Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/09/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
254 PM MST TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...DECAYING TROPICAL SYSTEM SIMON WILL BRING AN
INCREASED RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA PRIMARILY
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS BY
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH MARKEDLY DRIER CONDITIONS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SIMON...NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH IS ABOUT 120 KM W OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
AS OF THE LAST ADVISORY BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF SIMON RESULTED IN HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS STREAMING INTO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD NOW APPROACHING SOUTHERN
WYOMING ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. AT THE SURFACE...24-HR DEWPOINT
CHANGES OF +5 TO +10 DEG F ARE NOTED THIS HOUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE MOISTENING OF THE LOW AND UPPER-LEVELS IS
QUITE APPARENT IN THIS MORNING`S 12Z KTWC SOUNDING...WHICH SHOWS A
PW VALUE OF 0.85 INCHES...UP 0.46 INCHES FROM 12Z MONDAY. RECENT
SATELLITE-DERIVED PW VALUES ARE EVEN HIGHER THIS HOUR...AROUND ONE
INCH EXCEPT ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES.
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS TWO AREAS OF PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FIRST...ENTERING S CALIFORNIA AND SW ARIZONA IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MAIN SLUG OF MOISTURE AND ASCENT FROM WHAT REMAINS OF SIMON. THE
SECOND IS AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH HAVE
FIRED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF TUCSON AMID LIMITED
BUOYANCY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND AND ISOLATED STORM ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP MOVES NORTH OUT OF
MEXICO. THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE OF THE CURRENT SITUATION AND BACKS UP THIS CURRENT FORECAST
THINKING WELL.
THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT DRIVING
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUCSON AND POINTS SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST WHILE THE GFS HAS RECENTLY SHIFTED ITS FOCUS SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. THE 12Z CMC...ON THE OTHER
HAND...PAINTS AN AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH THIS EVENT.
THINKING IS THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS DEEPER
MOISTURE ENTERS THE REGION AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IMPROVE WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW WITH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY FROM ROUGHLY NEAR TUCSON WEST...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN MANAGE
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. BASED ON COORDINATION WITH
EL PASO...HAVE DECREASED POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERNMOST ZONES SINCE IT
APPEARS THEY WILL BE DISPLACED TOO FAR FROM MID AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT TOMORROW.
STORM TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR THIS EVENT ARE GENERALLY A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH FOR THE EASTERN VALLEYS...AROUND ONE INCH ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES...AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE MAIN FOCUS STILL APPEARS TO BE ROUGHLY FROM TUCSON AND POINTS
WEST. BASED ON THESE FORECAST STORM TOTALS AND THE DURATION OF THE
EVENT...A WIDESPREAD FLOOD EVENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME
...BUT ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING
CONCERNS.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS
EASTWARD...ALTHOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE NECESSITATES KEEPING CHANCE
AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 08/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGHOUT...WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS ON THE INCREASE AS
WELL. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY
NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN FROM KOLS TO THE EAST. OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL POTENTIALLY IMPACT ALL AREAS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG A
LINE FROM KTUS TO KOLS AND AREAS TO THE WEST. BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO LATE WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWER CHANCES AND RISING DEWPOINTS WILL BE THE RULE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD
INTO ARIZONA. PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHOWERY IN NATURE...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FILTER
BACK INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND WILL LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST
MID NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN SOME GUSTY WINDS DUE TO THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
908 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
OVERNIGHT FORECAST GRIDS UPDATED TO REFLECT TRENDS OFFERED BY THE
HRRR AND RAP MODELS. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE (700 MB TEMP DATA
RESEMBLES AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT) AND JET STREAK DYNAMICS HAS
ALLOWED MID LEVEL ALTOSTRATUS CLOUD TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. DEEPER MOISTURE STILL RESIDES IN ARIZONA WITH SOME
LIGHT PCPN OCCURRING NORTH OF I40...WITH BUT WINSLOW ASOS HAVING
OBSERVED A RAIN SHOWER EARLIER IN THE EVENING. THIS IS TYPICALLY
AN INDICATOR THAT SOME RAIN WILL REACH MONUMENT VALLEY AND THE SAN
JUAN RIVER BASIN SOON. THE HRRR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN REACH MONUMENT
VALLEY BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND THE SWRN COLORADO VALLEYS SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. HOWEVER THIS IS NOT A SOLID RAIN SHIELD...RATHER THE
SHOWERS ARRIVE IN BITS AND PIECES BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE SRN
PORTION IN EARNEST ON THURSDAY. LOWERED THE OVERNIGHT RAIN THREAT
ALONG THE I70 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AS THE
ARIZONA UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES TOWARD SW COLORADO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
PLENTY MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE POURING NORTHEAST ACROSS
ARIZONA AND INTO SOUTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO. 700 MB
TEMPS STAY VERY WARM AS THIS MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH SW AND CENTRAL
CO AND THE CO NORTHERN MTS THROUGH THU NIGHT..BELIEVE SNOW ACCUMS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 9500 FEET AND HIGHER. CLOUDS AND POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY FOR LATE TONIGHT...THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE FOCUS BEING EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO EAGLE TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS. RIGHT NOW THE
PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER AZ HAVE NOT BEEN THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO HAVE
TEMPERED MY PRECIP AMOUNTS TO REPRESENT LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP
WITH LOCALIZED HEAVIER PRECIP POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY FRIDAY AS THE
GENERAL FLOW CHANGES TO NORTHWESTERLY. PRONE AREAS IN THIS WIND
REGIME...SUCH AS STEAMBOAT SPRINGS...THE SURROUNDING NORTHCENTRAL
DIVIDE MOUNTAINS AND VAIL PASS... MAY HAVE CONTINUING RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. ELSEWHERE WILL BE DRYING OUT FRIDAY AND BY
SATURDAY...NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.
WE ARE KEEPING AN EYE ON A POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER ON
SUNDAY...THOUGH MODEL CONSISTENCIES ARE LEAVING US WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THE CORRECT SOLUTION. THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SOUTH INTO THE NORTHCENTRAL PART OF COLORADO DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY WITH BRISK AUTUMN AIR BEHIND IT SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SOLUTION. HOWEVER... THE EC MODEL BRINGS A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM
WITH MORE THAN ONE HALF INCH QPFS POSSIBLE AND SNOW LEVEL DOWN TO
7500 FT. IN CHOOSING EITHER SOLUTION...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT MANY
AREAS WILL REACH A HARD FREEZE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ONCE A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY PASSES AND SKIES CLEAR TOWARD
MORNING. THE AMOUNT OF POPS AND QPFS WILL HAVE TO BE TUNED AS
FUTURE MODELS BRING BETTER CONSISTENCY TO THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL ON MONDAY BUT REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
SOUTHEAST UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO...WIDESPREAD VFR THROUGH 09Z
TONIGHT...THEN LOWERING CEILINGS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF IFR IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY IMPACT TAF SITES ABOVE 7500 FEET. SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE AND BECOME WIDESPREAD BY 18Z TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED
-TSRA OVER SW COLORADO. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 12K FEET.
NORTHEAST UTAH AND THE NORTHWEST COLORADO CORNER (OR NORTHWEST OF
A LINE FROM KPUC TO KCAG)...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
CEILINGS ABOVE THE RIDGES.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...PF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
830 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
LOOPING SHOWING A SLOW SOUTHWARD DRIFT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE PENINSULA TO THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE STATE. THE LATEST RUC13 TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS WERE
INDICATING DECREASING DEPTH OF MOISTURE IN THE SURFACE TO 700MB
(10000 FEET) LAYER. THIS DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR PRECIPITATION ON
LAND. LAST COUPLE OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING SOME MARINE
LAYER STRATOCUMULUS APPROACHING THE COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTH BUT
THESE WERE DISAPPEARING AS THEY NEARED THE COASTLINE. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO IF ANY OF THE STRATOCUMULUS MAKES IT TO THE
BEACHES BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE...0.01 INCHES OR
MORE...RAIN OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
60S/AROUND 70 FROM VOLUSIA TO NORTH BREVARD AND THE INTERIOR
COUNTIES...ALSO WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 SOUTH BREVARD TO SAINT LUCIE
COUNTY. LOWS EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 SOUTH BREVARD TO SAINT LUCIE AND
MARTIN COUNTY SHOULD BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
THE EVENING UPDATE TO THE ZONES WILL BE TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF
RAIN AND WIND GRIDS.
PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION
CURRENT-TONIGHT...JUST ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...ENERGY ALOFT AND
SURFACE HEATING TO SQUEEZE OUT ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER...ESPECIALLY KMLB THRU LATE AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS WILL
STILL REMAIN DRY. WILL COVER PRESENT ACTIVITY WITH PRE-FIRST PERIOD
WORDING FOR AFTERNOON ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE OR SLIDE OFF INTO WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA BY SUNSET. AN
EAST-WEST HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM AGAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN LOW-LYING OR PRONE AREAS DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS AND
EXPECTED REDUCED CLOUDINESS. MILD TEMPERATURES AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THU-FRI...UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO CREST OVER THE SE US ON FRIDAY
WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA WITH RESULTING EAST FLOW TO PERSIST. PCP WATER VALUES REMAIN
FAIRLY HIGH BUT WITH ABSENCE OF STRONG BNDRY INTERACTIONS AND
INSTABILITY...CONVECTIVE CHANCES TO REMAIN BELOW WDLY SCT
VALUES...AROUND 10 PCT. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
SAT-TUE...PROGRESSIVE ANTICYCLONE OVERSPREADS THE EASTERN CONUS FROM
THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND TO BRIDGE AN OTHERWISE SUBTLE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID-SECTION. THE LOCAL RESULT IS A
CONTINUATION OF ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. DEEPENING MOISTURE
ENCROACHES FROM THE SOUTH TO BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS NEAR
TREASURE COAST SAT AND THEN REST OF THE AREA INTO SUN. POPS STILL
LESS THAN 24 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. FLOW WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE SE
EARLY NEXT WEEK TO MODESTLY BUMP UP MOISTURE AND POPS TO 30 PERCENT
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF ORLANDO AND CAPE CANAVERAL. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...WITH A COAST-INLAND DISTRIBUTION. LOWS A
BIT WARMER INTO THE 70S WITH MARINE INFLUENCE...AND WARMEST NEAR THE
COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR THROUGH LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING WHEN PATCHY FOG POSSIBILITY. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...BUOYS WERE RECORDING NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS AND 1 TO 2 FOOT SEAS OUT TO 120NM. SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS NORTH
OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...NORTHEAST EAST WINDS TO 10 KNOTS AND 1 TO 2
FOOT SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
CURRENT-TONIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS
SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. NE/ENE WINDS OF 8-13 KTS
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE OVER THE OPEN
WATERS WITH AROUND 2 FT NEAR SHORE.
THU-SUN...LOCAL NE-E WINDS AOB 15KTS THRU THE PERIOD AS ONSHORE FLOW
WELL SUPPORTED BY SFC RIDGING TO THE NORTH. SEAS 2-3 FT BECOMING 3-4
FT BY LATE THU INTO FRI AND UP TO 5 FT WELL OFFSHORE FROM SEBASTIAN
SOUTH TO JUPITER (BEYOND 20 NM). A FEW MARINE SHOWERS FOR THE
WEEKEND INCREASING INTO SUN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 68 87 71 88 / 10 10 10 10
MCO 69 88 69 90 / 10 10 10 10
MLB 71 86 73 88 / 10 10 0 10
VRB 72 87 74 88 / 20 10 10 10
LEE 69 89 69 91 / 10 10 10 10
SFB 69 89 70 90 / 10 10 10 10
ORL 71 89 71 90 / 10 10 10 10
FPR 72 86 73 87 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
IMPACT WX...LASCODY
PUBLIC......ULRICH
FORECASTS...WIMMER
...PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...
LATE WEEK...BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS SHOWN MIGRATING SEWRD FROM
THE OH/TN VALLEYS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LONGWAVE TROUGH.
ONSHORE FLOW WL DEVELOP LOCALLY AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHALLOW MOISTURE WL PRODUCE SOME LOW TOPPED MARINE SHOWERS MOVING
ASHORE MAINLY FROM THE CAPE SWD TO THE TREASURE COAST.
EXTENDED...LIGHT TO GENTLE ONSHORE CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE WEEK
ALONG WITH MODEST MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS NEAR
THE COAST AND INLAND. SHOULD HGHT FALLS OCCUR OVER THE CARIB WELL
SOUTH OF THE STATE ONSHORE WIND TENDENCY LOCALLY MAY BE A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. VEERING FLOW WOULD LIKELY INCREASE
CHCS OF SHOWERS AS WELL GIVEN HIGHER MOISTURE SUPPLY.
&&
.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDS. BKN CLOUDS FL150-200 BECOMING SCT OVERNIGHT.
WDLY SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND
TREASURE COAST THROUGH 08/02Z. ADDITIONAL ISOLD SHRA OVER ATLC
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW BRUSHING TREASURE COAST. HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BRING PATCHY MVFR FOG...ESPECIALLY IN INLAND LOCATIONS.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS INTO WED WITH ISOLD SHRA VCNTY LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AND TREASURE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW 5-10KTS THROUGH
EVENING HOURS WILL BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND THEN BACK
EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS RIDGE AXIS BECOMES MORE WEST-EAST
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. GRADIENT EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY AS A
RESULT...WITH SPEEDS CLOSER TO 10KTS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS
2-3FT WITH A CHOPPY 4FT DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF STREAM AS WINDS
ALIGN TO COUNTER THE NORTHERN FLOWING STREAM.
WED-SUN...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL REMAIN SITUATED EAST-WEST
NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT. WIND SPEEDS MAINLY AOB 15 KTS
BUT THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OR TWO WELL OFFSHORE/SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRONGER WITH 15-18 KT WIND
SPEEDS POSSIBLE. SEAS IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE SHOWN COMMON OVER THE OPEN
WATERS WITH AROUND 2 FT NEAR SHORE. HEIGHTS RISING TO AROUND 4-5 FT
LATE FRI AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 68 87 67 87 / 10 10 10 10
MCO 69 90 67 89 / 10 10 10 10
MLB 71 87 71 86 / 10 10 10 10
VRB 70 88 71 87 / 20 10 10 10
LEE 69 90 67 89 / 10 10 10 10
SFB 69 90 68 89 / 10 10 10 10
ORL 71 90 70 89 / 10 10 10 10
FPR 70 86 71 87 / 20 20 10 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM/IMPACT WEATHER....SEDLOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
415 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.CURRENTLY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES EXTENDS ACROSS ERN GA WITH A SFC
TROUGH OVER THE WRN ATLC ABOUT 80 MILES OFFSHORE. RADAR SHOWS A
FEW SHOWERS NEAR THIS TROUGH BUT WILL LIKELY STAY JUST E OF THE
MARINE ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS ARE HOLD MAINLY IN THE 60S
UNDER A CANOPY OF CIRRUS. ANTICIPATE SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG OVER
INLAND SE GA BASED ON CURRENT SFC OBS AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE.
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SE CONUS EARLY
TODAY WILL SHIFT EWD AND OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WHILE
LINGERING STILL ACROSS N CENTRAL FL THIS EVENING. PLENTIFUL UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TODAY WILL PIVOT E AND CLEAR
ACROSS MOST OF SE GA IN THE AFTN. SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ALSO AVAILABLE FOR SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BUT SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
SHOULD PREVENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. A SLIGHT EXCEPTION MAY BE
ACROSS MARION...PUTNAM AND FLAGLER WHERE SREF AND RAP INDICATE A
STRAY SHOWER BUT THINK PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE INTO
THE FCST. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR IN PLACE TO INHIBIT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S...AND STAYED CLOSE TO A
BLEND OF MODEL CONSENSUS OR A DEG OR SO BELOW THE BLEND.
TONIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MORE CLEAR AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCD
CIRRUS SHIELD PASSES WELL E OF THE AREA THOUGH MAY STILL SEE SOME
THIN CIRRUS STREAMING IN ON NW FLOW. TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER
60S MOST LOCATIONS. CALM WINDS...FAIRLY DECENT RADIATION INVERSION
AND ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD EARLY
MORNING.
WEDNESDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSES IN OVER NRN CENTRAL
FL WITH HIGH PRES AT SFC OVER SRN GA AND NRN FL. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH SE GA WITH A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF
IT. NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT RAIN SO WILL KEEP
AREA RAIN-FREE ATTM. MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.
INCREASED THICKNESSES AND LESS CLOUD COVER SHOULD ENABLE WARMER
HIGHS...INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAKENING BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER SOUTHEAST GA AS
LOW AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS OVER OUR REGION. MID AND HIGH
ALTITUDE CLOUDINESS DRIFTING THROUGH OUR REGION IN A NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION ON THURSDAY
MORNING DESPITE CALM WINDS AND SLOWLY INCREASING DEWPOINTS. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 60S AT THE COAST.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL BECOME
ANCHORED OVER OUR REGION...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT
IN LIGHT NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS DEVELOPING BY THURS
AFTERNOON...WITH GRADUALLY DEEPENING ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA ON THURS AFTERNOON...BUT
A SUPPRESSED ATMOSPHERE ARGUES FOR SILENT 10% POPS IN THE FORECAST
GRIDS FOR THESE LOCATIONS. DEEPENING ONSHORE WINDS MAY DEVELOP A FEW
COASTAL SHOWERS BY LATE FRI NIGHT...WHICH COULD ADVECT INTO THE
NORTHEAST FL COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARDS SUNRISE ON SAT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY PATTERN TO
PREVAIL...WITH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG PROBABILITIES
INCREASING FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO...WITH UPPER 80S INLAND. ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S AT THE BEACHES. EXPECT LOWS INLAND TO FALL TO THE
LOW/MID 60S AS WINDS BECOME CALM AFTER SUNSET...WHILE ONSHORE WINDS
KEEP LOWS NEAR 70 FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
RIDGING ALOFT WITH ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND LOCALLY.
ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
ADVECTING INTO INLAND NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. COVERAGE IN THESE AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS INLAND REACHING THE UPPER 80S...WHILE ONSHORE
WINDS KEEP COASTAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. GRADUAL MOISTENING WILL
RESULT IN LOWS SLOWLY WARMING EACH NIGHT...WITH MID 60S EXPECTED
INLAND AND LOWER 70S AT THE COAST. ENHANCED LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG PROBABILITIES WILL PERSIST FOR INLAND LOCATIONS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO DELAY THE TIMING OF THE NEXT
TROUGH ALOFT/FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING OUR REGION UNTIL AT LEAST
LATE TUES. LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE OF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP A DIURNAL PATTERN OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN PLACE FOR MON...WITH MORNING COVERAGE NEAR THE
COAST...SHIFTING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. A COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGHING SHOULD APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES BY LATE TUES...AND WE DEPICTED SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES IN THE FORECAST GRIDS REGION-WIDE. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CONTINUE AS OUR REGION REMAINS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST LATE TUES.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AT OR ABOVE 25000 FT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. SOME SCT CU
EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE AFTN BUT WILL BE ABOVE MVFR FLIGHT LEVEL.
&&
.MARINE...RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT ABOUT 10 KT OR LESS
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGH PRES AT SFC IN CONTROL. SEAS AROUND 2 TO
3 FEET. A WEAK COOL FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA WED NIGHT AND THU
BUT LARGELY DISSIPATES NEAR SRN GA. SFC HIGH PRES RE-BUILDS N OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH PREVAILING ELY FLOW EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME
FROM A INCREASED ELY WIND FETCH.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW TO MODERATE RISK TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TIDES...ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO PERIGEE AND
FULL MOON. NOTED WIDE TIDAL RANGES OF ABOUT 8.7 FEET ALONG THE SE
GA COAST THIS MORNING...ABOUT 6.2 FT NEAR MAYPORT. WITH NO MEANINGFUL
WIND FORCING TO ENHANCE WATER LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO
STATEMENTS ARE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 84 60 88 63 / 0 0 10 10
SSI 81 66 84 68 / 0 0 10 10
JAX 84 62 86 65 / 0 0 10 10
SGJ 83 66 84 68 / 10 0 10 10
GNV 85 60 88 63 / 10 10 10 10
OCF 86 62 88 64 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHASHY/NELSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1020 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2014
.UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED SO HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE
UNTIL 06Z FOR THE WESTERN ZONES...THEN NO POPS UNTIL MORNING. NO
CHANGES OTHERWISE.
41
&&
.PREVIOUS...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
JUST AS SHORT TERM MODELS HAD BEEN PROJECTING...INSTABILITY AXIS
PER SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS SET UP FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH WEST
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THEN THROUGH MACON. THIS AXIS IS CHARACTERIZED
BY CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2500 J/KG AND 3000 J/KG AND HAS BEEN
SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FOLLOWING THE BOUNDARY THAT WAS SPAWNED
FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION. SHORT TERM REFLECTIVITY MODELS HAVE
REALLY BACKED OFF ON POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
CENTRAL GEORGIA LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE HRRR ONLY SHOWING
HINTS OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW. DESPITE THIS...STICKING WITH LOW
END CHANCE IN THE GRIDS GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY AXIS AS
WELL AS BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD ACT AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM AFTER
21Z. ONLY ITEM MISSING IS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND IN FACT WE ARE
IN AN AREA OF GENERALLY DOWNWARD MOTION THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE
OF MORNING DISTURBANCE BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE NEUTRAL IN NATURE BY
THIS EVENING.
LESS MOISTURE NOTED IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR TONIGHT SO MODELS NOT
PEGGING NEAR AS MUCH ON LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL. THERE IS SOME GROUND
MOISTURE MODELS ARE TRYING TO RESOLVE SO THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE
PATCHY FOG TO DEAL WITH OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
TWO MORE DISTURBANCES IN STORE FOR THURSDAY...THE FIRST LOOKS TO
BE IN THE MORNING AND REMAINING LARGELY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SO EXPECTING LIMITED IMPACTS FROM THAT ONE. THE SECOND MOVES
THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND SPAN MOST OF THE STATE PER THE GFS SO
A LITTLE BETTER CHANCES WITH THAT ONE ALTHOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY AT BEST.
DEESE
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED STARTS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BUT WITH DEEPENING
SHORTWAVE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...SPREADING PACIFIC TROPICAL
MOISTURE EAST TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. LOOKS LIKE A
PROLONGED WET PERIOD TO OUR NORTH BUT FOR NOW ONLY MINOR IMPACTS
IN NORTH GEORGIA. OVER THE WEEKEND...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES SLIDES EAST AND DAMS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HARD TO TELL
AT THIS POINT HOW FAR SOUTH THAT DAMMING WILL EXTEND BUT IT COULD
ACTUALLY BE KIND OF COOL AND CLOUDY ON SUNDAY WITH THE HYBRID
DAMMING. GFS A LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE FOR THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEK...
TRENDING A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF BUT STILL NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG. ECMWF CONTINUES TO PUSH A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH A STRONG FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS NOT AS STRONG AND QUITE A BIT FASTER...
WITH THE FRONT PROGGED TO AFFECT US MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY SO NO CHANGES TO THAT PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED AT THIS TIME. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO 4TH AND 5TH PERIODS TO
REFRESH WITH NEW DATA. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
TDP
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2014/
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST TRENDS AS THE LATEST
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUN REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW STARTS OUT FAIRLY FLAT
AND REMAINS SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
TO SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD
CONCERNING THE DEPTH AND SHARPNESS OF THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF
THE PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER BOTH SHOW OUR REGION
COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WITH GEORGIA JUST SOUTH OF THE MORE ACTIVE
WESTERLY FLOW...BOTH MODELS KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EVEN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREAD INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA...
BETTER CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH.
MODEL INSTABILITY VARIES SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT EACH DAY
SHOWS AT LEAST MARGINAL VALUES UNTIL AROUND WEDNESDAY SO I HAVE KEPT
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
20
&&
AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS STILL FORMING ON OLD BOUNDARY AND MOVING GENERALLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE ATL AND OTHER METRO TAF SITES
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP WATCH AND AMEND
IF NEEDED. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY FEW OR SCT035
MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND SCT040-045 AFTER 14Z. ISOLATED VISIBILITIES 3
TO 5SM 08Z-13Z. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST AFTER 15Z THURSDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TSRA THREAT THIS EVENING. HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 58 85 61 82 / 10 5 20 20
ATLANTA 65 84 65 82 / 20 30 20 20
BLAIRSVILLE 53 78 56 78 / 5 20 20 30
CARTERSVILLE 58 86 61 83 / 10 20 20 30
COLUMBUS 66 89 65 87 / 30 5 10 10
GAINESVILLE 60 82 62 80 / 10 20 20 30
MACON 63 88 64 86 / 30 20 40 10
ROME 58 86 60 84 / 20 30 20 30
PEACHTREE CITY 59 85 60 83 / 20 30 30 20
VIDALIA 67 89 67 86 / 30 5 10 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...41
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
740 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
JUST AS SHORT TERM MODELS HAD BEEN PROJECTING...INSTABILITY AXIS
PER SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS SET UP FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH WEST
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THEN THROUGH MACON. THIS AXIS IS CHARACTERIZED
BY CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2500 J/KG AND 3000 J/KG AND HAS BEEN
SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FOLLOWING THE BOUNDARY THAT WAS SPAWNED
FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION. SHORT TERM REFLECTIVITY MODELS HAVE
REALLY BACKED OFF ON POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
CENTRAL GEORGIA LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE HRRR ONLY SHOWING
HINTS OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW. DESPITE THIS...STICKING WITH LOW
END CHANCE IN THE GRIDS GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY AXIS AS
WELL AS BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD ACT AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM AFTER
21Z. ONLY ITEM MISSING IS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND IN FACT WE ARE
IN AN AREA OF GENERALLY DOWNWARD MOTION THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE
OF MORNING DISTURBANCE BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE NEUTRAL IN NATURE BY
THIS EVENING.
LESS MOISTURE NOTED IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR TONIGHT SO MODELS NOT
PEGGING NEAR AS MUCH ON LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL. THERE IS SOME GROUND
MOISTURE MODELS ARE TRYING TO RESOLVE SO THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE
PATCHY FOG TO DEAL WITH OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
TWO MORE DISTURBANCES IN STORE FOR THURSDAY...THE FIRST LOOKS TO
BE IN THE MORNING AND REMAINING LARGELY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SO EXPECTING LIMITED IMPACTS FROM THAT ONE. THE SECOND MOVES
THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND SPAN MOST OF THE STATE PER THE GFS SO
A LITTLE BETTER CHANCES WITH THAT ONE ALTHOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY AT BEST.
DEESE
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED STARTS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BUT WITH DEEPENING
SHORTWAVE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...SPREADING PACIFIC TROPICAL
MOISTURE EAST TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. LOOKS LIKE A
PROLONGED WET PERIOD TO OUR NORTH BUT FOR NOW ONLY MINOR IMPACTS
IN NORTH GEORGIA. OVER THE WEEKEND...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES SLIDES EAST AND DAMS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HARD TO TELL
AT THIS POINT HOW FAR SOUTH THAT DAMMING WILL EXTEND BUT IT COULD
ACTUALLY BE KIND OF COOL AND CLOUDY ON SUNDAY WITH THE HYBRID
DAMMING. GFS A LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE FOR THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEK...
TRENDING A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF BUT STILL NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG. ECMWF CONTINUES TO PUSH A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH A STRONG FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS NOT AS STRONG AND QUITE A BIT FASTER...
WITH THE FRONT PROGGED TO AFFECT US MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY SO NO CHANGES TO THAT PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED AT THIS TIME. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO 4TH AND 5TH PERIODS TO
REFRESH WITH NEW DATA. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
TDP
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2014/
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST TRENDS AS THE LATEST
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUN REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW STARTS OUT FAIRLY FLAT
AND REMAINS SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
TO SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD
CONCERNING THE DEPTH AND SHARPNESS OF THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF
THE PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER BOTH SHOW OUR REGION
COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WITH GEORGIA JUST SOUTH OF THE MORE ACTIVE
WESTERLY FLOW...BOTH MODELS KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EVEN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREAD INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA...
BETTER CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH.
MODEL INSTABILITY VARIES SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT EACH DAY
SHOWS AT LEAST MARGINAL VALUES UNTIL AROUND WEDNESDAY SO I HAVE KEPT
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
20
&&
AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS STILL FORMING ON OLD BOUNDARY AND MOVING GENERALLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE ATL AND OTHER METRO TAF SITES
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP WATCH AND AMEND
IF NEEDED. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY FEW OR SCT035
MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND SCT040-045 AFTER 14Z. ISOLATED VISIBILITIES 3
TO 5SM 08Z-13Z. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST AFTER 15Z THURSDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TSRA THREAT THIS EVENING. HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 58 85 61 82 / 10 5 20 20
ATLANTA 65 84 65 82 / 20 30 20 20
BLAIRSVILLE 53 78 56 78 / 5 20 20 30
CARTERSVILLE 58 86 61 83 / 10 20 20 30
COLUMBUS 66 89 65 87 / 30 5 10 10
GAINESVILLE 60 82 62 80 / 10 20 20 30
MACON 63 88 64 86 / 30 20 40 10
ROME 58 86 60 84 / 20 30 20 30
PEACHTREE CITY 59 85 60 83 / 20 30 30 20
VIDALIA 67 89 67 86 / 30 5 10 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
137 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014/
ACTIVE 500MB PATTERN THROUGH TOMORROW FOR THE CWFA. CURRENTLY...A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN ALABAMA. THIS
FEATURE HAS HELPED TO FIRE/SUSTAIN CONVECTION THAT IS MOVING
INTO NW GA THIS EVENING AND TO STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SMALL
HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH EARLIER STORMS...AND ANTICIPATE
ADDITIONAL REPORTS AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH.
MODELS DO TYPICALLY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME LATCHING ONTO THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THESE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES. EARLIER RUNS
OF THE HRRR AND WRF DID NOT INITIALIZE VERY WELL. LATER RUNS OF
THE HRRR SEEM TO HAVE INITIALIZED A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE CURRENT
FEATURE...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON LATER CONVECTION EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
DID END UP TWEAKING POPS A BIT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS MODELS SHOW
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
THAT IS CURRENTLY ANCHORED DOWN THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.
A DISTURBANCE THAT SPARKED CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH GA THIS
MORNING HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD... BUT ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
THAT IS CURRENTLY SPARKING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW
MOVING BACK ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH GA... TO INCLUDE THE FAR NORTHERN
METRO AREA. LOCAL HIRES MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON ANY OF
THESE DISTURBANCES... BUT SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THIS LATEST
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH NE THIS EVENING... ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THAT COULD SPREAD MORE CONVECTION INTO NW GA
LATER TONIGHT. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY SPREAD
DOWN INTO THE ATLANTA AREA BY 9-10 AM TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE MODELS HINT AT THE DRIVING UPPER SUPPORT FINALLY
LIFTING OUT TO THE NE SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR INTO THE
EVENING. FOR NOW... WILL HOLD ONTO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL GA THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... WITH INCREASING CHANCES ACROSS NW GA
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE. WILL SPREAD THIS HIGHER
POP DOWN INTO NORTH ATLANTA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE LIFTING THE HIGHER POPS OUT LATE ON TUESDAY.
THEREFORE... EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM
ATLANTA AREA NORTHWARD FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY PUSHES EAST. THIS
DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT TO NEAR NORTH GA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... AND
WILL WARRANT HOLDING ONTO A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTH GA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
SAGS ALONG THE TN/GA STATE LINE BY 6-7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL... SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW A 5 PERCENT
CHANCE ACROSS PARTS OF NW GA INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH
INCREASING AFTERNOON CAPE AND MODERATE SHEAR VALUES AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES NOTED... JUST CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS... WITH LARGE HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER... MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN WELL UNDER
SEVER LIMITS WITH SMALL HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT INTO THE
EVENING. SPC IS HOLDING ONTO A 5 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS NW GA AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE LATER TONIGHT. HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE AS WELL...AND MAINLY ACROSS NW GA.
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER SEVERE LIMITS ACROSS THE ATLANTA METRO
AREA ON TUESDAY... BUT GENERAL THUNDER IS EXPECTED.
AS FOR TEMPS... A MAV AND MET BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD... WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS AND HIGHS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... THEN WARMER THAN NORMAL LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.
39
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT A WHOLE LOT IN THE WAY OF CHANGES FOR THE EXTENDED. THE ECMWF
ESPECIALLY IS LINGERING SOME MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING SO DID ADD SOME LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS /SHOWER WORDING ONLY/. OTHERWISE JUST A REFRESH OF DATA FOR
THE 4TH AND 5TH PERIODS...NEW BLENDS OF DEWPOINTS ARE A LITTLE
DRIER BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT. STILL SOME CONCERN ABOUT HOW WET THIS
WEEKEND MIGHT BE. ECMWF STILL KEEPS MOISTURE A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH AND THE 12Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON QPF VALUES BUT
OBVIOUSLY STILL TOO FAR OUT TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES. HAVE LEFT
POPS AT HIGH CHANCES FOR NOW. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
TDP
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014/
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN UNDERGOES A SIGNIFICANT DE-AMPLIFICATION AS WE
HEAD INTO THE THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH ESSENTIALLY ZONAL
FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE PERIOD. START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOKS MAINLY DRY BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOVE BACK IN BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AND STAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS IS TYPICAL WITH SUCH A FLAT
UPPER-LEVEL SCHEME...NO SIGNIFICANT FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO COME ALONG
BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK WAVES
RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. CENTRAL GEORGIA APPEARS MAINLY DRY
TO START THE PERIOD...BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SOME BY THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ONTO THE REGION. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH NOT SPECTACULAR...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO ACCOMPANY THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
AT THIS TIME THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR OR
INSTABILITY FOR MORE THAN GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FUTURE TRENDS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS BETTER SHEAR IS NOT TOO FAR NORTH OF THE
STATE AND LAPSE RATES DO STEEPEN A LITTLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
20
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATE TSRA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ATL AREA WITH
ATL REMAINING JUST OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN...BUT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A
VCSH. ELSEWHERE NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. COULD SEE
SOME DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH AS MOST OF THE SHOWERS/TSRA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
ATL/AHN AREAS. CSG/MCN SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH WESTERLY WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KTS...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN ATL/AHN.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF CONVECTION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.
17
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 53 77 59 82 / 20 40 20 5
ATLANTA 58 78 63 81 / 30 40 20 5
BLAIRSVILLE 51 69 57 77 / 60 60 50 20
CARTERSVILLE 55 77 60 82 / 50 60 20 10
COLUMBUS 56 82 62 85 / 20 20 5 5
GAINESVILLE 56 74 61 79 / 40 50 30 5
MACON 53 82 61 86 / 10 20 5 5
ROME 55 77 58 83 / 60 60 20 5
PEACHTREE CITY 52 79 58 83 / 20 30 10 5
VIDALIA 55 84 62 85 / 5 10 5 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
959 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
254 PM CDT
SYNOPSIS...RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AND SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH
TOMORROW. THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S. THEN THE PATTERN TURNS A BIT BUSIER WITH
MULTIPLE CHANCES OF SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY AND GOING THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO FINALLY SHIFTS EAST INTO QUEBEC
TONIGHT AND THEN CONTINUES NORTH ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO
SHIFT. WE REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LEADING TO A DRY DAY TODAY.
PRECIP MOVES IN OVERNIGHT FROM THE NW AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
MOVED POPS WELL NORTH SO THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. THE
12Z MODEL RUNS WERE MORE ROBUST WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND THE
FEATURE LINES UP RATHER WELL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JETS RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS FEATURE A LOT OF OMEGA SO THINKING
SHOWERS WILL FORM DESPITE THE DRIER LOW LEVELS. AREAS NORTH OF I-80
SHOULD BE DRY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING SOUTH OF
I-80. THE GOOD NEWS IS...THE DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS SO EXPECTING LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH NORTH OF I-80. WITH
MORE PERSISTENT RAIN EXTENDING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THINKING
RAINFALL SOUTH OF I-80 WILL BE A BIT MORE ROBUST IN THE 0.15-0.25
RANGE.
THE WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN IL THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE RAIN WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT.
FOR TEMPS...KEPT TONIGHT/S LOW TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOOKING AT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S
ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH OF I-80. CLOUD
COVER COMBINED WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S TOMORROW. THURSDAY NIGHT/S LOW WILL ALL BE BASED
ON CLOUD COVER AND FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE. OUTLYING AREAS NORTH OF
I-80 WILL COOL INTO THE MID 30S DUE TO CLEAR SKIES...WHILE AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S DUE TO CLOUD
COVER. FLOW WILL BE OFF OF THE LAKE SO AREAS ALONG THE LAKE WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THE FINAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BUT THEN QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OVER THE NE COAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING.
LOOKING A DRY END TO THIS WEEK AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. HAVE RAIN
SHIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT AND WHAT I
HAVE IN THE FORECAST MAY STILL BE TOO FAST AS THE MODELS KEEP
SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN. COULD SEE SOME FROST FRIDAY NIGHT DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH SKIES CLEAR. LOWS WEST OF A WOODSTOCK TO JOLIET LINE
WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO LOWER 30S...WITH SHELTERED AREAS POSSIBLY
GETTING CLOSE TO FREEZING. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE.
THE OTHER AREAS WILL BE AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE LAKE.
EXTENDED...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE EXACT TIMING BUT
IT LOOKS LIKE THE TROUGH WILL PASS OVERHEAD TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SURGES NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH RAIN EXPECTED
SUNDAY. COULD SEE A DRY BREAK IN THE EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN MOVING IN MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW. EXPECTING MORE RAINFALL ON MONDAY THAN SUNDAY RIGHT
NOW. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE NEXT SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH
THE LOW AND RAIN EAST...SO KEPT CHANCE POPS IN ON TUESDAY EVEN
THOUGH IT COULD BE DRY.
FOR TEMPS...STILL LOOKING BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 FARTHER SOUTH. TEMPS REACH NORMAL MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND REMAINING IN THE 60S THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE TO AROUND NORMAL IN THE 40S.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* LIGHT WEST WINDS OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 6-9KT.
* A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN MAY ARRIVE AFTER 8Z THRU 13Z.
* POSSIBLE NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP LATE THUR AFTERNOON.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
WINDS HAVE QUICKLY DIMINISHED THIS EVENING...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
AROUND 6-9KT FROM THE WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WAS QUICKLY
SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA...AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING
INCREASED CLOUDS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. FORTUNATELY WITH ABUNDANT
DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS...CIGS SHOULD LIKELY REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 7KFT AGL. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE MENTION OF PRECIP...WITH
JUST A VCSH MAINLY FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT ORD WHICH SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO NOT SEE ANY PRECIP. WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN
NORTHWEST THUR MORNING...THEN THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
THAT WINDS MAY TURN FURTHER NORTHEAST WITH A LAKE INFLUENCE FOR
MDW/ORD/GYY AFT 22Z. ELSEWHERE WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE NORTHERLY
WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 12KT.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEEDS OVERNIGHT THRU THUR MIDDAY.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST AT ORD/MDW AFT 22Z
THUR.
* MEDIUM/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP REMAINING VCSH AT MDW...AND ORD
REMAINING DRY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS REMAINING VFR.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
349 PM CDT
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND
MERGE WITH WEAKER LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY STRONG LOW OF 28.9 INCHES TO THE EAST OF
JAMES BAY BY THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY
TRACK EASTWARD. A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN RESULTING IN 25-30 KT WINDS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF
THE LAKE. AS THINGS PROGRESS EAST THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WHILE REMAINING STRONG TO THE NORTH. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO EASE SOUTH BUT LIKELY CONTINUE TO GUST TO 30 KT
ACROSS THE NORTH. WIND SPEEDS WILL EASE AND TURN NORTHERLY THURSDAY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE AS THE HIGH APPROACHES. THE HIGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD BY SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST SUNDAY. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL THEN BRING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
OR MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS SETTING UP AHEAD OF IT. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED ACROSS THE AREA INTO TUESDAY TURNING WINDS
NORTHERLY. CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE PATTERN EVOLVES BEYOND THAT IS LOW
WITH MIXED SIGNALS FROM MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
909 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
Lots of mid clouds advecting into the area this evening, with some
light pcpn seen on radar loops to the northwest across Iowa.
Initial rain should miss the area to the north, but light rain in
southern Iowa will likely reach parts of the CWA around or just
after midnight. Most of forecast looks fine, but will be making
some adjustments to the overnight lows, as some locations lower
than forecast. Update will be forthcoming.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
High pressure this evening will keep the winds light and somewhat
variable...though two systems converging on the Midwest bringing
some small chances of precip after midnight and into the morning
hours. Starting with clear skies tonight and slowly clouding up as
moisture and next chances for precip pushes into the region from the
SW. Northeastern CWA under clear skies longer and slightly cooler
as a result. In addition to the energy and moisture from the
SW...another wave moving into the area from the northwest. For a
few runs, operational models, specifically the NAM and the GFS have
divided up the precip... and so far the HRRR is trending the same
way. Wave to the NW seems to be producing precip a couple hours
sooner than the SWrn push, but either way...chances increasing into
the early morning hours.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
A complex, evolving upper level weather pattern and the proximity of
a nearly stationary frontal boundary near the Ohio Valley has led to
quite a bit of disagreement in the short and medium range models and
a lower than normal level of confidence in the forecast specifics
for the rest of this week and into early next week.
Complicating things initially are the remnants of Tropical Storm
Simon, which is currently in southern CA. The upper air network is
rather sparse in that area, so the models may be having a hard time
trying to initially latch onto the moisture associated with this
system. The GFS and NAM indicate that during much of Thursday,
isentropic lift should provide the ingredients for widespread
showers and a few thunderstorms. As the upper level forcing with
tropical storm remnants approaches late Thursday into Friday, most
of the lift appears to be focusing farther south toward the nearly
stalled out front. As a result, will keep the higher PoPs south of
Jacksonville-Mattoon-Paris line into Friday. The NAM and GFS may be
a bit overdone with the residual tropical moisture, so scaled back a
bit from the models on precipitation amounts for Thursday night into
Friday. There appears there could be a rather sharp cutoff on the
northern edge of the precipitation for Friday, and followed the
consensus of I-72 and east toward Danville for this line.
With respect to the upper level pattern for early in the weekend,
the GFS and European are not too far off by indicating the flow
backing from westerly to southwesterly. This will bring several
waves of low pressure up the front, but there are differences as to
the speed and location of these systems by Sunday into early next
week. For now will go with an extended period of showers from late
Saturday into Monday. With the progressive nature of the upper level
pattern, will tend to lean a bit more toward the GFS regarding the
ending of the rain by late Monday-very early Tuesday, instead of
continuing the rain all day Tuesday like the European model.
As would be expected with a cloudy and rather rainy forecast, will
keep temperatures below seasonal normals into early next week. A
transition to more of a zonal upper level flow pattern should result
in a trend toward more normal temperatures by the middle of next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
Complex forecast will evolve over next 6-24 hours as two separate
waves approach from the west. Initial wave over SD was producing
cooling cloud tops and scatted showers from eastern NB into MN.
As this slides SE tonight clouds will lower and thicken with
scattered showers possibly getting as far south as KPIA/KBMI
after midnight. Initially dry air in place will keep ceilings high
and showers scattered. Southern stream wave lifting NE from the
central plains will gradually spread clouds and scattered showers
in from the SW late tonight and after daybreak Thu. As this system
approaches elevated instability increases and have included VCTS
for the daytime hours. Ceilings are expected to be lowest along
the I-72 sites and have started trending these at high MVFR after
13/14Z, however some guidance indicates low MVFR possible after
17Z. There will be breaks in the precip on Thu however at this
range did not attempt to time into TAFs. Winds start off light and
variable this evening with ridge axis nearby, however as a warm
front strengthens well to the south late tonight, 5-10 E/ENE
winds will develop, and persist through 00Z/Fri.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS LINCOLN IL
701 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
HIGH PRESSURE THIS EVENING WILL KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE...THOUGH TWO SYSTEMS CONVERGING ON THE MIDWEST BRINGING
SOME SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. STARTING WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND SLOWLY CLOUDING UP AS
MOISTURE AND NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SW. NORTHEASTERN CWA UNDER CLEAR SKIES LONGER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AS A RESULT. IN ADDITION TO THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM THE
SW...ANOTHER WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. FOR A
FEW RUNS, OPERATIONAL MODELS, SPECIFICALLY THE NAM AND THE GFS HAVE
DIVIDED UP THE PRECIP... AND SO FAR THE HRRR IS TRENDING THE SAME
WAY. WAVE TO THE NW SEEMS TO BE PRODUCING PRECIP A COUPLE HOURS
SOONER THAN THE SWRN PUSH, BUT EITHER WAY...CHANCES INCREASING INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
A COMPLEX, EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN AND THE PROXIMITY OF
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY HAS LED TO
QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND
A LOWER THAN NORMAL LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST SPECIFICS
FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COMPLICATING THINGS INITIALLY ARE THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
SIMON, WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN CA. THE UPPER AIR NETWORK IS
RATHER SPARSE IN THAT AREA, SO THE MODELS MAY BE HAVING A HARD TIME
TRYING TO INITIALLY LATCH ONTO THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE GFS AND NAM INDICATE THAT DURING MUCH OF THURSDAY,
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH
TROPICAL STORM REMNANTS APPROACHES LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, MOST
OF THE LIFT APPEARS TO BE FOCUSING FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE NEARLY
STALLED OUT FRONT. AS A RESULT, WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS SOUTH OF
JACKSONVILLE-MATTOON-PARIS LINE INTO FRIDAY. THE NAM AND GFS MAY BE
A BIT OVERDONE WITH THE RESIDUAL TROPICAL MOISTURE, SO SCALED BACK A
BIT FROM THE MODELS ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THERE APPEARS THERE COULD BE A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY, AND FOLLOWED THE
CONSENSUS OF I-72 AND EAST TOWARD DANVILLE FOR THIS LINE.
WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR EARLY IN THE WEEKEND,
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF BY INDICATING THE FLOW
BACKING FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE UP THE FRONT, BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AS TO
THE SPEED AND LOCATION OF THESE SYSTEMS BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS FROM LATE
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN, WILL TEND TO LEAN A BIT MORE TOWARD THE GFS REGARDING THE
ENDING OF THE RAIN BY LATE MONDAY-VERY EARLY TUESDAY, INSTEAD OF
CONTINUING THE RAIN ALL DAY TUESDAY LIKE THE EUROPEAN MODEL.
AS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH A CLOUDY AND RATHER RAINY FORECAST, WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SHOULD RESULT
IN A TREND TOWARD MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
COMPLEX FORECAST WILL EVOLVE OVER NEXT 6-24 HOURS AS TWO SEPARATE
WAVES APPROACH FROM THE WEST. INITIAL WAVE OVER SD WAS PRODUCING
COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND SCATTED SHOWERS FROM EASTERN NB INTO MN.
AS THIS SLIDES SE TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLY GETTING AS FAR SOUTH AS KPIA/KBMI
AFTER MIDNIGHT. INITIALLY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL KEEP CEILINGS HIGH
AND SHOWERS SCATTERED. SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE LIFTING NE FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN FROM THE SW LATE TONIGHT AND AFTER DAYBREAK THU. AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES ELEVATED INSTABILITY INCREASES AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWEST ALONG
THE I-72 SITES AND HAVE STARTED TRENDING THESE AT HIGH MVFR AFTER
13/14Z, HOWEVER SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW MVFR POSSIBLE AFTER
17Z. THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE PRECIP ON THU HOWEVER AT THIS
RANGE DID NOT ATTEMPT TO TIME INTO TAFS. WINDS START OFF LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING WITH RIDGE AXIS NEARBY, HOWEVER AS A WARM
FRONT STRENGTHENS WELL TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT, 5-10 E/ENE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP, AND PERSIST THROUGH 00Z/FRI.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
309 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1049 AM CDT
FOR MORNING UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO SHOWER COVERAGE/AREAS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA AT TIMES INTO EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...THEN DRYING FROM THE
WEST. HAVE ALSO INDICATED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FROM ABOUT NOON THROUGH 4-5 PM.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT 15Z...ROUGHLY ALONG A MILWAUKEE-PERU-GALESBURG
LINE AT THIS TIME. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WAS GENERALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT JUST
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. WHILE HEAVIER MORNING SHOWERS WERE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA...ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS
NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM IOWA INTO
NORTHERN IL. SCATTERED LIGHTER SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF
THE MID-LEVEL VORT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL...HOWEVER HIGH-RES MODEL
RUNS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
AND DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION. THUS WHILE A SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...IT
APPEARS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WILL A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS. SPC
RAP-MESOANALYSIS GRAPHICS SHOW SOME WEAK MUCAPE AROUND 100 J/KG
THERE NOW...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE RAP AND THE 12Z
NAM SUPPORT MLCAPES IN THE 500-700 J/KG DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF A
PONTIAC TO VALPARAISO LINE THIS AFTERNOON. GREATER COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY END UP BEING JUST OFF TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...RAIN THREAT SHOULD END FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RATZER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
316 AM CDT
THIS WEEK LOOKS TO BE FREE OF ANY HIGH IMPACT WEATHER FOR THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SOME SMALLER CONCERNS OF SHOWERS TODAY...HOW
FAR NORTH RAIN REACHES THURSDAY...AND POTENTIALLY FROST OR FREEZE
FRIDAY NIGHT. EARLY NEXT WEEK A POSSIBLY AMPLIFYING TROUGH MAY
BRING ACTIVE AND/OR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY BUT WITH IT BEING A WEEK OUT AND GIVEN THE ALREADY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WE ARE IN MAKING IT CHALLENGING ON COMPUTER
MODELS...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS.
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...
THE STATIONARY AND MASSIVE ANOMALOUS LONG WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE FOR
THE AREA. STRONGLY CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THIS AND AN
ACTIVE NORTH PACIFIC JET IS DRIVING THE POLAR JET STREAM
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST WITH VIGOR. THIS 120-150 KT
NORTHWESTERLY JET AXIS HAS MULTIPLE SHEARED SHORT WAVE IMPULSES
RIDING ALONG IT AND FRONTOGENETICALLY INFLUENCING AN ALREADY TIGHT
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS WILL BE THE PLAYER FOR SOME RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES TODAY...INCLUDING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A DEPARTING WAVE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL IL AT 3 AM...AND ONE IMPULSE OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. WHILE THE FIRST WAVE WILL HAVE MUCH BETTER COVERAGE
OF RAIN...IT WILL BE EXITING BY 9-10 AM OR SO. THE SECOND WAVE
WILL DROP OVER THE AREA DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THIS IS
FAIRLY MOISTURE-STARVED AND ITS ZONE OF FORCING IS NARROW...SO
ONLY HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THIS MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST IL AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR
TONIGHT AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS WAVE AIDING IN A BREEZY
WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD REALIZE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE WITH MID 60S COVERING A LARGE PART OF THE
AREA ESPECIALLY IF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE OCCUR WHICH ARE EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES DUE TO WEAK COOL AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED JET AXIS ROUNDS THE UPPER TROUGH...THE LOW
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PULL AWAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THAT JET ALONG WITH A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA IN THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM/FORCING
WILL POTENTIALLY INTERACT WITH A TIGHTENING OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND POSSIBLY SOME MOISTURE FROM
EASTERN PACIFIC LANDFALLING TROPICAL STORM SIMON. EITHER WAY...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE REGION WILL BE UNDER SOME SUPPORT FOR RAIN. THE
CHALLENGE IS HOW FAR NORTH RAIN WILL REACH AS A DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR
MASS WILL BE OVER THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH.
DPROG/DT IN GUIDANCE INDICATES A GENERAL TREND OVER SEVERAL RUNS
TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WHICH COULD MEAN NORTH OF I-80 WILL
NOT SEE ANYTHING...AND MAYBE IN TIME A LARGER PART OF THE AREA.
FOR NOW HAVE TIGHTENED UP THE GRADIENT IN FORECAST POPS ALONG WITH
HAVING SHIFTED SOUTH SOME.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ENVELOP THE REGION FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THIS IS WELL
AGREED UPON ON GUIDANCE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH LAKE INDUCED
CLOUD COVER THERE IS INTO THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH AT LEAST
SCATTERED CLOUDS APPEAR PROBABLE BASED ON ADAPTED GFS AND EC
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A LIKELY COOL NIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND HAVE ADDED PATCHY FROST IN
NORTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST IL WHERE WIND FLOW LOOKS
LIGHTEST. GUIDANCE IS IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER LONG WAVE
TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PERIOD OVER THE
ROCKIES TO CENTRAL U.S...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH LOW-
LEVEL MASS FIELDS AND JUST GENERAL EVOLUTION ARE EVIDENT IN THIS
TIME. HAVE USED A WELL-VERIFYING BLEND OF GRIDDED MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE TIME BEING.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
RC
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
WINDS ARE VEERING WESTERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL TROUGH AND WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET AS SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS DRAPED JUST TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WEST
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN MID TEENS
AND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE TAF CYCLE AFTER CURRENT POCKET OF HIGH MVFR CIGS IN GYY AREA
SHIFTS EAST. BACK EDGE OF SHOWER/SPRINKLE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IS OVER EASTERN IA...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
VCSH MENTION FOR NEXT FEW HOURS.
RC
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH.
RC
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
THURSDAY...SLT CHC RAIN.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CHC SHRA.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
240 AM CDT
WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK. TODAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT WILL TURN
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE LAKE. DEEP MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 30 KT. MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO TAPER FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST OF THE LAKE.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1232 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1049 AM CDT
FOR MORNING UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO SHOWER COVERAGE/AREAS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA AT TIMES INTO EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...THEN DRYING FROM THE
WEST. HAVE ALSO INDICATED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FROM ABOUT NOON THROUGH 4-5 PM.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT 15Z...ROUGHLY ALONG A MILWAUKEE-PERU-GALESBURG
LINE AT THIS TIME. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WAS GENERALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT JUST
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. WHILE HEAVIER MORNING SHOWERS WERE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA...ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS
NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM IOWA INTO
NORTHERN IL. SCATTERED LIGHTER SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF
THE MID-LEVEL VORT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL...HOWEVER HIGH-RES MODEL
RUNS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
AND DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION. THUS WHILE A SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...IT
APPEARS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WILL A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS. SPC
RAP-MESOANALYSIS GRAPHICS SHOW SOME WEAK MUCAPE AROUND 100 J/KG
THERE NOW...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE RAP AND THE 12Z
NAM SUPPORT MLCAPES IN THE 500-700 J/KG DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF A
PONTIAC TO VALPARAISO LINE THIS AFTERNOON. GREATER COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY END UP BEING JUST OFF TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...RAIN THREAT SHOULD END FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RATZER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
316 AM CDT
THIS WEEK LOOKS TO BE FREE OF ANY HIGH IMPACT WEATHER FOR THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SOME SMALLER CONCERNS OF SHOWERS TODAY...HOW
FAR NORTH RAIN REACHES THURSDAY...AND POTENTIALLY FROST OR FREEZE
FRIDAY NIGHT. EARLY NEXT WEEK A POSSIBLY AMPLIFYING TROUGH MAY
BRING ACTIVE AND/OR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY BUT WITH IT BEING A WEEK OUT AND GIVEN THE ALREADY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WE ARE IN MAKING IT CHALLENGING ON COMPUTER
MODELS...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS.
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...
THE STATIONARY AND MASSIVE ANOMALOUS LONG WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE FOR
THE AREA. STRONGLY CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THIS AND AN
ACTIVE NORTH PACIFIC JET IS DRIVING THE POLAR JET STREAM
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST WITH VIGOR. THIS 120-150 KT
NORTHWESTERLY JET AXIS HAS MULTIPLE SHEARED SHORT WAVE IMPULSES
RIDING ALONG IT AND FRONTOGENETICALLY INFLUENCING AN ALREADY TIGHT
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS WILL BE THE PLAYER FOR SOME RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES TODAY...INCLUDING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A DEPARTING WAVE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL IL AT 3 AM...AND ONE IMPULSE OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. WHILE THE FIRST WAVE WILL HAVE MUCH BETTER COVERAGE
OF RAIN...IT WILL BE EXITING BY 9-10 AM OR SO. THE SECOND WAVE
WILL DROP OVER THE AREA DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THIS IS
FAIRLY MOISTURE-STARVED AND ITS ZONE OF FORCING IS NARROW...SO
ONLY HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THIS MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST IL AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR
TONIGHT AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS WAVE AIDING IN A BREEZY
WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD REALIZE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE WITH MID 60S COVERING A LARGE PART OF THE
AREA ESPECIALLY IF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE OCCUR WHICH ARE EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES DUE TO WEAK COOL AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED JET AXIS ROUNDS THE UPPER TROUGH...THE LOW
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PULL AWAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THAT JET ALONG WITH A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA IN THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM/FORCING
WILL POTENTIALLY INTERACT WITH A TIGHTENING OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND POSSIBLY SOME MOISTURE FROM
EASTERN PACIFIC LANDFALLING TROPICAL STORM SIMON. EITHER WAY...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE REGION WILL BE UNDER SOME SUPPORT FOR RAIN. THE
CHALLENGE IS HOW FAR NORTH RAIN WILL REACH AS A DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR
MASS WILL BE OVER THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH.
DPROG/DT IN GUIDANCE INDICATES A GENERAL TREND OVER SEVERAL RUNS
TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WHICH COULD MEAN NORTH OF I-80 WILL
NOT SEE ANYTHING...AND MAYBE IN TIME A LARGER PART OF THE AREA.
FOR NOW HAVE TIGHTENED UP THE GRADIENT IN FORECAST POPS ALONG WITH
HAVING SHIFTED SOUTH SOME.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ENVELOP THE REGION FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THIS IS WELL
AGREED UPON ON GUIDANCE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH LAKE INDUCED
CLOUD COVER THERE IS INTO THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH AT LEAST
SCATTERED CLOUDS APPEAR PROBABLE BASED ON ADAPTED GFS AND EC
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A LIKELY COOL NIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND HAVE ADDED PATCHY FROST IN
NORTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST IL WHERE WIND FLOW LOOKS
LIGHTEST. GUIDANCE IS IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER LONG WAVE
TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PERIOD OVER THE
ROCKIES TO CENTRAL U.S...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH LOW-
LEVEL MASS FIELDS AND JUST GENERAL EVOLUTION ARE EVIDENT IN THIS
TIME. HAVE USED A WELL-VERIFYING BLEND OF GRIDDED MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE TIME BEING.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
* GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
RC
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
WINDS ARE VEERING WESTERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL TROUGH AND WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET AS SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS DRAPED JUST TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WEST
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN MID TEENS
AND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE TAF CYCLE AFTER CURRENT POCKET OF HIGH MVFR CIGS IN GYY AREA
SHIFTS EAST. BACK EDGE OF SHOWER/SPRINKLE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IS OVER EASTERN IA...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
VCSH MENTION FOR NEXT FEW HOURS.
RC
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH.
RC
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
THURSDAY...SLT CHC RAIN.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CHC SHRA.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
240 AM CDT
WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK. TODAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT WILL TURN
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE LAKE. DEEP MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 30 KT. MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO TAPER FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST OF THE LAKE.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM
WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1230 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1049 AM CDT
FOR MORNING UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO SHOWER COVERAGE/AREAS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA AT TIMES INTO EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...THEN DRYING FROM THE
WEST. HAVE ALSO INDICATED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FROM ABOUT NOON THROUGH 4-5 PM.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT 15Z...ROUGHLY ALONG A MILWAUKEE-PERU-GALESBURG
LINE AT THIS TIME. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WAS GENERALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT JUST
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. WHILE HEAVIER MORNING SHOWERS WERE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA...ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS
NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM IOWA INTO
NORTHERN IL. SCATTERED LIGHTER SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF
THE MID-LEVEL VORT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL...HOWEVER HIGH-RES MODEL
RUNS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
AND DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION. THUS WHILE A SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...IT
APPEARS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WILL A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS. SPC
RAP-MESOANALYSIS GRAPHICS SHOW SOME WEAK MUCAPE AROUND 100 J/KG
THERE NOW...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE RAP AND THE 12Z
NAM SUPPORT MLCAPES IN THE 500-700 J/KG DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF A
PONTIAC TO VALPARAISO LINE THIS AFTERNOON. GREATER COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY END UP BEING JUST OFF TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...RAIN THREAT SHOULD END FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RATZER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
316 AM CDT
THIS WEEK LOOKS TO BE FREE OF ANY HIGH IMPACT WEATHER FOR THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SOME SMALLER CONCERNS OF SHOWERS TODAY...HOW
FAR NORTH RAIN REACHES THURSDAY...AND POTENTIALLY FROST OR FREEZE
FRIDAY NIGHT. EARLY NEXT WEEK A POSSIBLY AMPLIFYING TROUGH MAY
BRING ACTIVE AND/OR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY BUT WITH IT BEING A WEEK OUT AND GIVEN THE ALREADY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WE ARE IN MAKING IT CHALLENGING ON COMPUTER
MODELS...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS.
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...
THE STATIONARY AND MASSIVE ANOMALOUS LONG WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE FOR
THE AREA. STRONGLY CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THIS AND AN
ACTIVE NORTH PACIFIC JET IS DRIVING THE POLAR JET STREAM
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST WITH VIGOR. THIS 120-150 KT
NORTHWESTERLY JET AXIS HAS MULTIPLE SHEARED SHORT WAVE IMPULSES
RIDING ALONG IT AND FRONTOGENETICALLY INFLUENCING AN ALREADY TIGHT
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS WILL BE THE PLAYER FOR SOME RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES TODAY...INCLUDING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A DEPARTING WAVE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL IL AT 3 AM...AND ONE IMPULSE OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. WHILE THE FIRST WAVE WILL HAVE MUCH BETTER COVERAGE
OF RAIN...IT WILL BE EXITING BY 9-10 AM OR SO. THE SECOND WAVE
WILL DROP OVER THE AREA DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THIS IS
FAIRLY MOISTURE-STARVED AND ITS ZONE OF FORCING IS NARROW...SO
ONLY HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THIS MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST IL AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR
TONIGHT AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS WAVE AIDING IN A BREEZY
WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD REALIZE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE WITH MID 60S COVERING A LARGE PART OF THE
AREA ESPECIALLY IF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE OCCUR WHICH ARE EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES DUE TO WEAK COOL AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED JET AXIS ROUNDS THE UPPER TROUGH...THE LOW
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PULL AWAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THAT JET ALONG WITH A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA IN THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM/FORCING
WILL POTENTIALLY INTERACT WITH A TIGHTENING OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND POSSIBLY SOME MOISTURE FROM
EASTERN PACIFIC LANDFALLING TROPICAL STORM SIMON. EITHER WAY...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE REGION WILL BE UNDER SOME SUPPORT FOR RAIN. THE
CHALLENGE IS HOW FAR NORTH RAIN WILL REACH AS A DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR
MASS WILL BE OVER THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH.
DPROG/DT IN GUIDANCE INDICATES A GENERAL TREND OVER SEVERAL RUNS
TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WHICH COULD MEAN NORTH OF I-80 WILL
NOT SEE ANYTHING...AND MAYBE IN TIME A LARGER PART OF THE AREA.
FOR NOW HAVE TIGHTENED UP THE GRADIENT IN FORECAST POPS ALONG WITH
HAVING SHIFTED SOUTH SOME.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ENVELOP THE REGION FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THIS IS WELL
AGREED UPON ON GUIDANCE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH LAKE INDUCED
CLOUD COVER THERE IS INTO THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH AT LEAST
SCATTERED CLOUDS APPEAR PROBABLE BASED ON ADAPTED GFS AND EC
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A LIKELY COOL NIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND HAVE ADDED PATCHY FROST IN
NORTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST IL WHERE WIND FLOW LOOKS
LIGHTEST. GUIDANCE IS IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER LONG WAVE
TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PERIOD OVER THE
ROCKIES TO CENTRAL U.S...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH LOW-
LEVEL MASS FIELDS AND JUST GENERAL EVOLUTION ARE EVIDENT IN THIS
TIME. HAVE USED A WELL-VERIFYING BLEND OF GRIDDED MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE TIME BEING.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
* GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
RC
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
WINDS ARE VEERING WESTERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL TROUGH AND WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET AS SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS DRAPED JUST TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WEST
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN MID TEENS
AND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE TAF CYCLE AFTER CURRENT POCKET OF HIGH MVFR CIGS IN GYY AREA
SHIFTS EAST.
RC
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH.
RC
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
THURSDAY...SLT CHC RAIN.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CHC SHRA.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
240 AM CDT
WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK. TODAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT WILL TURN
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE LAKE. DEEP MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 30 KT. MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO TAPER FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST OF THE LAKE.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM
WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1103 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1049 AM CDT
FOR MORNING UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO SHOWER COVERAGE/AREAS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA AT TIMES INTO EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...THEN DRYING FROM THE
WEST. HAVE ALSO INDICATED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FROM ABOUT NOON THROUGH 4-5 PM.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT 15Z...ROUGHLY ALONG A MILWAUKEE-PERU-GALESBURG
LINE AT THIS TIME. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WAS GENERALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT JUST
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. WHILE HEAVIER MORNING SHOWERS WERE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA...ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS
NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM IOWA INTO
NORTHERN IL. SCATTERED LIGHTER SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF
THE MID-LEVEL VORT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL...HOWEVER HIGH-RES MODEL
RUNS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
AND DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION. THUS WHILE A SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...IT
APPEARS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WILL A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS. SPC
RAP-MESOANALYSIS GRAPHICS SHOW SOME WEAK MUCAPE AROUND 100 J/KG
THERE NOW...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE RAP AND THE 12Z
NAM SUPPORT MLCAPES IN THE 500-700 J/KG DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF A
PONTIAC TO VALPARAISO LINE THIS AFTERNOON. GREATER COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY END UP BEING JUST OFF TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...RAIN THREAT SHOULD END FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RATZER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
316 AM CDT
THIS WEEK LOOKS TO BE FREE OF ANY HIGH IMPACT WEATHER FOR THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SOME SMALLER CONCERNS OF SHOWERS TODAY...HOW
FAR NORTH RAIN REACHES THURSDAY...AND POTENTIALLY FROST OR FREEZE
FRIDAY NIGHT. EARLY NEXT WEEK A POSSIBLY AMPLIFYING TROUGH MAY
BRING ACTIVE AND/OR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY BUT WITH IT BEING A WEEK OUT AND GIVEN THE ALREADY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WE ARE IN MAKING IT CHALLENGING ON COMPUTER
MODELS...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS.
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...
THE STATIONARY AND MASSIVE ANOMALOUS LONG WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE FOR
THE AREA. STRONGLY CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THIS AND AN
ACTIVE NORTH PACIFIC JET IS DRIVING THE POLAR JET STREAM
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST WITH VIGOR. THIS 120-150 KT
NORTHWESTERLY JET AXIS HAS MULTIPLE SHEARED SHORT WAVE IMPULSES
RIDING ALONG IT AND FRONTOGENETICALLY INFLUENCING AN ALREADY TIGHT
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS WILL BE THE PLAYER FOR SOME RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES TODAY...INCLUDING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A DEPARTING WAVE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL IL AT 3 AM...AND ONE IMPULSE OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. WHILE THE FIRST WAVE WILL HAVE MUCH BETTER COVERAGE
OF RAIN...IT WILL BE EXITING BY 9-10 AM OR SO. THE SECOND WAVE
WILL DROP OVER THE AREA DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THIS IS
FAIRLY MOISTURE-STARVED AND ITS ZONE OF FORCING IS NARROW...SO
ONLY HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THIS MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST IL AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR
TONIGHT AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS WAVE AIDING IN A BREEZY
WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD REALIZE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE WITH MID 60S COVERING A LARGE PART OF THE
AREA ESPECIALLY IF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE OCCUR WHICH ARE EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES DUE TO WEAK COOL AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED JET AXIS ROUNDS THE UPPER TROUGH...THE LOW
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PULL AWAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THAT JET ALONG WITH A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA IN THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM/FORCING
WILL POTENTIALLY INTERACT WITH A TIGHTENING OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND POSSIBLY SOME MOISTURE FROM
EASTERN PACIFIC LANDFALLING TROPICAL STORM SIMON. EITHER WAY...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE REGION WILL BE UNDER SOME SUPPORT FOR RAIN. THE
CHALLENGE IS HOW FAR NORTH RAIN WILL REACH AS A DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR
MASS WILL BE OVER THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH.
DPROG/DT IN GUIDANCE INDICATES A GENERAL TREND OVER SEVERAL RUNS
TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WHICH COULD MEAN NORTH OF I-80 WILL
NOT SEE ANYTHING...AND MAYBE IN TIME A LARGER PART OF THE AREA.
FOR NOW HAVE TIGHTENED UP THE GRADIENT IN FORECAST POPS ALONG WITH
HAVING SHIFTED SOUTH SOME.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ENVELOP THE REGION FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THIS IS WELL
AGREED UPON ON GUIDANCE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH LAKE INDUCED
CLOUD COVER THERE IS INTO THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH AT LEAST
SCATTERED CLOUDS APPEAR PROBABLE BASED ON ADAPTED GFS AND EC
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A LIKELY COOL NIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND HAVE ADDED PATCHY FROST IN
NORTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST IL WHERE WIND FLOW LOOKS
LIGHTEST. GUIDANCE IS IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER LONG WAVE
TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PERIOD OVER THE
ROCKIES TO CENTRAL U.S...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH LOW-
LEVEL MASS FIELDS AND JUST GENERAL EVOLUTION ARE EVIDENT IN THIS
TIME. HAVE USED A WELL-VERIFYING BLEND OF GRIDDED MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE TIME BEING.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IN THE AREA LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
* GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS VEERING WEST.
RC
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING HAS KICKED OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER SE MN AND NE IA WHICH WILL
ARRIVE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THESE LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE HIGH BASED AND FAIRLY WIDELY
SCATTERED IN COVERAGE SO THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY IMPACTS DIRECTLY AT
THE TERMINALS IS LOW. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL BEGIN TO GUST SOMETIME SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THEN VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA. SUBSIDENCE WILL SET IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT ALLOWING DRYING/WARMING OF THE MID LEVELS WHICH WILL
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND LESS CLOUD COVER FOR WEDNESDAY.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH.
RC
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
THURSDAY...SLT CHC RAIN.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CHC SHRA.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
240 AM CDT
WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK. TODAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT WILL TURN
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE LAKE. DEEP MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 30 KT. MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO TAPER FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST OF THE LAKE.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM
WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...3 PM TUESDAY TO 4
AM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1050 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1049 AM CDT
FOR MORNING UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO SHOWER COVERAGE/AREAS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA AT TIMES INTO EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...THEN DRYING FROM THE
WEST. HAVE ALSO INDICATED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FROM ABOUT NOON THROUGH 4-5 PM.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT 15Z...ROUGHLY ALONG A MILWAUKEE-PERU-GALESBURG
LINE AT THIS TIME. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WAS GENERALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT JUST
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. WHILE HEAVIER MORNING SHOWERS WERE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA...ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS
NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM IOWA INTO
NORTHERN IL. SCATTERED LIGHTER SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF
THE MID-LEVEL VORT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL...HOWEVER HIGH-RES MODEL
RUNS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
AND DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION. THUS WHILE A SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...IT
APPEARS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WILL A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS. SPC
RAP-MESOANALYSIS GRAPHICS SHOW SOME WEAK MUCAPE AROUND 100 J/KG
THERE NOW...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE RAP AND THE 12Z
NAM SUPPORT MLCAPES IN THE 500-700 J/KG DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF A
PONTIAC TO VALPARAISO LINE THIS AFTERNOON. GREATER COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY END UP BEING JUST OFF TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...RAIN THREAT SHOULD END FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RATZER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
316 AM CDT
THIS WEEK LOOKS TO BE FREE OF ANY HIGH IMPACT WEATHER FOR THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SOME SMALLER CONCERNS OF SHOWERS TODAY...HOW
FAR NORTH RAIN REACHES THURSDAY...AND POTENTIALLY FROST OR FREEZE
FRIDAY NIGHT. EARLY NEXT WEEK A POSSIBLY AMPLIFYING TROUGH MAY
BRING ACTIVE AND/OR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY BUT WITH IT BEING A WEEK OUT AND GIVEN THE ALREADY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WE ARE IN MAKING IT CHALLENGING ON COMPUTER
MODELS...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS.
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...
THE STATIONARY AND MASSIVE ANOMALOUS LONG WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE FOR
THE AREA. STRONGLY CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THIS AND AN
ACTIVE NORTH PACIFIC JET IS DRIVING THE POLAR JET STREAM
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST WITH VIGOR. THIS 120-150 KT
NORTHWESTERLY JET AXIS HAS MULTIPLE SHEARED SHORT WAVE IMPULSES
RIDING ALONG IT AND FRONTOGENETICALLY INFLUENCING AN ALREADY TIGHT
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS WILL BE THE PLAYER FOR SOME RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES TODAY...INCLUDING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A DEPARTING WAVE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL IL AT 3 AM...AND ONE IMPULSE OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. WHILE THE FIRST WAVE WILL HAVE MUCH BETTER COVERAGE
OF RAIN...IT WILL BE EXITING BY 9-10 AM OR SO. THE SECOND WAVE
WILL DROP OVER THE AREA DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THIS IS
FAIRLY MOISTURE-STARVED AND ITS ZONE OF FORCING IS NARROW...SO
ONLY HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THIS MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST IL AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR
TONIGHT AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS WAVE AIDING IN A BREEZY
WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD REALIZE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE WITH MID 60S COVERING A LARGE PART OF THE
AREA ESPECIALLY IF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE OCCUR WHICH ARE EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES DUE TO WEAK COOL AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED JET AXIS ROUNDS THE UPPER TROUGH...THE LOW
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PULL AWAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THAT JET ALONG WITH A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA IN THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM/FORCING
WILL POTENTIALLY INTERACT WITH A TIGHTENING OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND POSSIBLY SOME MOISTURE FROM
EASTERN PACIFIC LANDFALLING TROPICAL STORM SIMON. EITHER WAY...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE REGION WILL BE UNDER SOME SUPPORT FOR RAIN. THE
CHALLENGE IS HOW FAR NORTH RAIN WILL REACH AS A DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR
MASS WILL BE OVER THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH.
DPROG/DT IN GUIDANCE INDICATES A GENERAL TREND OVER SEVERAL RUNS
TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WHICH COULD MEAN NORTH OF I-80 WILL
NOT SEE ANYTHING...AND MAYBE IN TIME A LARGER PART OF THE AREA.
FOR NOW HAVE TIGHTENED UP THE GRADIENT IN FORECAST POPS ALONG WITH
HAVING SHIFTED SOUTH SOME.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ENVELOP THE REGION FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THIS IS WELL
AGREED UPON ON GUIDANCE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH LAKE INDUCED
CLOUD COVER THERE IS INTO THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH AT LEAST
SCATTERED CLOUDS APPEAR PROBABLE BASED ON ADAPTED GFS AND EC
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A LIKELY COOL NIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND HAVE ADDED PATCHY FROST IN
NORTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST IL WHERE WIND FLOW LOOKS
LIGHTEST. GUIDANCE IS IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER LONG WAVE
TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PERIOD OVER THE
ROCKIES TO CENTRAL U.S...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH LOW-
LEVEL MASS FIELDS AND JUST GENERAL EVOLUTION ARE EVIDENT IN THIS
TIME. HAVE USED A WELL-VERIFYING BLEND OF GRIDDED MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE TIME BEING.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
* GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS VEERING WEST.
RC
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING HAS KICKED OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER SE MN AND NE IA WHICH WILL
ARRIVE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THESE LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE HIGH BASED AND FAIRLY WIDELY
SCATTERED IN COVERAGE SO THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY IMPACTS DIRECTLY AT
THE TERMINALS IS LOW. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL BEGIN TO GUST SOMETIME SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THEN VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA. SUBSIDENCE WILL SET IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT ALLOWING DRYING/WARMING OF THE MID LEVELS WHICH WILL
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND LESS CLOUD COVER FOR WEDNESDAY.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* HIGH.
RC
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
THURSDAY...SLT CHC RAIN.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CHC SHRA.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
240 AM CDT
WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK. TODAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT WILL TURN
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE LAKE. DEEP MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 30 KT. MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO TAPER FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST OF THE LAKE.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM
WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...3 PM TUESDAY TO 4
AM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1208 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
341 PM CDT
OVERALL A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF THE
AREA THIS WEEK. THE LARGE UPPER LOW PARKED SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY THAT
USHERED IN ALL THIS COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WOBBLE AWAY TO
THE EAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND EVENTUALLY OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN ITS PRESENCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FELT...WITH THE AREA REMAINING JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
AVERAGE FOR EARLY TO MID OCTOBER. ADDITIONALLY...SHORTWAVES
SPINNING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
RAIN THIS WEEK...PRIMARILY TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW AND THEN
AGAIN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE ALOFT...A WEAK
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT SOME BRIEF SHOWERS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO LIMIT COOLING WITH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON THIS FEATURE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST...LEAVING COOL
WESTERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
BY DAYTIME THURSDAY A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES...BUT THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED BOTH BY MEAGER
MOISTURE TOWARD THE WISCONSIN LINE AS WELL AS SUBSIDENCE FROM A DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SETTLED
OVER THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR BUT TEMPERATURES COOL UNTIL THE
RETURN FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS FEATURE BEGINS TO SET UP LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY COMES AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THIS
MAY ALSO HOLD OFF TILL MONDAY.
LENNING
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST BY AROUND MIDDAY
TUESDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING IN MAGNITUDE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS WHEN DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN SOME GUSTINESS. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TONIGHT HAS ALREADY KICKED OFF SHOWERS
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR...BUT GYY MAY BE CLOSE TO A FEW OF
THESE SHOWERS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DIGGING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT WILL ARRIVE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON TUESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
FOR THE CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHC OF RAIN...PATCHY MVFR OR IFR WITH RAIN.
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...CHC OF RAIN IN THE EVENING.
SUNDAY...CHC OF RAIN.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
334 PM CDT
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...AS A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS SITUATED MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE STRONGEST
WINDS TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTH HALF...UNTIL THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS WHEN A WEAK TROUGH AXIS PUSHED THROUGH THE FAR PORTION OF
THE LAKE. THIS RESULTED IN A QUICK INCREASE IN SPEEDS UP TO 15 TO
25 KT AND EVEN GUSTS UP TO 30 KT OUT OF THE WEST SOUTHWEST.
ALTHOUGH THESE STRONGER WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ESPECIALLY FOR THE INDIANA SHORE...DO
THINK THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHT DIMINISHING TREND OVER THE NEXT
ONE TO TWO HOURS. WITH THIS QUICK INCREASE IN SPEEDS AND NOW WAVES
FOR THE INDIANA SHORE...DID START THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIANA SHORE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO OBSERVE
ANOTHER INCREASING TREND MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT...MAINTAINED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINING
AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ALL AREAS OVER THE LAKE
WILL OBSERVE THIS INCREASING TREND...WITH WINDS TO 30 KT LIKELY
TONIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1136 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 733 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
Made some minor updates to the going forecast for tonight, mainly
to decrease thunder wording. Next short-wave embedded within broad
northwesterly flow pattern is currently streaking southeastward
out of the Northern Plains: however, this feature does not appear
to be as potent on water vapor imagery as the first system that
tracked across southern Illinois into the Ohio River Valley this
afternoon. 00z/7pm satellite/radar mosaic shows clouds and a few
light showers developing upstream across Nebraska into western
Iowa. 18z NAM and latest HRRR models both spread showers into
west-central Illinois by mid to late evening, then across the
remainder of the area overnight. Forecast soundings show ample
moistening aloft, but maintain dry layer near the surface. In
addition, mid-level lapse rates remain marginal for thunder. As a
result, have removed thunder entirely across the north and
included only isolated thunder along/south of a Rushville to
Robinson line overnight as this area will be closer to the track
of the 500mb vort max and strongest lift. Have also adjusted temps
to go with lows in the upper 40s to around 50 by midnight, with
steady or even slowly rising temps overnight as thicker clouds and
precip arrive.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
A weather disturbance has produced some isolated storms with small
hail south of a line from Taylorville to Mattoon this afternoon.
That train of showers and storms may linger into the early evening
south of I-70, before dissipating. Quickly on the heels of that
system will be a strong shortwave rolling out of the Plains. It is
expected to affect at least the southern half of IL tonight. Showers
appear likely SW of a line from Rushville to Shelbyville after
midnight, with rain chances extending across all of central and
southeast IL by morning. A few thunderstorms will be possible with
the overnight shortwave, as mid-level instability appears favorable
for stronger updrafts. Increasing clouds and steady S-SW winds will
help keep low temps warmer than last night, with readings in the low
50s south and around 50 north.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
A fast moving shortwave from late tonight will continue to trigger
showers Tuesday morning east of the Illinois River. A few
thunderstorms will be possible from the vigorous shortwave. Steep
lapse rates will help fuel stronger updrafts, pushing more moisture
above the freezing level. By afternoon, nearly all of the showers
should push into Indiana, leaving some clearing from west to east as
the dry mid-level air mixes into the cloud layer. Another period of
gusty west winds are on tap behind the weather disturbance, with
afternoon gusts of 20-30 mph. The afternoon sunshine will help push
high temps into the low 70s south of I-72, and in the upper 60s
north of I-72.
The long wave upper trough over the eastern CONUS will make gradual
progress eastward on Wednesday, allowing for plenty of sunshine and
another day of high temps near normal, in the upper 60s to low 70s.
West winds will be less gusty as high pressure builds into IL and
the pressure gradient weakens.
Wednesday night, a northern stream shortwave will merger with
southern stream energy to trigger showers starting later in the
evening southwest of Canton to Effingham, then expanding across the
remainder of our forecast area after midnight. As moisture from the
remnants of Pacific Storm Simon merges with the storm system on
Thursday into Thursday night, rainfall rates are likely to increase
across our southern counties, especially south of I-72.
There remains some agreement in the GFS and ECMWF that high pressure
will build into Illinois Friday and Friday night, providing a break
in the rainfall. Model differences show up after that, as the ECMWF
is more aggressive with southern stream waves pulling the stalled
frontal boundary north into Illinois, triggering several waves of
rain through the weekend and into early next week. The GFS keeps the
storm track south of IL, keeping our forecast area completely dry
until as late as Monday night. For now, we trended a little lower
with PoPs next weekend, and will hope for better agreement in the
coming model runs.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
04z/11pm radar imagery shows showers spreading across west-central
Illinois as weak short-wave approaches from the west. Based on
trajectory of 500mb vort max and recent radar loops, it appears
the most widespread shower activity will be focused south of the
I-74 corridor. Have opted to carry predominant showers at
KSPI/KDEC/KCMI through the night, with showers ending from west to
east between 14z and 17z. Further north, will only mention VCSH at
the remaining terminals overnight. Once the wave passes to the
east, skies will partially clear on Tuesday. Thanks to a decent
pressure gradient, gusty W/NW winds will develop as well.
Forecast soundings suggest gusts increasing to between 20 and 25kt
from late morning through the afternoon. Diurnal cloudiness will
dissipate and winds will diminish to less than 10kt by sunset.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
914 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCORPORATE LATEST 18Z FORECAST GUIDANCE
AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL DATA. SLOWED THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION
ARRIVAL DOWN BY A FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. SOME
GUIDANCE...SPECIFICALLY THE NAM AND GFS...BRING PRECIPITATION IN
MUCH EARLIER THAN HIGH-RES MODELS...EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN. ALSO
DECIDED TO INCREASE RAINFALL AMOUNTS...RAISE POPS AND INCLUDE A
HEAVY RAIN MENTION IN THE GRIDS. PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE IS PROJECTED TO APPROACH 1.2-1.3 INCHES...AROUND 2-3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE FROM THE MBRFC IS NEAR 2 INCHES OVER 3 HOURS AND 3
INCHES OVER 6 HOURS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
DO NOT THINK RAINFALL RATES WILL EXCEED THIS GUIDANCE SO OPTED NOT
TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME EVEN WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY
MOIST ATMOSPHERE.
AS FOR FOG TONIGHT...AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL WE WILL SEE FOG LESS
THAN 3 MILES TONIGHT WITH DENSE CIRRUS OVERHEAD AND AN INCREASE IN
WINDSPEEDS AT AROUND THE TIME OF FOG DEVELOPMENT. KEPT FOG MENTION
IN THE GRIDS BUT OVERALL NOT CONFIDENT IT WILL HAPPEN. MORE THAN
LIKELY...WE WILL HAVE STRATUS TONIGHT INSTEAD OF FOG. DID INSERT
FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW NIGHT AS A VERY MOIST...POST
FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN PLACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP HF ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND THE REMNANTS OF SIMON MOVING OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THE THE SURFACE A STALLED FRONT
EXTENDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT EAST OF THIS FRONT HAS HELPED TEMPS
WARM TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S DESPITE LINGERING CLOUD COVER.
TONIGHT...WITH MOISTURE POOLING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE IN OUR
WEST/SOUTHWEST AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST FOG MAY
BEGIN TO DEVELOP. COMPLICATION WILL BE LINGERING AND REDEVELOPING
STRATUS...WHICH COULD LIMIT LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYER..AND WITH UPWARD
MOTION GENERALLY FAVORED BY 12Z AS SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW WE
MAY BE TO WELL MIXED FOR MORE THAN STRATUS OR JUST LIGHT FOG. I KEPT
PATCH FOG MENTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH RIGHT NOW.
THURSDAY...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE COULD
SUPPORT DRIZZLE AS EARLY AS SUNRISE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. MODEL
SOUNDINGS REALLY DO NOT START TO SHOW BETTER MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE UNTIL MIDDAY AS REMNANTS OF SIMON MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS CLOSED 700MB LOW AND
STRONG JET STREAK MOVING IN FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR DEFORMATION BAND
OF PRECIP TO SET UP OVER I-70 CORRIDOR OR SOUTH BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AND COUPLED WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AND TROPICAL
MOISTURE WE COULD START TO SEE STEADY SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 18Z. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE AND WHILE I TRENDED POPS UP AM HESITANT TO GO TOO HIGH
UNTIL WE SEE BETTER RUN-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR ONSET THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. CERTAINLY GOOD PRECIP SIGNAL IN CURRENT GUIDANCE...AND
WITH UNSEASONABLY HIGH PWAT VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL AIR
MASS MAIN PRECIP BAND COULD BE VERY EFFICIENT. MODELS GENERALLY
SHOW LOCATION OF HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER WITH TRACK OF H7 LOW AND POSSIBLE
DEFORMATION/OVERRUNNING EVENT I COULD SEE THESE AMOUNTS SHIFTING
FURTHER NORTH.
WITH FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND CLOUD COVER/PRECIP THERE MAIN BE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL WARMING. I TRENDED HIGHS DOWN FRIDAY TO
THE 60-65F RANGE...AND COULD SEE THIS STILL BEING TOO COOL IF THERE
ISNT A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER BEFORE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP MOVES INTO
REGION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
A TROUGH WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AND THEN SHIFT EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
PLAN TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER OVER
THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN 7H LOW MOVES
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE. POPS WILL
DECREASE TO CHANCE IN THE WESTERN FA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BEST
MOISTURE MOVES EAST. THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS START MOVING MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS OUT OF THE FA FRIDAY EVENING. POPS FRIDAY EVENING WILL
RANGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE DECREASING TO NIL POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BENEFICIAL RAINFALL SHOULD BE REALIZED FROM THIS EVENT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1 INCH. SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE INTO
THE FA BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH WITH NIL POPS CONTINUING SATURDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL COOL TO THE MID 40S AND TO
AROUND 40 FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S
FRIDAY AND THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY.
IN THE EXTENDED...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SUBSIDENCE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN NIL POPS.
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
MONDAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE INTO THE FA BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.
POPS WILL BE NIL MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY
WARMING TO THE LOWER 70S THURSDAY/FRIDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT WARMING TO THE
MID 40S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 534 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
MOISTURE-RICH ATMOSPHERE FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE SIMON REMNANTS
INTERACTS WITH A STATIONARY FRONT TO CREATE POOR FLYING CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT FORECAST PERIOD. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FROM STRATUS
AND POSSIBLY LIGHT FOG AFTER 05Z THIS EVENING. STRATUS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP AS LOW AT KMCK DUE TO DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM
NORTHEAST. WORSE CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT KGLD...REACHING IFR
CEILINGS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE SLIGHTLY TO MVFR DURING THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS AS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE. PRECIP
DEVELOPS/MOVES IN FROM SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BRINGING A
RETURN TO MVFR VIS AND LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS. RAINS MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 00Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
534 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP HF ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND THE REMNANTS OF SIMON MOVING OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THE THE SURFACE A STALLED FRONT
EXTENDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT EAST OF THIS FRONT HAS HELPED TEMPS
WARM TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S DESPITE LINGERING CLOUD COVER.
TONIGHT...WITH MOISTURE POOLING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE IN OUR
WEST/SOUTHWEST AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST FOG MAY
BEGIN TO DEVELOP. COMPLICATION WILL BE LINGERING AND REDEVELOPING
STRATUS...WHICH COULD LIMIT LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYER..AND WITH UPWARD
MOTION GENERALLY FAVORED BY 12Z AS SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW WE
MAY BE TO WELL MIXED FOR MORE THAN STRATUS OR JUST LIGHT FOG. I KEPT
PATCH FOG MENTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH RIGHT NOW.
THURSDAY...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE COULD
SUPPORT DRIZZLE AS EARLY AS SUNRISE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. MODEL
SOUNDINGS REALLY DO NOT START TO SHOW BETTER MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE UNTIL MIDDAY AS REMNANTS OF SIMON MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS CLOSED 700MB LOW AND
STRONG JET STREAK MOVING IN FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR DEFORMATION BAND
OF PRECIP TO SET UP OVER I-70 CORRIDOR OR SOUTH BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AND COUPLED WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AND TROPICAL
MOISTURE WE COULD START TO SEE STEADY SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 18Z. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE AND WHILE I TRENDED POPS UP AM HESITANT TO GO TOO HIGH
UNTIL WE SEE BETTER RUN-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR ONSET THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. CERTAINLY GOOD PRECIP SIGNAL IN CURRENT GUIDANCE...AND
WITH UNSEASONABLY HIGH PWAT VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL AIR
MASS MAIN PRECIP BAND COULD BE VERY EFFICIENT. MODELS GENERALLY
SHOW LOCATION OF HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER WITH TRACK OF H7 LOW AND POSSIBLE
DEFORMATION/OVERRUNNING EVENT I COULD SEE THESE AMOUNTS SHIFTING
FURTHER NORTH.
WITH FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND CLOUD COVER/PRECIP THERE MAIN BE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL WARMING. I TRENDED HIGHS DOWN FRIDAY TO
THE 60-65F RANGE...AND COULD SEE THIS STILL BEING TOO COOL IF THERE
ISNT A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER BEFORE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP MOVES INTO
REGION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
A TROUGH WILL BB OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AND THEN SHIFT EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
PLAN TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER OVER
THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN 7H LOW MOVES
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE. POPS WILL
DECREASE TO CHANCE IN THE WESTERN FA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BEST
MOISTURE MOVES EAST. THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS START MOVING MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS OUT OF THE FA FRIDAY EVENING. POPS FRIDAY EVENING WILL
RANGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE DECREASING TO NIL POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BENEFICIAL RAINFALL SHOULD BE REALIZED FROM THIS EVENT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1 INCH. SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE INTO
THE FA BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH WITH NIL POPS CONTINUING SATURDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL COOL TO THE MID 40S AND TO
AROUND 40 FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S
FRIDAY AND THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY.
IN THE EXTENDED...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SUBSIDENCE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN NIL POPS.
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
MONDAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE INTO THE FA BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.
POPS WILL BE NIL MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY
WARMING TO THE LOWER 70S THURSDAY/FRIDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT WARMING TO THE
MID 40S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 534 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
MOISTURE-RICH ATMOSPHERE FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE SIMON REMNANTS
INTERACTS WITH A STATIONARY FRONT TO CREATE POOR FLYING CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT FORECAST PERIOD. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FROM STRATUS
AND POSSIBLY LIGHT FOG AFTER 05Z THIS EVENING. STRATUS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP AS LOW AT KMCK DUE TO DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM
NORTHEAST. WORSE CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT KGLD...REACHING IFR
CEILINGS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE SLIGHTLY TO MVFR DURING THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS AS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE. PRECIP
DEVELOPS/MOVES IN FROM SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BRINGING A
RETURN TO MVFR VIS AND LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS. RAINS MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 00Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
435 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO EXTEND THE TORNADO WATCH A COUPLE OF COUNTIES
SOUTH. THIS WAS MAINLY TO DEAL WITH THE DEVELOPING LINEAR CELLS JUST
OUTSIDE OF ROCKCASTLE COUNTY. THE WCN HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG WITH
UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES. HWO TO FOLLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA. THE WIND FIELD AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH A MID LEVEL SPEED
MAX MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SURGE OF
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION...HAS RESULTED IN A THREAT FOR
SUPERCELLS AND THEIR SEVERE WEATHER ATTRIBUTES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA...WHERE A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT. ON
RADAR...A VERY STRONG/SEVERE CLUSTER OF STORMS IS NOW TRACKING
THROUGH THE WATCH AREA TOWARD EAST KENTUCKY AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
JKL CWA BETWEEN 4:30 AND 6 PM...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER THIS
INITIAL BATCH OF STORMS PASS. A CLEARING OF THE LOWER CLOUDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE EARLIER SHOWERS AND STORMS IS BRINGING TEMPERATURES UP
INTO THE 60S AND 70S THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
10 TO 20 KTS AND GUSTS TO 25 KTS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE LARGE AND DEEP UPPER
LOW SPINNING NORTH OF THE MIDWEST AND ITS ATTENDANT ENERGY PACKET
RACING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. THIS NODE OF
THE UPPER LOW THEN LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR DECENT HEIGHT
RISES IN ITS WAKE. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE A VIRTUAL MATCH WITH THEIR
FLATTENING OF THE PATTERN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. LATER THAT NIGHT
AN OPENING TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNER/S REGION WILL SEND MORE ENERGY
THIS WAY IN THE FAST FLOW LEADING RIGHT INTO KENTUCKY. FOR THE MOST
PART...USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR AND
NAM12 FOR THE NEAR TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A STORMY EVENING FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AREA INTO THE
EVENING. THE STORMS WILL MOVE OFF BY LATE EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ON TAP. FOR WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE US ONE SOLID DAY OF DRY WEATHER WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HOWEVER...THE FRONT THAT PUSHES OFF TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT WILL START TO COME BACK AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BY DAWN IN BOTH THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA AND ALSO ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER.
USED THE CONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 18-24 HOURS BEFORE GOING WITH THE SUPERBLEND
THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR TERRAIN EFFECTS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED
UP MORE SIMILAR TO THE WETTER MET NUMBERS TONIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH THE BROAD
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CANADIAN MARITIMES AND SLOWLY
SHIFTING EAST. MEANWHILE DURING THIS TIME...A RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS WITH A CLOSED LOW BEING THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM SIMON MOVING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. BY THE WEEKEND...A STRONG JET STREAK DIVES OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A TROUGH DEEPENS
FURTHER WITH THE REMNANTS OF SIMON MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS HAVE SEEM TO
COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AS WELL AS THE SUPER BLEND
MODEL...AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SUPER BLEND GAVE A
CONSENSUS OF LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO KEPT THIS SOLUTION
IN THE FORECAST.
FOR DETAILS IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AN EXITING FRONT BECOMES STALLED
AND ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ALONG THE TN VALLEY AND INTO KY DURING THE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD DUE TO STRONG RIDGING ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THIS SETS UP A SCENARIO WHERE NUMEROUS WAVES MOVE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY PROVIDING RAIN CHANCES EVERYDAY DURING THE EXTENDED. THIS
BEING A MORE SPRING LIKE PATTERN OCCURRING THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
VEGETATION ON THE DECLINE COULD MAKE FOR A CONCERN FOR FLOODING IN
THE EXTENDED. WITH THE REMNANTS OF SIMON...THE INFLUX OF GULF
MOISTURE AND AN ACTIVE JET FOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THE INGREDIENTS
MAY BE AVAILABLE FOR THIS EVENT. A FEW DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE
IRONED OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE MODELS HANDLING A TRANSITION IN THE
PATTERN BUT THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
CLEARING OF THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. A FEW OF THESE COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTH OF
THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. HAVE TIMED THE STORMS THROUGH THE TAF SITES
BY 23/00Z. WITH THESE...IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON WITH
BRIEF TIMES OF VLIFR ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 KTS...THOUGH
THEY WILL BE SUSTAINED FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.
OTHERWISE...THE CIGS WILL START TO CLEAR UP AFTER 03Z WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND WINDS SWITCHING TO THE WEST AT 5
TO 10 KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
350 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA. THE WIND FIELD AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH A MID LEVEL SPEED
MAX MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SURGE OF
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION...HAS RESULTED IN A THREAT FOR
SUPERCELLS AND THEIR SEVERE WEATHER ATTRIBUTES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA...WHERE A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT. ON
RADAR...A VERY STRONG/SEVERE CLUSTER OF STORMS IS NOW TRACKING
THROUGH THE WATCH AREA TOWARD EAST KENTUCKY AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
JKL CWA BETWEEN 4:30 AND 6 PM...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER THIS
INITIAL BATCH OF STORMS PASS. A CLEARING OF THE LOWER CLOUDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE EARLIER SHOWERS AND STORMS IS BRINGING TEMPERATURES UP
INTO THE 60S AND 70S THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
10 TO 20 KTS AND GUSTS TO 25 KTS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE LARGE AND DEEP UPPER
LOW SPINNING NORTH OF THE MIDWEST AND ITS ATTENDANT ENERGY PACKET
RACING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. THIS NODE OF
THE UPPER LOW THEN LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR DECENT HEIGHT
RISES IN ITS WAKE. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE A VIRTUAL MATCH WITH THEIR
FLATTENING OF THE PATTERN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. LATER THAT NIGHT
AN OPENING TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNER/S REGION WILL SEND MORE ENERGY
THIS WAY IN THE FAST FLOW LEADING RIGHT INTO KENTUCKY. FOR THE MOST
PART...USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR AND
NAM12 FOR THE NEAR TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A STORMY EVENING FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AREA INTO THE
EVENING. THE STORMS WILL MOVE OFF BY LATE EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ON TAP. FOR WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE US ONE SOLID DAY OF DRY WEATHER WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HOWEVER...THE FRONT THAT PUSHES OFF TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT WILL START TO COME BACK AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BY DAWN IN BOTH THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA AND ALSO ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER.
USED THE CONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 18-24 HOURS BEFORE GOING WITH THE SUPERBLEND
THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR TERRAIN EFFECTS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED
UP MORE SIMILAR TO THE WETTER MET NUMBERS TONIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH THE BROAD
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CANADIAN MARITIMES AND SLOWLY
SHIFTING EAST. MEANWHILE DURING THIS TIME...A RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS WITH A CLOSED LOW BEING THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM SIMON MOVING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. BY THE WEEKEND...A STRONG JET STREAK DIVES OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A TROUGH DEEPENS
FURTHER WITH THE REMNANTS OF SIMON MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS HAVE SEEM TO
COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AS WELL AS THE SUPER BLEND
MODEL...AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SUPER BLEND GAVE A
CONSENSUS OF LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO KEPT THIS SOLUTION
IN THE FORECAST.
FOR DETAILS IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AN EXITING FRONT BECOMES STALLED
AND ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ALONG THE TN VALLEY AND INTO KY DURING THE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD DUE TO STRONG RIDGING ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THIS SETS UP A SCENARIO WHERE NUMEROUS WAVES MOVE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY PROVIDING RAIN CHANCES EVERYDAY DURING THE EXTENDED. THIS
BEING A MORE SPRING LIKE PATTERN OCCURRING THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
VEGETATION ON THE DECLINE COULD MAKE FOR A CONCERN FOR FLOODING IN
THE EXTENDED. WITH THE REMNANTS OF SIMON...THE INFLUX OF GULF
MOISTURE AND AN ACTIVE JET FOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THE INGREDIENTS
MAY BE AVAILABLE FOR THIS EVENT. A FEW DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE
IRONED OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE MODELS HANDLING A TRANSITION IN THE
PATTERN BUT THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
CLEARING OF THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. A FEW OF THESE COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTH OF
THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. HAVE TIMED THE STORMS THROUGH THE TAF SITES
BY 23/00Z. WITH THESE...IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON WITH
BRIEF TIMES OF VLIFR ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 KTS...THOUGH
THEY WILL BE SUSTAINED FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.
OTHERWISE...THE CIGS WILL START TO CLEAR UP AFTER 03Z WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND WINDS SWITCHING TO THE WEST AT 5
TO 10 KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
138 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014
Morning convection has waned as the main cells have departed to
the east. There is still a slgt chance of a perturbation upstream
rotating down/across the FA and touching a storm off this pm, but
the HRRR suggests this is increasingly unlikely. Will maintain a
20 pop mention thru diurnal heating hours.
Drier air works down the column for our mid week and spells the
end of such as a frontal boundary drapes from the Plains across
the Mississippi and Ohio valleys sometime later in the week. This
sets the stage for an extended wet period that begins perhaps as
early as Wed night and continues thru the remainder of the short
term, into/thru the long term portion of the forecast.
.LONG TERM.../Friday through Tuesday/
Issued at 138 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2014
High confidence in a very wet extended forecast. Medium confidence
in the exact timing of the several rounds of rain events.
By Thursday into Friday a front will be stalled over the area
bringing rain to the region. This will combine with remnants of TS
Simon which should make landfall today. This will establish a
tropical connection to the southwest Pacific often referred to as a
monsoonal flow out west. This additional moisture will likely set
the stage for some flooding this weekend as the front meanders over
the heartland and especially early next week when yet another
stronger system will be bearing down on the area. This later system
could produce strong or even severe storms with very efficient/heavy
rain. At this time the models are not too aggressive with
instability but that is a little too far out to rule it out. Between
days 4 through 8 Friday through Wednesday morning we could see
between 3 to 5 inches for a storm total. The limiting factor will be
how much instability the atmosphere can muster.
Temperatures will go below normal Friday through Saturday then near
normal Sunday before falling back below by mid week next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014
MVFR cigs are still possible this pm but will be scattering out
toward the end of the day, leaving clear skies or just some
scattered mid to high clouds for the overnight. Gusty swlys will
shift to w-nwlys before diminishing.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
220 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
WITH A TORNADO WATCH BOX COMING HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADDRESS
THIS THREAT AND BETTER TIME THE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING. CLEARING IS
NOW PUSHING INTO WESTERN PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO SPIKE INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS
HEADING TO THE LOWER 60S. THE STORM THREAT LOOKS TO BE HIGHEST ALONG
THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED WITH THIS IN MIND
ALONG WITH ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY T AND TD GRIDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON PER THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND CONSSHORT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS
APPROACHING THE STATE FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST
KENTUCKY ARE STILL IN THE 50S FOR MOST SPOTS...BUT SOME LOWER 60S ARE
FOUND IN THE FAR SOUTH. HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY
SETTING THE STAGE...WHEN COMBINED WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL SPEED MAX...
FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS. A SPIN UP
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE WIND PROFILE AND POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASED INSTABILITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
STORMS WILL HAVE TO GET A BIT TALLER TODAY THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY
TO PRODUCE SIMILAR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS GIVEN HIGHER FREEZING LEVELS.
IN THE MEANTIME...A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CROSSING THE NORTHERN PARTS OF AREA WITH A CLUSTER MOVING EAST ALONG
THE TENNESSEE BORDER BRUSHING THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. WINDS ACROSS
EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE BREEZY TODAY FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO TIME THE
PCPN THIS AFTERNOON PER THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE. ALSO FINE
TUNED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BASED ON THE
LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THE UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. SENT OUT A BEEFED UP HWO EARLIER
THIS MORNING FOR THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. AN
UPDATED ZFP WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 739 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
UPDATED THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT TO REMOVE THE PRE FIRST PERIOD
THAT WAS INCLUDED WITH THE 4 AM FORECAST PACKAGE. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
NEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TAKING PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. NONE OF THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE
REALLY BEEN PICKING UP ON THIS ACTIVITY...SO THE FORECAST GRIDS
THROUGH 12Z TODAY WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS IN RADAR
IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE REGION. THE FORECAST FROM
12Z TODAY THROUGH 0Z THURSDAY WAS HANDLED BEST BY A COMBINATION OF
THE HRRR MODEL AND A MODIFIED VERSION OF THE LATEST CONSALL RUN.
AFTER THE CURRENT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FINALLY MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE
ACTION THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. AFTER THAT...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FIRE QUICKLY...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE
BASED OF A MUCH LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT. CURRENT OBS
ARE ALSO SUGGESTING THE PRESENCE OF SOME SORT OF WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ALSO
PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FORCING MECHANISM FOR SHOWER AND STORM
FORMATION LATER THIS MORNING. THAT ALL BEING SAID...THE MOST ACTIVE
PART OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. THE MOST INTENSE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
DURING PEAK HEATING AND WHILE A 40 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM.
SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTING WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR TODAY.
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PROBABLY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE SHIFTING OF WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OFF TO OUR EAST. HIGHS TODAY AND
TOMORROW SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 70 WITH TONIGHT/S LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUES TO LOOK IN THE OFFING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY AS A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GET HUNG UP ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT AND INDIVIDUAL BOUTS OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF MORE DUE TO ITS BETTER CONTINUITY
COMPARED TO THAT OF THE GFS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH
OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS BRINGING A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE
AS DEEPER TROUGHING BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A
FINAL COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA...POSSIBLY AS
LATE AS NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
CLEARING OF THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. A FEW OF THESE COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTH OF
THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. HAVE TIMED THE STORMS THROUGH THE TAF SITES
BY 23/00Z. WITH THESE...IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON WITH
BRIEF TIMES OF VLIFR ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 KTS...THOUGH
THEY WILL BE SUSTAINED FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.
OTHERWISE...THE CIGS WILL START TO CLEAR UP AFTER 03Z WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND WINDS SWITCHING TO THE WEST AT 5
TO 10 KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1251 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014
Morning convection has waned as the main cells have departed to
the east. There is still a slgt chance of a perturbation upstream
rotating down/across the FA and touching a storm off this pm, but
the HRRR suggests this is increasingly unlikely. Will maintain a
20 pop mention thru diurnal heating hours.
Drier air works down the column for our mid week and spells the
end of such as a frontal boundary drapes from the Plains across
the Mississippi and Ohio valleys sometime later in the week. This
sets the stage for an extended wet period that begins perhaps as
early as Wed night and continues thru the remainder of the short
term, into/thru the long term portion of the forecast.
.LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2014
The extended forecast continues to appear quite wet as a west-to-
east sfc frontal boundary will be in the general vicinity of the PAH
forecast area initially. The ECMWF and its ensemble mean was favored
by WPC for this forecast package, and this was generally followed,
especially late in the weekend and early next week, when it has a
much more amplified pattern across the CONUS than the GFS/GEM.
While the mid level flow over our region will be quasizonal through
the first half of the weekend, the nrn stream pattern should have
periodic impulses of shrtwv energy moving through, generating
intervals of rainfall, with little instability available for tstm
development. However, copious tropical Pacific moisture should allow
the possibility of heavy rainfall rates.
If the ECMWF forecast pans out, the aforementioned frontal boundary
will be shoved nwd as a warm front late Sunday and Sunday night,
followed by a deepening wave of low sfc pressure moving into the mid
MS river valley. The strength of this amplification is uncertain at
this time, but coverage of tstms will probably increase by Sunday.
Heavy rainfall rates are possible, and shear parameters suggest that
a few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out.
Based on this forecast, there should be a warm-up to above-average
temps by Day 7.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014
MVFR cigs are still possible this pm but will be scattering out
toward the end of the day, leaving clear skies or just some
scattered mid to high clouds for the overnight. Gusty swlys will
shift to w-nwlys before diminishing.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
123 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1058 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2014
Have updated the forecast to reflect the latest trends. Showers
continue to dissipate over central Kentucky, as warm-air advection
convection has been confined further to the south in TN. However,
strong thunderstorms have pushed into southern Indiana. These will
continue to push through, likely maintaining at least some strength
as they head into the region.
The main severe threat will be later on this afternoon, and the
threat continues to remain conditional at this time. It will all
hinge on just how much instability can be realized along a weak
front/wind shift pushing through this afternoon, and if
surface-based convection will fire along it. In addition, mid-level
height rises may tend to hinder updraft strength. Nonetheless, the
latest HRRR continues to suggest that scattered storms, potentially
supercells, will develop across central KY this afternoon. Large
hail will be the main threat, but damaging winds and even an
isolated tornado or two will be possible. Low-level shear is a bit
more impressive today than it was on Monday, so do think there is a
conditional tornado threat today if surface-based storms can
develop.
Issued at 710 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2014
Adjusted POPs to delay the next round of convection by a few hours.
A complex of showers with embedded thunder was headed east from
Illinois with a few stronger cells popping up in our area as of
7am. The latest HRRR indicates we`ll continue to see these stronger
cells form out ahead of the main line and those will be the ones to
watch as far as any immediate threat for strong to severe storms.
Also of note, the HRRR has the line strengthen toward mid to late
morning as it moves through the region.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2014
...Strong Storms Possible Today...
Early this morning convection has already begun to get going again
on arrival of an upper level shortwave from the south. Numerous
storms were popping up from Morgantown to Stanford early this
morning. The cells likely contain some small hail in addition to
heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Will continue to monitor
these storms closely as they grow upscale but overall not expecting
them to reach severe limits due to lack of instability currently.
This early morning wave of convection will be the first of
potentially three waves. This first wave looks to push through the
region during the pre-dawn hours. We should see a break in precip
around sunrise or shortly after before another wave of convection
arrives by mid to late morning courtesy of a potent shortwave diving
SE across MO/IL early this morning. Convection with this wave has
the potential to be strong to severe as a 50-60 kt h7 jet dives into
the area along with the nose of a potent upper level jet. Although
wind fields are impressive, available instability remains a big
question mark for today. The NAM and GFS seem to be quite generous
with instability which may work out like yesterday. However,
yesterday we were more aligned with the base axis of the upper
trough which seemed to be pretty efficient in clearing clouds after
rounds of convection possibly due to unidirectional wind fields
throughout the column. Today we`ll enter the western side of the
trough and upper level winds will become more NW which may result in
more clouds overall as clouds from convection upstream get blown
into our region. This is already the apparent trend looking at
satellite imagery early this morning. If we`re cloudy for most of
the day, think that storms will be limited in strength probably
remaining below severe limits. However, it should be noted, that if
we can some how get some clearing and instability that is advertised
by the NAM/GFS is realized, we could be in for a similar setup as
far as severe weather as we were yesterday with large hail, damaging
winds, and an isld tornado possible. The best time period for
strong to potentially severe storms with wave #2 is from mid morning
through mid afternoon.
Finally a third round of convection is progged by some of the short
range models during the evening hours over the Bluegrass and perhaps
south central KY as short range models indicate redevelopment
possible on boundaries left over by convection earlier in the day.
Again depending on how much instability is left and where those
boundaries lay out, the potential for strong to marginally severe
storms exists. Keep an eye on forecast updates throughout the day
in case storms do end up being on the stronger side.
Outside of any storm today, expect gusty southwest winds with gusts
in the 20-30 mph range common. High temperatures should reach the
upper 60s and lower 70s.
Tonight convection will clear the area as the upper trough and cold
front move east of the region. Low temps tonight will fall into the
upper 40s and lower 50s with some light fog possible.
Wednesday will be dry and sunny with highs in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2014
...A wet week expected beginning as early as late Thursday and
continuing into the weekend...
Late Wednesday, the upper air pattern will feature split flow across
the Rockies, with ridging across Idaho north of a 500mb trough
associated with the southern stream of the jet forecast over
Arizona. Both branches of the jet will come together over the plains
within a confluent low well south of a retreating deep low over
Hudson`s Bay.
Initially, dry air will reside over the Commonwealth within a light
wind regime. However, towards late Thursday, Gulf moisture, along
with moisture from the remains of former eastern Pacific hurricane
Simon, will push north across the southern Plains and the Lower
Mississippi Valley. By late Thursday, a frontal boundary will
develop eastwards of weak low pressure forecast to develop near the
Texas Panhandle. It will extend eastwards and lie somewhere over or
near the Commonwealth. This boundary, parallel to the mid and upper
level winds, will move little over several days and will become the
focus of several episodes of showers through at least Saturday.
Wednesday night will stay mostly clear with light winds and lows
ranging from near 50 to the lower 50s. Mid and upper level moisture
will begin to stream in from the west by mid to late Thursday, with
a change of rain developing by late Thursday or early Friday. Highs
Thursday will reach the lower 70s.
Various models vary on the exact placement of a nearly stationary
front from Late Thursday through Saturday. The latest NAM has this
boundary near Interstate 64 around dawn Friday; the GFS has it
around 75 miles farther north. Feel that moisture advection and
isentropic lift will bring rather widespread rains along and north
of this surface boundary. Precipitation will likely begin late
Thursday, mostly likely along or north of Interstate 64. Showers
will then overspread the entire region Friday, possibly bring
substantial rains of an inch or more. Some guidance has this surface
boundary sagging south late Friday into early Saturday, which may
allow a slowly southwards progression of precipitation towards the
Tennessee Valley. Both the ECMWF and to a much lessor extent the GFS
develop a 500mb trough over the Lower Mississippi Valley late
Sunday. Should this verify, additional rounds of precipitation may
continue Sunday and Monday.
It won`t rain the whole time from late Thursday through Monday.
Currently rain is quite likely from late Thursday through Friday,
with more episodic showers Saturday through Monday. Despite Monday`s
storms, we are relatively dry. However some locations this weekend
may eventually receive enough rain to create some runoff
problems.
With widespread cloud cover, temperatures Friday through Monday will
be somewhat seasonal, and depend on precipitation timing and the
eventual location of this afore-mentioned stationary front.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 121 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2014
Several rounds of convection continue to plague terminals early this
afternoon. One round continues to push east and will affect KLEX
very shortly. A second round is pushing in from the northwest, and
may build back to the southwest, affecting KSDF and KLEX. KBWG
looks to be on the southern edge of the better forcing with a
building capping inversion. Will cautiously take precip out of the
KBWG TAF with this issuance, and continue to monitor. Outside of
any convection, expect VFR conditions with gusty winds around 25
knots, perhaps approaching 30 knots (especially at KBWG) at times.
Otherwise, convection will push east of all terminals tonight, as
some drier air finally works into the region. Clouds should scatter
out as winds relax overnight into Wednesday, with VFR conditions
expected.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........KJD/AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......JSD
Aviation.......KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1105 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS
APPROACHING THE STATE FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST
KENTUCKY ARE STILL IN THE 50S FOR MOST SPOTS...BUT SOME LOWER 60S ARE
FOUND IN THE FAR SOUTH. HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY
SETTING THE STAGE...WHEN COMBINED WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL SPEED MAX...
FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS. A SPIN UP
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE WIND PROFILE AND POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASED INSTABILITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
STORMS WILL HAVE TO GET A BIT TALLER TODAY THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY
TO PRODUCE SIMILAR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS GIVEN HIGHER FREEZING LEVELS.
IN THE MEANTIME...A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CROSSING THE NORTHERN PARTS OF AREA WITH A CLUSTER MOVING EAST ALONG
THE TENNESSEE BORDER BRUSHING THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. WINDS ACROSS
EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE BREEZY TODAY FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO TIME THE
PCPN THIS AFTERNOON PER THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE. ALSO FINE
TUNED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BASED ON THE
LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THE UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. SENT OUT A BEEFED UP HWO EARLIER
THIS MORNING FOR THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. AN
UPDATED ZFP WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 739 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
UPDATED THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT TO REMOVE THE PRE FIRST PERIOD
THAT WAS INCLUDED WITH THE 4 AM FORECAST PACKAGE. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
NEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TAKING PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. NONE OF THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE
REALLY BEEN PICKING UP ON THIS ACTIVITY...SO THE FORECAST GRIDS
THROUGH 12Z TODAY WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS IN RADAR
IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE REGION. THE FORECAST FROM
12Z TODAY THROUGH 0Z THURSDAY WAS HANDLED BEST BY A COMBINATION OF
THE HRRR MODEL AND A MODIFIED VERSION OF THE LATEST CONSALL RUN.
AFTER THE CURRENT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FINALLY MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE
ACTION THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. AFTER THAT...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FIRE QUICKLY...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE
BASED OF A MUCH LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT. CURRENT OBS
ARE ALSO SUGGESTING THE PRESENCE OF SOME SORT OF WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ALSO
PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FORCING MECHANISM FOR SHOWER AND STORM
FORMATION LATER THIS MORNING. THAT ALL BEING SAID...THE MOST ACTIVE
PART OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. THE MOST INTENSE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
DURING PEAK HEATING AND WHILE A 40 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM.
SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTING WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR TODAY.
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PROBABLY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE SHIFTING OF WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OFF TO OUR EAST. HIGHS TODAY AND
TOMORROW SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 70 WITH TONIGHT/S LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUES TO LOOK IN THE OFFING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY AS A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GET HUNG UP ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT AND INDIVIDUAL BOUTS OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF MORE DUE TO ITS BETTER CONTINUITY
COMPARED TO THAT OF THE GFS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH
OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS BRINGING A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE
AS DEEPER TROUGHING BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A
FINAL COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA...POSSIBLY AS
LATE AS NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
JKL AND SJS WILL SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH 13 OR 14Z THIS
MORNING. AFTER THAT...THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE FREE FROM PRECIPITATION
FOR 2 OR 3 HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN MOVE
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN 16 AND 17Z. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF AND
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. BASED ON CURRENT DATA...THE TAF SITES WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE COMPLETELY FREE FROM RAIN UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE
TAF VALID PERIOD. SOME OF THE STORMS TODAY COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY. ANY AIRPORT
THAT EXPERIENCES A THUNDERSTORM TODAY COULD EXPERIENCE ANYWHERE FROM
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1101 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2014
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1058 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2014
Have updated the forecast to reflect the latest trends. Showers
continue to dissipate over central Kentucky, as warm-air advection
convection has been confined further to the south in TN. However,
strong thunderstorms have pushed into southern Indiana. These will
continue to push through, likely maintaining at least some strength
as they head into the region.
The main severe threat will be later on this afternoon, and the
threat continues to remain conditional at this time. It will all
hinge on just how much instability can be realized along a weak
front/wind shift pushing through this afternoon, and if
surface-based convection will fire along it. In addition, mid-level
height rises may tend to hinder updraft strength. Nonetheless, the
latest HRRR continues to suggest that scattered storms, potentially
supercells, will develop across central KY this afternoon. Large
hail will be the main threat, but damaging winds and even an
isolated tornado or two will be possible. Low-level shear is a bit
more impressive today than it was on Monday, so do think there is a
conditional tornado threat today if surface-based storms can
develop.
Issued at 710 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2014
Adjusted POPs to delay the next round of convection by a few hours.
A complex of showers with embedded thunder was headed east from
Illinois with a few stronger cells popping up in our area as of
7am. The latest HRRR indicates we`ll continue to see these stronger
cells form out ahead of the main line and those will be the ones to
watch as far as any immediate threat for strong to severe storms.
Also of note, the HRRR has the line strengthen toward mid to late
morning as it moves through the region.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2014
...Strong Storms Possible Today...
Early this morning convection has already begun to get going again
on arrival of an upper level shortwave from the south. Numerous
storms were popping up from Morgantown to Stanford early this
morning. The cells likely contain some small hail in addition to
heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Will continue to monitor
these storms closely as they grow upscale but overall not expecting
them to reach severe limits due to lack of instability currently.
This early morning wave of convection will be the first of
potentially three waves. This first wave looks to push through the
region during the pre-dawn hours. We should see a break in precip
around sunrise or shortly after before another wave of convection
arrives by mid to late morning courtesy of a potent shortwave diving
SE across MO/IL early this morning. Convection with this wave has
the potential to be strong to severe as a 50-60 kt h7 jet dives into
the area along with the nose of a potent upper level jet. Although
wind fields are impressive, available instability remains a big
question mark for today. The NAM and GFS seem to be quite generous
with instability which may work out like yesterday. However,
yesterday we were more aligned with the base axis of the upper
trough which seemed to be pretty efficient in clearing clouds after
rounds of convection possibly due to unidirectional wind fields
throughout the column. Today we`ll enter the western side of the
trough and upper level winds will become more NW which may result in
more clouds overall as clouds from convection upstream get blown
into our region. This is already the apparent trend looking at
satellite imagery early this morning. If we`re cloudy for most of
the day, think that storms will be limited in strength probably
remaining below severe limits. However, it should be noted, that if
we can some how get some clearing and instability that is advertised
by the NAM/GFS is realized, we could be in for a similar setup as
far as severe weather as we were yesterday with large hail, damaging
winds, and an isld tornado possible. The best time period for
strong to potentially severe storms with wave #2 is from mid morning
through mid afternoon.
Finally a third round of convection is progged by some of the short
range models during the evening hours over the Bluegrass and perhaps
south central KY as short range models indicate redevelopment
possible on boundaries left over by convection earlier in the day.
Again depending on how much instability is left and where those
boundaries lay out, the potential for strong to marginally severe
storms exists. Keep an eye on forecast updates throughout the day
in case storms do end up being on the stronger side.
Outside of any storm today, expect gusty southwest winds with gusts
in the 20-30 mph range common. High temperatures should reach the
upper 60s and lower 70s.
Tonight convection will clear the area as the upper trough and cold
front move east of the region. Low temps tonight will fall into the
upper 40s and lower 50s with some light fog possible.
Wednesday will be dry and sunny with highs in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2014
...A wet week expected beginning as early as late Thursday and
continuing into the weekend...
Late Wednesday, the upper air pattern will feature split flow across
the Rockies, with ridging across Idaho north of a 500mb trough
associated with the southern stream of the jet forecast over
Arizona. Both branches of the jet will come together over the plains
within a confluent low well south of a retreating deep low over
Hudson`s Bay.
Initially, dry air will reside over the Commonwealth within a light
wind regime. However, towards late Thursday, Gulf moisture, along
with moisture from the remains of former eastern Pacific hurricane
Simon, will push north across the southern Plains and the Lower
Mississippi Valley. By late Thursday, a frontal boundary will
develop eastwards of weak low pressure forecast to develop near the
Texas Panhandle. It will extend eastwards and lie somewhere over or
near the Commonwealth. This boundary, parallel to the mid and upper
level winds, will move little over several days and will become the
focus of several episodes of showers through at least Saturday.
Wednesday night will stay mostly clear with light winds and lows
ranging from near 50 to the lower 50s. Mid and upper level moisture
will begin to stream in from the west by mid to late Thursday, with
a change of rain developing by late Thursday or early Friday. Highs
Thursday will reach the lower 70s.
Various models vary on the exact placement of a nearly stationary
front from Late Thursday through Saturday. The latest NAM has this
boundary near Interstate 64 around dawn Friday; the GFS has it
around 75 miles farther north. Feel that moisture advection and
isentropic lift will bring rather widespread rains along and north
of this surface boundary. Precipitation will likely begin late
Thursday, mostly likely along or north of Interstate 64. Showers
will then overspread the entire region Friday, possibly bring
substantial rains of an inch or more. Some guidance has this surface
boundary sagging south late Friday into early Saturday, which may
allow a slowly southwards progression of precipitation towards the
Tennessee Valley. Both the ECMWF and to a much lessor extent the GFS
develop a 500mb trough over the Lower Mississippi Valley late
Sunday. Should this verify, additional rounds of precipitation may
continue Sunday and Monday.
It won`t rain the whole time from late Thursday through Monday.
Currently rain is quite likely from late Thursday through Friday,
with more episodic showers Saturday through Monday. Despite Monday`s
storms, we are relatively dry. However some locations this weekend
may eventually receive enough rain to create some runoff
problems.
With widespread cloud cover, temperatures Friday through Monday will
be somewhat seasonal, and depend on precipitation timing and the
eventual location of this afore-mentioned stationary front.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 700 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2014
Multiple rounds of showers and storms are expected for today
courtesy of continued shortwaves rounding the base of an upper
trough over the region. This first round has the potential to bring
IFR conditions to the terminals and perhaps some gusty winds as
well. Thus, included a tempo -tsra group for this morning. Most
short range models are in agreement that a second round of
convection should follow for this afternoon/evening. This second
batch has the potential to once again create IFR conditions as well
as gusty winds at the terminals. However, will try to focus on one
round of convection at a time and thus will hold off on flight
restrictions for this afternoon due to still a large window of
timing possibilities for t-storms to affect the terminals reducing
flight conditions. All convection has the potential to produce hail
with some potentially large hail possible. Outside of any t-storm,
SW-W winds will be gusty from late this morning through sunset with
gusts in the 25-30 kt range likely. Convection is expected to move
out of the region as the upper trough departs tonight.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........KJD
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......JSD
Aviation.......AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
640 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2014
.Update...
Updated aviation section for 12z taf issuance
&&
.SHORT TERM.../Today through Thursday night/
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2014
Another strong mid level impulse moving southeast toward the Lower
Ohio Valley this morning is responsible for widespread showers with
some isolated elevated convection. The strongest hail cores early
this morning have been over the Ozarks of south central MO. The RAP
model indicates a strong feed of moisture and elevated instability
into these storms /near 50 knots at 850 mb/. Mid level temps are
still very cold...producing steep 850/500 mb lapse rates over 7
C/km. The RAP indicates the 850 jet will translate eastward across
western KY early this morning. Some elevated hailers may affect
parts of our area early this morning...along with a widespread area
of light to moderate rain. Will go with categorical pops for many
areas this morning. Once the shortwave moves east of our area by
midday...the precip will diminish from west to east.
Similar to Monday...another surface trough/weak cold front will move
east across the Lower Ohio Valley during the afternoon. Once
again...there is some potential for isolated convection to develop
along this trough during the peak heating hours. Expect coverage to
be scattered at best...since the mid level shortwave will be
departing to our east and low level convergence will be weakening
along the dissipating surface trough. Despite very marginal
instability with mixed layer capes around 500 j/kg...an isolated
wind or hail event is possible given steep mid level lapse rates and
strong winds aloft /over 60 knots at 500 mb/.
Any lingering convection will end early this evening as the surface
trough moves south of Kentucky and the low levels stabilize.
Otherwise...mainly clear skies are expected tonight as drier air
arrives on light north winds. Low temps will fall into the upper 40s
to lower 50s.
On Wednesday...weak surface high pressure will pass almost directly
overhead. Abundant sunshine is expected...along with light winds and
seasonably warm temps in the 70s.
On Wednesday night and Thursday...a surface warm front is forecast
to develop over the Lower Ohio Valley and southeast Missouri. Clouds
will increase...along with the chance of showers. Instability is
forecast to be very minimal until the southwest low level flow
increases Thursday night. Therefore...thunder chances look very low
at least until Thursday night.
On Thursday night...the warm front should become quasi stationary
over southwest Indiana and southern Illinois. Showers and storms
should become rather numerous along the front as low level
convergence sharpens. However...most qpf guidance has decreased
somewhat...possibly because the main upper shortwave trough will
still be hanging back over the western high Plains.
.LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2014
The extended forecast continues to appear quite wet as a west-to-
east sfc frontal boundary will be in the general vicinity of the PAH
forecast area initially. The ECMWF and its ensemble mean was favored
by WPC for this forecast package, and this was generally followed,
especially late in the weekend and early next week, when it has a
much more amplified pattern across the CONUS than the GFS/GEM.
While the mid level flow over our region will be quasizonal through
the first half of the weekend, the nrn stream pattern should have
periodic impulses of shrtwv energy moving through, generating
intervals of rainfall, with little instability available for tstm
development. However, copious tropical Pacific moisture should allow
the possibility of heavy rainfall rates.
If the ECMWF forecast pans out, the aforementioned frontal boundary
will be shoved nwd as a warm front late Sunday and Sunday night,
followed by a deepening wave of low sfc pressure moving into the mid
MS river valley. The strength of this amplification is uncertain at
this time, but coverage of tstms will probably increase by Sunday.
Heavy rainfall rates are possible, and shear parameters suggest that
a few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out.
Based on this forecast, there should be a warm-up to above-average
temps by Day 7.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2014
Widespread showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will end from
west to east this morning. Prevailing conditions will remain vfr
during these showers...but occasional periods of mvfr are likely.
Will mention vcts at the kevv/kowb sites due to clusters of storms
in southern Illinois.
Gusty west to southwest winds in the wake of the system will bring
drier air this afternoon. A few isolated showers and storms are
possible after 18z...but they should be mainly southeast of the
kpah/kowb areas.
Gusty winds will diminish around sunset. Light winds and mostly
clear skies overnight may lead to a little ground fog...mainly at
kcgi. Appears too shallow and patchy to mention in taf.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...DAB
AVIATION...MY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
739 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 739 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
UPDATED THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT TO REMOVE THE PRE FIRST PERIOD
THAT WAS INCLUDED WITH THE 4 AM FORECAST PACKAGE. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
NEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TAKING PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. NONE OF THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE
REALLY BEEN PICKING UP ON THIS ACTIVITY...SO THE FORECAST GRIDS
THROUGH 12Z TODAY WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS IN RADAR
IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE REGION. THE FORECAST FROM
12Z TODAY THROUGH 0Z THURSDAY WAS HANDLED BEST BY A COMBINATION OF
THE HRRR MODEL AND A MODIFIED VERSION OF THE LATEST CONSALL RUN.
AFTER THE CURRENT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FINALLY MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE
ACTION THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. AFTER THAT...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FIRE QUICKLY...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE
BASED OF A MUCH LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT. CURRENT OBS
ARE ALSO SUGGESTING THE PRESENCE OF SOME SORT OF WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ALSO
PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FORCING MECHANISM FOR SHOWER AND STORM
FORMATION LATER THIS MORNING. THAT ALL BEING SAID...THE MOST ACTIVE
PART OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. THE MOST INTENSE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
DURING PEAK HEATING AND WHILE A 40 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM.
SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTING WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR TODAY.
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PROBABLY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE SHIFTING OF WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OFF TO OUR EAST. HIGHS TODAY AND
TOMORROW SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 70 WITH TONIGHTS LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUES TO LOOK IN THE OFFING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY AS A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GET HUNG UP ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT AND INDIVIDUAL BOUTS OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF MORE DUE TO ITS BETTER CONTINUITY
COMPARED TO THAT OF THE GFS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH
OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS BRINGING A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE
AS DEEPER TROUGHING BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A
FINAL COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA...POSSIBLY AS
LATE AS NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
JKL AND SJS WILL SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH 13 OR 14Z THIS
MORNING. AFTER THAT...THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE FREE FROM PRECIPITATION
FOR 2 OR 3 HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN MOVE
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN 16 AND 17Z. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF AND
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. BASED ON CURRENT DATA...THE TAF SITES WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE COMPLETELY FREE FROM RAIN UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE
TAF VALID PERIOD. SOME OF THE STORMS TODAY COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY. ANY AIRPORT
THAT EXPERIENCES A THUNDERSTORM TODAY COULD EXPERIENCE ANYWHERE FROM
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
733 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
NEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TAKING PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. NONE OF THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE
REALLY BEEN PICKING UP ON THIS ACTIVITY...SO THE FORECAST GRIDS
THROUGH 12Z TODAY WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS IN RADAR
IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE REGION. THE FORECAST FROM
12Z TODAY THROUGH 0Z THURSDAY WAS HANDLED BEST BY A COMBINATION OF
THE HRRR MODEL AND A MODIFIED VERSION OF THE LATEST CONSALL RUN.
AFTER THE CURRENT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FINALLY MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE
ACTION THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. AFTER THAT...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FIRE QUICKLY...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE
BASED OF A MUCH LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT. CURRENT OBS
ARE ALSO SUGGESTING THE PRESENCE OF SOME SORT OF WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ALSO
PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FORCING MECHANISM FOR SHOWER AND STORM
FORMATION LATER THIS MORNING. THAT ALL BEING SAID...THE MOST ACTIVE
PART OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. THE MOST INTENSE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
DURING PEAK HEATING AND WHILE A 40 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM.
SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTING WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR TODAY.
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PROBABLY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE SHIFTING OF WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OFF TO OUR EAST. HIGHS TODAY AND
TOMORROW SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 70 WITH TONIGHTS LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUES TO LOOK IN THE OFFING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY AS A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GET HUNG UP ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT AND INDIVIDUAL BOUTS OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF MORE DUE TO ITS BETTER CONTINUITY
COMPARED TO THAT OF THE GFS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH
OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS BRINGING A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE
AS DEEPER TROUGHING BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A
FINAL COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA...POSSIBLY AS
LATE AS NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
JKL AND SJS WILL SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH 13 OR 14Z THIS
MORNING. AFTER THAT...THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE FREE FROM PRECIPITATION
FOR 2 OR 3 HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN MOVE
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN 16 AND 17Z. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF AND
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. BASED ON CURRENT DATA...THE TAF SITES WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE COMPLETELY FREE FROM RAIN UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE
TAF VALID PERIOD. SOME OF THE STORMS TODAY COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY. ANY AIRPORT
THAT EXPERIENCES A THUNDERSTORM TODAY COULD EXPERIENCE ANYWHERE FROM
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
712 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2014
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 710 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2014
Adjusted POPs to delay the next round of convection by a few hours.
A complex of showers with embedded thunder was headed east from
Illinois with a few stronger cells popping up in our area as of
7am. The latest HRRR indicates we`ll continue to see these stronger
cells form out ahead of the main line and those will be the ones to
watch as far as any immediate threat for strong to severe storms.
Also of note, the HRRR has the line strengthen toward mid to late
morning as it moves through the region.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2014
...Strong Storms Possible Today...
Early this morning convection has already begun to get going again
on arrival of an upper level shortwave from the south. Numerous
storms were popping up from Morgantown to Stanford early this
morning. The cells likely contain some small hail in addition to
heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Will continue to monitor
these storms closely as they grow upscale but overall not expecting
them to reach severe limits due to lack of instability currently.
This early morning wave of convection will be the first of
potentially three waves. This first wave looks to push through the
region during the pre-dawn hours. We should see a break in precip
around sunrise or shortly after before another wave of convection
arrives by mid to late morning courtesy of a potent shortwave diving
SE across MO/IL early this morning. Convection with this wave has
the potential to be strong to severe as a 50-60 kt h7 jet dives into
the area along with the nose of a potent upper level jet. Although
wind fields are impressive, available instability remains a big
question mark for today. The NAM and GFS seem to be quite generous
with instability which may work out like yesterday. However,
yesterday we were more aligned with the base axis of the upper
trough which seemed to be pretty efficient in clearing clouds after
rounds of convection possibly due to unidirectional wind fields
throughout the column. Today we`ll enter the western side of the
trough and upper level winds will become more NW which may result in
more clouds overall as clouds from convection upstream get blown
into our region. This is already the apparent trend looking at
satellite imagery early this morning. If we`re cloudy for most of
the day, think that storms will be limited in strength probably
remaining below severe limits. However, it should be noted, that if
we can some how get some clearing and instability that is advertised
by the NAM/GFS is realized, we could be in for a similar setup as
far as severe weather as we were yesterday with large hail, damaging
winds, and an isld tornado possible. The best time period for
strong to potentially severe storms with wave #2 is from mid morning
through mid afternoon.
Finally a third round of convection is progged by some of the short
range models during the evening hours over the Bluegrass and perhaps
south central KY as short range models indicate redevelopment
possible on boundaries left over by convection earlier in the day.
Again depending on how much instability is left and where those
boundaries lay out, the potential for strong to marginally severe
storms exists. Keep an eye on forecast updates throughout the day
in case storms do end up being on the stronger side.
Outside of any storm today, expect gusty southwest winds with gusts
in the 20-30 mph range common. High temperatures should reach the
upper 60s and lower 70s.
Tonight convection will clear the area as the upper trough and cold
front move east of the region. Low temps tonight will fall into the
upper 40s and lower 50s with some light fog possible.
Wednesday will be dry and sunny with highs in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2014
...A wet week expected beginning as early as late Thursday and
continuing into the weekend...
Late Wednesday, the upper air pattern will feature split flow across
the Rockies, with ridging across Idaho north of a 500mb trough
associated with the southern stream of the jet forecast over
Arizona. Both branches of the jet will come together over the plains
within a confluent low well south of a retreating deep low over
Hudson`s Bay.
Initially, dry air will reside over the Commonwealth within a light
wind regime. However, towards late Thursday, Gulf moisture, along
with moisture from the remains of former eastern Pacific hurricane
Simon, will push north across the southern Plains and the Lower
Mississippi Valley. By late Thursday, a frontal boundary will
develop eastwards of weak low pressure forecast to develop near the
Texas Panhandle. It will extend eastwards and lie somewhere over or
near the Commonwealth. This boundary, parallel to the mid and upper
level winds, will move little over several days and will become the
focus of several episodes of showers through at least Saturday.
Wednesday night will stay mostly clear with light winds and lows
ranging from near 50 to the lower 50s. Mid and upper level moisture
will begin to stream in from the west by mid to late Thursday, with
a change of rain developing by late Thursday or early Friday. Highs
Thursday will reach the lower 70s.
Various models vary on the exact placement of a nearly stationary
front from Late Thursday through Saturday. The latest NAM has this
boundary near Interstate 64 around dawn Friday; the GFS has it
around 75 miles farther north. Feel that moisture advection and
isentropic lift will bring rather widespread rains along and north
of this surface boundary. Precipitation will likely begin late
Thursday, mostly likely along or north of Interstate 64. Showers
will then overspread the entire region Friday, possibly bring
substantial rains of an inch or more. Some guidance has this surface
boundary sagging south late Friday into early Saturday, which may
allow a slowly southwards progression of precipitation towards the
Tennessee Valley. Both the ECMWF and to a much lessor extent the GFS
develop a 500mb trough over the Lower Mississippi Valley late
Sunday. Should this verify, additional rounds of precipitation may
continue Sunday and Monday.
It won`t rain the whole time from late Thursday through Monday.
Currently rain is quite likely from late Thursday through Friday,
with more episodic showers Saturday through Monday. Despite Monday`s
storms, we are relatively dry. However some locations this weekend
may eventually receive enough rain to create some runoff
problems.
With widespread cloud cover, temperatures Friday through Monday will
be somewhat seasonal, and depend on precipitation timing and the
eventual location of this afore-mentioned stationary front.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 700 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2014
Multiple rounds of showers and storms are expected for today
courtesy of continued shortwaves rounding the base of an upper
trough over the region. This first round has the potential to bring
IFR conditions to the terminals and perhaps some gusty winds as
well. Thus, included a tempo -tsra group for this morning. Most
short range models are in agreement that a second round of
convection should follow for this afternoon/evening. This second
batch has the potential to once again create IFR conditions as well
as gusty winds at the terminals. However, will try to focus on one
round of convection at a time and thus will hold off on flight
restrictions for this afternoon due to still a large window of
timing possibilities for t-storms to affect the terminals reducing
flight conditions. All convection has the potential to produce hail
with some potentially large hail possible. Outside of any t-storm,
SW-W winds will be gusty from late this morning through sunset with
gusts in the 25-30 kt range likely. Convection is expected to move
out of the region as the upper trough departs tonight.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......JSD
Aviation.......AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
453 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
NEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TAKING PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. NONE OF THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE
REALLY BEEN PICKING UP ON THIS ACTIVITY...SO THE FORECAST GRIDS
THROUGH 12Z TODAY WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS IN RADAR
IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE REGION. THE FORECAST FROM
12Z TODAY THROUGH 0Z THURSDAY WAS HANDLED BEST BY A COMBINATION OF
THE HRRR MODEL AND A MODIFIED VERSION OF THE LATEST CONSALL RUN.
AFTER THE CURRENT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FINALLY MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE
ACTION THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. AFTER THAT...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FIRE QUICKLY...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE
BASED OF A MUCH LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT. CURRENT OBS
ARE ALSO SUGGESTING THE PRESENCE OF SOME SORT OF WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ALSO
PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FORCING MECHANISM FOR SHOWER AND STORM
FORMATION LATER THIS MORNING. THAT ALL BEING SAID...THE MOST ACTIVE
PART OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. THE MOST INTENSE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
DURING PEAK HEATING AND WHILE A 40 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM.
SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTING WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR TODAY.
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PROBABLY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE SHIFTING OF WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OFF TO OUR EAST. HIGHS TODAY AND
TOMORROW SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 70 WITH TONIGHTS LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUES TO LOOK IN THE OFFING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY AS A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GET HUNG UP ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT AND INDIVIDUAL BOUTS OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF MORE DUE TO ITS BETTER CONTINUITY
COMPARED TO THAT OF THE GFS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH
OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS BRINGING A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE
AS DEEPER TROUGHING BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A
FINAL COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA...POSSIBLY AS
LATE AS NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
THE INITIAL FOCUS IN THE TAFS WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTING JKL TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. THESE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS
AT THE AIRPORT BETWEEN 530 AND 6Z. BASED ON UPSTREAM RADAR
IMAGERY...IT APPEARS THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE RELATIVE FREE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
COVER...AND PERHAPS SOME FOG...WILL LIKELY PLAGUE THE TAF SITES FROM
TIME TO TIME THROUGH 15Z OR SO TODAY. THE NEXT MAJOR ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 16 OR 17Z
TODAY...LASTING THROUGH AROUND 0Z THIS EVENING...AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.
AFTER 0Z...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
350 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2014
.SHORT TERM.../Today through Thursday night/
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2014
Another strong mid level impulse moving southeast toward the Lower
Ohio Valley this morning is responsible for widespread showers with
some isolated elevated convection. The strongest hail cores early
this morning have been over the Ozarks of south central MO. The RAP
model indicates a strong feed of moisture and elevated instability
into these storms /near 50 knots at 850 mb/. Mid level temps are
still very cold...producing steep 850/500 mb lapse rates over 7
C/km. The RAP indicates the 850 jet will translate eastward across
western KY early this morning. Some elevated hailers may affect
parts of our area early this morning...along with a widespread area
of light to moderate rain. Will go with categorical pops for many
areas this morning. Once the shortwave moves east of our area by
midday...the precip will diminish from west to east.
Similar to Monday...another surface trough/weak cold front will move
east across the Lower Ohio Valley during the afternoon. Once
again...there is some potential for isolated convection to develop
along this trough during the peak heating hours. Expect coverage to
be scattered at best...since the mid level shortwave will be
departing to our east and low level convergence will be weakening
along the dissipating surface trough. Despite very marginal
instability with mixed layer capes around 500 j/kg...an isolated
wind or hail event is possible given steep mid level lapse rates and
strong winds aloft /over 60 knots at 500 mb/.
Any lingering convection will end early this evening as the surface
trough moves south of Kentucky and the low levels stabilize.
Otherwise...mainly clear skies are expected tonight as drier air
arrives on light north winds. Low temps will fall into the upper 40s
to lower 50s.
On Wednesday...weak surface high pressure will pass almost directly
overhead. Abundant sunshine is expected...along with light winds and
seasonably warm temps in the 70s.
On Wednesday night and Thursday...a surface warm front is forecast
to develop over the Lower Ohio Valley and southeast Missouri. Clouds
will increase...along with the chance of showers. Instability is
forecast to be very minimal until the southwest low level flow
increases Thursday night. Therefore...thunder chances look very low
at least until Thursday night.
On Thursday night...the warm front should become quasi stationary
over southwest Indiana and southern Illinois. Showers and storms
should become rather numerous along the front as low level
convergence sharpens. However...most qpf guidance has decreased
somewhat...possibly because the main upper shortwave trough will
still be hanging back over the western high Plains.
.LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2014
The extended forecast continues to appear quite wet as a west-to-
east sfc frontal boundary will be in the general vicinity of the PAH
forecast area initially. The ECMWF and its ensemble mean was favored
by WPC for this forecast package, and this was generally followed,
especially late in the weekend and early next week, when it has a
much more amplified pattern across the CONUS than the GFS/GEM.
While the mid level flow over our region will be quasizonal through
the first half of the weekend, the nrn stream pattern should have
periodic impulses of shrtwv energy moving through, generating
intervals of rainfall, with little instability available for tstm
development. However, copious tropical Pacific moisture should allow
the possibility of heavy rainfall rates.
If the ECMWF forecast pans out, the aforementioned frontal boundary
will be shoved nwd as a warm front late Sunday and Sunday night,
followed by a deepening wave of low sfc pressure moving into the mid
MS river valley. The strength of this amplification is uncertain at
this time, but coverage of tstms will probably increase by Sunday.
Heavy rainfall rates are possible, and shear parameters suggest that
a few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out.
Based on this forecast, there should be a warm-up to above-average
temps by Day 7.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
Expect shower and thunderstorm activity and VFR clouds to increase
late tonight as an upper level disturbance drops southeast out of
the plains. Precipitation and clouds should decrease from the west
starting around 20Z. South to southwest winds AOB 5 knots
overnight should increase to 10-12 knots with gusts to 18-20
knots out of the southwest to west starting around 16Z, veer
around to the west around 20Z, then drop off to AOB 10 knots out
of the west around 00Z.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...DAB
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
345 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
NEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TAKING PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. NONE OF THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE
REALLY BEEN PICKING UP ON THIS ACTIVITY...SO THE FORECAST GRIDS
THROUGH 12Z TODAY WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS IN RADAR
IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE REGION. THE FORECAST FROM
12Z TODAY THROUGH 0Z THURSDAY WAS HANDLED BEST BY A COMBINATION OF
THE HRRR MODEL AND A MODIFIED VERSION OF THE LATEST CONSALL RUN.
AFTER THE CURRENT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FINALLY MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE
ACTION THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. AFTER THAT...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FIRE QUICKLY...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE
BASED OF A MUCH LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT. CURRENT OBS
ARE ALSO SUGGESTING THE PRESENCE OF SOME SORT OF WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ALSO
PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FORCING MECHANISM FOR SHOWER AND STORM
FORMATION LATER THIS MORNING. THAT ALL BEING SAID...THE MOST ACTIVE
PART OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. THE MOST INTENSE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
DURING PEAK HEATING AND WHILE A 40 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM.
SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTING WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR TODAY.
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PROBABLY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE SHIFTING OF WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OFF TO OUR EAST. HIGHS TODAY AND
TOMORROW SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 70 WITH TONIGHTS LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT...AT LEAST TO START THE
EXTENDED...BEFORE DIVERGING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEY ALL SHOW A
VERY DEEP AND LARGE MID LEVEL LOW SPINNING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.
A NODE OF THIS WILL BE SWEEPING NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT. AS
HEIGHTS SLOWLY START TO COME UP OVER KENTUCKY A SMALLER TROUGH WILL
BE MAKING ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY.
THIS WESTERN TROUGH WILL OPEN UP AND SEND IT ENERGY EAST INTO THE
FAST FLOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL...
THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LOW THAN THE GEM AND GFS.
THIS STRENGTH ALSO MANIFESTS ITSELF DOWNSTREAM OVER KENTUCKY AS A
BIT MORE RIDGING THROUGH THE WEEKEND THAN THE OTHERS. FOR
SUNDAY...THE GFS SEEMS MOST OUT OF STEP WITH ITS PATTERN COMPARED TO
THE OTHER MODELS AS IT HAS FLAT AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER KENTUCKY.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF...SUPPORTED BY THE GEM...STARTS TO BRING A FAST
MOVING AND QUICKLY DEEPENING TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL FURTHER CONSOLIDATE INTO MONDAY AS A DEEP LOW OVER THE MIDWEST
WITH A SWEEP OF ENERGY PRESSING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL FAVOR THE
MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND THEN LEAN MORE TOWARD
THE ECMWF FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL OCCUR AS AMPLE
MOISTURE...FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MEETS UP WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY
AND A COUPLE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL LIFT
INTO KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY
OVER THE AREA AS COLD AIR TO THE NORTH AND WARM TO THE SOUTH MAKES
FOR A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE STATE. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH AGAIN AS A BONA FIDE WARM FRONT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP SFC LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHER
PLAINS. THIS LATTER SYSTEM WILL THEN LOOK TO SWING ITS ELONGATED
COLD FRONT INTO THIS PART OF THE STATE LATER MONDAY. WITH THE
FORECAST AREA CAUGHT BETWEEN SEASONS THIS EXTENDED...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...BUT WITH A SMALLER THAN AVERAGE DIURNAL RANGE
DUE TO EXTRA CLOUDS AND PCPN AROUND.
THE CR GRID LOAD PROVED TO BE AN ADEQUATE START TO THE EXTENDED
GRIDS...THOUGH DID ADJUST THE POPS A TAD TOWARD THE DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTION FROM THE ECMWF THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. GIVEN
THE FRONTS NEARBY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIODS DID NOT DO TOO MUCH
ADJUSTING TO THE TEMPERATURES AS THE TERRAIN IMPACT WILL BE
RELATIVELY MUTED...EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN A MODERATE RIDGE
TO VALLEY SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
THE INITIAL FOCUS IN THE TAFS WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTING JKL TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. THESE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS
AT THE AIRPORT BETWEEN 530 AND 6Z. BASED ON UPSTREAM RADAR
IMAGERY...IT APPEARS THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE RELATIVE FREE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
COVER...AND PERHAPS SOME FOG...WILL LIKELY PLAGUE THE TAF SITES FROM
TIME TO TIME THROUGH 15Z OR SO TODAY. THE NEXT MAJOR ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 16 OR 17Z
TODAY...LASTING THROUGH AROUND 0Z THIS EVENING...AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.
AFTER 0Z...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
128 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1112 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVING FROM CENTRAL AND INTO
EASTERN KY...THERE APPEARS TO BE A BACK EDGE TO THIS ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SHOULD WANE FROM WEST
TO EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A RELATIVE LULL IN ACTIVITY FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...CHANCES
WILL INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD SUNRISE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
UNSETTLED WEATHER DUE TO CONVECTIVE CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH
WORKING INTO THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE EVENING...IF NOT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT
IS ALSO DROPPING SOUTH TO NEAR THE OH RIVER AND GENERALLY SHOULD WASH
OUT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW WORKING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION IS LEADING TO CONTINUED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA AND EVEN SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOUISVILLE
VICINITY.
RECENT HRRR RUNS POINT TOWARD THE CURRENT BATCH OF CONVECTION
WORKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH OVER THE NEXT TWO THREE
HOURS...BUT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING THERE.
CONVECTION WORKING ACROSS CENTRAL KY MAY SURVIVE INTO THE NORTHERN
CWA NEAR INTERSTATE 64 AS WELL. WITH ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES
TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT...ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH WILL
PROBABLY EXPERIENCE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION PAST MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A RELATIVE LULL MAY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT...AFTER 2 AM...
BETWEEN THE UPPER DISTURBANCES.WITH TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS THEY
ARE ALOFT...HAIL... MOSTLY LIKELY SUB SEVERE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. TRAINING WILL
ALSO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION TAKES
PLACE HAS BEEN THE BIGGEST QUESTION TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AN ISSUE DURING THE PERIOD. IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO GET SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION TODAY FOR STRONG CONVECTION. A FEW STORMS HAVE GONE
THE EXTRA MILE AND PRODUCED SOME HAIL DUE TO FREEZING LEVELS ONLY
AROUND 8K FEET. WITH A FEW HOLES IN THE CLOUDS AND PEAK HEATING
OCCURRING...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO APPROACH. WILL LOOK FOR THE
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST TO MARCH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ALOFT ARE FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WITH BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR...BUT
INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK. THE SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED...WITH WATCHES/WARNINGS A POSSIBILITY IF ENOUGH LATE DAY
HEATING OCCURS. AFTER THIS CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THE NEXT MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR STORMS IS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER IMPULSE ALOFT APPROACHES. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH
DEVELOP CONVECTION. WHILE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...A BLEND OF RECENT GFS
AND NAM RUNS WOULD SUGGEST THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME BEING IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS PERSISTENT IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
ALONG A COLD FRONT AS IT ENTERS OUR AREA FROM THE NW ON TUESDAY
EVENING. THE GFS HAS NOT DEPICTED THIS. HAVE USED A POP GRADIENT FROM
NW TO SE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
SPENDING THE LONGEST TIME AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SEEING THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE FRONT BRINGS IN A STABLE
AIR MASS. SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL STILL EXIST FOR SEVERE STORMS ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. ONCE AGAIN...IF SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION CAN TAKE PLACE...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN. AT
THIS POINT...INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PRESENT BUT RATHER WEAK.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT...AT LEAST TO START THE
EXTENDED...BEFORE DIVERGING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEY ALL SHOW A
VERY DEEP AND LARGE MID LEVEL LOW SPINNING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.
A NODE OF THIS WILL BE SWEEPING NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT. AS
HEIGHTS SLOWLY START TO COME UP OVER KENTUCKY A SMALLER TROUGH WILL
BE MAKING ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY.
THIS WESTERN TROUGH WILL OPEN UP AND SEND IT ENERGY EAST INTO THE
FAST FLOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL...
THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LOW THAN THE GEM AND GFS.
THIS STRENGTH ALSO MANIFESTS ITSELF DOWNSTREAM OVER KENTUCKY AS A
BIT MORE RIDGING THROUGH THE WEEKEND THAN THE OTHERS. FOR
SUNDAY...THE GFS SEEMS MOST OUT OF STEP WITH ITS PATTERN COMPARED TO
THE OTHER MODELS AS IT HAS FLAT AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER KENTUCKY.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF...SUPPORTED BY THE GEM...STARTS TO BRING A FAST
MOVING AND QUICKLY DEEPENING TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL FURTHER CONSOLIDATE INTO MONDAY AS A DEEP LOW OVER THE MIDWEST
WITH A SWEEP OF ENERGY PRESSING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL FAVOR THE
MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND THEN LEAN MORE TOWARD
THE ECMWF FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL OCCUR AS AMPLE
MOISTURE...FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MEETS UP WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY
AND A COUPLE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL LIFT
INTO KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY
OVER THE AREA AS COLD AIR TO THE NORTH AND WARM TO THE SOUTH MAKES
FOR A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE STATE. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH AGAIN AS A BONA FIDE WARM FRONT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP SFC LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHER
PLAINS. THIS LATTER SYSTEM WILL THEN LOOK TO SWING ITS ELONGATED
COLD FRONT INTO THIS PART OF THE STATE LATER MONDAY. WITH THE
FORECAST AREA CAUGHT BETWEEN SEASONS THIS EXTENDED...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...BUT WITH A SMALLER THAN AVERAGE DIURNAL RANGE
DUE TO EXTRA CLOUDS AND PCPN AROUND.
THE CR GRID LOAD PROVED TO BE AN ADEQUATE START TO THE EXTENDED
GRIDS...THOUGH DID ADJUST THE POPS A TAD TOWARD THE DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTION FROM THE ECMWF THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. GIVEN
THE FRONTS NEARBY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIODS DID NOT DO TOO MUCH
ADJUSTING TO THE TEMPERATURES AS THE TERRAIN IMPACT WILL BE
RELATIVELY MUTED...EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN A MODERATE RIDGE
TO VALLEY SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
THE INITIAL FOCUS IN THE TAFS WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTING JKL TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. THESE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS
AT THE AIRPORT BETWEEN 530 AND 6Z. BASED ON UPSTREAM RADAR
IMAGERY...IT APPEARS THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE RELATIVE FREE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
COVER...AND PERHAPS SOME FOG...WILL LIKELY PLAGUE THE TAF SITES FROM
TIME TO TIME THROUGH 15Z OR SO TODAY. THE NEXT MAJOR ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 16 OR 17Z
TODAY...LASTING THROUGH AROUND 0Z THIS EVENING...AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.
AFTER 0Z...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
649 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH
QUEBEC. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
645 AM UPDATE...LOCAL RADAR INDICATES RAIN IS MAKING ITS WAY
TOWARD NORTHWESTERN MAINE THIS MORNING. THE HRRR MODEL HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, AND
IT HAS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN MOVING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
9-1O AM. THE HRRR CAN OFTEN RUN AN HOUR OR TWO SLOW, AND WITH
RADAR RETURNS SHOWING UP JUST WEST OF THE QUEBEC/MAINE BORDER
ATTM, HAVE SPED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN JUST A BIT FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALSO REMOVED FOG FROM THIS MORNING`S FORECAST
AS IT HAS BEEN LIMITED BY INCOMING CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE,
EVERYTHING ELSE IS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL VERY SLOWLY SPIN EASTWARD
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE FRONT EDGE
OF THIS LOW, TREKKING JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, MOVING
INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THIS BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT NORTH
AND EAST THIS MORNING, MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BY NOON TIME. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
BE ACROSS WESTERN MAINE AND THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY, WHICH ARE
CLOSEST TO THE BEST DYNAMICS, BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AT LEAST A CHANCE
OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF OUR REGION, EXCEPT FAR DOWNEAST. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY,
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF ROUTE 11. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY
WILL BE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. THESE WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AS A
30-40KT 925MB JET MOVES OVERHEAD. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW AT
LEAST SOME OF THIS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN REGION AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST. THIS
INCREASING SOUTH FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
EXPECT WE`LL SEE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE RAIN TONIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. HOWEVER,
THE BREAK WILL BE VERY BRIEF AS ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL MOVE FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EVEN IF THE
STEADY RAIN STOPS TONIGHT, PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY AS MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED AT LOW LEVELS. WINDS WILL EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT LULL
AS WELL, BUT THIS TOO WILL BE BRIEF AS THEY INCREASE TOWARD
DAYBREAK. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME OF THE GUIDANCE, THE NAM IN
PARTICULAR, HAS AN AREA OF DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY (300-500
J/KG) WORKING INTO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, FEEL THAT THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE (THE GFS HAS LESS THAN 100
J/KG). WHILE A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO CAN`T BE TOTALLY RULED
OUT, COVERAGE WAS DEEMED TO BE NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD, IN THE 50S AREAWIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS OVRALL JUST A TAD SLOWER WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL RN BAND
FOR WED THAN YSTDY ATTM...SO MAY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR 6 HRLY QPF
TMG FOR WED. A COUPLE OF MODELS LIKE THE 00Z GFS AND NAM ALSO
INDICATE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE LATE WED MORN INTO AFTN
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT LOW TOP TSTMS...ACCOMPANIED
BY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HARD TO SAY WHETHER
THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS FOR ORGANIZED LOW TOP
TSTM STRUCTURES ATTM...BUT WE DID INCLUDE HEAVY RNFL AND GUSTY
STRONG WIND ENHANCED WORDING WITH CATEGORICAL RNFL POPS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT FROM LATE MORN INTO AFTN. STRONG WINDS ALF WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A PD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AS WELL. WE BEEFED UP WIND SPEEDS WED SPCLY LATE
MORN INTO AFTN WHERE WE INDICATE WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH...BUT
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADV ATTM...WHICH IS POSSIBLE.
FOR NOW...WE WILL MENTION WIND POTENTIAL IN THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK.
GREATEST RNFL TOTALS STILL LOOK TO BE OVR THE ERN HIGHLAND SLOPES
XTNDG FROM BAXTER ST PARK SW THRU THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS WERE
UPWARDS OF 1.50 INCHES IS POSSIBLE WITH TRRN DRIVEN UPSLOPE OF SSE
WINDS...WITH 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH ELSEWHERE...AND PERHAPS LESS OVR
SE PTNS OF THE FA.
ANY REMAINING SHWRS OVR THE FAR N AND NE SHOULD END ERLY WED
EVE...ALLOWING FOR CLRG FROM THE SW TO SPREAD INTO THIS REGION.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER WED NGT AFT MILD AND HUMID HI TEMPS WED...
WITH A MDT GRAD WIND PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
THU WILL BEGIN PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY...BUT LONGER RANGE MODELS...IN
PARTICULAR THE 00Z OPNL GFS INDICATES ANOTHER FAST MOVG S/WV APCHG
NRN PTNS OF THE REGION FROM QB LATE IN THE DAY AND CROSSING THIS
PTN THU EVE...BRING MORE IN THE WAY OF CLDNSS AND SCT SHWRS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOLLOWING THE S/WV FEATURE THU EVE...A RE-ENFORCEMENT OF LLVL COOL
AIR WILL BRING RELATIVELY COOL HIGH TEMPS AND NEAR SEASONAL LOW
TEMPS LATE THU NGT/ERLY FRI MORN INTO SAT WITH BREEZY SPCLY DYTM
WINDS...WITH CLDNSS AND ISOLD SHWRS ATTMS ACROSS THE N WITH WEAKER
S/WVS MOVG EWRD IN FAST ZONAL FLOW ALF.
STRONG CANADIAN HI PRES WILL THEN BRING SUNNIER AND MORE TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON SUN FOLLOWED BY A NGT FEATURING MORE RADIATIONAL
COOLING SUN NGT UNDER CLR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS. MON ALSO
LOOKS TO BE MSLY SUNNY...WITH SOME INCREASING CLDNSS LATE IN THE
DAY AS LOW TO MID LVL WARM ADVCN BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE SW.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE KFVE, WHERE CEILINGS WILL LOWER
TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, AND KBHB AND KBGR, WHERE BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO STRATUS AND FOG.
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN AREAS TODAY, WITH LESSER
CHANCES AT THE TERMINALS. REGARDLESS, VFR IS EXPECTED, EVEN IN
PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS WILL THEN LOWER TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY
IFR IN DRIZZLE AND OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR TO LOW IFR CLGS/VSBYS XPCTD ALL TAF
SITES WED MORN WITH RN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS...THEN CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO MVFR FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. ALL SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY WED NGT..CONTG INTO
THU...WITH A BRIEF PD OF MVFR CLGS POSSIBLE WITH SHWRS LATE
THUS AFTN INTO THU EVE OVR FAR NRN TAF SITES. AFTWRDS...ALL
TAF SITES WILL HOLD VFR FROM LATE THU NGT THRU SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME, WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO BE MARGINAL.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A STRONG JET JUST OFF THE SURFACE, THE
COLDER WATERS SHOULD LIMIT MIXING AND THEREBY WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER,
THE THREAT IS THERE, AND SHOULD ANY OF THE STRONGER WINDS MAKE IT
TO THE SURFACE, GUSTS OF 25-30 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE THEREFORE
OPTED TO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: WILL CONT THE SCA FOR ALL WATERS FOR BOTH WINDS
AND SEAS THRU WED...LIKELY NEEDED TO BE CONTD AT LEAST FOR SEAS
ACROSS OUTER MZS050-051 WED NGT INTO THU MORN BEFORE FINALLY
SUBSIDING BLO SCA CRITERIA ACROSS ALL OF OUR WATERS LATE THU. WENT
WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE THIS UPDATE. VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY
BE REDUCED AT TMS TO BELOW A MILE IN HEAVIER RN AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT DURG THE DAY WED.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
505 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 505 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP A COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA BY THIS WEEKEND A
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA BRINGING DRIER BUT STILL
COOL WEATHER. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY AS A SFC
TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER
MICHIGAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...
ISSUED AT 505 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS
INTO SW CANADA AND A DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS...ANCHORED
BY A DEEP MIDLEVEL LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO. A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES ARE
NOTED IN THE TROF. ONE MOVING INTO INDIANA IS GENERATING SHRA/TSRA
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SRN LAKES REGION. A WEAKER WAVE SWEEPING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR HAS SENT A WEAK SFC TROF INTO ERN UPPER MI AND
NRN LWR MI THIS AFTN. DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE MI
HAS ALLOWED SCT -SHRA TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SFC TROF THIS AFTN
ACROSS NRN MI. A COUPLE OF TSRA HAVE EVEN DEVELOPED OVER THE ERN
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.
TONIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES...
USHING IN A PUSH OF COLDER AIR. CONSENSUS OF 12Z MODELS INDICATE
850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND -4C OVER ERN UPPER MI AND TO -2 TO
-3C ACROSS NRN LWR MI. ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION IS NOTED OVER NRN LWR
MI WED AFTN. WITH INCREASING OVERWATER INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
SOME DEEP LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE...EXPECT A
PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED -SHRA TO GET UNDERWAY TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PASSES. BEST HEIGHT FALLS/DEEP LAYER FORCING IS OVER THE N...SO
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS FAR NRN LWR MI
INTO ERN UPPER MI WHERE A FEW AREAS OF LIKELY POPS WILL BE PAINTED.
SINCE WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE ONLY FCST TO DROP AS LOW AS
1500-1600FT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE -SHRA. HOWEVER...TYPICAL
FOR EARLY SEASON LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT...WOULDN`T BE TOO SURPRISED
TO SEE A LITTLE GRAUPEL MIX IN WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS
-SHRA/CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING...ESPECIALLY SINCE
-10C ISOTHERM DIPS BLO A DECENTLY HIGH INVERSION BASE AT ROUGHLY
AROUND 7-8KFT.
DURING WED...SOME LOW-MIDLEVEL DRYING WORKS INTO AT LEAST THE SW
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA...RESULTING IN ANY LINGERING SHRA ENDING
DURING THE DAY. FARTHER N...CYCLONIC FLOW...LINGERING DEEPER
MOISTURE INCLUDING ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MI INTO FAR NRN LWR MI AND
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO ERN UPPER MI WILL KEEP SCT -SHRA GOING. IN
FACT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWINGING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW TO THE N
MAY RESULT IN INCREASING -SHRA COVERAGE OR AT LEAST SOMEWHAT HEAVIER
-SHRA FOR A TIME. DEPENDING ON COVERAGE OF SHRA AND THICKNESS OF
CLOUDS...FCST HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS ERN UPPER MI AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LWR MI MIGHT BE A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC.
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ISSUED AT 505 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...UPPER LOW REMAINS CLOSE BY...BUT
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR RAIN DIMINISHES STEADILY THROUGH THIS TIME
AS DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE TAKES HOLD. HIGHER H85-H7 RH
REMAINS OVER EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...BUT FALLS OFF FARTHER SOUTH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL /900MB-800MB/ MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE THOUGH DUE TO COOL CYCLONIC FLOW /H85 TEMPS DOWN
TO -3C/ TO SOUTH OF SFC-H85 LOWS OVER WESTERN QUEBEC. PLAN TO HAVE A
LOT OF STRATUS AND STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN AND
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THURSDAY...BUT SEEMS CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL BE LOW AS LARGER SCALE FORCING IS MINIMAL. WILL HANG ON TO LOW
CHANCES OVER EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN AS THAT AREA IS CLOSER TO THE
PRIMARY UPR MICHIGAN AND SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE UP TO H7. EVEN WITH
A FAIRLY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER ON SOUNDINGS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO ALSO SEE LGT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AS LAKE/AIR DELTA T/S EXCEED 20C AND WITH
UPSLOPE WNW FLOW. COULD BE CLOSE CALL FOR RAIN/SNOW PTYPE AS TEMPS
FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WITH WBZERO HEIGHTS STAYING ABOVE 1000 FT AGL AND
SINCE THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED...WILL KEEP WITH ONLY RAIN FOR NOW.
PROBABLY THE MAIN STORY THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY WNW
WINDS. WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN UPR
MICHIGAN AND ALONG LK MICHIGAN SHORE OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN OVERALL REGIME.
GFS INDICATES IT BECOMES EVEN DRIER IN THE H85-H7 LAYER AS
SUBSIDENCE AND Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE INCREASES. ECMWF HINTS AT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH ON THE WESTERN PERIFERY OF THE EASTERN
CANADA UPPER LOW BUT IT STILL STAYS PRETTY DRY IN THE H85-H7 LAYER.
LOW-LEVEL WINDS MAINLY STAY WNW BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN...FLOW BECOMES LESS UNIFORM BY
LATER FRIDAY AND MORE SO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENT THAT A LOT OF
CLOUDS WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY
DAYTIME HEATING.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD FINALLY WIN OUT BY
THIS WEEKEND...BUT IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THERE
ARE INDICATIONS ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS ACROSS
INTO SATURDAY. MINIMAL CHANGE IN H85 TEMPS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY RESULTS IN ONLY A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND FOR MAX TEMPS BY
SATURDAY. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT HIGHS STAYING BLO NORMAL WITH MID-UPR
40S OVER EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN AND FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN AND MAYBE REACHING LOWER 50S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
LOWER MICHIGAN. TEMPS COULD BE QUITE COOL SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGE
AXIS OVERHEAD. INTERIOR AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER MAY FALL BLO
FREEZING.
REST OF EXTENDED...AFTER BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT ANOTHER
TROUGH ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES RIDING OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGHING WILL MEET UP WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OR EVEN
MONDAY. BEST FOCUS FOR RAIN WILL BE OUT AHEAD OF H85-H7 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AFTER THIS MOVES THROUGH BY LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT A LULL MOVES ACROSS LATER MONDAY. BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH...STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET WILL COMBINE TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN
SPREADING FM CNTRL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES...INCLUDING MUCH OF LOWER MICHIGAN...ALONG SHARP FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE EXTENDED MODELS AND TRENDS FM THOSE
MODELS INDICATE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID-UPR 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
PER RADAR IMAGERY THERE MAY BE A FEW -SHRA AROUND KAPN THIS AFTN.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN AT
KMBL/KTVC/KPLN/KAPN. A DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING AT LEAST SCT -SHRA TO THE AREA. NORTHERN
TERMINALS ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE -SHRA...ESPECIALLY KTVC/KPLN DUE TO
SOME ASSISTANCE FROM LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES. ALL TERMINALS ARE ALSO
LIKELY TO SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AFTER FROPA TONIGHT. ANY
LINGERING MVFR CIGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR BY LATE WED MORNING. NW WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY TO AROUND 20KT ON WED.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 505 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL USHER IN A COOL AIRMASS WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE OVER-WATER INSTABILITY OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. WNW WINDS OVER 25 KTS BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE AT TIMES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. STRONGEST WINDS FROM SLEEPING BEAR POINT
THROUGH THE STRAITS AND EAST TOWARD PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT ESPECIALLY
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH OVERNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD DIMINISH BLO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY THURSDAY
EVENING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS OVER THE UPR GREAT LAKES.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTN LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTN
LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTN LSZ321.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JLA
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
148 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AHEAD OF A
SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
(VFR) AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z FOR ALL
TERMINALS. A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT GIVEN ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OUT
OF THE TAFS. SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA
DURING THE LATE EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO CANADA AND A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA. MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP
SOME CLOUDS AROUND OVERNIGHT NEAR MBS AND FNT...BUT WE SHOULD
OTHERWISE SEE A DRYING AND PARTIAL CLEARING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THOUGH
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE GUSTY WEST WINDS TOMORROW. GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH CEILINGS PREVAILING BELOW 5000 FEET BETWEEN
20Z AND 04Z.
* LOW CONFIDENCE WITH A THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING DTW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 400 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
IN NEARLY A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF YESTERDAY...THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
SYSTEM IS ORGANIZING OVER ILLINOIS DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED PATTERN OF SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WITH
SIMILAR LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON TIMING AND THEN LAST THROUGH
MID EVENING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT
BEST POTENTIAL IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR DURING MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR WILL THEN SPREAD OVER THE REGION ON THE
HEELS OF THE WAVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS MATCH UP NICELY WITH EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE TRENDS...BOTH OF WHICH DEPICT A 150 KT UPPER JET MAX OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A SHARP LEFT EXIT REGION OVER THE MIDWEST.
THIS JET WILL BE RUNNING THE SHOW ON THE LARGER SCALE AS IT DIGS
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND HELPS THE WAVE
AMPLIFY OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. MODEL CONSENSUS DEPICTS AN OPEN
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT STRONG DEFORMATION DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
TROUGH AXIS AROUND THE 500 MB LEVEL DURING THE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL
MOTION FORCING THAT STARTS OUT AS PURE ISENTROPIC LIFT/THETA-E
ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING WILL THEN OBTAIN A STRONG DYNAMIC BOOST
FROM THE DEFORMATION THAT WILL BEND THE THETA-E RIDGE WESTWARD OVER
SE MICHIGAN BY MID AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY
NOT BE CONTINUOUS BUT GREAT ENOUGH FOR CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE
AREA EXCEPT LIKELY FOR MIDLAND AND BAY COUNTIES. ASSUMING MAX TEMPS
REACH THE LOWER 60S...THE CONSENSUS OF THE NAM AND RAP THEN POINT TO
SURFACE BASED CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG GATHERING ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH FROM THE OHIO BORDER UP TO ABOUT THE M-59 CORRIDOR WHERE THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. USING YESTERDAY AS A
GUIDE...WITH SIMILAR LOW FREEZING LEVEL AND WIND PROFILE...THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PEA SIZE HAIL AND 40 MPH WIND
GUSTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL END BY MID EVENING BUT COULD LINGER AS LATE AS MIDNIGHT
IN THE NORTHERN THUMB BEFORE THE WAVE EXITS INTO ONTARIO. THE
DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A PROGRESSION IN THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN THAT WILL CARRY THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH TOWARD QUEBEC AND
LEAVE DEEP NW FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
NIGHT. WESTERLY SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED MAINTAIN 10 TO 20 MPH AND
BRING ENOUGH COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA TO CARRY MIN TEMPS INTO THE
LOWER 40S UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WELCOMED CHANGES ON THEIR WAY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
BROAD...STRONG AND PERSISTENT UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS
BEEN HOLDING OVER NW ONTARIO FINALLY GETS PICKED UP BY THE
NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET AND FORCED EASTWARD. THOUGH THE LOW
WILL MOVE OVER QUEBEC BY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF THE COAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING...THE FULL EFFECTS OF ITS EXIT WILL
NOT BE REALIZED TIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
STILL LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION AT THE SFC BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR AND MORE TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WE WILL STAY COOL INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STAYS JUST TO OUR SOUTH UNTIL THE
END OF THE WEEKEND WHEN RIDGING APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS AND
WARMER SW FLOW REPLACES THE COOLER NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
LARGELY REMAIN IN THE MID 50S UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN WE NEAR THE 60
MARK.
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN COOL WITH GUSTY WNW FLOW...BUT DRY AIR WORKING
INTO THE REGION WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A DRY DAY FOR
MOST LOCATIONS IN SE MI. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE SOME LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE THUMB WHICH WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE
ENHANCED RIBBON OF MOISTURE RESULTING FROM A GOOD FETCH OVER LAKES
SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN AS THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR ON ITS WAY EAST WHICH WILL
CONSTRICT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP MIXED LAYER DEVELOPING WHICH WILL BRING DOWN
WINDS APPROACHING 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL START A STRING OF NIGHTS IN WHICH TEMPS WILL
DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING STRONGER
EACH DAY AND WINDS DECOUPLING EACH NIGHT UNDER CLEAR
SKIES...FAVORABLE RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ALLOWING
THESE COOLER TEMPS. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EVEN SEE FROST IN THE MORNING
IF WE ACHIEVE THESE COOLER TEMPS. WEDNESDAY MAY HOLD CLOSER TO 40 AS
THE WINDS MAY NOT SUBSIDE FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW LONG ENOUGH DURATION
OF COOLING...BUT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD HAVE CALMER WINDS.
NO REAL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EXTENDED UNTIL LATE ON
SUNDAY WHEN THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS THROUGH THE PLAINS
AND LEAD CYCLOGENESIS SPINS UP A SFC LOW THAT LOOKS TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION INTO MONDAY.
MARINE...
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE GREAT LAKES WATERS AS THE MASSIVE
LOW STILL LINGERS OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO KEEPING A STEADY FEED OF
COLD AIR OVER THE LAKES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE LATEST ROUND OF WIND. GUSTS SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH 25 KNOTS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP THROUGH LATER TODAY. AFTER A
BRIEF LULL TONIGHT...COLD WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY
OVER THE LAKES WHILE THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR ON
WEDNESDAY TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. WINDS
LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW GALES WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF LAKE HURON. THIS WILL LIKELY
NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....HLO
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
117 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NW
ONTARIO WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO E UPPER MI
SUPPORTED SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER THE FAR ERN CWA
TOWARAD ERY. OTHERWISE...JUST MID CLOUDS PREVAILED ACROSS UPPER MI.
SOME -SHRA/SHSN OVER NW ONTARIO WERE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM
SHRTWV THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
TODAY...EXPECT THAT THE NW ONTARIO SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH
SFC HEATING AND A CONTRIBUTION OF LAKE MOISTURE WITH THE LOW LEVEL
WRLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN ISOLD/SCT -SHRA OVER MAINLY THE NORTH
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH THE STEEP SFC-700 MB
LAPSE RATES AND THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING WITH THE SHRTWV
ONLY VERY LIGHT QPF IS EXPECTED...GENRALLY LESS THAN 0.05
INCH...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS WITH AN INVERTED V TYPE
SOUNDING. TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S WEST AND LOWER
TO MID 50S OVER THE CNTRL AND EAST.
TONIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD
FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROPPPING TO NEAR -5C WITH THE PRESENCE OF
FAVORABLE 850-700 MB MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SOME NW FLOW LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT PCPN EVEN THOUGH LAKE-850 MB DELTA/T IS ONLY NEAR
14C. GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST A MIX OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
CONTINUED COOL...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
/MAINLY AWAY FROM S CENTRAL UPPER MI/...UNDER A W-NW FLOW REGIME.
COOL AIR ALOFT AND NEAR THE SFC WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE W THIRD OF THE CWA...INLAND FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR.
THE 500MB LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO AND WILL HAVE IT/S MAIN TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY. NW FLOW OVER UPPER MI WILL REMAIN...WITH THE NEXT W-E
ORIENTED TROUGH SET UP ACROSS MANITOBA AND W ONTARIO. LOOK FOR THIS
FEATURE TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE 500MB LOW SHIFTS FROM THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER AT 06Z THURSDAY TO CENTRAL QUEBEC BY 18Z
THURSDAY...AND NORTHERN ONTARIO BY FRIDAY MORNING. GFS WINDS ARE
QUITE HIGH FOR THE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...ON THE ORDER OF 10KTS HIGHER THAN THE 00Z CANADIAN/NAM AND
THE 12Z ECMWF. WILL WAIT UNTIL THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE FCSTED WINDS FOR THIS PERIOD.
TIMING ON EACH INDIVIDUAL WAVE IS UNCERTAIN...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
FINAL SHORTWAVE IN THE SERIES OVER MANITOBA AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY
WILL PUSH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH EXITS ON FRIDAY...THE LARGE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH
OF W CANADA AND THE W U.S. WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AT THE EARLIEST OVER THE W. THERE LOOKS TO BE SIGNIFICANT TIMING
ISSUES WITH THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD...SO A BLENDED SOLUTION SEEMED
REASONABLE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND LOW PRES TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ONCE AGAIN RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN ISOLD/SCT LIGHT PCPN AND VFR
CIGS/VSBY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
A SURFACE LOW ROTATING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT AND GENERALLY W TO NW WINDS
OF 15-30KTS INTO THU. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THU NIGHT INTO SAT BRINING LIGHTER
WINDS...GENRALLY 20 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
758 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NW
ONTARIO WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO E UPPER MI
SUPPORTED SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER THE FAR ERN CWA
TOWARAD ERY. OTHERWISE...JUST MID CLOUDS PREVAILED ACROSS UPPER MI.
SOME -SHRA/SHSN OVER NW ONTARIO WERE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM
SHRTWV THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
TODAY...EXPECT THAT THE NW ONTARIO SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH
SFC HEATING AND A CONTRIBUTION OF LAKE MOISTURE WITH THE LOW LEVEL
WRLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN ISOLD/SCT -SHRA OVER MAINLY THE NORTH
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH THE STEEP SFC-700 MB
LAPSE RATES AND THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING WITH THE SHRTWV
ONLY VERY LIGHT QPF IS EXPECTED...GENRALLY LESS THAN 0.05
INCH...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS WITH AN INVERTED V TYPE
SOUNDING. TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S WEST AND LOWER
TO MID 50S OVER THE CNTRL AND EAST.
TONIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD
FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROPPPING TO NEAR -5C WITH THE PRESENCE OF
FAVORABLE 850-700 MB MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SOME NW FLOW LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT PCPN EVEN THOUGH LAKE-850 MB DELTA/T IS ONLY NEAR
14C. GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST A MIX OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
CONTINUED COOL...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
/MAINLY AWAY FROM S CENTRAL UPPER MI/...UNDER A W-NW FLOW REGIME.
COOL AIR ALOFT AND NEAR THE SFC WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE W THIRD OF THE CWA...INLAND FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR.
THE 500MB LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO AND WILL HAVE IT/S MAIN TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY. NW FLOW OVER UPPER MI WILL REMAIN...WITH THE NEXT W-E
ORIENTED TROUGH SET UP ACROSS MANITOBA AND W ONTARIO. LOOK FOR THIS
FEATURE TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE 500MB LOW SHIFTS FROM THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER AT 06Z THURSDAY TO CENTRAL QUEBEC BY 18Z
THURSDAY...AND NORTHERN ONTARIO BY FRIDAY MORNING. GFS WINDS ARE
QUITE HIGH FOR THE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...ON THE ORDER OF 10KTS HIGHER THAN THE 00Z CANADIAN/NAM AND
THE 12Z ECMWF. WILL WAIT UNTIL THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE FCSTED WINDS FOR THIS PERIOD.
TIMING ON EACH INDIVIDUAL WAVE IS UNCERTAIN...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
FINAL SHORTWAVE IN THE SERIES OVER MANITOBA AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY
WILL PUSH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH EXITS ON FRIDAY...THE LARGE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH
OF W CANADA AND THE W U.S. WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AT THE EARLIEST OVER THE W. THERE LOOKS TO BE SIGNIFICANT TIMING
ISSUES WITH THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD...SO A BLENDED SOLUTION SEEMED
REASONABLE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND LOW PRES TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT ONCE AGAIN RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN ISOLD/SCT LIGHT PCPN AND SUB-VFR
CIGS/VSBY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED AT
AND IWD THIS EVENING WITH A MORE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE WNW WIND
COMPONENT BEHIND THE TROF AT THE TIME OF DIURNAL COOLING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
A SURFACE LOW ROTATING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT AND GENERALLY W TO NW WINDS
OF 15-30KTS INTO THU. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THU NIGHT INTO SAT BRINING LIGHTER
WINDS...GENRALLY 20 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
713 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GATHER STRENGTH OVER ILLINOIS AND
INDIANA DURING THE MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVER THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR FOLLOWED BY VFR SHOWERS TOWARD NOON. THE
WAVE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE A HEAVIER SHOWER DURING PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING. A THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT WITH LESS
POTENTIAL COVERAGE THAN YESTERDAY...PLAN TO HOLD OFF ON A MENTION IN
THE DTW TERMINAL CORRIDOR IN FAVOR OF ADDITIONAL TIMING AND COVERAGE
REFINEMENT. THE SHOWERS WILL THEN EXIT SE MICHIGAN BY MID EVENING
FOLLOWED BY A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND VFR CEILING
LINGERING BELOW 5000 FEET UNTIL SCATTERING OUT LATER IN THE NIGHT
THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING AOB 5000 FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON POTENTIAL TO REACH CROSS WIND THRESHOLDS
TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 400 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
IN NEARLY A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF YESTERDAY...THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
SYSTEM IS ORGANIZING OVER ILLINOIS DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED PATTERN OF SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WITH
SIMILAR LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON TIMING AND THEN LAST THROUGH
MID EVENING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT
BEST POTENTIAL IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR DURING MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR WILL THEN SPREAD OVER THE REGION ON THE
HEELS OF THE WAVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS MATCH UP NICELY WITH EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE TRENDS...BOTH OF WHICH DEPICT A 150 KT UPPER JET MAX OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A SHARP LEFT EXIT REGION OVER THE MIDWEST.
THIS JET WILL BE RUNNING THE SHOW ON THE LARGER SCALE AS IT DIGS
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND HELPS THE WAVE
AMPLIFY OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. MODEL CONSENSUS DEPICTS AN OPEN
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT STRONG DEFORMATION DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
TROUGH AXIS AROUND THE 500 MB LEVEL DURING THE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL
MOTION FORCING THAT STARTS OUT AS PURE ISENTROPIC LIFT/THETA-E
ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING WILL THEN OBTAIN A STRONG DYNAMIC BOOST
FROM THE DEFORMATION THAT WILL BEND THE THETA-E RIDGE WESTWARD OVER
SE MICHIGAN BY MID AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY
NOT BE CONTINUOUS BUT GREAT ENOUGH FOR CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE
AREA EXCEPT LIKELY FOR MIDLAND AND BAY COUNTIES. ASSUMING MAX TEMPS
REACH THE LOWER 60S...THE CONSENSUS OF THE NAM AND RAP THEN POINT TO
SURFACE BASED CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG GATHERING ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH FROM THE OHIO BORDER UP TO ABOUT THE M-59 CORRIDOR WHERE THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. USING YESTERDAY AS A
GUIDE...WITH SIMILAR LOW FREEZING LEVEL AND WIND PROFILE...THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PEA SIZE HAIL AND 40 MPH WIND
GUSTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL END BY MID EVENING BUT COULD LINGER AS LATE AS MIDNIGHT
IN THE NORTHERN THUMB BEFORE THE WAVE EXITS INTO ONTARIO. THE
DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A PROGRESSION IN THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN THAT WILL CARRY THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH TOWARD QUEBEC AND
LEAVE DEEP NW FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
NIGHT. WESTERLY SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED MAINTAIN 10 TO 20 MPH AND
BRING ENOUGH COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA TO CARRY MIN TEMPS INTO THE
LOWER 40S UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WELCOMED CHANGES ON THEIR WAY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
BROAD...STRONG AND PERSISTENT UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS
BEEN HOLDING OVER NW ONTARIO FINALLY GETS PICKED UP BY THE
NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET AND FORCED EASTWARD. THOUGH THE LOW
WILL MOVE OVER QUEBEC BY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF THE COAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING...THE FULL EFFECTS OF ITS EXIT WILL
NOT BE REALIZED TIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
STILL LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION AT THE SFC BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR AND MORE TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WE WILL STAY COOL INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STAYS JUST TO OUR SOUTH UNTIL THE
END OF THE WEEKEND WHEN RIDGING APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS AND
WARMER SW FLOW REPLACES THE COOLER NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
LARGELY REMAIN IN THE MID 50S UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN WE NEAR THE 60
MARK.
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN COOL WITH GUSTY WNW FLOW...BUT DRY AIR WORKING
INTO THE REGION WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A DRY DAY FOR
MOST LOCATIONS IN SE MI. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE SOME LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE THUMB WHICH WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE
ENHANCED RIBBON OF MOISTURE RESULTING FROM A GOOD FETCH OVER LAKES
SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN AS THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR ON ITS WAY EAST WHICH WILL
CONSTRICT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP MIXED LAYER DEVELOPING WHICH WILL BRING DOWN
WINDS APPROACHING 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL START A STRING OF NIGHTS IN WHICH TEMPS WILL
DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING STRONGER
EACH DAY AND WINDS DECOUPLING EACH NIGHT UNDER CLEAR
SKIES...FAVORABLE RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ALLOWING
THESE COOLER TEMPS. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EVEN SEE FROST IN THE MORNING
IF WE ACHIEVE THESE COOLER TEMPS. WEDNESDAY MAY HOLD CLOSER TO 40 AS
THE WINDS MAY NOT SUBSIDE FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW LONG ENOUGH DURATION
OF COOLING...BUT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD HAVE CALMER WINDS.
NO REAL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EXTENDED UNTIL LATE ON
SUNDAY WHEN THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS THROUGH THE PLAINS
AND LEAD CYCLOGENESIS SPINS UP A SFC LOW THAT LOOKS TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION INTO MONDAY.
MARINE...
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE GREAT LAKES WATERS AS THE MASSIVE
LOW STILL LINGERS OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO KEEPING A STEADY FEED OF
COLD AIR OVER THE LAKES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE LATEST ROUND OF WIND. GUSTS SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH 25 KNOTS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP THROUGH LATER TODAY. AFTER A
BRIEF LULL TONIGHT...COLD WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY
OVER THE LAKES WHILE THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR ON
WEDNESDAY TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. WINDS
LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW GALES WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF LAKE HURON. THIS WILL LIKELY
NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
HURON...UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
510 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NW
ONTARIO WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO E UPPER MI
SUPPORTED SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER THE FAR ERN CWA
TOWARAD ERY. OTHERWISE...JUST MID CLOUDS PREVAILED ACROSS UPPER MI.
SOME -SHRA/SHSN OVER NW ONTARIO WERE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM
SHRTWV THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
TODAY...EXPECT THAT THE NW ONTARIO SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH
SFC HEATING AND A CONTRIBUTION OF LAKE MOISTURE WITH THE LOW LEVEL
WRLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN ISOLD/SCT -SHRA OVER MAINLY THE NORTH
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH THE STEEP SFC-700 MB
LAPSE RATES AND THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING WITH THE SHRTWV
ONLY VERY LIGHT QPF IS EXPECTED...GENRALLY LESS THAN 0.05
INCH...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS WITH AN INVERTED V TYPE
SOUNDING. TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S WEST AND LOWER
TO MID 50S OVER THE CNTRL AND EAST.
TONIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD
FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROPPPING TO NEAR -5C WITH THE PRESENCE OF
FAVORABLE 850-700 MB MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SOME NW FLOW LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT PCPN EVEN THOUGH LAKE-850 MB DELTA/T IS ONLY NEAR
14C. GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST A MIX OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
CONTINUED COOL...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
/MAINLY AWAY FROM S CENTRAL UPPER MI/...UNDER A W-NW FLOW REGIME.
COOL AIR ALOFT AND NEAR THE SFC WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE W THIRD OF THE CWA...INLAND FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR.
THE 500MB LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO AND WILL HAVE IT/S MAIN TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY. NW FLOW OVER UPPER MI WILL REMAIN...WITH THE NEXT W-E
ORIENTED TROUGH SET UP ACROSS MANITOBA AND W ONTARIO. LOOK FOR THIS
FEATURE TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE 500MB LOW SHIFTS FROM THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER AT 06Z THURSDAY TO CENTRAL QUEBEC BY 18Z
THURSDAY...AND NORTHERN ONTARIO BY FRIDAY MORNING. GFS WINDS ARE
QUITE HIGH FOR THE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...ON THE ORDER OF 10KTS HIGHER THAN THE 00Z CANADIAN/NAM AND
THE 12Z ECMWF. WILL WAIT UNTIL THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE FCSTED WINDS FOR THIS PERIOD.
TIMING ON EACH INDIVIDUAL WAVE IS UNCERTAIN...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
FINAL SHORTWAVE IN THE SERIES OVER MANITOBA AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY
WILL PUSH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH EXITS ON FRIDAY...THE LARGE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH
OF W CANADA AND THE W U.S. WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AT THE EARLIEST OVER THE W. THERE LOOKS TO BE SIGNIFICANT TIMING
ISSUES WITH THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD...SO A BLENDED SOLUTION SEEMED
REASONABLE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
A LO PRES TROF WL CROSS UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG ACCOMPANIED BY SOME
SCT -SHRA THAT MAY STILL IMPACT SAW FOR THE FIRST FEW HRS OF THE TAF
PERIOD. BUT RATHER DRY LLVL AIR WL RESULT IN PREDOMINANT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE AT
CMX...WHERE WSHFT TO THE W IN THE WAKE OF THE TROF PASSAGE WL RESULT
IN A SHARPER UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AND PERHAPS MVFR CIGS FOR A
TIME. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/LO PRES TROF WL ARRIVE ON TUE AFTN...BUT
ONCE AGAIN RELATIVELY DRY LLVL AIR WL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR WDSPRD
HEAVIER SHRA AND SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBY. THE BEST CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
WL BE AT CMX AND IWD THIS EVNG WITH MORE FVRBL UPSLOPE WNW WIND
COMPONENT BEHIND THE TROF AT TIME OF DIURNAL COOLING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
A SURFACE LOW ROTATING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT AND GENERALLY W TO NW WINDS
OF 15-30KTS INTO THU. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THU NIGHT INTO SAT BRINING LIGHTER
WINDS...GENRALLY 20 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
400 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
IN NEARLY A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF YESTERDAY...THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
SYSTEM IS ORGANIZING OVER ILLINOIS DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED PATTERN OF SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WITH
SIMILAR LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON TIMING AND THEN LAST THROUGH
MID EVENING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT
BEST POTENTIAL IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR DURING MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR WILL THEN SPREAD OVER THE REGION ON THE
HEELS OF THE WAVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS MATCH UP NICELY WITH EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE TRENDS...BOTH OF WHICH DEPICT A 150 KT UPPER JET MAX OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A SHARP LEFT EXIT REGION OVER THE MIDWEST.
THIS JET WILL BE RUNNING THE SHOW ON THE LARGER SCALE AS IT DIGS
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND HELPS THE WAVE
AMPLIFY OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. MODEL CONSENSUS DEPICTS AN OPEN
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT STRONG DEFORMATION DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
TROUGH AXIS AROUND THE 500 MB LEVEL DURING THE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL
MOTION FORCING THAT STARTS OUT AS PURE ISENTROPIC LIFT/THETA-E
ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING WILL THEN OBTAIN A STRONG DYNAMIC BOOST
FROM THE DEFORMATION THAT WILL BEND THE THETA-E RIDGE WESTWARD OVER
SE MICHIGAN BY MID AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY
NOT BE CONTINUOUS BUT GREAT ENOUGH FOR CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE
AREA EXCEPT LIKELY FOR MIDLAND AND BAY COUNTIES. ASSUMING MAX TEMPS
REACH THE LOWER 60S...THE CONSENSUS OF THE NAM AND RAP THEN POINT TO
SURFACE BASED CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG GATHERING ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH FROM THE OHIO BORDER UP TO ABOUT THE M-59 CORRIDOR WHERE THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. USING YESTERDAY AS A
GUIDE...WITH SIMILAR LOW FREEZING LEVEL AND WIND PROFILE...THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PEA SIZE HAIL AND 40 MPH WIND
GUSTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL END BY MID EVENING BUT COULD LINGER AS LATE AS MIDNIGHT
IN THE NORTHERN THUMB BEFORE THE WAVE EXITS INTO ONTARIO. THE
DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A PROGRESSION IN THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN THAT WILL CARRY THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH TOWARD QUEBEC AND
LEAVE DEEP NW FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
NIGHT. WESTERLY SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED MAINTAIN 10 TO 20 MPH AND
BRING ENOUGH COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA TO CARRY MIN TEMPS INTO THE
LOWER 40S UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WELCOMED CHANGES ON THEIR WAY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
BROAD...STRONG AND PERSISTENT UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS
BEEN HOLDING OVER NW ONTARIO FINALLY GETS PICKED UP BY THE
NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET AND FORCED EASTWARD. THOUGH THE LOW
WILL MOVE OVER QUEBEC BY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF THE COAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING...THE FULL EFFECTS OF ITS EXIT WILL
NOT BE REALIZED TIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
STILL LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION AT THE SFC BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR AND MORE TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WE WILL STAY COOL INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STAYS JUST TO OUR SOUTH UNTIL THE
END OF THE WEEKEND WHEN RIDGING APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS AND
WARMER SW FLOW REPLACES THE COOLER NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
LARGELY REMAIN IN THE MID 50S UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN WE NEAR THE 60
MARK.
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN COOL WITH GUSTY WNW FLOW...BUT DRY AIR WORKING
INTO THE REGION WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A DRY DAY FOR
MOST LOCATIONS IN SE MI. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE SOME LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE THUMB WHICH WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE
ENHANCED RIBBON OF MOISTURE RESULTING FROM A GOOD FETCH OVER LAKES
SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN AS THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR ON ITS WAY EAST WHICH WILL
CONSTRICT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP MIXED LAYER DEVELOPING WHICH WILL BRING DOWN
WINDS APPROACHING 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL START A STRING OF NIGHTS IN WHICH TEMPS WILL
DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING STRONGER
EACH DAY AND WINDS DECOUPLING EACH NIGHT UNDER CLEAR
SKIES...FAVORABLE RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ALLOWING
THESE COOLER TEMPS. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EVEN SEE FROST IN THE MORNING
IF WE ACHIEVE THESE COOLER TEMPS. WEDNESDAY MAY HOLD CLOSER TO 40 AS
THE WINDS MAY NOT SUBSIDE FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW LONG ENOUGH DURATION
OF COOLING...BUT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD HAVE CALMER WINDS.
NO REAL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EXTENDED UNTIL LATE ON
SUNDAY WHEN THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS THROUGH THE PLAINS
AND LEAD CYCLOGENESIS SPINS UP A SFC LOW THAT LOOKS TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE GREAT LAKES WATERS AS THE MASSIVE
LOW STILL LINGERS OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO KEEPING A STEADY FEED OF
COLD AIR OVER THE LAKES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE LATEST ROUND OF WIND. GUSTS SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH 25 KNOTS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP THROUGH LATER TODAY. AFTER A
BRIEF LULL TONIGHT...COLD WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY
OVER THE LAKES WHILE THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR ON
WEDNESDAY TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. WINDS
LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW GALES WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF LAKE HURON. THIS WILL LIKELY
NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1156 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
//DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE ANOTHER BATCH OF SHRAS PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA AS NEXT IN A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SWEEP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY BRING OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY IN THE 17Z-23Z TIME
FRAME...WITH VARYING DEGREES OF CLEARING BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITHIN SUBSIDENCE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ONCE IT PASSES.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
HURON...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK
AVIATION.....DG
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
300 PM MDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...
MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT NEAR A MID LEVEL
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BE LOCATED FROM NEAR HYSHAM TO EKALAKA
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. WEAK JET DIVERGENCE AND Q VECTOR
FORCING WILL BE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES WHICH WILL GENERATE
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HRRR AND
SSEO WRF-ARW ALSO INDICATE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE EAST OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE
DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BUT A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE GFS AND EC ARE PROGGING STRONGER Q VECTOR FORCING WITH THIS
TROUGH AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING FALLING HEIGHTS
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WHICH IS
NEAR SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. RICHMOND
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
SO EXACT TIMING OF SYSTEMS REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT
IN TIME. JET STREAM THAT WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS WEEK WILL SHIFT SOUTH LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY RESULTING IN
A FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
MOVE SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE FLOW WITH THE STRONGEST LOOKING TO BE
DURING THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME
TIME...A GENERALLY STRONG WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL BE
ESTABLISHED PLAYING A DOWNSLOPE EFFECT HELPING TO INHIBIT SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MODELS THEN DIFFER QUITE A BIT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
THE ECMWF KEEPING TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE GFS HAS
MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW. AS A RESULT...DID NOT MAKE ANY BIG CHANGES
TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. OVERALL...THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
WIND. HOOLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET. THERE WILL BE A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER ALONG AND EAST OF A FORSYTH
TO BROADUS LINE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. HOOLEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047/074 046/064 044/065 047/068 046/063 044/061 044/066
10/B 00/B 21/U 01/B 12/W 21/N 11/B
LVM 044/072 040/065 039/067 043/065 039/059 038/059 039/063
10/U 11/B 11/U 01/B 22/W 21/N 11/E
HDN 043/075 044/066 042/066 045/070 043/065 042/062 041/068
11/B 00/B 21/U 01/B 22/W 21/N 11/B
MLS 042/069 041/064 041/064 046/070 044/065 042/061 041/066
21/B 11/B 21/B 11/B 11/B 21/N 11/B
4BQ 041/073 043/065 042/063 045/071 043/063 042/059 039/066
21/B 01/B 21/B 11/B 22/W 21/N 11/B
BHK 037/064 036/059 037/058 042/068 040/062 040/055 036/062
22/W 10/B 11/B 11/B 21/B 21/N 11/B
SHR 043/074 043/067 042/065 042/071 042/061 038/058 037/066
11/U 00/B 21/U 01/U 23/W 21/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
904 AM MDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP JUST EAST OF BILLINGS
THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS WERE LOCATED FROM ASHLAND AND EXTENDED
NORTHWEST TO ROUNDUP. THE PRECIPITATION IS THE RESULT OF A BACK
DOOR FRONT ALONG WITH MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. FORCING IS VERY
WEAK AND WOULD ONLY EXPECT A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF
PRECIPITATION. ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO
EXTEND PRECIPITATION FURTHER EAST FOR LATE MORNING AND THE
AFTERNOON AS THE ECMWF BRINGS ENERGY ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES
ALONG WITH WEAK Q VECTOR FORCING. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE SSEO
WRF PRECIPITATION AND THE HRRR. EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW TODAY ALONG
WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND LOWER HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS HANDLED
WELL AND NO CHANGES MADE. RICHMOND
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
TRANQUIL AND MILD WEATHER WILL RULE THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW IN ONTARIO SHIFTS EAST...TAKING WITH IT A CORE OF STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT THAT HAVE BEEN AIDING GUSTY WINDS RECENTLY.
TODAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ONGOING IN CENTRAL MT AS
OF 08 UTC FROM LEWISTOWN TOWARD ROUNDUP AND LAME DEER. THE SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH
ACCOMPANIED A WEAK BACKDOOR COOL FRONTAL SURGE LAST EVENING. THERE
WILL BE WEAK...BUT PERSISTENT FRONTOGENESIS NEAR THAT ZONE THROUGH
THE DAY SO WE HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST IN PLACES NEAR
AND TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL FRONT. WE PULLED THE LOW-END
SHOWER CHANCE A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN EARLIER FORECASTS...AND THUS
INTO THE BILLINGS AREA...OUT OF RESPECT TO OVERNIGHT HRRR AND NSSL
WRF-ARW RUNS. OTHERWISE...MIXING WILL BE LIMITED IN MOST LOCATIONS
TODAY AND THUS HIGHS WILL BE COOLER THAN MON...MAINLY IN THE 60S F
EXCEPT FOR AROUND LIVINGSTON WHERE A WEST WIND WILL CONTINUE SINCE
THE WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT ISN/T EXPECTED TO MAKE IT THAT FAR WEST.
TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE WEAK MID-LEVEL
FRONT...WHICH MEANS MOSTLY NORTH AND EAST OF BILLINGS TOWARD MILES
CITY AND BROADUS. THERE MAY ACTUALLY BE SOME UPTICK IN THAT SHOWER
ACTIVITY AFTER 06 UTC IN SOUTHEASTERN MT AS SOME BETTER QG-FORCING
APPROACHES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AN IDEA SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE
00 UTC ECMWF AND NSSL WRF-ARW /BOTH OF WHICH HAVE HANDLED ISOLATED
SHOWERS WELL IN THIS REGIME OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS/.
WED...A WARM-UP IS EXPECTED AS MIXING DEEPENS IN MOST AREAS AS THE
LOW- AND MID-LEVEL FRONT MOVES BACK EASTWARD AS A WARM FRONT. SOME
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON WED AROUND BAKER NEAR THE FRONT
AND ON THE FRINGE OF A MODERATE SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO ND. WE ARE
EXPECTING HIGHS BACK ABOVE 70 F IN MANY AREAS WHICH FITS WELL WITH
THE 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THAT WAS THE BASIS FOR ALMOST ALL
OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST GIVEN THE LOW-IMPACT WEATHER AND RATHER
SMALL SPREAD IN INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
CONCERNING THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES STILL
EXIST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
OPERATIONAL GFS HAS TRENDED EVER SO SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE ECMWF
SOLUTIONS FOR THESE LATER TIME FRAMES. WPC HAS ALSO STATED THEIR
IN-HOUSE PARALLEL GFS IS MUCH CLOSER TO ECMWF CLUSTERING THAN THE
OPERATIONAL GFS. THEREFORE...WILL WEIGHT BLENDS FOR THE EXTENDED
TOWARD THE ECMWF.
SO MOVING FORWARD...EXPECT WEAK PACIFIC SHORT WAVES WITHIN AN
OTHERWISE ANTI-CYCLONIC LONG WAVE PATTERN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. FOR THE WEEKEND...A FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND CARVE OUT A LOW AMPLITUDE
YET BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN UNSETTLED AND PERHAPS BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH
PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH WIND AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE
LIKELY RESULT FOR THE PLAINS. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS..BUT THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OF
PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES PREVAILING...THOUGH NOT
AS WARM AS WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS WEEK. BT
&&
.AVIATION...
VARIABLE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TODAY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH
EASTERLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AT THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KLVM
WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN WESTERLY. BT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 067 047/074 046/064 045/065 047/068 046/060 042/061
2/W 10/B 00/B 20/U 02/W 12/W 21/N
LVM 075 043/073 040/066 040/067 043/065 039/056 036/059
0/B 10/U 11/B 10/U 02/W 22/W 21/N
HDN 067 043/075 044/067 043/066 045/070 043/062 040/062
2/W 11/B 00/B 21/U 02/W 22/W 21/N
MLS 063 042/070 041/064 042/064 046/070 044/062 040/061
2/W 21/B 11/B 22/B 11/B 11/B 21/N
4BQ 063 042/073 043/065 042/063 045/071 043/060 040/059
2/W 21/B 01/B 22/B 11/B 22/W 21/N
BHK 059 037/065 037/058 037/058 042/068 040/059 038/055
1/N 22/W 11/B 12/B 11/B 11/B 21/N
SHR 067 043/074 043/068 043/065 042/071 042/058 036/058
2/W 11/U 00/B 20/U 01/U 23/W 21/N
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
258 AM MDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
TRANQUIL AND MILD WEATHER WILL RULE THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW IN ONTARIO SHIFTS EAST...TAKING WITH IT A CORE OF STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT THAT HAVE BEEN AIDING GUSTY WINDS RECENTLY.
TODAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ONGOING IN CENTRAL MT AS
OF 08 UTC FROM LEWISTOWN TOWARD ROUNDUP AND LAME DEER. THE SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH
ACCOMPANIED A WEAK BACKDOOR COOL FRONTAL SURGE LAST EVENING. THERE
WILL BE WEAK...BUT PERSISTENT FRONTOGENESIS NEAR THAT ZONE THROUGH
THE DAY SO WE HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST IN PLACES NEAR
AND TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL FRONT. WE PULLED THE LOW-END
SHOWER CHANCE A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN EARLIER FORECASTS...AND THUS
INTO THE BILLINGS AREA...OUT OF RESPECT TO OVERNIGHT HRRR AND NSSL
WRF-ARW RUNS. OTHERWISE...MIXING WILL BE LIMITED IN MOST LOCATIONS
TODAY AND THUS HIGHS WILL BE COOLER THAN MON...MAINLY IN THE 60S F
EXCEPT FOR AROUND LIVINGSTON WHERE A WEST WIND WILL CONTINUE SINCE
THE WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT ISN/T EXPECTED TO MAKE IT THAT FAR WEST.
TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE WEAK MID-LEVEL
FRONT...WHICH MEANS MOSTLY NORTH AND EAST OF BILLINGS TOWARD MILES
CITY AND BROADUS. THERE MAY ACTUALLY BE SOME UPTICK IN THAT SHOWER
ACTIVITY AFTER 06 UTC IN SOUTHEASTERN MT AS SOME BETTER QG-FORCING
APPROACHES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AN IDEA SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE
00 UTC ECMWF AND NSSL WRF-ARW /BOTH OF WHICH HAVE HANDLED ISOLATED
SHOWERS WELL IN THIS REGIME OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS/.
WED...A WARM-UP IS EXPECTED AS MIXING DEEPENS IN MOST AREAS AS THE
LOW- AND MID-LEVEL FRONT MOVES BACK EASTWARD AS A WARM FRONT. SOME
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON WED AROUND BAKER NEAR THE FRONT
AND ON THE FRINGE OF A MODERATE SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO ND. WE ARE
EXPECTING HIGHS BACK ABOVE 70 F IN MANY AREAS WHICH FITS WELL WITH
THE 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THAT WAS THE BASIS FOR ALMOST ALL
OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST GIVEN THE LOW-IMPACT WEATHER AND RATHER
SMALL SPREAD IN INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
CONCERNING THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES STILL
EXIST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
OPERATIONAL GFS HAS TRENDED EVER SO SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE ECMWF
SOLUTIONS FOR THESE LATER TIME FRAMES. WPC HAS ALSO STATED THEIR
IN-HOUSE PARALLEL GFS IS MUCH CLOSER TO ECMWF CLUSTERING THAN THE
OPERATIONAL GFS. THEREFORE...WILL WEIGHT BLENDS FOR THE EXTENDED
TOWARD THE ECMWF.
SO MOVING FORWARD...EXPECT WEAK PACIFIC SHORT WAVES WITHIN AN
OTHERWISE ANTI-CYCLONIC LONG WAVE PATTERN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. FOR THE WEEKEND...A FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND CARVE OUT A LOW AMPLITUDE
YET BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN UNSETTLED AND PERHAPS BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH
PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH WIND AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE
LIKELY RESULT FOR THE PLAINS. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS..BUT THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OF
PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES PREVAILING...THOUGH NOT
AS WARM AS WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS WEEK. BT
&&
.AVIATION...
VARIABLE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TODAY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH
EASTERLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AT THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KLVM
WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN WESTERLY. BT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 067 047/074 046/064 045/065 047/068 046/060 042/061
2/W 10/B 00/B 20/U 02/W 12/W 21/N
LVM 075 043/073 040/066 040/067 043/065 039/056 036/059
0/B 10/U 11/B 10/U 02/W 22/W 21/N
HDN 067 043/075 044/067 043/066 045/070 043/062 040/062
2/W 11/B 00/B 21/U 02/W 22/W 21/N
MLS 063 042/070 041/064 042/064 046/070 044/062 040/061
2/W 21/B 11/B 22/B 11/B 11/B 21/N
4BQ 063 042/073 043/065 042/063 045/071 043/060 040/059
2/W 21/B 01/B 22/B 11/B 22/W 21/N
BHK 059 037/065 037/058 037/058 042/068 040/059 038/055
1/N 22/W 11/B 12/B 11/B 11/B 21/N
SHR 067 043/074 043/068 043/065 042/071 042/058 036/058
2/W 11/U 00/B 20/U 01/U 23/W 21/N
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
1020 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2014
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED
.UPDATE...
No significant changes to the forecast tonight as the upper level
ridge continues to dominate the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0420Z.
Current satellite imagery shows northwest flow and moisture aloft
continuing to generate widespread SCT-BKN mid-level clouds
(generally above 7000 ft) over most of central and north-central MT,
with considerably less cloud cover from KHLN southward to the MT-ID
border. Additional moisture upstream will keep the cloud decks in
place through at least midday Wed, with a slight chance of a stray
rain shower vcnty KLWT in the early aftn. Breezy westerly winds from
earlier this evening have dissipated across the region and should
remain light overnight.
Waranauskas
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 605 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2014/
Tonight through Wednesday...Northwest flow aloft will continue as
the upper ridge remains over the west coast. Weak short wave
energy will move within the flow aloft tonight and may generate
some light showers, mainly in a narrow band from near Cut Bank to
east of Great Falls to just north of Lewistown. This lines up well
with RUC analysis but HRRR model data has the precipitation a bit
further to the west. Slightly cooler temperatures are in store for
the area Tuesday with a few isolated afternoon showers. The
pressure gradient will continue to favor breezy conditions Tuesday
afternoon. Additional short wave energy moves across the area
Wednesday with isolated showers again a possibility, mainly near
the international boundary and along the Rocky Mountain Front.
Temperatures will remain above seasonal averages.
Wednesday Night through Monday...Medium range models remain in
good agreement from midweek through Saturday but solutions
continue to diverge for the Sunday/Monday time frame. Period
starts off with northwest flow aloft over the Northern Rocky
Mountain region with temperatures that are near seasonal averages.
Moisture in the northwest flow will bring isolated rain and snow
showers to the western mountains through Friday afternoon. By
Friday evening, a strong upper level jet will push into western
Canada and the Pacific Northwest. However, beyond Saturday, the
strong flow aloft causes model solutions to diverge as short wave
strength and timing become more problematic. Based upon the
general pattern present in the medium range models am expecting
that increased Pacific moisture and upper level dynamics will
bring an growing chance for precipitation to the western mountains
with isolated to scattered showers moving out over the plains.
Have continued to trend PoPs upward for Saturday through Monday
with temperatures expected to cool back below seasonal averages.
Have also trended toward increased winds along the Rocky Mountain
Front during this period as well and am expecting that that one or
two high wind events along the east slopes of the Rockies are
possible between Friday and Monday. mpj
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 47 68 47 70 / 10 10 10 10
CTB 44 67 43 70 / 20 20 10 10
HLN 48 75 46 72 / 10 10 10 10
BZN 42 73 40 70 / 0 10 10 10
WEY 32 64 31 62 / 0 0 10 0
DLN 44 74 41 70 / 0 0 10 0
HVR 42 64 40 67 / 10 20 10 20
LWT 44 66 43 69 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
646 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
PERSISTENT...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER NWRN ONTARIO...IS
FINALLY BEGINNING TO SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST TDY. AS OF THE 12Z
UA ANALYSIS...THIS FEATURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF ONTARIO. FIFTY TO SEVENTY METER HT FALLS EXTENDED FROM THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. FIFTY TO 90 METER RISES
WERE NOTED FROM NERN SD INTO WEST VIRGINIA. A JET STREAK EXTENDED
FROM SRN ALBERTA INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND.
ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WAS SPINNING
OFF THE COAST OF SAN DIEGO WITH THE REMNANTS OF TS SIMON ACROSS
ARIZONA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TS SIMON...HAS PUSHED NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS TDY. THIS HAS LED
TO ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT RANGED FROM
68 AT NORTH PLATTE...TO 72 AT VALENTINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA FROM A LINE OCCURRING SPENCER SOUTHWEST TOWARDS AMEILA AND
POINTS EASTWARD. CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA BUT HAVE LEFT CHANCES IN SINCE ENVIRONMENT
IS STILL MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. WEAK FRONTOGENESIS STILL REMAINS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH THE NOSE OF
THE JET SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN SD AND WESTERN IOWA PUTS THIS REGION
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
DECIDED TO LOWER TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...TRENDED MORE TO THE ECMWF MODEL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AS
THIS SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE COOLER AIR MOVING IN
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS DID NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
SKY COVERAGE FOR TONIGHT AND FELT IT DID NOT BRING STRATUS DECK FAR
ENOUGH NORTH ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. KEPT TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DUE TO
EXPECTED CLOUD COVERAGE.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES THURS LATE AFTERNOON FOR EXTREME SW NEB
AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SIMON CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. DECIDED TO TREND BACK ON POPS FOR
THURS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SW NEBRASKA AS THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS
APPEARS TO BE FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS SUGGESTED KEEPING
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS KANSAS. TOOK OUT THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS PUT IN RAIN SHOWER WORDING AS STRONGER LIFT STAYS
SOUTH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
HURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DURING THE MID RANGE
PERIODS...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THE SOUTH...CLOUDINESS AND TEMPERATURES. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ALONG AND EAST OF THIS
FEATURE...STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL KS...WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE AND LEFT OVER
MOISTURE FROM TS SIMON...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS KANSAS.
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS AREA...APPEARS TO IMPACT FAR SRN
NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS PCPN WITH THIS MORNINGS RUNS...AND
HAVE PUSHED THE POP THREAT FARTHER SOUTH...MAINLY ENCOMPASSING OUR
FAR THREE SWRN COUNTIES OF CHASE...HAYES AND FRONTIER. ELSEWHERE...A
THICK VEIL OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL HOLD LOWS TO
THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE CENTRAL AND SRN CWA. IN THE NORTH WHERE
THE VEIL OF CLOUDS WILL BE THIN...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE
UPPER 30S. FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...FORCING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...STALLING THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGES OF COLORADO AND
WYOMING...AS WELL AS CENTRAL KS. IN ADDITION TO CAA...ABUNDANT MID
AND HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN 2/3RDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
SOME LOW 60S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST CLOUDS WILL BE
LIMITED AND WEAK WAA WILL DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT. GUIDANCE LOWS CAME IN REAL COOL FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SERN AND EASTERN FORECAST AREA WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND A DEVELOPING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THIS IN MIND...LIMITED LOWS TO THE MID
30S TO THE UPPER 40S. ON SATURDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGES OF WYOMING AND COLORADO.
INCREASING SRLY WINDS WILL PUSH WARM AIR NWD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON H85 TEMPS...WE SHOULD SEE A
WIDE RANGE IN TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 IN THE
EAST TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE WEST.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE
RETAINED IN THE FORECAST...HOWEVER FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MEAGER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. RIDGING WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE EXITING
TROUGH ON MONDAY...AND WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A DRY FCST WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND
40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY.
A STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. WILL APPROACH KS THURSDAY. ANY
MVFR/IFR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA.
THERE IS ALSO A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS THIS
EVENING AND THE NAM AND THE RAP ATTEMPT TO GENERATE A NARROW BAND
OF MVFR/IFR ALONG THE FRONT AS IT ENTERS NRN NEB THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE BUT THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE...5 PERCENT...THAT THESE LOW CEILING WILL FORM ACROSS NRN
NEB THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...GOMEZ
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
640 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
THE PRIMARY FOCUS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW WILL CENTER AROUND THE
LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS A COOL DOWN.
OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS LOCATED UNDERNEATH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND HAVE SEEN A FEW SPRINKLES TO EVEN LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTION OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. OVER 90 PERCENT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL SEE NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNSET...BUT WILL
LEAVE AT LEAST THE CHANCE OF SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND SOME ENHANCEMENT IN CLOUD COVER AS
DEPICTED IN THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
WITH RETURN EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. AS A
RESULT...MUCAPE VALUES WILL ALSO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND COULD CLIMB
TO OVER 1000 J/KG ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS WITH LOWER VALUES OVER
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. REGARDLESS...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS IF WE DO GET ELEVATED INITIATION. MOST
FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT FOR DAYS NOW INDICATING
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND
THIS HAS NOT CHANGED. THE STRONGEST WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH
THE GREATEST LIFT AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND THIS IS
WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY. ACROSS OUR
AREA...EXPECT AREAS WEST OF HWY 281 WILL LIKELY BE LARGELY DRY WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR OUR FORECAST ZONES GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281.
TOMORROW...THE WIND WILL TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY WITH A SFC COOL
FRONT SINKING SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. ANY RAIN DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...SEVERAL FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO LIFT SHOWERS
NORTHWARD TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS COULD ALLOW
SHOWERS TO SLIP AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 80. WILL ALSO INCLUDE
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER NORTHERN KANSAS WHERE A MINIMAL
AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD WORK BACK INTO THE PICTURE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL SYSTEM SIMON WILL MIGRATE FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS...SPREADING SOME MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TO START THE
EXTENDED. WHILE THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH THE
MOISTURE WILL EXTEND...MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
BRINGING A FAIRLY ROBUST QPF SIGNAL TO THE NE/KS BORDERS OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME STRAY
SHOWERS NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER...BY FAR THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL LIE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES...AND
CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIP BEGINNING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH ONLY VERY MEAGER
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...AND LIMITED THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED NON
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHERE ODDS ARE LOW...BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM.
THEREAFTER...A STRONGER WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OVERTAKE THE
REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MINIMAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THIS FLOW
PATTERN...BRINGING A FAIR CHANCE FOR SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT
RAINFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE NOT EXCEPTIONALLY
COLD...THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT SHOULD ACT TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THAT SAID...THE COOLEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED
PERIODS IS ACTUALLY EXPECTED TO BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS WITH
AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AROUND...AS WELL AS 850 MB TEMPS
ONLY IN THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HAVE A
HARD TIME CLIMBING OUT OF THE 50S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO.
THE MAIN FORECAST CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS THIS AFTERNOON
WAS TO COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FOR SATURDAY
MORNING...AS WITH THE REMNANTS OF SIMON SHIFTING EAST AND CLEARING
SKIES EXPECTED...AS WELL AS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA...EXPECT TO SEE TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
SATURDAY MORNING WITH AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
A FAIRLY CLOUDY TAF PERIOD IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CIGS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY BUT MAY DROP
TO MVFR THURSDAY AFTN. THE RAP SUGGESTS VSBY RESTRICTIONS MAY
IMPACT KEAR TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
OTHER MODEL SUPPORT SO HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW. LOOK FOR WINDS TO BE
FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION...TRANSITIONING FROM SOUTHEAST TO EAST
TO NORTHEAST.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
900 AM PDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST TODAY WILL
COMBINE WITH REMNANT MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM SIMON TO BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER
MOHAVE COUNTY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCREASE SKY COVER TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND TO SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON. NO CHANGE WAS MADE TO POP/WX GRIDS. SATELLITE LOOPS
SHOWED DENSE HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY AND UP THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. THE 12Z
LAS VEGAS SOUNDING SHOWED MOISTURE WAS IN THE 400-300 MB LAYER. GFS
HIGH LEVEL RH FIELDS INDICATE THIS CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. RADAR RETURNS SHOWED LIGHT PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF
I-40 THIS MORNING BETWEEN TWENTYNINE PALMS AND THE COLORADO RIVER.
THE LATEST HRRR DEPICTS ANY PRECIPITATION REMAINING OVER SOUTHEAST
SAN BERNARDINO AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE 12Z GFS KEEPS PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THESE AREAS
OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE TRENDS DETAILED IN
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
214 AM PDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF INYO, NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. THIS CLOUD COVER IS ASSOCIATED WITH TS SIMON AS IT HAS
MAKES ITS TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. SIMON IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE OVER NORTHERN BAJA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE DISSIPATING. A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE
COUNTY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AS HI-RES MODEL QPF PROGS
ARE IN LINE WITH THE COARSER RESOLUTION OPERATIONAL MODELS IN
HIGHLIGHTING THESE AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
QUARTER TO HALF INCH RAIN AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POTENTIALLY CREATING SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES. FOR AREAS
FURTHER WEST AND NORTH OF THESE TARGETED AREAS, ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED WITH LOWER RAIN
TOTALS. THE NAM12 LINGERS SHOWERS OVER MOHAVE COUNTY INTO THURSDAY
WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRY. DECIDED TO LEAVE A MENTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA WITH LESS CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CWA. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING TROUGH. WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ANY RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA ON
FRIDAY SHOULD BE SCOURED OUT ON SATURDAY UNDER INCREASING DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN THE HANDLING OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES. GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN THE FLATTEST/MOST
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH. MEANWHILE, THE 00Z/07 ECMWF CONTINUES
TO INDICATE A SHARPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY/MONDAY. A SHARPER SOLUTION WOULD
TRANSLATE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER NORTH BREEZES
ESPECIALLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TOUGH TO
IGNORE THE ECMWF SO HAVE BLENDED ABOUT 40 PERCENT OF ECMWF INTO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH HAS LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A FEW
DEGREES AND SHOWS MORE NORTH WIND FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A TYPICAL LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND COMPONENTS WILL
DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SCT-BKN CLOUDS
ABOVE 15 KFT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT THIS
AFTERNOON. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM SIMON WILL SPREAD
OVER SOUTHERN SAN BERNARDINO AND MOHAVE COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-40.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ADAIR
PREV DISCUSSION...SALMEN/PIERCE
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
128 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ALOFT BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1053 AM EDT TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF
THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING HAS MOVED
NORTH INTO QUEBEC. HAVE OPTED TO LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. WILL STILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NORTHERN NEW YORK...
AS SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO
LATE THIS MORNING. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SOME SUNNY
BREAKS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK STATE AT THIS TIME...
SO COULD SEE SOME PARTLY SUNNY BREAKS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 906 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADD
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS OUR SLV ZONES PER CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. BTV6 APPEARS TO BE CAPTURING THIS ACTIVITY QUITE WELL SO
LEANED TOWARD ITS SOLUTION. ACTIVITY LIKELY BEING DRIVEN AT LEAST
TO SOME EXTENT BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER LAKE ONTARIO...AS
BUOYANCY/SHOWALTER PROGS ELSEWHERE BASICALLY NON- EXISTENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
IN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THIS MORNING UNDER SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITH THE FIRST OF SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS LIFTING INTO WESTERN
PA/NY. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
STREAMING OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH ANOTHER BATCH UPSTREAM
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN PA AND CENTRAL NY. LATEST HI-RES HRRR AND
RAP MODELS ARE HANDLING THE CURRENT CONDITIONS FAIRLY WELL...AND
SHOW UPSTREAM PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
SUNRISE THIS MORNING WITH A LITTLE ENHANCEMENT AS IT MOVES
NORTH...BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT. SO WHILE THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE
SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING...OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE
LOW...JUST ENOUGH TO WET THE ROADS. BY THIS AFTERNOON WE`LL SEE A
BREAK IN ACTIVITY IN- BETWEEN SHORTWAVES WITH A FEW POKES OF SUN
LIKELY RIGHT AROUND SUNSET. A RELATIVELY POTENT SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER THE REGION AS WELL SO WE`LL SEE CONTINUED
GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE THROUGH THIS MORNING...ABATING
SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND
GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 433 AM EDT TUESDAY...AFTER A BREAK BREAK IN THE ACTION...A SECOND
AND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE BTV CWA
TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A MORE ORGANIZED PERIOD OF RAIN. AS WAS THE
CASE UPSTREAM TONIGHT...A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS AN AREA OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANIES THE
ENERGY ALOFT. IN ADDITION...SOUTHERLY LOW-MID JET REDEVELOPS AGAIN
AS WELL WITH ANOTHER RELATIVELY MILD AND BREEZY NIGHT EXPECTED
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MOST.
BULK OF THE PRECIP SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF JAMES BAY. ALOFT WE
REMAIN UNDER BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WHILE THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET SHIFTS NORTH OF THE BORDER...MEAN 925-850MB FLOW OF 30-40KTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY SOME
LAKE EFFECT WEDS NIGHT THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
TRENDS DRIER BUT COOLER AS COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES POST-FRONTAL
PASSAGE. 850MB TEMPS FALL BELOW 0C WITH A CHILLY THOUGH NEAR
NORMAL NIGHT EXPECTED WEDS NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. ONE LAST SHORTWAVE SKIMS IN THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...BUT BY AND LARGE CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY...COOL AND BRISK
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND MODEST WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 328 AM EDT TUESDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH GOOD CONSISTENCY
NOTED BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS. THE FORECAST PERIOD
BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION WITH A RETURN TO ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW. MAY SEE
A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS ONCE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. LOW TEMPS THURSDAY
NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. FRIDAY LIKEWISE LOOKS TRANQUIL WITH WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE 53-57F RANGE.
A DEVELOPING SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SLOWLY EASTWARD BRINGING A
PLEASANT WEEKEND TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND DRY WEATHER. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS SURFACE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THAT SAID...MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40 (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THE COLDEST 850MB
TEMPERATURES (-2C TO -3C) ARE IN PLACE ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SURFACE HIGH ON SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW-MID 50S. THE AIR MASS MODERATES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. ON
MONDAY...SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY
500MB FLOW. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S...BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A DEVELOPING CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY (30-40 POPS...HIGHEST WEST).
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...WIDELY SCT -SHRAS AND BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE
AT KPBG/KSLK THROUGH 21Z...OTW VFR THROUGH 04-06Z TIME FRAME AS
DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS MORNING`S RAFL EXITS NORTHEAST
AND STRONGER ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY TO 20-25 KTS...TRENDING
MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND ABATING THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LATTER ENERGY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
STEADIER SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER TO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO
THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF STEADIER PCPN GENERALLY
IN THE 04-13Z TIME FRAME WHEN A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY LLWS OF 35-50 KT ALSO LIKELY AS LOW LEVEL JET
TRAVERSES THE REGION. STRONGEST LLWS LIKELY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE
ENHANCED VALLEY CHANNELING EFFECTS EXPECTED. AFTER
12/14Z...STEADIER RAINFALL EXITS NORTHEAST...AS CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE. COULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS.
WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY TO 25 KTS.
OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. COULD SEE A
PASSING SHOWER AND BRIEF MVFR AT A FEW SPOTS THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY...OTW JUST SCT/BKN VFR CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS MORNING WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
PRODUCING WAVES ON ORDER OF 2 TO 4 FEET. A LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING BRIEFLY WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
DROPPING OFF SLIGHTLY...BUT STRENGTHENS AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH WINDS PICKING BACK UP ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS AND
REMAINING STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT ROUGH BOATING
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG/WGH/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...LAHIFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1053 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ALOFT BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1053 AM EDT TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF
THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING HAS MOVED
NORTH INTO QUEBEC. HAVE OPTED TO LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. WILL STILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NORTHERN NEW YORK...
AS SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO
LATE THIS MORNING. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SOME SUNNY
BREAKS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK STATE AT THIS TIME...
SO COULD SEE SOME PARTLY SUNNY BREAKS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 906 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADD
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS OUR SLV ZONES PER CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. BTV6 APPEARS TO BE CAPTURING THIS ACTIVITY QUITE WELL SO
LEANED TOWARD ITS SOLUTION. ACTIVITY LIKELY BEING DRIVEN AT LEAST
TO SOME EXTENT BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER LAKE ONTARIO...AS
BUOYANCY/SHOWALTER PROGS ELSEWHERE BASICALLY NON- EXISTENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
IN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THIS MORNING UNDER SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITH THE FIRST OF SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS LIFTING INTO WESTERN
PA/NY. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
STREAMING OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH ANOTHER BATCH UPSTREAM
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN PA AND CENTRAL NY. LATEST HI-RES HRRR AND
RAP MODELS ARE HANDLING THE CURRENT CONDITIONS FAIRLY WELL...AND
SHOW UPSTREAM PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
SUNRISE THIS MORNING WITH A LITTLE ENHANCEMENT AS IT MOVES
NORTH...BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT. SO WHILE THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE
SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING...OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE
LOW...JUST ENOUGH TO WET THE ROADS. BY THIS AFTERNOON WE`LL SEE A
BREAK IN ACTIVITY IN- BETWEEN SHORTWAVES WITH A FEW POKES OF SUN
LIKELY RIGHT AROUND SUNSET. A RELATIVELY POTENT SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER THE REGION AS WELL SO WE`LL SEE CONTINUED
GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE THROUGH THIS MORNING...ABATING
SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND
GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 433 AM EDT TUESDAY...AFTER A BREAK BREAK IN THE ACTION...A SECOND
AND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE BTV CWA
TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A MORE ORGANIZED PERIOD OF RAIN. AS WAS THE
CASE UPSTREAM TONIGHT...A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS AN AREA OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANIES THE
ENERGY ALOFT. IN ADDITION...SOUTHERLY LOW-MID JET REDEVELOPS AGAIN
AS WELL WITH ANOTHER RELATIVELY MILD AND BREEZY NIGHT EXPECTED
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MOST.
BULK OF THE PRECIP SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF JAMES BAY. ALOFT WE
REMAIN UNDER BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WHILE THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET SHIFTS NORTH OF THE BORDER...MEAN 925-850MB FLOW OF 30-40KTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY SOME
LAKE EFFECT WEDS NIGHT THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
TRENDS DRIER BUT COOLER AS COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES POST-FRONTAL
PASSAGE. 850MB TEMPS FALL BELOW 0C WITH A CHILLY THOUGH NEAR
NORMAL NIGHT EXPECTED WEDS NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. ONE LAST SHORTWAVE SKIMS IN THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...BUT BY AND LARGE CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY...COOL AND BRISK
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND MODEST WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 328 AM EDT TUESDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH GOOD CONSISTENCY
NOTED BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS. THE FORECAST PERIOD
BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION WITH A RETURN TO ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW. MAY SEE
A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS ONCE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. LOW TEMPS THURSDAY
NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. FRIDAY LIKEWISE LOOKS TRANQUIL WITH WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE 53-57F RANGE.
A DEVELOPING SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SLOWLY EASTWARD BRINGING A
PLEASANT WEEKEND TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND DRY WEATHER. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS SURFACE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THAT SAID...MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40 (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THE COLDEST 850MB
TEMPERATURES (-2C TO -3C) ARE IN PLACE ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SURFACE HIGH ON SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW-MID 50S. THE AIR MASS MODERATES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. ON
MONDAY...SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY
500MB FLOW. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S...BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A DEVELOPING CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY (30-40 POPS...HIGHEST WEST).
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING NEWD
THROUGH WESTERN NY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TAF SITES THRU 14-15Z THIS MORNING. NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY PROLONGED MVFR/IFR...BUT BRIEF INTERVALS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
15Z ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THEREAFTER...SHOULD SEE A
PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
REINTRODUCE CEILINGS AROUND 4-5KFT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY AND INTERVALS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY
POSSIBLE 06-12Z IN RAIN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTH
TODAY...WITH AREAS OF TURBULENCE/SHEAR ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. 40-50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE 3-4 KFT
AND GENERALLY ABOVE LLWS THRESHOLDS FOR INCLUSION AT THE TAF
LOCATIONS EARLY THIS AM. SHOULD SEE VERTICAL SHEAR DECREASE AFTER
14Z THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY. WITH LOW-LEVEL JET BETWEEN 1.5-2 KFT LATE TONIGHT. DID
INCLUDE LLWS 05-12Z AT THE TAF LOCATIONS FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING NEWD WILL BRING MORNING
RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY...ALONG WITH GUSTY S-SW
WINDS. GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS MORNING WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
PRODUCING WAVES ON ORDER OF 2 TO 4 FEET. A LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING BRIEFLY WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
DROPPING OFF SLIGHTLY...BUT STRENGTHENS AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH WINDS PICKING BACK UP ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS AND
REMAINING STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT ROUGH BOATING
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG/WGH/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...LAHIFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
906 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ALOFT BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 906 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ACROSS OUR SLV ZONES PER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. BTV6
APPEARS TO BE CAPTURING THIS ACTIVITY QUITE WELL SO LEANED TOWARD
ITS SOLUTION. ACTIVITY LIKELY BEING DRIVEN AT LEAST TO SOME EXTENT
BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER LAKE ONTARIO...AS BUOYANCY/SHOWALTER
PROGS ELSEWHERE BASICALLY NON-EXISTENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
IN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THIS MORNING UNDER SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITH THE FIRST OF SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS LIFTING INTO WESTERN
PA/NY. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
STREAMING OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH ANOTHER BATCH UPSTREAM
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN PA AND CENTRAL NY. LATEST HI-RES HRRR AND
RAP MODELS ARE HANDLING THE CURRENT CONDITIONS FAIRLY WELL...AND
SHOW UPSTREAM PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
SUNRISE THIS MORNING WITH A LITTLE ENHANCEMENT AS IT MOVES
NORTH...BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT. SO WHILE THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE
SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING...OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE
LOW...JUST ENOUGH TO WET THE ROADS. BY THIS AFTERNOON WE`LL SEE A
BREAK IN ACTIVITY IN- BETWEEN SHORTWAVES WITH A FEW POKES OF SUN
LIKELY RIGHT AROUND SUNSET. A RELATIVELY POTENT SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER THE REGION AS WELL SO WE`LL SEE CONTINUED
GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE THROUGH THIS MORNING...ABATING
SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND
GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 433 AM EDT TUESDAY...AFTER A BREAK BREAK IN THE ACTION...A SECOND
AND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE BTV CWA
TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A MORE ORGANIZED PERIOD OF RAIN. AS WAS THE
CASE UPSTREAM TONIGHT...A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS AN AREA OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANIES THE
ENERGY ALOFT. IN ADDITION...SOUTHERLY LOW-MID JET REDEVELOPS AGAIN
AS WELL WITH ANOTHER RELATIVELY MILD AND BREEZY NIGHT EXPECTED
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MOST.
BULK OF THE PRECIP SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF JAMES BAY. ALOFT WE
REMAIN UNDER BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WHILE THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET SHIFTS NORTH OF THE BORDER...MEAN 925-850MB FLOW OF 30-40KTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY SOME
LAKE EFFECT WEDS NIGHT THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
TRENDS DRIER BUT COOLER AS COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES POST-FRONTAL
PASSAGE. 850MB TEMPS FALL BELOW 0C WITH A CHILLY THOUGH NEAR
NORMAL NIGHT EXPECTED WEDS NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. ONE LAST SHORTWAVE SKIMS IN THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...BUT BY AND LARGE CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY...COOL AND BRISK
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND MODEST WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 328 AM EDT TUESDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH GOOD CONSISTENCY
NOTED BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS. THE FORECAST PERIOD
BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION WITH A RETURN TO ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW. MAY SEE
A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS ONCE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. LOW TEMPS THURSDAY
NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. FRIDAY LIKEWISE LOOKS TRANQUIL WITH WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE 53-57F RANGE.
A DEVELOPING SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SLOWLY EASTWARD BRINGING A
PLEASANT WEEKEND TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND DRY WEATHER. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS SURFACE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THAT SAID...MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40 (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THE COLDEST 850MB
TEMPERATURES (-2C TO -3C) ARE IN PLACE ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SURFACE HIGH ON SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW-MID 50S. THE AIR MASS MODERATES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. ON
MONDAY...SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY
500MB FLOW. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S...BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A DEVELOPING CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY (30-40 POPS...HIGHEST WEST).
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING NEWD
THROUGH WESTERN NY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TAF SITES THRU 14-15Z THIS MORNING. NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY PROLONGED MVFR/IFR...BUT BRIEF INTERVALS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
15Z ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THEREAFTER...SHOULD SEE A
PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
REINTRODUCE CEILINGS AROUND 4-5KFT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY AND INTERVALS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY
POSSIBLE 06-12Z IN RAIN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTH
TODAY...WITH AREAS OF TURBULENCE/SHEAR ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. 40-50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE 3-4 KFT
AND GENERALLY ABOVE LLWS THRESHOLDS FOR INCLUSION AT THE TAF
LOCATIONS EARLY THIS AM. SHOULD SEE VERTICAL SHEAR DECREASE AFTER
14Z THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY. WITH LOW-LEVEL JET BETWEEN 1.5-2 KFT LATE TONIGHT. DID
INCLUDE LLWS 05-12Z AT THE TAF LOCATIONS FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING NEWD WILL BRING MORNING
RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY...ALONG WITH GUSTY S-SW
WINDS. GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS MORNING WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
PRODUCING WAVES ON ORDER OF 2 TO 4 FEET. A LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING BRIEFLY WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
DROPPING OFF SLIGHTLY...BUT STRENGTHENS AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH WINDS PICKING BACK UP ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS AND
REMAINING STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT ROUGH BOATING
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...LAHIFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
750 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ALOFT BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 706 AM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH
JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS NEEDED TO MATCH OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
IN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THIS MORNING UNDER SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITH THE FIRST OF SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS LIFTING INTO WESTERN
PA/NY. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
STREAMING OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH ANOTHER BATCH UPSTREAM
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN PA AND CENTRAL NY. LATEST HI-RES HRRR AND
RAP MODELS ARE HANDLING THE CURRENT CONDITIONS FAIRLY WELL...AND
SHOW UPSTREAM PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
SUNRISE THIS MORNING WITH A LITTLE ENHANCEMENT AS IT MOVES
NORTH...BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT. SO WHILE THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE
SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING...OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE
LOW...JUST ENOUGH TO WET THE ROADS. BY THIS AFTERNOON WE`LL SEE A
BREAK IN ACTIVITY IN- BETWEEN SHORTWAVES WITH A FEW POKES OF SUN
LIKELY RIGHT AROUND SUNSET. A RELATIVELY POTENT SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER THE REGION AS WELL SO WE`LL SEE CONTINUED
GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE THROUGH THIS MORNING...ABATING
SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND
GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 433 AM EDT TUESDAY...AFTER A BREAK BREAK IN THE ACTION...A SECOND
AND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE BTV CWA
TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A MORE ORGANIZED PERIOD OF RAIN. AS WAS THE
CASE UPSTREAM TONIGHT...A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS AN AREA OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANIES THE
ENERGY ALOFT. IN ADDITION...SOUTHERLY LOW-MID JET REDEVELOPS AGAIN
AS WELL WITH ANOTHER RELATIVELY MILD AND BREEZY NIGHT EXPECTED
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MOST.
BULK OF THE PRECIP SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF JAMES BAY. ALOFT WE
REMAIN UNDER BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WHILE THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET SHIFTS NORTH OF THE BORDER...MEAN 925-850MB FLOW OF 30-40KTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY SOME
LAKE EFFECT WEDS NIGHT THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
TRENDS DRIER BUT COOLER AS COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES POST-FRONTAL
PASSAGE. 850MB TEMPS FALL BELOW 0C WITH A CHILLY THOUGH NEAR
NORMAL NIGHT EXPECTED WEDS NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. ONE LAST SHORTWAVE SKIMS IN THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...BUT BY AND LARGE CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY...COOL AND BRISK
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND MODEST WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 328 AM EDT TUESDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH GOOD CONSISTENCY
NOTED BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS. THE FORECAST PERIOD
BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION WITH A RETURN TO ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW. MAY SEE
A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS ONCE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. LOW TEMPS THURSDAY
NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. FRIDAY LIKEWISE LOOKS TRANQUIL WITH WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE 53-57F RANGE.
A DEVELOPING SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SLOWLY EASTWARD BRINGING A
PLEASANT WEEKEND TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND DRY WEATHER. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS SURFACE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THAT SAID...MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40 (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THE COLDEST 850MB
TEMPERATURES (-2C TO -3C) ARE IN PLACE ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SURFACE HIGH ON SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW-MID 50S. THE AIR MASS MODERATES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. ON
MONDAY...SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY
500MB FLOW. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S...BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A DEVELOPING CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY (30-40 POPS...HIGHEST WEST).
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING NEWD
THROUGH WESTERN NY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TAF SITES THRU 14-15Z THIS MORNING. NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY PROLONGED MVFR/IFR...BUT BRIEF INTERVALS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
15Z ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THEREAFTER...SHOULD SEE A
PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
REINTRODUCE CEILINGS AROUND 4-5KFT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY AND INTERVALS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY
POSSIBLE 06-12Z IN RAIN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTH
TODAY...WITH AREAS OF TURBULENCE/SHEAR ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. 40-50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE 3-4 KFT
AND GENERALLY ABOVE LLWS THRESHOLDS FOR INCLUSION AT THE TAF
LOCATIONS EARLY THIS AM. SHOULD SEE VERTICAL SHEAR DECREASE AFTER
14Z THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY. WITH LOW-LEVEL JET BETWEEN 1.5-2 KFT LATE TONIGHT. DID
INCLUDE LLWS 05-12Z AT THE TAF LOCATIONS FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING NEWD WILL BRING MORNING
RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY...ALONG WITH GUSTY S-SW
WINDS. GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS MORNING WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
PRODUCING WAVES ON ORDER OF 2 TO 4 FEET. A LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING BRIEFLY WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
DROPPING OFF SLIGHTLY...BUT STRENGTHENS AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH WINDS PICKING BACK UP ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS AND
REMAINING STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT ROUGH BOATING
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...LAHIFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
706 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ALOFT BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 706 AM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH
JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS NEEDED TO MATCH OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
IN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THIS MORNING UNDER SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITH THE FIRST OF SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS LIFTING INTO WESTERN
PA/NY. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
STREAMING OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH ANOTHER BATCH UPSTREAM
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN PA AND CENTRAL NY. LATEST HI-RES HRRR AND
RAP MODELS ARE HANDLING THE CURRENT CONDITIONS FAIRLY WELL...AND
SHOW UPSTREAM PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
SUNRISE THIS MORNING WITH A LITTLE ENHANCEMENT AS IT MOVES
NORTH...BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT. SO WHILE THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE
SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING...OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE
LOW...JUST ENOUGH TO WET THE ROADS. BY THIS AFTERNOON WE`LL SEE A
BREAK IN ACTIVITY IN- BETWEEN SHORTWAVES WITH A FEW POKES OF SUN
LIKELY RIGHT AROUND SUNSET. A RELATIVELY POTENT SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER THE REGION AS WELL SO WE`LL SEE CONTINUED
GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE THROUGH THIS MORNING...ABATING
SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND
GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 433 AM EDT TUESDAY...AFTER A BREAK BREAK IN THE ACTION...A SECOND
AND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE BTV CWA
TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A MORE ORGANIZED PERIOD OF RAIN. AS WAS THE
CASE UPSTREAM TONIGHT...A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS AN AREA OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANIES THE
ENERGY ALOFT. IN ADDITION...SOUTHERLY LOW-MID JET REDEVELOPS AGAIN
AS WELL WITH ANOTHER RELATIVELY MILD AND BREEZY NIGHT EXPECTED
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MOST.
BULK OF THE PRECIP SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF JAMES BAY. ALOFT WE
REMAIN UNDER BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WHILE THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET SHIFTS NORTH OF THE BORDER...MEAN 925-850MB FLOW OF 30-40KTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY SOME
LAKE EFFECT WEDS NIGHT THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
TRENDS DRIER BUT COOLER AS COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES POST-FRONTAL
PASSAGE. 850MB TEMPS FALL BELOW 0C WITH A CHILLY THOUGH NEAR
NORMAL NIGHT EXPECTED WEDS NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. ONE LAST SHORTWAVE SKIMS IN THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...BUT BY AND LARGE CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY...COOL AND BRISK
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND MODEST WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 328 AM EDT TUESDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH GOOD CONSISTENCY
NOTED BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS. THE FORECAST PERIOD
BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION WITH A RETURN TO ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW. MAY SEE
A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS ONCE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. LOW TEMPS THURSDAY
NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. FRIDAY LIKEWISE LOOKS TRANQUIL WITH WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE 53-57F RANGE.
A DEVELOPING SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SLOWLY EASTWARD BRINGING A
PLEASANT WEEKEND TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND DRY WEATHER. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS SURFACE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THAT SAID...MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40 (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THE COLDEST 850MB
TEMPERATURES (-2C TO -3C) ARE IN PLACE ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SURFACE HIGH ON SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW-MID 50S. THE AIR MASS MODERATES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. ON
MONDAY...SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY
500MB FLOW. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S...BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A DEVELOPING CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY (30-40 POPS...HIGHEST WEST).
&&
.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING NEWD
OUT OF THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TAF SITES THIS MORNING. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY PROLONGED MVFR/IFR...BUT BRIEF INTERVALS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z ASSOCIATED WITH PERIODIC SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THEREAFTER...SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL REINTRODUCE CEILINGS AROUND
4-5KFT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND INTERVALS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN S-SE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WILL
CREATE AREAS OF TURBULENCE/SHEAR ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. 40-50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE 3-4 KFT AND
GENERALLY ABOVE LLWS THRESHOLDS FOR INCLUSION AT THE TAF
LOCATIONS. SHOULD SEE VERTICAL SHEAR DECREASE AFTER 14Z THIS
MORNING. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTS 25
KTS POSSIBLE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING NEWD WILL BRING MORNING
RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY...ALONG WITH GUSTY S-SW
WINDS. GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS MORNING WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
PRODUCING WAVES ON ORDER OF 2 TO 4 FEET. A LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING BRIEFLY WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
DROPPING OFF SLIGHTLY...BUT STRENGTHENS AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH WINDS PICKING BACK UP ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS AND
REMAINING STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT ROUGH BOATING
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...LAHIFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
434 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ALOFT BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 433 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED IN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THIS MORNING UNDER SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH THE FIRST OF SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TO AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS LIFTING
INTO WESTERN PA/NY. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS STREAMING OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH ANOTHER BATCH
UPSTREAM MOVING THROUGH EASTERN PA AND CENTRAL NY. LATEST HI-RES
HRRR AND RAP MODELS ARE HANDLING THE CURRENT CONDITIONS FAIRLY
WELL...AND SHOW UPSTREAM PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING WITH A LITTLE ENHANCEMENT AS IT MOVES
NORTH...BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT. SO WHILE THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE
SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING...OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE
LOW...JUST ENOUGH TO WET THE ROADS. BY THIS AFTERNOON WE`LL SEE A
BREAK IN ACTIVITY IN-BETWEEN SHORTWAVES WITH A FEW POKES OF SUN
LIKELY RIGHT AROUND SUNSET. A RELATIVELY POTENT SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER THE REGION AS WELL SO WE`LL SEE CONTINUED
GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE THROUGH THIS MORNING...ABATING
SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND
GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 433 AM EDT TUESDAY...AFTER A BREAK BREAK IN THE ACTION...A SECOND
AND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE BTV CWA
TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A MORE ORGANIZED PERIOD OF RAIN. AS WAS THE
CASE UPSTREAM TONIGHT...A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS AN AREA OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANIES THE
ENERGY ALOFT. IN ADDITION...SOUTHERLY LOW-MID JET REDEVELOPS AGAIN
AS WELL WITH ANOTHER RELATIVELY MILD AND BREEZY NIGHT EXPECTED
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MOST.
BULK OF THE PRECIP SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF JAMES BAY. ALOFT WE
REMAIN UNDER BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WHILE THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET SHIFTS NORTH OF THE BORDER...MEAN 925-850MB FLOW OF 30-40KTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY SOME
LAKE EFFECT WEDS NIGHT THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
TRENDS DRIER BUT COOLER AS COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES POST-FRONTAL
PASSAGE. 850MB TEMPS FALL BELOW 0C WITH A CHILLY THOUGH NEAR
NORMAL NIGHT EXPECTED WEDS NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. ONE LAST SHORTWAVE SKIMS IN THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...BUT BY AND LARGE CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY...COOL AND BRISK
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND MODEST WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 328 AM EDT TUESDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH GOOD CONSISTENCY
NOTED BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS. THE FORECAST PERIOD
BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION WITH A RETURN TO ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW. MAY SEE
A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS ONCE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. LOW TEMPS THURSDAY
NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. FRIDAY LIKEWISE LOOKS TRANQUIL WITH WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE 53-57F RANGE.
A DEVELOPING SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SLOWLY EASTWARD BRINGING A
PLEASANT WEEKEND TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND DRY WEATHER. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS SURFACE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THAT SAID...MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40 (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THE COLDEST 850MB
TEMPERATURES (-2C TO -3C) ARE IN PLACE ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SURFACE HIGH ON SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW-MID 50S. THE AIR MASS MODERATES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. ON
MONDAY...SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY
500MB FLOW. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S...BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A DEVELOPING CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY (30-40 POPS...HIGHEST WEST).
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING NEWD
OUT OF THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TAF SITES THIS MORNING. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY PROLONGED MVFR/IFR...BUT BRIEF INTERVALS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z ASSOCIATED WITH PERIODIC SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THEREAFTER...SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL REINTRODUCE CEILINGS AROUND
4-5KFT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND INTERVALS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN S-SE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WILL
CREATE AREAS OF TURBULENCE/SHEAR ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. 40-50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE 3-4 KFT AND
GENERALLY ABOVE LLWS THRESHOLDS FOR INCLUSION AT THE TAF
LOCATIONS. SHOULD SEE VERTICAL SHEAR DECREASE AFTER 14Z THIS
MORNING. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTS 25
KTS POSSIBLE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING NEWD WILL BRING MORNING
RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY...ALONG WITH GUSTY S-SW
WINDS. GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS MORNING WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
PRODUCING WAVES ON ORDER OF 2 TO 4 FEET. A LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING BRIEFLY WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
DROPPING OFF SLIGHTLY...BUT STRENGTHENS AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH WINDS PICKING BACK UP ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS AND
REMAINING STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT ROUGH BOATING
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...LAHIFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
937 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN MORTON COUNTY INTO EASTERN SIOUX...EMMONS AND
MCINTOSH COUNTIES THROUGH AROUND 1 AM CENTRAL. OTHERWISE MAINLY
CLEAR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTHWEST WITH A BAND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT NORTH WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND WITH
TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE LOWER 30S. TOUGH CALL ELSEWHERE WITH
THE REMAINING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A BAND OF THICKER HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO TEMPERATURES HERE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
DAKOTAS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FOR THE
EVENING UPDATED ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND BACKED OFF ON POPS ACROSS
THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. LATEST 21 UTC HRRR AND 22 UTC RAP
CONTINUE TO INDICATE POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINING OVER
MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THUS
LATEST POPS WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE MESOSCALE MODELS WITH
CURRENT RADAR ACTIVITY. THUS A LESS WIDESPREAD AREA OF SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA INTO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH STRETCHING THROUGH THE MIDWEST
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE LOW PUSHES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
JAMES BAY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BRINGING NORTHWEST FLOW TO OUR AREA. A
FEW SUBTLE SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE FLOW BRINGING
SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO PARTS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF AND SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...WITH QUIET WEATHER THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...CHILLY
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
ON THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS RIDGE TO THE
WEST AMPLIFIES AND STARTS PUSHING A BIT TO THE EAST BRINGING
DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS THE SATURDAY WARM UP FOLLOWED BY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. USED MAINLY A CONSENSUS
MODEL BLEND FOR DETAILS.
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND COOL DRY HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN TO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA. MORNING LOWS FRIDAY MORNING AROUND 30F IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WITH MID/UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST. A COOL AND QUIET DAY
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. A SMALL AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CLIPS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE STATE...JUST ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE COOL SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST...AND A SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW COMMENCES. NOT AS COOL SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE
35 TO 40 RANGE. ON SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH.
THE UPPER LEVEL AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT...EXITING INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH
SUNDAY. THE GFS DEVELOPS FAST-MOVING ZONAL WEST-TO-EAST FLOW ALOFT
WHICH COULD BRING SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME TO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE EUROPEAN MODEL DEVELOPS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE INSTEAD...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL TUESDAY...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTIONS IN THE NORTH - THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
SUGGEST SOME ENERGY IN SOUTHERN CANADA POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE
NORTHERN TIER.
OTHERWISE FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAINLY
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS LATE THIS EVENING FROM 7K-10K FT ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL INCLUDING KISN...KDIK AND KBIS. HAVE
REMOVED THE VCSH AT KBIS WITH PRECIPITATION REMAINING TO THE SOUTH
OF KBIS. EXPECT SKY COVER TO THE DIMINISH SLOWLY LATE TONIGHT
WITH ONLY SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AT 10 KTS
OR LESS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
636 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
DAKOTAS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FOR THE
EVENING UPDATED ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND BACKED OFF ON POPS ACROSS
THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. LATEST 21 UTC HRRR AND 22 UTC RAP
CONTINUE TO INDICATE POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINING OVER
MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THUS
LATEST POPS WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE MESOSCALE MODELS WITH
CURRENT RADAR ACTIVITY. THUS A LESS WIDESPREAD AREA OF SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA INTO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH STRETCHING THROUGH THE MIDWEST
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE LOW PUSHES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
JAMES BAY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BRINGING NORTHWEST FLOW TO OUR AREA. A
FEW SUBTLE SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE FLOW BRINGING
SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO PARTS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF AND SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...WITH QUIET WEATHER THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...CHILLY
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
ON THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS RIDGE TO THE
WEST AMPLIFIES AND STARTS PUSHING A BIT TO THE EAST BRINGING
DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS THE SATURDAY WARM UP FOLLOWED BY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. USED MAINLY A CONSENSUS
MODEL BLEND FOR DETAILS.
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND COOL DRY HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN TO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA. MORNING LOWS FRIDAY MORNING AROUND 30F IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WITH MID/UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST. A COOL AND QUIET DAY
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. A SMALL AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CLIPS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE STATE...JUST ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE COOL SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST...AND A SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW COMMENCES. NOT AS COOL SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE
35 TO 40 RANGE. ON SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH.
THE UPPER LEVEL AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT...EXITING INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH
SUNDAY. THE GFS DEVELOPS FAST-MOVING ZONAL WEST-TO-EAST FLOW ALOFT
WHICH COULD BRING SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME TO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE EUROPEAN MODEL DEVELOPS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE INSTEAD...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL TUESDAY...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTIONS IN THE NORTH - THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
SUGGEST SOME ENERGY IN SOUTHERN CANADA POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE
NORTHERN TIER.
OTHERWISE FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAINLY
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING FROM 7K-10K FT ACROSS THE WEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL INCLUDING KISN...KDIK AND KBIS. DID INCLUDE A
VCSH AT KBIS THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY. EXPECT SKY COVER TO THE
DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT WITH ONLY SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ON
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AT 10 KTS OR LESS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
606 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY A DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MAY INFLUENCE THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AS WELL. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BACK EDGE OF MAIN SYNOPTIC BAND OF PRECIP NOW ABOUT HALF WAY ACROSS
THE CWA. AFTER THIS BAND...MAINLY JUST A NARROW BAND ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT. HRRR AND RUC HAVE A LOT OF THE COLD FRONT CONVECTION
NOW IN INDIANA AND LWR MI WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES EAST...PROBABLY
DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT WILL NOT BUY OFF ON THIS AS
MUCH AS THESE MODELS SHOW. WILL ADJUST POPS/WX TO BEST FIT CURRENT
SITUATION WITH PROJECTION INTO NEXT FEW HOURS. A LITTLE LIGHTNING
SHOWING UP IN A FEW SPOTS SO WILL STAY WITH SLIGHT MENTION OF
THUNDER.
OVERNIGHT FORCING AND BEST MOISTURE MOVE EAST WITH DRYING MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE WAVE.
AFTER MIDNIGHT POPS TAPER TO JUST A CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES INTO NWRN PA. GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S LOOK
FINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER
LOW NORTH OF THE LAKES FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL EAST. NAM12 SHOWS
FAIRLY DRY AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA. ENOUGH MOISTURE HANGS OVER
THE NORTHEAST TO HOLD ONTO CLOUDS THERE HOWEVER. 850MB TEMPS NEAR
0C WED AFTERNOON AND BUFKIT SHOWS ONLY CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY
WITH REGARD TO THE LAKE WHICH IS AT 63F OFF KCLE SO FOR NOW HIGH
CHANCE POPS LOOK FINE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS NWRN PA...OTHERWISE DRY AS WEAK HIGH APPEARS TO HOLD
ON AHEAD OF APPROACHING OVERRUNNING MOISTURE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MODELS HAVE BEEN AND CONTINUE TO BE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH
HOW FAR NORTH THE DEEP MOISTURE REACHES. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOIST
MODEL WITH THE NAM NOW HOLDING THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
THE SREF OFFERS NO STARK RESOLUTION BETWEEN THE OTHER TWO. SO FOR
NOW WILL BRING AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...MAINLY
SOUTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT
DRY AIR AND HIGHER PRESSURE BUILD TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE SKIES. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION
ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST AS WELL INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A
RETURN BACK TO A THREAT FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EAST AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL SETUP SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW BY MONDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THE LOW
WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RETURN AS THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES LODGED
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS AND THE SOUTHERN FLOW PUMPS WARMER AIR AND
MORE MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
OCCASIONAL LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO LOWER THIS EVENING WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE
WESTERLY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECTING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE INCREASING BY MORNING TO
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SOME TIME. EXPECTING
THE POSSIBILITY THAT WINDS COULD DIE DOWN FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. ONCE THE TROUGH GOES BY
WINDS WILL INCREASE QUITE A BIT LATER TONIGHT. SO WILL JUST GO AHEAD
AND KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING. BEST AREA FOR THE LIGHTER
WINDS IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AREA WILL BE NORTH OF CLEVELAND. I
STILL THINK SMALL CRAFT WILL BE WARRANTED THERE ONCE WINDS SHIFT
LATER ON THIS EVENING. JUST SPOKE WITH OUR FRIENDS IN CANADA ON
POSSIBLE GALE WARNING FOR LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY. WE DECIDED TO HOLD
OFF ON THE ISSUANCE DUE TO THE WINDS INCREASING TO 30 KNOTS AND NOT
EXPECTED TO QUITE REACH GALES. IF IT DOES...IT SHOULD ONLY LAST A
FEW HOURS. SO WILL HOLD OFF ON THE GALE FOR NOW. WINDS FINALLY
DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS INTO
SATURDAY. EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ON SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
559 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE ILN CWA...LEAVING
A MUCH MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES OVER
THE ILN CWA...EVEN IN THE FAR SOUTH WHERE CONDITIONS WERE ONCE
WARMER...ARE NOW IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.
HOWEVER...A SHARP GRADIENT IN BOTH T/TD AND INSTABILITY STILL
EXISTS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST BORDER OF THE CWA...WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UNTOUCHED AIR NEAR LOUISVILLE AS HIGH AS THE MID 70S.
WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME QUESTION IN THE FORECAST FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
NEW BAND OF CONVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ILN FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. A BROKEN LINE OF CUMULUS EXTENDING FROM
FRANKFORT KENTUCKY TO WASHINGTON INDIANA WAS THE FIRST SIGN THAT
THIS MAY OCCUR...AND NOW PROTO-SUPERCELLS ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF
LOUISVILLE. WHETHER OR NOT THIS ACTIVITY IS TRULY SURFACE-BASED OR
NOT IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT WITH SHEAR STILL SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE...THE DECISION WAS MADE TO KEEP THE TORNADO WATCH FOR
SEVERAL COUNTIES IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ILN CWA.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS INDIANA AND
NORTHWEST OHIO...AND THIS MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL THREAT OF STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND/HAIL CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THIS THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED...AND CAN BE HANDLED WITHOUT A WATCH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
THE ILN FORECAST AREA IS CURRENTLY COVERED BY A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS PRODUCING THUNDER
AND BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE...THOUGH THERE IS
ALSO A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING EAST INTO THE REGION AS WELL. DESPITE
THE WIDESPREAD RAIN...GUSTY SSW FLOW HAS LED TO INCREASES IN
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE...MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER FOR NOW. HOWEVER...AROUND 300-600 J/KG OF
MIXED LAYER CAPE IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE A FEW TIERS OF COUNTIES
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN GRADIENT
OF INSTABILITY (NORTH OF WHICH...LITTLE TO NO SURFACE INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED) WILL EXTEND ROUGHLY THROUGH THE ILN CWA ON A LINE
FROM FRANKLIN COUNTY INDIANA TO FAIRFIELD COUNTY OHIO. SOUTH OF
THIS...THE EVENTUAL CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
ROOTED AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND CAPABLE OF TAKING ADVANTAGE OF
A STRONG WIND PROFILE. THE EXIT REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET IS
MOVING OVER THE AREA. MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW OF 40-60 KNOTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAT WILL BE EASILY SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS...WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR (AIDED BY THE SSW FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER) COMES ALONG WITH SOME TURNING IN THE LOWEST ONE OR
TWO KILOMETERS. THE CURVED HODOGRAPHS COMBINE WITH THE DEEPER
SHEAR AND MOIST CONDITIONS TO SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT FOR THE
AREA NOW COVERED BY TORNADO WATCH 523. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT
FOR TORNADOES...COOL CONDITIONS ALOFT (FREEZING LEVELS OF 8-10
THOUSAND FEET) WILL ALLOW FOR HAIL TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN
ROTATING UPDRAFTS. A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND IS CERTAINLY PRESENT
AS WELL. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE AFFECTED AREA
MAY SEEM COOL AND DAMP...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTAIN BOUNDARY LAYER
LAPSE RATES AND PROFILES THAT ARE DEFINITELY NOT STABLE.
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL DISCRETE OR
SEMI-DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND BEHIND THE CURRENT CLUSTER OF
SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
ALREADY ONGOING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ILN CWA. HRRR/SPC-WRF
UPDRAFT HELICITY PRODUCTS INDICATE A LIKELIHOOD FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS IN THE AREA COVERED BY THE WATCH...AND TORNADO PARAMETERS
CALCULATED FROM SREF/RAP PROJECTIONS ALSO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
THE THREAT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING BY ROUGHLY 01Z.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH IS NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG...THOUGH SURFACE FLOW DOES TURN MORE WESTERLY AFTER SUNSET.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME DECREASES IN TEMPERATURE FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH A DROP IN SEVERAL DEGREES COMPARED TO MIN TEMPS LAST
NIGHT...WITH COOLEST READINGS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THOUGH SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOK VERY
DRY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT WESTERLY WINDS THAT MAY GUST TO AROUND 20
KNOTS DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONDITIONS CALM
CONSIDERABLY HEADED INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS THIS OCCURS AT THE SURFACE...QUICK MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL
SET UP ALOFT. CONVERGENCE ALONG A THETA-E BOUNDARY ALOFT WILL BEGIN
TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY...AS
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST AND SPREADS ACROSS THE
ILN CWA. THE DEVELOPING FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE AN IMPACT AT
THE SURFACE...LEADING TO A SLIGHTLY INCREASED TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AS IT SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES MOVING INTO
KENTUCKY BY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED MODELS START OFF IN GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT THEN DIVERGE BY
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM SIMON
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. A BOUNDARY IN PLACE
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA WILL
INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE RAIN WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE
OF EMBEDDED THUNDER. THE RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
SOUTH... WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH.
MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE EVIDENT DURING THE WEEKEND... AS THE
ECMWF POINTS TO A DRY PERIOD ON SATURDAY... WHILE THE GFS SHOWS ONLY
A BRIEF SHOT OF DRY AIR BEFORE PRECIP ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY. THIS TREND OF SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
SYSTEMS AND A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THE ECMWF PERSISTS THROUGH
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK... WHILE THE GFS TENDS TO BE FASTER AND LESS
AMPLIFIED. THE CANADIAN SOLUTION LEANS TOWARD THE ECMWF... AND WE
HAVE OPTED TO TEND TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALL OF THE SOLUTIONS DO KEY IN ON MOISTURE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THEREFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 60S FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING A FEW
DEGREES ON SATURDAY. THESE VALUES WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE 70S MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIG EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE
WILL COMBINE WITH A MOIST...AND AN INCREASING UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT THE SOUTHERN TAF
SITES OF KILN...KCVG AND KLUK WITH A LESSER THREAT FARTHER NORTH. AS
SUCH...HAVE PLACED VCTS AT KDAY...KCMH...AND KLCK. HOWEVER...WILL
MONITOR RADAR TRENDS SHOULD TEMPO TSRA BE NEEDED FOR THESE SITES.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND LOWER CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE MORE ROBUST SHOWERS AND
STRONGER STORMS.
AS THE DISTURBANCE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...OVERALL
DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. PCPN SHOULD END...AND DESPITE
A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST OVERNIGHT...WE SHOULD JUST SEE
SCATTERED CLOUDS. WIND FLOW MAY LIGHTEN ENOUGH AT KLUK FOR SOME
IFR VSBYS DUE TO RIVER FOG.
ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
FROM THE WEST. CAA CUMULUS CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING
ONWARD ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND. WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND
20 KNOTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST DURING THE MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
.OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
155 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL RETURN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONGLY FORCED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. AN EMBEDDED S/WV WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL BE THE
IMPETUS TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS FEATURE WILL
INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL JET SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
RAP AND NAM SUGGESTING POSSIBLE 50 TO 60 KNOTS AT 850 MB. OVERALL
BULK SHEAR...0-3KM/0-6KM...WILL BE STRONG AS WELL. THE QUESTION
FOR TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF MLCAPES TO ADVECT NORTHEAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. BELIEVE WE WILL BE ABLE TO OBTAIN AT LEAST
500 J/KG. AND WITH THESE VALUES COMBINED WITH STRONG
SHEAR...STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT
WE MAY SEE A DEVELOPING LINEAR FEATURE WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
FORCING. IF SO...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO OCCUR
WITH THIS GIVEN STRONG WIND FLOW ALOFT. ALSO...WITH SUBSTANTIAL
SHEAR...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULE AT AS ELEMENTS IN THE
LINE MAY TAKE ON MINI SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS. WET BULB ZERO
WILL BE IN THE FAVORABLE 8-9 KFT RANGE...AND WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ROTATING STORMS...LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE
ROTATION PRODUCES STRONG LIFT...DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITIES.
SPC HAS PLACED OUR SRN CWFA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND THIS LOOKS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN
AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS. HAVE UPDATED THE HWO TO REFLECT THE
INCREASE IN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY
GIVEN CLOUDS....PCPN...BUT DECENT LOW LEVEL WAA. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOWER 60S NORTH TO UPPER 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NAM IS A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING PCPN OFF TO THE EAST THIS
EVENING AND BOTH THE NMM AND ARW ARE SUGGESTING A WEAKENING LINE
OF CONVECTION PUSHING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. NOT
SURE HOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT TO SUPPORT
THUNDER...BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND HANG ON TO SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS
INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING THEM OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL THEN TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN
WILL ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY
SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THESE SHORT WAVES AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE MUCH FASTER ECMWF AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING POPS
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LEANED TOWARDS THE QUICKER EXITING ECMWF MODEL WHICH WAS CLOSER
TO YESTERDAYS GFS. THE GFS SHUNTS THE FRONT FARTHER IN KENTUCKY
THAN THE ECMWF OR CMC FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS CAUSES A SLOWER RETURN IN
THE PCPN OVER THE WEEKEND.
ENERGY DIGGING OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES PUSHES THE MOISTURE BACK
ACROSS REGION SUNDAY AND DEVELOPS CDFNT FRONT WHICH PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS
RETURN MOISTURE AND FNT...SO HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF TIMING.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS...IN THE 60S...
FRIDAY. EVEN COOLER AIR WORKS IN ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WITH THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP A FEW DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIG EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE
WILL COMBINE WITH A MOIST...AND AN INCREASING UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT THE SOUTHERN TAF
SITES OF KILN...KCVG AND KLUK WITH A LESSER THREAT FARTHER NORTH. AS
SUCH...HAVE PLACED VCTS AT KDAY...KCMH...AND KLCK. HOWEVER...WILL
MONITOR RADAR TRENDS SHOULD TEMPO TSRA BE NEEDED FOR THESE SITES.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND LOWER CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE MORE ROBUST SHOWERS AND
STRONGER STORMS.
AS THE DISTURBANCE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...OVERALL
DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. PCPN SHOULD END...AND DESPITE
A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST OVERNIGHT...WE SHOULD JUST SEE
SCATTERED CLOUDS. WIND FLOW MAY LIGHTEN ENOUGH AT KLUK FOR SOME
IFR VSBYS DUE TO RIVER FOG.
ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
FROM THE WEST. CAA CUMULUS CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING
ONWARD ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND. WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND
20 KNOTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST DURING THE MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
.OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/JGL
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HAYDU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1138 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE THE PARADE OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...WILL LOWER POPS FROM CAT TO LIKELY ACROSS ALL BUT SERN
/ERN COUNTIES AS MUCH OF THE PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH OR MOVING
TOWARD THE AREA IS LIGHT AND SPOTTY. MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
TRJECTORY APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA. HRRR COMING AROUND TO
THAT SOLUTION AS WELL. NO OTHER CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A PIECE OF JET ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE REGION AS OF 08Z. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE EAST
OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BY 12Z WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS AS WE GET THE
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE CURRENT SHORT WAVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WAIT
FOR THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT PIECE OF JET ENERGY THAT IS
DIGGING INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AS THIS JET
ENERGY MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS. LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP ENOUGH OVER THE
REGION TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. THE BETTER
CHANCES OF THUNDER WILL BE OVER THE LAKE WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY EXISTS.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY START AT SUNRISE FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH
THE SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE A CHALLENGE WITH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW LONG THE
SUNNY INTERVAL WILL BE. BELIEVE MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER
CHANCES OF THUNDER. THIS WAVE IS STRONGER THAN THE LAST COUPLE AND
WILL BRING A COOLER SHOT OF AIR WITH IT. AS THE COOLER AIR FLOWS
OVER THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY THERE WILL BE SHOWERS OVER NE OHIO
INTO NW PA. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER NW PA INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SEND ONE LAST PIECE
OF JET ENERGY AT THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD.
HOWEVER THE MAIN CONCERN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN ITS
STRENGTH AS IT MOVES UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HAVE CONTINUED THE
RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BUT BEST CHANCES WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
EACH PIECE OF JET ENERGY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WITH IT
THROUGH THE WEEK SO EXPECT HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER EACH DAY.
HIGHS BY FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WITH A COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE THICKEST IN
THE TYPICAL AREAS ACROSS NE OHIO...BUT WILL LIKELY EXTEND DOWN INTO
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED
DURING THE MORNING...WITH A GRADUALLY DECREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND WE MIX INTO THE DRIER AIR
ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MID 50S FOR ANOTHER DAY GIVEN
THE COOL NORTHERLY FLOW.
A PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AS THE NEW ENGLAND TROUGH DEPARTS WITH THE NEXT TROUGH ALREADY
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO START THE WEEK. A WARM FRONT
WILL TRY TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRATUS HAS BEEN EXPANDING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTH EAST OHIO
EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT SOME EXPANSION THROUGH ABOUT 13Z...THEN
GRADUALLY MIXING OUT THROUGH 15Z. MEANWHILE ANOTHER TROUGH WILL SWING
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN ON REGIONAL RADARS
MOVING INTO WESTERN OHIO. SHOWERS WILL REALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AFTER 17Z AND MAY LINGER IN THE FAR EAST INTO THIS EVENING. VFR
CEILINGS WILL DROP BACK TO MVFR IN SHOWERS WITH BRIEF IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BUT
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW ENOUGH THAT DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE
TERMINALS YET. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
20 KNOTS. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO VFR AT MOST LOCATIONS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE AT ERI ON WEDNESDAY THEN LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CLEVELAND EASTWARD ON
LAKE ERIE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TODAY AND WAVES WILL BRIEFLY DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW 3 FEET
FOR A WINDOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WIND WILL SHIFT
TO THE WEST WEST AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH
AND WAVES BUILDING DOWN THE LONG FETCH OF THE LAKE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED TO ALL OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY. AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW GALES BUT A FEW GUSTS
TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
LAKE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED ON THE EAST
END OF THE LAKE WITH WAVES SLOW TO RECEDE WITH A WEST/NORTHWEST
FETCH ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY
WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER LAKE ERIE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL RETURN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONGLY FORCED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. AN EMBEDDED S/WV WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL BE THE
IMPETUS TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS FEATURE WILL
INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL JET SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
RAP AND NAM SUGGESTING POSSIBLE 50 TO 60 KNOTS AT 850 MB. OVERALL
BULK SHEAR...0-3KM/0-6KM...WILL BE STRONG AS WELL. THE QUESTION
FOR TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF MLCAPES TO ADVECT NORTHEAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. BELIEVE WE WILL BE ABLE TO OBTAIN AT LEAST
500 J/KG. AND WITH THESE VALUES COMBINED WITH STRONG
SHEAR...STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT
WE MAY SEE A DEVELOPING LINEAR FEATURE WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
FORCING. IF SO...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO OCCUR
WITH THIS GIVEN STRONG WIND FLOW ALOFT. ALSO...WITH SUBSTANTIAL
SHEAR...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULE AT AS ELEMENTS IN THE
LINE MAY TAKE ON MINI SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS. WET BULB ZERO
WILL BE IN THE FAVORABLE 8-9 KFT RANGE...AND WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ROTATING STORMS...LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE
ROTATION PRODUCES STRONG LIFT...DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITIES.
SPC HAS PLACED OUR SRN CWFA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND THIS LOOKS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN
AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS. HAVE UPDATED THE HWO TO REFLECT THE
INCREASE IN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY
GIVEN CLOUDS....PCPN...BUT DECENT LOW LEVEL WAA. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOWER 60S NORTH TO UPPER 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NAM IS A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING PCPN OFF TO THE EAST THIS
EVENING AND BOTH THE NMM AND ARW ARE SUGGESTING A WEAKENING LINE
OF CONVECTION PUSHING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. NOT
SURE HOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT TO SUPPORT
THUNDER...BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND HANG ON TO SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS
INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING THEM OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL THEN TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN
WILL ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY
SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THESE SHORT WAVES AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE MUCH FASTER ECMWF AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING POPS
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LEANED TOWARDS THE QUICKER EXITING ECMWF MODEL WHICH WAS CLOSER
TO YESTERDAYS GFS. THE GFS SHUNTS THE FRONT FARTHER IN KENTUCKY
THAN THE ECMWF OR CMC FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS CAUSES A SLOWER RETURN IN
THE PCPN OVER THE WEEKEND.
ENERGY DIGGING OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES PUSHES THE MOISTURE BACK
ACROSS REGION SUNDAY AND DEVELOPS CDFNT FRONT WHICH PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS
RETURN MOISTURE AND FNT...SO HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF TIMING.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS...IN THE 60S...
FRIDAY. EVEN COOLER AIR WORKS IN ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WITH THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP A FEW DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEXT TROUGH IN A RAPID PROCESSION IS APPROACHING FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING.TIMING ON THE PCPN LOOKS A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN
YESTERDAY. MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED AT KLUK THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 12Z. THE NEXT CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS
IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS INDIANA AND SHOULD ENTER THE FORECAST
AREA AROUND 12Z AND REACH THE CENTRAL OHIO AREA AROUND 14Z.
SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA MUCH OF TODAY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BTWN 00 AND 03Z. BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDER WILL BE AT KCVG AND KLUK AND DECREASE NORTHWARD. A TEMPO
GROUP WAS USED IN THE KCVG AND KLUK TAFS TO REFLECT THE PERIOD OF
STRONGER PCPN. THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE SHOWERS
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. KEPT VCSH IN THE
TAFS INTO THE EVENING HOURS BECAUSE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER BAND OF PCPN PUSHING THROUGH THE TAFS BTWN
00Z AND 03Z. WHILE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
THUNDER... CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING. WITH THE RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY
LOOK FOR IFR FOG TO DEVELOP VCNTY OF KLUK AFT 06Z.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10KTS OR LESS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO
15 KT AND GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS AS THEY VEER MORE TO THE WEST BY
EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/JGL
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAYDU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
141 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE INCREASED MONDAY. DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST FLOW CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN LATE THURSDAY IN FAST ZONAL FLOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
SHOWERS PULLING OUT OF THE REGION...BUT HAVE THEM LINGERING OVER
THE SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH 10-11Z.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
MUCH MORE ACTIVE AUTUMN PATTERN...AS SPOKES OF ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED SPEED MAXIMUMS ROTATE AROUND THE BROAD 500 MB TROF OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO.
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WAS INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR THE CLUSTERS TO COME LATE. AS MENTIONED THIS
MORNING...HARD TO TIME THE INDIVIDUAL SHOWER/STORM CLUSTERS IN THIS
FAST FLOW. MAIN 500 MB VORT MAXIMUM ON 16Z RAP NOT PASSING INTO OUR
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES UNTIL AFTER 06Z TUESDAY. WILL HOLD LIKELY POPS
THERE MOST OF THE NIGHT. WITHOUT AN ORGANIZED SURFACE
FEATURE...LIKE A FRONT...HARD TO TIME REMOVE OF POP...BUT DROPPED
BELOW 15 PCT IN THE MID OHIO VALLEY AFTER 06Z...IN WAKE OF THAT 500
MB AXIS. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LOWER IN THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...SO WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD LOWER CLOUDS THAN SURFACE BASED
FOG FOR THE PREDAWN HOURS.
FAVORED THE FASTER 12Z GFS OVER THE SLOWER NAM FOR NEXT DISTURBANCE
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SO INCREASED POPS FASTER FROM WEST TO
EAST.
WILL FINE TUNE MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT HOUR...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY BIG
CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN THIS PERIOD. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN FAST W-NW FLOW THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROF/COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH EAST EARLY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY.
HAVE CONTINUED TREND FROM EARLIER GRIDS AS WET WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY SEASONABLE CONDITIONS BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING ON THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
BECOMING ORIENTED WEST TO EAST...FROM KENTUCKY TO VIRGINIA...UNDER
MOIST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK ITS WAY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG FRONT
JUST TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED PERIOD. DEPENDING
ON WHICH MODEL YOU PICK...BY SATURDAY...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND
THE TIMING THESE FEATURES WILL DIFFER. POPULATING WITH WPC TEMPS AND
POPS GUIDANCE WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS PULL OUT OF THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH WIND STAYING
UP...AND SHOULD PREVENT ANYTHING WORSE THAN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. THUNDER IS ALSO WINDING DOWN AS WELL
IN LEFTOVER RAIN. BKW COULD BE IN THE RAIN THROUGH 10Z OR SO UNTIL
THE NEXT WAVE TUESDAY.
EXPECTING MORE CONVECTION AND HAVE THIS MOVING INTO HTS AND PKB
AROUND 17Z. GIVEN A SIMILAR ATMOSPHERIC SET UP...USING THE
CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED TODAY AS A PRIMER FOR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF THE VISIBILITY. MOST SITES TO
REMAIN MVFR IN -TSRA. WILL CONSIDER TEMPOS FOR IFR IN THE NEXT
ISSUANCE AT 12Z.
GUIDANCE KEEPS CONDITIONS VFR OUT OF THE RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY NEED BRIEF MVFR LATE TONIGHT IN MIST OR
LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 10/07/14
UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS OR FOG OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. IFR IN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/KMC/KTB
NEAR TERM...KTB/26
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
150 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW WILL RESIDE NEAR JAMES BAY CANADA THROUGH THE
MIDWEEK PERIOD BEFORE DRIFTING GRADUALLY EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
POTENT SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS LOW WILL
IMPACT PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO PENNSYLVANIA FROM
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN A
WEAK CLIPPER LOW COULD TRACK ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT CENTRAL PA
OVERNIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PULLS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP IS MISSING THE
LWR SUSQ VALLEY TO THE NORTH...BUT THE HRRR SHOWS THAT A SECOND
BATCH OF RAIN CURRENTLY OVER ERN WV COULD HOLD TOGETHER AND BRING
SOME SHOWERS TO THE LWR SUSQ OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 50S IN THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY.
A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AND COULD
REMAIN A BIT GUSTY ON THE RIDGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER EARLY TUESDAY...A MORE POTENT
WAVE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD PA LATE IN THE DAY.
PTSUNNY SKIES EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHC
OF SHOWERS TOWARD EVENING...AS STRONG WAA OVERSPREADS THE REGION
AT NOSE OF ANOMALOUS LL JET. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY SHOULD BE AOA CLIMO
AVERAGES BASED ON ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS.
THE SECOND AND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE /MARKED BY STRONG LIFT
BENEATH THE THERMALLY-INDIRECT LEFT-EXIT REGION OF A STRONG 250
MB JET/ WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS WEATHER FEATURE AND ITS ACCOMPANYING SOUTHERLY
LLJ AND NOSE OF 1-1.25 INCH PWAT AIR WILL CREATE MORE WIDESPREAD
AND OCNLY HEAVIER SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY ACROSS THE WEST...AND
MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST AREA. SREF PROB
OF 0.50 INCH OF RAIN IS NOTABLY HIGHER WITH THIS WAVE...AND PWATS
ARE A BIT HIGHER AS WELL.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF SFC-BASED
CAPE AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE 50S LATE TUESDAY/TUES
NIGHT...WITH A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO 850 MB-
BASED LIFTED INDICES. THIS WILL ENHANCE PRECIP RATES AND BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED TSRA AS THE ENERGY LIFTS NE ACROSS
THE COMMONWEALTH.
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS ON THE RIDGES...AND IN LOCATIONS JUST NORTH
OF THE RIDGE GAPS COULD BE 10 KTS OR SO HIGHER THAN MONDAY NIGHT.
PRECIP BEGINS TO DIMINISH FROM SW TO NE AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE LAST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES LIFTING NEWD INTO NEW
ENGLAND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW PATTERN IN THE EAST TRANSITIONING TO AN
AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PCPN WILL BE DURING THE LATE
WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND TIMEFRAME ASSOCD WITH A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS ACRS THE MS RIVER THRU THE OH/TN
VLYS AND INTO THE MID ATLC STATES. EACH INDIVIDUAL MODEL SHOWS
SOME VARIANCE AS TO THE NORTH/SOUTH FRONTAL (DIS)PLACEMENT WITH
THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORTING THE MIDDLE TO SRN SIDE OF
THE SPREAD. WILL CONTINUE TO EMPLOY A CONSENSUS BLEND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WHICH PLACES THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SRN TIER ON
THR NGT INTO FRI. COOL HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING FROM THE NRN PLAINS
ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL BATTLE
THE WAVY FRONTAL ZONE TO THE SOUTH AND TRY TO KEEP PCPN SUPPRESSED
TO THE SOUTH OF PA THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE NON NCEP DATA HAS
OTHER IDEAS IN STORE ESPECIALLY FOR SERN PA. OVERALL IT WILL BE
A DIFFICULT FCST UNTIL THE BOUNDARY PLACEMENT CAN BE RESOLVED.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE COUNTRY SHOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL OVER A BROADER AREA NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BULK OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS NOW. LIKE
MONDAY...MUCH OF TODAY WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS FOR TUE NIGHT.
06Z TAFS SENT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF CWA EARLY THIS EVENING...EXCEPT
ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER AND LOWER SUSQ. MAIN PRECIP AREA REMAINS
DRIVEN BY FORCING FROM LOW LEVEL JET CURRENTLY SLIDING NORTHWARD
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...SO TREND WILL BE FOR THIS AREA TO LIFT NE
OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ANOTHER WAVE LOOKS TO BE SNEAKING TOWARD
CENTRAL PA FROM THE SW...AND WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN OF LIGHT
RAIN TO THE REGION BETWEEN 04-08Z.
IN GENERAL...CONDITIONS VFR FOR MAJORITY OF CENTRAL PA. BUT MVFR
AREA WILL EXPAND FROM WESTERN PA INTO NORTHERN MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS TONIGHT...AND POSS BRIEFLY INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW-SE AND LIGHTEN AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...WHILE LLWS CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS 850MB
FLOW LESSENS FROM 40 KTS TO CLOSER TO 30 KTS.
EXPECT SOME CLEARING AGAIN TUES MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST LATE TUE/EARLY WED WHICH WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER SHRA/SCT TSRA.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...MVFR CIGS/SCT SHRA PSBL NW WED IMPROVING CONDITIONS WED
INTO THURS MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.
FRI...BRIEF CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS IN AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS.
SAT...VFR WITH A SCT SHOWER POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/EVANEGO
NEAR TERM...EVANEGO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/EVANEGO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1028 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS TENNESSEE VALLEY TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LINGER JUST TO OUR
NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH AND
WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1015 PM UPDATE...NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE NC/SC
BORDER. THE LAST OF THE DIURNAL CONVECTION UPSTREAM ALONG THE FRONT
OVER NRN AL/GA HAS NEARLY ALL CEASED AND IT NO LONGER APPEARS THERE
IS ANY THREAT OF A CELL PROPAGATING INTO OUR NE GA ZONES. DROPPED
POPS TO VERY NEAR ZERO ACRS THE CWFA THRU THU MRNG. LATEST MODEL
RUNS MAY HAVE PICKED UP ON THE STALLING OF THE FRONT AND TRENDED A
BIT WARMER FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT. SHORT-TERM CONSENSUS PRODUCT ALSO
SUGGESTED THE HRLY TEMPS WERE A COUPLE DEGREES TOO COOL. THUS
REVISED A BIT BASED ON THE NEWER GUIDANCE.
CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR STANDING WAVE CIRRUS TO FORM
IN THE LEE OF THE APPS. DEEP NW FLOW...A MTN TOP INVERSION SEEN ON
KRNK RAOB...AND SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION AS SEEN ON WV IMAGERY. WRF
SIMULATED IR IMAGES FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS HIGH CLOUD FRACTION
FIELDS FROM 23Z HRRR BOTH SEEM TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS. SO I
INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE NC MTN/FOOTHILLS ZONES LATE TONIGHT.
AS OF 215 PM...FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM. AT THE SURFACE...THE WEAK FRONT NOW EXITING THE AREA TO
THE SE WILL CONTINUE ON TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE QUICKLY SE AND SETTLE OVER THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE TO THE COAST BY THU AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE
HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST ON THU...WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP.
GFS MODEL TIME HEIGHT SHOWS MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SO A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL
OCCUR. MODELS SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF RESPONSE OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS
LATE IN THE DAY APPARENTLY DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW AND AN APPROACHING
UPPER IMPULSE. WILL ALLOW POPS TO INCREASE INTO THE SLIGHT CHC RANGE
OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR PERHAPS A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS.
EVEN THOUGH TEMPS WILL COOL OVERNIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE CLIMO PER A
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE. FORECAST HIGHS ON THU WILL LIKEWISE BE
ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE AVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO EARLIER THOUGHTS ABOUT
THE SHORT RANGE. THE MODELS STILL DEPICT A CONFLUENT ZONE ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC DOWNSTREAM OF A SPLIT IN THE FLOW OVER THE
PLAINS. THE RESULTING ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EAST WILL ESSENTIALLY TRAP
A SURFACE BOUNDARY STRUNG OUT WEST TO EAST ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EJECT FROM THE TROF
TO THE WEST AND MOVE PAST MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. ALTHO THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE ACTUAL FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL...IT
SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO KEEP A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT
OF POP ACROSS THE REGION STARTING FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS PERHAPS
A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING THE BOUNDARY DOWN AS A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE NW PIEDMONT LATE SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THIS POINT. PRECIP CHANCES CLIMB INTO THE CHANCE RANGE FOR
ALL BUT THE LAKELANDS BY THE END OF SATURDAY...AS THE MAIN SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AS THE SPLIT FLOW BREAKS DOWN. HAVE
KEPT PRECIP PROBABILITY BELOW THE LIKELY RANGE FOR THE TIME
BEING...BUT THE TREND IS UPWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER BASED ON
THE NEW GUIDANCE. TEMPS WERE KEPT ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
WITH A DEEP TROF THAT IS EXPECTED TO DIG ACRS THE CENTER OF THE
CONUS SUN-MON...THEN TRACK ACRS THE EASTERN STATES TUE-WED. THE
GFS/GEFS AND CMC HAVE A LESS DEEP/MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE THAN
THE ECMWF/ECENS/UKMET SOLNS...WITH THE OP ECMWF THE DEEPEST/SLOWEST
OF THE GUIDANCE. THE LATEST WPC PREFERENCE IS FOR A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS...WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF. THIS RESULTS
IN QUITE A DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE CWFA AS IT BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE WILL TRACK
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES...AND PUSH A COLD FRONT
ACRS THE CWFA. THE EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT THERE SHUD
BE NO WEDGE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WITH SUCH A DEEP
SYSTEM...GULF MOISTURE AND INSTBY SHUD BE PRESENT. THERE WILL ALSO
BE PLENTY OF SHEAR...WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR 50-60 KM OVERLAPPING
400-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. BLENDING IN THE HPCGUIDE POP...I HAVE HIGH-END
CHC TO LIKELY POPS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...TAPERING OFF TUESDAY
NIGHT. IF THE ECWMF VERIFIES...THERE IS A DECENT CHC OF A LINEAR
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. CONFIDENCE IS STILL
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.
AS THE UPPER TROF QUICKLY LIFTS NE OUT OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY
OVERNIGHT...SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE S...BUT ITS ONLY EFFECT WILL BE
TO CAUSE SOME VARIABILITY IN WINDS. THEY SHOULD PREVAIL NWLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE VEERING AROUND TO THE NE FOR THE EARLY AM...AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY AFTER SUNRISE. TOO DRY FOR LOW CIGS/FOG THIS
PERIOD...AND EVEN DIURNAL CU LOOK UNLIKELY TOMORROW.
ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY AS AT KCLT. VFR AT THE TAF TERMINALS. CIRRUS
WILL STREAM OVERHEAD TONIGHT IN BRISK NW UPPER FLOW. EXCEPT AT
KAVL...WINDS WILL MAINLY BE WSW TO WNW VERY EARLY IN THE PERIOD
BEFORE BEGINNING A GRADUAL VEERING FROM NW TO NE...EVENTUALLY SE
AFTER SUNRISE AND THEN S TO SSW FOR THE AFTN. KAVL IS LIKELY TO
QUICKLY FLIP FROM NW TO SE THU MRNG. FOG LIKELY IN THE DEEP MTN
VALLEYS BUT KAVL WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR THAT.
OUTLOOK...ASIDE FOR POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/CIGS...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL GENERALLY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
BACKDOOR FRONT AND DEVELOPING COLD AIR DAMMING ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY
BRING RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-02Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
938 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
.UPDATE...
LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE FORECAST LOWS IN A
COUPLE OF SPOTS...THUS DECREASED THEM SLIGHTLY ALTHOUGH DO NOT
EXPECT THEM TO DROP MUCH MORE WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION. ALSO ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR TONIGHT WITH SMALL
TEMPERATURE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND PATCHY FOG ALREADY DEVELOPING.
JCL
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT MAINLY FROM NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL INTO MUCH OF
WEST TN. ALREADY SEEING DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MO THAT ARE MOVING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHEAST AR
AND THE MO BOOTHEEL. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA...MAINLY ALONG
AND TO THE NORTH A FRONTAL SYSTEM LOCATED FROM JUST SOUTH OF
JONESBORO AR TO JUST NORTH OF SAVANNAH TN. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. MADE A FEW OTHER
MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES...SKY COVER...WIND AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS FOR TONIGHT. UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SENT. ALSO UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO MENTION THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
JCL
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014/
/ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
A CLUSTER OF STORMS IN NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI SHOWED A WEAKENING
TREND EARLY...BUT INTENSIFIED SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLUSTER
COULD PRODUCE SOME SEVERE WEATHER AS IT PROGRESSES TO THE EAST.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. THIS WILL BE NORTH OF A STALLED
FRONT DRAPED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES.
THE FRONT WILL WOBBLE TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...WITH SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION REMAINING IN THE FORECAST. IT WILL NOT FEEL
MUCH LIKE FALL...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY...
AND THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH. COOLER AIR
WILL BE FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THIS WILL NUDGE INTO MUCH
WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
IN THE END...A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT/BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE FRONT TO END THE PERIOD...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
POOLING AROUND THE FRONT. SOME OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE PROVIDED BY
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SIMON FROM THE PACIFIC. THERE WILL BE
LOTS OF CLOUDS...AND LIKELY CHANCES FOR RAIN.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SHAPING UP FOR THE LAST PART OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN AND SOME SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.
IN THIS SET UP...DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION
AND WILL PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AS A STRENGTHENING
UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A
QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...AND WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK
AS A SURFACE LOWS DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE THE DEEPENING H500 TROUGH.
THE SURFACE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AND TRACK ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW RAPIDLY BEHIND IT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM BEGINS TO TILT NEGATIVELY. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND WINDS ENERGY...THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AS WELL AS
SOME FLASH FLOODING.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE MENTIONED THAT THERE IS SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCE IN THE LONG TERM MODELS THAT COULD EFFECT THE EXACT
LOCATION AND MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER.
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY MID WEEK TO ROUND OUT THE
END OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF SET
SHRAS/TSRAS CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER NE MS WILL PUSH EAST INTO
ALABAMA SHORTLY. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SHRAS DEVELOPING ACROSS NW
TN OVERNIGHT THUS WILL MENTION VCSH AT KMKL. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY
OCCUR AT KTUP REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR BETWEEN 10-13Z.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME
SSW AT 8-10 KTS BY 15Z.
KRM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
714 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT MAINLY FROM NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL INTO MUCH OF
WEST TN. ALREADY SEEING DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MO THAT ARE MOVING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHEAST AR
AND THE MO BOOTHEEL. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA...MAINLY ALONG
AND TO THE NORTH A FRONTAL SYSTEM LOCATED FROM JUST SOUTH OF
JONESBORO AR TO JUST NORTH OF SAVANNAH TN. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. MADE A FEW OTHER
MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES...SKY COVER...WIND AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS FOR TONIGHT. UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SENT. ALSO UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO MENTION THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
JCL
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014/
/ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
A CLUSTER OF STORMS IN NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI SHOWED A WEAKENING
TREND EARLY...BUT INTENSIFIED SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLUSTER
COULD PRODUCE SOME SEVERE WEATHER AS IT PROGRESSES TO THE EAST.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. THIS WILL BE NORTH OF A STALLED
FRONT DRAPED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES.
THE FRONT WILL WOBBLE TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...WITH SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION REMAINING IN THE FORECAST. IT WILL NOT FEEL
MUCH LIKE FALL...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY...
AND THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH. COOLER AIR
WILL BE FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THIS WILL NUDGE INTO MUCH
WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
IN THE END...A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT/BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE FRONT TO END THE PERIOD...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
POOLING AROUND THE FRONT. SOME OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE PROVIDED BY
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SIMON FROM THE PACIFIC. THERE WILL BE
LOTS OF CLOUDS...AND LIKELY CHANCES FOR RAIN.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SHAPING UP FOR THE LAST PART OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN AND SOME SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.
IN THIS SET UP...DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION
AND WILL PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AS A STRENGTHENING
UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A
QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...AND WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK
AS A SURFACE LOWS DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE THE DEEPENING H500 TROUGH.
THE SURFACE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AND TRACK ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW RAPIDLY BEHIND IT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM BEGINS TO TILT NEGATIVELY. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND WINDS ENERGY...THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AS WELL AS
SOME FLASH FLOODING.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE MENTIONED THAT THERE IS SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCE IN THE LONG TERM MODELS THAT COULD EFFECT THE EXACT
LOCATION AND MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER.
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY MID WEEK TO ROUND OUT THE
END OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF SET
SHRAS/TSRAS CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER NE MS WILL PUSH EAST INTO
ALABAMA SHORTLY. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SHRAS DEVELOPING ACROSS NW
TN OVERNIGHT THUS WILL MENTION VCSH AT KMKL. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY
OCCUR AT KTUP REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR BETWEEN 10-13Z.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME
SSW AT 8-10 KTS BY 15Z.
KRM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1154 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FPR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
UPDATE...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL
A LITTLE SOON THAN EXPECTED. UPDATED TO SPEED UP THE TIMING ON LIKELY
POPS FOR SHOWERS ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME LESS UNSTABLE...THUS REMOVED
THE MENTION OF SEVERE FROM THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
TONIGHT BUT DID KEEP IN THE POSSIBLY OF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
JCL
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
.UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABOUT TO PUSH EASTWARD OUT OF NORTHEAST MS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. OTHERWISE JUST A FEW
SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON RADAR ACROSS THE REGION. THE HRRR MODEL
INDICATES SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING BACK INTO
THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. UPDATED THE GRIDS AND ZONES TO ADJUST THE POPS TO
CHANCE CATEGORY BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THEN WENT LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MENTIONED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
THAT A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHED WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST AR INTO
NORTHWEST TN AND WAS LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
THE FRONT CAN BE SEEN MAINLY IN THE SURFACE DEW POINT ANALYSIS
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT
TO LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S TO THE SOUTH. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN
SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES
BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/G. INCREASED THE LOW TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS...ALSO WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP SOME FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT.
UPDATED ZONES...GRIDS...AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAVE ALREADY
BEEN SENT.
JCL
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
SYNOPSIS... FRESH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 70S WITH A SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S CAPES WERE RISING INTO THE
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. USING THE HRRR OUTPUT SEE MORE SCATTERED
RAINFALL WITH PERHAPS A STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL. GFS/NAM HAVE
SUGGESTED MORE ROBUST STORMS TO DEVELOP. THERE IS LITTLE OR NO
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND THE OCTOBER DIABATIC CONTRIBUTION IS NOT
STRONG. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS
WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. SCATTERED RAINFALL IS THEN POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT.
AS THE WARM SECTOR MOVES INTO OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY WE CATCH A
BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THOUGHT MONDAY)...
ON THURSDAY THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE RAINFALL BECOMES ENHANCED
PROXIMAL TO A SLOW MOVING WEST TO EAST COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE THE REGION FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL IN
QUESTION...HOWEVER WHEN THE FRONT DOES MOVE IN TEMPERATURES AND
CONSISTENT RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY. FOR NOW THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
CONSERVATIVE WAITING FOR FUTURES MODEL RUNS BEFORE PLACING MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTCOME.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THIS FRONT THEN BEGINS TO MOVE BACK
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BELLES
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF SET
LIGHT SHOWERS SHRA/TSRA BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ARKANSAS. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AND SWEEP EAST AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY VFR...WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS/VIS IN
HEAVIER STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL WANE AFTER SUNRISE WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS AND A SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR DECK. BEST PERIOD THIS
CYCLE APPEARS TO BE THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY FLIRT WITH THE SITES LATE.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
342 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
IMPULSES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO TONIGHT. THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND INTO
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA WEDNESDAY...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING A
RETURN TO DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY MORNING...THE HIGH WILL BE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM MDT TUESDAY...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH AXIS
EXTENDING SWEETHEART FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. EMBEDDED WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THESE WILL CREATE ENOUGH DYNAMIC
LIFT TO COMBINE WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO
REGENERATE DEEPER CONVICTION.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE TROF LIFTS NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN SHORT LINE
SEGMENTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUST WINDS WITH 85H WINDS
AROUND 40KTS.
SHAPED POPS TOWARDS THE HRRR AND RNKWRF ARW FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. SEEMS LIKE THE MESOSCALE SOLUTIONS ARE CAPTURING THE 85MB
JET MAX OF 50KNOT AHEAD OF THE STRONG MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT
ROTATES NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA
TONIGHT. ALSO...THE SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION WHICH IS DEVELOPING
WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTING INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY.
NOT CONCERN OVER ANY FLOODING ISSUE AT THIS TIME...UNLESS THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO FOCUS THE HEAVY RAINFALL FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME DUE TO
THE FAST STORM MOVEMENT...MEAN CLOUD LAYER WINDS OF 45 KTS. IN THIS
HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOCUS SHOULD BE ON THE WIND AND NOT THE
RAIN. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST...THEN TAPER OFF AFTER 06Z
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT CLOSE
TO THE ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING AN END TO LEFTOVER
SHOWERS AND DIMINISH CLOUD COVER HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF A RETREATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND SUNSHINE WILL
WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY MORNING. WILL BE STAYING CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV NUMBERS
FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BY FRIDAY MORNING THE HIGH WILL BE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL
EXTEND FROM WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...
LONG WAVE 500 TROF DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. ECMWF WAS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS TROF THAN OTHER
SOLUTIONS...CLOSING OFF A LOW IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. WILL BE
LEANING TOWARD MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION...THOUGH WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH SATURDAY. TROFFING
REMAINS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A BUILDING
WEDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. BETTER VORTICITY ADVECTION AND UPPER
SUPPORT ARRIVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AND DEEPER LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
850 MB TEMPERATURES WIND UP WARMER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT THAT MAY
NOT MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE SINCE THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE WEDGED IN
AT THE SURFACE AND CLOUDY. WILL STAY AOB GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS LONG AS WEDGE IS GONE ON
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 138 PM EDT TUESDAY...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL BE
WAVES OF CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OH/TN
VALLEYS...AND TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE OHIO/TN VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE TO STEER UPPER DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE AREA INTO TONIGHT WITH MAIN FRONT NOT MOVING INTO THE
REGION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REGENERATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREAT IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF
ROANOKE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE
GREATEST.
CLOUD BASES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND LOW END VFR TO MVFR IN THE MOUNTAINS.
ISOLATED POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR CONVECTION.
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST... 10-15KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. STRONGER
SHOWERS AND ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD MIX DOWN STRONGER 30
TO 40KT GUSTS. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS (EXCLUDING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN SOME OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEY
SPOTS...SUCH AS AT/NEAR KLWB...KBCB) FOR WEDNESDAY.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEATHER
DISTURBANCE IMPINGES ON THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATER THURSDAY OR
ON FRIDAY. SUB VFR LIKELY TOWARD SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH
AND SFC HIGH MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES SETTING UP A WEDGE
SCENARIO.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/PM
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...KK/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
138 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. IMPULSES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND INTO THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING A RETURN TO
DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS 1208 PM EDT TUESDAY...
MODIFIED POPS FOR AREA OF CONVECTION LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF
TENNESSEE. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES WITH THE LATEST OBS AND RAISED
HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES IN THE EAST WHERE THERE IS
ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE. PNS SENT OUT WITH RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS. MORE CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON...
AS OF 952 AM EDT TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF WILL
PROVIDED LIFT TO CREATE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN SHORT LINE
SEGMENTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS WITH 85H WINDS
AROUND 40KTS. HOWEVER...WITH THE CLOUDS AND MORNING SHOWERS...
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AT BEST..AND DESPITE THE INCREASING
SHEAR...BETTER SUPPORT FOR STRONG STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
DISPLAYED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA. SPC IN THEIR DAY 1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK DECIDED TO PLACE A SLIGHT CHANCE (15% OF
SEVERE WEATHER) TO OUR WEST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN
OHIO AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA. THE MAIN THREAT IS WIND POTENTIAL.
SHAPED POPS THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS A BLEND OF
THE HRRR AND RNK WRFARW. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES TOWARDS CURRENT
OBS AND MODEL TRENDS FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
HOLD WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS...BECAUSE TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE LARGELY INFLUENCED BY EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND
TIMING/ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION. MORE CHANGES LATER...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...
BROAD QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ENERGY WAS PROVIDING DYNAMIC LIFT WITH
GREATEST UPPER LEVEL WIND DIVERGENCE OCCURRING NEAR THE BASE OF
THE TROF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS AREA OF FOCUSED LIFT WAS
INTERACTING WITH PLUME OF WARM/MOIST AIR FLOWING NORTH FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO...BOUNDARY LAYER CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG NOSING
INTO TENNESSEE AND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. THIS AREA OF JUXTAPOSED
THERMODYNAMIC AND DYNAMIC FORCING IS THE BREEDING GROUND FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAVE BEEN MOVING
DOWNSTREAM INTO OUR FORECAST AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
UNTIL THE TROF LIFTS NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.
THUS FAR...HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST STORMS HAVE RESIDED WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...AND MORE SO...AS YOU HEAD INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS.
THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TODAY AS THE BETTER LIFT AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE REMAINS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
MESOSCALE MODELS CONFINE MOST OF THE QPF TO OUR WESTERN CWA...WITH
UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE GREENBRIER AND NEW
RIVER VALLEYS...AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NW NC. AT SOME
POINT...PROBABLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY...ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS TO SURVIVE THE TRIP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
FORECAST TODAY WILL HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
(POP) AND ELEVATED QPF WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH INCREASING
POP AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME RAINFALL TO AREAS EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIMILAR TO LAST
EVENING...SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN SHORT LINE SEGMENTS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. 85H WINDS ARE RUNNING ABOUT
40KTS...AND MOMENTUM MIX DOWN WILL PRODUCE SOME HEALTHY WIND
GUSTS AT THE SURFACE. FORECAST REFLECTS GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THAT SAID...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AT BEST..AND DESPITE
THE INCREASING SHEAR...BETTER SUPPORT FOR STRONG STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DISPLAYED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA.
OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...ALTHOUGH RESPECTABLE IN THE
WESTERN CWA... SHOULD FALL SHORT OF ANY HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS.
UNLESS THE SHOWERS/STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO FOCUS THE HEAVY RAINFALL FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME DUE
TO THE FAST STORM MOVEMENT...MEAN CLOUD LAYER WINDS OF 45 KTS. IN
THIS HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOCUS SHOULD BE ON THE WIND AND
NOT THE RAIN.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE LARGELY INFLUENCED BY EXTENT OF CLOUD
COVER AND TIMING/ARRIVAL OF UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS.
COOLEST READINGS IN UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS...RANGING UP TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WHERE BETTER INSOLATION AND A LATER ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION
THREAT IS EXPECTED. READINGS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
MILD...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S PROVIDING A FLOOR TO THE
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND SUNRISE...TO WESTERLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL BRING AN END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY LEFT OVER FROM EARLY MORNING...
AS WELL AS HELP CLOUD COVER DIMINISH HEADING INTO LUNCHTIME. THE
COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE WINDS...RETREATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL HELP PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO THEIR
WARMEST IN SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE PIEDMONT CLIMBS INTO THE UPPER
70S/LOW 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO PUSH
OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MAKE FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS SINKING
GENERALLY INTO THE 40S. FACTOR IN MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS...AND
BELIEVE PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT.
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY AS OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH FROM
THE WEST...RIDING A FRONT THAT IS SINKING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BEGINNING
AROUND SUNSET...WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH WINDS RETURNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES AWAY...GULF MOISTURE WILL MAKE ITS RETURN...HELPING
TO MODERATE THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS BY HOLDING THEM IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW
50S WEST...AND THE UPPER 50S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT TUESDAY...
NEXT SIGNIFICANT TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
COMES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HELPING TO
DRAW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AND INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE FRONT IN ADVANCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HAVE LOWERED
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE WEDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 138 PM EDT TUESDAY...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL BE
WAVES OF CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OH/TN
VALLEYS...AND TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE OHIO/TN VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE TO STEER UPPER DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE AREA INTO TONIGHT WITH MAIN FRONT NOT MOVING INTO THE
REGION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REGENERATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREAT IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF
ROANOKE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE
GREATEST.
CLOUD BASES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND LOW END VFR TO MVFR IN THE MOUNTAINS.
ISOLATED POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR CONVECTION.
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST... 10-15KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. STRONGER
SHOWERS AND ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD MIX DOWN STRONGER 30
TO 40KT GUSTS. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS (EXCLUDING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN SOME OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEY
SPOTS...SUCH AS AT/NEAR KLWB...KBCB) FOR WEDNESDAY.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEATHER
DISTURBANCE IMPINGES ON THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATER THURSDAY OR
ON FRIDAY. SUB VFR LIKELY TOWARD SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH
AND SFC HIGH MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES SETTING UP A WEDGE
SCENARIO.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...KK/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1209 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. IMPULSES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND INTO THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING A RETURN TO
DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS 1208 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MODIFIED POPS FOR AREA OF CONVECTION LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF
TENNESSEE. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES WITH THE LATEST OBS AND RAISED
HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES IN THE EAST WHERE THERE IS
ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE. PNS SENT OUT WITH RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS. MORE CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON...
AS OF 952 AM EDT TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF WILL
PROVIDED LIFT TO CREATE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN SHORT LINE
SEGMENTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS WITH 85H WINDS
AROUND 40KTS. HOWEVER...WITH THE CLOUDS AND MORNING SHOWERS...
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AT BEST..AND DESPITE THE INCREASING
SHEAR...BETTER SUPPORT FOR STRONG STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
DISPLAYED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA. SPC IN THEIR DAY 1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK DECIDED TO PLACE A SLIGHT CHANCE (15% OF
SEVERE WEATHER) TO OUR WEST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN
OHIO AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA. THE MAIN THREAT IS WIND POTENTIAL.
SHAPED POPS THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS A BLEND OF
THE HRRR AND RNK WRFARW. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES TOWARDS CURRENT
OBS AND MODEL TRENDS FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
HOLD WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS...BECAUSE TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE LARGELY INFLUENCED BY EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND
TIMING/ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION. MORE CHANGES LATER...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...
BROAD QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ENERGY WAS PROVIDING DYNAMIC LIFT WITH
GREATEST UPPER LEVEL WIND DIVERGENCE OCCURRING NEAR THE BASE OF
THE TROF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS AREA OF FOCUSED LIFT WAS
INTERACTING WITH PLUME OF WARM/MOIST AIR FLOWING NORTH FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO...BOUNDARY LAYER CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG NOSING
INTO TENNESSEE AND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. THIS AREA OF JUXTAPOSED
THERMODYNAMIC AND DYNAMIC FORCING IS THE BREEDING GROUND FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAVE BEEN MOVING
DOWNSTREAM INTO OUR FORECAST AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
UNTIL THE TROF LIFTS NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.
THUS FAR...HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST STORMS HAVE RESIDED WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...AND MORE SO...AS YOU HEAD INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS.
THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TODAY AS THE BETTER LIFT AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE REMAINS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
MESOSCALE MODELS CONFINE MOST OF THE QPF TO OUR WESTERN CWA...WITH
UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE GREENBRIER AND NEW
RIVER VALLEYS...AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NW NC. AT SOME
POINT...PROBABLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY...ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS TO SURVIVE THE TRIP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
FORECAST TODAY WILL HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
(POP) AND ELEVATED QPF WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH INCREASING
POP AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME RAINFALL TO AREAS EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIMILAR TO LAST
EVENING...SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN SHORT LINE SEGMENTS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. 85H WINDS ARE RUNNING ABOUT
40KTS...AND MOMENTUM MIX DOWN WILL PRODUCE SOME HEALTHY WIND
GUSTS AT THE SURFACE. FORECAST REFLECTS GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THAT SAID...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AT BEST..AND DESPITE
THE INCREASING SHEAR...BETTER SUPPORT FOR STRONG STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DISPLAYED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA.
OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...ALTHOUGH RESPECTABLE IN THE
WESTERN CWA... SHOULD FALL SHORT OF ANY HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS.
UNLESS THE SHOWERS/STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO FOCUS THE HEAVY RAINFALL FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME DUE
TO THE FAST STORM MOVEMENT...MEAN CLOUD LAYER WINDS OF 45 KTS. IN
THIS HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOCUS SHOULD BE ON THE WIND AND
NOT THE RAIN.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE LARGELY INFLUENCED BY EXTENT OF CLOUD
COVER AND TIMING/ARRIVAL OF UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS.
COOLEST READINGS IN UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS...RANGING UP TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WHERE BETTER INSOLATION AND A LATER ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION
THREAT IS EXPECTED. READINGS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
MILD...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S PROVIDING A FLOOR TO THE
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND SUNRISE...TO WESTERLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL BRING AN END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY LEFT OVER FROM EARLY MORNING...
AS WELL AS HELP CLOUD COVER DIMINISH HEADING INTO LUNCHTIME. THE
COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE WINDS...RETREATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL HELP PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO THEIR
WARMEST IN SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE PIEDMONT CLIMBS INTO THE UPPER
70S/LOW 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO PUSH
OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MAKE FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS SINKING
GENERALLY INTO THE 40S. FACTOR IN MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS...AND
BELIEVE PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT.
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY AS OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH FROM
THE WEST...RIDING A FRONT THAT IS SINKING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BEGINNING
AROUND SUNSET...WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH WINDS RETURNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES AWAY...GULF MOISTURE WILL MAKE ITS RETURN...HELPING
TO MODERATE THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS BY HOLDING THEM IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW
50S WEST...AND THE UPPER 50S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT TUESDAY...
NEXT SIGNIFICANT TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
COMES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HELPING TO
DRAW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AND INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE FRONT IN ADVANCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HAVE LOWERED
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE WEDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE WAVES OF SHOWERS THAT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS...MOVING EAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO/TN VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE TO STEER
UPPER DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MAIN
FRONT NOT MOVING INTO THE REGION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. BREAK IN THE
ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR THIS MORNING MORNING...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE
REGENERATION OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN THREAT IN THE MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF ROANOKE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST. CLOUD BASES
DURING THE DAY TODAY SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AND LOW END VFR TO HIGH END MVFR IN THE MOUNTAINS. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO HAVE IFR GIVEN GOOD SW FLOW KEEPING CIGS/VSBYS MIXED.
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...
10-15KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. STRONGER SHOWERS AND
ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MIX DOWN STRONGER 30 TO 40KT GUSTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS (EXCLUDING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN SOME OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN
VALLEY SPOTS...SUCH AS AT/NEAR KLWB...KBCB) FOR WEDNESDAY INTO AT
LEAST THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE IMPINGES ON THE
AREA FROM THE WEST LATER THURSDAY OR ON FRIDAY. SUB VFR LIKELY
TOWARD SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND SFC HIGH MOVING EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES SETTING UP A WEDGE SCENARIO.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
952 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. IMPULSES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND INTO THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING A RETURN TO
DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 952 AM EDT TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF WILL
PROVIDED LIFT TO CREATE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN SHORT LINE
SEGMENTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS WITH 85H WINDS
AROUND 40KTS. HOWEVER...WITH THE CLOUDS AND MORNING SHOWERS...
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AT BEST..AND DESPITE THE INCREASING
SHEAR...BETTER SUPPORT FOR STRONG STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
DISPLAYED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA. SPC IN THEIR DAY 1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK DECIDED TO PLACE A SLIGHT CHANCE (15% OF
SEVERE WEATHER) TO OUR WEST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN
OHIO AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA. THE MAIN THREAT IS WIND POTENTIAL.
SHAPED POPS THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS A BLEND OF
THE HRRR AND RNK WRFARW. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES TOWARDS CURRENT
OBS AND MODEL TRENDS FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
HOLD WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS...BECAUSE TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE LARGELY INFLUENCED BY EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND
TIMING/ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION. MORE CHANGES LATER...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...
BROAD QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ENERGY WAS PROVIDING DYNAMIC LIFT WITH
GREATEST UPPER LEVEL WIND DIVERGENCE OCCURRING NEAR THE BASE OF
THE TROF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS AREA OF FOCUSED LIFT WAS
INTERACTING WITH PLUME OF WARM/MOIST AIR FLOWING NORTH FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO...BOUNDARY LAYER CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG NOSING
INTO TENNESSEE AND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. THIS AREA OF JUXTAPOSED
THERMODYNAMIC AND DYNAMIC FORCING IS THE BREEDING GROUND FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAVE BEEN MOVING
DOWNSTREAM INTO OUR FORECAST AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
UNTIL THE TROF LIFTS NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.
THUS FAR...HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST STORMS HAVE RESIDED WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...AND MORE SO...AS YOU HEAD INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS.
THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TODAY AS THE BETTER LIFT AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE REMAINS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
MESOSCALE MODELS CONFINE MOST OF THE QPF TO OUR WESTERN CWA...WITH
UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE GREENBRIER AND NEW
RIVER VALLEYS...AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NW NC. AT SOME
POINT...PROBABLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY...ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS TO SURVIVE THE TRIP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
FORECAST TODAY WILL HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
(POP) AND ELEVATED QPF WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH INCREASING
POP AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME RAINFALL TO AREAS EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIMILAR TO LAST
EVENING...SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN SHORT LINE SEGMENTS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. 85H WINDS ARE RUNNING ABOUT
40KTS...AND MOMENTUM MIX DOWN WILL PRODUCE SOME HEALTHY WIND
GUSTS AT THE SURFACE. FORECAST REFLECTS GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THAT SAID...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AT BEST..AND DESPITE
THE INCREASING SHEAR...BETTER SUPPORT FOR STRONG STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DISPLAYED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA.
OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...ALTHOUGH RESPECTABLE IN THE
WESTERN CWA... SHOULD FALL SHORT OF ANY HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS.
UNLESS THE SHOWERS/STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO FOCUS THE HEAVY RAINFALL FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME DUE
TO THE FAST STORM MOVEMENT...MEAN CLOUD LAYER WINDS OF 45 KTS. IN
THIS HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOCUS SHOULD BE ON THE WIND AND
NOT THE RAIN.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE LARGELY INFLUENCED BY EXTENT OF CLOUD
COVER AND TIMING/ARRIVAL OF UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS.
COOLEST READINGS IN UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS...RANGING UP TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WHERE BETTER INSOLATION AND A LATER ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION
THREAT IS EXPECTED. READINGS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
MILD...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S PROVIDING A FLOOR TO THE
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND SUNRISE...TO WESTERLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL BRING AN END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY LEFT OVER FROM EARLY MORNING...
AS WELL AS HELP CLOUD COVER DIMINISH HEADING INTO LUNCHTIME. THE
COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE WINDS...RETREATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL HELP PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO THEIR
WARMEST IN SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE PIEDMONT CLIMBS INTO THE UPPER
70S/LOW 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO PUSH
OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MAKE FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS SINKING
GENERALLY INTO THE 40S. FACTOR IN MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS...AND
BELIEVE PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT.
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY AS OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH FROM
THE WEST...RIDING A FRONT THAT IS SINKING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BEGINNING
AROUND SUNSET...WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH WINDS RETURNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES AWAY...GULF MOISTURE WILL MAKE ITS RETURN...HELPING
TO MODERATE THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS BY HOLDING THEM IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW
50S WEST...AND THE UPPER 50S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT TUESDAY...
NEXT SIGNIFICANT TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
COMES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HELPING TO
DRAW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AND INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE FRONT IN ADVANCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HAVE LOWERED
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE WEDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE WAVES OF SHOWERS THAT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS...MOVING EAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO/TN VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE TO STEER
UPPER DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MAIN
FRONT NOT MOVING INTO THE REGION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. BREAK IN THE
ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR THIS MORNING MORNING...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE
REGENERATION OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN THREAT IN THE MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF ROANOKE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST. CLOUD BASES
DURING THE DAY TODAY SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AND LOW END VFR TO HIGH END MVFR IN THE MOUNTAINS. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO HAVE IFR GIVEN GOOD SW FLOW KEEPING CIGS/VSBYS MIXED.
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...
10-15KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. STRONGER SHOWERS AND
ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MIX DOWN STRONGER 30 TO 40KT GUSTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS (EXCLUDING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN SOME OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN
VALLEY SPOTS...SUCH AS AT/NEAR KLWB...KBCB) FOR WEDNESDAY INTO AT
LEAST THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE IMPINGES ON THE
AREA FROM THE WEST LATER THURSDAY OR ON FRIDAY. SUB VFR LIKELY
TOWARD SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND SFC HIGH MOVING EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES SETTING UP A WEDGE SCENARIO.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1148 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HAS LEAD TO COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH MUCH OF THE SAME ON THE WAY AS
THIS CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW STALLS OUT OVER ONTARIO. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL ROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW TONIGHT AND
BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE THE LIFT FROM
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE STRONGEST AND MOISTURE WILL BE A
TAD DEEPER. 06.12Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS LOOK FAIRLY DRY ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION...SO IT SHOULD BE HARD FOR ANY RAIN TO REACH
THE GROUND DESPITE WHAT THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SHOWN.
THE MAIN PERIOD FOR THESE SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE FROM LATE EVENING
TO AROUND MIDNIGHT IN WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STAY UP
AROUND WHERE THEY WERE TODAY WITH SURFACE WINDS COMING AROUND TO
THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMING GUSTY BETWEEN 20-30MPH. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD GOING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
STAYING RIGHT AROUND WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TRENDS ARE FOR THE
SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING TO GO FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH WITH THE 06.12Z CANADIAN BEING THE ONLY MODEL STILL
SHOWING ANY RAIN MAKING IT INTO NORTHEAST IOWA/SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THERE IS A FAIRLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL THAT A BROAD RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY.
WITH A COOL AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE AND THIS HIGH OVERHEAD...IT
SHOULD BE A DECENT SETUP FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS. QUESTIONS START TO ARISE FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SUNDAY
LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY THAT THE RAIN WILL BE IN HERE AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
BACK EDGE OF MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ALONG MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AS OF 07.0445Z WILL SLIDE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. FEW-
SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH 07.16Z TO 07.18Z UNTIL VFR CEILINGS
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH
PERIOD WITH 12 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MID-TUESDAY MORNING...THEN
INCREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
103 AM MDT THU OCT 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 101 AM MDT THU OCT 9 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS. LATEST HRRR HAS THESE
SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ANY PCPN FROM THESE SHOULD BE LIGHT. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. REST OF
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. LW
UPDATE ISSUED AT 833 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS ZONES BELOW 10000 FEET. MODELS AND WPC GUIDANCE
CONSISTENT ON WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 1-2"
OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD BEGINNING AROUND 6 AM THURSDAY. THERE WILL
BE CONVECTION WITH THIS EVENT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING...
BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO A MORE STRATIFORM EVENT THE REMAINDER
OF THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NOT SURE IF RAINFALL RATES WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING BUT NOT SURE THAT THEY WON`T EITHER.
WITH A TROPICAL SYSTEM...THERE IS ALWAYS CONCERN. ADD THAT TO THE
BURN SCAR AND URBAN RUNOFF CONCERNS...AND YOU HAVE FLASH FLOOD
CONCERNS. CONSEQUENTLY...IT IS PRUDENT AT THIS TIME TO HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND ALERT FOLKS TO THE POTENTIAL.
ALSO...EXPANDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO INCLUDE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SAWATCH AND MOSQUITO RANGES IN CENTRAL COLORADO
IN ADDITION TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO...WET
AND PIKES PEAK MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONALLY...ADJUSTED THE WATCH TO
START EARLIER...AT NOON THURSDAY...INSTEAD OF 3 PM. THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS SEEM TO BE IN THE BULLS-EYE FOR THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION...WITH THE HEAVIER STUFF STARTING UP AROUND NOON
NOW INSTEAD OF LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. LW
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
...RAIN IS ON THE WAY...
RAIN IS ON THE WAY. THAT MUCH IS A GIVEN...WITH THE REMAINING
CHALLENGES BEING WHEN AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL.
CURRENTLY...REMNANTS OF SIMON ARE MOVING THROUGH AZ. HEAVIEST
CONVECTION IS E OF PHX...WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP ALREADY MOVING INTO
THE 4 CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE TO THE NE
OVERNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIP MOVING INTO THE AREA BY THU
MORNING. IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDS.
MAIN QUESTION TOMORROW IS THE TIMING OF THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIP. IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE HEAVIEST QPF WILL FALL OVER OUR CWA...SE
CO...BUT TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS BOTH
HAVE WIDESPREAD PRECIP MOVING INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY THE
MORNING...WHILE BOTH THE ARW AND NMM WRF HOLD OFF THE HEAVIEST QPF
UNTIL THU EVENING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE EARLY...ALBEIT NOT
STRONGLY...AND DEEP UPSLOPE SHOULD BE IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXTRAPOLATING SAT IMAGERY OF THE COLDEST CLOUD
TOPS AND CONVECTION...LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HAVE RAISED POPS CONSIDERABLY TO THE LIKELY
RANGE IN A SWATH FROM KALS TO KPUB BY THU AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LEAVE
THE CATEGORICAL POPS TO THE LATER PERIODS.
OTHER QUESTION IS HOW HEAVY TO EXPECT THE PRECIP...AND ATTENDANT
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. CAPE AND LAPSE RATES DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY
HIGH TOMORROW...AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY.
HEAVIEST CONVECTION WILL BE DYNAMICALLY FORCED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING INTO OUR AREA. SO...NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD OR SVR
STORMS...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLD HEAVIER CELLS EMBEDDED WITH
THE WIDESPREAD...MORE STRATIFORM...PRECIP. UNFORTUNATELY IT LOOKS
LIKE A HIT OR MISS SITUATION...AND AN UNLUCKY HIT COULD SPELL
PROBLEMS FOR THE BURN SCARS. HOWEVER...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF HGWY 50...WHICH WOULD SPARE
WALDO CANYON BUT LEAVE OTHER SCARS SUCH AS E PEAK UNDER THE GUN.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED EXTENSIVE PRECIP AND CLOUDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO
BE HELD DOWN BELOW ADIABATIC MAXES TOMORROW. HAVE DROPPED HIGH TEMPS
BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES TOMORROW FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND EVEN
THAT IS ABOVE THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR KPUB AND KCOS...SO LATER SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO REEVALUATED WHAT COULD BE OPTIMISTIC HIGHS IN THE
60S TOMORROW. AGAIN...IT WILL BE A QUESTION OF HOW FAST THE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BE FALLING
ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY ON THU...AND BY 00Z FRI COULD SEE SOW LEVELS
FALL TO AROUND 10K FT OR SO. A COUPLE INCHES ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR PIKES PEAK SUMMIT AND OTHER HIGH MOUNTAIN AREAS BY
00Z...BUT THE POTENTIALLY HEAVY MT SNOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THU
NIGHT. EVERYONE SHOULD BE WEATHER AWARE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
AND KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON WHAT COULD BE A RAPIDLY EVOLVING FORECAST.
ROSE
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
...WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING AND TRACK OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECT THE TROUGH TO BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
THURSDAY EVENING AND WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO EASTERN COLORADO BY
FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
INCREASE THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
UPPER SYSTEM. ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE...FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO. LOCATIONS OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT. AREA BURN
SCARS COULD SEE BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL...AND ANY
FLASH FLOODING WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON RAINFALL RATES. THERE COULD
BE SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENT THURSDAY EVENING WHICH COULD ENHANCE
RAINFALL RATES...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. LOW LYING AND
FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN ON ALERT FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING DUE TO THE RAINFALL. AS FOR SNOW...THIS STORM SYSTEM IS
QUITE WARM DUE TO ITS TROPICAL NATURE. SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND WINTER STORM
WATCHES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND WET MOUNTAIN
RANGES...AND PIKES PEAK FOR ELEVATIONS OVER 11 KFT. ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM LIFTING INTO KANSAS FRIDAY
MORNING WITH MOST PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT A QUIET DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE REST OF THE
AREA REMAINS DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO WARM INTO THE 60S
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AFTER ONLY 50S ON FRIDAY.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON SUNDAY WITH HOW THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE REMAINED
CONSISTENT WITH THEMSELVES...BUT REMAIN DIFFERENT FROM EACH OTHER.
THE ECMWF DROPS A STRONG TROUGH SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND ACROSS COLORADO SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS
STRONGER WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WITH MORE UPSLOPE FLOW
AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS. THE GFS...WHICH HAS STARTED TO TREND MORE
WITH THE ECMWF...CONTINUES TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A SHORTWAVE
SOUTH OUT OF MONTANA AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS
SOLUTIONS HAS BEEN DRIER...LESS WINDY AND COLD THAN THE ECMWF.
FOR NOW...GIVEN THE RECENT GFS TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF...STARTED
TO RAMP UP POPS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COLDER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE ROCKIES THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THIS WOULD BRING DRIER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS ABUNDANT PACIFIC
MOISTURE AND THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM SIMON MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO COMBINE WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH 16Z AS SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST.
MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
PERSIST...ESPECIALLY AT COS AND PUB...AS NORTHEAST TO EAST LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW INTERACTS WITH THE REMANTS OF SIMON. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE LOWER SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MTS AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT
PLAINS. THE HIGHER MT PEAKS...AOA 10K FT WILL BE DEALING WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL AS WELL.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
COZ072-074-077>079-081-083>088.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR COZ058-060-063-073-075-080-082.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1044 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
OVERNIGHT FORECAST GRIDS UPDATED TO REFLECT TRENDS OFFERED BY THE
HRRR AND RAP MODELS. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE (700 MB TEMP DATA
RESEMBLES AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT) AND JET STREAK DYNAMICS HAS
ALLOWED MID LEVEL ALTOSTRATUS CLOUD TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. DEEPER MOISTURE STILL RESIDES IN ARIZONA WITH SOME
LIGHT PCPN OCCURRING NORTH OF I40...WITH BUT WINSLOW ASOS HAVING
OBSERVED A RAIN SHOWER EARLIER IN THE EVENING. THIS IS TYPICALLY
AN INDICATOR THAT SOME RAIN WILL REACH MONUMENT VALLEY AND THE SAN
JUAN RIVER BASIN SOON. THE HRRR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN REACH MONUMENT
VALLEY BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND THE SWRN COLORADO VALLEYS SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. HOWEVER THIS IS NOT A SOLID RAIN SHIELD...RATHER THE
SHOWERS ARRIVE IN BITS AND PIECES BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE SRN
PORTION IN EARNEST ON THURSDAY. LOWERED THE OVERNIGHT RAIN THREAT
ALONG THE I70 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AS THE
ARIZONA UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES TOWARD SW COLORADO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
PLENTY MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE POURING NORTHEAST ACROSS
ARIZONA AND INTO SOUTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO. 700 MB
TEMPS STAY VERY WARM AS THIS MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH SW AND CENTRAL
CO AND THE CO NORTHERN MTS THROUGH THU NIGHT..BELIEVE SNOW ACCUMS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 9500 FEET AND HIGHER. CLOUDS AND POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY FOR LATE TONIGHT...THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE FOCUS BEING EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO EAGLE TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS. RIGHT NOW THE
PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER AZ HAVE NOT BEEN THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO HAVE
TEMPERED MY PRECIP AMOUNTS TO REPRESENT LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP
WITH LOCALIZED HEAVIER PRECIP POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY FRIDAY AS THE
GENERAL FLOW CHANGES TO NORTHWESTERLY. PRONE AREAS IN THIS WIND
REGIME...SUCH AS STEAMBOAT SPRINGS...THE SURROUNDING NORTHCENTRAL
DIVIDE MOUNTAINS AND VAIL PASS... MAY HAVE CONTINUING RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. ELSEWHERE WILL BE DRYING OUT FRIDAY AND BY
SATURDAY...NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.
WE ARE KEEPING AN EYE ON A POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER ON
SUNDAY...THOUGH MODEL CONSISTENCIES ARE LEAVING US WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THE CORRECT SOLUTION. THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SOUTH INTO THE NORTHCENTRAL PART OF COLORADO DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY WITH BRISK AUTUMN AIR BEHIND IT SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SOLUTION. HOWEVER... THE EC MODEL BRINGS A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM
WITH MORE THAN ONE HALF INCH QPFS POSSIBLE AND SNOW LEVEL DOWN TO
7500 FT. IN CHOOSING EITHER SOLUTION...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT MANY
AREAS WILL REACH A HARD FREEZE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ONCE A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY PASSES AND SKIES CLEAR TOWARD
MORNING. THE AMOUNT OF POPS AND QPFS WILL HAVE TO BE TUNED AS
FUTURE MODELS BRING BETTER CONSISTENCY TO THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL ON MONDAY BUT REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
WIDESPREAD VFR THROUGH 09Z...THEN LOWERING CEILINGS WILL LEAD TO
AREAS OF MVFR IN THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND
POSSIBLY IMPACT TAF SITES ABOVE 7500 FEET. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE...BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY 18Z WITH
ISOLATED -TSRA OVER SW COLORADO. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 12K
FEET.
NORTHEAST UTAH AND THE NORTHWEST COLORADO CORNER (OR NORTHWEST OF
A LINE FROM KPUC TO KCAG)...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
CEILINGS ABOVE THE RIDGES.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
340 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
07Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A PATTERN THAT HAS
DEAMPLIFIED OVER THE CONUS DURING THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. NORTHERN
STREAM FLOW STILL ARRIVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BC COASTLINE
AND EVOLVED DOWNSTREAM INTO LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEASTERN STATES...HOWEVER THE FLOW FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH HAS BECOME MUCH MORE ZONAL IN NATURE. A RIDGE OF
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME
MORE ELONGATED AND WILL BE BUILDING OVER TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA
THROUGH TODAY. SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW EXTENDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF
AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA SETTING UP A DECENT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN FL
PENINSULA WILL BE REINFORCED TODAY BY A NEW AREA OF CONTINENTAL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM THE OHIO/TN VALLEYS TOWARD THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE OVERALL INFLUENCE FOR OUR REGION WILL BE MINIMAL AS WE
REMAIN WITHIN A PRESSURE PATTERN RESULTING IN LIGHT EASTERLY/NE
SYNOPTIC FLOW. WEATHER OUT THERE THIS EARLY MORNING IS QUIET AND DRY
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
TODAY...
APPEARS WE ARE ENTERING A PERIOD OF RATHER QUIET SENSIBLE WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. STACKED RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
SHAPE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A COLUMN SLOWLY EVOLVING TOWARD ONE
MORE AND MORE HOSTILE TOWARD DEEP CONVECTION. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF SYNOPTIC FORCING TO ENHANCE THE LIFT...AND ONLY MARGINAL MOISTURE
PROFILES THROUGH THE COLUMN...IT WOULD APPEAR ANY LATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL BE VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE. GFS SHOWS WINDS IN THE
TOP HALF OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY ENOUGH TO CERTAINLY SLOW THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ANY DEFINED SEA-BREEZE...OR AT LEAST HOLD THE MAIN FOCUS ZONE
JUST OFF THE COAST. ALL IN ALL...TODAY LOOKS DRY. LOCAL AND NATIONAL
HIRES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS (WHICH TEND TO BE BIASED AGGRESSIVE
WITH CONVECTION) ARE EVEN STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE ANYTHING BUT
ISOLATED SHALLOWS CONVECTIVE TOWERS. IF A LATER DAY SHOWER WAS TO
POP UP...THE MOST LOGICAL LOCATION WOULD BE DOWN TOWARD
CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES AND ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE 20% POP FOR
THESE ZONES BETWEEN 20-00Z.
09/00Z KTBW SOUNDING SHOWS DIURNAL MIXING ON WEDNESDAY UP TO AROUND
850MB OR SO. A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY MORE
EFFICIENT MIXING TODAY...AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 16Z TRANSLATES TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
TONIGHT...
MORE QUIET WEATHER. ISOLATED SHOWERS (IF ANY) SHOULD BE GONE BY 0200
UTC WITH A DRY AND SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT. SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SUPPRESSION WITH THE SLOWLY EVOLVING UPPER RIDGE MAY RESULT IN SOME
PATCHY FOG...HOWEVER BETTER CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG WILL EXIST
TO THE NORTH OF LEVY/SUMTER COUNTY WHERE THE GRADIENT IN PROXIMITY
TO THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE WEAKER. LOW TEMPERATURES BY DAWN
FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 60S NORTH OF I-4...TO THE
MIDDLE 60S AND LOWER 70S FURTHER SOUTH.
FRIDAY...
STACKED RIDGING IS IN PLACE WITH X-SECTION/TIME HEIGHT ANALYSIS FROM
ALL GUIDANCE (NORTH TO SOUTH) SHOWING A VERY DRY COLUMN ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. WILL NOT HAVE ANY RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST GIVEN
THE UNFAVORABLE SYNOPTICS...UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES...AND
GENERAL LACK OF ANY TERRESTRIAL SEA-BREEZE FOCUS. THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE JUST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SCT/FLAT/SHALLOW
CUMULUS FIELD DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER EVEN
THIS CUMULUS FIELDS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE INTO THE LATER AFTERNOON
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES UP ABOVE 850MB AND ERODES THE LAYER OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE SUPPORTING THE CU.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
WITHIN A DEGREE OR 2 EITHER SIDE OF 90.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY A RATHER
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
90 EACH DAY. WITH THE RIDGE PULLING AWAY LATE SUNDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA.
A POTENT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY...CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO TEXAS BY MONDAY. GLOBAL MODELS NOW HANDLE THIS
TROUGH SIMILARLY THROUGH THE THURSDAY...LENDING MUCH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS TO A LARGE AREA OF THE COUNTRY FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING STRONG STORMS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NATURE
COAST LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...BUT THIS IS STILL SIX DAYS OUT AND TIMING AND STRENGTH
ARE DEFINITELY NOT YET WRITTEN IN STONE. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
POSSIBILITY IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THIS MORNING.
IF YOU ARE A FAN OF COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF SHOT OF MORE
COMFORTABLE WEATHER TO END THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED PATCHES OF MVFR GROUND FOG ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD
DAWN...ESPECIALLY FOR KLAL AND KPGD...BUT WILL LIFT QUICKLY WITH
SUNRISE IF IT OCCURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH MAINLY NE/E WINDS AND A FEW-SCT
SHALLOW CU FIELD DEVELOPING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED LATE
AFTERNOON SHOWER FOR KFMY/KRSW...HOWEVER PROB OF OCCURRENCE IS LOW
ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE MENTION WITH CURRENT TAF PACKAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
WATERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS HIGH POSITIONS WILL RESULT
IN A GENERAL EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF.
WINDS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS TONIGHT FROM TARPON
SPRINGS SOUTHWARD...BUT THEREAFTER...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY HEADLINE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS AND ERC VALUES REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE REGION.
PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR THE USUALLY FOG PRONE AREAS EACH
OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHT...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD OR
DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 91 72 90 72 / 10 0 0 10
FMY 92 72 90 71 / 20 10 0 10
GIF 90 70 90 68 / 10 0 0 0
SRQ 92 71 91 72 / 10 10 0 10
BKV 92 65 91 64 / 10 0 0 10
SPG 90 76 90 76 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...JILLSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
130 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2014
.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2014/
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED SO HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE
UNTIL 06Z FOR THE WESTERN ZONES...THEN NO POPS UNTIL MORNING. NO
CHANGES OTHERWISE.
41
&&
.PREVIOUS...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
JUST AS SHORT TERM MODELS HAD BEEN PROJECTING...INSTABILITY AXIS
PER SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS SET UP FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH WEST
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THEN THROUGH MACON. THIS AXIS IS CHARACTERIZED
BY CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2500 J/KG AND 3000 J/KG AND HAS BEEN
SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FOLLOWING THE BOUNDARY THAT WAS SPAWNED
FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION. SHORT TERM REFLECTIVITY MODELS HAVE
REALLY BACKED OFF ON POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
CENTRAL GEORGIA LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE HRRR ONLY SHOWING
HINTS OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW. DESPITE THIS...STICKING WITH LOW
END CHANCE IN THE GRIDS GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY AXIS AS
WELL AS BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD ACT AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM AFTER
21Z. ONLY ITEM MISSING IS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND IN FACT WE ARE
IN AN AREA OF GENERALLY DOWNWARD MOTION THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE
OF MORNING DISTURBANCE BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE NEUTRAL IN NATURE BY
THIS EVENING.
LESS MOISTURE NOTED IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR TONIGHT SO MODELS NOT
PEGGING NEAR AS MUCH ON LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL. THERE IS SOME GROUND
MOISTURE MODELS ARE TRYING TO RESOLVE SO THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE
PATCHY FOG TO DEAL WITH OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
TWO MORE DISTURBANCES IN STORE FOR THURSDAY...THE FIRST LOOKS TO
BE IN THE MORNING AND REMAINING LARGELY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SO EXPECTING LIMITED IMPACTS FROM THAT ONE. THE SECOND MOVES
THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND SPAN MOST OF THE STATE PER THE GFS SO
A LITTLE BETTER CHANCES WITH THAT ONE ALTHOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY AT BEST.
DEESE
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED STARTS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BUT WITH DEEPENING
SHORTWAVE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...SPREADING PACIFIC TROPICAL
MOISTURE EAST TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. LOOKS LIKE A
PROLONGED WET PERIOD TO OUR NORTH BUT FOR NOW ONLY MINOR IMPACTS
IN NORTH GEORGIA. OVER THE WEEKEND...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES SLIDES EAST AND DAMS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HARD TO TELL
AT THIS POINT HOW FAR SOUTH THAT DAMMING WILL EXTEND BUT IT COULD
ACTUALLY BE KIND OF COOL AND CLOUDY ON SUNDAY WITH THE HYBRID
DAMMING. GFS A LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE FOR THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEK...
TRENDING A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF BUT STILL NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG. ECMWF CONTINUES TO PUSH A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH A STRONG FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS NOT AS STRONG AND QUITE A BIT FASTER...
WITH THE FRONT PROGGED TO AFFECT US MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY SO NO CHANGES TO THAT PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED AT THIS TIME. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO 4TH AND 5TH PERIODS TO
REFRESH WITH NEW DATA. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
TDP
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2014/
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST TRENDS AS THE LATEST
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUN REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW STARTS OUT FAIRLY FLAT
AND REMAINS SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
TO SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD
CONCERNING THE DEPTH AND SHARPNESS OF THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF
THE PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER BOTH SHOW OUR REGION
COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WITH GEORGIA JUST SOUTH OF THE MORE ACTIVE
WESTERLY FLOW...BOTH MODELS KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EVEN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREAD INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA...
BETTER CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH.
MODEL INSTABILITY VARIES SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT EACH DAY
SHOWS AT LEAST MARGINAL VALUES UNTIL AROUND WEDNESDAY SO I HAVE KEPT
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
20
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. HOWEVER PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY
ACROSS THE REGION THAT COULD PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS. SCT-BKN CIRRUS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING LATE
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED-SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OR
NEAR CALM THIS MORNING...THEN LIGHT WESTERLY IN ATL/CSG...AND LIGHT
SOUTHEASTLY IN AHN/MCN. WINDS SHOULD BECOME CALM OR NEAR CALM AFTER
01Z FRI.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
17
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 58 85 61 82 / 10 5 20 20
ATLANTA 65 84 65 82 / 20 30 20 20
BLAIRSVILLE 53 78 56 78 / 5 20 20 30
CARTERSVILLE 58 86 61 83 / 10 20 20 30
COLUMBUS 66 89 65 87 / 30 5 10 10
GAINESVILLE 60 82 62 80 / 10 20 20 30
MACON 63 88 64 86 / 30 20 40 10
ROME 58 86 60 84 / 20 30 20 30
PEACHTREE CITY 59 85 60 83 / 20 30 30 20
VIDALIA 67 89 67 86 / 30 5 10 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...41
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1226 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
254 PM CDT
SYNOPSIS...RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AND SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH
TOMORROW. THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S. THEN THE PATTERN TURNS A BIT BUSIER WITH
MULTIPLE CHANCES OF SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY AND GOING THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO FINALLY SHIFTS EAST INTO QUEBEC
TONIGHT AND THEN CONTINUES NORTH ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO
SHIFT. WE REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LEADING TO A DRY DAY TODAY.
PRECIP MOVES IN OVERNIGHT FROM THE NW AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
MOVED POPS WELL NORTH SO THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. THE
12Z MODEL RUNS WERE MORE ROBUST WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND THE
FEATURE LINES UP RATHER WELL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JETS RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS FEATURE A LOT OF OMEGA SO THINKING
SHOWERS WILL FORM DESPITE THE DRIER LOW LEVELS. AREAS NORTH OF I-80
SHOULD BE DRY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING SOUTH OF
I-80. THE GOOD NEWS IS...THE DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS SO EXPECTING LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH NORTH OF I-80. WITH
MORE PERSISTENT RAIN EXTENDING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THINKING
RAINFALL SOUTH OF I-80 WILL BE A BIT MORE ROBUST IN THE 0.15-0.25
RANGE.
THE WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN IL THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE RAIN WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT.
FOR TEMPS...KEPT TONIGHT/S LOW TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOOKING AT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S
ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH OF I-80. CLOUD
COVER COMBINED WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S TOMORROW. THURSDAY NIGHT/S LOW WILL ALL BE BASED
ON CLOUD COVER AND FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE. OUTLYING AREAS NORTH OF
I-80 WILL COOL INTO THE MID 30S DUE TO CLEAR SKIES...WHILE AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S DUE TO CLOUD
COVER. FLOW WILL BE OFF OF THE LAKE SO AREAS ALONG THE LAKE WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THE FINAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BUT THEN QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OVER THE NE COAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING.
LOOKING A DRY END TO THIS WEEK AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. HAVE RAIN
SHIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT AND WHAT I
HAVE IN THE FORECAST MAY STILL BE TOO FAST AS THE MODELS KEEP
SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN. COULD SEE SOME FROST FRIDAY NIGHT DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH SKIES CLEAR. LOWS WEST OF A WOODSTOCK TO JOLIET LINE
WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO LOWER 30S...WITH SHELTERED AREAS POSSIBLY
GETTING CLOSE TO FREEZING. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE.
THE OTHER AREAS WILL BE AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE LAKE.
EXTENDED...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE EXACT TIMING BUT
IT LOOKS LIKE THE TROUGH WILL PASS OVERHEAD TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SURGES NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH RAIN EXPECTED
SUNDAY. COULD SEE A DRY BREAK IN THE EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN MOVING IN MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW. EXPECTING MORE RAINFALL ON MONDAY THAN SUNDAY RIGHT
NOW. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE NEXT SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH
THE LOW AND RAIN EAST...SO KEPT CHANCE POPS IN ON TUESDAY EVEN
THOUGH IT COULD BE DRY.
FOR TEMPS...STILL LOOKING BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 FARTHER SOUTH. TEMPS REACH NORMAL MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND REMAINING IN THE 60S THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE TO AROUND NORMAL IN THE 40S.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT SPEEDS LIKELY
BELOW 10 KT.
* TEMPORARY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT
MDW...THROUGH 15Z.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
MULTIPLE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE FROM
NEBRASKA THROUGH INDIANA DURING THIS MORNING. MOISTURE RETURNING
ALOFT WITH THESE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ECHOES ON RADAR WITH THE
PERIPHERY OF THESE...BASICALLY NEAR THE TAF SITES...YIELDING
TEMPORARY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES. THIS WILL BE OF NO IMPACT.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AOA 7000 FT THROUGH THIS AND THEN GRADUALLY
THINNING LATER THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING LIGHT SYNOPTIC WINDS TODAY
AND ALLOW FOR THE LAKE TO HAVE INFLUENCE ON THE WINDS FOR
CHICAGOLAND TAF SITES. WE DO EXPECT THEM TO TURN PARTIALLY
ONSHORE...HOWEVER WITH A SMALL TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN OVER
LAND AND WATER THIS AFTERNOON DO NOT SEE A PARTICULARLY STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE DEVELOPING...AND THUS KEEP SPEEDS BELOW 10
KT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS.
BEYOND CURRENT TAF TIME...LIKELY SOMETIME FRIDAY MORNING...IT
APPEARS THERE MAY BE SOME BROKEN LAKE EFFECT MVFR CLOUDS INTO
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH IN WIND DIRECTION AND TIMING OF VEERING TO NORTHEAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. MEDIUM IN WIND SPEED REMAINING BELOW 10 KT.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
349 PM CDT
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND
MERGE WITH WEAKER LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY STRONG LOW OF 28.9 INCHES TO THE EAST OF
JAMES BAY BY THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY
TRACK EASTWARD. A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN RESULTING IN 25-30 KT WINDS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF
THE LAKE. AS THINGS PROGRESS EAST THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WHILE REMAINING STRONG TO THE NORTH. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO EASE SOUTH BUT LIKELY CONTINUE TO GUST TO 30 KT
ACROSS THE NORTH. WIND SPEEDS WILL EASE AND TURN NORTHERLY THURSDAY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE AS THE HIGH APPROACHES. THE HIGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD BY SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST SUNDAY. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL THEN BRING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
OR MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS SETTING UP AHEAD OF IT. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED ACROSS THE AREA INTO TUESDAY TURNING WINDS
NORTHERLY. CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE PATTERN EVOLVES BEYOND THAT IS LOW
WITH MIXED SIGNALS FROM MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1203 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
Lots of mid clouds advecting into the area this evening, with some
light pcpn seen on radar loops to the northwest across Iowa.
Initial rain should miss the area to the north, but light rain in
southern Iowa will likely reach parts of the CWA around or just
after midnight. Most of forecast looks fine, but will be making
some adjustments to the overnight lows, as some locations lower
than forecast. Update will be forthcoming.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
High pressure this evening will keep the winds light and somewhat
variable...though two systems converging on the Midwest bringing
some small chances of precip after midnight and into the morning
hours. Starting with clear skies tonight and slowly clouding up as
moisture and next chances for precip pushes into the region from the
SW. Northeastern CWA under clear skies longer and slightly cooler
as a result. In addition to the energy and moisture from the
SW...another wave moving into the area from the northwest. For a
few runs, operational models, specifically the NAM and the GFS have
divided up the precip... and so far the HRRR is trending the same
way. Wave to the NW seems to be producing precip a couple hours
sooner than the SWrn push, but either way...chances increasing into
the early morning hours.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
A complex, evolving upper level weather pattern and the proximity of
a nearly stationary frontal boundary near the Ohio Valley has led to
quite a bit of disagreement in the short and medium range models and
a lower than normal level of confidence in the forecast specifics
for the rest of this week and into early next week.
Complicating things initially are the remnants of Tropical Storm
Simon, which is currently in southern CA. The upper air network is
rather sparse in that area, so the models may be having a hard time
trying to initially latch onto the moisture associated with this
system. The GFS and NAM indicate that during much of Thursday,
isentropic lift should provide the ingredients for widespread
showers and a few thunderstorms. As the upper level forcing with
tropical storm remnants approaches late Thursday into Friday, most
of the lift appears to be focusing farther south toward the nearly
stalled out front. As a result, will keep the higher PoPs south of
Jacksonville-Mattoon-Paris line into Friday. The NAM and GFS may be
a bit overdone with the residual tropical moisture, so scaled back a
bit from the models on precipitation amounts for Thursday night into
Friday. There appears there could be a rather sharp cutoff on the
northern edge of the precipitation for Friday, and followed the
consensus of I-72 and east toward Danville for this line.
With respect to the upper level pattern for early in the weekend,
the GFS and European are not too far off by indicating the flow
backing from westerly to southwesterly. This will bring several
waves of low pressure up the front, but there are differences as to
the speed and location of these systems by Sunday into early next
week. For now will go with an extended period of showers from late
Saturday into Monday. With the progressive nature of the upper level
pattern, will tend to lean a bit more toward the GFS regarding the
ending of the rain by late Monday-very early Tuesday, instead of
continuing the rain all day Tuesday like the European model.
As would be expected with a cloudy and rather rainy forecast, will
keep temperatures below seasonal normals into early next week. A
transition to more of a zonal upper level flow pattern should result
in a trend toward more normal temperatures by the middle of next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
Complex scenario for the first 6-12hrs with all TAF sites
overnight. Based on radar trends, there are two areas of pcpn that
will be moving into the area. The northern area, effecting
PIA/BMI/CMI has already moved in, so will have VCSH for PIA/BMI
to start and then added CMI at 07z. These light showers, along
with mid clouds around 10kft will continue at these sites
overnight. SPI and DEC will see the other area of rain move into
the region and effect the sites within the next couple of hours.
Short term models are not consistent, but tried to lean on the
HRRR model for timing and location of pcpn. Toward early morning,
isolated thunder will be included at SPI/DEC/CMI as the two areas
merge together and move across central IL. As this area with
isolated thunder moves east, it will effect PIA/BMI toward noon.
Showers will then continue at all sites during late morning and
afternoon hours. Then around 00z, the pcpn will diminish at PIA
and BMI, so will just go with VCSH there. The pcpn will continue
at the other three sites into the evening hours. Clouds will
remain high to start but then drop to MVFR at SPI/DEC/CMI during
the day, with some stratus developing with the rain. Vis will
decrease at all sites as well, given the nature of the situation
and the light rain that will be occurring at all sites during the
period. Winds will be variable to start but then become east to
northeast.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1149 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCORPORATE LATEST 18Z FORECAST GUIDANCE
AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL DATA. SLOWED THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION
ARRIVAL DOWN BY A FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. SOME
GUIDANCE...SPECIFICALLY THE NAM AND GFS...BRING PRECIPITATION IN
MUCH EARLIER THAN HIGH-RES MODELS...EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN. ALSO
DECIDED TO INCREASE RAINFALL AMOUNTS...RAISE POPS AND INCLUDE A
HEAVY RAIN MENTION IN THE GRIDS. PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE IS PROJECTED TO APPROACH 1.2-1.3 INCHES...AROUND 2-3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE FROM THE MBRFC IS NEAR 2 INCHES OVER 3 HOURS AND 3
INCHES OVER 6 HOURS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
DO NOT THINK RAINFALL RATES WILL EXCEED THIS GUIDANCE SO OPTED NOT
TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME EVEN WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY
MOIST ATMOSPHERE.
AS FOR FOG TONIGHT...AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL WE WILL SEE FOG LESS
THAN 3 MILES TONIGHT WITH DENSE CIRRUS OVERHEAD AND AN INCREASE IN
WINDSPEEDS AT AROUND THE TIME OF FOG DEVELOPMENT. KEPT FOG MENTION
IN THE GRIDS BUT OVERALL NOT CONFIDENT IT WILL HAPPEN. MORE THAN
LIKELY...WE WILL HAVE STRATUS TONIGHT INSTEAD OF FOG. DID INSERT
FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW NIGHT AS A VERY MOIST...POST
FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN PLACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP HF ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND THE REMNANTS OF SIMON MOVING OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THE THE SURFACE A STALLED FRONT
EXTENDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT EAST OF THIS FRONT HAS HELPED TEMPS
WARM TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S DESPITE LINGERING CLOUD COVER.
TONIGHT...WITH MOISTURE POOLING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE IN OUR
WEST/SOUTHWEST AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST FOG MAY
BEGIN TO DEVELOP. COMPLICATION WILL BE LINGERING AND REDEVELOPING
STRATUS...WHICH COULD LIMIT LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYER..AND WITH UPWARD
MOTION GENERALLY FAVORED BY 12Z AS SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW WE
MAY BE TO WELL MIXED FOR MORE THAN STRATUS OR JUST LIGHT FOG. I KEPT
PATCH FOG MENTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH RIGHT NOW.
THURSDAY...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE COULD
SUPPORT DRIZZLE AS EARLY AS SUNRISE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. MODEL
SOUNDINGS REALLY DO NOT START TO SHOW BETTER MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE UNTIL MIDDAY AS REMNANTS OF SIMON MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS CLOSED 700MB LOW AND
STRONG JET STREAK MOVING IN FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR DEFORMATION BAND
OF PRECIP TO SET UP OVER I-70 CORRIDOR OR SOUTH BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AND COUPLED WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AND TROPICAL
MOISTURE WE COULD START TO SEE STEADY SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 18Z. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE AND WHILE I TRENDED POPS UP AM HESITANT TO GO TOO HIGH
UNTIL WE SEE BETTER RUN-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR ONSET THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. CERTAINLY GOOD PRECIP SIGNAL IN CURRENT GUIDANCE...AND
WITH UNSEASONABLY HIGH PWAT VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL AIR
MASS MAIN PRECIP BAND COULD BE VERY EFFICIENT. MODELS GENERALLY
SHOW LOCATION OF HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER WITH TRACK OF H7 LOW AND POSSIBLE
DEFORMATION/OVERRUNNING EVENT I COULD SEE THESE AMOUNTS SHIFTING
FURTHER NORTH.
WITH FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND CLOUD COVER/PRECIP THERE MAIN BE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL WARMING. I TRENDED HIGHS DOWN FRIDAY TO
THE 60-65F RANGE...AND COULD SEE THIS STILL BEING TOO COOL IF THERE
ISNT A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER BEFORE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP MOVES INTO
REGION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
A TROUGH WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AND THEN SHIFT EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
PLAN TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER OVER
THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN 7H LOW MOVES
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE. POPS WILL
DECREASE TO CHANCE IN THE WESTERN FA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BEST
MOISTURE MOVES EAST. THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS START MOVING MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS OUT OF THE FA FRIDAY EVENING. POPS FRIDAY EVENING WILL
RANGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE DECREASING TO NIL POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BENEFICIAL RAINFALL SHOULD BE REALIZED FROM THIS EVENT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1 INCH. SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE INTO
THE FA BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH WITH NIL POPS CONTINUING SATURDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL COOL TO THE MID 40S AND TO
AROUND 40 FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S
FRIDAY AND THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY.
IN THE EXTENDED...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SUBSIDENCE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN NIL POPS.
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
MONDAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE INTO THE FA BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.
POPS WILL BE NIL MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY
WARMING TO THE LOWER 70S THURSDAY/FRIDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT WARMING TO THE
MID 40S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS RUN. FIRST...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING
OVER PORTIONS OF SW NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. GUIDANCE
BACKED OFF ON STRATUS ARRIVAL TIMES AND THIS IS HARD TO BELIEVE
CONSIDERING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING. STRATUS HAS NOT
REACHED KMCK YET BUT THIS SHOULD HAPPEN SHORTLY. STRATUS ARRIVAL
WAS DELAYED FOR KGLD ALSO BUT WORSE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE MAIN
THINKING. KGLD IS CLOSER TO HIGHEST MOISTURE AND STALLED FRONT.
NEXT QUESTION IS PRECIP CHANCES. LATEST TRENDS IN GUIDANCE SHIFTED
PRECIP AXIS SOUTH. DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIP AT KMCK AND MENTIONED
SHOWERS. LATEST TRENDS INDICATE A CHANCE KMCK COULD MISS PRECIP
COMPLETELY DUE TO DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT FURTHER SOUTH. AT KGLD...PREVAILED MODERATE
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND MODERATE RAIN AFTER 00Z. COULD SEE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AT KGLD WITH LOWERED VIS/CIGS THAN
ADVERTISED. CIGS/VIS FALL WITH PRECIP ONSET.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
435 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
FAIRLY QUIET SHORT TERM OUTSIDE DENSE FOG POSSIBILITIES WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AREA
REMAINS SOUTH OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY.
DENSE FOG IS BEING OBSERVED AT A FEW SELECT SPOTS MAINLY ALONG RIVER
VALLEYS IN FAR SOUTH MS AND WHERE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT MORE.
SOME CONTINUED HIGH CLOUD PRESENCE WILL LIKELY CURTAIL OVERALL DENSE
FOG EXTENT POSSIBILITIES FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WITH MAIN
AREA CONFINED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR IN SE MS. WILL MAINTAIN
GOING DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT A REDUCTION IN AREA ALONG THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN TIERS MAY BE NEEDED BY 6-7AM DEPENDING ON TRENDS. FOG
AND LOW STRATUS WILL MIX OUT BY 8-10AM WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LOW-LVL RIDGING WILL BE EAST OF REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON AND AID IN
S/SW WIND FETCH BRINGING 1.5-1.6" PWATS BACK INTO REGION. THIS ABOVE
NORMAL MOISTURE (+1.5 SD) WILL COMBINE WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN SW/S MS AND NE LA.
EAST AREAS WILL LIKELY HAVE TOO LOW OF A MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COMBO
TO SUPPORT ACTIVITY. EXPECT A QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS
DISSIPATING BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
FRIDAY MORNING AND TRENDS WILL NEED TO MONITORED FOR DENSE
POSSIBILITIES. SLIGHTLY GREATER SHOWER AND WEAK THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SLIDES SOUTH TOWARDS THE
I-40 CORRIDOR IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING WINDS ALOFT. GREATER
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL PICK UP IN FAR NW AREAS
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS STRONGER TROUGHING AND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PIVOT OVER AR/TN WHERE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF RAIN WILL BE SITUATED.
FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS...LOWS WHERE BUMPED UP THIS MORNING GIVEN HIGH
CLOUDS AND MAVMOS LOW TEMPS WERE INCREASED BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
GIVEN NWP DEWPOINT FIELDS. MAVMOS POPS WERE INCREASED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN HI-RES WRF AND HRRR OUTPUT. /ALLEN/
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS BY MID NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE IS QUITE A
SPREAD IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SPLIT FLOW
REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY WITH A SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH
UPSTREAM OF OUR CWA AND A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A 1024MB HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST FROM THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION NUDGING THE
BOUNDARY A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR CWA. THE BOUNDARY WILL SAG
INTO OUR CWA WHILE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. A RATHER MOIST
AIRMASS WITH PWS AROUND 1.70IN WILL RESIDE OVER OUR CWA AND SERVE TO
FUEL CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO SUNDAY. A RETREATING SURFACE
RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST AND MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES.
GREATEST POPS WILL BE CARRIED OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA
THROUGH SUNDAY. RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
INSOLATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE 00Z GFS MOS TEMPERATURES WERE AMONG
THE WARMEST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SO GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE LEANED TOWARD
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A POTENT
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST CONUS
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS DIFFERS FROM THE ECMWF IN CLOSING OFF A LOW OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF CLOSES OFF
A LOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO
GROWING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ATLEAST OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT TWO TO FOUR
INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL OVER OUR NORTHWEST DURING THIS TIME AND DUE
TO ANTICIPATED STRONG KINEMATIC FIELDS...DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE GFS MAY BE A LITTLE FAST IN MOVING THE
ACTIVITY INTO OUR CWA AND SLOWER TIMING WILL RESULT IN LESS
INSTABILITY. WL HOLD OFF INTRODUCING MENTION IN HWO TONIGHT. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA TUESDAY AND THE RAIN SHOULD BE
OVER BY MIDNIGHT. GFS MOS TEMPERATURES WERE AMONG THE COOLEST
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE LEANED
TOWARD A SLOWER TROUGH PROGRESSION OF THE ECMWF AND WARMER GFS
ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURES THOUGH THIS PERIOD. MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR
NORTHEAST FOR WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY. /22/
&&
.AVIATION...VLIFR CONDITIONS ONGOING AT KHBG AND KGTR WITH 1/4 TO 1/2
MILE FOG BEING REPORTED ALONG WITH LOW CEILINGS. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING BUT PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KMEI AND
KJAN AREAS THROUGH 13-14Z LEADING TO MVFR TO BRIEF IFR. ALL AREAS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH MID MORNING TO VFR THROUGH REMAINDER OF
DAY UNTIL ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR TO LVIFR FOG FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW
SHRA EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND MAY INCLUDE VCSH IN 12Z TAFS FOR KJAN BUT
BEST AREAS WILL BE IN SW MS AND NE LA EARLY TO LATE AFTERNOON. /ALLEN/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 90 69 88 69 / 10 10 16 20
MERIDIAN 90 67 89 67 / 10 10 15 17
VICKSBURG 90 70 88 68 / 18 10 18 23
HATTIESBURG 90 68 90 68 / 19 10 14 14
NATCHEZ 87 71 86 69 / 29 10 19 14
GREENVILLE 90 70 87 67 / 16 12 24 50
GREENWOOD 90 68 87 66 / 10 14 24 43
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MSZ052-
054>058-062>066-072>074.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
ALLEN/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
356 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED NEAR THE THE UTAH
AND ARIZONA BORDER. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE MAIN AREA
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WEST
TEXAS. A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM SASKATCHEWAN
CANADA INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ATTM FROM FAR NERN KS/FAR SERN NEBR INTO
CENTRAL MISSOURI AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF IOWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WILL EXIST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN
KANSAS TODAY WITH THE MAIN WARM FRONT SETTLING SOUTH TO NEAR THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS WILL COMBINE FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES WHILE LESS CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER. PREFER A BLEND OF THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS 60-62
NCTRL AND 63-66 CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TO
BECOME MAINLY EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS TODAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT SAGS SOUTH TODAY.
WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS
COLORADO AND KANSAS TODAY...MUCH OF NEBRASKA WILL BE INFLUENCED
BY THE NORTHERN STREAM...WITH STEERING WINDS FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH. PREFER THE NAM MODEL SOLUTION KEEPING SHOWER
CHANCES SOUTH OF THE NEBRASKA STATE LINE THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL
STILL KEEP AT LEAST A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE TONIGHT FOR FAR
SWRN COUNTIES STILL SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF AND TO SOME DEGREES BY
THE GFS. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO NEAR 45 FAR
SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
FRIDAY A LOW WILL BE SLIDING EAST ACROSS COLORADO AND KANSAS
PRODUCING SHOWERS...MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH LESS CONFIDENCE SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT MUCH INTO
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THE EC AND THE GEM CONTINUE TO BRING QPF UP TO
NEAR I80...HOWEVER THE NAM AND GFS KEEP IT IN KS. ALSO LOOKING
LIKE THE DRY AIR WITH THE HIGH WILL BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME...EVEN
WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST WITH
ANY LINGERING PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO BE SOUTHEAST OF
THE CWA. WHILE THE HIGH IS NOT DIRECTLY OVERHEAD /CENTER TO THE
EAST/ TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.
OVER THE WEEKEND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION.
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE A WARM UP FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
INTO THE 60S WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST NEARING 70. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT INCREASING CLOUDS WILL HELP HOLD LOWS IN THE 40S.
WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME DRY AIR INITIALLY...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO HELP...BUT MORE TO COME FROM THE PACIFIC..TOP DOWN.
PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR NW COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS SATURDAY EVENING.
THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND EXPECT SOME CLOUDS...BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON POST FRONTAL PRECIP COVERAGE. IT MAY END UP BEING
MORE SPRINKLES WITH ISOLD SHOWERS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT DRY AIR FILLS
IN WITH AN END OF THE PRECIP.
NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE WEST THEN SHIFT
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NICE WARM UP THROUGH
MID WEEK...LOWER TO MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES ARE
GENERALLY LOW...ALTHOUGH NW FLOW AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BRING A DISTURBANCE OR TWO ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON. AT THIS TIME
FAVORING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT COLUMN IS FAIRLY DRY AND
FORECAST REMAINS DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
A STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. WILL AFFECT KS THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. ANY MVFR/IFR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA.
THERE IS ALSO A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS THIS
EVENING AND THE NAM AND THE RAP ATTEMPT TO GENERATE A NARROW BAND
OF MVFR/IFR CIGS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES OR ENTERS NRN
NEB THURSDAY MORNING 13Z-15Z. THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN THE
LIMITED MOISTURE BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE...5 PERCENT...THAT
THESE LOW CEILINGS WILL FORM ACROSS NCNTL NEB THURSDAY MORNING.
IF THE CEILINGS DEVELOP...VFR WOULD DEVELOP AROUND 21Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1145 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
PERSISTENT...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER NWRN ONTARIO...IS
FINALLY BEGINNING TO SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST TDY. AS OF THE 12Z
UA ANALYSIS...THIS FEATURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF ONTARIO. FIFTY TO SEVENTY METER HT FALLS EXTENDED FROM THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. FIFTY TO 90 METER RISES
WERE NOTED FROM NERN SD INTO WEST VIRGINIA. A JET STREAK EXTENDED
FROM SRN ALBERTA INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND.
ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WAS SPINNING
OFF THE COAST OF SAN DIEGO WITH THE REMNANTS OF TS SIMON ACROSS
ARIZONA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TS SIMON...HAS PUSHED NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS TDY. THIS HAS LED
TO ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT RANGED FROM
68 AT NORTH PLATTE...TO 72 AT VALENTINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA FROM A LINE OCCURRING SPENCER SOUTHWEST TOWARDS AMEILA AND
POINTS EASTWARD. CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA BUT HAVE LEFT CHANCES IN SINCE ENVIRONMENT
IS STILL MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. WEAK FRONTOGENESIS STILL REMAINS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH THE NOSE OF
THE JET SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN SD AND WESTERN IOWA PUTS THIS REGION
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
DECIDED TO LOWER TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...TRENDED MORE TO THE ECMWF MODEL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AS
THIS SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE COOLER AIR MOVING IN
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS DID NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
SKY COVERAGE FOR TONIGHT AND FELT IT DID NOT BRING STRATUS DECK FAR
ENOUGH NORTH ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. KEPT TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DUE TO
EXPECTED CLOUD COVERAGE.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES THURS LATE AFTERNOON FOR EXTREME SW NEB
AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SIMON CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. DECIDED TO TREND BACK ON POPS FOR
THURS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SW NEBRASKA AS THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS
APPEARS TO BE FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS SUGGESTED KEEPING
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS KANSAS. TOOK OUT THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS PUT IN RAIN SHOWER WORDING AS STRONGER LIFT STAYS
SOUTH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
HURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DURING THE MID RANGE
PERIODS...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THE SOUTH...CLOUDINESS AND TEMPERATURES. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ALONG AND EAST OF THIS
FEATURE...STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL KS...WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE AND LEFT OVER
MOISTURE FROM TS SIMON...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS KANSAS.
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS AREA...APPEARS TO IMPACT FAR SRN
NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS PCPN WITH THIS MORNINGS RUNS...AND
HAVE PUSHED THE POP THREAT FARTHER SOUTH...MAINLY ENCOMPASSING OUR
FAR THREE SWRN COUNTIES OF CHASE...HAYES AND FRONTIER. ELSEWHERE...A
THICK VEIL OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL HOLD LOWS TO
THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE CENTRAL AND SRN CWA. IN THE NORTH WHERE
THE VEIL OF CLOUDS WILL BE THIN...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE
UPPER 30S. FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...FORCING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...STALLING THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGES OF COLORADO AND
WYOMING...AS WELL AS CENTRAL KS. IN ADDITION TO CAA...ABUNDANT MID
AND HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN 2/3RDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
SOME LOW 60S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST CLOUDS WILL BE
LIMITED AND WEAK WAA WILL DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT. GUIDANCE LOWS CAME IN REAL COOL FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SERN AND EASTERN FORECAST AREA WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND A DEVELOPING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THIS IN MIND...LIMITED LOWS TO THE MID
30S TO THE UPPER 40S. ON SATURDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGES OF WYOMING AND COLORADO.
INCREASING SRLY WINDS WILL PUSH WARM AIR NWD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON H85 TEMPS...WE SHOULD SEE A
WIDE RANGE IN TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 IN THE
EAST TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE WEST.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE
RETAINED IN THE FORECAST...HOWEVER FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MEAGER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. RIDGING WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE EXITING
TROUGH ON MONDAY...AND WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A DRY FCST WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND
40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
A STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. WILL AFFECT KS THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. ANY MVFR/IFR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA.
THERE IS ALSO A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS THIS
EVENING AND THE NAM AND THE RAP ATTEMPT TO GENERATE A NARROW BAND
OF MVFR/IFR CIGS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES OR ENTERS NRN
NEB THURSDAY MORNING 13Z-15Z. THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN THE
LIMITED MOISTURE BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE...5 PERCENT...THAT
THESE LOW CEILINGS WILL FORM ACROSS NCNTL NEB THURSDAY MORNING. IF
THE CEILINGS DEVELOP...VFR WOULD DEVELOP AROUND 21Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...GOMEZ
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
102 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
BAND OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS PERSISTS ACROSS WESTERN INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS AN AREA OF ENHANCED
THERMAL LIFT NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO MATCH.
A FEW ISOLATED RADAR RETURNS ALSO SHOWING UP SO EXPANDED AND
EXTENDED ISOLD SHOWERS SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH 09Z.
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE/SCATTER OUT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH NOW THROUGH 09-12Z.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN MORTON COUNTY INTO EASTERN SIOUX...EMMONS AND
MCINTOSH COUNTIES THROUGH AROUND 1 AM CENTRAL. OTHERWISE MAINLY
CLEAR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTHWEST WITH A BAND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT NORTH WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND WITH
TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE LOWER 30S. TOUGH CALL ELSEWHERE WITH
THE REMAINING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A BAND OF THICKER HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO TEMPERATURES HERE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
DAKOTAS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FOR THE
EVENING UPDATED ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND BACKED OFF ON POPS ACROSS
THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. LATEST 21 UTC HRRR AND 22 UTC RAP
CONTINUE TO INDICATE POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINING OVER
MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THUS
LATEST POPS WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE MESOSCALE MODELS WITH
CURRENT RADAR ACTIVITY. THUS A LESS WIDESPREAD AREA OF SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA INTO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH STRETCHING THROUGH THE MIDWEST
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE LOW PUSHES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
JAMES BAY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BRINGING NORTHWEST FLOW TO OUR AREA. A
FEW SUBTLE SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE FLOW BRINGING
SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO PARTS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF AND SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...WITH QUIET WEATHER THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...CHILLY
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
ON THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS RIDGE TO THE
WEST AMPLIFIES AND STARTS PUSHING A BIT TO THE EAST BRINGING
DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS THE SATURDAY WARM UP FOLLOWED BY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. USED MAINLY A CONSENSUS
MODEL BLEND FOR DETAILS.
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND COOL DRY HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN TO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA. MORNING LOWS FRIDAY MORNING AROUND 30F IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WITH MID/UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST. A COOL AND QUIET DAY
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. A SMALL AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CLIPS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE STATE...JUST ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE COOL SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST...AND A SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW COMMENCES. NOT AS COOL SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE
35 TO 40 RANGE. ON SATURDAY...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH.
THE UPPER LEVEL AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT...EXITING INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH
SUNDAY. THE GFS DEVELOPS FAST-MOVING ZONAL WEST-TO-EAST FLOW ALOFT
WHICH COULD BRING SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME TO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE EUROPEAN MODEL DEVELOPS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE INSTEAD...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL TUESDAY...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTIONS IN THE NORTH - THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
SUGGEST SOME ENERGY IN SOUTHERN CANADA POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE
NORTHERN TIER.
OTHERWISE FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH CIGS FROM 7K-10K FT ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL INCLUDING KISN...KDIK AND KBIS...KJMS FOR A PERIOD.
STILL EXPECT SKY COVER TO THE DIMINISH SLOWLY OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THURSDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AT 10 KTS OR LESS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
146 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS TENNESSEE VALLEY TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LINGER JUST TO OUR
NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH AND
WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MIGRATE
SOUTH INTO THE I85 CORRIDOR LEADING TO PREDOMINANT LIGHT/CALM
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NC ZONES. THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GA
ZONES ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE THE NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE GOING CALM JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. SKIES REMAIN
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AS MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CONTINUES TO STREAM
IN ALOFT FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN AL AND GA.
EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY SCT OUT AFTER DAYBREAK. AS FOR THE FORECAST...MADE SLIGHT
TWEAKS TO SKY ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
1015 PM UPDATE...NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE NC/SC
BORDER. THE LAST OF THE DIURNAL CONVECTION UPSTREAM ALONG THE FRONT
OVER NRN AL/GA HAS NEARLY ALL CEASED AND IT NO LONGER APPEARS THERE
IS ANY THREAT OF A CELL PROPAGATING INTO OUR NE GA ZONES. DROPPED
POPS TO VERY NEAR ZERO ACRS THE CWFA THRU THU MRNG. LATEST MODEL
RUNS MAY HAVE PICKED UP ON THE STALLING OF THE FRONT AND TRENDED A
BIT WARMER FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT. SHORT-TERM CONSENSUS PRODUCT ALSO
SUGGESTED THE HRLY TEMPS WERE A COUPLE DEGREES TOO COOL. THUS
REVISED A BIT BASED ON THE NEWER GUIDANCE.
CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR STANDING WAVE CIRRUS TO FORM
IN THE LEE OF THE APPS. DEEP NW FLOW...A MTN TOP INVERSION SEEN ON
KRNK RAOB...AND SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION AS SEEN ON WV IMAGERY. WRF
SIMULATED IR IMAGES FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS HIGH CLOUD FRACTION
FIELDS FROM 23Z HRRR BOTH SEEM TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS. SO I
INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE NC MTN/FOOTHILLS ZONES LATE TONIGHT.
AS OF 215 PM...FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM. AT THE SURFACE...THE WEAK FRONT NOW EXITING THE AREA TO
THE SE WILL CONTINUE ON TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE QUICKLY SE AND SETTLE OVER THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE TO THE COAST BY THU AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE
HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST ON THU...WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP.
GFS MODEL TIME HEIGHT SHOWS MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SO A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL
OCCUR. MODELS SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF RESPONSE OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS
LATE IN THE DAY APPARENTLY DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW AND AN APPROACHING
UPPER IMPULSE. WILL ALLOW POPS TO INCREASE INTO THE SLIGHT CHC RANGE
OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR PERHAPS A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS.
EVEN THOUGH TEMPS WILL COOL OVERNIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE CLIMO PER A
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE. FORECAST HIGHS ON THU WILL LIKEWISE BE
ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE AVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO EARLIER THOUGHTS ABOUT
THE SHORT RANGE. THE MODELS STILL DEPICT A CONFLUENT ZONE ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC DOWNSTREAM OF A SPLIT IN THE FLOW OVER THE
PLAINS. THE RESULTING ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EAST WILL ESSENTIALLY TRAP
A SURFACE BOUNDARY STRUNG OUT WEST TO EAST ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EJECT FROM THE TROF
TO THE WEST AND MOVE PAST MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. ALTHO THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE ACTUAL FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL...IT
SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO KEEP A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT
OF POP ACROSS THE REGION STARTING FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS PERHAPS
A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING THE BOUNDARY DOWN AS A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE NW PIEDMONT LATE SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THIS POINT. PRECIP CHANCES CLIMB INTO THE CHANCE RANGE FOR
ALL BUT THE LAKELANDS BY THE END OF SATURDAY...AS THE MAIN SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AS THE SPLIT FLOW BREAKS DOWN. HAVE
KEPT PRECIP PROBABILITY BELOW THE LIKELY RANGE FOR THE TIME
BEING...BUT THE TREND IS UPWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER BASED ON
THE NEW GUIDANCE. TEMPS WERE KEPT ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
WITH A DEEP TROF THAT IS EXPECTED TO DIG ACRS THE CENTER OF THE
CONUS SUN-MON...THEN TRACK ACRS THE EASTERN STATES TUE-WED. THE
GFS/GEFS AND CMC HAVE A LESS DEEP/MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE THAN
THE ECMWF/ECENS/UKMET SOLNS...WITH THE OP ECMWF THE DEEPEST/SLOWEST
OF THE GUIDANCE. THE LATEST WPC PREFERENCE IS FOR A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS...WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF. THIS RESULTS
IN QUITE A DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE CWFA AS IT BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE WILL TRACK
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES...AND PUSH A COLD FRONT
ACRS THE CWFA. THE EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT THERE SHUD
BE NO WEDGE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WITH SUCH A DEEP
SYSTEM...GULF MOISTURE AND INSTBY SHUD BE PRESENT. THERE WILL ALSO
BE PLENTY OF SHEAR...WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR 50-60 KM OVERLAPPING
400-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. BLENDING IN THE HPCGUIDE POP...I HAVE HIGH-END
CHC TO LIKELY POPS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...TAPERING OFF TUESDAY
NIGHT. IF THE ECWMF VERIFIES...THERE IS A DECENT CHC OF A LINEAR
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. CONFIDENCE IS STILL
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.
AS THE UPPER TROF QUICKLY LIFTS NE OUT OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE SOUTH
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT/CALM NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING AT ALL
SITES. THUS...INITIALIZED ALL TAFS WITH SUCH UNDER SCT/BKN HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING IN ALOFT FROM REMNANT FRONTAL CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTHERN AL AND GA. FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
BY MORNING ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND SC UPSTATE BEFORE VEERING
SOUTHERLY AROUND MIDDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES TO THE
EAST. FLOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN LGT/VRB AT KAVL AFTER DAYBREAK BEFORE
EVENTUALLY INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH BY MIDDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLIDING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL WARRANT CONTINUED
MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO WARRANT LOW VFR CIGS. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
REMAINS LOW ENOUGH TO FORGO ANY WX INCLUSION AT ANY SITE.
OUTLOOK...ASIDE FOR POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/CIGS...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL GENERALLY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
BACKDOOR FRONT AND DEVELOPING COLD AIR DAMMING ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY
BRING RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-05Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 72%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 72%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 72%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 72%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 72%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 72%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...CDG/LG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...CDG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1229 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014/
UPDATE...
LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE FORECAST LOWS IN A
COUPLE OF SPOTS...THUS DECREASED THEM SLIGHTLY ALTHOUGH DO NOT
EXPECT THEM TO DROP MUCH MORE WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION. ALSO ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR TONIGHT WITH SMALL
TEMPERATURE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND PATCHY FOG ALREADY DEVELOPING.
JCL
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT MAINLY FROM NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL INTO MUCH OF
WEST TN. ALREADY SEEING DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MO THAT ARE MOVING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHEAST AR
AND THE MO BOOTHEEL. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA...MAINLY ALONG
AND TO THE NORTH A FRONTAL SYSTEM LOCATED FROM JUST SOUTH OF
JONESBORO AR TO JUST NORTH OF SAVANNAH TN. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. MADE A FEW OTHER
MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES...SKY COVER...WIND AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS FOR TONIGHT. UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SENT. ALSO UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO MENTION THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
JCL
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014/
/ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
A CLUSTER OF STORMS IN NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI SHOWED A WEAKENING
TREND EARLY...BUT INTENSIFIED SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLUSTER
COULD PRODUCE SOME SEVERE WEATHER AS IT PROGRESSES TO THE EAST.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. THIS WILL BE NORTH OF A STALLED
FRONT DRAPED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES.
THE FRONT WILL WOBBLE TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...WITH SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION REMAINING IN THE FORECAST. IT WILL NOT FEEL
MUCH LIKE FALL...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY...
AND THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH. COOLER AIR
WILL BE FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THIS WILL NUDGE INTO MUCH
WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
IN THE END...A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT/BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE FRONT TO END THE PERIOD...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
POOLING AROUND THE FRONT. SOME OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE PROVIDED BY
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SIMON FROM THE PACIFIC. THERE WILL BE
LOTS OF CLOUDS...AND LIKELY CHANCES FOR RAIN.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SHAPING UP FOR THE LAST PART OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN AND SOME SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.
IN THIS SET UP...DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION
AND WILL PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AS A STRENGTHENING
UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A
QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...AND WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK
AS A SURFACE LOWS DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE THE DEEPENING H500 TROUGH.
THE SURFACE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AND TRACK ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW RAPIDLY BEHIND IT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM BEGINS TO TILT NEGATIVELY. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND WINDS ENERGY...THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AS WELL AS
SOME FLASH FLOODING.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE MENTIONED THAT THERE IS SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCE IN THE LONG TERM MODELS THAT COULD EFFECT THE EXACT
LOCATION AND MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER.
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY MID WEEK TO ROUND OUT THE
END OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF SET
LATEST HRRR SHOWS DEVELOPMENT OF SHRAS/TSRAS ACROSS NE ARKANSAS OVER
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD BLOSSOM AND SPREAD INTO NW TN.
WILL INTRODUCED VCTS WORDING WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT KJBR AND KMKL. PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP AT KTUP
REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR THROUGH 13Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME SSW AT 8-10 KTS BY 15Z.
SPEEDS WILL DROP TO 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z.
KRM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
401 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...
00Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A TIGHT
CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION EXTENDED ACROSS ARIZONA INTO
NEW MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE TROF WAS LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. SURFACE WIND REMAINED OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WHICH WAS SLOWLY PULLING IN HIGHER LEVELS OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWS AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
MOVING NORTHEAST BUT CURRENT TRAJECTORY SHOWS THAT THESE SHOULD
SKIRT JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
MODELS KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE BETTER PART OF TODAY WITH HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA. THE HRRR IS THE ONLY
MODEL WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THE MORNING CONVECTION AND
KEEPS IT OUT OF THE AREA SO WILL KEEP THE FIRST 6-HOUR WINDOW OF THE
FORECAST DRY. THERE WERE A FEW MODELS THAT INDICATED SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AT
VARIOUS TIMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LOOKING AT
THE DETAILS...MOST OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR AREAS OF FORECAST
CONVECTION SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE A PRETTY STOUT CAP IN PLACE WITH
LIMITED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ALOFT. IN ADDITION...THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA AS A 50 TO 70
KNOT JET MOVES OVERHEAD PLACING THE LEFT EXIT REGION WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND...REMOVED LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL AGAIN BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AS
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE DAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH TOWARDS THE
AREA. THE FRONT IS NOT FORECAST TO MAKE IT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE BUT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
AND BROAD SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE WHICH MAY HELP
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
AND COVERAGE NOT VERY WIDESPREAD INITIALLY BUT COVERAGE MAY INCREASE
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE THE GREATEST BUT RELATIVELY COOLER ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
JORDAN
&&
.LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS FOCUSED ON TWO COLD FRONTS AND TWO
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
THE INITIAL EXCITEMENT WILL KICK OFF THE LONG TERM ON FRIDAY AS A
SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING
POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONVERGE ON THE SOUTH PLAINS.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NWP REGARDING THE
SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE NAM ON THE FAST SIDE PUSHING THE
FRONT THROUGH THE CWA BETWEEN 12 AND 21Z...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
IS ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS SLOWER. WE HAVE TENDED TO FAVOR THE CONSENSUS
OF SOLUTIONS...MEANING A LATER FROPA...THOUGH THIS IS SUBJECT TO
CHANGE...ESPECIALLY IF OUTFLOWS FROM POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION TO OUR
NORTH CAN GIVE THE FRONT AN EXTRA BOOST. THE FRONT TIMING/LOCATION
WILL BE CRITICAL AS MORE STABLE /COOLER AND DRIER/ AIR WILL QUICKLY
MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND LIMIT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY. GIVEN THE
PREFERRED SLOWER SOLUTION...IT STILL APPEARS THE SOUTHERN ZONES
WILL STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH PEAK HEATING WHICH COULD SET
THE STAGE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...PWATS NEAR 1.5
INCHES WILL PROMOTE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...THOUGH RELATIVELY
QUICK STORM MOTIONS AND THE SOUTHWARD SHIFTING FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIMIT THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION. THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
WELL...THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE MUTED SOMEWHAT WITH
LESS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WE HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE HIGH
CHANCE CATEGORY THERE...TAPERING BACK TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT TOWARD
THE TX/NM STATE LINE. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS...THOUGH THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS
WELL TO THE SOUTH AND THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES OFF TO THE EAST.
SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE DRY...BUT IT WILL START OUT CLOUDY AND
COOL WITH A NORTHERLY BREEZE. THE CLOUDS WILL EVENTUAL BREAK THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY PEAK IN THE 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 70S WHERE THE SUN APPEARS EARLIEST. IN
CONTRAST...SUNDAY WILL BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL BOOST HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S. THIS
WARM UP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A STRONG JET DIVING THROUGH THE WEST
CARVES OUT A SHARP BUT PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE NATION. A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG A DIFFUSE DRYLINE IN
ADVANCE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BETTER/DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE CWA BY PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...THE STRONG UPPER
JET AND ASSOCIATED DPVA ALONG WITH OUR NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SO ONLY
LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS NARROW
PRECIPITATION WINDOW. DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER FROM THE
WEST.
AFTER THE WARM AND BREEZY SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
MAKE IT TO THE 70 DEGREE MARK MONDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL
FOLLOW AS THE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD THOUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...THOUGH COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH A DRY
ATMOSPHERE RESIDE IN THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 83 54 67 41 68 / 10 20 40 20 0
TULIA 84 54 69 44 68 / 10 20 40 30 10
PLAINVIEW 83 62 71 46 68 / 10 20 30 30 10
LEVELLAND 84 60 75 46 70 / 0 20 20 30 10
LUBBOCK 84 64 75 49 68 / 0 20 20 40 10
DENVER CITY 85 61 78 49 71 / 0 20 10 20 10
BROWNFIELD 86 61 77 49 70 / 0 20 20 30 10
CHILDRESS 87 65 74 50 68 / 10 20 50 40 10
SPUR 86 64 78 49 69 / 0 10 40 40 10
ASPERMONT 88 68 81 51 69 / 0 10 40 50 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
14/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2014
.UPDATE...
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY
THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS SHOULD PASS TO OUR NORTH...BUT
BOUNDARIES EMANATING FROM THIS CONVECTION MAY SPARK SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AS WE HEAD TOWARDS MIDDAY.
OTHERWISE... LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN NORTHWEST A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR
CLOUD COVER AND ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS TO MATCH TRENDS. ALL OTHER
ELEMENTS LOOKED GOOD. NO OTHER UPDATES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RW
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2014/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2014/
MODELS SEEM TO BE DOING THEIR BEST TO SHOW WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
WILL BE WITH THE WEAK SHORT WAVES THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...UNFORTUNATELY...BECAUSE OF THE
FAST FLOW...TIMING HAS BEEN RATHER DIFFICULT. BASED ON THE 00Z RUN...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH GA TODAY AND
THEN AGAIN FRIDAY. TODAYS SHORT WAVE LOOKS A BIT WEAKER THAN FRIDAYS
AND HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TODAY...AND CHANCE POPS FRIDAY.
CENTRAL GA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
KEEP THAT AREA DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST 4 DAYS...THE MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES HAS BEEN DOING A
GREAT JOB AND WILL BE GOING WITH THE BLEND.
17
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2014/
RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF
WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS. THIS IMPACTS MAINLY NORTH GEORGIA WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TURNING INCREASINGLY
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OFF A VERY DEEP AND SHARP UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. THE GFS HAS CONTINUED TRENDING TOWARD
THE EARLIER ECMWF TRENDS OF DEVELOPING AN UNUSUALLY STRONG AND DEEP
SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. GFS/ECMWF/CMC ALL CLOSE OFF A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY OR EARLY
TUESDAY. GFS REMAINS AT LEAST SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
SYSTEM. TIMING IS LIKELY TO WAVER A BIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL
RUNS...BUT RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE STRONG SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
SURFACE FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MODEL INSTABILITY
REMAINS MODEST AT BEST...STRONG FORCING AND MODERATE TO STRONG LOW-
LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR POINT TO A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.
20
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. HOWEVER PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY
ACROSS THE REGION THAT COULD PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. SCT-BKN CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH THE HRRR IS HINTING AT ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE ATL AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME RISK IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE ATL AREA TAFS BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
WINDS WILL BE CALM OR NEAR CALM THIS MORNING...THEN LIGHT WESTERLY
IN ATL/CSG...AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY IN AHN/MCN. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
CALM OR NEAR CALM AFTER 01Z FRI.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON SHRA DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
17
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 85 62 85 63 / 20 10 10 10
ATLANTA 85 67 84 65 / 20 10 10 20
BLAIRSVILLE 78 59 78 60 / 30 20 50 30
CARTERSVILLE 84 62 85 61 / 30 20 20 30
COLUMBUS 90 66 89 65 / 10 5 5 10
GAINESVILLE 83 64 83 63 / 20 20 20 20
MACON 90 64 89 63 / 10 10 10 5
ROME 85 61 85 60 / 30 20 30 30
PEACHTREE CITY 86 60 85 62 / 20 10 10 10
VIDALIA 88 66 87 66 / 5 5 5 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM...RW
AVIATION...ARG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
730 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2014/
MODELS SEEM TO BE DOING THEIR BEST TO SHOW WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
WILL BE WITH THE WEAK SHORT WAVES THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...UNFORTUNATELY...BECAUSE OF THE
FAST FLOW...TIMING HAS BEEN RATHER DIFFICULT. BASED ON THE 00Z RUN...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH GA TODAY AND
THEN AGAIN FRIDAY. TODAYS SHORT WAVE LOOKS A BIT WEAKER THAN FRIDAYS
AND HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TODAY...AND CHANCE POPS FRIDAY.
CENTRAL GA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
KEEP THAT AREA DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST 4 DAYS...THE MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES HAS BEEN DOING A
GREAT JOB AND WILL BE GOING WITH THE BLEND.
17
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2014/
RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF
WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS. THIS IMPACTS MAINLY NORTH GEORGIA WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TURNING INCREASINGLY
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OFF A VERY DEEP AND SHARP UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. THE GFS HAS CONTINUED TRENDING TOWARD
THE EARLIER ECMWF TRENDS OF DEVELOPING AN UNUSUALLY STRONG AND DEEP
SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. GFS/ECMWF/CMC ALL CLOSE OFF A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY OR EARLY
TUESDAY. GFS REMAINS AT LEAST SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
SYSTEM. TIMING IS LIKELY TO WAVER A BIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL
RUNS...BUT RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE STRONG SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
SURFACE FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MODEL INSTABILITY
REMAINS MODEST AT BEST...STRONG FORCING AND MODERATE TO STRONG LOW-
LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR POINT TO A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.
20
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. HOWEVER PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY
ACROSS THE REGION THAT COULD PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. SCT-BKN CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH THE HRRR IS HINTING AT ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE ATL AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME RISK IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE ATL AREA TAFS BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
WINDS WILL BE CALM OR NEAR CALM THIS MORNING...THEN LIGHT WESTERLY
IN ATL/CSG...AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY IN AHN/MCN. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
CALM OR NEAR CALM AFTER 01Z FRI.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON SHRA DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
17
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 85 62 85 63 / 5 10 10 10
ATLANTA 85 67 84 65 / 10 10 10 20
BLAIRSVILLE 78 59 78 60 / 20 20 50 30
CARTERSVILLE 84 62 85 61 / 20 20 20 30
COLUMBUS 90 66 89 65 / 5 5 5 10
GAINESVILLE 83 64 83 63 / 20 10 20 20
MACON 90 64 89 63 / 5 10 10 5
ROME 86 61 85 60 / 20 20 30 30
PEACHTREE CITY 86 60 85 62 / 5 10 10 10
VIDALIA 88 66 87 66 / 0 5 5 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...17
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1001 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
Frontal boundary draped just south of our area, extending
from southeast Kansas to along the Ohio River. Couple steady areas
of showers have been tracking through, one south of I-72 with some
isentropic lift, and one with more of a deformation zone band
closer to the northern CWA border. So far the thunder areas have
been staying out our south, and RAP guidance suggesting that
showers will continue to be the general trend through the day.
With time, the focus for precipitation will be shifting to the
southern half of the forecast area. Have sent some updates to
diminish the PoP`s across the northwest this afternoon, but have
kept likely PoP`s going most other areas. Temperatures have been
on track, with the big question whether the 60s arrive in the
southeast. Latest NAM and RAP mostly keep the front just to our
south. Although the LAMP guidance brings mid-upper 60s to
Lawrenceville, it is running about 5 degrees too warm out of the
gate. Have not adjusted highs at this time, but will monitor the
next few hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
Most of central Illinois is between two regions of precipitation
early this morning. One to the north appears to be associated with
lift resulting from a low level deformation zone in a col region of
an elongated high pressure ridge. This has brought generally light
stratiform rain from around Peoria to Danville through the
northern portions of the central Illinois forecast area. To the
south...a region of isentropic lift from northwest Missouri to
southern Illinois has brought numerous thunderstorms to that
region. The isentropic lift area is expected to lift northeastward
into central Illinois by late morning to early afternoon. However,
models indicate that the moderate MUCAPE amounts around 1500 J/kg
will remain south of central Illinois through the day, with only a
few hundred J/kg reaching southern portions of our forecast area.
As a result, will continue with likely precipitation forecast but
only as high as chance for thunderstorms. Precipitation amounts
look to remain modest today as a result of the limited
instability.
With considerable cloudiness and warm air pushing into the area
aloft, but northeasterly surface winds, it appears surface
temperatures will remain quite cool today...primarily in the upper
50s to low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
Will continue high chances of showers and possible thunderstorms
over southern half tonight into Friday while pops lower over
northern parts which eventually go dry from Rushville to Bloomington
north as 1025 mb Canadian high pressure settles into the Great Lakes
region Friday night and Saturday. Rainfall amounts today through Friday
range from near or over 1 inch SW of Effingham and Robinson in
southeast IL to near a quarter inch north of Peoria.
Lingered chances of showers over southeast IL Friday night and
Saturday while most of central IL to be dry. Below normal highs
mostly in the upper 50s Friday and Saturday. Lows tonight range
from lower 40s north to lower 50s far south along highway 50.
Patchy frost possible later Friday night north of a Galesburg to
Henry line while more widespread frost north of I-80. Dropped lows
to 37F at Galesburg Friday night while lower 40s south of Peoria.
Extended forecast models and their ensembles agree with showing a
strong full latitude upper level trof shifting eastward into the MS
river valley Tue with a cutoff low forming over the mid MS river
valley by 00Z/Wed. The ECMWF model continue to be the slowest model
while GFS is the fastest and GEM model in in between. Leaned toward
the slower ECMWF model and have increased chances of showers and
isolated thunderstorms early next week. Low pressure to deepen NE
from the southern Rockies/Plains into the Great Lakes Region Monday
night and another surface low to move up the Ohio river valley Tue.
Will see chances of showers Sunday increase to likely chances Monday
and Monday night especially over eastern/SE IL where heaviest qpf
will be. As much as 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain expected from Sun-Tue
with highest amounts near the Wabash river. Drier weather finally
returns to central/SE IL on Tue night and Wed.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
Two areas of precipitation expected to affect central IL TAF sites
today. First region extends from around KGBG-KDNV northward,
already affecting KPIA, KBMI, KCMI with light showers. Expecting
these sites should see visibility drop into MVFR category by
17-18Z, however cigs predominantly continuing VFR. Overnight, a
push of dry air from high pressure over the upper Mississippi
valley expected to end precipitation over KPIA-KBMI for improving
conditions. Second area of precipitation edging ENE-ward toward
KSPI-KDEC and should bring predominant -shra to these sites in the
next few hours, along with isolated TSRA. Predominantly VFR cigs
expected early on, but cigs/vsbys deteriorating through the day to
predominantly MVFR. This activity expected to continue through
much of the 24 hour TAF period. Winds generally NE 5-10 kts for
the next 24 hours.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
700 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM QUEBEC WILL CROSS NORTHERN AREAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
THE WEST...SOUTHWEST FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE AND
NOVA SCOTIA ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
645 AM UPDATE: BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR SIM RADAR REF OUTPUT AND THE
LATEST 06Z GFS MODEL OUTPUT...IT APPEARS SHWR ACTIVITY MAY BE A
LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD LATER THIS AFTN THEN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...
SO WE BROUGHT CHC SHWRS FURTHER S INTO N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. FCST
MID LVL STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROF MAY
RESULT IN A FEW LATE AFTN LOW TOP TSTMS.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW SHWRS ENTERING FROM QB INTO NW
ME AND THEN INTO XTRM NE ME ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER PRE-S/WV TO
THE ONE APCHG FROM SW QUEBEC LATER TDY. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE NEEDED
TO MOVE UP THE TM OF ISOLD SHWR CVRG TO THESE AREAS BY A FEW HRS.
IN REALITY...THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN SHWRS LATE THIS MORN INTO THE
MIDDAY HRS PRIOR TO THE SECOND S/WV...BUT THIS LVL OF TMG
RESOLUTION IS TO DIFFICULT TO SHOW IN THE GRIDS ATTM.
OTHERWISE...BASED ON A SLOWER TREND OF TEMP FALLS ACROSS THE
REGION ERLY THIS MORN THEN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...WE RAISED THE
CURRENT LOWS BY A DEG OR TWO F...AND THEN TRENDED THESE TEMPS AT 6
TO 7 AM TO MID MORN TEMPS.
ORGNL DISC: MODELS CONFIRMED BY SAT IMAGERY SHOW A FAST MOVG S/WV
NEAR THE CNTRL ONT/SW QUEBEC BORDER AREA ERLY THIS MORN CROSSING
NRN PTNS OF THE FA DURG THE LATE AFT HRS. SCT SHWRS FROM MID LVL
VORT ADVCN WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY BE HAVE ENOUGH INTENSITY TO
OVERCOME DRY LOW LVL AIR FOR LGT ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS TO REACH THE
GROUND FOR SPCLY NW PTNS OF THE FA FROM MID AFTN TO ERLY
EVE...WITH SRN PTNS OF THE FA EXPERIENCING JUST SOME INCREASE IN
SC CLD CVR DURG THIS TM FRAME.
AT LEAST PARTIAL CLD CVR WILL CONT ACROSS THE N OVRNGT AFT EVE
SHWRS DISSIPATE...WHILE THE REST OF THE FA EXPERIENCES CLRG.
DESPITE THIS CLRG...OVRNGT LOW TEMPS WILL BE HELD UP OVRNGT BY
MDTLY STRONG GRAD/BL WINDS...EVEN OVR THE NORMALLY COLDER NW VLYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IN STORE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A POSSIBLE
SYSTEM COULD GRAZE THE DOWNEAST COAST ON SATURDAY. MODELS DEVELOP
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THEN TRACK IT
NORTHEAST. MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE HOWEVER KEEPS THE RAIN
OFFSHORE. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY, THOUGH, THAT LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN IN FOR COASTAL DOWNEAST FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MILDER
ONSHORE FLOW THEN SETS UP MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST.
CONSIDERABLE AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OCCURS JUST
EAST OF US TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A WARM AIRMASS OVER US FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, WE WON`T REACH OUR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL
SINCE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND OFF THE COOL
WATERS. STILL, LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING
70 INLAND TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO STEADILY
INCREASE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY WORKS
ITS WAY CLOSER. A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN THE
RAIN WILL ACTUALLY GET HERE. A CUTOFF LOW MAY FORM OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WHICH MAY DELAY THE RAIN UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD...XCPT HI MVFR CLGS ATTMS OVR NRN MOST TAF
SITES...SPCLY KFVE.
SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A SMALL CHANCE
OF MVFR CEILINGS AT ANY TIME FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OVER NORTHERN
TAF SITES FROM HOULTON NORTH. ALSO, A SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR
CEILINGS FOR BAR HARBOR ON SATURDAY AS A SYSTEM GRAZES THE AREA TO
THE SOUTH.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH SCA FOR OUR OUTER MZ WATERS TDY THRU
MOST OF TNGT FOR BOTH MARGINAL WINDS AND WV HTS...MEANING THERE
MAY BE INTERMITTENT HRS WHEN EITHER OR BOTH FIELDS MAY BE BELOW
SCA THRU THIS TM. WE USED BLENDED MODEL WINDS AND ABOUT 85 TO 90
PERCENT OF FCST WW3 WV HTS...WHICH BY ITSELF HAS BEEN OVERESTIMATING
WV HTS COMPARED TO OBSVD BUOY HTS OVR THE LAST DAY OR TWO.
SHORT TERM: WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON FRIDAY TURN NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY AND DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AS A FAIRLY WEAK LOW
PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET ON FRIDAY DIMINISH TO
1 TO 2 FEET ON SATURDAY. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...VJN/FOISY
MARINE...VJN/FOISY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1035 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE REGION
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW LEVEL MEAN RIDGE CENTER OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WAS NOTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS NOTED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. FLAT
MEAN RIDGING WITH WEST NORTHWEST FLOW...WAS NOTED IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS. IT LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
850 TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS AND 925 TEMPS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS
WILL PUSH TO AROUND 90. ALSO THE BEST WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT WAS
NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS LATE THIS MORNING. THE
SHORT TERM MODELS AND WRF GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BEST LIMITED CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL BE IN THE WEST AND SOUTH FOR TODAY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE BEST IN THE WEST. ALSO THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST. SO WILL KEEP
CURRENT HIGHS AND POPS./17/
./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...435 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
FAIRLY QUIET SHORT TERM OUTSIDE DENSE FOG POSSIBILITIES WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AREA
REMAINS SOUTH OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY.
DENSE FOG IS BEING OBSERVED AT A FEW SELECT SPOTS MAINLY ALONG RIVER
VALLEYS IN FAR SOUTH MS AND WHERE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT MORE.
SOME CONTINUED HIGH CLOUD PRESENCE WILL LIKELY CURTAIL OVERALL DENSE
FOG EXTENT POSSIBILITIES FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WITH MAIN
AREA CONFINED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR IN SE MS. WILL MAINTAIN
GOING DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT A REDUCTION IN AREA ALONG THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN TIERS MAY BE NEEDED BY 6-7AM DEPENDING ON TRENDS. FOG
AND LOW STRATUS WILL MIX OUT BY 8-10AM WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LOW-LVL RIDGING WILL BE EAST OF REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON AND AID IN
S/SW WIND FETCH BRINGING 1.5-1.6" PWATS BACK INTO REGION. THIS ABOVE
NORMAL MOISTURE (+1.5 SD) WILL COMBINE WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN SW/S MS AND NE LA.
EAST AREAS WILL LIKELY HAVE TOO LOW OF A MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COMBO
TO SUPPORT ACTIVITY. EXPECT A QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS
DISSIPATING BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
FRIDAY MORNING AND TRENDS WILL NEED TO MONITORED FOR DENSE
POSSIBILITIES. SLIGHTLY GREATER SHOWER AND WEAK THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SLIDES SOUTH TOWARDS THE
I-40 CORRIDOR IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING WINDS ALOFT. GREATER
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL PICK UP IN FAR NW AREAS
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS STRONGER TROUGHING AND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PIVOT OVER AR/TN WHERE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF RAIN WILL BE SITUATED.
FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS...LOWS WHERE BUMPED UP THIS MORNING GIVEN HIGH
CLOUDS AND MAVMOS LOW TEMPS WERE INCREASED BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
GIVEN NWP DEWPOINT FIELDS. MAVMOS POPS WERE INCREASED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN HI-RES WRF AND HRRR OUTPUT. /ALLEN/
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS BY MID NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE IS QUITE A
SPREAD IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SPLIT FLOW
REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY WITH A SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH
UPSTREAM OF OUR CWA AND A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A 1024MB HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST FROM THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION NUDGING THE
BOUNDARY A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR CWA. THE BOUNDARY WILL SAG
INTO OUR CWA WHILE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. A RATHER MOIST
AIRMASS WITH PWS AROUND 1.70IN WILL RESIDE OVER OUR CWA AND SERVE TO
FUEL CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO SUNDAY. A RETREATING SURFACE
RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST AND MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES.
GREATEST POPS WILL BE CARRIED OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA
THROUGH SUNDAY. RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
INSOLATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE 00Z GFS MOS TEMPERATURES WERE AMONG
THE WARMEST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SO GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE LEANED TOWARD
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A POTENT
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST CONUS
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS DIFFERS FROM THE ECMWF IN CLOSING OFF A LOW OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF CLOSES OFF
A LOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO
GROWING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ATLEAST OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT TWO TO FOUR
INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL OVER OUR NORTHWEST DURING THIS TIME AND DUE
TO ANTICIPATED STRONG KINEMATIC FIELDS...DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE GFS MAY BE A LITTLE FAST IN MOVING THE
ACTIVITY INTO OUR CWA AND SLOWER TIMING WILL RESULT IN LESS
INSTABILITY. WL HOLD OFF INTRODUCING MENTION IN HWO TONIGHT. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA TUESDAY AND THE RAIN SHOULD BE
OVER BY MIDNIGHT. GFS MOS TEMPERATURES WERE AMONG THE COOLEST
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE LEANED
TOWARD A SLOWER TROUGH PROGRESSION OF THE ECMWF AND WARMER GFS
ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURES THOUGH THIS PERIOD. MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR
NORTHEAST FOR WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY. /22/
&&
..AVIATION...THE FOG/LOW STRATUS IS BURNING OFF THIS AM AND LOOK FOR
VFR CONDITIONS TO EXIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THERE WILL BE SOME ISO SHRA ACROSS THE SW PORTIONS...BUT
THE REST OF THE AREA LOOK TO BE PRECIP FREE. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME FOG. THE
FOG LOOKS TO BE CONFIDED TO THE FAR E/SE (HBG/MEI) WHILE THE REST OF
THE AREA LOOKS TO GET MORE INTO THE IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 08-15Z FRI.
/CME/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 90 69 88 69 / 10 10 16 20
MERIDIAN 90 67 89 67 / 10 10 15 17
VICKSBURG 90 70 88 68 / 18 10 18 23
HATTIESBURG 90 68 90 68 / 19 10 14 14
NATCHEZ 87 71 86 69 / 29 10 19 14
GREENVILLE 90 70 87 67 / 16 12 24 50
GREENWOOD 90 68 87 66 / 10 14 24 43
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
17/ALLEN/22/CME
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
915 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
.UPDATE...HAVE ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AND HAVE
REMOVED MORNING FOG FROM THE GRIDS THE REST OF FORECAST SEEMS TO BE
ON TRACK./17/
./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...435 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
FAIRLY QUIET SHORT TERM OUTSIDE DENSE FOG POSSIBILITIES WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AREA
REMAINS SOUTH OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY.
DENSE FOG IS BEING OBSERVED AT A FEW SELECT SPOTS MAINLY ALONG RIVER
VALLEYS IN FAR SOUTH MS AND WHERE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT MORE.
SOME CONTINUED HIGH CLOUD PRESENCE WILL LIKELY CURTAIL OVERALL DENSE
FOG EXTENT POSSIBILITIES FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WITH MAIN
AREA CONFINED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR IN SE MS. WILL MAINTAIN
GOING DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT A REDUCTION IN AREA ALONG THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN TIERS MAY BE NEEDED BY 6-7AM DEPENDING ON TRENDS. FOG
AND LOW STRATUS WILL MIX OUT BY 8-10AM WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LOW-LVL RIDGING WILL BE EAST OF REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON AND AID IN
S/SW WIND FETCH BRINGING 1.5-1.6" PWATS BACK INTO REGION. THIS ABOVE
NORMAL MOISTURE (+1.5 SD) WILL COMBINE WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN SW/S MS AND NE LA.
EAST AREAS WILL LIKELY HAVE TOO LOW OF A MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COMBO
TO SUPPORT ACTIVITY. EXPECT A QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS
DISSIPATING BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
FRIDAY MORNING AND TRENDS WILL NEED TO MONITORED FOR DENSE
POSSIBILITIES. SLIGHTLY GREATER SHOWER AND WEAK THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SLIDES SOUTH TOWARDS THE
I-40 CORRIDOR IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING WINDS ALOFT. GREATER
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL PICK UP IN FAR NW AREAS
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS STRONGER TROUGHING AND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PIVOT OVER AR/TN WHERE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF RAIN WILL BE SITUATED.
FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS...LOWS WHERE BUMPED UP THIS MORNING GIVEN HIGH
CLOUDS AND MAVMOS LOW TEMPS WERE INCREASED BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
GIVEN NWP DEWPOINT FIELDS. MAVMOS POPS WERE INCREASED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN HI-RES WRF AND HRRR OUTPUT. /ALLEN/
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS BY MID NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE IS QUITE A
SPREAD IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SPLIT FLOW
REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY WITH A SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH
UPSTREAM OF OUR CWA AND A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A 1024MB HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST FROM THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION NUDGING THE
BOUNDARY A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR CWA. THE BOUNDARY WILL SAG
INTO OUR CWA WHILE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. A RATHER MOIST
AIRMASS WITH PWS AROUND 1.70IN WILL RESIDE OVER OUR CWA AND SERVE TO
FUEL CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO SUNDAY. A RETREATING SURFACE
RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST AND MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES.
GREATEST POPS WILL BE CARRIED OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA
THROUGH SUNDAY. RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
INSOLATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE 00Z GFS MOS TEMPERATURES WERE AMONG
THE WARMEST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SO GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE LEANED TOWARD
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A POTENT
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST CONUS
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS DIFFERS FROM THE ECMWF IN CLOSING OFF A LOW OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF CLOSES OFF
A LOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO
GROWING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ATLEAST OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT TWO TO FOUR
INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL OVER OUR NORTHWEST DURING THIS TIME AND DUE
TO ANTICIPATED STRONG KINEMATIC FIELDS...DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE GFS MAY BE A LITTLE FAST IN MOVING THE
ACTIVITY INTO OUR CWA AND SLOWER TIMING WILL RESULT IN LESS
INSTABILITY. WL HOLD OFF INTRODUCING MENTION IN HWO TONIGHT. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA TUESDAY AND THE RAIN SHOULD BE
OVER BY MIDNIGHT. GFS MOS TEMPERATURES WERE AMONG THE COOLEST
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE LEANED
TOWARD A SLOWER TROUGH PROGRESSION OF THE ECMWF AND WARMER GFS
ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURES THOUGH THIS PERIOD. MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR
NORTHEAST FOR WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY. /22/
&&
.AVIATION...FOG WAS LIFTING AS OF MIDMORNING. A FEW SHRA EXPECTED
THIS AFTN BUT BEST AREAS WILL BE IN SW MS AND NE LA EARLY TO
LATE AFTERNOON. 17/ALLEN/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 90 69 88 69 / 10 10 16 20
MERIDIAN 90 67 89 67 / 10 10 15 17
VICKSBURG 90 70 88 68 / 18 10 18 23
HATTIESBURG 90 68 90 68 / 19 10 14 14
NATCHEZ 87 71 86 69 / 29 10 19 14
GREENVILLE 90 70 87 67 / 16 12 24 50
GREENWOOD 90 68 87 66 / 10 14 24 43
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
17/ALLEN/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
936 AM MDT THU OCT 9 2014
.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW MORE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. RADAR SHOWED A BAND/AREA OF WEAK SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
THE NW AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. POTENT SHORTWAVE
WAS SEEN OVER ID MOVING INTO MT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SPREADING
LIFT INTO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...RIGHT-
REAR QUADRANT OF UPPER JET AND LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WERE
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT OVER THE REGION. NONE OF THE MODELS HAD
A GOOD HANDLE ON WHERE THE PRECIPITATION WAS OCCURRING THIS
MORNING. THE ECMWF WAS THE CLOSEST...IN THAT IT SPREAD A BAND OF
QPF SE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA THROUGH 18Z. GIVEN THE
ABOVE...HAVE BLENDED POPS WITH RADAR TRENDS AND THE ECMWF FORECAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAP MODEL SHOWED LIFTED INDICES FALLING
BELOW ZERO DEGREES C OVER WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. KLVM
BUFKIT SOUNDING FROM 06Z WRF SHOWED SOME INSTABILITY IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES SO HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER IN THESE
AREAS. REMOVED THUNDER FROM KSHR AREA WHICH LOOKED TOO STABLE.
MODELS HAD THE JET ENERGY EXITING THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER JET
FURTHER N THAT COULD STILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. THE SHORTWAVE
WILL STILL BE MOVING SLOWLY E THROUGH THE AREA WHILE
WEAKENING...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THESE FACTORS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TODAY DUE TO LIMITED MIXING...CLOUD
COVER AND LATEST MET GUIDANCE. ARTHUR
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A DECENT SHORT
WAVE IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. POTENTIAL VORTICITY PROGGS HAVE A 2-4 PVU
CENTER CROSSING OUR AREA AND APPEARS TO GENERATE A GOOD POCKET OF
Q VECTOR FORCING. THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE ADDED BENEFIT OF AN
EASTERLY SURFACE WIND SO DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS ARE MITIGATED. THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW SATURATED LEVELS ARE RATHER HIGH
ABOVE 650 MB. COMING DOWN THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE RIDGE ALSO SEEMS
TO WEAKEN THE SHORT WAVE A BIT. THEREFORE...I EXPECT TO SEE SOME
RADAR RETURNS BUT AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL HOW MUCH MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. SO WHILE I HAVE INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE
OF POPS...I HAVE ALSO KEPT THEM ON THE LOW SIDE. THERE ALSO SEEMS
TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CONTINUE INCLUDING A MENTION OF
THUNDER ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
FOR FRIDAY...SOME WEAK ENERGY WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND HAVE CONTINUED TO LINGER POPS OVER OUR SOUTHEAST WITH JUST
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY
OVERALL WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. BT
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
SATURDAY LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG JET BEGINS PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST MONTANA CAUSING STRONG LEESIDE TROUGHING ALL THE WAY
THROUGH WYOMING WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHED INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING A WINDY AND WARM DAY WITH WINDS
EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION AND NOT NECESSARILY FAVORING GAP FLOW
AREAS. COLD FRONT TRACKS INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS
WITH THE AIRMASS MOISTENING UP POST FRONTAL. CYCLONIC FLOW
ALREADY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT SO THE WINDOW FOR
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS PRETTY FLEETING AND DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF A
LIVINGSTON TO RED LODGE TO BROADUS LINE. SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER BUT
STILL NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
BY MONDAY NEXT RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH LEESIDE
TROFFING BY TUESDAY BRINING ANOTHER SHOT AT THE 70S. RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY BUT NEXT TROUGH PASSAGE
THROUGH THE AREA LOOKS TO BE SLOWER AND NOT AS DEEP AS CURRENT
SYSTEM SO TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
BORSUM
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION
TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT LOCALIZED MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS. AAG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060 042/065 049/071 045/057 038/056 040/062 046/066
2/W 21/B 01/B 22/W 11/B 11/N 11/U
LVM 063 039/068 044/068 040/054 034/056 038/064 040/059
2/T 21/B 04/W 32/W 21/B 11/N 21/B
HDN 065 040/067 045/074 042/061 035/059 037/066 044/071
2/W 21/B 01/B 32/W 21/B 11/N 11/U
MLS 062 039/067 045/072 043/062 036/058 036/066 043/069
2/W 21/B 01/B 11/B 21/B 11/N 11/U
4BQ 060 041/066 045/073 043/058 035/055 034/065 043/069
2/W 32/W 01/B 42/W 21/U 11/B 11/U
BHK 056 034/059 042/070 040/059 033/053 032/060 040/066
0/B 11/B 11/B 21/N 21/U 11/N 11/U
SHR 064 041/067 042/073 039/054 032/055 029/064 041/068
2/W 21/B 01/B 43/W 21/B 11/U 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
928 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...AND GRADUALLY
MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
SATURDAY AND STALL TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABLE TO RISE INTO FORECAST VALUES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S BY
AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...WEAKENING SFC RIDGE WILL BE OVER AREA
TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS ALOFT. DRY AIR MASS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO LOWER 50S INLAND WHILE
WARM WATER TEMPS KEEP COAST 60-65.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM THU...SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY FRI AS A
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES OFFSHORE WHILE ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FRI AND
SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AND HAVE
MAINTAINED MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI INTO FRI EVENING. THE
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NC SAT INTO SAT
NIGHT. 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF/NAM COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
PUSHING THE FRONT ACROSS THE CWA LATE SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING AND STALLING NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR LATE SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN. MODELS NOT OVERLY WET WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL KEEP POPS
IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST SAT NIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES WEST-SOUTHWEST SAT HELPING TO TRANSPORT ADDITIONAL MOISTURE.
THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO WASHOUT SUN INTO MON. WILL CONTINUE A DRYING
TREND SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NOSES SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC...ALTHOUGH WITH ONSHORE FLOW CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FRI AND SAT WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES BUILDING
1390-1400 METERS...THEN NEAR NORMAL SUN WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER THICKNESSES. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 80S
FRI AND SAT WITH MID TO UPPER 70S SUN WARMING BACK TO NEAR 80S MON.
SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHEASTERLY TUES INTO WED AS A ROBUST UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE LOW WILL PUSH NORTHEAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC SOMETIME
TUES NIGHT INTO WED. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL ENS MEMBERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING A
CUT-OFF LOW TO THE WEST WHICH WILL HAVE TIMING IMPLICATIONS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE LIMIT POPS TO
30-40 PERCENT TUES AFTERNOON INTO WED. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL AGAIN PUSH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY TUES WITH
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES BUILDING 1390-1400 METERS...THEN NEAR NORMAL
WED AS THICKNESSES LOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE LOWER 80S TUES WITH MID TO UPPER 70S WED.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AND WEAK HIGH PRES
WITH CAA IS BUILDING IN FROM NW. HIGH CLOUDS WITH WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE DURING FCST PERIOD. LIGHT N TO NE WINDS TODAY
AND NEAR CALM TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER AREA TONIGHT
WITH VFR CONTINUING BUT GDNC INDICATES ATMOS TOO DRY FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 4 AM THU...PREDOMINANT VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR/IFR FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OR
SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A WEAK SURFACE-BASED
INVERSION. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIP...HOWEVER
SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER THE
SOUNDS. SEAS ARE 4 TO 5 FEET...ALTHOUGH THE BUOY 10 MILES
NORTHEAST OF DUCK BRIEFLY REPORTED 6 FEET LAST HOUR. TRENDS IN THE
3KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS ARE FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 3
HOURS OR SO...DROPPING OFF TO 10-15 KNOTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL VEER TO NE AND DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS BY EVENING.
SFC HIGH WILL BE OVER AREA THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING VEERING WINDS WITH SPEEDS LESS
THAN 10 KT.
SEAS SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 4 AM THU...HIGH PRES WILL PULL OFFSHORE FRI ALLOWING WINDS TO
SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH S/SW WIND INCREASING UP TO
15 KT. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH TIMING AND JUST HOW FAR
THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER 00Z OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF/NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FROPA LATE SAT AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WITH N/NE WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT...AND UP TO 20 KT IN THE
NAM MODEL. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASHOUT LATE SUN WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING MON. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT FRI INTO
SAT..THEN BUILD UP TO 4 FT LATE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE OUTER
WATERS SAT THROUGH MON.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JBM/SK
MARINE...CTC/JBM/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
728 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2014
.AVIATION...
VLIFR CONDITIONS AT TYS AND CHA DUE TO FOG AND LOW-CLOUDS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 14Z. AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST KENTUCKY IS MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST.
LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS THIS AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO EAST
TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT CHA AND TYS. HAVE KEEP VCTS
AND VCSH BETWEEN 17-22Z.
A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IN THE EVENING...BUT MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1019 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
AN ANALYSIS OF THE 12Z SURFACE AND UPPER LEVELS SHOWED A CAPPED
AIRMASS OVER MOST OF SE TEXAS...WITH THE FAR EASTERN SET OF
COUNTIES LESS CAPPED. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE
THROUGH 700 MB. AT 500 MB...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING EASTWARD
OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND WAS SHOWN BY THE WATER VAPOR TO BE
MOVING OVER THE COUNTIES NEAR THE SABINE AT 10 AM. A RIDGE WAS
OVERHEAD AT 300 AND 200 MB WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND
EAST OF LIBERTY AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES THROUGHOUT TODAY.
ACTUALLY...THE HRRR VERIFIED WELL AND ONLY BROUGHT ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER AREAS WEST OF THE COLORADO RIVER THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...AND INTO THE COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WAS
BETTER COVERAGE ON THE ARW AND NMM...HOWEVER THESE WERE ISOLATED
AS WELL.
PW/S ON THE 12Z UPPER AIR OBSERVED SOUNDINGS RANGED FROM 1.2 AT
KFWD...1.3 AT KSHV...AND 1.6 AT KLCH AND KCRP. THE NAMBUFR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD REACH BETWEEN 90
AND 92 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 90 72 91 73 84 / 20 10 20 20 60
HOUSTON (IAH) 91 74 90 73 87 / 20 10 20 10 50
GALVESTON (GLS) 87 78 87 77 86 / 20 10 20 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...47
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
621 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT BOTH TERMINALS. THERE MAY BE SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
JORDAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014/
SHORT TERM...
00Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A TIGHT
CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION EXTENDED ACROSS ARIZONA INTO
NEW MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE TROF WAS LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. SURFACE WIND REMAINED OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WHICH WAS SLOWLY PULLING IN HIGHER LEVELS OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWS AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
MOVING NORTHEAST BUT CURRENT TRAJECTORY SHOWS THAT THESE SHOULD
SKIRT JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
MODELS KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE BETTER PART OF TODAY WITH HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA. THE HRRR IS THE ONLY
MODEL WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THE MORNING CONVECTION AND
KEEPS IT OUT OF THE AREA SO WILL KEEP THE FIRST 6-HOUR WINDOW OF THE
FORECAST DRY. THERE WERE A FEW MODELS THAT INDICATED SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AT
VARIOUS TIMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LOOKING AT
THE DETAILS...MOST OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR AREAS OF FORECAST
CONVECTION SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE A PRETTY STOUT CAP IN PLACE WITH
LIMITED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ALOFT. IN ADDITION...THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA AS A 50 TO 70
KNOT JET MOVES OVERHEAD PLACING THE LEFT EXIT REGION WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND...REMOVED LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL AGAIN BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AS
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE DAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH TOWARDS THE
AREA. THE FRONT IS NOT FORECAST TO MAKE IT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE BUT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
AND BROAD SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE WHICH MAY HELP
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
AND COVERAGE NOT VERY WIDESPREAD INITIALLY BUT COVERAGE MAY INCREASE
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE THE GREATEST BUT RELATIVELY COOLER ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
JORDAN
LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS FOCUSED ON TWO COLD FRONTS AND TWO
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
THE INITIAL EXCITEMENT WILL KICK OFF THE LONG TERM ON FRIDAY AS A
SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING
POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONVERGE ON THE SOUTH PLAINS.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NWP REGARDING THE
SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE NAM ON THE FAST SIDE PUSHING THE
FRONT THROUGH THE CWA BETWEEN 12 AND 21Z...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
IS ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS SLOWER. WE HAVE TENDED TO FAVOR THE CONSENSUS
OF SOLUTIONS...MEANING A LATER FROPA...THOUGH THIS IS SUBJECT TO
CHANGE...ESPECIALLY IF OUTFLOWS FROM POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION TO OUR
NORTH CAN GIVE THE FRONT AN EXTRA BOOST. THE FRONT TIMING/LOCATION
WILL BE CRITICAL AS MORE STABLE /COOLER AND DRIER/ AIR WILL QUICKLY
MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND LIMIT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY. GIVEN THE
PREFERRED SLOWER SOLUTION...IT STILL APPEARS THE SOUTHERN ZONES
WILL STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH PEAK HEATING WHICH COULD SET
THE STAGE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...PWATS NEAR 1.5
INCHES WILL PROMOTE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...THOUGH RELATIVELY
QUICK STORM MOTIONS AND THE SOUTHWARD SHIFTING FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIMIT THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION. THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
WELL...THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE MUTED SOMEWHAT WITH
LESS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WE HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE HIGH
CHANCE CATEGORY THERE...TAPERING BACK TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT TOWARD
THE TX/NM STATE LINE. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS...THOUGH THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS
WELL TO THE SOUTH AND THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES OFF TO THE EAST.
SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE DRY...BUT IT WILL START OUT CLOUDY AND
COOL WITH A NORTHERLY BREEZE. THE CLOUDS WILL EVENTUAL BREAK THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY PEAK IN THE 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 70S WHERE THE SUN APPEARS EARLIEST. IN
CONTRAST...SUNDAY WILL BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL BOOST HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S. THIS
WARM UP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A STRONG JET DIVING THROUGH THE WEST
CARVES OUT A SHARP BUT PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE NATION. A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG A DIFFUSE DRYLINE IN
ADVANCE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BETTER/DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE CWA BY PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...THE STRONG UPPER
JET AND ASSOCIATED DPVA ALONG WITH OUR NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SO ONLY
LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS NARROW
PRECIPITATION WINDOW. DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER FROM THE
WEST.
AFTER THE WARM AND BREEZY SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
MAKE IT TO THE 70 DEGREE MARK MONDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL
FOLLOW AS THE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD THOUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...THOUGH COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH A DRY
ATMOSPHERE RESIDE IN THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 83 54 67 41 68 / 10 20 40 20 0
TULIA 84 54 69 44 68 / 10 20 40 30 10
PLAINVIEW 83 62 71 46 68 / 10 20 30 30 10
LEVELLAND 84 60 75 46 70 / 0 20 20 30 10
LUBBOCK 84 64 75 49 68 / 0 20 20 40 10
DENVER CITY 85 61 78 49 71 / 0 20 10 20 10
BROWNFIELD 86 61 77 49 70 / 0 20 20 30 10
CHILDRESS 87 65 74 50 68 / 10 20 50 40 10
SPUR 86 64 78 49 69 / 0 10 40 40 10
ASPERMONT 88 68 81 51 69 / 0 10 40 50 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
219 PM MDT THU OCT 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU OCT 9 2014
NOT MUCH ADJUSTMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL TRACK OF THE STORM
SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CO TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST QG
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER WILL BE OVER SRN
COLORADO. THERE IS A DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AT THIS
TIME...WHICH IS NOT ONLY AFFECTING THE PALMER DIVIDE BUT THE
FOOTHILLS OF BOULDER AND LARIMER COUNTIES AS WELL. THE DIFFLUENT
FLOW AT 500 MB IS ALSO AIDING THIS SYSTEM. THE HRRR AS WELL AS THE
RUC KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING THROUGH 00Z IN ZONE 35...THEN THE FOCUS
FOR PCPN WILL BE OVER THE SRN PART OF THE CWA. THERE COULD BE SOME
MINOR ISSUES REGARDING FLOODING IN THE HIGH PARK BURN AREA THIS
AFTN IF THE STRONGER CONVECTION CAN MAINTAIN ITSELF. SO FAR THAT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE HAPPENING. SHOULD SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF CWA...WEST OF A LINE FROM CHEYENNE, WY TO
AKRON LINE...BUT LIMITED COVERAGE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LINE. THE
PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. IN AROUND
DENVER...THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE THE FOCUS SHIFTS MORE TO THE SOUTH. IN THE
MOUNTAINS...EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH VERY MOIST AMS WILL BENEFIT ZONE
34 THOSE MOST SO WL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 9 AM
FRIDAY MORNING. ON FRIDAY...THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY THE AFTN...WITH DRYING FM THE NORTH
AND WEST. THE AMS WILL REMAIN COOL WHICH WILL CAP TSTMS OVER THE
NERN PLAINS...EXCEPT MAYBE ZONES 41...46 AND 47.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU OCT 9 2014
...WET AND COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW...
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING LEAVING SOME RESIDUAL
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION AND SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP LIKELY
POPS AND CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH MOISTURE AND INCREASED
LAPSE RATES STILL ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY GETTING INTO THE UPPER 50S OVER
NE COLORADO. SATURDAY WILL SEE INCREASED UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW BRING
IN WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS BOUNCING BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.
SUNDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE OVER THE REGION WITH
AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT IN NW FLOW ALOFT. QG HAS GOOD VERTICAL
LIFT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WITH DECENT OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE FLOW
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING THAT WILL AID IN ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOWERS ABOVE 10000FT IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION JUST
BEFORE THE AFTERNOON INCREASING NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ALLOWING
FOR GOOD RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS OVER THE FRONT RANGE. WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS DECREASE TO BELOW 9000 FT ACCORDING TO VARIOUS MODELS
ALONG WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES SO THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS ALONG WITH
THE PALMER DIVIDE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY
WITH LOWER TEMPS IN THOSE AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR SUNDAY WITH LOWS JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID 30S.
ON MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE SE WITH MOISTURE
LINGERING IN THE MOUNTAINS KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE DOMINANT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE BRINGING DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU OCT 9 2014
MVFR VSBYS...WITH MVFR/IFR CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. COULD SEE ISOLD T AT CENTENNIAL...BUT WL STICK
WITH PREVAILING LGT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE TAFS.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST BY FRIDAY AFTN...BUT LINGERING ILS/MVFR CIGS STILL
EXPECTED IN THE AFTN.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM MDT
FRIDAY FOR COZ034.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...COOPER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1232 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
249 AM CDT
//SHORT TERM...
TODAY...
THIS MORNING...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES SOUTHEAST ACROSS ILLINOIS AND TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER OKLAHOMA WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI BUT LESS DEFINED
FARTHER EAST INTO ILLINOIS. RAIN IS ALREADY IN PLACE NORTH OF THE
FRONT ACROSS IOWA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS ASSOCIATED WITH A CORRIDOR
OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY STAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A RFD TO VPZ
LINE...AND AS THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...THE AXIS OF FORCING SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTH ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION. ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR BY AROUND MIDDAY WITH DEEP
MIXING TAPPING INTO DRY AIR ALOFT. DEW POINTS YESTERDAY MIXED INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S AND EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY FOR AREAS
THAT CLEAR OUT EARLY ENOUGH. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.
TONIGHT...A MODEST GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A LIGHT NORTH WIND
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT SOME THIN CIRRUS MAY
BE OVER THE AREA WHICH COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT WINDS WILL TO SOME
DEGREE INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. STILL...TEMPS OVER FAR NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS ARE PROGGED TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS...ITS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT IF THERE
WILL BE A WIDESPREAD FROST SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AND LET
DAY CREW REASSESS. THIS WOULD BE CONFINED TO A FEW COUNTIES OVER
FAR NORTH CENTRAL IL WEST OF THE FOX RIVER VALLEY. ELSEWHERE CLOUD
COVER WILL BE THICKER HELPING PROP TEMPERATURES UP RESULTING IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 40S.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY SHUNTING
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BACK SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE REMAIN
LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80 DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
A NOD TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SURFACE
LOW OVER ARKLATEX AND A SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH POSITIONING OF THE
WARM FRONT COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS. ALSO...GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME VERY
MODEST DIURNAL INSTABILITY OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY THANKS TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WHILE SOUNDINGS PAINT
A FAIRLY DRY COLUMN...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH IN
OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN AND
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AND SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR ALLOWING FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE RIDGE AXIS.
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WEST OF THE FOX
RIVER VALLEY WHERE THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE AT FROST...AND MID TO
UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH THE
HIGH CENTERED OVER FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.
//LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
PATTERN IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY STARTING LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS POTENT
UPPER WAVE DIGS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CARVES OUT A TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS SOUTH INTO TEXAS BY LATE MONDAY. SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED
TO DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST. FOR
NOW THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN A SURFACE LOW TRACK NEAR OR
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH
TIMING AND MAGNITUDE REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT DOES APPEAR GIVEN THE
TRACK THAT WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SOMETIME
DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT APPEARING TO BE
THE BEST CHANCE WITH DRIER WEATHER THEN EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* WHETHER A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL PENETRATE INLAND FAR ENOUGH
TO TURN WINDS NELY.
* CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS FRIDAY.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
PERSISTENT DEEP LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NRN QUEBEC WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE EDGES OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALSO OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS HAS SET UP WEAK PRESSURE
FIELD OVER NRN IL/IN/SRN LAKE MICHIGAN. THE RESULTANT WEAK
GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED FOR A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY TO FORM...AND PER
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...HAS PUSHED INLAND INTO COOK COUNTY IL AND
LAKE COUNTY IN. WITH TEMPERATURES ON LAND AND OVER THE LAKE FAIRLY
SIMILAR...THERE IS NOT MUCH PUSH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND THERE IS
SOME CONCERN HOW FAR INLAND THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH.
THE LATEST HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH INLAND OF MDW BY 22Z TURNING WINDS TO NELY...BUT NOT REACH
ORD UNTIL 23Z. THERE IS ALSO SOME INDICATION THAT THE BOUNDARY MAY
WASH OUT BEFORE ORD HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO TURN NELY...WITH WINDS
REMAINING NLY-NNWLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN EITHER
CASE...WHETHER THE BOUNDARY PUSHES INLAND OF ORD...ANTICIPATE THAT
WIND SPEEDS WILL MAX OUT AT 7-8KT.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST...WITH THE AXIS OF THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE LINING UP
ACROSS SRN WI AND SRN LAKE MICHIGAN...SETTING UP A LARGE SCALE
NELY PRESSURE GRADIENT DURG THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL SET
UP A FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LEADING TO MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH PERSISTENT NELY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.
WITH THE NELY FLOW REPRESENTATIVE OF THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN...RATHER THAN A LAKE BREEZE...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE A
LITTLE STRONGER...REACHING 10KT...OR PERHAPS A LITTLE HIGHER...BY
LATE MORNING. NELY WINDS ARND 10KT AND MVFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST AT
LEAST INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE LAKE BREEZE PUSHING INLAND OF
MDW BY ARND 22Z.
* LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE LAKE BREEZE PUSHING INLAND OF
ORD.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHEAST
WINDS.
SUNDAY...CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MVFR. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS.
MONDAY...RAIN LIKELY AT TIMES ALONG WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...WEST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
204 AM CDT
THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
CANADA THIS WEEK WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN
QUEBEC TODAY AND TONIGHT. ONE LAST WEAK COLD FRONT EMANATING
FROM THIS WILL TRAVERSE DOWN THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS TO BRING ONSHORE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON
FRIDAY IN THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE THAT
IS OVER THE UPPER PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN LAKES ON SATURDAY AND THEN DEPART OFF TO THE EAST BY
EARLY SUNDAY. AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES ON SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ENVELOP THE LAKE
INTO MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS
PRESENTLY FORECAST TO PASS THE LAKE SOMETIME MONDAY AFTERNOON OR
NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FEATURE.
THIS WOULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY DICTATE THE DEGREE OF THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION SURGE AND WINDS BEHIND ITS PASSAGE. RIGHT NOW THIS DOES
NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG...MORE IN THE 15-25 KT TYPE RANGE.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1230 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
Frontal boundary draped just south of our area, extending
from southeast Kansas to along the Ohio River. Couple steady areas
of showers have been tracking through, one south of I-72 with some
isentropic lift, and one with more of a deformation zone band
closer to the northern CWA border. So far the thunder areas have
been staying out our south, and RAP guidance suggesting that
showers will continue to be the general trend through the day.
With time, the focus for precipitation will be shifting to the
southern half of the forecast area. Have sent some updates to
diminish the PoP`s across the northwest this afternoon, but have
kept likely PoP`s going most other areas. Temperatures have been
on track, with the big question whether the 60s arrive in the
southeast. Latest NAM and RAP mostly keep the front just to our
south. Although the LAMP guidance brings mid-upper 60s to
Lawrenceville, it is running about 5 degrees too warm out of the
gate. Have not adjusted highs at this time, but will monitor the
next few hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
Most of central Illinois is between two regions of precipitation
early this morning. One to the north appears to be associated with
lift resulting from a low level deformation zone in a col region of
an elongated high pressure ridge. This has brought generally light
stratiform rain from around Peoria to Danville through the
northern portions of the central Illinois forecast area. To the
south...a region of isentropic lift from northwest Missouri to
southern Illinois has brought numerous thunderstorms to that
region. The isentropic lift area is expected to lift northeastward
into central Illinois by late morning to early afternoon. However,
models indicate that the moderate MUCAPE amounts around 1500 J/kg
will remain south of central Illinois through the day, with only a
few hundred J/kg reaching southern portions of our forecast area.
As a result, will continue with likely precipitation forecast but
only as high as chance for thunderstorms. Precipitation amounts
look to remain modest today as a result of the limited
instability.
With considerable cloudiness and warm air pushing into the area
aloft, but northeasterly surface winds, it appears surface
temperatures will remain quite cool today...primarily in the upper
50s to low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
Will continue high chances of showers and possible thunderstorms
over southern half tonight into Friday while pops lower over
northern parts which eventually go dry from Rushville to Bloomington
north as 1025 mb Canadian high pressure settles into the Great Lakes
region Friday night and Saturday. Rainfall amounts today through Friday
range from near or over 1 inch SW of Effingham and Robinson in
southeast IL to near a quarter inch north of Peoria.
Lingered chances of showers over southeast IL Friday night and
Saturday while most of central IL to be dry. Below normal highs
mostly in the upper 50s Friday and Saturday. Lows tonight range
from lower 40s north to lower 50s far south along highway 50.
Patchy frost possible later Friday night north of a Galesburg to
Henry line while more widespread frost north of I-80. Dropped lows
to 37F at Galesburg Friday night while lower 40s south of Peoria.
Extended forecast models and their ensembles agree with showing a
strong full latitude upper level trof shifting eastward into the MS
river valley Tue with a cutoff low forming over the mid MS river
valley by 00Z/Wed. The ECMWF model continue to be the slowest model
while GFS is the fastest and GEM model in in between. Leaned toward
the slower ECMWF model and have increased chances of showers and
isolated thunderstorms early next week. Low pressure to deepen NE
from the southern Rockies/Plains into the Great Lakes Region Monday
night and another surface low to move up the Ohio river valley Tue.
Will see chances of showers Sunday increase to likely chances Monday
and Monday night especially over eastern/SE IL where heaviest qpf
will be. As much as 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain expected from Sun-Tue
with highest amounts near the Wabash river. Drier weather finally
returns to central/SE IL on Tue night and Wed.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
Have made some significant adjustments to the TAFs for the next
24 hours. Most of the shower activity has moved out at midday,
with just some lingering -SHRA from KDEC-KCMI. Removed mention of
thunder as greatest instability expected to remain well to the
south. There is a narrow band of IFR conditions on the northern
edge of the shower area, so have included some mention of this at
KBMI/KCMI for the first couple hours of the new TAFs. Otherwise,
largely VFR conditions on tap through evening. Toward 06Z, another
surge of showers is projected by most of the models to spread
northeast into central Illinois. However, the KSPI-KCMI corridor
looks to be the northern fringe. Have mentioned some MVFR
visibilities for a few hours late night with this rain, but kept
it VFR further north. Northeast winds to prevail at all TAF sites
through the period, picking up some in speed Friday morning.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1105 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
249 AM CDT
//SHORT TERM...
TODAY...
THIS MORNING...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES SOUTHEAST ACROSS ILLINOIS AND TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER OKLAHOMA WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI BUT LESS DEFINED
FARTHER EAST INTO ILLINOIS. RAIN IS ALREADY IN PLACE NORTH OF THE
FRONT ACROSS IOWA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS ASSOCIATED WITH A CORRIDOR
OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY STAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A RFD TO VPZ
LINE...AND AS THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...THE AXIS OF FORCING SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTH ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION. ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR BY AROUND MIDDAY WITH DEEP
MIXING TAPPING INTO DRY AIR ALOFT. DEW POINTS YESTERDAY MIXED INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S AND EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY FOR AREAS
THAT CLEAR OUT EARLY ENOUGH. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.
TONIGHT...A MODEST GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A LIGHT NORTH WIND
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT SOME THIN CIRRUS MAY
BE OVER THE AREA WHICH COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT WINDS WILL TO SOME
DEGREE INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. STILL...TEMPS OVER FAR NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS ARE PROGGED TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS...ITS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT IF THERE
WILL BE A WIDESPREAD FROST SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AND LET
DAY CREW REASSESS. THIS WOULD BE CONFINED TO A FEW COUNTIES OVER
FAR NORTH CENTRAL IL WEST OF THE FOX RIVER VALLEY. ELSEWHERE CLOUD
COVER WILL BE THICKER HELPING PROP TEMPERATURES UP RESULTING IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 40S.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY SHUNTING
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BACK SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE REMAIN
LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80 DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
A NOD TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SURFACE
LOW OVER ARKLATEX AND A SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH POSITIONING OF THE
WARM FRONT COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS. ALSO...GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME VERY
MODEST DIURNAL INSTABILITY OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY THANKS TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WHILE SOUNDINGS PAINT
A FAIRLY DRY COLUMN...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH IN
OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN AND
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AND SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR ALLOWING FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE RIDGE AXIS.
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WEST OF THE FOX
RIVER VALLEY WHERE THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE AT FROST...AND MID TO
UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH THE
HIGH CENTERED OVER FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.
//LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
PATTERN IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY STARTING LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS POTENT
UPPER WAVE DIGS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CARVES OUT A TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS SOUTH INTO TEXAS BY LATE MONDAY. SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED
TO DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST. FOR
NOW THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN A SURFACE LOW TRACK NEAR OR
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH
TIMING AND MAGNITUDE REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT DOES APPEAR GIVEN THE
TRACK THAT WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SOMETIME
DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT APPEARING TO BE
THE BEST CHANCE WITH DRIER WEATHER THEN EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* WIND DIRECTION LIKELY VARYING SOMEWHAT BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN TURNING NORTHEAST
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW 10 KT MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THAT TIME.
* POSSIBLY TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
ANY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH AWAY FROM THE
CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD TAF SITES TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SO DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST
AND BUILDING INTO THE REGION IT WILL CREATE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
THE WIND DIRECTION TODAY AND HAVE ALREADY SEEN THAT EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME VARYING BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHEAST.
THE WIND SPEEDS IN THE MIXING LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK TO BE
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP SURFACE SPEEDS BELOW 10 KT. AS WINDS TURN MORE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF NEARBY LAKE
MICHIGAN...SPEEDS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT WITH LIMITED
BAROCLINICITY BETWEEN LAND AND WATER TO DRIVE A STRONGER LAKE
BREEZE.
ON FRIDAY MORNING WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH A
WEAK COOL FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REACH OR
EXCEED 10 KT BY LATE MORNING. THE FETCH OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND POTENTIALLY BROKEN INTO ORD AND MDW DURING THE
MID TO LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH THAT WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KT FOR MOST OF TODAY.
* LOW ON ANY MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHEAST
WINDS.
SUNDAY...CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MVFR. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS.
MONDAY...RAIN LIKELY AT TIMES ALONG WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...WEST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
204 AM CDT
THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
CANADA THIS WEEK WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN
QUEBEC TODAY AND TONIGHT. ONE LAST WEAK COLD FRONT EMANATING
FROM THIS WILL TRAVERSE DOWN THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS TO BRING ONSHORE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON
FRIDAY IN THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE THAT
IS OVER THE UPPER PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN LAKES ON SATURDAY AND THEN DEPART OFF TO THE EAST BY
EARLY SUNDAY. AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES ON SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ENVELOP THE LAKE
INTO MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS
PRESENTLY FORECAST TO PASS THE LAKE SOMETIME MONDAY AFTERNOON OR
NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FEATURE.
THIS WOULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY DICTATE THE DEGREE OF THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION SURGE AND WINDS BEHIND ITS PASSAGE. RIGHT NOW THIS DOES
NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG...MORE IN THE 15-25 KT TYPE RANGE.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1001 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
Frontal boundary draped just south of our area, extending
from southeast Kansas to along the Ohio River. Couple steady areas
of showers have been tracking through, one south of I-72 with some
isentropic lift, and one with more of a deformation zone band
closer to the northern CWA border. So far the thunder areas have
been staying out our south, and RAP guidance suggesting that
showers will continue to be the general trend through the day.
With time, the focus for precipitation will be shifting to the
southern half of the forecast area. Have sent some updates to
diminish the PoP`s across the northwest this afternoon, but have
kept likely PoP`s going most other areas. Temperatures have been
on track, with the big question whether the 60s arrive in the
southeast. Latest NAM and RAP mostly keep the front just to our
south. Although the LAMP guidance brings mid-upper 60s to
Lawrenceville, it is running about 5 degrees too warm out of the
gate. Have not adjusted highs at this time, but will monitor the
next few hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
Most of central Illinois is between two regions of precipitation
early this morning. One to the north appears to be associated with
lift resulting from a low level deformation zone in a col region of
an elongated high pressure ridge. This has brought generally light
stratiform rain from around Peoria to Danville through the
northern portions of the central Illinois forecast area. To the
south...a region of isentropic lift from northwest Missouri to
southern Illinois has brought numerous thunderstorms to that
region. The isentropic lift area is expected to lift northeastward
into central Illinois by late morning to early afternoon. However,
models indicate that the moderate MUCAPE amounts around 1500 J/kg
will remain south of central Illinois through the day, with only a
few hundred J/kg reaching southern portions of our forecast area.
As a result, will continue with likely precipitation forecast but
only as high as chance for thunderstorms. Precipitation amounts
look to remain modest today as a result of the limited
instability.
With considerable cloudiness and warm air pushing into the area
aloft, but northeasterly surface winds, it appears surface
temperatures will remain quite cool today...primarily in the upper
50s to low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
Will continue high chances of showers and possible thunderstorms
over southern half tonight into Friday while pops lower over
northern parts which eventually go dry from Rushville to Bloomington
north as 1025 mb Canadian high pressure settles into the Great Lakes
region Friday night and Saturday. Rainfall amounts today through Friday
range from near or over 1 inch SW of Effingham and Robinson in
southeast IL to near a quarter inch north of Peoria.
Lingered chances of showers over southeast IL Friday night and
Saturday while most of central IL to be dry. Below normal highs
mostly in the upper 50s Friday and Saturday. Lows tonight range
from lower 40s north to lower 50s far south along highway 50.
Patchy frost possible later Friday night north of a Galesburg to
Henry line while more widespread frost north of I-80. Dropped lows
to 37F at Galesburg Friday night while lower 40s south of Peoria.
Extended forecast models and their ensembles agree with showing a
strong full latitude upper level trof shifting eastward into the MS
river valley Tue with a cutoff low forming over the mid MS river
valley by 00Z/Wed. The ECMWF model continue to be the slowest model
while GFS is the fastest and GEM model in in between. Leaned toward
the slower ECMWF model and have increased chances of showers and
isolated thunderstorms early next week. Low pressure to deepen NE
from the southern Rockies/Plains into the Great Lakes Region Monday
night and another surface low to move up the Ohio river valley Tue.
Will see chances of showers Sunday increase to likely chances Monday
and Monday night especially over eastern/SE IL where heaviest qpf
will be. As much as 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain expected from Sun-Tue
with highest amounts near the Wabash river. Drier weather finally
returns to central/SE IL on Tue night and Wed.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
Two areas of precipitation expected to affect central IL TAF sites
today. First region extends from around KGBG-KDNV northward,
already affecting KPIA, KBMI, KCMI with light showers. Expecting
these sites should see visibility drop into MVFR category by
17-18Z, however cigs predominantly continuing VFR. Overnight, a
push of dry air from high pressure over the upper Mississippi
valley expected to end precipitation over KPIA-KBMI for improving
conditions. Second area of precipitation edging ENE-ward toward
KSPI-KDEC and should bring predominant -shra to these sites in the
next few hours, along with isolated TSRA. Predominantly VFR cigs
expected early on, but cigs/vsbys deteriorating through the day to
predominantly MVFR. This activity expected to continue through
much of the 24 hour TAF period. Winds generally NE 5-10 kts for
the next 24 hours.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
303 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN IN COOL NW FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL CANADA.
THERE HAS BEEN A CLEARING TREND THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WIDESPREAD
OVC LOW CLOUDS THAT COVERED THE FORECAST AREA EARLIER TODAY. THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE...BUT SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODEL LAYER RH
FIELDS INDICATE THE CLOUDY SKIES NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL MOVE
BACK INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BOLSTER
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS OVER THE NORTH AGAIN TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...SO COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THERE. THE COMBINATION OF CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT COULD PROMOTE FOG. HOWEVER...IT WILL DEPENDENT ON WEAK THE
WINDS GETS AND THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING. MODEL SURFACE CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE NOT VERY INDICATIVE OF FOG...EXCEPT FOR THE
LOCAL WRF...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT. THE EVENING SHIFT
WILL REEVALUATE THE NEED TO ADD FOG TO THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE LIKELY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF THE NORTHLAND. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY...LINGERING INTO FRIDAY EVENING...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN SOME CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER WAVE WILL START TO IMPACT THE
NORTHLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN
SPREADING WEST TO EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE HIGHEST
POPS OVER WESTERN AREAS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER WAVE/SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST MONDAY WITH A
SOUTHERN SYSTEM MOVING UP TOWARD SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BY 00Z TUE.
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE MONDAY...WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES SHIFTING INTO EASTERN AREAS.
WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. RIDGING/HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND LAST INTO THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A GRADUAL INCREASE FROM SATURDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE FIFTIES SATURDAY TO
WARM TO THE MID FIFTIES TO LOWER SIXTIES BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS COVERED MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND AS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE WERE SOME SIGNS THAT THIS DECK WILL THIN AND
BECOME SCATTERED IN SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WE DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CLEARING...OR FOR THE CLEARING TO LAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE RAP AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LOWERING MVFR
DECK OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN/DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHLAND LATER
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AT
THIS TIME. AN INVERSION WAS AT LEAST PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR
THESE CLOUDS REMAINING. THE NAM DOES SHOW THIS INVERSION WEAKENING
TODAY...BUT STILL HAS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL RH. WE HAVE MVFR
CLOUDS IN ALL TAFS TONIGHT...BUT ONLY IN A TEMPO GROUP AT KBRD
WHICH SEEM THE MOST REMOVED FROM THE LOW LEVEL RH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 33 47 33 52 / 0 0 0 0
INL 33 45 29 55 / 10 10 0 0
BRD 32 50 29 56 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 30 51 25 53 / 0 0 0 0
ASX 34 49 33 53 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
LARGE DEEP CIRCULATION OVER ONTARIO CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
WITH SFC RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM WRN CANADA. ANIMATION
OF RUC40 85/50H RH SHOWS THAT DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO WRN CWA WITH ADVANCE OF MID LVL RIDGING OVER NRN PLAINS. 30H
JET CORE STRETCHES FROM SERN MANITOBA TO UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN. A LARGE AREA OF MVFR STRATUS IS SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO ADJACENT NRN MN CWA. THIS APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 85H THERMAL TROUGH. TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ARE
CONTINUING TO DROP BELOW CLIMO VALUES IN MOST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION DESPITE THE EJECTION OF THE MID LVL LOW OVER ONTARIO. AN
AMPLIFYING MID LVL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE FROM SRN SASK INTO WRN MN
BY LATE FRIDAY. A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH DRY FCST MAINTAINED IN GRIDS. MAJORITY OF CLOUDS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS ARROWHEAD TODAY WHERE LOW LVL COND PRESS DEFICITS
DECREASE. ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL REDEVELOP TODAY WITH DIURNAL
HEATING...THE MAGNITUDE WILL CONTINUE A DECREASING TREND FROM
PREVIOUS DAYS. TEMPS REMAIN BLO CLIMO.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD WILL START OUT ON A QUIET NOTE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S.
RECOVERY INTO THE 50S IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE EXPECTED. THE WEATHER WILL CHANGE CONSIDERABLY STARTING ON
SUNDAY...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CARVE ITSELF OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY...AND SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/GEM AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP POPS FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A MAJOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES FROM TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD
WILL BE IN THE 50S. WE COULD SEE SOME 60S TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS COVERED MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND AS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE WERE SOME SIGNS THAT THIS DECK WILL THIN AND
BECOME SCATTERED IN SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WE DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CLEARING...OR FOR THE CLEARING TO LAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE RAP AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LOWERING MVFR
DECK OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN/DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHLAND LATER
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AT
THIS TIME. AN INVERSION WAS AT LEAST PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR
THESE CLOUDS REMAINING. THE NAM DOES SHOW THIS INVERSION WEAKENING
TODAY...BUT STILL HAS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL RH. WE HAVE MVFR
CLOUDS IN ALL TAFS TONIGHT...BUT ONLY IN A TEMPO GROUP AT KBRD
WHICH SEEM THE MOST REMOVED FROM THE LOW LEVEL RH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 48 33 47 31 / 0 0 0 0
INL 45 34 46 27 / 10 10 10 0
BRD 50 31 51 30 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 51 29 51 28 / 0 0 0 0
ASX 50 35 49 31 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-
146>148.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
315 PM EDT THU OCT 09 2014
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL DRIFT EAST AND OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY...
THEN DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...
THROUGH TONIGHT: OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NOW
PUSHING THROUGH SE KY/ERN TN INTO SW VA AND APPROACHING WRN NC... AS
WELL AS THE MORE CELLULAR CONVECTION POPPING UP OVER NE GA/SW NC
ALONG THE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY GRADIENT. MODELS HAVE DONE A
SUBPAR JOB HANDLING THESE FEATURES... NOT SURPRISING IN THE CASE OF
THE KY/TN COMPLEX GIVEN THAT IT`S ELEVATED. THE HRRR MODEL WITH ITS
RADAR DATA ASSIMILATION IS ONE OF THE FEW PICKING UP ON IT... AND IT
TAKES THE PRECIP AREA EASTWARD INTO THE VA AND NRN NC MOUNTAINS
BEFORE DISSIPATING IT INTO ISOLATED SHOWERS... REASONABLE
CONSIDERING ITS CURRENT WEAKENING. THE HRRR AND SPC WRF BOTH DEPICT
CONVECTION OVER THE SW NC MOUNTAINS INTO GA... AND THEY TOO TEND TO
DISSIPATE THIS ACTIVITY AS IT HEADS (WITH THE MEAN WIND) ON A MORE
EASTERLY TRACK INTO THE MORE STABLE AIR WITH LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY (SURFACE-BASED OR ELEVATED). WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE FAR WRN AND SW FRINGES OF THE CWA
INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE... EXPECT CURRENTLY FAIR/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO SUCCUMB TO CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MID CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM THE
WNW... AS WELL AS A HIGHER CLOUD SHIELD SPREADING OUT FROM ORGANIZED
CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM MO THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. THE FRONTAL ZONE
TO OUR SOUTH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT... WHILE
FRONTOGENESIS TAKES PLACE JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SRN VA... THE
EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONTAL ZONE NOW STRETCHING ACROSS MO/KY. THE
CLOUDS ALONG WITH CLIMBING DEWPOINTS RESULTING FROM THE FRONTOLYSIS
TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR TONIGHT. EXPECT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS OF 52-57.
FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT: THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING OUT TO
SEA FRI... WHILE THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH STEADILY STRENGTHENS ROUGHLY
WEST-EAST ACROSS SRN TN/KY. OVERRUNNING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY FRI AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATION MOVES EAST OVER KY/TN TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
FRI NIGHT FROM NW TO SE. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER WRN KY/TN AND RIDE EAST ALONG THE FRONT LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT...
LEADING TO STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND RAPIDLY RISING PW VALUES (TO WELL OVER 1.5") PEAKING
FRI EVENING... WHEN THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH SW VA
TOWARD SOUTH-CENTRAL VA. WILL BRING A MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE NW CWA BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...
SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DECREASE A BIT WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TRACKS ENE AWAY FROM
CENTRAL NC. EXPECT HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE FRONT/LOW TRACK IN THE FAR
NRN SECTIONS... AND LOWER VALUES SOUTH WHERE THE SUBCLOUD LAYER WILL
BE A BIT DEEPER AND FORCING FOR ASCENT LOWER. HIGHS FROM 79 NW
(WHERE THICKER/EARLIER CLOUDS WILL LIMIT INSOLATION) TO 84 SE. VERY
WARM LOWS OF 63-66 FRI NIGHT WITH STEADY WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A
BLANKET OF CLOUDS. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...
AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY
MORNING IT WILL LEAVE A FAIRLY STAGNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DOES LITTLE TO STEER THE
FRONT ONE WAY OR ANOTHER. THE KEY FACTOR IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE FRONT SEEMS TO BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH IS STRONGER IN THE GFS SOLUTION AND HELPS
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND CREATE
A COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS WEAKER WITH THE
HIGH AND THE FRONT NEVER FULLY MAKES IT THROUGH THE AREA. WPC
GUIDANCE LEANS TOWARDS THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH IS BETWEEN THE
MORE EXTREME DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS. THIS TRANSLATES TO A CLOUDY
WEEKEND WITH VARYING DEGREES OF PRECIPITATION. WITH A FEW VORTICITY
MAXIMA TRACKING SW TO NE ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE I-85
CORRIDOR...COUPLED WITH A PERIOD OF DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER RAIN WOULD BE IN THE TRIAD WITHIN THE WEDGE
REGIME. THAT BEING SAID STILL EXPECTING QPF AMOUNTS TO BE JUST ABOVE
A HALF OF AN INCH WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. SATURDAY THE
FRONT SHOULD STAY ACROSS THE NORTH ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S NORTH TO THE LOW 80S SOUTH. SUNDAY SHOULD BE COOLER AS
FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND COLD AIR DAMMING BECOMES LOCKED IN. HIGHS
SUNDAY MIDDLE 60S NW TO LOWER 70S SE. LOWS UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BOTH
NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT TO SEA...LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE APPALACHIANS WILL BE THE EROSION MECHANISM
FOR BREAKING DOWN THE CAD WEDGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RELATIVE PERIOD
OF LESS CLOUDY AND DRIER WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. THE PREVIOUS FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT ON MONDAY AND THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
WARMER...MID 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
60S. TUESDAY WILL BE MORE OF THE SAME AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUDS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: THE MAIN EVENT FOR THE LONG TERM
WILL BE A FAIRLY POTENT FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. BOTH DETERMINISTIC MODELS
ARE NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BASIC PATTERN WITH TIMING
THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT BEING THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM.
THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION BRINGS PRECIP INTO THE AREA LATE TUE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND PUSHES THE COLD FRONT THROUGH BEFORE
SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY. THE EUROPEAN IS MUCH LATER WITH THE SYSTEM
WITH PRECIPITATION ENTERING WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. WHAT THEY DO AGREE UPON IS THAT BOTH
SOLUTIONS ARE NEGATIVELY TILTED AND FAIRLY POTENT WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60 KT 850 MB JET PASSING OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS
WILL BE A HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE EVENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER. WILL LET THE DETAILS IRON
THEMSELVES OUT IN THE COMING DAYS. FAVORING THE SLOWER TIMING A
BIT...EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND
THEN HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. WITH COLD FRONTAL
A COLDER AIRMASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. EXPECT A
CLEARING TREND FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z FRI. CLOUDS WILL
OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 21Z AND
LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT... HOWEVER CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH
BASES LIKELY AOA 5 000 FT AGL. VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH LOW
DEWPOINTS LIMITING FOG DEVELOPMENT... ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS AND
BANKS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE NEAR FAY (LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT AND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS) 08Z-12Z EARLY FRI MORNING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD IS PRODUCING LIGHT/VRBL SURFACE WINDS CURRENTLY...
AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT... BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING... AT SPEEDS OF 8-
12 KTS BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD... AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST
AND OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS NOT ANTICIPATED... HOWEVER
AVIATORS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR 20-30 KT WINDS FROM THE SW AT AROUND
2000-2500 FT AGL 06Z-12Z TONIGHT/FRI MORNING.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z FRI... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
EVENING... ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY AT INT/GSO FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE RETURN FLOW
FROM THE SW DEEPENING WITH TIME WILL BRING INCREASING NEAR-SURFACE
MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR FOG/STRATUS LATE FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA SAT...
RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE OF A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR SHOWERS/STORMS AT
ALL CENTRAL NC TERMINALS LATE SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. AS THE FRONT
SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING FROM THE NE
SAT NIGHT WHILE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ATOP IT... SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE SUN INTO
MON... ALTHOUGH THESE ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS MAY LAST THROUGH
MON NIGHT. A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUE MAY
BRING WIDESPREAD STRONG STORMS AND STRONG GRADIENT WINDS ON TUE INTO
TUE NIGHT. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
450 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT...AND SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FOR MID-WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
415 PM UPDATE...A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS NOW ATTEMPTING TO
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...BUT RADAR TRENDS OVER THE
PAST HR DO NOT REALLY LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE THEY WILL POSE A GREAT
THREAT TO AREAS EAST. THE MORE STABLE/CAPPED CONDITIONS OVER THE
PIEDMONT ARE LIKELY TO HOLD STRONG. DESPITE THAT...THE LAST COUPLE
RUNS OF THE HRRR AS WELL AS THE 12Z 4KM SPC WRF ALLOW SCT ACTIVITY
TO MAKE IT TO THE I-77 CORRIDOR AROUND SUNSET AS THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD. AGAIN...TRENDS SO FAR SUGGEST THE
ACTIVITY WILL NOT MAKE IT...BUT DID FEEL IT WAS REASONABLE TO EXPAND
SCHC POPS A BIT FURTHER INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND CENTRAL UPSTATE LATE
THIS AFTN. TOUCHED UP SKY TRENDS ALSO...BUT TEMPS ARE ON TRACK.
AS OF 230 PM...TONIGHT...QUASI-ZONAL 500 MB FLOW WILL CONTINUE...BUT
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES...AND HELP
ACTIVATE A WARM FRONT ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALSO HELP
STRENGTHEN SWLY 850 MB FLOW ATOP THE CWFA...AND ADVECT GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. KEEPING A LINGERING SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC POP ACRS
THE NC MTNS LOOKS REASONABLE. CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA. SO EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...PRIMARILY IN THE 50S TO LWR 60S.
FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACRS THE MIDWEST
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A SFC QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINING
ACTIVE JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE NAM AND GFS AGREE ON HIGHER DWPTS AND
SBCAPE ACRS THE ENTIRE CWFA. SWLY FLOW LLVL FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND
HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION ACRS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE
MTNS. BLENDING IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE...POPS WERE BUMPED UP A
CATEGORY ACRS MOST OF THE AREA...RANGING FROM SLGT CHC ALONG SE
BORDER TO LIKELY ALONG TN BORDER. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE
THREAT...AND SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK SHOWS JUST GENERAL THUNDER. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL (MAINLY MID 60S TO MID 70S MTNS AND UPR 70S
TO LWR 80S PIEDMONT).
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM THURSDAY...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISING LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. A SERIES OF UPPER
IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THROUGH THE MEAN WESTERLY FLOW
AFFECTING MAINLY WESTERN NC. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE IMPULSES
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SAT. AT THE
SURFACE...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH AN EAST/WEST BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A FRONTAL WAVE MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT TO THE NORTH AND THEN OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY SAT
WILL CAUSE THE BOUNDARY TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AND PERHAPS APPROACH THE
I-85 CORRIDOR SAT EVENING. AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MOVES INTO
A COLD AIR DAMMING POSSITION SAT NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL BACKDOOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GA BY EARLY SUNDAY.
THE WEDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO HOLD FAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THEREFORE...THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE UNSETTLED. THE
GFS AND EC HAVE QUITE A BIT OF QPF RESPONSE ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA FRI
NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE NAM KEEPS MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE PRECIP
OVER WESTERN NC ON SAT BEFORE BRINGING IT SOUTHWARD SAT NIGHT. WILL
ADVERTISE SOLID CHANCE POPS MAINLY OVER WESTERN NC FRI NIGHT. AS THE
MAIN UPPER SUPPORT APPROACHES ON SAT...WILL THEN RAMP POPS UP TO LOW
LIKELY ON SAT OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NC WITH CHANCE POPS SPREADING
INTO THE PIEDMONT AREAS SAT AFTERNOON. EXPECT THAT SCT/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
NOT LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF A SEVERE THREAT WITH ONLY
WEAK/MODERATE CAPE VALUES. AS THE WEDGE SETS UP ON SUN...PRECIP WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND CONFINED MAINLY TO WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS BY SUN
AFTERNOON. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON
SAT...ESPECIALLY OVER PIEDMONT AREAS. WITH WEDGE CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY...WILL FAVOR MODEL RAWBLEND FOR TEMPS WHICH INDICATES WELL
BELOW CLIMO MAX TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGHOUT
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT
ON THE TIMING OF A STRONG FROPA SOMETIME BETWEEN TUE AND WED. HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARDS TO THE PROGRESSIVE GFS/CMC SOLUTIONS THAT ARE
FAVORED BY THE WPC.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SUN NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO SWLY BY MON AS A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS WHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE TROUGH
PROGRESSES EASTWARD...THE FASTER GFS CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY AROUND 12Z TUE...AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY AROUND 00Z WED WITH ITS ASSOCIATED NEUTRALLY
TILED TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE REGION BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z
WED...OFFSHORE BY THU 00Z. THE OLD 00Z ECMWF IS AROUND 18-24HRS
SLOWER...WITH THE CMC COMPROMISING BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. AN
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THU INTO FRI.
AT THE SURFACE...A PERSISTENT SURFACE WEDGE OVER THE CWA WILL WEAKEN
AND DISSIPATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS THE CENTER OF PARENT HIGH
MIGRATES OFF THE NE COAST AND A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE FASTER GFS BRINGS A S-N ORIENTED FRONT TO THE EXTREME
WESTERN ZONES OF THE CWA BY AROUND 12Z TUE AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 00Z WED WHILE THE ECMWF IS AROUND 24HRS
SLOWER SUGGESTING THE FROPA WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 00Z WED AND 12Z WED.
THE CMC HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION. HAVE LEANED MORE
TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS/CMC SOLUTIONS FEATURING 60/70 POPS ON TUE AND
RAMPING DOWN THOUGH TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. THE NEW 12S GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE LLVL 0-3KM BULK WIND SHEAR OF 40-50KTS
WITH SBCAPE AROUND 300-500J/KG DURING THE FROPA. ALSO...PW VALUES
WILL REACH CLOSE TO 2 INCHES FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE ECMWF HAS
LESSER DEGREE OF SBCAPE/WIND SHEAR. IN ANY RATE...THERE IS THE TREAT
OF HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN/FLASH
FLOODING. WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE ON THE HWO GIVEN BETTER MODELS RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE WED INTO THU WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL MON/TUE WITH AROUND 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED/THU.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
21Z UPDATE...SOME VARIABLILITY IN THE SW QUADRANT IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTN UNTIL MIXING CEASES AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE COAST AGAIN PREVAILS. WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL S OVERNIGHT.
KAVL MAY SEE SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION TS AT THIS TIME.
AT KCLT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE 18Z TAF PERIOD...WITH LIGHT
SE TO SW WIND. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS AGAIN THIS
EVENING DUE TO CONVECTION UPSTREAM TO THE WEST. FRIDAY MORNING...AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MORE VFR-BASED CUMULUS. SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT STILL LESS THAN 10 KTS. ISOLD SHRA AND
TSRA MAY DEVELOP ACRS THE PIEDMONT FRIDAY AFTN. BUT THAT IS BEYOND
THE 18Z PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...LLVL FLOW IS INCREASING OUT OF THE SW...ADVECTING
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. THERE IS ALREADY A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND WEST OF KAVL/KGSP/KLUX LINE. SCATTERED
SHRA AND TSRA ARE DEVELOPING ACRS ERN TN AND NE GA. THERE IS A CHC
THAT SOME WILL GET INVOF THE KAVL/KAND SITES. LESS CERTAIN TO
KGMU/KGSP. AT TIME OF ISSUANCE...I WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENUF TO ADD
MENTION OR TEMPO...BUT WILL RE-EVALUATE AND MAKE QUICK AMD SOON.
TONIGHT...CONVECTION SHUD WANE...BUT LINGERING SHRA MAY CONTINUE
ACRS THE NC MTNS WITHIN MOIST SW FLOW. GUIDANCE IS TRENDING
FOGGIER...AS HIGHER DEWPTS ADVECT INTO THE AREA. WILL ADD SOME VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AT KHKY/KAND/KAVL. KAVL HAS BEST CHC OF IFR VALLEY FOG.
OUTLOOK...ASIDE FOR POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/CIGS...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL GENERALLY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
BACKDOOR FRONT AND DEVELOPING COLD AIR DAMMING ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY
BRING RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 98% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...ARK/WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
434 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS THE TIMING FOR PRECIP
TONIGHT AND HOW FAR SOUTH STORMS WILL SINK. LEANING TOWARD THE
SOLUTION BEING PRESENTED BY NSSL`S 4KM WRF AS IT APPEARS TO BE
INITIALIZING BETTER THAN THE HRRR TODAY...WHICH MEANS SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS COULD SNEAK IN BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...WITH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA LIKELY SEEING STORMS
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 7AM. MONDAY MORNING LOOKS SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING WITH MODELS INDICATING THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTH ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND A SURFACE LOW
TRAVELLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF TN. STRONG STORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH THE THREAT BEING THE HIGHEST NORTH OF
I-40 BEFORE NOON AND SOUTH OF I-40 AFTER NOON. PWAT VALUES REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AROUND 1.8 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE AREA
DURING THE SHORT TERM...THIS COUPLED WITH THE WEST TO EAST
MOVEMENT OF STORMS POSSIBLY OVER THE SAME AREA OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE
THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING. SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE GFS INDICATES A SUBTLE NEGATIVE TILT TO THE TROUGH
AFTER IT CROSSES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WILL BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER TO MONDAY. THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE MONDAY EVENING. 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 65 KNOTS AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES. SOUNDINGS INDICATE DECENT LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AND BULK SHEAR...BUT LIMITED CAPE VALUES WITH THIS SYSTEM.
PWATS WILL SURGE AGAIN AND BRING A CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY
NIGHT...WPC QPF TOTALS ARE AROUND 6 INCHES FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS
AS THEY UNFOLD FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL. CONDITIONS DRY OUT AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 64 77 59 68 / 60 80 70 70
CLARKSVILLE 63 74 53 65 / 70 80 70 60
CROSSVILLE 60 73 61 68 / 40 80 70 60
COLUMBIA 62 77 57 70 / 30 60 70 60
LAWRENCEBURG 61 78 60 72 / 30 60 60 60
WAVERLY 62 75 57 66 / 70 80 70 60
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1249 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
.AVIATION...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY CENTER AROUND MVFR STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT KCLL...KUTS...KCXO AND KLBX LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING AS WELL AS SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY.
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED DRIER...SUBSIDENT AIR WORKING
IT/S WAY EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER
EAST TEXAS. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW SEABREEZE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA TERMINALS WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY RESIDES... AND HI-RESOULTION MODELS CONTINUE
THIS TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER
APPROACHING THE I-45 CORRIDOR TAF SITES... BUT LOW CONFIDENCE
PRECLUDES MENTION AT THIS TIME. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF TRENDS
CHANGE. LOW CIGS/FOG LOOK TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AT THE
AFOREMENTIONED SITES BEFORE CLEARING BY MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE...
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAY IMPACT TAF SITES TOMORROW AS INCREASING
GULF MOISTURE STREAMS INLAND.
14
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AN ANALYSIS OF THE 12Z SURFACE AND UPPER LEVELS SHOWED A CAPPED
AIRMASS OVER MOST OF SE TEXAS...WITH THE FAR EASTERN SET OF
COUNTIES LESS CAPPED. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE
THROUGH 700 MB. AT 500 MB...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING EASTWARD
OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND WAS SHOWN BY THE WATER VAPOR TO BE
MOVING OVER THE COUNTIES NEAR THE SABINE AT 10 AM. A RIDGE WAS
OVERHEAD AT 300 AND 200 MB WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND
EAST OF LIBERTY AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES THROUGHOUT TODAY.
ACTUALLY...THE HRRR VERIFIED WELL AND ONLY BROUGHT ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER AREAS WEST OF THE COLORADO RIVER THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...AND INTO THE COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WAS
BETTER COVERAGE ON THE ARW AND NMM...HOWEVER THESE WERE ISOLATED
AS WELL.
PW/S ON THE 12Z UPPER AIR OBSERVED SOUNDINGS RANGED FROM 1.2 AT
KFWD...1.3 AT KSHV...AND 1.6 AT KLCH AND KCRP. THE NAMBUFR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD REACH BETWEEN 90
AND 92 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 72 91 73 84 66 / 10 20 20 60 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 74 90 73 87 71 / 10 20 10 50 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 78 87 77 86 75 / 10 20 10 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1229 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014
.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE 4-CORNERS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EWD THE
NEXT 24-HOURS. AS IT DOES QUITE A BIT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL STREAM AHEAD OF IT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WHILE
SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE LIKELY ARRIVING AT THE TWO TERMINALS BTWN 12Z AND 15Z
FRIDAY. PRECIP TONIGHT SHOULD STAY NORTH WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND LIFT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME SHOWERS SAG SWD WITH
THE FRONT EARLY FRIDAY TOWARD KCDS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
INSERT MENTION ATTM. OF BETTER CHANCE IS POST-FRONT LOW CLOUDS
THERE. COULD ALSO SEE SOME PRE-FRONTAL STRATUS ADVECTED NWD TOWARD
KLBB...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INSERT IN THAT TAF ATTM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT BOTH TERMINALS. THERE MAY BE SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
JORDAN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014/
SHORT TERM...
00Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A TIGHT
CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION EXTENDED ACROSS ARIZONA INTO
NEW MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE TROF WAS LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. SURFACE WIND REMAINED OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WHICH WAS SLOWLY PULLING IN HIGHER LEVELS OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWS AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
MOVING NORTHEAST BUT CURRENT TRAJECTORY SHOWS THAT THESE SHOULD
SKIRT JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
MODELS KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE BETTER PART OF TODAY WITH HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA. THE HRRR IS THE ONLY
MODEL WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THE MORNING CONVECTION AND
KEEPS IT OUT OF THE AREA SO WILL KEEP THE FIRST 6-HOUR WINDOW OF THE
FORECAST DRY. THERE WERE A FEW MODELS THAT INDICATED SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AT
VARIOUS TIMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LOOKING AT
THE DETAILS...MOST OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR AREAS OF FORECAST
CONVECTION SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE A PRETTY STOUT CAP IN PLACE WITH
LIMITED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ALOFT. IN ADDITION...THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA AS A 50 TO 70
KNOT JET MOVES OVERHEAD PLACING THE LEFT EXIT REGION WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND...REMOVED LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL AGAIN BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AS
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE DAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH TOWARDS THE
AREA. THE FRONT IS NOT FORECAST TO MAKE IT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE BUT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
AND BROAD SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE WHICH MAY HELP
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
AND COVERAGE NOT VERY WIDESPREAD INITIALLY BUT COVERAGE MAY INCREASE
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE THE GREATEST BUT RELATIVELY COOLER ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
JORDAN
LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS FOCUSED ON TWO COLD FRONTS AND TWO
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
THE INITIAL EXCITEMENT WILL KICK OFF THE LONG TERM ON FRIDAY AS A
SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING
POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONVERGE ON THE SOUTH PLAINS.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NWP REGARDING THE
SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE NAM ON THE FAST SIDE PUSHING THE
FRONT THROUGH THE CWA BETWEEN 12 AND 21Z...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
IS ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS SLOWER. WE HAVE TENDED TO FAVOR THE CONSENSUS
OF SOLUTIONS...MEANING A LATER FROPA...THOUGH THIS IS SUBJECT TO
CHANGE...ESPECIALLY IF OUTFLOWS FROM POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION TO OUR
NORTH CAN GIVE THE FRONT AN EXTRA BOOST. THE FRONT TIMING/LOCATION
WILL BE CRITICAL AS MORE STABLE /COOLER AND DRIER/ AIR WILL QUICKLY
MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND LIMIT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY. GIVEN THE
PREFERRED SLOWER SOLUTION...IT STILL APPEARS THE SOUTHERN ZONES
WILL STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH PEAK HEATING WHICH COULD SET
THE STAGE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...PWATS NEAR 1.5
INCHES WILL PROMOTE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...THOUGH RELATIVELY
QUICK STORM MOTIONS AND THE SOUTHWARD SHIFTING FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIMIT THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION. THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
WELL...THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE MUTED SOMEWHAT WITH
LESS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WE HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE HIGH
CHANCE CATEGORY THERE...TAPERING BACK TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT TOWARD
THE TX/NM STATE LINE. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS...THOUGH THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS
WELL TO THE SOUTH AND THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES OFF TO THE EAST.
SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE DRY...BUT IT WILL START OUT CLOUDY AND
COOL WITH A NORTHERLY BREEZE. THE CLOUDS WILL EVENTUAL BREAK THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY PEAK IN THE 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 70S WHERE THE SUN APPEARS EARLIEST. IN
CONTRAST...SUNDAY WILL BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL BOOST HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S. THIS
WARM UP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A STRONG JET DIVING THROUGH THE WEST
CARVES OUT A SHARP BUT PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE NATION. A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG A DIFFUSE DRYLINE IN
ADVANCE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BETTER/DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE CWA BY PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...THE STRONG UPPER
JET AND ASSOCIATED DPVA ALONG WITH OUR NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SO ONLY
LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS NARROW
PRECIPITATION WINDOW. DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER FROM THE
WEST.
AFTER THE WARM AND BREEZY SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
MAKE IT TO THE 70 DEGREE MARK MONDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL
FOLLOW AS THE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD THOUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...THOUGH COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH A DRY
ATMOSPHERE RESIDE IN THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 83 54 67 41 68 / 10 20 40 20 0
TULIA 84 54 69 44 68 / 10 20 40 30 10
PLAINVIEW 83 62 71 46 68 / 10 20 30 30 10
LEVELLAND 84 60 75 46 70 / 0 20 20 30 10
LUBBOCK 84 64 75 49 68 / 0 20 20 40 10
DENVER CITY 85 61 78 49 71 / 0 20 10 20 10
BROWNFIELD 86 61 77 49 70 / 0 20 20 30 10
CHILDRESS 87 65 74 50 68 / 10 20 50 40 10
SPUR 86 64 78 49 69 / 0 10 40 40 10
ASPERMONT 88 68 81 51 69 / 0 10 40 50 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
413 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE REGION THROUGH
WEEKEND AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THIS MAY PUSH SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT...BUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...
WEAKENING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS JUST ENTERING MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE REGION OF VIRGINIA...AND HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
KEEPING SOME SHOWERS MOVING EAST INTO EARLY EVENING TO ABOUT THE
BLUE RIDGE...PERHAPS EVEN FARTHER. MOST OTHER MODELS REALLY HAD NO
HANDLE ON THIS IN THE FIRST PLACE. INSTABILITY EXTREMELY LIMITED
SO THUNDER CHANCES VERY MINIMAL BUT KEEPING A SMALL ZONE OF SLGT
CHC THUNDER IN ACROSS FAR SW FOR A FEW HOURS.
OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS THICKEN FROM THE WEST...AND IN GENERAL THE
COOLER MAV GUIDANCE LOOKS BETTER...ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE IT WILL
TAKE LONGER FOR CLOUDS TO FILL IN. WILL LIKELY SEE COOLER TEMPS IN
PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT COMPARED TO SW PART OF FCST AREA...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR AND DECOUPLING...VS. WEST WHERE CLOUDS WILL RULE AND
WINDS MAY STAY UP ALONG RIDGES. AFTER THIS INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS
DISSIPATES LATER THIS EVENING...DO NOT SEE MUCH MENTIONABLE CHANCE
OF SHWRS UNTIL TOWARD MORNING IN FAR WEST GIVEN POSITION OF
BOUNDARY AND TIMING OF NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE COMING IN FAIRLY
LATE. INTRODUCE SOME LIKELY POPS FAR WEST BY DAWN.
FRIDAY THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DOES NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS EAST...BUT
A STRONG SHORT WAVE IN WESTERLY FLOW APPROACHES BY
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO GENERATE MORE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE A THUNDERSTORM GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY...BEST CHANCES
FOR ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF WITH SBCAPE OF 500
OR SO. RAINFALL OVERALL WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR A QUARTER INCH OR MORE FAR WESTERN SLOPES...EXCEPT
FOR ANY ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWER WITH THUNDER. TEMPS FRIDAY SHOULD
BE MILD DESPITE LIMITED SUNSHINE...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR A FEW
BREAKS WOULD BE IN THE PIEDMONT...AND ANY SUN COULD HELP TEMPS
CLIMB INTO LOWER 80S. BUMPED UP TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES MAINLY IN
THE PIEDMONT...AND IF WE END UP WITH LIMITED RAIN IN WEST MAY EVEN
HAVE TO BUMP UP A LITTLE MORE EVENTUALLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...
TIMING OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES IN THE ZONAL FLOW BRING BEST
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE AND THERE IS GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTY
WARNING AREA.
MODELS WERE BECOMING SIMILAR IN WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR. FRIDAY NIGHT THE AXIS WILL RUN FROM NEW JERSEY
TO SOUTHERN KANSAS THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTHERN VIRGINIA TO
NORTHERN MISSOURI.
ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND OVERRUNNING WILL LIFT
MOISTURE OVER THE WEDGE ON SUNDAY. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL
GREATLY LIMIT RISE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...
GFS AND CANADIAN WERE TRENDING TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF ON
THE 00Z RUNS...BUT NOW CUT OFF A 500 MB LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON TUESDAY...24 HOURS BEFORE THE ECMWF CLOSES OFF A LOW.
THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE TIMING OF THE
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSING THROUGH THE REGION. BY MONDAY
MORNING WINDS ARE DIRECTING DEEP MOISTURE STRAIGHT OUT OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. SUCH INTENSE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM MEANS THAT THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE +14 TO +17 RANGE SURGE NORTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ENOUGH WARM
ADVECTION THAT TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE LITTLE DROP OVERNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH ANY SUNSHINE AT ALL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
WRAP AROUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WITH THE UPPER LOW ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.
DUE TO UPSLOPE WINDS IN THE WEST AS WELL AS COLD POOL ALOFT...WILL
KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT THURSDAY...
VISIBLE SAT AND SURFACE OBS CONFIRM SCT CIRRUS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF
THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A SYSTEM THAT
WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON FRIDAY. EXPECT FOG AT LWB THAT WILL DROP
THEM DOWN TO IFR FRIDAY MORNING AND MVFR AT BCB FOR A FEW
HOURS...OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN SHOWERS ARE MENTIONED
AT BLF/LWB/BCB BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING AFTER 12Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
COMBINATION OF A FRONT ACROSS THE REGION AND WEAK DISTURBANCES
RIDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL MAKE FOR PERIODS OF SUB- VFR DEVELOPING
BY FRIDAY EVENING. POOR FLYING CONDITIONS UNDER LOW CIGS LIKELY TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT REMAINS NEARBY
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES SETTING
UP A WEDGE SCENARIO BY SUNDAY. INTERVALS OF PASSING SHOWERS MAY ALSO
MAKE FOR PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN RAIN/FOG OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE WEDGE APPEARS TO ERODE BY NEXT MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING. MODELS FAVOR WETTER WEATHER NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD KEEP
TERMINALS IN SUB VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...CF/JH