Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/06/14


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
150 PM PDT SAT OCT 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE AREA. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:39 PM PDT SATURDAY... FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON HOW RAPIDLY THE COOL DOWN OCCURS. TODAY THE HRRR MODEL EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED THE DELAYED SEA BREEZE ONSET WELL AND THIS ALLOWED FOR COASTAL TEMPS IN THE PENINSULA TO QUICKLY WARM UP INTO THE 80S BUT THEY HAVE SINCE COOLED OFF AS THE SEA BREEZE HAS ARRIVED AS EXPECTED. SO FOR SOME AREAS ITS CURRENTLY 20+ DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...BUT AT OTHERS ITS VERY SIMILAR OR EVEN A LITTLE WARMER. OUR UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A DEEP AND STRONG EAST COAST TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY AND STEADILY WEAKEN OVER OUR AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR MORE ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP AND THE EXPECTED COOLING TREND TO TAKE PLACE. READINGS WILL FALL BACK TO CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE COAST COOLING MOST AT FIRST BUT AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS THE COOLING TREND WILL BE EXPERIENCED EVEN AT THE HOTTER INTERIOR LOCALES. WILL MONITOR THE PATH OF HURRICANE SIMON WHICH IS CURRENTLY A MAJOR HURRICANE AND 5 DAY TRACK BRINGS IT INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE LONGER TERM PATTERN SUGGESTS THERE WILL NOT BE A MECHANISM TO TRANSPORT THIS STORM OR ITS REMNANT MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE 7 DAY PERIOD AS THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WEST. A TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT OVER THE SOUTHWEST BY NEXT WEEKEND...AS A STRONGER RIDGE MOVES IN OFF THE PACIFIC. WILL MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A STRONGER OFFSHORE EVENT DEVELOPING AGAIN BY COLUMBUS DAY. && .AVIATION...AS OF 10:15 AM PDT SATURDAY...VFR AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE. VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WINDS 10-15 KT. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS. && .CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY (10/4) ALONG WITH THE DATE(S) IT OCCURRED. SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA .LOCATION.................10/4... KENTFIELD................99/1987/1933 SAN RAFAEL..............100/1980 NAPA....................100/1987 SAN FRANCISCO...........100/1987 SFO AIRPORT..............95/1987 OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN).......92/1987/1985 OAKLAND AIRPORT..........90/1953 RICHMOND.................99/1987 LIVERMORE...............106/1980 MOFFETT FIELD............94/1987 SAN JOSE.................96/1987 GILROY..................103/1980 MONTEREY BAY AREA .LOCATION.................10/4... MONTEREY.................94/1953 SANTA CRUZ..............101/1987 SALINAS..................98/1987 SALINAS AIRPORT.........100/1987 KING CITY...............106/1933 && .MARINE...AS OF 01:39 PM PDT SATURDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TNGT...HEAT ADVISORY...HEAT ADVISORY...MONTEREY BAY AREA...URBAN AREAS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND SANTA CLARA VALLEY UNTIL 9 PM. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS CLIMATE: BELL VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1016 AM PDT SAT OCT 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS...DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST. A GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS AND THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:19 AM PDT SATURDAY... MONITORING CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND TRENDS FOR MINOR TWEAKS IN THE HOT WEATHER FORECAST TODAY. NOTED BUOYS REPORTING NW WINDS CURRENTLY...WITH OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE LAND. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ALREADY IN JEOPARDY ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF NORTH BAY AND PENINSULA...WITH LOW 70S ALREADY NEAR OCEAN BEACH AND NE WINDS. THIS WILL FURTHER COMPLICATE THE TIMING OF THE COOLING SEA BREEZE PUSH IN AND AROUND SF. HAVE FOR NOW RAISED TEMPERATURES BY A FEW (2-4) DEGREES. NOTED THAT UPDATED HRRR WINDS FOR THE SF AREA SHOW OFFSHORE DIRECTION PERSISTING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SUGGESTS WARMER READINGS ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE DELAYED ONSET OF ONSHORE FLOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THIS MORNING AS TO HOW RAPIDLY THE READINGS RISE UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH DRY AIR AND AN OFFSHORE WIND. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES AS 24 HOUR CHANGE SHOWS MOST AREAS NEAR YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. && .PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:15 AM PDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE STATE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE AND WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES...HAVE MADE CHANGES TO THE HEAT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE COASTAL LOCATIONS OF THE MONTEREY BAY. THIS IS BETTING ON A LATE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA-BREEZE AND TEMPERATURES WARMING QUICKLY DURING THE LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT REACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA IF THE SEA-BREEZE DOES DEVELOP EARLY ENOUGH. OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY EXCEED THE 90 DEGREE MARK AGAIN IN MANY LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO. THUS...HAVE KEPT THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE URBAN AREAS OF THE BAY AREA DOWN THROUGH THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...HAVE DROPPED THE ADVISORY GIVEN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND THE FACT THAT THESE AREAS ARE MORE PRONE TO THE HEAT. BY SUNDAY...JUST ABOUT ALL COASTAL LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. WITH ONSHORE FLOW BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED BY MIDWEEK...A WEAK MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY RETURN AND BRING OVERNIGHT/MORNING COASTAL CLOUDS BACK TO THE REGION. THIS TOO WILL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS. ALBEIT WEAKER...THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY INLAND. LATE IN THE WEEK A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DISRUPT THE RIDGE ALOFT...CAUSING IT TO WEAKEN FURTHER. THIS TOO WILL COOL THE AIR MASS ALOFT AND ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED STORM TRACK STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. && .AVIATION...AS OF 10:15 AM PDT SATURDAY...VFR AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE. VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WINDS 10-15 KT. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS. && .CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY (10/4) ALONG WITH THE DATE(S) IT OCCURRED. SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA .LOCATION.................10/4... KENTFIELD................99/1987/1933 SAN RAFAEL..............100/1980 NAPA....................100/1987 SAN FRANCISCO...........100/1987 SFO AIRPORT..............95/1987 OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN).......92/1987/1985 OAKLAND AIRPORT..........90/1953 RICHMOND.................99/1987 LIVERMORE...............106/1980 MOFFETT FIELD............94/1987 SAN JOSE.................96/1987 GILROY..................103/1980 MONTEREY BAY AREA .LOCATION.................10/4... MONTEREY.................94/1953 SANTA CRUZ..............101/1987 SALINAS..................98/1987 SALINAS AIRPORT.........100/1987 KING CITY...............106/1933 && .MARINE...AS OF 09:19 AM PDT SATURDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDAY...HEAT ADVISORY...MONTEREY BAY AREA...URBAN AREAS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND SANTA CLARA VALLEY. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS CLIMATE: BELL VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
929 AM PDT SAT OCT 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS...DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST. A GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS AND THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:19 AM PDT SATURDAY... MONITORING CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND TRENDS FOR MINOR TWEAKS IN THE HOT WEATHER FORECAST TODAY. NOTED BUOYS REPORTING NW WINDS CURRENTLY...WITH OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE LAND. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ALREADY IN JEOPARDY ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF NORTH BAY AND PENINSULA...WITH LOW 70S ALREADY NEAR OCEAN BEACH AND NE WINDS. THIS WILL FURTHER COMPLICATE THE TIMING OF THE COOLING SEA BREEZE PUSH IN AND AROUND SF. HAVE FOR NOW RAISED TEMPERATURES BY A FEW (2-4) DEGREES. NOTED THAT UPDATED HRRR WINDS FOR THE SF AREA SHOW OFFSHORE DIRECTION PERSISTING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SUGGESTS WARMER READINGS ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE DELAYED ONSET OF ONSHORE FLOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THIS MORNING AS TO HOW RAPIDLY THE READINGS RISE UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH DRY AIR AND AN OFFSHORE WIND. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES AS 24 HOUR CHANGE SHOWS MOST AREAS NEAR YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. && .PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:15 AM PDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE STATE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE AND WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES...HAVE MADE CHANGES TO THE HEAT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE COASTAL LOCATIONS OF THE MONTEREY BAY. THIS IS BETTING ON A LATE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA-BREEZE AND TEMPERATURES WARMING QUICKLY DURING THE LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT REACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA IF THE SEA-BREEZE DOES DEVELOP EARLY ENOUGH. OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY EXCEED THE 90 DEGREE MARK AGAIN IN MANY LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO. THUS...HAVE KEPT THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE URBAN AREAS OF THE BAY AREA DOWN THROUGH THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...HAVE DROPPED THE ADVISORY GIVEN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND THE FACT THAT THESE AREAS ARE MORE PRONE TO THE HEAT. BY SUNDAY...JUST ABOUT ALL COASTAL LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. WITH ONSHORE FLOW BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED BY MIDWEEK...A WEAK MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY RETURN AND BRING OVERNIGHT/MORNING COASTAL CLOUDS BACK TO THE REGION. THIS TOO WILL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS. ALBEIT WEAKER...THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY INLAND. LATE IN THE WEEK A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DISRUPT THE RIDGE ALOFT...CAUSING IT TO WEAKEN FURTHER. THIS TOO WILL COOL THE AIR MASS ALOFT AND ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED STORM TRACK STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. && .AVIATION...AS OF 04:15 AM PDT SATURDAY...VFR AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE. VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS. && .CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY (10/4) ALONG WITH THE DATE(S) IT OCCURRED. SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA .LOCATION.................10/4... KENTFIELD................99/1987/1933 SAN RAFAEL..............100/1980 NAPA....................100/1987 SAN FRANCISCO...........100/1987 SFO AIRPORT..............95/1987 OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN).......92/1987/1985 OAKLAND AIRPORT..........90/1953 RICHMOND.................99/1987 LIVERMORE...............106/1980 MOFFETT FIELD............94/1987 SAN JOSE.................96/1987 GILROY..................103/1980 MONTEREY BAY AREA .LOCATION.................10/4... MONTEREY.................94/1953 SANTA CRUZ..............101/1987 SALINAS..................98/1987 SALINAS AIRPORT.........100/1987 KING CITY...............106/1933 && .MARINE...AS OF 09:19 AM PDT SATURDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDAY...HEAT ADVISORY...MONTEREY BAY AREA...URBAN AREAS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND SANTA CLARA VALLEY. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON AVIATION/MARINE: AC CLIMATE: BELL VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
304 PM MDT SAT OCT 4 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SAT OCT 4 2014 NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT THIS AFTERNOON. A BIT OF CLOUDINESS OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE AND SOME LEE WAVES DOWNWIND OF PARTS OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ARE ABOUT IT FOR MOISTURE. GUSTY WINDS UP HIGH...IN THE FOOTHILLS AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS ARE ALSO OCCURRING. THIS IS PRETTY MUCH THE STORY FOR SUNDAY AS WELL. SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY HOLDS ON TO THE WAVE CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AND HAVE ATTEMPTED TO ADD THIS TO THE SKY GRIDS. SEVERAL OF THE MODELS ARE WANTING TO PAINT SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL ADD SOME LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND MATCH UP WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES ALTHOUGH THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH QG SUPPORT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SAT OCT 4 2014 ...BEAUTIFUL FALL WEATHER WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERS RETURNING LATE NEXT WEEK... MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE WILL CREEP IN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RISE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THAT MOISTURE TRANSITION TO THE EAST LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THESE TWO DAYS BEFORE TEMPS START DECREASING THURSDAY. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE NOT YET IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INTERACTION OF BOTH THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SIMON TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. EITHER SOLUTION WILL BRING ADDED MOISTURE TO THE REGION INCREASING CHANCES OF COOLER TEMPS WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT POPS AND WEATHER FOR THIS PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SAT OCT 4 2014 WINDS DID SWING AROUND TO EASTERLY DIRECTIONS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE EARLIER RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP WERE SHOWING AND HAVE REMAINED ON THE LIGHT SIDE...ALSO AS FORECAST BY THOSE MODELS. KAPA HAS BEEN THE EXCEPTION WHERE A BIT STRONGER NORTHERLIES HAVE OCCURRED. THESE MODELS STILL WANT TO BRING SOME LIGHT WESTERLIES INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME HINT OF THAT SHOWING UP IN SURFACE DATA AT THIS TIME BUT TOUGH TO TELL IF IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER. BRIEF GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS MAY OCCUR. STILL ANTICIPATING DRAINAGE PATTERNS TO SET UP BY MIDNIGHT. SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THOSE OBSERVED SATURDAY. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ET LONG TERM...BOWEN AVIATION...ET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
644 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WILL COME TO AND END TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT... DRIER AND COOLER AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AFTER A COOL MONDAY MORNING MILDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE TUE INTO WED. MORE SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED FRI AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS E FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... 645 PM UPDATE... *** BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING *** BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH LIFTED N FROM LONG ISLAND HAS FRAGMENTED A BIT BUT WAS STILL PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE INCH PER HOUR LOCALLY. THIS WILL SHIFT INTO N CENTRAL MA AND S NH THIS EVENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. OTHERWISE NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI BEFORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK SURFACE LOW CROSS REGION EARLY TONIGHT. IT SHOULD REACH JAFFREY...WORCESTER AND PROVIDENCE BY 10 PM AND MANCHESTER... BOSTON AND CAPE COD CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT /A LITTLE BEHIND BACK EDGE OF RAIN ON RADAR/. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT MEANS PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE...BUT DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY WIN BATTLE OVERNIGHT AS SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR. W/NW WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20-25 MPH BEFORE DAYBREAK. PREVIOUS FORECAST HANDLES ALL OF THIS WELL SO ONLY MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP TO MATCH RADAR TRENDS. HRRR DOING A GOOD JOB AND WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SUNDAY... TYPICAL EARLY OCTOBER WEATHER WITH TEMPS IN THE U50S AND L60S ALONG WITH A BRISK WNW WIND UP TO 20-25 MPH...THEN DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLUMN IS FAIRLY DRY AND CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT WELL TO THE WEST. THUS LAPSE RATES MODEST AT BEST SO NOT MUCH DIURNAL CU/SCU EXPECTED. HENCE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. SUN NIGHT... CHILLY NIGHT AND FOLLOWED THE COLDER MOS GUIDANCE INSTEAD OF A MODEL BLEND. MAY NEED FROST ADVISORIES FOR WESTERN/NW MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AS SURFACE HIGH SLIPS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WITH PGRAD RELAXING. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * MILD MON AND TUE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT * SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED * MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI DETAILS... CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH MOST OF EXTENDED PERIOD...BEFORE SHIFTING N OF MARITIMES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS KEEPS TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHEAST MUCH OF WEEK BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY WEEKEND. MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE HEADS OFFSHORE RESULTING IN MILDER S/SW FLOW ACROSS REGION. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MIXING TO NEAR 850 MB SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO 60S AWAY FROM S COAST. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM GREAT LAKES TUE AND CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED MORNING. BROAD S/SW FLOW IN PLACE AHEAD OF FRONT WILL BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED...ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS TUE...HIGHS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO 60S AND LOWER 70S GIVEN TEMPERATURES ALOFT. AIRMASS BEHIND FRONT IS NOT MUCH COOLER AND WITH SUNSHINE/W FLOW HIGHS WED SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO REACH 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS MOST OF AREA. THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WITH DIMINISHING W FLOW. SHOULD STILL BE RATHER MILD WITH HIGHS IN 60S. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER OH VALLEY HEADS E AND SHOULD CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI NIGHT BEFORE HEADING OFFSHORE EARLY SAT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO MUCH OF REGION...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS FOCUSED CLOSER TO S COAST FRI AND FRI NIGHT. HOWEVER MODELS/ENSEMBLES HINT AT DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG FRONT S OF NEW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF PERIOD. MONDAY...INCREASING S WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE NEAR SHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. SEAS MAY REACH 5 FT ON OPEN S COASTAL WATERS BY EVENING. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT MAINLY NEAR S COAST. TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAINTAINS S/SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT AND 5-6 FT SEAS ON OPEN S COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE IN DAY AND AT NIGHT. WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS DURING DAY WITH WIND SHIFT TO SW AND THEN W...POSSIBLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30KT DURING AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILD FURTHER ON OPEN WATERS TO AS HIGH AS 7 FT. THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS.ENGLAND SAT MORNING...WHICH WILL PROBABLY DELAY CLEARING S OF MASS PIKE UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON OR EVENING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS SAT AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING MORE FALL- LIKE AIRMASS TO REGION. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE SUN/SUN NIGHT. IFR/LIFR PERSIST EARLY TONIGHT IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER... MAINLY FROM SW NH INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MA AND RI. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR BEHIND BACK EDGE OF SHOWERS WHERE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED...AND FURTHER IMPROVE TO VFR A FEW HOURS LATER. TIMING BRINGS BACK EDGE TO ORH/PVD AROUND 00Z...MHT/BOS/HYA CLOSER TO 03-04Z. BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEST WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR LIKELY ALONG WITH DRY RUNWAYS. WEST WINDS MAY GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING THE MORNING THEN DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET. KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MARGINAL LLWS 22Z-02Z WITH WINDS AT 2KFT 16040KT. KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MARGINAL LLWS TIL 21Z WITH WINDS AT 2 KFT 15040KT. OUTLOOK...MON THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MONDAY...VFR. S WINDS GUSTING TO 25KT. PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN FOG LATE MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY...S WINDS GUSTING TO 25KT. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SHOWERS/ ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS INTERIOR LATE IN DAY...AND ACROSS MOST OF AREA TUE NIGHT. WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...MAINLY EARLY. VFR WITH CLEARING BY AFTERNOON AND W WINDS GUSTING TO 25KT. THURSDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. TONIGHT... LEFTOVER EAST SWELLS EASTERN MA WATERS BUT DEVELOPING SE WIND WAVES ALL WATERS. SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY RAIN THIS EVENING THEN MOVING WELL OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED TSTM SOUTHERN WATERS. SE WINDS BECOME WNW WITH THE WIND SHIFT AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. VSBY IMPROVES WITH THE WIND SHIFT TOO. SUNDAY... WNW WINDS UP TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING DIMINISHES DURING THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. SUN NIGHT... LIGHT WINDS/GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF PERIOD. MONDAY...INCREASING S WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE NEAR SHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. SEAS MAY REACH 5 FT ON OPEN S COASTAL WATERS BY EVENING. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT MAINLY NEAR S COAST. TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAINTAINS S/SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT AND 5-6 FT SEAS ON OPEN S COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE IN DAY AND AT NIGHT. WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS DURING DAY WITH WIND SHIFT TO SW AND THEN W...POSSIBLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30KT DURING AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILD FURTHER ON OPEN WATERS TO AS HIGH AS 7 FT. THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237- 251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/JWD NEAR TERM...NOCERA/JWD SHORT TERM...NOCERA LONG TERM...JWD AVIATION...NOCERA/JWD MARINE...NOCERA/JWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
124 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH THE SHOWERS TAPERING OFF DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IS ON ITS WAY. BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIOINS AND TRENDS...CURRNET FORECAST ON TRACK THROUGH SUNRISE. RADAR SHOWING RAIN MOVING IN AND TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING TOWARD CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS. JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNRISE. IT WILL BE MILD OVERNIGHT A SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE PERSISTS AND CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVING THERE COULD BE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL LIKELY PREVENT THESE GUSTS FROM MIXING TO THE VALLEY FLOOR OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... THE TROUGH AND OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR WESTERN AREAS BY MIDDAY...REACHING THE HUDSON VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND OUR EASTERN ZONES BY THE EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY STAY JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION...BUT MIGHT SNEAK NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHOWALTER INDEX (WHICH IS IN THE INSTABILITY BETWEEN H850 AND THE H500 LEVEL) LOOKS TO APPROACH ZERO IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS MEANS THIS AREA COULD BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ALOFT SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA ONLY. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES FORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND TAP INTO THE ROBUST WIND FIELD TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 40-50 MPH. SO...WE WILL ALSO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. PWATS LOOK TO REACH 1.5 INCHES EARLY ON SATURDAY...MAINLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN (EVEN IF THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT MATERIALIZE). FOR THE MOST PART...THIS WILL BE A BENEFICIAL RAINFALL SINCE MANY AREAS HAVE NOT HAD A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SINCE SEPTEMBER 16TH. THE SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY EXIT OUR WESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABLY NOT CLEAR THE HUDSON VALLEY AND ESPECIALLY AREAS EAST UNTIL AROUND DARK. WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD TO THE 60S...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH. THE WIND ON SATURDAY WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE VALLEYS...5-15 MPH. AN INVERSION LOOKS TO HOLD AND SHOULD PREVENT GUSTS MUCH STRONGER THAN THAT. HOWEVER...DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A 45 LOW LEVEL KT JET MOVES THROUGH...THE WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 45 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS. WE DID NOT PUT UP ANY WIND ADVISORIES SINCE IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL FALL JUST SHORT OF THE WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD. HOWEVER WE WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE IN THE H.W.O. SINCE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE ONE MIGHT BE NEEDED BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL JET ACTUALLY LOOKS TO MOVE ON THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY. AFTER A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY EAST EARLY SATURDAY EVENING... CLEARING WILL FOLLOW LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AS A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WORKS IN FROM THE WSW. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM AROUND +12C EARLY SATURDAY...TO ABOUT 0C BY SUNDAY MORNING! THEO ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE CLEARING WILL BE THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COMBINATION OF AN UPSLOPE FLOW AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS GOING. IT MIGHT EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE GRAUPEL OR EVEN THE SEASON/S FIRST FLURRIES. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA IT WILL JUST TURN SEASONABLY CHILLY. LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 40 IN THE VALLEYS...30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...CLOSE TO FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE WEST OR SOUTHEAST 5-15 MPH...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ADIRONDACKS...SUNDAY SHOULD A DRY DAY STARTING OUT WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT THOSE PERSISTENT CLOUDS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WITH THE COOL AIR ALOFT...EXCEPT SCATTERED TO BROKEN INSTABILITY CLOUDS TO FORM...MORE SO OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW THESE COULD REAP A SPRINKLE BUT THAT WOULD BE ABOUT IT. THERE COULD BE "MEASURABLE" SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS WITH PERHAPS SOME EARLY MORNING GRAUPEL OR WET SNOW FLAKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-15 MPH. SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS JUST TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND QUITE CHILLY. MANY AREAS TO NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY LOOK TO HAVE POTENTIAL FROST AND OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES. EVEN FROM ALBANY AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST...SOME SPOTTY FROST IS POSSIBLE WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUMP SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR OUR WAY. IT WILL TURN RATHER BREEZY AND THE WARMUP WILL NOT BE ALL THE ROBUST WITH HIGHS ONLY 60-65 IN THE VALLEYS...55-60 HIGHER TERRAIN. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN CENTRAL CANADA WILL STARTING POOLING MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY...INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS BRINGING A STRAY SHOWER TO THE ADIRONDACKS BEFORE DAY/S END. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... IT STILL APPEARS OUR WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH SETTING UP TO OUR WEST...AT LEAST DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL RELAX BY LATE NEXT WEEK...A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL EXIST NEAR OUR REGION KEEPING THE WEATHER POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. A SOUTHWESTERLY INCREASINGLY MOIST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF MORE SHOWERS. ANOTHER WEAKER OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT KEEPING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BUT SINCE WE WILL REMAIN IN A CYCLONIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. BY FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPRAWLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH. WARMER AIR WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE BACK FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BUT AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. AT THIS POINT...THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT IS NOT CERTAIN SO FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH IT THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH IS STRONG...WE COULD SQUEAK BY THE DAY FRIDAY WITH MILD DRY CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM LOWER 60S TO AROUND 70 TUESDAY...UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHOWERS HAVE REACHED THE WESTERN REACHES OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA AND CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WELL AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDING BOUNDARY. THE HRRR 3-KM AND HIRESWRF MESOSCALE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INCREASING THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY AS IT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT AND BRINGING THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WORKS INTO THE AREA. HAVE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM BOTH WEST AND EAST. WIDESPREAD MVFR WILL DEVELOP WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR AS CEILINGS LOWER. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING BY AROUND 09Z AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU AND A COUPLE HOURS LATER AT KPSF. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH A PERIOD OF VERY SHOWERS AS THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY IMPROVEMENT TO ONLY MVFR IS EXPECTED BY 00Z/SUNDAY. SOUTHEAST-EAST WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING OCCLUDED BOUNDARY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WITH ITS PASSAGE. OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA IN THE EVNG. SUN-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA TUE-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... FINALLY...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL GET A SOAKING RAIN ON SATURDAY WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTING A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL OR MORE. WE ASSIGNED A "WET FLAG" TO ALL OUR NFDRS FORECAST ON SATURDAY FOR THIS VERY REASON. A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. DRIER COOLER WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS A LARGE TROUGH SETS UP TO OUR WEST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT LESS THAN 15 MPH...BUT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS COULD SEE GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THE SOUTH WINDS 5-15 MPH WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN POSSIBLY REACHING UP BRIEFLY UP TO 45 MPH. SUNDAY...THE WIND WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST GENERALLY 5-15 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE. && .HYDROLOGY... DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A LINE OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CONTAINING MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF ALBANY. PROJECTED RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH...HIGHEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MIGHT BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM. OVERALL THIS WILL BE AN EXTREMELY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL SINCE IT IS HAS BEEN OVER TWO WEEKS SINCE MUCH OF THE REGION HAS SEEN A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. SINCE IT HAS BEEN SO DRY OF LATE...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE NO RESPONSE TO WATERSHEDS. RAINFALL RATES MIGHT BRIEFLY BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND AREAS WHERE DRAINS GET CLOGGED. EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...THE RAIN WILL BE OVER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY TUESDAY. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS SHORT TERM...HWJIV LONG TERM...HWJIV AVIATION...JPV FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THEN GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A 13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND EXTENDING DOWN ACROSS CHESAPEAKE BAY. MEANWHILE, A POTENT UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. A SATELLITE LOOP OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LARGE- SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFYING AND ACQUIRING A NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE MS VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES REGION AS A VORT MAX DIGS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. OVERALL, NOT TOO MANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND SOME AREAS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL PROGRESSING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WE DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS USING THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO CAPTURE THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE, MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK FOR TODAY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND THE EXPECTED INFLOW OF COOLER/DRIER AIR LATER TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHERWISE, SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING. USING THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE, THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP WILL REACH THE WESTERN ZONES OF THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, ENDING NEAR PHILLY AROUND LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE NJ SHORE/PASSAIC RIVER DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN ONE- HALF INCH. HOWEVER, HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW RAIN BAND TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST. A BRIEF HEAVY SHOWER OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. THE POST-FRONTAL CAA SHOULD OFFSET DAYTIME HEATING. ACCORDINGLY, TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO CURRENT READINGS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL LATE IN THE DAY WHEN MUCH COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT, AND WITH A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH, THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL STILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 999 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT IN NEW ENGLAND AND 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG OVER OUR REGION. SIGNIFICANT CAA WILL ALLOW NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER TO PREVENT DECOUPLING AND FOR THE WESTERLY WIND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE COLD AIR STRATOCU OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE EVENING UNTIL MUCH DRIER AIR REACHES THE AREA AND ERODES THE LINGERING CLOUDS. THE 0C 850 MB TEMPS MAKES ITS TRIUMPHANT RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST NJ AND NORTHEAST PA. THESE AIR TEMPS WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST FORMATION BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND WARM GROUND TEMPS WILL MAKE THE SETUP FOR FROST UNFAVORABLE. MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA INCLUDING ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: WE WILL BE IN A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT DRY. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO START IN THIS PERIOD WILL COMPLETE AN IMPRESSIVE PLUMMET AND THIS WILL REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH THE COOLEST DAY IN A WHILE. MANY LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 FOR HIGHS. OVERALL THE 10/04 00Z GFS LOOKS WAY TO COOL AS IT EXTENDS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO OUR REGION. ON THE OTHER HAND THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS LOOK TO WARM. THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WENT WARMER WITH TWO THIRDS EMPHASIS PLACED ON THE MET AND ECMWF. TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH BOTH SURFACE AND SOIL TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION EVEN WITH CALM WINDS ATTM FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY (35-40)(40`S ELSEWHERE).IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT IF THE FORECAST TRENDS COOLER THEN THE FROST THREAT WOULD INCREASE. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: WE WILL SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNTIED STATES. THE RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE MAV/MET AND 10/04 00Z GFS LOOK TO COOL GIVEN MODELED 925 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 11C WHICH WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOW 70`S FOR PHL SE AND COOLER NW. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 20 MPH TO BE TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE MONDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE DECAYING AS IT TRIES TO FIGHT OFF THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE.HOWEVER, INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE THREAT FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL LIKELY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIGHTER TEMPERATURES SPREAD AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE MAV/MET IN THIS PERIOD. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT : THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECT ANOTHER SEASONAL DAY. LOWS A BIT WARMER GIVEN MORNING CLOUDS. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ON THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS LIKELY TO KEEP A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES FOR MOST OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL FINALLY KICK OUT IN THIS PERIOD, RESULTING IN A WARMER MORE ZONAL PATTERN. HOWEVER ONE MORE COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. QUITE A TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF 10/04 00Z RUNS. RIGHT NOW PREFER THE 00Z ECMWF OVERALL BUT DID NOT GO AS WARM GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME SCT TO BKN CIGS WITH BASES AROUND 4000 TO 5000FT WILL REMAIN THROUGH LATE-DAY, BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND SKIES CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS, BEFORE DIMINISHING TO MOSTLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR LATE EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED MAINLY CLEAR. WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 8 TO 12 KNOT RANGE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CAUSE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 10-15 KNOTS AT TIMES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY: VFR. WEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 10 KNOTS. && .MARINE... SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS THE DELAWARE BAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE BEEN GUSTING 20-25 KT SO FAR WHILE SEAS JUST OFFSHORE ARE 5-6 FT. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER DE BAY AND EARLY THIS AFTN IN THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. THESE WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KT, ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING ONCE COLDER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES. THE WARMER WATER TEMPS WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING: WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING CLOSER TO SCA CRITERIA. MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOME INTERMITTENT 25 KNOT WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTH WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CAMBRIDED ENDED UP CRESTING AROUND 4.1 FEET, SO MODERATE FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED AND THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING WAS DOWNGRADED TO AN ADVISORY. THE ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN BAY REMAINS AS DEPARTURES FOR TOLCHESTER CONTINUES TO DECREASE AND IT LOOKS TO GET CLOSE TO THE MINOR FLOOD LEVEL. IF THEY END UP GOING BACK UP, WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE WARNING BACK NORTHWARD. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. ALONG THE COAST, THE NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS SHOULD BE OFFSHORE IN A POST- FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, SO TOTAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008- 012. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ015-019-020. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GAINES NEAR TERM...KLEIN/KLINE SHORT TERM...KLEIN LONG TERM...GAINES AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN/KLINE MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ROBERTSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1241 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THEN GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A 13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND EXTENDING DOWN ACROSS CHESAPEAKE BAY. MEANWHILE, A POTENT UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. A SATELLITE LOOP OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LARGE- SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFYING AND ACQUIRING A NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE MS VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES REGION AS A VORT MAX DIGS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. OVERALL, NOT TOO MANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND SOME AREAS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL PROGRESSING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WE DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS USING THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO CAPTURE THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE, MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK FOR TODAY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND THE EXPECTED INFLOW OF COOLER/DRIER AIR LATER TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHERWISE, SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING. USING THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE, THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP WILL REACH THE WESTERN ZONES OF THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, ENDING NEAR PHILLY AROUND LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE NJ SHORE/PASSAIC RIVER DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN ONE- HALF INCH. HOWEVER, HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW RAIN BAND TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST. A BRIEF HEAVY SHOWER OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. THE POST-FRONTAL CAA SHOULD OFFSET DAYTIME HEATING. ACCORDINGLY, TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO CURRENT READINGS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL LATE IN THE DAY WHEN MUCH COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT, AND WITH A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH, THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL STILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 999 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT IN NEW ENGLAND AND 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG OVER OUR REGION. SIGNIFICANT CAA WILL ALLOW NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER TO PREVENT DECOUPLING AND FOR THE WESTERLY WIND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE COLD AIR STRATOCU OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE EVENING UNTIL MUCH DRIER AIR REACHES THE AREA AND ERODES THE LINGERING CLOUDS. THE 0C 850 MB TEMPS MAKES ITS TRIUMPHANT RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST NJ AND NORTHEAST PA. THESE AIR TEMPS WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST FORMATION BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND WARM GROUND TEMPS WILL MAKE THE SETUP FOR FROST UNFAVORABLE. MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA INCLUDING ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: WE WILL BE IN A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT DRY. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO START IN THIS PERIOD WILL COMPLETE AN IMPRESSIVE PLUMMET AND THIS WILL REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH THE COOLEST DAY IN A WHILE. MANY LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 FOR HIGHS. OVERALL THE 10/04 00Z GFS LOOKS WAY TO COOL AS IT EXTENDS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO OUR REGION. ON THE OTHER HAND THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS LOOK TO WARM. THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WENT WARMER WITH TWO THIRDS EMPHASIS PLACED ON THE MET AND ECMWF. TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH BOTH SURFACE AND SOIL TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION EVEN WITH CALM WINDS ATTM FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY (35-40)(40`S ELSEWHERE).IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT IF THE FORECAST TRENDS COOLER THEN THE FROST THREAT WOULD INCREASE. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: WE WILL SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNTIED STATES. THE RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE MAV/MET AND 10/04 00Z GFS LOOK TO COOL GIVEN MODELED 925 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 11C WHICH WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOW 70`S FOR PHL SE AND COOLER NW. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 20 MPH TO BE TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE MONDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE DECAYING AS IT TRIES TO FIGHT OFF THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE.HOWEVER, INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE THREAT FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL LIKELY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIGHTER TEMPERATURES SPREAD AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE MAV/MET IN THIS PERIOD. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT : THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECT ANOTHER SEASONAL DAY. LOWS A BIT WARMER GIVEN MORNING CLOUDS. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ON THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS LIKELY TO KEEP A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES FOR MOST OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL FINALLY KICK OUT IN THIS PERIOD, RESULTING IN A WARMER MORE ZONAL PATTERN. HOWEVER ONE MORE COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. QUITE A TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF 10/04 00Z RUNS. RIGHT NOW PREFER THE 00Z ECMWF OVERALL BUT DID NOT GO AS WARM GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS, ALONG WITH SHOWERS, WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU 13-15Z FOR THE PHILLY TERMINALS AND 15-17Z FOR ACY/MIV. THE FRONT WILL BE MARKED BY A WIND SHIFT FROM S-SE TO W, AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST 20-25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS STRONG CAA ARRIVES. W-NW WINDS WILL RELAX TO BELOW 10 KT AFTER SUNSET. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CAUSE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 10-15 KNOTS AT TIMES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY: VFR. WEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 10 KNOTS. && .MARINE... SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS THE DELAWARE BAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE BEEN GUSTING 20-25 KT SO FAR WHILE SEAS JUST OFFSHORE ARE 5-6 FT. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER DE BAY AND EARLY THIS AFTN IN THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. THESE WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KT, ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING ONCE COLDER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES. THE WARMER WATER TEMPS WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING: WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING CLOSER TO SCA CRITERIA. MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOME INTERMITTENT 25 KNOT WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTH WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CAMBRIDED ENDED UP CRESTING AROUND 4.1 FEET, SO MODERATE FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED AND THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING WAS DOWNGRADED TO AN ADVISORY. THE ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN BAY REMAINS AS DEPARTURES FOR TOLCHESTER CONTINUES TO DECREASE AND IT LOOKS TO GET CLOSE TO THE MINOR FLOOD LEVEL. IF THEY END UP GOING BACK UP, WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE WARNING BACK NORTHWARD. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. ALONG THE COAST, THE NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS SHOULD BE OFFSHORE IN A POST- FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, SO TOTAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008- 012. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ015-019-020. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GAINES NEAR TERM...KLEIN/KLINE SHORT TERM...KLEIN LONG TERM...GAINES AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN/KLINE MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1045 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THEN GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A 13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND EXTENDING DOWN ACROSS CHESAPEAKE BAY. MEANWHILE, A POTENT UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. A SATELLITE LOOP OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LARGE- SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFYING AND ACQUIRING A NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE MS VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES REGION AS A VORT MAX DIGS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. OVERALL, NOT TOO MANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND SOME AREAS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL PROGRESSING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WE DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS USING THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO CAPTURE THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE, MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK FOR TODAY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND THE EXPECTED INFLOW OF COOLER/DRIER AIR LATER TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHERWISE, SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING. USING THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE, THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP WILL REACH THE WESTERN ZONES OF THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, ENDING NEAR PHILLY AROUND LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE NJ SHORE/PASSAIC RIVER DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN ONE- HALF INCH. HOWEVER, HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW RAIN BAND TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST. A BRIEF HEAVY SHOWER OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. THE POST-FRONTAL CAA SHOULD OFFSET DAYTIME HEATING. ACCORDINGLY, TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO CURRENT READINGS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL LATE IN THE DAY WHEN MUCH COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT, AND WITH A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH, THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL STILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 999 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT IN NEW ENGLAND AND 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG OVER OUR REGION. SIGNIFICANT CAA WILL ALLOW NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER TO PREVENT DECOUPLING AND FOR THE WESTERLY WIND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE COLD AIR STRATOCU OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE EVENING UNTIL MUCH DRIER AIR REACHES THE AREA AND ERODES THE LINGERING CLOUDS. THE 0C 850 MB TEMPS MAKES ITS TRIUMPHANT RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST NJ AND NORTHEAST PA. THESE AIR TEMPS WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST FORMATION BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND WARM GROUND TEMPS WILL MAKE THE SETUP FOR FROST UNFAVORABLE. MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA INCLUDING ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: WE WILL BE IN A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT DRY. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO START IN THIS PERIOD WILL COMPLETE AN IMPRESSIVE PLUMMET AND THIS WILL REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH THE COOLEST DAY IN A WHILE. MANY LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 FOR HIGHS. OVERALL THE 10/04 00Z GFS LOOKS WAY TO COOL AS IT EXTENDS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO OUR REGION. ON THE OTHER HAND THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS LOOK TO WARM. THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WENT WARMER WITH TWO THIRDS EMPHASIS PLACED ON THE MET AND ECMWF. TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH BOTH SURFACE AND SOIL TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION EVEN WITH CALM WINDS ATTM FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY (35-40)(40`S ELSEWHERE).IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT IF THE FORECAST TRENDS COOLER THEN THE FROST THREAT WOULD INCREASE. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: WE WILL SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNTIED STATES. THE RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE MAV/MET AND 10/04 00Z GFS LOOK TO COOL GIVEN MODELED 925 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 11C WHICH WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOW 70`S FOR PHL SE AND COOLER NW. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 20 MPH TO BE TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE MONDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE DECAYING AS IT TRIES TO FIGHT OFF THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE.HOWEVER, INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE THREAT FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL LIKELY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIGHTER TEMPERATURES SPREAD AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE MAV/MET IN THIS PERIOD. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT : THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECT ANOTHER SEASONAL DAY. LOWS A BIT WARMER GIVEN MORNING CLOUDS. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ON THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS LIKELY TO KEEP A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES FOR MOST OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL FINALLY KICK OUT IN THIS PERIOD, RESULTING IN A WARMER MORE ZONAL PATTERN. HOWEVER ONE MORE COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. QUITE A TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF 10/04 00Z RUNS. RIGHT NOW PREFER THE 00Z ECMWF OVERALL BUT DID NOT GO AS WARM GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS, ALONG WITH SHOWERS, WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU 13-15Z FOR THE PHILLY TERMINALS AND 15-17Z FOR ACY/MIV. THE FRONT WILL BE MARKED BY A WIND SHIFT FROM S-SE TO W, AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST 20-25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS STRONG CAA ARRIVES. W-NW WINDS WILL RELAX TO BELOW 10 KT AFTER SUNSET. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CAUSE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 10-15 KNOTS AT TIMES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY: VFR. WEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 10 KNOTS. && .MARINE... SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS THE DELAWARE BAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE BEEN GUSTING 20-25 KT SO FAR WHILE SEAS JUST OFFSHORE ARE 5-6 FT. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER DE BAY AND EARLY THIS AFTN IN THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. THESE WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KT, ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING ONCE COLDER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES. THE WARMER WATER TEMPS WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING: WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING CLOSER TO SCA CRITERIA. MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOME INTERMITTENT 25 KNOT WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTH WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WE HAVE HAD TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE LOWER PART OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AS CAMBRIDE CONTINUES TO RISE WITH DEPARTURES AROUND 2.7 FEET; IT NOW LOOKS LIKE CAMBRIDGE WILL GET TO AT LEAST 4.5 FEET ABOVE MLLW. THE ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN BAY REMAINS AS DEPARTURES FOR TOLCHESTER CONTINUES TO DECREASE. IF THEY END UP GOING BACK UP, WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE WARNING BACK NORTHWARD. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. REEDY JUST BARELY REACHED MINOR LEVELS AND PHILLY ENDED UP JUST SHORT. WITH NORTHWEST WINDS NOW ACROSS THE AREA, THE NEXT HIGH TIDE IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR LEVELS AT THIS TIME. ALONG THE COAST, THE ASTRONOMICAL CONTRIBUTION TO THE TOTAL TIDE LEVEL WILL BE A LITTLE LESS THIS MORNING FOR HIGH TIDE, SO FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE IN THE DELAWARE BAY AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THEN FOR THE NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS SHOULD BE OFFSHORE IN A POST- FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, SO TOTAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ070-071. NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ016- 021. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NJZ017>019. DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001. MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008- 012. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ015- 019-020. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GAINES NEAR TERM...KLEIN/KLINE SHORT TERM...KLEIN LONG TERM...GAINES AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN/KLINE MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1013 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THEN GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A 13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND EXTENDING DOWN ACROSS CHESAPEAKE BAY. MEANWHILE, A POTENT UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. A SATELLITE LOOP OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LARGE- SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFYING AND ACQUIRING A NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE MS VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES REGION AS A VORT MAX DIGS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. OVERALL, NOT TOO MANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND SOME AREAS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL PROGRESSING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WE DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS USING THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO CAPTURE THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE, MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK FOR TODAY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND THE EXPECTED INFLOW OF COOLER/DRIER AIR LATER TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHERWISE, SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING. USING THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE, THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP WILL REACH THE WESTERN ZONES OF THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, ENDING NEAR PHILLY AROUND LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE NJ SHORE/PASSAIC RIVER DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN ONE- HALF INCH. HOWEVER, HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW RAIN BAND TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST. A BRIEF HEAVY SHOWER OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. THE POST-FRONTAL CAA SHOULD OFFSET DAYTIME HEATING. ACCORDINGLY, TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO CURRENT READINGS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL LATE IN THE DAY WHEN MUCH COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT, AND WITH A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH, THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL STILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 999 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT IN NEW ENGLAND AND 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG OVER OUR REGION. SIGNIFICANT CAA WILL ALLOW NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER TO PREVENT DECOUPLING AND FOR THE WESTERLY WIND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE COLD AIR STRATOCU OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE EVENING UNTIL MUCH DRIER AIR REACHES THE AREA AND ERODES THE LINGERING CLOUDS. THE 0C 850 MB TEMPS MAKES ITS TRIUMPHANT RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST NJ AND NORTHEAST PA. THESE AIR TEMPS WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST FORMATION BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND WARM GROUND TEMPS WILL MAKE THE SETUP FOR FROST UNFAVORABLE. MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA INCLUDING ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: WE WILL BE IN A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT DRY. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO START IN THIS PERIOD WILL COMPLETE AN IMPRESSIVE PLUMMET AND THIS WILL REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH THE COOLEST DAY IN A WHILE. MANY LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 FOR HIGHS. OVERALL THE 10/04 00Z GFS LOOKS WAY TO COOL AS IT EXTENDS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO OUR REGION. ON THE OTHER HAND THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS LOOK TO WARM. THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WENT WARMER WITH TWO THIRDS EMPHASIS PLACED ON THE MET AND ECMWF. TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH BOTH SURFACE AND SOIL TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION EVEN WITH CALM WINDS ATTM FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY (35-40)(40`S ELSEWHERE).IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT IF THE FORECAST TRENDS COOLER THEN THE FROST THREAT WOULD INCREASE. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: WE WILL SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNTIED STATES. THE RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE MAV/MET AND 10/04 00Z GFS LOOK TO COOL GIVEN MODELED 925 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 11C WHICH WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOW 70`S FOR PHL SE AND COOLER NW. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 20 MPH TO BE TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE MONDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE DECAYING AS IT TRIES TO FIGHT OFF THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE.HOWEVER, INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE THREAT FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL LIKELY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIGHTER TEMPERATURES SPREAD AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE MAV/MET IN THIS PERIOD. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT : THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECT ANOTHER SEASONAL DAY. LOWS A BIT WARMER GIVEN MORNING CLOUDS. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ON THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS LIKELY TO KEEP A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES FOR MOST OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL FINALLY KICK OUT IN THIS PERIOD, RESULTING IN A WARMER MORE ZONAL PATTERN. HOWEVER ONE MORE COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. QUITE A TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF 10/04 00Z RUNS. RIGHT NOW PREFER THE 00Z ECMWF OVERALL BUT DID NOT GO AS WARM GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS, ALONG WITH SHOWERS, WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU 13-15Z FOR THE PHILLY TERMINALS AND 15-17Z FOR ACY/MIV. THE FRONT WILL BE MARKED BY A WIND SHIFT FROM S-SE TO W, AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST 20-25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS STRONG CAA ARRIVES. W-NW WINDS WILL RELAX TO BELOW 10 KT AFTER SUNSET. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CAUSE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 10-15 KNOTS AT TIMES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY: VFR. WEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 10 KNOTS. && .MARINE... SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS THE DELAWARE BAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE BEEN GUSTING 20-25 KT SO FAR WHILE SEAS JUST OFFSHORE ARE 5-6 FT. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER DE BAY AND EARLY THIS AFTN IN THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. THESE WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KT, ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING ONCE COLDER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES. THE WARMER WATER TEMPS WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING: WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING CLOSER TO SCA CRITERIA. MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOME INTERMITTENT 25 KNOT WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTH WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY WAS CANCELLED AS THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE HAS PASSED, AND WAS REPLACED WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NOW THAT NORTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY WINDS HAVE MADE IT TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, WE EXPECT TIDAL DEPARTURES TO BEGIN TO DECREASE SOME. CBOFS SHOWS TOLCHESTER GETTING CLOSE TO MINOR FLOOD LEVEL, AND WITH THE CURRENT LEVELS SO HIGH, IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO LOWER FURTHER. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE WAS EXTENDED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE AS CBOFS SHOWS CAMBRIDGE GETTING AROUND 4 FEET THIS MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND THE LOWER DELAWARE RIVER. POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE AROUND 2 FT AT SHIP JOHN SHOALS AND REEDY POINT, WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO WATER LEVELS PEAKING AT ADVISORY THRESHOLD. HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND 10 AM FOR THESE LOCATIONS. ALONG THE COAST,THE ASTRONOMICAL CONTRIBUTION TO THE TOTAL TIDE LEVEL WILL BE A LITTLE LESS THIS MORNING FOR HIGH TIDE, SO FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE IN THE DELAWARE BAY AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THEN FOR THE NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS SHOULD BE OFFSHORE IN A POST- FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, SO TOTAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ070-071. NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ016- 021. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NJZ017>019. DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001. MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008- 012. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ015-019-020. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GAINES NEAR TERM...KLEIN/KLINE SHORT TERM...KLEIN LONG TERM...GAINES AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN/KLINE MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ROBERTSON/KLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
901 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THEN GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A POTENT UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. A SATELLITE LOOP OF WATER VAPOR NICELY SHOWS THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFYING AND ACQUIRING A NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE MS VALLEY AS A VORT MAX DIGS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED NEAR THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AT 07Z. DEEP SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT IS TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE EAST COAST. A CONNECTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC AND GULF OF MEXICO CAN ALSO BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING. USING THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE, THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP WILL REACH THE WESTERN ZONES OF THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, ENDING NEAR PHILLY AROUND MIDDAY AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE NJ SHORE/PASSAIC RIVER DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN ONE-HALF INCH. HOWEVER, HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW RAIN BAND TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST. A BRIEF HEAVY SHOWER OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. THE POST-FRONTAL CAA SHOULD OFFSET DAYTIME HEATING. ACCORDINGLY, TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO CURRENT READINGS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL LATE IN THE DAY WHEN MUCH COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT, AND WITH A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH, THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL STILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 999 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT IN NEW ENGLAND AND 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG OVER OUR REGION. SIGNIFICANT CAA WILL ALLOW NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER TO PREVENT DECOUPLING AND FOR THE WESTERLY WIND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE COLD AIR STRATOCU OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE EVENING UNTIL MUCH DRIER AIR REACHES THE AREA AND ERODES THE LINGERING CLOUDS. THE 0C 850 MB TEMPS MAKES ITS TRIUMPHANT RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST NJ AND NORTHEAST PA. THESE AIR TEMPS WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST FORMATION BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND WARM GROUND TEMPS WILL MAKE THE SETUP FOR FROST UNFAVORABLE. MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA INCLUDING ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: WE WILL BE IN A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT DRY. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO START IN THIS PERIOD WILL COMPLETE AN IMPRESSIVE PLUMMET AND THIS WILL REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH THE COOLEST DAY IN A WHILE. MANY LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 FOR HIGHS. OVERALL THE 10/04 00Z GFS LOOKS WAY TO COOL AS IT EXTENDS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO OUR REGION. ON THE OTHER HAND THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS LOOK TO WARM. THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WENT WARMER WITH TWO THIRDS EMPHASIS PLACED ON THE MET AND ECMWF. TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH BOTH SURFACE AND SOIL TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION EVEN WITH CALM WINDS ATTM FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY (35-40)(40`S ELSEWHERE).IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT IF THE FORECAST TRENDS COOLER THEN THE FROST THREAT WOULD INCREASE. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: WE WILL SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNTIED STATES. THE RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE MAV/MET AND 10/04 00Z GFS LOOK TO COOL GIVEN MODELED 925 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 11C WHICH WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOW 70`S FOR PHL SE AND COOLER NW. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 20 MPH TO BE TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE MONDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE DECAYING AS IT TRIES TO FIGHT OFF THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE.HOWEVER, INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE THREAT FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL LIKELY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIGHTER TEMPERATURES SPREAD AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE MAV/MET IN THIS PERIOD. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT : THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECT ANOTHER SEASONAL DAY. LOWS A BIT WARMER GIVEN MORNING CLOUDS. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ON THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS LIKELY TO KEEP A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES FOR MOST OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL FINALLY KICK OUT IN THIS PERIOD, RESULTING IN A WARMER MORE ZONAL PATTERN. HOWEVER ONE MORE COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. QUITE A TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF 10/04 00Z RUNS. RIGHT NOW PREFER THE 00Z ECMWF OVERALL BUT DID NOT GO AS WARM GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. IFR CIGS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU RDG/ABE AROUND 12-13Z, 13-15Z FOR THE PHILLY TERMINALS AND 15-17Z FOR ACY/MIV. THE FRONT WILL BE MARKED BY A WIND SHIFT FROM S-SE TO W, AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST 20-25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS STRONG CAA ARRIVES. W-NW WINDS WILL RELAX TO BELOW 10 KT AFTER SUNSET. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CAUSE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 10-15 KNOTS AT TIMES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY: VFR. WEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 10 KNOTS. && .MARINE... SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS THE DELAWARE BAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE BEEN GUSTING 20-25 KT SO FAR WHILE SEAS JUST OFFSHORE ARE 5-6 FT. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER DE BAY AND EARLY THIS AFTN IN THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. THESE WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KT, ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING ONCE COLDER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES. THE WARMER WATER TEMPS WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING: WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING CLOSER TO SCA CRITERIA. MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOME INTERMITTENT 25 KNOT WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTH WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY WAS CANCELLED AS THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE HAS PASSED, AND WAS REPLACED WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NOW THAT NORTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY WINDS HAVE MADE IT TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, WE EXPECT TIDAL DEPARTURES TO BEGIN TO DECREASE SOME. CBOFS SHOWS TOLCHESTER GETTING CLOSE TO MINOR FLOOD LEVEL, AND WITH THE CURRENT LEVELS SO HIGH, IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO LOWER FURTHER. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE WAS EXTENDED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE AS CBOFS SHOWS CAMBRIDGE GETTING AROUND 4 FEET THIS MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND THE LOWER DELAWARE RIVER. POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE AROUND 2 FT AT SHIP JOHN SHOALS AND REEDY POINT, WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO WATER LEVELS PEAKING AT ADVISORY THRESHOLD. HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND 10 AM FOR THESE LOCATIONS. ALONG THE COAST,THE ASTRONOMICAL CONTRIBUTION TO THE TOTAL TIDE LEVEL WILL BE A LITTLE LESS THIS MORNING FOR HIGH TIDE, SO FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE IN THE DELAWARE BAY AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THEN FOR THE NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS SHOULD BE OFFSHORE IN A POST- FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, SO TOTAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ070-071. NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ016- 021. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NJZ017>019. DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001. MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008- 012. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ015-019-020. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GAINES NEAR TERM...KLEIN SHORT TERM...KLEIN LONG TERM...GAINES AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ROBERTSON/KLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
634 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THEN GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A POTENT UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. A SATELLITE LOOP OF WATER VAPOR NICELY SHOWS THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFYING AND ACQUIRING A NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE MS VALLEY AS A VORT MAX DIGS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED NEAR THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AT 07Z. DEEP SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT IS TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE EAST COAST. A CONNECTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC AND GULF OF MEXICO CAN ALSO BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING. USING THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE, THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP WILL REACH THE WESTERN ZONES OF THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, ENDING NEAR PHILLY AROUND MIDDAY AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE NJ SHORE/PASSAIC RIVER DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN ONE-HALF INCH. HOWEVER, HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW RAIN BAND TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST. A BRIEF HEAVY SHOWER OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. THE POST-FRONTAL CAA SHOULD OFFSET DAYTIME HEATING. ACCORDINGLY, TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO CURRENT READINGS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL LATE IN THE DAY WHEN MUCH COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT, AND WITH A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH, THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL STILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 999 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT IN NEW ENGLAND AND 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG OVER OUR REGION. SIGNIFICANT CAA WILL ALLOW NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER TO PREVENT DECOUPLING AND FOR THE WESTERLY WIND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE COLD AIR STRATOCU OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE EVENING UNTIL MUCH DRIER AIR REACHES THE AREA AND ERODES THE LINGERING CLOUDS. THE 0C 850 MB TEMPS MAKES ITS TRIUMPHANT RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST NJ AND NORTHEAST PA. THESE AIR TEMPS WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST FORMATION BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND WARM GROUND TEMPS WILL MAKE THE SETUP FOR FROST UNFAVORABLE. MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA INCLUDING ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: WE WILL BE IN A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT DRY. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO START IN THIS PERIOD WILL COMPLETE AN IMPRESSIVE PLUMMET AND THIS WILL REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH THE COOLEST DAY IN A WHILE. MANY LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 FOR HIGHS. OVERALL THE 10/04 00Z GFS LOOKS WAY TO COOL AS IT EXTENDS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO OUR REGION. ON THE OTHER HAND THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS LOOK TO WARM. THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WENT WARMER WITH TWO THIRDS EMPHASIS PLACED ON THE MET AND ECMWF. TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH BOTH SURFACE AND SOIL TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION EVEN WITH CALM WINDS ATTM FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY (35-40)(40`S ELSEWHERE).IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT IF THE FORECAST TRENDS COOLER THEN THE FROST THREAT WOULD INCREASE. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: WE WILL SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNTIED STATES. THE RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE MAV/MET AND 10/04 00Z GFS LOOK TO COOL GIVEN MODELED 925 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 11C WHICH WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOW 70`S FOR PHL SE AND COOLER NW. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 20 MPH TO BE TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE MONDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE DECAYING AS IT TRIES TO FIGHT OFF THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE.HOWEVER, INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE THREAT FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL LIKELY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIGHTER TEMPERATURES SPREAD AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE MAV/MET IN THIS PERIOD. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT : THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECT ANOTHER SEASONAL DAY. LOWS A BIT WARMER GIVEN MORNING CLOUDS. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ON THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS LIKELY TO KEEP A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES FOR MOST OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL FINALLY KICK OUT IN THIS PERIOD, RESULTING IN A WARMER MORE ZONAL PATTERN. HOWEVER ONE MORE COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. QUITE A TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF 10/04 00Z RUNS. RIGHT NOW PREFER THE 00Z ECMWF OVERALL BUT DID NOT GO AS WARM GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. IFR CIGS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU RDG/ABE AROUND 12-13Z, 13-15Z FOR THE PHILLY TERMINALS AND 15-17Z FOR ACY/MIV. THE FRONT WILL BE MARKED BY A WIND SHIFT FROM S-SE TO W, AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST 20-25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS STRONG CAA ARRIVES. W-NW WINDS WILL RELAX TO BELOW 10 KT AFTER SUNSET. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CAUSE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 10-15 KNOTS AT TIMES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY: VFR. WEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 10 KNOTS. && .MARINE... SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS THE DELAWARE BAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE BEEN GUSTING 20-25 KT SO FAR WHILE SEAS JUST OFFSHORE ARE 5-6 FT. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER DE BAY AND EARLY THIS AFTN IN THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. THESE WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KT, ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING ONCE COLDER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES. THE WARMER WATER TEMPS WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING: WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING CLOSER TO SCA CRITERIA. MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOME INTERMITTENT 25 KNOT WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTH WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU 9 AM FOR THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF THE MD CHESAPEAKE BAY. THE TIDAL GAGE AT TOLCHESTER BEACH REACHED MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING AT AND JUST AFTER HIGH TIDE EARLIER THIS MORNING. TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE STILL AROUND 2.5 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL AT TOLCHESTER. THIS HAS OCCURRED IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT PREVENTED WATER FROM DRAINING THE BAY. HIGH TIDES OCCUR LATEST IN THE NORTHERN MOST PART OF THE BAY IN CECIL COUNTY AT AROUND 7 AM. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND THE LOWER DELAWARE RIVER. POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE AROUND 2 FT AT SHIP JOHN SHOALS AND REEDY POINT, WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO WATER LEVELS PEAKING AT ADVISORY THRESHOLD. HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 7 AND 9 AM FOR THESE LOCATIONS. WE MAY ALSO NEED TO ISSUE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FARTHER UP THE DELAWARE RIVER TOWARD PHILADELPHIA AND BURLINGTON COUNTIES. HIGH TIDE DOESN`T OCCUR UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING UP THERE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO SEE IF ANOMALIES GO DOWN AT ALL. ALONG THE COAST,THE ASTRONOMICAL CONTRIBUTION TO THE TOTAL TIDE LEVEL WILL BE A LITTLE LESS THIS MORNING FOR HIGH TIDE, SO FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE IN THE DELAWARE BAY AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THEN FOR THE NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS SHOULD BE OFFSHORE IN A POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, SO TOTAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ016- 021. DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001. MD...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008- 012-015. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ019- 020. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GAINES NEAR TERM...KLEIN SHORT TERM...KLEIN LONG TERM...GAINES AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
417 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THEN GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A POTENT UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. A SATELLITE LOOP OF WATER VAPOR NICELY SHOWS THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFYING AND ACQUIRING A NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE MS VALLEY AS A VORT MAX DIGS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED NEAR THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AT 07Z. DEEP SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT IS TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE EAST COAST. A CONNECTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC AND GULF OF MEXICO CAN ALSO BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING. USING THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE, THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP WILL OCCUR WITH THE COLD FRONT AND REACH THE WESTERN ZONES OF THE CWA AROUND 10 OR 11 AM. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, ENDING NEAR PHILLY AROUND MIDDAY AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE PASSAIC RIVER DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN ONE-HALF INCH. HOWEVER, HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW RAIN BAND TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ALONG THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. A BRIEF HEAVY SHOWER OR EVEN THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT, AND WITH A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH, THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL STILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 999 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT IN NEW ENGLAND AND 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG OVER OUR REGION. SIGNIFICANT CAA WILL ALLOW NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER TO PREVENT DECOUPLING AND FOR THE WESTERLY WIND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE COLD AIR STRATOCU OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE EVENING UNTIL MUCH DRIER AIR REACHES THE AREA AND ERODES THE LINGERING CLOUDS. THE 0C 850 MB TEMPS MAKES ITS TRIUMPHANT RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST NJ AND NORTHEAST PA. THESE AIR TEMPS WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST FORMATION BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND WARM GROUND TEMPS WILL MAKE THE SETUP FOR FROST UNFAVORABLE. MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA INCLUDING ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: WE WILL BE IN A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT DRY. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO START IN THIS PERIOD WILL COMPLETE AN IMPRESSIVE PLUMMET AND THIS WILL REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH THE COOLEST DAY IN A WHILE. MANY LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 FOR HIGHS. OVERALL THE 10/04 00Z GFS LOOKS WAY TO COOL AS IT EXTENDS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO OUR REGION. ON THE OTHER HAND THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS LOOK TO WARM. THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WENT WARMER WITH TWO THIRDS EMPHASIS PLACED ON THE MET AND ECMWF. TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH BOTH SURFACE AND SOIL TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION EVEN WITH CALM WINDS ATTM FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY (35-40)(40`S ELSEWHERE).IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT IF THE FORECAST TRENDS COOLER THEN THE FROST THREAT WOULD INCREASE. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: WE WILL SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNTIED STATES. THE RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE MAV/MET AND 10/04 00Z GFS LOOK TO COOL GIVEN MODELED 925 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 11C WHICH WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOW 70`S FOR PHL SE AND COOLER NW. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 20 MPH TO BE TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE MONDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE DECAYING AS IT TRIES TO FIGHT OFF THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE.HOWEVER, INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE THREAT FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL LIKELY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIGHTER TEMPERATURES SPREAD AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE MAV/MET IN THIS PERIOD. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT : THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECT ANOTHER SEASONAL DAY. LOWS A BIT WARMER GIVEN MORNING CLOUDS. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ON THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS LIKELY TO KEEP A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES FOR MOST OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL FINALLY KICK OUT IN THIS PERIOD, RESULTING IN A WARMER MORE ZONAL PATTERN. HOWEVER ONE MORE COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. QUITE A TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF 10/04 00Z RUNS. RIGHT NOW PREFER THE 00Z ECMWF OVERALL BUT DID NOT GO AS WARM GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. IFR CIGS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU RDG/ABE AROUND 12-13Z, 13-15Z FOR THE PHILLY TERMINALS AND 15-17Z FOR ACY/MIV. THE FRONT WILL BE MARKED BY A WIND SHIFT FROM S-SE TO W, AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST 20-25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS STRONG CAA ARRIVES. W-NW WINDS WILL RELAX TO BELOW 10 KT AFTER SUNSET. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CAUSE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 10-15 KNOTS AT TIMES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY: VFR. WEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 10 KNOTS. && .MARINE... SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS THE DELAWARE BAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE BEEN GUSTING 20-25 KT SO FAR WHILE SEAS JUST OFFSHORE ARE 5-6 FT. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER DE BAY AND EARLY THIS AFTN IN THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. THESE WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KT, ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING ONCE COLDER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES. THE WARMER WATER TEMPS WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING: WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING CLOSER TO SCA CRITERIA. MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOME INTERMITTENT 25 KNOT WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTH WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008- 012-015. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ019- 020. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GAINES NEAR TERM...KLEIN SHORT TERM...KLEIN LONG TERM...GAINES AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
810 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014 .UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT)... 00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD BUT DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHING IS NOW IN CONTROL OF MUCH OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER...OTHER THAN COOL TEMPERATURES...THERE IS NOT MUCH "WEATHER" GOING ON ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS EVENING. THE FLORIDA PENINSULA RESIDES ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH CIRCULATION UNDER A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN PER WV IMAGERY AND 06/00Z KTBW SOUNDING. OUR PW FROM THE SOUNDING THIS EVENING IS STILL VERY LOW FOR EARLY OCTOBER WITH A CALCULATED VALUE OF ONLY AROUND 0.5". IT WAS LITTLE DOUBT OF THE DRYNESS OF THE COLUMN WITH VIRTUALLY ZERO CLOUDS IN THE SKY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. BEGINNING TO SEE THE HIGHEST LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CIRRUS BUILD BACK IN TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THE MID/LOWER LEVELS WILL STAY DRY. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING AND IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO LIKELY ALLOW FOR A DECOUPLING AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NATURE COAST. OUR SOUTHERN ZONES MAY BE REMOVED JUST ENOUGH FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO STAY SLIGHTLY MIXED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT EITHER WAY IT WILL BE A COOL NIGHT FOR ALL. BY SUNRISE IN THE MORNING...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD SHOW WIDESPREAD 40S TO THE NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND 50S FURTHER SOUTH. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PINELLAS COUNTY AND AREAS AROUND CHARLOTTE HARBOR WILL HOLD IN THE LOWER 60S WITH A LIGHT NE WIND OFF AN OCEAN SURFACE. ENJOY THE REST OF YOUR SUNDAY EVENING AND HAVE A GREAT MONDAY EVERYONE! && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY...WITH RIDGING REMAINING THE DOMINANT WEATHER INFLUENCE ON THE LOCAL AREA. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...BUT WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET ALLOWS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS TO OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN HALF OF STATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT FROM WHAT WAS SEEN TODAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 80S ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AND IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCALES. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE MOVES EASTWARD PRODUCING PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST LESS THAN 15 KNOTS FOR TONIGHT AND VEER EASTERLY AND FURTHER DECREASE ON MONDAY. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO ABATE REMAINING LESS THAN 3 FEET DURING THE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALSO WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS BY MID WEEK. NO HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 59 82 69 87 / 0 0 0 10 FMY 62 85 69 88 / 0 0 10 20 GIF 58 83 66 87 / 0 0 0 10 SRQ 58 83 67 87 / 0 0 0 10 BKV 45 83 60 87 / 0 0 0 10 SPG 65 82 71 87 / 0 0 0 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...MROCZKA PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...JELSEMA MARINE...WYNN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
950 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 .DISCUSSION... ...UNFAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND... ...NEAR RECORD LOWS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS... TODAY...CONVECTION OCCURRING WITH PRE FRONTAL TROUGH HAS BEEN WEAKENING AS IT TRAVERSES THE PENINSULA AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH A DIMINISHING AREA OF SHOWERS AFFECTING SOUTHERN SECTIONS. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE SHOWERS/DEBRIS CLOUDS DIMINISH AND ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS BEFORE THE ACTUAL FRONT APPROACHES. THE HRRR MODEL DOES NOT GENERATE MUCH CONVECTION AFTER THE DECAYING CONVECTION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN SECTIONS. THE LOCAL WRF MODEL DOES SHOW SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COUNTIES AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THAT IS WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS...SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES THERE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE NORTH RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING...THEN DRIER AIR WILL START FILTERING IN. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD THERE TOO. && .AVIATION... VERY MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ALLOWING FOR A FEW PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS. EXPECT LOCAL CEILINGS TO LIFT TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT INTERIOR/NORTHERN TERMINALS AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR SHORTLY AFTER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT A CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY KVRB-KFPR-KSUA ONCE CLOUDS DIMINISH...APPROXIMATELY 18-21Z AHEAD OF THE FRONT. && .MARINE... LITTLE CHANGE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION LOOKS GOOD. TODAY...COOL FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE DAY CLEARING THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BOATING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TODAY AND BECOME HAZARDOUS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FEET ON NORTH WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS. SO HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE GULF STREAM NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SUN...NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE AND SEAS 6-7 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM EXPECTED INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN BEGIN TO RELAX INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 5 FEET OFFSHORE. && .CLIMATE... LAST TIME TEMPS WERE BELOW 60 DEGREES... DAB...MAY 18 (57) MCO...APR 22 (57) MLB...MAY 17 (59) VRB...MAY 22 (59) FPR...MAY 22 (57) RECORD LOWS... BEST CHANCE TO TIE OR BREAK LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL BE AT DAYTONA BEACH BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. HOWEVER CURRENT FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AT THE OTHER CLIMATE SITES WILL ALSO BE CLOSE...GENERALLY WITHIN 2 TO 3 DEGREES. 10/05 10/06 DAYTONA BEACH 58 (1987) 57 (2010) ORLANDO 56 (1929) 57 (1921) MELBOURNE 59 (1938) 60 (1980) VERO BEACH 60 (1987) 60 (1980) && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ FORECASTS...LASCODY IMPACT WEATHER...BLOTTMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1013 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014 .DISCUSSION... 214 PM CDT THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE IDENTIFYING AND TIMING INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE FEATURES IN PROLONGED NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER IMPACTS. .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MASSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE CENTER OF A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WOBBLING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND BREAKS DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH EVENTUALLY HELPS OUR NEARLY STATIONARY CANADIAN CLOSED LOW TO MOVE MORE DECISIVELY EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. UPPER FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA THUS BECOMES SOMEWHAT FLATTER BY MID-WEEK...WHILE RETAINING A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALSO IN THIS PROCESS...CURRENT TROPICAL STORM SIMON GETS ABSORBED AS A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY SUB-TROPICAL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. LOCALLY...OUR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODULATED A SERIES OF RELATIVELY SMALL AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS RIPPLING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW. TIMING THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. THE FIRST OF THESE WAS PROPAGATING FROM CENTRAL IL INTO INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY MID-CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OR SO OF COUNTIES. THESE SPRINKLES SHOULD MOVE LARGELY EAST INTO INDIANA BY EVENING. ANOTHER QUICK-MOVING SHORT WAVE WAS NOTED IN GOES VAPOR IMAGERY DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS TOO IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS IA AND CENTRAL IL LATER TONIGHT WHILE YET ANOTHER CIRCULATION IN THE TWIN CITIES VICINITY PASSES TO OUR NORTH. THIS PRESENTS ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A SECOND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION AND MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT NOTED IN THE 290-300 K LAYER. TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS DO NOT SHOW OVERLY IMPRESSIVE SATURATION THROUGH THE COLUMN...THOUGH GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SQUEEZING OUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP LIKELY LINGERING INTO MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS THE SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER FAST DIGGING SHORT WAVE IS DEPICTED DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATER MONDAY NIGHT...WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES AGAIN DEVELOPING AND SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND WITH BETTER CHANCE POPS GENERALLY TO THE EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS AS THE DEEP LOW TO OUR NORTH FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT DOES ALLOW A BIT OF A WARMING TREND THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH HIGHS FROM UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S MONDAY RISING TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S TUESDAY. WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE COOLER IN TH 60-65 RANGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...THOUGH A COUPLE OF OUR TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS MAY DIP TO THE UPPER 30S ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO MAXIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING. .LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS NOTED ABOVE...AS UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES SOMEWHAT FLATTER AND MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY...WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON EVENTUALLY WORKS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY. WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH TENDS TO HANG BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IN BRINGING A PORTION OF THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A RENEWED PUSH OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM JET AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MAY AID IN SPREADING PRECIP AS FAR NORTH AS THE IL/WI BORDER THURSDAY...BEFORE THE BETTER FOCUS ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGING THE THREAT OF RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA. DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS DEVELOP IN THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS...WITH THE 00/12Z ECMWF RUNS DECIDEDLY STRONGER WITH TROUGHING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. WHILE CONFIDENCE LOWER WITH SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE BY DAY 7...HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT SUNDAY AS A NOD TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUN. TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED REMAIN COOLER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY/MID OCTOBER...WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE INDICATING 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS AND UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S FOR MINS. RATZER && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z... * MEDIUM FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. * MEDIUM FOR SHRA TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...LOW FOR TIMING. * LOW FOR MVFR CIGS MONDAY MORNING. CMS //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 03Z... A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND ARE SPREADING EAST/SOUTHEAST. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM SO OPTED TO REMAIN DRY IN THIS UPDATE BUT AS TRENDS EMERGE...VFR SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE TAFS. CMS PREVIOUS 00Z DISCUSSION... A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. ITS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW SHOWERS PRIOR TO THE INDICATED 07Z-09Z BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW SOON PRECIP MAY ARRIVE OR DEVELOP IS LOW. AS THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE...SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10KTS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND THEN BEGIN TO GUST AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20KT RANGE POSSIBLE THRU SUNSET. CMS //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z... * MEDIUM FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. * MEDIUM FOR SHRA TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...LOW FOR TIMING. * LOW FOR MVFR CIGS MONDAY MORNING. CMS //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z... * TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. * WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. * THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. * FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. && .MARINE... 208 PM CDT A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW MEANDERS AROUND NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH MIDWEEK. BRISK SWLY-WLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE LOW KICKS OUT TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. WHILE GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME...THERE WILL BE PERIODS WHEN WINDS WILL REACH ARND 30KT...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DROP OUT OF CANADA AND SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH HIGH PLAINS...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OUT OF CANADA. BY FRIDAY...THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGIONS. KREIN && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 851 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 850 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014 Short-wave trough currently evident on water vapor imagery over the Plains has spread showers as far east as Omaha and Kansas City as of mid-evening. HRRR continues to show the showers spreading eastward into west-central Illinois by around midnight, then further east to the Indiana border overnight. 00z KILX upper air sounding shows a pronounced dry layer below 800mb, so any precip that occurs will be quite light and may tend to be slower to arrive than the models forecast. Will therefore continue to go with a dry forecast this evening, followed by chance PoPs overnight. Thanks to increasing clouds and precip, low temperatures will be warmer than previous nights, with lows remaining in the middle to upper 40s. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014 Weak showers ahead of a shortwave have exited most of the CWA as of 2 pm except along the Indiana border. Latest surface map shows the associated surface reflection between the Mississippi and Illinois River valleys, and this should move through the CWA the remainder of the afternoon. Main focus for tonight is with potential for additional showers, as another shortwave currently in South Dakota rotates into the Midwest as part of the broad upper trough that covers much of the east 2/3 of the nation. High-resolution models bring an area of showers into the western CWA quickly after about 1-2 am, with the areas northwest of the Illinois River already drying out by sunrise. Have increased PoP`s in most areas in the 09-12Z time frame, although rainfall amounts are still looking to be minor. && .LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday) ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014 There remains model consensus that the longwave trough will remain in place across the eastern CONUS into Wednesday, and then begin to shift eastward. However, there are varying solutions on the timing and intensity of the various shortwaves that are projected to rotate through the trough during that time. The strongest wave is now projected for late tonight and Monday morning, which is about 6 hours faster than previous model solutions. Some adjustments were made for that potential, with reduced PoPs by mid-day on Monday west of I-57. Thunder potential was left in the forecast Monday afternoon due to steep lapse rates, mainly south of a line from Rushville to Lincoln to Champaign. Another wave appears to affect central IL later Monday night into Tuesday morning with another quick shot of showers or sprinkles. The potential for measurable rain from the showers with those first two waves is low. Most areas that do see rain may only get trace amounts, or below `slight chance` PoP levels. For now will continue with low chance and slight chance PoPs in the Mon-Tue time frame to show that showers will be possible. Guidance numbers from the NAM seem to be overdoing a brief warm-up on Tuesday ahead of the surface front. With clouds and showers in place for the morning and clearing not expected until after peak heating, will trim highs at or below guidance. Wednesday looks to be a dry day for now as the upper trough slides east, heights rise aloft and surface high pressure builds into Illinois. The typical warming associated with height rises aloft will be counter-acted by the cold air with the surface high, so overall the temps will cool down Wed into Thursday. For Thursday, the remnants of Simon may come into play for our forecast, as the moisture and wave energy get drawn into the quasi-zonal flow from the southwest toward southern IL. The GFS is the most progressive with that scenario, while the ECMWF seems to stall the energy back over the Plains, but still send the moisture eastward toward Illinois. Models typically have a poor handle on the progression of tropical systems once they come on land, so will not make significant changes in the forecast. Will be keeping the likely and high chance PoPs focused on Thursday for showers and isolated thunderstorms as the remnants of Simon possible reach IL. Beyond that, the GFS brings high pressure with reinforcing cool air through next Sunday. Meanwhile the ECMWF finally ejects the wave energy from Simon into IL on Sunday, with additional Gulf moisture in tow and creates a wet scenario for the last half of next weekend. The extended blend was influenced by the ECMWF enough for chance PoPs to remain for Sat night/Sunday for now. Overall, temps will remain below seasonal normals over the next week, with Tuesday possibly the warmest day with highs possibly reaching around 70. Otherwise, 50s and 60s will prevail for highs through next Sunday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014 Weak area of low pressure located just west of KCMI will track off to the east this evening, allowing skies to partially clear for a few hours before another fast-moving short-wave approaches from the northwest overnight. Next wave in question is currently triggering clouds and a few light showers across South Dakota/Nebraska/western Iowa. Most high-res model guidance suggests these clouds/showers will spread across central Illinois after midnight. Based on model guidance and satellite timing tools, have introduced VCSH at KPIA by 08z, then further east to KCMI by 10z. Once this wave passes, skies will once again partially clear and winds will veer to the west Tuesday morning. Forecast soundings indicate gusts of around 20kt, strongest across east-central Illinois. While weak synoptic subsidence will be in place behind the departing wave, steep lapse rates will lead to diurnal clouds Tuesday afternoon. Cu-rule suggests mainly SCT cloud cover, with BKN ceilings along/north of the I-74 terminals. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Barnes SHORT TERM...Geelhart LONG TERM...Shimon AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
140 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 AN UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER FLOW WILL THEN FLATTEN OUT AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT SYSTEMS MOVING ALONG IN THE FLOW WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF RAIN AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING SOME SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...BUT DO NOT BE FOOLED. THE SUN IS DOING LITTLE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA ONLY IN THE LOW 40S AS OF 1330Z. AREA OF STRATOCU ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW ALREADY EXPANDING INTO THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ENABLE CLOUDS TO QUICKLY FILL BACK IN OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT AS WELL...FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH LATE DAY. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES COMBINED WITH SUBTLE INSTABILITY SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR ICE PELLETS TO MIX IN WITH LIGHT RAIN OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES TODAY. CHANCES LOOK LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHER CHANGE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE IS TO LOWER HIGHS BY A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. RAP SURFACE TEMPS AND CURRENT LAMP DATA BOTH SUPPORT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAY STILL SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S OVER THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. COULD BE A CLOSE CALL FOR THE DAILY RECORD LOW MAX AT KIND...49 DEGREES FROM 1885. BRISK WESTERLY WINDS WILL EXACERBATE THE RAW CONDITIONS ALL DAY. ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT. && .SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/ ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED FOR MOST ITEMS. MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS ONE UPPER IMPULSE EXITS THE AREA BUT ANOTHER APPROACHES. WITH PERHAPS SOME WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT IMPULSE INTERACTING WITH THIS MOISTURE EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME WIND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT. THUS EXPECT READINGS TO STAY ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK...AND THE WINDS SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD FROST FROM FORMING. WILL MENTION PATCHY FROST SINCE SOME COULD FORM IN SHELTERED AREAS...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORY PRODUCTS FOR TONIGHT. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT A FEW IMPULSES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. THESE WILL INTERACT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO PRODUCE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES. WILL GO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE MOMENT THE IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST OF THESE WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY...SO WENT HIGHEST POPS THEN. FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ON...MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM FOR HIGHS GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET MOS FOR HIGHS. FOR LOWS GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS ONTARIO ON TUESDAY AND TO JAMES BAY TUESDAY NIGHT. IT DOES...A TROUGH WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE TO TRIGGER SHOWERS THAT WILL BE ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AFTER A DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AND RESULT IN MORE SHOWER CHANCES BY THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S PER REGIONAL BLEND LOOK GOOD FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY EXPECTED. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 04/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 104 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 WIDESPREAD STRATOCU IS IMPACTING TAF SITES AS UPPER LOW ROTATES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE AT VFR CATEGORY AND WILL REMAIN THERE FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE FALLING NORTH AND EAST OF TAF SITES...BUT TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SO...NO MENTION OF PRECIP IN TAFS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 14 TO 19 KTS...GUSTING TO 26 KTS. TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 6 TO 10 KTS. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...50 NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM....MK AVIATION...TDUD VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1019 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 AN UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER FLOW WILL THEN FLATTEN OUT AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT SYSTEMS MOVING ALONG IN THE FLOW WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF RAIN AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING SOME SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...BUT DO NOT BE FOOLED. THE SUN IS DOING LITTLE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA ONLY IN THE LOW 40S AS OF 1330Z. AREA OF STRATOCU ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW ALREADY EXPANDING INTO THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ENABLE CLOUDS TO QUICKLY FILL BACK IN OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT AS WELL...FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH LATE DAY. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES COMBINED WITH SUBTLE INSTABILITY SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR ICE PELLETS TO MIX IN WITH LIGHT RAIN OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES TODAY. CHANCES LOOK LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHER CHANGE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE IS TO LOWER HIGHS BY A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. RAP SURFACE TEMPS AND CURRENT LAMP DATA BOTH SUPPORT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAY STILL SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S OVER THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. COULD BE A CLOSE CALL FOR THE DAILY RECORD LOW MAX AT KIND...49 DEGREES FROM 1885. BRISK WESTERLY WINDS WILL EXACERBATE THE RAW CONDITIONS ALL DAY. ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT. && .SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/ ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED FOR MOST ITEMS. MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS ONE UPPER IMPULSE EXITS THE AREA BUT ANOTHER APPROACHES. WITH PERHAPS SOME WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT IMPULSE INTERACTING WITH THIS MOISTURE EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME WIND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT. THUS EXPECT READINGS TO STAY ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK...AND THE WINDS SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD FROST FROM FORMING. WILL MENTION PATCHY FROST SINCE SOME COULD FORM IN SHELTERED AREAS...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORY PRODUCTS FOR TONIGHT. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT A FEW IMPULSES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. THESE WILL INTERACT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO PRODUCE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES. WILL GO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE MOMENT THE IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST OF THESE WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY...SO WENT HIGHEST POPS THEN. FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ON...MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM FOR HIGHS GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET MOS FOR HIGHS. FOR LOWS GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS ONTARIO ON TUESDAY AND TO JAMES BAY TUESDAY NIGHT. IT DOES...A TROUGH WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE TO TRIGGER SHOWERS THAT WILL BE ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AFTER A DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AND RESULT IN MORE SHOWER CHANCES BY THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S PER REGIONAL BLEND LOOK GOOD FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY EXPECTED. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 04/1500Z TAF UPDATE/... ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 UPDATE... INCREASED WIND GUSTS AT KIND. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND VFR CU STREAMS SOUTH IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH. COULD BE BRIEF CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING...BUT MORE CU SHOULD MOVE WITH THE NEXT IMPULSE. WOULD NOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS AT IND AND LAF...BUT COVERAGE TOO LOW TO MENTION. WINDS WILL BE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND TO NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 23Z WITH SUNSET. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...50 NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM....MK AVIATION...MK/TDUD VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
948 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 .UPDATE... THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 AN UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER FLOW WILL THEN FLATTEN OUT AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT SYSTEMS MOVING ALONG IN THE FLOW WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF RAIN AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING SOME SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...BUT DO NOT BE FOOLED. THE SUN IS DOING LITTLE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA ONLY IN THE LOW 40S AS OF 1330Z. AREA OF STRATOCU ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW ALREADY EXPANDING INTO THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ENABLE CLOUDS TO QUICKLY FILL BACK IN OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT AS WELL...FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH LATE DAY. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES COMBINED WITH SUBTLE INSTABILITY SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR ICE PELLETS TO MIX IN WITH LIGHT RAIN OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES TODAY. CHANCES LOOK LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHER CHANGE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE IS TO LOWER HIGHS BY A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. RAP SURFACE TEMPS AND CURRENT LAMP DATA BOTH SUPPORT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAY STILL SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S OVER THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. COULD BE A CLOSE CALL FOR THE DAILY RECORD LOW MAX AT KIND...49 DEGREES FROM 1885. BRISK WESTERLY WINDS WILL EXACERBATE THE RAW CONDITIONS ALL DAY. ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT. && .SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/ ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED FOR MOST ITEMS. MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS ONE UPPER IMPULSE EXITS THE AREA BUT ANOTHER APPROACHES. WITH PERHAPS SOME WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT IMPULSE INTERACTING WITH THIS MOISTURE EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME WIND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT. THUS EXPECT READINGS TO STAY ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK...AND THE WINDS SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD FROST FROM FORMING. WILL MENTION PATCHY FROST SINCE SOME COULD FORM IN SHELTERED AREAS...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORY PRODUCTS FOR TONIGHT. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT A FEW IMPULSES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. THESE WILL INTERACT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO PRODUCE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES. WILL GO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE MOMENT THE IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST OF THESE WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY...SO WENT HIGHEST POPS THEN. FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ON...MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM FOR HIGHS GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET MOS FOR HIGHS. FOR LOWS GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS ONTARIO ON TUESDAY AND TO JAMES BAY TUESDAY NIGHT. IT DOES...A TROUGH WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE TO TRIGGER SHOWERS THAT WILL BE ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AFTER A DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AND RESULT IN MORE SHOWER CHANCES BY THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S PER REGIONAL BLEND LOOK GOOD FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY EXPECTED. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 041200Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND VFR CU STREAMS SOUTH IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH. COULD BE BRIEF CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING...BUT MORE CU SHOULD MOVE WITH THE NEXT IMPULSE. WOULD NOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS AT IND AND LAF...BUT COVERAGE TOO LOW TO MENTION. WINDS WILL BE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND TO NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 23Z WITH SUNSET. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...50 NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM....MK AVIATION...MK VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1233 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 736 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014 RADAR TRENDS THE PAST 90 MINUTES SHOW A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF THE PRECIPITATION. RAP TRENDS INDICATE THE OVERALL FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING BRINGING AN EARLIER END TO THE PRECIPITATION. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS/CO-OP REPORTS THE PRECIPITATION IS MORE OF A MIX NOW. UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014 MORE OBSERVATION SITES ARE REPORTING LIGHT SNOW...UNKNOWN PRECIP OR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO BETTER FIT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. RADAR DOES SHOW A POCKET OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF THE KCID AREA TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. UPDATE ISSUED AT 453 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014 LIGHT SNOW IS NOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT THE OFFICE SO THE RADAR RETURNS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE METRO AREA MINIMALLY HAVE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014 06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS SEVERAL WEAK TROFS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST WITH 40S AND HIGHER FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014 RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN THAT WAS MOVING INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. SEVERAL SITES INDICATE PURE SNOW FALLING WITH THE NEAREST SITE BEING KDEH. THE FORCING SUPPORTING THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND OVERSPREAD ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID DAY. THE DRYNESS OF THE OVERALL AIR WILL COOL THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS COOLING WILL RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX THAN CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW PRIOR TO SUNRISE. GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S SO ANY SNOW WILL MELT ON CONTACT. AIR TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO ABOVE FREEZING SO NO ACCUMULATION WILL BE SEEN ON ELEVATED SURFACES. LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE AFTER SUNRISE AND SLOW MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN BEFORE ENDING AROUND MID DAY. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS DO BRING UP THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST LATE TONIGHT FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-80. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014 MOST OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW MEANDERING ABOUT WESTERN ONTARIO PROVINCE THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD... WITH A FEW BOUTS OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE SHUTTLED DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW. TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES AND SUBSEQUENT PCPN CHANCES REMAINS ONE OF THE BIGGEST CHALLENGES GIVEN POOR MODEL CONSISTENCY. BLENDED APPROACH HIGHLIGHTS MONDAY AND LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS MAIN WINDOWS OF ANY RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN NORTHWEST FLOW ANY RAIN AMOUNTS MOSTLY SPOTTY AND LIGHT. THE QUESTION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK IS EVENTUAL TRACK OF HURRICANE SIMON REMNANTS AND WHETHER OR NOT THEY INTERACT WITH FRONTAL ZONE TO BRING BETTER RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014 STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE LIFTING ABOVE MVFR LEVELS AS OF 18Z TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT TONIGHT. WHILE THE AIR WILL BE COLD...WE WILL SEE WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE UNDER 10 KTS BY SUNSET TONIGHT...WITH A GENERAL BACKING TO WEST EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE SOUTH OF IOWA. AFTER 06Z/05 WIDESPREAD MID CLOUDS ABOVE 8000 FT WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST AS WARM AIR BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ANY TIME DURING THE PERIOD. ERVIN && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...08 SYNOPSIS...05 SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...05 AVIATION...ERVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
738 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 736 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014 RADAR TRENDS THE PAST 90 MINUTES SHOW A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF THE PRECIPITATION. RAP TRENDS INDICATE THE OVERALL FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING BRINGING AN EARLIER END TO THE PRECIPITATION. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS/CO-OP REPORTS THE PRECIPITATION IS MORE OF A MIX NOW. UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014 MORE OBSERVATION SITES ARE REPORTING LIGHT SNOW...UNKNOWN PRECIP OR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO BETTER FIT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. RADAR DOES SHOW A POCKET OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF THE KCID AREA TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. UPDATE ISSUED AT 453 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014 LIGHT SNOW IS NOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT THE OFFICE SO THE RADAR RETURNS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE METRO AREA MINIMALLY HAVE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014 06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS SEVERAL WEAK TROFS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST WITH 40S AND HIGHER FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014 RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN THAT WAS MOVING INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. SEVERAL SITES INDICATE PURE SNOW FALLING WITH THE NEAREST SITE BEING KDEH. THE FORCING SUPPORTING THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND OVERSPREAD ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID DAY. THE DRYNESS OF THE OVERALL AIR WILL COOL THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS COOLING WILL RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX THAN CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW PRIOR TO SUNRISE. GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S SO ANY SNOW WILL MELT ON CONTACT. AIR TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO ABOVE FREEZING SO NO ACCUMULATION WILL BE SEEN ON ELEVATED SURFACES. LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE AFTER SUNRISE AND SLOW MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN BEFORE ENDING AROUND MID DAY. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS DO BRING UP THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST LATE TONIGHT FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-80. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014 MOST OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW MEANDERING ABOUT WESTERN ONTARIO PROVINCE THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD... WITH A FEW BOUTS OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE SHUTTLED DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW. TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES AND SUBSEQUENT PCPN CHANCES REMAINS ONE OF THE BIGGEST CHALLENGES GIVEN POOR MODEL CONSISTENCY. BLENDED APPROACH HIGHLIGHTS MONDAY AND LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS MAIN WINDOWS OF ANY RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN NORTHWEST FLOW ANY RAIN AMOUNTS MOSTLY SPOTTY AND LIGHT. THE QUESTION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK IS EVENTUAL TRACK OF HURRICANE SIMON REMNANTS AND WHETHER OR NOT THEY INTERACT WITH FRONTAL ZONE TO BRING BETTER RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014 AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AT KCID/KMLI/KBRL WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KDBQ. AREAS THAT ARE MVFR WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR AFT 18Z/04. AFT 00Z/05 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH FROST POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...08 SYNOPSIS...05 SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...05 AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1003 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2014 .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... Issued at 1002 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014 The difference between the model initialization and the low level mandatory upper air fields is fairly wide this evening. For this mid-evening update had to make some more dramatic changes with respect to PoPs, weather, temperatures, dewpoints, etc...than previously forecast. Comparing both the explicit high resolution and medium range guidance with mandatory level temperatures and dewpoints, the only guidance that was even close was the ECMWF and SREF at 850 mb and 700 mb...with the 4km NAM-WRF closer at 925 mb. Most guidance too dry or cool. Shortly after 00z Monday, the 11-3.9 micron difference channel picked up on a rapidly developing WNW-ESE band of mid-level cumulus (most likely ACCAS). Between 01z-02z, elevated cores were apparent on the KPAH, KHPX, KEVV radars. Given the surface orientation of dewpoints at the surface, suspect a focused zone of isentropic lift along with a developing elevated frontal boundary. You could almost see a low amplitude baroclinic leaf developing in the satellite imagery. The latest RAP and HRRR guidance appear to handling this, with the ECMWF providing a gross picture for convection for the rest of tonight. A mention of thunderstorms was added to the MO bootheel and Purchase Area of West Kentucky between KPOF and KCEY for later tonight as more upright convection moves into play over the area. Needless to say, the atmosphere has compensated much faster than model guidance has anticipated with this next system. && .UPDATE... Issued at 645 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014 Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 253 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014 A series of upper-level disturbances will lead to rather active weather through Tuesday. Thankfully, there seems to be some consensus amongst the 12Z model suite that allows for some much needed detail to the PoP forecast through the period. An initial disturbance is currently slipping by just northeast of the area with a few light showers. Those showers should be well east of the area in a couple of hours. Otherwise, very good clearing is expected into the evening. The next disturbance will spread south and east across the region late tonight into Monday morning. There just isn`t much moisture to work with, so figure there may be a few light showers or just sprinkles. Low-level moisture should be increasing through the day, and as a more significant trough arrives in the afternoon, surface-based convection will be possible mainly over west Kentucky by 21Z. The NAM soundings show very steep low-level and mid-level lapse rates and quite strong deep layer shear. This environment, if it develops, would easily support supercells. The main issue will be how far north low-level moisture return can make it. Conceivably it could blow up to our south and never make into west Kentucky. Also, we may get just enough to initiate convection, but not enough to support it. Anyway, cannot dispute the day 2 slight risk area, and if the moisture gets here, large hail, damaging winds and possibly a few tornadoes will be possible. The Monday afternoon activity will move south and east by early evening, and much of the area will be dry through Midnight. The next disturbance will pivot through the region late Monday night into Tuesday. Low-level moisture will continue to increase, and lower 60 dewpoints could make it to the southern half of the region by early Tuesday. Steep lapse rates and strong shear will be present again, but there will likely be a weak cold front, more lift and better moisture to work with. Would not be at all surprised to see more severe storms over west Kentucky Tuesday. Given the forcing, it may be more linear, but severe is not at all out of the question. Most of the convection should clear the area by 00Z Wednesday, but will leave a slight chance in the far southeast Tuesday evening just to give it a wide berth. With all of the moving parts, did not stray far from consensus of guidance for temperatures through the period. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 253 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014 On Wednesday, overall we expect dry conditions. However, models show some lingering moisture across our far southern counties, so kept just some slight pops for these areas. By Wednesday night into Thursday, models are in good agreement lifting the front back northward, leading to increased precipitation chances. They are also in good agreement late Thursday into Thursday night, showing low pressure moving along the front across the PAH forecast area. This will lead to our best chances of significant precip, and with models lining up well, went with likely pops for showers with a chance of thunderstorms across our northern and western counties on Thursday, and across all of our counties Thursday night. Confidence drops off for Friday and beyond. GFS and GEM build high pressure across the upper Mississippi valley, thus pushing the front south away from our region. Previous and latest ECMWF keeps the front just south of our region through Saturday and lingers precip across our area. It then shows low pressure surging northeast Sunday, spreading more precip across the area. Consensus is to keep some low chance pops across the entire PAH fa through the weekend for now. Near seasonal temperatures area expected Wednesday into Thursday night, then we should see a bit of a cool down Friday into the weekend with the front south of the region and northerly winds. && .AVIATION... Issued at 645 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014 With the approach of a system out of the plains, VFR cloudiness will be on the increase overnight. Chances for showers will increase after 18Z at all sites, with thunder chances at KCGI/KPAH between 18-00Z. Southerly winds AOB 10 knots through 18Z, then southwest to west at 8-10 knots with gusts up to 15 knots. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE...Smith SHORT TERM...DRS LONG TERM...RST AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1205 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2014 .SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2014 Another chilly fall day expected with well below average temperatures and gusty WNW winds as the region remains locked in deep cyclonic flow. Probably the biggest item of concern is the amount of cloud cover today. Current trajectory of the thicker stratus across eastern MN/northeast IA would be across northern/central Illinois. Model low level RH progs suggest some diurnal cu across the northeast quarter of the CWA, with the RAP more agressive with both coverage and also bringing the cu further southeast into eastern MO. I have given some weight to the RAP and have bumped up the sky coverage from the previous forecast. Glass .LONG TERM: (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2014 A cold night on tap as the weak surface ridge now centered through the high Plains slides across the area and results in gradually backing surface winds. Warm advection aloft will get underway and there will be an increase in mid/high clouds overnight in advance of the next upstream NW flow disturbance. Just how low the temperatures get tonight will be strongly based on the arrival of the clouds. The main thrust of these looks through central and northeast MO, while southern sections of the CWA will remain void of clouds longer. I have mentioned patchy frost across the eastern Ozarks into portions of southwest IL with this in mind, and due to topography-drainage and lighter winds where I have mins in the mid 30s. Sunday into Tuesday the forecast is a bit tricky thanks to a series of NW flow disturbances traversing the region and associated weak surface boundaries. The first of these on Sunday is accompanied by a weak surface low/trof and trailing cold front with good low level warm advection ahead of it. High temperatures should be quite a bit warmer as a result. Some of the guidance is generating light and spotty QPF with the ECMWF the most agressive. After collaboration with neighboring offices, will hold off introducing any pops and let the next shift get a fresher look. This initial boundary then washes out with yet another disturbance and front forecast to impact the area late Sunday night and into Monday. This system will have a bit better moisture (albiet still limited) and steep lapse rates to yield weak instability, thus I have added the mention of thunder across the southeast half of the CWA on Monday afternoon. Tuesday looks largely dry and warmer with average to above average temperatures continuing into Thursday. Confidence in the forecast diminishes Thursday into Friday with the GFS and ECMWF and ensemble members exhibiting some rather large differences. Glass && .AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 1133 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2014 Looking at satellite loops it appears that the wrap around stratocumulus cloud mass centered over the Great Lakes region will remain northeast of the taf sites this afternoon, although there is scattered diurnal cumulus clouds over our area. These clouds should dissipate early this evening with loss of daytime heating. The strong and gusty w-nwly surface winds will also diminish early this evening and back around to a s-swly direction as the surface pressure gradient relaxes and the surface high centered over eastern TX and LA shifts eastward. Mid level cloudiness will advect southeastward into the taf sites late tonight in an area of warm air advection ahead of a weak northwest flow upper level disturbance. Specifics for KSTL: Just some scattered diurnal cumulus clouds this afternoon at 4000-6000 feet, then mid level clouds will move through STL late tonight and Sunday morning. Strong and gusty w-nwly surface winds will diminish early this evening and back around to a southwest direction this evening, and a southerly direction by early Sunday morning. The surface wind will veer around to a w-swly direction by late Sunday afternoon after the passage of a weak surface trough. GKS && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
654 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2014 .SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2014 Another chilly fall day expected with well below average temperatures and gusty WNW winds as the region remains locked in deep cyclonic flow. Probably the biggest item of concern is the amount of cloud cover today. Current trajectory of the thicker stratus across eastern MN/northeast IA would be across northern/central Illinois. Model low level RH progs suggest some diurnal cu across the northeast quarter of the CWA, with the RAP more agressive with both coverage and also bringing the cu further southeast into eastern MO. I have given some weight to the RAP and have bumped up the sky coverage from the previous forecast. Glass .LONG TERM: (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2014 A cold night on tap as the weak surface ridge now centered through the high Plains slides across the area and results in gradually backing surface winds. Warm advection aloft will get underway and there will be an increase in mid/high clouds overnight in advance of the next upstream NW flow disturbance. Just how low the temperatures get tonight will be strongly based on the arrival of the clouds. The main thrust of these looks through central and northeast MO, while southern sections of the CWA will remain void of clouds longer. I have mentioned patchy frost across the eastern Ozarks into portions of southwest IL with this in mind, and due to topography-drainage and lighter winds where I have mins in the mid 30s. Sunday into Tuesday the forecast is a bit tricky thanks to a series of NW flow disturbances traversing the region and associated weak surface boundaries. The first of these on Sunday is accompanied by a weak surface low/trof and trailing cold front with good low level warm advection ahead of it. High temperatures should be quite a bit warmer as a result. Some of the guidance is generating light and spotty QPF with the ECMWF the most agressive. After collaboration with neighboring offices, will hold off introducing any pops and let the next shift get a fresher look. This initial boundary then washes out with yet another disturbance and front forecast to impact the area late Sunday night and into Monday. This system will have a bit better moisture (albiet still limited) and steep lapse rates to yield weak instability, thus I have added the mention of thunder across the southeast half of the CWA on Monday afternoon. Tuesday looks largely dry and warmer with average to above average temperatures continuing into Thursday. Confidence in the forecast diminishes Thursday into Friday with the GFS and ECMWF and ensemble members exhibiting some rather large differences. Glass && .AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning) Issued at 653 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2014 Forecast area remains in strong cyclonic flow. Some LLWS early this morning to diminish by 15z as the winds mix down to the surface. Winds to persist from the west with gusts to near 25kts at times. As for cigs, to remain vfr with best chances of broken cigs at KUIN, but scattered elsewhere. Winds to diminish towards sunset and skies to clear out. Surface ridge to move in late tonight with winds backing to the south, but remaining light. Will see mid cloud deck move in ahead of next weather system. Specifics for KSTL: Forecast area remains in strong cyclonic flow. Some LLWS early this morning to diminish by 15z as the winds mix down to the surface. Winds to persist from the west with gusts to near 25kts at times. As for cigs, to remain scattered over metro area. Winds to diminish by 00z Sunday and skies to clear out. Surface ridge to move in late tonight with winds backing to the south by 10z Sunday, but remaining light. Will see mid cloud deck move in ahead of next weather system. Byrd && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
333 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2014 .SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2014 Another chilly fall day expected with well below average temperatures and gusty WNW winds as the region remains locked in deep cyclonic flow. Probably the biggest item of concern is the amount of cloud cover today. Current trajectory of the thicker stratus across eastern MN/northeast IA would be across northern/central Illinois. Model low level RH progs suggest some diurnal cu across the northeast quarter of the CWA, with the RAP more agressive with both coverage and also bringing the cu further southeast into eastern MO. I have given some weight to the RAP and have bumped up the sky coverage from the previous forecast. Glass .LONG TERM: (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2014 A cold night on tap as the weak surface ridge now centered through the high Plains slides across the area and results in gradually backing surface winds. Warm advection aloft will get underway and there will be an increase in mid/high clouds overnight in advance of the next upstream NW flow disturbance. Just how low the temperatures get tonight will be strongly based on the arrival of the clouds. The main thrust of these looks through central and northeast MO, while southern sections of the CWA will remain void of clouds longer. I have mentioned patchy frost across the eastern Ozarks into portions of southwest IL with this in mind, and due to topography-drainage and lighter winds where I have mins in the mid 30s. Sunday into Tuesday the forecast is a bit tricky thanks to a series of NW flow disturbances traversing the region and associated weak surface boundaries. The first of these on Sunday is accompanied by a weak surface low/trof and trailing cold front with good low level warm advection ahead of it. High temperatures should be quite a bit warmer as a result. Some of the guidance is generating light and spotty QPF with the ECMWF the most agressive. After collaboration with neighboring offices, will hold off introducing any pops and let the next shift get a fresher look. This initial boundary then washes out with yet another disturbance and front forecast to impact the area late Sunday night and into Monday. This system will have a bit better moisture (albiet still limited) and steep lapse rates to yield weak instability, thus I have added the mention of thunder across the southeast half of the CWA on Monday afternoon. Tuesday looks largely dry and warmer with average to above average temperatures continuing into Thursday. Confidence in the forecast diminishes Thursday into Friday with the GFS and ECMWF and ensemble members exhibiting some rather large differences. Glass && .AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2014 VFR flight conditions and west-northwest flow will continue to prevail. Scattered to broken clouds around 6,000 FT will continue to move across the area through the remainder of the night and into Saturday. Low level wind shear conditions will persist with northwest wind increasing from around 5 to 8 kts at the surface to around 30kts at 1,000 FT or just slightly lower. Wind shear conditions should subside Saturday morning after sunrise when wind will again pick up to around 12 to 14 kts with gusts to 20 to 25 kts. Wind gusts will diminish during the late afternoon. Specifics for KSTL: VFR flight conditions and west-northwest flow will continue to prevail. Expect primarily scattered clouds around 6,000 ft for the rest of the night, but a broken ceiling will occasionally develop. Low level wind shear conditions will persist with northwest wind increasing from around 5 to 8 kts at the surface to around 30kts at 1,000 FT or just slightly lower. Wind shear conditions should subside Saturday morning after sunrise when wind will again pick up to around 12 to 14 kts with gusts to 20 to 25 kts. Wind gusts will diminish during the late afternoon. Carney && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
940 AM MDT SAT OCT 4 2014 .UPDATE... STARTING OFF THE DAY WINDY AND CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA. THESE ELEMENTS HAVE RESULTED IN A WARM START TO THE DAY AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER WESTERN FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO DECREASE SOME THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHWESTERLY JET DRAGS A POCKET OF DRIER AIR ALOFT OVER THE AREA...SO TWEAKED FORECAST CLOUD COVER DOWN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE THE DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. ENOUGH JET DYNAMICS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA...TO TRY AND DEVELOP AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER HERE AND THERE BUT DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THIS MAINLY VIRGA SO KEPT DRY FORECAST IN TACT. CHAMBERS && .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN... THE WEEKEND WILL BE MILD AND BREEZY TO WINDY BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TODAY...WE EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME LOWER 70S F IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT WHERE MIXING WILL BE MOST EFFICIENT. THE 00 UTC BIAS-CORRECTED...MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SERVED AS AN INITIAL BASIS FOR TODAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...BUT WE THEN WEIGHTED THE FINAL NUMBERS A BIT TOWARD THE 00 UTC GFS MOS /MAV/ SINCE THAT GUIDANCE OFTEN DOES WELL ON THE HIGH PLAINS WITH NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS. PLUS...WE DID HAVE A BIT OF A COOL BIAS ON FRI...ALTHOUGH A GREATER AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE PRESENT TODAY. WE DIDN/T ADD ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST ANYWHERE WITH NO REAL STRONG FORCING OTHER THAN WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...BUT WE SHOULD NOTE THAT SOME OVERNIGHT HRRR RUNS HAVE CALLED FOR SOME SHOWERS IN SOUTHEASTERN MT DURING THE DAY. FINALLY...IT WILL BE WINDY /MAINLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY/ WITH 30-35 KT WINDS SEEN NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM LIVINGSTON TO BILLINGS AND SHERIDAN TO GO WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. THAT SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR SOME GUSTS TO 30 OR 35 MPH IN THOSE AREAS AT TIMES. TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO WRITE HOME ABOUT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S F IN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS. WE SERIOUSLY THOUGHT ABOUT ADDING LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE BROADUS... MILES CITY AND HYSHAM AREAS AS JET-STREAK-AIDED FORCING INCREASES. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT VERY SATURATED ALOFT AND THERE/S NOT MUCH STATISTICAL SUPPORT FOR POPS...SO WE LEFT A DRY FORECAST. SUN...WE HAVE SOME LOW SHOWER CHANCES IN SOUTHEASTERN MT SINCE THE AREA WILL BE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN INTENSIFYING JET STREAK AT 300 MB. THE SHOWER CHANCES PUSH EAST WITH THE JET STREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALSO ENABLE AN ENVIRONMENT WHICH FAVORS GUSTY WINDS OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT ON ITS SUBSIDENT RIGHT EXIT ZONE. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE WELL INTO THE 60S F ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY. SCHULTZ .LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI... DESPITE BASIC 500MB PATTERN SIMILARITIES...MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SO LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED REGARDING TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION. OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS LARGE RIDGE OVER WEST COAST WITH LARGE CLOSED HUDSON BAY LOW. THIS PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER A MILD/WARM ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW. SO WE CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR A SEASONABLY WARM DAY...THOUGH BREEZY IN THE EAST. BIG DIFFERENCES APPEAR BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS ECMWF BACKS DOORS A STRONG SURFACE FRONT INTO THE AREA AND PRODUCES QPF ALONG A BAROCLINIC BAND. THE GFS EVENTUALLY BACKDOORS A FRONT IN...BUT HAS IT DRY AND WEAK...AND YET BOTH MODELS HAVE SIMILAR POSITIONS OF JET STREAM IN THE DAKOTAS. MY FEELING IS THE ECMWF IS OVERDOING QPF AS DISTANT POSITION OF JET SHOULD NOT OFFER MUCH SUPPORT TO SURFACE. THAT SAID...THE LOW POPS IN THE EAST I INHERITED FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK REASONABLE...BUT I WILL REMOVE THE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WHERE WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY PREVENT MUCH SURFACE CONVERGENCE NOR LIFT/MOISTURE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE THEIR DIFFERENCES INTO WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH THE ECMWF MORE AGGRESSIVE WEST WITH THE POSITION OF THE COOLER AIR. 700MB FLOW LOOKS PRETTY WESTERLY...SO AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS...BUT KNOW BETTER THAN TO COMPLETELY THROW THIS SOLUTION OUT. THEREFORE...WILL USE A BLEND AT MIDWEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WORKING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA. ECMWF FINALLY DRIES THINGS OUT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS 500MB HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH. GFS MAINTAINS DRY NW FLOW. WILL HAVE LATTER PART OF FRIDAY DRY AND BLEND TEMPS. DIFFERENCES FOR DAY 8 TO WIDE TO GUESS AT...JUST USING BLEND WITH CLIMO. BT && .AVIATION... ANTICIPATE A DIURNALLY DRIVEN TREND OF WIND TODAY UNDER MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WESTERLY WIND WILL INCREASE IN MOST AREAS BY 17Z REACHING 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS BEFORE DECREASING AGAIN AROUND 02Z. BT && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 072 049/068 046/072 049/071 046/061 039/048 033/049 0/N 11/B 00/U 11/U 11/B 22/W 21/B LVM 069 042/068 041/071 044/070 044/065 036/054 031/057 0/N 11/B 00/U 00/U 12/W 22/W 22/W HDN 071 048/069 044/072 046/071 043/063 039/052 035/052 0/N 11/N 10/U 12/W 21/B 22/W 22/W MLS 068 048/066 042/069 048/065 042/059 037/049 033/050 1/N 12/W 00/B 12/W 21/B 11/B 11/B 4BQ 067 046/064 041/067 046/067 043/062 038/047 032/049 0/N 12/W 00/B 12/W 21/B 22/W 12/W BHK 062 044/059 040/062 043/061 038/055 034/046 026/046 1/B 12/W 11/N 12/W 22/W 11/B 11/B SHR 068 045/066 042/070 044/070 044/067 039/050 031/050 0/N 11/N 00/U 01/U 11/B 23/W 22/W && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
939 AM MDT SAT OCT 4 2014 .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY... UPDATE... SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER THIS MORNING AND POPS WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THESE OBSERVATIONS. RECENT HRRR RUNS SEEM TO CAPTURE THIS ACTIVITY WELL AND SO THIS GUIDANCE WAS LARGELY USED TO ADJUST POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO MATCH UP WITH NEAR TERM EXPECTATIONS. MESOSCALE DETAIL WAS ADDED TO THE WIND GRIDS AS WELL. WILL NEED TO WATCH AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE WEST END OF FORT PECK LAKE...THOUGH UNSURE IF THREE CONSECUTIVE HOURS OF SUSTAINED 20 MPH WILL BE MET. TOMORROW LOOKS BETTER FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. FINAL CHANGES THIS MORNING INCLUDED TWEAKS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER BASED UPON SATELLITE IMAGERY. MALIAWCO PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD REVEAL AN AMPLIFIED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. A STRONG UPPER-LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER WISCONSIN AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS SPREADING ITS INFLUENCE OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN STATES WHILE AN ELONGATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN STATES. THIS PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA IN SOME VARIATION OF A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING INFLUENCE FROM THE WEST. A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS LINED UP ROUGHLY ALONG A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES...CLIPPING OUR SW ZONES. THIS DELINEATES THE WARM AIR IN THE SW FROM THE COLDER AIR IN THE NE. EXPECT THIS TO TURN INTO AN ACTUAL WARM FRONT LATER TODAY...WHICH COULD USHER IN SOME BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY APPROACH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AFTER LOOKING THROUGH ALL THE MODELS...IT SEEMS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THEM ADVERTISE WINDS SLIGHTLY BELOW CRITERIA AND ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS. CHOSE TO NOT GO WITH A LAKE WIND ADVISORY TODAY IN FAVOR OF ANTICIPATING A MORE CERTAIN ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY. BUT OF COURSE...TODAY STILL WARRANTS A CLOSE WATCH FOR MID-DAY AND AFTERNOON WINDS NEAR THE LAKE. SYNOPTIC SCALE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ANY EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THIS FLOW WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST AND MAY ONLY CLIP OUR NE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY COMFORTABLE AUTUMN WEEKEND FOR MOST LOCATIONS. BMICKELSON .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK WITH A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A TROUGH TO THE EAST. WEAK SHORTWAVES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THEN...THE MODELS DISAGREE WITH NEXT WEEKEND AS THE GFS BUILDS THE RIDGE ON THE PACIFIC COAST AT THE SAME TIME THAT THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INLAND TOWARDS MONTANA. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORRESTER && .AVIATION... FLIGHT CONDITIONS...VFR WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING. && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
326 AM MDT SAT OCT 4 2014 .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN... THE WEEKEND WILL BE MILD AND BREEZY TO WINDY BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TODAY...WE EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME LOWER 70S F IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT WHERE MIXING WILL BE MOST EFFICIENT. THE 00 UTC BIAS-CORRECTED...MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SERVED AS AN INITIAL BASIS FOR TODAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...BUT WE THEN WEIGHTED THE FINAL NUMBERS A BIT TOWARD THE 00 UTC GFS MOS /MAV/ SINCE THAT GUIDANCE OFTEN DOES WELL ON THE HIGH PLAINS WITH NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS. PLUS...WE DID HAVE A BIT OF A COOL BIAS ON FRI...ALTHOUGH A GREATER AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE PRESENT TODAY. WE DIDN/T ADD ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST ANYWHERE WITH NO REAL STRONG FORCING OTHER THAN WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...BUT WE SHOULD NOTE THAT SOME OVERNIGHT HRRR RUNS HAVE CALLED FOR SOME SHOWERS IN SOUTHEASTERN MT DURING THE DAY. FINALLY...IT WILL BE WINDY /MAINLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY/ WITH 30-35 KT WINDS SEEN NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM LIVINGSTON TO BILLINGS AND SHERIDAN TO GO WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. THAT SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR SOME GUSTS TO 30 OR 35 MPH IN THOSE AREAS AT TIMES. TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO WRITE HOME ABOUT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S F IN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS. WE SERIOUSLY THOUGHT ABOUT ADDING LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE BROADUS... MILES CITY AND HYSHAM AREAS AS JET-STREAK-AIDED FORCING INCREASES. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT VERY SATURATED ALOFT AND THERE/S NOT MUCH STATISTICAL SUPPORT FOR POPS...SO WE LEFT A DRY FORECAST. SUN...WE HAVE SOME LOW SHOWER CHANCES IN SOUTHEASTERN MT SINCE THE AREA WILL BE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN INTENSIFYING JET STREAK AT 300 MB. THE SHOWER CHANCES PUSH EAST WITH THE JET STREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALSO ENABLE AN ENVIRONMENT WHICH FAVORS GUSTY WINDS OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT ON ITS SUBSIDENT RIGHT EXIT ZONE. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE WELL INTO THE 60S F ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY. SCHULTZ .LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI... DESPITE BASIC 500MB PATTERN SIMILARITIES...MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SO LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED REGARDING TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION. OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS LARGE RIDGE OVER WEST COAST WITH LARGE CLOSED HUDSON BAY LOW. THIS PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER A MILD/WARM ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW. SO WE CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR A SEASONABLY WARM DAY...THOUGH BREEZY IN THE EAST. BIG DIFFERENCES APPEAR BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS ECMWF BACKS DOORS A STRONG SURFACE FRONT INTO THE AREA AND PRODUCES QPF ALONG A BAROCLINIC BAND. THE GFS EVENTUALLY BACKDOORS A FRONT IN...BUT HAS IT DRY AND WEAK...AND YET BOTH MODELS HAVE SIMILAR POSITIONS OF JET STREAM IN THE DAKOTAS. MY FEELING IS THE ECMWF IS OVERDOING QPF AS DISTANT POSITION OF JET SHOULD NOT OFFER MUCH SUPPORT TO SURFACE. THAT SAID...THE LOW POPS IN THE EAST I INHERITED FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK REASONABLE...BUT I WILL REMOVE THE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WHERE WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY PREVENT MUCH SURFACE CONVERGENCE NOR LIFT/MOISTURE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE THEIR DIFFERENCES INTO WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH THE ECMWF MORE AGGRESSIVE WEST WITH THE POSITION OF THE COOLER AIR. 700MB FLOW LOOKS PRETTY WESTERLY...SO AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS...BUT KNOW BETTER THAN TO COMPLETELY THROW THIS SOLUTION OUT. THEREFORE...WILL USE A BLEND AT MIDWEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WORKING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA. ECMWF FINALLY DRIES THINGS OUT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS 500MB HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH. GFS MAINTAINS DRY NW FLOW. WILL HAVE LATTER PART OF FRIDAY DRY AND BLEND TEMPS. DIFFERENCES FOR DAY 8 TOO WIDE TO GUESS AT...JUST USING BLEND WITH CLIMO. BT && .AVIATION... ANTICIPATE A DIURNALLY DRIVEN TREND OF WIND TODAY UNDER MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WESTERLY WIND WILL INCREASE IN MOST AREAS BY 17Z REACHING 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS BEFORE DECREASING AGAIN AROUND 02Z. BT && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 072 049/068 046/072 049/071 046/061 039/048 033/049 0/N 11/B 00/U 11/U 11/B 22/W 21/B LVM 069 042/068 041/071 044/070 044/065 036/054 031/057 0/N 11/B 00/U 00/U 12/W 22/W 22/W HDN 071 048/069 044/072 046/071 043/063 039/052 035/052 0/N 11/N 10/U 12/W 21/B 22/W 22/W MLS 068 048/066 042/069 048/065 042/059 037/049 033/050 1/N 12/W 00/B 12/W 21/B 11/B 11/B 4BQ 067 046/064 041/067 046/067 043/062 038/047 032/049 0/N 12/W 00/B 12/W 21/B 22/W 12/W BHK 062 044/059 040/062 043/061 038/055 034/046 026/046 1/E 12/W 11/N 12/W 22/W 11/B 11/B SHR 068 045/066 042/070 044/070 044/067 039/050 031/050 0/N 11/N 00/U 01/U 11/B 23/W 22/W && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
151 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS... RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL DURING THE DAY. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 1045 PM EDT UPDATE... DECIDED TO DECREASE POPS IN NEAR TERM AS RADAR TRENDS ARE JUST NOT IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THAT BEING SAID COVERAGE MAY STILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING THUS DECIDED TO LEAVE POPS THE SAME FOR AFTER 06Z. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST HOLDS. PREVIOUS FORECAST... 700 PM EDT UPDATE... PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO PUSH INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. COVERAGE OVERALL LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD FILL IN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND AN INCH AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THUS... WE COULD SEE A STEADY RAIN TONIGHT. DO NOT SEE FLOODING BEING AN ISSUE TONIGHT AS WE HAVE BEEN DRY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE MSLP TIGHTENS ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF OHIO. STILL EXPECT THE FROPA TO BE AFTER 12Z SATURDAY MORNING. UPDATED TEMPS AND WINDS TO MATCH CURRENT OBS ACROSS THE CWA. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PLEASE READ THE DISCUSSION BELOW. PREVIOUS FORECAST... 205 PM UPDATE... SFC LOPRES SITTING NORTH OF LK MICHIGAN WITH CDFNT EXTNDG SWRD ALONG THE IN/OH BORDER AND IS ON THE MV EAST. RAIN HAS DVLPD JUST AHD OF SFC FNT AND HAS NOW MADE IT INTO WRN PA. CURRENT MVMNT HAS IT EXPECTED TO MV INTO STEUBEN CNTY ARND 21Z. HOWEVER, LATEST HRRR IS INDICATING PCPN ERODING AS IT HEADS EAST AND NOT SPREADING INTO WRN SXNS UNTIL 00Z. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE A WET NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR THE CWA AS SRLY FLOW FM THE GOM HAS WORKED ITS WAY NORTH WITH AN AREA OF 1.5+ INCHES OF PW VALUES INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LKS. EXPECT THAT THIS AREA OF MOISTURE WL MV QUICKLY THRU THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MODERATE SHOWERS EXPECTED AT TIMES. CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS K VALUES CLIMB ABV 30 HWVR MID-LVL LAPSE RATES RMN PUNY BARELY CLIMBING TO 6 C/KM. THUS HV RMVD SLGT CHC THUNDER FM THE GRIDS AS AM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH POTENTIAL. THINK THAT WIDESPREAD RAIN WL BE IN AND OUT WITHIN A 3-HR PERIOD OF TIME. BACK EDGE HAS MADE IT INTO ERN OHIO AND GIVEN SPEED OF SYSTEM HV SPED UP TIMING ON LINE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS MVG INTO FINGER LKS CNTYS BY MIDNIGHT AND OUT OF WRN CATS BY 06Z. LINGERING SHOWERS WL RMN POSSIBLE BHND MAIN TROF THEREFORE HV RETAINED SCT-LKLY POPS THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT HRS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... 240 PM UPDATE... FROPA OCCURS SAT MRNG LVG COOL AIR IN ITS WAKE AS H8 TEMPS FALL BLO 0C FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WL SET THE STAGE FOR LK EFFECT SHOWERS, HWVR WITH FLOW BEING FM THE SW THRU THE END OF THE SHORT TERM WL LKLY SEE ONLY CLDS SKIRTING THRU NRN ZONES. TEMPS WL RMN STEADY OR FALL DRG THE DAY ON SATURDAY IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH EARLY HIGHS IN THE U50S/NR 60 THEN FALLING DRG THE DAY, ESPECIALLY FOR NY CNTYS. IF SKIES CAN CLR OUT SAT NGT, EXPECT MINS TO DIP INTO THE M30S. HWVR CURRENT GROWING AREAS (FINGER LKS/WYOMING AND LACKAWANNA VLYS) WL LKLY RMN IN THE U30S TO PREVENT ANY FROST SUN MRNG. THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON CLDS THO. EXPECT TEMPS THRU THE END OF THE SHORT TERM TO APPCH SEASONAL VALUES AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM DIVING SOUTH THRU CANADA. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... 3 PM FRI UPDATE... OVERALL...AN UNSETTLED PD IS IN STORE...AS A DEEP ERN CANADIAN/CONUS TROUGH ONLY SLOWLY RELAXES ITS GRIP NEXT WEEK. ONE S/WV ROTATING ARND THE SERN QUADRANT OF THE NRN GREAT LAKES UPR LOW WILL BRING A GOOD CHC OF SHWRS TUE INTO WED...WITH A SFC FRNT ULTIMATELY SWEEPING THIS PCPN OFF THE COAST BY WED NGT. AFTER A PROBABLE LULL ON THU WITH BRIEF S/WV RIDGING ALOFT...THE NEXT SIG MID-LVL WV...ALG WITH A DVLPG E-W FRNTL ZN...LOOKS TO IMPACT NY/PA TWDS THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A RENEWED CHC OF SHWRS. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR A BIT ABV CLIMO FOR EARLY OCT...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A NEGATIVE TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 13Z-15Z. IN GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. FROM APPROXIMATELY 09Z-13Z, CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE LOW MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AT KITH/KBGM. AFTER FROPA LIGHT SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN LOW LEVEL DRYING WILL LEAD TO VFR CIGS. OVERNIGHT UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ANY LAKE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF TERMINALS WITH JUST SCATTERED STRATO CU OR SKC. S/SE WINDS AT 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN LIGHT SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY TO MON...MAINLY VFR. MON NGT INTO WED...SHRA WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY TUE/TUE NGT. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PVN NEAR TERM...KAH/PVN SHORT TERM...PVN LONG TERM...MLJ AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1148 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014 ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADD A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN BACK TOWARD THE GRAND FORKS AREA AS RADAR SHOWS A LITTLE BAND OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP (PROBABLY DRIZZLE) MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM ROSEAU-TVF TOWARD THE RED RIVER. OTHEWISE THE WRN CLOUD AREA FROM BOTTINEAU THRU DVL TO JAMESTOWN CONTINUES TO ERODE AND LAST FEW SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE CLEARING CONTINUING. SO WITH THAT IN MIND PRETTY GOOD CHANCE FAR WEST WILL DROP LATER TONIGHT INTO THE FREEZE RANGE. FARTHER EAST...SOME CLEARING TRIED TO MAKE IT TO THE RED RIVER BUT CLOUD BAND DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE RRV PROPER SHOULD KEEP GFK-FAR IN THE CLOUDS TONIGHT AND THUS WARMER TEMPS. EASTERN FCST AREA IN CLOUDS AND SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP...MOSTLY -RA. THE SNOW AREA WITH HEAVIER PRECIP HAS NOW EXITED THE REGION INTO ECNTRL MN OR NW WI. UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014 LET WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AS WINDS SAFELY BELOW ADVSIORY LEVELS. OTHERWISE COMPOSITE CANADIAN/US RADARS SHOW MAIN BAND OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL DROPPING SOUTH FAIRLY QUICKLY AND NOW CENTERED AROUND BEMIDJI-BAGLEY-PARK RAPIDS REGION. THIS WILL PRODUCE QUICK COATING TO 1 INCH AS TEMPS FALL TO NEAR 32F AS THIS MODERATE SNOW FALLS. TEMPS UPSTREAM CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AS SNOW ENDS AND RETURNS TO A LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. THIS BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW WILL EXIT THE FCST AREA 03Z PERIOD...LEAVING JUST LIGHT PRECIP IN THE FAR EASTERN FCST AREA THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW. OTHER ISSUE IS DEGREE OF CLOUD CLEARING IN ERN ND/RRV. LARGE HOLE IN THE CLOUDS ON WESTERN EDGE OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY FROM WEST OF PORTAGE MANITOBA TO JUST WEST OF GFK. BAND OF CLOUDS WEST OF THIS BACK THRU DVL-MOT-JMS. HRRR INSISTS THE CLOUDS OVER ERN ND WILL GO AWAY TONIGHT AND BRING CLEARING INTO THE RRV QUITE EARLY TONIGHT. UNSURE OF THIS BUT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED AS EARLIER THAN EXPECTED CLEARING MAY RESULT IN A FEW DEGREES COLDER TEMPS IN THE IMMEDIATE RRV. DID REMOVE FROST WORDING FROM GRIDS AS THERE WILL NOT BE FROST WITH THE WIND AT LEAST HOLDING UP SOME TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014 THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE SNOW THREAT THIS EVENING IN NW MN...THEN MORE PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH NO PREFERENCE TODAY. FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIE DOWN THIS EVENING BUT STILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A BAND OF SNOW MOVING INTO NW MN...WITH SOME AREAS FROM NEAR ROSEAU INTO THE BEMIDJI AREA GETTING AN INCH...PERHAPS UP TO 2 ON GRASSY SURFACES. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 30S HERE. THE FAR WEST WILL HAVE THE CHANCE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZE WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30...SO WILL ISSUE THE FREEZE WARNING HERE. FOR AREAS IN THE VALLEY...EXPECT MORE CLOUDS TO REMAIN WITH WINDS HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND 33...SO NOT EXPECTING A FREEZE HERE. IF THIS AREA CLEARS AT ALL AND WINDS DECOUPLE SOME...THEN THE FREEZE WARNING WOULD NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO THE EAST. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT A DRY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR ALL AREAS...AND IT COULD BECOME BREEZY BUT WINDS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS TODAY. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014 FOR SUNDAY...EXPECT A DRY AND COOL DAY...ALBEIT A BIT WARMER FROM SATURDAYS READINGS. ON MONDAY..AN UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THERE SHOULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING...WITH SOME COLD RAIN BY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...AND MAY BE EVEN COLDER IF THERE IS MORE PRECIP AROUND THAN MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN CHALLENGE AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD IS STILL THE EVOLUTION OF A BROAD VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INITIALLY OVER ONTARIO. THIS COMPLEX SHOULD HAVE RETROGRADED OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TIME FRAME...AND BE IN THE PROCESS OF A MIGRATION TO THE EAST AS THE EXTENDED PACKAGE BEGINS. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY THIS WILL OCCUR AS MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY GFS...IS OFTEN TOO SWIFT IN MOVING SYSTEMS PROGRESSIVELY FROM WEST TO EAST. AS THE FLOW DE-AMPLIFIES SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CREEPING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE "MORE SEASONAL" 50S BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014 VFR CIGS WILL REMAIN AT GFK-FAR TONIGHT AND LIKELY INTO MUCH OF FRIDAY DAYTIME AS SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS AND LINGERING 850 MB MOISTURE. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 12 TO 25 KTS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY. TVF/BJI AREA IN MVFR CIGS AND THIS SHOULD LINGER THRU DAYBREAK BEFORE BASES RISE SOME FRIDAY DAYTIME. DVL REGION WILL SEE SCATTERING OF VFR CLOUDS AND GENERALLY SCATTERED CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH NORTH WINDS A TAD LIGHTER IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015- 024-026-028-038-049-052-054. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RIDDLE SHORT TERM...DK LONG TERM...WJB/DK AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1002 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014 .UPDATE... UPDATE TO PRECIP/WEATHER... && .DISCUSSION... DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER HAS INCREASED A SKOSH MORE ACROSS NRN OK THIS EVENING... NOW THAT THE ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS INTERACTED WITH A MORE SUPPORTIVE MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NRN OK. GIVEN THE UPTICK IN DEVELOPMENT AND OVERALL TRACK... INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER FOR THE OKC METRO OVERNIGHT. THE 01Z RAP APPEARS TO HAVE AN OKAY HANDLE ON DEVELOPMENT... WITH AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TMRW MORNING AS THE SFC LOW LINGERS OVER WEST TX... WITH AN INCREASING SFC TROUGH EXTENDING INTO SERN OK. AS THE SFC OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH S/SE TONIGHT... IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO AN OVERALL BETTER ENVIRONMENT... INCREASING SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OK... AND PORTIONS OF NRN TX. JTK && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014/ AVIATION... 06/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING AT AND NEAR KPNC AS ACTIVITY OVER KANSAS SPREADS SOUTHEAST WITH JET STREAK - S/WV TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR TERMINALS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014/ UPDATE... UPDATE TO PRECIP/WX... DISCUSSION... INTERESTING FORECAST THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK H500 SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH. CURRENTLY... ACROSS KANSAS... AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE S/SE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ROOTED ALONG A WEAK ISENTROPIC RESPONSE... SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 310 TO 315K... THE LOCATION OF THE BEST MOISTURE WITHIN THE MID LEVELS. GIVEN 17Z SOUNDING FROM LAMONT (LMN) IN NRN OK... THE LL/BL REMAINS NOTICABLE DRY... AND COMPARED TO SFC OBS... THE RETURNS VISIBLE ON RADAR ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK ARE LIKELY REPRESENTATIVE OF VIRGA. HOWEVER... AS THE WAVE PROGRESSES S/SE THROUGH THE EVENING... WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL GIVEN COLD TEMPS ALOFT. FURTHER SOUTH... ALONG THE RED RIVER/TEXOMA REGION OF SOUTH CENTRAL OK/WRN N TX. DECENT WAA HAS CONTINUED TO TRANSPORT A MODEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE LL/BL. COMBINED WITH A WEAK SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE LLANO ESTACADO/CAPROCK IN WEST TX... THERE REMAINS ENOUGH FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE KS/NRN OK ACTIVITY. AT THE MOMENT... NOT OVERLY CONVINCED OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP IN CENTRAL OK/THE METRO. HOWEVER... IF YOU ALLOW ME TO HEDGE A BIT... GIVEN THE MOISTURE PROFILE/LIFT... WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME DRIZZLE DEVELOPED LATE TONIGHT... WITH BEST CHANCES EAST OF I-35. JTK PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 143 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014/ DISCUSSION... THE VERY WEAK FRONT THAT IS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA TODAY WILL LIE OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT WHEN A FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES. THESE FEATURES WILL INTERSECT GREATER MOISTURE IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND GIVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THROUGH MID-WEEK VERY HOT WEATHER WILL QUICKLY RETURN. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S. BEGINNING WEDNESDAY THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES WILL BECOME STRONGER OVER OKLAHOMA AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. LONGER-TERM MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO AGREE ON THE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY TIME FRAME FOR THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OKLAHOMA. A RE-PHASING OF THE TWO BRANCHES OF THE WESTERLIES IS EXPECTED IN THE WEEKEND WHEN RAIN CHANCES END AND COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 57 87 60 92 / 20 10 10 0 HOBART OK 55 88 59 92 / 10 10 10 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 61 89 64 94 / 20 10 10 0 GAGE OK 46 88 52 90 / 10 0 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 51 83 55 91 / 20 10 10 0 DURANT OK 63 85 65 91 / 30 20 10 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 04/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
159 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN REMAIN PARKED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW COLD DAYS ARE IN STORE THIS WEEKEND. THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY LIFT OUT BY MID WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK TO NORMALS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM KBFD SOUTH TO KJST AT 05Z IS EVIDENT AS ENHANCED LINEAR FEATURE IN RADAR REFLECTIVITY. AHEAD OF THE CDFRONT WIDESPREAD LGT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ALONG AXIS OF LL JET/PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS OVR EASTERN PA. LATEST RAP OUTPUT SUGGESTS CDFRONT WILL EXIT THE EASTERN COUNTIES BTWN 10Z-11Z. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AT 05Z SHOWS A FAIR AMT OF POST-FRONTAL LGT RAIN FALLING ACROSS OHIO AND WESTERN PA. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU EARLY THIS MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT. FURTHER EAST...DOWNSLOPING EAST WIND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN LITTLE CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT FROM KUNV AND KAOO EASTWARD. A LOOK AT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGEST MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES...TO ARND 60F EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE. FROPA IS AT OR JUST BEFORE 12Z ACROSS THE FAR EAST. A DRY AND MUCH COOLER SATURDAY IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT. COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL LIKELY YIELD A GOOD DEAL OF STRATOCU AND EVEN SCT SHRA ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES/CENTRAL MTNS. A WSW BLYR FLOW SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS NORTH OF THE BORDER. FARTHER EAST...DOWNSLOPING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD YIELD PT-MOSUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. TEMPS WILL MOVE UP ONLY A LITTLE...AND MAY FALL JUST A FEW DEGS AT FIRST...ESP UNDER THE CLOUDS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE BIG QUESTION IN THE MID TERM IS LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION AND A RIDGE IS BUILDING IN THE MID LEVEL. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASING STABLE ATMOSPHERE AND A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD NOT PASS OVR THE REGION SO THOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BE IDEAL FOR RAD COOLING...CAN/T RULE OUT FROST/FREEZE ISSUES SAT NIGHT. ESPECIALLY OVR THE ALLEGHENIES AS 850 MB TEMPS COULD BE IN THE 0 TO -5 CELSIUS RANGE. DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD BE PERSISTANT OVERNIGHT...NOT ALLOWING FOR AN INVERSION OR COLD POOL TO FORM. THE BLYR FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM SW TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY...KEEPING LAKE EFFECT SHRA NORTH OF THE BORDER. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THRU BASE OF UPPER TROF COULD SUPPORT A FEW -SRHA ACROSS THE NW MTNS SUNDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THROUGH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. EXPECT A WARMING TREND AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY OUT AHEAD OF A DIGGING TROF THE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND OVER THE GRT LKS. THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CANADA SHOULD BE THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS APPEARS LIKELY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER TROF LIFTS THROUGH. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE REGION THOUGH TIMING AND STRENGTH UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN. MILDER AND MORE SETTLED WX APPEARS LIKELY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT AND FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS WITH FRONT JUST WEST OF THE OFFICE. NOT SEEING ANY THUNDER OR DAMAGING WINDS AT THIS POINT. 06Z TAFS SENT. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL PA TONIGHT. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN REMAIN PARKED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING NW PA AT 00Z IS SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH KBFD AROUND 04Z AND KMDT-KLNS ABOUT 10Z-12Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10-15 KTS THOUGH WINDS JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP WILL BE IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE /KEEPING MENTION OF LLWS IN THE TERMINALS/. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND REMAIN AT SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS NEAR THE SURFACE WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING ALOFT. CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR IS POSS EARLY AT KJST IF WINDS TURN PAST 180 DEGREES BEFORE FROPA. AS FAR AS PRECIP IS CONCERNED...FIRST AREA OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY WORK EASTWARD IMPACTING MAINLY EASTERN HALF OF CWA THIS EVE AND EARLY MORNING. A HEAVIER BAND OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY WITH FROPA...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS /ESPECIALLY WEST/. SAT WILL START OFF WITH WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR MOST QUICKLY IN THE LOWER SUSQ AS WESTERLY WINDS BRING DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WHICH WILL HELP DRY OUT LOWER LAYERS AND BRING IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE WEST/CENTRAL /EVEN WITH A BIT OF A DRY SLOT SLIDING THROUGH/ AND PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP LOWER CLOUDS LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING THROUGH MVFR BACK TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AT ALL LOCALES EXCEPT KJST-KBFD. SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS GET REINFORCED SAT NIGHT IN NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS FLOW TURNS MORE OFF OF LAKE ERIE. SHOULD SEE CIG REDUCTIONS AT KBFD AND MAYBE KJST...WHILE RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE SW SHOULD KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ELSEWHERE. OUTLOOK... SUN-MON...MVFR CIGS/SHRA PSBL NW...OTHERWISE VFR. TUE...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM W...SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSS N/W. WED...MVFR CIGS/SHRA PSBL NW...OTHERWISE VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
130 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN REMAIN PARKED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW COLD DAYS ARE IN STORE THIS WEEKEND. THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY LIFT OUT BY MID WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK TO NORMALS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM KBFD SOUTH TO KJST AT 05Z IS EVIDENT AS ENHANCED LINEAR FEATURE IN RADAR REFLECTIVITY. AHEAD OF THE CDFRONT WIDESPREAD LGT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ALONG AXIS OF LL JET/PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS OVR EASTERN PA. LATEST RAP OUTPUT SUGGESTS CDFRONT WILL EXIT THE EASTERN COUNTIES BTWN 10Z-11Z. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AT 05Z SHOWS A FAIR AMT OF POST-FRONTAL LGT RAIN FALLING ACROSS OHIO AND WESTERN PA. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU EARLY THIS MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT. FURTHER EAST...DOWNSLOPING EAST WIND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN LITTLE CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT FROM KUNV AND KAOO EASTWARD. A LOOK AT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGEST MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES...TO ARND 60F EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE. FROPA IS AT OR JUST BEFORE 12Z ACROSS THE FAR EAST. A DRY AND MUCH COOLER SATURDAY IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT. COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL LIKELY YIELD A GOOD DEAL OF STRATOCU AND EVEN SCT SHRA ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES/CENTRAL MTNS. A WSW BLYR FLOW SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS NORTH OF THE BORDER. FARTHER EAST...DOWNSLOPING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD YIELD PT-MOSUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. TEMPS WILL MOVE UP ONLY A LITTLE...AND MAY FALL JUST A FEW DEGS AT FIRST...ESP UNDER THE CLOUDS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE BIG QUESTION IN THE MID TERM IS LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION AND A RIDGE IS BUILDING IN THE MID LEVEL. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASING STABLE ATMOSPHERE AND A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD NOT PASS OVR THE REGION SO THOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BE IDEAL FOR RAD COOLING...CAN/T RULE OUT FROST/FREEZE ISSUES SAT NIGHT. ESPECIALLY OVR THE ALLEGHENIES AS 850 MB TEMPS COULD BE IN THE 0 TO -5 CELSIUS RANGE. DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD BE PERSISTANT OVERNIGHT...NOT ALLOWING FOR AN INVERSION OR COLD POOL TO FORM. THE BLYR FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM SW TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY...KEEPING LAKE EFFECT SHRA NORTH OF THE BORDER. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THRU BASE OF UPPER TROF COULD SUPPORT A FEW -SRHA ACROSS THE NW MTNS SUNDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THROUGH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. EXPECT A WARMING TREND AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY OUT AHEAD OF A DIGGING TROF THE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND OVER THE GRT LKS. THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CANADA SHOULD BE THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS APPEARS LIKELY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER TROF LIFTS THROUGH. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE REGION THOUGH TIMING AND STRENGTH UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN. MILDER AND MORE SETTLED WX APPEARS LIKELY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT AND FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. && .AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL PA TONIGHT. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN REMAIN PARKED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING NW PA AT 00Z IS SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH KBFD AROUND 04Z AND KMDT-KLNS ABOUT 10Z-12Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10-15 KTS THOUGH WINDS JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP WILL BE IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE /KEEPING MENTION OF LLWS IN THE TERMINALS/. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND REMAIN AT SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS NEAR THE SURFACE WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING ALOFT. CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR IS POSS EARLY AT KJST IF WINDS TURN PAST 180 DEGREES BEFORE FROPA. AS FAR AS PRECIP IS CONCERNED...FIRST AREA OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY WORK EASTWARD IMPACTING MAINLY EASTERN HALF OF CWA THIS EVE AND EARLY MORNING. A HEAVIER BAND OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY WITH FROPA...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS /ESPECIALLY WEST/. SAT WILL START OFF WITH WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR MOST QUICKLY IN THE LOWER SUSQ AS WESTERLY WINDS BRING DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WHICH WILL HELP DRY OUT LOWER LAYERS AND BRING IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE WEST/CENTRAL /EVEN WITH A BIT OF A DRY SLOT SLIDING THROUGH/ AND PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP LOWER CLOUDS LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING THROUGH MVFR BACK TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AT ALL LOCALES EXCEPT KJST-KBFD. SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS GET REINFORCED SAT NIGHT IN NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS FLOW TURNS MORE OFF OF LAKE ERIE. SHOULD SEE CIG REDUCTIONS AT KBFD AND MAYBE KJST...WHILE RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE SW SHOULD KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ELSEWHERE. OUTLOOK... SUN-MON...MVFR CIGS/SHRA PSBL NW...OTHERWISE VFR. TUE...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM W...SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSS N/W. WED...MVFR CIGS/SHRA PSBL NW...OTHERWISE VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
739 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014 .UPDATE... MINOR CHANGES TO EVENING SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES. && .DISCUSSION... A BIT LESS CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL FASTER THAN FORECAST THIS PAST HOUR. HAVE MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. FOR LATER TONIGHT...CURRENTLY WATCHING A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IN NEBRASKA/KANSAS. THE AFTERNOON HRRR MODEL HAD SHOWN CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY NOW...BUT SO FAR NOTHING...WHICH MAY INFLUENCE FORECAST POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE 00Z PACKAGE ANOTHER UPDATE MAY BE NEEDED. JAB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014/ UPDATE... UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. JCL && .DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014/ AS OF 3PM...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 70S AREAWIDE WITH A BRISK SOUTHWEST WIND AT THE SURFACE. DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY AS A RESULT WITH READINGS INCREASING CLOSER TO THE 50 DEGREE THRESHOLD. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WARM FRONT TO OUR IMMEDIATE EAST WITH A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI AND BACK THROUGH OKLAHOMA. ALOFT...A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN VIA WATER VAPOR SATELLITE NEAR NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE FEATURES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. IT APPEARS TO BE A WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE AREA FOR THE ENTIRE WORKWEEK. THE MID-SOUTH WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW AT LEAST A COUPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BL MOISTURE WILL RECOVER SUFFICIENTLY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND MOST OTHER PARAMETERS NEEDED FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN PLACE. A MID-LEVEL 50 KT JET STREAK ASSOC WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW 1000-1400 J/KG MLCAPE...250 M^2S^2 0-3 KM SRH...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM...AND BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KTS ALONG WITH GOOD TURNING OF THE HODOGRAPH. THE ONLY REAL LIMITING FACTORS APPEAR TO BE THE LACK OF BL MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AT LEAST A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND THE MAIN THREATS APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A TORNADO THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR IMMINENT AS LCL`S WILL BE QUITE HIGH AND WINDS WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENTLY BACKED AT THE SURFACE. WILL MAKE A MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HWO TO NEARLY COINCIDE WITH WHAT SPC`S CURRENT SLIGHT RISK AREA IS. .TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WELL AS KEEPING A HEALTHY CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT MORE ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY AND A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 80S. BY THURSDAY...MODELS NOW AGREE ON A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE MID- SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT NO SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND KEEP A CHANCE OF DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY BY SUNDAY...SO WENT WITH A BLEND THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AC3 && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE (06/00Z-07/00Z) VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD OUTSIDE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MID-MORNING MONDAY AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS LOWERING IN THE THUNDERSTORMS. ATTM IT APPEARS THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KJBR SO PLACED TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KTUP LEAVING KJBR WITH VCTS. WINDS TONIGHT SW 4-8 KTS. WINDS MONDAY INCREASING FROM THE SW AND BECOMING GUSTY TURNING MORE TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AT KJBR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THAT AREA. JCL && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1000 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014 .UPDATE... DISPARITY IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. THE 00Z NAM IS COMPLETELY DRY...BUT SINCE IT FAILS TO GENERATE THE ACTIVITY ALREADY ONGOING IN OKLAHOMA...IT IS LIKELY FAILING TO RESOLVE THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING...WHICH WILL BE ABSENT IN NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT. THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWS A CAPPING INVERSION THAT ADDITIONAL WARM ADVECTION...AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...SHOULD ONLY STRENGTHEN. EVEN SO...THE INITIATION OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER FORCING APPROACHES. WITHOUT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WHICH IS UNLIKELY...ANY COLD POOL WILL LIKELY BE INSUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SURFACE PARCELS TO JOIN THE CONVECTIVE PARTY. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST RAP SUGGESTS OUTFLOW FROM THE STORMS TO OUR NORTH MAY REACH THE RED RIVER BY DAYBREAK...THE IMPULSE WILL HAVE PASSED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THEN. 25 && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 651 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014/ THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR TS IMPACTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS. FOR THE METROPLEX TAFS...S-SW BREEZES SHOULD CONTINUE AROUND 10-13 KNOTS AND WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. HAVE RETAINED VCTS FOR THE 00Z ISSUANCE...BUT THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN CLUSTER OF ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX TAFS ALONG THE RELATIVELY DEEPER 2-3 KFT MOIST PLUME AS EVIDENCE BY CU LINE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A FEW STORMS COULD PERSIST FROM THE DEVELOPING CLUSTER NOW ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW. SHOULD TS DEVELOP INVOF OR AT ANY METROPLEX TAF SITES...THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE LIGHTNING...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED VISBY DUE TO HEAVY RAIN. GRADUAL ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD HELP TO PULL SOME OF THE BETTER 2-3 KFT MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND AS A RESULT HAVE RETAINED THE MVFR CIGS AROUND 10Z MONDAY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. BREEZY S-SSW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MVFR CIGS BREAK UP. FOR THE WACO TAF...CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN VCTS AT THE WACO TAF BASED ON WHERE CU DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT. BEST CHANCES FOR VCTS APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 07-10Z ON MON. THE MAIN TS HAZARDS WILL BE LIGHTNING...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED VISBY DUE TO HEAVY RAIN. MVFR CIGS SHOULD ALSO ENCROACH ON THE TERMINAL AROUND 10Z WITH PERHAPS A FEW PERIODS OF IFR CIGS. CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS TIME AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE. BREEZY S-SSW WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP HERE AFTER THE MVFR CIGS DISSIPATE. 15-BAIN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014/ IT HAS BEEN A PLEASANTLY WARM FALL AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH HAVE HELPED BRING 60 DEGREE DEW POINTS UP THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE METROPLEX. THE AREA OF STRATUS THAT MOVED INTO CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHEAST INTO THE CORSICANA AREA HAD SCATTERED OUT AS OF MID AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAD WARMED INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS /TEXAS TECH WRF AND HRRR/ INDICATED THAT STORMS WILL FORM ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN WICHITA FALLS AND ABILENE BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND THESE STORMS WOULD THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE NAM...GFS...CMC...SREF AND ECMWF DIFFER IN WHERE THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP BUT SHOW A SIMILAR SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF WHAT EVER DEVELOPS. GIVEN THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SOME 1 TO 1.5 INCH HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO HAVE LEFT SOME 20 PERCENT POPS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...WE WILL BE DRY WITH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS BRING THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE SIMON NORTHEAST ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA DURING THE 48 TO 72 HOUR PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE LOW THAT WILL FORM OVER ARIZONA... WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA ACROSS NEW MEXICO THEN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO OKLAHOMA. THIS WOULD RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WOULD THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECASTED TO SINK DOWN THE PLAINS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ZONE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER WITH THE ONSET AND ENDING OF THE RAIN AND IS ALSO WETTER THAN THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF SIMON AND THE MID-LATITUDE LOW FARTHER NORTH. THIS RESULTS IN RAIN CHANCES NOT STARTING UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES WITH RAIN CHANCES SPREADING SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST....RAIN CHANCES END FROM SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO GO ALONG WITH A COMPROMISE BLEND THAT LEANS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS. 58 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 66 87 72 93 73 / 40 10 10 5 5 WACO, TX 66 88 71 92 71 / 30 20 10 5 5 PARIS, TX 62 84 67 88 68 / 30 20 20 10 5 DENTON, TX 63 88 69 93 71 / 40 10 10 5 5 MCKINNEY, TX 62 86 69 92 69 / 30 10 20 5 5 DALLAS, TX 67 87 72 92 73 / 40 10 10 5 5 TERRELL, TX 65 86 71 93 72 / 40 20 10 5 5 CORSICANA, TX 66 86 71 91 72 / 30 20 10 10 5 TEMPLE, TX 67 88 70 92 70 / 20 20 10 5 5 MINERAL WELLS, TX 63 89 67 94 69 / 40 10 10 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 79/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1224 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 .DISCUSSION... 214 PM CDT THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE IDENTIFYING AND TIMING INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE FEATURES IN PROLONGED NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER IMPACTS. .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MASSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE CENTER OF A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WOBBLING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND BREAKS DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH EVENTUALLY HELPS OUR NEARLY STATIONARY CANADIAN CLOSED LOW TO MOVE MORE DECISIVELY EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. UPPER FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA THUS BECOMES SOMEWHAT FLATTER BY MID-WEEK...WHILE RETAINING A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALSO IN THIS PROCESS...CURRENT TROPICAL STORM SIMON GETS ABSORBED AS A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY SUB-TROPICAL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. LOCALLY...OUR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODULATED A SERIES OF RELATIVELY SMALL AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS RIPPLING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW. TIMING THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. THE FIRST OF THESE WAS PROPAGATING FROM CENTRAL IL INTO INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY MID-CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OR SO OF COUNTIES. THESE SPRINKLES SHOULD MOVE LARGELY EAST INTO INDIANA BY EVENING. ANOTHER QUICK-MOVING SHORT WAVE WAS NOTED IN GOES VAPOR IMAGERY DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS TOO IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS IA AND CENTRAL IL LATER TONIGHT WHILE YET ANOTHER CIRCULATION IN THE TWIN CITIES VICINITY PASSES TO OUR NORTH. THIS PRESENTS ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A SECOND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION AND MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT NOTED IN THE 290-300 K LAYER. TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS DO NOT SHOW OVERLY IMPRESSIVE SATURATION THROUGH THE COLUMN...THOUGH GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SQUEEZING OUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP LIKELY LINGERING INTO MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS THE SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER FAST DIGGING SHORT WAVE IS DEPICTED DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATER MONDAY NIGHT...WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES AGAIN DEVELOPING AND SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND WITH BETTER CHANCE POPS GENERALLY TO THE EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS AS THE DEEP LOW TO OUR NORTH FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT DOES ALLOW A BIT OF A WARMING TREND THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH HIGHS FROM UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S MONDAY RISING TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S TUESDAY. WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE COOLER IN TH 60-65 RANGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...THOUGH A COUPLE OF OUR TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS MAY DIP TO THE UPPER 30S ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO MAXIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING. .LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS NOTED ABOVE...AS UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES SOMEWHAT FLATTER AND MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY...WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON EVENTUALLY WORKS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY. WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH TENDS TO HANG BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IN BRINGING A PORTION OF THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A RENEWED PUSH OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM JET AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MAY AID IN SPREADING PRECIP AS FAR NORTH AS THE IL/WI BORDER THURSDAY...BEFORE THE BETTER FOCUS ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGING THE THREAT OF RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA. DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS DEVELOP IN THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS...WITH THE 00/12Z ECMWF RUNS DECIDEDLY STRONGER WITH TROUGHING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. WHILE CONFIDENCE LOWER WITH SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE BY DAY 7...HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT SUNDAY AS A NOD TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUN. TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED REMAIN COOLER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY/MID OCTOBER...WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE INDICATING 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS AND UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S FOR MINS. RATZER && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z... * TEMPORARY LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE 12Z-16Z. * CHANCE FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF 2500-4000 FT CIGS DURING AND/OR IMMEDIATELY AFTER LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING. * WESTERLY WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 17-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SUPPORTIVE OF SMALL-SCALE WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING OVER NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST IN AT 06Z...WITH ANOTHER SET TO MOVE ATOP THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS WILL BRING SUPPORT FOR TEMPORARY LIGHT RAIN AS WELL AS LOWERING CIGS TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 4000 FT FOR A PERIOD. ANY RAIN WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO CLOSER TO WESTERLY WITH THIS MID-MORNING WEATHER SYSTEM AS IT WILL HAVE A SUBTLE SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH IT. THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS TO HAVE A LITTLE MORE SUFFICIENT MIXING THAN THIS MORNING AND THUS ALLOWING FOR SOME GUSTS. MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE IN THEIR DEPTH OF MIXING BUT STILL SHOULD SEE GUSTS IN THE TEENS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE GUSTS OBSERVED SUNDAY IN A SIMILAR PATTERN. LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SPEEDS JUST OFF THE DECK /POSSIBLY DOWN TO 500 FT AGL/ ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30-40 KT. USUALLY IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN THE SURFACE WINDS INCREASE SOME TOO THUS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN TAF. //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z... * HIGH IN WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. MEDIUM AFTER 17Z. * MEDIUM-HIGH THAT IF RAIN SHOWERS OCCUR THEY WILL BE LIGHT WITH VFR VISIBILITY AND CIGS. * LOW IN SUB 4000FT CIGS DURING THE MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BETTER POTENTIAL AT MDW THAN ORD. //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z... * TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. * WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. * THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. * FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. MTF && .MARINE... 208 PM CDT A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW MEANDERS AROUND NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH MIDWEEK. BRISK SWLY-WLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE LOW KICKS OUT TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. WHILE GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME...THERE WILL BE PERIODS WHEN WINDS WILL REACH ARND 30KT...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DROP OUT OF CANADA AND SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH HIGH PLAINS...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OUT OF CANADA. BY FRIDAY...THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGIONS. KREIN && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1148 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 850 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014 Short-wave trough currently evident on water vapor imagery over the Plains has spread showers as far east as Omaha and Kansas City as of mid-evening. HRRR continues to show the showers spreading eastward into west-central Illinois by around midnight, then further east to the Indiana border overnight. 00z KILX upper air sounding shows a pronounced dry layer below 800mb, so any precip that occurs will be quite light and may tend to be slower to arrive than the models forecast. Will therefore continue to go with a dry forecast this evening, followed by chance PoPs overnight. Thanks to increasing clouds and precip, low temperatures will be warmer than previous nights, with lows remaining in the middle to upper 40s. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014 Weak showers ahead of a shortwave have exited most of the CWA as of 2 pm except along the Indiana border. Latest surface map shows the associated surface reflection between the Mississippi and Illinois River valleys, and this should move through the CWA the remainder of the afternoon. Main focus for tonight is with potential for additional showers, as another shortwave currently in South Dakota rotates into the Midwest as part of the broad upper trough that covers much of the east 2/3 of the nation. High-resolution models bring an area of showers into the western CWA quickly after about 1-2 am, with the areas northwest of the Illinois River already drying out by sunrise. Have increased PoP`s in most areas in the 09-12Z time frame, although rainfall amounts are still looking to be minor. && .LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday) ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014 There remains model consensus that the longwave trough will remain in place across the eastern CONUS into Wednesday, and then begin to shift eastward. However, there are varying solutions on the timing and intensity of the various shortwaves that are projected to rotate through the trough during that time. The strongest wave is now projected for late tonight and Monday morning, which is about 6 hours faster than previous model solutions. Some adjustments were made for that potential, with reduced PoPs by mid-day on Monday west of I-57. Thunder potential was left in the forecast Monday afternoon due to steep lapse rates, mainly south of a line from Rushville to Lincoln to Champaign. Another wave appears to affect central IL later Monday night into Tuesday morning with another quick shot of showers or sprinkles. The potential for measurable rain from the showers with those first two waves is low. Most areas that do see rain may only get trace amounts, or below `slight chance` PoP levels. For now will continue with low chance and slight chance PoPs in the Mon-Tue time frame to show that showers will be possible. Guidance numbers from the NAM seem to be overdoing a brief warm-up on Tuesday ahead of the surface front. With clouds and showers in place for the morning and clearing not expected until after peak heating, will trim highs at or below guidance. Wednesday looks to be a dry day for now as the upper trough slides east, heights rise aloft and surface high pressure builds into Illinois. The typical warming associated with height rises aloft will be counter-acted by the cold air with the surface high, so overall the temps will cool down Wed into Thursday. For Thursday, the remnants of Simon may come into play for our forecast, as the moisture and wave energy get drawn into the quasi-zonal flow from the southwest toward southern IL. The GFS is the most progressive with that scenario, while the ECMWF seems to stall the energy back over the Plains, but still send the moisture eastward toward Illinois. Models typically have a poor handle on the progression of tropical systems once they come on land, so will not make significant changes in the forecast. Will be keeping the likely and high chance PoPs focused on Thursday for showers and isolated thunderstorms as the remnants of Simon possible reach IL. Beyond that, the GFS brings high pressure with reinforcing cool air through next Sunday. Meanwhile the ECMWF finally ejects the wave energy from Simon into IL on Sunday, with additional Gulf moisture in tow and creates a wet scenario for the last half of next weekend. The extended blend was influenced by the ECMWF enough for chance PoPs to remain for Sat night/Sunday for now. Overall, temps will remain below seasonal normals over the next week, with Tuesday possibly the warmest day with highs possibly reaching around 70. Otherwise, 50s and 60s will prevail for highs through next Sunday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014 VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 06z TAF period. A weak upper-level disturbance currently across Iowa/Missouri will track eastward tonight, spreading clouds and a few light showers into central Illinois. Latest radar mosaic is showing scattered showers approaching the Mississippi River. Based on timing tools and most recent HRRR, have introduced VCSH at KPIA by 08z, then further east to KCMI by 10z. Once disturbance passes to the east, partial clearing will occur from west to east across the area Monday morning. Despite synoptic subsidence in the wake of this feature, steep mid-level lapse rates will lead to SCT-BKN diurnal cloudiness, particularly along/north of the I-74 corridor. Will be a breezy day as well, with forecast soundings suggesting westerly winds gusting to around 20kt. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Barnes SHORT TERM...Geelhart LONG TERM...Shimon AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
156 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 105 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH PROBABLY AS MANY THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE ARE SHOWERS OUT THERE. HAVE BEEFED UP THE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS. THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN CULPRIT FOR THIS ACTIVITY...WITH EVEN AN EMBEDDED SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH A LITTLE MORE SUBTLE WARM FRONT STEMMING SOUTHEAST. THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE CENTRAL KENTUCKY CONVECTION INTO OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT DOES WEAKEN AS IT HEADS TO OUR FAR EAST...WHERE LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR IS HANGING A BIT MORE TOUGH. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...SO HAVE FOLLOWED THIS IDEA THROUGH DAWN. TEMPERATURES ARE VARYING QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BOONEVILLE MESONET...NORMALLY MORE OF A VALLEY LOCATION CURRENTLY REPORTING AT 59 DEGREES...WHILE THE QUICKSAND MESONET IS STILL IN THE MID 40S. EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE IS THE WHITESBURG MESONET...WHICH STARTED OUT AT A COOL 45 DEGREES AT MIDNIGHT. AFTER SOME MIXING TOOK PLACE IN THE PAST HOUR...IT IS NOW REPORTING 61 DEGREES. EXPECT THIS GRADUAL SCOURING OUT OF THE COOLER VALLEY AIR TO CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1148 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014 THE SHORT WAVE BLOSSOMED AS IT APPROACHED EASTERN KENTUCKY AND HAS EVEN BEEN ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CHANGED THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. THE TIME STILL LOOKED GOOD FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST. LOOKING AT THE 00 GMT NAM...LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM BUFR WAS MILDLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEEING A SUPER CELL OR TWO DEVELOP. WILL BE MONITORING THE SITUATION AS THE NEW GFS BEGINS TO COME IN. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATE ISSUED AT 914 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014 UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL TRENDS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL TRY TO PUT SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. CHANGED THE FORECAST FROM MEASURABLE SHOWERS TO SPRINKLES FOR TONIGHT. IN THE MORNING THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT SHAKY. WAS CHECKING A TIME HEIGHT FORECAST FOR JACKSON COMPARING THE NAM AND GFS AND THE DIFFERENCES WERE STARK. HAD TO DO A BIT OF A MODEL BLEND. THE NAM BUFFER SOUNDING FOR JKL FOR 4 PM TOMORROW HAS SOME IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY WITH TOTAL TOTALS OF 52 AND A LIFTER INDEX OF -4 WITH 1200 JOULES OF CAPE. THE HELICITY IS FORECAST TO BE 254. WITH ALL OF THESE PARAMETERS IN PLAY...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TOMORROW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE DOWN SIDE IS THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL IS LOW...SO WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS DO WITH IT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST REGION KEEPING THE ADVANCEMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AT BAY. THIS WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE PRECIP...IF ANY TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE REST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT. MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DURING THE MONDAY TIMER PERIOD...A STRONG JET STREAK PUSHES INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE OH VALLEY ON MONDAY AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE REGION. THIS INFLUX OF ENERGY WILL COINCIDE WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY INTO MONDAY EVENING AND WITH THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AVAILABLE...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY BE ON TAP FOR MONDAY EVENING AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SPC CONTINUES TO KEEP THE ENTIRE CWA IN A 5% RISK WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA IN A 15% RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. STILL BELIEVE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR THIS EVENT WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH THE BEST INGREDIENTS STILL TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST IN CENTRAL TN AND SOUTH CENTRAL KY. STILL...SOME CELLS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE I-75 CORRIDOR SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO. HEADING INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED JUST ALONG THE NC COAST...WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE FRONT STALLED OUT ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN WITH PRECIP EXPECTED ALONG EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME AND WILL KEEP POPS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 445 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014 THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS FOR OUR AREA UNTIL FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY. ADVECTION OF MILD AND MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THESES FEATURES WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS. DEEP INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL...WITH PRECIP LIKELY INHIBITING WARMING DURING THE DAY... AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER. WINDS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND VEER BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WIND FIELDS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WX. SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL ALSO OCCUR IN THE MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...WARMING ALOFT IS ALSO EXPECTED...AND THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE TIME FOR MUCH SURFACE HEATING...WHICH IN THE END WILL LIKELY PREVENT SEVERE WX. THE SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE WATCH IN CASE IT CHANGES. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS TUESDAY EVENING...WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER AIR BUILDING IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND THEN RIPPLE ENE...PULLING THE FRONT BACK NORTH INTO KY ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE PRECIP. DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW UP FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT...TAKING THE FRONT AND MOST OF ITS PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH BY FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT STALLS. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH... KEEPING PRECIP IN OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITHOUT CLARITY AND CONFIDENCE AS TO WHERE THE FRONT WILL END UP...HAVE HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 08Z. MOST OF THESE HAVE NOT BROUGHT ANY CEILING OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WHEN PASSING OVER A GIVEN LOCATION...SO WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE VFR...ALTHOUGH WILL MENTION A WINDOW OF VCTS AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS WILL ALSO BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY IN WIDE OPEN AREAS AND RIDGETOP LOCATIONS. SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KTS HAVE ALSO OCCURRED WITH ANY PASSING INTENSE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH CONVECTION BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD EVEN APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MVFR BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...AS MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
105 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 105 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH PROBABLY AS MANY THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE ARE SHOWERS OUT THERE. HAVE BEEFED UP THE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS. THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN CULPRIT FOR THIS ACTIVITY...WITH EVEN AN EMBEDDED SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH A LITTLE MORE SUBTLE WARM FRONT STEMMING SOUTHEAST. THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE CENTRAL KENTUCKY CONVECTION INTO OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT DOES WEAKEN AS IT HEADS TO OUR FAR EAST...WHERE LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR IS HANGING A BIT MORE TOUGH. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...SO HAVE FOLLOWED THIS IDEA THROUGH DAWN. TEMPERATURES ARE VARYING QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BOONEVILLE MESONET...NORMALLY MORE OF A VALLEY LOCATION CURRENTLY REPORTING AT 59 DEGREES...WHILE THE QUICKSAND MESONET IS STILL IN THE MID 40S. EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE IS THE WHITESBURG MESONET...WHICH STARTED OUT AT A COOL 45 DEGREES AT MIDNIGHT. AFTER SOME MIXING TOOK PLACE IN THE PAST HOUR...IT IS NOW REPORTING 61 DEGREES. EXPECT THIS GRADUAL SCOURING OUT OF THE COOLER VALLEY AIR TO CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1148 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014 THE SHORT WAVE BLOSSOMED AS IT APPROACHED EASTERN KENTUCKY AND HAS EVEN BEEN ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CHANGED THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. THE TIME STILL LOOKED GOOD FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST. LOOKING AT THE 00 GMT NAM...LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM BUFR WAS MILDLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEEING A SUPER CELL OR TWO DEVELOP. WILL BE MONITORING THE SITUATION AS THE NEW GFS BEGINS TO COME IN. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATE ISSUED AT 914 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014 UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL TRENDS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL TRY TO PUT SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. CHANGED THE FORECAST FROM MEASURABLE SHOWERS TO SPRINKLES FOR TONIGHT. IN THE MORNING THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT SHAKY. WAS CHECKING A TIME HEIGHT FORECAST FOR JACKSON COMPARING THE NAM AND GFS AND THE DIFFERENCES WERE STARK. HAD TO DO A BIT OF A MODEL BLEND. THE NAM BUFFER SOUNDING FOR JKL FOR 4 PM TOMORROW HAS SOME IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY WITH TOTAL TOTALS OF 52 AND A LIFTER INDEX OF -4 WITH 1200 JOULES OF CAPE. THE HELICITY IS FORECAST TO BE 254. WITH ALL OF THESE PARAMETERS IN PLAY...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TOMORROW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE DOWN SIDE IS THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL IS LOW...SO WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS DO WITH IT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST REGION KEEPING THE ADVANCEMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AT BAY. THIS WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE PRECIP...IF ANY TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE REST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT. MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DURING THE MONDAY TIMER PERIOD...A STRONG JET STREAK PUSHES INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE OH VALLEY ON MONDAY AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE REGION. THIS INFLUX OF ENERGY WILL COINCIDE WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY INTO MONDAY EVENING AND WITH THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AVAILABLE...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY BE ON TAP FOR MONDAY EVENING AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SPC CONTINUES TO KEEP THE ENTIRE CWA IN A 5% RISK WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA IN A 15% RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. STILL BELIEVE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR THIS EVENT WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH THE BEST INGREDIENTS STILL TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST IN CENTRAL TN AND SOUTH CENTRAL KY. STILL...SOME CELLS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE I-75 CORRIDOR SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO. HEADING INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED JUST ALONG THE NC COAST...WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE FRONT STALLED OUT ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN WITH PRECIP EXPECTED ALONG EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME AND WILL KEEP POPS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 445 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014 THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS FOR OUR AREA UNTIL FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY. ADVECTION OF MILD AND MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THESES FEATURES WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS. DEEP INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL...WITH PRECIP LIKELY INHIBITING WARMING DURING THE DAY... AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER. WINDS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND VEER BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WIND FIELDS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WX. SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL ALSO OCCUR IN THE MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...WARMING ALOFT IS ALSO EXPECTED...AND THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE TIME FOR MUCH SURFACE HEATING...WHICH IN THE END WILL LIKELY PREVENT SEVERE WX. THE SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE WATCH IN CASE IT CHANGES. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS TUESDAY EVENING...WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER AIR BUILDING IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND THEN RIPPLE ENE...PULLING THE FRONT BACK NORTH INTO KY ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE PRECIP. DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW UP FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT...TAKING THE FRONT AND MOST OF ITS PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH BY FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT STALLS. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH... KEEPING PRECIP IN OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITHOUT CLARITY AND CONFIDENCE AS TO WHERE THE FRONT WILL END UP...HAVE HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 914 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014 MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOME SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FIRST SHORT WAVE. IN THE MORNING A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY TOMORROW...SO THERE WILL A BE CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. PUT SOME IN THE FORECAST STARTING AT AROUND 20Z. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON THE HEATING A CLOUD COVER. EXPECTING VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. IFR IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
342 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 .DISCUSSION... WILL BE BRIEF THIS MORNING AS STRONG CONVECTION ENTERING OUR CWA AND THE LATENESS OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z ECMWF WILL NOT ALLOW FOR A LENGTHY DISCUSSION. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A 45KT LOW LEVEL JET IS HELPING TO FEED THIS STRONG TO SOMETIMES SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY OF S OK/SW AR INTO N TX ATTM. THREW OUT THE 00Z NAM OUTPUT AS IT HAS A POOR HANDLING OF CURRENT CONVECTION. TODAY`S POP WAS BASED ON THE HRRR/GFS/ECMWF/CMC OUTPUT WHICH WARRANTS HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR REGION TODAY. SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF OUR REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE CONVECTION TODAY AND WHILE THIS IS WARRANTED...DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SEVERE CONVECTION WITH THIS COMPLEX. HOWEVER...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND SVR WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IF THE HRRR MODEL PANS OUT...THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD SWING THROUGH OUR ENTIRE CWA TODAY BUT REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW LEFT BEHIND FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION AND THE DEGREE OF AFTERNOON HEATING WE ARE ABLE TO SEE. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR NORTHERN MOST ZONES OVERNIGHT AS PROGS SUGGEST THAT WE COULD SEE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OVERNIGHT BUT AGAIN...THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH A WEAK BOUNDARY CAN REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. LOW POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND ANY CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO AFTERNOON HEATING. FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE PROGS REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT CONCERNING TIMING OF OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES. THE 00Z GFS REMAINS THE FAST OUTLIER SO HAVE TRENDED TEMPS/POPS TO THE 00Z ECMWF/CMC RUNS WHICH POINT TO A SLOWER TROUGH EJECTION FROM THE WEST AND SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT INTO OUR REGION. THIS RESULT IN A WET WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 85 69 91 70 91 / 50 20 20 10 10 MLU 84 66 90 67 91 / 50 30 20 10 20 DEQ 82 63 89 65 88 / 40 40 20 10 10 TXK 84 67 90 69 88 / 50 40 20 10 10 ELD 83 64 88 66 88 / 50 40 20 10 10 TYR 85 70 91 71 91 / 50 20 10 10 10 GGG 85 70 91 69 91 / 50 20 10 10 10 LFK 87 69 92 70 91 / 40 20 10 10 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
509 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NW ONTARIO WITH A BROAD TROUGH DOMINATING THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. A WEAK SHRTWV WAS SLIDING THROUGH UPPER MI WHILE A MUCH STRONGER UPSTREAM SHRTWV LOBE WAS LOCATED OVER N CNTRL MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILED OVER UPPER MI AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH INTO NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NE MN. ALTHOUGH MID CLOUDS WERE SPREADING ACROSS W UPPER MI AND 850 MB TEMPS REMAINED NEAR -3C...RELATIVELY DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD DECK HAS LIMITED ANY LAKE EFFECT PCPN. TODAY...EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND SFC HEATING FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 50 AS WAA AND BREEZY SW WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD THE SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH/FRONT ADVANCE TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PCPN...WITH MOST OF THE RAIN HOLDING OFF OVER THE WEST AFTER 00Z/TUE. TONIGHT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE INFLOW AND ONLY MODERATE 700-300 QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...POPS WERE LOWERED A BIT INTO THE 40-60 RANGE GREATEST OVER THE NW THIS EVENING AND OVER THE ERN CWA LATE. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH SO THAT NO SNOW IS EXPECTED AS THE COLDER AIR ONLY MOVES IN AFTER THE FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE DEPART TO THE EAST. ANY PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.1 INCH. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 WET/UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LINGER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE SECOND HALF AS THE PESKY LOW OVER ONTARIO FINALLY EXITS INTO CENTRAL AND N QUEBEC. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOR TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W THIRD OF THE CWA AS THE NEARLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO GETS AS CLOSE AS IT/S GOING TO TO UPPER MI...WITH THE PRIMARY TROUGH EXTENDING ALL THE WAY DOWN THROUGH IL AT 18Z TUESDAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE MODEST AROUND 0 TO 4C...AND WITH SFC TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ON W-WSW WINDS...SNOW IS BASICALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION AT THIS POINT. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW AS COOLER AIR SLIDES IN BEHIND THE EXITING SFC-500MB LOW. EXPECT THE LOW TO SHIFT BACK UP TO N ONTARIO BY 00Z THURSDAY. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO THE -3 TO -8C RANGE ON UPSLOPE W-WNW LOW LEVEL WINDS. AN INCREASE PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN WINDS HOVERING AROUND 20KTS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. GUSTS NEAR 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. DRIER AIR WILL INVADE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA...AND THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTS E. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LOOK FOR SOME RETURN FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A SFC LOW/TROUGH MOVING FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT 18Z SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AT THE EARLIEST. A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION MAY BE IN THE CARDS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 ALTHOUGH SOME BKN SC MAY IMPACT MAINLY CMX EARLY THIS MRNG AS A DISTURBANCE SWINGS THRU THE UPR LKS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES WITH RELATIVELY DRY LLVLS. THIS DRY AIR WL LINGER THRU TODAY...RESULTING IN PERSISTENT VFR WX. GUSTY WINDS WL DVLP AT THE 3 SITES BY MON AFTN WITH DAYTIME/HEATING MIXING. LATER TOWARD SUNSET...EXPECT CLDS TO BE ON THE INCRS W-E IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THRU THE UPR LKS ARND DEEP LO PRES IN NW ONTARIO. SOME -SHRA WL IMPACT MAINLY CMX. IN THE ABSENCE OF SGNFT LLVL MSTR INFLOW...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE AT THE 3 AIRPORTS. THE BEST CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WL BE LATER IN THE EVNG AT CMX...WHICH WL BE CLOSER TO THE SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 A SURFACE LOW ROTATING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT AND GENERALLY SW WINDS OF 15-30KTS TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY (UP TO 30KTS)...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND DECREASES WINDS BELOW 20KTS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...KC MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
325 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2014 ...Unsettled and Wet Weather for the End of This Week... .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 258 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 An upper level disturbance is currently over the Missouri Ozarks and moving East. Most of the showers have come to an end for our local area with the majority of the active weather just to our south. Today will remain mostly dry. Another disturbance will move through the upper level flow tonight and develop scattered showers and perhaps some isolated thunder mainly over the eastern half of the Missouri Ozarks late tonight and by early tomorrow morning. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 258 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 After some morning showers on Tuesday...the rest of the day looks pretty good with warmer temperatures and afternoon sunshine. Heights will rise and the upper level pattern will begin to flatten out somewhat overhead. Above average temperatures in the lower 80s can be expected by the middle of the week Starting Wednesday night and through the end of the week...the weather pattern becomes much more unsettled and wet for the Missouri Ozarks. A front drops down on Thursday and is a slow mover at the same time several upper level waves move west to east in the flow. Deep moisture increases and some tropical moisture leftover from the tropical system currently in the Pacific moves over the region. PW values may be close to 2 inches which is actually kinda high for this time of year by the end of the week. Multiple rounds of convection is expected to develop starting late Wednesday through the end of the week. Severe weather is not expected at this time but heavy rainfall potential will be something to watch for. Several inches of rainfall look likely. Blended with the ECMWF more than the GFS for next weekend with showers and thunderstorms lingering through the weekend. The front looks like it will stall out just to our south with cooler temperatures in the 60s on the back side of the front for next weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night) Issued at 1135 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014 Scattered showers/isolated thunder continue to progress quickly southeast from central MO into Oklahoma. HRRR has had a pretty good handle on this tonight and will continue to follow pretty close for guidance. Deeper convection across central OK where much better instability exists and not expecting that type of activity here in the Ozarks tonight. For the TAF sites, like what we forecast in the 00z TAFS with VCSH wording at the TAF sites continuing until around 10-11z time frame, with roughly 10kft bases. So, expecting VFR conditions to continue through the period. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Griffin LONG TERM...Griffin AVIATION...Lindenberg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1138 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2014 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday) Issued at 245 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014 A long wave trough over eastern North America will remain in place early in the week. A couple of disturbances will move southeast through the region and with a nw-se oriented baroclinic zone in place, will see some increased isentropic ascent as times with chances for some chances for showers. The best chances look to be over the northeast portion of the cwfa. .LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 245 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014 We will see a gradual upper level pattern change as the high latitude upper low north of the Great Lakes shifts off to the east and a split, more progressive, upper flow pattern develops over the central CONUS. Increased moisture will spread north and northeast into the area with a sharpening west-east warm front lifting into the region Wed-Thu. An almost "backdoorish" front drops south through the region Thu night into Fri as Canadian high pressure pushes south into the northern Plains and upper Midwest. We have fairly high rain chances in the forecast Wed night through Fri but chances will continue into the weekend as the front tries to lift back to the north as another shortwave moves into the central and southern Plains. Overall weather related impacts: We will need to watch the potential for mounting rainfall totals and convection/tstm chances later in the week. Heavier rain chances look to be Thu-Fri with the frontal boundary pushing back to the south. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night) Issued at 1135 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014 Scattered showers/isolated thunder continue to progress quickly southeast from central MO into Oklahoma. HRRR has had a pretty good handle on this tonight and will continue to follow pretty close for guidance. Deeper convection across central OK where much better instability exists and not expecting that type of activity here in the Ozarks tonight. For the TAF sites, like what we forecast in the 00z TAFS with VCSH wording at the TAF sites continuing until around 10-11z time frame, with roughly 10kft bases. So, expecting VFR conditions to continue through the period. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Lindenberg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1205 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 .AVIAION... 06/06Z TAFS... LINE OF TSTMS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL OK THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF CNTRL OK SITES BY 06Z AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF KLAW/KSPS AS THEY MOVE SEWD. WITH STORMS MOVING AWAY FROM TAF SITES...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014/ .UPDATE... UPDATE TO PRECIP/WEATHER... && .DISCUSSION... DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER HAS INCREASED A SKOSH MORE ACROSS NRN OK THIS EVENING... NOW THAT THE ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS INTERACTED WITH A MORE SUPPORTIVE MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NRN OK. GIVEN THE UPTICK IN DEVELOPMENT AND OVERALL TRACK... INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER FOR THE OKC METRO OVERNIGHT. THE 01Z RAP APPEARS TO HAVE AN OKAY HANDLE ON DEVELOPMENT... WITH AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TMRW MORNING AS THE SFC LOW LINGERS OVER WEST TX... WITH AN INCREASING SFC TROUGH EXTENDING INTO SERN OK. AS THE SFC OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH S/SE TONIGHT... IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO AN OVERALL BETTER ENVIRONMENT... INCREASING SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OK... AND PORTIONS OF NRN TX. JTK && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014/ AVIATION... 06/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING AT AND NEAR KPNC AS ACTIVITY OVER KANSAS SPREADS SOUTHEAST WITH JET STREAK - S/WV TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR TERMINALS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014/ UPDATE... UPDATE TO PRECIP/WX... DISCUSSION... INTERESTING FORECAST THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK H500 SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH. CURRENTLY... ACROSS KANSAS... AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE S/SE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ROOTED ALONG A WEAK ISENTROPIC RESPONSE... SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 310 TO 315K... THE LOCATION OF THE BEST MOISTURE WITHIN THE MID LEVELS. GIVEN 17Z SOUNDING FROM LAMONT (LMN) IN NRN OK... THE LL/BL REMAINS NOTICABLE DRY... AND COMPARED TO SFC OBS... THE RETURNS VISIBLE ON RADAR ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK ARE LIKELY REPRESENTATIVE OF VIRGA. HOWEVER... AS THE WAVE PROGRESSES S/SE THROUGH THE EVENING... WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL GIVEN COLD TEMPS ALOFT. FURTHER SOUTH... ALONG THE RED RIVER/TEXOMA REGION OF SOUTH CENTRAL OK/WRN N TX. DECENT WAA HAS CONTINUED TO TRANSPORT A MODEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE LL/BL. COMBINED WITH A WEAK SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE LLANO ESTACADO/CAPROCK IN WEST TX... THERE REMAINS ENOUGH FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE KS/NRN OK ACTIVITY. AT THE MOMENT... NOT OVERLY CONVINCED OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP IN CENTRAL OK/THE METRO. HOWEVER... IF YOU ALLOW ME TO HEDGE A BIT... GIVEN THE MOISTURE PROFILE/LIFT... WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME DRIZZLE DEVELOPED LATE TONIGHT... WITH BEST CHANCES EAST OF I-35. JTK PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 143 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014/ DISCUSSION... THE VERY WEAK FRONT THAT IS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA TODAY WILL LIE OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT WHEN A FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES. THESE FEATURES WILL INTERSECT GREATER MOISTURE IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND GIVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THROUGH MID-WEEK VERY HOT WEATHER WILL QUICKLY RETURN. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S. BEGINNING WEDNESDAY THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES WILL BECOME STRONGER OVER OKLAHOMA AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. LONGER-TERM MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO AGREE ON THE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY TIME FRAME FOR THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OKLAHOMA. A RE-PHASING OF THE TWO BRANCHES OF THE WESTERLIES IS EXPECTED IN THE WEEKEND WHEN RAIN CHANCES END AND COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 57 87 60 92 / 20 10 10 0 HOBART OK 55 88 59 92 / 10 10 10 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 61 89 64 94 / 20 10 10 0 GAGE OK 46 88 52 90 / 10 0 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 51 83 55 91 / 20 10 10 0 DURANT OK 63 85 65 91 / 30 20 10 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 04/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1151 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014 .UPDATE...EVENING AND FOR 06Z AVIATION && .EVENING UPDATE... INCLUDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE FAR NRN AREAS ALONG THE KY BORDER. SHORT-WAVE ENERGY ACROSS IL/IN IS HELPING TO GENERATE THIS CONVECTION...WHILE STRONGER CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS DOWNSTREAM FROM A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JET. THE LATTER IS FORECAST FROM THE HRRR AND THE NEWEST 00Z MODEL DATA TO REACH THE WRN HALF OF OUR CWA BY 12Z. INCREASED POPS TOWARDS 12Z AS A RESULT. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY. && .AVIATION... SHRA/TSRA ARE DEVELOPING NEAR THE KY/TN BORDER. MAY KEEP A TEMPO TSRA IN AT CKV AS A RESULT. HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION DURING THIS TAF PERIOD WILL INCLUDE SOME MORNING SHRA/TSRA ROUGHLY BETWEEN 11-15Z FOR CKV AND BNA...AND THEN FOR ALL TERMINALS AFTER ROUGHLY 19Z. DURING THOSE TIMES...CIGS/VSBYS MAY LOWER INTO IFR-MVFR BRIEFLY FROM CONVECTION...AND STRONG WINDS AND HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 19Z. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD...BUT MAINLY BETWEEN 14-22Z MONDAY. MAY PULL THE LLWS MENTION OUT OF THE CKV TAF SINCE WINDS HAVE NOT TAPERED AS MUCH AS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ AL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1146 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014 .AVIATION... A COMPLEX OF STORMS CURRENTLY ORGANIZING ACROSS OKLAHOMA WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN OVERNIGHT. MODELS...INCLUDING HI RES SOLUTIONS...HAVE BEEN HAVING A TOUGH TIME SHOWING ANY RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. OUR CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE OKLAHOMA CONVECTION WILL REACH THE RED RIVER COUNTIES BETWEEN 06 AND 07Z AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED IN NATURE AND MAY WEAKEN SOME AS THEY MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SINCE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. WE WILL MAINTAIN A VCTS AT THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS FROM 09 TO 12Z AND IN WACO FROM 11 TO 15Z. ANOTHER AVIATION CONCERN OVERNIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WILL BE MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY. KFWS VAD SHOWS A 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE AND MVFR CEILINGS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AROUND THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT. WE EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO REACH WACO BETWEEN 08 AND 09Z AND THE METROPLEX TAF SITES SHORTLY AFTER THAT. THE LOW CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY CLEAR THE CEILINGS OUT EARLIER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 7 AND 13 KNOTS ALONG WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. 79 && .UPDATE... DISPARITY IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. THE 00Z NAM IS COMPLETELY DRY...BUT SINCE IT FAILS TO GENERATE THE ACTIVITY ALREADY ONGOING IN OKLAHOMA...IT IS LIKELY FAILING TO RESOLVE THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING...WHICH WILL BE ABSENT IN NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT. THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWS A CAPPING INVERSION THAT ADDITIONAL WARM ADVECTION...AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...SHOULD ONLY STRENGTHEN. EVEN SO...THE INITIATION OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER FORCING APPROACHES. WITHOUT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WHICH IS UNLIKELY...ANY COLD POOL WILL LIKELY BE INSUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SURFACE PARCELS TO JOIN THE CONVECTIVE PARTY. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST RAP SUGGESTS OUTFLOW FROM THE STORMS TO OUR NORTH MAY REACH THE RED RIVER BY DAYBREAK...THE IMPULSE WILL HAVE PASSED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THEN. 25 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014/ IT HAS BEEN A PLEASANTLY WARM FALL AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH HAVE HELPED BRING 60 DEGREE DEW POINTS UP THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE METROPLEX. THE AREA OF STRATUS THAT MOVED INTO CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHEAST INTO THE CORSICANA AREA HAD SCATTERED OUT AS OF MID AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAD WARMED INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS /TEXAS TECH WRF AND HRRR/ INDICATED THAT STORMS WILL FORM ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN WICHITA FALLS AND ABILENE BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND THESE STORMS WOULD THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE NAM...GFS...CMC...SREF AND ECMWF DIFFER IN WHERE THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP BUT SHOW A SIMILAR SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF WHAT EVER DEVELOPS. GIVEN THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SOME 1 TO 1.5 INCH HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO HAVE LEFT SOME 20 PERCENT POPS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...WE WILL BE DRY WITH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS BRING THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE SIMON NORTHEAST ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA DURING THE 48 TO 72 HOUR PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE LOW THAT WILL FORM OVER ARIZONA... WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA ACROSS NEW MEXICO THEN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO OKLAHOMA. THIS WOULD RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WOULD THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECASTED TO SINK DOWN THE PLAINS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ZONE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER WITH THE ONSET AND ENDING OF THE RAIN AND IS ALSO WETTER THAN THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF SIMON AND THE MID-LATITUDE LOW FARTHER NORTH. THIS RESULTS IN RAIN CHANCES NOT STARTING UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES WITH RAIN CHANCES SPREADING SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST....RAIN CHANCES END FROM SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO GO ALONG WITH A COMPROMISE BLEND THAT LEANS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS. 58 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 66 87 72 93 73 / 40 10 10 5 5 WACO, TX 66 88 71 92 71 / 30 20 10 5 5 PARIS, TX 62 84 67 88 68 / 30 20 20 10 5 DENTON, TX 63 88 69 93 71 / 40 10 10 5 5 MCKINNEY, TX 62 86 69 92 69 / 30 10 20 5 5 DALLAS, TX 67 87 72 92 73 / 40 10 10 5 5 TERRELL, TX 65 86 71 93 72 / 40 20 10 5 5 CORSICANA, TX 66 86 71 91 72 / 30 20 10 10 5 TEMPLE, TX 67 88 70 92 70 / 20 20 10 5 5 MINERAL WELLS, TX 63 89 67 94 69 / 40 10 10 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 79/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1150 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1150 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 ITS A DIFFICULT DAY TO ANTICIPATE SPECIFIC CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION VERY FAR IN ADVANCE FOR A FORECAST. HAVE AGAIN UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. WILL EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF PRECIP LATER TODAY IS LOW. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1014 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 UPDATED TO BLEND LATEST OBS INTO THE FORECAST. THIS INCLUDES RADAR...WITH FAST MOVING CONVECTION AFFECTING THE REGION THIS MORNING. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST. UPDATE ISSUED AT 830 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 HAVE FRESHENED UP THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS FIRST WAVE OF ACTIVITY LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 10 AM AND 1 PM. ONCE THIS MOVES THROUGH...MORE OF A LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA. THIS WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST THE LONGEST. THERE LIKELY NOT BE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION...HOWEVER AT LEAST SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BUILD IN A SMALL WINDOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE LINE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. EMBEDDED CELLS WITHIN THIS LINE WILL POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PIVOTING ACROSS THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE CAROLINA COAST. ALOFT...A MASSIVE TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FOUND ACROSS THE WEST COAST. WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN SEVERAL BOUTS OF THUNDER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT...AS A LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP ACROSS THE AREA...ALLOWING A MORE SUBTLE SURFACE WARM FRONT TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE COOLER VALLEY AIR HAS MIXED OUT...WITH ONLY A FEW SPOTS HANGING ONTO THE 40S. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING IN THE 50S...WITH EVEN A FEW 60S ALSO NOTED. AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...AS STOUT INTERMITTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WHILE THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AS WELL AS THE INFLUENCE FROM CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SOME UNCERTAINTY. AS SUCH...HAVE RELIED ON A GENERAL BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE. EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE AREA...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. POPS THEN REALLY RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE FIRST SHORT WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED AS LEAN...HOWEVER THE DYNAMICS AND SUBSEQUENT WIND PROFILE REMAIN BEEFY. THE STORM MODE LOOKS MORE SUPERCELLULAR...AND WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME ISOLATED CELLS ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY EXHIBITING SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS. WET BULB AND FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE NEAR OR BELOW 9K FEET...WHICH WILL MAKE UP FOR THE LACK OF MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS HAMPERED BY THE LIMITED INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH 40 TO 50 KTS OF WIND AT 4 TO 5K FEET OFF OF THE GROUND. CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO MORE OF SEVERAL LINES OR ELONGATED CLUSTERS TOWARDS DUSK AS THE CORE OF THE FORCING MOVES IN OVERHEAD. PWATS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...HOWEVER ANY TRAINING CELLS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PUT DOWN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN PLACES. ONCE THE FIRST WAVE MOVES OUT LATER THIS EVENING...A BRIEF REPRIEVE WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE MOVES IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS...WITH AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AND GOOD DYNAMICS DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN AND THE EVOLUTION OF WEATHER SYSTEMS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LARGE AND VERY ENERGETIC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH OR WEAK FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS UPPER LOW WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OF EASTERN KENTUCKY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. A SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THEN ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL EVOLVE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY DRAGS A SLUGGISH FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS AN AREA EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WOULD BE OUR SECOND WEATHER MAKER IN THE EXTENDED...SHOULD THE MODELS PROVE TO BE CORRECT. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM FORMATION WITH BOTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEMS THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS SHOWING UP...AND WITH STRONG MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PERIODS WILL FEATURE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR NOW...WITH GENERAL RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS EASTERN KENTUCKY LIES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING MID LATITUDE CYCLONE. ONCE THE INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A COOLER AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT COOLER DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION...AND AN AIR MASS CHANGE OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOW TO MID 60S EACH DAY RESPECTIVELY. SUNDAY COULD SEE A BRIEF REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES...AS WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE RAIN CHANCES OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMING FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG IT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 830 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 A COUPLE OF LINES OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE FIRST LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 14 AND 17Z FROM WEST TO EAST. A LOT OF THIS CONVECTION IS ELEVATED IN NATURE...SO ONLY A TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS IS EXPECTED...WITH MAINLY A VFR STATUS REIGNING. THE SECOND LINE OF CONVECTION WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 20 AND 01Z. STRONGER EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS LINE...WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR EXPECTED. LOWER CEILINGS WILL THEN SCATTER OUT IN THE EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...LINGERING THE LONGEST IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS WILL BE COMMON TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1015 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1014 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 UPDATED TO BLEND LATEST OBS INTO THE FORECAST. THIS INCLUDES RADAR...WITH FAST MOVING CONVECTION AFFECTING THE REGION THIS MORNING. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST. UPDATE ISSUED AT 830 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 HAVE FRESHENED UP THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS FIRST WAVE OF ACTIVITY LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 10 AM AND 1 PM. ONCE THIS MOVES THROUGH...MORE OF A LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA. THIS WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST THE LONGEST. THERE LIKELY NOT BE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION...HOWEVER AT LEAST SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BUILD IN A SMALL WINDOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE LINE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. EMBEDDED CELLS WITHIN THIS LINE WILL POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PIVOTING ACROSS THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE CAROLINA COAST. ALOFT...A MASSIVE TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FOUND ACROSS THE WEST COAST. WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN SEVERAL BOUTS OF THUNDER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT...AS A LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP ACROSS THE AREA...ALLOWING A MORE SUBTLE SURFACE WARM FRONT TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE COOLER VALLEY AIR HAS MIXED OUT...WITH ONLY A FEW SPOTS HANGING ONTO THE 40S. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING IN THE 50S...WITH EVEN A FEW 60S ALSO NOTED. AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...AS STOUT INTERMITTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WHILE THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AS WELL AS THE INFLUENCE FROM CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SOME UNCERTAINTY. AS SUCH...HAVE RELIED ON A GENERAL BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE. EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE AREA...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. POPS THEN REALLY RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE FIRST SHORT WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED AS LEAN...HOWEVER THE DYNAMICS AND SUBSEQUENT WIND PROFILE REMAIN BEEFY. THE STORM MODE LOOKS MORE SUPERCELLULAR...AND WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME ISOLATED CELLS ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY EXHIBITING SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS. WET BULB AND FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE NEAR OR BELOW 9K FEET...WHICH WILL MAKE UP FOR THE LACK OF MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS HAMPERED BY THE LIMITED INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH 40 TO 50 KTS OF WIND AT 4 TO 5K FEET OFF OF THE GROUND. CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO MORE OF SEVERAL LINES OR ELONGATED CLUSTERS TOWARDS DUSK AS THE CORE OF THE FORCING MOVES IN OVERHEAD. PWATS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...HOWEVER ANY TRAINING CELLS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PUT DOWN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN PLACES. ONCE THE FIRST WAVE MOVES OUT LATER THIS EVENING...A BRIEF REPRIEVE WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE MOVES IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS...WITH AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AND GOOD DYNAMICS DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN AND THE EVOLUTION OF WEATHER SYSTEMS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LARGE AND VERY ENERGETIC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH OR WEAK FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS UPPER LOW WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OF EASTERN KENTUCKY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. A SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THEN ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL EVOLVE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY DRAGS A SLUGGISH FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS AN AREA EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WOULD BE OUR SECOND WEATHER MAKER IN THE EXTENDED...SHOULD THE MODELS PROVE TO BE CORRECT. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM FORMATION WITH BOTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEMS THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS SHOWING UP...AND WITH STRONG MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PERIODS WILL FEATURE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR NOW...WITH GENERAL RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS EASTERN KENTUCKY LIES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING MID LATITUDE CYCLONE. ONCE THE INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A COOLER AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT COOLER DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION...AND AN AIR MASS CHANGE OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOW TO MID 60S EACH DAY RESPECTIVELY. SUNDAY COULD SEE A BRIEF REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES...AS WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE RAIN CHANCES OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMING FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG IT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 830 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 A COUPLE OF LINES OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE FIRST LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 14 AND 17Z FROM WEST TO EAST. A LOT OF THIS CONVECTION IS ELEVATED IN NATURE...SO ONLY A TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS IS EXPECTED...WITH MAINLY A VFR STATUS REIGNING. THE SECOND LINE OF CONVECTION WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 20 AND 01Z. STRONGER EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS LINE...WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR EXPECTED. LOWER CEILINGS WILL THEN SCATTER OUT IN THE EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...LINGERING THE LONGEST IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS WILL BE COMMON TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
830 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 830 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 HAVE FRESHENED UP THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS FIRST WAVE OF ACTIVITY LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 10 AM AND 1 PM. ONCE THIS MOVES THROUGH...MORE OF A LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA. THIS WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST THE LONGEST. THERE LIKELY NOT BE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION...HOWEVER AT LEAST SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BUILD IN A SMALL WINDOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE LINE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. EMBEDDED CELLS WITHIN THIS LINE WILL POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PIVOTING ACROSS THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE CAROLINA COAST. ALOFT...A MASSIVE TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FOUND ACROSS THE WEST COAST. WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN SEVERAL BOUTS OF THUNDER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT...AS A LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP ACROSS THE AREA...ALLOWING A MORE SUBTLE SURFACE WARM FRONT TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE COOLER VALLEY AIR HAS MIXED OUT...WITH ONLY A FEW SPOTS HANGING ONTO THE 40S. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING IN THE 50S...WITH EVEN A FEW 60S ALSO NOTED. AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...AS STOUT INTERMITTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WHILE THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AS WELL AS THE INFLUENCE FROM CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SOME UNCERTAINTY. AS SUCH...HAVE RELIED ON A GENERAL BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE. EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE AREA...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. POPS THEN REALLY RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE FIRST SHORT WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED AS LEAN...HOWEVER THE DYNAMICS AND SUBSEQUENT WIND PROFILE REMAIN BEEFY. THE STORM MODE LOOKS MORE SUPERCELLULAR...AND WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME ISOLATED CELLS ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY EXHIBITING SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS. WET BULB AND FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE NEAR OR BELOW 9K FEET...WHICH WILL MAKE UP FOR THE LACK OF MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS HAMPERED BY THE LIMITED INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH 40 TO 50 KTS OF WIND AT 4 TO 5K FEET OFF OF THE GROUND. CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO MORE OF SEVERAL LINES OR ELONGATED CLUSTERS TOWARDS DUSK AS THE CORE OF THE FORCING MOVES IN OVERHEAD. PWATS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...HOWEVER ANY TRAINING CELLS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PUT DOWN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN PLACES. ONCE THE FIRST WAVE MOVES OUT LATER THIS EVENING...A BRIEF REPRIEVE WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE MOVES IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS...WITH AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AND GOOD DYNAMICS DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN AND THE EVOLUTION OF WEATHER SYSTEMS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LARGE AND VERY ENERGETIC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH OR WEAK FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS UPPER LOW WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OF EASTERN KENTUCKY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. A SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THEN ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL EVOLVE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY DRAGS A SLUGGISH FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS AN AREA EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WOULD BE OUR SECOND WEATHER MAKER IN THE EXTENDED...SHOULD THE MODELS PROVE TO BE CORRECT. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM FORMATION WITH BOTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEMS THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS SHOWING UP...AND WITH STRONG MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PERIODS WILL FEATURE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR NOW...WITH GENERAL RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS EASTERN KENTUCKY LIES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING MID LATITUDE CYCLONE. ONCE THE INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A COOLER AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT COOLER DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION...AND AN AIR MASS CHANGE OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOW TO MID 60S EACH DAY RESPECTIVELY. SUNDAY COULD SEE A BRIEF REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES...AS WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE RAIN CHANCES OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMING FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG IT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 830 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 A COUPLE OF LINES OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE FIRST LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 14 AND 17Z FROM WEST TO EAST. A LOT OF THIS CONVECTION IS ELEVATED IN NATURE...SO ONLY A TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS IS EXPECTED...WITH MAINLY A VFR STATUS REIGNING. THE SECOND LINE OF CONVECTION WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 20 AND 01Z. STRONGER EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS LINE...WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR EXPECTED. LOWER CEILINGS WILL THEN SCATTER OUT IN THE EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...LINGERING THE LONGEST IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS WILL BE COMMON TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
823 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 .DISCUSSION... QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST. DID MENTION HEAVY RAIN...BUT ANY MORE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ISOLATED...AS CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE SOME WEAKENING. TEMPS ADJUSTED...AS THEY WILL BE SLOWER TO WARM WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...BUT SHOULD RECOVER FAST IN THE AFTERNOON. /14/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/ AVIATION... FOR THE 06/12Z TAFS...INTENSE LINE OF TSTMS AFFECTING TYR/GGG/SHV TO BEGIN THIS TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR CIGS...REDUCED VSBYS AND WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35-40KTS WITH THIS LINE OF CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE VCNTY SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED THIS MORNING BUT IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT TXK/ELD AS CONVECTION MOVES SOUTH. LFK/MLU TERMINALS MAY STILL BE UNDER THE GUN AS LINE OF TSTMS MOVES SOUTH AND EAST. CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WRAP UP BY LATE MORNING ALONG THE I-20 TERMINALS AND EARLY AFTERNOON FARTHER SOUTH AT LFK. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM THE SOUTH OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WITH SPEEDS FROM 5-10 KTS BUT WIDELY VARYING WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN AREAS OF CONVECTION. FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE A CONCERN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WINDS DROP OFF OVERNIGHT AND GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. /19/ PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/ DISCUSSION... WILL BE BRIEF THIS MORNING AS STRONG CONVECTION ENTERING OUR CWA AND THE LATENESS OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z ECMWF WILL NOT ALLOW FOR A LENGTHY DISCUSSION. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A 45KT LOW LEVEL JET IS HELPING TO FEED THIS STRONG TO SOMETIMES SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY OF S OK/SW AR INTO N TX ATTM. THREW OUT THE 00Z NAM OUTPUT AS IT HAS A POOR HANDLING OF CURRENT CONVECTION. TODAY`S POP WAS BASED ON THE HRRR/GFS/ECMWF/CMC OUTPUT WHICH WARRANTS HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR REGION TODAY. SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF OUR REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE CONVECTION TODAY AND WHILE THIS IS WARRANTED...DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SEVERE CONVECTION WITH THIS COMPLEX. HOWEVER...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND SVR WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IF THE HRRR MODEL PANS OUT...THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD SWING THROUGH OUR ENTIRE CWA TODAY BUT REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW LEFT BEHIND FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION AND THE DEGREE OF AFTERNOON HEATING WE ARE ABLE TO SEE. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR NORTHERN MOST ZONES OVERNIGHT AS PROGS SUGGEST THAT WE COULD SEE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OVERNIGHT BUT AGAIN...THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH A WEAK BOUNDARY CAN REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. LOW POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND ANY CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO AFTERNOON HEATING. FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE PROGS REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT CONCERNING TIMING OF OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES. THE 00Z GFS REMAINS THE FAST OUTLIER SO HAVE TRENDED TEMPS/POPS TO THE 00Z ECMWF/CMC RUNS WHICH POINT TO A SLOWER TROUGH EJECTION FROM THE WEST AND SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT INTO OUR REGION. THIS RESULT IN A WET WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 85 69 91 70 91 / 50 20 20 10 10 MLU 84 66 90 67 91 / 50 30 20 10 20 DEQ 82 63 89 65 88 / 40 40 20 10 10 TXK 84 67 90 69 88 / 40 40 20 10 10 ELD 83 64 88 66 88 / 40 40 20 10 10 TYR 85 70 91 71 91 / 60 20 10 10 10 GGG 85 70 91 69 91 / 60 20 10 10 10 LFK 87 69 92 70 91 / 70 20 10 10 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
701 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 .AVIATION... FOR THE 06/12Z TAFS...INTENSE LINE OF TSTMS AFFECTING TYR/GGG/SHV TO BEGIN THIS TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR CIGS...REDUCED VSBYS AND WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35-40KTS WITH THIS LINE OF CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE VCNTY SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED THIS MORNING BUT IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT TXK/ELD AS CONVECTION MOVES SOUTH. LFK/MLU TERMINALS MAY STILL BE UNDER THE GUN AS LINE OF TSTMS MOVES SOUTH AND EAST. CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WRAP UP BY LATE MORNING ALONG THE I-20 TERMINALS AND EARLY AFTERNOON FARTHER SOUTH AT LFK. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM THE SOUTH OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WITH SPEEDS FROM 5-10 KTS BUT WIDELY VARYING WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN AREAS OF CONVECTION. FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE A CONCERN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WINDS DROP OFF OVERNIGHT AND GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. /19/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/ DISCUSSION... WILL BE BRIEF THIS MORNING AS STRONG CONVECTION ENTERING OUR CWA AND THE LATENESS OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z ECMWF WILL NOT ALLOW FOR A LENGTHY DISCUSSION. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A 45KT LOW LEVEL JET IS HELPING TO FEED THIS STRONG TO SOMETIMES SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY OF S OK/SW AR INTO N TX ATTM. THREW OUT THE 00Z NAM OUTPUT AS IT HAS A POOR HANDLING OF CURRENT CONVECTION. TODAY`S POP WAS BASED ON THE HRRR/GFS/ECMWF/CMC OUTPUT WHICH WARRANTS HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR REGION TODAY. SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF OUR REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE CONVECTION TODAY AND WHILE THIS IS WARRANTED...DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SEVERE CONVECTION WITH THIS COMPLEX. HOWEVER...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND SVR WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IF THE HRRR MODEL PANS OUT...THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD SWING THROUGH OUR ENTIRE CWA TODAY BUT REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW LEFT BEHIND FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION AND THE DEGREE OF AFTERNOON HEATING WE ARE ABLE TO SEE. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR NORTHERN MOST ZONES OVERNIGHT AS PROGS SUGGEST THAT WE COULD SEE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OVERNIGHT BUT AGAIN...THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH A WEAK BOUNDARY CAN REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. LOW POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND ANY CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO AFTERNOON HEATING. FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE PROGS REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT CONCERNING TIMING OF OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES. THE 00Z GFS REMAINS THE FAST OUTLIER SO HAVE TRENDED TEMPS/POPS TO THE 00Z ECMWF/CMC RUNS WHICH POINT TO A SLOWER TROUGH EJECTION FROM THE WEST AND SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT INTO OUR REGION. THIS RESULT IN A WET WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 85 69 91 70 91 / 50 20 20 10 10 MLU 84 66 90 67 91 / 50 30 20 10 20 DEQ 82 63 89 65 88 / 40 40 20 10 10 TXK 84 67 90 69 88 / 50 40 20 10 10 ELD 83 64 88 66 88 / 50 40 20 10 10 TYR 85 70 91 71 91 / 50 20 10 10 10 GGG 85 70 91 69 91 / 50 20 10 10 10 LFK 87 69 92 70 91 / 40 20 10 10 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
732 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NW ONTARIO WITH A BROAD TROUGH DOMINATING THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. A WEAK SHRTWV WAS SLIDING THROUGH UPPER MI WHILE A MUCH STRONGER UPSTREAM SHRTWV LOBE WAS LOCATED OVER N CNTRL MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILED OVER UPPER MI AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH INTO NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NE MN. ALTHOUGH MID CLOUDS WERE SPREADING ACROSS W UPPER MI AND 850 MB TEMPS REMAINED NEAR -3C...RELATIVELY DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD DECK HAS LIMITED ANY LAKE EFFECT PCPN. TODAY...EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND SFC HEATING FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 50 AS WAA AND BREEZY SW WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD THE SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH/FRONT ADVANCE TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PCPN...WITH MOST OF THE RAIN HOLDING OFF OVER THE WEST AFTER 00Z/TUE. TONIGHT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE INFLOW AND ONLY MODERATE 700-300 QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...POPS WERE LOWERED A BIT INTO THE 40-60 RANGE GREATEST OVER THE NW THIS EVENING AND OVER THE ERN CWA LATE. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH SO THAT NO SNOW IS EXPECTED AS THE COLDER AIR ONLY MOVES IN AFTER THE FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE DEPART TO THE EAST. ANY PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.1 INCH. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 WET/UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LINGER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE SECOND HALF AS THE PESKY LOW OVER ONTARIO FINALLY EXITS INTO CENTRAL AND N QUEBEC. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOR TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W THIRD OF THE CWA AS THE NEARLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO GETS AS CLOSE AS IT/S GOING TO TO UPPER MI...WITH THE PRIMARY TROUGH EXTENDING ALL THE WAY DOWN THROUGH IL AT 18Z TUESDAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE MODEST AROUND 0 TO 4C...AND WITH SFC TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ON W-WSW WINDS...SNOW IS BASICALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION AT THIS POINT. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW AS COOLER AIR SLIDES IN BEHIND THE EXITING SFC-500MB LOW. EXPECT THE LOW TO SHIFT BACK UP TO N ONTARIO BY 00Z THURSDAY. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO THE -3 TO -8C RANGE ON UPSLOPE W-WNW LOW LEVEL WINDS. AN INCREASE PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN WINDS HOVERING AROUND 20KTS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. GUSTS NEAR 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. DRIER AIR WILL INVADE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA...AND THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTS E. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LOOK FOR SOME RETURN FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A SFC LOW/TROUGH MOVING FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT 18Z SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AT THE EARLIEST. A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION MAY BE IN THE CARDS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 732 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR LINGERING THROUGH TODAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME/HEATING MIXING. LATER TOWARD SUNSET...EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND DEEP LOW PRES IN NW ONTARIO. SOME -SHRA WILL IMPACT MAINLY CMX. IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW OR HEAVIER RAIN...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AT CMX...WHICH WILL BE BE CLOSER TO THE STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 A SURFACE LOW ROTATING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT AND GENERALLY SW WINDS OF 15-30KTS TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY (UP TO 30KTS)...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND DECREASES WINDS BELOW 20KTS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...JLB MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
630 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. DECIDED TO UPDATE TO ADD THOSE IN. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES OTHER THAN A SMALL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD ARE PCPN CHANCES TONIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. OUR AREA IS STILL IN STRONG NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW...WITH A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A TROUGH TO THE EAST. SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS DID OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TODAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TODAY...BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS SUNDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS OF 67-70 IN WESTERN IOWA AND MAINLY LOWER 70S IN EASTERN NEBRASKA. YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRACK DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL GENERATE MAINLY MID LEVEL LIFT. INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY WEAK THOUGH AND NOT AS DEEP AS IT WAS SUNDAY. KEPT POPS IN THE ISOLATED CATEGORY AND ENDED THESE BY AROUND 09Z. LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S. THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY. TUESDAY IS PROBABLY GOING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH LOWER AND MID 70S IN EASTERN NEBRASKA...UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IN WESTERN IOWA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR WEDNESDAY...BUT MIXING DOES NOT LOOK AS GOOD. SO WE EXPECT HIGHS A A FEW DEGREES COOLER. THOUGHT ABOUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT STARTING OUT THIS PERIOD...THEN SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES BY THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST PCPN THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE DOWN ACROSS MISSOURI AND KANSAS...THE SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA COULD SEE RAIN TOTALS UP TO HALF AN INCH FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS SEEMED TOO WET THOUGH AND WENT CLOSER TO VALUES SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF. DID NOT MENTION ANY PCPN FOR FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 VFR COND EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MILLER SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
845 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 832 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 A FEW LIGHT ECHOS STARTING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN MONTANA WHILE BAND OF CIRRUS WITH STRONG JET CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA. LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH THEY MAY PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS HAS BEEN ADDRESSED BY ADDING LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER UP WITH CURRENT TREND. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 11Z RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN H300 N-S JET AROUND 135 KTS LYING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ONGOING 12Z RAOB ALREADY CLOSE TO 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK. BAND OF JET STREAM CIRRUS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS PARALLELING THIS JET AND MOVING SOUTHEAST. SURFACE WINDS AT KBIS WITHIN THE PAST HOUR GUSTING TO 20 KTS BRIEFLY. SO EXPECT ANOTHER BREEZY DAY. ADJUSTED CLOUDS. OTHERWISE CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY...VERY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A 140KT JET STREAM MOVING TOWARDS/OVER THE REGION...AND AS WE REMAIN IN BETWEEN A DEEP UPPER LOW SOUTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY AND A BROAD RIDGE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. SUBTLE EMBEDDED WAVES CONTINUE TO EITHER RIDE OVER THE RIDGE OR SPIRAL AROUND THE LOW THEN PROCEED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...RIGHT NOW MAINLY RESULTING IN SCT-BKN AREAS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. A MORE DEFINED MID LEVEL IMPULSE...NOW CROSSING THE ALBERTA ROCKIES...WILL APPROACH AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN EMBEDDED UPPER JET STREAK ACROSS THE WEST...WILL HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...EVENTUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING ACROSS WESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT EAST WITH THE UPPER JET STREAK...BUT ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS MID LEVEL FORCING WANES. SHOWERS WILL BE FAST MOVING SO NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN REGARDS TO ACCUMULATION. SOME ELEVATED CAPE IS INDICATED BY MODELS. WHILE WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...CAPE IS RATHER LIMITED SO WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. FIGURED WE CAN ALWAYS ADD IF NEEDED IF LIGHTNING STRIKES BEGIN TO POP UP UPSTREAM OFF TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...BOUNDARY LAYER AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED HIGH PERCENTAGE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST...WENT A TAD COOLER/SIMILAR HIGHS OVER MY SOUTHWEST THIRD. MODELS PERFORMED FAIRLY WELL YESTERDAY WITH THE WINDS. WE EVENTUALLY REACHED ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND GUSTS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE BUFKIT INDICATED OVER MUCH OF THE ORIGINAL ADVISORY AREA. FOR TODAY...BOTH THE 00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT KEEP THE 40KT + WIND GUSTS ABOVE THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER. SO WHILE IT WILL BE BREEZY...PEAK WINDS WILL BE LOWER THAN WHAT OCCURRED SUNDAY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...MORE SO GUSTING WITHIN THE 30S MPH INSTEAD OF IN THE 40S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA BEGINNING TO FILL AND DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST. WHAT FOLLOWS IS A TRANSITION TO A RATHER FAST H500 FLOW REGIME THAT RESULTS IN A RATHER DRY WEATHER PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES DO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN...ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY. OTHERWISE THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN COOL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATING TO THE 60S SATURDAY. LOW MAINLY IN THE 30S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO CIGS LOWERING NEAR MVFR. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN PICK UP BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...PEAK GUSTS NEAR 30-35KTS. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JJS SHORT TERM...NH LONG TERM...WAA AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
645 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 11Z RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN H300 N-S JET AROUND 135 KTS LYING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ONGOING 12Z RAOB ALREADY CLOSE TO 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK. BAND OF JET STREAM CIRRUS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS PARALLELING THIS JET AND MOVING SOUTHEAST. SURFACE WINDS AT KBIS WITHIN THE PAST HOUR GUSTING TO 20 KTS BRIEFLY. SO EXPECT ANOTHER BREEZY DAY. ADJUSTED CLOUDS. OTHERWISE CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY...VERY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A 140KT JET STREAM MOVING TOWARDS/OVER THE REGION...AND AS WE REMAIN IN BETWEEN A DEEP UPPER LOW SOUTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY AND A BROAD RIDGE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. SUBTLE EMBEDDED WAVES CONTINUE TO EITHER RIDE OVER THE RIDGE OR SPIRAL AROUND THE LOW THEN PROCEED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...RIGHT NOW MAINLY RESULTING IN SCT-BKN AREAS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. A MORE DEFINED MID LEVEL IMPULSE...NOW CROSSING THE ALBERTA ROCKIES...WILL APPROACH AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN EMBEDDED UPPER JET STREAK ACROSS THE WEST...WILL HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...EVENTUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING ACROSS WESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT EAST WITH THE UPPER JET STREAK...BUT ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS MID LEVEL FORCING WANES. SHOWERS WILL BE FAST MOVING SO NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN REGARDS TO ACCUMULATION. SOME ELEVATED CAPE IS INDICATED BY MODELS. WHILE WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...CAPE IS RATHER LIMITED SO WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. FIGURED WE CAN ALWAYS ADD IF NEEDED IF LIGHTNING STRIKES BEGIN TO POP UP UPSTREAM OFF TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...BOUNDARY LAYER AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED HIGH PERCENTAGE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST...WENT A TAD COOLER/SIMILAR HIGHS OVER MY SOUTHWEST THIRD. MODELS PERFORMED FAIRLY WELL YESTERDAY WITH THE WINDS. WE EVENTUALLY REACHED ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND GUSTS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE BUFKIT INDICATED OVER MUCH OF THE ORIGINAL ADVISORY AREA. FOR TODAY...BOTH THE 00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT KEEP THE 40KT + WIND GUSTS ABOVE THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER. SO WHILE IT WILL BE BREEZY...PEAK WINDS WILL BE LOWER THAN WHAT OCCURRED SUNDAY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...MORE SO GUSTING WITHIN THE 30S MPH INSTEAD OF IN THE 40S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA BEGINNING TO FILL AND DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST. WHAT FOLLOWS IS A TRANSITION TO A RATHER FAST H500 FLOW REGIME THAT RESULTS IN A RATHER DRY WEATHER PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES DO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN...ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY. OTHERWISE THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN COOL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATING TO THE 60S SATURDAY. LOW MAINLY IN THE 30S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO CIGS LOWERING NEAR MVFR. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN PICK UP BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...PEAK GUSTS NEAR 30-35KTS. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...WAA SHORT TERM...NH LONG TERM...WAA AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
903 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MOISTURE INCREASES WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MUCH MORE ACTIVE AUTUMN PATTERN...AS SPOKES OF ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAXIMUMS ROTATE AROUND THE BROAD 500 MB TROF OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. IN THE MID MORNING UPDATE...WAS A BIT FASTER INTRODUCING POPS FROM SW TO NE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THE INITIAL SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY NEAR 13Z. YET...HARD TO FIGURE WHEN THERE WILL BE LULLS BETWEEN CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THIS AFTERNOON. VAD WINDS AT 925 MB AT RLX HAVE JUST INCREASED TO 30 KNOTS. INCREASED SYNOPTIC SURFACE WINDS TODAY. THE MAIN DYNAMICS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING MOVING WEST TO EAST. CONVECTION DRIVEN BY DYNAMICS RATHER THAN SURFACE DEVELOPED INSTABILITY. 11Z RAP HAS ONLY ABOUT 500 TO 700 J/KG CAPE DEVELOPING. FIGURING CELL MOVEMENT WILL BE 40 TO 45 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. WITH FAST MOVEMENT NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT ANY FLOOD POTENTIAL. WAS A BIT FASTER REDUCING POPS THIS EVENING IN THE OHIO VALLEY AS DYNAMICS MOVES EAST. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS PERIOD...TRANSITIONING FROM A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW AFTER MID WEEK. THIS BECOMES A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH NO GREAT TEMPERATURE CHANGES AS FRONTAL SYSTEMS MEANDER BACK AND FORTH. WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO OPEN WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THERE WILL BE GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS. ONE SUCH FRONTAL SYSTEM COMES ACROSS TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. SOME INSTABILITY IS INDICATED BY GUIDANCE SO WILL PUT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. MODELS ARE QUICKER EXITING THIS FRONT...SO HAVE TAPERED OFF POPS QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT DOWN THIS WAY...AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES FLATTER. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM COMES IN THURSDAY...AND THIS IS ALSO HANDLED FAIRLY WELL BY THE MODELS. BY THIS TIME...WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE ZONAL...THE FRONT WILL BECOME ORIENTED MORE EAST TO WEST AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA...AND GIVE US A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. MODELS INDICATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF COMING IN WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT AT THIS TIME FRAME...WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY WATER ISSUES. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... USED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THIS WOULD KEEP A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE REGION AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE AREA. THIS FRONT WOULD RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. A WAVE WOULD THEN MOVE ALONG THE FRONT PUSHING IT BACK SOUTHWARD A BIT ON FRIDAY...ONLY TO RETURN NORTHWARD AGAIN WITH ANOTHER WAVE ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SPC HAS EXTENDED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE HTS TERMINAL FOR TODAY. EXPECTING THE FIRST LINE OF CONVECTION TO ENTER THE WESTERN TERMINALS AFTER 17Z...WITH INDICATIONS THAT THIS COULD BE A LINE OF STORMS CARRYING 30KT GUSTS AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. USED TEMPO GROUPS FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT DOWNPLAY THE THUNDER AND GUST THREAT FOR THE MOUNTAIN TERMINALS AT BKW AND EKN. SOME WIND TODAY WILL KEEP THE VISIBILITIES UP EVEN DURING RAIN AT MOST PLACES THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. BEYOND THAT...WITH THE RAIN EXITING AND WIND COMING DOWN...FEEL IFR OR WORSE FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT DESPITE SOME CLOUD COVER HANGING IN PLACE GIVEN THE RECEIVED RAINFALL. CONFIDENCE TAKES A HIT IN THIS SCENARIO HOWEVER BUT FEEL IT IS WORTH A MENTION AT SOME LOCATIONS. LAMP GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT THIS...ALTHOUGH THE MET/MAV DOES. EXPECTING DAYTIME GUSTS IN THE 15-20KT RANGE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TODAY EVEN WITHOUT THUNDERSTORM INFLUENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTION TIMING COULD VARY. FOG LATE MAY NOT DEVELOP. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 10/06/14 UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS OR STORMS MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. ANOTHER IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/26 NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1128 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS LOW WILL IMPACT PENNSYLVANIA TODAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO PENNSYLVANIA FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN A CLIPPER LOW COULD TRACK ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A RELATIVELY BRIEF...SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE/CLEARING /BENEATH THE LEFT REAR QUAD OF A 90 KT 300MB JETLET/ WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING WEAK SHORTWAVE. WATER VAPOR LOOP LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TURNING EAST ACRS THE MID MISS VALLEY. STRONG SOUTHERLY LL JET AND ASSOC WAA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN PA LATE TODAY...SPREADING LAYERED CLOUDS AND THE CHC OF SHOWERS INTO THE ALLEGHENY MTNS BY EARLY THIS EVENING. FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST HRRR AND SIMILAR SET OF PREVIOUS GRIDDED FCST TO RE-INTRODUCE SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN MTS 21-22Z TODAY...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES BEGINNING AROUND 23Z. THE SUNSHINE...COMBINED WITH RISING TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A MUCH MILDER DAY THAN SUNDAY. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH A HIGH IN THE L60S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...AND U60S TO LOWER 70S THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY. INCREASING MIXING WITHIN DEEPENING BLYR SHOULD DRAW SOME FAIRLY GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC THIS AFTN. BUKFIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AFOREMENTIONED...POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NE ACROSS WESTERN PA TONIGHT. STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ALONG AXIS OF ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY LL JET SHOULD PRODUCE A NEAR CERTAINTY OF SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. GEFS 850 MFLUX VALUES PEAK BTWN 00Z-06Z WITH PASSAGE OF STRONG LL JET. SOME MEAGER CAPES IN THE MDL DATA ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU THIS EVENING...SO HAVE INCLUDED SCHC OF THUNDER THERE. HAVE COVERED THE SE COUNTIES WITH LOWER /CHC/ POPS LATE TONIGHT...AS BEST FORCING IMPLIED BY MDL 500-300MB Q-VEC CONVERGENCE LIFTS NORTH BEFORE REACHING EASTERN PA. CLOUD COVER AND SURGE OF HIGHER DWPTS ON SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSE TO 50F. ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IN THE SUCCESSION OF SHORTWAVES SHOULD OCCUR TUESDAY...AS TONIGHT/S SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH OF PA AND NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD PA BY LATE IN THE DAY. PTSUNNY SKIES EARLY IN THE DAY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHC OF SHOWERS TOWARD EVENING...AS STRONG WAA OVERSPREADS THE REGION AT NOSE OF ANOMALOUS LL JET. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY SHOULD BE AOA CLIMO AVERAGES BASED ON ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS. HARD TO SEE HOW ANY OF CENTRAL PA ESCAPES RAINFALL TUE NIGHT...WHEN ALL MDL DATA TRACK NOSE OF ANOMALOUS LL JET ACROSS THE AREA. GEFS AND SREF PLUMES SUPPORT CATEGORCIAL POPS EVERYWHERE. SMALL CAPES COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE COULD AGAIN LEAD TO THE CHC OF THUNDER TUES NIGHT. FAST MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND PWATS ONLY SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL SHOULD LEAD TO UNIMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS...LIKELY IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WX STILL SEEMS PROBABLE FROM WED INTO EARLY THURS AS THE DEEP LOW/TROUGH WEAKENS AND PIVOTS NEWD INTO NRN QUEBEC. THE 00Z MED RANGE GUIDANCE IS IMPLYING THE LIKELY PASSAGE OF A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER WITH CHC OF SHRA LATE THU/THU NIGHT. A TRAILING WEST-EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BNDRY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM COULD STALL OUT JUST S OF PA...POTENTIALLY PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. THERE ARE SOME N-S PLACEMENT DIFFS IN THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS WHICH WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST THE SRN 1/2 OF THE AREA COULD SEE A LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY SAT. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LARGE AREA OF CLEARING /VFR/ OVER ERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENN WILL WORK EASTWARD INTO PA DURING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MORE SHOWERS TONIGHT /AND AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS/...AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS WILL BEGINN BETWEEN 21-22Z THEN MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY BY 23-01Z. EXPECT SOME CLEARING AGAIN TUE AFT...BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE TUE/EARLY WED. OUTLOOK... TUE...FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM WEST...BRINGING SCT SHRA. ISO TSRA POSS TUE AFTERNOON. CIG/VSBY IMPACTS LIKELY IN WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY. WED-THU...MVFR CIGS/SCT SHRA PSBL NW WED IMPROVING CONDITION WED INTO THURS MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. FRI...CIG REDUCTIONS IN RAIN POSSIBLE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
859 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 .MESOSCALE UPDATE... MOSTLY SUB SEVERE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS AS SHORT WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE AREA. PEA TO MARBLE SIZED HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER STORMS. ENHANCED VILS HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY BELOW 5 G/M3. A MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX ON THE ORDER OF 130 KNOTS IS POISED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING ALREADY NOSING DOWN INTO MISSOURI. A PIECE OF THIS ENERGY EJECTS DOWN ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SO WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SEVERE STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. TOTAL TOTALS CLIMB TO 56 ON THE RUC13 BY 22Z WITH A SWEAT OF 432 WITH GOOD MID LEVEL DRYING. LOOKING AT THE HODOGRAPH PROFILE AN ISOLATED TWISTER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ BOYD 01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
548 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2014 .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... Issued at 548 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 The storms over Southwest Indiana are becoming more elevated with limited hail potential. Gust front continues to arc out ahead of convection suggesting that the balance in the upshear flow is diminishing the wind threat over Southwest Indiana now. Lapse rates may still be enough to produce 1/2 to 3/4 inch hail, but with the loss of insolation (sunshine), any significant lift would have to be carried by the jet max. Most storms, including the storm over Mclean County KY, continue to remain below severe limits. Appears that Significant Weather Advisories (SPS) handle the situation at this time, given the sharp low level lapse rates. Although LAPS surface based helicity remains high (>175 m2/s2), LAPS Surface CAPE continues to diminish sharply over Southeast MO, Southern IL, and Southwest Indiana. The best surace based CAPE continues south and east of the Ohio River as of 5 pm with values between 600-1200 noted in a NW-SE gradient toward the TN state line. The 3km HRRR runs from 19z-21z show the current convection departing the CWA by 03z, with weaker, but more widespread precipitation after 06z. Most severe threat should diminish after 00z. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 115 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 The biggest short term challenge will be thunderstorm forecasting this afternoon and evening. Large scale ascent ahead of short wave energy seen on wv imagery diving across MO will help drive cold front into/across FA. Surge of surface Td`s still in the mid-upr 50s across ptns wky will be prime area of potential development, and SPC has that outlooked for slgt risk. Am seeing beginnings of developing convection across ptns of Central IL attm, will monitor closely. Some concern that dry air represented by 40s Td`s just on our doorstep will overtake column and cut off ability of storms to develop and esp grow as column dries with time/fropa. Close weather watch will commence thru press time for final call on near term pops/coverage. After that, another trof energy induced pop comes in late tonight- early tmrw. Following that, we have a dry pause from late Tuesday thru Wednesday. The next biggest overall pcpn chance begins Wed night as a smaller chance incoming, posing to continue and increase into the long term portion of the forecast. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 115 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2014 High confidence in a wet unsettled extended forecast. Medium to low confidence on exact timing of synoptic scale features...especially this weekend. Started off with a goal to reduce pops where the least chances will be but failed to accomplish this due to the fronts meandering over the area. We start off Thursday with a warm front lifting into the area then stalling as high pressure north pushes cold air south to collide with the warm front. This pushes the front a little south of the area Friday night then lifts through the area Saturday into Sunday. Then finally Sunday night a strong cold front approaches the area bringing storms back to the area Sunday night into Monday. An unusual wet pattern will definitely plague the area with the possibility of strong storms especially going into next week. Temperatures will likely fall slight below normal but as warm fronts lift north of the area we will return to slightly above normal briefly. && .AVIATION... Issued at 115 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 VFR conditions may yield to developing convection in the pm heat today, otherwise should be weather free until late tonight-early tmrw, when showers/storms move in. Cigs and/or vsbys may restrict to MVFR at times then. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
245 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1150 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 ITS A DIFFICULT DAY TO ANTICIPATE SPECIFIC CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION VERY FAR IN ADVANCE FOR A FORECAST. HAVE AGAIN UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. WILL EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF PRECIP LATER TODAY IS LOW. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1014 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 UPDATED TO BLEND LATEST OBS INTO THE FORECAST. THIS INCLUDES RADAR...WITH FAST MOVING CONVECTION AFFECTING THE REGION THIS MORNING. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST. UPDATE ISSUED AT 830 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 HAVE FRESHENED UP THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS FIRST WAVE OF ACTIVITY LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 10 AM AND 1 PM. ONCE THIS MOVES THROUGH...MORE OF A LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA. THIS WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST THE LONGEST. THERE LIKELY NOT BE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION...HOWEVER AT LEAST SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BUILD IN A SMALL WINDOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE LINE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. EMBEDDED CELLS WITHIN THIS LINE WILL POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PIVOTING ACROSS THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE CAROLINA COAST. ALOFT...A MASSIVE TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FOUND ACROSS THE WEST COAST. WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN SEVERAL BOUTS OF THUNDER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT...AS A LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP ACROSS THE AREA...ALLOWING A MORE SUBTLE SURFACE WARM FRONT TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE COOLER VALLEY AIR HAS MIXED OUT...WITH ONLY A FEW SPOTS HANGING ONTO THE 40S. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING IN THE 50S...WITH EVEN A FEW 60S ALSO NOTED. AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...AS STOUT INTERMITTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WHILE THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AS WELL AS THE INFLUENCE FROM CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SOME UNCERTAINTY. AS SUCH...HAVE RELIED ON A GENERAL BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE. EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE AREA...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. POPS THEN REALLY RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE FIRST SHORT WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED AS LEAN...HOWEVER THE DYNAMICS AND SUBSEQUENT WIND PROFILE REMAIN BEEFY. THE STORM MODE LOOKS MORE SUPERCELLULAR...AND WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME ISOLATED CELLS ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY EXHIBITING SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS. WET BULB AND FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE NEAR OR BELOW 9K FEET...WHICH WILL MAKE UP FOR THE LACK OF MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS HAMPERED BY THE LIMITED INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH 40 TO 50 KTS OF WIND AT 4 TO 5K FEET OFF OF THE GROUND. CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO MORE OF SEVERAL LINES OR ELONGATED CLUSTERS TOWARDS DUSK AS THE CORE OF THE FORCING MOVES IN OVERHEAD. PWATS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...HOWEVER ANY TRAINING CELLS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PUT DOWN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN PLACES. ONCE THE FIRST WAVE MOVES OUT LATER THIS EVENING...A BRIEF REPRIEVE WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE MOVES IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS...WITH AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AND GOOD DYNAMICS DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT...AT LEAST TO START THE EXTENDED...BEFORE DIVERGING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEY ALL SHOW A VERY DEEP AND LARGE MID LEVEL LOW SPINNING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. A NODE OF THIS WILL BE SWEEPING NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT. AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY START TO COME UP OVER KENTUCKY A SMALLER TROUGH WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY. THIS WESTERN TROUGH WILL OPEN UP AND SEND IT ENERGY EAST INTO THE FAST FLOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL... THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LOW THAN THE GEM AND GFS. THIS STRENGTH ALSO MANIFESTS ITSELF DOWNSTREAM OVER KENTUCKY AS A BIT MORE RIDGING THROUGH THE WEEKEND THAN THE OTHERS. FOR SUNDAY...THE GFS SEEMS MOST OUT OF STEP WITH ITS PATTERN COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS AS IT HAS FLAT AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER KENTUCKY. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF...SUPPORTED BY THE GEM...STARTS TO BRING A FAST MOVING AND QUICKLY DEEPENING TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL FURTHER CONSOLIDATE INTO MONDAY AS A DEEP LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WITH A SWEEP OF ENERGY PRESSING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL FAVOR THE MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND THEN LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL OCCUR AS AMPLE MOISTURE...FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MEETS UP WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY AND A COUPLE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL LIFT INTO KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE AREA AS COLD AIR TO THE NORTH AND WARM TO THE SOUTH MAKES FOR A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE STATE. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH AGAIN AS A BONA FIDE WARM FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP SFC LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHER PLAINS. THIS LATTER SYSTEM WILL THEN LOOK TO SWING ITS ELONGATED COLD FRONT INTO THIS PART OF THE STATE LATER MONDAY. WITH THE FORECAST AREA CAUGHT BETWEEN SEASONS THIS EXTENDED...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...BUT WITH A SMALLER THAN AVERAGE DIURNAL RANGE DUE TO EXTRA CLOUDS AND PCPN AROUND. THE CR GRID LOAD PROVED TO BE AN ADEQUATE START TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS...THOUGH DID ADJUST THE POPS A TAD TOWARD THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION FROM THE ECMWF THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. GIVEN THE FRONTS NEARBY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIODS DID NOT DO TOO MUCH ADJUSTING TO THE TEMPERATURES AS THE TERRAIN IMPACT WILL BE RELATIVELY MUTED...EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN A MODERATE RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 830 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 A COUPLE OF LINES OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE FIRST LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 14 AND 17Z FROM WEST TO EAST. A LOT OF THIS CONVECTION IS ELEVATED IN NATURE...SO ONLY A TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS IS EXPECTED...WITH MAINLY A VFR STATUS REIGNING. THE SECOND LINE OF CONVECTION WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 20 AND 01Z. STRONGER EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS LINE...WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR EXPECTED. LOWER CEILINGS WILL THEN SCATTER OUT IN THE EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...LINGERING THE LONGEST IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS WILL BE COMMON TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1245 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 .AVIATION... STG BOW ECHO LINE OF TSTMS MOVED SOUTH ACROSS AREA THIS AM. STABLE AIR IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH THICK MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS... WILL INHIBIT ANY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU AT LEAST 07/06Z ACROSS AREA...EXCEPT FOR A FEW TRANSIENT LOW CLOUDS. HOWEVER...CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AND WET GROUND ACROSS NE TX...AND LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING OVER NORTH LA... WILL COMBINE FOR POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS ACROSS MUCH OF AREA AFTER 07/06Z. POSSIBLE MCS REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT FURTHER TO THE EAST THAN LAST NIGHT...THUS KELD AND POSSIBLY KMLU COULD SEE LATE NIGHT TSTMS IN DEEP NW FLOW ALOFT. S-SW WINDS INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER 07/14Z SHOULD LIFT ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS FOR REMAINDER OF TUESDAY./VII/. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/ DISCUSSION... WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST AROUND NOON...LOWERING THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND ALSO LOWERING THE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN. THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST FLOW AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT WILL ADDRESS THIS AGAIN WITH THE 4 PM FORECAST. /14/ PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 823 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/ DISCUSSION... QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST. DID MENTION HEAVY RAIN...BUT ANY MORE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ISOLATED...AS CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE SOME WEAKENING. TEMPS ADJUSTED...AS THEY WILL BE SLOWER TO WARM WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...BUT SHOULD RECOVER FAST IN THE AFTERNOON. /14/ PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/ DISCUSSION... WILL BE BRIEF THIS MORNING AS STRONG CONVECTION ENTERING OUR CWA AND THE LATENESS OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z ECMWF WILL NOT ALLOW FOR A LENGTHY DISCUSSION. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A 45KT LOW LEVEL JET IS HELPING TO FEED THIS STRONG TO SOMETIMES SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY OF S OK/SW AR INTO N TX ATTM. THREW OUT THE 00Z NAM OUTPUT AS IT HAS A POOR HANDLING OF CURRENT CONVECTION. TODAY`S POP WAS BASED ON THE HRRR/GFS/ECMWF/CMC OUTPUT WHICH WARRANTS HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR REGION TODAY. SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF OUR REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE CONVECTION TODAY AND WHILE THIS IS WARRANTED...DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SEVERE CONVECTION WITH THIS COMPLEX. HOWEVER...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND SVR WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IF THE HRRR MODEL PANS OUT...THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD SWING THROUGH OUR ENTIRE CWA TODAY BUT REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW LEFT BEHIND FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION AND THE DEGREE OF AFTERNOON HEATING WE ARE ABLE TO SEE. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR NORTHERN MOST ZONES OVERNIGHT AS PROGS SUGGEST THAT WE COULD SEE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OVERNIGHT BUT AGAIN...THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH A WEAK BOUNDARY CAN REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. LOW POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND ANY CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO AFTERNOON HEATING. FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE PROGS REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT CONCERNING TIMING OF OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES. THE 00Z GFS REMAINS THE FAST OUTLIER SO HAVE TRENDED TEMPS/POPS TO THE 00Z ECMWF/CMC RUNS WHICH POINT TO A SLOWER TROUGH EJECTION FROM THE WEST AND SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT INTO OUR REGION. THIS RESULT IN A WET WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 84 69 91 70 91 / 20 20 20 10 10 MLU 83 66 90 67 91 / 20 30 20 10 20 DEQ 82 63 89 65 88 / 30 40 20 10 10 TXK 84 67 90 69 88 / 30 40 20 10 10 ELD 83 64 88 66 88 / 20 40 20 10 10 TYR 84 70 91 71 91 / 20 20 10 10 10 GGG 84 70 91 69 91 / 20 20 10 10 10 LFK 83 69 92 70 91 / 20 20 10 10 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1140 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 .DISCUSSION... WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST AROUND NOON...LOWERING THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND ALSO LOWERING THE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN. THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST FLOW AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT WILL ADDRESS THIS AGAIN WITH THE 4 PM FORECAST. /14/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 823 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/ DISCUSSION... QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST. DID MENTION HEAVY RAIN...BUT ANY MORE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ISOLATED...AS CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE SOME WEAKENING. TEMPS ADJUSTED...AS THEY WILL BE SLOWER TO WARM WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...BUT SHOULD RECOVER FAST IN THE AFTERNOON. /14/ PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/ AVIATION... FOR THE 06/12Z TAFS...INTENSE LINE OF TSTMS AFFECTING TYR/GGG/SHV TO BEGIN THIS TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR CIGS...REDUCED VSBYS AND WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35-40KTS WITH THIS LINE OF CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE VCNTY SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED THIS MORNING BUT IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT TXK/ELD AS CONVECTION MOVES SOUTH. LFK/MLU TERMINALS MAY STILL BE UNDER THE GUN AS LINE OF TSTMS MOVES SOUTH AND EAST. CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WRAP UP BY LATE MORNING ALONG THE I-20 TERMINALS AND EARLY AFTERNOON FARTHER SOUTH AT LFK. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM THE SOUTH OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WITH SPEEDS FROM 5-10 KTS BUT WIDELY VARYING WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN AREAS OF CONVECTION. FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE A CONCERN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WINDS DROP OFF OVERNIGHT AND GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. /19/ PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/ DISCUSSION... WILL BE BRIEF THIS MORNING AS STRONG CONVECTION ENTERING OUR CWA AND THE LATENESS OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z ECMWF WILL NOT ALLOW FOR A LENGTHY DISCUSSION. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A 45KT LOW LEVEL JET IS HELPING TO FEED THIS STRONG TO SOMETIMES SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY OF S OK/SW AR INTO N TX ATTM. THREW OUT THE 00Z NAM OUTPUT AS IT HAS A POOR HANDLING OF CURRENT CONVECTION. TODAY`S POP WAS BASED ON THE HRRR/GFS/ECMWF/CMC OUTPUT WHICH WARRANTS HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR REGION TODAY. SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF OUR REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE CONVECTION TODAY AND WHILE THIS IS WARRANTED...DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SEVERE CONVECTION WITH THIS COMPLEX. HOWEVER...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND SVR WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IF THE HRRR MODEL PANS OUT...THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD SWING THROUGH OUR ENTIRE CWA TODAY BUT REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW LEFT BEHIND FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION AND THE DEGREE OF AFTERNOON HEATING WE ARE ABLE TO SEE. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR NORTHERN MOST ZONES OVERNIGHT AS PROGS SUGGEST THAT WE COULD SEE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OVERNIGHT BUT AGAIN...THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH A WEAK BOUNDARY CAN REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. LOW POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND ANY CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO AFTERNOON HEATING. FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE PROGS REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT CONCERNING TIMING OF OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES. THE 00Z GFS REMAINS THE FAST OUTLIER SO HAVE TRENDED TEMPS/POPS TO THE 00Z ECMWF/CMC RUNS WHICH POINT TO A SLOWER TROUGH EJECTION FROM THE WEST AND SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT INTO OUR REGION. THIS RESULT IN A WET WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 84 69 91 70 91 / 20 20 20 10 10 MLU 83 66 90 67 91 / 20 30 20 10 20 DEQ 82 63 89 65 88 / 30 40 20 10 10 TXK 84 67 90 69 88 / 30 40 20 10 10 ELD 83 64 88 66 88 / 20 40 20 10 10 TYR 84 70 91 71 91 / 20 20 10 10 10 GGG 84 70 91 69 91 / 20 20 10 10 10 LFK 83 69 92 70 91 / 20 20 10 10 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
207 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY...THEN MOVE EAST TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 145 PM UPDATE...THE SKY CONDITIONS NEEDED ADJUSTMENT TO INCREASE THE PERCENTAGES AS THE NAM12 AND RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWED MOISTURE AT 850MBS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE CAR 12Z RAOB AND SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY STRATOCUMULUS POPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF MAINE. MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON WERE RAISED A CATEGORY SHOWING LOWER 60S FOR NORTHERN AREAS AND 60-65 CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS INCLUDING THE COAST. THE LAMP GUIDANCE WAS HANDLING THINGS WELL PER THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND OBS W/A SSW WIND PICKING UP AIDING IN SOME WARMER AIR. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE A LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL EXIST AROUND 850 MB TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHWEST MAINE. AS SUCH, EXPECT FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS TO POP UP AS MIXING OCCURS FROM DAYTIME HEATING. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTH FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER TONIGHT THAN THOSE SEEN LAST NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE, WITH UPPER 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... TUE WILL BEGIN WITH INCREASING CLDNSS AS A LEAD S/WV ALF ASSOCIATED WITH LOW TO MID LVL WARM ADVCN APCHS THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS. SHWRS AND STEADY RN ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM INTO WRN PTNS OF THE FA BY ERLY AFTN AND THEN SPREADS OVR THE REST OF THE REGION BY EVE. INTERMITTENT SHWRS AND DZ AND PATCHY COASTAL FOG WILL CONT LATE TUE NGT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING FIRST S/WV...AND A MUCH STRONGER SECOND S/WV AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW FROM THE GREAT LKS. THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW BY WED MORN...BRINGING A PD OF MDT TO HVY RNFL WHICH SHOULD LAST INTO ERLY AFTN THEN END W TO E ACROSS THE FA LATER IN THE AFT AS AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS N AND A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THE TMG OF THE RNFL AND AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YSTDY`S RN EVENT...WITH AMOUNTS MSLY IN THE 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH RANGE PRIOR TO ENDING...LCLY HIGHER RNFL ALG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE MTNS IN THE BAXTER ST PARK REGION WHERE THERE WILL BE AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT WITH A SSE WIND FIELD. POPS WERE BROUGHT UP THIS UPDATE TO 90 PERCENT DURING THE CORE OF THE EVENT WED MORN. SPEAKING OF WINDS...THEY COULD BE AN ISSUE ON WED...SPCLY ALG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHERE STRONGER WINDS ALF COULD POTENTIALLY MIX DOWN. FCST WINDS WERE INCREASED FOR WED...BUT WILL HOLD OFF BRINGING WINDS UP TO WHAT GUIDANCE IS REALLY SUGGESTING FOR LATER WED...IN THE EVENT MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS LIKE THE OPNL GFS...IS TO STRONG WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW AS IT TRACKS NE ALG THE ST LAWRENCE RVR VLY OF ERN QB PROV. AFT WARMER THAN AVG TEMPS TUE NGT AND WED ACROSS THE REGION...WED NGT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH PTLY TO MSLY CLDY SKIES N AND CLRG SKIES S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THU THRU SAT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER AS A SERIES OF WEAK S/WVS CROSS THE REGION...BRINGING INTERVALS OF CLDNSS AND ATTMS...ISOLD SHWRS TO THE REGION. A WEAK SFC LOW TRACKING OFF THE MID ATLC STATES ON FRI COULD GRAZE COASTAL DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA WITH A BETTER CHC OF SHWRS FRI INTO FRI EVE...BUT FOR NOW...MOST LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS MOST OF THE RNFL WITH THIS SYSTEM S OF THE FA. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL THRU THIS PD...WITH LITTLE OR NO OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NGT DUE TO CONTD GRAD WINDS. EVENTUALLY...STRONG SFC HI PRES FROM THE MIDWEST WILL APCH THE REGION BY SUN...BRINGING MORE IN THE WAY OF FAIR WX...A BETTER CHC OF RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR SUN NGT AS IT CROSSES THE REGION. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS TUE WILL LOWER TO IFR OVRNGT TUE S TO N ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AS LOW ST CLGS MOVE NWRD FROM THE GULF OF ME AND SHWRS/RN MOVE EWRD FROM QB PROV...THEN CONT INTO WED IN RN...RECOVERING TO MVFR SW TO NE AS RN TAPERS TO SHWRS. MOST SITES RECOVER TO VFR BY WED NGT WITH MVFR PERHAPS HANGING ON OVR FAR NRN SITES INTO THU MORN...SUCH AS KFVE. ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THU INTO FRI. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORT TO LONG TERM: WINDS AND WVS SLOWLY INCREASE TUE INTO TUE NGT AS A SRLY WIND FETCH INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS XPCTD TO CROSS THE WATERS LATER WED. WINDS AND WVS COULD REACH SCA CRITERIA AS EARLY AS LATE TUE NGT AND THEN CONT AS LONG AS THU MORN OR SO...SPCLY OVR THE OUTER WATERS. IN ADDITION TO RN...MARINE FOG MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO A MILE OR LESS LATE TUE NGT INTO WED MORN AS DWPTS GREATER THAN GULF OF ME SST`S ARE ADVCTD NWRD OVR THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH BLO SCA CRITERIA BY LATER THU AND REMAIN BLO SCA FRI. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
124 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NW ONTARIO WITH A BROAD TROUGH DOMINATING THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. A WEAK SHRTWV WAS SLIDING THROUGH UPPER MI WHILE A MUCH STRONGER UPSTREAM SHRTWV LOBE WAS LOCATED OVER N CNTRL MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILED OVER UPPER MI AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH INTO NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NE MN. ALTHOUGH MID CLOUDS WERE SPREADING ACROSS W UPPER MI AND 850 MB TEMPS REMAINED NEAR -3C...RELATIVELY DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD DECK HAS LIMITED ANY LAKE EFFECT PCPN. TODAY...EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND SFC HEATING FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 50 AS WAA AND BREEZY SW WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD THE SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH/FRONT ADVANCE TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PCPN...WITH MOST OF THE RAIN HOLDING OFF OVER THE WEST AFTER 00Z/TUE. TONIGHT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE INFLOW AND ONLY MODERATE 700-300 QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...POPS WERE LOWERED A BIT INTO THE 40-60 RANGE GREATEST OVER THE NW THIS EVENING AND OVER THE ERN CWA LATE. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH SO THAT NO SNOW IS EXPECTED AS THE COLDER AIR ONLY MOVES IN AFTER THE FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE DEPART TO THE EAST. ANY PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.1 INCH. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 WET/UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LINGER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE SECOND HALF AS THE PESKY LOW OVER ONTARIO FINALLY EXITS INTO CENTRAL AND N QUEBEC. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOR TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W THIRD OF THE CWA AS THE NEARLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO GETS AS CLOSE AS IT/S GOING TO TO UPPER MI...WITH THE PRIMARY TROUGH EXTENDING ALL THE WAY DOWN THROUGH IL AT 18Z TUESDAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE MODEST AROUND 0 TO 4C...AND WITH SFC TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ON W-WSW WINDS...SNOW IS BASICALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION AT THIS POINT. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW AS COOLER AIR SLIDES IN BEHIND THE EXITING SFC-500MB LOW. EXPECT THE LOW TO SHIFT BACK UP TO N ONTARIO BY 00Z THURSDAY. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO THE -3 TO -8C RANGE ON UPSLOPE W-WNW LOW LEVEL WINDS. AN INCREASE PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN WINDS HOVERING AROUND 20KTS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. GUSTS NEAR 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. DRIER AIR WILL INVADE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA...AND THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTS E. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LOOK FOR SOME RETURN FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A SFC LOW/TROUGH MOVING FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT 18Z SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AT THE EARLIEST. A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION MAY BE IN THE CARDS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR LINGERING THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME/HEATING MIXING. LATER TOWARD SUNSET...EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND DEEP LOW PRES IN NW ONTARIO. SOME -SHRA WILL IMPACT MAINLY CMX. IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW OR HEAVIER RAIN...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AT CMX...WHICH WILL BE BE CLOSER TO THE STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 A SURFACE LOW ROTATING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT AND GENERALLY SW WINDS OF 15-30KTS TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY (UP TO 30KTS)...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND DECREASES WINDS BELOW 20KTS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...07 MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
123 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NW ONTARIO WITH A BROAD TROUGH DOMINATING THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. A WEAK SHRTWV WAS SLIDING THROUGH UPPER MI WHILE A MUCH STRONGER UPSTREAM SHRTWV LOBE WAS LOCATED OVER N CNTRL MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILED OVER UPPER MI AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH INTO NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NE MN. ALTHOUGH MID CLOUDS WERE SPREADING ACROSS W UPPER MI AND 850 MB TEMPS REMAINED NEAR -3C...RELATIVELY DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD DECK HAS LIMITED ANY LAKE EFFECT PCPN. TODAY...EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND SFC HEATING FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 50 AS WAA AND BREEZY SW WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD THE SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH/FRONT ADVANCE TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PCPN...WITH MOST OF THE RAIN HOLDING OFF OVER THE WEST AFTER 00Z/TUE. TONIGHT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE INFLOW AND ONLY MODERATE 700-300 QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...POPS WERE LOWERED A BIT INTO THE 40-60 RANGE GREATEST OVER THE NW THIS EVENING AND OVER THE ERN CWA LATE. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH SO THAT NO SNOW IS EXPECTED AS THE COLDER AIR ONLY MOVES IN AFTER THE FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE DEPART TO THE EAST. ANY PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.1 INCH. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 WET/UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LINGER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE SECOND HALF AS THE PESKY LOW OVER ONTARIO FINALLY EXITS INTO CENTRAL AND N QUEBEC. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOR TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W THIRD OF THE CWA AS THE NEARLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO GETS AS CLOSE AS IT/S GOING TO TO UPPER MI...WITH THE PRIMARY TROUGH EXTENDING ALL THE WAY DOWN THROUGH IL AT 18Z TUESDAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE MODEST AROUND 0 TO 4C...AND WITH SFC TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ON W-WSW WINDS...SNOW IS BASICALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION AT THIS POINT. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW AS COOLER AIR SLIDES IN BEHIND THE EXITING SFC-500MB LOW. EXPECT THE LOW TO SHIFT BACK UP TO N ONTARIO BY 00Z THURSDAY. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO THE -3 TO -8C RANGE ON UPSLOPE W-WNW LOW LEVEL WINDS. AN INCREASE PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN WINDS HOVERING AROUND 20KTS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. GUSTS NEAR 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. DRIER AIR WILL INVADE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA...AND THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTS E. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LOOK FOR SOME RETURN FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A SFC LOW/TROUGH MOVING FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT 18Z SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AT THE EARLIEST. A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION MAY BE IN THE CARDS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 732 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR LINGERING THROUGH TODAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME/HEATING MIXING. LATER TOWARD SUNSET...EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND DEEP LOW PRES IN NW ONTARIO. SOME -SHRA WILL IMPACT MAINLY CMX. IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW OR HEAVIER RAIN...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AT CMX...WHICH WILL BE BE CLOSER TO THE STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 A SURFACE LOW ROTATING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT AND GENERALLY SW WINDS OF 15-30KTS TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY (UP TO 30KTS)...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND DECREASES WINDS BELOW 20KTS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...JLB MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
304 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 LITTLE CHG IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS THE MAIN SHRTWV ALONG THE MN/CANADIAN BORDER MOVES OFF TO THE NE OF MPX CWA. HOWEVER...A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING ONCE THIS SHRTWV ROTATES THRU THE GREAT LAKES. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER SHRTWV WAS EVIDENT ACROSS ND EARLY THIS AFTN. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A SHORT PERIOD WHERE BOTH SHRTWV/S COMBINED AND CREATE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL/EC MN AND INTO WC WI BETWEEN 22-04Z THIS AFTN/EVENING. THIS IS NOTED ON THE LATEST 15Z HRRR DERIVED REFLECTIVITY FORECAST. CURRENTLY THE FORECAST HAS ONLY SPRINKLES IN CENTRAL/EC MN WITH CHC POPS IN WC WI. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO PRECIPITATION AMTS WILL BE MINOR. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT QUIET...BUT TREND TOWARD A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THAT MORE ACTIVE PATTERN COMES WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL VARIABILITY. PATTERN EVOLUTION: CURRENT CLOSED LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO FILL IN AND SHIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WRN RIDGE FLATTENING OUT AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES INTO CENTRAL NOAM ON SATURDAY...A POWERFUL PAC JET WILL START COMING ONSHORE IS WASH/BC...WITH THE FIRST VESTIGES OF THIS JET ENERGY WORKING INTO NRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW THIS WAVE WILL EVOLVE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. THE GFS SHOWS A WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM THAT QUICKLY EVOLVES INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF...THOUGH WITH THE 06.12 RUN IT SHIFTED SAID LOW FROM BEING OVER MN/ONT TO NOW BEING DOWN OVER ARKANSAS. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDES EAST...WE WILL SEE A COOL AND DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE DOWN FROM CANADA WITH IT. THIS WILL KEEP OUR HIGHS RUNNING A GOOD 5-10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER...BUT IF WE SEE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...THEN WE SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING LOWS THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY MORNINGS DOWN IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...WE WILL ALSO BE GETTING INTO THE H7-H6 BAROCLINIC ZONE CURRENTLY OUT OVER THE DAKOTAS...WHICH IS WHAT WILL BE OUR SOURCE FOR VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER WED/THU. THE 12Z MODELS HAVE ALSO CONTINUED TO TREND DRIER THIS PERIOD...AS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR LOOKS TO SERIOUSLY IMPEDE ANY PRECIP TRYING TO REACH THE SFC. STILL HAVE SOME REMNANT 20 POPS LEFT WED NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN WHERE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF FALLING...BUT EVEN HERE...IT TRENDED QUITE A BIT DRIER FROM WHAT ITS 06.00 MODEL RUN HAD. FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE DIFFERENCES STEM FROM THE STRENGTH OF THE PAC JET COMING IN BEHIND SATURDAYS FIRST SURGE. THE GFS KEEPS A MUCH STRONGER JET GOING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH KEEPS ITS ASSOCIATED LEAD WAVE AN OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE ONE. A BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE JET ON THE ECMWF ON SUNDAY ALLOWS THE INITIAL WAVE TO DIG FURTHER...ALLOWING IT TO CLOSE OFF. THIS CLOSING OFF IS NOTHING NEW IN THE ECMWF...HOWEVER THE TIMING/LOCATION OF WHERE IT CLOSES OFF HAS CHANGED CONSIDERABLY. IN THE LAST 6 RUNS IT HAS TAKEN IT FROM CLOSING OFF MONDAY OVER SRN MANITOBA /4.00 & 4.12 RUNS/...THEN MN/WRN ONTARIO /5.00...5.12 & 6.00 RUNS/...TO NOW CLOSING OFF ON TUESDAY DOWN OVER ARKANSAS. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF VARIABILITY...JUST STUCK WITH THE BLENDED FORECAST...WITH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND HIGHS GETTING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. SAYING THERE WILL BE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE COMING DAYS IS AN UNDERSTATEMENT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS WITH CIGS AOA 4K THRU THE PERIOD. A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN ACROSS CENTRAL/EC MN AND PARTS OF WC WI. BUT DUE TO VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...TRACE AMTS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE WSW/W/WNW THRU THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS DURING THE AFTN TODAY...AND AGAIN TUESDAY LATE MORNING. KMSP... VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. CIGS WILL REMAIN AOA 4K. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE WSW/W TODAY...MORE SW TONIGHT AND SHIFTING TO THE WNW BY TUESDAY MORNING. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS. THU...VFR. ISOLD -SHRA EARLY. WINDS N 5 KTS. FRI...VFR. WINDS N 5 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLT LONG TERM...MPG AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
121 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 LITTLE CHG IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS THE MAIN SHRTWV ALONG THE MN/CANADIAN BORDER MOVES OFF TO THE NE OF MPX CWA. HOWEVER...A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING ONCE THIS SHRTWV ROTATES THRU THE GREAT LAKES. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER SHRTWV WAS EVIDENT ACROSS ND EARLY THIS AFTN. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A SHORT PERIOD WHERE BOTH SHRTWV/S COMBINED AND CREATE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL/EC MN AND INTO WC WI BETWEEN 22-04Z THIS AFTN/EVENING. THIS IS NOTED ON THE LATEST 15Z HRRR DERIVED REFLECTIVITY FORECAST. CURRENTLY THE FORECAST HAS ONLY SPRINKLES IN CENTRAL/EC MN WITH CHC POPS IN WC WI. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO PRECIPITATION AMTS WILL BE MINOR. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A POST-MATURE VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE OVER NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN THE HANDLING OF THIS LOW. ITS PRESENCE IN ONTARIO WILL KEEP THE BREEZY CONDITIONS GOING ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO 20 MPH EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST...AND FINALLY BE EAST OF ONTARIO BY THURSDAY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE CONFINED NORTH OF US...SO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY...WHILE FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL BE DEALING WITH CONTINUED CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA DUE TO THIS WAVE MOVING THROUGH. FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE IS NOT GREAT...AND VERY DRY AIR WILL OCCUPY THE REGION AHEAD OF IT...MEANING ANY PRECIPITATION IT DOES PRODUCE WILL BE LIGHT. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED ONTARIO LOW WILL BE GAINING STEAM TO THE NORTHEAST AND NO LONGER BLOCKING THE FLOW. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MAINTAIN CONTROL OF OUR LOCAL WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD...AS REMNANTS FROM HURRICANE SIMON SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OF US AND PORTIONS OF THE FA MAY SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS UNDER THE SURFACE HIGH. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE FOR US DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SPAWN A STRONG SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA. DECENT AGREEMENT IS SEEN BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH THE MAIN BEING TIMING OF ITS MOVEMENT THROUGH OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF MINNESOTA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW IN THE COMING DAYS...THE 00Z EC DID DROP IT SLIGHTLY SOUTH FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN. IF THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS NORTH OF THE FA...EXPECT STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...WITH A TEMPORARY WARM AIR SURGE POSSIBLE...BEFORE PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. BEING SIX DAYS OUT HOWEVER...MUCH WILL NEED TO BE SORTED OUT WITH THE STRENGTH...TIMING...AND TRACK OF THIS LOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS WITH CIGS AOA 4K THRU THE PERIOD. A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN ACROSS CENTRAL/EC MN AND PARTS OF WC WI. BUT DUE TO VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...TRACE AMTS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE WSW/W/WNW THRU THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS DURING THE AFTN TODAY...AND AGAIN TUESDAY LATE MORNING. KMSP... VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. CIGS WILL REMAIN AOA 4K. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE WSW/W TODAY...MORE SW TONIGHT AND SHIFTING TO THE WNW BY TUESDAY MORNING. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS. THU...VFR. ISOLD -SHRA EARLY. WINDS N 5 KTS. FRI...VFR. WINDS N 5 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLT LONG TERM...SPD AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
249 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2014 .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Wednesday...Northwest flow aloft will continue as the upper ridge remains over the west coast. Weak short wave energy will move within the flow aloft tonight and may generate some light showers, mainly in a narrow band from near Cut Bank to east of Great Falls to just north of Lewistown. This lines up well with RUC analysis but HRRR model data has the precipitation a bit further to the west. Slightly cooler temperatures are in store for the area Tuesday with a few isolated afternoon showers. The pressure gradient will continue to favor breezy conditions Tuesday afternoon. Additional short wave energy moves across the area Wednesday with isolated showers again a possibility, mainly near the international boundary and along the Rocky Mountain Front. Temperatures will remain above seasonal averages. Wednesday Night through Monday...Medium range models remain in good agreement from midweek through Saturday but solutions continue to diverge for the Sunday/Monday time frame. Period starts off with northwest flow aloft over the Northern Rocky Mountain region with temperatures that are near seasonal averages. Moisture in the northwest flow will bring isolated rain and snow showers to the western mountains through Friday afternoon. By Friday evening, a strong upper level jet will push into western Canada and the Pacific Northwest. However, beyond Saturday, the strong flow aloft causes model solutions to diverge as short wave strength and timing become more problematic. Based upon the general pattern present in the medium range models am expecting that increased Pacific moisture and upper level dynamics will bring an growing chance for precipitation to the western mountains with isolated to scattered showers moving out over the plains. Have continued to trend PoPs upward for Saturday through Monday with temperatures expected to cool back below seasonal averages. Have also trended toward increased winds along the Rocky Mountain Front during this period as well and am expecting that that one or two high wind events along the east slopes of the Rockies are possible between Friday and Monday. mpj && .AVIATION... UPDATED 1740Z. Breezy westerly winds will continue over the region through the afternoon hours...with generally mid/high level cloudiness prevailing. Expect VFR conditions to prevail over much of the region through the period. There is a small chance for an isolated shower in the Lewistown area after 06z Tuesday...with the showers ending by 15z Tue. Brusda && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 47 68 47 70 / 10 10 10 10 CTB 44 67 43 70 / 20 20 10 10 HLN 48 75 46 72 / 10 10 10 10 BZN 42 73 40 70 / 0 10 10 10 WEY 32 64 31 62 / 0 0 10 0 DLN 44 74 41 70 / 0 0 10 0 HVR 42 64 40 67 / 10 20 10 20 LWT 44 66 43 69 / 20 20 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1259 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. DECIDED TO UPDATE TO ADD THOSE IN. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES OTHER THAN A SMALL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD ARE PCPN CHANCES TONIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. OUR AREA IS STILL IN STRONG NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW...WITH A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A TROUGH TO THE EAST. SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS DID OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TODAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TODAY...BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS SUNDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS OF 67-70 IN WESTERN IOWA AND MAINLY LOWER 70S IN EASTERN NEBRASKA. YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRACK DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL GENERATE MAINLY MID LEVEL LIFT. INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY WEAK THOUGH AND NOT AS DEEP AS IT WAS SUNDAY. KEPT POPS IN THE ISOLATED CATEGORY AND ENDED THESE BY AROUND 09Z. LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S. THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY. TUESDAY IS PROBABLY GOING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH LOWER AND MID 70S IN EASTERN NEBRASKA...UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IN WESTERN IOWA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR WEDNESDAY...BUT MIXING DOES NOT LOOK AS GOOD. SO WE EXPECT HIGHS A A FEW DEGREES COOLER. THOUGHT ABOUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT STARTING OUT THIS PERIOD...THEN SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES BY THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST PCPN THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE DOWN ACROSS MISSOURI AND KANSAS...THE SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA COULD SEE RAIN TOTALS UP TO HALF AN INCH FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS SEEMED TOO WET THOUGH AND WENT CLOSER TO VALUES SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF. DID NOT MENTION ANY PCPN FOR FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND OCNL CIGS ABOVE FL050 SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN DUE TO HEATING. A DISTURBANCE DROPPING SE ACROSS MO VALLEY THIS EVENING SHOULD BRING AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF CIGS TO TAF SITES THIS EVENING...GENERALLY MID LEVEL BASED. A FEW SHOWERS COULD ACCOMPANY THIS DISTURBANCE...BUT NO MENTION WAS MADE WITH 18Z ISSUANCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE/TIMING. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MILLER SHORT TERM...MILLER LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...CHERMOK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1233 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 VERY LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHILE WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE. ONLY CHANGE FOR MID-DAY UPDATE IS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE AREA BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 832 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 A FEW LIGHT ECHOS STARTING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN MONTANA WHILE BAND OF CIRRUS WITH STRONG JET CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA. LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH THEY MAY PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS HAS BEEN ADDRESSED BY ADDING LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER UP WITH CURRENT TREND. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 11Z RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN H300 N-S JET AROUND 135 KTS LYING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ONGOING 12Z RAOB ALREADY CLOSE TO 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK. BAND OF JET STREAM CIRRUS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS PARALLELING THIS JET AND MOVING SOUTHEAST. SURFACE WINDS AT KBIS WITHIN THE PAST HOUR GUSTING TO 20 KTS BRIEFLY. SO EXPECT ANOTHER BREEZY DAY. ADJUSTED CLOUDS. OTHERWISE CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY...VERY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A 140KT JET STREAM MOVING TOWARDS/OVER THE REGION...AND AS WE REMAIN IN BETWEEN A DEEP UPPER LOW SOUTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY AND A BROAD RIDGE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. SUBTLE EMBEDDED WAVES CONTINUE TO EITHER RIDE OVER THE RIDGE OR SPIRAL AROUND THE LOW THEN PROCEED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...RIGHT NOW MAINLY RESULTING IN SCT-BKN AREAS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. A MORE DEFINED MID LEVEL IMPULSE...NOW CROSSING THE ALBERTA ROCKIES...WILL APPROACH AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN EMBEDDED UPPER JET STREAK ACROSS THE WEST...WILL HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...EVENTUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING ACROSS WESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT EAST WITH THE UPPER JET STREAK...BUT ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS MID LEVEL FORCING WANES. SHOWERS WILL BE FAST MOVING SO NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN REGARDS TO ACCUMULATION. SOME ELEVATED CAPE IS INDICATED BY MODELS. WHILE WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...CAPE IS RATHER LIMITED SO WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. FIGURED WE CAN ALWAYS ADD IF NEEDED IF LIGHTNING STRIKES BEGIN TO POP UP UPSTREAM OFF TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...BOUNDARY LAYER AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED HIGH PERCENTAGE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST...WENT A TAD COOLER/SIMILAR HIGHS OVER MY SOUTHWEST THIRD. MODELS PERFORMED FAIRLY WELL YESTERDAY WITH THE WINDS. WE EVENTUALLY REACHED ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND GUSTS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE BUFKIT INDICATED OVER MUCH OF THE ORIGINAL ADVISORY AREA. FOR TODAY...BOTH THE 00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT KEEP THE 40KT + WIND GUSTS ABOVE THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER. SO WHILE IT WILL BE BREEZY...PEAK WINDS WILL BE LOWER THAN WHAT OCCURRED SUNDAY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...MORE SO GUSTING WITHIN THE 30S MPH INSTEAD OF IN THE 40S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA BEGINNING TO FILL AND DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST. WHAT FOLLOWS IS A TRANSITION TO A RATHER FAST H500 FLOW REGIME THAT RESULTS IN A RATHER DRY WEATHER PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES DO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN...ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY. OTHERWISE THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN COOL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATING TO THE 60S SATURDAY. LOW MAINLY IN THE 30S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLD/SCT -SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH NO VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT...CIGS WILL LOWER...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BRINGING MVFR CIGS TO KMOT-KJMS...WHILE REMAINING MAJOR TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JJS SHORT TERM...NH LONG TERM...WAA AVIATION...JJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
616 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE THE PARADE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO HAVE BEEN ABLE TO PRODUCE PEA TO PENNY SIZE HAIL. WILL FOLLOW THE HRRR TREND OF INCREASING POPS AND COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN OHIO...MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL ALSO HAVE LIKELY POPS INITIALLY FAR NORTHWEST. BY MID EVENING DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. WILL END PRECIP WEST IN THE EVENING AND TAPER EAST THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. MID 40S LOOK GOOD FOR LOWS. NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... TUESDAY MODELS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE RETURNING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A DECENT SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL BEGIN WITH MOST AREAS DRY ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE POP FAR SOUTHWEST TO START IN THE MORNING. THROUGH THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY SPREAD CHANCE POPS EAST INTO NORTHEAST OHIO WHILE POPS WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY SOUTHWEST. FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE MOST AREAS TO CAT POPS AS MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE POSITIONED FAVORABLY UNDER THE JET FOR DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BASE OF THE TROF ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH BY EVENING CAT POPS WILL BE JUST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHILE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL REMAIN WEST AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WEDNESDAY MORNING 850MB TEMPS DROP TO +2C AND DROP TO NEAR 0C BY 18Z. WILL NEED TO LEAVE CHANCE POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT IN THE SNOWBELT COUNTIES...FOR RAIN. OTHERWISE WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FOR A DECENT DAY. THURSDAY MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WITH DEEP OVERRUNNING MOISTURE THAT SPREADS EAST QUICKLY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE DIFFERENCES HOWEVER IS THAT WHILE THE GFS BRINGS THE SWATH OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA...THEN NAM HOLDS IT WELL TO THE SOUTH. THE SREF SHOWS MORE OF A THIRD SOLUTION RATHER THAN SUPPORTING THE NAM OR GFS. SO FOR NOW WILL MEET IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NAM AND GFS AND BRING CHANCE POPS TO NORTHERN COUNTIES AND LIKELY POPS SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS SOUTH AND CHANCE NORTH. TEMPS TUESDAY NEAR NORMAL AND THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BALANCE OF THE SHORT TERM. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE ETERNAL EASTERN UNITED STATES UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES RIDGE. SOME RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING TROUGH IN THE WEST. EVENTUALLY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SHIFT EAST OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS REFLECTS TO THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER OKLAHOMA AND MOVE EAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE LOW ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL SET UP A FLOW OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN A BIT FOR FRIDAY BUT BEGIN TO TRANSITION BACK UP AGAIN IN THE SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. A BIG GAP HAS FORMED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ACTIVITY BUT IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL THEN MOVE QUICKLY EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH FAIR WEATHER RETURNING THROUGH THE MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS ARRIVE AROUND 17Z IN THE WEST TOMORROW. .OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NON-VFR LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .MARINE... A SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE LAKE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT TIGHT SUPPORTING WIND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING FROM THE SOUTH AND THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE PERIODIC DROPS IN THE WIND BUT THE OVERALL TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IS THE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH THAT WE WILL NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES UNTIL THEN WINDS DO DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AS THEY BECOME NORTHERLY AND DIMINISH EVEN FURTHER ON SATURDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ146>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...LOMBARDY AVIATION...LOMBARDY MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
206 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MOISTURE INCREASED MONDAY. DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST FLOW CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN LATE THURSDAY IN FAST ZONAL FLOW. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... MUCH MORE ACTIVE AUTUMN PATTERN...AS SPOKES OF ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAXIMUMS ROTATE AROUND THE BROAD 500 MB TROF OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WAS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THE CLUSTERS TO COME LATE. AS MENTIONED THIS MORNING...HARD TO TIME THE INDIVIDUAL SHOWER/STORM CLUSTERS IN THIS FAST FLOW. MAIN 500 MB VORT MAXIMUM ON 16Z RAP NOT PASSING INTO OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES UNTIL AFTER 06Z TUESDAY. WILL HOLD LIKELY POPS THERE MOST OF THE NIGHT. WITHOUT AN ORGANIZED SURFACE FEATURE...LIKE A FRONT...HARD TO TIME REMOVE OF POP...BUT DROPPED BELOW 15 PCT IN THE MID OHIO VALLEY AFTER 06Z...IN WAKE OF THAT 500 MB AXIS. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LOWER IN THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SO WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD LOWER CLOUDS THAN SURFACE BASED FOG FOR THE PREDAWN HOURS. FAVORED THE FASTER 12Z GFS OVER THE SLOWER NAM FOR NEXT DISTURBANCE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SO INCREASED POPS FASTER FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL FINE TUNE MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT HOUR...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY BIG CHANGES. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS PERIOD. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN FAST W-NW FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROF/COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST EARLY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY LATE WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED TREND FROM EARLIER GRIDS AS WET WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY SEASONABLE CONDITIONS BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING ON THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY... BECOMING ORIENTED WEST TO EAST...FROM KENTUCKY TO VIRGINIA...UNDER MOIST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED PERIOD. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU PICK...BY SATURDAY...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND THE TIMING THESE FEATURES WILL DIFFER. POPULATING WITH WPC TEMPS AND POPS GUIDANCE WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEW POINT. THIS LEADS TO A CEILING DILEMMA FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. TRENDING MORE TOWARD MORE CLOUDS AT 1 TO 2 THSD FT OVERNIGHT AND VSBY 2 TO 4 MILES VERSUS THICKER SURFACE BASED FOG. ALL IN ALL THOUGH...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN CEILING HEIGHTS 03Z THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. IN THE MEANWHILE...MORE DISTURBANCE AROUND THE BROAD 500 MB TROF BASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HAVE MOSTLY CEILINGS 2 TO 3 THSD AND VSBY 3 TO 5 MILES IN CONVECTION. FAVORED THE FASTER 12Z GFS OVER THE NAM WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ON TUESDAY. SO HAVE SHOWERS/STORMS INCREASING SOONER...DURING THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE AND TIMING OF LOWER CEILINGS VERSUS DENSER FOG OVERNIGHT COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M H M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS OR FOG OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. IFR IN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/KMC/KTB NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...KMC AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
155 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MOISTURE INCREASED MONDAY. DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST FLOW CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN LATE THURSDAY IN FAST ZONAL FLOW. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... MUCH MORE ACTIVE AUTUMN PATTERN...AS SPOKES OF ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAXIMUMS ROTATE AROUND THE BROAD 500 MB TROF OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WAS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THE CLUSTERS TO COME LATE. AS MENTIONED THIS MORNING...HARD TO TIME THE INDIVIDUAL SHOWER/STORM CLUSTERS IN THIS FAST FLOW. MAIN 500 MB VORT MAXIMUM ON 16Z RAP NOT PASSING INTO OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES UNTIL AFTER 06Z TUESDAY. WILL HOLD LIKELY POPS THERE MOST OF THE NIGHT. WITHOUT AN ORGANIZED SURFACE FEATURE...LIKE A FRONT...HARD TO TIME REMOVE OF POP...BUT DROPPED BELOW 15 PCT IN THE MID OHIO VALLEY AFTER 06Z...IN WAKE OF THAT 500 MB AXIS. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LOWER IN THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SO WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD LOWER CLOUDS THAN SURFACE BASED FOG FOR THE PREDAWN HOURS. FAVORED THE FASTER 12Z GFS OVER THE SLOWER NAM FOR NEXT DISTURBANCE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SO INCREASED POPS FASTER FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL FINE TUNE MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT HOUR...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY BIG CHANGES. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS PERIOD...TRANSITIONING FROM A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW AFTER MID WEEK. THIS BECOMES A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH NO GREAT TEMPERATURE CHANGES AS FRONTAL SYSTEMS MEANDER BACK AND FORTH. WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO OPEN WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THERE WILL BE GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS. ONE SUCH FRONTAL SYSTEM COMES ACROSS TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. SOME INSTABILITY IS INDICATED BY GUIDANCE SO WILL PUT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. MODELS ARE QUICKER EXITING THIS FRONT...SO HAVE TAPERED OFF POPS QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT DOWN THIS WAY...AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES FLATTER. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM COMES IN THURSDAY...AND THIS IS ALSO HANDLED FAIRLY WELL BY THE MODELS. BY THIS TIME...WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE ZONAL...THE FRONT WILL BECOME ORIENTED MORE EAST TO WEST AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA...AND GIVE US A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. MODELS INDICATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF COMING IN WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT AT THIS TIME FRAME...WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY WATER ISSUES. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... USED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THIS WOULD KEEP A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE REGION AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE AREA. THIS FRONT WOULD RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. A WAVE WOULD THEN MOVE ALONG THE FRONT PUSHING IT BACK SOUTHWARD A BIT ON FRIDAY...ONLY TO RETURN NORTHWARD AGAIN WITH ANOTHER WAVE ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEW POINT. THIS LEADS TO A CEILING DILEMMA FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. TRENDING MORE TOWARD MORE CLOUDS AT 1 TO 2 THSD FT OVERNIGHT AND VSBY 2 TO 4 MILES VERSUS THICKER SURFACE BASED FOG. ALL IN ALL THOUGH...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN CEILING HEIGHTS 03Z THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. IN THE MEANWHILE...MORE DISTURBANCE AROUND THE BROAD 500 MB TROF BASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HAVE MOSTLY CEILINGS 2 TO 3 THSD AND VSBY 3 TO 5 MILES IN CONVECTION. FAVORED THE FASTER 12Z GFS OVER THE NAM WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ON TUESDAY. SO HAVE SHOWERS/STORMS INCREASING SOONER...DURING THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE AND TIMING OF LOWER CEILINGS VERSUS DENSER FOG OVERNIGHT COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M H M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS OR FOG OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. IFR IN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/KMC/KTB NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
325 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 .SYNOPSIS... FRESH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S WITH A SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S CAPES WERE RISING INTO THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. USING THE HRRR OUTPUT SEE MORE SCATTERED RAINFALL WITH PERHAPS A STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL. GFS/NAM HAVE SUGGESTED MORE ROBUST STORMS TO DEVELOP. THERE IS LITTLE OR NO SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND THE OCTOBER DIABATIC CONTRIBUTION IS NOT STRONG. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. DURING THE OVERNIGHT ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. SCATTERED RAINFALL IS THEN POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM SECTOR MOVES INTO OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY WE CATCH A BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER. .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THOUGHT MONDAY)... ON THURSDAY THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE RAINFALL BECOMES ENHANCED PROXIMAL TO A SLOW MOVING WEST TO EAST COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE THE REGION FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT LEADING TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION...HOWEVER WHEN THE FRONT DOES MOVE IN TEMPERATURES AND CONSISTENT RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY. FOR NOW THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE WAITING FOR FUTURES MODEL RUNS BEFORE PLACING MORE CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTCOME. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THIS FRONT THEN BEGINS TO MOVE BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BELLES && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF SET REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND KTUP BETWEEN 20-23Z. HAVE PUSHED TEMPO GROUP BACK AS A RESULT. ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EAST BY 00-01Z. ADDITIONAL SHRA ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP AFTER 6Z ACROSS CWA. HAVE PUT VCSH WORDING AT ALL TAF SITES. CIGS MAY LOWER TO VFR AROUND 12Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD. SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND 12 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH DURING EVENING HOURS BUT WILL BEGIN TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN AROUND 12Z. KRM && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1211 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 .UPDATE... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/ FOCUS IS ON THE REDEVELOPMENT FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION IS WHERE AND WHAT INTENSITY. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE NAM THE MOST BULLISH FOR REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE/NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON MOVING SOUTH THROUGH EVENING. THE GFS SUPPORTS REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA AND THE HRRR IS NOT SHOWING AS MUCH ACTIVITY WITH LATEST RUN. THE ISSUE IS FORCING. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND JET MAX ROTATING THROUGH THE WEST SIDE OF DEEP TROUGH IS THE FOCUS. NOT A LOT OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH INSTABILITY DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW MUCH WE CAN WARM UNDER AN EARLY OCTOBER SUN. INSTABILITY LOOKS DECENT ON THE NAM ALTHOUGH THAT IS DEPENDENT ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR 80....THEREFORE INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION IS CONDITIONAL ON OUR SURFACE HEATING. FOR NOW WILL KEEP LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS MAIN THREAT IN THE HWO. HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE A LITTLE SECTION OF THE SLIGHT RISK ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE LEAVING A BULK THE EXISTING AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BELLES && .DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/ RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. ALSO A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IN MISSOURI BOOT HEEL MOVING EAST. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING AND THEN MORE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY INCREASES ALONG WITH AVAILABLE ENERGY THIS AFTERNOON AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...IN CANADA MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE FIRST IS BRINGING THE CURRENT SHOWERS AND THEN THE SECOND WILL ALLOW FOR THE ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY DUE TO THESE SHORTWAVES AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. AFTER TODAY...THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM DOESN/T MOVE MUCH...IT STICKS AROUND THE MID-SOUTH FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER CANADA BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...THIS ALLOWS MORE MOISTURE TO BE PUSHED INTO AREA FROM THE WHAT WILL BE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL STORM SIMON. THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA FINAL PUSHES TO THE EAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WHICH MAY BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING PART OF THE WEEK AND THEN WILL COOL OFF TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ARE UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S FOR LOWS. TLSJR && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF SET REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND KTUP BETWEEN 20-23Z. HAVE PUSHED TEMPO GROUP BACK AS A RESULT. ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EAST BY 00-01Z. ADDITIONAL SHRA ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP AFTER 6Z ACROSS CWA. HAVE PUT VCSH WORDING AT ALL TAF SITES. CIGS MAY LOWER TO VFR AROUND 12Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD. SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND 12 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH DURING EVENING HOURS BUT WILL BEGIN TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN AROUND 12Z. KRM && && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1113 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 .UPDATE... FOCUS IS ON THE REDEVELOPMENT FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION IS WHERE AND WHAT INTENSITY. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE NAM THE MOST BULLISH FOR REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE/NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON MOVING SOUTH THROUGH EVENING. THE GFS SUPPORTS REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA AND THE HRRR IS NOT SHOWING AS MUCH ACTIVITY WITH LATEST RUN. THE ISSUE IS FORCING. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND JET MAX ROTATING THROUGH THE WEST SIDE OF DEEP TROUGH IS THE FOCUS. NOT A LOT OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH INSTABILITY DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW MUCH WE CAN WARM UNDER AN EARLY OCTOBER SUN. INSTABILITY LOOKS DECENT ON THE NAM ALTHOUGH THAT IS DEPENDENT ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR 80....THEREFORE INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION IS CONDITIONAL ON OUR SURFACE HEATING. FOR NOW WILL KEEP LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS MAIN THREAT IN THE HWO. HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE A LITTLE SECTION OF THE SLIGHT RISK ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE LEAVING A BULK THE EXISTING AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BELLES && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/ DISCUSSION... UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/ DISCUSSION... RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. ALSO A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IN MISSOURI BOOT HEEL MOVING EAST. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING AND THEN MORE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY INCREASES ALONG WITH AVAILABLE ENERGY THIS AFTERNOON AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...IN CANADA MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE FIRST IS BRINGING THE CURRENT SHOWERS AND THEN THE SECOND WILL ALLOW FOR THE ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY DUE TO THESE SHORTWAVES AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. AFTER TODAY...THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM DOESN/T MOVE MUCH...IT STICKS AROUND THE MID-SOUTH FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER CANADA BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...THIS ALLOWS MORE MOISTURE TO BE PUSHED INTO AREA FROM THE WHAT WILL BE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL STORM SIMON. THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA FINAL PUSHES TO THE EAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WHICH MAY BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING PART OF THE WEEK AND THEN WILL COOL OFF TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ARE UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S FOR LOWS. TLSJR && .AVIATION... 12Z TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT. ARS && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
338 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 .UPDATE... THE CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING/S THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS HAVE BROKEN UP. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING/S STORMS IS QUITE APPARENT ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS IN AN ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE WINDS...EXTENDING FROM WEST OF COMANCHE TO WEST OF LAMPASAS SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES NEAR AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE AROUND 90 DEGREES. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY IN THE 80S...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE RECOVERY HAS BEEN SLOWER SO TEMPERATURES ARE MID 70S. THE BIGGEST QUESTION FOR THE REST OF TODAY/S FORECAST IS WHETHER ANY STORMS WILL DEVELOP BEFORE SUNSET. THE CUMULUS FIELD ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE WHERE THE CIN IS LOWEST. THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE RELATIVELY LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT WILL KEEP 10-20 PERCENT POPS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED INTO THE EVENING HOURS SOUTHEAST OF A BOWIE TO COMANCHE LINE. ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT AS NOTED THE PROBABILITY IS NOT VERY HIGH. AFTER THIS EVENING...EXPECT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON MOVES NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE LOW...A COLD FRONT WILL SINK DOWN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHERN ZONES. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN AREA WIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...AND THEN STARTS TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY UNTIL A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST. 58 && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/ 1434 CDT...LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS AND LACK OF CU ON VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOW THAT WACO SHOULD REMAIN STORM FREE. HAVE AMENDED TAF TO REMOVE VCTS. 84 PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION... METROPLEX HAS HAD TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER SINCE THIS MORNING/S MCS. HI RES MODELS KEEP THE METROPLEX STORM-FREE...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAP THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SO ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY...ANY EXTRA HEATING OR WEAKER CAP THAN FORECAST WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO FORM. THERE IS GOOD SHEAR AND STRONG INSTABILITY...SO ANY STORM THAT DOES FORM MAY BECOME SEVERE AND POSE A HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS WELL. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW LATE AFTERNOON AS THE TIME WHEN CAP IS WEAKEST. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE METROPLEX TAFS STORM-FREE BUT WILL KEEP WATCHING FOR ANY CHANGE THAT WOULD MAKE STORM OCCURRENCE MORE POSSIBLE. AT WACO...BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THROUGH BUT IT DID NOT RAIN AT THE AIRPORT SO HEATING WILL ALSO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. NAM IS FORECASTING POSSIBLE STORMS IN THE WACO AREA SO WILL KEEP VCTS 21Z-00Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW LOW STRATUS FOR MORNING MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN THE TAF AS WELL. 84 && .PREV UPDATE... .UPDATE... THE MCS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING HAS MOVED TO SOUTHEAST OF AN ATHENS TO WACO LINE AS OF 1130 AM. THE BIG QUESTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS HOW MUCH WILL THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVER THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED ALONG AND NORTH OF A CANTON TO GRANBURY LINE. WITH FORECAST AFTERNOON CAPES ARE IN THE 2500 J/KG ARE GREATER RANGE AND DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY BOUNDARY THAT IS READILY APPARENT TO SERVE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM EXTENDS EAST OF A STEPHENVILLE TO CAMERON LINE. IF THESE STORMS DEVELOP...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS THE EVER-PRESENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING THREAT. 58 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY OCCURRING EAST OF INTERSTATE 35/35E. AT 3 AM...A SMALL LINEAR COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS ABOUT TO CROSS THE RED RIVER WHILE OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN AND WEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX. AT THIS TIME...THE STORMS NEAR THE RED RIVER WERE THE STRONGEST BUT BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE STORMS CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST. HAIL AROUND 1 INCH AND/OR GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THROUGH MIDDAY...HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A CONDITIONAL SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PART OF THE REGION. AROUND MIDDAY...SEVERAL OF THE MODELS MOVE A H700 THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WAA WILL OCCUR UNDER VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHERE H500 TEMPS ARE AROUND -12 DEGREES C. THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S THIS AFTERNOON RESULTS IN MODERATE TO HIGH CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2500-3500 J/KG. THE WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WAA NEAR H700 WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. IN ADDITION...BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH VALUES AROUND 40-45 KTS AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP BETWEEN THE WARMING TEMPS AT H700 AND THE COLD TEMPS AT H500. THE QUESTION IS...WILL WE GET STORMS? A SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE IS NOT NOTED IN THE MODELS TO PROVIDE LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. BUT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING LIFT OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION WHICH MAY BE TIED TO THE WAA AROUND THE H700 LAYER. SEVERAL OF THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE PRODUCING QPF OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF THE THERMAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT DEVELOPING ANY STORMS IN THE REGION. ANOTHER INTERESTING FEATURE TO NOTE IS THAT THE RAP...ECMWF...CANADIAN ALL DEVELOP A DRYLINE OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS IS REALIZED...IT COULD BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION. IN SUMMARY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP SOME WHERE IN THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON BUT IF STORMS DO DEVELOP THEY HAVE A CHANCE TO BECOME SEVERE WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY 20-30 POPS EAST OF A LINE FROM SHERMAN TO FORT WORTH TO COMANCHE. THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE MESOSCALE FEATURES AND ENVIRONMENT AND ALSO SHORT-TERM AND HI-RES MODELS FOR POSSIBLY EARLY HINTS THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA IN ANOTHER AREA OF WAA. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED AREAS JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LEAVE A 20 POP ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. OUR PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS THE REMNANTS OF SIMON MERGE WITH A WEAK TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A FRONT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION AND RETREAT NORTH ON SUNDAY...BUT IT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WILL CARRY LOW RAIN CHANCES INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS BROAD TROUGHING SETS UP OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY AND SOUTH WINDS KEEP ADEQUATE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR PRECIPITATION. 82/JLD && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 71 96 73 93 73 / 10 5 5 5 10 WACO, TX 70 93 70 92 70 / 20 5 5 10 10 PARIS, TX 67 91 69 90 68 / 20 10 5 10 10 DENTON, TX 67 97 70 92 71 / 10 5 5 5 5 MCKINNEY, TX 67 95 70 92 70 / 10 5 5 5 10 DALLAS, TX 71 95 74 93 73 / 10 5 5 5 10 TERRELL, TX 70 94 72 93 72 / 20 5 5 5 10 CORSICANA, TX 71 93 72 92 72 / 20 5 5 10 10 TEMPLE, TX 69 93 69 91 70 / 20 5 5 10 10 MINERAL WELLS, TX 66 97 68 92 67 / 10 5 5 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 84/58
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
236 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 .AVIATION... 1434 CDT...LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS AND LACK OF CU ON VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOW THAT WACO SHOULD REMAIN STORM FREE. HAVE AMENDED TAF TO REMOVE VCTS. 84 PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION... METROPLEX HAS HAD TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER SINCE THIS MORNING/S MCS. HI RES MODELS KEEP THE METROPLEX STORM-FREE...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAP THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SO ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY...ANY EXTRA HEATING OR WEAKER CAP THAN FORECAST WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO FORM. THERE IS GOOD SHEAR AND STRONG INSTABILITY...SO ANY STORM THAT DOES FORM MAY BECOME SEVERE AND POSE A HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS WELL. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW LATE AFTERNOON AS THE TIME WHEN CAP IS WEAKEST. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE METROPLEX TAFS STORM-FREE BUT WILL KEEP WATCHING FOR ANY CHANGE THAT WOULD MAKE STORM OCCURRENCE MORE POSSIBLE. AT WACO...BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THROUGH BUT IT DID NOT RAIN AT THE AIRPORT SO HEATING WILL ALSO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. NAM IS FORECASTING POSSIBLE STORMS IN THE WACO AREA SO WILL KEEP VCTS 21Z-00Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW LOW STRATUS FOR MORNING MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN THE TAF AS WELL. 84 && .UPDATE... THE MCS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING HAS MOVED TO SOUTHEAST OF AN ATHENS TO WACO LINE AS OF 1130 AM. THE BIG QUESTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS HOW MUCH WILL THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVER THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED ALONG AND NORTH OF A CANTON TO GRANBURY LINE. WITH FORECAST AFTERNOON CAPES ARE IN THE 2500 J/KG ARE GREATER RANGE AND DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY BOUNDARY THAT IS READILY APPARENT TO SERVE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM EXTENDS EAST OF A STEPHENVILLE TO CAMERON LINE. IF THESE STORMS DEVELOP...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS THE EVER-PRESENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING THREAT. 58 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY OCCURRING EAST OF INTERSTATE 35/35E. AT 3 AM...A SMALL LINEAR COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS ABOUT TO CROSS THE RED RIVER WHILE OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN AND WEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX. AT THIS TIME...THE STORMS NEAR THE RED RIVER WERE THE STRONGEST BUT BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE STORMS CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST. HAIL AROUND 1 INCH AND/OR GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THROUGH MIDDAY...HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A CONDITIONAL SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PART OF THE REGION. AROUND MIDDAY...SEVERAL OF THE MODELS MOVE A H700 THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WAA WILL OCCUR UNDER VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHERE H500 TEMPS ARE AROUND -12 DEGREES C. THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S THIS AFTERNOON RESULTS IN MODERATE TO HIGH CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2500-3500 J/KG. THE WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WAA NEAR H700 WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. IN ADDITION...BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH VALUES AROUND 40-45 KTS AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP BETWEEN THE WARMING TEMPS AT H700 AND THE COLD TEMPS AT H500. THE QUESTION IS...WILL WE GET STORMS? A SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE IS NOT NOTED IN THE MODELS TO PROVIDE LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. BUT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING LIFT OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION WHICH MAY BE TIED TO THE WAA AROUND THE H700 LAYER. SEVERAL OF THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE PRODUCING QPF OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF THE THERMAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT DEVELOPING ANY STORMS IN THE REGION. ANOTHER INTERESTING FEATURE TO NOTE IS THAT THE RAP...ECMWF...CANADIAN ALL DEVELOP A DRYLINE OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS IS REALIZED...IT COULD BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION. IN SUMMARY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP SOME WHERE IN THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON BUT IF STORMS DO DEVELOP THEY HAVE A CHANCE TO BECOME SEVERE WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY 20-30 POPS EAST OF A LINE FROM SHERMAN TO FORT WORTH TO COMANCHE. THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE MESOSCALE FEATURES AND ENVIRONMENT AND ALSO SHORT-TERM AND HI-RES MODELS FOR POSSIBLY EARLY HINTS THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA IN ANOTHER AREA OF WAA. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED AREAS JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LEAVE A 20 POP ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. OUR PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS THE REMNANTS OF SIMON MERGE WITH A WEAK TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A FRONT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION AND RETREAT NORTH ON SUNDAY...BUT IT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WILL CARRY LOW RAIN CHANCES INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS BROAD TROUGHING SETS UP OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY AND SOUTH WINDS KEEP ADEQUATE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR PRECIPITATION. 82/JLD && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 72 95 73 92 71 / 10 10 5 10 10 WACO, TX 70 93 70 91 70 / 10 10 5 10 10 PARIS, TX 68 92 69 88 68 / 20 10 5 10 10 DENTON, TX 69 94 70 92 69 / 10 5 5 10 10 MCKINNEY, TX 69 94 69 91 69 / 20 10 5 10 10 DALLAS, TX 73 95 73 92 72 / 10 10 5 10 10 TERRELL, TX 72 93 72 91 72 / 20 10 5 10 10 CORSICANA, TX 70 93 71 91 71 / 20 10 5 10 10 TEMPLE, TX 69 93 69 91 69 / 10 10 5 10 10 MINERAL WELLS, TX 67 96 69 93 68 / 10 5 5 10 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ /
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1231 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 .AVIATION... A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND OVER THE HOUSTON CWA. LATEST AREA RADAR IMAGES SHOW AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND APPROACHING THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. ACCORDING TO THE ETA TOOL...SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL ARRIVE TO THE AUSTIN AREA AROUND 1830Z FOR A QUICK WIND SHIFT. SEA-BREEZE SHOWERS/STORMS MAY INTERACT WITH THIS OUTFLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR A NEW LINE OF STORMS TO FORM MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS (NOT EXPECTING FOR THIS NEW LINE OF STORMS TO HAVE AN IMPACT TO THE I-35 SITES). OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS ALONG THE I-35 TERMINALS AROUND 09Z TO 17Z TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD ON TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/ UPDATE...MCS DROPPING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING. CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING AND LIGHTNING DECREASING INDICATING A WEAKENING TREND. HI RES HRRR AND 4KM CSU WRF WERE CLOSEST IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MCS. BOTH ARE INDICATING ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEAST CWA EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL INTERACTION FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE WEAKENING MCS. VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS FOR TODAY. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/ AVIATION... LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z-16Z THEN BECOMING VFR. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY NEAR 10 KNOTS. TONIGHT AGAIN EXPECT TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT. SIMULATED WRF IS INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS 07Z-09Z THEN FURTHER EAST 10Z-12Z. THINK THE I-35 SITES WILL SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP 07Z-08Z THEN SPREAD INTO KDRT AROUND 11Z. COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY EAST OF I-35. FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE AND MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF I-35. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE HEAT DRIVEN AND WOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... A 20 TO 30 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET HAS ALLOWED FOR A HIGHER COVERAGE OF OVERNIGHT STRATUS TONIGHT. GIVEN THE STRATUS...SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE RUNNING ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA. THE UPPER LOW EXTENDS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH...ALLOWING NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BUT WESTERLIES ARE PREVAILING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW HAS SPARKED OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY IS PUSHING SOUTH...BUT WILL STEER MORE SOUTHEAST AS THE STORMS ENCOUNTER THE WESTERLIES. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A DIRECT IMPACT FROM THIS ACTIVITY...BUT THIS DOES SHOW US THAT THE ATMOSPHERE HAS RECOVERED FROM THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT AND THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST LIFT WILL STAY WELL EAST OF THE AREA TODAY BUT HIGH-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING ISOLATED ACTIVITY...MAINLY EAST OF I-35. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH PEAK HEATING AND SHOULD WEAKEN NEAR SUNSET. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. TOMORROW...NOW TROPICAL STORM SIMON WILL BE MOVING CLOSER TO BAJA CALIFORNIA AND AS IT DOES...THE SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. 850 TEMPS WILL RESPOND AND WARM INTO THE 18-21C RANGE. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S OR ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE...NO RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... THE MAIN DISCUSSION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN WHAT WILL ULTIMATELY HAPPEN WITH THE REMNANTS OF SIMON. OUR THINKING HAS SEEMED TO COME TO FRUITION WITH THE GFS BACKING OFF ON THE QUICKER MOVEMENT AND COLD FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID-WEEK. THE 00Z GFS HAS COME INTO MORE OF AN AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF/CANADIAN. THROUGH FRIDAY...THE REMNANT UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND NEAR COLORADO. THIS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA TO SHIFT EAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES TO ALLOW FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY BUT SHOULD STALL NORTH OF OUR CWA. WILL CARRY POPS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED ACTIVITY WITH A BOUNDARY NEARING THE AREA. BY SATURDAY THE UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH SIMON WILL FINALLY FLATTEN WITH ZONAL FLOW RETURNING ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SURGE NORTHWARD WITH POPS ONLY REMAINING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE EAST ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS THEN DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY/MONDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW MOVING WELL SOUTH OF THE GFS PATH AND THEREFORE THE ECMWF IS FORECASTING OUR NEXT FRONT JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE THE GFS PREVAILS SOUTHERLY FLOW. HAMPSHIRE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 72 94 73 92 73 / - 0 0 10 10 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 69 94 70 92 70 / - 0 0 10 10 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 71 93 71 92 72 / - 0 0 10 10 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 70 92 71 88 71 / 0 0 0 10 10 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 68 95 72 91 73 / - 0 - 10 - GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 71 92 72 90 72 / - 0 0 10 10 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 93 71 91 71 / - 0 - 10 10 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 71 93 71 92 71 / - 0 0 10 10 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 91 73 90 73 / 10 0 - 20 10 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 92 73 90 74 / - 0 0 10 10 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 94 73 92 74 / - 0 0 10 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1124 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 .UPDATE...MCS DROPPING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING. CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING AND LIGHTNING DECREASING INDICATING A WEAKENING TREND. HI RES HRRR AND 4KM CSU WRF WERE CLOSEST IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MCS. BOTH ARE INDICATING ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEAST CWA EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL INTERACTION FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE WEAKENING MCS. VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS FOR TODAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/ AVIATION... LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z-16Z THEN BECOMING VFR. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY NEAR 10 KNOTS. TONIGHT AGAIN EXPECT TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT. SIMULATED WRF IS INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS 07Z-09Z THEN FURTHER EAST 10Z-12Z. THINK THE I-35 SITES WILL SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP 07Z-08Z THEN SPREAD INTO KDRT AROUND 11Z. COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY EAST OF I-35. FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE AND MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF I-35. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE HEAT DRIVEN AND WOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... A 20 TO 30 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET HAS ALLOWED FOR A HIGHER COVERAGE OF OVERNIGHT STRATUS TONIGHT. GIVEN THE STRATUS...SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE RUNNING ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA. THE UPPER LOW EXTENDS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH...ALLOWING NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BUT WESTERLIES ARE PREVAILING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW HAS SPARKED OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY IS PUSHING SOUTH...BUT WILL STEER MORE SOUTHEAST AS THE STORMS ENCOUNTER THE WESTERLIES. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A DIRECT IMPACT FROM THIS ACTIVITY...BUT THIS DOES SHOW US THAT THE ATMOSPHERE HAS RECOVERED FROM THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT AND THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST LIFT WILL STAY WELL EAST OF THE AREA TODAY BUT HIGH-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING ISOLATED ACTIVITY...MAINLY EAST OF I-35. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH PEAK HEATING AND SHOULD WEAKEN NEAR SUNSET. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. TOMORROW...NOW TROPICAL STORM SIMON WILL BE MOVING CLOSER TO BAJA CALIFORNIA AND AS IT DOES...THE SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. 850 TEMPS WILL RESPOND AND WARM INTO THE 18-21C RANGE. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S OR ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE...NO RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... THE MAIN DISCUSSION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN WHAT WILL ULTIMATELY HAPPEN WITH THE REMNANTS OF SIMON. OUR THINKING HAS SEEMED TO COME TO FRUITION WITH THE GFS BACKING OFF ON THE QUICKER MOVEMENT AND COLD FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID-WEEK. THE 00Z GFS HAS COME INTO MORE OF AN AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF/CANADIAN. THROUGH FRIDAY...THE REMNANT UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND NEAR COLORADO. THIS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA TO SHIFT EAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES TO ALLOW FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY BUT SHOULD STALL NORTH OF OUR CWA. WILL CARRY POPS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED ACTIVITY WITH A BOUNDARY NEARING THE AREA. BY SATURDAY THE UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH SIMON WILL FINALLY FLATTEN WITH ZONAL FLOW RETURNING ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SURGE NORTHWARD WITH POPS ONLY REMAINING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE EAST ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS THEN DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY/MONDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW MOVING WELL SOUTH OF THE GFS PATH AND THEREFORE THE ECMWF IS FORECASTING OUR NEXT FRONT JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE THE GFS PREVAILS SOUTHERLY FLOW. HAMPSHIRE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 90 72 94 73 92 / 20 - 0 0 10 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 90 69 94 70 92 / 20 - 0 0 10 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 90 71 93 71 92 / 10 - 0 0 10 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 88 70 92 71 88 / 10 0 0 0 10 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 90 68 95 72 91 / - - 0 - 10 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 88 71 92 72 90 / 20 - 0 0 10 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 89 71 93 71 91 / 10 - 0 - 10 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 90 71 93 71 92 / 20 - 0 0 10 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 88 73 91 73 90 / 40 10 0 - 20 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 90 74 92 73 90 / 10 - 0 0 10 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 90 73 94 73 92 / 10 - 0 0 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
226 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 .SHORT TERM... .TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 00Z WITH SHORT WAVE TONIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A VERY LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLES BUT THE STRONGER 700 MB OMEGA STAYS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...REFLECTED IN THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL QPF FIELD...SO NOTHING MEASURABLE EXPECTED. CLOUDS AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL HOLD LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S. DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A MID DECK IN THE SOUTHWEST... BUT SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S IN THE SOUTH HALF...WITH AROUND 60 READINGS INT EH NORTH HALF OF THE CWA GIVEN MIXING UP TO FORECAST 925 MB TEMPERATURES. .TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE STRONG JET MAX WHICH WAS UPSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WEAK MAINLY DOWNWARD MOTION AT 700 MB WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER BELOW A DEVELOPING ISOTHERMAL LAYER AROUND 5 THSD FT TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE RISING TO 7 THSD FT WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH A RESULTING INVERSION. MAIN CONCERN IS WITH CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS POTENTIAL WITH THE NARROW MOIST LAYER. NAM MOS SHOWING CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS WEDNESDAY. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A POTENTIAL OF A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE WEST/NORTHWEST AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS JAMES BAY CANADA. SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET MAX LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE. HOWEVER 700 MB UPWARD MOTION IS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE GFS AND NAM ARE DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF STILL BRINGS SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. PREFER THE DRIER MORE SOUTH MODELS. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH. .LONG TERM... .THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. THE MODELS ARE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER AND THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS IN A WEAKER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST U.S. FRIDAY THAT REACHES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS/DGEX WITH KEEPING THE HIGH ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BE A GOOD SETUP FOR LATE NIGHT FROST BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS A LITTLE MORE 850 MB RH WHICH COULD KEEP SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS INTO THE NORTHEAST AREAS TOWARD FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN. .SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THE MODELS BEGIN TO FORM AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THE 00Z ECMWF LIFTS THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO THE TROUGH...WITH THE GFS TAKING THIS EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH. THE 00Z ECMWF IS STRONGER. THE SURFACE PATTERNS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF HAVING A DOUBLE STRUCTURE TO THE LOW AND IS FASTER WITH THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY. BY MONDAY EVENING THE ECMWF HAS AN OCCLUDED LOW IN THE LAKE SUPERIOR VICINITY WITH THE GFS AT A SIMILAR LOCATION...BUT WITH THE LOW STILL IN THE CYCLOGENISIS PROCESS. THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOW TRENDING SLOWER WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERN LOW. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... BACK EDGE OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 FT NEARING KMSN AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AS IT CLEARS TO THE EAST BY 00Z. SURFACE WINDS...WHICH HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL ALSO DIMINISH. THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS SET UP CONDITIONS FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING IN THE WEST AND SPREADING EAST AROUND 06Z...AND LINGERING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS RAP AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS BETWEEN 600 FT AND 2K FT OF THE SURFACE INCREASE TO 34-36 KTS BETWEEN 05Z AND 14Z AS THE WAVE MOVES IN SO WILL ADD LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO FORECAST...STARTING AND ENDING EARLIER AT KMSN VERSUS THE EASTERN SITES. INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER 00Z WITH SHORT WAVE TONIGHT BRINGS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE BUT MOST OF THE BETTER FORCING STAYS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF TAF LOCATIONS...SO WILL LEAVE OUT. && .MARINE... WINDS GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS... THOUGH A FEW GUSTS MAY REACH CRITERIA...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR A HEADLINE. THE OFFSHORE FETCH WILL KEEP THE WAVES AT OR BELOW 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHER WAVES TOWARD OPEN WATER. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HENTZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1153 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014 .UPDATE... THICK CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH. DIURNAL CUMULUS HAVE POPPED UP BEHIND THE WAVE BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LOW-LEVEL RH FORECASTS SHOW THIS SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN SCATTERED BY MID-AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OFFSET SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT BUT WILL BUMP UP HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... SOLID VFR CLOUD DECK HAS CLEARED EASTERN TAF SITES WITH SURFACE TROUGH. SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 FT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER 00Z WITH SHORT WAVE TONIGHT BRINGS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE BUT MOST OF THE BETTER FORCING STAYS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF TAF LOCATIONS. RAP AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS BETWEEN 600 FT AND 2K FT OF THE SURFACE INCREASE TO 34-36 KTS BETWEEN 05Z AND 14Z AS THE WAVE MOVES IN SO WILL ADD LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO FORECAST...STARTING AND ENDING EARLIER AT KMSN VERSUS THE EASTERN SITES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH KEPT SOME FROST IN THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME CLEARING. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL KEEP THINGS MILDER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. PER RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS...KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN SOUTHEAST FOR THE MORNING HOURS. WOULD NOT EXPECT MORE THAN A BRIEF SHOWERS OR A FEW SPRINKLES. IT SHOULD BE DRY THEN IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY...A BIT MILDER THAN YESTERDAY THOUGH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH PERSISTENT CANADIAN UPPER LOW NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH THE NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW. ONE LAST SHORTWAVE OF NOTE PROGGD TO SWEEP THOUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING DRY SOLUTIONS AND WILL GO THAT ROUTE AS WELL. BUFKIT SHOWS VERY SHALLOW INSTABILITY/LIMITED CAPE. ALONG WITH THIS IS THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SO WILL GO WITH MORE CLOUD COVER BUT KEEP THE DRY LOOK. MID DAY TROUGH PASSAGE THOUGH BETTER 925/850 COLD ADVECTION HOLDS OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING LESS CYCLONIC AS CANADIAN VORTEX STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME. SO WHILE COLD ADVECTION IS STRONGEST TUESDAY NIGHT THERE IS MODIFICATION IN THE THERMAL PATTERN WEDNESDAY AS THE 1000-500 MILLIBAR HEIGHTS MODIFY SOMEWHAT WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW EASING. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM WEAK UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX WITH LOW PRESSURE STAYING WELL SOUTH. COMBO OF PROXIMITY OF NRN FRINGE OF ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED PRECIP WITH THE LOW AND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER FEATURES...WILL MAINTAIN THE SMALL POPS THIS PERIOD...MAINLY IN THE SW CWA WED NGT AND JUST THE FAR SOUTH ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH DECENT CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATING THIS PERIOD. COLD NIGHTS EXPECTED WITH THESE CONDITIONS. SOME FROST POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOKS A BIT BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHTER WIND REGIME OFF THE DECK. PER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY GRID INCLUSION BUT RETAIN GOING WORDING IN THE HWO. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM THE HIGH WILL BE WELL EAST. UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING TROUGH. SOME TIMING DETAILS YET TO WORK OUT THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED TO HELP GENERATE SOME RAIN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. BEST DYNAMICS PROGGD TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND UPPER DCVA ARRIVE. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH A LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT. MARINE...WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THOUGH...AND THE OFFSHORE NATURE OF THE WINDS WILL KEEP THE WAVES ON THE LOWER END. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...REM TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV