Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/07/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
731 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ACTIVE 500MB PATTERN THROUGH TOMORROW FOR THE CWFA. CURRENTLY...A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN ALABAMA. THIS
FEATURE HAS HELPED TO FIRE/SUSTAIN CONVECTION THAT IS MOVING
INTO NW GA THIS EVENING AND TO STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SMALL
HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH EARLIER STORMS...AND ANTICIPATE
ADDITIONAL REPORTS AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH.
MODELS DO TYPICALLY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME LATCHING ONTO THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THESE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES. EARLIER RUNS
OF THE HRRR AND WRF DID NOT INITIALIZE VERY WELL. LATER RUNS OF
THE HRRR SEEM TO HAVE INITIALIZED A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE CURRENT
FEATURE...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON LATER CONVECTION EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
DID END UP TWEAKING POPS A BIT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS MODELS SHOW
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
THAT IS CURRENTLY ANCHORED DOWN THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.
A DISTURBANCE THAT SPARKED CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH GA THIS
MORNING HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD... BUT ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
THAT IS CURRENTLY SPARKING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW
MOVING BACK ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH GA... TO INCLUDE THE FAR NORTHERN
METRO AREA. LOCAL HIRES MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON ANY OF
THESE DISTURBANCES... BUT SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THIS LATEST
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH NE THIS EVENING... ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THAT COULD SPREAD MORE CONVECTION INTO NW GA
LATER TONIGHT. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY SPREAD
DOWN INTO THE ATLANTA AREA BY 9-10 AM TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE MODELS HINT AT THE DRIVING UPPER SUPPORT FINALLY
LIFTING OUT TO THE NE SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR INTO THE
EVENING. FOR NOW... WILL HOLD ONTO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL GA THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... WITH INCREASING CHANCES ACROSS NW GA
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE. WILL SPREAD THIS HIGHER
POP DOWN INTO NORTH ATLANTA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE LIFTING THE HIGHER POPS OUT LATE ON TUESDAY.
THEREFORE... EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM
ATLANTA AREA NORTHWARD FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY PUSHES EAST. THIS
DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT TO NEAR NORTH GA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... AND
WILL WARRANT HOLDING ONTO A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTH GA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
SAGS ALONG THE TN/GA STATE LINE BY 6-7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL... SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW A 5 PERCENT
CHANCE ACROSS PARTS OF NW GA INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH
INCREASING AFTERNOON CAPE AND MODERATE SHEAR VALUES AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES NOTED... JUST CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS... WITH LARGE HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER... MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN WELL UNDER
SEVER LIMITS WITH SMALL HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT INTO THE
EVENING. SPC IS HOLDING ONTO A 5 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS NW GA AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE LATER TONIGHT. HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE AS WELL...AND MAINLY ACROSS NW GA.
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER SEVERE LIMITS ACROSS THE ATLANTA METRO
AREA ON TUESDAY... BUT GENERAL THUNDER IS EXPECTED.
AS FOR TEMPS... A MAV AND MET BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD... WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS AND HIGHS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... THEN WARMER THAN NORMAL LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.
39
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT A WHOLE LOT IN THE WAY OF CHANGES FOR THE EXTENDED. THE ECMWF
ESPECIALLY IS LINGERING SOME MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING SO DID ADD SOME LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS /SHOWER WORDING ONLY/. OTHERWISE JUST A REFRESH OF DATA FOR
THE 4TH AND 5TH PERIODS...NEW BLENDS OF DEWPOINTS ARE A LITTLE
DRIER BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT. STILL SOME CONCERN ABOUT HOW WET THIS
WEEKEND MIGHT BE. ECMWF STILL KEEPS MOISTURE A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH AND THE 12Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON QPF VALUES BUT
OBVIOUSLY STILL TOO FAR OUT TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES. HAVE LEFT
POPS AT HIGH CHANCES FOR NOW. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
TDP
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014/
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN UNDERGOES A SIGNIFICANT DE-AMPLIFICATION AS WE
HEAD INTO THE THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH ESSENTIALLY ZONAL
FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE PERIOD. START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOKS MAINLY DRY BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOVE BACK IN BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AND STAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS IS TYPICAL WITH SUCH A FLAT
UPPER-LEVEL SCHEME...NO SIGNIFICANT FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO COME ALONG
BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK WAVES
RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. CENTRAL GEORGIA APPEARS MAINLY DRY
TO START THE PERIOD...BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SOME BY THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ONTO THE REGION. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH NOT SPECTACULAR...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO ACCOMPANY THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
AT THIS TIME THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR OR
INSTABILITY FOR MORE THAN GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FUTURE TRENDS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS BETTER SHEAR IS NOT TOO FAR NORTH OF THE
STATE AND LAPSE RATES DO STEEPEN A LITTLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
20
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN AL AND
NORTHERN GA. THIS FEATURE HAS HELPED TO FIRE AND SUSTAIN
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH. DO ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP TO REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF ATL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE
HAD A HARD TIME LATCHING ONTO THE MID LEVEL WAVES...SO CONFIDENCE
IS LOW-MED ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE 3KFT...BUT SOME
SCATTERED MVFR IS POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WRT CONVECTION. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 53 77 59 82 / 20 40 20 5
ATLANTA 58 78 63 81 / 30 40 20 5
BLAIRSVILLE 51 69 57 77 / 60 60 50 20
CARTERSVILLE 55 77 60 82 / 50 60 20 10
COLUMBUS 56 82 62 85 / 20 20 5 5
GAINESVILLE 56 74 61 79 / 40 50 30 5
MACON 53 82 61 86 / 10 20 5 5
ROME 55 77 58 83 / 60 60 20 5
PEACHTREE CITY 52 79 58 83 / 20 30 10 5
VIDALIA 55 84 62 85 / 5 10 5 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1002 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
341 PM CDT
OVERALL A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF THE
AREA THIS WEEK. THE LARGE UPPER LOW PARKED SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY THAT
USHERED IN ALL THIS COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WOBBLE AWAY TO
THE EAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND EVENTUALLY OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN ITS PRESENCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FELT...WITH THE AREA REMAINING JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
AVERAGE FOR EARLY TO MID OCTOBER. ADDITIONALLY...SHORTWAVES
SPINNING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
RAIN THIS WEEK...PRIMARILY TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW AND THEN
AGAIN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE ALOFT...A WEAK
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT SOME BRIEF SHOWERS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO LIMIT COOLING WITH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON THIS FEATURE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST...LEAVING COOL
WESTERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
BY DAYTIME THURSDAY A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES...BUT THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED BOTH BY MEAGER
MOISTURE TOWARD THE WISCONSIN LINE AS WELL AS SUBSIDENCE FROM A DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SETTLED
OVER THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR BUT TEMPERATURES COOL UNTIL THE
RETURN FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS FEATURE BEGINS TO SET UP LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY COMES AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THIS
MAY ALSO HOLD OFF TILL MONDAY.
LENNING
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* WEST WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST ARND 10-12KT THRU DAYBREAK TUE.
* POSSIBLE SPRINKLES/LGT SHOWERS AFT 12-16Z WITH SOME FEW010
CLOUDS.
* WEST WINDS MIDDAY WITH GUSTS NEARING 16-18KT THRU 02Z WED.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET...WITH THE MIXING
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AND WIND GUSTS DIMINISHING. THE GRADIENT
DOES REMAIN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WINDS FROM THE WEST TURNING
SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 10-12KT. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WAS SLIDING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS...AND IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS/INDIANA TUE MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE
INDICATING A FEW SPRINKLES/LGT SHOWERS MAY OVERSPREAD THE
AREA...HOWEVER HAVE OPTED TO HOLD MENTION OF THIS OUT OF THE
CURRENT TAF AS IT APPEARS THIS WOULD BE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS. WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE AROUND DAYBREAK TUE...SOME
LOWER CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AND MAY BRING SOME CLOUDS DOWN TO ARND
1KFT AGL. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS CIGS WILL REMAIN 5KFT AGL OR
HIGHER...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THIS MAY LOWER IF THE SYSTEM
TRACKS FURTHER NORTH THEN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THEN WINDS TURN
BACK WEST MIDDAY...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS RETURNING FROM BETTER
MIXING TO 16-18KT. THEN AFT SUNSET TUE EVENING THE MIXING WILL
DECREASE YET AGAIN WITH CLOUDS THINNING AS WELL AS WIND SPEEDS
DIMINISHING TO ARND 6-8KT.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED THRU MID-MORNING TUE.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP REMAINING FURTHER SOUTH OF
TERMINALS TUE MORNING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CIGS WILL REMAIN 5KFT OR HIGHER.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHC OF RAIN...PATCHY MVFR OR IFR WITH RAIN.
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...CHC OF RAIN IN THE EVENING.
SUNDAY...CHC OF RAIN.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
334 PM CDT
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...AS A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS SITUATED MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE STRONGEST
WINDS TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTH HALF...UNTIL THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS WHEN A WEAK TROUGH AXIS PUSHED THROUGH THE FAR PORTION OF
THE LAKE. THIS RESULTED IN A QUICK INCREASE IN SPEEDS UP TO 15 TO
25 KT AND EVEN GUSTS UP TO 30 KT OUT OF THE WEST SOUTHWEST.
ALTHOUGH THESE STRONGER WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ESPECIALLY FOR THE INDIANA SHORE...DO
THINK THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHT DIMINISHING TREND OVER THE NEXT
ONE TO TWO HOURS. WITH THIS QUICK INCREASE IN SPEEDS AND NOW WAVES
FOR THE INDIANA SHORE...DID START THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIANA SHORE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO OBSERVE
ANOTHER INCREASING TREND MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT...MAINTAINED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINING
AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ALL AREAS OVER THE LAKE
WILL OBSERVE THIS INCREASING TREND...WITH WINDS TO 30 KT LIKELY
TONIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...3 AM TUESDAY TO 10
AM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
733 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 733 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
Made some minor updates to the going forecast for tonight, mainly
to decrease thunder wording. Next short-wave embedded within broad
northwesterly flow pattern is currently streaking southeastward
out of the Northern Plains: however, this feature does not appear
to be as potent on water vapor imagery as the first system that
tracked across southern Illinois into the Ohio River Valley this
afternoon. 00z/7pm satellite/radar mosaic shows clouds and a few
light showers developing upstream across Nebraska into western
Iowa. 18z NAM and latest HRRR models both spread showers into
west-central Illinois by mid to late evening, then across the
remainder of the area overnight. Forecast soundings show ample
moistening aloft, but maintain dry layer near the surface. In
addition, mid-level lapse rates remain marginal for thunder. As a
result, have removed thunder entirely across the north and
included only isolated thunder along/south of a Rushville to
Robinson line overnight as this area will be closer to the track
of the 500mb vort max and strongest lift. Have also adjusted temps
to go with lows in the upper 40s to around 50 by midnight, with
steady or even slowly rising temps overnight as thicker clouds and
precip arrive.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
A weather disturbance has produced some isolated storms with small
hail south of a line from Taylorville to Mattoon this afternoon.
That train of showers and storms may linger into the early evening
south of I-70, before dissipating. Quickly on the heels of that
system will be a strong shortwave rolling out of the Plains. It is
expected to affect at least the southern half of IL tonight. Showers
appear likely SW of a line from Rushville to Shelbyville after
midnight, with rain chances extending across all of central and
southeast IL by morning. A few thunderstorms will be possible with
the overnight shortwave, as mid-level instability appears favorable
for stronger updrafts. Increasing clouds and steady S-SW winds will
help keep low temps warmer than last night, with readings in the low
50s south and around 50 north.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
A fast moving shortwave from late tonight will continue to trigger
showers Tuesday morning east of the Illinois River. A few
thunderstorms will be possible from the vigorous shortwave. Steep
lapse rates will help fuel stronger updrafts, pushing more moisture
above the freezing level. By afternoon, nearly all of the showers
should push into Indiana, leaving some clearing from west to east as
the dry mid-level air mixes into the cloud layer. Another period of
gusty west winds are on tap behind the weather disturbance, with
afternoon gusts of 20-30 mph. The afternoon sunshine will help push
high temps into the low 70s south of I-72, and in the upper 60s
north of I-72.
The long wave upper trough over the eastern CONUS will make gradual
progress eastward on Wednesday, allowing for plenty of sunshine and
another day of high temps near normal, in the upper 60s to low 70s.
West winds will be less gusty as high pressure builds into IL and
the pressure gradient weakens.
Wednesday night, a northern stream shortwave will merger with
southern stream energy to trigger showers starting later in the
evening southwest of Canton to Effingham, then expanding across the
remainder of our forecast area after midnight. As moisture from the
remnants of Pacific Storm Simon merges with the storm system on
Thursday into Thursday night, rainfall rates are likely to increase
across our southern counties, especially south of I-72.
There remains some agreement in the GFS and ECMWF that high pressure
will build into Illinois Friday and Friday night, providing a break
in the rainfall. Model differences show up after that, as the ECMWF
is more aggressive with southern stream waves pulling the stalled
frontal boundary north into Illinois, triggering several waves of
rain through the weekend and into early next week. The GFS keeps the
storm track south of IL, keeping our forecast area completely dry
until as late as Monday night. For now, we trended a little lower
with PoPs next weekend, and will hope for better agreement in the
coming model runs.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
Mostly clear skies prevail at the KILX terminals early this
evening: however, clouds are already beginning to increase across
west-central Illinois in advance of the next fast-moving weather
system. Models are in good agreement that showers will
develop/spread eastward overnight as an upper-level disturbance
tracks across the area. Forecast soundings all indicate ceilings
will remain in the VFR category with this system. Scattered
showers will depart the area Tuesday morning, with partial clearing
expected by afternoon. Winds will be W/SW early this evening, then
will become southerly overnight ahead of the approaching system.
Once the feature passes, winds will veer to the W/NW at 10 to 15kt
on Tuesday.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1114 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1112 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVING FROM CENTRAL AND INTO
EASTERN KY...THERE APPEARS TO BE A BACK EDGE TO THIS ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SHOULD WANE FROM WEST
TO EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A RELATIVE LULL IN ACTIVITY FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...CHANCES
WILL INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD SUNRISE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
UNSETTLED WEATHER DUE TO CONVECTIVE CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH
WORKING INTO THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE EVENING...IF NOT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT
IS ALSO DROPPING SOUTH TO NEAR THE OH RIVER AND GENERALLY SHOULD WASH
OUT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW WORKING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION IS LEADING TO CONTINUED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA AND EVEN SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOUISVILLE
VICINITY.
RECENT HRRR RUNS POINT TOWARD THE CURRENT BATCH OF CONVECTION
WORKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH OVER THE NEXT TWO THREE
HOURS...BUT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING THERE.
CONVECTION WORKING ACROSS CENTRAL KY MAY SURVIVE INTO THE NORTHERN
CWA NEAR INTERSTATE 64 AS WELL. WITH ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES
TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT...ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH WILL
PROBABLY EXPERIENCE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION PAST MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A RELATIVE LULL MAY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT...AFTER 2 AM...
BETWEEN THE UPPER DISTURBANCES.WITH TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS THEY
ARE ALOFT...HAIL... MOSTLY LIKELY SUB SEVERE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. TRAINING WILL
ALSO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION TAKES
PLACE HAS BEEN THE BIGGEST QUESTION TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AN ISSUE DURING THE PERIOD. IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO GET SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION TODAY FOR STRONG CONVECTION. A FEW STORMS HAVE GONE
THE EXTRA MILE AND PRODUCED SOME HAIL DUE TO FREEZING LEVELS ONLY
AROUND 8K FEET. WITH A FEW HOLES IN THE CLOUDS AND PEAK HEATING
OCCURRING...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO APPROACH. WILL LOOK FOR THE
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST TO MARCH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ALOFT ARE FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WITH BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR...BUT
INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK. THE SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED...WITH WATCHES/WARNINGS A POSSIBILITY IF ENOUGH LATE DAY
HEATING OCCURS. AFTER THIS CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THE NEXT MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR STORMS IS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER IMPULSE ALOFT APPROACHES. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH
DEVELOP CONVECTION. WHILE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...A BLEND OF RECENT GFS
AND NAM RUNS WOULD SUGGEST THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME BEING IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS PERSISTENT IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
ALONG A COLD FRONT AS IT ENTERS OUR AREA FROM THE NW ON TUESDAY
EVENING. THE GFS HAS NOT DEPICTED THIS. HAVE USED A POP GRADIENT FROM
NW TO SE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
SPENDING THE LONGEST TIME AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SEEING THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE FRONT BRINGS IN A STABLE
AIR MASS. SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL STILL EXIST FOR SEVERE STORMS ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. ONCE AGAIN...IF SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION CAN TAKE PLACE...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN. AT
THIS POINT...INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PRESENT BUT RATHER WEAK.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT...AT LEAST TO START THE
EXTENDED...BEFORE DIVERGING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEY ALL SHOW A
VERY DEEP AND LARGE MID LEVEL LOW SPINNING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.
A NODE OF THIS WILL BE SWEEPING NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT. AS
HEIGHTS SLOWLY START TO COME UP OVER KENTUCKY A SMALLER TROUGH WILL
BE MAKING ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY.
THIS WESTERN TROUGH WILL OPEN UP AND SEND IT ENERGY EAST INTO THE
FAST FLOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL...
THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LOW THAN THE GEM AND GFS.
THIS STRENGTH ALSO MANIFESTS ITSELF DOWNSTREAM OVER KENTUCKY AS A
BIT MORE RIDGING THROUGH THE WEEKEND THAN THE OTHERS. FOR
SUNDAY...THE GFS SEEMS MOST OUT OF STEP WITH ITS PATTERN COMPARED TO
THE OTHER MODELS AS IT HAS FLAT AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER KENTUCKY.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF...SUPPORTED BY THE GEM...STARTS TO BRING A FAST
MOVING AND QUICKLY DEEPENING TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL FURTHER CONSOLIDATE INTO MONDAY AS A DEEP LOW OVER THE MIDWEST
WITH A SWEEP OF ENERGY PRESSING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL FAVOR THE
MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND THEN LEAN MORE TOWARD
THE ECMWF FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL OCCUR AS AMPLE
MOISTURE...FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MEETS UP WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY
AND A COUPLE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL LIFT
INTO KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY
OVER THE AREA AS COLD AIR TO THE NORTH AND WARM TO THE SOUTH MAKES
FOR A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE STATE. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH AGAIN AS A BONA FIDE WARM FRONT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP SFC LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHER
PLAINS. THIS LATTER SYSTEM WILL THEN LOOK TO SWING ITS ELONGATED
COLD FRONT INTO THIS PART OF THE STATE LATER MONDAY. WITH THE
FORECAST AREA CAUGHT BETWEEN SEASONS THIS EXTENDED...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...BUT WITH A SMALLER THAN AVERAGE DIURNAL RANGE
DUE TO EXTRA CLOUDS AND PCPN AROUND.
THE CR GRID LOAD PROVED TO BE AN ADEQUATE START TO THE EXTENDED
GRIDS...THOUGH DID ADJUST THE POPS A TAD TOWARD THE DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTION FROM THE ECMWF THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. GIVEN
THE FRONTS NEARBY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIODS DID NOT DO TOO MUCH
ADJUSTING TO THE TEMPERATURES AS THE TERRAIN IMPACT WILL BE
RELATIVELY MUTED...EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN A MODERATE RIDGE
TO VALLEY SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL LEAD TO ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z...THOUGH AT LEAST A RELATIVE LULL IS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 6Z AND 13Z. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE AREA
LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A SFC SYSTEM ALSO APPROACHING THE AREA. SOME
THUNDER WITH SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z...
IF NOT MOST OF THE PERIOD AT ALL THE TAF SITES. LOCATIONS FURTHER
NORTH MAY EXPERIENCE THE LULL. AFTER 16Z...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME A BIT GUSTY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
810 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
UNSETTLED WEATHER DUE TO CONVECTIVE CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH
WORKING INTO THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE EVENING...IF NOT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT
IS ALSO DROPPING SOUTH TO NEAR THE OH RIVER AND GENERALLY SHOULD WASH
OUT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW WORKING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION IS LEADING TO CONTINUED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA AND EVEN SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOUISVILLE
VICINITY.
RECENT HRRR RUNS POINT TOWARD THE CURRENT BATCH OF CONVECTION
WORKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH OVER THE NEXT TWO THREE
HOURS...BUT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING THERE.
CONVECTION WORKING ACROSS CENTRAL KY MAY SURVIVE INTO THE NORTHERN
CWA NEAR INTERSTATE 64 AS WELL. WITH ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES
TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT...ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH WILL
PROBABLY EXPERIENCE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION PAST MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A RELATIVE LULL MAY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT...AFTER 2 AM...
BETWEEN THE UPPER DISTURBANCES.WITH TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS THEY
ARE ALOFT...HAIL... MOSTLY LIKELY SUB SEVERE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. TRAINING WILL
ALSO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION TAKES
PLACE HAS BEEN THE BIGGEST QUESTION TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AN ISSUE DURING THE PERIOD. IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO GET SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION TODAY FOR STRONG CONVECTION. A FEW STORMS HAVE GONE
THE EXTRA MILE AND PRODUCED SOME HAIL DUE TO FREEZING LEVELS ONLY
AROUND 8K FEET. WITH A FEW HOLES IN THE CLOUDS AND PEAK HEATING
OCCURRING...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO APPROACH. WILL LOOK FOR THE
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST TO MARCH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ALOFT ARE FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WITH BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR...BUT
INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK. THE SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED...WITH WATCHES/WARNINGS A POSSIBILITY IF ENOUGH LATE DAY
HEATING OCCURS. AFTER THIS CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THE NEXT MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR STORMS IS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER IMPULSE ALOFT APPROACHES. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH
DEVELOP CONVECTION. WHILE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...A BLEND OF RECENT GFS
AND NAM RUNS WOULD SUGGEST THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME BEING IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS PERSISTENT IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
ALONG A COLD FRONT AS IT ENTERS OUR AREA FROM THE NW ON TUESDAY
EVENING. THE GFS HAS NOT DEPICTED THIS. HAVE USED A POP GRADIENT FROM
NW TO SE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
SPENDING THE LONGEST TIME AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SEEING THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE FRONT BRINGS IN A STABLE
AIR MASS. SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL STILL EXIST FOR SEVERE STORMS ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. ONCE AGAIN...IF SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION CAN TAKE PLACE...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN. AT
THIS POINT...INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PRESENT BUT RATHER WEAK.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT...AT LEAST TO START THE
EXTENDED...BEFORE DIVERGING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEY ALL SHOW A
VERY DEEP AND LARGE MID LEVEL LOW SPINNING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.
A NODE OF THIS WILL BE SWEEPING NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT. AS
HEIGHTS SLOWLY START TO COME UP OVER KENTUCKY A SMALLER TROUGH WILL
BE MAKING ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY.
THIS WESTERN TROUGH WILL OPEN UP AND SEND IT ENERGY EAST INTO THE
FAST FLOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL...
THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LOW THAN THE GEM AND GFS.
THIS STRENGTH ALSO MANIFESTS ITSELF DOWNSTREAM OVER KENTUCKY AS A
BIT MORE RIDGING THROUGH THE WEEKEND THAN THE OTHERS. FOR
SUNDAY...THE GFS SEEMS MOST OUT OF STEP WITH ITS PATTERN COMPARED TO
THE OTHER MODELS AS IT HAS FLAT AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER KENTUCKY.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF...SUPPORTED BY THE GEM...STARTS TO BRING A FAST
MOVING AND QUICKLY DEEPENING TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL FURTHER CONSOLIDATE INTO MONDAY AS A DEEP LOW OVER THE MIDWEST
WITH A SWEEP OF ENERGY PRESSING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL FAVOR THE
MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND THEN LEAN MORE TOWARD
THE ECMWF FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL OCCUR AS AMPLE
MOISTURE...FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MEETS UP WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY
AND A COUPLE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL LIFT
INTO KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY
OVER THE AREA AS COLD AIR TO THE NORTH AND WARM TO THE SOUTH MAKES
FOR A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE STATE. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH AGAIN AS A BONA FIDE WARM FRONT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP SFC LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHER
PLAINS. THIS LATTER SYSTEM WILL THEN LOOK TO SWING ITS ELONGATED
COLD FRONT INTO THIS PART OF THE STATE LATER MONDAY. WITH THE
FORECAST AREA CAUGHT BETWEEN SEASONS THIS EXTENDED...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...BUT WITH A SMALLER THAN AVERAGE DIURNAL RANGE
DUE TO EXTRA CLOUDS AND PCPN AROUND.
THE CR GRID LOAD PROVED TO BE AN ADEQUATE START TO THE EXTENDED
GRIDS...THOUGH DID ADJUST THE POPS A TAD TOWARD THE DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTION FROM THE ECMWF THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. GIVEN
THE FRONTS NEARBY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIODS DID NOT DO TOO MUCH
ADJUSTING TO THE TEMPERATURES AS THE TERRAIN IMPACT WILL BE
RELATIVELY MUTED...EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN A MODERATE RIDGE
TO VALLEY SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL LEAD TO ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z...THOUGH AT LEAST A RELATIVE LULL IS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 6Z AND 13Z. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE AREA
LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A SFC SYSTEM ALSO APPROACHING THE AREA. SOME
THUNDER WITH SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z...
IF NOT MOST OF THE PERIOD AT ALL THE TAF SITES. LOCATIONS FURTHER
NORTH MAY EXPERIENCE THE LULL. AFTER 16Z...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME A BIT GUSTY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
933 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO THE MAX TEMPERATURES
SHOWING THEM TOPPING OUT THIS MORNING AND READINGS FALLING BACK
LATER THIS MORNING. 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRES MOVING
ACROSS NW MAINE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PINE TREE STATE.
THE 12Z RUN OF THE HRRR 3KM MODEL HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS AND
THE ANALYSIS BACKS THIS UP. THE FRONT WAS SLOWED INITIALLY AS THE
LOW PRES WAVE DEVELOPED ON THE FRONT SLOWING ITS FORWARD
PROGRESS. THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SOME
CLEARING MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MAINE AND LIFTING NORTH. THIS
CLEARING WILL MAKE ITS WAY NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
CLEARS NORTHERN AREAS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD TREK THIS MORNING AND WILL EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY IN THE MID 50S AND UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.
EXPECT SKIES WILL CLEAR QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT AS
LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE FAR NORTHWEST WHICH WILL DROP INTO THE
LOWER 30S, AND THE DOWNEAST COAST WHICH WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER
40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND GETS A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS IN A SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MAINE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN DEVELOPING WELL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FAST FLOW ALOFT UNDERNEATH A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL
DOMINATE LATE THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE TRAJECTORY AND PLACEMENT OF A LOW
AMPLITUDE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. WILL STICK WITH
THE SUPERBLEND CONSENSUS APPROACH.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD IFR DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE AND FOG
WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS MORNING.
EXPECT ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR BY 20Z AND REMAIN SO THEREAFTER.
SHORT TERM: IFR AND MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AT TAF SITES DUE TO LOW CLOUDS...RAIN AND FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED OUT TO 2 PM
SUNDAY. CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
ONCE THE OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES THROUGH, WAVES WILL BE SLOWER TO
RESPOND AND WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY NEEDED FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/OKULSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
144 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW FROM OVER NRN ONTARIO INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES. A WEAK UPSTREAM
SHRTWV LOCATED OVER FAR NE MN COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -4C
AND CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL WRLY FLOW SUPPORTED LAKE EFFECT PCPN FROM NEAR
M-38 INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
PREVAILED ACROSS THE CWA.
TODAY...AS THE MN SHRTWV MOVES TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER LARGER SHRTWV
SLIDES TO THE S THROUGH NW ONTARIO...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
WSW...SHIFTING THE LAKE EFFECT PCPN MAINLY OVER THE KEWEEAW. IN
ADDITION...MODELS AND UPSTREAM RAOBS SUGGEST SOME SFC-850 DRYING
ALONG WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAINING AROUND 4K-5K FT SHOULD BRING
A DIMINISHING TREND WITH THE PCPN. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS STILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FAR
ENOUG INLAND FROM THE WARMING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE WATER TEMPS WERE
STILL IN THE UPPER 40S.
TONIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN AS
850 MB TEMPS LINGER NEAR -3C WITH CONTINUED WSW LOW LEVEL FLOW.
WITHOUT ANY ENHANCING SHORTWAVES AND LESS FAVORABLE SFC-850 MB
MOISTURE UPSTREAM...ONLY SCT LAKE EFFECT SHRA/SHSN ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE KEWEENAW WITH LITTLE QPF(LESS THAN 0.05 INCH) AND NO SNOW
ACCUMULATON. WITH SOME CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS...MIN TEMPS
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S INLAND WEST HALF AND INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S EAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
THE LARGE 500MB TROUGH DOMINATING E CANADA AND THE E HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S. AT 12Z MONDAY WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE ZONAL
OVER THE U.S. FROM MID WEEK THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 500MB LOW
ITSELF WILL REMAIN ACROSS N MANITOBA OR N ONTARIO THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S. WE WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. AS A RESULT...MIXED MORNING PRECIP WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY.
THE MAIN TIME PERIODS OF INTEREST WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE 500MB LOW IS THE CLOSEST TO LAKE
SUPERIOR/UPPER MI. POPS MAY NEAR THE LIKELY CATEGORY OVER THE FAR W
MONDAY EVENING. TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY COULD BE BREEZY
ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WITH THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE SLOWLY EXITING LARGE SFC LOW...AND A RIDGE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE N PLAINS. WENT WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...WHICH RESULTED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/MORNING
SHOWERS SHOWERS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND NEARING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS AND S CENTRAL CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
VFR TO HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS ARE INFLUENCING ALL THREE SITES
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER AND SURFACE LOW IN NORTHERN ONTARIO. EXPECT THE BORDERLINE
MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT KCMX/KSAW FOR THE FIRST COUPLE
HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD...BEFORE DRIER AIR THAT IS ALREADY NEARING
KIWD AND DIURNAL HEATING PRODUCES VFR CEILINGS. LAKE EFFECT RAIN
(AND OCCASIONAL SNOW) SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KCMX AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. THE
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...ALLOWING CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AT KIWD/KSAW TONIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY KCMX MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL
ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
A SURFACE LOW ROTATING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO
PERSISTENT AND GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS OF 15-30KTS DURING THAT
PERIOD. THIS LOW WILL SHIFT EAST INTO QUEBEC BY THURSDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ALLOWING WINDS
TO DIMINISH.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
732 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW FROM OVER NRN ONTARIO INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES. A WEAK UPSTREAM
SHRTWV LOCATED OVER FAR NE MN COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -4C
AND CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL WRLY FLOW SUPPORTED LAKE EFFECT PCPN FROM NEAR
M-38 INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
PREVAILED ACROSS THE CWA.
TODAY...AS THE MN SHRTWV MOVES TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER LARGER SHRTWV
SLIDES TO THE S THROUGH NW ONTARIO...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
WSW...SHIFTING THE LAKE EFFECT PCPN MAINLY OVER THE KEWEEAW. IN
ADDITION...MODELS AND UPSTREAM RAOBS SUGGEST SOME SFC-850 DRYING
ALONG WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAINING AROUND 4K-5K FT SHOULD BRING
A DIMINISHING TREND WITH THE PCPN. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS STILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FAR
ENOUG INLAND FROM THE WARMING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE WATER TEMPS WERE
STILL IN THE UPPER 40S.
TONIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN AS
850 MB TEMPS LINGER NEAR -3C WITH CONTINUED WSW LOW LEVEL FLOW.
WITHOUT ANY ENHANCING SHORTWAVES AND LESS FAVORABLE SFC-850 MB
MOISTURE UPSTREAM...ONLY SCT LAKE EFFECT SHRA/SHSN ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE KEWEENAW WITH LITTLE QPF(LESS THAN 0.05 INCH) AND NO SNOW
ACCUMULATON. WITH SOME CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS...MIN TEMPS
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S INLAND WEST HALF AND INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S EAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
THE LARGE 500MB TROUGH DOMINATING E CANADA AND THE E HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S. AT 12Z MONDAY WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE ZONAL
OVER THE U.S. FROM MID WEEK THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 500MB LOW
ITSELF WILL REMAIN ACROSS N MANITOBA OR N ONTARIO THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S. WE WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. AS A RESULT...MIXED MORNING PRECIP WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY.
THE MAIN TIME PERIODS OF INTEREST WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE 500MB LOW IS THE CLOSEST TO LAKE
SUPERIOR/UPPER MI. POPS MAY NEAR THE LIKELY CATEGORY OVER THE FAR W
MONDAY EVENING. TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY COULD BE BREEZY
ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WITH THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE SLOWLY EXITING LARGE SFC LOW...AND A RIDGE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE N PLAINS. WENT WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...WHICH RESULTED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/MORNING
SHOWERS SHOWERS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND NEARING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS AND S CENTRAL CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 727 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
AS THE FLOW BACKS TO THE SW TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL
HEATING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT CMX BUT SHOULD NOT DROP VSBY BLO
VFR. GUSTY WINDS AT WILL OCCUR WITH DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT THE GUSTS TO
DIMINISH ON SUN EVNG WITH THE LOSS OF THE MIXING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
A SURFACE LOW ROTATING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO
PERSISTENT AND GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS OF 15-30KTS DURING THAT
PERIOD. THIS LOW WILL SHIFT EAST INTO QUEBEC BY THURSDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ALLOWING WINDS
TO DIMINISH.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
526 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW FROM OVER NRN ONTARIO INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES. A WEAK UPSTREAM
SHRTWV LOCATED OVER FAR NE MN COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -4C
AND CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL WRLY FLOW SUPPORTED LAKE EFFECT PCPN FROM NEAR
M-38 INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
PREVAILED ACROSS THE CWA.
TODAY...AS THE MN SHRTWV MOVES TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER LARGER SHRTWV
SLIDES TO THE S THROUGH NW ONTARIO...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
WSW...SHIFTING THE LAKE EFFECT PCPN MAINLY OVER THE KEWEEAW. IN
ADDITION...MODELS AND UPSTREAM RAOBS SUGGEST SOME SFC-850 DRYING
ALONG WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAINING AROUND 4K-5K FT SHOULD BRING
A DIMINISHING TREND WITH THE PCPN. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS STILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FAR
ENOUG INLAND FROM THE WARMING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE WATER TEMPS WERE
STILL IN THE UPPER 40S.
TONIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN AS
850 MB TEMPS LINGER NEAR -3C WITH CONTINUED WSW LOW LEVEL FLOW.
WITHOUT ANY ENHANCING SHORTWAVES AND LESS FAVORABLE SFC-850 MB
MOISTURE UPSTREAM...ONLY SCT LAKE EFFECT SHRA/SHSN ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE KEWEENAW WITH LITTLE QPF(LESS THAN 0.05 INCH) AND NO SNOW
ACCUMULATON. WITH SOME CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS...MIN TEMPS
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S INLAND WEST HALF AND INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S EAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
THE LARGE 500MB TROUGH DOMINATING E CANADA AND THE E HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S. AT 12Z MONDAY WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE ZONAL
OVER THE U.S. FROM MID WEEK THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 500MB LOW
ITSELF WILL REMAIN ACROSS N MANITOBA OR N ONTARIO THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S. WE WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. AS A RESULT...MIXED MORNING PRECIP WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY.
THE MAIN TIME PERIODS OF INTEREST WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE 500MB LOW IS THE CLOSEST TO LAKE
SUPERIOR/UPPER MI. POPS MAY NEAR THE LIKELY CATEGORY OVER THE FAR W
MONDAY EVENING. TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY COULD BE BREEZY
ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WITH THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE SLOWLY EXITING LARGE SFC LOW...AND A RIDGE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE N PLAINS. WENT WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...WHICH RESULTED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/MORNING
SHOWERS SHOWERS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND NEARING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS AND S CENTRAL CANADA. &&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
WHILE THE ARRIVAL OF SOME DRIER AIR HAS CAUSED THE CIGS AT THE TAF
SITES TO GO TO VFR...THE ARRIVAL OF A BAND OF LOWER CLDS NOW MOVING
INTO WRN LK SUP WL BRING MVFR CIGS TO CMX IN THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPSLOPE W WIND COMPONENT. SINCE THE WIND WL DOWNSLOPE INTO SAW...THE
TRANSITION BACK TO MVFR IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. AS THE FLOW BACKS
FURTHER TO THE SW ON SUN IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING...THE
CIGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. STRONGER GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD LINGER ALL NGT AT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX LOCATION. GUSTY WINDS
AT IWD AND SAW WL OCCUR WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON SUN. EXPECT THE GUSTS
TO DIMINISH ON SUN EVNG WITH THE LOSS OF THE MIXING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
A SURFACE LOW ROTATING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO
PERSISTENT AND GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS OF 15-30KTS DURING THAT
PERIOD. THIS LOW WILL SHIFT EAST INTO QUEBEC BY THURSDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ALLOWING WINDS
TO DIMINISH.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
459 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW FROM OVER NRN ONTARIO INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES. A WEAK UPSTREAM
SHRTWV LOCATED OVER FAR NE MN COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -4C
AND CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL WRLY FLOW SUPPORTED LAKE EFFECT PCPN FROM NEAR
M-38 INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
PREVAILED ACROSS THE CWA.
TODAY...AS THE MN SHRTWV MOVES TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER LARGER SHRTWV
SLIDES TO THE S THROUGH NW ONTARIO...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
WSW...SHIFTING THE LAKE EFFECT PCPN MAINLY OVER THE KEWEEAW. IN
ADDITION...MODELS AND UPSTREAM RAOBS SUGGEST SOME SFC-850 DRYING
ALONG WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAINING AROUND 4K-5K FT SHOULD BRING
A DIMINISHING TREND WITH THE PCPN. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS STILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FAR
ENOUG INLAND FROM THE WARMING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE WATER TEMPS WERE
STILL IN THE UPPER 40S.
TONIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN AS
850 MB TEMPS LINGER NEAR -3C WITH CONTINUED WSW LOW LEVEL FLOW.
WITHOUT ANY ENHANCING SHORTWAVES AND LESS FAVORABLE SFC-850 MB
MOISTURE UPSTREAM...ONLY SCT LAKE EFFECT SHRA/SHSN ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE KEWEENAW WITH LITTLE QPF(LESS THAN 0.05 INCH) AND NO SNOW
ACCUMULATON. WITH SOME CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS...MIN TEMPS
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S INLAND WEST HALF AND INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
THE PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THU WILL FEATURE THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION MEANDERING OVER NRN ONTARIO. THE NRN
JET STREAM WILL BE WELL S OF THE AREA MON...BUT WILL MOVE OVER THE
CWA BY TUE NIGHT AND REMAIN HERE UNTIL THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS THE
REGION ON THU OR FRI. THIS WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT SWINGS IN TEMPS
FROM OCCURRING THROUGH THU AS TEMPS REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
TEMP PROFILES WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT PRECIP
THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THE UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO PERIODS TO LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY SUN NIGHT...MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. ONLY CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIP
WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NWRN UPPER MI /WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S EACH
NIGHT/...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
WED AND THU LOOK LIKE THE DRIEST DAYS THIS WEEK AS 1000-500MB RH
DROPS TO NEAR OR BELOW 50 PERCENT AND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
AFTER THU...CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS MODEL DISAGREEMENT INCREASES.
OVERALL...THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
WHILE THE ARRIVAL OF SOME DRIER AIR HAS CAUSED THE CIGS AT THE TAF
SITES TO GO TO VFR...THE ARRIVAL OF A BAND OF LOWER CLDS NOW MOVING
INTO WRN LK SUP WL BRING MVFR CIGS TO CMX IN THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPSLOPE W WIND COMPONENT. SINCE THE WIND WL DOWNSLOPE INTO SAW...THE
TRANSITION BACK TO MVFR IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. AS THE FLOW BACKS
FURTHER TO THE SW ON SUN IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING...THE
CIGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. STRONGER GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD LINGER ALL NGT AT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX LOCATION. GUSTY WINDS
AT IWD AND SAW WL OCCUR WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON SUN. EXPECT THE GUSTS
TO DIMINISH ON SUN EVNG WITH THE LOSS OF THE MIXING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
A SURFACE LOW ROTATING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO
PERSISTENT AND GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS OF 15-30KTS DURING THAT
PERIOD. THIS LOW WILL SHIFT EAST INTO QUEBEC BY THURSDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ALLOWING WINDS
TO DIMINISH.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1028 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
LITTLE CHG IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS THE MAIN SHRTWV ALONG THE
MN/CANADIAN BORDER MOVES OFF TO THE NE OF MPX CWA. HOWEVER...A FEW
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING ONCE THIS SHRTWV ROTATES THRU THE GREAT LAKES.
IN ADDITION...ANOTHER SHRTWV WAS EVIDENT ACROSS ND EARLY THIS AFTN.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A SHORT PERIOD WHERE BOTH SHRTWV/S
COMBINED AND CREATE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL/EC MN AND
INTO WC WI BETWEEN 22-04Z THIS AFTN/EVENING. THIS IS NOTED ON THE
LATEST 15Z HRRR DERIVED REFLECTIVITY FORECAST. CURRENTLY THE
FORECAST HAS ONLY SPRINKLES IN CENTRAL/EC MN WITH CHC POPS IN WC
WI. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO PRECIPITATION AMTS WILL BE MINOR.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT QUIET...BUT TREND TOWARD A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THAT MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN COMES WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL VARIABILITY.
PATTERN EVOLUTION: CURRENT CLOSED LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO FILL IN
AND SHIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WRN RIDGE FLATTENING OUT AS
IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES
INTO CENTRAL NOAM ON SATURDAY...A POWERFUL PAC JET WILL START COMING
ONSHORE IS WASH/BC...WITH THE FIRST VESTIGES OF THIS JET ENERGY
WORKING INTO NRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW THIS WAVE WILL EVOLVE BETWEEN THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF. THE GFS SHOWS A WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEM THAT QUICKLY EVOLVES INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW NEXT WEEK...WHILE
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF...THOUGH WITH
THE 06.12 RUN IT SHIFTED SAID LOW FROM BEING OVER MN/ONT TO NOW
BEING DOWN OVER ARKANSAS.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDES
EAST...WE WILL SEE A COOL AND DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE DOWN FROM
CANADA WITH IT. THIS WILL KEEP OUR HIGHS RUNNING A GOOD 5-10 DEGS
BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE
OF CLOUD COVER...BUT IF WE SEE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...THEN WE SHOULD
HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING LOWS THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY MORNINGS DOWN IN
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...WE WILL ALSO BE
GETTING INTO THE H7-H6 BAROCLINIC ZONE CURRENTLY OUT OVER THE
DAKOTAS...WHICH IS WHAT WILL BE OUR SOURCE FOR VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF
CLOUD COVER WED/THU. THE 12Z MODELS HAVE ALSO CONTINUED TO TREND
DRIER THIS PERIOD...AS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR LOOKS TO SERIOUSLY IMPEDE
ANY PRECIP TRYING TO REACH THE SFC. STILL HAVE SOME REMNANT 20 POPS
LEFT WED NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN WHERE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF FALLING...BUT EVEN HERE...IT TRENDED QUITE A BIT
DRIER FROM WHAT ITS 06.00 MODEL RUN HAD.
FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE DIFFERENCES STEM FROM THE STRENGTH
OF THE PAC JET COMING IN BEHIND SATURDAYS FIRST SURGE. THE GFS KEEPS
A MUCH STRONGER JET GOING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES SUNDAY INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH KEEPS ITS ASSOCIATED LEAD WAVE AN
OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE ONE. A BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE JET ON THE ECMWF
ON SUNDAY ALLOWS THE INITIAL WAVE TO DIG FURTHER...ALLOWING IT TO
CLOSE OFF. THIS CLOSING OFF IS NOTHING NEW IN THE ECMWF...HOWEVER
THE TIMING/LOCATION OF WHERE IT CLOSES OFF HAS CHANGED CONSIDERABLY.
IN THE LAST 6 RUNS IT HAS TAKEN IT FROM CLOSING OFF MONDAY OVER SRN
MANITOBA /4.00 & 4.12 RUNS/...THEN MN/WRN ONTARIO /5.00...5.12 &
6.00 RUNS/...TO NOW CLOSING OFF ON TUESDAY DOWN OVER ARKANSAS. GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF VARIABILITY...JUST STUCK WITH THE BLENDED
FORECAST...WITH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND HIGHS GETTING BACK
INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. SAYING THERE WILL BE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE COMING DAYS IS AN
UNDERSTATEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW HAS AIDED
IN THE DEVELPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON NORTH
AND EAST THIS EVENING. THESE WILL BE EAST OF THE KRNH AND KEAU BY
THE BEGINNING OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. A CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS THAT
MORE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MN...PERHAPS EVEN BRUSHING THE TWIN CITIES
AROUND DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS SCENARIO AND NO MENTION
WAS INCLUDED IN THE NEW TAF SET FOR KRWF AND KMSP. EVEN IF THE
SHOWERS WERE TO OCCUR...VFR CONDITIONS WOULD STILL PREVAIL WITH
CEILINGS AOA 050. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT LESS THAN 10
KNOTS WILL BECOME WEST NORTHWEST (280-300) BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT
15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS.
KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AROUND DAYBREAK BUT WITH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH...NO MENTION
WAS INCLUDED IN THE TAF. STILL LOOKS QUITE BREEZY FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS 29016G24KTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 6-8 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 6-8 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
630 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
LITTLE CHG IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS THE MAIN SHRTWV ALONG THE
MN/CANADIAN BORDER MOVES OFF TO THE NE OF MPX CWA. HOWEVER...A FEW
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING ONCE THIS SHRTWV ROTATES THRU THE GREAT LAKES.
IN ADDITION...ANOTHER SHRTWV WAS EVIDENT ACROSS ND EARLY THIS AFTN.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A SHORT PERIOD WHERE BOTH SHRTWV/S
COMBINED AND CREATE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL/EC MN AND
INTO WC WI BETWEEN 22-04Z THIS AFTN/EVENING. THIS IS NOTED ON THE
LATEST 15Z HRRR DERIVED REFLECTIVITY FORECAST. CURRENTLY THE
FORECAST HAS ONLY SPRINKLES IN CENTRAL/EC MN WITH CHC POPS IN WC
WI. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO PRECIPITATION AMTS WILL BE MINOR.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT QUIET...BUT TREND TOWARD A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THAT MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN COMES WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL VARIABILITY.
PATTERN EVOLUTION: CURRENT CLOSED LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO FILL IN
AND SHIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WRN RIDGE FLATTENING OUT AS
IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES
INTO CENTRAL NOAM ON SATURDAY...A POWERFUL PAC JET WILL START COMING
ONSHORE IS WASH/BC...WITH THE FIRST VESTIGES OF THIS JET ENERGY
WORKING INTO NRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW THIS WAVE WILL EVOLVE BETWEEN THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF. THE GFS SHOWS A WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEM THAT QUICKLY EVOLVES INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW NEXT WEEK...WHILE
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF...THOUGH WITH
THE 06.12 RUN IT SHIFTED SAID LOW FROM BEING OVER MN/ONT TO NOW
BEING DOWN OVER ARKANSAS.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDES
EAST...WE WILL SEE A COOL AND DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE DOWN FROM
CANADA WITH IT. THIS WILL KEEP OUR HIGHS RUNNING A GOOD 5-10 DEGS
BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE
OF CLOUD COVER...BUT IF WE SEE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...THEN WE SHOULD
HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING LOWS THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY MORNINGS DOWN IN
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...WE WILL ALSO BE
GETTING INTO THE H7-H6 BAROCLINIC ZONE CURRENTLY OUT OVER THE
DAKOTAS...WHICH IS WHAT WILL BE OUR SOURCE FOR VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF
CLOUD COVER WED/THU. THE 12Z MODELS HAVE ALSO CONTINUED TO TREND
DRIER THIS PERIOD...AS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR LOOKS TO SERIOUSLY IMPEDE
ANY PRECIP TRYING TO REACH THE SFC. STILL HAVE SOME REMNANT 20 POPS
LEFT WED NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN WHERE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF FALLING...BUT EVEN HERE...IT TRENDED QUITE A BIT
DRIER FROM WHAT ITS 06.00 MODEL RUN HAD.
FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE DIFFERENCES STEM FROM THE STRENGTH
OF THE PAC JET COMING IN BEHIND SATURDAYS FIRST SURGE. THE GFS KEEPS
A MUCH STRONGER JET GOING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES SUNDAY INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH KEEPS ITS ASSOCIATED LEAD WAVE AN
OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE ONE. A BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE JET ON THE ECMWF
ON SUNDAY ALLOWS THE INITIAL WAVE TO DIG FURTHER...ALLOWING IT TO
CLOSE OFF. THIS CLOSING OFF IS NOTHING NEW IN THE ECMWF...HOWEVER
THE TIMING/LOCATION OF WHERE IT CLOSES OFF HAS CHANGED CONSIDERABLY.
IN THE LAST 6 RUNS IT HAS TAKEN IT FROM CLOSING OFF MONDAY OVER SRN
MANITOBA /4.00 & 4.12 RUNS/...THEN MN/WRN ONTARIO /5.00...5.12 &
6.00 RUNS/...TO NOW CLOSING OFF ON TUESDAY DOWN OVER ARKANSAS. GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF VARIABILITY...JUST STUCK WITH THE BLENDED
FORECAST...WITH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND HIGHS GETTING BACK
INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. SAYING THERE WILL BE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE COMING DAYS IS AN
UNDERSTATEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH A COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR. SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE
ACROSS WESTERN WI EARLY THIS EVENING WITH VCSH MENTIONED AT KRNH
AND KEAU. OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN070-090 OVERNIGHT WITH SCT-BKN050-060
ON TUESDAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
BECOMING WEST NORTHWEST (280-300) BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 13-17
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 24-28 KNOTS.
KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A FEW SPRINKLES TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AIRFIELD EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO BE 29016G24KTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 6-8 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 6-8 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
525 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014
A long wave trough over eastern North America will remain in place
early in the week. A couple of disturbances will move southeast
through the region and with a nw-se oriented baroclinic zone in
place, will see some increased isentropic ascent as times with
chances for some chances for showers. The best chances look to be
over the northeast portion of the cwfa.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014
We will see a gradual upper level pattern change as the high
latitude upper low north of the Great Lakes shifts off to the east
and a split, more progressive, upper flow pattern develops over
the central CONUS. Increased moisture will spread north and
northeast into the area with a sharpening west-east warm front
lifting into the region Wed-Thu. An almost "backdoorish" front drops
south through the region Thu night into Fri as Canadian high
pressure pushes south into the northern Plains and upper Midwest.
We have fairly high rain chances in the forecast Wed night through
Fri but chances will continue into the weekend as the front tries
to lift back to the north as another shortwave moves into the
central and southern Plains.
Overall weather related impacts: We will need to watch the potential
for mounting rainfall totals and convection/tstm chances later in
the week. Heavier rain chances look to be Thu-Fri with the frontal
boundary pushing back to the south.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 521 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014
Shortwave was swinging southeast through Kansas early this evening
with regional radars showing some widely scattered shower activity
in association with this feature. Will probably see some increase
in mid level cloudiness this evening as this moves into the area
with a few sprinkles possible. Will carry VCSH wording in TAFS,
but have brought this in sooner than 18z tafs, and more in line
with HRRR which would start activity after 03-04z timeframe.
Expecting VFR conditions through the period.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
945 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2014
.UPDATE...
No significant changes to the forecast tonight as the upper level
ridge continues to dominate the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0005Z.
Breezy westerly winds will continue over the region for another hour
or two then dissipate this evening. Northwest flow and moisture
aloft will keep SCT-BKN mid-level clouds along/north of a
KCTB-to-KGTF-to-KLWT line, with less cloud cover over southwest MT.
Waranauskas
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 605 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2014/
Tonight through Wednesday...Northwest flow aloft will continue as
the upper ridge remains over the west coast. Weak short wave
energy will move within the flow aloft tonight and may generate
some light showers, mainly in a narrow band from near Cut Bank to
east of Great Falls to just north of Lewistown. This lines up well
with RUC analysis but HRRR model data has the precipitation a bit
further to the west. Slightly cooler temperatures are in store for
the area Tuesday with a few isolated afternoon showers. The
pressure gradient will continue to favor breezy conditions Tuesday
afternoon. Additional short wave energy moves across the area
Wednesday with isolated showers again a possibility, mainly near
the international boundary and along the Rocky Mountain Front.
Temperatures will remain above seasonal averages.
Wednesday Night through Monday...Medium range models remain in
good agreement from midweek through Saturday but solutions
continue to diverge for the Sunday/Monday time frame. Period
starts off with northwest flow aloft over the Northern Rocky
Mountain region with temperatures that are near seasonal averages.
Moisture in the northwest flow will bring isolated rain and snow
showers to the western mountains through Friday afternoon. By
Friday evening, a strong upper level jet will push into western
Canada and the Pacific Northwest. However, beyond Saturday, the
strong flow aloft causes model solutions to diverge as short wave
strength and timing become more problematic. Based upon the
general pattern present in the medium range models am expecting
that increased Pacific moisture and upper level dynamics will
bring an growing chance for precipitation to the western mountains
with isolated to scattered showers moving out over the plains.
Have continued to trend PoPs upward for Saturday through Monday
with temperatures expected to cool back below seasonal averages.
Have also trended toward increased winds along the Rocky Mountain
Front during this period as well and am expecting that that one or
two high wind events along the east slopes of the Rockies are
possible between Friday and Monday. mpj
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 47 68 47 70 / 10 10 10 10
CTB 44 67 43 70 / 20 20 10 10
HLN 48 75 46 72 / 10 10 10 10
BZN 42 73 40 70 / 0 10 10 10
WEY 32 64 31 62 / 0 0 10 0
DLN 44 74 41 70 / 0 0 10 0
HVR 42 64 40 67 / 10 20 10 20
LWT 44 66 43 69 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
808 PM MDT MON OCT 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPDATE...THE 00Z HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD GRASP ON THE
CURRENT SITUATION...THUS TRENDED BOTH POPS AND WINDS TOWARD ITS
SOLUTION. THIS FAVORS ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS....SHIFTING TO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT ALSO FAVORS BREEZY CONDITIONS TAPERING OFF
SOME THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS OF 10-15 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WAS UNCHANGED.
WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DECREASE ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA BUT WITH
LAKE WIND CRITERIA STILL BEING MET WILL HANG ON TO THE CURRENT
LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH ITS EXPIRATION TIME OF 9 PM. GILCHRIST
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LIGHTER WINDS BUT COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FLOW AT THE SURFACE HAS LINKED UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
WINDS AT MID LEVELS FOR WINDY CONDITIONS AS CLOUDS HAVE THINNED.
HOWEVER LAKE WIND ADVISORY THIS EVENING MAY BE EXERCISED
THROUGH 9 PM AS WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. THIS DIURNAL
FLUCTUATION WILL CONTINUE AGAIN TUESDAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN
ZONES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE WEST. A RIBBON
OF CLOUDS WILL STRETCH NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA AND LIMIT TEMPS.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE PUSHES FURTHER NORTHEAST WITH
SHOWERS A GOOD BET ACROSS SOUTHERN SASK. SURFACE LOW DRIFTS SE
ACROSS CENTRAL MT MEANING SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT OR
FROM THE SE ACROSS NE MT. THIS WILL MEAN THAT TEMPS WILL BE A BIT
COOLER AGAIN WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER
60S SOUTHWEST. SHOWER AMOUNTS THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK LIGHT IF AT
ALL. TFJ
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE CWA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HELPING TO MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE 12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT TOWARD THE WEEKEND WHICH COULD BE
ASSOCIATED WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASES CONSIDERABLY BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK MAKING FOR LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE. RIGHT NOW THE
INHERITED GRADUAL DECREASING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND NEAR
CLIMO/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STILL SEEMED REASONABLE. MALIAWCO
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THEN...THE MODELS
BRING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. THIS COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THAT COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY.
MODELS DIFFER GOING INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS WANTS TO BRING A
FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH GOOD MOISTURE WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WITH DRY WEATHER. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES BEYOND SATURDAY. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AT TIMES.
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS EARLY WILL EVENTUALLY
DIMINISH BELOW 15 LATER TONIGHT. BMICKELSON
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
605 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2014
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday...Northwest flow aloft will continue as
the upper ridge remains over the west coast. Weak short wave
energy will move within the flow aloft tonight and may generate
some light showers, mainly in a narrow band from near Cut Bank to
east of Great Falls to just north of Lewistown. This lines up well
with RUC analysis but HRRR model data has the precipitation a bit
further to the west. Slightly cooler temperatures are in store for
the area Tuesday with a few isolated afternoon showers. The
pressure gradient will continue to favor breezy conditions Tuesday
afternoon. Additional short wave energy moves across the area
Wednesday with isolated showers again a possibility, mainly near
the international boundary and along the Rocky Mountain Front.
Temperatures will remain above seasonal averages.
Wednesday Night through Monday...Medium range models remain in
good agreement from midweek through Saturday but solutions
continue to diverge for the Sunday/Monday time frame. Period
starts off with northwest flow aloft over the Northern Rocky
Mountain region with temperatures that are near seasonal averages.
Moisture in the northwest flow will bring isolated rain and snow
showers to the western mountains through Friday afternoon. By
Friday evening, a strong upper level jet will push into western
Canada and the Pacific Northwest. However, beyond Saturday, the
strong flow aloft causes model solutions to diverge as short wave
strength and timing become more problematic. Based upon the
general pattern present in the medium range models am expecting
that increased Pacific moisture and upper level dynamics will
bring an growing chance for precipitation to the western mountains
with isolated to scattered showers moving out over the plains.
Have continued to trend PoPs upward for Saturday through Monday
with temperatures expected to cool back below seasonal averages.
Have also trended toward increased winds along the Rocky Mountain
Front during this period as well and am expecting that that one or
two high wind events along the east slopes of the Rockies are
possible between Friday and Monday. mpj
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0005Z.
Breezy westerly winds will continue over the region for another hour
or two then dissipate this evening. Northwest flow and moisture
aloft will keep SCT-BKN mid-level clouds along/north of a
KCTB-to-KGTF-to-KLWT line, with less cloud cover over southwest MT.
Waranauskas
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 47 68 47 70 / 10 10 10 10
CTB 44 67 43 70 / 20 20 10 10
HLN 48 75 46 72 / 10 10 10 10
BZN 42 73 40 70 / 0 10 10 10
WEY 32 64 31 62 / 0 0 10 0
DLN 44 74 41 70 / 0 0 10 0
HVR 42 64 40 67 / 10 20 10 20
LWT 44 66 43 69 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
946 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A CHILLY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ALSO
NEAR THE THOUSAND ISLANDS NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN WILL LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND END THIS EVENING
AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW
SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR AVERAGE EARLY
IN THE WORKWEEK BEFORE DROPPING BELOW AVERAGE AGAIN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ONGOING LAKE
EFFECT RAIN. LAKE INDUCED CAPE WILL BE NEAR 1200J/KG WITH
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 20K FEET THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY LOWERING THIS AFTERNOON.
OFF LAKE ERIE...
LAKE EFFECT RAIN HAS MADE A DECIDED SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SHIFT WAS WELL FORECAST BY THE CANADIAN
GEM FROM OVER 24 HOURS AGO...AND MORE RECENTLY THE HRRR MODEL. THE
LAKE EFFECT HAS BROKEN INTO TWO BANDS...WITH ONE STRETCHING FROM
NEAR KDKK TO WYOMING COUNTY...AND A SECOND FROM THE ASHTABULA COUNTY
SHORELINE TO SOUTHWEST CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. RECENT UPSTREAM RADAR
TRENDS SHOW THE WESTERN END OF THE BAND OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE BEGINNING TO SHIFT NORTH AGAIN AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BACKS MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. FOLLOWING THE MESOSCALE MODELS AND
ALSO UPSTREAM TRENDS...EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN TO SHIFT NORTH
BACK TOWARDS BUFFALO LATER THIS MORNING. IT SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS IT SHIFTS
FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NIAGARA COUNTY AND ENDS UP MAINLY ON THE
CANADIAN SIDE OF THE NIAGARA RIVER BY EVENING.
AS FAR AS RAIN INTENSITY GOES...THE BAND MAY STILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY
AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE MOVEMENT OF THE BAND IS LIMITING ITS
RESIDENCE TIME OVER ANY ONE LOCATION...AND HAS REDUCED THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHERN
ERIE COUNTY FOR NOW AS SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN OF THE EVENT WILL
CROSS THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAIN TOTALS FROM NORTH
BUFFALO INTO TONAWANDA MAY EXCEED 2 INCHES. THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN AS A DEEP LAYER OF TEMPERATURES FAVORABLE FOR
GRAUPEL AND MIXED PHASE PRECIP REMAIN WITHIN THE LAKE INDUCED MIXED
LAYER. SOME GRAUPEL AND ICE PELLETS MAY CONTINUE TO REACH THE
SURFACE IN THE MORE INTENSE EMBEDDED CELLS.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...
LAKE EFFECT RAIN IS SPUTTERING IN COMPARISON WITH A FEW SHOWERS NEAR
WATERTOWN AND THE THOUSAND ISLANDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ANYTHING
THAT REMAINS WILL LIFT BACK NORTH TO THE THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION
BEFORE WEAKENING BY MIDDAY. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS IN THIS
AREA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OR TWO.
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS...AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS HAS MOVED INTO
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO SOME PARTIAL SUN THIS AFTERNOON. FROM THE FINGER LAKES
INTO CENTRAL NY SKIES WILL BE SUNNY THIS MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.
BY THIS EVENING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL HAVE BACKED TO THE SSW. ANY
REMAINING LIMITED LAKE EFFECT WILL BE FORCED ONTO THE CANADIAN SIDE
OF BOTH LAKES. THIS WILL LEAVE DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH VARYING
AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS COVER AS SEVERAL BATCHES OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION. THE CLOUDS AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE
BREEZE WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOMEWHAT...WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID 30S IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION. THIS SHOULD KEEP FROST
POTENTIAL TO A MINIMUM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH REACHING ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CLOSED LOW LOCATED TO THE WEST OF
JAMES BAY. THE TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY SOME BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
THE STRONG UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH
OF JAMES BAY. OVERALL EXPECT SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER...AND SOME DRY
TIME BUILT IN FROM EARLY TO MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPS AVERAGING A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL WORK FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NEW YORK STATE ON MONDAY...WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT ROTATES
ACROSS THE AREA. BEST LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL JUST CLIP WESTERN
NEW YORK...SO WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS FROM THE
FINGER LAKES WEST FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL ALSO
BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS DAYTIME MIXING TAPS INTO
30-40KT WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK...TRANSLATING TO 20-30MPH GUSTS AT
THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT WILL THEN
PUSH INTO WESTERN NEW YORK MONDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE A BIT STRONGER...SO WILL KEEP
IN THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. 850MB TEMPS WILL JUMP FROM
+2C/+3C TO +6C/+7C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BOOST HIGHS
MONDAY BACK INTO THE 60S...WITH UPPER 50S RESERVED FOR JUST OUR
HIGHER TERRAIN. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
BOUNDARY WILL HELP KEEP LOW TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT SOME TEN DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S...WITH SOME LOW 50S ALONG THE LAKESHORES.
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ALOFT AND THE ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION PUSH INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA TO SEE A DRY SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO AGAIN BE IN
THE 60S ON TUESDAY AS THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS
WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE STRONGEST IN THIS SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A ROUND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS OUT
AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALLOW US TO HOLD ONTO ONE MORE NIGHT OF ABOVE AVERAGE
LOWS...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...HOWEVER MOST OF THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER HELPING TO LIMIT
RAINFALL CHANCES FOR THE MOST PART. THIS REGIME WILL KEEP COOLER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LOCKED IN ACROSS THE REGION.
A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL TAKE ANY
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH IT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL THEN RIDGE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE. EXPECT HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY GENERALLY IN THE 50S...WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
ON FRIDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL TRY TO
PUSH NORTHEAST TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER IT APPEARS AT
THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE
NOSING IN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP MOST
OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z GFS KEEP JUST
ABOUT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA AND POINTS SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THE 06Z GFS TRIES TO BRING A
FEW SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS THE NY/PA LINE VERY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR THE MOST PART. ONLY
EXCEPTION WOULD BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH COUNTRY WHERE A POTENT
SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL SKIRT THE NORTHERN NEW YORK/QUEBEC
BORDER...HOWEVER ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE LATE NEXT WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT RAIN WHICH HAS BEEN NEARLY
STATIONARY BETWEEN KDKK AND KBUF THIS MORNING SHOWING SIGNS OF
MOVING NORTH. THIS BAND WILL MOVE INTO KBUF BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z
AND REMAIN FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THIS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS. THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BAND IMPACTING THE KIAG BETWEEN 17Z AND
18Z...BUT SHOULD BE IN A WEAKENING STATE BY THAT TIME.
OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE
VSBYS WITHIN SOME PERIPHERAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
KJHW...KROC AND KART. IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY VFR WILL OCCUR AT
THESE SITE THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH PERIODS OF MID LEVEL CLOUD CROSSING
THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON BOTH LAKES THROUGH
TODAY WITH MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PERSISTENT
ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO PROVINCE...AND THIS WILL KEEP MODERATE
WINDS IN PLACE MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MORE OFTEN THAN NOT.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATERSPOUTS
TODAY ON LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH A DEEP AND STRONG LAYER OF LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY. WATERSPOUTS ARE MOST COMMON IN AND NEAR BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND CLOUDS WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
VORTICITY ARE MAXIMIZED. INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING WHICH
SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ042>044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/TMA
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
737 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A CHILLY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ALSO
NEAR THE THOUSAND ISLANDS NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN WILL LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND END THIS EVENING
AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW
SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR AVERAGE EARLY
IN THE WORKWEEK BEFORE DROPPING BELOW AVERAGE AGAIN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ONGOING LAKE
EFFECT RAIN. LAKE INDUCED CAPE WILL BE NEAR 1200J/KG WITH
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 20K FEET THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY LOWERING THIS AFTERNOON.
OFF LAKE ERIE...
LAKE EFFECT RAIN HAS MADE A DECIDED SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SHIFT WAS WELL FORECAST BY THE CANADIAN
GEM FROM OVER 24 HOURS AGO...AND MORE RECENTLY THE HRRR MODEL. THE
LAKE EFFECT HAS BROKEN INTO TWO BANDS...WITH ONE STRETCHING FROM
NEAR KDKK TO WYOMING COUNTY...AND A SECOND FROM THE ASHTABULA COUNTY
SHORELINE TO SOUTHWEST CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. RECENT UPSTREAM RADAR
TRENDS SHOW THE WESTERN END OF THE BAND OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE BEGINNING TO SHIFT NORTH AGAIN AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BACKS MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. FOLLOWING THE MESOSCALE MODELS AND
ALSO UPSTREAM TRENDS...EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN TO SHIFT NORTH
BACK TOWARDS BUFFALO LATER THIS MORNING. IT SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS IT SHIFTS
FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NIAGARA COUNTY AND ENDS UP MAINLY ON THE
CANADIAN SIDE OF THE NIAGARA RIVER BY EVENING.
AS FAR AS RAIN INTENSITY GOES...THE BAND MAY STILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY
AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE MOVEMENT OF THE BAND IS LIMITING ITS
RESIDENCE TIME OVER ANY ONE LOCATION...AND HAS REDUCED THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHERN
ERIE COUNTY FOR NOW AS SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN OF THE EVENT WILL
CROSS THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAIN TOTALS FROM NORTH
BUFFALO INTO TONAWANDA MAY EXCEED 2 INCHES. THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN AS A DEEP LAYER OF TEMPERATURES FAVORABLE FOR
GRAUPEL AND MIXED PHASE PRECIP REMAIN WITHIN THE LAKE INDUCED MIXED
LAYER. SOME GRAUPEL AND ICE PELLETS MAY CONTINUE TO REACH THE
SURFACE IN THE MORE INTENSE EMBEDDED CELLS.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...
LAKE EFFECT RAIN IS SPUTTERING IN COMPARISON WITH A FEW SHOWERS NEAR
WATERTOWN AND THE THOUSAND ISLANDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ANYTHING
THAT REMAINS WILL LIFT BACK NORTH TO THE THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION
BEFORE WEAKENING BY MIDDAY. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS IN THIS
AREA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OR TWO.
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS...AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS HAS MOVED INTO
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO SOME PARTIAL SUN THIS AFTERNOON. FROM THE FINGER LAKES
INTO CENTRAL NY SKIES WILL BE SUNNY THIS MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.
BY THIS EVENING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL HAVE BACKED TO THE SSW. ANY
REMAINING LIMITED LAKE EFFECT WILL BE FORCED ONTO THE CANADIAN SIDE
OF BOTH LAKES. THIS WILL LEAVE DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH VARYING
AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS COVER AS SEVERAL BATCHES OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION. THE CLOUDS AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE
BREEZE WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOMEWHAT...WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID 30S IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION. THIS SHOULD KEEP FROST
POTENTIAL TO A MINIMUM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH REACHING ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CLOSED LOW LOCATED TO THE WEST OF
JAMES BAY. THE TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY SOME BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
THE STRONG UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH
OF JAMES BAY. OVERALL EXPECT SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER...AND SOME DRY
TIME BUILT IN FROM EARLY TO MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPS AVERAGING A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL WORK FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NEW YORK STATE ON MONDAY...WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT ROTATES
ACROSS THE AREA. BEST LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL JUST CLIP WESTERN
NEW YORK...SO WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS FROM THE
FINGER LAKES WEST FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL ALSO
BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS DAYTIME MIXING TAPS INTO
30-40KT WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK...TRANSLATING TO 20-30MPH GUSTS AT
THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT WILL THEN
PUSH INTO WESTERN NEW YORK MONDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE A BIT STRONGER...SO WILL KEEP
IN THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. 850MB TEMPS WILL JUMP FROM
+2C/+3C TO +6C/+7C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BOOST HIGHS
MONDAY BACK INTO THE 60S...WITH UPPER 50S RESERVED FOR JUST OUR
HIGHER TERRAIN. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
BOUNDARY WILL HELP KEEP LOW TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT SOME TEN DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S...WITH SOME LOW 50S ALONG THE LAKESHORES.
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ALOFT AND THE ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION PUSH INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA TO SEE A DRY SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO AGAIN BE IN
THE 60S ON TUESDAY AS THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS
WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE STRONGEST IN THIS SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A ROUND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS OUT
AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALLOW US TO HOLD ONTO ONE MORE NIGHT OF ABOVE AVERAGE
LOWS...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...HOWEVER MOST OF THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER HELPING TO LIMIT
RAINFALL CHANCES FOR THE MOST PART. THIS REGIME WILL KEEP COOLER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LOCKED IN ACROSS THE REGION.
A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL TAKE ANY
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH IT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL THEN RIDGE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE. EXPECT HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY GENERALLY IN THE 50S...WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
ON FRIDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL TRY TO
PUSH NORTHEAST TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER IT APPEARS AT
THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE
NOSING IN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP MOST
OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z GFS KEEP JUST
ABOUT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA AND POINTS SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THE 06Z GFS TRIES TO BRING A
FEW SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS THE NY/PA LINE VERY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR THE MOST PART. ONLY
EXCEPTION WOULD BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHCOUNTRY WHERE A POTENT
SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL SKIRT THE NORTHERN NEW YORK/QUEBEC
BORDER...HOWEVER ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE LATE NEXT WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT RAIN HAS MOVED SOUTH INTO
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THIS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS
AND VSBY TO THE SOUTH OF KBUF DOWN TO NEAR KJHW THROUGH ABOUT
14Z-15Z. BY LATE MORNING THE BAND WILL MOVE BACK NORTH INTO THE KBUF
VCNTY AND PRODUCE ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE.
THIS AFTERNOON THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN WILL LIFT FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
KIAG AND WEAKEN...EVENTUALLY FALLING APART ACROSS THE NIAGARA
PENINSULA NORTH OF LAKE ERIE BY THIS EVENING.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO A WEAKER BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN WILL SPEND MOST
OF ITS TIME ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE BORDER THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CLIP THE
THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION NORTH OF KART AT TIMES.
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES THIS
MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON. VFR WILL
PREVAIL FROM KROC EASTWARD TO KFZY.
TONIGHT VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH PERIODS OF MID LEVEL CLOUD CROSSING
THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON BOTH LAKES THROUGH
TODAY WITH MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PERSISTENT
ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO PROVINCE...AND THIS WILL KEEP MODERATE
WINDS IN PLACE MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MORE OFTEN THAN NOT.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATERSPOUTS
TODAY ON LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH A DEEP AND STRONG LAYER OF LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY. WATERSPOUTS ARE MOST COMMON IN AND NEAR BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND CLOUDS WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
VORTICITY ARE MAXIMIZED. INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING WHICH
SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ042>044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
713 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A CHILLY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ALSO
NEAR THE THOUSAND ISLANDS NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN WILL LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND END THIS EVENING
AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW
SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR AVERAGE EARLY
IN THE WORKWEEK BEFORE DROPPING BELOW AVERAGE AGAIN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ONGOING LAKE
EFFECT RAIN. LAKE INDUCED CAPE WILL BE NEAR 1200J/KG WITH
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 20K FEET THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY LOWERING THIS AFTERNOON.
OFF LAKE ERIE...
A WIDE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
BAND NEVER REACHED A HIGH LEVEL OF ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT BUT HAS
PRODUCED SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN SUBURBS OF
BUFFALO AS EXPECTED. UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY FROM KCLE SHOWS A
DISTINCT KINK IN THE BAND...WITH A NEW EAST/WEST ORIENTED BAND OF
LAKE EFFECT RAIN FROM ASHTABULA OHIO TO SOUTHERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY.
MEANWHILE THE NORTHERN BAND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE THE
SOUTHERN BAND BECOMES DOMINANT. THIS IS ALL DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH VEERED
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BY 20-30 DEGREES OVER LAKE ERIE OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THE HRRR HAS A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS EVOLUTION
THUS FAR...AND HAS BEEN FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LAKE ERIE BAND THROUGH LATE MORNING.
WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT MOST OF THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN TO FOCUS
FROM THE CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY SHORELINE TO SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY FROM
DAYBREAK TO MID MORNING...THEN SHIFT BACK NORTH INTO BUFFALO BY
MIDDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST AGAIN. AFTER
18Z THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN WILL SHIFT FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NIAGARA
COUNTY AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE...FETCH
SHORTENS AS FLOW BECOMES MORE SSW...AND SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE
DECREASES.
AS FAR AS RAIN INTENSITY GOES...THE BAND MAY STILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY
AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE MOVEMENT OF THE BAND IS LIMITING ITS
RESIDENCE TIME OVER ANY ONE LOCATION...AND HAS REDUCED THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHERN
ERIE COUNTY FOR NOW AS SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN OF THE EVENT WILL
CROSS THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAIN TOTALS FROM NORTH
BUFFALO INTO TONAWANDA MAY EXCEED 2 INCHES. THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN AS A DEEP LAYER OF TEMPERATURES FAVORABLE FOR
GRAUPEL AND MIXED PHASE PRECIP REMAIN WITHIN THE LAKE INDUCED MIXED
LAYER. SOME GRAUPEL AND ICE PELLETS MAY CONTINUE TO REACH THE
SURFACE IN THE MORE INTENSE EMBEDDED CELLS.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...
LAKE EFFECT RAIN IS SPUTTERING IN COMPARISON WITH A NARROW BAND NEAR
WATERTOWN OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS BAND SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER
THROUGH MID MORNING AND LIFT BACK NORTH TO THE THOUSAND ISLANDS
REGION BEFORE WEAKENING BY MIDDAY. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS IN
THIS AREA...BUT A FEW SPOTS MAY PICK UP A QUARTER INCH OR SO AS THE
BAND LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF JEFFERSON COUNTY THIS
MORNING.
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS...AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS HAS MOVED INTO
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO SOME PARTIAL SUN THIS AFTERNOON. FROM THE FINGER LAKES
INTO CENTRAL NY SKIES WILL BE SUNNY THIS MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.
BY THIS EVENING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL HAVE BACKED TO THE SSW. ANY
REMAINING LIMITED LAKE EFFECT WILL BE FORCED ONTO THE CANADIAN SIDE
OF BOTH LAKES. THIS WILL LEAVE DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH VARYING
AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS COVER AS SEVERAL BATCHES OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION. THE CLOUDS AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE
BREEZE WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOMEWHAT...WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID 30S IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION. THIS SHOULD KEEP FROST
POTENTIAL TO A MINIMUM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH REACHING ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CLOSED LOW LOCATED TO THE WEST OF
JAMES BAY. THE TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY SOME BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
THE STRONG UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH
OF JAMES BAY. OVERALL EXPECT SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER...AND SOME DRY
TIME BUILT IN FROM EARLY TO MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPS AVERAGING A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL WORK FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NEW YORK STATE ON MONDAY...WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT ROTATES
ACROSS THE AREA. BEST LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL JUST CLIP WESTERN
NEW YORK...SO WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS FROM THE
FINGER LAKES WEST FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL ALSO
BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS DAYTIME MIXING TAPS INTO
30-40KT WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK...TRANSLATING TO 20-30MPH GUSTS AT
THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT WILL THEN
PUSH INTO WESTERN NEW YORK MONDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE A BIT STRONGER...SO WILL KEEP
IN THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. 850MB TEMPS WILL JUMP FROM
+2C/+3C TO +6C/+7C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BOOST HIGHS
MONDAY BACK INTO THE 60S...WITH UPPER 50S RESERVED FOR JUST OUR
HIGHER TERRAIN. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
BOUNDARY WILL HELP KEEP LOW TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT SOME TEN DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S...WITH SOME LOW 50S ALONG THE LAKESHORES.
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ALOFT AND THE ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION PUSH INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA TO SEE A DRY SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO AGAIN BE IN
THE 60S ON TUESDAY AS THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS
WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE STRONGEST IN THIS SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A ROUND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS OUT
AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALLOW US TO HOLD ONTO ONE MORE NIGHT OF ABOVE AVERAGE
LOWS...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...HOWEVER MOST OF THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER HELPING TO LIMIT
RAINFALL CHANCES FOR THE MOST PART. THIS REGIME WILL KEEP COOLER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LOCKED IN ACROSS THE REGION.
A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL TAKE ANY
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH IT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL THEN RIDGE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE. EXPECT HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY GENERALLY IN THE 50S...WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
ON FRIDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL TRY TO
PUSH NORTHEAST TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER IT APPEARS AT
THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE
NOSING IN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP MOST
OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z GFS KEEP JUST
ABOUT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA AND POINTS SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THE 06Z GFS TRIES TO BRING A
FEW SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS THE NY/PA LINE VERY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR THE MOST PART. ONLY
EXCEPTION WOULD BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHCOUNTRY WHERE A POTENT
SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL SKIRT THE NORTHERN NEW YORK/QUEBEC
BORDER...HOWEVER ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE LATE NEXT WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE KBUF TERMINAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. THE BAND WILL
MEANDER NORTH AND SOUTH AT TIMES BUT SHOULD RESIDE OVER THE KBUF
AIRFIELD MOST OF THE TIME. MVFR CIGS/VSBY WILL BE COMMON WITHIN THE
BAND OF RAIN WITH SOME BRIEF IFR WITHIN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL ALSO PRODUCE SNOW/ICE PELLETS FOR BRIEF PERIODS
OF TIME. THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN BAND SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT
NORTH BY 18Z WITH CONDITIONS AT KBUF IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE NORTHWARD SHIFTING LAKE BAND MAY PRODUCE A FEW HOURS
OF MVFR AT KIAG DURING THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO A WEAKER BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN WILL SPEND MOST
OF ITS TIME ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE BORDER THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CLIP THE
THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION NORTH OF KART AT TIMES.
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS UPSTREAM ACROSS OHIO MAY
SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT BY MIDDAY. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF
THE AREA TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON BOTH LAKES THROUGH
TODAY WITH MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PERSISTENT
ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO PROVINCE...AND THIS WILL KEEP MODERATE
WINDS IN PLACE MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MORE OFTEN THAN NOT.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATERSPOUTS
TODAY ON LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH A DEEP AND STRONG LAYER OF LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY. WATERSPOUTS ARE MOST COMMON IN AND NEAR BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND CLOUDS WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
VORTICITY ARE MAXIMIZED. INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING WHICH
SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ042>044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
449 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A CHILLY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ALSO
NEAR THE THOUSAND ISLANDS NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN WILL LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND END THIS EVENING
AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW
SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR AVERAGE EARLY
IN THE WORKWEEK BEFORE DROPPING BELOW AVERAGE AGAIN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ONGOING LAKE
EFFECT RAIN. LAKE INDUCED CAPE WILL BE NEAR 1200J/KG WITH
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 20K FEET THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY LOWERING THIS AFTERNOON.
OFF LAKE ERIE...
A WIDE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
BAND NEVER REACHED A HIGH LEVEL OF ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT BUT HAS
PRODUCED SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN SUBURBS OF
BUFFALO AS EXPECTED. UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY FROM KCLE SHOWS A
DISTINCT KINK IN THE BAND...WITH A NEW EAST/WEST ORIENTED BAND OF
LAKE EFFECT RAIN FROM ASHTABULA OHIO TO SOUTHERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY.
MEANWHILE THE NORTHERN BAND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE THE
SOUTHERN BAND BECOMES DOMINANT. THIS IS ALL DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH VEERED
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BY 20-30 DEGREES OVER LAKE ERIE OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THE HRRR HAS A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS EVOLUTION
THUS FAR...AND HAS BEEN FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LAKE ERIE BAND THROUGH LATE MORNING.
WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT MOST OF THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN TO FOCUS
FROM THE CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY SHORELINE TO SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY FROM
DAYBREAK TO MID MORNING...THEN SHIFT BACK NORTH INTO BUFFALO BY
MIDDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST AGAIN. AFTER
18Z THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN WILL SHIFT FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NIAGARA
COUNTY AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE...FETCH
SHORTENS AS FLOW BECOMES MORE SSW...AND SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE
DECREASES.
AS FAR AS RAIN INTENSITY GOES...THE BAND MAY STILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY
AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE MOVEMENT OF THE BAND IS LIMITING ITS
RESIDENCE TIME OVER ANY ONE LOCATION...AND HAS REDUCED THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHERN
ERIE COUNTY FOR NOW AS SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN OF THE EVENT WILL
CROSS THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAIN TOTALS FROM NORTH
BUFFALO INTO TONAWANDA MAY EXCEED 2 INCHES. THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN AS A DEEP LAYER OF TEMPERATURES FAVORABLE FOR
GRAUPEL AND MIXED PHASE PRECIP REMAIN WITHIN THE LAKE INDUCED MIXED
LAYER. SOME GRAUPEL AND ICE PELLETS MAY CONTINUE TO REACH THE
SURFACE IN THE MORE INTENSE EMBEDDED CELLS.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...
LAKE EFFECT RAIN IS SPUTTERING IN COMPARISON WITH A NARROW BAND NEAR
WATERTOWN OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS BAND SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER
THROUGH MID MORNING AND LIFT BACK NORTH TO THE THOUSAND ISLANDS
REGION BEFORE WEAKENING BY MIDDAY. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS IN
THIS AREA...BUT A FEW SPOTS MAY PICK UP A QUARTER INCH OR SO AS THE
BAND LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF JEFFERSON COUNTY THIS
MORNING.
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS...AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS HAS MOVED INTO
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO SOME PARTIAL SUN THIS AFTERNOON. FROM THE FINGER LAKES
INTO CENTRAL NY SKIES WILL BE SUNNY THIS MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.
BY THIS EVENING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL HAVE BACKED TO THE SSW. ANY
REMAINING LIMITED LAKE EFFECT WILL BE FORCED ONTO THE CANADIAN SIDE
OF BOTH LAKES. THIS WILL LEAVE DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH VARYING
AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS COVER AS SEVERAL BATCHES OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION. THE CLOUDS AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE
BREEZE WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOMEWHAT...WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID 30S IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION. THIS SHOULD KEEP FROST
POTENTIAL TO A MINIMUM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REACHING ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CLOSED LOW CENTERED WEST OF JAMES BAY. THE
TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY SOME BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE STRONG UPPER
LOW BEGINS TO FILL AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH OF JAMES BAY.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL WORK SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEW
YORK STATE ON MONDAY...WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT ROTATES ACROSS
THE AREA. BEST LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL JUST CLIP WESTERN NEW
YORK...SO WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS FROM THE FINGER
LAKES WEST LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL ALSO BE SOMEWHAT
BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS DAYTIME MIXING TAPS INTO 30-40KT WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK...GIVING 20-30MPH GUSTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A
WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INTO WESTERN NEW YORK STATE
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
BE A BIT STRONGER...SO THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE.
850MB TEMPS WILL JUMP FROM +2C/+3C TO +6C/+7C DURING THE DAY MONDAY
THANKS TO THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH WILL BOOST HIGHS MONDAY
BACK INTO THE 60S...WITH UPPER 50S JUST RESERVED FOR OUR HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL HELP KEEP LOW TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT SOME TEN DEGREES WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...WITH SOME LOW 50S ALONG THE LAKESHORES.
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ALOFT AND ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION PUSH INTO EASTERN
NEW YORK BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS TO AGAIN BE IN THE 60S
ON TUESDAY AS THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS WITH THE
WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE STRONGEST IN THIS SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE AT THE SURFACE
A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A ROUND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS OUT
AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALLOW US TO HOLD ON TO ONE MORE NIGHT OF ABOVE AVERAGE
LOWS...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A VERY BROAD AND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER ONTARIO
WILL GRADUALLY FILL DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK...WHILE THE PARENT
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DE-AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SETS UP BY THURSDAY WITH A PERIOD OF CLEARING
SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE LOWER PLAINS ON
THURSDAY WILL ESTABLISH A STRONGER WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION BY
WEEKS END WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THE TEMPERATURE TREND
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH BE RATHER FLAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S...AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE KBUF TERMINAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. THE BAND WILL
MEANDER NORTH AND SOUTH AT TIMES BUT SHOULD RESIDE OVER THE KBUF
AIRFIELD MOST OF THE TIME. MVFR CIGS/VSBY WILL BE COMMON WITHIN THE
BAND OF RAIN WITH SOME BRIEF IFR WITHIN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL ALSO PRODUCE SNOW/ICE PELLETS FOR BRIEF PERIODS
OF TIME. THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN BAND SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT
NORTH BY 18Z WITH CONDITIONS AT KBUF IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE NORTHWARD SHIFTING LAKE BAND MAY PRODUCE A FEW HOURS
OF MVFR AT KIAG DURING THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO A WEAKER BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN WILL SPEND MOST
OF ITS TIME ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE BORDER THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CLIP THE
THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION NORTH OF KART AT TIMES.
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS UPSTREAM ACROSS OHIO MAY
SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT BY MIDDAY. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF
THE AREA TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON BOTH LAKES THROUGH
TODAY WITH MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PERSISTENT
ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO PROVINCE...AND THIS WILL KEEP MODERATE
WINDS IN PLACE MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MORE OFTEN THAN NOT.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATERSPOUTS
TODAY ON LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH A DEEP AND STRONG LAYER OF LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY. WATERSPOUTS ARE MOST COMMON IN AND NEAR BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND CLOUDS WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
VORTICITY ARE MAXIMIZED. INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING WHICH
SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ042>044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...FRANKLIN
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1032 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE INCREASED MONDAY. DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST FLOW CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN LATE THURSDAY IN FAST ZONAL FLOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK AS NEXT IMPULSE ARRIVING INTO CWA FROM
THE W. THIS WILL MOVE THRU BY 07Z WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER WAVE
AFFECTING SW VA AND S WV TOWARD DAWN. OVERALL THOUGH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN UNDER AN INCH SO FAR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... MUCH MORE ACTIVE AUTUMN PATTERN...AS
SPOKES OF ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAXIMUMS ROTATE AROUND THE
BROAD 500 MB TROF OVER WESTERN ONTARIO.
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WAS INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR THE CLUSTERS TO COME LATE. AS MENTIONED THIS
MORNING...HARD TO TIME THE INDIVIDUAL SHOWER/STORM CLUSTERS IN THIS
FAST FLOW. MAIN 500 MB VORT MAXIMUM ON 16Z RAP NOT PASSING INTO OUR
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES UNTIL AFTER 06Z TUESDAY. WILL HOLD LIKELY POPS
THERE MOST OF THE NIGHT. WITHOUT AN ORGANIZED SURFACE
FEATURE...LIKE A FRONT...HARD TO TIME REMOVE OF POP...BUT DROPPED
BELOW 15 PCT IN THE MID OHIO VALLEY AFTER 06Z...IN WAKE OF THAT 500
MB AXIS. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LOWER IN THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...SO WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD LOWER CLOUDS THAN SURFACE BASED
FOG FOR THE PREDAWN HOURS.
FAVORED THE FASTER 12Z GFS OVER THE SLOWER NAM FOR NEXT DISTURBANCE
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SO INCREASED POPS FASTER FROM WEST TO
EAST.
WILL FINE TUNE MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT HOUR...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY BIG
CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN THIS PERIOD. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN FAST W-NW FLOW THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROF/COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH EAST EARLY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY.
HAVE CONTINUED TREND FROM EARLIER GRIDS AS WET WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY SEASONABLE CONDITIONS BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING ON THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
BECOMING ORIENTED WEST TO EAST...FROM KENTUCKY TO VIRGINIA...UNDER
MOIST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK ITS WAY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG FRONT
JUST TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED PERIOD. DEPENDING
ON WHICH MODEL YOU PICK...BY SATURDAY...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND
THE TIMING THESE FEATURES WILL DIFFER. POPULATING WITH WPC TEMPS AND
POPS GUIDANCE WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREA OF SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA PUSHING INTO MOUNTAINS AS OF 00Z
WITH A LULL ELSEWHERE. WILL WATCH FOR ANOTHER IMPULSE TO ROTATE
THRU FROM THE W LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE SOME TEMPO IFR GROUPS FOR
THESE SHRA/TSRA NEXT SEVERAL HRS. THINGS QUIET DOWN LATER TONIGHT
WITH VARYING CIGS...PERHAPS SOME MVFR AT TIMES ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN. THINK BL WINDS SHOULD KEEP DENSE FOG AT BAY.
VFR CONDITIONS FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER IMPULSE
APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CIGS LOWERING INTO PERHAPS MVFR
WITH SHRA/TSRA AND POSSIBLE IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE AND TIMING OF LOWER CEILINGS VERSUS
DENSER FOG OVERNIGHT COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 10/07/14
UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS OR FOG OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. IFR IN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/KMC/KTB
NEAR TERM...KTB/30
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
842 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE THE PARADE OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
PRODUCE PEA TO PENNY SIZE HAIL. WILL FOLLOW THE HRRR TREND OF
INCREASING POPS AND COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN
OHIO...MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL ALSO HAVE LIKELY POPS INITIALLY
FAR NORTHWEST. BY MID EVENING DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. WILL END PRECIP WEST IN THE EVENING AND TAPER EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. MID 40S LOOK GOOD FOR LOWS. NO
CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY MODELS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE RETURNING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF A DECENT SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WILL BEGIN WITH MOST AREAS DRY ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE
POP FAR SOUTHWEST TO START IN THE MORNING. THROUGH THE MORNING WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD CHANCE POPS EAST INTO NORTHEAST OHIO WHILE POPS
WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY SOUTHWEST. FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE
MOST AREAS TO CAT POPS AS MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE POSITIONED
FAVORABLY UNDER THE JET FOR DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BASE OF THE
TROF ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH BY EVENING CAT POPS WILL BE JUST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHILE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
WILL REMAIN WEST AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WEDNESDAY
MORNING 850MB TEMPS DROP TO +2C AND DROP TO NEAR 0C BY 18Z. WILL
NEED TO LEAVE CHANCE POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT IN THE SNOWBELT
COUNTIES...FOR RAIN. OTHERWISE WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD IN FOR A DECENT DAY. THURSDAY MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY.
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH DEEP OVERRUNNING MOISTURE THAT SPREADS EAST QUICKLY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE DIFFERENCES HOWEVER IS THAT WHILE THE
GFS BRINGS THE SWATH OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA...THEN NAM HOLDS
IT WELL TO THE SOUTH. THE SREF SHOWS MORE OF A THIRD SOLUTION
RATHER THAN SUPPORTING THE NAM OR GFS. SO FOR NOW WILL MEET IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE NAM AND GFS AND BRING CHANCE POPS TO NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND LIKELY POPS SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS SOUTH AND CHANCE NORTH. TEMPS
TUESDAY NEAR NORMAL AND THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
SHORT TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ETERNAL EASTERN UNITED STATES UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES RIDGE. SOME RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING TROUGH IN
THE WEST. EVENTUALLY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SHIFT EAST OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS REFLECTS TO THE SURFACE IN
THE FORM OF A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BY MONDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER OKLAHOMA AND MOVE EAST TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE LOW
ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL SET UP A FLOW OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN A BIT FOR FRIDAY BUT BEGIN TO
TRANSITION BACK UP AGAIN IN THE SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A VARIETY OF
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL ACCOMPANY IT AND THEN CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME VFR. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY. SOME QUESTION TO THE TIMING.
AT THIS TIME TRYING TO KEEP THE THREAT MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE LAKE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT TIGHT SUPPORTING WIND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING FROM THE SOUTH AND THEN BECOME
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE PERIODIC DROPS IN THE WIND BUT
THE OVERALL TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IS THE WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH THAT WE WILL NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
UNTIL THEN WINDS DO DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AS THEY BECOME NORTHERLY AND
DIMINISH EVEN FURTHER ON SATURDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
829 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE THE PARADE OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
PRODUCE PEA TO PENNY SIZE HAIL. WILL FOLLOW THE HRRR TREND OF
INCREASING POPS AND COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN
OHIO...MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL ALSO HAVE LIKELY POPS INITIALLY
FAR NORTHWEST. BY MID EVENING DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. WILL END PRECIP WEST IN THE EVENING AND TAPER EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. MID 40S LOOK GOOD FOR LOWS. NO
CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY MODELS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE RETURNING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF A DECENT SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WILL BEGIN WITH MOST AREAS DRY ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE
POP FAR SOUTHWEST TO START IN THE MORNING. THROUGH THE MORNING WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD CHANCE POPS EAST INTO NORTHEAST OHIO WHILE POPS
WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY SOUTHWEST. FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE
MOST AREAS TO CAT POPS AS MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE POSITIONED
FAVORABLY UNDER THE JET FOR DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BASE OF THE
TROF ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH BY EVENING CAT POPS WILL BE JUST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHILE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
WILL REMAIN WEST AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WEDNESDAY
MORNING 850MB TEMPS DROP TO +2C AND DROP TO NEAR 0C BY 18Z. WILL
NEED TO LEAVE CHANCE POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT IN THE SNOWBELT
COUNTIES...FOR RAIN. OTHERWISE WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD IN FOR A DECENT DAY. THURSDAY MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY.
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH DEEP OVERRUNNING MOISTURE THAT SPREADS EAST QUICKLY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE DIFFERENCES HOWEVER IS THAT WHILE THE
GFS BRINGS THE SWATH OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA...THEN NAM HOLDS
IT WELL TO THE SOUTH. THE SREF SHOWS MORE OF A THIRD SOLUTION
RATHER THAN SUPPORTING THE NAM OR GFS. SO FOR NOW WILL MEET IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE NAM AND GFS AND BRING CHANCE POPS TO NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND LIKELY POPS SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS SOUTH AND CHANCE NORTH. TEMPS
TUESDAY NEAR NORMAL AND THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
SHORT TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ETERNAL EASTERN UNITED STATES UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES RIDGE. SOME RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING TROUGH IN
THE WEST. EVENTUALLY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SHIFT EAST OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS REFLECTS TO THE SURFACE IN
THE FORM OF A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BY MONDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER OKLAHOMA AND MOVE EAST TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE LOW
ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL SET UP A FLOW OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN A BIT FOR FRIDAY BUT BEGIN TO
TRANSITION BACK UP AGAIN IN THE SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A VARIETY OF
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL ACCOMPANY IT AND THEN CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME VFR. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY. SOME QUESTION TO THE TIMING.
AT THIS TIME TRYING TO KEEP THE THREAT MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE LAKE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT TIGHT SUPPORTING WIND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING FROM THE SOUTH AND THEN BECOME
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE PERIODIC DROPS IN THE WIND BUT
THE OVERALL TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IS THE WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH THAT WE WILL NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
UNTIL THEN WINDS DO DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AS THEY BECOME NORTHERLY AND
DIMINISH EVEN FURTHER ON SATURDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
816 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE INCREASED MONDAY. DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST FLOW CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN LATE THURSDAY IN FAST ZONAL FLOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
800 PM UPDATE...
TRACKING ONE PUSH OF SHRA/TSRA THRU E PORTION OF CWA ATTM...WITH A
LULL ACROSS W ZONES. MASSAGED POPS BASED ON TRENDS AND LATEST
HRRR. WILL WATCH FOR ANOTHER IMPULSE TO ROTATE THRU IN NEXT FEW
HRS...LINGERING ACROSS SE AREAS UNTIL LATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... MUCH MORE ACTIVE AUTUMN PATTERN...AS
SPOKES OF ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAXIMUMS ROTATE AROUND THE
BROAD 500 MB TROF OVER WESTERN ONTARIO.
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WAS INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR THE CLUSTERS TO COME LATE. AS MENTIONED THIS
MORNING...HARD TO TIME THE INDIVIDUAL SHOWER/STORM CLUSTERS IN THIS
FAST FLOW. MAIN 500 MB VORT MAXIMUM ON 16Z RAP NOT PASSING INTO OUR
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES UNTIL AFTER 06Z TUESDAY. WILL HOLD LIKELY POPS
THERE MOST OF THE NIGHT. WITHOUT AN ORGANIZED SURFACE
FEATURE...LIKE A FRONT...HARD TO TIME REMOVE OF POP...BUT DROPPED
BELOW 15 PCT IN THE MID OHIO VALLEY AFTER 06Z...IN WAKE OF THAT 500
MB AXIS. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LOWER IN THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...SO WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD LOWER CLOUDS THAN SURFACE BASED
FOG FOR THE PREDAWN HOURS.
FAVORED THE FASTER 12Z GFS OVER THE SLOWER NAM FOR NEXT DISTURBANCE
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SO INCREASED POPS FASTER FROM WEST TO
EAST.
WILL FINE TUNE MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT HOUR...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY BIG
CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN THIS PERIOD. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN FAST W-NW FLOW THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROF/COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH EAST EARLY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY.
HAVE CONTINUED TREND FROM EARLIER GRIDS AS WET WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY SEASONABLE CONDITIONS BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING ON THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
BECOMING ORIENTED WEST TO EAST...FROM KENTUCKY TO VIRGINIA...UNDER
MOIST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK ITS WAY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG FRONT
JUST TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED PERIOD. DEPENDING
ON WHICH MODEL YOU PICK...BY SATURDAY...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND
THE TIMING THESE FEATURES WILL DIFFER. POPULATING WITH WPC TEMPS AND
POPS GUIDANCE WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREA OF SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA PUSHING INTO MOUNTAINS AS OF 00Z
WITH A LULL ELSEWHERE. WILL WATCH FOR ANOTHER IMPULSE TO ROTATE
THRU FROM THE W LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE SOME TEMPO IFR GROUPS FOR
THESE SHRA/TSRA NEXT SEVERAL HRS. THINGS QUIET DOWN LATER TONIGHT
WITH VARYING CIGS...PERHAPS SOME MVFR AT TIMES ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN. THINK BL WINDS SHOULD KEEP DENSE FOG AT BAY.
VFR CONDITIONS FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER IMPULSE
APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CIGS LOWERING INTO PERHAPS MVFR
WITH SHRA/TSRA AND POSSIBLE IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE AND TIMING OF LOWER CEILINGS VERSUS
DENSER FOG OVERNIGHT COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 10/07/14
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M H H H M M M M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS OR FOG OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. IFR IN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/KMC/KTB
NEAR TERM...KTB/30
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
211 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
800 PM UPDATE...
CHALLENGING FORECAST TONIGHT REGARDING FROST FORMATION. SEEMS LIKE
THESE HAZARDS ARE NEVER CLEAR CUT AROUND THESE PARTS.
QUITE A BIT OF MID DECK OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL ONLY SERVE TO
COMPLICATE TEMPS OVERNIGHT. DO THINK AS THE TROF AXIS LIFTS...S
HALF OF CWA WILL CLEAR OUT...WITH SOME CLEARING GRADUALLY WORKING
N INTO SE OH AND N WV LATE. THERE IS ALSO A WIND CONUNDRUM AS BL
WINDS STAY UP MOST OF THE NIGHT ACROSS SE OH AND N WV. THIS WOULD
TEND TO LIMIT FROST TO PROTECTED VALLEYS EVEN IF THERE IS CLEARING
LATE TONIGHT. AFTER BEEFING UP SKY GRIDS FOR TONIGHT AND
INCORPORATING HRRR TEMPS AS A BASE TO CAPTURE THE HILLS AND
HOLLOWS...ROLLED MORE WITH PATCHY VS WIDESPREAD IN SE OH AND N WV.
WILL KEEP FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES AS IS EVEN THOUGH NOT SURE N
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS HIT FREEZING MARK IF CLOUDS STAY. CAA SHOULD HAVE
NO PROBLEM WITH THE N MOUNTAIN RIDGES THOUGH. TOYED WITH ADDING
COAL FIELDS AND KANAWHA VALLEY TO FROST ADV BUT LAMP GUIDANCE AND
MET GUIDANCE AT KHTS/KCRW STAY GENERALLY ABOVE 37F WITH A HINT OF
A SURFACE WIND WITH NO INVERSION IN WEAK CAA. THIS WOULD PROBABLY
MITIGATE COUNTY WIDE AVERAGE GROUND FROST. DID PUT IN SOME FROST
IN THIS AREA FOR THE VALLEYS AND OUTLYING AREAS AS WIND SHOULD
SLACKEN THERE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
GUSTY WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES
ARE AFFECTING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THE ISOLATED
SHOWERS DROPPING SOME GRAUPEL. WIND SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FLIRT WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT. THE DEGREE IN WHICH WINDS EASE TONIGHT IS THE MAIN
FACTOR AS TO WHETHER OR NOT WE WOULD SEE FROST TONIGHT. LITTLE
MARGIN FOR ERROR HERE. IF WINDS DIE DOWN TOO MUCH WE COULD EASILY
SEE WIDESPREAD FROST AND MAYBE ISOLATED FREEZING IN SOME
LOCATIONS...SO DECIDED TO HOIST A FROST ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE KANAWHA VALLEY WHICH MAY BENEFIT
FROM SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FROM THE MORE SCATTERED DECK OF
CLOUDS TODAY. WILL LET THE EVENING SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER ONTARIO THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH
WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS SCENARIO WILL
BRING IMPULSES OF ENERGY OVER OUR AREA AS SEEN IN H5 VORTICITY
CHARTS. THEREFORE...KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY
INCREASING INTO MONDAY. FROM THIS LOW...A SERIES OF STRONG IMPULSES
WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY...CROSSING TUESDAY. THEREFORE...KEPT
LOW CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...INCREASING TO
CHANCE AND LIKELY LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS BECOME GENTLE TO STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY BRINGING A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
USED A BLEND OF ALL BLEND MOS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER
OVER ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT AND START DRIFTING EAST INTO QUEBEC
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAKING SHORTWAVES TO TRACK FURTHER
NORTH...KEEPING THEIR INFLUENCE AWAY FROM OUR AREA BY MID WEEK.
THEREFORE...EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS BY MID WEEK.
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS OUT INTO
EASTERN CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE OH VALLEY THURSDAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT WILL SETTLE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN WV. THIS FRONT
COULD BRING LOW CHANCE FOR PCPN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
WENT WITH WPC TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUNDAY THRU 06Z MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST TODAY WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING
TONIGHT. VFR CLOUDS 6000-8000FT AGL MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL SCATTER OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SOUTH
WILL BE VFR MOSTLY CLEAR.
AFTER 21Z...VFR CLOUDS 6000-8000FT AGL WILL AGAIN INCREASE FROM THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST...BECOMING
VFR CEILINGS AND OVERSPREADING MOST OF THE AREA BY 06Z TONIGHT. ANY
SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED WITH VFR BEING
MAINTAINED.
WINDS WILL BE MAINTAINED SO THAT NO EARLY MORNING FOG IS EXPECTED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 10/05/14
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005-007>011-
016>020-028>037-039-040.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ038-046-047.
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
076-083>087.
KY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...30/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1023 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW WILL RESIDE NEAR JAMES BAY CANADA THROUGH THE
MIDWEEK PERIOD BEFORE DRIFTING GRADUALLY EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
POTENT SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS LOW WILL
IMPACT PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO PENNSYLVANIA FROM
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN A
WEAK CLIPPER LOW COULD TRACK ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT CENTRAL PA
OVERNIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PULLS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP IS MISSING THE
LWR SUSQ VALLEY TO THE NORTH...BUT THE HRRR SHOWS THAT A SECOND
BATCH OF RAIN CURRENTLY OVER ERN WV COULD HOLD TOGETHER AND BRING
SOME SHOWERS TO THE LWR SUSQ OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 50S IN THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY.
A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AND COULD
REMAIN A BIT GUSTY ON THE RIDGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER EARLY TUESDAY...A MORE POTENT
WAVE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD PA LATE IN THE DAY.
PTSUNNY SKIES EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHC
OF SHOWERS TOWARD EVENING...AS STRONG WAA OVERSPREADS THE REGION
AT NOSE OF ANOMALOUS LL JET. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY SHOULD BE AOA CLIMO
AVERAGES BASED ON ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS.
THE SECOND AND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE /MARKED BY STRONG LIFT
BENEATH THE THERMALLY-INDIRECT LEFT-EXIT REGION OF A STRONG 250
MB JET/ WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS WEATHER FEATURE AND ITS ACCOMPANYING SOUTHERLY
LLJ AND NOSE OF 1-1.25 INCH PWAT AIR WILL CREATE MORE WIDESPREAD
AND OCNLY HEAVIER SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY ACROSS THE WEST...AND
MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST AREA. SREF PROB
OF 0.50 INCH OF RAIN IS NOTABLY HIGHER WITH THIS WAVE...AND PWATS
ARE A BIT HIGHER AS WELL.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF SFC-BASED
CAPE AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE 50S LATE TUESDAY/TUES
NIGHT...WITH A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO 850 MB-
BASED LIFTED INDICES. THIS WILL ENHANCE PRECIP RATES AND BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED TSRA AS THE ENERGY LIFTS NE ACROSS
THE COMMONWEALTH.
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS ON THE RIDGES...AND IN LOCATIONS JUST NORTH
OF THE RIDGE GAPS COULD BE 10 KTS OR SO HIGHER THAN MONDAY NIGHT.
PRECIP BEGINS TO DIMINISH FROM SW TO NE AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE LAST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES LIFTING NEWD INTO NEW
ENGLAND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW PATTERN IN THE EAST TRANSITIONING TO AN
AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PCPN WILL BE DURING THE LATE
WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND TIMEFRAME ASSOCD WITH A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS ACRS THE MS RIVER THRU THE OH/TN
VLYS AND INTO THE MID ATLC STATES. EACH INDIVIDUAL MODEL SHOWS
SOME VARIANCE AS TO THE NORTH/SOUTH FRONTAL (DIS)PLACEMENT WITH
THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORTING THE MIDDLE TO SRN SIDE OF
THE SPREAD. WILL CONTINUE TO EMPLOY A CONSENSUS BLEND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WHICH PLACES THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SRN TIER ON
THR NGT INTO FRI. COOL HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING FROM THE NRN PLAINS
ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL BATTLE
THE WAVY FRONTAL ZONE TO THE SOUTH AND TRY TO KEEP PCPN SUPPRESSED
TO THE SOUTH OF PA THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE NON NCEP DATA HAS
OTHER IDEAS IN STORE ESPECIALLY FOR SERN PA. OVERALL IT WILL BE
A DIFFICULT FCST UNTIL THE BOUNDARY PLACEMENT CAN BE RESOLVED.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE COUNTRY SHOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL OVER A BROADER AREA NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF CWA EARLY THIS EVENING...EXCEPT
ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER AND LOWER SUSQ. MAIN PRECIP AREA REMAINS
DRIVEN BY FORCING FROM LOW LEVEL JET CURRENTLY SLIDING NORTHWARD
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...SO TREND WILL BE FOR THIS AREA TO LIFT NE
OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ANOTHER WAVE LOOKS TO BE SNEAKING TOWARD
CENTRAL PA FROM THE SW...AND WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN OF LIGHT
RAIN TO THE REGION BETWEEN 04-08Z.
IN GENERAL...CONDITIONS VFR FOR MAJORITY OF CENTRAL PA. BUT MVFR
AREA WILL EXPAND FROM WESTERN PA INTO NORTHERN MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS TONIGHT...AND POSS BRIEFLY INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW-SE AND LIGHTEN AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...WHILE LLWS CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS 850MB
FLOW LESSENS FROM 40 KTS TO CLOSER TO 30 KTS.
EXPECT SOME CLEARING AGAIN TUES MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST LATE TUE/EARLY WED WHICH WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER SHRA/SCT TSRA.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...MVFR CIGS/SCT SHRA PSBL NW WED IMPROVING CONDITIONS WED
INTO THURS MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.
FRI...BRIEF CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS IN AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS.
SAT...VFR WITH A SCT SHOWER POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/EVANEGO
NEAR TERM...EVANEGO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/EVANEGO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
142 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE BY TO THE
SOUTH ALLOWING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY
MONDAY. COLD FRONTS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN EARLY IN THE WEEK
AND AGAIN NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 140 AM...WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AND ONLY SPOTTY LOW CLOUDS
REMAIN ACROSS THE NC MTNS. THERE IS SOME CIRRUS MOVING OVERHEAD...
BUT THIS SHUD BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. TEMPS ARE RUNNING A TAD
COOLER THAN EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE LOWERED MINS
SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE. THIS PUTS THE NRN FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT IN
POSITION TO SEE PATCHY FROST OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...CHANGES MAINLY
FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.
EVENING UPDATE...WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO CALM DOWN IN RESPONSE TO A
BROADENING P/GRAD MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW SHALLOW/STEEP SFC INVERSIONS SETTING UP WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
VERY GOOD RAD COOLING OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES
A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR MINS AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FZ.W AREA...SO WILL LEAVE PRODUCT AS IS. THE FR.Y WAS LEFT IN PLACE
AS WELL...HOWEVER TDDS COULD BE A LITTLE HIGH FOR MUCH MORE THAN
PATCHY DEVELOPMENT.
730 PM EDT UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJ TO THE COOLER OBS HR/LY
TEMPS AND TD/S. OTHERWISE...FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
430 PM EDT UPDATE...A LEE TROF BISECTING THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON HAS
MAINTAINED A FAIRLY TIGHT P/GRAD WITH GUSTY CONDS IN GOOD VERTICAL
MIXING. WIND DIRECTIONS AND GUST MAGNITUDES HAVE BEEN VARIABLE NEAR
THE TROF AXIS...SO MADE SOME ADJS TO THE GOING WIND GRIDS.
AS OF 215 PM...THE AXIS OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME ESSENTIALLY ZONAL OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...CP HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST
WILL MOVE EAST AND REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. AS
THE HIGH MOVES EAST...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND ALLOW
WINDS TO DECOUPLE. THE CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE POINTS TO
AT LEAST SCATTERED AREAS OF FREEZING TEMPS ALL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. HENCE...WILL MAINTAIN THE EXISTING FREEZE
WARNING IN THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS...AND GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A
FREEZE WARNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE FREEZE
WATCH WAS IN PLACE. IT WILL BE CHILLY NIGHT AS WELL OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS WITH LOWS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE
FOOTHILLS...AND UPPER 30S IN THE NC PIEDMONT. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER HIGH...GENERALLY >5 DEGREES SO
WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION MAY BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY. HOWEVER...
WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY IN THE FOOTHILL COUNTIES/
ZONES ADJACENT TO THE FREEZE WARNINGS WHERE MIN TEMPS WILL REACH THE
MID 30S.
ON SUNDAY...DESPITE STRONG INSOLATION HIGH TEMPS ARE STILL FORECAST
TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AS THICKNESS RECOVERY WILL BE SLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL FEATURE A MEAN
LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD...
REINFORCED BY A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES OF VARYING INTENSITY. ONE OF
THESE WAVES MAY INSTIGATE FRONTOGENESIS ALONG LARGE SCALE BAROCLINIC
ZONE IN THE TENN/OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THE MON/TUE TIME FRAME.
THE SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE SOME DEGREE OF POSITIVE BUOYANCY WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TENN VALLEY DURING THIS TIME...AND EVEN
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...WHICH WOULD
POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW FAR EAST ANY ACTIVITY WILL
PROGRESS...AS IT IS LIKELY THAT THE MOST ROBUST INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE TENN VALLEY. NEVERTHELESS...WITH A DECENT AREA OF
MID/UPPER FORCING EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY/
EARLY TUE...CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN FEATURED MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FAVORED ALONG
THE TENN BORDER.
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER...ESP IN THE MID/HIGH LEVELS
BY TUE SHOULD OFFSET ANY INCREASES IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESS UNDER A
SLOWLY WEAKENING LONG WAVE TROUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...MODELS AGREE REASONABLY WELL ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AS
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE MEAN ERN TROUGH TUE NIGHT...THAT TROUGH
FILLS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL. A WEAK
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS OVER THE UPPER TENN
VALLEY...WITH THE 12Z GFS/CMC SHOWING IT PUSHING SOUTH ARRIVING IN
BACKDOOR FASHION WED/WED NIGHT WHILE THE 00Z EC JUST WASHES IT OUT.
THIS FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPS...WHICH UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAIN AROUND CLIMO WED-THU.
WEAK SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL BRIEFLY BEFORE ANOTHER
STRONGER FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE OH/TN VALLEYS. GFS/EC DEPICT THE
POSITION AND ORIENTATION OF THIS FRONT SIMILARLY...THOUGH THE GFS
CONTINUES TO FEATURE REMNANTS OF TC SIMON ENTERING THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WED AND SUBSEQUENTLY GETTING PICKED UP BY THE MIDLATITUDE
FLOW. THIS INTRODUCES VORT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE FRONT AND
LEADS TO A SFC WAVE MOVING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY NEXT SATURDAY. THE GFS IS CORRESPONDINGLY
SOMEWHAT WETTER. THIS SOLUTION IS BACKED UP BY A FAIR NUMBER OF NAEFS
MEMBERS. OVERALL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS POPS RAMPING UP BEGINNING THU
NIGHT AND PEAKING IN CHANCE RANGE SATURDAY. TEMPS SHOULD COOL A BIT
WITH THIS SECOND FROPA BUT REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...CALM WINDS AND FEW250 EXPECTED THRU MID MORNING. WINDS
PICK UP IN SPEED AND BECOME SWLY AROUND NOON WITH INCREASING CIRRUS.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT SLY THIS EVENING WITH THICKENING CIRRUS AND
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS KCLT. KAVL THE MAIN EXCEPTION
WHERE WINDS BECOME NWLY AFTER DAYBREAK...THEN SSW BY LATE AFTERNOON.
CALM WINDS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. OTHERS WILL SEE WLY WIND BECOMING
SWLY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND LIGHT OR CALM THIS EVENING. SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE AT KAVL AND KHKY BY DAYBREAK.
OUTLOOK...CHC OF CONVECTION INCREASES MON AND TUE WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. DRY WX WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WED AND THU.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-05Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 87% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ010.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-048>053-
058-059-062>065.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ501-503-
505>507-509.
SC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ001>003.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...LG/RWH/SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...RWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1020 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.UPDATE...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL
A LITTLE SOON THAN EXPECTED. UPDATED TO SPEED UP THE TIMING ON LIKELY
POPS FOR SHOWERS ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME LESS UNSTABLE...THUS REMOVED
THE MENTION OF SEVERE FROM THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
TONIGHT BUT DID KEEP IN THE POSSIBLY OF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
JCL
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABOUT TO PUSH EASTWARD OUT OF NORTHEAST MS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. OTHERWISE JUST A FEW
SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON RADAR ACROSS THE REGION. THE HRRR MODEL
INDICATES SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING BACK INTO
THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. UPDATED THE GRIDS AND ZONES TO ADJUST THE POPS TO
CHANCE CATEGORY BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THEN WENT LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MENTIONED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
THAT A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHED WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST AR INTO
NORTHWEST TN AND WAS LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
THE FRONT CAN BE SEEN MAINLY IN THE SURFACE DEW POINT ANALYSIS
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT
TO LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S TO THE SOUTH. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN
SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES
BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/G. INCREASED THE LOW TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS...ALSO WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP SOME FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT.
UPDATED ZONES...GRIDS...AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAVE ALREADY
BEEN SENT.
JCL
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
SYNOPSIS... FRESH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 70S WITH A SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S CAPES WERE RISING INTO THE
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. USING THE HRRR OUTPUT SEE MORE SCATTERED
RAINFALL WITH PERHAPS A STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL. GFS/NAM HAVE
SUGGESTED MORE ROBUST STORMS TO DEVELOP. THERE IS LITTLE OR NO
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND THE OCTOBER DIABATIC CONTRIBUTION IS NOT
STRONG. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS
WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. SCATTERED RAINFALL IS THEN POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT.
AS THE WARM SECTOR MOVES INTO OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY WE CATCH A
BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THOUGHT MONDAY)...
ON THURSDAY THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE RAINFALL BECOMES ENHANCED
PROXIMAL TO A SLOW MOVING WEST TO EAST COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE THE REGION FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL IN
QUESTION...HOWEVER WHEN THE FRONT DOES MOVE IN TEMPERATURES AND
CONSISTENT RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY. FOR NOW THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
CONSERVATIVE WAITING FOR FUTURES MODEL RUNS BEFORE PLACING MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTCOME.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THIS FRONT THEN BEGINS TO MOVE BACK
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BELLES
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF SET
SHRA/TSRA NEAR TUP EARLY...WITH REGENERATION LATER TONIGHT AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES. FEEL THAT MKL AND TUP WILL HAVE THE BEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER ON STATION...WITH VCTS AT MEM AND JBR FOR NOW. CIGS/VIS
WILL BE VFR OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MVFR WEATHER IN HEAVIER CONVECTION.
STILL POSSIBLE THAT AN MVFR LAYER WILL ROLL IN TOWARDS SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY AFTER. THIS DECK WOULD LIKELY LIFT BACK TO VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL START OFF SOUTHWEST AT 4-8 KTS...
INCREASING TO 10 TO 14 KTS WITH HIGHER GU
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
939 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.UPDATE...FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
I WOULDN`T SAY WE WERE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE WOODS THIS EVENING
AS FAR AS STORMS BUT THINGS ARE DEFINITELY RAMPING DOWN DUE TO THE
NOCTURNAL INFLUENCES. BULK SHEAR REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE STATE
WITH ANYWHERE FROM 45-55 KTS. THIS WOULD WILL BE HELPFUL IN
ORGANIZING UPDRAFTS WITH ANYTHING THAT CAN GET FIRED BACK UP...BUT
THIS IS EXPECTED TO WANE AFTER THE MIDNIGHT HOUR AS WELL BASED ON
THE LATEST RUC GUIDANCE.
THE HRRR CONTINUES TO BE BULLISH IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF ACTIVITY
IN W KY...SPREADING INTO NORTHERN MIDDLE TN BY 08-09Z...BUT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE VORT MAX RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
EVENING`S THUNDERSTORMS HAS PULLED UP AND OUT OF THE AREA WITH
LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL SUPPORT BEHIND IT UNTIL THE MID-MORNING
HOURS.
FOR THE UPDATE..WILL BUMP POPS ACROSS THE EAST A BIT TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE SCATTERED ACTIVITY THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN THE LAST 30
MINUTES...BUT LOWER POPS ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH 12Z. EVERYTHING
ELSE LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK FOR NOW.
UPDATES ON THE WAY.
UNGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
AVIATION...
RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCT TSRA ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING TO WIDELY SCT/ISO SHRA
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS MIDDLE TN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
MVFR VIS REDUCTION TOWARD SUNRISE CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE
TAF SITES...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE DAY
TOMORROW.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
27
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
903 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABOUT TO PUSH EASTWARD OUT OF NORTHEAST MS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. OTHERWISE JUST A FEW
SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON RADAR ACROSS THE REGION. THE HRRR MODEL
INDICATES SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING BACK INTO
THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. UPDATED THE GRIDS AND ZONES TO ADJUST THE POPS TO
CHANCE CATEGORY BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THEN WENT LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MENTIONED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
THAT A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHED WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST AR INTO
NORTHWEST TN AND WAS LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
THE FRONT CAN BE SEEN MAINLY IN THE SURFACE DEW POINT ANALYSIS
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT
TO LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S TO THE SOUTH. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN
SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES
BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/G. INCREASED THE LOW TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS...ALSO WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP SOME FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT.
UPDATED ZONES...GRIDS...AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAVE ALREADY
BEEN SENT.
JCL
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
SYNOPSIS... FRESH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 70S WITH A SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S CAPES WERE RISING INTO THE
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. USING THE HRRR OUTPUT SEE MORE SCATTERED
RAINFALL WITH PERHAPS A STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL. GFS/NAM HAVE
SUGGESTED MORE ROBUST STORMS TO DEVELOP. THERE IS LITTLE OR NO
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND THE OCTOBER DIABATIC CONTRIBUTION IS NOT
STRONG. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS
WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. SCATTERED RAINFALL IS THEN POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT.
AS THE WARM SECTOR MOVES INTO OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY WE CATCH A
BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THOUGHT MONDAY)...
ON THURSDAY THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE RAINFALL BECOMES ENHANCED
PROXIMAL TO A SLOW MOVING WEST TO EAST COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE THE REGION FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL IN
QUESTION...HOWEVER WHEN THE FRONT DOES MOVE IN TEMPERATURES AND
CONSISTENT RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY. FOR NOW THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
CONSERVATIVE WAITING FOR FUTURES MODEL RUNS BEFORE PLACING MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTCOME.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THIS FRONT THEN BEGINS TO MOVE BACK
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BELLES
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF SET
SHRA/TSRA NEAR TUP EARLY...WITH REGENERATION LATER TONIGHT AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES. FEEL THAT MKL AND TUP WILL HAVE THE BEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER ON STATION...WITH VCTS AT MEM AND JBR FOR NOW. CIGS/VIS
WILL BE VFR OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MVFR WEATHER IN HEAVIER CONVECTION.
STILL POSSIBLE THAT AN MVFR LAYER WILL ROLL IN TOWARDS SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY AFTER. THIS DECK WOULD LIKELY LIFT BACK TO VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL START OFF SOUTHWEST AT 4-8 KTS...
INCREASING TO 10 TO 14 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
639 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
FRESH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S WITH
A SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S CAPES WERE RISING INTO THE
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. USING THE HRRR OUTPUT SEE MORE SCATTERED
RAINFALL WITH PERHAPS A STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL. GFS/NAM HAVE
SUGGESTED MORE ROBUST STORMS TO DEVELOP. THERE IS LITTLE OR NO
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND THE OCTOBER DIABATIC CONTRIBUTION IS NOT
STRONG. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS
WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. SCATTERED RAINFALL IS THEN POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT.
AS THE WARM SECTOR MOVES INTO OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY WE CATCH A
BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THOUGHT MONDAY)...
ON THURSDAY THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE RAINFALL BECOMES ENHANCED
PROXIMAL TO A SLOW MOVING WEST TO EAST COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE THE REGION FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL IN
QUESTION...HOWEVER WHEN THE FRONT DOES MOVE IN TEMPERATURES AND
CONSISTENT RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY. FOR NOW THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
CONSERVATIVE WAITING FOR FUTURES MODEL RUNS BEFORE PLACING MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTCOME.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THIS FRONT THEN BEGINS TO MOVE BACK
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BELLES
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF SET
SHRA/TSRA NEAR TUP EARLY...WITH REGENERATION LATER TONIGHT AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES. FEEL THAT MKL AND TUP WILL HAVE THE BEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER ON STATION...WITH VCTS AT MEM AND JBR FOR NOW. CIGS/VIS
WILL BE VFR OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MVFR WEATHER IN HEAVIER CONVECTION.
STILL POSSIBLE THAT AN MVFR LAYER WILL ROLL IN TOWARDS SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY AFTER. THIS DECK WOULD LIKELY LIFT BACK TO VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL START OFF SOUTHWEST AT 4-8 KTS...
INCREASING TO 10 TO 14 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON TUESDAY.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
800 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MID
APPALACHIAN AND MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...PRECEDED
AND ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE GREATEST ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...BRINING A RETURN TO DRY AND MILD WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 710 PM EDT MONDAY...
TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING...ONE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF NC INTO FAR SW VA MOVING NE TOWARD THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND VA
FOOTHILLS...WITH DEEPER CONVECTION WITH THUNDER HEADING TOWARD
THE SE WV MTNS. THESE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME GUSTY
WINDS AT LEAST THROUGH 10 PM. 5H 60 KNOT SPEED MAX IS CURRENTLY
OVER ERN KY AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS WV THROUGH MID EVENING...AND
THINK MAIN THREAT WILL STAY IN OUR SE WV COUNTIES AND TOWARD BATH
COUNTY VA FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS. FURTHER SOUTH SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE EVENING...AND WILL MODIFY POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR BETTER COVERAGE EARLY ON. THE LATEST HRRR WEAKENS THE
SRN AREA OF SHOWERS AS IT MOVES INTO THE PIEDMONT BY 10 PM...WHILE
BRINGING CONVECTION THAT IS OVER THE TN VALLEY INTO THE SW MTNS OF
VA/NC AROUND MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR COOLER RAIN COOLED
AIR IN THE WEST WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 4 PM...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH ADVANCE OF LEAD SHORT
WAVE TROF ROTATING AROUND BASE OF UPPER TROF THAT STILL REMAINS
OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY.
LATEST SHORT-RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT BULK
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WHERE WARM MOIST ADVECTION IS MAXIMIZED. FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...SOME SPILL-OVER LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY REACH INTO
THE FOOTHILL REGION EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT PROXIMITY TO DEEPER
DRIER AIR ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP MOST
AREAS DRY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT TO SEE GRADUAL REDUCTION OF PRECIPITATION
ACTIVITY...EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS...BY MID TO LATE EVENING WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT SUFFICIENT WARM MOIST AIR OVER
DEEPENING INVERSION LAYER MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST
A CONTINUED LOW THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL LATE NIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MAY BE COOLEST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHERE
LESS CLOUD COVER AND SOME BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING MAY
OCCUR...WITH MILDER READINGS BEING MAINTAINED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE MORE CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHERE BOTH CLOUDS AND A MIXING WIND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT READINGS/LOWS TO NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH FROM
WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN WET-BULBED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S-MID 50S
IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY TO FALL BACK FROM THE 70S TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...RESULTING IN A VERY HOMOGENEOUS AIRMASS FROM WEST TO
EAST DESPITE ELEVATIONAL DIFFERENCES.
WEATHER ON TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE COMPARABLE TO THAT OF TODAY...WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL GRADUALLY
SHEAR OUT AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST AS UPPER TROF LIFTS WITH IT...BUT
ARRIVAL OF GLANCING BLOW OF DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO REACH FORECAST AREA DURING TIME OF BEST
HEATING...SO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AGAIN EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AT BEST..AND DESPITE
MARGINAL SHEAR...BETTER SUPPORT FOR STRONG STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY DISPLAYED TO THE NORTH AND WEST THAT ONLY GUSTY WINDS
FROM MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF HIGHER WINDS ALOFT...PERHAPS TO 40-45
MPH IN SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS...MIGHT BE ALL THAT CAN BE
EXPECTED AT THE PRESENT TIME. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS APPEAR
TO BE MEAGER ENOUGH AT THIS POINT THAT NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS
SHOULD EXIST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FINAL WAVE.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE LARGELY INFLUENCED BY EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER AND TIMING/ARRIVAL OF ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM
SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS. COOLEST READINGS IN UPPER 50S TO UPPER
60S ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS...RANGING UP TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE BETTER INSOLATION AND A LATER
ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION THREAT IS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...
UPPER LOW REMAINING OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WITH A SHORT WAVE LIFTING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY NIGHT. AT
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SEEING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT.
WILL KEEP HIGH PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING.
GUIDANCE SHOWED STRONG Q-VECTOR FORCING UNTIL 12Z WEDNESDAY. A DEEP
LAYER OF DRY AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION AND SHORT WAVE
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DROP TO AROUND 0.5 INCHES. WPC WAS FAVORING THE TIMING OF A
NAM/ECMWF BLEND FOR THIS SHORT WAVE.
500 MB PATTERN FLATTENS AND BECOMES ZONAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
THIS SHOULD SET UP INCREASING INFLOW OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL
BE CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA ON THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE IT MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY EVENING. WILL BE LOWERING MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE DRY AIR MASS AND WITH WINDS
DROPPING OFF. WILL HAVE CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...
NEXT SIGNIFICANT TROF COMES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. EXPECTING AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY THAT GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE FRONT IN
ADVANCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IN THE WEDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT MONDAY...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT WILL BE SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. AT THIS MOMENT THE
STRONGER WINDS ARE ACROSS ERN KY INTO WRN WV...WHERE A NARROW LINE
OF DEEP CONVECTION IS MOVING. THINK LWB AND PERHAPS BLF MAY BE IN
LINE TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE 00Z-02Z TIME FRAME. FURTHER
EAST WILL SEE SITUATION WHERE SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED...THOUGH
AREA MOVING UP FROM THE NC MTNS SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER IMPACTING
BCB/ROA/LYH THIS EVENING BUT OVERALL NO WORSE THAN TEMPO MVFR
VSBYS.
OVERNIGHT...STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS HAVE MORE SHOWERS ARRIVING
FROM THE WEST AND MAINLY IMPACTING THE BLF/LWB AND PERHAPS ROA/BCB
CORRIDOR. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB VFR IS
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER SO HAVE BLF/LWB COMING DOWN TO MVFR OVERNIGHT
AND EVEN INTO BCB. WINDS WILL STAY MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM
BECOMING IFR OR WORSE.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO/TN VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE TO STEER
UPPER DISTURBANCES ACROSS INTO TUESDAY WITH MAIN FRONT NOT MOVING
INTO THE REGION UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN THREAT
IN THE MTNS BY LATE MORNING MOVING OUT EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ATTM...NO THUNDER ADDED TO THE TAFS. AFTER ANY MORNING FOG/MVFR
CIGS WILL SEE MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR OR WORSE IN RAIN...THOUGH
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO HAVE IFR GIVEN GOOD SW FLOW KEEPING CIGS
MIXED ABOVE 1KFT.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS (EXCLUDING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN SOME OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN
VALLEY SPOTS...SUCH AS AT/NEAR KLWB...KBCB) FOR WEDNESDAY INTO AT
LEAST THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE IMPINGES ON THE
AREA FROM THE WEST LATER THURSDAY OR ON FRIDAY. SUB VFR LOOKS
LIKELY TOWARD SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND SFC HIGH
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES SETTING UP A WEDGE SCENARIO.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WERT
NEAR TERM...WERT/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...WERT/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
919 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.UPDATE...REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TNT WITH AREAS OF PCPN
EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH WHERE VORTICITY MAXIMUMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH. SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING A ROUND OF SFC-850 MB WARM
ADVECTION TNT BUT LOW LEVEL ATM REMAINS DRY. SHOULD STILL SEE
BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING AND
LASTING INTO TUE AM. A DRY COLD FRONT TO THEN MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS SRN WI FROM THE MID MORNING TO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
THE MAJORITY OF THE COLD ADVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TUE NIGHT.
THUS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S BY TUE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TUE AND TUE NT. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND BECOME BROKEN BY LATE
MON EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL BECOME SCATTERED
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON TUE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 00Z
WITH SHORT WAVE TONIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A VERY LIGHT SHOWER OR
SPRINKLES BUT THE STRONGER 700 MB OMEGA STAYS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...REFLECTED IN THE MAJORITY OF THE
MODEL QPF FIELD...SO NOTHING MEASURABLE EXPECTED. CLOUDS AND WEAK
WARM ADVECTION WILL HOLD LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S.
DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A MID DECK IN THE SOUTHWEST...
BUT SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S IN THE SOUTH HALF...WITH
AROUND 60 READINGS INT EH NORTH HALF OF THE CWA GIVEN MIXING UP TO
FORECAST 925 MB TEMPERATURES.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS WISCONSIN TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE STRONG JET MAX WHICH WAS UPSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS
PUSHES EAST ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WEAK
MAINLY DOWNWARD MOTION AT 700 MB WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER BELOW A DEVELOPING ISOTHERMAL
LAYER AROUND 5 THSD FT TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE RISING TO 7 THSD FT
WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH A RESULTING
INVERSION. MAIN CONCERN IS WITH CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS POTENTIAL
WITH THE NARROW MOIST LAYER. NAM MOS SHOWING CLEARING SKIES
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS WEDNESDAY. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
A POTENTIAL OF A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE WEST/NORTHWEST AS THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS JAMES BAY CANADA. SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET MAX LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER
DIVERGENCE. HOWEVER 700 MB UPWARD MOTION IS ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.
THE GFS AND NAM ARE DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ALTHOUGH THE 00Z
ECMWF STILL BRINGS SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. PREFER THE DRIER MORE SOUTH
MODELS. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH.
LONG TERM...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
THE MODELS ARE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER AND THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED
TOWARD THE GFS IN A WEAKER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST U.S.
FRIDAY THAT REACHES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.
THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS/DGEX WITH KEEPING THE HIGH
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BE A GOOD SETUP
FOR LATE NIGHT FROST BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS A LITTLE MORE 850 MB RH WHICH COULD KEEP
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS INTO THE NORTHEAST AREAS TOWARD
FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE MODELS BEGIN TO FORM AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THE 00Z ECMWF LIFTS THE SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO THE TROUGH...WITH THE GFS TAKING
THIS EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH. THE
00Z ECMWF IS STRONGER.
THE SURFACE PATTERNS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF HAVING
A DOUBLE STRUCTURE TO THE LOW AND IS FASTER WITH THE
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY. BY MONDAY EVENING THE ECMWF HAS AN OCCLUDED
LOW IN THE LAKE SUPERIOR VICINITY WITH THE GFS AT A SIMILAR
LOCATION...BUT WITH THE LOW STILL IN THE CYCLOGENISIS PROCESS.
THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOW TRENDING SLOWER WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERN LOW.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
BACK EDGE OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS BETWEEN 4500 AND
5000 FT NEARING KMSN AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AS IT
CLEARS TO THE EAST BY 00Z. SURFACE WINDS...WHICH HAVE BEEN GUSTING
TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL ALSO DIMINISH.
THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS SET UP CONDITIONS FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING IN THE WEST AND SPREADING EAST AROUND
06Z...AND LINGERING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS RAP AND NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS BETWEEN 600 FT AND 2K FT OF THE
SURFACE INCREASE TO 34-36 KTS BETWEEN 05Z AND 14Z AS THE WAVE MOVES
IN SO WILL ADD LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO FORECAST...STARTING AND
ENDING EARLIER AT KMSN VERSUS THE EASTERN SITES.
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER 00Z WITH SHORT WAVE TONIGHT BRINGS
A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE BUT MOST OF THE
BETTER FORCING STAYS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF TAF
LOCATIONS...SO WILL LEAVE OUT.
MARINE...
WINDS GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS... THOUGH
A FEW GUSTS MAY REACH CRITERIA...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE FREQUENT
ENOUGH FOR A HEADLINE. THE OFFSHORE FETCH WILL KEEP THE WAVES AT
OR BELOW 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHER WAVES TOWARD OPEN WATER.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HENTZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
622 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HAS LEAD TO COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH MUCH OF THE SAME ON THE WAY AS
THIS CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW STALLS OUT OVER ONTARIO. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL ROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW TONIGHT AND
BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE THE LIFT FROM
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE STRONGEST AND MOISTURE WILL BE A
TAD DEEPER. 06.12Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS LOOK FAIRLY DRY ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION...SO IT SHOULD BE HARD FOR ANY RAIN TO REACH
THE GROUND DESPITE WHAT THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SHOWN.
THE MAIN PERIOD FOR THESE SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE FROM LATE EVENING
TO AROUND MIDNIGHT IN WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STAY UP
AROUND WHERE THEY WERE TODAY WITH SURFACE WINDS COMING AROUND TO
THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMING GUSTY BETWEEN 20-30MPH. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD GOING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
STAYING RIGHT AROUND WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TRENDS ARE FOR THE
SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING TO GO FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH WITH THE 06.12Z CANADIAN BEING THE ONLY MODEL STILL
SHOWING ANY RAIN MAKING IT INTO NORTHEAST IOWA/SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THERE IS A FAIRLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL THAT A BROAD RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY.
WITH A COOL AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE AND THIS HIGH OVERHEAD...IT
SHOULD BE A DECENT SETUP FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS. QUESTIONS START TO ARISE FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SUNDAY
LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY THAT THE RAIN WILL BE IN HERE AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
ABUNDANT UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN CEILINGS LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN THE 6000 TO 7000 FT AGL RANGE. CLOUDS MAY
SCATTER OUT A BIT FOR PORTIONS OF TUESDAY BEFORE A RETURN TO BKN
VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06.16Z. SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 10 KTS
OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH TUESDAY AFTERNOON GUSTS FROM 20 TO 25 KTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
415 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.CURRENTLY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES EXTENDS ACROSS ERN GA WITH A SFC
TROUGH OVER THE WRN ATLC ABOUT 80 MILES OFFSHORE. RADAR SHOWS A
FEW SHOWERS NEAR THIS TROUGH BUT WILL LIKELY STAY JUST E OF THE
MARINE ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS ARE HOLD MAINLY IN THE 60S
UNDER A CANOPY OF CIRRUS. ANTICIPATE SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG OVER
INLAND SE GA BASED ON CURRENT SFC OBS AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE.
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SE CONUS EARLY
TODAY WILL SHIFT EWD AND OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WHILE
LINGERING STILL ACROSS N CENTRAL FL THIS EVENING. PLENTIFUL UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TODAY WILL PIVOT E AND CLEAR
ACROSS MOST OF SE GA IN THE AFTN. SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ALSO AVAILABLE FOR SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BUT SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
SHOULD PREVENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. A SLIGHT EXCEPTION MAY BE
ACROSS MARION...PUTNAM AND FLAGLER WHERE SREF AND RAP INDICATE A
STRAY SHOWER BUT THINK PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE INTO
THE FCST. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR IN PLACE TO INHIBIT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S...AND STAYED CLOSE TO A
BLEND OF MODEL CONSENSUS OR A DEG OR SO BELOW THE BLEND.
TONIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MORE CLEAR AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCD
CIRRUS SHIELD PASSES WELL E OF THE AREA THOUGH MAY STILL SEE SOME
THIN CIRRUS STREAMING IN ON NW FLOW. TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER
60S MOST LOCATIONS. CALM WINDS...FAIRLY DECENT RADIATION INVERSION
AND ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD EARLY
MORNING.
WEDNESDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSES IN OVER NRN CENTRAL
FL WITH HIGH PRES AT SFC OVER SRN GA AND NRN FL. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH SE GA WITH A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF
IT. NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT RAIN SO WILL KEEP
AREA RAIN-FREE ATTM. MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.
INCREASED THICKNESSES AND LESS CLOUD COVER SHOULD ENABLE WARMER
HIGHS...INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAKENING BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER SOUTHEAST GA AS
LOW AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS OVER OUR REGION. MID AND HIGH
ALTITUDE CLOUDINESS DRIFTING THROUGH OUR REGION IN A NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION ON THURSDAY
MORNING DESPITE CALM WINDS AND SLOWLY INCREASING DEWPOINTS. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 60S AT THE COAST.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL BECOME
ANCHORED OVER OUR REGION...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT
IN LIGHT NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS DEVELOPING BY THURS
AFTERNOON...WITH GRADUALLY DEEPENING ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA ON THURS AFTERNOON...BUT
A SUPPRESSED ATMOSPHERE ARGUES FOR SILENT 10% POPS IN THE FORECAST
GRIDS FOR THESE LOCATIONS. DEEPENING ONSHORE WINDS MAY DEVELOP A FEW
COASTAL SHOWERS BY LATE FRI NIGHT...WHICH COULD ADVECT INTO THE
NORTHEAST FL COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARDS SUNRISE ON SAT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY PATTERN TO
PREVAIL...WITH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG PROBABILITIES
INCREASING FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO...WITH UPPER 80S INLAND. ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S AT THE BEACHES. EXPECT LOWS INLAND TO FALL TO THE
LOW/MID 60S AS WINDS BECOME CALM AFTER SUNSET...WHILE ONSHORE WINDS
KEEP LOWS NEAR 70 FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
RIDGING ALOFT WITH ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND LOCALLY.
ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
ADVECTING INTO INLAND NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. COVERAGE IN THESE AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS INLAND REACHING THE UPPER 80S...WHILE ONSHORE
WINDS KEEP COASTAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. GRADUAL MOISTENING WILL
RESULT IN LOWS SLOWLY WARMING EACH NIGHT...WITH MID 60S EXPECTED
INLAND AND LOWER 70S AT THE COAST. ENHANCED LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG PROBABILITIES WILL PERSIST FOR INLAND LOCATIONS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO DELAY THE TIMING OF THE NEXT
TROUGH ALOFT/FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING OUR REGION UNTIL AT LEAST
LATE TUES. LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE OF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP A DIURNAL PATTERN OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN PLACE FOR MON...WITH MORNING COVERAGE NEAR THE
COAST...SHIFTING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. A COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGHING SHOULD APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES BY LATE TUES...AND WE DEPICTED SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES IN THE FORECAST GRIDS REGION-WIDE. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CONTINUE AS OUR REGION REMAINS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST LATE TUES.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AT OR ABOVE 25000 FT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. SOME SCT CU
EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE AFTN BUT WILL BE ABOVE MVFR FLIGHT LEVEL.
&&
.MARINE...RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT ABOUT 10 KT OR LESS
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGH PRES AT SFC IN CONTROL. SEAS AROUND 2 TO
3 FEET. A WEAK COOL FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA WED NIGHT AND THU
BUT LARGELY DISSIPATES NEAR SRN GA. SFC HIGH PRES RE-BUILDS N OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH PREVAILING ELY FLOW EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME
FROM A INCREASED ELY WIND FETCH.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW TO MODERATE RISK TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TIDES...ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO PERIGEE AND
FULL MOON. NOTED WIDE TIDAL RANGES OF ABOUT 8.7 FEET ALONG THE SE
GA COAST THIS MORNING...ABOUT 6.2 FT NEAR MAYPORT. WITH NO MEANINGFUL
WIND FORCING TO ENHANCE WATER LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO
STATEMENTS ARE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 84 60 88 63 / 0 0 10 10
SSI 81 66 84 68 / 0 0 10 10
JAX 84 62 86 65 / 0 0 10 10
SGJ 83 66 84 68 / 10 0 10 10
GNV 85 60 88 63 / 10 10 10 10
OCF 86 62 88 64 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHASHY/NELSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
137 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014/
ACTIVE 500MB PATTERN THROUGH TOMORROW FOR THE CWFA. CURRENTLY...A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN ALABAMA. THIS
FEATURE HAS HELPED TO FIRE/SUSTAIN CONVECTION THAT IS MOVING
INTO NW GA THIS EVENING AND TO STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SMALL
HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH EARLIER STORMS...AND ANTICIPATE
ADDITIONAL REPORTS AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH.
MODELS DO TYPICALLY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME LATCHING ONTO THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THESE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES. EARLIER RUNS
OF THE HRRR AND WRF DID NOT INITIALIZE VERY WELL. LATER RUNS OF
THE HRRR SEEM TO HAVE INITIALIZED A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE CURRENT
FEATURE...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON LATER CONVECTION EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
DID END UP TWEAKING POPS A BIT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS MODELS SHOW
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
THAT IS CURRENTLY ANCHORED DOWN THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.
A DISTURBANCE THAT SPARKED CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH GA THIS
MORNING HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD... BUT ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
THAT IS CURRENTLY SPARKING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW
MOVING BACK ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH GA... TO INCLUDE THE FAR NORTHERN
METRO AREA. LOCAL HIRES MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON ANY OF
THESE DISTURBANCES... BUT SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THIS LATEST
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH NE THIS EVENING... ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THAT COULD SPREAD MORE CONVECTION INTO NW GA
LATER TONIGHT. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY SPREAD
DOWN INTO THE ATLANTA AREA BY 9-10 AM TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE MODELS HINT AT THE DRIVING UPPER SUPPORT FINALLY
LIFTING OUT TO THE NE SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR INTO THE
EVENING. FOR NOW... WILL HOLD ONTO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL GA THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... WITH INCREASING CHANCES ACROSS NW GA
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE. WILL SPREAD THIS HIGHER
POP DOWN INTO NORTH ATLANTA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE LIFTING THE HIGHER POPS OUT LATE ON TUESDAY.
THEREFORE... EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM
ATLANTA AREA NORTHWARD FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY PUSHES EAST. THIS
DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT TO NEAR NORTH GA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... AND
WILL WARRANT HOLDING ONTO A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTH GA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
SAGS ALONG THE TN/GA STATE LINE BY 6-7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL... SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW A 5 PERCENT
CHANCE ACROSS PARTS OF NW GA INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH
INCREASING AFTERNOON CAPE AND MODERATE SHEAR VALUES AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES NOTED... JUST CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS... WITH LARGE HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER... MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN WELL UNDER
SEVER LIMITS WITH SMALL HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT INTO THE
EVENING. SPC IS HOLDING ONTO A 5 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS NW GA AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE LATER TONIGHT. HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE AS WELL...AND MAINLY ACROSS NW GA.
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER SEVERE LIMITS ACROSS THE ATLANTA METRO
AREA ON TUESDAY... BUT GENERAL THUNDER IS EXPECTED.
AS FOR TEMPS... A MAV AND MET BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD... WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS AND HIGHS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... THEN WARMER THAN NORMAL LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.
39
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT A WHOLE LOT IN THE WAY OF CHANGES FOR THE EXTENDED. THE ECMWF
ESPECIALLY IS LINGERING SOME MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING SO DID ADD SOME LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS /SHOWER WORDING ONLY/. OTHERWISE JUST A REFRESH OF DATA FOR
THE 4TH AND 5TH PERIODS...NEW BLENDS OF DEWPOINTS ARE A LITTLE
DRIER BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT. STILL SOME CONCERN ABOUT HOW WET THIS
WEEKEND MIGHT BE. ECMWF STILL KEEPS MOISTURE A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH AND THE 12Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON QPF VALUES BUT
OBVIOUSLY STILL TOO FAR OUT TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES. HAVE LEFT
POPS AT HIGH CHANCES FOR NOW. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
TDP
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014/
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN UNDERGOES A SIGNIFICANT DE-AMPLIFICATION AS WE
HEAD INTO THE THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH ESSENTIALLY ZONAL
FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE PERIOD. START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOKS MAINLY DRY BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOVE BACK IN BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AND STAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS IS TYPICAL WITH SUCH A FLAT
UPPER-LEVEL SCHEME...NO SIGNIFICANT FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO COME ALONG
BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK WAVES
RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. CENTRAL GEORGIA APPEARS MAINLY DRY
TO START THE PERIOD...BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SOME BY THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ONTO THE REGION. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH NOT SPECTACULAR...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO ACCOMPANY THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
AT THIS TIME THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR OR
INSTABILITY FOR MORE THAN GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FUTURE TRENDS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS BETTER SHEAR IS NOT TOO FAR NORTH OF THE
STATE AND LAPSE RATES DO STEEPEN A LITTLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
20
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATE TSRA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ATL AREA WITH
ATL REMAINING JUST OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN...BUT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A
VCSH. ELSEWHERE NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. COULD SEE
SOME DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH AS MOST OF THE SHOWERS/TSRA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
ATL/AHN AREAS. CSG/MCN SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH WESTERLY WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KTS...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN ATL/AHN.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF CONVECTION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.
17
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 53 77 59 82 / 20 40 20 5
ATLANTA 58 78 63 81 / 30 40 20 5
BLAIRSVILLE 51 69 57 77 / 60 60 50 20
CARTERSVILLE 55 77 60 82 / 50 60 20 10
COLUMBUS 56 82 62 85 / 20 20 5 5
GAINESVILLE 56 74 61 79 / 40 50 30 5
MACON 53 82 61 86 / 10 20 5 5
ROME 55 77 58 83 / 60 60 20 5
PEACHTREE CITY 52 79 58 83 / 20 30 10 5
VIDALIA 55 84 62 85 / 5 10 5 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1208 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
341 PM CDT
OVERALL A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF THE
AREA THIS WEEK. THE LARGE UPPER LOW PARKED SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY THAT
USHERED IN ALL THIS COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WOBBLE AWAY TO
THE EAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND EVENTUALLY OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN ITS PRESENCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FELT...WITH THE AREA REMAINING JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
AVERAGE FOR EARLY TO MID OCTOBER. ADDITIONALLY...SHORTWAVES
SPINNING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
RAIN THIS WEEK...PRIMARILY TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW AND THEN
AGAIN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE ALOFT...A WEAK
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT SOME BRIEF SHOWERS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO LIMIT COOLING WITH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON THIS FEATURE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST...LEAVING COOL
WESTERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
BY DAYTIME THURSDAY A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES...BUT THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED BOTH BY MEAGER
MOISTURE TOWARD THE WISCONSIN LINE AS WELL AS SUBSIDENCE FROM A DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SETTLED
OVER THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR BUT TEMPERATURES COOL UNTIL THE
RETURN FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS FEATURE BEGINS TO SET UP LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY COMES AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THIS
MAY ALSO HOLD OFF TILL MONDAY.
LENNING
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST BY AROUND MIDDAY
TUESDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING IN MAGNITUDE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS WHEN DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN SOME GUSTINESS. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TONIGHT HAS ALREADY KICKED OFF SHOWERS
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR...BUT GYY MAY BE CLOSE TO A FEW OF
THESE SHOWERS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DIGGING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT WILL ARRIVE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON TUESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
FOR THE CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHC OF RAIN...PATCHY MVFR OR IFR WITH RAIN.
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...CHC OF RAIN IN THE EVENING.
SUNDAY...CHC OF RAIN.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
334 PM CDT
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...AS A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS SITUATED MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE STRONGEST
WINDS TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTH HALF...UNTIL THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS WHEN A WEAK TROUGH AXIS PUSHED THROUGH THE FAR PORTION OF
THE LAKE. THIS RESULTED IN A QUICK INCREASE IN SPEEDS UP TO 15 TO
25 KT AND EVEN GUSTS UP TO 30 KT OUT OF THE WEST SOUTHWEST.
ALTHOUGH THESE STRONGER WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ESPECIALLY FOR THE INDIANA SHORE...DO
THINK THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHT DIMINISHING TREND OVER THE NEXT
ONE TO TWO HOURS. WITH THIS QUICK INCREASE IN SPEEDS AND NOW WAVES
FOR THE INDIANA SHORE...DID START THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIANA SHORE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO OBSERVE
ANOTHER INCREASING TREND MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT...MAINTAINED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINING
AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ALL AREAS OVER THE LAKE
WILL OBSERVE THIS INCREASING TREND...WITH WINDS TO 30 KT LIKELY
TONIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1136 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 733 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
Made some minor updates to the going forecast for tonight, mainly
to decrease thunder wording. Next short-wave embedded within broad
northwesterly flow pattern is currently streaking southeastward
out of the Northern Plains: however, this feature does not appear
to be as potent on water vapor imagery as the first system that
tracked across southern Illinois into the Ohio River Valley this
afternoon. 00z/7pm satellite/radar mosaic shows clouds and a few
light showers developing upstream across Nebraska into western
Iowa. 18z NAM and latest HRRR models both spread showers into
west-central Illinois by mid to late evening, then across the
remainder of the area overnight. Forecast soundings show ample
moistening aloft, but maintain dry layer near the surface. In
addition, mid-level lapse rates remain marginal for thunder. As a
result, have removed thunder entirely across the north and
included only isolated thunder along/south of a Rushville to
Robinson line overnight as this area will be closer to the track
of the 500mb vort max and strongest lift. Have also adjusted temps
to go with lows in the upper 40s to around 50 by midnight, with
steady or even slowly rising temps overnight as thicker clouds and
precip arrive.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
A weather disturbance has produced some isolated storms with small
hail south of a line from Taylorville to Mattoon this afternoon.
That train of showers and storms may linger into the early evening
south of I-70, before dissipating. Quickly on the heels of that
system will be a strong shortwave rolling out of the Plains. It is
expected to affect at least the southern half of IL tonight. Showers
appear likely SW of a line from Rushville to Shelbyville after
midnight, with rain chances extending across all of central and
southeast IL by morning. A few thunderstorms will be possible with
the overnight shortwave, as mid-level instability appears favorable
for stronger updrafts. Increasing clouds and steady S-SW winds will
help keep low temps warmer than last night, with readings in the low
50s south and around 50 north.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
A fast moving shortwave from late tonight will continue to trigger
showers Tuesday morning east of the Illinois River. A few
thunderstorms will be possible from the vigorous shortwave. Steep
lapse rates will help fuel stronger updrafts, pushing more moisture
above the freezing level. By afternoon, nearly all of the showers
should push into Indiana, leaving some clearing from west to east as
the dry mid-level air mixes into the cloud layer. Another period of
gusty west winds are on tap behind the weather disturbance, with
afternoon gusts of 20-30 mph. The afternoon sunshine will help push
high temps into the low 70s south of I-72, and in the upper 60s
north of I-72.
The long wave upper trough over the eastern CONUS will make gradual
progress eastward on Wednesday, allowing for plenty of sunshine and
another day of high temps near normal, in the upper 60s to low 70s.
West winds will be less gusty as high pressure builds into IL and
the pressure gradient weakens.
Wednesday night, a northern stream shortwave will merger with
southern stream energy to trigger showers starting later in the
evening southwest of Canton to Effingham, then expanding across the
remainder of our forecast area after midnight. As moisture from the
remnants of Pacific Storm Simon merges with the storm system on
Thursday into Thursday night, rainfall rates are likely to increase
across our southern counties, especially south of I-72.
There remains some agreement in the GFS and ECMWF that high pressure
will build into Illinois Friday and Friday night, providing a break
in the rainfall. Model differences show up after that, as the ECMWF
is more aggressive with southern stream waves pulling the stalled
frontal boundary north into Illinois, triggering several waves of
rain through the weekend and into early next week. The GFS keeps the
storm track south of IL, keeping our forecast area completely dry
until as late as Monday night. For now, we trended a little lower
with PoPs next weekend, and will hope for better agreement in the
coming model runs.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
04z/11pm radar imagery shows showers spreading across west-central
Illinois as weak short-wave approaches from the west. Based on
trajectory of 500mb vort max and recent radar loops, it appears
the most widespread shower activity will be focused south of the
I-74 corridor. Have opted to carry predominant showers at
KSPI/KDEC/KCMI through the night, with showers ending from west to
east between 14z and 17z. Further north, will only mention VCSH at
the remaining terminals overnight. Once the wave passes to the
east, skies will partially clear on Tuesday. Thanks to a decent
pressure gradient, gusty W/NW winds will develop as well.
Forecast soundings suggest gusts increasing to between 20 and 25kt
from late morning through the afternoon. Diurnal cloudiness will
dissipate and winds will diminish to less than 10kt by sunset.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
453 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
NEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TAKING PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. NONE OF THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE
REALLY BEEN PICKING UP ON THIS ACTIVITY...SO THE FORECAST GRIDS
THROUGH 12Z TODAY WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS IN RADAR
IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE REGION. THE FORECAST FROM
12Z TODAY THROUGH 0Z THURSDAY WAS HANDLED BEST BY A COMBINATION OF
THE HRRR MODEL AND A MODIFIED VERSION OF THE LATEST CONSALL RUN.
AFTER THE CURRENT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FINALLY MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE
ACTION THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. AFTER THAT...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FIRE QUICKLY...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE
BASED OF A MUCH LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT. CURRENT OBS
ARE ALSO SUGGESTING THE PRESENCE OF SOME SORT OF WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ALSO
PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FORCING MECHANISM FOR SHOWER AND STORM
FORMATION LATER THIS MORNING. THAT ALL BEING SAID...THE MOST ACTIVE
PART OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. THE MOST INTENSE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
DURING PEAK HEATING AND WHILE A 40 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM.
SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTING WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR TODAY.
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PROBABLY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE SHIFTING OF WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OFF TO OUR EAST. HIGHS TODAY AND
TOMORROW SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 70 WITH TONIGHTS LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUES TO LOOK IN THE OFFING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY AS A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GET HUNG UP ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT AND INDIVIDUAL BOUTS OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF MORE DUE TO ITS BETTER CONTINUITY
COMPARED TO THAT OF THE GFS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH
OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS BRINGING A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE
AS DEEPER TROUGHING BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A
FINAL COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA...POSSIBLY AS
LATE AS NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
THE INITIAL FOCUS IN THE TAFS WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTING JKL TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. THESE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS
AT THE AIRPORT BETWEEN 530 AND 6Z. BASED ON UPSTREAM RADAR
IMAGERY...IT APPEARS THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE RELATIVE FREE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
COVER...AND PERHAPS SOME FOG...WILL LIKELY PLAGUE THE TAF SITES FROM
TIME TO TIME THROUGH 15Z OR SO TODAY. THE NEXT MAJOR ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 16 OR 17Z
TODAY...LASTING THROUGH AROUND 0Z THIS EVENING...AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.
AFTER 0Z...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
350 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2014
.SHORT TERM.../Today through Thursday night/
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2014
Another strong mid level impulse moving southeast toward the Lower
Ohio Valley this morning is responsible for widespread showers with
some isolated elevated convection. The strongest hail cores early
this morning have been over the Ozarks of south central MO. The RAP
model indicates a strong feed of moisture and elevated instability
into these storms /near 50 knots at 850 mb/. Mid level temps are
still very cold...producing steep 850/500 mb lapse rates over 7
C/km. The RAP indicates the 850 jet will translate eastward across
western KY early this morning. Some elevated hailers may affect
parts of our area early this morning...along with a widespread area
of light to moderate rain. Will go with categorical pops for many
areas this morning. Once the shortwave moves east of our area by
midday...the precip will diminish from west to east.
Similar to Monday...another surface trough/weak cold front will move
east across the Lower Ohio Valley during the afternoon. Once
again...there is some potential for isolated convection to develop
along this trough during the peak heating hours. Expect coverage to
be scattered at best...since the mid level shortwave will be
departing to our east and low level convergence will be weakening
along the dissipating surface trough. Despite very marginal
instability with mixed layer capes around 500 j/kg...an isolated
wind or hail event is possible given steep mid level lapse rates and
strong winds aloft /over 60 knots at 500 mb/.
Any lingering convection will end early this evening as the surface
trough moves south of Kentucky and the low levels stabilize.
Otherwise...mainly clear skies are expected tonight as drier air
arrives on light north winds. Low temps will fall into the upper 40s
to lower 50s.
On Wednesday...weak surface high pressure will pass almost directly
overhead. Abundant sunshine is expected...along with light winds and
seasonably warm temps in the 70s.
On Wednesday night and Thursday...a surface warm front is forecast
to develop over the Lower Ohio Valley and southeast Missouri. Clouds
will increase...along with the chance of showers. Instability is
forecast to be very minimal until the southwest low level flow
increases Thursday night. Therefore...thunder chances look very low
at least until Thursday night.
On Thursday night...the warm front should become quasi stationary
over southwest Indiana and southern Illinois. Showers and storms
should become rather numerous along the front as low level
convergence sharpens. However...most qpf guidance has decreased
somewhat...possibly because the main upper shortwave trough will
still be hanging back over the western high Plains.
.LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2014
The extended forecast continues to appear quite wet as a west-to-
east sfc frontal boundary will be in the general vicinity of the PAH
forecast area initially. The ECMWF and its ensemble mean was favored
by WPC for this forecast package, and this was generally followed,
especially late in the weekend and early next week, when it has a
much more amplified pattern across the CONUS than the GFS/GEM.
While the mid level flow over our region will be quasizonal through
the first half of the weekend, the nrn stream pattern should have
periodic impulses of shrtwv energy moving through, generating
intervals of rainfall, with little instability available for tstm
development. However, copious tropical Pacific moisture should allow
the possibility of heavy rainfall rates.
If the ECMWF forecast pans out, the aforementioned frontal boundary
will be shoved nwd as a warm front late Sunday and Sunday night,
followed by a deepening wave of low sfc pressure moving into the mid
MS river valley. The strength of this amplification is uncertain at
this time, but coverage of tstms will probably increase by Sunday.
Heavy rainfall rates are possible, and shear parameters suggest that
a few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out.
Based on this forecast, there should be a warm-up to above-average
temps by Day 7.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
Expect shower and thunderstorm activity and VFR clouds to increase
late tonight as an upper level disturbance drops southeast out of
the plains. Precipitation and clouds should decrease from the west
starting around 20Z. South to southwest winds AOB 5 knots
overnight should increase to 10-12 knots with gusts to 18-20
knots out of the southwest to west starting around 16Z, veer
around to the west around 20Z, then drop off to AOB 10 knots out
of the west around 00Z.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...DAB
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
345 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
NEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TAKING PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. NONE OF THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE
REALLY BEEN PICKING UP ON THIS ACTIVITY...SO THE FORECAST GRIDS
THROUGH 12Z TODAY WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS IN RADAR
IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE REGION. THE FORECAST FROM
12Z TODAY THROUGH 0Z THURSDAY WAS HANDLED BEST BY A COMBINATION OF
THE HRRR MODEL AND A MODIFIED VERSION OF THE LATEST CONSALL RUN.
AFTER THE CURRENT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FINALLY MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE
ACTION THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. AFTER THAT...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FIRE QUICKLY...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE
BASED OF A MUCH LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT. CURRENT OBS
ARE ALSO SUGGESTING THE PRESENCE OF SOME SORT OF WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ALSO
PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FORCING MECHANISM FOR SHOWER AND STORM
FORMATION LATER THIS MORNING. THAT ALL BEING SAID...THE MOST ACTIVE
PART OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. THE MOST INTENSE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
DURING PEAK HEATING AND WHILE A 40 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM.
SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTING WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR TODAY.
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PROBABLY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE SHIFTING OF WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OFF TO OUR EAST. HIGHS TODAY AND
TOMORROW SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 70 WITH TONIGHTS LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT...AT LEAST TO START THE
EXTENDED...BEFORE DIVERGING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEY ALL SHOW A
VERY DEEP AND LARGE MID LEVEL LOW SPINNING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.
A NODE OF THIS WILL BE SWEEPING NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT. AS
HEIGHTS SLOWLY START TO COME UP OVER KENTUCKY A SMALLER TROUGH WILL
BE MAKING ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY.
THIS WESTERN TROUGH WILL OPEN UP AND SEND IT ENERGY EAST INTO THE
FAST FLOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL...
THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LOW THAN THE GEM AND GFS.
THIS STRENGTH ALSO MANIFESTS ITSELF DOWNSTREAM OVER KENTUCKY AS A
BIT MORE RIDGING THROUGH THE WEEKEND THAN THE OTHERS. FOR
SUNDAY...THE GFS SEEMS MOST OUT OF STEP WITH ITS PATTERN COMPARED TO
THE OTHER MODELS AS IT HAS FLAT AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER KENTUCKY.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF...SUPPORTED BY THE GEM...STARTS TO BRING A FAST
MOVING AND QUICKLY DEEPENING TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL FURTHER CONSOLIDATE INTO MONDAY AS A DEEP LOW OVER THE MIDWEST
WITH A SWEEP OF ENERGY PRESSING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL FAVOR THE
MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND THEN LEAN MORE TOWARD
THE ECMWF FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL OCCUR AS AMPLE
MOISTURE...FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MEETS UP WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY
AND A COUPLE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL LIFT
INTO KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY
OVER THE AREA AS COLD AIR TO THE NORTH AND WARM TO THE SOUTH MAKES
FOR A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE STATE. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH AGAIN AS A BONA FIDE WARM FRONT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP SFC LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHER
PLAINS. THIS LATTER SYSTEM WILL THEN LOOK TO SWING ITS ELONGATED
COLD FRONT INTO THIS PART OF THE STATE LATER MONDAY. WITH THE
FORECAST AREA CAUGHT BETWEEN SEASONS THIS EXTENDED...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...BUT WITH A SMALLER THAN AVERAGE DIURNAL RANGE
DUE TO EXTRA CLOUDS AND PCPN AROUND.
THE CR GRID LOAD PROVED TO BE AN ADEQUATE START TO THE EXTENDED
GRIDS...THOUGH DID ADJUST THE POPS A TAD TOWARD THE DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTION FROM THE ECMWF THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. GIVEN
THE FRONTS NEARBY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIODS DID NOT DO TOO MUCH
ADJUSTING TO THE TEMPERATURES AS THE TERRAIN IMPACT WILL BE
RELATIVELY MUTED...EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN A MODERATE RIDGE
TO VALLEY SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
THE INITIAL FOCUS IN THE TAFS WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTING JKL TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. THESE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS
AT THE AIRPORT BETWEEN 530 AND 6Z. BASED ON UPSTREAM RADAR
IMAGERY...IT APPEARS THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE RELATIVE FREE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
COVER...AND PERHAPS SOME FOG...WILL LIKELY PLAGUE THE TAF SITES FROM
TIME TO TIME THROUGH 15Z OR SO TODAY. THE NEXT MAJOR ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 16 OR 17Z
TODAY...LASTING THROUGH AROUND 0Z THIS EVENING...AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.
AFTER 0Z...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
128 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1112 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVING FROM CENTRAL AND INTO
EASTERN KY...THERE APPEARS TO BE A BACK EDGE TO THIS ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SHOULD WANE FROM WEST
TO EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A RELATIVE LULL IN ACTIVITY FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...CHANCES
WILL INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD SUNRISE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
UNSETTLED WEATHER DUE TO CONVECTIVE CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH
WORKING INTO THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE EVENING...IF NOT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT
IS ALSO DROPPING SOUTH TO NEAR THE OH RIVER AND GENERALLY SHOULD WASH
OUT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW WORKING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION IS LEADING TO CONTINUED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA AND EVEN SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOUISVILLE
VICINITY.
RECENT HRRR RUNS POINT TOWARD THE CURRENT BATCH OF CONVECTION
WORKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH OVER THE NEXT TWO THREE
HOURS...BUT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING THERE.
CONVECTION WORKING ACROSS CENTRAL KY MAY SURVIVE INTO THE NORTHERN
CWA NEAR INTERSTATE 64 AS WELL. WITH ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES
TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT...ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH WILL
PROBABLY EXPERIENCE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION PAST MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A RELATIVE LULL MAY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT...AFTER 2 AM...
BETWEEN THE UPPER DISTURBANCES.WITH TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS THEY
ARE ALOFT...HAIL... MOSTLY LIKELY SUB SEVERE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. TRAINING WILL
ALSO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION TAKES
PLACE HAS BEEN THE BIGGEST QUESTION TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AN ISSUE DURING THE PERIOD. IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO GET SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION TODAY FOR STRONG CONVECTION. A FEW STORMS HAVE GONE
THE EXTRA MILE AND PRODUCED SOME HAIL DUE TO FREEZING LEVELS ONLY
AROUND 8K FEET. WITH A FEW HOLES IN THE CLOUDS AND PEAK HEATING
OCCURRING...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO APPROACH. WILL LOOK FOR THE
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST TO MARCH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ALOFT ARE FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WITH BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR...BUT
INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK. THE SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED...WITH WATCHES/WARNINGS A POSSIBILITY IF ENOUGH LATE DAY
HEATING OCCURS. AFTER THIS CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THE NEXT MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR STORMS IS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER IMPULSE ALOFT APPROACHES. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH
DEVELOP CONVECTION. WHILE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...A BLEND OF RECENT GFS
AND NAM RUNS WOULD SUGGEST THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME BEING IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS PERSISTENT IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
ALONG A COLD FRONT AS IT ENTERS OUR AREA FROM THE NW ON TUESDAY
EVENING. THE GFS HAS NOT DEPICTED THIS. HAVE USED A POP GRADIENT FROM
NW TO SE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
SPENDING THE LONGEST TIME AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SEEING THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE FRONT BRINGS IN A STABLE
AIR MASS. SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL STILL EXIST FOR SEVERE STORMS ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. ONCE AGAIN...IF SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION CAN TAKE PLACE...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN. AT
THIS POINT...INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PRESENT BUT RATHER WEAK.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT...AT LEAST TO START THE
EXTENDED...BEFORE DIVERGING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEY ALL SHOW A
VERY DEEP AND LARGE MID LEVEL LOW SPINNING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.
A NODE OF THIS WILL BE SWEEPING NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT. AS
HEIGHTS SLOWLY START TO COME UP OVER KENTUCKY A SMALLER TROUGH WILL
BE MAKING ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY.
THIS WESTERN TROUGH WILL OPEN UP AND SEND IT ENERGY EAST INTO THE
FAST FLOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL...
THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LOW THAN THE GEM AND GFS.
THIS STRENGTH ALSO MANIFESTS ITSELF DOWNSTREAM OVER KENTUCKY AS A
BIT MORE RIDGING THROUGH THE WEEKEND THAN THE OTHERS. FOR
SUNDAY...THE GFS SEEMS MOST OUT OF STEP WITH ITS PATTERN COMPARED TO
THE OTHER MODELS AS IT HAS FLAT AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER KENTUCKY.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF...SUPPORTED BY THE GEM...STARTS TO BRING A FAST
MOVING AND QUICKLY DEEPENING TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL FURTHER CONSOLIDATE INTO MONDAY AS A DEEP LOW OVER THE MIDWEST
WITH A SWEEP OF ENERGY PRESSING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL FAVOR THE
MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND THEN LEAN MORE TOWARD
THE ECMWF FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL OCCUR AS AMPLE
MOISTURE...FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MEETS UP WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY
AND A COUPLE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL LIFT
INTO KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY
OVER THE AREA AS COLD AIR TO THE NORTH AND WARM TO THE SOUTH MAKES
FOR A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE STATE. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH AGAIN AS A BONA FIDE WARM FRONT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP SFC LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHER
PLAINS. THIS LATTER SYSTEM WILL THEN LOOK TO SWING ITS ELONGATED
COLD FRONT INTO THIS PART OF THE STATE LATER MONDAY. WITH THE
FORECAST AREA CAUGHT BETWEEN SEASONS THIS EXTENDED...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...BUT WITH A SMALLER THAN AVERAGE DIURNAL RANGE
DUE TO EXTRA CLOUDS AND PCPN AROUND.
THE CR GRID LOAD PROVED TO BE AN ADEQUATE START TO THE EXTENDED
GRIDS...THOUGH DID ADJUST THE POPS A TAD TOWARD THE DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTION FROM THE ECMWF THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. GIVEN
THE FRONTS NEARBY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIODS DID NOT DO TOO MUCH
ADJUSTING TO THE TEMPERATURES AS THE TERRAIN IMPACT WILL BE
RELATIVELY MUTED...EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN A MODERATE RIDGE
TO VALLEY SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
THE INITIAL FOCUS IN THE TAFS WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTING JKL TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. THESE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS
AT THE AIRPORT BETWEEN 530 AND 6Z. BASED ON UPSTREAM RADAR
IMAGERY...IT APPEARS THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE RELATIVE FREE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
COVER...AND PERHAPS SOME FOG...WILL LIKELY PLAGUE THE TAF SITES FROM
TIME TO TIME THROUGH 15Z OR SO TODAY. THE NEXT MAJOR ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 16 OR 17Z
TODAY...LASTING THROUGH AROUND 0Z THIS EVENING...AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.
AFTER 0Z...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
510 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NW
ONTARIO WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO E UPPER MI
SUPPORTED SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER THE FAR ERN CWA
TOWARAD ERY. OTHERWISE...JUST MID CLOUDS PREVAILED ACROSS UPPER MI.
SOME -SHRA/SHSN OVER NW ONTARIO WERE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM
SHRTWV THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
TODAY...EXPECT THAT THE NW ONTARIO SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH
SFC HEATING AND A CONTRIBUTION OF LAKE MOISTURE WITH THE LOW LEVEL
WRLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN ISOLD/SCT -SHRA OVER MAINLY THE NORTH
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH THE STEEP SFC-700 MB
LAPSE RATES AND THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING WITH THE SHRTWV
ONLY VERY LIGHT QPF IS EXPECTED...GENRALLY LESS THAN 0.05
INCH...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS WITH AN INVERTED V TYPE
SOUNDING. TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S WEST AND LOWER
TO MID 50S OVER THE CNTRL AND EAST.
TONIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD
FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROPPPING TO NEAR -5C WITH THE PRESENCE OF
FAVORABLE 850-700 MB MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SOME NW FLOW LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT PCPN EVEN THOUGH LAKE-850 MB DELTA/T IS ONLY NEAR
14C. GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST A MIX OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
CONTINUED COOL...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
/MAINLY AWAY FROM S CENTRAL UPPER MI/...UNDER A W-NW FLOW REGIME.
COOL AIR ALOFT AND NEAR THE SFC WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE W THIRD OF THE CWA...INLAND FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR.
THE 500MB LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO AND WILL HAVE IT/S MAIN TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY. NW FLOW OVER UPPER MI WILL REMAIN...WITH THE NEXT W-E
ORIENTED TROUGH SET UP ACROSS MANITOBA AND W ONTARIO. LOOK FOR THIS
FEATURE TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE 500MB LOW SHIFTS FROM THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER AT 06Z THURSDAY TO CENTRAL QUEBEC BY 18Z
THURSDAY...AND NORTHERN ONTARIO BY FRIDAY MORNING. GFS WINDS ARE
QUITE HIGH FOR THE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...ON THE ORDER OF 10KTS HIGHER THAN THE 00Z CANADIAN/NAM AND
THE 12Z ECMWF. WILL WAIT UNTIL THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE FCSTED WINDS FOR THIS PERIOD.
TIMING ON EACH INDIVIDUAL WAVE IS UNCERTAIN...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
FINAL SHORTWAVE IN THE SERIES OVER MANITOBA AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY
WILL PUSH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH EXITS ON FRIDAY...THE LARGE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH
OF W CANADA AND THE W U.S. WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AT THE EARLIEST OVER THE W. THERE LOOKS TO BE SIGNIFICANT TIMING
ISSUES WITH THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD...SO A BLENDED SOLUTION SEEMED
REASONABLE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
A LO PRES TROF WL CROSS UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG ACCOMPANIED BY SOME
SCT -SHRA THAT MAY STILL IMPACT SAW FOR THE FIRST FEW HRS OF THE TAF
PERIOD. BUT RATHER DRY LLVL AIR WL RESULT IN PREDOMINANT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE AT
CMX...WHERE WSHFT TO THE W IN THE WAKE OF THE TROF PASSAGE WL RESULT
IN A SHARPER UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AND PERHAPS MVFR CIGS FOR A
TIME. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/LO PRES TROF WL ARRIVE ON TUE AFTN...BUT
ONCE AGAIN RELATIVELY DRY LLVL AIR WL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR WDSPRD
HEAVIER SHRA AND SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBY. THE BEST CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
WL BE AT CMX AND IWD THIS EVNG WITH MORE FVRBL UPSLOPE WNW WIND
COMPONENT BEHIND THE TROF AT TIME OF DIURNAL COOLING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
A SURFACE LOW ROTATING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT AND GENERALLY W TO NW WINDS
OF 15-30KTS INTO THU. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THU NIGHT INTO SAT BRINING LIGHTER
WINDS...GENRALLY 20 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
400 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
IN NEARLY A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF YESTERDAY...THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
SYSTEM IS ORGANIZING OVER ILLINOIS DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED PATTERN OF SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WITH
SIMILAR LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON TIMING AND THEN LAST THROUGH
MID EVENING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT
BEST POTENTIAL IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR DURING MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR WILL THEN SPREAD OVER THE REGION ON THE
HEELS OF THE WAVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS MATCH UP NICELY WITH EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE TRENDS...BOTH OF WHICH DEPICT A 150 KT UPPER JET MAX OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A SHARP LEFT EXIT REGION OVER THE MIDWEST.
THIS JET WILL BE RUNNING THE SHOW ON THE LARGER SCALE AS IT DIGS
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND HELPS THE WAVE
AMPLIFY OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. MODEL CONSENSUS DEPICTS AN OPEN
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT STRONG DEFORMATION DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
TROUGH AXIS AROUND THE 500 MB LEVEL DURING THE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL
MOTION FORCING THAT STARTS OUT AS PURE ISENTROPIC LIFT/THETA-E
ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING WILL THEN OBTAIN A STRONG DYNAMIC BOOST
FROM THE DEFORMATION THAT WILL BEND THE THETA-E RIDGE WESTWARD OVER
SE MICHIGAN BY MID AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY
NOT BE CONTINUOUS BUT GREAT ENOUGH FOR CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE
AREA EXCEPT LIKELY FOR MIDLAND AND BAY COUNTIES. ASSUMING MAX TEMPS
REACH THE LOWER 60S...THE CONSENSUS OF THE NAM AND RAP THEN POINT TO
SURFACE BASED CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG GATHERING ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH FROM THE OHIO BORDER UP TO ABOUT THE M-59 CORRIDOR WHERE THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. USING YESTERDAY AS A
GUIDE...WITH SIMILAR LOW FREEZING LEVEL AND WIND PROFILE...THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PEA SIZE HAIL AND 40 MPH WIND
GUSTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL END BY MID EVENING BUT COULD LINGER AS LATE AS MIDNIGHT
IN THE NORTHERN THUMB BEFORE THE WAVE EXITS INTO ONTARIO. THE
DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A PROGRESSION IN THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN THAT WILL CARRY THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH TOWARD QUEBEC AND
LEAVE DEEP NW FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
NIGHT. WESTERLY SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED MAINTAIN 10 TO 20 MPH AND
BRING ENOUGH COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA TO CARRY MIN TEMPS INTO THE
LOWER 40S UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WELCOMED CHANGES ON THEIR WAY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
BROAD...STRONG AND PERSISTENT UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS
BEEN HOLDING OVER NW ONTARIO FINALLY GETS PICKED UP BY THE
NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET AND FORCED EASTWARD. THOUGH THE LOW
WILL MOVE OVER QUEBEC BY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF THE COAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING...THE FULL EFFECTS OF ITS EXIT WILL
NOT BE REALIZED TIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
STILL LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION AT THE SFC BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR AND MORE TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WE WILL STAY COOL INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STAYS JUST TO OUR SOUTH UNTIL THE
END OF THE WEEKEND WHEN RIDGING APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS AND
WARMER SW FLOW REPLACES THE COOLER NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
LARGELY REMAIN IN THE MID 50S UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN WE NEAR THE 60
MARK.
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN COOL WITH GUSTY WNW FLOW...BUT DRY AIR WORKING
INTO THE REGION WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A DRY DAY FOR
MOST LOCATIONS IN SE MI. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE SOME LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE THUMB WHICH WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE
ENHANCED RIBBON OF MOISTURE RESULTING FROM A GOOD FETCH OVER LAKES
SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN AS THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR ON ITS WAY EAST WHICH WILL
CONSTRICT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP MIXED LAYER DEVELOPING WHICH WILL BRING DOWN
WINDS APPROACHING 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL START A STRING OF NIGHTS IN WHICH TEMPS WILL
DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING STRONGER
EACH DAY AND WINDS DECOUPLING EACH NIGHT UNDER CLEAR
SKIES...FAVORABLE RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ALLOWING
THESE COOLER TEMPS. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EVEN SEE FROST IN THE MORNING
IF WE ACHIEVE THESE COOLER TEMPS. WEDNESDAY MAY HOLD CLOSER TO 40 AS
THE WINDS MAY NOT SUBSIDE FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW LONG ENOUGH DURATION
OF COOLING...BUT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD HAVE CALMER WINDS.
NO REAL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EXTENDED UNTIL LATE ON
SUNDAY WHEN THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS THROUGH THE PLAINS
AND LEAD CYCLOGENESIS SPINS UP A SFC LOW THAT LOOKS TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE GREAT LAKES WATERS AS THE MASSIVE
LOW STILL LINGERS OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO KEEPING A STEADY FEED OF
COLD AIR OVER THE LAKES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE LATEST ROUND OF WIND. GUSTS SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH 25 KNOTS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP THROUGH LATER TODAY. AFTER A
BRIEF LULL TONIGHT...COLD WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY
OVER THE LAKES WHILE THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR ON
WEDNESDAY TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. WINDS
LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW GALES WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF LAKE HURON. THIS WILL LIKELY
NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1156 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
//DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE ANOTHER BATCH OF SHRAS PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA AS NEXT IN A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SWEEP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY BRING OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY IN THE 17Z-23Z TIME
FRAME...WITH VARYING DEGREES OF CLEARING BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITHIN SUBSIDENCE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ONCE IT PASSES.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
HURON...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK
AVIATION.....DG
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
258 AM MDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
TRANQUIL AND MILD WEATHER WILL RULE THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW IN ONTARIO SHIFTS EAST...TAKING WITH IT A CORE OF STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT THAT HAVE BEEN AIDING GUSTY WINDS RECENTLY.
TODAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ONGOING IN CENTRAL MT AS
OF 08 UTC FROM LEWISTOWN TOWARD ROUNDUP AND LAME DEER. THE SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH
ACCOMPANIED A WEAK BACKDOOR COOL FRONTAL SURGE LAST EVENING. THERE
WILL BE WEAK...BUT PERSISTENT FRONTOGENESIS NEAR THAT ZONE THROUGH
THE DAY SO WE HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST IN PLACES NEAR
AND TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL FRONT. WE PULLED THE LOW-END
SHOWER CHANCE A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN EARLIER FORECASTS...AND THUS
INTO THE BILLINGS AREA...OUT OF RESPECT TO OVERNIGHT HRRR AND NSSL
WRF-ARW RUNS. OTHERWISE...MIXING WILL BE LIMITED IN MOST LOCATIONS
TODAY AND THUS HIGHS WILL BE COOLER THAN MON...MAINLY IN THE 60S F
EXCEPT FOR AROUND LIVINGSTON WHERE A WEST WIND WILL CONTINUE SINCE
THE WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT ISN/T EXPECTED TO MAKE IT THAT FAR WEST.
TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE WEAK MID-LEVEL
FRONT...WHICH MEANS MOSTLY NORTH AND EAST OF BILLINGS TOWARD MILES
CITY AND BROADUS. THERE MAY ACTUALLY BE SOME UPTICK IN THAT SHOWER
ACTIVITY AFTER 06 UTC IN SOUTHEASTERN MT AS SOME BETTER QG-FORCING
APPROACHES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AN IDEA SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE
00 UTC ECMWF AND NSSL WRF-ARW /BOTH OF WHICH HAVE HANDLED ISOLATED
SHOWERS WELL IN THIS REGIME OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS/.
WED...A WARM-UP IS EXPECTED AS MIXING DEEPENS IN MOST AREAS AS THE
LOW- AND MID-LEVEL FRONT MOVES BACK EASTWARD AS A WARM FRONT. SOME
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON WED AROUND BAKER NEAR THE FRONT
AND ON THE FRINGE OF A MODERATE SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO ND. WE ARE
EXPECTING HIGHS BACK ABOVE 70 F IN MANY AREAS WHICH FITS WELL WITH
THE 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THAT WAS THE BASIS FOR ALMOST ALL
OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST GIVEN THE LOW-IMPACT WEATHER AND RATHER
SMALL SPREAD IN INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
CONCERNING THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES STILL
EXIST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
OPERATIONAL GFS HAS TRENDED EVER SO SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE ECMWF
SOLUTIONS FOR THESE LATER TIME FRAMES. WPC HAS ALSO STATED THEIR
IN-HOUSE PARALLEL GFS IS MUCH CLOSER TO ECMWF CLUSTERING THAN THE
OPERATIONAL GFS. THEREFORE...WILL WEIGHT BLENDS FOR THE EXTENDED
TOWARD THE ECMWF.
SO MOVING FORWARD...EXPECT WEAK PACIFIC SHORT WAVES WITHIN AN
OTHERWISE ANTI-CYCLONIC LONG WAVE PATTERN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. FOR THE WEEKEND...A FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND CARVE OUT A LOW AMPLITUDE
YET BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN UNSETTLED AND PERHAPS BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH
PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH WIND AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE
LIKELY RESULT FOR THE PLAINS. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS..BUT THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OF
PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES PREVAILING...THOUGH NOT
AS WARM AS WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS WEEK. BT
&&
.AVIATION...
VARIABLE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TODAY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH
EASTERLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AT THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KLVM
WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN WESTERLY. BT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 067 047/074 046/064 045/065 047/068 046/060 042/061
2/W 10/B 00/B 20/U 02/W 12/W 21/N
LVM 075 043/073 040/066 040/067 043/065 039/056 036/059
0/B 10/U 11/B 10/U 02/W 22/W 21/N
HDN 067 043/075 044/067 043/066 045/070 043/062 040/062
2/W 11/B 00/B 21/U 02/W 22/W 21/N
MLS 063 042/070 041/064 042/064 046/070 044/062 040/061
2/W 21/B 11/B 22/B 11/B 11/B 21/N
4BQ 063 042/073 043/065 042/063 045/071 043/060 040/059
2/W 21/B 01/B 22/B 11/B 22/W 21/N
BHK 059 037/065 037/058 037/058 042/068 040/059 038/055
1/N 22/W 11/B 12/B 11/B 11/B 21/N
SHR 067 043/074 043/068 043/065 042/071 042/058 036/058
2/W 11/U 00/B 20/U 01/U 23/W 21/N
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
1020 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2014
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED
.UPDATE...
No significant changes to the forecast tonight as the upper level
ridge continues to dominate the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0420Z.
Current satellite imagery shows northwest flow and moisture aloft
continuing to generate widespread SCT-BKN mid-level clouds
(generally above 7000 ft) over most of central and north-central MT,
with considerably less cloud cover from KHLN southward to the MT-ID
border. Additional moisture upstream will keep the cloud decks in
place through at least midday Wed, with a slight chance of a stray
rain shower vcnty KLWT in the early aftn. Breezy westerly winds from
earlier this evening have dissipated across the region and should
remain light overnight.
Waranauskas
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 605 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2014/
Tonight through Wednesday...Northwest flow aloft will continue as
the upper ridge remains over the west coast. Weak short wave
energy will move within the flow aloft tonight and may generate
some light showers, mainly in a narrow band from near Cut Bank to
east of Great Falls to just north of Lewistown. This lines up well
with RUC analysis but HRRR model data has the precipitation a bit
further to the west. Slightly cooler temperatures are in store for
the area Tuesday with a few isolated afternoon showers. The
pressure gradient will continue to favor breezy conditions Tuesday
afternoon. Additional short wave energy moves across the area
Wednesday with isolated showers again a possibility, mainly near
the international boundary and along the Rocky Mountain Front.
Temperatures will remain above seasonal averages.
Wednesday Night through Monday...Medium range models remain in
good agreement from midweek through Saturday but solutions
continue to diverge for the Sunday/Monday time frame. Period
starts off with northwest flow aloft over the Northern Rocky
Mountain region with temperatures that are near seasonal averages.
Moisture in the northwest flow will bring isolated rain and snow
showers to the western mountains through Friday afternoon. By
Friday evening, a strong upper level jet will push into western
Canada and the Pacific Northwest. However, beyond Saturday, the
strong flow aloft causes model solutions to diverge as short wave
strength and timing become more problematic. Based upon the
general pattern present in the medium range models am expecting
that increased Pacific moisture and upper level dynamics will
bring an growing chance for precipitation to the western mountains
with isolated to scattered showers moving out over the plains.
Have continued to trend PoPs upward for Saturday through Monday
with temperatures expected to cool back below seasonal averages.
Have also trended toward increased winds along the Rocky Mountain
Front during this period as well and am expecting that that one or
two high wind events along the east slopes of the Rockies are
possible between Friday and Monday. mpj
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 47 68 47 70 / 10 10 10 10
CTB 44 67 43 70 / 20 20 10 10
HLN 48 75 46 72 / 10 10 10 10
BZN 42 73 40 70 / 0 10 10 10
WEY 32 64 31 62 / 0 0 10 0
DLN 44 74 41 70 / 0 0 10 0
HVR 42 64 40 67 / 10 20 10 20
LWT 44 66 43 69 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
434 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ALOFT BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 433 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED IN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THIS MORNING UNDER SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH THE FIRST OF SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TO AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS LIFTING
INTO WESTERN PA/NY. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS STREAMING OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH ANOTHER BATCH
UPSTREAM MOVING THROUGH EASTERN PA AND CENTRAL NY. LATEST HI-RES
HRRR AND RAP MODELS ARE HANDLING THE CURRENT CONDITIONS FAIRLY
WELL...AND SHOW UPSTREAM PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING WITH A LITTLE ENHANCEMENT AS IT MOVES
NORTH...BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT. SO WHILE THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE
SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING...OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE
LOW...JUST ENOUGH TO WET THE ROADS. BY THIS AFTERNOON WE`LL SEE A
BREAK IN ACTIVITY IN-BETWEEN SHORTWAVES WITH A FEW POKES OF SUN
LIKELY RIGHT AROUND SUNSET. A RELATIVELY POTENT SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER THE REGION AS WELL SO WE`LL SEE CONTINUED
GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE THROUGH THIS MORNING...ABATING
SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND
GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 433 AM EDT TUESDAY...AFTER A BREAK BREAK IN THE ACTION...A SECOND
AND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE BTV CWA
TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A MORE ORGANIZED PERIOD OF RAIN. AS WAS THE
CASE UPSTREAM TONIGHT...A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS AN AREA OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANIES THE
ENERGY ALOFT. IN ADDITION...SOUTHERLY LOW-MID JET REDEVELOPS AGAIN
AS WELL WITH ANOTHER RELATIVELY MILD AND BREEZY NIGHT EXPECTED
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MOST.
BULK OF THE PRECIP SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF JAMES BAY. ALOFT WE
REMAIN UNDER BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WHILE THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET SHIFTS NORTH OF THE BORDER...MEAN 925-850MB FLOW OF 30-40KTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY SOME
LAKE EFFECT WEDS NIGHT THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
TRENDS DRIER BUT COOLER AS COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES POST-FRONTAL
PASSAGE. 850MB TEMPS FALL BELOW 0C WITH A CHILLY THOUGH NEAR
NORMAL NIGHT EXPECTED WEDS NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. ONE LAST SHORTWAVE SKIMS IN THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...BUT BY AND LARGE CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY...COOL AND BRISK
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND MODEST WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 328 AM EDT TUESDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH GOOD CONSISTENCY
NOTED BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS. THE FORECAST PERIOD
BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION WITH A RETURN TO ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW. MAY SEE
A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS ONCE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. LOW TEMPS THURSDAY
NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. FRIDAY LIKEWISE LOOKS TRANQUIL WITH WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE 53-57F RANGE.
A DEVELOPING SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SLOWLY EASTWARD BRINGING A
PLEASANT WEEKEND TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND DRY WEATHER. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS SURFACE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THAT SAID...MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40 (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THE COLDEST 850MB
TEMPERATURES (-2C TO -3C) ARE IN PLACE ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SURFACE HIGH ON SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW-MID 50S. THE AIR MASS MODERATES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. ON
MONDAY...SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY
500MB FLOW. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S...BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A DEVELOPING CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY (30-40 POPS...HIGHEST WEST).
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING NEWD
OUT OF THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TAF SITES THIS MORNING. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY PROLONGED MVFR/IFR...BUT BRIEF INTERVALS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z ASSOCIATED WITH PERIODIC SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THEREAFTER...SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL REINTRODUCE CEILINGS AROUND
4-5KFT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND INTERVALS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN S-SE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WILL
CREATE AREAS OF TURBULENCE/SHEAR ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. 40-50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE 3-4 KFT AND
GENERALLY ABOVE LLWS THRESHOLDS FOR INCLUSION AT THE TAF
LOCATIONS. SHOULD SEE VERTICAL SHEAR DECREASE AFTER 14Z THIS
MORNING. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTS 25
KTS POSSIBLE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING NEWD WILL BRING MORNING
RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY...ALONG WITH GUSTY S-SW
WINDS. GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS MORNING WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
PRODUCING WAVES ON ORDER OF 2 TO 4 FEET. A LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING BRIEFLY WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
DROPPING OFF SLIGHTLY...BUT STRENGTHENS AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH WINDS PICKING BACK UP ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS AND
REMAINING STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT ROUGH BOATING
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...LAHIFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
141 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE INCREASED MONDAY. DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST FLOW CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN LATE THURSDAY IN FAST ZONAL FLOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
SHOWERS PULLING OUT OF THE REGION...BUT HAVE THEM LINGERING OVER
THE SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH 10-11Z.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
MUCH MORE ACTIVE AUTUMN PATTERN...AS SPOKES OF ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED SPEED MAXIMUMS ROTATE AROUND THE BROAD 500 MB TROF OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO.
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WAS INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR THE CLUSTERS TO COME LATE. AS MENTIONED THIS
MORNING...HARD TO TIME THE INDIVIDUAL SHOWER/STORM CLUSTERS IN THIS
FAST FLOW. MAIN 500 MB VORT MAXIMUM ON 16Z RAP NOT PASSING INTO OUR
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES UNTIL AFTER 06Z TUESDAY. WILL HOLD LIKELY POPS
THERE MOST OF THE NIGHT. WITHOUT AN ORGANIZED SURFACE
FEATURE...LIKE A FRONT...HARD TO TIME REMOVE OF POP...BUT DROPPED
BELOW 15 PCT IN THE MID OHIO VALLEY AFTER 06Z...IN WAKE OF THAT 500
MB AXIS. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LOWER IN THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...SO WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD LOWER CLOUDS THAN SURFACE BASED
FOG FOR THE PREDAWN HOURS.
FAVORED THE FASTER 12Z GFS OVER THE SLOWER NAM FOR NEXT DISTURBANCE
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SO INCREASED POPS FASTER FROM WEST TO
EAST.
WILL FINE TUNE MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT HOUR...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY BIG
CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN THIS PERIOD. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN FAST W-NW FLOW THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROF/COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH EAST EARLY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY.
HAVE CONTINUED TREND FROM EARLIER GRIDS AS WET WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY SEASONABLE CONDITIONS BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING ON THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
BECOMING ORIENTED WEST TO EAST...FROM KENTUCKY TO VIRGINIA...UNDER
MOIST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK ITS WAY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG FRONT
JUST TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED PERIOD. DEPENDING
ON WHICH MODEL YOU PICK...BY SATURDAY...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND
THE TIMING THESE FEATURES WILL DIFFER. POPULATING WITH WPC TEMPS AND
POPS GUIDANCE WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS PULL OUT OF THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH WIND STAYING
UP...AND SHOULD PREVENT ANYTHING WORSE THAN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. THUNDER IS ALSO WINDING DOWN AS WELL
IN LEFTOVER RAIN. BKW COULD BE IN THE RAIN THROUGH 10Z OR SO UNTIL
THE NEXT WAVE TUESDAY.
EXPECTING MORE CONVECTION AND HAVE THIS MOVING INTO HTS AND PKB
AROUND 17Z. GIVEN A SIMILAR ATMOSPHERIC SET UP...USING THE
CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED TODAY AS A PRIMER FOR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF THE VISIBILITY. MOST SITES TO
REMAIN MVFR IN -TSRA. WILL CONSIDER TEMPOS FOR IFR IN THE NEXT
ISSUANCE AT 12Z.
GUIDANCE KEEPS CONDITIONS VFR OUT OF THE RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY NEED BRIEF MVFR LATE TONIGHT IN MIST OR
LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 10/07/14
UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS OR FOG OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. IFR IN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/KMC/KTB
NEAR TERM...KTB/26
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
150 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW WILL RESIDE NEAR JAMES BAY CANADA THROUGH THE
MIDWEEK PERIOD BEFORE DRIFTING GRADUALLY EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
POTENT SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS LOW WILL
IMPACT PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO PENNSYLVANIA FROM
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN A
WEAK CLIPPER LOW COULD TRACK ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT CENTRAL PA
OVERNIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PULLS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP IS MISSING THE
LWR SUSQ VALLEY TO THE NORTH...BUT THE HRRR SHOWS THAT A SECOND
BATCH OF RAIN CURRENTLY OVER ERN WV COULD HOLD TOGETHER AND BRING
SOME SHOWERS TO THE LWR SUSQ OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 50S IN THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY.
A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AND COULD
REMAIN A BIT GUSTY ON THE RIDGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER EARLY TUESDAY...A MORE POTENT
WAVE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD PA LATE IN THE DAY.
PTSUNNY SKIES EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHC
OF SHOWERS TOWARD EVENING...AS STRONG WAA OVERSPREADS THE REGION
AT NOSE OF ANOMALOUS LL JET. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY SHOULD BE AOA CLIMO
AVERAGES BASED ON ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS.
THE SECOND AND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE /MARKED BY STRONG LIFT
BENEATH THE THERMALLY-INDIRECT LEFT-EXIT REGION OF A STRONG 250
MB JET/ WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS WEATHER FEATURE AND ITS ACCOMPANYING SOUTHERLY
LLJ AND NOSE OF 1-1.25 INCH PWAT AIR WILL CREATE MORE WIDESPREAD
AND OCNLY HEAVIER SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY ACROSS THE WEST...AND
MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST AREA. SREF PROB
OF 0.50 INCH OF RAIN IS NOTABLY HIGHER WITH THIS WAVE...AND PWATS
ARE A BIT HIGHER AS WELL.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF SFC-BASED
CAPE AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE 50S LATE TUESDAY/TUES
NIGHT...WITH A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO 850 MB-
BASED LIFTED INDICES. THIS WILL ENHANCE PRECIP RATES AND BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED TSRA AS THE ENERGY LIFTS NE ACROSS
THE COMMONWEALTH.
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS ON THE RIDGES...AND IN LOCATIONS JUST NORTH
OF THE RIDGE GAPS COULD BE 10 KTS OR SO HIGHER THAN MONDAY NIGHT.
PRECIP BEGINS TO DIMINISH FROM SW TO NE AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE LAST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES LIFTING NEWD INTO NEW
ENGLAND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW PATTERN IN THE EAST TRANSITIONING TO AN
AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PCPN WILL BE DURING THE LATE
WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND TIMEFRAME ASSOCD WITH A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS ACRS THE MS RIVER THRU THE OH/TN
VLYS AND INTO THE MID ATLC STATES. EACH INDIVIDUAL MODEL SHOWS
SOME VARIANCE AS TO THE NORTH/SOUTH FRONTAL (DIS)PLACEMENT WITH
THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORTING THE MIDDLE TO SRN SIDE OF
THE SPREAD. WILL CONTINUE TO EMPLOY A CONSENSUS BLEND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WHICH PLACES THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SRN TIER ON
THR NGT INTO FRI. COOL HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING FROM THE NRN PLAINS
ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL BATTLE
THE WAVY FRONTAL ZONE TO THE SOUTH AND TRY TO KEEP PCPN SUPPRESSED
TO THE SOUTH OF PA THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE NON NCEP DATA HAS
OTHER IDEAS IN STORE ESPECIALLY FOR SERN PA. OVERALL IT WILL BE
A DIFFICULT FCST UNTIL THE BOUNDARY PLACEMENT CAN BE RESOLVED.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE COUNTRY SHOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL OVER A BROADER AREA NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BULK OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS NOW. LIKE
MONDAY...MUCH OF TODAY WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS FOR TUE NIGHT.
06Z TAFS SENT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF CWA EARLY THIS EVENING...EXCEPT
ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER AND LOWER SUSQ. MAIN PRECIP AREA REMAINS
DRIVEN BY FORCING FROM LOW LEVEL JET CURRENTLY SLIDING NORTHWARD
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...SO TREND WILL BE FOR THIS AREA TO LIFT NE
OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ANOTHER WAVE LOOKS TO BE SNEAKING TOWARD
CENTRAL PA FROM THE SW...AND WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN OF LIGHT
RAIN TO THE REGION BETWEEN 04-08Z.
IN GENERAL...CONDITIONS VFR FOR MAJORITY OF CENTRAL PA. BUT MVFR
AREA WILL EXPAND FROM WESTERN PA INTO NORTHERN MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS TONIGHT...AND POSS BRIEFLY INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW-SE AND LIGHTEN AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...WHILE LLWS CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS 850MB
FLOW LESSENS FROM 40 KTS TO CLOSER TO 30 KTS.
EXPECT SOME CLEARING AGAIN TUES MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST LATE TUE/EARLY WED WHICH WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER SHRA/SCT TSRA.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...MVFR CIGS/SCT SHRA PSBL NW WED IMPROVING CONDITIONS WED
INTO THURS MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.
FRI...BRIEF CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS IN AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS.
SAT...VFR WITH A SCT SHOWER POSS...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/EVANEGO
NEAR TERM...EVANEGO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/EVANEGO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1154 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FPR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
UPDATE...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL
A LITTLE SOON THAN EXPECTED. UPDATED TO SPEED UP THE TIMING ON LIKELY
POPS FOR SHOWERS ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME LESS UNSTABLE...THUS REMOVED
THE MENTION OF SEVERE FROM THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
TONIGHT BUT DID KEEP IN THE POSSIBLY OF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
JCL
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
.UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABOUT TO PUSH EASTWARD OUT OF NORTHEAST MS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. OTHERWISE JUST A FEW
SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON RADAR ACROSS THE REGION. THE HRRR MODEL
INDICATES SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING BACK INTO
THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. UPDATED THE GRIDS AND ZONES TO ADJUST THE POPS TO
CHANCE CATEGORY BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THEN WENT LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MENTIONED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
THAT A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHED WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST AR INTO
NORTHWEST TN AND WAS LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
THE FRONT CAN BE SEEN MAINLY IN THE SURFACE DEW POINT ANALYSIS
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT
TO LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S TO THE SOUTH. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN
SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES
BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/G. INCREASED THE LOW TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS...ALSO WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP SOME FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT.
UPDATED ZONES...GRIDS...AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAVE ALREADY
BEEN SENT.
JCL
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
SYNOPSIS... FRESH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 70S WITH A SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S CAPES WERE RISING INTO THE
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. USING THE HRRR OUTPUT SEE MORE SCATTERED
RAINFALL WITH PERHAPS A STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL. GFS/NAM HAVE
SUGGESTED MORE ROBUST STORMS TO DEVELOP. THERE IS LITTLE OR NO
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND THE OCTOBER DIABATIC CONTRIBUTION IS NOT
STRONG. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS
WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. SCATTERED RAINFALL IS THEN POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT.
AS THE WARM SECTOR MOVES INTO OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY WE CATCH A
BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THOUGHT MONDAY)...
ON THURSDAY THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE RAINFALL BECOMES ENHANCED
PROXIMAL TO A SLOW MOVING WEST TO EAST COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE THE REGION FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL IN
QUESTION...HOWEVER WHEN THE FRONT DOES MOVE IN TEMPERATURES AND
CONSISTENT RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY. FOR NOW THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
CONSERVATIVE WAITING FOR FUTURES MODEL RUNS BEFORE PLACING MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTCOME.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THIS FRONT THEN BEGINS TO MOVE BACK
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BELLES
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF SET
LIGHT SHOWERS SHRA/TSRA BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ARKANSAS. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AND SWEEP EAST AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY VFR...WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS/VIS IN
HEAVIER STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL WANE AFTER SUNRISE WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS AND A SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR DECK. BEST PERIOD THIS
CYCLE APPEARS TO BE THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY FLIRT WITH THE SITES LATE.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1148 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HAS LEAD TO COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH MUCH OF THE SAME ON THE WAY AS
THIS CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW STALLS OUT OVER ONTARIO. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL ROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW TONIGHT AND
BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE THE LIFT FROM
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE STRONGEST AND MOISTURE WILL BE A
TAD DEEPER. 06.12Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS LOOK FAIRLY DRY ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION...SO IT SHOULD BE HARD FOR ANY RAIN TO REACH
THE GROUND DESPITE WHAT THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SHOWN.
THE MAIN PERIOD FOR THESE SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE FROM LATE EVENING
TO AROUND MIDNIGHT IN WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STAY UP
AROUND WHERE THEY WERE TODAY WITH SURFACE WINDS COMING AROUND TO
THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMING GUSTY BETWEEN 20-30MPH. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD GOING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
STAYING RIGHT AROUND WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TRENDS ARE FOR THE
SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING TO GO FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH WITH THE 06.12Z CANADIAN BEING THE ONLY MODEL STILL
SHOWING ANY RAIN MAKING IT INTO NORTHEAST IOWA/SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THERE IS A FAIRLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL THAT A BROAD RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY.
WITH A COOL AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE AND THIS HIGH OVERHEAD...IT
SHOULD BE A DECENT SETUP FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS. QUESTIONS START TO ARISE FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SUNDAY
LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY THAT THE RAIN WILL BE IN HERE AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
BACK EDGE OF MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ALONG MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AS OF 07.0445Z WILL SLIDE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. FEW-
SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH 07.16Z TO 07.18Z UNTIL VFR CEILINGS
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH
PERIOD WITH 12 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MID-TUESDAY MORNING...THEN
INCREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1103 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1049 AM CDT
FOR MORNING UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO SHOWER COVERAGE/AREAS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA AT TIMES INTO EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...THEN DRYING FROM THE
WEST. HAVE ALSO INDICATED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FROM ABOUT NOON THROUGH 4-5 PM.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT 15Z...ROUGHLY ALONG A MILWAUKEE-PERU-GALESBURG
LINE AT THIS TIME. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WAS GENERALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT JUST
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. WHILE HEAVIER MORNING SHOWERS WERE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA...ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS
NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM IOWA INTO
NORTHERN IL. SCATTERED LIGHTER SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF
THE MID-LEVEL VORT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL...HOWEVER HIGH-RES MODEL
RUNS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
AND DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION. THUS WHILE A SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...IT
APPEARS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WILL A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS. SPC
RAP-MESOANALYSIS GRAPHICS SHOW SOME WEAK MUCAPE AROUND 100 J/KG
THERE NOW...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE RAP AND THE 12Z
NAM SUPPORT MLCAPES IN THE 500-700 J/KG DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF A
PONTIAC TO VALPARAISO LINE THIS AFTERNOON. GREATER COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY END UP BEING JUST OFF TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...RAIN THREAT SHOULD END FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RATZER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
316 AM CDT
THIS WEEK LOOKS TO BE FREE OF ANY HIGH IMPACT WEATHER FOR THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SOME SMALLER CONCERNS OF SHOWERS TODAY...HOW
FAR NORTH RAIN REACHES THURSDAY...AND POTENTIALLY FROST OR FREEZE
FRIDAY NIGHT. EARLY NEXT WEEK A POSSIBLY AMPLIFYING TROUGH MAY
BRING ACTIVE AND/OR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY BUT WITH IT BEING A WEEK OUT AND GIVEN THE ALREADY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WE ARE IN MAKING IT CHALLENGING ON COMPUTER
MODELS...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS.
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...
THE STATIONARY AND MASSIVE ANOMALOUS LONG WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE FOR
THE AREA. STRONGLY CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THIS AND AN
ACTIVE NORTH PACIFIC JET IS DRIVING THE POLAR JET STREAM
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST WITH VIGOR. THIS 120-150 KT
NORTHWESTERLY JET AXIS HAS MULTIPLE SHEARED SHORT WAVE IMPULSES
RIDING ALONG IT AND FRONTOGENETICALLY INFLUENCING AN ALREADY TIGHT
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS WILL BE THE PLAYER FOR SOME RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES TODAY...INCLUDING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A DEPARTING WAVE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL IL AT 3 AM...AND ONE IMPULSE OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. WHILE THE FIRST WAVE WILL HAVE MUCH BETTER COVERAGE
OF RAIN...IT WILL BE EXITING BY 9-10 AM OR SO. THE SECOND WAVE
WILL DROP OVER THE AREA DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THIS IS
FAIRLY MOISTURE-STARVED AND ITS ZONE OF FORCING IS NARROW...SO
ONLY HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THIS MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST IL AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR
TONIGHT AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS WAVE AIDING IN A BREEZY
WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD REALIZE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE WITH MID 60S COVERING A LARGE PART OF THE
AREA ESPECIALLY IF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE OCCUR WHICH ARE EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES DUE TO WEAK COOL AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED JET AXIS ROUNDS THE UPPER TROUGH...THE LOW
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PULL AWAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THAT JET ALONG WITH A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA IN THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM/FORCING
WILL POTENTIALLY INTERACT WITH A TIGHTENING OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND POSSIBLY SOME MOISTURE FROM
EASTERN PACIFIC LANDFALLING TROPICAL STORM SIMON. EITHER WAY...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE REGION WILL BE UNDER SOME SUPPORT FOR RAIN. THE
CHALLENGE IS HOW FAR NORTH RAIN WILL REACH AS A DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR
MASS WILL BE OVER THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH.
DPROG/DT IN GUIDANCE INDICATES A GENERAL TREND OVER SEVERAL RUNS
TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WHICH COULD MEAN NORTH OF I-80 WILL
NOT SEE ANYTHING...AND MAYBE IN TIME A LARGER PART OF THE AREA.
FOR NOW HAVE TIGHTENED UP THE GRADIENT IN FORECAST POPS ALONG WITH
HAVING SHIFTED SOUTH SOME.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ENVELOP THE REGION FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THIS IS WELL
AGREED UPON ON GUIDANCE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH LAKE INDUCED
CLOUD COVER THERE IS INTO THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH AT LEAST
SCATTERED CLOUDS APPEAR PROBABLE BASED ON ADAPTED GFS AND EC
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A LIKELY COOL NIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND HAVE ADDED PATCHY FROST IN
NORTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST IL WHERE WIND FLOW LOOKS
LIGHTEST. GUIDANCE IS IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER LONG WAVE
TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PERIOD OVER THE
ROCKIES TO CENTRAL U.S...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH LOW-
LEVEL MASS FIELDS AND JUST GENERAL EVOLUTION ARE EVIDENT IN THIS
TIME. HAVE USED A WELL-VERIFYING BLEND OF GRIDDED MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE TIME BEING.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IN THE AREA LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
* GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS VEERING WEST.
RC
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING HAS KICKED OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER SE MN AND NE IA WHICH WILL
ARRIVE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THESE LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE HIGH BASED AND FAIRLY WIDELY
SCATTERED IN COVERAGE SO THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY IMPACTS DIRECTLY AT
THE TERMINALS IS LOW. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL BEGIN TO GUST SOMETIME SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THEN VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA. SUBSIDENCE WILL SET IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT ALLOWING DRYING/WARMING OF THE MID LEVELS WHICH WILL
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND LESS CLOUD COVER FOR WEDNESDAY.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH.
RC
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
THURSDAY...SLT CHC RAIN.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CHC SHRA.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
240 AM CDT
WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK. TODAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT WILL TURN
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE LAKE. DEEP MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 30 KT. MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO TAPER FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST OF THE LAKE.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM
WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...3 PM TUESDAY TO 4
AM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1050 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1049 AM CDT
FOR MORNING UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO SHOWER COVERAGE/AREAS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA AT TIMES INTO EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...THEN DRYING FROM THE
WEST. HAVE ALSO INDICATED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FROM ABOUT NOON THROUGH 4-5 PM.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT 15Z...ROUGHLY ALONG A MILWAUKEE-PERU-GALESBURG
LINE AT THIS TIME. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WAS GENERALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT JUST
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. WHILE HEAVIER MORNING SHOWERS WERE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA...ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS
NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM IOWA INTO
NORTHERN IL. SCATTERED LIGHTER SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF
THE MID-LEVEL VORT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL...HOWEVER HIGH-RES MODEL
RUNS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
AND DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION. THUS WHILE A SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...IT
APPEARS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WILL A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS. SPC
RAP-MESOANALYSIS GRAPHICS SHOW SOME WEAK MUCAPE AROUND 100 J/KG
THERE NOW...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE RAP AND THE 12Z
NAM SUPPORT MLCAPES IN THE 500-700 J/KG DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF A
PONTIAC TO VALPARAISO LINE THIS AFTERNOON. GREATER COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY END UP BEING JUST OFF TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...RAIN THREAT SHOULD END FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RATZER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
316 AM CDT
THIS WEEK LOOKS TO BE FREE OF ANY HIGH IMPACT WEATHER FOR THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SOME SMALLER CONCERNS OF SHOWERS TODAY...HOW
FAR NORTH RAIN REACHES THURSDAY...AND POTENTIALLY FROST OR FREEZE
FRIDAY NIGHT. EARLY NEXT WEEK A POSSIBLY AMPLIFYING TROUGH MAY
BRING ACTIVE AND/OR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY BUT WITH IT BEING A WEEK OUT AND GIVEN THE ALREADY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WE ARE IN MAKING IT CHALLENGING ON COMPUTER
MODELS...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS.
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...
THE STATIONARY AND MASSIVE ANOMALOUS LONG WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE FOR
THE AREA. STRONGLY CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THIS AND AN
ACTIVE NORTH PACIFIC JET IS DRIVING THE POLAR JET STREAM
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST WITH VIGOR. THIS 120-150 KT
NORTHWESTERLY JET AXIS HAS MULTIPLE SHEARED SHORT WAVE IMPULSES
RIDING ALONG IT AND FRONTOGENETICALLY INFLUENCING AN ALREADY TIGHT
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS WILL BE THE PLAYER FOR SOME RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES TODAY...INCLUDING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A DEPARTING WAVE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL IL AT 3 AM...AND ONE IMPULSE OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. WHILE THE FIRST WAVE WILL HAVE MUCH BETTER COVERAGE
OF RAIN...IT WILL BE EXITING BY 9-10 AM OR SO. THE SECOND WAVE
WILL DROP OVER THE AREA DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THIS IS
FAIRLY MOISTURE-STARVED AND ITS ZONE OF FORCING IS NARROW...SO
ONLY HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THIS MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST IL AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR
TONIGHT AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS WAVE AIDING IN A BREEZY
WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD REALIZE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE WITH MID 60S COVERING A LARGE PART OF THE
AREA ESPECIALLY IF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE OCCUR WHICH ARE EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES DUE TO WEAK COOL AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED JET AXIS ROUNDS THE UPPER TROUGH...THE LOW
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PULL AWAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THAT JET ALONG WITH A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA IN THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM/FORCING
WILL POTENTIALLY INTERACT WITH A TIGHTENING OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND POSSIBLY SOME MOISTURE FROM
EASTERN PACIFIC LANDFALLING TROPICAL STORM SIMON. EITHER WAY...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE REGION WILL BE UNDER SOME SUPPORT FOR RAIN. THE
CHALLENGE IS HOW FAR NORTH RAIN WILL REACH AS A DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR
MASS WILL BE OVER THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH.
DPROG/DT IN GUIDANCE INDICATES A GENERAL TREND OVER SEVERAL RUNS
TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WHICH COULD MEAN NORTH OF I-80 WILL
NOT SEE ANYTHING...AND MAYBE IN TIME A LARGER PART OF THE AREA.
FOR NOW HAVE TIGHTENED UP THE GRADIENT IN FORECAST POPS ALONG WITH
HAVING SHIFTED SOUTH SOME.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ENVELOP THE REGION FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THIS IS WELL
AGREED UPON ON GUIDANCE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH LAKE INDUCED
CLOUD COVER THERE IS INTO THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH AT LEAST
SCATTERED CLOUDS APPEAR PROBABLE BASED ON ADAPTED GFS AND EC
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A LIKELY COOL NIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND HAVE ADDED PATCHY FROST IN
NORTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST IL WHERE WIND FLOW LOOKS
LIGHTEST. GUIDANCE IS IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER LONG WAVE
TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PERIOD OVER THE
ROCKIES TO CENTRAL U.S...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH LOW-
LEVEL MASS FIELDS AND JUST GENERAL EVOLUTION ARE EVIDENT IN THIS
TIME. HAVE USED A WELL-VERIFYING BLEND OF GRIDDED MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE TIME BEING.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
* GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS VEERING WEST.
RC
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING HAS KICKED OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER SE MN AND NE IA WHICH WILL
ARRIVE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THESE LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE HIGH BASED AND FAIRLY WIDELY
SCATTERED IN COVERAGE SO THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY IMPACTS DIRECTLY AT
THE TERMINALS IS LOW. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL BEGIN TO GUST SOMETIME SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THEN VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA. SUBSIDENCE WILL SET IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT ALLOWING DRYING/WARMING OF THE MID LEVELS WHICH WILL
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND LESS CLOUD COVER FOR WEDNESDAY.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* HIGH.
RC
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
THURSDAY...SLT CHC RAIN.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CHC SHRA.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
240 AM CDT
WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK. TODAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT WILL TURN
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE LAKE. DEEP MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 30 KT. MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO TAPER FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST OF THE LAKE.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM
WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...3 PM TUESDAY TO 4
AM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1105 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS
APPROACHING THE STATE FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST
KENTUCKY ARE STILL IN THE 50S FOR MOST SPOTS...BUT SOME LOWER 60S ARE
FOUND IN THE FAR SOUTH. HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY
SETTING THE STAGE...WHEN COMBINED WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL SPEED MAX...
FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS. A SPIN UP
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE WIND PROFILE AND POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASED INSTABILITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
STORMS WILL HAVE TO GET A BIT TALLER TODAY THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY
TO PRODUCE SIMILAR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS GIVEN HIGHER FREEZING LEVELS.
IN THE MEANTIME...A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CROSSING THE NORTHERN PARTS OF AREA WITH A CLUSTER MOVING EAST ALONG
THE TENNESSEE BORDER BRUSHING THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. WINDS ACROSS
EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE BREEZY TODAY FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO TIME THE
PCPN THIS AFTERNOON PER THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE. ALSO FINE
TUNED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BASED ON THE
LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THE UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. SENT OUT A BEEFED UP HWO EARLIER
THIS MORNING FOR THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. AN
UPDATED ZFP WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 739 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
UPDATED THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT TO REMOVE THE PRE FIRST PERIOD
THAT WAS INCLUDED WITH THE 4 AM FORECAST PACKAGE. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
NEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TAKING PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. NONE OF THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE
REALLY BEEN PICKING UP ON THIS ACTIVITY...SO THE FORECAST GRIDS
THROUGH 12Z TODAY WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS IN RADAR
IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE REGION. THE FORECAST FROM
12Z TODAY THROUGH 0Z THURSDAY WAS HANDLED BEST BY A COMBINATION OF
THE HRRR MODEL AND A MODIFIED VERSION OF THE LATEST CONSALL RUN.
AFTER THE CURRENT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FINALLY MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE
ACTION THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. AFTER THAT...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FIRE QUICKLY...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE
BASED OF A MUCH LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT. CURRENT OBS
ARE ALSO SUGGESTING THE PRESENCE OF SOME SORT OF WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ALSO
PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FORCING MECHANISM FOR SHOWER AND STORM
FORMATION LATER THIS MORNING. THAT ALL BEING SAID...THE MOST ACTIVE
PART OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. THE MOST INTENSE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
DURING PEAK HEATING AND WHILE A 40 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM.
SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTING WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR TODAY.
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PROBABLY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE SHIFTING OF WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OFF TO OUR EAST. HIGHS TODAY AND
TOMORROW SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 70 WITH TONIGHT/S LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUES TO LOOK IN THE OFFING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY AS A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GET HUNG UP ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT AND INDIVIDUAL BOUTS OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF MORE DUE TO ITS BETTER CONTINUITY
COMPARED TO THAT OF THE GFS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH
OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS BRINGING A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE
AS DEEPER TROUGHING BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A
FINAL COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA...POSSIBLY AS
LATE AS NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
JKL AND SJS WILL SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH 13 OR 14Z THIS
MORNING. AFTER THAT...THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE FREE FROM PRECIPITATION
FOR 2 OR 3 HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN MOVE
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN 16 AND 17Z. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF AND
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. BASED ON CURRENT DATA...THE TAF SITES WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE COMPLETELY FREE FROM RAIN UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE
TAF VALID PERIOD. SOME OF THE STORMS TODAY COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY. ANY AIRPORT
THAT EXPERIENCES A THUNDERSTORM TODAY COULD EXPERIENCE ANYWHERE FROM
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1101 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2014
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1058 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2014
Have updated the forecast to reflect the latest trends. Showers
continue to dissipate over central Kentucky, as warm-air advection
convection has been confined further to the south in TN. However,
strong thunderstorms have pushed into southern Indiana. These will
continue to push through, likely maintaining at least some strength
as they head into the region.
The main severe threat will be later on this afternoon, and the
threat continues to remain conditional at this time. It will all
hinge on just how much instability can be realized along a weak
front/wind shift pushing through this afternoon, and if
surface-based convection will fire along it. In addition, mid-level
height rises may tend to hinder updraft strength. Nonetheless, the
latest HRRR continues to suggest that scattered storms, potentially
supercells, will develop across central KY this afternoon. Large
hail will be the main threat, but damaging winds and even an
isolated tornado or two will be possible. Low-level shear is a bit
more impressive today than it was on Monday, so do think there is a
conditional tornado threat today if surface-based storms can
develop.
Issued at 710 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2014
Adjusted POPs to delay the next round of convection by a few hours.
A complex of showers with embedded thunder was headed east from
Illinois with a few stronger cells popping up in our area as of
7am. The latest HRRR indicates we`ll continue to see these stronger
cells form out ahead of the main line and those will be the ones to
watch as far as any immediate threat for strong to severe storms.
Also of note, the HRRR has the line strengthen toward mid to late
morning as it moves through the region.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2014
...Strong Storms Possible Today...
Early this morning convection has already begun to get going again
on arrival of an upper level shortwave from the south. Numerous
storms were popping up from Morgantown to Stanford early this
morning. The cells likely contain some small hail in addition to
heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Will continue to monitor
these storms closely as they grow upscale but overall not expecting
them to reach severe limits due to lack of instability currently.
This early morning wave of convection will be the first of
potentially three waves. This first wave looks to push through the
region during the pre-dawn hours. We should see a break in precip
around sunrise or shortly after before another wave of convection
arrives by mid to late morning courtesy of a potent shortwave diving
SE across MO/IL early this morning. Convection with this wave has
the potential to be strong to severe as a 50-60 kt h7 jet dives into
the area along with the nose of a potent upper level jet. Although
wind fields are impressive, available instability remains a big
question mark for today. The NAM and GFS seem to be quite generous
with instability which may work out like yesterday. However,
yesterday we were more aligned with the base axis of the upper
trough which seemed to be pretty efficient in clearing clouds after
rounds of convection possibly due to unidirectional wind fields
throughout the column. Today we`ll enter the western side of the
trough and upper level winds will become more NW which may result in
more clouds overall as clouds from convection upstream get blown
into our region. This is already the apparent trend looking at
satellite imagery early this morning. If we`re cloudy for most of
the day, think that storms will be limited in strength probably
remaining below severe limits. However, it should be noted, that if
we can some how get some clearing and instability that is advertised
by the NAM/GFS is realized, we could be in for a similar setup as
far as severe weather as we were yesterday with large hail, damaging
winds, and an isld tornado possible. The best time period for
strong to potentially severe storms with wave #2 is from mid morning
through mid afternoon.
Finally a third round of convection is progged by some of the short
range models during the evening hours over the Bluegrass and perhaps
south central KY as short range models indicate redevelopment
possible on boundaries left over by convection earlier in the day.
Again depending on how much instability is left and where those
boundaries lay out, the potential for strong to marginally severe
storms exists. Keep an eye on forecast updates throughout the day
in case storms do end up being on the stronger side.
Outside of any storm today, expect gusty southwest winds with gusts
in the 20-30 mph range common. High temperatures should reach the
upper 60s and lower 70s.
Tonight convection will clear the area as the upper trough and cold
front move east of the region. Low temps tonight will fall into the
upper 40s and lower 50s with some light fog possible.
Wednesday will be dry and sunny with highs in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2014
...A wet week expected beginning as early as late Thursday and
continuing into the weekend...
Late Wednesday, the upper air pattern will feature split flow across
the Rockies, with ridging across Idaho north of a 500mb trough
associated with the southern stream of the jet forecast over
Arizona. Both branches of the jet will come together over the plains
within a confluent low well south of a retreating deep low over
Hudson`s Bay.
Initially, dry air will reside over the Commonwealth within a light
wind regime. However, towards late Thursday, Gulf moisture, along
with moisture from the remains of former eastern Pacific hurricane
Simon, will push north across the southern Plains and the Lower
Mississippi Valley. By late Thursday, a frontal boundary will
develop eastwards of weak low pressure forecast to develop near the
Texas Panhandle. It will extend eastwards and lie somewhere over or
near the Commonwealth. This boundary, parallel to the mid and upper
level winds, will move little over several days and will become the
focus of several episodes of showers through at least Saturday.
Wednesday night will stay mostly clear with light winds and lows
ranging from near 50 to the lower 50s. Mid and upper level moisture
will begin to stream in from the west by mid to late Thursday, with
a change of rain developing by late Thursday or early Friday. Highs
Thursday will reach the lower 70s.
Various models vary on the exact placement of a nearly stationary
front from Late Thursday through Saturday. The latest NAM has this
boundary near Interstate 64 around dawn Friday; the GFS has it
around 75 miles farther north. Feel that moisture advection and
isentropic lift will bring rather widespread rains along and north
of this surface boundary. Precipitation will likely begin late
Thursday, mostly likely along or north of Interstate 64. Showers
will then overspread the entire region Friday, possibly bring
substantial rains of an inch or more. Some guidance has this surface
boundary sagging south late Friday into early Saturday, which may
allow a slowly southwards progression of precipitation towards the
Tennessee Valley. Both the ECMWF and to a much lessor extent the GFS
develop a 500mb trough over the Lower Mississippi Valley late
Sunday. Should this verify, additional rounds of precipitation may
continue Sunday and Monday.
It won`t rain the whole time from late Thursday through Monday.
Currently rain is quite likely from late Thursday through Friday,
with more episodic showers Saturday through Monday. Despite Monday`s
storms, we are relatively dry. However some locations this weekend
may eventually receive enough rain to create some runoff
problems.
With widespread cloud cover, temperatures Friday through Monday will
be somewhat seasonal, and depend on precipitation timing and the
eventual location of this afore-mentioned stationary front.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 700 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2014
Multiple rounds of showers and storms are expected for today
courtesy of continued shortwaves rounding the base of an upper
trough over the region. This first round has the potential to bring
IFR conditions to the terminals and perhaps some gusty winds as
well. Thus, included a tempo -tsra group for this morning. Most
short range models are in agreement that a second round of
convection should follow for this afternoon/evening. This second
batch has the potential to once again create IFR conditions as well
as gusty winds at the terminals. However, will try to focus on one
round of convection at a time and thus will hold off on flight
restrictions for this afternoon due to still a large window of
timing possibilities for t-storms to affect the terminals reducing
flight conditions. All convection has the potential to produce hail
with some potentially large hail possible. Outside of any t-storm,
SW-W winds will be gusty from late this morning through sunset with
gusts in the 25-30 kt range likely. Convection is expected to move
out of the region as the upper trough departs tonight.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........KJD
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......JSD
Aviation.......AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
640 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2014
.Update...
Updated aviation section for 12z taf issuance
&&
.SHORT TERM.../Today through Thursday night/
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2014
Another strong mid level impulse moving southeast toward the Lower
Ohio Valley this morning is responsible for widespread showers with
some isolated elevated convection. The strongest hail cores early
this morning have been over the Ozarks of south central MO. The RAP
model indicates a strong feed of moisture and elevated instability
into these storms /near 50 knots at 850 mb/. Mid level temps are
still very cold...producing steep 850/500 mb lapse rates over 7
C/km. The RAP indicates the 850 jet will translate eastward across
western KY early this morning. Some elevated hailers may affect
parts of our area early this morning...along with a widespread area
of light to moderate rain. Will go with categorical pops for many
areas this morning. Once the shortwave moves east of our area by
midday...the precip will diminish from west to east.
Similar to Monday...another surface trough/weak cold front will move
east across the Lower Ohio Valley during the afternoon. Once
again...there is some potential for isolated convection to develop
along this trough during the peak heating hours. Expect coverage to
be scattered at best...since the mid level shortwave will be
departing to our east and low level convergence will be weakening
along the dissipating surface trough. Despite very marginal
instability with mixed layer capes around 500 j/kg...an isolated
wind or hail event is possible given steep mid level lapse rates and
strong winds aloft /over 60 knots at 500 mb/.
Any lingering convection will end early this evening as the surface
trough moves south of Kentucky and the low levels stabilize.
Otherwise...mainly clear skies are expected tonight as drier air
arrives on light north winds. Low temps will fall into the upper 40s
to lower 50s.
On Wednesday...weak surface high pressure will pass almost directly
overhead. Abundant sunshine is expected...along with light winds and
seasonably warm temps in the 70s.
On Wednesday night and Thursday...a surface warm front is forecast
to develop over the Lower Ohio Valley and southeast Missouri. Clouds
will increase...along with the chance of showers. Instability is
forecast to be very minimal until the southwest low level flow
increases Thursday night. Therefore...thunder chances look very low
at least until Thursday night.
On Thursday night...the warm front should become quasi stationary
over southwest Indiana and southern Illinois. Showers and storms
should become rather numerous along the front as low level
convergence sharpens. However...most qpf guidance has decreased
somewhat...possibly because the main upper shortwave trough will
still be hanging back over the western high Plains.
.LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2014
The extended forecast continues to appear quite wet as a west-to-
east sfc frontal boundary will be in the general vicinity of the PAH
forecast area initially. The ECMWF and its ensemble mean was favored
by WPC for this forecast package, and this was generally followed,
especially late in the weekend and early next week, when it has a
much more amplified pattern across the CONUS than the GFS/GEM.
While the mid level flow over our region will be quasizonal through
the first half of the weekend, the nrn stream pattern should have
periodic impulses of shrtwv energy moving through, generating
intervals of rainfall, with little instability available for tstm
development. However, copious tropical Pacific moisture should allow
the possibility of heavy rainfall rates.
If the ECMWF forecast pans out, the aforementioned frontal boundary
will be shoved nwd as a warm front late Sunday and Sunday night,
followed by a deepening wave of low sfc pressure moving into the mid
MS river valley. The strength of this amplification is uncertain at
this time, but coverage of tstms will probably increase by Sunday.
Heavy rainfall rates are possible, and shear parameters suggest that
a few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out.
Based on this forecast, there should be a warm-up to above-average
temps by Day 7.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2014
Widespread showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will end from
west to east this morning. Prevailing conditions will remain vfr
during these showers...but occasional periods of mvfr are likely.
Will mention vcts at the kevv/kowb sites due to clusters of storms
in southern Illinois.
Gusty west to southwest winds in the wake of the system will bring
drier air this afternoon. A few isolated showers and storms are
possible after 18z...but they should be mainly southeast of the
kpah/kowb areas.
Gusty winds will diminish around sunset. Light winds and mostly
clear skies overnight may lead to a little ground fog...mainly at
kcgi. Appears too shallow and patchy to mention in taf.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...DAB
AVIATION...MY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
739 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 739 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
UPDATED THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT TO REMOVE THE PRE FIRST PERIOD
THAT WAS INCLUDED WITH THE 4 AM FORECAST PACKAGE. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
NEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TAKING PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. NONE OF THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE
REALLY BEEN PICKING UP ON THIS ACTIVITY...SO THE FORECAST GRIDS
THROUGH 12Z TODAY WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS IN RADAR
IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE REGION. THE FORECAST FROM
12Z TODAY THROUGH 0Z THURSDAY WAS HANDLED BEST BY A COMBINATION OF
THE HRRR MODEL AND A MODIFIED VERSION OF THE LATEST CONSALL RUN.
AFTER THE CURRENT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FINALLY MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE
ACTION THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. AFTER THAT...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FIRE QUICKLY...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE
BASED OF A MUCH LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT. CURRENT OBS
ARE ALSO SUGGESTING THE PRESENCE OF SOME SORT OF WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ALSO
PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FORCING MECHANISM FOR SHOWER AND STORM
FORMATION LATER THIS MORNING. THAT ALL BEING SAID...THE MOST ACTIVE
PART OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. THE MOST INTENSE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
DURING PEAK HEATING AND WHILE A 40 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM.
SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTING WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR TODAY.
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PROBABLY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE SHIFTING OF WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OFF TO OUR EAST. HIGHS TODAY AND
TOMORROW SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 70 WITH TONIGHTS LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUES TO LOOK IN THE OFFING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY AS A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GET HUNG UP ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT AND INDIVIDUAL BOUTS OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF MORE DUE TO ITS BETTER CONTINUITY
COMPARED TO THAT OF THE GFS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH
OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS BRINGING A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE
AS DEEPER TROUGHING BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A
FINAL COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA...POSSIBLY AS
LATE AS NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
JKL AND SJS WILL SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH 13 OR 14Z THIS
MORNING. AFTER THAT...THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE FREE FROM PRECIPITATION
FOR 2 OR 3 HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN MOVE
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN 16 AND 17Z. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF AND
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. BASED ON CURRENT DATA...THE TAF SITES WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE COMPLETELY FREE FROM RAIN UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE
TAF VALID PERIOD. SOME OF THE STORMS TODAY COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY. ANY AIRPORT
THAT EXPERIENCES A THUNDERSTORM TODAY COULD EXPERIENCE ANYWHERE FROM
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
733 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
NEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TAKING PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. NONE OF THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE
REALLY BEEN PICKING UP ON THIS ACTIVITY...SO THE FORECAST GRIDS
THROUGH 12Z TODAY WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS IN RADAR
IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE REGION. THE FORECAST FROM
12Z TODAY THROUGH 0Z THURSDAY WAS HANDLED BEST BY A COMBINATION OF
THE HRRR MODEL AND A MODIFIED VERSION OF THE LATEST CONSALL RUN.
AFTER THE CURRENT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FINALLY MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE
ACTION THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. AFTER THAT...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FIRE QUICKLY...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE
BASED OF A MUCH LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT. CURRENT OBS
ARE ALSO SUGGESTING THE PRESENCE OF SOME SORT OF WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ALSO
PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FORCING MECHANISM FOR SHOWER AND STORM
FORMATION LATER THIS MORNING. THAT ALL BEING SAID...THE MOST ACTIVE
PART OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. THE MOST INTENSE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
DURING PEAK HEATING AND WHILE A 40 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM.
SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTING WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR TODAY.
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PROBABLY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE SHIFTING OF WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OFF TO OUR EAST. HIGHS TODAY AND
TOMORROW SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 70 WITH TONIGHTS LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUES TO LOOK IN THE OFFING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY AS A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GET HUNG UP ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT AND INDIVIDUAL BOUTS OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF MORE DUE TO ITS BETTER CONTINUITY
COMPARED TO THAT OF THE GFS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH
OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS BRINGING A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE
AS DEEPER TROUGHING BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A
FINAL COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA...POSSIBLY AS
LATE AS NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
JKL AND SJS WILL SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH 13 OR 14Z THIS
MORNING. AFTER THAT...THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE FREE FROM PRECIPITATION
FOR 2 OR 3 HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN MOVE
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN 16 AND 17Z. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF AND
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. BASED ON CURRENT DATA...THE TAF SITES WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE COMPLETELY FREE FROM RAIN UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE
TAF VALID PERIOD. SOME OF THE STORMS TODAY COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY. ANY AIRPORT
THAT EXPERIENCES A THUNDERSTORM TODAY COULD EXPERIENCE ANYWHERE FROM
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
712 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2014
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 710 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2014
Adjusted POPs to delay the next round of convection by a few hours.
A complex of showers with embedded thunder was headed east from
Illinois with a few stronger cells popping up in our area as of
7am. The latest HRRR indicates we`ll continue to see these stronger
cells form out ahead of the main line and those will be the ones to
watch as far as any immediate threat for strong to severe storms.
Also of note, the HRRR has the line strengthen toward mid to late
morning as it moves through the region.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2014
...Strong Storms Possible Today...
Early this morning convection has already begun to get going again
on arrival of an upper level shortwave from the south. Numerous
storms were popping up from Morgantown to Stanford early this
morning. The cells likely contain some small hail in addition to
heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Will continue to monitor
these storms closely as they grow upscale but overall not expecting
them to reach severe limits due to lack of instability currently.
This early morning wave of convection will be the first of
potentially three waves. This first wave looks to push through the
region during the pre-dawn hours. We should see a break in precip
around sunrise or shortly after before another wave of convection
arrives by mid to late morning courtesy of a potent shortwave diving
SE across MO/IL early this morning. Convection with this wave has
the potential to be strong to severe as a 50-60 kt h7 jet dives into
the area along with the nose of a potent upper level jet. Although
wind fields are impressive, available instability remains a big
question mark for today. The NAM and GFS seem to be quite generous
with instability which may work out like yesterday. However,
yesterday we were more aligned with the base axis of the upper
trough which seemed to be pretty efficient in clearing clouds after
rounds of convection possibly due to unidirectional wind fields
throughout the column. Today we`ll enter the western side of the
trough and upper level winds will become more NW which may result in
more clouds overall as clouds from convection upstream get blown
into our region. This is already the apparent trend looking at
satellite imagery early this morning. If we`re cloudy for most of
the day, think that storms will be limited in strength probably
remaining below severe limits. However, it should be noted, that if
we can some how get some clearing and instability that is advertised
by the NAM/GFS is realized, we could be in for a similar setup as
far as severe weather as we were yesterday with large hail, damaging
winds, and an isld tornado possible. The best time period for
strong to potentially severe storms with wave #2 is from mid morning
through mid afternoon.
Finally a third round of convection is progged by some of the short
range models during the evening hours over the Bluegrass and perhaps
south central KY as short range models indicate redevelopment
possible on boundaries left over by convection earlier in the day.
Again depending on how much instability is left and where those
boundaries lay out, the potential for strong to marginally severe
storms exists. Keep an eye on forecast updates throughout the day
in case storms do end up being on the stronger side.
Outside of any storm today, expect gusty southwest winds with gusts
in the 20-30 mph range common. High temperatures should reach the
upper 60s and lower 70s.
Tonight convection will clear the area as the upper trough and cold
front move east of the region. Low temps tonight will fall into the
upper 40s and lower 50s with some light fog possible.
Wednesday will be dry and sunny with highs in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2014
...A wet week expected beginning as early as late Thursday and
continuing into the weekend...
Late Wednesday, the upper air pattern will feature split flow across
the Rockies, with ridging across Idaho north of a 500mb trough
associated with the southern stream of the jet forecast over
Arizona. Both branches of the jet will come together over the plains
within a confluent low well south of a retreating deep low over
Hudson`s Bay.
Initially, dry air will reside over the Commonwealth within a light
wind regime. However, towards late Thursday, Gulf moisture, along
with moisture from the remains of former eastern Pacific hurricane
Simon, will push north across the southern Plains and the Lower
Mississippi Valley. By late Thursday, a frontal boundary will
develop eastwards of weak low pressure forecast to develop near the
Texas Panhandle. It will extend eastwards and lie somewhere over or
near the Commonwealth. This boundary, parallel to the mid and upper
level winds, will move little over several days and will become the
focus of several episodes of showers through at least Saturday.
Wednesday night will stay mostly clear with light winds and lows
ranging from near 50 to the lower 50s. Mid and upper level moisture
will begin to stream in from the west by mid to late Thursday, with
a change of rain developing by late Thursday or early Friday. Highs
Thursday will reach the lower 70s.
Various models vary on the exact placement of a nearly stationary
front from Late Thursday through Saturday. The latest NAM has this
boundary near Interstate 64 around dawn Friday; the GFS has it
around 75 miles farther north. Feel that moisture advection and
isentropic lift will bring rather widespread rains along and north
of this surface boundary. Precipitation will likely begin late
Thursday, mostly likely along or north of Interstate 64. Showers
will then overspread the entire region Friday, possibly bring
substantial rains of an inch or more. Some guidance has this surface
boundary sagging south late Friday into early Saturday, which may
allow a slowly southwards progression of precipitation towards the
Tennessee Valley. Both the ECMWF and to a much lessor extent the GFS
develop a 500mb trough over the Lower Mississippi Valley late
Sunday. Should this verify, additional rounds of precipitation may
continue Sunday and Monday.
It won`t rain the whole time from late Thursday through Monday.
Currently rain is quite likely from late Thursday through Friday,
with more episodic showers Saturday through Monday. Despite Monday`s
storms, we are relatively dry. However some locations this weekend
may eventually receive enough rain to create some runoff
problems.
With widespread cloud cover, temperatures Friday through Monday will
be somewhat seasonal, and depend on precipitation timing and the
eventual location of this afore-mentioned stationary front.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 700 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2014
Multiple rounds of showers and storms are expected for today
courtesy of continued shortwaves rounding the base of an upper
trough over the region. This first round has the potential to bring
IFR conditions to the terminals and perhaps some gusty winds as
well. Thus, included a tempo -tsra group for this morning. Most
short range models are in agreement that a second round of
convection should follow for this afternoon/evening. This second
batch has the potential to once again create IFR conditions as well
as gusty winds at the terminals. However, will try to focus on one
round of convection at a time and thus will hold off on flight
restrictions for this afternoon due to still a large window of
timing possibilities for t-storms to affect the terminals reducing
flight conditions. All convection has the potential to produce hail
with some potentially large hail possible. Outside of any t-storm,
SW-W winds will be gusty from late this morning through sunset with
gusts in the 25-30 kt range likely. Convection is expected to move
out of the region as the upper trough departs tonight.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......JSD
Aviation.......AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
649 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH
QUEBEC. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
645 AM UPDATE...LOCAL RADAR INDICATES RAIN IS MAKING ITS WAY
TOWARD NORTHWESTERN MAINE THIS MORNING. THE HRRR MODEL HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, AND
IT HAS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN MOVING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
9-1O AM. THE HRRR CAN OFTEN RUN AN HOUR OR TWO SLOW, AND WITH
RADAR RETURNS SHOWING UP JUST WEST OF THE QUEBEC/MAINE BORDER
ATTM, HAVE SPED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN JUST A BIT FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALSO REMOVED FOG FROM THIS MORNING`S FORECAST
AS IT HAS BEEN LIMITED BY INCOMING CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE,
EVERYTHING ELSE IS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL VERY SLOWLY SPIN EASTWARD
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE FRONT EDGE
OF THIS LOW, TREKKING JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, MOVING
INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THIS BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT NORTH
AND EAST THIS MORNING, MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BY NOON TIME. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
BE ACROSS WESTERN MAINE AND THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY, WHICH ARE
CLOSEST TO THE BEST DYNAMICS, BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AT LEAST A CHANCE
OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF OUR REGION, EXCEPT FAR DOWNEAST. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY,
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF ROUTE 11. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY
WILL BE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. THESE WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AS A
30-40KT 925MB JET MOVES OVERHEAD. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW AT
LEAST SOME OF THIS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN REGION AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST. THIS
INCREASING SOUTH FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
EXPECT WE`LL SEE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE RAIN TONIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. HOWEVER,
THE BREAK WILL BE VERY BRIEF AS ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL MOVE FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EVEN IF THE
STEADY RAIN STOPS TONIGHT, PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY AS MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED AT LOW LEVELS. WINDS WILL EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT LULL
AS WELL, BUT THIS TOO WILL BE BRIEF AS THEY INCREASE TOWARD
DAYBREAK. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME OF THE GUIDANCE, THE NAM IN
PARTICULAR, HAS AN AREA OF DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY (300-500
J/KG) WORKING INTO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, FEEL THAT THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE (THE GFS HAS LESS THAN 100
J/KG). WHILE A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO CAN`T BE TOTALLY RULED
OUT, COVERAGE WAS DEEMED TO BE NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD, IN THE 50S AREAWIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS OVRALL JUST A TAD SLOWER WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL RN BAND
FOR WED THAN YSTDY ATTM...SO MAY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR 6 HRLY QPF
TMG FOR WED. A COUPLE OF MODELS LIKE THE 00Z GFS AND NAM ALSO
INDICATE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE LATE WED MORN INTO AFTN
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT LOW TOP TSTMS...ACCOMPANIED
BY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HARD TO SAY WHETHER
THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS FOR ORGANIZED LOW TOP
TSTM STRUCTURES ATTM...BUT WE DID INCLUDE HEAVY RNFL AND GUSTY
STRONG WIND ENHANCED WORDING WITH CATEGORICAL RNFL POPS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT FROM LATE MORN INTO AFTN. STRONG WINDS ALF WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A PD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AS WELL. WE BEEFED UP WIND SPEEDS WED SPCLY LATE
MORN INTO AFTN WHERE WE INDICATE WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH...BUT
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADV ATTM...WHICH IS POSSIBLE.
FOR NOW...WE WILL MENTION WIND POTENTIAL IN THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK.
GREATEST RNFL TOTALS STILL LOOK TO BE OVR THE ERN HIGHLAND SLOPES
XTNDG FROM BAXTER ST PARK SW THRU THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS WERE
UPWARDS OF 1.50 INCHES IS POSSIBLE WITH TRRN DRIVEN UPSLOPE OF SSE
WINDS...WITH 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH ELSEWHERE...AND PERHAPS LESS OVR
SE PTNS OF THE FA.
ANY REMAINING SHWRS OVR THE FAR N AND NE SHOULD END ERLY WED
EVE...ALLOWING FOR CLRG FROM THE SW TO SPREAD INTO THIS REGION.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER WED NGT AFT MILD AND HUMID HI TEMPS WED...
WITH A MDT GRAD WIND PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
THU WILL BEGIN PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY...BUT LONGER RANGE MODELS...IN
PARTICULAR THE 00Z OPNL GFS INDICATES ANOTHER FAST MOVG S/WV APCHG
NRN PTNS OF THE REGION FROM QB LATE IN THE DAY AND CROSSING THIS
PTN THU EVE...BRING MORE IN THE WAY OF CLDNSS AND SCT SHWRS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOLLOWING THE S/WV FEATURE THU EVE...A RE-ENFORCEMENT OF LLVL COOL
AIR WILL BRING RELATIVELY COOL HIGH TEMPS AND NEAR SEASONAL LOW
TEMPS LATE THU NGT/ERLY FRI MORN INTO SAT WITH BREEZY SPCLY DYTM
WINDS...WITH CLDNSS AND ISOLD SHWRS ATTMS ACROSS THE N WITH WEAKER
S/WVS MOVG EWRD IN FAST ZONAL FLOW ALF.
STRONG CANADIAN HI PRES WILL THEN BRING SUNNIER AND MORE TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON SUN FOLLOWED BY A NGT FEATURING MORE RADIATIONAL
COOLING SUN NGT UNDER CLR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS. MON ALSO
LOOKS TO BE MSLY SUNNY...WITH SOME INCREASING CLDNSS LATE IN THE
DAY AS LOW TO MID LVL WARM ADVCN BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE SW.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE KFVE, WHERE CEILINGS WILL LOWER
TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, AND KBHB AND KBGR, WHERE BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO STRATUS AND FOG.
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN AREAS TODAY, WITH LESSER
CHANCES AT THE TERMINALS. REGARDLESS, VFR IS EXPECTED, EVEN IN
PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS WILL THEN LOWER TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY
IFR IN DRIZZLE AND OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR TO LOW IFR CLGS/VSBYS XPCTD ALL TAF
SITES WED MORN WITH RN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS...THEN CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO MVFR FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. ALL SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY WED NGT..CONTG INTO
THU...WITH A BRIEF PD OF MVFR CLGS POSSIBLE WITH SHWRS LATE
THUS AFTN INTO THU EVE OVR FAR NRN TAF SITES. AFTWRDS...ALL
TAF SITES WILL HOLD VFR FROM LATE THU NGT THRU SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME, WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO BE MARGINAL.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A STRONG JET JUST OFF THE SURFACE, THE
COLDER WATERS SHOULD LIMIT MIXING AND THEREBY WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER,
THE THREAT IS THERE, AND SHOULD ANY OF THE STRONGER WINDS MAKE IT
TO THE SURFACE, GUSTS OF 25-30 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE THEREFORE
OPTED TO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: WILL CONT THE SCA FOR ALL WATERS FOR BOTH WINDS
AND SEAS THRU WED...LIKELY NEEDED TO BE CONTD AT LEAST FOR SEAS
ACROSS OUTER MZS050-051 WED NGT INTO THU MORN BEFORE FINALLY
SUBSIDING BLO SCA CRITERIA ACROSS ALL OF OUR WATERS LATE THU. WENT
WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE THIS UPDATE. VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY
BE REDUCED AT TMS TO BELOW A MILE IN HEAVIER RN AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT DURG THE DAY WED.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
758 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NW
ONTARIO WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO E UPPER MI
SUPPORTED SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER THE FAR ERN CWA
TOWARAD ERY. OTHERWISE...JUST MID CLOUDS PREVAILED ACROSS UPPER MI.
SOME -SHRA/SHSN OVER NW ONTARIO WERE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM
SHRTWV THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
TODAY...EXPECT THAT THE NW ONTARIO SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH
SFC HEATING AND A CONTRIBUTION OF LAKE MOISTURE WITH THE LOW LEVEL
WRLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN ISOLD/SCT -SHRA OVER MAINLY THE NORTH
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH THE STEEP SFC-700 MB
LAPSE RATES AND THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING WITH THE SHRTWV
ONLY VERY LIGHT QPF IS EXPECTED...GENRALLY LESS THAN 0.05
INCH...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS WITH AN INVERTED V TYPE
SOUNDING. TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S WEST AND LOWER
TO MID 50S OVER THE CNTRL AND EAST.
TONIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD
FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROPPPING TO NEAR -5C WITH THE PRESENCE OF
FAVORABLE 850-700 MB MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SOME NW FLOW LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT PCPN EVEN THOUGH LAKE-850 MB DELTA/T IS ONLY NEAR
14C. GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST A MIX OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
CONTINUED COOL...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
/MAINLY AWAY FROM S CENTRAL UPPER MI/...UNDER A W-NW FLOW REGIME.
COOL AIR ALOFT AND NEAR THE SFC WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE W THIRD OF THE CWA...INLAND FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR.
THE 500MB LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO AND WILL HAVE IT/S MAIN TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY. NW FLOW OVER UPPER MI WILL REMAIN...WITH THE NEXT W-E
ORIENTED TROUGH SET UP ACROSS MANITOBA AND W ONTARIO. LOOK FOR THIS
FEATURE TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE 500MB LOW SHIFTS FROM THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER AT 06Z THURSDAY TO CENTRAL QUEBEC BY 18Z
THURSDAY...AND NORTHERN ONTARIO BY FRIDAY MORNING. GFS WINDS ARE
QUITE HIGH FOR THE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...ON THE ORDER OF 10KTS HIGHER THAN THE 00Z CANADIAN/NAM AND
THE 12Z ECMWF. WILL WAIT UNTIL THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE FCSTED WINDS FOR THIS PERIOD.
TIMING ON EACH INDIVIDUAL WAVE IS UNCERTAIN...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
FINAL SHORTWAVE IN THE SERIES OVER MANITOBA AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY
WILL PUSH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH EXITS ON FRIDAY...THE LARGE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH
OF W CANADA AND THE W U.S. WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AT THE EARLIEST OVER THE W. THERE LOOKS TO BE SIGNIFICANT TIMING
ISSUES WITH THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD...SO A BLENDED SOLUTION SEEMED
REASONABLE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND LOW PRES TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT ONCE AGAIN RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN ISOLD/SCT LIGHT PCPN AND SUB-VFR
CIGS/VSBY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED AT
AND IWD THIS EVENING WITH A MORE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE WNW WIND
COMPONENT BEHIND THE TROF AT THE TIME OF DIURNAL COOLING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
A SURFACE LOW ROTATING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT AND GENERALLY W TO NW WINDS
OF 15-30KTS INTO THU. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THU NIGHT INTO SAT BRINING LIGHTER
WINDS...GENRALLY 20 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
713 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GATHER STRENGTH OVER ILLINOIS AND
INDIANA DURING THE MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVER THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR FOLLOWED BY VFR SHOWERS TOWARD NOON. THE
WAVE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE A HEAVIER SHOWER DURING PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING. A THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT WITH LESS
POTENTIAL COVERAGE THAN YESTERDAY...PLAN TO HOLD OFF ON A MENTION IN
THE DTW TERMINAL CORRIDOR IN FAVOR OF ADDITIONAL TIMING AND COVERAGE
REFINEMENT. THE SHOWERS WILL THEN EXIT SE MICHIGAN BY MID EVENING
FOLLOWED BY A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND VFR CEILING
LINGERING BELOW 5000 FEET UNTIL SCATTERING OUT LATER IN THE NIGHT
THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING AOB 5000 FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON POTENTIAL TO REACH CROSS WIND THRESHOLDS
TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 400 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
IN NEARLY A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF YESTERDAY...THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
SYSTEM IS ORGANIZING OVER ILLINOIS DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED PATTERN OF SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WITH
SIMILAR LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON TIMING AND THEN LAST THROUGH
MID EVENING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT
BEST POTENTIAL IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR DURING MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR WILL THEN SPREAD OVER THE REGION ON THE
HEELS OF THE WAVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS MATCH UP NICELY WITH EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE TRENDS...BOTH OF WHICH DEPICT A 150 KT UPPER JET MAX OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A SHARP LEFT EXIT REGION OVER THE MIDWEST.
THIS JET WILL BE RUNNING THE SHOW ON THE LARGER SCALE AS IT DIGS
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND HELPS THE WAVE
AMPLIFY OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. MODEL CONSENSUS DEPICTS AN OPEN
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT STRONG DEFORMATION DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
TROUGH AXIS AROUND THE 500 MB LEVEL DURING THE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL
MOTION FORCING THAT STARTS OUT AS PURE ISENTROPIC LIFT/THETA-E
ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING WILL THEN OBTAIN A STRONG DYNAMIC BOOST
FROM THE DEFORMATION THAT WILL BEND THE THETA-E RIDGE WESTWARD OVER
SE MICHIGAN BY MID AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY
NOT BE CONTINUOUS BUT GREAT ENOUGH FOR CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE
AREA EXCEPT LIKELY FOR MIDLAND AND BAY COUNTIES. ASSUMING MAX TEMPS
REACH THE LOWER 60S...THE CONSENSUS OF THE NAM AND RAP THEN POINT TO
SURFACE BASED CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG GATHERING ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH FROM THE OHIO BORDER UP TO ABOUT THE M-59 CORRIDOR WHERE THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. USING YESTERDAY AS A
GUIDE...WITH SIMILAR LOW FREEZING LEVEL AND WIND PROFILE...THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PEA SIZE HAIL AND 40 MPH WIND
GUSTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL END BY MID EVENING BUT COULD LINGER AS LATE AS MIDNIGHT
IN THE NORTHERN THUMB BEFORE THE WAVE EXITS INTO ONTARIO. THE
DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A PROGRESSION IN THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN THAT WILL CARRY THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH TOWARD QUEBEC AND
LEAVE DEEP NW FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
NIGHT. WESTERLY SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED MAINTAIN 10 TO 20 MPH AND
BRING ENOUGH COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA TO CARRY MIN TEMPS INTO THE
LOWER 40S UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WELCOMED CHANGES ON THEIR WAY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
BROAD...STRONG AND PERSISTENT UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS
BEEN HOLDING OVER NW ONTARIO FINALLY GETS PICKED UP BY THE
NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET AND FORCED EASTWARD. THOUGH THE LOW
WILL MOVE OVER QUEBEC BY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF THE COAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING...THE FULL EFFECTS OF ITS EXIT WILL
NOT BE REALIZED TIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
STILL LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION AT THE SFC BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR AND MORE TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WE WILL STAY COOL INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STAYS JUST TO OUR SOUTH UNTIL THE
END OF THE WEEKEND WHEN RIDGING APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS AND
WARMER SW FLOW REPLACES THE COOLER NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
LARGELY REMAIN IN THE MID 50S UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN WE NEAR THE 60
MARK.
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN COOL WITH GUSTY WNW FLOW...BUT DRY AIR WORKING
INTO THE REGION WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A DRY DAY FOR
MOST LOCATIONS IN SE MI. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE SOME LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE THUMB WHICH WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE
ENHANCED RIBBON OF MOISTURE RESULTING FROM A GOOD FETCH OVER LAKES
SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN AS THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR ON ITS WAY EAST WHICH WILL
CONSTRICT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP MIXED LAYER DEVELOPING WHICH WILL BRING DOWN
WINDS APPROACHING 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL START A STRING OF NIGHTS IN WHICH TEMPS WILL
DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING STRONGER
EACH DAY AND WINDS DECOUPLING EACH NIGHT UNDER CLEAR
SKIES...FAVORABLE RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ALLOWING
THESE COOLER TEMPS. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EVEN SEE FROST IN THE MORNING
IF WE ACHIEVE THESE COOLER TEMPS. WEDNESDAY MAY HOLD CLOSER TO 40 AS
THE WINDS MAY NOT SUBSIDE FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW LONG ENOUGH DURATION
OF COOLING...BUT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD HAVE CALMER WINDS.
NO REAL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EXTENDED UNTIL LATE ON
SUNDAY WHEN THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS THROUGH THE PLAINS
AND LEAD CYCLOGENESIS SPINS UP A SFC LOW THAT LOOKS TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION INTO MONDAY.
MARINE...
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE GREAT LAKES WATERS AS THE MASSIVE
LOW STILL LINGERS OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO KEEPING A STEADY FEED OF
COLD AIR OVER THE LAKES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE LATEST ROUND OF WIND. GUSTS SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH 25 KNOTS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP THROUGH LATER TODAY. AFTER A
BRIEF LULL TONIGHT...COLD WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY
OVER THE LAKES WHILE THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR ON
WEDNESDAY TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. WINDS
LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW GALES WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF LAKE HURON. THIS WILL LIKELY
NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
HURON...UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
904 AM MDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP JUST EAST OF BILLINGS
THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS WERE LOCATED FROM ASHLAND AND EXTENDED
NORTHWEST TO ROUNDUP. THE PRECIPITATION IS THE RESULT OF A BACK
DOOR FRONT ALONG WITH MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. FORCING IS VERY
WEAK AND WOULD ONLY EXPECT A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF
PRECIPITATION. ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO
EXTEND PRECIPITATION FURTHER EAST FOR LATE MORNING AND THE
AFTERNOON AS THE ECMWF BRINGS ENERGY ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES
ALONG WITH WEAK Q VECTOR FORCING. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE SSEO
WRF PRECIPITATION AND THE HRRR. EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW TODAY ALONG
WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND LOWER HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS HANDLED
WELL AND NO CHANGES MADE. RICHMOND
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
TRANQUIL AND MILD WEATHER WILL RULE THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW IN ONTARIO SHIFTS EAST...TAKING WITH IT A CORE OF STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT THAT HAVE BEEN AIDING GUSTY WINDS RECENTLY.
TODAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ONGOING IN CENTRAL MT AS
OF 08 UTC FROM LEWISTOWN TOWARD ROUNDUP AND LAME DEER. THE SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH
ACCOMPANIED A WEAK BACKDOOR COOL FRONTAL SURGE LAST EVENING. THERE
WILL BE WEAK...BUT PERSISTENT FRONTOGENESIS NEAR THAT ZONE THROUGH
THE DAY SO WE HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST IN PLACES NEAR
AND TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL FRONT. WE PULLED THE LOW-END
SHOWER CHANCE A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN EARLIER FORECASTS...AND THUS
INTO THE BILLINGS AREA...OUT OF RESPECT TO OVERNIGHT HRRR AND NSSL
WRF-ARW RUNS. OTHERWISE...MIXING WILL BE LIMITED IN MOST LOCATIONS
TODAY AND THUS HIGHS WILL BE COOLER THAN MON...MAINLY IN THE 60S F
EXCEPT FOR AROUND LIVINGSTON WHERE A WEST WIND WILL CONTINUE SINCE
THE WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT ISN/T EXPECTED TO MAKE IT THAT FAR WEST.
TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE WEAK MID-LEVEL
FRONT...WHICH MEANS MOSTLY NORTH AND EAST OF BILLINGS TOWARD MILES
CITY AND BROADUS. THERE MAY ACTUALLY BE SOME UPTICK IN THAT SHOWER
ACTIVITY AFTER 06 UTC IN SOUTHEASTERN MT AS SOME BETTER QG-FORCING
APPROACHES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AN IDEA SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE
00 UTC ECMWF AND NSSL WRF-ARW /BOTH OF WHICH HAVE HANDLED ISOLATED
SHOWERS WELL IN THIS REGIME OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS/.
WED...A WARM-UP IS EXPECTED AS MIXING DEEPENS IN MOST AREAS AS THE
LOW- AND MID-LEVEL FRONT MOVES BACK EASTWARD AS A WARM FRONT. SOME
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON WED AROUND BAKER NEAR THE FRONT
AND ON THE FRINGE OF A MODERATE SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO ND. WE ARE
EXPECTING HIGHS BACK ABOVE 70 F IN MANY AREAS WHICH FITS WELL WITH
THE 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THAT WAS THE BASIS FOR ALMOST ALL
OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST GIVEN THE LOW-IMPACT WEATHER AND RATHER
SMALL SPREAD IN INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
CONCERNING THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES STILL
EXIST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
OPERATIONAL GFS HAS TRENDED EVER SO SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE ECMWF
SOLUTIONS FOR THESE LATER TIME FRAMES. WPC HAS ALSO STATED THEIR
IN-HOUSE PARALLEL GFS IS MUCH CLOSER TO ECMWF CLUSTERING THAN THE
OPERATIONAL GFS. THEREFORE...WILL WEIGHT BLENDS FOR THE EXTENDED
TOWARD THE ECMWF.
SO MOVING FORWARD...EXPECT WEAK PACIFIC SHORT WAVES WITHIN AN
OTHERWISE ANTI-CYCLONIC LONG WAVE PATTERN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. FOR THE WEEKEND...A FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND CARVE OUT A LOW AMPLITUDE
YET BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN UNSETTLED AND PERHAPS BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH
PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH WIND AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE
LIKELY RESULT FOR THE PLAINS. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS..BUT THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OF
PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES PREVAILING...THOUGH NOT
AS WARM AS WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS WEEK. BT
&&
.AVIATION...
VARIABLE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TODAY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH
EASTERLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AT THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KLVM
WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN WESTERLY. BT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 067 047/074 046/064 045/065 047/068 046/060 042/061
2/W 10/B 00/B 20/U 02/W 12/W 21/N
LVM 075 043/073 040/066 040/067 043/065 039/056 036/059
0/B 10/U 11/B 10/U 02/W 22/W 21/N
HDN 067 043/075 044/067 043/066 045/070 043/062 040/062
2/W 11/B 00/B 21/U 02/W 22/W 21/N
MLS 063 042/070 041/064 042/064 046/070 044/062 040/061
2/W 21/B 11/B 22/B 11/B 11/B 21/N
4BQ 063 042/073 043/065 042/063 045/071 043/060 040/059
2/W 21/B 01/B 22/B 11/B 22/W 21/N
BHK 059 037/065 037/058 037/058 042/068 040/059 038/055
1/N 22/W 11/B 12/B 11/B 11/B 21/N
SHR 067 043/074 043/068 043/065 042/071 042/058 036/058
2/W 11/U 00/B 20/U 01/U 23/W 21/N
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
900 AM PDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST TODAY WILL
COMBINE WITH REMNANT MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM SIMON TO BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER
MOHAVE COUNTY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCREASE SKY COVER TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND TO SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON. NO CHANGE WAS MADE TO POP/WX GRIDS. SATELLITE LOOPS
SHOWED DENSE HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY AND UP THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. THE 12Z
LAS VEGAS SOUNDING SHOWED MOISTURE WAS IN THE 400-300 MB LAYER. GFS
HIGH LEVEL RH FIELDS INDICATE THIS CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. RADAR RETURNS SHOWED LIGHT PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF
I-40 THIS MORNING BETWEEN TWENTYNINE PALMS AND THE COLORADO RIVER.
THE LATEST HRRR DEPICTS ANY PRECIPITATION REMAINING OVER SOUTHEAST
SAN BERNARDINO AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE 12Z GFS KEEPS PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THESE AREAS
OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE TRENDS DETAILED IN
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
214 AM PDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF INYO, NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. THIS CLOUD COVER IS ASSOCIATED WITH TS SIMON AS IT HAS
MAKES ITS TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. SIMON IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE OVER NORTHERN BAJA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE DISSIPATING. A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE
COUNTY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AS HI-RES MODEL QPF PROGS
ARE IN LINE WITH THE COARSER RESOLUTION OPERATIONAL MODELS IN
HIGHLIGHTING THESE AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
QUARTER TO HALF INCH RAIN AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POTENTIALLY CREATING SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES. FOR AREAS
FURTHER WEST AND NORTH OF THESE TARGETED AREAS, ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED WITH LOWER RAIN
TOTALS. THE NAM12 LINGERS SHOWERS OVER MOHAVE COUNTY INTO THURSDAY
WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRY. DECIDED TO LEAVE A MENTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA WITH LESS CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CWA. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING TROUGH. WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ANY RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA ON
FRIDAY SHOULD BE SCOURED OUT ON SATURDAY UNDER INCREASING DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN THE HANDLING OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES. GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN THE FLATTEST/MOST
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH. MEANWHILE, THE 00Z/07 ECMWF CONTINUES
TO INDICATE A SHARPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY/MONDAY. A SHARPER SOLUTION WOULD
TRANSLATE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER NORTH BREEZES
ESPECIALLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TOUGH TO
IGNORE THE ECMWF SO HAVE BLENDED ABOUT 40 PERCENT OF ECMWF INTO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH HAS LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A FEW
DEGREES AND SHOWS MORE NORTH WIND FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A TYPICAL LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND COMPONENTS WILL
DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SCT-BKN CLOUDS
ABOVE 15 KFT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT THIS
AFTERNOON. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM SIMON WILL SPREAD
OVER SOUTHERN SAN BERNARDINO AND MOHAVE COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-40.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ADAIR
PREV DISCUSSION...SALMEN/PIERCE
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1053 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ALOFT BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1053 AM EDT TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF
THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING HAS MOVED
NORTH INTO QUEBEC. HAVE OPTED TO LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. WILL STILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NORTHERN NEW YORK...
AS SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO
LATE THIS MORNING. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SOME SUNNY
BREAKS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK STATE AT THIS TIME...
SO COULD SEE SOME PARTLY SUNNY BREAKS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 906 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADD
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS OUR SLV ZONES PER CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. BTV6 APPEARS TO BE CAPTURING THIS ACTIVITY QUITE WELL SO
LEANED TOWARD ITS SOLUTION. ACTIVITY LIKELY BEING DRIVEN AT LEAST
TO SOME EXTENT BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER LAKE ONTARIO...AS
BUOYANCY/SHOWALTER PROGS ELSEWHERE BASICALLY NON- EXISTENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
IN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THIS MORNING UNDER SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITH THE FIRST OF SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS LIFTING INTO WESTERN
PA/NY. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
STREAMING OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH ANOTHER BATCH UPSTREAM
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN PA AND CENTRAL NY. LATEST HI-RES HRRR AND
RAP MODELS ARE HANDLING THE CURRENT CONDITIONS FAIRLY WELL...AND
SHOW UPSTREAM PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
SUNRISE THIS MORNING WITH A LITTLE ENHANCEMENT AS IT MOVES
NORTH...BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT. SO WHILE THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE
SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING...OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE
LOW...JUST ENOUGH TO WET THE ROADS. BY THIS AFTERNOON WE`LL SEE A
BREAK IN ACTIVITY IN- BETWEEN SHORTWAVES WITH A FEW POKES OF SUN
LIKELY RIGHT AROUND SUNSET. A RELATIVELY POTENT SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER THE REGION AS WELL SO WE`LL SEE CONTINUED
GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE THROUGH THIS MORNING...ABATING
SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND
GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 433 AM EDT TUESDAY...AFTER A BREAK BREAK IN THE ACTION...A SECOND
AND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE BTV CWA
TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A MORE ORGANIZED PERIOD OF RAIN. AS WAS THE
CASE UPSTREAM TONIGHT...A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS AN AREA OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANIES THE
ENERGY ALOFT. IN ADDITION...SOUTHERLY LOW-MID JET REDEVELOPS AGAIN
AS WELL WITH ANOTHER RELATIVELY MILD AND BREEZY NIGHT EXPECTED
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MOST.
BULK OF THE PRECIP SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF JAMES BAY. ALOFT WE
REMAIN UNDER BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WHILE THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET SHIFTS NORTH OF THE BORDER...MEAN 925-850MB FLOW OF 30-40KTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY SOME
LAKE EFFECT WEDS NIGHT THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
TRENDS DRIER BUT COOLER AS COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES POST-FRONTAL
PASSAGE. 850MB TEMPS FALL BELOW 0C WITH A CHILLY THOUGH NEAR
NORMAL NIGHT EXPECTED WEDS NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. ONE LAST SHORTWAVE SKIMS IN THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...BUT BY AND LARGE CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY...COOL AND BRISK
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND MODEST WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 328 AM EDT TUESDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH GOOD CONSISTENCY
NOTED BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS. THE FORECAST PERIOD
BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION WITH A RETURN TO ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW. MAY SEE
A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS ONCE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. LOW TEMPS THURSDAY
NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. FRIDAY LIKEWISE LOOKS TRANQUIL WITH WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE 53-57F RANGE.
A DEVELOPING SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SLOWLY EASTWARD BRINGING A
PLEASANT WEEKEND TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND DRY WEATHER. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS SURFACE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THAT SAID...MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40 (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THE COLDEST 850MB
TEMPERATURES (-2C TO -3C) ARE IN PLACE ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SURFACE HIGH ON SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW-MID 50S. THE AIR MASS MODERATES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. ON
MONDAY...SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY
500MB FLOW. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S...BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A DEVELOPING CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY (30-40 POPS...HIGHEST WEST).
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING NEWD
THROUGH WESTERN NY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TAF SITES THRU 14-15Z THIS MORNING. NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY PROLONGED MVFR/IFR...BUT BRIEF INTERVALS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
15Z ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THEREAFTER...SHOULD SEE A
PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
REINTRODUCE CEILINGS AROUND 4-5KFT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY AND INTERVALS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY
POSSIBLE 06-12Z IN RAIN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTH
TODAY...WITH AREAS OF TURBULENCE/SHEAR ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. 40-50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE 3-4 KFT
AND GENERALLY ABOVE LLWS THRESHOLDS FOR INCLUSION AT THE TAF
LOCATIONS EARLY THIS AM. SHOULD SEE VERTICAL SHEAR DECREASE AFTER
14Z THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY. WITH LOW-LEVEL JET BETWEEN 1.5-2 KFT LATE TONIGHT. DID
INCLUDE LLWS 05-12Z AT THE TAF LOCATIONS FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING NEWD WILL BRING MORNING
RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY...ALONG WITH GUSTY S-SW
WINDS. GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS MORNING WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
PRODUCING WAVES ON ORDER OF 2 TO 4 FEET. A LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING BRIEFLY WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
DROPPING OFF SLIGHTLY...BUT STRENGTHENS AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH WINDS PICKING BACK UP ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS AND
REMAINING STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT ROUGH BOATING
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG/WGH/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...LAHIFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
906 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ALOFT BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 906 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ACROSS OUR SLV ZONES PER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. BTV6
APPEARS TO BE CAPTURING THIS ACTIVITY QUITE WELL SO LEANED TOWARD
ITS SOLUTION. ACTIVITY LIKELY BEING DRIVEN AT LEAST TO SOME EXTENT
BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER LAKE ONTARIO...AS BUOYANCY/SHOWALTER
PROGS ELSEWHERE BASICALLY NON-EXISTENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
IN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THIS MORNING UNDER SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITH THE FIRST OF SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS LIFTING INTO WESTERN
PA/NY. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
STREAMING OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH ANOTHER BATCH UPSTREAM
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN PA AND CENTRAL NY. LATEST HI-RES HRRR AND
RAP MODELS ARE HANDLING THE CURRENT CONDITIONS FAIRLY WELL...AND
SHOW UPSTREAM PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
SUNRISE THIS MORNING WITH A LITTLE ENHANCEMENT AS IT MOVES
NORTH...BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT. SO WHILE THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE
SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING...OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE
LOW...JUST ENOUGH TO WET THE ROADS. BY THIS AFTERNOON WE`LL SEE A
BREAK IN ACTIVITY IN- BETWEEN SHORTWAVES WITH A FEW POKES OF SUN
LIKELY RIGHT AROUND SUNSET. A RELATIVELY POTENT SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER THE REGION AS WELL SO WE`LL SEE CONTINUED
GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE THROUGH THIS MORNING...ABATING
SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND
GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 433 AM EDT TUESDAY...AFTER A BREAK BREAK IN THE ACTION...A SECOND
AND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE BTV CWA
TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A MORE ORGANIZED PERIOD OF RAIN. AS WAS THE
CASE UPSTREAM TONIGHT...A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS AN AREA OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANIES THE
ENERGY ALOFT. IN ADDITION...SOUTHERLY LOW-MID JET REDEVELOPS AGAIN
AS WELL WITH ANOTHER RELATIVELY MILD AND BREEZY NIGHT EXPECTED
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MOST.
BULK OF THE PRECIP SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF JAMES BAY. ALOFT WE
REMAIN UNDER BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WHILE THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET SHIFTS NORTH OF THE BORDER...MEAN 925-850MB FLOW OF 30-40KTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY SOME
LAKE EFFECT WEDS NIGHT THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
TRENDS DRIER BUT COOLER AS COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES POST-FRONTAL
PASSAGE. 850MB TEMPS FALL BELOW 0C WITH A CHILLY THOUGH NEAR
NORMAL NIGHT EXPECTED WEDS NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. ONE LAST SHORTWAVE SKIMS IN THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...BUT BY AND LARGE CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY...COOL AND BRISK
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND MODEST WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 328 AM EDT TUESDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH GOOD CONSISTENCY
NOTED BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS. THE FORECAST PERIOD
BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION WITH A RETURN TO ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW. MAY SEE
A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS ONCE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. LOW TEMPS THURSDAY
NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. FRIDAY LIKEWISE LOOKS TRANQUIL WITH WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE 53-57F RANGE.
A DEVELOPING SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SLOWLY EASTWARD BRINGING A
PLEASANT WEEKEND TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND DRY WEATHER. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS SURFACE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THAT SAID...MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40 (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THE COLDEST 850MB
TEMPERATURES (-2C TO -3C) ARE IN PLACE ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SURFACE HIGH ON SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW-MID 50S. THE AIR MASS MODERATES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. ON
MONDAY...SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY
500MB FLOW. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S...BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A DEVELOPING CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY (30-40 POPS...HIGHEST WEST).
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING NEWD
THROUGH WESTERN NY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TAF SITES THRU 14-15Z THIS MORNING. NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY PROLONGED MVFR/IFR...BUT BRIEF INTERVALS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
15Z ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THEREAFTER...SHOULD SEE A
PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
REINTRODUCE CEILINGS AROUND 4-5KFT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY AND INTERVALS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY
POSSIBLE 06-12Z IN RAIN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTH
TODAY...WITH AREAS OF TURBULENCE/SHEAR ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. 40-50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE 3-4 KFT
AND GENERALLY ABOVE LLWS THRESHOLDS FOR INCLUSION AT THE TAF
LOCATIONS EARLY THIS AM. SHOULD SEE VERTICAL SHEAR DECREASE AFTER
14Z THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY. WITH LOW-LEVEL JET BETWEEN 1.5-2 KFT LATE TONIGHT. DID
INCLUDE LLWS 05-12Z AT THE TAF LOCATIONS FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING NEWD WILL BRING MORNING
RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY...ALONG WITH GUSTY S-SW
WINDS. GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS MORNING WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
PRODUCING WAVES ON ORDER OF 2 TO 4 FEET. A LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING BRIEFLY WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
DROPPING OFF SLIGHTLY...BUT STRENGTHENS AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH WINDS PICKING BACK UP ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS AND
REMAINING STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT ROUGH BOATING
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...LAHIFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
750 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ALOFT BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 706 AM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH
JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS NEEDED TO MATCH OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
IN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THIS MORNING UNDER SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITH THE FIRST OF SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS LIFTING INTO WESTERN
PA/NY. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
STREAMING OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH ANOTHER BATCH UPSTREAM
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN PA AND CENTRAL NY. LATEST HI-RES HRRR AND
RAP MODELS ARE HANDLING THE CURRENT CONDITIONS FAIRLY WELL...AND
SHOW UPSTREAM PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
SUNRISE THIS MORNING WITH A LITTLE ENHANCEMENT AS IT MOVES
NORTH...BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT. SO WHILE THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE
SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING...OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE
LOW...JUST ENOUGH TO WET THE ROADS. BY THIS AFTERNOON WE`LL SEE A
BREAK IN ACTIVITY IN- BETWEEN SHORTWAVES WITH A FEW POKES OF SUN
LIKELY RIGHT AROUND SUNSET. A RELATIVELY POTENT SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER THE REGION AS WELL SO WE`LL SEE CONTINUED
GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE THROUGH THIS MORNING...ABATING
SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND
GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 433 AM EDT TUESDAY...AFTER A BREAK BREAK IN THE ACTION...A SECOND
AND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE BTV CWA
TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A MORE ORGANIZED PERIOD OF RAIN. AS WAS THE
CASE UPSTREAM TONIGHT...A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS AN AREA OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANIES THE
ENERGY ALOFT. IN ADDITION...SOUTHERLY LOW-MID JET REDEVELOPS AGAIN
AS WELL WITH ANOTHER RELATIVELY MILD AND BREEZY NIGHT EXPECTED
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MOST.
BULK OF THE PRECIP SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF JAMES BAY. ALOFT WE
REMAIN UNDER BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WHILE THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET SHIFTS NORTH OF THE BORDER...MEAN 925-850MB FLOW OF 30-40KTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY SOME
LAKE EFFECT WEDS NIGHT THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
TRENDS DRIER BUT COOLER AS COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES POST-FRONTAL
PASSAGE. 850MB TEMPS FALL BELOW 0C WITH A CHILLY THOUGH NEAR
NORMAL NIGHT EXPECTED WEDS NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. ONE LAST SHORTWAVE SKIMS IN THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...BUT BY AND LARGE CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY...COOL AND BRISK
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND MODEST WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 328 AM EDT TUESDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH GOOD CONSISTENCY
NOTED BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS. THE FORECAST PERIOD
BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION WITH A RETURN TO ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW. MAY SEE
A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS ONCE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. LOW TEMPS THURSDAY
NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. FRIDAY LIKEWISE LOOKS TRANQUIL WITH WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE 53-57F RANGE.
A DEVELOPING SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SLOWLY EASTWARD BRINGING A
PLEASANT WEEKEND TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND DRY WEATHER. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS SURFACE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THAT SAID...MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40 (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THE COLDEST 850MB
TEMPERATURES (-2C TO -3C) ARE IN PLACE ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SURFACE HIGH ON SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW-MID 50S. THE AIR MASS MODERATES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. ON
MONDAY...SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY
500MB FLOW. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S...BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A DEVELOPING CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY (30-40 POPS...HIGHEST WEST).
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING NEWD
THROUGH WESTERN NY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TAF SITES THRU 14-15Z THIS MORNING. NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY PROLONGED MVFR/IFR...BUT BRIEF INTERVALS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
15Z ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THEREAFTER...SHOULD SEE A
PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
REINTRODUCE CEILINGS AROUND 4-5KFT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY AND INTERVALS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY
POSSIBLE 06-12Z IN RAIN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTH
TODAY...WITH AREAS OF TURBULENCE/SHEAR ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. 40-50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE 3-4 KFT
AND GENERALLY ABOVE LLWS THRESHOLDS FOR INCLUSION AT THE TAF
LOCATIONS EARLY THIS AM. SHOULD SEE VERTICAL SHEAR DECREASE AFTER
14Z THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY. WITH LOW-LEVEL JET BETWEEN 1.5-2 KFT LATE TONIGHT. DID
INCLUDE LLWS 05-12Z AT THE TAF LOCATIONS FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING NEWD WILL BRING MORNING
RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY...ALONG WITH GUSTY S-SW
WINDS. GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS MORNING WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
PRODUCING WAVES ON ORDER OF 2 TO 4 FEET. A LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING BRIEFLY WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
DROPPING OFF SLIGHTLY...BUT STRENGTHENS AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH WINDS PICKING BACK UP ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS AND
REMAINING STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT ROUGH BOATING
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...LAHIFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
706 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ALOFT BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 706 AM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH
JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS NEEDED TO MATCH OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
IN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THIS MORNING UNDER SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITH THE FIRST OF SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS LIFTING INTO WESTERN
PA/NY. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
STREAMING OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH ANOTHER BATCH UPSTREAM
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN PA AND CENTRAL NY. LATEST HI-RES HRRR AND
RAP MODELS ARE HANDLING THE CURRENT CONDITIONS FAIRLY WELL...AND
SHOW UPSTREAM PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
SUNRISE THIS MORNING WITH A LITTLE ENHANCEMENT AS IT MOVES
NORTH...BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT. SO WHILE THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE
SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING...OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE
LOW...JUST ENOUGH TO WET THE ROADS. BY THIS AFTERNOON WE`LL SEE A
BREAK IN ACTIVITY IN- BETWEEN SHORTWAVES WITH A FEW POKES OF SUN
LIKELY RIGHT AROUND SUNSET. A RELATIVELY POTENT SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER THE REGION AS WELL SO WE`LL SEE CONTINUED
GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE THROUGH THIS MORNING...ABATING
SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND
GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 433 AM EDT TUESDAY...AFTER A BREAK BREAK IN THE ACTION...A SECOND
AND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE BTV CWA
TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A MORE ORGANIZED PERIOD OF RAIN. AS WAS THE
CASE UPSTREAM TONIGHT...A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS AN AREA OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANIES THE
ENERGY ALOFT. IN ADDITION...SOUTHERLY LOW-MID JET REDEVELOPS AGAIN
AS WELL WITH ANOTHER RELATIVELY MILD AND BREEZY NIGHT EXPECTED
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MOST.
BULK OF THE PRECIP SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF JAMES BAY. ALOFT WE
REMAIN UNDER BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WHILE THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET SHIFTS NORTH OF THE BORDER...MEAN 925-850MB FLOW OF 30-40KTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY SOME
LAKE EFFECT WEDS NIGHT THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
TRENDS DRIER BUT COOLER AS COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES POST-FRONTAL
PASSAGE. 850MB TEMPS FALL BELOW 0C WITH A CHILLY THOUGH NEAR
NORMAL NIGHT EXPECTED WEDS NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. ONE LAST SHORTWAVE SKIMS IN THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...BUT BY AND LARGE CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY...COOL AND BRISK
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND MODEST WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 328 AM EDT TUESDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH GOOD CONSISTENCY
NOTED BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS. THE FORECAST PERIOD
BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION WITH A RETURN TO ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW. MAY SEE
A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS ONCE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. LOW TEMPS THURSDAY
NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. FRIDAY LIKEWISE LOOKS TRANQUIL WITH WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE 53-57F RANGE.
A DEVELOPING SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SLOWLY EASTWARD BRINGING A
PLEASANT WEEKEND TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND DRY WEATHER. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS SURFACE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THAT SAID...MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40 (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THE COLDEST 850MB
TEMPERATURES (-2C TO -3C) ARE IN PLACE ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SURFACE HIGH ON SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW-MID 50S. THE AIR MASS MODERATES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. ON
MONDAY...SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY
500MB FLOW. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S...BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A DEVELOPING CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY (30-40 POPS...HIGHEST WEST).
&&
.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING NEWD
OUT OF THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TAF SITES THIS MORNING. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY PROLONGED MVFR/IFR...BUT BRIEF INTERVALS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z ASSOCIATED WITH PERIODIC SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THEREAFTER...SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL REINTRODUCE CEILINGS AROUND
4-5KFT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND INTERVALS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN S-SE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WILL
CREATE AREAS OF TURBULENCE/SHEAR ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. 40-50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE 3-4 KFT AND
GENERALLY ABOVE LLWS THRESHOLDS FOR INCLUSION AT THE TAF
LOCATIONS. SHOULD SEE VERTICAL SHEAR DECREASE AFTER 14Z THIS
MORNING. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTS 25
KTS POSSIBLE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING NEWD WILL BRING MORNING
RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY...ALONG WITH GUSTY S-SW
WINDS. GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS MORNING WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
PRODUCING WAVES ON ORDER OF 2 TO 4 FEET. A LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING BRIEFLY WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
DROPPING OFF SLIGHTLY...BUT STRENGTHENS AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH WINDS PICKING BACK UP ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS AND
REMAINING STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT ROUGH BOATING
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...LAHIFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1138 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE THE PARADE OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...WILL LOWER POPS FROM CAT TO LIKELY ACROSS ALL BUT SERN
/ERN COUNTIES AS MUCH OF THE PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH OR MOVING
TOWARD THE AREA IS LIGHT AND SPOTTY. MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
TRJECTORY APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA. HRRR COMING AROUND TO
THAT SOLUTION AS WELL. NO OTHER CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A PIECE OF JET ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE REGION AS OF 08Z. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE EAST
OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BY 12Z WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS AS WE GET THE
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE CURRENT SHORT WAVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WAIT
FOR THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT PIECE OF JET ENERGY THAT IS
DIGGING INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AS THIS JET
ENERGY MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS. LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP ENOUGH OVER THE
REGION TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. THE BETTER
CHANCES OF THUNDER WILL BE OVER THE LAKE WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY EXISTS.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY START AT SUNRISE FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH
THE SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE A CHALLENGE WITH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW LONG THE
SUNNY INTERVAL WILL BE. BELIEVE MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER
CHANCES OF THUNDER. THIS WAVE IS STRONGER THAN THE LAST COUPLE AND
WILL BRING A COOLER SHOT OF AIR WITH IT. AS THE COOLER AIR FLOWS
OVER THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY THERE WILL BE SHOWERS OVER NE OHIO
INTO NW PA. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER NW PA INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SEND ONE LAST PIECE
OF JET ENERGY AT THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD.
HOWEVER THE MAIN CONCERN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN ITS
STRENGTH AS IT MOVES UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HAVE CONTINUED THE
RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BUT BEST CHANCES WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
EACH PIECE OF JET ENERGY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WITH IT
THROUGH THE WEEK SO EXPECT HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER EACH DAY.
HIGHS BY FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WITH A COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE THICKEST IN
THE TYPICAL AREAS ACROSS NE OHIO...BUT WILL LIKELY EXTEND DOWN INTO
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED
DURING THE MORNING...WITH A GRADUALLY DECREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND WE MIX INTO THE DRIER AIR
ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MID 50S FOR ANOTHER DAY GIVEN
THE COOL NORTHERLY FLOW.
A PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AS THE NEW ENGLAND TROUGH DEPARTS WITH THE NEXT TROUGH ALREADY
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO START THE WEEK. A WARM FRONT
WILL TRY TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRATUS HAS BEEN EXPANDING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTH EAST OHIO
EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT SOME EXPANSION THROUGH ABOUT 13Z...THEN
GRADUALLY MIXING OUT THROUGH 15Z. MEANWHILE ANOTHER TROUGH WILL SWING
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN ON REGIONAL RADARS
MOVING INTO WESTERN OHIO. SHOWERS WILL REALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AFTER 17Z AND MAY LINGER IN THE FAR EAST INTO THIS EVENING. VFR
CEILINGS WILL DROP BACK TO MVFR IN SHOWERS WITH BRIEF IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BUT
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW ENOUGH THAT DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE
TERMINALS YET. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
20 KNOTS. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO VFR AT MOST LOCATIONS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE AT ERI ON WEDNESDAY THEN LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CLEVELAND EASTWARD ON
LAKE ERIE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TODAY AND WAVES WILL BRIEFLY DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW 3 FEET
FOR A WINDOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WIND WILL SHIFT
TO THE WEST WEST AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH
AND WAVES BUILDING DOWN THE LONG FETCH OF THE LAKE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED TO ALL OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY. AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW GALES BUT A FEW GUSTS
TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
LAKE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED ON THE EAST
END OF THE LAKE WITH WAVES SLOW TO RECEDE WITH A WEST/NORTHWEST
FETCH ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY
WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER LAKE ERIE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL RETURN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONGLY FORCED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. AN EMBEDDED S/WV WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL BE THE
IMPETUS TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS FEATURE WILL
INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL JET SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
RAP AND NAM SUGGESTING POSSIBLE 50 TO 60 KNOTS AT 850 MB. OVERALL
BULK SHEAR...0-3KM/0-6KM...WILL BE STRONG AS WELL. THE QUESTION
FOR TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF MLCAPES TO ADVECT NORTHEAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. BELIEVE WE WILL BE ABLE TO OBTAIN AT LEAST
500 J/KG. AND WITH THESE VALUES COMBINED WITH STRONG
SHEAR...STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT
WE MAY SEE A DEVELOPING LINEAR FEATURE WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
FORCING. IF SO...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO OCCUR
WITH THIS GIVEN STRONG WIND FLOW ALOFT. ALSO...WITH SUBSTANTIAL
SHEAR...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULE AT AS ELEMENTS IN THE
LINE MAY TAKE ON MINI SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS. WET BULB ZERO
WILL BE IN THE FAVORABLE 8-9 KFT RANGE...AND WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ROTATING STORMS...LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE
ROTATION PRODUCES STRONG LIFT...DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITIES.
SPC HAS PLACED OUR SRN CWFA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND THIS LOOKS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN
AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS. HAVE UPDATED THE HWO TO REFLECT THE
INCREASE IN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY
GIVEN CLOUDS....PCPN...BUT DECENT LOW LEVEL WAA. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOWER 60S NORTH TO UPPER 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NAM IS A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING PCPN OFF TO THE EAST THIS
EVENING AND BOTH THE NMM AND ARW ARE SUGGESTING A WEAKENING LINE
OF CONVECTION PUSHING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. NOT
SURE HOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT TO SUPPORT
THUNDER...BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND HANG ON TO SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS
INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING THEM OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL THEN TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN
WILL ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY
SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THESE SHORT WAVES AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE MUCH FASTER ECMWF AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING POPS
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LEANED TOWARDS THE QUICKER EXITING ECMWF MODEL WHICH WAS CLOSER
TO YESTERDAYS GFS. THE GFS SHUNTS THE FRONT FARTHER IN KENTUCKY
THAN THE ECMWF OR CMC FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS CAUSES A SLOWER RETURN IN
THE PCPN OVER THE WEEKEND.
ENERGY DIGGING OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES PUSHES THE MOISTURE BACK
ACROSS REGION SUNDAY AND DEVELOPS CDFNT FRONT WHICH PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS
RETURN MOISTURE AND FNT...SO HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF TIMING.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS...IN THE 60S...
FRIDAY. EVEN COOLER AIR WORKS IN ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WITH THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP A FEW DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEXT TROUGH IN A RAPID PROCESSION IS APPROACHING FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING.TIMING ON THE PCPN LOOKS A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN
YESTERDAY. MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED AT KLUK THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 12Z. THE NEXT CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS
IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS INDIANA AND SHOULD ENTER THE FORECAST
AREA AROUND 12Z AND REACH THE CENTRAL OHIO AREA AROUND 14Z.
SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA MUCH OF TODAY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BTWN 00 AND 03Z. BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDER WILL BE AT KCVG AND KLUK AND DECREASE NORTHWARD. A TEMPO
GROUP WAS USED IN THE KCVG AND KLUK TAFS TO REFLECT THE PERIOD OF
STRONGER PCPN. THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE SHOWERS
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. KEPT VCSH IN THE
TAFS INTO THE EVENING HOURS BECAUSE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER BAND OF PCPN PUSHING THROUGH THE TAFS BTWN
00Z AND 03Z. WHILE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
THUNDER... CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING. WITH THE RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY
LOOK FOR IFR FOG TO DEVELOP VCNTY OF KLUK AFT 06Z.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10KTS OR LESS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO
15 KT AND GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS AS THEY VEER MORE TO THE WEST BY
EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/JGL
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAYDU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
952 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. IMPULSES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND INTO THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING A RETURN TO
DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 952 AM EDT TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF WILL
PROVIDED LIFT TO CREATE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN SHORT LINE
SEGMENTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS WITH 85H WINDS
AROUND 40KTS. HOWEVER...WITH THE CLOUDS AND MORNING SHOWERS...
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AT BEST..AND DESPITE THE INCREASING
SHEAR...BETTER SUPPORT FOR STRONG STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
DISPLAYED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA. SPC IN THEIR DAY 1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK DECIDED TO PLACE A SLIGHT CHANCE (15% OF
SEVERE WEATHER) TO OUR WEST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN
OHIO AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA. THE MAIN THREAT IS WIND POTENTIAL.
SHAPED POPS THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS A BLEND OF
THE HRRR AND RNK WRFARW. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES TOWARDS CURRENT
OBS AND MODEL TRENDS FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
HOLD WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS...BECAUSE TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE LARGELY INFLUENCED BY EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND
TIMING/ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION. MORE CHANGES LATER...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...
BROAD QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ENERGY WAS PROVIDING DYNAMIC LIFT WITH
GREATEST UPPER LEVEL WIND DIVERGENCE OCCURRING NEAR THE BASE OF
THE TROF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS AREA OF FOCUSED LIFT WAS
INTERACTING WITH PLUME OF WARM/MOIST AIR FLOWING NORTH FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO...BOUNDARY LAYER CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG NOSING
INTO TENNESSEE AND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. THIS AREA OF JUXTAPOSED
THERMODYNAMIC AND DYNAMIC FORCING IS THE BREEDING GROUND FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAVE BEEN MOVING
DOWNSTREAM INTO OUR FORECAST AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
UNTIL THE TROF LIFTS NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.
THUS FAR...HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST STORMS HAVE RESIDED WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...AND MORE SO...AS YOU HEAD INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS.
THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TODAY AS THE BETTER LIFT AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE REMAINS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
MESOSCALE MODELS CONFINE MOST OF THE QPF TO OUR WESTERN CWA...WITH
UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE GREENBRIER AND NEW
RIVER VALLEYS...AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NW NC. AT SOME
POINT...PROBABLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY...ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS TO SURVIVE THE TRIP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
FORECAST TODAY WILL HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
(POP) AND ELEVATED QPF WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH INCREASING
POP AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME RAINFALL TO AREAS EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIMILAR TO LAST
EVENING...SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN SHORT LINE SEGMENTS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. 85H WINDS ARE RUNNING ABOUT
40KTS...AND MOMENTUM MIX DOWN WILL PRODUCE SOME HEALTHY WIND
GUSTS AT THE SURFACE. FORECAST REFLECTS GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THAT SAID...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AT BEST..AND DESPITE
THE INCREASING SHEAR...BETTER SUPPORT FOR STRONG STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DISPLAYED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA.
OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...ALTHOUGH RESPECTABLE IN THE
WESTERN CWA... SHOULD FALL SHORT OF ANY HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS.
UNLESS THE SHOWERS/STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO FOCUS THE HEAVY RAINFALL FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME DUE
TO THE FAST STORM MOVEMENT...MEAN CLOUD LAYER WINDS OF 45 KTS. IN
THIS HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOCUS SHOULD BE ON THE WIND AND
NOT THE RAIN.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE LARGELY INFLUENCED BY EXTENT OF CLOUD
COVER AND TIMING/ARRIVAL OF UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS.
COOLEST READINGS IN UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS...RANGING UP TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WHERE BETTER INSOLATION AND A LATER ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION
THREAT IS EXPECTED. READINGS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
MILD...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S PROVIDING A FLOOR TO THE
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND SUNRISE...TO WESTERLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL BRING AN END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY LEFT OVER FROM EARLY MORNING...
AS WELL AS HELP CLOUD COVER DIMINISH HEADING INTO LUNCHTIME. THE
COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE WINDS...RETREATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL HELP PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO THEIR
WARMEST IN SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE PIEDMONT CLIMBS INTO THE UPPER
70S/LOW 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO PUSH
OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MAKE FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS SINKING
GENERALLY INTO THE 40S. FACTOR IN MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS...AND
BELIEVE PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT.
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY AS OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH FROM
THE WEST...RIDING A FRONT THAT IS SINKING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BEGINNING
AROUND SUNSET...WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH WINDS RETURNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES AWAY...GULF MOISTURE WILL MAKE ITS RETURN...HELPING
TO MODERATE THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS BY HOLDING THEM IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW
50S WEST...AND THE UPPER 50S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT TUESDAY...
NEXT SIGNIFICANT TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
COMES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HELPING TO
DRAW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AND INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE FRONT IN ADVANCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HAVE LOWERED
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE WEDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE WAVES OF SHOWERS THAT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS...MOVING EAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO/TN VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE TO STEER
UPPER DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MAIN
FRONT NOT MOVING INTO THE REGION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. BREAK IN THE
ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR THIS MORNING MORNING...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE
REGENERATION OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN THREAT IN THE MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF ROANOKE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST. CLOUD BASES
DURING THE DAY TODAY SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AND LOW END VFR TO HIGH END MVFR IN THE MOUNTAINS. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO HAVE IFR GIVEN GOOD SW FLOW KEEPING CIGS/VSBYS MIXED.
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...
10-15KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. STRONGER SHOWERS AND
ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MIX DOWN STRONGER 30 TO 40KT GUSTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS (EXCLUDING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN SOME OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN
VALLEY SPOTS...SUCH AS AT/NEAR KLWB...KBCB) FOR WEDNESDAY INTO AT
LEAST THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE IMPINGES ON THE
AREA FROM THE WEST LATER THURSDAY OR ON FRIDAY. SUB VFR LIKELY
TOWARD SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND SFC HIGH MOVING EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES SETTING UP A WEDGE SCENARIO.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
254 PM MST TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...DECAYING TROPICAL SYSTEM SIMON WILL BRING AN
INCREASED RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA PRIMARILY
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS BY
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH MARKEDLY DRIER CONDITIONS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SIMON...NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH IS ABOUT 120 KM W OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
AS OF THE LAST ADVISORY BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF SIMON RESULTED IN HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS STREAMING INTO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD NOW APPROACHING SOUTHERN
WYOMING ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. AT THE SURFACE...24-HR DEWPOINT
CHANGES OF +5 TO +10 DEG F ARE NOTED THIS HOUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE MOISTENING OF THE LOW AND UPPER-LEVELS IS
QUITE APPARENT IN THIS MORNING`S 12Z KTWC SOUNDING...WHICH SHOWS A
PW VALUE OF 0.85 INCHES...UP 0.46 INCHES FROM 12Z MONDAY. RECENT
SATELLITE-DERIVED PW VALUES ARE EVEN HIGHER THIS HOUR...AROUND ONE
INCH EXCEPT ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES.
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS TWO AREAS OF PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FIRST...ENTERING S CALIFORNIA AND SW ARIZONA IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MAIN SLUG OF MOISTURE AND ASCENT FROM WHAT REMAINS OF SIMON. THE
SECOND IS AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH HAVE
FIRED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF TUCSON AMID LIMITED
BUOYANCY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND AND ISOLATED STORM ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP MOVES NORTH OUT OF
MEXICO. THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE OF THE CURRENT SITUATION AND BACKS UP THIS CURRENT FORECAST
THINKING WELL.
THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT DRIVING
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUCSON AND POINTS SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST WHILE THE GFS HAS RECENTLY SHIFTED ITS FOCUS SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. THE 12Z CMC...ON THE OTHER
HAND...PAINTS AN AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH THIS EVENT.
THINKING IS THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS DEEPER
MOISTURE ENTERS THE REGION AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IMPROVE WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW WITH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY FROM ROUGHLY NEAR TUCSON WEST...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN MANAGE
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. BASED ON COORDINATION WITH
EL PASO...HAVE DECREASED POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERNMOST ZONES SINCE IT
APPEARS THEY WILL BE DISPLACED TOO FAR FROM MID AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT TOMORROW.
STORM TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR THIS EVENT ARE GENERALLY A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH FOR THE EASTERN VALLEYS...AROUND ONE INCH ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES...AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE MAIN FOCUS STILL APPEARS TO BE ROUGHLY FROM TUCSON AND POINTS
WEST. BASED ON THESE FORECAST STORM TOTALS AND THE DURATION OF THE
EVENT...A WIDESPREAD FLOOD EVENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME
...BUT ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING
CONCERNS.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS
EASTWARD...ALTHOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE NECESSITATES KEEPING CHANCE
AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 08/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGHOUT...WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS ON THE INCREASE AS
WELL. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY
NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN FROM KOLS TO THE EAST. OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL POTENTIALLY IMPACT ALL AREAS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG A
LINE FROM KTUS TO KOLS AND AREAS TO THE WEST. BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO LATE WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWER CHANCES AND RISING DEWPOINTS WILL BE THE RULE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD
INTO ARIZONA. PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHOWERY IN NATURE...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FILTER
BACK INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND WILL LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST
MID NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN SOME GUSTY WINDS DUE TO THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
...PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...
LATE WEEK...BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS SHOWN MIGRATING SEWRD FROM
THE OH/TN VALLEYS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LONGWAVE TROUGH.
ONSHORE FLOW WL DEVELOP LOCALLY AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHALLOW MOISTURE WL PRODUCE SOME LOW TOPPED MARINE SHOWERS MOVING
ASHORE MAINLY FROM THE CAPE SWD TO THE TREASURE COAST.
EXTENDED...LIGHT TO GENTLE ONSHORE CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE WEEK
ALONG WITH MODEST MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS NEAR
THE COAST AND INLAND. SHOULD HGHT FALLS OCCUR OVER THE CARIB WELL
SOUTH OF THE STATE ONSHORE WIND TENDENCY LOCALLY MAY BE A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. VEERING FLOW WOULD LIKELY INCREASE
CHCS OF SHOWERS AS WELL GIVEN HIGHER MOISTURE SUPPLY.
&&
.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDS. BKN CLOUDS FL150-200 BECOMING SCT OVERNIGHT.
WDLY SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND
TREASURE COAST THROUGH 08/02Z. ADDITIONAL ISOLD SHRA OVER ATLC
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW BRUSHING TREASURE COAST. HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BRING PATCHY MVFR FOG...ESPECIALLY IN INLAND LOCATIONS.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS INTO WED WITH ISOLD SHRA VCNTY LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AND TREASURE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW 5-10KTS THROUGH
EVENING HOURS WILL BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND THEN BACK
EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS RIDGE AXIS BECOMES MORE WEST-EAST
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. GRADIENT EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY AS A
RESULT...WITH SPEEDS CLOSER TO 10KTS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS
2-3FT WITH A CHOPPY 4FT DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF STREAM AS WINDS
ALIGN TO COUNTER THE NORTHERN FLOWING STREAM.
WED-SUN...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL REMAIN SITUATED EAST-WEST
NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT. WIND SPEEDS MAINLY AOB 15 KTS
BUT THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OR TWO WELL OFFSHORE/SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRONGER WITH 15-18 KT WIND
SPEEDS POSSIBLE. SEAS IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE SHOWN COMMON OVER THE OPEN
WATERS WITH AROUND 2 FT NEAR SHORE. HEIGHTS RISING TO AROUND 4-5 FT
LATE FRI AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 68 87 67 87 / 10 10 10 10
MCO 69 90 67 89 / 10 10 10 10
MLB 71 87 71 86 / 10 10 10 10
VRB 70 88 71 87 / 20 10 10 10
LEE 69 90 67 89 / 10 10 10 10
SFB 69 90 68 89 / 10 10 10 10
ORL 71 90 70 89 / 10 10 10 10
FPR 70 86 71 87 / 20 20 10 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM/IMPACT WEATHER....SEDLOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
309 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1049 AM CDT
FOR MORNING UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO SHOWER COVERAGE/AREAS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA AT TIMES INTO EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...THEN DRYING FROM THE
WEST. HAVE ALSO INDICATED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FROM ABOUT NOON THROUGH 4-5 PM.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT 15Z...ROUGHLY ALONG A MILWAUKEE-PERU-GALESBURG
LINE AT THIS TIME. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WAS GENERALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT JUST
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. WHILE HEAVIER MORNING SHOWERS WERE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA...ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS
NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM IOWA INTO
NORTHERN IL. SCATTERED LIGHTER SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF
THE MID-LEVEL VORT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL...HOWEVER HIGH-RES MODEL
RUNS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
AND DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION. THUS WHILE A SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...IT
APPEARS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WILL A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS. SPC
RAP-MESOANALYSIS GRAPHICS SHOW SOME WEAK MUCAPE AROUND 100 J/KG
THERE NOW...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE RAP AND THE 12Z
NAM SUPPORT MLCAPES IN THE 500-700 J/KG DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF A
PONTIAC TO VALPARAISO LINE THIS AFTERNOON. GREATER COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY END UP BEING JUST OFF TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...RAIN THREAT SHOULD END FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RATZER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
316 AM CDT
THIS WEEK LOOKS TO BE FREE OF ANY HIGH IMPACT WEATHER FOR THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SOME SMALLER CONCERNS OF SHOWERS TODAY...HOW
FAR NORTH RAIN REACHES THURSDAY...AND POTENTIALLY FROST OR FREEZE
FRIDAY NIGHT. EARLY NEXT WEEK A POSSIBLY AMPLIFYING TROUGH MAY
BRING ACTIVE AND/OR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY BUT WITH IT BEING A WEEK OUT AND GIVEN THE ALREADY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WE ARE IN MAKING IT CHALLENGING ON COMPUTER
MODELS...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS.
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...
THE STATIONARY AND MASSIVE ANOMALOUS LONG WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE FOR
THE AREA. STRONGLY CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THIS AND AN
ACTIVE NORTH PACIFIC JET IS DRIVING THE POLAR JET STREAM
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST WITH VIGOR. THIS 120-150 KT
NORTHWESTERLY JET AXIS HAS MULTIPLE SHEARED SHORT WAVE IMPULSES
RIDING ALONG IT AND FRONTOGENETICALLY INFLUENCING AN ALREADY TIGHT
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS WILL BE THE PLAYER FOR SOME RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES TODAY...INCLUDING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A DEPARTING WAVE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL IL AT 3 AM...AND ONE IMPULSE OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. WHILE THE FIRST WAVE WILL HAVE MUCH BETTER COVERAGE
OF RAIN...IT WILL BE EXITING BY 9-10 AM OR SO. THE SECOND WAVE
WILL DROP OVER THE AREA DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THIS IS
FAIRLY MOISTURE-STARVED AND ITS ZONE OF FORCING IS NARROW...SO
ONLY HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THIS MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST IL AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR
TONIGHT AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS WAVE AIDING IN A BREEZY
WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD REALIZE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE WITH MID 60S COVERING A LARGE PART OF THE
AREA ESPECIALLY IF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE OCCUR WHICH ARE EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES DUE TO WEAK COOL AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED JET AXIS ROUNDS THE UPPER TROUGH...THE LOW
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PULL AWAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THAT JET ALONG WITH A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA IN THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM/FORCING
WILL POTENTIALLY INTERACT WITH A TIGHTENING OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND POSSIBLY SOME MOISTURE FROM
EASTERN PACIFIC LANDFALLING TROPICAL STORM SIMON. EITHER WAY...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE REGION WILL BE UNDER SOME SUPPORT FOR RAIN. THE
CHALLENGE IS HOW FAR NORTH RAIN WILL REACH AS A DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR
MASS WILL BE OVER THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH.
DPROG/DT IN GUIDANCE INDICATES A GENERAL TREND OVER SEVERAL RUNS
TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WHICH COULD MEAN NORTH OF I-80 WILL
NOT SEE ANYTHING...AND MAYBE IN TIME A LARGER PART OF THE AREA.
FOR NOW HAVE TIGHTENED UP THE GRADIENT IN FORECAST POPS ALONG WITH
HAVING SHIFTED SOUTH SOME.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ENVELOP THE REGION FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THIS IS WELL
AGREED UPON ON GUIDANCE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH LAKE INDUCED
CLOUD COVER THERE IS INTO THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH AT LEAST
SCATTERED CLOUDS APPEAR PROBABLE BASED ON ADAPTED GFS AND EC
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A LIKELY COOL NIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND HAVE ADDED PATCHY FROST IN
NORTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST IL WHERE WIND FLOW LOOKS
LIGHTEST. GUIDANCE IS IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER LONG WAVE
TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PERIOD OVER THE
ROCKIES TO CENTRAL U.S...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH LOW-
LEVEL MASS FIELDS AND JUST GENERAL EVOLUTION ARE EVIDENT IN THIS
TIME. HAVE USED A WELL-VERIFYING BLEND OF GRIDDED MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE TIME BEING.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
RC
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
WINDS ARE VEERING WESTERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL TROUGH AND WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET AS SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS DRAPED JUST TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WEST
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN MID TEENS
AND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE TAF CYCLE AFTER CURRENT POCKET OF HIGH MVFR CIGS IN GYY AREA
SHIFTS EAST. BACK EDGE OF SHOWER/SPRINKLE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IS OVER EASTERN IA...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
VCSH MENTION FOR NEXT FEW HOURS.
RC
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH.
RC
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
THURSDAY...SLT CHC RAIN.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CHC SHRA.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
240 AM CDT
WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK. TODAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT WILL TURN
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE LAKE. DEEP MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 30 KT. MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO TAPER FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST OF THE LAKE.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1232 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1049 AM CDT
FOR MORNING UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO SHOWER COVERAGE/AREAS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA AT TIMES INTO EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...THEN DRYING FROM THE
WEST. HAVE ALSO INDICATED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FROM ABOUT NOON THROUGH 4-5 PM.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT 15Z...ROUGHLY ALONG A MILWAUKEE-PERU-GALESBURG
LINE AT THIS TIME. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WAS GENERALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT JUST
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. WHILE HEAVIER MORNING SHOWERS WERE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA...ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS
NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM IOWA INTO
NORTHERN IL. SCATTERED LIGHTER SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF
THE MID-LEVEL VORT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL...HOWEVER HIGH-RES MODEL
RUNS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
AND DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION. THUS WHILE A SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...IT
APPEARS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WILL A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS. SPC
RAP-MESOANALYSIS GRAPHICS SHOW SOME WEAK MUCAPE AROUND 100 J/KG
THERE NOW...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE RAP AND THE 12Z
NAM SUPPORT MLCAPES IN THE 500-700 J/KG DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF A
PONTIAC TO VALPARAISO LINE THIS AFTERNOON. GREATER COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY END UP BEING JUST OFF TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...RAIN THREAT SHOULD END FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RATZER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
316 AM CDT
THIS WEEK LOOKS TO BE FREE OF ANY HIGH IMPACT WEATHER FOR THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SOME SMALLER CONCERNS OF SHOWERS TODAY...HOW
FAR NORTH RAIN REACHES THURSDAY...AND POTENTIALLY FROST OR FREEZE
FRIDAY NIGHT. EARLY NEXT WEEK A POSSIBLY AMPLIFYING TROUGH MAY
BRING ACTIVE AND/OR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY BUT WITH IT BEING A WEEK OUT AND GIVEN THE ALREADY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WE ARE IN MAKING IT CHALLENGING ON COMPUTER
MODELS...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS.
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...
THE STATIONARY AND MASSIVE ANOMALOUS LONG WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE FOR
THE AREA. STRONGLY CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THIS AND AN
ACTIVE NORTH PACIFIC JET IS DRIVING THE POLAR JET STREAM
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST WITH VIGOR. THIS 120-150 KT
NORTHWESTERLY JET AXIS HAS MULTIPLE SHEARED SHORT WAVE IMPULSES
RIDING ALONG IT AND FRONTOGENETICALLY INFLUENCING AN ALREADY TIGHT
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS WILL BE THE PLAYER FOR SOME RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES TODAY...INCLUDING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A DEPARTING WAVE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL IL AT 3 AM...AND ONE IMPULSE OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. WHILE THE FIRST WAVE WILL HAVE MUCH BETTER COVERAGE
OF RAIN...IT WILL BE EXITING BY 9-10 AM OR SO. THE SECOND WAVE
WILL DROP OVER THE AREA DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THIS IS
FAIRLY MOISTURE-STARVED AND ITS ZONE OF FORCING IS NARROW...SO
ONLY HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THIS MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST IL AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR
TONIGHT AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS WAVE AIDING IN A BREEZY
WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD REALIZE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE WITH MID 60S COVERING A LARGE PART OF THE
AREA ESPECIALLY IF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE OCCUR WHICH ARE EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES DUE TO WEAK COOL AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED JET AXIS ROUNDS THE UPPER TROUGH...THE LOW
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PULL AWAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THAT JET ALONG WITH A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA IN THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM/FORCING
WILL POTENTIALLY INTERACT WITH A TIGHTENING OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND POSSIBLY SOME MOISTURE FROM
EASTERN PACIFIC LANDFALLING TROPICAL STORM SIMON. EITHER WAY...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE REGION WILL BE UNDER SOME SUPPORT FOR RAIN. THE
CHALLENGE IS HOW FAR NORTH RAIN WILL REACH AS A DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR
MASS WILL BE OVER THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH.
DPROG/DT IN GUIDANCE INDICATES A GENERAL TREND OVER SEVERAL RUNS
TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WHICH COULD MEAN NORTH OF I-80 WILL
NOT SEE ANYTHING...AND MAYBE IN TIME A LARGER PART OF THE AREA.
FOR NOW HAVE TIGHTENED UP THE GRADIENT IN FORECAST POPS ALONG WITH
HAVING SHIFTED SOUTH SOME.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ENVELOP THE REGION FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THIS IS WELL
AGREED UPON ON GUIDANCE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH LAKE INDUCED
CLOUD COVER THERE IS INTO THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH AT LEAST
SCATTERED CLOUDS APPEAR PROBABLE BASED ON ADAPTED GFS AND EC
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A LIKELY COOL NIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND HAVE ADDED PATCHY FROST IN
NORTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST IL WHERE WIND FLOW LOOKS
LIGHTEST. GUIDANCE IS IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER LONG WAVE
TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PERIOD OVER THE
ROCKIES TO CENTRAL U.S...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH LOW-
LEVEL MASS FIELDS AND JUST GENERAL EVOLUTION ARE EVIDENT IN THIS
TIME. HAVE USED A WELL-VERIFYING BLEND OF GRIDDED MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE TIME BEING.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
* GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
RC
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
WINDS ARE VEERING WESTERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL TROUGH AND WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET AS SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS DRAPED JUST TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WEST
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN MID TEENS
AND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE TAF CYCLE AFTER CURRENT POCKET OF HIGH MVFR CIGS IN GYY AREA
SHIFTS EAST. BACK EDGE OF SHOWER/SPRINKLE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IS OVER EASTERN IA...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
VCSH MENTION FOR NEXT FEW HOURS.
RC
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH.
RC
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
THURSDAY...SLT CHC RAIN.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CHC SHRA.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
240 AM CDT
WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK. TODAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT WILL TURN
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE LAKE. DEEP MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 30 KT. MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO TAPER FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST OF THE LAKE.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM
WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1230 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1049 AM CDT
FOR MORNING UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO SHOWER COVERAGE/AREAS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA AT TIMES INTO EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...THEN DRYING FROM THE
WEST. HAVE ALSO INDICATED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FROM ABOUT NOON THROUGH 4-5 PM.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT 15Z...ROUGHLY ALONG A MILWAUKEE-PERU-GALESBURG
LINE AT THIS TIME. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WAS GENERALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT JUST
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. WHILE HEAVIER MORNING SHOWERS WERE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA...ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS
NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM IOWA INTO
NORTHERN IL. SCATTERED LIGHTER SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF
THE MID-LEVEL VORT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL...HOWEVER HIGH-RES MODEL
RUNS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
AND DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION. THUS WHILE A SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...IT
APPEARS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WILL A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS. SPC
RAP-MESOANALYSIS GRAPHICS SHOW SOME WEAK MUCAPE AROUND 100 J/KG
THERE NOW...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE RAP AND THE 12Z
NAM SUPPORT MLCAPES IN THE 500-700 J/KG DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF A
PONTIAC TO VALPARAISO LINE THIS AFTERNOON. GREATER COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY END UP BEING JUST OFF TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...RAIN THREAT SHOULD END FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RATZER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
316 AM CDT
THIS WEEK LOOKS TO BE FREE OF ANY HIGH IMPACT WEATHER FOR THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SOME SMALLER CONCERNS OF SHOWERS TODAY...HOW
FAR NORTH RAIN REACHES THURSDAY...AND POTENTIALLY FROST OR FREEZE
FRIDAY NIGHT. EARLY NEXT WEEK A POSSIBLY AMPLIFYING TROUGH MAY
BRING ACTIVE AND/OR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY BUT WITH IT BEING A WEEK OUT AND GIVEN THE ALREADY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WE ARE IN MAKING IT CHALLENGING ON COMPUTER
MODELS...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS.
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...
THE STATIONARY AND MASSIVE ANOMALOUS LONG WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE FOR
THE AREA. STRONGLY CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THIS AND AN
ACTIVE NORTH PACIFIC JET IS DRIVING THE POLAR JET STREAM
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST WITH VIGOR. THIS 120-150 KT
NORTHWESTERLY JET AXIS HAS MULTIPLE SHEARED SHORT WAVE IMPULSES
RIDING ALONG IT AND FRONTOGENETICALLY INFLUENCING AN ALREADY TIGHT
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS WILL BE THE PLAYER FOR SOME RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES TODAY...INCLUDING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A DEPARTING WAVE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL IL AT 3 AM...AND ONE IMPULSE OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. WHILE THE FIRST WAVE WILL HAVE MUCH BETTER COVERAGE
OF RAIN...IT WILL BE EXITING BY 9-10 AM OR SO. THE SECOND WAVE
WILL DROP OVER THE AREA DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THIS IS
FAIRLY MOISTURE-STARVED AND ITS ZONE OF FORCING IS NARROW...SO
ONLY HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THIS MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST IL AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR
TONIGHT AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS WAVE AIDING IN A BREEZY
WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD REALIZE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE WITH MID 60S COVERING A LARGE PART OF THE
AREA ESPECIALLY IF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE OCCUR WHICH ARE EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES DUE TO WEAK COOL AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED JET AXIS ROUNDS THE UPPER TROUGH...THE LOW
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PULL AWAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THAT JET ALONG WITH A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA IN THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM/FORCING
WILL POTENTIALLY INTERACT WITH A TIGHTENING OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND POSSIBLY SOME MOISTURE FROM
EASTERN PACIFIC LANDFALLING TROPICAL STORM SIMON. EITHER WAY...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE REGION WILL BE UNDER SOME SUPPORT FOR RAIN. THE
CHALLENGE IS HOW FAR NORTH RAIN WILL REACH AS A DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR
MASS WILL BE OVER THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH.
DPROG/DT IN GUIDANCE INDICATES A GENERAL TREND OVER SEVERAL RUNS
TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WHICH COULD MEAN NORTH OF I-80 WILL
NOT SEE ANYTHING...AND MAYBE IN TIME A LARGER PART OF THE AREA.
FOR NOW HAVE TIGHTENED UP THE GRADIENT IN FORECAST POPS ALONG WITH
HAVING SHIFTED SOUTH SOME.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ENVELOP THE REGION FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THIS IS WELL
AGREED UPON ON GUIDANCE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH LAKE INDUCED
CLOUD COVER THERE IS INTO THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH AT LEAST
SCATTERED CLOUDS APPEAR PROBABLE BASED ON ADAPTED GFS AND EC
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A LIKELY COOL NIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND HAVE ADDED PATCHY FROST IN
NORTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST IL WHERE WIND FLOW LOOKS
LIGHTEST. GUIDANCE IS IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER LONG WAVE
TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PERIOD OVER THE
ROCKIES TO CENTRAL U.S...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH LOW-
LEVEL MASS FIELDS AND JUST GENERAL EVOLUTION ARE EVIDENT IN THIS
TIME. HAVE USED A WELL-VERIFYING BLEND OF GRIDDED MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE TIME BEING.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
* GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
RC
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
WINDS ARE VEERING WESTERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL TROUGH AND WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET AS SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS DRAPED JUST TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WEST
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN MID TEENS
AND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE TAF CYCLE AFTER CURRENT POCKET OF HIGH MVFR CIGS IN GYY AREA
SHIFTS EAST.
RC
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH.
RC
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
THURSDAY...SLT CHC RAIN.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CHC SHRA.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
240 AM CDT
WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK. TODAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT WILL TURN
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE LAKE. DEEP MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 30 KT. MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO TAPER FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST OF THE LAKE.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM
WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
435 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO EXTEND THE TORNADO WATCH A COUPLE OF COUNTIES
SOUTH. THIS WAS MAINLY TO DEAL WITH THE DEVELOPING LINEAR CELLS JUST
OUTSIDE OF ROCKCASTLE COUNTY. THE WCN HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG WITH
UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES. HWO TO FOLLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA. THE WIND FIELD AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH A MID LEVEL SPEED
MAX MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SURGE OF
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION...HAS RESULTED IN A THREAT FOR
SUPERCELLS AND THEIR SEVERE WEATHER ATTRIBUTES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA...WHERE A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT. ON
RADAR...A VERY STRONG/SEVERE CLUSTER OF STORMS IS NOW TRACKING
THROUGH THE WATCH AREA TOWARD EAST KENTUCKY AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
JKL CWA BETWEEN 4:30 AND 6 PM...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER THIS
INITIAL BATCH OF STORMS PASS. A CLEARING OF THE LOWER CLOUDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE EARLIER SHOWERS AND STORMS IS BRINGING TEMPERATURES UP
INTO THE 60S AND 70S THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
10 TO 20 KTS AND GUSTS TO 25 KTS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE LARGE AND DEEP UPPER
LOW SPINNING NORTH OF THE MIDWEST AND ITS ATTENDANT ENERGY PACKET
RACING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. THIS NODE OF
THE UPPER LOW THEN LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR DECENT HEIGHT
RISES IN ITS WAKE. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE A VIRTUAL MATCH WITH THEIR
FLATTENING OF THE PATTERN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. LATER THAT NIGHT
AN OPENING TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNER/S REGION WILL SEND MORE ENERGY
THIS WAY IN THE FAST FLOW LEADING RIGHT INTO KENTUCKY. FOR THE MOST
PART...USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR AND
NAM12 FOR THE NEAR TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A STORMY EVENING FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AREA INTO THE
EVENING. THE STORMS WILL MOVE OFF BY LATE EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ON TAP. FOR WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE US ONE SOLID DAY OF DRY WEATHER WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HOWEVER...THE FRONT THAT PUSHES OFF TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT WILL START TO COME BACK AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BY DAWN IN BOTH THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA AND ALSO ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER.
USED THE CONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 18-24 HOURS BEFORE GOING WITH THE SUPERBLEND
THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR TERRAIN EFFECTS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED
UP MORE SIMILAR TO THE WETTER MET NUMBERS TONIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH THE BROAD
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CANADIAN MARITIMES AND SLOWLY
SHIFTING EAST. MEANWHILE DURING THIS TIME...A RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS WITH A CLOSED LOW BEING THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM SIMON MOVING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. BY THE WEEKEND...A STRONG JET STREAK DIVES OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A TROUGH DEEPENS
FURTHER WITH THE REMNANTS OF SIMON MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS HAVE SEEM TO
COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AS WELL AS THE SUPER BLEND
MODEL...AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SUPER BLEND GAVE A
CONSENSUS OF LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO KEPT THIS SOLUTION
IN THE FORECAST.
FOR DETAILS IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AN EXITING FRONT BECOMES STALLED
AND ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ALONG THE TN VALLEY AND INTO KY DURING THE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD DUE TO STRONG RIDGING ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THIS SETS UP A SCENARIO WHERE NUMEROUS WAVES MOVE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY PROVIDING RAIN CHANCES EVERYDAY DURING THE EXTENDED. THIS
BEING A MORE SPRING LIKE PATTERN OCCURRING THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
VEGETATION ON THE DECLINE COULD MAKE FOR A CONCERN FOR FLOODING IN
THE EXTENDED. WITH THE REMNANTS OF SIMON...THE INFLUX OF GULF
MOISTURE AND AN ACTIVE JET FOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THE INGREDIENTS
MAY BE AVAILABLE FOR THIS EVENT. A FEW DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE
IRONED OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE MODELS HANDLING A TRANSITION IN THE
PATTERN BUT THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
CLEARING OF THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. A FEW OF THESE COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTH OF
THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. HAVE TIMED THE STORMS THROUGH THE TAF SITES
BY 23/00Z. WITH THESE...IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON WITH
BRIEF TIMES OF VLIFR ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 KTS...THOUGH
THEY WILL BE SUSTAINED FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.
OTHERWISE...THE CIGS WILL START TO CLEAR UP AFTER 03Z WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND WINDS SWITCHING TO THE WEST AT 5
TO 10 KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
350 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA. THE WIND FIELD AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH A MID LEVEL SPEED
MAX MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SURGE OF
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION...HAS RESULTED IN A THREAT FOR
SUPERCELLS AND THEIR SEVERE WEATHER ATTRIBUTES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA...WHERE A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT. ON
RADAR...A VERY STRONG/SEVERE CLUSTER OF STORMS IS NOW TRACKING
THROUGH THE WATCH AREA TOWARD EAST KENTUCKY AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
JKL CWA BETWEEN 4:30 AND 6 PM...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER THIS
INITIAL BATCH OF STORMS PASS. A CLEARING OF THE LOWER CLOUDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE EARLIER SHOWERS AND STORMS IS BRINGING TEMPERATURES UP
INTO THE 60S AND 70S THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
10 TO 20 KTS AND GUSTS TO 25 KTS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE LARGE AND DEEP UPPER
LOW SPINNING NORTH OF THE MIDWEST AND ITS ATTENDANT ENERGY PACKET
RACING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. THIS NODE OF
THE UPPER LOW THEN LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR DECENT HEIGHT
RISES IN ITS WAKE. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE A VIRTUAL MATCH WITH THEIR
FLATTENING OF THE PATTERN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. LATER THAT NIGHT
AN OPENING TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNER/S REGION WILL SEND MORE ENERGY
THIS WAY IN THE FAST FLOW LEADING RIGHT INTO KENTUCKY. FOR THE MOST
PART...USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR AND
NAM12 FOR THE NEAR TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A STORMY EVENING FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AREA INTO THE
EVENING. THE STORMS WILL MOVE OFF BY LATE EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ON TAP. FOR WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE US ONE SOLID DAY OF DRY WEATHER WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HOWEVER...THE FRONT THAT PUSHES OFF TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT WILL START TO COME BACK AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BY DAWN IN BOTH THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA AND ALSO ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER.
USED THE CONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 18-24 HOURS BEFORE GOING WITH THE SUPERBLEND
THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR TERRAIN EFFECTS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED
UP MORE SIMILAR TO THE WETTER MET NUMBERS TONIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH THE BROAD
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CANADIAN MARITIMES AND SLOWLY
SHIFTING EAST. MEANWHILE DURING THIS TIME...A RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS WITH A CLOSED LOW BEING THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM SIMON MOVING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. BY THE WEEKEND...A STRONG JET STREAK DIVES OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A TROUGH DEEPENS
FURTHER WITH THE REMNANTS OF SIMON MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS HAVE SEEM TO
COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AS WELL AS THE SUPER BLEND
MODEL...AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SUPER BLEND GAVE A
CONSENSUS OF LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO KEPT THIS SOLUTION
IN THE FORECAST.
FOR DETAILS IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AN EXITING FRONT BECOMES STALLED
AND ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ALONG THE TN VALLEY AND INTO KY DURING THE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD DUE TO STRONG RIDGING ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THIS SETS UP A SCENARIO WHERE NUMEROUS WAVES MOVE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY PROVIDING RAIN CHANCES EVERYDAY DURING THE EXTENDED. THIS
BEING A MORE SPRING LIKE PATTERN OCCURRING THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
VEGETATION ON THE DECLINE COULD MAKE FOR A CONCERN FOR FLOODING IN
THE EXTENDED. WITH THE REMNANTS OF SIMON...THE INFLUX OF GULF
MOISTURE AND AN ACTIVE JET FOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THE INGREDIENTS
MAY BE AVAILABLE FOR THIS EVENT. A FEW DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE
IRONED OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE MODELS HANDLING A TRANSITION IN THE
PATTERN BUT THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
CLEARING OF THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. A FEW OF THESE COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTH OF
THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. HAVE TIMED THE STORMS THROUGH THE TAF SITES
BY 23/00Z. WITH THESE...IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON WITH
BRIEF TIMES OF VLIFR ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 KTS...THOUGH
THEY WILL BE SUSTAINED FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.
OTHERWISE...THE CIGS WILL START TO CLEAR UP AFTER 03Z WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND WINDS SWITCHING TO THE WEST AT 5
TO 10 KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
138 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014
Morning convection has waned as the main cells have departed to
the east. There is still a slgt chance of a perturbation upstream
rotating down/across the FA and touching a storm off this pm, but
the HRRR suggests this is increasingly unlikely. Will maintain a
20 pop mention thru diurnal heating hours.
Drier air works down the column for our mid week and spells the
end of such as a frontal boundary drapes from the Plains across
the Mississippi and Ohio valleys sometime later in the week. This
sets the stage for an extended wet period that begins perhaps as
early as Wed night and continues thru the remainder of the short
term, into/thru the long term portion of the forecast.
.LONG TERM.../Friday through Tuesday/
Issued at 138 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2014
High confidence in a very wet extended forecast. Medium confidence
in the exact timing of the several rounds of rain events.
By Thursday into Friday a front will be stalled over the area
bringing rain to the region. This will combine with remnants of TS
Simon which should make landfall today. This will establish a
tropical connection to the southwest Pacific often referred to as a
monsoonal flow out west. This additional moisture will likely set
the stage for some flooding this weekend as the front meanders over
the heartland and especially early next week when yet another
stronger system will be bearing down on the area. This later system
could produce strong or even severe storms with very efficient/heavy
rain. At this time the models are not too aggressive with
instability but that is a little too far out to rule it out. Between
days 4 through 8 Friday through Wednesday morning we could see
between 3 to 5 inches for a storm total. The limiting factor will be
how much instability the atmosphere can muster.
Temperatures will go below normal Friday through Saturday then near
normal Sunday before falling back below by mid week next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014
MVFR cigs are still possible this pm but will be scattering out
toward the end of the day, leaving clear skies or just some
scattered mid to high clouds for the overnight. Gusty swlys will
shift to w-nwlys before diminishing.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
220 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
WITH A TORNADO WATCH BOX COMING HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADDRESS
THIS THREAT AND BETTER TIME THE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING. CLEARING IS
NOW PUSHING INTO WESTERN PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO SPIKE INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS
HEADING TO THE LOWER 60S. THE STORM THREAT LOOKS TO BE HIGHEST ALONG
THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED WITH THIS IN MIND
ALONG WITH ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY T AND TD GRIDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON PER THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND CONSSHORT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS
APPROACHING THE STATE FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST
KENTUCKY ARE STILL IN THE 50S FOR MOST SPOTS...BUT SOME LOWER 60S ARE
FOUND IN THE FAR SOUTH. HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY
SETTING THE STAGE...WHEN COMBINED WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL SPEED MAX...
FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS. A SPIN UP
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE WIND PROFILE AND POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASED INSTABILITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
STORMS WILL HAVE TO GET A BIT TALLER TODAY THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY
TO PRODUCE SIMILAR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS GIVEN HIGHER FREEZING LEVELS.
IN THE MEANTIME...A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CROSSING THE NORTHERN PARTS OF AREA WITH A CLUSTER MOVING EAST ALONG
THE TENNESSEE BORDER BRUSHING THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. WINDS ACROSS
EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE BREEZY TODAY FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO TIME THE
PCPN THIS AFTERNOON PER THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE. ALSO FINE
TUNED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BASED ON THE
LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THE UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. SENT OUT A BEEFED UP HWO EARLIER
THIS MORNING FOR THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. AN
UPDATED ZFP WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 739 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
UPDATED THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT TO REMOVE THE PRE FIRST PERIOD
THAT WAS INCLUDED WITH THE 4 AM FORECAST PACKAGE. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
NEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TAKING PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. NONE OF THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE
REALLY BEEN PICKING UP ON THIS ACTIVITY...SO THE FORECAST GRIDS
THROUGH 12Z TODAY WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS IN RADAR
IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE REGION. THE FORECAST FROM
12Z TODAY THROUGH 0Z THURSDAY WAS HANDLED BEST BY A COMBINATION OF
THE HRRR MODEL AND A MODIFIED VERSION OF THE LATEST CONSALL RUN.
AFTER THE CURRENT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FINALLY MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE
ACTION THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. AFTER THAT...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FIRE QUICKLY...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE
BASED OF A MUCH LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT. CURRENT OBS
ARE ALSO SUGGESTING THE PRESENCE OF SOME SORT OF WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ALSO
PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FORCING MECHANISM FOR SHOWER AND STORM
FORMATION LATER THIS MORNING. THAT ALL BEING SAID...THE MOST ACTIVE
PART OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. THE MOST INTENSE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
DURING PEAK HEATING AND WHILE A 40 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM.
SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTING WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR TODAY.
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PROBABLY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE SHIFTING OF WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OFF TO OUR EAST. HIGHS TODAY AND
TOMORROW SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 70 WITH TONIGHT/S LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUES TO LOOK IN THE OFFING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY AS A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GET HUNG UP ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT AND INDIVIDUAL BOUTS OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF MORE DUE TO ITS BETTER CONTINUITY
COMPARED TO THAT OF THE GFS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH
OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS BRINGING A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE
AS DEEPER TROUGHING BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A
FINAL COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA...POSSIBLY AS
LATE AS NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
CLEARING OF THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. A FEW OF THESE COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTH OF
THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. HAVE TIMED THE STORMS THROUGH THE TAF SITES
BY 23/00Z. WITH THESE...IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON WITH
BRIEF TIMES OF VLIFR ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 KTS...THOUGH
THEY WILL BE SUSTAINED FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.
OTHERWISE...THE CIGS WILL START TO CLEAR UP AFTER 03Z WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND WINDS SWITCHING TO THE WEST AT 5
TO 10 KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1251 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014
Morning convection has waned as the main cells have departed to
the east. There is still a slgt chance of a perturbation upstream
rotating down/across the FA and touching a storm off this pm, but
the HRRR suggests this is increasingly unlikely. Will maintain a
20 pop mention thru diurnal heating hours.
Drier air works down the column for our mid week and spells the
end of such as a frontal boundary drapes from the Plains across
the Mississippi and Ohio valleys sometime later in the week. This
sets the stage for an extended wet period that begins perhaps as
early as Wed night and continues thru the remainder of the short
term, into/thru the long term portion of the forecast.
.LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2014
The extended forecast continues to appear quite wet as a west-to-
east sfc frontal boundary will be in the general vicinity of the PAH
forecast area initially. The ECMWF and its ensemble mean was favored
by WPC for this forecast package, and this was generally followed,
especially late in the weekend and early next week, when it has a
much more amplified pattern across the CONUS than the GFS/GEM.
While the mid level flow over our region will be quasizonal through
the first half of the weekend, the nrn stream pattern should have
periodic impulses of shrtwv energy moving through, generating
intervals of rainfall, with little instability available for tstm
development. However, copious tropical Pacific moisture should allow
the possibility of heavy rainfall rates.
If the ECMWF forecast pans out, the aforementioned frontal boundary
will be shoved nwd as a warm front late Sunday and Sunday night,
followed by a deepening wave of low sfc pressure moving into the mid
MS river valley. The strength of this amplification is uncertain at
this time, but coverage of tstms will probably increase by Sunday.
Heavy rainfall rates are possible, and shear parameters suggest that
a few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out.
Based on this forecast, there should be a warm-up to above-average
temps by Day 7.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014
MVFR cigs are still possible this pm but will be scattering out
toward the end of the day, leaving clear skies or just some
scattered mid to high clouds for the overnight. Gusty swlys will
shift to w-nwlys before diminishing.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
123 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1058 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2014
Have updated the forecast to reflect the latest trends. Showers
continue to dissipate over central Kentucky, as warm-air advection
convection has been confined further to the south in TN. However,
strong thunderstorms have pushed into southern Indiana. These will
continue to push through, likely maintaining at least some strength
as they head into the region.
The main severe threat will be later on this afternoon, and the
threat continues to remain conditional at this time. It will all
hinge on just how much instability can be realized along a weak
front/wind shift pushing through this afternoon, and if
surface-based convection will fire along it. In addition, mid-level
height rises may tend to hinder updraft strength. Nonetheless, the
latest HRRR continues to suggest that scattered storms, potentially
supercells, will develop across central KY this afternoon. Large
hail will be the main threat, but damaging winds and even an
isolated tornado or two will be possible. Low-level shear is a bit
more impressive today than it was on Monday, so do think there is a
conditional tornado threat today if surface-based storms can
develop.
Issued at 710 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2014
Adjusted POPs to delay the next round of convection by a few hours.
A complex of showers with embedded thunder was headed east from
Illinois with a few stronger cells popping up in our area as of
7am. The latest HRRR indicates we`ll continue to see these stronger
cells form out ahead of the main line and those will be the ones to
watch as far as any immediate threat for strong to severe storms.
Also of note, the HRRR has the line strengthen toward mid to late
morning as it moves through the region.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2014
...Strong Storms Possible Today...
Early this morning convection has already begun to get going again
on arrival of an upper level shortwave from the south. Numerous
storms were popping up from Morgantown to Stanford early this
morning. The cells likely contain some small hail in addition to
heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Will continue to monitor
these storms closely as they grow upscale but overall not expecting
them to reach severe limits due to lack of instability currently.
This early morning wave of convection will be the first of
potentially three waves. This first wave looks to push through the
region during the pre-dawn hours. We should see a break in precip
around sunrise or shortly after before another wave of convection
arrives by mid to late morning courtesy of a potent shortwave diving
SE across MO/IL early this morning. Convection with this wave has
the potential to be strong to severe as a 50-60 kt h7 jet dives into
the area along with the nose of a potent upper level jet. Although
wind fields are impressive, available instability remains a big
question mark for today. The NAM and GFS seem to be quite generous
with instability which may work out like yesterday. However,
yesterday we were more aligned with the base axis of the upper
trough which seemed to be pretty efficient in clearing clouds after
rounds of convection possibly due to unidirectional wind fields
throughout the column. Today we`ll enter the western side of the
trough and upper level winds will become more NW which may result in
more clouds overall as clouds from convection upstream get blown
into our region. This is already the apparent trend looking at
satellite imagery early this morning. If we`re cloudy for most of
the day, think that storms will be limited in strength probably
remaining below severe limits. However, it should be noted, that if
we can some how get some clearing and instability that is advertised
by the NAM/GFS is realized, we could be in for a similar setup as
far as severe weather as we were yesterday with large hail, damaging
winds, and an isld tornado possible. The best time period for
strong to potentially severe storms with wave #2 is from mid morning
through mid afternoon.
Finally a third round of convection is progged by some of the short
range models during the evening hours over the Bluegrass and perhaps
south central KY as short range models indicate redevelopment
possible on boundaries left over by convection earlier in the day.
Again depending on how much instability is left and where those
boundaries lay out, the potential for strong to marginally severe
storms exists. Keep an eye on forecast updates throughout the day
in case storms do end up being on the stronger side.
Outside of any storm today, expect gusty southwest winds with gusts
in the 20-30 mph range common. High temperatures should reach the
upper 60s and lower 70s.
Tonight convection will clear the area as the upper trough and cold
front move east of the region. Low temps tonight will fall into the
upper 40s and lower 50s with some light fog possible.
Wednesday will be dry and sunny with highs in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2014
...A wet week expected beginning as early as late Thursday and
continuing into the weekend...
Late Wednesday, the upper air pattern will feature split flow across
the Rockies, with ridging across Idaho north of a 500mb trough
associated with the southern stream of the jet forecast over
Arizona. Both branches of the jet will come together over the plains
within a confluent low well south of a retreating deep low over
Hudson`s Bay.
Initially, dry air will reside over the Commonwealth within a light
wind regime. However, towards late Thursday, Gulf moisture, along
with moisture from the remains of former eastern Pacific hurricane
Simon, will push north across the southern Plains and the Lower
Mississippi Valley. By late Thursday, a frontal boundary will
develop eastwards of weak low pressure forecast to develop near the
Texas Panhandle. It will extend eastwards and lie somewhere over or
near the Commonwealth. This boundary, parallel to the mid and upper
level winds, will move little over several days and will become the
focus of several episodes of showers through at least Saturday.
Wednesday night will stay mostly clear with light winds and lows
ranging from near 50 to the lower 50s. Mid and upper level moisture
will begin to stream in from the west by mid to late Thursday, with
a change of rain developing by late Thursday or early Friday. Highs
Thursday will reach the lower 70s.
Various models vary on the exact placement of a nearly stationary
front from Late Thursday through Saturday. The latest NAM has this
boundary near Interstate 64 around dawn Friday; the GFS has it
around 75 miles farther north. Feel that moisture advection and
isentropic lift will bring rather widespread rains along and north
of this surface boundary. Precipitation will likely begin late
Thursday, mostly likely along or north of Interstate 64. Showers
will then overspread the entire region Friday, possibly bring
substantial rains of an inch or more. Some guidance has this surface
boundary sagging south late Friday into early Saturday, which may
allow a slowly southwards progression of precipitation towards the
Tennessee Valley. Both the ECMWF and to a much lessor extent the GFS
develop a 500mb trough over the Lower Mississippi Valley late
Sunday. Should this verify, additional rounds of precipitation may
continue Sunday and Monday.
It won`t rain the whole time from late Thursday through Monday.
Currently rain is quite likely from late Thursday through Friday,
with more episodic showers Saturday through Monday. Despite Monday`s
storms, we are relatively dry. However some locations this weekend
may eventually receive enough rain to create some runoff
problems.
With widespread cloud cover, temperatures Friday through Monday will
be somewhat seasonal, and depend on precipitation timing and the
eventual location of this afore-mentioned stationary front.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 121 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2014
Several rounds of convection continue to plague terminals early this
afternoon. One round continues to push east and will affect KLEX
very shortly. A second round is pushing in from the northwest, and
may build back to the southwest, affecting KSDF and KLEX. KBWG
looks to be on the southern edge of the better forcing with a
building capping inversion. Will cautiously take precip out of the
KBWG TAF with this issuance, and continue to monitor. Outside of
any convection, expect VFR conditions with gusty winds around 25
knots, perhaps approaching 30 knots (especially at KBWG) at times.
Otherwise, convection will push east of all terminals tonight, as
some drier air finally works into the region. Clouds should scatter
out as winds relax overnight into Wednesday, with VFR conditions
expected.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........KJD/AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......JSD
Aviation.......KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
505 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 505 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP A COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA BY THIS WEEKEND A
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA BRINGING DRIER BUT STILL
COOL WEATHER. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY AS A SFC
TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER
MICHIGAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...
ISSUED AT 505 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS
INTO SW CANADA AND A DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS...ANCHORED
BY A DEEP MIDLEVEL LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO. A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES ARE
NOTED IN THE TROF. ONE MOVING INTO INDIANA IS GENERATING SHRA/TSRA
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SRN LAKES REGION. A WEAKER WAVE SWEEPING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR HAS SENT A WEAK SFC TROF INTO ERN UPPER MI AND
NRN LWR MI THIS AFTN. DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE MI
HAS ALLOWED SCT -SHRA TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SFC TROF THIS AFTN
ACROSS NRN MI. A COUPLE OF TSRA HAVE EVEN DEVELOPED OVER THE ERN
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.
TONIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES...
USHING IN A PUSH OF COLDER AIR. CONSENSUS OF 12Z MODELS INDICATE
850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND -4C OVER ERN UPPER MI AND TO -2 TO
-3C ACROSS NRN LWR MI. ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION IS NOTED OVER NRN LWR
MI WED AFTN. WITH INCREASING OVERWATER INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
SOME DEEP LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE...EXPECT A
PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED -SHRA TO GET UNDERWAY TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PASSES. BEST HEIGHT FALLS/DEEP LAYER FORCING IS OVER THE N...SO
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS FAR NRN LWR MI
INTO ERN UPPER MI WHERE A FEW AREAS OF LIKELY POPS WILL BE PAINTED.
SINCE WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE ONLY FCST TO DROP AS LOW AS
1500-1600FT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE -SHRA. HOWEVER...TYPICAL
FOR EARLY SEASON LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT...WOULDN`T BE TOO SURPRISED
TO SEE A LITTLE GRAUPEL MIX IN WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS
-SHRA/CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING...ESPECIALLY SINCE
-10C ISOTHERM DIPS BLO A DECENTLY HIGH INVERSION BASE AT ROUGHLY
AROUND 7-8KFT.
DURING WED...SOME LOW-MIDLEVEL DRYING WORKS INTO AT LEAST THE SW
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA...RESULTING IN ANY LINGERING SHRA ENDING
DURING THE DAY. FARTHER N...CYCLONIC FLOW...LINGERING DEEPER
MOISTURE INCLUDING ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MI INTO FAR NRN LWR MI AND
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO ERN UPPER MI WILL KEEP SCT -SHRA GOING. IN
FACT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWINGING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW TO THE N
MAY RESULT IN INCREASING -SHRA COVERAGE OR AT LEAST SOMEWHAT HEAVIER
-SHRA FOR A TIME. DEPENDING ON COVERAGE OF SHRA AND THICKNESS OF
CLOUDS...FCST HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS ERN UPPER MI AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LWR MI MIGHT BE A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC.
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ISSUED AT 505 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...UPPER LOW REMAINS CLOSE BY...BUT
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR RAIN DIMINISHES STEADILY THROUGH THIS TIME
AS DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE TAKES HOLD. HIGHER H85-H7 RH
REMAINS OVER EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...BUT FALLS OFF FARTHER SOUTH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL /900MB-800MB/ MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE THOUGH DUE TO COOL CYCLONIC FLOW /H85 TEMPS DOWN
TO -3C/ TO SOUTH OF SFC-H85 LOWS OVER WESTERN QUEBEC. PLAN TO HAVE A
LOT OF STRATUS AND STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN AND
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THURSDAY...BUT SEEMS CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL BE LOW AS LARGER SCALE FORCING IS MINIMAL. WILL HANG ON TO LOW
CHANCES OVER EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN AS THAT AREA IS CLOSER TO THE
PRIMARY UPR MICHIGAN AND SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE UP TO H7. EVEN WITH
A FAIRLY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER ON SOUNDINGS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO ALSO SEE LGT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AS LAKE/AIR DELTA T/S EXCEED 20C AND WITH
UPSLOPE WNW FLOW. COULD BE CLOSE CALL FOR RAIN/SNOW PTYPE AS TEMPS
FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WITH WBZERO HEIGHTS STAYING ABOVE 1000 FT AGL AND
SINCE THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED...WILL KEEP WITH ONLY RAIN FOR NOW.
PROBABLY THE MAIN STORY THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY WNW
WINDS. WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN UPR
MICHIGAN AND ALONG LK MICHIGAN SHORE OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN OVERALL REGIME.
GFS INDICATES IT BECOMES EVEN DRIER IN THE H85-H7 LAYER AS
SUBSIDENCE AND Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE INCREASES. ECMWF HINTS AT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH ON THE WESTERN PERIFERY OF THE EASTERN
CANADA UPPER LOW BUT IT STILL STAYS PRETTY DRY IN THE H85-H7 LAYER.
LOW-LEVEL WINDS MAINLY STAY WNW BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN...FLOW BECOMES LESS UNIFORM BY
LATER FRIDAY AND MORE SO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENT THAT A LOT OF
CLOUDS WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY
DAYTIME HEATING.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD FINALLY WIN OUT BY
THIS WEEKEND...BUT IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THERE
ARE INDICATIONS ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS ACROSS
INTO SATURDAY. MINIMAL CHANGE IN H85 TEMPS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY RESULTS IN ONLY A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND FOR MAX TEMPS BY
SATURDAY. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT HIGHS STAYING BLO NORMAL WITH MID-UPR
40S OVER EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN AND FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN AND MAYBE REACHING LOWER 50S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
LOWER MICHIGAN. TEMPS COULD BE QUITE COOL SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGE
AXIS OVERHEAD. INTERIOR AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER MAY FALL BLO
FREEZING.
REST OF EXTENDED...AFTER BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT ANOTHER
TROUGH ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES RIDING OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGHING WILL MEET UP WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OR EVEN
MONDAY. BEST FOCUS FOR RAIN WILL BE OUT AHEAD OF H85-H7 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AFTER THIS MOVES THROUGH BY LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT A LULL MOVES ACROSS LATER MONDAY. BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH...STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET WILL COMBINE TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN
SPREADING FM CNTRL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES...INCLUDING MUCH OF LOWER MICHIGAN...ALONG SHARP FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE EXTENDED MODELS AND TRENDS FM THOSE
MODELS INDICATE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID-UPR 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
PER RADAR IMAGERY THERE MAY BE A FEW -SHRA AROUND KAPN THIS AFTN.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN AT
KMBL/KTVC/KPLN/KAPN. A DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING AT LEAST SCT -SHRA TO THE AREA. NORTHERN
TERMINALS ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE -SHRA...ESPECIALLY KTVC/KPLN DUE TO
SOME ASSISTANCE FROM LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES. ALL TERMINALS ARE ALSO
LIKELY TO SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AFTER FROPA TONIGHT. ANY
LINGERING MVFR CIGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR BY LATE WED MORNING. NW WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY TO AROUND 20KT ON WED.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 505 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL USHER IN A COOL AIRMASS WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE OVER-WATER INSTABILITY OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. WNW WINDS OVER 25 KTS BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE AT TIMES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. STRONGEST WINDS FROM SLEEPING BEAR POINT
THROUGH THE STRAITS AND EAST TOWARD PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT ESPECIALLY
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH OVERNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD DIMINISH BLO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY THURSDAY
EVENING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS OVER THE UPR GREAT LAKES.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTN LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTN
LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTN LSZ321.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JLA
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
148 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AHEAD OF A
SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
(VFR) AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z FOR ALL
TERMINALS. A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT GIVEN ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OUT
OF THE TAFS. SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA
DURING THE LATE EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO CANADA AND A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA. MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP
SOME CLOUDS AROUND OVERNIGHT NEAR MBS AND FNT...BUT WE SHOULD
OTHERWISE SEE A DRYING AND PARTIAL CLEARING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THOUGH
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE GUSTY WEST WINDS TOMORROW. GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH CEILINGS PREVAILING BELOW 5000 FEET BETWEEN
20Z AND 04Z.
* LOW CONFIDENCE WITH A THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING DTW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 400 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
IN NEARLY A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF YESTERDAY...THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
SYSTEM IS ORGANIZING OVER ILLINOIS DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED PATTERN OF SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WITH
SIMILAR LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON TIMING AND THEN LAST THROUGH
MID EVENING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT
BEST POTENTIAL IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR DURING MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR WILL THEN SPREAD OVER THE REGION ON THE
HEELS OF THE WAVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS MATCH UP NICELY WITH EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE TRENDS...BOTH OF WHICH DEPICT A 150 KT UPPER JET MAX OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A SHARP LEFT EXIT REGION OVER THE MIDWEST.
THIS JET WILL BE RUNNING THE SHOW ON THE LARGER SCALE AS IT DIGS
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND HELPS THE WAVE
AMPLIFY OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. MODEL CONSENSUS DEPICTS AN OPEN
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT STRONG DEFORMATION DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
TROUGH AXIS AROUND THE 500 MB LEVEL DURING THE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL
MOTION FORCING THAT STARTS OUT AS PURE ISENTROPIC LIFT/THETA-E
ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING WILL THEN OBTAIN A STRONG DYNAMIC BOOST
FROM THE DEFORMATION THAT WILL BEND THE THETA-E RIDGE WESTWARD OVER
SE MICHIGAN BY MID AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY
NOT BE CONTINUOUS BUT GREAT ENOUGH FOR CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE
AREA EXCEPT LIKELY FOR MIDLAND AND BAY COUNTIES. ASSUMING MAX TEMPS
REACH THE LOWER 60S...THE CONSENSUS OF THE NAM AND RAP THEN POINT TO
SURFACE BASED CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG GATHERING ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH FROM THE OHIO BORDER UP TO ABOUT THE M-59 CORRIDOR WHERE THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. USING YESTERDAY AS A
GUIDE...WITH SIMILAR LOW FREEZING LEVEL AND WIND PROFILE...THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PEA SIZE HAIL AND 40 MPH WIND
GUSTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL END BY MID EVENING BUT COULD LINGER AS LATE AS MIDNIGHT
IN THE NORTHERN THUMB BEFORE THE WAVE EXITS INTO ONTARIO. THE
DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A PROGRESSION IN THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN THAT WILL CARRY THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH TOWARD QUEBEC AND
LEAVE DEEP NW FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
NIGHT. WESTERLY SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED MAINTAIN 10 TO 20 MPH AND
BRING ENOUGH COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA TO CARRY MIN TEMPS INTO THE
LOWER 40S UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WELCOMED CHANGES ON THEIR WAY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
BROAD...STRONG AND PERSISTENT UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS
BEEN HOLDING OVER NW ONTARIO FINALLY GETS PICKED UP BY THE
NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET AND FORCED EASTWARD. THOUGH THE LOW
WILL MOVE OVER QUEBEC BY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF THE COAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING...THE FULL EFFECTS OF ITS EXIT WILL
NOT BE REALIZED TIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
STILL LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION AT THE SFC BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR AND MORE TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WE WILL STAY COOL INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STAYS JUST TO OUR SOUTH UNTIL THE
END OF THE WEEKEND WHEN RIDGING APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS AND
WARMER SW FLOW REPLACES THE COOLER NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
LARGELY REMAIN IN THE MID 50S UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN WE NEAR THE 60
MARK.
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN COOL WITH GUSTY WNW FLOW...BUT DRY AIR WORKING
INTO THE REGION WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A DRY DAY FOR
MOST LOCATIONS IN SE MI. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE SOME LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE THUMB WHICH WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE
ENHANCED RIBBON OF MOISTURE RESULTING FROM A GOOD FETCH OVER LAKES
SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN AS THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR ON ITS WAY EAST WHICH WILL
CONSTRICT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP MIXED LAYER DEVELOPING WHICH WILL BRING DOWN
WINDS APPROACHING 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL START A STRING OF NIGHTS IN WHICH TEMPS WILL
DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING STRONGER
EACH DAY AND WINDS DECOUPLING EACH NIGHT UNDER CLEAR
SKIES...FAVORABLE RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ALLOWING
THESE COOLER TEMPS. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EVEN SEE FROST IN THE MORNING
IF WE ACHIEVE THESE COOLER TEMPS. WEDNESDAY MAY HOLD CLOSER TO 40 AS
THE WINDS MAY NOT SUBSIDE FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW LONG ENOUGH DURATION
OF COOLING...BUT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD HAVE CALMER WINDS.
NO REAL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EXTENDED UNTIL LATE ON
SUNDAY WHEN THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS THROUGH THE PLAINS
AND LEAD CYCLOGENESIS SPINS UP A SFC LOW THAT LOOKS TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION INTO MONDAY.
MARINE...
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE GREAT LAKES WATERS AS THE MASSIVE
LOW STILL LINGERS OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO KEEPING A STEADY FEED OF
COLD AIR OVER THE LAKES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE LATEST ROUND OF WIND. GUSTS SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH 25 KNOTS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP THROUGH LATER TODAY. AFTER A
BRIEF LULL TONIGHT...COLD WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY
OVER THE LAKES WHILE THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR ON
WEDNESDAY TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. WINDS
LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW GALES WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF LAKE HURON. THIS WILL LIKELY
NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....HLO
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
117 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NW
ONTARIO WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO E UPPER MI
SUPPORTED SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER THE FAR ERN CWA
TOWARAD ERY. OTHERWISE...JUST MID CLOUDS PREVAILED ACROSS UPPER MI.
SOME -SHRA/SHSN OVER NW ONTARIO WERE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM
SHRTWV THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
TODAY...EXPECT THAT THE NW ONTARIO SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH
SFC HEATING AND A CONTRIBUTION OF LAKE MOISTURE WITH THE LOW LEVEL
WRLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN ISOLD/SCT -SHRA OVER MAINLY THE NORTH
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH THE STEEP SFC-700 MB
LAPSE RATES AND THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING WITH THE SHRTWV
ONLY VERY LIGHT QPF IS EXPECTED...GENRALLY LESS THAN 0.05
INCH...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS WITH AN INVERTED V TYPE
SOUNDING. TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S WEST AND LOWER
TO MID 50S OVER THE CNTRL AND EAST.
TONIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD
FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROPPPING TO NEAR -5C WITH THE PRESENCE OF
FAVORABLE 850-700 MB MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SOME NW FLOW LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT PCPN EVEN THOUGH LAKE-850 MB DELTA/T IS ONLY NEAR
14C. GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST A MIX OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
CONTINUED COOL...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
/MAINLY AWAY FROM S CENTRAL UPPER MI/...UNDER A W-NW FLOW REGIME.
COOL AIR ALOFT AND NEAR THE SFC WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE W THIRD OF THE CWA...INLAND FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR.
THE 500MB LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO AND WILL HAVE IT/S MAIN TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY. NW FLOW OVER UPPER MI WILL REMAIN...WITH THE NEXT W-E
ORIENTED TROUGH SET UP ACROSS MANITOBA AND W ONTARIO. LOOK FOR THIS
FEATURE TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE 500MB LOW SHIFTS FROM THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER AT 06Z THURSDAY TO CENTRAL QUEBEC BY 18Z
THURSDAY...AND NORTHERN ONTARIO BY FRIDAY MORNING. GFS WINDS ARE
QUITE HIGH FOR THE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...ON THE ORDER OF 10KTS HIGHER THAN THE 00Z CANADIAN/NAM AND
THE 12Z ECMWF. WILL WAIT UNTIL THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE FCSTED WINDS FOR THIS PERIOD.
TIMING ON EACH INDIVIDUAL WAVE IS UNCERTAIN...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
FINAL SHORTWAVE IN THE SERIES OVER MANITOBA AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY
WILL PUSH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH EXITS ON FRIDAY...THE LARGE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH
OF W CANADA AND THE W U.S. WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AT THE EARLIEST OVER THE W. THERE LOOKS TO BE SIGNIFICANT TIMING
ISSUES WITH THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD...SO A BLENDED SOLUTION SEEMED
REASONABLE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND LOW PRES TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ONCE AGAIN RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN ISOLD/SCT LIGHT PCPN AND VFR
CIGS/VSBY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
A SURFACE LOW ROTATING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT AND GENERALLY W TO NW WINDS
OF 15-30KTS INTO THU. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THU NIGHT INTO SAT BRINING LIGHTER
WINDS...GENRALLY 20 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
300 PM MDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...
MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT NEAR A MID LEVEL
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BE LOCATED FROM NEAR HYSHAM TO EKALAKA
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. WEAK JET DIVERGENCE AND Q VECTOR
FORCING WILL BE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES WHICH WILL GENERATE
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HRRR AND
SSEO WRF-ARW ALSO INDICATE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE EAST OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE
DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BUT A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE GFS AND EC ARE PROGGING STRONGER Q VECTOR FORCING WITH THIS
TROUGH AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING FALLING HEIGHTS
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WHICH IS
NEAR SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. RICHMOND
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
SO EXACT TIMING OF SYSTEMS REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT
IN TIME. JET STREAM THAT WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS WEEK WILL SHIFT SOUTH LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY RESULTING IN
A FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
MOVE SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE FLOW WITH THE STRONGEST LOOKING TO BE
DURING THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME
TIME...A GENERALLY STRONG WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL BE
ESTABLISHED PLAYING A DOWNSLOPE EFFECT HELPING TO INHIBIT SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MODELS THEN DIFFER QUITE A BIT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
THE ECMWF KEEPING TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE GFS HAS
MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW. AS A RESULT...DID NOT MAKE ANY BIG CHANGES
TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. OVERALL...THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
WIND. HOOLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET. THERE WILL BE A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER ALONG AND EAST OF A FORSYTH
TO BROADUS LINE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. HOOLEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047/074 046/064 044/065 047/068 046/063 044/061 044/066
10/B 00/B 21/U 01/B 12/W 21/N 11/B
LVM 044/072 040/065 039/067 043/065 039/059 038/059 039/063
10/U 11/B 11/U 01/B 22/W 21/N 11/E
HDN 043/075 044/066 042/066 045/070 043/065 042/062 041/068
11/B 00/B 21/U 01/B 22/W 21/N 11/B
MLS 042/069 041/064 041/064 046/070 044/065 042/061 041/066
21/B 11/B 21/B 11/B 11/B 21/N 11/B
4BQ 041/073 043/065 042/063 045/071 043/063 042/059 039/066
21/B 01/B 21/B 11/B 22/W 21/N 11/B
BHK 037/064 036/059 037/058 042/068 040/062 040/055 036/062
22/W 10/B 11/B 11/B 21/B 21/N 11/B
SHR 043/074 043/067 042/065 042/071 042/061 038/058 037/066
11/U 00/B 21/U 01/U 23/W 21/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
128 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ALOFT BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1053 AM EDT TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF
THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING HAS MOVED
NORTH INTO QUEBEC. HAVE OPTED TO LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. WILL STILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NORTHERN NEW YORK...
AS SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO
LATE THIS MORNING. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SOME SUNNY
BREAKS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK STATE AT THIS TIME...
SO COULD SEE SOME PARTLY SUNNY BREAKS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 906 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADD
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS OUR SLV ZONES PER CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. BTV6 APPEARS TO BE CAPTURING THIS ACTIVITY QUITE WELL SO
LEANED TOWARD ITS SOLUTION. ACTIVITY LIKELY BEING DRIVEN AT LEAST
TO SOME EXTENT BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER LAKE ONTARIO...AS
BUOYANCY/SHOWALTER PROGS ELSEWHERE BASICALLY NON- EXISTENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
IN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THIS MORNING UNDER SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITH THE FIRST OF SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS LIFTING INTO WESTERN
PA/NY. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
STREAMING OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH ANOTHER BATCH UPSTREAM
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN PA AND CENTRAL NY. LATEST HI-RES HRRR AND
RAP MODELS ARE HANDLING THE CURRENT CONDITIONS FAIRLY WELL...AND
SHOW UPSTREAM PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
SUNRISE THIS MORNING WITH A LITTLE ENHANCEMENT AS IT MOVES
NORTH...BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT. SO WHILE THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE
SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING...OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE
LOW...JUST ENOUGH TO WET THE ROADS. BY THIS AFTERNOON WE`LL SEE A
BREAK IN ACTIVITY IN- BETWEEN SHORTWAVES WITH A FEW POKES OF SUN
LIKELY RIGHT AROUND SUNSET. A RELATIVELY POTENT SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER THE REGION AS WELL SO WE`LL SEE CONTINUED
GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE THROUGH THIS MORNING...ABATING
SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND
GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 433 AM EDT TUESDAY...AFTER A BREAK BREAK IN THE ACTION...A SECOND
AND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE BTV CWA
TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A MORE ORGANIZED PERIOD OF RAIN. AS WAS THE
CASE UPSTREAM TONIGHT...A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS AN AREA OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANIES THE
ENERGY ALOFT. IN ADDITION...SOUTHERLY LOW-MID JET REDEVELOPS AGAIN
AS WELL WITH ANOTHER RELATIVELY MILD AND BREEZY NIGHT EXPECTED
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MOST.
BULK OF THE PRECIP SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF JAMES BAY. ALOFT WE
REMAIN UNDER BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WHILE THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET SHIFTS NORTH OF THE BORDER...MEAN 925-850MB FLOW OF 30-40KTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY SOME
LAKE EFFECT WEDS NIGHT THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
TRENDS DRIER BUT COOLER AS COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES POST-FRONTAL
PASSAGE. 850MB TEMPS FALL BELOW 0C WITH A CHILLY THOUGH NEAR
NORMAL NIGHT EXPECTED WEDS NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. ONE LAST SHORTWAVE SKIMS IN THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...BUT BY AND LARGE CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY...COOL AND BRISK
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND MODEST WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 328 AM EDT TUESDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH GOOD CONSISTENCY
NOTED BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS. THE FORECAST PERIOD
BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION WITH A RETURN TO ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW. MAY SEE
A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS ONCE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. LOW TEMPS THURSDAY
NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. FRIDAY LIKEWISE LOOKS TRANQUIL WITH WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE 53-57F RANGE.
A DEVELOPING SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SLOWLY EASTWARD BRINGING A
PLEASANT WEEKEND TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND DRY WEATHER. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS SURFACE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THAT SAID...MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40 (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THE COLDEST 850MB
TEMPERATURES (-2C TO -3C) ARE IN PLACE ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SURFACE HIGH ON SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW-MID 50S. THE AIR MASS MODERATES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. ON
MONDAY...SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY
500MB FLOW. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S...BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A DEVELOPING CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY (30-40 POPS...HIGHEST WEST).
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...WIDELY SCT -SHRAS AND BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE
AT KPBG/KSLK THROUGH 21Z...OTW VFR THROUGH 04-06Z TIME FRAME AS
DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS MORNING`S RAFL EXITS NORTHEAST
AND STRONGER ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY TO 20-25 KTS...TRENDING
MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND ABATING THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LATTER ENERGY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
STEADIER SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER TO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO
THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF STEADIER PCPN GENERALLY
IN THE 04-13Z TIME FRAME WHEN A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY LLWS OF 35-50 KT ALSO LIKELY AS LOW LEVEL JET
TRAVERSES THE REGION. STRONGEST LLWS LIKELY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE
ENHANCED VALLEY CHANNELING EFFECTS EXPECTED. AFTER
12/14Z...STEADIER RAINFALL EXITS NORTHEAST...AS CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE. COULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS.
WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY TO 25 KTS.
OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. COULD SEE A
PASSING SHOWER AND BRIEF MVFR AT A FEW SPOTS THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY...OTW JUST SCT/BKN VFR CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS MORNING WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
PRODUCING WAVES ON ORDER OF 2 TO 4 FEET. A LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING BRIEFLY WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
DROPPING OFF SLIGHTLY...BUT STRENGTHENS AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH WINDS PICKING BACK UP ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS AND
REMAINING STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT ROUGH BOATING
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG/WGH/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...LAHIFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
606 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY A DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MAY INFLUENCE THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AS WELL. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BACK EDGE OF MAIN SYNOPTIC BAND OF PRECIP NOW ABOUT HALF WAY ACROSS
THE CWA. AFTER THIS BAND...MAINLY JUST A NARROW BAND ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT. HRRR AND RUC HAVE A LOT OF THE COLD FRONT CONVECTION
NOW IN INDIANA AND LWR MI WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES EAST...PROBABLY
DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT WILL NOT BUY OFF ON THIS AS
MUCH AS THESE MODELS SHOW. WILL ADJUST POPS/WX TO BEST FIT CURRENT
SITUATION WITH PROJECTION INTO NEXT FEW HOURS. A LITTLE LIGHTNING
SHOWING UP IN A FEW SPOTS SO WILL STAY WITH SLIGHT MENTION OF
THUNDER.
OVERNIGHT FORCING AND BEST MOISTURE MOVE EAST WITH DRYING MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE WAVE.
AFTER MIDNIGHT POPS TAPER TO JUST A CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES INTO NWRN PA. GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S LOOK
FINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER
LOW NORTH OF THE LAKES FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL EAST. NAM12 SHOWS
FAIRLY DRY AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA. ENOUGH MOISTURE HANGS OVER
THE NORTHEAST TO HOLD ONTO CLOUDS THERE HOWEVER. 850MB TEMPS NEAR
0C WED AFTERNOON AND BUFKIT SHOWS ONLY CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY
WITH REGARD TO THE LAKE WHICH IS AT 63F OFF KCLE SO FOR NOW HIGH
CHANCE POPS LOOK FINE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS NWRN PA...OTHERWISE DRY AS WEAK HIGH APPEARS TO HOLD
ON AHEAD OF APPROACHING OVERRUNNING MOISTURE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MODELS HAVE BEEN AND CONTINUE TO BE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH
HOW FAR NORTH THE DEEP MOISTURE REACHES. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOIST
MODEL WITH THE NAM NOW HOLDING THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
THE SREF OFFERS NO STARK RESOLUTION BETWEEN THE OTHER TWO. SO FOR
NOW WILL BRING AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...MAINLY
SOUTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT
DRY AIR AND HIGHER PRESSURE BUILD TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE SKIES. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION
ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST AS WELL INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A
RETURN BACK TO A THREAT FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EAST AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL SETUP SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW BY MONDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THE LOW
WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RETURN AS THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES LODGED
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS AND THE SOUTHERN FLOW PUMPS WARMER AIR AND
MORE MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
OCCASIONAL LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO LOWER THIS EVENING WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE
WESTERLY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECTING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE INCREASING BY MORNING TO
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SOME TIME. EXPECTING
THE POSSIBILITY THAT WINDS COULD DIE DOWN FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. ONCE THE TROUGH GOES BY
WINDS WILL INCREASE QUITE A BIT LATER TONIGHT. SO WILL JUST GO AHEAD
AND KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING. BEST AREA FOR THE LIGHTER
WINDS IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AREA WILL BE NORTH OF CLEVELAND. I
STILL THINK SMALL CRAFT WILL BE WARRANTED THERE ONCE WINDS SHIFT
LATER ON THIS EVENING. JUST SPOKE WITH OUR FRIENDS IN CANADA ON
POSSIBLE GALE WARNING FOR LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY. WE DECIDED TO HOLD
OFF ON THE ISSUANCE DUE TO THE WINDS INCREASING TO 30 KNOTS AND NOT
EXPECTED TO QUITE REACH GALES. IF IT DOES...IT SHOULD ONLY LAST A
FEW HOURS. SO WILL HOLD OFF ON THE GALE FOR NOW. WINDS FINALLY
DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS INTO
SATURDAY. EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ON SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
559 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE ILN CWA...LEAVING
A MUCH MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES OVER
THE ILN CWA...EVEN IN THE FAR SOUTH WHERE CONDITIONS WERE ONCE
WARMER...ARE NOW IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.
HOWEVER...A SHARP GRADIENT IN BOTH T/TD AND INSTABILITY STILL
EXISTS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST BORDER OF THE CWA...WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UNTOUCHED AIR NEAR LOUISVILLE AS HIGH AS THE MID 70S.
WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME QUESTION IN THE FORECAST FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
NEW BAND OF CONVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ILN FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. A BROKEN LINE OF CUMULUS EXTENDING FROM
FRANKFORT KENTUCKY TO WASHINGTON INDIANA WAS THE FIRST SIGN THAT
THIS MAY OCCUR...AND NOW PROTO-SUPERCELLS ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF
LOUISVILLE. WHETHER OR NOT THIS ACTIVITY IS TRULY SURFACE-BASED OR
NOT IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT WITH SHEAR STILL SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE...THE DECISION WAS MADE TO KEEP THE TORNADO WATCH FOR
SEVERAL COUNTIES IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ILN CWA.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS INDIANA AND
NORTHWEST OHIO...AND THIS MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL THREAT OF STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND/HAIL CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THIS THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED...AND CAN BE HANDLED WITHOUT A WATCH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
THE ILN FORECAST AREA IS CURRENTLY COVERED BY A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS PRODUCING THUNDER
AND BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE...THOUGH THERE IS
ALSO A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING EAST INTO THE REGION AS WELL. DESPITE
THE WIDESPREAD RAIN...GUSTY SSW FLOW HAS LED TO INCREASES IN
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE...MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER FOR NOW. HOWEVER...AROUND 300-600 J/KG OF
MIXED LAYER CAPE IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE A FEW TIERS OF COUNTIES
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN GRADIENT
OF INSTABILITY (NORTH OF WHICH...LITTLE TO NO SURFACE INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED) WILL EXTEND ROUGHLY THROUGH THE ILN CWA ON A LINE
FROM FRANKLIN COUNTY INDIANA TO FAIRFIELD COUNTY OHIO. SOUTH OF
THIS...THE EVENTUAL CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
ROOTED AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND CAPABLE OF TAKING ADVANTAGE OF
A STRONG WIND PROFILE. THE EXIT REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET IS
MOVING OVER THE AREA. MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW OF 40-60 KNOTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAT WILL BE EASILY SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS...WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR (AIDED BY THE SSW FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER) COMES ALONG WITH SOME TURNING IN THE LOWEST ONE OR
TWO KILOMETERS. THE CURVED HODOGRAPHS COMBINE WITH THE DEEPER
SHEAR AND MOIST CONDITIONS TO SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT FOR THE
AREA NOW COVERED BY TORNADO WATCH 523. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT
FOR TORNADOES...COOL CONDITIONS ALOFT (FREEZING LEVELS OF 8-10
THOUSAND FEET) WILL ALLOW FOR HAIL TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN
ROTATING UPDRAFTS. A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND IS CERTAINLY PRESENT
AS WELL. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE AFFECTED AREA
MAY SEEM COOL AND DAMP...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTAIN BOUNDARY LAYER
LAPSE RATES AND PROFILES THAT ARE DEFINITELY NOT STABLE.
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL DISCRETE OR
SEMI-DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND BEHIND THE CURRENT CLUSTER OF
SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
ALREADY ONGOING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ILN CWA. HRRR/SPC-WRF
UPDRAFT HELICITY PRODUCTS INDICATE A LIKELIHOOD FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS IN THE AREA COVERED BY THE WATCH...AND TORNADO PARAMETERS
CALCULATED FROM SREF/RAP PROJECTIONS ALSO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
THE THREAT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING BY ROUGHLY 01Z.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH IS NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG...THOUGH SURFACE FLOW DOES TURN MORE WESTERLY AFTER SUNSET.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME DECREASES IN TEMPERATURE FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH A DROP IN SEVERAL DEGREES COMPARED TO MIN TEMPS LAST
NIGHT...WITH COOLEST READINGS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THOUGH SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOK VERY
DRY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT WESTERLY WINDS THAT MAY GUST TO AROUND 20
KNOTS DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONDITIONS CALM
CONSIDERABLY HEADED INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS THIS OCCURS AT THE SURFACE...QUICK MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL
SET UP ALOFT. CONVERGENCE ALONG A THETA-E BOUNDARY ALOFT WILL BEGIN
TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY...AS
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST AND SPREADS ACROSS THE
ILN CWA. THE DEVELOPING FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE AN IMPACT AT
THE SURFACE...LEADING TO A SLIGHTLY INCREASED TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AS IT SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES MOVING INTO
KENTUCKY BY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED MODELS START OFF IN GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT THEN DIVERGE BY
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM SIMON
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. A BOUNDARY IN PLACE
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA WILL
INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE RAIN WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE
OF EMBEDDED THUNDER. THE RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
SOUTH... WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH.
MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE EVIDENT DURING THE WEEKEND... AS THE
ECMWF POINTS TO A DRY PERIOD ON SATURDAY... WHILE THE GFS SHOWS ONLY
A BRIEF SHOT OF DRY AIR BEFORE PRECIP ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY. THIS TREND OF SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
SYSTEMS AND A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THE ECMWF PERSISTS THROUGH
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK... WHILE THE GFS TENDS TO BE FASTER AND LESS
AMPLIFIED. THE CANADIAN SOLUTION LEANS TOWARD THE ECMWF... AND WE
HAVE OPTED TO TEND TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALL OF THE SOLUTIONS DO KEY IN ON MOISTURE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THEREFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 60S FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING A FEW
DEGREES ON SATURDAY. THESE VALUES WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE 70S MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIG EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE
WILL COMBINE WITH A MOIST...AND AN INCREASING UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT THE SOUTHERN TAF
SITES OF KILN...KCVG AND KLUK WITH A LESSER THREAT FARTHER NORTH. AS
SUCH...HAVE PLACED VCTS AT KDAY...KCMH...AND KLCK. HOWEVER...WILL
MONITOR RADAR TRENDS SHOULD TEMPO TSRA BE NEEDED FOR THESE SITES.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND LOWER CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE MORE ROBUST SHOWERS AND
STRONGER STORMS.
AS THE DISTURBANCE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...OVERALL
DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. PCPN SHOULD END...AND DESPITE
A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST OVERNIGHT...WE SHOULD JUST SEE
SCATTERED CLOUDS. WIND FLOW MAY LIGHTEN ENOUGH AT KLUK FOR SOME
IFR VSBYS DUE TO RIVER FOG.
ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
FROM THE WEST. CAA CUMULUS CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING
ONWARD ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND. WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND
20 KNOTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST DURING THE MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
.OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
155 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL RETURN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONGLY FORCED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. AN EMBEDDED S/WV WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL BE THE
IMPETUS TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS FEATURE WILL
INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL JET SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
RAP AND NAM SUGGESTING POSSIBLE 50 TO 60 KNOTS AT 850 MB. OVERALL
BULK SHEAR...0-3KM/0-6KM...WILL BE STRONG AS WELL. THE QUESTION
FOR TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF MLCAPES TO ADVECT NORTHEAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. BELIEVE WE WILL BE ABLE TO OBTAIN AT LEAST
500 J/KG. AND WITH THESE VALUES COMBINED WITH STRONG
SHEAR...STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT
WE MAY SEE A DEVELOPING LINEAR FEATURE WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
FORCING. IF SO...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO OCCUR
WITH THIS GIVEN STRONG WIND FLOW ALOFT. ALSO...WITH SUBSTANTIAL
SHEAR...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULE AT AS ELEMENTS IN THE
LINE MAY TAKE ON MINI SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS. WET BULB ZERO
WILL BE IN THE FAVORABLE 8-9 KFT RANGE...AND WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ROTATING STORMS...LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE
ROTATION PRODUCES STRONG LIFT...DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITIES.
SPC HAS PLACED OUR SRN CWFA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND THIS LOOKS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN
AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS. HAVE UPDATED THE HWO TO REFLECT THE
INCREASE IN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY
GIVEN CLOUDS....PCPN...BUT DECENT LOW LEVEL WAA. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOWER 60S NORTH TO UPPER 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NAM IS A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING PCPN OFF TO THE EAST THIS
EVENING AND BOTH THE NMM AND ARW ARE SUGGESTING A WEAKENING LINE
OF CONVECTION PUSHING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. NOT
SURE HOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT TO SUPPORT
THUNDER...BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND HANG ON TO SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS
INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING THEM OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL THEN TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN
WILL ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY
SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THESE SHORT WAVES AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE MUCH FASTER ECMWF AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING POPS
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LEANED TOWARDS THE QUICKER EXITING ECMWF MODEL WHICH WAS CLOSER
TO YESTERDAYS GFS. THE GFS SHUNTS THE FRONT FARTHER IN KENTUCKY
THAN THE ECMWF OR CMC FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS CAUSES A SLOWER RETURN IN
THE PCPN OVER THE WEEKEND.
ENERGY DIGGING OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES PUSHES THE MOISTURE BACK
ACROSS REGION SUNDAY AND DEVELOPS CDFNT FRONT WHICH PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS
RETURN MOISTURE AND FNT...SO HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF TIMING.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS...IN THE 60S...
FRIDAY. EVEN COOLER AIR WORKS IN ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WITH THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP A FEW DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIG EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE
WILL COMBINE WITH A MOIST...AND AN INCREASING UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT THE SOUTHERN TAF
SITES OF KILN...KCVG AND KLUK WITH A LESSER THREAT FARTHER NORTH. AS
SUCH...HAVE PLACED VCTS AT KDAY...KCMH...AND KLCK. HOWEVER...WILL
MONITOR RADAR TRENDS SHOULD TEMPO TSRA BE NEEDED FOR THESE SITES.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND LOWER CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE MORE ROBUST SHOWERS AND
STRONGER STORMS.
AS THE DISTURBANCE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...OVERALL
DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. PCPN SHOULD END...AND DESPITE
A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST OVERNIGHT...WE SHOULD JUST SEE
SCATTERED CLOUDS. WIND FLOW MAY LIGHTEN ENOUGH AT KLUK FOR SOME
IFR VSBYS DUE TO RIVER FOG.
ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
FROM THE WEST. CAA CUMULUS CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING
ONWARD ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND. WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND
20 KNOTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST DURING THE MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
.OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/JGL
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HAYDU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
342 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
IMPULSES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO TONIGHT. THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND INTO
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA WEDNESDAY...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING A
RETURN TO DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY MORNING...THE HIGH WILL BE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM MDT TUESDAY...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH AXIS
EXTENDING SWEETHEART FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. EMBEDDED WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THESE WILL CREATE ENOUGH DYNAMIC
LIFT TO COMBINE WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO
REGENERATE DEEPER CONVICTION.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE TROF LIFTS NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN SHORT LINE
SEGMENTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUST WINDS WITH 85H WINDS
AROUND 40KTS.
SHAPED POPS TOWARDS THE HRRR AND RNKWRF ARW FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. SEEMS LIKE THE MESOSCALE SOLUTIONS ARE CAPTURING THE 85MB
JET MAX OF 50KNOT AHEAD OF THE STRONG MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT
ROTATES NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA
TONIGHT. ALSO...THE SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION WHICH IS DEVELOPING
WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTING INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY.
NOT CONCERN OVER ANY FLOODING ISSUE AT THIS TIME...UNLESS THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO FOCUS THE HEAVY RAINFALL FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME DUE TO
THE FAST STORM MOVEMENT...MEAN CLOUD LAYER WINDS OF 45 KTS. IN THIS
HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOCUS SHOULD BE ON THE WIND AND NOT THE
RAIN. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST...THEN TAPER OFF AFTER 06Z
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT CLOSE
TO THE ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING AN END TO LEFTOVER
SHOWERS AND DIMINISH CLOUD COVER HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF A RETREATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND SUNSHINE WILL
WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY MORNING. WILL BE STAYING CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV NUMBERS
FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BY FRIDAY MORNING THE HIGH WILL BE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL
EXTEND FROM WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...
LONG WAVE 500 TROF DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. ECMWF WAS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS TROF THAN OTHER
SOLUTIONS...CLOSING OFF A LOW IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. WILL BE
LEANING TOWARD MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION...THOUGH WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH SATURDAY. TROFFING
REMAINS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A BUILDING
WEDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. BETTER VORTICITY ADVECTION AND UPPER
SUPPORT ARRIVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AND DEEPER LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
850 MB TEMPERATURES WIND UP WARMER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT THAT MAY
NOT MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE SINCE THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE WEDGED IN
AT THE SURFACE AND CLOUDY. WILL STAY AOB GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS LONG AS WEDGE IS GONE ON
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 138 PM EDT TUESDAY...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL BE
WAVES OF CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OH/TN
VALLEYS...AND TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE OHIO/TN VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE TO STEER UPPER DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE AREA INTO TONIGHT WITH MAIN FRONT NOT MOVING INTO THE
REGION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REGENERATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREAT IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF
ROANOKE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE
GREATEST.
CLOUD BASES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND LOW END VFR TO MVFR IN THE MOUNTAINS.
ISOLATED POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR CONVECTION.
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST... 10-15KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. STRONGER
SHOWERS AND ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD MIX DOWN STRONGER 30
TO 40KT GUSTS. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS (EXCLUDING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN SOME OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEY
SPOTS...SUCH AS AT/NEAR KLWB...KBCB) FOR WEDNESDAY.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEATHER
DISTURBANCE IMPINGES ON THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATER THURSDAY OR
ON FRIDAY. SUB VFR LIKELY TOWARD SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH
AND SFC HIGH MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES SETTING UP A WEDGE
SCENARIO.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/PM
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...KK/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
138 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. IMPULSES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND INTO THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING A RETURN TO
DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS 1208 PM EDT TUESDAY...
MODIFIED POPS FOR AREA OF CONVECTION LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF
TENNESSEE. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES WITH THE LATEST OBS AND RAISED
HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES IN THE EAST WHERE THERE IS
ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE. PNS SENT OUT WITH RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS. MORE CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON...
AS OF 952 AM EDT TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF WILL
PROVIDED LIFT TO CREATE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN SHORT LINE
SEGMENTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS WITH 85H WINDS
AROUND 40KTS. HOWEVER...WITH THE CLOUDS AND MORNING SHOWERS...
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AT BEST..AND DESPITE THE INCREASING
SHEAR...BETTER SUPPORT FOR STRONG STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
DISPLAYED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA. SPC IN THEIR DAY 1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK DECIDED TO PLACE A SLIGHT CHANCE (15% OF
SEVERE WEATHER) TO OUR WEST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN
OHIO AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA. THE MAIN THREAT IS WIND POTENTIAL.
SHAPED POPS THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS A BLEND OF
THE HRRR AND RNK WRFARW. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES TOWARDS CURRENT
OBS AND MODEL TRENDS FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
HOLD WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS...BECAUSE TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE LARGELY INFLUENCED BY EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND
TIMING/ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION. MORE CHANGES LATER...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...
BROAD QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ENERGY WAS PROVIDING DYNAMIC LIFT WITH
GREATEST UPPER LEVEL WIND DIVERGENCE OCCURRING NEAR THE BASE OF
THE TROF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS AREA OF FOCUSED LIFT WAS
INTERACTING WITH PLUME OF WARM/MOIST AIR FLOWING NORTH FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO...BOUNDARY LAYER CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG NOSING
INTO TENNESSEE AND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. THIS AREA OF JUXTAPOSED
THERMODYNAMIC AND DYNAMIC FORCING IS THE BREEDING GROUND FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAVE BEEN MOVING
DOWNSTREAM INTO OUR FORECAST AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
UNTIL THE TROF LIFTS NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.
THUS FAR...HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST STORMS HAVE RESIDED WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...AND MORE SO...AS YOU HEAD INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS.
THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TODAY AS THE BETTER LIFT AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE REMAINS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
MESOSCALE MODELS CONFINE MOST OF THE QPF TO OUR WESTERN CWA...WITH
UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE GREENBRIER AND NEW
RIVER VALLEYS...AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NW NC. AT SOME
POINT...PROBABLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY...ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS TO SURVIVE THE TRIP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
FORECAST TODAY WILL HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
(POP) AND ELEVATED QPF WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH INCREASING
POP AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME RAINFALL TO AREAS EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIMILAR TO LAST
EVENING...SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN SHORT LINE SEGMENTS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. 85H WINDS ARE RUNNING ABOUT
40KTS...AND MOMENTUM MIX DOWN WILL PRODUCE SOME HEALTHY WIND
GUSTS AT THE SURFACE. FORECAST REFLECTS GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THAT SAID...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AT BEST..AND DESPITE
THE INCREASING SHEAR...BETTER SUPPORT FOR STRONG STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DISPLAYED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA.
OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...ALTHOUGH RESPECTABLE IN THE
WESTERN CWA... SHOULD FALL SHORT OF ANY HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS.
UNLESS THE SHOWERS/STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO FOCUS THE HEAVY RAINFALL FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME DUE
TO THE FAST STORM MOVEMENT...MEAN CLOUD LAYER WINDS OF 45 KTS. IN
THIS HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOCUS SHOULD BE ON THE WIND AND
NOT THE RAIN.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE LARGELY INFLUENCED BY EXTENT OF CLOUD
COVER AND TIMING/ARRIVAL OF UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS.
COOLEST READINGS IN UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS...RANGING UP TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WHERE BETTER INSOLATION AND A LATER ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION
THREAT IS EXPECTED. READINGS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
MILD...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S PROVIDING A FLOOR TO THE
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND SUNRISE...TO WESTERLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL BRING AN END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY LEFT OVER FROM EARLY MORNING...
AS WELL AS HELP CLOUD COVER DIMINISH HEADING INTO LUNCHTIME. THE
COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE WINDS...RETREATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL HELP PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO THEIR
WARMEST IN SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE PIEDMONT CLIMBS INTO THE UPPER
70S/LOW 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO PUSH
OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MAKE FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS SINKING
GENERALLY INTO THE 40S. FACTOR IN MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS...AND
BELIEVE PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT.
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY AS OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH FROM
THE WEST...RIDING A FRONT THAT IS SINKING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BEGINNING
AROUND SUNSET...WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH WINDS RETURNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES AWAY...GULF MOISTURE WILL MAKE ITS RETURN...HELPING
TO MODERATE THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS BY HOLDING THEM IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW
50S WEST...AND THE UPPER 50S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT TUESDAY...
NEXT SIGNIFICANT TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
COMES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HELPING TO
DRAW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AND INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE FRONT IN ADVANCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HAVE LOWERED
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE WEDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 138 PM EDT TUESDAY...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL BE
WAVES OF CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OH/TN
VALLEYS...AND TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE OHIO/TN VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE TO STEER UPPER DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE AREA INTO TONIGHT WITH MAIN FRONT NOT MOVING INTO THE
REGION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REGENERATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREAT IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF
ROANOKE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE
GREATEST.
CLOUD BASES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND LOW END VFR TO MVFR IN THE MOUNTAINS.
ISOLATED POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR CONVECTION.
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST... 10-15KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. STRONGER
SHOWERS AND ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD MIX DOWN STRONGER 30
TO 40KT GUSTS. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS (EXCLUDING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN SOME OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEY
SPOTS...SUCH AS AT/NEAR KLWB...KBCB) FOR WEDNESDAY.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEATHER
DISTURBANCE IMPINGES ON THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATER THURSDAY OR
ON FRIDAY. SUB VFR LIKELY TOWARD SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH
AND SFC HIGH MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES SETTING UP A WEDGE
SCENARIO.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...KK/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1209 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. IMPULSES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND INTO THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING A RETURN TO
DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS 1208 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MODIFIED POPS FOR AREA OF CONVECTION LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF
TENNESSEE. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES WITH THE LATEST OBS AND RAISED
HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES IN THE EAST WHERE THERE IS
ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE. PNS SENT OUT WITH RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS. MORE CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON...
AS OF 952 AM EDT TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF WILL
PROVIDED LIFT TO CREATE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN SHORT LINE
SEGMENTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS WITH 85H WINDS
AROUND 40KTS. HOWEVER...WITH THE CLOUDS AND MORNING SHOWERS...
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AT BEST..AND DESPITE THE INCREASING
SHEAR...BETTER SUPPORT FOR STRONG STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
DISPLAYED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA. SPC IN THEIR DAY 1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK DECIDED TO PLACE A SLIGHT CHANCE (15% OF
SEVERE WEATHER) TO OUR WEST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN
OHIO AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA. THE MAIN THREAT IS WIND POTENTIAL.
SHAPED POPS THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS A BLEND OF
THE HRRR AND RNK WRFARW. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES TOWARDS CURRENT
OBS AND MODEL TRENDS FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
HOLD WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS...BECAUSE TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE LARGELY INFLUENCED BY EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND
TIMING/ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION. MORE CHANGES LATER...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...
BROAD QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ENERGY WAS PROVIDING DYNAMIC LIFT WITH
GREATEST UPPER LEVEL WIND DIVERGENCE OCCURRING NEAR THE BASE OF
THE TROF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS AREA OF FOCUSED LIFT WAS
INTERACTING WITH PLUME OF WARM/MOIST AIR FLOWING NORTH FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO...BOUNDARY LAYER CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG NOSING
INTO TENNESSEE AND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. THIS AREA OF JUXTAPOSED
THERMODYNAMIC AND DYNAMIC FORCING IS THE BREEDING GROUND FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAVE BEEN MOVING
DOWNSTREAM INTO OUR FORECAST AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
UNTIL THE TROF LIFTS NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.
THUS FAR...HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST STORMS HAVE RESIDED WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...AND MORE SO...AS YOU HEAD INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS.
THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TODAY AS THE BETTER LIFT AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE REMAINS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
MESOSCALE MODELS CONFINE MOST OF THE QPF TO OUR WESTERN CWA...WITH
UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE GREENBRIER AND NEW
RIVER VALLEYS...AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NW NC. AT SOME
POINT...PROBABLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY...ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS TO SURVIVE THE TRIP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
FORECAST TODAY WILL HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
(POP) AND ELEVATED QPF WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH INCREASING
POP AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME RAINFALL TO AREAS EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIMILAR TO LAST
EVENING...SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN SHORT LINE SEGMENTS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. 85H WINDS ARE RUNNING ABOUT
40KTS...AND MOMENTUM MIX DOWN WILL PRODUCE SOME HEALTHY WIND
GUSTS AT THE SURFACE. FORECAST REFLECTS GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THAT SAID...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AT BEST..AND DESPITE
THE INCREASING SHEAR...BETTER SUPPORT FOR STRONG STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DISPLAYED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA.
OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...ALTHOUGH RESPECTABLE IN THE
WESTERN CWA... SHOULD FALL SHORT OF ANY HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS.
UNLESS THE SHOWERS/STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO FOCUS THE HEAVY RAINFALL FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME DUE
TO THE FAST STORM MOVEMENT...MEAN CLOUD LAYER WINDS OF 45 KTS. IN
THIS HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOCUS SHOULD BE ON THE WIND AND
NOT THE RAIN.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE LARGELY INFLUENCED BY EXTENT OF CLOUD
COVER AND TIMING/ARRIVAL OF UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS.
COOLEST READINGS IN UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS...RANGING UP TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WHERE BETTER INSOLATION AND A LATER ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION
THREAT IS EXPECTED. READINGS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
MILD...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S PROVIDING A FLOOR TO THE
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND SUNRISE...TO WESTERLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL BRING AN END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY LEFT OVER FROM EARLY MORNING...
AS WELL AS HELP CLOUD COVER DIMINISH HEADING INTO LUNCHTIME. THE
COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE WINDS...RETREATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL HELP PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO THEIR
WARMEST IN SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE PIEDMONT CLIMBS INTO THE UPPER
70S/LOW 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO PUSH
OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MAKE FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS SINKING
GENERALLY INTO THE 40S. FACTOR IN MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS...AND
BELIEVE PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT.
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY AS OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH FROM
THE WEST...RIDING A FRONT THAT IS SINKING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BEGINNING
AROUND SUNSET...WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH WINDS RETURNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES AWAY...GULF MOISTURE WILL MAKE ITS RETURN...HELPING
TO MODERATE THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS BY HOLDING THEM IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW
50S WEST...AND THE UPPER 50S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT TUESDAY...
NEXT SIGNIFICANT TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
COMES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HELPING TO
DRAW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AND INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE FRONT IN ADVANCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HAVE LOWERED
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE WEDGE.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE WAVES OF SHOWERS THAT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS...MOVING EAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO/TN VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE TO STEER
UPPER DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MAIN
FRONT NOT MOVING INTO THE REGION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. BREAK IN THE
ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR THIS MORNING MORNING...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE
REGENERATION OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN THREAT IN THE MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF ROANOKE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST. CLOUD BASES
DURING THE DAY TODAY SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AND LOW END VFR TO HIGH END MVFR IN THE MOUNTAINS. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO HAVE IFR GIVEN GOOD SW FLOW KEEPING CIGS/VSBYS MIXED.
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...
10-15KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. STRONGER SHOWERS AND
ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MIX DOWN STRONGER 30 TO 40KT GUSTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS (EXCLUDING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN SOME OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN
VALLEY SPOTS...SUCH AS AT/NEAR KLWB...KBCB) FOR WEDNESDAY INTO AT
LEAST THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE IMPINGES ON THE
AREA FROM THE WEST LATER THURSDAY OR ON FRIDAY. SUB VFR LIKELY
TOWARD SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND SFC HIGH MOVING EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES SETTING UP A WEDGE SCENARIO.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM