Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/06/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
150 PM PDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:39 PM PDT SATURDAY...
FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON HOW RAPIDLY THE COOL DOWN OCCURS. TODAY
THE HRRR MODEL EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED THE DELAYED SEA BREEZE
ONSET WELL AND THIS ALLOWED FOR COASTAL TEMPS IN THE PENINSULA TO
QUICKLY WARM UP INTO THE 80S BUT THEY HAVE SINCE COOLED OFF AS THE
SEA BREEZE HAS ARRIVED AS EXPECTED. SO FOR SOME AREAS ITS
CURRENTLY 20+ DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...BUT AT
OTHERS ITS VERY SIMILAR OR EVEN A LITTLE WARMER. OUR UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A DEEP AND STRONG EAST COAST TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY AND STEADILY WEAKEN
OVER OUR AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR MORE ONSHORE FLOW
TO DEVELOP AND THE EXPECTED COOLING TREND TO TAKE PLACE. READINGS
WILL FALL BACK TO CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
THE COAST COOLING MOST AT FIRST BUT AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS THE
COOLING TREND WILL BE EXPERIENCED EVEN AT THE HOTTER INTERIOR
LOCALES. WILL MONITOR THE PATH OF HURRICANE SIMON WHICH IS
CURRENTLY A MAJOR HURRICANE AND 5 DAY TRACK BRINGS IT INTO BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THE LONGER TERM PATTERN SUGGESTS THERE WILL NOT BE A
MECHANISM TO TRANSPORT THIS STORM OR ITS REMNANT MOISTURE INTO OUR
AREA. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE 7 DAY
PERIOD AS THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WEST. A TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT
OVER THE SOUTHWEST BY NEXT WEEKEND...AS A STRONGER RIDGE MOVES IN
OFF THE PACIFIC. WILL MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A STRONGER
OFFSHORE EVENT DEVELOPING AGAIN BY COLUMBUS DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:15 AM PDT SATURDAY...VFR AND MOSTLY LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WINDS 10-15 KT.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY (10/4)
ALONG WITH THE DATE(S) IT OCCURRED.
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/4...
KENTFIELD................99/1987/1933
SAN RAFAEL..............100/1980
NAPA....................100/1987
SAN FRANCISCO...........100/1987
SFO AIRPORT..............95/1987
OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN).......92/1987/1985
OAKLAND AIRPORT..........90/1953
RICHMOND.................99/1987
LIVERMORE...............106/1980
MOFFETT FIELD............94/1987
SAN JOSE.................96/1987
GILROY..................103/1980
MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/4...
MONTEREY.................94/1953
SANTA CRUZ..............101/1987
SALINAS..................98/1987
SALINAS AIRPORT.........100/1987
KING CITY...............106/1933
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 01:39 PM PDT SATURDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...HEAT ADVISORY...HEAT ADVISORY...MONTEREY BAY AREA...URBAN AREAS OF THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND SANTA CLARA VALLEY UNTIL 9 PM.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS
CLIMATE: BELL
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1016 AM PDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST. A GRADUAL
COOLING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK AS
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS AND THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:19 AM PDT SATURDAY...
MONITORING CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND TRENDS FOR MINOR TWEAKS IN THE
HOT WEATHER FORECAST TODAY. NOTED BUOYS REPORTING NW WINDS
CURRENTLY...WITH OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE LAND. HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ALREADY IN JEOPARDY ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF
NORTH BAY AND PENINSULA...WITH LOW 70S ALREADY NEAR OCEAN BEACH
AND NE WINDS. THIS WILL FURTHER COMPLICATE THE TIMING OF THE
COOLING SEA BREEZE PUSH IN AND AROUND SF. HAVE FOR NOW RAISED
TEMPERATURES BY A FEW (2-4) DEGREES. NOTED THAT UPDATED HRRR WINDS
FOR THE SF AREA SHOW OFFSHORE DIRECTION PERSISTING THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SUGGESTS WARMER READINGS ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE
DELAYED ONSET OF ONSHORE FLOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
THIS MORNING AS TO HOW RAPIDLY THE READINGS RISE UNDER CLEAR SKIES
WITH DRY AIR AND AN OFFSHORE WIND. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES AS 24 HOUR
CHANGE SHOWS MOST AREAS NEAR YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:15 AM PDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE STATE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF VERY
WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE AND
WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES...HAVE MADE CHANGES TO THE HEAT
ADVISORY TO INCLUDE COASTAL LOCATIONS OF THE MONTEREY BAY. THIS IS
BETTING ON A LATE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA-BREEZE AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING QUICKLY DURING THE LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES
MAY NOT REACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA IF THE
SEA-BREEZE DOES DEVELOP EARLY ENOUGH. OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY
AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY EXCEED THE 90 DEGREE MARK AGAIN IN
MANY LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO. THUS...HAVE KEPT
THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE URBAN AREAS OF THE BAY AREA DOWN
THROUGH THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...HAVE
DROPPED THE ADVISORY GIVEN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND THE
FACT THAT THESE AREAS ARE MORE PRONE TO THE HEAT.
BY SUNDAY...JUST ABOUT ALL COASTAL LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE SOME RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ALOFT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. WITH ONSHORE FLOW BECOMING MORE
PRONOUNCED BY MIDWEEK...A WEAK MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY RETURN AND
BRING OVERNIGHT/MORNING COASTAL CLOUDS BACK TO THE REGION. THIS
TOO WILL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS. ALBEIT
WEAKER...THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY INLAND.
LATE IN THE WEEK A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO
DISRUPT THE RIDGE ALOFT...CAUSING IT TO WEAKEN FURTHER. THIS TOO
WILL COOL THE AIR MASS ALOFT AND ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FALL
BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
PERSIST THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND
ASSOCIATED STORM TRACK STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:15 AM PDT SATURDAY...VFR AND MOSTLY LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WINDS 10-15 KT.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY (10/4)
ALONG WITH THE DATE(S) IT OCCURRED.
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/4...
KENTFIELD................99/1987/1933
SAN RAFAEL..............100/1980
NAPA....................100/1987
SAN FRANCISCO...........100/1987
SFO AIRPORT..............95/1987
OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN).......92/1987/1985
OAKLAND AIRPORT..........90/1953
RICHMOND.................99/1987
LIVERMORE...............106/1980
MOFFETT FIELD............94/1987
SAN JOSE.................96/1987
GILROY..................103/1980
MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/4...
MONTEREY.................94/1953
SANTA CRUZ..............101/1987
SALINAS..................98/1987
SALINAS AIRPORT.........100/1987
KING CITY...............106/1933
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 09:19 AM PDT SATURDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...HEAT ADVISORY...MONTEREY BAY AREA...URBAN AREAS OF THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS
CLIMATE: BELL
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
929 AM PDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST. A GRADUAL
COOLING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK AS
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS AND THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:19 AM PDT SATURDAY...
MONITORING CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND TRENDS FOR MINOR TWEAKS IN THE
HOT WEATHER FORECAST TODAY. NOTED BUOYS REPORTING NW WINDS
CURRENTLY...WITH OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE LAND. HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ALREADY IN JEOPARDY ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF
NORTH BAY AND PENINSULA...WITH LOW 70S ALREADY NEAR OCEAN BEACH
AND NE WINDS. THIS WILL FURTHER COMPLICATE THE TIMING OF THE
COOLING SEA BREEZE PUSH IN AND AROUND SF. HAVE FOR NOW RAISED
TEMPERATURES BY A FEW (2-4) DEGREES. NOTED THAT UPDATED HRRR WINDS
FOR THE SF AREA SHOW OFFSHORE DIRECTION PERSISTING THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SUGGESTS WARMER READINGS ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE
DELAYED ONSET OF ONSHORE FLOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
THIS MORNING AS TO HOW RAPIDLY THE READINGS RISE UNDER CLEAR SKIES
WITH DRY AIR AND AN OFFSHORE WIND. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES AS 24 HOUR
CHANGE SHOWS MOST AREAS NEAR YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:15 AM PDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE STATE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF VERY
WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE AND
WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES...HAVE MADE CHANGES TO THE HEAT
ADVISORY TO INCLUDE COASTAL LOCATIONS OF THE MONTEREY BAY. THIS IS
BETTING ON A LATE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA-BREEZE AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING QUICKLY DURING THE LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES
MAY NOT REACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA IF THE
SEA-BREEZE DOES DEVELOP EARLY ENOUGH. OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY
AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY EXCEED THE 90 DEGREE MARK AGAIN IN
MANY LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO. THUS...HAVE KEPT
THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE URBAN AREAS OF THE BAY AREA DOWN
THROUGH THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...HAVE
DROPPED THE ADVISORY GIVEN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND THE
FACT THAT THESE AREAS ARE MORE PRONE TO THE HEAT.
BY SUNDAY...JUST ABOUT ALL COASTAL LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE SOME RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ALOFT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. WITH ONSHORE FLOW BECOMING MORE
PRONOUNCED BY MIDWEEK...A WEAK MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY RETURN AND
BRING OVERNIGHT/MORNING COASTAL CLOUDS BACK TO THE REGION. THIS
TOO WILL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS. ALBEIT
WEAKER...THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY INLAND.
LATE IN THE WEEK A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO
DISRUPT THE RIDGE ALOFT...CAUSING IT TO WEAKEN FURTHER. THIS TOO
WILL COOL THE AIR MASS ALOFT AND ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FALL
BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
PERSIST THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND
ASSOCIATED STORM TRACK STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 04:15 AM PDT SATURDAY...VFR AND MOSTLY LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY (10/4)
ALONG WITH THE DATE(S) IT OCCURRED.
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/4...
KENTFIELD................99/1987/1933
SAN RAFAEL..............100/1980
NAPA....................100/1987
SAN FRANCISCO...........100/1987
SFO AIRPORT..............95/1987
OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN).......92/1987/1985
OAKLAND AIRPORT..........90/1953
RICHMOND.................99/1987
LIVERMORE...............106/1980
MOFFETT FIELD............94/1987
SAN JOSE.................96/1987
GILROY..................103/1980
MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/4...
MONTEREY.................94/1953
SANTA CRUZ..............101/1987
SALINAS..................98/1987
SALINAS AIRPORT.........100/1987
KING CITY...............106/1933
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 09:19 AM PDT SATURDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...HEAT ADVISORY...MONTEREY BAY AREA...URBAN AREAS OF THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: AC
CLIMATE: BELL
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
304 PM MDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SAT OCT 4 2014
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT THIS AFTERNOON. A BIT OF CLOUDINESS OVER
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE AND SOME LEE WAVES DOWNWIND OF
PARTS OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ARE ABOUT IT FOR MOISTURE. GUSTY
WINDS UP HIGH...IN THE FOOTHILLS AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS
ARE ALSO OCCURRING. THIS IS PRETTY MUCH THE STORY FOR SUNDAY AS
WELL. SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY HOLDS ON TO THE WAVE CLOUDS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AND HAVE ATTEMPTED TO ADD THIS TO THE
SKY GRIDS. SEVERAL OF THE MODELS ARE WANTING TO PAINT SOME LIGHT
QPF ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND WILL ADD SOME LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND MATCH UP WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES ALTHOUGH THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH QG
SUPPORT FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SAT OCT 4 2014
...BEAUTIFUL FALL WEATHER WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERS
RETURNING LATE NEXT WEEK...
MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE WILL CREEP IN
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO RISE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THAT MOISTURE TRANSITION TO THE
EAST LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THESE
TWO DAYS BEFORE TEMPS START DECREASING THURSDAY.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE NOT YET IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE INTERACTION OF BOTH THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SIMON TO
OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. EITHER SOLUTION
WILL BRING ADDED MOISTURE TO THE REGION INCREASING CHANCES OF
COOLER TEMPS WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND SOME AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT POPS AND WEATHER FOR
THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SAT OCT 4 2014
WINDS DID SWING AROUND TO EASTERLY DIRECTIONS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE
EARLIER RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP WERE SHOWING AND HAVE REMAINED ON
THE LIGHT SIDE...ALSO AS FORECAST BY THOSE MODELS. KAPA HAS BEEN
THE EXCEPTION WHERE A BIT STRONGER NORTHERLIES HAVE OCCURRED. THESE
MODELS STILL WANT TO BRING SOME LIGHT WESTERLIES INTO THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME HINT OF THAT SHOWING
UP IN SURFACE DATA AT THIS TIME BUT TOUGH TO TELL IF IT WILL HOLD
TOGETHER. BRIEF GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS MAY OCCUR. STILL ANTICIPATING
DRAINAGE PATTERNS TO SET UP BY MIDNIGHT. SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THOSE OBSERVED SATURDAY.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...ET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
644 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WILL COME TO AND END
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT...
DRIER AND COOLER AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. AFTER A COOL MONDAY MORNING MILDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT LATE TUE INTO WED. MORE SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED FRI AS LOW
PRESSURE HEADS E FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
645 PM UPDATE...
*** BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING ***
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH LIFTED N FROM LONG ISLAND HAS FRAGMENTED
A BIT BUT WAS STILL PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE INCH PER
HOUR LOCALLY. THIS WILL SHIFT INTO N CENTRAL MA AND S NH THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. OTHERWISE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI BEFORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND WEAK SURFACE LOW CROSS REGION EARLY TONIGHT. IT SHOULD REACH
JAFFREY...WORCESTER AND PROVIDENCE BY 10 PM AND MANCHESTER...
BOSTON AND CAPE COD CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT /A LITTLE BEHIND BACK EDGE
OF RAIN ON RADAR/.
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT MEANS PATCHY FOG/LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE...BUT DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY WIN
BATTLE OVERNIGHT AS SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR. W/NW WINDS MAY GUST UP TO
20-25 MPH BEFORE DAYBREAK.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HANDLES ALL OF THIS WELL SO ONLY MAKE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POP TO MATCH RADAR TRENDS. HRRR DOING A GOOD JOB
AND WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...
TYPICAL EARLY OCTOBER WEATHER WITH TEMPS IN THE U50S AND L60S
ALONG WITH A BRISK WNW WIND UP TO 20-25 MPH...THEN DIMINISHING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLUMN IS FAIRLY DRY AND CORE OF COLD AIR
ALOFT WELL TO THE WEST. THUS LAPSE RATES MODEST AT BEST SO NOT
MUCH DIURNAL CU/SCU EXPECTED. HENCE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
SUN NIGHT...
CHILLY NIGHT AND FOLLOWED THE COLDER MOS GUIDANCE INSTEAD OF A
MODEL BLEND. MAY NEED FROST ADVISORIES FOR WESTERN/NW MA INTO
SOUTHWEST NH. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AS SURFACE HIGH SLIPS
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WITH PGRAD RELAXING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* MILD MON AND TUE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
* SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED
* MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI
DETAILS...
CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH MOST
OF EXTENDED PERIOD...BEFORE SHIFTING N OF MARITIMES BY NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS KEEPS TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHEAST MUCH OF WEEK BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY WEEKEND.
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE HEADS OFFSHORE RESULTING IN MILDER S/SW FLOW
ACROSS REGION. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MIXING TO NEAR 850 MB SUPPORTS
HIGHS WELL INTO 60S AWAY FROM S COAST.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM GREAT LAKES TUE
AND CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED MORNING. BROAD S/SW FLOW IN
PLACE AHEAD OF FRONT WILL BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED...ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL. DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUDS TUE...HIGHS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO 60S AND LOWER 70S GIVEN
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. AIRMASS BEHIND FRONT IS NOT MUCH COOLER AND WITH
SUNSHINE/W FLOW HIGHS WED SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO REACH 60S TO AROUND
70 ACROSS MOST OF AREA.
THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WITH
DIMINISHING W FLOW. SHOULD STILL BE RATHER MILD WITH HIGHS IN 60S.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER OH VALLEY HEADS E AND
SHOULD CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI NIGHT BEFORE HEADING OFFSHORE
EARLY SAT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO MUCH OF
REGION...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS FOCUSED CLOSER TO S COAST FRI AND FRI
NIGHT. HOWEVER MODELS/ENSEMBLES HINT AT DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE CENTER ALONG FRONT S OF NEW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR MUCH OF PERIOD.
MONDAY...INCREASING S WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE NEAR SHORE
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. SEAS MAY REACH 5 FT ON OPEN S
COASTAL WATERS BY EVENING. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT MAINLY
NEAR S COAST.
TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAINTAINS S/SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KT AND 5-6 FT SEAS ON OPEN S COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE IN DAY AND AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS DURING DAY WITH WIND SHIFT TO
SW AND THEN W...POSSIBLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30KT DURING AFTERNOON.
SEAS BUILD FURTHER ON OPEN WATERS TO AS HIGH AS 7 FT.
THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS AND SEAS.ENGLAND SAT MORNING...WHICH WILL PROBABLY DELAY
CLEARING S OF MASS PIKE UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON OR EVENING. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS SAT AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING MORE FALL-
LIKE AIRMASS TO REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE SUN/SUN NIGHT.
IFR/LIFR PERSIST EARLY TONIGHT IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER...
MAINLY FROM SW NH INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MA AND RI. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO MVFR BEHIND BACK EDGE OF SHOWERS WHERE COLD FRONT IS
LOCATED...AND FURTHER IMPROVE TO VFR A FEW HOURS LATER. TIMING
BRINGS BACK EDGE TO ORH/PVD AROUND 00Z...MHT/BOS/HYA CLOSER TO
03-04Z. BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEST WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR LIKELY ALONG WITH DRY RUNWAYS. WEST
WINDS MAY GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING THE MORNING THEN DIMINISHING IN
THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET.
KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MARGINAL LLWS 22Z-02Z WITH WINDS
AT 2KFT 16040KT.
KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MARGINAL LLWS TIL 21Z WITH WINDS
AT 2 KFT 15040KT.
OUTLOOK...MON THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...VFR. S WINDS GUSTING TO 25KT. PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN FOG LATE
MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY...S WINDS GUSTING TO 25KT. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SHOWERS/
ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS INTERIOR LATE IN DAY...AND ACROSS MOST OF AREA
TUE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...MAINLY
EARLY. VFR WITH CLEARING BY AFTERNOON AND W WINDS GUSTING TO 25KT.
THURSDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT...
LEFTOVER EAST SWELLS EASTERN MA WATERS BUT DEVELOPING SE WIND
WAVES ALL WATERS. SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY RAIN THIS EVENING
THEN MOVING WELL OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED
TSTM SOUTHERN WATERS. SE WINDS BECOME WNW WITH THE WIND SHIFT AND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. VSBY IMPROVES WITH THE WIND SHIFT TOO.
SUNDAY...
WNW WINDS UP TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING DIMINISHES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.
SUN NIGHT...
LIGHT WINDS/GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF PERIOD.
MONDAY...INCREASING S WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE NEAR SHORE
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. SEAS MAY REACH 5 FT ON OPEN S
COASTAL WATERS BY EVENING. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT MAINLY
NEAR S COAST.
TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAINTAINS S/SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KT AND 5-6 FT SEAS ON OPEN S COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE IN DAY AND AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS DURING DAY WITH WIND SHIFT TO
SW AND THEN W...POSSIBLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30KT DURING AFTERNOON.
SEAS BUILD FURTHER ON OPEN WATERS TO AS HIGH AS 7 FT.
THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS AND SEAS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237-
251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/JWD
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/JWD
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...NOCERA/JWD
MARINE...NOCERA/JWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
124 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH THE SHOWERS TAPERING OFF DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IS ON ITS WAY.
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIOINS AND TRENDS...CURRNET FORECAST ON
TRACK THROUGH SUNRISE. RADAR SHOWING RAIN MOVING IN AND
TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING TOWARD CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS. JUST
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNRISE.
IT WILL BE MILD OVERNIGHT A SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE PERSISTS AND CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVING THERE COULD BE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION
WILL LIKELY PREVENT THESE GUSTS FROM MIXING TO THE VALLEY FLOOR
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE TROUGH AND OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR WESTERN AREAS BY
MIDDAY...REACHING THE HUDSON VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND OUR
EASTERN ZONES BY THE EVENING.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY STAY JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION...BUT MIGHT
SNEAK NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
SHOWALTER INDEX (WHICH IS IN THE INSTABILITY BETWEEN H850 AND THE
H500 LEVEL) LOOKS TO APPROACH ZERO IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS MEANS
THIS AREA COULD BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ALOFT SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA ONLY. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES FORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND TAP INTO
THE ROBUST WIND FIELD TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 40-50 MPH. SO...WE WILL
ALSO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS.
PWATS LOOK TO REACH 1.5 INCHES EARLY ON SATURDAY...MAINLY FROM THE
HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
RAIN (EVEN IF THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT MATERIALIZE). FOR THE MOST
PART...THIS WILL BE A BENEFICIAL RAINFALL SINCE MANY AREAS HAVE NOT
HAD A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SINCE SEPTEMBER 16TH.
THE SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY EXIT OUR WESTERN ZONES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABLY NOT CLEAR THE HUDSON VALLEY AND ESPECIALLY
AREAS EAST UNTIL AROUND DARK.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD TO THE
60S...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH.
THE WIND ON SATURDAY WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE VALLEYS...5-15
MPH. AN INVERSION LOOKS TO HOLD AND SHOULD PREVENT GUSTS MUCH
STRONGER THAN THAT. HOWEVER...DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A 45 LOW
LEVEL KT JET MOVES THROUGH...THE WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 45 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.
WE DID NOT PUT UP ANY WIND ADVISORIES SINCE IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL
FALL JUST SHORT OF THE WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD. HOWEVER WE WILL
MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE IN THE H.W.O. SINCE IT IS STILL
POSSIBLE ONE MIGHT BE NEEDED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE LOW LEVEL JET ACTUALLY LOOKS TO MOVE ON THROUGH BY LATE IN THE
DAY.
AFTER A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY EAST EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...
CLEARING WILL FOLLOW LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AS A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS
WORKS IN FROM THE WSW. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM AROUND +12C
EARLY SATURDAY...TO ABOUT 0C BY SUNDAY MORNING! THEO ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THE CLEARING WILL BE THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COMBINATION OF AN
UPSLOPE FLOW AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WILL
KEEP CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS GOING. IT MIGHT EVEN BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE GRAUPEL OR EVEN THE SEASON/S FIRST
FLURRIES. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA IT WILL JUST TURN SEASONABLY
CHILLY.
LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 40 IN THE VALLEYS...30S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...CLOSE TO FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS.
THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE WEST OR SOUTHEAST 5-15 MPH...DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ADIRONDACKS...SUNDAY SHOULD A DRY DAY
STARTING OUT WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
THOSE PERSISTENT CLOUDS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WITH THE COOL AIR
ALOFT...EXCEPT SCATTERED TO BROKEN INSTABILITY CLOUDS TO FORM...MORE
SO OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW THESE COULD REAP A SPRINKLE BUT
THAT WOULD BE ABOUT IT. THERE COULD BE "MEASURABLE" SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH PERHAPS SOME EARLY MORNING GRAUPEL OR WET SNOW
FLAKES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 IN THE
VALLEYS...ONLY UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
THE WIND WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH...WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND QUITE CHILLY. MANY AREAS
TO NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY LOOK TO HAVE POTENTIAL FROST AND OR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES. EVEN FROM ALBANY AND POINTS SOUTH AND
EAST...SOME SPOTTY FROST IS POSSIBLE WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.
MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PUMP SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR OUR WAY. IT WILL TURN RATHER BREEZY AND THE
WARMUP WILL NOT BE ALL THE ROBUST WITH HIGHS ONLY 60-65 IN THE
VALLEYS...55-60 HIGHER TERRAIN.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN CENTRAL CANADA WILL STARTING POOLING
MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS BRINGING A STRAY SHOWER TO THE ADIRONDACKS BEFORE DAY/S
END.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT STILL APPEARS OUR WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH SETTING UP TO OUR WEST...AT LEAST DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL RELAX BY LATE NEXT
WEEK...A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL EXIST NEAR OUR REGION KEEPING
THE WEATHER POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
A SOUTHWESTERLY INCREASINGLY MOIST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF MORE
SHOWERS.
ANOTHER WEAKER OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT KEEPING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AND COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BUT SINCE WE WILL
REMAIN IN A CYCLONIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
BY FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPRAWLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH. WARMER AIR
WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE BACK FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BUT AT THE
SAME TIME...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD FROM
CANADA. AT THIS POINT...THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT IS NOT CERTAIN
SO FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH IT THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH IS STRONG...WE
COULD SQUEAK BY THE DAY FRIDAY WITH MILD DRY CONDITIONS.
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM LOWER 60S TO AROUND 70
TUESDAY...UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND MID
60S TO LOWER 70S FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE REACHED THE WESTERN REACHES OF THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA AND CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WELL AHEAD
OF THE OCCLUDING BOUNDARY. THE HRRR 3-KM AND HIRESWRF MESOSCALE
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INCREASING THE SHOWERS
ACTIVITY AS IT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT AND BRINGING THE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WORKS INTO THE AREA.
HAVE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM BOTH WEST AND EAST. WIDESPREAD
MVFR WILL DEVELOP WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR AS CEILINGS
LOWER. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
BEGINNING BY AROUND 09Z AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU AND A COUPLE HOURS
LATER AT KPSF. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH A PERIOD OF VERY SHOWERS AS THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH LATE IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY
IMPROVEMENT TO ONLY MVFR IS EXPECTED BY 00Z/SUNDAY.
SOUTHEAST-EAST WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING OCCLUDED BOUNDARY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WITH ITS PASSAGE.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA IN THE EVNG.
SUN-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA
TUE-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FINALLY...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL GET A SOAKING RAIN ON SATURDAY WITH
ALL AREAS EXPECTING A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL OR MORE. WE ASSIGNED
A "WET FLAG" TO ALL OUR NFDRS FORECAST ON SATURDAY FOR THIS VERY
REASON. A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. DRIER COOLER WILL RETURN ON
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS A LARGE TROUGH
SETS UP TO OUR WEST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT LESS THAN 15 MPH...BUT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTERN CATSKILLS COULD SEE GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THE SOUTH WINDS
5-15 MPH WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN POSSIBLY
REACHING UP BRIEFLY UP TO 45 MPH.
SUNDAY...THE WIND WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST GENERALLY 5-15
MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A LINE OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CONTAINING MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
SOUTH OF ALBANY.
PROJECTED RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH
TO AROUND AN INCH...HIGHEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MIGHT BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM.
OVERALL THIS WILL BE AN EXTREMELY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL SINCE IT IS
HAS BEEN OVER TWO WEEKS SINCE MUCH OF THE REGION HAS SEEN A
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. SINCE IT HAS BEEN SO DRY OF LATE...THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE NO RESPONSE TO WATERSHEDS.
RAINFALL RATES MIGHT BRIEFLY BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADS AND AREAS WHERE DRAINS GET CLOGGED.
EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...THE RAIN
WILL BE OVER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY TUESDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY
TONIGHT. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THEN GIVE WAY TO A COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND EXTENDING DOWN ACROSS CHESAPEAKE BAY.
MEANWHILE, A POTENT UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING. A SATELLITE LOOP OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LARGE-
SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFYING AND ACQUIRING A NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE MS
VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES REGION AS A VORT MAX DIGS AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.
OVERALL, NOT TOO MANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME WITH REGARDS
TO THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND SOME AREAS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL
PROGRESSING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WE DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS USING
THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO CAPTURE THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
OTHERWISE, MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK FOR TODAY BASED ON
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND THE EXPECTED INFLOW OF COOLER/DRIER AIR
LATER TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE, SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT MID
MORNING. USING THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE,
THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP WILL REACH THE WESTERN ZONES OF THE
CWA LATE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, ENDING NEAR PHILLY AROUND LATE MORNING TO
MIDDAY AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE NJ SHORE/PASSAIC RIVER DURING THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE
WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN ONE- HALF INCH. HOWEVER, HIRES GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW RAIN BAND TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST. A
BRIEF HEAVY SHOWER OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS BAND LATER THIS MORNING.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT
OF THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. THE POST-FRONTAL CAA SHOULD
OFFSET DAYTIME HEATING. ACCORDINGLY, TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON
SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO CURRENT READINGS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
LATE IN THE DAY WHEN MUCH COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT,
AND WITH A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH, THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FRONT WILL STILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A 999 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT IN NEW ENGLAND
AND 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
STRONG OVER OUR REGION.
SIGNIFICANT CAA WILL ALLOW NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER TO PREVENT
DECOUPLING AND FOR THE WESTERLY WIND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WILL LIKELY SEE COLD AIR STRATOCU OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE EVENING
UNTIL MUCH DRIER AIR REACHES THE AREA AND ERODES THE LINGERING
CLOUDS. THE 0C 850 MB TEMPS MAKES ITS TRIUMPHANT RETURN TO THE AREA
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 30S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST NJ AND
NORTHEAST PA. THESE AIR TEMPS WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST
FORMATION BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND WARM GROUND TEMPS WILL
MAKE THE SETUP FOR FROST UNFAVORABLE. MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA INCLUDING ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: WE WILL BE IN A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT DRY. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO START IN
THIS PERIOD WILL COMPLETE AN IMPRESSIVE PLUMMET AND THIS WILL
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH THE COOLEST DAY IN A WHILE. MANY
LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 FOR HIGHS. OVERALL THE 10/04 00Z
GFS LOOKS WAY TO COOL AS IT EXTENDS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO OUR
REGION. ON THE OTHER HAND THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS LOOK TO WARM. THE
LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WENT WARMER WITH TWO THIRDS EMPHASIS PLACED
ON THE MET AND ECMWF. TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH BOTH
SURFACE AND SOIL TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION EVEN WITH CALM WINDS ATTM
FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY (35-40)(40`S ELSEWHERE).IT SHOULD
BE POINTED OUT IF THE FORECAST TRENDS COOLER THEN THE FROST THREAT
WOULD INCREASE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: WE WILL SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNTIED STATES. THE RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE MAV/MET AND
10/04 00Z GFS LOOK TO COOL GIVEN MODELED 925 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND
11C WHICH WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOW 70`S FOR PHL SE AND COOLER
NW. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 20 MPH TO BE TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE DECAYING AS IT TRIES TO FIGHT OFF THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST
LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE.HOWEVER, INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE THREAT
FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL LIKELY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIGHTER
TEMPERATURES SPREAD AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE MAV/MET IN
THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT : THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE REGION RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECT ANOTHER
SEASONAL DAY. LOWS A BIT WARMER GIVEN MORNING CLOUDS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ON THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS LIKELY TO KEEP A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES FOR MOST OF THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WILL FINALLY KICK OUT IN THIS PERIOD, RESULTING IN A
WARMER MORE ZONAL PATTERN. HOWEVER ONE MORE COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO
APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. QUITE
A TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF 10/04 00Z RUNS. RIGHT
NOW PREFER THE 00Z ECMWF OVERALL BUT DID NOT GO AS WARM GIVEN THE
MODEL DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME SCT TO BKN
CIGS WITH BASES AROUND 4000 TO 5000FT WILL REMAIN THROUGH LATE-DAY,
BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND SKIES CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS, BEFORE DIMINISHING TO MOSTLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS
FOR LATE EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED MAINLY CLEAR. WESTERLY WINDS
IN THE 8 TO 12 KNOT RANGE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS
15-20 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CAUSE
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 10-15 KNOTS AT TIMES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. WEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS
WELL AS THE DELAWARE BAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE
BEEN GUSTING 20-25 KT SO FAR WHILE SEAS JUST OFFSHORE ARE 5-6 FT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER DE
BAY AND EARLY THIS AFTN IN THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. THESE WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KT, ESPECIALLY
THIS EVENING ONCE COLDER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES. THE WARMER WATER TEMPS
WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND AM CONCERNED
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING: WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SEAS AND
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING CLOSER TO SCA CRITERIA.
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOME INTERMITTENT 25 KNOT WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTH WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CAMBRIDED ENDED UP CRESTING AROUND 4.1 FEET, SO MODERATE FLOODING
IS NO LONGER EXPECTED AND THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING WAS
DOWNGRADED TO AN ADVISORY. THE ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN BAY
REMAINS AS DEPARTURES FOR TOLCHESTER CONTINUES TO DECREASE AND IT
LOOKS TO GET CLOSE TO THE MINOR FLOOD LEVEL. IF THEY END UP GOING
BACK UP, WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE WARNING BACK NORTHWARD.
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND TIDAL
DELAWARE RIVER WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
ALONG THE COAST, THE NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, WINDS SHOULD BE OFFSHORE IN A POST- FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT,
SO TOTAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
012.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...KLEIN/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN/KLINE
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ROBERTSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1241 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY
TONIGHT. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THEN GIVE WAY TO A COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND EXTENDING DOWN ACROSS CHESAPEAKE BAY.
MEANWHILE, A POTENT UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING. A SATELLITE LOOP OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LARGE-
SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFYING AND ACQUIRING A NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE MS
VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES REGION AS A VORT MAX DIGS AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.
OVERALL, NOT TOO MANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME WITH REGARDS
TO THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND SOME AREAS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL
PROGRESSING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WE DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS USING
THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO CAPTURE THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
OTHERWISE, MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK FOR TODAY BASED ON
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND THE EXPECTED INFLOW OF COOLER/DRIER AIR
LATER TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE, SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT MID
MORNING. USING THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE,
THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP WILL REACH THE WESTERN ZONES OF THE
CWA LATE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, ENDING NEAR PHILLY AROUND LATE MORNING TO
MIDDAY AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE NJ SHORE/PASSAIC RIVER DURING THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE
WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN ONE- HALF INCH. HOWEVER, HIRES GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW RAIN BAND TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST. A
BRIEF HEAVY SHOWER OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS BAND LATER THIS MORNING.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT
OF THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. THE POST-FRONTAL CAA SHOULD
OFFSET DAYTIME HEATING. ACCORDINGLY, TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON
SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO CURRENT READINGS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
LATE IN THE DAY WHEN MUCH COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT,
AND WITH A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH, THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FRONT WILL STILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A 999 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT IN NEW ENGLAND
AND 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
STRONG OVER OUR REGION.
SIGNIFICANT CAA WILL ALLOW NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER TO PREVENT
DECOUPLING AND FOR THE WESTERLY WIND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WILL LIKELY SEE COLD AIR STRATOCU OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE EVENING
UNTIL MUCH DRIER AIR REACHES THE AREA AND ERODES THE LINGERING
CLOUDS. THE 0C 850 MB TEMPS MAKES ITS TRIUMPHANT RETURN TO THE AREA
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 30S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST NJ AND
NORTHEAST PA. THESE AIR TEMPS WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST
FORMATION BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND WARM GROUND TEMPS WILL
MAKE THE SETUP FOR FROST UNFAVORABLE. MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA INCLUDING ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: WE WILL BE IN A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT DRY. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO START IN
THIS PERIOD WILL COMPLETE AN IMPRESSIVE PLUMMET AND THIS WILL
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH THE COOLEST DAY IN A WHILE. MANY
LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 FOR HIGHS. OVERALL THE 10/04 00Z
GFS LOOKS WAY TO COOL AS IT EXTENDS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO OUR
REGION. ON THE OTHER HAND THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS LOOK TO WARM. THE
LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WENT WARMER WITH TWO THIRDS EMPHASIS PLACED
ON THE MET AND ECMWF. TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH BOTH
SURFACE AND SOIL TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION EVEN WITH CALM WINDS ATTM
FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY (35-40)(40`S ELSEWHERE).IT SHOULD
BE POINTED OUT IF THE FORECAST TRENDS COOLER THEN THE FROST THREAT
WOULD INCREASE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: WE WILL SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNTIED STATES. THE RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE MAV/MET AND
10/04 00Z GFS LOOK TO COOL GIVEN MODELED 925 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND
11C WHICH WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOW 70`S FOR PHL SE AND COOLER
NW. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 20 MPH TO BE TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE DECAYING AS IT TRIES TO FIGHT OFF THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST
LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE.HOWEVER, INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE THREAT
FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL LIKELY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIGHTER
TEMPERATURES SPREAD AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE MAV/MET IN
THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT : THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE REGION RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECT ANOTHER
SEASONAL DAY. LOWS A BIT WARMER GIVEN MORNING CLOUDS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ON THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS LIKELY TO KEEP A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES FOR MOST OF THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WILL FINALLY KICK OUT IN THIS PERIOD, RESULTING IN A
WARMER MORE ZONAL PATTERN. HOWEVER ONE MORE COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO
APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. QUITE
A TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF 10/04 00Z RUNS. RIGHT
NOW PREFER THE 00Z ECMWF OVERALL BUT DID NOT GO AS WARM GIVEN THE
MODEL DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS, ALONG WITH SHOWERS, WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE TERMINALS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU 13-15Z FOR THE PHILLY TERMINALS AND
15-17Z FOR ACY/MIV. THE FRONT WILL BE MARKED BY A WIND SHIFT FROM
S-SE TO W, AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS. WINDS
MAY BRIEFLY GUST 20-25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT.
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS STRONG CAA ARRIVES. W-NW WINDS WILL RELAX TO BELOW 10 KT
AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CAUSE
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 10-15 KNOTS AT TIMES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. WEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS
WELL AS THE DELAWARE BAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE
BEEN GUSTING 20-25 KT SO FAR WHILE SEAS JUST OFFSHORE ARE 5-6 FT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER DE
BAY AND EARLY THIS AFTN IN THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. THESE WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KT, ESPECIALLY
THIS EVENING ONCE COLDER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES. THE WARMER WATER TEMPS
WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND AM CONCERNED
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING: WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SEAS AND
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING CLOSER TO SCA CRITERIA.
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOME INTERMITTENT 25 KNOT WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTH WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CAMBRIDED ENDED UP CRESTING AROUND 4.1 FEET, SO MODERATE FLOODING
IS NO LONGER EXPECTED AND THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING WAS
DOWNGRADED TO AN ADVISORY. THE ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN BAY
REMAINS AS DEPARTURES FOR TOLCHESTER CONTINUES TO DECREASE AND IT
LOOKS TO GET CLOSE TO THE MINOR FLOOD LEVEL. IF THEY END UP GOING
BACK UP, WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE WARNING BACK NORTHWARD.
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND TIDAL
DELAWARE RIVER WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
ALONG THE COAST, THE NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, WINDS SHOULD BE OFFSHORE IN A POST- FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT,
SO TOTAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
012.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...KLEIN/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN/KLINE
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1045 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY
TONIGHT. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THEN GIVE WAY TO A COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND EXTENDING DOWN ACROSS CHESAPEAKE BAY.
MEANWHILE, A POTENT UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING. A SATELLITE LOOP OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LARGE-
SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFYING AND ACQUIRING A NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE MS
VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES REGION AS A VORT MAX DIGS AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.
OVERALL, NOT TOO MANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME WITH REGARDS
TO THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND SOME AREAS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL
PROGRESSING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WE DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS USING
THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO CAPTURE THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
OTHERWISE, MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK FOR TODAY BASED ON
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND THE EXPECTED INFLOW OF COOLER/DRIER AIR
LATER TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE, SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT MID
MORNING. USING THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE,
THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP WILL REACH THE WESTERN ZONES OF THE
CWA LATE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, ENDING NEAR PHILLY AROUND LATE MORNING TO
MIDDAY AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE NJ SHORE/PASSAIC RIVER DURING THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE
WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN ONE- HALF INCH. HOWEVER, HIRES GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW RAIN BAND TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST. A
BRIEF HEAVY SHOWER OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS BAND LATER THIS MORNING.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT
OF THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. THE POST-FRONTAL CAA SHOULD
OFFSET DAYTIME HEATING. ACCORDINGLY, TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON
SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO CURRENT READINGS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
LATE IN THE DAY WHEN MUCH COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT,
AND WITH A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH, THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FRONT WILL STILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A 999 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT IN NEW ENGLAND
AND 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
STRONG OVER OUR REGION.
SIGNIFICANT CAA WILL ALLOW NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER TO PREVENT
DECOUPLING AND FOR THE WESTERLY WIND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WILL LIKELY SEE COLD AIR STRATOCU OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE EVENING
UNTIL MUCH DRIER AIR REACHES THE AREA AND ERODES THE LINGERING
CLOUDS. THE 0C 850 MB TEMPS MAKES ITS TRIUMPHANT RETURN TO THE AREA
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 30S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST NJ AND
NORTHEAST PA. THESE AIR TEMPS WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST
FORMATION BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND WARM GROUND TEMPS WILL
MAKE THE SETUP FOR FROST UNFAVORABLE. MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA INCLUDING ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: WE WILL BE IN A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT DRY. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO START IN
THIS PERIOD WILL COMPLETE AN IMPRESSIVE PLUMMET AND THIS WILL
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH THE COOLEST DAY IN A WHILE. MANY
LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 FOR HIGHS. OVERALL THE 10/04 00Z
GFS LOOKS WAY TO COOL AS IT EXTENDS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO OUR
REGION. ON THE OTHER HAND THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS LOOK TO WARM. THE
LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WENT WARMER WITH TWO THIRDS EMPHASIS PLACED
ON THE MET AND ECMWF. TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH BOTH
SURFACE AND SOIL TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION EVEN WITH CALM WINDS ATTM
FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY (35-40)(40`S ELSEWHERE).IT SHOULD
BE POINTED OUT IF THE FORECAST TRENDS COOLER THEN THE FROST THREAT
WOULD INCREASE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: WE WILL SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNTIED STATES. THE RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE MAV/MET AND
10/04 00Z GFS LOOK TO COOL GIVEN MODELED 925 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND
11C WHICH WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOW 70`S FOR PHL SE AND COOLER
NW. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 20 MPH TO BE TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE DECAYING AS IT TRIES TO FIGHT OFF THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST
LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE.HOWEVER, INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE THREAT
FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL LIKELY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIGHTER
TEMPERATURES SPREAD AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE MAV/MET IN
THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT : THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE REGION RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECT ANOTHER
SEASONAL DAY. LOWS A BIT WARMER GIVEN MORNING CLOUDS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ON THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS LIKELY TO KEEP A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES FOR MOST OF THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WILL FINALLY KICK OUT IN THIS PERIOD, RESULTING IN A
WARMER MORE ZONAL PATTERN. HOWEVER ONE MORE COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO
APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. QUITE
A TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF 10/04 00Z RUNS. RIGHT
NOW PREFER THE 00Z ECMWF OVERALL BUT DID NOT GO AS WARM GIVEN THE
MODEL DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS, ALONG WITH SHOWERS, WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE TERMINALS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU 13-15Z FOR THE PHILLY TERMINALS AND
15-17Z FOR ACY/MIV. THE FRONT WILL BE MARKED BY A WIND SHIFT FROM
S-SE TO W, AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS. WINDS
MAY BRIEFLY GUST 20-25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT.
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS STRONG CAA ARRIVES. W-NW WINDS WILL RELAX TO BELOW 10 KT
AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CAUSE
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 10-15 KNOTS AT TIMES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. WEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS
WELL AS THE DELAWARE BAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE
BEEN GUSTING 20-25 KT SO FAR WHILE SEAS JUST OFFSHORE ARE 5-6 FT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER DE
BAY AND EARLY THIS AFTN IN THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. THESE WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KT, ESPECIALLY
THIS EVENING ONCE COLDER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES. THE WARMER WATER TEMPS
WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND AM CONCERNED
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING: WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SEAS AND
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING CLOSER TO SCA CRITERIA.
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOME INTERMITTENT 25 KNOT WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTH WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE HAVE HAD TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE LOWER PART OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AS CAMBRIDE CONTINUES TO RISE WITH DEPARTURES
AROUND 2.7 FEET; IT NOW LOOKS LIKE CAMBRIDGE WILL GET TO AT LEAST
4.5 FEET ABOVE MLLW. THE ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN BAY REMAINS AS
DEPARTURES FOR TOLCHESTER CONTINUES TO DECREASE. IF THEY END UP
GOING BACK UP, WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE WARNING BACK NORTHWARD.
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND TIDAL
DELAWARE RIVER WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. REEDY JUST BARELY
REACHED MINOR LEVELS AND PHILLY ENDED UP JUST SHORT. WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS NOW ACROSS THE AREA, THE NEXT HIGH TIDE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR LEVELS AT THIS TIME.
ALONG THE COAST, THE ASTRONOMICAL CONTRIBUTION TO THE TOTAL TIDE
LEVEL WILL BE A LITTLE LESS THIS MORNING FOR HIGH TIDE, SO
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE IN THE DELAWARE BAY AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THEN FOR THE NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS SHOULD BE OFFSHORE IN A POST-
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, SO TOTAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ016-
021.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NJZ017>019.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
012.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ015-
019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...KLEIN/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN/KLINE
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1013 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY
TONIGHT. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THEN GIVE WAY TO A COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND EXTENDING DOWN ACROSS CHESAPEAKE BAY.
MEANWHILE, A POTENT UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING. A SATELLITE LOOP OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LARGE-
SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFYING AND ACQUIRING A NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE MS
VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES REGION AS A VORT MAX DIGS AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.
OVERALL, NOT TOO MANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME WITH REGARDS
TO THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND SOME AREAS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL
PROGRESSING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WE DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS USING
THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO CAPTURE THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
OTHERWISE, MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK FOR TODAY BASED ON
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND THE EXPECTED INFLOW OF COOLER/DRIER AIR
LATER TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE, SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT MID
MORNING. USING THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE,
THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP WILL REACH THE WESTERN ZONES OF THE
CWA LATE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, ENDING NEAR PHILLY AROUND LATE MORNING TO
MIDDAY AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE NJ SHORE/PASSAIC RIVER DURING THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE
WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN ONE- HALF INCH. HOWEVER, HIRES GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW RAIN BAND TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST. A
BRIEF HEAVY SHOWER OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS BAND LATER THIS MORNING.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT
OF THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. THE POST-FRONTAL CAA SHOULD
OFFSET DAYTIME HEATING. ACCORDINGLY, TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON
SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO CURRENT READINGS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
LATE IN THE DAY WHEN MUCH COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT,
AND WITH A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH, THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FRONT WILL STILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A 999 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT IN NEW ENGLAND
AND 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
STRONG OVER OUR REGION.
SIGNIFICANT CAA WILL ALLOW NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER TO PREVENT
DECOUPLING AND FOR THE WESTERLY WIND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WILL LIKELY SEE COLD AIR STRATOCU OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE EVENING
UNTIL MUCH DRIER AIR REACHES THE AREA AND ERODES THE LINGERING
CLOUDS. THE 0C 850 MB TEMPS MAKES ITS TRIUMPHANT RETURN TO THE AREA
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 30S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST NJ AND
NORTHEAST PA. THESE AIR TEMPS WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST
FORMATION BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND WARM GROUND TEMPS WILL
MAKE THE SETUP FOR FROST UNFAVORABLE. MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA INCLUDING ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: WE WILL BE IN A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT DRY. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO START IN
THIS PERIOD WILL COMPLETE AN IMPRESSIVE PLUMMET AND THIS WILL
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH THE COOLEST DAY IN A WHILE. MANY
LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 FOR HIGHS. OVERALL THE 10/04 00Z
GFS LOOKS WAY TO COOL AS IT EXTENDS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO OUR
REGION. ON THE OTHER HAND THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS LOOK TO WARM. THE
LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WENT WARMER WITH TWO THIRDS EMPHASIS PLACED
ON THE MET AND ECMWF. TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH BOTH
SURFACE AND SOIL TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION EVEN WITH CALM WINDS ATTM
FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY (35-40)(40`S ELSEWHERE).IT SHOULD
BE POINTED OUT IF THE FORECAST TRENDS COOLER THEN THE FROST THREAT
WOULD INCREASE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: WE WILL SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNTIED STATES. THE RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE MAV/MET AND
10/04 00Z GFS LOOK TO COOL GIVEN MODELED 925 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND
11C WHICH WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOW 70`S FOR PHL SE AND COOLER
NW. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 20 MPH TO BE TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE DECAYING AS IT TRIES TO FIGHT OFF THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST
LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE.HOWEVER, INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE THREAT
FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL LIKELY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIGHTER
TEMPERATURES SPREAD AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE MAV/MET IN
THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT : THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE REGION RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECT ANOTHER
SEASONAL DAY. LOWS A BIT WARMER GIVEN MORNING CLOUDS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ON THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS LIKELY TO KEEP A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES FOR MOST OF THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WILL FINALLY KICK OUT IN THIS PERIOD, RESULTING IN A
WARMER MORE ZONAL PATTERN. HOWEVER ONE MORE COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO
APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. QUITE
A TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF 10/04 00Z RUNS. RIGHT
NOW PREFER THE 00Z ECMWF OVERALL BUT DID NOT GO AS WARM GIVEN THE
MODEL DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS, ALONG WITH SHOWERS, WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE TERMINALS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU 13-15Z FOR THE PHILLY TERMINALS AND
15-17Z FOR ACY/MIV. THE FRONT WILL BE MARKED BY A WIND SHIFT FROM
S-SE TO W, AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS. WINDS
MAY BRIEFLY GUST 20-25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT.
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS STRONG CAA ARRIVES. W-NW WINDS WILL RELAX TO BELOW 10 KT
AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CAUSE
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 10-15 KNOTS AT TIMES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. WEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS
WELL AS THE DELAWARE BAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE
BEEN GUSTING 20-25 KT SO FAR WHILE SEAS JUST OFFSHORE ARE 5-6 FT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER DE
BAY AND EARLY THIS AFTN IN THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. THESE WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KT, ESPECIALLY
THIS EVENING ONCE COLDER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES. THE WARMER WATER TEMPS
WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND AM CONCERNED
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING: WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SEAS AND
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING CLOSER TO SCA CRITERIA.
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOME INTERMITTENT 25 KNOT WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTH WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY WAS
CANCELLED AS THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE HAS PASSED, AND WAS REPLACED
WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NOW THAT
NORTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY WINDS HAVE MADE IT TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, WE
EXPECT TIDAL DEPARTURES TO BEGIN TO DECREASE SOME. CBOFS SHOWS
TOLCHESTER GETTING CLOSE TO MINOR FLOOD LEVEL, AND WITH THE
CURRENT LEVELS SO HIGH, IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO LOWER
FURTHER. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE
WAS EXTENDED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE UPCOMING HIGH
TIDE AS CBOFS SHOWS CAMBRIDGE GETTING AROUND 4 FEET THIS MORNING.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND
THE LOWER DELAWARE RIVER. POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE AROUND 2 FT
AT SHIP JOHN SHOALS AND REEDY POINT, WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO WATER
LEVELS PEAKING AT ADVISORY THRESHOLD. HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND 10 AM FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
ALONG THE COAST,THE ASTRONOMICAL CONTRIBUTION TO THE TOTAL TIDE
LEVEL WILL BE A LITTLE LESS THIS MORNING FOR HIGH TIDE, SO
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE IN THE DELAWARE BAY AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THEN FOR THE NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS SHOULD BE OFFSHORE IN A POST-
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, SO TOTAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ016-
021.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NJZ017>019.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
012.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...KLEIN/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN/KLINE
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ROBERTSON/KLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
901 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY
TONIGHT. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THEN GIVE WAY TO A COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A POTENT UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING. A SATELLITE LOOP OF WATER VAPOR NICELY SHOWS THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFYING AND ACQUIRING A NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE
MS VALLEY AS A VORT MAX DIGS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.
AT THE SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED NEAR THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE APPALACHIANS AT 07Z. DEEP SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT IS TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE EAST COAST. A
CONNECTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC AND GULF OF MEXICO
CAN ALSO BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING. USING THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE, THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP
WILL REACH THE WESTERN ZONES OF THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, ENDING NEAR
PHILLY AROUND MIDDAY AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE NJ SHORE/PASSAIC RIVER
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN ONE-HALF INCH. HOWEVER, HIRES
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW RAIN BAND TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST.
A BRIEF HEAVY SHOWER OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS BAND LATER THIS MORNING.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT
OF THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. THE POST-FRONTAL CAA SHOULD
OFFSET DAYTIME HEATING. ACCORDINGLY, TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON
SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO CURRENT READINGS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
LATE IN THE DAY WHEN MUCH COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT,
AND WITH A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH, THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FRONT WILL STILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A 999 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT IN NEW ENGLAND
AND 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
STRONG OVER OUR REGION.
SIGNIFICANT CAA WILL ALLOW NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER TO PREVENT
DECOUPLING AND FOR THE WESTERLY WIND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WILL LIKELY SEE COLD AIR STRATOCU OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE EVENING
UNTIL MUCH DRIER AIR REACHES THE AREA AND ERODES THE LINGERING
CLOUDS. THE 0C 850 MB TEMPS MAKES ITS TRIUMPHANT RETURN TO THE AREA
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 30S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST NJ AND
NORTHEAST PA. THESE AIR TEMPS WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST
FORMATION BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND WARM GROUND TEMPS WILL
MAKE THE SETUP FOR FROST UNFAVORABLE. MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA INCLUDING ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: WE WILL BE IN A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT DRY. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO START IN
THIS PERIOD WILL COMPLETE AN IMPRESSIVE PLUMMET AND THIS WILL
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH THE COOLEST DAY IN A WHILE. MANY
LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 FOR HIGHS. OVERALL THE 10/04 00Z
GFS LOOKS WAY TO COOL AS IT EXTENDS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO OUR
REGION. ON THE OTHER HAND THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS LOOK TO WARM. THE
LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WENT WARMER WITH TWO THIRDS EMPHASIS PLACED
ON THE MET AND ECMWF. TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH BOTH
SURFACE AND SOIL TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION EVEN WITH CALM WINDS ATTM
FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY (35-40)(40`S ELSEWHERE).IT SHOULD
BE POINTED OUT IF THE FORECAST TRENDS COOLER THEN THE FROST THREAT
WOULD INCREASE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: WE WILL SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNTIED STATES. THE RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE MAV/MET AND
10/04 00Z GFS LOOK TO COOL GIVEN MODELED 925 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND
11C WHICH WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOW 70`S FOR PHL SE AND COOLER
NW. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 20 MPH TO BE TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE DECAYING AS IT TRIES TO FIGHT OFF THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST
LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE.HOWEVER, INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE THREAT
FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL LIKELY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIGHTER
TEMPERATURES SPREAD AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE MAV/MET IN
THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT : THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE REGION RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECT ANOTHER
SEASONAL DAY. LOWS A BIT WARMER GIVEN MORNING CLOUDS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ON THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS LIKELY TO KEEP A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES FOR MOST OF THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WILL FINALLY KICK OUT IN THIS PERIOD, RESULTING IN A
WARMER MORE ZONAL PATTERN. HOWEVER ONE MORE COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO
APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. QUITE
A TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF 10/04 00Z RUNS. RIGHT
NOW PREFER THE 00Z ECMWF OVERALL BUT DID NOT GO AS WARM GIVEN THE
MODEL DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
IFR CIGS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU RDG/ABE
AROUND 12-13Z, 13-15Z FOR THE PHILLY TERMINALS AND 15-17Z FOR
ACY/MIV. THE FRONT WILL BE MARKED BY A WIND SHIFT FROM S-SE TO W, AN
END TO THE SHOWERS AND IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST
20-25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT.
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS STRONG CAA ARRIVES. W-NW WINDS WILL RELAX TO BELOW 10 KT
AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CAUSE
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 10-15 KNOTS AT TIMES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. WEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS
WELL AS THE DELAWARE BAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE
BEEN GUSTING 20-25 KT SO FAR WHILE SEAS JUST OFFSHORE ARE 5-6 FT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER DE
BAY AND EARLY THIS AFTN IN THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. THESE WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KT, ESPECIALLY
THIS EVENING ONCE COLDER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES. THE WARMER WATER TEMPS
WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND AM CONCERNED
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING: WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SEAS AND
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING CLOSER TO SCA CRITERIA.
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOME INTERMITTENT 25 KNOT WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTH WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY WAS
CANCELLED AS THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE HAS PASSED, AND WAS REPLACED
WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NOW THAT
NORTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY WINDS HAVE MADE IT TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, WE
EXPECT TIDAL DEPARTURES TO BEGIN TO DECREASE SOME. CBOFS SHOWS
TOLCHESTER GETTING CLOSE TO MINOR FLOOD LEVEL, AND WITH THE
CURRENT LEVELS SO HIGH, IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO LOWER
FURTHER. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE
WAS EXTENDED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE UPCOMING HIGH
TIDE AS CBOFS SHOWS CAMBRIDGE GETTING AROUND 4 FEET THIS MORNING.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND
THE LOWER DELAWARE RIVER. POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE AROUND 2 FT
AT SHIP JOHN SHOALS AND REEDY POINT, WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO WATER
LEVELS PEAKING AT ADVISORY THRESHOLD. HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND 10 AM FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
ALONG THE COAST,THE ASTRONOMICAL CONTRIBUTION TO THE TOTAL TIDE
LEVEL WILL BE A LITTLE LESS THIS MORNING FOR HIGH TIDE, SO
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE IN THE DELAWARE BAY AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THEN FOR THE NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS SHOULD BE OFFSHORE IN A POST-
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, SO TOTAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ016-
021.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NJZ017>019.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
012.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ROBERTSON/KLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
634 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY
TONIGHT. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THEN GIVE WAY TO A COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A POTENT UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING. A SATELLITE LOOP OF WATER VAPOR NICELY SHOWS THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFYING AND ACQUIRING A NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE
MS VALLEY AS A VORT MAX DIGS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.
AT THE SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED NEAR THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE APPALACHIANS AT 07Z. DEEP SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT IS TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE EAST COAST. A
CONNECTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC AND GULF OF MEXICO
CAN ALSO BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING. USING THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE, THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP
WILL REACH THE WESTERN ZONES OF THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, ENDING NEAR
PHILLY AROUND MIDDAY AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE NJ SHORE/PASSAIC RIVER
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN ONE-HALF INCH. HOWEVER, HIRES
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW RAIN BAND TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST.
A BRIEF HEAVY SHOWER OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS BAND LATER THIS MORNING.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT
OF THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. THE POST-FRONTAL CAA SHOULD
OFFSET DAYTIME HEATING. ACCORDINGLY, TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON
SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO CURRENT READINGS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
LATE IN THE DAY WHEN MUCH COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT,
AND WITH A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH, THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FRONT WILL STILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A 999 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT IN NEW ENGLAND
AND 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
STRONG OVER OUR REGION.
SIGNIFICANT CAA WILL ALLOW NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER TO PREVENT
DECOUPLING AND FOR THE WESTERLY WIND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WILL LIKELY SEE COLD AIR STRATOCU OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE EVENING
UNTIL MUCH DRIER AIR REACHES THE AREA AND ERODES THE LINGERING
CLOUDS. THE 0C 850 MB TEMPS MAKES ITS TRIUMPHANT RETURN TO THE AREA
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 30S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST NJ AND
NORTHEAST PA. THESE AIR TEMPS WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST
FORMATION BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND WARM GROUND TEMPS WILL
MAKE THE SETUP FOR FROST UNFAVORABLE. MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA INCLUDING ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: WE WILL BE IN A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT DRY. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO START IN
THIS PERIOD WILL COMPLETE AN IMPRESSIVE PLUMMET AND THIS WILL
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH THE COOLEST DAY IN A WHILE. MANY
LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 FOR HIGHS. OVERALL THE 10/04 00Z
GFS LOOKS WAY TO COOL AS IT EXTENDS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO OUR
REGION. ON THE OTHER HAND THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS LOOK TO WARM. THE
LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WENT WARMER WITH TWO THIRDS EMPHASIS PLACED
ON THE MET AND ECMWF. TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH BOTH
SURFACE AND SOIL TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION EVEN WITH CALM WINDS ATTM
FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY (35-40)(40`S ELSEWHERE).IT SHOULD
BE POINTED OUT IF THE FORECAST TRENDS COOLER THEN THE FROST THREAT
WOULD INCREASE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: WE WILL SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNTIED STATES. THE RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE MAV/MET AND
10/04 00Z GFS LOOK TO COOL GIVEN MODELED 925 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND
11C WHICH WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOW 70`S FOR PHL SE AND COOLER
NW. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 20 MPH TO BE TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE DECAYING AS IT TRIES TO FIGHT OFF THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST
LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE.HOWEVER, INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE THREAT
FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL LIKELY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIGHTER
TEMPERATURES SPREAD AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE MAV/MET IN
THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT : THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE REGION RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECT ANOTHER
SEASONAL DAY. LOWS A BIT WARMER GIVEN MORNING CLOUDS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ON THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS LIKELY TO KEEP A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES FOR MOST OF THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WILL FINALLY KICK OUT IN THIS PERIOD, RESULTING IN A
WARMER MORE ZONAL PATTERN. HOWEVER ONE MORE COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO
APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. QUITE
A TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF 10/04 00Z RUNS. RIGHT
NOW PREFER THE 00Z ECMWF OVERALL BUT DID NOT GO AS WARM GIVEN THE
MODEL DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
IFR CIGS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU RDG/ABE
AROUND 12-13Z, 13-15Z FOR THE PHILLY TERMINALS AND 15-17Z FOR
ACY/MIV. THE FRONT WILL BE MARKED BY A WIND SHIFT FROM S-SE TO W, AN
END TO THE SHOWERS AND IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST
20-25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT.
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS STRONG CAA ARRIVES. W-NW WINDS WILL RELAX TO BELOW 10 KT
AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CAUSE
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 10-15 KNOTS AT TIMES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. WEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS
WELL AS THE DELAWARE BAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE
BEEN GUSTING 20-25 KT SO FAR WHILE SEAS JUST OFFSHORE ARE 5-6 FT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER DE
BAY AND EARLY THIS AFTN IN THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. THESE WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KT, ESPECIALLY
THIS EVENING ONCE COLDER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES. THE WARMER WATER TEMPS
WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND AM CONCERNED
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING: WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SEAS AND
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING CLOSER TO SCA CRITERIA.
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOME INTERMITTENT 25 KNOT WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTH WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU 9 AM FOR THE
NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF THE MD CHESAPEAKE BAY. THE TIDAL GAGE AT
TOLCHESTER BEACH REACHED MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING AT AND JUST
AFTER HIGH TIDE EARLIER THIS MORNING. TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE STILL
AROUND 2.5 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL AT TOLCHESTER. THIS HAS OCCURRED
IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT PREVENTED WATER FROM
DRAINING THE BAY. HIGH TIDES OCCUR LATEST IN THE NORTHERN MOST
PART OF THE BAY IN CECIL COUNTY AT AROUND 7 AM.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND
THE LOWER DELAWARE RIVER. POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE AROUND 2
FT AT SHIP JOHN SHOALS AND REEDY POINT, WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO
WATER LEVELS PEAKING AT ADVISORY THRESHOLD. HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 7 AND 9 AM FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
WE MAY ALSO NEED TO ISSUE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FARTHER UP
THE DELAWARE RIVER TOWARD PHILADELPHIA AND BURLINGTON COUNTIES.
HIGH TIDE DOESN`T OCCUR UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING UP THERE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO SEE IF ANOMALIES GO
DOWN AT ALL.
ALONG THE COAST,THE ASTRONOMICAL CONTRIBUTION TO THE TOTAL TIDE
LEVEL WILL BE A LITTLE LESS THIS MORNING FOR HIGH TIDE, SO FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE IN THE DELAWARE BAY AND ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THEN FOR THE NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE COAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS SHOULD BE OFFSHORE IN A POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT, SO TOTAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ016-
021.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008-
012-015.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ019-
020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
417 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY
TONIGHT. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THEN GIVE WAY TO A COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A POTENT UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING. A SATELLITE LOOP OF WATER VAPOR NICELY SHOWS THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFYING AND ACQUIRING A NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE
MS VALLEY AS A VORT MAX DIGS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.
AT THE SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED NEAR THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE APPALACHIANS AT 07Z. DEEP SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT IS TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE EAST COAST. A
CONNECTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC AND GULF OF MEXICO
CAN ALSO BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING. USING THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE, THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP
WILL OCCUR WITH THE COLD FRONT AND REACH THE WESTERN ZONES OF THE
CWA AROUND 10 OR 11 AM. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, ENDING NEAR PHILLY AROUND MIDDAY AND
LOCATIONS NEAR THE PASSAIC RIVER DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. PRECIP
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN ONE-HALF
INCH. HOWEVER, HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW RAIN
BAND TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ALONG THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES THE
COAST. A BRIEF HEAVY SHOWER OR EVEN THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS BAND LATER THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT,
AND WITH A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH, THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FRONT WILL STILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A 999 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT IN NEW ENGLAND
AND 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
STRONG OVER OUR REGION.
SIGNIFICANT CAA WILL ALLOW NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER TO PREVENT
DECOUPLING AND FOR THE WESTERLY WIND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WILL LIKELY SEE COLD AIR STRATOCU OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE EVENING
UNTIL MUCH DRIER AIR REACHES THE AREA AND ERODES THE LINGERING
CLOUDS. THE 0C 850 MB TEMPS MAKES ITS TRIUMPHANT RETURN TO THE AREA
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 30S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST NJ AND
NORTHEAST PA. THESE AIR TEMPS WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST
FORMATION BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND WARM GROUND TEMPS WILL
MAKE THE SETUP FOR FROST UNFAVORABLE. MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA INCLUDING ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: WE WILL BE IN A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT DRY. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO START IN
THIS PERIOD WILL COMPLETE AN IMPRESSIVE PLUMMET AND THIS WILL
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH THE COOLEST DAY IN A WHILE. MANY
LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 FOR HIGHS. OVERALL THE 10/04 00Z
GFS LOOKS WAY TO COOL AS IT EXTENDS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO OUR
REGION. ON THE OTHER HAND THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS LOOK TO WARM. THE
LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WENT WARMER WITH TWO THIRDS EMPHASIS PLACED
ON THE MET AND ECMWF. TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH BOTH
SURFACE AND SOIL TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION EVEN WITH CALM WINDS ATTM
FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY (35-40)(40`S ELSEWHERE).IT SHOULD
BE POINTED OUT IF THE FORECAST TRENDS COOLER THEN THE FROST THREAT
WOULD INCREASE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: WE WILL SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNTIED STATES. THE RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE MAV/MET AND
10/04 00Z GFS LOOK TO COOL GIVEN MODELED 925 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND
11C WHICH WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOW 70`S FOR PHL SE AND COOLER
NW. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 20 MPH TO BE TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE DECAYING AS IT TRIES TO FIGHT OFF THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST
LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE.HOWEVER, INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE THREAT
FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL LIKELY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIGHTER
TEMPERATURES SPREAD AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE MAV/MET IN
THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT : THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE REGION RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECT ANOTHER
SEASONAL DAY. LOWS A BIT WARMER GIVEN MORNING CLOUDS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ON THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS LIKELY TO KEEP A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES FOR MOST OF THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WILL FINALLY KICK OUT IN THIS PERIOD, RESULTING IN A
WARMER MORE ZONAL PATTERN. HOWEVER ONE MORE COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO
APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. QUITE
A TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF 10/04 00Z RUNS. RIGHT
NOW PREFER THE 00Z ECMWF OVERALL BUT DID NOT GO AS WARM GIVEN THE
MODEL DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
IFR CIGS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU RDG/ABE
AROUND 12-13Z, 13-15Z FOR THE PHILLY TERMINALS AND 15-17Z FOR
ACY/MIV. THE FRONT WILL BE MARKED BY A WIND SHIFT FROM S-SE TO W, AN
END TO THE SHOWERS AND IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST
20-25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT.
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS STRONG CAA ARRIVES. W-NW WINDS WILL RELAX TO BELOW 10 KT
AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CAUSE
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 10-15 KNOTS AT TIMES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. WEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS
WELL AS THE DELAWARE BAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE
BEEN GUSTING 20-25 KT SO FAR WHILE SEAS JUST OFFSHORE ARE 5-6 FT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER DE
BAY AND EARLY THIS AFTN IN THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. THESE WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KT, ESPECIALLY
THIS EVENING ONCE COLDER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES. THE WARMER WATER TEMPS
WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND AM CONCERNED
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING: WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SEAS AND
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING CLOSER TO SCA CRITERIA.
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOME INTERMITTENT 25 KNOT WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTH WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008-
012-015.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ019-
020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
810 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
.UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT)...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD BUT DEEP LONGWAVE
TROUGHING IS NOW IN CONTROL OF MUCH OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER...OTHER
THAN COOL TEMPERATURES...THERE IS NOT MUCH "WEATHER" GOING ON ACROSS
THE COUNTRY THIS EVENING. THE FLORIDA PENINSULA RESIDES ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH CIRCULATION UNDER A VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN PER WV IMAGERY AND 06/00Z KTBW SOUNDING. OUR PW
FROM THE SOUNDING THIS EVENING IS STILL VERY LOW FOR EARLY OCTOBER
WITH A CALCULATED VALUE OF ONLY AROUND 0.5". IT WAS LITTLE DOUBT OF
THE DRYNESS OF THE COLUMN WITH VIRTUALLY ZERO CLOUDS IN THE SKY FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. BEGINNING TO SEE THE HIGHEST LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
FORM OF CIRRUS BUILD BACK IN TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THE MID/LOWER LEVELS WILL STAY DRY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING AND IS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO LIKELY ALLOW FOR A DECOUPLING AND GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NATURE COAST. OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
MAY BE REMOVED JUST ENOUGH FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO STAY SLIGHTLY
MIXED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT EITHER WAY IT WILL BE A COOL NIGHT
FOR ALL. BY SUNRISE IN THE MORNING...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD SHOW
WIDESPREAD 40S TO THE NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND 50S FURTHER
SOUTH. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PINELLAS COUNTY
AND AREAS AROUND CHARLOTTE HARBOR WILL HOLD IN THE LOWER 60S WITH A
LIGHT NE WIND OFF AN OCEAN SURFACE. ENJOY THE REST OF YOUR SUNDAY
EVENING AND HAVE A GREAT MONDAY EVERYONE!
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY...WITH RIDGING REMAINING THE DOMINANT
WEATHER INFLUENCE ON THE LOCAL AREA. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...BUT WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUD IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET ALLOWS
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS TO OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
STATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT FROM WHAT WAS SEEN
TODAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 80S ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES
AND IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCALES.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE MOVES EASTWARD PRODUCING
PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST LESS THAN 15 KNOTS FOR TONIGHT AND VEER EASTERLY
AND FURTHER DECREASE ON MONDAY. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO ABATE
REMAINING LESS THAN 3 FEET DURING THE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ALSO WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS BY MID WEEK. NO HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 59 82 69 87 / 0 0 0 10
FMY 62 85 69 88 / 0 0 10 20
GIF 58 83 66 87 / 0 0 0 10
SRQ 58 83 67 87 / 0 0 0 10
BKV 45 83 60 87 / 0 0 0 10
SPG 65 82 71 87 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...MROCZKA
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...JELSEMA
MARINE...WYNN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
950 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
...UNFAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND...
...NEAR RECORD LOWS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS...
TODAY...CONVECTION OCCURRING WITH PRE FRONTAL TROUGH HAS BEEN
WEAKENING AS IT TRAVERSES THE PENINSULA AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
THIS MORNING WITH A DIMINISHING AREA OF SHOWERS AFFECTING SOUTHERN
SECTIONS. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE SHOWERS/DEBRIS
CLOUDS DIMINISH AND ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS BEFORE THE ACTUAL FRONT APPROACHES. THE HRRR MODEL DOES NOT
GENERATE MUCH CONVECTION AFTER THE DECAYING CONVECTION MOVES AWAY
FROM SOUTHERN SECTIONS. THE LOCAL WRF MODEL DOES SHOW SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COUNTIES AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THAT IS WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS...SO WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES THERE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN
THE NORTH RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING...THEN DRIER AIR WILL
START FILTERING IN. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD THERE TOO.
&&
.AVIATION...
VERY MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ALLOWING FOR A FEW
PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS. EXPECT LOCAL CEILINGS TO LIFT TO MVFR BY
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AT INTERIOR/NORTHERN TERMINALS AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR SHORTLY AFTER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH. EXPECT A CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY
KVRB-KFPR-KSUA ONCE CLOUDS DIMINISH...APPROXIMATELY 18-21Z AHEAD OF
THE FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION LOOKS GOOD.
TODAY...COOL FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS DURING
THE DAY CLEARING THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BOATING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TODAY AND
BECOME HAZARDOUS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 7 FEET ON NORTH WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS. SO HAVE RAISED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE GULF STREAM NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET
THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SUN...NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE AND SEAS 6-7
FEET IN THE GULF STREAM EXPECTED INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER
WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN BEGIN TO RELAX INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 5 FEET OFFSHORE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
LAST TIME TEMPS WERE BELOW 60 DEGREES...
DAB...MAY 18 (57)
MCO...APR 22 (57)
MLB...MAY 17 (59)
VRB...MAY 22 (59)
FPR...MAY 22 (57)
RECORD LOWS...
BEST CHANCE TO TIE OR BREAK LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL BE AT
DAYTONA BEACH BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. HOWEVER CURRENT
FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AT THE OTHER CLIMATE SITES WILL
ALSO BE CLOSE...GENERALLY WITHIN 2 TO 3 DEGREES.
10/05 10/06
DAYTONA BEACH 58 (1987) 57 (2010)
ORLANDO 56 (1929) 57 (1921)
MELBOURNE 59 (1938) 60 (1980)
VERO BEACH 60 (1987) 60 (1980)
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WEATHER...BLOTTMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1013 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
214 PM CDT
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE IDENTIFYING AND TIMING INDIVIDUAL
SHORT WAVE FEATURES IN PROLONGED NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER IMPACTS.
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MASSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH
AMERICA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE CENTER OF A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW
WOBBLING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND BREAKS DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WHICH EVENTUALLY HELPS OUR NEARLY STATIONARY CANADIAN CLOSED
LOW TO MOVE MORE DECISIVELY EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
UPPER FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA THUS BECOMES SOMEWHAT FLATTER BY
MID-WEEK...WHILE RETAINING A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ALSO IN THIS PROCESS...CURRENT TROPICAL STORM SIMON GETS
ABSORBED AS A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY SUB-TROPICAL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES.
LOCALLY...OUR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MODULATED A SERIES OF RELATIVELY SMALL AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS RIPPLING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
TIMING THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES AND THEIR
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. THE FIRST OF THESE
WAS PROPAGATING FROM CENTRAL IL INTO INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MAINLY MID-CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OR SO
OF COUNTIES. THESE SPRINKLES SHOULD MOVE LARGELY EAST INTO INDIANA
BY EVENING. ANOTHER QUICK-MOVING SHORT WAVE WAS NOTED IN GOES VAPOR
IMAGERY DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THIS TOO IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS IA AND CENTRAL IL LATER TONIGHT
WHILE YET ANOTHER CIRCULATION IN THE TWIN CITIES VICINITY PASSES TO
OUR NORTH. THIS PRESENTS ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A SECOND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
REFLECTION AND MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT NOTED IN THE 290-300 K
LAYER. TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS DO NOT SHOW OVERLY IMPRESSIVE SATURATION
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THOUGH GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
SQUEEZING OUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP LIKELY
LINGERING INTO MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS THE SHORT
WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER FAST DIGGING SHORT WAVE IS DEPICTED
DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATER MONDAY NIGHT...WITH CLOUDS
AND LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES AGAIN DEVELOPING AND SWEEPING ACROSS THE
CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND WITH BETTER CHANCE POPS
GENERALLY TO THE EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS AS THE DEEP LOW TO OUR NORTH FINALLY BEGINS
TO SHIFT TO THE EAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT DOES ALLOW A
BIT OF A WARMING TREND THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH HIGHS FROM UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S MONDAY RISING TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S TUESDAY. WITH A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA...TEMPS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE COOLER IN TH 60-65
RANGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
40S...THOUGH A COUPLE OF OUR TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS MAY DIP TO THE
UPPER 30S ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO MAXIMIZE RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AS NOTED ABOVE...AS UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES SOMEWHAT
FLATTER AND MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY...WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON EVENTUALLY WORKS
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY. WHILE THE UPPER
TROUGH TENDS TO HANG BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
IN LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IN BRINGING A PORTION OF THIS ENERGY AND
MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
RENEWED PUSH OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM JET AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MAY AID IN SPREADING PRECIP AS FAR NORTH AS THE
IL/WI BORDER THURSDAY...BEFORE THE BETTER FOCUS ALONG THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE TO OUR SOUTH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGING THE THREAT OF RAIN BACK INTO THE
AREA. DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS DEVELOP IN THE HANDLING OF THIS
SYSTEM BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS...WITH THE 00/12Z
ECMWF RUNS DECIDEDLY STRONGER WITH TROUGHING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON SUNDAY. WHILE CONFIDENCE LOWER WITH SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE
BY DAY 7...HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT SUNDAY AS A NOD TO
THE ECMWF WHICH IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUN.
TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED REMAIN COOLER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY/MID
OCTOBER...WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE INDICATING 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR
HIGHS AND UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S FOR MINS.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* MEDIUM FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD.
* MEDIUM FOR SHRA TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...LOW FOR TIMING.
* LOW FOR MVFR CIGS MONDAY MORNING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 03Z...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND
ARE SPREADING EAST/SOUTHEAST. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT IN
THE SHORT TERM SO OPTED TO REMAIN DRY IN THIS UPDATE BUT AS TRENDS
EMERGE...VFR SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE
TAFS. CMS
PREVIOUS 00Z DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. ITS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS PRIOR TO THE INDICATED 07Z-09Z BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING
HOW SOON PRECIP MAY ARRIVE OR DEVELOP IS LOW. AS THE LOW LEVELS
SATURATE...SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING.
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10KTS TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN BEGIN TO GUST AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
INTO THE LOWER 20KT RANGE POSSIBLE THRU SUNSET. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* MEDIUM FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD.
* MEDIUM FOR SHRA TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...LOW FOR TIMING.
* LOW FOR MVFR CIGS MONDAY MORNING. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
* WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR.
* THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
* FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DRY/VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
208 PM CDT
A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW MEANDERS AROUND
NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH MIDWEEK. BRISK SWLY-WLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL UNTIL THE LOW KICKS OUT TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY. WHILE GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME...THERE
WILL BE PERIODS WHEN WINDS WILL REACH ARND 30KT...ESPECIALLY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DROP OUT OF CANADA AND SPREAD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BUILD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH HIGH PLAINS...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OUT OF CANADA. BY FRIDAY...THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGIONS.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
851 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014
Short-wave trough currently evident on water vapor imagery over
the Plains has spread showers as far east as Omaha and Kansas City
as of mid-evening. HRRR continues to show the showers spreading
eastward into west-central Illinois by around midnight, then
further east to the Indiana border overnight. 00z KILX upper air
sounding shows a pronounced dry layer below 800mb, so any precip
that occurs will be quite light and may tend to be slower to
arrive than the models forecast. Will therefore continue to go
with a dry forecast this evening, followed by chance PoPs
overnight. Thanks to increasing clouds and precip, low
temperatures will be warmer than previous nights, with lows
remaining in the middle to upper 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014
Weak showers ahead of a shortwave have exited most of the CWA as of
2 pm except along the Indiana border. Latest surface map shows the
associated surface reflection between the Mississippi and Illinois
River valleys, and this should move through the CWA the remainder of
the afternoon.
Main focus for tonight is with potential for additional showers, as
another shortwave currently in South Dakota rotates into the Midwest
as part of the broad upper trough that covers much of the east 2/3
of the nation. High-resolution models bring an area of showers into
the western CWA quickly after about 1-2 am, with the areas northwest
of the Illinois River already drying out by sunrise. Have increased
PoP`s in most areas in the 09-12Z time frame, although rainfall
amounts are still looking to be minor.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014
There remains model consensus that the longwave trough will remain
in place across the eastern CONUS into Wednesday, and then begin to
shift eastward. However, there are varying solutions on the timing
and intensity of the various shortwaves that are projected to rotate
through the trough during that time. The strongest wave is now
projected for late tonight and Monday morning, which is about 6
hours faster than previous model solutions. Some adjustments were
made for that potential, with reduced PoPs by mid-day on Monday west
of I-57. Thunder potential was left in the forecast Monday afternoon
due to steep lapse rates, mainly south of a line from Rushville to
Lincoln to Champaign.
Another wave appears to affect central IL later Monday night into
Tuesday morning with another quick shot of showers or sprinkles. The
potential for measurable rain from the showers with those first two
waves is low. Most areas that do see rain may only get trace
amounts, or below `slight chance` PoP levels. For now will continue
with low chance and slight chance PoPs in the Mon-Tue time frame to
show that showers will be possible.
Guidance numbers from the NAM seem to be overdoing a brief warm-up
on Tuesday ahead of the surface front. With clouds and showers in
place for the morning and clearing not expected until after peak
heating, will trim highs at or below guidance.
Wednesday looks to be a dry day for now as the upper trough slides
east, heights rise aloft and surface high pressure builds into
Illinois. The typical warming associated with height rises aloft
will be counter-acted by the cold air with the surface high, so
overall the temps will cool down Wed into Thursday.
For Thursday, the remnants of Simon may come into play for our
forecast, as the moisture and wave energy get drawn into the
quasi-zonal flow from the southwest toward southern IL. The GFS is
the most progressive with that scenario, while the ECMWF seems to
stall the energy back over the Plains, but still send the moisture
eastward toward Illinois.
Models typically have a poor handle on the progression of tropical
systems once they come on land, so will not make significant changes
in the forecast. Will be keeping the likely and high chance PoPs
focused on Thursday for showers and isolated thunderstorms as the
remnants of Simon possible reach IL.
Beyond that, the GFS brings high pressure with reinforcing cool air
through next Sunday. Meanwhile the ECMWF finally ejects the wave
energy from Simon into IL on Sunday, with additional Gulf moisture
in tow and creates a wet scenario for the last half of next weekend.
The extended blend was influenced by the ECMWF enough for chance
PoPs to remain for Sat night/Sunday for now.
Overall, temps will remain below seasonal normals over the next
week, with Tuesday possibly the warmest day with highs possibly
reaching around 70. Otherwise, 50s and 60s will prevail for highs
through next Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014
Weak area of low pressure located just west of KCMI will track off
to the east this evening, allowing skies to partially clear for a
few hours before another fast-moving short-wave approaches from
the northwest overnight. Next wave in question is currently
triggering clouds and a few light showers across South
Dakota/Nebraska/western Iowa. Most high-res model guidance
suggests these clouds/showers will spread across central Illinois
after midnight. Based on model guidance and satellite timing
tools, have introduced VCSH at KPIA by 08z, then further east to
KCMI by 10z. Once this wave passes, skies will once again
partially clear and winds will veer to the west Tuesday morning.
Forecast soundings indicate gusts of around 20kt, strongest across
east-central Illinois. While weak synoptic subsidence will be in
place behind the departing wave, steep lapse rates will lead to
diurnal clouds Tuesday afternoon. Cu-rule suggests mainly SCT
cloud cover, with BKN ceilings along/north of the I-74 terminals.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
140 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER FLOW WILL
THEN FLATTEN OUT AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN CLOSER TO
NORMAL...BUT SYSTEMS MOVING ALONG IN THE FLOW WILL KEEP THE THREAT
OF RAIN AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING SOME SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...BUT
DO NOT BE FOOLED. THE SUN IS DOING LITTLE TO WARM TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA ONLY IN THE LOW 40S AS
OF 1330Z.
AREA OF STRATOCU ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LOW ALREADY EXPANDING INTO THE NORTHERN WABASH
VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL ENABLE CLOUDS TO QUICKLY FILL BACK IN OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL ACCOMPANY THE
DISTURBANCE ALOFT AS WELL...FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH LATE DAY.
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES COMBINED WITH SUBTLE INSTABILITY
SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR ICE PELLETS TO MIX IN WITH LIGHT RAIN
OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES TODAY. CHANCES LOOK LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP
OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.
OTHER CHANGE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE IS TO LOWER HIGHS BY A COUPLE
DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. RAP SURFACE TEMPS AND CURRENT LAMP DATA
BOTH SUPPORT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAY STILL SEE TEMPS
TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S OVER THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY WHERE MORE
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. COULD BE A CLOSE CALL FOR THE DAILY RECORD LOW
MAX AT KIND...49 DEGREES FROM 1885. BRISK WESTERLY WINDS WILL
EXACERBATE THE RAW CONDITIONS ALL DAY.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED FOR MOST ITEMS.
MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS ONE UPPER IMPULSE
EXITS THE AREA BUT ANOTHER APPROACHES. WITH PERHAPS SOME WEAK LIFT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT IMPULSE INTERACTING WITH THIS MOISTURE EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT.
THE CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME WIND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
BOTTOMING OUT. THUS EXPECT READINGS TO STAY ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK...AND THE WINDS SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD FROST FROM FORMING. WILL
MENTION PATCHY FROST SINCE SOME COULD FORM IN SHELTERED AREAS...BUT
WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORY PRODUCTS FOR TONIGHT.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT A FEW IMPULSES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
UPPER TROUGH. THESE WILL INTERACT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES. WILL GO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
AT THE MOMENT THE IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST OF THESE WILL IMPACT THE
AREA MONDAY...SO WENT HIGHEST POPS THEN.
FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ON...MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM FOR HIGHS GIVEN
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET MOS FOR HIGHS.
FOR LOWS GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
ONTARIO ON TUESDAY AND TO JAMES BAY TUESDAY NIGHT. IT DOES...A
TROUGH WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND FORCE A COLD
FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH
A MOIST ATMOSPHERE TO TRIGGER SHOWERS THAT WILL BE ENDING TUESDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AFTER A DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES AND RESULT IN MORE SHOWER CHANCES BY THURSDAY.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
PER REGIONAL BLEND LOOK GOOD FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 04/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 104 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
WIDESPREAD STRATOCU IS IMPACTING TAF SITES AS UPPER LOW ROTATES
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE AT VFR
CATEGORY AND WILL REMAIN THERE FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE FALLING NORTH AND EAST OF TAF SITES...BUT
TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SO...NO MENTION OF PRECIP IN TAFS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 14 TO 19 KTS...GUSTING TO 26 KTS.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF
6 TO 10 KTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TDUD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1019 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER FLOW WILL
THEN FLATTEN OUT AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN CLOSER TO
NORMAL...BUT SYSTEMS MOVING ALONG IN THE FLOW WILL KEEP THE THREAT
OF RAIN AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING SOME SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...BUT
DO NOT BE FOOLED. THE SUN IS DOING LITTLE TO WARM TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA ONLY IN THE LOW 40S AS
OF 1330Z.
AREA OF STRATOCU ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LOW ALREADY EXPANDING INTO THE NORTHERN WABASH
VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL ENABLE CLOUDS TO QUICKLY FILL BACK IN OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL ACCOMPANY THE
DISTURBANCE ALOFT AS WELL...FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH LATE DAY.
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES COMBINED WITH SUBTLE INSTABILITY
SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR ICE PELLETS TO MIX IN WITH LIGHT RAIN
OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES TODAY. CHANCES LOOK LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP
OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.
OTHER CHANGE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE IS TO LOWER HIGHS BY A COUPLE
DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. RAP SURFACE TEMPS AND CURRENT LAMP DATA
BOTH SUPPORT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAY STILL SEE TEMPS
TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S OVER THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY WHERE MORE
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. COULD BE A CLOSE CALL FOR THE DAILY RECORD LOW
MAX AT KIND...49 DEGREES FROM 1885. BRISK WESTERLY WINDS WILL
EXACERBATE THE RAW CONDITIONS ALL DAY.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED FOR MOST ITEMS.
MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS ONE UPPER IMPULSE
EXITS THE AREA BUT ANOTHER APPROACHES. WITH PERHAPS SOME WEAK LIFT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT IMPULSE INTERACTING WITH THIS MOISTURE EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT.
THE CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME WIND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
BOTTOMING OUT. THUS EXPECT READINGS TO STAY ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK...AND THE WINDS SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD FROST FROM FORMING. WILL
MENTION PATCHY FROST SINCE SOME COULD FORM IN SHELTERED AREAS...BUT
WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORY PRODUCTS FOR TONIGHT.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT A FEW IMPULSES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
UPPER TROUGH. THESE WILL INTERACT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES. WILL GO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
AT THE MOMENT THE IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST OF THESE WILL IMPACT THE
AREA MONDAY...SO WENT HIGHEST POPS THEN.
FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ON...MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM FOR HIGHS GIVEN
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET MOS FOR HIGHS.
FOR LOWS GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
ONTARIO ON TUESDAY AND TO JAMES BAY TUESDAY NIGHT. IT DOES...A
TROUGH WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND FORCE A COLD
FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH
A MOIST ATMOSPHERE TO TRIGGER SHOWERS THAT WILL BE ENDING TUESDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AFTER A DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES AND RESULT IN MORE SHOWER CHANCES BY THURSDAY.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
PER REGIONAL BLEND LOOK GOOD FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 04/1500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
UPDATE...
INCREASED WIND GUSTS AT KIND.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH
PIVOTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND VFR CU STREAMS SOUTH IN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH. COULD BE BRIEF
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING...BUT MORE CU SHOULD MOVE WITH THE NEXT
IMPULSE. WOULD NOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS AT IND AND
LAF...BUT COVERAGE TOO LOW TO MENTION.
WINDS WILL BE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING
AND TO NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 23Z WITH SUNSET.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK/TDUD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
948 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER FLOW WILL
THEN FLATTEN OUT AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN CLOSER TO
NORMAL...BUT SYSTEMS MOVING ALONG IN THE FLOW WILL KEEP THE THREAT
OF RAIN AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING SOME SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...BUT
DO NOT BE FOOLED. THE SUN IS DOING LITTLE TO WARM TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA ONLY IN THE LOW 40S AS
OF 1330Z.
AREA OF STRATOCU ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LOW ALREADY EXPANDING INTO THE NORTHERN WABASH
VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL ENABLE CLOUDS TO QUICKLY FILL BACK IN OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL ACCOMPANY THE
DISTURBANCE ALOFT AS WELL...FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH LATE DAY.
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES COMBINED WITH SUBTLE INSTABILITY
SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR ICE PELLETS TO MIX IN WITH LIGHT RAIN
OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES TODAY. CHANCES LOOK LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP
OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.
OTHER CHANGE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE IS TO LOWER HIGHS BY A COUPLE
DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. RAP SURFACE TEMPS AND CURRENT LAMP DATA
BOTH SUPPORT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAY STILL SEE TEMPS
TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S OVER THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY WHERE MORE
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. COULD BE A CLOSE CALL FOR THE DAILY RECORD LOW
MAX AT KIND...49 DEGREES FROM 1885. BRISK WESTERLY WINDS WILL
EXACERBATE THE RAW CONDITIONS ALL DAY.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED FOR MOST ITEMS.
MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS ONE UPPER IMPULSE
EXITS THE AREA BUT ANOTHER APPROACHES. WITH PERHAPS SOME WEAK LIFT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT IMPULSE INTERACTING WITH THIS MOISTURE EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT.
THE CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME WIND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
BOTTOMING OUT. THUS EXPECT READINGS TO STAY ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK...AND THE WINDS SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD FROST FROM FORMING. WILL
MENTION PATCHY FROST SINCE SOME COULD FORM IN SHELTERED AREAS...BUT
WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORY PRODUCTS FOR TONIGHT.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT A FEW IMPULSES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
UPPER TROUGH. THESE WILL INTERACT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES. WILL GO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
AT THE MOMENT THE IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST OF THESE WILL IMPACT THE
AREA MONDAY...SO WENT HIGHEST POPS THEN.
FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ON...MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM FOR HIGHS GIVEN
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET MOS FOR HIGHS.
FOR LOWS GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
ONTARIO ON TUESDAY AND TO JAMES BAY TUESDAY NIGHT. IT DOES...A
TROUGH WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND FORCE A COLD
FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH
A MOIST ATMOSPHERE TO TRIGGER SHOWERS THAT WILL BE ENDING TUESDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AFTER A DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES AND RESULT IN MORE SHOWER CHANCES BY THURSDAY.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
PER REGIONAL BLEND LOOK GOOD FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 041200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH
PIVOTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND VFR CU STREAMS SOUTH IN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH. COULD BE BRIEF
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING...BUT MORE CU SHOULD MOVE WITH THE NEXT
IMPULSE. WOULD NOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS AT IND AND
LAF...BUT COVERAGE TOO LOW TO MENTION.
WINDS WILL BE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING
AND TO NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 23Z WITH SUNSET.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1233 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 736 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014
RADAR TRENDS THE PAST 90 MINUTES SHOW A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION. RAP TRENDS INDICATE THE OVERALL FORCING WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING BRINGING AN EARLIER END TO
THE PRECIPITATION. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS/CO-OP REPORTS THE
PRECIPITATION IS MORE OF A MIX NOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014
MORE OBSERVATION SITES ARE REPORTING LIGHT SNOW...UNKNOWN PRECIP
OR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO
BETTER FIT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. RADAR DOES SHOW A POCKET OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF THE KCID AREA TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 453 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014
LIGHT SNOW IS NOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. A
FEW FLAKES OF SNOW HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT THE OFFICE SO THE RADAR
RETURNS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE METRO AREA MINIMALLY HAVE
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS SEVERAL WEAK TROFS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MIDWEST WITH 40S AND HIGHER FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014
RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN THAT WAS MOVING INTO NORTHEAST
IOWA. SEVERAL SITES INDICATE PURE SNOW FALLING WITH THE NEAREST SITE
BEING KDEH.
THE FORCING SUPPORTING THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA IN
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND OVERSPREAD ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN END
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID DAY.
THE DRYNESS OF THE OVERALL AIR WILL COOL THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS COOLING WILL RESULT IN A
RAIN/SNOW MIX THAN CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S SO ANY SNOW WILL MELT ON CONTACT.
AIR TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO ABOVE FREEZING SO NO ACCUMULATION WILL BE
SEEN ON ELEVATED SURFACES.
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE AFTER SUNRISE AND SLOW MIX WITH
AND CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN BEFORE ENDING AROUND MID DAY. CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH ONLY
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLD TEMPERATURES
AND LIGHTER WINDS DO BRING UP THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST LATE
TONIGHT FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-80.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014
MOST OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW MEANDERING ABOUT WESTERN ONTARIO PROVINCE THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD... WITH A FEW BOUTS OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE SHUTTLED DOWN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW. TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES AND SUBSEQUENT PCPN CHANCES
REMAINS ONE OF THE BIGGEST CHALLENGES GIVEN POOR MODEL CONSISTENCY.
BLENDED APPROACH HIGHLIGHTS MONDAY AND LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS MAIN WINDOWS OF ANY RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN NORTHWEST FLOW
ANY RAIN AMOUNTS MOSTLY SPOTTY AND LIGHT. THE QUESTION TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK IS EVENTUAL TRACK OF HURRICANE SIMON REMNANTS AND
WHETHER OR NOT THEY INTERACT WITH FRONTAL ZONE TO BRING BETTER RAIN
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE LIFTING ABOVE MVFR LEVELS AS OF 18Z
TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT TONIGHT. WHILE THE AIR WILL BE COLD...WE WILL SEE WINDS
SLOWLY DECREASE UNDER 10 KTS BY SUNSET TONIGHT...WITH A GENERAL
BACKING TO WEST EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE SOUTH OF
IOWA. AFTER 06Z/05 WIDESPREAD MID CLOUDS ABOVE 8000 FT WILL SPREAD
IN FROM THE WEST AS WARM AIR BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ANY TIME DURING
THE PERIOD.
ERVIN
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...ERVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
738 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 736 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014
RADAR TRENDS THE PAST 90 MINUTES SHOW A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION. RAP TRENDS INDICATE THE OVERALL FORCING WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING BRINGING AN EARLIER END TO
THE PRECIPITATION. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS/CO-OP REPORTS THE
PRECIPITATION IS MORE OF A MIX NOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014
MORE OBSERVATION SITES ARE REPORTING LIGHT SNOW...UNKNOWN PRECIP
OR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO
BETTER FIT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. RADAR DOES SHOW A POCKET OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF THE KCID AREA TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 453 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014
LIGHT SNOW IS NOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. A
FEW FLAKES OF SNOW HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT THE OFFICE SO THE RADAR
RETURNS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE METRO AREA MINIMALLY HAVE
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS SEVERAL WEAK TROFS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MIDWEST WITH 40S AND HIGHER FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014
RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN THAT WAS MOVING INTO NORTHEAST
IOWA. SEVERAL SITES INDICATE PURE SNOW FALLING WITH THE NEAREST SITE
BEING KDEH.
THE FORCING SUPPORTING THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA IN
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND OVERSPREAD ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN END
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID DAY.
THE DRYNESS OF THE OVERALL AIR WILL COOL THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS COOLING WILL RESULT IN A
RAIN/SNOW MIX THAN CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S SO ANY SNOW WILL MELT ON CONTACT.
AIR TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO ABOVE FREEZING SO NO ACCUMULATION WILL BE
SEEN ON ELEVATED SURFACES.
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE AFTER SUNRISE AND SLOW MIX WITH
AND CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN BEFORE ENDING AROUND MID DAY. CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH ONLY
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLD TEMPERATURES
AND LIGHTER WINDS DO BRING UP THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST LATE
TONIGHT FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-80.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014
MOST OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW MEANDERING ABOUT WESTERN ONTARIO PROVINCE THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD... WITH A FEW BOUTS OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE SHUTTLED DOWN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW. TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES AND SUBSEQUENT PCPN CHANCES
REMAINS ONE OF THE BIGGEST CHALLENGES GIVEN POOR MODEL CONSISTENCY.
BLENDED APPROACH HIGHLIGHTS MONDAY AND LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS MAIN WINDOWS OF ANY RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN NORTHWEST FLOW
ANY RAIN AMOUNTS MOSTLY SPOTTY AND LIGHT. THE QUESTION TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK IS EVENTUAL TRACK OF HURRICANE SIMON REMNANTS AND
WHETHER OR NOT THEY INTERACT WITH FRONTAL ZONE TO BRING BETTER RAIN
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AT
KCID/KMLI/KBRL WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KDBQ. AREAS
THAT ARE MVFR WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR AFT 18Z/04. AFT 00Z/05
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH FROST POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE
SUNDAY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1003 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1002 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014
The difference between the model initialization and the low level
mandatory upper air fields is fairly wide this evening. For this
mid-evening update had to make some more dramatic changes with
respect to PoPs, weather, temperatures, dewpoints, etc...than
previously forecast.
Comparing both the explicit high resolution and medium range
guidance with mandatory level temperatures and dewpoints, the only
guidance that was even close was the ECMWF and SREF at 850 mb and
700 mb...with the 4km NAM-WRF closer at 925 mb. Most guidance too
dry or cool.
Shortly after 00z Monday, the 11-3.9 micron difference channel
picked up on a rapidly developing WNW-ESE band of mid-level
cumulus (most likely ACCAS). Between 01z-02z, elevated cores were
apparent on the KPAH, KHPX, KEVV radars.
Given the surface orientation of dewpoints at the surface, suspect
a focused zone of isentropic lift along with a developing elevated
frontal boundary. You could almost see a low amplitude baroclinic
leaf developing in the satellite imagery. The latest RAP and HRRR
guidance appear to handling this, with the ECMWF providing a gross
picture for convection for the rest of tonight.
A mention of thunderstorms was added to the MO bootheel and
Purchase Area of West Kentucky between KPOF and KCEY for later
tonight as more upright convection moves into play over the area.
Needless to say, the atmosphere has compensated much faster than
model guidance has anticipated with this next system.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014
Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014
A series of upper-level disturbances will lead to rather active
weather through Tuesday. Thankfully, there seems to be some
consensus amongst the 12Z model suite that allows for some much
needed detail to the PoP forecast through the period.
An initial disturbance is currently slipping by just northeast of
the area with a few light showers. Those showers should be well
east of the area in a couple of hours. Otherwise, very good
clearing is expected into the evening.
The next disturbance will spread south and east across the region
late tonight into Monday morning. There just isn`t much moisture
to work with, so figure there may be a few light showers or just
sprinkles. Low-level moisture should be increasing through the
day, and as a more significant trough arrives in the afternoon,
surface-based convection will be possible mainly over west
Kentucky by 21Z.
The NAM soundings show very steep low-level and mid-level lapse
rates and quite strong deep layer shear. This environment, if it
develops, would easily support supercells. The main issue will be
how far north low-level moisture return can make it. Conceivably it
could blow up to our south and never make into west Kentucky.
Also, we may get just enough to initiate convection, but not
enough to support it. Anyway, cannot dispute the day 2 slight risk
area, and if the moisture gets here, large hail, damaging winds
and possibly a few tornadoes will be possible.
The Monday afternoon activity will move south and east by early
evening, and much of the area will be dry through Midnight. The
next disturbance will pivot through the region late Monday night
into Tuesday. Low-level moisture will continue to increase, and
lower 60 dewpoints could make it to the southern half of the
region by early Tuesday. Steep lapse rates and strong shear will
be present again, but there will likely be a weak cold front,
more lift and better moisture to work with. Would not be at all
surprised to see more severe storms over west Kentucky Tuesday.
Given the forcing, it may be more linear, but severe is not at all
out of the question. Most of the convection should clear the area
by 00Z Wednesday, but will leave a slight chance in the far
southeast Tuesday evening just to give it a wide berth.
With all of the moving parts, did not stray far from consensus of
guidance for temperatures through the period.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014
On Wednesday, overall we expect dry conditions. However, models
show some lingering moisture across our far southern counties, so
kept just some slight pops for these areas. By Wednesday night into
Thursday, models are in good agreement lifting the front back
northward, leading to increased precipitation chances. They are
also in good agreement late Thursday into Thursday night, showing
low pressure moving along the front across the PAH forecast area.
This will lead to our best chances of significant precip, and with
models lining up well, went with likely pops for showers with a
chance of thunderstorms across our northern and western counties on
Thursday, and across all of our counties Thursday night.
Confidence drops off for Friday and beyond. GFS and GEM build high
pressure across the upper Mississippi valley, thus pushing the front
south away from our region. Previous and latest ECMWF keeps the
front just south of our region through Saturday and lingers precip
across our area. It then shows low pressure surging northeast
Sunday, spreading more precip across the area. Consensus is to keep
some low chance pops across the entire PAH fa through the weekend
for now.
Near seasonal temperatures area expected Wednesday into Thursday
night, then we should see a bit of a cool down Friday into the
weekend with the front south of the region and northerly winds.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 645 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014
With the approach of a system out of the plains, VFR cloudiness
will be on the increase overnight. Chances for showers will
increase after 18Z at all sites, with thunder chances at KCGI/KPAH
between 18-00Z. Southerly winds AOB 10 knots through 18Z, then
southwest to west at 8-10 knots with gusts up to 15 knots.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Smith
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1205 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2014
Another chilly fall day expected with well below average temperatures
and gusty WNW winds as the region remains locked in deep cyclonic
flow. Probably the biggest item of concern is the amount of cloud
cover today. Current trajectory of the thicker stratus across
eastern MN/northeast IA would be across northern/central Illinois.
Model low level RH progs suggest some diurnal cu across the
northeast quarter of the CWA, with the RAP more agressive with
both coverage and also bringing the cu further southeast into
eastern MO. I have given some weight to the RAP and have bumped up
the sky coverage from the previous forecast.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2014
A cold night on tap as the weak surface ridge now centered through
the high Plains slides across the area and results in gradually
backing surface winds. Warm advection aloft will get underway and
there will be an increase in mid/high clouds overnight in advance
of the next upstream NW flow disturbance. Just how low the
temperatures get tonight will be strongly based on the arrival of
the clouds. The main thrust of these looks through central and
northeast MO, while southern sections of the CWA will remain void
of clouds longer. I have mentioned patchy frost across the eastern
Ozarks into portions of southwest IL with this in mind, and due to
topography-drainage and lighter winds where I have mins in the mid
30s.
Sunday into Tuesday the forecast is a bit tricky thanks to a series
of NW flow disturbances traversing the region and associated weak
surface boundaries. The first of these on Sunday is accompanied by
a weak surface low/trof and trailing cold front with good low
level warm advection ahead of it. High temperatures should be
quite a bit warmer as a result. Some of the guidance is generating
light and spotty QPF with the ECMWF the most agressive. After
collaboration with neighboring offices, will hold off introducing
any pops and let the next shift get a fresher look. This initial
boundary then washes out with yet another disturbance and front
forecast to impact the area late Sunday night and into Monday.
This system will have a bit better moisture (albiet still limited) and
steep lapse rates to yield weak instability, thus I have added the
mention of thunder across the southeast half of the CWA on Monday
afternoon. Tuesday looks largely dry and warmer with average to
above average temperatures continuing into Thursday. Confidence in
the forecast diminishes Thursday into Friday with the GFS and
ECMWF and ensemble members exhibiting some rather large
differences.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2014
Looking at satellite loops it appears that the wrap around
stratocumulus cloud mass centered over the Great Lakes region will
remain northeast of the taf sites this afternoon, although there
is scattered diurnal cumulus clouds over our area. These clouds
should dissipate early this evening with loss of daytime heating.
The strong and gusty w-nwly surface winds will also diminish early
this evening and back around to a s-swly direction as the surface
pressure gradient relaxes and the surface high centered over
eastern TX and LA shifts eastward. Mid level cloudiness will
advect southeastward into the taf sites late tonight in an area of
warm air advection ahead of a weak northwest flow upper level
disturbance.
Specifics for KSTL: Just some scattered diurnal cumulus clouds
this afternoon at 4000-6000 feet, then mid level clouds will move
through STL late tonight and Sunday morning. Strong and gusty
w-nwly surface winds will diminish early this evening and back
around to a southwest direction this evening, and a southerly
direction by early Sunday morning. The surface wind will veer
around to a w-swly direction by late Sunday afternoon after the
passage of a weak surface trough.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
654 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2014
Another chilly fall day expected with well below average temperatures
and gusty WNW winds as the region remains locked in deep cyclonic
flow. Probably the biggest item of concern is the amount of cloud
cover today. Current trajectory of the thicker stratus across
eastern MN/northeast IA would be across northern/central Illinois.
Model low level RH progs suggest some diurnal cu across the
northeast quarter of the CWA, with the RAP more agressive with
both coverage and also bringing the cu further southeast into
eastern MO. I have given some weight to the RAP and have bumped up
the sky coverage from the previous forecast.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2014
A cold night on tap as the weak surface ridge now centered through
the high Plains slides across the area and results in gradually
backing surface winds. Warm advection aloft will get underway and
there will be an increase in mid/high clouds overnight in advance
of the next upstream NW flow disturbance. Just how low the
temperatures get tonight will be strongly based on the arrival of
the clouds. The main thrust of these looks through central and
northeast MO, while southern sections of the CWA will remain void
of clouds longer. I have mentioned patchy frost across the eastern
Ozarks into portions of southwest IL with this in mind, and due to
topography-drainage and lighter winds where I have mins in the mid
30s.
Sunday into Tuesday the forecast is a bit tricky thanks to a series
of NW flow disturbances traversing the region and associated weak
surface boundaries. The first of these on Sunday is accompanied by
a weak surface low/trof and trailing cold front with good low
level warm advection ahead of it. High temperatures should be
quite a bit warmer as a result. Some of the guidance is generating
light and spotty QPF with the ECMWF the most agressive. After
collaboration with neighboring offices, will hold off introducing
any pops and let the next shift get a fresher look. This initial
boundary then washes out with yet another disturbance and front
forecast to impact the area late Sunday night and into Monday.
This system will have a bit better moisture (albiet still limited) and
steep lapse rates to yield weak instability, thus I have added the
mention of thunder across the southeast half of the CWA on Monday
afternoon. Tuesday looks largely dry and warmer with average to
above average temperatures continuing into Thursday. Confidence in
the forecast diminishes Thursday into Friday with the GFS and
ECMWF and ensemble members exhibiting some rather large
differences.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 653 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2014
Forecast area remains in strong cyclonic flow. Some LLWS early
this morning to diminish by 15z as the winds mix down to the
surface. Winds to persist from the west with gusts to near 25kts
at times. As for cigs, to remain vfr with best chances of broken
cigs at KUIN, but scattered elsewhere. Winds to diminish towards
sunset and skies to clear out. Surface ridge to move in late
tonight with winds backing to the south, but remaining light. Will
see mid cloud deck move in ahead of next weather system.
Specifics for KSTL:
Forecast area remains in strong cyclonic flow. Some LLWS early
this morning to diminish by 15z as the winds mix down to the
surface. Winds to persist from the west with gusts to near 25kts
at times. As for cigs, to remain scattered over metro area. Winds to
diminish by 00z Sunday and skies to clear out. Surface ridge to
move in late tonight with winds backing to the south by 10z Sunday, but
remaining light. Will see mid cloud deck move in ahead of next
weather system.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
333 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2014
Another chilly fall day expected with well below average temperatures
and gusty WNW winds as the region remains locked in deep cyclonic
flow. Probably the biggest item of concern is the amount of cloud
cover today. Current trajectory of the thicker stratus across
eastern MN/northeast IA would be across northern/central Illinois.
Model low level RH progs suggest some diurnal cu across the
northeast quarter of the CWA, with the RAP more agressive with
both coverage and also bringing the cu further southeast into
eastern MO. I have given some weight to the RAP and have bumped up
the sky coverage from the previous forecast.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2014
A cold night on tap as the weak surface ridge now centered through
the high Plains slides across the area and results in gradually
backing surface winds. Warm advection aloft will get underway and
there will be an increase in mid/high clouds overnight in advance
of the next upstream NW flow disturbance. Just how low the
temperatures get tonight will be strongly based on the arrival of
the clouds. The main thrust of these looks through central and
northeast MO, while southern sections of the CWA will remain void
of clouds longer. I have mentioned patchy frost across the eastern
Ozarks into portions of southwest IL with this in mind, and due to
topography-drainage and lighter winds where I have mins in the mid
30s.
Sunday into Tuesday the forecast is a bit tricky thanks to a series
of NW flow disturbances traversing the region and associated weak
surface boundaries. The first of these on Sunday is accompanied by
a weak surface low/trof and trailing cold front with good low
level warm advection ahead of it. High temperatures should be
quite a bit warmer as a result. Some of the guidance is generating
light and spotty QPF with the ECMWF the most agressive. After
collaboration with neighboring offices, will hold off introducing
any pops and let the next shift get a fresher look. This initial
boundary then washes out with yet another disturbance and front
forecast to impact the area late Sunday night and into Monday.
This system will have a bit better moisture (albiet still limited) and
steep lapse rates to yield weak instability, thus I have added the
mention of thunder across the southeast half of the CWA on Monday
afternoon. Tuesday looks largely dry and warmer with average to
above average temperatures continuing into Thursday. Confidence in
the forecast diminishes Thursday into Friday with the GFS and
ECMWF and ensemble members exhibiting some rather large
differences.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2014
VFR flight conditions and west-northwest flow will continue to
prevail. Scattered to broken clouds around 6,000 FT will continue
to move across the area through the remainder of the night and
into Saturday. Low level wind shear conditions will persist with
northwest wind increasing from around 5 to 8 kts at the surface to
around 30kts at 1,000 FT or just slightly lower. Wind shear
conditions should subside Saturday morning after sunrise when wind
will again pick up to around 12 to 14 kts with gusts to 20 to 25
kts. Wind gusts will diminish during the late afternoon.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR flight conditions and west-northwest flow will continue to
prevail. Expect primarily scattered clouds around 6,000 ft for the
rest of the night, but a broken ceiling will occasionally develop.
Low level wind shear conditions will persist with northwest wind
increasing from around 5 to 8 kts at the surface to around 30kts
at 1,000 FT or just slightly lower. Wind shear conditions should
subside Saturday morning after sunrise when wind will again pick
up to around 12 to 14 kts with gusts to 20 to 25 kts. Wind gusts
will diminish during the late afternoon.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
940 AM MDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.UPDATE...
STARTING OFF THE DAY WINDY AND CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA. THESE
ELEMENTS HAVE RESULTED IN A WARM START TO THE DAY AS WELL WITH
TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER WESTERN
FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO DECREASE SOME THIS
AFTERNOON AS NORTHWESTERLY JET DRAGS A POCKET OF DRIER AIR ALOFT
OVER THE AREA...SO TWEAKED FORECAST CLOUD COVER DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE THE DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
GUST IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. ENOUGH JET
DYNAMICS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA...TO
TRY AND DEVELOP AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER HERE AND THERE BUT DRY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THIS MAINLY VIRGA SO KEPT DRY FORECAST
IN TACT. CHAMBERS
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...
THE WEEKEND WILL BE MILD AND BREEZY TO WINDY BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT.
TODAY...WE EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME LOWER
70S F IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT WHERE MIXING WILL BE MOST EFFICIENT. THE
00 UTC BIAS-CORRECTED...MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SERVED AS AN INITIAL
BASIS FOR TODAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...BUT WE THEN WEIGHTED
THE FINAL NUMBERS A BIT TOWARD THE 00 UTC GFS MOS /MAV/ SINCE THAT
GUIDANCE OFTEN DOES WELL ON THE HIGH PLAINS WITH NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS. PLUS...WE DID HAVE A BIT OF A COOL BIAS ON FRI...ALTHOUGH A
GREATER AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE PRESENT TODAY. WE DIDN/T ADD
ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST ANYWHERE WITH NO REAL
STRONG FORCING OTHER THAN WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...BUT WE SHOULD
NOTE THAT SOME OVERNIGHT HRRR RUNS HAVE CALLED FOR SOME SHOWERS IN
SOUTHEASTERN MT DURING THE DAY. FINALLY...IT WILL BE WINDY /MAINLY
IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY/ WITH 30-35 KT WINDS SEEN
NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM LIVINGSTON TO BILLINGS AND
SHERIDAN TO GO WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. THAT SHOULD BE GOOD
ENOUGH FOR SOME GUSTS TO 30 OR 35 MPH IN THOSE AREAS AT TIMES.
TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO WRITE HOME ABOUT AS TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE 40S F IN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS. WE SERIOUSLY THOUGHT
ABOUT ADDING LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE BROADUS...
MILES CITY AND HYSHAM AREAS AS JET-STREAK-AIDED FORCING INCREASES.
HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT VERY SATURATED ALOFT AND THERE/S
NOT MUCH STATISTICAL SUPPORT FOR POPS...SO WE LEFT A DRY FORECAST.
SUN...WE HAVE SOME LOW SHOWER CHANCES IN SOUTHEASTERN MT SINCE THE
AREA WILL BE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN INTENSIFYING JET STREAK
AT 300 MB. THE SHOWER CHANCES PUSH EAST WITH THE JET STREAK DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALSO ENABLE AN ENVIRONMENT WHICH FAVORS
GUSTY WINDS OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT ON ITS SUBSIDENT RIGHT EXIT ZONE.
HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE WELL INTO THE 60S F ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN MT
AND NORTH CENTRAL WY. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
DESPITE BASIC 500MB PATTERN SIMILARITIES...MODELS HAVE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SO LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXTENDED REGARDING TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION.
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS
LARGE RIDGE OVER WEST COAST WITH LARGE CLOSED HUDSON BAY LOW. THIS
PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER A MILD/WARM ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW. SO
WE CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR A SEASONABLY WARM DAY...THOUGH BREEZY IN
THE EAST. BIG DIFFERENCES APPEAR BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
ECMWF BACKS DOORS A STRONG SURFACE FRONT INTO THE AREA AND
PRODUCES QPF ALONG A BAROCLINIC BAND. THE GFS EVENTUALLY BACKDOORS
A FRONT IN...BUT HAS IT DRY AND WEAK...AND YET BOTH MODELS HAVE
SIMILAR POSITIONS OF JET STREAM IN THE DAKOTAS. MY FEELING IS THE
ECMWF IS OVERDOING QPF AS DISTANT POSITION OF JET SHOULD NOT OFFER
MUCH SUPPORT TO SURFACE. THAT SAID...THE LOW POPS IN THE EAST I
INHERITED FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK REASONABLE...BUT I
WILL REMOVE THE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WHERE
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY PREVENT MUCH
SURFACE CONVERGENCE NOR LIFT/MOISTURE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE THEIR DIFFERENCES INTO
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH THE ECMWF MORE AGGRESSIVE WEST WITH THE
POSITION OF THE COOLER AIR. 700MB FLOW LOOKS PRETTY WESTERLY...SO
AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS...BUT KNOW BETTER THAN TO COMPLETELY THROW
THIS SOLUTION OUT. THEREFORE...WILL USE A BLEND AT MIDWEEK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WORKING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA. ECMWF FINALLY DRIES THINGS OUT BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS 500MB HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH. GFS MAINTAINS DRY NW FLOW. WILL HAVE
LATTER PART OF FRIDAY DRY AND BLEND TEMPS. DIFFERENCES FOR DAY 8
TO WIDE TO GUESS AT...JUST USING BLEND WITH CLIMO. BT
&&
.AVIATION...
ANTICIPATE A DIURNALLY DRIVEN TREND OF WIND TODAY UNDER MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WESTERLY WIND WILL INCREASE IN MOST AREAS BY
17Z REACHING 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS BEFORE DECREASING AGAIN AROUND
02Z. BT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 072 049/068 046/072 049/071 046/061 039/048 033/049
0/N 11/B 00/U 11/U 11/B 22/W 21/B
LVM 069 042/068 041/071 044/070 044/065 036/054 031/057
0/N 11/B 00/U 00/U 12/W 22/W 22/W
HDN 071 048/069 044/072 046/071 043/063 039/052 035/052
0/N 11/N 10/U 12/W 21/B 22/W 22/W
MLS 068 048/066 042/069 048/065 042/059 037/049 033/050
1/N 12/W 00/B 12/W 21/B 11/B 11/B
4BQ 067 046/064 041/067 046/067 043/062 038/047 032/049
0/N 12/W 00/B 12/W 21/B 22/W 12/W
BHK 062 044/059 040/062 043/061 038/055 034/046 026/046
1/B 12/W 11/N 12/W 22/W 11/B 11/B
SHR 068 045/066 042/070 044/070 044/067 039/050 031/050
0/N 11/N 00/U 01/U 11/B 23/W 22/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
939 AM MDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA ALONG THE MT/ND
BORDER THIS MORNING AND POPS WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THESE
OBSERVATIONS. RECENT HRRR RUNS SEEM TO CAPTURE THIS ACTIVITY WELL
AND SO THIS GUIDANCE WAS LARGELY USED TO ADJUST POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON TO MATCH UP WITH NEAR TERM EXPECTATIONS. MESOSCALE
DETAIL WAS ADDED TO THE WIND GRIDS AS WELL. WILL NEED TO WATCH
AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE WEST END OF FORT PECK LAKE...THOUGH
UNSURE IF THREE CONSECUTIVE HOURS OF SUSTAINED 20 MPH WILL BE MET.
TOMORROW LOOKS BETTER FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. FINAL CHANGES THIS
MORNING INCLUDED TWEAKS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER BASED
UPON SATELLITE IMAGERY. MALIAWCO
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD REVEAL AN AMPLIFIED
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. A STRONG UPPER-LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER WISCONSIN AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS SPREADING
ITS INFLUENCE OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN STATES WHILE AN ELONGATED
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN
STATES.
THIS PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA IN SOME VARIATION OF A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
INFLUENCE FROM THE WEST.
A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS LINED UP ROUGHLY ALONG A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES...CLIPPING
OUR SW ZONES. THIS DELINEATES THE WARM AIR IN THE SW FROM THE
COLDER AIR IN THE NE. EXPECT THIS TO TURN INTO AN ACTUAL WARM
FRONT LATER TODAY...WHICH COULD USHER IN SOME BREEZY TO GUSTY
WINDS WHICH MAY APPROACH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT AFTER LOOKING THROUGH ALL THE MODELS...IT SEEMS
THAT THE MAJORITY OF THEM ADVERTISE WINDS SLIGHTLY BELOW CRITERIA
AND ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS. CHOSE TO NOT GO WITH A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY TODAY IN FAVOR OF ANTICIPATING A MORE CERTAIN ADVISORY
FOR SUNDAY. BUT OF COURSE...TODAY STILL WARRANTS A CLOSE WATCH FOR
MID-DAY AND AFTERNOON WINDS NEAR THE LAKE.
SYNOPTIC SCALE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
ANY EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THIS FLOW WILL
BE LIMITED AT BEST AND MAY ONLY CLIP OUR NE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY COMFORTABLE AUTUMN WEEKEND FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. BMICKELSON
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK WITH A
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A TROUGH TO THE EAST. WEAK SHORTWAVES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL ONLY
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THEN...THE MODELS DISAGREE WITH NEXT WEEKEND AS THE GFS
BUILDS THE RIDGE ON THE PACIFIC COAST AT THE SAME TIME THAT THE
ECMWF WANTS TO BRING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INLAND TOWARDS MONTANA. WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES
OF NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS...VFR WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
326 AM MDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...
THE WEEKEND WILL BE MILD AND BREEZY TO WINDY BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT.
TODAY...WE EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME LOWER
70S F IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT WHERE MIXING WILL BE MOST EFFICIENT. THE
00 UTC BIAS-CORRECTED...MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SERVED AS AN INITIAL
BASIS FOR TODAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...BUT WE THEN WEIGHTED
THE FINAL NUMBERS A BIT TOWARD THE 00 UTC GFS MOS /MAV/ SINCE THAT
GUIDANCE OFTEN DOES WELL ON THE HIGH PLAINS WITH NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS. PLUS...WE DID HAVE A BIT OF A COOL BIAS ON FRI...ALTHOUGH A
GREATER AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE PRESENT TODAY. WE DIDN/T ADD
ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST ANYWHERE WITH NO REAL
STRONG FORCING OTHER THAN WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...BUT WE SHOULD
NOTE THAT SOME OVERNIGHT HRRR RUNS HAVE CALLED FOR SOME SHOWERS IN
SOUTHEASTERN MT DURING THE DAY. FINALLY...IT WILL BE WINDY /MAINLY
IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY/ WITH 30-35 KT WINDS SEEN
NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM LIVINGSTON TO BILLINGS AND
SHERIDAN TO GO WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. THAT SHOULD BE GOOD
ENOUGH FOR SOME GUSTS TO 30 OR 35 MPH IN THOSE AREAS AT TIMES.
TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO WRITE HOME ABOUT AS TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE 40S F IN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS. WE SERIOUSLY THOUGHT
ABOUT ADDING LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE BROADUS...
MILES CITY AND HYSHAM AREAS AS JET-STREAK-AIDED FORCING INCREASES.
HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT VERY SATURATED ALOFT AND THERE/S
NOT MUCH STATISTICAL SUPPORT FOR POPS...SO WE LEFT A DRY FORECAST.
SUN...WE HAVE SOME LOW SHOWER CHANCES IN SOUTHEASTERN MT SINCE THE
AREA WILL BE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN INTENSIFYING JET STREAK
AT 300 MB. THE SHOWER CHANCES PUSH EAST WITH THE JET STREAK DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALSO ENABLE AN ENVIRONMENT WHICH FAVORS
GUSTY WINDS OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT ON ITS SUBSIDENT RIGHT EXIT ZONE.
HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE WELL INTO THE 60S F ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN MT
AND NORTH CENTRAL WY. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
DESPITE BASIC 500MB PATTERN SIMILARITIES...MODELS HAVE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SO LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXTENDED REGARDING TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION.
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS
LARGE RIDGE OVER WEST COAST WITH LARGE CLOSED HUDSON BAY LOW. THIS
PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER A MILD/WARM ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW. SO
WE CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR A SEASONABLY WARM DAY...THOUGH BREEZY IN
THE EAST. BIG DIFFERENCES APPEAR BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
ECMWF BACKS DOORS A STRONG SURFACE FRONT INTO THE AREA AND
PRODUCES QPF ALONG A BAROCLINIC BAND. THE GFS EVENTUALLY BACKDOORS
A FRONT IN...BUT HAS IT DRY AND WEAK...AND YET BOTH MODELS HAVE
SIMILAR POSITIONS OF JET STREAM IN THE DAKOTAS. MY FEELING IS THE
ECMWF IS OVERDOING QPF AS DISTANT POSITION OF JET SHOULD NOT OFFER
MUCH SUPPORT TO SURFACE. THAT SAID...THE LOW POPS IN THE EAST I
INHERITED FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK REASONABLE...BUT I
WILL REMOVE THE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WHERE
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY PREVENT MUCH
SURFACE CONVERGENCE NOR LIFT/MOISTURE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE THEIR DIFFERENCES INTO
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH THE ECMWF MORE AGGRESSIVE WEST WITH THE
POSITION OF THE COOLER AIR. 700MB FLOW LOOKS PRETTY WESTERLY...SO
AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS...BUT KNOW BETTER THAN TO COMPLETELY THROW
THIS SOLUTION OUT. THEREFORE...WILL USE A BLEND AT MIDWEEK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WORKING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA. ECMWF FINALLY DRIES THINGS OUT BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS 500MB HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH. GFS MAINTAINS DRY NW FLOW. WILL HAVE
LATTER PART OF FRIDAY DRY AND BLEND TEMPS. DIFFERENCES FOR DAY 8
TOO WIDE TO GUESS AT...JUST USING BLEND WITH CLIMO. BT
&&
.AVIATION...
ANTICIPATE A DIURNALLY DRIVEN TREND OF WIND TODAY UNDER MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WESTERLY WIND WILL INCREASE IN MOST AREAS BY
17Z REACHING 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS BEFORE DECREASING AGAIN AROUND
02Z. BT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 072 049/068 046/072 049/071 046/061 039/048 033/049
0/N 11/B 00/U 11/U 11/B 22/W 21/B
LVM 069 042/068 041/071 044/070 044/065 036/054 031/057
0/N 11/B 00/U 00/U 12/W 22/W 22/W
HDN 071 048/069 044/072 046/071 043/063 039/052 035/052
0/N 11/N 10/U 12/W 21/B 22/W 22/W
MLS 068 048/066 042/069 048/065 042/059 037/049 033/050
1/N 12/W 00/B 12/W 21/B 11/B 11/B
4BQ 067 046/064 041/067 046/067 043/062 038/047 032/049
0/N 12/W 00/B 12/W 21/B 22/W 12/W
BHK 062 044/059 040/062 043/061 038/055 034/046 026/046
1/E 12/W 11/N 12/W 22/W 11/B 11/B
SHR 068 045/066 042/070 044/070 044/067 039/050 031/050
0/N 11/N 00/U 01/U 11/B 23/W 22/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
151 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL DURING
THE DAY. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
ONLY REACHING THE 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1045 PM EDT UPDATE...
DECIDED TO DECREASE POPS IN NEAR TERM AS RADAR TRENDS ARE JUST NOT
IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THAT BEING SAID COVERAGE MAY STILL
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING THUS DECIDED TO LEAVE POPS
THE SAME FOR AFTER 06Z. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST HOLDS.
PREVIOUS FORECAST...
700 PM EDT UPDATE...
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO PUSH INTO THE FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. COVERAGE OVERALL LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK BUT
ACTIVITY SHOULD FILL IN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PWAT VALUES
ARE AROUND AN INCH AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
THUS... WE COULD SEE A STEADY RAIN TONIGHT. DO NOT SEE FLOODING
BEING AN ISSUE TONIGHT AS WE HAVE BEEN DRY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF TIME. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE
MSLP TIGHTENS ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF OHIO.
STILL EXPECT THE FROPA TO BE AFTER 12Z SATURDAY MORNING.
UPDATED TEMPS AND WINDS TO MATCH CURRENT OBS ACROSS THE CWA.
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PLEASE READ THE DISCUSSION BELOW.
PREVIOUS FORECAST...
205 PM UPDATE...
SFC LOPRES SITTING NORTH OF LK MICHIGAN WITH CDFNT EXTNDG SWRD ALONG
THE IN/OH BORDER AND IS ON THE MV EAST. RAIN HAS DVLPD JUST AHD OF
SFC FNT AND HAS NOW MADE IT INTO WRN PA. CURRENT MVMNT HAS IT
EXPECTED TO MV INTO STEUBEN CNTY ARND 21Z. HOWEVER, LATEST HRRR IS
INDICATING PCPN ERODING AS IT HEADS EAST AND NOT SPREADING INTO WRN
SXNS UNTIL 00Z. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE A WET NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR
THE CWA AS SRLY FLOW FM THE GOM HAS WORKED ITS WAY NORTH WITH AN
AREA OF 1.5+ INCHES OF PW VALUES INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LKS.
EXPECT THAT THIS AREA OF MOISTURE WL MV QUICKLY THRU THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH MODERATE SHOWERS EXPECTED AT TIMES. CANNOT RULE OUT A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS K VALUES CLIMB ABV 30 HWVR MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
RMN PUNY BARELY CLIMBING TO 6 C/KM. THUS HV RMVD SLGT CHC THUNDER FM
THE GRIDS AS AM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH POTENTIAL.
THINK THAT WIDESPREAD RAIN WL BE IN AND OUT WITHIN A 3-HR PERIOD OF
TIME. BACK EDGE HAS MADE IT INTO ERN OHIO AND GIVEN SPEED OF SYSTEM
HV SPED UP TIMING ON LINE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS MVG INTO FINGER LKS
CNTYS BY MIDNIGHT AND OUT OF WRN CATS BY 06Z. LINGERING SHOWERS WL
RMN POSSIBLE BHND MAIN TROF THEREFORE HV RETAINED SCT-LKLY POPS THRU
MOST OF THE OVRNGT HRS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...
FROPA OCCURS SAT MRNG LVG COOL AIR IN ITS WAKE AS H8 TEMPS FALL
BLO 0C FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WL SET THE STAGE FOR LK EFFECT
SHOWERS, HWVR WITH FLOW BEING FM THE SW THRU THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM WL LKLY SEE ONLY CLDS SKIRTING THRU NRN ZONES. TEMPS WL RMN
STEADY OR FALL DRG THE DAY ON SATURDAY IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH EARLY HIGHS IN THE U50S/NR 60 THEN FALLING DRG THE DAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR NY CNTYS.
IF SKIES CAN CLR OUT SAT NGT, EXPECT MINS TO DIP INTO THE M30S.
HWVR CURRENT GROWING AREAS (FINGER LKS/WYOMING AND LACKAWANNA
VLYS) WL LKLY RMN IN THE U30S TO PREVENT ANY FROST SUN MRNG. THIS WILL
ALL DEPEND ON CLDS THO.
EXPECT TEMPS THRU THE END OF THE SHORT TERM TO APPCH SEASONAL
VALUES AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM DIVING SOUTH THRU CANADA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM FRI UPDATE... OVERALL...AN UNSETTLED PD IS IN STORE...AS A
DEEP ERN CANADIAN/CONUS TROUGH ONLY SLOWLY RELAXES ITS GRIP NEXT
WEEK.
ONE S/WV ROTATING ARND THE SERN QUADRANT OF THE NRN GREAT
LAKES UPR LOW WILL BRING A GOOD CHC OF SHWRS TUE INTO WED...WITH A
SFC FRNT ULTIMATELY SWEEPING THIS PCPN OFF THE COAST BY WED NGT.
AFTER A PROBABLE LULL ON THU WITH BRIEF S/WV RIDGING ALOFT...THE
NEXT SIG MID-LVL WV...ALG WITH A DVLPG E-W FRNTL ZN...LOOKS TO
IMPACT NY/PA TWDS THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A RENEWED CHC OF SHWRS.
TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR A BIT ABV CLIMO FOR EARLY OCT...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A NEGATIVE TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 13Z-15Z. IN GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. FROM APPROXIMATELY 09Z-13Z, CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE
LOW MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AT KITH/KBGM. AFTER FROPA LIGHT
SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN LOW LEVEL
DRYING WILL LEAD TO VFR CIGS. OVERNIGHT UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ANY
LAKE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF TERMINALS WITH JUST SCATTERED
STRATO CU OR SKC.
S/SE WINDS AT 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTHWEST
EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN LIGHT SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY TO MON...MAINLY VFR.
MON NGT INTO WED...SHRA WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY
TUE/TUE NGT.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...KAH/PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1148 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADD A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN BACK TOWARD THE GRAND
FORKS AREA AS RADAR SHOWS A LITTLE BAND OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP
(PROBABLY DRIZZLE) MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM ROSEAU-TVF TOWARD
THE RED RIVER. OTHEWISE THE WRN CLOUD AREA FROM BOTTINEAU THRU DVL
TO JAMESTOWN CONTINUES TO ERODE AND LAST FEW SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATE CLEARING CONTINUING. SO WITH THAT IN MIND PRETTY GOOD
CHANCE FAR WEST WILL DROP LATER TONIGHT INTO THE FREEZE RANGE.
FARTHER EAST...SOME CLEARING TRIED TO MAKE IT TO THE RED RIVER BUT
CLOUD BAND DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE RRV PROPER SHOULD KEEP GFK-FAR
IN THE CLOUDS TONIGHT AND THUS WARMER TEMPS. EASTERN FCST AREA IN
CLOUDS AND SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP...MOSTLY -RA. THE SNOW AREA WITH
HEAVIER PRECIP HAS NOW EXITED THE REGION INTO ECNTRL MN OR NW WI.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
LET WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AS WINDS SAFELY BELOW
ADVSIORY LEVELS. OTHERWISE COMPOSITE CANADIAN/US RADARS SHOW MAIN
BAND OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL DROPPING SOUTH FAIRLY QUICKLY AND NOW
CENTERED AROUND BEMIDJI-BAGLEY-PARK RAPIDS REGION. THIS WILL
PRODUCE QUICK COATING TO 1 INCH AS TEMPS FALL TO NEAR 32F AS THIS
MODERATE SNOW FALLS. TEMPS UPSTREAM CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S
AS SNOW ENDS AND RETURNS TO A LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. THIS BATCH OF
LIGHT SNOW WILL EXIT THE FCST AREA 03Z PERIOD...LEAVING JUST LIGHT
PRECIP IN THE FAR EASTERN FCST AREA THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW. OTHER ISSUE IS DEGREE OF CLOUD CLEARING IN ERN
ND/RRV. LARGE HOLE IN THE CLOUDS ON WESTERN EDGE OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY FROM WEST OF PORTAGE MANITOBA TO JUST WEST OF GFK. BAND OF
CLOUDS WEST OF THIS BACK THRU DVL-MOT-JMS. HRRR INSISTS THE CLOUDS
OVER ERN ND WILL GO AWAY TONIGHT AND BRING CLEARING INTO THE RRV
QUITE EARLY TONIGHT. UNSURE OF THIS BUT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED AS
EARLIER THAN EXPECTED CLEARING MAY RESULT IN A FEW DEGREES COLDER
TEMPS IN THE IMMEDIATE RRV. DID REMOVE FROST WORDING FROM GRIDS AS
THERE WILL NOT BE FROST WITH THE WIND AT LEAST HOLDING UP SOME
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE SNOW THREAT THIS EVENING IN NW
MN...THEN MORE PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL
AGREEMENT...WITH NO PREFERENCE TODAY.
FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIE DOWN THIS EVENING BUT STILL REMAIN
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A BAND OF SNOW MOVING INTO NW
MN...WITH SOME AREAS FROM NEAR ROSEAU INTO THE BEMIDJI AREA
GETTING AN INCH...PERHAPS UP TO 2 ON GRASSY SURFACES. TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 30S HERE. THE FAR WEST WILL HAVE THE
CHANCE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZE WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30...SO WILL ISSUE THE FREEZE WARNING HERE. FOR AREAS IN
THE VALLEY...EXPECT MORE CLOUDS TO REMAIN WITH WINDS HIGH ENOUGH
TO KEEP TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND 33...SO NOT EXPECTING A FREEZE
HERE. IF THIS AREA CLEARS AT ALL AND WINDS DECOUPLE SOME...THEN
THE FREEZE WARNING WOULD NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO THE EAST.
ON SATURDAY...EXPECT A DRY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR
ALL AREAS...AND IT COULD BECOME BREEZY BUT WINDS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG AS TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
FOR SUNDAY...EXPECT A DRY AND COOL DAY...ALBEIT A BIT WARMER FROM
SATURDAYS READINGS.
ON MONDAY..AN UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THERE SHOULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE NORTH DURING THE
MORNING...WITH SOME COLD RAIN BY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL...AND MAY BE EVEN COLDER IF THERE IS MORE PRECIP
AROUND THAN MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN CHALLENGE AT THE BEGINNING
OF THIS PERIOD IS STILL THE EVOLUTION OF A BROAD VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INITIALLY OVER ONTARIO. THIS COMPLEX
SHOULD HAVE RETROGRADED OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST TIME FRAME...AND BE IN THE PROCESS OF A MIGRATION TO
THE EAST AS THE EXTENDED PACKAGE BEGINS. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A
MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
QUICKLY THIS WILL OCCUR AS MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY GFS...IS
OFTEN TOO SWIFT IN MOVING SYSTEMS PROGRESSIVELY FROM WEST TO EAST.
AS THE FLOW DE-AMPLIFIES SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CREEPING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE "MORE
SEASONAL" 50S BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
VFR CIGS WILL REMAIN AT GFK-FAR TONIGHT AND LIKELY INTO MUCH OF
FRIDAY DAYTIME AS SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS AND
LINGERING 850 MB MOISTURE. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 12 TO 25 KTS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY. TVF/BJI AREA IN MVFR CIGS AND THIS
SHOULD LINGER THRU DAYBREAK BEFORE BASES RISE SOME FRIDAY DAYTIME.
DVL REGION WILL SEE SCATTERING OF VFR CLOUDS AND GENERALLY
SCATTERED CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH NORTH WINDS A TAD
LIGHTER IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-
024-026-028-038-049-052-054.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...WJB/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1002 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO PRECIP/WEATHER...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER HAS INCREASED A SKOSH
MORE ACROSS NRN OK THIS EVENING... NOW THAT THE ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY HAS INTERACTED WITH A MORE SUPPORTIVE MOISTURE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NRN OK. GIVEN THE UPTICK IN DEVELOPMENT AND
OVERALL TRACK... INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER
FOR THE OKC METRO OVERNIGHT. THE 01Z RAP APPEARS TO HAVE AN OKAY
HANDLE ON DEVELOPMENT... WITH AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TMRW MORNING AS THE SFC LOW LINGERS OVER WEST TX...
WITH AN INCREASING SFC TROUGH EXTENDING INTO SERN OK. AS THE SFC
OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH S/SE TONIGHT... IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO AN OVERALL BETTER ENVIRONMENT... INCREASING SUPPORT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL OK... AND PORTIONS OF NRN TX.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014/
AVIATION...
06/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING AT AND NEAR
KPNC AS ACTIVITY OVER KANSAS SPREADS SOUTHEAST WITH JET STREAK -
S/WV TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...SOUTH AND EAST OF
OUR TERMINALS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATE TO PRECIP/WX...
DISCUSSION...
INTERESTING FORECAST THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK H500
SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH. CURRENTLY... ACROSS
KANSAS... AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY MOVE S/SE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ROOTED ALONG
A WEAK ISENTROPIC RESPONSE... SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 310 TO 315K... THE
LOCATION OF THE BEST MOISTURE WITHIN THE MID LEVELS. GIVEN 17Z
SOUNDING FROM LAMONT (LMN) IN NRN OK... THE LL/BL REMAINS
NOTICABLE DRY... AND COMPARED TO SFC OBS... THE RETURNS VISIBLE
ON RADAR ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK ARE LIKELY REPRESENTATIVE OF VIRGA.
HOWEVER... AS THE WAVE PROGRESSES S/SE THROUGH THE EVENING...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER AS WELL GIVEN COLD TEMPS ALOFT.
FURTHER SOUTH... ALONG THE RED RIVER/TEXOMA REGION OF SOUTH
CENTRAL OK/WRN N TX. DECENT WAA HAS CONTINUED TO TRANSPORT A
MODEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE LL/BL. COMBINED WITH A WEAK
SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE LLANO ESTACADO/CAPROCK
IN WEST TX... THERE REMAINS ENOUGH FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDER TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE KS/NRN
OK ACTIVITY.
AT THE MOMENT... NOT OVERLY CONVINCED OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP IN
CENTRAL OK/THE METRO. HOWEVER... IF YOU ALLOW ME TO HEDGE A BIT...
GIVEN THE MOISTURE PROFILE/LIFT... WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
DRIZZLE DEVELOPED LATE TONIGHT... WITH BEST CHANCES EAST OF I-35.
JTK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 143 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE VERY WEAK FRONT THAT IS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA TODAY
WILL LIE OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT WHEN A FAST-MOVING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES. THESE FEATURES WILL INTERSECT GREATER
MOISTURE IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND GIVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THROUGH MID-WEEK VERY
HOT WEATHER WILL QUICKLY RETURN. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S. BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES WILL BECOME
STRONGER OVER OKLAHOMA AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. LONGER-TERM MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
AGREE ON THE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY TIME FRAME FOR THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN IN OKLAHOMA. A RE-PHASING OF THE TWO BRANCHES OF THE
WESTERLIES IS EXPECTED IN THE WEEKEND WHEN RAIN CHANCES END AND
COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 57 87 60 92 / 20 10 10 0
HOBART OK 55 88 59 92 / 10 10 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 61 89 64 94 / 20 10 10 0
GAGE OK 46 88 52 90 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 51 83 55 91 / 20 10 10 0
DURANT OK 63 85 65 91 / 30 20 10 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
159 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT. A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN REMAIN PARKED OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW
COLD DAYS ARE IN STORE THIS WEEKEND. THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY LIFT
OUT BY MID WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK TO NORMALS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM KBFD SOUTH TO KJST AT 05Z IS EVIDENT AS
ENHANCED LINEAR FEATURE IN RADAR REFLECTIVITY. AHEAD OF THE
CDFRONT WIDESPREAD LGT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ALONG AXIS OF LL
JET/PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS OVR EASTERN PA. LATEST RAP OUTPUT
SUGGESTS CDFRONT WILL EXIT THE EASTERN COUNTIES BTWN 10Z-11Z.
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AT 05Z SHOWS A FAIR AMT OF POST-FRONTAL LGT
RAIN FALLING ACROSS OHIO AND WESTERN PA. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU EARLY THIS MORNING
BEHIND THE FRONT. FURTHER EAST...DOWNSLOPING EAST WIND BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN LITTLE CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL RAIN BEHIND THE
FRONT FROM KUNV AND KAOO EASTWARD.
A LOOK AT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGEST
MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES...TO ARND
60F EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
CWA BY SUNRISE. FROPA IS AT OR JUST BEFORE 12Z ACROSS THE FAR
EAST.
A DRY AND MUCH COOLER SATURDAY IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA
AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT. COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL
LIKELY YIELD A GOOD DEAL OF STRATOCU AND EVEN SCT SHRA ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES/CENTRAL MTNS. A WSW BLYR FLOW SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS NORTH OF THE BORDER. FARTHER EAST...DOWNSLOPING
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD YIELD PT-MOSUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. TEMPS WILL MOVE UP ONLY A LITTLE...AND MAY FALL JUST A FEW
DEGS AT FIRST...ESP UNDER THE CLOUDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BIG QUESTION IN THE MID TERM IS LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION AND A RIDGE IS BUILDING IN THE MID LEVEL. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASING STABLE ATMOSPHERE AND A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD NOT PASS OVR THE
REGION SO THOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BE IDEAL FOR RAD
COOLING...CAN/T RULE OUT FROST/FREEZE ISSUES SAT NIGHT. ESPECIALLY
OVR THE ALLEGHENIES AS 850 MB TEMPS COULD BE IN THE 0 TO -5 CELSIUS
RANGE. DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD BE
PERSISTANT OVERNIGHT...NOT ALLOWING FOR AN INVERSION OR COLD POOL
TO FORM. THE BLYR FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM SW TO A MORE
WESTERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY...KEEPING LAKE EFFECT SHRA NORTH OF THE
BORDER. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THRU BASE OF UPPER TROF
COULD SUPPORT A FEW -SRHA ACROSS THE NW MTNS SUNDAY.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THROUGH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. EXPECT A WARMING TREND AS FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHERLY OUT AHEAD OF A DIGGING TROF THE SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND OVER THE GRT LKS. THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CANADA SHOULD BE THE MAIN
WEATHER DRIVER THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS APPEARS
LIKELY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER TROF LIFTS THROUGH. HAVE
SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE REGION THOUGH TIMING AND
STRENGTH UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN. MILDER AND MORE SETTLED WX APPEARS
LIKELY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT AND FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS WITH FRONT JUST WEST OF THE OFFICE. NOT
SEEING ANY THUNDER OR DAMAGING WINDS AT THIS POINT. 06Z TAFS
SENT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL PA TONIGHT. A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN REMAIN PARKED OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING NW PA AT 00Z IS SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH
KBFD AROUND 04Z AND KMDT-KLNS ABOUT 10Z-12Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10-15 KTS
THOUGH WINDS JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP WILL BE IN THE 30-40 KT
RANGE /KEEPING MENTION OF LLWS IN THE TERMINALS/. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND REMAIN AT SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS
NEAR THE SURFACE WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING ALOFT.
CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR IS POSS EARLY AT KJST IF WINDS TURN PAST 180 DEGREES
BEFORE FROPA. AS FAR AS PRECIP IS CONCERNED...FIRST AREA OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY WORK EASTWARD IMPACTING MAINLY
EASTERN HALF OF CWA THIS EVE AND EARLY MORNING. A HEAVIER BAND OF
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY WITH FROPA...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS /ESPECIALLY WEST/.
SAT WILL START OFF WITH WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS. IMPROVEMENT WILL
OCCUR MOST QUICKLY IN THE LOWER SUSQ AS WESTERLY WINDS BRING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WHICH WILL HELP DRY OUT LOWER LAYERS AND BRING
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE
WEST/CENTRAL /EVEN WITH A BIT OF A DRY SLOT SLIDING THROUGH/ AND
PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP LOWER CLOUDS LINGERING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING THROUGH MVFR BACK TO
VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AT ALL LOCALES EXCEPT KJST-KBFD. SCT
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
THROUGH THE DAY.
CLOUDS GET REINFORCED SAT NIGHT IN NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS
FLOW TURNS MORE OFF OF LAKE ERIE. SHOULD SEE CIG REDUCTIONS AT
KBFD AND MAYBE KJST...WHILE RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE SW SHOULD
KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ELSEWHERE.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...MVFR CIGS/SHRA PSBL NW...OTHERWISE VFR.
TUE...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM W...SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSS N/W.
WED...MVFR CIGS/SHRA PSBL NW...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
130 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT. A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN REMAIN PARKED OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW
COLD DAYS ARE IN STORE THIS WEEKEND. THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY LIFT
OUT BY MID WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK TO NORMALS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM KBFD SOUTH TO KJST AT 05Z IS EVIDENT AS
ENHANCED LINEAR FEATURE IN RADAR REFLECTIVITY. AHEAD OF THE
CDFRONT WIDESPREAD LGT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ALONG AXIS OF LL
JET/PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS OVR EASTERN PA. LATEST RAP OUTPUT
SUGGESTS CDFRONT WILL EXIT THE EASTERN COUNTIES BTWN 10Z-11Z.
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AT 05Z SHOWS A FAIR AMT OF POST-FRONTAL LGT
RAIN FALLING ACROSS OHIO AND WESTERN PA. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU EARLY THIS MORNING
BEHIND THE FRONT. FURTHER EAST...DOWNSLOPING EAST WIND BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN LITTLE CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL RAIN BEHIND THE
FRONT FROM KUNV AND KAOO EASTWARD.
A LOOK AT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGEST
MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES...TO ARND
60F EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
CWA BY SUNRISE. FROPA IS AT OR JUST BEFORE 12Z ACROSS THE FAR
EAST.
A DRY AND MUCH COOLER SATURDAY IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA
AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT. COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL
LIKELY YIELD A GOOD DEAL OF STRATOCU AND EVEN SCT SHRA ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES/CENTRAL MTNS. A WSW BLYR FLOW SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS NORTH OF THE BORDER. FARTHER EAST...DOWNSLOPING
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD YIELD PT-MOSUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. TEMPS WILL MOVE UP ONLY A LITTLE...AND MAY FALL JUST A FEW
DEGS AT FIRST...ESP UNDER THE CLOUDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BIG QUESTION IN THE MID TERM IS LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION AND A RIDGE IS BUILDING IN THE MID LEVEL. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASING STABLE ATMOSPHERE AND A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD NOT PASS OVR THE
REGION SO THOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BE IDEAL FOR RAD
COOLING...CAN/T RULE OUT FROST/FREEZE ISSUES SAT NIGHT. ESPECIALLY OVR
THE ALLEGHENIES AS 850 MB TEMPS COULD BE IN THE 0 TO -5 CELSIUS
RANGE. DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD BE
PERSISTANT OVERNIGHT...NOT ALLOWING FOR AN INVERSION OR COLD POOL
TO FORM. THE BLYR FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM SW TO A MORE
WESTERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY...KEEPING LAKE EFFECT SHRA NORTH OF THE
BORDER. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THRU BASE OF UPPER TROF
COULD SUPPORT A FEW -SRHA ACROSS THE NW MTNS SUNDAY.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THROUGH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. EXPECT A WARMING TREND AS FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHERLY OUT AHEAD OF A DIGGING TROF THE SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND OVER THE GRT LKS. THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CANADA SHOULD BE THE MAIN
WEATHER DRIVER THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS APPEARS
LIKELY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER TROF LIFTS THROUGH. HAVE
SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE REGION THOUGH TIMING AND
STRENGTH UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN. MILDER AND MORE SETTLED WX APPEARS
LIKELY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT AND FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL PA TONIGHT. A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN REMAIN PARKED OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING NW PA AT 00Z IS SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH
KBFD AROUND 04Z AND KMDT-KLNS ABOUT 10Z-12Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10-15 KTS
THOUGH WINDS JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP WILL BE IN THE 30-40 KT
RANGE /KEEPING MENTION OF LLWS IN THE TERMINALS/. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND REMAIN AT SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS
NEAR THE SURFACE WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING ALOFT.
CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR IS POSS EARLY AT KJST IF WINDS TURN PAST 180 DEGREES
BEFORE FROPA. AS FAR AS PRECIP IS CONCERNED...FIRST AREA OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY WORK EASTWARD IMPACTING MAINLY
EASTERN HALF OF CWA THIS EVE AND EARLY MORNING. A HEAVIER BAND OF
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY WITH FROPA...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS /ESPECIALLY WEST/.
SAT WILL START OFF WITH WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS. IMPROVEMENT WILL
OCCUR MOST QUICKLY IN THE LOWER SUSQ AS WESTERLY WINDS BRING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WHICH WILL HELP DRY OUT LOWER LAYERS AND BRING
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE
WEST/CENTRAL /EVEN WITH A BIT OF A DRY SLOT SLIDING THROUGH/ AND
PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP LOWER CLOUDS LINGERING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING THROUGH MVFR BACK TO
VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AT ALL LOCALES EXCEPT KJST-KBFD. SCT
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
THROUGH THE DAY.
CLOUDS GET REINFORCED SAT NIGHT IN NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS
FLOW TURNS MORE OFF OF LAKE ERIE. SHOULD SEE CIG REDUCTIONS AT
KBFD AND MAYBE KJST...WHILE RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE SW SHOULD
KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ELSEWHERE.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...MVFR CIGS/SHRA PSBL NW...OTHERWISE VFR.
TUE...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM W...SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSS N/W.
WED...MVFR CIGS/SHRA PSBL NW...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
739 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014
.UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO EVENING SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A BIT LESS CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI
HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL FASTER THAN FORECAST THIS
PAST HOUR. HAVE MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
FOR LATER TONIGHT...CURRENTLY WATCHING A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION IN NEBRASKA/KANSAS. THE AFTERNOON HRRR MODEL HAD SHOWN
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY NOW...BUT SO FAR
NOTHING...WHICH MAY INFLUENCE FORECAST POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DEPENDING ON THE 00Z PACKAGE ANOTHER UPDATE MAY BE NEEDED.
JAB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
JCL
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014/
AS OF 3PM...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 70S AREAWIDE WITH A BRISK
SOUTHWEST WIND AT THE SURFACE. DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY
AS A RESULT WITH READINGS INCREASING CLOSER TO THE 50 DEGREE
THRESHOLD.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WARM FRONT TO OUR IMMEDIATE EAST
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI AND BACK
THROUGH OKLAHOMA. ALOFT...A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN VIA WATER VAPOR SATELLITE NEAR NEBRASKA
AND SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE FEATURES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
IT APPEARS TO BE A WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE AREA
FOR THE ENTIRE WORKWEEK. THE MID-SOUTH WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW AT
LEAST A COUPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BL MOISTURE WILL RECOVER
SUFFICIENTLY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND MOST OTHER PARAMETERS
NEEDED FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN PLACE. A MID-LEVEL 50
KT JET STREAK ASSOC WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
1000-1400 J/KG MLCAPE...250 M^2S^2 0-3 KM SRH...MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM...AND BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KTS ALONG
WITH GOOD TURNING OF THE HODOGRAPH. THE ONLY REAL LIMITING FACTORS
APPEAR TO BE THE LACK OF BL MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. AT LEAST A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND THE MAIN THREATS APPEAR TO
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A TORNADO THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR
IMMINENT AS LCL`S WILL BE QUITE HIGH AND WINDS WILL NOT BE
SUFFICIENTLY BACKED AT THE SURFACE. WILL MAKE A MENTION OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HWO TO NEARLY COINCIDE WITH WHAT SPC`S
CURRENT SLIGHT RISK AREA IS.
.TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WELL AS KEEPING A HEALTHY CHANCE
OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.
FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT MORE ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY AND A WEAK FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH READINGS MAINLY IN
THE 80S.
BY THURSDAY...MODELS NOW AGREE ON A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE MID-
SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT NO SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY AT THIS
TIME. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND KEEP A
CHANCE OF DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE AREA. MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY BY SUNDAY...SO WENT WITH A
BLEND THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE (06/00Z-07/00Z)
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD OUTSIDE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MID-MORNING MONDAY AND INCREASING IN
COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS LOWERING IN THE
THUNDERSTORMS. ATTM IT APPEARS THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KJBR SO PLACED TEMPO
GROUPS FOR TSRA AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KTUP LEAVING KJBR WITH VCTS.
WINDS TONIGHT SW 4-8 KTS. WINDS MONDAY INCREASING FROM THE SW AND
BECOMING GUSTY TURNING MORE TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AT KJBR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THAT AREA.
JCL
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1000 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014
.UPDATE...
DISPARITY IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
CONTINUES WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. THE 00Z NAM IS COMPLETELY
DRY...BUT SINCE IT FAILS TO GENERATE THE ACTIVITY ALREADY ONGOING
IN OKLAHOMA...IT IS LIKELY FAILING TO RESOLVE THE STRENGTH OF THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL
FRONTAL FORCING...WHICH WILL BE ABSENT IN NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT. THE
00Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWS A CAPPING INVERSION THAT ADDITIONAL WARM
ADVECTION...AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...SHOULD ONLY STRENGTHEN.
EVEN SO...THE INITIATION OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER FORCING APPROACHES. WITHOUT
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WHICH IS UNLIKELY...ANY COLD POOL WILL
LIKELY BE INSUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SURFACE PARCELS TO JOIN THE
CONVECTIVE PARTY. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST RAP SUGGESTS OUTFLOW FROM
THE STORMS TO OUR NORTH MAY REACH THE RED RIVER BY DAYBREAK...THE
IMPULSE WILL HAVE PASSED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THEN.
25
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 651 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014/
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR TS IMPACTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS.
FOR THE METROPLEX TAFS...S-SW BREEZES SHOULD CONTINUE AROUND 10-13
KNOTS AND WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. HAVE
RETAINED VCTS FOR THE 00Z ISSUANCE...BUT THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN CLUSTER OF ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX TAFS ALONG THE RELATIVELY
DEEPER 2-3 KFT MOIST PLUME AS EVIDENCE BY CU LINE THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A FEW STORMS COULD PERSIST FROM THE
DEVELOPING CLUSTER NOW ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SCENARIO REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW. SHOULD TS DEVELOP INVOF OR AT
ANY METROPLEX TAF SITES...THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE
LIGHTNING...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED VISBY DUE TO HEAVY RAIN.
GRADUAL ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD HELP TO PULL
SOME OF THE BETTER 2-3 KFT MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND AS A RESULT HAVE
RETAINED THE MVFR CIGS AROUND 10Z MONDAY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. BREEZY S-SSW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE MVFR CIGS BREAK UP.
FOR THE WACO TAF...CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN VCTS AT THE
WACO TAF BASED ON WHERE CU DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND HI-RES
MODEL OUTPUT. BEST CHANCES FOR VCTS APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 07-10Z ON
MON. THE MAIN TS HAZARDS WILL BE LIGHTNING...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND
REDUCED VISBY DUE TO HEAVY RAIN. MVFR CIGS SHOULD ALSO ENCROACH ON
THE TERMINAL AROUND 10Z WITH PERHAPS A FEW PERIODS OF IFR CIGS.
CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS TIME AND
HAVE LEFT OUT OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE. BREEZY S-SSW WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP HERE AFTER THE MVFR CIGS DISSIPATE.
15-BAIN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014/
IT HAS BEEN A PLEASANTLY WARM FALL AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH HAVE
HELPED BRING 60 DEGREE DEW POINTS UP THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO
THE METROPLEX. THE AREA OF STRATUS THAT MOVED INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
NORTHEAST INTO THE CORSICANA AREA HAD SCATTERED OUT AS OF MID
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAD WARMED INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
EVENING.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
/TEXAS TECH WRF AND HRRR/ INDICATED THAT STORMS WILL FORM ACROSS
THE AREA BETWEEN WICHITA FALLS AND ABILENE BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND
THESE STORMS WOULD THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
THE NAM...GFS...CMC...SREF AND ECMWF DIFFER IN WHERE THE STORMS
WILL DEVELOP BUT SHOW A SIMILAR SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF WHAT
EVER DEVELOPS. GIVEN THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SOME 1 TO 1.5
INCH HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN ZONES
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO HAVE LEFT SOME 20 PERCENT POPS
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.
AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...WE WILL
BE DRY WITH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
WE CONTINUE TO HAVE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. THE GFS BRING THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
SIMON NORTHEAST ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE MEXICAN STATE OF
SONORA DURING THE 48 TO 72 HOUR PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE LOW THAT WILL FORM OVER
ARIZONA... WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA ACROSS NEW
MEXICO THEN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO OKLAHOMA.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE NORTHWESTERN
ZONES BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WOULD THEN SPREAD
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN
FORECASTED TO SINK DOWN THE PLAINS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ZONE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE
RAIN IS FORECAST TO END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER WITH THE ONSET AND ENDING OF THE RAIN
AND IS ALSO WETTER THAN THE ECMWF.
THE ECMWF BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF SIMON AND THE MID-LATITUDE LOW
FARTHER NORTH. THIS RESULTS IN RAIN CHANCES NOT STARTING UNTIL
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES WITH RAIN CHANCES
SPREADING SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST....RAIN
CHANCES END FROM SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
HAVE CONTINUED TO GO ALONG WITH A COMPROMISE BLEND THAT LEANS
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS.
58
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 66 87 72 93 73 / 40 10 10 5 5
WACO, TX 66 88 71 92 71 / 30 20 10 5 5
PARIS, TX 62 84 67 88 68 / 30 20 20 10 5
DENTON, TX 63 88 69 93 71 / 40 10 10 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 62 86 69 92 69 / 30 10 20 5 5
DALLAS, TX 67 87 72 92 73 / 40 10 10 5 5
TERRELL, TX 65 86 71 93 72 / 40 20 10 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 66 86 71 91 72 / 30 20 10 10 5
TEMPLE, TX 67 88 70 92 70 / 20 20 10 5 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 63 89 67 94 69 / 40 10 10 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
79/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1224 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
214 PM CDT
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE IDENTIFYING AND TIMING INDIVIDUAL
SHORT WAVE FEATURES IN PROLONGED NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER IMPACTS.
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MASSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH
AMERICA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE CENTER OF A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW
WOBBLING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND BREAKS DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WHICH EVENTUALLY HELPS OUR NEARLY STATIONARY CANADIAN CLOSED
LOW TO MOVE MORE DECISIVELY EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
UPPER FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA THUS BECOMES SOMEWHAT FLATTER BY
MID-WEEK...WHILE RETAINING A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ALSO IN THIS PROCESS...CURRENT TROPICAL STORM SIMON GETS
ABSORBED AS A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY SUB-TROPICAL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES.
LOCALLY...OUR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MODULATED A SERIES OF RELATIVELY SMALL AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS RIPPLING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
TIMING THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES AND THEIR
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. THE FIRST OF THESE
WAS PROPAGATING FROM CENTRAL IL INTO INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MAINLY MID-CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OR SO
OF COUNTIES. THESE SPRINKLES SHOULD MOVE LARGELY EAST INTO INDIANA
BY EVENING. ANOTHER QUICK-MOVING SHORT WAVE WAS NOTED IN GOES VAPOR
IMAGERY DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THIS TOO IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS IA AND CENTRAL IL LATER TONIGHT
WHILE YET ANOTHER CIRCULATION IN THE TWIN CITIES VICINITY PASSES TO
OUR NORTH. THIS PRESENTS ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A SECOND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
REFLECTION AND MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT NOTED IN THE 290-300 K
LAYER. TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS DO NOT SHOW OVERLY IMPRESSIVE SATURATION
THROUGH THE COLUMN...THOUGH GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
SQUEEZING OUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP LIKELY
LINGERING INTO MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS THE SHORT
WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER FAST DIGGING SHORT WAVE IS DEPICTED
DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATER MONDAY NIGHT...WITH CLOUDS
AND LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES AGAIN DEVELOPING AND SWEEPING ACROSS THE
CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND WITH BETTER CHANCE POPS
GENERALLY TO THE EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS AS THE DEEP LOW TO OUR NORTH FINALLY BEGINS
TO SHIFT TO THE EAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT DOES ALLOW A
BIT OF A WARMING TREND THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH HIGHS FROM UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S MONDAY RISING TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S TUESDAY. WITH A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA...TEMPS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE COOLER IN TH 60-65
RANGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
40S...THOUGH A COUPLE OF OUR TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS MAY DIP TO THE
UPPER 30S ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO MAXIMIZE RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AS NOTED ABOVE...AS UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES SOMEWHAT
FLATTER AND MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY...WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON EVENTUALLY WORKS
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY. WHILE THE UPPER
TROUGH TENDS TO HANG BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
IN LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IN BRINGING A PORTION OF THIS ENERGY AND
MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
RENEWED PUSH OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM JET AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MAY AID IN SPREADING PRECIP AS FAR NORTH AS THE
IL/WI BORDER THURSDAY...BEFORE THE BETTER FOCUS ALONG THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE TO OUR SOUTH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGING THE THREAT OF RAIN BACK INTO THE
AREA. DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS DEVELOP IN THE HANDLING OF THIS
SYSTEM BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS...WITH THE 00/12Z
ECMWF RUNS DECIDEDLY STRONGER WITH TROUGHING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON SUNDAY. WHILE CONFIDENCE LOWER WITH SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE
BY DAY 7...HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT SUNDAY AS A NOD TO
THE ECMWF WHICH IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUN.
TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED REMAIN COOLER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY/MID
OCTOBER...WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE INDICATING 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR
HIGHS AND UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S FOR MINS.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* TEMPORARY LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE BEST
CHANCE APPEARS TO BE 12Z-16Z.
* CHANCE FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF 2500-4000 FT CIGS DURING AND/OR
IMMEDIATELY AFTER LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING.
* WESTERLY WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 17-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SUPPORTIVE OF SMALL-SCALE WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. ONE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING OVER NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST
IN AT 06Z...WITH ANOTHER SET TO MOVE ATOP THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK.
THIS WILL BRING SUPPORT FOR TEMPORARY LIGHT RAIN AS WELL AS
LOWERING CIGS TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 4000 FT FOR A PERIOD. ANY
RAIN WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO CLOSER TO
WESTERLY WITH THIS MID-MORNING WEATHER SYSTEM AS IT WILL HAVE A
SUBTLE SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH IT. THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS TO HAVE A
LITTLE MORE SUFFICIENT MIXING THAN THIS MORNING AND THUS ALLOWING
FOR SOME GUSTS. MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE IN THEIR DEPTH OF
MIXING BUT STILL SHOULD SEE GUSTS IN THE TEENS...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE GUSTS OBSERVED SUNDAY IN A SIMILAR PATTERN.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES...SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SPEEDS JUST OFF THE DECK
/POSSIBLY DOWN TO 500 FT AGL/ ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30-40
KT. USUALLY IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN THE SURFACE WINDS INCREASE
SOME TOO THUS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
IN TAF.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH IN WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. MEDIUM AFTER 17Z.
* MEDIUM-HIGH THAT IF RAIN SHOWERS OCCUR THEY WILL BE LIGHT WITH
VFR VISIBILITY AND CIGS.
* LOW IN SUB 4000FT CIGS DURING THE MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. BETTER POTENTIAL AT MDW THAN ORD.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
* WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR.
* THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
* FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DRY/VFR.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
208 PM CDT
A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW MEANDERS AROUND
NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH MIDWEEK. BRISK SWLY-WLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL UNTIL THE LOW KICKS OUT TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY. WHILE GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME...THERE
WILL BE PERIODS WHEN WINDS WILL REACH ARND 30KT...ESPECIALLY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DROP OUT OF CANADA AND SPREAD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BUILD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH HIGH PLAINS...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OUT OF CANADA. BY FRIDAY...THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGIONS.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1148 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014
Short-wave trough currently evident on water vapor imagery over
the Plains has spread showers as far east as Omaha and Kansas City
as of mid-evening. HRRR continues to show the showers spreading
eastward into west-central Illinois by around midnight, then
further east to the Indiana border overnight. 00z KILX upper air
sounding shows a pronounced dry layer below 800mb, so any precip
that occurs will be quite light and may tend to be slower to
arrive than the models forecast. Will therefore continue to go
with a dry forecast this evening, followed by chance PoPs
overnight. Thanks to increasing clouds and precip, low
temperatures will be warmer than previous nights, with lows
remaining in the middle to upper 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014
Weak showers ahead of a shortwave have exited most of the CWA as of
2 pm except along the Indiana border. Latest surface map shows the
associated surface reflection between the Mississippi and Illinois
River valleys, and this should move through the CWA the remainder of
the afternoon.
Main focus for tonight is with potential for additional showers, as
another shortwave currently in South Dakota rotates into the Midwest
as part of the broad upper trough that covers much of the east 2/3
of the nation. High-resolution models bring an area of showers into
the western CWA quickly after about 1-2 am, with the areas northwest
of the Illinois River already drying out by sunrise. Have increased
PoP`s in most areas in the 09-12Z time frame, although rainfall
amounts are still looking to be minor.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014
There remains model consensus that the longwave trough will remain
in place across the eastern CONUS into Wednesday, and then begin to
shift eastward. However, there are varying solutions on the timing
and intensity of the various shortwaves that are projected to rotate
through the trough during that time. The strongest wave is now
projected for late tonight and Monday morning, which is about 6
hours faster than previous model solutions. Some adjustments were
made for that potential, with reduced PoPs by mid-day on Monday west
of I-57. Thunder potential was left in the forecast Monday afternoon
due to steep lapse rates, mainly south of a line from Rushville to
Lincoln to Champaign.
Another wave appears to affect central IL later Monday night into
Tuesday morning with another quick shot of showers or sprinkles. The
potential for measurable rain from the showers with those first two
waves is low. Most areas that do see rain may only get trace
amounts, or below `slight chance` PoP levels. For now will continue
with low chance and slight chance PoPs in the Mon-Tue time frame to
show that showers will be possible.
Guidance numbers from the NAM seem to be overdoing a brief warm-up
on Tuesday ahead of the surface front. With clouds and showers in
place for the morning and clearing not expected until after peak
heating, will trim highs at or below guidance.
Wednesday looks to be a dry day for now as the upper trough slides
east, heights rise aloft and surface high pressure builds into
Illinois. The typical warming associated with height rises aloft
will be counter-acted by the cold air with the surface high, so
overall the temps will cool down Wed into Thursday.
For Thursday, the remnants of Simon may come into play for our
forecast, as the moisture and wave energy get drawn into the
quasi-zonal flow from the southwest toward southern IL. The GFS is
the most progressive with that scenario, while the ECMWF seems to
stall the energy back over the Plains, but still send the moisture
eastward toward Illinois.
Models typically have a poor handle on the progression of tropical
systems once they come on land, so will not make significant changes
in the forecast. Will be keeping the likely and high chance PoPs
focused on Thursday for showers and isolated thunderstorms as the
remnants of Simon possible reach IL.
Beyond that, the GFS brings high pressure with reinforcing cool air
through next Sunday. Meanwhile the ECMWF finally ejects the wave
energy from Simon into IL on Sunday, with additional Gulf moisture
in tow and creates a wet scenario for the last half of next weekend.
The extended blend was influenced by the ECMWF enough for chance
PoPs to remain for Sat night/Sunday for now.
Overall, temps will remain below seasonal normals over the next
week, with Tuesday possibly the warmest day with highs possibly
reaching around 70. Otherwise, 50s and 60s will prevail for highs
through next Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014
VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 06z TAF period. A
weak upper-level disturbance currently across Iowa/Missouri will
track eastward tonight, spreading clouds and a few light showers
into central Illinois. Latest radar mosaic is showing scattered
showers approaching the Mississippi River. Based on timing tools
and most recent HRRR, have introduced VCSH at KPIA by 08z, then
further east to KCMI by 10z. Once disturbance passes to the east,
partial clearing will occur from west to east across the area
Monday morning. Despite synoptic subsidence in the wake of this
feature, steep mid-level lapse rates will lead to SCT-BKN diurnal
cloudiness, particularly along/north of the I-74 corridor. Will be
a breezy day as well, with forecast soundings suggesting westerly
winds gusting to around 20kt.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
156 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 105 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH PROBABLY AS MANY
THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE ARE SHOWERS OUT THERE. HAVE BEEFED UP THE POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS. THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO BE
THE MAIN CULPRIT FOR THIS ACTIVITY...WITH EVEN AN EMBEDDED SURFACE
WAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH A LITTLE MORE SUBTLE WARM
FRONT STEMMING SOUTHEAST. THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE
CENTRAL KENTUCKY CONVECTION INTO OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4
HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT DOES WEAKEN AS IT HEADS TO OUR FAR EAST...WHERE
LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR IS HANGING A BIT MORE TOUGH. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...SO HAVE FOLLOWED THIS IDEA THROUGH DAWN. TEMPERATURES
ARE VARYING QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BOONEVILLE
MESONET...NORMALLY MORE OF A VALLEY LOCATION CURRENTLY REPORTING AT
59 DEGREES...WHILE THE QUICKSAND MESONET IS STILL IN THE MID 40S.
EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE IS THE WHITESBURG MESONET...WHICH STARTED OUT AT
A COOL 45 DEGREES AT MIDNIGHT. AFTER SOME MIXING TOOK PLACE IN THE
PAST HOUR...IT IS NOW REPORTING 61 DEGREES. EXPECT THIS GRADUAL
SCOURING OUT OF THE COOLER VALLEY AIR TO CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1148 PM EDT SUN OCT 5
2014
THE SHORT WAVE BLOSSOMED AS IT APPROACHED EASTERN KENTUCKY AND HAS
EVEN BEEN ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CHANGED THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. THE TIME STILL LOOKED GOOD
FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST. LOOKING AT THE 00 GMT NAM...LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM BUFR WAS MILDLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEEING A SUPER
CELL OR TWO DEVELOP. WILL BE MONITORING THE SITUATION AS THE NEW GFS
BEGINS TO COME IN. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 914 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL TRY TO PUT SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. CHANGED THE FORECAST FROM MEASURABLE SHOWERS TO
SPRINKLES FOR TONIGHT. IN THE MORNING THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE MODELS DIFFER QUITE A
BIT ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT SHAKY. WAS
CHECKING A TIME HEIGHT FORECAST FOR JACKSON COMPARING THE NAM AND GFS
AND THE DIFFERENCES WERE STARK. HAD TO DO A BIT OF A MODEL BLEND. THE
NAM BUFFER SOUNDING FOR JKL FOR 4 PM TOMORROW HAS SOME IMPRESSIVE
INSTABILITY WITH TOTAL TOTALS OF 52 AND A LIFTER INDEX OF -4 WITH
1200 JOULES OF CAPE. THE HELICITY IS FORECAST TO BE 254. WITH ALL OF
THESE PARAMETERS IN PLAY...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TOMORROW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
THE DOWN SIDE IS THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL IS LOW...SO WILL HAVE
TO SEE WHAT SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS DO WITH IT. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF COAST REGION KEEPING THE ADVANCEMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AT BAY. THIS WILL KEEP
MUCH OF THE PRECIP...IF ANY TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND MOSTLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE REST OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT.
MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DURING THE MONDAY
TIMER PERIOD...A STRONG JET STREAK PUSHES INTO THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO THE OH VALLEY ON MONDAY AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE ENTERS
THE REGION. THIS INFLUX OF ENERGY WILL COINCIDE WITH A SURFACE COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW WEAK TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY INTO MONDAY EVENING AND WITH THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR
AVAILABLE...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY BE ON TAP FOR
MONDAY EVENING AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SPC CONTINUES TO KEEP THE
ENTIRE CWA IN A 5% RISK WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA IN
A 15% RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. STILL BELIEVE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR
THIS EVENT WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH THE BEST INGREDIENTS STILL TO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST IN CENTRAL TN AND SOUTH CENTRAL KY. STILL...SOME
CELLS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE I-75 CORRIDOR SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THE THREAT IN THE HWO.
HEADING INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE CENTERED JUST ALONG THE NC COAST...WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE FRONT STALLED OUT ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN WITH PRECIP EXPECTED ALONG EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME AND WILL KEEP POPS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS FOR OUR AREA UNTIL
FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
TUESDAY. ADVECTION OF MILD AND MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THESES FEATURES WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS. DEEP INSTABILITY LOOKS
MARGINAL...WITH PRECIP LIKELY INHIBITING WARMING DURING THE DAY...
AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER. WINDS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN AND VEER BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WIND FIELDS BECOMING
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WX. SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL ALSO OCCUR IN
THE MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...WARMING ALOFT IS ALSO EXPECTED...AND THERE
WILL LIKELY NOT BE TIME FOR MUCH SURFACE HEATING...WHICH IN THE END
WILL LIKELY PREVENT SEVERE WX. THE SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE WATCH IN
CASE IT CHANGES. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS TUESDAY EVENING...WITH
SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER AIR BUILDING IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND THEN RIPPLE ENE...PULLING THE FRONT
BACK NORTH INTO KY ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE
PRECIP.
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW UP FROM FRIDAY ONWARD.
THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT...TAKING THE FRONT AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH BY FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT
STALLS. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH...
KEEPING PRECIP IN OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITHOUT CLARITY AND
CONFIDENCE AS TO WHERE THE FRONT WILL END UP...HAVE HELD ONTO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH 08Z. MOST OF THESE HAVE NOT BROUGHT ANY CEILING OR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WHEN PASSING OVER A GIVEN LOCATION...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE VFR...ALTHOUGH WILL MENTION A WINDOW OF VCTS AT
ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15
KTS WILL ALSO BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY IN WIDE OPEN AREAS AND RIDGETOP
LOCATIONS. SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KTS HAVE ALSO OCCURRED WITH ANY
PASSING INTENSE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH CONVECTION
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD EVEN APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
GIVE WAY TO MVFR BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...AS MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
105 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 105 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH PROBABLY AS MANY
THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE ARE SHOWERS OUT THERE. HAVE BEEFED UP THE POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS. THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO BE
THE MAIN CULPRIT FOR THIS ACTIVITY...WITH EVEN AN EMBEDDED SURFACE
WAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH A LITTLE MORE SUBTLE WARM
FRONT STEMMING SOUTHEAST. THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE
CENTRAL KENTUCKY CONVECTION INTO OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4
HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT DOES WEAKEN AS IT HEADS TO OUR FAR EAST...WHERE
LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR IS HANGING A BIT MORE TOUGH. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...SO HAVE FOLLOWED THIS IDEA THROUGH DAWN. TEMPERATURES
ARE VARYING QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BOONEVILLE
MESONET...NORMALLY MORE OF A VALLEY LOCATION CURRENTLY REPORTING AT
59 DEGREES...WHILE THE QUICKSAND MESONET IS STILL IN THE MID 40S.
EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE IS THE WHITESBURG MESONET...WHICH STARTED OUT AT
A COOL 45 DEGREES AT MIDNIGHT. AFTER SOME MIXING TOOK PLACE IN THE
PAST HOUR...IT IS NOW REPORTING 61 DEGREES. EXPECT THIS GRADUAL
SCOURING OUT OF THE COOLER VALLEY AIR TO CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1148 PM EDT SUN OCT 5
2014
THE SHORT WAVE BLOSSOMED AS IT APPROACHED EASTERN KENTUCKY AND HAS
EVEN BEEN ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CHANGED THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. THE TIME STILL LOOKED GOOD
FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST. LOOKING AT THE 00 GMT NAM...LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM BUFR WAS MILDLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEEING A SUPER
CELL OR TWO DEVELOP. WILL BE MONITORING THE SITUATION AS THE NEW GFS
BEGINS TO COME IN. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 914 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL TRY TO PUT SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. CHANGED THE FORECAST FROM MEASURABLE SHOWERS TO
SPRINKLES FOR TONIGHT. IN THE MORNING THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE MODELS DIFFER QUITE A
BIT ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT SHAKY. WAS
CHECKING A TIME HEIGHT FORECAST FOR JACKSON COMPARING THE NAM AND GFS
AND THE DIFFERENCES WERE STARK. HAD TO DO A BIT OF A MODEL BLEND. THE
NAM BUFFER SOUNDING FOR JKL FOR 4 PM TOMORROW HAS SOME IMPRESSIVE
INSTABILITY WITH TOTAL TOTALS OF 52 AND A LIFTER INDEX OF -4 WITH
1200 JOULES OF CAPE. THE HELICITY IS FORECAST TO BE 254. WITH ALL OF
THESE PARAMETERS IN PLAY...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TOMORROW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
THE DOWN SIDE IS THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL IS LOW...SO WILL HAVE
TO SEE WHAT SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS DO WITH IT. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF COAST REGION KEEPING THE ADVANCEMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AT BAY. THIS WILL KEEP
MUCH OF THE PRECIP...IF ANY TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND MOSTLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE REST OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT.
MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DURING THE MONDAY
TIMER PERIOD...A STRONG JET STREAK PUSHES INTO THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO THE OH VALLEY ON MONDAY AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE ENTERS
THE REGION. THIS INFLUX OF ENERGY WILL COINCIDE WITH A SURFACE COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW WEAK TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY INTO MONDAY EVENING AND WITH THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR
AVAILABLE...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY BE ON TAP FOR
MONDAY EVENING AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SPC CONTINUES TO KEEP THE
ENTIRE CWA IN A 5% RISK WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA IN
A 15% RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. STILL BELIEVE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR
THIS EVENT WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH THE BEST INGREDIENTS STILL TO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST IN CENTRAL TN AND SOUTH CENTRAL KY. STILL...SOME
CELLS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE I-75 CORRIDOR SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THE THREAT IN THE HWO.
HEADING INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE CENTERED JUST ALONG THE NC COAST...WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE FRONT STALLED OUT ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN WITH PRECIP EXPECTED ALONG EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME AND WILL KEEP POPS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS FOR OUR AREA UNTIL
FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
TUESDAY. ADVECTION OF MILD AND MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THESES FEATURES WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS. DEEP INSTABILITY LOOKS
MARGINAL...WITH PRECIP LIKELY INHIBITING WARMING DURING THE DAY...
AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER. WINDS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN AND VEER BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WIND FIELDS BECOMING
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WX. SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL ALSO OCCUR IN
THE MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...WARMING ALOFT IS ALSO EXPECTED...AND THERE
WILL LIKELY NOT BE TIME FOR MUCH SURFACE HEATING...WHICH IN THE END
WILL LIKELY PREVENT SEVERE WX. THE SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE WATCH IN
CASE IT CHANGES. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS TUESDAY EVENING...WITH
SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER AIR BUILDING IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND THEN RIPPLE ENE...PULLING THE FRONT
BACK NORTH INTO KY ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE
PRECIP.
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW UP FROM FRIDAY ONWARD.
THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT...TAKING THE FRONT AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH BY FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT
STALLS. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH...
KEEPING PRECIP IN OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITHOUT CLARITY AND
CONFIDENCE AS TO WHERE THE FRONT WILL END UP...HAVE HELD ONTO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 914 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. SOME SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FIRST SHORT
WAVE. IN THE MORNING A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
AREA. THIS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE
INSTABILITY TOMORROW...SO THERE WILL A BE CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. PUT SOME IN THE FORECAST STARTING AT
AROUND 20Z. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON THE HEATING A CLOUD COVER. EXPECTING
VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. IFR IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
STRONGER STORMS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
342 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
WILL BE BRIEF THIS MORNING AS STRONG CONVECTION ENTERING OUR CWA
AND THE LATENESS OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z ECMWF WILL NOT ALLOW FOR A
LENGTHY DISCUSSION.
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND A 45KT LOW LEVEL JET IS HELPING TO FEED THIS STRONG
TO SOMETIMES SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY
OF S OK/SW AR INTO N TX ATTM. THREW OUT THE 00Z NAM OUTPUT AS IT
HAS A POOR HANDLING OF CURRENT CONVECTION. TODAY`S POP WAS BASED ON
THE HRRR/GFS/ECMWF/CMC OUTPUT WHICH WARRANTS HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR REGION TODAY. SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF
OUR REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE CONVECTION TODAY AND WHILE
THIS IS WARRANTED...DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
CONVECTION WITH THIS COMPLEX. HOWEVER...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
SVR WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
IF THE HRRR MODEL PANS OUT...THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD SWING
THROUGH OUR ENTIRE CWA TODAY BUT REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW LEFT
BEHIND FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION AND THE DEGREE OF AFTERNOON
HEATING WE ARE ABLE TO SEE. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
A RESULT. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR NORTHERN MOST ZONES OVERNIGHT
AS PROGS SUGGEST THAT WE COULD SEE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OVERNIGHT
BUT AGAIN...THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH A
WEAK BOUNDARY CAN REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT.
LOW POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO AFTERNOON HEATING.
FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE PROGS REMAIN IN POOR
AGREEMENT CONCERNING TIMING OF OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES. THE 00Z GFS
REMAINS THE FAST OUTLIER SO HAVE TRENDED TEMPS/POPS TO THE 00Z
ECMWF/CMC RUNS WHICH POINT TO A SLOWER TROUGH EJECTION FROM THE
WEST AND SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT INTO OUR REGION. THIS RESULT IN A
WET WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 85 69 91 70 91 / 50 20 20 10 10
MLU 84 66 90 67 91 / 50 30 20 10 20
DEQ 82 63 89 65 88 / 40 40 20 10 10
TXK 84 67 90 69 88 / 50 40 20 10 10
ELD 83 64 88 66 88 / 50 40 20 10 10
TYR 85 70 91 71 91 / 50 20 10 10 10
GGG 85 70 91 69 91 / 50 20 10 10 10
LFK 87 69 92 70 91 / 40 20 10 10 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
509 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
NW ONTARIO WITH A BROAD TROUGH DOMINATING THE CONUS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. A WEAK SHRTWV WAS SLIDING THROUGH UPPER MI WHILE A MUCH
STRONGER UPSTREAM SHRTWV LOBE WAS LOCATED OVER N CNTRL MANITOBA. AT
THE SFC...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILED OVER UPPER MI AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH INTO NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NE MN. ALTHOUGH MID CLOUDS WERE
SPREADING ACROSS W UPPER MI AND 850 MB TEMPS REMAINED NEAR
-3C...RELATIVELY DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD DECK HAS LIMITED ANY LAKE
EFFECT PCPN.
TODAY...EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND SFC HEATING
FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 50 AS WAA AND BREEZY SW WINDS
DEVELOP AHEAD THE SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH/FRONT ADVANCE TOWARD
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PCPN...WITH
MOST OF THE RAIN HOLDING OFF OVER THE WEST AFTER 00Z/TUE.
TONIGHT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE INFLOW AND ONLY MODERATE 700-300
QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...POPS WERE LOWERED A BIT
INTO THE 40-60 RANGE GREATEST OVER THE NW THIS EVENING AND OVER THE
ERN CWA LATE. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH SO THAT NO
SNOW IS EXPECTED AS THE COLDER AIR ONLY MOVES IN AFTER THE FORCING
AND DEEP MOISTURE DEPART TO THE EAST. ANY PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.1 INCH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
WET/UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LINGER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE SECOND HALF
AS THE PESKY LOW OVER ONTARIO FINALLY EXITS INTO CENTRAL AND N
QUEBEC.
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOR TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W THIRD OF THE
CWA AS THE NEARLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO GETS AS
CLOSE AS IT/S GOING TO TO UPPER MI...WITH THE PRIMARY TROUGH
EXTENDING ALL THE WAY DOWN THROUGH IL AT 18Z TUESDAY. 850MB TEMPS
ARE MODEST AROUND 0 TO 4C...AND WITH SFC TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S ON W-WSW WINDS...SNOW IS BASICALLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION AT THIS POINT.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW AS COOLER AIR SLIDES IN
BEHIND THE EXITING SFC-500MB LOW. EXPECT THE LOW TO SHIFT BACK UP TO
N ONTARIO BY 00Z THURSDAY. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO THE -3 TO -8C
RANGE ON UPSLOPE W-WNW LOW LEVEL WINDS. AN INCREASE PRESSURE
GRADIENT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN WINDS
HOVERING AROUND 20KTS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. GUSTS NEAR
30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DRIER AIR WILL INVADE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS COOL
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA...AND THE MAIN
TROUGH SHIFTS E. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LOOK FOR SOME RETURN FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND STATES. THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A SFC LOW/TROUGH MOVING
FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT 18Z SUNDAY. SHOULD
SEE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AT
THE EARLIEST. A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION MAY BE IN THE CARDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
ALTHOUGH SOME BKN SC MAY IMPACT MAINLY CMX EARLY THIS MRNG AS A
DISTURBANCE SWINGS THRU THE UPR LKS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL 3
TAF SITES WITH RELATIVELY DRY LLVLS. THIS DRY AIR WL LINGER THRU
TODAY...RESULTING IN PERSISTENT VFR WX. GUSTY WINDS WL DVLP AT THE 3
SITES BY MON AFTN WITH DAYTIME/HEATING MIXING. LATER TOWARD
SUNSET...EXPECT CLDS TO BE ON THE INCRS W-E IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ROTATING THRU THE UPR LKS ARND DEEP LO PRES IN NW
ONTARIO. SOME -SHRA WL IMPACT MAINLY CMX. IN THE ABSENCE OF SGNFT
LLVL MSTR INFLOW...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE AT THE 3
AIRPORTS. THE BEST CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WL BE LATER IN THE EVNG
AT CMX...WHICH WL BE CLOSER TO THE SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING
ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
A SURFACE LOW ROTATING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT AND GENERALLY
SW WINDS OF 15-30KTS TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY (UP TO 30KTS)...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND
DECREASES WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
325 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2014
...Unsettled and Wet Weather for the End of This Week...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 258 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
An upper level disturbance is currently over the Missouri Ozarks
and moving East. Most of the showers have come to an end for our
local area with the majority of the active weather just to our
south. Today will remain mostly dry. Another disturbance will move
through the upper level flow tonight and develop scattered showers
and perhaps some isolated thunder mainly over the eastern half of the
Missouri Ozarks late tonight and by early tomorrow morning.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
After some morning showers on Tuesday...the rest of the day looks
pretty good with warmer temperatures and afternoon sunshine.
Heights will rise and the upper level pattern will begin to
flatten out somewhat overhead. Above average temperatures in the
lower 80s can be expected by the middle of the week
Starting Wednesday night and through the end of the week...the
weather pattern becomes much more unsettled and wet for the
Missouri Ozarks. A front drops down on Thursday and is a slow
mover at the same time several upper level waves move west to east
in the flow. Deep moisture increases and some tropical moisture
leftover from the tropical system currently in the Pacific moves
over the region.
PW values may be close to 2 inches which is actually kinda high for
this time of year by the end of the week. Multiple rounds of
convection is expected to develop starting late Wednesday through
the end of the week. Severe weather is not expected at this time
but heavy rainfall potential will be something to watch for.
Several inches of rainfall look likely. Blended with the ECMWF
more than the GFS for next weekend with showers and thunderstorms
lingering through the weekend. The front looks like it will stall
out just to our south with cooler temperatures in the 60s on the
back side of the front for next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014
Scattered showers/isolated thunder continue to progress quickly
southeast from central MO into Oklahoma. HRRR has had a pretty
good handle on this tonight and will continue to follow pretty
close for guidance. Deeper convection across central OK where much
better instability exists and not expecting that type of activity
here in the Ozarks tonight. For the TAF sites, like what we
forecast in the 00z TAFS with VCSH wording at the TAF sites
continuing until around 10-11z time frame, with roughly 10kft bases.
So, expecting VFR conditions to continue through the period.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1138 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014
A long wave trough over eastern North America will remain in place
early in the week. A couple of disturbances will move southeast
through the region and with a nw-se oriented baroclinic zone in
place, will see some increased isentropic ascent as times with
chances for some chances for showers. The best chances look to be
over the northeast portion of the cwfa.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014
We will see a gradual upper level pattern change as the high
latitude upper low north of the Great Lakes shifts off to the east
and a split, more progressive, upper flow pattern develops over
the central CONUS. Increased moisture will spread north and
northeast into the area with a sharpening west-east warm front
lifting into the region Wed-Thu. An almost "backdoorish" front drops
south through the region Thu night into Fri as Canadian high
pressure pushes south into the northern Plains and upper Midwest.
We have fairly high rain chances in the forecast Wed night through
Fri but chances will continue into the weekend as the front tries
to lift back to the north as another shortwave moves into the
central and southern Plains.
Overall weather related impacts: We will need to watch the potential
for mounting rainfall totals and convection/tstm chances later in
the week. Heavier rain chances look to be Thu-Fri with the frontal
boundary pushing back to the south.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014
Scattered showers/isolated thunder continue to progress quickly
southeast from central MO into Oklahoma. HRRR has had a pretty
good handle on this tonight and will continue to follow pretty
close for guidance. Deeper convection across central OK where much
better instability exists and not expecting that type of activity
here in the Ozarks tonight. For the TAF sites, like what we
forecast in the 00z TAFS with VCSH wording at the TAF sites
continuing until around 10-11z time frame, with roughly 10kft bases.
So, expecting VFR conditions to continue through the period.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1205 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.AVIAION...
06/06Z TAFS...
LINE OF TSTMS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL OK THIS EVENING. STORMS
WILL BE SOUTH OF CNTRL OK SITES BY 06Z AND ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN EAST OF KLAW/KSPS AS THEY MOVE SEWD. WITH STORMS MOVING AWAY
FROM TAF SITES...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014/
.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO PRECIP/WEATHER...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER HAS INCREASED A SKOSH
MORE ACROSS NRN OK THIS EVENING... NOW THAT THE ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY HAS INTERACTED WITH A MORE SUPPORTIVE MOISTURE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NRN OK. GIVEN THE UPTICK IN DEVELOPMENT AND
OVERALL TRACK... INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER
FOR THE OKC METRO OVERNIGHT. THE 01Z RAP APPEARS TO HAVE AN OKAY
HANDLE ON DEVELOPMENT... WITH AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TMRW MORNING AS THE SFC LOW LINGERS OVER WEST TX...
WITH AN INCREASING SFC TROUGH EXTENDING INTO SERN OK. AS THE SFC
OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH S/SE TONIGHT... IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO AN OVERALL BETTER ENVIRONMENT... INCREASING SUPPORT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL OK... AND PORTIONS OF NRN TX.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014/
AVIATION...
06/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING AT AND NEAR
KPNC AS ACTIVITY OVER KANSAS SPREADS SOUTHEAST WITH JET STREAK -
S/WV TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...SOUTH AND EAST OF
OUR TERMINALS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATE TO PRECIP/WX...
DISCUSSION...
INTERESTING FORECAST THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK H500
SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH. CURRENTLY... ACROSS
KANSAS... AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY MOVE S/SE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ROOTED ALONG
A WEAK ISENTROPIC RESPONSE... SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 310 TO 315K... THE
LOCATION OF THE BEST MOISTURE WITHIN THE MID LEVELS. GIVEN 17Z
SOUNDING FROM LAMONT (LMN) IN NRN OK... THE LL/BL REMAINS
NOTICABLE DRY... AND COMPARED TO SFC OBS... THE RETURNS VISIBLE
ON RADAR ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK ARE LIKELY REPRESENTATIVE OF VIRGA.
HOWEVER... AS THE WAVE PROGRESSES S/SE THROUGH THE EVENING...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER AS WELL GIVEN COLD TEMPS ALOFT.
FURTHER SOUTH... ALONG THE RED RIVER/TEXOMA REGION OF SOUTH
CENTRAL OK/WRN N TX. DECENT WAA HAS CONTINUED TO TRANSPORT A
MODEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE LL/BL. COMBINED WITH A WEAK
SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE LLANO ESTACADO/CAPROCK
IN WEST TX... THERE REMAINS ENOUGH FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDER TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE KS/NRN
OK ACTIVITY.
AT THE MOMENT... NOT OVERLY CONVINCED OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP IN
CENTRAL OK/THE METRO. HOWEVER... IF YOU ALLOW ME TO HEDGE A BIT...
GIVEN THE MOISTURE PROFILE/LIFT... WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
DRIZZLE DEVELOPED LATE TONIGHT... WITH BEST CHANCES EAST OF I-35.
JTK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 143 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE VERY WEAK FRONT THAT IS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA TODAY
WILL LIE OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT WHEN A FAST-MOVING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES. THESE FEATURES WILL INTERSECT GREATER
MOISTURE IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND GIVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THROUGH MID-WEEK VERY
HOT WEATHER WILL QUICKLY RETURN. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S. BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES WILL BECOME
STRONGER OVER OKLAHOMA AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. LONGER-TERM MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
AGREE ON THE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY TIME FRAME FOR THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN IN OKLAHOMA. A RE-PHASING OF THE TWO BRANCHES OF THE
WESTERLIES IS EXPECTED IN THE WEEKEND WHEN RAIN CHANCES END AND
COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 57 87 60 92 / 20 10 10 0
HOBART OK 55 88 59 92 / 10 10 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 61 89 64 94 / 20 10 10 0
GAGE OK 46 88 52 90 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 51 83 55 91 / 20 10 10 0
DURANT OK 63 85 65 91 / 30 20 10 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1151 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014
.UPDATE...EVENING AND FOR 06Z AVIATION
&&
.EVENING UPDATE...
INCLUDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE FAR NRN AREAS ALONG
THE KY BORDER. SHORT-WAVE ENERGY ACROSS IL/IN IS HELPING TO
GENERATE THIS CONVECTION...WHILE STRONGER CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE PLAINS DOWNSTREAM FROM A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND UPPER
LEVEL JET. THE LATTER IS FORECAST FROM THE HRRR AND THE NEWEST 00Z
MODEL DATA TO REACH THE WRN HALF OF OUR CWA BY 12Z. INCREASED POPS
TOWARDS 12Z AS A RESULT.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA ARE DEVELOPING NEAR THE KY/TN BORDER. MAY KEEP A TEMPO
TSRA IN AT CKV AS A RESULT. HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION DURING THIS TAF PERIOD WILL INCLUDE SOME MORNING
SHRA/TSRA ROUGHLY BETWEEN 11-15Z FOR CKV AND BNA...AND THEN FOR
ALL TERMINALS AFTER ROUGHLY 19Z. DURING THOSE TIMES...CIGS/VSBYS
MAY LOWER INTO IFR-MVFR BRIEFLY FROM CONVECTION...AND STRONG WINDS
AND HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 19Z.
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD...BUT
MAINLY BETWEEN 14-22Z MONDAY. MAY PULL THE LLWS MENTION OUT OF
THE CKV TAF SINCE WINDS HAVE NOT TAPERED AS MUCH AS EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1146 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014
.AVIATION...
A COMPLEX OF STORMS CURRENTLY ORGANIZING ACROSS OKLAHOMA WILL BE
THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN OVERNIGHT. MODELS...INCLUDING
HI RES SOLUTIONS...HAVE BEEN HAVING A TOUGH TIME SHOWING ANY RUN
TO RUN CONTINUITY. OUR CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE OKLAHOMA
CONVECTION WILL REACH THE RED RIVER COUNTIES BETWEEN 06 AND 07Z AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED IN NATURE AND MAY WEAKEN SOME AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SINCE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. WE WILL MAINTAIN A VCTS AT THE METROPLEX
AIRPORTS FROM 09 TO 12Z AND IN WACO FROM 11 TO 15Z.
ANOTHER AVIATION CONCERN OVERNIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WILL BE MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY. KFWS VAD SHOWS A 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET IN
PLACE AND MVFR CEILINGS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AROUND THE BALCONES
ESCARPMENT. WE EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO REACH WACO BETWEEN 08 AND
09Z AND THE METROPLEX TAF SITES SHORTLY AFTER THAT. THE LOW
CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY
CLEAR THE CEILINGS OUT EARLIER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AT SPEEDS BETWEEN
7 AND 13 KNOTS ALONG WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY.
79
&&
.UPDATE...
DISPARITY IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
CONTINUES WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. THE 00Z NAM IS COMPLETELY
DRY...BUT SINCE IT FAILS TO GENERATE THE ACTIVITY ALREADY ONGOING
IN OKLAHOMA...IT IS LIKELY FAILING TO RESOLVE THE STRENGTH OF THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL
FRONTAL FORCING...WHICH WILL BE ABSENT IN NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT. THE
00Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWS A CAPPING INVERSION THAT ADDITIONAL WARM
ADVECTION...AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...SHOULD ONLY STRENGTHEN.
EVEN SO...THE INITIATION OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER FORCING APPROACHES. WITHOUT
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WHICH IS UNLIKELY...ANY COLD POOL WILL
LIKELY BE INSUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SURFACE PARCELS TO JOIN THE
CONVECTIVE PARTY. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST RAP SUGGESTS OUTFLOW FROM
THE STORMS TO OUR NORTH MAY REACH THE RED RIVER BY DAYBREAK...THE
IMPULSE WILL HAVE PASSED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THEN.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014/
IT HAS BEEN A PLEASANTLY WARM FALL AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH HAVE
HELPED BRING 60 DEGREE DEW POINTS UP THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO
THE METROPLEX. THE AREA OF STRATUS THAT MOVED INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
NORTHEAST INTO THE CORSICANA AREA HAD SCATTERED OUT AS OF MID
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAD WARMED INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
EVENING.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
/TEXAS TECH WRF AND HRRR/ INDICATED THAT STORMS WILL FORM ACROSS
THE AREA BETWEEN WICHITA FALLS AND ABILENE BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND
THESE STORMS WOULD THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
THE NAM...GFS...CMC...SREF AND ECMWF DIFFER IN WHERE THE STORMS
WILL DEVELOP BUT SHOW A SIMILAR SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF WHAT
EVER DEVELOPS. GIVEN THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SOME 1 TO 1.5
INCH HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN ZONES
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO HAVE LEFT SOME 20 PERCENT POPS
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.
AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...WE WILL
BE DRY WITH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
WE CONTINUE TO HAVE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. THE GFS BRING THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
SIMON NORTHEAST ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE MEXICAN STATE OF
SONORA DURING THE 48 TO 72 HOUR PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE LOW THAT WILL FORM OVER
ARIZONA... WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA ACROSS NEW
MEXICO THEN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO OKLAHOMA.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE NORTHWESTERN
ZONES BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WOULD THEN SPREAD
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN
FORECASTED TO SINK DOWN THE PLAINS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ZONE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE
RAIN IS FORECAST TO END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER WITH THE ONSET AND ENDING OF THE RAIN
AND IS ALSO WETTER THAN THE ECMWF.
THE ECMWF BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF SIMON AND THE MID-LATITUDE LOW
FARTHER NORTH. THIS RESULTS IN RAIN CHANCES NOT STARTING UNTIL
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES WITH RAIN CHANCES
SPREADING SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST....RAIN
CHANCES END FROM SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
HAVE CONTINUED TO GO ALONG WITH A COMPROMISE BLEND THAT LEANS
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS.
58
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 66 87 72 93 73 / 40 10 10 5 5
WACO, TX 66 88 71 92 71 / 30 20 10 5 5
PARIS, TX 62 84 67 88 68 / 30 20 20 10 5
DENTON, TX 63 88 69 93 71 / 40 10 10 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 62 86 69 92 69 / 30 10 20 5 5
DALLAS, TX 67 87 72 92 73 / 40 10 10 5 5
TERRELL, TX 65 86 71 93 72 / 40 20 10 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 66 86 71 91 72 / 30 20 10 10 5
TEMPLE, TX 67 88 70 92 70 / 20 20 10 5 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 63 89 67 94 69 / 40 10 10 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
79/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1150 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
ITS A DIFFICULT DAY TO ANTICIPATE SPECIFIC CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION VERY
FAR IN ADVANCE FOR A FORECAST. HAVE AGAIN UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. WILL EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF PRECIP LATER TODAY IS LOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1014 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
UPDATED TO BLEND LATEST OBS INTO THE FORECAST. THIS INCLUDES
RADAR...WITH FAST MOVING CONVECTION AFFECTING THE REGION THIS
MORNING. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 830 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
HAVE FRESHENED UP THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS FIRST WAVE OF
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 10 AM AND 1 PM. ONCE
THIS MOVES THROUGH...MORE OF A LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA. THIS WILL THEN
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST THE LONGEST. THERE LIKELY NOT BE
MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION...HOWEVER
AT LEAST SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BUILD IN A SMALL WINDOW
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE LINE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. EMBEDDED
CELLS WITHIN THIS LINE WILL POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PIVOTING
ACROSS THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS THE CAROLINA COAST. ALOFT...A MASSIVE TROUGH REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AS THE CORE OF THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS FOUND ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN SEVERAL BOUTS OF THUNDER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
OVERNIGHT...AS A LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP ACROSS THE AREA...ALLOWING A
MORE SUBTLE SURFACE WARM FRONT TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF
THE COOLER VALLEY AIR HAS MIXED OUT...WITH ONLY A FEW SPOTS HANGING
ONTO THE 40S. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING IN THE 50S...WITH
EVEN A FEW 60S ALSO NOTED.
AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...AS STOUT
INTERMITTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WHILE THERE IS
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
WAVES AS WELL AS THE INFLUENCE FROM CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
SOME UNCERTAINTY. AS SUCH...HAVE RELIED ON A GENERAL BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE.
EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS
THE AREA...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. POPS THEN REALLY
RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE FIRST SHORT WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED AS LEAN...HOWEVER
THE DYNAMICS AND SUBSEQUENT WIND PROFILE REMAIN BEEFY. THE STORM MODE
LOOKS MORE SUPERCELLULAR...AND WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME ISOLATED
CELLS ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY EXHIBITING SUPERCELLULAR
CHARACTERISTICS. WET BULB AND FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE NEAR OR
BELOW 9K FEET...WHICH WILL MAKE UP FOR THE LACK OF MORE INTENSE
UPDRAFTS HAMPERED BY THE LIMITED INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WINDS WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH 40 TO 50 KTS OF WIND AT 4 TO 5K FEET OFF OF
THE GROUND.
CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO MORE OF SEVERAL LINES OR
ELONGATED CLUSTERS TOWARDS DUSK AS THE CORE OF THE FORCING MOVES IN
OVERHEAD. PWATS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...HOWEVER ANY TRAINING
CELLS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PUT DOWN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
PLACES. ONCE THE FIRST WAVE MOVES OUT LATER THIS EVENING...A BRIEF
REPRIEVE WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
MOVES IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS...WITH
AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN
WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AND GOOD DYNAMICS DESPITE WEAK
INSTABILITY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN AND THE EVOLUTION
OF WEATHER SYSTEMS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A
LARGE AND VERY ENERGETIC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH OR WEAK
FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS UPPER LOW WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGIONS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. A SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST
TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE
SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL EVOLVE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY DRAGS A SLUGGISH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS AN AREA EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WOULD BE OUR
SECOND WEATHER MAKER IN THE EXTENDED...SHOULD THE MODELS PROVE TO BE
CORRECT. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM FORMATION
WITH BOTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEMS THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS SHOWING UP...AND WITH STRONG MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVEL WIND FIELDS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PERIODS WILL FEATURE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR NOW...WITH GENERAL RAIN SHOWERS DURING
THE MORNING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH
THE WARMEST READINGS OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS EASTERN
KENTUCKY LIES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING MID LATITUDE
CYCLONE. ONCE THE INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A COOLER AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT COOLER DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER...PRECIPITATION...AND AN AIR MASS CHANGE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S AND LOW TO MID 60S EACH DAY RESPECTIVELY. SUNDAY COULD SEE
A BRIEF REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES...AS WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE RAIN
CHANCES OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN COMING FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAK WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG IT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 830 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
A COUPLE OF LINES OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THE FIRST LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 14 AND 17Z
FROM WEST TO EAST. A LOT OF THIS CONVECTION IS ELEVATED IN
NATURE...SO ONLY A TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS IS
EXPECTED...WITH MAINLY A VFR STATUS REIGNING. THE SECOND LINE OF
CONVECTION WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 20 AND 01Z. STRONGER
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS LINE...WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR EXPECTED. LOWER CEILINGS WILL THEN SCATTER OUT IN THE
EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...LINGERING THE LONGEST IN FAR
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS...WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS WILL BE COMMON TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1015 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
UPDATED TO BLEND LATEST OBS INTO THE FORECAST. THIS INCLUDES
RADAR...WITH FAST MOVING CONVECTION AFFECTING THE REGION THIS
MORNING. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 830 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
HAVE FRESHENED UP THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS FIRST WAVE OF
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 10 AM AND 1 PM. ONCE
THIS MOVES THROUGH...MORE OF A LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA. THIS WILL THEN
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST THE LONGEST. THERE LIKELY NOT BE
MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION...HOWEVER
AT LEAST SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BUILD IN A SMALL WINDOW
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE LINE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. EMBEDDED
CELLS WITHIN THIS LINE WILL POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PIVOTING
ACROSS THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS THE CAROLINA COAST. ALOFT...A MASSIVE TROUGH REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AS THE CORE OF THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS FOUND ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN SEVERAL BOUTS OF THUNDER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
OVERNIGHT...AS A LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP ACROSS THE AREA...ALLOWING A
MORE SUBTLE SURFACE WARM FRONT TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF
THE COOLER VALLEY AIR HAS MIXED OUT...WITH ONLY A FEW SPOTS HANGING
ONTO THE 40S. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING IN THE 50S...WITH
EVEN A FEW 60S ALSO NOTED.
AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...AS STOUT
INTERMITTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WHILE THERE IS
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
WAVES AS WELL AS THE INFLUENCE FROM CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
SOME UNCERTAINTY. AS SUCH...HAVE RELIED ON A GENERAL BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE.
EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS
THE AREA...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. POPS THEN REALLY
RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE FIRST SHORT WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED AS LEAN...HOWEVER
THE DYNAMICS AND SUBSEQUENT WIND PROFILE REMAIN BEEFY. THE STORM MODE
LOOKS MORE SUPERCELLULAR...AND WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME ISOLATED
CELLS ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY EXHIBITING SUPERCELLULAR
CHARACTERISTICS. WET BULB AND FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE NEAR OR
BELOW 9K FEET...WHICH WILL MAKE UP FOR THE LACK OF MORE INTENSE
UPDRAFTS HAMPERED BY THE LIMITED INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WINDS WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH 40 TO 50 KTS OF WIND AT 4 TO 5K FEET OFF OF
THE GROUND.
CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO MORE OF SEVERAL LINES OR
ELONGATED CLUSTERS TOWARDS DUSK AS THE CORE OF THE FORCING MOVES IN
OVERHEAD. PWATS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...HOWEVER ANY TRAINING
CELLS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PUT DOWN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
PLACES. ONCE THE FIRST WAVE MOVES OUT LATER THIS EVENING...A BRIEF
REPRIEVE WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
MOVES IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS...WITH
AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN
WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AND GOOD DYNAMICS DESPITE WEAK
INSTABILITY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN AND THE EVOLUTION
OF WEATHER SYSTEMS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A
LARGE AND VERY ENERGETIC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH OR WEAK
FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS UPPER LOW WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGIONS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. A SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST
TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE
SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL EVOLVE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY DRAGS A SLUGGISH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS AN AREA EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WOULD BE OUR
SECOND WEATHER MAKER IN THE EXTENDED...SHOULD THE MODELS PROVE TO BE
CORRECT. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM FORMATION
WITH BOTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEMS THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS SHOWING UP...AND WITH STRONG MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVEL WIND FIELDS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PERIODS WILL FEATURE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR NOW...WITH GENERAL RAIN SHOWERS DURING
THE MORNING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH
THE WARMEST READINGS OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS EASTERN
KENTUCKY LIES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING MID LATITUDE
CYCLONE. ONCE THE INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A COOLER AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT COOLER DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER...PRECIPITATION...AND AN AIR MASS CHANGE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S AND LOW TO MID 60S EACH DAY RESPECTIVELY. SUNDAY COULD SEE
A BRIEF REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES...AS WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE RAIN
CHANCES OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN COMING FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAK WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG IT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 830 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
A COUPLE OF LINES OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THE FIRST LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 14 AND 17Z
FROM WEST TO EAST. A LOT OF THIS CONVECTION IS ELEVATED IN
NATURE...SO ONLY A TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS IS
EXPECTED...WITH MAINLY A VFR STATUS REIGNING. THE SECOND LINE OF
CONVECTION WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 20 AND 01Z. STRONGER
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS LINE...WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR EXPECTED. LOWER CEILINGS WILL THEN SCATTER OUT IN THE
EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...LINGERING THE LONGEST IN FAR
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS...WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS WILL BE COMMON TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
830 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
HAVE FRESHENED UP THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS FIRST WAVE OF
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 10 AM AND 1 PM. ONCE
THIS MOVES THROUGH...MORE OF A LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA. THIS WILL THEN
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST THE LONGEST. THERE LIKELY NOT BE
MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION...HOWEVER
AT LEAST SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BUILD IN A SMALL WINDOW
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE LINE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. EMBEDDED
CELLS WITHIN THIS LINE WILL POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PIVOTING
ACROSS THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS THE CAROLINA COAST. ALOFT...A MASSIVE TROUGH REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AS THE CORE OF THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS FOUND ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN SEVERAL BOUTS OF THUNDER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
OVERNIGHT...AS A LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP ACROSS THE AREA...ALLOWING A
MORE SUBTLE SURFACE WARM FRONT TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF
THE COOLER VALLEY AIR HAS MIXED OUT...WITH ONLY A FEW SPOTS HANGING
ONTO THE 40S. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING IN THE 50S...WITH
EVEN A FEW 60S ALSO NOTED.
AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...AS STOUT
INTERMITTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WHILE THERE IS
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
WAVES AS WELL AS THE INFLUENCE FROM CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
SOME UNCERTAINTY. AS SUCH...HAVE RELIED ON A GENERAL BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE.
EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS
THE AREA...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. POPS THEN REALLY
RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE FIRST SHORT WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED AS LEAN...HOWEVER
THE DYNAMICS AND SUBSEQUENT WIND PROFILE REMAIN BEEFY. THE STORM MODE
LOOKS MORE SUPERCELLULAR...AND WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME ISOLATED
CELLS ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY EXHIBITING SUPERCELLULAR
CHARACTERISTICS. WET BULB AND FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE NEAR OR
BELOW 9K FEET...WHICH WILL MAKE UP FOR THE LACK OF MORE INTENSE
UPDRAFTS HAMPERED BY THE LIMITED INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WINDS WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH 40 TO 50 KTS OF WIND AT 4 TO 5K FEET OFF OF
THE GROUND.
CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO MORE OF SEVERAL LINES OR
ELONGATED CLUSTERS TOWARDS DUSK AS THE CORE OF THE FORCING MOVES IN
OVERHEAD. PWATS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...HOWEVER ANY TRAINING
CELLS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PUT DOWN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
PLACES. ONCE THE FIRST WAVE MOVES OUT LATER THIS EVENING...A BRIEF
REPRIEVE WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
MOVES IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS...WITH
AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN
WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AND GOOD DYNAMICS DESPITE WEAK
INSTABILITY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN AND THE EVOLUTION
OF WEATHER SYSTEMS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A
LARGE AND VERY ENERGETIC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH OR WEAK
FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS UPPER LOW WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGIONS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. A SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST
TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE
SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL EVOLVE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY DRAGS A SLUGGISH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS AN AREA EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WOULD BE OUR
SECOND WEATHER MAKER IN THE EXTENDED...SHOULD THE MODELS PROVE TO BE
CORRECT. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM FORMATION
WITH BOTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEMS THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS SHOWING UP...AND WITH STRONG MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVEL WIND FIELDS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PERIODS WILL FEATURE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR NOW...WITH GENERAL RAIN SHOWERS DURING
THE MORNING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH
THE WARMEST READINGS OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS EASTERN
KENTUCKY LIES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING MID LATITUDE
CYCLONE. ONCE THE INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A COOLER AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT COOLER DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER...PRECIPITATION...AND AN AIR MASS CHANGE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S AND LOW TO MID 60S EACH DAY RESPECTIVELY. SUNDAY COULD SEE
A BRIEF REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES...AS WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE RAIN
CHANCES OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN COMING FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAK WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG IT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 830 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
A COUPLE OF LINES OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THE FIRST LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 14 AND 17Z
FROM WEST TO EAST. A LOT OF THIS CONVECTION IS ELEVATED IN
NATURE...SO ONLY A TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS IS
EXPECTED...WITH MAINLY A VFR STATUS REIGNING. THE SECOND LINE OF
CONVECTION WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 20 AND 01Z. STRONGER
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS LINE...WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR EXPECTED. LOWER CEILINGS WILL THEN SCATTER OUT IN THE
EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...LINGERING THE LONGEST IN FAR
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS...WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS WILL BE COMMON TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
823 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST. DID MENTION HEAVY
RAIN...BUT ANY MORE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ISOLATED...AS CURRENT
TRENDS INDICATE SOME WEAKENING. TEMPS ADJUSTED...AS THEY WILL BE
SLOWER TO WARM WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...BUT SHOULD RECOVER FAST
IN THE AFTERNOON. /14/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 06/12Z TAFS...INTENSE LINE OF TSTMS AFFECTING TYR/GGG/SHV
TO BEGIN THIS TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR CIGS...REDUCED VSBYS AND WIND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35-40KTS WITH THIS LINE OF CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE
VCNTY SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED THIS MORNING BUT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AT TXK/ELD AS CONVECTION MOVES SOUTH. LFK/MLU TERMINALS MAY STILL
BE UNDER THE GUN AS LINE OF TSTMS MOVES SOUTH AND EAST. CONVECTION
SHOULD GRADUALLY WRAP UP BY LATE MORNING ALONG THE I-20 TERMINALS
AND EARLY AFTERNOON FARTHER SOUTH AT LFK. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY
FROM THE SOUTH OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WITH SPEEDS FROM 5-10 KTS BUT
WIDELY VARYING WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN AREAS OF CONVECTION. FOG AND
LOW STRATUS WILL BE A CONCERN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
WINDS DROP OFF OVERNIGHT AND GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
/19/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WILL BE BRIEF THIS MORNING AS STRONG CONVECTION ENTERING OUR CWA
AND THE LATENESS OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z ECMWF WILL NOT ALLOW FOR A
LENGTHY DISCUSSION.
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND A 45KT LOW LEVEL JET IS HELPING TO FEED THIS STRONG
TO SOMETIMES SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY
OF S OK/SW AR INTO N TX ATTM. THREW OUT THE 00Z NAM OUTPUT AS IT
HAS A POOR HANDLING OF CURRENT CONVECTION. TODAY`S POP WAS BASED ON
THE HRRR/GFS/ECMWF/CMC OUTPUT WHICH WARRANTS HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR REGION TODAY. SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF
OUR REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE CONVECTION TODAY AND WHILE
THIS IS WARRANTED...DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
CONVECTION WITH THIS COMPLEX. HOWEVER...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
SVR WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
IF THE HRRR MODEL PANS OUT...THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD SWING
THROUGH OUR ENTIRE CWA TODAY BUT REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW LEFT
BEHIND FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION AND THE DEGREE OF AFTERNOON
HEATING WE ARE ABLE TO SEE. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
A RESULT. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR NORTHERN MOST ZONES OVERNIGHT
AS PROGS SUGGEST THAT WE COULD SEE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OVERNIGHT
BUT AGAIN...THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH A
WEAK BOUNDARY CAN REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT.
LOW POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO AFTERNOON HEATING.
FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE PROGS REMAIN IN POOR
AGREEMENT CONCERNING TIMING OF OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES. THE 00Z GFS
REMAINS THE FAST OUTLIER SO HAVE TRENDED TEMPS/POPS TO THE 00Z
ECMWF/CMC RUNS WHICH POINT TO A SLOWER TROUGH EJECTION FROM THE
WEST AND SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT INTO OUR REGION. THIS RESULT IN A
WET WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 85 69 91 70 91 / 50 20 20 10 10
MLU 84 66 90 67 91 / 50 30 20 10 20
DEQ 82 63 89 65 88 / 40 40 20 10 10
TXK 84 67 90 69 88 / 40 40 20 10 10
ELD 83 64 88 66 88 / 40 40 20 10 10
TYR 85 70 91 71 91 / 60 20 10 10 10
GGG 85 70 91 69 91 / 60 20 10 10 10
LFK 87 69 92 70 91 / 70 20 10 10 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
701 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06/12Z TAFS...INTENSE LINE OF TSTMS AFFECTING TYR/GGG/SHV
TO BEGIN THIS TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR CIGS...REDUCED VSBYS AND WIND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35-40KTS WITH THIS LINE OF CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE
VCNTY SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED THIS MORNING BUT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AT TXK/ELD AS CONVECTION MOVES SOUTH. LFK/MLU TERMINALS MAY STILL
BE UNDER THE GUN AS LINE OF TSTMS MOVES SOUTH AND EAST. CONVECTION
SHOULD GRADUALLY WRAP UP BY LATE MORNING ALONG THE I-20 TERMINALS
AND EARLY AFTERNOON FARTHER SOUTH AT LFK. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY
FROM THE SOUTH OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WITH SPEEDS FROM 5-10 KTS BUT
WIDELY VARYING WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN AREAS OF CONVECTION. FOG AND
LOW STRATUS WILL BE A CONCERN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
WINDS DROP OFF OVERNIGHT AND GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
/19/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WILL BE BRIEF THIS MORNING AS STRONG CONVECTION ENTERING OUR CWA
AND THE LATENESS OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z ECMWF WILL NOT ALLOW FOR A
LENGTHY DISCUSSION.
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND A 45KT LOW LEVEL JET IS HELPING TO FEED THIS STRONG
TO SOMETIMES SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY
OF S OK/SW AR INTO N TX ATTM. THREW OUT THE 00Z NAM OUTPUT AS IT
HAS A POOR HANDLING OF CURRENT CONVECTION. TODAY`S POP WAS BASED ON
THE HRRR/GFS/ECMWF/CMC OUTPUT WHICH WARRANTS HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR REGION TODAY. SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF
OUR REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE CONVECTION TODAY AND WHILE
THIS IS WARRANTED...DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
CONVECTION WITH THIS COMPLEX. HOWEVER...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
SVR WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
IF THE HRRR MODEL PANS OUT...THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD SWING
THROUGH OUR ENTIRE CWA TODAY BUT REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW LEFT
BEHIND FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION AND THE DEGREE OF AFTERNOON
HEATING WE ARE ABLE TO SEE. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
A RESULT. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR NORTHERN MOST ZONES OVERNIGHT
AS PROGS SUGGEST THAT WE COULD SEE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OVERNIGHT
BUT AGAIN...THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH A
WEAK BOUNDARY CAN REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT.
LOW POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO AFTERNOON HEATING.
FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE PROGS REMAIN IN POOR
AGREEMENT CONCERNING TIMING OF OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES. THE 00Z GFS
REMAINS THE FAST OUTLIER SO HAVE TRENDED TEMPS/POPS TO THE 00Z
ECMWF/CMC RUNS WHICH POINT TO A SLOWER TROUGH EJECTION FROM THE
WEST AND SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT INTO OUR REGION. THIS RESULT IN A
WET WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 85 69 91 70 91 / 50 20 20 10 10
MLU 84 66 90 67 91 / 50 30 20 10 20
DEQ 82 63 89 65 88 / 40 40 20 10 10
TXK 84 67 90 69 88 / 50 40 20 10 10
ELD 83 64 88 66 88 / 50 40 20 10 10
TYR 85 70 91 71 91 / 50 20 10 10 10
GGG 85 70 91 69 91 / 50 20 10 10 10
LFK 87 69 92 70 91 / 40 20 10 10 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
732 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
NW ONTARIO WITH A BROAD TROUGH DOMINATING THE CONUS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. A WEAK SHRTWV WAS SLIDING THROUGH UPPER MI WHILE A MUCH
STRONGER UPSTREAM SHRTWV LOBE WAS LOCATED OVER N CNTRL MANITOBA. AT
THE SFC...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILED OVER UPPER MI AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH INTO NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NE MN. ALTHOUGH MID CLOUDS WERE
SPREADING ACROSS W UPPER MI AND 850 MB TEMPS REMAINED NEAR
-3C...RELATIVELY DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD DECK HAS LIMITED ANY LAKE
EFFECT PCPN.
TODAY...EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND SFC HEATING
FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 50 AS WAA AND BREEZY SW WINDS
DEVELOP AHEAD THE SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH/FRONT ADVANCE TOWARD
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PCPN...WITH
MOST OF THE RAIN HOLDING OFF OVER THE WEST AFTER 00Z/TUE.
TONIGHT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE INFLOW AND ONLY MODERATE 700-300
QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...POPS WERE LOWERED A BIT
INTO THE 40-60 RANGE GREATEST OVER THE NW THIS EVENING AND OVER THE
ERN CWA LATE. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH SO THAT NO
SNOW IS EXPECTED AS THE COLDER AIR ONLY MOVES IN AFTER THE FORCING
AND DEEP MOISTURE DEPART TO THE EAST. ANY PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.1 INCH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
WET/UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LINGER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE SECOND HALF
AS THE PESKY LOW OVER ONTARIO FINALLY EXITS INTO CENTRAL AND N
QUEBEC.
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOR TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W THIRD OF THE
CWA AS THE NEARLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO GETS AS
CLOSE AS IT/S GOING TO TO UPPER MI...WITH THE PRIMARY TROUGH
EXTENDING ALL THE WAY DOWN THROUGH IL AT 18Z TUESDAY. 850MB TEMPS
ARE MODEST AROUND 0 TO 4C...AND WITH SFC TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S ON W-WSW WINDS...SNOW IS BASICALLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION AT THIS POINT.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW AS COOLER AIR SLIDES IN
BEHIND THE EXITING SFC-500MB LOW. EXPECT THE LOW TO SHIFT BACK UP TO
N ONTARIO BY 00Z THURSDAY. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO THE -3 TO -8C
RANGE ON UPSLOPE W-WNW LOW LEVEL WINDS. AN INCREASE PRESSURE
GRADIENT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN WINDS
HOVERING AROUND 20KTS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. GUSTS NEAR
30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DRIER AIR WILL INVADE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS COOL
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA...AND THE MAIN
TROUGH SHIFTS E. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LOOK FOR SOME RETURN FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND STATES. THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A SFC LOW/TROUGH MOVING
FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT 18Z SUNDAY. SHOULD
SEE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AT
THE EARLIEST. A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION MAY BE IN THE CARDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 732 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR LINGERING THROUGH TODAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME/HEATING MIXING. LATER TOWARD
SUNSET...EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND DEEP LOW PRES IN NW ONTARIO. SOME -SHRA WILL IMPACT MAINLY
CMX. IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW OR
HEAVIER RAIN...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AT
CMX...WHICH WILL BE BE CLOSER TO THE STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
A SURFACE LOW ROTATING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT AND GENERALLY
SW WINDS OF 15-30KTS TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY (UP TO 30KTS)...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND
DECREASES WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
630 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. DECIDED TO UPDATE TO ADD THOSE IN.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES OTHER THAN A SMALL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD ARE PCPN CHANCES
TONIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. OUR AREA IS STILL IN
STRONG NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW...WITH A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A
TROUGH TO THE EAST.
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS DID OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TODAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
TODAY...BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS SUNDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS OF 67-70
IN WESTERN IOWA AND MAINLY LOWER 70S IN EASTERN NEBRASKA.
YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRACK DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL GENERATE MAINLY MID LEVEL LIFT. INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY WEAK
THOUGH AND NOT AS DEEP AS IT WAS SUNDAY. KEPT POPS IN THE ISOLATED
CATEGORY AND ENDED THESE BY AROUND 09Z. LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S.
THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY. TUESDAY IS
PROBABLY GOING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH LOWER AND MID
70S IN EASTERN NEBRASKA...UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IN WESTERN IOWA.
850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR WEDNESDAY...BUT MIXING DOES NOT
LOOK AS GOOD. SO WE EXPECT HIGHS A A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
THOUGHT ABOUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT STARTING
OUT THIS PERIOD...THEN SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES
BY THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST PCPN THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED
TO BE DOWN ACROSS MISSOURI AND KANSAS...THE SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA COULD SEE RAIN TOTALS UP TO HALF AN INCH FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS SEEMED TOO WET
THOUGH AND WENT CLOSER TO VALUES SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF.
DID NOT MENTION ANY PCPN FOR FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES
RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
VFR COND EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
845 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 832 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
A FEW LIGHT ECHOS STARTING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA INTO EASTERN MONTANA WHILE BAND OF CIRRUS WITH STRONG JET
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA. LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH
THEY MAY PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS
HAS BEEN ADDRESSED BY ADDING LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER UP WITH
CURRENT TREND. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
11Z RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN H300 N-S JET AROUND 135 KTS LYING ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ONGOING 12Z RAOB ALREADY CLOSE TO 150 NM
SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK. BAND OF JET STREAM CIRRUS ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IS PARALLELING THIS JET AND MOVING SOUTHEAST. SURFACE
WINDS AT KBIS WITHIN THE PAST HOUR GUSTING TO 20 KTS BRIEFLY. SO
EXPECT ANOTHER BREEZY DAY. ADJUSTED CLOUDS. OTHERWISE CURRENT FCST
LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING.
CURRENTLY...VERY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A 140KT JET
STREAM MOVING TOWARDS/OVER THE REGION...AND AS WE REMAIN IN
BETWEEN A DEEP UPPER LOW SOUTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY AND A BROAD RIDGE
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. SUBTLE EMBEDDED WAVES CONTINUE TO EITHER
RIDE OVER THE RIDGE OR SPIRAL AROUND THE LOW THEN PROCEED
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...RIGHT
NOW MAINLY RESULTING IN SCT-BKN AREAS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
A MORE DEFINED MID LEVEL IMPULSE...NOW CROSSING THE ALBERTA
ROCKIES...WILL APPROACH AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN EMBEDDED UPPER
JET STREAK ACROSS THE WEST...WILL HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...EVENTUALLY
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING ACROSS WESTERN INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LINGERING PRECIPITATION
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT EAST WITH THE UPPER JET
STREAK...BUT ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS MID LEVEL
FORCING WANES. SHOWERS WILL BE FAST MOVING SO NOT ANTICIPATING
MUCH IN REGARDS TO ACCUMULATION.
SOME ELEVATED CAPE IS INDICATED BY MODELS. WHILE WOULD NOT RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...CAPE IS RATHER LIMITED SO WILL NOT
MENTION THUNDER WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. FIGURED WE CAN ALWAYS
ADD IF NEEDED IF LIGHTNING STRIKES BEGIN TO POP UP UPSTREAM OFF TO
OUR WEST AND NORTH.
FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...BOUNDARY LAYER AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED HIGH PERCENTAGE
OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST...WENT A TAD
COOLER/SIMILAR HIGHS OVER MY SOUTHWEST THIRD.
MODELS PERFORMED FAIRLY WELL YESTERDAY WITH THE WINDS. WE
EVENTUALLY REACHED ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND GUSTS MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE BUFKIT INDICATED OVER MUCH OF THE ORIGINAL
ADVISORY AREA. FOR TODAY...BOTH THE 00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT KEEP THE
40KT + WIND GUSTS ABOVE THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER. SO WHILE IT
WILL BE BREEZY...PEAK WINDS WILL BE LOWER THAN WHAT OCCURRED
SUNDAY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...MORE SO GUSTING WITHIN THE 30S MPH
INSTEAD OF IN THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA BEGINNING TO FILL AND DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST. WHAT FOLLOWS
IS A TRANSITION TO A RATHER FAST H500 FLOW REGIME THAT RESULTS IN
A RATHER DRY WEATHER PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED. SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVES DO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN...ON WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN SATURDAY. OTHERWISE THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN COOL ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATING TO THE
60S SATURDAY. LOW MAINLY IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO CIGS LOWERING NEAR MVFR. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN PICK UP BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...PEAK GUSTS NEAR 30-35KTS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
645 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
11Z RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN H300 N-S JET AROUND 135 KTS LYING ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ONGOING 12Z RAOB ALREADY CLOSE TO 150 NM
SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK. BAND OF JET STREAM CIRRUS ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IS PARALLELING THIS JET AND MOVING SOUTHEAST. SURFACE
WINDS AT KBIS WITHIN THE PAST HOUR GUSTING TO 20 KTS BRIEFLY. SO
EXPECT ANOTHER BREEZY DAY. ADJUSTED CLOUDS. OTHERWISE CURRENT FCST
LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING.
CURRENTLY...VERY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A 140KT JET
STREAM MOVING TOWARDS/OVER THE REGION...AND AS WE REMAIN IN
BETWEEN A DEEP UPPER LOW SOUTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY AND A BROAD RIDGE
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. SUBTLE EMBEDDED WAVES CONTINUE TO EITHER
RIDE OVER THE RIDGE OR SPIRAL AROUND THE LOW THEN PROCEED
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...RIGHT
NOW MAINLY RESULTING IN SCT-BKN AREAS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
A MORE DEFINED MID LEVEL IMPULSE...NOW CROSSING THE ALBERTA
ROCKIES...WILL APPROACH AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN EMBEDDED UPPER
JET STREAK ACROSS THE WEST...WILL HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...EVENTUALLY
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING ACROSS WESTERN INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LINGERING PRECIPITATION
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT EAST WITH THE UPPER JET
STREAK...BUT ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS MID LEVEL
FORCING WANES. SHOWERS WILL BE FAST MOVING SO NOT ANTICIPATING
MUCH IN REGARDS TO ACCUMULATION.
SOME ELEVATED CAPE IS INDICATED BY MODELS. WHILE WOULD NOT RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...CAPE IS RATHER LIMITED SO WILL NOT
MENTION THUNDER WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. FIGURED WE CAN ALWAYS
ADD IF NEEDED IF LIGHTNING STRIKES BEGIN TO POP UP UPSTREAM OFF TO
OUR WEST AND NORTH.
FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...BOUNDARY LAYER AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED HIGH PERCENTAGE
OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST...WENT A TAD
COOLER/SIMILAR HIGHS OVER MY SOUTHWEST THIRD.
MODELS PERFORMED FAIRLY WELL YESTERDAY WITH THE WINDS. WE
EVENTUALLY REACHED ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND GUSTS MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE BUFKIT INDICATED OVER MUCH OF THE ORIGINAL
ADVISORY AREA. FOR TODAY...BOTH THE 00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT KEEP THE
40KT + WIND GUSTS ABOVE THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER. SO WHILE IT
WILL BE BREEZY...PEAK WINDS WILL BE LOWER THAN WHAT OCCURRED
SUNDAY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...MORE SO GUSTING WITHIN THE 30S MPH
INSTEAD OF IN THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA BEGINNING TO FILL AND DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST. WHAT FOLLOWS
IS A TRANSITION TO A RATHER FAST H500 FLOW REGIME THAT RESULTS IN
A RATHER DRY WEATHER PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED. SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVES DO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN...ON WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN SATURDAY. OTHERWISE THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN COOL ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATING TO THE
60S SATURDAY. LOW MAINLY IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO CIGS LOWERING NEAR MVFR. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN PICK UP BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...PEAK GUSTS NEAR 30-35KTS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
903 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE INCREASES WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST FLOW THROUGH
TUESDAY. COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY PRESSURE FOR
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MUCH MORE ACTIVE AUTUMN PATTERN...AS SPOKES OF ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED SPEED MAXIMUMS ROTATE AROUND THE BROAD 500 MB TROF
OVER WESTERN ONTARIO.
IN THE MID MORNING UPDATE...WAS A BIT FASTER INTRODUCING POPS FROM
SW TO NE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THE INITIAL
SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY NEAR 13Z. YET...HARD TO
FIGURE WHEN THERE WILL BE LULLS BETWEEN CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THIS AFTERNOON.
VAD WINDS AT 925 MB AT RLX HAVE JUST INCREASED TO 30 KNOTS.
INCREASED SYNOPTIC SURFACE WINDS TODAY.
THE MAIN DYNAMICS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING MOVING
WEST TO EAST. CONVECTION DRIVEN BY DYNAMICS RATHER THAN SURFACE
DEVELOPED INSTABILITY. 11Z RAP HAS ONLY ABOUT 500 TO 700 J/KG CAPE
DEVELOPING. FIGURING CELL MOVEMENT WILL BE 40 TO 45 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. WITH FAST MOVEMENT NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT
ANY FLOOD POTENTIAL.
WAS A BIT FASTER REDUCING POPS THIS EVENING IN THE OHIO VALLEY AS
DYNAMICS MOVES EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS
PERIOD...TRANSITIONING FROM A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW AFTER MID WEEK. THIS BECOMES A VERY
UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH NO GREAT TEMPERATURE CHANGES AS FRONTAL
SYSTEMS MEANDER BACK AND FORTH. WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO OPEN WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THERE WILL
BE GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS.
ONE SUCH FRONTAL SYSTEM COMES ACROSS TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. SOME INSTABILITY IS
INDICATED BY GUIDANCE SO WILL PUT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. MODELS ARE QUICKER
EXITING THIS FRONT...SO HAVE TAPERED OFF POPS QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT DOWN THIS WAY...AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES FLATTER. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY WITH DRY
AND MILD CONDITIONS.
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM COMES IN THURSDAY...AND THIS IS ALSO HANDLED
FAIRLY WELL BY THE MODELS. BY THIS TIME...WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE
ZONAL...THE FRONT WILL BECOME ORIENTED MORE EAST TO WEST AS IT MOVES
INTO OUR AREA...AND GIVE US A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
MODELS INDICATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF COMING IN WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT AT THIS TIME FRAME...WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY
WATER ISSUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
USED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THIS WOULD KEEP
A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE REGION AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
IN THE AREA. THIS FRONT WOULD RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. A WAVE WOULD THEN MOVE ALONG THE FRONT
PUSHING IT BACK SOUTHWARD A BIT ON FRIDAY...ONLY TO RETURN
NORTHWARD AGAIN WITH ANOTHER WAVE ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPC HAS EXTENDED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
HTS TERMINAL FOR TODAY.
EXPECTING THE FIRST LINE OF CONVECTION TO ENTER THE WESTERN
TERMINALS AFTER 17Z...WITH INDICATIONS THAT THIS COULD BE A LINE
OF STORMS CARRYING 30KT GUSTS AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. USED TEMPO
GROUPS FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT DOWNPLAY THE THUNDER AND GUST
THREAT FOR THE MOUNTAIN TERMINALS AT BKW AND EKN. SOME WIND TODAY
WILL KEEP THE VISIBILITIES UP EVEN DURING RAIN AT MOST PLACES
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.
BEYOND THAT...WITH THE RAIN EXITING AND WIND COMING DOWN...FEEL
IFR OR WORSE FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT DESPITE SOME CLOUD COVER
HANGING IN PLACE GIVEN THE RECEIVED RAINFALL. CONFIDENCE TAKES A
HIT IN THIS SCENARIO HOWEVER BUT FEEL IT IS WORTH A MENTION AT
SOME LOCATIONS. LAMP GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT THIS...ALTHOUGH THE
MET/MAV DOES.
EXPECTING DAYTIME GUSTS IN THE 15-20KT RANGE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY EVEN WITHOUT THUNDERSTORM INFLUENCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTION TIMING COULD VARY. FOG LATE MAY
NOT DEVELOP.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 10/06/14
UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS OR STORMS MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1128 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE BASE OF THIS LOW WILL IMPACT PENNSYLVANIA TODAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO PENNSYLVANIA FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN A CLIPPER LOW COULD TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A RELATIVELY BRIEF...SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE/CLEARING
/BENEATH THE LEFT REAR QUAD OF A 90 KT 300MB JETLET/ WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING WEAK
SHORTWAVE.
WATER VAPOR LOOP LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE
TURNING EAST ACRS THE MID MISS VALLEY. STRONG SOUTHERLY LL JET
AND ASSOC WAA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN PA
LATE TODAY...SPREADING LAYERED CLOUDS AND THE CHC OF SHOWERS INTO
THE ALLEGHENY MTNS BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST HRRR AND SIMILAR SET OF
PREVIOUS GRIDDED FCST TO RE-INTRODUCE SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN MTS
21-22Z TODAY...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES BEGINNING
AROUND 23Z.
THE SUNSHINE...COMBINED WITH RISING TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN
A MUCH MILDER DAY THAN SUNDAY. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH A
HIGH IN THE L60S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...AND U60S TO LOWER 70S
THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY.
INCREASING MIXING WITHIN DEEPENING BLYR SHOULD DRAW SOME FAIRLY
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC THIS AFTN. BUKFIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS
IN THE 20-25KT RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AFOREMENTIONED...POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NE ACROSS WESTERN PA
TONIGHT. STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ALONG AXIS OF
ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY LL JET SHOULD PRODUCE A NEAR CERTAINTY OF
SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
GEFS 850 MFLUX VALUES PEAK BTWN 00Z-06Z WITH PASSAGE OF STRONG LL
JET. SOME MEAGER CAPES IN THE MDL DATA ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU THIS EVENING...SO HAVE INCLUDED SCHC OF THUNDER THERE.
HAVE COVERED THE SE COUNTIES WITH LOWER /CHC/ POPS LATE
TONIGHT...AS BEST FORCING IMPLIED BY MDL 500-300MB Q-VEC
CONVERGENCE LIFTS NORTH BEFORE REACHING EASTERN PA. CLOUD COVER
AND SURGE OF HIGHER DWPTS ON SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD
TONIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSE TO 50F.
ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IN THE SUCCESSION OF SHORTWAVES SHOULD OCCUR
TUESDAY...AS TONIGHT/S SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH OF PA AND NEXT POTENT
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD PA BY LATE IN THE
DAY. PTSUNNY SKIES EARLY IN THE DAY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A CHC OF SHOWERS TOWARD EVENING...AS STRONG WAA
OVERSPREADS THE REGION AT NOSE OF ANOMALOUS LL JET. MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY SHOULD BE AOA CLIMO AVERAGES BASED ON ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS.
HARD TO SEE HOW ANY OF CENTRAL PA ESCAPES RAINFALL TUE
NIGHT...WHEN ALL MDL DATA TRACK NOSE OF ANOMALOUS LL JET ACROSS
THE AREA. GEFS AND SREF PLUMES SUPPORT CATEGORCIAL POPS
EVERYWHERE. SMALL CAPES COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE COULD AGAIN LEAD TO THE CHC OF THUNDER TUES NIGHT. FAST
MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND PWATS ONLY SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL SHOULD
LEAD TO UNIMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS...LIKELY IN THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH RANGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WX STILL SEEMS PROBABLE FROM WED INTO EARLY
THURS AS THE DEEP LOW/TROUGH WEAKENS AND PIVOTS NEWD INTO NRN
QUEBEC. THE 00Z MED RANGE GUIDANCE IS IMPLYING THE LIKELY PASSAGE
OF A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER WITH CHC OF SHRA LATE THU/THU NIGHT. A
TRAILING WEST-EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BNDRY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM COULD
STALL OUT JUST S OF PA...POTENTIALLY PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. THERE ARE SOME N-S
PLACEMENT DIFFS IN THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS WHICH WILL NEED
TO BE RESOLVED...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST THE SRN 1/2 OF THE
AREA COULD SEE A LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF CLEARING /VFR/ OVER ERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENN WILL
WORK EASTWARD INTO PA DURING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MORE SHOWERS TONIGHT /AND AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS/...AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS WILL BEGINN BETWEEN 21-22Z THEN
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY BY 23-01Z.
EXPECT SOME CLEARING AGAIN TUE AFT...BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE TUE/EARLY WED.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM WEST...BRINGING SCT SHRA.
ISO TSRA POSS TUE AFTERNOON. CIG/VSBY IMPACTS LIKELY IN WEST AND
CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY.
WED-THU...MVFR CIGS/SCT SHRA PSBL NW WED IMPROVING CONDITION WED
INTO THURS MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.
FRI...CIG REDUCTIONS IN RAIN POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
859 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
MOSTLY SUB SEVERE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS AS SHORT WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE AREA. PEA TO MARBLE
SIZED HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER STORMS. ENHANCED VILS
HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY BELOW 5 G/M3.
A MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX ON THE ORDER OF 130 KNOTS IS
POISED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING ALREADY NOSING DOWN INTO
MISSOURI. A PIECE OF THIS ENERGY EJECTS DOWN ACROSS KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SO WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
TOTAL TOTALS CLIMB TO 56 ON THE RUC13 BY 22Z WITH A SWEAT OF 432
WITH GOOD MID LEVEL DRYING. LOOKING AT THE HODOGRAPH PROFILE AN
ISOLATED TWISTER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
BOYD
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
548 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 548 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
The storms over Southwest Indiana are becoming more elevated with
limited hail potential. Gust front continues to arc out ahead of
convection suggesting that the balance in the upshear flow is
diminishing the wind threat over Southwest Indiana now. Lapse
rates may still be enough to produce 1/2 to 3/4 inch hail, but
with the loss of insolation (sunshine), any significant lift would
have to be carried by the jet max.
Most storms, including the storm over Mclean County KY, continue
to remain below severe limits. Appears that Significant Weather
Advisories (SPS) handle the situation at this time, given the
sharp low level lapse rates.
Although LAPS surface based helicity remains high (>175 m2/s2),
LAPS Surface CAPE continues to diminish sharply over Southeast MO,
Southern IL, and Southwest Indiana. The best surace based CAPE
continues south and east of the Ohio River as of 5 pm with values
between 600-1200 noted in a NW-SE gradient toward the TN state line.
The 3km HRRR runs from 19z-21z show the current convection
departing the CWA by 03z, with weaker, but more widespread
precipitation after 06z. Most severe threat should diminish after
00z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 115 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
The biggest short term challenge will be thunderstorm forecasting
this afternoon and evening. Large scale ascent ahead of short wave
energy seen on wv imagery diving across MO will help drive cold
front into/across FA. Surge of surface Td`s still in the mid-upr
50s across ptns wky will be prime area of potential development,
and SPC has that outlooked for slgt risk. Am seeing beginnings of
developing convection across ptns of Central IL attm, will monitor
closely. Some concern that dry air represented by 40s Td`s just on
our doorstep will overtake column and cut off ability of storms to
develop and esp grow as column dries with time/fropa. Close
weather watch will commence thru press time for final call on near
term pops/coverage.
After that, another trof energy induced pop comes in late tonight-
early tmrw. Following that, we have a dry pause from late Tuesday
thru Wednesday. The next biggest overall pcpn chance begins Wed
night as a smaller chance incoming, posing to continue and increase
into the long term portion of the forecast.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2014
High confidence in a wet unsettled extended forecast. Medium to low
confidence on exact timing of synoptic scale features...especially
this weekend.
Started off with a goal to reduce pops where the least chances will
be but failed to accomplish this due to the fronts meandering over
the area. We start off Thursday with a warm front lifting into the
area then stalling as high pressure north pushes cold air south to
collide with the warm front. This pushes the front a little south of
the area Friday night then lifts through the area Saturday into
Sunday. Then finally Sunday night a strong cold front approaches the
area bringing storms back to the area Sunday night into Monday.
An unusual wet pattern will definitely plague the area with the
possibility of strong storms especially going into next week.
Temperatures will likely fall slight below normal but as warm fronts
lift north of the area we will return to slightly above normal
briefly.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 115 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
VFR conditions may yield to developing convection in the pm heat
today, otherwise should be weather free until late tonight-early
tmrw, when showers/storms move in. Cigs and/or vsbys may restrict to
MVFR at times then.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
245 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
ITS A DIFFICULT DAY TO ANTICIPATE SPECIFIC CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION VERY
FAR IN ADVANCE FOR A FORECAST. HAVE AGAIN UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. WILL EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF PRECIP LATER TODAY IS LOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1014 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
UPDATED TO BLEND LATEST OBS INTO THE FORECAST. THIS INCLUDES
RADAR...WITH FAST MOVING CONVECTION AFFECTING THE REGION THIS
MORNING. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 830 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
HAVE FRESHENED UP THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS FIRST WAVE OF
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 10 AM AND 1 PM. ONCE
THIS MOVES THROUGH...MORE OF A LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA. THIS WILL THEN
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST THE LONGEST. THERE LIKELY NOT BE
MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION...HOWEVER
AT LEAST SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BUILD IN A SMALL WINDOW
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE LINE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. EMBEDDED
CELLS WITHIN THIS LINE WILL POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PIVOTING
ACROSS THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS THE CAROLINA COAST. ALOFT...A MASSIVE TROUGH REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AS THE CORE OF THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS FOUND ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN SEVERAL BOUTS OF THUNDER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
OVERNIGHT...AS A LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP ACROSS THE AREA...ALLOWING A
MORE SUBTLE SURFACE WARM FRONT TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF
THE COOLER VALLEY AIR HAS MIXED OUT...WITH ONLY A FEW SPOTS HANGING
ONTO THE 40S. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING IN THE 50S...WITH
EVEN A FEW 60S ALSO NOTED.
AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...AS STOUT
INTERMITTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WHILE THERE IS
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
WAVES AS WELL AS THE INFLUENCE FROM CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
SOME UNCERTAINTY. AS SUCH...HAVE RELIED ON A GENERAL BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE.
EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS
THE AREA...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. POPS THEN REALLY
RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE FIRST SHORT WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED AS LEAN...HOWEVER
THE DYNAMICS AND SUBSEQUENT WIND PROFILE REMAIN BEEFY. THE STORM MODE
LOOKS MORE SUPERCELLULAR...AND WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME ISOLATED
CELLS ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY EXHIBITING SUPERCELLULAR
CHARACTERISTICS. WET BULB AND FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE NEAR OR
BELOW 9K FEET...WHICH WILL MAKE UP FOR THE LACK OF MORE INTENSE
UPDRAFTS HAMPERED BY THE LIMITED INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WINDS WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH 40 TO 50 KTS OF WIND AT 4 TO 5K FEET OFF OF
THE GROUND.
CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO MORE OF SEVERAL LINES OR
ELONGATED CLUSTERS TOWARDS DUSK AS THE CORE OF THE FORCING MOVES IN
OVERHEAD. PWATS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...HOWEVER ANY TRAINING
CELLS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PUT DOWN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
PLACES. ONCE THE FIRST WAVE MOVES OUT LATER THIS EVENING...A BRIEF
REPRIEVE WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
MOVES IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS...WITH
AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN
WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AND GOOD DYNAMICS DESPITE WEAK
INSTABILITY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT...AT LEAST TO START THE
EXTENDED...BEFORE DIVERGING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEY ALL SHOW A
VERY DEEP AND LARGE MID LEVEL LOW SPINNING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.
A NODE OF THIS WILL BE SWEEPING NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT. AS
HEIGHTS SLOWLY START TO COME UP OVER KENTUCKY A SMALLER TROUGH WILL
BE MAKING ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY.
THIS WESTERN TROUGH WILL OPEN UP AND SEND IT ENERGY EAST INTO THE
FAST FLOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL...
THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LOW THAN THE GEM AND GFS.
THIS STRENGTH ALSO MANIFESTS ITSELF DOWNSTREAM OVER KENTUCKY AS A
BIT MORE RIDGING THROUGH THE WEEKEND THAN THE OTHERS. FOR
SUNDAY...THE GFS SEEMS MOST OUT OF STEP WITH ITS PATTERN COMPARED TO
THE OTHER MODELS AS IT HAS FLAT AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER KENTUCKY.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF...SUPPORTED BY THE GEM...STARTS TO BRING A FAST
MOVING AND QUICKLY DEEPENING TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL FURTHER CONSOLIDATE INTO MONDAY AS A DEEP LOW OVER THE MIDWEST
WITH A SWEEP OF ENERGY PRESSING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL FAVOR THE
MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND THEN LEAN MORE TOWARD
THE ECMWF FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL OCCUR AS AMPLE
MOISTURE...FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MEETS UP WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY
AND A COUPLE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL LIFT
INTO KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY
OVER THE AREA AS COLD AIR TO THE NORTH AND WARM TO THE SOUTH MAKES
FOR A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE STATE. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH AGAIN AS A BONA FIDE WARM FRONT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP SFC LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHER
PLAINS. THIS LATTER SYSTEM WILL THEN LOOK TO SWING ITS ELONGATED
COLD FRONT INTO THIS PART OF THE STATE LATER MONDAY. WITH THE
FORECAST AREA CAUGHT BETWEEN SEASONS THIS EXTENDED...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...BUT WITH A SMALLER THAN AVERAGE DIURNAL RANGE
DUE TO EXTRA CLOUDS AND PCPN AROUND.
THE CR GRID LOAD PROVED TO BE AN ADEQUATE START TO THE EXTENDED
GRIDS...THOUGH DID ADJUST THE POPS A TAD TOWARD THE DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTION FROM THE ECMWF THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. GIVEN
THE FRONTS NEARBY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIODS DID NOT DO TOO MUCH
ADJUSTING TO THE TEMPERATURES AS THE TERRAIN IMPACT WILL BE
RELATIVELY MUTED...EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN A MODERATE RIDGE
TO VALLEY SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 830 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
A COUPLE OF LINES OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THE FIRST LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 14 AND 17Z
FROM WEST TO EAST. A LOT OF THIS CONVECTION IS ELEVATED IN
NATURE...SO ONLY A TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS IS
EXPECTED...WITH MAINLY A VFR STATUS REIGNING. THE SECOND LINE OF
CONVECTION WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 20 AND 01Z. STRONGER
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS LINE...WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR EXPECTED. LOWER CEILINGS WILL THEN SCATTER OUT IN THE
EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...LINGERING THE LONGEST IN FAR
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS...WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS WILL BE COMMON TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1245 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.AVIATION...
STG BOW ECHO LINE OF TSTMS MOVED SOUTH ACROSS AREA THIS AM. STABLE
AIR IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH THICK MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS...
WILL INHIBIT ANY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU AT LEAST 07/06Z ACROSS AREA...EXCEPT FOR
A FEW TRANSIENT LOW CLOUDS. HOWEVER...CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AND
WET GROUND ACROSS NE TX...AND LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING OVER NORTH LA...
WILL COMBINE FOR POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS ACROSS MUCH OF AREA AFTER
07/06Z. POSSIBLE MCS REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT FURTHER TO THE EAST
THAN LAST NIGHT...THUS KELD AND POSSIBLY KMLU COULD SEE LATE NIGHT
TSTMS IN DEEP NW FLOW ALOFT. S-SW WINDS INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KTS
AFTER 07/14Z SHOULD LIFT ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS FOR REMAINDER OF TUESDAY./VII/.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST AROUND NOON...LOWERING THE AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND ALSO LOWERING
THE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN. THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST
FLOW AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT WILL ADDRESS THIS AGAIN WITH THE 4 PM
FORECAST. /14/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 823 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST. DID MENTION HEAVY
RAIN...BUT ANY MORE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ISOLATED...AS CURRENT
TRENDS INDICATE SOME WEAKENING. TEMPS ADJUSTED...AS THEY WILL BE
SLOWER TO WARM WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...BUT SHOULD RECOVER FAST
IN THE AFTERNOON. /14/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WILL BE BRIEF THIS MORNING AS STRONG CONVECTION ENTERING OUR CWA
AND THE LATENESS OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z ECMWF WILL NOT ALLOW FOR A
LENGTHY DISCUSSION.
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND A 45KT LOW LEVEL JET IS HELPING TO FEED THIS STRONG
TO SOMETIMES SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY
OF S OK/SW AR INTO N TX ATTM. THREW OUT THE 00Z NAM OUTPUT AS IT
HAS A POOR HANDLING OF CURRENT CONVECTION. TODAY`S POP WAS BASED ON
THE HRRR/GFS/ECMWF/CMC OUTPUT WHICH WARRANTS HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR REGION TODAY. SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF
OUR REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE CONVECTION TODAY AND WHILE
THIS IS WARRANTED...DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
CONVECTION WITH THIS COMPLEX. HOWEVER...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
SVR WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
IF THE HRRR MODEL PANS OUT...THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD SWING
THROUGH OUR ENTIRE CWA TODAY BUT REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW LEFT
BEHIND FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION AND THE DEGREE OF AFTERNOON
HEATING WE ARE ABLE TO SEE. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
A RESULT. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR NORTHERN MOST ZONES OVERNIGHT
AS PROGS SUGGEST THAT WE COULD SEE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OVERNIGHT
BUT AGAIN...THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH A
WEAK BOUNDARY CAN REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT.
LOW POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO AFTERNOON HEATING.
FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE PROGS REMAIN IN POOR
AGREEMENT CONCERNING TIMING OF OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES. THE 00Z GFS
REMAINS THE FAST OUTLIER SO HAVE TRENDED TEMPS/POPS TO THE 00Z
ECMWF/CMC RUNS WHICH POINT TO A SLOWER TROUGH EJECTION FROM THE
WEST AND SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT INTO OUR REGION. THIS RESULT IN A
WET WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 84 69 91 70 91 / 20 20 20 10 10
MLU 83 66 90 67 91 / 20 30 20 10 20
DEQ 82 63 89 65 88 / 30 40 20 10 10
TXK 84 67 90 69 88 / 30 40 20 10 10
ELD 83 64 88 66 88 / 20 40 20 10 10
TYR 84 70 91 71 91 / 20 20 10 10 10
GGG 84 70 91 69 91 / 20 20 10 10 10
LFK 83 69 92 70 91 / 20 20 10 10 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1140 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST AROUND NOON...LOWERING THE AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND ALSO LOWERING
THE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN. THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST
FLOW AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT WILL ADDRESS THIS AGAIN WITH THE 4 PM
FORECAST. /14/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 823 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST. DID MENTION HEAVY
RAIN...BUT ANY MORE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ISOLATED...AS CURRENT
TRENDS INDICATE SOME WEAKENING. TEMPS ADJUSTED...AS THEY WILL BE
SLOWER TO WARM WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...BUT SHOULD RECOVER FAST
IN THE AFTERNOON. /14/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 06/12Z TAFS...INTENSE LINE OF TSTMS AFFECTING TYR/GGG/SHV
TO BEGIN THIS TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR CIGS...REDUCED VSBYS AND WIND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35-40KTS WITH THIS LINE OF CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE
VCNTY SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED THIS MORNING BUT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AT TXK/ELD AS CONVECTION MOVES SOUTH. LFK/MLU TERMINALS MAY STILL
BE UNDER THE GUN AS LINE OF TSTMS MOVES SOUTH AND EAST. CONVECTION
SHOULD GRADUALLY WRAP UP BY LATE MORNING ALONG THE I-20 TERMINALS
AND EARLY AFTERNOON FARTHER SOUTH AT LFK. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY
FROM THE SOUTH OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WITH SPEEDS FROM 5-10 KTS BUT
WIDELY VARYING WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN AREAS OF CONVECTION. FOG AND
LOW STRATUS WILL BE A CONCERN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
WINDS DROP OFF OVERNIGHT AND GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
/19/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WILL BE BRIEF THIS MORNING AS STRONG CONVECTION ENTERING OUR CWA
AND THE LATENESS OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z ECMWF WILL NOT ALLOW FOR A
LENGTHY DISCUSSION.
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND A 45KT LOW LEVEL JET IS HELPING TO FEED THIS STRONG
TO SOMETIMES SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY
OF S OK/SW AR INTO N TX ATTM. THREW OUT THE 00Z NAM OUTPUT AS IT
HAS A POOR HANDLING OF CURRENT CONVECTION. TODAY`S POP WAS BASED ON
THE HRRR/GFS/ECMWF/CMC OUTPUT WHICH WARRANTS HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR REGION TODAY. SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF
OUR REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE CONVECTION TODAY AND WHILE
THIS IS WARRANTED...DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
CONVECTION WITH THIS COMPLEX. HOWEVER...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
SVR WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
IF THE HRRR MODEL PANS OUT...THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD SWING
THROUGH OUR ENTIRE CWA TODAY BUT REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW LEFT
BEHIND FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION AND THE DEGREE OF AFTERNOON
HEATING WE ARE ABLE TO SEE. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
A RESULT. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR NORTHERN MOST ZONES OVERNIGHT
AS PROGS SUGGEST THAT WE COULD SEE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OVERNIGHT
BUT AGAIN...THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH A
WEAK BOUNDARY CAN REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT.
LOW POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO AFTERNOON HEATING.
FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE PROGS REMAIN IN POOR
AGREEMENT CONCERNING TIMING OF OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES. THE 00Z GFS
REMAINS THE FAST OUTLIER SO HAVE TRENDED TEMPS/POPS TO THE 00Z
ECMWF/CMC RUNS WHICH POINT TO A SLOWER TROUGH EJECTION FROM THE
WEST AND SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT INTO OUR REGION. THIS RESULT IN A
WET WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 84 69 91 70 91 / 20 20 20 10 10
MLU 83 66 90 67 91 / 20 30 20 10 20
DEQ 82 63 89 65 88 / 30 40 20 10 10
TXK 84 67 90 69 88 / 30 40 20 10 10
ELD 83 64 88 66 88 / 20 40 20 10 10
TYR 84 70 91 71 91 / 20 20 10 10 10
GGG 84 70 91 69 91 / 20 20 10 10 10
LFK 83 69 92 70 91 / 20 20 10 10 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
207 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY...THEN MOVE
EAST TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSS
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST
THROUGH QUEBEC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
145 PM UPDATE...THE SKY CONDITIONS NEEDED ADJUSTMENT TO INCREASE
THE PERCENTAGES AS THE NAM12 AND RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWED MOISTURE AT
850MBS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE CAR 12Z RAOB AND SATELLITE
VISIBLE IMAGERY STRATOCUMULUS POPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF MAINE. MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WERE RAISED A CATEGORY SHOWING LOWER 60S FOR NORTHERN AREAS AND
60-65 CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS INCLUDING THE COAST. THE LAMP
GUIDANCE WAS HANDLING THINGS WELL PER THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
OBS W/A SSW WIND PICKING UP AIDING IN SOME WARMER AIR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE A
LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL EXIST AROUND 850 MB TODAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHWEST MAINE. AS SUCH, EXPECT FEW
TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS TO POP UP AS MIXING OCCURS FROM
DAYTIME HEATING.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE AND
ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTH
FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER TONIGHT THAN THOSE
SEEN LAST NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S PRETTY MUCH
EVERYWHERE, WITH UPPER 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUE WILL BEGIN WITH INCREASING CLDNSS AS A LEAD S/WV ALF
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW TO MID LVL WARM ADVCN APCHS THE FA FROM THE
GREAT LKS. SHWRS AND STEADY RN ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM INTO WRN
PTNS OF THE FA BY ERLY AFTN AND THEN SPREADS OVR THE REST OF THE
REGION BY EVE. INTERMITTENT SHWRS AND DZ AND PATCHY COASTAL FOG
WILL CONT LATE TUE NGT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING FIRST S/WV...AND A
MUCH STRONGER SECOND S/WV AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW FROM THE GREAT
LKS. THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW BY
WED MORN...BRINGING A PD OF MDT TO HVY RNFL WHICH SHOULD LAST
INTO ERLY AFTN THEN END W TO E ACROSS THE FA LATER IN THE AFT AS
AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS N AND A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THE
TMG OF THE RNFL AND AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YSTDY`S RN
EVENT...WITH AMOUNTS MSLY IN THE 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH RANGE PRIOR
TO ENDING...LCLY HIGHER RNFL ALG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CNTRL ME
HIGHLANDS AND THE MTNS IN THE BAXTER ST PARK REGION WHERE THERE
WILL BE AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT WITH A SSE WIND FIELD. POPS WERE
BROUGHT UP THIS UPDATE TO 90 PERCENT DURING THE CORE OF THE EVENT
WED MORN.
SPEAKING OF WINDS...THEY COULD BE AN ISSUE ON WED...SPCLY ALG AND
JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHERE STRONGER WINDS ALF COULD
POTENTIALLY MIX DOWN. FCST WINDS WERE INCREASED FOR WED...BUT WILL
HOLD OFF BRINGING WINDS UP TO WHAT GUIDANCE IS REALLY SUGGESTING
FOR LATER WED...IN THE EVENT MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS LIKE THE OPNL
GFS...IS TO STRONG WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW AS IT TRACKS
NE ALG THE ST LAWRENCE RVR VLY OF ERN QB PROV.
AFT WARMER THAN AVG TEMPS TUE NGT AND WED ACROSS THE REGION...WED
NGT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH PTLY TO
MSLY CLDY SKIES N AND CLRG SKIES S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THU THRU SAT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER AS A SERIES OF WEAK S/WVS
CROSS THE REGION...BRINGING INTERVALS OF CLDNSS AND ATTMS...ISOLD
SHWRS TO THE REGION. A WEAK SFC LOW TRACKING OFF THE MID ATLC
STATES ON FRI COULD GRAZE COASTAL DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA WITH A
BETTER CHC OF SHWRS FRI INTO FRI EVE...BUT FOR NOW...MOST LONGER
RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS MOST OF THE RNFL WITH THIS SYSTEM S OF THE
FA. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL THRU THIS PD...WITH LITTLE OR
NO OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NGT DUE TO CONTD GRAD
WINDS.
EVENTUALLY...STRONG SFC HI PRES FROM THE MIDWEST WILL APCH THE
REGION BY SUN...BRINGING MORE IN THE WAY OF FAIR WX...A BETTER
CHC OF RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR SUN NGT AS IT CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS TUE WILL LOWER TO IFR OVRNGT
TUE S TO N ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AS LOW ST CLGS MOVE NWRD FROM THE
GULF OF ME AND SHWRS/RN MOVE EWRD FROM QB PROV...THEN CONT INTO WED
IN RN...RECOVERING TO MVFR SW TO NE AS RN TAPERS TO SHWRS.
MOST SITES RECOVER TO VFR BY WED NGT WITH MVFR PERHAPS HANGING ON
OVR FAR NRN SITES INTO THU MORN...SUCH AS KFVE. ALL SITES SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THU INTO FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: WINDS AND WVS SLOWLY INCREASE TUE INTO TUE NGT
AS A SRLY WIND FETCH INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS
XPCTD TO CROSS THE WATERS LATER WED. WINDS AND WVS COULD REACH SCA
CRITERIA AS EARLY AS LATE TUE NGT AND THEN CONT AS LONG AS THU MORN
OR SO...SPCLY OVR THE OUTER WATERS. IN ADDITION TO RN...MARINE FOG
MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO A MILE OR LESS LATE TUE NGT INTO WED MORN AS
DWPTS GREATER THAN GULF OF ME SST`S ARE ADVCTD NWRD OVR THE WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH BLO SCA CRITERIA BY
LATER THU AND REMAIN BLO SCA FRI.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
124 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
NW ONTARIO WITH A BROAD TROUGH DOMINATING THE CONUS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. A WEAK SHRTWV WAS SLIDING THROUGH UPPER MI WHILE A MUCH
STRONGER UPSTREAM SHRTWV LOBE WAS LOCATED OVER N CNTRL MANITOBA. AT
THE SFC...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILED OVER UPPER MI AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH INTO NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NE MN. ALTHOUGH MID CLOUDS WERE
SPREADING ACROSS W UPPER MI AND 850 MB TEMPS REMAINED NEAR
-3C...RELATIVELY DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD DECK HAS LIMITED ANY LAKE
EFFECT PCPN.
TODAY...EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND SFC HEATING
FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 50 AS WAA AND BREEZY SW WINDS
DEVELOP AHEAD THE SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH/FRONT ADVANCE TOWARD
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PCPN...WITH
MOST OF THE RAIN HOLDING OFF OVER THE WEST AFTER 00Z/TUE.
TONIGHT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE INFLOW AND ONLY MODERATE 700-300
QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...POPS WERE LOWERED A BIT
INTO THE 40-60 RANGE GREATEST OVER THE NW THIS EVENING AND OVER THE
ERN CWA LATE. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH SO THAT NO
SNOW IS EXPECTED AS THE COLDER AIR ONLY MOVES IN AFTER THE FORCING
AND DEEP MOISTURE DEPART TO THE EAST. ANY PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.1 INCH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
WET/UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LINGER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE SECOND HALF
AS THE PESKY LOW OVER ONTARIO FINALLY EXITS INTO CENTRAL AND N
QUEBEC.
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOR TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W THIRD OF THE
CWA AS THE NEARLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO GETS AS
CLOSE AS IT/S GOING TO TO UPPER MI...WITH THE PRIMARY TROUGH
EXTENDING ALL THE WAY DOWN THROUGH IL AT 18Z TUESDAY. 850MB TEMPS
ARE MODEST AROUND 0 TO 4C...AND WITH SFC TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S ON W-WSW WINDS...SNOW IS BASICALLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION AT THIS POINT.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW AS COOLER AIR SLIDES IN
BEHIND THE EXITING SFC-500MB LOW. EXPECT THE LOW TO SHIFT BACK UP TO
N ONTARIO BY 00Z THURSDAY. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO THE -3 TO -8C
RANGE ON UPSLOPE W-WNW LOW LEVEL WINDS. AN INCREASE PRESSURE
GRADIENT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN WINDS
HOVERING AROUND 20KTS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. GUSTS NEAR
30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DRIER AIR WILL INVADE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS COOL
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA...AND THE MAIN
TROUGH SHIFTS E. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LOOK FOR SOME RETURN FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND STATES. THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A SFC LOW/TROUGH MOVING
FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT 18Z SUNDAY. SHOULD
SEE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AT
THE EARLIEST. A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION MAY BE IN THE CARDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR LINGERING THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME/HEATING MIXING. LATER TOWARD SUNSET...EXPECT
CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND DEEP LOW
PRES IN NW ONTARIO. SOME -SHRA WILL IMPACT MAINLY CMX. IN THE
ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW OR HEAVIER
RAIN...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AT CMX...WHICH
WILL BE BE CLOSER TO THE STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
A SURFACE LOW ROTATING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT AND GENERALLY
SW WINDS OF 15-30KTS TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY (UP TO 30KTS)...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND
DECREASES WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
123 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
NW ONTARIO WITH A BROAD TROUGH DOMINATING THE CONUS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. A WEAK SHRTWV WAS SLIDING THROUGH UPPER MI WHILE A MUCH
STRONGER UPSTREAM SHRTWV LOBE WAS LOCATED OVER N CNTRL MANITOBA. AT
THE SFC...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILED OVER UPPER MI AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH INTO NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NE MN. ALTHOUGH MID CLOUDS WERE
SPREADING ACROSS W UPPER MI AND 850 MB TEMPS REMAINED NEAR
-3C...RELATIVELY DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD DECK HAS LIMITED ANY LAKE
EFFECT PCPN.
TODAY...EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND SFC HEATING
FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 50 AS WAA AND BREEZY SW WINDS
DEVELOP AHEAD THE SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH/FRONT ADVANCE TOWARD
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PCPN...WITH
MOST OF THE RAIN HOLDING OFF OVER THE WEST AFTER 00Z/TUE.
TONIGHT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE INFLOW AND ONLY MODERATE 700-300
QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...POPS WERE LOWERED A BIT
INTO THE 40-60 RANGE GREATEST OVER THE NW THIS EVENING AND OVER THE
ERN CWA LATE. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH SO THAT NO
SNOW IS EXPECTED AS THE COLDER AIR ONLY MOVES IN AFTER THE FORCING
AND DEEP MOISTURE DEPART TO THE EAST. ANY PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.1 INCH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
WET/UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LINGER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE SECOND HALF
AS THE PESKY LOW OVER ONTARIO FINALLY EXITS INTO CENTRAL AND N
QUEBEC.
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOR TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W THIRD OF THE
CWA AS THE NEARLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO GETS AS
CLOSE AS IT/S GOING TO TO UPPER MI...WITH THE PRIMARY TROUGH
EXTENDING ALL THE WAY DOWN THROUGH IL AT 18Z TUESDAY. 850MB TEMPS
ARE MODEST AROUND 0 TO 4C...AND WITH SFC TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S ON W-WSW WINDS...SNOW IS BASICALLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION AT THIS POINT.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW AS COOLER AIR SLIDES IN
BEHIND THE EXITING SFC-500MB LOW. EXPECT THE LOW TO SHIFT BACK UP TO
N ONTARIO BY 00Z THURSDAY. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO THE -3 TO -8C
RANGE ON UPSLOPE W-WNW LOW LEVEL WINDS. AN INCREASE PRESSURE
GRADIENT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN WINDS
HOVERING AROUND 20KTS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. GUSTS NEAR
30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DRIER AIR WILL INVADE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS COOL
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA...AND THE MAIN
TROUGH SHIFTS E. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LOOK FOR SOME RETURN FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND STATES. THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A SFC LOW/TROUGH MOVING
FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT 18Z SUNDAY. SHOULD
SEE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AT
THE EARLIEST. A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION MAY BE IN THE CARDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 732 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR LINGERING THROUGH TODAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME/HEATING MIXING. LATER TOWARD
SUNSET...EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND DEEP LOW PRES IN NW ONTARIO. SOME -SHRA WILL IMPACT MAINLY
CMX. IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW OR
HEAVIER RAIN...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AT
CMX...WHICH WILL BE BE CLOSER TO THE STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
A SURFACE LOW ROTATING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT AND GENERALLY
SW WINDS OF 15-30KTS TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY (UP TO 30KTS)...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND
DECREASES WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
304 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
LITTLE CHG IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS THE MAIN SHRTWV ALONG THE
MN/CANADIAN BORDER MOVES OFF TO THE NE OF MPX CWA. HOWEVER...A FEW
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING ONCE THIS SHRTWV ROTATES THRU THE GREAT LAKES.
IN ADDITION...ANOTHER SHRTWV WAS EVIDENT ACROSS ND EARLY THIS AFTN.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A SHORT PERIOD WHERE BOTH SHRTWV/S
COMBINED AND CREATE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL/EC MN AND
INTO WC WI BETWEEN 22-04Z THIS AFTN/EVENING. THIS IS NOTED ON THE
LATEST 15Z HRRR DERIVED REFLECTIVITY FORECAST. CURRENTLY THE
FORECAST HAS ONLY SPRINKLES IN CENTRAL/EC MN WITH CHC POPS IN WC
WI. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO PRECIPITATION AMTS WILL BE MINOR.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT QUIET...BUT TREND TOWARD A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THAT MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN COMES WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL VARIABILITY.
PATTERN EVOLUTION: CURRENT CLOSED LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO FILL IN
AND SHIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WRN RIDGE FLATTENING OUT AS
IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES
INTO CENTRAL NOAM ON SATURDAY...A POWERFUL PAC JET WILL START COMING
ONSHORE IS WASH/BC...WITH THE FIRST VESTIGES OF THIS JET ENERGY
WORKING INTO NRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW THIS WAVE WILL EVOLVE BETWEEN THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF. THE GFS SHOWS A WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEM THAT QUICKLY EVOLVES INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW NEXT WEEK...WHILE
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF...THOUGH WITH
THE 06.12 RUN IT SHIFTED SAID LOW FROM BEING OVER MN/ONT TO NOW
BEING DOWN OVER ARKANSAS.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDES
EAST...WE WILL SEE A COOL AND DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE DOWN FROM
CANADA WITH IT. THIS WILL KEEP OUR HIGHS RUNNING A GOOD 5-10 DEGS
BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE
OF CLOUD COVER...BUT IF WE SEE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...THEN WE SHOULD
HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING LOWS THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY MORNINGS DOWN IN
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...WE WILL ALSO BE
GETTING INTO THE H7-H6 BAROCLINIC ZONE CURRENTLY OUT OVER THE
DAKOTAS...WHICH IS WHAT WILL BE OUR SOURCE FOR VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF
CLOUD COVER WED/THU. THE 12Z MODELS HAVE ALSO CONTINUED TO TREND
DRIER THIS PERIOD...AS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR LOOKS TO SERIOUSLY IMPEDE
ANY PRECIP TRYING TO REACH THE SFC. STILL HAVE SOME REMNANT 20 POPS
LEFT WED NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN WHERE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF FALLING...BUT EVEN HERE...IT TRENDED QUITE A BIT
DRIER FROM WHAT ITS 06.00 MODEL RUN HAD.
FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE DIFFERENCES STEM FROM THE STRENGTH
OF THE PAC JET COMING IN BEHIND SATURDAYS FIRST SURGE. THE GFS KEEPS
A MUCH STRONGER JET GOING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES SUNDAY INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH KEEPS ITS ASSOCIATED LEAD WAVE AN
OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE ONE. A BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE JET ON THE ECMWF
ON SUNDAY ALLOWS THE INITIAL WAVE TO DIG FURTHER...ALLOWING IT TO
CLOSE OFF. THIS CLOSING OFF IS NOTHING NEW IN THE ECMWF...HOWEVER
THE TIMING/LOCATION OF WHERE IT CLOSES OFF HAS CHANGED CONSIDERABLY.
IN THE LAST 6 RUNS IT HAS TAKEN IT FROM CLOSING OFF MONDAY OVER SRN
MANITOBA /4.00 & 4.12 RUNS/...THEN MN/WRN ONTARIO /5.00...5.12 &
6.00 RUNS/...TO NOW CLOSING OFF ON TUESDAY DOWN OVER ARKANSAS. GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF VARIABILITY...JUST STUCK WITH THE BLENDED
FORECAST...WITH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND HIGHS GETTING BACK
INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. SAYING THERE WILL BE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE COMING DAYS IS AN
UNDERSTATEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS WITH CIGS AOA 4K THRU THE PERIOD. A
FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN
ACROSS CENTRAL/EC MN AND PARTS OF WC WI. BUT DUE TO VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE...TRACE AMTS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM
THE WSW/W/WNW THRU THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS DURING THE AFTN
TODAY...AND AGAIN TUESDAY LATE MORNING.
KMSP...
VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA LATE
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. CIGS WILL REMAIN AOA 4K. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY FROM THE WSW/W TODAY...MORE SW TONIGHT AND SHIFTING TO
THE WNW BY TUESDAY MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
THU...VFR. ISOLD -SHRA EARLY. WINDS N 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS N 5 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
121 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
LITTLE CHG IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS THE MAIN SHRTWV ALONG THE
MN/CANADIAN BORDER MOVES OFF TO THE NE OF MPX CWA. HOWEVER...A FEW
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING ONCE THIS SHRTWV ROTATES THRU THE GREAT LAKES.
IN ADDITION...ANOTHER SHRTWV WAS EVIDENT ACROSS ND EARLY THIS AFTN.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A SHORT PERIOD WHERE BOTH SHRTWV/S
COMBINED AND CREATE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL/EC MN AND
INTO WC WI BETWEEN 22-04Z THIS AFTN/EVENING. THIS IS NOTED ON THE
LATEST 15Z HRRR DERIVED REFLECTIVITY FORECAST. CURRENTLY THE
FORECAST HAS ONLY SPRINKLES IN CENTRAL/EC MN WITH CHC POPS IN WC
WI. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO PRECIPITATION AMTS WILL BE MINOR.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A POST-MATURE VERTICALLY STACKED
CYCLONE OVER NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN THE HANDLING OF
THIS LOW. ITS PRESENCE IN ONTARIO WILL KEEP THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS GOING ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO 20
MPH EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MIGRATE
SLOWLY EAST...AND FINALLY BE EAST OF ONTARIO BY THURSDAY. MOST OF
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE CONFINED NORTH OF
US...SO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY...WHILE FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL BE DEALING WITH CONTINUED CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA DUE
TO THIS WAVE MOVING THROUGH. FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE IS NOT
GREAT...AND VERY DRY AIR WILL OCCUPY THE REGION AHEAD OF
IT...MEANING ANY PRECIPITATION IT DOES PRODUCE WILL BE LIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED ONTARIO LOW WILL BE
GAINING STEAM TO THE NORTHEAST AND NO LONGER BLOCKING THE FLOW. AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND MAINTAIN CONTROL OF OUR LOCAL WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS REMNANTS FROM HURRICANE SIMON SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL OF US AND PORTIONS OF THE FA MAY SEE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS UNDER THE SURFACE HIGH.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
ACTIVE FOR US DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SPAWN A STRONG SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA. DECENT
AGREEMENT IS SEEN BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH
THE MAIN BEING TIMING OF ITS MOVEMENT THROUGH OR JUST TO THE NORTH
OF MINNESOTA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW IN THE
COMING DAYS...THE 00Z EC DID DROP IT SLIGHTLY SOUTH FROM THE
PREVIOUS RUN. IF THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS NORTH OF THE FA...EXPECT
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT...WITH A TEMPORARY WARM AIR SURGE POSSIBLE...BEFORE
PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. BEING
SIX DAYS OUT HOWEVER...MUCH WILL NEED TO BE SORTED OUT WITH THE
STRENGTH...TIMING...AND TRACK OF THIS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS WITH CIGS AOA 4K THRU THE PERIOD. A
FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN
ACROSS CENTRAL/EC MN AND PARTS OF WC WI. BUT DUE TO VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE...TRACE AMTS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM
THE WSW/W/WNW THRU THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS DURING THE AFTN
TODAY...AND AGAIN TUESDAY LATE MORNING.
KMSP...
VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA LATE
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. CIGS WILL REMAIN AOA 4K. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY FROM THE WSW/W TODAY...MORE SW TONIGHT AND SHIFTING TO
THE WNW BY TUESDAY MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
THU...VFR. ISOLD -SHRA EARLY. WINDS N 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS N 5 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
249 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday...Northwest flow aloft will continue as
the upper ridge remains over the west coast. Weak short wave
energy will move within the flow aloft tonight and may generate
some light showers, mainly in a narrow band from near Cut Bank to
east of Great Falls to just north of Lewistown. This lines up well
with RUC analysis but HRRR model data has the precipitation a bit
further to the west. Slightly cooler temperatures are in store for
the area Tuesday with a few isolated afternoon showers. The
pressure gradient will continue to favor breezy conditions Tuesday
afternoon. Additional short wave energy moves across the area
Wednesday with isolated showers again a possibility, mainly near
the international boundary and along the Rocky Mountain Front.
Temperatures will remain above seasonal averages.
Wednesday Night through Monday...Medium range models remain in
good agreement from midweek through Saturday but solutions
continue to diverge for the Sunday/Monday time frame. Period
starts off with northwest flow aloft over the Northern Rocky
Mountain region with temperatures that are near seasonal averages.
Moisture in the northwest flow will bring isolated rain and snow
showers to the western mountains through Friday afternoon. By
Friday evening, a strong upper level jet will push into western
Canada and the Pacific Northwest. However, beyond Saturday, the
strong flow aloft causes model solutions to diverge as short wave
strength and timing become more problematic. Based upon the
general pattern present in the medium range models am expecting
that increased Pacific moisture and upper level dynamics will
bring an growing chance for precipitation to the western mountains
with isolated to scattered showers moving out over the plains.
Have continued to trend PoPs upward for Saturday through Monday
with temperatures expected to cool back below seasonal averages.
Have also trended toward increased winds along the Rocky Mountain
Front during this period as well and am expecting that that one or
two high wind events along the east slopes of the Rockies are
possible between Friday and Monday. mpj
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1740Z.
Breezy westerly winds will continue over the region through the
afternoon hours...with generally mid/high level cloudiness
prevailing. Expect VFR conditions to prevail over much of the region
through the period. There is a small chance for an isolated shower
in the Lewistown area after 06z Tuesday...with the showers ending by
15z Tue. Brusda
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 47 68 47 70 / 10 10 10 10
CTB 44 67 43 70 / 20 20 10 10
HLN 48 75 46 72 / 10 10 10 10
BZN 42 73 40 70 / 0 10 10 10
WEY 32 64 31 62 / 0 0 10 0
DLN 44 74 41 70 / 0 0 10 0
HVR 42 64 40 67 / 10 20 10 20
LWT 44 66 43 69 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1259 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. DECIDED TO UPDATE TO ADD THOSE IN.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES OTHER THAN A SMALL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD ARE PCPN CHANCES
TONIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. OUR AREA IS STILL IN
STRONG NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW...WITH A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A
TROUGH TO THE EAST.
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS DID OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TODAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
TODAY...BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS SUNDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS OF 67-70
IN WESTERN IOWA AND MAINLY LOWER 70S IN EASTERN NEBRASKA.
YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRACK DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL GENERATE MAINLY MID LEVEL LIFT. INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY WEAK
THOUGH AND NOT AS DEEP AS IT WAS SUNDAY. KEPT POPS IN THE ISOLATED
CATEGORY AND ENDED THESE BY AROUND 09Z. LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S.
THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY. TUESDAY IS
PROBABLY GOING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH LOWER AND MID
70S IN EASTERN NEBRASKA...UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IN WESTERN IOWA.
850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR WEDNESDAY...BUT MIXING DOES NOT
LOOK AS GOOD. SO WE EXPECT HIGHS A A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
THOUGHT ABOUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT STARTING
OUT THIS PERIOD...THEN SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES
BY THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST PCPN THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED
TO BE DOWN ACROSS MISSOURI AND KANSAS...THE SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA COULD SEE RAIN TOTALS UP TO HALF AN INCH FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS SEEMED TOO WET
THOUGH AND WENT CLOSER TO VALUES SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF.
DID NOT MENTION ANY PCPN FOR FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES
RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND OCNL CIGS ABOVE FL050 SHOULD PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN DUE TO HEATING. A DISTURBANCE DROPPING
SE ACROSS MO VALLEY THIS EVENING SHOULD BRING AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD
OF CIGS TO TAF SITES THIS EVENING...GENERALLY MID LEVEL BASED.
A FEW SHOWERS COULD ACCOMPANY THIS DISTURBANCE...BUT NO MENTION
WAS MADE WITH 18Z ISSUANCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE/TIMING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...CHERMOK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1233 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN INTO PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHILE WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE.
ONLY CHANGE FOR MID-DAY UPDATE IS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER
THROUGHOUT THE AREA BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 832 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
A FEW LIGHT ECHOS STARTING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA INTO EASTERN MONTANA WHILE BAND OF CIRRUS WITH STRONG JET
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA. LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH
THEY MAY PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS
HAS BEEN ADDRESSED BY ADDING LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER UP WITH
CURRENT TREND. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
11Z RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN H300 N-S JET AROUND 135 KTS LYING ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ONGOING 12Z RAOB ALREADY CLOSE TO 150 NM
SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK. BAND OF JET STREAM CIRRUS ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IS PARALLELING THIS JET AND MOVING SOUTHEAST. SURFACE
WINDS AT KBIS WITHIN THE PAST HOUR GUSTING TO 20 KTS BRIEFLY. SO
EXPECT ANOTHER BREEZY DAY. ADJUSTED CLOUDS. OTHERWISE CURRENT FCST
LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING.
CURRENTLY...VERY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A 140KT JET
STREAM MOVING TOWARDS/OVER THE REGION...AND AS WE REMAIN IN
BETWEEN A DEEP UPPER LOW SOUTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY AND A BROAD RIDGE
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. SUBTLE EMBEDDED WAVES CONTINUE TO EITHER
RIDE OVER THE RIDGE OR SPIRAL AROUND THE LOW THEN PROCEED
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...RIGHT
NOW MAINLY RESULTING IN SCT-BKN AREAS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
A MORE DEFINED MID LEVEL IMPULSE...NOW CROSSING THE ALBERTA
ROCKIES...WILL APPROACH AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN EMBEDDED UPPER
JET STREAK ACROSS THE WEST...WILL HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...EVENTUALLY
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING ACROSS WESTERN INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LINGERING PRECIPITATION
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT EAST WITH THE UPPER JET
STREAK...BUT ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS MID LEVEL
FORCING WANES. SHOWERS WILL BE FAST MOVING SO NOT ANTICIPATING
MUCH IN REGARDS TO ACCUMULATION.
SOME ELEVATED CAPE IS INDICATED BY MODELS. WHILE WOULD NOT RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...CAPE IS RATHER LIMITED SO WILL NOT
MENTION THUNDER WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. FIGURED WE CAN ALWAYS
ADD IF NEEDED IF LIGHTNING STRIKES BEGIN TO POP UP UPSTREAM OFF TO
OUR WEST AND NORTH.
FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...BOUNDARY LAYER AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED HIGH PERCENTAGE
OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST...WENT A TAD
COOLER/SIMILAR HIGHS OVER MY SOUTHWEST THIRD.
MODELS PERFORMED FAIRLY WELL YESTERDAY WITH THE WINDS. WE
EVENTUALLY REACHED ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND GUSTS MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE BUFKIT INDICATED OVER MUCH OF THE ORIGINAL
ADVISORY AREA. FOR TODAY...BOTH THE 00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT KEEP THE
40KT + WIND GUSTS ABOVE THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER. SO WHILE IT
WILL BE BREEZY...PEAK WINDS WILL BE LOWER THAN WHAT OCCURRED
SUNDAY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...MORE SO GUSTING WITHIN THE 30S MPH
INSTEAD OF IN THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA BEGINNING TO FILL AND DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST. WHAT FOLLOWS
IS A TRANSITION TO A RATHER FAST H500 FLOW REGIME THAT RESULTS IN
A RATHER DRY WEATHER PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED. SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVES DO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN...ON WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN SATURDAY. OTHERWISE THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN COOL ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATING TO THE
60S SATURDAY. LOW MAINLY IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLD/SCT
-SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH NO VIS
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT...CIGS WILL
LOWER...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
BRINGING MVFR CIGS TO KMOT-KJMS...WHILE REMAINING MAJOR TERMINALS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
616 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE THE PARADE OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
PRODUCE PEA TO PENNY SIZE HAIL. WILL FOLLOW THE HRRR TREND OF
INCREASING POPS AND COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN
OHIO...MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL ALSO HAVE LIKELY POPS INITIALLY
FAR NORTHWEST. BY MID EVENING DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. WILL END PRECIP WEST IN THE EVENING AND TAPER EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. MID 40S LOOK GOOD FOR LOWS. NO
CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY MODELS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE RETURNING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF A DECENT SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WILL BEGIN WITH MOST AREAS DRY ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE
POP FAR SOUTHWEST TO START IN THE MORNING. THROUGH THE MORNING WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD CHANCE POPS EAST INTO NORTHEAST OHIO WHILE POPS
WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY SOUTHWEST. FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE
MOST AREAS TO CAT POPS AS MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE POSITIONED
FAVORABLY UNDER THE JET FOR DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BASE OF THE
TROF ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH BY EVENING CAT POPS WILL BE JUST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHILE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
WILL REMAIN WEST AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WEDNESDAY
MORNING 850MB TEMPS DROP TO +2C AND DROP TO NEAR 0C BY 18Z. WILL
NEED TO LEAVE CHANCE POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT IN THE SNOWBELT
COUNTIES...FOR RAIN. OTHERWISE WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD IN FOR A DECENT DAY. THURSDAY MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY.
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH DEEP OVERRUNNING MOISTURE THAT SPREADS EAST QUICKLY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE DIFFERENCES HOWEVER IS THAT WHILE THE
GFS BRINGS THE SWATH OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA...THEN NAM HOLDS
IT WELL TO THE SOUTH. THE SREF SHOWS MORE OF A THIRD SOLUTION
RATHER THAN SUPPORTING THE NAM OR GFS. SO FOR NOW WILL MEET IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE NAM AND GFS AND BRING CHANCE POPS TO NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND LIKELY POPS SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS SOUTH AND CHANCE NORTH. TEMPS
TUESDAY NEAR NORMAL AND THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
SHORT TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ETERNAL EASTERN UNITED STATES UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES RIDGE. SOME RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING TROUGH IN
THE WEST. EVENTUALLY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SHIFT EAST OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS REFLECTS TO THE SURFACE IN
THE FORM OF A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BY MONDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER OKLAHOMA AND MOVE EAST TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE LOW
ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL SET UP A FLOW OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN A BIT FOR FRIDAY BUT BEGIN TO
TRANSITION BACK UP AGAIN IN THE SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS
TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. A
BIG GAP HAS FORMED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ACTIVITY BUT IS EXPECTED
TO FILL IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL
THEN MOVE QUICKLY EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH FAIR WEATHER
RETURNING THROUGH THE MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND LOWER
CEILINGS ARRIVE AROUND 17Z IN THE WEST TOMORROW.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NON-VFR LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE LAKE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT TIGHT SUPPORTING WIND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING FROM THE SOUTH AND THEN BECOME
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE PERIODIC DROPS IN THE WIND BUT
THE OVERALL TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IS THE WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH THAT WE WILL NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
UNTIL THEN WINDS DO DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AS THEY BECOME NORTHERLY AND
DIMINISH EVEN FURTHER ON SATURDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
206 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE INCREASED MONDAY. DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST FLOW CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN LATE THURSDAY IN FAST ZONAL FLOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MUCH MORE ACTIVE AUTUMN PATTERN...AS SPOKES OF ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED SPEED MAXIMUMS ROTATE AROUND THE BROAD 500 MB TROF
OVER WESTERN ONTARIO.
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WAS INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR THE CLUSTERS TO COME LATE. AS MENTIONED THIS
MORNING...HARD TO TIME THE INDIVIDUAL SHOWER/STORM CLUSTERS IN THIS
FAST FLOW. MAIN 500 MB VORT MAXIMUM ON 16Z RAP NOT PASSING INTO OUR
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES UNTIL AFTER 06Z TUESDAY. WILL HOLD LIKELY POPS
THERE MOST OF THE NIGHT. WITHOUT AN ORGANIZED SURFACE
FEATURE...LIKE A FRONT...HARD TO TIME REMOVE OF POP...BUT DROPPED
BELOW 15 PCT IN THE MID OHIO VALLEY AFTER 06Z...IN WAKE OF THAT 500
MB AXIS. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LOWER IN THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...SO WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD LOWER CLOUDS THAN SURFACE BASED
FOG FOR THE PREDAWN HOURS.
FAVORED THE FASTER 12Z GFS OVER THE SLOWER NAM FOR NEXT DISTURBANCE
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SO INCREASED POPS FASTER FROM WEST TO
EAST.
WILL FINE TUNE MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT HOUR...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY BIG
CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN THIS PERIOD. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN FAST W-NW FLOW THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROF/COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH EAST EARLY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY.
HAVE CONTINUED TREND FROM EARLIER GRIDS AS WET WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY SEASONABLE CONDITIONS BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING ON THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
BECOMING ORIENTED WEST TO EAST...FROM KENTUCKY TO VIRGINIA...UNDER
MOIST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK ITS WAY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG FRONT
JUST TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED PERIOD. DEPENDING
ON WHICH MODEL YOU PICK...BY SATURDAY...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND
THE TIMING THESE FEATURES WILL DIFFER. POPULATING WITH WPC TEMPS AND
POPS GUIDANCE WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DEW POINT. THIS LEADS TO A CEILING DILEMMA FOR
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
TRENDING MORE TOWARD MORE CLOUDS AT 1 TO 2 THSD FT OVERNIGHT AND
VSBY 2 TO 4 MILES VERSUS THICKER SURFACE BASED FOG. ALL IN ALL
THOUGH...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN CEILING HEIGHTS 03Z THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY.
IN THE MEANWHILE...MORE DISTURBANCE AROUND THE BROAD 500 MB TROF
BASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HAVE MOSTLY CEILINGS
2 TO 3 THSD AND VSBY 3 TO 5 MILES IN CONVECTION.
FAVORED THE FASTER 12Z GFS OVER THE NAM WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ON
TUESDAY. SO HAVE SHOWERS/STORMS INCREASING SOONER...DURING THE 15Z
TO 18Z TIME FRAME IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES ON TUESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE AND TIMING OF LOWER CEILINGS VERSUS
DENSER FOG OVERNIGHT COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M H M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS OR FOG OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. IFR IN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/KMC/KTB
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
155 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE INCREASED MONDAY. DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST FLOW CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN LATE THURSDAY IN FAST ZONAL FLOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MUCH MORE ACTIVE AUTUMN PATTERN...AS SPOKES OF ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED SPEED MAXIMUMS ROTATE AROUND THE BROAD 500 MB TROF
OVER WESTERN ONTARIO.
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WAS INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR THE CLUSTERS TO COME LATE. AS MENTIONED THIS
MORNING...HARD TO TIME THE INDIVIDUAL SHOWER/STORM CLUSTERS IN THIS
FAST FLOW. MAIN 500 MB VORT MAXIMUM ON 16Z RAP NOT PASSING INTO OUR
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES UNTIL AFTER 06Z TUESDAY. WILL HOLD LIKELY POPS
THERE MOST OF THE NIGHT. WITHOUT AN ORGANIZED SURFACE
FEATURE...LIKE A FRONT...HARD TO TIME REMOVE OF POP...BUT DROPPED
BELOW 15 PCT IN THE MID OHIO VALLEY AFTER 06Z...IN WAKE OF THAT 500
MB AXIS. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LOWER IN THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...SO WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD LOWER CLOUDS THAN SURFACE BASED
FOG FOR THE PREDAWN HOURS.
FAVORED THE FASTER 12Z GFS OVER THE SLOWER NAM FOR NEXT DISTURBANCE
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SO INCREASED POPS FASTER FROM WEST TO
EAST.
WILL FINE TUNE MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT HOUR...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY BIG
CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS
PERIOD...TRANSITIONING FROM A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW AFTER MID WEEK. THIS BECOMES A
VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH NO GREAT TEMPERATURE CHANGES AS FRONTAL
SYSTEMS MEANDER BACK AND FORTH. WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO OPEN WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THERE WILL
BE GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS.
ONE SUCH FRONTAL SYSTEM COMES ACROSS TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. SOME INSTABILITY IS
INDICATED BY GUIDANCE SO WILL PUT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. MODELS ARE QUICKER
EXITING THIS FRONT...SO HAVE TAPERED OFF POPS QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT DOWN THIS WAY...AS THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES FLATTER. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY
WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM COMES IN THURSDAY...AND THIS IS ALSO HANDLED
FAIRLY WELL BY THE MODELS. BY THIS TIME...WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE
ZONAL...THE FRONT WILL BECOME ORIENTED MORE EAST TO WEST AS IT MOVES
INTO OUR AREA...AND GIVE US A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
MODELS INDICATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF COMING IN WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT AT THIS TIME FRAME...WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY
WATER ISSUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
USED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THIS WOULD KEEP
A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE REGION AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
IN THE AREA. THIS FRONT WOULD RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. A WAVE WOULD THEN MOVE ALONG THE FRONT
PUSHING IT BACK SOUTHWARD A BIT ON FRIDAY...ONLY TO RETURN
NORTHWARD AGAIN WITH ANOTHER WAVE ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DEW POINT. THIS LEADS TO A CEILING DILEMMA FOR
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
TRENDING MORE TOWARD MORE CLOUDS AT 1 TO 2 THSD FT OVERNIGHT AND
VSBY 2 TO 4 MILES VERSUS THICKER SURFACE BASED FOG. ALL IN ALL
THOUGH...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN CEILING HEIGHTS 03Z THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY.
IN THE MEANWHILE...MORE DISTURBANCE AROUND THE BROAD 500 MB TROF
BASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HAVE MOSTLY CEILINGS
2 TO 3 THSD AND VSBY 3 TO 5 MILES IN CONVECTION.
FAVORED THE FASTER 12Z GFS OVER THE NAM WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ON
TUESDAY. SO HAVE SHOWERS/STORMS INCREASING SOONER...DURING THE 15Z
TO 18Z TIME FRAME IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES ON TUESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE AND TIMING OF LOWER CEILINGS VERSUS
DENSER FOG OVERNIGHT COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M H M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS OR FOG OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. IFR IN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/KMC/KTB
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
325 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
FRESH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S WITH
A SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S CAPES WERE RISING INTO THE
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. USING THE HRRR OUTPUT SEE MORE SCATTERED
RAINFALL WITH PERHAPS A STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL. GFS/NAM HAVE
SUGGESTED MORE ROBUST STORMS TO DEVELOP. THERE IS LITTLE OR NO
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND THE OCTOBER DIABATIC CONTRIBUTION IS NOT
STRONG. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS
WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. SCATTERED RAINFALL IS THEN POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT.
AS THE WARM SECTOR MOVES INTO OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY WE CATCH A
BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER.
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THOUGHT MONDAY)...
ON THURSDAY THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE RAINFALL BECOMES ENHANCED
PROXIMAL TO A SLOW MOVING WEST TO EAST COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE THE REGION FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL IN
QUESTION...HOWEVER WHEN THE FRONT DOES MOVE IN TEMPERATURES AND
CONSISTENT RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY. FOR NOW THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
CONSERVATIVE WAITING FOR FUTURES MODEL RUNS BEFORE PLACING MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTCOME.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THIS FRONT THEN BEGINS TO MOVE BACK
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BELLES
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF SET
REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND KTUP BETWEEN
20-23Z. HAVE PUSHED TEMPO GROUP BACK AS A RESULT. ACTIVITY SHOULD
PUSH EAST BY 00-01Z. ADDITIONAL SHRA ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP AFTER 6Z
ACROSS CWA. HAVE PUT VCSH WORDING AT ALL TAF SITES. CIGS MAY LOWER
TO VFR AROUND 12Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD. SW WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 12 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH DURING EVENING HOURS BUT WILL BEGIN TO PICK
BACK UP AGAIN AROUND 12Z.
KRM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1211 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.UPDATE... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
FOCUS IS ON THE REDEVELOPMENT FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION IS
WHERE AND WHAT INTENSITY. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE NAM THE MOST BULLISH FOR REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE/NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON MOVING
SOUTH THROUGH EVENING. THE GFS SUPPORTS REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA AND THE HRRR IS NOT SHOWING AS MUCH ACTIVITY
WITH LATEST RUN.
THE ISSUE IS FORCING. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND JET MAX ROTATING
THROUGH THE WEST SIDE OF DEEP TROUGH IS THE FOCUS. NOT A LOT OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE WITH INSTABILITY DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW MUCH WE CAN
WARM UNDER AN EARLY OCTOBER SUN. INSTABILITY LOOKS DECENT ON THE
NAM ALTHOUGH THAT IS DEPENDENT ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACHING
NEAR 80....THEREFORE INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION IS CONDITIONAL ON
OUR SURFACE HEATING. FOR NOW WILL KEEP LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS AS MAIN THREAT IN THE HWO.
HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE A LITTLE SECTION OF THE SLIGHT RISK ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE LEAVING A BULK THE EXISTING AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
BELLES
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST THAT
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. ALSO A SMALL CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN MISSOURI BOOT HEEL MOVING EAST. EXPECT THESE
STORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING AND THEN MORE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY INCREASES
ALONG WITH AVAILABLE ENERGY THIS AFTERNOON AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...IN CANADA MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THE FIRST IS BRINGING THE CURRENT SHOWERS AND THEN THE SECOND WILL
ALLOW FOR THE ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY DUE TO
THESE SHORTWAVES AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.
AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA TODAY. AFTER TODAY...THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM DOESN/T MOVE
MUCH...IT STICKS AROUND THE MID-SOUTH FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER CANADA BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...THIS ALLOWS MORE MOISTURE TO BE PUSHED
INTO AREA FROM THE WHAT WILL BE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL STORM
SIMON. THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA FINAL PUSHES TO THE EAST AT THE END
OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
WHICH MAY BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING PART
OF THE WEEK AND THEN WILL COOL OFF TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ARE UPPER 70S FOR
HIGHS AND MID 50S FOR LOWS.
TLSJR
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF SET
REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND KTUP BETWEEN
20-23Z. HAVE PUSHED TEMPO GROUP BACK AS A RESULT. ACTIVITY SHOULD
PUSH EAST BY 00-01Z. ADDITIONAL SHRA ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP AFTER 6Z
ACROSS CWA. HAVE PUT VCSH WORDING AT ALL TAF SITES. CIGS MAY LOWER
TO VFR AROUND 12Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD. SW WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 12 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH DURING EVENING HOURS BUT WILL BEGIN TO PICK
BACK UP AGAIN AROUND 12Z.
KRM
&&
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1113 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.UPDATE...
FOCUS IS ON THE REDEVELOPMENT FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION IS
WHERE AND WHAT INTENSITY. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE NAM THE MOST BULLISH FOR REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE/NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON MOVING
SOUTH THROUGH EVENING. THE GFS SUPPORTS REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA AND THE HRRR IS NOT SHOWING AS MUCH ACTIVITY
WITH LATEST RUN.
THE ISSUE IS FORCING. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND JET MAX ROTATING
THROUGH THE WEST SIDE OF DEEP TROUGH IS THE FOCUS. NOT A LOT OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE WITH INSTABILITY DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW MUCH WE CAN
WARM UNDER AN EARLY OCTOBER SUN. INSTABILITY LOOKS DECENT ON THE
NAM ALTHOUGH THAT IS DEPENDENT ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACHING
NEAR 80....THEREFORE INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION IS CONDITIONAL ON
OUR SURFACE HEATING. FOR NOW WILL KEEP LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS AS MAIN THREAT IN THE HWO.
HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE A LITTLE SECTION OF THE SLIGHT RISK ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE LEAVING A BULK THE EXISTING AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
BELLES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST THAT SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. ALSO A SMALL CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN MISSOURI BOOT HEEL MOVING EAST. EXPECT THESE
STORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING AND THEN MORE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY INCREASES
ALONG WITH AVAILABLE ENERGY THIS AFTERNOON AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...IN CANADA MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THE FIRST IS BRINGING THE CURRENT SHOWERS AND THEN THE SECOND WILL
ALLOW FOR THE ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY DUE TO
THESE SHORTWAVES AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.
AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA TODAY. AFTER TODAY...THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM DOESN/T MOVE
MUCH...IT STICKS AROUND THE MID-SOUTH FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER CANADA BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...THIS ALLOWS MORE MOISTURE TO BE PUSHED
INTO AREA FROM THE WHAT WILL BE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL STORM
SIMON. THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA FINAL PUSHES TO THE EAST AT THE END
OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
WHICH MAY BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING PART
OF THE WEEK AND THEN WILL COOL OFF TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ARE UPPER 70S FOR
HIGHS AND MID 50S FOR LOWS.
TLSJR
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONE
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF
WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. MORE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT.
ARS
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
338 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.UPDATE...
THE CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING/S THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS HAVE BROKEN UP. THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING/S STORMS IS QUITE APPARENT ON THE
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS IN AN ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE
WINDS...EXTENDING FROM WEST OF COMANCHE TO WEST OF LAMPASAS
SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES NEAR AND
WEST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE AROUND 90 DEGREES. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES
ARE MOSTLY IN THE 80S...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WHERE THE RECOVERY HAS BEEN SLOWER SO TEMPERATURES ARE MID 70S.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION FOR THE REST OF TODAY/S FORECAST IS WHETHER
ANY STORMS WILL DEVELOP BEFORE SUNSET. THE CUMULUS FIELD ALONG THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE
WHERE THE CIN IS LOWEST. THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE RELATIVELY
LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT WILL KEEP 10-20 PERCENT POPS
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED INTO THE EVENING
HOURS SOUTHEAST OF A BOWIE TO COMANCHE LINE. ANY STORMS THAT FORM
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...BUT AS NOTED THE PROBABILITY IS NOT VERY HIGH.
AFTER THIS EVENING...EXPECT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON MOVES NORTHEAST AND THEN
EAST AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE LOW...A COLD FRONT WILL SINK DOWN
THE PLAINS. AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHERN ZONES. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN AREA WIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...AND THEN STARTS TO LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY UNTIL A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO OUR
EAST.
58
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 236 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
1434 CDT...LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS AND LACK OF CU ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOW THAT WACO SHOULD REMAIN STORM FREE. HAVE AMENDED
TAF TO REMOVE VCTS. 84
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...
METROPLEX HAS HAD TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER SINCE THIS
MORNING/S MCS. HI RES MODELS KEEP THE METROPLEX STORM-FREE...BUT
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAP THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ALSO
SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SO ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE NOT
LIKELY...ANY EXTRA HEATING OR WEAKER CAP THAN FORECAST WILL ALLOW
CONVECTION TO FORM. THERE IS GOOD SHEAR AND STRONG
INSTABILITY...SO ANY STORM THAT DOES FORM MAY BECOME SEVERE AND
POSE A HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS WELL. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW
LATE AFTERNOON AS THE TIME WHEN CAP IS WEAKEST. AT THIS TIME WILL
LEAVE METROPLEX TAFS STORM-FREE BUT WILL KEEP WATCHING FOR ANY
CHANGE THAT WOULD MAKE STORM OCCURRENCE MORE POSSIBLE.
AT WACO...BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THROUGH BUT IT DID NOT RAIN AT THE
AIRPORT SO HEATING WILL ALSO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. NAM IS
FORECASTING POSSIBLE STORMS IN THE WACO AREA SO WILL KEEP VCTS
21Z-00Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW LOW STRATUS FOR MORNING MVFR
CEILINGS ARE IN THE TAF AS WELL. 84
&&
.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
THE MCS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF I-35
OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING HAS MOVED TO SOUTHEAST OF AN ATHENS TO
WACO LINE AS OF 1130 AM. THE BIG QUESTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON
IS HOW MUCH WILL THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED ALONG AND NORTH OF A CANTON TO GRANBURY
LINE. WITH FORECAST AFTERNOON CAPES ARE IN THE 2500 J/KG ARE
GREATER RANGE AND DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE
ONLY BOUNDARY THAT IS READILY APPARENT TO SERVE AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM EXTENDS EAST OF A STEPHENVILLE TO CAMERON LINE. IF
THESE STORMS DEVELOP...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS THE EVER-PRESENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING THREAT.
58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY OCCURRING EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35/35E. AT 3 AM...A SMALL LINEAR COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS ABOUT TO CROSS THE RED RIVER WHILE OTHER
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN AND WEST OF THE DFW
METROPLEX. AT THIS TIME...THE STORMS NEAR THE RED RIVER WERE THE
STRONGEST BUT BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE STORMS
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST. HAIL AROUND 1 INCH AND/OR GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THROUGH
MIDDAY...HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA.
THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A CONDITIONAL SEVERE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PART OF THE REGION.
AROUND MIDDAY...SEVERAL OF THE MODELS MOVE A H700 THERMAL RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM WEST
TO EAST. THIS WAA WILL OCCUR UNDER VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHERE H500 TEMPS ARE AROUND -12
DEGREES C. THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT COMBINED WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTS IN MODERATE TO HIGH CAPE VALUES BETWEEN
2500-3500 J/KG. THE WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THE WAA NEAR H700 WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. IN ADDITION...BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS WITH VALUES AROUND 40-45 KTS AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE STEEP BETWEEN THE WARMING TEMPS AT H700 AND THE COLD TEMPS AT
H500.
THE QUESTION IS...WILL WE GET STORMS? A SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE IS
NOT NOTED IN THE MODELS TO PROVIDE LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION. BUT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING LIFT OCCURRING ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH MAY BE TIED TO THE WAA AROUND THE H700 LAYER. SEVERAL
OF THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE PRODUCING QPF OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF
THE THERMAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT
DEVELOPING ANY STORMS IN THE REGION. ANOTHER INTERESTING FEATURE
TO NOTE IS THAT THE RAP...ECMWF...CANADIAN ALL DEVELOP A DRYLINE
OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS IS REALIZED...IT
COULD BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
ALSO...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THIS
MORNING/S CONVECTION.
IN SUMMARY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP SOME WHERE
IN THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON BUT IF STORMS DO DEVELOP THEY HAVE A
CHANCE TO BECOME SEVERE WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT. FOR
NOW...WILL CARRY 20-30 POPS EAST OF A LINE FROM SHERMAN TO FORT
WORTH TO COMANCHE. THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
MESOSCALE FEATURES AND ENVIRONMENT AND ALSO SHORT-TERM AND HI-RES
MODELS FOR POSSIBLY EARLY HINTS THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA IN ANOTHER AREA OF WAA. SPC HAS
HIGHLIGHTED AREAS JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA FOR STRONG
OR SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LEAVE A 20 POP ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
OUR PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BE
PUSHED INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS THE REMNANTS OF SIMON MERGE WITH
A WEAK TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A FRONT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION
ON FRIDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE REGION AND RETREAT NORTH ON SUNDAY...BUT IT WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WILL
CARRY LOW RAIN CHANCES INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS BROAD
TROUGHING SETS UP OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY AND SOUTH WINDS KEEP
ADEQUATE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR PRECIPITATION.
82/JLD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 71 96 73 93 73 / 10 5 5 5 10
WACO, TX 70 93 70 92 70 / 20 5 5 10 10
PARIS, TX 67 91 69 90 68 / 20 10 5 10 10
DENTON, TX 67 97 70 92 71 / 10 5 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 67 95 70 92 70 / 10 5 5 5 10
DALLAS, TX 71 95 74 93 73 / 10 5 5 5 10
TERRELL, TX 70 94 72 93 72 / 20 5 5 5 10
CORSICANA, TX 71 93 72 92 72 / 20 5 5 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 69 93 69 91 70 / 20 5 5 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 66 97 68 92 67 / 10 5 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
84/58
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
236 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.AVIATION...
1434 CDT...LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS AND LACK OF CU ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOW THAT WACO SHOULD REMAIN STORM FREE. HAVE AMENDED
TAF TO REMOVE VCTS. 84
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...
METROPLEX HAS HAD TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER SINCE THIS
MORNING/S MCS. HI RES MODELS KEEP THE METROPLEX STORM-FREE...BUT
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAP THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ALSO
SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SO ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE NOT
LIKELY...ANY EXTRA HEATING OR WEAKER CAP THAN FORECAST WILL ALLOW
CONVECTION TO FORM. THERE IS GOOD SHEAR AND STRONG
INSTABILITY...SO ANY STORM THAT DOES FORM MAY BECOME SEVERE AND
POSE A HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS WELL. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW
LATE AFTERNOON AS THE TIME WHEN CAP IS WEAKEST. AT THIS TIME WILL
LEAVE METROPLEX TAFS STORM-FREE BUT WILL KEEP WATCHING FOR ANY
CHANGE THAT WOULD MAKE STORM OCCURRENCE MORE POSSIBLE.
AT WACO...BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THROUGH BUT IT DID NOT RAIN AT THE
AIRPORT SO HEATING WILL ALSO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. NAM IS
FORECASTING POSSIBLE STORMS IN THE WACO AREA SO WILL KEEP VCTS
21Z-00Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW LOW STRATUS FOR MORNING MVFR
CEILINGS ARE IN THE TAF AS WELL. 84
&&
.UPDATE...
THE MCS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF I-35
OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING HAS MOVED TO SOUTHEAST OF AN ATHENS TO
WACO LINE AS OF 1130 AM. THE BIG QUESTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON
IS HOW MUCH WILL THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED ALONG AND NORTH OF A CANTON TO GRANBURY
LINE. WITH FORECAST AFTERNOON CAPES ARE IN THE 2500 J/KG ARE
GREATER RANGE AND DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE
ONLY BOUNDARY THAT IS READILY APPARENT TO SERVE AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM EXTENDS EAST OF A STEPHENVILLE TO CAMERON LINE. IF
THESE STORMS DEVELOP...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS THE EVER-PRESENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING THREAT.
58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY OCCURRING EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35/35E. AT 3 AM...A SMALL LINEAR COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS ABOUT TO CROSS THE RED RIVER WHILE OTHER
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN AND WEST OF THE DFW
METROPLEX. AT THIS TIME...THE STORMS NEAR THE RED RIVER WERE THE
STRONGEST BUT BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE STORMS
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST. HAIL AROUND 1 INCH AND/OR GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THROUGH
MIDDAY...HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA.
THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A CONDITIONAL SEVERE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PART OF THE REGION.
AROUND MIDDAY...SEVERAL OF THE MODELS MOVE A H700 THERMAL RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM WEST
TO EAST. THIS WAA WILL OCCUR UNDER VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHERE H500 TEMPS ARE AROUND -12
DEGREES C. THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT COMBINED WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTS IN MODERATE TO HIGH CAPE VALUES BETWEEN
2500-3500 J/KG. THE WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THE WAA NEAR H700 WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. IN ADDITION...BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS WITH VALUES AROUND 40-45 KTS AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE STEEP BETWEEN THE WARMING TEMPS AT H700 AND THE COLD TEMPS AT
H500.
THE QUESTION IS...WILL WE GET STORMS? A SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE IS
NOT NOTED IN THE MODELS TO PROVIDE LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION. BUT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING LIFT OCCURRING ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH MAY BE TIED TO THE WAA AROUND THE H700 LAYER. SEVERAL
OF THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE PRODUCING QPF OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF
THE THERMAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT
DEVELOPING ANY STORMS IN THE REGION. ANOTHER INTERESTING FEATURE
TO NOTE IS THAT THE RAP...ECMWF...CANADIAN ALL DEVELOP A DRYLINE
OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS IS REALIZED...IT
COULD BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
ALSO...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THIS
MORNING/S CONVECTION.
IN SUMMARY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP SOME WHERE
IN THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON BUT IF STORMS DO DEVELOP THEY HAVE A
CHANCE TO BECOME SEVERE WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT. FOR
NOW...WILL CARRY 20-30 POPS EAST OF A LINE FROM SHERMAN TO FORT
WORTH TO COMANCHE. THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
MESOSCALE FEATURES AND ENVIRONMENT AND ALSO SHORT-TERM AND HI-RES
MODELS FOR POSSIBLY EARLY HINTS THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA IN ANOTHER AREA OF WAA. SPC HAS
HIGHLIGHTED AREAS JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA FOR STRONG
OR SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LEAVE A 20 POP ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
OUR PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BE
PUSHED INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS THE REMNANTS OF SIMON MERGE WITH
A WEAK TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A FRONT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION
ON FRIDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE REGION AND RETREAT NORTH ON SUNDAY...BUT IT WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WILL
CARRY LOW RAIN CHANCES INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS BROAD
TROUGHING SETS UP OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY AND SOUTH WINDS KEEP
ADEQUATE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR PRECIPITATION.
82/JLD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 72 95 73 92 71 / 10 10 5 10 10
WACO, TX 70 93 70 91 70 / 10 10 5 10 10
PARIS, TX 68 92 69 88 68 / 20 10 5 10 10
DENTON, TX 69 94 70 92 69 / 10 5 5 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 69 94 69 91 69 / 20 10 5 10 10
DALLAS, TX 73 95 73 92 72 / 10 10 5 10 10
TERRELL, TX 72 93 72 91 72 / 20 10 5 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 70 93 71 91 71 / 20 10 5 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 69 93 69 91 69 / 10 10 5 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 67 96 69 93 68 / 10 5 5 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1231 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.AVIATION...
A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND OVER THE
HOUSTON CWA. LATEST AREA RADAR IMAGES SHOW AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
PUSHING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND APPROACHING THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. ACCORDING TO THE ETA TOOL...SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL ARRIVE TO THE AUSTIN
AREA AROUND 1830Z FOR A QUICK WIND SHIFT. SEA-BREEZE
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY INTERACT WITH THIS OUTFLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON
FOR A NEW LINE OF STORMS TO FORM MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
(NOT EXPECTING FOR THIS NEW LINE OF STORMS TO HAVE AN IMPACT TO
THE I-35 SITES). OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS ALONG THE I-35 TERMINALS AROUND 09Z TO
17Z TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD ON
TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
UPDATE...MCS DROPPING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING.
CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING AND LIGHTNING DECREASING INDICATING A
WEAKENING TREND. HI RES HRRR AND 4KM CSU WRF WERE CLOSEST IN
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MCS. BOTH ARE INDICATING ISOLATED TO LOW
END SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
SOUTHEAST CWA EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL INTERACTION FROM
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE WEAKENING MCS. VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE TO POPS FOR TODAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
15Z-16Z THEN BECOMING VFR. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY NEAR 10 KNOTS.
TONIGHT AGAIN EXPECT TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG
THE ESCARPMENT. SIMULATED WRF IS INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WESTERN PORTIONS 07Z-09Z THEN FURTHER EAST 10Z-12Z. THINK THE
I-35 SITES WILL SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP 07Z-08Z THEN SPREAD INTO
KDRT AROUND 11Z. COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS
MORNING WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY EAST OF
I-35. FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE ISOLATED
NATURE AND MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF I-35. THIS
CONVECTION WILL BE HEAT DRIVEN AND WOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A 20 TO 30 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET HAS ALLOWED FOR A HIGHER COVERAGE OF
OVERNIGHT STRATUS TONIGHT. GIVEN THE STRATUS...SOUTH WINDS AROUND
10 MPH AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE RUNNING
ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. THE 00Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOWED A VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA.
THE UPPER LOW EXTENDS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH...ALLOWING NORTHWEST FLOW
AT 500 MB ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BUT WESTERLIES ARE PREVAILING OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW HAS SPARKED
OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY IS
PUSHING SOUTH...BUT WILL STEER MORE SOUTHEAST AS THE STORMS
ENCOUNTER THE WESTERLIES. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A DIRECT IMPACT
FROM THIS ACTIVITY...BUT THIS DOES SHOW US THAT THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
RECOVERED FROM THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT AND THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
LIFT WILL STAY WELL EAST OF THE AREA TODAY BUT HIGH-RES MODELS ARE
SHOWING ISOLATED ACTIVITY...MAINLY EAST OF I-35. ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH PEAK HEATING AND SHOULD
WEAKEN NEAR SUNSET. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA.
TOMORROW...NOW TROPICAL STORM SIMON WILL BE MOVING CLOSER TO BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND AS IT DOES...THE SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. 850 TEMPS WILL RESPOND AND
WARM INTO THE 18-21C RANGE. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST OF
THE WEEK...WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S OR ABOUT 8-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WITH SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE...NO RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE MAIN DISCUSSION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN WHAT WILL
ULTIMATELY HAPPEN WITH THE REMNANTS OF SIMON. OUR THINKING HAS
SEEMED TO COME TO FRUITION WITH THE GFS BACKING OFF ON THE QUICKER
MOVEMENT AND COLD FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID-WEEK. THE 00Z GFS HAS COME INTO
MORE OF AN AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF/CANADIAN. THROUGH FRIDAY...THE
REMNANT UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND NEAR COLORADO. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA TO SHIFT EAST. ENOUGH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES TO ALLOW FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY BUT SHOULD STALL
NORTH OF OUR CWA. WILL CARRY POPS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED ACTIVITY WITH A
BOUNDARY NEARING THE AREA. BY SATURDAY THE UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH SIMON WILL FINALLY FLATTEN WITH ZONAL FLOW RETURNING ALOFT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO SURGE NORTHWARD WITH POPS ONLY REMAINING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
EAST ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS THEN DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING
OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY/MONDAY. THE ECMWF
HAS THE LOW MOVING WELL SOUTH OF THE GFS PATH AND THEREFORE THE
ECMWF IS FORECASTING OUR NEXT FRONT JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WHILE THE GFS PREVAILS SOUTHERLY FLOW.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 72 94 73 92 73 / - 0 0 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 69 94 70 92 70 / - 0 0 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 71 93 71 92 72 / - 0 0 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 70 92 71 88 71 / 0 0 0 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 68 95 72 91 73 / - 0 - 10 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 71 92 72 90 72 / - 0 0 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 93 71 91 71 / - 0 - 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 71 93 71 92 71 / - 0 0 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 91 73 90 73 / 10 0 - 20 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 92 73 90 74 / - 0 0 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 94 73 92 74 / - 0 0 10 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1124 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.UPDATE...MCS DROPPING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING.
CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING AND LIGHTNING DECREASING INDICATING A
WEAKENING TREND. HI RES HRRR AND 4KM CSU WRF WERE CLOSEST IN
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MCS. BOTH ARE INDICATING ISOLATED TO LOW
END SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
SOUTHEAST CWA EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL INTERACTION FROM
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE WEAKENING MCS. VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE TO POPS FOR TODAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
15Z-16Z THEN BECOMING VFR. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY NEAR 10 KNOTS.
TONIGHT AGAIN EXPECT TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG
THE ESCARPMENT. SIMULATED WRF IS INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WESTERN PORTIONS 07Z-09Z THEN FURTHER EAST 10Z-12Z. THINK THE
I-35 SITES WILL SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP 07Z-08Z THEN SPREAD INTO
KDRT AROUND 11Z. COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS
MORNING WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY EAST OF
I-35. FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE ISOLATED
NATURE AND MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF I-35. THIS
CONVECTION WILL BE HEAT DRIVEN AND WOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A 20 TO 30 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET HAS ALLOWED FOR A HIGHER COVERAGE OF
OVERNIGHT STRATUS TONIGHT. GIVEN THE STRATUS...SOUTH WINDS AROUND
10 MPH AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE RUNNING
ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. THE 00Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOWED A VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA.
THE UPPER LOW EXTENDS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH...ALLOWING NORTHWEST FLOW
AT 500 MB ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BUT WESTERLIES ARE PREVAILING OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW HAS SPARKED
OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY IS
PUSHING SOUTH...BUT WILL STEER MORE SOUTHEAST AS THE STORMS
ENCOUNTER THE WESTERLIES. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A DIRECT IMPACT
FROM THIS ACTIVITY...BUT THIS DOES SHOW US THAT THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
RECOVERED FROM THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT AND THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
LIFT WILL STAY WELL EAST OF THE AREA TODAY BUT HIGH-RES MODELS ARE
SHOWING ISOLATED ACTIVITY...MAINLY EAST OF I-35. ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH PEAK HEATING AND SHOULD
WEAKEN NEAR SUNSET. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA.
TOMORROW...NOW TROPICAL STORM SIMON WILL BE MOVING CLOSER TO BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND AS IT DOES...THE SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. 850 TEMPS WILL RESPOND AND
WARM INTO THE 18-21C RANGE. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST OF
THE WEEK...WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S OR ABOUT 8-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WITH SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE...NO RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE MAIN DISCUSSION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN WHAT WILL
ULTIMATELY HAPPEN WITH THE REMNANTS OF SIMON. OUR THINKING HAS
SEEMED TO COME TO FRUITION WITH THE GFS BACKING OFF ON THE QUICKER
MOVEMENT AND COLD FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID-WEEK. THE 00Z GFS HAS COME INTO
MORE OF AN AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF/CANADIAN. THROUGH FRIDAY...THE
REMNANT UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND NEAR COLORADO. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA TO SHIFT EAST. ENOUGH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES TO ALLOW FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY BUT SHOULD STALL
NORTH OF OUR CWA. WILL CARRY POPS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED ACTIVITY WITH A
BOUNDARY NEARING THE AREA. BY SATURDAY THE UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH SIMON WILL FINALLY FLATTEN WITH ZONAL FLOW RETURNING ALOFT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO SURGE NORTHWARD WITH POPS ONLY REMAINING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
EAST ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS THEN DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING
OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY/MONDAY. THE ECMWF
HAS THE LOW MOVING WELL SOUTH OF THE GFS PATH AND THEREFORE THE
ECMWF IS FORECASTING OUR NEXT FRONT JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WHILE THE GFS PREVAILS SOUTHERLY FLOW.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 90 72 94 73 92 / 20 - 0 0 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 90 69 94 70 92 / 20 - 0 0 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 90 71 93 71 92 / 10 - 0 0 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 88 70 92 71 88 / 10 0 0 0 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 90 68 95 72 91 / - - 0 - 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 88 71 92 72 90 / 20 - 0 0 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 89 71 93 71 91 / 10 - 0 - 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 90 71 93 71 92 / 20 - 0 0 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 88 73 91 73 90 / 40 10 0 - 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 90 74 92 73 90 / 10 - 0 0 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 90 73 94 73 92 / 10 - 0 0 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
226 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 00Z
WITH SHORT WAVE TONIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A VERY LIGHT SHOWER OR
SPRINKLES BUT THE STRONGER 700 MB OMEGA STAYS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...REFLECTED IN THE MAJORITY OF THE
MODEL QPF FIELD...SO NOTHING MEASURABLE EXPECTED. CLOUDS AND WEAK
WARM ADVECTION WILL HOLD LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S.
DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A MID DECK IN THE SOUTHWEST...
BUT SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S IN THE SOUTH HALF...WITH
AROUND 60 READINGS INT EH NORTH HALF OF THE CWA GIVEN MIXING UP TO
FORECAST 925 MB TEMPERATURES.
.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS WISCONSIN TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE STRONG JET MAX WHICH WAS UPSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS
PUSHES EAST ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WEAK
MAINLY DOWNWARD MOTION AT 700 MB WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER BELOW A DEVELOPING ISOTHERMAL
LAYER AROUND 5 THSD FT TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE RISING TO 7 THSD FT
WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH A RESULTING
INVERSION. MAIN CONCERN IS WITH CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS POTENTIAL
WITH THE NARROW MOIST LAYER. NAM MOS SHOWING CLEARING SKIES
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS WEDNESDAY. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
A POTENTIAL OF A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE WEST/NORTHWEST AS THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS JAMES BAY CANADA. SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET MAX LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER
DIVERGENCE. HOWEVER 700 MB UPWARD MOTION IS ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.
THE GFS AND NAM ARE DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ALTHOUGH THE 00Z
ECMWF STILL BRINGS SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. PREFER THE DRIER MORE SOUTH
MODELS. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...
.THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
THE MODELS ARE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER AND THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED
TOWARD THE GFS IN A WEAKER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST U.S.
FRIDAY THAT REACHES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.
THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS/DGEX WITH KEEPING THE HIGH
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BE A GOOD SETUP
FOR LATE NIGHT FROST BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS A LITTLE MORE 850 MB RH WHICH COULD KEEP
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS INTO THE NORTHEAST AREAS TOWARD
FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN.
.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE MODELS BEGIN TO FORM AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THE 00Z ECMWF LIFTS THE SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO THE TROUGH...WITH THE GFS TAKING
THIS EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH. THE
00Z ECMWF IS STRONGER.
THE SURFACE PATTERNS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF HAVING
A DOUBLE STRUCTURE TO THE LOW AND IS FASTER WITH THE
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY. BY MONDAY EVENING THE ECMWF HAS AN OCCLUDED
LOW IN THE LAKE SUPERIOR VICINITY WITH THE GFS AT A SIMILAR
LOCATION...BUT WITH THE LOW STILL IN THE CYCLOGENISIS PROCESS.
THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOW TRENDING SLOWER WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERN LOW.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
BACK EDGE OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS BETWEEN 4500 AND
5000 FT NEARING KMSN AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AS IT
CLEARS TO THE EAST BY 00Z. SURFACE WINDS...WHICH HAVE BEEN GUSTING
TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL ALSO DIMINISH.
THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS SET UP CONDITIONS FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING IN THE WEST AND SPREADING EAST AROUND
06Z...AND LINGERING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS RAP AND NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS BETWEEN 600 FT AND 2K FT OF THE
SURFACE INCREASE TO 34-36 KTS BETWEEN 05Z AND 14Z AS THE WAVE MOVES
IN SO WILL ADD LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO FORECAST...STARTING AND
ENDING EARLIER AT KMSN VERSUS THE EASTERN SITES.
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER 00Z WITH SHORT WAVE TONIGHT BRINGS
A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE BUT MOST OF THE
BETTER FORCING STAYS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF TAF
LOCATIONS...SO WILL LEAVE OUT.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS... THOUGH
A FEW GUSTS MAY REACH CRITERIA...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE FREQUENT
ENOUGH FOR A HEADLINE. THE OFFSHORE FETCH WILL KEEP THE WAVES AT
OR BELOW 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHER WAVES TOWARD OPEN WATER.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HENTZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1153 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014
.UPDATE...
THICK CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH. DIURNAL CUMULUS HAVE POPPED UP BEHIND
THE WAVE BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LOW-LEVEL RH FORECASTS SHOW
THIS SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN SCATTERED BY MID-AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL OFFSET SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT BUT WILL BUMP UP HIGHS
A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
SOLID VFR CLOUD DECK HAS CLEARED EASTERN TAF SITES WITH SURFACE
TROUGH. SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 FT
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL SEE A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER 00Z WITH SHORT WAVE TONIGHT BRINGS
A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE BUT MOST OF THE
BETTER FORCING STAYS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF TAF
LOCATIONS. RAP AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS BETWEEN 600 FT
AND 2K FT OF THE SURFACE INCREASE TO 34-36 KTS BETWEEN 05Z AND 14Z
AS THE WAVE MOVES IN SO WILL ADD LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO
FORECAST...STARTING AND ENDING EARLIER AT KMSN VERSUS THE EASTERN
SITES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
KEPT SOME FROST IN THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...AS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME CLEARING.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL KEEP THINGS MILDER ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.
PER RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS...KEPT SOME LOW POPS
IN SOUTHEAST FOR THE MORNING HOURS. WOULD NOT EXPECT MORE THAN A
BRIEF SHOWERS OR A FEW SPRINKLES. IT SHOULD BE DRY THEN IN THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY...A BIT MILDER THAN YESTERDAY
THOUGH.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
PERSISTENT CANADIAN UPPER LOW NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE WITH THE NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW. ONE LAST SHORTWAVE OF
NOTE PROGGD TO SWEEP THOUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE ALL
SHOWING DRY SOLUTIONS AND WILL GO THAT ROUTE AS WELL. BUFKIT SHOWS
VERY SHALLOW INSTABILITY/LIMITED CAPE. ALONG WITH THIS IS THE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SO WILL GO WITH
MORE CLOUD COVER BUT KEEP THE DRY LOOK. MID DAY TROUGH PASSAGE
THOUGH BETTER 925/850 COLD ADVECTION HOLDS OFF UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING LESS CYCLONIC AS CANADIAN VORTEX STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD
WITH TIME. SO WHILE COLD ADVECTION IS STRONGEST TUESDAY NIGHT
THERE IS MODIFICATION IN THE THERMAL PATTERN WEDNESDAY AS THE
1000-500 MILLIBAR HEIGHTS MODIFY SOMEWHAT WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
EASING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WEAK UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX WITH LOW PRESSURE
STAYING WELL SOUTH. COMBO OF PROXIMITY OF NRN FRINGE OF
ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED PRECIP WITH THE LOW AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER FEATURES...WILL MAINTAIN THE SMALL POPS THIS PERIOD...MAINLY
IN THE SW CWA WED NGT AND JUST THE FAR SOUTH ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
DECENT CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
DOMINATING THIS PERIOD. COLD NIGHTS EXPECTED WITH THESE
CONDITIONS. SOME FROST POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT. LOOKS A BIT BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHTER WIND REGIME
OFF THE DECK. PER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY GRID INCLUSION BUT RETAIN GOING WORDING IN THE HWO.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE HIGH WILL BE WELL EAST. UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF AN ADVANCING TROUGH. SOME TIMING DETAILS YET TO WORK OUT THOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED TO HELP GENERATE SOME RAIN
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. BEST DYNAMICS PROGGD TO ARRIVE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND UPPER DCVA ARRIVE.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...WITH A LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT.
MARINE...WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THOUGH...AND THE OFFSHORE NATURE OF THE WINDS WILL KEEP THE WAVES ON
THE LOWER END.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REM
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV