Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/08/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
830 PM MST TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM SIMON WILL BRING AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY REBOUND TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS BY THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH
MARKEDLY DRIER CONDITIONS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WE CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP FROM THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING...WITH VIRGA AND MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM MID LEVELS TO LOWER LEVELS. SEVERAL SPOTS
HAVE SEEN DECENT RAINFALL RATES AND A QUICK 1/3 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN
IN 15 MINUTES...BUT MOST AREAS HAVE SEEN LIGHTER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON NORTHWARD. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES UP TO AROUND 1.4 INCHES NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH A
FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT DOWN TO JUST UNDER 1 INCH NORTH OF TUCSON.
COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY CYCLE DOWN LATE TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR WESTERN
AREAS SUCH AS WESTERN PIMA COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF THE TOHONO O`ODHAM
NATION AS EARLY WEAK MID LEVEL FRAGMENT EDDIES ACCOMPANY DEEPER
MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM WHAT`S LEFT OF SIMON. AT 8PM SIMON WAS
DOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT LOW STILL DOWN AROUND 28.1N 115.8W NEAR THE
BAJA COAST NEAR PUNTA EUGENIA. VERY STRONG MID LEVEL DRYING FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC ALREADY EATING INTO THE REMAINING MOISTURE FIELDS.
LATEST 12Z MODEL ANALYSIS NOW SHOWS THE PREVIOUSLY DRY NAM BRINGING
THROUGH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...EDGING CLOSER TO WETTER GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUING TO EMPHASIZE OUR
BEST CHANCES AT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS IT SHEARS THE LAST
SIGNIFICANT REMNANTS INTO A QUASI TROUGH STRUCTURE THROUGH
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE GFS AND NAMDNG5 EMPHASIZING
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
OUR CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH THREAT FOR INITIAL HEAVIER
PRECIP OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS IN WESTERN AREAS TRANSITIONING INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE`LL BLEND IN A LITTLE 00Z MODEL INFLUENCE IN A
MODEST 9PM UPDATE. THIS EVENING HAS LOOKED GOOD BUT WE UNFORTUNATELY
STILL HAVE LOTS OF QUESTIONS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE NATURE OF
MIXING HYBRID TROPICAL METEOROLOGY INTO MID LATITUDE REGIMES.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 09/03Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGHOUT...WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS ON THE INCREASE AS
WELL. OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL POTENTIALLY IMPACT
ALL AREAS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE BEST THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG A LINE FROM KTUS TO KOLS AND AREAS TO THE
WEST. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS
WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWER CHANCES AND RISING DEWPOINTS WILL BE THE RULE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD
INTO ARIZONA. PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHOWERY IN NATURE...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED AS HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH WESTERN AREAS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND WILL LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT
WEEK. OTHER THAN SOME GUSTY WINDS DUE TO THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...SIMON...NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH IS ABOUT 120 KM W OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
AS OF THE LAST ADVISORY BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF SIMON RESULTED IN HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS STREAMING INTO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD NOW APPROACHING SOUTHERN
WYOMING ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. AT THE SURFACE...24-HR DEWPOINT
CHANGES OF +5 TO +10 DEG F ARE NOTED THIS HOUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE MOISTENING OF THE LOW AND UPPER-LEVELS IS
QUITE APPARENT IN THIS MORNING`S 12Z KTWC SOUNDING...WHICH SHOWS A
PW VALUE OF 0.85 INCHES...UP 0.46 INCHES FROM 12Z MONDAY. RECENT
SATELLITE-DERIVED PW VALUES ARE EVEN HIGHER THIS HOUR...AROUND ONE
INCH EXCEPT ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES.
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS TWO AREAS OF PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FIRST...ENTERING S CALIFORNIA AND SW ARIZONA IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MAIN SLUG OF MOISTURE AND ASCENT FROM WHAT REMAINS OF SIMON. THE
SECOND IS AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH HAVE
FIRED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF TUCSON AMID LIMITED
BUOYANCY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND AND ISOLATED STORM ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP MOVES NORTH OUT OF
MEXICO. THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE OF THE CURRENT SITUATION AND BACKS UP THIS CURRENT FORECAST
THINKING WELL.
THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT DRIVING
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUCSON AND POINTS SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST WHILE THE GFS HAS RECENTLY SHIFTED ITS FOCUS SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. THE 12Z CMC...ON THE OTHER
HAND...PAINTS AN AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH THIS EVENT.
THINKING IS THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS DEEPER
MOISTURE ENTERS THE REGION AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IMPROVE WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW WITH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY FROM ROUGHLY NEAR TUCSON WEST...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN MANAGE
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. BASED ON COORDINATION WITH
EL PASO...HAVE DECREASED POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERNMOST ZONES SINCE IT
APPEARS THEY WILL BE DISPLACED TOO FAR FROM MID AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT TOMORROW.
STORM TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR THIS EVENT ARE GENERALLY A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH FOR THE EASTERN VALLEYS...AROUND ONE INCH ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES...AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE MAIN FOCUS STILL APPEARS TO BE ROUGHLY FROM TUCSON AND POINTS
WEST. BASED ON THESE FORECAST STORM TOTALS AND THE DURATION OF THE
EVENT...A WIDESPREAD FLOOD EVENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME...BUT ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING
CONCERNS.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS
EASTWARD...ALTHOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE NECESSITATES KEEPING CHANCE
AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
MEYER/DAVIS/CARLAW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
953 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.UPDATE...
DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD. AREAS NW OF JAX
ALREADY IN THE CLEAR. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW OPTIMAL COOLING IN
SOUTH GA AND NORTH FL. HI-RES MODELS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG IS HIGH ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-10.
SOME VISIBILITIES COULD BE LESS THAN A MILE IN THOSE AREAS. PATCHY
FOG WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING AROUND 2 AM AND THICKEN THROUGH THE
NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S IN SOUTHERN GA TO
AROUND 70 IN OUR SOUTHERN FL COUNTIES.
&&
.AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM THE NW
TONIGHT. MOST MODELS SHOW FOG DEVELOPING OVER SE GA AND INTERIOR
NE FL TONIGHT...WITH HRRR MODEL SHOWING LIFR CONDITIONS OVER PARTS
OF FAR INTERIOR SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. BETWEEN 09Z-13Z
HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS/TEMPO IFR AT GNV...AND MVFR VSBYS AT
JAX...CRG...VQQ AND SSI TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES TONIGHT. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH
SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW TO MODERATE RISK ON WEDNESDAY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 62 88 62 89 / 0 10 10 10
SSI 67 84 69 83 / 10 10 0 10
JAX 66 87 65 87 / 10 10 0 10
SGJ 69 85 68 84 / 10 0 0 10
GNV 66 89 62 88 / 10 0 0 10
OCF 66 89 63 88 / 20 10 0 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
WALSH/ZIBURA/WOLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
815 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO
THE WEST OF FLORIDA THUS KEEPING CENTRAL FLORIDA IN A SOUTHWEST MID
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. HIGHER UP IN THE ATMOSPHERE...THE BACK RIGHT
QUADRANT OF A UPPER LEVEL/250MB JET MAX WAS EXITING TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE DIVERGENCE/LIFT PROVIDED BY THE DEPARTING JET FEATURE
AND VORTICITY MAXES CROSSING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP SKIES CONSIDERABLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WELL PAST MIDNIGHT BEFORE
ANY NOTICEABLE THINNING OF THE MID AND UPPER DECKS OF CLOUD COVER.
AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WAS STRETCHING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. THE PROXIMITY OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND LIGHT MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE
WINDS COULD BECOME CALM MOST AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE DUE TO SURFACE AND
LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS FORMING. THE LATEST WEATHER ROUNDUP WAS
INDICATING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. THIS SHOULD BE A
GOOD INDICATOR OF LOWS TEMPERATURES TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GUIDANCE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT/TOWARD
SUNRISE...ONE LEANING TOWARD MVFR MIST WHILE THE OTHER IS SOLIDLY
IFR. LOCAL HISTORY INDICATES THAT A SOUTHEAST FLOW IS NOT FAVORABLE
FOR DENSE/THICK FOG AND WITH SKIES STAYING CONSIDERABLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY MOST OF THE NIGHT FOG MOST LIKELY NOT TO BE AN ISSUE. PATCHY
GROUND FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE REAL SHELTERED AND LOW LYING AREAS
BUT WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW AND LET
THE MID SHIFT KNOW ABOUT THE MODEL THOUGHTS.
UPDATES TO WIND GRIDS AND THE PRE FIRST PERIOD WEATHER GRIDS WORDING.
PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...CIRRUS REMAINS MORE BROKEN THAN OVERCAST
THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. MORE SUNSHINE IS ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM AND THEY WILL TOP
OUT IN THE MID TO A FEW UPPER 80S BY MID AFTERNOON.
A FEW SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO HAS MADE ITS WAY ACROSS MARTIN AND
OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES. TRENDS FURTHER BACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
ALONG WITH THE HI-RES HRRR AND WRF SUGGEST THAT THESE AREAS INTO
SAINT LUCIE AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES MAY SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS
THROUGH LATE EVENING AS STEERING FLOW BRINGS ACTIVITY ACROSS. HAVE
INCLUDED THE MENTION OF STORMS RIGHT AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE FOR
ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE LAKE OR DEVELOP ALONG
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BREVARD/TREASURE COAST
OVERNIGHT THOUGH MOST OF ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE ATLANTIC. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS BUT AT
THE MOMENT DON`T THINK IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MENTION.
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS AROUND 70 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL LOCATIONS OF BREVARD AND THE TREASURE COAST.
WEDNESDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE STATE AS
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BACK MORE EAST-NORTHEAST AS SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE EAST COAST
FRONT/SFC LOW MERGES WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH AND RIDGE AXIS
SETTLES BACK OVER N FLORIDA.
THE WIND SHIFT WILL SHIFT ANY LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT MANAGES TO
ADVECT OVER THE AREA TODAY BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. WITHOUT THE
SHORTWAVE AND JET PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT...RAIN CHANCES LOOKS
VERY MINIMAL AND CONFINED TO THE TREASURE COAST/LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION. THIS IS LIKELY MAINLY TO BE IN THE FORM OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS
THAT LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE THE NE FLOW PUSHES ANY
ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE
MID-UPPER 80S.
WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...RATHER FLAT MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXIST OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTH GOMEX. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL EXIST
NORTH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT ONSHORE
WIND FLOW OVER THE AREA. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGHEST
OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERALL WILL
REMAIN LOW WITH GREATEST OPPORTUNITIES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FOUND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND PERHAPS OVER THE TREASURE
COAST...BUT MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN CLIMO FOR BOTH HIGHS/LOWS.
LATE WEEK...BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS SHOWN MIGRATING SEWRD FROM
THE OH/TN VALLEYS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LONGWAVE TROUGH.
ONSHORE FLOW WL DEVELOP LOCALLY AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHALLOW MOISTURE WL PRODUCE SOME LOW TOPPED MARINE SHOWERS MOVING
ASHORE MAINLY FROM THE CAPE SWD TO THE TREASURE COAST.
EXTENDED...LIGHT TO GENTLE ONSHORE CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE WEEK
ALONG WITH MODEST MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS NEAR
THE COAST AND INLAND. SHOULD HGHT FALLS OCCUR OVER THE CARIB WELL
SOUTH OF THE STATE ONSHORE WIND TENDENCY LOCALLY MAY BE A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. VEERING FLOW WOULD LIKELY INCREASE
CHCS OF SHOWERS AS WELL GIVEN HIGHER MOISTURE SUPPLY.
&&
.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN-OVC ABOVE FL120 AND SCT-BKN
FL050-120.
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
PREVAILING VFR CONDS. BKN CLOUDS FL150-200 BECOMING SCT OVERNIGHT.
WDLY SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND
TREASURE COAST THROUGH 08/02Z. ADDITIONAL ISOLD SHRA OVER ATLC
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW BRUSHING TREASURE COAST. HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BRING PATCHY MVFR FOG...ESPECIALLY IN INLAND LOCATIONS.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS INTO WED WITH ISOLD SHRA VCNTY LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AND TREASURE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...THE BUOYS WERE RECORDING 1 TO 2 FOOT LONG PERIOD
EAST NORTHEAST SEAS AND VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND SEAS STAY AT 1 TO 2 FEET.
ISOLATED STORMS IN AND NEAR THE GULF STREAM AND WEST TO THE COAST
SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTH.
PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW 5-10KTS THROUGH
EVENING HOURS WILL BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND THEN BACK
EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS RIDGE AXIS BECOMES MORE WEST-EAST
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. GRADIENT EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY AS A
RESULT...WITH SPEEDS CLOSER TO 10KTS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS
2-3FT WITH A CHOPPY 4FT DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF STREAM AS WINDS
ALIGN TO COUNTER THE NORTHERN FLOWING STREAM.
WED-SUN...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL REMAIN SITUATED EAST-WEST
NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT. WIND SPEEDS MAINLY AOB 15 KTS
BUT THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OR TWO WELL OFFSHORE/SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRONGER WITH 15-18 KT WIND
SPEEDS POSSIBLE. SEAS IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE SHOWN COMMON OVER THE OPEN
WATERS WITH AROUND 2 FT NEAR SHORE. HEIGHTS RISING TO AROUND 4-5 FT
LATE FRI AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 68 87 67 87 / 10 10 10 10
MCO 69 90 67 89 / 10 10 10 10
MLB 71 87 71 86 / 10 10 10 10
VRB 70 88 71 87 / 20 10 10 10
LEE 69 90 67 89 / 10 10 10 10
SFB 69 90 68 89 / 10 10 10 10
ORL 71 90 70 89 / 10 10 10 10
FPR 70 86 71 87 / 20 20 10 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
IMPACT WX...CRISTALDI
FORECASTS...WIMMER
PUBLIC......ULRICH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
721 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.UPDATE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE CWFA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HI-RES MODELS HAVENT INITIALIZED THE PRECIP CURRENTLY
APPROACHING NW GA VERY WELL. THE HRRR DOES PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN GA NEAR 12Z TOMORROW...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ON
THIS SOLUTION. SO...WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA. A SERIES OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE TROUGH IS SLOWLY PUSHING THE TROUGH
EASTWARD. CURRENTLY A DISTURBANCE IS SPARKING SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS ACROSS NORTH AL... AND THIS ACTIVITY COULD HOLD TOGETHER
AND PUSH ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GA THIS EVENING. MODELS AGREE ON
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST... AND ESTABLISHING
A LESS ACTIVE NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALSO DRAG A COLD FRONT... CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... INTO FAR NORTH GA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. NAM AND GFS MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND SAG
THE FRONT INTO THE ATLANTA METRO AREA... OR POSSIBLY JUST SOUTH OF
ATLANTA... BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE IT STALLS AND
MEANDERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE APPROACHING FRONT TONIGHT
WILL WARRANT HOLDING ONTO A LOW CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS NORTH GA
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD GREATLY HINDER
PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE WEAKENING FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PLAN TO SHOW ONLY A 10-15 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTH GA
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH EVEN LESS
POPS SOUTHWARD. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT... ALONG
WITH THE MEANDERING FRONT... WILL WARRANT ADDING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO FAR NORTH GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT... BUT NO THUNDER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AS FOR TEMPS... A MAV AND MET BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD... WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY... THEN NEAR NORMAL LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT.
39
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED THIS AFTERNOON AS SOFTWARE UPGRADE
RESULTED IN NO 12Z MODEL DATA INTO THE SYSTEM. OVERALL STILL
LOOKING AT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS FLOW FLATTENS ALOFT BUT SOME
WET CHANGES COMING AS WE TAP INTO PACIFIC TROPICAL MOISTURE LATE
IN THE WEEK...THOUGH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
TDP
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014/
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS
RUNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS
FAIRLY FLAT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE STARTING TO SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD CONCERNING THE DEPTH AND SHARPNESS OF THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...BOTH SHOW OUR REGION COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH GEORGIA JUST SOUTH OF THE MORE
ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW...BOTH MODELS KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION ALONG OR NORTH OF OUR NORTHERN BORDER. IN FACT BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF CUMULATIVE QPF SHOWS ALMOST NO PRECIPITATION
SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR THROUGH MONDAY. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE WEAKENING UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AND HOW FAR SOUTH A
WEAK COLD FRONT MANAGES TO PUSH INTO THE STATE.
MODEL INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL AT BEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...
BUT NOT NON-EXISTENT SO I HAVE KEPT THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.
20
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION.
THE HIGH-RES MODELS DON`T CURRENTLY HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
CURRENT ACTIVITY APPROACHING NW GA AND THE HRRR IS SHOWING AN
AREA OF SHRA/TSRA APPROACHING ATL AROUND 12Z TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW...SO WILL KEEP OUT THE MENTION AT THIS TIME. SOME PATCHY
MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3KFT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE SHRA/TSRA...OTHERWISE HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 61 84 59 84 / 20 5 10 10
ATLANTA 65 83 65 84 / 20 10 10 10
BLAIRSVILLE 58 76 55 77 / 40 20 20 20
CARTERSVILLE 62 83 57 83 / 30 10 20 20
COLUMBUS 65 88 66 86 / 10 5 10 10
GAINESVILLE 63 82 61 81 / 30 10 20 20
MACON 62 90 61 86 / 5 5 5 10
ROME 61 83 56 83 / 30 20 20 20
PEACHTREE CITY 60 85 59 84 / 20 10 10 10
VIDALIA 63 87 66 85 / 5 5 5 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1224 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
214 PM CDT
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE IDENTIFYING AND TIMING INDIVIDUAL
SHORT WAVE FEATURES IN PROLONGED NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER IMPACTS.
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MASSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH
AMERICA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE CENTER OF A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW
WOBBLING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND BREAKS DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WHICH EVENTUALLY HELPS OUR NEARLY STATIONARY CANADIAN CLOSED
LOW TO MOVE MORE DECISIVELY EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
UPPER FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA THUS BECOMES SOMEWHAT FLATTER BY
MID-WEEK...WHILE RETAINING A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ALSO IN THIS PROCESS...CURRENT TROPICAL STORM SIMON GETS
ABSORBED AS A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY SUB-TROPICAL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES.
LOCALLY...OUR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MODULATED A SERIES OF RELATIVELY SMALL AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS RIPPLING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
TIMING THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES AND THEIR
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. THE FIRST OF THESE
WAS PROPAGATING FROM CENTRAL IL INTO INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MAINLY MID-CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OR SO
OF COUNTIES. THESE SPRINKLES SHOULD MOVE LARGELY EAST INTO INDIANA
BY EVENING. ANOTHER QUICK-MOVING SHORT WAVE WAS NOTED IN GOES VAPOR
IMAGERY DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THIS TOO IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS IA AND CENTRAL IL LATER TONIGHT
WHILE YET ANOTHER CIRCULATION IN THE TWIN CITIES VICINITY PASSES TO
OUR NORTH. THIS PRESENTS ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A SECOND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
REFLECTION AND MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT NOTED IN THE 290-300 K
LAYER. TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS DO NOT SHOW OVERLY IMPRESSIVE SATURATION
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THOUGH GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
SQUEEZING OUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP LIKELY
LINGERING INTO MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS THE SHORT
WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER FAST DIGGING SHORT WAVE IS DEPICTED
DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATER MONDAY NIGHT...WITH CLOUDS
AND LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES AGAIN DEVELOPING AND SWEEPING ACROSS THE
CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND WITH BETTER CHANCE POPS
GENERALLY TO THE EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS AS THE DEEP LOW TO OUR NORTH FINALLY BEGINS
TO SHIFT TO THE EAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT DOES ALLOW A
BIT OF A WARMING TREND THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH HIGHS FROM UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S MONDAY RISING TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S TUESDAY. WITH A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA...TEMPS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE COOLER IN TH 60-65
RANGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
40S...THOUGH A COUPLE OF OUR TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS MAY DIP TO THE
UPPER 30S ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO MAXIMIZE RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AS NOTED ABOVE...AS UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES SOMEWHAT
FLATTER AND MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY...WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON EVENTUALLY WORKS
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY. WHILE THE UPPER
TROUGH TENDS TO HANG BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
IN LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IN BRINGING A PORTION OF THIS ENERGY AND
MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
RENEWED PUSH OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM JET AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MAY AID IN SPREADING PRECIP AS FAR NORTH AS THE
IL/WI BORDER THURSDAY...BEFORE THE BETTER FOCUS ALONG THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE TO OUR SOUTH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGING THE THREAT OF RAIN BACK INTO THE
AREA. DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS DEVELOP IN THE HANDLING OF THIS
SYSTEM BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS...WITH THE 00/12Z
ECMWF RUNS DECIDEDLY STRONGER WITH TROUGHING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON SUNDAY. WHILE CONFIDENCE LOWER WITH SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE
BY DAY 7...HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT SUNDAY AS A NOD TO
THE ECMWF WHICH IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUN.
TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED REMAIN COOLER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY/MID
OCTOBER...WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE INDICATING 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR
HIGHS AND UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S FOR MINS.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* TEMPORARY LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE BEST
CHANCE APPEARS TO BE 12Z-16Z.
* CHANCE FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF 2500-4000 FT CIGS DURING AND/OR
IMMEDIATELY AFTER LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING.
* WESTERLY WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 17-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SUPPORTIVE OF SMALL-SCALE WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. ONE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING OVER NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST
IN AT 06Z...WITH ANOTHER SET TO MOVE ATOP THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK.
THIS WILL BRING SUPPORT FOR TEMPORARY LIGHT RAIN AS WELL AS
LOWERING CIGS TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 4000 FT FOR A PERIOD. ANY
RAIN WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO CLOSER TO
WESTERLY WITH THIS MID-MORNING WEATHER SYSTEM AS IT WILL HAVE A
SUBTLE SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH IT. THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS TO HAVE A
LITTLE MORE SUFFICIENT MIXING THAN THIS MORNING AND THUS ALLOWING
FOR SOME GUSTS. MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE IN THEIR DEPTH OF
MIXING BUT STILL SHOULD SEE GUSTS IN THE TEENS...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE GUSTS OBSERVED SUNDAY IN A SIMILAR PATTERN.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES...SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SPEEDS JUST OFF THE DECK
/POSSIBLY DOWN TO 500 FT AGL/ ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30-40
KT. USUALLY IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN THE SURFACE WINDS INCREASE
SOME TOO THUS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
IN TAF.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH IN WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. MEDIUM AFTER 17Z.
* MEDIUM-HIGH THAT IF RAIN SHOWERS OCCUR THEY WILL BE LIGHT WITH
VFR VISIBILITY AND CIGS.
* LOW IN SUB 4000FT CIGS DURING THE MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. BETTER POTENTIAL AT MDW THAN ORD.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
* WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR.
* THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
* FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DRY/VFR.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
208 PM CDT
A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW MEANDERS AROUND
NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH MIDWEEK. BRISK SWLY-WLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL UNTIL THE LOW KICKS OUT TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY. WHILE GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME...THERE
WILL BE PERIODS WHEN WINDS WILL REACH ARND 30KT...ESPECIALLY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DROP OUT OF CANADA AND SPREAD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BUILD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH HIGH PLAINS...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OUT OF CANADA. BY FRIDAY...THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGIONS.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1148 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014
Short-wave trough currently evident on water vapor imagery over
the Plains has spread showers as far east as Omaha and Kansas City
as of mid-evening. HRRR continues to show the showers spreading
eastward into west-central Illinois by around midnight, then
further east to the Indiana border overnight. 00z KILX upper air
sounding shows a pronounced dry layer below 800mb, so any precip
that occurs will be quite light and may tend to be slower to
arrive than the models forecast. Will therefore continue to go
with a dry forecast this evening, followed by chance PoPs
overnight. Thanks to increasing clouds and precip, low
temperatures will be warmer than previous nights, with lows
remaining in the middle to upper 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014
Weak showers ahead of a shortwave have exited most of the CWA as of
2 pm except along the Indiana border. Latest surface map shows the
associated surface reflection between the Mississippi and Illinois
River valleys, and this should move through the CWA the remainder of
the afternoon.
Main focus for tonight is with potential for additional showers, as
another shortwave currently in South Dakota rotates into the Midwest
as part of the broad upper trough that covers much of the east 2/3
of the nation. High-resolution models bring an area of showers into
the western CWA quickly after about 1-2 am, with the areas northwest
of the Illinois River already drying out by sunrise. Have increased
PoP`s in most areas in the 09-12Z time frame, although rainfall
amounts are still looking to be minor.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014
There remains model consensus that the longwave trough will remain
in place across the eastern CONUS into Wednesday, and then begin to
shift eastward. However, there are varying solutions on the timing
and intensity of the various shortwaves that are projected to rotate
through the trough during that time. The strongest wave is now
projected for late tonight and Monday morning, which is about 6
hours faster than previous model solutions. Some adjustments were
made for that potential, with reduced PoPs by mid-day on Monday west
of I-57. Thunder potential was left in the forecast Monday afternoon
due to steep lapse rates, mainly south of a line from Rushville to
Lincoln to Champaign.
Another wave appears to affect central IL later Monday night into
Tuesday morning with another quick shot of showers or sprinkles. The
potential for measurable rain from the showers with those first two
waves is low. Most areas that do see rain may only get trace
amounts, or below `slight chance` PoP levels. For now will continue
with low chance and slight chance PoPs in the Mon-Tue time frame to
show that showers will be possible.
Guidance numbers from the NAM seem to be overdoing a brief warm-up
on Tuesday ahead of the surface front. With clouds and showers in
place for the morning and clearing not expected until after peak
heating, will trim highs at or below guidance.
Wednesday looks to be a dry day for now as the upper trough slides
east, heights rise aloft and surface high pressure builds into
Illinois. The typical warming associated with height rises aloft
will be counter-acted by the cold air with the surface high, so
overall the temps will cool down Wed into Thursday.
For Thursday, the remnants of Simon may come into play for our
forecast, as the moisture and wave energy get drawn into the
quasi-zonal flow from the southwest toward southern IL. The GFS is
the most progressive with that scenario, while the ECMWF seems to
stall the energy back over the Plains, but still send the moisture
eastward toward Illinois.
Models typically have a poor handle on the progression of tropical
systems once they come on land, so will not make significant changes
in the forecast. Will be keeping the likely and high chance PoPs
focused on Thursday for showers and isolated thunderstorms as the
remnants of Simon possible reach IL.
Beyond that, the GFS brings high pressure with reinforcing cool air
through next Sunday. Meanwhile the ECMWF finally ejects the wave
energy from Simon into IL on Sunday, with additional Gulf moisture
in tow and creates a wet scenario for the last half of next weekend.
The extended blend was influenced by the ECMWF enough for chance
PoPs to remain for Sat night/Sunday for now.
Overall, temps will remain below seasonal normals over the next
week, with Tuesday possibly the warmest day with highs possibly
reaching around 70. Otherwise, 50s and 60s will prevail for highs
through next Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014
VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 06z TAF period. A
weak upper-level disturbance currently across Iowa/Missouri will
track eastward tonight, spreading clouds and a few light showers
into central Illinois. Latest radar mosaic is showing scattered
showers approaching the Mississippi River. Based on timing tools
and most recent HRRR, have introduced VCSH at KPIA by 08z, then
further east to KCMI by 10z. Once disturbance passes to the east,
partial clearing will occur from west to east across the area
Monday morning. Despite synoptic subsidence in the wake of this
feature, steep mid-level lapse rates will lead to SCT-BKN diurnal
cloudiness, particularly along/north of the I-74 corridor. Will be
a breezy day as well, with forecast soundings suggesting westerly
winds gusting to around 20kt.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
856 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 855 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014
Close to 00z Wednesday, convective cloud elements were developing
along a surface frontal boundary stretching from north of Van
Buren Missouri (west end of the WFO PAH forecast area) to south of
KCGI, then eastward through extreme Southern IL to south of KOWB.
The initial elements were developing along the a N-S oriented nose
of the higher theta-e air on the east end of a LAPS surface-based CAPE
gradient of 500-800 j/kg. The 12km NAM-WRF, followed by the 3km
HRRR have had a good handle on the westward development during the
evening hours. The main upper level support is NW to SE oriented
wind max/vort center shifting east across the CWA. This feature is
enhancing the lift and convergence along the boundary while it
moves generally east-southeast through the area. This should
continue to fire convection through the evening over the Pennyrile
region of West Kentucky, given the ample low level moisture and
convergence in place. Given the differential shear in place, I
cannot rule out some enhanced updrafts capable of producing some
hail early this evening.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 614 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014
Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014
Morning convection has waned as the main cells have departed to
the east. There is still a slgt chance of a perturbation upstream
rotating down/across the FA and touching a storm off this pm, but
the HRRR suggests this is increasingly unlikely. Will maintain a
20 pop mention thru diurnal heating hours.
Drier air works down the column for our mid week and spells the
end of such as a frontal boundary drapes from the Plains across
the Mississippi and Ohio valleys sometime later in the week. This
sets the stage for an extended wet period that begins perhaps as
early as Wed night and continues thru the remainder of the short
term, into/thru the long term portion of the forecast.
.LONG TERM.../Friday through Tuesday/
Issued at 138 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2014
High confidence in a very wet extended forecast. Medium confidence
in the exact timing of the several rounds of rain events.
By Thursday into Friday a front will be stalled over the area
bringing rain to the region. This will combine with remnants of TS
Simon which should make landfall today. This will establish a
tropical connection to the southwest Pacific often referred to as a
monsoonal flow out west. This additional moisture will likely set
the stage for some flooding this weekend as the front meanders over
the heartland and especially early next week when yet another
stronger system will be bearing down on the area. This later system
could produce strong or even severe storms with very efficient/heavy
rain. At this time the models are not too aggressive with
instability but that is a little too far out to rule it out. Between
days 4 through 8 Friday through Wednesday morning we could see
between 3 to 5 inches for a storm total. The limiting factor will be
how much instability the atmosphere can muster.
Temperatures will go below normal Friday through Saturday then near
normal Sunday before falling back below by mid week next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 614 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014
High pressure and decreasing moisture overspreading the TAF sites
should keep them precipitation free through the period. Even
though the period will start out with clear skies and winds going
calm overnight at KCGI/KPAH, mid level clouds expected to move
southeast across the sites late tonight should preclude dense fog
formation, but may allow MVFR conditions. Westerly winds AOB 5
knots early should go calm to light and variable after 08Z, then
pick up out of the northwest to north AOB 10 knots after 15Z.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Smith
SHORT TERM...DH
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
825 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
THE TRAIN OF SEVERE STORMS AND SUPERCELLS CONTINUES TO ROLL EAST
THROUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY. AS SUCH HAVE EXTENDED THE TORNADO WATCH
THROUGH 11 PM PER CONVERSATION WITH SPC AND NEIGHBORS. HAVE SET UP
THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES AND THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
UPDATED ZONES AND HWO OUT SHORTLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO EXTEND THE TORNADO WATCH A COUPLE OF COUNTIES
SOUTH. THIS WAS MAINLY TO DEAL WITH THE DEVELOPING LINEAR CELLS JUST
OUTSIDE OF ROCKCASTLE COUNTY. THE WCN HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG WITH
UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES. HWO TO FOLLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA. THE WIND FIELD AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH A MID LEVEL SPEED
MAX MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SURGE OF
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION...HAS RESULTED IN A THREAT FOR
SUPERCELLS AND THEIR SEVERE WEATHER ATTRIBUTES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA...WHERE A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT. ON
RADAR...A VERY STRONG/SEVERE CLUSTER OF STORMS IS NOW TRACKING
THROUGH THE WATCH AREA TOWARD EAST KENTUCKY AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
JKL CWA BETWEEN 4:30 AND 6 PM...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER THIS
INITIAL BATCH OF STORMS PASS. A CLEARING OF THE LOWER CLOUDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE EARLIER SHOWERS AND STORMS IS BRINGING TEMPERATURES UP
INTO THE 60S AND 70S THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
10 TO 20 KTS AND GUSTS TO 25 KTS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE LARGE AND DEEP UPPER
LOW SPINNING NORTH OF THE MIDWEST AND ITS ATTENDANT ENERGY PACKET
RACING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. THIS NODE OF
THE UPPER LOW THEN LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR DECENT HEIGHT
RISES IN ITS WAKE. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE A VIRTUAL MATCH WITH THEIR
FLATTENING OF THE PATTERN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. LATER THAT NIGHT
AN OPENING TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNER/S REGION WILL SEND MORE ENERGY
THIS WAY IN THE FAST FLOW LEADING RIGHT INTO KENTUCKY. FOR THE MOST
PART...USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR AND
NAM12 FOR THE NEAR TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A STORMY EVENING FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AREA INTO THE
EVENING. THE STORMS WILL MOVE OFF BY LATE EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ON TAP. FOR WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE US ONE SOLID DAY OF DRY WEATHER WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HOWEVER...THE FRONT THAT PUSHES OFF TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT WILL START TO COME BACK AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BY DAWN IN BOTH THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA AND ALSO ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER.
USED THE CONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 18-24 HOURS BEFORE GOING WITH THE SUPERBLEND
THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR TERRAIN EFFECTS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED
UP MORE SIMILAR TO THE WETTER MET NUMBERS TONIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH THE BROAD
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CANADIAN MARITIMES AND SLOWLY
SHIFTING EAST. MEANWHILE DURING THIS TIME...A RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS WITH A CLOSED LOW BEING THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM SIMON MOVING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. BY THE WEEKEND...A STRONG JET STREAK DIVES OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A TROUGH DEEPENS
FURTHER WITH THE REMNANTS OF SIMON MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS HAVE SEEM TO
COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AS WELL AS THE SUPER BLEND
MODEL...AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SUPER BLEND GAVE A
CONSENSUS OF LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO KEPT THIS SOLUTION
IN THE FORECAST.
FOR DETAILS IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AN EXITING FRONT BECOMES STALLED
AND ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ALONG THE TN VALLEY AND INTO KY DURING THE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD DUE TO STRONG RIDGING ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THIS SETS UP A SCENARIO WHERE NUMEROUS WAVES MOVE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY PROVIDING RAIN CHANCES EVERYDAY DURING THE EXTENDED. THIS
BEING A MORE SPRING LIKE PATTERN OCCURRING THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
VEGETATION ON THE DECLINE COULD MAKE FOR A CONCERN FOR FLOODING IN
THE EXTENDED. WITH THE REMNANTS OF SIMON...THE INFLUX OF GULF
MOISTURE AND AN ACTIVE JET FOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THE INGREDIENTS
MAY BE AVAILABLE FOR THIS EVENT. A FEW DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE
IRONED OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE MODELS HANDLING A TRANSITION IN THE
PATTERN BUT THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
SEVERE AND POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO ROLL EAST
THROUGH THE AREA JUST NORTH OF JACKSON. WITH THESE...IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON WITH BRIEF TIMES OF VLIFR ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 KTS. OTHERWISE...SOUTH OF THIS LINE THINGS WILL BE
QUIETER AND EVERYWHERE CIGS WILL START TO CLEAR UP AFTER 06Z WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND WINDS SWITCHING TO THE
WEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS. WITH THE WINDS STILL ROARING OFF THE GROUND HAVE
ADDED A LLWS REMARK TO THE TAFS THROUGH 04Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PADUCAH KY
613 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 614 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014
Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014
Morning convection has waned as the main cells have departed to
the east. There is still a slgt chance of a perturbation upstream
rotating down/across the FA and touching a storm off this pm, but
the HRRR suggests this is increasingly unlikely. Will maintain a
20 pop mention thru diurnal heating hours.
Drier air works down the column for our mid week and spells the
end of such as a frontal boundary drapes from the Plains across
the Mississippi and Ohio valleys sometime later in the week. This
sets the stage for an extended wet period that begins perhaps as
early as Wed night and continues thru the remainder of the short
term, into/thru the long term portion of the forecast.
.LONG TERM.../Friday through Tuesday/
Issued at 138 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2014
High confidence in a very wet extended forecast. Medium confidence
in the exact timing of the several rounds of rain events.
By Thursday into Friday a front will be stalled over the area
bringing rain to the region. This will combine with remnants of TS
Simon which should make landfall today. This will establish a
tropical connection to the southwest Pacific often referred to as a
monsoonal flow out west. This additional moisture will likely set
the stage for some flooding this weekend as the front meanders over
the heartland and especially early next week when yet another
stronger system will be bearing down on the area. This later system
could produce strong or even severe storms with very efficient/heavy
rain. At this time the models are not too aggressive with
instability but that is a little too far out to rule it out. Between
days 4 through 8 Friday through Wednesday morning we could see
between 3 to 5 inches for a storm total. The limiting factor will be
how much instability the atmosphere can muster.
Temperatures will go below normal Friday through Saturday then near
normal Sunday before falling back below by mid week next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 614 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014
High pressure and decreasing moisture overspreading the TAF sites
should keep them precipitation free through the period. Even
though the period will start out with clear skies and winds going
calm overnight at KCGI/KPAH, mid level clouds expected to move
southeast across the sites late tonight should preclude dense fog
formation, but may allow MVFR conditions. Westerly winds AOB 5
knots early should go calm to light and variable after 08Z, then
pick up out of the northwest to north AOB 10 knots after 15Z.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...KH
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
548 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 548 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
The storms over Southwest Indiana are becoming more elevated with
limited hail potential. Gust front continues to arc out ahead of
convection suggesting that the balance in the upshear flow is
diminishing the wind threat over Southwest Indiana now. Lapse
rates may still be enough to produce 1/2 to 3/4 inch hail, but
with the loss of insolation (sunshine), any significant lift would
have to be carried by the jet max.
Most storms, including the storm over Mclean County KY, continue
to remain below severe limits. Appears that Significant Weather
Advisories (SPS) handle the situation at this time, given the
sharp low level lapse rates.
Although LAPS surface based helicity remains high (>175 m2/s2),
LAPS Surface CAPE continues to diminish sharply over Southeast MO,
Southern IL, and Southwest Indiana. The best surace based CAPE
continues south and east of the Ohio River as of 5 pm with values
between 600-1200 noted in a NW-SE gradient toward the TN state line.
The 3km HRRR runs from 19z-21z show the current convection
departing the CWA by 03z, with weaker, but more widespread
precipitation after 06z. Most severe threat should diminish after
00z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 115 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
The biggest short term challenge will be thunderstorm forecasting
this afternoon and evening. Large scale ascent ahead of short wave
energy seen on wv imagery diving across MO will help drive cold
front into/across FA. Surge of surface Td`s still in the mid-upr
50s across ptns wky will be prime area of potential development,
and SPC has that outlooked for slgt risk. Am seeing beginnings of
developing convection across ptns of Central IL attm, will monitor
closely. Some concern that dry air represented by 40s Td`s just on
our doorstep will overtake column and cut off ability of storms to
develop and esp grow as column dries with time/fropa. Close
weather watch will commence thru press time for final call on near
term pops/coverage.
After that, another trof energy induced pop comes in late tonight-
early tmrw. Following that, we have a dry pause from late Tuesday
thru Wednesday. The next biggest overall pcpn chance begins Wed
night as a smaller chance incoming, posing to continue and increase
into the long term portion of the forecast.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2014
High confidence in a wet unsettled extended forecast. Medium to low
confidence on exact timing of synoptic scale features...especially
this weekend.
Started off with a goal to reduce pops where the least chances will
be but failed to accomplish this due to the fronts meandering over
the area. We start off Thursday with a warm front lifting into the
area then stalling as high pressure north pushes cold air south to
collide with the warm front. This pushes the front a little south of
the area Friday night then lifts through the area Saturday into
Sunday. Then finally Sunday night a strong cold front approaches the
area bringing storms back to the area Sunday night into Monday.
An unusual wet pattern will definitely plague the area with the
possibility of strong storms especially going into next week.
Temperatures will likely fall slight below normal but as warm fronts
lift north of the area we will return to slightly above normal
briefly.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 115 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
VFR conditions may yield to developing convection in the pm heat
today, otherwise should be weather free until late tonight-early
tmrw, when showers/storms move in. Cigs and/or vsbys may restrict to
MVFR at times then.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
245 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
ITS A DIFFICULT DAY TO ANTICIPATE SPECIFIC CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION VERY
FAR IN ADVANCE FOR A FORECAST. HAVE AGAIN UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. WILL EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF PRECIP LATER TODAY IS LOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1014 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
UPDATED TO BLEND LATEST OBS INTO THE FORECAST. THIS INCLUDES
RADAR...WITH FAST MOVING CONVECTION AFFECTING THE REGION THIS
MORNING. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 830 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
HAVE FRESHENED UP THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS FIRST WAVE OF
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 10 AM AND 1 PM. ONCE
THIS MOVES THROUGH...MORE OF A LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA. THIS WILL THEN
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST THE LONGEST. THERE LIKELY NOT BE
MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION...HOWEVER
AT LEAST SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BUILD IN A SMALL WINDOW
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE LINE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. EMBEDDED
CELLS WITHIN THIS LINE WILL POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PIVOTING
ACROSS THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS THE CAROLINA COAST. ALOFT...A MASSIVE TROUGH REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AS THE CORE OF THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS FOUND ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN SEVERAL BOUTS OF THUNDER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
OVERNIGHT...AS A LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP ACROSS THE AREA...ALLOWING A
MORE SUBTLE SURFACE WARM FRONT TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF
THE COOLER VALLEY AIR HAS MIXED OUT...WITH ONLY A FEW SPOTS HANGING
ONTO THE 40S. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING IN THE 50S...WITH
EVEN A FEW 60S ALSO NOTED.
AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...AS STOUT
INTERMITTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WHILE THERE IS
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
WAVES AS WELL AS THE INFLUENCE FROM CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
SOME UNCERTAINTY. AS SUCH...HAVE RELIED ON A GENERAL BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE.
EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS
THE AREA...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. POPS THEN REALLY
RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE FIRST SHORT WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED AS LEAN...HOWEVER
THE DYNAMICS AND SUBSEQUENT WIND PROFILE REMAIN BEEFY. THE STORM MODE
LOOKS MORE SUPERCELLULAR...AND WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME ISOLATED
CELLS ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY EXHIBITING SUPERCELLULAR
CHARACTERISTICS. WET BULB AND FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE NEAR OR
BELOW 9K FEET...WHICH WILL MAKE UP FOR THE LACK OF MORE INTENSE
UPDRAFTS HAMPERED BY THE LIMITED INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WINDS WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH 40 TO 50 KTS OF WIND AT 4 TO 5K FEET OFF OF
THE GROUND.
CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO MORE OF SEVERAL LINES OR
ELONGATED CLUSTERS TOWARDS DUSK AS THE CORE OF THE FORCING MOVES IN
OVERHEAD. PWATS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...HOWEVER ANY TRAINING
CELLS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PUT DOWN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
PLACES. ONCE THE FIRST WAVE MOVES OUT LATER THIS EVENING...A BRIEF
REPRIEVE WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
MOVES IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS...WITH
AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN
WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AND GOOD DYNAMICS DESPITE WEAK
INSTABILITY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT...AT LEAST TO START THE
EXTENDED...BEFORE DIVERGING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEY ALL SHOW A
VERY DEEP AND LARGE MID LEVEL LOW SPINNING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.
A NODE OF THIS WILL BE SWEEPING NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT. AS
HEIGHTS SLOWLY START TO COME UP OVER KENTUCKY A SMALLER TROUGH WILL
BE MAKING ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY.
THIS WESTERN TROUGH WILL OPEN UP AND SEND IT ENERGY EAST INTO THE
FAST FLOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL...
THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LOW THAN THE GEM AND GFS.
THIS STRENGTH ALSO MANIFESTS ITSELF DOWNSTREAM OVER KENTUCKY AS A
BIT MORE RIDGING THROUGH THE WEEKEND THAN THE OTHERS. FOR
SUNDAY...THE GFS SEEMS MOST OUT OF STEP WITH ITS PATTERN COMPARED TO
THE OTHER MODELS AS IT HAS FLAT AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER KENTUCKY.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF...SUPPORTED BY THE GEM...STARTS TO BRING A FAST
MOVING AND QUICKLY DEEPENING TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL FURTHER CONSOLIDATE INTO MONDAY AS A DEEP LOW OVER THE MIDWEST
WITH A SWEEP OF ENERGY PRESSING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL FAVOR THE
MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND THEN LEAN MORE TOWARD
THE ECMWF FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL OCCUR AS AMPLE
MOISTURE...FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MEETS UP WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY
AND A COUPLE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL LIFT
INTO KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY
OVER THE AREA AS COLD AIR TO THE NORTH AND WARM TO THE SOUTH MAKES
FOR A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE STATE. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH AGAIN AS A BONA FIDE WARM FRONT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP SFC LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHER
PLAINS. THIS LATTER SYSTEM WILL THEN LOOK TO SWING ITS ELONGATED
COLD FRONT INTO THIS PART OF THE STATE LATER MONDAY. WITH THE
FORECAST AREA CAUGHT BETWEEN SEASONS THIS EXTENDED...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...BUT WITH A SMALLER THAN AVERAGE DIURNAL RANGE
DUE TO EXTRA CLOUDS AND PCPN AROUND.
THE CR GRID LOAD PROVED TO BE AN ADEQUATE START TO THE EXTENDED
GRIDS...THOUGH DID ADJUST THE POPS A TAD TOWARD THE DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTION FROM THE ECMWF THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. GIVEN
THE FRONTS NEARBY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIODS DID NOT DO TOO MUCH
ADJUSTING TO THE TEMPERATURES AS THE TERRAIN IMPACT WILL BE
RELATIVELY MUTED...EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN A MODERATE RIDGE
TO VALLEY SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 830 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
A COUPLE OF LINES OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THE FIRST LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 14 AND 17Z
FROM WEST TO EAST. A LOT OF THIS CONVECTION IS ELEVATED IN
NATURE...SO ONLY A TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS IS
EXPECTED...WITH MAINLY A VFR STATUS REIGNING. THE SECOND LINE OF
CONVECTION WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 20 AND 01Z. STRONGER
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS LINE...WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR EXPECTED. LOWER CEILINGS WILL THEN SCATTER OUT IN THE
EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...LINGERING THE LONGEST IN FAR
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS...WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS WILL BE COMMON TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1150 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
ITS A DIFFICULT DAY TO ANTICIPATE SPECIFIC CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION VERY
FAR IN ADVANCE FOR A FORECAST. HAVE AGAIN UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. WILL EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF PRECIP LATER TODAY IS LOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1014 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
UPDATED TO BLEND LATEST OBS INTO THE FORECAST. THIS INCLUDES
RADAR...WITH FAST MOVING CONVECTION AFFECTING THE REGION THIS
MORNING. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 830 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
HAVE FRESHENED UP THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS FIRST WAVE OF
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 10 AM AND 1 PM. ONCE
THIS MOVES THROUGH...MORE OF A LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA. THIS WILL THEN
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST THE LONGEST. THERE LIKELY NOT BE
MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION...HOWEVER
AT LEAST SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BUILD IN A SMALL WINDOW
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE LINE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. EMBEDDED
CELLS WITHIN THIS LINE WILL POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PIVOTING
ACROSS THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS THE CAROLINA COAST. ALOFT...A MASSIVE TROUGH REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AS THE CORE OF THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS FOUND ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN SEVERAL BOUTS OF THUNDER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
OVERNIGHT...AS A LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP ACROSS THE AREA...ALLOWING A
MORE SUBTLE SURFACE WARM FRONT TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF
THE COOLER VALLEY AIR HAS MIXED OUT...WITH ONLY A FEW SPOTS HANGING
ONTO THE 40S. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING IN THE 50S...WITH
EVEN A FEW 60S ALSO NOTED.
AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...AS STOUT
INTERMITTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WHILE THERE IS
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
WAVES AS WELL AS THE INFLUENCE FROM CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
SOME UNCERTAINTY. AS SUCH...HAVE RELIED ON A GENERAL BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE.
EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS
THE AREA...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. POPS THEN REALLY
RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE FIRST SHORT WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED AS LEAN...HOWEVER
THE DYNAMICS AND SUBSEQUENT WIND PROFILE REMAIN BEEFY. THE STORM MODE
LOOKS MORE SUPERCELLULAR...AND WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME ISOLATED
CELLS ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY EXHIBITING SUPERCELLULAR
CHARACTERISTICS. WET BULB AND FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE NEAR OR
BELOW 9K FEET...WHICH WILL MAKE UP FOR THE LACK OF MORE INTENSE
UPDRAFTS HAMPERED BY THE LIMITED INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WINDS WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH 40 TO 50 KTS OF WIND AT 4 TO 5K FEET OFF OF
THE GROUND.
CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO MORE OF SEVERAL LINES OR
ELONGATED CLUSTERS TOWARDS DUSK AS THE CORE OF THE FORCING MOVES IN
OVERHEAD. PWATS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...HOWEVER ANY TRAINING
CELLS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PUT DOWN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
PLACES. ONCE THE FIRST WAVE MOVES OUT LATER THIS EVENING...A BRIEF
REPRIEVE WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
MOVES IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS...WITH
AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN
WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AND GOOD DYNAMICS DESPITE WEAK
INSTABILITY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN AND THE EVOLUTION
OF WEATHER SYSTEMS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A
LARGE AND VERY ENERGETIC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH OR WEAK
FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS UPPER LOW WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGIONS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. A SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST
TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE
SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL EVOLVE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY DRAGS A SLUGGISH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS AN AREA EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WOULD BE OUR
SECOND WEATHER MAKER IN THE EXTENDED...SHOULD THE MODELS PROVE TO BE
CORRECT. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM FORMATION
WITH BOTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEMS THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS SHOWING UP...AND WITH STRONG MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVEL WIND FIELDS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PERIODS WILL FEATURE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR NOW...WITH GENERAL RAIN SHOWERS DURING
THE MORNING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH
THE WARMEST READINGS OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS EASTERN
KENTUCKY LIES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING MID LATITUDE
CYCLONE. ONCE THE INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A COOLER AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT COOLER DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER...PRECIPITATION...AND AN AIR MASS CHANGE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S AND LOW TO MID 60S EACH DAY RESPECTIVELY. SUNDAY COULD SEE
A BRIEF REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES...AS WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE RAIN
CHANCES OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN COMING FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAK WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG IT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 830 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
A COUPLE OF LINES OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THE FIRST LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 14 AND 17Z
FROM WEST TO EAST. A LOT OF THIS CONVECTION IS ELEVATED IN
NATURE...SO ONLY A TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS IS
EXPECTED...WITH MAINLY A VFR STATUS REIGNING. THE SECOND LINE OF
CONVECTION WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 20 AND 01Z. STRONGER
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS LINE...WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR EXPECTED. LOWER CEILINGS WILL THEN SCATTER OUT IN THE
EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...LINGERING THE LONGEST IN FAR
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS...WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS WILL BE COMMON TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1015 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
UPDATED TO BLEND LATEST OBS INTO THE FORECAST. THIS INCLUDES
RADAR...WITH FAST MOVING CONVECTION AFFECTING THE REGION THIS
MORNING. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 830 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
HAVE FRESHENED UP THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS FIRST WAVE OF
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 10 AM AND 1 PM. ONCE
THIS MOVES THROUGH...MORE OF A LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA. THIS WILL THEN
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST THE LONGEST. THERE LIKELY NOT BE
MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION...HOWEVER
AT LEAST SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BUILD IN A SMALL WINDOW
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE LINE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. EMBEDDED
CELLS WITHIN THIS LINE WILL POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PIVOTING
ACROSS THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS THE CAROLINA COAST. ALOFT...A MASSIVE TROUGH REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AS THE CORE OF THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS FOUND ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN SEVERAL BOUTS OF THUNDER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
OVERNIGHT...AS A LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP ACROSS THE AREA...ALLOWING A
MORE SUBTLE SURFACE WARM FRONT TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF
THE COOLER VALLEY AIR HAS MIXED OUT...WITH ONLY A FEW SPOTS HANGING
ONTO THE 40S. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING IN THE 50S...WITH
EVEN A FEW 60S ALSO NOTED.
AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...AS STOUT
INTERMITTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WHILE THERE IS
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
WAVES AS WELL AS THE INFLUENCE FROM CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
SOME UNCERTAINTY. AS SUCH...HAVE RELIED ON A GENERAL BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE.
EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS
THE AREA...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. POPS THEN REALLY
RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE FIRST SHORT WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED AS LEAN...HOWEVER
THE DYNAMICS AND SUBSEQUENT WIND PROFILE REMAIN BEEFY. THE STORM MODE
LOOKS MORE SUPERCELLULAR...AND WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME ISOLATED
CELLS ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY EXHIBITING SUPERCELLULAR
CHARACTERISTICS. WET BULB AND FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE NEAR OR
BELOW 9K FEET...WHICH WILL MAKE UP FOR THE LACK OF MORE INTENSE
UPDRAFTS HAMPERED BY THE LIMITED INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WINDS WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH 40 TO 50 KTS OF WIND AT 4 TO 5K FEET OFF OF
THE GROUND.
CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO MORE OF SEVERAL LINES OR
ELONGATED CLUSTERS TOWARDS DUSK AS THE CORE OF THE FORCING MOVES IN
OVERHEAD. PWATS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...HOWEVER ANY TRAINING
CELLS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PUT DOWN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
PLACES. ONCE THE FIRST WAVE MOVES OUT LATER THIS EVENING...A BRIEF
REPRIEVE WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
MOVES IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS...WITH
AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN
WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AND GOOD DYNAMICS DESPITE WEAK
INSTABILITY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN AND THE EVOLUTION
OF WEATHER SYSTEMS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A
LARGE AND VERY ENERGETIC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH OR WEAK
FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS UPPER LOW WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGIONS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. A SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST
TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE
SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL EVOLVE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY DRAGS A SLUGGISH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS AN AREA EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WOULD BE OUR
SECOND WEATHER MAKER IN THE EXTENDED...SHOULD THE MODELS PROVE TO BE
CORRECT. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM FORMATION
WITH BOTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEMS THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS SHOWING UP...AND WITH STRONG MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVEL WIND FIELDS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PERIODS WILL FEATURE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR NOW...WITH GENERAL RAIN SHOWERS DURING
THE MORNING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH
THE WARMEST READINGS OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS EASTERN
KENTUCKY LIES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING MID LATITUDE
CYCLONE. ONCE THE INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A COOLER AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT COOLER DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER...PRECIPITATION...AND AN AIR MASS CHANGE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S AND LOW TO MID 60S EACH DAY RESPECTIVELY. SUNDAY COULD SEE
A BRIEF REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES...AS WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE RAIN
CHANCES OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN COMING FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAK WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG IT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 830 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
A COUPLE OF LINES OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THE FIRST LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 14 AND 17Z
FROM WEST TO EAST. A LOT OF THIS CONVECTION IS ELEVATED IN
NATURE...SO ONLY A TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS IS
EXPECTED...WITH MAINLY A VFR STATUS REIGNING. THE SECOND LINE OF
CONVECTION WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 20 AND 01Z. STRONGER
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS LINE...WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR EXPECTED. LOWER CEILINGS WILL THEN SCATTER OUT IN THE
EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...LINGERING THE LONGEST IN FAR
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS...WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS WILL BE COMMON TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
830 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
HAVE FRESHENED UP THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS FIRST WAVE OF
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 10 AM AND 1 PM. ONCE
THIS MOVES THROUGH...MORE OF A LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA. THIS WILL THEN
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST THE LONGEST. THERE LIKELY NOT BE
MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION...HOWEVER
AT LEAST SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BUILD IN A SMALL WINDOW
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE LINE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. EMBEDDED
CELLS WITHIN THIS LINE WILL POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PIVOTING
ACROSS THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS THE CAROLINA COAST. ALOFT...A MASSIVE TROUGH REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AS THE CORE OF THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS FOUND ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN SEVERAL BOUTS OF THUNDER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
OVERNIGHT...AS A LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP ACROSS THE AREA...ALLOWING A
MORE SUBTLE SURFACE WARM FRONT TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF
THE COOLER VALLEY AIR HAS MIXED OUT...WITH ONLY A FEW SPOTS HANGING
ONTO THE 40S. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING IN THE 50S...WITH
EVEN A FEW 60S ALSO NOTED.
AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...AS STOUT
INTERMITTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WHILE THERE IS
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
WAVES AS WELL AS THE INFLUENCE FROM CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
SOME UNCERTAINTY. AS SUCH...HAVE RELIED ON A GENERAL BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE.
EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS
THE AREA...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. POPS THEN REALLY
RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE FIRST SHORT WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED AS LEAN...HOWEVER
THE DYNAMICS AND SUBSEQUENT WIND PROFILE REMAIN BEEFY. THE STORM MODE
LOOKS MORE SUPERCELLULAR...AND WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME ISOLATED
CELLS ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY EXHIBITING SUPERCELLULAR
CHARACTERISTICS. WET BULB AND FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE NEAR OR
BELOW 9K FEET...WHICH WILL MAKE UP FOR THE LACK OF MORE INTENSE
UPDRAFTS HAMPERED BY THE LIMITED INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WINDS WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH 40 TO 50 KTS OF WIND AT 4 TO 5K FEET OFF OF
THE GROUND.
CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO MORE OF SEVERAL LINES OR
ELONGATED CLUSTERS TOWARDS DUSK AS THE CORE OF THE FORCING MOVES IN
OVERHEAD. PWATS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...HOWEVER ANY TRAINING
CELLS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PUT DOWN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
PLACES. ONCE THE FIRST WAVE MOVES OUT LATER THIS EVENING...A BRIEF
REPRIEVE WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
MOVES IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS...WITH
AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN
WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AND GOOD DYNAMICS DESPITE WEAK
INSTABILITY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN AND THE EVOLUTION
OF WEATHER SYSTEMS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A
LARGE AND VERY ENERGETIC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH OR WEAK
FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS UPPER LOW WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGIONS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. A SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST
TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE
SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL EVOLVE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY DRAGS A SLUGGISH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS AN AREA EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WOULD BE OUR
SECOND WEATHER MAKER IN THE EXTENDED...SHOULD THE MODELS PROVE TO BE
CORRECT. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM FORMATION
WITH BOTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEMS THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS SHOWING UP...AND WITH STRONG MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVEL WIND FIELDS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PERIODS WILL FEATURE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR NOW...WITH GENERAL RAIN SHOWERS DURING
THE MORNING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH
THE WARMEST READINGS OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS EASTERN
KENTUCKY LIES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING MID LATITUDE
CYCLONE. ONCE THE INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A COOLER AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT COOLER DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER...PRECIPITATION...AND AN AIR MASS CHANGE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S AND LOW TO MID 60S EACH DAY RESPECTIVELY. SUNDAY COULD SEE
A BRIEF REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES...AS WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE RAIN
CHANCES OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN COMING FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAK WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG IT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 830 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
A COUPLE OF LINES OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THE FIRST LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 14 AND 17Z
FROM WEST TO EAST. A LOT OF THIS CONVECTION IS ELEVATED IN
NATURE...SO ONLY A TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS IS
EXPECTED...WITH MAINLY A VFR STATUS REIGNING. THE SECOND LINE OF
CONVECTION WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 20 AND 01Z. STRONGER
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS LINE...WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR EXPECTED. LOWER CEILINGS WILL THEN SCATTER OUT IN THE
EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...LINGERING THE LONGEST IN FAR
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS...WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS WILL BE COMMON TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
156 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 105 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH PROBABLY AS MANY
THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE ARE SHOWERS OUT THERE. HAVE BEEFED UP THE POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS. THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO BE
THE MAIN CULPRIT FOR THIS ACTIVITY...WITH EVEN AN EMBEDDED SURFACE
WAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH A LITTLE MORE SUBTLE WARM
FRONT STEMMING SOUTHEAST. THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE
CENTRAL KENTUCKY CONVECTION INTO OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4
HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT DOES WEAKEN AS IT HEADS TO OUR FAR EAST...WHERE
LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR IS HANGING A BIT MORE TOUGH. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...SO HAVE FOLLOWED THIS IDEA THROUGH DAWN. TEMPERATURES
ARE VARYING QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BOONEVILLE
MESONET...NORMALLY MORE OF A VALLEY LOCATION CURRENTLY REPORTING AT
59 DEGREES...WHILE THE QUICKSAND MESONET IS STILL IN THE MID 40S.
EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE IS THE WHITESBURG MESONET...WHICH STARTED OUT AT
A COOL 45 DEGREES AT MIDNIGHT. AFTER SOME MIXING TOOK PLACE IN THE
PAST HOUR...IT IS NOW REPORTING 61 DEGREES. EXPECT THIS GRADUAL
SCOURING OUT OF THE COOLER VALLEY AIR TO CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1148 PM EDT SUN OCT 5
2014
THE SHORT WAVE BLOSSOMED AS IT APPROACHED EASTERN KENTUCKY AND HAS
EVEN BEEN ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CHANGED THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. THE TIME STILL LOOKED GOOD
FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST. LOOKING AT THE 00 GMT NAM...LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM BUFR WAS MILDLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEEING A SUPER
CELL OR TWO DEVELOP. WILL BE MONITORING THE SITUATION AS THE NEW GFS
BEGINS TO COME IN. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 914 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL TRY TO PUT SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. CHANGED THE FORECAST FROM MEASURABLE SHOWERS TO
SPRINKLES FOR TONIGHT. IN THE MORNING THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE MODELS DIFFER QUITE A
BIT ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT SHAKY. WAS
CHECKING A TIME HEIGHT FORECAST FOR JACKSON COMPARING THE NAM AND GFS
AND THE DIFFERENCES WERE STARK. HAD TO DO A BIT OF A MODEL BLEND. THE
NAM BUFFER SOUNDING FOR JKL FOR 4 PM TOMORROW HAS SOME IMPRESSIVE
INSTABILITY WITH TOTAL TOTALS OF 52 AND A LIFTER INDEX OF -4 WITH
1200 JOULES OF CAPE. THE HELICITY IS FORECAST TO BE 254. WITH ALL OF
THESE PARAMETERS IN PLAY...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TOMORROW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
THE DOWN SIDE IS THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL IS LOW...SO WILL HAVE
TO SEE WHAT SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS DO WITH IT. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF COAST REGION KEEPING THE ADVANCEMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AT BAY. THIS WILL KEEP
MUCH OF THE PRECIP...IF ANY TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND MOSTLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE REST OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT.
MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DURING THE MONDAY
TIMER PERIOD...A STRONG JET STREAK PUSHES INTO THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO THE OH VALLEY ON MONDAY AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE ENTERS
THE REGION. THIS INFLUX OF ENERGY WILL COINCIDE WITH A SURFACE COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW WEAK TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY INTO MONDAY EVENING AND WITH THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR
AVAILABLE...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY BE ON TAP FOR
MONDAY EVENING AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SPC CONTINUES TO KEEP THE
ENTIRE CWA IN A 5% RISK WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA IN
A 15% RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. STILL BELIEVE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR
THIS EVENT WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH THE BEST INGREDIENTS STILL TO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST IN CENTRAL TN AND SOUTH CENTRAL KY. STILL...SOME
CELLS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE I-75 CORRIDOR SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THE THREAT IN THE HWO.
HEADING INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE CENTERED JUST ALONG THE NC COAST...WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE FRONT STALLED OUT ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN WITH PRECIP EXPECTED ALONG EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME AND WILL KEEP POPS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS FOR OUR AREA UNTIL
FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
TUESDAY. ADVECTION OF MILD AND MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THESES FEATURES WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS. DEEP INSTABILITY LOOKS
MARGINAL...WITH PRECIP LIKELY INHIBITING WARMING DURING THE DAY...
AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER. WINDS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN AND VEER BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WIND FIELDS BECOMING
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WX. SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL ALSO OCCUR IN
THE MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...WARMING ALOFT IS ALSO EXPECTED...AND THERE
WILL LIKELY NOT BE TIME FOR MUCH SURFACE HEATING...WHICH IN THE END
WILL LIKELY PREVENT SEVERE WX. THE SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE WATCH IN
CASE IT CHANGES. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS TUESDAY EVENING...WITH
SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER AIR BUILDING IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND THEN RIPPLE ENE...PULLING THE FRONT
BACK NORTH INTO KY ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE
PRECIP.
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW UP FROM FRIDAY ONWARD.
THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT...TAKING THE FRONT AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH BY FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT
STALLS. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH...
KEEPING PRECIP IN OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITHOUT CLARITY AND
CONFIDENCE AS TO WHERE THE FRONT WILL END UP...HAVE HELD ONTO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH 08Z. MOST OF THESE HAVE NOT BROUGHT ANY CEILING OR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WHEN PASSING OVER A GIVEN LOCATION...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE VFR...ALTHOUGH WILL MENTION A WINDOW OF VCTS AT
ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15
KTS WILL ALSO BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY IN WIDE OPEN AREAS AND RIDGETOP
LOCATIONS. SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KTS HAVE ALSO OCCURRED WITH ANY
PASSING INTENSE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH CONVECTION
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD EVEN APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
GIVE WAY TO MVFR BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...AS MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
105 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 105 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH PROBABLY AS MANY
THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE ARE SHOWERS OUT THERE. HAVE BEEFED UP THE POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS. THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO BE
THE MAIN CULPRIT FOR THIS ACTIVITY...WITH EVEN AN EMBEDDED SURFACE
WAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH A LITTLE MORE SUBTLE WARM
FRONT STEMMING SOUTHEAST. THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE
CENTRAL KENTUCKY CONVECTION INTO OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4
HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT DOES WEAKEN AS IT HEADS TO OUR FAR EAST...WHERE
LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR IS HANGING A BIT MORE TOUGH. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...SO HAVE FOLLOWED THIS IDEA THROUGH DAWN. TEMPERATURES
ARE VARYING QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BOONEVILLE
MESONET...NORMALLY MORE OF A VALLEY LOCATION CURRENTLY REPORTING AT
59 DEGREES...WHILE THE QUICKSAND MESONET IS STILL IN THE MID 40S.
EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE IS THE WHITESBURG MESONET...WHICH STARTED OUT AT
A COOL 45 DEGREES AT MIDNIGHT. AFTER SOME MIXING TOOK PLACE IN THE
PAST HOUR...IT IS NOW REPORTING 61 DEGREES. EXPECT THIS GRADUAL
SCOURING OUT OF THE COOLER VALLEY AIR TO CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1148 PM EDT SUN OCT 5
2014
THE SHORT WAVE BLOSSOMED AS IT APPROACHED EASTERN KENTUCKY AND HAS
EVEN BEEN ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CHANGED THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. THE TIME STILL LOOKED GOOD
FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST. LOOKING AT THE 00 GMT NAM...LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM BUFR WAS MILDLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEEING A SUPER
CELL OR TWO DEVELOP. WILL BE MONITORING THE SITUATION AS THE NEW GFS
BEGINS TO COME IN. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 914 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL TRY TO PUT SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. CHANGED THE FORECAST FROM MEASURABLE SHOWERS TO
SPRINKLES FOR TONIGHT. IN THE MORNING THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE MODELS DIFFER QUITE A
BIT ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT SHAKY. WAS
CHECKING A TIME HEIGHT FORECAST FOR JACKSON COMPARING THE NAM AND GFS
AND THE DIFFERENCES WERE STARK. HAD TO DO A BIT OF A MODEL BLEND. THE
NAM BUFFER SOUNDING FOR JKL FOR 4 PM TOMORROW HAS SOME IMPRESSIVE
INSTABILITY WITH TOTAL TOTALS OF 52 AND A LIFTER INDEX OF -4 WITH
1200 JOULES OF CAPE. THE HELICITY IS FORECAST TO BE 254. WITH ALL OF
THESE PARAMETERS IN PLAY...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TOMORROW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
THE DOWN SIDE IS THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL IS LOW...SO WILL HAVE
TO SEE WHAT SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS DO WITH IT. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF COAST REGION KEEPING THE ADVANCEMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AT BAY. THIS WILL KEEP
MUCH OF THE PRECIP...IF ANY TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND MOSTLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE REST OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT.
MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DURING THE MONDAY
TIMER PERIOD...A STRONG JET STREAK PUSHES INTO THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO THE OH VALLEY ON MONDAY AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE ENTERS
THE REGION. THIS INFLUX OF ENERGY WILL COINCIDE WITH A SURFACE COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW WEAK TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY INTO MONDAY EVENING AND WITH THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR
AVAILABLE...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY BE ON TAP FOR
MONDAY EVENING AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SPC CONTINUES TO KEEP THE
ENTIRE CWA IN A 5% RISK WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA IN
A 15% RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. STILL BELIEVE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR
THIS EVENT WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH THE BEST INGREDIENTS STILL TO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST IN CENTRAL TN AND SOUTH CENTRAL KY. STILL...SOME
CELLS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE I-75 CORRIDOR SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THE THREAT IN THE HWO.
HEADING INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE CENTERED JUST ALONG THE NC COAST...WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE FRONT STALLED OUT ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN WITH PRECIP EXPECTED ALONG EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME AND WILL KEEP POPS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS FOR OUR AREA UNTIL
FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
TUESDAY. ADVECTION OF MILD AND MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THESES FEATURES WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS. DEEP INSTABILITY LOOKS
MARGINAL...WITH PRECIP LIKELY INHIBITING WARMING DURING THE DAY...
AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER. WINDS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN AND VEER BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WIND FIELDS BECOMING
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WX. SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL ALSO OCCUR IN
THE MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...WARMING ALOFT IS ALSO EXPECTED...AND THERE
WILL LIKELY NOT BE TIME FOR MUCH SURFACE HEATING...WHICH IN THE END
WILL LIKELY PREVENT SEVERE WX. THE SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE WATCH IN
CASE IT CHANGES. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS TUESDAY EVENING...WITH
SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER AIR BUILDING IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND THEN RIPPLE ENE...PULLING THE FRONT
BACK NORTH INTO KY ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE
PRECIP.
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW UP FROM FRIDAY ONWARD.
THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT...TAKING THE FRONT AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH BY FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT
STALLS. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH...
KEEPING PRECIP IN OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITHOUT CLARITY AND
CONFIDENCE AS TO WHERE THE FRONT WILL END UP...HAVE HELD ONTO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 914 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. SOME SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FIRST SHORT
WAVE. IN THE MORNING A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
AREA. THIS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE
INSTABILITY TOMORROW...SO THERE WILL A BE CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. PUT SOME IN THE FORECAST STARTING AT
AROUND 20Z. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON THE HEATING A CLOUD COVER. EXPECTING
VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. IFR IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
STRONGER STORMS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1245 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.AVIATION...
STG BOW ECHO LINE OF TSTMS MOVED SOUTH ACROSS AREA THIS AM. STABLE
AIR IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH THICK MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS...
WILL INHIBIT ANY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU AT LEAST 07/06Z ACROSS AREA...EXCEPT FOR
A FEW TRANSIENT LOW CLOUDS. HOWEVER...CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AND
WET GROUND ACROSS NE TX...AND LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING OVER NORTH LA...
WILL COMBINE FOR POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS ACROSS MUCH OF AREA AFTER
07/06Z. POSSIBLE MCS REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT FURTHER TO THE EAST
THAN LAST NIGHT...THUS KELD AND POSSIBLY KMLU COULD SEE LATE NIGHT
TSTMS IN DEEP NW FLOW ALOFT. S-SW WINDS INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KTS
AFTER 07/14Z SHOULD LIFT ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS FOR REMAINDER OF TUESDAY./VII/.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST AROUND NOON...LOWERING THE AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND ALSO LOWERING
THE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN. THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST
FLOW AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT WILL ADDRESS THIS AGAIN WITH THE 4 PM
FORECAST. /14/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 823 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST. DID MENTION HEAVY
RAIN...BUT ANY MORE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ISOLATED...AS CURRENT
TRENDS INDICATE SOME WEAKENING. TEMPS ADJUSTED...AS THEY WILL BE
SLOWER TO WARM WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...BUT SHOULD RECOVER FAST
IN THE AFTERNOON. /14/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WILL BE BRIEF THIS MORNING AS STRONG CONVECTION ENTERING OUR CWA
AND THE LATENESS OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z ECMWF WILL NOT ALLOW FOR A
LENGTHY DISCUSSION.
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND A 45KT LOW LEVEL JET IS HELPING TO FEED THIS STRONG
TO SOMETIMES SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY
OF S OK/SW AR INTO N TX ATTM. THREW OUT THE 00Z NAM OUTPUT AS IT
HAS A POOR HANDLING OF CURRENT CONVECTION. TODAY`S POP WAS BASED ON
THE HRRR/GFS/ECMWF/CMC OUTPUT WHICH WARRANTS HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR REGION TODAY. SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF
OUR REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE CONVECTION TODAY AND WHILE
THIS IS WARRANTED...DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
CONVECTION WITH THIS COMPLEX. HOWEVER...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
SVR WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
IF THE HRRR MODEL PANS OUT...THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD SWING
THROUGH OUR ENTIRE CWA TODAY BUT REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW LEFT
BEHIND FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION AND THE DEGREE OF AFTERNOON
HEATING WE ARE ABLE TO SEE. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
A RESULT. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR NORTHERN MOST ZONES OVERNIGHT
AS PROGS SUGGEST THAT WE COULD SEE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OVERNIGHT
BUT AGAIN...THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH A
WEAK BOUNDARY CAN REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT.
LOW POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO AFTERNOON HEATING.
FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE PROGS REMAIN IN POOR
AGREEMENT CONCERNING TIMING OF OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES. THE 00Z GFS
REMAINS THE FAST OUTLIER SO HAVE TRENDED TEMPS/POPS TO THE 00Z
ECMWF/CMC RUNS WHICH POINT TO A SLOWER TROUGH EJECTION FROM THE
WEST AND SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT INTO OUR REGION. THIS RESULT IN A
WET WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 84 69 91 70 91 / 20 20 20 10 10
MLU 83 66 90 67 91 / 20 30 20 10 20
DEQ 82 63 89 65 88 / 30 40 20 10 10
TXK 84 67 90 69 88 / 30 40 20 10 10
ELD 83 64 88 66 88 / 20 40 20 10 10
TYR 84 70 91 71 91 / 20 20 10 10 10
GGG 84 70 91 69 91 / 20 20 10 10 10
LFK 83 69 92 70 91 / 20 20 10 10 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1140 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST AROUND NOON...LOWERING THE AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND ALSO LOWERING
THE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN. THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST
FLOW AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT WILL ADDRESS THIS AGAIN WITH THE 4 PM
FORECAST. /14/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 823 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST. DID MENTION HEAVY
RAIN...BUT ANY MORE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ISOLATED...AS CURRENT
TRENDS INDICATE SOME WEAKENING. TEMPS ADJUSTED...AS THEY WILL BE
SLOWER TO WARM WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...BUT SHOULD RECOVER FAST
IN THE AFTERNOON. /14/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 06/12Z TAFS...INTENSE LINE OF TSTMS AFFECTING TYR/GGG/SHV
TO BEGIN THIS TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR CIGS...REDUCED VSBYS AND WIND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35-40KTS WITH THIS LINE OF CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE
VCNTY SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED THIS MORNING BUT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AT TXK/ELD AS CONVECTION MOVES SOUTH. LFK/MLU TERMINALS MAY STILL
BE UNDER THE GUN AS LINE OF TSTMS MOVES SOUTH AND EAST. CONVECTION
SHOULD GRADUALLY WRAP UP BY LATE MORNING ALONG THE I-20 TERMINALS
AND EARLY AFTERNOON FARTHER SOUTH AT LFK. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY
FROM THE SOUTH OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WITH SPEEDS FROM 5-10 KTS BUT
WIDELY VARYING WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN AREAS OF CONVECTION. FOG AND
LOW STRATUS WILL BE A CONCERN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
WINDS DROP OFF OVERNIGHT AND GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
/19/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WILL BE BRIEF THIS MORNING AS STRONG CONVECTION ENTERING OUR CWA
AND THE LATENESS OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z ECMWF WILL NOT ALLOW FOR A
LENGTHY DISCUSSION.
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND A 45KT LOW LEVEL JET IS HELPING TO FEED THIS STRONG
TO SOMETIMES SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY
OF S OK/SW AR INTO N TX ATTM. THREW OUT THE 00Z NAM OUTPUT AS IT
HAS A POOR HANDLING OF CURRENT CONVECTION. TODAY`S POP WAS BASED ON
THE HRRR/GFS/ECMWF/CMC OUTPUT WHICH WARRANTS HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR REGION TODAY. SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF
OUR REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE CONVECTION TODAY AND WHILE
THIS IS WARRANTED...DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
CONVECTION WITH THIS COMPLEX. HOWEVER...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
SVR WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
IF THE HRRR MODEL PANS OUT...THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD SWING
THROUGH OUR ENTIRE CWA TODAY BUT REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW LEFT
BEHIND FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION AND THE DEGREE OF AFTERNOON
HEATING WE ARE ABLE TO SEE. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
A RESULT. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR NORTHERN MOST ZONES OVERNIGHT
AS PROGS SUGGEST THAT WE COULD SEE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OVERNIGHT
BUT AGAIN...THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH A
WEAK BOUNDARY CAN REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT.
LOW POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO AFTERNOON HEATING.
FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE PROGS REMAIN IN POOR
AGREEMENT CONCERNING TIMING OF OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES. THE 00Z GFS
REMAINS THE FAST OUTLIER SO HAVE TRENDED TEMPS/POPS TO THE 00Z
ECMWF/CMC RUNS WHICH POINT TO A SLOWER TROUGH EJECTION FROM THE
WEST AND SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT INTO OUR REGION. THIS RESULT IN A
WET WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 84 69 91 70 91 / 20 20 20 10 10
MLU 83 66 90 67 91 / 20 30 20 10 20
DEQ 82 63 89 65 88 / 30 40 20 10 10
TXK 84 67 90 69 88 / 30 40 20 10 10
ELD 83 64 88 66 88 / 20 40 20 10 10
TYR 84 70 91 71 91 / 20 20 10 10 10
GGG 84 70 91 69 91 / 20 20 10 10 10
LFK 83 69 92 70 91 / 20 20 10 10 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
823 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST. DID MENTION HEAVY
RAIN...BUT ANY MORE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ISOLATED...AS CURRENT
TRENDS INDICATE SOME WEAKENING. TEMPS ADJUSTED...AS THEY WILL BE
SLOWER TO WARM WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...BUT SHOULD RECOVER FAST
IN THE AFTERNOON. /14/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 06/12Z TAFS...INTENSE LINE OF TSTMS AFFECTING TYR/GGG/SHV
TO BEGIN THIS TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR CIGS...REDUCED VSBYS AND WIND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35-40KTS WITH THIS LINE OF CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE
VCNTY SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED THIS MORNING BUT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AT TXK/ELD AS CONVECTION MOVES SOUTH. LFK/MLU TERMINALS MAY STILL
BE UNDER THE GUN AS LINE OF TSTMS MOVES SOUTH AND EAST. CONVECTION
SHOULD GRADUALLY WRAP UP BY LATE MORNING ALONG THE I-20 TERMINALS
AND EARLY AFTERNOON FARTHER SOUTH AT LFK. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY
FROM THE SOUTH OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WITH SPEEDS FROM 5-10 KTS BUT
WIDELY VARYING WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN AREAS OF CONVECTION. FOG AND
LOW STRATUS WILL BE A CONCERN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
WINDS DROP OFF OVERNIGHT AND GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
/19/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WILL BE BRIEF THIS MORNING AS STRONG CONVECTION ENTERING OUR CWA
AND THE LATENESS OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z ECMWF WILL NOT ALLOW FOR A
LENGTHY DISCUSSION.
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND A 45KT LOW LEVEL JET IS HELPING TO FEED THIS STRONG
TO SOMETIMES SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY
OF S OK/SW AR INTO N TX ATTM. THREW OUT THE 00Z NAM OUTPUT AS IT
HAS A POOR HANDLING OF CURRENT CONVECTION. TODAY`S POP WAS BASED ON
THE HRRR/GFS/ECMWF/CMC OUTPUT WHICH WARRANTS HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR REGION TODAY. SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF
OUR REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE CONVECTION TODAY AND WHILE
THIS IS WARRANTED...DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
CONVECTION WITH THIS COMPLEX. HOWEVER...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
SVR WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
IF THE HRRR MODEL PANS OUT...THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD SWING
THROUGH OUR ENTIRE CWA TODAY BUT REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW LEFT
BEHIND FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION AND THE DEGREE OF AFTERNOON
HEATING WE ARE ABLE TO SEE. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
A RESULT. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR NORTHERN MOST ZONES OVERNIGHT
AS PROGS SUGGEST THAT WE COULD SEE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OVERNIGHT
BUT AGAIN...THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH A
WEAK BOUNDARY CAN REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT.
LOW POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO AFTERNOON HEATING.
FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE PROGS REMAIN IN POOR
AGREEMENT CONCERNING TIMING OF OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES. THE 00Z GFS
REMAINS THE FAST OUTLIER SO HAVE TRENDED TEMPS/POPS TO THE 00Z
ECMWF/CMC RUNS WHICH POINT TO A SLOWER TROUGH EJECTION FROM THE
WEST AND SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT INTO OUR REGION. THIS RESULT IN A
WET WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 85 69 91 70 91 / 50 20 20 10 10
MLU 84 66 90 67 91 / 50 30 20 10 20
DEQ 82 63 89 65 88 / 40 40 20 10 10
TXK 84 67 90 69 88 / 40 40 20 10 10
ELD 83 64 88 66 88 / 40 40 20 10 10
TYR 85 70 91 71 91 / 60 20 10 10 10
GGG 85 70 91 69 91 / 60 20 10 10 10
LFK 87 69 92 70 91 / 70 20 10 10 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
701 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06/12Z TAFS...INTENSE LINE OF TSTMS AFFECTING TYR/GGG/SHV
TO BEGIN THIS TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR CIGS...REDUCED VSBYS AND WIND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35-40KTS WITH THIS LINE OF CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE
VCNTY SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED THIS MORNING BUT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AT TXK/ELD AS CONVECTION MOVES SOUTH. LFK/MLU TERMINALS MAY STILL
BE UNDER THE GUN AS LINE OF TSTMS MOVES SOUTH AND EAST. CONVECTION
SHOULD GRADUALLY WRAP UP BY LATE MORNING ALONG THE I-20 TERMINALS
AND EARLY AFTERNOON FARTHER SOUTH AT LFK. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY
FROM THE SOUTH OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WITH SPEEDS FROM 5-10 KTS BUT
WIDELY VARYING WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN AREAS OF CONVECTION. FOG AND
LOW STRATUS WILL BE A CONCERN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
WINDS DROP OFF OVERNIGHT AND GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
/19/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WILL BE BRIEF THIS MORNING AS STRONG CONVECTION ENTERING OUR CWA
AND THE LATENESS OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z ECMWF WILL NOT ALLOW FOR A
LENGTHY DISCUSSION.
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND A 45KT LOW LEVEL JET IS HELPING TO FEED THIS STRONG
TO SOMETIMES SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY
OF S OK/SW AR INTO N TX ATTM. THREW OUT THE 00Z NAM OUTPUT AS IT
HAS A POOR HANDLING OF CURRENT CONVECTION. TODAY`S POP WAS BASED ON
THE HRRR/GFS/ECMWF/CMC OUTPUT WHICH WARRANTS HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR REGION TODAY. SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF
OUR REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE CONVECTION TODAY AND WHILE
THIS IS WARRANTED...DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
CONVECTION WITH THIS COMPLEX. HOWEVER...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
SVR WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
IF THE HRRR MODEL PANS OUT...THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD SWING
THROUGH OUR ENTIRE CWA TODAY BUT REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW LEFT
BEHIND FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION AND THE DEGREE OF AFTERNOON
HEATING WE ARE ABLE TO SEE. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
A RESULT. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR NORTHERN MOST ZONES OVERNIGHT
AS PROGS SUGGEST THAT WE COULD SEE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OVERNIGHT
BUT AGAIN...THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH A
WEAK BOUNDARY CAN REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT.
LOW POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO AFTERNOON HEATING.
FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE PROGS REMAIN IN POOR
AGREEMENT CONCERNING TIMING OF OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES. THE 00Z GFS
REMAINS THE FAST OUTLIER SO HAVE TRENDED TEMPS/POPS TO THE 00Z
ECMWF/CMC RUNS WHICH POINT TO A SLOWER TROUGH EJECTION FROM THE
WEST AND SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT INTO OUR REGION. THIS RESULT IN A
WET WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 85 69 91 70 91 / 50 20 20 10 10
MLU 84 66 90 67 91 / 50 30 20 10 20
DEQ 82 63 89 65 88 / 40 40 20 10 10
TXK 84 67 90 69 88 / 50 40 20 10 10
ELD 83 64 88 66 88 / 50 40 20 10 10
TYR 85 70 91 71 91 / 50 20 10 10 10
GGG 85 70 91 69 91 / 50 20 10 10 10
LFK 87 69 92 70 91 / 40 20 10 10 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
342 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
WILL BE BRIEF THIS MORNING AS STRONG CONVECTION ENTERING OUR CWA
AND THE LATENESS OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z ECMWF WILL NOT ALLOW FOR A
LENGTHY DISCUSSION.
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND A 45KT LOW LEVEL JET IS HELPING TO FEED THIS STRONG
TO SOMETIMES SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY
OF S OK/SW AR INTO N TX ATTM. THREW OUT THE 00Z NAM OUTPUT AS IT
HAS A POOR HANDLING OF CURRENT CONVECTION. TODAY`S POP WAS BASED ON
THE HRRR/GFS/ECMWF/CMC OUTPUT WHICH WARRANTS HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR REGION TODAY. SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF
OUR REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE CONVECTION TODAY AND WHILE
THIS IS WARRANTED...DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
CONVECTION WITH THIS COMPLEX. HOWEVER...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
SVR WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
IF THE HRRR MODEL PANS OUT...THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD SWING
THROUGH OUR ENTIRE CWA TODAY BUT REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW LEFT
BEHIND FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION AND THE DEGREE OF AFTERNOON
HEATING WE ARE ABLE TO SEE. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
A RESULT. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR NORTHERN MOST ZONES OVERNIGHT
AS PROGS SUGGEST THAT WE COULD SEE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OVERNIGHT
BUT AGAIN...THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH A
WEAK BOUNDARY CAN REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT.
LOW POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO AFTERNOON HEATING.
FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE PROGS REMAIN IN POOR
AGREEMENT CONCERNING TIMING OF OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES. THE 00Z GFS
REMAINS THE FAST OUTLIER SO HAVE TRENDED TEMPS/POPS TO THE 00Z
ECMWF/CMC RUNS WHICH POINT TO A SLOWER TROUGH EJECTION FROM THE
WEST AND SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT INTO OUR REGION. THIS RESULT IN A
WET WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 85 69 91 70 91 / 50 20 20 10 10
MLU 84 66 90 67 91 / 50 30 20 10 20
DEQ 82 63 89 65 88 / 40 40 20 10 10
TXK 84 67 90 69 88 / 50 40 20 10 10
ELD 83 64 88 66 88 / 50 40 20 10 10
TYR 85 70 91 71 91 / 50 20 10 10 10
GGG 85 70 91 69 91 / 50 20 10 10 10
LFK 87 69 92 70 91 / 40 20 10 10 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
207 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY...THEN MOVE
EAST TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSS
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST
THROUGH QUEBEC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
145 PM UPDATE...THE SKY CONDITIONS NEEDED ADJUSTMENT TO INCREASE
THE PERCENTAGES AS THE NAM12 AND RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWED MOISTURE AT
850MBS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE CAR 12Z RAOB AND SATELLITE
VISIBLE IMAGERY STRATOCUMULUS POPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF MAINE. MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WERE RAISED A CATEGORY SHOWING LOWER 60S FOR NORTHERN AREAS AND
60-65 CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS INCLUDING THE COAST. THE LAMP
GUIDANCE WAS HANDLING THINGS WELL PER THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
OBS W/A SSW WIND PICKING UP AIDING IN SOME WARMER AIR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE A
LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL EXIST AROUND 850 MB TODAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHWEST MAINE. AS SUCH, EXPECT FEW
TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS TO POP UP AS MIXING OCCURS FROM
DAYTIME HEATING.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE AND
ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTH
FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER TONIGHT THAN THOSE
SEEN LAST NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S PRETTY MUCH
EVERYWHERE, WITH UPPER 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUE WILL BEGIN WITH INCREASING CLDNSS AS A LEAD S/WV ALF
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW TO MID LVL WARM ADVCN APCHS THE FA FROM THE
GREAT LKS. SHWRS AND STEADY RN ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM INTO WRN
PTNS OF THE FA BY ERLY AFTN AND THEN SPREADS OVR THE REST OF THE
REGION BY EVE. INTERMITTENT SHWRS AND DZ AND PATCHY COASTAL FOG
WILL CONT LATE TUE NGT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING FIRST S/WV...AND A
MUCH STRONGER SECOND S/WV AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW FROM THE GREAT
LKS. THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW BY
WED MORN...BRINGING A PD OF MDT TO HVY RNFL WHICH SHOULD LAST
INTO ERLY AFTN THEN END W TO E ACROSS THE FA LATER IN THE AFT AS
AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS N AND A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THE
TMG OF THE RNFL AND AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YSTDY`S RN
EVENT...WITH AMOUNTS MSLY IN THE 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH RANGE PRIOR
TO ENDING...LCLY HIGHER RNFL ALG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CNTRL ME
HIGHLANDS AND THE MTNS IN THE BAXTER ST PARK REGION WHERE THERE
WILL BE AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT WITH A SSE WIND FIELD. POPS WERE
BROUGHT UP THIS UPDATE TO 90 PERCENT DURING THE CORE OF THE EVENT
WED MORN.
SPEAKING OF WINDS...THEY COULD BE AN ISSUE ON WED...SPCLY ALG AND
JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHERE STRONGER WINDS ALF COULD
POTENTIALLY MIX DOWN. FCST WINDS WERE INCREASED FOR WED...BUT WILL
HOLD OFF BRINGING WINDS UP TO WHAT GUIDANCE IS REALLY SUGGESTING
FOR LATER WED...IN THE EVENT MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS LIKE THE OPNL
GFS...IS TO STRONG WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW AS IT TRACKS
NE ALG THE ST LAWRENCE RVR VLY OF ERN QB PROV.
AFT WARMER THAN AVG TEMPS TUE NGT AND WED ACROSS THE REGION...WED
NGT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH PTLY TO
MSLY CLDY SKIES N AND CLRG SKIES S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THU THRU SAT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER AS A SERIES OF WEAK S/WVS
CROSS THE REGION...BRINGING INTERVALS OF CLDNSS AND ATTMS...ISOLD
SHWRS TO THE REGION. A WEAK SFC LOW TRACKING OFF THE MID ATLC
STATES ON FRI COULD GRAZE COASTAL DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA WITH A
BETTER CHC OF SHWRS FRI INTO FRI EVE...BUT FOR NOW...MOST LONGER
RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS MOST OF THE RNFL WITH THIS SYSTEM S OF THE
FA. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL THRU THIS PD...WITH LITTLE OR
NO OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NGT DUE TO CONTD GRAD
WINDS.
EVENTUALLY...STRONG SFC HI PRES FROM THE MIDWEST WILL APCH THE
REGION BY SUN...BRINGING MORE IN THE WAY OF FAIR WX...A BETTER
CHC OF RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR SUN NGT AS IT CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS TUE WILL LOWER TO IFR OVRNGT
TUE S TO N ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AS LOW ST CLGS MOVE NWRD FROM THE
GULF OF ME AND SHWRS/RN MOVE EWRD FROM QB PROV...THEN CONT INTO WED
IN RN...RECOVERING TO MVFR SW TO NE AS RN TAPERS TO SHWRS.
MOST SITES RECOVER TO VFR BY WED NGT WITH MVFR PERHAPS HANGING ON
OVR FAR NRN SITES INTO THU MORN...SUCH AS KFVE. ALL SITES SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THU INTO FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: WINDS AND WVS SLOWLY INCREASE TUE INTO TUE NGT
AS A SRLY WIND FETCH INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS
XPCTD TO CROSS THE WATERS LATER WED. WINDS AND WVS COULD REACH SCA
CRITERIA AS EARLY AS LATE TUE NGT AND THEN CONT AS LONG AS THU MORN
OR SO...SPCLY OVR THE OUTER WATERS. IN ADDITION TO RN...MARINE FOG
MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO A MILE OR LESS LATE TUE NGT INTO WED MORN AS
DWPTS GREATER THAN GULF OF ME SST`S ARE ADVCTD NWRD OVR THE WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH BLO SCA CRITERIA BY
LATER THU AND REMAIN BLO SCA FRI.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1156 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 505 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP A COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA BY THIS WEEKEND A
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA BRINGING DRIER BUT STILL
COOL WEATHER. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY AS A SFC
TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER
MICHIGAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
LAST OF THE DIURNAL CONVECTION WORKING ITS WAY OFF OF THE NE LOWER
MI COAST. WELL- DEFINED COLD FRONT MOVING OUT ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE MI AND INTO EASTERN UPPER. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
BRIEF SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION CONTRIBUTING TO POST-FRONTAL LAKE
ENHANCED SHRA. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL...THOUGH WAS
PERHAPS A BIT SLOW WITH PRECIP ONSET. SOME ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN
MADE IN THIS REGARD...BUT THE IDEA OF SHRA BECOMING NUMEROUS IN
WNW TO NW FLOW REGIMES IS REASONABLE.
ADJUSTMENTS ALSO MADE FOR CLOUD COVER...WITH WEDGE OF CLEARING
OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER...BUT A REASONABLY SOLID OVERCAST
BEHIND THE INCOMING FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...
ISSUED AT 505 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS
INTO SW CANADA AND A DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS...ANCHORED
BY A DEEP MIDLEVEL LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO. A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES ARE
NOTED IN THE TROF. ONE MOVING INTO INDIANA IS GENERATING SHRA/TSRA
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SRN LAKES REGION. A WEAKER WAVE SWEEPING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR HAS SENT A WEAK SFC TROF INTO ERN UPPER MI AND
NRN LWR MI THIS AFTN. DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE MI
HAS ALLOWED SCT -SHRA TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SFC TROF THIS AFTN
ACROSS NRN MI. A COUPLE OF TSRA HAVE EVEN DEVELOPED OVER THE ERN
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.
TONIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES...
USHING IN A PUSH OF COLDER AIR. CONSENSUS OF 12Z MODELS INDICATE
850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND -4C OVER ERN UPPER MI AND TO -2 TO
-3C ACROSS NRN LWR MI. ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION IS NOTED OVER NRN LWR
MI WED AFTN. WITH INCREASING OVERWATER INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
SOME DEEP LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE...EXPECT A
PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED -SHRA TO GET UNDERWAY TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PASSES. BEST HEIGHT FALLS/DEEP LAYER FORCING IS OVER THE N...SO
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS FAR NRN LWR MI
INTO ERN UPPER MI WHERE A FEW AREAS OF LIKELY POPS WILL BE PAINTED.
SINCE WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE ONLY FCST TO DROP AS LOW AS
1500-1600FT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE -SHRA. HOWEVER...TYPICAL
FOR EARLY SEASON LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT...WOULDN`T BE TOO SURPRISED
TO SEE A LITTLE GRAUPEL MIX IN WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS
-SHRA/CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING...ESPECIALLY SINCE
-10C ISOTHERM DIPS BLO A DECENTLY HIGH INVERSION BASE AT ROUGHLY
AROUND 7-8KFT.
DURING WED...SOME LOW-MIDLEVEL DRYING WORKS INTO AT LEAST THE SW
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA...RESULTING IN ANY LINGERING SHRA ENDING
DURING THE DAY. FARTHER N...CYCLONIC FLOW...LINGERING DEEPER
MOISTURE INCLUDING ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MI INTO FAR NRN LWR MI AND
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO ERN UPPER MI WILL KEEP SCT -SHRA GOING. IN
FACT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWINGING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW TO THE N
MAY RESULT IN INCREASING -SHRA COVERAGE OR AT LEAST SOMEWHAT HEAVIER
-SHRA FOR A TIME. DEPENDING ON COVERAGE OF SHRA AND THICKNESS OF
CLOUDS...FCST HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS ERN UPPER MI AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LWR MI MIGHT BE A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC.
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ISSUED AT 505 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...UPPER LOW REMAINS CLOSE BY...BUT
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR RAIN DIMINISHES STEADILY THROUGH THIS TIME
AS DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE TAKES HOLD. HIGHER H85-H7 RH
REMAINS OVER EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...BUT FALLS OFF FARTHER SOUTH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL /900MB-800MB/ MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE THOUGH DUE TO COOL CYCLONIC FLOW /H85 TEMPS DOWN
TO -3C/ TO SOUTH OF SFC-H85 LOWS OVER WESTERN QUEBEC. PLAN TO HAVE A
LOT OF STRATUS AND STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN AND
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THURSDAY...BUT SEEMS CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL BE LOW AS LARGER SCALE FORCING IS MINIMAL. WILL HANG ON TO LOW
CHANCES OVER EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN AS THAT AREA IS CLOSER TO THE
PRIMARY UPR MICHIGAN AND SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE UP TO H7. EVEN WITH
A FAIRLY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER ON SOUNDINGS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO ALSO SEE LGT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AS LAKE/AIR DELTA T/S EXCEED 20C AND WITH
UPSLOPE WNW FLOW. COULD BE CLOSE CALL FOR RAIN/SNOW PTYPE AS TEMPS
FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WITH WBZERO HEIGHTS STAYING ABOVE 1000 FT AGL AND
SINCE THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED...WILL KEEP WITH ONLY RAIN FOR NOW.
PROBABLY THE MAIN STORY THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY WNW
WINDS. WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN UPR
MICHIGAN AND ALONG LK MICHIGAN SHORE OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN OVERALL REGIME.
GFS INDICATES IT BECOMES EVEN DRIER IN THE H85-H7 LAYER AS
SUBSIDENCE AND Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE INCREASES. ECMWF HINTS AT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH ON THE WESTERN PERIFERY OF THE EASTERN
CANADA UPPER LOW BUT IT STILL STAYS PRETTY DRY IN THE H85-H7 LAYER.
LOW-LEVEL WINDS MAINLY STAY WNW BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN...FLOW BECOMES LESS UNIFORM BY
LATER FRIDAY AND MORE SO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENT THAT A LOT OF
CLOUDS WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY
DAYTIME HEATING.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD FINALLY WIN OUT BY
THIS WEEKEND...BUT IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THERE
ARE INDICATIONS ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS ACROSS
INTO SATURDAY. MINIMAL CHANGE IN H85 TEMPS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY RESULTS IN ONLY A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND FOR MAX TEMPS BY
SATURDAY. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT HIGHS STAYING BLO NORMAL WITH MID-UPR
40S OVER EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN AND FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN AND MAYBE REACHING LOWER 50S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
LOWER MICHIGAN. TEMPS COULD BE QUITE COOL SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGE
AXIS OVERHEAD. INTERIOR AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER MAY FALL BLO
FREEZING.
REST OF EXTENDED...AFTER BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT ANOTHER
TROUGH ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES RIDING OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGHING WILL MEET UP WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OR EVEN
MONDAY. BEST FOCUS FOR RAIN WILL BE OUT AHEAD OF H85-H7 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AFTER THIS MOVES THROUGH BY LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT A LULL MOVES ACROSS LATER MONDAY. BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH...STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET WILL COMBINE TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN
SPREADING FM CNTRL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES...INCLUDING MUCH OF LOWER MICHIGAN...ALONG SHARP FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE EXTENDED MODELS AND TRENDS FM THOSE
MODELS INDICATE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID-UPR 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
MAINLY VFR.
COLD FRONT CROSSING NORTHERN MI TONIGHT...RETURNING CLOUDS AND THE
THREAT FOR SHRA TO THE REGION. SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS...MAINLY PLN/TVC...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT THINGS TO STAY LOW-END
VFR. IN ADDITION...LAKE-ENHANCED SHRA COULD ALSO BRIEFLY DIP VSBYS
TO MVFR OVERNIGHT...AGAIN MAINLY AT PLN/TVC. OTHERWISE...SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR GRADUALLY WORKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
CIGS TO SLOWLY RISE AND THE SHRA THREAT TO END.
SOMEWHAT GUSTY W TO WNW WINDS THRU LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
DIMINISHING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 505 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL USHER IN A COOL AIRMASS WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE OVER-WATER INSTABILITY OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. WNW WINDS OVER 25 KTS BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE AT TIMES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. STRONGEST WINDS FROM SLEEPING BEAR POINT
THROUGH THE STRAITS AND EAST TOWARD PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT ESPECIALLY
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH OVERNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD DIMINISH BLO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY THURSDAY
EVENING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS OVER THE UPR GREAT LAKES.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ345-347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ321.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...JLA
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
932 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 505 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP A COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA BY THIS WEEKEND A
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA BRINGING DRIER BUT STILL
COOL WEATHER. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY AS A SFC
TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER
MICHIGAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
LAST OF THE DIURNAL CONVECTION WORKING ITS WAY OFF OF THE NE LOWER
MI COAST. WELL- DEFINED COLD FRONT MOVING OUT ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE MI AND INTO EASTERN UPPER. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
BRIEF SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION CONTRIBUTING TO POST-FRONTAL LAKE
ENHANCED SHRA. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL...THOUGH WAS
PERHAPS A BIT SLOW WITH PRECIP ONSET. SOME ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN
MADE IN THIS REGARD...BUT THE IDEA OF SHRA BECOMING NUMEROUS IN
WNW TO NW FLOW REGIMES IS REASONABLE.
ADJUSTMENTS ALSO MADE FOR CLOUD COVER...WITH WEDGE OF CLEARING
OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER...BUT A REASONABLY SOLID OVERCAST
BEHIND THE INCOMING FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...
ISSUED AT 505 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS
INTO SW CANADA AND A DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS...ANCHORED
BY A DEEP MIDLEVEL LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO. A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES ARE
NOTED IN THE TROF. ONE MOVING INTO INDIANA IS GENERATING SHRA/TSRA
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SRN LAKES REGION. A WEAKER WAVE SWEEPING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR HAS SENT A WEAK SFC TROF INTO ERN UPPER MI AND
NRN LWR MI THIS AFTN. DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE MI
HAS ALLOWED SCT -SHRA TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SFC TROF THIS AFTN
ACROSS NRN MI. A COUPLE OF TSRA HAVE EVEN DEVELOPED OVER THE ERN
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.
TONIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES...
USHING IN A PUSH OF COLDER AIR. CONSENSUS OF 12Z MODELS INDICATE
850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND -4C OVER ERN UPPER MI AND TO -2 TO
-3C ACROSS NRN LWR MI. ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION IS NOTED OVER NRN LWR
MI WED AFTN. WITH INCREASING OVERWATER INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
SOME DEEP LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE...EXPECT A
PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED -SHRA TO GET UNDERWAY TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PASSES. BEST HEIGHT FALLS/DEEP LAYER FORCING IS OVER THE N...SO
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS FAR NRN LWR MI
INTO ERN UPPER MI WHERE A FEW AREAS OF LIKELY POPS WILL BE PAINTED.
SINCE WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE ONLY FCST TO DROP AS LOW AS
1500-1600FT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE -SHRA. HOWEVER...TYPICAL
FOR EARLY SEASON LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT...WOULDN`T BE TOO SURPRISED
TO SEE A LITTLE GRAUPEL MIX IN WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS
-SHRA/CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING...ESPECIALLY SINCE
-10C ISOTHERM DIPS BLO A DECENTLY HIGH INVERSION BASE AT ROUGHLY
AROUND 7-8KFT.
DURING WED...SOME LOW-MIDLEVEL DRYING WORKS INTO AT LEAST THE SW
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA...RESULTING IN ANY LINGERING SHRA ENDING
DURING THE DAY. FARTHER N...CYCLONIC FLOW...LINGERING DEEPER
MOISTURE INCLUDING ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MI INTO FAR NRN LWR MI AND
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO ERN UPPER MI WILL KEEP SCT -SHRA GOING. IN
FACT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWINGING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW TO THE N
MAY RESULT IN INCREASING -SHRA COVERAGE OR AT LEAST SOMEWHAT HEAVIER
-SHRA FOR A TIME. DEPENDING ON COVERAGE OF SHRA AND THICKNESS OF
CLOUDS...FCST HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS ERN UPPER MI AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LWR MI MIGHT BE A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC.
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ISSUED AT 505 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...UPPER LOW REMAINS CLOSE BY...BUT
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR RAIN DIMINISHES STEADILY THROUGH THIS TIME
AS DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE TAKES HOLD. HIGHER H85-H7 RH
REMAINS OVER EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...BUT FALLS OFF FARTHER SOUTH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL /900MB-800MB/ MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE THOUGH DUE TO COOL CYCLONIC FLOW /H85 TEMPS DOWN
TO -3C/ TO SOUTH OF SFC-H85 LOWS OVER WESTERN QUEBEC. PLAN TO HAVE A
LOT OF STRATUS AND STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN AND
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THURSDAY...BUT SEEMS CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL BE LOW AS LARGER SCALE FORCING IS MINIMAL. WILL HANG ON TO LOW
CHANCES OVER EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN AS THAT AREA IS CLOSER TO THE
PRIMARY UPR MICHIGAN AND SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE UP TO H7. EVEN WITH
A FAIRLY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER ON SOUNDINGS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO ALSO SEE LGT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AS LAKE/AIR DELTA T/S EXCEED 20C AND WITH
UPSLOPE WNW FLOW. COULD BE CLOSE CALL FOR RAIN/SNOW PTYPE AS TEMPS
FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WITH WBZERO HEIGHTS STAYING ABOVE 1000 FT AGL AND
SINCE THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED...WILL KEEP WITH ONLY RAIN FOR NOW.
PROBABLY THE MAIN STORY THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY WNW
WINDS. WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN UPR
MICHIGAN AND ALONG LK MICHIGAN SHORE OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN OVERALL REGIME.
GFS INDICATES IT BECOMES EVEN DRIER IN THE H85-H7 LAYER AS
SUBSIDENCE AND Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE INCREASES. ECMWF HINTS AT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH ON THE WESTERN PERIFERY OF THE EASTERN
CANADA UPPER LOW BUT IT STILL STAYS PRETTY DRY IN THE H85-H7 LAYER.
LOW-LEVEL WINDS MAINLY STAY WNW BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN...FLOW BECOMES LESS UNIFORM BY
LATER FRIDAY AND MORE SO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENT THAT A LOT OF
CLOUDS WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY
DAYTIME HEATING.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD FINALLY WIN OUT BY
THIS WEEKEND...BUT IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THERE
ARE INDICATIONS ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS ACROSS
INTO SATURDAY. MINIMAL CHANGE IN H85 TEMPS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY RESULTS IN ONLY A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND FOR MAX TEMPS BY
SATURDAY. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT HIGHS STAYING BLO NORMAL WITH MID-UPR
40S OVER EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN AND FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN AND MAYBE REACHING LOWER 50S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
LOWER MICHIGAN. TEMPS COULD BE QUITE COOL SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGE
AXIS OVERHEAD. INTERIOR AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER MAY FALL BLO
FREEZING.
REST OF EXTENDED...AFTER BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT ANOTHER
TROUGH ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES RIDING OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGHING WILL MEET UP WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OR EVEN
MONDAY. BEST FOCUS FOR RAIN WILL BE OUT AHEAD OF H85-H7 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AFTER THIS MOVES THROUGH BY LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT A LULL MOVES ACROSS LATER MONDAY. BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH...STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET WILL COMBINE TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN
SPREADING FM CNTRL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES...INCLUDING MUCH OF LOWER MICHIGAN...ALONG SHARP FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE EXTENDED MODELS AND TRENDS FM THOSE
MODELS INDICATE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID-UPR 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING ADDITIONAL CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE TAF SITES. VFR/HIGH END
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...WITH GREATEST IMPACTS AT KPLN WHERE LAKE
PROCESSES MAY HELP FURTHER SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...UNDER VFR CU/STCU DECK.
BIGGER STORY WEDNESDAY WILL BE INCREASINGLY GUSTY WEST WINDS...AT
TIMES EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 505 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL USHER IN A COOL AIRMASS WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE OVER-WATER INSTABILITY OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. WNW WINDS OVER 25 KTS BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE AT TIMES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. STRONGEST WINDS FROM SLEEPING BEAR POINT
THROUGH THE STRAITS AND EAST TOWARD PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT ESPECIALLY
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH OVERNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD DIMINISH BLO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY THURSDAY
EVENING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS OVER THE UPR GREAT LAKES.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ345-347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ321.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...JLA
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
711 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 505 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP A COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA BY THIS WEEKEND A
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA BRINGING DRIER BUT STILL
COOL WEATHER. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY AS A SFC
TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER
MICHIGAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...
ISSUED AT 505 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS
INTO SW CANADA AND A DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS...ANCHORED
BY A DEEP MIDLEVEL LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO. A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES ARE
NOTED IN THE TROF. ONE MOVING INTO INDIANA IS GENERATING SHRA/TSRA
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SRN LAKES REGION. A WEAKER WAVE SWEEPING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR HAS SENT A WEAK SFC TROF INTO ERN UPPER MI AND
NRN LWR MI THIS AFTN. DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE MI
HAS ALLOWED SCT -SHRA TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SFC TROF THIS AFTN
ACROSS NRN MI. A COUPLE OF TSRA HAVE EVEN DEVELOPED OVER THE ERN
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.
TONIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES...
USHING IN A PUSH OF COLDER AIR. CONSENSUS OF 12Z MODELS INDICATE
850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND -4C OVER ERN UPPER MI AND TO -2 TO
-3C ACROSS NRN LWR MI. ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION IS NOTED OVER NRN LWR
MI WED AFTN. WITH INCREASING OVERWATER INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
SOME DEEP LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE...EXPECT A
PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED -SHRA TO GET UNDERWAY TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PASSES. BEST HEIGHT FALLS/DEEP LAYER FORCING IS OVER THE N...SO
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS FAR NRN LWR MI
INTO ERN UPPER MI WHERE A FEW AREAS OF LIKELY POPS WILL BE PAINTED.
SINCE WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE ONLY FCST TO DROP AS LOW AS
1500-1600FT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE -SHRA. HOWEVER...TYPICAL
FOR EARLY SEASON LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT...WOULDN`T BE TOO SURPRISED
TO SEE A LITTLE GRAUPEL MIX IN WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS
-SHRA/CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING...ESPECIALLY SINCE
-10C ISOTHERM DIPS BLO A DECENTLY HIGH INVERSION BASE AT ROUGHLY
AROUND 7-8KFT.
DURING WED...SOME LOW-MIDLEVEL DRYING WORKS INTO AT LEAST THE SW
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA...RESULTING IN ANY LINGERING SHRA ENDING
DURING THE DAY. FARTHER N...CYCLONIC FLOW...LINGERING DEEPER
MOISTURE INCLUDING ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MI INTO FAR NRN LWR MI AND
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO ERN UPPER MI WILL KEEP SCT -SHRA GOING. IN
FACT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWINGING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW TO THE N
MAY RESULT IN INCREASING -SHRA COVERAGE OR AT LEAST SOMEWHAT HEAVIER
-SHRA FOR A TIME. DEPENDING ON COVERAGE OF SHRA AND THICKNESS OF
CLOUDS...FCST HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS ERN UPPER MI AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LWR MI MIGHT BE A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC.
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ISSUED AT 505 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...UPPER LOW REMAINS CLOSE BY...BUT
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR RAIN DIMINISHES STEADILY THROUGH THIS TIME
AS DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE TAKES HOLD. HIGHER H85-H7 RH
REMAINS OVER EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...BUT FALLS OFF FARTHER SOUTH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL /900MB-800MB/ MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE THOUGH DUE TO COOL CYCLONIC FLOW /H85 TEMPS DOWN
TO -3C/ TO SOUTH OF SFC-H85 LOWS OVER WESTERN QUEBEC. PLAN TO HAVE A
LOT OF STRATUS AND STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN AND
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THURSDAY...BUT SEEMS CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL BE LOW AS LARGER SCALE FORCING IS MINIMAL. WILL HANG ON TO LOW
CHANCES OVER EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN AS THAT AREA IS CLOSER TO THE
PRIMARY UPR MICHIGAN AND SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE UP TO H7. EVEN WITH
A FAIRLY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER ON SOUNDINGS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO ALSO SEE LGT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AS LAKE/AIR DELTA T/S EXCEED 20C AND WITH
UPSLOPE WNW FLOW. COULD BE CLOSE CALL FOR RAIN/SNOW PTYPE AS TEMPS
FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WITH WBZERO HEIGHTS STAYING ABOVE 1000 FT AGL AND
SINCE THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED...WILL KEEP WITH ONLY RAIN FOR NOW.
PROBABLY THE MAIN STORY THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY WNW
WINDS. WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN UPR
MICHIGAN AND ALONG LK MICHIGAN SHORE OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN OVERALL REGIME.
GFS INDICATES IT BECOMES EVEN DRIER IN THE H85-H7 LAYER AS
SUBSIDENCE AND Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE INCREASES. ECMWF HINTS AT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH ON THE WESTERN PERIFERY OF THE EASTERN
CANADA UPPER LOW BUT IT STILL STAYS PRETTY DRY IN THE H85-H7 LAYER.
LOW-LEVEL WINDS MAINLY STAY WNW BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN...FLOW BECOMES LESS UNIFORM BY
LATER FRIDAY AND MORE SO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENT THAT A LOT OF
CLOUDS WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY
DAYTIME HEATING.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD FINALLY WIN OUT BY
THIS WEEKEND...BUT IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THERE
ARE INDICATIONS ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS ACROSS
INTO SATURDAY. MINIMAL CHANGE IN H85 TEMPS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY RESULTS IN ONLY A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND FOR MAX TEMPS BY
SATURDAY. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT HIGHS STAYING BLO NORMAL WITH MID-UPR
40S OVER EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN AND FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN AND MAYBE REACHING LOWER 50S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
LOWER MICHIGAN. TEMPS COULD BE QUITE COOL SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGE
AXIS OVERHEAD. INTERIOR AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER MAY FALL BLO
FREEZING.
REST OF EXTENDED...AFTER BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT ANOTHER
TROUGH ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES RIDING OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGHING WILL MEET UP WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OR EVEN
MONDAY. BEST FOCUS FOR RAIN WILL BE OUT AHEAD OF H85-H7 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AFTER THIS MOVES THROUGH BY LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT A LULL MOVES ACROSS LATER MONDAY. BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH...STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET WILL COMBINE TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN
SPREADING FM CNTRL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES...INCLUDING MUCH OF LOWER MICHIGAN...ALONG SHARP FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE EXTENDED MODELS AND TRENDS FM THOSE
MODELS INDICATE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID-UPR 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING ADDITIONAL CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE TAF SITES. VFR/HIGH END
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...WITH GREATEST IMPACTS AT KPLN WHERE LAKE
PROCESSES MAY HELP FURTHER SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...UNDER VFR CU/STCU DECK.
BIGGER STORY WEDNESDAY WILL BE INCREASINGLY GUSTY WEST WINDS...AT
TIMES EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 505 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL USHER IN A COOL AIRMASS WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE OVER-WATER INSTABILITY OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. WNW WINDS OVER 25 KTS BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE AT TIMES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. STRONGEST WINDS FROM SLEEPING BEAR POINT
THROUGH THE STRAITS AND EAST TOWARD PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT ESPECIALLY
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH OVERNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD DIMINISH BLO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY THURSDAY
EVENING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS OVER THE UPR GREAT LAKES.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ345-347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ321.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JLA
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
124 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
NW ONTARIO WITH A BROAD TROUGH DOMINATING THE CONUS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. A WEAK SHRTWV WAS SLIDING THROUGH UPPER MI WHILE A MUCH
STRONGER UPSTREAM SHRTWV LOBE WAS LOCATED OVER N CNTRL MANITOBA. AT
THE SFC...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILED OVER UPPER MI AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH INTO NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NE MN. ALTHOUGH MID CLOUDS WERE
SPREADING ACROSS W UPPER MI AND 850 MB TEMPS REMAINED NEAR
-3C...RELATIVELY DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD DECK HAS LIMITED ANY LAKE
EFFECT PCPN.
TODAY...EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND SFC HEATING
FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 50 AS WAA AND BREEZY SW WINDS
DEVELOP AHEAD THE SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH/FRONT ADVANCE TOWARD
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PCPN...WITH
MOST OF THE RAIN HOLDING OFF OVER THE WEST AFTER 00Z/TUE.
TONIGHT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE INFLOW AND ONLY MODERATE 700-300
QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...POPS WERE LOWERED A BIT
INTO THE 40-60 RANGE GREATEST OVER THE NW THIS EVENING AND OVER THE
ERN CWA LATE. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH SO THAT NO
SNOW IS EXPECTED AS THE COLDER AIR ONLY MOVES IN AFTER THE FORCING
AND DEEP MOISTURE DEPART TO THE EAST. ANY PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.1 INCH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
WET/UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LINGER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE SECOND HALF
AS THE PESKY LOW OVER ONTARIO FINALLY EXITS INTO CENTRAL AND N
QUEBEC.
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOR TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W THIRD OF THE
CWA AS THE NEARLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO GETS AS
CLOSE AS IT/S GOING TO TO UPPER MI...WITH THE PRIMARY TROUGH
EXTENDING ALL THE WAY DOWN THROUGH IL AT 18Z TUESDAY. 850MB TEMPS
ARE MODEST AROUND 0 TO 4C...AND WITH SFC TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S ON W-WSW WINDS...SNOW IS BASICALLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION AT THIS POINT.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW AS COOLER AIR SLIDES IN
BEHIND THE EXITING SFC-500MB LOW. EXPECT THE LOW TO SHIFT BACK UP TO
N ONTARIO BY 00Z THURSDAY. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO THE -3 TO -8C
RANGE ON UPSLOPE W-WNW LOW LEVEL WINDS. AN INCREASE PRESSURE
GRADIENT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN WINDS
HOVERING AROUND 20KTS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. GUSTS NEAR
30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DRIER AIR WILL INVADE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS COOL
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA...AND THE MAIN
TROUGH SHIFTS E. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LOOK FOR SOME RETURN FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND STATES. THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A SFC LOW/TROUGH MOVING
FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT 18Z SUNDAY. SHOULD
SEE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AT
THE EARLIEST. A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION MAY BE IN THE CARDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR LINGERING THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME/HEATING MIXING. LATER TOWARD SUNSET...EXPECT
CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND DEEP LOW
PRES IN NW ONTARIO. SOME -SHRA WILL IMPACT MAINLY CMX. IN THE
ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW OR HEAVIER
RAIN...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AT CMX...WHICH
WILL BE BE CLOSER TO THE STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
A SURFACE LOW ROTATING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT AND GENERALLY
SW WINDS OF 15-30KTS TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY (UP TO 30KTS)...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND
DECREASES WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
123 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
NW ONTARIO WITH A BROAD TROUGH DOMINATING THE CONUS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. A WEAK SHRTWV WAS SLIDING THROUGH UPPER MI WHILE A MUCH
STRONGER UPSTREAM SHRTWV LOBE WAS LOCATED OVER N CNTRL MANITOBA. AT
THE SFC...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILED OVER UPPER MI AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH INTO NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NE MN. ALTHOUGH MID CLOUDS WERE
SPREADING ACROSS W UPPER MI AND 850 MB TEMPS REMAINED NEAR
-3C...RELATIVELY DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD DECK HAS LIMITED ANY LAKE
EFFECT PCPN.
TODAY...EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND SFC HEATING
FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 50 AS WAA AND BREEZY SW WINDS
DEVELOP AHEAD THE SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH/FRONT ADVANCE TOWARD
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PCPN...WITH
MOST OF THE RAIN HOLDING OFF OVER THE WEST AFTER 00Z/TUE.
TONIGHT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE INFLOW AND ONLY MODERATE 700-300
QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...POPS WERE LOWERED A BIT
INTO THE 40-60 RANGE GREATEST OVER THE NW THIS EVENING AND OVER THE
ERN CWA LATE. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH SO THAT NO
SNOW IS EXPECTED AS THE COLDER AIR ONLY MOVES IN AFTER THE FORCING
AND DEEP MOISTURE DEPART TO THE EAST. ANY PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.1 INCH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
WET/UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LINGER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE SECOND HALF
AS THE PESKY LOW OVER ONTARIO FINALLY EXITS INTO CENTRAL AND N
QUEBEC.
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOR TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W THIRD OF THE
CWA AS THE NEARLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO GETS AS
CLOSE AS IT/S GOING TO TO UPPER MI...WITH THE PRIMARY TROUGH
EXTENDING ALL THE WAY DOWN THROUGH IL AT 18Z TUESDAY. 850MB TEMPS
ARE MODEST AROUND 0 TO 4C...AND WITH SFC TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S ON W-WSW WINDS...SNOW IS BASICALLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION AT THIS POINT.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW AS COOLER AIR SLIDES IN
BEHIND THE EXITING SFC-500MB LOW. EXPECT THE LOW TO SHIFT BACK UP TO
N ONTARIO BY 00Z THURSDAY. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO THE -3 TO -8C
RANGE ON UPSLOPE W-WNW LOW LEVEL WINDS. AN INCREASE PRESSURE
GRADIENT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN WINDS
HOVERING AROUND 20KTS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. GUSTS NEAR
30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DRIER AIR WILL INVADE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS COOL
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA...AND THE MAIN
TROUGH SHIFTS E. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LOOK FOR SOME RETURN FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND STATES. THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A SFC LOW/TROUGH MOVING
FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT 18Z SUNDAY. SHOULD
SEE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AT
THE EARLIEST. A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION MAY BE IN THE CARDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 732 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR LINGERING THROUGH TODAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME/HEATING MIXING. LATER TOWARD
SUNSET...EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND DEEP LOW PRES IN NW ONTARIO. SOME -SHRA WILL IMPACT MAINLY
CMX. IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW OR
HEAVIER RAIN...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AT
CMX...WHICH WILL BE BE CLOSER TO THE STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
A SURFACE LOW ROTATING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT AND GENERALLY
SW WINDS OF 15-30KTS TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY (UP TO 30KTS)...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND
DECREASES WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
732 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
NW ONTARIO WITH A BROAD TROUGH DOMINATING THE CONUS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. A WEAK SHRTWV WAS SLIDING THROUGH UPPER MI WHILE A MUCH
STRONGER UPSTREAM SHRTWV LOBE WAS LOCATED OVER N CNTRL MANITOBA. AT
THE SFC...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILED OVER UPPER MI AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH INTO NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NE MN. ALTHOUGH MID CLOUDS WERE
SPREADING ACROSS W UPPER MI AND 850 MB TEMPS REMAINED NEAR
-3C...RELATIVELY DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD DECK HAS LIMITED ANY LAKE
EFFECT PCPN.
TODAY...EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND SFC HEATING
FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 50 AS WAA AND BREEZY SW WINDS
DEVELOP AHEAD THE SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH/FRONT ADVANCE TOWARD
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PCPN...WITH
MOST OF THE RAIN HOLDING OFF OVER THE WEST AFTER 00Z/TUE.
TONIGHT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE INFLOW AND ONLY MODERATE 700-300
QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...POPS WERE LOWERED A BIT
INTO THE 40-60 RANGE GREATEST OVER THE NW THIS EVENING AND OVER THE
ERN CWA LATE. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH SO THAT NO
SNOW IS EXPECTED AS THE COLDER AIR ONLY MOVES IN AFTER THE FORCING
AND DEEP MOISTURE DEPART TO THE EAST. ANY PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.1 INCH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
WET/UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LINGER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE SECOND HALF
AS THE PESKY LOW OVER ONTARIO FINALLY EXITS INTO CENTRAL AND N
QUEBEC.
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOR TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W THIRD OF THE
CWA AS THE NEARLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO GETS AS
CLOSE AS IT/S GOING TO TO UPPER MI...WITH THE PRIMARY TROUGH
EXTENDING ALL THE WAY DOWN THROUGH IL AT 18Z TUESDAY. 850MB TEMPS
ARE MODEST AROUND 0 TO 4C...AND WITH SFC TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S ON W-WSW WINDS...SNOW IS BASICALLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION AT THIS POINT.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW AS COOLER AIR SLIDES IN
BEHIND THE EXITING SFC-500MB LOW. EXPECT THE LOW TO SHIFT BACK UP TO
N ONTARIO BY 00Z THURSDAY. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO THE -3 TO -8C
RANGE ON UPSLOPE W-WNW LOW LEVEL WINDS. AN INCREASE PRESSURE
GRADIENT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN WINDS
HOVERING AROUND 20KTS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. GUSTS NEAR
30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DRIER AIR WILL INVADE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS COOL
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA...AND THE MAIN
TROUGH SHIFTS E. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LOOK FOR SOME RETURN FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND STATES. THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A SFC LOW/TROUGH MOVING
FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT 18Z SUNDAY. SHOULD
SEE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AT
THE EARLIEST. A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION MAY BE IN THE CARDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 732 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR LINGERING THROUGH TODAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME/HEATING MIXING. LATER TOWARD
SUNSET...EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND DEEP LOW PRES IN NW ONTARIO. SOME -SHRA WILL IMPACT MAINLY
CMX. IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW OR
HEAVIER RAIN...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AT
CMX...WHICH WILL BE BE CLOSER TO THE STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
A SURFACE LOW ROTATING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT AND GENERALLY
SW WINDS OF 15-30KTS TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY (UP TO 30KTS)...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND
DECREASES WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
509 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
NW ONTARIO WITH A BROAD TROUGH DOMINATING THE CONUS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. A WEAK SHRTWV WAS SLIDING THROUGH UPPER MI WHILE A MUCH
STRONGER UPSTREAM SHRTWV LOBE WAS LOCATED OVER N CNTRL MANITOBA. AT
THE SFC...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILED OVER UPPER MI AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH INTO NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NE MN. ALTHOUGH MID CLOUDS WERE
SPREADING ACROSS W UPPER MI AND 850 MB TEMPS REMAINED NEAR
-3C...RELATIVELY DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD DECK HAS LIMITED ANY LAKE
EFFECT PCPN.
TODAY...EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND SFC HEATING
FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 50 AS WAA AND BREEZY SW WINDS
DEVELOP AHEAD THE SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH/FRONT ADVANCE TOWARD
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PCPN...WITH
MOST OF THE RAIN HOLDING OFF OVER THE WEST AFTER 00Z/TUE.
TONIGHT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE INFLOW AND ONLY MODERATE 700-300
QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...POPS WERE LOWERED A BIT
INTO THE 40-60 RANGE GREATEST OVER THE NW THIS EVENING AND OVER THE
ERN CWA LATE. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH SO THAT NO
SNOW IS EXPECTED AS THE COLDER AIR ONLY MOVES IN AFTER THE FORCING
AND DEEP MOISTURE DEPART TO THE EAST. ANY PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.1 INCH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
WET/UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LINGER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE SECOND HALF
AS THE PESKY LOW OVER ONTARIO FINALLY EXITS INTO CENTRAL AND N
QUEBEC.
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOR TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W THIRD OF THE
CWA AS THE NEARLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO GETS AS
CLOSE AS IT/S GOING TO TO UPPER MI...WITH THE PRIMARY TROUGH
EXTENDING ALL THE WAY DOWN THROUGH IL AT 18Z TUESDAY. 850MB TEMPS
ARE MODEST AROUND 0 TO 4C...AND WITH SFC TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S ON W-WSW WINDS...SNOW IS BASICALLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION AT THIS POINT.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW AS COOLER AIR SLIDES IN
BEHIND THE EXITING SFC-500MB LOW. EXPECT THE LOW TO SHIFT BACK UP TO
N ONTARIO BY 00Z THURSDAY. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO THE -3 TO -8C
RANGE ON UPSLOPE W-WNW LOW LEVEL WINDS. AN INCREASE PRESSURE
GRADIENT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN WINDS
HOVERING AROUND 20KTS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. GUSTS NEAR
30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DRIER AIR WILL INVADE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS COOL
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA...AND THE MAIN
TROUGH SHIFTS E. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LOOK FOR SOME RETURN FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND STATES. THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A SFC LOW/TROUGH MOVING
FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT 18Z SUNDAY. SHOULD
SEE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AT
THE EARLIEST. A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION MAY BE IN THE CARDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
ALTHOUGH SOME BKN SC MAY IMPACT MAINLY CMX EARLY THIS MRNG AS A
DISTURBANCE SWINGS THRU THE UPR LKS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL 3
TAF SITES WITH RELATIVELY DRY LLVLS. THIS DRY AIR WL LINGER THRU
TODAY...RESULTING IN PERSISTENT VFR WX. GUSTY WINDS WL DVLP AT THE 3
SITES BY MON AFTN WITH DAYTIME/HEATING MIXING. LATER TOWARD
SUNSET...EXPECT CLDS TO BE ON THE INCRS W-E IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ROTATING THRU THE UPR LKS ARND DEEP LO PRES IN NW
ONTARIO. SOME -SHRA WL IMPACT MAINLY CMX. IN THE ABSENCE OF SGNFT
LLVL MSTR INFLOW...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE AT THE 3
AIRPORTS. THE BEST CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WL BE LATER IN THE EVNG
AT CMX...WHICH WL BE CLOSER TO THE SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING
ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
A SURFACE LOW ROTATING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT AND GENERALLY
SW WINDS OF 15-30KTS TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY (UP TO 30KTS)...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND
DECREASES WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
304 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
LITTLE CHG IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS THE MAIN SHRTWV ALONG THE
MN/CANADIAN BORDER MOVES OFF TO THE NE OF MPX CWA. HOWEVER...A FEW
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING ONCE THIS SHRTWV ROTATES THRU THE GREAT LAKES.
IN ADDITION...ANOTHER SHRTWV WAS EVIDENT ACROSS ND EARLY THIS AFTN.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A SHORT PERIOD WHERE BOTH SHRTWV/S
COMBINED AND CREATE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL/EC MN AND
INTO WC WI BETWEEN 22-04Z THIS AFTN/EVENING. THIS IS NOTED ON THE
LATEST 15Z HRRR DERIVED REFLECTIVITY FORECAST. CURRENTLY THE
FORECAST HAS ONLY SPRINKLES IN CENTRAL/EC MN WITH CHC POPS IN WC
WI. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO PRECIPITATION AMTS WILL BE MINOR.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT QUIET...BUT TREND TOWARD A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THAT MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN COMES WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL VARIABILITY.
PATTERN EVOLUTION: CURRENT CLOSED LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO FILL IN
AND SHIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WRN RIDGE FLATTENING OUT AS
IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES
INTO CENTRAL NOAM ON SATURDAY...A POWERFUL PAC JET WILL START COMING
ONSHORE IS WASH/BC...WITH THE FIRST VESTIGES OF THIS JET ENERGY
WORKING INTO NRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW THIS WAVE WILL EVOLVE BETWEEN THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF. THE GFS SHOWS A WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEM THAT QUICKLY EVOLVES INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW NEXT WEEK...WHILE
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF...THOUGH WITH
THE 06.12 RUN IT SHIFTED SAID LOW FROM BEING OVER MN/ONT TO NOW
BEING DOWN OVER ARKANSAS.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDES
EAST...WE WILL SEE A COOL AND DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE DOWN FROM
CANADA WITH IT. THIS WILL KEEP OUR HIGHS RUNNING A GOOD 5-10 DEGS
BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE
OF CLOUD COVER...BUT IF WE SEE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...THEN WE SHOULD
HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING LOWS THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY MORNINGS DOWN IN
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...WE WILL ALSO BE
GETTING INTO THE H7-H6 BAROCLINIC ZONE CURRENTLY OUT OVER THE
DAKOTAS...WHICH IS WHAT WILL BE OUR SOURCE FOR VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF
CLOUD COVER WED/THU. THE 12Z MODELS HAVE ALSO CONTINUED TO TREND
DRIER THIS PERIOD...AS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR LOOKS TO SERIOUSLY IMPEDE
ANY PRECIP TRYING TO REACH THE SFC. STILL HAVE SOME REMNANT 20 POPS
LEFT WED NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN WHERE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF FALLING...BUT EVEN HERE...IT TRENDED QUITE A BIT
DRIER FROM WHAT ITS 06.00 MODEL RUN HAD.
FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE DIFFERENCES STEM FROM THE STRENGTH
OF THE PAC JET COMING IN BEHIND SATURDAYS FIRST SURGE. THE GFS KEEPS
A MUCH STRONGER JET GOING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES SUNDAY INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH KEEPS ITS ASSOCIATED LEAD WAVE AN
OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE ONE. A BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE JET ON THE ECMWF
ON SUNDAY ALLOWS THE INITIAL WAVE TO DIG FURTHER...ALLOWING IT TO
CLOSE OFF. THIS CLOSING OFF IS NOTHING NEW IN THE ECMWF...HOWEVER
THE TIMING/LOCATION OF WHERE IT CLOSES OFF HAS CHANGED CONSIDERABLY.
IN THE LAST 6 RUNS IT HAS TAKEN IT FROM CLOSING OFF MONDAY OVER SRN
MANITOBA /4.00 & 4.12 RUNS/...THEN MN/WRN ONTARIO /5.00...5.12 &
6.00 RUNS/...TO NOW CLOSING OFF ON TUESDAY DOWN OVER ARKANSAS. GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF VARIABILITY...JUST STUCK WITH THE BLENDED
FORECAST...WITH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND HIGHS GETTING BACK
INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. SAYING THERE WILL BE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE COMING DAYS IS AN
UNDERSTATEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS WITH CIGS AOA 4K THRU THE PERIOD. A
FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN
ACROSS CENTRAL/EC MN AND PARTS OF WC WI. BUT DUE TO VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE...TRACE AMTS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM
THE WSW/W/WNW THRU THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS DURING THE AFTN
TODAY...AND AGAIN TUESDAY LATE MORNING.
KMSP...
VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA LATE
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. CIGS WILL REMAIN AOA 4K. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY FROM THE WSW/W TODAY...MORE SW TONIGHT AND SHIFTING TO
THE WNW BY TUESDAY MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
THU...VFR. ISOLD -SHRA EARLY. WINDS N 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS N 5 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
121 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
LITTLE CHG IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS THE MAIN SHRTWV ALONG THE
MN/CANADIAN BORDER MOVES OFF TO THE NE OF MPX CWA. HOWEVER...A FEW
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING ONCE THIS SHRTWV ROTATES THRU THE GREAT LAKES.
IN ADDITION...ANOTHER SHRTWV WAS EVIDENT ACROSS ND EARLY THIS AFTN.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A SHORT PERIOD WHERE BOTH SHRTWV/S
COMBINED AND CREATE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL/EC MN AND
INTO WC WI BETWEEN 22-04Z THIS AFTN/EVENING. THIS IS NOTED ON THE
LATEST 15Z HRRR DERIVED REFLECTIVITY FORECAST. CURRENTLY THE
FORECAST HAS ONLY SPRINKLES IN CENTRAL/EC MN WITH CHC POPS IN WC
WI. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO PRECIPITATION AMTS WILL BE MINOR.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A POST-MATURE VERTICALLY STACKED
CYCLONE OVER NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN THE HANDLING OF
THIS LOW. ITS PRESENCE IN ONTARIO WILL KEEP THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS GOING ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO 20
MPH EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MIGRATE
SLOWLY EAST...AND FINALLY BE EAST OF ONTARIO BY THURSDAY. MOST OF
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE CONFINED NORTH OF
US...SO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY...WHILE FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL BE DEALING WITH CONTINUED CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA DUE
TO THIS WAVE MOVING THROUGH. FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE IS NOT
GREAT...AND VERY DRY AIR WILL OCCUPY THE REGION AHEAD OF
IT...MEANING ANY PRECIPITATION IT DOES PRODUCE WILL BE LIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED ONTARIO LOW WILL BE
GAINING STEAM TO THE NORTHEAST AND NO LONGER BLOCKING THE FLOW. AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND MAINTAIN CONTROL OF OUR LOCAL WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS REMNANTS FROM HURRICANE SIMON SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL OF US AND PORTIONS OF THE FA MAY SEE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS UNDER THE SURFACE HIGH.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
ACTIVE FOR US DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SPAWN A STRONG SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA. DECENT
AGREEMENT IS SEEN BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH
THE MAIN BEING TIMING OF ITS MOVEMENT THROUGH OR JUST TO THE NORTH
OF MINNESOTA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW IN THE
COMING DAYS...THE 00Z EC DID DROP IT SLIGHTLY SOUTH FROM THE
PREVIOUS RUN. IF THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS NORTH OF THE FA...EXPECT
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT...WITH A TEMPORARY WARM AIR SURGE POSSIBLE...BEFORE
PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. BEING
SIX DAYS OUT HOWEVER...MUCH WILL NEED TO BE SORTED OUT WITH THE
STRENGTH...TIMING...AND TRACK OF THIS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS WITH CIGS AOA 4K THRU THE PERIOD. A
FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN
ACROSS CENTRAL/EC MN AND PARTS OF WC WI. BUT DUE TO VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE...TRACE AMTS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM
THE WSW/W/WNW THRU THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS DURING THE AFTN
TODAY...AND AGAIN TUESDAY LATE MORNING.
KMSP...
VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA LATE
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. CIGS WILL REMAIN AOA 4K. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY FROM THE WSW/W TODAY...MORE SW TONIGHT AND SHIFTING TO
THE WNW BY TUESDAY MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
THU...VFR. ISOLD -SHRA EARLY. WINDS N 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS N 5 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
325 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2014
...Unsettled and Wet Weather for the End of This Week...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 258 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
An upper level disturbance is currently over the Missouri Ozarks
and moving East. Most of the showers have come to an end for our
local area with the majority of the active weather just to our
south. Today will remain mostly dry. Another disturbance will move
through the upper level flow tonight and develop scattered showers
and perhaps some isolated thunder mainly over the eastern half of the
Missouri Ozarks late tonight and by early tomorrow morning.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
After some morning showers on Tuesday...the rest of the day looks
pretty good with warmer temperatures and afternoon sunshine.
Heights will rise and the upper level pattern will begin to
flatten out somewhat overhead. Above average temperatures in the
lower 80s can be expected by the middle of the week
Starting Wednesday night and through the end of the week...the
weather pattern becomes much more unsettled and wet for the
Missouri Ozarks. A front drops down on Thursday and is a slow
mover at the same time several upper level waves move west to east
in the flow. Deep moisture increases and some tropical moisture
leftover from the tropical system currently in the Pacific moves
over the region.
PW values may be close to 2 inches which is actually kinda high for
this time of year by the end of the week. Multiple rounds of
convection is expected to develop starting late Wednesday through
the end of the week. Severe weather is not expected at this time
but heavy rainfall potential will be something to watch for.
Several inches of rainfall look likely. Blended with the ECMWF
more than the GFS for next weekend with showers and thunderstorms
lingering through the weekend. The front looks like it will stall
out just to our south with cooler temperatures in the 60s on the
back side of the front for next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014
Scattered showers/isolated thunder continue to progress quickly
southeast from central MO into Oklahoma. HRRR has had a pretty
good handle on this tonight and will continue to follow pretty
close for guidance. Deeper convection across central OK where much
better instability exists and not expecting that type of activity
here in the Ozarks tonight. For the TAF sites, like what we
forecast in the 00z TAFS with VCSH wording at the TAF sites
continuing until around 10-11z time frame, with roughly 10kft bases.
So, expecting VFR conditions to continue through the period.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1138 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014
A long wave trough over eastern North America will remain in place
early in the week. A couple of disturbances will move southeast
through the region and with a nw-se oriented baroclinic zone in
place, will see some increased isentropic ascent as times with
chances for some chances for showers. The best chances look to be
over the northeast portion of the cwfa.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014
We will see a gradual upper level pattern change as the high
latitude upper low north of the Great Lakes shifts off to the east
and a split, more progressive, upper flow pattern develops over
the central CONUS. Increased moisture will spread north and
northeast into the area with a sharpening west-east warm front
lifting into the region Wed-Thu. An almost "backdoorish" front drops
south through the region Thu night into Fri as Canadian high
pressure pushes south into the northern Plains and upper Midwest.
We have fairly high rain chances in the forecast Wed night through
Fri but chances will continue into the weekend as the front tries
to lift back to the north as another shortwave moves into the
central and southern Plains.
Overall weather related impacts: We will need to watch the potential
for mounting rainfall totals and convection/tstm chances later in
the week. Heavier rain chances look to be Thu-Fri with the frontal
boundary pushing back to the south.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014
Scattered showers/isolated thunder continue to progress quickly
southeast from central MO into Oklahoma. HRRR has had a pretty
good handle on this tonight and will continue to follow pretty
close for guidance. Deeper convection across central OK where much
better instability exists and not expecting that type of activity
here in the Ozarks tonight. For the TAF sites, like what we
forecast in the 00z TAFS with VCSH wording at the TAF sites
continuing until around 10-11z time frame, with roughly 10kft bases.
So, expecting VFR conditions to continue through the period.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
836 PM MDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE LOW POPS TONIGHT AND LOWERED CLOUD
COVER SOME. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER EASTERN MONTANA
THIS EVENING HELPING TO DISSIPATE ANY LINGERING CONVECTION FROM
THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR IS CLEAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORTING
A DISTINCT LACK OF CLOUD COVER IN MOST AREAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A SOMEWHAT MOIST BUT SHALLOW LAYER AROUND 10KFT BUT DRY AIR
ABOVE AND BELOW THIS LEVEL...ALONG WITH A LACK OF MUCH FORCING FOR
UPWARD MOTION THAT WOULD SUSTAIN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THAT BEING
SAID...ALREADY SEEING SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER SOUTHEAST
MONTANA WHICH WILL PULL FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OVERNIGHT. NW-SE
ORIENTED JET WILL BRING A BIT MORE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THIS BOUNDARY BY MORNING WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES
OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA TOMORROW MORNING...BUT JUST NOT SEEING
ENOUGH FORCING OR MOISTURE TO MENTION SHOWERS AT THIS POINT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT MOST OF THE NIGHT SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST
AS SURFACE TROFING DIGS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. REST OF THE FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. CHAMBERS
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...
MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT NEAR A MID LEVEL
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BE LOCATED FROM NEAR HYSHAM TO EKALAKA
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. WEAK JET DIVERGENCE AND Q VECTOR
FORCING WILL BE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES WHICH WILL GENERATE A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HRRR AND
SSEO WRF-ARW ALSO INDICATE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE EAST OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE
DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BUT A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE GFS AND EC ARE PROGGING STRONGER Q VECTOR FORCING WITH THIS
TROUGH AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING FALLING HEIGHTS
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WHICH IS
NEAR SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. RICHMOND
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
SO EXACT TIMING OF SYSTEMS REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT
IN TIME. JET STREAM THAT WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS WEEK WILL SHIFT SOUTH LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY RESULTING IN
A FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
MOVE SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE FLOW WITH THE STRONGEST LOOKING TO BE
DURING THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME
TIME...A GENERALLY STRONG WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL BE
ESTABLISHED PLAYING A DOWNSLOPE EFFECT HELPING TO INHIBIT SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MODELS THEN DIFFER QUITE A BIT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
THE ECMWF KEEPING TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE GFS HAS
MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW. AS A RESULT...DID NOT MAKE ANY BIG CHANGES
TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. OVERALL...THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
WIND. HOOLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. NO AVIATION
HAZARDS ANTICIPATED. CHAMBERS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047/074 046/064 044/065 047/068 046/063 044/061 044/066
10/B 00/B 21/U 01/B 12/W 21/N 11/B
LVM 044/072 040/065 039/067 043/065 039/059 038/059 039/063
10/U 11/B 11/U 01/B 22/W 21/N 11/E
HDN 043/075 044/066 042/066 045/070 043/065 042/062 041/068
11/B 00/B 21/U 01/B 22/W 21/N 11/B
MLS 042/069 041/064 041/064 046/070 044/065 042/061 041/066
11/B 11/B 21/B 11/B 11/B 21/N 11/B
4BQ 041/073 043/065 042/063 045/071 043/063 042/059 039/066
11/B 01/B 21/B 11/B 22/W 21/N 11/B
BHK 037/064 036/059 037/058 042/068 040/062 040/055 036/062
12/W 10/B 11/B 11/B 21/B 21/N 11/B
SHR 043/074 043/067 042/065 042/071 042/061 038/058 037/066
11/U 00/B 21/U 01/U 23/W 21/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
249 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday...Northwest flow aloft will continue as
the upper ridge remains over the west coast. Weak short wave
energy will move within the flow aloft tonight and may generate
some light showers, mainly in a narrow band from near Cut Bank to
east of Great Falls to just north of Lewistown. This lines up well
with RUC analysis but HRRR model data has the precipitation a bit
further to the west. Slightly cooler temperatures are in store for
the area Tuesday with a few isolated afternoon showers. The
pressure gradient will continue to favor breezy conditions Tuesday
afternoon. Additional short wave energy moves across the area
Wednesday with isolated showers again a possibility, mainly near
the international boundary and along the Rocky Mountain Front.
Temperatures will remain above seasonal averages.
Wednesday Night through Monday...Medium range models remain in
good agreement from midweek through Saturday but solutions
continue to diverge for the Sunday/Monday time frame. Period
starts off with northwest flow aloft over the Northern Rocky
Mountain region with temperatures that are near seasonal averages.
Moisture in the northwest flow will bring isolated rain and snow
showers to the western mountains through Friday afternoon. By
Friday evening, a strong upper level jet will push into western
Canada and the Pacific Northwest. However, beyond Saturday, the
strong flow aloft causes model solutions to diverge as short wave
strength and timing become more problematic. Based upon the
general pattern present in the medium range models am expecting
that increased Pacific moisture and upper level dynamics will
bring an growing chance for precipitation to the western mountains
with isolated to scattered showers moving out over the plains.
Have continued to trend PoPs upward for Saturday through Monday
with temperatures expected to cool back below seasonal averages.
Have also trended toward increased winds along the Rocky Mountain
Front during this period as well and am expecting that that one or
two high wind events along the east slopes of the Rockies are
possible between Friday and Monday. mpj
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1740Z.
Breezy westerly winds will continue over the region through the
afternoon hours...with generally mid/high level cloudiness
prevailing. Expect VFR conditions to prevail over much of the region
through the period. There is a small chance for an isolated shower
in the Lewistown area after 06z Tuesday...with the showers ending by
15z Tue. Brusda
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 47 68 47 70 / 10 10 10 10
CTB 44 67 43 70 / 20 20 10 10
HLN 48 75 46 72 / 10 10 10 10
BZN 42 73 40 70 / 0 10 10 10
WEY 32 64 31 62 / 0 0 10 0
DLN 44 74 41 70 / 0 0 10 0
HVR 42 64 40 67 / 10 20 10 20
LWT 44 66 43 69 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1259 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. DECIDED TO UPDATE TO ADD THOSE IN.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES OTHER THAN A SMALL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD ARE PCPN CHANCES
TONIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. OUR AREA IS STILL IN
STRONG NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW...WITH A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A
TROUGH TO THE EAST.
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS DID OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TODAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
TODAY...BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS SUNDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS OF 67-70
IN WESTERN IOWA AND MAINLY LOWER 70S IN EASTERN NEBRASKA.
YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRACK DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL GENERATE MAINLY MID LEVEL LIFT. INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY WEAK
THOUGH AND NOT AS DEEP AS IT WAS SUNDAY. KEPT POPS IN THE ISOLATED
CATEGORY AND ENDED THESE BY AROUND 09Z. LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S.
THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY. TUESDAY IS
PROBABLY GOING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH LOWER AND MID
70S IN EASTERN NEBRASKA...UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IN WESTERN IOWA.
850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR WEDNESDAY...BUT MIXING DOES NOT
LOOK AS GOOD. SO WE EXPECT HIGHS A A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
THOUGHT ABOUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT STARTING
OUT THIS PERIOD...THEN SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES
BY THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST PCPN THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED
TO BE DOWN ACROSS MISSOURI AND KANSAS...THE SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA COULD SEE RAIN TOTALS UP TO HALF AN INCH FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS SEEMED TOO WET
THOUGH AND WENT CLOSER TO VALUES SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF.
DID NOT MENTION ANY PCPN FOR FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES
RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND OCNL CIGS ABOVE FL050 SHOULD PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN DUE TO HEATING. A DISTURBANCE DROPPING
SE ACROSS MO VALLEY THIS EVENING SHOULD BRING AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD
OF CIGS TO TAF SITES THIS EVENING...GENERALLY MID LEVEL BASED.
A FEW SHOWERS COULD ACCOMPANY THIS DISTURBANCE...BUT NO MENTION
WAS MADE WITH 18Z ISSUANCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE/TIMING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...CHERMOK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
630 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. DECIDED TO UPDATE TO ADD THOSE IN.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES OTHER THAN A SMALL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD ARE PCPN CHANCES
TONIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. OUR AREA IS STILL IN
STRONG NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW...WITH A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A
TROUGH TO THE EAST.
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS DID OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TODAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
TODAY...BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS SUNDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS OF 67-70
IN WESTERN IOWA AND MAINLY LOWER 70S IN EASTERN NEBRASKA.
YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRACK DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL GENERATE MAINLY MID LEVEL LIFT. INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY WEAK
THOUGH AND NOT AS DEEP AS IT WAS SUNDAY. KEPT POPS IN THE ISOLATED
CATEGORY AND ENDED THESE BY AROUND 09Z. LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S.
THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY. TUESDAY IS
PROBABLY GOING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH LOWER AND MID
70S IN EASTERN NEBRASKA...UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IN WESTERN IOWA.
850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR WEDNESDAY...BUT MIXING DOES NOT
LOOK AS GOOD. SO WE EXPECT HIGHS A A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
THOUGHT ABOUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT STARTING
OUT THIS PERIOD...THEN SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES
BY THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST PCPN THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED
TO BE DOWN ACROSS MISSOURI AND KANSAS...THE SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA COULD SEE RAIN TOTALS UP TO HALF AN INCH FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS SEEMED TOO WET
THOUGH AND WENT CLOSER TO VALUES SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF.
DID NOT MENTION ANY PCPN FOR FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES
RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
VFR COND EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1233 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN INTO PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHILE WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE.
ONLY CHANGE FOR MID-DAY UPDATE IS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER
THROUGHOUT THE AREA BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 832 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
A FEW LIGHT ECHOS STARTING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA INTO EASTERN MONTANA WHILE BAND OF CIRRUS WITH STRONG JET
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA. LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH
THEY MAY PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS
HAS BEEN ADDRESSED BY ADDING LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER UP WITH
CURRENT TREND. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
11Z RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN H300 N-S JET AROUND 135 KTS LYING ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ONGOING 12Z RAOB ALREADY CLOSE TO 150 NM
SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK. BAND OF JET STREAM CIRRUS ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IS PARALLELING THIS JET AND MOVING SOUTHEAST. SURFACE
WINDS AT KBIS WITHIN THE PAST HOUR GUSTING TO 20 KTS BRIEFLY. SO
EXPECT ANOTHER BREEZY DAY. ADJUSTED CLOUDS. OTHERWISE CURRENT FCST
LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING.
CURRENTLY...VERY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A 140KT JET
STREAM MOVING TOWARDS/OVER THE REGION...AND AS WE REMAIN IN
BETWEEN A DEEP UPPER LOW SOUTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY AND A BROAD RIDGE
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. SUBTLE EMBEDDED WAVES CONTINUE TO EITHER
RIDE OVER THE RIDGE OR SPIRAL AROUND THE LOW THEN PROCEED
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...RIGHT
NOW MAINLY RESULTING IN SCT-BKN AREAS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
A MORE DEFINED MID LEVEL IMPULSE...NOW CROSSING THE ALBERTA
ROCKIES...WILL APPROACH AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN EMBEDDED UPPER
JET STREAK ACROSS THE WEST...WILL HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...EVENTUALLY
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING ACROSS WESTERN INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LINGERING PRECIPITATION
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT EAST WITH THE UPPER JET
STREAK...BUT ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS MID LEVEL
FORCING WANES. SHOWERS WILL BE FAST MOVING SO NOT ANTICIPATING
MUCH IN REGARDS TO ACCUMULATION.
SOME ELEVATED CAPE IS INDICATED BY MODELS. WHILE WOULD NOT RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...CAPE IS RATHER LIMITED SO WILL NOT
MENTION THUNDER WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. FIGURED WE CAN ALWAYS
ADD IF NEEDED IF LIGHTNING STRIKES BEGIN TO POP UP UPSTREAM OFF TO
OUR WEST AND NORTH.
FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...BOUNDARY LAYER AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED HIGH PERCENTAGE
OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST...WENT A TAD
COOLER/SIMILAR HIGHS OVER MY SOUTHWEST THIRD.
MODELS PERFORMED FAIRLY WELL YESTERDAY WITH THE WINDS. WE
EVENTUALLY REACHED ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND GUSTS MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE BUFKIT INDICATED OVER MUCH OF THE ORIGINAL
ADVISORY AREA. FOR TODAY...BOTH THE 00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT KEEP THE
40KT + WIND GUSTS ABOVE THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER. SO WHILE IT
WILL BE BREEZY...PEAK WINDS WILL BE LOWER THAN WHAT OCCURRED
SUNDAY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...MORE SO GUSTING WITHIN THE 30S MPH
INSTEAD OF IN THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA BEGINNING TO FILL AND DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST. WHAT FOLLOWS
IS A TRANSITION TO A RATHER FAST H500 FLOW REGIME THAT RESULTS IN
A RATHER DRY WEATHER PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED. SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVES DO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN...ON WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN SATURDAY. OTHERWISE THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN COOL ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATING TO THE
60S SATURDAY. LOW MAINLY IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLD/SCT
-SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH NO VIS
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT...CIGS WILL
LOWER...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
BRINGING MVFR CIGS TO KMOT-KJMS...WHILE REMAINING MAJOR TERMINALS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
845 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 832 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
A FEW LIGHT ECHOS STARTING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA INTO EASTERN MONTANA WHILE BAND OF CIRRUS WITH STRONG JET
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA. LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH
THEY MAY PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS
HAS BEEN ADDRESSED BY ADDING LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER UP WITH
CURRENT TREND. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
11Z RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN H300 N-S JET AROUND 135 KTS LYING ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ONGOING 12Z RAOB ALREADY CLOSE TO 150 NM
SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK. BAND OF JET STREAM CIRRUS ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IS PARALLELING THIS JET AND MOVING SOUTHEAST. SURFACE
WINDS AT KBIS WITHIN THE PAST HOUR GUSTING TO 20 KTS BRIEFLY. SO
EXPECT ANOTHER BREEZY DAY. ADJUSTED CLOUDS. OTHERWISE CURRENT FCST
LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING.
CURRENTLY...VERY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A 140KT JET
STREAM MOVING TOWARDS/OVER THE REGION...AND AS WE REMAIN IN
BETWEEN A DEEP UPPER LOW SOUTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY AND A BROAD RIDGE
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. SUBTLE EMBEDDED WAVES CONTINUE TO EITHER
RIDE OVER THE RIDGE OR SPIRAL AROUND THE LOW THEN PROCEED
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...RIGHT
NOW MAINLY RESULTING IN SCT-BKN AREAS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
A MORE DEFINED MID LEVEL IMPULSE...NOW CROSSING THE ALBERTA
ROCKIES...WILL APPROACH AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN EMBEDDED UPPER
JET STREAK ACROSS THE WEST...WILL HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...EVENTUALLY
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING ACROSS WESTERN INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LINGERING PRECIPITATION
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT EAST WITH THE UPPER JET
STREAK...BUT ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS MID LEVEL
FORCING WANES. SHOWERS WILL BE FAST MOVING SO NOT ANTICIPATING
MUCH IN REGARDS TO ACCUMULATION.
SOME ELEVATED CAPE IS INDICATED BY MODELS. WHILE WOULD NOT RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...CAPE IS RATHER LIMITED SO WILL NOT
MENTION THUNDER WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. FIGURED WE CAN ALWAYS
ADD IF NEEDED IF LIGHTNING STRIKES BEGIN TO POP UP UPSTREAM OFF TO
OUR WEST AND NORTH.
FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...BOUNDARY LAYER AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED HIGH PERCENTAGE
OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST...WENT A TAD
COOLER/SIMILAR HIGHS OVER MY SOUTHWEST THIRD.
MODELS PERFORMED FAIRLY WELL YESTERDAY WITH THE WINDS. WE
EVENTUALLY REACHED ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND GUSTS MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE BUFKIT INDICATED OVER MUCH OF THE ORIGINAL
ADVISORY AREA. FOR TODAY...BOTH THE 00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT KEEP THE
40KT + WIND GUSTS ABOVE THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER. SO WHILE IT
WILL BE BREEZY...PEAK WINDS WILL BE LOWER THAN WHAT OCCURRED
SUNDAY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...MORE SO GUSTING WITHIN THE 30S MPH
INSTEAD OF IN THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA BEGINNING TO FILL AND DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST. WHAT FOLLOWS
IS A TRANSITION TO A RATHER FAST H500 FLOW REGIME THAT RESULTS IN
A RATHER DRY WEATHER PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED. SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVES DO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN...ON WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN SATURDAY. OTHERWISE THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN COOL ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATING TO THE
60S SATURDAY. LOW MAINLY IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO CIGS LOWERING NEAR MVFR. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN PICK UP BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...PEAK GUSTS NEAR 30-35KTS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
645 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
11Z RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN H300 N-S JET AROUND 135 KTS LYING ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ONGOING 12Z RAOB ALREADY CLOSE TO 150 NM
SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK. BAND OF JET STREAM CIRRUS ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IS PARALLELING THIS JET AND MOVING SOUTHEAST. SURFACE
WINDS AT KBIS WITHIN THE PAST HOUR GUSTING TO 20 KTS BRIEFLY. SO
EXPECT ANOTHER BREEZY DAY. ADJUSTED CLOUDS. OTHERWISE CURRENT FCST
LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING.
CURRENTLY...VERY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A 140KT JET
STREAM MOVING TOWARDS/OVER THE REGION...AND AS WE REMAIN IN
BETWEEN A DEEP UPPER LOW SOUTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY AND A BROAD RIDGE
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. SUBTLE EMBEDDED WAVES CONTINUE TO EITHER
RIDE OVER THE RIDGE OR SPIRAL AROUND THE LOW THEN PROCEED
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...RIGHT
NOW MAINLY RESULTING IN SCT-BKN AREAS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
A MORE DEFINED MID LEVEL IMPULSE...NOW CROSSING THE ALBERTA
ROCKIES...WILL APPROACH AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN EMBEDDED UPPER
JET STREAK ACROSS THE WEST...WILL HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...EVENTUALLY
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING ACROSS WESTERN INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LINGERING PRECIPITATION
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT EAST WITH THE UPPER JET
STREAK...BUT ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS MID LEVEL
FORCING WANES. SHOWERS WILL BE FAST MOVING SO NOT ANTICIPATING
MUCH IN REGARDS TO ACCUMULATION.
SOME ELEVATED CAPE IS INDICATED BY MODELS. WHILE WOULD NOT RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...CAPE IS RATHER LIMITED SO WILL NOT
MENTION THUNDER WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. FIGURED WE CAN ALWAYS
ADD IF NEEDED IF LIGHTNING STRIKES BEGIN TO POP UP UPSTREAM OFF TO
OUR WEST AND NORTH.
FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...BOUNDARY LAYER AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED HIGH PERCENTAGE
OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST...WENT A TAD
COOLER/SIMILAR HIGHS OVER MY SOUTHWEST THIRD.
MODELS PERFORMED FAIRLY WELL YESTERDAY WITH THE WINDS. WE
EVENTUALLY REACHED ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND GUSTS MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE BUFKIT INDICATED OVER MUCH OF THE ORIGINAL
ADVISORY AREA. FOR TODAY...BOTH THE 00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT KEEP THE
40KT + WIND GUSTS ABOVE THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER. SO WHILE IT
WILL BE BREEZY...PEAK WINDS WILL BE LOWER THAN WHAT OCCURRED
SUNDAY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...MORE SO GUSTING WITHIN THE 30S MPH
INSTEAD OF IN THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA BEGINNING TO FILL AND DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST. WHAT FOLLOWS
IS A TRANSITION TO A RATHER FAST H500 FLOW REGIME THAT RESULTS IN
A RATHER DRY WEATHER PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED. SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVES DO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN...ON WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN SATURDAY. OTHERWISE THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN COOL ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATING TO THE
60S SATURDAY. LOW MAINLY IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO CIGS LOWERING NEAR MVFR. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN PICK UP BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...PEAK GUSTS NEAR 30-35KTS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
857 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG DISTURBANCE WHIPS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH WEAK COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN LATE
THURSDAY IN FAST ZONAL FLOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MESOSCALE UPDATE
AFTER COORDINATING WITH SPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES...EXTENDED
WATCH FOR COAL FIELDS AND ADDED TWO VA COUNTIES ALONG WITH WYOMING
AND MCDOWELL. LET REMAINDER OF WATCH EXPIRE AS CONVECTION ALONG
I64 IS ELEVATED ABOVE STABLE. HOWEVER...STILL CABAPLE OF HAIL. IN
FACT JUST RECEIVED SOME 2.5 INCH ELONGATED HAIL HERE AT THE
OFFICE.
800 PM UPDATE...
ONGOING SVR WX ATTM...
TRIMMED WATCH FOR MOST OF SE OH AND N WV. REMAINDER OF WATCH
INTACT. MESO VORTEX THAT STRADDLED OH RIVER HAS ALMOST DEVELOPED
INTO A MESO LOW OVER S PA/NE WV WITH A TAIL LIKE FEATURE EXTENDING
SW INTO N KY. THIS HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTION
PAST FEW HRS. INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER DYNAMICS REMAIN STRONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET ON THE
ORDER OF 50 KTS IN PLACE ALONG WITH SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.
ALSO HELICITY VALUES REMAIN RATHER BEEFY. AS SUCH...EXPECT ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT TO CONTINUE A FEW MORE HRS ALONG WITH HAIL...PRIMARILY OVER
S WV AND SW VA. WILL BE COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES
ABOUT POTENTIAL EXTENSION OF THE TORNADO WATCH IN TIME AND SPACE.
MODELS ACTUALLY HAVE A REALLY GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS AND LEANED
HEAVILY ON HRRR TO TRACK THIS THRU CWA THIS EVENING...EXITING SW
VA BY 06Z.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING. VAD WINDS NEAR 1730Z AROUND 35 KNOTS AT
850 MBS AT RLX AND ILN. 850 MB JET MAX OF 50 TO 55 KNOTS WHIPS
THROUGH AHEAD OF STRONG MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE MID LEVEL AT 500
MB VORT MAXIMUM SWINGS THROUGH ABOUT 03Z ACROSS NRN WV.
STRONG HELICITY IN THE 400 TO 500 RANGE IN THE FIRST 2 TO 3
KILOMETERS. IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH SOUTH WINDS VEERING. SO CELLS WILL
LIKELY SHOW LOW LEVEL ROTATION. YET BUOYANCY IS LIMITED.
KEEPING POPS IN THE 60 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SURFACE FRONT PASSING 03Z TO 06Z...WITH CLEARING IN ITS WAKE.
DID HOLD ONTO SOME LOWER CLOUDS. STILL THINKING WINDS SUFFICIENT TO
PREVENT MUCH FOG AT DAWN...JUST A BIT IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS IN SRN
WV S OF CRW.
STILL PLEASANT DAY PICTURED ON WEDNESDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ACTIVE WEATHER HOWEVER WILL
RETURN LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE
REGION. THIS...ALONG WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT...WILL TRIGGER ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH ANY STORMS.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN MODELS CONCERNING PLACEMENT OF
FRONT/TRACK OF WAVES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CONTINUED TO LEAN MORE
TOWARDS THE ECMWF/HPC SOLUN...KEEPING HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. PERIOD WILL START WITH
FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG MID LEVEL 500 MB DISTURBANCE WHIPS THROUGH 00Z TO 03Z
WEDNESDAY/THIS EVENING. 850 MB FLOW JET MAX OF 50 TO 55 KNOTS AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE. VEERING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME
CONVECTIVE CELLS TO BE ROTATING.
STILL EXPECTED WIDESPREAD FAST MOVING CONVECTION TO MOVE THRU S
WV/SW VA THIS EVENING.
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 2 TO 3 THSD FT AND VSBY AOB 3 MILES IN ANY
CONVECTION. SOME CEILINGS 1 TO 2 THSD FT LINGERING OVER MOUNTAINS
IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRIER AIR TO QUICKLY CHARGE OUR WAY WITH MAINLY
SCATTERED CLOUDS 12Z TO 18Z. EXPECT LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD PREDAWN FOG.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: AREAL COVERAGE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS ALONG AND IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 10/08/14
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M H M M M H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H M H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H M M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H M H H H H
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/KTB/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/30
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
808 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG DISTURBANCE WHIPS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH WEAK COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN LATE
THURSDAY IN FAST ZONAL FLOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MESOSCALE UPDATE
800 PM UPDATE...
ONGOING SVR WX ATTM...
TRIMMED WATCH FOR MOST OF SE OH AND N WV. REMAINDER OF WATCH
INTACT. MESO VORTEX THAT STRADDLED OH RIVER HAS ALMOST DEVELOPED
INTO A MESO LOW OVER S PA/NE WV WITH A TAIL LIKE FEATURE EXTENDING
SW INTO N KY. THIS HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTION
PAST FEW HRS. INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER DYNAMICS REMAIN STRONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET ON THE
ORDER OF 50 KTS IN PLACE ALONG WITH SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.
ALSO HELICITY VALUES REMAIN RATHER BEEFY. AS SUCH...EXPECT ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT TO CONTINUE A FEW MORE HRS ALONG WITH HAIL...PRIMARILY OVER
S WV AND SW VA. WILL BE COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES
ABOUT POTENTIAL EXTENSION OF THE TORNADO WATCH IN TIME AND SPACE.
MODELS ACTUALLY HAVE A REALLY GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS AND LEANED
HEAVILY ON HRRR TO TRACK THIS THRU CWA THIS EVENING...EXITING SW
VA BY 06Z.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING. VAD WINDS NEAR 1730Z AROUND 35 KNOTS AT
850 MBS AT RLX AND ILN. 850 MB JET MAX OF 50 TO 55 KNOTS WHIPS
THROUGH AHEAD OF STRONG MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE MID LEVEL AT 500
MB VORT MAXIMUM SWINGS THROUGH ABOUT 03Z ACROSS NRN WV.
STRONG HELICITY IN THE 400 TO 500 RANGE IN THE FIRST 2 TO 3
KILOMETERS. IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH SOUTH WINDS VEERING. SO CELLS WILL
LIKELY SHOW LOW LEVEL ROTATION. YET BUOYANCY IS LIMITED.
KEEPING POPS IN THE 60 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SURFACE FRONT PASSING 03Z TO 06Z...WITH CLEARING IN ITS WAKE.
DID HOLD ONTO SOME LOWER CLOUDS. STILL THINKING WINDS SUFFICIENT TO
PREVENT MUCH FOG AT DAWN...JUST A BIT IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS IN SRN
WV S OF CRW.
STILL PLEASANT DAY PICTURED ON WEDNESDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ACTIVE WEATHER HOWEVER WILL
RETURN LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE
REGION. THIS...ALONG WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT...WILL TRIGGER ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH ANY STORMS.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN MODELS CONCERNING PLACEMENT OF
FRONT/TRACK OF WAVES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CONTINUED TO LEAN MORE
TOWARDS THE ECMWF/HPC SOLUN...KEEPING HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. PERIOD WILL START WITH
FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG MID LEVEL 500 MB DISTURBANCE WHIPS THROUGH 00Z TO 03Z
WEDNESDAY/THIS EVENING. 850 MB FLOW JET MAX OF 50 TO 55 KNOTS AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE. VEERING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME
CONVECTIVE CELLS TO BE ROTATING.
STILL EXPECTED WIDESPREAD FAST MOVING CONVECTION TO MOVE THRU S
WV/SW VA THIS EVENING.
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 2 TO 3 THSD FT AND VSBY AOB 3 MILES IN ANY
CONVECTION. SOME CEILINGS 1 TO 2 THSD FT LINGERING OVER MOUNTAINS
IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRIER AIR TO QUICKLY CHARGE OUR WAY WITH MAINLY
SCATTERED CLOUDS 12Z TO 18Z. EXPECT LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD PREDAWN FOG.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: AREAL COVERAGE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS ALONG AND IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 10/08/14
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M H M M M H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H M H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H M M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H M H H H H
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/KTB/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/30
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
753 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY A DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MAY INFLUENCE THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AS WELL. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
BACK EDGE OF MAIN SYNOPTIC BAND OF PRECIP NOW ABOUT HALF WAY ACROSS
THE CWA. AFTER THIS BAND...MAINLY JUST A NARROW BAND ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT. HRRR AND RUC HAVE A LOT OF THE COLD FRONT CONVECTION
NOW IN INDIANA AND LWR MI WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES EAST...PROBABLY
DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT WILL NOT BUY OFF ON THIS AS
MUCH AS THESE MODELS SHOW. WILL ADJUST POPS/WX TO BEST FIT CURRENT
SITUATION WITH PROJECTION INTO NEXT FEW HOURS. A LITTLE LIGHTNING
SHOWING UP IN A FEW SPOTS SO WILL STAY WITH SLIGHT MENTION OF
THUNDER.
OVERNIGHT FORCING AND BEST MOISTURE MOVE EAST WITH DRYING MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE WAVE.
AFTER MIDNIGHT POPS TAPER TO JUST A CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES INTO NWRN PA. GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S LOOK
FINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER
LOW NORTH OF THE LAKES FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL EAST. NAM12 SHOWS
FAIRLY DRY AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA. ENOUGH MOISTURE HANGS OVER
THE NORTHEAST TO HOLD ONTO CLOUDS THERE HOWEVER. 850MB TEMPS NEAR
0C WED AFTERNOON AND BUFKIT SHOWS ONLY CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY
WITH REGARD TO THE LAKE WHICH IS AT 63F OFF KCLE SO FOR NOW HIGH
CHANCE POPS LOOK FINE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS NWRN PA...OTHERWISE DRY AS WEAK HIGH APPEARS TO HOLD
ON AHEAD OF APPROACHING OVERRUNNING MOISTURE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MODELS HAVE BEEN AND CONTINUE TO BE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH
HOW FAR NORTH THE DEEP MOISTURE REACHES. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOIST
MODEL WITH THE NAM NOW HOLDING THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
THE SREF OFFERS NO STARK RESOLUTION BETWEEN THE OTHER TWO. SO FOR
NOW WILL BRING AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...MAINLY
SOUTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT
DRY AIR AND HIGHER PRESSURE BUILD TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE SKIES. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION
ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST AS WELL INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A
RETURN BACK TO A THREAT FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EAST AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL SETUP SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW BY MONDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THE LOW
WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RETURN AS THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES LODGED
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS AND THE SOUTHERN FLOW PUMPS WARMER AIR AND
MORE MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. AT
00Z/8 PM EDT THE FRONT WAS OVER NORTHWEST OHIO. SOME SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST BY MIDNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN...HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY PERSIST
DURING THE NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE LAKE AND ALONG THE LAKESHORE. NON VFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE MAIN BATCH OF SHOWERS THAT WILL BE MOVING EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 10 PM EDT/02Z. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
DURING THE NIGHT SO EVEN WITH VARYING VFR CLOUD COVER NOT
EXPECTING ANY FOG.
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE COLD ADVECTION IT WILL BE BREEZY WITH WEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. SOME VFR CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP...SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FEET.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY WELL INLAND OF LAKE ERIE AND
LATE ON SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SOME TIME. EXPECTING
THE POSSIBILITY THAT WINDS COULD DIE DOWN FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. ONCE THE TROUGH GOES BY
WINDS WILL INCREASE QUITE A BIT LATER TONIGHT. SO WILL JUST GO AHEAD
AND KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING. BEST AREA FOR THE LIGHTER
WINDS IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AREA WILL BE NORTH OF CLEVELAND. I
STILL THINK SMALL CRAFT WILL BE WARRANTED THERE ONCE WINDS SHIFT
LATER ON THIS EVENING. JUST SPOKE WITH OUR FRIENDS IN CANADA ON
POSSIBLE GALE WARNING FOR LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY. WE DECIDED TO HOLD
OFF ON THE ISSUANCE DUE TO THE WINDS INCREASING TO 30 KNOTS AND NOT
EXPECTED TO QUITE REACH GALES. IF IT DOES...IT SHOULD ONLY LAST A
FEW HOURS. SO WILL HOLD OFF ON THE GALE FOR NOW. WINDS FINALLY
DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS INTO
SATURDAY. EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ON SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
616 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE THE PARADE OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
PRODUCE PEA TO PENNY SIZE HAIL. WILL FOLLOW THE HRRR TREND OF
INCREASING POPS AND COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN
OHIO...MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL ALSO HAVE LIKELY POPS INITIALLY
FAR NORTHWEST. BY MID EVENING DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. WILL END PRECIP WEST IN THE EVENING AND TAPER EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. MID 40S LOOK GOOD FOR LOWS. NO
CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY MODELS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE RETURNING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF A DECENT SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WILL BEGIN WITH MOST AREAS DRY ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE
POP FAR SOUTHWEST TO START IN THE MORNING. THROUGH THE MORNING WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD CHANCE POPS EAST INTO NORTHEAST OHIO WHILE POPS
WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY SOUTHWEST. FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE
MOST AREAS TO CAT POPS AS MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE POSITIONED
FAVORABLY UNDER THE JET FOR DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BASE OF THE
TROF ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH BY EVENING CAT POPS WILL BE JUST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHILE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
WILL REMAIN WEST AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WEDNESDAY
MORNING 850MB TEMPS DROP TO +2C AND DROP TO NEAR 0C BY 18Z. WILL
NEED TO LEAVE CHANCE POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT IN THE SNOWBELT
COUNTIES...FOR RAIN. OTHERWISE WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD IN FOR A DECENT DAY. THURSDAY MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY.
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH DEEP OVERRUNNING MOISTURE THAT SPREADS EAST QUICKLY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE DIFFERENCES HOWEVER IS THAT WHILE THE
GFS BRINGS THE SWATH OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA...THEN NAM HOLDS
IT WELL TO THE SOUTH. THE SREF SHOWS MORE OF A THIRD SOLUTION
RATHER THAN SUPPORTING THE NAM OR GFS. SO FOR NOW WILL MEET IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE NAM AND GFS AND BRING CHANCE POPS TO NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND LIKELY POPS SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS SOUTH AND CHANCE NORTH. TEMPS
TUESDAY NEAR NORMAL AND THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
SHORT TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ETERNAL EASTERN UNITED STATES UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES RIDGE. SOME RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING TROUGH IN
THE WEST. EVENTUALLY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SHIFT EAST OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS REFLECTS TO THE SURFACE IN
THE FORM OF A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BY MONDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER OKLAHOMA AND MOVE EAST TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE LOW
ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL SET UP A FLOW OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN A BIT FOR FRIDAY BUT BEGIN TO
TRANSITION BACK UP AGAIN IN THE SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS
TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. A
BIG GAP HAS FORMED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ACTIVITY BUT IS EXPECTED
TO FILL IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL
THEN MOVE QUICKLY EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH FAIR WEATHER
RETURNING THROUGH THE MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND LOWER
CEILINGS ARRIVE AROUND 17Z IN THE WEST TOMORROW.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NON-VFR LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE LAKE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT TIGHT SUPPORTING WIND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING FROM THE SOUTH AND THEN BECOME
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE PERIODIC DROPS IN THE WIND BUT
THE OVERALL TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IS THE WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH THAT WE WILL NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
UNTIL THEN WINDS DO DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AS THEY BECOME NORTHERLY AND
DIMINISH EVEN FURTHER ON SATURDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
206 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE INCREASED MONDAY. DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST FLOW CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN LATE THURSDAY IN FAST ZONAL FLOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MUCH MORE ACTIVE AUTUMN PATTERN...AS SPOKES OF ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED SPEED MAXIMUMS ROTATE AROUND THE BROAD 500 MB TROF
OVER WESTERN ONTARIO.
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WAS INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR THE CLUSTERS TO COME LATE. AS MENTIONED THIS
MORNING...HARD TO TIME THE INDIVIDUAL SHOWER/STORM CLUSTERS IN THIS
FAST FLOW. MAIN 500 MB VORT MAXIMUM ON 16Z RAP NOT PASSING INTO OUR
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES UNTIL AFTER 06Z TUESDAY. WILL HOLD LIKELY POPS
THERE MOST OF THE NIGHT. WITHOUT AN ORGANIZED SURFACE
FEATURE...LIKE A FRONT...HARD TO TIME REMOVE OF POP...BUT DROPPED
BELOW 15 PCT IN THE MID OHIO VALLEY AFTER 06Z...IN WAKE OF THAT 500
MB AXIS. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LOWER IN THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...SO WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD LOWER CLOUDS THAN SURFACE BASED
FOG FOR THE PREDAWN HOURS.
FAVORED THE FASTER 12Z GFS OVER THE SLOWER NAM FOR NEXT DISTURBANCE
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SO INCREASED POPS FASTER FROM WEST TO
EAST.
WILL FINE TUNE MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT HOUR...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY BIG
CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN THIS PERIOD. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN FAST W-NW FLOW THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROF/COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH EAST EARLY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY.
HAVE CONTINUED TREND FROM EARLIER GRIDS AS WET WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY SEASONABLE CONDITIONS BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING ON THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
BECOMING ORIENTED WEST TO EAST...FROM KENTUCKY TO VIRGINIA...UNDER
MOIST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK ITS WAY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG FRONT
JUST TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED PERIOD. DEPENDING
ON WHICH MODEL YOU PICK...BY SATURDAY...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND
THE TIMING THESE FEATURES WILL DIFFER. POPULATING WITH WPC TEMPS AND
POPS GUIDANCE WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DEW POINT. THIS LEADS TO A CEILING DILEMMA FOR
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
TRENDING MORE TOWARD MORE CLOUDS AT 1 TO 2 THSD FT OVERNIGHT AND
VSBY 2 TO 4 MILES VERSUS THICKER SURFACE BASED FOG. ALL IN ALL
THOUGH...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN CEILING HEIGHTS 03Z THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY.
IN THE MEANWHILE...MORE DISTURBANCE AROUND THE BROAD 500 MB TROF
BASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HAVE MOSTLY CEILINGS
2 TO 3 THSD AND VSBY 3 TO 5 MILES IN CONVECTION.
FAVORED THE FASTER 12Z GFS OVER THE NAM WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ON
TUESDAY. SO HAVE SHOWERS/STORMS INCREASING SOONER...DURING THE 15Z
TO 18Z TIME FRAME IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES ON TUESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE AND TIMING OF LOWER CEILINGS VERSUS
DENSER FOG OVERNIGHT COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M H M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS OR FOG OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. IFR IN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/KMC/KTB
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
155 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE INCREASED MONDAY. DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST FLOW CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN LATE THURSDAY IN FAST ZONAL FLOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MUCH MORE ACTIVE AUTUMN PATTERN...AS SPOKES OF ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED SPEED MAXIMUMS ROTATE AROUND THE BROAD 500 MB TROF
OVER WESTERN ONTARIO.
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WAS INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR THE CLUSTERS TO COME LATE. AS MENTIONED THIS
MORNING...HARD TO TIME THE INDIVIDUAL SHOWER/STORM CLUSTERS IN THIS
FAST FLOW. MAIN 500 MB VORT MAXIMUM ON 16Z RAP NOT PASSING INTO OUR
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES UNTIL AFTER 06Z TUESDAY. WILL HOLD LIKELY POPS
THERE MOST OF THE NIGHT. WITHOUT AN ORGANIZED SURFACE
FEATURE...LIKE A FRONT...HARD TO TIME REMOVE OF POP...BUT DROPPED
BELOW 15 PCT IN THE MID OHIO VALLEY AFTER 06Z...IN WAKE OF THAT 500
MB AXIS. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LOWER IN THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...SO WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD LOWER CLOUDS THAN SURFACE BASED
FOG FOR THE PREDAWN HOURS.
FAVORED THE FASTER 12Z GFS OVER THE SLOWER NAM FOR NEXT DISTURBANCE
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SO INCREASED POPS FASTER FROM WEST TO
EAST.
WILL FINE TUNE MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT HOUR...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY BIG
CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS
PERIOD...TRANSITIONING FROM A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW AFTER MID WEEK. THIS BECOMES A
VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH NO GREAT TEMPERATURE CHANGES AS FRONTAL
SYSTEMS MEANDER BACK AND FORTH. WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO OPEN WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THERE WILL
BE GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS.
ONE SUCH FRONTAL SYSTEM COMES ACROSS TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. SOME INSTABILITY IS
INDICATED BY GUIDANCE SO WILL PUT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. MODELS ARE QUICKER
EXITING THIS FRONT...SO HAVE TAPERED OFF POPS QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT DOWN THIS WAY...AS THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES FLATTER. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY
WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM COMES IN THURSDAY...AND THIS IS ALSO HANDLED
FAIRLY WELL BY THE MODELS. BY THIS TIME...WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE
ZONAL...THE FRONT WILL BECOME ORIENTED MORE EAST TO WEST AS IT MOVES
INTO OUR AREA...AND GIVE US A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
MODELS INDICATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF COMING IN WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT AT THIS TIME FRAME...WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY
WATER ISSUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
USED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THIS WOULD KEEP
A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE REGION AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
IN THE AREA. THIS FRONT WOULD RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. A WAVE WOULD THEN MOVE ALONG THE FRONT
PUSHING IT BACK SOUTHWARD A BIT ON FRIDAY...ONLY TO RETURN
NORTHWARD AGAIN WITH ANOTHER WAVE ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DEW POINT. THIS LEADS TO A CEILING DILEMMA FOR
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
TRENDING MORE TOWARD MORE CLOUDS AT 1 TO 2 THSD FT OVERNIGHT AND
VSBY 2 TO 4 MILES VERSUS THICKER SURFACE BASED FOG. ALL IN ALL
THOUGH...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN CEILING HEIGHTS 03Z THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY.
IN THE MEANWHILE...MORE DISTURBANCE AROUND THE BROAD 500 MB TROF
BASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HAVE MOSTLY CEILINGS
2 TO 3 THSD AND VSBY 3 TO 5 MILES IN CONVECTION.
FAVORED THE FASTER 12Z GFS OVER THE NAM WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ON
TUESDAY. SO HAVE SHOWERS/STORMS INCREASING SOONER...DURING THE 15Z
TO 18Z TIME FRAME IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES ON TUESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE AND TIMING OF LOWER CEILINGS VERSUS
DENSER FOG OVERNIGHT COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M H M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS OR FOG OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. IFR IN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/KMC/KTB
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
903 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE INCREASES WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST FLOW THROUGH
TUESDAY. COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY PRESSURE FOR
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MUCH MORE ACTIVE AUTUMN PATTERN...AS SPOKES OF ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED SPEED MAXIMUMS ROTATE AROUND THE BROAD 500 MB TROF
OVER WESTERN ONTARIO.
IN THE MID MORNING UPDATE...WAS A BIT FASTER INTRODUCING POPS FROM
SW TO NE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THE INITIAL
SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY NEAR 13Z. YET...HARD TO
FIGURE WHEN THERE WILL BE LULLS BETWEEN CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THIS AFTERNOON.
VAD WINDS AT 925 MB AT RLX HAVE JUST INCREASED TO 30 KNOTS.
INCREASED SYNOPTIC SURFACE WINDS TODAY.
THE MAIN DYNAMICS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING MOVING
WEST TO EAST. CONVECTION DRIVEN BY DYNAMICS RATHER THAN SURFACE
DEVELOPED INSTABILITY. 11Z RAP HAS ONLY ABOUT 500 TO 700 J/KG CAPE
DEVELOPING. FIGURING CELL MOVEMENT WILL BE 40 TO 45 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. WITH FAST MOVEMENT NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT
ANY FLOOD POTENTIAL.
WAS A BIT FASTER REDUCING POPS THIS EVENING IN THE OHIO VALLEY AS
DYNAMICS MOVES EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS
PERIOD...TRANSITIONING FROM A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW AFTER MID WEEK. THIS BECOMES A VERY
UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH NO GREAT TEMPERATURE CHANGES AS FRONTAL
SYSTEMS MEANDER BACK AND FORTH. WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO OPEN WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THERE WILL
BE GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS.
ONE SUCH FRONTAL SYSTEM COMES ACROSS TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. SOME INSTABILITY IS
INDICATED BY GUIDANCE SO WILL PUT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. MODELS ARE QUICKER
EXITING THIS FRONT...SO HAVE TAPERED OFF POPS QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT DOWN THIS WAY...AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES FLATTER. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY WITH DRY
AND MILD CONDITIONS.
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM COMES IN THURSDAY...AND THIS IS ALSO HANDLED
FAIRLY WELL BY THE MODELS. BY THIS TIME...WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE
ZONAL...THE FRONT WILL BECOME ORIENTED MORE EAST TO WEST AS IT MOVES
INTO OUR AREA...AND GIVE US A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
MODELS INDICATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF COMING IN WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT AT THIS TIME FRAME...WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY
WATER ISSUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
USED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THIS WOULD KEEP
A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE REGION AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
IN THE AREA. THIS FRONT WOULD RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. A WAVE WOULD THEN MOVE ALONG THE FRONT
PUSHING IT BACK SOUTHWARD A BIT ON FRIDAY...ONLY TO RETURN
NORTHWARD AGAIN WITH ANOTHER WAVE ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPC HAS EXTENDED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
HTS TERMINAL FOR TODAY.
EXPECTING THE FIRST LINE OF CONVECTION TO ENTER THE WESTERN
TERMINALS AFTER 17Z...WITH INDICATIONS THAT THIS COULD BE A LINE
OF STORMS CARRYING 30KT GUSTS AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. USED TEMPO
GROUPS FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT DOWNPLAY THE THUNDER AND GUST
THREAT FOR THE MOUNTAIN TERMINALS AT BKW AND EKN. SOME WIND TODAY
WILL KEEP THE VISIBILITIES UP EVEN DURING RAIN AT MOST PLACES
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.
BEYOND THAT...WITH THE RAIN EXITING AND WIND COMING DOWN...FEEL
IFR OR WORSE FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT DESPITE SOME CLOUD COVER
HANGING IN PLACE GIVEN THE RECEIVED RAINFALL. CONFIDENCE TAKES A
HIT IN THIS SCENARIO HOWEVER BUT FEEL IT IS WORTH A MENTION AT
SOME LOCATIONS. LAMP GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT THIS...ALTHOUGH THE
MET/MAV DOES.
EXPECTING DAYTIME GUSTS IN THE 15-20KT RANGE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY EVEN WITHOUT THUNDERSTORM INFLUENCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTION TIMING COULD VARY. FOG LATE MAY
NOT DEVELOP.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 10/06/14
UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS OR STORMS MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
948 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST..OTHER THAN TO
DELAY RAIN CHANCE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. ALSO RAISED MIN
TEMPS SOUTH AND CENTRAL GIVEN CURRENT DEWPOINTS.
LATEST 00Z WRF BLOWS PRECIP UP 10Z-15Z NE OK / NW AR.
LIKELY OVERBLOWN. LATEST HRRR ONLY A HINT OF SHRA IN
THAT TIME PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH WILL
LIKELY SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AFTER 09-10Z ACROSS PORTIONS
OF FAR NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR...MAINLY IMPACTING THE
KFYV/KXNA AND KFSM TAF SITES INTO THE MORNING HOURS. LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR STORMS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014/
DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
A GOOD 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
FRONT WILL STALL OVER AFOREMENTIONED AREA OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
SUFFICIENT SHEAR/ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. ANY ONGOING
STORMS WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY MID MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET
BEGINS TO DECREASE.
WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST. DEEPER MOISTURE
FROM REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WILL MERGE WITH UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. FLOODING COULD BECOME AN ISSUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
BEFORE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
STILL SOME BIG DIFFERENCES CONCERNING STRENGTH OF UPPER TROUGH
THAT MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
ECMWF MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH SYSTEM...COMPARED TO THE PROGRESSIVE
/WEAKER GFS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS. IF GFS BEGINS
TO TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF...POPS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE INCREASED
INCLUDING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME. ALSO...ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WOULD INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 64 88 68 87 / 30 20 20 30
FSM 66 87 65 87 / 40 20 10 10
MLC 70 88 71 88 / 20 10 10 10
BVO 57 88 63 86 / 30 20 30 40
FYV 56 82 60 85 / 40 20 20 20
BYV 56 80 62 84 / 40 20 30 30
MKO 66 87 66 88 / 30 20 10 20
MIO 57 83 65 85 / 40 20 40 40
F10 68 88 69 87 / 20 10 10 10
HHW 68 88 67 86 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1205 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.AVIAION...
06/06Z TAFS...
LINE OF TSTMS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL OK THIS EVENING. STORMS
WILL BE SOUTH OF CNTRL OK SITES BY 06Z AND ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN EAST OF KLAW/KSPS AS THEY MOVE SEWD. WITH STORMS MOVING AWAY
FROM TAF SITES...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014/
.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO PRECIP/WEATHER...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER HAS INCREASED A SKOSH
MORE ACROSS NRN OK THIS EVENING... NOW THAT THE ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY HAS INTERACTED WITH A MORE SUPPORTIVE MOISTURE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NRN OK. GIVEN THE UPTICK IN DEVELOPMENT AND
OVERALL TRACK... INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER
FOR THE OKC METRO OVERNIGHT. THE 01Z RAP APPEARS TO HAVE AN OKAY
HANDLE ON DEVELOPMENT... WITH AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TMRW MORNING AS THE SFC LOW LINGERS OVER WEST TX...
WITH AN INCREASING SFC TROUGH EXTENDING INTO SERN OK. AS THE SFC
OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH S/SE TONIGHT... IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO AN OVERALL BETTER ENVIRONMENT... INCREASING SUPPORT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL OK... AND PORTIONS OF NRN TX.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014/
AVIATION...
06/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING AT AND NEAR
KPNC AS ACTIVITY OVER KANSAS SPREADS SOUTHEAST WITH JET STREAK -
S/WV TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...SOUTH AND EAST OF
OUR TERMINALS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATE TO PRECIP/WX...
DISCUSSION...
INTERESTING FORECAST THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK H500
SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH. CURRENTLY... ACROSS
KANSAS... AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY MOVE S/SE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ROOTED ALONG
A WEAK ISENTROPIC RESPONSE... SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 310 TO 315K... THE
LOCATION OF THE BEST MOISTURE WITHIN THE MID LEVELS. GIVEN 17Z
SOUNDING FROM LAMONT (LMN) IN NRN OK... THE LL/BL REMAINS
NOTICABLE DRY... AND COMPARED TO SFC OBS... THE RETURNS VISIBLE
ON RADAR ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK ARE LIKELY REPRESENTATIVE OF VIRGA.
HOWEVER... AS THE WAVE PROGRESSES S/SE THROUGH THE EVENING...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER AS WELL GIVEN COLD TEMPS ALOFT.
FURTHER SOUTH... ALONG THE RED RIVER/TEXOMA REGION OF SOUTH
CENTRAL OK/WRN N TX. DECENT WAA HAS CONTINUED TO TRANSPORT A
MODEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE LL/BL. COMBINED WITH A WEAK
SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE LLANO ESTACADO/CAPROCK
IN WEST TX... THERE REMAINS ENOUGH FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDER TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE KS/NRN
OK ACTIVITY.
AT THE MOMENT... NOT OVERLY CONVINCED OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP IN
CENTRAL OK/THE METRO. HOWEVER... IF YOU ALLOW ME TO HEDGE A BIT...
GIVEN THE MOISTURE PROFILE/LIFT... WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
DRIZZLE DEVELOPED LATE TONIGHT... WITH BEST CHANCES EAST OF I-35.
JTK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 143 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE VERY WEAK FRONT THAT IS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA TODAY
WILL LIE OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT WHEN A FAST-MOVING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES. THESE FEATURES WILL INTERSECT GREATER
MOISTURE IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND GIVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THROUGH MID-WEEK VERY
HOT WEATHER WILL QUICKLY RETURN. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S. BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES WILL BECOME
STRONGER OVER OKLAHOMA AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. LONGER-TERM MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
AGREE ON THE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY TIME FRAME FOR THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN IN OKLAHOMA. A RE-PHASING OF THE TWO BRANCHES OF THE
WESTERLIES IS EXPECTED IN THE WEEKEND WHEN RAIN CHANCES END AND
COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 57 87 60 92 / 20 10 10 0
HOBART OK 55 88 59 92 / 10 10 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 61 89 64 94 / 20 10 10 0
GAGE OK 46 88 52 90 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 51 83 55 91 / 20 10 10 0
DURANT OK 63 85 65 91 / 30 20 10 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1128 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE BASE OF THIS LOW WILL IMPACT PENNSYLVANIA TODAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO PENNSYLVANIA FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN A CLIPPER LOW COULD TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A RELATIVELY BRIEF...SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE/CLEARING
/BENEATH THE LEFT REAR QUAD OF A 90 KT 300MB JETLET/ WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING WEAK
SHORTWAVE.
WATER VAPOR LOOP LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE
TURNING EAST ACRS THE MID MISS VALLEY. STRONG SOUTHERLY LL JET
AND ASSOC WAA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN PA
LATE TODAY...SPREADING LAYERED CLOUDS AND THE CHC OF SHOWERS INTO
THE ALLEGHENY MTNS BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST HRRR AND SIMILAR SET OF
PREVIOUS GRIDDED FCST TO RE-INTRODUCE SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN MTS
21-22Z TODAY...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES BEGINNING
AROUND 23Z.
THE SUNSHINE...COMBINED WITH RISING TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN
A MUCH MILDER DAY THAN SUNDAY. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH A
HIGH IN THE L60S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...AND U60S TO LOWER 70S
THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY.
INCREASING MIXING WITHIN DEEPENING BLYR SHOULD DRAW SOME FAIRLY
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC THIS AFTN. BUKFIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS
IN THE 20-25KT RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AFOREMENTIONED...POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NE ACROSS WESTERN PA
TONIGHT. STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ALONG AXIS OF
ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY LL JET SHOULD PRODUCE A NEAR CERTAINTY OF
SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
GEFS 850 MFLUX VALUES PEAK BTWN 00Z-06Z WITH PASSAGE OF STRONG LL
JET. SOME MEAGER CAPES IN THE MDL DATA ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU THIS EVENING...SO HAVE INCLUDED SCHC OF THUNDER THERE.
HAVE COVERED THE SE COUNTIES WITH LOWER /CHC/ POPS LATE
TONIGHT...AS BEST FORCING IMPLIED BY MDL 500-300MB Q-VEC
CONVERGENCE LIFTS NORTH BEFORE REACHING EASTERN PA. CLOUD COVER
AND SURGE OF HIGHER DWPTS ON SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD
TONIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSE TO 50F.
ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IN THE SUCCESSION OF SHORTWAVES SHOULD OCCUR
TUESDAY...AS TONIGHT/S SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH OF PA AND NEXT POTENT
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD PA BY LATE IN THE
DAY. PTSUNNY SKIES EARLY IN THE DAY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A CHC OF SHOWERS TOWARD EVENING...AS STRONG WAA
OVERSPREADS THE REGION AT NOSE OF ANOMALOUS LL JET. MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY SHOULD BE AOA CLIMO AVERAGES BASED ON ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS.
HARD TO SEE HOW ANY OF CENTRAL PA ESCAPES RAINFALL TUE
NIGHT...WHEN ALL MDL DATA TRACK NOSE OF ANOMALOUS LL JET ACROSS
THE AREA. GEFS AND SREF PLUMES SUPPORT CATEGORCIAL POPS
EVERYWHERE. SMALL CAPES COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE COULD AGAIN LEAD TO THE CHC OF THUNDER TUES NIGHT. FAST
MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND PWATS ONLY SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL SHOULD
LEAD TO UNIMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS...LIKELY IN THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH RANGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WX STILL SEEMS PROBABLE FROM WED INTO EARLY
THURS AS THE DEEP LOW/TROUGH WEAKENS AND PIVOTS NEWD INTO NRN
QUEBEC. THE 00Z MED RANGE GUIDANCE IS IMPLYING THE LIKELY PASSAGE
OF A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER WITH CHC OF SHRA LATE THU/THU NIGHT. A
TRAILING WEST-EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BNDRY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM COULD
STALL OUT JUST S OF PA...POTENTIALLY PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. THERE ARE SOME N-S
PLACEMENT DIFFS IN THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS WHICH WILL NEED
TO BE RESOLVED...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST THE SRN 1/2 OF THE
AREA COULD SEE A LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF CLEARING /VFR/ OVER ERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENN WILL
WORK EASTWARD INTO PA DURING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MORE SHOWERS TONIGHT /AND AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS/...AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS WILL BEGINN BETWEEN 21-22Z THEN
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY BY 23-01Z.
EXPECT SOME CLEARING AGAIN TUE AFT...BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE TUE/EARLY WED.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM WEST...BRINGING SCT SHRA.
ISO TSRA POSS TUE AFTERNOON. CIG/VSBY IMPACTS LIKELY IN WEST AND
CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY.
WED-THU...MVFR CIGS/SCT SHRA PSBL NW WED IMPROVING CONDITION WED
INTO THURS MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.
FRI...CIG REDUCTIONS IN RAIN POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1007 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.UPDATE...
CURRENTLY MONITORING A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION PUSHING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH KENTUCKY...WHICH RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES SHOULD HOLD
TOGETHER AND PUSH THROUGH THE MID-STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO
EARLY MORNING HOURS...REACHING THE ALABAMA BORDER AROUND 12Z.
EXPECT MAINLY BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS...THOUGH
SMALL HAIL MAY BE A POSSIBILITY WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. THE 00Z
BNA SOUNDING INDICATES ABOUT A 2500FT INVERSION NEAR THE -10C
LEVEL BUT MOST OF THE CAPE LYING IN THE 5K TO 10K FT LAYER. DUE TO
THE PROGRESSIVE STORM MOTION PEAK QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES
SEEM REASONABLE...WITH MOST PLACES RECEIVING LESS THAN THAT.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
325 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
FRESH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S WITH
A SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S CAPES WERE RISING INTO THE
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. USING THE HRRR OUTPUT SEE MORE SCATTERED
RAINFALL WITH PERHAPS A STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL. GFS/NAM HAVE
SUGGESTED MORE ROBUST STORMS TO DEVELOP. THERE IS LITTLE OR NO
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND THE OCTOBER DIABATIC CONTRIBUTION IS NOT
STRONG. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS
WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. SCATTERED RAINFALL IS THEN POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT.
AS THE WARM SECTOR MOVES INTO OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY WE CATCH A
BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER.
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THOUGHT MONDAY)...
ON THURSDAY THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE RAINFALL BECOMES ENHANCED
PROXIMAL TO A SLOW MOVING WEST TO EAST COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE THE REGION FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL IN
QUESTION...HOWEVER WHEN THE FRONT DOES MOVE IN TEMPERATURES AND
CONSISTENT RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY. FOR NOW THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
CONSERVATIVE WAITING FOR FUTURES MODEL RUNS BEFORE PLACING MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTCOME.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THIS FRONT THEN BEGINS TO MOVE BACK
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BELLES
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF SET
REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND KTUP BETWEEN
20-23Z. HAVE PUSHED TEMPO GROUP BACK AS A RESULT. ACTIVITY SHOULD
PUSH EAST BY 00-01Z. ADDITIONAL SHRA ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP AFTER 6Z
ACROSS CWA. HAVE PUT VCSH WORDING AT ALL TAF SITES. CIGS MAY LOWER
TO VFR AROUND 12Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD. SW WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 12 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH DURING EVENING HOURS BUT WILL BEGIN TO PICK
BACK UP AGAIN AROUND 12Z.
KRM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1211 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.UPDATE... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
FOCUS IS ON THE REDEVELOPMENT FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION IS
WHERE AND WHAT INTENSITY. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE NAM THE MOST BULLISH FOR REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE/NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON MOVING
SOUTH THROUGH EVENING. THE GFS SUPPORTS REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA AND THE HRRR IS NOT SHOWING AS MUCH ACTIVITY
WITH LATEST RUN.
THE ISSUE IS FORCING. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND JET MAX ROTATING
THROUGH THE WEST SIDE OF DEEP TROUGH IS THE FOCUS. NOT A LOT OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE WITH INSTABILITY DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW MUCH WE CAN
WARM UNDER AN EARLY OCTOBER SUN. INSTABILITY LOOKS DECENT ON THE
NAM ALTHOUGH THAT IS DEPENDENT ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACHING
NEAR 80....THEREFORE INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION IS CONDITIONAL ON
OUR SURFACE HEATING. FOR NOW WILL KEEP LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS AS MAIN THREAT IN THE HWO.
HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE A LITTLE SECTION OF THE SLIGHT RISK ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE LEAVING A BULK THE EXISTING AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
BELLES
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST THAT
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. ALSO A SMALL CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN MISSOURI BOOT HEEL MOVING EAST. EXPECT THESE
STORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING AND THEN MORE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY INCREASES
ALONG WITH AVAILABLE ENERGY THIS AFTERNOON AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...IN CANADA MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THE FIRST IS BRINGING THE CURRENT SHOWERS AND THEN THE SECOND WILL
ALLOW FOR THE ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY DUE TO
THESE SHORTWAVES AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.
AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA TODAY. AFTER TODAY...THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM DOESN/T MOVE
MUCH...IT STICKS AROUND THE MID-SOUTH FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER CANADA BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...THIS ALLOWS MORE MOISTURE TO BE PUSHED
INTO AREA FROM THE WHAT WILL BE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL STORM
SIMON. THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA FINAL PUSHES TO THE EAST AT THE END
OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
WHICH MAY BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING PART
OF THE WEEK AND THEN WILL COOL OFF TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ARE UPPER 70S FOR
HIGHS AND MID 50S FOR LOWS.
TLSJR
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF SET
REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND KTUP BETWEEN
20-23Z. HAVE PUSHED TEMPO GROUP BACK AS A RESULT. ACTIVITY SHOULD
PUSH EAST BY 00-01Z. ADDITIONAL SHRA ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP AFTER 6Z
ACROSS CWA. HAVE PUT VCSH WORDING AT ALL TAF SITES. CIGS MAY LOWER
TO VFR AROUND 12Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD. SW WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 12 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH DURING EVENING HOURS BUT WILL BEGIN TO PICK
BACK UP AGAIN AROUND 12Z.
KRM
&&
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1113 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.UPDATE...
FOCUS IS ON THE REDEVELOPMENT FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION IS
WHERE AND WHAT INTENSITY. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE NAM THE MOST BULLISH FOR REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE/NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON MOVING
SOUTH THROUGH EVENING. THE GFS SUPPORTS REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA AND THE HRRR IS NOT SHOWING AS MUCH ACTIVITY
WITH LATEST RUN.
THE ISSUE IS FORCING. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND JET MAX ROTATING
THROUGH THE WEST SIDE OF DEEP TROUGH IS THE FOCUS. NOT A LOT OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE WITH INSTABILITY DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW MUCH WE CAN
WARM UNDER AN EARLY OCTOBER SUN. INSTABILITY LOOKS DECENT ON THE
NAM ALTHOUGH THAT IS DEPENDENT ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACHING
NEAR 80....THEREFORE INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION IS CONDITIONAL ON
OUR SURFACE HEATING. FOR NOW WILL KEEP LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS AS MAIN THREAT IN THE HWO.
HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE A LITTLE SECTION OF THE SLIGHT RISK ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE LEAVING A BULK THE EXISTING AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
BELLES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST THAT SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. ALSO A SMALL CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN MISSOURI BOOT HEEL MOVING EAST. EXPECT THESE
STORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING AND THEN MORE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY INCREASES
ALONG WITH AVAILABLE ENERGY THIS AFTERNOON AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...IN CANADA MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THE FIRST IS BRINGING THE CURRENT SHOWERS AND THEN THE SECOND WILL
ALLOW FOR THE ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY DUE TO
THESE SHORTWAVES AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.
AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA TODAY. AFTER TODAY...THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM DOESN/T MOVE
MUCH...IT STICKS AROUND THE MID-SOUTH FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER CANADA BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...THIS ALLOWS MORE MOISTURE TO BE PUSHED
INTO AREA FROM THE WHAT WILL BE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL STORM
SIMON. THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA FINAL PUSHES TO THE EAST AT THE END
OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
WHICH MAY BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING PART
OF THE WEEK AND THEN WILL COOL OFF TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ARE UPPER 70S FOR
HIGHS AND MID 50S FOR LOWS.
TLSJR
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONE
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF
WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. MORE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT.
ARS
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
859 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
MOSTLY SUB SEVERE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS AS SHORT WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE AREA. PEA TO MARBLE
SIZED HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER STORMS. ENHANCED VILS
HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY BELOW 5 G/M3.
A MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX ON THE ORDER OF 130 KNOTS IS
POISED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING ALREADY NOSING DOWN INTO
MISSOURI. A PIECE OF THIS ENERGY EJECTS DOWN ACROSS KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SO WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
TOTAL TOTALS CLIMB TO 56 ON THE RUC13 BY 22Z WITH A SWEAT OF 432
WITH GOOD MID LEVEL DRYING. LOOKING AT THE HODOGRAPH PROFILE AN
ISOLATED TWISTER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
BOYD
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1151 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014
.UPDATE...EVENING AND FOR 06Z AVIATION
&&
.EVENING UPDATE...
INCLUDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE FAR NRN AREAS ALONG
THE KY BORDER. SHORT-WAVE ENERGY ACROSS IL/IN IS HELPING TO
GENERATE THIS CONVECTION...WHILE STRONGER CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE PLAINS DOWNSTREAM FROM A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND UPPER
LEVEL JET. THE LATTER IS FORECAST FROM THE HRRR AND THE NEWEST 00Z
MODEL DATA TO REACH THE WRN HALF OF OUR CWA BY 12Z. INCREASED POPS
TOWARDS 12Z AS A RESULT.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA ARE DEVELOPING NEAR THE KY/TN BORDER. MAY KEEP A TEMPO
TSRA IN AT CKV AS A RESULT. HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION DURING THIS TAF PERIOD WILL INCLUDE SOME MORNING
SHRA/TSRA ROUGHLY BETWEEN 11-15Z FOR CKV AND BNA...AND THEN FOR
ALL TERMINALS AFTER ROUGHLY 19Z. DURING THOSE TIMES...CIGS/VSBYS
MAY LOWER INTO IFR-MVFR BRIEFLY FROM CONVECTION...AND STRONG WINDS
AND HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 19Z.
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD...BUT
MAINLY BETWEEN 14-22Z MONDAY. MAY PULL THE LLWS MENTION OUT OF
THE CKV TAF SINCE WINDS HAVE NOT TAPERED AS MUCH AS EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
338 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.UPDATE...
THE CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING/S THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS HAVE BROKEN UP. THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING/S STORMS IS QUITE APPARENT ON THE
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS IN AN ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE
WINDS...EXTENDING FROM WEST OF COMANCHE TO WEST OF LAMPASAS
SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES NEAR AND
WEST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE AROUND 90 DEGREES. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES
ARE MOSTLY IN THE 80S...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WHERE THE RECOVERY HAS BEEN SLOWER SO TEMPERATURES ARE MID 70S.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION FOR THE REST OF TODAY/S FORECAST IS WHETHER
ANY STORMS WILL DEVELOP BEFORE SUNSET. THE CUMULUS FIELD ALONG THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE
WHERE THE CIN IS LOWEST. THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE RELATIVELY
LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT WILL KEEP 10-20 PERCENT POPS
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED INTO THE EVENING
HOURS SOUTHEAST OF A BOWIE TO COMANCHE LINE. ANY STORMS THAT FORM
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...BUT AS NOTED THE PROBABILITY IS NOT VERY HIGH.
AFTER THIS EVENING...EXPECT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON MOVES NORTHEAST AND THEN
EAST AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE LOW...A COLD FRONT WILL SINK DOWN
THE PLAINS. AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHERN ZONES. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN AREA WIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...AND THEN STARTS TO LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY UNTIL A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO OUR
EAST.
58
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 236 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
1434 CDT...LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS AND LACK OF CU ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOW THAT WACO SHOULD REMAIN STORM FREE. HAVE AMENDED
TAF TO REMOVE VCTS. 84
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...
METROPLEX HAS HAD TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER SINCE THIS
MORNING/S MCS. HI RES MODELS KEEP THE METROPLEX STORM-FREE...BUT
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAP THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ALSO
SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SO ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE NOT
LIKELY...ANY EXTRA HEATING OR WEAKER CAP THAN FORECAST WILL ALLOW
CONVECTION TO FORM. THERE IS GOOD SHEAR AND STRONG
INSTABILITY...SO ANY STORM THAT DOES FORM MAY BECOME SEVERE AND
POSE A HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS WELL. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW
LATE AFTERNOON AS THE TIME WHEN CAP IS WEAKEST. AT THIS TIME WILL
LEAVE METROPLEX TAFS STORM-FREE BUT WILL KEEP WATCHING FOR ANY
CHANGE THAT WOULD MAKE STORM OCCURRENCE MORE POSSIBLE.
AT WACO...BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THROUGH BUT IT DID NOT RAIN AT THE
AIRPORT SO HEATING WILL ALSO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. NAM IS
FORECASTING POSSIBLE STORMS IN THE WACO AREA SO WILL KEEP VCTS
21Z-00Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW LOW STRATUS FOR MORNING MVFR
CEILINGS ARE IN THE TAF AS WELL. 84
&&
.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
THE MCS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF I-35
OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING HAS MOVED TO SOUTHEAST OF AN ATHENS TO
WACO LINE AS OF 1130 AM. THE BIG QUESTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON
IS HOW MUCH WILL THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED ALONG AND NORTH OF A CANTON TO GRANBURY
LINE. WITH FORECAST AFTERNOON CAPES ARE IN THE 2500 J/KG ARE
GREATER RANGE AND DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE
ONLY BOUNDARY THAT IS READILY APPARENT TO SERVE AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM EXTENDS EAST OF A STEPHENVILLE TO CAMERON LINE. IF
THESE STORMS DEVELOP...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS THE EVER-PRESENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING THREAT.
58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY OCCURRING EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35/35E. AT 3 AM...A SMALL LINEAR COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS ABOUT TO CROSS THE RED RIVER WHILE OTHER
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN AND WEST OF THE DFW
METROPLEX. AT THIS TIME...THE STORMS NEAR THE RED RIVER WERE THE
STRONGEST BUT BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE STORMS
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST. HAIL AROUND 1 INCH AND/OR GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THROUGH
MIDDAY...HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA.
THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A CONDITIONAL SEVERE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PART OF THE REGION.
AROUND MIDDAY...SEVERAL OF THE MODELS MOVE A H700 THERMAL RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM WEST
TO EAST. THIS WAA WILL OCCUR UNDER VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHERE H500 TEMPS ARE AROUND -12
DEGREES C. THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT COMBINED WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTS IN MODERATE TO HIGH CAPE VALUES BETWEEN
2500-3500 J/KG. THE WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THE WAA NEAR H700 WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. IN ADDITION...BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS WITH VALUES AROUND 40-45 KTS AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE STEEP BETWEEN THE WARMING TEMPS AT H700 AND THE COLD TEMPS AT
H500.
THE QUESTION IS...WILL WE GET STORMS? A SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE IS
NOT NOTED IN THE MODELS TO PROVIDE LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION. BUT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING LIFT OCCURRING ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH MAY BE TIED TO THE WAA AROUND THE H700 LAYER. SEVERAL
OF THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE PRODUCING QPF OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF
THE THERMAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT
DEVELOPING ANY STORMS IN THE REGION. ANOTHER INTERESTING FEATURE
TO NOTE IS THAT THE RAP...ECMWF...CANADIAN ALL DEVELOP A DRYLINE
OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS IS REALIZED...IT
COULD BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
ALSO...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THIS
MORNING/S CONVECTION.
IN SUMMARY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP SOME WHERE
IN THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON BUT IF STORMS DO DEVELOP THEY HAVE A
CHANCE TO BECOME SEVERE WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT. FOR
NOW...WILL CARRY 20-30 POPS EAST OF A LINE FROM SHERMAN TO FORT
WORTH TO COMANCHE. THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
MESOSCALE FEATURES AND ENVIRONMENT AND ALSO SHORT-TERM AND HI-RES
MODELS FOR POSSIBLY EARLY HINTS THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA IN ANOTHER AREA OF WAA. SPC HAS
HIGHLIGHTED AREAS JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA FOR STRONG
OR SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LEAVE A 20 POP ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
OUR PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BE
PUSHED INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS THE REMNANTS OF SIMON MERGE WITH
A WEAK TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A FRONT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION
ON FRIDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE REGION AND RETREAT NORTH ON SUNDAY...BUT IT WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WILL
CARRY LOW RAIN CHANCES INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS BROAD
TROUGHING SETS UP OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY AND SOUTH WINDS KEEP
ADEQUATE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR PRECIPITATION.
82/JLD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 71 96 73 93 73 / 10 5 5 5 10
WACO, TX 70 93 70 92 70 / 20 5 5 10 10
PARIS, TX 67 91 69 90 68 / 20 10 5 10 10
DENTON, TX 67 97 70 92 71 / 10 5 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 67 95 70 92 70 / 10 5 5 5 10
DALLAS, TX 71 95 74 93 73 / 10 5 5 5 10
TERRELL, TX 70 94 72 93 72 / 20 5 5 5 10
CORSICANA, TX 71 93 72 92 72 / 20 5 5 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 69 93 69 91 70 / 20 5 5 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 66 97 68 92 67 / 10 5 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
84/58
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
236 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.AVIATION...
1434 CDT...LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS AND LACK OF CU ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOW THAT WACO SHOULD REMAIN STORM FREE. HAVE AMENDED
TAF TO REMOVE VCTS. 84
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...
METROPLEX HAS HAD TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER SINCE THIS
MORNING/S MCS. HI RES MODELS KEEP THE METROPLEX STORM-FREE...BUT
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAP THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ALSO
SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SO ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE NOT
LIKELY...ANY EXTRA HEATING OR WEAKER CAP THAN FORECAST WILL ALLOW
CONVECTION TO FORM. THERE IS GOOD SHEAR AND STRONG
INSTABILITY...SO ANY STORM THAT DOES FORM MAY BECOME SEVERE AND
POSE A HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS WELL. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW
LATE AFTERNOON AS THE TIME WHEN CAP IS WEAKEST. AT THIS TIME WILL
LEAVE METROPLEX TAFS STORM-FREE BUT WILL KEEP WATCHING FOR ANY
CHANGE THAT WOULD MAKE STORM OCCURRENCE MORE POSSIBLE.
AT WACO...BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THROUGH BUT IT DID NOT RAIN AT THE
AIRPORT SO HEATING WILL ALSO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. NAM IS
FORECASTING POSSIBLE STORMS IN THE WACO AREA SO WILL KEEP VCTS
21Z-00Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW LOW STRATUS FOR MORNING MVFR
CEILINGS ARE IN THE TAF AS WELL. 84
&&
.UPDATE...
THE MCS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF I-35
OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING HAS MOVED TO SOUTHEAST OF AN ATHENS TO
WACO LINE AS OF 1130 AM. THE BIG QUESTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON
IS HOW MUCH WILL THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED ALONG AND NORTH OF A CANTON TO GRANBURY
LINE. WITH FORECAST AFTERNOON CAPES ARE IN THE 2500 J/KG ARE
GREATER RANGE AND DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE
ONLY BOUNDARY THAT IS READILY APPARENT TO SERVE AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM EXTENDS EAST OF A STEPHENVILLE TO CAMERON LINE. IF
THESE STORMS DEVELOP...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS THE EVER-PRESENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING THREAT.
58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY OCCURRING EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35/35E. AT 3 AM...A SMALL LINEAR COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS ABOUT TO CROSS THE RED RIVER WHILE OTHER
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN AND WEST OF THE DFW
METROPLEX. AT THIS TIME...THE STORMS NEAR THE RED RIVER WERE THE
STRONGEST BUT BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE STORMS
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST. HAIL AROUND 1 INCH AND/OR GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THROUGH
MIDDAY...HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA.
THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A CONDITIONAL SEVERE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PART OF THE REGION.
AROUND MIDDAY...SEVERAL OF THE MODELS MOVE A H700 THERMAL RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM WEST
TO EAST. THIS WAA WILL OCCUR UNDER VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHERE H500 TEMPS ARE AROUND -12
DEGREES C. THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT COMBINED WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTS IN MODERATE TO HIGH CAPE VALUES BETWEEN
2500-3500 J/KG. THE WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THE WAA NEAR H700 WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. IN ADDITION...BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS WITH VALUES AROUND 40-45 KTS AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE STEEP BETWEEN THE WARMING TEMPS AT H700 AND THE COLD TEMPS AT
H500.
THE QUESTION IS...WILL WE GET STORMS? A SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE IS
NOT NOTED IN THE MODELS TO PROVIDE LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION. BUT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING LIFT OCCURRING ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH MAY BE TIED TO THE WAA AROUND THE H700 LAYER. SEVERAL
OF THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE PRODUCING QPF OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF
THE THERMAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT
DEVELOPING ANY STORMS IN THE REGION. ANOTHER INTERESTING FEATURE
TO NOTE IS THAT THE RAP...ECMWF...CANADIAN ALL DEVELOP A DRYLINE
OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS IS REALIZED...IT
COULD BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
ALSO...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THIS
MORNING/S CONVECTION.
IN SUMMARY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP SOME WHERE
IN THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON BUT IF STORMS DO DEVELOP THEY HAVE A
CHANCE TO BECOME SEVERE WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT. FOR
NOW...WILL CARRY 20-30 POPS EAST OF A LINE FROM SHERMAN TO FORT
WORTH TO COMANCHE. THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
MESOSCALE FEATURES AND ENVIRONMENT AND ALSO SHORT-TERM AND HI-RES
MODELS FOR POSSIBLY EARLY HINTS THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA IN ANOTHER AREA OF WAA. SPC HAS
HIGHLIGHTED AREAS JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA FOR STRONG
OR SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LEAVE A 20 POP ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
OUR PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BE
PUSHED INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS THE REMNANTS OF SIMON MERGE WITH
A WEAK TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A FRONT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION
ON FRIDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE REGION AND RETREAT NORTH ON SUNDAY...BUT IT WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WILL
CARRY LOW RAIN CHANCES INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS BROAD
TROUGHING SETS UP OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY AND SOUTH WINDS KEEP
ADEQUATE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR PRECIPITATION.
82/JLD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 72 95 73 92 71 / 10 10 5 10 10
WACO, TX 70 93 70 91 70 / 10 10 5 10 10
PARIS, TX 68 92 69 88 68 / 20 10 5 10 10
DENTON, TX 69 94 70 92 69 / 10 5 5 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 69 94 69 91 69 / 20 10 5 10 10
DALLAS, TX 73 95 73 92 72 / 10 10 5 10 10
TERRELL, TX 72 93 72 91 72 / 20 10 5 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 70 93 71 91 71 / 20 10 5 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 69 93 69 91 69 / 10 10 5 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 67 96 69 93 68 / 10 5 5 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1231 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.AVIATION...
A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND OVER THE
HOUSTON CWA. LATEST AREA RADAR IMAGES SHOW AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
PUSHING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND APPROACHING THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. ACCORDING TO THE ETA TOOL...SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL ARRIVE TO THE AUSTIN
AREA AROUND 1830Z FOR A QUICK WIND SHIFT. SEA-BREEZE
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY INTERACT WITH THIS OUTFLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON
FOR A NEW LINE OF STORMS TO FORM MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
(NOT EXPECTING FOR THIS NEW LINE OF STORMS TO HAVE AN IMPACT TO
THE I-35 SITES). OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS ALONG THE I-35 TERMINALS AROUND 09Z TO
17Z TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD ON
TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
UPDATE...MCS DROPPING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING.
CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING AND LIGHTNING DECREASING INDICATING A
WEAKENING TREND. HI RES HRRR AND 4KM CSU WRF WERE CLOSEST IN
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MCS. BOTH ARE INDICATING ISOLATED TO LOW
END SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
SOUTHEAST CWA EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL INTERACTION FROM
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE WEAKENING MCS. VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE TO POPS FOR TODAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
15Z-16Z THEN BECOMING VFR. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY NEAR 10 KNOTS.
TONIGHT AGAIN EXPECT TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG
THE ESCARPMENT. SIMULATED WRF IS INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WESTERN PORTIONS 07Z-09Z THEN FURTHER EAST 10Z-12Z. THINK THE
I-35 SITES WILL SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP 07Z-08Z THEN SPREAD INTO
KDRT AROUND 11Z. COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS
MORNING WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY EAST OF
I-35. FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE ISOLATED
NATURE AND MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF I-35. THIS
CONVECTION WILL BE HEAT DRIVEN AND WOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A 20 TO 30 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET HAS ALLOWED FOR A HIGHER COVERAGE OF
OVERNIGHT STRATUS TONIGHT. GIVEN THE STRATUS...SOUTH WINDS AROUND
10 MPH AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE RUNNING
ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. THE 00Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOWED A VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA.
THE UPPER LOW EXTENDS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH...ALLOWING NORTHWEST FLOW
AT 500 MB ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BUT WESTERLIES ARE PREVAILING OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW HAS SPARKED
OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY IS
PUSHING SOUTH...BUT WILL STEER MORE SOUTHEAST AS THE STORMS
ENCOUNTER THE WESTERLIES. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A DIRECT IMPACT
FROM THIS ACTIVITY...BUT THIS DOES SHOW US THAT THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
RECOVERED FROM THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT AND THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
LIFT WILL STAY WELL EAST OF THE AREA TODAY BUT HIGH-RES MODELS ARE
SHOWING ISOLATED ACTIVITY...MAINLY EAST OF I-35. ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH PEAK HEATING AND SHOULD
WEAKEN NEAR SUNSET. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA.
TOMORROW...NOW TROPICAL STORM SIMON WILL BE MOVING CLOSER TO BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND AS IT DOES...THE SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. 850 TEMPS WILL RESPOND AND
WARM INTO THE 18-21C RANGE. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST OF
THE WEEK...WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S OR ABOUT 8-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WITH SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE...NO RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE MAIN DISCUSSION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN WHAT WILL
ULTIMATELY HAPPEN WITH THE REMNANTS OF SIMON. OUR THINKING HAS
SEEMED TO COME TO FRUITION WITH THE GFS BACKING OFF ON THE QUICKER
MOVEMENT AND COLD FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID-WEEK. THE 00Z GFS HAS COME INTO
MORE OF AN AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF/CANADIAN. THROUGH FRIDAY...THE
REMNANT UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND NEAR COLORADO. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA TO SHIFT EAST. ENOUGH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES TO ALLOW FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY BUT SHOULD STALL
NORTH OF OUR CWA. WILL CARRY POPS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED ACTIVITY WITH A
BOUNDARY NEARING THE AREA. BY SATURDAY THE UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH SIMON WILL FINALLY FLATTEN WITH ZONAL FLOW RETURNING ALOFT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO SURGE NORTHWARD WITH POPS ONLY REMAINING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
EAST ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS THEN DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING
OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY/MONDAY. THE ECMWF
HAS THE LOW MOVING WELL SOUTH OF THE GFS PATH AND THEREFORE THE
ECMWF IS FORECASTING OUR NEXT FRONT JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WHILE THE GFS PREVAILS SOUTHERLY FLOW.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 72 94 73 92 73 / - 0 0 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 69 94 70 92 70 / - 0 0 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 71 93 71 92 72 / - 0 0 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 70 92 71 88 71 / 0 0 0 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 68 95 72 91 73 / - 0 - 10 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 71 92 72 90 72 / - 0 0 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 93 71 91 71 / - 0 - 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 71 93 71 92 71 / - 0 0 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 91 73 90 73 / 10 0 - 20 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 92 73 90 74 / - 0 0 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 94 73 92 74 / - 0 0 10 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1124 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.UPDATE...MCS DROPPING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING.
CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING AND LIGHTNING DECREASING INDICATING A
WEAKENING TREND. HI RES HRRR AND 4KM CSU WRF WERE CLOSEST IN
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MCS. BOTH ARE INDICATING ISOLATED TO LOW
END SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
SOUTHEAST CWA EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL INTERACTION FROM
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE WEAKENING MCS. VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE TO POPS FOR TODAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
15Z-16Z THEN BECOMING VFR. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY NEAR 10 KNOTS.
TONIGHT AGAIN EXPECT TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG
THE ESCARPMENT. SIMULATED WRF IS INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WESTERN PORTIONS 07Z-09Z THEN FURTHER EAST 10Z-12Z. THINK THE
I-35 SITES WILL SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP 07Z-08Z THEN SPREAD INTO
KDRT AROUND 11Z. COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS
MORNING WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY EAST OF
I-35. FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE ISOLATED
NATURE AND MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF I-35. THIS
CONVECTION WILL BE HEAT DRIVEN AND WOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A 20 TO 30 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET HAS ALLOWED FOR A HIGHER COVERAGE OF
OVERNIGHT STRATUS TONIGHT. GIVEN THE STRATUS...SOUTH WINDS AROUND
10 MPH AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE RUNNING
ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. THE 00Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOWED A VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA.
THE UPPER LOW EXTENDS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH...ALLOWING NORTHWEST FLOW
AT 500 MB ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BUT WESTERLIES ARE PREVAILING OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW HAS SPARKED
OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY IS
PUSHING SOUTH...BUT WILL STEER MORE SOUTHEAST AS THE STORMS
ENCOUNTER THE WESTERLIES. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A DIRECT IMPACT
FROM THIS ACTIVITY...BUT THIS DOES SHOW US THAT THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
RECOVERED FROM THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT AND THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
LIFT WILL STAY WELL EAST OF THE AREA TODAY BUT HIGH-RES MODELS ARE
SHOWING ISOLATED ACTIVITY...MAINLY EAST OF I-35. ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH PEAK HEATING AND SHOULD
WEAKEN NEAR SUNSET. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA.
TOMORROW...NOW TROPICAL STORM SIMON WILL BE MOVING CLOSER TO BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND AS IT DOES...THE SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. 850 TEMPS WILL RESPOND AND
WARM INTO THE 18-21C RANGE. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST OF
THE WEEK...WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S OR ABOUT 8-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WITH SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE...NO RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE MAIN DISCUSSION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN WHAT WILL
ULTIMATELY HAPPEN WITH THE REMNANTS OF SIMON. OUR THINKING HAS
SEEMED TO COME TO FRUITION WITH THE GFS BACKING OFF ON THE QUICKER
MOVEMENT AND COLD FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID-WEEK. THE 00Z GFS HAS COME INTO
MORE OF AN AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF/CANADIAN. THROUGH FRIDAY...THE
REMNANT UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND NEAR COLORADO. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA TO SHIFT EAST. ENOUGH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES TO ALLOW FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY BUT SHOULD STALL
NORTH OF OUR CWA. WILL CARRY POPS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED ACTIVITY WITH A
BOUNDARY NEARING THE AREA. BY SATURDAY THE UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH SIMON WILL FINALLY FLATTEN WITH ZONAL FLOW RETURNING ALOFT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO SURGE NORTHWARD WITH POPS ONLY REMAINING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
EAST ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS THEN DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING
OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY/MONDAY. THE ECMWF
HAS THE LOW MOVING WELL SOUTH OF THE GFS PATH AND THEREFORE THE
ECMWF IS FORECASTING OUR NEXT FRONT JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WHILE THE GFS PREVAILS SOUTHERLY FLOW.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 90 72 94 73 92 / 20 - 0 0 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 90 69 94 70 92 / 20 - 0 0 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 90 71 93 71 92 / 10 - 0 0 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 88 70 92 71 88 / 10 0 0 0 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 90 68 95 72 91 / - - 0 - 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 88 71 92 72 90 / 20 - 0 0 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 89 71 93 71 91 / 10 - 0 - 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 90 71 93 71 92 / 20 - 0 0 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 88 73 91 73 90 / 40 10 0 - 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 90 74 92 73 90 / 10 - 0 0 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 90 73 94 73 92 / 10 - 0 0 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1146 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014
.AVIATION...
A COMPLEX OF STORMS CURRENTLY ORGANIZING ACROSS OKLAHOMA WILL BE
THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN OVERNIGHT. MODELS...INCLUDING
HI RES SOLUTIONS...HAVE BEEN HAVING A TOUGH TIME SHOWING ANY RUN
TO RUN CONTINUITY. OUR CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE OKLAHOMA
CONVECTION WILL REACH THE RED RIVER COUNTIES BETWEEN 06 AND 07Z AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED IN NATURE AND MAY WEAKEN SOME AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SINCE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. WE WILL MAINTAIN A VCTS AT THE METROPLEX
AIRPORTS FROM 09 TO 12Z AND IN WACO FROM 11 TO 15Z.
ANOTHER AVIATION CONCERN OVERNIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WILL BE MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY. KFWS VAD SHOWS A 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET IN
PLACE AND MVFR CEILINGS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AROUND THE BALCONES
ESCARPMENT. WE EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO REACH WACO BETWEEN 08 AND
09Z AND THE METROPLEX TAF SITES SHORTLY AFTER THAT. THE LOW
CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY
CLEAR THE CEILINGS OUT EARLIER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AT SPEEDS BETWEEN
7 AND 13 KNOTS ALONG WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY.
79
&&
.UPDATE...
DISPARITY IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
CONTINUES WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. THE 00Z NAM IS COMPLETELY
DRY...BUT SINCE IT FAILS TO GENERATE THE ACTIVITY ALREADY ONGOING
IN OKLAHOMA...IT IS LIKELY FAILING TO RESOLVE THE STRENGTH OF THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL
FRONTAL FORCING...WHICH WILL BE ABSENT IN NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT. THE
00Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWS A CAPPING INVERSION THAT ADDITIONAL WARM
ADVECTION...AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...SHOULD ONLY STRENGTHEN.
EVEN SO...THE INITIATION OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER FORCING APPROACHES. WITHOUT
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WHICH IS UNLIKELY...ANY COLD POOL WILL
LIKELY BE INSUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SURFACE PARCELS TO JOIN THE
CONVECTIVE PARTY. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST RAP SUGGESTS OUTFLOW FROM
THE STORMS TO OUR NORTH MAY REACH THE RED RIVER BY DAYBREAK...THE
IMPULSE WILL HAVE PASSED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THEN.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014/
IT HAS BEEN A PLEASANTLY WARM FALL AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH HAVE
HELPED BRING 60 DEGREE DEW POINTS UP THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO
THE METROPLEX. THE AREA OF STRATUS THAT MOVED INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
NORTHEAST INTO THE CORSICANA AREA HAD SCATTERED OUT AS OF MID
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAD WARMED INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
EVENING.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
/TEXAS TECH WRF AND HRRR/ INDICATED THAT STORMS WILL FORM ACROSS
THE AREA BETWEEN WICHITA FALLS AND ABILENE BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND
THESE STORMS WOULD THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
THE NAM...GFS...CMC...SREF AND ECMWF DIFFER IN WHERE THE STORMS
WILL DEVELOP BUT SHOW A SIMILAR SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF WHAT
EVER DEVELOPS. GIVEN THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SOME 1 TO 1.5
INCH HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN ZONES
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO HAVE LEFT SOME 20 PERCENT POPS
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.
AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...WE WILL
BE DRY WITH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
WE CONTINUE TO HAVE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. THE GFS BRING THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
SIMON NORTHEAST ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE MEXICAN STATE OF
SONORA DURING THE 48 TO 72 HOUR PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE LOW THAT WILL FORM OVER
ARIZONA... WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA ACROSS NEW
MEXICO THEN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO OKLAHOMA.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE NORTHWESTERN
ZONES BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WOULD THEN SPREAD
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN
FORECASTED TO SINK DOWN THE PLAINS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ZONE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE
RAIN IS FORECAST TO END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER WITH THE ONSET AND ENDING OF THE RAIN
AND IS ALSO WETTER THAN THE ECMWF.
THE ECMWF BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF SIMON AND THE MID-LATITUDE LOW
FARTHER NORTH. THIS RESULTS IN RAIN CHANCES NOT STARTING UNTIL
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES WITH RAIN CHANCES
SPREADING SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST....RAIN
CHANCES END FROM SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
HAVE CONTINUED TO GO ALONG WITH A COMPROMISE BLEND THAT LEANS
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS.
58
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 66 87 72 93 73 / 40 10 10 5 5
WACO, TX 66 88 71 92 71 / 30 20 10 5 5
PARIS, TX 62 84 67 88 68 / 30 20 20 10 5
DENTON, TX 63 88 69 93 71 / 40 10 10 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 62 86 69 92 69 / 30 10 20 5 5
DALLAS, TX 67 87 72 92 73 / 40 10 10 5 5
TERRELL, TX 65 86 71 93 72 / 40 20 10 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 66 86 71 91 72 / 30 20 10 10 5
TEMPLE, TX 67 88 70 92 70 / 20 20 10 5 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 63 89 67 94 69 / 40 10 10 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
79/25
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
226 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 00Z
WITH SHORT WAVE TONIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A VERY LIGHT SHOWER OR
SPRINKLES BUT THE STRONGER 700 MB OMEGA STAYS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...REFLECTED IN THE MAJORITY OF THE
MODEL QPF FIELD...SO NOTHING MEASURABLE EXPECTED. CLOUDS AND WEAK
WARM ADVECTION WILL HOLD LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S.
DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A MID DECK IN THE SOUTHWEST...
BUT SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S IN THE SOUTH HALF...WITH
AROUND 60 READINGS INT EH NORTH HALF OF THE CWA GIVEN MIXING UP TO
FORECAST 925 MB TEMPERATURES.
.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS WISCONSIN TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE STRONG JET MAX WHICH WAS UPSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS
PUSHES EAST ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WEAK
MAINLY DOWNWARD MOTION AT 700 MB WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER BELOW A DEVELOPING ISOTHERMAL
LAYER AROUND 5 THSD FT TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE RISING TO 7 THSD FT
WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH A RESULTING
INVERSION. MAIN CONCERN IS WITH CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS POTENTIAL
WITH THE NARROW MOIST LAYER. NAM MOS SHOWING CLEARING SKIES
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS WEDNESDAY. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
A POTENTIAL OF A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE WEST/NORTHWEST AS THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS JAMES BAY CANADA. SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET MAX LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER
DIVERGENCE. HOWEVER 700 MB UPWARD MOTION IS ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.
THE GFS AND NAM ARE DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ALTHOUGH THE 00Z
ECMWF STILL BRINGS SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. PREFER THE DRIER MORE SOUTH
MODELS. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...
.THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
THE MODELS ARE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER AND THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED
TOWARD THE GFS IN A WEAKER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST U.S.
FRIDAY THAT REACHES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.
THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS/DGEX WITH KEEPING THE HIGH
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BE A GOOD SETUP
FOR LATE NIGHT FROST BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS A LITTLE MORE 850 MB RH WHICH COULD KEEP
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS INTO THE NORTHEAST AREAS TOWARD
FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN.
.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE MODELS BEGIN TO FORM AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THE 00Z ECMWF LIFTS THE SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO THE TROUGH...WITH THE GFS TAKING
THIS EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH. THE
00Z ECMWF IS STRONGER.
THE SURFACE PATTERNS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF HAVING
A DOUBLE STRUCTURE TO THE LOW AND IS FASTER WITH THE
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY. BY MONDAY EVENING THE ECMWF HAS AN OCCLUDED
LOW IN THE LAKE SUPERIOR VICINITY WITH THE GFS AT A SIMILAR
LOCATION...BUT WITH THE LOW STILL IN THE CYCLOGENISIS PROCESS.
THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOW TRENDING SLOWER WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERN LOW.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
BACK EDGE OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS BETWEEN 4500 AND
5000 FT NEARING KMSN AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AS IT
CLEARS TO THE EAST BY 00Z. SURFACE WINDS...WHICH HAVE BEEN GUSTING
TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL ALSO DIMINISH.
THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS SET UP CONDITIONS FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING IN THE WEST AND SPREADING EAST AROUND
06Z...AND LINGERING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS RAP AND NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS BETWEEN 600 FT AND 2K FT OF THE
SURFACE INCREASE TO 34-36 KTS BETWEEN 05Z AND 14Z AS THE WAVE MOVES
IN SO WILL ADD LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO FORECAST...STARTING AND
ENDING EARLIER AT KMSN VERSUS THE EASTERN SITES.
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER 00Z WITH SHORT WAVE TONIGHT BRINGS
A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE BUT MOST OF THE
BETTER FORCING STAYS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF TAF
LOCATIONS...SO WILL LEAVE OUT.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS... THOUGH
A FEW GUSTS MAY REACH CRITERIA...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE FREQUENT
ENOUGH FOR A HEADLINE. THE OFFSHORE FETCH WILL KEEP THE WAVES AT
OR BELOW 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHER WAVES TOWARD OPEN WATER.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HENTZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1153 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.UPDATE...
THICK CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH. DIURNAL CUMULUS HAVE POPPED UP BEHIND
THE WAVE BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LOW-LEVEL RH FORECASTS SHOW
THIS SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN SCATTERED BY MID-AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL OFFSET SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT BUT WILL BUMP UP HIGHS
A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
SOLID VFR CLOUD DECK HAS CLEARED EASTERN TAF SITES WITH SURFACE
TROUGH. SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 FT
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL SEE A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER 00Z WITH SHORT WAVE TONIGHT BRINGS
A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE BUT MOST OF THE
BETTER FORCING STAYS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF TAF
LOCATIONS. RAP AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS BETWEEN 600 FT
AND 2K FT OF THE SURFACE INCREASE TO 34-36 KTS BETWEEN 05Z AND 14Z
AS THE WAVE MOVES IN SO WILL ADD LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO
FORECAST...STARTING AND ENDING EARLIER AT KMSN VERSUS THE EASTERN
SITES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
KEPT SOME FROST IN THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...AS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME CLEARING.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL KEEP THINGS MILDER ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.
PER RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS...KEPT SOME LOW POPS
IN SOUTHEAST FOR THE MORNING HOURS. WOULD NOT EXPECT MORE THAN A
BRIEF SHOWERS OR A FEW SPRINKLES. IT SHOULD BE DRY THEN IN THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY...A BIT MILDER THAN YESTERDAY
THOUGH.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
PERSISTENT CANADIAN UPPER LOW NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE WITH THE NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW. ONE LAST SHORTWAVE OF
NOTE PROGGD TO SWEEP THOUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE ALL
SHOWING DRY SOLUTIONS AND WILL GO THAT ROUTE AS WELL. BUFKIT SHOWS
VERY SHALLOW INSTABILITY/LIMITED CAPE. ALONG WITH THIS IS THE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SO WILL GO WITH
MORE CLOUD COVER BUT KEEP THE DRY LOOK. MID DAY TROUGH PASSAGE
THOUGH BETTER 925/850 COLD ADVECTION HOLDS OFF UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING LESS CYCLONIC AS CANADIAN VORTEX STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD
WITH TIME. SO WHILE COLD ADVECTION IS STRONGEST TUESDAY NIGHT
THERE IS MODIFICATION IN THE THERMAL PATTERN WEDNESDAY AS THE
1000-500 MILLIBAR HEIGHTS MODIFY SOMEWHAT WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
EASING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WEAK UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX WITH LOW PRESSURE
STAYING WELL SOUTH. COMBO OF PROXIMITY OF NRN FRINGE OF
ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED PRECIP WITH THE LOW AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER FEATURES...WILL MAINTAIN THE SMALL POPS THIS PERIOD...MAINLY
IN THE SW CWA WED NGT AND JUST THE FAR SOUTH ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
DECENT CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
DOMINATING THIS PERIOD. COLD NIGHTS EXPECTED WITH THESE
CONDITIONS. SOME FROST POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT. LOOKS A BIT BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHTER WIND REGIME
OFF THE DECK. PER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY GRID INCLUSION BUT RETAIN GOING WORDING IN THE HWO.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE HIGH WILL BE WELL EAST. UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF AN ADVANCING TROUGH. SOME TIMING DETAILS YET TO WORK OUT THOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED TO HELP GENERATE SOME RAIN
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. BEST DYNAMICS PROGGD TO ARRIVE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND UPPER DCVA ARRIVE.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...WITH A LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT.
MARINE...WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THOUGH...AND THE OFFSHORE NATURE OF THE WINDS WILL KEEP THE WAVES ON
THE LOWER END.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REM
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
346 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL HEAVY SHOWERS...WITH A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE TODAY AND THURSDAY.
WHILE OVERALL COOL AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...DREARY CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A LOW PASSES SOUTH
OF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. MILDER CONDITIONS RETURN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IT/S A TALE OF TWO FOCI FOR LIFT THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FIRST...IS A VIGOROUS UPPER LVL VORT MAX THAT WILL BE MOVING
CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE NY/PA BORDER THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH AN
ATTENDANT WEAKENED OCCLUSION. THIS HAS BEEN THE TRIGGER FORE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND BANDS OF MODERATE RAINFALL WHICH ARE
CURRENTLY EFFECTING ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND...AND WHICH WILL
CONTINUE A SLOW E-NE PROGRESSION AS THE SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH
INTO THE MORNING. THE SECOND...IS A NEAR STACKED JET. THE LLJ
FEATURE /VAD WIND PROFILES ALREADY SHOWING 50 KT AT 2KFT ON THE
OKX RADAR/ HAS BEEN CONTINUALLY GENERATING CONVECTION ALONG ITS
NOSE JUST OFFSHORE BETWEEN NJ AND LOCATED IN THE RIGHT-EQUATORWARD
REGION OF THE UPPER LVL JET SIGNALING PLENTY OF VENTING ALOFT.
THEREFORE...WILL HAVE TO WATCH BOTH AREAS OF RAINFALL THROUGH THIS
MORNING AS MESOSCALE MODELS /AND LOCAL LAPS CONFIRMS/ POCKET OF
700 AND 1000 J/KG OF SB AND MU CAPE RESPECTIVELY IN A POCKET FROM
THE CONVECTION S OF LONG ISLAND INTO ERN CT/RI AND SE MA. IN
FACT...MODEST CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEEN TRIGGERED IN
VICINITY OF THE OFFICE OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. IN THIS SAME
REGION...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SHEAR PROFILES CONTINUE TO INDICATE
200-300 M2/S2 OF SR HELICITY. POPS ARE ADJUSTED TOWARD LATEST
MESO-SCALE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE WRF AND HRRR WHICH ARE DOING A
FAIR JOB AT HANDLING THE QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES.
GIVEN ALL OF THIS...THE THREAT REMAINS THE SAME THIS
MORNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS. STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN MIXING DOWN WITH
THIS RAINFALL AS WELL AS THE LLJ BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...AND A BRIEF TORNADO/WATERSPOUT IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHERE
INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. IN FACT SRN NJ OFFICE HAS ALREADY
ISSUED A TOR THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE TIMING...EXPECT THIS THREAT
TO MOVE THROUGH MAINLY 09Z-013Z OR SO.
AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH AND DRY SLOT IS ALLOWED TO TAKE
OVER ALOFT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
RESURGENCE IN SW-W WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20-30 MPH AT TIMES BUT
EXPECT RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES SAVE FOR SOME COLD ADVECTIVE CU
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL STILL BE MILD DESPITE THIS COLD
ADVECTION AS H85 TEMPS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO FALL FOLLOWING THE
COLD FROPA. THEREFORE...EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOW-MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO SLOWLY NOSE IN FROM THE SW. HOWEVER AS ROBUST
LOW PRES CONTINUES TO SLIDE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...EXPECT
SOME SOME LEFTOVER ALTO-CU AND CI...AS WELL AS A MODERATE PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL AS A COLDER AIRMASS MOVES IN...BUT THE FLOW/CLOUDS WILL
PREVENT FULL DECOUPLING. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ARE LIKELY TO
PREVAIL...AND EVEN IF SOME TEMPS APPROACH THE MID-UPPER 30S THE
LEFTOVER LIGHT BREEZE WILL MITIGATE ANY POTENTIAL FROST
DEVELOPMENT.
THU...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO MOVE SLIGHTLY TO THE E. THEREFORE...EXPECT
MAINLY DRY WX ONCE AGAIN. PRES GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE AS WELL
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH IN...SO EXPECT ANOTHER RELATIVELY
BREEZY DAY WITH WIND GUSTS 20-25 MPH AT TIMES. H85 TEMPS +2 TO +4C
SHOULD BE TAPPED...BUT THIS WOULD ONLY SUGGEST HIGHS THE LOW-MID
60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...
- COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS SURROUND A COASTAL LOW ANTICIPATED AROUND
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE
REGION
- MILD CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO A SWEEPING COLD FRONT AND
ACTIVE WEATHER AROUND MIDWEEK
*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...
CONTINUED ENSEMBLE MEMBER AGREEMENT OF A STRONGLY -AO AND MODESTLY
-NAO PARENT TO A +PNA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AMPLIFIED ANOMALOUS AND
BLOCKY PATTERN RESULTS IN A GENERALIZED PATTERN OF W CONUS RIDGING
WITH CONSEQUENTIAL DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING.
EVALUATING PRESENT SYNOPTICS...PRESENT CENTRAL CANADA H5 CLOSED LOW
IS SUBSEQUENTLY HELD UP ACROSS THE E MARITIMES BY THE BEGINNING OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH THE FLAT-BASE OF WHICH PACIFIC-ORIGIN
IMPULSES MIGRATE WITH THE MARITIME FLOW. OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS OF
PERIODS OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER SURROUND AN ANTICIPATED COASTAL LOW
CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG A STALLED FRONT S OF NEW ENGLAND.
DISCREPANCIES ABOUND AMONG DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS IN HANDLING
N- AND S-STREAM ENERGY...AS TO WHETHER AND HOW THEY INTERACT TOWARDS
THE INVOCATION OF THE COASTAL LOW...NEVERTHELESS FEEL DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION ACROSS DECENT BAROCLINICITY SHOULD RESULT IN A
MODEST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE S-COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND...SO EXPECT DULL DREARY WET WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
EARLY-HALF OF SATURDAY. AMOUNTS COULD BE CONSIDERABLE DEPENDENT ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND USURPING OF DECENT MOISTURE FROM THE SW.
ONCE AGAIN...JUST THE SLIGHTEST WOBBLE OF THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF
THE LOW MAKES A CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCE CONCERNING BOTH AMOUNTS AND
N-EDGE OF ANTICIPATED RAIN SHIELD.
SIGNALS OF ANOMALOUS CENTRAL CONUS TROUGHING CONTINUE FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AMPLIFIED RIDGING DOWNSTREAM YIELDS AN ENHANCEMENT OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL HIGH OFF THE SE-CONUS. INITIAL SURGE OF WARM-MOIST AIR N
PARENT WITH A WARM-FRONTAL BOUNDARY YIELDS WET-WEATHER CHANCES
CENTERED AROUND MONDAY. MILD-HUMID CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED WITH THE
WARM-SECTOR INTO MIDWEEK PRIOR TO THE MAIN COLD FRONT AND LIKELY
ACTIVE WEATHER ALONG AND AHEAD. NO CERTAINTY ON TIMING AND OUTCOMES
AS DESCRIBED ABOVE WHICH WERE DERIVED FROM 07.12Z ECMWF/ECENS...
THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD WITHIN THE 50-INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS
THAT COMPRISE THE ECENS. BUT CERTAIN EARLY-WEEK WARM WEATHER WILL BE
QUITE THE FLOP FROM THE COOLER WEATHER ANTICIPATED LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THE THE WEEKEND.
FAVOR THE SLOWER-AMPLIFIED ECMWF AND ECENS SOLUTIONS AS AGREED UPON
BY WPC WHICH HAVE BEEN NOTED TO HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AS OF LATE. AM
STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON THE LESS-AMPLIFIED PATTERN ADVERTISED BY THE
GFS/GEFS...THOUGH ITS TELECONNECTION FORECASTS HAVE BEEN POOR AS OF
LATE...FORECASTING A MAINLY POSITIVE TO NEAR-NEUTRAL AO/NAO TREND
INTO EARLY OCTOBER JUST LAST WEEK WHEN IT HAS BEEN ANYTHING BUT. AN
OVERALL MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST...WITH GREATEST CONFIDENCE
CENTERED ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...
THROUGH 15Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.
BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z FROM SW
TO NE. PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
ARE LIKELY AS THIS BAND OF SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. ALSO...WINDS MAY
GUST OVER 30 KT AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN HEAVIER RAIN OR ANY
T-STORMS.
AFTER 15Z TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR EVERYWHERE 15Z THROUGH MID DAY.
W-SW WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OF 25-30 KT
LIKELY...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
TOMORROW...
MAINLY VFR. W WIND GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.
KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
TIMING.
KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
TIMING.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BREEZY W-
WINDS.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MIX OF MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS. WORST ALONG THE S-COAST IN PROXIMITY TO AN OFFSHORE
COASTAL LOW. WINDS TURNING E PRIOR TO BACKING W/NW. BREEZIEST OF
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTLINES.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NE
FLOW VEERS E/SE...BECOMING VRB AT TIMES. CONCERN OVER IFR-LIFR FOG
IMPACTS FOR INTERIOR TERMINALS DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS TOWARDS
MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20-25 KT THIS
MORNING...EXCEPT IN AREAS OF SHOWERS WHERE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY
APPROACH GALE FORCE AT TIMES. THE SHOWERS CLEAR THE WATERS
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W-SW BY THE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TO GUST 25-30 KT AT TIMES INTO
TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KT DURING THE DAY ON THU.
THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR WINDS ALONE.
HOWEVER...BUILDING SWELLS ARE LIKELY AS WELL...REACHING 5-8 FT ON
THE OCEAN WATERS. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE
LATER HALF OF THE DAY ON THU.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WHILE WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY OUT OF THE W WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS...WAVES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET. GOOD BOATING WEATHER.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COASTAL LOW SWEEPS
W-E S OF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. WINDS TURNING OUT OF THE E THEN
BACKING N/NW WITH LOW PASSAGE. GUSTS REMAINING BELOW 20 KTS WITH THE
PRESENT FORECAST WHILE SEAS REMAIN JUST BELOW 5 FEET.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. N/NE FLOW
VEERS E/SE AS HIGH PRESSURE SWEEPS THE NE-CONUS. SEAS FORECAST TO
REMAIN BELOW 5-FEET. GOOD BOATING WEATHER.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
MORNING/S HIGH TIDE ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 7 AND 9 AM ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES AS SURGE
VALUES OF 0.5-1.0 FEET ARE LIKELY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BUILDING
SWELLS OFFSHORE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ020.
NH...NONE.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ002-
004>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DOODY/SIPPRELL
MARINE...DOODY/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
320 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS
07Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
ARRIVING IN A RIDGED PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BC COASTLINE
BEFORE DIVING BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE
TROUGHING COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW CAN BE SEEN CLEARLY BY ITS
POST PASSAGE DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IN WV IMAGERY PIVOTING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES AND FORCING A SWATH OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
ITS AXIS. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...WE FIND OUR REGION AT THE BASE OF
THIS LONGWAVE EASTERN TROUGH WITHIN A ZONE OF UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS
BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE EAST OF THE FL PENINSULA...AND ANOTHER
DEFINED RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...THIS WESTERN GULF RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD...ERODING THE
CURRENT WEAKNESS IN THE PATTERN AND BECOMING THE DOMINANT PLAYER IN
OUR FORECAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OFF THE GA/NE FLORIDA COAST
BACK ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR TO OUR NORTH. THIS POSITION PUTS OUR
FORECAST AREA WITHIN A LIGHT EASTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW. REGIONAL RADARS
SHOW QUIET CONDITIONS OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
TODAY...
LONGWAVE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY EARLY IN THE DAY
RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. WEAKNESS IN
THE PATTERN MENTIONED ABOVE THAT WAS OVER OUR REGION DURING TUESDAY
AND LIKELY HELPED THE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE SCT STORMS LOOKS TO
MIGRATE A BIT TO THE WEST TO A POSITION MORE OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR NORTH SHOULD STAY PUT AND
KEEP A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE GRADIENT IS
ON THE WEAK SIDE...SO SHOULD SEE A FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION
DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST...OR AT LEAST A SLACKENING OF THE WINDS NEAR
THE COAST/COASTAL WATERS. EITHER WAY...A ZONE OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE/FOCUS IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD SET UP ALONG THE I-75
CORRIDOR. DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE QUITE THE DEGREE OF SCT STORMS
OBSERVED ON TUESDAY...BUT CAN NOT REMOVE RAIN CHANCES FROM THE
FORECAST EITHER AFTER EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. COLUMN MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE CERTAINLY MOST FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION
FROM AROUND BROOKSVILLE AREA SOUTHWARD...WITH THE GFS/NAM BOTH
SHOWING A MUCH DEEPER LAYER OF DRY AIR ALOFT FOR CITRUS/LEVY
COUNTIES LATER TODAY. BASED ON EVERYTHING ABOVE WILL MENTION SCT
POPS FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND
ISOLATED/WDLY SCT POPS NORTHWARD TO AROUND CRYSTAL RIVER...AND ALSO
ACROSS THE INTERIOR ZONES WHERE LOW LEVEL FOCUS WILL NOT BE ENHANCED
BY THE SEA-BREEZE. WE ARE STARTING TO GET TO THAT TIME OF YEAR WHERE
WE START TO NEED A LITTLE BIT OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT TO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEA-BREEZE STORMS. GOING TO GET HARDER AND HARDER IN
THE COMING FEW WEEKS FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO GENERATE THIS TYPE OF
PULSE CONVECTION ON A PURELY THERMODYNAMIC BASIS. IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES...SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH UP TO WITHIN A
DEGREE OR 2 EITHER SIDE OF 90 AT MOST LOCATIONS.
TONIGHT...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE OVER OUR REGION WHILE AT THE
SURFACE...RIDGING TO OUR NORTH IS REINFORCED BY CONTINENTAL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS. ANY LINGERING
EVENING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF SUNSET AND
RESULT IN A MOSTLY DRY AND QUIET NIGHT IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER.
LOW TEMPERATURES APPEAR SEASONABLE WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH OF
TAMPA BAY...AND MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70 FURTHER SOUTH.
THURSDAY...
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND EASTERN GULF. GOOD AGREEMENT IN AN ENHANCEMENT/EXPANSION OF THE
DRY AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. X-SECTION / TIME HEIGHT FORECASTS DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION...AS A RESULT OF THESE UNFAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT. IF WE ARE GOING TO SEE ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS...WHERE CURRENT
GFS FORECAST DOES NOT BRING IN THE DRIEST AIR ALOFT UNTIL THE
EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY LOOK TO AGAIN BE A BIT
ABOVE AVERAGE WITH MANY LOCATIONS REACHING WITHIN A DEGREE OR 2 OF
90.
HAVE A GREAT WEDNESDAY EVERYONE!
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS GLOBAL MODELS
REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 EACH
DAY. DRY AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESULT
IN VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO PULL AWAY ON
SUNDAY...BUT STILL EXPECTING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
STORMS...AND MAINLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND INTERIOR ZONES.
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE TAKING PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE DIGS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NATIONS MID-SECTION
RESULTING IN THE WEAKENING OF OUR DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. CONFIDENCE IN THE SECOND PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS
MUCH LOWER AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH BOTH THE DEPTH AND TIMING OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE ECMWF AND BRING HIGHER MOISTURE IN MORE RAPIDLY ON MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
ITS TOO EARLY TO SAY FOR SURE HOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL EVOLVE.
THE GFS SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. THE ECMWF HAS A DEEPER
TROUGH WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
A POTENTIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST
WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND SHOW BEST RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR
NORTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SOME DRYING...BUT VERY LITTLE
COOLING FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PATCHY MVFR
FOG AS WE HEAD TOWARD DAWN AT THE MORE FOG PRONE LOCATIONS...HOWEVER
THE PRESENCE OF THE SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUD CANOPY SHOULD LIMIT THE
EXTENT OF THE FOG. GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
DAYLIGHT AND EVENING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. DO EXPECT A FEW SCT SHOWERS
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE TERMINALS AROUND 30%.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST WATERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS HIGH POSITION WILL KEEP A GENERAL
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. WINDS MAY SLACKEN NEARSHORE OR BRIEFLY TURN
ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK
SEA-BREEZES...BUT EXPECT THE FLOW TO QUICKLY TURN BACK FROM THE EAST
AFTER SUNSET EACH EVENING. WINDS AT TIMES WILL APPROACH CAUTIONARY
LEVELS TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE
SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION WITH A GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PENINSULA. WINDS
MAY BRIEFLY SLACKEN OR TURN ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOP
OF A WEAK SEA-BREEZE...BUT THEN RETURN TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT AT NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS...
HOWEVER NO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE FOG IS ANTICIPATED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 90 72 91 72 / 30 20 10 10
FMY 91 72 91 71 / 30 10 20 10
GIF 90 70 90 70 / 20 10 0 0
SRQ 88 71 90 71 / 30 20 10 10
BKV 91 64 92 64 / 30 20 10 10
SPG 88 76 90 73 / 30 20 10 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...JILLSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
123 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2014
.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 721 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014/
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE CWFA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HI-RES MODELS HAVENT INITIALIZED THE PRECIP CURRENTLY
APPROACHING NW GA VERY WELL. THE HRRR DOES PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN GA NEAR 12Z TOMORROW...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ON
THIS SOLUTION. SO...WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA. A SERIES OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE TROUGH IS SLOWLY PUSHING THE TROUGH
EASTWARD. CURRENTLY A DISTURBANCE IS SPARKING SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS ACROSS NORTH AL... AND THIS ACTIVITY COULD HOLD TOGETHER
AND PUSH ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GA THIS EVENING. MODELS AGREE ON
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST... AND ESTABLISHING
A LESS ACTIVE NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALSO DRAG A COLD FRONT... CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... INTO FAR NORTH GA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. NAM AND GFS MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND SAG
THE FRONT INTO THE ATLANTA METRO AREA... OR POSSIBLY JUST SOUTH OF
ATLANTA... BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE IT STALLS AND
MEANDERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE APPROACHING FRONT TONIGHT
WILL WARRANT HOLDING ONTO A LOW CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS NORTH GA
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD GREATLY HINDER
PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE WEAKENING FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PLAN TO SHOW ONLY A 10-15 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTH GA
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH EVEN LESS
POPS SOUTHWARD. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT... ALONG
WITH THE MEANDERING FRONT... WILL WARRANT ADDING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO FAR NORTH GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT... BUT NO THUNDER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AS FOR TEMPS... A MAV AND MET BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD... WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY... THEN NEAR NORMAL LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT.
39
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED THIS AFTERNOON AS SOFTWARE UPGRADE
RESULTED IN NO 12Z MODEL DATA INTO THE SYSTEM. OVERALL STILL
LOOKING AT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS FLOW FLATTENS ALOFT BUT SOME
WET CHANGES COMING AS WE TAP INTO PACIFIC TROPICAL MOISTURE LATE
IN THE WEEK...THOUGH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
TDP
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014/
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS
RUNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS
FAIRLY FLAT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE STARTING TO SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD CONCERNING THE DEPTH AND SHARPNESS OF THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...BOTH SHOW OUR REGION COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH GEORGIA JUST SOUTH OF THE MORE
ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW...BOTH MODELS KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION ALONG OR NORTH OF OUR NORTHERN BORDER. IN FACT BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF CUMULATIVE QPF SHOWS ALMOST NO PRECIPITATION
SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR THROUGH MONDAY. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE WEAKENING UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AND HOW FAR SOUTH A
WEAK COLD FRONT MANAGES TO PUSH INTO THE STATE.
MODEL INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL AT BEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...
BUT NOT NON-EXISTENT SO I HAVE KEPT THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.
20
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST OVER MOST AREAS.
THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG IN AHN/MCN THIS
MORNING. CONVECTION OVER NRN TN COULD DRIFT INTO NORTH GA LATER THIS
MORNING BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. A FEW-SCT CU WILL
DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND THEN DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
REMAIN WESTERLY TODAY...BECOMING NEAR CALM TO CALM TONIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENT.
17
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 61 84 59 84 / 20 5 10 10
ATLANTA 65 83 65 84 / 20 10 10 10
BLAIRSVILLE 58 76 55 77 / 40 20 20 20
CARTERSVILLE 62 83 57 83 / 30 10 20 20
COLUMBUS 65 88 66 86 / 10 5 10 10
GAINESVILLE 63 82 61 81 / 30 10 20 20
MACON 62 90 61 86 / 5 5 5 10
ROME 61 83 56 83 / 30 20 20 20
PEACHTREE CITY 60 85 59 84 / 20 10 10 10
VIDALIA 63 87 66 85 / 5 5 5 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
151 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS TO BETTER HANDLE THE ONGOING CONVECTION
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CURRENT SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE FORECAST GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS.
THE ONLY REAL REMAINING THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING. THE NEW ZONES
HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT OUT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 825 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
THE TRAIN OF SEVERE STORMS AND SUPERCELLS CONTINUES TO ROLL EAST
THROUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY. AS SUCH HAVE EXTENDED THE TORNADO WATCH
THROUGH 11 PM PER CONVERSATION WITH SPC AND NEIGHBORS. HAVE SET UP
THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES AND THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
UPDATED ZONES AND HWO OUT SHORTLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO EXTEND THE TORNADO WATCH A COUPLE OF COUNTIES
SOUTH. THIS WAS MAINLY TO DEAL WITH THE DEVELOPING LINEAR CELLS JUST
OUTSIDE OF ROCKCASTLE COUNTY. THE WCN HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG WITH
UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES. HWO TO FOLLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA. THE WIND FIELD AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH A MID LEVEL SPEED
MAX MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SURGE OF
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION...HAS RESULTED IN A THREAT FOR
SUPERCELLS AND THEIR SEVERE WEATHER ATTRIBUTES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA...WHERE A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT. ON
RADAR...A VERY STRONG/SEVERE CLUSTER OF STORMS IS NOW TRACKING
THROUGH THE WATCH AREA TOWARD EAST KENTUCKY AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
JKL CWA BETWEEN 4:30 AND 6 PM...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER THIS
INITIAL BATCH OF STORMS PASS. A CLEARING OF THE LOWER CLOUDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE EARLIER SHOWERS AND STORMS IS BRINGING TEMPERATURES UP
INTO THE 60S AND 70S THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
10 TO 20 KTS AND GUSTS TO 25 KTS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE LARGE AND DEEP UPPER
LOW SPINNING NORTH OF THE MIDWEST AND ITS ATTENDANT ENERGY PACKET
RACING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. THIS NODE OF
THE UPPER LOW THEN LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR DECENT HEIGHT
RISES IN ITS WAKE. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE A VIRTUAL MATCH WITH THEIR
FLATTENING OF THE PATTERN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. LATER THAT NIGHT
AN OPENING TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNER/S REGION WILL SEND MORE ENERGY
THIS WAY IN THE FAST FLOW LEADING RIGHT INTO KENTUCKY. FOR THE MOST
PART...USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR AND
NAM12 FOR THE NEAR TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A STORMY EVENING FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AREA INTO THE
EVENING. THE STORMS WILL MOVE OFF BY LATE EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ON TAP. FOR WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE US ONE SOLID DAY OF DRY WEATHER WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HOWEVER...THE FRONT THAT PUSHES OFF TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT WILL START TO COME BACK AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BY DAWN IN BOTH THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA AND ALSO ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER.
USED THE CONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 18-24 HOURS BEFORE GOING WITH THE SUPERBLEND
THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR TERRAIN EFFECTS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED
UP MORE SIMILAR TO THE WETTER MET NUMBERS TONIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH THE BROAD
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CANADIAN MARITIMES AND SLOWLY
SHIFTING EAST. MEANWHILE DURING THIS TIME...A RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS WITH A CLOSED LOW BEING THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM SIMON MOVING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. BY THE WEEKEND...A STRONG JET STREAK DIVES OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A TROUGH DEEPENS
FURTHER WITH THE REMNANTS OF SIMON MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS HAVE SEEM TO
COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AS WELL AS THE SUPER BLEND
MODEL...AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SUPER BLEND GAVE A
CONSENSUS OF LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO KEPT THIS SOLUTION
IN THE FORECAST.
FOR DETAILS IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AN EXITING FRONT BECOMES STALLED
AND ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ALONG THE TN VALLEY AND INTO KY DURING THE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD DUE TO STRONG RIDGING ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THIS SETS UP A SCENARIO WHERE NUMEROUS WAVES MOVE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY PROVIDING RAIN CHANCES EVERYDAY DURING THE EXTENDED. THIS
BEING A MORE SPRING LIKE PATTERN OCCURRING THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
VEGETATION ON THE DECLINE COULD MAKE FOR A CONCERN FOR FLOODING IN
THE EXTENDED. WITH THE REMNANTS OF SIMON...THE INFLUX OF GULF
MOISTURE AND AN ACTIVE JET FOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THE INGREDIENTS
MAY BE AVAILABLE FOR THIS EVENT. A FEW DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE
IRONED OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE MODELS HANDLING A TRANSITION IN THE
PATTERN BUT THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2014
THE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE TAFS WILL BE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE PLAGUED THE AREA SINCE YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON HAVE NOW MOVED WELL SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AT LOZ AND
SME...AND THERE SHOULD BE NO FURTHER ISSUES THE REST OF TONIGHT AT
THE TAF SITES WITH SHOWERS OR STORMS. AFTER 13Z TODAY SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PADUCAH KY
1141 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014
Updated the aviation discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014
Morning convection has waned as the main cells have departed to
the east. There is still a slgt chance of a perturbation upstream
rotating down/across the FA and touching a storm off this pm, but
the HRRR suggests this is increasingly unlikely. Will maintain a
20 pop mention thru diurnal heating hours.
Drier air works down the column for our mid week and spells the
end of such as a frontal boundary drapes from the Plains across
the Mississippi and Ohio valleys sometime later in the week. This
sets the stage for an extended wet period that begins perhaps as
early as Wed night and continues thru the remainder of the short
term, into/thru the long term portion of the forecast.
.LONG TERM.../Friday through Tuesday/
Issued at 138 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2014
High confidence in a very wet extended forecast. Medium confidence
in the exact timing of the several rounds of rain events.
By Thursday into Friday a front will be stalled over the area
bringing rain to the region. This will combine with remnants of TS
Simon which should make landfall today. This will establish a
tropical connection to the southwest Pacific often referred to as a
monsoonal flow out west. This additional moisture will likely set
the stage for some flooding this weekend as the front meanders over
the heartland and especially early next week when yet another
stronger system will be bearing down on the area. This later system
could produce strong or even severe storms with very efficient/heavy
rain. At this time the models are not too aggressive with
instability but that is a little too far out to rule it out. Between
days 4 through 8 Friday through Wednesday morning we could see
between 3 to 5 inches for a storm total. The limiting factor will be
how much instability the atmosphere can muster.
Temperatures will go below normal Friday through Saturday then near
normal Sunday before falling back below by mid week next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014
High pressure and decreasing moisture overspreading the TAF sites
should keep them precipitation free through the period with only
a few scattered clouds expected. Calm to light and variable winds
overnight will pick up out of the northwest to north AOB 10 knots
after 15Z.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Smith
SHORT TERM...DH
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
416 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING AND WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH QUEBEC. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN CONCERNS FOR TODAY WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES INTO ONTARIO AND EVENTUALLY QUEBEC TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS IT
DOES SO, THE LOW WILL DRAG ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE RAINFALL IS ALREADY OCCURRING
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THERE`S LOTS OF EMBEDDED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CURRENTLY NOSING INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS 40-50 KT JET WILL SPREAD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THAT AT LEAST SOME OF
THIS WIND WILL BE ABLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE, ESPECIALLY IN ANY
CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP. AS SUCH, IT WILL BE ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH. THIS JET WILL ALSO
RESULT IN IMPRESSIVE SHEAR, WITH 0-6KM VALUES RUNNING AS HIGH AS 50
KTS. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THERE`S ALREADY
CONVECTION ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING (NEAR BANGOR ATTM AS WELL AS
FURTHER UPSTREAM IN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND), FEEL THAT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY. THE 05Z HRRR MODEL, WHICH
IS HANDLING PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT FAIRLY WELL THIS MORNING,
INDICATES THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT, GIVEN THE STRONG
SHEAR, ROTATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. IN FACT,
THE LATEST DAY 1 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS INTRODUCED A 2%
CHANCE OF TORNADOES FOR COASTAL MAINE STRETCHING FROM ABOUT THE
HANCOCK/WASHINGTON COUNTY BORDER SOUTHWARD TO NEW HAMPSHIRE.
HOWEVER, TORNADO FORMATION IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY AND THEREFORE WAS NOT
INCLUDED IN ANY PRODUCTS OUTSIDE OF THIS DISCUSSION. IT IS ONLY
INCLUDED HERE AS IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY. PWATS IN EXCESS
OF 1 INCH INDICATE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF AN INCH
TO UPWARDS OF 1.25 INCHES.
FOR TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK THIS EVENING,
USHERING IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS. AS SUCH, EXPECT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO A QUICK END BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE A BIT AS WELL, THOUGH GUSTS TO 20 MPH WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT, BUT
THE WIND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TO THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH (A BIT COLDER IN
THE USUAL VALLEY LOCALES) TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SERIES OF S/WVS ROTATING ARND AN UPPER LVL VORTEX OVR ERN CAN
WILL BRING PDS OF CLDNSS ACROSS THE N HLF OF THE FA...MSLY IN THE
AFTN/EVE HRS OF BOTH THU AND FRI WHEN THERE WILL NE A CHC OF
SHWRS MSLY ACROSS THE NRN QUARTER OF THE FA...BOTH ELEMENTS WHERE
GFS MOS GUIDANCE DOES WELL WITH IN THE COLD SEASON. THE SCT-BKN
SC LN WILL RETREAT INTO NRN PTNS OF THE FA DURING THE LATE NGT
HRS OF BOTH THU AND FRI. THE SFC PRES GRAD WILL REMAIN STRONG
DURING THESE PDS... SO NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF NGT TM RADIATIONAL
COOLING...XCPT PERHAPS A SHORT WINDOW LATE FRI NGT ACROSS THE NW
WHEN WINDS SLACKED AND CLDS DECREASE. HI TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE
BLO AVG AND LOW TEMPS NEAR AVG DURG THIS PTN OF THE FCST.
SAT MAY FEATURE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE N WHILE A FLAT
S/WV FROM THE OH VLY MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST BRINGING A CHC
OF SHWRS PERHAPS AS FAR N AS OUR COASTAL WATERS SAT INTO SAT
EVE...WITH CLDNSS FROM THIS SYSTEM REACHING DOWNEAST AREAS DURG
THESE PDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF CLDNSS ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/WV AND SFC LOW MOVG E
OF THE MID ATLC STATES TO S OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL MOVE E OF DOWNEAST
PTNS OF THE FA LATE SAT NGT. THIS WILL ALLOW MCLR SKIES FOR SUN
INTO MON MORN AS A LARGE SFC HI FROM THE GREAT LKS BUILD TOWARD
THE FA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BLO AVG DURG THESE PDS...WITH
POTENTIALLY THE COLDEST MRNG OCCURRING SUN NGT AS THE SFC HI
SETTLES OVRHD...PROMOTING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MON WILL BEGIN
FAIR...BUT CLDNSS WILL BEGIN INCREASING MON AFTN AS A S/WV AND SFC
LOW APCHS FROM THE OH VLY. SHWRS FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO ARRIVE
MON NGT AND CONT INTO TUE. INTERESTING THAT THE USUALLY SLOWER
ECMWF MODEL IS FASTER IN BRINGING CLDS AND SHWRS WITH THIS SYSTEM
BY 6 TO 12 HRS THAN THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS MODEL RUN...BUT WE PREFER
TO LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS MODEL RUN THIS UPDATE...WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY THE CORRESPONDING GFS ENSM RUN. HI TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER ON BOTH MON AND TUE...WITH MUCH MILDER OVRNGT LOWS MON NGT.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: AVIATION SITES ARE CURRENTLY A MIX OF CONDITIONS,
RANGING FROM LIFR AT KFVE AND KBGR TO VFR AT KHUL. WIDESPREAD RAIN
IS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING, AND IT IS EXPECTED ALL
SITES WILL LOWER TO IFR BY 16Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG
WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 TO 50 KTS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, THEN IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE RAIN EXITS THE
REGION. ALL SITES VFR BY 06Z. EARLY MORNING FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME DUE TO WINDS FORECASTED TO REMAIN NEAR 10 KTS
OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR IS XPCTD THRU THIS PD...WITH PDS OF LOW
VFR OR HIGH MVFR CLGS POSSIBLE ATTMS ACROSS NRN TAF SITES THU AND
FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO THURSDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNDER 20 KTS, THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
FIRST APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES THE WATERS. SEAS ARE ALREADY
RUNNING 4-5 FEET, AND WAVES WILL BUILD THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL,
REACHING 6-7 FEET BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
LULL IN WINDS THIS EVENING, THEY WILL PICK UP ONCE AGAIN LATE AS
COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS.
SEAS WILL STAY ABOVE 5 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: GENERAL SCA OR SCA FOR HAZ SEAS WILL LIKELY
CONT THU INTO MUCH OF FRI...SPCLY OVR OUTER MZS050-051...BEFORE
WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BY FRI NGT AND CONT BLO SCA THRESHOLDS OVR
THE WEEKEND. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
THESE PTNS OF THE FCST.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AROUND MID-MORNING TODAY. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A SURGE OF AROUND HALF A FOOT ASSOCIATED WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS HOW MUCH THIS SURGE WILL BE ENHANCED AS IT MOVES UP
PENOBSCOT BAY TOWARD BANGOR. A HALF FOOT SURGE WOULD TAKE THE RIVER
GAGE UP TO AROUND ACTION STAGE (11.0 FT), WITH ANOTHER HALF A FOOT
BRINGING THE GAGE CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE A BRIEF
SURGE AND NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. A LOOK AT
OUR LOCAL WAVE RUNUP MODEL INDICATES THAT LITTLE TO NO COASTAL
FLOODING/SPLASH OVER WILL OCCUR.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HASTINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1235 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A STRENGTHENING AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1235 AM UPDATE...THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST
POPS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. THIS MODEL HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON PRECIP PLACEMENT ATTM, AND INDICATES THAT SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK. THE CHANGES WERE MAINLY COSMETIC AND
SHOULDN`T CHANGE TO OVERALL FEEL OF THE FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGES
WERE NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A
STRENGTHENING LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECTING THE REGION
FOR WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE FOR TODAY, A LEAD DISTURBANCE IS
PRODUCING SOME RAIN AND SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AS OF THE MID AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST BEFORE BEGINNING TO FIZZLE OUT THIS EVENING AS IT
REACHES CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA FROM PENOBSCOT COUNTY NORTHEAST
INTO EASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN FAIRLY STRONG
AND GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY DUE TO A LOW LEVEL JET BUT THESE
WINDS SHOULD COME DOWN FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT.
FOR TONIGHT, THE ABOVE MENTIONED RAIN/SHOWERS WILL FIZZLE TO
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE AS LOW STRATUS SETS OVER THE AREA ON A
SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOWS WILL BE MILD...IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
THE MAIN SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A SWATH OF HEAVIER
RAIN TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING
THE MID TO LATE MORNING TIME FRAME. S/SE WINDS WILL ALSO COME UP
AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP...WINDS OF 40-45 KNOTS ARE
DEPICTED IN THE LOWEST 1 KM BY BOTH THE GFS AND NAM. GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 MPH HAVE BEEN INDICATED IN THE GRIDS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THE OTHER
CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION...MODELS INDICATE MU CAPES OF SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR UPWARDS OF 50 KNOTS. PUTTING THIS
ALL TOGETHER, BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
WINDS TO MIX DOWN IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING
THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. GUSTS OF AT LEAST 40 TO 50
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE CELLS. THE HEAVIER RAIN AND
ANY THUNDER WILL END LATE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS STILL LOOKING TO BE 0.50 TO 1.00
INCHES WITH UP TO 1.50 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS TERM.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
W/STEADY RAIN & SHOWERS ENDING AND SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS
THE DOWNEAST AND COAST OVERNIGHT. DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST DUE TO A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. QPF AMONTS FROM
THIS FEATURE WILL BE LESS THAN 0.10". DEFINITELY MUCH COLDER THAN
THE LAST FEW DAYS AS READINGS BY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH AND WEST AND LOW TO MID 40S CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST.
REMAINING UNSETTLED AND CHILLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND THE UPPER
TROF WILL REMAIN TO BACK ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANY
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION W/THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST AS REFERENCED BY THE NAM/GFS AND ECMWF. STAYED CLOSE TO THE
MIDNIGHT CREW`S THINKING OF DAYTIME HIGHS OF LOWER 50S NORTH AND
WEST AND MID TO UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BASICALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND W/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF/GFS AND CANADIAN
GLOBAL ALL SHOW LOW PRES SLIDING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE HIGH IS THEN SHOWN TO SLIDE OFF THE EAST ON MONDAY W/THE SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE NEW ENGLAND REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BEFORE
THEN, DRY AND MORE LIKE AUTUMN WEATHER
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
AS STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE SET UP HEADING INTO THIS
EVENING EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP TO MVFR LEVELS WITH IFR LIKELY BY
LATER TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN AND STRONGER WINDS WILL
MOVE THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY BEGINNING MID TO LATE
MORNING AND LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN CONTINUING IFR
AND EVEN A PERIOD OF POSSIBLE LIFR. EMBEDDED CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL WIND SHEAR ISSUES AS WINDS WILL
BE OVER 40 KNOTS IN THE LOWEST 1 KM.
SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GO VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
W/THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ON
THURSDAY AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MVFR FOR FRIDAY. VFR FOR KBGR AND
BHB RIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS HAVE BEEN HOVERING JUST BELOW SCA LEVELS
THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO COME UP HEADING INTO TONIGHT
WHILE THERE MAY BE A BRIEF DECREASE IN THE WINDS THIS EVENING
BEFORE THEY COME UP LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE ONGOING HEADLINES WHICH FEATURE AN SCA FOR
WINDS/SEAS BEGINNING AT 00Z THIS EVENING CONTINUING THROUGH 0Z
THURSDAY.
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EXPECT STRONG SCA CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30 KNOTS WITH SEAS COMING UP TO AROUND 7 FT. DUE TO STABLE
CONDITIONS WITH THE WARMER AIR COMING OVER THE COLDER WATERS MIX
DOWN POTENTIAL OF STRONGER WINDS WILL BE LIMITED SO DO NOT EXPECT
GALE CONDITIONS.CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO ABATE LATE DAY BEHIND
THE FRONT.
SHORT TERM: SCA TO DROP OFF BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS WINDS COME
DOWN BELOW 20 KTS. SEAS COULD STAY UP A WHILE LONGER WHICH COULD
LEAD THE SCA TO TRANSITION TO HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY
EVENING. A SECOND SURGE OF SOME GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
W/THE SECOND SURFACE FRONT. ATTM, KEPT THE WINDS BELOW SCA AND
LEANED W/GUSTS TO 20 KTS W/AN OFFSHORE FLOW. SEAS WILL STAY BELOW
SCA LEVELS AS WELL. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND REMAIN THIS WAY INTO SATURDAY. ATTM, DECIDED
TO GO W/15 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KTS MAINLY DURING THE DAY INTO THE
EVENING HRS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A SURGE UP TO 0.5 FT WHICH PUSHES THE TIDE UP
AT BAR HARBOR. A LOOK AT THE LOCAL MODEL RUN HERE AT THE OFFICE
SHOWED NO COASTAL FLOODING. SOME MINOR SPLASH COULD OCCUR BUT NOT
WORTH A HEADLINE ATTM. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE SURGE TO COME UP THE
PENOBSCOT INTO BANGOR WHICH COULD CAUSE THE GAGE THERE TO HIT
ACTION STAGE OF 11.0 FT. THIS SURGE IS TO SHORT LIVED AND AFTER
COLLABORATING W/NERFC, THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY
ISSUES. A SURGE OF OVER A FOOT AND HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE NEEDED
FOR FLOODING TO OCCUR PAST ON PAST HISTORY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED BY THE LATER CREWS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/HASTINGS/HEWITT
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/HASTINGS/HEWITT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
305 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVECTION FINALLY OUT OF THE CWA.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM A SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN OHIO MAY BE STALLED
OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND COAL FIELDS. EXPECT THIS TO SLOWLY
MOVE OUT AS WELL GIVEN THE PRESSURE RISES THAT WILL OCCUR OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. AS
MENTIONED IN THE AVIATION AFD...EXPECTING A LOW STRATUS DECK TO SET
UP OVER MOST OF THE CWA AND COULD LAST UNTIL 16Z TODAY IN PLACES.
BY AFTERNOON...THE COLUMN WILL HAVE DRIED OUT SIGNIFICANTLY...AND
EXPECT ONLY SOME FLAT DIURNAL CUMULUS WITH MIXING TODAY. CLEARING IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL SHED SOME CLOUD
COVER INFLUENCE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AS WE HIT 12Z THURSDAY.
MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN GETTING HAMMERED THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS GIVEN
THE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WHICH IT PRESUMABLY DID NOT HANDLE WELL.
RIDING IT WITH MORE CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE SIMPLER ATMOSPHERIC SET UP.
IN THE END...LOOKING AT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH SLIGHT VARIATIONS HERE AND THERE...RUNNING SLIGHTLY COOL IN A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL RETURN LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY...AS A FRONT
MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS...ALONG WITH MULTIPLE WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...WILL TRIGGER ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN...THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS.
FOR CONSISTENCY...HAVE NOT MADE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO POPS AND/OR
WEATHER.
TWEAKED THE MAXT/MINT GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. PERIOD WILL START WITH
FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE LEANED HARD ON THE RAP DATA FOR THIS ISSUANCE OF THE TAFS.
GIVEN THE RECENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND THE POST CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT IFR STRATUS TO BEGIN FORMING OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS...EXCEPT TOWARDS
THE HTS AREA...AND LEFT IT OUT OF THIS TERMINAL. STRATUS MAY HAVE
A HARD TIME MIXING OUT AFTER THE SUN COMES UP...AND MAY NOT REACH
VFR CEILINGS AGAIN AT CERTAIN SITES UNTIL 16Z OR LATER.
THINK THE WIND WILL STAY UP AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT...SO WILL NOT
ADD VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO THE FORECAST ON THE FRONT END OF
THE TAFS.
VFR EXPECTED AFTER THE STRATUS MIXES OUT. CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AND WILL SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT BEFORE 06Z AT EKN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM THROUGH 18Z. HIGH AFTER.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: STRATUS TIMING COULD VARY. THERE IS A CHANCE
IT DOES NOT FORM AT ALL.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 10/08/14
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M H M M M H M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M M M M M H
CKB CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L L L L M M
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
139 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG DISTURBANCE WHIPS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH WEAK COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN LATE
THURSDAY IN FAST ZONAL FLOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
CONVECTION STILL WORKING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AREA...BUT
SHOULD BE OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. DRY BEYOND. EXPECTING LOW
STRATUS TO FORM OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TORNADO WATCH HAS EXPIRED FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LINE OF
CONVECTION SHIFTING S AND SHOULD BE OUT OF CWA IN NEXT FEW HRS.
WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE IF LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG DEVELOPS AS SOME
OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. SHOULD STRATUS INDEED DEVELOP...THEN
IT MAY TAKE UNTIL MID MORNING FOR IT TO SCT OUT GIVEN INVERSION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ACTIVE WEATHER HOWEVER WILL
RETURN LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE
REGION. THIS...ALONG WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT...WILL TRIGGER ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH ANY STORMS.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN MODELS CONCERNING PLACEMENT OF
FRONT/TRACK OF WAVES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CONTINUED TO LEAN MORE
TOWARDS THE ECMWF/HPC SOLUN...KEEPING HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. PERIOD WILL START WITH
FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE LEANED HARD ON THE RAP DATA FOR THIS ISSUANCE OF THE TAFS.
GIVEN THE RECENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND THE POST CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT IFR STRATUS TO BEGIN FORMING OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS...EXCEPT TOWARDS
THE HTS AREA...AND LEFT IT OUT OF THIS TERMINAL. STRATUS MAY HAVE
A HARD TIME MIXING OUT AFTER THE SUN COMES UP...AND MAY NOT REACH
VFR CEILINGS AGAIN AT CERTAIN SITES UNTIL 16Z OR LATER.
THINK THE WIND WILL STAY UP AROUND 5KTS OVERNIGHT...SO WILL NOT
ADD VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO THE FORECAST ON THE FRONT END OF
THE TAFS.
VFR EXPECTED AFTER THE STRATUS MIXES OUT. CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AND WILL SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT BEFORE 06Z AT EKN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM THROUGH 18Z. HIGH AFTER.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: STRATUS TIMING COULD VARY. THERE IS A CHANCE
IT DOES NOT FORM AT ALL.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 10/08/14
UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H M H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H M M M M M M H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H M M
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/KTB/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1144 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NE OK/NW AR AFTER 09-10Z. KFYV/KXNA AND KFSM WILL
MOST LIKELY BE AFFECTED...WITH SOME LOCALIZED MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR STORMS. CONVECTION SHOULD
PUSH EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 15Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014/
DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST..OTHER THAN TO
DELAY RAIN CHANCE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. ALSO RAISED MIN
TEMPS SOUTH AND CENTRAL GIVEN CURRENT DEWPOINTS.
LATEST 00Z WRF BLOWS PRECIP UP 10Z-15Z NE OK / NW AR.
LIKELY OVERBLOWN. LATEST HRRR ONLY A HINT OF SHRA IN
THAT TIME PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH WILL
LIKELY SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AFTER 09-10Z ACROSS PORTIONS
OF FAR NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR...MAINLY IMPACTING THE
KFYV/KXNA AND KFSM TAF SITES INTO THE MORNING HOURS. LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR STORMS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014/
DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
A GOOD 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
FRONT WILL STALL OVER AFOREMENTIONED AREA OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
SUFFICIENT SHEAR/ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. ANY ONGOING
STORMS WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY MID MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET
BEGINS TO DECREASE.
WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST. DEEPER MOISTURE
FROM REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WILL MERGE WITH UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. FLOODING COULD BECOME AN ISSUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
BEFORE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
STILL SOME BIG DIFFERENCES CONCERNING STRENGTH OF UPPER TROUGH
THAT MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
ECMWF MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH SYSTEM...COMPARED TO THE PROGRESSIVE
/WEAKER GFS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS. IF GFS BEGINS
TO TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF...POPS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE INCREASED
INCLUDING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME. ALSO...ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WOULD INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 64 88 68 87 / 30 20 20 30
FSM 66 87 65 87 / 40 20 10 10
MLC 70 88 71 88 / 20 10 10 10
BVO 57 88 63 86 / 30 20 30 40
FYV 56 82 60 85 / 40 20 20 20
BYV 56 80 62 84 / 40 20 30 30
MKO 66 87 66 88 / 30 20 10 20
MIO 57 83 65 85 / 40 20 40 40
F10 68 88 69 87 / 20 10 10 10
HHW 68 88 67 86 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...18
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1110 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.AVIATION...
WEAK GRADIENT SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA
WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSING EAST AND PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD. SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DOMINATE KLBB
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST RAP RUNS INSIST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL IMPACT WINDS AT KCDS...SHIFTING TO A NORTHEAST COMPONENT
SHORTLY...BUT WE ARE NOT SEEING MUCH TO CONVINCE US OF THIS YET
LOOKING AT THE WEST TEXAS MESONET ARRAY. SO WE HAVE OPTED FOR A
VARIABLE COMPONENT AT KCDS THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL LOW LEVEL
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST IS FIRMLY RE-ESTABLISHED BY MID MORNING. VFR
CONTINUING OF COURSE. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014/
AVIATION...
VFR WILL CONTINUE WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSING OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED
BY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AND ARE EXPECTED TO THICKEN AND LOWER JUST SLIGHTLY.
SURFACE TROUGH WILL DOMINATE AS WELL...ALTHOUGH A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT MAY SLIP INTO KCDS NEAR MIDNIGHT. EVEN IF IT DOES...WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT SO DO NOT PLAN TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS
TIME. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE A NOTCH
AND MAY BECOME GUSTY. ALSO DEFER MENTION WITHIN THE TAF ON THIS
FOR NOW BUT WILL READDRESS FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014/
SHORT TERM...
A QUIET 24 HOURS IN STORE FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA AS LOW-AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES FROM NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON TO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUD MOVING
THROUGH AND SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE MAY PUT A DAMPER ON THE ECLIPSE
VIEWING LATE TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TANGIBLE
EFFECT ON LOCAL WEATHER. A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED IN THE VICINITY
OF I-40 IN THE PANHANDLE WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND MAY
MAKE A BRIEF INCURSION INTO THE FCST AREA...BUT WITH NO UPPER LEVEL
IMPETUS WILL EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO DOMINATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE WARM AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS
AND NO SIGNIFICANT NET DIFFERENCE IN HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES.
LONG TERM...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MENTIONED ABOVE AND DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH
APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS. COULD SEE ENOUGH FORCING IF ANY LEAD
IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE...THAT
WHEN COMBINED WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR ONE INCH AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE INTO
THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL FURTHER INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT IN TANDEM
WITH AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT OUT OF THE PANHANDLE TO INCREASE
STORM CHANCES. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FORCING CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. THE MOST PROMINENT
TIME FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL COME LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY WHEN MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER LIFT IS REALIZED BETWEEN THE FRONT
AND UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE FAVORED LOCATION BEING ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS. TRAINING STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY GIVEN A NEAR-
PARALLEL ORIENTATION WITH THE STEERING FLOW ALOFT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AS THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH SWINGS EAST. MAY HAVE TO TRIM POPS A LITTLE QUICKER AFTER
12Z SATURDAY IF TRENDS CONTINUE IN PUSHING THIS FEATURE EAST OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS BY THEN...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION IN FOR ALL LOCALES AT
THIS POINT. A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD THEN ENSUE BY
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND SOUTH OF A SURFACE TROUGH WITH
BACKING FLOW ALOFT...BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THERE STILL REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT
SHOULD SEE ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE RETURN TO WARRANT SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION FOR STORMS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE QUESTIONS ARISE AS TO WHAT TYPE OF
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WITH POSSIBILITIES
RANGING ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO ON EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 50 87 54 86 55 / 0 0 10 20 30
TULIA 51 89 56 88 56 / 0 0 10 10 30
PLAINVIEW 53 89 58 87 58 / 0 0 10 10 30
LEVELLAND 55 89 58 87 59 / 0 0 10 20 20
LUBBOCK 55 89 61 86 61 / 0 0 10 10 20
DENVER CITY 58 89 58 87 59 / 0 0 10 20 20
BROWNFIELD 56 90 60 87 60 / 0 0 10 20 20
CHILDRESS 59 92 64 89 64 / 0 0 10 10 30
SPUR 57 91 61 88 62 / 0 0 10 10 20
ASPERMONT 59 92 63 88 65 / 0 0 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
953 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
UPDATED GRIDS MAINLY TO ADJUST POPS FOR THU. 12Z NAM IS A BIT
FASTER BRINGING IN PRECIP TOMORROW MORNING...ALSO HAS A BIT MORE
QPF AND IS COLDER FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THU. WILL DEAL WITH
THE IMPACTS IN THE AFTERNOON UPDATE. ROSE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
EXTENSIVE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY AS
MOISTURE FROM THE REMAINS OF SIMON SOUTH OF CA CONTINUES TO GET PICK
UP BY THE BROAD WESTERN U.S.UPPER TROF AND ADVECTED TO THE
NORTHEASTWARD. HAVE TO TO LOOK DOWN TO SOUTHERN AZ TO FIND MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THE CURRENT HOUR...AND THIS LOOKS RATHER
LIGHT IN AREA RADARS.
FOR TODAY...EXPECT TO SEE MORE OF THE SAME WITH CONTINUED HIGH
CLOUDINESS SPREADING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS MAY SERVE TO TAKE
A COUPLE DEGREES OFF TEMPERATURES TODAY...PARTICULARLY OUT WEST
WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL GET THICKER THROUGH THE DAY. NOT TOO
ENTHUSED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP
SATURATED LAYER VERY HIGH BASED. IN FACT...HIGH RES MODELS...HRRR
AND RAP KEEP FORECAST AREA PRECIPITATION FREE DURING THE DAY
TODAY...AND THIS COULD BE THE MORE ACCURATE SOLN. HOWEVER...MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THICKENING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY OUT
WEST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...AND NAM12 AND NSSL 4K WRF ALONG
WITH GFS SHOW SOME SPOTTY POPS THIS AFTERNOON. REMOVED POPS UNTIL
AFTER 18Z...THEN STARTED INTRODUCING THEM INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...A FEW OF WHICH MAY SPREAD OVER INTO THE
SOUTHEAST MTS TOWARDS 00Z. SHOWERS SHOULD BE HIGH BASED...AND NOT
TOO SURE THAT THERE WILL BE ANY THUNDER TODAY AS INSTABILITY LOOKS
RATHER MEAGER. HAVE LEFT ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT
THIS MAY BE PRETTY LOCALIZED AND MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG THE
CONTDVD.
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. REMAINS OF SIMON GET PICKED UP AND LIFTED
TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS NM AS THE TROF ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
ADVANCES TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS REGION TOWARDS THURS MORNING. GFS
LOOKS A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF OVERNIGHT AS IT IS THE MOST
GUNG HO SPREADING IT EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANGRES TOWARDS
12Z. ECMWF AND NAM12 ARE A LITTLE MORE RESERVED IN KEEPING THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION LONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. CAN`T RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER MOVING OFF INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT...AND
WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR BEGINNING
AROUND 09Z. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT LOOK FAIRLY
LIGHT. OF COURSE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE WEST FORK BURN COMPLEX FOR
RAINFALL...BUT THINK THAT RAINFALL RATES SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW
FLOODING THRESHOLDS. -KT
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
NOT MANY ADJUSTMENTS MADE DURING THE LONGER TERM WITH MAIN
METEOROLOGICAL ISSUE BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM REMNANTS OF SIMON FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES DURING THE LONGER TERM INCLUDE
TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOWERING SNOW LEVELS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
FORECAST MODELS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE
STILL PROJECTED TO NEAR ONE INCH AT TIMES FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS LATEST COMPUTER SIMULATIONS PLACE CLOSED UPPER
LOW/REMNANTS OF SIMON OVER FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA AT 12Z
THURSDAY...WITH SYSTEM PUSHING INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY 21Z
THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT BY 00Z
SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD BE NOTED OVER PRIMARILY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA DURING
THIS TIME-FRAME.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES AS WELL AS HIGHER ELEVATION ACCUMULATING
SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...IN ADDITION TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
PROJECT THAT TOTAL 24 TO 36 HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF EXCEEDING ONE INCH(WITH LOCALLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE)...ESPECIALLY OVER FAVORED EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST DISTRICT. AREA BURN SCARS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY
FOR HYDRO/FLASH FLOODING ISSUES. IN ADDITION...HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WILL ALSO BE MONITORED FOR HEAVIER SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL
DURING THE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TIME-FRAME.
ALSO...AS DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...METEOROLOGICAL
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT POTENTIAL UPPER SYSTEM IMPACTING
SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THIS
SYSTEM HAVING THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING LOWERING SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS
TIME-FRAME. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE FROM LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
IT APPEARS THAT BELOW SEASONAL MID-OCTOBER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE NOTED FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WARMER
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY NEXT WEEK THANKS TO BASICALLY DRY ZONAL
UPPER FLOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO...ESPECIALLY BY NEXT
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT BASES OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO LOWER
THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...MAINLY ALONG THE
CONTDVD...THOUGH CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. INCREASING MOISTURE
TONIGHT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS TOWARDS 12Z. KALS MAY SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER 09Z WITH
VFR CIGS. KCOS AND KPUB WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY UNTIL LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
517 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
EXTENSIVE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY AS
MOISTURE FROM THE REMAINS OF SIMON SOUTH OF CA CONTINUES TO GET PICK
UP BY THE BROAD WESTERN U.S.UPPER TROF AND ADVECTED TO THE
NORTHEASTWARD. HAVE TO TO LOOK DOWN TO SOUTHERN AZ TO FIND MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THE CURRENT HOUR...AND THIS LOOKS RATHER
LIGHT IN AREA RADARS.
FOR TODAY...EXPECT TO SEE MORE OF THE SAME WITH CONTINUED HIGH
CLOUDINESS SPREADING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS MAY SERVE TO TAKE
A COUPLE DEGREES OFF TEMPERATURES TODAY...PARTICULARLY OUT WEST
WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL GET THICKER THROUGH THE DAY. NOT TOO
ENTHUSED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP
SATURATED LAYER VERY HIGH BASED. IN FACT...HIGH RES MODELS...HRRR
AND RAP KEEP FORECAST AREA PRECIPITATION FREE DURING THE DAY
TODAY...AND THIS COULD BE THE MORE ACCURATE SOLN. HOWEVER...MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THICKENING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY OUT
WEST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...AND NAM12 AND NSSL 4K WRF ALONG
WITH GFS SHOW SOME SPOTTY POPS THIS AFTERNOON. REMOVED POPS UNTIL
AFTER 18Z...THEN STARTED INTRODUCING THEM INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...A FEW OF WHICH MAY SPREAD OVER INTO THE
SOUTHEAST MTS TOWARDS 00Z. SHOWERS SHOULD BE HIGH BASED...AND NOT
TOO SURE THAT THERE WILL BE ANY THUNDER TODAY AS INSTABILITY LOOKS
RATHER MEAGER. HAVE LEFT ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT
THIS MAY BE PRETTY LOCALIZED AND MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG THE
CONTDVD.
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. REMAINS OF SIMON GET PICKED UP AND LIFTED
TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS NM AS THE TROF ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
ADVANCES TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS REGION TOWARDS THURS MORNING. GFS
LOOKS A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF OVERNIGHT AS IT IS THE MOST
GUNG HO SPREADING IT EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANGRES TOWARDS
12Z. ECMWF AND NAM12 ARE A LITTLE MORE RESERVED IN KEEPING THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION LONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. CAN`T RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER MOVING OFF INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT...AND
WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR BEGINNING
AROUND 09Z. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT LOOK FAIRLY
LIGHT. OF COURSE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE WEST FORK BURN COMPLEX FOR
RAINFALL...BUT THINK THAT RAINFALL RATES SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW
FLOODING THRESHOLDS. -KT
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
NOT MANY ADJUSTMENTS MADE DURING THE LONGER TERM WITH MAIN
METEOROLOGICAL ISSUE BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM REMNANTS OF SIMON FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES DURING THE LONGER TERM INCLUDE
TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOWERING SNOW LEVELS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
FORECAST MODELS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE
STILL PROJECTED TO NEAR ONE INCH AT TIMES FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS LATEST COMPUTER SIMULATIONS PLACE CLOSED UPPER
LOW/REMNANTS OF SIMON OVER FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA AT 12Z
THURSDAY...WITH SYSTEM PUSHING INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY 21Z
THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT BY 00Z
SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD BE NOTED OVER PRIMARILY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA DURING
THIS TIME-FRAME.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES AS WELL AS HIGHER ELEVATION ACCUMULATING
SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...IN ADDITION TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
PROJECT THAT TOTAL 24 TO 36 HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF EXCEEDING ONE INCH(WITH LOCALLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE)...ESPECIALLY OVER FAVORED EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST DISTRICT. AREA BURN SCARS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY
FOR HYDRO/FLASH FLOODING ISSUES. IN ADDITION...HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WILL ALSO BE MONITORED FOR HEAVIER SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL
DURING THE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TIME-FRAME.
ALSO...AS DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...METEOROLOGICAL
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT POTENTIAL UPPER SYSTEM IMPACTING
SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THIS
SYSTEM HAVING THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING LOWERING SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS
TIME-FRAME. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE FROM LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
IT APPEARS THAT BELOW SEASONAL MID-OCTOBER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE NOTED FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WARMER
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY NEXT WEEK THANKS TO BASICALLY DRY ZONAL
UPPER FLOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO...ESPECIALLY BY NEXT
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT BASES OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO LOWER
THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...MAINLY ALONG THE
CONTDVD...THOUGH CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. INCREASING MOISTURE
TONIGHT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS TOWARDS 12Z. KALS MAY SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER 09Z WITH
VFR CIGS. KCOS AND KPUB WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY UNTIL LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
609 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING AND WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH QUEBEC. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
605 AM UPDATE...A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDER IS CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM HOULTON DOWN TO NEWPORT,
MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. RAINFALL RATES ARE EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PER
HOUR IN THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OF THIS BAND. WHILE THE
INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE MOVING QUICKLY ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FLOODING,
THERE IS CONCERN OF PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS, INCLUDING I-95.
WITH THE ONSET OF RUSH HOUR, HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR PORTIONS OF PENOBSCOT COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR PONDING
OF WATER AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN THIS BAND. THE MESOSCALE MODELS
ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BAND (THE HRRR
HAD IT TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST), SO HAVE HAD TO UPDATE THE FORECAST
TO MATCH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. ALSO CHANGED A CHANCE OF THUNDER TO
SCATTERED WORDING IN THE FORECAST, SINCE WE`VE GOT ONGOING
CONVECTION. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERNS FOR TODAY WILL BE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES INTO ONTARIO AND EVENTUALLY QUEBEC TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS IT
DOES SO, THE LOW WILL DRAG ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE RAINFALL IS ALREADY OCCURRING
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THERE`S LOTS OF EMBEDDED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CURRENTLY NOSING INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS 40-50 KT JET WILL SPREAD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THAT AT LEAST SOME OF
THIS WIND WILL BE ABLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE, ESPECIALLY IN ANY
CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP. AS SUCH, IT WILL BE ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH. THIS JET WILL ALSO
RESULT IN IMPRESSIVE SHEAR, WITH 0-6KM VALUES RUNNING AS HIGH AS 50
KTS. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THERE`S ALREADY
CONVECTION ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING (NEAR BANGOR ATTM AS WELL AS
FURTHER UPSTREAM IN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND), FEEL THAT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY. THE 05Z HRRR MODEL, WHICH
IS HANDLING PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT FAIRLY WELL THIS MORNING,
INDICATES THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT, GIVEN THE STRONG
SHEAR, ROTATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. IN FACT,
THE LATEST DAY 1 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS INTRODUCED A 2%
CHANCE OF TORNADOES FOR COASTAL MAINE STRETCHING FROM ABOUT THE
HANCOCK/WASHINGTON COUNTY BORDER SOUTHWARD TO NEW HAMPSHIRE.
HOWEVER, TORNADO FORMATION IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY AND THEREFORE WAS NOT
INCLUDED IN ANY PRODUCTS OUTSIDE OF THIS DISCUSSION. IT IS ONLY
INCLUDED HERE AS IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY. PWATS IN EXCESS
OF 1 INCH INDICATE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF AN INCH
TO UPWARDS OF 1.25 INCHES.
FOR TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK THIS EVENING,
USHERING IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS. AS SUCH, EXPECT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO A QUICK END BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE A BIT AS WELL, THOUGH GUSTS TO 20 MPH WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT, BUT
THE WIND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TO THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH (A BIT COLDER IN
THE USUAL VALLEY LOCALES) TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SERIES OF S/WVS ROTATING ARND AN UPPER LVL VORTEX OVR ERN CAN
WILL BRING PDS OF CLDNSS ACROSS THE N HLF OF THE FA...MSLY IN THE
AFTN/EVE HRS OF BOTH THU AND FRI WHEN THERE WILL NE A CHC OF
SHWRS MSLY ACROSS THE NRN QUARTER OF THE FA...BOTH ELEMENTS WHERE
GFS MOS GUIDANCE DOES WELL WITH IN THE COLD SEASON. THE SCT-BKN
SC LN WILL RETREAT INTO NRN PTNS OF THE FA DURING THE LATE NGT
HRS OF BOTH THU AND FRI. THE SFC PRES GRAD WILL REMAIN STRONG
DURING THESE PDS... SO NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF NGT TM RADIATIONAL
COOLING...XCPT PERHAPS A SHORT WINDOW LATE FRI NGT ACROSS THE NW
WHEN WINDS SLACKED AND CLDS DECREASE. HI TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE
BLO AVG AND LOW TEMPS NEAR AVG DURG THIS PTN OF THE FCST.
SAT MAY FEATURE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE N WHILE A FLAT
S/WV FROM THE OH VLY MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST BRINGING A CHC
OF SHWRS PERHAPS AS FAR N AS OUR COASTAL WATERS SAT INTO SAT
EVE...WITH CLDNSS FROM THIS SYSTEM REACHING DOWNEAST AREAS DURG
THESE PDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF CLDNSS ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/WV AND SFC LOW MOVG E
OF THE MID ATLC STATES TO S OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL MOVE E OF DOWNEAST
PTNS OF THE FA LATE SAT NGT. THIS WILL ALLOW MCLR SKIES FOR SUN
INTO MON MORN AS A LARGE SFC HI FROM THE GREAT LKS BUILD TOWARD
THE FA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BLO AVG DURG THESE PDS...WITH
POTENTIALLY THE COLDEST MRNG OCCURRING SUN NGT AS THE SFC HI
SETTLES OVRHD...PROMOTING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MON WILL BEGIN
FAIR...BUT CLDNSS WILL BEGIN INCREASING MON AFTN AS A S/WV AND SFC
LOW APCHS FROM THE OH VLY. SHWRS FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO ARRIVE
MON NGT AND CONT INTO TUE. INTERESTING THAT THE USUALLY SLOWER
ECMWF MODEL IS FASTER IN BRINGING CLDS AND SHWRS WITH THIS SYSTEM
BY 6 TO 12 HRS THAN THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS MODEL RUN...BUT WE PREFER
TO LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS MODEL RUN THIS UPDATE...WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY THE CORRESPONDING GFS ENSM RUN. HI TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER ON BOTH MON AND TUE...WITH MUCH MILDER OVRNGT LOWS MON NGT.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: AVIATION SITES ARE CURRENTLY A MIX OF CONDITIONS,
RANGING FROM LIFR AT KFVE AND KBGR TO VFR AT KHUL. WIDESPREAD RAIN
IS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING, AND IT IS EXPECTED ALL
SITES WILL LOWER TO IFR BY 16Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG
WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 TO 50 KTS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, THEN IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE RAIN EXITS THE
REGION. ALL SITES VFR BY 06Z. EARLY MORNING FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME DUE TO WINDS FORECASTED TO REMAIN NEAR 10 KTS
OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR IS XPCTD THRU THIS PD...WITH PDS OF LOW
VFR OR HIGH MVFR CLGS POSSIBLE ATTMS ACROSS NRN TAF SITES THU AND
FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO THURSDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNDER 20 KTS, THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
FIRST APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES THE WATERS. SEAS ARE ALREADY
RUNNING 4-5 FEET, AND WAVES WILL BUILD THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL,
REACHING 6-7 FEET BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
LULL IN WINDS THIS EVENING, THEY WILL PICK UP ONCE AGAIN LATE AS
COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS.
SEAS WILL STAY ABOVE 5 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: GENERAL SCA OR SCA FOR HAZ SEAS WILL LIKELY
CONT THU INTO MUCH OF FRI...SPCLY OVR OUTER MZS050-051...BEFORE
WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BY FRI NGT AND CONT BLO SCA THRESHOLDS OVR
THE WEEKEND. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
THESE PTNS OF THE FCST.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AROUND MID-MORNING TODAY. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A SURGE OF AROUND HALF A FOOT ASSOCIATED WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS HOW MUCH THIS SURGE WILL BE ENHANCED AS IT MOVES UP
PENOBSCOT BAY TOWARD BANGOR. A HALF FOOT SURGE WOULD TAKE THE RIVER
GAGE UP TO AROUND ACTION STAGE (11.0 FT), WITH ANOTHER HALF A FOOT
BRINGING THE GAGE CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE A BRIEF
SURGE AND NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. A LOOK AT
OUR LOCAL WAVE RUNUP MODEL INDICATES THAT LITTLE TO NO COASTAL
FLOODING/SPLASH OVER WILL OCCUR.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HASTINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
840 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
.UPDATE...
EARLY UPDATE TO ADD SHOWERS TO CARTER AND E POWDER RIVER COUNTIES
THROUGH 18Z PER BOWMAN RADAR. HRRR NOT HANDLING SHOWERS VERY WELL
PER CURRENT RADAR AS THE MODEL DOES NOT HAVE THEM IN CARTER AND
POWDER RIVER COUNTIES. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY BASED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
CLOUDS WERE DUE TO LIFT FROM THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF UPPER JET.
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH BACKDOOR FRONT
EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAJORITY OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
AREA AFTER 18Z. ARTHUR
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...
MILD AUTUMN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH THE WARMEST AIR AND
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S F IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY
WHERE WINDS WILL TAKE ON A WESTERLY COMPONENT FOR A WHILE. THAT IS
EXPECTED AS A MODEST NORTHWEST-FLOW SHORTWAVE PULLS A WEAK FRONTAL
ZONE EASTWARD...AIDING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN FAR SOUTHEAST MT DURING
THE MORNING TODAY.
THE FRONT WILL SLOSH BACK SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND HIGHS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER /THOUGH NOT COLD/ ON THURSDAY WITH EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AND
MORE CLOUD COVER...INCLUDING POSSIBLE STRATUS. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE BY THURSDAY EVENING WHEN
A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION. THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW
LIFTED INDICES OF 0 TO -2 C FROM LIVINGSTON TO SHERIDAN. WE MAY BE
IN LINE TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST IF THAT IS
A STEADY THEME FOR ANOTHER MODEL CYCLE OR TWO. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
PRIMARILY RELIED ON THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR THIS PACKAGE AS IT
HAS HAD MORE CONSISTENCY THAN THE GFS...AND ALSO SET THE TONE FOR
WHAT THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD. THE TWO MODELS ARE BASICALLY IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND DEPICTING SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY TRACKING NW TO SE ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY AND THEN CARVING
OUT A BROADER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY SATURDAY
EVENING AS MORE ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT NOT
THAT COLD AS THE AIR WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN.
MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE QUITE A BIT BY MONDAY WITH THE GFS
TRACKING A DECENT SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN BUT THE
ECMWF KEEPS THIS FEATURE MUCH FURTHER NORTH IN CANADA WITH ANTI-
CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILING OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. THE GFS THEN
TRANSITIONS TO A VERY FAST PROGRESSIVE FLOW OF SHORT WAVES WHILE
THE ECMWF INDICATES RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. AS MENTIONED ABOVE I
WILL RELY MAINLY ON THE ECMWF AT THIS POINT DUE TO RECENT
CONSISTENCY...BUT CONFIDENCE MOVING PAST THE WEEKEND IS RATHER
LOW. BT
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. NO AVIATION HAZARDS
ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL CEILINGS BETWEEN KMLS
AND KBHK EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SPRINKLES. BT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 076 046/062 043/066 046/069 045/059 041/058 043/059
0/B 01/E 20/B 02/W 22/W 11/B 11/N
LVM 076 042/065 039/068 043/066 038/056 037/056 038/057
0/B 02/W 10/U 04/W 32/W 21/B 11/N
HDN 077 043/067 042/067 044/072 043/061 039/059 041/063
0/B 01/B 31/B 02/W 32/W 21/B 11/N
MLS 069 040/063 042/065 046/072 043/062 039/059 038/062
1/B 00/B 22/W 11/U 11/B 21/B 11/N
4BQ 073 042/063 042/064 045/073 042/060 038/058 037/060
2/W 01/B 32/W 11/U 31/B 21/B 11/B
BHK 062 036/057 037/058 042/069 041/059 035/054 035/058
2/W 10/B 13/W 11/B 21/B 21/B 11/N
SHR 077 043/066 041/065 042/072 041/057 035/058 034/059
0/B 01/B 31/B 01/U 43/W 21/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
800 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
.UPDATE...
EARLY UPDATE TO ADD SHOWERS TO CARTER AND E POWDER RIVER COUNTIES
THROUGH 18Z PER BOWMAN RADAR. HRRR NOT HANDLING SHOWERS VERY WELL
PER CURRENT RADAR AS THE MODEL DOES NOT HAVE THEM IN CARTER AND
POWDER RIVER COUNTIES. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY BASED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
CLOUDS WERE DUE TO LIFT FROM THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF UPPER JET.
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH BACKDOOR FRONT
EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAJORITY OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
AREA AFTER 18Z. ARTHUR
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...
MILD AUTUMN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH THE WARMEST AIR AND
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S F IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY
WHERE WINDS WILL TAKE ON A WESTERLY COMPONENT FOR A WHILE. THAT IS
EXPECTED AS A MODEST NORTHWEST-FLOW SHORTWAVE PULLS A WEAK FRONTAL
ZONE EASTWARD...AIDING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN FAR SOUTHEAST MT DURING
THE MORNING TODAY.
THE FRONT WILL SLOSH BACK SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND HIGHS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER /THOUGH NOT COLD/ ON THURSDAY WITH EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AND
MORE CLOUD COVER...INCLUDING POSSIBLE STRATUS. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE BY THURSDAY EVENING WHEN
A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION. THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW
LIFTED INDICES OF 0 TO -2 C FROM LIVINGSTON TO SHERIDAN. WE MAY BE
IN LINE TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST IF THAT IS
A STEADY THEME FOR ANOTHER MODEL CYCLE OR TWO. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
PRIMARILY RELIED ON THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR THIS PACKAGE AS IT
HAS HAD MORE CONSISTENCY THAN THE GFS...AND ALSO SET THE TONE FOR
WHAT THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD. THE TWO MODELS ARE BASICALLY IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND DEPICTING SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY TRACKING NW TO SE ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY AND THEN CARVING
OUT A BROADER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY SATURDAY
EVENING AS MORE ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT NOT
THAT COLD AS THE AIR WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN.
MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE QUITE A BIT BY MONDAY WITH THE GFS
TRACKING A DECENT SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN BUT THE
ECMWF KEEPS THIS FEATURE MUCH FURTHER NORTH IN CANADA WITH ANTI-
CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILING OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. THE GFS THEN
TRANSITIONS TO A VERY FAST PROGRESSIVE FLOW OF SHORT WAVES WHILE
THE ECMWF INDICATES RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. AS MENTIONED ABOVE I
WILL RELY MAINLY ON THE ECMWF AT THIS POINT DUE TO RECENT
CONSISTENCY...BUT CONFIDENCE MOVING PAST THE WEEKEND IS RATHER
LOW. BT
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. NO AVIATION HAZARDS
ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL CEILINGS BETWEEN KMLS
AND KBHK EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SPRINKLES. BT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 076 046/062 043/066 046/069 045/059 041/058 043/059
0/B 01/E 20/B 02/B 22/W 11/B 11/N
LVM 076 042/065 039/068 043/066 038/056 037/056 038/057
0/B 02/W 10/U 04/B 32/W 21/B 11/N
HDN 077 043/067 042/067 044/072 043/061 039/059 041/063
0/B 01/B 31/B 02/B 32/W 21/B 11/N
MLS 069 040/063 042/065 046/072 043/062 039/059 038/062
1/B 00/B 22/W 11/U 11/B 21/B 11/N
4BQ 073 042/063 042/064 045/073 042/060 038/058 037/060
2/W 01/B 32/W 11/U 31/B 21/B 11/B
BHK 062 036/057 037/058 042/069 041/059 035/054 035/058
2/W 10/B 13/W 11/B 21/B 21/B 11/N
SHR 077 043/066 041/065 042/072 041/057 035/058 034/059
0/B 01/B 31/B 01/U 43/W 21/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1026 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1024 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
STRATOCU AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN NW ONTARIO MOVING BACK SOUTHEAST
INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN FCST AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHEAST AND IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HALLOCK-FOSSTON-PARK
RAPIDS LINE THIS AFTN. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND MID CLOUDS OVER SW
HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA MOVING SOUTHEAST AND THESE THICKER MID CLOUDS
MAY IMPACT FAR SOUTHWESTERN FCST AREA AS WELL THIS AFTN. RAP MODEL
WANTS TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS IN THIS BAND TO NEAR OUR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN FCST AREA INTO THIS EVE. DID KEEP DRY FOR NOW. IN
BETWEEN SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND LIKELY SOME HEAT DRIVEN STRATOCU. DID
DECREASE SKY COVER SOMEWHAT IN THIS DRY ZONE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BY MID MORNING AGAIN BUT NOT AS WINDY AS
PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WESTERLY THIS
MORNING AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO FORECAST FINALLY TO
BEGIN MOVING EAST TODAY. UPPER LOW SHOULD BE IN EASTERN CANADA BY
THU AFTERNOON. FLAT AND SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL MOVE EAST, AMPLIFY SOME THU/THU NIGHT, THEN SHIFT INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 84 HOURS.
LOW LEVEL FLOW FORECAST MORE OUT OF THE NORTH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
THAN THE NORTHWEST AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS.
POCKETS OF MOISTURE CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHWEST ONTARIO. PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL CANADA. SO WILL GO
FOR MORE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ZONES THROUGH FRI.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR TODAY AND COUPLE DEGREES LOWER FOR THU.
WENT COOLER NORTHEAST AND WARMER SOUTHWEST FRI.
WINDS AT 850 HPA BACK OFF AND DEPTH OF ADIABATIC LAYER DECREASES
UNDER 850 HPA. WOULD EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO BE UNDER 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES
SATURDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SOUTH
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY/WINDY AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND
925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO OVER 30 KTS. IT WILL BE MILD...WITH +8 TO
+11C AT 850 MB. THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE AREA BY
SUN WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD FOR
SUNDAY...GIVEN A WESTERLY SFC WIND COMPONENT BEHIND THE FRONT
BISECTING THE AREA.
QUITE A RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF
REMAINING MOST AMPLIFIED WITH ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...THE GFS MAINTAINING A MORE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
WITH A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND
THE GEM IN BETWEEN. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS TEMPS WILL STAY ON THE
MILD SIDE...WITH RAINFALL CHANCES DEPENDENT ON HOW THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN EVOLVES. GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY...THERE IS NOT
MUCH CONFIDENCE ON THESE DETAILS YET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS ABOUT 30 MILES WIDE EXTENDED FROM SOUTH OF
GRAFTON ND TO BJI. BAND WAS MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS. SOME
MVFR CIGS AROUND 17 HUNDRED FT WAS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONES.
EXPECT THE MVFR CIG TO REMAIN OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONES FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS WAS OVER MAN AND WAS MOVING SOUTH AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. THE CLOUD DECK HAS NOT MOVED OVER AN OBS SITE IN MAN BUT
SUSPECT CIGS TO BE AROUND 35 HUNDRED FT. EXPECT THE DECK TO MOVE
INTO MUCH OF NORTHWEST MN THIS MORNING AND MAY REMAIN MUCH OF THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A GFK TO BJI LINE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...HOPPES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1005 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. FRONTAL/BAROCLINIC ZONE OSCILLATES IN OUR
VICINITY FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WELCOMED CALMER ENVIRONMENT.
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER OUR WAY THIS AFTERNOON. AT 12Z THE
925 MB DEW POINT AT ILN WAS 5C...WHILE RNK STILL AT 12C. THE LOWER
CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER WEST VIRGINIA. HELD CEILINGS
THE LONGEST OVER THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS.
WITH A COOLER TONIGHT...TOUGH CALL ON VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN
DEEP VALLEYS. WILL REEVALUATE TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL RETURN LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY...AS A FRONT
MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS...ALONG WITH MULTIPLE WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...WILL TRIGGER ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN...THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS.
FOR CONSISTENCY...HAVE NOT MADE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO POPS AND/OR
WEATHER.
TWEAKED THE MAXT/MINT GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. PERIOD WILL START WITH
FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE LEANED HARD ON THE RAP DATA FOR THIS ISSUANCE OF THE TAFS.
GIVEN THE RECENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND THE POST CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT IFR STRATUS TO BEGIN FORMING OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS...EXCEPT TOWARDS
THE HTS AREA...AND LEFT IT OUT OF THIS TERMINAL. STRATUS MAY HAVE
A HARD TIME MIXING OUT AFTER THE SUN COMES UP...AND MAY NOT REACH
VFR CEILINGS AGAIN AT CERTAIN SITES UNTIL 16Z OR LATER.
THINK THE WIND WILL STAY UP AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT...SO WILL NOT
ADD VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO THE FORECAST ON THE FRONT END OF
THE TAFS.
VFR EXPECTED AFTER THE STRATUS MIXES OUT. CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AND WILL SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT BEFORE 06Z AT EKN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM THROUGH 18Z. HIGH AFTER.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: STRATUS TIMING COULD VARY. THERE IS A CHANCE
IT DOES NOT FORM AT ALL.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 10/08/14
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M H H M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L M M M H
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1132 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
UPDATED GRIDS MAINLY TO ADJUST POPS FOR THU. 12Z NAM IS A BIT
FASTER BRINGING IN PRECIP TOMORROW MORNING...ALSO HAS A BIT MORE
QPF AND IS COLDER FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THU. WILL DEAL WITH
THE IMPACTS IN THE AFTERNOON UPDATE. ROSE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
EXTENSIVE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY AS
MOISTURE FROM THE REMAINS OF SIMON SOUTH OF CA CONTINUES TO GET PICK
UP BY THE BROAD WESTERN U.S.UPPER TROF AND ADVECTED TO THE
NORTHEASTWARD. HAVE TO TO LOOK DOWN TO SOUTHERN AZ TO FIND MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THE CURRENT HOUR...AND THIS LOOKS RATHER
LIGHT IN AREA RADARS.
FOR TODAY...EXPECT TO SEE MORE OF THE SAME WITH CONTINUED HIGH
CLOUDINESS SPREADING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS MAY SERVE TO TAKE
A COUPLE DEGREES OFF TEMPERATURES TODAY...PARTICULARLY OUT WEST
WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL GET THICKER THROUGH THE DAY. NOT TOO
ENTHUSED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP
SATURATED LAYER VERY HIGH BASED. IN FACT...HIGH RES MODELS...HRRR
AND RAP KEEP FORECAST AREA PRECIPITATION FREE DURING THE DAY
TODAY...AND THIS COULD BE THE MORE ACCURATE SOLN. HOWEVER...MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THICKENING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY OUT
WEST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...AND NAM12 AND NSSL 4K WRF ALONG
WITH GFS SHOW SOME SPOTTY POPS THIS AFTERNOON. REMOVED POPS UNTIL
AFTER 18Z...THEN STARTED INTRODUCING THEM INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...A FEW OF WHICH MAY SPREAD OVER INTO THE
SOUTHEAST MTS TOWARDS 00Z. SHOWERS SHOULD BE HIGH BASED...AND NOT
TOO SURE THAT THERE WILL BE ANY THUNDER TODAY AS INSTABILITY LOOKS
RATHER MEAGER. HAVE LEFT ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT
THIS MAY BE PRETTY LOCALIZED AND MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG THE
CONTDVD.
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. REMAINS OF SIMON GET PICKED UP AND LIFTED
TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS NM AS THE TROF ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
ADVANCES TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS REGION TOWARDS THURS MORNING. GFS
LOOKS A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF OVERNIGHT AS IT IS THE MOST
GUNG HO SPREADING IT EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANGRES TOWARDS
12Z. ECMWF AND NAM12 ARE A LITTLE MORE RESERVED IN KEEPING THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION LONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. CAN`T RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER MOVING OFF INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT...AND
WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR BEGINNING
AROUND 09Z. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT LOOK FAIRLY
LIGHT. OF COURSE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE WEST FORK BURN COMPLEX FOR
RAINFALL...BUT THINK THAT RAINFALL RATES SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW
FLOODING THRESHOLDS. -KT
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
NOT MANY ADJUSTMENTS MADE DURING THE LONGER TERM WITH MAIN
METEOROLOGICAL ISSUE BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM REMNANTS OF SIMON FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES DURING THE LONGER TERM INCLUDE
TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOWERING SNOW LEVELS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
FORECAST MODELS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE
STILL PROJECTED TO NEAR ONE INCH AT TIMES FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS LATEST COMPUTER SIMULATIONS PLACE CLOSED UPPER
LOW/REMNANTS OF SIMON OVER FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA AT 12Z
THURSDAY...WITH SYSTEM PUSHING INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY 21Z
THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT BY 00Z
SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD BE NOTED OVER PRIMARILY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA DURING
THIS TIME-FRAME.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES AS WELL AS HIGHER ELEVATION ACCUMULATING
SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...IN ADDITION TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
PROJECT THAT TOTAL 24 TO 36 HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF EXCEEDING ONE INCH(WITH LOCALLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE)...ESPECIALLY OVER FAVORED EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST DISTRICT. AREA BURN SCARS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY
FOR HYDRO/FLASH FLOODING ISSUES. IN ADDITION...HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WILL ALSO BE MONITORED FOR HEAVIER SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL
DURING THE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TIME-FRAME.
ALSO...AS DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...METEOROLOGICAL
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT POTENTIAL UPPER SYSTEM IMPACTING
SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THIS
SYSTEM HAVING THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING LOWERING SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS
TIME-FRAME. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE FROM LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
IT APPEARS THAT BELOW SEASONAL MID-OCTOBER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE NOTED FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WARMER
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY NEXT WEEK THANKS TO BASICALLY DRY ZONAL
UPPER FLOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO...ESPECIALLY BY NEXT
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
MAIN AVN CONCERN IS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA...SPREADING FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS TONIGHT TO THE I-25
CORRIDOR THURSDAY MORNING...AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS CIGS FALL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF IFR-LIFR CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL GENERALLY BE MODERATE AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ISOLATED...SO THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE EXTENDED LOW
CIGS AND OCCASIONALLY LOWER VIS. FZG LEVELS WILL FALL TO ABOUT
10K FEET THU AFTERNOON. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
519 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS FOR THE WEEKEND...WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH FLOW BECOMING
MORE ZONAL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH IN THE UPSTATE. COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NC WILL BE
MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED BY AROUND 06Z AT
CAE. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR INDICATING SCATTERED CONVECTION IN
NORTHERN AL AND NORTHERN GA. LATEST NAM BUFKIT SHOWING MID-LEVEL
CAPPING TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING. HRRR 18Z RUN SHOWING LITTLE IF
ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WHILE SPC WRF 12Z
RUN SHOWING ONLY ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME WILL CONTINUE ONGOING FORECAST WITH POPS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT...NAM/SREF SUGGEST MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SO
FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MOS
CONSENSUS...ALTHOUGH WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY
WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL STALL TO OUR NORTH
ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER. MODELS HAVE BOTH BEEN TRENDING TOWARD WARMER
MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND LOWER POPS SO WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT LOW IMPACT THREAT FOR TERMINALS.
WINDS WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS...A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. LAMP GUIDANCE AND
MET MOS SUGGEST SOME FOG POSSIBLE AT AGS/OGB BUT EXPECT SOME WIND
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEHIND FRONT SO WILL GO WITH A VFR FORECAST
THROUGH PERIOD.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
337 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
JUST AS SHORT TERM MODELS HAD BEEN PROJECTING...INSTABILITY AXIS
PER SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS SET UP FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH WEST
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THEN THROUGH MACON. THIS AXIS IS CHARACTERIZED
BY CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2500 J/KG AND 3000 J/KG AND HAS BEEN
SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FOLLOWING THE BOUNDARY THAT WAS SPAWNED
FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION. SHORT TERM REFLECTIVITY MODELS HAVE
REALLY BACKED OFF ON POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
CENTRAL GEORGIA LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE HRRR ONLY SHOWING
HINTS OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW. DESPITE THIS...STICKING WITH LOW
END CHANCE IN THE GRIDS GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY AXIS AS
WELL AS BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD ACT AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM AFTER
21Z. ONLY ITEM MISSING IS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND IN FACT WE ARE
IN AN AREA OF GENERALLY DOWNWARD MOTION THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE
OF MORNING DISTURBANCE BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE NEUTRAL IN NATURE BY
THIS EVENING.
LESS MOISTURE NOTED IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR TONIGHT SO MODELS NOT
PEGGING NEAR AS MUCH ON LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL. THERE IS SOME GROUND
MOISTURE MODELS ARE TRYING TO RESOLVE SO THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE
PATCHY FOG TO DEAL WITH OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
TWO MORE DISTURBANCES IN STORE FOR THURSDAY...THE FIRST LOOKS TO
BE IN THE MORNING AND REMAINING LARGELY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SO EXPECTING LIMITED IMPACTS FROM THAT ONE. THE SECOND MOVES
THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND SPAN MOST OF THE STATE PER THE GFS SO
A LITTLE BETTER CHANCES WITH THAT ONE ALTHOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY AT BEST.
DEESE
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED STARTS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BUT WITH DEEPENING
SHORTWAVE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...SPREADING PACIFIC TROPICAL
MOISTURE EAST TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. LOOKS LIKE A
PROLONGED WET PERIOD TO OUR NORTH BUT FOR NOW ONLY MINOR IMPACTS
IN NORTH GEORGIA. OVER THE WEEKEND...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES SLIDES EAST AND DAMS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HARD TO TELL
AT THIS POINT HOW FAR SOUTH THAT DAMMING WILL EXTEND BUT IT COULD
ACTUALLY BE KIND OF COOL AND CLOUDY ON SUNDAY WITH THE HYBRID
DAMMING. GFS A LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE FOR THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEK...
TRENDING A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF BUT STILL NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG. ECMWF CONTINUES TO PUSH A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH A STRONG FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS NOT AS STRONG AND QUITE A BIT FASTER...
WITH THE FRONT PROGGED TO AFFECT US MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY SO NO CHANGES TO THAT PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED AT THIS TIME. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO 4TH AND 5TH PERIODS TO
REFRESH WITH NEW DATA. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
TDP
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2014/
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST TRENDS AS THE LATEST
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUN REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW STARTS OUT FAIRLY FLAT
AND REMAINS SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
TO SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD
CONCERNING THE DEPTH AND SHARPNESS OF THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF
THE PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER BOTH SHOW OUR REGION
COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WITH GEORGIA JUST SOUTH OF THE MORE ACTIVE
WESTERLY FLOW...BOTH MODELS KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EVEN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREAD INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA...
BETTER CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH.
MODEL INSTABILITY VARIES SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT EACH DAY
SHOWS AT LEAST MARGINAL VALUES UNTIL AROUND WEDNESDAY SO I HAVE KEPT
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
20
&&
AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
BOUNDARY THAT FORMED IN THE WAKE OF NORTH GEORGIA THUNDERSTORMS
NOW PRODUCING A LINE OF MVFR CIGS OVER WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
NOW AFFECTING THE ATL TERMINAL. THIS WILL REQUIRE A SHORT TERM
TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE REMAINING ALT AREA TERMINALS. SHRA POSSIBLE FOR MCN AND CSG
THIS EVENING AND HAVE INCLUDE TEMPO THERE BUT LEFT OUT TSRA FOR
NOW. OTHERWISE...VFR FORECAST IN STORE BUT ADDITIONAL STORMS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TSRA THREAT FOR THE SOUTH.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 58 85 61 82 / 10 5 20 20
ATLANTA 65 84 65 82 / 20 30 20 20
BLAIRSVILLE 53 78 56 78 / 5 20 20 30
CARTERSVILLE 58 86 61 83 / 10 20 20 30
COLUMBUS 66 89 65 87 / 30 5 10 10
GAINESVILLE 60 82 62 80 / 10 20 20 30
MACON 63 88 64 86 / 30 20 40 10
ROME 58 86 60 84 / 20 30 20 30
PEACHTREE CITY 59 85 60 83 / 20 30 30 20
VIDALIA 67 89 67 86 / 30 5 10 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
350 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
254 PM CDT
SYNOPSIS...RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AND SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH
TOMORROW. THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S. THEN THE PATTERN TURNS A BIT BUSIER WITH
MULTIPLE CHANCES OF SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY AND GOING THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO FINALLY SHIFTS EAST INTO QUEBEC
TONIGHT AND THEN CONTINUES NORTH ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO
SHIFT. WE REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LEADING TO A DRY DAY TODAY.
PRECIP MOVES IN OVERNIGHT FROM THE NW AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
MOVED POPS WELL NORTH SO THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. THE
12Z MODEL RUNS WERE MORE ROBUST WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND THE
FEATURE LINES UP RATHER WELL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JETS RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS FEATURE A LOT OF OMEGA SO THINKING
SHOWERS WILL FORM DESPITE THE DRIER LOW LEVELS. AREAS NORTH OF I-80
SHOULD BE DRY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING SOUTH OF
I-80. THE GOOD NEWS IS...THE DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS SO EXPECTING LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH NORTH OF I-80. WITH
MORE PERSISTENT RAIN EXTENDING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THINKING
RAINFALL SOUTH OF I-80 WILL BE A BIT MORE ROBUST IN THE 0.15-0.25
RANGE.
THE WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN IL THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE RAIN WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT.
FOR TEMPS...KEPT TONIGHT/S LOW TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOOKING AT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S
ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH OF I-80. CLOUD
COVER COMBINED WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S TOMORROW. THURSDAY NIGHT/S LOW WILL ALL BE BASED
ON CLOUD COVER AND FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE. OUTLYING AREAS NORTH OF
I-80 WILL COOL INTO THE MID 30S DUE TO CLEAR SKIES...WHILE AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S DUE TO CLOUD
COVER. FLOW WILL BE OFF OF THE LAKE SO AREAS ALONG THE LAKE WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THE FINAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BUT THEN QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OVER THE NE COAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING.
LOOKING A DRY END TO THIS WEEK AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. HAVE RAIN
SHIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT AND WHAT I
HAVE IN THE FORECAST MAY STILL BE TOO FAST AS THE MODELS KEEP
SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN. COULD SEE SOME FROST FRIDAY NIGHT DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH SKIES CLEAR. LOWS WEST OF A WOODSTOCK TO JOLIET LINE
WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO LOWER 30S...WITH SHELTERED AREAS POSSIBLY
GETTING CLOSE TO FREEZING. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE.
THE OTHER AREAS WILL BE AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE LAKE.
EXTENDED...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE EXACT TIMING BUT
IT LOOKS LIKE THE TROUGH WILL PASS OVERHEAD TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SURGES NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH RAIN EXPECTED
SUNDAY. COULD SEE A DRY BREAK IN THE EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN MOVING IN MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW. EXPECTING MORE RAINFALL ON MONDAY THAN SUNDAY RIGHT
NOW. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE NEXT SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH
THE LOW AND RAIN EAST...SO KEPT CHANCE POPS IN ON TUESDAY EVEN
THOUGH IT COULD BE DRY.
FOR TEMPS...STILL LOOKING BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 FARTHER SOUTH. TEMPS REACH NORMAL MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND REMAINING IN THE 60S THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE TO AROUND NORMAL IN THE 40S.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* GUSTY WEST WINDS TO NEAR 30 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
* RAIN MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS
THURSDAY.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
GOOD MIXING RESULTING IN SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND
GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KT BUT GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S. CURRENT TAFS
REFLECTING A GENERAL AVERAGE OF THE EXPECTED WINDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE A WAVE OF RAIN COMING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THERE
WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WITH THE
STRONGER PRECIP AXIS EXPECTED ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN
TERMINALS. EXPECT AT LEAST A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND AT LEAST VIRGA FALLING OUT OF THE MID DECK
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS IN THE MID 20S THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE MID AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP AT ORD EARLY THURSDAY...MEDIUM
AT MDW.
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CHC SHRA.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
349 PM CDT
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND
MERGE WITH WEAKER LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY STRONG LOW OF 28.9 INCHES TO THE EAST OF
JAMES BAY BY THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY
TRACK EASTWARD. A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN RESULTING IN 25-30 KT WINDS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF
THE LAKE. AS THINGS PROGRESS EAST THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WHILE REMAINING STRONG TO THE NORTH. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO EASE SOUTH BUT LIKELY CONTINUE TO GUST TO 30 KT
ACROSS THE NORTH. WIND SPEEDS WILL EASE AND TURN NORTHERLY THURSDAY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE AS THE HIGH APPROACHES. THE HIGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD BY SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST SUNDAY. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL THEN BRING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
OR MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS SETTING UP AHEAD OF IT. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED ACROSS THE AREA INTO TUESDAY TURNING WINDS
NORTHERLY. CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE PATTERN EVOLVES BEYOND THAT IS LOW
WITH MIXED SIGNALS FROM MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
313 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
High pressure this evening will keep the winds light and somewhat
variable...though two systems converging on the Midwest bringing
some small chances of precip after midnight and into the morning
hours. Starting with clear skies tonight and slowly clouding up as
moisture and next chances for precip pushes into the region from the
SW. Northeastern CWA under clear skies longer and slightly cooler
as a result. In addition to the energy and moisture from the
SW...another wave moving into the area from the northwest. For a
few runs, operational models, specifically the NAM and the GFS have
divided up the precip... and so far the HRRR is trending the same
way. Wave to the NW seems to be producing precip a couple hours
sooner than the SWrn push, but either way...chances increasing into
the early morning hours.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
A complex, evolving upper level weather pattern and the proximity of
a nearly stationary frontal boundary near the Ohio Valley has led to
quite a bit of disagreement in the short and medium range models and
a lower than normal level of confidence in the forecast specifics
for the rest of this week and into early next week.
Complicating things initially are the remnants of Tropical Storm
Simon, which is currently in southern CA. The upper air network is
rather sparse in that area, so the models may be having a hard time
trying to initially latch onto the moisture associated with this
system. The GFS and NAM indicate that during much of Thursday,
isentropic lift should provide the ingredients for widespread
showers and a few thunderstorms. As the upper level forcing with
tropical storm remnants approaches late Thursday into Friday, most
of the lift appears to be focusing farther south toward the nearly
stalled out front. As a result, will keep the higher PoPs south of
Jacksonville-Mattoon-Paris line into Friday. The NAM and GFS may be
a bit overdone with the residual tropical moisture, so scaled back a
bit from the models on precipitation amounts for Thursday night into
Friday. There appears there could be a rather sharp cutoff on the
northern edge of the precipitation for Friday, and followed the
consensus of I-72 and east toward Danville for this line.
With respect to the upper level pattern for early in the weekend,
the GFS and European are not too far off by indicating the flow
backing from westerly to southwesterly. This will bring several
waves of low pressure up the front, but there are differences as to
the speed and location of these systems by Sunday into early next
week. For now will go with an extended period of showers from late
Saturday into Monday. With the progressive nature of the upper level
pattern, will tend to lean a bit more toward the GFS regarding the
ending of the rain by late Monday-very early Tuesday, instead of
continuing the rain all day Tuesday like the European model.
As would be expected with a cloudy and rather rainy forecast, will
keep temperatures below seasonal normals into early next week. A
transition to more of a zonal upper level flow pattern should result
in a trend toward more normal temperatures by the middle of next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
High pressure remains in control with light flow over the
region...increasingly westerly as the afternoon progresses...then
light and somewhat variable in the overnight as a gap in the
pressure gradient moves overhead and sfc decouples. Issues after
midnight as quick wave diving in from the NW progged to run into
some remnant moisture. UA analysis and sat data a little lax on
the moisture advection at this point. Concern for more scattered
nature of precip...and keeping to VCSH in PIA and BMI... and -SHRA in
CMI and in the south to better reflect the split in the shower
activity in both the GFS and the NAM...and hinted in the evolution
of the HRRR.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
216 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP HF ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND THE REMNANTS OF SIMON MOVING OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THE THE SURFACE A STALLED FRONT
EXTENDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT EAST OF THIS FRONT HAS HELPED TEMPS
WARM TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S DESPITE LINGERING CLOUD COVER.
TONIGHT...WITH MOISTURE POOLING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE IN OUR
WEST/SOUTHWEST AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST FOG MAY
BEGIN TO DEVELOP. COMPLICATION WILL BE LINGERING AND REDEVELOPING
STRATUS...WHICH COULD LIMIT LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYER..AND WITH UPWARD
MOTION GENERALLY FAVORED BY 12Z AS SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW WE
MAY BE TO WELL MIXED FOR MORE THAN STRATUS OR JUST LIGHT FOG. I KEPT
PATCH FOG MENTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH RIGHT NOW.
THURSDAY...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE COULD
SUPPORT DRIZZLE AS EARLY AS SUNRISE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. MODEL
SOUNDINGS REALLY DO NOT START TO SHOW BETTER MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE UNTIL MIDDAY AS REMNANTS OF SIMON MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS CLOSED 700MB LOW AND
STRONG JET STREAK MOVING IN FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR DEFORMATION BAND
OF PRECIP TO SET UP OVER I-70 CORRIDOR OR SOUTH BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AND COUPLED WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AND TROPICAL
MOISTURE WE COULD START TO SEE STEADY SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 18Z. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE AND WHILE I TRENDED POPS UP IM HESITANT TO GO TOO HIGH
UNTIL WE SEE BETTER RUN-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR ONSET THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. CERTAINLY GOOD PRECIP SIGNAL IN CURRENT GUIDANCE...AND
WITH UNSEASONABLY HIGH PWAT VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL AIR
MASS MAIN PRECIP BAND COULD BE VERY EFFICIENT. MODELS GENERALLY
SHOW LOCATION OF HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER WITH TRACK OF H7 LOW AND POSSIBLE
DEFORMATION/OVERRUNNING EVENT I COULD SEE THESE AMOUNTS SHIFTING
FURTHER NORTH.
WITH FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND CLOUD COVER/PRECIP THERE MAIN BE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL WARMING. I TRENDED HIGHS DOWN FRIDAY TO
THE 60-65F RANGE...AND COULD SEE THIS STILL BEING TOO COOL IF THERE
ISNT A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER BEFORE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP MOVES INTO
REGION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
A TROUGH WILL BB OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AND THEN SHIFT EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
PLAN TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER OVER
THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN 7H LOW MOVES
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE. POPS WILL
DECREASE TO CHANCE IN THE WESTERN FA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BEST
MOISTURE MOVES EAST. THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS START MOVING MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS OUT OF THE FA FRIDAY EVENING. POPS FRIDAY EVENING WILL
RANGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE DECREASING TO NIL POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BENEFICIAL RAINFALL SHOULD BE REALIZED FROM THIS EVENT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1 INCH. SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE INTO
THE FA BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH WITH NIL POPS CONTINUING SATURDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL COOL TO THE MID 40S AND TO
AROUND 40 FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S
FRIDAY AND THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY.
IN THE EXTENDED...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SUBSIDENCE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN NIL POPS.
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
MONDAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE INTO THE FA BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.
POPS WILL BE NIL MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY
WARMING TO THE LOWER 70S THURSDAY/FRIDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT WARMING TO THE
MID 40S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2014
1500-3000KFT STRATUS DECK ALONG THE KS/CO STATE LINE WILL CONTINUE
TO ERODE...AND WHILE CIGS MAY BE VARIABLE THROUGH AROUND 18Z VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY TAF PERIODS.
FOG/STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH WOULD IMPACT KGLD. STILL NOT CONFIDENCE
ON FOG COVERAGE CIGS HEIGHTS YET. I KEPT SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH IS IN LINE WITH MOST GUIDANCE IN THE MVFR
RANGE. PATTERN DOES SEEM TO SUPPORT POSSIBLE IFR
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER PROBABILITIES ARE LOW BASED ON CURRENTLY
GUIDANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE A SITUATION WHERE STRATUS LINGERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY THURSDAY WITH BREAKS AROUND MIDDAY. KMCK
APPEARS TO REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH BETTER
CHANCES TO SEE LOW STRATUS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
315 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN IN A COOL PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS
THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER FAR NE ONTARIO...WHICH WILL BE
MOVING INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT...MAINTAINS THE WNW TO NW FLOW OVER THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE GUSTY WNW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT...BUT STILL
REMAIN ABOUT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES FROM DRAMATICALLY DROPPING. WHILE MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON...MODEL RH FIELDS AND
SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THE LARGE AREA OF OVC LOW CLOUD COVER IN
NW ONTARIO AND NE MANITOBA WILL SWING INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA TO
REFLECT THIS. THE CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL HELP
BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES...SO THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ACROSS OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER...IF THE CLOUD COVER DOES NOT
MATERIALIZE...MAY NEED TO DECREASE THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THURSDAY LOOKS PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S
TO NEAR 50 DEGREES. THERE WILL BE NW WINDS OF ABOUT 5 TO 15 MPH.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
INTO THE NORTHLAND.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET EARLY...WITH A CHANCE
FOR RAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...AND PASS EAST
AND SOUTH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH WILL KEEP THE NORTHLAND MAINLY
DRY. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE SNOWBELT OF ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE COLUMN IS RELATIVELY DRY SO WE DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION.
THE FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. WE FOLLOWED THE SLOWER ECMWF AND DELAYED ANY PRECIP ACROSS
OUR CWA UNTIL SUNDAY. AN UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
A SOUTHERN WAVE WILL DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW MONDAY AND TRACK IT
NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LOOKS UNLIKELY ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND.
WE MAY BE ABLE TO PULL POPS LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR MOST AREAS IF
THE ECMWF VERIFIES...IT IT LOOKING DRIER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT FROM THE MID FORTIES TO LOWER
FIFTIES FRIDAY...AND WARM MAINLY INTO THE FIFTIES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
MVFR CEILINGS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH
SCATTERED CLOUDS FROM 3KFT TO 5KFT CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THE MVFR
CEILINGS OVER THE NORTH WERE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF THINNING...BUT
WE EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS TO REMAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOWER STRATUS WAS MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH
ONTARIO AND MANITOBA TOWARD NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WE HAVE BROUGHT
THESE CLOUDS INTO KINL/KHIB TONIGHT...AND AS FAR SOUTH AS KDLH IN
A TEMPO GROUP. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR SOUTH THESE
LOWER CEILINGS WILL GET...BUT THE RAP AND EVEN THE 12Z NAM DO SHOW
AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL RH TONIGHT. LATER UPDATES WILL BE ABLE TO
BETTER DEPICT THESE LOWER CEILINGS AND THEY PROGRESS TOWARD THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE SO
EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 32 48 32 48 / 0 0 0 0
INL 33 45 33 47 / 10 10 0 0
BRD 30 50 29 52 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 31 51 27 53 / 0 0 0 0
ASX 34 50 34 51 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ121-146>148.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1239 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
VERTICALLY STACKED SFC/UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A
DEEP CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. SAT
ANIMATION SHOWS A SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WITH A
DECREASE IN THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE SWRN CWA. UPPER JET
AXIS STRETCHES FROM ERN SASK INTO NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. AREAS THAT
HAVE A DECOUPLED BDRY LYR HAVE RADIATED INTO LOW TO MID 30S. CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO FORM IN LINEAR BANDS WITHIN FAST FLOW ALOFT WITH BASES
LOWEST OVER ARROWHEAD WHERE AT LEAST SOME PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...ANOMALOUS CIRCULATION CENTER OVER ONTARIO
WILL ADVECT EAST NORTHEAST INTO NRN QUEBEC THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
CONVERGENCE ALOFT WILL INCREASE FROM NRN PLAINS INTO UPPER MIDWEST
AS MID LVL RIDGING DEVELOPS. A SFC HIGH WILL RIDGE SOUTHEAST FROM
WRN CANADA INTO THE CWA. SIMULTANEOUSLY DEEP LAYER DRYING WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA EXCEPT A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE
ARROWHEAD THIS MORNING. DEEPENING MIXED LAYER TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL RESULT INS GUSTY WINDS. THIS IS INDICATED WITHIN BUFKIT
MOMENTUM PROFILES AND VARIOUS SNDGS. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY AND TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S...BUT
WILL WARM INTO THE 50S ON SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN
CARVE ITSELF OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND...IT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BACK INTO THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE
PRECIPITATION AND THE AMOUNTS. THE GFS IS FASTER...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GEM HOLD THE PRECIPITATION OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WE
HAVE FOLLOWED A COMPROMISE SOLUTION...FAVORING SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS A GREAT DEAL OF MODEL DIFFERENCE EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...WITH THE
GFS BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS ALSO QUITE DIFFERENT AMONGST THE MODELS
LENDING TO FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION. HIGHS
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
MVFR CEILINGS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH
SCATTERED CLOUDS FROM 3KFT TO 5KFT CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THE MVFR
CEILINGS OVER THE NORTH WERE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF THINNING...BUT
WE EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS TO REMAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOWER STRATUS WAS MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH
ONTARIO AND MANITOBA TOWARD NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WE HAVE BROUGHT
THESE CLOUDS INTO KINL/KHIB TONIGHT...AND AS FAR SOUTH AS KDLH IN
A TEMPO GROUP. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR SOUTH THESE
LOWER CEILINGS WILL GET...BUT THE RAP AND EVEN THE 12Z NAM DO SHOW
AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL RH TONIGHT. LATER UPDATES WILL BE ABLE TO
BETTER DEPICT THESE LOWER CEILINGS AND THEY PROGRESS TOWARD THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE SO
EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 47 33 48 33 / 0 0 0 0
INL 45 34 46 33 / 10 10 10 0
BRD 51 32 50 31 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 50 31 51 31 / 0 0 0 0
ASX 49 35 50 34 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ146-147.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-
145-148.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAP
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
923 AM PDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE
REGION TODAY AND INTERACT WITH REMNANT MOISTURE FROM A DECAYING
TROPICAL SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER MOHAVE COUNTY ON THURSDAY BEFORE DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...RECENT RADAR LOOPS SHOWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AROUND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FROM COTTONWOOD COVE TO
LAKE HAVASU AND AREAS TO THE EAST OVER MOHAVE COUNTY. THIS MATCHES
FAIRLY WELL WITH THE INHERITED POP/WX GRIDS BUT AN UPDATE WAS MADE
TO TRIM CLOUDS AND POPS GOING TOWARD TWENTYNINE PALMS WHERE IT WAS
MOSTLY CLEAR. THE 12Z GFS AND LATEST HRRR SUPPORT THE REST OF THE
FORECAST TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ANY SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
155 AM PDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...RADAR SHOWS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MOHAVE AND FAR NE CLARK COUNTY THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER PER
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS AND HAS BEEN LARGELY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEST. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WE WILL BE PRIMARILY DEALING WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND ITS INTERACTION WITH
MOISTURE FROM A DECAYING TROPICAL SYSTEM. SOUTHERN SAN BERNARDINO
AND MOHAVE COUNTIES CONTINUE TO BE WHERE MODELS FORECAST THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE AREAS FURTHER WEST AND
NORTH WILL EITHER REMAIN DRY OR AT BEST...SEE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MODEL QPF FORECASTS GENERATE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITHIN THE DEEPER MOISTURE POOL OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA WITH THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE PUSH JUST BRUSHING BY THE SOUTHEAST CWA. THIS
WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WITHIN THE
FORECAST AREA. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY CALLS FOR
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/MOJAVE DESERT WILL LIE UNDER A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
WITH THE HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL STATES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH WILL HAVE SOME
BEARING ON OUR WEATHER. A DEEPER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO STRONG NORTH
BREEZES SUNDAY/MONDAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. LESS
AMPLIFIED SOLUTION MEANS LITTLE CHANGE. INHERITED TEMPERATURE AND
WIND FORECAST LOOKS FINE SO MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE.
BY DAY 7 (TUESDAY) MODELS START TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN. PROXIMITY OF STRONG WESTERLY JET POSITIONED TO OUR NORTHERN
ACROSS OREGON/IDAHO COULD START GENERATING STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT NORTHEAST-EAST WIND IN THE
AFTERNOON. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15 KFT THROUGH THE DAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WIND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY. REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM A DECAYING TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHERN
SAN BERNARDINO AND MOHAVE COUNTIES THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-40.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ADAIR
PREV DISCUSSION...SALMEN/PIERCE
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
233 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR ON NORTHEAST
WINDS FOR THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW INTO FRIDAY AND THEN
MOVE OFF THE COAST BY THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A RETURN TO WARMER AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE STALLING AND MOVING BACK TO
THE NORTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A WEAK
IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
NO CONVECTION HAS YET TO DEVELOP EVEN WITH PEAK HEATING UNDERWAY.
A COLD FRONT WAS STILL NEAR THE VIRGINIA-NORTH CAROLINA BORDER
AND ALONG THE TENNESSEE APPALACHIANS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
A BETTER SOUTHERLY PUSH TONIGHT AND SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK. A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW AND A RATHER DRY
COLUMN WILL CONTINUE TO GREATLY INHIBIT CONVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THIS EVE GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST A
FEW MORE HOURS WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES AROUND 1300 J/KG. THE
DRY AIR AND INVERTED V SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY
DEEPER CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP...HOWEVER...THE PROSPECTS
FOR DEEP CONVECTION ARE VERY REMOTE.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAD A COUPLE LOCATIONS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
OF 90 DEGREES AT MID AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NO RECORD HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL...NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS DATE ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER
70S...SO AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON FOR SURE. MOST OF THE
BEACHES WILL STABILIZE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SEABREEZE REMAINS PINNED TO THE COAST GIVEN
THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TONIGHT...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST ZONES
NEAR THE MIDNIGHT HOUR AND SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE FRONT WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
AND MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS. LOWS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ALTHOUGH
SOME OF THE BEACHES MAY HANG ONTO MID 60S. BEHIND THE FRONT...
DEWPOINTS WILL FALL FROM THE MID AND UPPER 60S TO THE 50S. A FEW
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S MAY SNEAK INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
ZONES BY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH EMANATING FROM GREAT LAKES TROUGHING AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD FRONTAL
ZONE WILL EXTEND FROM WESTERN TEXAS ACROSS THE DELMARVA. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POPS CREEPING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A DECENT JET MAX TRAVERSING THIS AREA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND I DID FEEL INCLINED TO ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERNMOST ZONES LATE. THIS MATCHES
ADJACENT OFFICES A LITTLE BETTER AS WELL. I CERTAINLY DO NOT EXPECT
A FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL WASHOUT BY ANY STRETCH. REGARDING
TEMPERATURES...ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ARE NECESSARY MAINLY TO
MATCH TRENDS OF GUIDANCE...SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR FRIDAY AM AND WARMER
FOR SATURDAY AM VIA MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE
EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD. HOW FAR SOUTH IT SAGS TO DETERMINE
PRECIP CHANCES AND THE DEVIATIONS FROM THE OTHERWISE WARM-TRENDING
LONG TERM. HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GETS WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW
MUCH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GETS FORTIFIED BY THE
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH AND NORTHERN
BRANCH DISTURBANCE EXITING NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THIS DISTURBANCE IS
ALREADY MOVING OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY SO TOO SHOULD THE CONFLUENCE.
THUS IT SEEMS THAT THE FARTHEST SOUTH GFS SOLUTION IS LIKELY
ERRONEOUS EVEN THOUGH IT HAS SOME SUPPORT BY THE CANADIAN MODEL. WPC
SFC PROGS RATHER SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE IN ADDITION TO SHOWING THE
BOUNDARY WASHING OUT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...AN APPEALING
COMPROMISE. SATURDAY THUS LOOKS WARM AND RAIN-FREE FOLLOWED BY A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN POPS AND A TEMPERING OF HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT
OTHERWISE STILL LOOK A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. INCREASING
AMPLITUDE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPING OFF EAST
COAST AND DEEP TROUGH DIGGING INTO MS VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME LATE DAY WEATHER ON TUESDAY
WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THE UPPER WAVE
MAY TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE
WRF MODEL IS MODESTLY ROBUST WITH CONVECTION BREAKING OUT AFTER 20Z.
THE HRRR MODEL ONLY SHOWS ONE OR TWO CELLS DEVELOPING IN OUR CWA.
WILL ADD VCSH TO THE FLO TAF...BUT THAT MAY BE A STRETCH.
TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION. ONLY WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH
IT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...MOST PROMINENT IN THE
MORNING AS THE INVERSION BREAKS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND THEN NE WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A BRIEF NE SURGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THU MORNING.
HOWEVER WINDS AND SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH HEADLINE CRITERIA.
HIGHEST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE 15 TO 20 KT WITH INFREQUENT
GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE
OUTERMOST WATERS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL START OFF A BIT CHOPPY
AS A DECENT NORTHEAST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL BE IN PLACE. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SEAS OF 2-4 FEET FOR A FEW HOURS. THE FLOW WILL
DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND
EVEN TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BY EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST BY DAYS END FRIDAY BUT HOVER AROUND TEN
KNOTS OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL DROP TO 1-2 FEET BY THIS TIME
AS WELL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF IF NOT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE PRESSURE
PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE QUITE WEAK-THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREFRONTAL REGIME AHEAD
OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY IS PROGGED BY SOME MODELS TO
CROSS PART OR ALL OF THE FORECAST ZONES OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO
A VEER TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. HOWEVER IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY
GIVEN THE PATTERN ALOFT THAT THIS FRONT EITHER ONLY CROSSES PART OF
THE REGION OR REMAINS TO OUR NORTH ALTOGETHER. NO REAL SWELLS GET
GENERATED SO SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE JUST A 2-3 FT WIND WAVE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...THE FULL MOON IS TODAY. LATEST INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THE CAPE FEAR RIVER IN DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON WILL BRIEFLY
NEAR COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND 10 PM TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...PREDICTED TIDAL DEPARTURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING HIGHER THAN
OBSERVED. WE WOULD NEED A DEPARTURE OF ABOUT 0.35 FT TO REACH
CRITERIA. GIVEN THIS REQUIRED DEPARTURE IS MUCH HIGHER THAN OBSERVED
DEPARTURES THIS MORNING AND EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PRIOR HIGH
TIDE LAST NIGHT...WILL HOLD OFF ON A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...BUT
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WATER LEVELS ALONG THE BEACHES WILL BE ELEVATED
THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COINCIDE WITH A MODEST
NORTHEAST SURGE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME...THE TIDE IS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED MINOR COASTAL FLOOD
THRESHOLDS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RJD/DL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
130 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR ON NORTHEAST
WINDS FOR THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW INTO FRIDAY AND THEN
MOVE OFF THE COAST BY THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A RETURN TO WARMER AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE STALLING AND MOVING BACK TO
THE NORTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM WEDNESDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE
EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. A COLD FRONT WAS STILL WELL
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA...ALONG THE VIRGINIA AND TENNESSEE
APPALACHIANS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A BETTER SOUTHERLY
PUSH TONIGHT AND SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE
DAYBREAK THU. A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW AND A RATHER DRY COLUMN WILL
SERVE TO GREATLY INHIBIT CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...STRONG INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS
TEMPS REACH THE MID AND UPPER 80S. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES SHOULD
BE UP AROUND 1500 J/KG. THE DRY AIR AND INVERTED V SOUNDINGS DO
SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY DEEPER CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP. WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE POPS TO JUST ABOVE THRESHOLD FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT THAT WHAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST AND CONFINED
TO VERY LATE IN THE DAY AND TONIGHT.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY OCTOBER ARE IN THE UPPER 70S...SO
WE WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...EVEN AT THE BEACHES WHICH WILL BE
COOLEST AS A SEABREEZE DEVELOPS...BUT REMAINS PINNED TO THE COAST
GIVEN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WE WILL HOWEVER BE SHORT OF ANY
RECORD HIGHS.
TONIGHT...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER BY DAYBREAK. THE FRONT WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR...BUT
MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS. LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
BEACHES MAY HANG ONTO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
OF THE AREA FIRST THING THURSDAY MORNING...DRIVEN BY CONFLUENCE
ALOFT IN A SPLIT FLOW REGIME. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THIS FEATURE...AND WHILE OVERALL CAA IS MINIMAL...TEMPS
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK...BUT HIGHS WILL
STILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH 80-83 COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY...BUT A DRY COLUMN
WILL ALLOW FOR A COOL NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING TO 60
OR BELOW AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. AS THE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER
OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY...500MB RIDGING BEGINS TO BLOSSOM FROM THE GULF
COAST...AND THE FRONT GETS PUSHED BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT. THE GFS SUGGESTS SOME PRECIP MAY OCCUR ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...BUT IT IS THE OUTLIER...AND LIMITED FORCING/DRY COLUMN
SUGGEST ANOTHER DRY DAY ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER FOR BOTH MAX/MIN THAN ON THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE UPCOMING
WKND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...AND THEN STALLS IN
THE VICINITY. A FEW DAYS AGO...IT APPEARED LIKELY THAT THIS FRONT
WOULD WORK INTO THE CWA BY LATE SATURDAY WHILE BEING DRIVEN BY A
NORTHERN STREAM VORTICITY LOBE PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
FEATURE THANKS TO A RAPIDLY BUILDING RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OF AN
ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH DIVING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. IT WILL BE A
BATTLE BETWEEN THIS BUILDING RIDGE AND THE SOUTHERN PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT. THE RIDGE TENDS TO WIN OUT IN THESE SCENARIOS...BUT THE
TIMING COULD BE JUST SLOW ENOUGH TO AT LEAST ALLOW FOR SOME
UNSETTLED WEATHER LOCALLY.
FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THE FRONT ALONG OR JUST NORTH
OF THE CWA SAT/SUN...BEFORE LIFTING IT BACK TO THE NORTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-LEVEL
PATTERN. THIS SUGGESTS THAT SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY LOCALLY BUT
WITH SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES...BUT WITH LIMITED QPF. DRYING WILL OCCUR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH. THE CLOUDS AND SOME
PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE
CLIMO...DURING THE WKND. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THE 6-10 DAY TEMP OUTLOOK FROM CPC IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE WITH NEARLY THE ENTIRE EASTERN SEABOARD COVERED IN A 70%
CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE
WRF MODEL IS MODESTLY ROBUST WITH CONVECTION BREAKING OUT AFTER 20Z.
THE HRRR MODEL ONLY SHOWS ONE OR TWO CELLS DEVELOPING IN OUR CWA.
WILL ADD VCSH TO THE FLO TAF...BUT THAT MAY BE A STRETCH.
TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION. ONLY WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH
IT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...MOST PROMINENT IN THE
MORNING AS THE INVERSION BREAKS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND THEN NE WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A BRIEF NE SURGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THU MORNING.
HOWEVER WINDS AND SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH HEADLINE CRITERIA.
HIGHEST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20
KT. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM 2 FT TODAY TO 3 TO 4 FT LATE
TONIGHT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OVER...OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE WATERS TO START THE PERIOD...WITH GUSTY NE WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND
IT THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. THESE NE WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST...WEAKENING THE
GRADIENT AND CAUSING WINDS TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE EAST AT 5-10 KTS BY
FRIDAY MORNING. ON FRIDAY...THIS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE AND
WINDS BECOME SWLY...STILL AT 5-10 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS INITIALLY WILL
BE 2-4 FT ON THE STRONGER NE WINDS...BUT WILL FALL BACK TO 1-3 FT
MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS THE WIND SPEEDS DECREASE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL WAVER JUST NORTH OF THE
WATERS DURING THE WKND...LEAVING PRIMARILY LIGHT S/SW WINDS...BUT A
BRIEF TURN TO THE WEST OR NW IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. SPEEDS WILL BE ONLY 5-10 KTS REGARDLESS
OF DIRECTION. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2-3 FT BOTH DAYS OF THE
WKND...WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE SE SWELL AND A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE
COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL/RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
109 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
NO FURTHER CHANGED NEEDED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1024 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
STRATOCU AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN NW ONTARIO MOVING BACK SOUTHEAST
INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN FCST AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHEAST AND IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HALLOCK-FOSSTON-PARK
RAPIDS LINE THIS AFTN. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND MID CLOUDS OVER SW
HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA MOVING SOUTHEAST AND THESE THICKER MID CLOUDS
MAY IMPACT FAR SOUTHWESTERN FCST AREA AS WELL THIS AFTN. RAP MODEL
WANTS TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS IN THIS BAND TO NEAR OUR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN FCST AREA INTO THIS EVE. DID KEEP DRY FOR NOW. IN
BETWEEN SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND LIKELY SOME HEAT DRIVEN STRATOCU. DID
DECREASE SKY COVER SOMEWHAT IN THIS DRY ZONE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BY MID MORNING AGAIN BUT NOT AS WINDY AS
PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WESTERLY THIS
MORNING AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO FORECAST FINALLY TO
BEGIN MOVING EAST TODAY. UPPER LOW SHOULD BE IN EASTERN CANADA BY
THU AFTERNOON. FLAT AND SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL MOVE EAST, AMPLIFY SOME THU/THU NIGHT, THEN SHIFT INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 84 HOURS.
LOW LEVEL FLOW FORECAST MORE OUT OF THE NORTH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
THAN THE NORTHWEST AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS.
POCKETS OF MOISTURE CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHWEST ONTARIO. PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL CANADA. SO WILL GO
FOR MORE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ZONES THROUGH FRI.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR TODAY AND COUPLE DEGREES LOWER FOR THU.
WENT COOLER NORTHEAST AND WARMER SOUTHWEST FRI.
WINDS AT 850 HPA BACK OFF AND DEPTH OF ADIABATIC LAYER DECREASES
UNDER 850 HPA. WOULD EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO BE UNDER 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES
SATURDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SOUTH
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY/WINDY AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND
925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO OVER 30 KTS. IT WILL BE MILD...WITH +8 TO
+11C AT 850 MB. THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE AREA BY
SUN WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD FOR
SUNDAY...GIVEN A WESTERLY SFC WIND COMPONENT BEHIND THE FRONT
BISECTING THE AREA.
QUITE A RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF
REMAINING MOST AMPLIFIED WITH ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...THE GFS MAINTAINING A MORE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
WITH A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND
THE GEM IN BETWEEN. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS TEMPS WILL STAY ON THE
MILD SIDE...WITH RAINFALL CHANCES DEPENDENT ON HOW THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN EVOLVES. GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY...THERE IS NOT
MUCH CONFIDENCE ON THESE DETAILS YET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014
CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE TO DEAL WITH AS THERE ARE BANDS OVER
NW MN AND IN CENTRAL ND. THE MN CLOUDS ARE LOWER BUT IT APPEARS THEY
WILL MAINLY STAY JUST NORTH AND EAST OF KBJI AND KTVF. HOWEVER THEY
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THEY WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS STREAMING INTO CENTRAL ND ARE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL SO THEY WILL NOT AFFECT THE KFAR TAF AT ALL. IN BETWEEN THESE
TWO AREAS KGFK AND KDVL SHOULD SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUDS.
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST UP TO ABOUT 20KTS IN SPOTS THRU THE
AFTERNOON THEN BECOME LIGHT PRETTY QUICKLY BY EARLY EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...GODON