Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/05/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
423 PM PDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:39 PM PDT SATURDAY...
FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON HOW RAPIDLY THE COOL DOWN OCCURS. TODAY
THE HRRR MODEL EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED THE DELAYED SEA BREEZE
ONSET WELL AND THIS ALLOWED FOR COASTAL TEMPS IN THE PENINSULA TO
QUICKLY WARM UP INTO THE 80S BUT THEY HAVE SINCE COOLED OFF AS THE
SEA BREEZE HAS ARRIVED AS EXPECTED. SO FOR SOME AREAS ITS
CURRENTLY 20+ DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...BUT AT
OTHERS ITS VERY SIMILAR OR EVEN A LITTLE WARMER. OUR UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A DEEP AND STRONG EAST COAST TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY AND STEADILY WEAKEN
OVER OUR AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR MORE ONSHORE FLOW
TO DEVELOP AND THE EXPECTED COOLING TREND TO TAKE PLACE. READINGS
WILL FALL BACK TO CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
THE COAST COOLING MOST AT FIRST BUT AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS THE
COOLING TREND WILL BE EXPERIENCED EVEN AT THE HOTTER INTERIOR
LOCALES. WILL MONITOR THE PATH OF HURRICANE SIMON WHICH IS
CURRENTLY A MAJOR HURRICANE AND 5 DAY TRACK BRINGS IT INTO BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THE LONGER TERM PATTERN SUGGESTS THERE WILL NOT BE A
MECHANISM TO TRANSPORT THIS STORM OR ITS REMNANT MOISTURE INTO OUR
AREA. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE 7 DAY
PERIOD AS THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WEST. A TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT
OVER THE SOUTHWEST BY NEXT WEEKEND...AS A STRONGER RIDGE MOVES IN
OFF THE PACIFIC. WILL MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A STRONGER
OFFSHORE EVENT DEVELOPING AGAIN BY COLUMBUS DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 PM PDT SATURDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.
&&
.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY (10/4)
ALONG WITH THE DATE(S) IT OCCURRED.
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/4...
KENTFIELD................99/1987/1933
SAN RAFAEL..............100/1980
NAPA....................100/1987
SAN FRANCISCO...........100/1987
SFO AIRPORT..............95/1987
OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN).......92/1987/1985
OAKLAND AIRPORT..........90/1953
RICHMOND.................99/1987
LIVERMORE...............106/1980
MOFFETT FIELD............94/1987
SAN JOSE.................96/1987
GILROY..................103/1980
MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/4...
MONTEREY.................94/1953
SANTA CRUZ..............101/1987
SALINAS..................98/1987
SALINAS AIRPORT.........100/1987
KING CITY...............106/1933
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 01:39 PM PDT SATURDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...HEAT ADVISORY...MONTEREY BAY AREA...URBAN AREAS OF THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND SANTA CLARA VALLEY UNTIL 9 PM.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: SIMS
CLIMATE: BELL
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1003 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WILL COME TO AND END
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT...
DRIER AND COOLER AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. AFTER A COOL MONDAY MORNING MILDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT LATE TUE INTO WED. MORE SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED FRI AS LOW
PRESSURE HEADS E FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH BRIEF HEAVY SHOWERS IS
APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS TRAILING THIS LINE FAIRLY
CLOSELY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING
SLOWLY BUT SURELY.
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT MEANS PATCHY FOG/LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE...BUT DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY WIN
BATTLE OVERNIGHT AS SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR. W/NW WINDS MAY GUST UP TO
20-25 MPH BEFORE DAYBREAK.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HANDLES ALL OF THIS WELL SO ONLY MAKE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POP TO MATCH RADAR TRENDS. HRRR DOING A GOOD JOB
AND WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...
TYPICAL EARLY OCTOBER WEATHER WITH TEMPS IN THE U50S AND L60S
ALONG WITH A BRISK WNW WIND UP TO 20-25 MPH...THEN DIMINISHING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLUMN IS FAIRLY DRY AND CORE OF COLD AIR
ALOFT WELL TO THE WEST. THUS LAPSE RATES MODEST AT BEST SO NOT
MUCH DIURNAL CU/SCU EXPECTED. HENCE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
SUN NIGHT...
CHILLY NIGHT AND FOLLOWED THE COLDER MOS GUIDANCE INSTEAD OF A
MODEL BLEND. MAY NEED FROST ADVISORIES FOR WESTERN/NW MA INTO
SOUTHWEST NH. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AS SURFACE HIGH SLIPS
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WITH PGRAD RELAXING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* MILD MON AND TUE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
* SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED
* MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI
DETAILS...
CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH MOST
OF EXTENDED PERIOD...BEFORE SHIFTING N OF MARITIMES BY NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS KEEPS TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHEAST MUCH OF WEEK BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY WEEKEND.
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE HEADS OFFSHORE RESULTING IN MILDER S/SW FLOW
ACROSS REGION. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MIXING TO NEAR 850 MB SUPPORTS
HIGHS WELL INTO 60S AWAY FROM S COAST.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM GREAT LAKES TUE
AND CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED MORNING. BROAD S/SW FLOW IN
PLACE AHEAD OF FRONT WILL BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED...ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL. DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUDS TUE...HIGHS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO 60S AND LOWER 70S GIVEN
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. AIRMASS BEHIND FRONT IS NOT MUCH COOLER AND WITH
SUNSHINE/W FLOW HIGHS WED SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO REACH 60S TO AROUND
70 ACROSS MOST OF AREA.
THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WITH
DIMINISHING W FLOW. SHOULD STILL BE RATHER MILD WITH HIGHS IN 60S.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER OH VALLEY HEADS E AND
SHOULD CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI NIGHT BEFORE HEADING OFFSHORE
EARLY SAT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO MUCH OF
REGION...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS FOCUSED CLOSER TO S COAST FRI AND FRI
NIGHT. HOWEVER MODELS/ENSEMBLES HINT AT DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE CENTER ALONG FRONT S OF NEW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR MUCH OF PERIOD.
MONDAY...INCREASING S WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE NEAR SHORE
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. SEAS MAY REACH 5 FT ON OPEN S
COASTAL WATERS BY EVENING. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT MAINLY
NEAR S COAST.
TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAINTAINS S/SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KT AND 5-6 FT SEAS ON OPEN S COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE IN DAY AND AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS DURING DAY WITH WIND SHIFT TO
SW AND THEN W...POSSIBLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30KT DURING AFTERNOON.
SEAS BUILD FURTHER ON OPEN WATERS TO AS HIGH AS 7 FT.
THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS AND SEAS.ENGLAND SAT MORNING...WHICH WILL PROBABLY DELAY
CLEARING S OF MASS PIKE UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON OR EVENING. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS SAT AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING MORE FALL-
LIKE AIRMASS TO REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE SUN/SUN NIGHT.
IFR/LIFR PERSIST EARLY TONIGHT IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER...
MAINLY FROM SW NH INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MA AND RI. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO MVFR BEHIND BACK EDGE OF SHOWERS WHERE COLD FRONT IS
LOCATED...AND FURTHER IMPROVE TO VFR A FEW HOURS LATER. TIMING
BRINGS BACK EDGE TO ORH/PVD AROUND 00Z...MHT/BOS/HYA CLOSER TO
03-04Z. BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEST WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR LIKELY ALONG WITH DRY RUNWAYS. WEST
WINDS MAY GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING THE MORNING THEN DIMINISHING IN
THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET.
KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MARGINAL LLWS 22Z-02Z WITH WINDS
AT 2KFT 16040KT.
KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MARGINAL LLWS TIL 21Z WITH WINDS
AT 2 KFT 15040KT.
OUTLOOK...MON THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...VFR. S WINDS GUSTING TO 25KT. PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN FOG LATE
MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY...S WINDS GUSTING TO 25KT. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SHOWERS/
ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS INTERIOR LATE IN DAY...AND ACROSS MOST OF AREA
TUE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...MAINLY
EARLY. VFR WITH CLEARING BY AFTERNOON AND W WINDS GUSTING TO 25KT.
THURSDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT...
LEFTOVER EAST SWELLS EASTERN MA WATERS BUT DEVELOPING SE WIND
WAVES ALL WATERS. SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY RAIN THIS EVENING
THEN MOVING WELL OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED
TSTM SOUTHERN WATERS. SE WINDS BECOME WNW WITH THE WIND SHIFT AND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. VSBY IMPROVES WITH THE WIND SHIFT TOO.
SUNDAY...
WNW WINDS UP TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING DIMINISHES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.
SUN NIGHT...
LIGHT WINDS/GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF PERIOD.
MONDAY...INCREASING S WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE NEAR SHORE
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. SEAS MAY REACH 5 FT ON OPEN S
COASTAL WATERS BY EVENING. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT MAINLY
NEAR S COAST.
TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAINTAINS S/SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KT AND 5-6 FT SEAS ON OPEN S COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE IN DAY AND AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS DURING DAY WITH WIND SHIFT TO
SW AND THEN W...POSSIBLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30KT DURING AFTERNOON.
SEAS BUILD FURTHER ON OPEN WATERS TO AS HIGH AS 7 FT.
THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS AND SEAS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237-
251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/JWD
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/RLG/JWD
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...NOCERA/JWD
MARINE...NOCERA/JWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
815 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA...HIGHLIGHTED BY A DEEP AND NOW
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS TO THE
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE TROUGH IS ANCHORED AND PIVOTING
AROUND A DEEP AND COLD CLOSED LOW FEATURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO REGION. THE AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH THAT WE ARE SEEING
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT BAND DEVELOPMENT. THE LAKE EFFECT CONVECTION
HAS EVEN BEEN STRONG ENOUGH THAT EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE
BEEN DETECTED OVER LAKE HURON AND ERIE IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
OUR FORECAST AREA RESIDES ON THE VERY BOTTOM PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
TROUGH CIRCULATION...HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERIC PUSH WAS STRONG TO
PROPEL THE FIRST REAL DEFINED COLD FRONT OF THE FALL THROUGH THE
PENINSULA TODAY. THE SURFACE FRONT IS NOW SOUTH OF FORT MYERS...AND
WILL CLEAR THE EVERGLADES OVERNIGHT.
A FALL LIKE FEEL AIRMASS UNLIKE ANY SEEN IN SEVERAL MONTHS IS NOW
FILTERING INTO THE PENINSULA. DEWPOINT ARE DOWN INTO THE 50S FROM
THE I-4 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD AND WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER SOUTH IN THE
COMING HOURS. STEPPED OUTSIDE THE OFFICE DURING THE BALLOON LAUNCH
LAST HOUR AND IT CERTAINLY FEELS MORE COMFORTABLE THAN IT DID EVEN A
FEW HOURS AGO.
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR HAS ARRIVED FROM THE I-4 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD WHERE
SKIES ARE CLEAR THIS EVENING. STILL SEEING SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING JET ENERGY PRODUCING SCT-BKN CLOUDS OVER
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS JET ENERGY DOES NOT MOVE MUCH INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO LIKELY WILL NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR OVERNIGHT DOWN TOWARD
FORT MYERS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT IMPACT THE LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR
ADVECTION ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLUMN HAS
UNDERGONE A REMARKABLE CHANGE IN THE PAST 12 HOURS COMPARING THE
04/12Z AND 05/00Z KTBW SOUNDINGS. THE 12Z SOUNDING CALCULATED A
RESPECTABLE PW VALUE FOR EARLY OCTOBER OF 1.88". THE SOUNDING THIS
EVENING CALCULATED A PW VALUE OF 0.5". THAT IS A HUGE CHANGE DURING
THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND REPRESENTS A PW VALUES THAT IS MORE THAN 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR OCTOBER 5TH. THAT IS A DRY
COLUMN!
HAVE RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT BY A COUPLE DEGREES
(ESPECIALLY NORTH OF TAMPA BAY) WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. THE MOS
GUIDANCE IS BIASED COLD DURING THE ADVECTION PERIOD BEHIND A
FRONT...AS THE STEADY WINDS KEEPS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED AND
WARMER THAN THE MOS EQUATION WILL PREDICT. REGARDLESS...WE ARE STILL
LOOKING AT THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR BY SUNRISE
TOMORROW...JUST DO NOT FEEL THE 40S WILL BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. NOW...SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH
CENTER NEARBY...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE MORE EFFICIENT AND THE
MOS NUMBERS ARE LIKELY MUCH MORE REPRESENTATIVE. SO BY SUNRISE
TOMORROW (SUNDAY)...LOOKING FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 OVER LEVY COUNTY...TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S
THROUGH THE I-4 CORRIDOR (LOWER 60S FOR PINELLAS)...AND UPPER 50S TO
MIDDLE 60S DROPPING FURTHER SOUTH.
SUNDAY WILL BE A "CHAMBER OF COMMERCE" TYPE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FOR OCTOBER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 70S NORTH AND
LOWER 80S SOUTH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S. FOR MOST PEOPLE
THIS IS A VERY COMFORTABLE AIRMASS...SO IF YOU CAN...GET OUTSIDE AND
ENJOY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
BEEN A WHILE SINCE THERE WAS NO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT WE ARE HIGH AND DRY. COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED SOUTH OF
KFMY/KRSW EARLY THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS NOW EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. NW
WINDS WILL BECOME LESS GUSTY WITH SUNSET...AND SLOWLY VEER AROUND TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS AND IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR NAPLES. THE SKIES HAVE CLEARED UP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ALONG CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE ONLY SHOWERS ARE LOCATED SOUTH
OF NAPLES AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 5 TO 7 FEET HAS PROMPTED
US TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL OFFSHORE
WATERS AND TAMPA BAY. THESE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL LATE SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY PRODUCING A LIGHTER NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY WIND FLOW LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FEET
ACROSS THE WATERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
TPA 59 78 61 83 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 63 83 64 87 / 0 0 0 10
GIF 57 79 60 84 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 63 78 61 85 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 52 77 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 63 78 68 83 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MROCZKA
MARINE...WYNN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
309 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...
...TURNING NOTICEABLY DRIER AND COOLER SAT NIGHT WITH UNFAVORABLE
BOATING CONDITIONS...
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...POPCORN SHOWERS HAD FORMED ORLANDO SOUTHWARD
TO OKEECHOBEE AT MID AFTERNOON. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WAS SET
UP FROM CANAVERAL TO THE TREASURE COAST. THEREFORE THE MAIN CHANCE
FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE FROM THE SPACE AND TREASURE COAST TO
OKEECHOBEE INTO EARLY EVENING. LOCAL WRF AND HRRR DO NOT SHOW
MUCH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH.
BAND OF PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION IS PROGGED TO REACH NORTHERN AREAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BY THESE MODELS AND INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS TOWARDS
SUNRISE. THE GFS SHOWS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO THE
SOUTHWEST/WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO CONVERGENCE LOOKS WEAK.
HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT INSTABILITY
FOR STORMS WILL BE MARGINAL. MOS POPS ARE NEAR 50 PERCENT IN THE
FAR NORTH AND 40 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...SHOWING 40 PERCENT IN THE NORTH HALF AND 30
PERCENT IN THE SOUTH.
SAT-SAT NIGHT...A MUCH DRIER AND NOTICEABLE COOLER AIR MASS WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND
FIRST SUBSTANTIAL COOL FRONT OF THE SEASON TO CROSS THE REGION.
BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG
THIS WEAKLY CONVERGENT BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST FROM FROM ORLANDO NORTHWARD
IN THE MORNING TRANSITIONING TO THE FAR SOUTH MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
WITH FRONT ALREADY MOVING INTO THE AREA BY MORNING AND LARGE SCALE
FORCING REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
MOS POPS DECREASED TO 10 PERCENT NORTH AND WERE AROUND 40 PERCENT
IN THE SOUTH. COMPROMISED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HAVE 30 POPS
NORTH AND 50 FAR SOUTH.
N/NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LATEST MOS INDICATES TEMPS BELOW
60 FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS FALL FROM ORLANDO TO LEESBURG AND
DAYTONA BEACH...THEN NEAR 60 TO MELBOURNE AND MID 60S AT STUART.
(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)
SUN-SUN NIGHT...SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL
WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AND NORTH WINDS AROUND 10
MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S MAINLY NORTHWEST OF
ORLANDO METRO AREA WITH LOW TO MID 60S FARTHER SOUTH.
MON-THU...FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE FL STRAITS AND BAHAMAS
MONDAY...GRADUALLY WEAKENING. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS OVER THE REGION
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATING AND RAIN CHANCES
SLOWLY INCREASING. MONDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH POPS THEN RISING
INTO THE 20/30 PERCENT RANGE TUE-THU. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
MON/TUE WILL INCREASE TO THE MID/UPPER 80S WED/THU.
&&
.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE SPREADING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
PENINSULA MAINLY KORL SOUTHWARD TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WITH EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE SET UP NEAR THE COAST...THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
SHOULD BE FROM KTIX-KMLB-KVRB-KFPR-KSUA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
SOME FRONTAL BAND CLOUDS/SHOWERS OVERNIGHT SHOULD PRODUCE MVFR
ESPECIALLY KISM-KMCO-KTIX NORTHWARD...THEN TRANSITIONING SOUTHWARD
SAT MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...CHANCE FOR STORMS OVER LAND TO PUSH OFFSHORE THE EAST
COAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH HIGHEST CHANCE FROM ABOUT
CANAVERAL SOUTH. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW AND WEST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS.
THIS SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO 3-4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE NORTH OF THE
CAPE.
SAT-TUE...FIRST SUBSTANTIAL COOL FRONT OF THE SEASON WILL CROSS THE
WATERS SAT WITH N/NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT POSSIBLY INCREASING UP
TO 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE OF THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTY COASTLINE
THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THIS INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS MAY BUILD SEAS
UP TO 6 FEET OFFSHORE INTO SUN. PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN RELAXES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE ONSHORE AND SEAS EXPECTED TO
BE 4 FEET OR LESS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
LAST TIME TEMPS WERE BELOW 60 DEGREES...
DAB...MAY 18 (57)
MCO...APR 22 (57)
MLB...MAY 17 (59)
VRB...MAY 22 (59)
FPR...MAY 22 (57)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 74 85 59 76 / 40 30 0 0
MCO 74 87 59 79 / 40 30 0 0
MLB 76 85 63 78 / 40 40 10 0
VRB 74 88 64 80 / 30 50 20 10
LEE 75 86 57 78 / 40 30 0 0
SFB 75 87 59 78 / 40 30 0 0
ORL 75 86 61 79 / 40 30 0 0
FPR 73 89 65 80 / 30 50 20 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WEATHER....ULRICH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
130 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.AVIATION...
SEA BREEZES HAVE REACHED KPBI...KFLL...AND KAPF...AND SHOULD REACH
REMAINING TERMINALS BY 20Z AT LATEST. EXPECT ONSHORE WINDS BELOW
10 KTS THROUGH MID-EVENING...THEN BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...LIKE YESTERDAY...APPEARS TO BE DELAYED SO
HAVE HEDGED BACK VCTS GROUP UNTIL 19Z. EVEN THIS START TIME MAY BE
TOO SOON. WITH ONLY SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED...DIDN`T ADD TEMPO
GROUPS...BUT ONE OR MORE MAY BE NEEDED LATER...ESPECIALLY AT
MIAMI-DADE TERMINALS. ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER
SUNSET...THEN DIMINISH.
FOR SATURDAY...WEST WINDS INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE
MORNING. VCSH INTRODUCED AT KAPF AT 14Z...ELSEWHERE ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY NOT START UNTIL AFTER 18Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014/
UPDATE...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS ON TRACK WITH EARLIER
THINKING AND DO NOT PLAN TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES IN THE MORNING
UPDATES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEPENING MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SOUTH FLORIDA`S FIRST EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH, THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WESTERLY STEERING FLOW. THIS
ALONG WITH ABUNDANT DIURNAL HEATING TAKING PLACE WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR ALLUDES TO THIS THINKING WITH
CONVECTION GETTING STARTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AROUND 19-20Z AND
THEN MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST COAST METRO AREA THROUGH 00Z. THIS
WAS VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY`S PATTERN AND SEE NO REASON TO GO
AGAINST PERSISTENCE.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014/
DISCUSSION...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL STATES
WILL AMPLIFY WHILE DIGGING SOUTHEAST AND THIS WILL SEND THE FIRST
COLD FRONT OF THIS FALL SEASON ACROSS SOUTH FL SATURDAY NIGHT.
GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS SCENARIO PLAYING OUT. THE 03.00Z ECMWF
IS DELAYED, BUT THE 12Z RUN CONTINUED WITH THIS SCENARIO...SO THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS REMAINS UNCHANGED.
FOR TODAY, TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THEN AS THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS
DUE TO A LIGHTER WIND FLOW REGIME, SCATTERED TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP. HIGH RES MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A TENDENCY FOR ACTIVITY
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF SEA BREEZE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...THEN
THE FLOW PATTERN SUGGESTS A TENDENCY OF MOVEMENT/ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST OVER THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST, ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN SUBURBS.
FOR TONIGHT, ACTIVITY WILL WANE DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER,
MODELS SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THIS
COULD IMPACT THE GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT SO REFLECTED THIS IN THE
FORECAST WITH INCREASING POPS THERE OVERNIGHT.
SOUTH FL WILL LIE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. PARAMETERS DO NOT
SUGGEST ANYTHING BUT ORDINARY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN RISK
BEING LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FL SATURDAY NIGHT,
DRYING SOUTH FL OUT BOTH FROM A RAIN PERSPECTIVE AND A HUMIDITY
PERSPECTIVE. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO THE LOWER TO MID
60S SOUTHERN AREAS TO POSSIBLY THE 50S ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAKING FOR A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE
IN AIRMASS. 12Z ECMWF DID NOT GO QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
LOWERING DEWPOINTS, BUT STILL UNDER 70F. THE MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY,
ALONG WITH TEMPS SOME 5-10F DEGREES COOLER, WILL SIGNAL THAT DRY
SEASON CAN`T BE TOO FAR AWAY. HOWEVER, THIS LOWER HUMIDITY LOOKS
TO ONLY LAST THROUGH MONDAY AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP AND THE
TROPICAL HUMIDITY RETURNS DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS AS THE
DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. /GREGORIA
MARINE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE, BUT AS WINDS
PICK UP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT AND TURN NORTHERLY
BEHIND IT, SEAS WILL BUILD ESPECIALLY OFF THE PALM BEACH COAST.
HOWEVER, RIGHT NOW ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OR SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
/GREGORIA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 87 71 83 / 20 60 30 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 87 73 84 / 20 50 30 10
MIAMI 76 87 73 85 / 20 50 20 10
NAPLES 78 86 69 83 / 30 50 20 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...23/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1002 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.UPDATE...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS ON TRACK WITH EARLIER
THINKING AND DO NOT PLAN TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES IN THE MORNING
UPDATES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEPENING MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SOUTH FLORIDA`S FIRST EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH, THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WESTERLY STEERING FLOW. THIS
ALONG WITH ABUNDANT DIURNAL HEATING TAKING PLACE WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR ALLUDES TO THIS THINKING WITH
CONVECTION GETTING STARTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AROUND 19-20Z AND
THEN MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST COAST METRO AREA THROUGH 00Z. THIS
WAS VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY`S PATTERN AND SEE NO REASON TO GO
AGAINST PERSISTENCE.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 840 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014/
AVIATION...
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ONSHORE AND INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY
MIDDAY. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY
CONDITIONS FCST OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014/
DISCUSSION...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL STATES
WILL AMPLIFY WHILE DIGGING SOUTHEAST AND THIS WILL SEND THE FIRST
COLD FRONT OF THIS FALL SEASON ACROSS SOUTH FL SATURDAY NIGHT.
GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS SCENARIO PLAYING OUT. THE 03.00Z ECMWF
IS DELAYED, BUT THE 12Z RUN CONTINUED WITH THIS SCENARIO...SO THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS REMAINS UNCHANGED.
FOR TODAY, TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THEN AS THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS
DUE TO A LIGHTER WIND FLOW REGIME, SCATTERED TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP. HIGH RES MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A TENDENCY FOR ACTIVITY
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF SEA BREEZE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...THEN
THE FLOW PATTERN SUGGESTS A TENDENCY OF MOVEMENT/ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST OVER THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST, ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN SUBURBS.
FOR TONIGHT, ACTIVITY WILL WANE DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER,
MODELS SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THIS
COULD IMPACT THE GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT SO REFLECTED THIS IN THE
FORECAST WITH INCREASING POPS THERE OVERNIGHT.
SOUTH FL WILL LIE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. PARAMETERS DO NOT
SUGGEST ANYTHING BUT ORDINARY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN RISK
BEING LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FL SATURDAY NIGHT,
DRYING SOUTH FL OUT BOTH FROM A RAIN PERSPECTIVE AND A HUMIDITY
PERSPECTIVE. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO THE LOWER TO MID
60S SOUTHERN AREAS TO POSSIBLY THE 50S ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAKING FOR A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE
IN AIRMASS. 12Z ECMWF DID NOT GO QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
LOWERING DEWPOINTS, BUT STILL UNDER 70F. THE MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY,
ALONG WITH TEMPS SOME 5-10F DEGREES COOLER, WILL SIGNAL THAT DRY
SEASON CAN`T BE TOO FAR AWAY. HOWEVER, THIS LOWER HUMIDITY LOOKS
TO ONLY LAST THROUGH MONDAY AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP AND THE
TROPICAL HUMIDITY RETURNS DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS AS THE
DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. /GREGORIA
MARINE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE, BUT AS WINDS
PICK UP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT AND TURN NORTHERLY
BEHIND IT, SEAS WILL BUILD ESPECIALLY OFF THE PALM BEACH COAST.
HOWEVER, RIGHT NOW ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OR SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
/GREGORIA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 87 76 87 71 / 20 20 60 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 78 87 73 / 40 20 50 30
MIAMI 89 76 87 73 / 50 20 50 20
NAPLES 88 78 86 69 / 20 30 50 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1245 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...
226 PM CDT
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS EVENING WILL BE ON POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLY IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CWFA THIS EVENING. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT THE
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK...WITH HIGHS THIS AFTN STRUGGLING TO WARM
BEYOND 70 TO THE MID 70S SOUTH OF A PONTIAC TO VALPO LINE. VERY
MOIST AIRMASS HAS PUMPED DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW/MID 60S THIS AFTN.
THE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO GET GOING THIS AFTN ACROSS
THE BULK OF THE AREA...LARGELY DUE TO THE THICK SOLAR SHIELDING. AS
THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHWEST IL THIS
EVE...THIS SHOULD HELP WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION. HI-RES GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING A LINE SEGMENT...HOWEVER TRYING
TO PIN-DOWN WHERE THIS LINE DEVELOPS IS THE LARGEST CHALLENGE.
EITHER WAY...EXPECT A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTH
TOWARDS CHICAGO EARLY THIS EVE. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE...A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD EASILY
PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE GREATEST SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF GIBSON CITY TO VALPO LINE...SO ANY STRONGER
STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THAT AREA COULD SEE STRONG ASCENT AND
POSSIBLY A ROTATING UPDRAFT.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHUD QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE EAST AS THE SFC LOW
LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...AND WINDS SHIFT WEST. 850MB THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER WILL
LIKELY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFT DAYBREAK FRI. LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN MILD...IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
STRONG PRESSURE RISES ARE POISED TO ARRIVE FRI AS THE PUNCH OF MUCH
COOLER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST
AT SUNRISE...OR SHORTLY AFTER. BY EARLY AFTN EXPECT TEMPS TO BEGIN
FALLING A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND MID
50S IN THE SOUTHEAST. 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ARRIVING OVERHEAD
MIDDAY FRI...WITH A PERIOD OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARRIVING MIDDAY.
WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING NORTHWEST AND WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINING
THE GUSTY WINDS SHUD PERSIST THRU FRI NGT/SAT MORNING. CURRENTLY
EXPECT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO ALSO PERSIST THRU SAT...HOWEVER COULD
SEE DRY AIR ARRIVING SAT MORNING AND PERHAPS RESULT IN A DRY DAY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWFA WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO MOVE BEYOND THE UPR 40S IN A FEW PLACES SAT...PERHAPS
REACHING 50 SOUTH OF I-80. YES FOR HIGHS...WHICH IS APPROXIMATELY
15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH WIND WILL LINGER SAT NIGHT TO
PREVENT FROST FORMATION...SO HAVE HELD THIS OUT OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST. BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN DIP INTO THE MID/UPR 30S.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIME/NORTH ATLANTIC...AS THE
ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN THIS FEATURE THRU THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED. THIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE PROLONGED TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...AND CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR. CLOSER TO LATER IN THE
WEEK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STRENGTH OF THE BLOCK WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN...HOWEVER SOME ELEMENTS OF TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE
WILL CONTINUE. PERIODIC SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL
CANADA AND BRING SOME LGT PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED...BUT NOT EXPECTING
AT THIS TIME ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* FAIRLY PERSISTENT RAIN THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH TEMPORARY IFR
VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER.
* IFR TO LOWER MVFR CIGS THROUGH DAYBREAK. MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
* WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY BY DAYBREAK AND INCREASING IN
SPEED. GUSTS OF 25KT+ LIKELY AT TIMES TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVE.
* CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A DYNAMIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS MOVING DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA THROUGH
12Z. WITH THE LOW EVOLVING OVER THE AREA WOULD EXPECT TO SEE IFR
CIGS BLOSSOM SOME BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. IN ADDITION...RAIN SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH DAYBREAK
THANKS TO THE SUPPORT OF THE DEEPENING LOW. WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME BREEZY.
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. MVFR CLOUDS
SHOULD BE SUPPORTED AT LEAST THROUGH NOON AND MAYBE EVEN MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. HOW WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON IS A CHALLENGE YET...BUT THE TREND IS BECOMING MORE
LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE SHOWERS IN THE REGION WHICH COULD BRING
AT LEAST TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AGAIN. IN ADDITION...WIND GUSTS
MAY ACTUALLY RAMP UP SOME IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT. CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER LATER FRIDAY EVENING INTO
OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY FILTERS IN.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH IN RAIN MORE OFTEN THAN NOT THROUGH DAYBREAK. HIGH IN
ENDING TIME OF RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING.
* LOW IN CIG HEIGHT THROUGH 13Z AS TEMPORARY HOLES TO VFR ARE SEEN
IN THE REGION AND MAY CAUSE RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS. IN
GENERAL...UNDER 1500 FT CIGS ARE EXPECTED.
* MEDIUM IN VISIBILITY THROUGH DAYBREAK.
* HIGH IN WIND DIRECTION AND MEDIUM IN HOW HIGH GUSTS WILL REACH
TODAY.
* MEDIUM IN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY...CHANCE SHRA AND MVFR CIGS EARLY.
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA LATE.
MONDAY...CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA LATE.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
1249 PM CDT
MAIN MARINE FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF
WESTERLY GALES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN
BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND TO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY FRIDAY
MORNING. IN THE PROCESS...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. A COMBINATION OF MUCH COOLER AIR AND THE TIGHTENING OF THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEEPENING LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING A
PERIOD OF 35 KT GALES DEVELOPING BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MAINTAIN THE COOL ADVECTION ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH WINDS SLOWLY EASING TO 25-30 KT SATURDAY NIGHT. DEEP LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LAKES ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SOME WEAKENING
OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
LAKES AS ANOTHER WEAKER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS LOOKS TO
KEEP WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT/ABOVE 20 KT INTO SUNDAY.
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
OVER THE ILLINOIS NEAR SHORE ZONES...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FARTHER EAST ALONG THE INDIANA SHORE.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ744-LMZ745...7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM
FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744-
LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878...4 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743...7 AM FRIDAY
TO 10 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1204 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Ongoing convection...as well as more stratiform rain and vcts
across the CWA this evening... and likely to continue. Forecast is
well representative. Though threat is dwindling for severe weather
in Central Illinois as the airmass is worked over and accessible
instability is highly limited...plenty of rain out there to
continue more of a flood threat. Area with the FF watch will
likely continue into the overnight hours. Precip rates have
reduced considerably and isolated areas are seeing some limited urban
water issues...but will continue to watch the issues through the
overnight hours. No immediate updates to the forecast anticipated
at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Two concerns with this part of the forecast are the severe weather
and flash flood potential.
Early afternoon radar imagery showing an increase in showers and
thunderstorms along and east of I-57. Areas southeast of I-70 have
had some breaks in the cloud cover, which has allowed CAPE`s to rise
to over 2000 J/kg. While the late morning severe weather outlook
covers the entire CWA, it is looking like areas south of I-72 will
be the main concern. Additional line of storms moving through south
central Missouri will be entering our forecast area very late
afternoon or early evening per the HRRR model. The high-res models
are also showing some convection along the front itself, which will
be entering the western CWA toward midnight and crossing the CWA
overnight. Forecast soundings are rather moist through 10kft, so
think that damaging winds and intense lightning will be more of a
concern than large hail.
In regards to the flood threat, the overnight rainfall deposited
from 2.5 to 4 inches along the southwest edge of the CWA as far east
as Taylorville, with more isolated streaks of 2+ inches near
Mattoon. Precipitable water values expected to be around 1.8 to 1.9
inches, which is about 3 standard deviations above normal for early
October. Another couple inches potentially may occur through
tonight, especially across the southwest CWA. Will leave the flash
flood watch in its current configuration.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
By Friday morning, the front will be through the area and any pcpn
will be in the form of showers and should only be in the eastern
parts of the CWA. So, early Friday pops will just be high chance and
then decrease during the day. However, with the upper level trough
still west of the area, any clearing behind the front will allow
cold air clouds and scattered showers to develop and spread across
the area for Friday afternoon. Will have slight chance pops in the
forecast for this type of pcpn. Once the trough rotates through, the
upper level cold low pressure area will drop into the Grt Lks and
bring continued daytime/diurnal clouds in the area for Sat and Sun.
Any pcpn associated with this will be very light, primarily be over
northeast IL, and not worth the mention at this time.
Temps will become cooler the end of the week and into the weekend,
after the front moves through. 850mb temps forecast to be around -2
to -4 for the weekend, so coldest temps look to be Fri night through
Sat night. Would not be surprised to see some frost in some areas in
the northwest Sat night, if clouds can clear out and winds become
lighter.
Cyclonic flow will remain over the area into the beginning of next
week, but not quite as deep as it is for this weekend. That being
said, the models do forecast another frontal system to move into the
area Sunday night and remain in the area through Monday night. So, a
chance of pcpn will continue over the area through that time period.
Past Monday night, any pcpn chances will be small, in the 20pct
range. This will only be seen in the grids, with nothing mentioned
in the worded forecast. So, unsettled pattern looks to take hold for
most of the week.
Temps through the extended will remain on the cool side, but as the
pattern becomes more zonal, there should be a slight warming trend
for the later part of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Generally, convection becoming shower dominated and losing vcts
threat for the most part. Have eroded that mention but front still
to the west and will continue the shower threat through the
overnight hours. Trof aloft remaining in place and although there
is currently a bit of a gap between the front over the Miss River
Valley and the stronger one well to the NW...the break in cigs is
narrow and will likely close quickly tomorrow if any clearing
skies move in. With plenty of llvl moisture in place... not
clearing out the TAFs, but will be optimistic enough to return to
VFR mid day and not bring it back down after sunset just yet.
Winds could be a bit gusty tomorrow as the pressure gradient
increases on the backside of the front.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 6 AM CDT Friday FOR ILZ040-047-049>052.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1140 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS FELL SINCE YESTERDAY FROM ABOUT INTERSTATE 80 ON TO
THE SOUTH WHERE AMOUNTS WERE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER THIS MORNING. SEVERAL
LOCATIONS GETTING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON...DUE TO TIGHT GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
LOW PRESSURE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...THE WINDS SHOULD STAY
BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. BUT DID ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT TO COVER THIS SITUATION. EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOUT STEADY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S...MAKING FOR A VERY CHILLY DAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE EXTREME EASTERN AREAS BY 7 AM. THUS
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH MID MORNING WITH WINDS ON THE
INCREASE. THE NEXT RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN IOWA. IF CURRENT RAP TRENDS ARE CORRECT...
THIS PRECIPITATION WOULD REACH THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS AROUND MID
DAY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS THE MAIN LOW IN UPPER MICHIGAN WITH A WEAK
LOW BETWEEN KPIA AND KSPI. THE FIRST FRONT RAN FROM THE MAIN LOW
TO JUST EAST OF KUNO IN MISSOURI WITH A WEAK TROF BEHIND THE FRONT
IN EASTERN IOWA. THE MAIN COLD FRONT RAN FROM KDLH TO NEAR KLAA IN
COLORADO. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 60S AND 70S AHEAD OF THE FIRST
COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY 40S AND 50S AHEAD OF THE SECOND FRONT. DEW
POINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S WERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
THE RAIN SHIELD IS MAKING GOOD PROGRESS EASTWARD AND SHOULD BE
ALONG/EAST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KFEE TO KPIA BY SUNRISE. RAIN WILL
LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE FAR EAST AFTER SUNRISE. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SUNRISE AND DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...BUT NEW DIURNAL LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AS THE COLD AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NEBRASKA LOOKS TO
BRUSH THE FAR SOUTH FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE BIG STORY IS THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AND THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRATOSPHERIC
INTRUSION OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR MOVING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. THUS WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING THE MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST
GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRATOSPHERIC INTRUSION. INTERESTINGLY...
TRENDS WITH THE PRESSURE FALLS WOULD SUPPORT THE STRONGEST WINDS
BEING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A LITTLE OFF THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.
HOWEVER...ONCE THE SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DO A SLOW FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE CLOUDS.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WRAP AROUND CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS. THE RAIN FALLING IN THE DRY
ATMOSPHERE WILL COOL THE COLUMN WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOPING IN
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS FOR AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30.
ANY SNOW THAT DOES OCCUR LATE TONIGHT WILL MELT ON CONTACT WITH THE
VERY WARM GROUND.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS PROGGED TO
LIFT INTO ONTARIO AND PHASE WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY RESULTING IN
DEEPENING UPPER LOW MEANDERING ABOUT THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN NORTHWEST
FLOW... WHICH WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF PCPN MAINLY IN THE AM ACROSS
NORTHEAST 1/3-1/2 WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. FAVORABLE THERMAL PARAMETERS NORTH (850 TEMPS -3 TO -4C AND
925 TEMPS AROUND 0 TO -1C) WITH WBZ AROUND 1500 FT AGL SUGGEST POTENTIAL
FOR SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN WITH ANY LIGHT RAIN... MOSTLY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST IA AND NORTHWEST IL AROUND SUNRISE AND
SHORTLY THEREAFTER BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN THEN ENDING GENERALLY
PRIOR TO MIDDAY. BLUSTERY AND COOL WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL AND
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT... CHILLY LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S ANTICIPATED WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT. CHALLENGE WILL BE AMOUNT
OF MID CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT W/SW WINDS AND IMPACT ON TEMPS AND ALSO FROST
POTENTIAL. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT FROST MENTION PATCHY ATTIM AND NORTH OF I-80.
SUNDAY-THURSDAY... CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATING. PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWER CHANCES AS IMPULSES SHUTTLED DOWN ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW... WITH CONSENSUS FOCUSING ON MONDAY AND LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS MAIN PCPN WINDOWS BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW THIS
FAR OUT. LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK SOME INDICATION THAT FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO SEMI-ZONAL WHICH WILL BRING ABOUT SOME MODERATION ON TEMPS
CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
VFR/BRIEFLY MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THEN VFR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...HAASE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
641 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE EXTREME EASTERN AREAS BY 7 AM. THUS
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH MID MORNING WITH WINDS ON THE
INCREASE. THE NEXT RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN IOWA. IF CURRENT RAP TRENDS ARE CORRECT...
THIS PRECIPITATION WOULD REACH THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS AROUND MID
DAY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS THE MAIN LOW IN UPPER MICHIGAN WITH A WEAK
LOW BETWEEN KPIA AND KSPI. THE FIRST FRONT RAN FROM THE MAIN LOW
TO JUST EAST OF KUNO IN MISSOURI WITH A WEAK TROF BEHIND THE FRONT
IN EASTERN IOWA. THE MAIN COLD FRONT RAN FROM KDLH TO NEAR KLAA IN
COLORADO. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 60S AND 70S AHEAD OF THE FIRST
COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY 40S AND 50S AHEAD OF THE SECOND FRONT. DEW
POINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S WERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
THE RAIN SHIELD IS MAKING GOOD PROGRESS EASTWARD AND SHOULD BE
ALONG/EAST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KFEE TO KPIA BY SUNRISE. RAIN WILL
LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE FAR EAST AFTER SUNRISE. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SUNRISE AND DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...BUT NEW DIURNAL LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AS THE COLD AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NEBRASKA LOOKS TO
BRUSH THE FAR SOUTH FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE BIG STORY IS THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AND THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRATOSPHERIC
INTRUSION OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR MOVING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. THUS WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING THE MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST
GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRATOSPHERIC INTRUSION. INTERESTINGLY...
TRENDS WITH THE PRESSURE FALLS WOULD SUPPORT THE STRONGEST WINDS
BEING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A LITTLE OFF THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.
HOWEVER...ONCE THE SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DO A SLOW FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE CLOUDS.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WRAP AROUND CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS. THE RAIN FALLING IN THE DRY
ATMOSPHERE WILL COOL THE COLUMN WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOPING IN
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS FOR AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30.
ANY SNOW THAT DOES OCCUR LATE TONIGHT WILL MELT ON CONTACT WITH THE
VERY WARM GROUND.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS PROGGED TO
LIFT INTO ONTARIO AND PHASE WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY RESULTING IN
DEEPENING UPPER LOW MEANDERING ABOUT THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN NORTHWEST
FLOW... WHICH WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF PCPN MAINLY IN THE AM ACROSS
NORTHEAST 1/3-1/2 WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. FAVORABLE THERMAL PARAMETERS NORTH (850 TEMPS -3 TO -4C AND
925 TEMPS AROUND 0 TO -1C) WITH WBZ AROUND 1500 FT AGL SUGGEST POTENTIAL
FOR SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN WITH ANY LIGHT RAIN... MOSTLY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST IA AND NORTHWEST IL AROUND SUNRISE AND
SHORTLY THEREAFTER BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN THEN ENDING GENERALLY
PRIOR TO MIDDAY. BLUSTERY AND COOL WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL AND
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT... CHILLY LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S ANTICIPATED WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT. CHALLENGE WILL BE AMOUNT
OF MID CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT W/SW WINDS AND IMPACT ON TEMPS AND ALSO FROST
POTENTIAL. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT FROST MENTION PATCHY ATTIM AND NORTH OF I-80.
SUNDAY-THURSDAY... CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATING. PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWER CHANCES AS IMPULSES SHUTTLED DOWN ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW... WITH CONSENSUS FOCUSING ON MONDAY AND LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS MAIN PCPN WINDOWS BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW THIS
FAR OUT. LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK SOME INDICATION THAT FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO SEMI-ZONAL WHICH WILL BRING ABOUT SOME MODERATION ON TEMPS
CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
AN AREA OF 1-2 KFT AGL CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA IS NOT BEING
HANDLED BY THE MODELS AND WILL OVERSPREAD EASTERN IOWA. DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH THESE CLOUD CIGS TO VFR BY 00Z/04.
AFT 06Z/04 MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST IOWA WITH THE
POSSIBLY OF RAIN MIXED WITH A LITTLE SNOW.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
133 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
...UPDATED SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
THE FIRST COLD FRONT IS EXITING OUR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES AS I
WRITE THIS DISCUSSION. IN THE WEST, CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SCATTERING OUT
AND WINDS SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY. BY 22Z, THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
SHOULD HAVE CLEARED OUT, AND BY 02Z THE EASTERN HALF. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN NEAR SUNSET, AND WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EVERYWHERE BY THAT TIME. NORMALLY, WITH RECENT RAINS AND
LIGHT WINDS, I AT FIRST CONSIDERED PUTTING IN SOME MENTION OF FOG
LATE TONIGHT. BUT THEN I REALIZED ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH PRIOR TO SUNRISE FRIDAY. WINDS BEHIND THE OVERNIGHT FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE NORTH AT 18G28KT, THUS NEGATING
THE CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOWS TONIGHT ARE VERY CLOSE TO WHAT
THE NAMDNG25 AND RAP MODELS ARE FORECASTING, RANGING FROM NEAR 40F
DEGREES IN WAKEENEY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, TO THE MID 40S FROM
LARNED TO DODGE CITY TO LIBERAL, AND TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS.
THAT 2ND COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WILL USHER IN COLD AIR. THE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH JUST A FEW CLOUDS WILL
BE PASSING AND SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY, TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL STRUGGLE TO RISE IN THE COLD AIR MASS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
ONLY REACH AROUND THE 60F DEGREE MARK FRIDAY NORTHWEST OF A JOHNSON
CITY TO GARDEN CITY TO HAYS LINE. WINDS WILL DROP OFF TOWARD SUNSET
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FALLS, AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RAPIDLY
DURING FRIDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SATURDAY WHILE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH A SERIES OF H5 VORT
MAXIMA WILL CONTINUE TO CYCLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, A NUMBER OF WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVES WILL HELP USHER SURGES OF DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. AS A RESULT, PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS WILL HELP REINFORCE
THE COOLER AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND 5C IN CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
THE 0C ISOTHERM WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS. ADDITIONALLY, THE MODELS INDICATE A LEE SIDE
TROUGH BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TURNING LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS MORE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST
KANSAS WHERE H85 TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSER TO 10C.
WITH THE HELP OF A DOWNSLOPE FLOW, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER WITH LOWS NEAR 40F. HOWEVER, LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30(F) IN CENTRAL KANSAS WITH AREAS OF
PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT SATURDAY ENHANCING THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS DRAWING WARMER
AIR BACK INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, MUCH COOLER
AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCKED IN ACROSS EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS RESULTING IN A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EAST TO
WEST ACROSS THE STATE. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
REACHING UP NEAR 10C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARD MID SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH H85 TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE 15C IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS EASILY UP INTO THE 70S(F) ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 70S(F), IF AT ALL, IN CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR
THE I-70 CORRIDOR DEPENDING WHERE THE GRADIENT SETS UP. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL THEN PROCEED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
A COLD FRONT NOW POSITIONED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL MOVE THE
THE ARE BETWEEN AND 10 AMD 12 UTC. AN ISALLOBARIC INCREASE IN
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BUMP NORTH WINDS INTO THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. SOME BRIEF AREAS OF BROKEN 1500-2500 FT
STRATUS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE TERMINALS
TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 62 38 73 50 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 61 37 74 49 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 62 40 75 50 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 64 40 75 50 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 60 36 70 50 / 0 0 0 0
P28 65 38 72 51 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1228 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
One band of clouds will try to clear the eastern end of the
forecast area early this afternoon, just as another area enters
the west. The previously solid band of rain over western Missouri
appears to be drying up and model soundings from our region do not
show much instability, for storms, but perhaps there will be just
enough lift with the attendant mid/upper level impulse to produce
some showers/rain as it swings through the area generally through
00Z. The latest HRRR and the 12Z Hi-Res WRF runs do not develop
much precipitation in our region at all. Will keep the small
chance PoPs going for now, and will adjust as necessary based on
radar trends this afternoon.
The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
Short wave seen moving NE across MO into IL, with surface cold
front still to our west. Area of convection is through the region,
with only left over showers. Overall a minor event as expected
with a mostly below svr wind gusts (marginal hail). A few gusts in
west KY around svr thresholds coincident with the correctly
forecast increase in h8 winds around 06z. About it. Rest of today,
focus will turn toward a secondary lobe, that will reach east
MO/west IL by 21z and quickly move east through the early evening.
We added thunder back for this afternoon given mid level lapse
rates around 7, lowering freezing levels to 6.5-8k/ft, and
sfc/blyr li`s falling to near or just below zero. Could be very
small hail as well. After that, dry 03z on. Rather cool Saturday,
and Saturday night. Despite some lows forecast in the upper 30s
Saturday night, wind and lower RH`s should preclude patchy frost.
Sunday, temps moderate.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
Much of the long term will be influenced by an upper level low
centered over Ontario Province in southern Canada. South of this
low, a broad upper level trough will envelope a large part of the
central and eastern U.S.
Mainly dry conditions will result. However, a few impulses of energy
rotating around the low and through the base of the trough are
forecast to bring an increase in clouds and at least a small chance
for precipitation early next week. Models - in particular the GFS -
are still not in the best agreement, so overall confidence remains
relatively low. However, the greatest precipitation potential still
appears to be centered on a window from Sunday night into Monday
night.
Temperatures during this time will remain below normal. Highs Sunday
and Monday will range through the lower 70s, with lows in the upper
40s to lower 50s. A warming trend will occur by mid week as the
trough shifts east and allows a ridge to build in its place. Highs
by Wednesday and Thursday are forecast in the mid to upper 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
MVFR ceilings should be exiting the KEVV and KOWB shortly, but
sratocumulus development will likely keep a lower VFR ceiling over
those areas through the afternoon. As a mid/upper-level impulse
dives southeast toward the area, a large area of lower VFR clouds
will quickly overspread the entire area through the afternoon.
Latest trends on radar and in guidance are drier across the area
late this afternoon. Decided to insert a TEMPO at all sites for
2 hours of a VFR shower, just to hint at the potential, but
significant impacts are not expected. A few cu may linger over the
northeast tonight, but otherwise clear skies are expected tonight
and Saturday morning.
Gusty west northwest winds are expected to continue through the
afternoon and into the early evening in most locations. They will
eventually die down a bit, but they will return with mixing by
mid-morning Saturday.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...Noles
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
358 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
THE SFC LOW THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT IS NOW AT 984MB BETWEEN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND JAMES BAY. ALOFT...THE UPPER LOW IS LOCATED NEAR
DLH...WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER THE SFC LOW TO THE NE.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL CLOSE OFF N OF LAKE SUPERIOR /BECOMING THE
DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL LOW/ TONIGHT INTO SAT AS THE CURRENT UPPER LOW
MOVES S OF THE CWA BEFORE WEAKENING INTO A TROUGH SAT. THE FIRST SFC
FRONT IS ALREADY THROUGH THE CWA...WITH THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT
JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR. MAIN AREA OF PRECIP IS JUST W OF THE CWA
UNDER THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING IN THE W-WNW FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN PRECIP COVERAGE UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT THIS EVENING...WITH PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SSE
THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE
PRECIP WILL INCREASE IN THE NNW-NW FLOW WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO
-4C TO -6C LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT. TYPICAL HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS OF NWRN UPPER MI MAY SEE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...OR A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. NO ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE A
DUSTING ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN FALLING OVER THE WRN CWA AS COLD AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE AREA CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE COLDEST TEMPS TONIGHT ACROSS GOGEBIC COUNTY WITH MIN TEMPS NEAR
FREEZING. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT LOWS NEAR OR BELOW 40F. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NWRN
UPPER MI...AND IN THE MID 40S OVER ERN UPPER MI AND NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN.
DECREASED WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR A LITTLE THIS EVENING...BUT MORE
SUBSTANTIALLY TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SINCE THE CWA WILL BE
BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LOWS...THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAD TO
CUT SOME OF THE GALES OFF EARLIER.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
CLOUDY...COOL...AND PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH/LOW ROTATES OVER
ONTARIO. THAT UPPER TROUGH IS THE SAME ONE THAT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL ROTATE NORTH AND CLOSE OFF OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO. THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH
SOME SLIGHT WOBBLING...THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND KEEP
COOL/MOIST AIR STREAMING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
WITH ONE OF THE MAIN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE AREA TO COME UNDER WEAK
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WHICH WILL HELP LEAD TO DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS
AND STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION AROUND 5-6KFT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOME PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA DURING THE EVENING (ESPECIALLY KEWEENAW
AND NORTH CENTRAL/EAST) AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. WITH WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR TEMPS AROUND 10C AND 850MB TEMPS OF -4C...WOULD EXPECT
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS AND TRANSITIONING TO
LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL START OUT AT NORTHWEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN GRADUALLY BACK TO THE WEST BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE
INVERSION IN PLACE AROUND 5KFT...DON/T EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION
WITH THE LAKE EFFECT TO BE TOO STRONG...ESPECIALLY WITH A NEAR
SURFACE MIXED LAYER KEEPING CLOUD DEPTH IN THE 3-4.5KFT RANGE. LIKE
THE PREVIOUS SHIFT/S IDEA FOR POPS WITH LIKELY VALUES OVER THE
NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED AREAS FOR SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WHILE TRANSITIONING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS PRETTY
TRICKY DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO SEVERAL OVERLAPPING FEATURES.
INITIALLY SATURDAY EVENING...EXPECT SNOW TO BE FALLING ALOFT AS
MUCH OF THE CLOUD IS WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH AREA AND THEN
ENCOUNTERING A WARM LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS WARM LAYER AND
WETBULB0 HEIGHTS WILL CONTROL RAIN/SNOW POTENTIAL. THE LOWEST
VALUES WILL OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
CWA (WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALLING NEAR THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT)...BUT
THAT IS ALSO WHEN THE WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND
WEST-SOUTHWEST. THUS...WOULD EXPECT THE LOWEST POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION TO BE WHERE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW WILL BE.
THEREFORE...ONLY THINK THERE WILL BE PATCHY AREAS OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT. WHERE THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY NIGHT (OVER THE KEWEENAW)...THINK
THE FLOW OFF THE 48-50 DEGREE LAKE SUPERIOR WATER WILL HELP KEEP THE
LOWER LEVELS WARMER AND KEEP THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY RAIN. THAT
IDEA MATCHES THE WETBULB0 HEIGHTS OVER THE KEWEENAW...WITH ONLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING SOME SNOW MIXING IN.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY...DIURNAL HEATING WILL TRANSITION ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS TO ALL RAIN.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE MORE OF THE SAME...WITH THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOKS TO DECREASE FURTHER AND WILL LIKELY LIMIT LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL EVEN WITH 850MB TEMPS STILL AROUND -2C. THE MOST
DIFFICULT PART WITH THIS PERIOD AND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
TIMING ANY WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH ALONG WITH THE MUCH STRONG
WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA WITH POPS...RAMPING
THEM UP MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEPART TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE
TO FOLLOW WETBULB0 HEIGHTS FOR RAIN/SNOW POTENTIAL...WHICH LEADS TO
SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT (GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE DIURNAL CYCLE).
AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST...SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION TO
MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA AND PUSHING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. MODELS INDICATING A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN SOLUTIONS DIVERGE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT FOR
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER COOL DOWN APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
PRIMARILY USED HRRR AND NAM MODELS FOR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH
CIGS REDUCING TO IFR/LIFR AS MOIST AIR RIDES UP THE TERRAIN OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR. DO EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS /POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW AT CMX
AND IWD/...BUT INTENSITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES
SIGNIFICANTLY. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS SATURDAY MORNING AS
LOW LEVEL MIXING OCCURS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN WINDS OVER ZONE OF STRONGER WEST WINDS IN
THE VCNTY OF KEWEENAW AND STANNARD ROCK AND DOWNSTREAM OVER PORTIONS
OF CNTRL AND LAKE SUPERIOR. WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...SO HAVE SHORTENED THE GALE
WARNINGS. WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
DECREASING WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. BEST CHANCE OF 35-40
KTS WOULD BE FM NCNTRL LK SUPERIOR TOWARD STANNARD ROCK AND OFFSHORE
OF MUNISING. HOWEVER...NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS WILL PERSIST
INTO SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING TOWARD UPPER LAKES ON TUESDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ265-266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
203 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
996MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR MARQUETTE THIS MORNING WITH COLD
FRONT WORKING ACROSS EASTERN MARQUETTE INTO NORTHERN MENOMINEE
COUNTY PER SFC OBS AND 0.5 VELOCITY LOOP ON MQT RADAR. INITIAL
SURGE OF HEAVY RAIN LIFTED OVER CWA LATE LAST EVENING. ADDITIONAL
AREA OF RAIN WITH SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ON THE COOL SIDE OF
DEEPENING SFC LOW IS MAINLY AFFECTING WESTERN CWA WHILE SHOWERS
WITH HEAVIER EMBEEDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE OVER MAINLY FAR
EASTERN CWA. IN BTWN...SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN LAST
COUPLE HOURS OVER SCNTRL CWA VCNTY OF KESC. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP
SHOWS ANOTHER BATCH OF WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND
NORTHERN ILLIONIS TIED TO FORCING FM SHORTWAVE CROSSING ILLINOIS IS
POISED TO LIFT ACROSS MAINLY EAST HALF OF CWA THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...IT WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT OVER THE WEST AS NEXT BATCH OF
FORCING STAYS TO THE EAST AND LIFT FM STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHING OVER
WESTERN MINNESOTA WILL NOT ARRIVE OVER WESTERN CWA UNTIL THIS AFTN.
DESPITE THE LULL IN RAIN OVER THE WEST...CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER
MINNESOTA WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO COOL
INTO THE 40S IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS OVER CNTRL UPR
MICHIGAN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH ANOTHER FEW HOURS WITH TEMPS IN
THE 60S ARE EXPECTED FOR EASTERN CWA.
BY AFTERNOON...SHORTWAVE OVER MINNESOTA WILL MOVE TO WISCONSIN BUT
IS WILL SLOW UP AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN TRIES TO CATCH UP WITH THE LEAD WAVE. RESULT WILL BE
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE INTRODUCTION OF HIGHER POPS OVER WESTERN CWA
THIS AFTN. AT THE SFC...LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN TO AROUND 985MB
WHILE MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST OF LK SUPERIOR. AS THIS OCCURS...ZONE
OF STRONGER WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTN MAINLY
FROM WESTERN LK SUPERIOR ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR. SOUNDINGS WITHIN THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE
NOT ALL THAT UNSTABLE BUT STILL POINT TO SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS
OF 25-35MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE SHALLOW MIXED LAYER OVER 40 MPH FOR
AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
KEWEENAW. PRIME TIME FOR STRONGEST WINDS APPEARS TO BE 20Z-24Z OR
4 PM TO 8 PM ET. ELSEWHERE ACROSS CWA...PEAK WIND GUSTS SHOULD STAY
IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE.
THE STRONG WEST WINDS COULD RESULT IN WAVES BUILDING TOWARD 10 FEET
ON THE WEST SHORE OF THE KEWEENAW WHICH COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER THAN
NORMAL WATER LEVELS ON LK SUPERIOR MAY RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
BEACH EROSION. HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
BASED ON LOCAL GUIDANCE...WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY KIND OF LAKESHORE
FLOOD ADVISORY SINCE WAVES WOULD BE MORE TOWARD 10 FEET INSTEAD OF
PUSHING INTO THE 15 TO 20 FEET RANGE.
FOR TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND THE SASKATCHEWAN SHORTWAVE
AFFECTS MAINLY WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN WITH INCREASING H7-H5 Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND H8-H7 RH. LARGE SCALE FORCING COMBINES WITH NW
1000-850MB WINDS AND H85 TEMPS COOLING TO -3C TO RESULT IN
SUFFICIENT SETUP FOR LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION AS LK SUPERIOR
WATER TEMPS ARE ANYWHERE FM +7C TO +11C OVER THE OPEN WATERS AND
AROUND +14 TO +16C IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
MAXIMIZED IN THE EVENING OVER WESTERN CWA SO HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS
FOR UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WEST. EVENTUALLY THOUGH...SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WORKS SOUTH ACROSS LK SUPERIOR SWITCHING WINDS FM WEST TO
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THIS ALONG WITH THE OVER-WATER INSTABILITY
SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS ALONG MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO TUMBLE AND SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE MIDDLE 30S
OVER FAR WEST TO LOWER 40S CLOSE TO LK SUPERIOR. SOUNDINGS OVER
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN SHOW ENOUGH COOLING IN LOWEST 5KFT TO RESULT IN
AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. KEPT RAIN AS PRIMARY PTYPE ATTM...BUT
DID INCLUDE MIX OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN
PUSHING TOWARD NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN VERY LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH RISK
IS NOT AS HIGH THERE SINCE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER CHANCE OF ICE
CRYSTALS BEING INTRODUCED FM ALOFT STAYS MAINLY OVER WI INTO WESTERN
UPR MICHIGAN. SFC TEMPS STAYING ABOVE 35F AND LACK OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIPITATION GREATLY WILL LIMIT SNOW ACCUMS EVEN ON GRASS OR
ELEVATED OBJECTS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
SAT...THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT WITH THE DIVIDED MID LEVEL LOW
AND TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY WOBBLING TO THE EAST BRINGING AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR MAINLY THROUGH WEST AND SOUTH
UPPER MI. THIS FORCING WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF LIGHT PCPN THROUGH
THE CWA DURING THE MORNING. IN ADDITION...CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW
WITH DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -4C WILL
ALSO PRODUCE LAKE ENHANCED PCPN FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY NW WINDS.
1000-850 THICKNESS VALUES NEAR 1310M AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
AROUND 2500 FT OVER THE WEST COULD ALLOW SOME SNOW TO MIX IN OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
SAT NIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PIVOTS OVER NRN ONTARIO AND THE
CNTRL LAKES WITH THE QVECTOR CONV WEAKENING...BACKING LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL SHIFT THE HEAVIER LAKE ENHANCED PCPN INTO TO AREAS
FAVORED BY WNW TO W WINDS SUCH AS THE KEWEENAW AND LOCATIONS FROM
MUNISING EASTWARD. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL COOLING WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR A MIX OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NW.
SUN...WEAK SHRTWVS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL LOW LINGERING OVER NRN ONTARIO...WEST OF
JAMES BAY. WITH 850 MB TEMPS ALSO REMAINING NEAR -3C...SOME LAKE
ENHANCED PCPN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE KEWEENAW AND THE FAR NE CWA
THAT ARE FAVORED BY W WINDS.
MON-THU...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS THE PERSISTENT MID LEVEL LOW
AGAIN WOBBLES BACKING TOWARD THE NRN LAKES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN FROM MON NIGHT INTO TUE. ENOUGH
COLD AIR WILL ALSO BE DRAWN INTO THE AREA FOR A MIX WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW AGAIN OVER THE WEST. THE PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
TOWARD ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE NRN CONUS. SO...DRIER WEATHER WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND SHOULD TAKE OVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
PRIMARILY USED HRRR AND NAM MODELS FOR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH
CIGS REDUCING TO IFR/LIFR AS MOIST AIR RIDES UP THE TERRAIN OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR. DO EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS /POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW AT CMX
AND IWD/...BUT INTENSITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES
SIGNIFICANTLY. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS SATURDAY MORNING AS
LOW LEVEL MIXING OCCURS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
WINDS VARIABLE LESS THAN 20 KTS OVER THE LAKE TO START THE DAY WITH
SFC LOW OVERHEAD...BUT ONCE THE LOW REACHES NORTHEAST SHORE OF LK
SUPERIOR THIS AFTN...EXPECT INCREASING WEST WINDS OVER SOUTH HALF OF
LK SUPERIOR. APPEARS THAT ZONE OF STRONGER WEST WINDS WITH WINDS TO
GALES WILL DEVELOP MAINLY IN THE VCNTY OF KEWEENAW AND STANNARD ROCK
AND DOWNTREAM OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR.
SHIPPING LANE OVER EAST LK SUPERIOR WOULD BE AFFECTED. HAVE ISSUED
GALE WARNINGS OVER CNTRL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF LK SUPERIOR...FIRST
FOR THESE STRONG WEST WINDS THEN FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ONLY LOW-END GALES LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
THOUGH. BEST CHANCE OF 35-40 KTS WOULD BE FM NCNTRL LK SUPERIOR
TOWARD STANNARD ROCK AND OFFSHORE OF MUNISING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BLO GALES SATURDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS WILL
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING TOWARD UPPER LAKES ON TUESDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ264>266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
142 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MICHIGAN TODAY WILL USHER IN VERY
FALL LIKE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. COLD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S... FOLLOWED BY LOWER 50S FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NEXT WEEK AND RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES IN THE LOWER 60S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
DECIDED TO GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES.
MUSKEGON GLERL SHOWED GUSTS OF 45 KNOTS WITH THE MOST RECENT
OBSERVATION...CLOSE TO WHAT THE FSL RUC WAS SHOWING. THIS MODEL
SHOWS SUCH WINDS PUSHING INLAND FOR THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES. I
SUSPECT THE MODEL MAY BE HIGH...BUT WITH LEAVES ON THE TREES AND
THE LIKELIHOOD OF GREATER THAN 45 MPH WINDS OVER THE LAND...WE
SHOULD SEE SOME POWER OUTAGES. THIS LOOKS TO BE A SHORT DURATION
EVENT...MAINLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...BUT THE ADVISORY CRITERIA ONLY FOR THIS
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
THE MAIN ISSUE THIS MORNING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AS HEAVY SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC
COLD FRONT. DUAL POL RADAR PRECIP ESTIMATES INDICATE SWATHS OF
HEAVIER RAIN IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED... AND EVEN
A SWATH OF GREATER THAN TWO INCHES BETWEEN AZO AND BTL. SHOULD HEAVY
SHOWERS REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREAS... WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE FLOOD
ADVISORIES FOR A FEW COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TODAY WITH PRECIP
RATES DECREASING CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SFC COLD
FRONT. ALSO FALLING TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LOW/COLD POOL TO IMPACT THE AREA MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT/CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
ISOLATED TSTMS AS LAKE INSTABILITY RESULTS IN A FEW HUNDRED JOULES
OF CAPE.
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS MODELS SHOW LESS MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE LESS COVERAGE/PERSISTENCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR AWAY FROM THE W/SW FLOW LAKE INFLUENCE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER
LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA TODAY WILL HOLD IN PLACE LIKELY THROUGH TUE
OF NEXT WEEK. WE WILL SEE THE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS BE REPLACED BY
INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND SOME LAKE EFFECT FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE
OF NEXT WEEK. SHORT WAVES RIDING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW WILL
BRING THESE INTERVALS OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. WE WILL SEE BREAKS IN
THE SHOWERS...SO IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME. THE COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH NEXT TUE NIGHT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WITH DRIER CONDITIONS WITH MORE SUNSHINE
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. THE UPPER LOW WILL
FINALLY MOVE OUT BY TUE NIGHT AS A STRONG ENOUGH WAVE MOVING AROUND
IT WILL HELP TO LIFT IT TO THE NE. WE WILL SEE UPPER RIDGING BUILD
IN PLACE AS THE STRONG LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA AND ANOTHER STRONG
LOW MOVES OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. WE WILL SEE A SOLID
SRLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVECT WARMER AIR IN ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO AROUND 70 BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
IMPACTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL
LARGELY REMAIN MVFR AS THE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION PERSIST. BRIEF IFR MAY ALSO OCCUR...BUT THE DURATION
IS NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SHOWS 40-45 KT NW WINDS AT 925 MB IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT THIS MORNING... SO WILL RUN WITH A GALE
WARNING WITH THE MORNING ISSUANCE OF THE NEARSHORE FORECAST. THE
WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS WEST WINDS CONTINUE
TO OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 35 KTS.
WATERSPOUTS A GOOD POSSIBILITY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT PER THE
WADE SZILAGYI /MET SVCS OF CANADA/ NOMOGRAM. WINDS DECREASE A TAD
AND EXTREME INSTABILITY EXPECTED WITH LK MI SFC TEMPS AROUND 17C
AND H8 TEMPS NEAR -4. CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTHS OF AT LEAST 10-15K
FT LIKELY PER FCST SNDGS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR A FEW COUNTIES THIS MORNING IF
HEAVIER SHOWERS REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREAS. OTHERWISE MOST AREAS
WILL SEE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN FROM THE SYSTEM PCPN AND THE LAKE
EFFECT RAINS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RIVERS WILL BE ABLE TO
HANDLE THIS RAIN AS IT OCCURS OVER A LONG TIME PERIOD.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ037-043-050-
056-064-071.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MEADE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
918 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MICHIGAN TODAY WILL USHER IN VERY
FALL LIKE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. COLD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S... FOLLOWED BY LOWER 50S FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NEXT WEEK AND RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES IN THE LOWER 60S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
DECIDED TO GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES.
MUSKEGON GLERL SHOWED GUSTS OF 45 KNOTS WITH THE MOST RECENT
OBSERVATION...CLOSE TO WHAT THE FSL RUC WAS SHOWING. THIS MODEL
SHOWS SUCH WINDS PUSHING INLAND FOR THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES. I
SUSPECT THE MODEL MAY BE HIGH...BUT WITH LEAVES ON THE TREES AND
THE LIKELIHOOD OF GREATER THAN 45 MPH WINDS OVER THE LAND...WE
SHOULD SEE SOME POWER OUTAGES. THIS LOOKS TO BE A SHORT DURATION
EVENT...MAINLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...BUT THE ADVISORY CRITERIA ONLY FOR THIS
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
THE MAIN ISSUE THIS MORNING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AS HEAVY SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC
COLD FRONT. DUAL POL RADAR PRECIP ESTIMATES INDICATE SWATHS OF
HEAVIER RAIN IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED... AND EVEN
A SWATH OF GREATER THAN TWO INCHES BETWEEN AZO AND BTL. SHOULD HEAVY
SHOWERS REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREAS... WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE FLOOD
ADVISORIES FOR A FEW COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TODAY WITH PRECIP
RATES DECREASING CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SFC COLD
FRONT. ALSO FALLING TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LOW/COLD POOL TO IMPACT THE AREA MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT/CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
ISOLATED TSTMS AS LAKE INSTABILITY RESULTS IN A FEW HUNDRED JOULES
OF CAPE.
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS MODELS SHOW LESS MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE LESS COVERAGE/PERSISTENCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR AWAY FROM THE W/SW FLOW LAKE INFLUENCE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER
LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA TODAY WILL HOLD IN PLACE LIKELY THROUGH TUE
OF NEXT WEEK. WE WILL SEE THE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS BE REPLACED BY
INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND SOME LAKE EFFECT FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE
OF NEXT WEEK. SHORT WAVES RIDING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW WILL
BRING THESE INTERVALS OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. WE WILL SEE BREAKS IN
THE SHOWERS...SO IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME. THE COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH NEXT TUE NIGHT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WITH DRIER CONDITIONS WITH MORE SUNSHINE
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. THE UPPER LOW WILL
FINALLY MOVE OUT BY TUE NIGHT AS A STRONG ENOUGH WAVE MOVING AROUND
IT WILL HELP TO LIFT IT TO THE NE. WE WILL SEE UPPER RIDGING BUILD
IN PLACE AS THE STRONG LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA AND ANOTHER STRONG
LOW MOVES OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. WE WILL SEE A SOLID
SRLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVECT WARMER AIR IN ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO AROUND 70 BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. A FEW TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH 14Z EAST OF
HIGHWAY 131 INCLUDING LAN AND JXN.
AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD BE OVER WITH BY 18Z WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SFC COLD FRONT ALTHOUGH NUMEROUS MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY AFTER FROPA THIS MORNING AND
BECOME STRONG...WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS THIS AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS
SHOULD RELAX AFTER 00Z TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LK MI
SHORELINE INCLUDING MKG.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SHOWS 40-45 KT NW WINDS AT 925 MB IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT THIS MORNING... SO WILL RUN WITH A GALE
WARNING WITH THE MORNING ISSUANCE OF THE NEARSHORE FORECAST. THE
WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS WEST WINDS CONTINUE
TO OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 35 KTS.
WATERSPOUTS A GOOD POSSIBILITY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT PER THE
WADE SZILAGYI /MET SVCS OF CANADA/ NOMOGRAM. WINDS DECREASE A TAD
AND EXTREME INSTABILITY EXPECTED WITH LK MI SFC TEMPS AROUND 17C
AND H8 TEMPS NEAR -4. CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTHS OF AT LEAST 10-15K
FT LIKELY PER FCST SNDGS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR A FEW COUNTIES THIS MORNING IF
HEAVIER SHOWERS REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREAS. OTHERWISE MOST AREAS
WILL SEE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN FROM THE SYSTEM PCPN AND THE LAKE
EFFECT RAINS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RIVERS WILL BE ABLE TO
HANDLE THIS RAIN AS IT OCCURS OVER A LONG TIME PERIOD.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ037-043-050-
056-064-071.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MEADE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
752 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MICHIGAN TODAY WILL USHER IN VERY
FALL LIKE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. COLD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S... FOLLOWED BY LOWER 50S FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NEXT WEEK AND RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES IN THE LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
THE MAIN ISSUE THIS MORNING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AS HEAVY SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC
COLD FRONT. DUAL POL RADAR PRECIP ESTIMATES INDICATE SWATHS OF
HEAVIER RAIN IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED... AND EVEN
A SWATH OF GREATER THAN TWO INCHES BETWEEN AZO AND BTL. SHOULD HEAVY
SHOWERS REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREAS... WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE FLOOD
ADVISORIES FOR A FEW COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TODAY WITH PRECIP
RATES DECREASING CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SFC COLD
FRONT. ALSO FALLING TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LOW/COLD POOL TO IMPACT THE AREA MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT/CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
ISOLATED TSTMS AS LAKE INSTABILITY RESULTS IN A FEW HUNDRED JOULES
OF CAPE.
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS MODELS SHOW LESS MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE LESS COVERAGE/PERSISTENCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR AWAY FROM THE W/SW FLOW LAKE INFLUENCE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER
LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA TODAY WILL HOLD IN PLACE LIKELY THROUGH TUE
OF NEXT WEEK. WE WILL SEE THE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS BE REPLACED BY
INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND SOME LAKE EFFECT FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE
OF NEXT WEEK. SHORT WAVES RIDING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW WILL
BRING THESE INTERVALS OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. WE WILL SEE BREAKS IN
THE SHOWERS...SO IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME. THE COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH NEXT TUE NIGHT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WITH DRIER CONDITIONS WITH MORE SUNSHINE
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. THE UPPER LOW WILL
FINALLY MOVE OUT BY TUE NIGHT AS A STRONG ENOUGH WAVE MOVING AROUND
IT WILL HELP TO LIFT IT TO THE NE. WE WILL SEE UPPER RIDGING BUILD
IN PLACE AS THE STRONG LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA AND ANOTHER STRONG
LOW MOVES OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. WE WILL SEE A SOLID
SRLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVECT WARMER AIR IN ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO AROUND 70 BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. A FEW TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH 14Z EAST OF
HIGHWAY 131 INCLUDING LAN AND JXN.
AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD BE OVER WITH BY 18Z WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SFC COLD FRONT ALTHOUGH NUMEROUS MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY AFTER FROPA THIS MORNING AND
BECOME STRONG...WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS THIS AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS
SHOULD RELAX AFTER 00Z TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LK MI
SHORELINE INCLUDING MKG.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SHOWS 40-45 KT NW WINDS AT 925 MB IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT THIS MORNING... SO WILL RUN WITH A GALE
WARNING WITH THE MORNING ISSUANCE OF THE NEARSHORE FORECAST. THE
WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS WEST WINDS CONTINUE
TO OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 35 KTS.
WATERSPOUTS A GOOD POSSIBILTY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT PER THE
WADE SZILAGYI /MET SVCS OF CANADA/ NOMOGRAM. WINDS DECREASE A TAD
AND EXTREME INSTABILITY EXPECTED WITH LK MI SFC TEMPS AROUND 17C
AND H8 TEMPS NEAR -4. CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTHS OF AT LEAST 10-15K
FT LIKELY PER FCST SNDGS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR A FEW COUNTIES THIS MORNING IF
HEAVIER SHOWERS REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREAS. OTHERWISE MOST AREAS
WILL SEE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN FROM THE SYSTEM PCPN AND THE LAKE
EFFECT RAINS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RIVERS WILL BE ABLE TO
HANDLE THIS RAIN AS IT OCCURS OVER A LONG TIME PERIOD.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MEADE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MICHIGAN TODAY WILL USHER IN VERY
FALL LIKE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. COLD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S... FOLLOWED BY LOWER 50S FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NEXT WEEK AND RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES IN THE LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
THE MAIN ISSUE THIS MORNING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AS HEAVY SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC
COLD FRONT. DUAL POL RADAR PRECIP ESTIMATES INDICATE SWATHS OF
HEAVIER RAIN IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED... AND EVEN
A SWATH OF GREATER THAN TWO INCHES BETWEEN AZO AND BTL. SHOULD HEAVY
SHOWERS REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREAS... WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE FLOOD
ADVISORIES FOR A FEW COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TODAY WITH PRECIP
RATES DECREASING CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SFC COLD
FRONT. ALSO FALLING TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LOW/COLD POOL TO IMPACT THE AREA MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT/CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
ISOLATED TSTMS AS LAKE INSTABILITY RESULTS IN A FEW HUNDRED JOULES
OF CAPE.
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS MODELS SHOW LESS MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE LESS COVERAGE/PERSISTENCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR AWAY FROM THE W/SW FLOW LAKE INFLUENCE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER
LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA TODAY WILL HOLD IN PLACE LIKELY THROUGH TUE
OF NEXT WEEK. WE WILL SEE THE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS BE REPLACED BY
INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND SOME LAKE EFFECT FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE
OF NEXT WEEK. SHORT WAVES RIDING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW WILL
BRING THESE INTERVALS OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. WE WILL SEE BREAKS IN
THE SHOWERS...SO IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME. THE COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH NEXT TUE NIGHT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WITH DRIER CONDITIONS WITH MORE SUNSHINE
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. THE UPPER LOW WILL
FINALLY MOVE OUT BY TUE NIGHT AS A STRONG ENOUGH WAVE MOVING AROUND
IT WILL HELP TO LIFT IT TO THE NE. WE WILL SEE UPPER RIDGING BUILD
IN PLACE AS THE STRONG LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA AND ANOTHER STRONG
LOW MOVES OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. WE WILL SEE A SOLID
SRLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVECT WARMER AIR IN ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO AROUND 70 BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
RAIN TRENDS AND ASSOCIATED CIG AND VSBY TRENDS WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS WITH THIS SET OF FCSTS. RAIN HAS MOVED IN OVER MOST OF THE
TERMINALS AS OF 06Z THIS MORNING. KJXN HAS ESCAPED MOST OF THE
RAIN THUS FAR. MORE RAIN WILL BE MOVING UP INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. SOME THUNDER
WILL BE EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BEGINNING AROUND 13Z OR SO AROUND KMKG AND SPREADING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. IFR WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
THEN START TO IMPROVE AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER
BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN AFTER 00Z TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING IN ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SHOWS 40-45 KT NW WINDS AT 925 MB IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT THIS MORNING... SO WILL RUN WITH A GALE
WARNING WITH THE MORNING ISSUANCE OF THE NEARSHORE FORECAST. THE
WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS WEST WINDS CONTINUE
TO OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 35 KTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR A FEW COUNTIES THIS MORNING IF
HEAVIER SHOWERS REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREAS. OTHERWISE MOST AREAS
WILL SEE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN FROM THE SYSTEM PCPN AND THE LAKE
EFFECT RAINS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RIVERS WILL BE ABLE TO
HANDLE THIS RAIN AS IT OCCURS OVER A LONG TIME PERIOD.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MEADE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1007 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.UPDATE...HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED FOR LATEST TRENDS AND
HIGHS ADJUSTED DOWN BY 1-2F DEGREES WITH CLOUD COVER LOOKING TO
PERSIST A LITTLE LONGER. STILL EXPECT FOR CLOUDS TO CLEAR BY LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTH OVER THE
REGION.
.DISCUSSION...THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WENT THROUGH LAST
NIGHT HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF REGION THIS MORNING WHILE
CONTINUING TO LOSE ITS VIGOR. SEVERAL CLOUD DECKS PERSIST HOWEVER
AND THIS IS KEEPING TEMP TRENDS DOWN SO FAR THIS MORNING. VISIBLE
SAT IMAGERY REVEALS MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER TOP OF LOW STRATUS
WITH A SHARP CLEARING EDGE ACROSS THE MS DELTA MARKING THE POSITION
OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, CAA CUMULUS AND STRATUS ARE DEVELOPING
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AS ENOUGH MOISTURE EXISTS WITHIN THE MIXING
BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS CLOUD EVOLUTION THROUGH THE DAY WILL MAKE FOR A
TRICKY HIGH TEMP FORECAST. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS 1-2F DEGREES ON
MORNING UPDATE AND WILL MONITOR CLOUD CLEARING TRENDS. HRRR HOLDS ON
TO LOWER CLOUD COVER THROUGH 2-3PM AND HIGH CLOUDS TILL AROUND 6PM
AND FEEL CURRENT GFSLAMP GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE TOO WARM BIASED. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE ACTUAL FRONT MOVES
THROUGH IN EAST MS AND WILL ONLY CARRY MINIMAL 15-20% POPS NOW
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ALL CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON
TO EARLY EVENING WITH CRYSTAL CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND SOME OF THE
COOLEST LOW TEMPS THUS FAR OF THE SEASON.
UPDATES ARE OUT AND AN UPDATED AVIATION CAN BE FOUND DIRECTLY BELOW.
/ALLEN/
&&
.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WAS NOTED JUST THROUGH GWO AT 14Z. THE
FRONT WILL SHIFT SE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. VFR CONDS AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WL FOLLOW THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN AND CIGS FROM VFR-IFR CAN BE EXPECTED. NO TSTMS ARE EXPECTED
BUT PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WL BE OBSERVED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL.
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /22/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND
IS APPROACHING THE ARKLAMISS. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
MORNING RESULTING IN QUICKLY DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES. THERE WILL BE
SOME CLEARING/MIXING BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND PRIOR TO THE
DEEPER COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TODAY. THAT WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S OVER MOST OF THE
ARKLAMISS TODAY.
OTHERWISE...THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COOL SNAP WILL BEGIN TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
SATURDAY WILL SEE SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS ONLY MANAGING TO GET INTO
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A VERY COOL
NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING WELL INTO THE 40S AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS. OVERALL... TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMATIC DAILY NORMALS. /EC/
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS HIGHS TOP OUT FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
REGION...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ENSUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING
IN SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE NEW WORK WEEK.
A WEAK FRONT WILL AGAIN BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE CWA MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN MOVES OUT OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...WITH QUIET BUT CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MORE RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO ENTER
THE FORECAST NEXT FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST
INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. /19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 81 49 71 43 / 21 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 83 48 70 39 / 41 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 82 44 72 42 / 16 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 85 54 73 43 / 43 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 81 47 70 45 / 21 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 80 46 71 45 / 3 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 79 48 68 42 / 7 0 0 0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
ALLEN/22/EC/19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1209 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 248 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
The ongoing thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and early
evening ahead of a deep layer trough and an approaching cold front.
As of 19Z the cold front was just entering the northwest portion of
the CWA and slowly advancing eastward. The severe threat, hail and
wind, is very limited for our CWA and located across our far
southern counties along and south of a warm front. The front has
made very little northward progress due to reinforced cool air from
the morning/early afternoon convection to its north and thus it is
not expected to move much this afternoon. By later this evening the
warm sector will be shunted east with the passage of the
aforementioned cold front with much of the deeper convection east of
the CWA. There will be a low chance for post-frontal showers
and isolated elevated thunderstorms overnight tonight, but that
activity should not amount to much...per the HRRR and current 88D trends.
Near sunrise tomorrow a secondary cold front quickly moves in and
through the CWA behind the departing upper level trough. It will be rather
breezy behind the front with northwest winds gusting to as high as
30 MPH advecting much cooler and drier air. There will also be a
low chance pops for widely scattered showers...very hit or
miss...and diurnally driven.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Any clouds lingering into Friday evening over central Missouri will
be fast to scatter out leaving clear skies overnight. This will set
the stage for one of the coldest nights of the season so far with
temperatures in the mid to upper 30s across much of the area. Some
guidance is bringing parts of northern Missouri down below freezing,
but this seems too cold since west winds should remain around 5 to 10
mph overnight. Coldest temperatures should be west of us, closer to
the low-level ridge axis. Could still see some patchy frost across
eastern KS into northern Missouri early Saturday morning particularly
in areas sheltered from a westerly wind.
This ridge axis will pass overhead on Saturday keeping temperatures
seasonably chilly with highs in the 50s. Southerly winds on the back
side of this feature will prevent Saturday night`s temperatures from
getting much below 40 degrees while Sunday sees a nice warm up into
the upper 60s and lower 70s.
On Monday a very weak wave will rotate into the area on the back side
of a large Great Lakes upper trough. Could see a few showers from
this feature but overall precipitation chances are only 30 percent or
so. Once this passes through, slow height rises will build into the
Plains and allow temperatures to warm into the middle and upper 70s
by Weds and Thurs.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
VFR conditions are expected through much of the period as skies have
cleared. The next upper wave will bring a mixed deck of low/mid
clouds between 13-18Z. A brief period of showers and MVFR ceilings
will be possible during the mid/late morning. Otherwise, northwest
winds will increase and become gusty around/after sunrise, before
relaxing during the late afternoon with skies gradually clearing.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Pietrycha
LONG TERM...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Blair
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
300 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE
MORNING EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
205 PM UPDATE...
SFC LOPRES SITTING NORTH OF LK MICHIGAN WITH CDFNT EXTNDG SWRD ALONG
THE IN/OH BORDER AND IS ON THE MV EAST. RAIN HAS DVLPD JUST AHD OF
SFC FNT AND HAS NOW MADE IT INTO WRN PA. CURRENT MVMNT HAS IT
EXPECTED TO MV INTO STEUBEN CNTY ARND 21Z. HOWEVER, LATEST HRRR IS
INDICATING PCPN ERODING AS IT HEADS EAST AND NOT SPREADING INTO WRN
SXNS UNTIL 00Z. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE A WET NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR
THE CWA AS SRLY FLOW FM THE GOM HAS WORKED ITS WAY NORTH WITH AN
AREA OF 1.5+ INCHES OF PW VALUES INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LKS.
EXPECT THAT THIS AREA OF MOISTURE WL MV QUICKLY THRU THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH MODERATE SHOWERS EXPECTED AT TIMES. CANNOT RULE OUT A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS K VALUES CLIMB ABV 30 HWVR MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
RMN PUNY BARELY CLIMBING TO 6 C/KM. THUS HV RMVD SLGT CHC THUNDER FM
THE GRIDS AS AM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH POTENTIAL.
THINK THAT WIDESPREAD RAIN WL BE IN AND OUT WITHIN A 3-HR PERIOD OF
TIME. BACK EDGE HAS MADE IT INTO ERN OHIO AND GIVEN SPEED OF SYSTEM
HV SPED UP TIMING ON LINE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS MVG INTO FINGER LKS
CNTYS BY MIDNIGHT AND OUT OF WRN CATS BY 06Z. LINGERING SHOWERS WL
RMN POSSIBLE BHND MAIN TROF THEREFORE HV RETAINED SCT-LKLY POPS THRU
MOST OF THE OVRNGT HRS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...
FROPA OCCURS SAT MRNG LVG COOL AIR IN ITS WAKE AS H8 TEMPS FALL
BLO 0C FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WL SET THE STAGE FOR LK EFFECT
SHOWERS, HWVR WITH FLOW BEING FM THE SW THRU THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM WL LKLY SEE ONLY CLDS SKIRTING THRU NRN ZONES. TEMPS WL RMN
STEADY OR FALL DRG THE DAY ON SATURDAY IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH EARLY HIGHS IN THE U50S/NR 60 THEN FALLING DRG THE DAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR NY CNTYS.
IF SKIES CAN CLR OUT SAT NGT, EXPECT MINS TO DIP INTO THE M30S.
HWVR CURRENT GROWING AREAS (FINGER LKS/WYOMING AND LACKAWANNA
VLYS) WL LKLY RMN IN THE U30S TO PREVENT ANY FROST SUN MRNG. THIS WILL
ALL DEPEND ON CLDS THO.
EXPECT TEMPS THRU THE END OF THE SHORT TERM TO APPCH SEASONAL
VALUES AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM DIVING SOUTH THRU CANADA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
3 PM FRI UPDATE... OVERALL...AN UNSETTLED PD IS IN STORE...AS A
DEEP ERN CANADIAN/CONUS TROUGH ONLY SLOWLY RELAXES ITS GRIP NEXT
WEEK.
ONE S/WV ROTATING ARND THE SERN QUADRANT OF THE NRN GREAT
LAKES UPR LOW WILL BRING A GOOD CHC OF SHWRS TUE INTO WED...WITH A
SFC FRNT ULTIMATELY SWEEPING THIS PCPN OFF THE COAST BY WED NGT.
AFTER A PROBABLE LULL ON THU WITH BRIEF S/WV RIDGING ALOFT...THE
NEXT SIG MID-LVL WV...ALG WITH A DVLPG E-W FRNTL ZN...LOOKS TO
IMPACT NY/PA TWDS THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A RENEWED CHC OF SHWRS.
TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR A BIT ABV CLIMO FOR EARLY OCT...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRI UPDATE... LWR CLDS CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY ERODE EARLY THIS
AFTN...AND WE SHOULD EVOLVE TO A SCT-BKN CU FIELD AS THE AFTN
WEARS ON. WE HAVE A MENTION OF LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT
KBGM/KAVP THROUGH 20-21Z...BUT OTHER THAN THAT...WE SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDS INTO THIS EVE.
WE`RE EXPECTING RAIN TO MOVE IN FROM W TO E LTR THIS EVE (ONSET
TIMES OF 02-04Z)...GENERALLY ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR RESTRICTIONS. THE
FRONTAL RAIN BAND LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY NARROW...SO WE ONLY
ANTICIPATE STEADIER PCPN TO LAST 4-5 HRS IN ANY ONE SPOT.
THUS...WE BRING MORE PROMINENT SHWRS OUT OF THE AREA FROM
08-10Z...BUT WITH MVFR CIGS LASTING A BIT LONGER.
ONCE THE MAIN COLD FRNT SLICES THROUGH THE RGN SAT MRNG
(13-15Z)...WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO UNRESTRICTED CONDS.
GUSTY SE SFC WINDS THROUGH THIS EVE...WILL TAPER DOWN A BIT LTR
TNT INTO EARLY SAT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE W POST-FROPA AFTER
13-15Z SAT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NGT TO MON...MAINLY VFR.
MON NGT INTO WED...SHRA WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY
TUE/TUE NGT.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
244 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE
MORNING EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
205 PM UPDATE...
SFC LOPRES SITTING NORTH OF LK MICHIGAN WITH CDFNT EXTNDG SWRD ALONG
THE IN/OH BORDER AND IS ON THE MV EAST. RAIN HAS DVLPD JUST AHD OF
SFC FNT AND HAS NOW MADE IT INTO WRN PA. CURRENT MVMNT HAS IT
EXPECTED TO MV INTO STEUBEN CNTY ARND 21Z. HOWEVER, LATEST HRRR IS
INDICATING PCPN ERODING AS IT HEADS EAST AND NOT SPREADING INTO WRN
SXNS UNTIL 00Z. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE A WET NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR
THE CWA AS SRLY FLOW FM THE GOM HAS WORKED ITS WAY NORTH WITH AN
AREA OF 1.5+ INCHES OF PW VALUES INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LKS.
EXPECT THAT THIS AREA OF MOISTURE WL MV QUICKLY THRU THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH MODERATE SHOWERS EXPECTED AT TIMES. CANNOT RULE OUT A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS K VALUES CLIMB ABV 30 HWVR MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
RMN PUNY BARELY CLIMBING TO 6 C/KM. THUS HV RMVD SLGT CHC THUNDER FM
THE GRIDS AS AM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH POTENTIAL.
THINK THAT WIDESPREAD RAIN WL BE IN AND OUT WITHIN A 3-HR PERIOD OF
TIME. BACK EDGE HAS MADE IT INTO ERN OHIO AND GIVEN SPEED OF SYSTEM
HV SPED UP TIMING ON LINE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS MVG INTO FINGER LKS
CNTYS BY MIDNIGHT AND OUT OF WRN CATS BY 06Z. LINGERING SHOWERS WL
RMN POSSIBLE BHND MAIN TROF THEREFORE HV RETAINED SCT-LKLY POPS THRU
MOST OF THE OVRNGT HRS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...
FROPA OCCURS SAT MRNG LVG COOL AIR IN ITS WAKE AS H8 TEMPS FALL
BLO 0C FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WL SET THE STAGE FOR LK EFFECT
SHOWERS, HWVR WITH FLOW BEING FM THE SW THRU THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM WL LKLY SEE ONLY CLDS SKIRTING THRU NRN ZONES. TEMPS WL RMN
STEADY OR FALL DRG THE DAY ON SATURDAY IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH EARLY HIGHS IN THE U50S/NR 60 THEN FALLING DRG THE DAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR NY CNTYS.
IF SKIES CAN CLR OUT SAT NGT, EXPECT MINS TO DIP INTO THE M30S.
HWVR CURRENT GROWING AREAS (FINGER LKS/WYOMING AND LACKAWANNA
VLYS) WL LKLY RMN IN THE U30S TO PREVENT ANY FROST SUN MRNG. THIS WILL
ALL DEPEND ON CLDS THO.
EXPECT TEMPS THRU THE END OF THE SHORT TERM TO APPCH SEASONAL
VALUES AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM DIVING SOUTH THRU CANADA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
310 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
BIG PICTURE ALREADY DESCRIBED BELOW. TUE NIGHT-WED REMAINS OUR
BEST SHOT AT RAINFALL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A DEEP TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THAT IS FIRST
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS NOW, WILL STILL HAVE AN IMPACT
ON OUR WEATHER NEXT WEEK! WITHIN THIS TROF ANOTHER CUT OFF WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, INCREASING RAIN OUR CHANCES FOR RAIN
BY LATE TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROF WE WILL BE ON THE FAR EASTERN
FRINGES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR TO JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS (HIGHS MID
TO UPPER 60S).
THE MAIN THREAT FOR RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS A CUT OFF LOW MENTIONED ABOVE MOVES OUR WAY. WITH A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW, A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN IS AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING
THIS PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRI UPDATE... LWR CLDS CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY ERODE EARLY THIS
AFTN...AND WE SHOULD EVOLVE TO A SCT-BKN CU FIELD AS THE AFTN
WEARS ON. WE HAVE A MENTION OF LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT
KBGM/KAVP THROUGH 20-21Z...BUT OTHER THAN THAT...WE SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDS INTO THIS EVE.
WE`RE EXPECTING RAIN TO MOVE IN FROM W TO E LTR THIS EVE (ONSET
TIMES OF 02-04Z)...GENERALLY ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR RESTRICTIONS. THE
FRONTAL RAIN BAND LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY NARROW...SO WE ONLY
ANTICIPATE STEADIER PCPN TO LAST 4-5 HRS IN ANY ONE SPOT.
THUS...WE BRING MORE PROMINENT SHWRS OUT OF THE AREA FROM
08-10Z...BUT WITH MVFR CIGS LASTING A BIT LONGER.
ONCE THE MAIN COLD FRNT SLICES THROUGH THE RGN SAT MRNG
(13-15Z)...WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO UNRESTRICTED CONDS.
GUSTY SE SFC WINDS THROUGH THIS EVE...WILL TAPER DOWN A BIT LTR
TNT INTO EARLY SAT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE W POST-FROPA AFTER
13-15Z SAT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NGT TO MON...MAINLY VFR.
MON NGT INTO WED...SHRA WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY
TUE/TUE NGT.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...HEDEN/MDP
AVIATION...MLJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
208 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT, BRINGING RAIN
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TO NY AND PA. MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE
50S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
205 PM UPDATE...
SFC LOPRES SITTING NORTH OF LK MICHIGAN WITH CDFNT EXTNDG SWRD ALONG
THE IN/OH BORDER AND IS ON THE MV EAST. RAIN HAS DVLPD JUST AHD OF
SFC FNT AND HAS NOW MADE IT INTO WRN PA. CURRENT MVMNT HAS IT
EXPECTED TO MV INTO STEUBEN CNTY ARND 21Z. HOWEVER, LATEST HRRR IS
INDICATING PCPN ERODING AS IT HEADS EAST AND NOT SPREADING INTO WRN
SXNS UNTIL 00Z. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE A WET NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR
THE CWA AS SRLY FLOW FM THE GOM HAS WORKED ITS WAY NORTH WITH AN
AREA OF 1.5+ INCHES OF PW VALUES INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LKS.
EXPECT THAT THIS AREA OF MOISTURE WL MV QUICKLY THRU THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH MODERATE SHOWERS EXPECTED AT TIMES. CANNOT RULE OUT A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS K VALUES CLIMB ABV 30 HWVR MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
RMN PUNY BARELY CLIMBING TO 6 C/KM. THUS HV RMVD SLGT CHC THUNDER FM
THE GRIDS AS AM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH POTENTIAL.
THINK THAT WIDESPREAD RAIN WL BE IN AND OUT WITHIN A 3-HR PERIOD OF
TIME. BACK EDGE HAS MADE IT INTO ERN OHIO AND GIVEN SPEED OF SYSTEM
HV SPED UP TIMING ON LINE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS MVG INTO FINGER LKS
CNTYS BY MIDNIGHT AND OUT OF WRN CATS BY 06Z. LINGERING SHOWERS WL
RMN POSSIBLE BHND MAIN TROF THEREFORE HV RETAINED SCT-LKLY POPS THRU
MOST OF THE OVRNGT HRS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
VIGOROUS CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT PWATS AROUND
1.50 INCHES INTO THE FA, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
POWERFUL JET WILL CREATE A HIGHLY SHEARED ATMOSPHERE. 0-6KM BULK
SHEARS ARE IN THE 50-60KT RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. SO EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS.
HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LAPSE
RATES ARE WEAK (MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY IN THE 5C-6C RANGE).
HOWEVER THERE IS JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT TO GENERATE
K-INDICES AROUND 30 LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, SO
CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON SATURDAY...925MB TEMPS FALL FROM 12-14C
TO AROUND 9C BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFOR EXPECT A NON-
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND WITH MOST AREAS SEEING MAX TEMPS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.
DRIER AIR FOLLOWS ON SUNDAY, BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN FA GIVEN AMPLE LAKE-INDUCED
INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID OR UPPER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
310 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
BIG PICTURE ALREADY DESCRIBED BELOW. TUE NIGHT-WED REMAINS OUR
BEST SHOT AT RAINFALL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A DEEP TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THAT IS FIRST
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS NOW, WILL STILL HAVE AN IMPACT
ON OUR WEATHER NEXT WEEK! WITHIN THIS TROF ANOTHER CUT OFF WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, INCREASING RAIN OUR CHANCES FOR RAIN
BY LATE TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROF WE WILL BE ON THE FAR EASTERN
FRINGES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR TO JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS (HIGHS MID
TO UPPER 60S).
THE MAIN THREAT FOR RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS A CUT OFF LOW MENTIONED ABOVE MOVES OUR WAY. WITH A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW, A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN IS AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING
THIS PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRI UPDATE... LWR CLDS CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY ERODE EARLY THIS
AFTN...AND WE SHOULD EVOLVE TO A SCT-BKN CU FIELD AS THE AFTN
WEARS ON. WE HAVE A MENTION OF LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT
KBGM/KAVP THROUGH 20-21Z...BUT OTHER THAN THAT...WE SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDS INTO THIS EVE.
WE`RE EXPECTING RAIN TO MOVE IN FROM W TO E LTR THIS EVE (ONSET
TIMES OF 02-04Z)...GENERALLY ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR RESTRICTIONS. THE
FRONTAL RAIN BAND LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY NARROW...SO WE ONLY
ANTICIPATE STEADIER PCPN TO LAST 4-5 HRS IN ANY ONE SPOT.
THUS...WE BRING MORE PROMINENT SHWRS OUT OF THE AREA FROM
08-10Z...BUT WITH MVFR CIGS LASTING A BIT LONGER.
ONCE THE MAIN COLD FRNT SLICES THROUGH THE RGN SAT MRNG
(13-15Z)...WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO UNRESTRICTED CONDS.
GUSTY SE SFC WINDS THROUGH THIS EVE...WILL TAPER DOWN A BIT LTR
TNT INTO EARLY SAT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE W POST-FROPA AFTER
13-15Z SAT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NGT TO MON...MAINLY VFR.
MON NGT INTO WED...SHRA WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY
TUE/TUE NGT.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...HEDEN/MDP
AVIATION...MLJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
612 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE
WEEKEND AND WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM FRIDAY...DENSE FOG IS BECOMING WIDESPREAD AND AS A RESULT
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
VSBYS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 13Z. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS
ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST AS THE AIR-MASS
TRANSITIONS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. IN THE MEANTIME...THERE IS
SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE ONE SLOW MOVING SHOWER PLAGUING
THE NEW HANOVER COUNTY COASTLINE HAS PRODUCED IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL
TOTALS ALONG THE WATERWAY. PROFILES INDICATE THAT MOISTURE WILL BE
DEEPEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE PLUME TRANSITIONS QUICKLY WEST TO EAST. SUFFICIENT UVVS WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTS LIKELY
POPS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDING DOWN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND CAPE 1000 J/KG OR
LESS AVAILABLE FOR STORMS TO WORK WITH THUS CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
ANY TSTMS WILL REMAIN SUB-SEVERE AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. MAV/MET
NUMBERS IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE 82-86 RANGE MOST
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WARM FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO REMAIN A FEW CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...ESSENTIALLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA UNDER A DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. IT
APPEARS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST WITH LOWER 40S INLAND AND
NEAR 50 RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
ACROSS THE BOARD. DID NOT GO QUITE AS LOW AS THE NUMBERS FOR SUNDAY
AM VIA A LITTLE RESIDUAL MIXING. MONDAY MORNING READINGS INCREASE
ABOUT THREE DEGREES. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE A GOOD TEN DEGREES COOLER
AS THERE IS A DELAY IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY. NO POPS AND
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD BEYOND THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS
ALONG THE COAST WHEN THE BOUNDARY IS MOVING OFFSHORE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH
THE PERIOD BUT NOT BEFORE A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE PUSHES ANOTHER FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST NOW HAS
SLIGHT TO VERY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE
TO TIMING ISSUES AND CONSIDERING THIS IS A WEAKER SYSTEM AND THE
FACT SOME GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING ANY QPF. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
IN LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE
TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE
50S TO NEAR 60.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...KILM MAY SEE AN ISOLD SHOWERS AND SCT-V-BKN STRATO-
CUMULUS. STRATO-CUMULUS IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KCRE KMYR AND KLBT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING. OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVERHEAD PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE 12Z.
KLBT WILL LIKELY BE THE FIRST SITE TO DROP BELOW VFR...FOLLOWED BY
KFLO. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPO IFR/LIFR VSBYS WILL BE AT KLBT
FROM 09-12Z. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED TEMPO IFR FOR KFLO/KILM IN THE
10-12Z WINDOW...IN LINE WITH SOME OF THE LATEST HRRR RUNS. VSBYS AT
KCRE/KMYR MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DROP GIVEN THEIR PERSISTENT SOUTH
WINDS. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE CHOSEN TO REMOVE IFR FROM KCRE AND
KEEP BOTH TERMINALS MVFR THROUGH DAYBREAK.
TODAY WILL BE VFR WITH INCREASING LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE AFTN
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO
BECOME 8-12 KT DURING THE DAY. HAVE ADDED -SHRA BEGINNING AT 21Z
INLAND/00Z COASTAL SITES AS SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR...BUT
WAY TOO EARLY TO INCLUDE ANY RESTRICTIONS IN THE TAFS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY
SAT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THEN EXPECT VFR
SAT THROUGH TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM FRIDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT COASTAL
WATERS FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
YIELD SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL
INCREASE TO 4 TO 5 FT AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS EVENING. PLAN TO USE
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE AS THE SOUTHWEST WINDS
PEAK AND SHIFT TO THE WEST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALSO LIKELY THIS EVENING...THEN ENDING DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...THE MARINE COMMUNITY WILL GOOD CONDITIONS AT
LEAST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL STILL BE A
LITTLE ELEVATED SATURDAY FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AT 15-20 KNOTS. BY
SUNDAY THE WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND TEN KNOTS OR LESS WITH BASICALLY
A VARIABLE DIRECTION. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
EARLY...3-5 FEET DROPPING APPRECIABLY SUNDAY TO 2-3 FEET.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD BE
WEAKLY FORCED. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL BE REPRESENTATIVE OF
THE LIGHT WINDS WITH 1-2 FEET.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-
024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-
099-105-107-109.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR/SRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
358 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 325 AM FRI...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS LOCATED FROM
OFF ONSLOW BAY NORTHWEST TO NEAR ROCKY MOUNT EARLY THIS MORNING.
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM NEW RIVER INLET NORTHWEST TO KINSTON AND GREENVILLE.
GUIDANCE HINTED AT THIS FEATURE YESTERDAY BUT HAD A HARD TIME
TRUSTING IT BECAUSE LACKING SUPPORT ALOFT. LATEST NAM12 AND HRRR
HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THE LOCATION OF CURRENT WEAK
CONVECTION THOUGH THE NAM MOVES THE WEAK BOUNDARY EAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS WHILE THE HRRR DIES
OFF SHOWERS BY 12Z. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE HWY 17/70
LOCATIONS AND WEST THROUGH ROUGHLY 13Z...THOUGH LATER SHIFTS MAY
NEED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FARTHER EAST IF THE BOUNDARY
PERSISTS IN YIELDING LIGHT PRECIP.
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT WILL
SHIFT EAST OFF THE COAST TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SURFACE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SETUP THIS AFTERNOON HELPING
TO MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS AND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
WESTWARD MOVING SEA-BREEZE. LITTLE CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
TODAY AND WITH SKIES REMAINING PARTLY SUNNY...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND PERHAPS 1-2 DEGREES WARMER. MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE 82-84 F INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM FRI...THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT BRINGING WITH IT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS BUILDING TO AROUND 2 INCHES WITH
SW FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO THE MID LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY
POPS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IT APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH RATHER
QUICKLY SO QPF WILL BE LIMITED TO AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
MOST PLACES THOUGH COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
PRECIP AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPS MILD OVERNIGHT...WITH
LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE DUE TO SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT STILL SLATED TO MOVE OFFSHORE
AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY...TAKING ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. SKIES CLEAR QUICKLY DURING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH COOLER DRIER AIR SURGING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES TRICKY ON SATURDAY AND THINK WE WILL GET WELL INTO
THE 70S WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE LOWER 80S BEFORE THE STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. DRY AND MUCH COOLER FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES
WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONTINUING TO TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER EACH RUN...BUT WILL HOLD
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND TO MID 50S
COAST BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
STRUGGLE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 60S...BUT MODERATING INTO THE
70S FOR MONDAY. AFTER A DRY DAY TUESDAY...MODELS DIFFER ON THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK
WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A LOW CUTTING OFF TO OUR WEST OVER SOUTH
CAROLINA WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE UPPER FLOW MORE ZONAL
AND LESS MOISTURE. FOR CONSISTENCIES SAKE...KEPT POPS MINIMAL
UNDER BETTER TRENDS ARE DEVELOPED. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A
BIT THROUGH MID WEEK BUT STILL HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 AM FRI...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...THOUGH A WEAK BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER OAJ/ISO/PGV HAS
RESULTED IN SOME MVFR CEILINGS. THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST
SLOWLY THIS MORNING WITH MIXED MID CLOUDS EXPECTED. LIGHT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING AND MIXED CLOUDS HAVE HELPED INHIBIT MAXIMUM
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THUS FOG FORMATION HAS NOT DEVELOPED. DO
NOT ANTICIPATE FOG TO BE AN ISSUE PRIOR TO SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TODAY AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF THE NC COAST AND A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...MAY SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS WITH A FEW
SHOWERS DURING SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD CLEAR OUT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM FRI...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NE WINDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS 5-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS
ELEVATED 3-5 FT. OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS INDICATE
LIGHT ESE/SE WINDS WITH SEAS 2-3 FT. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY ALLOWING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO
SETUP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND WORK THEIR WAY NORTHEAST FOR
ALL OF EASTERN NC WATERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 3-5 FT NORTH AND 2-4 FT SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING THEN
BEGIN TO BUILD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE SOUTHWEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
TONIGHT MAINLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS...THOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS FOR THE SMALLER BAYS AND RIVER
TRIBUTARIES LATE TONIGHT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS PERFORMING BETTER THAN
WAVEWATCH SO WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE CLOSER TO SWAN.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE BY
MIDDAY SATURDAY...A GOOD NORTHWEST SURGE DEVELOPS BEHIND IT WITH
WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS REMAINING ROUGH WITH
LOCAL SWN MODEL SHOWING SEAS AS HIGH AS 7 TO 8 FEET THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH WINDS DIMINISHING...SEAS
SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE BY 18Z SUNDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ENSUE WITH WINDS AOB 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
259 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE
WEEKEND AND WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST AS THE AIR-MASS TRANSITIONS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. IN
THE MEANTIME...THERE IS SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE ONE SLOW
MOVING SHOWER PLAGUING THE NEW HANOVER COUNTY COASTLINE HAS PRODUCED
IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS ALONG THE WATERWAY. PROFILES INDICATE
THAT MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PLUME TRANSITIONS QUICKLY WEST TO EAST.
SUFFICIENT UVVS WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT SUPPORTS LIKELY POPS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING BEFORE
WINDING DOWN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ONLY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND CAPE 1000 J/KG OR LESS AVAILABLE FOR STORMS TO WORK
WITH THUS CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY TSTMS WILL REMAIN SUB-SEVERE
AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. MAV/MET NUMBERS IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS
IN THE 82-86 RANGE MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WARM FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REMAIN A FEW CATEGORIES ABOVE
NORMAL TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...ESSENTIALLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA UNDER A DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. IT APPEARS
SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST WITH LOWER 40S INLAND AND NEAR 50
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS THE
BOARD. DID NOT GO QUITE AS LOW AS THE NUMBERS FOR SUNDAY AM VIA A
LITTLE RESIDUAL MIXING. MONDAY MORNING READINGS INCREASE ABOUT THREE
DEGREES. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE A GOOD TEN DEGREES COOLER AS THERE IS
A DELAY IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY. NO POPS AND CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD BEYOND THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG THE COAST
WHEN THE BOUNDARY IS MOVING OFFSHORE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH THE
PERIOD BUT NOT BEFORE A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE PUSHES ANOTHER FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST NOW HAS
SLIGHT TO VERY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE
TO TIMING ISSUES AND CONSIDERING THIS IS A WEAKER SYSTEM AND THE
FACT SOME GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING ANY QPF. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
IN LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE
TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE
50S TO NEAR 60.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...KILM MAY SEE AN ISOLD SHOWERS AND SCT-V-BKN STRATO-
CUMULUS. STRATO-CUMULUS IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KCRE KMYR AND KLBT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING. OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVERHEAD PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE 12Z.
KLBT WILL LIKELY BE THE FIRST SITE TO DROP BELOW VFR...FOLLOWED BY
KFLO. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPO IFR/LIFR VSBYS WILL BE AT KLBT
FROM 09-12Z. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED TEMPO IFR FOR KFLO/KILM IN THE
10-12Z WINDOW...IN LINE WITH SOME OF THE LATEST HRRR RUNS. VSBYS AT
KCRE/KMYR MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DROP GIVEN THEIR PERSISTENT SOUTH
WINDS. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE CHOSEN TO REMOVE IFR FROM KCRE AND
KEEP BOTH TERMINALS MVFR THROUGH DAYBREAK.
TODAY WILL BE VFR WITH INCREASING LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE AFTN
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO
BECOME 8-12 KT DURING THE DAY. HAVE ADDED -SHRA BEGINNING AT 21Z
INLAND/00Z COASTAL SITES AS SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR...BUT
WAY TOO EARLY TO INCLUDE ANY RESTRICTIONS IN THE TAFS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY
SAT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THEN EXPECT VFR
SAT THROUGH TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...A SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
YIELD SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL
INCREASE TO 4 TO 5 FT AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS EVENING. PLAN TO USE
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE AS THE SOUTHWEST WINDS
PEAK AND SHIFT TO THE WEST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALSO LIKELY THIS EVENING...THEN ENDING DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...THE MARINE COMMUNITY WILL GOOD CONDITIONS AT
LEAST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL STILL BE A
LITTLE ELEVATED SATURDAY FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AT 15-20 KNOTS. BY
SUNDAY THE WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND TEN KNOTS OR LESS WITH BASICALLY
A VARIABLE DIRECTION. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
EARLY...3-5 FEET DROPPING APPRECIABLY SUNDAY TO 2-3 FEET.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD BE
WEAKLY FORCED. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL BE REPRESENTATIVE OF
THE LIGHT WINDS WITH 1-2 FEET.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
120 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE
WEEKEND AND WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1250 AM FRIDAY...INTRODUCED ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CAPE FEAR AREA. MOISTURE IS STILL LIMITED BUT RADAR MOSAICS SHOW
A WEAK BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD PENDER COUNTY. RADAR ALSO
SHOWS AN ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR SCOTTS HILL. COULD SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING AS A RESULT OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. RIDGE AXIS HAS MOVED OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND FLOW HAS
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY IN PLACES WHERE IT HAS NOT GONE COMPLETELY
CALM. ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS HAVE FADED WITH THE SETTING
SUN. EXPECT A DRY AND COOL OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S MOST PLACES. PATCHY FOG STILL A LIKELIHOOD THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AREA...POSSIBLY DENSE IN PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF THE REMNANT
SUBTROPICAL WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. A WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DISAPPEAR FROM THE WEATHER MAP BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS DEEP MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL CAROLINAS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS A VORT MAX WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH STILL BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.
MORNING SUNSHINE FRIDAY AND 850 MB TEMPS OF +14C TO +16C BOTH MEAN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ROCKET INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY BRING RAIN AND EMBEDDED
T-STORMS BY LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SC PEE DEE
REGION...SPREADING EASTWARD TO THE COAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
FORECAST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES LOOK INSUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...AND MY FORECAST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ONLY 0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES. THE PERIOD FOR THE
BEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 00-06Z
SATURDAY...COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST 300 MB DIFFLUENCE WHICH WILL
SUPPORT THE RAIN AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION.
AS OFTEN OCCURS LOCALLY THE FRONT WILL NOT COME THROUGH CLEANLY
IN ONE PIECE. THE SHIFT TO WESTERLY WINDS AND SOME DRIER LOW-LEVEL
AIR WILL ARRIVE AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. THE SIGNIFICANT
COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING WHEN LOW-
LEVEL WINDS FINALLY TURN NORTHWESTERLY AND 850 MB TEMPS START TO
FALL IN EARNEST...REACHING +3C TO +5C BY 12Z SUNDAY. WITH THIS
DELAYED COLD AIR ADVECTION I HAVE TRENDED FORECAST LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES...BETTER MATCHING THE
12Z NAM/GFS MODEL CONSENSUS. MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS REASONABLE
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S INLAND AND
LOWER 80S ON THE COAST...AND WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AROUND 50 ON
THE COAST AND DIPPING INTO THE 40S INLAND.
LOCATION FORECAST LOW SAT NIGHT LAST TIME IT WAS THIS COLD
WILMINGTON 50 MAY 20
FLORENCE 45 APRIL 17
N. MYRTLE BEACH 50 MAY 20
LUMBERTON 44 APRIL 24
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING SUN WILL TRANSITION TO
WEAK 5H RIDGING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE IS A
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY PRESENT IN THE FORECAST. RECENT MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS SHOW AMPLIFICATION OF MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WITH SOME SOLUTIONS SHOWING A CUTOFF DEVELOPING. EITHER
SOLUTION LEADS TO SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT...IN VARYING
STRENGTHS...OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS ALONG A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH
FROM CANADA.
THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TUE NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE CROSS THE CAROLINAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUMP DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION AND WEAK CONVERGENCE/LIFT WITH THE FRONT AND SOME WEAK MID
LEVEL SUPPORT DOES SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PRECIP LATE TUE
AND TUE NIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHC POP AT THIS
TIME GIVEN THAT CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE.
TEMPERATURES START OUT BELOW CLIMO WITH POTENTIAL FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING SUN NIGHT SETTING UP WHAT COULD BE THE COLDEST
MORNING OF THE EARLY FALL SEASON. TEMPS RETURN BACK TO CLIMO MON AND
HANG NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...KILM MAY SEE AN ISOLD SHOWERS AND SCT-V-BKN STRATO-
CUMULUS. STRATO-CUMULUS IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KCRE KMYR AND KLBT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING. OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVERHEAD PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE 12Z.
KLBT WILL LIKELY BE THE FIRST SITE TO DROP BELOW VFR...FOLLOWED BY
KFLO. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPO IFR/LIFR VSBYS WILL BE AT KLBT
FROM 09-12Z. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED TEMPO IFR FOR KFLO/KILM IN THE
10-12Z WINDOW...IN LINE WITH SOME OF THE LATEST HRRR RUNS. VSBYS AT
KCRE/KMYR MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DROP GIVEN THEIR PERSISTENT SOUTH
WINDS. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE CHOSEN TO REMOVE IFR FROM KCRE AND
KEEP BOTH TERMINALS MVFR THROUGH DAYBREAK.
TODAY WILL BE VFR WITH INCREASING LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE AFTN
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO
BECOME 8-12 KT DURING THE DAY. HAVE ADDED -SHRA BEGINNING AT 21Z
INLAND/00Z COASTAL SITES AS SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR...BUT
WAY TOO EARLY TO INCLUDE ANY RESTRICTIONS IN THE TAFS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY
SAT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THEN EXPECT VFR
SAT THROUGH TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...WINDS CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY
OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING AS THE RIDGE AXIS IS NOW WELL OFFSHORE
AND EAST OF THE WATERS. SEAS ARE RIGHT AROUND OR JUST BELOW 2 FT.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BE QUICKLY DISPLACED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT ZIPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. THIS FRONT
IS THE FIRST REALLY SIGNIFICANT ONE OF THE FALL SEASON AND SHOULD
REACH THE BEACHES OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15
KNOTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...TO 15-20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL
SHIFT WESTERLY AROUND 15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IT WILL
PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE COLD AIR TO BEGIN
BLEEDING SOUTH INTO THE REGION AS WINDS FINALLY TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT. SEAS INITIALLY ONLY 2 FEET
FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO 3-5 FT FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
BUILD NO HIGHER AS WIND DIRECTIONS VEER MORE OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LIMITING THE EFFECTIVE FETCH LENGTH.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SOLID 15 KT NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OVERHEAD LATE SUN WITH WINDS BACKING TO WEST-SOUTHWEST SUN NIGHT AND
MON. WEAK SURFACE HIGH LINGERS OFF THE COAST INTO TUE...MAINTAINING
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL RUN 2
FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR/SRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
128 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
OPTED TO THROW IN ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
WEST AND CENTRAL ND OVERNIGHT WITH VARIOUS OBSERVING SITES
REPORTING SNOW/RAIN/OR A MIX THE PAST FEW HOURS. NO ACCUMULATIONS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG ACROSS THE EAST...AND WILL PICK
UP ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND WEST AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY
MORNING. EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST
STARTING AT 15Z. NOT ALL OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL REACH
ADVISORY WINDS ON FRIDAY...SO LEFT A FEW COUNTIES OUT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1013 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD A WINTRY MIX IN LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS THROUGH
THE HAZEN AREA TONIGHT GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND SOCIAL MEDIA
REPORTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS ARE FOR THE STRATUS TO BEGIN TO CLEAR
FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE 06-08 UTC TIME FRAME.
THUS...SUB-FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS APPEAR LIKELY FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM BOWBELLS TO HETTINGER...AND A FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
WIND HIGHLIGHTS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE IF STRATUS CLEARS ACROSS THE
WEST...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO POSSIBLY FALL BELOW FREEZING.
THE 19-21 UTC RAP ITERATIONS AND THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS
SUGGEST THIS WOULD ONLY OCCUR RATHER LATE TONIGHT...AROUND 10-12
UTC...IF AT ALL. THUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT...AND
ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE FREEZE POTENTIAL AND ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTY FROM CLOUD COVER. WILL MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH
THE EVENING SHOULD A FREEZE WARNING BE NEEDED WITH LATER UPDATES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WINDS. COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED NEAR RUGBY IN THE
PAST HOUR. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE CARRINGTON AREA DOWN TO
LINTON AND ASHLEY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA YET THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA.
REGARDING WINDS...THE GREATEST FALL-RISE COUPLET THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DROP THROUGH THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE GIVING THEM A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS. DECENT FALL-RISE COUPLET AND THE STRONGEST
COLD ADVECTION THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH THE STRONGEST GRADIENT
WINDS OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIQUID THIS EVENING...EXCEPT
PERHAPS IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. AFTER
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S WEST TO MID 30S EAST...FRIDAY WILL REMAIN
COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A LULL IN
THE WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED
TO PICK UP AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE. THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN OVER
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AREAS TO THE WEST ARE EXPECTED TO SEE THE MIXING LAYER
LIFT INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A
POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE WIND ADVISORY INTO THE SOUTHWEST-SOUTH
CENTRAL DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS FREEZING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
CLIPPER. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR RAPID DIURNAL COOLING. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS
POINT IT SEEMS FAIRLY LIKELY THAT A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE IS IN
STORE FOR MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA. IF TRENDS CONTINUE A FREEZE
WATCH/WARNING IS LIKELY BY THIS TIME TOMORROW.
FURTHER INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING IN A FEW CLIPPERS. THE 12 UTC GFS/NAM/ECMWF HAVE ONE
ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THESE CLIPPERS.
BY MIDWEEK NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD TURN MORE ZONAL. THIS SHOULD
BRING A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE MID
60S RETURNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
VFR STRATUS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...SLOWLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT
/6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ002-010-018>020-032>035-040>047-
050.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-
021>023-025-036-037-048-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1141 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
NO FURTHER CHANGES NEEDED. WINDS IN MOST SPOTS NOT QUITE IN
ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT THEY WILL BE SOON AFTER 12Z. NOT WORTH
DROPPING AND THEN RE-ISSUING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1016 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
WATCHING THE HOURLY UPDATES FROM THE RAP MODEL AND HRRR MODEL AND
SEEING INCOMING 00Z NAM SEEM TO INDICATE A BIT WEAKER PRECIP BAND
AND A FARTHER SOUTHEAST SHIFT AND SLOWER TIMING ON WHEN 500 MB LOW
WILL CLOSE OFF. 00Z NAM INDICATES THIS WILL OCCUR LATER FRIDAY BUT
NEAR BRAINERD. HRRR/RAP HAVE MOSTLY LIGHT PRECIP THRU FRIDAY IN
NW/NCNTRL MN...AND TEMPS LOOK ABOUT 1-2 DEG WARMER AS WELL. ALL IN
ALL IT IS LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP AND NOT
ENOUGH INTENSITY TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN NW MN. I DO
THINK BEST CHANCE WOULD NOW BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM EASTERN
MARSHALL CO MN TOWARD BAGLEY-LAKE ITASCA THEN INTO THE OSAGE HILLS
BETWEEN PARK RAPIDS AND DETROIT LAKES. SO DID EDIT TEMPS/POPS/QPF
FOR THIS AND LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS TO MORE THE 1-2 INCH RANGE IN
THAT AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
BAND OF SHOWERS WITH FRONT MOVING THRU THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
ACTUAL MAIN STRONG WIND AND FALLING TEMPS LAG THE RAIN SHOWERS
ABOUT 1 HOUR. BY THE FAR THE BIGGEST REMAINS WHAT HAPPENS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND
UPPER LOW FORMS SOMEWHERE IN NRN MN. HOW MUCH PRECIP FORMS IN A
BAND WEST-NORTHWEST OF UPPER LOW FRIDAY....WHERE WILL IT BE AND
TEMPS IN BAND. HRRR/RAP ALL INDICATE IDEA OF PRECIP IN THE NRN RRV
TOWARD 12Z AND THEN WORKING SOUTHEAST...BUT SFC TEMPS APPEAR TO BE
MORE IN THE 36-37 RANGE. THE LAST 2 RAP MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN VERY
DISORGANIZED WITH PRECIP IN THE RRV AND NW MN AND HAS VERY LITTLE
QPF COMPARED TO SOME PAST RUNS. 18Z NAM/GFS TARGETS NOW
SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA-ROSEAU AREA. THUS ALL OVER THE PLACE AND
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW STILL IN WHERE/HOW MUCH ACCUMULATION WILL
OCCUR. DID TWEEK SNOW BAND AMOUNTS AND USED LATEST HRRR/RAP TEMPS
WHICH ARE A 1-2 DEG WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAD IN THE EARLIER GRIDS.
THUS END RESULT WAS A TIGHTENING OF THE SNOWFALL GRADIENT BUT
STILL INDICATE BEST BET OF 3 INCHES HALLOCK-THIEF RIVER-FOSSTON
WITH A SHARP EDGE EITHER SIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS COMPLEX UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NAM/GFS HAVE COME INTO PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM NORTHEAST ND INTO
NW MN...IN A NARROW BAND FROM NW TO SE. STRONG WINDS ARE NEARLY A
SURE BET ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY...WITH VERY COLD AIR
ADVECTING IN BEHIND FRONT.
FOR THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF VERY GUSTY WINDS RIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...PERHAPS
ENHANCED NEAR ANY STORMS. W/NW WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AND GUST
TO 40MPH ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL WITH
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE NORTH FROM
9Z-12Z...AND SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE LATE DEPENDING ON
WHERE HEAVIER SNOW BAND SETS UP. SNOW RATES WILL HAVE TO BE HIGH
FOR ACCUMULATIONS...BUT GIVEN THE FORCING THIS IS POSSIBLE.
ON FRIDAY...IT WILL BE VERY WINDY...COLD...WITH A BAND OF SNOW
LIKELY FROM EXTREME NE ND INTO NW MN...THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS
SNOW BAND IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...AND IF SNOW RATES WILL
OVERCOME VERY WARM GROUND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND NEAR A HCO-CKN-FSE LINE...AND GFK COULD BE
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF SOME LIGHT ACCUMS. ONE THING IS FOR
SURE...THERE WILL BE 50KT TO MIX AND IT WILL BE VERY WIND IN THE
VALLEY...AND IF HEAVY SNOW FALLS WITH THESE WINDS...VSBYS WILL BE
REDUCED. WE WILL ISSUE AN SPS AND HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL AND
HOLD ON ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WITH SOME QUESTIONS TO EXACT
PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL ACCUMULATING SNOW. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
SOMEONE TO GET UP TO 4 INCHES...SO WE WILL MONITOR CLOSELY. TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 30S WHERE IT DOES SNOW AND LOW 40S FAR
WEST.
FOR FRI NIGHT...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE EAST
THROUGH 3Z...AND TAPER OFF THEREAFTER. THERE COULD BE A WIDESPREAD
FREEZE IF SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS CALM DOWN...BUT IT WILL BE COLD
EITHER WAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
SATURDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH 500MB WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. AS A
RESULT THE CWFA WILL BE UNDER NORTHERLY CYCLONIC FLOW PROVIDING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT POP CHC THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY TO MONDAY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. THE 500MB
TROUGH WILL MEANDER OVER ONTARIO AND BRING ANOTHER VORT MAX...BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MAKING MONDAY THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY...500MB TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST WITH
NW FLOW BECOMING LESS NW AND MORE ZONAL ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO
MODERATE INTO THE 50S AND 60S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND 30S FOR LOWS.
SLIGHT TO CHC POPS WITH THIS FLOW REGIME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
GIVEN BY THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
IT WILL BE WINDY THRU THE PD WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 30 KTS AND
GUSTS TO 40 KTS AT TIMES MID MORNING FRIDAY THRU FRIDAY AFTN ESP
IN ERN ND/RRV. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS...THOUGH LOCAL IFR
CIGS PSBL AROUND BEMIDJI FRI AFTN. TVF/BJI WILL HAVE MOST OF THE
PRECIP IN THIS TAF PERIOD AND MENTIONED A RA/SN MIX FOR NOW FRIDAY
AT BOTH SITES.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ001>003-027-029-030-
040.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ004-005-007-
008-013>016-022-023-028-031.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
828 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS WEEKEND. FREEZE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...800 PM UPDATE...
CHALLENGING FORECAST TONIGHT REGARDING FROST FORMATION. SEEMS LIKE
THESE HAZARDS ARE NEVER CLEAR CUT AROUND THESE PARTS.
QUITE A BIT OF MID DECK OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL ONLY SERVE TO
COMPLICATE TEMPS OVERNIGHT. DO THINK AS THE TROF AXIS LIFTS...S
HALF OF CWA WILL CLEAR OUT...WITH SOME CLEARING GRADUALLY WORKING
N INTO SE OH AND N WV LATE. THERE IS ALSO A WIND CONUNDRUM AS BL
WINDS STAY UP MOST OF THE NIGHT ACROSS SE OH AND N WV. THIS WOULD
TEND TO LIMIT FROST TO PROTECTED VALLEYS EVEN IF THERE IS CLEARING
LATE TONIGHT. AFTER BEEFING UP SKY GRIDS FOR TONIGHT AND
INCORPORATING HRRR TEMPS AS A BASE TO CAPTURE THE HILLS AND
HOLLOWS...ROLLED MORE WITH PATCHY VS WIDESPREAD IN SE OH AND N WV.
WILL KEEP FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES AS IS EVEN THOUGH NOT SURE N
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS HIT FREEZING MARK IF CLOUDS STAY. CAA SHOULD HAVE
NO PROBLEM WITH THE N MOUNTAIN RIDGES THOUGH. TOYED WITH ADDING
COAL FIELDS AND KANAWHA VALLEY TO FROST ADV BUT LAMP GUIDANCE AND
MET GUIDANCE AT KHTS/KCRW STAY GENERALLY ABOVE 37F WITH A HINT OF
A SURFACE WIND WITH NO INVERSION IN WEAK CAA. THIS WOULD PROBABLY
MITIGATE COUNTY WIDE AVERAGE GROUND FROST. DID PUT IN SOME FROST
IN THIS AREA FOR THE VALLEYS AND OUTLYING AREAS AS WIND SHOULD
SLACKEN THERE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
GUSTY WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES
ARE AFFECTING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THE ISOLATED
SHOWERS DROPPING SOME GRAUPEL. WIND SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FLIRT WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT. THE DEGREE IN WHICH WINDS EASE TONIGHT IS THE MAIN
FACTOR AS TO WHETHER OR NOT WE WOULD SEE FROST TONIGHT. LITTLE
MARGIN FOR ERROR HERE. IF WINDS DIE DOWN TOO MUCH WE COULD EASILY
SEE WIDESPREAD FROST AND MAYBE ISOLATED FREEZING IN SOME
LOCATIONS...SO DECIDED TO HOIST A FROST ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE KANAWHA VALLEY WHICH MAY BENEFIT
FROM SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FROM THE MORE SCATTERED DECK OF
CLOUDS TODAY. WILL LET THE EVENING SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER ONTARIO THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH
WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS SCENARIO WILL
BRING IMPULSES OF ENERGY OVER OUR AREA AS SEEN IN H5 VORTICITY
CHARTS. THEREFORE...KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY
INCREASING INTO MONDAY. FROM THIS LOW...A SERIES OF STRONG IMPULSES
WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY...CROSSING TUESDAY. THEREFORE...KEPT
LOW CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...INCREASING TO
CHANCE AND LIKELY LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS BECOME GENTLE TO STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY BRINGING A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
USED A BLEND OF ALL BLEND MOS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER
OVER ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT AND START DRIFTING EAST INTO QUEBEC
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAKING SHORTWAVES TO TRACK FURTHER
NORTH...KEEPING THEIR INFLUENCE AWAY FROM OUR AREA BY MID WEEK.
THEREFORE...EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS BY MID WEEK.
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS OUT INTO
EASTERN CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE OH VALLEY THURSDAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT WILL SETTLE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN WV. THIS FRONT
COULD BRING LOW CHANCE FOR PCPN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
WENT WITH WPC TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE WINDS WILL SLACKEN OVERNIGHT BUT NOT DECOUPLE ACROSS N
TERMINALS. STUBBORN MID DECK WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO N AS THE UPPER
TROF LIFTS. THIS MAY KEEP BKN TO OVC VFR CIGS GOING FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT FOR N TERMINALS. VFR PREVAILS ON SUNDAY AS WELL WITH A
EARLY SCT TO BKN 4 TO 6 KFT STRATOCU DISSIPATING LATE AFTERNOON ON
WAA ALOFT. SW WINDS SURFACE AND ALOFT SUNDAY GENERALLY 8 TO 10 KTS
IN THE AFTERNOON AT THE SURFACE WITH PERHAPS SOME GUSTS 15 TO 20
KTS FOR A FEW HRS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 10/05/14
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ005-007>011-
016>020-028>037-039-040.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ038-046-047.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
076-083>087.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...30/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
146 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THEN ANOTHER TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COOLING OFF FASTER THAN FORECAST WITH THE RECENT RAIN IN LUCAS AND WOOD
COUNTIES. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS ACCORDINGLY. THE RAIN WILL COME
TO AN END OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN FREE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
STRAY SHOWER. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AMPLE MOISTURE UPSTREAM SHOULD LEND ITSELF TO A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
LATEST RAP AND NAM RUNS INDICATE CLEARING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...BUT THE CURRENT
SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO SUGGEST OTHERWISE WITH MID
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SO
THE SKY FORECAST LENDS ITSELF TO PERSISTENCE RATHER THAN MODEL
OUTPUT...AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS WELL. HOWEVER...THE
HIGHER POPS WILL BE IN THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THEN DECREASE EASTWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE PROBLEM IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD
EAST AND WILL THE THUNDERSTORMS BE WIDESPREAD OR JUST A CHANCE. WILL
SPREAD THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHAT QUICKLY EAST
ON FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A LITTLE QUICKER. AT THIS TIME
STILL KEPT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO A CHANCE. WE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
SHEAR AND THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH IF THE AIR MASS
BECAME UNSTABLE WE COULD HAVE SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THIS THREAT WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED.
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL END QUICKLY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE COULD BE A LITTLE LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE EVENING
ESPECIALLY WEST OF CLE AND AKRON.
AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THAT WILL MEAN SHOWERS LIKELY.
ON SATURDAY A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS AN UPPER TROF
MOVES THROUGH.
A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AS TROFS MOVE THROUGH.
WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH THE
UPPER TROF IN THE AREA. STARTING WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW BEGINS
TO PULL AWAY LEAVING THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION MORE ZONAL...THAT
IS ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND GFSENS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH
THIS TRANSITION AND BRINGS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND MAKING FOR ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY. WILL TAKE NOTE OF THIS...BUT CONTINUE
THE FORECAST IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE TROUGH SLOWLY PULLING
OUT. THAT WILL LEAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND FOR NOW KEEPING THURSDAY DRY. LOWS WILL
STICK IN THE 40S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AND BY
THURSDAY RETURN CLOSER TO NORMALS...WHICH THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TIMING OF THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING. IT SHOULD ARRIVE AT TOLEDO AND FINDLAY BY 11Z
TO 12Z TIME FRAME AND THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT BY
THE TIME IT REACHES EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THAT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY COULD OCCUR TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDER. STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS THE AREA IN A GENERAL AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AS COLD
FRONT SLIPS BY...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE AS WELL.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY NE OH/NW PA...PERHAPS
LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP
TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY START AS EARLY AS THE MORNING FOR
THE WESTERN BASIN WITH WINDS GETTING NEAR THE 20-25 KNOT MINIMUM.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT THAT WILL PASS DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WINDS AND CONDITIONS
ON THE LAKE WILL DETERIORATE AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR SEVERAL DAYS. A
GOOD PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL BRING WINDS UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND BY THEN A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS A CERTAINTY. THE LOW GETS HUNG UP ACROSS
CENTRAL ONTARIO/NORTHERN LAKES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE WSW GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY TIGHT
AND A PERIOD OF 20-30 KNOTS WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WINDS BECOME A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LOW WILL STILL LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1000 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE FALL THUS FAR WILL BE OVER PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN INTO MID
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLEARING AND WINDS ~5KTS HAVE UP NORTH HAVE INCREASED FROST
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTH. IN CONCERT WITH KBUF...WILL
ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR WARREN MCKEAN AND POTTER COUNTIES. IN
ADDITION...EXPECT FREEZING TEMPS OVER SOMERSET COUNTY AS PER
LATEST HRRR AND HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR SOMERSET
COUNTY...WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH PBZ ADJACENT COUNTIES.
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER SHEAR AXIS. LOW CLOUDS ARE BANKED UP AGAINST THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENIES...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EAST. EXPECT
WINDS TO KEEP UP FOR THE OVERNIGHT...PREVENTING MINS FROM
BOTTOMING OUT TO THEIR DECOUPLED POTENTIAL. THEREFORE IT WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT IN MANY AREAS...WITH WIND AND
CLOUDS PREVENTING IT WE BELIEVE.
STILL A CLOSE CALL ON FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT FOR THE REST OF
MY WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES. THINK MIXING WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD
DECOUPLING/WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS. UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR FOR
EVERYONE...REGARDLESS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SW IN BASE OF TROF WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD
COVER SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONT CYCLONIC FLOW.
EXCEPTION IN SUSQ VALLEY WITH DOWNSLOPING OFF THE RIDGES. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE THE COLDEST SO FAR THIS FALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EARLY-TO-MID WEEK PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE DEEP
CLOSED LOW/NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND THE
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH GRIPPING MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE DEEP LOW WILL SEND A SERIES OF
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES OR SECONDARY/REINFORCING COLD FRONTS THROUGH
MS/OH VLY AND INTO THE MID ATLC/NE STATES INTO MID-WEEK AND BRING
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO CENTRAL PA. KEPT CONTINUITY WITH THE PREV
FCST CHC POPS GIVEN MDL TIMING DIFFS. QPF AMTS WILL BE LGT GIVEN
OVERALL LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE/LOW PWATS.
A 12Z MULTI-MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS SHOWS THE DEEP LOW LIFTING
NEWD THROUGH SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY NRN QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A REBOUND IN HEIGHTS WHICH SHOULD
TRANSLATE INTO A GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RIDGING SEEMS PROBABLE FROM LATER WED-EARLY THU BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FCST THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS REGION THIS EVENING. THE LONE
EXCEPTION IS IN ISOLATED SPRINKLES/SNOW FLURRIES DRIFTING INTO THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS FROM KFIG-KJST THAT MAY PRODUCE VERY LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS. THESE WILL DIMINISH BY 04Z. MVFR CIGS ARE A GOOD BET
OVERNIGHT IN THE NW MTNS INCLUDING KBFD AS UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER
GRADUALLY BUILDING RIDGE IN LOWER LEVELS WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN AN MVFR STRATOCU DECK. WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL PA WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WILL REMAIN AT 10 KTS OR ABOVE AT KJST
AND ALSO PROBABLY KMDT.
ON SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS LIKELY IN THE MORNING IN THE NW
MTNS...OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A VFR DAY ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE WEST AROUND 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
MON...SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW WILL BRING MVFR
CIGS/SCT SHRA TO THE WEST...OTHERWISE PRIMARILY VFR.
MON NIGHT-TUE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM W...BRINGING SCT
SHRA. A TSRA POSS TUE AFTERNOON. CIG/VSBY IMPACTS LIKELY ESP N/W.
WED-THU...MVFR CIGS/SCT SHRA PSBL NW...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ004>006.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...ROSS/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
902 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT THE COLDEST AIR OF THE FALL INTO
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN INTO
MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLEARING AND WINDS ~5KTS HAVE UP NORTH HAVE INCREASED FROST
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTH. IN CONCERT WITH KBUF...WILL
ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR WARREN MCKEAN AND POTTER COUNTIES. IN
ADDITION...EXPECT FREEZING TEMPS OVER SOMERSET COUNTY AS PER
LATEST HRRR AND HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR SOMERSET
COUNTY... WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH PBZ ADJACENT COUNTIES.
ISOLATED SHOWERS...SOME MIXED WITH SNOW...CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER
THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS AS COLDER AIR...UPPER SHEAR AXIS AND UPPER
CYCLONIC FLOW INCREASE OVER WESTERN HALF OF PA THIS EVENING. WILL
KEEP LOW POPS THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. OTHERWISE
QUIET WEATHER FOR THE AREA FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH POST
FRONTAL NW FLOW.
STILL A CLOSE CALL ON FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT FOR THE REST OF
MY WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES. THINK MIXING WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPS. WINDS WILL PRECLUDE FROST IN MOST AREAS...BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH LOWER SUSQ CAREFULLY FOR DECOUPLING AS MINS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S EXPECTED THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SW IN BASE OF TROF WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD
COVER SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONT CYCLONIC FLOW.
EXCEPTION IN SUSQ VALLEY WITH DOWNSLOPING OFF THE RIDGES. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE THE COLDEST SO FAR THIS FALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EARLY-TO-MID WEEK PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE DEEP
CLOSED LOW/NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND THE
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH GRIPPING MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE DEEP LOW WILL SEND A SERIES OF
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES OR SECONDARY/REINFORCING COLD FRONTS THROUGH
MS/OH VLY AND INTO THE MID ATLC/NE STATES INTO MID-WEEK AND BRING
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO CENTRAL PA. KEPT CONTINUITY WITH THE PREV
FCST CHC POPS GIVEN MDL TIMING DIFFS. QPF AMTS WILL BE LGT GIVEN
OVERALL LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE/LOW PWATS.
A 12Z MULTI-MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS SHOWS THE DEEP LOW LIFTING
NEWD THROUGH SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY NRN QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A REBOUND IN HEIGHTS WHICH SHOULD
TRANSLATE INTO A GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RIDGING SEEMS PROBABLE FROM LATER WED-EARLY THU BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FCST THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS REGION THIS EVENING. THE LONE
EXCEPTION IS IN ISOLATED SPRINKLES/SNOW FLURRIES DRIFTING INTO THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS FROM KFIG-KJST THAT MAY PRODUCE VERY LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS. THESE WILL DIMINISH BY 04Z. MVFR CIGS ARE A GOOD BET
OVERNIGHT IN THE NW MTNS INCLUDING KBFD AS UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER
GRADUALLY BUILDING RIDGE IN LOWER LEVELS WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN AN MVFR STRATOCU DECK. WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL PA WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WILL REMAIN AT 10 KTS OR ABOVE AT KJST
AND ALSO PROBABLY KMDT.
ON SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS LIKELY IN THE MORNING IN THE NW
MTNS...OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A VFR DAY ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE WEST AROUND 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
MON...SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW WILL BRING MVFR
CIGS/SCT SHRA TO THE WEST...OTHERWISE PRIMARILY VFR.
MON NIGHT-TUE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM W...BRINGING SCT
SHRA. A TSRA POSS TUE AFTERNOON. CIG/VSBY IMPACTS LIKELY ESP N/W.
WED-THU...MVFR CIGS/SCT SHRA PSBL NW...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ004>006.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...ROSS/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
850 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT THE COLDEST AIR OF THE FALL INTO
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN INTO
MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLEARING AND WINDS ~5KTS HAVE UP NORTH HAVE INCREASED FROST
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTH. IN CONCERT WITH KBUF...WILL
ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR WARREN MCKEAN AND POTTER COUNTIES. IN
ADDITION...EXPECT FREEZING TEMPS OVER SOMERSET COUNTY AS PER
LATEST HRRR AND HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR SOMERSET
COUNTY... WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH PBZ ADJACENT COUNTIES.
ISOLATED SHOWERS...SOME MIXED WITH SNOW...CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER
THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS AS COLDER AIR...UPPER SHEAR AXIS AND UPPER
CYCLONIC FLOW INCREASE OVER WESTERN HALF OF PA THIS EVENING. WILL
KEEP LOW POPS THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. OTHERWISE
QUIET WEATHER FOR THE AREA FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH POST
FRONTAL NW FLOW.
STILL A CLOSE CALL ON FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT FOR THE REST OF
MY WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES. THINK MIXING WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPS. WINDS WILL PRECLUDE FROST IN MOST AREAS...BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH LOWER SUSQ CAREFULLY FOR DECOUPLING AS MINS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S EXPECTED THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SW IN BASE OF TROF WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD
COVER SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONT CYCLONIC FLOW.
EXCEPTION IN SUSQ VALLEY WITH DOWNSLOPING OFF THE RIDGES. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE THE COLDEST SO FAR THIS FALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EARLY-TO-MID WEEK PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE DEEP
CLOSED LOW/NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND THE
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH GRIPPING MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE DEEP LOW WILL SEND A SERIES OF
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES OR SECONDARY/REINFORCING COLD FRONTS THROUGH
MS/OH VLY AND INTO THE MID ATLC/NE STATES INTO MID-WEEK AND BRING
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO CENTRAL PA. KEPT CONTINUITY WITH THE PREV
FCST CHC POPS GIVEN MDL TIMING DIFFS. QPF AMTS WILL BE LGT GIVEN
OVERALL LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE/LOW PWATS.
A 12Z MULTI-MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS SHOWS THE DEEP LOW LIFTING
NEWD THROUGH SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY NRN QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A REBOUND IN HEIGHTS WHICH SHOULD
TRANSLATE INTO A GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RIDGING SEEMS PROBABLE FROM LATER WED-EARLY THU BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FCST THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS REGION. WILL HAVE A FEW RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS VCTY KBFD AND KJST LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH NEXT
BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...MVFR CIGS/SHRA PSBL NW...OTHERWISE VFR.
TUE...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM W...SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSS N/W.
WED...MVFR CIGS/SHRA PSBL NW...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ004>006.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ033.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...ROSS/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1019 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE BY TO THE
SOUTH ALLOWING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY
MONDAY. COLD FRONTS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN EARLY IN THE WEEK
AND AGAIN NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE...WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO CALM DOWN IN RESPONSE TO A
BROADENING P/GRAD MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW SHALLOW/STEEP SFC INVERSIONS SETTING UP WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
VERY GOOD RAD COOLING OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES
A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR MINS AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FZ.W AREA...SO WILL LEAVE PRODUCT AS IS. THE FR.Y WAS LEFT IN PLACE
AS WELL...HOWEVER TDDS COULD BE A LITTLE HIGH FOR MUCH MORE THAN
PATCHY DEVELOPMENT.
730 PM EDT UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJ TO THE COOLER OBS HR/LY
TEMPS AND TD/S. OTHERWISE...FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
430 PM EDT UPDATE...A LEE TROF BISECTING THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON HAS
MAINTAINED A FAIRLY TIGHT P/GRAD WITH GUSTY CONDS IN GOOD VERTICAL
MIXING. WIND DIRECTIONS AND GUST MAGNITUDES HAVE BEEN VARIABLE NEAR
THE TROF AXIS...SO MADE SOME ADJS TO THE GOING WIND GRIDS.
AS OF 215 PM...THE AXIS OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME ESSENTIALLY ZONAL OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...CP HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST
WILL MOVE EAST AND REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. AS
THE HIGH MOVES EAST...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND ALLOW
WINDS TO DECOUPLE. THE CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE POINTS TO
AT LEAST SCATTERED AREAS OF FREEZING TEMPS ALL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. HENCE...WILL MAINTAIN THE EXISTING FREEZE
WARNING IN THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS...AND GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A
FREEZE WARNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE FREEZE
WATCH WAS IN PLACE. IT WILL BE CHILLY NIGHT AS WELL OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS WITH LOWS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE
FOOTHILLS...AND UPPER 30S IN THE NC PIEDMONT. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER HIGH...GENERALLY >5 DEGREES SO
WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION MAY BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY. HOWEVER...
WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY IN THE FOOTHILL COUNTIES/
ZONES ADJACENT TO THE FREEZE WARNINGS WHERE MIN TEMPS WILL REACH THE
MID 30S.
ON SUNDAY...DESPITE STRONG INSOLATION HIGH TEMPS ARE STILL FORECAST
TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AS THICKNESS RECOVERY WILL BE SLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL FEATURE A MEAN
LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD...
REINFORCED BY A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES OF VARYING INTENSITY. ONE OF
THESE WAVES MAY INSTIGATE FRONTOGENESIS ALONG LARGE SCALE BAROCLINIC
ZONE IN THE TENN/OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THE MON/TUE TIME FRAME.
THE SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE SOME DEGREE OF POSITIVE BUOYANCY WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TENN VALLEY DURING THIS TIME...AND EVEN
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...WHICH WOULD
POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW FAR EAST ANY ACTIVITY WILL
PROGRESS...AS IT IS LIKELY THAT THE MOST ROBUST INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE TENN VALLEY. NEVERTHELESS...WITH A DECENT AREA OF
MID/UPPER FORCING EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY/
EARLY TUE...CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN FEATURED MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FAVORED ALONG
THE TENN BORDER.
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER...ESP IN THE MID/HIGH LEVELS
BY TUE SHOULD OFFSET ANY INCREASES IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESS UNDER A
SLOWLY WEAKENING LONG WAVE TROUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...MODELS AGREE REASONABLY WELL ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AS
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE MEAN ERN TROUGH TUE NIGHT...THAT TROUGH
FILLS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL. A WEAK
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS OVER THE UPPER TENN
VALLEY...WITH THE 12Z GFS/CMC SHOWING IT PUSHING SOUTH ARRIVING IN
BACKDOOR FASHION WED/WED NIGHT WHILE THE 00Z EC JUST WASHES IT OUT.
THIS FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPS...WHICH UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAIN AROUND CLIMO WED-THU.
WEAK SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL BRIEFLY BEFORE ANOTHER
STRONGER FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE OH/TN VALLEYS. GFS/EC DEPICT THE
POSITION AND ORIENTATION OF THIS FRONT SIMILARLY...THOUGH THE GFS
CONTINUES TO FEATURE REMNANTS OF TC SIMON ENTERING THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WED AND SUBSEQUENTLY GETTING PICKED UP BY THE MIDLATITUDE
FLOW. THIS INTRODUCES VORT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE FRONT AND
LEADS TO A SFC WAVE MOVING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY NEXT SATURDAY. THE GFS IS CORRESPONDINGLY
SOMEWHAT WETTER. THIS SOLUTION IS BACKED UP BY A FAIR NUMBER OF NAEFS
MEMBERS. OVERALL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS POPS RAMPING UP BEGINNING THU
NIGHT AND PEAKING IN CHANCE RANGE SATURDAY. TEMPS SHOULD COOL A BIT
WITH THIS SECOND FROPA BUT REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...OCCASIONAL LOW END GUSTS THRU 00Z WITH A DECOUPLED ATMOS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SFC TDDS REMAIN TOO HIGH FOR A VSBY THREAT.
WINDS WILL ADJ SW/LY AFTER MORNING INVERSION BREAK.
ELSEWHERE...SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE AT KAVL AND KHKY BY DAYBREAK
WITH WINDS GOING CALM IN A FAIRLY DRY ATMOS. SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE SW BY MID DAY ALL SITES EXCEPT KAVL WHERE VALLEY FLOW
WILL ADJ S/LY TO SE/LY LATE.
OUTLOOK...VFR WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-02Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ010.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ033-048>053-
058-059-062>065.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ501-503-
505>507-509.
SC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ001>003.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...LG/SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...LG/SBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
643 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...
BACK EDGE OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW EXTENDS FROM LAFAYETTE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH MANCHESTER. THE COLD FRONT IS STILL WELL TO OUR
WEST AND IS JUST NOW APPROACHING THE MS RIVER. MODELS STILL AGREE
THAT SOME DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE PLATEAU AREA BY
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MID STATE
TODAY BUT THE ACTIVITY LOOKS WEAK WITH LITTLE ORGANIZATION.
WILL GO AHEAD AND UPDATE THE GRIDS AND LOWER POPS SOME MORE AS
WELL AS LEAN MORE TOWARD A DECREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MARCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS
MORNING. AT 235 PM THE LINE WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF I-65. NO
REPORTS OF SEVERE ACTIVITY THUS FAR AND THE TOR WATCH HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. JUST ISSUED AN UPDATED ZONE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT.
THE ACTIVITY WE ARE SEEING THIS MORNING IS PREFRONTAL AS THE MAIN
COLD FRONT IS STILL BACK ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF BOTH MO AND AR.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD AND SHOULD REACH MIDDLE TN
BETWEEN 7AM AND 10 AM THIS MORNING. IT SHOULD THEN CLEAR THE PLATEAU
BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
FOR TODAY...GIVEN THE ISSUANCE AT 4AM...WILL INCLUDE CATEGORICAL
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR THE EASTERN HALF FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
AND THEN LESSEN BOTH THE POPS AND TSTM CHANCES THE FURTHER WEST YOU
GO. IN THE POST FRONTAL SECTOR...NEUTRAL AND/OR NEG VORT ADVECTION
IS INDICATED. ADDITIONALLY...SFC TO 850 DIRECTIONAL DISPLACEMENT
LOOKS MINIMAL. THEREFORE...LIFT IN THE POST FRONTAL SECTOR LOOKS
MINIMAL AND WILL THEREFORE LEAN TOWARD SHUTTING DOWN THE PRECIP
BEHIND THE FRONT FROM WEST TO EAST.
QPF AMOUNTS THUS FAR WITH THE LINE ARE A GOOD 50-75% OR SO OF WHAT
THE MODELS WERE EXPECTING. SO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
HOURS...THE MAXIMUM IMPACT WILL BE THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 40 MPH OR SO.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM. CAA WILL BE IN PLACE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH SO AS TO WARRANT THE
NEED FOR AFTERNOON FALLING TEMP WORDING.
FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH
WILL BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN TX. THUS...WINDS WILL STAY A BIT
ELEVATED AND I WILL GO A LITTLE ABOVE THE GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS. STILL
THOUGH...LOWER 40S EXPECTED FOR MANY AREAS.
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT RATHER CHILLY DAY COMPARED
TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN. 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO ZERO AND HIGH
TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S...UPPER 50S PLATEAU.
FURTHERMORE...THE GRADIENT WILL NOT RELAX MUCH UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
SO WE WILL HAVE A NORTHERLY BREEZE OF 10 TO 15 MPH OR SO.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LOCATION OF THE SFC HIGH WILL BE JUST TO OUR
SOUTH. TIME HEIGHT RH FIELDS SHOW RATHER DRY AIR THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE LOWER LEVELS. THEREFORE...IT LOOKS BELIEVABLE THAT LOW TEMPS
SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR MANY AREAS.
THE PLATEAU WILL LIKELY SEE MID 30S WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT FROST.
A QUICK WARMUP IS EXPECTED FRO SUNDAY. 24HR 850 MB DELTA-T VALUES
WILL APPROACH 10C ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE WARMUP. FOR INSTANCE...GFS MOS INDICATES A 36F DIURNAL
SWING AT CKV. IT DOES LOOK AS THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
MAY COME INTO PLAY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL UNDERCUT THE WARMTH
THAT IS EXPECTED BY THE MODELS FOR SUNDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...THE WARMUP WILL CONTINUE WITH
LOWER 80S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. STILL LOOKING AT SOME WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND THEN A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. OTW...WARM PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED
AFTER A QUICK TASTE OF FALL THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1155 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
A DECENT COLD FRONT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR TS DEVELOPMENT THAT IS
APPROACHING MIDDLE TN AT ISSUANCE. SHOWERS AND TS WILL TRAVERSE
THE MID-STATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE TIMED OUT THE TS
FOR EACH TERMINAL AS BEST AS POSSIBLE. SOME TWEAKS MAY BE
NECESSARY...INCLUDING AMD FOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS IF THE
LINE HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT IS OVER W TN.
AS WE APPROACH DAYBREAK AND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT NEARS THE MID-
STATE...CURRENT STORMS SHOULD BE NEAR/ON THE PLATEAU. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA. WILL COVER WITH VCTS FOR NOW.
GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT. A SOLID NW BREEZE SHOULD BE UPON US BY THIS TIME FRIDAY
NIGHT AND RAIN WILL HAVE MOVED E OF MIDDLE TN.
UNGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 858 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IS CURRENTLY IN GOOD SHAPE SO THERE WON`T BE ANY GREAT
CHANGE THERE OTHER THAN A QUICK TWEAK TO THE TIMING OF THE LINE
ARRIVING IN ANY GIVEN AREA IN MIDDLE TN. THIS GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE
ON OUR HOMEPAGE IF YOU`RE INTERESTED IN SEEING THE LATEST THOUGHTS
ON THAT.
RUC SOUNDING ANALYSIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE MS RIVER WILL HAVE
THE RIGHT ENVIRONMENT TO MAINTAIN ITSELF TO AT LEAST THE I-65
CORRIDOR AND MAYBE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST. THE ONLY THING THAT
COULD DERAIL THIS FROM HAPPENING ARE THE STORMS THAT ARE CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHERN MS. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THESE
STORMS WILL PUSH NEWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IF THIS
OCCURS...THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME POLLUTED ENOUGH TO GREATLY
WEAKEN THE LINE AS IT CROSSES OVER THE TN RIVER.
BARRING WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE LINE...AND THE
CONCERN FOR A TOR WATCH...THE MAIN THREAT STILL LOOKS LIKE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS VEER JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE WHICH IS HELPING TO FLATTEN
OUT THE HODOGRAPHS. THAT`S NOT TO SAY THE TOR THREAT WILL BE
ZERO...BUT ONCE SURFACE WINDS VEER TO >180 DEGREES...THE TOR
THREAT DIMINISHES GREATLY. FOR THIS REASON...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
CURRENT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WORDING FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
THE FRONT ITSELF IS STILL LAGGING WELL BEHIND THIS LINE AND ISN`T
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE MID-STATE UNTIL LATE MORNING TO MID-
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. THIS MEANS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. FORTUNATELY IT
LOOKS LIKE ENVIRONMENTAL RECOVERY WILL BE WEAK...SO WE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO SKATE THROUGH A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUB-SEVERE STORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MORE ON THAT WITH THE FULL FORECAST PACKAGE
LATER TONIGHT.
UNGER
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
27
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1235 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...SEE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...MAIN ISSUE IN THE FIRST 6 HOURS WILL BE THE TIMING OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT LINE OF
SH/TSRA TO APPROACH COT-VCT LINE AROUND 07Z. REACHING A LRD-CRP-
RKP LINE AROUND 09Z. COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CEILINGS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IN MVFR RANGE. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND
NEAR KVCT TERMINAL. STORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA BETWEEN 10-12Z WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD INCREASE...AND LAST SEVERAL
HOURS OF THE HRRR SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER
OR NOT STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH. BETTER
SUPPORT SHOULD REMAIN NE OF THE FORECAST AREA SO CONFIDENCE IS ON
ANYTHING SEVERE REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE. WILL NOT INTRODUCE SEVERE
WORDING INTO THE GRIDS JUST YET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
AS CONVECTION APPROACHES THE AREA. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST WERE NEEDED TONIGHT. CURRENT POPS AND WX GRIDS
LOOK REASONABLE FOR THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. REFRESHED THE ZONES AND GRIDS TO INCLUDE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...VFR MAJORITY OF TAF PERIOD WITH WINDOW OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS FROM LATE THIS EVENING THRU ROUGHLY SUNRISE. VERY HUMID
AIRMASS OVER S TX THIS EVENING SHOULD AID IN A REDUCTION OF VSBYS
TO AROUND 6SM BY LATE EVENING AT KCRP/KALI AND PERHAPS KVCT. VSBYS
MAY FALL TO MVFR LEVELS BY 6Z AT SAID TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT IS
SET TO MOVE THRU THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH/WIND SHIFT OCCRNG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCT TSRA XPCTD TO
DVLP ALONG THE TROUGH AND IMPACT AREA TERMINALS FOR ONE TO THREE
HRS OVERNIGHT. HAVE TRIED TO INDICATE BEST TIMING OF PRECIP IN
TAFS WITH TEMPO GROUPS...BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED BASED OFF
FUTURE CONVECTIVE TRENDS. SFC WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VRB THIS
EVENING AND THEN NNERLY AFTER TROUGH MOVES THRU...AND INCREASING
TO AROUND 15KTS AFTER FROPA. LLVL CLOUDINESS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY
MID MRNG FRI /PERHAPS EARLIER/ WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL
TERMINALS DRNG THE DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 87 63 82 67 85 / 40 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 86 56 81 61 85 / 20 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 87 63 85 68 88 / 40 10 10 10 10
ALICE 87 61 83 64 87 / 40 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 84 65 80 71 84 / 40 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 88 58 83 63 87 / 20 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 87 64 83 66 86 / 50 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 84 69 81 72 83 / 40 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
JM/75...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
141 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND EXIT THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN OVER THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE APPALACHIANS FROM
THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AHEAD
OF IT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT FRIDAY...
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AND WIND GUSTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES WITH THE LATEST OBS AND MODEL TREND. MODIFIED POPS
WITH THE LATEST WSR-88D IMAGES.
AS OF 938 AM EDT FRIDAY...
A STRONG COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST IN THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING
WITH CONVECTION AHEAD AND ALONG IT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND CROSS
OUR REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR
THIS AFTERNOON HAS SHIFTED THE 5 PERCENT FOR WIND POTENTIAL AREA
UNDER SEE TEXT TO OUR SOUTH FROM NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWESTWARD TO
GEORGIA. THERE MAY STILL BE AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF VA INTO NC. USED A BLEND
OF THE HRRR AND RNK WRFARW TO SHAPED POPS FOR THIS MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MORE CHANGES LATER...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY...
MODELS OVERALL IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN QPF AND PLACEMENT
OF HIGHER LEVEL INSTABILITY...BUT NOT THAT BIG AT THIS POINT.
STILL DEALING WITH STRATUS/FOG FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS SOUTH
INTO THE UPPER ROANOKE VALLEY...EAST TO THE VA PIEDMONT. THE 00Z
CMC/NAM SHOW THIS PRETTY WELL AND FOLLOWED THEIR CLOUD COVER
DEPICTION INTO TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS ARE RACING EWD AHEAD OF
CONVECTION THAT IS LINED UP FROM CVG SOUTH THROUGH CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU TN INTO AL.
TODAY...EXPECT THE LOWER CLOUDS TO ERODE BY LATE MORNING BUT GIVE
WAY TO MID/HIGH CLOUDS...SO NOT A LOT OF SUNSHINE TO BE HAD...BUT
JUST ENOUGH TO BOOST TEMPS IN THE EAST TOWARD 80 AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS
IN THE 70S. A FEW SHOWERS EARLY IN THE LYH AREA BEFORE DAWN...WITH
PRE- FRONTAL SHOWERS ARRIVING TOWARD SRN WV INTO FAR SW VA BY LATE
MORNING.
INSTABILITY TODAY WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUD COVER AND
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE WEAK. ON THE OTHER
HAND...DECENT SHEAR MAY LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS AND FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE SW MTNS
OF VA INTO NC...AND MAY SEE SOME STRONGER CONVECTION LATER TODAY IN
THE SOUTHEAST CWA...BUT AT THAT TIME BEST DYNAMICS ARE HEADING NORTH
WITH ANOTHER AREA DEVELOPING EAST OF RALEIGH.
BASED ON THE STORM PREDICTION CENTERS FORECAST WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
SRN WV TO NW NC MTNS FOR GUSTY...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE MAY BE 2-3 BROKEN LINES OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM PIVOTING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. ONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BEST COVERAGE FROM WV SOUTH INTO
THE NC BLUE RIDGE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LESS COVERAGE EAST OF THE DAN
AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE PAINTING ENOUGH LIFT AND QPF TO GO WITH
LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF
LIFT ARRIVES THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONT BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST AND THIS LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS TO THE BLUE
RIDGE AND AND EAST...BEFORE EXITING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AT THIS POINT COLD AIR ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL COMMENCE INTO
THE WV/FAR SW VA MTNS AND EVENTUALLY NW NC. FLOW ALOFT AT 5H
REMAINS SW WITH WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC SO SOME LOW LVL
CONVERGENCE IS THERE...BUT NOT AS FAVORABLE AS A NW FLOW EVENT.
LOOK FOR THE SKIES TO CLEAR LEE OF THE SRN BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT AND
OUT EAST IN THE PIEDMONT TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY....WHILE THE MTNS
REMAINS BKN/OVC. TEMPS ARE TRICKY TONIGHT GIVEN MIXING AND
CLOUDS...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 8H TEMPS STILL FAVOR SOME OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S BY SAT
MORNING...WHILE MOST WILL SEE LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID
40S MOUNTAINS TO MID TO UPPER 50 SOUTHEAST...AS THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS DELAYED UNTIL SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...
BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR
AREA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WESTERN GULF REGION.
WILL START THE DAY OFF WITH A ROUGHLY 6MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO 25MPH TO 30MPH GUSTS DURING THE
MORNING FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...POSSIBLY
STRONGER ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE STRONGEST
DURING THE MORNING...AND WILL GRADUALLY RELAX DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE RIDGELINES FROM SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY IN
OUR FAR WEST...LIMITING HEATING SUCH THAT A FEW LOCATIONS MAY HOLD
IN THE UPPER 40S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. FURTHER EAST HOWEVER...CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP IN THE DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW...ALLOWING FOR
STRONGER HEATING FROM WEST TO EAST. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHSIDE WILL
REACH INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.
EXPECT TO HEAD INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER...
WHICH WILL ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO DROP OFF TO NEAR CALM FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. COOL TEMPERATURES AS THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
PASSING OVERHEAD WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
BRING SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS...
POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 20S IN A FEW SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARMER FURTHER EAST...GENERALLY UPPER 30S/LOW 40S. OF CONCERN WILL
BE THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FROST DEVELOPING IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN SUNDAY...WHICH MAY CAUSE DAMAGE TO TENDER
VEGETATION. FROST WILL BE MORE LIKELY IN AREAS OUT IN THE OPEN...
AWAY FROM TREES WHERE THE LEAF COVER WOULD OFFER SOME PROTECTION
FROM FROST FORMATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BRINGING OUR WIND DIRECTION MORE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. AS SUCH...EXPECT A WARMING TREND FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALSO MEANS THAT FROST APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO PASS
ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...TRIGGERING RAINFALL THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
REGION. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIFFER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOME MODELS BRINGING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE AREA WHILE
OTHERS KEEP HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON WHICHEVER MODEL SOLUTION WINS OUT...BUT IN EITHER
EVENT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE AT LEAST NEAR SEASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 141 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THE WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED NORTH INTO NORTHERN VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A STRONG COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST MOVING
EAST ACROSS OHIO VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
MVFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF
THE STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHTN COULD CONTAIN
GUSTY WINDS.
WIND FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AND AT TIME SOUTHEAST...WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST THEN WEST
WITH UPSLOPE GETTING GOING IN THE MTNS. SOUNDING FORECASTS SUGGEST
MORE DZ AT BLF/LWB THAN -RA. EXPECT IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
TIMING OF CLEARING IS STILL TRICKY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE CLEARING OUT IN THE PIEDMONT TO
ROANOKE/BLACKSBURG BUT UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS AT BLF/LWB MAY OCCUR INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN VFR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. A FRONT CLOSES IN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING. RAIN CHANCES LOOK SMALL MONDAY NOW AS MAIN WAVE STAYS
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MAY SEE A BETTER THREAT OF SHOWERS TUESDAY
WITH MODERATE THREAT OF SUB VFR INTO THE MTNS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...KK/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
941 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EXIT
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN OVER THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE APPALACHIANS FROM
THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AHEAD
OF IT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 938 AM EDT FRIDAY...
A STRONG COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST IN THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING
WITH CONVECTION AHEAD AND ALONG IT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND CROSS
OUR REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR
THIS AFTERNOON HAS SHIFTED THE 5 PERCENT FOR WIND POTENTIAL AREA
UNDER SEE TEXT TO OUR SOUTH FROM NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWESTWARD TO
GEORGIA. THERE MAY STILL BE AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF VA INTO NC. USED A BLEND
OF THE HRRR AND RNK WRFARW TO SHAPED POPS FOR THIS MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MORE CHANGES LATER...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY...
MODELS OVERALL IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN QPF AND PLACEMENT
OF HIGHER LEVEL INSTABILITY...BUT NOT THAT BIG AT THIS POINT.
STILL DEALING WITH STRATUS/FOG FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS SOUTH
INTO THE UPPER ROANOKE VALLEY...EAST TO THE VA PIEDMONT. THE 00Z
CMC/NAM SHOW THIS PRETTY WELL AND FOLLOWED THEIR CLOUD COVER
DEPICTION INTO TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS ARE RACING EWD AHEAD OF
CONVECTION THAT IS LINED UP FROM CVG SOUTH THROUGH CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU TN INTO AL.
TODAY...EXPECT THE LOWER CLOUDS TO ERODE BY LATE MORNING BUT GIVE
WAY TO MID/HIGH CLOUDS...SO NOT A LOT OF SUNSHINE TO BE HAD...BUT
JUST ENOUGH TO BOOST TEMPS IN THE EAST TOWARD 80 AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS
IN THE 70S. A FEW SHOWERS EARLY IN THE LYH AREA BEFORE DAWN...WITH
PRE- FRONTAL SHOWERS ARRIVING TOWARD SRN WV INTO FAR SW VA BY LATE
MORNING.
INSTABILITY TODAY WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUD COVER AND
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE WEAK. ON THE OTHER
HAND...DECENT SHEAR MAY LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS AND FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE SW MTNS
OF VA INTO NC...AND MAY SEE SOME STRONGER CONVECTION LATER TODAY IN
THE SOUTHEAST CWA...BUT AT THAT TIME BEST DYNAMICS ARE HEADING NORTH
WITH ANOTHER AREA DEVELOPING EAST OF RALEIGH.
BASED ON THE STORM PREDICTION CENTERS FORECAST WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
SRN WV TO NW NC MTNS FOR GUSTY...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE MAY BE 2-3 BROKEN LINES OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM PIVOTING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. ONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BEST COVERAGE FROM WV SOUTH INTO
THE NC BLUE RIDGE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LESS COVERAGE EAST OF THE DAN
AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE PAINTING ENOUGH LIFT AND QPF TO GO WITH
LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF
LIFT ARRIVES THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONT BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST AND THIS LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS TO THE BLUE
RIDGE AND AND EAST...BEFORE EXITING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AT THIS POINT COLD AIR ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL COMMENCE INTO
THE WV/FAR SW VA MTNS AND EVENTUALLY NW NC. FLOW ALOFT AT 5H
REMAINS SW WITH WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC SO SOME LOW LVL
CONVERGENCE IS THERE...BUT NOT AS FAVORABLE AS A NW FLOW EVENT.
LOOK FOR THE SKIES TO CLEAR LEE OF THE SRN BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT AND
OUT EAST IN THE PIEDMONT TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY....WHILE THE MTNS
REMAINS BKN/OVC. TEMPS ARE TRICKY TONIGHT GIVEN MIXING AND
CLOUDS...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 8H TEMPS STILL FAVOR SOME OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S BY SAT
MORNING...WHILE MOST WILL SEE LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID
40S MOUNTAINS TO MID TO UPPER 50 SOUTHEAST...AS THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS DELAYED UNTIL SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...
BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR
AREA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WESTERN GULF REGION.
WILL START THE DAY OFF WITH A ROUGHLY 6MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO 25MPH TO 30MPH GUSTS DURING THE
MORNING FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...POSSIBLY
STRONGER ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE STRONGEST
DURING THE MORNING...AND WILL GRADUALLY RELAX DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE RIDGELINES FROM SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY IN
OUR FAR WEST...LIMITING HEATING SUCH THAT A FEW LOCATIONS MAY HOLD
IN THE UPPER 40S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. FURTHER EAST HOWEVER...CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP IN THE DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW...ALLOWING FOR
STRONGER HEATING FROM WEST TO EAST. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHSIDE WILL
REACH INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.
EXPECT TO HEAD INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER...
WHICH WILL ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO DROP OFF TO NEAR CALM FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. COOL TEMPERATURES AS THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
PASSING OVERHEAD WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
BRING SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS...
POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 20S IN A FEW SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARMER FURTHER EAST...GENERALLY UPPER 30S/LOW 40S. OF CONCERN WILL
BE THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FROST DEVELOPING IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN SUNDAY...WHICH MAY CAUSE DAMAGE TO TENDER
VEGETATION. FROST WILL BE MORE LIKELY IN AREAS OUT IN THE OPEN...
AWAY FROM TREES WHERE THE LEAF COVER WOULD OFFER SOME PROTECTION
FROM FROST FORMATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BRINGING OUR WIND DIRECTION MORE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. AS SUCH...EXPECT A WARMING TREND FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALSO MEANS THAT FROST APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO PASS
ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...TRIGGERING RAINFALL THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
REGION. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIFFER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOME MODELS BRINGING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE AREA WHILE
OTHERS KEEP HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON WHICHEVER MODEL SOLUTION WINS OUT...BUT IN EITHER
EVENT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE AT LEAST NEAR SEASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT FRIDAY...
FORECAST THIS MORNING SIMILAR TO PAST 3 MORNINGS WITH FOG/LOW
STRATUS BURNING OFF IN THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...THIS TIME
LEFT BEHIND WILL BE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN AHEAD OF
FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY. CONVECTION HAS BEEN WEAKENING THIS
MORNING IN KY BUT STILL EXPECT SCT TO BKN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED TSRA TO ENTER THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY MAKING IT OVER THE
BLUE RIDGE AFTER 18Z.
OVERALL SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS...WITH MARGINAL
THREAT FOR IFR VSBYS.
THE LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP CLEARING AND ENDING PRECIP SO
OVERALL LOOKS LIKE HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON THEN
EXITING THE PIEDMONT EARLY THIS EVENING. WIND FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND AT TIME SOUTHEAST...WITH GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS.
TONIGHT...FLOW TURNS SW THEN WEST WITH UPSLOPE GETTING GOING IN
THE MTNS. SOUNDING FORECASTS SUGGEST MORE DZ AT BLF/LWB THAN -RA.
EXPECT IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
TIMING OF CLEARING IS STILL TRICKY. EARLY SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD
BE CLEARING OUT IN THE PIEDMONT TO ROANOKE/BLACKSBURG BUT UPSLOPE
MVFR CIGS AT BLF/LWB MAY OCCUR INTO SAT AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZY NW
WINDS.
WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN VFR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A FRONT
CLOSES IN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING. RAIN
CHANCES LOOK SMALL MONDAY NOW AS MAIN WAVE STAYS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. MAY SEE A BETTER THREAT OF SHOWERS TUESDAY WITH
MODERATE THREAT OF SUB VFR INTO THE MTNS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1245 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RAIN SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES THAT HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA/EASTERN MINNESOTA. AS OF
9AM...THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS CURL SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA DOWN THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES AND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER NEAR LA CROSSE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN FAIRLY LOW ON THE
RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES LOCALLY...BUT SOME STRONGER FORCING TO THE
NORTHWEST SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MID
LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF AND PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST. BECAUSE OF
THIS...HAVE ADDED THE RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THOUGH
MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH ON THE POPS GIVEN THE COVERAGE. THERMALLY
IT LOOKS WARM ENOUGH BASED ON RAP SOUNDINGS TO STAY AS ALL RAIN
UNTIL LATER ON TONIGHT WHEN THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN THAT IT COULD
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. WILL LET ALL OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE COME IN
BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH THE WINDS TODAY AND THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH ACROSS
WISCONSIN. LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING SHOWERS OCCURRING
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO
EASTERN IOWA AND THESE WERE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
BY 12Z...EXPECTING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT
TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BUT WILL HOLD ONTO A SMALL RAIN CHANCE
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS JUST TO MAKE SURE THEY ARE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA.
AFTER THAT...THE CONCERN FOR TODAY IS WITH THE WINDS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA...THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME TIGHT
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW. AT THE SAME
TIME...A TROPOPAUSE FOLD WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE
03.00Z NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THIS WILL NOT BE AN OVERLY STRONG TROP
FOLD AND SHOULD ONLY GET DOWN TO ABOUT 350 MB OR SO. THE REGION
WILL BE ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF BOTH THE 500 AND 300 MB JET WHICH
WILL HELP TO CREATE SOME ADDITIONAL SUBSIDENCE. THE BEST 3 HOUR
PRESSURE RISES WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AS WILL THE BEST
850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. WITH 850 MB WINDS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A WINDY DAY BUT
WITH SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. IN THE WIND PRONE
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...SHOULD SEE
SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35
KNOTS. THE WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL COME DOWN SOME AFTER
SUNSET...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT REALLY SHOW A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION DEVELOPING...SO EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.
THE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING
OVER MINNESOTA. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN TONIGHT WITH SOME WEAK TO MODERATE QG
CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE 850-300 MB LAYER. THERE
SHOULD ALSO BE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE 285K
ISENTROPIC SURFACE AS THIS LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION UNDERNEATH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH ALL THE MODELS SHOWING THIS SLIDING
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. HAVE MAINTAINED THE 80
PERCENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BUT SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING SOME.
NOT REALLY EXPECTING THIS TO START MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING AND
THEN MAINLY AFFECTING LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SNOW TONIGHT AS THERE WILL BE ICE IN THE
CLOUDS AND THE ENTIRE SOUNDING BELOW ZERO EXCEPT FOR THE LOWEST
LEVELS. AS THESE LOW LEVELS COOL...SNOW SHOULD MIX IN WITH THE
RAIN AND IN SOME PLACES IT COULD COMPLETELY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
FOR AWHILE...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE RATES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER. THIS
COULD PRODUCE A FEW TENTHS OF ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY SURFACE...BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING OVER A HALF INCH.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES PAST THE AREA...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVING BY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S
TODAY AND UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SATURDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S AND A FREEZE WARNING AND/OR FROST ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE COUNTRY. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW INITIALLY SOUTH OF HUDSONS BAY IS EXPECT TO RETROGRADE SOME
EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE STARTING TO MOVE EAST AGAIN BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. CURRENT INDICATIONS BY THE MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL COME
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO MODERATE MUCH WITH MAINLY 50S
UNTIL POSSIBLY ABOUT THURSDAY WHEN SOME 60S COULD RETURN TO THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS ON THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TONIGHT AND WHETHER ANY IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH IT.
SOME LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION BUT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE UP TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS SHIFTING
EAST. THE MORE IMPRESSIVE BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL DROP DOWN
LATER TONIGHT AND SHOULD FEATURE RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
BETWEEN 6-12Z. THERE STILL IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT WHETHER IT WILL
SNOW IN THE VALLEY AT LSE AND WHETHER ANY OF THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL
MAKE IT INTO RST...SO HAVE NOT PUT IN ANY IFR VISIBILITIES YET FOR
THE SNOW. SHOULD CONFIDENCE INCREASE THIS EVENING...THEN THE MOST
LIKELY PERIOD FOR THE SNOW/IFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE BETWEEN 7-12Z.
THE BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY AND BE OUT
BY MID MORNING SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TOMORROW WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 30KTS EXPECTED...EVEN
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
922 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RAIN SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES THAT HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA/EASTERN MINNESOTA. AS OF
9AM...THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS CURL SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA DOWN THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES AND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER NEAR LA CROSSE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN FAIRLY LOW ON THE
RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES LOCALLY...BUT SOME STRONGER FORCING TO THE
NORTHWEST SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MID
LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF AND PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST. BECAUSE OF
THIS...HAVE ADDED THE RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THOUGH
MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH ON THE POPS GIVEN THE COVERAGE. THERMALLY
IT LOOKS WARM ENOUGH BASED ON RAP SOUNDINGS TO STAY AS ALL RAIN
UNTIL LATER ON TONIGHT WHEN THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN THAT IT COULD
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. WILL LET ALL OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE COME IN
BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH THE WINDS TODAY AND THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH ACROSS
WISCONSIN. LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING SHOWERS OCCURRING
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO
EASTERN IOWA AND THESE WERE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
BY 12Z...EXPECTING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT
TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BUT WILL HOLD ONTO A SMALL RAIN CHANCE
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS JUST TO MAKE SURE THEY ARE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA.
AFTER THAT...THE CONCERN FOR TODAY IS WITH THE WINDS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA...THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME TIGHT
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW. AT THE SAME
TIME...A TROPOPAUSE FOLD WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE
03.00Z NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THIS WILL NOT BE AN OVERLY STRONG TROP
FOLD AND SHOULD ONLY GET DOWN TO ABOUT 350 MB OR SO. THE REGION
WILL BE ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF BOTH THE 500 AND 300 MB JET WHICH
WILL HELP TO CREATE SOME ADDITIONAL SUBSIDENCE. THE BEST 3 HOUR
PRESSURE RISES WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AS WILL THE BEST
850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. WITH 850 MB WINDS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A WINDY DAY BUT
WITH SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. IN THE WIND PRONE
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...SHOULD SEE
SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35
KNOTS. THE WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL COME DOWN SOME AFTER
SUNSET...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT REALLY SHOW A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION DEVELOPING...SO EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.
THE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING
OVER MINNESOTA. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN TONIGHT WITH SOME WEAK TO MODERATE QG
CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE 850-300 MB LAYER. THERE
SHOULD ALSO BE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE 285K
ISENTROPIC SURFACE AS THIS LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION UNDERNEATH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH ALL THE MODELS SHOWING THIS SLIDING
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. HAVE MAINTAINED THE 80
PERCENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BUT SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING SOME.
NOT REALLY EXPECTING THIS TO START MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING AND
THEN MAINLY AFFECTING LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SNOW TONIGHT AS THERE WILL BE ICE IN THE
CLOUDS AND THE ENTIRE SOUNDING BELOW ZERO EXCEPT FOR THE LOWEST
LEVELS. AS THESE LOW LEVELS COOL...SNOW SHOULD MIX IN WITH THE
RAIN AND IN SOME PLACES IT COULD COMPLETELY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
FOR AWHILE...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE RATES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER. THIS
COULD PRODUCE A FEW TENTHS OF ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY SURFACE...BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING OVER A HALF INCH.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES PAST THE AREA...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVING BY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S
TODAY AND UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SATURDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S AND A FREEZE WARNING AND/OR FROST ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE COUNTRY. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW INITIALLY SOUTH OF HUDSONS BAY IS EXPECT TO RETROGRADE SOME
EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE STARTING TO MOVE EAST AGAIN BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. CURRENT INDICATIONS BY THE MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL COME
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO MODERATE MUCH WITH MAINLY 50S
UNTIL POSSIBLY ABOUT THURSDAY WHEN SOME 60S COULD RETURN TO THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
CIGS WERE RISING INTO MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING AS INCREASING
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE LOW BRING IN DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR.
STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH MECHANICAL MIXING TO ABOUT
875MB EXPECTED TO ALLOW CIGS TO RISE INTO THE 3K-4K FT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS ON TOP THIS MIXED LAYER IN THE 30-35KT
RANGE TODAY WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCING 15-25KT WINDS. A
BLUSTERY/WINDY LATE MORNING AFTERNOON EXPECTED WITH THESE NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING 28-32KTS. WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT REMAIN NORTHWEST AROUND 15KTS TONIGHT.
NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH A ROUND OF LIFT
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE 925-700MB LAYER. CIGS LOWER INTO MVFR
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME PRECIP TO MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES
AFTER 09Z. LEFT THIS RATHER GENERAL FOR NOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE COLUMN TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME WET SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN LATE
TONIGHT...MORE-SO AT THE RIDGE-TOP/HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS VS.
THE RIVER VALLEYS. HOWEVER DID INCLUDE A -RASN MENTION AT BOTH KRST
AND KLSE. IF PRECIP RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH...MORE ALONG/EAST OF THE
MS RIVER...ANY -RA MAY CHANGE OVER TO ALL -SN AS THE PRECIP DRAGS
COLDER AIR TOWARD THE SFC AND COOLS THE COLUMN. IF THIS OCCURS VSBYS
AFTER 09Z IN THIS WOULD BE MORE IN THE 1-3SM RANGE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1140 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING ALONG BOTH THE WEST AND EAST COASTS OF NORTH AMERICA
AND LONG WAVE TROUGHING DEVELOPING IN-BETWEEN. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
PORTION OF THIS LONG WAVE TROUGH FEATURES A POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE THE NORTHERN STREAM CONSISTED OF A
TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WAS PRESENT ALONG THE MN/SD BORDER. DPVA AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAS SUPPORTED A BAND OF SHOWERS FROM NW IA
INTO CENTRAL AND NE MN. AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE...A
STREAM OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS HELPED SPREAD 1.5-2 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER THROUGH MO...IL AND NOW APPROACHING SOUTHERN WI.
THIS MOISTURE...THE TRANSPORT...DPVA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE AND 1000-2000 J/KG MUCAPE ACCOMPANYING THE HIGHER MOISTURE
HAS SUPPORTED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...SOME HAVE BEGUN TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST AREA
SITS IN A MASS OF LOW STRATUS...AIDED BY BEING IN A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE. TO THE WEST...THOUGH...A
WEDGE OF CLEAR SKIES EXISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...AHEAD OF A
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE TROUGH OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA
REMAINS PROGGED TO DIG THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. AND MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. BY 00Z SAT...MOST MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LOW
SITUATED RIGHT ON TOP OF LSE. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE
MOIST FLOW REGIME CURRENTLY SPREADING NORTH TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...IT SHOULD
BRING AN AIRMASS IN MORE SIMILAR TO LATE OCTOBER/EARLY NOVEMBER.
FOR TONIGHT...MUCH OF THE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS PROGGED TO
STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AND INSTABILITY ACCOMPANYING IT AWAY.
HOWEVER...WE STILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH THE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE
MN/SD BORDER HEADING EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. DPVA FROM THE SHORTWAVE
INTERACTING WITH 1-1.5 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AHEAD OF IT...ALONG
WITH SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD HELP BRING SHOWERS TO MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE RAIN IN
THE LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INTENSITY...GIVEN THE UNSTABLE AIR
STAYING AWAY FROM THE AREA. CANT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL GIVEN PRESENCE OF WEAK INSTABILITY PROGGED. THERE HAS BEEN A
TREND FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO GET OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
QUICKER IN 02.06Z/02.12Z GUIDANCE...SO HAVE ADJUSTED CHANCES
TOWARDS A DRIER OVERNIGHT. SKIES COULD CLEAR OUT FOR A TIME
OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS THE CURRENT WEDGE OF CLEARING IN THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS MOVES IN.
ON FRIDAY...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
IN...SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOSTLY A SUBSIDENT REGIME IN PLACE. THIS WILL
HELP KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY. HOWEVER...AS WE APPROACH
00Z SAT...ANOTHER BAND OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW THAT FORMS COULD BEGIN TO
APPROACH FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INCLUDED
20 PERCENT CHANCES JUST IN CASE. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ARE GOING TO
BE THE BIG DEAL FOR FRIDAY...THOUGH. A SUSTAINED 30-40 KT 925MB
NORTHWEST WIND WILL HELP DRIVE 925MB TEMPS DOWN FROM 8-12C AT 09Z
FRI TO 3-6C BY 18Z FRI...AND PERHAPS AS LOW AS 2C BY 00Z SAT.
THUS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD EITHER HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH
THE DAY. MANY LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY WITH VALLEY AREAS STANDING THE BEST CHANCE TO GET ABOVE
50.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
A POTENT AND FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING WITH IT SOME OF THE CHILLIEST AIR OF THE
THE FALL SO FAR. PRECIPITATION SHOULD PUSH INTO NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE EVENING THEN SWINGING ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO START OUT AS LIGHT
RAIN BUT WILL THEN SWITCH OVER TO A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. IN FACT..THE SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
ACCUMULATE A SLUSHY 1/2 INCH OR SO ON ELEVATED SURFACES AWAY FROM
VALLEY LOCATIONS. IF THIS SNOWFALL WOULD OCCUR IT WOULD BE THE 4TH
EARLIEST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR ROCHESTER...AND IF SNOW IS
MEASURED AT LA CROSSE IT WOULD BE THE 3RD EARLIEST. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. WE WILL SEE THE WINDS SWITCH TO
NORTHWEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE. THE COMBINATION OF THE
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH... AND
FALLING SNOW COULD CAUSE SOME BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SO WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL. IT WILL BE CHILLY
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY WILL BE A RATHER RAW DAY OVER THE
REGION...AT LEAST COMPARED TO WHERE WE WERE LAST WEEKEND. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES
WON/T MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THOSE
WITH COLD SENSITIVE VEGETATION SHOULD TAKE THE PROPER PRECAUTIONS
TO PROTECT IT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. IN
FACT...SOME LOCATIONS OVER CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL
LIKELY SEE A FREEZE OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES OVER THESE
AREAS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S...PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT.
COOL NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVER
CENTRAL ONTARIO WITH A DEEP TROUGH PERSISTING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. SOME RELIEF FROM THE COOL
WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND ZONAL FLOW SETS UP. HIGHS SHOULD
REBOUND INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
AS OF 03.0430Z...RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED NORTH AND EAST OF TAF
AIRFIELDS AS THE RESPONSIBLE SURFACE LOW IS JUST NORTHWEST OF
KGRB. DESPITE VFR CEILINGS AT KLSE...WOULD EXPECT SOME LOWERING
INTO AT LEAST THE MVFR RANGE AS BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUD SHIELD
APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS A NARROW
CLEARING WEDGE IMMEDIATELY TO THE WEST OF THESE CLOUDS ACROSS
CENTRAL MN AND COULD SEE SOME BRIEF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY AT KRST. HONORED THIS POSSIBILITY WITH A TEMPO GROUP
FOR 3SM IN MIST FROM 03.09Z TO 03.12Z. INCREASING MVFR/VFR CLOUDS
FROM THE WEST SHOULD SQUASH FOG POTENTIAL BY DAYBREAK. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 TO 25
KTS AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 35 KTS AT KRST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
526 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW FROM OVER NRN ONTARIO INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES. A WEAK UPSTREAM
SHRTWV LOCATED OVER FAR NE MN COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -4C
AND CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL WRLY FLOW SUPPORTED LAKE EFFECT PCPN FROM NEAR
M-38 INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
PREVAILED ACROSS THE CWA.
TODAY...AS THE MN SHRTWV MOVES TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER LARGER SHRTWV
SLIDES TO THE S THROUGH NW ONTARIO...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
WSW...SHIFTING THE LAKE EFFECT PCPN MAINLY OVER THE KEWEEAW. IN
ADDITION...MODELS AND UPSTREAM RAOBS SUGGEST SOME SFC-850 DRYING
ALONG WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAINING AROUND 4K-5K FT SHOULD BRING
A DIMINISHING TREND WITH THE PCPN. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS STILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FAR
ENOUG INLAND FROM THE WARMING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE WATER TEMPS WERE
STILL IN THE UPPER 40S.
TONIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN AS
850 MB TEMPS LINGER NEAR -3C WITH CONTINUED WSW LOW LEVEL FLOW.
WITHOUT ANY ENHANCING SHORTWAVES AND LESS FAVORABLE SFC-850 MB
MOISTURE UPSTREAM...ONLY SCT LAKE EFFECT SHRA/SHSN ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE KEWEENAW WITH LITTLE QPF(LESS THAN 0.05 INCH) AND NO SNOW
ACCUMULATON. WITH SOME CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS...MIN TEMPS
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S INLAND WEST HALF AND INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S EAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
THE LARGE 500MB TROUGH DOMINATING E CANADA AND THE E HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S. AT 12Z MONDAY WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE ZONAL
OVER THE U.S. FROM MID WEEK THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 500MB LOW
ITSELF WILL REMAIN ACROSS N MANITOBA OR N ONTARIO THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S. WE WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. AS A RESULT...MIXED MORNING PRECIP WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY.
THE MAIN TIME PERIODS OF INTEREST WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE 500MB LOW IS THE CLOSEST TO LAKE
SUPERIOR/UPPER MI. POPS MAY NEAR THE LIKELY CATEGORY OVER THE FAR W
MONDAY EVENING. TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY COULD BE BREEZY
ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WITH THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE SLOWLY EXITING LARGE SFC LOW...AND A RIDGE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE N PLAINS. WENT WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...WHICH RESULTED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/MORNING
SHOWERS SHOWERS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND NEARING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS AND S CENTRAL CANADA. &&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
WHILE THE ARRIVAL OF SOME DRIER AIR HAS CAUSED THE CIGS AT THE TAF
SITES TO GO TO VFR...THE ARRIVAL OF A BAND OF LOWER CLDS NOW MOVING
INTO WRN LK SUP WL BRING MVFR CIGS TO CMX IN THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPSLOPE W WIND COMPONENT. SINCE THE WIND WL DOWNSLOPE INTO SAW...THE
TRANSITION BACK TO MVFR IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. AS THE FLOW BACKS
FURTHER TO THE SW ON SUN IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING...THE
CIGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. STRONGER GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD LINGER ALL NGT AT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX LOCATION. GUSTY WINDS
AT IWD AND SAW WL OCCUR WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON SUN. EXPECT THE GUSTS
TO DIMINISH ON SUN EVNG WITH THE LOSS OF THE MIXING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
A SURFACE LOW ROTATING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO
PERSISTENT AND GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS OF 15-30KTS DURING THAT
PERIOD. THIS LOW WILL SHIFT EAST INTO QUEBEC BY THURSDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ALLOWING WINDS
TO DIMINISH.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
459 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW FROM OVER NRN ONTARIO INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES. A WEAK UPSTREAM
SHRTWV LOCATED OVER FAR NE MN COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -4C
AND CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL WRLY FLOW SUPPORTED LAKE EFFECT PCPN FROM NEAR
M-38 INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
PREVAILED ACROSS THE CWA.
TODAY...AS THE MN SHRTWV MOVES TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER LARGER SHRTWV
SLIDES TO THE S THROUGH NW ONTARIO...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
WSW...SHIFTING THE LAKE EFFECT PCPN MAINLY OVER THE KEWEEAW. IN
ADDITION...MODELS AND UPSTREAM RAOBS SUGGEST SOME SFC-850 DRYING
ALONG WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAINING AROUND 4K-5K FT SHOULD BRING
A DIMINISHING TREND WITH THE PCPN. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS STILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FAR
ENOUG INLAND FROM THE WARMING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE WATER TEMPS WERE
STILL IN THE UPPER 40S.
TONIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN AS
850 MB TEMPS LINGER NEAR -3C WITH CONTINUED WSW LOW LEVEL FLOW.
WITHOUT ANY ENHANCING SHORTWAVES AND LESS FAVORABLE SFC-850 MB
MOISTURE UPSTREAM...ONLY SCT LAKE EFFECT SHRA/SHSN ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE KEWEENAW WITH LITTLE QPF(LESS THAN 0.05 INCH) AND NO SNOW
ACCUMULATON. WITH SOME CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS...MIN TEMPS
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S INLAND WEST HALF AND INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
THE PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THU WILL FEATURE THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION MEANDERING OVER NRN ONTARIO. THE NRN
JET STREAM WILL BE WELL S OF THE AREA MON...BUT WILL MOVE OVER THE
CWA BY TUE NIGHT AND REMAIN HERE UNTIL THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS THE
REGION ON THU OR FRI. THIS WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT SWINGS IN TEMPS
FROM OCCURRING THROUGH THU AS TEMPS REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
TEMP PROFILES WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT PRECIP
THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THE UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO PERIODS TO LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY SUN NIGHT...MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. ONLY CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIP
WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NWRN UPPER MI /WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S EACH
NIGHT/...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
WED AND THU LOOK LIKE THE DRIEST DAYS THIS WEEK AS 1000-500MB RH
DROPS TO NEAR OR BELOW 50 PERCENT AND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
AFTER THU...CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS MODEL DISAGREEMENT INCREASES.
OVERALL...THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
WHILE THE ARRIVAL OF SOME DRIER AIR HAS CAUSED THE CIGS AT THE TAF
SITES TO GO TO VFR...THE ARRIVAL OF A BAND OF LOWER CLDS NOW MOVING
INTO WRN LK SUP WL BRING MVFR CIGS TO CMX IN THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPSLOPE W WIND COMPONENT. SINCE THE WIND WL DOWNSLOPE INTO SAW...THE
TRANSITION BACK TO MVFR IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. AS THE FLOW BACKS
FURTHER TO THE SW ON SUN IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING...THE
CIGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. STRONGER GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD LINGER ALL NGT AT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX LOCATION. GUSTY WINDS
AT IWD AND SAW WL OCCUR WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON SUN. EXPECT THE GUSTS
TO DIMINISH ON SUN EVNG WITH THE LOSS OF THE MIXING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
A SURFACE LOW ROTATING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO
PERSISTENT AND GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS OF 15-30KTS DURING THAT
PERIOD. THIS LOW WILL SHIFT EAST INTO QUEBEC BY THURSDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ALLOWING WINDS
TO DIMINISH.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
449 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A CHILLY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ALSO
NEAR THE THOUSAND ISLANDS NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN WILL LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND END THIS EVENING
AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW
SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR AVERAGE EARLY
IN THE WORKWEEK BEFORE DROPPING BELOW AVERAGE AGAIN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ONGOING LAKE
EFFECT RAIN. LAKE INDUCED CAPE WILL BE NEAR 1200J/KG WITH
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 20K FEET THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY LOWERING THIS AFTERNOON.
OFF LAKE ERIE...
A WIDE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
BAND NEVER REACHED A HIGH LEVEL OF ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT BUT HAS
PRODUCED SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN SUBURBS OF
BUFFALO AS EXPECTED. UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY FROM KCLE SHOWS A
DISTINCT KINK IN THE BAND...WITH A NEW EAST/WEST ORIENTED BAND OF
LAKE EFFECT RAIN FROM ASHTABULA OHIO TO SOUTHERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY.
MEANWHILE THE NORTHERN BAND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE THE
SOUTHERN BAND BECOMES DOMINANT. THIS IS ALL DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH VEERED
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BY 20-30 DEGREES OVER LAKE ERIE OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THE HRRR HAS A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS EVOLUTION
THUS FAR...AND HAS BEEN FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LAKE ERIE BAND THROUGH LATE MORNING.
WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT MOST OF THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN TO FOCUS
FROM THE CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY SHORELINE TO SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY FROM
DAYBREAK TO MID MORNING...THEN SHIFT BACK NORTH INTO BUFFALO BY
MIDDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST AGAIN. AFTER
18Z THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN WILL SHIFT FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NIAGARA
COUNTY AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE...FETCH
SHORTENS AS FLOW BECOMES MORE SSW...AND SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE
DECREASES.
AS FAR AS RAIN INTENSITY GOES...THE BAND MAY STILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY
AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE MOVEMENT OF THE BAND IS LIMITING ITS
RESIDENCE TIME OVER ANY ONE LOCATION...AND HAS REDUCED THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHERN
ERIE COUNTY FOR NOW AS SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN OF THE EVENT WILL
CROSS THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAIN TOTALS FROM NORTH
BUFFALO INTO TONAWANDA MAY EXCEED 2 INCHES. THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN AS A DEEP LAYER OF TEMPERATURES FAVORABLE FOR
GRAUPEL AND MIXED PHASE PRECIP REMAIN WITHIN THE LAKE INDUCED MIXED
LAYER. SOME GRAUPEL AND ICE PELLETS MAY CONTINUE TO REACH THE
SURFACE IN THE MORE INTENSE EMBEDDED CELLS.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...
LAKE EFFECT RAIN IS SPUTTERING IN COMPARISON WITH A NARROW BAND NEAR
WATERTOWN OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS BAND SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER
THROUGH MID MORNING AND LIFT BACK NORTH TO THE THOUSAND ISLANDS
REGION BEFORE WEAKENING BY MIDDAY. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS IN
THIS AREA...BUT A FEW SPOTS MAY PICK UP A QUARTER INCH OR SO AS THE
BAND LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF JEFFERSON COUNTY THIS
MORNING.
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS...AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS HAS MOVED INTO
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO SOME PARTIAL SUN THIS AFTERNOON. FROM THE FINGER LAKES
INTO CENTRAL NY SKIES WILL BE SUNNY THIS MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.
BY THIS EVENING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL HAVE BACKED TO THE SSW. ANY
REMAINING LIMITED LAKE EFFECT WILL BE FORCED ONTO THE CANADIAN SIDE
OF BOTH LAKES. THIS WILL LEAVE DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH VARYING
AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS COVER AS SEVERAL BATCHES OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION. THE CLOUDS AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE
BREEZE WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOMEWHAT...WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID 30S IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION. THIS SHOULD KEEP FROST
POTENTIAL TO A MINIMUM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REACHING ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CLOSED LOW CENTERED WEST OF JAMES BAY. THE
TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY SOME BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE STRONG UPPER
LOW BEGINS TO FILL AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH OF JAMES BAY.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL WORK SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEW
YORK STATE ON MONDAY...WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT ROTATES ACROSS
THE AREA. BEST LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL JUST CLIP WESTERN NEW
YORK...SO WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS FROM THE FINGER
LAKES WEST LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL ALSO BE SOMEWHAT
BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS DAYTIME MIXING TAPS INTO 30-40KT WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK...GIVING 20-30MPH GUSTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A
WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INTO WESTERN NEW YORK STATE
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
BE A BIT STRONGER...SO THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE.
850MB TEMPS WILL JUMP FROM +2C/+3C TO +6C/+7C DURING THE DAY MONDAY
THANKS TO THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH WILL BOOST HIGHS MONDAY
BACK INTO THE 60S...WITH UPPER 50S JUST RESERVED FOR OUR HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL HELP KEEP LOW TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT SOME TEN DEGREES WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...WITH SOME LOW 50S ALONG THE LAKESHORES.
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ALOFT AND ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION PUSH INTO EASTERN
NEW YORK BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS TO AGAIN BE IN THE 60S
ON TUESDAY AS THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS WITH THE
WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE STRONGEST IN THIS SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE AT THE SURFACE
A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A ROUND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS OUT
AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALLOW US TO HOLD ON TO ONE MORE NIGHT OF ABOVE AVERAGE
LOWS...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A VERY BROAD AND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER ONTARIO
WILL GRADUALLY FILL DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK...WHILE THE PARENT
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DE-AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SETS UP BY THURSDAY WITH A PERIOD OF CLEARING
SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE LOWER PLAINS ON
THURSDAY WILL ESTABLISH A STRONGER WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION BY
WEEKS END WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THE TEMPERATURE TREND
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH BE RATHER FLAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S...AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE KBUF TERMINAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. THE BAND WILL
MEANDER NORTH AND SOUTH AT TIMES BUT SHOULD RESIDE OVER THE KBUF
AIRFIELD MOST OF THE TIME. MVFR CIGS/VSBY WILL BE COMMON WITHIN THE
BAND OF RAIN WITH SOME BRIEF IFR WITHIN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL ALSO PRODUCE SNOW/ICE PELLETS FOR BRIEF PERIODS
OF TIME. THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN BAND SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT
NORTH BY 18Z WITH CONDITIONS AT KBUF IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE NORTHWARD SHIFTING LAKE BAND MAY PRODUCE A FEW HOURS
OF MVFR AT KIAG DURING THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO A WEAKER BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN WILL SPEND MOST
OF ITS TIME ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE BORDER THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CLIP THE
THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION NORTH OF KART AT TIMES.
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS UPSTREAM ACROSS OHIO MAY
SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT BY MIDDAY. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF
THE AREA TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON BOTH LAKES THROUGH
TODAY WITH MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PERSISTENT
ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO PROVINCE...AND THIS WILL KEEP MODERATE
WINDS IN PLACE MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MORE OFTEN THAN NOT.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATERSPOUTS
TODAY ON LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH A DEEP AND STRONG LAYER OF LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY. WATERSPOUTS ARE MOST COMMON IN AND NEAR BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND CLOUDS WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
VORTICITY ARE MAXIMIZED. INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING WHICH
SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ042>044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...FRANKLIN
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
211 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
800 PM UPDATE...
CHALLENGING FORECAST TONIGHT REGARDING FROST FORMATION. SEEMS LIKE
THESE HAZARDS ARE NEVER CLEAR CUT AROUND THESE PARTS.
QUITE A BIT OF MID DECK OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL ONLY SERVE TO
COMPLICATE TEMPS OVERNIGHT. DO THINK AS THE TROF AXIS LIFTS...S
HALF OF CWA WILL CLEAR OUT...WITH SOME CLEARING GRADUALLY WORKING
N INTO SE OH AND N WV LATE. THERE IS ALSO A WIND CONUNDRUM AS BL
WINDS STAY UP MOST OF THE NIGHT ACROSS SE OH AND N WV. THIS WOULD
TEND TO LIMIT FROST TO PROTECTED VALLEYS EVEN IF THERE IS CLEARING
LATE TONIGHT. AFTER BEEFING UP SKY GRIDS FOR TONIGHT AND
INCORPORATING HRRR TEMPS AS A BASE TO CAPTURE THE HILLS AND
HOLLOWS...ROLLED MORE WITH PATCHY VS WIDESPREAD IN SE OH AND N WV.
WILL KEEP FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES AS IS EVEN THOUGH NOT SURE N
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS HIT FREEZING MARK IF CLOUDS STAY. CAA SHOULD HAVE
NO PROBLEM WITH THE N MOUNTAIN RIDGES THOUGH. TOYED WITH ADDING
COAL FIELDS AND KANAWHA VALLEY TO FROST ADV BUT LAMP GUIDANCE AND
MET GUIDANCE AT KHTS/KCRW STAY GENERALLY ABOVE 37F WITH A HINT OF
A SURFACE WIND WITH NO INVERSION IN WEAK CAA. THIS WOULD PROBABLY
MITIGATE COUNTY WIDE AVERAGE GROUND FROST. DID PUT IN SOME FROST
IN THIS AREA FOR THE VALLEYS AND OUTLYING AREAS AS WIND SHOULD
SLACKEN THERE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
GUSTY WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES
ARE AFFECTING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THE ISOLATED
SHOWERS DROPPING SOME GRAUPEL. WIND SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FLIRT WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT. THE DEGREE IN WHICH WINDS EASE TONIGHT IS THE MAIN
FACTOR AS TO WHETHER OR NOT WE WOULD SEE FROST TONIGHT. LITTLE
MARGIN FOR ERROR HERE. IF WINDS DIE DOWN TOO MUCH WE COULD EASILY
SEE WIDESPREAD FROST AND MAYBE ISOLATED FREEZING IN SOME
LOCATIONS...SO DECIDED TO HOIST A FROST ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE KANAWHA VALLEY WHICH MAY BENEFIT
FROM SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FROM THE MORE SCATTERED DECK OF
CLOUDS TODAY. WILL LET THE EVENING SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER ONTARIO THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH
WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS SCENARIO WILL
BRING IMPULSES OF ENERGY OVER OUR AREA AS SEEN IN H5 VORTICITY
CHARTS. THEREFORE...KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY
INCREASING INTO MONDAY. FROM THIS LOW...A SERIES OF STRONG IMPULSES
WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY...CROSSING TUESDAY. THEREFORE...KEPT
LOW CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...INCREASING TO
CHANCE AND LIKELY LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS BECOME GENTLE TO STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY BRINGING A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
USED A BLEND OF ALL BLEND MOS AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER
OVER ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT AND START DRIFTING EAST INTO QUEBEC
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAKING SHORTWAVES TO TRACK FURTHER
NORTH...KEEPING THEIR INFLUENCE AWAY FROM OUR AREA BY MID WEEK.
THEREFORE...EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS BY MID WEEK.
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS OUT INTO
EASTERN CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE OH VALLEY THURSDAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT WILL SETTLE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN WV. THIS FRONT
COULD BRING LOW CHANCE FOR PCPN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
WENT WITH WPC TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUNDAY THRU 06Z MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST TODAY WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING
TONIGHT. VFR CLOUDS 6000-8000FT AGL MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL SCATTER OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SOUTH
WILL BE VFR MOSTLY CLEAR.
AFTER 21Z...VFR CLOUDS 6000-8000FT AGL WILL AGAIN INCREASE FROM THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST...BECOMING
VFR CEILINGS AND OVERSPREADING MOST OF THE AREA BY 06Z TONIGHT. ANY
SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED WITH VFR BEING
MAINTAINED.
WINDS WILL BE MAINTAINED SO THAT NO EARLY MORNING FOG IS EXPECTED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 10/05/14
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005-007>011-
016>020-028>037-039-040.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ038-046-047.
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
076-083>087.
KY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...30/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
142 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE BY TO THE
SOUTH ALLOWING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY
MONDAY. COLD FRONTS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN EARLY IN THE WEEK
AND AGAIN NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 140 AM...WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AND ONLY SPOTTY LOW CLOUDS
REMAIN ACROSS THE NC MTNS. THERE IS SOME CIRRUS MOVING OVERHEAD...
BUT THIS SHUD BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. TEMPS ARE RUNNING A TAD
COOLER THAN EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE LOWERED MINS
SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE. THIS PUTS THE NRN FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT IN
POSITION TO SEE PATCHY FROST OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...CHANGES MAINLY
FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.
EVENING UPDATE...WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO CALM DOWN IN RESPONSE TO A
BROADENING P/GRAD MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW SHALLOW/STEEP SFC INVERSIONS SETTING UP WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
VERY GOOD RAD COOLING OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES
A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR MINS AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FZ.W AREA...SO WILL LEAVE PRODUCT AS IS. THE FR.Y WAS LEFT IN PLACE
AS WELL...HOWEVER TDDS COULD BE A LITTLE HIGH FOR MUCH MORE THAN
PATCHY DEVELOPMENT.
730 PM EDT UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJ TO THE COOLER OBS HR/LY
TEMPS AND TD/S. OTHERWISE...FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
430 PM EDT UPDATE...A LEE TROF BISECTING THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON HAS
MAINTAINED A FAIRLY TIGHT P/GRAD WITH GUSTY CONDS IN GOOD VERTICAL
MIXING. WIND DIRECTIONS AND GUST MAGNITUDES HAVE BEEN VARIABLE NEAR
THE TROF AXIS...SO MADE SOME ADJS TO THE GOING WIND GRIDS.
AS OF 215 PM...THE AXIS OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME ESSENTIALLY ZONAL OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...CP HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST
WILL MOVE EAST AND REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. AS
THE HIGH MOVES EAST...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND ALLOW
WINDS TO DECOUPLE. THE CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE POINTS TO
AT LEAST SCATTERED AREAS OF FREEZING TEMPS ALL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. HENCE...WILL MAINTAIN THE EXISTING FREEZE
WARNING IN THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS...AND GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A
FREEZE WARNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE FREEZE
WATCH WAS IN PLACE. IT WILL BE CHILLY NIGHT AS WELL OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS WITH LOWS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE
FOOTHILLS...AND UPPER 30S IN THE NC PIEDMONT. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER HIGH...GENERALLY >5 DEGREES SO
WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION MAY BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY. HOWEVER...
WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY IN THE FOOTHILL COUNTIES/
ZONES ADJACENT TO THE FREEZE WARNINGS WHERE MIN TEMPS WILL REACH THE
MID 30S.
ON SUNDAY...DESPITE STRONG INSOLATION HIGH TEMPS ARE STILL FORECAST
TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AS THICKNESS RECOVERY WILL BE SLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL FEATURE A MEAN
LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD...
REINFORCED BY A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES OF VARYING INTENSITY. ONE OF
THESE WAVES MAY INSTIGATE FRONTOGENESIS ALONG LARGE SCALE BAROCLINIC
ZONE IN THE TENN/OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THE MON/TUE TIME FRAME.
THE SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE SOME DEGREE OF POSITIVE BUOYANCY WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TENN VALLEY DURING THIS TIME...AND EVEN
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...WHICH WOULD
POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW FAR EAST ANY ACTIVITY WILL
PROGRESS...AS IT IS LIKELY THAT THE MOST ROBUST INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE TENN VALLEY. NEVERTHELESS...WITH A DECENT AREA OF
MID/UPPER FORCING EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY/
EARLY TUE...CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN FEATURED MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FAVORED ALONG
THE TENN BORDER.
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER...ESP IN THE MID/HIGH LEVELS
BY TUE SHOULD OFFSET ANY INCREASES IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESS UNDER A
SLOWLY WEAKENING LONG WAVE TROUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...MODELS AGREE REASONABLY WELL ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AS
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE MEAN ERN TROUGH TUE NIGHT...THAT TROUGH
FILLS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL. A WEAK
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS OVER THE UPPER TENN
VALLEY...WITH THE 12Z GFS/CMC SHOWING IT PUSHING SOUTH ARRIVING IN
BACKDOOR FASHION WED/WED NIGHT WHILE THE 00Z EC JUST WASHES IT OUT.
THIS FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPS...WHICH UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAIN AROUND CLIMO WED-THU.
WEAK SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL BRIEFLY BEFORE ANOTHER
STRONGER FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE OH/TN VALLEYS. GFS/EC DEPICT THE
POSITION AND ORIENTATION OF THIS FRONT SIMILARLY...THOUGH THE GFS
CONTINUES TO FEATURE REMNANTS OF TC SIMON ENTERING THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WED AND SUBSEQUENTLY GETTING PICKED UP BY THE MIDLATITUDE
FLOW. THIS INTRODUCES VORT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE FRONT AND
LEADS TO A SFC WAVE MOVING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY NEXT SATURDAY. THE GFS IS CORRESPONDINGLY
SOMEWHAT WETTER. THIS SOLUTION IS BACKED UP BY A FAIR NUMBER OF NAEFS
MEMBERS. OVERALL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS POPS RAMPING UP BEGINNING THU
NIGHT AND PEAKING IN CHANCE RANGE SATURDAY. TEMPS SHOULD COOL A BIT
WITH THIS SECOND FROPA BUT REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...CALM WINDS AND FEW250 EXPECTED THRU MID MORNING. WINDS
PICK UP IN SPEED AND BECOME SWLY AROUND NOON WITH INCREASING CIRRUS.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT SLY THIS EVENING WITH THICKENING CIRRUS AND
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS KCLT. KAVL THE MAIN EXCEPTION
WHERE WINDS BECOME NWLY AFTER DAYBREAK...THEN SSW BY LATE AFTERNOON.
CALM WINDS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. OTHERS WILL SEE WLY WIND BECOMING
SWLY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND LIGHT OR CALM THIS EVENING. SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE AT KAVL AND KHKY BY DAYBREAK.
OUTLOOK...CHC OF CONVECTION INCREASES MON AND TUE WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. DRY WX WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WED AND THU.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-05Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 87% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ010.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-048>053-
058-059-062>065.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ501-503-
505>507-509.
SC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ001>003.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...LG/RWH/SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...RWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
933 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO THE MAX TEMPERATURES
SHOWING THEM TOPPING OUT THIS MORNING AND READINGS FALLING BACK
LATER THIS MORNING. 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRES MOVING
ACROSS NW MAINE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PINE TREE STATE.
THE 12Z RUN OF THE HRRR 3KM MODEL HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS AND
THE ANALYSIS BACKS THIS UP. THE FRONT WAS SLOWED INITIALLY AS THE
LOW PRES WAVE DEVELOPED ON THE FRONT SLOWING ITS FORWARD
PROGRESS. THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SOME
CLEARING MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MAINE AND LIFTING NORTH. THIS
CLEARING WILL MAKE ITS WAY NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
CLEARS NORTHERN AREAS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD TREK THIS MORNING AND WILL EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY IN THE MID 50S AND UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.
EXPECT SKIES WILL CLEAR QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT AS
LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE FAR NORTHWEST WHICH WILL DROP INTO THE
LOWER 30S, AND THE DOWNEAST COAST WHICH WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER
40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND GETS A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS IN A SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MAINE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN DEVELOPING WELL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FAST FLOW ALOFT UNDERNEATH A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL
DOMINATE LATE THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE TRAJECTORY AND PLACEMENT OF A LOW
AMPLITUDE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. WILL STICK WITH
THE SUPERBLEND CONSENSUS APPROACH.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD IFR DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE AND FOG
WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS MORNING.
EXPECT ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR BY 20Z AND REMAIN SO THEREAFTER.
SHORT TERM: IFR AND MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AT TAF SITES DUE TO LOW CLOUDS...RAIN AND FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED OUT TO 2 PM
SUNDAY. CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
ONCE THE OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES THROUGH, WAVES WILL BE SLOWER TO
RESPOND AND WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY NEEDED FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/OKULSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
732 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW FROM OVER NRN ONTARIO INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES. A WEAK UPSTREAM
SHRTWV LOCATED OVER FAR NE MN COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -4C
AND CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL WRLY FLOW SUPPORTED LAKE EFFECT PCPN FROM NEAR
M-38 INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
PREVAILED ACROSS THE CWA.
TODAY...AS THE MN SHRTWV MOVES TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER LARGER SHRTWV
SLIDES TO THE S THROUGH NW ONTARIO...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
WSW...SHIFTING THE LAKE EFFECT PCPN MAINLY OVER THE KEWEEAW. IN
ADDITION...MODELS AND UPSTREAM RAOBS SUGGEST SOME SFC-850 DRYING
ALONG WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAINING AROUND 4K-5K FT SHOULD BRING
A DIMINISHING TREND WITH THE PCPN. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS STILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FAR
ENOUG INLAND FROM THE WARMING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE WATER TEMPS WERE
STILL IN THE UPPER 40S.
TONIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN AS
850 MB TEMPS LINGER NEAR -3C WITH CONTINUED WSW LOW LEVEL FLOW.
WITHOUT ANY ENHANCING SHORTWAVES AND LESS FAVORABLE SFC-850 MB
MOISTURE UPSTREAM...ONLY SCT LAKE EFFECT SHRA/SHSN ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE KEWEENAW WITH LITTLE QPF(LESS THAN 0.05 INCH) AND NO SNOW
ACCUMULATON. WITH SOME CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS...MIN TEMPS
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S INLAND WEST HALF AND INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S EAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
THE LARGE 500MB TROUGH DOMINATING E CANADA AND THE E HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S. AT 12Z MONDAY WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE ZONAL
OVER THE U.S. FROM MID WEEK THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 500MB LOW
ITSELF WILL REMAIN ACROSS N MANITOBA OR N ONTARIO THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S. WE WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. AS A RESULT...MIXED MORNING PRECIP WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY.
THE MAIN TIME PERIODS OF INTEREST WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE 500MB LOW IS THE CLOSEST TO LAKE
SUPERIOR/UPPER MI. POPS MAY NEAR THE LIKELY CATEGORY OVER THE FAR W
MONDAY EVENING. TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY COULD BE BREEZY
ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WITH THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE SLOWLY EXITING LARGE SFC LOW...AND A RIDGE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE N PLAINS. WENT WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...WHICH RESULTED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/MORNING
SHOWERS SHOWERS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND NEARING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS AND S CENTRAL CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 727 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
AS THE FLOW BACKS TO THE SW TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL
HEATING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT CMX BUT SHOULD NOT DROP VSBY BLO
VFR. GUSTY WINDS AT WILL OCCUR WITH DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT THE GUSTS TO
DIMINISH ON SUN EVNG WITH THE LOSS OF THE MIXING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
A SURFACE LOW ROTATING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO
PERSISTENT AND GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS OF 15-30KTS DURING THAT
PERIOD. THIS LOW WILL SHIFT EAST INTO QUEBEC BY THURSDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ALLOWING WINDS
TO DIMINISH.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
946 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A CHILLY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ALSO
NEAR THE THOUSAND ISLANDS NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN WILL LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND END THIS EVENING
AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW
SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR AVERAGE EARLY
IN THE WORKWEEK BEFORE DROPPING BELOW AVERAGE AGAIN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ONGOING LAKE
EFFECT RAIN. LAKE INDUCED CAPE WILL BE NEAR 1200J/KG WITH
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 20K FEET THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY LOWERING THIS AFTERNOON.
OFF LAKE ERIE...
LAKE EFFECT RAIN HAS MADE A DECIDED SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SHIFT WAS WELL FORECAST BY THE CANADIAN
GEM FROM OVER 24 HOURS AGO...AND MORE RECENTLY THE HRRR MODEL. THE
LAKE EFFECT HAS BROKEN INTO TWO BANDS...WITH ONE STRETCHING FROM
NEAR KDKK TO WYOMING COUNTY...AND A SECOND FROM THE ASHTABULA COUNTY
SHORELINE TO SOUTHWEST CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. RECENT UPSTREAM RADAR
TRENDS SHOW THE WESTERN END OF THE BAND OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE BEGINNING TO SHIFT NORTH AGAIN AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BACKS MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. FOLLOWING THE MESOSCALE MODELS AND
ALSO UPSTREAM TRENDS...EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN TO SHIFT NORTH
BACK TOWARDS BUFFALO LATER THIS MORNING. IT SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS IT SHIFTS
FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NIAGARA COUNTY AND ENDS UP MAINLY ON THE
CANADIAN SIDE OF THE NIAGARA RIVER BY EVENING.
AS FAR AS RAIN INTENSITY GOES...THE BAND MAY STILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY
AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE MOVEMENT OF THE BAND IS LIMITING ITS
RESIDENCE TIME OVER ANY ONE LOCATION...AND HAS REDUCED THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHERN
ERIE COUNTY FOR NOW AS SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN OF THE EVENT WILL
CROSS THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAIN TOTALS FROM NORTH
BUFFALO INTO TONAWANDA MAY EXCEED 2 INCHES. THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN AS A DEEP LAYER OF TEMPERATURES FAVORABLE FOR
GRAUPEL AND MIXED PHASE PRECIP REMAIN WITHIN THE LAKE INDUCED MIXED
LAYER. SOME GRAUPEL AND ICE PELLETS MAY CONTINUE TO REACH THE
SURFACE IN THE MORE INTENSE EMBEDDED CELLS.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...
LAKE EFFECT RAIN IS SPUTTERING IN COMPARISON WITH A FEW SHOWERS NEAR
WATERTOWN AND THE THOUSAND ISLANDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ANYTHING
THAT REMAINS WILL LIFT BACK NORTH TO THE THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION
BEFORE WEAKENING BY MIDDAY. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS IN THIS
AREA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OR TWO.
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS...AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS HAS MOVED INTO
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO SOME PARTIAL SUN THIS AFTERNOON. FROM THE FINGER LAKES
INTO CENTRAL NY SKIES WILL BE SUNNY THIS MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.
BY THIS EVENING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL HAVE BACKED TO THE SSW. ANY
REMAINING LIMITED LAKE EFFECT WILL BE FORCED ONTO THE CANADIAN SIDE
OF BOTH LAKES. THIS WILL LEAVE DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH VARYING
AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS COVER AS SEVERAL BATCHES OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION. THE CLOUDS AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE
BREEZE WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOMEWHAT...WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID 30S IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION. THIS SHOULD KEEP FROST
POTENTIAL TO A MINIMUM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH REACHING ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CLOSED LOW LOCATED TO THE WEST OF
JAMES BAY. THE TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY SOME BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
THE STRONG UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH
OF JAMES BAY. OVERALL EXPECT SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER...AND SOME DRY
TIME BUILT IN FROM EARLY TO MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPS AVERAGING A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL WORK FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NEW YORK STATE ON MONDAY...WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT ROTATES
ACROSS THE AREA. BEST LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL JUST CLIP WESTERN
NEW YORK...SO WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS FROM THE
FINGER LAKES WEST FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL ALSO
BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS DAYTIME MIXING TAPS INTO
30-40KT WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK...TRANSLATING TO 20-30MPH GUSTS AT
THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT WILL THEN
PUSH INTO WESTERN NEW YORK MONDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE A BIT STRONGER...SO WILL KEEP
IN THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. 850MB TEMPS WILL JUMP FROM
+2C/+3C TO +6C/+7C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BOOST HIGHS
MONDAY BACK INTO THE 60S...WITH UPPER 50S RESERVED FOR JUST OUR
HIGHER TERRAIN. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
BOUNDARY WILL HELP KEEP LOW TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT SOME TEN DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S...WITH SOME LOW 50S ALONG THE LAKESHORES.
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ALOFT AND THE ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION PUSH INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA TO SEE A DRY SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO AGAIN BE IN
THE 60S ON TUESDAY AS THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS
WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE STRONGEST IN THIS SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A ROUND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS OUT
AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALLOW US TO HOLD ONTO ONE MORE NIGHT OF ABOVE AVERAGE
LOWS...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...HOWEVER MOST OF THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER HELPING TO LIMIT
RAINFALL CHANCES FOR THE MOST PART. THIS REGIME WILL KEEP COOLER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LOCKED IN ACROSS THE REGION.
A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL TAKE ANY
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH IT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL THEN RIDGE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE. EXPECT HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY GENERALLY IN THE 50S...WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
ON FRIDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL TRY TO
PUSH NORTHEAST TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER IT APPEARS AT
THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE
NOSING IN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP MOST
OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z GFS KEEP JUST
ABOUT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA AND POINTS SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THE 06Z GFS TRIES TO BRING A
FEW SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS THE NY/PA LINE VERY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR THE MOST PART. ONLY
EXCEPTION WOULD BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH COUNTRY WHERE A POTENT
SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL SKIRT THE NORTHERN NEW YORK/QUEBEC
BORDER...HOWEVER ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE LATE NEXT WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT RAIN WHICH HAS BEEN NEARLY
STATIONARY BETWEEN KDKK AND KBUF THIS MORNING SHOWING SIGNS OF
MOVING NORTH. THIS BAND WILL MOVE INTO KBUF BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z
AND REMAIN FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THIS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS. THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BAND IMPACTING THE KIAG BETWEEN 17Z AND
18Z...BUT SHOULD BE IN A WEAKENING STATE BY THAT TIME.
OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE
VSBYS WITHIN SOME PERIPHERAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
KJHW...KROC AND KART. IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY VFR WILL OCCUR AT
THESE SITE THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH PERIODS OF MID LEVEL CLOUD CROSSING
THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON BOTH LAKES THROUGH
TODAY WITH MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PERSISTENT
ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO PROVINCE...AND THIS WILL KEEP MODERATE
WINDS IN PLACE MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MORE OFTEN THAN NOT.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATERSPOUTS
TODAY ON LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH A DEEP AND STRONG LAYER OF LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY. WATERSPOUTS ARE MOST COMMON IN AND NEAR BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND CLOUDS WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
VORTICITY ARE MAXIMIZED. INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING WHICH
SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ042>044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/TMA
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
737 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A CHILLY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ALSO
NEAR THE THOUSAND ISLANDS NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN WILL LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND END THIS EVENING
AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW
SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR AVERAGE EARLY
IN THE WORKWEEK BEFORE DROPPING BELOW AVERAGE AGAIN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ONGOING LAKE
EFFECT RAIN. LAKE INDUCED CAPE WILL BE NEAR 1200J/KG WITH
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 20K FEET THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY LOWERING THIS AFTERNOON.
OFF LAKE ERIE...
LAKE EFFECT RAIN HAS MADE A DECIDED SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SHIFT WAS WELL FORECAST BY THE CANADIAN
GEM FROM OVER 24 HOURS AGO...AND MORE RECENTLY THE HRRR MODEL. THE
LAKE EFFECT HAS BROKEN INTO TWO BANDS...WITH ONE STRETCHING FROM
NEAR KDKK TO WYOMING COUNTY...AND A SECOND FROM THE ASHTABULA COUNTY
SHORELINE TO SOUTHWEST CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. RECENT UPSTREAM RADAR
TRENDS SHOW THE WESTERN END OF THE BAND OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE BEGINNING TO SHIFT NORTH AGAIN AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BACKS MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. FOLLOWING THE MESOSCALE MODELS AND
ALSO UPSTREAM TRENDS...EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN TO SHIFT NORTH
BACK TOWARDS BUFFALO LATER THIS MORNING. IT SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS IT SHIFTS
FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NIAGARA COUNTY AND ENDS UP MAINLY ON THE
CANADIAN SIDE OF THE NIAGARA RIVER BY EVENING.
AS FAR AS RAIN INTENSITY GOES...THE BAND MAY STILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY
AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE MOVEMENT OF THE BAND IS LIMITING ITS
RESIDENCE TIME OVER ANY ONE LOCATION...AND HAS REDUCED THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHERN
ERIE COUNTY FOR NOW AS SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN OF THE EVENT WILL
CROSS THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAIN TOTALS FROM NORTH
BUFFALO INTO TONAWANDA MAY EXCEED 2 INCHES. THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN AS A DEEP LAYER OF TEMPERATURES FAVORABLE FOR
GRAUPEL AND MIXED PHASE PRECIP REMAIN WITHIN THE LAKE INDUCED MIXED
LAYER. SOME GRAUPEL AND ICE PELLETS MAY CONTINUE TO REACH THE
SURFACE IN THE MORE INTENSE EMBEDDED CELLS.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...
LAKE EFFECT RAIN IS SPUTTERING IN COMPARISON WITH A FEW SHOWERS NEAR
WATERTOWN AND THE THOUSAND ISLANDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ANYTHING
THAT REMAINS WILL LIFT BACK NORTH TO THE THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION
BEFORE WEAKENING BY MIDDAY. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS IN THIS
AREA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OR TWO.
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS...AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS HAS MOVED INTO
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO SOME PARTIAL SUN THIS AFTERNOON. FROM THE FINGER LAKES
INTO CENTRAL NY SKIES WILL BE SUNNY THIS MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.
BY THIS EVENING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL HAVE BACKED TO THE SSW. ANY
REMAINING LIMITED LAKE EFFECT WILL BE FORCED ONTO THE CANADIAN SIDE
OF BOTH LAKES. THIS WILL LEAVE DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH VARYING
AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS COVER AS SEVERAL BATCHES OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION. THE CLOUDS AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE
BREEZE WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOMEWHAT...WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID 30S IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION. THIS SHOULD KEEP FROST
POTENTIAL TO A MINIMUM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH REACHING ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CLOSED LOW LOCATED TO THE WEST OF
JAMES BAY. THE TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY SOME BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
THE STRONG UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH
OF JAMES BAY. OVERALL EXPECT SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER...AND SOME DRY
TIME BUILT IN FROM EARLY TO MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPS AVERAGING A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL WORK FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NEW YORK STATE ON MONDAY...WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT ROTATES
ACROSS THE AREA. BEST LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL JUST CLIP WESTERN
NEW YORK...SO WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS FROM THE
FINGER LAKES WEST FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL ALSO
BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS DAYTIME MIXING TAPS INTO
30-40KT WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK...TRANSLATING TO 20-30MPH GUSTS AT
THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT WILL THEN
PUSH INTO WESTERN NEW YORK MONDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE A BIT STRONGER...SO WILL KEEP
IN THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. 850MB TEMPS WILL JUMP FROM
+2C/+3C TO +6C/+7C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BOOST HIGHS
MONDAY BACK INTO THE 60S...WITH UPPER 50S RESERVED FOR JUST OUR
HIGHER TERRAIN. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
BOUNDARY WILL HELP KEEP LOW TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT SOME TEN DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S...WITH SOME LOW 50S ALONG THE LAKESHORES.
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ALOFT AND THE ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION PUSH INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA TO SEE A DRY SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO AGAIN BE IN
THE 60S ON TUESDAY AS THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS
WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE STRONGEST IN THIS SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A ROUND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS OUT
AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALLOW US TO HOLD ONTO ONE MORE NIGHT OF ABOVE AVERAGE
LOWS...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...HOWEVER MOST OF THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER HELPING TO LIMIT
RAINFALL CHANCES FOR THE MOST PART. THIS REGIME WILL KEEP COOLER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LOCKED IN ACROSS THE REGION.
A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL TAKE ANY
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH IT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL THEN RIDGE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE. EXPECT HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY GENERALLY IN THE 50S...WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
ON FRIDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL TRY TO
PUSH NORTHEAST TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER IT APPEARS AT
THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE
NOSING IN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP MOST
OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z GFS KEEP JUST
ABOUT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA AND POINTS SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THE 06Z GFS TRIES TO BRING A
FEW SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS THE NY/PA LINE VERY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR THE MOST PART. ONLY
EXCEPTION WOULD BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHCOUNTRY WHERE A POTENT
SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL SKIRT THE NORTHERN NEW YORK/QUEBEC
BORDER...HOWEVER ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE LATE NEXT WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT RAIN HAS MOVED SOUTH INTO
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THIS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS
AND VSBY TO THE SOUTH OF KBUF DOWN TO NEAR KJHW THROUGH ABOUT
14Z-15Z. BY LATE MORNING THE BAND WILL MOVE BACK NORTH INTO THE KBUF
VCNTY AND PRODUCE ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE.
THIS AFTERNOON THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN WILL LIFT FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
KIAG AND WEAKEN...EVENTUALLY FALLING APART ACROSS THE NIAGARA
PENINSULA NORTH OF LAKE ERIE BY THIS EVENING.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO A WEAKER BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN WILL SPEND MOST
OF ITS TIME ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE BORDER THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CLIP THE
THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION NORTH OF KART AT TIMES.
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES THIS
MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON. VFR WILL
PREVAIL FROM KROC EASTWARD TO KFZY.
TONIGHT VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH PERIODS OF MID LEVEL CLOUD CROSSING
THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON BOTH LAKES THROUGH
TODAY WITH MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PERSISTENT
ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO PROVINCE...AND THIS WILL KEEP MODERATE
WINDS IN PLACE MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MORE OFTEN THAN NOT.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATERSPOUTS
TODAY ON LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH A DEEP AND STRONG LAYER OF LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY. WATERSPOUTS ARE MOST COMMON IN AND NEAR BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND CLOUDS WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
VORTICITY ARE MAXIMIZED. INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING WHICH
SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ042>044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
713 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A CHILLY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ALSO
NEAR THE THOUSAND ISLANDS NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN WILL LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND END THIS EVENING
AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW
SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR AVERAGE EARLY
IN THE WORKWEEK BEFORE DROPPING BELOW AVERAGE AGAIN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ONGOING LAKE
EFFECT RAIN. LAKE INDUCED CAPE WILL BE NEAR 1200J/KG WITH
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 20K FEET THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY LOWERING THIS AFTERNOON.
OFF LAKE ERIE...
A WIDE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
BAND NEVER REACHED A HIGH LEVEL OF ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT BUT HAS
PRODUCED SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN SUBURBS OF
BUFFALO AS EXPECTED. UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY FROM KCLE SHOWS A
DISTINCT KINK IN THE BAND...WITH A NEW EAST/WEST ORIENTED BAND OF
LAKE EFFECT RAIN FROM ASHTABULA OHIO TO SOUTHERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY.
MEANWHILE THE NORTHERN BAND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE THE
SOUTHERN BAND BECOMES DOMINANT. THIS IS ALL DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH VEERED
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BY 20-30 DEGREES OVER LAKE ERIE OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THE HRRR HAS A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS EVOLUTION
THUS FAR...AND HAS BEEN FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LAKE ERIE BAND THROUGH LATE MORNING.
WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT MOST OF THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN TO FOCUS
FROM THE CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY SHORELINE TO SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY FROM
DAYBREAK TO MID MORNING...THEN SHIFT BACK NORTH INTO BUFFALO BY
MIDDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST AGAIN. AFTER
18Z THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN WILL SHIFT FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NIAGARA
COUNTY AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE...FETCH
SHORTENS AS FLOW BECOMES MORE SSW...AND SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE
DECREASES.
AS FAR AS RAIN INTENSITY GOES...THE BAND MAY STILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY
AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE MOVEMENT OF THE BAND IS LIMITING ITS
RESIDENCE TIME OVER ANY ONE LOCATION...AND HAS REDUCED THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHERN
ERIE COUNTY FOR NOW AS SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN OF THE EVENT WILL
CROSS THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAIN TOTALS FROM NORTH
BUFFALO INTO TONAWANDA MAY EXCEED 2 INCHES. THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN AS A DEEP LAYER OF TEMPERATURES FAVORABLE FOR
GRAUPEL AND MIXED PHASE PRECIP REMAIN WITHIN THE LAKE INDUCED MIXED
LAYER. SOME GRAUPEL AND ICE PELLETS MAY CONTINUE TO REACH THE
SURFACE IN THE MORE INTENSE EMBEDDED CELLS.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...
LAKE EFFECT RAIN IS SPUTTERING IN COMPARISON WITH A NARROW BAND NEAR
WATERTOWN OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS BAND SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER
THROUGH MID MORNING AND LIFT BACK NORTH TO THE THOUSAND ISLANDS
REGION BEFORE WEAKENING BY MIDDAY. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS IN
THIS AREA...BUT A FEW SPOTS MAY PICK UP A QUARTER INCH OR SO AS THE
BAND LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF JEFFERSON COUNTY THIS
MORNING.
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS...AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS HAS MOVED INTO
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO SOME PARTIAL SUN THIS AFTERNOON. FROM THE FINGER LAKES
INTO CENTRAL NY SKIES WILL BE SUNNY THIS MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.
BY THIS EVENING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL HAVE BACKED TO THE SSW. ANY
REMAINING LIMITED LAKE EFFECT WILL BE FORCED ONTO THE CANADIAN SIDE
OF BOTH LAKES. THIS WILL LEAVE DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH VARYING
AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS COVER AS SEVERAL BATCHES OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION. THE CLOUDS AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE
BREEZE WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOMEWHAT...WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID 30S IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION. THIS SHOULD KEEP FROST
POTENTIAL TO A MINIMUM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH REACHING ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CLOSED LOW LOCATED TO THE WEST OF
JAMES BAY. THE TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY SOME BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
THE STRONG UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH
OF JAMES BAY. OVERALL EXPECT SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER...AND SOME DRY
TIME BUILT IN FROM EARLY TO MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPS AVERAGING A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL WORK FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NEW YORK STATE ON MONDAY...WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT ROTATES
ACROSS THE AREA. BEST LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL JUST CLIP WESTERN
NEW YORK...SO WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS FROM THE
FINGER LAKES WEST FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL ALSO
BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS DAYTIME MIXING TAPS INTO
30-40KT WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK...TRANSLATING TO 20-30MPH GUSTS AT
THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT WILL THEN
PUSH INTO WESTERN NEW YORK MONDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE A BIT STRONGER...SO WILL KEEP
IN THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. 850MB TEMPS WILL JUMP FROM
+2C/+3C TO +6C/+7C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BOOST HIGHS
MONDAY BACK INTO THE 60S...WITH UPPER 50S RESERVED FOR JUST OUR
HIGHER TERRAIN. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
BOUNDARY WILL HELP KEEP LOW TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT SOME TEN DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S...WITH SOME LOW 50S ALONG THE LAKESHORES.
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ALOFT AND THE ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION PUSH INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA TO SEE A DRY SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO AGAIN BE IN
THE 60S ON TUESDAY AS THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS
WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE STRONGEST IN THIS SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A ROUND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS OUT
AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALLOW US TO HOLD ONTO ONE MORE NIGHT OF ABOVE AVERAGE
LOWS...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...HOWEVER MOST OF THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER HELPING TO LIMIT
RAINFALL CHANCES FOR THE MOST PART. THIS REGIME WILL KEEP COOLER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LOCKED IN ACROSS THE REGION.
A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL TAKE ANY
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH IT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL THEN RIDGE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE. EXPECT HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY GENERALLY IN THE 50S...WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
ON FRIDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL TRY TO
PUSH NORTHEAST TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER IT APPEARS AT
THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE
NOSING IN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP MOST
OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z GFS KEEP JUST
ABOUT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA AND POINTS SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THE 06Z GFS TRIES TO BRING A
FEW SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS THE NY/PA LINE VERY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR THE MOST PART. ONLY
EXCEPTION WOULD BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHCOUNTRY WHERE A POTENT
SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL SKIRT THE NORTHERN NEW YORK/QUEBEC
BORDER...HOWEVER ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE LATE NEXT WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE KBUF TERMINAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. THE BAND WILL
MEANDER NORTH AND SOUTH AT TIMES BUT SHOULD RESIDE OVER THE KBUF
AIRFIELD MOST OF THE TIME. MVFR CIGS/VSBY WILL BE COMMON WITHIN THE
BAND OF RAIN WITH SOME BRIEF IFR WITHIN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL ALSO PRODUCE SNOW/ICE PELLETS FOR BRIEF PERIODS
OF TIME. THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN BAND SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT
NORTH BY 18Z WITH CONDITIONS AT KBUF IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE NORTHWARD SHIFTING LAKE BAND MAY PRODUCE A FEW HOURS
OF MVFR AT KIAG DURING THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO A WEAKER BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN WILL SPEND MOST
OF ITS TIME ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE BORDER THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CLIP THE
THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION NORTH OF KART AT TIMES.
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS UPSTREAM ACROSS OHIO MAY
SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT BY MIDDAY. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF
THE AREA TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON BOTH LAKES THROUGH
TODAY WITH MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PERSISTENT
ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO PROVINCE...AND THIS WILL KEEP MODERATE
WINDS IN PLACE MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MORE OFTEN THAN NOT.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATERSPOUTS
TODAY ON LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH A DEEP AND STRONG LAYER OF LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY. WATERSPOUTS ARE MOST COMMON IN AND NEAR BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND CLOUDS WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
VORTICITY ARE MAXIMIZED. INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING WHICH
SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ042>044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
144 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW FROM OVER NRN ONTARIO INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES. A WEAK UPSTREAM
SHRTWV LOCATED OVER FAR NE MN COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -4C
AND CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL WRLY FLOW SUPPORTED LAKE EFFECT PCPN FROM NEAR
M-38 INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
PREVAILED ACROSS THE CWA.
TODAY...AS THE MN SHRTWV MOVES TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER LARGER SHRTWV
SLIDES TO THE S THROUGH NW ONTARIO...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
WSW...SHIFTING THE LAKE EFFECT PCPN MAINLY OVER THE KEWEEAW. IN
ADDITION...MODELS AND UPSTREAM RAOBS SUGGEST SOME SFC-850 DRYING
ALONG WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAINING AROUND 4K-5K FT SHOULD BRING
A DIMINISHING TREND WITH THE PCPN. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS STILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FAR
ENOUG INLAND FROM THE WARMING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE WATER TEMPS WERE
STILL IN THE UPPER 40S.
TONIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN AS
850 MB TEMPS LINGER NEAR -3C WITH CONTINUED WSW LOW LEVEL FLOW.
WITHOUT ANY ENHANCING SHORTWAVES AND LESS FAVORABLE SFC-850 MB
MOISTURE UPSTREAM...ONLY SCT LAKE EFFECT SHRA/SHSN ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE KEWEENAW WITH LITTLE QPF(LESS THAN 0.05 INCH) AND NO SNOW
ACCUMULATON. WITH SOME CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS...MIN TEMPS
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S INLAND WEST HALF AND INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S EAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
THE LARGE 500MB TROUGH DOMINATING E CANADA AND THE E HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S. AT 12Z MONDAY WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE ZONAL
OVER THE U.S. FROM MID WEEK THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 500MB LOW
ITSELF WILL REMAIN ACROSS N MANITOBA OR N ONTARIO THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S. WE WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. AS A RESULT...MIXED MORNING PRECIP WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY.
THE MAIN TIME PERIODS OF INTEREST WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE 500MB LOW IS THE CLOSEST TO LAKE
SUPERIOR/UPPER MI. POPS MAY NEAR THE LIKELY CATEGORY OVER THE FAR W
MONDAY EVENING. TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY COULD BE BREEZY
ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WITH THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE SLOWLY EXITING LARGE SFC LOW...AND A RIDGE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE N PLAINS. WENT WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...WHICH RESULTED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/MORNING
SHOWERS SHOWERS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND NEARING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS AND S CENTRAL CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
VFR TO HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS ARE INFLUENCING ALL THREE SITES
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER AND SURFACE LOW IN NORTHERN ONTARIO. EXPECT THE BORDERLINE
MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT KCMX/KSAW FOR THE FIRST COUPLE
HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD...BEFORE DRIER AIR THAT IS ALREADY NEARING
KIWD AND DIURNAL HEATING PRODUCES VFR CEILINGS. LAKE EFFECT RAIN
(AND OCCASIONAL SNOW) SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KCMX AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. THE
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...ALLOWING CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AT KIWD/KSAW TONIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY KCMX MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL
ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014
A SURFACE LOW ROTATING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO
PERSISTENT AND GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS OF 15-30KTS DURING THAT
PERIOD. THIS LOW WILL SHIFT EAST INTO QUEBEC BY THURSDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ALLOWING WINDS
TO DIMINISH.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
525 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014
A long wave trough over eastern North America will remain in place
early in the week. A couple of disturbances will move southeast
through the region and with a nw-se oriented baroclinic zone in
place, will see some increased isentropic ascent as times with
chances for some chances for showers. The best chances look to be
over the northeast portion of the cwfa.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014
We will see a gradual upper level pattern change as the high
latitude upper low north of the Great Lakes shifts off to the east
and a split, more progressive, upper flow pattern develops over
the central CONUS. Increased moisture will spread north and
northeast into the area with a sharpening west-east warm front
lifting into the region Wed-Thu. An almost "backdoorish" front drops
south through the region Thu night into Fri as Canadian high
pressure pushes south into the northern Plains and upper Midwest.
We have fairly high rain chances in the forecast Wed night through
Fri but chances will continue into the weekend as the front tries
to lift back to the north as another shortwave moves into the
central and southern Plains.
Overall weather related impacts: We will need to watch the potential
for mounting rainfall totals and convection/tstm chances later in
the week. Heavier rain chances look to be Thu-Fri with the frontal
boundary pushing back to the south.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 521 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014
Shortwave was swinging southeast through Kansas early this evening
with regional radars showing some widely scattered shower activity
in association with this feature. Will probably see some increase
in mid level cloudiness this evening as this moves into the area
with a few sprinkles possible. Will carry VCSH wording in TAFS,
but have brought this in sooner than 18z tafs, and more in line
with HRRR which would start activity after 03-04z timeframe.
Expecting VFR conditions through the period.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg