Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/10/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
754 PM MDT THU OCT 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 PM MDT THU OCT 9 2014
RAIN IS DECREASING ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND NORTHEAST COLORADO.
RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWING THE BEST LIFT AND HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. STILL APPEARS THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH LIFT OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WITH THEM BEING MORE NUMEROUS TOWARDS THE SOUTH. WILL
KEEP HIGH POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND RATES WILL BE LIGHTER THAN EARLIER
TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 555 PM MDT THU OCT 9 2014
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS FALLING WEST OF I-25 AND
SOUTH OF I-70. BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...EXPECT THE
RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID EVENING...AT LEAST 8-9PM. THE HRRR
SUGGESTS THIS TOO. OTHER MODELS...SUCH AS THE NAM AND GFS...ARE
NOT PICKING UP ON THIS PRECIPITATION AND SHOW ALMOST NO
PRECIPITATION.
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE ROUGHLY A HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF INCH IN
AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. RAINFALL RATES
ARE GENERALLY ARE AROUND A QUARTER INCH PER HOUR. THERE ARE
EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT ARE PRODUCING QUICK BURSTS OF HEAVY
RAIN. IN THESE LOCATIONS...ONE HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE UP TO
0.40 OF AN INCH.
WILL UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS THROUGH AT LEAST MID EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU OCT 9 2014
NOT MUCH ADJUSTMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL TRACK OF THE STORM
SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CO TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST QG
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER WILL BE OVER SRN
COLORADO. THERE IS A DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AT THIS
TIME...WHICH IS NOT ONLY AFFECTING THE PALMER DIVIDE BUT THE
FOOTHILLS OF BOULDER AND LARIMER COUNTIES AS WELL. THE DIFFLUENT
FLOW AT 500 MB IS ALSO AIDING THIS SYSTEM. THE HRRR AS WELL AS THE
RUC KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING THROUGH 00Z IN ZONE 35...THEN THE FOCUS
FOR PCPN WILL BE OVER THE SRN PART OF THE CWA. THERE COULD BE SOME
MINOR ISSUES REGARDING FLOODING IN THE HIGH PARK BURN AREA THIS
AFTN IF THE STRONGER CONVECTION CAN MAINTAIN ITSELF. SO FAR THAT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE HAPPENING. SHOULD SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF CWA...WEST OF A LINE FROM CHEYENNE, WY TO
AKRON LINE...BUT LIMITED COVERAGE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LINE. THE
PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. IN AROUND
DENVER...THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE THE FOCUS SHIFTS MORE TO THE SOUTH. IN THE
MOUNTAINS...EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH VERY MOIST AMS WILL BENEFIT ZONE
34 THOSE MOST SO WL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 9 AM
FRIDAY MORNING. ON FRIDAY...THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY THE AFTN...WITH DRYING FM THE NORTH
AND WEST. THE AMS WILL REMAIN COOL WHICH WILL CAP TSTMS OVER THE
NERN PLAINS...EXCEPT MAYBE ZONES 41...46 AND 47.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU OCT 9 2014
...WET AND COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW...
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING LEAVING SOME RESIDUAL
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION AND SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP LIKELY
POPS AND CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH MOISTURE AND INCREASED
LAPSE RATES STILL ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY GETTING INTO THE UPPER 50S OVER
NE COLORADO. SATURDAY WILL SEE INCREASED UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW BRING
IN WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS BOUNCING BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.
SUNDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE OVER THE REGION WITH
AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT IN NW FLOW ALOFT. QG HAS GOOD VERTICAL
LIFT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WITH DECENT OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE FLOW
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING THAT WILL AID IN ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOWERS ABOVE 10000FT IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION JUST
BEFORE THE AFTERNOON INCREASING NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ALLOWING
FOR GOOD RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS OVER THE FRONT RANGE. WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS DECREASE TO BELOW 9000 FT ACCORDING TO VARIOUS MODELS
ALONG WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES SO THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS ALONG WITH
THE PALMER DIVIDE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY
WITH LOWER TEMPS IN THOSE AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR SUNDAY WITH LOWS JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID 30S.
ON MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE SE WITH MOISTURE
LINGERING IN THE MOUNTAINS KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE DOMINANT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE BRINGING DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 754 PM MDT THU OCT 9 2014
LOW CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS BELOW 6000 FEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
AND WILL OCCASIONALLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO AROUND 5 MILES. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH OUTFLOWS FROM SHOWERS DETERMINING WIND
DIRECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ034.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...MEIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
555 PM MDT THU OCT 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 555 PM MDT THU OCT 9 2014
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS FALLING WEST OF I-25 AND
SOUTH OF I-70. BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...EXPECT THE
RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID EVENING...AT LEAST 8-9PM. THE HRRR
SUGGESTS THIS TOO. OTHER MODELS...SUCH AS THE NAM AND GFS...ARE
NOT PICKING UP ON THIS PRECIPITATION AND SHOW ALMOST NO
PRECIPITATION.
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE ROUGHLY A HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF INCH IN
AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. RAINFALL RATES
ARE GENERALLY ARE AROUND A QUARTER INCH PER HOUR. THERE ARE
EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT ARE PRODUCING QUICK BURSTS OF HEAVY
RAIN. IN THESE LOCATIONS...ONE HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE UP TO
0.40 OF AN INCH.
WILL UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS THROUGH AT LEAST MID EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU OCT 9 2014
NOT MUCH ADJUSTMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL TRACK OF THE STORM
SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CO TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST QG
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER WILL BE OVER SRN
COLORADO. THERE IS A DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AT THIS
TIME...WHICH IS NOT ONLY AFFECTING THE PALMER DIVIDE BUT THE
FOOTHILLS OF BOULDER AND LARIMER COUNTIES AS WELL. THE DIFFLUENT
FLOW AT 500 MB IS ALSO AIDING THIS SYSTEM. THE HRRR AS WELL AS THE
RUC KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING THROUGH 00Z IN ZONE 35...THEN THE FOCUS
FOR PCPN WILL BE OVER THE SRN PART OF THE CWA. THERE COULD BE SOME
MINOR ISSUES REGARDING FLOODING IN THE HIGH PARK BURN AREA THIS
AFTN IF THE STRONGER CONVECTION CAN MAINTAIN ITSELF. SO FAR THAT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE HAPPENING. SHOULD SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF CWA...WEST OF A LINE FROM CHEYENNE, WY TO
AKRON LINE...BUT LIMITED COVERAGE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LINE. THE
PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. IN AROUND
DENVER...THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE THE FOCUS SHIFTS MORE TO THE SOUTH. IN THE
MOUNTAINS...EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH VERY MOIST AMS WILL BENEFIT ZONE
34 THOSE MOST SO WL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 9 AM
FRIDAY MORNING. ON FRIDAY...THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY THE AFTN...WITH DRYING FM THE NORTH
AND WEST. THE AMS WILL REMAIN COOL WHICH WILL CAP TSTMS OVER THE
NERN PLAINS...EXCEPT MAYBE ZONES 41...46 AND 47.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU OCT 9 2014
...WET AND COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW...
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING LEAVING SOME RESIDUAL
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION AND SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP LIKELY
POPS AND CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH MOISTURE AND INCREASED
LAPSE RATES STILL ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY GETTING INTO THE UPPER 50S OVER
NE COLORADO. SATURDAY WILL SEE INCREASED UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW BRING
IN WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS BOUNCING BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.
SUNDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE OVER THE REGION WITH
AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT IN NW FLOW ALOFT. QG HAS GOOD VERTICAL
LIFT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WITH DECENT OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE FLOW
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING THAT WILL AID IN ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOWERS ABOVE 10000FT IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION JUST
BEFORE THE AFTERNOON INCREASING NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ALLOWING
FOR GOOD RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS OVER THE FRONT RANGE. WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS DECREASE TO BELOW 9000 FT ACCORDING TO VARIOUS MODELS
ALONG WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES SO THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS ALONG WITH
THE PALMER DIVIDE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY
WITH LOWER TEMPS IN THOSE AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR SUNDAY WITH LOWS JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID 30S.
ON MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE SE WITH MOISTURE
LINGERING IN THE MOUNTAINS KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE DOMINANT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE BRINGING DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU OCT 9 2014
MVFR VSBYS...WITH MVFR/IFR CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. COULD SEE ISOLD T AT CENTENNIAL...BUT WL STICK
WITH PREVAILING LGT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE TAFS.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST BY FRIDAY AFTN...BUT LINGERING ILS/MVFR CIGS STILL
EXPECTED IN THE AFTN.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ034.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...COOPER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1132 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
UPDATED GRIDS MAINLY TO ADJUST POPS FOR THU. 12Z NAM IS A BIT
FASTER BRINGING IN PRECIP TOMORROW MORNING...ALSO HAS A BIT MORE
QPF AND IS COLDER FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THU. WILL DEAL WITH
THE IMPACTS IN THE AFTERNOON UPDATE. ROSE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
EXTENSIVE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY AS
MOISTURE FROM THE REMAINS OF SIMON SOUTH OF CA CONTINUES TO GET PICK
UP BY THE BROAD WESTERN U.S.UPPER TROF AND ADVECTED TO THE
NORTHEASTWARD. HAVE TO TO LOOK DOWN TO SOUTHERN AZ TO FIND MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THE CURRENT HOUR...AND THIS LOOKS RATHER
LIGHT IN AREA RADARS.
FOR TODAY...EXPECT TO SEE MORE OF THE SAME WITH CONTINUED HIGH
CLOUDINESS SPREADING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS MAY SERVE TO TAKE
A COUPLE DEGREES OFF TEMPERATURES TODAY...PARTICULARLY OUT WEST
WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL GET THICKER THROUGH THE DAY. NOT TOO
ENTHUSED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP
SATURATED LAYER VERY HIGH BASED. IN FACT...HIGH RES MODELS...HRRR
AND RAP KEEP FORECAST AREA PRECIPITATION FREE DURING THE DAY
TODAY...AND THIS COULD BE THE MORE ACCURATE SOLN. HOWEVER...MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THICKENING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY OUT
WEST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...AND NAM12 AND NSSL 4K WRF ALONG
WITH GFS SHOW SOME SPOTTY POPS THIS AFTERNOON. REMOVED POPS UNTIL
AFTER 18Z...THEN STARTED INTRODUCING THEM INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...A FEW OF WHICH MAY SPREAD OVER INTO THE
SOUTHEAST MTS TOWARDS 00Z. SHOWERS SHOULD BE HIGH BASED...AND NOT
TOO SURE THAT THERE WILL BE ANY THUNDER TODAY AS INSTABILITY LOOKS
RATHER MEAGER. HAVE LEFT ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT
THIS MAY BE PRETTY LOCALIZED AND MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG THE
CONTDVD.
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. REMAINS OF SIMON GET PICKED UP AND LIFTED
TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS NM AS THE TROF ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
ADVANCES TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS REGION TOWARDS THURS MORNING. GFS
LOOKS A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF OVERNIGHT AS IT IS THE MOST
GUNG HO SPREADING IT EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANGRES TOWARDS
12Z. ECMWF AND NAM12 ARE A LITTLE MORE RESERVED IN KEEPING THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION LONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. CAN`T RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER MOVING OFF INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT...AND
WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR BEGINNING
AROUND 09Z. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT LOOK FAIRLY
LIGHT. OF COURSE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE WEST FORK BURN COMPLEX FOR
RAINFALL...BUT THINK THAT RAINFALL RATES SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW
FLOODING THRESHOLDS. -KT
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
NOT MANY ADJUSTMENTS MADE DURING THE LONGER TERM WITH MAIN
METEOROLOGICAL ISSUE BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM REMNANTS OF SIMON FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES DURING THE LONGER TERM INCLUDE
TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOWERING SNOW LEVELS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
FORECAST MODELS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE
STILL PROJECTED TO NEAR ONE INCH AT TIMES FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS LATEST COMPUTER SIMULATIONS PLACE CLOSED UPPER
LOW/REMNANTS OF SIMON OVER FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA AT 12Z
THURSDAY...WITH SYSTEM PUSHING INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY 21Z
THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT BY 00Z
SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD BE NOTED OVER PRIMARILY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA DURING
THIS TIME-FRAME.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES AS WELL AS HIGHER ELEVATION ACCUMULATING
SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...IN ADDITION TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
PROJECT THAT TOTAL 24 TO 36 HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF EXCEEDING ONE INCH(WITH LOCALLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE)...ESPECIALLY OVER FAVORED EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST DISTRICT. AREA BURN SCARS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY
FOR HYDRO/FLASH FLOODING ISSUES. IN ADDITION...HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WILL ALSO BE MONITORED FOR HEAVIER SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL
DURING THE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TIME-FRAME.
ALSO...AS DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...METEOROLOGICAL
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT POTENTIAL UPPER SYSTEM IMPACTING
SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THIS
SYSTEM HAVING THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING LOWERING SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS
TIME-FRAME. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE FROM LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
IT APPEARS THAT BELOW SEASONAL MID-OCTOBER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE NOTED FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WARMER
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY NEXT WEEK THANKS TO BASICALLY DRY ZONAL
UPPER FLOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO...ESPECIALLY BY NEXT
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
MAIN AVN CONCERN IS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA...SPREADING FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS TONIGHT TO THE I-25
CORRIDOR THURSDAY MORNING...AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS CIGS FALL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF IFR-LIFR CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL GENERALLY BE MODERATE AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ISOLATED...SO THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE EXTENDED LOW
CIGS AND OCCASIONALLY LOWER VIS. FZG LEVELS WILL FALL TO ABOUT
10K FEET THU AFTERNOON. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
953 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
UPDATED GRIDS MAINLY TO ADJUST POPS FOR THU. 12Z NAM IS A BIT
FASTER BRINGING IN PRECIP TOMORROW MORNING...ALSO HAS A BIT MORE
QPF AND IS COLDER FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THU. WILL DEAL WITH
THE IMPACTS IN THE AFTERNOON UPDATE. ROSE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
EXTENSIVE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY AS
MOISTURE FROM THE REMAINS OF SIMON SOUTH OF CA CONTINUES TO GET PICK
UP BY THE BROAD WESTERN U.S.UPPER TROF AND ADVECTED TO THE
NORTHEASTWARD. HAVE TO TO LOOK DOWN TO SOUTHERN AZ TO FIND MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THE CURRENT HOUR...AND THIS LOOKS RATHER
LIGHT IN AREA RADARS.
FOR TODAY...EXPECT TO SEE MORE OF THE SAME WITH CONTINUED HIGH
CLOUDINESS SPREADING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS MAY SERVE TO TAKE
A COUPLE DEGREES OFF TEMPERATURES TODAY...PARTICULARLY OUT WEST
WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL GET THICKER THROUGH THE DAY. NOT TOO
ENTHUSED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP
SATURATED LAYER VERY HIGH BASED. IN FACT...HIGH RES MODELS...HRRR
AND RAP KEEP FORECAST AREA PRECIPITATION FREE DURING THE DAY
TODAY...AND THIS COULD BE THE MORE ACCURATE SOLN. HOWEVER...MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THICKENING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY OUT
WEST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...AND NAM12 AND NSSL 4K WRF ALONG
WITH GFS SHOW SOME SPOTTY POPS THIS AFTERNOON. REMOVED POPS UNTIL
AFTER 18Z...THEN STARTED INTRODUCING THEM INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...A FEW OF WHICH MAY SPREAD OVER INTO THE
SOUTHEAST MTS TOWARDS 00Z. SHOWERS SHOULD BE HIGH BASED...AND NOT
TOO SURE THAT THERE WILL BE ANY THUNDER TODAY AS INSTABILITY LOOKS
RATHER MEAGER. HAVE LEFT ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT
THIS MAY BE PRETTY LOCALIZED AND MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG THE
CONTDVD.
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. REMAINS OF SIMON GET PICKED UP AND LIFTED
TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS NM AS THE TROF ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
ADVANCES TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS REGION TOWARDS THURS MORNING. GFS
LOOKS A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF OVERNIGHT AS IT IS THE MOST
GUNG HO SPREADING IT EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANGRES TOWARDS
12Z. ECMWF AND NAM12 ARE A LITTLE MORE RESERVED IN KEEPING THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION LONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. CAN`T RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER MOVING OFF INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT...AND
WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR BEGINNING
AROUND 09Z. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT LOOK FAIRLY
LIGHT. OF COURSE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE WEST FORK BURN COMPLEX FOR
RAINFALL...BUT THINK THAT RAINFALL RATES SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW
FLOODING THRESHOLDS. -KT
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
NOT MANY ADJUSTMENTS MADE DURING THE LONGER TERM WITH MAIN
METEOROLOGICAL ISSUE BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM REMNANTS OF SIMON FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES DURING THE LONGER TERM INCLUDE
TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOWERING SNOW LEVELS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
FORECAST MODELS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE
STILL PROJECTED TO NEAR ONE INCH AT TIMES FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS LATEST COMPUTER SIMULATIONS PLACE CLOSED UPPER
LOW/REMNANTS OF SIMON OVER FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA AT 12Z
THURSDAY...WITH SYSTEM PUSHING INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY 21Z
THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT BY 00Z
SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD BE NOTED OVER PRIMARILY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA DURING
THIS TIME-FRAME.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES AS WELL AS HIGHER ELEVATION ACCUMULATING
SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...IN ADDITION TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
PROJECT THAT TOTAL 24 TO 36 HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF EXCEEDING ONE INCH(WITH LOCALLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE)...ESPECIALLY OVER FAVORED EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST DISTRICT. AREA BURN SCARS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY
FOR HYDRO/FLASH FLOODING ISSUES. IN ADDITION...HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WILL ALSO BE MONITORED FOR HEAVIER SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL
DURING THE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TIME-FRAME.
ALSO...AS DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...METEOROLOGICAL
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT POTENTIAL UPPER SYSTEM IMPACTING
SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THIS
SYSTEM HAVING THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING LOWERING SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS
TIME-FRAME. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE FROM LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
IT APPEARS THAT BELOW SEASONAL MID-OCTOBER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE NOTED FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WARMER
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY NEXT WEEK THANKS TO BASICALLY DRY ZONAL
UPPER FLOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO...ESPECIALLY BY NEXT
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT BASES OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO LOWER
THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...MAINLY ALONG THE
CONTDVD...THOUGH CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. INCREASING MOISTURE
TONIGHT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS TOWARDS 12Z. KALS MAY SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER 09Z WITH
VFR CIGS. KCOS AND KPUB WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY UNTIL LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
517 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
EXTENSIVE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY AS
MOISTURE FROM THE REMAINS OF SIMON SOUTH OF CA CONTINUES TO GET PICK
UP BY THE BROAD WESTERN U.S.UPPER TROF AND ADVECTED TO THE
NORTHEASTWARD. HAVE TO TO LOOK DOWN TO SOUTHERN AZ TO FIND MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THE CURRENT HOUR...AND THIS LOOKS RATHER
LIGHT IN AREA RADARS.
FOR TODAY...EXPECT TO SEE MORE OF THE SAME WITH CONTINUED HIGH
CLOUDINESS SPREADING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS MAY SERVE TO TAKE
A COUPLE DEGREES OFF TEMPERATURES TODAY...PARTICULARLY OUT WEST
WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL GET THICKER THROUGH THE DAY. NOT TOO
ENTHUSED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP
SATURATED LAYER VERY HIGH BASED. IN FACT...HIGH RES MODELS...HRRR
AND RAP KEEP FORECAST AREA PRECIPITATION FREE DURING THE DAY
TODAY...AND THIS COULD BE THE MORE ACCURATE SOLN. HOWEVER...MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THICKENING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY OUT
WEST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...AND NAM12 AND NSSL 4K WRF ALONG
WITH GFS SHOW SOME SPOTTY POPS THIS AFTERNOON. REMOVED POPS UNTIL
AFTER 18Z...THEN STARTED INTRODUCING THEM INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...A FEW OF WHICH MAY SPREAD OVER INTO THE
SOUTHEAST MTS TOWARDS 00Z. SHOWERS SHOULD BE HIGH BASED...AND NOT
TOO SURE THAT THERE WILL BE ANY THUNDER TODAY AS INSTABILITY LOOKS
RATHER MEAGER. HAVE LEFT ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT
THIS MAY BE PRETTY LOCALIZED AND MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG THE
CONTDVD.
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. REMAINS OF SIMON GET PICKED UP AND LIFTED
TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS NM AS THE TROF ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
ADVANCES TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS REGION TOWARDS THURS MORNING. GFS
LOOKS A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF OVERNIGHT AS IT IS THE MOST
GUNG HO SPREADING IT EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANGRES TOWARDS
12Z. ECMWF AND NAM12 ARE A LITTLE MORE RESERVED IN KEEPING THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION LONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. CAN`T RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER MOVING OFF INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT...AND
WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR BEGINNING
AROUND 09Z. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT LOOK FAIRLY
LIGHT. OF COURSE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE WEST FORK BURN COMPLEX FOR
RAINFALL...BUT THINK THAT RAINFALL RATES SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW
FLOODING THRESHOLDS. -KT
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
NOT MANY ADJUSTMENTS MADE DURING THE LONGER TERM WITH MAIN
METEOROLOGICAL ISSUE BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM REMNANTS OF SIMON FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES DURING THE LONGER TERM INCLUDE
TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOWERING SNOW LEVELS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
FORECAST MODELS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE
STILL PROJECTED TO NEAR ONE INCH AT TIMES FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS LATEST COMPUTER SIMULATIONS PLACE CLOSED UPPER
LOW/REMNANTS OF SIMON OVER FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA AT 12Z
THURSDAY...WITH SYSTEM PUSHING INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY 21Z
THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT BY 00Z
SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD BE NOTED OVER PRIMARILY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA DURING
THIS TIME-FRAME.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES AS WELL AS HIGHER ELEVATION ACCUMULATING
SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...IN ADDITION TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
PROJECT THAT TOTAL 24 TO 36 HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF EXCEEDING ONE INCH(WITH LOCALLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE)...ESPECIALLY OVER FAVORED EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST DISTRICT. AREA BURN SCARS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY
FOR HYDRO/FLASH FLOODING ISSUES. IN ADDITION...HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WILL ALSO BE MONITORED FOR HEAVIER SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL
DURING THE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TIME-FRAME.
ALSO...AS DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...METEOROLOGICAL
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT POTENTIAL UPPER SYSTEM IMPACTING
SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THIS
SYSTEM HAVING THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING LOWERING SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS
TIME-FRAME. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE FROM LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
IT APPEARS THAT BELOW SEASONAL MID-OCTOBER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE NOTED FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WARMER
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY NEXT WEEK THANKS TO BASICALLY DRY ZONAL
UPPER FLOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO...ESPECIALLY BY NEXT
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT BASES OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO LOWER
THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...MAINLY ALONG THE
CONTDVD...THOUGH CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. INCREASING MOISTURE
TONIGHT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS TOWARDS 12Z. KALS MAY SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER 09Z WITH
VFR CIGS. KCOS AND KPUB WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY UNTIL LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
346 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL HEAVY SHOWERS...WITH A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE TODAY AND THURSDAY.
WHILE OVERALL COOL AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...DREARY CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A LOW PASSES SOUTH
OF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. MILDER CONDITIONS RETURN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IT/S A TALE OF TWO FOCI FOR LIFT THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FIRST...IS A VIGOROUS UPPER LVL VORT MAX THAT WILL BE MOVING
CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE NY/PA BORDER THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH AN
ATTENDANT WEAKENED OCCLUSION. THIS HAS BEEN THE TRIGGER FORE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND BANDS OF MODERATE RAINFALL WHICH ARE
CURRENTLY EFFECTING ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND...AND WHICH WILL
CONTINUE A SLOW E-NE PROGRESSION AS THE SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH
INTO THE MORNING. THE SECOND...IS A NEAR STACKED JET. THE LLJ
FEATURE /VAD WIND PROFILES ALREADY SHOWING 50 KT AT 2KFT ON THE
OKX RADAR/ HAS BEEN CONTINUALLY GENERATING CONVECTION ALONG ITS
NOSE JUST OFFSHORE BETWEEN NJ AND LOCATED IN THE RIGHT-EQUATORWARD
REGION OF THE UPPER LVL JET SIGNALING PLENTY OF VENTING ALOFT.
THEREFORE...WILL HAVE TO WATCH BOTH AREAS OF RAINFALL THROUGH THIS
MORNING AS MESOSCALE MODELS /AND LOCAL LAPS CONFIRMS/ POCKET OF
700 AND 1000 J/KG OF SB AND MU CAPE RESPECTIVELY IN A POCKET FROM
THE CONVECTION S OF LONG ISLAND INTO ERN CT/RI AND SE MA. IN
FACT...MODEST CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEEN TRIGGERED IN
VICINITY OF THE OFFICE OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. IN THIS SAME
REGION...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SHEAR PROFILES CONTINUE TO INDICATE
200-300 M2/S2 OF SR HELICITY. POPS ARE ADJUSTED TOWARD LATEST
MESO-SCALE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE WRF AND HRRR WHICH ARE DOING A
FAIR JOB AT HANDLING THE QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES.
GIVEN ALL OF THIS...THE THREAT REMAINS THE SAME THIS
MORNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS. STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN MIXING DOWN WITH
THIS RAINFALL AS WELL AS THE LLJ BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...AND A BRIEF TORNADO/WATERSPOUT IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHERE
INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. IN FACT SRN NJ OFFICE HAS ALREADY
ISSUED A TOR THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE TIMING...EXPECT THIS THREAT
TO MOVE THROUGH MAINLY 09Z-013Z OR SO.
AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH AND DRY SLOT IS ALLOWED TO TAKE
OVER ALOFT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
RESURGENCE IN SW-W WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20-30 MPH AT TIMES BUT
EXPECT RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES SAVE FOR SOME COLD ADVECTIVE CU
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL STILL BE MILD DESPITE THIS COLD
ADVECTION AS H85 TEMPS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO FALL FOLLOWING THE
COLD FROPA. THEREFORE...EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOW-MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO SLOWLY NOSE IN FROM THE SW. HOWEVER AS ROBUST
LOW PRES CONTINUES TO SLIDE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...EXPECT
SOME SOME LEFTOVER ALTO-CU AND CI...AS WELL AS A MODERATE PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL AS A COLDER AIRMASS MOVES IN...BUT THE FLOW/CLOUDS WILL
PREVENT FULL DECOUPLING. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ARE LIKELY TO
PREVAIL...AND EVEN IF SOME TEMPS APPROACH THE MID-UPPER 30S THE
LEFTOVER LIGHT BREEZE WILL MITIGATE ANY POTENTIAL FROST
DEVELOPMENT.
THU...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO MOVE SLIGHTLY TO THE E. THEREFORE...EXPECT
MAINLY DRY WX ONCE AGAIN. PRES GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE AS WELL
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH IN...SO EXPECT ANOTHER RELATIVELY
BREEZY DAY WITH WIND GUSTS 20-25 MPH AT TIMES. H85 TEMPS +2 TO +4C
SHOULD BE TAPPED...BUT THIS WOULD ONLY SUGGEST HIGHS THE LOW-MID
60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...
- COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS SURROUND A COASTAL LOW ANTICIPATED AROUND
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE
REGION
- MILD CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO A SWEEPING COLD FRONT AND
ACTIVE WEATHER AROUND MIDWEEK
*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...
CONTINUED ENSEMBLE MEMBER AGREEMENT OF A STRONGLY -AO AND MODESTLY
-NAO PARENT TO A +PNA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AMPLIFIED ANOMALOUS AND
BLOCKY PATTERN RESULTS IN A GENERALIZED PATTERN OF W CONUS RIDGING
WITH CONSEQUENTIAL DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING.
EVALUATING PRESENT SYNOPTICS...PRESENT CENTRAL CANADA H5 CLOSED LOW
IS SUBSEQUENTLY HELD UP ACROSS THE E MARITIMES BY THE BEGINNING OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH THE FLAT-BASE OF WHICH PACIFIC-ORIGIN
IMPULSES MIGRATE WITH THE MARITIME FLOW. OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS OF
PERIODS OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER SURROUND AN ANTICIPATED COASTAL LOW
CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG A STALLED FRONT S OF NEW ENGLAND.
DISCREPANCIES ABOUND AMONG DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS IN HANDLING
N- AND S-STREAM ENERGY...AS TO WHETHER AND HOW THEY INTERACT TOWARDS
THE INVOCATION OF THE COASTAL LOW...NEVERTHELESS FEEL DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION ACROSS DECENT BAROCLINICITY SHOULD RESULT IN A
MODEST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE S-COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND...SO EXPECT DULL DREARY WET WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
EARLY-HALF OF SATURDAY. AMOUNTS COULD BE CONSIDERABLE DEPENDENT ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND USURPING OF DECENT MOISTURE FROM THE SW.
ONCE AGAIN...JUST THE SLIGHTEST WOBBLE OF THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF
THE LOW MAKES A CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCE CONCERNING BOTH AMOUNTS AND
N-EDGE OF ANTICIPATED RAIN SHIELD.
SIGNALS OF ANOMALOUS CENTRAL CONUS TROUGHING CONTINUE FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AMPLIFIED RIDGING DOWNSTREAM YIELDS AN ENHANCEMENT OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL HIGH OFF THE SE-CONUS. INITIAL SURGE OF WARM-MOIST AIR N
PARENT WITH A WARM-FRONTAL BOUNDARY YIELDS WET-WEATHER CHANCES
CENTERED AROUND MONDAY. MILD-HUMID CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED WITH THE
WARM-SECTOR INTO MIDWEEK PRIOR TO THE MAIN COLD FRONT AND LIKELY
ACTIVE WEATHER ALONG AND AHEAD. NO CERTAINTY ON TIMING AND OUTCOMES
AS DESCRIBED ABOVE WHICH WERE DERIVED FROM 07.12Z ECMWF/ECENS...
THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD WITHIN THE 50-INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS
THAT COMPRISE THE ECENS. BUT CERTAIN EARLY-WEEK WARM WEATHER WILL BE
QUITE THE FLOP FROM THE COOLER WEATHER ANTICIPATED LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THE THE WEEKEND.
FAVOR THE SLOWER-AMPLIFIED ECMWF AND ECENS SOLUTIONS AS AGREED UPON
BY WPC WHICH HAVE BEEN NOTED TO HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AS OF LATE. AM
STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON THE LESS-AMPLIFIED PATTERN ADVERTISED BY THE
GFS/GEFS...THOUGH ITS TELECONNECTION FORECASTS HAVE BEEN POOR AS OF
LATE...FORECASTING A MAINLY POSITIVE TO NEAR-NEUTRAL AO/NAO TREND
INTO EARLY OCTOBER JUST LAST WEEK WHEN IT HAS BEEN ANYTHING BUT. AN
OVERALL MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST...WITH GREATEST CONFIDENCE
CENTERED ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...
THROUGH 15Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.
BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z FROM SW
TO NE. PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
ARE LIKELY AS THIS BAND OF SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. ALSO...WINDS MAY
GUST OVER 30 KT AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN HEAVIER RAIN OR ANY
T-STORMS.
AFTER 15Z TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR EVERYWHERE 15Z THROUGH MID DAY.
W-SW WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OF 25-30 KT
LIKELY...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
TOMORROW...
MAINLY VFR. W WIND GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.
KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
TIMING.
KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
TIMING.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BREEZY W-
WINDS.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MIX OF MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS. WORST ALONG THE S-COAST IN PROXIMITY TO AN OFFSHORE
COASTAL LOW. WINDS TURNING E PRIOR TO BACKING W/NW. BREEZIEST OF
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTLINES.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NE
FLOW VEERS E/SE...BECOMING VRB AT TIMES. CONCERN OVER IFR-LIFR FOG
IMPACTS FOR INTERIOR TERMINALS DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS TOWARDS
MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20-25 KT THIS
MORNING...EXCEPT IN AREAS OF SHOWERS WHERE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY
APPROACH GALE FORCE AT TIMES. THE SHOWERS CLEAR THE WATERS
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W-SW BY THE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TO GUST 25-30 KT AT TIMES INTO
TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KT DURING THE DAY ON THU.
THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR WINDS ALONE.
HOWEVER...BUILDING SWELLS ARE LIKELY AS WELL...REACHING 5-8 FT ON
THE OCEAN WATERS. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE
LATER HALF OF THE DAY ON THU.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WHILE WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY OUT OF THE W WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS...WAVES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET. GOOD BOATING WEATHER.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COASTAL LOW SWEEPS
W-E S OF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. WINDS TURNING OUT OF THE E THEN
BACKING N/NW WITH LOW PASSAGE. GUSTS REMAINING BELOW 20 KTS WITH THE
PRESENT FORECAST WHILE SEAS REMAIN JUST BELOW 5 FEET.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. N/NE FLOW
VEERS E/SE AS HIGH PRESSURE SWEEPS THE NE-CONUS. SEAS FORECAST TO
REMAIN BELOW 5-FEET. GOOD BOATING WEATHER.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
MORNING/S HIGH TIDE ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 7 AND 9 AM ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES AS SURGE
VALUES OF 0.5-1.0 FEET ARE LIKELY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BUILDING
SWELLS OFFSHORE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ020.
NH...NONE.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ002-
004>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DOODY/SIPPRELL
MARINE...DOODY/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
320 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS
07Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
ARRIVING IN A RIDGED PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BC COASTLINE
BEFORE DIVING BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE
TROUGHING COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW CAN BE SEEN CLEARLY BY ITS
POST PASSAGE DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IN WV IMAGERY PIVOTING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES AND FORCING A SWATH OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
ITS AXIS. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...WE FIND OUR REGION AT THE BASE OF
THIS LONGWAVE EASTERN TROUGH WITHIN A ZONE OF UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS
BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE EAST OF THE FL PENINSULA...AND ANOTHER
DEFINED RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...THIS WESTERN GULF RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD...ERODING THE
CURRENT WEAKNESS IN THE PATTERN AND BECOMING THE DOMINANT PLAYER IN
OUR FORECAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OFF THE GA/NE FLORIDA COAST
BACK ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR TO OUR NORTH. THIS POSITION PUTS OUR
FORECAST AREA WITHIN A LIGHT EASTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW. REGIONAL RADARS
SHOW QUIET CONDITIONS OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
TODAY...
LONGWAVE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY EARLY IN THE DAY
RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. WEAKNESS IN
THE PATTERN MENTIONED ABOVE THAT WAS OVER OUR REGION DURING TUESDAY
AND LIKELY HELPED THE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE SCT STORMS LOOKS TO
MIGRATE A BIT TO THE WEST TO A POSITION MORE OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR NORTH SHOULD STAY PUT AND
KEEP A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE GRADIENT IS
ON THE WEAK SIDE...SO SHOULD SEE A FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION
DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST...OR AT LEAST A SLACKENING OF THE WINDS NEAR
THE COAST/COASTAL WATERS. EITHER WAY...A ZONE OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE/FOCUS IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD SET UP ALONG THE I-75
CORRIDOR. DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE QUITE THE DEGREE OF SCT STORMS
OBSERVED ON TUESDAY...BUT CAN NOT REMOVE RAIN CHANCES FROM THE
FORECAST EITHER AFTER EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. COLUMN MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE CERTAINLY MOST FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION
FROM AROUND BROOKSVILLE AREA SOUTHWARD...WITH THE GFS/NAM BOTH
SHOWING A MUCH DEEPER LAYER OF DRY AIR ALOFT FOR CITRUS/LEVY
COUNTIES LATER TODAY. BASED ON EVERYTHING ABOVE WILL MENTION SCT
POPS FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND
ISOLATED/WDLY SCT POPS NORTHWARD TO AROUND CRYSTAL RIVER...AND ALSO
ACROSS THE INTERIOR ZONES WHERE LOW LEVEL FOCUS WILL NOT BE ENHANCED
BY THE SEA-BREEZE. WE ARE STARTING TO GET TO THAT TIME OF YEAR WHERE
WE START TO NEED A LITTLE BIT OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT TO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEA-BREEZE STORMS. GOING TO GET HARDER AND HARDER IN
THE COMING FEW WEEKS FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO GENERATE THIS TYPE OF
PULSE CONVECTION ON A PURELY THERMODYNAMIC BASIS. IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES...SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH UP TO WITHIN A
DEGREE OR 2 EITHER SIDE OF 90 AT MOST LOCATIONS.
TONIGHT...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE OVER OUR REGION WHILE AT THE
SURFACE...RIDGING TO OUR NORTH IS REINFORCED BY CONTINENTAL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS. ANY LINGERING
EVENING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF SUNSET AND
RESULT IN A MOSTLY DRY AND QUIET NIGHT IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER.
LOW TEMPERATURES APPEAR SEASONABLE WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH OF
TAMPA BAY...AND MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70 FURTHER SOUTH.
THURSDAY...
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND EASTERN GULF. GOOD AGREEMENT IN AN ENHANCEMENT/EXPANSION OF THE
DRY AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. X-SECTION / TIME HEIGHT FORECASTS DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION...AS A RESULT OF THESE UNFAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT. IF WE ARE GOING TO SEE ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS...WHERE CURRENT
GFS FORECAST DOES NOT BRING IN THE DRIEST AIR ALOFT UNTIL THE
EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY LOOK TO AGAIN BE A BIT
ABOVE AVERAGE WITH MANY LOCATIONS REACHING WITHIN A DEGREE OR 2 OF
90.
HAVE A GREAT WEDNESDAY EVERYONE!
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS GLOBAL MODELS
REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 EACH
DAY. DRY AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESULT
IN VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO PULL AWAY ON
SUNDAY...BUT STILL EXPECTING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
STORMS...AND MAINLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND INTERIOR ZONES.
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE TAKING PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE DIGS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NATIONS MID-SECTION
RESULTING IN THE WEAKENING OF OUR DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. CONFIDENCE IN THE SECOND PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS
MUCH LOWER AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH BOTH THE DEPTH AND TIMING OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE ECMWF AND BRING HIGHER MOISTURE IN MORE RAPIDLY ON MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
ITS TOO EARLY TO SAY FOR SURE HOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL EVOLVE.
THE GFS SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. THE ECMWF HAS A DEEPER
TROUGH WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
A POTENTIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST
WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND SHOW BEST RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR
NORTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SOME DRYING...BUT VERY LITTLE
COOLING FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PATCHY MVFR
FOG AS WE HEAD TOWARD DAWN AT THE MORE FOG PRONE LOCATIONS...HOWEVER
THE PRESENCE OF THE SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUD CANOPY SHOULD LIMIT THE
EXTENT OF THE FOG. GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
DAYLIGHT AND EVENING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. DO EXPECT A FEW SCT SHOWERS
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE TERMINALS AROUND 30%.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST WATERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS HIGH POSITION WILL KEEP A GENERAL
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. WINDS MAY SLACKEN NEARSHORE OR BRIEFLY TURN
ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK
SEA-BREEZES...BUT EXPECT THE FLOW TO QUICKLY TURN BACK FROM THE EAST
AFTER SUNSET EACH EVENING. WINDS AT TIMES WILL APPROACH CAUTIONARY
LEVELS TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE
SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION WITH A GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PENINSULA. WINDS
MAY BRIEFLY SLACKEN OR TURN ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOP
OF A WEAK SEA-BREEZE...BUT THEN RETURN TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT AT NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS...
HOWEVER NO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE FOG IS ANTICIPATED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 90 72 91 72 / 30 20 10 10
FMY 91 72 91 71 / 30 10 20 10
GIF 90 70 90 70 / 20 10 0 0
SRQ 88 71 90 71 / 30 20 10 10
BKV 91 64 92 64 / 30 20 10 10
SPG 88 76 90 73 / 30 20 10 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...JILLSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
519 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS FOR THE WEEKEND...WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH FLOW BECOMING
MORE ZONAL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH IN THE UPSTATE. COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NC WILL BE
MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED BY AROUND 06Z AT
CAE. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR INDICATING SCATTERED CONVECTION IN
NORTHERN AL AND NORTHERN GA. LATEST NAM BUFKIT SHOWING MID-LEVEL
CAPPING TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING. HRRR 18Z RUN SHOWING LITTLE IF
ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WHILE SPC WRF 12Z
RUN SHOWING ONLY ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME WILL CONTINUE ONGOING FORECAST WITH POPS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT...NAM/SREF SUGGEST MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SO
FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MOS
CONSENSUS...ALTHOUGH WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY
WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL STALL TO OUR NORTH
ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER. MODELS HAVE BOTH BEEN TRENDING TOWARD WARMER
MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND LOWER POPS SO WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT LOW IMPACT THREAT FOR TERMINALS.
WINDS WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS...A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. LAMP GUIDANCE AND
MET MOS SUGGEST SOME FOG POSSIBLE AT AGS/OGB BUT EXPECT SOME WIND
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEHIND FRONT SO WILL GO WITH A VFR FORECAST
THROUGH PERIOD.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
337 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
JUST AS SHORT TERM MODELS HAD BEEN PROJECTING...INSTABILITY AXIS
PER SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS SET UP FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH WEST
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THEN THROUGH MACON. THIS AXIS IS CHARACTERIZED
BY CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2500 J/KG AND 3000 J/KG AND HAS BEEN
SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FOLLOWING THE BOUNDARY THAT WAS SPAWNED
FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION. SHORT TERM REFLECTIVITY MODELS HAVE
REALLY BACKED OFF ON POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
CENTRAL GEORGIA LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE HRRR ONLY SHOWING
HINTS OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW. DESPITE THIS...STICKING WITH LOW
END CHANCE IN THE GRIDS GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY AXIS AS
WELL AS BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD ACT AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM AFTER
21Z. ONLY ITEM MISSING IS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND IN FACT WE ARE
IN AN AREA OF GENERALLY DOWNWARD MOTION THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE
OF MORNING DISTURBANCE BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE NEUTRAL IN NATURE BY
THIS EVENING.
LESS MOISTURE NOTED IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR TONIGHT SO MODELS NOT
PEGGING NEAR AS MUCH ON LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL. THERE IS SOME GROUND
MOISTURE MODELS ARE TRYING TO RESOLVE SO THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE
PATCHY FOG TO DEAL WITH OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
TWO MORE DISTURBANCES IN STORE FOR THURSDAY...THE FIRST LOOKS TO
BE IN THE MORNING AND REMAINING LARGELY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SO EXPECTING LIMITED IMPACTS FROM THAT ONE. THE SECOND MOVES
THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND SPAN MOST OF THE STATE PER THE GFS SO
A LITTLE BETTER CHANCES WITH THAT ONE ALTHOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY AT BEST.
DEESE
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED STARTS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BUT WITH DEEPENING
SHORTWAVE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...SPREADING PACIFIC TROPICAL
MOISTURE EAST TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. LOOKS LIKE A
PROLONGED WET PERIOD TO OUR NORTH BUT FOR NOW ONLY MINOR IMPACTS
IN NORTH GEORGIA. OVER THE WEEKEND...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES SLIDES EAST AND DAMS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HARD TO TELL
AT THIS POINT HOW FAR SOUTH THAT DAMMING WILL EXTEND BUT IT COULD
ACTUALLY BE KIND OF COOL AND CLOUDY ON SUNDAY WITH THE HYBRID
DAMMING. GFS A LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE FOR THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEK...
TRENDING A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF BUT STILL NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG. ECMWF CONTINUES TO PUSH A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH A STRONG FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS NOT AS STRONG AND QUITE A BIT FASTER...
WITH THE FRONT PROGGED TO AFFECT US MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY SO NO CHANGES TO THAT PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED AT THIS TIME. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO 4TH AND 5TH PERIODS TO
REFRESH WITH NEW DATA. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
TDP
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2014/
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST TRENDS AS THE LATEST
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUN REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW STARTS OUT FAIRLY FLAT
AND REMAINS SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
TO SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD
CONCERNING THE DEPTH AND SHARPNESS OF THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF
THE PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER BOTH SHOW OUR REGION
COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WITH GEORGIA JUST SOUTH OF THE MORE ACTIVE
WESTERLY FLOW...BOTH MODELS KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EVEN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREAD INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA...
BETTER CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH.
MODEL INSTABILITY VARIES SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT EACH DAY
SHOWS AT LEAST MARGINAL VALUES UNTIL AROUND WEDNESDAY SO I HAVE KEPT
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
20
&&
AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
BOUNDARY THAT FORMED IN THE WAKE OF NORTH GEORGIA THUNDERSTORMS
NOW PRODUCING A LINE OF MVFR CIGS OVER WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
NOW AFFECTING THE ATL TERMINAL. THIS WILL REQUIRE A SHORT TERM
TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE REMAINING ALT AREA TERMINALS. SHRA POSSIBLE FOR MCN AND CSG
THIS EVENING AND HAVE INCLUDE TEMPO THERE BUT LEFT OUT TSRA FOR
NOW. OTHERWISE...VFR FORECAST IN STORE BUT ADDITIONAL STORMS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TSRA THREAT FOR THE SOUTH.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 58 85 61 82 / 10 5 20 20
ATLANTA 65 84 65 82 / 20 30 20 20
BLAIRSVILLE 53 78 56 78 / 5 20 20 30
CARTERSVILLE 58 86 61 83 / 10 20 20 30
COLUMBUS 66 89 65 87 / 30 5 10 10
GAINESVILLE 60 82 62 80 / 10 20 20 30
MACON 63 88 64 86 / 30 20 40 10
ROME 58 86 60 84 / 20 30 20 30
PEACHTREE CITY 59 85 60 83 / 20 30 30 20
VIDALIA 67 89 67 86 / 30 5 10 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
123 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2014
.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 721 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014/
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE CWFA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HI-RES MODELS HAVENT INITIALIZED THE PRECIP CURRENTLY
APPROACHING NW GA VERY WELL. THE HRRR DOES PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN GA NEAR 12Z TOMORROW...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ON
THIS SOLUTION. SO...WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA. A SERIES OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE TROUGH IS SLOWLY PUSHING THE TROUGH
EASTWARD. CURRENTLY A DISTURBANCE IS SPARKING SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS ACROSS NORTH AL... AND THIS ACTIVITY COULD HOLD TOGETHER
AND PUSH ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GA THIS EVENING. MODELS AGREE ON
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST... AND ESTABLISHING
A LESS ACTIVE NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALSO DRAG A COLD FRONT... CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... INTO FAR NORTH GA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. NAM AND GFS MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND SAG
THE FRONT INTO THE ATLANTA METRO AREA... OR POSSIBLY JUST SOUTH OF
ATLANTA... BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE IT STALLS AND
MEANDERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE APPROACHING FRONT TONIGHT
WILL WARRANT HOLDING ONTO A LOW CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS NORTH GA
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD GREATLY HINDER
PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE WEAKENING FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PLAN TO SHOW ONLY A 10-15 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTH GA
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH EVEN LESS
POPS SOUTHWARD. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT... ALONG
WITH THE MEANDERING FRONT... WILL WARRANT ADDING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO FAR NORTH GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT... BUT NO THUNDER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AS FOR TEMPS... A MAV AND MET BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD... WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY... THEN NEAR NORMAL LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT.
39
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED THIS AFTERNOON AS SOFTWARE UPGRADE
RESULTED IN NO 12Z MODEL DATA INTO THE SYSTEM. OVERALL STILL
LOOKING AT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS FLOW FLATTENS ALOFT BUT SOME
WET CHANGES COMING AS WE TAP INTO PACIFIC TROPICAL MOISTURE LATE
IN THE WEEK...THOUGH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
TDP
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014/
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS
RUNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS
FAIRLY FLAT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE STARTING TO SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD CONCERNING THE DEPTH AND SHARPNESS OF THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...BOTH SHOW OUR REGION COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH GEORGIA JUST SOUTH OF THE MORE
ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW...BOTH MODELS KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION ALONG OR NORTH OF OUR NORTHERN BORDER. IN FACT BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF CUMULATIVE QPF SHOWS ALMOST NO PRECIPITATION
SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR THROUGH MONDAY. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE WEAKENING UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AND HOW FAR SOUTH A
WEAK COLD FRONT MANAGES TO PUSH INTO THE STATE.
MODEL INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL AT BEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...
BUT NOT NON-EXISTENT SO I HAVE KEPT THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.
20
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST OVER MOST AREAS.
THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG IN AHN/MCN THIS
MORNING. CONVECTION OVER NRN TN COULD DRIFT INTO NORTH GA LATER THIS
MORNING BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. A FEW-SCT CU WILL
DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND THEN DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
REMAIN WESTERLY TODAY...BECOMING NEAR CALM TO CALM TONIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENT.
17
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 61 84 59 84 / 20 5 10 10
ATLANTA 65 83 65 84 / 20 10 10 10
BLAIRSVILLE 58 76 55 77 / 40 20 20 20
CARTERSVILLE 62 83 57 83 / 30 10 20 20
COLUMBUS 65 88 66 86 / 10 5 10 10
GAINESVILLE 63 82 61 81 / 30 10 20 20
MACON 62 90 61 86 / 5 5 5 10
ROME 61 83 56 83 / 30 20 20 20
PEACHTREE CITY 60 85 59 84 / 20 10 10 10
VIDALIA 63 87 66 85 / 5 5 5 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
350 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
254 PM CDT
SYNOPSIS...RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AND SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH
TOMORROW. THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S. THEN THE PATTERN TURNS A BIT BUSIER WITH
MULTIPLE CHANCES OF SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY AND GOING THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO FINALLY SHIFTS EAST INTO QUEBEC
TONIGHT AND THEN CONTINUES NORTH ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO
SHIFT. WE REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LEADING TO A DRY DAY TODAY.
PRECIP MOVES IN OVERNIGHT FROM THE NW AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
MOVED POPS WELL NORTH SO THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. THE
12Z MODEL RUNS WERE MORE ROBUST WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND THE
FEATURE LINES UP RATHER WELL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JETS RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS FEATURE A LOT OF OMEGA SO THINKING
SHOWERS WILL FORM DESPITE THE DRIER LOW LEVELS. AREAS NORTH OF I-80
SHOULD BE DRY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING SOUTH OF
I-80. THE GOOD NEWS IS...THE DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS SO EXPECTING LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH NORTH OF I-80. WITH
MORE PERSISTENT RAIN EXTENDING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THINKING
RAINFALL SOUTH OF I-80 WILL BE A BIT MORE ROBUST IN THE 0.15-0.25
RANGE.
THE WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN IL THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE RAIN WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT.
FOR TEMPS...KEPT TONIGHT/S LOW TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOOKING AT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S
ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH OF I-80. CLOUD
COVER COMBINED WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S TOMORROW. THURSDAY NIGHT/S LOW WILL ALL BE BASED
ON CLOUD COVER AND FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE. OUTLYING AREAS NORTH OF
I-80 WILL COOL INTO THE MID 30S DUE TO CLEAR SKIES...WHILE AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S DUE TO CLOUD
COVER. FLOW WILL BE OFF OF THE LAKE SO AREAS ALONG THE LAKE WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THE FINAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BUT THEN QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OVER THE NE COAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING.
LOOKING A DRY END TO THIS WEEK AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. HAVE RAIN
SHIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT AND WHAT I
HAVE IN THE FORECAST MAY STILL BE TOO FAST AS THE MODELS KEEP
SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN. COULD SEE SOME FROST FRIDAY NIGHT DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH SKIES CLEAR. LOWS WEST OF A WOODSTOCK TO JOLIET LINE
WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO LOWER 30S...WITH SHELTERED AREAS POSSIBLY
GETTING CLOSE TO FREEZING. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE.
THE OTHER AREAS WILL BE AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE LAKE.
EXTENDED...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE EXACT TIMING BUT
IT LOOKS LIKE THE TROUGH WILL PASS OVERHEAD TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SURGES NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH RAIN EXPECTED
SUNDAY. COULD SEE A DRY BREAK IN THE EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN MOVING IN MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW. EXPECTING MORE RAINFALL ON MONDAY THAN SUNDAY RIGHT
NOW. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE NEXT SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH
THE LOW AND RAIN EAST...SO KEPT CHANCE POPS IN ON TUESDAY EVEN
THOUGH IT COULD BE DRY.
FOR TEMPS...STILL LOOKING BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 FARTHER SOUTH. TEMPS REACH NORMAL MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND REMAINING IN THE 60S THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE TO AROUND NORMAL IN THE 40S.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* GUSTY WEST WINDS TO NEAR 30 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
* RAIN MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS
THURSDAY.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
GOOD MIXING RESULTING IN SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND
GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KT BUT GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S. CURRENT TAFS
REFLECTING A GENERAL AVERAGE OF THE EXPECTED WINDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE A WAVE OF RAIN COMING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THERE
WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WITH THE
STRONGER PRECIP AXIS EXPECTED ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN
TERMINALS. EXPECT AT LEAST A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND AT LEAST VIRGA FALLING OUT OF THE MID DECK
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS IN THE MID 20S THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE MID AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP AT ORD EARLY THURSDAY...MEDIUM
AT MDW.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CHC SHRA.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
349 PM CDT
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND
MERGE WITH WEAKER LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY STRONG LOW OF 28.9 INCHES TO THE EAST OF
JAMES BAY BY THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY
TRACK EASTWARD. A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN RESULTING IN 25-30 KT WINDS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF
THE LAKE. AS THINGS PROGRESS EAST THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WHILE REMAINING STRONG TO THE NORTH. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO EASE SOUTH BUT LIKELY CONTINUE TO GUST TO 30 KT
ACROSS THE NORTH. WIND SPEEDS WILL EASE AND TURN NORTHERLY THURSDAY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE AS THE HIGH APPROACHES. THE HIGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD BY SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST SUNDAY. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL THEN BRING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
OR MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS SETTING UP AHEAD OF IT. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED ACROSS THE AREA INTO TUESDAY TURNING WINDS
NORTHERLY. CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE PATTERN EVOLVES BEYOND THAT IS LOW
WITH MIXED SIGNALS FROM MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
313 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
High pressure this evening will keep the winds light and somewhat
variable...though two systems converging on the Midwest bringing
some small chances of precip after midnight and into the morning
hours. Starting with clear skies tonight and slowly clouding up as
moisture and next chances for precip pushes into the region from the
SW. Northeastern CWA under clear skies longer and slightly cooler
as a result. In addition to the energy and moisture from the
SW...another wave moving into the area from the northwest. For a
few runs, operational models, specifically the NAM and the GFS have
divided up the precip... and so far the HRRR is trending the same
way. Wave to the NW seems to be producing precip a couple hours
sooner than the SWrn push, but either way...chances increasing into
the early morning hours.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
A complex, evolving upper level weather pattern and the proximity of
a nearly stationary frontal boundary near the Ohio Valley has led to
quite a bit of disagreement in the short and medium range models and
a lower than normal level of confidence in the forecast specifics
for the rest of this week and into early next week.
Complicating things initially are the remnants of Tropical Storm
Simon, which is currently in southern CA. The upper air network is
rather sparse in that area, so the models may be having a hard time
trying to initially latch onto the moisture associated with this
system. The GFS and NAM indicate that during much of Thursday,
isentropic lift should provide the ingredients for widespread
showers and a few thunderstorms. As the upper level forcing with
tropical storm remnants approaches late Thursday into Friday, most
of the lift appears to be focusing farther south toward the nearly
stalled out front. As a result, will keep the higher PoPs south of
Jacksonville-Mattoon-Paris line into Friday. The NAM and GFS may be
a bit overdone with the residual tropical moisture, so scaled back a
bit from the models on precipitation amounts for Thursday night into
Friday. There appears there could be a rather sharp cutoff on the
northern edge of the precipitation for Friday, and followed the
consensus of I-72 and east toward Danville for this line.
With respect to the upper level pattern for early in the weekend,
the GFS and European are not too far off by indicating the flow
backing from westerly to southwesterly. This will bring several
waves of low pressure up the front, but there are differences as to
the speed and location of these systems by Sunday into early next
week. For now will go with an extended period of showers from late
Saturday into Monday. With the progressive nature of the upper level
pattern, will tend to lean a bit more toward the GFS regarding the
ending of the rain by late Monday-very early Tuesday, instead of
continuing the rain all day Tuesday like the European model.
As would be expected with a cloudy and rather rainy forecast, will
keep temperatures below seasonal normals into early next week. A
transition to more of a zonal upper level flow pattern should result
in a trend toward more normal temperatures by the middle of next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
High pressure remains in control with light flow over the
region...increasingly westerly as the afternoon progresses...then
light and somewhat variable in the overnight as a gap in the
pressure gradient moves overhead and sfc decouples. Issues after
midnight as quick wave diving in from the NW progged to run into
some remnant moisture. UA analysis and sat data a little lax on
the moisture advection at this point. Concern for more scattered
nature of precip...and keeping to VCSH in PIA and BMI... and -SHRA in
CMI and in the south to better reflect the split in the shower
activity in both the GFS and the NAM...and hinted in the evolution
of the HRRR.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
216 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP HF ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND THE REMNANTS OF SIMON MOVING OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THE THE SURFACE A STALLED FRONT
EXTENDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT EAST OF THIS FRONT HAS HELPED TEMPS
WARM TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S DESPITE LINGERING CLOUD COVER.
TONIGHT...WITH MOISTURE POOLING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE IN OUR
WEST/SOUTHWEST AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST FOG MAY
BEGIN TO DEVELOP. COMPLICATION WILL BE LINGERING AND REDEVELOPING
STRATUS...WHICH COULD LIMIT LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYER..AND WITH UPWARD
MOTION GENERALLY FAVORED BY 12Z AS SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW WE
MAY BE TO WELL MIXED FOR MORE THAN STRATUS OR JUST LIGHT FOG. I KEPT
PATCH FOG MENTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH RIGHT NOW.
THURSDAY...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE COULD
SUPPORT DRIZZLE AS EARLY AS SUNRISE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. MODEL
SOUNDINGS REALLY DO NOT START TO SHOW BETTER MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE UNTIL MIDDAY AS REMNANTS OF SIMON MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS CLOSED 700MB LOW AND
STRONG JET STREAK MOVING IN FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR DEFORMATION BAND
OF PRECIP TO SET UP OVER I-70 CORRIDOR OR SOUTH BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AND COUPLED WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AND TROPICAL
MOISTURE WE COULD START TO SEE STEADY SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 18Z. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE AND WHILE I TRENDED POPS UP IM HESITANT TO GO TOO HIGH
UNTIL WE SEE BETTER RUN-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR ONSET THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. CERTAINLY GOOD PRECIP SIGNAL IN CURRENT GUIDANCE...AND
WITH UNSEASONABLY HIGH PWAT VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL AIR
MASS MAIN PRECIP BAND COULD BE VERY EFFICIENT. MODELS GENERALLY
SHOW LOCATION OF HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER WITH TRACK OF H7 LOW AND POSSIBLE
DEFORMATION/OVERRUNNING EVENT I COULD SEE THESE AMOUNTS SHIFTING
FURTHER NORTH.
WITH FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND CLOUD COVER/PRECIP THERE MAIN BE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL WARMING. I TRENDED HIGHS DOWN FRIDAY TO
THE 60-65F RANGE...AND COULD SEE THIS STILL BEING TOO COOL IF THERE
ISNT A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER BEFORE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP MOVES INTO
REGION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
A TROUGH WILL BB OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AND THEN SHIFT EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
PLAN TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER OVER
THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN 7H LOW MOVES
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE. POPS WILL
DECREASE TO CHANCE IN THE WESTERN FA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BEST
MOISTURE MOVES EAST. THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS START MOVING MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS OUT OF THE FA FRIDAY EVENING. POPS FRIDAY EVENING WILL
RANGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE DECREASING TO NIL POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BENEFICIAL RAINFALL SHOULD BE REALIZED FROM THIS EVENT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1 INCH. SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE INTO
THE FA BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH WITH NIL POPS CONTINUING SATURDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL COOL TO THE MID 40S AND TO
AROUND 40 FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S
FRIDAY AND THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY.
IN THE EXTENDED...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SUBSIDENCE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN NIL POPS.
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
MONDAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE INTO THE FA BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.
POPS WILL BE NIL MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY
WARMING TO THE LOWER 70S THURSDAY/FRIDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT WARMING TO THE
MID 40S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
1500-3000KFT STRATUS DECK ALONG THE KS/CO STATE LINE WILL CONTINUE
TO ERODE...AND WHILE CIGS MAY BE VARIABLE THROUGH AROUND 18Z VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY TAF PERIODS.
FOG/STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH WOULD IMPACT KGLD. STILL NOT CONFIDENCE
ON FOG COVERAGE CIGS HEIGHTS YET. I KEPT SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH IS IN LINE WITH MOST GUIDANCE IN THE MVFR
RANGE. PATTERN DOES SEEM TO SUPPORT POSSIBLE IFR
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER PROBABILITIES ARE LOW BASED ON CURRENTLY
GUIDANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE A SITUATION WHERE STRATUS LINGERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY THURSDAY WITH BREAKS AROUND MIDDAY. KMCK
APPEARS TO REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH BETTER
CHANCES TO SEE LOW STRATUS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1000 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 959 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
Late evening update addresses near midnight and post midnight
weather. Focused most of the thunderstorm chances along the
impressed frontal boundary along the southern 1/4 of the WFO PAH
forecast area, following the passage of the MCS into the Pennyrie
and the thunderstorms generated in advance of the MCV moving
across Southeast IL at this time.
Blended the afternoon package PoPs/Weather with the HRRR output,
keeping most of the area out of thunderstorms. Shifted
temperatures/dewpoints/winds/etc...further south to account for
the effective boundary interactions.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 132 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
The frontal boundary is perched along our southwest border and is
beginning to return its warm sector. As it does, waa convection
now seen over central MO will spread southward and eastward across
the PAH FA tonight, with likely-categorical Pops. We will monitor
the QPF output during the next 24 hours, as we still remain quite
dry, with most locales having only had about 1/4 to 1/2 inch
rainfall thus far.
Mid to High pops range continue into the weekend. And while the
front sags in a quasi-stationary fashion overtop the FA, with some
(particularly northern counties) even in low layer nly flow...the
flow off the surface remains overrunning. And the models continue
to offer elevated indices (K, TT, SI) supportive of thunder for
most/if not all the FA thru the remainder of the short term
forecast period. So we continue its mention for the most part,
playing it down to slgt chance in the farthest northern counties
during the time frame(s) it is least expected given the synoptic
setup.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
Medium confidence in the extended but improving.
Models are in much better agreement than they have been in the last
week. Or it could be said they are coming closer to what the ECMWF
has been advertising. Most model solutions agree on at least some
surface based instability Sunday so included at least a mention of
thunder. Then on Monday and Monday night is our best chance of
strong or severe with main frontal passage. Thus made thunder
predominant there. Also its the best chance of heavy rain across the
area. This is supported with negative LI`s approaching -5 and CAPE
values around 1k j/kg. It is not outlooked by SPC yet but the
verbiage for SWODY48 would indicate possible inclusion as confidence
in models improve as the event draws closer. Flooding remains
possible but currently are not forecasting amounts exceeding flash
flood guidance. However...localized flooding of urban...low lying
and flood prone areas should be anticipated at least briefly.
A surge in temps well above normal just ahead of the front Monday
then below normal in its wake finally returning to normal late in
the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 635 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
A little challenging 00z Friday TAF issuance. Anticipate sub-severe
winds approaching the KCGI TAF site at th beginning of the
forecast period with the maturing MCS (and minor bowing segment).
Attempted to account for some directional wind change and storm-
related wind gusts for KCGI.
Otherwise, a transition to MVFR visibilities and VFR ceilings with
MCS approaching from the west for KCGI and KPAH, with VFR ceilings
at KEVV and KOWB. After the main convective line decays this
evening, the impressed surface boundary will provide enough
surface moisture convergence to focus the development of IFR
ceilings and MVFR to VFR visibilities.
For simplicity sake, all of the WFO PAH TAF sites will likely see
IFR ceilings periodically from midnight through 15z-18z, with MVFR
ceilings and visibilities through the remainder of the forecast period.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1055 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2014
CONVECTION WITH LIGHTNING HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY AND
MIDDLE TN AND APPEARS HEADED TO THE SW PART OF THE CWA NEAR LAKE
CUMBERLAND OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS. POPS HAVE BEEN
RECONFIGURED BASED ON THIS TREND. ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER ON
TONIGHT AS CONVECTION FURTHER TO THE WEST OVER SOUTH IN/IL AND
WESTERN KY IS EXPECTED TO SURVIVE EAST INTO THE AREA PER RECENT MODEL
GUIDANCE. HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON
RECENT TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2014
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT TRENDS. SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS RECENT HRRR RUNS POINT TOWARD THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS BEING DRY OR MOSTLY DRY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE LOW AND MID CLOUDS AT TIMES. HOURLY POPS
WILL BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY AS WE PLAN TO LOWER POPS OVER THE NEXT 3
TO 5 HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2014
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONT STALLING OUT THROUGH NORTHERN
KENTUCKY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS FRONT/S ARRIVAL HAS ALREADY
SHUNTED AN ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND LEADING EDGE THUNDERSTORMS
EAST OUT OF THE CWA. JUST PATCHY LIGHT SHOWERS WERE LEFT BEHIND
ACROSS CWA. THE RAIN AND CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE TEMPERATURES
SUPPRESSED SO FAR TODAY AND ARE JUST NOW GETTING UP INTO THE MID 60S
MOST PLACES...WHILE MANY SPOTS ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S. 70S ARE NOT FAR AWAY...THOUGH...AND SHOULD SURGE IN DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO WARM UP EAST KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THEY
ALL DEPICT AN OPEN WAVE MOVING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FEEDING PACKETS OF ENERGY EAST OVER KENTUCKY AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IN FAIRLY FAST FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE
OVER THE GULF AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CANADA. THE CLUSTERS OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL ROLL OVERHEAD THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING AS THE WESTERN TROUGH APPROACHES. THE
ENERGY STREAM WILL ALSO BRING WITH IT SUSTAINED UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM YIELDING DECENT LIFT. DID
AGAIN FAVOR THE NAM12/HRRR FOR THE NEAR TERM GRIDS AND THE
ECMWF/NAM12 THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A STALLED BOUNDARY LYING THROUGH
NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH DURING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. FAIRLY HIGH PW AIR ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT AND WILL SUSTAIN
PERIODS OF SHOWERS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
EVEN SO...THESE WILL OCCUR OVER A DRAWN OUT PERIOD OF TIME KEEPING
THINGS QUITE WET BUT ALSO LIMITING THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FROM WHAT IT
COULD HAVE BEEN WITH A MORE ROBUST SET UP. REGARDLESS...WILL BE
ISSUING AN ESFJKL TO HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE
SHOWERS ALONG WITH A SMALL THREAT FOR MOSTLY LOCALIZED AND NUISANCE
FLOODING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...GENERALLY COOLER NORTH AND WARMER
SOUTH WITH A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE LIKELY DUE TO THE HIGH HUMIDITY.
USED THE CONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT AGAIN FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 18-24 HOURS BEFORE GOING WITH THE SUPERBLEND
THEREAFTER. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP MORE SIMILAR TO THE WETTER MET
NUMBERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2014
SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH MUCH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
APPALACHIAN REGION IN A ZONAL PATTERN. HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS PATTERN
TO BECOME AMPLIFIED AS WE GO FURTHER INTO THE WEEKEND...AS A TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND EASTERN KY FINDS ITSELF ON THE
DOWNWIND SIDE OF THE TROUGH. WHILE THE TROUGH WILL HAVE LITTLE
EASTWARD MOTION INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...IT WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN...WITH FALLING HEIGHTS EXPECTED ACROSS KENTUCKY. ALL MODELS
AGREE ON A EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS TROUGH BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/DURING THE DAY TUESDAY TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
AREAS EASTWARD. UNFORTUNATELY...THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGHING AND
THE EXACT TIMING ARE RATHER LACKING.
AS FOR SURFACE FEATURES...THE ZONAL FLOW WILL HAVE CAUSED A SURFACE
FRONT TO BECOME ELONGATED FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN KY AND
STALL. BY 12Z SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE STATIONARY...AND CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY BOTH SATURDAY...SUNDAY...AND CONTINUING
INTO MONDAY. BY MONDAY...HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL DEEPENING TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO PLAY A ROLE. AS HEIGHTS DECREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTH IN THE FORM OF
A WARM FRONT...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AND PULLING IN
WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY/S HIGHS. MEANWHILE...A
STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM MANITOBA TO THE NORTHER GREAT
LAKES...AND CONTINUE ON AN EASTERLY PATH. FROM THIS LOW WILL STRETCH
A STRONG COLD FRONT...REACHING AS FAR SOUTHWARD AS SOUTHERN TX. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...SO WILL THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. MODEL DATA IS
STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS FAR AS TIMING AND EXACT STRENGTH THIS
LATE IN THE FORECAST...BUT EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH
EASTERN KY SOMETIME EARLY ON TUESDAY.
ALONG WITH THIS FRONT WILL COME STRONG FORCING AND PULL OF MOISTURE
OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1.75 INCHES BEFORE 18Z
TUESDAY. MOISTURE CAN BE FOUND FROM THE SURFACE ALL THE WAY TO THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...SO WOULD EXPECT THAT THIS WILL BE
QUITE THE SOAKER OF AN EVENT. NOT TO MENTION...ALL THE RAIN THAT HAS
FALLEN ON PREVIOUS DAY /EACH DAY IS LOOKING AT PWAT VALUES WELL OVER
AN INCH LEADING UP TO THIS POINT/. ALTHOUGH THIS IS A QUICK MOVING
SYSTEM...AND DRYING WILL LIKELY COME QUICKLY AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT MAY BE PRODUCED WITH THIS LINE OF
STORMS MAY BE ENOUGH TO LEAD TO FLOODING POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS FAR OUT...IT IS HARD TO TELL
WHICH AREAS WILL BE HIT THE HARDEST LEADING UP TO THIS POINT...AND
THE UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF THIS LINE HAS LED TO HOLDING OFF ON ANY SORT OF FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO DEFINITELY KEEP AN EYE
OUT FOR...AS EXCESSIVE WATER WILL LIKELY BE A PROBLEM LEADING INTO
THIS EVENT.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...CLEARING WILL FINALLY TAKE HOLD
AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION. COOLER CANADIAN
AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
LOWER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S...WHILE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN TO THE
UPPER 40S TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LOW TO MID 40S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 840 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH...IF NOT ALL OF THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD...BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN KY AND MIDDLE
TN WORK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST IS ALSO POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR
SHRA AND TSRA THEN WILL INCREASE AND WITH FURTHER SATURATION...CIGS
AND OR VIS SHOULD GRADUALLY DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR RANGE AROUND 9Z
OR AFTER AND GENERALLY REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SHRA AND SOME TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD AND SOME LOCATIONS COULD DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE AT
TIMES. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
858 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2014
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT TRENDS. SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS RECENT HRRR RUNS POINT TOWARD THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS BEING DRY OR MOSTLY DRY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE LOW AND MID CLOUDS AT TIMES. HOURLY POPS
WILL BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY AS WE PLAN TO LOWER POPS OVER THE NEXT 3
TO 5 HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2014
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONT STALLING OUT THROUGH NORTHERN
KENTUCKY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS FRONT/S ARRIVAL HAS ALREADY
SHUNTED AN ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND LEADING EDGE THUNDERSTORMS
EAST OUT OF THE CWA. JUST PATCHY LIGHT SHOWERS WERE LEFT BEHIND
ACROSS CWA. THE RAIN AND CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE TEMPERATURES
SUPPRESSED SO FAR TODAY AND ARE JUST NOW GETTING UP INTO THE MID 60S
MOST PLACES...WHILE MANY SPOTS ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S. 70S ARE NOT FAR AWAY...THOUGH...AND SHOULD SURGE IN DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO WARM UP EAST KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THEY
ALL DEPICT AN OPEN WAVE MOVING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FEEDING PACKETS OF ENERGY EAST OVER KENTUCKY AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IN FAIRLY FAST FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE
OVER THE GULF AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CANADA. THE CLUSTERS OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL ROLL OVERHEAD THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING AS THE WESTERN TROUGH APPROACHES. THE
ENERGY STREAM WILL ALSO BRING WITH IT SUSTAINED UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM YIELDING DECENT LIFT. DID
AGAIN FAVOR THE NAM12/HRRR FOR THE NEAR TERM GRIDS AND THE
ECMWF/NAM12 THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A STALLED BOUNDARY LYING THROUGH
NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH DURING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. FAIRLY HIGH PW AIR ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT AND WILL SUSTAIN
PERIODS OF SHOWERS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
EVEN SO...THESE WILL OCCUR OVER A DRAWN OUT PERIOD OF TIME KEEPING
THINGS QUITE WET BUT ALSO LIMITING THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FROM WHAT IT
COULD HAVE BEEN WITH A MORE ROBUST SET UP. REGARDLESS...WILL BE
ISSUING AN ESFJKL TO HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE
SHOWERS ALONG WITH A SMALL THREAT FOR MOSTLY LOCALIZED AND NUISANCE
FLOODING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...GENERALLY COOLER NORTH AND WARMER
SOUTH WITH A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE LIKELY DUE TO THE HIGH HUMIDITY.
USED THE CONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT AGAIN FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 18-24 HOURS BEFORE GOING WITH THE SUPERBLEND
THEREAFTER. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP MORE SIMILAR TO THE WETTER MET
NUMBERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2014
SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH MUCH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
APPALACHIAN REGION IN A ZONAL PATTERN. HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS PATTERN
TO BECOME AMPLIFIED AS WE GO FURTHER INTO THE WEEKEND...AS A TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND EASTERN KY FINDS ITSELF ON THE
DOWNWIND SIDE OF THE TROUGH. WHILE THE TROUGH WILL HAVE LITTLE
EASTWARD MOTION INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...IT WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN...WITH FALLING HEIGHTS EXPECTED ACROSS KENTUCKY. ALL MODELS
AGREE ON A EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS TROUGH BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/DURING THE DAY TUESDAY TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
AREAS EASTWARD. UNFORTUNATELY...THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGHING AND
THE EXACT TIMING ARE RATHER LACKING.
AS FOR SURFACE FEATURES...THE ZONAL FLOW WILL HAVE CAUSED A SURFACE
FRONT TO BECOME ELONGATED FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN KY AND
STALL. BY 12Z SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE STATIONARY...AND CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY BOTH SATURDAY...SUNDAY...AND CONTINUING
INTO MONDAY. BY MONDAY...HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL DEEPENING TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO PLAY A ROLE. AS HEIGHTS DECREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTH IN THE FORM OF
A WARM FRONT...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AND PULLING IN
WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY/S HIGHS. MEANWHILE...A
STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM MANITOBA TO THE NORTHER GREAT
LAKES...AND CONTINUE ON AN EASTERLY PATH. FROM THIS LOW WILL STRETCH
A STRONG COLD FRONT...REACHING AS FAR SOUTHWARD AS SOUTHERN TX. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...SO WILL THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. MODEL DATA IS
STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS FAR AS TIMING AND EXACT STRENGTH THIS
LATE IN THE FORECAST...BUT EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH
EASTERN KY SOMETIME EARLY ON TUESDAY.
ALONG WITH THIS FRONT WILL COME STRONG FORCING AND PULL OF MOISTURE
OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1.75 INCHES BEFORE 18Z
TUESDAY. MOISTURE CAN BE FOUND FROM THE SURFACE ALL THE WAY TO THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...SO WOULD EXPECT THAT THIS WILL BE
QUITE THE SOAKER OF AN EVENT. NOT TO MENTION...ALL THE RAIN THAT HAS
FALLEN ON PREVIOUS DAY /EACH DAY IS LOOKING AT PWAT VALUES WELL OVER
AN INCH LEADING UP TO THIS POINT/. ALTHOUGH THIS IS A QUICK MOVING
SYSTEM...AND DRYING WILL LIKELY COME QUICKLY AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT MAY BE PRODUCED WITH THIS LINE OF
STORMS MAY BE ENOUGH TO LEAD TO FLOODING POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS FAR OUT...IT IS HARD TO TELL
WHICH AREAS WILL BE HIT THE HARDEST LEADING UP TO THIS POINT...AND
THE UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF THIS LINE HAS LED TO HOLDING OFF ON ANY SORT OF FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO DEFINITELY KEEP AN EYE
OUT FOR...AS EXCESSIVE WATER WILL LIKELY BE A PROBLEM LEADING INTO
THIS EVENT.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...CLEARING WILL FINALLY TAKE HOLD
AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION. COOLER CANADIAN
AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
LOWER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S...WHILE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN TO THE
UPPER 40S TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LOW TO MID 40S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 840 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH...IF NOT ALL OF THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD...BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN KY AND MIDDLE
TN WORK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST IS ALSO POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR
SHRA AND TSRA THEN WILL INCREASE AND WITH FURTHER SATURATION...CIGS
AND OR VIS SHOULD GRADUALLY DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR RANGE AROUND 9Z
OR AFTER AND GENERALLY REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SHRA AND SOME TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD AND SOME LOCATIONS COULD DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE AT
TIMES. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
151 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS TO BETTER HANDLE THE ONGOING CONVECTION
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CURRENT SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE FORECAST GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS.
THE ONLY REAL REMAINING THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING. THE NEW ZONES
HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT OUT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 825 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
THE TRAIN OF SEVERE STORMS AND SUPERCELLS CONTINUES TO ROLL EAST
THROUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY. AS SUCH HAVE EXTENDED THE TORNADO WATCH
THROUGH 11 PM PER CONVERSATION WITH SPC AND NEIGHBORS. HAVE SET UP
THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES AND THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
UPDATED ZONES AND HWO OUT SHORTLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO EXTEND THE TORNADO WATCH A COUPLE OF COUNTIES
SOUTH. THIS WAS MAINLY TO DEAL WITH THE DEVELOPING LINEAR CELLS JUST
OUTSIDE OF ROCKCASTLE COUNTY. THE WCN HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG WITH
UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES. HWO TO FOLLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA. THE WIND FIELD AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH A MID LEVEL SPEED
MAX MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SURGE OF
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION...HAS RESULTED IN A THREAT FOR
SUPERCELLS AND THEIR SEVERE WEATHER ATTRIBUTES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA...WHERE A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT. ON
RADAR...A VERY STRONG/SEVERE CLUSTER OF STORMS IS NOW TRACKING
THROUGH THE WATCH AREA TOWARD EAST KENTUCKY AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
JKL CWA BETWEEN 4:30 AND 6 PM...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER THIS
INITIAL BATCH OF STORMS PASS. A CLEARING OF THE LOWER CLOUDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE EARLIER SHOWERS AND STORMS IS BRINGING TEMPERATURES UP
INTO THE 60S AND 70S THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
10 TO 20 KTS AND GUSTS TO 25 KTS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE LARGE AND DEEP UPPER
LOW SPINNING NORTH OF THE MIDWEST AND ITS ATTENDANT ENERGY PACKET
RACING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. THIS NODE OF
THE UPPER LOW THEN LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR DECENT HEIGHT
RISES IN ITS WAKE. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE A VIRTUAL MATCH WITH THEIR
FLATTENING OF THE PATTERN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. LATER THAT NIGHT
AN OPENING TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNER/S REGION WILL SEND MORE ENERGY
THIS WAY IN THE FAST FLOW LEADING RIGHT INTO KENTUCKY. FOR THE MOST
PART...USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR AND
NAM12 FOR THE NEAR TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A STORMY EVENING FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AREA INTO THE
EVENING. THE STORMS WILL MOVE OFF BY LATE EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ON TAP. FOR WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE US ONE SOLID DAY OF DRY WEATHER WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HOWEVER...THE FRONT THAT PUSHES OFF TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT WILL START TO COME BACK AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BY DAWN IN BOTH THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA AND ALSO ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER.
USED THE CONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 18-24 HOURS BEFORE GOING WITH THE SUPERBLEND
THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR TERRAIN EFFECTS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED
UP MORE SIMILAR TO THE WETTER MET NUMBERS TONIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH THE BROAD
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CANADIAN MARITIMES AND SLOWLY
SHIFTING EAST. MEANWHILE DURING THIS TIME...A RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS WITH A CLOSED LOW BEING THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM SIMON MOVING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. BY THE WEEKEND...A STRONG JET STREAK DIVES OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A TROUGH DEEPENS
FURTHER WITH THE REMNANTS OF SIMON MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS HAVE SEEM TO
COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AS WELL AS THE SUPER BLEND
MODEL...AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SUPER BLEND GAVE A
CONSENSUS OF LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO KEPT THIS SOLUTION
IN THE FORECAST.
FOR DETAILS IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AN EXITING FRONT BECOMES STALLED
AND ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ALONG THE TN VALLEY AND INTO KY DURING THE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD DUE TO STRONG RIDGING ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THIS SETS UP A SCENARIO WHERE NUMEROUS WAVES MOVE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY PROVIDING RAIN CHANCES EVERYDAY DURING THE EXTENDED. THIS
BEING A MORE SPRING LIKE PATTERN OCCURRING THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
VEGETATION ON THE DECLINE COULD MAKE FOR A CONCERN FOR FLOODING IN
THE EXTENDED. WITH THE REMNANTS OF SIMON...THE INFLUX OF GULF
MOISTURE AND AN ACTIVE JET FOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THE INGREDIENTS
MAY BE AVAILABLE FOR THIS EVENT. A FEW DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE
IRONED OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE MODELS HANDLING A TRANSITION IN THE
PATTERN BUT THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2014
THE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE TAFS WILL BE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE PLAGUED THE AREA SINCE YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON HAVE NOW MOVED WELL SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AT LOZ AND
SME...AND THERE SHOULD BE NO FURTHER ISSUES THE REST OF TONIGHT AT
THE TAF SITES WITH SHOWERS OR STORMS. AFTER 13Z TODAY SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PADUCAH KY
1141 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014
Updated the aviation discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014
Morning convection has waned as the main cells have departed to
the east. There is still a slgt chance of a perturbation upstream
rotating down/across the FA and touching a storm off this pm, but
the HRRR suggests this is increasingly unlikely. Will maintain a
20 pop mention thru diurnal heating hours.
Drier air works down the column for our mid week and spells the
end of such as a frontal boundary drapes from the Plains across
the Mississippi and Ohio valleys sometime later in the week. This
sets the stage for an extended wet period that begins perhaps as
early as Wed night and continues thru the remainder of the short
term, into/thru the long term portion of the forecast.
.LONG TERM.../Friday through Tuesday/
Issued at 138 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2014
High confidence in a very wet extended forecast. Medium confidence
in the exact timing of the several rounds of rain events.
By Thursday into Friday a front will be stalled over the area
bringing rain to the region. This will combine with remnants of TS
Simon which should make landfall today. This will establish a
tropical connection to the southwest Pacific often referred to as a
monsoonal flow out west. This additional moisture will likely set
the stage for some flooding this weekend as the front meanders over
the heartland and especially early next week when yet another
stronger system will be bearing down on the area. This later system
could produce strong or even severe storms with very efficient/heavy
rain. At this time the models are not too aggressive with
instability but that is a little too far out to rule it out. Between
days 4 through 8 Friday through Wednesday morning we could see
between 3 to 5 inches for a storm total. The limiting factor will be
how much instability the atmosphere can muster.
Temperatures will go below normal Friday through Saturday then near
normal Sunday before falling back below by mid week next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014
High pressure and decreasing moisture overspreading the TAF sites
should keep them precipitation free through the period with only
a few scattered clouds expected. Calm to light and variable winds
overnight will pick up out of the northwest to north AOB 10 knots
after 15Z.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Smith
SHORT TERM...DH
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1007 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/SHIFT NE ACROSS THE ERN
SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA AS OF MID-EVENING...TIED INTO AN AREA OF
ENHANCED SFC THETA-E AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY. WHILE THE 00Z
PROGS HAVE NOT INITIALIZED WELL ON THIS CONVECTION THIS
EVENING...THE HRRR DOES...BUT HAS IT EXITING THE
REGION/DIMINISHING AROUND 06Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AS
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO WANE OVERNIGHT. HAVE EXTENDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH 06Z...DROPPING THEM
AFTERWARDS. OTHERWISE...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE
WAY TO AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS SHIELD LATE...AS THEY DEVELOP/STREAM N
ALONG A 20-30KT SSW LLJ. HAVE WORDED SKY CONDITIONS TO REFLECT
THIS TREND OF BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH THE STRATUS EXPECTED
TO LIFT BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY FRIDAY. GIVEN THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S OVER EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...AND HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN TEMPS OVER THESE AREAS.
A WEAK SFC FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY TO OUR N OVER NRN OK/SRN MO
THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE WRN
EXTENT OF THE FRONT OVER WRN OK MAY BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE LATE
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN WELL N OF THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY...MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING OVER EXTREME
NE TX/SE OK/SW AR. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
MORNING FOR THE NRN ZONES...BUT DID MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON FOR SCT CONVECTION THAT SHOULD DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY.
ELSEWHERE...ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.
ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
15
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 714 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 10/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THIS TAF PERIOD AS
CU/ALTOCU DECKS AND HIGH CIRRUS BOTH DIMINISH LEADING TO A MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY EVENING. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY
MID TO LATE MORNING HOWEVER...PRODUCING MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS
AT ALL TERMINALS PRIOR TO OR VERY NEAR DAYBREAK THROUGH 10/15Z-16Z.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE AS WELL BUT MORE LIKELY AT LFK/MLU/ELD
AS WARM AND MOIST SOUTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL. WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP
OFF OVERNIGHT TO 5 KTS OR LESS AT MOST SITES BUT INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN TO NEAR 10 KTS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RESUME BY PRIOR TO 18Z AS CIGS BEGIN TO LIFT AND SCATTER. /19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 70 90 69 83 66 / 5 20 40 70 40
MLU 71 90 66 85 66 / 20 20 30 60 40
DEQ 67 85 64 76 60 / 10 40 80 90 40
TXK 68 86 66 79 62 / 5 30 70 80 40
ELD 66 88 65 81 64 / 20 30 40 70 40
TYR 71 90 68 81 63 / 5 20 60 70 40
GGG 69 90 67 83 64 / 5 20 40 70 40
LFK 71 89 70 85 67 / 5 20 30 70 40
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
609 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING AND WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH QUEBEC. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
605 AM UPDATE...A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDER IS CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM HOULTON DOWN TO NEWPORT,
MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. RAINFALL RATES ARE EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PER
HOUR IN THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OF THIS BAND. WHILE THE
INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE MOVING QUICKLY ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FLOODING,
THERE IS CONCERN OF PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS, INCLUDING I-95.
WITH THE ONSET OF RUSH HOUR, HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR PORTIONS OF PENOBSCOT COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR PONDING
OF WATER AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN THIS BAND. THE MESOSCALE MODELS
ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BAND (THE HRRR
HAD IT TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST), SO HAVE HAD TO UPDATE THE FORECAST
TO MATCH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. ALSO CHANGED A CHANCE OF THUNDER TO
SCATTERED WORDING IN THE FORECAST, SINCE WE`VE GOT ONGOING
CONVECTION. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERNS FOR TODAY WILL BE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES INTO ONTARIO AND EVENTUALLY QUEBEC TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS IT
DOES SO, THE LOW WILL DRAG ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE RAINFALL IS ALREADY OCCURRING
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THERE`S LOTS OF EMBEDDED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CURRENTLY NOSING INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS 40-50 KT JET WILL SPREAD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THAT AT LEAST SOME OF
THIS WIND WILL BE ABLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE, ESPECIALLY IN ANY
CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP. AS SUCH, IT WILL BE ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH. THIS JET WILL ALSO
RESULT IN IMPRESSIVE SHEAR, WITH 0-6KM VALUES RUNNING AS HIGH AS 50
KTS. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THERE`S ALREADY
CONVECTION ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING (NEAR BANGOR ATTM AS WELL AS
FURTHER UPSTREAM IN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND), FEEL THAT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY. THE 05Z HRRR MODEL, WHICH
IS HANDLING PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT FAIRLY WELL THIS MORNING,
INDICATES THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT, GIVEN THE STRONG
SHEAR, ROTATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. IN FACT,
THE LATEST DAY 1 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS INTRODUCED A 2%
CHANCE OF TORNADOES FOR COASTAL MAINE STRETCHING FROM ABOUT THE
HANCOCK/WASHINGTON COUNTY BORDER SOUTHWARD TO NEW HAMPSHIRE.
HOWEVER, TORNADO FORMATION IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY AND THEREFORE WAS NOT
INCLUDED IN ANY PRODUCTS OUTSIDE OF THIS DISCUSSION. IT IS ONLY
INCLUDED HERE AS IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY. PWATS IN EXCESS
OF 1 INCH INDICATE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF AN INCH
TO UPWARDS OF 1.25 INCHES.
FOR TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK THIS EVENING,
USHERING IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS. AS SUCH, EXPECT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO A QUICK END BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE A BIT AS WELL, THOUGH GUSTS TO 20 MPH WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT, BUT
THE WIND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TO THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH (A BIT COLDER IN
THE USUAL VALLEY LOCALES) TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SERIES OF S/WVS ROTATING ARND AN UPPER LVL VORTEX OVR ERN CAN
WILL BRING PDS OF CLDNSS ACROSS THE N HLF OF THE FA...MSLY IN THE
AFTN/EVE HRS OF BOTH THU AND FRI WHEN THERE WILL NE A CHC OF
SHWRS MSLY ACROSS THE NRN QUARTER OF THE FA...BOTH ELEMENTS WHERE
GFS MOS GUIDANCE DOES WELL WITH IN THE COLD SEASON. THE SCT-BKN
SC LN WILL RETREAT INTO NRN PTNS OF THE FA DURING THE LATE NGT
HRS OF BOTH THU AND FRI. THE SFC PRES GRAD WILL REMAIN STRONG
DURING THESE PDS... SO NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF NGT TM RADIATIONAL
COOLING...XCPT PERHAPS A SHORT WINDOW LATE FRI NGT ACROSS THE NW
WHEN WINDS SLACKED AND CLDS DECREASE. HI TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE
BLO AVG AND LOW TEMPS NEAR AVG DURG THIS PTN OF THE FCST.
SAT MAY FEATURE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE N WHILE A FLAT
S/WV FROM THE OH VLY MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST BRINGING A CHC
OF SHWRS PERHAPS AS FAR N AS OUR COASTAL WATERS SAT INTO SAT
EVE...WITH CLDNSS FROM THIS SYSTEM REACHING DOWNEAST AREAS DURG
THESE PDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF CLDNSS ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/WV AND SFC LOW MOVG E
OF THE MID ATLC STATES TO S OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL MOVE E OF DOWNEAST
PTNS OF THE FA LATE SAT NGT. THIS WILL ALLOW MCLR SKIES FOR SUN
INTO MON MORN AS A LARGE SFC HI FROM THE GREAT LKS BUILD TOWARD
THE FA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BLO AVG DURG THESE PDS...WITH
POTENTIALLY THE COLDEST MRNG OCCURRING SUN NGT AS THE SFC HI
SETTLES OVRHD...PROMOTING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MON WILL BEGIN
FAIR...BUT CLDNSS WILL BEGIN INCREASING MON AFTN AS A S/WV AND SFC
LOW APCHS FROM THE OH VLY. SHWRS FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO ARRIVE
MON NGT AND CONT INTO TUE. INTERESTING THAT THE USUALLY SLOWER
ECMWF MODEL IS FASTER IN BRINGING CLDS AND SHWRS WITH THIS SYSTEM
BY 6 TO 12 HRS THAN THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS MODEL RUN...BUT WE PREFER
TO LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS MODEL RUN THIS UPDATE...WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY THE CORRESPONDING GFS ENSM RUN. HI TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER ON BOTH MON AND TUE...WITH MUCH MILDER OVRNGT LOWS MON NGT.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: AVIATION SITES ARE CURRENTLY A MIX OF CONDITIONS,
RANGING FROM LIFR AT KFVE AND KBGR TO VFR AT KHUL. WIDESPREAD RAIN
IS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING, AND IT IS EXPECTED ALL
SITES WILL LOWER TO IFR BY 16Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG
WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 TO 50 KTS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, THEN IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE RAIN EXITS THE
REGION. ALL SITES VFR BY 06Z. EARLY MORNING FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME DUE TO WINDS FORECASTED TO REMAIN NEAR 10 KTS
OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR IS XPCTD THRU THIS PD...WITH PDS OF LOW
VFR OR HIGH MVFR CLGS POSSIBLE ATTMS ACROSS NRN TAF SITES THU AND
FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO THURSDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNDER 20 KTS, THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
FIRST APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES THE WATERS. SEAS ARE ALREADY
RUNNING 4-5 FEET, AND WAVES WILL BUILD THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL,
REACHING 6-7 FEET BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
LULL IN WINDS THIS EVENING, THEY WILL PICK UP ONCE AGAIN LATE AS
COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS.
SEAS WILL STAY ABOVE 5 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: GENERAL SCA OR SCA FOR HAZ SEAS WILL LIKELY
CONT THU INTO MUCH OF FRI...SPCLY OVR OUTER MZS050-051...BEFORE
WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BY FRI NGT AND CONT BLO SCA THRESHOLDS OVR
THE WEEKEND. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
THESE PTNS OF THE FCST.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AROUND MID-MORNING TODAY. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A SURGE OF AROUND HALF A FOOT ASSOCIATED WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS HOW MUCH THIS SURGE WILL BE ENHANCED AS IT MOVES UP
PENOBSCOT BAY TOWARD BANGOR. A HALF FOOT SURGE WOULD TAKE THE RIVER
GAGE UP TO AROUND ACTION STAGE (11.0 FT), WITH ANOTHER HALF A FOOT
BRINGING THE GAGE CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE A BRIEF
SURGE AND NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. A LOOK AT
OUR LOCAL WAVE RUNUP MODEL INDICATES THAT LITTLE TO NO COASTAL
FLOODING/SPLASH OVER WILL OCCUR.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HASTINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
416 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING AND WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH QUEBEC. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN CONCERNS FOR TODAY WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES INTO ONTARIO AND EVENTUALLY QUEBEC TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS IT
DOES SO, THE LOW WILL DRAG ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE RAINFALL IS ALREADY OCCURRING
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THERE`S LOTS OF EMBEDDED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CURRENTLY NOSING INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS 40-50 KT JET WILL SPREAD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THAT AT LEAST SOME OF
THIS WIND WILL BE ABLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE, ESPECIALLY IN ANY
CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP. AS SUCH, IT WILL BE ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH. THIS JET WILL ALSO
RESULT IN IMPRESSIVE SHEAR, WITH 0-6KM VALUES RUNNING AS HIGH AS 50
KTS. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THERE`S ALREADY
CONVECTION ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING (NEAR BANGOR ATTM AS WELL AS
FURTHER UPSTREAM IN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND), FEEL THAT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY. THE 05Z HRRR MODEL, WHICH
IS HANDLING PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT FAIRLY WELL THIS MORNING,
INDICATES THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT, GIVEN THE STRONG
SHEAR, ROTATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. IN FACT,
THE LATEST DAY 1 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS INTRODUCED A 2%
CHANCE OF TORNADOES FOR COASTAL MAINE STRETCHING FROM ABOUT THE
HANCOCK/WASHINGTON COUNTY BORDER SOUTHWARD TO NEW HAMPSHIRE.
HOWEVER, TORNADO FORMATION IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY AND THEREFORE WAS NOT
INCLUDED IN ANY PRODUCTS OUTSIDE OF THIS DISCUSSION. IT IS ONLY
INCLUDED HERE AS IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY. PWATS IN EXCESS
OF 1 INCH INDICATE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF AN INCH
TO UPWARDS OF 1.25 INCHES.
FOR TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK THIS EVENING,
USHERING IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS. AS SUCH, EXPECT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO A QUICK END BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE A BIT AS WELL, THOUGH GUSTS TO 20 MPH WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT, BUT
THE WIND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TO THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH (A BIT COLDER IN
THE USUAL VALLEY LOCALES) TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SERIES OF S/WVS ROTATING ARND AN UPPER LVL VORTEX OVR ERN CAN
WILL BRING PDS OF CLDNSS ACROSS THE N HLF OF THE FA...MSLY IN THE
AFTN/EVE HRS OF BOTH THU AND FRI WHEN THERE WILL NE A CHC OF
SHWRS MSLY ACROSS THE NRN QUARTER OF THE FA...BOTH ELEMENTS WHERE
GFS MOS GUIDANCE DOES WELL WITH IN THE COLD SEASON. THE SCT-BKN
SC LN WILL RETREAT INTO NRN PTNS OF THE FA DURING THE LATE NGT
HRS OF BOTH THU AND FRI. THE SFC PRES GRAD WILL REMAIN STRONG
DURING THESE PDS... SO NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF NGT TM RADIATIONAL
COOLING...XCPT PERHAPS A SHORT WINDOW LATE FRI NGT ACROSS THE NW
WHEN WINDS SLACKED AND CLDS DECREASE. HI TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE
BLO AVG AND LOW TEMPS NEAR AVG DURG THIS PTN OF THE FCST.
SAT MAY FEATURE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE N WHILE A FLAT
S/WV FROM THE OH VLY MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST BRINGING A CHC
OF SHWRS PERHAPS AS FAR N AS OUR COASTAL WATERS SAT INTO SAT
EVE...WITH CLDNSS FROM THIS SYSTEM REACHING DOWNEAST AREAS DURG
THESE PDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF CLDNSS ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/WV AND SFC LOW MOVG E
OF THE MID ATLC STATES TO S OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL MOVE E OF DOWNEAST
PTNS OF THE FA LATE SAT NGT. THIS WILL ALLOW MCLR SKIES FOR SUN
INTO MON MORN AS A LARGE SFC HI FROM THE GREAT LKS BUILD TOWARD
THE FA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BLO AVG DURG THESE PDS...WITH
POTENTIALLY THE COLDEST MRNG OCCURRING SUN NGT AS THE SFC HI
SETTLES OVRHD...PROMOTING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MON WILL BEGIN
FAIR...BUT CLDNSS WILL BEGIN INCREASING MON AFTN AS A S/WV AND SFC
LOW APCHS FROM THE OH VLY. SHWRS FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO ARRIVE
MON NGT AND CONT INTO TUE. INTERESTING THAT THE USUALLY SLOWER
ECMWF MODEL IS FASTER IN BRINGING CLDS AND SHWRS WITH THIS SYSTEM
BY 6 TO 12 HRS THAN THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS MODEL RUN...BUT WE PREFER
TO LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS MODEL RUN THIS UPDATE...WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY THE CORRESPONDING GFS ENSM RUN. HI TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER ON BOTH MON AND TUE...WITH MUCH MILDER OVRNGT LOWS MON NGT.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: AVIATION SITES ARE CURRENTLY A MIX OF CONDITIONS,
RANGING FROM LIFR AT KFVE AND KBGR TO VFR AT KHUL. WIDESPREAD RAIN
IS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING, AND IT IS EXPECTED ALL
SITES WILL LOWER TO IFR BY 16Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG
WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 TO 50 KTS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, THEN IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE RAIN EXITS THE
REGION. ALL SITES VFR BY 06Z. EARLY MORNING FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME DUE TO WINDS FORECASTED TO REMAIN NEAR 10 KTS
OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR IS XPCTD THRU THIS PD...WITH PDS OF LOW
VFR OR HIGH MVFR CLGS POSSIBLE ATTMS ACROSS NRN TAF SITES THU AND
FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO THURSDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNDER 20 KTS, THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
FIRST APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES THE WATERS. SEAS ARE ALREADY
RUNNING 4-5 FEET, AND WAVES WILL BUILD THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL,
REACHING 6-7 FEET BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
LULL IN WINDS THIS EVENING, THEY WILL PICK UP ONCE AGAIN LATE AS
COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS.
SEAS WILL STAY ABOVE 5 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: GENERAL SCA OR SCA FOR HAZ SEAS WILL LIKELY
CONT THU INTO MUCH OF FRI...SPCLY OVR OUTER MZS050-051...BEFORE
WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BY FRI NGT AND CONT BLO SCA THRESHOLDS OVR
THE WEEKEND. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
THESE PTNS OF THE FCST.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AROUND MID-MORNING TODAY. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A SURGE OF AROUND HALF A FOOT ASSOCIATED WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS HOW MUCH THIS SURGE WILL BE ENHANCED AS IT MOVES UP
PENOBSCOT BAY TOWARD BANGOR. A HALF FOOT SURGE WOULD TAKE THE RIVER
GAGE UP TO AROUND ACTION STAGE (11.0 FT), WITH ANOTHER HALF A FOOT
BRINGING THE GAGE CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE A BRIEF
SURGE AND NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. A LOOK AT
OUR LOCAL WAVE RUNUP MODEL INDICATES THAT LITTLE TO NO COASTAL
FLOODING/SPLASH OVER WILL OCCUR.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HASTINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1235 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A STRENGTHENING AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1235 AM UPDATE...THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST
POPS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. THIS MODEL HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON PRECIP PLACEMENT ATTM, AND INDICATES THAT SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK. THE CHANGES WERE MAINLY COSMETIC AND
SHOULDN`T CHANGE TO OVERALL FEEL OF THE FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGES
WERE NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A
STRENGTHENING LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECTING THE REGION
FOR WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE FOR TODAY, A LEAD DISTURBANCE IS
PRODUCING SOME RAIN AND SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AS OF THE MID AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST BEFORE BEGINNING TO FIZZLE OUT THIS EVENING AS IT
REACHES CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA FROM PENOBSCOT COUNTY NORTHEAST
INTO EASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN FAIRLY STRONG
AND GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY DUE TO A LOW LEVEL JET BUT THESE
WINDS SHOULD COME DOWN FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT.
FOR TONIGHT, THE ABOVE MENTIONED RAIN/SHOWERS WILL FIZZLE TO
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE AS LOW STRATUS SETS OVER THE AREA ON A
SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOWS WILL BE MILD...IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
THE MAIN SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A SWATH OF HEAVIER
RAIN TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING
THE MID TO LATE MORNING TIME FRAME. S/SE WINDS WILL ALSO COME UP
AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP...WINDS OF 40-45 KNOTS ARE
DEPICTED IN THE LOWEST 1 KM BY BOTH THE GFS AND NAM. GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 MPH HAVE BEEN INDICATED IN THE GRIDS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THE OTHER
CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION...MODELS INDICATE MU CAPES OF SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR UPWARDS OF 50 KNOTS. PUTTING THIS
ALL TOGETHER, BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
WINDS TO MIX DOWN IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING
THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. GUSTS OF AT LEAST 40 TO 50
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE CELLS. THE HEAVIER RAIN AND
ANY THUNDER WILL END LATE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS STILL LOOKING TO BE 0.50 TO 1.00
INCHES WITH UP TO 1.50 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS TERM.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
W/STEADY RAIN & SHOWERS ENDING AND SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS
THE DOWNEAST AND COAST OVERNIGHT. DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST DUE TO A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. QPF AMONTS FROM
THIS FEATURE WILL BE LESS THAN 0.10". DEFINITELY MUCH COLDER THAN
THE LAST FEW DAYS AS READINGS BY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH AND WEST AND LOW TO MID 40S CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST.
REMAINING UNSETTLED AND CHILLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND THE UPPER
TROF WILL REMAIN TO BACK ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANY
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION W/THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST AS REFERENCED BY THE NAM/GFS AND ECMWF. STAYED CLOSE TO THE
MIDNIGHT CREW`S THINKING OF DAYTIME HIGHS OF LOWER 50S NORTH AND
WEST AND MID TO UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BASICALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND W/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF/GFS AND CANADIAN
GLOBAL ALL SHOW LOW PRES SLIDING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE HIGH IS THEN SHOWN TO SLIDE OFF THE EAST ON MONDAY W/THE SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE NEW ENGLAND REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BEFORE
THEN, DRY AND MORE LIKE AUTUMN WEATHER
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
AS STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE SET UP HEADING INTO THIS
EVENING EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP TO MVFR LEVELS WITH IFR LIKELY BY
LATER TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN AND STRONGER WINDS WILL
MOVE THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY BEGINNING MID TO LATE
MORNING AND LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN CONTINUING IFR
AND EVEN A PERIOD OF POSSIBLE LIFR. EMBEDDED CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL WIND SHEAR ISSUES AS WINDS WILL
BE OVER 40 KNOTS IN THE LOWEST 1 KM.
SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GO VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
W/THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ON
THURSDAY AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MVFR FOR FRIDAY. VFR FOR KBGR AND
BHB RIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS HAVE BEEN HOVERING JUST BELOW SCA LEVELS
THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO COME UP HEADING INTO TONIGHT
WHILE THERE MAY BE A BRIEF DECREASE IN THE WINDS THIS EVENING
BEFORE THEY COME UP LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE ONGOING HEADLINES WHICH FEATURE AN SCA FOR
WINDS/SEAS BEGINNING AT 00Z THIS EVENING CONTINUING THROUGH 0Z
THURSDAY.
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EXPECT STRONG SCA CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30 KNOTS WITH SEAS COMING UP TO AROUND 7 FT. DUE TO STABLE
CONDITIONS WITH THE WARMER AIR COMING OVER THE COLDER WATERS MIX
DOWN POTENTIAL OF STRONGER WINDS WILL BE LIMITED SO DO NOT EXPECT
GALE CONDITIONS.CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO ABATE LATE DAY BEHIND
THE FRONT.
SHORT TERM: SCA TO DROP OFF BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS WINDS COME
DOWN BELOW 20 KTS. SEAS COULD STAY UP A WHILE LONGER WHICH COULD
LEAD THE SCA TO TRANSITION TO HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY
EVENING. A SECOND SURGE OF SOME GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
W/THE SECOND SURFACE FRONT. ATTM, KEPT THE WINDS BELOW SCA AND
LEANED W/GUSTS TO 20 KTS W/AN OFFSHORE FLOW. SEAS WILL STAY BELOW
SCA LEVELS AS WELL. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND REMAIN THIS WAY INTO SATURDAY. ATTM, DECIDED
TO GO W/15 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KTS MAINLY DURING THE DAY INTO THE
EVENING HRS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A SURGE UP TO 0.5 FT WHICH PUSHES THE TIDE UP
AT BAR HARBOR. A LOOK AT THE LOCAL MODEL RUN HERE AT THE OFFICE
SHOWED NO COASTAL FLOODING. SOME MINOR SPLASH COULD OCCUR BUT NOT
WORTH A HEADLINE ATTM. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE SURGE TO COME UP THE
PENOBSCOT INTO BANGOR WHICH COULD CAUSE THE GAGE THERE TO HIT
ACTION STAGE OF 11.0 FT. THIS SURGE IS TO SHORT LIVED AND AFTER
COLLABORATING W/NERFC, THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY
ISSUES. A SURGE OF OVER A FOOT AND HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE NEEDED
FOR FLOODING TO OCCUR PAST ON PAST HISTORY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED BY THE LATER CREWS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/HASTINGS/HEWITT
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/HASTINGS/HEWITT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
315 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN IN A COOL PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS
THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER FAR NE ONTARIO...WHICH WILL BE
MOVING INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT...MAINTAINS THE WNW TO NW FLOW OVER THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE GUSTY WNW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT...BUT STILL
REMAIN ABOUT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES FROM DRAMATICALLY DROPPING. WHILE MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON...MODEL RH FIELDS AND
SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THE LARGE AREA OF OVC LOW CLOUD COVER IN
NW ONTARIO AND NE MANITOBA WILL SWING INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA TO
REFLECT THIS. THE CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL HELP
BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES...SO THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ACROSS OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER...IF THE CLOUD COVER DOES NOT
MATERIALIZE...MAY NEED TO DECREASE THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THURSDAY LOOKS PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S
TO NEAR 50 DEGREES. THERE WILL BE NW WINDS OF ABOUT 5 TO 15 MPH.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
INTO THE NORTHLAND.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET EARLY...WITH A CHANCE
FOR RAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...AND PASS EAST
AND SOUTH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH WILL KEEP THE NORTHLAND MAINLY
DRY. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE SNOWBELT OF ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE COLUMN IS RELATIVELY DRY SO WE DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION.
THE FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. WE FOLLOWED THE SLOWER ECMWF AND DELAYED ANY PRECIP ACROSS
OUR CWA UNTIL SUNDAY. AN UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
A SOUTHERN WAVE WILL DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW MONDAY AND TRACK IT
NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LOOKS UNLIKELY ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND.
WE MAY BE ABLE TO PULL POPS LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR MOST AREAS IF
THE ECMWF VERIFIES...IT IT LOOKING DRIER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT FROM THE MID FORTIES TO LOWER
FIFTIES FRIDAY...AND WARM MAINLY INTO THE FIFTIES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
MVFR CEILINGS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH
SCATTERED CLOUDS FROM 3KFT TO 5KFT CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THE MVFR
CEILINGS OVER THE NORTH WERE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF THINNING...BUT
WE EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS TO REMAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOWER STRATUS WAS MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH
ONTARIO AND MANITOBA TOWARD NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WE HAVE BROUGHT
THESE CLOUDS INTO KINL/KHIB TONIGHT...AND AS FAR SOUTH AS KDLH IN
A TEMPO GROUP. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR SOUTH THESE
LOWER CEILINGS WILL GET...BUT THE RAP AND EVEN THE 12Z NAM DO SHOW
AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL RH TONIGHT. LATER UPDATES WILL BE ABLE TO
BETTER DEPICT THESE LOWER CEILINGS AND THEY PROGRESS TOWARD THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE SO
EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 32 48 32 48 / 0 0 0 0
INL 33 45 33 47 / 10 10 0 0
BRD 30 50 29 52 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 31 51 27 53 / 0 0 0 0
ASX 34 50 34 51 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ121-146>148.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1239 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
VERTICALLY STACKED SFC/UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A
DEEP CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. SAT
ANIMATION SHOWS A SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WITH A
DECREASE IN THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE SWRN CWA. UPPER JET
AXIS STRETCHES FROM ERN SASK INTO NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. AREAS THAT
HAVE A DECOUPLED BDRY LYR HAVE RADIATED INTO LOW TO MID 30S. CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO FORM IN LINEAR BANDS WITHIN FAST FLOW ALOFT WITH BASES
LOWEST OVER ARROWHEAD WHERE AT LEAST SOME PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...ANOMALOUS CIRCULATION CENTER OVER ONTARIO
WILL ADVECT EAST NORTHEAST INTO NRN QUEBEC THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
CONVERGENCE ALOFT WILL INCREASE FROM NRN PLAINS INTO UPPER MIDWEST
AS MID LVL RIDGING DEVELOPS. A SFC HIGH WILL RIDGE SOUTHEAST FROM
WRN CANADA INTO THE CWA. SIMULTANEOUSLY DEEP LAYER DRYING WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA EXCEPT A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE
ARROWHEAD THIS MORNING. DEEPENING MIXED LAYER TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL RESULT INS GUSTY WINDS. THIS IS INDICATED WITHIN BUFKIT
MOMENTUM PROFILES AND VARIOUS SNDGS. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY AND TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S...BUT
WILL WARM INTO THE 50S ON SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN
CARVE ITSELF OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND...IT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BACK INTO THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE
PRECIPITATION AND THE AMOUNTS. THE GFS IS FASTER...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GEM HOLD THE PRECIPITATION OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WE
HAVE FOLLOWED A COMPROMISE SOLUTION...FAVORING SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS A GREAT DEAL OF MODEL DIFFERENCE EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...WITH THE
GFS BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS ALSO QUITE DIFFERENT AMONGST THE MODELS
LENDING TO FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION. HIGHS
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
MVFR CEILINGS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH
SCATTERED CLOUDS FROM 3KFT TO 5KFT CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THE MVFR
CEILINGS OVER THE NORTH WERE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF THINNING...BUT
WE EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS TO REMAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOWER STRATUS WAS MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH
ONTARIO AND MANITOBA TOWARD NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WE HAVE BROUGHT
THESE CLOUDS INTO KINL/KHIB TONIGHT...AND AS FAR SOUTH AS KDLH IN
A TEMPO GROUP. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR SOUTH THESE
LOWER CEILINGS WILL GET...BUT THE RAP AND EVEN THE 12Z NAM DO SHOW
AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL RH TONIGHT. LATER UPDATES WILL BE ABLE TO
BETTER DEPICT THESE LOWER CEILINGS AND THEY PROGRESS TOWARD THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE SO
EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 47 33 48 33 / 0 0 0 0
INL 45 34 46 33 / 10 10 10 0
BRD 51 32 50 31 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 50 31 51 31 / 0 0 0 0
ASX 49 35 50 34 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ146-147.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-
145-148.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAP
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
753 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 753 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
With elevated instability quickly decreasing across the forecast
area, the threat for any thunderstorms capable of heavy rain is
shifting south into southeast KS and the MO Ozarks. However, a band
of deep frontogenesis across northern KS is causing a band of
moderate rain to develop over that area. RAP and NAM indicate this
frontogenetical band will shift southeast toward the KC area through
midnight, and could bring some enhanced rainfall rates around a half
inch per hour into the area. Wouldn`t be surprising to see a few
areas still see between an half inch and inch of additional rainfall
overnight with locally higher amounts. This probably won`t be enough
to cause significant flooding concerns, but given the rain that fell
earlier, will go ahead and hold on to the flood watch for the time
being.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
Round two of widespread rain is starting to get under way across
southern and central KS this afternoon ahead of an upper-level jet
streak coming out of the Southern Rockies. This source of deep
synoptic lift will bring an increase in precipitation this evening as
it interacts with a sloped frontal boundary. This feature stretches
from a surface front just south of the forecast area to an 850
boundary near the US 36 corridor. Most likely area to see heavy
rainfall this evening will be near and just north of the surface
front, or generally south of the US 50 corridor where the better
synoptic scale ascent and elevated instability will reside. However,
areas further north could also see several tenths of an inch of rain,
possibly 1"+ given the presence of the elevated boundary and
precipitable water values as high as 1.5". These areas also received
quite a bit of rainfall last night, anywhere from 2" to 5",
particularly from Atchison Co KS into the northern KC metro, and
another area along the Missouri River east of US 65. This has left
flood guidance very low across these areas, and even less than an
inch of rain could lead to a few flood problems there. Will therefore
keep the flood watch going for much of the area, but will cancel the
far northern counties where projected rainfall amounts combined with
last night`s rain don`t suggest any serious flooding concerns.
On Friday the sloped boundary in place will make steady southward
progress as a cold front, shifting the threat for heavy rain to the
south of the forecast area. Still expect off and on showers through
the afternoon for areas near and south of a KC to Moberly line until
drier air is able to filter in from the north later in the day. None
of this activity is likely to cause any additional flooding but could
prevent areas of ongoing flooding from otherwise receding. These off
and on showers will make it difficult to warm up and many areas will
struggle to rise out of the lower 50s.
Saturday and Saturday night still appear dry for most areas though
there could be some straggling showers over central Missouri.
Cool Canadian airmass will keep temperatures in the 50s across the
area.
Sunday and Monday will see significant amplification of an upper
level trough to the west, a process that will send a deepening
surface low tracking somewhere near the I-44 corridor Monday and
Monday night. This pattern would lead to a major winter storm for our
area if it were 2 or 3 months later, but will instead bring a round of
widespread rain to much of the region Sunday night and Monday. Some
areas could see up to an inch or so of rain particularly east of the
I-35 corridor. Deep ridging behind this system will provide a drying
trend for the remainder of the work week with temperatures gradually
rising into the lower 70s by Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
2nd round of rain is moving into the area this evening and will
persist for several hours into the early morning. Leading edge
contains some thunderstorms that will mainly affect IXD and SZL areas
and points south from there. Threat for thunderstorms should diminish
after 3 or 4 hours leaving occasional showers through the early
morning. Ceilings will fall to IFR and should stay there for much of
the night for MCI and points south. These low clouds will clear out
from north to south through the morning, with this clearing line probably
making it through MCI but may not make it as far south as MKC or IXD
before it stalls by late morning. Occasional showers will move across
areas near and south of a MKC to COU line through the afternoon.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLOOD WATCH through Friday evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-103>105.
MO...FLOOD WATCH through Friday evening FOR MOZ028>032-037>040-
043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Hawblitzel
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
840 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
.UPDATE...
EARLY UPDATE TO ADD SHOWERS TO CARTER AND E POWDER RIVER COUNTIES
THROUGH 18Z PER BOWMAN RADAR. HRRR NOT HANDLING SHOWERS VERY WELL
PER CURRENT RADAR AS THE MODEL DOES NOT HAVE THEM IN CARTER AND
POWDER RIVER COUNTIES. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY BASED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
CLOUDS WERE DUE TO LIFT FROM THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF UPPER JET.
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH BACKDOOR FRONT
EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAJORITY OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
AREA AFTER 18Z. ARTHUR
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...
MILD AUTUMN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH THE WARMEST AIR AND
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S F IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY
WHERE WINDS WILL TAKE ON A WESTERLY COMPONENT FOR A WHILE. THAT IS
EXPECTED AS A MODEST NORTHWEST-FLOW SHORTWAVE PULLS A WEAK FRONTAL
ZONE EASTWARD...AIDING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN FAR SOUTHEAST MT DURING
THE MORNING TODAY.
THE FRONT WILL SLOSH BACK SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND HIGHS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER /THOUGH NOT COLD/ ON THURSDAY WITH EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AND
MORE CLOUD COVER...INCLUDING POSSIBLE STRATUS. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE BY THURSDAY EVENING WHEN
A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION. THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW
LIFTED INDICES OF 0 TO -2 C FROM LIVINGSTON TO SHERIDAN. WE MAY BE
IN LINE TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST IF THAT IS
A STEADY THEME FOR ANOTHER MODEL CYCLE OR TWO. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
PRIMARILY RELIED ON THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR THIS PACKAGE AS IT
HAS HAD MORE CONSISTENCY THAN THE GFS...AND ALSO SET THE TONE FOR
WHAT THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD. THE TWO MODELS ARE BASICALLY IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND DEPICTING SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY TRACKING NW TO SE ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY AND THEN CARVING
OUT A BROADER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY SATURDAY
EVENING AS MORE ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT NOT
THAT COLD AS THE AIR WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN.
MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE QUITE A BIT BY MONDAY WITH THE GFS
TRACKING A DECENT SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN BUT THE
ECMWF KEEPS THIS FEATURE MUCH FURTHER NORTH IN CANADA WITH ANTI-
CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILING OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. THE GFS THEN
TRANSITIONS TO A VERY FAST PROGRESSIVE FLOW OF SHORT WAVES WHILE
THE ECMWF INDICATES RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. AS MENTIONED ABOVE I
WILL RELY MAINLY ON THE ECMWF AT THIS POINT DUE TO RECENT
CONSISTENCY...BUT CONFIDENCE MOVING PAST THE WEEKEND IS RATHER
LOW. BT
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. NO AVIATION HAZARDS
ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL CEILINGS BETWEEN KMLS
AND KBHK EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SPRINKLES. BT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 076 046/062 043/066 046/069 045/059 041/058 043/059
0/B 01/E 20/B 02/W 22/W 11/B 11/N
LVM 076 042/065 039/068 043/066 038/056 037/056 038/057
0/B 02/W 10/U 04/W 32/W 21/B 11/N
HDN 077 043/067 042/067 044/072 043/061 039/059 041/063
0/B 01/B 31/B 02/W 32/W 21/B 11/N
MLS 069 040/063 042/065 046/072 043/062 039/059 038/062
1/B 00/B 22/W 11/U 11/B 21/B 11/N
4BQ 073 042/063 042/064 045/073 042/060 038/058 037/060
2/W 01/B 32/W 11/U 31/B 21/B 11/B
BHK 062 036/057 037/058 042/069 041/059 035/054 035/058
2/W 10/B 13/W 11/B 21/B 21/B 11/N
SHR 077 043/066 041/065 042/072 041/057 035/058 034/059
0/B 01/B 31/B 01/U 43/W 21/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
800 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
.UPDATE...
EARLY UPDATE TO ADD SHOWERS TO CARTER AND E POWDER RIVER COUNTIES
THROUGH 18Z PER BOWMAN RADAR. HRRR NOT HANDLING SHOWERS VERY WELL
PER CURRENT RADAR AS THE MODEL DOES NOT HAVE THEM IN CARTER AND
POWDER RIVER COUNTIES. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY BASED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
CLOUDS WERE DUE TO LIFT FROM THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF UPPER JET.
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH BACKDOOR FRONT
EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAJORITY OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
AREA AFTER 18Z. ARTHUR
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...
MILD AUTUMN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH THE WARMEST AIR AND
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S F IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY
WHERE WINDS WILL TAKE ON A WESTERLY COMPONENT FOR A WHILE. THAT IS
EXPECTED AS A MODEST NORTHWEST-FLOW SHORTWAVE PULLS A WEAK FRONTAL
ZONE EASTWARD...AIDING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN FAR SOUTHEAST MT DURING
THE MORNING TODAY.
THE FRONT WILL SLOSH BACK SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND HIGHS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER /THOUGH NOT COLD/ ON THURSDAY WITH EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AND
MORE CLOUD COVER...INCLUDING POSSIBLE STRATUS. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE BY THURSDAY EVENING WHEN
A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION. THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW
LIFTED INDICES OF 0 TO -2 C FROM LIVINGSTON TO SHERIDAN. WE MAY BE
IN LINE TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST IF THAT IS
A STEADY THEME FOR ANOTHER MODEL CYCLE OR TWO. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
PRIMARILY RELIED ON THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR THIS PACKAGE AS IT
HAS HAD MORE CONSISTENCY THAN THE GFS...AND ALSO SET THE TONE FOR
WHAT THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD. THE TWO MODELS ARE BASICALLY IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND DEPICTING SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY TRACKING NW TO SE ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY AND THEN CARVING
OUT A BROADER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY SATURDAY
EVENING AS MORE ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT NOT
THAT COLD AS THE AIR WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN.
MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE QUITE A BIT BY MONDAY WITH THE GFS
TRACKING A DECENT SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN BUT THE
ECMWF KEEPS THIS FEATURE MUCH FURTHER NORTH IN CANADA WITH ANTI-
CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILING OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. THE GFS THEN
TRANSITIONS TO A VERY FAST PROGRESSIVE FLOW OF SHORT WAVES WHILE
THE ECMWF INDICATES RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. AS MENTIONED ABOVE I
WILL RELY MAINLY ON THE ECMWF AT THIS POINT DUE TO RECENT
CONSISTENCY...BUT CONFIDENCE MOVING PAST THE WEEKEND IS RATHER
LOW. BT
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. NO AVIATION HAZARDS
ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL CEILINGS BETWEEN KMLS
AND KBHK EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SPRINKLES. BT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 076 046/062 043/066 046/069 045/059 041/058 043/059
0/B 01/E 20/B 02/B 22/W 11/B 11/N
LVM 076 042/065 039/068 043/066 038/056 037/056 038/057
0/B 02/W 10/U 04/B 32/W 21/B 11/N
HDN 077 043/067 042/067 044/072 043/061 039/059 041/063
0/B 01/B 31/B 02/B 32/W 21/B 11/N
MLS 069 040/063 042/065 046/072 043/062 039/059 038/062
1/B 00/B 22/W 11/U 11/B 21/B 11/N
4BQ 073 042/063 042/064 045/073 042/060 038/058 037/060
2/W 01/B 32/W 11/U 31/B 21/B 11/B
BHK 062 036/057 037/058 042/069 041/059 035/054 035/058
2/W 10/B 13/W 11/B 21/B 21/B 11/N
SHR 077 043/066 041/065 042/072 041/057 035/058 034/059
0/B 01/B 31/B 01/U 43/W 21/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
923 AM PDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE
REGION TODAY AND INTERACT WITH REMNANT MOISTURE FROM A DECAYING
TROPICAL SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER MOHAVE COUNTY ON THURSDAY BEFORE DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...RECENT RADAR LOOPS SHOWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AROUND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FROM COTTONWOOD COVE TO
LAKE HAVASU AND AREAS TO THE EAST OVER MOHAVE COUNTY. THIS MATCHES
FAIRLY WELL WITH THE INHERITED POP/WX GRIDS BUT AN UPDATE WAS MADE
TO TRIM CLOUDS AND POPS GOING TOWARD TWENTYNINE PALMS WHERE IT WAS
MOSTLY CLEAR. THE 12Z GFS AND LATEST HRRR SUPPORT THE REST OF THE
FORECAST TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ANY SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
155 AM PDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...RADAR SHOWS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MOHAVE AND FAR NE CLARK COUNTY THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER PER
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS AND HAS BEEN LARGELY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEST. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WE WILL BE PRIMARILY DEALING WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND ITS INTERACTION WITH
MOISTURE FROM A DECAYING TROPICAL SYSTEM. SOUTHERN SAN BERNARDINO
AND MOHAVE COUNTIES CONTINUE TO BE WHERE MODELS FORECAST THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE AREAS FURTHER WEST AND
NORTH WILL EITHER REMAIN DRY OR AT BEST...SEE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MODEL QPF FORECASTS GENERATE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITHIN THE DEEPER MOISTURE POOL OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA WITH THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE PUSH JUST BRUSHING BY THE SOUTHEAST CWA. THIS
WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WITHIN THE
FORECAST AREA. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY CALLS FOR
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/MOJAVE DESERT WILL LIE UNDER A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
WITH THE HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL STATES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH WILL HAVE SOME
BEARING ON OUR WEATHER. A DEEPER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO STRONG NORTH
BREEZES SUNDAY/MONDAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. LESS
AMPLIFIED SOLUTION MEANS LITTLE CHANGE. INHERITED TEMPERATURE AND
WIND FORECAST LOOKS FINE SO MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE.
BY DAY 7 (TUESDAY) MODELS START TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN. PROXIMITY OF STRONG WESTERLY JET POSITIONED TO OUR NORTHERN
ACROSS OREGON/IDAHO COULD START GENERATING STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT NORTHEAST-EAST WIND IN THE
AFTERNOON. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15 KFT THROUGH THE DAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WIND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY. REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM A DECAYING TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHERN
SAN BERNARDINO AND MOHAVE COUNTIES THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-40.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ADAIR
PREV DISCUSSION...SALMEN/PIERCE
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
233 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR ON NORTHEAST
WINDS FOR THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW INTO FRIDAY AND THEN
MOVE OFF THE COAST BY THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A RETURN TO WARMER AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE STALLING AND MOVING BACK TO
THE NORTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A WEAK
IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
NO CONVECTION HAS YET TO DEVELOP EVEN WITH PEAK HEATING UNDERWAY.
A COLD FRONT WAS STILL NEAR THE VIRGINIA-NORTH CAROLINA BORDER
AND ALONG THE TENNESSEE APPALACHIANS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
A BETTER SOUTHERLY PUSH TONIGHT AND SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK. A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW AND A RATHER DRY
COLUMN WILL CONTINUE TO GREATLY INHIBIT CONVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THIS EVE GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST A
FEW MORE HOURS WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES AROUND 1300 J/KG. THE
DRY AIR AND INVERTED V SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY
DEEPER CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP...HOWEVER...THE PROSPECTS
FOR DEEP CONVECTION ARE VERY REMOTE.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAD A COUPLE LOCATIONS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
OF 90 DEGREES AT MID AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NO RECORD HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL...NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS DATE ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER
70S...SO AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON FOR SURE. MOST OF THE
BEACHES WILL STABILIZE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SEABREEZE REMAINS PINNED TO THE COAST GIVEN
THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TONIGHT...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST ZONES
NEAR THE MIDNIGHT HOUR AND SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE FRONT WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
AND MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS. LOWS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ALTHOUGH
SOME OF THE BEACHES MAY HANG ONTO MID 60S. BEHIND THE FRONT...
DEWPOINTS WILL FALL FROM THE MID AND UPPER 60S TO THE 50S. A FEW
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S MAY SNEAK INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
ZONES BY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH EMANATING FROM GREAT LAKES TROUGHING AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD FRONTAL
ZONE WILL EXTEND FROM WESTERN TEXAS ACROSS THE DELMARVA. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POPS CREEPING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A DECENT JET MAX TRAVERSING THIS AREA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND I DID FEEL INCLINED TO ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERNMOST ZONES LATE. THIS MATCHES
ADJACENT OFFICES A LITTLE BETTER AS WELL. I CERTAINLY DO NOT EXPECT
A FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL WASHOUT BY ANY STRETCH. REGARDING
TEMPERATURES...ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ARE NECESSARY MAINLY TO
MATCH TRENDS OF GUIDANCE...SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR FRIDAY AM AND WARMER
FOR SATURDAY AM VIA MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE
EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD. HOW FAR SOUTH IT SAGS TO DETERMINE
PRECIP CHANCES AND THE DEVIATIONS FROM THE OTHERWISE WARM-TRENDING
LONG TERM. HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GETS WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW
MUCH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GETS FORTIFIED BY THE
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH AND NORTHERN
BRANCH DISTURBANCE EXITING NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THIS DISTURBANCE IS
ALREADY MOVING OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY SO TOO SHOULD THE CONFLUENCE.
THUS IT SEEMS THAT THE FARTHEST SOUTH GFS SOLUTION IS LIKELY
ERRONEOUS EVEN THOUGH IT HAS SOME SUPPORT BY THE CANADIAN MODEL. WPC
SFC PROGS RATHER SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE IN ADDITION TO SHOWING THE
BOUNDARY WASHING OUT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...AN APPEALING
COMPROMISE. SATURDAY THUS LOOKS WARM AND RAIN-FREE FOLLOWED BY A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN POPS AND A TEMPERING OF HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT
OTHERWISE STILL LOOK A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. INCREASING
AMPLITUDE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPING OFF EAST
COAST AND DEEP TROUGH DIGGING INTO MS VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME LATE DAY WEATHER ON TUESDAY
WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THE UPPER WAVE
MAY TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE
WRF MODEL IS MODESTLY ROBUST WITH CONVECTION BREAKING OUT AFTER 20Z.
THE HRRR MODEL ONLY SHOWS ONE OR TWO CELLS DEVELOPING IN OUR CWA.
WILL ADD VCSH TO THE FLO TAF...BUT THAT MAY BE A STRETCH.
TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION. ONLY WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH
IT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...MOST PROMINENT IN THE
MORNING AS THE INVERSION BREAKS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND THEN NE WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A BRIEF NE SURGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THU MORNING.
HOWEVER WINDS AND SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH HEADLINE CRITERIA.
HIGHEST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE 15 TO 20 KT WITH INFREQUENT
GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE
OUTERMOST WATERS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL START OFF A BIT CHOPPY
AS A DECENT NORTHEAST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL BE IN PLACE. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SEAS OF 2-4 FEET FOR A FEW HOURS. THE FLOW WILL
DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND
EVEN TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BY EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST BY DAYS END FRIDAY BUT HOVER AROUND TEN
KNOTS OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL DROP TO 1-2 FEET BY THIS TIME
AS WELL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF IF NOT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE PRESSURE
PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE QUITE WEAK-THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREFRONTAL REGIME AHEAD
OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY IS PROGGED BY SOME MODELS TO
CROSS PART OR ALL OF THE FORECAST ZONES OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO
A VEER TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. HOWEVER IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY
GIVEN THE PATTERN ALOFT THAT THIS FRONT EITHER ONLY CROSSES PART OF
THE REGION OR REMAINS TO OUR NORTH ALTOGETHER. NO REAL SWELLS GET
GENERATED SO SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE JUST A 2-3 FT WIND WAVE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...THE FULL MOON IS TODAY. LATEST INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THE CAPE FEAR RIVER IN DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON WILL BRIEFLY
NEAR COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND 10 PM TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...PREDICTED TIDAL DEPARTURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING HIGHER THAN
OBSERVED. WE WOULD NEED A DEPARTURE OF ABOUT 0.35 FT TO REACH
CRITERIA. GIVEN THIS REQUIRED DEPARTURE IS MUCH HIGHER THAN OBSERVED
DEPARTURES THIS MORNING AND EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PRIOR HIGH
TIDE LAST NIGHT...WILL HOLD OFF ON A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...BUT
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WATER LEVELS ALONG THE BEACHES WILL BE ELEVATED
THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COINCIDE WITH A MODEST
NORTHEAST SURGE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME...THE TIDE IS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED MINOR COASTAL FLOOD
THRESHOLDS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RJD/DL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
130 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR ON NORTHEAST
WINDS FOR THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW INTO FRIDAY AND THEN
MOVE OFF THE COAST BY THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A RETURN TO WARMER AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE STALLING AND MOVING BACK TO
THE NORTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM WEDNESDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE
EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. A COLD FRONT WAS STILL WELL
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA...ALONG THE VIRGINIA AND TENNESSEE
APPALACHIANS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A BETTER SOUTHERLY
PUSH TONIGHT AND SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE
DAYBREAK THU. A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW AND A RATHER DRY COLUMN WILL
SERVE TO GREATLY INHIBIT CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...STRONG INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS
TEMPS REACH THE MID AND UPPER 80S. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES SHOULD
BE UP AROUND 1500 J/KG. THE DRY AIR AND INVERTED V SOUNDINGS DO
SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY DEEPER CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP. WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE POPS TO JUST ABOVE THRESHOLD FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT THAT WHAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST AND CONFINED
TO VERY LATE IN THE DAY AND TONIGHT.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY OCTOBER ARE IN THE UPPER 70S...SO
WE WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...EVEN AT THE BEACHES WHICH WILL BE
COOLEST AS A SEABREEZE DEVELOPS...BUT REMAINS PINNED TO THE COAST
GIVEN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WE WILL HOWEVER BE SHORT OF ANY
RECORD HIGHS.
TONIGHT...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER BY DAYBREAK. THE FRONT WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR...BUT
MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS. LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
BEACHES MAY HANG ONTO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
OF THE AREA FIRST THING THURSDAY MORNING...DRIVEN BY CONFLUENCE
ALOFT IN A SPLIT FLOW REGIME. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THIS FEATURE...AND WHILE OVERALL CAA IS MINIMAL...TEMPS
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK...BUT HIGHS WILL
STILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH 80-83 COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY...BUT A DRY COLUMN
WILL ALLOW FOR A COOL NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING TO 60
OR BELOW AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. AS THE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER
OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY...500MB RIDGING BEGINS TO BLOSSOM FROM THE GULF
COAST...AND THE FRONT GETS PUSHED BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT. THE GFS SUGGESTS SOME PRECIP MAY OCCUR ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...BUT IT IS THE OUTLIER...AND LIMITED FORCING/DRY COLUMN
SUGGEST ANOTHER DRY DAY ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER FOR BOTH MAX/MIN THAN ON THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE UPCOMING
WKND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...AND THEN STALLS IN
THE VICINITY. A FEW DAYS AGO...IT APPEARED LIKELY THAT THIS FRONT
WOULD WORK INTO THE CWA BY LATE SATURDAY WHILE BEING DRIVEN BY A
NORTHERN STREAM VORTICITY LOBE PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
FEATURE THANKS TO A RAPIDLY BUILDING RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OF AN
ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH DIVING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. IT WILL BE A
BATTLE BETWEEN THIS BUILDING RIDGE AND THE SOUTHERN PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT. THE RIDGE TENDS TO WIN OUT IN THESE SCENARIOS...BUT THE
TIMING COULD BE JUST SLOW ENOUGH TO AT LEAST ALLOW FOR SOME
UNSETTLED WEATHER LOCALLY.
FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THE FRONT ALONG OR JUST NORTH
OF THE CWA SAT/SUN...BEFORE LIFTING IT BACK TO THE NORTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-LEVEL
PATTERN. THIS SUGGESTS THAT SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY LOCALLY BUT
WITH SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES...BUT WITH LIMITED QPF. DRYING WILL OCCUR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH. THE CLOUDS AND SOME
PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE
CLIMO...DURING THE WKND. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THE 6-10 DAY TEMP OUTLOOK FROM CPC IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE WITH NEARLY THE ENTIRE EASTERN SEABOARD COVERED IN A 70%
CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE
WRF MODEL IS MODESTLY ROBUST WITH CONVECTION BREAKING OUT AFTER 20Z.
THE HRRR MODEL ONLY SHOWS ONE OR TWO CELLS DEVELOPING IN OUR CWA.
WILL ADD VCSH TO THE FLO TAF...BUT THAT MAY BE A STRETCH.
TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION. ONLY WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH
IT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...MOST PROMINENT IN THE
MORNING AS THE INVERSION BREAKS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND THEN NE WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A BRIEF NE SURGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THU MORNING.
HOWEVER WINDS AND SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH HEADLINE CRITERIA.
HIGHEST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20
KT. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM 2 FT TODAY TO 3 TO 4 FT LATE
TONIGHT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OVER...OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE WATERS TO START THE PERIOD...WITH GUSTY NE WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND
IT THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. THESE NE WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST...WEAKENING THE
GRADIENT AND CAUSING WINDS TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE EAST AT 5-10 KTS BY
FRIDAY MORNING. ON FRIDAY...THIS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE AND
WINDS BECOME SWLY...STILL AT 5-10 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS INITIALLY WILL
BE 2-4 FT ON THE STRONGER NE WINDS...BUT WILL FALL BACK TO 1-3 FT
MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS THE WIND SPEEDS DECREASE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL WAVER JUST NORTH OF THE
WATERS DURING THE WKND...LEAVING PRIMARILY LIGHT S/SW WINDS...BUT A
BRIEF TURN TO THE WEST OR NW IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. SPEEDS WILL BE ONLY 5-10 KTS REGARDLESS
OF DIRECTION. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2-3 FT BOTH DAYS OF THE
WKND...WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE SE SWELL AND A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE
COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL/RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
109 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
NO FURTHER CHANGED NEEDED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1024 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
STRATOCU AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN NW ONTARIO MOVING BACK SOUTHEAST
INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN FCST AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHEAST AND IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HALLOCK-FOSSTON-PARK
RAPIDS LINE THIS AFTN. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND MID CLOUDS OVER SW
HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA MOVING SOUTHEAST AND THESE THICKER MID CLOUDS
MAY IMPACT FAR SOUTHWESTERN FCST AREA AS WELL THIS AFTN. RAP MODEL
WANTS TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS IN THIS BAND TO NEAR OUR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN FCST AREA INTO THIS EVE. DID KEEP DRY FOR NOW. IN
BETWEEN SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND LIKELY SOME HEAT DRIVEN STRATOCU. DID
DECREASE SKY COVER SOMEWHAT IN THIS DRY ZONE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BY MID MORNING AGAIN BUT NOT AS WINDY AS
PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WESTERLY THIS
MORNING AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO FORECAST FINALLY TO
BEGIN MOVING EAST TODAY. UPPER LOW SHOULD BE IN EASTERN CANADA BY
THU AFTERNOON. FLAT AND SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL MOVE EAST, AMPLIFY SOME THU/THU NIGHT, THEN SHIFT INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 84 HOURS.
LOW LEVEL FLOW FORECAST MORE OUT OF THE NORTH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
THAN THE NORTHWEST AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS.
POCKETS OF MOISTURE CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHWEST ONTARIO. PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL CANADA. SO WILL GO
FOR MORE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ZONES THROUGH FRI.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR TODAY AND COUPLE DEGREES LOWER FOR THU.
WENT COOLER NORTHEAST AND WARMER SOUTHWEST FRI.
WINDS AT 850 HPA BACK OFF AND DEPTH OF ADIABATIC LAYER DECREASES
UNDER 850 HPA. WOULD EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO BE UNDER 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES
SATURDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SOUTH
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY/WINDY AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND
925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO OVER 30 KTS. IT WILL BE MILD...WITH +8 TO
+11C AT 850 MB. THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE AREA BY
SUN WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD FOR
SUNDAY...GIVEN A WESTERLY SFC WIND COMPONENT BEHIND THE FRONT
BISECTING THE AREA.
QUITE A RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF
REMAINING MOST AMPLIFIED WITH ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...THE GFS MAINTAINING A MORE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
WITH A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND
THE GEM IN BETWEEN. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS TEMPS WILL STAY ON THE
MILD SIDE...WITH RAINFALL CHANCES DEPENDENT ON HOW THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN EVOLVES. GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY...THERE IS NOT
MUCH CONFIDENCE ON THESE DETAILS YET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE TO DEAL WITH AS THERE ARE BANDS OVER
NW MN AND IN CENTRAL ND. THE MN CLOUDS ARE LOWER BUT IT APPEARS THEY
WILL MAINLY STAY JUST NORTH AND EAST OF KBJI AND KTVF. HOWEVER THEY
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THEY WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS STREAMING INTO CENTRAL ND ARE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL SO THEY WILL NOT AFFECT THE KFAR TAF AT ALL. IN BETWEEN THESE
TWO AREAS KGFK AND KDVL SHOULD SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUDS.
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST UP TO ABOUT 20KTS IN SPOTS THRU THE
AFTERNOON THEN BECOME LIGHT PRETTY QUICKLY BY EARLY EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...GODON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1026 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1024 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
STRATOCU AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN NW ONTARIO MOVING BACK SOUTHEAST
INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN FCST AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHEAST AND IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HALLOCK-FOSSTON-PARK
RAPIDS LINE THIS AFTN. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND MID CLOUDS OVER SW
HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA MOVING SOUTHEAST AND THESE THICKER MID CLOUDS
MAY IMPACT FAR SOUTHWESTERN FCST AREA AS WELL THIS AFTN. RAP MODEL
WANTS TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS IN THIS BAND TO NEAR OUR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN FCST AREA INTO THIS EVE. DID KEEP DRY FOR NOW. IN
BETWEEN SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND LIKELY SOME HEAT DRIVEN STRATOCU. DID
DECREASE SKY COVER SOMEWHAT IN THIS DRY ZONE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BY MID MORNING AGAIN BUT NOT AS WINDY AS
PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WESTERLY THIS
MORNING AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO FORECAST FINALLY TO
BEGIN MOVING EAST TODAY. UPPER LOW SHOULD BE IN EASTERN CANADA BY
THU AFTERNOON. FLAT AND SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL MOVE EAST, AMPLIFY SOME THU/THU NIGHT, THEN SHIFT INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 84 HOURS.
LOW LEVEL FLOW FORECAST MORE OUT OF THE NORTH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
THAN THE NORTHWEST AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS.
POCKETS OF MOISTURE CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHWEST ONTARIO. PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL CANADA. SO WILL GO
FOR MORE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ZONES THROUGH FRI.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR TODAY AND COUPLE DEGREES LOWER FOR THU.
WENT COOLER NORTHEAST AND WARMER SOUTHWEST FRI.
WINDS AT 850 HPA BACK OFF AND DEPTH OF ADIABATIC LAYER DECREASES
UNDER 850 HPA. WOULD EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO BE UNDER 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES
SATURDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SOUTH
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY/WINDY AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND
925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO OVER 30 KTS. IT WILL BE MILD...WITH +8 TO
+11C AT 850 MB. THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE AREA BY
SUN WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD FOR
SUNDAY...GIVEN A WESTERLY SFC WIND COMPONENT BEHIND THE FRONT
BISECTING THE AREA.
QUITE A RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF
REMAINING MOST AMPLIFIED WITH ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...THE GFS MAINTAINING A MORE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
WITH A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND
THE GEM IN BETWEEN. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS TEMPS WILL STAY ON THE
MILD SIDE...WITH RAINFALL CHANCES DEPENDENT ON HOW THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN EVOLVES. GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY...THERE IS NOT
MUCH CONFIDENCE ON THESE DETAILS YET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS ABOUT 30 MILES WIDE EXTENDED FROM SOUTH OF
GRAFTON ND TO BJI. BAND WAS MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS. SOME
MVFR CIGS AROUND 17 HUNDRED FT WAS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONES.
EXPECT THE MVFR CIG TO REMAIN OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONES FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS WAS OVER MAN AND WAS MOVING SOUTH AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. THE CLOUD DECK HAS NOT MOVED OVER AN OBS SITE IN MAN BUT
SUSPECT CIGS TO BE AROUND 35 HUNDRED FT. EXPECT THE DECK TO MOVE
INTO MUCH OF NORTHWEST MN THIS MORNING AND MAY REMAIN MUCH OF THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A GFK TO BJI LINE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...HOPPES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1005 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. FRONTAL/BAROCLINIC ZONE OSCILLATES IN OUR
VICINITY FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WELCOMED CALMER ENVIRONMENT.
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER OUR WAY THIS AFTERNOON. AT 12Z THE
925 MB DEW POINT AT ILN WAS 5C...WHILE RNK STILL AT 12C. THE LOWER
CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER WEST VIRGINIA. HELD CEILINGS
THE LONGEST OVER THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS.
WITH A COOLER TONIGHT...TOUGH CALL ON VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN
DEEP VALLEYS. WILL REEVALUATE TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL RETURN LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY...AS A FRONT
MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS...ALONG WITH MULTIPLE WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...WILL TRIGGER ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN...THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS.
FOR CONSISTENCY...HAVE NOT MADE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO POPS AND/OR
WEATHER.
TWEAKED THE MAXT/MINT GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. PERIOD WILL START WITH
FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE LEANED HARD ON THE RAP DATA FOR THIS ISSUANCE OF THE TAFS.
GIVEN THE RECENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND THE POST CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT IFR STRATUS TO BEGIN FORMING OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS...EXCEPT TOWARDS
THE HTS AREA...AND LEFT IT OUT OF THIS TERMINAL. STRATUS MAY HAVE
A HARD TIME MIXING OUT AFTER THE SUN COMES UP...AND MAY NOT REACH
VFR CEILINGS AGAIN AT CERTAIN SITES UNTIL 16Z OR LATER.
THINK THE WIND WILL STAY UP AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT...SO WILL NOT
ADD VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO THE FORECAST ON THE FRONT END OF
THE TAFS.
VFR EXPECTED AFTER THE STRATUS MIXES OUT. CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AND WILL SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT BEFORE 06Z AT EKN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM THROUGH 18Z. HIGH AFTER.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: STRATUS TIMING COULD VARY. THERE IS A CHANCE
IT DOES NOT FORM AT ALL.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 10/08/14
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M H H M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L M M M H
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
305 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVECTION FINALLY OUT OF THE CWA.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM A SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN OHIO MAY BE STALLED
OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND COAL FIELDS. EXPECT THIS TO SLOWLY
MOVE OUT AS WELL GIVEN THE PRESSURE RISES THAT WILL OCCUR OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. AS
MENTIONED IN THE AVIATION AFD...EXPECTING A LOW STRATUS DECK TO SET
UP OVER MOST OF THE CWA AND COULD LAST UNTIL 16Z TODAY IN PLACES.
BY AFTERNOON...THE COLUMN WILL HAVE DRIED OUT SIGNIFICANTLY...AND
EXPECT ONLY SOME FLAT DIURNAL CUMULUS WITH MIXING TODAY. CLEARING IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL SHED SOME CLOUD
COVER INFLUENCE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AS WE HIT 12Z THURSDAY.
MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN GETTING HAMMERED THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS GIVEN
THE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WHICH IT PRESUMABLY DID NOT HANDLE WELL.
RIDING IT WITH MORE CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE SIMPLER ATMOSPHERIC SET UP.
IN THE END...LOOKING AT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH SLIGHT VARIATIONS HERE AND THERE...RUNNING SLIGHTLY COOL IN A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL RETURN LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY...AS A FRONT
MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS...ALONG WITH MULTIPLE WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...WILL TRIGGER ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN...THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS.
FOR CONSISTENCY...HAVE NOT MADE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO POPS AND/OR
WEATHER.
TWEAKED THE MAXT/MINT GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. PERIOD WILL START WITH
FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE LEANED HARD ON THE RAP DATA FOR THIS ISSUANCE OF THE TAFS.
GIVEN THE RECENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND THE POST CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT IFR STRATUS TO BEGIN FORMING OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS...EXCEPT TOWARDS
THE HTS AREA...AND LEFT IT OUT OF THIS TERMINAL. STRATUS MAY HAVE
A HARD TIME MIXING OUT AFTER THE SUN COMES UP...AND MAY NOT REACH
VFR CEILINGS AGAIN AT CERTAIN SITES UNTIL 16Z OR LATER.
THINK THE WIND WILL STAY UP AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT...SO WILL NOT
ADD VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO THE FORECAST ON THE FRONT END OF
THE TAFS.
VFR EXPECTED AFTER THE STRATUS MIXES OUT. CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AND WILL SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT BEFORE 06Z AT EKN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM THROUGH 18Z. HIGH AFTER.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: STRATUS TIMING COULD VARY. THERE IS A CHANCE
IT DOES NOT FORM AT ALL.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 10/08/14
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M H M M M H M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M M M M M H
CKB CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L L L L M M
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
139 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG DISTURBANCE WHIPS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH WEAK COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN LATE
THURSDAY IN FAST ZONAL FLOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
CONVECTION STILL WORKING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AREA...BUT
SHOULD BE OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. DRY BEYOND. EXPECTING LOW
STRATUS TO FORM OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TORNADO WATCH HAS EXPIRED FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LINE OF
CONVECTION SHIFTING S AND SHOULD BE OUT OF CWA IN NEXT FEW HRS.
WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE IF LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG DEVELOPS AS SOME
OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. SHOULD STRATUS INDEED DEVELOP...THEN
IT MAY TAKE UNTIL MID MORNING FOR IT TO SCT OUT GIVEN INVERSION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ACTIVE WEATHER HOWEVER WILL
RETURN LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE
REGION. THIS...ALONG WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT...WILL TRIGGER ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH ANY STORMS.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN MODELS CONCERNING PLACEMENT OF
FRONT/TRACK OF WAVES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CONTINUED TO LEAN MORE
TOWARDS THE ECMWF/HPC SOLUN...KEEPING HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. PERIOD WILL START WITH
FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE LEANED HARD ON THE RAP DATA FOR THIS ISSUANCE OF THE TAFS.
GIVEN THE RECENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND THE POST CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT IFR STRATUS TO BEGIN FORMING OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS...EXCEPT TOWARDS
THE HTS AREA...AND LEFT IT OUT OF THIS TERMINAL. STRATUS MAY HAVE
A HARD TIME MIXING OUT AFTER THE SUN COMES UP...AND MAY NOT REACH
VFR CEILINGS AGAIN AT CERTAIN SITES UNTIL 16Z OR LATER.
THINK THE WIND WILL STAY UP AROUND 5KTS OVERNIGHT...SO WILL NOT
ADD VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO THE FORECAST ON THE FRONT END OF
THE TAFS.
VFR EXPECTED AFTER THE STRATUS MIXES OUT. CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AND WILL SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT BEFORE 06Z AT EKN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM THROUGH 18Z. HIGH AFTER.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: STRATUS TIMING COULD VARY. THERE IS A CHANCE
IT DOES NOT FORM AT ALL.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 10/08/14
UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H M H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H M M M M M M H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H M M
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/KTB/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
650 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE COMING TO AN END OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. THE LATEST HRRR DATA SUGGESTS ROUND TWO MAY BE SOME
REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING CLOSE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. FINALLY...ROUND
THREE IS JUST GETTING GOING OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AHEAD OF THE
MAIN PV MAX THAT IS EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO GROW UPSCALE AND MOVE EAST INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BASED ON HOW THIS IS LAID OUT...I HAVE
MADE DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THRU 03Z BASICALLY FROM HIGHWAY
75 WESTWARD...WITH POPS RAMPING BACK UP AFTER THAT. THE RAINS THAT
HAVE FALLEN THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN CONFINED LARGELY TO THE
COUNTIES BORDERING KANSAS...AND THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONFIGURATION IS IN GOOD SHAPE AS IS. THIS AREA WILL GET MORE
HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT...AND THUS FLOODING ISSUES MAY ARISE.
LACY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS/
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR-MASS COUPLED WITH MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD
ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH WIND/HAIL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
LIFTS INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER LOW. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE OK/KS BOARDER WHERE THE
HEAVIER RAIN IS EXPECTED...INCLUDING MODESTLY LOWER FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE.
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY SATURDAY AS SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS IN
RESPONSE TO MAIN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
HIGH THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO STABILIZE NORTH OF STALLED FRONT.
BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE
STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIVES OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BECOMING
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH SYSTEM BEFORE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST MONDAY EVENING. FLOODING AGAIN COULD
BECOME AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE THE HEAVIER
RAIN WITH THE INITIAL FRI/SAT RAIN EVENT. MILD/DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER TEXAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 64 68 48 59 / 80 90 80 50
FSM 67 81 60 64 / 40 80 90 80
MLC 70 83 52 63 / 30 80 90 50
BVO 59 63 48 56 / 90 90 70 50
FYV 64 77 52 60 / 80 90 80 80
BYV 64 76 49 57 / 80 90 80 80
MKO 66 78 51 59 / 50 90 80 60
MIO 57 64 47 57 / 90 90 80 70
F10 68 78 50 59 / 50 80 80 50
HHW 69 86 61 72 / 20 50 80 60
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
OKZ057-OKZ058.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM....30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1144 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NE OK/NW AR AFTER 09-10Z. KFYV/KXNA AND KFSM WILL
MOST LIKELY BE AFFECTED...WITH SOME LOCALIZED MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR STORMS. CONVECTION SHOULD
PUSH EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 15Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014/
DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST..OTHER THAN TO
DELAY RAIN CHANCE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. ALSO RAISED MIN
TEMPS SOUTH AND CENTRAL GIVEN CURRENT DEWPOINTS.
LATEST 00Z WRF BLOWS PRECIP UP 10Z-15Z NE OK / NW AR.
LIKELY OVERBLOWN. LATEST HRRR ONLY A HINT OF SHRA IN
THAT TIME PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH WILL
LIKELY SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AFTER 09-10Z ACROSS PORTIONS
OF FAR NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR...MAINLY IMPACTING THE
KFYV/KXNA AND KFSM TAF SITES INTO THE MORNING HOURS. LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR STORMS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014/
DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
A GOOD 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
FRONT WILL STALL OVER AFOREMENTIONED AREA OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
SUFFICIENT SHEAR/ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. ANY ONGOING
STORMS WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY MID MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET
BEGINS TO DECREASE.
WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST. DEEPER MOISTURE
FROM REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WILL MERGE WITH UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. FLOODING COULD BECOME AN ISSUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
BEFORE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
STILL SOME BIG DIFFERENCES CONCERNING STRENGTH OF UPPER TROUGH
THAT MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
ECMWF MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH SYSTEM...COMPARED TO THE PROGRESSIVE
/WEAKER GFS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS. IF GFS BEGINS
TO TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF...POPS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE INCREASED
INCLUDING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME. ALSO...ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WOULD INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 64 88 68 87 / 30 20 20 30
FSM 66 87 65 87 / 40 20 10 10
MLC 70 88 71 88 / 20 10 10 10
BVO 57 88 63 86 / 30 20 30 40
FYV 56 82 60 85 / 40 20 20 20
BYV 56 80 62 84 / 40 20 30 30
MKO 66 87 66 88 / 30 20 10 20
MIO 57 83 65 85 / 40 20 40 40
F10 68 88 69 87 / 20 10 10 10
HHW 68 88 67 86 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...18
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
647 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
.UPDATE...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
DIFFICULT TAFS THIS PERIOD DUE TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF -SHRA/-TSRA
EXPECTED AND RELIED HEAVILY ON HRRR MODEL FOR TIMING. MCS
CURRENTLY OVER MO TO MOVE INTO MID STATE LATE THIS EVENING BUT
WEAKEN...WITH CURRENT SPEED HAVING -TSRA REACH CKV AROUND
0330Z...BNA AROUND 05Z...AND CSV BY 09Z. BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE ADDITIONAL -TSRA ARRIVES FRIDAY MORNING
WITH COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR BY FRI
MORNING AT ALL AIRPORTS...WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD BUT VARIABLE AND GUSTY NEAR -TSRA.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS THE TIMING FOR PRECIP
TONIGHT AND HOW FAR SOUTH STORMS WILL SINK. LEANING TOWARD THE
SOLUTION BEING PRESENTED BY NSSL`S 4KM WRF AS IT APPEARS TO BE
INITIALIZING BETTER THAN THE HRRR TODAY...WHICH MEANS SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS COULD SNEAK IN BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...WITH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA LIKELY SEEING STORMS
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 7AM. MONDAY MORNING LOOKS SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING WITH MODELS INDICATING THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTH ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND A SURFACE LOW
TRAVELLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF TN. STRONG STORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH THE THREAT BEING THE HIGHEST NORTH OF
I-40 BEFORE NOON AND SOUTH OF I-40 AFTER NOON. PWAT VALUES REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AROUND 1.8 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE AREA
DURING THE SHORT TERM...THIS COUPLED WITH THE WEST TO EAST
MOVEMENT OF STORMS POSSIBLY OVER THE SAME AREA OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE
THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING. SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE GFS INDICATES A SUBTLE NEGATIVE TILT TO THE TROUGH
AFTER IT CROSSES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WILL BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER TO MONDAY. THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE MONDAY EVENING. 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 65 KNOTS AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES. SOUNDINGS INDICATE DECENT LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AND BULK SHEAR...BUT LIMITED CAPE VALUES WITH THIS SYSTEM.
PWATS WILL SURGE AGAIN AND BRING A CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY
NIGHT...WPC QPF TOTALS ARE AROUND 6 INCHES FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS
AS THEY UNFOLD FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL. CONDITIONS DRY OUT AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1110 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.AVIATION...
WEAK GRADIENT SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA
WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSING EAST AND PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD. SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DOMINATE KLBB
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST RAP RUNS INSIST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL IMPACT WINDS AT KCDS...SHIFTING TO A NORTHEAST COMPONENT
SHORTLY...BUT WE ARE NOT SEEING MUCH TO CONVINCE US OF THIS YET
LOOKING AT THE WEST TEXAS MESONET ARRAY. SO WE HAVE OPTED FOR A
VARIABLE COMPONENT AT KCDS THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL LOW LEVEL
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST IS FIRMLY RE-ESTABLISHED BY MID MORNING. VFR
CONTINUING OF COURSE. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014/
AVIATION...
VFR WILL CONTINUE WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSING OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED
BY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AND ARE EXPECTED TO THICKEN AND LOWER JUST SLIGHTLY.
SURFACE TROUGH WILL DOMINATE AS WELL...ALTHOUGH A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT MAY SLIP INTO KCDS NEAR MIDNIGHT. EVEN IF IT DOES...WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT SO DO NOT PLAN TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS
TIME. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE A NOTCH
AND MAY BECOME GUSTY. ALSO DEFER MENTION WITHIN THE TAF ON THIS
FOR NOW BUT WILL READDRESS FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014/
SHORT TERM...
A QUIET 24 HOURS IN STORE FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA AS LOW-AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES FROM NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON TO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUD MOVING
THROUGH AND SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE MAY PUT A DAMPER ON THE ECLIPSE
VIEWING LATE TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TANGIBLE
EFFECT ON LOCAL WEATHER. A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED IN THE VICINITY
OF I-40 IN THE PANHANDLE WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND MAY
MAKE A BRIEF INCURSION INTO THE FCST AREA...BUT WITH NO UPPER LEVEL
IMPETUS WILL EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO DOMINATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE WARM AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS
AND NO SIGNIFICANT NET DIFFERENCE IN HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES.
LONG TERM...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MENTIONED ABOVE AND DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH
APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS. COULD SEE ENOUGH FORCING IF ANY LEAD
IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE...THAT
WHEN COMBINED WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR ONE INCH AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE INTO
THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL FURTHER INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT IN TANDEM
WITH AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT OUT OF THE PANHANDLE TO INCREASE
STORM CHANCES. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FORCING CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. THE MOST PROMINENT
TIME FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL COME LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY WHEN MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER LIFT IS REALIZED BETWEEN THE FRONT
AND UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE FAVORED LOCATION BEING ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS. TRAINING STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY GIVEN A NEAR-
PARALLEL ORIENTATION WITH THE STEERING FLOW ALOFT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AS THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH SWINGS EAST. MAY HAVE TO TRIM POPS A LITTLE QUICKER AFTER
12Z SATURDAY IF TRENDS CONTINUE IN PUSHING THIS FEATURE EAST OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS BY THEN...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION IN FOR ALL LOCALES AT
THIS POINT. A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD THEN ENSUE BY
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND SOUTH OF A SURFACE TROUGH WITH
BACKING FLOW ALOFT...BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THERE STILL REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT
SHOULD SEE ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE RETURN TO WARRANT SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION FOR STORMS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE QUESTIONS ARISE AS TO WHAT TYPE OF
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WITH POSSIBILITIES
RANGING ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO ON EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 50 87 54 86 55 / 0 0 10 20 30
TULIA 51 89 56 88 56 / 0 0 10 10 30
PLAINVIEW 53 89 58 87 58 / 0 0 10 10 30
LEVELLAND 55 89 58 87 59 / 0 0 10 20 20
LUBBOCK 55 89 61 86 61 / 0 0 10 10 20
DENVER CITY 58 89 58 87 59 / 0 0 10 20 20
BROWNFIELD 56 90 60 87 60 / 0 0 10 20 20
CHILDRESS 59 92 64 89 64 / 0 0 10 10 30
SPUR 57 91 61 88 62 / 0 0 10 10 20
ASPERMONT 59 92 63 88 65 / 0 0 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/05
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY TO
VIRGINIA TONIGHT BEFORE PASSING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE COAST EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
ANTICIPATED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND IT SHOULD ARRIVE IN OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT NORTH AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION. AS IT DOES SO, EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES. THE GFS SHOWS PRECIP STARTING AS EARLY AS THIS MORNING,
ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW BAND OF LOW AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
SLIDING NW INTO OUR REGION. WHILE THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE, AS
BOTH THE NAM AND RAP ALSO SHOW A NARROW BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS, THE
QUESTION REMAINS WHERE WILL THIS BAND DEVELOP. EXTRAPOLATING FROM
THE 06Z POSITION OF THE FRONT, FROM FAR SW KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA, AND GIVEN THE SLOW PROGRESS OF THIS FRONT, WOULD
EXPECT THIS BAND TO BE ACROSS DELMARVA OR EVEN JUST SOUTH OF OUR
CWA. THUS, DECREASED POPS THROUGH THE MORNING, NOT BRINGING IN ANY
LIKELY MENTION UNTIL AFTER 18Z.
WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER, EXPECT A RATHER CHILLY DAY, WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
OVERNIGHT, ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE UPPER LEVELS, AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
PROVIDING PROVIDING SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT EVEN AS FRONTOGENESIS IN
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS IS NEGLIGIBLE. THUS, EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STRATIFORM RAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT
BACK SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT, SHOULD SEE THE BEGINNINGS OF DRY AIR
ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS.
THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE SHOULD BE TEMPERED BY ABUNDANT CLOUD
CLOUD COVER. THUS, EXPECT LOWS TO BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN THIS MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 0000 UTC GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN HANDLING THE MID LEVEL
PATTERN BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS BRING A
SHORT WAVE OVERHEAD IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY RIDGING ON SUNDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS
OVERHEAD LATE ON SUNDAY. A SHARP LONG WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. A CUT OFF LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. THE GFS
IS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FEATURE, BRINGING IT TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY FOR THURSDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE CUT OFF LOW OVER
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ECMWF`S
SOLUTION IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN WHEN IT WAS MORE
SIMILAR TO THE GFS. WE WILL FAVOR THE GFS FOR NOW TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY.
IT SHOULD BE RAINING THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY
MORNING. THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY PULL OFF THE COAST
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW.
WE HAVE DECREASED THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES AT THAT TIME.
THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DRIFTING OFF THE COAST ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WARM ADVECTION FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN OUR
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES INTO OUR
REGION.
THE FORECAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD REMAINS ONE OF LOW
CONFIDENCE. IF THE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS CORRECT, WE MAY SEE SOME
DRYING FOR THURSDAY. HOWEVER, IF THE TREND OF THE LATEST ECMWF
PERSISTS, ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO THE
NORTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
READINGS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME MILD DUE TO THE
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S
AND 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BACK A BIT AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
LATE WEEK HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 45 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z. BY 15Z, MID
LEVEL CLOUDS, ALBEIT VFR CEILINGS, WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE CEILING WILL SLOWLY LOWER
THROUGH THE DAY, GENERALLY EXPECTING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO
SPREAD FROM SW TO NE. THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR -RA THROUGH OUT
THE TAF PERIOD, EXPECT THE PRIME PERIOD TO BE AFTER 18Z. WITH
SUNSET, COULD ALSO SEE SOME BR DEVELOPMENT, AND WOULD THEN EXPECT
TO SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE FRONT SHIFTS BACK SOUTH AFTER 06Z, COULD EVEN SEE IFR
VISIBILITIES. THE LARGEST THREAT FOR IFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION INCLUDING KILG, KMIV, AND
KACY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN MORNING RAIN.
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE WITH
CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR OR IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY AND TONIGHT,
THOUGH A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 20KT ARE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT. ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY FOG REDUCING
VISIBILITIES, ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. HOWEVER, AT THIS
TIME THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW LOW VISIBILITIES
WILL DROP.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH
25 KNOTS.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.
TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY DUE TO
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FEET.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/JOHNSON
MARINE...IOVINO/JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
315 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
07Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTER NOW IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW RUNS
THROUGH WESTERN CANADA AND THEN DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/NE
STATES AROUND A LARGE CLOSED LOW FEATURE SPINNING OVER EASTERN
CANADA. ONLY REAL WEATHER MAKER IN THE COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING IS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH (PART OF THE REMNANTS OF EASTERN PACIFIC
HURRICANE SIMON) THAT IS EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND HELPING TO FUEL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM OKLAHOMA TO THE TN
VALLEY. CLOSER TO HOME...MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA ARE NOW UNDER AN ELONGATED WEST TO EAST ORIENTED UPPER
RIDGE WHICH HAS HELPED TO SUPPRESS THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW AND ALL
ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FL PENINSULA. COLUMN
ABOVE OUR HEADS IS FAIRLY DRY PER 10/00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE WITH
A DEFINED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 600MB.
AT THE SURFACE...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM A HIGH CENTER OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS GA/FL PANHANDLE AND INTO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS POSITION PUTS OUR FORECAST AREA
WITHIN CLOCKWISE SYNOPTIC EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THIS
AXIS. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING ARE SEASONABLE IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW PORTIONS OF PINELLAS COUNTY
AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR ARE HOLDING IN THE MIDDLE 70S DUE TO THE
PARTIAL FLOW OFF THE STILL WARMER WATERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
WELL FOLKS...THIS FORECASTER ALWAYS TRIES TO FIND SOMETHING
INTERESTING TO WRITE ABOUT AND EXPAND UPON...BUT TO BE HONEST...IT
IS DIFFICULT WITH THIS PARTICULAR PATTERN AND HOW QUIET IT SHOULD BE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD OVER THE PENINSULA WITH
ITS INFLUENCE/HEIGHTS INCREASING BY A FEW DM DURING THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AND RIDGE AXIS EXTENSION SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF WILL ONLY
SLIGHTLY MIGRATE EASTWARD...KEEPING MUCH OF OUR REGION WITHIN A
SYNOPTIC EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL BE MOST DEFINED TO
THE SOUTH OF I-4...FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE RIDGE AXIS.
THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND INCREASED
SUPPRESSION WILL ONLY HELP TO FURTHER DRY OUT THE COLUMN WITHIN THE
MID-LEVELS. THE ONLY REAL APPRECIABLE MOISTURE WILL BE WHAT ARRIVES
BELOW AROUND 850MB OFF THE ATLANTIC WITHIN THE SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN
EASTERLY FLOW. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BASICALLY BE JUST
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW-SCT SHALLOW CU FIELD EACH LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY LATE IN THE DAY...DIURNAL MIXING
WILL LIKELY EXPAND THE BOUNDARY LAYER ABOVE THIS LAYER OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE AND ERODE THE CU FIELD...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY
EARLY EVENING. WITH ESSENTIALLY NO SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR LARGE SCALE
ASCENT...AND A WIDESPREAD HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT DEEP
CONVECTION ABOVE 850MB...GOING TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY. SOMEHOW THE NAM CONVECTIVE
SCHEME IS KICKING OFF DOWN TOWARD OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NONE OF THE OTHER LARGE SCALE GUIDANCE
SCHEMES ARE BEGIN TRIGGERED (AS WOULD BE EXPECTED)...AND THE INNER
NAM HIRES CONVECTION ALLOWING MEMBER IS NOT PRODUCING ANY
PRECIPITATION COLUMNS OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES EITHER. IT IS ALSO
VERY TELLING ABOUT THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHEN NOT
A SINGLE ENSEMBLE MEMBER CONVECTIVE SCHEME WITHIN THE SREF IS
TRIGGERED. HAVE BEEN VERY IMPRESSIVE OVERALL WITH THE NAM SINCE ITS
UPGRADE EARLIER THIS YEAR...HOWEVER HAVE NOTED ITS TENDENCY TO BE A
BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH WARM SEASON PULSE TYPE CONVECTION OVER THE
PENINSULA. SO...WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP RAIN MENTION OUT
FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
ALL IN ALL...LOOKING FOR A DRY AND WARM FORECAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WITH THE RIDGE OVER TOP OF THE REGION AND DECENT DIURNAL MIXING UP
TO AROUND 5000 FT BOTH DAYS...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY REACH
WITHIN A DEGREE OR 2 EITHER SIDE OF 90. THESE TEMPERATURES END UP
JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF OCTOBER. HAVE A
GREAT FRIDAY AND ENJOY THE DRY WEATHER TO START OUT YOUR WEEKEND!
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
WE CONTINUE TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS
MODELS HAVE SETTLED ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION FOR OUR COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE NEXT WEEK.
BEFORE THAT...DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE OUT TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY AS A POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY ON SUNDAY
WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES.
BY MONDAY...THE DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO TEXAS. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
RATHER SHARP AND DEEP FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND WILL LIKELY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY.
OUT OF ALL THE MODELS...THE ECMWF HAS THE DEEPEST TROUGH AND BRINGS
A 35 KNOT 850MB JET ACROSS THE NATURE COAST TUESDAY. VERTICAL WIND
PROFILES ARE NEARLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL...BUT IT COULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SOME STRONG WINDS IN THE MORE INTENSE STORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.
TIMING AMONGST THE MODELS IS ACTUALLY QUITE GOOD CONSIDERING WE ARE
TALKING ABOUT AN EVENT THAT IS STILL FIVE DAYS OUT. THE BEST
DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ON TUESDAY FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD. THE MID-LEVELS
ACTUALLY DRY OUT RAPIDLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WE LOSE MOST OF OUR SYNOPTIC FORCING. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS OR STORMS CONTINUING SOUTHEASTWARD. THE RAINS MAY ACTUALLY
END BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY BUT WILL LEAVE SOME LINGERING SHOWER
CHANCES IN TO ACCOUNT FOR MINOR MODEL TIMING ISSUES.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS COOL AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT WE WILL
STILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE THIS
WEEKEND...AND IT WILL FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE DUE TO THE DRIER AIR.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
EARLY THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY VIS RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST TERMINALS...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR GROUND
FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KLAL OR KPGD TOWARD DAWN. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THERE ARE BETTER CHANCES
FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS FURTHER SOUTH INTO
WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
KLAL AND KPGD AGAIN BEGIN THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE WILL GENERALLY
FLOW FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. SURGES OF WIND TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF TARPON SPRINGS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
KEEPING OUR WEATHER GENERALLY WARM AND RAIN FREE. DESPITE THE DRIER
CONDITIONS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
AREAS OF GROUND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...HOWEVER POCKETS OF DENSE FOG
LOOKS TO BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 91 72 90 72 / 10 0 0 10
FMY 91 72 91 71 / 0 0 0 10
GIF 90 70 90 70 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 91 72 91 71 / 10 0 0 10
BKV 91 64 91 63 / 0 0 0 10
SPG 90 76 90 76 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...JILLSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
504 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE REGION. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLIP SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDLANDS LATE SATURDAY. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISOLATED EARLY MORNING CONVECTION CONTINUED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE CSRA. THE RAP MODEL HOLD
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE MIDLANDS THIS MORNING IN AN AREA OF
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH K INDEX VALUES 30C TO 35C.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY ZONAL OVER OUR REGION WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HOLD NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO VIRGINIA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS RIDGE WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. WE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
STILL EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
TO AROUND 90 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDLANDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE CSRA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RIDGE
INTO THE CAROLINAS RESULTING IN A SHALLOW WEDGE/COLD AIR DAMMING
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE FRONT ON SATURDAY...SO
KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MIDLANDS. GIVEN
WEST-SOUTHWEST 850MB FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BE STILL BE WARM ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90
SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WITH SHALLOW WEDGE/COLD AIR DAMMING ON SUNDAY SHOULD SEE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. COULD SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CSRA CLOSERS TO THE FRONT. RANGED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED AS A RIDGE BUILDS
NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST AND A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO CONVERGE...ALTHOUGH
THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER.
SHALLOW WEDGE ERODING MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO SOUTHEAST
AS SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OFF CAROLINA COAST IN RESPONSE TO DEEP TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS PLAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS MIDWEST UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EAST. CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS TUESDAY BASED ON
GFS ENSEMBLES. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. DRY REST OF PERIOD BEHIND FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BEHIND
FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THIS
MORNING.
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE
SAVANNAH RIVER WITH MAIN COLD FRONT WELL TO THE NW ACROSS TN. WV
LOOP SHOWS A WEAK S/W MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT.
THIS COMBINATION OF FEATURE HAS PRODUCED A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NRN CSRA...UPSTATE AND
CENTRAL MIDLANDS. THE ACTIVITY HAS GRADUALLY BEEN DIMINISHING OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT MENTION ANY
PRECIPITATION AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.
VWP SHOWS SE TO S WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE
UP THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...ALONG WITH INTO THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS. THE MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW AS WINDS AROUND 3K FT ARE
FROM THE NORTH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR FG CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT AT THE USUAL FOG PRONE SITES OF AGS/OGB. BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY ALSO BE FOUND AROUND SUNRISE AT CAE/CUB/DNL.
AFTER 13Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AROUND 6 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO
MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
424 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA CAN EXPECT WET CONDITIONS
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT AT TIMES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...EVENTUALLY SPREADING FARTHER INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. IN THE EXTENDED...A RATHER
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY FOR THE DURATION OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH WILL INHIBIT PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL INDIANA...SO WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS
OVER THOSE COUNTIES. TO THE SOUTH...THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BE MORE PREVALENT...SO CARRIED LIKELY AND DEFINITE
POPS OVER THAT AREA. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS THROUGH KENTUCKY.
TEMPS...MODELS ARE HANDLING THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WELL
TODAY...THUS WENT WITH A BLEND. THIS PUTS PROJECTED HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES.
MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL FALL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS OVER MOST NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL INDIANA STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT...AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
STATIONARY FRONT OVER TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL SLOWLY START TO SHIFT
BACK NORTH THOUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO TIMING OF MOISTURE BACK INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA...ALL LEANING TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL GO
WITH CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
INDIANA...AND LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPS...WENT WITH A MOS BLEND FOR DURATION OF SHORT TERM PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL IMPACT THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE WORK WEEK AS AN AMPLIFYING NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WITH
AN ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
MORNING...TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE GROWING CONCERNS AS
LOW LEVEL WINDS MAXIMIZE AT 70KTS MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 99TH
PERCENTILE FOR OCTOBER AT 1.75 INCHES LATE MONDAY NIGHT. 120+KT
UPPER JET WILL PROMOTE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND FURTHER ENHANCE
CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE
LOW AS IT TRACKS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN.
ECMWF BREAKS AWAY FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS FROM LATE TUESDAY
ON...CUTTING OFF THE UPPER ENERGY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE LOW
SPINNING AIMLESSLY OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WHILE A COUPLE OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HINT AT THE UPPER
LOW BEING SLOWER TO DEPART...THEY ARE NOT NEARLY AS DEEP OR HOLD THE
ENERGY AS FAR WEST AS THE ECMWF. THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS LIFT
THE UPPER LOW OUT INTO NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND RIDGING ALOFT ESTABLISHING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS CONSENSUS
IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION WITH DRY SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 100900Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
SHOWERS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WAVE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS EAST INTO THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND ADJUSTED TIMING OF ARRIVAL
ACCORDINGLY. BACKED OFF ON MVFR AND LOWER CEILINGS AT ALL BUT KBMG
BASED ON OBS AND RAP RH PROGS. STILL EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS AFTER
DAYBREAK AT ALL BUT KLAF.
06Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ON/OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE AT THE SITES THROUGH THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW...AND MFVR LIKELY BETWEEN
07-10Z. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS KLAF AS THEY WILL BE ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION. AS STATED WILL SEE MVFR
VISIBILITIES LATER THIS MORNING BUT THESE SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. KBMG COULD SEE
CONDITIONS DROP TO IFR EARLY THIS MORNING BASED ON TIME HEIGHTS
SECTIONS WITH RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS. IFR IS POSSIBLE AT OTHER SITES
BUT PROBABILITY DECREASES HEADING NORTH SO WILL KEEP MVFR GOING AT
KHUF AND KIND LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AT 3-8 KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY OUT OF THE ENE...PICKING UP SLIGHTLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...SMF/RYAN
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
304 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
Upper shortwave trough axis this morning was centered over
northern New Mexico. An embedded shortwave trough and residual
moisture associated with this system has contributed to scattered
showers and thunderstorms earlier this evening. Another round of
light to moderate showers continues to build east over central and
western Kansas at this hour as dynamic lift increases over western
KS. Ongoing heaviest convection is progged to remain near the warm
front across western OK towards the KS and OK border through
today.
Across northeast KS this morning, short term guidance follows radar
trends in spreading light to moderate showers into the region within
the next few hours. Based on the track of the upper trough, highest
probabilities for heavier rain showers through late afternoon
reside near the Interstate 70 corridor and points southward. Rainfall
amounts today for this area range from a tenth to just over an inch.
Locally higher amounts are possible. Latest RAP analysis shows very
weak mid level instability across these locations where isolated
embedded thunder is possible. Further north over north central KS,
less than a tenth of an inch is expected as dry air associated with
a surface high over South Dakota gradually invades south. This dry and
stable air will dissipate showers from north to south through the
afternoon effectively coming to an end this evening.
Overcast cloud cover lingers during the afternoon with clearing
occurring over north central areas by early evening. Highs reflect
where heavier showers and denser stratus are expected with readings
in the lower 50s. Scattered to broken cloud cover over east central
KS this evening will hold lows into the 40s. Light winds and clear
skies for north central areas could drop lows to the mid and upper
30s. Patchy frost may be possible in low lying areas where cooler
temps exist.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
For Saturday, models are in reasonable agreement that the mid level
energy will shear out and move east while dry air builds in from the
north. With this in mind, have removed the small POPs across east
central and far eastern KS. Am not all that excited about precip
chances for Saturday night either as models so the better synoptic
forcing remaining west. However there are signs of some low level
moisture return with the low level jet Saturday night. At this point
models forecast soundings do not indicate much if any vertical
motion with the low level jet focused mainly across MO. And there
really isn`t any elevated instability to speak of. Therefore
continued with a dry forecast, but may need to watch later model
runs for maybe some light precip if the low level jet ends up a
little further west. Clouds are most likely to hang in across east
central KS during the day Saturday while northern KS sees mostly
sunny skies. Think this cloud cover over east central KS may keep
afternoon highs in the mid 50s while sunshine helps warm temps to
around 60 elsewhere. Lows Saturday night should be a little warmer
with increasing cloud cover and a southerly wind.
Precip continues to look likely by Sunday afternoon through Monday
morning. Again there is good agreement among the various model
solutions for an amplifying mid level trough to move across the
plains with cyclogenesis developing over OK. Increasing moisture
ahead of this wave along with increasing PVA and lift from a frontal
boundary should lead to another round of showers and thunderstorms.
While there is not a great deal of instability with this system,
model forecast soundings do show mid level lapse rates steepening
Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Because of this will include a
mention of thunder. Model timing suggests precip will be most likely
Sunday night as the front moves through. With models in good
agreement, have trended POPs across east central KS up to 80
percent. Precip chances should gradually diminish through the day
Monday from west to east as the system progresses east. Highs Sunday
should be a little warmer due to low level warm air advection.
However did not go quite as warm as the warm air advection or MOS
guidance would suggest thinking increasing clouds could inhibit the
warming trend. Also Mondays highs are forecast to be in the lower
and mid 60s. However if the precip and clouds clear out sooner in
the day, there does not appear to be much cold air with this system
and temps could be 5 degrees or so warmer.
Have kept a dry dry forecast for Monday night through Thursday with
a warming trend in temps. There seems to be considerably more
uncertainty in the synoptic patter for next week and run to run
inconsistencies from the ECMWF do not help much. At this point, any
cutoff mid level low is expected to remain east of the forecast
area. If there is no cutoff, then the stronger shortwave depicted in
the GFS looks to stay just to the north of the forecast area on
Thursday. Therefore it appears dry weather is a more likely outcome
and with no intrusions of cold air, temps should warm back into the
70s by Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
TAF sites remain IFR through the overnight hours with prevailing
light rain and low cigs. Cigs begin to lift to MVFR after sunrise
and to VFR by the afternoon. Could see occasional heavier rain
shower but heaviest remains south. Winds NE through the forecast.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...67
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
140 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2014
CONVECTION WITH LIGHTNING HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY AND
MIDDLE TN AND APPEARS HEADED TO THE SW PART OF THE CWA NEAR LAKE
CUMBERLAND OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS. POPS HAVE BEEN
RECONFIGURED BASED ON THIS TREND. ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER ON
TONIGHT AS CONVECTION FURTHER TO THE WEST OVER SOUTH IN/IL AND
WESTERN KY IS EXPECTED TO SURVIVE EAST INTO THE AREA PER RECENT MODEL
GUIDANCE. HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON
RECENT TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2014
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT TRENDS. SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS RECENT HRRR RUNS POINT TOWARD THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS BEING DRY OR MOSTLY DRY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE LOW AND MID CLOUDS AT TIMES. HOURLY POPS
WILL BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY AS WE PLAN TO LOWER POPS OVER THE NEXT 3
TO 5 HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2014
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONT STALLING OUT THROUGH NORTHERN
KENTUCKY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS FRONT/S ARRIVAL HAS ALREADY
SHUNTED AN ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND LEADING EDGE THUNDERSTORMS
EAST OUT OF THE CWA. JUST PATCHY LIGHT SHOWERS WERE LEFT BEHIND
ACROSS CWA. THE RAIN AND CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE TEMPERATURES
SUPPRESSED SO FAR TODAY AND ARE JUST NOW GETTING UP INTO THE MID 60S
MOST PLACES...WHILE MANY SPOTS ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S. 70S ARE NOT FAR AWAY...THOUGH...AND SHOULD SURGE IN DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO WARM UP EAST KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THEY
ALL DEPICT AN OPEN WAVE MOVING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FEEDING PACKETS OF ENERGY EAST OVER KENTUCKY AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IN FAIRLY FAST FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE
OVER THE GULF AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CANADA. THE CLUSTERS OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL ROLL OVERHEAD THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING AS THE WESTERN TROUGH APPROACHES. THE
ENERGY STREAM WILL ALSO BRING WITH IT SUSTAINED UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM YIELDING DECENT LIFT. DID
AGAIN FAVOR THE NAM12/HRRR FOR THE NEAR TERM GRIDS AND THE
ECMWF/NAM12 THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A STALLED BOUNDARY LYING THROUGH
NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH DURING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. FAIRLY HIGH PW AIR ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT AND WILL SUSTAIN
PERIODS OF SHOWERS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
EVEN SO...THESE WILL OCCUR OVER A DRAWN OUT PERIOD OF TIME KEEPING
THINGS QUITE WET BUT ALSO LIMITING THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FROM WHAT IT
COULD HAVE BEEN WITH A MORE ROBUST SET UP. REGARDLESS...WILL BE
ISSUING AN ESFJKL TO HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE
SHOWERS ALONG WITH A SMALL THREAT FOR MOSTLY LOCALIZED AND NUISANCE
FLOODING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...GENERALLY COOLER NORTH AND WARMER
SOUTH WITH A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE LIKELY DUE TO THE HIGH HUMIDITY.
USED THE CONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT AGAIN FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 18-24 HOURS BEFORE GOING WITH THE SUPERBLEND
THEREAFTER. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP MORE SIMILAR TO THE WETTER MET
NUMBERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2014
SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH MUCH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
APPALACHIAN REGION IN A ZONAL PATTERN. HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS PATTERN
TO BECOME AMPLIFIED AS WE GO FURTHER INTO THE WEEKEND...AS A TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND EASTERN KY FINDS ITSELF ON THE
DOWNWIND SIDE OF THE TROUGH. WHILE THE TROUGH WILL HAVE LITTLE
EASTWARD MOTION INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...IT WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN...WITH FALLING HEIGHTS EXPECTED ACROSS KENTUCKY. ALL MODELS
AGREE ON A EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS TROUGH BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/DURING THE DAY TUESDAY TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
AREAS EASTWARD. UNFORTUNATELY...THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGHING AND
THE EXACT TIMING ARE RATHER LACKING.
AS FOR SURFACE FEATURES...THE ZONAL FLOW WILL HAVE CAUSED A SURFACE
FRONT TO BECOME ELONGATED FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN KY AND
STALL. BY 12Z SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE STATIONARY...AND CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY BOTH SATURDAY...SUNDAY...AND CONTINUING
INTO MONDAY. BY MONDAY...HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL DEEPENING TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO PLAY A ROLE. AS HEIGHTS DECREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTH IN THE FORM OF
A WARM FRONT...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AND PULLING IN
WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY/S HIGHS. MEANWHILE...A
STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM MANITOBA TO THE NORTHER GREAT
LAKES...AND CONTINUE ON AN EASTERLY PATH. FROM THIS LOW WILL STRETCH
A STRONG COLD FRONT...REACHING AS FAR SOUTHWARD AS SOUTHERN TX. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...SO WILL THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. MODEL DATA IS
STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS FAR AS TIMING AND EXACT STRENGTH THIS
LATE IN THE FORECAST...BUT EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH
EASTERN KY SOMETIME EARLY ON TUESDAY.
ALONG WITH THIS FRONT WILL COME STRONG FORCING AND PULL OF MOISTURE
OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1.75 INCHES BEFORE 18Z
TUESDAY. MOISTURE CAN BE FOUND FROM THE SURFACE ALL THE WAY TO THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...SO WOULD EXPECT THAT THIS WILL BE
QUITE THE SOAKER OF AN EVENT. NOT TO MENTION...ALL THE RAIN THAT HAS
FALLEN ON PREVIOUS DAY /EACH DAY IS LOOKING AT PWAT VALUES WELL OVER
AN INCH LEADING UP TO THIS POINT/. ALTHOUGH THIS IS A QUICK MOVING
SYSTEM...AND DRYING WILL LIKELY COME QUICKLY AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT MAY BE PRODUCED WITH THIS LINE OF
STORMS MAY BE ENOUGH TO LEAD TO FLOODING POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS FAR OUT...IT IS HARD TO TELL
WHICH AREAS WILL BE HIT THE HARDEST LEADING UP TO THIS POINT...AND
THE UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF THIS LINE HAS LED TO HOLDING OFF ON ANY SORT OF FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO DEFINITELY KEEP AN EYE
OUT FOR...AS EXCESSIVE WATER WILL LIKELY BE A PROBLEM LEADING INTO
THIS EVENT.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...CLEARING WILL FINALLY TAKE HOLD
AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION. COOLER CANADIAN
AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
LOWER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S...WHILE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN TO THE
UPPER 40S TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LOW TO MID 40S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
THIS TAF PERIOD IS GOING TO SEE A MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS.
INITIALLY...THERE IS SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND AT
SJS. IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MOVING INTO WAYNE AND PULASKI COUNTIES. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO
SPREAD TO THE EAST NORTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AFTER
SUNRISE...THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE PRECIPITATION TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD. AS THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD THE CIGS ARE
GOING TO SLOWER LOWER TO NEAR IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. DO EXPECT QUITE
A BIT OF VARIABILITY OF THE CIGS AND VSBY AS SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
AERODROMES. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LAST OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. AFTER 03-04Z TONIGHT...EXPECT THE CIGS TO START
DROPPING TO NEAR 500 FEET ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE HILLS
BEING OBSCURED.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1114 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1114 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
Updated the aviation section. Previous public update discussion
included below...
Late evening update addresses near midnight and post midnight
weather. Focused most of the thunderstorm chances along the
impressed frontal boundary along the southern 1/4 of the WFO PAH
forecast area, following the passage of the MCS into the Pennyrile
and the thunderstorms generated in advance of the MCV moving
across Southeast IL at this time.
Blended the afternoon package PoPs/Weather with the HRRR output,
keeping most of the area out of thunderstorms. Shifted
temperatures/dewpoints/winds/etc...further south to account for
the effective boundary interactions.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 132 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
The frontal boundary is perched along our southwest border and is
beginning to return its warm sector. As it does, waa convection
now seen over central MO will spread southward and eastward across
the PAH FA tonight, with likely-categorical Pops. We will monitor
the QPF output during the next 24 hours, as we still remain quite
dry, with most locales having only had about 1/4 to 1/2 inch
rainfall thus far.
Mid to High pops range continue into the weekend. And while the
front sags in a quasi-stationary fashion overtop the FA, with some
(particularly northern counties) even in low layer nly flow...the
flow off the surface remains overrunning. And the models continue
to offer elevated indices (K, TT, SI) supportive of thunder for
most/if not all the FA thru the remainder of the short term
forecast period. So we continue its mention for the most part,
playing it down to slgt chance in the farthest northern counties
during the time frame(s) it is least expected given the synoptic
setup.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
Medium confidence in the extended but improving.
Models are in much better agreement than they have been in the last
week. Or it could be said they are coming closer to what the ECMWF
has been advertising. Most model solutions agree on at least some
surface based instability Sunday so included at least a mention of
thunder. Then on Monday and Monday night is our best chance of
strong or severe with main frontal passage. Thus made thunder
predominant there. Also its the best chance of heavy rain across the
area. This is supported with negative LI`s approaching -5 and CAPE
values around 1k j/kg. It is not outlooked by SPC yet but the
verbiage for SWODY48 would indicate possible inclusion as confidence
in models improve as the event draws closer. Flooding remains
possible but currently are not forecasting amounts exceeding flash
flood guidance. However...localized flooding of urban...low lying
and flood prone areas should be anticipated at least briefly.
A surge in temps well above normal just ahead of the front Monday
then below normal in its wake finally returning to normal late in
the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1114 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
Main adjustments were for the latest trends. Appears the surface
boundary is from near K2I0 to KPAH to KPOF. It should drift slowly
south overnight. Some lower cigs should work in with time, as winds
go N/NE across the region just behind the front. The probability for
measurable rains/possible thunder will jump up again from the west
by morning, continuing through the day.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
432 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...
MOIST GULF MARINE LAYER OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL MAINTAIN MORE OF
A SUMMER CLOUD COVER PATTERN. DEEP FETCHED ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE CONVERGENT CLOUD STREETS THAT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
FOCUS AND LIFT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS
INDICATED BY THE SHORT RANGE HRRR AND WRF MODELS. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES EACH
AFTERNOON AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE INDICATED
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH INDICATING AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH WITH A COUPLET
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH AS IT
APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE THE BULK OF SEVERE
WEATHER DOES APPEAR TO PASS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE
DEGREE OF UPPER LEVEL COOLING...FRONTAL FORCING AND AMBIENT DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE DOES FAVOR SQUALL LINE DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AS IS MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
THE LATEST STORM PREDICTION CENTER DAY 4 OUTLOOK HAS INTRODUCED A
RISK AREA FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THAT
PERIOD AND THIS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
STRONGEST ON TUESDAY WITH SHARP TROUGH ALOFT...BUT THE ADVECTION
NEUTRALIZES RATHER QUICKLY WHILE SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS ACROSS THE
GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUAL WARMING TREND ONSETS INTO
THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR AND LOW END MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD LIFT
QUICKLY BY 14Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN
COVERAGE TODAY...MAINLY FOCUSED ON CONVERGENCE STREETS DOWNWIND
FROM MOISTURE SOURCES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION
IN ANY TAF LOCATION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW TO MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND RELATIVELY
LOW SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF
DEVELOPING DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE LOWER PLAINS STATES
MONDAY...WINDS OVER THE NORTH GULF SHOULD INCREASE TO MODERATE
LEVELS. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL USHER COOLER
AND DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL LIKELY WARRANT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 88 69 84 68 / 20 10 20 20
BTR 88 69 87 69 / 20 10 20 10
ASD 87 68 86 67 / 10 10 20 10
MSY 88 72 86 72 / 10 10 20 10
GPT 85 69 84 68 / 10 10 20 10
PQL 85 65 85 64 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
24/RR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1203 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 10/06Z TAFS...ISOLD CONVECTION AFFECTING THE MLU TERMINAL
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST AROUND THE START OF
THIS TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INITIALLY THIS MORNING
BUT STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY RETURN BY MID TO LATE MORNING
PRODUCING MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS PRIOR TO OR
VERY NEAR DAYBREAK THROUGH 10/15Z-16Z. PATCHY FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE
AS WELL BUT MORE LIKELY AT LFK/MLU/ELD AS WARM AND MOIST SOUTH
FLOW WILL PREVAIL. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING AT 5 KTS
OR LESS AT MOST SITES BUT INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO AROUND 10 KTS
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RESUME PRIOR
TO 18Z AS CIGS BEGIN TO LIFT AND SCATTER. /19/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/SHIFT NE ACROSS THE ERN
SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA AS OF MID-EVENING...TIED INTO AN AREA OF
ENHANCED SFC THETA-E AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY. WHILE THE 00Z
PROGS HAVE NOT INITIALIZED WELL ON THIS CONVECTION THIS
EVENING...THE HRRR DOES...BUT HAS IT EXITING THE
REGION/DIMINISHING AROUND 06Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AS
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO WANE OVERNIGHT. HAVE EXTENDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH 06Z...DROPPING THEM
AFTERWARDS. OTHERWISE...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE
WAY TO AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS SHIELD LATE...AS THEY DEVELOP/STREAM N
ALONG A 20-30KT SSW LLJ. HAVE WORDED SKY CONDITIONS TO REFLECT
THIS TREND OF BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH THE STRATUS EXPECTED
TO LIFT BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY FRIDAY. GIVEN THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S OVER EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...AND HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN TEMPS OVER THESE AREAS.
A WEAK SFC FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY TO OUR N OVER NRN OK/SRN MO
THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE WRN
EXTENT OF THE FRONT OVER WRN OK MAY BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE LATE
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN WELL N OF THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY...MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING OVER EXTREME
NE TX/SE OK/SW AR. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
MORNING FOR THE NRN ZONES...BUT DID MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON FOR SCT CONVECTION THAT SHOULD DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY.
ELSEWHERE...ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.
ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 70 90 69 83 66 / 10 20 40 70 40
MLU 71 90 66 85 66 / 20 20 30 60 40
DEQ 67 85 64 76 60 / 10 40 80 90 40
TXK 68 86 66 79 62 / 10 30 70 80 40
ELD 66 88 65 81 64 / 20 30 40 70 40
TYR 71 90 68 81 63 / 10 20 60 70 40
GGG 69 90 67 83 64 / 10 20 40 70 40
LFK 71 89 70 85 67 / 10 20 30 70 40
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
423 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
HIGHER RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED TODAY VS. YESTERDAY AS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND SOME ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS COMBINED
WITH CONTINUED SURFACE MIXING WINDS HAVE HAMPERED ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR. HRRR HAS BACKED OFF ON ANY DENSE VISIBILITIES
IN SE MS WHERE STRATUS SEEMS TO BE THE DOMINANT CONDENSATION
ELEMENT VS. FOG. WILL MONITOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT ANY DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP AND WILL PULL CURRENT
HWO/GRAPHIC. THAT BEING STATED, SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH 9AM BUT JUST DON`T THINK IT WILL BECOME DENSE AND
BE STRATUS IN NATURE. SECONDLY, NAM12 INDICATES ISENTROPIC LIFT
EARLY THIS MORNING THAT COULD AID IN SHOWER GENERATION AND HAVE
ADDED LIGHT SHOWER WORDING THROUGH EARLY TO MID MORNING.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF REGION AS PWATS FURTHER
INCREASE TOWARDS 1.6-1.7" IN PRESENCE OF ~1000 J/KG MLCAPE DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
TODAY AREA WIDE. BY EARLY EVENING, A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL
MOVE ALONG A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IN AR AND COULD AID IN AN
ORGANIZED LINEAR CONVECTIVE BAND PER HI-RES AND SPC SSEO OUTPUT.
WHILE THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER OUR AREA LOOK TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY
EVENING, THIS LINEAR BAND SHOULD REMAIN MORE INTACT AND APPROACH THE
DELTA LATE TONIGHT. THIS LINE SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, ANOTHER AND STRONGER IMPULSE OVER
TX MAY HELP ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION ACROSS LA/AR THAT
COULD SPREAD INTO THE DELTA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HOW THIS WILL
EVOLVE INTO SATURDAY AFTN FOR THE 82 CORRIDOR IS STILL IN QUESTION.
OVERALL MODEL ENVELOP (EC/GEM/UKMET/NAM) KEEPS BEST RAIN/TSTORM
CHANCES/QPF IN DELTA AREA AND NORTH SAT AFTN AS MODELS PROG A WEAK
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN AR THAT WOULD ACT TO KEEP THE FRONT
FARTHER NORTH. ONLY OUTLIER IS GFS WITH A WEAKER INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH THAT ALLOWS FOR FRONT TO OOZE SOUTH AND THUS ELEVATES RAIN
TOTALS FOR NORTH HALF OF AREA. HAVE WEIGHTED FORECAST TOWARD
ENVELOPE AVERAGE WHICH IS MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH WPC QPF GUIDANCE.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER SATURDAY AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP
READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH. /ALLEN/
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL COMBINE
WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARM DAY WITH WAA SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON. GREATEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL
TOP OUT ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 80S AT MOST SITES. MAIN FOCUS OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A POTENT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST CONUS SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT HELPING TO DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
MONDAY EVENING. NEAR 80-100M HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING
AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. IN RESPONSE...WIND FIELDS WILL
STRENGTHEN MONDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM INCLUDING 50-60KT
50H AND 40-50KT 85H FLOW LEADING TO 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 45KTS
WITH STRONG 0-1KM AND 0-3KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES. SURFACE DEW
POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH PWS OF 1.7
POOLING TO NEAR TWO INCHES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 80S WILL LEND TO MLCAPES 1000-1500J/KG. LOCAL COOL SEASON
SEVERE WEATHER CHECKLIST POINTS TO AN INCREASED POTENTIAL OF NUMEROUS
SEVERE STORMS WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT. LATEST CIPS RUN CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME IMPRESSIVE SEVERE WEATHER ANALOGUES FOR PAST SYSTEMS WITH
SIMILAR PARAMETERS. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...TORNADOES AND SOME HAIL...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
A CONCERN. MODEL RUN ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA LOOK REASONABLE. THE GFS IS STILL A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND FARTHER NORTH IN CLOSING OFF A LOW OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT BUT MODEL CONSENSUS SHIFTS THE
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL EAST OF OUR CWA BY TUESDAY MORNING. DEPENDING
ON THE ACTUAL POSITION OF THE CLOSED LOW...LIGHT RAIN MAY HOLD IN THE
NORTH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT TUESDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN THE 70S. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AREAWIDE. SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST OVER OUR CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND NORTHWEST WIND ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT CLOSE TO
NORMAL IN THE LOWER 50S AT MOST SITES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
SHIFTING EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. RIDGING ALOFT WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER
OUR CWA THURSDAY AND SHIFT EAST OF OUR REGION FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. /22/
&&
.AVIATION...IFR STRATUS CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS GOOD PORTION OF
CENTRAL MS WITH PERIODIC BREAKS ALLOWING FOR BRIEF MVFR AND VFR
CONDITIONS. MVFR.IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID MORNING UNTIL BETTER MIXING OCCURS WITH VFR DOMINATING THROUGH
EVENING. SCT SHRA WITH SOME TSRA MIXED IN EXPECTED THIS 18Z-00Z THAT
COULD CAUSE HIGHLY LOCALIZED MVFR. WINDS WILL S/SW AT 10 KT OR LESS
THROUGH AFTN AND EVENING. /ALLEN/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 88 69 85 67 / 29 21 35 26
MERIDIAN 88 67 86 65 / 27 19 26 23
VICKSBURG 89 68 84 67 / 31 34 49 33
HATTIESBURG 89 68 89 65 / 21 14 20 16
NATCHEZ 86 69 85 68 / 27 14 37 22
GREENVILLE 89 67 78 67 / 38 69 75 55
GREENWOOD 88 66 79 66 / 38 47 58 55
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
ALLEN/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1246 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 753 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
With elevated instability quickly decreasing across the forecast
area, the threat for any thunderstorms capable of heavy rain is
shifting south into southeast KS and the MO Ozarks. However, a band
of deep frontogenesis across northern KS is causing a band of
moderate rain to develop over that area. RAP and NAM indicate this
frontogenetical band will shift southeast toward the KC area through
midnight, and could bring some enhanced rainfall rates around a half
inch per hour into the area. Wouldn`t be surprising to see a few
areas still see between an half inch and inch of additional rainfall
overnight with locally higher amounts. This probably won`t be enough
to cause significant flooding concerns, but given the rain that fell
earlier, will go ahead and hold on to the flood watch for the time
being.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
Round two of widespread rain is starting to get under way across
southern and central KS this afternoon ahead of an upper-level jet
streak coming out of the Southern Rockies. This source of deep
synoptic lift will bring an increase in precipitation this evening as
it interacts with a sloped frontal boundary. This feature stretches
from a surface front just south of the forecast area to an 850
boundary near the US 36 corridor. Most likely area to see heavy
rainfall this evening will be near and just north of the surface
front, or generally south of the US 50 corridor where the better
synoptic scale ascent and elevated instability will reside. However,
areas further north could also see several tenths of an inch of rain,
possibly 1"+ given the presence of the elevated boundary and
precipitable water values as high as 1.5". These areas also received
quite a bit of rainfall last night, anywhere from 2" to 5",
particularly from Atchison Co KS into the northern KC metro, and
another area along the Missouri River east of US 65. This has left
flood guidance very low across these areas, and even less than an
inch of rain could lead to a few flood problems there. Will therefore
keep the flood watch going for much of the area, but will cancel the
far northern counties where projected rainfall amounts combined with
last night`s rain don`t suggest any serious flooding concerns.
On Friday the sloped boundary in place will make steady southward
progress as a cold front, shifting the threat for heavy rain to the
south of the forecast area. Still expect off and on showers through
the afternoon for areas near and south of a KC to Moberly line until
drier air is able to filter in from the north later in the day. None
of this activity is likely to cause any additional flooding but could
prevent areas of ongoing flooding from otherwise receding. These off
and on showers will make it difficult to warm up and many areas will
struggle to rise out of the lower 50s.
Saturday and Saturday night still appear dry for most areas though
there could be some straggling showers over central Missouri.
Cool Canadian airmass will keep temperatures in the 50s across the
area.
Sunday and Monday will see significant amplification of an upper
level trough to the west, a process that will send a deepening
surface low tracking somewhere near the I-44 corridor Monday and
Monday night. This pattern would lead to a major winter storm for our
area if it were 2 or 3 months later, but will instead bring a round of
widespread rain to much of the region Sunday night and Monday. Some
areas could see up to an inch or so of rain particularly east of the
I-35 corridor. Deep ridging behind this system will provide a drying
trend for the remainder of the work week with temperatures gradually
rising into the lower 70s by Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
Latest model guidance now support trends of improvement from north to
south through the early morning hrs. As a result...feel best chance
for long duration IFR will reside at IXD...with mainly MVFR
conditions expected at both MCI and MKC. Further north...VFR to
dominate at STJ through the early morning hrs. That said...light to
moderate shwr activity will persist through the morning with MVFR
VSBYS common at all sites with the exception of STJ. After
sunrise...expect improving conditions through the morning with
redeveloping shwrs possible by early afternoon as next wave of precip
moves through the area. Best chance for restrictions with this next
batch of rainfall will reside from MKC south through IXD. Breezy
northeast winds of 10-15 kts expected through the period.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-103>105.
MO...FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR MOZ028>032-037>040-043>046-
053-054.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Hawblitzel
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...32
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
338 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL ZONE OSCILLATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ROUNDS OF WET
WEATHER. STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MID
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOCUS DURING THE NEAR TERM WILL BE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT AND
TIMING DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. USED HRRR FOR THE
INTO MID MORNING FOR POPS WHICH WILL FEATURE ONE BAND OF -SHRA
ACROSS SE OH/C AND N WV. MEANWHILE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THRU KY
AND INTO WV THIS MORNING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS ALONG AND N OF
BOUNDARY WITH MORE CONVECTIVE PRECIP ACROSS S WV/SW VA. THIS
FEATURE QUICKLY MOVES E OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY WITH PERHAPS A LULL
IN ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY MAY SLIP A BIT S INTO S
ZONES FOR A TIME.
EXPECT PRECIP TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW AND
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES AND
ENERGIZES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT WITH AID FROM AMPLIFYING
UPPER TROF. DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG FRONT AND WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS REGARDING WATER CONCERNS TOMORROW NIGHT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS S ZONES WHERE PRECIP MAY BE MORE CONVECTIVE IN
NATURE. WILL HOLD CONVECTION ACROSS SE WV AND SW VA PER
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND THETA E. FELT NAM WAS A BIT SLOW WITH
PROGRESSION OF SURFACE LOW AND SIDED MORE WITH FASTER GFS. AS SUCH
BEGIN TO DECREASE PRECIP FROM NW TO SE TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING FOR SE OH.
FOR TEMPS...FELT BEST TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP TODAY. EXCEPTION BEING S OF FRONT IN SE WV
AND SW VA WITH TEMPS MAY APPROACH 70F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE WAVE
ALONG THE FRONT ON SATURDAY. NAM IS THE SLOWEST AND APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER AS THE SREF IS IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS.
THEREFORE...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE GFS/SREF SOLUTION. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WAFFLES BACK NORTHWARD SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. GOOD
FORCING...SO WILL INCREASE POPS A BIT WITH THIS FEATURE. BY LATE
MONDAY...FORECAST AREA MOVES INTO THE WARM SECTOR WHICH APPEARS TO BE
DRY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE. WILL REMOVE POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RELATIVELY QUITE WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS ON HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.
H850 WIND FLOW OF 55 TO 60 KNOTS BY BOTH MODELS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING.
WATER PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...AS A HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
BLENDED IN WPC AND BIAS CORRECTED GFS BASED MOS GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST INTO EARLY MORNING HRS. TOUGH TO
FIGURE OUT EXTENT OF FOG GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF MID DECK ALONG WITH
SCT SHRA ALONG QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FELT BEST
CHANCES FOR IFR VSBY WAS KCRW/KCKB WITH MVFR PERHAPS MOST OTHER
PLACES. HAVE SOME VCSH IN TERMINALS CLOSES TO AXIS OF -SHRA.
WILL BE TRACKING A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS S WV THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH CONVECTIVE
PRECIP REMAINING S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OVER SE WV AND SW VA.
CIGS SHOULD ALSO LOWER ALONG FRONTAL ZONE AND N...TO AFFECT MOST
TERMINALS SAVE FOR KBKW. GRADUALLY LOWER CIGS THRU MVFR AND INTO
IFR BY THIS EVENING WITH PREDOMINATELY MVFR VSBY IN SHRA. HOWEVER
THIS COULD EASILY BE IFR SHOULD CIGS LOWER MORE THAN EXPECTED.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THRU TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW-MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DEPENDING ON ARRIVAL OF MAIN WAVES OF THE RAIN
FRIDAY...TIMING THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL VARY AND JUST HOW LOW THEY
WILL GO.
NOT REALLY SURE WHAT TO DO WITH THE ISOLATED IFR. IT MAY MIX OUT
AS PRECIP NEARS OR JUST CONGEAL. I CHOSE THE LATTER.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 10/10/14
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M H H H M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M H M M H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR IN CEILINGS AND SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY
CEILINGS IN WAKE OF THE WAVE FOR SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TUESDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
225 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL ZONE OSCILLATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ROUNDS OF WET
WEATHER. A COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. STRONGER
COLD FRONT TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOCUS DURING THE NEAR TERM WILL BE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT AND
TIMING DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. USED HRRR FOR THE
INTO MID MORNING FOR POPS WHICH WILL FEATURE ONE BAND OF -SHRA
ACROSS SE OH/C AND N WV. MEANWHILE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THRU KY
AND INTO WV THIS MORNING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS ALONG AND N OF
BOUNDARY WITH MORE CONVECTIVE PRECIP ACROSS S WV/SW VA. THIS
FEATURE QUICKLY MOVES E OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY WITH PERHAPS A LULL
IN ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY MAY SLIP A BIT S INTO S
ZONES FOR A TIME.
EXPECT PRECIP TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW AND
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES AND
ENERGIZES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT WITH AID FROM AMPLIFYING
UPPER TROF. DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG FRONT AND WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS REGARDING WATER CONCERNS TOMORROW NIGHT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS S ZONES WHERE PRECIP MAY BE MORE CONVECTIVE IN
NATURE. WILL HOLD CONVECTION ACROSS SE WV AND SW VA PER
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND THETA E. FELT NAM WAS A BIT SLOW WITH
PROGRESSION OF SURFACE LOW AND SIDED MORE WITH FASTER GFS. AS SUCH
BEGIN TO DECREASE PRECIP FROM NW TO SE TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING FOR SE OH.
FOR TEMPS...FELT BEST TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP TODAY. EXCEPTION BEING S OF FRONT IN SE WV
AND SW VA WITH TEMPS MAY APPROACH 70F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY
PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. STILL LOOKING FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES...AND GENERALLY HAVE AROUND AN
ADDITIONAL 0.5 TO 0.65 INCHES OF RAIN SATURDAY...OUTSIDE OF
SOUTHEAST OHIO. DESPITE THE GOOD DOSE OF RAIN EXPECTED...CURRENT
THINKING WITH WPC AND LOCAL FORECASTERS IS THAT WIDESPREAD FLOODING
ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE A MENTION OUT OF THE
HWO FOR NOW.
AS THE LOW SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
CWA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS...WHICH THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS THAT IT WILL
ACTUALLY SHIFT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR ALL OF CWA TO AT LEAST DRY OUT
TEMPORARILY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL DETERMINE
WHETHER OR NOT POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE SOUTH. FOR
NOW...MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH FOR
SATURDAY EVE/NIGHT.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ON SUNDAY...AS YET ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES THE AREA...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE...AND A RETURN OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RELATIVELY QUITE WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS ON HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.
H850 WIND FLOW OF 55 TO 60 KNOTS BY BOTH MODELS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING.
WATER PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...AS A HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
BLENDED IN WPC AND BIAS CORRECTED GFS BASED MOS GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST INTO EARLY MORNING HRS. TOUGH TO
FIGURE OUT EXTENT OF FOG GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF MID DECK ALONG WITH
SCT SHRA ALONG QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FELT BEST
CHANCES FOR IFR VSBY WAS KCRW/KCKB WITH MVFR PERHAPS MOST OTHER
PLACES. HAVE SOME VCSH IN TERMINALS CLOSES TO AXIS OF -SHRA.
WILL BE TRACKING A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS S WV THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH CONVECTIVE
PRECIP REMAINING S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OVER SE WV AND SW VA.
CIGS SHOULD ALSO LOWER ALONG FRONTAL ZONE AND N...TO AFFECT MOST
TERMINALS SAVE FOR KBKW. GRADUALLY LOWER CIGS THRU MVFR AND INTO
IFR BY THIS EVENING WITH PREDOMINATELY MVFR VSBY IN SHRA. HOWEVER
THIS COULD EASILY BE IFR SHOULD CIGS LOWER MORE THAN EXPECTED.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THRU TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW-MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DEPENDING ON ARRIVAL OF MAIN WAVES OF THE RAIN
FRIDAY...TIMING THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL VARY AND JUST HOW LOW THEY
WILL GO.
NOT REALLY SURE WHAT TO DO WITH THE ISOLATED IFR. IT MAY MIX OUT
AS PRECIP NEARS OR JUST CONGEAL. I CHOSE THE LATTER.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 10/10/14
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M H H H M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M H M M H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR IN CEILINGS AND SHOWERS AFTER 18Z FRIDAY AND POSSIBLE THUNDER IN
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...BECOMING MOSTLY
CEILINGS IN WAKE OF THE WAVE FOR SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN AREA WIDE...IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION SUNDAY AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1154 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
.UPDATE...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAFS REMAIN DIFFICULT THIS PERIOD DUE TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
-SHRA/-TSRA EXPECTED. CURRENT MCS CROSSING TN RIVER CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN BUT WILL BRING -SHRA/VCTS TO CKV/BNA OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY
CSV AS WELL. MORE ROUNDS OF -SHRA/-TSRA EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE MID STATE. WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC ON FLIGHT CATEGORIES
TONIGHT INTO FRI AFT AS NO IFR CONDITIONS APPARENT BEHIND CURRENT
MCS...BUT IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY POST-COLD FRONT LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRI
AFTERNOON BEFORE SWITCHING TO NORTHWEST AND NORTH BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014/
UPDATE...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
DIFFICULT TAFS THIS PERIOD DUE TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF -SHRA/-TSRA
EXPECTED AND RELIED HEAVILY ON HRRR MODEL FOR TIMING. MCS
CURRENTLY OVER MO TO MOVE INTO MID STATE LATE THIS EVENING BUT
WEAKEN...WITH CURRENT SPEED HAVING -TSRA REACH CKV AROUND
0330Z...BNA AROUND 05Z...AND CSV BY 09Z. BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE ADDITIONAL -TSRA ARRIVES FRIDAY MORNING
WITH COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR BY FRI
MORNING AT ALL AIRPORTS...WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD BUT VARIABLE AND GUSTY NEAR -TSRA.
SHAMBURGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS THE TIMING FOR PRECIP
TONIGHT AND HOW FAR SOUTH STORMS WILL SINK. LEANING TOWARD THE
SOLUTION BEING PRESENTED BY NSSL`S 4KM WRF AS IT APPEARS TO BE
INITIALIZING BETTER THAN THE HRRR TODAY...WHICH MEANS SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS COULD SNEAK IN BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...WITH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA LIKELY SEEING STORMS
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 7AM. MONDAY MORNING LOOKS SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING WITH MODELS INDICATING THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTH ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND A SURFACE LOW
TRAVELLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF TN. STRONG STORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH THE THREAT BEING THE HIGHEST NORTH OF
I-40 BEFORE NOON AND SOUTH OF I-40 AFTER NOON. PWAT VALUES REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AROUND 1.8 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE AREA
DURING THE SHORT TERM...THIS COUPLED WITH THE WEST TO EAST
MOVEMENT OF STORMS POSSIBLY OVER THE SAME AREA OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE
THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING. SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE GFS INDICATES A SUBTLE NEGATIVE TILT TO THE TROUGH
AFTER IT CROSSES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WILL BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER TO MONDAY. THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE MONDAY EVENING. 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 65 KNOTS AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES. SOUNDINGS INDICATE DECENT LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AND BULK SHEAR...BUT LIMITED CAPE VALUES WITH THIS SYSTEM.
PWATS WILL SURGE AGAIN AND BRING A CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY
NIGHT...WPC QPF TOTALS ARE AROUND 6 INCHES FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS
AS THEY UNFOLD FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL. CONDITIONS DRY OUT AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
347 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
ENOUGH THIN SPOTS IN CIRRUS OVER SRN HALF OF CWA OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S AWAY FROM LAKE MI. FROST ADVY WL REMAIN
IN EFFECT UNTIL 13Z THIS MRNG.
LOW LEVEL WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA WHILE
WINDS REMAIN MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST IN THE NORTH AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO SRN WI. MODIS IMAGERY FROM THU HAD LAKE SFC
TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...HOWEVER A SMALL AREA OF
UPWELLING HAD CAUSED COOLER TEMPS IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS NORTH OF
MILWAUKEE. BURST OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WL RESULT IN THE
DELTA-T INCREASING TO 15C TODAY. FORTUNATELY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SHORE REMAIN WEAK SO NO -SHRA ARE
EXPECTED. HOWEVER POSSIBLE THAT SOME LAKE EFFECT LOWER CLOUDS MAY
AFFECT FAR SOUTHEAST THIS MRNG...DISSIPATING THIS AFTN. WL KEEP P/S
WORDING IN THE FAR SOUTH THIS MRNG...GIVING WAY TO MORE AFTN
SUNSHINE AS TEMPS RECOVER INTO THE 50S.
MARINE LAYER WL AGAIN KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER BY THE LAKE TNGT
DESPITE LAND BREEZE DEVELOPING. FARTHER INLAND...SIMILAR LOW LEVEL
TEMPS AND BOUNDARY LAYER WIND CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
NIGHT OF TEMPS FALLING MOSTLY TO THE LOW TO MID 30S. NO CIRRUS IS
EXPECTED SO COLDER TEMPS ARE LIKELY IN THE SOUTH AS WELL. NEARBY
WARMER LAKE AND URBAN HEAT ISLAND WL KEEP KFLD AND KMSN SLIGHTLY
WARMER AS WELL. HENCE ANOTHER FROST ADVY WL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
TNGT.
SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WI SATURDAY MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VERY DRY AIR
OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. ALTHOUGH EXPECT A
FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT... SO A LAKE BREEZE
IS FORECAST ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.
.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A STRONG UPPER JET WILL DIVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE A 500MB TROUGH
TO AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A
PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE MIDWEST ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY... REACHING SOUTHERN WI IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH THIS INITIAL SURGE OF QPF
INTO SOUTHERN WI... SO KEPT THE SMALL CHANCE POPS.
THE NAM AND GFS MAINTAIN LIGHT QPF OVER SOUTHERN WI SUNDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF CAME IN DRY WITH THE LULL BETWEEN
SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET ENERGY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING SUNDAY... SO EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO SAT AND SUN NIGHT
LOWS A LITTLE MORE MILD.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS A DELAYED ONSET OF
THE HEAVIER RAIN IN SOUTHERN WI... AND ALSO A LONGER PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
MONDAY... RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM SECTOR IN SOUTHEAST WI
DUE TO UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE UPPER JET AND SHORTWAVES OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN SOUTHERN WI
NOW LOOKS LIKE MONDAY EVENING AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO THE
MIDWEST AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET IS OVERHEAD.
IT WOULD BE RIGHT ALONG THE SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH AND 850MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE.
DUE TO THE SLOWER SYSTEM... WINDS SHOULD STAY SOUTH LONGER IN
SOUTHEAST WI AND ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE 00Z ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION CAME IN WITH A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. IT CLOSES OFF THE 500MB LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST TUE NIGHT AND HAS IT MEANDER EAST THROUGH
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. THE GFS ALSO CLOSES OFF THE UPPER LOW...BUT NOT AS QUICKLY.
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LEAN TOWARD THIS CUTOFF LOW SOLUTION AS WELL.
THEREFORE... WE LEANED TOWARD THE LATEST ECMWF TO GENERATE POPS IN
SOUTHERN WI AND THE REGION. AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES... WE OPTED TO ADD SMALL CHANCE POPS TO THE FORECAST FOR TUE
NIGHT THROUGH WED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UPPER LOW HANGING AROUND THE
AREA LONGER. WE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS WELL. IT IS POSSIBLE THE
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT RAIN WOULD LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST WI
THROUGH THU.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITONS TO CONTINUE FOR BULK OF THIS TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT MVFR CLOUDS TO AFFECT
KMKE/KENW TAFS THIS MRNG AS INDICATED BY BOTH RAP SOUNDINGS AND
HRRR. NOT SEEING MUCH LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER LAKE MI BUT CIRRUS
OBSCURING LOWER LEVELS. WL KEEP AN EYE ON 11-3.9 MICRON PRODUCT BUT
FOR NOW WL CONTINUE VFR CONDITIONS THIS MRNG.
&&
.MARINE...BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WINDS TURNING
MORE TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND WEAK SURGE OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION. WINDS BRIEFLY GUSTED TO 25KTS AT SGNW3 AROUND 06Z BUT
HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED TO BLO 20KTS. CARGO VESSEL JOSEPH BLOCK
LOCATED ABOUT 15NM EAST OF MKE ONLY REPORTING 11KT WINDS. EXPC
BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH ALONG NEARSHORE
WATERS EARLY THIS MRNG...HOWEVER WINDS WL SETTLE BACK DOWN TO 5 TO
15 KTS FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVY PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ046-047-051-
052-056>060-062>072.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
956 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2014
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS THIS MORNING TO REFLECT A FASTER TREND IN
DECREASING PCPN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...ALTHOUGH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. ALSO KEPT SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH 18Z.
LATEST RUC AND HRRR RUNS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY QPF ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING POPS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY AND ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2014
RADAR DATA HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY TO RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER THE STATE PREPARES TO MOVE OUT OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEPER CLOUDS ARE ALL
OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS AT THIS TIME WITH ONLY
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING BACK OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. RADAR DERIVED WIND PROFILE SHOWS THAT WINDS IN THE LOWEST
3000 FEET ARE OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...INDICATING DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR MOVING INTO THE STATE OUT OF WYOMING. THIS IS GOING TO
KEEP CEILINGS HIGHER AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO THIS MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE DOING A POOR JOB OF
IDENTIFYING THIS INTRUSION OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR...AND SURFACE
PRESSURE PATTERNS WOULD NOT INDICATE ANY NORTHERLY
FLOW...YET...THERE IT IS IN THE RADAR DATA.
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY STILL PERSISTS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...AND
WITH MOIST EASTERLY WINDS STILL INDICATED AT MID- LEVELS...WILL
NEED TO HOLD ONTO SHOWERS LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP BY
MIDDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE STATE ENTIRELY.
MOUNTAIN AREAS ONLY SEEM TO BE GETTING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS UP AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS EVIDENT ON CDOT WEB
CAMERAS. WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED FROM HERE
ON OUT...WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN ZONE 34.
DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE THE RULE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS
BUILDING OVER THE STATE AND DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2014
WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON SAT. SOME MID LVL MOISTURE
WILL AFFECT THE MTNS BY AFTN WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME WDLY SCT
SHOWERS SO WILL INCLUDE LOW POPS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY AS AS
A SFC LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO DVLP AND ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REACH
THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH NEAR 70 OVER THE FAR
ERN PLAINS.
ON SUN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN NW FLOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NERN CO. COMBINATION OF MID LVL QG
ASCENT...FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH BEING IN THE LEFT FNT QUAD
OF UPPER LEVEL JET SHOULD LEAD TO A GOOD CHC OF PCPN OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ESPECIALLY FM MIDDAY THRU THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MAY SEE
ADVISORY TYPE SNOW AMOUNTS ABV 10000 FEET. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS NERN CO BY MIDDAY WITH NNE LOW LVL
FLOW IN THE AFTN HOURS. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF PCPN
FM DENVER SOUTH TO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND IN THE SRN FOOTHILLS BY
AFTN WHICH MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE
FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE WY-NE BORDER PCPN CHANCES WILL BE LOWER.
SOUNDINGS SHOW SNOW LEVEL MAY DROP DOWN TO 6500 FEET BY LATE SUN
AFTN SO COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND IN
THE FOOTHILLS. AS FOR HIGHS READINGS OVER MUCH OF NERN CO WILL PEAK
IN THE LOWER 60S BY MIDDAY AND THEN FALL THROUGH THE AFTN.
BY MON THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SE OF THE AREA WITH DRIER
AIR IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT. CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
AT MTN TOP IN THE MORNING SO WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHSN...
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. HIGHS ON MON WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL OVER
NERN CO WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FOR TUE AND WED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE SWLY. THUS EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS BOTH
DAYS WITH WARMER TEMPS ACROSS NERN CO AS READINGS RISE BACK ABV
SEASONAL NORMALS BY WED. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SOME ON
THU HOWEVER IT STILL LOOKS DRY. A WEAK CDFNT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO
NERN CO DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY DROP HIGHS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 948 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2014
VFR VSBYS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS...SHOULD SEE CIGS INCREASING TO 050-060 BY
20Z. WITH VFR CIGS/VSBYS AFTER 00Z. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 11-15Z TIME FRAME NORTH AND EAST OF KDEN
...SO IT MAY NEED TO ADDRESSED WITH VCFG WORDING IN THE 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...COOPER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
740 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC ARE MOVING ONSHORE THE
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY COAST THIS MORNING. HRRR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS
IMPACTING THE SE FLORIDA COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO HAVE PLACED
A 20 POP IN FOR THE EAST COAST METRO TODAY...AND ADDED JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LATE DAY SHOWER FOR THE GULF COAST. NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014/
AVIATION...
A MOSTLY DRY AND VFR FORECAST WILL PREVAIL. A CONVERGENT BAND OF
SHRA IS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND COULD BRIEFLY AFFECT THE
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY TERMINALS THROUGH 14Z BUT MOSTLY DISSIPATING AS
THEY MOVE ONSHORE SO ONLY PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. A
MODERATE ENE WIND FLOW IS ANTICIPATED WITH SPEEDS OF 12-14KT ALONG
THE EAST COAST AND 10-12KT AT KAPF.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014/
.DRIER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK...
SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN DRIER AIR TO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR THE ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TO
DISSIPATE TOWARDS SUNRISE TODAY. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER FOR TODAY
INTO TONIGHT WILL BE DRY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR THE WIND FLOW TO SLOWLY SWING TO A MORE
EASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
RETURN TO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER
WILL REMAIN DRY ON SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS OVER THE WEST COAST METRO
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW FOR THE
STEERING FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WORKING INTO THE AREA.
THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL BE ON AN INCREASE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AND SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
FLORIDA KEYS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
BEFORE SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS END OF NEXT
WEEK. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RANGE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING IN
COVERAGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE NORTHEAST TODAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
SLOWLY SWINGING TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS TODAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 5 FEET OR LESS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND 3 FEET OR LESS IN THE GULF WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 77 88 76 / 20 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 80 88 79 / 20 10 10 10
MIAMI 89 79 89 78 / 20 10 10 10
NAPLES 91 73 91 73 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
809 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE REGION. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLIP SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDLANDS LATE SATURDAY. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISOLATED EARLY MORNING CONVECTION CONTINUED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE CSRA. THE RAP MODEL HOLD
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE MIDLANDS THIS MORNING IN AN AREA OF
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH K INDEX VALUES 30C TO 35C.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY ZONAL OVER OUR REGION WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HOLD NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO VIRGINIA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS RIDGE WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. WE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
STILL EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
TO AROUND 90 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDLANDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE CSRA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RIDGE
INTO THE CAROLINAS RESULTING IN A SHALLOW WEDGE/COLD AIR DAMMING
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE FRONT ON SATURDAY...SO
KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MIDLANDS. GIVEN
WEST-SOUTHWEST 850MB FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BE STILL BE WARM ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90
SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WITH SHALLOW WEDGE/COLD AIR DAMMING ON SUNDAY SHOULD SEE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. COULD SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CSRA CLOSERS TO THE FRONT. RANGED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED AS A RIDGE BUILDS
NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST AND A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO CONVERGE...ALTHOUGH
THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER.
SHALLOW WEDGE ERODING MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO SOUTHEAST
AS SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OFF CAROLINA COAST IN RESPONSE TO DEEP TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS PLAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS MIDWEST UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EAST. CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS TUESDAY BASED ON
GFS ENSEMBLES. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. DRY REST OF PERIOD BEHIND FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BEHIND
FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE
SAVANNAH RIVER WITH MAIN COLD FRONT WELL TO THE NW ACROSS TN. WV
LOOP SHOWS A WEAK S/W MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT.
THIS COMBINATION OF FEATURE HAS PRODUCED A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NRN CSRA...UPSTATE AND
CENTRAL MIDLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST OF CAE/CUB THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. STRATUS MOVING INTO THE CSRA
NEAR DNL/AGS...SO PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR THIS MORNING.
AFTER 15Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AROUND 6 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO
MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
947 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
Showers starting to increase again along and south of I-70 as the
next wing of precipitation spreads northeast from Missouri. Latest
HRRR continues to delineate a rather sharp northern edge of the
precipitation shield, as areas along and north of I-72 have quite a
bit of dry air present below 750 mb per our morning sounding and
forecast soundings from the RAP model. In fact, the northern parts
of the CWA are seeing some sunshine filtering through what is
mainly a cirrus layer in that area. While the far north is still
in the 40s, temperatures should rise quicker there with more
sunshine. Coolest conditions expected along the I-70 corridor with
mainly mid 50s. Only some minor adjustments needed to the existing
zones/grids. Only significant item of note was to remove the
thunder in the far southeast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
Forecast challenge through today remains the northern extent of the
precip shield, currently extending from near Springfield east towards
Champaign. For the most part, the steadier rains have been occurring
further south closer to a stalled frontal boundary over northern
Arkansas east through central Kentucky. This boundary may edge a bit
further north as shortwave energy, currently over the Southern
Plains, shifts thru the Ohio River Valley later today. Some of the
short term models suggest a slight northward push to the rain shield
as this upper wave shifts to our south later this morning into this
afternoon. However, not seeing enough evidence off models to adjust
much further north than what we have been advertising for the past
day or so, mainly along and south of Jacksonville to Springfield to
Champaign line. PoPs will progressively increase as you head south
towards the I-70 corridor through this afternoon, while north towards
I74, little if any rain is expected thru tonight.
Forecast soundings continue to show an increase in drying at the mid
levels of the atmosphere from north to south as the day wears on so
we will probably see warmer temps over parts of the north, with
readings approaching 60 degrees in a few locations. Further south,
where the thicker cloud cover and precip will be, afternoon highs
may struggle to get out of the middle 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
Have chances of showers gradually lowering over southeast IL during
tonight and Saturday as frontal boundary shifts southward into AR
and TN, and 1028 mb Canadian high pressure over eastern ND settles SE
across the Midwest and into the western Great Lakes region. Clouds
decrease over northern counties and expect lows in the mid to upper
30s NW of the IL river with patchy frost late tonight, more
widespread frost further NW toward IA border closer to high pressure
ridge and lighter winds. Lows 40-45F SE of the IL river. Cool highs
in the upper 50s and lower 60s Saturday with more sunshine northern
counties. Just a slight chance of showers over southeast IL south of
I-70 where more clouds prevail.
00Z forecast models have trended slower with returning moisture into
central IL Sat night and Sunday as frontal boundary south of IL
begins lifting back north. Have central IL dry yet Sat evening with
20-30% pops in southeast IL. Then have low chances of showers
spreading NE across central IL during overnight Sat night into
Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms mainly stay SE of CWA through Sunday.
Highs Sunday in upper 50s and lower 60s over central IL and low to
mid 60s in southeast IL. Better chances of showers arriving Sunday
night with isolated thunderstorms in southeast IL as short waves
from the SW beginning moving into IL and interacting with increasing
moisture from the gulf.
Extended models continue to show a strong full latitude upper level
trof moving east into the MS river valley by 12Z Tue and developing
a cutoff low near IL by middle of next week. Strong surface low
pressure to eject NE from the southern plains into the Great Lakes
region early next week and bring showers and chance of thunderstorms
Mon-Mon night. Heavy rains likely over eastern/SE IL where 1-2
inches with locally higher amounts near the Wabash river. Also
severe thunderstorms could also be an increasing risk over southeast
IL Monday afternoon/evening. Continue chances of showers Tue and
added 20-30% chances of showers Tue night and Wed as models
(especially the ECMWF) show cutoff low near IL keeping it cloudier
and cooler.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
VFR conditions are expected thru this forecast period. Band of
showers mainly south of I-72 early this morning and expecting
the measurable rainfall to occur even further south today.
Our northern TAF locations (KPIA, KBMI) will remain dry while
our southern TAF sites, other than some very light showers or
sprinkles early this morning and again after 19z, will remain dry.
The threat for rain will shift well south of the TAF sites after
23z as high pressure settles southeast into the region tonight.
Surface winds will remain out of the northeast at 10 to 15 kts
today, and then diminish to 5 to 10 kts tonight from the northeast.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
708 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
Upper shortwave trough axis this morning was centered over
northern New Mexico. An embedded shortwave trough and residual
moisture associated with this system has contributed to scattered
showers and thunderstorms earlier this evening. Another round of
light to moderate showers continues to build east over central and
western Kansas at this hour as dynamic lift increases over western
KS. Ongoing heaviest convection is progged to remain near the warm
front across western OK towards the KS and OK border through
today.
Across northeast KS this morning, short term guidance follows radar
trends in spreading light to moderate showers into the region within
the next few hours. Based on the track of the upper trough, highest
probabilities for heavier rain showers through late afternoon
reside near the Interstate 70 corridor and points southward. Rainfall
amounts today for this area range from a tenth to just over an inch.
Locally higher amounts are possible. Latest RAP analysis shows very
weak mid level instability across these locations where isolated
embedded thunder is possible. Further north over north central KS,
less than a tenth of an inch is expected as dry air associated with
a surface high over South Dakota gradually invades south. This dry and
stable air will dissipate showers from north to south through the
afternoon effectively coming to an end this evening.
Overcast cloud cover lingers during the afternoon with clearing
occurring over north central areas by early evening. Highs reflect
where heavier showers and denser stratus are expected with readings
in the lower 50s. Scattered to broken cloud cover over east central
KS this evening will hold lows into the 40s. Light winds and clear
skies for north central areas could drop lows to the mid and upper
30s. Patchy frost may be possible in low lying areas where cooler
temps exist.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
For Saturday, models are in reasonable agreement that the mid level
energy will shear out and move east while dry air builds in from the
north. With this in mind, have removed the small POPs across east
central and far eastern KS. Am not all that excited about precip
chances for Saturday night either as models so the better synoptic
forcing remaining west. However there are signs of some low level
moisture return with the low level jet Saturday night. At this point
models forecast soundings do not indicate much if any vertical
motion with the low level jet focused mainly across MO. And there
really isn`t any elevated instability to speak of. Therefore
continued with a dry forecast, but may need to watch later model
runs for maybe some light precip if the low level jet ends up a
little further west. Clouds are most likely to hang in across east
central KS during the day Saturday while northern KS sees mostly
sunny skies. Think this cloud cover over east central KS may keep
afternoon highs in the mid 50s while sunshine helps warm temps to
around 60 elsewhere. Lows Saturday night should be a little warmer
with increasing cloud cover and a southerly wind.
Precip continues to look likely by Sunday afternoon through Monday
morning. Again there is good agreement among the various model
solutions for an amplifying mid level trough to move across the
plains with cyclogenesis developing over OK. Increasing moisture
ahead of this wave along with increasing PVA and lift from a frontal
boundary should lead to another round of showers and thunderstorms.
While there is not a great deal of instability with this system,
model forecast soundings do show mid level lapse rates steepening
Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Because of this will include a
mention of thunder. Model timing suggests precip will be most likely
Sunday night as the front moves through. With models in good
agreement, have trended POPs across east central KS up to 80
percent. Precip chances should gradually diminish through the day
Monday from west to east as the system progresses east. Highs Sunday
should be a little warmer due to low level warm air advection.
However did not go quite as warm as the warm air advection or MOS
guidance would suggest thinking increasing clouds could inhibit the
warming trend. Also Mondays highs are forecast to be in the lower
and mid 60s. However if the precip and clouds clear out sooner in
the day, there does not appear to be much cold air with this system
and temps could be 5 degrees or so warmer.
Have kept a dry dry forecast for Monday night through Thursday with
a warming trend in temps. There seems to be considerably more
uncertainty in the synoptic patter for next week and run to run
inconsistencies from the ECMWF do not help much. At this point, any
cutoff mid level low is expected to remain east of the forecast
area. If there is no cutoff, then the stronger shortwave depicted in
the GFS looks to stay just to the north of the forecast area on
Thursday. Therefore it appears dry weather is a more likely outcome
and with no intrusions of cold air, temps should warm back into the
70s by Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
Light showers and MVFR cigs persist at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK. Short term
guidance improves cigs to VFR aft 14Z as drier air over northern
KS advects southward. Will monitor trends but believe IFR cigs
reside south of terminals where heavier rainfall is expected.
Upper wave passes through near 00Z while profile soundings dry out
at the low levels. Will mention VCSH aft 21Z for any lingering
activity.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Bowen
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1033 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.UPDATE...
TOWERING CUMULUS AND SOME CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ON VISIBLE IMAGERY
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WERE FORMING ON COMBINATION OF
LAKE/SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES AND OTHER MORE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES. RADAR ALSO INDICATED A FEW SHOWERS OVER
SOME COASTAL AREAS.
THE MORNING LIX SOUNDING INDICATED RATHER LOW TRIGGER/CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES DUE TO UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE LOW
LEVELS. ALSO...VARIOUS LARGER SCALE AND MESOSCALE MODEL
SOLUTIONS AND MOS GUIDANCE IS ALSO PICKING UP ON THIS AND SUGGESTS
THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST LAND
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE CLEANED UP THE FORECASTS FOR
THE ENDING OF THE MORNING FOG AND THE EXPANDED AREA OF SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES. 22/TD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014/
SHORT TERM...
MOIST GULF MARINE LAYER OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL MAINTAIN MORE OF
A SUMMER CLOUD COVER PATTERN. DEEP FETCHED ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE CONVERGENT CLOUD STREETS THAT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
FOCUS AND LIFT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS
INDICATED BY THE SHORT RANGE HRRR AND WRF MODELS. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES EACH
AFTERNOON AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE INDICATED
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH INDICATING AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH WITH A COUPLET
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH AS IT
APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE THE BULK OF SEVERE
WEATHER DOES APPEAR TO PASS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE
DEGREE OF UPPER LEVEL COOLING...FRONTAL FORCING AND AMBIENT DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE DOES FAVOR SQUALL LINE DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AS IS MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
THE LATEST STORM PREDICTION CENTER DAY 4 OUTLOOK HAS INTRODUCED A
RISK AREA FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THAT
PERIOD AND THIS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
STRONGEST ON TUESDAY WITH SHARP TROUGH ALOFT...BUT THE ADVECTION
NEUTRALIZES RATHER QUICKLY WHILE SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS ACROSS THE
GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUAL WARMING TREND ONSETS INTO
THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...
IFR AND LOW END MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD LIFT
QUICKLY BY 14Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN
COVERAGE TODAY...MAINLY FOCUSED ON CONVERGENCE STREETS DOWNWIND
FROM MOISTURE SOURCES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION
IN ANY TAF LOCATION AT THIS TIME.
MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW TO MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND RELATIVELY
LOW SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF
DEVELOPING DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE LOWER PLAINS STATES
MONDAY...WINDS OVER THE NORTH GULF SHOULD INCREASE TO MODERATE
LEVELS. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL USHER COOLER
AND DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL LIKELY WARRANT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 88 69 84 68 / 20 10 20 20
BTR 88 69 87 69 / 20 10 20 10
ASD 87 68 86 67 / 20 10 20 10
MSY 88 72 86 72 / 20 10 20 10
GPT 85 69 84 68 / 20 10 20 10
PQL 85 65 85 64 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1045 AM FRI OCT 10 2014
.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW
LEVEL GULF INFLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHICH PROVIDED OUR STRATUS
COVERAGE FOR THIS MORNING. PWATS WERE RUNNING AROUND 1.7 INCHES WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WELL
AS LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS. THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WAS NOTED ACROSS
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA THROUGH NORTH MISSISSIPPI. AREA RADARS WERE
PICKING UP SHOWERS NORTH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL MEAN FLAT RIDGING WAS NOTED WITH WESTERLY FLOW. DECENT UPPER
DIVERGENCE WAS NOTED WITH THE CONVECTION ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT.
SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED MEAN EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 20-30 KNOTS...0-6
KM SHEAR 30S KNOTS...0-8KM SHEAR 40 KNOTS AND 100 SRH IN THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. SO THE STORMS IN THE NORTH COMBINED
WITH A LITTLE INSTABILITY COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS SPC HAS A 5 PERCENT WIND RISK FOR THAT AREA. HOWEVER
ANY CONVECTION ALONG THE TN VALLEY FRONT MAY RESULT IN AN OUTFLOW
PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION...WHICH BEARS
WATCHING CONSIDERING THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. IF THAT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OCCURS MAY HAVE TO PUT AN LIMITED RISK FOR THIS NORTH FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THE HWO. OTHERWISE MADE NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE ZONES OTHER THAN WORDING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WRF MODELS SHOWS DECENT ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH FOR
THIS AFTERNOON./17/
./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...423 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
HIGHER RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED TODAY VS. YESTERDAY AS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND SOME ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS COMBINED
WITH CONTINUED SURFACE MIXING WINDS HAVE HAMPERED ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR. HRRR HAS BACKED OFF ON ANY DENSE VISIBILITIES
IN SE MS WHERE STRATUS SEEMS TO BE THE DOMINANT CONDENSATION
ELEMENT VS. FOG. WILL MONITOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT ANY DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP AND WILL PULL CURRENT
HWO/GRAPHIC. THAT BEING STATED, SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH 9AM BUT JUST DON`T THINK IT WILL BECOME DENSE AND
BE STRATUS IN NATURE. SECONDLY, NAM12 INDICATES ISENTROPIC LIFT
EARLY THIS MORNING THAT COULD AID IN SHOWER GENERATION AND HAVE
ADDED LIGHT SHOWER WORDING THROUGH EARLY TO MID MORNING.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF REGION AS PWATS FURTHER
INCREASE TOWARDS 1.6-1.7" IN PRESENCE OF ~1000 J/KG MLCAPE DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
TODAY AREA WIDE. BY EARLY EVENING, A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL
MOVE ALONG A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IN AR AND COULD AID IN AN
ORGANIZED LINEAR CONVECTIVE BAND PER HI-RES AND SPC SSEO OUTPUT.
WHILE THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER OUR AREA LOOK TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY
EVENING, THIS LINEAR BAND SHOULD REMAIN MORE INTACT AND APPROACH THE
DELTA LATE TONIGHT. THIS LINE SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, ANOTHER AND STRONGER IMPULSE OVER
TX MAY HELP ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION ACROSS LA/AR THAT
COULD SPREAD INTO THE DELTA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HOW THIS WILL
EVOLVE INTO SATURDAY AFTN FOR THE 82 CORRIDOR IS STILL IN QUESTION.
OVERALL MODEL ENVELOP (EC/GEM/UKMET/NAM) KEEPS BEST RAIN/TSTORM
CHANCES/QPF IN DELTA AREA AND NORTH SAT AFTN AS MODELS PROG A WEAK
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN AR THAT WOULD ACT TO KEEP THE FRONT
FARTHER NORTH. ONLY OUTLIER IS GFS WITH A WEAKER INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH THAT ALLOWS FOR FRONT TO OOZE SOUTH AND THUS ELEVATES RAIN
TOTALS FOR NORTH HALF OF AREA. HAVE WEIGHTED FORECAST TOWARD
ENVELOPE AVERAGE WHICH IS MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH WPC QPF GUIDANCE.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER SATURDAY AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP
READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH. /ALLEN/
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL COMBINE
WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARM DAY WITH WAA SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON. GREATEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL
TOP OUT ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 80S AT MOST SITES. MAIN FOCUS OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A POTENT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST CONUS SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT HELPING TO DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
MONDAY EVENING. NEAR 80-100M HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING
AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. IN RESPONSE...WIND FIELDS WILL
STRENGTHEN MONDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM INCLUDING 50-60KT
50H AND 40-50KT 85H FLOW LEADING TO 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 45KTS
WITH STRONG 0-1KM AND 0-3KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES. SURFACE DEW
POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH PWS OF 1.7
POOLING TO NEAR TWO INCHES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 80S WILL LEND TO MLCAPES 1000-1500J/KG. LOCAL COOL SEASON
SEVERE WEATHER CHECKLIST POINTS TO AN INCREASED POTENTIAL OF NUMEROUS
SEVERE STORMS WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT. LATEST CIPS RUN CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME IMPRESSIVE SEVERE WEATHER ANALOGUES FOR PAST SYSTEMS WITH
SIMILAR PARAMETERS. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...TORNADOES AND SOME HAIL...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
A CONCERN. MODEL RUN ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA LOOK REASONABLE. THE GFS IS STILL A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND FARTHER NORTH IN CLOSING OFF A LOW OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT BUT MODEL CONSENSUS SHIFTS THE
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL EAST OF OUR CWA BY TUESDAY MORNING. DEPENDING
ON THE ACTUAL POSITION OF THE CLOSED LOW...LIGHT RAIN MAY HOLD IN THE
NORTH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT TUESDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN THE 70S. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AREAWIDE. SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST OVER OUR CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND NORTHWEST WIND ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT CLOSE TO
NORMAL IN THE LOWER 50S AT MOST SITES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
SHIFTING EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. RIDGING ALOFT WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER
OUR CWA THURSDAY AND SHIFT EAST OF OUR REGION FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. /22/
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS SLOW TO BURN OFF THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT IN THE CIG CATEGORY BEFORE 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY NIGHT PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR CIGS
REDEVELOP TONIGHT AFTER 06Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 89 69 85 67 / 29 21 35 26
MERIDIAN 88 67 86 65 / 27 19 26 23
VICKSBURG 89 68 84 67 / 31 34 49 33
HATTIESBURG 89 68 89 65 / 21 14 20 16
NATCHEZ 88 69 85 68 / 27 14 37 22
GREENVILLE 89 67 78 67 / 38 69 75 55
GREENWOOD 88 66 79 66 / 38 47 58 55
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
17/SCW/ALLEN/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1127 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK, DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT AND SPREAD LIGHT RAIN TO THE WYOMING
VALLEY...POCONOS...AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS OVERNIGHT. THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARMER
WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KTYX RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TRACKING
ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. LAKE ONTARIO TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE UPPER 50S F WHICH TRANSLATES TO 14-15C. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO 1C WHICH IS LEADING TO A 13-14C TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENTIAL. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME MODEST WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
ADVECTING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE LARGE CYCLONE OVER EASTERN
CANADA WAS SUPPORTING SOME LAKE EFFECT SHRA. THE FLOW BETWEEN 900 AND
800 MB WAS DUE WESTERLY LATE THIS MORNING. THE FLOW IS PROJECTED
BY THE RAP, HRRR AND NAM TO VEER MORE NWRLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
OCCUR IN CONCERT WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND SHUD ALLOW THE LAKE
EFFECT SHRA TO BREAK UP BY 20Z OR SO. RADAR LOOP ALREADY SHOWS
THIS AND WE WILL CONT THIS TREND IN THE GRIDS.
NEXT WEATHER FEATURE TO AFFECT CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA IS A
SOUTHERN BRANCH WAVE WHICH WAS PRESENTLY MOVING ACRS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO OHIO VALLEY. THE ASSCTD UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL UNDERCUT
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WHICH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
SLOWER THAN THIS SRN BRANCH WAVE. THIS WILL LEAD TO UPPER
CONFLUENCE OVER MUCH OF C AND NRN NY TO NRN NEW ENGLAND AND SE
CANADA BY THIS EVENING AND SUPPORT AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THE
POSITIONING OF THIS JET STREAK PUTS MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN PA IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SUPPORTG UVV LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. HI RES
MESOSCALE MODELS WHICH AGREE WITH THE PRESENT RADAR ECHOES SUPPORT A
RAIN SHIELD HEADING NE AND AFFECTING NE PA WITH LIGHT RAINFALL. THERE WILL
BE A SHARP CUT OFF TO THE RAIN FARTHER N. BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW
FAR N WILL THE RAIN MAKE IT. WE DIDNT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAINFALL AS WE ARE WAITING FOR THE LATEST
12Z GUIDC TO COME IN. SO WE FOLLOWED PREVIOUS SHIFTS IDEA OF
HIGHEST POPS IN THE POCONOS WHICH BACK OFF TO SLGHT CHC NEAR THE
NY BRDR TO THE CATSKILLS. TIMING IS FROM ABT 22Z TODAY TO 14Z
SAT. REST OF FORECAST AREA WILL SEE MAINLY MID TO HI CLDS STREAM
OVERHEAD THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH SOME CUMULUS
FORMING IN NC NY WHERE THE CIRRUS WILL BE THINNER INITIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
430 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS END QUICKLY EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE WEEKEND LOOKING DRY.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND CRESTING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT, WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FROST LOOK LIKELY. WHILE WE ARE INTO
OUR SECOND WEEK OF OCTOBER, SOME OF OUR WARMER AREAS SUCH AS THE
LAKE PLAIN HAVE NOT SEEN A FROST YET SO FROST HEADLINES MAY BE
NEEDED AS WE GET A BIT CLOSER. THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
SUNDAY NIGHT IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST OF A
HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN IS STILL IN LINE WITH THE 0Z EURO, WHICH SHOWS
RAIN AREA WIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND NAM ARE
COMPLETELY DRY OUTSIDE OF A LATE NIGHT SHOWER OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND NEWER
GUIDANCE, WHILE STILL SHOWING SOME WEIGHT OF OUR PREVIOUS
FORECAST/EURO SOLUTION, LOWERED POPS INTO THE 25% RANGE. THE TREND
HOWEVER WOULD SUGGEST RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE AMPLIFIED TROF PASSING THRU THE RGN
MIDWEEK. BIG QUESTIONS ARE THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM...RELATED
TO THE POTNL FOR THE TROF TO CUT-OFF AS IT LIFTS NEWD. LTL CHG TO THE
CRNT FCST WHICH IS BASED ON HPC GUIDANCE. WARM TEMPS ON MON- TUE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MSTR TO WORK WITH AND POTNL FOR
+RA WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WLY FLOW CONTS WITH A LRG UPR LOW OVER ERN QUEBEC. THIS WILL KEEP
GNRLY DRY CONDS AND VFR CIGS AND VSBYS THRU THE PD. WV DVLPG OVER
THE MS VLY WILL RACE EAST LTR TODAY AND WILL INCRS CLDS OVER AVP
TWRD THE END OF THE PD...BUT CLD DECK SHD REMAIN IN THE VFR
CAT...AND PCPN SHD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFT 12Z.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN NGT...VFR.
MON/TUE...DEEP SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF CNTRL U.S. TROF RESULTING IN
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CIGS/SHRA/BR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/HEDEN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
635 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL ZONE OSCILLATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ROUNDS OF WET
WEATHER. STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MID
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES ATTM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
FOCUS DURING THE NEAR TERM WILL BE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT AND
TIMING DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. USED HRRR FOR THE
INTO MID MORNING FOR POPS WHICH WILL FEATURE ONE BAND OF -SHRA
ACROSS SE OH/C AND N WV. MEANWHILE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THRU KY
AND INTO WV THIS MORNING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS ALONG AND N OF
BOUNDARY WITH MORE CONVECTIVE PRECIP ACROSS S WV/SW VA. THIS
FEATURE QUICKLY MOVES E OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY WITH PERHAPS A LULL
IN ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY MAY SLIP A BIT S INTO S
ZONES FOR A TIME.
EXPECT PRECIP TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW AND
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES AND
ENERGIZES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT WITH AID FROM AMPLIFYING
UPPER TROF. DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG FRONT AND WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS REGARDING WATER CONCERNS TOMORROW NIGHT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS S ZONES WHERE PRECIP MAY BE MORE CONVECTIVE IN
NATURE. WILL HOLD CONVECTION ACROSS SE WV AND SW VA PER
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND THETA E. FELT NAM WAS A BIT SLOW WITH
PROGRESSION OF SURFACE LOW AND SIDED MORE WITH FASTER GFS. AS SUCH
BEGIN TO DECREASE PRECIP FROM NW TO SE TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING FOR SE OH.
FOR TEMPS...FELT BEST TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP TODAY. EXCEPTION BEING S OF FRONT IN SE WV
AND SW VA WITH TEMPS MAY APPROACH 70F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE WAVE
ALONG THE FRONT ON SATURDAY. NAM IS THE SLOWEST AND APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER AS THE SREF IS IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS.
THEREFORE...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE GFS/SREF SOLUTION. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WAFFLES BACK NORTHWARD SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. GOOD
FORCING...SO WILL INCREASE POPS A BIT WITH THIS FEATURE. BY LATE
MONDAY...FORECAST AREA MOVES INTO THE WARM SECTOR WHICH APPEARS TO BE
DRY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE. WILL REMOVE POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RELATIVELY QUITE WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS ON HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.
H850 WIND FLOW OF 55 TO 60 KNOTS BY BOTH MODELS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING.
WATER PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...AS A HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
BLENDED IN WPC AND BIAS CORRECTED GFS BASED MOS GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WILL BE TRACKING A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS S WV THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH CONVECTIVE
PRECIP REMAINING S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OVER SE WV AND SW VA.
CIGS SHOULD ALSO LOWER ALONG FRONTAL ZONE AND N...TO AFFECT MOST
TERMINALS SAVE FOR KBKW. GRADUALLY LOWER CIGS THRU MVFR AND INTO
IFR BY THIS EVENING WITH PREDOMINATELY MVFR VSBY IN SHRA. HOWEVER
THIS COULD EASILY BE IFR SHOULD CIGS LOWER MORE THAN EXPECTED.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THRU TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW-MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DEPENDING ON ARRIVAL OF MAIN WAVES OF THE RAIN
...TIMING THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL VARY AND JUST HOW LOW THEY WILL
GO.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H =
HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M =
MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW:
TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H M M H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR IN CEILINGS IN WAKE OF THE WAVE FOR SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TUESDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1032 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION
TODAY INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND CROSSES THE REGION ON TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM...MODELS ARE INITIALIZING A VORT MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN
ZONAL FLOW OVER CENTRAL TN EARLY THIS MORNING. AND THAT SHORTWAVE
WILL TRACK ACRS THE CWFA THIS AFTN. AT THE SFC...A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT WAS ANALYZED WEST TO EAST FROM OKLAHOMA...THRU THE TN
VALLEY...TO THE DELMARVA. OUR AREA IS WITHIN A MOISTENING WARM
SECTOR AIR MASS...WITH SWLY LLVL FLOW. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME
STUBBORN LOW STRATUS ACRS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT...FROM NE GA TO THE
CHARLOTTE AREA. THESE CLOUDS SHUD GRADUALLY MIX OUT WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THE RAP SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS. IT HAS ISOLD
CONVECTION FIRING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHWRS/TSTMS ACRS TN AND NC MTNS THIS AFTN. SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO
THE POPS ARE NEEDED. BASED ON THE EXPECTED 1000+ J/KG OF CAPE WHERE
HEATING IS MAXIMIZED...AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS AGAIN LIKE
YESTERDAY...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE WORDING IN THE
HWO LOOKS GOOD...WITH A MENTION OF AN ISOLD SEVERE THREAT. TEMPS
LOOK ON TRACK (ABOUT 8 DEG ABOVE NORMAL)...ALTHO IF CLOUDS LINGER
INTO EARLY AFTN...A FEW LOCATIONS ACRS THE UPSTATE MAY NOT QUITE
REACH THEIR FCST HIGHS.
THE FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL START TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DECREASE ONLY
SLOWLY...SUCH THAT EVENING CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
SOUNDINGS BECOME WEAKLY CAPPED IN THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT NOT
SO IN THE EAST. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN OVER 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM FRI...THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GA SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR AIR S OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DAY ON SAT.
PEAK AFTERNOON INSTABILITY OF 1000 J/KG OR GREATER AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT SCT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY SAT AFTN. THIS
SHOULD BE THE FINAL DAY OF WARM MAXES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL THEN STEADILY SLIP SWD INTO THE REGION
SAT NIGHT AND PUSH S OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS
1025 MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER TO THE N. WEAK H5 SHORTWAVES IN
THE WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE EWD OVER THE BOUNDARY TO
ENHANCE LIFTING AT TIMES OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. COOL
CAD MAX TEMPS WILL SWING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
MEANWHILE...A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM SRN
MANITOBA THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO W TX BY LATE SUNDAY...WITH
MOIST UPGLIDE DEVELOPING WELL AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE BACKDOOR
BOUNDARY IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD YIELD SOLID CHC POPS
FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SMALL
DIURNAL RANGE ON TEMPS THROUGHOUT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM EDT FRI...A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
SHARPEN UP AS IT MOVES EWD TOWARD THE MS RIVER ON MON...POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING A CLOSED CIRCULATION NEAR OR NORTH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY
BY MON NIGHT. SRLY FLOW AND UPGLIDE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH THROUGH MON AS AN 850 MB JET FORMS AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS.
IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MUCH THE EXISTING SFC CAD LAYER
CAN SCOUR ON MON GIVEN THE RETURNING WARM SECTOR AND INCREASING SRLY
FLOW ALONG WITH A RELATIVE LULL IN UPPER FORCING. IT IS LIKELY THAT
SOME DEGREE OF CAD WILL PERSIST...AT LEAST OVER THE NRN HALF...AND
TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN FOR MON.
THE FIRST ROUND OF STRONGER...DISCRETE CELLULAR CONVECTION AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND SHARP COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY START
CLOSING IN ON THE FORECAST AREA FROM NRN GA TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE.
STRONG UPPER FOCING AHEAD OF THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE. NEARLY ALL OF THE
MODEL/ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE COMING IN LINE WITH A TUE TIMING FOR
THE SYSTEM...AND HIGH LIKELY TO LOW END CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE
FEATURED FOR THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A MAINLY AFTN
FOCUS.
THE SRLY LOW LEVEL JET WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SFC TO 3
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 50 KT TUE AFTN. ANY SEMBLANCE OF A
TRIPLE POINT LOW PRES CENTER MOVING ENE ALONG A RETREATING WEDGE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WOULD FOCUS MUCH OF THAT SHEAR IN THE SFC TO 1 KM
LAYER AND HEIGTHEN THE TORNADO THREAT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA TUE
AFTN. SOME LIMITING FACTORS FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE RELATIVELY
MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE DEEP TROUGH AND VERY DEEP
MOISTURE IN THE SOUNDINGS TO LIMIT SFC BASED CAPE. HOWEVER...DEEP
DYNAMICAL FORCING MIGHT WELL OVERCOME ANY DEFICIENCIES IN
INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL LIKELY SURGE TO NEARLY TWO INCHES IN THE BEST MOISTURE
FLUX TUE. A FOCUS OF TERRAIN FORCED PRECIPITATION COULD WELL LEAD TO
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES/TOTALS IN THE MTNS...WITH PERHAPS MORE
ISOLD/TRAINING TYPE HYDRO ISSUES OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. THE CURRENT
SEVERE/HYDRO THREAT WORDING IN THE HWO APPEARS WELL PLACED FOR TUE.
EXPECT FROPA THROUGHOUT BY TUE NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE AND DEEP LAYER DRYING ARRIVING BY WED. WINDY CONDITIONS POST
FROPA WILL LINGER THROUGH WED BEFORE THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES ON
THU AS RIDGING BECOMES DOMINANT ONCE AGAIN. BELOW NORMAL MAXES WED
WILL START TO MODERATE ON THU. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF ISOLD
FROST PROBLEMS IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE MTNS THU MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...LOW VFR CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TODAY...EVENTUALLY FORMING A CIG. THE CURRENT DEW POINT DEPRESSION
DOES NOT SUPPORT DAYBREAK FOG...BUT GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A
MARGINAL MVFR VSBY IN FOG SATURDAY MORNING...AND PERHAPS AN MVFR
CIG. AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...PERHAPS LASTING INTO
THE EVENING. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SSW...WITH GUSTS DURING DAYLIGHT
HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS NOT BEEN AS WIDESPREAD AS
ANTICIPATED...AND FOG HAS EVEN DIMINISHED IN SOME LOCATIONS. WITH
LOW DE POINT DEPRESSIONS...BRIEF DAYBREAK FOG MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE
HOWEVER. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AT SOME FOOTHILL SITES UNTIL MID
MORNING. ON SATURDAY MORNING...GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MVFR VSBY IN THE
FOOTHILLS...WITH AT LEAST IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE AN IFR OR
LOWER CIG RESTRICTION SEEMS PROBABLE AT KAVL SATURDAY MORNING...SOME
GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE LEANING THAT WAY IN THE FOOTHILLS. CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LIMITED FOR IFR CIGS IN THE FOOTHILLS AT THIS TIME.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON TODAY...IF NOT SOONER IN THE
MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SSW...WITH THE GREATEST GUSTS DURING
DAYLIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK...RESTRICIONS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY IN A MOIST AIR MASS
THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVING TUESDAY WILL BRING A
THREAT OF VERY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z
KCLT HIGH 99% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 91%
KGSP HIGH 92% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 93%
KAVL HIGH 97% HIGH 99% HIGH 94% HIGH 83%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 97% MED 77%
KGMU HIGH 87% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 89%
KAND HIGH 88% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 88%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1149 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC WILL KEEP PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS
GOING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS SYSTEM MAY PUSH
SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...BUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1148 AM EDT FRIDAY...
ADJUSTED POPS WITH RADAR TRENDS. IN GENERAL...EXTENDED THE
EASTERN EXTENT OF HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH...EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PIEDMONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NUDGED UP
QPF FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST. LOWERED TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST WITH
CLOUDS AND RAIN. MORE CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON...
AS OF 941 AM EDT FRIDAY...
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SHAPED THE POPS TOWARDS A BLEND
OF THE HRRR AND RNK WRKARW FOR LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST TRENDS AND LEANED LATE MORNING
VALUES TOWARDS LAV GUIDANCE WHICH SEEM TO CAPTURE COOLER READINGS
BEST. SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK KEEPS US IN GENERAL THUNDER
WITH THE SEE TEXT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WINDS TO OUR SOUTHWEST
ACROSS TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND INSTABILITY. MORE
CHANGES LATER THIS MORNING.
AS OF 240 AM EDT FRIDAY...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS THE FLOW
ALOFT TURNS MORE SW BEHIND EXITING HIGH PRESSURE AND AHEAD OF SURFACE
ENERGY HEADING NE FROM THE WESTERN TN VALLEY. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
APPROACH OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE
THE LOW LEVEL FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A QUICK INFLUX OF HIGHER
PWATS OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOST MODELS INCLUDING
THE LATEST SREF CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE CORRIDOR OF HEAVIEST SHOWERS OVER
THE NW WHERE BETTER LIFT LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE 85H THETA-E
GRADIENT JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HOWEVER THIS LIKELY MORESO
THIS EVENING...AND OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD...WITH
MORE WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN SHOWERS TODAY IN THE LINGERING ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AIDED BY A LEAD WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE.
CURRENT CONVECTIVE BAND OVER KY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE HIGHER
DEWPOINT/THETA-E RIDGING LOOKS TO BE THE INIT SHOT OF SHRA THIS MORNING
AS IT SLIDES INTO THE WEST/NW TOWARD 12Z...THEN EAST TO ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE AND NORTHERN SECTIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST OF THIS
PRECIP EXPECTING MORE HEATING WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATER ON AND ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES
PER STRONGER WARM ADVECTION. THUS PUSHING LIKELY/CAT POPS A BIT FASTER
ACROSS THE WEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EAST BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON WHERE AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES LOOK BEST PENDING
HEATING/MOISTURE. HIGH TEMPS DEPENDENT UPON THE DEGREE OF EARLY CLOUDS
AND EASTWARD EXPANSE OF SHRA GIVEN WARM TEMPS ALOFT. FOR NOW STUCK
CLOSE TO THE MOS CONSENSUS OF MOSTLY 70S...BUFFERED BY 60S FAR NW AND
LOW 80S SE.
GUIDANCE TRACKS A SURFACE WAVE RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND TO
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE. BEST LIFT AGAIN GETS PINCHED OVER
THE NW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...LOW PRESSURE OVER VA...AND
THE TIGHT THETA-E GRADIENT ALOFT OVER WEST VA. PROGGED AXIS OF UPPER
DIFFLUENCE WORKING THROUGH THE NW SECTIONS WOULD SUPPORT A SWATH OF
HEAVIER RAIN...ESPCLY GREENBRIER VALLEY/VA HIGHLANDS TONIGHT...BUT
EXACTLY WHERE THAT CORRIDOR SETS UP STILL IFFY AS APPEARS COULD BE
FARTHER NORTH THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. RAINFALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS
WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS HEADING OFF TO THE SE BUT STILL SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE THREAT SOUTH/SE IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
OTRW CAT/LIKELY POPS MAINLY HIGHWAY 460 AND POINTS NORTH AS WELL AS SW
INTO THE NC RIDGES THIS EVENING...TAPERING TO OVERALL CHANCE TO LOW
LIKELYS ACROSS THE NORTH/NE BY DAYBREAK. QPF LOOKS RATHER SIMILAR TO
THE LAST EVENT WITH BETTER THAN AN INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT NW
THIRD WHILE QUICKLY RANGING DOWN TO LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH FAR
SOUTH/SE. SINCE HAVE SEEN A COUPLE DAYS OF DECENT DRYING...AND NOT
EXPECTING RAINFALL RATES TO BE THAT HIGH...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD
WATCHES FOR THE NW AT THIS POINT. OTRW MILDER LOWS UNDER CLOUDS AND
WARM ADVECTION AS MOST WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AT BEST
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT FRIDAY...
ON SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS OFFER THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY
THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY THAT
TIME...THE FOCUS FOR MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE NC/VA BORDER. WITH AN AFTERNOON ARRIVAL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABLE TO CLIMB IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE REGION TO THE UPPER 70S.
REGIONS WEST AND NORTH OF HERE WILL EXPERIENCE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOONER
WITH ACCORDINGLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST. LOWER 60S WILL
BE COMMON FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL SINK TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION ALL
WHILE THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF
THE APPALACHIANS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO BUCKLE BACK NORTH WITH PRECIPITATION
RETURNING TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF THE EAST
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE
CENTRAL U.S. LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION WILL STRENGTHEN AND
TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY FLOW HEADING INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES AFTER A COOL DAY ON SUNDAY...PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER...AND CONTINUAL CHANCES OF UPSLOPE RAIN FOCUSED ALONG
THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST AND
EAST.
BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT
ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL KY/TN. AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES...THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL VERY GUSTY WINDS ON THE
PREFERRED S-SE FLOW DOWNSLOPE REGION BETWEEN ROUGHLY RICHLANDS VA
AND BLUEFIELD WV AS 850 MB FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE ANYWHERE BETWEEN
45 AND 55 KTS. WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
WIND AND GUSTS IN THE REGION GIVEN LINGERING QUESTIONS ON MODEL
TIMING AND JET SPECIFICS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...
GFS AND CANADIAN WERE TRENDING TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF ON
THE 00Z RUNS...BUT NOW CUT OFF A 500 MB LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON TUESDAY...24 HOURS BEFORE THE ECMWF CLOSES OFF A LOW.
THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE TIMING OF THE
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSING THROUGH THE REGION. INTENSE
DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM MEANS THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE +14 TO +17 RANGE SURGE NORTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH ANY SUNSHINE
AT ALL ON TUESDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
WRAP AROUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WITH THE UPPER LOW ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.
DUE TO UPSLOPE WINDS IN THE WEST AS WELL AS COLD POOL ALOFT...WILL
KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT FRIDAY...
BAND OF CONVECTION HAS NOW PUSHED ACROSS KBLF AND WILL AFFECT KLWB
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND MAY SCRAPE BY NEAR KBCB/KROA SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. THINK MOST OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF
KBLF BY RELEASE TIME BUT WILL MAINTAIN MVFR VSBYS IN SHRA AND KEEP
IN A VCTS FOR ADDED UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO THE WEST. ALSO DUE TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION...BEEFED UP SHRA/TSRA AT KLWB FOR
AN HOUR OR SO EARLY THIS MORNING AND INCLUDED VCSH AT KBCB/KROA.
OTRW PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR BRIEF MVFR THROUGH ABOUT
14Z/10AM ESPCLY WHERE WESTERN SHRA WONT AFFECT EARLY ON.
OTRW BROAD LIFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL WAVE CROSSING THE TN
VALLEY INCREASES ACROSS THE NW THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE BEST
SHOWER COVERAGE LIKELY AFFECTING SPOTS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE
WESTWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SOME OF THIS COVERAGE GIVEN
THE FAST FLOW ALOFT MAY PUSH EAST OF A KROA-KHSP LINE AND AFFECT
KLYH WITH AT LEAST SOME LIGHTER VFR SHOWERS BY MIDDAY. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO BE MORE ISOLATED AROUND KDAN INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE GRADIENT IN DEEPER MOISTURE JUST TO THE NW. OVERALL SHOULD BE
MAINLY VFR EXCEPT AT KBLF/KLWB WHERE PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE ALL
DAY INCLUDING CLUSTERS OF EMBEDDED DEEPER CONVECTION. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON STORMS COULD ALSO OCCUR OVER THE PIEDMONT SO ADDED IN A
VCTS AT KDAN/KROA AND KEPT IN AT KLWB/KBLF AS NEXT BATCH OF
CONVECTION NOW OVER TN/KY PUSHES NE.
SURFACE WAVE ARRIVES THIS EVENING AND SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA ESPCLY
WESTERN SITES. THIS COULD RESULT IN MORE EXPANSIVE MVFR WITH
PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE AS CIGS LOWER FURTHER THIS EVENING. MAY
ALSO SEE MVFR WITH OCNL IFR DEVELOP ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT ESPCLY AS
SHOWERS START TO TAPER IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WAVE SO WENT
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR DEGREE OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT WHEN
THINGS SHOULD BE MORE SATURATED.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
COMBINATION OF A FRONT ACROSS THE REGION AND WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL MAKE FOR PERIODS OF SUB- VFR OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT REMAINS NEARBY WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES SETTING UP A WEDGE
SCENARIO BY SUNDAY. INTERVALS OF PASSING SHOWERS MAY ALSO MAKE FOR
PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN RAIN/FOG OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE WEDGE APPEARS TO ERODE BY NEXT MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING. MODELS FAVOR WETTER WEATHER NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD KEEP
TERMINALS IN SUB VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES ESPCLY TUESDAY WHEN
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT COULD BRING HEAVY RAINFALL INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KK/SK
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...CF/JH/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
941 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC WILL KEEP PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS
GOING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS SYSTEM MAY PUSH
SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...BUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 941 AM EDT FRIDAY...
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SHAPED THE POPS TOWARDS A BLEND
OF THE HRRR AND RNK WRKARW FOR LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST TRENDS AND LEANED LATE MORNING
VALUES TOWARDS LAV GUIDANCE WHICH SEEM TO CAPTURE COOLER READINGS
BEST. SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK KEEPS US IN GENERAL THUNDER
WITH THE SEE TEXT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WINDS TO OUR SOUTHWEST
ACROSS TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND INSTABILITY. MORE
CHANGES LATER THIS MORNING.
AS OF 240 AM EDT FRIDAY...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS THE FLOW
ALOFT TURNS MORE SW BEHIND EXITING HIGH PRESSURE AND AHEAD OF SURFACE
ENERGY HEADING NE FROM THE WESTERN TN VALLEY. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
APPROACH OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE
THE LOW LEVEL FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A QUICK INFLUX OF HIGHER
PWATS OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOST MODELS INCLUDING
THE LATEST SREF CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE CORRIDOR OF HEAVIEST SHOWERS OVER
THE NW WHERE BETTER LIFT LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE 85H THETA-E
GRADIENT JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HOWEVER THIS LIKELY MORESO
THIS EVENING...AND OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD...WITH
MORE WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN SHOWERS TODAY IN THE LINGERING ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AIDED BY A LEAD WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE.
CURRENT CONVECTIVE BAND OVER KY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE HIGHER
DEWPOINT/THETA-E RIDGING LOOKS TO BE THE INIT SHOT OF SHRA THIS MORNING
AS IT SLIDES INTO THE WEST/NW TOWARD 12Z...THEN EAST TO ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE AND NORTHERN SECTIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST OF THIS
PRECIP EXPECTING MORE HEATING WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATER ON AND ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES
PER STRONGER WARM ADVECTION. THUS PUSHING LIKELY/CAT POPS A BIT FASTER
ACROSS THE WEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EAST BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON WHERE AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES LOOK BEST PENDING
HEATING/MOISTURE. HIGH TEMPS DEPENDENT UPON THE DEGREE OF EARLY CLOUDS
AND EASTWARD EXPANSE OF SHRA GIVEN WARM TEMPS ALOFT. FOR NOW STUCK
CLOSE TO THE MOS CONSENSUS OF MOSTLY 70S...BUFFERED BY 60S FAR NW AND
LOW 80S SE.
GUIDANCE TRACKS A SURFACE WAVE RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND TO
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE. BEST LIFT AGAIN GETS PINCHED OVER
THE NW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...LOW PRESSURE OVER VA...AND
THE TIGHT THETA-E GRADIENT ALOFT OVER WEST VA. PROGGED AXIS OF UPPER
DIFFLUENCE WORKING THROUGH THE NW SECTIONS WOULD SUPPORT A SWATH OF
HEAVIER RAIN...ESPCLY GREENBRIER VALLEY/VA HIGHLANDS TONIGHT...BUT
EXACTLY WHERE THAT CORRIDOR SETS UP STILL IFFY AS APPEARS COULD BE
FARTHER NORTH THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. RAINFALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS
WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS HEADING OFF TO THE SE BUT STILL SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE THREAT SOUTH/SE IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
OTRW CAT/LIKELY POPS MAINLY HIGHWAY 460 AND POINTS NORTH AS WELL AS SW
INTO THE NC RIDGES THIS EVENING...TAPERING TO OVERALL CHANCE TO LOW
LIKELYS ACROSS THE NORTH/NE BY DAYBREAK. QPF LOOKS RATHER SIMILAR TO
THE LAST EVENT WITH BETTER THAN AN INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT NW
THIRD WHILE QUICKLY RANGING DOWN TO LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH FAR
SOUTH/SE. SINCE HAVE SEEN A COUPLE DAYS OF DECENT DRYING...AND NOT
EXPECTING RAINFALL RATES TO BE THAT HIGH...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD
WATCHES FOR THE NW AT THIS POINT. OTRW MILDER LOWS UNDER CLOUDS AND
WARM ADVECTION AS MOST WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AT BEST
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT FRIDAY...
ON SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS OFFER THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY
THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY THAT
TIME...THE FOCUS FOR MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE NC/VA BORDER. WITH AN AFTERNOON ARRIVAL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABLE TO CLIMB IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE REGION TO THE UPPER 70S.
REGIONS WEST AND NORTH OF HERE WILL EXPERIENCE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOONER
WITH ACCORDINGLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST. LOWER 60S WILL
BE COMMON FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL SINK TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION ALL
WHILE THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF
THE APPALACHIANS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO BUCKLE BACK NORTH WITH PRECIPITATION
RETURNING TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF THE EAST
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE
CENTRAL U.S. LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION WILL STRENGTHEN AND
TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY FLOW HEADING INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES AFTER A COOL DAY ON SUNDAY...PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER...AND CONTINUAL CHANCES OF UPSLOPE RAIN FOCUSED ALONG
THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST AND
EAST.
BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT
ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL KY/TN. AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES...THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL VERY GUSTY WINDS ON THE
PREFERRED S-SE FLOW DOWNSLOPE REGION BETWEEN ROUGHLY RICHLANDS VA
AND BLUEFIELD WV AS 850 MB FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE ANYWHERE BETWEEN
45 AND 55 KTS. WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
WIND AND GUSTS IN THE REGION GIVEN LINGERING QUESTIONS ON MODEL
TIMING AND JET SPECIFICS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...
GFS AND CANADIAN WERE TRENDING TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF ON
THE 00Z RUNS...BUT NOW CUT OFF A 500 MB LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON TUESDAY...24 HOURS BEFORE THE ECMWF CLOSES OFF A LOW.
THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE TIMING OF THE
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSING THROUGH THE REGION. INTENSE
DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM MEANS THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE +14 TO +17 RANGE SURGE NORTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH ANY SUNSHINE
AT ALL ON TUESDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
WRAP AROUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WITH THE UPPER LOW ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.
DUE TO UPSLOPE WINDS IN THE WEST AS WELL AS COLD POOL ALOFT...WILL
KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT FRIDAY...
BAND OF CONVECTION HAS NOW PUSHED ACROSS KBLF AND WILL AFFECT KLWB
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND MAY SCRAPE BY NEAR KBCB/KROA SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. THINK MOST OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF
KBLF BY RELEASE TIME BUT WILL MAINTAIN MVFR VSBYS IN SHRA AND KEEP
IN A VCTS FOR ADDED UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO THE WEST. ALSO DUE TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION...BEEFED UP SHRA/TSRA AT KLWB FOR
AN HOUR OR SO EARLY THIS MORNING AND INCLUDED VCSH AT KBCB/KROA.
OTRW PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR BRIEF MVFR THROUGH ABOUT
14Z/10AM ESPCLY WHERE WESTERN SHRA WONT AFFECT EARLY ON.
OTRW BROAD LIFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL WAVE CROSSING THE TN
VALLEY INCREASES ACROSS THE NW THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE BEST
SHOWER COVERAGE LIKELY AFFECTING SPOTS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE
WESTWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SOME OF THIS COVERAGE GIVEN
THE FAST FLOW ALOFT MAY PUSH EAST OF A KROA-KHSP LINE AND AFFECT
KLYH WITH AT LEAST SOME LIGHTER VFR SHOWERS BY MIDDAY. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO BE MORE ISOLATED AROUND KDAN INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE GRADIENT IN DEEPER MOISTURE JUST TO THE NW. OVERALL SHOULD BE
MAINLY VFR EXCEPT AT KBLF/KLWB WHERE PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE ALL
DAY INCLUDING CLUSTERS OF EMBEDDED DEEPER CONVECTION. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON STORMS COULD ALSO OCCUR OVER THE PIEDMONT SO ADDED IN A
VCTS AT KDAN/KROA AND KEPT IN AT KLWB/KBLF AS NEXT BATCH OF
CONVECTION NOW OVER TN/KY PUSHES NE.
SURFACE WAVE ARRIVES THIS EVENING AND SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA ESPCLY
WESTERN SITES. THIS COULD RESULT IN MORE EXPANSIVE MVFR WITH
PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE AS CIGS LOWER FURTHER THIS EVENING. MAY
ALSO SEE MVFR WITH OCNL IFR DEVELOP ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT ESPCLY AS
SHOWERS START TO TAPER IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WAVE SO WENT
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR DEGREE OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT WHEN
THINGS SHOULD BE MORE SATURATED.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
COMBINATION OF A FRONT ACROSS THE REGION AND WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL MAKE FOR PERIODS OF SUB- VFR OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT REMAINS NEARBY WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES SETTING UP A WEDGE
SCENARIO BY SUNDAY. INTERVALS OF PASSING SHOWERS MAY ALSO MAKE FOR
PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN RAIN/FOG OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE WEDGE APPEARS TO ERODE BY NEXT MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING. MODELS FAVOR WETTER WEATHER NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD KEEP
TERMINALS IN SUB VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES ESPCLY TUESDAY WHEN
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT COULD BRING HEAVY RAINFALL INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KK/SK
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...CF/JH/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1053 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.UPDATE...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS AND DELTA T VALUES CONTINUE TO FAVOR
LAKE EFFECT CLOUD FORMATION OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...AND MAY SEE SOME
OF THESE CLOUDS REACH THE SHORE FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE AIR MASS IS TOO DRY FOR LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID 50S IN MOST OF THE AREA...PER 925
MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
VFR CATEGORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
MAY SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AT MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL PUSH
EAST THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL DURING THIS TIME.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
ENOUGH THIN SPOTS IN CIRRUS OVER SRN HALF OF CWA OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S AWAY FROM LAKE MI. FROST ADVY WL REMAIN
IN EFFECT UNTIL 13Z THIS MRNG.
LOW LEVEL WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA WHILE
WINDS REMAIN MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST IN THE NORTH AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO SRN WI. MODIS IMAGERY FROM THU HAD LAKE SFC
TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...HOWEVER A SMALL AREA OF
UPWELLING HAD CAUSED COOLER TEMPS IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS NORTH OF
MILWAUKEE. BURST OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WL RESULT IN THE
DELTA-T INCREASING TO 15C TODAY. FORTUNATELY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SHORE REMAIN WEAK SO NO -SHRA ARE
EXPECTED. HOWEVER POSSIBLE THAT SOME LAKE EFFECT LOWER CLOUDS MAY
AFFECT FAR SOUTHEAST THIS MRNG...DISSIPATING THIS AFTN. WL KEEP P/S
WORDING IN THE FAR SOUTH THIS MRNG...GIVING WAY TO MORE AFTN
SUNSHINE AS TEMPS RECOVER INTO THE 50S.
MARINE LAYER WL AGAIN KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER BY THE LAKE TNGT
DESPITE LAND BREEZE DEVELOPING. FARTHER INLAND...SIMILAR LOW LEVEL
TEMPS AND BOUNDARY LAYER WIND CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
NIGHT OF TEMPS FALLING MOSTLY TO THE LOW TO MID 30S. NO CIRRUS IS
EXPECTED SO COLDER TEMPS ARE LIKELY IN THE SOUTH AS WELL. NEARBY
WARMER LAKE AND URBAN HEAT ISLAND WL KEEP KFLD AND KMSN SLIGHTLY
WARMER AS WELL. HENCE ANOTHER FROST ADVY WL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
TNGT.
SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WI SATURDAY MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VERY DRY AIR
OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. ALTHOUGH EXPECT A
FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT... SO A LAKE BREEZE
IS FORECAST ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.
LONG TERM...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A STRONG UPPER JET WILL DIVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE A 500MB TROUGH
TO AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A
PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE MIDWEST ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY... REACHING SOUTHERN WI IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH THIS INITIAL SURGE OF QPF
INTO SOUTHERN WI... SO KEPT THE SMALL CHANCE POPS.
THE NAM AND GFS MAINTAIN LIGHT QPF OVER SOUTHERN WI SUNDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF CAME IN DRY WITH THE LULL BETWEEN
SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET ENERGY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING SUNDAY... SO EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO SAT AND SUN NIGHT
LOWS A LITTLE MORE MILD.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS A DELAYED ONSET OF
THE HEAVIER RAIN IN SOUTHERN WI... AND ALSO A LONGER PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
MONDAY... RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM SECTOR IN SOUTHEAST WI
DUE TO UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE UPPER JET AND SHORTWAVES OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN SOUTHERN WI
NOW LOOKS LIKE MONDAY EVENING AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO THE
MIDWEST AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET IS OVERHEAD.
IT WOULD BE RIGHT ALONG THE SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH AND 850MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE.
DUE TO THE SLOWER SYSTEM... WINDS SHOULD STAY SOUTH LONGER IN
SOUTHEAST WI AND ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE 00Z ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION CAME IN WITH A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. IT CLOSES OFF THE 500MB LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST TUE NIGHT AND HAS IT MEANDER EAST THROUGH
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. THE GFS ALSO CLOSES OFF THE UPPER LOW...BUT NOT AS QUICKLY.
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LEAN TOWARD THIS CUTOFF LOW SOLUTION AS WELL.
THEREFORE... WE LEANED TOWARD THE LATEST ECMWF TO GENERATE POPS IN
SOUTHERN WI AND THE REGION. AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES... WE OPTED TO ADD SMALL CHANCE POPS TO THE FORECAST FOR TUE
NIGHT THROUGH WED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UPPER LOW HANGING AROUND THE
AREA LONGER. WE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS WELL. IT IS POSSIBLE THE
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT RAIN WOULD LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST WI
THROUGH THU.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR BULK OF THIS TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT MVFR CLOUDS TO
AFFECT KMKE/KENW TAFS THIS MRNG AS INDICATED BY BOTH RAP SOUNDINGS
AND HRRR. NOT SEEING MUCH LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER LAKE MI BUT
CIRRUS OBSCURING LOWER LEVELS. WL KEEP AN EYE ON 11-3.9 MICRON
PRODUCT BUT FOR NOW WL CONTINUE VFR CONDITIONS THIS MRNG.
MARINE...BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WINDS TURNING
MORE TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND WEAK SURGE OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION. WINDS BRIEFLY GUSTED TO 25KTS AT SGNW3 AROUND 06Z BUT
HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED TO BLO 20KTS. CARGO VESSEL JOSEPH BLOCK
LOCATED ABOUT 15NM EAST OF MKE ONLY REPORTING 11KT WINDS. EXPC
BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH ALONG NEARSHORE
WATERS EARLY THIS MRNG...HOWEVER WINDS WL SETTLE BACK DOWN TO 5 TO
15 KTS FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVY PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
540 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2014
09Z SFC CHART DEPICTS 1028MB SFC HI OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE SIMON. IN BETWEEN WINDS HAVE SHIFTED FROM THE NE LAST
EVENING TO SE THIS MORNING. THIS IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR STRATUS
ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS AND FOG WHERE THIS CLOUD DECK INTERCEPTS THE
HIER TERRAIN. THATS WHAT IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
500-1500 FT CEILINGS OVR THE ERN PLAINS AND AREAS OF FOG OVR THE
INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT. PROGD SOUNDINGS AND LATEST HRRR DATA SHOW THIS
AREA OF CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON AT LEAST THRU EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THE FOG SHOULD LIFT OVER THE SUMMIT BEFORE THAT TIME. RAIN
FROM SIMON HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP THIS FAR NORTH AND EXPECT LITTLE
IF ANY ADDL PRECIP THRU THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH DID LEAVE SOME LOW
CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT ERN FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING
SHOULD A WEAK SHOWER OR POCKET OF DRIZZLE DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
HOWEVER FOR THAT TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COOL DAY AHEAD WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 50S AT MOST LOCALES. A FEW LOW 60S WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND AREAS THAT WILL CLEAR
OUT FIRST ACROSS NRN AND WRN ZONES.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROF
WHICH WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY OVERALL SHOULD BE
NICE AS PRESSURES FALL IN THE LEE. ADIABATIC DOWNSLOPE WARMING
SHOULD AID IN BOOSTING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE 60S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...WITH 70S OVR
THE ERN PLAINS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING...THOUGH THE STRONGEST WILL BE NR ARLINGTON WHERE
GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. BOTH THE NAM/GFS ALSO PAINT A
SMALL RIBBON OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE PRESSURE TROF...EVEN
DEVELOPING AN UPDRAFT OVR ERN LARAMIE....KIMBALL AND CHEYENNE
COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
OTHERWISE...MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
FRONT...NOW NOT UNTIL AROUND 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING FOR EAST-CENTRAL
WYOMING AND 9 AM TO REACH THE WY/CO STATELINE. PRECIP WILL LAG THE
SFC FRONT BY 50-75 MILES DEVELOPING IN AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. AS SUCH PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH INTO EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING AND THE NRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BETWEEN 6-9 AM AND THRU THE
REST OF THE AREA BY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO
AROUND 7500 FEET FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
ELEVATIONS ABOVE THIS AREA MAY SEE A QUICK FEW INCHES OF SNOW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE SYSTEM DO NOT ANTICIPATE
IT TO NECESSITATE A WINTER HIGHLIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY....WITH DRYING CONDITIONS SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE 20 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S WEST AND 50S EAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE RATHER QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON MON. 700MB
TEMPS ARE STILL COOL AT AROUND -1C AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN ACROSS THE PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING.
TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN MON.
SOUTHWESTERLY LLVL WINDS STRENGTHEN ON WED AS A LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER
IDAHO. IT WILL BE WINDY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WED WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST
DAY WITH 700MB TEMPS OF 6-10C. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON
THURS REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES OVER
WY. THE GFS IS DEEPER AND WOULD RESULT IN A BIGGER COOLDOWN ALONG WITH
STRONGER POST FRONTAL WESTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY. THE ECMWF ON
THE OTHER HAND LIFTS THE TROUGH OVER MT WITH LESS COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND WEAKER WINDS. BOTH SOLNS ARE DRY BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2014
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD EVENT ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING UNDER PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS.
EXPECT IFR CIGS AT CYS...BFF...AND SNY THROUGH 16-18Z. CLEARING
WILL BEGIN BY MIDDAY AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE CLEARED OUT BY MID
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE WEAK AND BELOW 15KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2014
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL AGAIN BE MINIMAL TODAY AS COOL
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS LIMIT ANY ATMOSPHERIC DRYING.
SATURDAY WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY SOMEWHAT HEIGHTEN DAY OF FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND 70S...WHILE
HUMIDITIES FALL TO CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT. WINDS WILL ALSO TURN BREEZY
TURNING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING LOCATIONS AS WELL.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE DISTRICTS SUNDAY MORNING
PRODUCING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
413 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2014
09Z SFC CHART DEPICTS 1028MB SFC HI OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE SIMON. IN BETWEEN WINDS HAVE SHIFTED FROM THE NE LAST
EVENING TO SE THIS MORNING. THIS IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR STRATUS
ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS AND FOG WHERE THIS CLOUD DECK INTERCEPTS THE
HIER TERRAIN. THATS WHAT IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
500-1500 FT CEILINGS OVR THE ERN PLAINS AND AREAS OF FOG OVR THE
INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT. PROGD SOUNDINGS AND LATEST HRRR DATA SHOW THIS
AREA OF CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON AT LEAST THRU EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THE FOG SHOULD LIFT OVER THE SUMMIT BEFORE THAT TIME. RAIN
FROM SIMON HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP THIS FAR NORTH AND EXPECT LITTLE
IF ANY ADDL PRECIP THRU THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH DID LEAVE SOME LOW
CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT ERN FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING
SHOULD A WEAK SHOWER OR POCKET OF DRIZZLE DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
HOWEVER FOR THAT TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COOL DAY AHEAD WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 50S AT MOST LOCALES. A FEW LOW 60S WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND AREAS THAT WILL CLEAR
OUT FIRST ACROSS NRN AND WRN ZONES.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROF
WHICH WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY OVERALL SHOULD BE
NICE AS PRESSURES FALL IN THE LEE. ADIABATIC DOWNSLOPE WARMING
SHOULD AID IN BOOSTING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE 60S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...WITH 70S OVR
THE ERN PLAINS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING...THOUGH THE STRONGEST WILL BE NR ARLINGTON WHERE
GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. BOTH THE NAM/GFS ALSO PAINT A
SMALL RIBBON OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE PRESSURE TROF...EVEN
DEVELOPING AN UPDRAFT OVR ERN LARAMIE....KIMBALL AND CHEYENNE
COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
OTHERWISE...MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
FRONT...NOW NOT UNTIL AROUND 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING FOR EAST-CENTRAL
WYOMING AND 9 AM TO REACH THE WY/CO STATELINE. PRECIP WILL LAG THE
SFC FRONT BY 50-75 MILES DEVELOPING IN AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. AS SUCH PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH INTO EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING AND THE NRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BETWEEN 6-9 AM AND THRU THE
REST OF THE AREA BY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO
AROUND 7500 FEET FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
ELEVATIONS ABOVE THIS AREA MAY SEE A QUICK FEW INCHES OF SNOW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE SYSTEM DO NOT ANTICIPATE
IT TO NECESSITATE A WINTER HIGHLIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY....WITH DRYING CONDITIONS SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE 20 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S WEST AND 50S EAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE RATHER QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON MON. 700MB
TEMPS ARE STILL COOL AT AROUND -1C AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN ACROSS THE PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING.
TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN MON.
SOUTHWESTERLY LLVL WINDS STRENGTHEN ON WED AS A LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER
IDAHO. IT WILL BE WINDY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WED WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST
DAY WITH 700MB TEMPS OF 6-10C. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON
THURS REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES OVER
WY. THE GFS IS DEEPER AND WOULD RESULT IN A BIGGER COOLDOWN ALONG WITH
STRONGER POST FRONTAL WESTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY. THE ECMWF ON
THE OTHER HAND LIFTS THE TROUGH OVER MT WITH LESS COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND WEAKER WINDS. BOTH SOLNS ARE DRY BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM MDT THU OCT 9 2014
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SITES IN MVFR CIGS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF CYS AND SNY...WHICH HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING IFR CONDITIONS. COULD EVEN BE SOME PATCHY FOG AT CYS IN THE
HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. THE STRATUS WILL BE QUITE PERSISTENT
THROUGH THE MORNING...ONLY BEGINNING TO CLEAR AFTER AROUND 16Z.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...GENERALLY LESS THAN
15 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2014
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL AGAIN BE MINIMAL TODAY AS COOL
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS LIMIT ANY ATMOSPHERIC DRYING.
SATURDAY WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY SOMEWHAT HEIGHTEN DAY OF FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND 70S...WHILE
HUMIDITIES FALL TO CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT. WINDS WILL ALSO TURN BREEZY
TURNING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING LOCATIONS AS WELL.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE DISTRICTS SUNDAY MORNING
PRODUCING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
112 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST AT ALL SOUTH
FLORIDA TERMINALS. THERE MAY BE A STRAY SHRA OVER THE ATLANTIC
THAT MOVES ONSHORE BUT THESE WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND TOO ISOLATED
TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. A LIGHT-MODERATE ENE
WIND IS ANTICIPATED AT ALL SITES.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014/
UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC ARE MOVING ONSHORE THE
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY COAST THIS MORNING. HRRR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS
IMPACTING THE SE FLORIDA COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO HAVE PLACED
A 20 POP IN FOR THE EAST COAST METRO TODAY...AND ADDED JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LATE DAY SHOWER FOR THE GULF COAST. NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. /GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014/
AVIATION...
A MOSTLY DRY AND VFR FORECAST WILL PREVAIL. A CONVERGENT BAND OF
SHRA IS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND COULD BRIEFLY AFFECT THE
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY TERMINALS THROUGH 14Z BUT MOSTLY DISSIPATING AS
THEY MOVE ONSHORE SO ONLY PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. A
MODERATE ENE WIND FLOW IS ANTICIPATED WITH SPEEDS OF 12-14KT ALONG
THE EAST COAST AND 10-12KT AT KAPF.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014/
DRIER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK...
SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN DRIER AIR TO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR THE ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TO
DISSIPATE TOWARDS SUNRISE TODAY. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER FOR TODAY
INTO TONIGHT WILL BE DRY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR THE WIND FLOW TO SLOWLY SWING TO A MORE
EASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
RETURN TO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER
WILL REMAIN DRY ON SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS OVER THE WEST COAST METRO
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW FOR THE
STEERING FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WORKING INTO THE AREA.
THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL BE ON AN INCREASE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AND SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
FLORIDA KEYS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
BEFORE SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS END OF NEXT
WEEK. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RANGE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING IN
COVERAGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE NORTHEAST TODAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
SLOWLY SWINGING TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS TODAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 5 FEET OR LESS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND 3 FEET OR LESS IN THE GULF WATERS.
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
324 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
323 PM CDT
SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE
SHORT TERM WILL FOCUS ON IMPACTS OF THE PERSISTENT NELY FLOW INTO
FAR NERN IL/IN AND THEN TRANSITION OVER TO TEMPERATURES AND FROST
CHANCES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE FOX
VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...THE PERSISTENT NELY FLOW OFF
OF THE LAKE HAS KEPT LAKEFRONT LOCATIONS ON THE COOLER SIDE...WITH
TEMPS MAXING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 50S. COOLER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 50S WITH LAKE SFC TEMPERATURES AROUND 60F HAS SET UP A
WEAKLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDINESS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE. A WEAK CONVERGENCE
LINE HAS FORMED...POINTING INTO COOK COUNTY...JUST NORTH OF DOWNTOWN
CHICAGO. THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME
SPRINKLES ALONG THE LINE...BUT NO WETTING PCPN IS LIKELY AND THE
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS AND SPRINKLES SHOULD FADE WITH SUNSET.
FARTHER INLAND...UNDER A VEIL OF CI AND DIURNAL STRATOCU...
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MORE MODERATE AND TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...THE MAIN CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAM SHOULD SETTLE A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH...ALLOWING THE VEIL
OF CI TO ALSO MOVE SOUTH AS THE DIURNAL STRATOCU DISSIPATES WITH
SUNSET. WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST THROUGH MAINE...WINDS SHOULD DROP
OFF TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. RADIATIVE COOLING SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS
CURRENTLY UNDER THE CENTER OF THE HIGH ARE IN THE UPPER 20S...WHILE
DEWPOINTS OVER NORTHERN IL/NWRN INDIANA ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THERE SHOULD BE SOME MODIFICATION OF THE
AIRMASS...WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TO LOWER
30S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES RADIATE DOWN INTO THE 30S
AS WELL...AWAY FROM THE CHICAGO AREA URBAN HEAT ISLAND. THE LOWEST
TEMPS SHOULD BE WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR...SO WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP TO
32-35F. SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR...TEMPS SHOULD ONLY DROP INTO
THE UPPER 30S...WHILE THE CHICAGO URBAN HEAT ISLAND AREA ONLY DROPS
TO AROUND 40F...SO WIDESPREAD FROST WILL BE UNLIKELY IN THESE AREAS.
LONGER TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TOMORROW...A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN PLACE. AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH
INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
COOLER ALONG THE LAKE WHERE LAKE BREEZE FORMATION SHOULD TURN WINDS
ON SHORE...DRAWING IN THE COOLER LAKE AIR. TEMPS ALONG THE
LAKEFRONT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE 50S. SUNDAY IS
SHAPING UP TO BE A TRANSITORY DAY WITH THE HIGH MOVING TO THE NERN
CONUS WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A
WEAK WARM FRONT DEVELOPING FROM THE LOW...EAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTER AIR WILL OVERRUN THE WARM
FRONT...LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER...WITH THE CHANCES FOR
SOME SHOWERS SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
THE DAY. SINCE THE FORCING IS LIMITED TO THE LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY HEAVY PCPN...AND THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE SHOULD BE DURG THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY MONDAY...THE
MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON LIFT THE SFC LOW INTO
MISSOURI...WHILE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO NRN IL/IN. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SOME EVEN WARMER AIR TO SPREAD INTO THE SERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...WITH LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE ILLINOIS AND KANKAKEE
RIVERS REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F. PCPN CHANCES WILL ALSO
BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE SFC LOW APPROACHES THE AREA AND WARM
SECTOR AIR SPREADS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. THE SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO DEEPEN AND MOVE INTO CNTRL OR NRN IL AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW LAGS SLIGHTLY BEHIND...IN NRN MO. THIS IS SHAPING UP TO
BE A RATHER DYNAMIC SYSTEM AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN INCREASES IN
AMPLITUDE WITH RIDGING OVER THE WEST AND EAST COASTS AND A DEEP
TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVELY TILTED
ORIENTATION. INCREASE HEAT AND HUMIDITY...COMBINED WITH A SFC COLD
FRONT AND DEEP UPPER LOW SHOULD SET UP A PATTERN PRIMED FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...UNTIL THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PASSES TO THE EAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER
GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...THERE ARE TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON WHEN THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS ACROSS THE AREA AND
WHEN THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHOULD BE IN PLACE. THE NAM
IS A SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER OUTLIER AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS...WITH THE GFS A LITTLE SLOW AND THE GEM/ECMWF ABOUT
ANOTHER 6 HOURS SLOWER. HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS GIVEN THE VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WHICH WOULD NOT BE AS CONDUCIVE TO A FAST/PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION.
SO...WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AND INTO
MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT. PCPN SHOULD BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA...PARTICULARLY IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES WHICH
LINGERS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST...LONGER THEN THE SOME OF THE
OTHER GUIDANCE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CONCERN FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY IF THE COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA AT A DIURNALLY FAVORABLE TIME. ALSO...HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY BE A CONCERN AS MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
PWATS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ARE FORECAST TO REACH 1.5 INCHES...WHICH
IS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR PWATS IN MID OCTOBER. SO...IN
ADDITION TO THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DETERIORATES RAPIDLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE ECMWF...ON ONE EXTREME DEVELOPS A DEEP CUT OFF
UPPER LOW THAT MEANDERS AROUND THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
IL INTO THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. ON
THE FASTER EXTREME...THE GFS STEADILY LIFTS THE UPPER SYSTEM OUT OF
THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SERN CANADA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO STEADILY PROGRESS TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE NRN PLAINS. GIVEN THE EXTREMES IN
THE GUIDANCE...HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION AND
HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 10KT TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY.
DZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OVER THE DAKOTAS TO DOMINATE.
CENTER TO MOVE OVER SOUTHERN WI-NORTHERN IL BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.
VFR LOWER CLOUD DECK OVER LAND AND LAKE EFFECT MOVING INLAND OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE GRADUALLY AS HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER THICKENS. AS A RESULT..NE WIND TO DIMINISH SLOWLY THEN DROP
OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. WIND TO STAY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND
BECOME MORE EASTERLY.
DZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH.
DZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...CHANCE OF PM SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
* MONDAY...PERIODS OF RA. CHANCE OF TSRA. IFR LIKELY. SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
* TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
* THURSDAY...DRY/VFR.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
235 AM CDT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE DAKOTAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT OVER THE LAKE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO EASE SOME ACROSS
THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED UP IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
HIGHER WAVES UP AROUND 3 FT IN AND AROUND THE SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
NEAR SHORES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH 10
TO 20 KT BY SUNDAY. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE
LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF A STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO AIM ON THE GREAT LAKES REGION
LATER MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. THERE REMAINS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM...MAINLY
IN TERMS OF THE SPEED OF THE STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME THOUGH...IT
APPEARS THAT A PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE BY MONDAY EVENING...WITH WINDS POSSIBLY
OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES SOMEWHERE NEAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. UNCERTAINTY
REALLY INCREASES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE SURFACE LOW ACTUALLY REMAINING
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE WITH THE WIND FORECAST FROM
TUESDAY AND BEYOND IS MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME RANGE.
PERIODS OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM
SYSTEM...SO STAY TUNED.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FROST ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012-ILZ019...3 AM SATURDAY TO 8 AM SATURDAY.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
312 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
19z/2pm surface analysis shows stationary frontal boundary
extending from Oklahoma to Virginia. Numerous weak areas of low
pressure have been tracking along the boundary today, spreading
rain as far north as the I-70 corridor. Latest wave continues to
bring light rain to the southeast KILX CWA: however, radar mosaics
are showing the steady precipitation tapering off to scattered
showers upstream across Missouri. Based on radar timing tools,
have opted to carry just chance PoPs along/south of I-70 this
evening, as most concentrated area of showers will be well to the
east across southern Indiana/Ohio by 00z. Meanwhile, upper
short-wave noted on water vapor imagery over northern Minnesota
will continue to dive southeastward through the Great Lakes,
gradually giving the front a push southward. As a result, most
model guidance shifts the precip further south into the Ohio River
Valley overnight. Have therefore ended the PoPs across the SE
counties by midnight. While dry conditions are expected across the
board overnight, quite a bit of cloud cover will linger across the
southern half of the area. Even further north, latest visible
satellite imagery and forecast soundings suggest thick cirrus
clouds will persist through much of the evening before thinning
out later tonight. End result will be mostly cloudy skies through
the entire night across the central and southern zones, with
decreasing clouds across the north. Due to the clearing skies and
relatively light winds, low temperatures will settle into the
middle to upper 30s where skies clear, potentially leading to the
development of frost. Based on forecast hourly temps, have
included patchy frost along/north of a Canton to Chenoa line.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
High pressure building into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes will
provide pleasant fall conditions on Saturday, with a good deal of
sunshine, light winds, and afternoon high temperatures topping out
in the lower 60s. As the high slides off to the east, an
increasing S/SE return flow will begin to bring moisture back
northward Saturday night into Sunday. Due to the initially very
dry airmass, the moistening process will be slow. As a result,
have delayed the onset of precip chances to feature low chance
PoPs across only the far S/SE CWA after midnight Saturday night.
As a weak lead short-wave tracks through, scattered showers will
spread across the entire region on Sunday, although actual
rainfall amounts will remain quite light. Due to the increased
cloud cover and light showers, temperatures will remain a bit
cooler in the upper 50s across most areas.
Big changes begin to take place Sunday night as powerful 130kt 300mb
jet streak currently approaching the coast of Washington dives
southeastward and carves a significant trough over the central
CONUS. Surface cyclogenesis is expected to occur across the
Texas/Oklahoma panhandle Sunday evening, with the low deepening as
it tracks northeastward toward the southern Great Lakes by late
Monday. The exact speed/track of the low remains in question, as
the latest NAM has sped up the overall evolution. Disregarding
this seemingly fast outlier in an amplifying upper pattern, the
GFS/ECMWF consensus takes the low from the Texas panhandle Sunday
evening to west-central Illinois by Monday evening. Copious
amounts of Gulf moisture will stream northward ahead of this
system, with all models showing precipitable water values climbing
to around 1.50 on Monday, which is climatologically in the 99th
percentile for this time of year. Main disagreement is with the
degree of destabilization Monday afternoon/evening, with the NAM
being more bullish with its surface based CAPEs. Even following
the more conservative GFS, think enough instability will be
present within a highly sheared environment to produce strong to
potentially severe thunderstorms across part of the area late
Monday. Based on expected track of low, the E/SE CWA will be most
likely to break into the warm sector of the system and achieve
maximum destabilization. Will need to monitor future model runs
and convective outlooks from SPC to better assess the potential
severe weather threat. In any case, the high moisture content of
the atmosphere combined with strong upper dynamics will create
widespread showers/storms Monday into Monday evening. Best forcing
for storms will shift into Indiana overnight, leading to a
decrease in rain chances Monday night.
Still major discrepancies in the extended, as ECMWF insists on
cutting off an upper low over the Midwest Tuesday through
Thursday, while the GFS remains much more progressive. With
neither model deviating from its prior solution and no reasonable
consensus in sight, forecast confidence remains low next week. At
this time will maintain low chance PoPs for showers through
Tuesday night, but will go with a dry forecast Wednesday and
Thursday. This may need to be changed if upper wave amplifies
sufficiently over the Plains early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
North edge of rain shield inching closer to KDEC/KCMI, but dry
northeast winds making any progress tough. Have maintained VCSH at
these sites for the next few hours, with the HRRR showing
diminishing rain chances after 22Z. Cloud bases remain high north
of the rain, and VFR conditions expected to prevail at all TAF
sites. Substantial clearing should start taking place from north
to south late tonight, as high pressure builds toward the Great
Lakes.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
125 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
404 AM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION
LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY OF PERHAPS IN EXCESS OF
AN INCH OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FROM 00Z DEPICTS A SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AROUND THE BASE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CANADA. SEVERAL SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES WERE
NOTED FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WHERE
THE SPLIT UPPER FLOW CONVERGES...WITH PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO
DOWNSTATE AREAS SOUTH OF THE CWA AND JUST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. FARTHER
NORTH...A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WAS SUPPLYING DRY AND COOL WEATHER TO OUR
FORECAST AREA. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST SLOWLY
MOVES AWAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN COOL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER GUIDANCE FAVORED
(NAM MET TODAY AND SATURDAY...GFS MAV TONIGHT). THIS YIELDS DAYTIME
TEMPS FROM THE MID-50S NEAR THE LAKE TO THE UPPER 50S FARTHER
INLAND. OVERNIGHT MINS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID
30S NORTH AWAY FROM THE CITY...TO AROUND 40 SOUTH. LESS HIGH CLOUD
EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FROST LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IL AWAY FROM THE CORE OF THE CHICAGO
METRO AREA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA LATER IN THE
WEEKEND AS 150 KT UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC BUCKLES.
WITH AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE TAKING SHAPE...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLOWER
AND THUS HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH RESPECT TO SLOWING ARRIVAL OF CLOUD
COVER AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES. MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK
LEAD SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LONG WAVE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH GENERALLY WEAK FORCING AND DRY
EAST-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL
LARGELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONGER
MERIDIONAL FLOW EVENTUALLY PULLS DEEP MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE DEVELOPING LONG WAVE MONDAY...WITH MORE IMPRESSIVE FORCING
DEVELOPING WITH STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
WHICH LIFTS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY EVENING. FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS DEPICTED WITH PWATS INCREASING ABOVE 1.50
INCHES BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH INDICATIONS OF AN AXIS OF UP TO 1
INCH RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WITH CONVECTIVELY-AIDED
RAINS IN WARM SECTOR...AS WELL AS A 1-3 INCH AXIS OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI AND NORTHWEST IL WITH DEFORMATION BAND
RAIN.
WHILE EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE
TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK...THE 00Z ECMWF
AGGRESSIVELY CLOSES OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA TUESDAY...AND
KEEPS IT OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE IT FINALLY DRIFTS
OFF TO THE EAST. THE CANADIAN GEM...AND A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
THE GEFS SIMILARLY CLOSE OFF THIS SYSTEM AND SLOW IT DOWN...THOUGH
NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF. SINCE THIS APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT
REASONABLE TREND GIVEN THE BUILDING RIDGE DOWNSTREAM...HAVE KEPT
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY.
WITH SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO COME RIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN IL AT THIS
POINT...FAIRLY LARGE TEMP CONTRAST FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS
AROUND 60 NORTHWEST AND APPROACHING 70 IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. OTHER
THAN COOLER TEMPS (50S-AROUND 60) IN CLOUDS/SHOWERS BENEATH UPPER
LOW TUESDAY...NOT MUCH OF A COLD AIR SURGE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 10KT TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY.
DZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OVER THE DAKOTAS TO DOMINATE.
CENTER TO MOVE OVER SOUTHERN WI-NORTHERN IL BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.
VFR LOWER CLOUD DECK OVER LAND AND LAKE EFFECT MOVING INLAND OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE GRADUALLY AS HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER THICKENS. AS A RESULT..NE WIND TO DIMINISH SLOWLY THEN DROP
OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. WIND TO STAY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND
BECOME MORE EASTERLY.
DZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH.
DZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...CHANCE OF PM SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
* MONDAY...PERIODS OF RA. CHANCE OF TSRA. IFR LIKELY. SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
* TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
* THURSDAY...DRY/VFR.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
235 AM CDT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE DAKOTAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT OVER THE LAKE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO EASE SOME ACROSS
THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED UP IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
HIGHER WAVES UP AROUND 3 FT IN AND AROUND THE SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
NEAR SHORES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH 10
TO 20 KT BY SUNDAY. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE
LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF A STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO AIM ON THE GREAT LAKES REGION
LATER MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. THERE REMAINS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM...MAINLY
IN TERMS OF THE SPEED OF THE STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME THOUGH...IT
APPEARS THAT A PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE BY MONDAY EVENING...WITH WINDS POSSIBLY
OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES SOMEWHERE NEAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. UNCERTAINTY
REALLY INCREASES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE SURFACE LOW ACTUALLY REMAINING
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE WITH THE WIND FORECAST FROM
TUESDAY AND BEYOND IS MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME RANGE.
PERIODS OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM
SYSTEM...SO STAY TUNED.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1225 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
Showers starting to increase again along and south of I-70 as the
next wing of precipitation spreads northeast from Missouri. Latest
HRRR continues to delineate a rather sharp northern edge of the
precipitation shield, as areas along and north of I-72 have quite a
bit of dry air present below 750 mb per our morning sounding and
forecast soundings from the RAP model. In fact, the northern parts
of the CWA are seeing some sunshine filtering through what is
mainly a cirrus layer in that area. While the far north is still
in the 40s, temperatures should rise quicker there with more
sunshine. Coolest conditions expected along the I-70 corridor with
mainly mid 50s. Only some minor adjustments needed to the existing
zones/grids. Only significant item of note was to remove the
thunder in the far southeast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
Forecast challenge through today remains the northern extent of the
precip shield, currently extending from near Springfield east towards
Champaign. For the most part, the steadier rains have been occurring
further south closer to a stalled frontal boundary over northern
Arkansas east through central Kentucky. This boundary may edge a bit
further north as shortwave energy, currently over the Southern
Plains, shifts thru the Ohio River Valley later today. Some of the
short term models suggest a slight northward push to the rain shield
as this upper wave shifts to our south later this morning into this
afternoon. However, not seeing enough evidence off models to adjust
much further north than what we have been advertising for the past
day or so, mainly along and south of Jacksonville to Springfield to
Champaign line. PoPs will progressively increase as you head south
towards the I-70 corridor through this afternoon, while north towards
I74, little if any rain is expected thru tonight.
Forecast soundings continue to show an increase in drying at the mid
levels of the atmosphere from north to south as the day wears on so
we will probably see warmer temps over parts of the north, with
readings approaching 60 degrees in a few locations. Further south,
where the thicker cloud cover and precip will be, afternoon highs
may struggle to get out of the middle 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
Have chances of showers gradually lowering over southeast IL during
tonight and Saturday as frontal boundary shifts southward into AR
and TN, and 1028 mb Canadian high pressure over eastern ND settles SE
across the Midwest and into the western Great Lakes region. Clouds
decrease over northern counties and expect lows in the mid to upper
30s NW of the IL river with patchy frost late tonight, more
widespread frost further NW toward IA border closer to high pressure
ridge and lighter winds. Lows 40-45F SE of the IL river. Cool highs
in the upper 50s and lower 60s Saturday with more sunshine northern
counties. Just a slight chance of showers over southeast IL south of
I-70 where more clouds prevail.
00Z forecast models have trended slower with returning moisture into
central IL Sat night and Sunday as frontal boundary south of IL
begins lifting back north. Have central IL dry yet Sat evening with
20-30% pops in southeast IL. Then have low chances of showers
spreading NE across central IL during overnight Sat night into
Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms mainly stay SE of CWA through Sunday.
Highs Sunday in upper 50s and lower 60s over central IL and low to
mid 60s in southeast IL. Better chances of showers arriving Sunday
night with isolated thunderstorms in southeast IL as short waves
from the SW beginning moving into IL and interacting with increasing
moisture from the gulf.
Extended models continue to show a strong full latitude upper level
trof moving east into the MS river valley by 12Z Tue and developing
a cutoff low near IL by middle of next week. Strong surface low
pressure to eject NE from the southern plains into the Great Lakes
region early next week and bring showers and chance of thunderstorms
Mon-Mon night. Heavy rains likely over eastern/SE IL where 1-2
inches with locally higher amounts near the Wabash river. Also
severe thunderstorms could also be an increasing risk over southeast
IL Monday afternoon/evening. Continue chances of showers Tue and
added 20-30% chances of showers Tue night and Wed as models
(especially the ECMWF) show cutoff low near IL keeping it cloudier
and cooler.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
North edge of rain shield inching closer to KDEC/KCMI, but dry
northeast winds making any progress tough. Have maintained VCSH at
these sites for the next few hours, with the HRRR showing
diminishing rain chances after 22Z. Cloud bases remain high north
of the rain, and VFR conditions expected to prevail at all TAF
sites. Substantial clearing should start taking place from north
to south late tonight, as high pressure builds toward the Great
Lakes.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1108 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
404 AM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION
LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY OF PERHAPS IN EXCESS OF
AN INCH OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FROM 00Z DEPICTS A SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AROUND THE BASE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CANADA. SEVERAL SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES WERE
NOTED FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WHERE
THE SPLIT UPPER FLOW CONVERGES...WITH PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO
DOWNSTATE AREAS SOUTH OF THE CWA AND JUST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. FARTHER
NORTH...A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WAS SUPPLYING DRY AND COOL WEATHER TO OUR
FORECAST AREA. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST SLOWLY
MOVES AWAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN COOL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER GUIDANCE FAVORED
(NAM MET TODAY AND SATURDAY...GFS MAV TONIGHT). THIS YIELDS DAYTIME
TEMPS FROM THE MID-50S NEAR THE LAKE TO THE UPPER 50S FARTHER
INLAND. OVERNIGHT MINS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID
30S NORTH AWAY FROM THE CITY...TO AROUND 40 SOUTH. LESS HIGH CLOUD
EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FROST LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IL AWAY FROM THE CORE OF THE CHICAGO
METRO AREA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA LATER IN THE
WEEKEND AS 150 KT UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC BUCKLES.
WITH AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE TAKING SHAPE...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLOWER
AND THUS HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH RESPECT TO SLOWING ARRIVAL OF CLOUD
COVER AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES. MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK
LEAD SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LONG WAVE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH GENERALLY WEAK FORCING AND DRY
EAST-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL
LARGELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONGER
MERIDIONAL FLOW EVENTUALLY PULLS DEEP MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE DEVELOPING LONG WAVE MONDAY...WITH MORE IMPRESSIVE FORCING
DEVELOPING WITH STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
WHICH LIFTS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY EVENING. FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS DEPICTED WITH PWATS INCREASING ABOVE 1.50
INCHES BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH INDICATIONS OF AN AXIS OF UP TO 1
INCH RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WITH CONVECTIVELY-AIDED
RAINS IN WARM SECTOR...AS WELL AS A 1-3 INCH AXIS OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI AND NORTHWEST IL WITH DEFORMATION BAND
RAIN.
WHILE EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE
TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK...THE 00Z ECMWF
AGGRESSIVELY CLOSES OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA TUESDAY...AND
KEEPS IT OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE IT FINALLY DRIFTS
OFF TO THE EAST. THE CANADIAN GEM...AND A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
THE GEFS SIMILARLY CLOSE OFF THIS SYSTEM AND SLOW IT DOWN...THOUGH
NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF. SINCE THIS APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT
REASONABLE TREND GIVEN THE BUILDING RIDGE DOWNSTREAM...HAVE KEPT
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY.
WITH SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO COME RIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN IL AT THIS
POINT...FAIRLY LARGE TEMP CONTRAST FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS
AROUND 60 NORTHWEST AND APPROACHING 70 IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. OTHER
THAN COOLER TEMPS (50S-AROUND 60) IN CLOUDS/SHOWERS BENEATH UPPER
LOW TUESDAY...NOT MUCH OF A COLD AIR SURGE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 10KT TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY.
DZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS TO BUILD EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH TODAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE
TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME PREVAILING NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES A FEW NARROW PLUMES OF LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS THAT EXTEND TO SHORELINE OF CHICAGO. SATELLITE ALSO
INDICATES THIN CIRRUS DECK OVERHEAD WILL THICKEN. WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE EXPECT ANY CEILINGS TO BE VERY LIMITED
IN COVERAGE. THE RESULTING LACK OF MIXING SHOULD ALSO LIMIT WIND
SPEEDS OFF THE LAKE. TREND IS FOR WINDS TO ABATE CLOSER TO SUNSET.
DZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH.
DZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...CHANCE OF PM SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
* MONDAY...PERIODS OF RA. CHANCE OF TSRA. IFR LIKELY. SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
* TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
* THURSDAY...DRY/VFR.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
235 AM CDT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE DAKOTAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT OVER THE LAKE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO EASE SOME ACROSS
THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED UP IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
HIGHER WAVES UP AROUND 3 FT IN AND AROUND THE SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
NEAR SHORES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH 10
TO 20 KT BY SUNDAY. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE
LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF A STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO AIM ON THE GREAT LAKES REGION
LATER MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. THERE REMAINS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM...MAINLY
IN TERMS OF THE SPEED OF THE STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME THOUGH...IT
APPEARS THAT A PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE BY MONDAY EVENING...WITH WINDS POSSIBLY
OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES SOMEWHERE NEAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. UNCERTAINTY
REALLY INCREASES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE SURFACE LOW ACTUALLY REMAINING
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE WITH THE WIND FORECAST FROM
TUESDAY AND BEYOND IS MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME RANGE.
PERIODS OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM
SYSTEM...SO STAY TUNED.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
947 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
Showers starting to increase again along and south of I-70 as the
next wing of precipitation spreads northeast from Missouri. Latest
HRRR continues to delineate a rather sharp northern edge of the
precipitation shield, as areas along and north of I-72 have quite a
bit of dry air present below 750 mb per our morning sounding and
forecast soundings from the RAP model. In fact, the northern parts
of the CWA are seeing some sunshine filtering through what is
mainly a cirrus layer in that area. While the far north is still
in the 40s, temperatures should rise quicker there with more
sunshine. Coolest conditions expected along the I-70 corridor with
mainly mid 50s. Only some minor adjustments needed to the existing
zones/grids. Only significant item of note was to remove the
thunder in the far southeast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
Forecast challenge through today remains the northern extent of the
precip shield, currently extending from near Springfield east towards
Champaign. For the most part, the steadier rains have been occurring
further south closer to a stalled frontal boundary over northern
Arkansas east through central Kentucky. This boundary may edge a bit
further north as shortwave energy, currently over the Southern
Plains, shifts thru the Ohio River Valley later today. Some of the
short term models suggest a slight northward push to the rain shield
as this upper wave shifts to our south later this morning into this
afternoon. However, not seeing enough evidence off models to adjust
much further north than what we have been advertising for the past
day or so, mainly along and south of Jacksonville to Springfield to
Champaign line. PoPs will progressively increase as you head south
towards the I-70 corridor through this afternoon, while north towards
I74, little if any rain is expected thru tonight.
Forecast soundings continue to show an increase in drying at the mid
levels of the atmosphere from north to south as the day wears on so
we will probably see warmer temps over parts of the north, with
readings approaching 60 degrees in a few locations. Further south,
where the thicker cloud cover and precip will be, afternoon highs
may struggle to get out of the middle 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
Have chances of showers gradually lowering over southeast IL during
tonight and Saturday as frontal boundary shifts southward into AR
and TN, and 1028 mb Canadian high pressure over eastern ND settles SE
across the Midwest and into the western Great Lakes region. Clouds
decrease over northern counties and expect lows in the mid to upper
30s NW of the IL river with patchy frost late tonight, more
widespread frost further NW toward IA border closer to high pressure
ridge and lighter winds. Lows 40-45F SE of the IL river. Cool highs
in the upper 50s and lower 60s Saturday with more sunshine northern
counties. Just a slight chance of showers over southeast IL south of
I-70 where more clouds prevail.
00Z forecast models have trended slower with returning moisture into
central IL Sat night and Sunday as frontal boundary south of IL
begins lifting back north. Have central IL dry yet Sat evening with
20-30% pops in southeast IL. Then have low chances of showers
spreading NE across central IL during overnight Sat night into
Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms mainly stay SE of CWA through Sunday.
Highs Sunday in upper 50s and lower 60s over central IL and low to
mid 60s in southeast IL. Better chances of showers arriving Sunday
night with isolated thunderstorms in southeast IL as short waves
from the SW beginning moving into IL and interacting with increasing
moisture from the gulf.
Extended models continue to show a strong full latitude upper level
trof moving east into the MS river valley by 12Z Tue and developing
a cutoff low near IL by middle of next week. Strong surface low
pressure to eject NE from the southern plains into the Great Lakes
region early next week and bring showers and chance of thunderstorms
Mon-Mon night. Heavy rains likely over eastern/SE IL where 1-2
inches with locally higher amounts near the Wabash river. Also
severe thunderstorms could also be an increasing risk over southeast
IL Monday afternoon/evening. Continue chances of showers Tue and
added 20-30% chances of showers Tue night and Wed as models
(especially the ECMWF) show cutoff low near IL keeping it cloudier
and cooler.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
VFR conditions are expected thru this forecast period. Band of
showers mainly south of I-72 early this morning and expecting
the measurable rainfall to occur even further south today.
Our northern TAF locations (KPIA, KBMI) will remain dry while
our southern TAF sites, other than some very light showers or
sprinkles early this morning and again after 19z, will remain dry.
The threat for rain will shift well south of the TAF sites after
23z as high pressure settles southeast into the region tonight.
Surface winds will remain out of the northeast at 10 to 15 kts
today, and then diminish to 5 to 10 kts tonight from the northeast.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1257 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
Upper shortwave trough axis this morning was centered over
northern New Mexico. An embedded shortwave trough and residual
moisture associated with this system has contributed to scattered
showers and thunderstorms earlier this evening. Another round of
light to moderate showers continues to build east over central and
western Kansas at this hour as dynamic lift increases over western
KS. Ongoing heaviest convection is progged to remain near the warm
front across western OK towards the KS and OK border through
today.
Across northeast KS this morning, short term guidance follows radar
trends in spreading light to moderate showers into the region within
the next few hours. Based on the track of the upper trough, highest
probabilities for heavier rain showers through late afternoon
reside near the Interstate 70 corridor and points southward. Rainfall
amounts today for this area range from a tenth to just over an inch.
Locally higher amounts are possible. Latest RAP analysis shows very
weak mid level instability across these locations where isolated
embedded thunder is possible. Further north over north central KS,
less than a tenth of an inch is expected as dry air associated with
a surface high over South Dakota gradually invades south. This dry and
stable air will dissipate showers from north to south through the
afternoon effectively coming to an end this evening.
Overcast cloud cover lingers during the afternoon with clearing
occurring over north central areas by early evening. Highs reflect
where heavier showers and denser stratus are expected with readings
in the lower 50s. Scattered to broken cloud cover over east central
KS this evening will hold lows into the 40s. Light winds and clear
skies for north central areas could drop lows to the mid and upper
30s. Patchy frost may be possible in low lying areas where cooler
temps exist.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
For Saturday, models are in reasonable agreement that the mid level
energy will shear out and move east while dry air builds in from the
north. With this in mind, have removed the small POPs across east
central and far eastern KS. Am not all that excited about precip
chances for Saturday night either as models so the better synoptic
forcing remaining west. However there are signs of some low level
moisture return with the low level jet Saturday night. At this point
models forecast soundings do not indicate much if any vertical
motion with the low level jet focused mainly across MO. And there
really isn`t any elevated instability to speak of. Therefore
continued with a dry forecast, but may need to watch later model
runs for maybe some light precip if the low level jet ends up a
little further west. Clouds are most likely to hang in across east
central KS during the day Saturday while northern KS sees mostly
sunny skies. Think this cloud cover over east central KS may keep
afternoon highs in the mid 50s while sunshine helps warm temps to
around 60 elsewhere. Lows Saturday night should be a little warmer
with increasing cloud cover and a southerly wind.
Precip continues to look likely by Sunday afternoon through Monday
morning. Again there is good agreement among the various model
solutions for an amplifying mid level trough to move across the
plains with cyclogenesis developing over OK. Increasing moisture
ahead of this wave along with increasing PVA and lift from a frontal
boundary should lead to another round of showers and thunderstorms.
While there is not a great deal of instability with this system,
model forecast soundings do show mid level lapse rates steepening
Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Because of this will include a
mention of thunder. Model timing suggests precip will be most likely
Sunday night as the front moves through. With models in good
agreement, have trended POPs across east central KS up to 80
percent. Precip chances should gradually diminish through the day
Monday from west to east as the system progresses east. Highs Sunday
should be a little warmer due to low level warm air advection.
However did not go quite as warm as the warm air advection or MOS
guidance would suggest thinking increasing clouds could inhibit the
warming trend. Also Mondays highs are forecast to be in the lower
and mid 60s. However if the precip and clouds clear out sooner in
the day, there does not appear to be much cold air with this system
and temps could be 5 degrees or so warmer.
Have kept a dry dry forecast for Monday night through Thursday with
a warming trend in temps. There seems to be considerably more
uncertainty in the synoptic patter for next week and run to run
inconsistencies from the ECMWF do not help much. At this point, any
cutoff mid level low is expected to remain east of the forecast
area. If there is no cutoff, then the stronger shortwave depicted in
the GFS looks to stay just to the north of the forecast area on
Thursday. Therefore it appears dry weather is a more likely outcome
and with no intrusions of cold air, temps should warm back into the
70s by Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
Expect VFR conditions with periods of rain showers through the
afternoon hours. Late tonight the cloud cover will begin to clear.
Saturday afternoon, a few CU may form during the afternoon hours
with bases above 3,000 feet.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Gargan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
642 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
UPDATED TO REMOVE THUNDER AS BETTER INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF
OUR AREA. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL THROUGH TOMORROW GIVEN
INSTABILITY IS BOTTLED UP SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUS...PLAN
TO REMOVE ANY THUNDER CHANCES TOMORROW AS WELL. MEANWHILE...FOG HAS
DEVELOPED QUICKLY ON THE RIDGES THIS EVENING AND HAS BECOME LOCALLY
DENSE. PLAN TO ADD FOG INTO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND INCLUDE IT IN
THE HWO AS IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DENSE IN PLACES THROUGH DAYBREAK.
SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW DENSE THE FOG WILL END UP IN THE
VALLEYS...BUT IF THE FOG CONTINUES TO EXPAND...MAY NEED TO LOOK AT
THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY LATER ON. IN FACT... THE RAIN OUT
THERE NOW SHOULD BE MOVING ON THROUGH WITH A LULL EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AS THE BOUNDARY FINALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. THIS WOULD PUT
ALL OF THE AREA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DENSE FOG. UPDATED FORECAST TO REFINE THE POPS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT...FOCUSING THE BETTER POPS IN THE NORTH...WITH
LESSER POPS IN THE SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERN AREAS GET DRY SLOTTED.
FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LYING JUST NORTH OF
THE TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY BORDER. THIS FRONT IS SERVING AS FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF
THE STATE THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD CHANGE AS ANOTHER MID
LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND INDUCES A SFC WAVE TO MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING RENEWED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...JUST A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE FOUND THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME THINNING AND CLEAR PATCHES NOTED IN THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOP OVER EAST KENTUCKY AND THIS SHOULD HELP BUILD SOME
EXTRA INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
THE THICKEST CLOUDS AND BEING NORTH OF THE FRONT HAS KEPT READINGS
LOCKED IN THE UPPER 50S IN THE FAR NORTH WHILE SOME 70 DEGREE REPORTS
HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE FAR SOUTH. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE IN THE
LOW AND MID 60S SOUTH AND A BIT LOWER NORTH WHILE LIGHT WINDS ARE
FROM THE NORTHEAST NORTH OF JKL AND FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTH.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THEY
ALL DEPICT FAST AND NEAR ZONAL FLOW MOVING OVER KENTUCKY INTO WHICH
A SHEARING MID LEVEL WAVE WILL PERIODICALLY RELEASE ITS ENERGY. A
HEALTHY BATCH IS ON ITS WAY HERE FOR THIS EVENING AND IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER TENNESSEE THAT IS POISED
TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY EVENING. THE REMNANTS OF THE PLAINS
TROUGH FALLS APART OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THIS ALL
HAPPENS...PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
REGION OWING TO A STRONG 300 MB JET PASSING BY TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE
GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF
POSITIONS FOR THE FRONT...BUT FAVORED THE NAM12 QPF TOTALS...JUST
TRANSLATED A BIT SOUTH. ALSO INCORPORATED THE LATEST HRRR IN THE NEAR
TERM GRIDS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WET NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO KICK UP DURING THE EVENING AND FADE OUT
LATE IN THE NIGHT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE NEXT
WAVE MOVES OUT BY DAWN SATURDAY AS THE NEXT ONE STARTS TO HEAD THIS
WAY FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT TAKING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
TRACK. IT IS THESE TRACK SHIFTS THAT SHOULD SPARE ANY PARTICULAR PART
OF THE CWA A HIGHER FLOOD RISK DESPITE THE ROUNDS OF RAIN. HOWEVER...
SHOULD THE HEAVIER CELLS TRAIN OVER A SPOT LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE RAIN WILL ACCUMULATE ENOUGH THAT THE DITCHES AND CREEKS
WILL CERTAINLY BE FULL AT TIMES AND THE LARGER RIVERS WILL RESPOND
AND START TO FILL UP AS WELL. FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT THE
TRACK LOOKS TO FAVOR THE SOUTH AND LIKELY BE A LITTLE LESS ROBUST...
THOUGH EACH WAVE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...COULD HAVE PLACES THAT GET
HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADDRESSED IN AN
ESFJKL. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL WITH A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE.
ONCE AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT AGAIN FOR THE
T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 18-24 HOURS BEFORE GOING WITH THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID NOT SEE MANY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
TEMPERATURE IMPROVEMENTS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
WERE MADE TO THE MAX AND MIN T GRIDS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP MOST
SIMILAR TO THE WETTER MAV NUMBERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...BUT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ACTUAL PATTERN. HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT PLAINS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE FORMING A CUT OFF LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OR MIDWEST BY TUESDAY. FROM THERE FORWARD
THE 12Z GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE TAKING THIS LARGE SYSTEM INTO
THE NORTHEAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z CANADIAN APPEARS TO BE
COMPROMISE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE 0Z ECMWF...SLOWEST OF ALL THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS ROTATES THE LOW THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AT
A TURTLES PACE BEFORE LIFTING THE SYSTEM NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. NATIONAL GUIDANCE QUESTIONS HOW THE
ECMWF CAN KEEP THE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY FOR SO
LONG WITHOUT BETTER SUPPORT FROM THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THAT WOULD PRODUCE THE SPLIT FLOW NECESSARY FOR ITS SOLUTION...AND
IN GENERAL THEY ARE NOT SEEING THOSE TYPES OF SIGNALS. THEREFORE
WILL TEND TO STICK WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
AT THE SURFACE A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN
THE REGION LIFTING NORTH AND SOUTH WITH EACH PASSING SFC WAVE AND/OR
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OF OUR AREA LATE
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM STRENGTHENS TO OUR
WEST. THERE IS MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THEREAFTER BUT
CONSENSUS APPROACH SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE...COLD AIR MASS INSTABILITY TYPE SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE
MID WEEK TIME FRAME.
AS FAR AS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...STRONG LLJ MAY DEVELOP
OVER OUR AREA...AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS H850 WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 50 AND 70 KTS. THESE
STRONGER WINDS COULD MIX DOWN CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG
STORMS AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA EITHER
LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THIS THREAT WILL INCREASE SHOULD WE SEE
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SUNLIGHT MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS TOO MUCH
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS TO HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
OTHER DETAILS AT THIS POINT. STRONGER...GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT AS WELL...WHICH MAY BE REALIZED
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. ANOTHER HIGHLIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL
PWATS...TIMING OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WOULD PROVIDE
SOME DECENT BREAKS...RECOVERY TIME BETWEEN SUCCESSIVE BOUTS OF RAIN.
THOUGHTS ARE THAT TRAINING OF CELLS MAY CREATE A MUCH GREATER THREAT
OF HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER SATURATED GROUND. IN ADDITION...
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE SPREAD OUT OVER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.
THEREFORE FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GREAT A THREAT AS
IT MIGHT NORMALLY BE. HOWEVER SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LARGER CREEKS
AND STREAMS...AND EVENTUALLY AREA RIVERS...WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
LONG HAUL. ATTM THE CURRENT HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK HANDLES OUR CURRENT
SITUATION WELL.
IN GENERAL SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS QUITE UNSTABLE THROUGH TUESDAY...
BUT GRADUALLY IMPROVES AND DRIES OUT THEREAFTER WITH ONLY SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO DEAL WITH WED-THU. STUCK TO A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. WITH SUCH A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET AND FETCH OF
AIR INTO THE REGION MONDAY NUDGED TEMPS UP CLOSER TO THE WARMER GFS
GUIDANCE VERSUS THE BLEND. LOOKING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. SHOULD THE ECMWF EVENTUALLY TURN OUT TO BE THE BEST
SOLUTION...TUESDAY/S HIGH AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY NIGHTS LOW TEMPS
WOULD COME IN WARMER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
FOLLOWING THE CURRENT LULL...IN A FEW HOURS THE CONVECTION WILL AGAIN
BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA AND LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE EVENING.
DESPITE THE CURRENT LULL...A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT HAS RESULTED IN
LOW CIGS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. LATER...WITH THE MORE CONCENTRATED
AREAS OF PCPN...VIS WILL FALL TO IFR OR LOWER FOR A TIME. THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO LAST OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...
HOWEVER SOMETIME AFTER 04Z TONIGHT...EXPECT THE CIGS...THAT MANAGED
TO LIFT A BIT AS THE CONVECTION MOVES BACK IN...TO FALL BACK TO 500
FEET OR LOWER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE HILLTOPS OBSCURED IN
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY 5 TO
10 KTS WITH A SWITCH TO THE NORTH ANTICIPATED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
400 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LYING JUST NORTH OF
THE TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY BORDER. THIS FRONT IS SERVING AS FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF
THE STATE THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD CHANGE AS ANOTHER MID
LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND INDUCES A SFC WAVE TO MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING RENEWED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...JUST A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE FOUND THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME THINNING AND CLEAR PATCHES NOTED IN THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOP OVER EAST KENTUCKY AND THIS SHOULD HELP BUILD SOME
EXTRA INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
THE THICKEST CLOUDS AND BEING NORTH OF THE FRONT HAS KEPT READINGS
LOCKED IN THE UPPER 50S IN THE FAR NORTH WHILE SOME 70 DEGREE REPORTS
HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE FAR SOUTH. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE IN THE
LOW AND MID 60S SOUTH AND A BIT LOWER NORTH WHILE LIGHT WINDS ARE
FROM THE NORTHEAST NORTH OF JKL AND FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTH.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THEY
ALL DEPICT FAST AND NEAR ZONAL FLOW MOVING OVER KENTUCKY INTO WHICH
A SHEARING MID LEVEL WAVE WILL PERIODICALLY RELEASE ITS ENERGY. A
HEALTHY BATCH IS ON ITS WAY HERE FOR THIS EVENING AND IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER TENNESSEE THAT IS POISED
TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY EVENING. THE REMNANTS OF THE PLAINS
TROUGH FALLS APART OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THIS ALL
HAPPENS...PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
REGION OWING TO A STRONG 300 MB JET PASSING BY TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE
GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF
POSITIONS FOR THE FRONT...BUT FAVORED THE NAM12 QPF TOTALS...JUST
TRANSLATED A BIT SOUTH. ALSO INCORPORATED THE LATEST HRRR IN THE NEAR
TERM GRIDS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WET NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO KICK UP DURING THE EVENING AND FADE OUT
LATE IN THE NIGHT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE NEXT
WAVE MOVES OUT BY DAWN SATURDAY AS THE NEXT ONE STARTS TO HEAD THIS
WAY FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT TAKING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
TRACK. IT IS THESE TRACK SHIFTS THAT SHOULD SPARE ANY PARTICULAR PART
OF THE CWA A HIGHER FLOOD RISK DESPITE THE ROUNDS OF RAIN. HOWEVER...
SHOULD THE HEAVIER CELLS TRAIN OVER A SPOT LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE RAIN WILL ACCUMULATE ENOUGH THAT THE DITCHES AND CREEKS
WILL CERTAINLY BE FULL AT TIMES AND THE LARGER RIVERS WILL RESPOND
AND START TO FILL UP AS WELL. FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT THE
TRACK LOOKS TO FAVOR THE SOUTH AND LIKELY BE A LITTLE LESS ROBUST...
THOUGH EACH WAVE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...COULD HAVE PLACES THAT GET
HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADDRESSED IN AN
ESFJKL. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL WITH A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE.
ONCE AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT AGAIN FOR THE
T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 18-24 HOURS BEFORE GOING WITH THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID NOT SEE MANY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
TEMPERATURE IMPROVEMENTS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
WERE MADE TO THE MAX AND MIN T GRIDS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP MOST
SIMILAR TO THE WETTER MAV NUMBERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...BUT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ACTUAL PATTERN. HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT PLAINS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE FORMING A CUT OFF LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OR MIDWEST BY TUESDAY. FROM THERE FORWARD
THE 12Z GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE TAKING THIS LARGE SYSTEM INTO
THE NORTHEAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z CANADIAN APPEARS TO BE
COMPROMISE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE 0Z ECMWF...SLOWEST OF ALL THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS ROTATES THE LOW THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AT
A TURTLES PACE BEFORE LIFTING THE SYSTEM NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. NATIONAL GUIDANCE QUESTIONS HOW THE
ECMWF CAN KEEP THE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY FOR SO
LONG WITHOUT BETTER SUPPORT FROM THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THAT WOULD PRODUCE THE SPLIT FLOW NECESSARY FOR ITS SOLUTION...AND
IN GENERAL THEY ARE NOT SEEING THOSE TYPES OF SIGNALS. THEREFORE
WILL TEND TO STICK WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
AT THE SURFACE A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN
THE REGION LIFTING NORTH AND SOUTH WITH EACH PASSING SFC WAVE AND/OR
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OF OUR AREA LATE
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM STRENGTHENS TO OUR
WEST. THERE IS MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THEREAFTER BUT
CONSENSUS APPROACH SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE...COLD AIR MASS INSTABILITY TYPE SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE
MID WEEK TIME FRAME.
AS FAR AS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...STRONG LLJ MAY DEVELOP
OVER OUR AREA...AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS H850 WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 50 AND 70 KTS. THESE
STRONGER WINDS COULD MIX DOWN CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG
STORMS AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA EITHER
LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THIS THREAT WILL INCREASE SHOULD WE SEE
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SUNLIGHT MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS TOO MUCH
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS TO HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
OTHER DETAILS AT THIS POINT. STRONGER...GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT AS WELL...WHICH MAY BE REALIZED
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. ANOTHER HIGHLIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL
PWATS...TIMING OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WOULD PROVIDE
SOME DECENT BREAKS...RECOVERY TIME BETWEEN SUCCESSIVE BOUTS OF RAIN.
THOUGHTS ARE THAT TRAINING OF CELLS MAY CREATE A MUCH GREATER THREAT
OF HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER SATURATED GROUND. IN ADDITION...
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE SPREAD OUT OVER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.
THEREFORE FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GREAT A THREAT AS
IT MIGHT NORMALLY BE. HOWEVER SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LARGER CREEKS
AND STREAMS...AND EVENTUALLY AREA RIVERS...WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
LONG HAUL. ATTM THE CURRENT HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK HANDLES OUR CURRENT
SITUATION WELL.
IN GENERAL SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS QUITE UNSTABLE THROUGH TUESDAY...
BUT GRADUALLY IMPROVES AND DRIES OUT THEREAFTER WITH ONLY SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO DEAL WITH WED-THU. STUCK TO A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. WITH SUCH A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET AND FETCH OF
AIR INTO THE REGION MONDAY NUDGED TEMPS UP CLOSER TO THE WARMER GFS
GUIDANCE VERSUS THE BLEND. LOOKING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. SHOULD THE ECMWF EVENTUALLY TURN OUT TO BE THE BEST
SOLUTION...TUESDAY/S HIGH AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY NIGHTS LOW TEMPS
WOULD COME IN WARMER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
FOLLOWING THE CURRENT LULL...IN A FEW HOURS THE CONVECTION WILL AGAIN
BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA AND LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE EVENING.
DESPITE THE CURRENT LULL...A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT HAS RESULTED IN
LOW CIGS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. LATER...WITH THE MORE CONCENTRATED
AREAS OF PCPN...VIS WILL FALL TO IFR OR LOWER FOR A TIME. THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO LAST OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...
HOWEVER SOMETIME AFTER 04Z TONIGHT...EXPECT THE CIGS...THAT MANAGED
TO LIFT A BIT AS THE CONVECTION MOVES BACK IN...TO FALL BACK TO 500
FEET OR LOWER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE HILLTOPS OBSCURED IN
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY 5 TO
10 KTS WITH A SWITCH TO THE NORTH ANTICIPATED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
THE EARLY AFTERNOON LULL IS IN THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS POISED TO COME TO AN END AS DEVELOPMENT IS TAKING PLACE
OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE AND PROGGED BY THE HRRR AND NAM12 TO RIDE INTO
OUR AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO BETTER
REFLECT THIS ALONG WITH TWEAKING TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS PER THE LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHED TO THE EAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CROSSING EAST KENTUCKY
WITH AN INITIAL WAVE PULLING OUT OF THE AREA TO THE EAST LATE THIS
MORNING. A RENEWAL IN THE CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER BATCH OF
MID LEVEL ENERGY PASSING OVER THE STATE. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
THINNING TAKES PLACE IN THE CLOUD COVER WE MAY PICK UP ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT...FROM THE
RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE OF A 120 KT 300 MB JET STREAK...TO GENERATE SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THESE STORMS...SHOULD THEY DEVELOP. IN THE MEANTIME...QUITE THE
BAROCLINIC SET UP EXISTS ACROSS THE STALLED BOUNDARY WITH TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 60S SOUTH IN
KENTUCKY...AND IN THE LOWER 70S FOR PARTS OF TENNESSEE. THE COLDER
SIDE OF THE FRONT WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
THUNDER BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES SO HAVE DROPPED THEM TO ISOLATED
T WHILE TO THE SOUTH THE THREAT REMAINS. GENERALLY 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WHILE THE NORTH HAS SEEN A FRACTION OF THOSE
TOTALS. ACCORDINGLY...OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE BETTER
THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH THIS NEXT BATCH OF RAIN AND WILL
NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FLOOD ISSUES. THE GRIDS
HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND WILL BE SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
SHORTLY ALONG WITH AN UPDATED ZFP TO REMOVE THE MORNING FOG WORDING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 820 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
DID A QUICK UPDATED TO THE FORECAST TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST
CONSSHORT GUIDANCE AND TWEAK QPF MORE TO THE SOUTH AS THE MAIN
PCPN AXIS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH AND WILL LIKELY STAY THAT WAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MORNING. ALSO ADDED HEAVY RAIN ATTRIBUTES TO THE MORE
CONCENTRATED AREAS OF CONVECTION. ALSO FINE TUNED T/TD GRIDS THROUGH
THE MORNING PER THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND CONSSHORT GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT WILL BISECT EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTH
AND THEN TONIGHT WILL START MOVING BACK TO THE SOUTH. THE BOTTOM LINE
IS THAT WE ARE IN STORE FOR SOME WET UNSETTLED WEATHER. NORTH THE
FRONT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS IS THE RAINFALL. SINCE THIS FRONT IS MOVING
SLOWLY...IT IS POSSIBLE TO DROP A LOT OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME AND
THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH STREAMS...DITCHES
AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS RUNNING FULL.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED BEGINS IN
TRANSITION AS ZONAL FLOW OVER THE OH VALLEY TRANSITIONS INTO AS MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN. THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH A FEATURED WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
QUICKLY LIFTS NORTHEAST. THEN THE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN BEGINS WITH
A 120 KNOT JET STREAK MOVING OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THIS AREA. THIS
ENHANCES THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MS
RIVER VALLEY AND MOVES EAST INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY
AND FINALLY NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THE END OF THE
EXTENDED. WHILE NOT IN THE DETAIL OF THE LOWER LEVELS...THE EURO AND
GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN.
GETTING INTO SOME DETAILS IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A REMNANT STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A POINT FOR SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
MS VALLEY AS THE MENTIONED FIRST SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDED ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
PRECIP THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. THE NEXT INFLUENCE WILL BE THE INCREASED
AMPLIFICATION IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS THE JET STREAK MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DEEPENING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WITH
THIS...STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND MOVE EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY BY TUESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE
A BETTER SHOT OF MOISTURE AND INCREASED PRECIP. THE FORECAST
CHALLENGE WILL BE WITH THIS POTENTIALLY POTENT FRONT AND THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND IF THIS SCENARIO WILL POSE A
FLOOD THREAT IN THE EXTENDED...ESPECIALLY WITH HOW MUCH RAIN LOOKS
TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE DEVELOPING STRONG FRONT ON TUESDAY AS WELL AND WILL STAY WITH
THE SUPER BLEND SOLUTION ON POPS FOR THIS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THE FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
FOLLOWING THE CURRENT LULL...IN A FEW HOURS THE CONVECTION WILL AGAIN
BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA AND LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE EVENING.
DESPITE THE CURRENT LULL...A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT HAS RESULTED IN
LOW CIGS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. LATER...WITH THE MORE CONCENTRATED
AREAS OF PCPN...VIS WILL FALL TO IFR OR LOWER FOR A TIME. THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO LAST OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...
HOWEVER SOMETIME AFTER 04Z TONIGHT...EXPECT THE CIGS...THAT MANAGED
TO LIFT A BIT AS THE CONVECTION MOVES BACK IN...TO FALL BACK TO 500
FEET OR LOWER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE HILLTOPS OBSCURED IN
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY 5 TO
10 KTS WITH A SWITCH TO THE NORTH ANTICIPATED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
219 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK, DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT AND SPREAD LIGHT RAIN INTO THE WYOMING
VALLEY...POCONOS...AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS OVERNIGHT. THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARMER
WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KTYX RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TRACKING
ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. LAKE ONTARIO TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE UPPER 50S F WHICH TRANSLATES TO 14-15C. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO 1C WHICH IS LEADING TO A 13-14C TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENTIAL. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME MODEST WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
ADVECTING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE LARGE CYCLONE OVER EASTERN
CANADA WAS SUPPORTING SOME LAKE EFFECT SHRA. THE FLOW BETWEEN 900 AND
800 MB WAS DUE WESTERLY LATE THIS MORNING. THE FLOW IS PROJECTED
BY THE RAP, HRRR AND NAM TO VEER MORE NWRLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
OCCUR IN CONCERT WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND SHUD ALLOW THE LAKE
EFFECT SHRA TO BREAK UP BY 20Z OR SO. RADAR LOOP ALREADY SHOWS
THIS AND WE WILL CONT THIS TREND IN THE GRIDS.
NEXT WEATHER FEATURE TO AFFECT CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA IS A
SOUTHERN BRANCH WAVE WHICH WAS PRESENTLY MOVING ACRS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO OHIO VALLEY. THE ASSCTD UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL UNDERCUT
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WHICH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
SLOWER THAN THIS SRN BRANCH WAVE. THIS WILL LEAD TO UPPER
CONFLUENCE OVER MUCH OF C AND NRN NY TO NRN NEW ENGLAND AND SE
CANADA BY THIS EVENING AND SUPPORT AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THE
POSITIONING OF THIS JET STREAK PUTS MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN PA IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SUPPORTG UVV LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. HI RES
MESOSCALE MODELS WHICH AGREE WITH THE PRESENT RADAR ECHOES SUPPORT A
RAIN SHIELD HEADING NE AND AFFECTING NE PA WITH LIGHT RAINFALL. THERE WILL
BE A SHARP CUT OFF TO THE RAIN FARTHER N. BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW
FAR N WILL THE RAIN MAKE IT. WE DIDNT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAINFALL AS WE ARE WAITING FOR THE LATEST
12Z GUIDC TO COME IN. SO WE FOLLOWED PREVIOUS SHIFTS IDEA OF
HIGHEST POPS IN THE POCONOS WHICH BACK OFF TO SLGHT CHC NEAR THE
NY BRDR TO THE CATSKILLS. TIMING IS FROM ABT 22Z TODAY TO 14Z
SAT. REST OF FORECAST AREA WILL SEE MAINLY MID TO HI CLDS STREAM
OVERHEAD THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH SOME CUMULUS
FORMING IN NC NY WHERE THE CIRRUS WILL BE THINNER INITIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS END QUICKLY EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE WEEKEND LOOKING DRY.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND CRESTING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT, WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FROST LOOK LIKELY. WHILE WE ARE INTO
OUR SECOND WEEK OF OCTOBER, SOME OF OUR WARMER AREAS SUCH AS THE
LAKE PLAIN HAVE NOT SEEN A FROST YET SO FROST HEADLINES MAY BE
NEEDED AS WE GET A BIT CLOSER. THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
SUNDAY NIGHT IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST OF A
HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN IS STILL IN LINE WITH THE 0Z EURO, WHICH SHOWS
RAIN AREA WIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND NAM ARE
COMPLETELY DRY OUTSIDE OF A LATE NIGHT SHOWER OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND NEWER
GUIDANCE, WHILE STILL SHOWING SOME WEIGHT OF OUR PREVIOUS
FORECAST/EURO SOLUTION, LOWERED POPS INTO THE 25% RANGE. THE TREND
HOWEVER WOULD SUGGEST RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE AMPLIFIED TROF
SLOWLY MOVING EAST THROUGH THE REGION THE WHOLE PERIOD. QUESTIONS
STILL ON TIMING AND STRENGTH. WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE DEEP CUT OFF
TROF TUESDAY TO WED. LIKELY POPS TUE NGT AND WED ON THE FRONT SIDE
OF TROF. DEEP AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO
OUR AREA FROM GULF AND TROPICS. SOAKING RAIN EXPECTED WITH AN INCH
OR TWO. TRAINING POSSIBLE SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR HEAVY RAIN.
WED TO FRI STILL CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNDER THE TROF BUT GFS FASTER
AND THUS DRY FRIDAY WHILE EURO STILL SHOWERY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. VFR CIGS NORTH WITH LAKE MOISTURE OFF
OF LAKE ONTARIO AND HURON AND ALSO JUST SOUTH OF AVP WITH A WAVE
PASSING. THIS EVE THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL SCATTER BUT MORE
MOISTURE FROM THE SW WILL MOVE INTO SRN TIER OF NY AND NE PA LATE
TONIGHT. AT ELM SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLEARING SO THAT MVFR VSBY FOG
FORMS AND POSSIBLY IFR FOG 9 TO 13Z. AT AVP LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED
WITH POSSIBLY SOME MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT. AVP WILL BE ON THE EDGE
OF THE RAIN.
WEST WIND 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT. NW TO N WINDS AT 5 KTS STARTING 15Z SAT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT AFTN TO SUN NGT...VFR. MVFR VALLEY FOG AT ELM.
MON TO TUE...DEEP SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF CNTRL U.S. TROF RESULTING IN
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CIGS/SHRA/BR.
TUE NGT TO WED...STEADY RAIN RESULTING IN MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/HEDEN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
656 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL STALL
TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY AND CROSS EASTERN
NC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...THE 3KM HRRR MODEL DOING A GOOD JOB WITH
CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER ASSOCIATED
WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT OVER
CENTRAL VIRGINIA. SHORT-TERM MODELS MOVE THE PRECIP SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
STABILIZE AND EXPECT ONLY SOME SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AS THE INCREASE IN SHOWERS COUPLED
WITH A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP MINIMUM TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER WARM AND MAINLY DRY DAY TO START THE WEEKEND AS SFC FRONT
SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME,
MAINLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED IN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT BUT LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS AT LEAST INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S INLAND. WIND OFF COOLER WATER WILL HOLD TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE INCREASING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN AREAS AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY SUGGESTS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM,
HOWEVER MOISTURE AND THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE LACKING FOR
BOTH HEAVIER RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM FRI...THE SFC BOUNDARY BEGINS TO WASHOUT SUN INTO MON
AND WILL CONTINUE A DRYING TREND SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND NOSES SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC...ALTHOUGH
WITH ONSHORE FLOW CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER SO WILL MAINTAIN
LOW SLIGHT CHANCE. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY WITH GREATER CLOUD
COVER AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THICKNESSES. MAX TEMPS MID TO UPPER 70S
SUN WARMING BACK TO NEAR 80S MON.
SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHEASTERLY TUES AS A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE LOW WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC SOMETIME TUES
NIGHT INTO WED. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL ENS MEMBERS DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF
LOW TO THE WEST WHICH WILL HAVE TIMING IMPLICATIONS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES THE 00Z TREND OF A LARGE CUT-
OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDWEST...WITH A MUCH SLOWER FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS EASTERN NC WED INTO WED NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL
DISCOUNT THE ECMWF WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WILL LIMIT POPS TO 40-50 PERCENT TUES AFTERNOON INTO
WED. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF THUNDER AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR AND HELICITY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE FRONT. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE
REGION WED NIGHT INTO THURS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL AGAIN
PUSH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY TUES WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES BUILDING 1390-1400 METERS...THEN NEAR NORMAL WED/THURS
AS THICKNESSES LOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO RANGE IN THE LOWER 80S TUES WITH MID 70S WED AND THURS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM FRIDAY...CONTINUE MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. INCREASING CLOUDS COUPLED WITH
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOST FOG AT BAY OVERNIGHT. SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AT KISO/KPGV/KOAJ
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT PROGS
SHOW A MINIMAL THREAT AND WILL KEEP OUT. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 350 PM FRI...PREDOMINANT VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
A WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE REGION INTO SUNDAY
BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIP...HOWEVER SOME UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHEASTERLY MON ALLOWING TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS TO INCREASE...WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUES AND COULD SEE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY TUES.
BRIEF OVERNIGHT FOG/STRATUS MAY BE AN ISSUE EARLY MON AND TUES
MORNING THOUGH LIGHT SURFACE MIXING MAY PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND SLOW-MOVING FRONT
SLIDES SOUTH FROM VIRGINIA. SOUTH WINDS CURRENTLY AT 10 TO
OCCASIONALLY 15 KNOTS WITH INCREASE BY LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY WITH SW WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS VEER TO NORTHERLY
LATE IN THE DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH. SEAS ARE
CURRENTLY 2 TO 3 FEET...BUT WILL BUILD AT 4 TO 5 FEET BEHIND THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 350 PM FRI...EXPECT N/NE WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT DEVELOP AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE STRONGEST EXPECTED EARLY SUN MORNING. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASHOUT LATE SUN WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BY MON. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASES TO 15-25 KT
TUES...WHICH VEERS TO SLY AND POSSIBLY AS STRONG AS 30 KT TUE NIGHT
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SEAS BUILD UP TO 5 FT LATE ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE OUTER WATERS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT INTO SUN.
SEAS SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY MON...BUT ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE QUICKLY
TUES AS SE/SLY FLOW INCREASES PEAKING AROUND 6-8 FT AND POSSIBLY
HIGHER LATE TUES NIGHT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH III IN
DESCENT AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM THOUGH THE LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IS
PREFERRED IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SUN.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
315 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...
THEN DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...
BAND OF CONVECTION NOW STRETCHING ACROSS THE VA/WV BORDER SOUTHWEST
THROUGH TN HAS HAD A TOUGH TIME MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS TOWARD THE
CWA THUS FAR... AS THE MEAN STEERING FLOW HAS KEPT MOST OF THE
PRECIP TRACKING TO THE NE. PATCHY SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER THE NE
PIEDMONT WITHIN WEAK INSTABILITY... ALTHOUGH UPSCALE GROWTH OF THESE
ARE UNLIKELY GIVEN THEIR MOVEMENT INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
WILL RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING... FOLLOWING THE PATH OF HIGH
MAGNITUDES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT... AND HIGH CHANCES TO
LOW-END LIKELY POPS NEAR THE VA BORDER... FOLLOWING INDICATIONS FROM
HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS... IN
ADDITION TO SREF PROBABILITIES WHICH ARE QUITE LOW ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE HIGHWAY 64 CORRIDOR. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW THE BEST
COVERAGE NEAR THE VA BORDER DURING THE EVENING HOURS... SO WILL
MAXIMIZE THE POPS DURING THIS TIME... ALLOWING THEM TO SLIP BACK TO
LOWER CHANCES IN THE NW AND FAR NORTH ONLY OVERNIGHT AS THE INITIAL
SURFACE LOW... EXPECTED TO FORM OVER SW VA BY EARLY EVENING...
TRACKS OFF TO THE ENE. BASED ON CURRENT AND UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS... AND CONSIDERING THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
HOLD NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT... WILL KEEP LOWS
QUITE MILD... 62-66. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...
FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT: STILL ANTICIPATE BACKDOOR FRONTAL PASSAGE MID
AFTERNOON SAT THROUGH EARLY EVENING... AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
NOW OVER NM TRACKS TO THE ENE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE
FRONT`S SOUTHWARD PUSH WILL ALSO BE ENCOURAGED BY DIGGING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHICH WILL ALLOW COOL AND DENSE
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO NY/PA BY SAT NIGHT
TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO VA/NC. CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN... ALTHOUGH DESPITE IMPROVING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FROM AROUND 25 KTS TO AS MUCH AS 45-50 KTS FROM SAT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT... MUCAPE IS MARGINAL... BELOW 1000 J/KG ON THE
GFS AND BELOW 1500 J/KG ON THE NAM. NEVERTHELESS... DYNAMIC FORCING
FOR ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING DPVA ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER
DIVERGENCE SHOULD PARTIALLY MAKE UP FOR THE THERMODYNAMIC
DEFICIENCIES. WILL KEEP SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS AS GOOD CHANCE
FOR NOW... BUT WE MAY NEED TO GO UP TO LIKELY IF MODEL TRENDS
PERSIST. PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD DROP SOUTH AND DECREASE SAT NIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE FRONT. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS TO FORM BEHIND THE FRONT SAT NIGHT.
THICKNESSES AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE POINT TO HIGHS SAT FROM 77 NEAR
THE VA BORDER TO 85 IN THE FAR SOUTH... GIVEN THE DELAY IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. LOWS 53-61. -GIH
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: WITH THE FRONT STILL DRAPED ACROSS THE
AREA...THE MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE
IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT ON
SUNDAY. THAT BEING SAID...ISENTROPIC LIFT IS VERY WEAK AT BEST AND
THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HUGE RAIN PRODUCING EVENT. CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL BE BEST IN THE TRIAD WITH TOTALS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. IT WILL HOWEVER BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY IF NOT OVERCAST AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY
SUFFER. EXPECT A MAX T GRADIENT OF TEN DEGREES OR SO WITH LOWER 60S
IN THE NW TO LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST. SUNDAY NIGHT THE HIGH
BEGINS TO PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE
FRONT TO ALSO RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS
MODERATED WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S EXPECTED. -RTE
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DOWN INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER MO/IL
STRENGTHENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
COUPLED WITH EXITING HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
PUT CENTRAL NC IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME AS THE CAD BREAKS DOWN
WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE NW. DEPENDING HOW LONG THAT TAKES WILL
DETERMINE MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE TRIAD LIKELY IN
THE MIDDLE 60S WITH UPPER 70S IN THE EAST.
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE THE APPROACH OF A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL THE BIGGEST ISSUE WITH BOTH DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF STICKING TO THEIR GUNS. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER
WITH THE EC BECOMING MORE CUT OFF AND LESS PROGRESSIVE AS A RESULT.
LOOKING AT THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE AS A WHOLE WITH A PLANETARY WAVE
NUMBER OF 5 AND A WEAK OMEGA BLOCK DOWNSTREAM...THE PATTERN SHOULD
STILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST. THEREFORE STARTING TO
THINK THE ECMWF COULD BE A BIT TOO SLOW WITH THE SYSTEM. THE TRUTH
WILL PROBABLY BE BETWEEN THE TWO RUNS BUT WILL FOCUS MORE ON THE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME FOR POSSIBLE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THIS IS STILL LOOKING LIKE A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE EVENT.
PLACEMENT IS STILL GOOD FOR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 50 KT 850
MB JET AS WELL AS A NEAR 120 KT UPPER LEVEL JET ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF FORCING FOR ANY CONVECTION
THAT DOES GET STARTED ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS NOW CONFINED TO BELOW
500 J/KG. WHILE THIS WILL BE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT THE PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT IS FAST ENOUGH THAT QPF TOTALS MAY BE RESTRAINED TO 1 TO 2
INCHES OR SO. IT LOOKS LIKE THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE THERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT AND A BRIEF WINDOW FOR ROTATION IN
DISCREET CELLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUES AFT/EVE. INCREASED WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
MID 70S IN THE TRIAD WITH LOW 80S ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR. TUESDAY
NIGHT THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA BUT
THE REAL SURGE IN COLD AIR WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE AREA
UNTIL WEDNESDAY...LEAVING LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TUESDAY
NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THERE ARE KEY DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
WITH THE ECMWF LEAVING THE LOW CUT OFF AND HOVERING AROUND THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE GFS CARRIES THE LOW OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST AND REPLACES IT WITH A SURFACE RIGE BUILDING OUT OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE EAST COAST. THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE
FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY GRADUALLY MODERATING FROM THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM FRIDAY...
AT RDU/RWI/FAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
THIS EVENING. AT INT/GSO HOWEVER... WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS... THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO WILL BE INCREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THIS EVENING... WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. BY LATE EVENING AT
INT/GSO... THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CIGS IN STRATUS
DEVELOPING... WITH MVFR OR IFR VSBYS... AND LOWERING RAIN CHANCES.
LATE TONIGHT... AFTER 08Z... IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT
INT/GSO... WHILE AT RDU... THERE IS A SMALLER BUT NON-ZERO CHANCE OF
IFR/LIFR STRATUS DEVELOPING. ANY SUB-VFR CIGS SHOULD HOLD UNTIL
AROUND 14Z OR 15Z SAT... WHEN THEY ARE LIKELY TO MIX OUT AS NEAR-
SURFACE WINDS STRENGTHEN A LITTLE FROM THE SW OR WSW... AND WE
SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD
(AFTER 16Z). OVERALL... THE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGH 18Z SAT ARE
GREATEST AT INT/GSO AND MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING... WITH A MUCH LOWER CHANCE AT RDU/RWI... AND FAY SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH
OR SSW... SHIFTING AROUND TO BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST SAT
MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH TOWARD THE SSE THROUGH
CENTRAL NC SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR TONIGHT AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 13Z OR 14Z SAT
MAINLY AT INT/GSO... AS WINDS AT 1200-1800 FT AGL WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 30-35 KTS WITH SURFACE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SAT... SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. AVIATORS SHOULD BE ALERT
FOR THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT PUSHING
TOWARD THE SSE THROUGH THE AREA SAT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
VEER TO NORTH THEN QUICKLY TO BE FROM THE NE. POOR AVIATION
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT WITH SUB-VFR (MAINLY
IFR/LIFR) CIGS LIKELY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR/VFR IS EXPECTED BY LATE MON. BUT IFR STRATUS MAY RETURN MON
NIGHT. A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST TUE... CREATING STRONG/GUSTY AND SHIFTING WINDS AND PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN/STORMS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN WED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD/ELLIS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
252 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...
THEN DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...
BAND OF CONVECTION NOW STRETCHING ACROSS THE VA/WV BORDER SOUTHWEST
THROUGH TN HAS HAD A TOUGH TIME MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS TOWARD THE
CWA THUS FAR... AS THE MEAN STEERING FLOW HAS KEPT MOST OF THE
PRECIP TRACKING TO THE NE. PATCHY SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER THE NE
PIEDMONT WITHIN WEAK INSTABILITY... ALTHOUGH UPSCALE GROWTH OF THESE
ARE UNLIKELY GIVEN THEIR MOVEMENT INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
WILL RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING... FOLLOWING THE PATH OF HIGH
MAGNITUDES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT... AND HIGH CHANCES TO
LOW-END LIKELY POPS NEAR THE VA BORDER... FOLLOWING INDICATIONS FROM
HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS... IN
ADDITION TO SREF PROBABILITIES WHICH ARE QUITE LOW ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE HIGHWAY 64 CORRIDOR. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW THE BEST
COVERAGE NEAR THE VA BORDER DURING THE EVENING HOURS... SO WILL
MAXIMIZE THE POPS DURING THIS TIME... ALLOWING THEM TO SLIP BACK TO
LOWER CHANCES IN THE NW AND FAR NORTH ONLY OVERNIGHT AS THE INITIAL
SURFACE LOW... EXPECTED TO FORM OVER SW VA BY EARLY EVENING...
TRACKS OFF TO THE ENE. BASED ON CURRENT AND UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS... AND CONSIDERING THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
HOLD NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT... WILL KEEP LOWS
QUITE MILD... 62-66. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...
SATURDAY...STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO THE EXPECTED SHOWER COVERAGE.
SOME MODELS MAINTAIN BETTER LOW-MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE ACROSS VA WHILE
SOME (GFS) DRIFT THE 850-700MB TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH INTO NC SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE TRUTH IS LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THOUGH
CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION OCCURRING THIS MORNING OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...FEEL THAT A SOUTHWARD
DRIFT IS MORE PROBABLE. THUS SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE AS THE DAY WEARS ON ACROSS THE NORTH...DRIFTING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT-SANDHILLS BY LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. DUE
TO BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE...WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 50 PERCENT FOR
NOW.
TEMPS SATURDAY DEPENDENT UPON SHOWER COVERAGE. IF SHOWERS MORE
EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENT THINKING...THEN HIGH TEMPS MAY BE AS MUCH AS
3-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. LATE DAY ARRIVAL OF
THICKER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
RETURN TO THE LOW-MID 80S SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64. MAX TEMPS MID-UPPER
70S NORTH TO MID 80S FAR SOUTH. -WSS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING... AS THE SURFACE FRONT SETTLES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... SOME QUESTION REMAIN WITH REGARD
TO HOW DEEP THE LOW LEVEL COOL DRY AIR WILL BE AND WHERE WE WILL SEE
CHANCES FOR RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. STILL THINK WE WILL SEE AT LEAST
SOME PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT... DESPITE THE LATEST
NAM AND GFS SHOWING NO PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE FRONT PUSHING
FURTHER SOUTH THAN AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. THUS... WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY A CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD... WHICH SHOULD BE THE
START OF A COLD AIR DAMMING AIR MASS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING
ON THE DEGREE OF COLD DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE... COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE PRECIP FALLING INTO THE DAMMING
AIR MASS. THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR A BIT COOLER... SO WILL TREND THE
LOWS DOWNWARD A BIT FOR SUNDAY MORNING... YIELDING UPPER 50S NORTH
TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT... SETTING THE STAGE FOR CLOUDY AND
COOL CONDITIONS... WITH SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE... BEST
CHANCE IN THE HEART OF THE WEDGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.
THINK STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE OVERDONE... AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE TO BELOW GUIDANCE. THIS YIELDS HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO NEAR 70
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. LOWS MONDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S... THUS... NOT MUCH OF DIURNAL RANGE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED NEXT WEEK.. WITH A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY ALONG WITH AN
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT. WITH THE COMBINATION OF SOME MID LEVEL
DRYING ON MONDAY AND A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW LIFTING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING INTO THE GREAT LATES REGION BY
TUESDAY MORNING... WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE CAD BEGIN TO ERODE... WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FURTHER EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE OF THE
NORTHEAST U.S. HOWEVER... NWP MODELS TEND TO ERODE THE WEDGE AIR
MASS TOO QUICKLY IN THESE SITUATION. THUS... HAVE TREND HIGH TEMPS
DOWN SOME ON MONDAY... ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT (MAYBE
NOT EVEN ENOUGH)... WITH AT LEAST SOME CONTINUED CHANCES OF PRECIP
IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ABOVE THE
COOL STABLE AIR MASS. THUS... WILL GO WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S IN THE NW TO UPPER 70S GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
RALEIGH. (LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR TEMPS THOUGH).
EXPECT WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE SOME SORT OF LINGERING CAD BOUNDARY
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT... WITH TEMPS NEAR STEADY THERE
DURING THE PERIOD. THUS... WILL GO WITH LOW TEMPS ON TUESDAY MORNING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DOWN INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER MO/IL
STRENGTHENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
COUPLED WITH EXITING HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
PUT CENTRAL NC IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME AS THE CAD BREAKS DOWN
WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE NW. DEPENDING HOW LONG THAT TAKES WILL
DETERMINE MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE TRIAD LIKELY IN
THE MIDDLE 60S WITH UPPER 70S IN THE EAST.
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE THE APPROACH OF A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL THE BIGGEST ISSUE WITH BOTH DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF STICKING TO THEIR GUNS. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER
WITH THE EC BECOMING MORE CUT OFF AND LESS PROGRESSIVE AS A RESULT.
LOOKING AT THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE AS A WHOLE WITH A PLANETARY WAVE
NUMBER OF 5 AND A WEAK OMEGA BLOCK DOWNSTREAM...THE PATTERN SHOULD
STILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST. THEREFORE STARTING TO
THINK THE ECMWF COULD BE A BIT TOO SLOW WITH THE SYSTEM. THE TRUTH
WILL PROBABLY BE BETWEEN THE TWO RUNS BUT WILL FOCUS MORE ON THE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME FOR POSSIBLE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THIS IS STILL LOOKING LIKE A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE EVENT.
PLACEMENT IS STILL GOOD FOR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 50 KT 850
MB JET AS WELL AS A NEAR 120 KT UPPER LEVEL JET ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF FORCING FOR ANY CONVECTION
THAT DOES GET STARTED ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS NOW CONFINED TO BELOW
500 J/KG. WHILE THIS WILL BE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT THE PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT IS FAST ENOUGH THAT QPF TOTALS MAY BE RESTRAINED TO 1 TO 2
INCHES OR SO. IT LOOKS LIKE THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE THERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT AND A BRIEF WINDOW FOR ROTATION IN
DISCREET CELLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUES AFT/EVE. INCREASED WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
MID 70S IN THE TRIAD WITH LOW 80S ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR. TUESDAY
NIGHT THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA BUT
THE REAL SURGE IN COLD AIR WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE AREA
UNTIL WEDNESDAY...LEAVING LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TUESDAY
NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THERE ARE KEY DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
WITH THE ECMWF LEAVING THE LOW CUT OFF AND HOVERING AROUND THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE GFS CARRIES THE LOW OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST AND REPLACES IT WITH A SURFACE RIGE BUILDING OUT OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE EAST COAST. THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE
FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY GRADUALLY MODERATING FROM THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM FRIDAY...
AT RDU/RWI/FAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
THIS EVENING. AT INT/GSO HOWEVER... WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS... THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO WILL BE INCREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THIS EVENING... WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. BY LATE EVENING AT
INT/GSO... THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CIGS IN STRATUS
DEVELOPING... WITH MVFR OR IFR VSBYS... AND LOWERING RAIN CHANCES.
LATE TONIGHT... AFTER 08Z... IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT
INT/GSO... WHILE AT RDU... THERE IS A SMALLER BUT NON-ZERO CHANCE OF
IFR/LIFR STRATUS DEVELOPING. ANY SUB-VFR CIGS SHOULD HOLD UNTIL
AROUND 14Z OR 15Z SAT... WHEN THEY ARE LIKELY TO MIX OUT AS NEAR-
SURFACE WINDS STRENGTHEN A LITTLE FROM THE SW OR WSW... AND WE
SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD
(AFTER 16Z). OVERALL... THE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGH 18Z SAT ARE
GREATEST AT INT/GSO AND MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING... WITH A MUCH LOWER CHANCE AT RDU/RWI... AND FAY SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH
OR SSW... SHIFTING AROUND TO BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST SAT
MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH TOWARD THE SSE THROUGH
CENTRAL NC SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR TONIGHT AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 13Z OR 14Z SAT
MAINLY AT INT/GSO... AS WINDS AT 1200-1800 FT AGL WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 30-35 KTS WITH SURFACE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SAT... SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. AVIATORS SHOULD BE ALERT
FOR THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT PUSHING
TOWARD THE SSE THROUGH THE AREA SAT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
VEER TO NORTH THEN QUICKLY TO BE FROM THE NE. POOR AVIATION
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT WITH SUB-VFR (MAINLY
IFR/LIFR) CIGS LIKELY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR/VFR IS EXPECTED BY LATE MON. BUT IFR STRATUS MAY RETURN MON
NIGHT. A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST TUE... CREATING STRONG/GUSTY AND SHIFTING WINDS AND PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN/STORMS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN WED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KCP/HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
240 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...
THEN DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...
BAND OF CONVECTION NOW STRETCHING ACROSS THE VA/WV BORDER SOUTHWEST
THROUGH TN HAS HAD A TOUGH TIME MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS TOWARD THE
CWA THUS FAR... AS THE MEAN STEERING FLOW HAS KEPT MOST OF THE
PRECIP TRACKING TO THE NE. PATCHY SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER THE NE
PIEDMONT WITHIN WEAK INSTABILITY... ALTHOUGH UPSCALE GROWTH OF THESE
ARE UNLIKELY GIVEN THEIR MOVEMENT INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
WILL RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING... FOLLOWING THE PATH OF HIGH
MAGNITUDES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT... AND HIGH CHANCES TO
LOW-END LIKELY POPS NEAR THE VA BORDER... FOLLOWING INDICATIONS FROM
HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS... IN
ADDITION TO SREF PROBABILITIES WHICH ARE QUITE LOW ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE HIGHWAY 64 CORRIDOR. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW THE BEST
COVERAGE NEAR THE VA BORDER DURING THE EVENING HOURS... SO WILL
MAXIMIZE THE POPS DURING THIS TIME... ALLOWING THEM TO SLIP BACK TO
LOWER CHANCES IN THE NW AND FAR NORTH ONLY OVERNIGHT AS THE INITIAL
SURFACE LOW... EXPECTED TO FORM OVER SW VA BY EARLY EVENING...
TRACKS OFF TO THE ENE. BASED ON CURRENT AND UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS... AND CONSIDERING THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
HOLD NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT... WILL KEEP LOWS
QUITE MILD... 62-66. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...
SATURDAY...STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO THE EXPECTED SHOWER COVERAGE.
SOME MODELS MAINTAIN BETTER LOW-MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE ACROSS VA WHILE
SOME (GFS) DRIFT THE 850-700MB TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH INTO NC SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE TRUTH IS LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THOUGH
CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION OCCURRING THIS MORNING OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...FEEL THAT A SOUTHWARD
DRIFT IS MORE PROBABLE. THUS SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE AS THE DAY WEARS ON ACROSS THE NORTH...DRIFTING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT-SANDHILLS BY LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. DUE
TO BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE...WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 50 PERCENT FOR
NOW.
TEMPS SATURDAY DEPENDENT UPON SHOWER COVERAGE. IF SHOWERS MORE
EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENT THINKING...THEN HIGH TEMPS MAY BE AS MUCH AS
3-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. LATE DAY ARRIVAL OF
THICKER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
RETURN TO THE LOW-MID 80S SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64. MAX TEMPS MID-UPPER
70S NORTH TO MID 80S FAR SOUTH. -WSS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING... AS THE SURFACE FRONT SETTLES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... SOME QUESTION REMAIN WITH REGARD
TO HOW DEEP THE LOW LEVEL COOL DRY AIR WILL BE AND WHERE WE WILL SEE
CHANCES FOR RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. STILL THINK WE WILL SEE AT LEAST
SOME PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT... DESPITE THE LATEST
NAM AND GFS SHOWING NO PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE FRONT PUSHING
FURTHER SOUTH THAN AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. THUS... WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY A CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD... WHICH SHOULD BE THE
START OF A COLD AIR DAMMING AIR MASS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING
ON THE DEGREE OF COLD DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE... COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE PRECIP FALLING INTO THE DAMMING
AIR MASS. THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR A BIT COOLER... SO WILL TREND THE
LOWS DOWNWARD A BIT FOR SUNDAY MORNING... YIELDING UPPER 50S NORTH
TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT... SETTING THE STAGE FOR CLOUDY AND
COOL CONDITIONS... WITH SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE... BEST
CHANCE IN THE HEART OF THE WEDGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.
THINK STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE OVERDONE... AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE TO BELOW GUIDANCE. THIS YIELDS HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO NEAR 70
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. LOWS MONDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S... THUS... NOT MUCH OF DIURNAL RANGE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED NEXT WEEK.. WITH A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY ALONG WITH AN
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT. WITH THE COMBINATION OF SOME MID LEVEL
DRYING ON MONDAY AND A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW LIFTING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING INTO THE GREAT LATES REGION BY
TUESDAY MORNING... WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE CAD BEGIN TO ERODE... WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FURTHER EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE OF THE
NORTHEAST U.S. HOWEVER... NWP MODELS TEND TO ERODE THE WEDGE AIR
MASS TOO QUICKLY IN THESE SITUATION. THUS... HAVE TREND HIGH TEMPS
DOWN SOME ON MONDAY... ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT (MAYBE
NOT EVEN ENOUGH)... WITH AT LEAST SOME CONTINUED CHANCES OF PRECIP
IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ABOVE THE
COOL STABLE AIR MASS. THUS... WILL GO WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S IN THE NW TO UPPER 70S GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
RALEIGH. (LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR TEMPS THOUGH).
EXPECT WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE SOME SORT OF LINGERING CAD BOUNDARY
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT... WITH TEMPS NEAR STEADY THERE
DURING THE PERIOD. THUS... WILL GO WITH LOW TEMPS ON TUESDAY MORNING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM FRIDAY...
MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF A L/W TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND ATTENDANT STRONG COLD FRONT. 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER CONSENSUS WITH THE TIMING THOUGH GFS
STILL A TAD FASTER THAN THE SLIGHTLY SLUGGISH ECMWF. STILL WITH THIS
PARTICULAR RUN...LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY IS NOW
TARGETED AS BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY EXPECT BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH
MAX TEMPS 75-80 NW AND LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. IF SUNSHINE IS MORE
PREVALENT TUESDAY THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED....COULD EASILY SEE MID
80S ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 (UPPER 80S SE?). STILL APPEARS A
THREAT FOR STRONG-SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY IF
LOW LEVEL AIR MASS DESTABILIZES DUE TO INSOLATION TUESDAY MORNING-
EARLY AFTERNOON. SHEAR PARAMETERS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ALSO...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE EXISTENCE
OF ANY LINGERING CAD WEDGE BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
(EXISTENCE OF THIS FEATURE WOULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL HELICITY).
HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHTLY QUICKER EXIT OF THE CLOUDS/CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY WITH IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS SW-NE LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY TRICKY. GFS
DEPICTS 805MB FLOW WITH A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT THOUGH 850MB TEMPS
DROP 12 DEG C WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE 850MB TROUGH. PARTIAL CLEARING
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND INITIALLY THEN TEMPS COOL OFF LATE IN THE
DAY. MAX TEMPS NEAR 70 NW TO MID 70S SE AFTER MIN TEMPS TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE.
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH MAX
TEMPS THURSDAY 4-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER
60S NORTH TO AROUND 70 SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM FRIDAY...
AT RDU/RWI/FAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
THIS EVENING. AT INT/GSO HOWEVER... WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS... THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO WILL BE INCREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THIS EVENING... WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. BY LATE EVENING AT
INT/GSO... THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CIGS IN STRATUS
DEVELOPING... WITH MVFR OR IFR VSBYS... AND LOWERING RAIN CHANCES.
LATE TONIGHT... AFTER 08Z... IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT
INT/GSO... WHILE AT RDU... THERE IS A SMALLER BUT NON-ZERO CHANCE OF
IFR/LIFR STRATUS DEVELOPING. ANY SUB-VFR CIGS SHOULD HOLD UNTIL
AROUND 14Z OR 15Z SAT... WHEN THEY ARE LIKELY TO MIX OUT AS NEAR-
SURFACE WINDS STRENGTHEN A LITTLE FROM THE SW OR WSW... AND WE
SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD
(AFTER 16Z). OVERALL... THE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGH 18Z SAT ARE
GREATEST AT INT/GSO AND MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING... WITH A MUCH LOWER CHANCE AT RDU/RWI... AND FAY SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH
OR SSW... SHIFTING AROUND TO BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST SAT
MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH TOWARD THE SSE THROUGH
CENTRAL NC SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR TONIGHT AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 13Z OR 14Z SAT
MAINLY AT INT/GSO... AS WINDS AT 1200-1800 FT AGL WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 30-35 KTS WITH SURFACE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SAT... SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. AVIATORS SHOULD BE ALERT
FOR THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT PUSHING
TOWARD THE SSE THROUGH THE AREA SAT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
VEER TO NORTH THEN QUICKLY TO BE FROM THE NE. POOR AVIATION
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT WITH SUB-VFR (MAINLY
IFR/LIFR) CIGS LIKELY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR/VFR IS EXPECTED BY LATE MON. BUT IFR STRATUS MAY RETURN MON
NIGHT. A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST TUE... CREATING STRONG/GUSTY AND SHIFTING WINDS AND PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN/STORMS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN WED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KCP/HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
703 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS OCCURRING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ON SUNDAY IT WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO MOVE
NORTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER FOR THIS EVENING MADE IT MORE CLOUDY AND KEPT
THE LOW THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS PER THE RADAR AND THE HRRR MODEL. THE AMOUNT OF
DECREASE IN THE CLOUD COVER IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. NORTHWEST
OHIO WHERE THE FROST ADVISORY HAS A CHANCE OF BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. OTHERWISE SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS MAY OCCUR BUT NOT A
CLEARING. NO CHANGE TO THE LOWS OR ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL SPREAD SOME THICKER CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS EVENING WITH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTH. CLOUD COVER WILL THEN
SLOWLY DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. IT APPEARS ENOUGH DRY AIR...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL MOVE INTO NW OHIO TO RAISE THE CONCERN FOR AREAS OF
FROST. HAVE GONE WITH A FROST ADVISORY ACROSS THIS REGION FOR LATE
TONIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM WEST TO EAST AND WILL ALL HING ON THE
THICKNESS OF THE CLOUD COVER. CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SHOULD
HOLD ON TO THE CLOUD COVER TO KEEP LOWS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
40. NW OHIO WILL SEE LOWS DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATED SOME OF THE SKY COVER GRIDS AND WORDING FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COOLER AIR WILL BE SPILLING ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY WHICH
RAISES CONCERNS ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THAT WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. AS THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE A LARGE PORTION OF INLAND LOCATIONS TO SEE
FROST DEVELOP. IF ENOUGH DRY AIR BUILDS INTO EXTREME NE OHIO AND
NW PA TO ERODE ANY LAKE CLOUDINESS THIS REGION COULD DIP BELOW 32
DEGREES. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH A FREEZE WATCH AT THIS
POINT BUT WILL MENTION IT IN THE HWO.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SWING AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON
SUNDAY. THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL AT LEAST INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER
OVER THE REGION WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AFTER THE WARM FRONT SURGES NORTH OF LAKE
ERIE ON MONDAY IT APPEARS THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE. THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAST THIS WILL OCCUR SO HAVE KEPT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD DO DRY CONDITIONS IF THE WARM FRONT REALLY CAN LIFT NORTH
OF LAKE ERIE BY MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE EACH DAY OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FULL LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME SPREAD WITH THE GFS ON
THE FASTER END OF THE SPECTRUM WITH RAIN QUICKLY MOVING EAST OF THE
AREA EVEN BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST OF THE MODELS
AND TRIES TO CLOSE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF TO OUR WEST WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE GFS SEEMS TO BE WAY TOO FAST AND WILL
LEAN THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GEM WHICH OFFERS A
COMPROMISE WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. ULTIMATELY WILL NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A SOLUTION MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF GIVEN THE AMPLITUDE OF
THE TROUGH AND NEXT PIECE OF JET ENERGY COMING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY
ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE MORE LIKE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NE OH/NW PA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
EXPECTING THE INSTABILITY TO GET CUT-OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AS THE SURFACE LOW OCCLUDES. SHEAR WILL BE HIGH WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHEST IN
THE EAST AHEAD OF THE RAIN ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 70...TAPERING
DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S IN NW OHIO.
THE FORECAST THROUGH MID-WEEK IS A BLENDED SOLUTIONS WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY FOR MOST
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK BELOW NORMAL INTO THE UPPER 50S
WITH THE COOLEST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING CUT-OFF NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS ARE LIMITED TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY BUT
MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO ALL AREAS IF THE LOW DOES CLOSE OFF.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL KEEP RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ONLY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NRN OHIO
AND NWRN PA THIS EVENING. MODELS SHOW THIS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. NORTH FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE HOWEVER COULD BRING IN LAKE
INDUCED MVFR CIGS AROUND KCLE AND KERI HOWEVER. EXPECT THIS TO MIX
OUT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING IF IT DEVELOPS HOWEVER WITH ALL THE
DRY AIR IN PLACE SATURDAY. LAST NIGHT FOG DEVELOPED MFD CAK AND
YNG. MODELS HINTING AT MVFR VISIBILITIES AGAIN. WENT AHEAD AND PUT
IN WITH POSSIBILITY OF IFR AROUND DAWN AS WELL.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NON VFR
SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN RAIN ON TUESDAY AND LINGERING
INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH 1 TO 3 FEET
WAVES...THEN DECREASE ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE EAST.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY ON SUNDAY THEN SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT.
DESPITE A STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT
STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE TO LIMIT MIXING SO THE FORECAST
ONLY CALLS FOR 10 TO 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AS WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ003-006-
008-017-018-027.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA/MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
629 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS OCCURRING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ON SUNDAY IT WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO MOVE
NORTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER FOR THIS EVENING MADE IT MORE CLOUDY AND KEPT
THE LOW THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS PER THE RADAR AND THE HRRR MODEL. THE AMOUNT OF
DECREASE IN THE CLOUD COVER IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. NORTHWEST
OHIO WHERE THE FROST ADVISORY HAS A CHANCE OF BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. OTHERWISE SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS MAY OCCUR BUT NOT A
CLEARING. NO CHANGE TO THE LOWS OR ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL SPREAD SOME THICKER CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS EVENING WITH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTH. CLOUD COVER WILL THEN
SLOWLY DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. IT APPEARS ENOUGH DRY AIR...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL MOVE INTO NW OHIO TO RAISE THE CONCERN FOR AREAS OF
FROST. HAVE GONE WITH A FROST ADVISORY ACROSS THIS REGION FOR LATE
TONIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM WEST TO EAST AND WILL ALL HING ON THE
THICKNESS OF THE CLOUD COVER. CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SHOULD
HOLD ON TO THE CLOUD COVER TO KEEP LOWS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
40. NW OHIO WILL SEE LOWS DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATED SOME OF THE SKY COVER GRIDS AND WORDING FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COOLER AIR WILL BE SPILLING ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY WHICH
RAISES CONCERNS ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THAT WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. AS THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE A LARGE PORTION OF INLAND LOCATIONS TO SEE
FROST DEVELOP. IF ENOUGH DRY AIR BUILDS INTO EXTREME NE OHIO AND
NW PA TO ERODE ANY LAKE CLOUDINESS THIS REGION COULD DIP BELOW 32
DEGREES. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH A FREEZE WATCH AT THIS
POINT BUT WILL MENTION IT IN THE HWO.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SWING AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON
SUNDAY. THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL AT LEAST INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER
OVER THE REGION WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AFTER THE WARM FRONT SURGES NORTH OF LAKE
ERIE ON MONDAY IT APPEARS THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE. THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAST THIS WILL OCCUR SO HAVE KEPT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD DO DRY CONDITIONS IF THE WARM FRONT REALLY CAN LIFT NORTH
OF LAKE ERIE BY MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE EACH DAY OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FULL LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME SPREAD WITH THE GFS ON
THE FASTER END OF THE SPECTRUM WITH RAIN QUICKLY MOVING EAST OF THE
AREA EVEN BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST OF THE MODELS
AND TRIES TO CLOSE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF TO OUR WEST WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE GFS SEEMS TO BE WAY TOO FAST AND WILL
LEAN THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GEM WHICH OFFERS A
COMPROMISE WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. ULTIMATELY WILL NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A SOLUTION MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF GIVEN THE AMPLITUDE OF
THE TROUGH AND NEXT PIECE OF JET ENERGY COMING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY
ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE MORE LIKE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NE OH/NW PA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
EXPECTING THE INSTABILITY TO GET CUT-OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AS THE SURFACE LOW OCCLUDES. SHEAR WILL BE HIGH WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHEST IN
THE EAST AHEAD OF THE RAIN ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 70...TAPERING
DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S IN NW OHIO.
THE FORECAST THROUGH MID-WEEK IS A BLENDED SOLUTIONS WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY FOR MOST
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK BELOW NORMAL INTO THE UPPER 50S
WITH THE COOLEST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING CUT-OFF NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS ARE LIMITED TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY BUT
MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO ALL AREAS IF THE LOW DOES CLOSE OFF.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER LAKE ERIE WHILE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SLIDES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH FOG ACROSS THE SRN SITES AS LAST NIGHT AS
WINDS STAY UP NEAR 5-8 KNOTS WITH LOTS OF HIGH CLOUD AROUND. DID
INCLUDE A BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT FDY/MFD/CAK ALTHOUGH
ITS POSSIBLE WE MAY NOT SEE THESE DEVELOP. RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECTING THIS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS. EXPECTING SOME MVFR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OFF LAKE ERIE
TONIGHT AND IMPACT ERI/CLE/YNG. LIGHT NORTH WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY NEAR LAKE ERIE AND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NON VFR SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN RAIN
ON TUESDAY AND LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH 1 TO 3 FEET
WAVES...THEN DECREASE ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE EAST.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY ON SUNDAY THEN SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT.
DESPITE A STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT
STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE TO LIMIT MIXING SO THE FORECAST
ONLY CALLS FOR 10 TO 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AS WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ003-006-
008-017-018-027.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA/MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
204 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION
TODAY INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND CROSSES THE REGION ON TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM...MODELS ARE INITIALIZING A VORT MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN
ZONAL FLOW OVER CENTRAL TN EARLY THIS MORNING. AND THAT SHORTWAVE
WILL TRACK ACRS THE CWFA THIS AFTN. AT THE SFC...A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT WAS ANALYZED WEST TO EAST FROM OKLAHOMA...THRU THE TN
VALLEY...TO THE DELMARVA. OUR AREA IS WITHIN A MOISTENING WARM
SECTOR AIR MASS...WITH SWLY LLVL FLOW. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME
STUBBORN LOW STRATUS ACRS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT...FROM NE GA TO THE
CHARLOTTE AREA. THESE CLOUDS SHUD GRADUALLY MIX OUT WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THE RAP SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS. IT HAS ISOLD
CONVECTION FIRING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHWRS/TSTMS ACRS TN AND NC MTNS THIS AFTN. SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO
THE POPS ARE NEEDED. BASED ON THE EXPECTED 1000+ J/KG OF CAPE WHERE
HEATING IS MAXIMIZED...AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS AGAIN LIKE
YESTERDAY...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE WORDING IN THE
HWO LOOKS GOOD...WITH A MENTION OF AN ISOLD SEVERE THREAT. TEMPS
LOOK ON TRACK (ABOUT 8 DEG ABOVE NORMAL)...ALTHO IF CLOUDS LINGER
INTO EARLY AFTN...A FEW LOCATIONS ACRS THE UPSTATE MAY NOT QUITE
REACH THEIR FCST HIGHS.
THE FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL START TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DECREASE ONLY
SLOWLY...SUCH THAT EVENING CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
SOUNDINGS BECOME WEAKLY CAPPED IN THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT NOT
SO IN THE EAST. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN OVER 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM FRI...THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GA SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR AIR S OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DAY ON SAT.
PEAK AFTERNOON INSTABILITY OF 1000 J/KG OR GREATER AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT SCT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY SAT AFTN. THIS
SHOULD BE THE FINAL DAY OF WARM MAXES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL THEN STEADILY SLIP SWD INTO THE REGION
SAT NIGHT AND PUSH S OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS
1025 MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER TO THE N. WEAK H5 SHORTWAVES IN
THE WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE EWD OVER THE BOUNDARY TO
ENHANCE LIFTING AT TIMES OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. COOL
CAD MAX TEMPS WILL SWING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
MEANWHILE...A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM SRN
MANITOBA THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO W TX BY LATE SUNDAY...WITH
MOIST UPGLIDE DEVELOPING WELL AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE BACKDOOR
BOUNDARY IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD YIELD SOLID CHC POPS
FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SMALL
DIURNAL RANGE ON TEMPS THROUGHOUT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM EDT FRI...A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
SHARPEN UP AS IT MOVES EWD TOWARD THE MS RIVER ON MON...POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING A CLOSED CIRCULATION NEAR OR NORTH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY
BY MON NIGHT. SRLY FLOW AND UPGLIDE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH THROUGH MON AS AN 850 MB JET FORMS AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS.
IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MUCH THE EXISTING SFC CAD LAYER
CAN SCOUR ON MON GIVEN THE RETURNING WARM SECTOR AND INCREASING SRLY
FLOW ALONG WITH A RELATIVE LULL IN UPPER FORCING. IT IS LIKELY THAT
SOME DEGREE OF CAD WILL PERSIST...AT LEAST OVER THE NRN HALF...AND
TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN FOR MON.
THE FIRST ROUND OF STRONGER...DISCRETE CELLULAR CONVECTION AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND SHARP COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY START
CLOSING IN ON THE FORECAST AREA FROM NRN GA TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE.
STRONG UPPER FOCING AHEAD OF THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE. NEARLY ALL OF THE
MODEL/ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE COMING IN LINE WITH A TUE TIMING FOR
THE SYSTEM...AND HIGH LIKELY TO LOW END CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE
FEATURED FOR THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A MAINLY AFTN
FOCUS.
THE SRLY LOW LEVEL JET WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SFC TO 3
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 50 KT TUE AFTN. ANY SEMBLANCE OF A
TRIPLE POINT LOW PRES CENTER MOVING ENE ALONG A RETREATING WEDGE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WOULD FOCUS MUCH OF THAT SHEAR IN THE SFC TO 1 KM
LAYER AND HEIGTHEN THE TORNADO THREAT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA TUE
AFTN. SOME LIMITING FACTORS FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE RELATIVELY
MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE DEEP TROUGH AND VERY DEEP
MOISTURE IN THE SOUNDINGS TO LIMIT SFC BASED CAPE. HOWEVER...DEEP
DYNAMICAL FORCING MIGHT WELL OVERCOME ANY DEFICIENCIES IN
INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL LIKELY SURGE TO NEARLY TWO INCHES IN THE BEST MOISTURE
FLUX TUE. A FOCUS OF TERRAIN FORCED PRECIPITATION COULD WELL LEAD TO
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES/TOTALS IN THE MTNS...WITH PERHAPS MORE
ISOLD/TRAINING TYPE HYDRO ISSUES OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. THE CURRENT
SEVERE/HYDRO THREAT WORDING IN THE HWO APPEARS WELL PLACED FOR TUE.
EXPECT FROPA THROUGHOUT BY TUE NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE AND DEEP LAYER DRYING ARRIVING BY WED. WINDY CONDITIONS POST
FROPA WILL LINGER THROUGH WED BEFORE THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES ON
THU AS RIDGING BECOMES DOMINANT ONCE AGAIN. BELOW NORMAL MAXES WED
WILL START TO MODERATE ON THU. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF ISOLD
FROST PROBLEMS IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE MTNS THU MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE LOW STRATUS HAS FINALLY BURNED MIXED OUT...LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS. VFR CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH A
FEW ISOLD SHRA AND TSRA POSSIBLE LATE AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED LESS CONVECTIVE ACRS THE PIEDMONT THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...SO CONFIDENCE IN A DIRECT IMPACT FROM CONVECTION IS
WANING. HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE ALL MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE 18Z TAF.
WITH THAT SAID...THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR STORMS TO BE
AROUND THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...GUIDANCE IS MORE MIXED ON WHETHER
STRATUS AND/OR FOG DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY. I HAVE OPTED TO
PUT A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED TODAY. WHATEVER
CLOUDS DEVELOP SHUD BURN OFF AGAIN SATURDAY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL BE
SWLY THRU THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN.
ELSEWHERE...BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND VIS SAT TRENDS AND THE LATEST
HIGH-RES MODELS AND RAP/NAM...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP/INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACRS THE NC MTNS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NW...AND ALSO DEVELOP ACRS THE
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. SO I WILL KEEP THE VCTS MENTIONS AT ALL
SITES...AS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA SHUD BE AROUND THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE AFTN INTO THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION SHUD WANE...BUT THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHC
DUE TO SOME ELEVATED INSTBY AND WEAK...BUT PERSISTENT SWLY UPGLIDE
FLOW. I WILL KEEP A BKN050-BKN070 MENTION AT ALL THE SITES THRU THE
OVERNIGHT. THE MID CLOUDS MAY HELP LIMIT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
STRATUS SATURDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON HOW MUCH AND IN WHAT
LOCATIONS. IT SEEMS THE BEST CHC FOR STRATUS WILL BE TO THE
EAST...SO I WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE UPSTATE TAFS. AS FOR VALLEY FOG
IN KAVL...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. I WILL PUT MVFR VSBY FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK...RESTRICIONS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY IN A MOIST AIR MASS
THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVING TUESDAY WILL BRING A
THREAT OF VERY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 99% HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 98%
KGSP HIGH 99% HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 91%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 86%
KHKY HIGH 92% HIGH 85% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 99% HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 91%
KAND HIGH 93% HIGH 100% HIGH 83% HIGH 91%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...ARK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
348 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW
MEXICO. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH NORTH WINDS
GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH. WINDS WILL DECREASE GRADUALLY THIS EVENING AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND LAST INTO THE MORNING BEFORE CLEARING BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY.
THIS WILL HELP KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AT
MOST LOCATIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THIS AREA INTO THE EVENING.
PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID
OCTOBER.
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION THIS
WEEKEND AS A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE PLAIN BY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL FORCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE PANHANDLES
LEADING TO A COMPLICATED AND POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON
TIMING/POSITION RESULTING IN INCREASED CONFIDENCE ON WINDY
CONDITIONS. DURING THE AFTERNOON DEEP MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN PEAK
WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE BEHIND THE EASTWARD MIXING DRYLINE
AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK.
LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COMBINED
WITH RATHER INTENSE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL RESULT IN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLES
LATE SUNDAY. DEEPER MORE INTENSE CONVECTION SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF
THE PANHANDLES WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS
SHOWN BY THE MODELS. NEVERTHELESS SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON
THE FINER DETAILS SUCH AS THE POSITION OF THE DRYLINE AND QUALITY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WHICH HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR STORM SEVERITY.
THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY
WINDS LATER SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE TRENDED WIND SPEEDS UP
FOR BOTH PRE-FRONTAL AND POST-FRONTAL.
DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE THAT APPEARS
EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR
THE PANHANDLES. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM AND CONSEQUENTLY IS FASTER WITH MOVING THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA. ASIDE FROM SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
TEMPERATURE FORECAST...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES IN THE LONG
TERM. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
BRB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY/S PATTERN WILL PROMOTE WARM/DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES WITH SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING 20 MPH /20 FT/.
HOWEVER CONTINUED MOIST/GREEN VEGETATION WITH NEAR NORMAL ERC/S
DURING THE ONGOING GROWING SEASON WILL PRECLUDE A SIGNIFICANT
WILDLAND FIRE RISK.
LINDLEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 41 62 47 82 42 / 10 5 5 10 20
BEAVER OK 41 62 44 77 47 / 20 5 5 30 50
BOISE CITY OK 39 64 46 77 42 / 10 5 5 30 40
BORGER TX 44 62 52 82 47 / 10 5 5 10 30
BOYS RANCH TX 44 66 50 84 46 / 10 5 0 10 20
CANYON TX 45 64 48 81 45 / 10 5 5 10 20
CLARENDON TX 44 63 46 83 48 / 20 5 5 10 30
DALHART TX 41 63 46 83 42 / 10 0 5 10 30
GUYMON OK 42 63 46 78 46 / 10 5 5 30 40
HEREFORD TX 43 64 48 82 46 / 5 5 5 10 20
LIPSCOMB TX 44 61 47 78 49 / 20 5 5 30 50
PAMPA TX 42 60 49 80 45 / 10 5 5 20 30
SHAMROCK TX 45 63 47 81 51 / 20 5 5 20 50
WELLINGTON TX 48 64 49 82 54 / 20 5 5 20 40
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1116 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2014
09Z SFC CHART DEPICTS 1028MB SFC HI OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE SIMON. IN BETWEEN WINDS HAVE SHIFTED FROM THE NE LAST
EVENING TO SE THIS MORNING. THIS IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR STRATUS
ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS AND FOG WHERE THIS CLOUD DECK INTERCEPTS THE
HIER TERRAIN. THATS WHAT IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
500-1500 FT CEILINGS OVR THE ERN PLAINS AND AREAS OF FOG OVR THE
INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT. PROGD SOUNDINGS AND LATEST HRRR DATA SHOW THIS
AREA OF CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON AT LEAST THRU EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THE FOG SHOULD LIFT OVER THE SUMMIT BEFORE THAT TIME. RAIN
FROM SIMON HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP THIS FAR NORTH AND EXPECT LITTLE
IF ANY ADDL PRECIP THRU THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH DID LEAVE SOME LOW
CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT ERN FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING
SHOULD A WEAK SHOWER OR POCKET OF DRIZZLE DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
HOWEVER FOR THAT TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COOL DAY AHEAD WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 50S AT MOST LOCALES. A FEW LOW 60S WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND AREAS THAT WILL CLEAR
OUT FIRST ACROSS NRN AND WRN ZONES.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROF
WHICH WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY OVERALL SHOULD BE
NICE AS PRESSURES FALL IN THE LEE. ADIABATIC DOWNSLOPE WARMING
SHOULD AID IN BOOSTING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE 60S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...WITH 70S OVR
THE ERN PLAINS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING...THOUGH THE STRONGEST WILL BE NR ARLINGTON WHERE
GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. BOTH THE NAM/GFS ALSO PAINT A
SMALL RIBBON OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE PRESSURE TROF...EVEN
DEVELOPING AN UPDRAFT OVR ERN LARAMIE....KIMBALL AND CHEYENNE
COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
OTHERWISE...MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
FRONT...NOW NOT UNTIL AROUND 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING FOR EAST-CENTRAL
WYOMING AND 9 AM TO REACH THE WY/CO STATELINE. PRECIP WILL LAG THE
SFC FRONT BY 50-75 MILES DEVELOPING IN AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. AS SUCH PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH INTO EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING AND THE NRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BETWEEN 6-9 AM AND THRU THE
REST OF THE AREA BY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO
AROUND 7500 FEET FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
ELEVATIONS ABOVE THIS AREA MAY SEE A QUICK FEW INCHES OF SNOW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE SYSTEM DO NOT ANTICIPATE
IT TO NECESSITATE A WINTER HIGHLIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY....WITH DRYING CONDITIONS SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE 20 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S WEST AND 50S EAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE RATHER QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON MON. 700MB
TEMPS ARE STILL COOL AT AROUND -1C AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN ACROSS THE PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING.
TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN MON.
SOUTHWESTERLY LLVL WINDS STRENGTHEN ON WED AS A LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER
IDAHO. IT WILL BE WINDY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WED WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST
DAY WITH 700MB TEMPS OF 6-10C. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON
THURS REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES OVER
WY. THE GFS IS DEEPER AND WOULD RESULT IN A BIGGER COOLDOWN ALONG
WITH STRONGER POST FRONTAL WESTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY. THE ECMWF
ON THE OTHER HAND LIFTS THE TROUGH OVER MT WITH LESS COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND WEAKER WINDS. BOTH SOLNS ARE DRY BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2014
MODEST MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW LIKELY TO KEEP LIFR TO IFR CIGS AROUND
KCYS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SLOW RISE THROUGH MVFR TO VFR AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. ELSEWHERE OVER THE AREA VFR EXPECTED THROUGH
SAT MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2014
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL AGAIN BE MINIMAL TODAY AS COOL
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS LIMIT ANY ATMOSPHERIC DRYING.
SATURDAY WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY SOMEWHAT HEIGHTEN DAY OF FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND 70S...WHILE
HUMIDITIES FALL TO CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT. WINDS WILL ALSO TURN BREEZY
TURNING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING LOCATIONS AS WELL.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE DISTRICTS SUNDAY MORNING
PRODUCING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN