Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/04/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1044 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH THE SHOWERS TAPERING OFF DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IS ON ITS WAY.
SHOWERS HAVE REACHED THE WESTERN REACHES OF THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA AND CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WELL AHEAD
OF THE OCCLUDING BOUNDARY. THE HRRR 3-KM AND HIRESWRF MESOSCALE
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INCREASING THE SHOWERS
ACTIVITY AS IT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT AND BRINGING THE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WORKS INTO THE AREA.
IT WILL BE MILD OVERNIGHT A SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE PERSISTS AND CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVING THERE COULD BE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION
WILL LIKELY PREVENT THESE GUSTS FROM MIXING TO THE VALLEY FLOOR
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE TROUGH AND OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR WESTERN AREAS BY
MIDDAY...REACHING THE HUDSON VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND OUR
EASTERN ZONES BY THE EVENING.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY STAY JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION...BUT MIGHT
SNEAK NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
SHOWALTER INDEX (WHICH IS IN THE INSTABILITY BETWEEN H850 AND THE
H500 LEVEL) LOOKS TO APPROACH ZERO IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS MEANS
THIS AREA COULD BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ALOFT SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA ONLY. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES FORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND TAP INTO
THE ROBUST WIND FIELD TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 40-50 MPH. SO...WE WILL
ALSO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS.
PWATS LOOK TO REACH 1.5 INCHES EARLY ON SATURDAY...MAINLY FROM THE
HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
RAIN (EVEN IF THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT MATERIALIZE). FOR THE MOST
PART...THIS WILL BE A BENEFICIAL RAINFALL SINCE MANY AREAS HAVE NOT
HAD A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SINCE SEPTEMBER 16TH.
THE SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY EXIT OUR WESTERN ZONES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABLY NOT CLEAR THE HUDSON VALLEY AND ESPECIALLY
AREAS EAST UNTIL AROUND DARK.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD TO THE
60S...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH.
THE WIND ON SATURDAY WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE VALLEYS...5-15
MPH. AN INVERSION LOOKS TO HOLD AND SHOULD PREVENT GUSTS MUCH
STRONGER THAN THAT. HOWEVER...DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A 45 LOW
LEVEL KT JET MOVES THROUGH...THE WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 45 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.
WE DID NOT PUT UP ANY WIND ADVISORIES SINCE IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL
FALL JUST SHORT OF THE WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD. HOWEVER WE WILL
MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE IN THE H.W.O. SINCE IT IS STILL
POSSIBLE ONE MIGHT BE NEEDED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE LOW LEVEL JET ACTUALLY LOOKS TO MOVE ON THROUGH BY LATE IN THE
DAY.
AFTER A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY EAST EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...
CLEARING WILL FOLLOW LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AS A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS
WORKS IN FROM THE WSW. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM AROUND +12C
EARLY SATURDAY...TO ABOUT 0C BY SUNDAY MORNING! THEO ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THE CLEARING WILL BE THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COMBINATION OF AN
UPSLOPE FLOW AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WILL
KEEP CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS GOING. IT MIGHT EVEN BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE GRAUPEL OR EVEN THE SEASON/S FIRST
FLURRIES. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA IT WILL JUST TURN SEASONABLY
CHILLY.
LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 40 IN THE VALLEYS...30S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...CLOSE TO FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS.
THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE WEST OR SOUTHEAST 5-15 MPH...DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ADIRONDACKS...SUNDAY SHOULD A DRY DAY
STARTING OUT WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
THOSE PERSISTENT CLOUDS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WITH THE COOL AIR
ALOFT...EXCEPT SCATTERED TO BROKEN INSTABILITY CLOUDS TO FORM...MORE
SO OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW THESE COULD REAP A SPRINKLE BUT
THAT WOULD BE ABOUT IT. THERE COULD BE "MEASURABLE" SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH PERHAPS SOME EARLY MORNING GRAUPEL OR WET SNOW
FLAKES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 IN THE
VALLEYS...ONLY UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
THE WIND WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH...WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND QUITE CHILLY. MANY AREAS
TO NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY LOOK TO HAVE POTENTIAL FROST AND OR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES. EVEN FROM ALBANY AND POINTS SOUTH AND
EAST...SOME SPOTTY FROST IS POSSIBLE WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.
MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PUMP SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR OUR WAY. IT WILL TURN RATHER BREEZY AND THE
WARMUP WILL NOT BE ALL THE ROBUST WITH HIGHS ONLY 60-65 IN THE
VALLEYS...55-60 HIGHER TERRAIN.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN CENTRAL CANADA WILL STARTING POOLING
MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS BRINGING A STRAY SHOWER TO THE ADIRONDACKS BEFORE DAY/S
END.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT STILL APPEARS OUR WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH SETTING UP TO OUR WEST...AT LEAST DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL RELAX BY LATE NEXT
WEEK...A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL EXIST NEAR OUR REGION KEEPING
THE WEATHER POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
A SOUTHWESTERLY INCREASINGLY MOIST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF MORE
SHOWERS.
ANOTHER WEAKER OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT KEEPING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AND COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BUT SINCE WE WILL
REMAIN IN A CYCLONIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
BY FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPRAWLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH. WARMER AIR
WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE BACK FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BUT AT THE
SAME TIME...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD FROM
CANADA. AT THIS POINT...THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT IS NOT CERTAIN
SO FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH IT THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH IS STRONG...WE
COULD SQUEAK BY THE DAY FRIDAY WITH MILD DRY CONDITIONS.
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM LOWER 60S TO AROUND 70
TUESDAY...UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND MID
60S TO LOWER 70S FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE REACHED THE WESTERN REACHES OF THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA AND CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WELL AHEAD
OF THE OCCLUDING BOUNDARY. THE HRRR 3-KM AND HIRESWRF MESOSCALE
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INCREASING THE SHOWERS
ACTIVITY AS IT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT AND BRINGING THE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WORKS INTO THE AREA.
HAVE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM BOTH WEST AND EAST. WIDESPREAD
MVFR WILL DEVELOP WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR AS CEILINGS
LOWER. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
BEGINNING BY AROUND 09Z AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU AND A COUPLE HOURS
LATER AT KPSF. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH A PERIOD OF VERY SHOWERS AS THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH LATE IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY
IMPROVEMENT TO ONLY MVFR IS EXPECTED BY 00Z/SUNDAY.
SOUTHEAST-EAST WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING OCCLUDED BOUNDARY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WITH ITS PASSAGE.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA IN THE EVNG.
SUN-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA
TUE-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FINALLY...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL GET A SOAKING RAIN ON SATURDAY WITH
ALL AREAS EXPECTING A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL OR MORE. WE ASSIGNED
A "WET FLAG" TO ALL OUR NFDRS FORECAST ON SATURDAY FOR THIS VERY
REASON. A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. DRIER COOLER WILL RETURN ON
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS A LARGE TROUGH
SETS UP TO OUR WEST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT LESS THAN 15 MPH...BUT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTERN CATSKILLS COULD SEE GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THE SOUTH WINDS
5-15 MPH WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN POSSIBLY
REACHING UP BRIEFLY UP TO 45 MPH.
SUNDAY...THE WIND WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST GENERALLY 5-15
MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A LINE OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CONTAINING MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
SOUTH OF ALBANY.
PROJECTED RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH
TO AROUND AN INCH...HIGHEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MIGHT BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM.
OVERALL THIS WILL BE AN EXTREMELY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL SINCE IT IS
HAS BEEN OVER TWO WEEKS SINCE MUCH OF THE REGION HAS SEEN A
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. SINCE IT HAS BEEN SO DRY OF LATE...THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE NO RESPONSE TO WATERSHEDS.
RAINFALL RATES MIGHT BRIEFLY BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADS AND AREAS WHERE DRAINS GET CLOGGED.
EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...THE RAIN
WILL BE OVER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY TUESDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
839 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH THE SHOWERS TAPERING OFF DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IS ON ITS WAY.
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WELL
AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE SYSTEM WILL OCCLUDED AS
IT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR 3-KM AND HIRESWRF MESOSCALE
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INCREASING THE SHOWERS
ACTIVITY AS IT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT AND BRINGING THE SHOWERS INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT SATURDAY MORNING AS THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WORKS INTO THE AREA.
IT WILL BE QUITE MILD DUE TO A PERSISTENT BREEZE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING CLOUDS.
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVING THERE COULD BE GUSTY WINDS REACHING 30
MPH OR BETTER INITIALLY ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL LIKELY PREVENT
THESE GUSTS FROM MIXING TO THE VALLEY FLOOR OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE TROUGH AND OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR WESTERN AREAS BY
MIDDAY...REACHING THE HUDSON VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND OUR
EASTERN ZONES BY THE EVENING.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY STAY JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION...BUT MIGHT
SNEAK NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
SHOWALTER INDEX (WHICH IS IN THE INSTABILITY BETWEEN H850 AND THE
H500 LEVEL) LOOKS TO APPROACH ZERO IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS MEANS
THIS AREA COULD BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ALOFT SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA ONLY. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES FORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND TAP INTO
THE ROBUST WIND FIELD TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 40-50 MPH. SO...WE WILL
ALSO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS.
PWATS LOOK TO REACH 1.5 INCHES EARLY ON SATURDAY...MAINLY FROM THE
HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
RAIN (EVEN IF THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT MATERIALIZE). FOR THE MOST
PART...THIS WILL BE A BENEFICIAL RAINFALL SINCE MANY AREAS HAVE NOT
HAD A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SINCE SEPTEMBER 16TH.
THE SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY EXIT OUR WESTERN ZONES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABLY NOT CLEAR THE HUDSON VALLEY AND ESPECIALLY
AREAS EAST UNTIL AROUND DARK.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD TO THE
60S...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH.
THE WIND ON SATURDAY WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE VALLEYS...5-15
MPH. AN INVERSION LOOKS TO HOLD AND SHOULD PREVENT GUSTS MUCH
STRONGER THAN THAT. HOWEVER...DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A 45 LOW
LEVEL KT JET MOVES THROUGH...THE WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 45 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.
WE DID NOT PUT UP ANY WIND ADVISORIES SINCE IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL
FALL JUST SHORT OF THE WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD. HOWEVER WE WILL
MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE IN THE H.W.O. SINCE IT IS STILL
POSSIBLE ONE MIGHT BE NEEDED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE LOW LEVEL JET ACTUALLY LOOKS TO MOVE ON THROUGH BY LATE IN THE
DAY.
AFTER A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY EAST EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...
CLEARING WILL FOLLOW LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AS A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS
WORKS IN FROM THE WSW. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM AROUND +12C
EARLY SATURDAY...TO ABOUT 0C BY SUNDAY MORNING! THEO ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THE CLEARING WILL BE THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COMBINATION OF AN
UPSLOPE FLOW AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WILL
KEEP CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS GOING. IT MIGHT EVEN BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE GRAUPEL OR EVEN THE SEASON/S FIRST
FLURRIES. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA IT WILL JUST TURN SEASONABLY
CHILLY.
LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 40 IN THE VALLEYS...30S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...CLOSE TO FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS.
THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE WEST OR SOUTHEAST 5-15 MPH...DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ADIRONDACKS...SUNDAY SHOULD A DRY DAY
STARTING OUT WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
THOSE PERSISTENT CLOUDS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WITH THE COOL AIR
ALOFT...EXCEPT SCATTERED TO BROKEN INSTABILITY CLOUDS TO FORM...MORE
SO OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW THESE COULD REAP A SPRINKLE BUT
THAT WOULD BE ABOUT IT. THERE COULD BE "MEASURABLE" SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH PERHAPS SOME EARLY MORNING GRAUPEL OR WET SNOW
FLAKES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 IN THE
VALLEYS...ONLY UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
THE WIND WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH...WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND QUITE CHILLY. MANY AREAS
TO NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY LOOK TO HAVE POTENTIAL FROST AND OR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES. EVEN FROM ALBANY AND POINTS SOUTH AND
EAST...SOME SPOTTY FROST IS POSSIBLE WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.
MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PUMP SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR OUR WAY. IT WILL TURN RATHER BREEZY AND THE
WARMUP WILL NOT BE ALL THE ROBUST WITH HIGHS ONLY 60-65 IN THE
VALLEYS...55-60 HIGHER TERRAIN.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN CENTRAL CANADA WILL STARTING POOLING
MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS BRINGING A STRAY SHOWER TO THE ADIRONDACKS BEFORE DAY/S
END.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT STILL APPEARS OUR WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH SETTING UP TO OUR WEST...AT LEAST DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL RELAX BY LATE NEXT
WEEK...A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL EXIST NEAR OUR REGION KEEPING
THE WEATHER POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
A SOUTHWESTERLY INCREASINGLY MOIST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF MORE
SHOWERS.
ANOTHER WEAKER OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT KEEPING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AND COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BUT SINCE WE WILL
REMAIN IN A CYCLONIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
BY FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPRAWLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH. WARMER AIR
WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE BACK FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BUT AT THE
SAME TIME...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD FROM
CANADA. AT THIS POINT...THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT IS NOT CERTAIN
SO FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH IT THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH IS STRONG...WE
COULD SQUEAK BY THE DAY FRIDAY WITH MILD DRY CONDITIONS.
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM LOWER 60S TO AROUND 70
TUESDAY...UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND MID
60S TO LOWER 70S FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WELL
AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE SYSTEM WILL OCCLUDED AS
IT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR 3-KM AND HIRESWRF MESOSCALE
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INCREASING THE SHOWERS
ACTIVITY AS IT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT AND BRINGING THE SHOWERS INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT SATURDAY MORNING AS THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WORKS INTO THE AREA.
HAVE CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM BOTH WEST AND EAST. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MVFR WILL DEVELOP WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR AS CEILINGS
LOWER. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING
BY AROUND 09Z AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU AND A COUPLE HOURS LATER AT
KPSF. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH A
PERIOD OF VERY SHOWERS AS THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH LATE
IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY IMPROVEMENT TO ONLY
MVFR IS EXPECTED BY 00Z/SUNDAY.
SOUTHEAST-EAST WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING OCCLUDED BOUNDARY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WITH ITS PASSAGE.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA IN THE EVNG.
SUN-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA
TUE-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FINALLY...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL GET A SOAKING RAIN ON SATURDAY WITH
ALL AREAS EXPECTING A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL OR MORE. WE ASSIGNED
A "WET FLAG" TO ALL OUR NFDRS FORECAST ON SATURDAY FOR THIS VERY
REASON. A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. DRIER COOLER WILL RETURN ON
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS A LARGE TROUGH
SETS UP TO OUR WEST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT LESS THAN 15 MPH...BUT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTERN CATSKILLS COULD SEE GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THE SOUTH WINDS
5-15 MPH WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN POSSIBLY
REACHING UP BRIEFLY UP TO 45 MPH.
SUNDAY...THE WIND WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST GENERALLY 5-15
MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A LINE OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CONTAINING MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
SOUTH OF ALBANY.
PROJECTED RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH
TO AROUND AN INCH...HIGHEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MIGHT BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM.
OVERALL THIS WILL BE AN EXTREMELY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL SINCE IT IS
HAS BEEN OVER TWO WEEKS SINCE MUCH OF THE REGION HAS SEEN A
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. SINCE IT HAS BEEN SO DRY OF LATE...THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE NO RESPONSE TO WATERSHEDS.
RAINFALL RATES MIGHT BRIEFLY BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADS AND AREAS WHERE DRAINS GET CLOGGED.
EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...THE RAIN
WILL BE OVER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY TUESDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
129 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BRIEFLY IN ITS WAKE THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE AT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST ADJUSTED TO CURRENT OBSERVATION AND TRENDS. RAIN CONFINED TO
THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND DRIFTING WEST SOUTHWEST. ELSEWHERE
IT`S DRY WITH SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE. THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND REMOVED POPS ELSEWHERE.
LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THE IDEA THAT PCPN DISSIPATES BY LATE
MORNING. THUS HAVE RAPIDLY LOWERED POPS FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND.
OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY PIVOTING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST. ASSOCIATED VORT MAX ALMOST STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH THE 00Z MODELS SUGGESTING IT PUSHING TO THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING...THEN PUSHING OFFSHORE TO THE EAST AS THE LOW SLIPS
TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NE FLOW WILL KEEP A FAIRLY MOIST
LOWER LEVEL IN PLACE BUT GENERALLY THINKING THE LOSS OF FORCING
ALOFT WILL MINIMIZE THE PCPN CHANCES.
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HIGH TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AS WEAK WAA WOULD
SUGGEST TEMPS COULD PUSH NEAR NORMAL. HOWEVER...CLOUDY SKIES AND
PERSISTENT NE FLOW COULD KEEP TEMPS ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER SIDE.
SIDED MORE WITH THE MAV GUIDANCE TO REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING PCPN BY THIS EVENING SHOULD BE OFFSHORE SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND WITH DRY WX THEN ON TAP THROUGH FRIDAY. A SLIVER OF
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA TONIGHT/FRIDAY
BEFORE RETREATING ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN AS WELL
DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SO
SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES FOR A SHORT PERIOD LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN STREAMING IN AHEAD OF THE
LOW. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN WITH THE HIGH AS WELL...NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE FORM OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
HAVE MORE OF A HANDLE ON TEMPS FOR TONIGHT/TOMORROW...USING
GENERALLY A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE. TEMPS TONIGHT EXPECTED
TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON FRIDAY AND WAA...SHOULD SEE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALL NWP GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT WITH A COLD FROPA ON
SATURDAY. PCPN MOVES IN FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING AND EXITS IN
THE AFTN WITH CLEARING QUICKLY DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY EVENING.
HAVE CUT PREVIOUS FORECAST QPF IN COORDINATION WITH RIVER FORECAST
CENTERS. EXPECTING AROUND 1/2 INCH WITH 3/4 INCH UP IN THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY. NO HYDRO ISSUES EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CLOUDS START INCREASING LATE
MONDAY WITH WAA. OVER-RUNNING PATTERN CONTINUES ON TUES WITH CHC
POPS FOR LGT RA. WEAK AND DIFFUSE COLD FROPA PASSAGE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. HAVE MADE IT DRY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TIMING OF COLD FROPA.
LOWERED TEMPS AND MADE FOR NON-DIURNAL PATTERN ON SATURDAY WITH THE
PCPN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...BUT WE QUICKLY RETURN TO NORMAL
ON MONDAY AND THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
NO HAZARDS FORESEEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF CAPE COD WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.
MVFR CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO VFR AFTER 19Z FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. VFR CONDS THEREAFTER WITH N-NE FLOW 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS
VEER TO THE E AND POSSIBLY SE OVER CITY TERMINALS THIS EVENING
BEFORE BACKING TO THE NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SPEEDS BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AND WIND SHIFT
TO THE E COULD BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AND WIND SHIFT
TO THE ESE COULD BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AND WIND SHIFT
TO THE ESE COULD BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR UNTIL
20Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR UNTIL
20Z.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR COULD BE OFF BY
+/- AN HOUR OR TWO.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRI THROUGH TUE...
.FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE LATE AT THE NYC METRO AND LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS.
.SAT...RAIN WITH IFR CONDS AND SE WINDS 15-20G25KT FOLLOWED BY VFR
CONDS AND W WIND G20KT LATE.
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS G25KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. W WINDS G20KT.
.MON-TUE...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
MINIMAL SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS LESS THE
GREAT SOUTH BAY...NY HARBOR AND THE WESTERN SOUND AS NE FLOW
INCREASES BETWEEN THE LOW OFFSHORE AND THE HIGH DIGGING DOWN FROM
THE NORTH. GUSTS BETWEEN 23 TO 28 KT EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
TODAY...THEN DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
WITH HIGH BUILDING FURTHER OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILD TODAY WITH
THE STRENGTHENING FLOW...WITH 5-9 FT POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
OCNL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT FOR THE BAYS AND LONG ISLAND SOUND. THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
NOT ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS TIME OVER THOSE WATERS. STILL
EXPECTING GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS ABOVE 5 FT ON THE OCEAN...AND
IN FACT EXPECTING THE 5 FT SEAS TO CONTINUE SO EXTENDED THE SCA
OVER THE OCEAN FOR FRIDAY.
ON THE OCEAN...SCA CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED THRU NEXT WED...WITH
PERHAPS A BRIEF RESPITE FOR PORTIONS OF MON. ELSEWHERE...25KT
WINDS POSSIBLE SAT-SUN BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A CDFNT. OTHERWISE
THEY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI EVENING. EXPECTING
AROUND 1/2 INCH WITH 3/4 UP IN THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
340.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/SEARS/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...TONGUE
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/TONGUE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
753 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BRIEFLY IN ITS WAKE THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE AT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST ADJUSTED TO CURRENT OBSERVATION AND TRENDS. RAIN CONFINED TO
THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND DRIFTING WEST SOUTHWEST. ELSEWHERE
IT`S DRY WITH SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE. THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND REMOVED POPS ELSEWHERE.
LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THE IDEA THAT PCPN DISSIPATES BY LATE
MORNING. THUS HAVE RAPIDLY LOWERED POPS FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND.
OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY PIVOTING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST. ASSOCIATED VORT MAX ALMOST STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH THE 00Z MODELS SUGGESTING IT PUSHING TO THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING...THEN PUSHING OFFSHORE TO THE EAST AS THE LOW SLIPS
TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NE FLOW WILL KEEP A FAIRLY MOIST
LOWER LEVEL IN PLACE BUT GENERALLY THINKING THE LOSS OF FORCING
ALOFT WILL MINIMIZE THE PCPN CHANCES.
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HIGH TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AS WEAK WAA WOULD
SUGGEST TEMPS COULD PUSH NEAR NORMAL. HOWEVER...CLOUDY SKIES AND
PERSISTENT NE FLOW COULD KEEP TEMPS ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER SIDE.
SIDED MORE WITH THE MAV GUIDANCE TO REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING PCPN BY THIS EVENING SHOULD BE OFFSHORE SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND WITH DRY WX THEN ON TAP THROUGH FRIDAY. A SLIVER OF
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA TONIGHT/FRIDAY
BEFORE RETREATING ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN AS WELL
DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SO
SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES FOR A SHORT PERIOD LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN STREAMING IN AHEAD OF THE
LOW. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN WITH THE HIGH AS WELL...NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE FORM OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
HAVE MORE OF A HANDLE ON TEMPS FOR TONIGHT/TOMORROW...USING
GENERALLY A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE. TEMPS TONIGHT EXPECTED
TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON FRIDAY AND WAA...SHOULD SEE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALL NWP GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT WITH A COLD FROPA ON
SATURDAY. PCPN MOVES IN FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING AND EXITS IN
THE AFTN WITH CLEARING QUICKLY DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY EVENING.
HAVE CUT PREVIOUS FORECAST QPF IN COORDINATION WITH RIVER FORECAST
CENTERS. EXPECTING AROUND 1/2 INCH WITH 3/4 INCH UP IN THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY. NO HYDRO ISSUES EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CLOUDS START INCREASING LATE
MONDAY WITH WAA. OVER-RUNNING PATTERN CONTINUES ON TUES WITH CHC
POPS FOR LGT RA. WEAK AND DIFFUSE COLD FROPA PASSAGE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. HAVE MADE IT DRY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TIMING OF COLD FROPA.
LOWERED TEMPS AND MADE FOR NON-DIURNAL PATTERN ON SATURDAY WITH THE
PCPN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...BUT WE QUICKLY RETURN TO NORMAL
ON MONDAY AND THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
NO HAZARDS FORESEEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WELL E OF CAPE COD WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE AREA MOVES TO THE EAST...
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD DOWN FROM NEW ENGLAND.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD TODAY...NOT LIFTING TO VFR UNTIL
19Z-22Z FROM WEST TO EAST. N-NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT
THIS MORNING...WITH AN OCNL GUST UP TO 20 KT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST...THEN DIMINISHING TO UNDER 10 KT AS VFR CONDS ARRIVE.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS AND FLIGHT CAT.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS AND FLIGHT CAT.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS AND FLIGHT CAT.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS AND FLIGHT CAT.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS COULD BE PREVAILING FROM LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS AND FLIGHT CAT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE LATE AT THE NYC METRO AND LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS.
.SAT...RAIN WITH IFR CONDS AND SE WINDS 15-20G25KT. COLD FROPA
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT THE NYC METRO AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
TERMINALS...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDS AND W WIND G20KT.
.SAT NIGHT...RAIN WITH IFR CONDS EARLY AT THE CT/LONG ISLAND
TERMINALS...THEN COLD FROPA WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. POST-FRONTAL
W WINDS G25KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. W WINDS G20KT.
.MON...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
MINIMAL SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS LESS THE
GREAT SOUTH BAY...NY HARBOR AND THE WESTERN SOUND AS NE FLOW
INCREASES BETWEEN THE LOW OFFSHORE AND THE HIGH DIGGING DOWN FROM
THE NORTH. GUSTS BETWEEN 23 TO 28 KT EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
TODAY...THEN DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
WITH HIGH BUILDING FURTHER OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILD TODAY WITH
THE STRENGTHENING FLOW...WITH 5-9 FT POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
OCNL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT FOR THE BAYS AND LONG ISLAND SOUND. THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
NOT ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS TIME OVER THOSE WATERS. STILL
EXPECTING GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS ABOVE 5 FT ON THE OCEAN...AND
IN FACT EXPECTING THE 5 FT SEAS TO CONTINUE SO EXTENDED THE SCA
OVER THE OCEAN FOR FRIDAY.
ON THE OCEAN...SCA CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED THRU NEXT WED...WITH
PERHAPS A BRIEF RESPITE FOR PORTIONS OF MON. ELSEWHERE...25KT
WINDS POSSIBLE SAT-SUN BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A CDFNT. OTHERWISE
THEY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI EVENING. EXPECTING
AROUND 1/2 INCH WITH 3/4 UP IN THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
340.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...SEARS/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...TONGUE
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/TONGUE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
719 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BRIEFLY IN ITS WAKE THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE AT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST ADJUSTED TO CURRENT OBSERVATION AND TRENDS. RAIN CONFINED TO
THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND DRIFTING WEST SOUTHWEST. ELSEWHERE
IT`S DRY WITH SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE. THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND REMOVED POPS ELSEWHERE.
LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THE IDEA THAT PCPN DISSIPATES BY LATE
MORNING. THUS HAVE RAPIDLY LOWERED POPS FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND.
OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY PIVOTING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST. ASSOCIATED VORT MAX ALMOST STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH THE 00Z MODELS SUGGESTING IT PUSHING TO THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING...THEN PUSHING OFFSHORE TO THE EAST AS THE LOW SLIPS
TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NE FLOW WILL KEEP A FAIRLY MOIST
LOWER LEVEL IN PLACE BUT GENERALLY THINKING THE LOSS OF FORCING
ALOFT WILL MINIMIZE THE PCPN CHANCES.
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HIGH TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AS WEAK WAA WOULD
SUGGEST TEMPS COULD PUSH NEAR NORMAL. HOWEVER...CLOUDY SKIES AND
PERSISTENT NE FLOW COULD KEEP TEMPS ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER SIDE.
SIDED MORE WITH THE MAV GUIDANCE TO REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING PCPN BY THIS EVENING SHOULD BE OFFSHORE SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND WITH DRY WX THEN ON TAP THROUGH FRIDAY. A SLIVER OF
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA TONIGHT/FRIDAY
BEFORE RETREATING ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN AS WELL
DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SO
SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES FOR A SHORT PERIOD LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN STREAMING IN AHEAD OF THE
LOW. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN WITH THE HIGH AS WELL...NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE FORM OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
HAVE MORE OF A HANDLE ON TEMPS FOR TONIGHT/TOMORROW...USING
GENERALLY A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE. TEMPS TONIGHT EXPECTED
TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON FRIDAY AND WAA...SHOULD SEE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALL NWP GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT WITH A COLD FROPA ON
SATURDAY. PCPN MOVES IN FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING AND EXITS IN
THE AFTN WITH CLEARING QUICKLY DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY EVENING.
HAVE CUT PREVIOUS FORECAST QPF IN COORDINATION WITH RIVER FORECAST
CENTERS. EXPECTING AROUND 1/2 INCH WITH 3/4 INCH UP IN THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY. NO HYDRO ISSUES EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CLOUDS START INCREASING LATE
MONDAY WITH WAA. OVER-RUNNING PATTERN CONTINUES ON TUES WITH CHC
POPS FOR LGT RA. WEAK AND DIFFUSE COLD FROPA PASSAGE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. HAVE MADE IT DRY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TIMING OF COLD FROPA.
LOWERED TEMPS AND MADE FOR NON-DIURNAL PATTERN ON SATURDAY WITH THE
PCPN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...BUT WE QUICKLY RETURN TO NORMAL
ON MONDAY AND THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
NO HAZARDS FORESEEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WELL E OF CAPE COD WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE AREA MOVES TO THE EAST...
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD DOWN FROM NEW ENGLAND.
CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO LOW-END VFR IN/NEAR COASTAL SW CT...INCLUDING
KBDR/KHPN. THIS COULD POSSIBLY SPREAD SW-WARD TOWARD NYC METRO
BUT THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT EVEN IF IT DOES EXPECT TO BE
SHORT-LIVED...SO TAF MENTIONS WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS INTO THE
AFTERNOON...UNTIL AT LEAST 21Z-22Z AT MOST TERMINALS...POSSIBLY
ENDING AN HR OR TWO EARLIER AT KSWF/KHPN/KTEB/KEWR AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD SW-WARD.
N-NE FLOW SHOULD INCREASE CLOSER TO 15 KT AT MOST TERMINALS AFTER
DAYBREAK AS THE HIGH STARTS TO BUILD DOWN...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
JUST OVER 20 KT AT KISP/KGON/KLGA/KJFK. LESS FREQUENT GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT MAY OCCUR ELSEWHERE.
AS VFR CONDS RETURN LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THU EVENING...NE
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS AND FLIGHT CAT INTO
THIS AFTERNOON.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. BRIEF WINDOW OF OVC035 CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AM.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON COULD OCCUR 1-2 HRS
EARLIER THAN FCST.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS AND FLIGHT CAT THIS
MORNING. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON COULD OCCUR 1-2 HRS
EARLIER THAN FCST.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. BRIEF WINDOW OF OVC035 CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AM.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON COULD OCCUR 1-2 HRS
EARLIER THAN FCST.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL OVC035 VFR CIGS BEFORE 12Z.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON COULD OCCUR 1-2 HRS
EARLIER THAN FCST.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS AND FLIGHT CAT INTO
THIS AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT-FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE LATE AT THE NYC METRO AND LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS.
.SAT...RAIN WITH IFR CONDS AND SE WINDS 15-20G25KT. COLD FROPA
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT THE NYC METRO AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
TERMINALS...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDS AND W WIND G20KT.
.SAT NIGHT...RAIN WITH IFR CONDS EARLY AT THE CT/LONG ISLAND
TERMINALS...THEN COLD FROPA WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. POST-FRONTAL
W WINDS G25KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. W WINDS G20KT.
.MON...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
MINIMAL SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS LESS THE
GREAT SOUTH BAY...NY HARBOR AND THE WESTERN SOUND AS NE FLOW
INCREASES BETWEEN THE LOW OFFSHORE AND THE HIGH DIGGING DOWN FROM
THE NORTH. GUSTS BETWEEN 23 TO 28 KT EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
TODAY...THEN DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
WITH HIGH BUILDING FURTHER OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILD TODAY WITH
THE STRENGTHENING FLOW...WITH 5-9 FT POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
OCNL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT FOR THE BAYS AND LONG ISLAND SOUND. THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
NOT ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS TIME OVER THOSE WATERS. STILL
EXPECTING GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS ABOVE 5 FT ON THE OCEAN...AND
IN FACT EXPECTING THE 5 FT SEAS TO CONTINUE SO EXTENDED THE SCA
OVER THE OCEAN FOR FRIDAY.
ON THE OCEAN...SCA CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED THRU NEXT WED...WITH
PERHAPS A BRIEF RESPITE FOR PORTIONS OF MON. ELSEWHERE...25KT
WINDS POSSIBLE SAT-SUN BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A CDFNT. OTHERWISE
THEY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI EVENING. EXPECTING
AROUND 1/2 INCH WITH 3/4 UP IN THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
340.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...SEARS/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...TONGUE
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/TONGUE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
717 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK FOR SUNSHINE TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND AWAY
FROM THE REGION. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 632 AM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED JUST SOUTHEAST
OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING AWAY...BUT BEFORE IT
DOES...IT IS PULLING MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND PRODUCING
SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT. WITH THESE
SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITHIN THE BROAD
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THEY ARE TRACKING INTO PARTS OF SRN VT...THE
BERKSHIRES...AND LITCHFIELD HILLS THIS MORNING. WHILE SHOWERS HAVE
MAINLY DIMINISHED OVER OUR AREA...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. THE LATEST 08Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS ANY ACTIVITY AFTER
THIS TIME REMAINING WELL EAST OF OUR AREA.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN SHOWERS IS PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS /STRATUS/
AND SOME PATCHES OF FOG. WITH A LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE
TODAY...IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BECOME
MIXED OUT. AS A RESULT...WE CAN EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH CLOUDS EVENTUALLY BREAKING FOR INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUN DURING THE AFTN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE THE CLOUDS
CURRENTLY AREN/T AS THICK...AND MORE SUN CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING.
MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S...WITH THE
WARMEST ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. TEMPS IN THE CAPITAL REGION/HUDSON
VALLEY LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A BRIEF AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP THANKS TO THE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY...WITH THE MOST CLOUDS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WITH 850
HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 TO 11 DEGREES C...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOST OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...ALTHOUGH
WESTERN AREAS WILL START TO SEE SOME SHOWERS BY LATER IN THE
NIGHT. MIN TEMPS FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.
THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DEEPENING TROUGH THAT WILL
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT FOR SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS /ABOUT 3 TO 5 STD ABOVE NORMAL
ACCORDING TO THE 850 HPA V WINDS ON THE 00Z GEFS/ WILL BE IN
PLACE...ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. PWATS WILL EXCEED 1.50 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WHICH IS ABOUT 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AS A RESULT...A LINE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL
PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AS WELL...WHICH MAY SLOW DOWN
THE FRONT/S PROGRESS AS WELL...ALLOWING FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINFALL. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ABOUT A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF
RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FOR SATURDAY. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS AS WELL DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS IN PLACE.
WE WON/T MENTION THUNDER AT THIS TIME...AS INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
LACKING. WITH THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS...IT WILL BE COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY THE EVENING
HOURS...ALLOWING FOR COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION.
WITH MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT...SOME ADDITIONAL CYCLONIC FLOW/LAKE
ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO
FOR SAT NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING...WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH
THE AXIS WEST OF OUR REGION...PUTTING OUR REGION IN THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW PORTION OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS FROM THE EXITING COLD FRONT WILL EXIT SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
RAPIDLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL WINDS OFF
THE GREAT LAKES...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD EXTEND FROM THE LAKES
INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES AS TO ANOTHER UPPER
IMPULSE...BASED MORE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...POSSIBLY TRACKING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THROUGH OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND SOME BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS RETROGRADES
A LITTLE. THERE IS A LOOSE CONSENSUS IN SOME WARMING AND
RETROGRADING OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE DISAGREEMENTS ARE WHETHER WE
GET LITTLE TO NO COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OR BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS...DEPENDING ON THE PRESENCE OR NON PRESENCE OF WELL DEFINED
UPPER DYNAMICS. FOR NOW...INDICATING JUST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...BUT
THE DETAILS HOW MUCH POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TUESDAY WILL GET CLEARER AS
WE GET NEARER TO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...WITH LOWER 60S
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THERE ARE ALSO CONFLICTS IN GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES AS TO WHETHER ANOTHER
UPPER IMPULSE AND THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY.
THE RAPID UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS DIFFICULT FOR LONG RANGE GUIDANCE TO
RESOLVE. SO...JUST INDICATING SHOWERS EXITING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SOME UPPER
50S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SYSTEM IS STILL SLOWLY EXITING BUT CLOUD LAYER AROUND 2500 FEET
STILL LINGERING AS MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED FROM THE COAST
INLAND. THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD IS NOW INTO
CENTRAL MA...SO THE VCSH FOR KPSF SHOULD CONTINUE ONLY THROUGH ABOUT
14Z. CLEARING IS STILL SEEN IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL/WESTERN
NY...BUT AGAIN THE MOIST FLOW FROM THE COAST CIRCULATING AROUND THE
COASTAL SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A SLOW ADVANCE TO THE CLEARING. THE
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 18Z-22Z...THEN VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AFTER THAT THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKY TONIGHT...WITH SOME INTERVALS OF CLOUDS...ADDED SOME MVFR
FOG TO KGFL AND KPSF WHERE CLEARING WOULD PROMOTE THE BEST CHANCES
FOR FOG.
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH A LIGHT N-NE FLOW AT LESS
THAN 6 KT SHIFTING TO E-SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THURSDAY...TRENDING
BACK TO VARIABLE/CALM DURING THE EVENING AND THROUGH THE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ALONG WITH SOME AREAS OF MORNING FOG...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING. THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL
DROP TO 50 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS.
RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH FOG AND DEW
FORMATION AND NEARLY CALM WINDS.
AFTER MORNING FOG BURNS OFF TOMORROW...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO
45 TO 50 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE
5 TO 10 MPH ON FRIDAY. A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. OTHERWISE...DRY
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.
WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION...A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MOST AREAS WILL SEE
BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH AND ONE INCH OF RAINFALL. ASIDE FROM SOME
PUDDLES ON ROADWAYS...THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.
MAINLY DRY...BUT MUCH COOLER....WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. OVERALL...AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS LOOK TO MAINLY HOLD
STEADY OR ONLY SLIGHTLY RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
632 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK FOR SUNSHINE TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND AWAY
FROM THE REGION. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 632 AM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED JUST SOUTHEAST
OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING AWAY...BUT BEFORE IT
DOES...IT IS PULLING MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND PRODUCING
SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT. WITH THESE
SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITHIN THE BROAD
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THEY ARE TRACKING INTO PARTS OF SRN VT...THE
BERKSHIRES...AND LITCHFIELD HILLS THIS MORNING. WHILE SHOWERS HAVE
MAINLY DIMINISHED OVER OUR AREA...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. THE LATEST 08Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS ANY ACTIVITY AFTER
THIS TIME REMAINING WELL EAST OF OUR AREA.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN SHOWERS IS PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS /STRATUS/
AND SOME PATCHES OF FOG. WITH A LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE
TODAY...IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BECOME
MIXED OUT. AS A RESULT...WE CAN EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH CLOUDS EVENTUALLY BREAKING FOR INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUN DURING THE AFTN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE THE CLOUDS
CURRENTLY AREN/T AS THICK...AND MORE SUN CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING.
MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S...WITH THE
WARMEST ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. TEMPS IN THE CAPITAL REGION/HUDSON
VALLEY LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A BRIEF AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP THANKS TO THE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY...WITH THE MOST CLOUDS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WITH 850
HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 TO 11 DEGREES C...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOST OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...ALTHOUGH
WESTERN AREAS WILL START TO SEE SOME SHOWERS BY LATER IN THE
NIGHT. MIN TEMPS FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.
THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DEEPENING TROUGH THAT WILL
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT FOR SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS /ABOUT 3 TO 5 STD ABOVE NORMAL
ACCORDING TO THE 850 HPA V WINDS ON THE 00Z GEFS/ WILL BE IN
PLACE...ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. PWATS WILL EXCEED 1.50 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WHICH IS ABOUT 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AS A RESULT...A LINE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL
PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AS WELL...WHICH MAY SLOW DOWN
THE FRONT/S PROGRESS AS WELL...ALLOWING FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINFALL. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ABOUT A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF
RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FOR SATURDAY. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS AS WELL DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS IN PLACE.
WE WON/T MENTION THUNDER AT THIS TIME...AS INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
LACKING. WITH THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS...IT WILL BE COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY THE EVENING
HOURS...ALLOWING FOR COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION.
WITH MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT...SOME ADDITIONAL CYCLONIC FLOW/LAKE
ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO
FOR SAT NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING...WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH
THE AXIS WEST OF OUR REGION...PUTTING OUR REGION IN THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW PORTION OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS FROM THE EXITING COLD FRONT WILL EXIT SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
RAPIDLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL WINDS OFF
THE GREAT LAKES...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD EXTEND FROM THE LAKES
INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES AS TO ANOTHER UPPER
IMPULSE...BASED MORE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...POSSIBLY TRACKING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THROUGH OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND SOME BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS RETROGRADES
A LITTLE. THERE IS A LOOSE CONSENSUS IN SOME WARMING AND
RETROGRADING OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE DISAGREEMENTS ARE WHETHER WE
GET LITTLE TO NO COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OR BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS...DEPENDING ON THE PRESENCE OR NON PRESENCE OF WELL DEFINED
UPPER DYNAMICS. FOR NOW...INDICATING JUST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...BUT
THE DETAILS HOW MUCH POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TUESDAY WILL GET CLEARER AS
WE GET NEARER TO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...WITH LOWER 60S
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THERE ARE ALSO CONFLICTS IN GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES AS TO WHETHER ANOTHER
UPPER IMPULSE AND THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY.
THE RAPID UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS DIFFICULT FOR LONG RANGE GUIDANCE TO
RESOLVE. SO...JUST INDICATING SHOWERS EXITING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SOME UPPER
50S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL
LEVEL LOW EXITING THE REGION HAVE LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. SOME SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AT KALB AND KPSF WITH CHANCES DECREASING TOWARD
DAYBREAK.
CLOUDS HEIGHTS WILL BE JUST ABOVE 3000 FEET AT KGFL BUT TRENDING
DOWNWARD TO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AND REMAIN MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 18Z.
CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN IFR AND VFR PERIODICALLY AT KALB THROUGH
ABOUT 12Z. CEILINGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AT KPOU AND KPSF SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH ABOUT 20Z-22Z. VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY VFR WITH ANY RAIN BEING VERY LIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY AT KALB AND KGFL AFTER
10Z...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...WHICH IS NOT
TOO FAR WEST OF THE TAF SITES CURRENTLY. SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KPSF AND KPOU...KPSF WITH POSSIBLE
LIGHT RAIN AND KPOU WITH SOME POSSIBLE PARTIAL CLEARING. IT SHOULD
BE MENTIONED THAT CURRENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE AND RADAR SUGGEST ANY
CLEARING WILL TAKE QUITE SOME TIME TO SPREAD EAST...EVEN THOUGH IT
IS INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND CENTRAL/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.
ONCE THE SYSTEM EXITS...CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT ABOVE 3000 FEET AFTER
18Z-22Z AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPSF FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT.
GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY WITH VFR DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING
BUILDS IN.
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH A LIGHT N-NE FLOW AT LESS
THAN 6 KT SHIFTING TO E-SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THURSDAY...TRENDING
BACK TO VARIABLE/CALM DURING THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ALONG WITH SOME AREAS OF MORNING FOG...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING. THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL
DROP TO 50 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS.
RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH FOG AND DEW
FORMATION AND NEARLY CALM WINDS.
AFTER MORNING FOG BURNS OFF TOMORROW...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO
45 TO 50 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE
5 TO 10 MPH ON FRIDAY. A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. OTHERWISE...DRY
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.
WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION...A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MOST AREAS WILL SEE
BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH AND ONE INCH OF RAINFALL. ASIDE FROM SOME
PUDDLES ON ROADWAYS...THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.
MAINLY DRY...BUT MUCH COOLER....WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. OVERALL...AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS LOOK TO MAINLY HOLD
STEADY OR ONLY SLIGHTLY RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
421 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ALONG WITH A FEW MORNING SPRINKLES AND AREAS OF
FOG...CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK FOR SUNSHINE TODAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL STORM OVER NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND AWAY
FROM THE REGION. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA NEAR CAPE COD. AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY SLIDES
EASTWARD...IT IS PULLING MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND
PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT.
WITH THESE SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITHIN THE
BROAD EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THEY ARE TRACKING INTO PARTS OF SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND LITCHFIELD HILLS THIS MORNING. A FEW
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH
EASTWARD TO KEEP ANY PRECIP EAST OF OUR AREA AND CONFINED TO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS THIS HAPPENED
BY ABOUT 8 AM...SO WILL DROP ALL POPS OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY
THE MID MORNING HOURS.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN SHOWERS IS PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS /STRATUS/
AND AREAS OF FOG. WITH A LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE TODAY...IT
WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BECOME MIXED OUT.
AS A RESULT...WE CAN EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...WITH CLOUDS EVENTUALLY BREAKING FOR INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF SUN DURING THE AFTN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE THE CLOUDS CURRENTLY
AREN/T AS THICK...AND MORE SUN CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S...WITH THE
WARMEST ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. TEMPS IN THE CAPITAL REGION/HUDSON
VALLEY LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A BRIEF AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP THANKS TO THE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY...WITH THE MOST CLOUDS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WITH 850
HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 TO 11 DEGREES C...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOST OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...ALTHOUGH
WESTERN AREAS WILL START TO SEE SOME SHOWERS BY LATER IN THE
NIGHT. MIN TEMPS FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.
THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DEEPENING TROUGH THAT WILL
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT FOR SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS /ABOUT 3 TO 5 STD ABOVE NORMAL
ACCORDING TO THE 850 HPA V WINDS ON THE 00Z GEFS/ WILL BE IN
PLACE...ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. PWATS WILL EXCEED 1.50 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WHICH IS ABOUT 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AS A RESULT...A LINE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL
PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AS WELL...WHICH MAY SLOW DOWN
THE FRONT/S PROGRESS AS WELL...ALLOWING FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINFALL. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ABOUT A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF
RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FOR SATURDAY. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS AS WELL DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS IN PLACE.
WE WON/T MENTION THUNDER AT THIS TIME...AS INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
LACKING. WITH THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS...IT WILL BE COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY THE EVENING
HOURS...ALLOWING FOR COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION.
WITH MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT...SOME ADDITIONAL CYCLONIC FLOW/LAKE
ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO
FOR SAT NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING...WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH
THE AXIS WEST OF OUR REGION...PUTTING OUR REGION IN THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW PORTION OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS FROM THE EXITING COLD FRONT WILL EXIT SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
RAPIDLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL WINDS OFF
THE GREAT LAKES...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD EXTEND FROM THE LAKES
INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES AS TO ANOTHER UPPER
IMPULSE...BASED MORE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...POSSIBLY TRACKING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THROUGH OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND SOME BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS RETROGRADES
A LITTLE. THERE IS A LOOSE CONSENSUS IN SOME WARMING AND
RETROGRADING OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE DISAGREEMENTS ARE WHETHER WE
GET LITTLE TO NO COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OR BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS...DEPENDING ON THE PRESENCE OR NON PRESENCE OF WELL DEFINED
UPPER DYNAMICS. FOR NOW...INDICATING JUST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...BUT
THE DETAILS HOW MUCH POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TUESDAY WILL GET CLEARER AS
WE GET NEARER TO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...WITH LOWER 60S
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THERE ARE ALSO CONFLICTS IN GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES AS TO WHETHER ANOTHER
UPPER IMPULSE AND THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY.
THE RAPID UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS DIFFICULT FOR LONG RANGE GUIDANCE TO
RESOLVE. SO...JUST INDICATING SHOWERS EXITING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SOME UPPER
50S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL
LEVEL LOW EXITING THE REGION HAVE LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. SOME SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AT KALB AND KPSF WITH CHANCES DECREASING TOWARD
DAYBREAK.
CLOUDS HEIGHTS WILL BE JUST ABOVE 3000 FEET AT KGFL BUT TRENDING
DOWNWARD TO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AND REMAIN MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 18Z.
CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN IFR AND VFR PERIODICALLY AT KALB THROUGH
ABOUT 12Z. CEILINGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AT KPOU AND KPSF SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH ABOUT 20Z-22Z. VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY VFR WITH ANY RAIN BEING VERY LIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY AT KALB AND KGFL AFTER
10Z...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...WHICH IS NOT
TOO FAR WEST OF THE TAF SITES CURRENTLY. SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KPSF AND KPOU...KPSF WITH POSSIBLE
LIGHT RAIN AND KPOU WITH SOME POSSIBLE PARTIAL CLEARING. IT SHOULD
BE MENTIONED THAT CURRENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE AND RADAR SUGGEST ANY
CLEARING WILL TAKE QUITE SOME TIME TO SPREAD EAST...EVEN THOUGH IT
IS INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND CENTRAL/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.
ONCE THE SYSTEM EXITS...CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT ABOVE 3000 FEET AFTER
18Z-22Z AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPSF FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT.
GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY WITH VFR DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING
BUILDS IN.
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH A LIGHT N-NE FLOW AT LESS
THAN 6 KT SHIFTING TO E-SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THURSDAY...TRENDING
BACK TO VARIABLE/CALM DURING THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ALONG WITH SOME AREAS OF MORNING FOG...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING. THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL
DROP TO 50 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS.
RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH FOG AND DEW
FORMATION AND NEARLY CALM WINDS.
AFTER MORNING FOG BURNS OFF TOMORROW...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO
45 TO 50 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE
5 TO 10 MPH ON FRIDAY. A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. OTHERWISE...DRY
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.
WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION...A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MOST AREAS WILL SEE
BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH AND ONE INCH OF RAINFALL. ASIDE FROM SOME
PUDDLES ON ROADWAYS...THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.
MAINLY DRY...BUT MUCH COOLER....WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. OVERALL...AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS LOOK TO MAINLY HOLD
STEADY OR ONLY SLIGHTLY RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
740 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
23Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS NOW SHOWING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA HIGHLIGHTED BY LONGWAVE
RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC COAST AND AN IMPRESSIVE DEEP LONGWAVE
TROUGH NOW COVERING MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ANCHORED BY A STRONG AND COLD UPPER
LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE HEIGHTS AND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
ARE WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS AIRMASS IS
BEING FELT ALL THE WAY TO THE SURFACE WHERE MANY STATIONS IN THE
UPPER MIDWEST ARE REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S THIS
EVENING...WITH EVEN A FEW SNOWFLAKES FLYING ACROSS PARTS OF
MINNESOTA.
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS DEEP TROUGH WE ARE SEEING A PLUME OF
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS MOISTURE PLUME WILL MIGRATE
ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING SHOWERS TO
THE FORECAST AND THEN PUSH EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
DURING SATURDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...DEEP SURFACE LOW REFLECTION OVER ONTARIO UNDERNEATH
THE PARENT UPPER LOW HAS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALL THE WAY
SOUTHWARD DOWN THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS TO THE FL PANHANDLE AND
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A STRONG ATMOSPHERIC PUSH FROM THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE MIGRATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
WILL BE ENOUGH TO PROPEL OUR FIRST DEFINED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MANY OF US HAVE BEEN WAITING
MONTHS FOR THE AIRMASS THAT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT. COOLER AND ESPECIALLY MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
DESCEND UPON THE PENINSULA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. YOU WILL FEEL THE
DIFFERENCE.
BEFORE THIS FRONT MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS. HAVE BEEN WATCHING A LARGE AREA OF ORGANIZED
SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE NATURE COAST THIS EVENING...AND CURRENTLY
ABOUT TO ARRIVE OVER THE TAMPA BAY AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG AN
OLD OUTFLOW SURGE FROM THE IMPRESSIVE MCS THAT CROSSED THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN GULF COAST MUCH EARLIER TODAY. UNFORTUNATELY...MOST OF
THE NWP GUIDANCE IS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME PICKING UP ON THIS
FEATURE. THE HRRR...AND NCEP HIRES ARW SEEM TO BE DOING THE BEST JOB
THIS EVENING...AND HAVE LEANED HEAVILY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR
COVERAGE AND TIMING OF SHOWERS GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THIS FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...BUT LIKELY IS NOT OUR ONLY SHOT AT RAIN. THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT IS STILL WELL TO OUR NW. AS IT MOVES OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES DUE TO THE STRONGER FLOW ON ITS
BACK-SIDE...MAY VERY LIKELY SEE ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOP.
THIS LOW LEVEL FOCUS WILL BE AIDED BY A BAND OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE LATER
TONIGHT. THIS BATCH OF SHOWERS WOULD ROLL THROUGH LATER TONIGHT FOR
THE NATURE COAST...EARLY/MID SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE I-4
CORRIDOR...AND OUR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY...SHOWER CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT
MAKES PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR ABUNDANT
AFTERNOON SUN WILL BE FROM TAMPA NORTH...WITH SKIES CLEARING LATE IN
THE DAY OR IN THE EVENING DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES.
EVERYONE CAN THEN ENJOY A PLEASANT...SUNNY...AND DRY DAY ON
SUNDAY.
&&
AVIATION...
COLD FRONT WITH SCT-NMRS SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL APPROACH THE
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...PASSING THROUGH KTPA/KPIE/KLAL/KSRQ IN THE
MORNING HOURS AND KPGD/KFMY/KRSW IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE FORECAST BUT SHOULD BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED WITH TIME. MAIN SHOWER AREA ON RADAR THIS EVENING WILL
PUSH THROUGH WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO THE FRONT
LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CIG RESTRICTIONS...BUT ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUCH AS THE SREF
ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING (ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. WILL ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR FOR THESE TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TIME...AND THEN SCT CIGS BACK OUT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS STORMS
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. GRADIENT WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LAGGING BEHIND THE STORMS AND SCEC
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR BRIEF SCA FOR JUST
A FEW HOURS WITH INITIAL BURST...BUT MODELS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
INDICATING CONDITIONS QUITE REACH SCA. WEST AND THEN NW WINDS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO INCREASED RIP CURRENT THREAT ACROSS AREA BEACHES AS
WELL ON SAT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 76 86 62 78 / 80 30 0 0
FMY 75 88 68 84 / 60 60 10 0
GIF 74 87 62 80 / 60 30 0 0
SRQ 76 87 65 81 / 70 40 10 0
BKV 72 85 52 79 / 90 20 0 0
SPG 78 85 68 80 / 80 30 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...MROCZKA
MARINE...WYNN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
.AVIATION...
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE
EXCEPTION FOR TERMINAL KTMB...THE FORECAST STILL INCLUDES AN
ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE STARTING IN 19-20Z TIME FRAME FOR MOST
EASTERN TERMINALS BUT NEED TO EMPHASIZE THE UNCERTAINTY. THE
WESTERLY FLOW WILL STILL FAVOR INTERIOR PENINSULA AND ATLANTIC
COASTAL ZONE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ALL EASTERN TERMINALS
ASSIGNED VCTS IN THE 19-20Z TIME FRAME AND BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AT
00Z WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014/
UPDATE...
NO MAJOR UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING AS THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
WITH MAINLY LIGHT WNW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP TO 700MB FROM THE MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDING IN
MIAMI WAS SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE TO SETUP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN REFLECTS THIS PATTERN AND
GENERALLY INDICATES THE BEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON SETTING UP AND FOCUSING OVER BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE
COUNTIES. WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH FAIRLY WARM 500MB
TEMPERATURES AND RISING UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOW TODAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM
THE STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL BE LIGHTNING AND 35 TO
45 MPH WIND GUSTS. 85
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 802 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014/
AVIATION...
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THERE IS ISOLATED AREAS WITH LOW
STRATUS AND/OR MIST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE LAKE WITH CURRENT METAR OBS FROM KPBI INDICATING BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. TERMINAL KTMB
MAY HAVE VERY BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITY EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CHALLENGING WIND FORECAST. WEAK WESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION AND FORECAST TO BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY LATER
THIS MORNING. AFTER 18Z THE WEST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM...BUT FOR TERMINALS KTMB AND KOPF WINDS COULD
STAY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY. LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD FAVOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WESTERLY WINDS
FAVORING CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA. ALL EAST
COAST TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS IN THE 18Z TO 21Z TIME FRAME.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014/
TYPICAL AFTERNOON SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEXT FEW DAYS...
FIRST COLD FRONT OF FALL SEASON ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT...
DISCUSSION...SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
THROUGH FRIDAY, MAINTAINING A WESTERLY WIND FLOW. THIS WILL FOCUS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AS
AN ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME DRIER
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CONVECTION SCATTERED
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE
TSTORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINS.
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND, SENDING THE FIRST COLD FRONT
OF THE SEASON ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT FORCING WILL BE TO
THE NORTH SO ONLY ORDINARY STORMS ARE ONLY EXPECTED. THE BIG STORY
WILL BE THE DROP IN DEWPOINTS AND A SLIGHT LOWERING OF
TEMPERATURES TO MAKE A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA AFTER THE LONG STEAMY TIMES SINCE MAY. GUIDANCE
TEMPS/POPS WERE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED FROM THIS TIME
YESTERDAY SO NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES ARE NOTED IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL OCCUR SUN-MON, BUT MOISTURE
LOOKS TO RETURN ON A RETURN FLOW BY TUE WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY
AND A RETURN TO SCATTERED TSTORMS THEN. /GREGORIA
MARINE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE BUT WINDS WILL
PICK UP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FIRST COLD FRONT OF THE FALL
SEASON EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. AS
WINDS TURN N THEN NE, SEAS WILL BUILD ESPECIALLY OFF THE PALM
BEACH COAST BUT NWPS CURRENTLY KEEPS SEAS BELOW HAZARDOUS
LEVELS, OR 7 FT. /GREGORIA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 74 89 76 90 / 20 40 20 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 90 78 90 / 20 40 20 50
MIAMI 77 90 78 90 / 20 50 20 50
NAPLES 75 90 76 89 / 10 20 20 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1242 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2014
.Short Term...
Did a quick update to the current zone forecast mainly to expand
the slight chance pops a little further to the east mostly over
inland sections generally west of the Tallahassee and
Apalachicola fl. Latest 12z runs from both the HRRR and Nam show
a little better coverage in the these areas this afternoon and
early this evening then previous expected. Current temps look
close.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Friday]...Expect mostly VFR to MVFR conditions for
all terminal sites through 03.06z followed by MVFR to IFR cigs and
visibilities for TLH, VLD, DHN, and ABY through about 03.13z with
mainly MVFR cigs for ECP through 03.13z. Better low to mid clouds
along with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
develop by early Fri possible leading to MVFR to IFR conditions
in and around the heavier precip for all terminal sites especially
during the afternoon and evening hours. Easterly winds at 5 to 8
knots will shift southeast then south through 03/00z becoming
south to southwest around 10 knots with higher gusts through
03.18z.
&&
.Marine...
Made little to no changes to the previous forecast. A light east
to southeast wind today will shift mostly south to southwest and
gradually build tonight and on Fri ahead of a cold front
approaching from the northwest late Fri night through Sat morning.
Expect higher winds and seas in and around scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms beginning later tonight continuing
through fri night ahead and along of the front. Expect Exercise
Caution to possible Small Craft Conditions ahead and behind the
front Fri night and on Sat.
&&
.Prev Discussion [251 AM EDT]...
.Near Term [Through Today]...
An upper level shortwave trough over the four corners region is
deepening the upper level trough over the western CONUS, with weak
ridging still in place aloft over the Mississippi valley. At the
surface, high pressure is still in place over the eastern CONUS, but
will continue to slide eastward through the period as a developing
front over the Plains begins to trek eastward. Today will be dry,
with only a slight (20%) chance for showers in extreme western
portions of our area. Highs will be quite warm for October- in
the upper 80s to around 90.
.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
The ridge of high pressure behind the cold front will quickly
build into the region on Saturday night and Sunday, and remain
centered in our vicinity through Monday. While there will be
significant cool air advection, the exact position of the ridge
during the overnight hours will be critical for radiational
cooling for both Sunday and Monday morning. At this time, the
model guidance is continuing to trend cooler, with lows on Sunday
expected to be in the middle to upper 40s over much of the
interior, with upper 40s to lower 50s fcst for Monday morning.
High temps will gradually moderate through the period, ranging
from the middle to upper 70s on Sunday, to the lower to middle 80s
on Wednesday. Rain chances will be very slim through the entire
period, with just a slight chance of a shower on Monday night and
Tuesday as an upper level disturbance moves through from the NW.
.Fire Weather...
Relative humidities will dip into the mid to upper 20s this weekend
west of a line from Apalachicola to Fitzgerald in the wake of a cold
front. At this time, it looks like Alabama will reach its relative
humidity duration and 20-ft wind criteria and likely its KBDI
values as well on Saturday. The Florida Panhandle and western Big
Bend counties appear to be more borderline, with most of the
Panhandle reaching duration criteria and much of both areas
reaching wind criteria, but the ERC values are more uncertain as
they will depend on how much rainfall we will accumulate. In
Georgia, relative humidities are expected to remain above 25
percent, preventing red flag criteria from being reached there.
Relative humidity will be low for long durations Sunday as well,
but winds will be lower, preventing red flag conditions in
Alabama. Depending on the ERC values, Florida may be borderline
once again Sunday.
.Hydrology...
Although some of the stronger storms on Friday could produce locally
heavy rainfall in excess of 2", most areas should receive average
totals of 1" or less due to the fast moving nature of the
approaching cold front. This amount of rainfall will have little
impact on our area rivers and streams.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 90 70 88 64 80 / 10 10 60 60 10
Panama City 86 75 86 64 79 / 10 20 70 50 0
Dothan 89 70 84 56 74 / 10 20 70 40 0
Albany 89 68 87 59 76 / 10 10 70 50 0
Valdosta 88 67 87 64 77 / 10 10 60 60 20
Cross City 88 68 87 70 82 / 10 20 40 50 30
Apalachicola 85 74 85 67 80 / 10 10 60 60 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...EE
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...EE
MARINE...EE
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...GOULD/WOOL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1035 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING AS THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
WITH MAINLY LIGHT WNW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP TO 700MB FROM THE MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDING IN
MIAMI WAS SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE TO SETUP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN REFLECTS THIS PATTERN AND
GENERALLY INDICATES THE BEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON SETTING UP AND FOCUSING OVER BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE
COUNTIES. WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH FAIRLY WARM 500MB
TEMPERATURES AND RISING UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOW TODAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM
THE STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL BE LIGHTNING AND 35 TO
45 MPH WIND GUSTS. 85
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 802 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014/
AVIATION...
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THERE IS ISOLATED AREAS WITH LOW
STRATUS AND/OR MIST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE LAKE WITH CURRENT METAR OBS FROM KPBI INDICATING BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. TERMINAL KTMB
MAY HAVE VERY BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITY EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CHALLENGING WIND FORECAST. WEAK WESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION AND FORECAST TO BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY LATER
THIS MORNING. AFTER 18Z THE WEST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM...BUT FOR TERMINALS KTMB AND KOPF WINDS COULD
STAY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY. LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD FAVOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WESTERLY WINDS
FAVORING CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA. ALL EAST
COAST TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS IN THE 18Z TO 21Z TIME FRAME.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014/
.TYPICAL AFTERNOON SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEXT FEW DAYS...
.FIRST COLD FRONT OF FALL SEASON ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT...
DISCUSSION...SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
THROUGH FRIDAY, MAINTAINING A WESTERLY WIND FLOW. THIS WILL FOCUS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AS
AN ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME DRIER
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CONVECTION SCATTERED
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE
TSTORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINS.
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND, SENDING THE FIRST COLD FRONT
OF THE SEASON ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT FORCING WILL BE TO
THE NORTH SO ONLY ORDINARY STORMS ARE ONLY EXPECTED. THE BIG STORY
WILL BE THE DROP IN DEWPOINTS AND A SLIGHT LOWERING OF
TEMPERATURES TO MAKE A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA AFTER THE LONG STEAMY TIMES SINCE MAY. GUIDANCE
TEMPS/POPS WERE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED FROM THIS TIME
YESTERDAY SO NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES ARE NOTED IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL OCCUR SUN-MON, BUT MOISTURE
LOOKS TO RETURN ON A RETURN FLOW BY TUE WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY
AND A RETURN TO SCATTERED TSTORMS THEN. /GREGORIA
MARINE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE BUT WINDS WILL
PICK UP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FIRST COLD FRONT OF THE FALL
SEASON EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. AS
WINDS TURN N THEN NE, SEAS WILL BUILD ESPECIALLY OFF THE PALM
BEACH COAST BUT NWPS CURRENTLY KEEPS SEAS BELOW HAZARDOUS
LEVELS, OR 7 FT. /GREGORIA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 74 89 76 / 40 20 40 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 78 90 78 / 50 20 40 20
MIAMI 91 77 90 78 / 50 20 50 20
NAPLES 90 75 90 76 / 20 10 20 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....57/DG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
945 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
...TURNING NOTICEABLY DRIER AND COOLER THIS WEEKEND WITH UNFAVORABLE
BOATING CONDITIONS...
CURRENT-TODAY...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IS STILL EVIDENT IN THE
SURFACE ANALYSIS WITH EAST WINDS AT 41009 & 41010 WHILE GRAND BAHAMA
HAD WEST WINDS. THERE WAS LITTLE/NO AIR MASS DEFINITION THOUGH AS
ONSHORE FLOW WAS KEEPING DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY.
MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE PENINSULA SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.6
TO 1.8 INCHES. THE CAPE SOUNDING DID HAVE 1.95 BUT THAT WAS NEAR AN
ATLANTIC CONVERGENCE LINE WHERE SOME SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ON
AND OFF. THE TAMPA SOUNDING HAS AN INVERSION TO OVERCOME AROUND
750MB AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE MINUS 6.
THE LOCAL WRF MODEL AND HRRR INDICATE CONVECTION INITIATING INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.
MORNING 0-6KM MEAN WINDS ARE NORTHWEST BUT BOTH MODELS DO NOT SHOW
PUSHBACK TO THE COAST...SO THIS INDICATES THAT THE MODELS ARE NOT
GENERATING VERY DEEP CONVECTION. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
MORNING SOUNDING PARAMETERS AND EXPECT PRECIP TO BE MOSTLY SHOWERS
WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STORMS INLAND. LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
PATCH OF STRATUS/FOG KVRB-KFPR WILL BE DISSIPATING SOON. HIGH
AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AS CUMULUS START FORMING THIS MORNING. EXPECT IFR CHANCES
IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TO BE LIMITED TO THE INTERIOR
TERMINALS AND BE BRIEF IN DURATION.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS WAS
CAUSING A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS EXCEPT FOR
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS IN THE SOUTH. THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW
MUCH CHANGE EXCEPT TO SWING WIND AROUND IN THE SOUTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY. BUOYS INDICATE SEAS 2-3 FEET AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
CHANGE. DOMINANT WIND WAVE PERIODS AROUND 5 SECONDS WILL CAUSE AN
UNCOMFORTABLE CHOP FOR SOME SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE SHINGLE CREEK AT CAMPBELL REMAINS JUST ABOVE ACTION STAGE.
LATEST GAUGE INFORMATION SHOWS THE CREEK HAS LEVELED OFF. ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL COULD STILL RESULT IN FURTHER RISES.
THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR REMAINS SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
RIVER LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO REACH ACTION STAGE AT LAKE HARNEY TODAY
AND ON FRIDAY AT DELAND. IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL SETS UP OVER
OR UPSTREAM FROM THESE AREAS...THERE WILL BE FURTHER AGGRAVATION
OVER THE BASIN.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WEATHER...SHARP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
133 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
.AVIATION...VFR AND LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THIS MORNING. WINDS DO LOOK TO TURN ONSHORE AT THE ATLANTIC COAST
TERMINALS (EXCEPT PERHAPS KTMB) AND THIS WILL HELP TO INITIATE
SCATTERED TSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DUE TO THE ONLY SCATTERED COVERAGE
EXPECTED, HAVE KEPT JUST VCTS FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. ANY IMPACTS OF MVFR OR IFR WOULD BE BRIEF SHOULD
A TSTORM AFFECT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 916 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014/
UPDATE...
RADAR SHOWING CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED LATER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGH. MUCH OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION
LOOKS TO BE RUNNING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS DRIFTED A
LITTLE SOUTH, AND IS SITTING JUST TO THE NORTH OF JUPITER. SO,
HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, AND ADDED SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEATHER THIS EVENING FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS,
AND PALM BEACH COAST. THE HRRR DOES CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS
SHOULD COME TO AN END OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014/
AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BECOMING ENHANCED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ATTM SO KEPT VCTS THROUGH 02Z FOR ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS EXCEPT
KPBI. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE SEEN JUST WEST OF THE EAST COAST
SITES AND MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE TERMINALS BUT SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW.
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AND
PUSHING INTO THE TERMINALS SO PREVAILED A GENERAL EASTERLY WIND AT
ALL EAST COAST SITES EXCEPT KTMB WHICH MAY BE JUST TOO FAR INLAND
TO SEE AN EASTERLY WIND.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014/
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)
THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AND INDICATES THE MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP TO 10 KFT COMBINED WITH THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY
AS THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS. MODEL PWAT GRADIENTS REFLECT
THIS POTENTIAL AND INDICATE VALUES RANGING FROM 1.62" ALONG THE
GULF COAST UP TO AROUND 2" ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS TIME...PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS THE EAST
COAST AREAS.
/AG
LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND AS NOW BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE SENDING THE
FIRST COLD FRONT OF THIS FALL SEASON ACROSS SOUTH FL SATURDAY NIGHT
AND OFF OUR COAST SUNDAY MORNING. GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SUPPORTING THIS
FROPA IDEA AS WELL...WITH THE AVERAGE OF THE MEMBERS A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW THE OPERATIONAL GFS MOS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
THIS...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST COOLER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
WOULD BE A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE FROM THE SULTRY HIGH DEWPOINTS
WE`VE FELT SINCE MAY...WELL INTO THE 70S. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S ON A NICE NORTHERLY BREEZE. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN THE LOWER-MID 80S. LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 60S INTERIOR AND GULF COAST BOTH SAT AND
SUN NIGHT...AND LOWER 70S EAST COAST METRO WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY...LETTING US KNOW THAT IT IS INDEED FALL.
THIS IS PRETTY EARLY IN THE SEASON FOR A COLD FRONT, BUT THE PATTERN
OF AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS DOES NOT SEEM TO
WANT TO LET GO AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF EVEN
AFTER TEMPORARY FLOW CHANGES. GIVEN THIS, AN EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT
ISN`T SHOCKING...AND IN FACT THE LONGER RANGE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AS WE ENTER MID OCTOBER. COULD THIS BE THE BEGINNING OF A
PARADE OF COLD FRONTS? TOO EARLY TO SAY, BUT I`M INCLINED TO BELIEVE
SO GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCKED SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
/GREGORIA
MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS CONTINUING. THE FIRST STRONG COLD FRONT OF
THE FALL SEASON IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH IN ITS
WAKE ON SUNDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTH, ESPECIALLY OFF THE PALM BEACH COAST.
/AG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 86 76 86 / 20 50 10 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 87 76 87 / 20 50 10 50
MIAMI 76 87 75 87 / 20 50 10 50
NAPLES 76 86 76 85 / 0 30 10 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
258 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
226 PM CDT
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS EVENING WILL BE ON POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLY IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CWFA THIS EVENING. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT THE
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK...WITH HIGHS THIS AFTN STRUGGLING TO WARM
BEYOND 70 TO THE MID 70S SOUTH OF A PONTIAC TO VALPO LINE. VERY
MOIST AIRMASS HAS PUMPED DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW/MID 60S THIS AFTN.
THE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO GET GOING THIS AFTN ACROSS
THE BULK OF THE AREA...LARGELY DUE TO THE THICK SOLAR SHIELDING. AS
THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHWEST IL THIS
EVE...THIS SHOULD HELP WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION. HI-RES GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING A LINE SEGMENT...HOWEVER TRYING
TO PIN-DOWN WHERE THIS LINE DEVELOPS IS THE LARGEST CHALLENGE.
EITHER WAY...EXPECT A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTH
TOWARDS CHICAGO EARLY THIS EVE. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE...A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD EASILY
PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE GREATEST SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF GIBSON CITY TO VALPO LINE...SO ANY STRONGER
STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THAT AREA COULD SEE STRONG ASCENT AND
POSSIBLY A ROTATING UPDRAFT.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHUD QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE EAST AS THE SFC LOW
LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...AND WINDS SHIFT WEST. 850MB THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER WILL
LIKELY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFT DAYBREAK FRI. LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN MILD...IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
STRONG PRESSURE RISES ARE POISED TO ARRIVE FRI AS THE PUNCH OF MUCH
COOLER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST
AT SUNRISE...OR SHORTLY AFTER. BY EARLY AFTN EXPECT TEMPS TO BEGIN
FALLING A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND MID
50S IN THE SOUTHEAST. 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ARRIVING OVERHEAD
MIDDAY FRI...WITH A PERIOD OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARRIVING MIDDAY.
WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING NORTHWEST AND WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINING
THE GUSTY WINDS SHUD PERSIST THRU FRI NGT/SAT MORNING. CURRENTLY
EXPECT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO ALSO PERSIST THRU SAT...HOWEVER COULD
SEE DRY AIR ARRIVING SAT MORNING AND PERHAPS RESULT IN A DRY DAY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWFA WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO MOVE BEYOND THE UPR 40S IN A FEW PLACES SAT...PERHAPS
REACHING 50 SOUTH OF I-80. YES FOR HIGHS...WHICH IS APPROXIMATELY
15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH WIND WILL LINGER SAT NIGHT TO
PREVENT FROST FORMATION...SO HAVE HELD THIS OUT OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST. BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN DIP INTO THE MID/UPR 30S.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIME/NORTH ATLANTIC...AS THE
ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN THIS FEATURE THRU THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED. THIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE PROLONGED TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...AND CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR. CLOSER TO LATER IN THE
WEEK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STRENGTH OF THE BLOCK WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN...HOWEVER SOME ELEMENTS OF TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE
WILL CONTINUE. PERIODIC SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL
CANADA AND BRING SOME LGT PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED...BUT NOT EXPECTING
AT THIS TIME ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AFTER 22 TO 23 UTC
THROUGH AROUND 04 TO 05 UTC THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
RAIN LIKELY PERSISTING OVERNIGHT.
* IFR TO POSSIBLY LIFR CIGS LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
* WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST FOLLOWING FROPA EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH INCREASING SPEEDS DURING THE DAY.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY EXPECTED THE IMPACT THE TERMINALS BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
PLENTY OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE AREA
OUT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND
MISSOURI. THIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE MVFR CIGS AROUND 2,000 FT
AGL. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MISSOURI AND INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AFTER
21-22 UTC. IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE THROUGH MID TO LATE THIS EVENING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AT TIMES. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN AND IFR
TO LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT THIS EVENING.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD SHIFT OVER THE TERMINALS AROUND
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST. CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING...BUT GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH WITH WIND SPEED/DURATION.
* MEDIUM-HIGH WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MEDIUM ON TIMING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH WITH IFR CIGS TONIGHT...LOW-MEDIUM WITH LIFR.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
1249 PM CDT
MAIN MARINE FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF
WESTERLY GALES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN
BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND TO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY FRIDAY
MORNING. IN THE PROCESS...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. A COMBINATION OF MUCH COOLER AIR AND THE TIGHTENING OF THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEEPENING LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING A
PERIOD OF 35 KT GALES DEVELOPING BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MAINTAIN THE COOL ADVECTION ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH WINDS SLOWLY EASING TO 25-30 KT SATURDAY NIGHT. DEEP LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LAKES ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SOME WEAKENING
OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
LAKES AS ANOTHER WEAKER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS LOOKS TO
KEEP WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT/ABOVE 20 KT INTO SUNDAY.
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
OVER THE ILLINOIS NEAR SHORE ZONES...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FARTHER EAST ALONG THE INDIANA SHORE.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744-
LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878...4 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
246 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Two concerns with this part of the forecast are the severe weather
and flash flood potential.
Early afternoon radar imagery showing an increase in showers and
thunderstorms along and east of I-57. Areas southeast of I-70 have
had some breaks in the cloud cover, which has allowed CAPE`s to rise
to over 2000 J/kg. While the late morning severe weather outlook
covers the entire CWA, it is looking like areas south of I-72 will
be the main concern. Additional line of storms moving through south
central Missouri will be entering our forecast area very late
afternoon or early evening per the HRRR model. The high-res models
are also showing some convection along the front itself, which will
be entering the western CWA toward midnight and crossing the CWA
overnight. Forecast soundings are rather moist through 10kft, so
think that damaging winds and intense lightning will be more of a
concern than large hail.
In regards to the flood threat, the overnight rainfall deposited
from 2.5 to 4 inches along the southwest edge of the CWA as far east
as Taylorville, with more isolated streaks of 2+ inches near
Mattoon. Precipitable water values expected to be around 1.8 to 1.9
inches, which is about 3 standard deviations above normal for early
October. Another couple inches potentially may occur through
tonight, especially across the southwest CWA. Will leave the flash
flood watch in its current configuration.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
By Friday morning, the front will be through the area and any pcpn
will be in the form of showers and should only be in the eastern
parts of the CWA. So, early Friday pops will just be high chance and
then decrease during the day. However, with the upper level trough
still west of the area, any clearing behind the front will allow
cold air clouds and scattered showers to develop and spread across
the area for Friday afternoon. Will have slight chance pops in the
forecast for this type of pcpn. Once the trough rotates through, the
upper level cold low pressure area will drop into the Grt Lks and
bring continued daytime/diurnal clouds in the area for Sat and Sun.
Any pcpn associated with this will be very light, primarily be over
northeast IL, and not worth the mention at this time.
Temps will become cooler the end of the week and into the weekend,
after the front moves through. 850mb temps forecast to be around -2
to -4 for the weekend, so coldest temps look to be Fri night through
Sat night. Would not be surprised to see some frost in some areas in
the northwest Sat night, if clouds can clear out and winds become
lighter.
Cyclonic flow will remain over the area into the beginning of next
week, but not quite as deep as it is for this weekend. That being
said, the models do forecast another frontal system to move into the
area Sunday night and remain in the area through Monday night. So, a
chance of pcpn will continue over the area through that time period.
Past Monday night, any pcpn chances will be small, in the 20pct
range. This will only be seen in the grids, with nothing mentioned
in the worded forecast. So, unsettled pattern looks to take hold for
most of the week.
Temps through the extended will remain on the cool side, but as the
pattern becomes more zonal, there should be a slight warming trend
for the later part of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Initial line of convection will be moving into KDEC shortly and
KCMI toward 18Z or so, with TEMPO poeriods of IFR visibilities
from heavy rain. Remainder of the TAF sites will be seeing a
steady rain for a couple hours, then a break before the next round
of convection currently in central Missouri moves northeast. The
rain and storms will end with the passage of a cold front, which
should be passing through KPIA/KSPI toward 06Z and the remainder
of the TAF sites through 10Z. Cloud cover ahead and behind the
front will be MVFR around 1500-2000 feet, although there may be a
1-3 hour window early Friday morning where the clouds scatter out
for a time.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR ILZ040-047-049>052.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1249 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
317 AM CDT
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS OF THIS COMPLEX FORECAST PERIOD...WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
SPREADING IN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A MASSIVE UPPER TROUGH OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH NUMEROUS WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW
TRIGGERING AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERAL OF THESE WAVES ARE LINED
UP FROM TX/OK TO EASTERN WISCONSIN. AT THE SURFACE...LOOSELY
ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE IS OVER OKLAHOMA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EASTWARD FROM IT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
WARM/MOIST ASCENT IS DRIVING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH AT LEAST ONE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER WAVES.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER WAVE AIDING THE SHOWER/THUNDER
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING WITH CURRENT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL EXIT TO
THE NORTHEAST BY MID MORNING OR SO. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS/THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR
LARGE SCALE PRECIP DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MIDDAY OR EVEN EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH CURRENT CONVECTION ALSO HELPING TO LIMIT THE
INCOMING MOISTURE FLUX. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST
AND BECOME MARGINALLY BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY PUSHING TOWARD WESTERN KS/OK/TX
ADVANCES EASTWARD. IT DOES APPEAR THAT ONE OR SEVERAL MID/UPPER
WAVES WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WITH AT LEAST
ONE CURRENTLY PRODUCING NEW CONVECTION ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THIS MAY
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION LOCALLY FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. ANOTHER POTENTIAL
SOURCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE THE NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THIS AFTERNOON AND BE NORTH OF THE
AREA BY THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE DETAILS FROM
ABOUT MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IS LIMITED BUT WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE IDEA THAT THERE WILL BE A MINIMUM OF ACTIVITY DURING THIS
TIME...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME ACTIVITY AROUND. THE SURFACE LOW
REMAINS ELONGATED AND TRACKS NORTHWARD ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS
FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY EVENING. THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE EAST AS WELL HELPING TO FOCUS NEW
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW. THIS
WILL LEAD TO STEADILY INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
CROSSING THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEEPENS OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. AN
ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BUT THE MAIN
QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH IN THE AREA IT MAY EXTEND.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS A CONCERN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
1.6-1.7 INCHES. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
WITH HIGHER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IF A LINE OF PARTICULARLY
WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION DOES CROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF LESS INTENSE SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL BE A CHALLENGE WITH IT CONDITIONAL ON THE EXTENT OF THE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. BETTER INSTABILITY WOULD LIKELY
NEED TO BE ADVECTED IN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG AS WILL THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE FORCING
SO EVEN WEAK INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER...WITH
GUIDANCE SHOWING AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING BY LATE DAY
WHICH WOULD BE PLENTY TO INCREASE THE SEVERE THREAT. DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT A WELL DEVELOPED
SQUALL LINE COULD SPAWN A FEW SHORT LIVED TORNADOES PROVIDED STRONG
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AND THERE IS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
TURNING. UNFORTUNATELY THERE ARE STILL TOO MANY UNCERTAIN VARIABLES
TO HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO CENTRAL
ONTARIO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT EXITING THE EASTERN CWA.
THE EXIT OF RAIN TO THE EAST MAY LAG THE FRONT THANKS TO THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS STILL CROSSING THE AREA. ANOTHER PUSH OF ENERGY WILL BE
RACING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT SPAWNING
AMPLIFICATION OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
WITH IT. YET ANOTHER WAVES RACES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE NOW VERY
AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH HELPING IT TO CLOSE OFF OVER WISCONSIN
FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH THEN LEADS TO ANOTHER EMBEDDED TROUGH AXIS
PIVOTING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...LEADING TO ADDITIONAL LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING/MIDDAY. THE BIGGER STORY
HOWEVER WILL BE THE PUSH OF COLD AIR BROUGHT IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FRIDAY. H85 TEMPS WILL CRASH TO ABOUT -2C BY FRIDAY EVENING.
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S BY EVENING WITH GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWS
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S WITH FROST DEVELOPMENT UNLIKELY THANKS
TO WINDS AND CLOUDS AS WELL AS SOME SHOWERS. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
ONLY REACH THE LOWER 50S AND SOME AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST MAY BE HELD
INTO THE UPPER 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S AS A WEAK RIDGE AXIS ARRIVES BY SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS MAY STAY STRONG ENOUGH AND CLOUD COVER EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FROST DEVELOPMENT. MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM LATER
SUNDAY BUT CLOUDS AND PRECIP MAY TEMPER WARMING SO AM EXPECTING
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH 60 POSSIBLE FAR SOUTH.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE IT STARTS
TO TRANSITION NORTHEAST AND MUCH LOWER AMPLITUDE FLOW BUILDS IN.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE PASSAGE OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND
THEREFORE PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES WITH MONDAY LOOKING TO BE A PERIOD
OF HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP. MID LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY WARM THOUGH
SOME COOLING AND WARMING WILL BE MODULATED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE
WAVES BUT OVERALL SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE ON A SLOW UPWARD TREND INTO
MID WEEK...WITH UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S POSSIBLE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AFTER 23 UTC THROUGH AROUND 04 TO
05 UTC THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND RAIN LIKELY PERSISTING
OVERNIGHT.
* IFR TO POSSIBLY LIFR CIGS LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
* WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST FOLLOWING FROPA EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH INCREASING SPEEDS DURING THE DAY.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY EXPECTED THE IMPACT THE TERMINALS BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
PLENTY OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE AREA
OUT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND
MISSOURI. THIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE MVFR CIGS AROUND 2,000 FT
AGL. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MISSOURI AND INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AFTER
21-22 UTC. IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE THROUGH MID TO LATE THIS EVENING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AT TIMES. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN AND IFR
TO LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT THIS EVENING.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD SHIFT OVER THE TERMINALS AROUND
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST. CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING...BUT GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH WITH WIND SPEED/DURATION.
* MEDIUM-HIGH WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MEDIUM ON TIMING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH WITH IFR CIGS TONIGHT...LOW-MEDIUM WITH LIFR.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
1249 PM CDT
MAIN MARINE FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF
WESTERLY GALES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN
BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND TO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY FRIDAY
MORNING. IN THE PROCESS...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. A COMBINATION OF MUCH COOLER AIR AND THE TIGHTENING OF THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEEPENING LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING A
PERIOD OF 35 KT GALES DEVELOPING BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MAINTAIN THE COOL ADVECTION ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH WINDS SLOWLY EASING TO 25-30 KT SATURDAY NIGHT. DEEP LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LAKES ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SOME WEAKENING
OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
LAKES AS ANOTHER WEAKER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS LOOKS TO
KEEP WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT/ABOVE 20 KT INTO SUNDAY.
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
OVER THE ILLINOIS NEAR SHORE ZONES...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FARTHER EAST ALONG THE INDIANA SHORE.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744-
LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878...4 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1235 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Enough clear patches have occurred over the southeast CWA to allow
CAPE`s to rise into the 1500-2000 J/kg range, with higher values
further south, per SPC mesoanalysis and GOES soundings. Line of
convection currently extending from Decatur southeast will begin
affecting east central Illinois early this afternoon, while
regional radar mosaics showing storms quickly developing over
south central Illinois near Salem and Flora. SPC watching this
area closely for a potential watch. Larger area of strong to
severe storms currently in central/south central Missouri progged
by the High-Res ARW/NMM and HRRR models to be moving through
central Illinois in the 4 pm time frame.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Have decided to issue a Flash Flood Watch for portions of the
southwest CWA which were hit harder with the rains last night.
This would include areas from Rushville southeast to Jacksonville,
then eastward to Taylorville. Observed totals were heaviest in
Christian County with 2-4 inches common, with similar totals
along the Illinois River. Moderate risk of flash flooding is
indicated in this area, with another 2 to 3 inches possible. Watch
will be out shortly.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1029 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Short break in the rain occurring over a large part of the
forecast area this morning, however a large area of showers and
thunderstorms was beginning to spread into the far western CWA.
Latest HRRR guidance has this overspreading many areas west of
I-55 into early afternoon, but the model has not been handling the
narrow axis along the I-70 corridor very well. Storms expected to
increase across the eastern CWA during the afternoon. Main cold
front is still well off to the west, and should start to move into
the western CWA during the evening hours. The rain trends should
rapidly decrease behind the front after its passage overnight.
Main question for this afternoon/evening will be with severe
weather potential. Right now only areas east of I-55 are seeing
scattered breaks in the clouds. MUCAPE values around 500 J/kg or
so across the south half of the forecast area, per SPC
mesoanalysis. RAP soundings from Springfield do bring CAPE`s up to
around 1500 J/kg during the late afternoon as the precipitation
becomes more concentrated west of the I-55 corridor. Rather moist
soundings do favor heavy rain, with precipitable water around 1.8
inches which is near the 99th percentile for early October. Any
severe weather that occurs will be more of a wind threat in our
area due to the moist profile.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
06z/1am surface analysis shows warm front extending from central
Missouri eastward into the Ohio River Valley. Several clusters of
convection have been tracking along/north of the front overnight,
aided by a 30-35kt 850mb jet streak oriented from the Southern
Plains northeastward across the boundary. This activity will
continue for the next few hours, but should begin to wane by
mid-morning as front lifts further northward. Based on current
radar trends and 00z model data, will carry likely PoPs
along/northwest of I-70 through midday, with only chance PoPs
further south. Meanwhile, low pressure developing over Oklahoma
will track northeastward into southern Wisconsin by this evening.
Line of thunderstorms is expected to develop along/ahead of
associated cold front, with most model solutions keeping this
convection just west of the KILX CWA until late afternoon/early
evening. Have increased PoPs to categorical across the Illinois
River Valley this afternoon in case storms get going faster than
anticipated, but think bulk of activity will hold off until
evening. Aside from the rain chances today, it will be another
very warm day with highs ranging from the middle 70s far northwest
around Galesburg to the middle 80s along/south of I-70.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Latest Day 1 convective outlook from SPC places all of
central/southeast Illinois under a slight risk for severe weather
tonight. With a very warm/humid air mass surging northward ahead of
an approaching cold front, resulting CAPE values will likely
exceed 1500J/kg later today. In addition, low-level wind shear
will be increasing with 0-6km bulk shear values generally in the
30-40kt range. These favorable parameters combined with strong
convergence along the cold front will lead to the development of a
line of thunderstorms this evening. Models generally develop the
storms along the Mississippi River by late afternoon, then push
them eastward to the I-55 corridor by mid-evening and into
east-central Illinois shortly after midnight. Main severe weather
threat will be strong/damaging winds, although highest
probabilities for widespread severe will likely remain further
southwest from the St. Louis area southwestward to Texas. With
precipitable water values climbing over 1.75, high rainfall rates
will be likely with any storms that develop. Localized flash
flooding may develop within the strongest storms: however, recent
rainfall amounts have not been great enough over a wide enough
area to warrant a Flash Flood Watch at this time.
Front will push into Indiana by Friday morning, bringing an end to
the greatest rain chances. Still some model discrepancy concerning
timing of frontal departure, with the ECMWF being the slowest. Have
therefore hung on to chance PoPs early Friday morning along/east of
I-57. A secondary upper wave currently evident on water vapor
imagery over Alberta will dive southeastward Friday
afternoon/evening, amplifying the mean trough over the Great
Lakes/Midwest. Synoptic lift and steep mid-level lapse rates
associated with this feature will be enough to warrant a slight
chance for showers, mainly during the afternoon. Main weather story
on Friday will be the windy and sharply cooler conditions.
Tightening pressure gradient between departing front and approaching
Canadian high pressure will lead to strong W/NW winds gusting to
between 30 and 35mph. Temperatures will struggle to rise much at
all from morning lows, with readings remaining in the 60s.
With 850mb temps progged to drop into the -3 to -5C range, low
temperatures by Saturday morning will fall into the middle
30s...representing a nearly 50 degree temp drop from expected high
temps today! Due to a continued brisk northwesterly breeze, am
not expecting any frost to develop Friday night. Heart of cold
air mass will be in place across Illinois on Saturday, with highs
struggling to reach the middle to upper 50s and overnight lows
once again dropping into the middle to upper 30s. With much
lighter winds expected, a few patches of frost will be possible by
Sunday morning, especially if skies can remain clear ahead of the
next approaching short-wave trough.
After that, the Midwest will be dominated by northwesterly
upper-level flow through Tuesday before trough retreats into Canada
by the middle and end of next week. This will mean continued below
normal temps in the 60s through Tuesday, followed by a warming trend
and a return to the 70s by Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Initial line of convection will be moving into KDEC shortly and
KCMI toward 18Z or so, with TEMPO poeriods of IFR visibilities
from heavy rain. Remainder of the TAF sites will be seeing a
steady rain for a couple hours, then a break before the next round
of convection currently in central Missouri moves northeast. The
rain and storms will end with the passage of a cold front, which
should be passing through KPIA/KSPI toward 06Z and the remainder
of the TAF sites through 10Z. Cloud cover ahead and behind the
front will be MVFR around 1500-2000 feet, although there may be a
1-3 hour window early Friday morning where the clouds scatter out
for a time.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR ILZ040-047-049>052.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Geelhart
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1231 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
317 AM CDT
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS OF THIS COMPLEX FORECAST PERIOD...WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
SPREADING IN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A MASSIVE UPPER TROUGH OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH NUMEROUS WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW
TRIGGERING AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERAL OF THESE WAVES ARE LINED
UP FROM TX/OK TO EASTERN WISCONSIN. AT THE SURFACE...LOOSELY
ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE IS OVER OKLAHOMA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EASTWARD FROM IT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
WARM/MOIST ASCENT IS DRIVING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH AT LEAST ONE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER WAVES.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER WAVE AIDING THE SHOWER/THUNDER
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING WITH CURRENT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL EXIT TO
THE NORTHEAST BY MID MORNING OR SO. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS/THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR
LARGE SCALE PRECIP DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MIDDAY OR EVEN EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH CURRENT CONVECTION ALSO HELPING TO LIMIT THE
INCOMING MOISTURE FLUX. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST
AND BECOME MARGINALLY BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY PUSHING TOWARD WESTERN KS/OK/TX
ADVANCES EASTWARD. IT DOES APPEAR THAT ONE OR SEVERAL MID/UPPER
WAVES WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WITH AT LEAST
ONE CURRENTLY PRODUCING NEW CONVECTION ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THIS MAY
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION LOCALLY FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. ANOTHER POTENTIAL
SOURCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE THE NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THIS AFTERNOON AND BE NORTH OF THE
AREA BY THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE DETAILS FROM
ABOUT MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IS LIMITED BUT WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE IDEA THAT THERE WILL BE A MINIMUM OF ACTIVITY DURING THIS
TIME...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME ACTIVITY AROUND. THE SURFACE LOW
REMAINS ELONGATED AND TRACKS NORTHWARD ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS
FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY EVENING. THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE EAST AS WELL HELPING TO FOCUS NEW
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW. THIS
WILL LEAD TO STEADILY INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
CROSSING THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEEPENS OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. AN
ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BUT THE MAIN
QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH IN THE AREA IT MAY EXTEND.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS A CONCERN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
1.6-1.7 INCHES. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
WITH HIGHER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IF A LINE OF PARTICULARLY
WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION DOES CROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF LESS INTENSE SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL BE A CHALLENGE WITH IT CONDITIONAL ON THE EXTENT OF THE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. BETTER INSTABILITY WOULD LIKELY
NEED TO BE ADVECTED IN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG AS WILL THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE FORCING
SO EVEN WEAK INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER...WITH
GUIDANCE SHOWING AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING BY LATE DAY
WHICH WOULD BE PLENTY TO INCREASE THE SEVERE THREAT. DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT A WELL DEVELOPED
SQUALL LINE COULD SPAWN A FEW SHORT LIVED TORNADOES PROVIDED STRONG
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AND THERE IS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
TURNING. UNFORTUNATELY THERE ARE STILL TOO MANY UNCERTAIN VARIABLES
TO HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO CENTRAL
ONTARIO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT EXITING THE EASTERN CWA.
THE EXIT OF RAIN TO THE EAST MAY LAG THE FRONT THANKS TO THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS STILL CROSSING THE AREA. ANOTHER PUSH OF ENERGY WILL BE
RACING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT SPAWNING
AMPLIFICATION OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
WITH IT. YET ANOTHER WAVES RACES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE NOW VERY
AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH HELPING IT TO CLOSE OFF OVER WISCONSIN
FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH THEN LEADS TO ANOTHER EMBEDDED TROUGH AXIS
PIVOTING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...LEADING TO ADDITIONAL LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING/MIDDAY. THE BIGGER STORY
HOWEVER WILL BE THE PUSH OF COLD AIR BROUGHT IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FRIDAY. H85 TEMPS WILL CRASH TO ABOUT -2C BY FRIDAY EVENING.
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S BY EVENING WITH GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWS
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S WITH FROST DEVELOPMENT UNLIKELY THANKS
TO WINDS AND CLOUDS AS WELL AS SOME SHOWERS. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
ONLY REACH THE LOWER 50S AND SOME AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST MAY BE HELD
INTO THE UPPER 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S AS A WEAK RIDGE AXIS ARRIVES BY SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS MAY STAY STRONG ENOUGH AND CLOUD COVER EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FROST DEVELOPMENT. MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM LATER
SUNDAY BUT CLOUDS AND PRECIP MAY TEMPER WARMING SO AM EXPECTING
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH 60 POSSIBLE FAR SOUTH.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE IT STARTS
TO TRANSITION NORTHEAST AND MUCH LOWER AMPLITUDE FLOW BUILDS IN.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE PASSAGE OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND
THEREFORE PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES WITH MONDAY LOOKING TO BE A PERIOD
OF HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP. MID LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY WARM THOUGH
SOME COOLING AND WARMING WILL BE MODULATED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE
WAVES BUT OVERALL SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE ON A SLOW UPWARD TREND INTO
MID WEEK...WITH UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S POSSIBLE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AFTER 23 UTC THROUGH AROUND 04 TO
05 UTC THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND RAIN LIKELY PERSISTING
OVERNIGHT.
* IFR TO POSSIBLY LIFR CIGS LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
* WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST FOLLOWING FROPA EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH INCREASING SPEEDS DURING THE DAY.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY EXPECTED THE IMPACT THE TERMINALS BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
PLENTY OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE AREA
OUT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND
MISSOURI. THIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE MVFR CIGS AROUND 2,000 FT
AGL. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MISSOURI AND INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AFTER
21-22 UTC. IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE THROUGH MID TO LATE THIS EVENING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AT TIMES. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN AND IFR
TO LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT THIS EVENING.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD SHIFT OVER THE TERMINALS AROUND
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST. CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING...BUT GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH WITH WIND SPEED/DURATION.
* MEDIUM-HIGH WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MEDIUM ON TIMING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH WITH IFR CIGS TONIGHT...LOW-MEDIUM WITH LIFR.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
441 AM CDT
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SPANS THE ATLANTIC COAST AND LOW
PRESSURE IS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE LAKE. THE
SURFACE PATTERN HAS TIGHTENED THIS MORNING AND HAS RESULTED IN
SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEEDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE LAKE WHERE 15 TO 25 KT WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED. THESE CURRENT
SPEEDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH THIS MORNING...WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 10
TO 20 KT BEING OBSERVED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY...AND THEN CONTINUE NORTHEAST TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHILE ALSO
STRENGTHENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VARYING WIND DIRECTION AS
WELL AS AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
BE INCREASING THROUGH THIS PERIOD...IT APPEARS THAT SPEEDS WILL
REALLY RAMP UP LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WEST
GALES DO APPEAR TO BE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...AND SO
ISSUED A GALE WATCH. THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF
THE STRONGEST WINDS BUT WITH THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS POSSIBLY
OBSERVING THESE GALES AS WELL...DID GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A PORTION
OF THE INDIANA NEARSHORE ZONES. AS THE LOW CONTINUES NORTH THROUGH
ONTARIO TO HUDSON BAY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WEST WINDS TO
30 KT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BEFORE DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744-
LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878...4 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1121 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Have decided to issue a Flash Flood Watch for portions of the
southwest CWA which were hit harder with the rains last night.
This would include areas from Rushville southeast to Jacksonville,
then eastward to Taylorville. Observed totals were heaviest in
Christian County with 2-4 inches common, with similar totals
along the Illinois River. Moderate risk of flash flooding is
indicated in this area, with another 2 to 3 inches possible. Watch
will be out shortly.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1029 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Short break in the rain occurring over a large part of the
forecast area this morning, however a large area of showers and
thunderstorms was beginning to spread into the far western CWA.
Latest HRRR guidance has this overspreading many areas west of
I-55 into early afternoon, but the model has not been handling the
narrow axis along the I-70 corridor very well. Storms expected to
increase across the eastern CWA during the afternoon. Main cold
front is still well off to the west, and should start to move into
the western CWA during the evening hours. The rain trends should
rapidly decrease behind the front after its passage overnight.
Main question for this afternoon/evening will be with severe
weather potential. Right now only areas east of I-55 are seeing
scattered breaks in the clouds. MUCAPE values around 500 J/kg or
so across the south half of the forecast area, per SPC
mesoanalysis. RAP soundings from Springfield do bring CAPE`s up to
around 1500 J/kg during the late afternoon as the precipitation
becomes more concentrated west of the I-55 corridor. Rather moist
soundings do favor heavy rain, with precipitable water around 1.8
inches which is near the 99th percentile for early October. Any
severe weather that occurs will be more of a wind threat in our
area due to the moist profile.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
06z/1am surface analysis shows warm front extending from central
Missouri eastward into the Ohio River Valley. Several clusters of
convection have been tracking along/north of the front overnight,
aided by a 30-35kt 850mb jet streak oriented from the Southern
Plains northeastward across the boundary. This activity will
continue for the next few hours, but should begin to wane by
mid-morning as front lifts further northward. Based on current
radar trends and 00z model data, will carry likely PoPs
along/northwest of I-70 through midday, with only chance PoPs
further south. Meanwhile, low pressure developing over Oklahoma
will track northeastward into southern Wisconsin by this evening.
Line of thunderstorms is expected to develop along/ahead of
associated cold front, with most model solutions keeping this
convection just west of the KILX CWA until late afternoon/early
evening. Have increased PoPs to categorical across the Illinois
River Valley this afternoon in case storms get going faster than
anticipated, but think bulk of activity will hold off until
evening. Aside from the rain chances today, it will be another
very warm day with highs ranging from the middle 70s far northwest
around Galesburg to the middle 80s along/south of I-70.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Latest Day 1 convective outlook from SPC places all of
central/southeast Illinois under a slight risk for severe weather
tonight. With a very warm/humid air mass surging northward ahead of
an approaching cold front, resulting CAPE values will likely
exceed 1500J/kg later today. In addition, low-level wind shear
will be increasing with 0-6km bulk shear values generally in the
30-40kt range. These favorable parameters combined with strong
convergence along the cold front will lead to the development of a
line of thunderstorms this evening. Models generally develop the
storms along the Mississippi River by late afternoon, then push
them eastward to the I-55 corridor by mid-evening and into
east-central Illinois shortly after midnight. Main severe weather
threat will be strong/damaging winds, although highest
probabilities for widespread severe will likely remain further
southwest from the St. Louis area southwestward to Texas. With
precipitable water values climbing over 1.75, high rainfall rates
will be likely with any storms that develop. Localized flash
flooding may develop within the strongest storms: however, recent
rainfall amounts have not been great enough over a wide enough
area to warrant a Flash Flood Watch at this time.
Front will push into Indiana by Friday morning, bringing an end to
the greatest rain chances. Still some model discrepancy concerning
timing of frontal departure, with the ECMWF being the slowest. Have
therefore hung on to chance PoPs early Friday morning along/east of
I-57. A secondary upper wave currently evident on water vapor
imagery over Alberta will dive southeastward Friday
afternoon/evening, amplifying the mean trough over the Great
Lakes/Midwest. Synoptic lift and steep mid-level lapse rates
associated with this feature will be enough to warrant a slight
chance for showers, mainly during the afternoon. Main weather story
on Friday will be the windy and sharply cooler conditions.
Tightening pressure gradient between departing front and approaching
Canadian high pressure will lead to strong W/NW winds gusting to
between 30 and 35mph. Temperatures will struggle to rise much at
all from morning lows, with readings remaining in the 60s.
With 850mb temps progged to drop into the -3 to -5C range, low
temperatures by Saturday morning will fall into the middle
30s...representing a nearly 50 degree temp drop from expected high
temps today! Due to a continued brisk northwesterly breeze, am
not expecting any frost to develop Friday night. Heart of cold
air mass will be in place across Illinois on Saturday, with highs
struggling to reach the middle to upper 50s and overnight lows
once again dropping into the middle to upper 30s. With much
lighter winds expected, a few patches of frost will be possible by
Sunday morning, especially if skies can remain clear ahead of the
next approaching short-wave trough.
After that, the Midwest will be dominated by northwesterly
upper-level flow through Tuesday before trough retreats into Canada
by the middle and end of next week. This will mean continued below
normal temps in the 60s through Tuesday, followed by a warming trend
and a return to the 70s by Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
The timing of thunderstorms over the next 24 hours will be the
main concern, and the associated IFR/LIFR conditions during
storms. Based on current radar trends, there should be a break in
the showers and storms at all terminals this morning. SPI will
see the return of some storms the soonest as a band of storms
moves out of NE Missouri and reaches SPI as soon as 16z. That
convection could reach to DEC as well, and have indicated that in
the TAFS. PIA, BMI and CMI could remain dry for a longer period,
possibly well into the afternoon or early evening. CMI looks to
be closer to the current storm track, so may see a few showers
pass close by to the south during the day.
The main threat for strong to severe storms looks to be this
evening for PIA, SPI and BMI. A 3-hour tempo for heavy rain and
storms with IFR conditions was included in the TAFs for the
current best-estimate on timing of the line of storms. We
estimated 00z for PIA and 04z for CMI, but those hours may need
adjustment as the cold frontal timing becomes more apparent.
After the cold front passes, winds will begin to shift to the SW
then W, with some gusts possible by morning. Also, MVFR clouds are
likely to persist through 12z/7am Friday.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR ILZ040-047-049>052.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1104 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
317 AM CDT
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS OF THIS COMPLEX FORECAST PERIOD...WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
SPREADING IN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A MASSIVE UPPER TROUGH OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH NUMEROUS WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW
TRIGGERING AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERAL OF THESE WAVES ARE LINED
UP FROM TX/OK TO EASTERN WISCONSIN. AT THE SURFACE...LOOSELY
ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE IS OVER OKLAHOMA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EASTWARD FROM IT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
WARM/MOIST ASCENT IS DRIVING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH AT LEAST ONE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER WAVES.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER WAVE AIDING THE SHOWER/THUNDER
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING WITH CURRENT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL EXIT TO
THE NORTHEAST BY MID MORNING OR SO. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS/THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR
LARGE SCALE PRECIP DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MIDDAY OR EVEN EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH CURRENT CONVECTION ALSO HELPING TO LIMIT THE
INCOMING MOISTURE FLUX. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST
AND BECOME MARGINALLY BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY PUSHING TOWARD WESTERN KS/OK/TX
ADVANCES EASTWARD. IT DOES APPEAR THAT ONE OR SEVERAL MID/UPPER
WAVES WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WITH AT LEAST
ONE CURRENTLY PRODUCING NEW CONVECTION ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THIS MAY
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION LOCALLY FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. ANOTHER POTENTIAL
SOURCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE THE NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THIS AFTERNOON AND BE NORTH OF THE
AREA BY THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE DETAILS FROM
ABOUT MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IS LIMITED BUT WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE IDEA THAT THERE WILL BE A MINIMUM OF ACTIVITY DURING THIS
TIME...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME ACTIVITY AROUND. THE SURFACE LOW
REMAINS ELONGATED AND TRACKS NORTHWARD ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS
FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY EVENING. THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE EAST AS WELL HELPING TO FOCUS NEW
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW. THIS
WILL LEAD TO STEADILY INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
CROSSING THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEEPENS OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. AN
ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BUT THE MAIN
QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH IN THE AREA IT MAY EXTEND.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS A CONCERN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
1.6-1.7 INCHES. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
WITH HIGHER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IF A LINE OF PARTICULARLY
WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION DOES CROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF LESS INTENSE SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL BE A CHALLENGE WITH IT CONDITIONAL ON THE EXTENT OF THE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. BETTER INSTABILITY WOULD LIKELY
NEED TO BE ADVECTED IN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG AS WILL THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE FORCING
SO EVEN WEAK INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER...WITH
GUIDANCE SHOWING AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING BY LATE DAY
WHICH WOULD BE PLENTY TO INCREASE THE SEVERE THREAT. DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT A WELL DEVELOPED
SQUALL LINE COULD SPAWN A FEW SHORT LIVED TORNADOES PROVIDED STRONG
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AND THERE IS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
TURNING. UNFORTUNATELY THERE ARE STILL TOO MANY UNCERTAIN VARIABLES
TO HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO CENTRAL
ONTARIO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT EXITING THE EASTERN CWA.
THE EXIT OF RAIN TO THE EAST MAY LAG THE FRONT THANKS TO THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS STILL CROSSING THE AREA. ANOTHER PUSH OF ENERGY WILL BE
RACING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT SPAWNING
AMPLIFICATION OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
WITH IT. YET ANOTHER WAVES RACES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE NOW VERY
AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH HELPING IT TO CLOSE OFF OVER WISCONSIN
FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH THEN LEADS TO ANOTHER EMBEDDED TROUGH AXIS
PIVOTING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...LEADING TO ADDITIONAL LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING/MIDDAY. THE BIGGER STORY
HOWEVER WILL BE THE PUSH OF COLD AIR BROUGHT IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FRIDAY. H85 TEMPS WILL CRASH TO ABOUT -2C BY FRIDAY EVENING.
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S BY EVENING WITH GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWS
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S WITH FROST DEVELOPMENT UNLIKELY THANKS
TO WINDS AND CLOUDS AS WELL AS SOME SHOWERS. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
ONLY REACH THE LOWER 50S AND SOME AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST MAY BE HELD
INTO THE UPPER 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S AS A WEAK RIDGE AXIS ARRIVES BY SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS MAY STAY STRONG ENOUGH AND CLOUD COVER EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FROST DEVELOPMENT. MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM LATER
SUNDAY BUT CLOUDS AND PRECIP MAY TEMPER WARMING SO AM EXPECTING
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH 60 POSSIBLE FAR SOUTH.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE IT STARTS
TO TRANSITION NORTHEAST AND MUCH LOWER AMPLITUDE FLOW BUILDS IN.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE PASSAGE OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND
THEREFORE PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES WITH MONDAY LOOKING TO BE A PERIOD
OF HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP. MID LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY WARM THOUGH
SOME COOLING AND WARMING WILL BE MODULATED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE
WAVES BUT OVERALL SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE ON A SLOW UPWARD TREND INTO
MID WEEK...WITH UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S POSSIBLE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY PERSISTING OVERNIGHT.
* MVFR AND IFR LIKELY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...LIFR POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT.
* WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH FROPA EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH INCREASING SPEEDS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
RODRIGUEZ/KB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
BULK OF MOST ACTIVITY REMAINING OUTSIDE OF THE TERMINAL AREAS THIS
MORNING...BUT WITH SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING OVERHEAD.
EXPECT CURRENT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH TO REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH AS THIS PRECIP DRIFTS TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE SHOWERS THIS MORNING EXPECT RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TODAY...OUTSIDE OF A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO.
AN ISOLATED AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS THIS MORNING...WHILE A MORE SOLID AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS
SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN IOWA AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS AREA. THE
ISOLATED AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...WHILE THE LOW CLOUDS TO THE WEST REMAINING IN THIS
LOCATION FOR MOST OF TODAY. THE ONLY TERMINAL WHICH WILL LIKELY
OBSERVE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS TODAY WILL BE RFD.
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF BETTER LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT TIMING AND
DURATION BUT AT THIS TIME...A LATER START TIME DOES APPEAR LIKELY
AND HAVE REFLECTED THIS IN THE TAFS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OVERHEAD FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENING BUT WITH INSTABILITY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT...FEEL THAT A TREND TOWARDS MORE SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
ARRIVAL OF THE BETTER LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL MARK THE
ARRIVAL OF ALREADY PRESENT IFR CEILINGS...WITH THESE CEILING
LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIFR AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THIS POSSIBILITY AT
THIS TIME. FROPA SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH WINDS QUICKLY SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND OBSERVING A
CONTINUED INCREASING TREND.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DURATION.
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...LOW MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE OF TIMING.
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR/IFR TONIGHT...LOW MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE OF LIFR.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WIND SHIFT AND SPEEDS WITH FROPA FRIDAY
MORNING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF EXACT TIMING.
RODRIGUEZ/KB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
441 AM CDT
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SPANS THE ATLANTIC COAST AND LOW
PRESSURE IS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE LAKE. THE
SURFACE PATTERN HAS TIGHTENED THIS MORNING AND HAS RESULTED IN
SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEEDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE LAKE WHERE 15 TO 25 KT WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED. THESE CURRENT
SPEEDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH THIS MORNING...WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 10
TO 20 KT BEING OBSERVED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY...AND THEN CONTINUE NORTHEAST TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHILE ALSO
STRENGTHENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VARYING WIND DIRECTION AS
WELL AS AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
BE INCREASING THROUGH THIS PERIOD...IT APPEARS THAT SPEEDS WILL
REALLY RAMP UP LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WEST
GALES DO APPEAR TO BE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...AND SO
ISSUED A GALE WATCH. THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF
THE STRONGEST WINDS BUT WITH THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS POSSIBLY
OBSERVING THESE GALES AS WELL...DID GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A PORTION
OF THE INDIANA NEARSHORE ZONES. AS THE LOW CONTINUES NORTH THROUGH
ONTARIO TO HUDSON BAY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WEST WINDS TO
30 KT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BEFORE DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744-
LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878...4 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1029 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1029 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Short break in the rain occurring over a large part of the
forecast area this morning, however a large area of showers and
thunderstorms was beginning to spread into the far western CWA.
Latest HRRR guidance has this overspreading many areas west of
I-55 into early afternoon, but the model has not been handling the
narrow axis along the I-70 corridor very well. Storms expected to
increase across the eastern CWA during the afternoon. Main cold
front is still well off to the west, and should start to move into
the western CWA during the evening hours. The rain trends should
rapidly decrease behind the front after its passage overnight.
Main question for this afternoon/evening will be with severe
weather potential. Right now only areas east of I-55 are seeing
scattered breaks in the clouds. MUCAPE values around 500 J/kg or
so across the south half of the forecast area, per SPC
mesoanalysis. RAP soundings from Springfield do bring CAPE`s up to
around 1500 J/kg during the late afternoon as the precipitation
becomes more concentrated west of the I-55 corridor. Rather moist
soundings do favor heavy rain, with precipitable water around 1.8
inches which is near the 99th percentile for early October. Any
severe weather that occurs will be more of a wind threat in our
area due to the moist profile.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
06z/1am surface analysis shows warm front extending from central
Missouri eastward into the Ohio River Valley. Several clusters of
convection have been tracking along/north of the front overnight,
aided by a 30-35kt 850mb jet streak oriented from the Southern
Plains northeastward across the boundary. This activity will
continue for the next few hours, but should begin to wane by
mid-morning as front lifts further northward. Based on current
radar trends and 00z model data, will carry likely PoPs
along/northwest of I-70 through midday, with only chance PoPs
further south. Meanwhile, low pressure developing over Oklahoma
will track northeastward into southern Wisconsin by this evening.
Line of thunderstorms is expected to develop along/ahead of
associated cold front, with most model solutions keeping this
convection just west of the KILX CWA until late afternoon/early
evening. Have increased PoPs to categorical across the Illinois
River Valley this afternoon in case storms get going faster than
anticipated, but think bulk of activity will hold off until
evening. Aside from the rain chances today, it will be another
very warm day with highs ranging from the middle 70s far northwest
around Galesburg to the middle 80s along/south of I-70.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Latest Day 1 convective outlook from SPC places all of
central/southeast Illinois under a slight risk for severe weather
tonight. With a very warm/humid air mass surging northward ahead of
an approaching cold front, resulting CAPE values will likely
exceed 1500J/kg later today. In addition, low-level wind shear
will be increasing with 0-6km bulk shear values generally in the
30-40kt range. These favorable parameters combined with strong
convergence along the cold front will lead to the development of a
line of thunderstorms this evening. Models generally develop the
storms along the Mississippi River by late afternoon, then push
them eastward to the I-55 corridor by mid-evening and into
east-central Illinois shortly after midnight. Main severe weather
threat will be strong/damaging winds, although highest
probabilities for widespread severe will likely remain further
southwest from the St. Louis area southwestward to Texas. With
precipitable water values climbing over 1.75, high rainfall rates
will be likely with any storms that develop. Localized flash
flooding may develop within the strongest storms: however, recent
rainfall amounts have not been great enough over a wide enough
area to warrant a Flash Flood Watch at this time.
Front will push into Indiana by Friday morning, bringing an end to
the greatest rain chances. Still some model discrepancy concerning
timing of frontal departure, with the ECMWF being the slowest. Have
therefore hung on to chance PoPs early Friday morning along/east of
I-57. A secondary upper wave currently evident on water vapor
imagery over Alberta will dive southeastward Friday
afternoon/evening, amplifying the mean trough over the Great
Lakes/Midwest. Synoptic lift and steep mid-level lapse rates
associated with this feature will be enough to warrant a slight
chance for showers, mainly during the afternoon. Main weather story
on Friday will be the windy and sharply cooler conditions.
Tightening pressure gradient between departing front and approaching
Canadian high pressure will lead to strong W/NW winds gusting to
between 30 and 35mph. Temperatures will struggle to rise much at
all from morning lows, with readings remaining in the 60s.
With 850mb temps progged to drop into the -3 to -5C range, low
temperatures by Saturday morning will fall into the middle
30s...representing a nearly 50 degree temp drop from expected high
temps today! Due to a continued brisk northwesterly breeze, am
not expecting any frost to develop Friday night. Heart of cold
air mass will be in place across Illinois on Saturday, with highs
struggling to reach the middle to upper 50s and overnight lows
once again dropping into the middle to upper 30s. With much
lighter winds expected, a few patches of frost will be possible by
Sunday morning, especially if skies can remain clear ahead of the
next approaching short-wave trough.
After that, the Midwest will be dominated by northwesterly
upper-level flow through Tuesday before trough retreats into Canada
by the middle and end of next week. This will mean continued below
normal temps in the 60s through Tuesday, followed by a warming trend
and a return to the 70s by Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
The timing of thunderstorms over the next 24 hours will be the
main concern, and the associated IFR/LIFR conditions during
storms. Based on current radar trends, there should be a break in
the showers and storms at all terminals this morning. SPI will
see the return of some storms the soonest as a band of storms
moves out of NE Missouri and reaches SPI as soon as 16z. That
convection could reach to DEC as well, and have indicated that in
the TAFS. PIA, BMI and CMI could remain dry for a longer period,
possibly well into the afternoon or early evening. CMI looks to
be closer to the current storm track, so may see a few showers
pass close by to the south during the day.
The main threat for strong to severe storms looks to be this
evening for PIA, SPI and BMI. A 3-hour tempo for heavy rain and
storms with IFR conditions was included in the TAFs for the
current best-estimate on timing of the line of storms. We
estimated 00z for PIA and 04z for CMI, but those hours may need
adjustment as the cold frontal timing becomes more apparent.
After the cold front passes, winds will begin to shift to the SW
then W, with some gusts possible by morning. Also, MVFR clouds are
likely to persist through 12z/7am Friday.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
602 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
THE FIRST COLD FRONT IS EXITING OUR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES AS I
WRITE THIS DISCUSSION. IN THE WEST, CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SCATTERING OUT
AND WINDS SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY. BY 22Z, THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
SHOULD HAVE CLEARED OUT, AND BY 02Z THE EASTERN HALF. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN NEAR SUNSET, AND WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EVERYWHERE BY THAT TIME. NORMALLY, WITH RECENT RAINS AND
LIGHT WINDS, I AT FIRST CONSIDERED PUTTING IN SOME MENTION OF FOG
LATE TONIGHT. BUT THEN I REALIZED ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH PRIOR TO SUNRISE FRIDAY. WINDS BEHIND THE OVERNIGHT FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE NORTH AT 18G28KT, THUS NEGATING
THE CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOWS TONIGHT ARE VERY CLOSE TO WHAT
THE NAMDNG25 AND RAP MODELS ARE FORECASTING, RANGING FROM NEAR 40F
DEGREES IN WAKEENEY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, TO THE MID 40S FROM
LARNED TO DODGE CITY TO LIBERAL, AND TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS.
THAT 2ND COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WILL USHER IN COLD AIR. THE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH JUST A FEW CLOUDS WILL
BE PASSING AND SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY, TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL STRUGGLE TO RISE IN THE COLD AIR MASS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
ONLY REACH AROUND THE 60F DEGREE MARK FRIDAY NORTHWEST OF A JOHNSON
CITY TO GARDEN CITY TO HAYS LINE. WINDS WILL DROP OFF TOWARD SUNSET
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FALLS, AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RAPIDLY
DURING FRIDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SATURDAY WHILE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH A SERIES OF H5 VORT
MAXIMA WILL CONTINUE TO CYCLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, A NUMBER OF WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVES WILL HELP USHER SURGES OF DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. AS A RESULT, PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS WILL HELP REINFORCE
THE COOLER AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND 5C IN CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
THE 0C ISOTHERM WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS. ADDITIONALLY, THE MODELS INDICATE A LEE SIDE
TROUGH BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TURNING LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS MORE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST
KANSAS WHERE H85 TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSER TO 10C.
WITH THE HELP OF A DOWNSLOPE FLOW, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER WITH LOWS NEAR 40F. HOWEVER, LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30(F) IN CENTRAL KANSAS WITH AREAS OF
PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT SATURDAY ENHANCING THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS DRAWING WARMER
AIR BACK INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, MUCH COOLER
AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCKED IN ACROSS EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS RESULTING IN A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EAST TO
WEST ACROSS THE STATE. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
REACHING UP NEAR 10C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARD MID SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH H85 TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE 15C IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS EASILY UP INTO THE 70S(F) ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 70S(F), IF AT ALL, IN CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR
THE I-70 CORRIDOR DEPENDING WHERE THE GRADIENT SETS UP. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL THEN PROCEED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH TAF PD. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AFTER
01Z. ANOTHER FRONT ALONG WITH MIXING WILL BRING INCREASING NNW/NW/GUSTY
WINDS BY TOMORROW MORNING IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 44 62 38 73 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 42 61 37 74 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 43 62 40 75 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 44 64 40 75 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 40 60 36 70 / 0 0 0 0
P28 47 65 38 72 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
255 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
THE FIRST COLD FRONT IS EXITING OUR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES AS I
WRITE THIS DISCUSSION. IN THE WEST, CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SCATTERING OUT
AND WINDS SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY. BY 22Z, THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
SHOULD HAVE CLEARED OUT, AND BY 02Z THE EASTERN HALF. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN NEAR SUNSET, AND WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EVERYWHERE BY THAT TIME. NORMALLY, WITH RECENT RAINS AND
LIGHT WINDS, I AT FIRST CONSIDERED PUTTING IN SOME MENTION OF FOG
LATE TONIGHT. BUT THEN I REALIZED ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH PRIOR TO SUNRISE FRIDAY. WINDS BEHIND THE OVERNIGHT FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE NORTH AT 18G28KT, THUS NEGATING
THE CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOWS TONIGHT ARE VERY CLOSE TO WHAT
THE NAMDNG25 AND RAP MODELS ARE FORECASTING, RANGING FROM NEAR 40F
DEGREES IN WAKEENEY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, TO THE MID 40S FROM
LARNED TO DODGE CITY TO LIBERAL, AND TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS.
THAT 2ND COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WILL USHER IN COLD AIR. THE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH JUST A FEW CLOUDS WILL
BE PASSING AND SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY, TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL STRUGGLE TO RISE IN THE COLD AIR MASS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
ONLY REACH AROUND THE 60F DEGREE MARK FRIDAY NORTHWEST OF A JOHNSON
CITY TO GARDEN CITY TO HAYS LINE. WINDS WILL DROP OFF TOWARD SUNSET
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FALLS, AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RAPIDLY
DURING FRIDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SATURDAY WHILE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH A SERIES OF H5 VORT
MAXIMA WILL CONTINUE TO CYCLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, A NUMBER OF WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVES WILL HELP USHER SURGES OF DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. AS A RESULT, PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS WILL HELP REINFORCE
THE COOLER AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND 5C IN CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
THE 0C ISOTHERM WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS. ADDITIONALLY, THE MODELS INDICATE A LEE SIDE
TROUGH BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TURNING LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS MORE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST
KANSAS WHERE H85 TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSER TO 10C.
WITH THE HELP OF A DOWNSLOPE FLOW, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER WITH LOWS NEAR 40F. HOWEVER, LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30(F) IN CENTRAL KANSAS WITH AREAS OF
PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT SATURDAY ENHANCING THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS DRAWING WARMER
AIR BACK INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, MUCH COOLER
AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCKED IN ACROSS EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS RESULTING IN A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EAST TO
WEST ACROSS THE STATE. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
REACHING UP NEAR 10C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARD MID SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH H85 TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE 15C IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS EASILY UP INTO THE 70S(F) ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 70S(F), IF AT ALL, IN CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR
THE I-70 CORRIDOR DEPENDING WHERE THE GRADIENT SETS UP. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL THEN PROCEED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
OVERALL, WE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS, WITH KHYS BECOME VFR FROM MVFR
BY 20Z. AS A COLD FRONT EXITS EAST OF THE TAF AREAS, SKIES WILL
BECOME CLEAR AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BLOW AT 20G30KTS THROUGH
00Z. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE SUNDOWN
APPROACHES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ZIP DOWN FROM WYOMING FRIDAY
MORNING, AND WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST AT
19G25KT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 44 62 38 73 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 42 61 37 74 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 43 62 40 75 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 44 64 40 75 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 40 60 36 70 / 0 0 0 0
P28 48 65 38 72 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
200 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
...UPDATE FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
THE FIRST COLD FRONT IS EXITING OUR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES AS I
WRITE THIS DISCUSSION. IN THE WEST, CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SCATTERING OUT
AND WINDS SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY. BY 22Z, THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
SHOULD HAVE CLEARED OUT, AND BY 02Z THE EASTERN HALF. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN NEAR SUNSET, AND WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EVERYWHERE BY THAT TIME. NORMALLY, WITH RECENT RAINS AND
LIGHT WINDS, I AT FIRST CONSIDERED PUTTING IN SOME MENTION OF FOG
LATE TONIGHT. BUT THEN I REALIZED ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH PRIOR TO SUNRISE FRIDAY. WINDS BEHIND THE OVERNIGHT FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE NORTH AT 18G28KT, THUS NEGATING
THE CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOWS TONIGHT ARE VERY CLOSE TO WHAT
THE NAMDNG25 AND RAP MODELS ARE FORECASTING, RANGING FROM NEAR 40F
DEGREES IN WAKEENEY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, TO THE MID 40S FROM
LARNED TO DODGE CITY TO LIBERAL, AND TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS.
THAT 2ND COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WILL USHER IN COLD AIR. THE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH JUST A FEW CLOUDS WILL
BE PASSING AND SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY, TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL STRUGGLE TO RISE IN THE COLD AIR MASS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
ONLY REACH AROUND THE 60F DEGREE MARK FRIDAY NORTHWEST OF A JOHNSON
CITY TO GARDEN CITY TO HAYS LINE. WINDS WILL DROP OFF TOWARD SUNSET
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FALLS, AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RAPIDLY
DURING FRIDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
A SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL GRIP THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL SEE ANOTHER FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY FRIDAY, USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS.
WIND GRIDS WERE BUMPED UP EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY GIVEN
THE FAIRLY INTENSE ISALLOBARIC PUSH WITH THE ONSET OF THE FRONT. WE
WILL LIKELY SEE A 2 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30+ MPH
AND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
DAY, BUT NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WILL STILL EXIST THROUGH
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TO AROUND 60 FROM SCOTT CITY TO WAKEENEY TO HAYS AND 63-65F
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL
DECREASE FURTHER AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. FRIDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE AN IDEAL NIGHT
FOR MAXIMIZED RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH WINDS DECREASING TO 6 KNOTS
OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WE LOWERED
OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE MORE DEGREES TO 36-38F UP NORTH AND ADDED IN
PATCHY FROST FOR THE AREAS FORECAST 36F OR COOLER, PARTICULARLY
ALONG INTERSTATE 70. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN NEARLY
UNCHANGED, ON THE WHOLE, THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AND GREATER
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT, LEADING TO A NICE MODIFICATION OF THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE. WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO 80-DEGREE AFTERNOONS BY AS
EARLY AS MONDAY, AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY TUESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL
BE DRY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WIPED OUT FROM THE WEEKEND FRONT AND
OVERALL SUBSIDENCE/WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE
TROPOSPHERE. THERE MAY BE A RETURN TO SOME BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES GOING INTO LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST, WEST-
CENTRAL, SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
OVERALL, WE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS, WITH KHYS BECOME VFR FROM MVFR
BY 20Z. AS A COLD FRONT EXITS EAST OF THE TAF AREAS, SKIES WILL
BECOME CLEAR AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BLOW AT 20G30KTS THROUGH
00Z. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE SUNDOWN
APPROACHES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ZIP DOWN FROM WYOMING FRIDAY
MORNING, AND WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST AT
19G25KT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 44 62 38 76 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 42 61 37 76 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 43 62 40 76 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 44 64 40 77 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 40 60 36 71 / 0 0 0 0
P28 48 65 39 76 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
300 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014
TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL EXIT THE AREA BY
NOON TIME LEAVING A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BLOW THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAIN IMPACT WITH
THIS WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND A ONE TO THREE HOUR
PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. CENTER OF 12MB 3 HOURLY
PRESSURE RISE COUPLET ENTERS YUMA COUNTY AROUND 07Z STEADILY MOVING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE INTERSTATE BY 09Z THEN SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT
EXITS THE AREA BY 12Z. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBILITY OF A
WIND ADVISORY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS AN AREA OF LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND MODESTLY LOW INHIBITION. THIS
AREA OF INSTABILITY IS NEAR THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF APPROACHING
130+KT 250 JET. FELT THAT A THUNDERSTORM CANT BE RULED OUT AROUND
09Z FOR AREAS FROM TRENTON TO HILL CITY AND POINTS EAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID 30S TO AROUND 40 EAST OF THE CO/KS
BORDER. FROST AND POSSIBLY A FREEZE FOR PARTS OF FAR EASTERN
COLORADO WEST OF A LINE FROM YUMA TO STRATTON TO NEAR WILD HORSE.
WILL LET DAYSHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT 12Z DATA BEFORE DECIDING ON
POSSIBLE HEADLINES.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
DURING THE MORNING WITH A SLOW DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. GENERALLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE
NORTH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S. FROST POSSIBLE FOR THE KIT CARSON TO AROYA
COLORADO AREA AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR WRAY COLORADO TO NEAR GEM
AND HILL CITY KANSAS. FREEZE POSSIBLE IN RED WILLOW COUNTY.
HILITES POSSIBLY NEEDED. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE POSSIBLE AT
MCCOOK (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). HAVE ADDED RECORD/NEAR RECORD
WORDING TO THE ZFPGLD.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS 70 TO 75 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY A
MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
OVER UPPER ONTARIO AND A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING STABLE CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE TRI
STATE AREA. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR OCTOBER. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD
WILL FALL BETWEEN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WHICH IS ALSO
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AT KGLD AND
KMCK AS NORTHWEST WIND DECREASES AND TEMPERATURES COOL TO THE
DEWPOINT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE HRRR INDICATE THAT STRATUS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING OCTOBER 4TH AT
MCCOOK NEBRASKA. CURRENT RECORD LOW FOR THE DATE IS 32 DEGREES SET
BACK IN 1911.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...FS
CLIMATE...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
219 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED STRONG TROUGH
MOVING INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. AT THE SFC...FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH FRONT DRAPED FROM KLBL TO
KMCI.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL CENTER AROUND
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS
IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WHILE SEEING CURRENT DRY AIR IN THE AREA
DOES CAUSE SOME CONCERN ON PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BULK OF NEAR TERM
MODELS ALL INDICATE A TAP OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING NEAR SFC FRONT
AND INTERACTING WITH ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE THIS EVENING. MIXING
RATIOS IN THIS PLUME ARE HIGH AND WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
EXPECT A DECENT RESPONSE TO PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS.
SOMEWHAT SURPRISED BY CONSISTENCY OF QPF OUTPUT FROM AVAILABLE
DATA SOURCES AND AM COMFORTABLE INCREASING GENERAL AMOUNTS TO 0.25
TO 0.75 AT MOST LOCATIONS. CHOSE NOT TO GO ON THE HIGH END OF
PRECIPITATION THOUGH...DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS OVER
MOISTURE QUALITY. FORCING WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNRISE AS DEEP
CAA TAKES OVER. SURPRISINGLY...SOME LOW TOPPED INSTABILITY DOES
EXIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SO A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS APPEAR
WARRANTED.
OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE WINDS BEHIND STRONG COLD
FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. 12Z NAM AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE THE RAP INDICATE STRONG 3 HR PRESSURE RISES IN EXCESS OF
6MB AS FRONT PASSES. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT. PLAYED UP WINDS A
BIT IN THE FORECAST...BUT UNTIL STRONG PRESSURE RISES/GUSTS BECOME
MORE APPARENT IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA PLAN ON HOLDING OFF ON ANY
HIGHLIGHTS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY A
MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
OVER UPPER ONTARIO AND A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING STABLE CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE TRI
STATE AREA. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR OCTOBER. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD
WILL FALL BETWEEN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WHICH IS ALSO
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AT KGLD AND
KMCK AS NORTHWEST WIND DECREASES AND TEMPERATURES COOL TO THE
DEWPOINT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE HRRR INDICATE THAT STRATUS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1117 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED STRONG TROUGH
MOVING INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. AT THE SFC...FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH FRONT DRAPED FROM KLBL TO
KMCI.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL CENTER AROUND
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS
IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WHILE SEEING CURRENT DRY AIR IN THE AREA
DOES CAUSE SOME CONCERN ON PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BULK OF NEAR TERM
MODELS ALL INDICATE A TAP OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING NEAR SFC FRONT
AND INTERACTING WITH ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE THIS EVENING. MIXING
RATIOS IN THIS PLUME ARE HIGH AND WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
EXPECT A DECENT RESPONSE TO PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS.
SOMEWHAT SURPRISED BY CONSISTENCY OF QPF OUTPUT FROM AVAILABLE
DATA SOURCES AND AM COMFORTABLE INCREASING GENERAL AMOUNTS TO 0.25
TO 0.75 AT MOST LOCATIONS. CHOSE NOT TO GO ON THE HIGH END OF
PRECIPITATION THOUGH...DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS OVER
MOISTURE QUALITY. FORCING WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNRISE AS DEEP
CAA TAKES OVER. SURPRISINGLY...SOME LOW TOPPED INSTABILITY DOES
EXIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SO A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS APPEAR
WARRANTED.
OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE WINDS BEHIND STRONG COLD
FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. 12Z NAM AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE THE RAP INDICATE STRONG 3 HR PRESSURE RISES IN EXCESS OF
6MB AS FRONT PASSES. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT. PLAYED UP WINDS A
BIT IN THE FORECAST...BUT UNTIL STRONG PRESSURE RISES/GUSTS BECOME
MORE APPARENT IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA PLAN ON HOLDING OFF ON ANY
HIGHLIGHTS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...
A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
ALONG WITH FRONT END OF H3 JET ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING I DECIDED TO
KEEP 20 POPS ACROSS NW PART OF CWA THURSDAY NIGHT DESPITE LIMITED
MOISTURE PROFILES. STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY OR ADVISORY WINDS (45 MPH)
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVERNIGHT. NAM IN PARTICULAR SHOWS
6HR PRESSURE RISES IN EXCESS OF 10MB WHICH IS CONCERNING AND COULD
INDICATE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF WARNING CRITERIA WINDS. IF THERE IS
VIRGA OR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MAY ALSO HELP MIX STRONGER WINDS TO
THE SURFACE. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON HEADLIGHTS...BUT THIS NEEDS
TO BE MONITORED.
GRADIENT RELAXES FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL JET AND
TROUGH AXIS MOVE EAST...HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL STRONG WINDS ALOFT
OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. PROFILES WOULD LIMIT
MIXING TO BELOW WHERE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE FRIDAY DESPITE
SUNNY CONDITIONS...SO ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SEEM UNLIKELY DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. SHOULD STILL BE WINDY...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
VERY COOL AIR MASS SETTLES INTO REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IF
IT WASNT FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AIR
MASS WOULD HAVE SUPPORTED A HARD FREEZE (LOOKS LIKE WELL LUCK OUT).
CLEAR SKIES...LOW TD...AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE
MODERATING AS A RIDGE OVER THE SW US BEGINS TO BUILD EAST. MOST OF
THE CWA SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING...THOUGH PATCHY FROST WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHERE OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 33-35F RANGE ARE EXPECTED.
SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY...
GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS WESTERN US
WITH MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM SHIFTING WELL NORTH AND EAST OF
CWA. ECMWF IS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND CLOSE
UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES POSSIBLY BRINGING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
BACK TO NORTHERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS OUR CWA. THERE
ISNT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY ON THIS WEAK FEATURE BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLES SO I KEPT SUN/SUN NIGHT DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THESE PERIODS WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
LOWER 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS.
CONSENSUS/MODEL BLEND SEEMED APPROPRIATE...SO LITTLE CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AT KGLD AND
KMCK AS NORTHWEST WIND DECREASES AND TEMPERATURES COOL TO THE
DEWPOINT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE HRRR INDICATE THAT STRATUS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
414 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
TWO UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY W OF THE REGION /ONE OVER THE PLAINS AND
ANOTHER MOVING INTO MT/ WILL COMBINE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WHILE
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL ENHANCE AND MOVE THE UPPER JET
CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA TO THE N...WHICH WILL PUT THE CWA UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. THIS WILL
DEEPEN THE 1006MB SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
ROUGHLY 996MB LOW WHILE IT MOVES TO NEAR GRB BY 06Z FRI AND 991MB
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z FRI. THE SFC LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN TO
AROUND 985MB AS IT MOVES TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY 00Z SAT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENS INTO A CLOSED LOW AND MOVES INTO WRN WI. MODEL
AGREEMENT IS GOOD BETWEEN ALL BUT THE ECMWF...WHICH IS
SLOWER...WEAKER AND FARTHER E. DID NOT USE THE ECMWF DUE TO IT BEING
AN OUTLIER.
PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES UP AND
JET FORCING IMPROVES...WITH SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY
THUNDER DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING AND 100-200J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE. HAVE 100 POPS SLOWLY MOVING SW TO NE LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH FRI MORNING. ONLY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP FRI AS THE DRY SLOT
ROTATES INTO THE AREA. BY MID AFTERNOON FRI...COOLER WESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN UPPER MI FOR THE
BEST PRECIP...ALONG WITH COOLING SFC TEMPS. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
TONIGHT AND FRI LOOK TO BE ABOVE 1 INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
0.75 INCHES AT IWD AND 1.5 INCHES AT ERY IN THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONGER TERM REVOLVE ARND POPS FOR LAKE
EFFECT PCPN/POTENTIAL FOR SOME SN ACCUMULATION THRU THE WEEKEND AS
CHILLY...DEEP CYC NW FLOW ARND CLOSED LO IN ONTARIO THAT IS FCST TO
DOMINATE THE UPR LKS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAX TEMPS WL BE
PARTICULARLY BLO NORMAL THRU THIS PERIOD. A RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WL BRING BACK MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS.
FRI NGT...A SHRTWV DIGGING INTO THE DEEPENING UPR TROF IN THE GREAT
LKS IS FCST TO DRAG A REINFORCING COLD FNT ACRS UPR MI AND DROP H85
TEMPS AS LO AS -3 TO -4C OVER THE W BY 12Z SAT. WHILE THERE WL BE
SOME SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FNT WITH ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC UNDER
AREA OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC...THE STRENGTHENING CYC FLOW W
VEERING NW LLVL FLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF THE DYNAMIC FORCING/COOLING
LLVL TEMPS WL RESULT IN LK ENHANCED PCPN LATER AT NGT FOLLOWING THE
FROPA...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OVER THE W DOWNWIND OF LK SUP FAVORED BY
THE FCST LLVL FLOW. SINCE THE GREAT MAJORITY OF THE MODELS SHOW
H100-85 THKNS REMAINING OVER 1305M THRU 12Z SAT AND LLVL LAPSE RATES
ARE RATHER UNSTABLE...THIS PCPN WL BE IN THE FORM OF RA. A FEW OF
THE HIER ELEVATION LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME SN MIX WITH THE PCPN
LATE...BUT NO ACCUMS ARE LIKELY.
SAT THRU MON NGT...A DEEP UPR LO IS FCST TO CONSOLIDATE OVER NW
ONTARIO DURING THIS TIME AS MYRIAD OF SHRTWVS PASSING THRU THE UPR
TROF PHASE AND LOWER HGTS AT THE CENTER OF THE UPR LO. A DEEP CYC
FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO DOMINATE THE UPR
LKS...WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO DIP AS LO AS ABOUT -5C LATE SAT/SUN
OVER THE N UNDER ASSOCIATED THERMAL TROF. WHILE THIS SETUP IS
FAVORABLE FOR LK EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS...TIMING ON THE PASSAGE OF
THE SHRTWVS AND PERIODS WHERE THE MSTR WL BE DEEPEST AND EXTEND THRU
THE -10C ISOTHERM TO PINPOINT PERIODS OF HEAVIER/MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WL BE DIFFICULT. ALTHOUGH SOME SN WL LIKELY MIX WITH THE
PCPN OVER MAINLY THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE W AND NCENTRAL...FCST
H100-85 THKNS AOA 1305M MOST OF THE TIME IN AREAS MOST PRONE TO THE
LK EFFECT PCPN DOWNWIND OF THE LK SUGGESTS THE SN WL BE LIMITED. THE
BEST CHC FOR SN TO MIX WITH THE PCPN WL BE SAT NGT/SUN MRNG OVER THE
INTERIOR NW...WHEN THE H85 TEMPS/THKNS ARE LOWEST. THE CYC FLOW IS
FCST TO BACK SLOWLY THRU THE PERIOD FM THE NNW ON SAT MRNG TO THE W
LATER ON SUN AND MON...SHIFTING THE LOCATION OF EXPECTED HIER
POPS/MORE NMRS LK EFFECT SHOWERS. STRONGER WINDS ON SAT/SUN WITH
H925 WINDS UP TO 30-35KTS ARE FCST TO DIMINISH BY MON AS THE UPR LO
BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT SLOWLY TO THE N. TEMPS WL RUN BLO NORMAL
TO WELL BLO NORMAL...ESPECIALLY THE DAYTIME MAX TEMPS. AS THE FLOW
BACKS TO THE W...LESS MODIFIED AIR WL BRING COLDER OVERNGT LO TEMPS
NEAR THE WI BORDER.
WITH A LENGTHY PERIOD OF STRONG NW TO W WINDS ON LAKE SUP...
INCLUDING GALES FOR A TIME...AND HI LAKE LEVELS (LAKE SUP IS
CURRENTLY ABOUT 6 INCHES BLO THE RECORD HI FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR)...
BEACH EROSION/FLOODING MAY BECOME A PROBLEM FOR AREAS THAT ARE
EXPOSED TO WAVES GENERATED BY W TO NW WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL HAZARD IN THE HWO/EHWO.
TUE THRU THU...AS THE CENTER OF LOWER HGTS TENDS TO SHIFT INTO
CENTRAL CANADA FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A FINAL SHRTWV THRU THE UPR
LKS MON NGT/TUE...THE FLOW OVER THE THE AREA IS PROGGED TO BECOME
MORE ZONAL AS HGTS SLOWLY RISE. THIS TRANSITION WL CAUSE LINGERING
PCPN ON TUE TO DIMINISH AS MAINLY DAYTIME TEMPS WARM. TIMING OF
DISTURBANCES MOVING THRU THE MORE ZONAL FLOW AND ASSOCIATED PCPN
SUGGESTS FOLLOWING A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THIS EVENING...CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR WITH UPSLOPE RAIN AND FOG. UTILIZED A
NEARLY EVEN BLEND OF CONSENSUS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND THE HRRR OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WEIGHTED MORE HEAVILY
TOWARD THE HIGH-RES WRF AND NAM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT WORST
CONDITIONS TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SLOW IMPROVEMENT FRI MORNING AS THE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES NE OF THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE NORTH ACROSS UPPER MI INTO LK
SUPERIOR. ONCE THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR ON
FRI...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW AND INCREASE UP TO 25-30 KTS.
STILL LOOKING FOR GALE FORCE W VEERING N WINDS TO DEVELOP ON FRI
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SURGE
OF COLDER AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. SINCE THE WINDS ON
FRI AFTERNOON ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS BEFORE...OPTED TO
SHIFT THE START OF THE GALE WATCH TO FRI EVENING. THE STRONG-GALE
FORCE NNW WINDS ON SAT MORNING WILL BACK TOWARD THE W AND DIMINISH
BY LATE IN THE DAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXES OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NW ONTARIO SHIFTS
TO THE N AND WEAKENS LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BACK TOWARD THE SW AND WEAKEN A
BIT. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON TUE...THE
WINDS MAY VEER BACK TOWARD THE W AND INCREASE AGAIN.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ267.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ263>266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
331 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
TWO UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY W OF THE REGION /ONE OVER THE PLAINS AND
ANOTHER MOVING INTO MT/ WILL COMBINE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WHILE
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL ENHANCE AND MOVE THE UPPER JET
CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA TO THE N...WHICH WILL PUT THE CWA UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. THIS WILL
DEEPEN THE 1006MB SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
ROUGHLY 996MB LOW WHILE IT MOVES TO NEAR GRB BY 06Z FRI AND 991MB
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z FRI. THE SFC LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN TO
AROUND 985MB AS IT MOVES TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY 00Z SAT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENS INTO A CLOSED LOW AND MOVES INTO WRN WI. MODEL
AGREEMENT IS GOOD BETWEEN ALL BUT THE ECMWF...WHICH IS
SLOWER...WEAKER AND FARTHER E. DID NOT USE THE ECMWF DUE TO IT BEING
AN OUTLIER.
PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES UP AND
JET FORCING IMPROVES...WITH SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY
THUNDER DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING AND 100-200J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE. HAVE 100 POPS SLOWLY MOVING SW TO NE LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH FRI MORNING. ONLY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP FRI AS THE DRY SLOT
ROTATES INTO THE AREA. BY MID AFTERNOON FRI...COOLER WESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN UPPER MI FOR THE
BEST PRECIP...ALONG WITH COOLING SFC TEMPS. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
TONIGHT AND FRI LOOK TO BE ABOVE 1 INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
0.75 INCHES AT IWD AND 1.5 INCHES AT ERY IN THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEEP TROF
THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN CONUS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES MAX OUT OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY EARLY
ON SAT WHERE 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE 3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLO THE
LONG TERM EARLY OCT AVG. TROF WILL EVOLVE INTO A LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER NRN ONTARIO FROM LATE SAT THRU THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A BLO NORMAL TEMP REGIME. DAILY MAX
TEMPS WILL BE THE MOST ANOMALOUS WITH MANY DAYS HAVING HIGHS WELL
BLO NORMAL. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED
WITH LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED PCPN UNDER COLD DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW.
AIR MASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AT TIMES OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...NOT THAT UNUSUAL FOR EARLY OCT. FARTHER OUT...MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING THE
TRANSITION TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE/LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW DURING THE
MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO MODERATION OF TEMPS
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL AFTER A COLD EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
BEGINNING FRI...SFC LOW WILL BE LIFTING N THRU ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE MORNING. MDT TO POSSIBLY HVY RAINFALL THAT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA TONIGHT WILL LINGER OVER THE E THRU AT LEAST THE MORNING
HRS AS A RESULT OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LIFTING N THRU LWR MI. ECMWF
REMAINS SLOWER THAN OTHER MODELS SHIFTING THIS RAIN OUT OF THE ERN
FCST AREA FRI. IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN PCPN AREA...A MORE SHOWERY
PCPN REGIME WILL TAKE OVER...BUT WITH MID LEVEL DRYING NOTED...A
GOOD PART OF THE DAY MAY ACTUALLY END UP DRY OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
AND CNTRL. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND TURN GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW UNDER A FAVORABLE WRLY WIND FLOW.
FRI NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A REINFORCING
SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA BRINGING COLDER AIR MORE
FIRMLY INTO THE UPPER LAKES...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -2 TO -4C
BY 12Z SAT. IN CONCERT WITH FAIRLY STRONG DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE THAT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA...LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE. WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR PCPN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
FAR W THE NEAR THE WI BORDER.
OVER THE WEEKEND...DEEP...CHILLY AND MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
DOMINATE AS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER NRN ONTARIO. WITH
850MB TEMPS IN THE -3 TO -6C RANGE...EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
LAKE EFFECT PCPN. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING
PERIODS OF HEAVIER/MORE WIDESPREAD LAKE ENHANCED PCPN. PCPN ON SAT
WILL BE MOST FAVORED IN AREAS AFFECTED BY NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT.
BACKING WINDS ON SUN WILL SHIFT PCPN TO AREAS THAT ARE MOST AFFECTED
BY WESTERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT. RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW
AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT AND
MORNING HRS.
WITH A LENGTHY PERIOD OF STRONG NW TO W WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR...
INCLUDING GALES FOR A TIME...AND HIGH LAKE LEVELS (LAKE SUPERIOR
IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 6 INCHES BLO THE RECORD HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR)...BEACH EROSION/FLOODING MAY BECOME A PROBLEM FOR AREAS THAT
ARE EXPOSED TO WAVES GENERATED BY W TO NW WINDS.
AS MENTIONED AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS DISCUSSION THERE IS MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT ON TRANSITIONING FLOW DURING THE MIDDLE AND END OF
NEXT WEEK. AGREEMENT IS GOOD THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER OVER
NRN ONTARIO THRU AT LEAST MON...WHICH WILL KEEP THE UPPER LAKES
UNDER ITS UNSETTLED INFLUENCE. LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TUE...
LEADING TO A TRANSITION TO DRY WEATHER AND SOME TEMP MODERATION.
MODERATION/DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WED WITH A MORE ZONALLY
ORIENTED FLOW TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE NRN CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THIS EVENING...CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR WITH UPSLOPE RAIN AND FOG. UTILIZED A
NEARLY EVEN BLEND OF CONSENSUS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND THE HRRR OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WEIGHTED MORE HEAVILY
TOWARD THE HIGH-RES WRF AND NAM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT WORST
CONDITIONS TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SLOW IMPROVEMENT FRI MORNING AS THE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES NE OF THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
EXPECT DIMINISHING S WINDS THIS MORNING OVER THE EAST. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT AS SFC LOW TO THE NORTH ACROSS
LK SUPERIOR. ONCE THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR ON
FRIDAY...STRONG WEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS LK SUPERIOR DUE TO
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR. GALE FORCE
WINDS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY AFTN...AND THESE WILL INCREASE TO 35-40
KTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS
COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL
BUT FAR WESTERN LK SUPERIOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AS IT STANDS NOW...GALE WARNINGS WILL EVENTUALLY BE
ISSUED EITHER LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
THOUGH GALES SHOULD DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WEST WINDS
20-30 KTS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING IN FROM SCNTRL CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ263>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
142 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
DESPITE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN LOW-LEVELS...MAIN WARM FRONT IS WELL
TO SOUTH OVER CNTRL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FRONT ESSENTIALLY IS
JUST TO SOUTH OF WHERE MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF TSRA ARE CURRENTLY
OCCURRING. STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA MOVING TOWARD
HUDSON BAY AND A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED FRONT FROM THE LOW TOWARD THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS REASON FOR THE SOUTH WINDS OVER UPR
LAKES REGION.
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING
OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE AND ON NOSE OF JET STREAK OVER WISCONSIN AND
WITHIN AREA OF GREATER MOISTURE ADVECTION. THERE IS ALSO A TOUCH OF
MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY BUT NO TSRA HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THUS FAR.
EXPECT SHRA OVER MAINLY EASTERN CWA INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTN WHILE
REST OF CWA SHOULD BE WITHIN A LULL AS MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM IN FORM
OF TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES...ONE OVER FOUR CORNERS AND THE OTHER STRONGER
ONE OVER WESTERN CANADA DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA...DOES NOT BEGIN TO AFFECT UPPER GREAT LAKES
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTN AND MORE EMPHATICALLY INTO TONIGHT. BACK TO
TODAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO END UP A BIT ABOVE NORMAL /NORMAL HIGHS UPR
50S TO LOW 60S/ AS 950-900MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM AHEAD OF LARGER
SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA AND ROCKIES AND CLOUD COVER BY
AFTN SHOULD THIN OUT SOME. EXPECT MAX TEMPS INTO THE 60S...WITH SHOT
AT EVEN SOME UPPER 60S FOR SOME LOCATIONS OVER WEST HALF OF CWA.
INTO THIS EVENING THE WESTERN CANADA SHORTWAVE DIVES ACROSS NORTHERN
PLAINS WHILE THE FOUR CORNERS WAVE HEADS ACROSS KS INTO WESTERN
MO. OVERNIGHT THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE AS IT PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WAVE. LIFT WILL
INCREASE DUE TO DEEPENING OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH FROM SCNTRL CANADA
TO SOUTHERN PLAINS/12 HR HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 150DAM SPREADING TOWARD
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND BROAD MODERATE/STRONG H7-H5 Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE OVER UPR GREAT LAKES. ENHANCEMENT TO LIFT AS H3 JET
STREAK AMPLIFIES FM UPPER GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN ONTARIO/HUDSON
BAY...PLACING MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION.
WITH THE BACKGROUND OF THIS LARGER SCALE SUPPORT...STRONG SSW-NNE
MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF THE INITIAL NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED SFC TROUGH AND AS WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORMING
OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING STEADILY DEEPENS AS IT LIFTS ALONG
TROUGH TO A POSITION SOMEWHERE VCNTY OF EASTERN LK SUPERIOR BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. OVERALL...CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND EXPECTED
FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SUPPORTS LARGE SHIELD OF MODERATE
RAIN LIFTING ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THOUGH
MOST OF THE NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS SEEM LIKELY TO REACH 0.75 INCHES OVER
EAST CWA...WHILE AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY BLO 0.50 INCH OVER WEST CWA AS
THAT AREA IS FARTHER REMOVED FM ADVECTION OF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
OVER 200 PCT OF NORMAL. STRENGTH OF DYNAMICS SUGGESTS SOME EMBEDDED
TSRA MAY OCCUR...THOUGH BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER EAST HALF OF CWA
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CLOSER TO STRONGER H85-H7 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND TRACK OF DEEPENING SFC LOW.
EVEN WITH THE DEEPENING LOW MOVING ACROSS TONIGHT...APPEARS STRONGER
WINDS WILL NOT MATERIALIZE UNTIL MORE SO ON FRIDAY. MINS TONIGHT
WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE FOR EARLY OCTOBER...WITH NEAR 50 DEGREE
READINGS WEST TO MID-UPR 50S FOR THE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEEP TROF
THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN CONUS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES MAX OUT OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY EARLY
ON SAT WHERE 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE 3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLO THE
LONG TERM EARLY OCT AVG. TROF WILL EVOLVE INTO A LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER NRN ONTARIO FROM LATE SAT THRU THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A BLO NORMAL TEMP REGIME. DAILY MAX
TEMPS WILL BE THE MOST ANOMALOUS WITH MANY DAYS HAVING HIGHS WELL
BLO NORMAL. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED
WITH LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED PCPN UNDER COLD DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW.
AIR MASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AT TIMES OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...NOT THAT UNUSUAL FOR EARLY OCT. FARTHER OUT...MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING THE
TRANSITION TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE/LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW DURING THE
MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO MODERATION OF TEMPS
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL AFTER A COLD EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
BEGINNING FRI...SFC LOW WILL BE LIFTING N THRU ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE MORNING. MDT TO POSSIBLY HVY RAINFALL THAT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA TONIGHT WILL LINGER OVER THE E THRU AT LEAST THE MORNING
HRS AS A RESULT OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LIFTING N THRU LWR MI. ECMWF
REMAINS SLOWER THAN OTHER MODELS SHIFTING THIS RAIN OUT OF THE ERN
FCST AREA FRI. IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN PCPN AREA...A MORE SHOWERY
PCPN REGIME WILL TAKE OVER...BUT WITH MID LEVEL DRYING NOTED...A
GOOD PART OF THE DAY MAY ACTUALLY END UP DRY OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
AND CNTRL. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND TURN GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW UNDER A FAVORABLE WRLY WIND FLOW.
FRI NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A REINFORCING
SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA BRINGING COLDER AIR MORE
FIRMLY INTO THE UPPER LAKES...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -2 TO -4C
BY 12Z SAT. IN CONCERT WITH FAIRLY STRONG DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE THAT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA...LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE. WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR PCPN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
FAR W THE NEAR THE WI BORDER.
OVER THE WEEKEND...DEEP...CHILLY AND MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
DOMINATE AS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER NRN ONTARIO. WITH
850MB TEMPS IN THE -3 TO -6C RANGE...EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
LAKE EFFECT PCPN. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING
PERIODS OF HEAVIER/MORE WIDESPREAD LAKE ENHANCED PCPN. PCPN ON SAT
WILL BE MOST FAVORED IN AREAS AFFECTED BY NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT.
BACKING WINDS ON SUN WILL SHIFT PCPN TO AREAS THAT ARE MOST AFFECTED
BY WESTERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT. RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW
AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT AND
MORNING HRS.
WITH A LENGTHY PERIOD OF STRONG NW TO W WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR...
INCLUDING GALES FOR A TIME...AND HIGH LAKE LEVELS (LAKE SUPERIOR
IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 6 INCHES BLO THE RECORD HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR)...BEACH EROSION/FLOODING MAY BECOME A PROBLEM FOR AREAS THAT
ARE EXPOSED TO WAVES GENERATED BY W TO NW WINDS.
AS MENTIONED AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS DISCUSSION THERE IS MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT ON TRANSITIONING FLOW DURING THE MIDDLE AND END OF
NEXT WEEK. AGREEMENT IS GOOD THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER OVER
NRN ONTARIO THRU AT LEAST MON...WHICH WILL KEEP THE UPPER LAKES
UNDER ITS UNSETTLED INFLUENCE. LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TUE...
LEADING TO A TRANSITION TO DRY WEATHER AND SOME TEMP MODERATION.
MODERATION/DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WED WITH A MORE ZONALLY
ORIENTED FLOW TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE NRN CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THIS EVENING...CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR WITH UPSLOPE RAIN AND FOG. UTILIZED A
NEARLY EVEN BLEND OF CONSENSUS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND THE HRRR OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WEIGHTED MORE HEAVILY
TOWARD THE HIGH-RES WRF AND NAM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT WORST
CONDITIONS TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SLOW IMPROVEMENT FRI MORNING AS THE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES NE OF THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
EXPECT DIMINISHING S WINDS THIS MORNING OVER THE EAST. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT AS SFC LOW TO THE NORTH ACROSS
LK SUPERIOR. ONCE THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR ON
FRIDAY...STRONG WEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS LK SUPERIOR DUE TO
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR. GALE FORCE
WINDS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY AFTN...AND THESE WILL INCREASE TO 35-40
KTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS
COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL
BUT FAR WESTERN LK SUPERIOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AS IT STANDS NOW...GALE WARNINGS WILL EVENTUALLY BE
ISSUED EITHER LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
THOUGH GALES SHOULD DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WEST WINDS
20-30 KTS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING IN FROM SCNTRL CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ263>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
602 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
LOOKING AT WIND OBS THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
COLD FRONT WHICH JUST BARELY MADE IT INTO WRN MN WEDNESDAY EVENING
HAS FINALLY STARTED TO MOVE. STARTING TO SEE MORE LIGHT NW WIND OBS
IN MN AND AT 330 AM...THE WIND SHIFT LOOKS TO BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
I-35. THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY THOUGH HAS NOT FOLLOWED THE WIND
SHIFT...AS IT WAS STILL BACK ALONG A RWF TO BRAINERD LINE AT 330 AM.
LIGHT WINDS AND A JUICED BOUNDARY LAYER THANKS TO RAINS WEDNESDAY
HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME RATHER UGLY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
EAST OF THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY. WITH WINDS REALLY NOT PICKING UP MUCH
TODAY...COMBINED WITH UPPER CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE
STRATUS/FOG...NOT EXPECTING THE LOW STRATUS TO GO VERY FAR TODAY.
GIVEN THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND THE EXPECTATION OF ANOTHER RAINY
AFTERNOON...CUT BACK ON HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...KEEPING THEM
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S...THOUGH DEPENDING ON WHERE THE MAIN PRECIP
BAND SETS UP TODAY...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A STRIP ACROSS THE CENTER
OF THE CWA THAT REMAINS IN THE 50S.
AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...THERE IS ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP ON ITS WAY.
CURRENTLY ITS DOWN ACROSS NE NEB AND SE SODAK. THE PRECIP THAT WILL
BE COMING THIS DIRECTION WILL BE ROOTED ON A STRONG BAND OF FGEN IN
THE H7-H6 LAYER. THE 02.00 GFS AND NAM AGREE ON THIS BAND...BUT
DIFFERED SIGNIFICANTLY ON WHERE IT WOULD GO. THE GFS HAS THE CENTER
OF THE BAND GOING UP A RWF/STC LINE...WHILE THE NAM WAS WE OVER
ALONG AND EVEN A LITTLE EAST OF AN AEL/EAU LINE...THOUGH THE 02.06
NAM DID SHIFT THE BAND WEST. WHEN LOOKING AT THE
RAP/HRRR/HOPWRF/NMM/ARW...THEY ALL AGREE NICELY WITH WHAT THE GFS
HAS...SO FAVORED THE POP/QPF FORECAST TODAY TOWARD A GFS/CAM BLEND.
OTHER CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF
THUNDER...AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF THE
MPX CWA.
TONIGHT...PRECIP WILL QUICKLY CLEAR OUT OF WRN WI BETWEEN 2Z AND 6Z.
BEHIND THIS PRECIP...WE WILL START TO SEE SOME STRONGER PRESSURE
RISES MOVE INTO WRN MN. THIS WILL START BRINGING IN SOME BETTER THAN
10 KT WINDS OUT INTO WRN MN LATE IN THE NIGHT. THE OTHER ADVANTAGE
TO THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS IS THAT THIS WILL
FINALLY HELP FLUSH THE LOW STRATUS OUT OF THE MPX AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
THE FOCUS ON FRIDAY REMAINS ON THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW AND NEAR
WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN WESTERN MN AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WE ARE
BECOMING A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE IN HOLDING OFF ON ISSUING A WIND
ADVISORY GIVEN THE SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN THE FORECAST WINDS
SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. YESTERDAY`S NAM WAS
SHOWING MORE 44-49KTS NEAR THE TOP OF THE CHANNEL AND THIS
MORNING`S RUN...ALONG WITH THE GFS ARE GENERALLY 38-43KTS. WE WILL
STILL BE EFFICIENT IN BRING THESE WINDS TO THE GROUND DUE TO THE
GOOD MIXING.
THE SLOWER TREND WITH THIS INCOMING SYSTEM ALSO MEANS MOST OF
FRIDAY COULD BE PRECIP FREE AS WE END UP IN THE DRY SLOT...WITH
THE TRAILING WEAK TROUGH AND UPPER LOW NOT SWINGING THROUGH UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING MIGHT ACTUALLY SUPPORT A FEW MORE SNOW
FLAKES MIXING IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURE PROFILE COLLAPSE AND THE FREEZING LEVEL DROPS TO NEAR
1000FT WHILE THE LIGHT PRECIP IS STILL ONGOING IN THE EASTERN HALF
OF MN AND IN WESTERN WI. THE SURFACE TEMP AND GROUND TEMP ARE TOO
WARM FOR EVEN MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...BUT NONETHELESS WE`RE ABOUT A
COUPLE WEEKS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE FROM WHEN WE TYPICALLY SEE OUR
FIRST FLAKES. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM ALL HAVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MN...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DOUBLE DIGIT
/INCHES/ SNOWFALL IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND ONTARIO.
CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW AND COOL FALL AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD ALSO BE MAINLY DRY. THE ECMWF
IS STILL MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING BACK WARMER TEMPS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT JETTISONS A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE
APPALACHIANS AND LIFTS THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE CONUS
FASTER THAN THE GFS. THE PATTERN IS EVOLVING SLOWER AND TEMPS
EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN WHAT WAS FORECAST
YESTERDAY AND THE DAY BEFORE. IT`S GOING TO BE TOUGH TO SHAKE THE
40S AND 50S UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY...MAYBE WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
ONLY CHANGE TO CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING WAS TO IMPROVE
VSBYS...LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY IN PLACE IS HERE TO STAY FOR SOME
TIME WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE NEXT
WAVE TO THE SW HELPING TO LIMIT MIXING. DID NOT CHANGE MUCH WITH
THE TAF IN TERMS OF TIMING FOR ARRIVAL OF RAIN...OTHER THAN TO
SPEED IT UP A BIT. WENT ABOUT AN HOUR FASTER THAN THE HRRR AS IT
HAS BEEN INITIALIZING A BIT SLOW WITH THE PRECIP THIS MORNING.
CIGS IN THAT RAIN RIGHT NOW ARE MAINLY VFR...SO TRIED TO SHOW SOME
MORE CIGS INTO THE HIGHER MVFR CATEGORY AS THE RAIN COMES IN.
WILL SEE CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR QUICKLY BEHIND THE RAIN...WITH THE
THREAT FOR MVFR CIGS RETURNING TO THE NW AFTER 9Z. WILL START
PICKING UP GUSTS AFTER 6Z AT RWF/AXN...WITH MSP PICKING UP ON THE
GUSTS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.
KMSP...MSP IS OUT OF THE WOODS FOR DENSE FG...BUT LIFR/IFR CIGS
THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z WILL KEEP THINGS RUNNING A BIT SLOWER.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE
FIELD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE VIS DROP BACK DOWN TO
MVFR AS THE HEAVIEST RAIN MOVES THROUGH. DECIDED TO MOVE THE CIGS
ABOVE 017 WHEN THE HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN AS WELL BASED ON THE FACT
THAT OBS IN THE RAIN SHIELD NOW HAVE CIGS RANGING FROM 020-050. BY
THE END OF THE TAF...WILL LIKELY BE SEEING NW WINDS GUSTING TO
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI NIGHT...MAINLY MVFR WITH CHC -SHRA. WINDS WNW 15G25 KTS.
SAT...CHC MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS WNW 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ042>045-
049>053-057>063-065>070-074>078-082>085-091>093.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ014-015-
023>026.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
110 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVY FOR THE ERN HALF OF OUR MN AND MOST OF
OUR WI CWA. COLD FRONT IS MAKING LITTLE IF ANY PROGRESS EAST AND
AT 11 PM WAS ONLY TO A REDWOOD FALLS TO LONG PRAIRIE LINE...WITH
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR STRATUS ALREADY IN PLACE. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FROM RAINS YESTERDAY...EXPECT THIS
STRATUS TO DESCEND TO THE GROUND AND BECOME DENSE FOG TONIGHT.
INITIAL AREA ISSUED FOR WAS BASED ON WHERE THE HRRR SHOWS DENSE
FOG FORMING...ALONG WITH WHERE THE 21Z HOPWRF SHOWS 75% OR GREATER
PROBABILITIES FOR VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A HALF MILE. WILL WATCH
VISIBILITY TRENDS THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THINKING WE WILL
PROBABLY HAVE TO FILL IN RUSK/CHIP/EAU CLAIRE COUNTIES AS WELL. IF
FRONT DOES NOT MAKE MUCH MORE PROGRESS EAST IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...MAY HAVE TO ADD A ROW OR TWO OF COUNTIES ON THE WEST END
AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW...AREA WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR SEEING
DENSE FOG IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE ADVY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS A STACKED LOW OVER MANITOBA...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY STRADDLING THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER. THE FIRST
RELATED WAVE OF LIFT GENERATED A HEALTHY AREA OF SHOWERS THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT FROM EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI TOWARD
LAKE SUPERIOR. IN ITS WAKE...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PESKY STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE
CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY NEAR EAU
CLAIRE.
ON THURSDAY...THE NEXT WAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM OVER SOUTH/EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL
WI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS HOW FAR WEST THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL EXTEND. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE NAM/ECMWF
WHICH RESTRICT THE CATEGORICAL POPS EAST OF A REDWOOD FALLS TO ST
CLOUD MN LINE. HAVE INCLUDED 70-80 POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL HANG IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S UNDER THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WITH LOW/MID 60S ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE LONG TERM FORECAST PICKS UP
DURING QUITE AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER. AN IMPRESSIVE FALL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE COMING TOGETHER ACROSS THE MIDWEST BY
THURSDAY EVENING...AND WILL SPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES
INTO SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN. AT THIS
TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS POSITIONED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION TODAY...WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH A DEEPLY AMPLIFIED NORTHERN TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
ALBERTA THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN. STRONG FRONTOGENESIS...ACCOMPANIED BY
DECENT DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE
FOCUSED FROM A LINE NEAR FAIRMONT...THROUGH THE EAST METRO TOWARD
TAYLORS FALLS AND AREAS TO THE EAST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL ADVANCE
NORTHEAST FROM MISSOURI TO NEAR GREEN BAY BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY AS
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN TROUGHS PHASE TOGETHER. FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN MINNESOTA...FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY
DRY. HOWEVER...THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL CREATE VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS AS A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH MOVE IN TO MONTANA...MEANING
QUITE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
THROUGH THE DAY. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD BY
MID DAY...AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HOLD DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. COLD AIR
ADVECTION LOOKS STRONGER AT THIS POINT WITH 850H TEMPS OF -4 TO
-6...SO COOLED HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY BY ABOUT TWO TO THREE DEGREES
EVERYWHERE...MEANING MOST WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S...WITH WIND
CHILL VALUES LOWER THAN THAT. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS INDICATE AN
AREA OF DECENT THETA-E ADVECTION MOVING THROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SYSTEM WHICH MAY PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MIXING IN SOME
SNOWFLAKES OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN...BUT AT
THIS TIME NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DURING THIS PERIOD...THE AFOREMENTIONED
FALL SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE NORTH TOWARD HUDSON BAY AND CONTINUE
DEEPENING INITIALLY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
OUR AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP THE STRONG NORTHWEST WIND
FLOWING OVER OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME...MEANING QUITE A COLD
WEEKEND IS IN STORE. EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S WILL BE COMMON...WITH AREAS IN THE NORTHWEST POTENTIALLY
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING. FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE STRONG
SYSTEM WILL RETROGRADE TO JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE HUDSON BAY AND
BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
PUSHING EAST AND 850H TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE 60S FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. DISAGREEMENT
REMAINS BETWEEN THE GFS/EC ABOUT THE UPPER PATTERN TOWARD THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL DICTATE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
MIDWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
TWO CONCERNS THE TAF PERIOD ARE THE DENSE FOG IN THE PROCESS OF
FORMING AND THE TIMING OF RAIN LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. AT 6Z...THE FRONT IS ONLY TO ABOUT A RWF TO LONG
PRAIRIE LINE. EAST OF THE FRONT IT IS UGLY...WITH LIFR CIGS
QUICKLY BECOMING 1/4SM OR LESS FG. AXN WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
FOG...AM HOPING THE FRONT WILL WORK THROUGH RWF ENOUGH TO KEEP
THEM OUT OF THE FOG...BUT WILL BE CLOSE. FOR STC/MSP/RNH/EAU...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT DENSE FOG WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE
THROUGH 15Z. ONLY QUESTION REALLY IS WHEN DOES IT HAPPEN. HAVE IT
HAPPENING AT MSP THE LATEST. AREA OF RAIN CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL NEB
WILL BE HEADING THIS WAY THIS MORNING. STUCK CLOSE TO A
GFS/HRRR/RAP/HOPWRF BLEND FOR BRINGING RAIN ACROSS ALL MN
TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND WI TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH TODAY...BUT THU EVENING...WE WILL
FINALLY START TO GET SOME PRESSURE RISES INTO WRN MN...MARKING THE
BEGINNING OF WHAT WILL BE A BREEZY THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
KMSP...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTING
THE MORNING PUSH THIS MORNING AT MSP. GIVEN HOW WIDESPREAD THE
DENSE FOG IS AROUND THE CITIES AT 6Z...MSP WILL NOT BE ESCAPING
THE FOG. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW LOW TO GO WITH VSBYS...BUT
CURRENT TAF MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE THAT
VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING WILL DROP BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS...WITH
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AIRPORT ARRIVAL RATES LIKELY BETWEEN 10Z
AND 14Z. AFTER THAT...STUCK CLOSE TO WHAT THE PREVIOUS TAF HAD
FOR THE TIMING OF RAIN INTO THE FIELD...AND LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE
ANOTHER SEVERAL HOUR ROUND OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...MUCH LIKE WE
SAW YESTERDAY. BY THE END OF THE TAF...MSP WILL START FEELING THE
STRONGER WINDS...BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT NW WINDS AND GUSTS WILL
NOT NEED TO SHOW UP UNTIL THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MAINLY MVFR WITH CHC -SHRA. WINDS WNW 20G30 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ043>045-
050>053-059>063-066>070-074>078-082>085-091>093.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ014-015-
023>026.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MPG
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1113 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVY FOR THE ERN HALF OF OUR MN AND MOST OF
OUR WI CWA. COLD FRONT IS MAKING LITTLE IF ANY PROGRESS EAST AND
AT 11 PM WAS ONLY TO A REDWOOD FALLS TO LONG PRAIRIE LINE...WITH
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR STRATUS ALREADY IN PLACE. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FROM RAINS YESTERDAY...EXPECT THIS
STRATUS TO DESCEND TO THE GROUND AND BECOME DENSE FOG TONIGHT.
INITIAL AREA ISSUED FOR WAS BASED ON WHERE THE HRRR SHOWS DENSE
FOG FORMING...ALONG WITH WHERE THE 21Z HOPWRF SHOWS 75% OR GREATER
PROBABILITIES FOR VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A HALF MILE. WILL WATCH
VISIBILITY TRENDS THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THINKING WE WILL
PROBABLY HAVE TO FILL IN RUSK/CHIP/EAU CLAIRE COUNTIES AS WELL. IF
FRONT DOES NOT MAKE MUCH MORE PROGRESS EAST IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...MAY HAVE TO ADD A ROW OR TWO OF COUNTIES ON THE WEST END
AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW...AREA WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR SEEING
DENSE FOG IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE ADVY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS A STACKED LOW OVER MANITOBA...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY STRADDLING THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER. THE FIRST
RELATED WAVE OF LIFT GENERATED A HEALTHY AREA OF SHOWERS THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT FROM EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI TOWARD
LAKE SUPERIOR. IN ITS WAKE...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PESKY STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE
CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY NEAR EAU
CLAIRE.
ON THURSDAY...THE NEXT WAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM OVER SOUTH/EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL
WI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS HOW FAR WEST THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL EXTEND. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE NAM/ECMWF
WHICH RESTRICT THE CATEGORICAL POPS EAST OF A REDWOOD FALLS TO ST
CLOUD MN LINE. HAVE INCLUDED 70-80 POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL HANG IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S UNDER THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WITH LOW/MID 60S ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE LONG TERM FORECAST PICKS UP
DURING QUITE AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER. AN IMPRESSIVE FALL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE COMING TOGETHER ACROSS THE MIDWEST BY
THURSDAY EVENING...AND WILL SPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES
INTO SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN. AT THIS
TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS POSITIONED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION TODAY...WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH A DEEPLY AMPLIFIED NORTHERN TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
ALBERTA THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN. STRONG FRONTOGENESIS...ACCOMPANIED BY
DECENT DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE
FOCUSED FROM A LINE NEAR FAIRMONT...THROUGH THE EAST METRO TOWARD
TAYLORS FALLS AND AREAS TO THE EAST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL ADVANCE
NORTHEAST FROM MISSOURI TO NEAR GREEN BAY BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY AS
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN TROUGHS PHASE TOGETHER. FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN MINNESOTA...FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY
DRY. HOWEVER...THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL CREATE VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS AS A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH MOVE IN TO MONTANA...MEANING
QUITE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
THROUGH THE DAY. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD BY
MID DAY...AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HOLD DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. COLD AIR
ADVECTION LOOKS STRONGER AT THIS POINT WITH 850H TEMPS OF -4 TO
-6...SO COOLED HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY BY ABOUT TWO TO THREE DEGREES
EVERYWHERE...MEANING MOST WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S...WITH WIND
CHILL VALUES LOWER THAN THAT. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS INDICATE AN
AREA OF DECENT THETA-E ADVECTION MOVING THROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SYSTEM WHICH MAY PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MIXING IN SOME
SNOWFLAKES OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN...BUT AT
THIS TIME NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DURING THIS PERIOD...THE AFOREMENTIONED
FALL SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE NORTH TOWARD HUDSON BAY AND CONTINUE
DEEPENING INITIALLY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
OUR AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP THE STRONG NORTHWEST WIND
FLOWING OVER OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME...MEANING QUITE A COLD
WEEKEND IS IN STORE. EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S WILL BE COMMON...WITH AREAS IN THE NORTHWEST POTENTIALLY
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING. FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE STRONG
SYSTEM WILL RETROGRADE TO JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE HUDSON BAY AND
BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
PUSHING EAST AND 850H TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE 60S FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. DISAGREEMENT
REMAINS BETWEEN THE GFS/EC ABOUT THE UPPER PATTERN TOWARD THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL DICTATE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
MIDWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME OVER
MOST OF ERN MN AND WRN WI AS STRATUS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER.
HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FROM JUST WEST OF ST CLOUD
TO JUST WEST OF MANKATO. NOT ANTICIPATING THIS CLEARING TO MAKE
MUCH OR ANY PROGRESS EASTWARD TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
STEADY OR SLOWLY DETERIORATING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A SLOW
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF MORE RAIN TO MOVE ACROSS
ERN MN AND WRN WI LATE IN THE PERIOD.
KMSP...IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING WITH MVFR
RETURNING LATE IN THE PERIOD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MAINLY MVFR WITH CHC -SHRA. WINDS WNW 20G30 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
MNZ043>045-050>053-059>063-066>070-074>078-082>085-091>093.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ014-
015-023>026.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MPG
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
248 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 248 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
The ongoing thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and early
evening ahead of a deep layer trough and an approaching cold front.
As of 19Z the cold front was just entering the northwest portion of
the CWA and slowly advancing eastward. The severe threat, hail and
wind, is very limited for our CWA and located across our far
southern counties along and south of a warm front. The front has
made very little northward progress due to reinforced cool air from
the morning/early afternoon convection to its north and thus it is
not expected to move much this afternoon. By later this evening the
warm sector will be shunted east with the passage of the
aforementioned cold front with much of the deeper convection east of
the CWA. There will be a low chance for post-frontal showers
and isolated elevated thunderstorms overnight tonight, but that
activity should not amount to much...per the HRRR and current 88D trends.
Near sunrise tomorrow a secondary cold front quickly moves in and
through the CWA behind the departing upper level trough. It will be rather
breezy behind the front with northwest winds gusting to as high as
30 MPH advecting much cooler and drier air. There will also be a
low chance pops for widely scattered showers...very hit or
miss...and diurnally driven.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Any clouds lingering into Friday evening over central Missouri will
be fast to scatter out leaving clear skies overnight. This will set
the stage for one of the coldest nights of the season so far with
temperatures in the mid to upper 30s across much of the area. Some
guidance is bringing parts of northern Missouri down below freezing,
but this seems too cold since west winds should remain around 5 to 10
mph overnight. Coldest temperatures should be west of us, closer to
the low-level ridge axis. Could still see some patchy frost across
eastern KS into northern Missouri early Saturday morning particularly
in areas sheltered from a westerly wind.
This ridge axis will pass overhead on Saturday keeping temperatures
seasonably chilly with highs in the 50s. Southerly winds on the back
side of this feature will prevent Saturday night`s temperatures from
getting much below 40 degrees while Sunday sees a nice warm up into
the upper 60s and lower 70s.
On Monday a very weak wave will rotate into the area on the back side
of a large Great Lakes upper trough. Could see a few showers from
this feature but overall precipitation chances are only 30 percent or
so. Once this passes through, slow height rises will build into the
Plains and allow temperatures to warm into the middle and upper 70s
by Weds and Thurs.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
There will be several more rounds of TSRA this afternoon that will
briefly lower VIS as they pass over the terminals. CIS should remain
IFR to perhaps low MVFR before a cold front moves through over the
next few hours. Behind the front current CIGS are IFR so I maintain
that into the evening before slow improvement tonight. Another cold
front arrives near sunrise tomorrow that will create breezy northwest
winds and a SCT-BKN cloud deck through much of the day.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ057-060.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ033-040-
043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Pietrycha
LONG TERM...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Pietrycha
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
552 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2014
...12Z Aviation Forecast Update...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 222 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
There will be active weather during the morning commute for some
across the Missouri Ozarks and southeast Kansas. Convection has
been redeveloping across northeast Oklahoma and southeast Kansas
moving slowly to the northeast. The HRRR has been handling this
well and will see this convection continue mainly along and north
of I-44 through mid morning. There will be a risk for stronger
convection to develop this morning with large hail and damaging
wind gusts the main threat along with frequent lightning and heavy
rainfall.
The short term models are in good agreement with the advancing
cold front moving into southeast Kansas by mid afternoon.
Initially discreet convection will develop along and just ahead of
the front between 18-20z. This convection will quickly merge into
a squall line or line segments as the line advances rather quickly
eastward. Followed the HRRR closely for the afternoon convection.
All modes of severe weather will be possible with damaging winds
being the main threat...followed by large hail...and the risk of a
couple isolated tornadoes. The line of storms will be near the
Joplin area by 4 pm and Springfield area by 6 pm. The line will be
clearing the eastern Missouri Ozarks before midnight this evening.
Will leave the ongoing Flash Flood Watch as is with the heaviest
storm total rainfall expected in the watch area where totals will
be between 2 to 5 inches. Areas southeast of I-44 will see totals
between 1 to 2 inches.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Friday will be a blustery and much cooler day with passing clouds
and perhaps some sprinkles or spotty light shower or two. The
latest guidance shows a piece of upper level energy moving across
the area especially the central Missouri area with some clouds and
sprinkles possible. Winds will be gusty up to 25 mph and
temperatures struggling to get above 60 degrees.
Skies will clear Friday evening for Friday night football around
the Missouri Ozarks but it will be chilly. The big question will
be the frost potential. Guidance is a degree or two colder again
with lows down in the middle to upper 30s likely. Wouldn`t be
surprise a few colder spots that are protected get down in the
lower 30s. Winds will possibly remain up around 5 mph or so. Will
put back in the mention of patchy frost into the forecast
especially valleys and wind protected areas. The frost potential
will need to be looked at again over the next day for any possible
headlines by Friday. People with sensitive outdoor plants will
need to pay attention to the forecast for Friday night.
Seasonably cool temperatures will stay around for the weekend and
mostly dry conditions and a northwest flow. Guidance shows another
weak mid level disturbance moving through on Monday with a few
more clouds and possible light showers. The overall flow will
flatten by the middle of next week with southerly winds returning.
A moderation in temperatures will return with above normal
temperatures by middle next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 521 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
The main aviation concerns for pilots flying in and out of the
Missouri Ozarks region will be strong to severe convection
developing today through this evening. On going convection this
morning will affect mainly JLN and later SGF. There will be a
small break in convection around midday with additional strong to
severe convection developing by mid to late afternoon.
Have the line of convection moving from west to east affecting JLN
earliest and BBG during the early evening hours. Convection will
taper to VCSH by the evening. There will be ceiling and
visibility drops to low end MVFR if not IFR possible under the
heaviest convection. Gusty and variable winds can be expected
under the strongest convection as well. Winds will generally be
out of ths south today switching to northwest behind a cold front
tonight. Overall trend for tonight will be a drop in ceilings to
low end MVFR flirting with IFR possibly for SGF and BBG.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>081-088-089.
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Griffin
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
248 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2014
...Severe Weather and Heavy Rainfall Expected Across the Missouri
Ozarks Today and This Evening...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 222 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
There will be active weather during the morning commute for some
across the Missouri Ozarks and southeast Kansas. Convection has
been redeveloping across northeast Oklahoma and southeast Kansas
moving slowly to the northeast. The HRRR has been handling this
well and will see this convection continue mainly along and north
of I-44 through mid morning. There will be a risk for stronger
convection to develop this morning with large hail and damaging
wind gusts the main threat along with frequent lightning and heavy
rainfall.
The short term models are in good agreement with the advancing
cold front moving into southeast Kansas by mid afternoon.
Initially discreet convection will develop along and just ahead of
the front between 18-20z. This convection will quickly merge into
a squall line or line segments as the line advances rather quickly
eastward. Followed the HRRR closely for the afternoon convection.
All modes of severe weather will be possible with damaging winds
being the main threat...followed by large hail...and the risk of a
couple isolated tornadoes. The line of storms will be near the
Joplin area by 4 pm and Springfield area by 6 pm. The line will be
clearing the eastern Missouri Ozarks before midnight this evening.
Will leave the ongoing Flash Flood Watch as is with the heaviest
storm total rainfall expected in the watch area where totals will
be between 2 to 5 inches. Areas southeast of I-44 will see totals
between 1 to 2 inches.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Friday will be a blustery and much cooler day with passing clouds
and perhaps some sprinkles or spotty light shower or two. The
latest guidance shows a piece of upper level energy moving across
the area especially the central Missouri area with some clouds and
sprinkles possible. Winds will be gusty up to 25 mph and
temperatures struggling to get above 60 degrees.
Skies will clear Friday evening for Friday night football around
the Missouri Ozarks but it will be chilly. The big question will
be the frost potential. Guidance is a degree or two colder again
with lows down in the middle to upper 30s likely. Wouldn`t be
surprise a few colder spots that are protected get down in the
lower 30s. Winds will possibly remain up around 5 mph or so. Will
put back in the mention of patchy frost into the forecast
especially valleys and wind protected areas. The frost potential
will need to be looked at again over the next day for any possible
headlines by Friday. People with sensitive outdoor plants will
need to pay attention to the forecast for Friday night.
Seasonably cool temperatures will stay around for the weekend and
mostly dry conditions and a northwest flow. Guidance shows another
weak mid level disturbance moving through on Monday with a few
more clouds and possible light showers. The overall flow will
flatten by the middle of next week with southerly winds returning.
A moderation in temperatures will return with above normal
temperatures by middle next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Convection should remain away from the terminals until closer to
daybreak, with storms then affecting JLN, before moving east with
time to impact SGF and BBG. Convection will initially be scattered
in nature during the morning and early afternoon hours, before
becoming better organized during the late afternoon and early
evening as a strong cold front approaches. A line of strong,
perhaps severe, thunderstorms will impact the region from west to
east tomorrow afternoon or evening, though exact timing remains
somewhat in question. IFR or lower is a good bet within stronger
storms tomorrow, along with gusty winds. Have indicated most
likely period for stronger storms with +TSRA mention, though
again, timing is subject to change.
That strong cold front will sweep across the region tomorrow
evening, with a sharp wind shift to the northwest as it passes.
MVFR cigs are then expected behind the front as much colder air
builds in.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>081-088-089.
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Boxell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1246 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2014
Have expanded the Flash Flood Watch to include the remainder of
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois (northwest of St.
Louis Metro). Locations have received heavy rainfall tonight and
expectation is that another few inches of rain overnight and later
today could push some local streams, creeks, rivers out of their
banks. Will also be watching developing line of convection across
central Missouri for any potential of severe wind gusts or hail
over the next few hours as it moves east.
Issued at 853 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014
Forecast looks to be generally on track and I don`t foresee any
major changes for the rest of the evening. Instability is waning,
but obviously there`s enough to keep some rather strong storms
going. Will most likely let WW511 expire naturally at 1000 PM. The
challenge after 1000 PM will be trying to figure out exactly where
the heaviest rain will fall for the rest of the night. It still
looks like the best threat for heavy rain and training will be
over parts of our central Missouri counties. RAP is persistently
showing moderate to strong moisture convergence at 850mb. Storms
this evening have been efficient rain producers, and I expect this
will not change. No change to flash flood watch at this time, and
will probably only tweak PoPs to match current radar trends.
Carney
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014
Lots to keep track of in the next 24 to 36 hours. First: severe
thunderstorms have developed along the outflow boundary in central
Missouri left over from storms earlier today. Modest instability
between 1000-1500 J/Kg combined with around 40 kts bulk shear have
produced a supercell which is riding the boundary. A few more
cells are developing ahead of the big storm and may continue to
strengthen. Expect the severe threat to continue into the early to
mid evening hours...generally along and south of I-70. Should see
storms weaken within a few hours of sunset, but then the low level
jet strengthens in southwest flow ahead of the broad trof over the
Rockies and developing low level circulation over the Plains. This
will bring the second area of concern into play: heavy rain.
Thunderstorms this morning and now this current round of severe
convection will saturate the ground and increase the potential for
flash flooding. Aforementioned 30-40kt low level jet is bringing
plenty of Gulf moisture up into the area. Forecast soundings show
a warm cloud depth of nearly 12,000 FT and BUFKIT is indicating
that individual convective elements may move very slowly and train
over the same locations. Current QPF from WPC shows rainfall in
excess of 3 inches over the next 24 hours with locally higher
amounts in addition to what`s already fallen. Therefore have gone
ahead and pushed a flash flood watch for parts of central,
northeast, and east central Missouri. Watch may need to be
extended further east or northeast tonight as the situation
develops.
Attention turns to tomorrow when the upper level trof moves into the
Great Plains and the associated surface system moves from northern
Oklahoma into eastern Iowa through the day. Our CWFA will be
squarely in the warm sector through the day, and even if there are
no breaks in the clouds temperatures should be at least between 80
and 85...if not a tad bit warmer. With warm, humid airmass in
place, NAM is forecasting SBCAPE values in excess of 2500 J/Kg in
some parts of the CWFA. With 30-40kts of deep layer shear, and the
approaching shortwave becoming negatively tilted , this looks like a
good setup for severe weather during the afternoon and evening
hours. The shear vector looks like it will be parallel to the front
so the most likely convective mode will be a squall line with bows
and LEWPS possible. The front will sweep through the area overnight
Thursday night and we should be into cold advection by 12Z Friday
morning.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 403 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014
Fall returns with a vengeance Friday and Saturday. Temperatures
will drop 25 to 30 degrees behind the front Friday and Saturday. It
will also be pretty breezy behind the front on Friday. Forecast
soundings show some pretty good mixing which is likely to produce
wind gusts in excess of 30 mph. Guidance is hinting at lows in the
30s across most of the area on Saturday morning, and this looks
reasonable given the strength of the cold advection. This could
easily be the coolest night of the season so far.
Temperatures slowly moderate Sunday through next Wednesday. The
highly amplified upper level pattern featuring a strong vortex just
north of the Great Lakes region and a longwave trof over the eastern
1/2 of the CONUS will slowly become more zonal through midweek. By
Wednesday the flow aloft should be nearly zonal and low level warm
advection will bring temperatures back to near or above normal.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014
Ongoing showers and thunderstorms have continued to lift a bit
further northward, so only have vcts mention for taf sites along
I-70 corridor through 12z Thursday. For KUIN, showers to persist
with some thunderstorms through the early morning hours. Will see
a break in the activity during the mid morning hours before more
significant activity fires up ahead of cold front during the
afternoon and evening hours. Winds to persist from the southeast
then veer to the south by mid morning. As cold front approaches,
winds to begin veering to the southwest between 23z Thursday and
03z Friday. Frontal passage will be beyond the forecast period.
Specifics for KSTL:
Ongoing showers and thunderstorms have continued to lift a bit
further northward, so only have vcts mention for metro area through
12z Thursday. Will see a break in the activity during the mid
morning hours before more significant activity fires up ahead of
cold front after 21z Thursday. Winds to persist from the southeast
then veer to the south 12z Thursday. As cold front approaches,
winds to begin veering to the southwest between 23z Thursday and
03z Friday. Frontal passage will be around 09z Friday with
precipitation tapering off.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-
Callaway MO-Cole MO-Gasconade MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln
MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO.
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-
Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-
Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1142 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 853 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014
Forecast looks to be generally on track and I don`t foresee any
major changes for the rest of the evening. Instability is waning,
but obviously there`s enough to keep some rather strong storms
going. Will most likely let WW511 expire naturally at 1000 PM. The
challenge after 1000 PM will be trying to figure out exactly where
the heaviest rain will fall for the rest of the night. It still
looks like the best threat for heavy rain and training will be
over parts of our central Missouri counties. RAP is persistently
showing moderate to strong moisture convergence at 850mb. Storms
this evening have been efficient rain producers, and I expect this
will not change. No change to flash flood watch at this time, and
will probably only tweak PoPs to match current radar trends.
Carney
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014
Lots to keep track of in the next 24 to 36 hours. First: severe
thunderstorms have developed along the outflow boundary in central
Missouri left over from storms earlier today. Modest instability
between 1000-1500 J/Kg combined with around 40 kts bulk shear have
produced a supercell which is riding the boundary. A few more
cells are developing ahead of the big storm and may continue to
strengthen. Expect the severe threat to continue into the early to
mid evening hours...generally along and south of I-70. Should see
storms weaken within a few hours of sunset, but then the low level
jet strengthens in southwest flow ahead of the broad trof over the
Rockies and developing low level circulation over the Plains. This
will bring the second area of concern into play: heavy rain.
Thunderstorms this morning and now this current round of severe
convection will saturate the ground and increase the potential for
flash flooding. Aforementioned 30-40kt low level jet is bringing
plenty of Gulf moisture up into the area. Forecast soundings show
a warm cloud depth of nearly 12,000 FT and BUFKIT is indicating
that individual convective elements may move very slowly and train
over the same locations. Current QPF from WPC shows rainfall in
excess of 3 inches over the next 24 hours with locally higher
amounts in addition to what`s already fallen. Therefore have gone
ahead and pushed a flash flood watch for parts of central,
northeast, and east central Missouri. Watch may need to be
extended further east or northeast tonight as the situation
develops.
Attention turns to tomorrow when the upper level trof moves into the
Great Plains and the associated surface system moves from northern
Oklahoma into eastern Iowa through the day. Our CWFA will be
squarely in the warm sector through the day, and even if there are
no breaks in the clouds temperatures should be at least between 80
and 85...if not a tad bit warmer. With warm, humid airmass in
place, NAM is forecasting SBCAPE values in excess of 2500 J/Kg in
some parts of the CWFA. With 30-40kts of deep layer shear, and the
approaching shortwave becoming negatively tilted , this looks like a
good setup for severe weather during the afternoon and evening
hours. The shear vector looks like it will be parallel to the front
so the most likely convective mode will be a squall line with bows
and LEWPS possible. The front will sweep through the area overnight
Thursday night and we should be into cold advection by 12Z Friday
morning.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 403 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014
Fall returns with a vengeance Friday and Saturday. Temperatures
will drop 25 to 30 degrees behind the front Friday and Saturday. It
will also be pretty breezy behind the front on Friday. Forecast
soundings show some pretty good mixing which is likely to produce
wind gusts in excess of 30 mph. Guidance is hinting at lows in the
30s across most of the area on Saturday morning, and this looks
reasonable given the strength of the cold advection. This could
easily be the coolest night of the season so far.
Temperatures slowly moderate Sunday through next Wednesday. The
highly amplified upper level pattern featuring a strong vortex just
north of the Great Lakes region and a longwave trof over the eastern
1/2 of the CONUS will slowly become more zonal through midweek. By
Wednesday the flow aloft should be nearly zonal and low level warm
advection will bring temperatures back to near or above normal.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014
Ongoing showers and thunderstorms have continued to lift a bit
further northward, so only have vcts mention for taf sites along
I-70 corridor through 12z Thursday. For KUIN, showers to persist
with some thunderstorms through the early morning hours. Will see
a break in the activity during the mid morning hours before more
significant activity fires up ahead of cold front during the
afternoon and evening hours. Winds to persist from the southeast
then veer to the south by mid morning. As cold front approaches,
winds to begin veering to the southwest between 23z Thursday and
03z Friday. Frontal passage will be beyond the forecast period.
Specifics for KSTL:
Ongoing showers and thunderstorms have continued to lift a bit
further northward, so only have vcts mention for metro area through
12z Thursday. Will see a break in the activity during the mid
morning hours before more significant activity fires up ahead of
cold front after 21z Thursday. Winds to persist from the southeast
then veer to the south 12z Thursday. As cold front approaches,
winds to begin veering to the southwest between 23z Thursday and
03z Friday. Frontal passage will be around 09z Friday with
precipitation tapering off.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday evening FOR Audrain MO-Boone
MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Gasconade MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1215 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
SEVERAL TIMING ISSUES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM.
INITIAL FOCUS WILL BE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTING TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA AT 07Z FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A STEADY PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. LATEST RAP HAS THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z. ALSO MAY NEED A
MENTION OF FOG FOR A SHORT TIME THIS MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA
BETWEEN HARLAN AND RED OAK WHERE VSBY IS REPORTED NEAR ZERO. WILL
MONITOR UNTIL ISSUANCE FOR ANY CHANGE AS CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO
SPREAD INTO THAT AREA.
A NEW FEATURE THAT HAS SHOWN UP IN TONIGHTS MODELS IS A SECONDARY
BAND OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO NEBRASKA TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE AND MAINLY FOR WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA AS INDICATED BY 00Z MODELS.
OTHERWISE WEATHER TURNS WINDY AND COLD BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH GOOD POTENTIAL FOR FROST OR FREEZE ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE MENTION
OF THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AND WAIT UNTIL LATER FORECAST FOR
HEADLINES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD UNTIL TOWARDS THE
END OF THE TIME FRAME WHEN ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. POPS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR NOW DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN POSITION AND TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD IMPACT KLNK/KOMA TAF SITES FOR A FEW HOURS
TO BEGIN TAF PERIOD...BUT GENERALLY PRECIP WAS WINDING DOWN ACROSS
ERN NEBR. HOWEVER...CIGS GENERALLY BETWEEN FL010-020 WILL LINGER
THIS AFTN BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN LATER. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE STATE LATE TONIGHT USHERING IN A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BOOST WINDS AND COULD ALSO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS. AT THIS TIME CHANCES APPEARED A LITTLE HIGHER
FROM KOFK TO KLNK WHERE MENTION WAS INCLUDED IN THE 18Z TAF.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...CHERMOK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
628 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
SEVERAL TIMING ISSUES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM.
INITIAL FOCUS WILL BE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTING TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA AT 07Z FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A STEADY PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. LATEST RAP HAS THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z. ALSO MAY NEED A
MENTION OF FOG FOR A SHORT TIME THIS MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA
BETWEEN HARLAN AND RED OAK WHERE VSBY IS REPORTED NEAR ZERO. WILL
MONITOR UNTIL ISSUANCE FOR ANY CHANGE AS CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO
SPREAD INTO THAT AREA.
A NEW FEATURE THAT HAS SHOWN UP IN TONIGHTS MODELS IS A SECONDARY
BAND OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO NEBRASKA TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE AND MAINLY FOR WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA AS INDICATED BY 00Z MODELS.
OTHERWISE WEATHER TURNS WINDY AND COLD BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH GOOD POTENTIAL FOR FROST OR FREEZE ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE MENTION
OF THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AND WAIT UNTIL LATER FORECAST FOR
HEADLINES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD UNTIL TOWARDS THE
END OF THE TIME FRAME WHEN ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. POPS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR NOW DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN POSITION AND TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
IFR CIGS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA TAF SITES THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO AFFECT SITES FROM
TIME TO TIME...REDUCING VSBYS TO BELOW 3SM. NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. AFTER 21Z
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AND CLOUDS SCATTER...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED MID CLOUDS FORECAST BY 00Z. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH TAF SITES LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
251 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
SEVERAL TIMING ISSUES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM.
INITIAL FOCUS WILL BE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTING TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA AT 07Z FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A STEADY PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. LATEST RAP HAS THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z. ALSO MAY NEED A
MENTION OF FOG FOR A SHORT TIME THIS MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA
BETWEEN HARLAN AND RED OAK WHERE VSBY IS REPORTED NEAR ZERO. WILL
MONITOR UNTIL ISSUANCE FOR ANY CHANGE AS CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO
SPREAD INTO THAT AREA.
A NEW FEATURE THAT HAS SHOWN UP IN TONIGHTS MODELS IS A SECONDARY
BAND OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO NEBRASKA TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE AND MAINLY FOR WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA AS INDICATED BY 00Z MODELS.
OTHERWISE WEATHER TURNS WINDY AND COLD BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH GOOD POTENTIAL FOR FROST OR FREEZE ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE MENTION
OF THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AND WAIT UNTIL LATER FORECAST FOR
HEADLINES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD UNTIL TOWARDS THE
END OF THE TIME FRAME WHEN ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. POPS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR NOW DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN POSTION AND TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES. SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KOFK...WITH
POSSIBLE TSRA THROUGH ABOUT 11Z. TSRA MAY IMPACT KLNK BY 09Z AND
KOMA BY 10Z. ABOUT A 2-5 HOUR WIND FOR CONVECTION...THEN INSTABILITY
MOVES EAST AND IT SHOULD END AS SHOWERS. SHOULD ALSO SEE MVFR
CEILING DEVELOP. FOG COULD ALSO IMPACT KOMA BEFORE THE RAIN
ARRIVES. WHEN THE REAL COLD FRONT ARRIVES...WINDS SUBSTANTIALLY
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 22 KNOTS...WITH
WINDS BECOMING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BY 00Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1048 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL DURING
THE DAY. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
ONLY REACHING THE 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1045 PM EDT UPDATE...
DECIDED TO DECREASE POPS IN NEAR TERM AS RADAR TRENDS ARE JUST NOT
IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THAT BEING SAID COVERAGE MAY STILL
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING THUS DECIDED TO LEAVE POPS
THE SAME FOR AFTER 06Z. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST HOLDS.
PREVIOUS FORECAST...
700 PM EDT UPDATE...
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO PUSH INTO THE FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. COVERAGE OVERALL LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK BUT
ACTIVITY SHOULD FILL IN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PWAT VALUES
ARE AROUND AN INCH AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
THUS... WE COULD SEE A STEADY RAIN TONIGHT. DO NOT SEE FLOODING
BEING AN ISSUE TONIGHT AS WE HAVE BEEN DRY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF TIME. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE
MSLP TIGHTENS ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF OHIO.
STILL EXPECT THE FROPA TO BE AFTER 12Z SATURDAY MORNING.
UPDATED TEMPS AND WINDS TO MATCH CURRENT OBS ACROSS THE CWA.
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PLEASE READ THE DISCUSSION BELOW.
PREVIOUS FORECAST...
205 PM UPDATE...
SFC LOPRES SITTING NORTH OF LK MICHIGAN WITH CDFNT EXTNDG SWRD ALONG
THE IN/OH BORDER AND IS ON THE MV EAST. RAIN HAS DVLPD JUST AHD OF
SFC FNT AND HAS NOW MADE IT INTO WRN PA. CURRENT MVMNT HAS IT
EXPECTED TO MV INTO STEUBEN CNTY ARND 21Z. HOWEVER, LATEST HRRR IS
INDICATING PCPN ERODING AS IT HEADS EAST AND NOT SPREADING INTO WRN
SXNS UNTIL 00Z. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE A WET NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR
THE CWA AS SRLY FLOW FM THE GOM HAS WORKED ITS WAY NORTH WITH AN
AREA OF 1.5+ INCHES OF PW VALUES INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LKS.
EXPECT THAT THIS AREA OF MOISTURE WL MV QUICKLY THRU THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH MODERATE SHOWERS EXPECTED AT TIMES. CANNOT RULE OUT A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS K VALUES CLIMB ABV 30 HWVR MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
RMN PUNY BARELY CLIMBING TO 6 C/KM. THUS HV RMVD SLGT CHC THUNDER FM
THE GRIDS AS AM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH POTENTIAL.
THINK THAT WIDESPREAD RAIN WL BE IN AND OUT WITHIN A 3-HR PERIOD OF
TIME. BACK EDGE HAS MADE IT INTO ERN OHIO AND GIVEN SPEED OF SYSTEM
HV SPED UP TIMING ON LINE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS MVG INTO FINGER LKS
CNTYS BY MIDNIGHT AND OUT OF WRN CATS BY 06Z. LINGERING SHOWERS WL
RMN POSSIBLE BHND MAIN TROF THEREFORE HV RETAINED SCT-LKLY POPS THRU
MOST OF THE OVRNGT HRS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...
FROPA OCCURS SAT MRNG LVG COOL AIR IN ITS WAKE AS H8 TEMPS FALL
BLO 0C FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WL SET THE STAGE FOR LK EFFECT
SHOWERS, HWVR WITH FLOW BEING FM THE SW THRU THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM WL LKLY SEE ONLY CLDS SKIRTING THRU NRN ZONES. TEMPS WL RMN
STEADY OR FALL DRG THE DAY ON SATURDAY IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH EARLY HIGHS IN THE U50S/NR 60 THEN FALLING DRG THE DAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR NY CNTYS.
IF SKIES CAN CLR OUT SAT NGT, EXPECT MINS TO DIP INTO THE M30S.
HWVR CURRENT GROWING AREAS (FINGER LKS/WYOMING AND LACKAWANNA
VLYS) WL LKLY RMN IN THE U30S TO PREVENT ANY FROST SUN MRNG. THIS WILL
ALL DEPEND ON CLDS THO.
EXPECT TEMPS THRU THE END OF THE SHORT TERM TO APPCH SEASONAL
VALUES AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM DIVING SOUTH THRU CANADA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM FRI UPDATE... OVERALL...AN UNSETTLED PD IS IN STORE...AS A
DEEP ERN CANADIAN/CONUS TROUGH ONLY SLOWLY RELAXES ITS GRIP NEXT
WEEK.
ONE S/WV ROTATING ARND THE SERN QUADRANT OF THE NRN GREAT
LAKES UPR LOW WILL BRING A GOOD CHC OF SHWRS TUE INTO WED...WITH A
SFC FRNT ULTIMATELY SWEEPING THIS PCPN OFF THE COAST BY WED NGT.
AFTER A PROBABLE LULL ON THU WITH BRIEF S/WV RIDGING ALOFT...THE
NEXT SIG MID-LVL WV...ALG WITH A DVLPG E-W FRNTL ZN...LOOKS TO
IMPACT NY/PA TWDS THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A RENEWED CHC OF SHWRS.
TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR A BIT ABV CLIMO FOR EARLY OCT...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LRG UPR LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS SWINGING A TROF...FLWD BY A
COLD FNT...THRU THE AREA OVRNGT. THIS WILL BRING SHWRS WITH OCNL
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH THE RAIN. SE WINDS AHD OF THE TROF WILL
GO SW...THEN WEST LATE AS THE COLD FNT PASSES. XPCT A RETURN TO
VFR CONDS EARLY SAY BUT WITH THE CAA A FEW SHWRS XPCTD WITH A VFR
CIG. SFC RDGG BHD THE FNT WILL KEEP THE WINDS FROM BCMG VERY GUSTY
DESPITE THE CAA AND MIXING.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NGT TO MON...MAINLY VFR.
MON NGT INTO WED...SHRA WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY
TUE/TUE NGT.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...KAH/PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DGM/MLJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
738 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL DURING
THE DAY. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
ONLY REACHING THE 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
700 PM EDT UPDATE...
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO PUSH INTO THE FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. COVERAGE OVERALL LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK BUT
ACTIVITY SHOULD FILL IN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PWAT VALUES
ARE AROUND AN INCH AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
THUS... WE COULD SEE A STEADY RAIN TONIGHT. DO NOT SEE FLOODING
BEING AN ISSUE TONIGHT AS WE HAVE BEEN DRY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF TIME. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE
MSLP TIGHTENS ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF OHIO.
STILL EXPECT THE FROPA TO BE AFTER 12Z SATURDAY MORNING.
UPDATED TEMPS AND WINDS TO MATCH CURRENT OBS ACROSS THE CWA.
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PLEASE READ THE DISCUSSION BELOW.
PREVIOUS FORECAST...
205 PM UPDATE...
SFC LOPRES SITTING NORTH OF LK MICHIGAN WITH CDFNT EXTNDG SWRD ALONG
THE IN/OH BORDER AND IS ON THE MV EAST. RAIN HAS DVLPD JUST AHD OF
SFC FNT AND HAS NOW MADE IT INTO WRN PA. CURRENT MVMNT HAS IT
EXPECTED TO MV INTO STEUBEN CNTY ARND 21Z. HOWEVER, LATEST HRRR IS
INDICATING PCPN ERODING AS IT HEADS EAST AND NOT SPREADING INTO WRN
SXNS UNTIL 00Z. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE A WET NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR
THE CWA AS SRLY FLOW FM THE GOM HAS WORKED ITS WAY NORTH WITH AN
AREA OF 1.5+ INCHES OF PW VALUES INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LKS.
EXPECT THAT THIS AREA OF MOISTURE WL MV QUICKLY THRU THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH MODERATE SHOWERS EXPECTED AT TIMES. CANNOT RULE OUT A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS K VALUES CLIMB ABV 30 HWVR MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
RMN PUNY BARELY CLIMBING TO 6 C/KM. THUS HV RMVD SLGT CHC THUNDER FM
THE GRIDS AS AM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH POTENTIAL.
THINK THAT WIDESPREAD RAIN WL BE IN AND OUT WITHIN A 3-HR PERIOD OF
TIME. BACK EDGE HAS MADE IT INTO ERN OHIO AND GIVEN SPEED OF SYSTEM
HV SPED UP TIMING ON LINE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS MVG INTO FINGER LKS
CNTYS BY MIDNIGHT AND OUT OF WRN CATS BY 06Z. LINGERING SHOWERS WL
RMN POSSIBLE BHND MAIN TROF THEREFORE HV RETAINED SCT-LKLY POPS THRU
MOST OF THE OVRNGT HRS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...
FROPA OCCURS SAT MRNG LVG COOL AIR IN ITS WAKE AS H8 TEMPS FALL
BLO 0C FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WL SET THE STAGE FOR LK EFFECT
SHOWERS, HWVR WITH FLOW BEING FM THE SW THRU THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM WL LKLY SEE ONLY CLDS SKIRTING THRU NRN ZONES. TEMPS WL RMN
STEADY OR FALL DRG THE DAY ON SATURDAY IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH EARLY HIGHS IN THE U50S/NR 60 THEN FALLING DRG THE DAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR NY CNTYS.
IF SKIES CAN CLR OUT SAT NGT, EXPECT MINS TO DIP INTO THE M30S.
HWVR CURRENT GROWING AREAS (FINGER LKS/WYOMING AND LACKAWANNA
VLYS) WL LKLY RMN IN THE U30S TO PREVENT ANY FROST SUN MRNG. THIS WILL
ALL DEPEND ON CLDS THO.
EXPECT TEMPS THRU THE END OF THE SHORT TERM TO APPCH SEASONAL
VALUES AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM DIVING SOUTH THRU CANADA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM FRI UPDATE... OVERALL...AN UNSETTLED PD IS IN STORE...AS A
DEEP ERN CANADIAN/CONUS TROUGH ONLY SLOWLY RELAXES ITS GRIP NEXT
WEEK.
ONE S/WV ROTATING ARND THE SERN QUADRANT OF THE NRN GREAT
LAKES UPR LOW WILL BRING A GOOD CHC OF SHWRS TUE INTO WED...WITH A
SFC FRNT ULTIMATELY SWEEPING THIS PCPN OFF THE COAST BY WED NGT.
AFTER A PROBABLE LULL ON THU WITH BRIEF S/WV RIDGING ALOFT...THE
NEXT SIG MID-LVL WV...ALG WITH A DVLPG E-W FRNTL ZN...LOOKS TO
IMPACT NY/PA TWDS THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A RENEWED CHC OF SHWRS.
TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR A BIT ABV CLIMO FOR EARLY OCT...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LRG UPR LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS SWINGING A TROF...FLWD BY A
COLD FNT...THRU THE AREA OVRNGT. THIS WILL BRING SHWRS WITH OCNL
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH THE RAIN. SE WINDS AHD OF THE TROF WILL
GO SW...THEN WEST LATE AS THE COLD FNT PASSES. XPCT A RETURN TO
VFR CONDS EARLY SAY BUT WITH THE CAA A FEW SHWRS XPCTD WITH A VFR
CIG. SFC RDGG BHD THE FNT WILL KEEP THE WINDS FROM BCMG VERY GUSTY
DESPITE THE CAA AND MIXING.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NGT TO MON...MAINLY VFR.
MON NGT INTO WED...SHRA WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY
TUE/TUE NGT.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...KAH/PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DGM/MLJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
716 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL DURING
THE DAY. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
ONLY REACHING THE 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
700 PM EDT UPDATE...
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO PUSH INTO THE FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. COVERAGE OVERALL LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK BUT
ACTIVITY SHOULD FILL IN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PWAT VALUES
ARE AROUND AN INCH AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
THUS... WE COULD SEE A STEADY RAIN TONIGHT. DO NOT SEE FLOODING
BEING AN ISSUE TONIGHT AS WE HAVE BEEN DRY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF TIME. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE
MSLP TIGHTENS ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF OHIO.
STILL EXPECT THE FROPA TO BE AFTER 12Z SATURDAY MORNING.
UPDATED TEMPS AND WINDS TO MATCH CURRENT OBS ACROSS THE CWA.
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PLEASE READ THE DISCUSSION BELOW.
PREVIOUS FORECAST...
205 PM UPDATE...
SFC LOPRES SITTING NORTH OF LK MICHIGAN WITH CDFNT EXTNDG SWRD ALONG
THE IN/OH BORDER AND IS ON THE MV EAST. RAIN HAS DVLPD JUST AHD OF
SFC FNT AND HAS NOW MADE IT INTO WRN PA. CURRENT MVMNT HAS IT
EXPECTED TO MV INTO STEUBEN CNTY ARND 21Z. HOWEVER, LATEST HRRR IS
INDICATING PCPN ERODING AS IT HEADS EAST AND NOT SPREADING INTO WRN
SXNS UNTIL 00Z. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE A WET NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR
THE CWA AS SRLY FLOW FM THE GOM HAS WORKED ITS WAY NORTH WITH AN
AREA OF 1.5+ INCHES OF PW VALUES INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LKS.
EXPECT THAT THIS AREA OF MOISTURE WL MV QUICKLY THRU THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH MODERATE SHOWERS EXPECTED AT TIMES. CANNOT RULE OUT A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS K VALUES CLIMB ABV 30 HWVR MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
RMN PUNY BARELY CLIMBING TO 6 C/KM. THUS HV RMVD SLGT CHC THUNDER FM
THE GRIDS AS AM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH POTENTIAL.
THINK THAT WIDESPREAD RAIN WL BE IN AND OUT WITHIN A 3-HR PERIOD OF
TIME. BACK EDGE HAS MADE IT INTO ERN OHIO AND GIVEN SPEED OF SYSTEM
HV SPED UP TIMING ON LINE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS MVG INTO FINGER LKS
CNTYS BY MIDNIGHT AND OUT OF WRN CATS BY 06Z. LINGERING SHOWERS WL
RMN POSSIBLE BHND MAIN TROF THEREFORE HV RETAINED SCT-LKLY POPS THRU
MOST OF THE OVRNGT HRS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...
FROPA OCCURS SAT MRNG LVG COOL AIR IN ITS WAKE AS H8 TEMPS FALL
BLO 0C FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WL SET THE STAGE FOR LK EFFECT
SHOWERS, HWVR WITH FLOW BEING FM THE SW THRU THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM WL LKLY SEE ONLY CLDS SKIRTING THRU NRN ZONES. TEMPS WL RMN
STEADY OR FALL DRG THE DAY ON SATURDAY IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH EARLY HIGHS IN THE U50S/NR 60 THEN FALLING DRG THE DAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR NY CNTYS.
IF SKIES CAN CLR OUT SAT NGT, EXPECT MINS TO DIP INTO THE M30S.
HWVR CURRENT GROWING AREAS (FINGER LKS/WYOMING AND LACKAWANNA
VLYS) WL LKLY RMN IN THE U30S TO PREVENT ANY FROST SUN MRNG. THIS WILL
ALL DEPEND ON CLDS THO.
EXPECT TEMPS THRU THE END OF THE SHORT TERM TO APPCH SEASONAL
VALUES AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM DIVING SOUTH THRU CANADA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM FRI UPDATE... OVERALL...AN UNSETTLED PD IS IN STORE...AS A
DEEP ERN CANADIAN/CONUS TROUGH ONLY SLOWLY RELAXES ITS GRIP NEXT
WEEK.
ONE S/WV ROTATING ARND THE SERN QUADRANT OF THE NRN GREAT
LAKES UPR LOW WILL BRING A GOOD CHC OF SHWRS TUE INTO WED...WITH A
SFC FRNT ULTIMATELY SWEEPING THIS PCPN OFF THE COAST BY WED NGT.
AFTER A PROBABLE LULL ON THU WITH BRIEF S/WV RIDGING ALOFT...THE
NEXT SIG MID-LVL WV...ALG WITH A DVLPG E-W FRNTL ZN...LOOKS TO
IMPACT NY/PA TWDS THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A RENEWED CHC OF SHWRS.
TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR A BIT ABV CLIMO FOR EARLY OCT...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRI UPDATE... LWR CLDS CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY ERODE EARLY THIS
AFTN...AND WE SHOULD EVOLVE TO A SCT-BKN CU FIELD AS THE AFTN
WEARS ON. WE HAVE A MENTION OF LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT
KBGM/KAVP THROUGH 20-21Z...BUT OTHER THAN THAT...WE SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDS INTO THIS EVE.
WE`RE EXPECTING RAIN TO MOVE IN FROM W TO E LTR THIS EVE (ONSET
TIMES OF 02-04Z)...GENERALLY ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR RESTRICTIONS. THE
FRONTAL RAIN BAND LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY NARROW...SO WE ONLY
ANTICIPATE STEADIER PCPN TO LAST 4-5 HRS IN ANY ONE SPOT.
THUS...WE BRING MORE PROMINENT SHWRS OUT OF THE AREA FROM
08-10Z...BUT WITH MVFR CIGS LASTING A BIT LONGER.
ONCE THE MAIN COLD FRNT SLICES THROUGH THE RGN SAT MRNG
(13-15Z)...WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO UNRESTRICTED CONDS.
GUSTY SE SFC WINDS THROUGH THIS EVE...WILL TAPER DOWN A BIT LTR
TNT INTO EARLY SAT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE W POST-FROPA AFTER
13-15Z SAT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NGT TO MON...MAINLY VFR.
MON NGT INTO WED...SHRA WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY
TUE/TUE NGT.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...KAH/PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1042 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND WILL PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10:30 PM FRIDAY...NOTHING BUT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS POINT...NO STRONG
CONVECTION OR LIGHTNING IN EVIDENCE. HAVE LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY
WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON
FOLLOWS:
AS A RIDGE SLIPS FURTHER OFFSHORE A DEEPENING MID TO UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE
WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW LEVEL
WINDS INCREASING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS WITH
DECENT SHEAR BUT CAPE STILL REMAINS LIMITED. AN ISOLATED SHWR OR
TWO MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BUT MAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OR
LINE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS...I95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 2 AND 3
PM THIS AFTN HEADING TOWARD THE COAST BY 8 TO 9PM THIS THIS
EVENING. PCP WATER VALUES AS LOW AS AN INCH THIS MORNING WILL RISE
IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF FRONT. MODELS SHOW PEAK IN PCP
WATER VALUES UP AROUND 2 INCHES IN WESTERN AREAS BETWEEN 4 AND 8
PM AND THE COAST MID TO LATE EVENING...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH
BEST COVERAGE OF SHWRS/TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CAPE
WILL REMAIN VERY MARGINAL BUT FORWARD MOMENTUM OF STORMS AND
DECENT DCAPE VALUES SHOULD SUPPORT POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONGER
WIND GUSTS. THE INCREASINGLY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE END OF DAYTIME HEATING COULD ALSO
HELP TO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE.
WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS FRONT APPROACHES
BUT ACTUAL FROPA WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL SAT MORNING. THEREFORE WILL
KEEP SOME MENTION OF POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WILL TAPER IT OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST. THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND WARMER AIR MASS IN
PLACE WILL KEEP TEMPS UP AROUND 70 CLOSE TO THE COAST BUT SOME
CLEARING OVER WESTERN SECTIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
MID 60S. ANY REAL CAA WILL COME LATER ON SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A TREMENDOUS AIRMASS CHANGE WILL BE UNDERWAY
SATURDAY MORNING...CULMINATING IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE
SEEN IN THE AREA SINCE APRIL. THE FIRST PORTION OF A COLD FRONT
WILL SLIP OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN ON WESTERLY WINDS. AS OFTEN OCCURS LOCALLY WITH
WESTERLY LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NC/SC FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT WILL
HOLD BACK A PORTION OF THE FRONT AND WILL DELAY THE MOST INTENSE
COLD ADVECTION UNTIL AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING. MORNING
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN QUITE MILD (60S AND 70S) AND IT SHOULD NOT
BE TOUGH TO REACH 80-82 NEAR THE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 70S
INLAND. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND SUNRISE MAY HELP
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE CAPE FEAR REGION...BUT DRY
AIR SHOULD END THIS POTENTIAL NO LATER THAN 9-10 AM.
SURFACE WINDS WILL FINALLY SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT
AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE TO +3C TO +4C OVERNIGHT.
WEAKENING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST AND LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH SUNDAY WILL SHIFT EAST
TO THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION WILL BEGIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT TOO LATE FOR HIGHS TO RISE MUCH HIGHER THAN
70 DEGREES EVEN WITH FULL SUNSHINE. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
OVERWHELM ANY SUBTLE WARMING OF THE AIRMASS SUNDAY NIGHT AND WE
SHOULD SEE LOWS FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES.
LOCATION FORECAST LOWS RECORD LOWS
SAT NGT/SUN NGT SAT NGT/ SUN NGT
WILMINGTON 49 46 39(1974) 34(1935)
FLORENCE 44 45 39(1968) 42(1964)
N. MYRTLE BEACH 49 46 48(1952) 47(2010)
LUMBERTON 43 43 NOT YET AVAILABLE
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN US WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NEXT WEEK WITH A SFC HIGH AND
DECENTLY RELAXED GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ONLY FEATURE TO
NOTE AROUND MIDWEEK IS ONE THAT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY ALL
GUIDANCE...AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW. ECMWF
GUIDANCE ILLUSTRATES A MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED DIGGING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...AND WRAPPING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH IS A
DISTURBANCE WHICH EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW...PROPAGATING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AND MOVING OFFSHORE AS A COASTAL LOW AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND...WHICH IS BOTH
WEAKER AND DRIER...HINTS AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE BUT NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT...FOR NOW WILL KEEP VERY LOW
POPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO...BUT GIVEN
THAT ITS DAYS OUT FROM NOW...WILL NOT PUT MUCH EMPHASIS ON IT. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL REMAIN JUST EVER SO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/NEAR 80 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS WITH ISO TSTMS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY
ACROSS OUR INLAND TERMINALS THIS EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR
KFLO EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS. TEMPO
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVE OVER
KFLO/KLBT TONIGHT. THE COASTAL SITES MAY LARGELY MISS OUT ON THIS
FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE HRRR AS WELL AS GFS/NAM RUNS
DEPICT A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR SHRA FROM
04-08Z AT THE COAST. CIGS MAY ALSO NEAR MVFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVE MORE PERSISTENT SHRA.
THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH KFLO/KLBT AROUND 09Z AND REACH THE
COAST BY 12Z. SW WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL VEER TO THE WEST EARLY SAT
MORNING FOLLOWING FROPA. FCST SOUNDINGS HINT AT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
POST-FRONTAL STRATUS...BUT WILL KEEP EVERYTHING JUST ABOVE 1KFT
ATTM. BY MID-MORNING VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES WITH WEST
WINDS 10 KT AND GUSTS OF 15 KT OR SO.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7:30 PM FRIDAY...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS THIS
EVENING AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
SEAS NOW UP IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE AND SHOULD BUILD ANOTHER
FOOT OR SO THIS EVENING. KEEPING EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES IN
EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON
FOLLOWS:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER OFF SHORE AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS
MORNING AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS...INCREASING UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS THIS
EVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL KICK SEAS UP RAPIDLY FROM
1 TO 3 FT THIS MORNING TO 3 TO 5 FT BY LATE THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE WILL INCLUDE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT. THE
WNA SHOWS PEAK OF SEAS IN SOUTHERLY PUSH SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO VEER TO MORE WESTERLY REMAINING UP AROUND 20
KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE OFFSHORE FLOW MAY ALLOW NEAR SHORE SEAS
TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY MORNING BUT EXPECT WIND CHOP MOST OF THE
NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE FIRST PORTION OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING WESTERLY AROUND 15 KNOTS AROUND SUNRISE. AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE LOCALLY...THE SECOND PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL HANG BACK
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
DAY...WAITING UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING TO SURGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE. THIS LAST PORTION OF THE FRONT FINALLY
WILL VEER WINDS NORTHWESTERLY WITH A PERIOD OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS
EXPECTED. BY SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH WIND SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10
KNOTS...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
IT IS POSSIBLE A LINGERING SHOWER COULD STILL OCCUR SATURDAY
MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA`S COASTAL WATERS...
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS AS HIGH
AS 4 FEET SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 2
FEET OR LESS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...WITH A FAIRLY RELAXED GRADIENT AND HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE...WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10
KTS OR LESS. AS A RESULT SEAS WILL BE AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET. INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A BIT OF A DISCREPANCY WITH THE
MODELS AS A POSSIBLE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER TO THE
WATERS...TIGHTENING UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE
WINDS TO REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS WITH SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET...THOUGH
COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW 3 FTERS AT TIMES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...REK/RGZ
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...REK/TRA/RGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
737 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND WILL PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7:30 PM FRIDAY...LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING WELL IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT NOW MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT HAS KEPT CONVECTION ON THE WEAK SIDE...WITH VERY FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND NO WELL ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. EXPECT
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE UPDATED GRIDDED
DATABASE TO REFLECT MOVEMENT OF AREA OF CATEGORICAL POPS FROM WEST
TO EAST OVER THE NEAR TERM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
AS A RIDGE SLIPS FURTHER OFFSHORE A DEEPENING MID TO UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE
WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW LEVEL
WINDS INCREASING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS WITH
DECENT SHEAR BUT CAPE STILL REMAINS LIMITED. AN ISOLATED SHWR OR
TWO MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BUT MAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OR
LINE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS...I95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 2 AND 3
PM THIS AFTN HEADING TOWARD THE COAST BY 8 TO 9PM THIS THIS
EVENING. PCP WATER VALUES AS LOW AS AN INCH THIS MORNING WILL RISE
IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF FRONT. MODELS SHOW PEAK IN PCP
WATER VALUES UP AROUND 2 INCHES IN WESTERN AREAS BETWEEN 4 AND 8
PM AND THE COAST MID TO LATE EVENING...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH
BEST COVERAGE OF SHWRS/TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CAPE
WILL REMAIN VERY MARGINAL BUT FORWARD MOMENTUM OF STORMS AND
DECENT DCAPE VALUES SHOULD SUPPORT POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONGER
WIND GUSTS. THE INCREASINGLY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE END OF DAYTIME HEATING COULD ALSO
HELP TO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE.
WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS FRONT APPROACHES
BUT ACTUAL FROPA WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL SAT MORNING. THEREFORE WILL
KEEP SOME MENTION OF POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WILL TAPER IT OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST. THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND WARMER AIR MASS IN
PLACE WILL KEEP TEMPS UP AROUND 70 CLOSE TO THE COAST BUT SOME
CLEARING OVER WESTERN SECTIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
MID 60S. ANY REAL CAA WILL COME LATER ON SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A TREMENDOUS AIRMASS CHANGE WILL BE UNDERWAY
SATURDAY MORNING...CULMINATING IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE
SEEN IN THE AREA SINCE APRIL. THE FIRST PORTION OF A COLD FRONT
WILL SLIP OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN ON WESTERLY WINDS. AS OFTEN OCCURS LOCALLY WITH
WESTERLY LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NC/SC FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT WILL
HOLD BACK A PORTION OF THE FRONT AND WILL DELAY THE MOST INTENSE
COLD ADVECTION UNTIL AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING. MORNING
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN QUITE MILD (60S AND 70S) AND IT SHOULD NOT
BE TOUGH TO REACH 80-82 NEAR THE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 70S
INLAND. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND SUNRISE MAY HELP
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE CAPE FEAR REGION...BUT DRY
AIR SHOULD END THIS POTENTIAL NO LATER THAN 9-10 AM.
SURFACE WINDS WILL FINALLY SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT
AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE TO +3C TO +4C OVERNIGHT.
WEAKENING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST AND LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH SUNDAY WILL SHIFT EAST
TO THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION WILL BEGIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT TOO LATE FOR HIGHS TO RISE MUCH HIGHER THAN
70 DEGREES EVEN WITH FULL SUNSHINE. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
OVERWHELM ANY SUBTLE WARMING OF THE AIRMASS SUNDAY NIGHT AND WE
SHOULD SEE LOWS FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES.
LOCATION FORECAST LOWS RECORD LOWS
SAT NGT/SUN NGT SAT NGT/ SUN NGT
WILMINGTON 49 46 39(1974) 34(1935)
FLORENCE 44 45 39(1968) 42(1964)
N. MYRTLE BEACH 49 46 48(1952) 47(2010)
LUMBERTON 43 43 NOT YET AVAILABLE
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN US WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NEXT WEEK WITH A SFC HIGH AND
DECENTLY RELAXED GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ONLY FEATURE TO
NOTE AROUND MIDWEEK IS ONE THAT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY ALL
GUIDANCE...AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW. ECMWF
GUIDANCE ILLUSTRATES A MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED DIGGING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...AND WRAPPING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH IS A
DISTURBANCE WHICH EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW...PROPAGATING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AND MOVING OFFSHORE AS A COASTAL LOW AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND...WHICH IS BOTH
WEAKER AND DRIER...HINTS AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE BUT NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT...FOR NOW WILL KEEP VERY LOW
POPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO...BUT GIVEN
THAT ITS DAYS OUT FROM NOW...WILL NOT PUT MUCH EMPHASIS ON IT. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL REMAIN JUST EVER SO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/NEAR 80 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS WITH ISO TSTMS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY
ACROSS OUR INLAND TERMINALS THIS EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR
KFLO EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS. TEMPO
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVE OVER
KFLO/KLBT TONIGHT. THE COASTAL SITES MAY LARGELY MISS OUT ON THIS
FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE HRRR AS WELL AS GFS/NAM RUNS
DEPICT A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR SHRA FROM
04-08Z AT THE COAST. CIGS MAY ALSO NEAR MVFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVE MORE PERSISTENT SHRA.
THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH KFLO/KLBT AROUND 09Z AND REACH THE
COAST BY 12Z. SW WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL VEER TO THE WEST EARLY SAT
MORNING FOLLOWING FROPA. FCST SOUNDINGS HINT AT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
POST-FRONTAL STRATUS...BUT WILL KEEP EVERYTHING JUST ABOVE 1KFT
ATTM. BY MID-MORNING VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES WITH WEST
WINDS 10 KT AND GUSTS OF 15 KT OR SO.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7:30 PM FRIDAY...WINDS NOW FROM THE SOUTH AT AROUND 15 KTS
AND SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. SEAS STILL IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE...BUT SHOULD
BUILD ANOTHER COUPLE OF FEET AS WINDS INCREASE. KEEPING EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINES IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER OFF SHORE AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS
MORNING AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS...INCREASING UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS THIS
EVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL KICK SEAS UP RAPIDLY FROM
1 TO 3 FT THIS MORNING TO 3 TO 5 FT BY LATE THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE WILL INCLUDE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT. THE
WNA SHOWS PEAK OF SEAS IN SOUTHERLY PUSH SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO VEER TO MORE WESTERLY REMAINING UP AROUND 20
KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE OFFSHORE FLOW MAY ALLOW NEAR SHORE SEAS
TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY MORNING BUT EXPECT WIND CHOP MOST OF THE
NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE FIRST PORTION OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING WESTERLY AROUND 15 KNOTS AROUND SUNRISE. AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE LOCALLY...THE SECOND PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL HANG BACK
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
DAY...WAITING UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING TO SURGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE. THIS LAST PORTION OF THE FRONT FINALLY
WILL VEER WINDS NORTHWESTERLY WITH A PERIOD OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS
EXPECTED. BY SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH WIND SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10
KNOTS...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
IT IS POSSIBLE A LINGERING SHOWER COULD STILL OCCUR SATURDAY
MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA`S COASTAL WATERS...
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS AS HIGH
AS 4 FEET SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 2
FEET OR LESS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...WITH A FAIRLY RELAXED GRADIENT AND HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE...WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10
KTS OR LESS. AS A RESULT SEAS WILL BE AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET. INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A BIT OF A DISCREPANCY WITH THE
MODELS AS A POSSIBLE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER TO THE
WATERS...TIGHTENING UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE
WINDS TO REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS WITH SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET...THOUGH
COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW 3 FTERS AT TIMES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...REK/RGZ
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...REK/TRA/RGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
316 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...EARLY IN THE PERIOD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED UP AND DOWN MUCH OF THE COASTLINE. WIND HAS SOME
VARIABILITY TO IT BUT IS MAINLY LIGHT NE. COASTAL LOCATIONS HAVE
TURNED MORE ONSHORE DUE TO SEABREEZE AND AREAS NOT TOO FAR SOUTH
ALSO VEERING DUE TO SYNOPTIC FLOW CHANGE. THE MARINE LAYER HAS LEAD
TO A SPRINKLE OR TWO WITHIN THE AREA OF MORE ENHANCED CU BUT
NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION SHOULD SOON TEAM UP WITH WEAKENING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO MAKE THOSE A THING OF THE PAST. LATER ON THE
REST OF THE REGION WILL GET IN ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC SCALE
VEERING OF THE FLOW AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE PROGRESSES OFF
THE COAST. THIS SHOULD HELP LEAD TO SOME DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WHEN COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS. THE SAME HOLDS TRUE ALONG THE COAST
COMPLIMENTS OF THE SEA BREEZE. INTERESTINGLY GUIDANCE IS NOT MUCH
MORE IN FAVOR OF FOG WHEN COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS. FOR NOW HAVE
JUST ADVERTISED FOG AREA-WIDE MUCH LIKE WE DID LAST NIGHT. HAVE
DEFERRED TO THE EVENING SHIFT TO DETERMINE WHERE IT MAY BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE, IF ANYWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF THE REMNANT
SUBTROPICAL WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. A WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DISAPPEAR FROM THE WEATHER MAP BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS DEEP MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL CAROLINAS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS A VORT MAX WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH STILL BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.
MORNING SUNSHINE FRIDAY AND 850 MB TEMPS OF +14C TO +16C BOTH MEAN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ROCKET INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY BRING RAIN AND EMBEDDED
T-STORMS BY LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SC PEE DEE
REGION...SPREADING EASTWARD TO THE COAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
FORECAST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES LOOK INSUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...AND MY FORECAST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ONLY 0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES. THE PERIOD FOR THE
BEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 00-06Z
SATURDAY...COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST 300 MB DIFFLUENCE WHICH WILL
SUPPORT THE RAIN AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION.
AS OFTEN OCCURS LOCALLY THE FRONT WILL NOT COME THROUGH CLEANLY
IN ONE PIECE. THE SHIFT TO WESTERLY WINDS AND SOME DRIER LOW-LEVEL
AIR WILL ARRIVE AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. THE SIGNIFICANT
COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING WHEN LOW-
LEVEL WINDS FINALLY TURN NORTHWESTERLY AND 850 MB TEMPS START TO
FALL IN EARNEST...REACHING +3C TO +5C BY 12Z SUNDAY. WITH THIS
DELAYED COLD AIR ADVECTION I HAVE TRENDED FORECAST LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES...BETTER MATCHING THE
12Z NAM/GFS MODEL CONSENSUS. MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS REASONABLE
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S INLAND AND
LOWER 80S ON THE COAST...AND WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AROUND 50 ON
THE COAST AND DIPPING INTO THE 40S INLAND.
LOCATION FORECAST LOW SAT NIGHT LAST TIME IT WAS THIS COLD
WILMINGTON 50 MAY 20
FLORENCE 45 APRIL 17
N. MYRTLE BEACH 50 MAY 20
LUMBERTON 44 APRIL 24
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING SUN WILL TRANSITION TO
WEAK 5H RIDGING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE IS A
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY PRESENT IN THE FORECAST. RECENT MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS SHOW AMPLIFICATION OF MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WITH SOME SOLUTIONS SHOWING A CUTOFF DEVELOPING. EITHER
SOLUTION LEADS TO SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT...IN VARYING
STRENGTHS...OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS ALONG A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH
FROM CANADA.
THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TUE NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE CROSS THE CAROLINAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUMP DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION AND WEAK CONVERGENCE/LIFT WITH THE FRONT AND SOME WEAK MID
LEVEL SUPPORT DOES SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PRECIP LATE TUE
AND TUE NIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHC POP AT THIS
TIME GIVEN THAT CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE.
TEMPERATURES START OUT BELOW CLIMO WITH POTENTIAL FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING SUN NIGHT SETTING UP WHAT COULD BE THE COLDEST
MORNING OF THE EARLY FALL SEASON. TEMPS RETURN BACK TO CLIMO MON AND
HANG NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THE HRRR MODEL IS DEPICTING LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE
RESULTANT THIS AFTERNOON. JUST LOOKED AT THE CU OUTSIDE...AND IT
LOOKS PRETTY GOOD SO WILL ADD VCSH TO THE COASTAL TAFS. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WITH FOG AGAIN DEVELOPING WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. FOG WILL MOST DENSE AT LBT. FRIDAY...A WARM DAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. INCREASING CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF A RATHER
STRONG COLD FRONT. ANY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR WELL AFTER THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF TSTMS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY
SAT WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...EARLY ON THERE WILL STILL BE A LIGHT NORTH
AND EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WITH RIDGE AXIS RIGHT OVER THE
REGION. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
AND THE FLOW WILL GENTLY VEER TO SOUTHEAST OR EVEN SOUTH. WITH SUCH
A LIGHT GRADIENT THE WIND SPEED SHALL REMAIN CAPPED AT 10KT OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WIND CHANGE. WITH THE ONLY SWELL-PRODUCING
SYSTEM SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF NANTUCKET AND MOST OF THIS
ENERGY SHOULD BE INTERCEPTED BY CAPE HATTERAS. WNA SPECTRAL
BULLETINS DO HINT AT SOME 2 FT 7 SECOND ENERGY EITHER BYPASSING OR
REFRACTING AROUND HATTERAS ALONG THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE 20NM
ZONES. OTHERWISE THE MAIN WAVE WILL BE JUST THE WIND-GENERATED SEAS
WHICH WILL OBVIOUSLY BE MINIMAL. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL
STILL ONLY CALL FOR A FORECAST OF JUST 2 FT AREA-WIDE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BE QUICKLY DISPLACED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT ZIPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. THIS FRONT
IS THE FIRST REALLY SIGNIFICANT ONE OF THE FALL SEASON AND SHOULD
REACH THE BEACHES OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15
KNOTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...TO 15-20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL
SHIFT WESTERLY AROUND 15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IT WILL
PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE COLD AIR TO BEGIN
BLEEDING SOUTH INTO THE REGION AS WINDS FINALLY TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT. SEAS INITIALLY ONLY 2 FEET
FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO 3-5 FT FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
BUILD NO HIGHER AS WIND DIRECTIONS VEER MORE OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LIMITING THE EFFECTIVE FETCH LENGTH.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SOLID 15 KT NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OVERHEAD LATE SUN WITH WINDS BACKING TO WEST-SOUTHWEST SUN NIGHT AND
MON. WEAK SURFACE HIGH LINGERS OFF THE COAST INTO TUE...MAINTAINING
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL RUN 2
FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MBB/DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
120 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM UPDATE...JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER
AND ADD SPRINKLES ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLY NC. A NORTHEASTERLY
RESULTANT SEA BREEZE HAS IMPORTED SOME LOW LEVEL MARINE AIR
CONTAINING HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CAPE FEAR REGION.
THIS AIR IS THEN BEING LIFTED BY A WELL-DEFINED VORT MAX STREAKING
RIGHT OVERHEAD AT THE CURRENT TIME. THE CONTINUED DRY MID LEVELS
WILL PRECLUDE MEASURABLE RAINFALL ANYWHERE. ADDITIONALLY...THE
ADDED CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED SPRINKLES WILL LIKELY ONLY BE AROUND
FOR THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS...AFTER WHICH TIME THE MOISTURE MAY LINGER
BUT THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CEASE AS THE SENSE OF VORTICITY
ADVECTION CHANGES TO NEGATIVE.
AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...12Z RAOBS FROM BOTH MHX AND CHS SHOW A
SMALL INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MOSTLY MANIFESTED IN THE
LOW LEVELS. A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP IN THE
HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON...ANYWHERE UNDERNEATH THE MAIN SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AT 7KFT BEING FAIR GAME FOR A CLOUD BASE. ON AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
THIS IS CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES. NO CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE REMAINS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY/EARLY
SATURDAY. I HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ADDRESS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE. FOR SATURDAY...GUIDANCE HAS WARMED DRAMATICALLY AS THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS DELAYED EVEN FURTHER WARRANTING A MARKED
INCREASE IN HIGHS FOR SATURDAY...NOW APPROACHING 80 FOR MOST AREAS.
MUCH COOLER SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS AND HIGHS NOT
ECLIPSING THE 70 DEGREE MARK. MONDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST
VIA IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WITH 40S CWA WIDE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY ON THE
ORDER OF 10-15 KNOTS. LATE IN THE DAY THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE REALIGNS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS DROP DOWN TO
AROUND TEN KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THE HRRR MODEL IS DEPICTING LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE
RESULTANT THIS AFTERNOON. JUST LOOKED AT THE CU OUTSIDE...AND IT
LOOKS PRETTY GOOD SO WILL ADD VCSH TO THE COASTAL TAFS. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WITH FOG AGAIN DEVELOPING WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. FOG WILL MOST DENSE AT LBT. FRIDAY...A WARM DAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. INCREASING CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF A RATHER
STRONG COLD FRONT. ANY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR WELL AFTER THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF TSTMS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY
SAT WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...JUST ABOUT AS QUIET AS IT GETS OVER THE
WATER. HIGH PRESSURE COVERING NOT ONLY THE LANDMASS BUT ALSO THE
FIRST FEW HUNDRED MILES OF OCEAN MAKING FOR A VERY LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW. NO REAL SWELL ENERGY TO SPEAK OF SO THE PALTRY WIND WAVE THE
PREDOMINANT SEA STATE. LOOKS LIKE SEAS CAPPED AT 2 FT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY PICK UP IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH A 15-20 KNOT RANGE BY DAYS
END. THE FLOW WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INCREASE BY A COUPLE OF KNOTS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
SATURDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY JUST BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SATURDAY WILL SEE WINDS SUBSIDE AND TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST. SEAS DIMINISH FROM 3-5 FEET LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY TO 2-4 FEET BY LATE SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE VERY TRANQUIL
AS THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS BASICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO OFF THE EAST COAST WILL
BE THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE. THERE IS A DECENT SHORTWAVE RIDING
DOWN IN THE MAIN FLOW THAT MAY PROVIDE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BUT THE LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD NOT MAKE IT TO
THE COASTAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. BY WEDNESDAY EXPECT LOWER
80S FOR HIGHS WITH 60S FOR LOWS ALONG THE COAST WITH 50S INLAND.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
745 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2014
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY... AND CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVER
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM THURSDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING HOLDS OVER NC THIS MORNING. FOG THUS FAR
HAS BEEN A BIT LIGHTER AND MORE PATCHY THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...
PERHAPS DUE IN PART TO AREAS OF SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS DRIFTING OVER THE
AREA... ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL PERTURBATION PASSING ESE
THROUGH THE REGION JUST EAST OF THE INCOMING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGE. ADDITIONAL MID CLOUDS OVER NE NC AND TO THE NE ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW JUST OFF NEW ENGLAND. WE MAY SEE A FEW
SPRINKLES OVER NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING... BUT THE MOISTURE APPEARS TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY APPRECIABLE
PRECIP. THE VERY LIGHT WIND FIELD IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN MAKE FOR A SLOW DISSOLUTION OF THIS MORNING`S FOG... HOWEVER
IF IT REMAINS MORE LIGHT AND PATCHY THROUGH DAYBREAK (IN CONTRAST TO
THE HRRR WHICH DEPICTS WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH SUNRISE)...
WE WOULD THEN SEE SOME SUNSHINE EARLIER THAN YESTERDAY.
REGARDLESS... FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT (JUST ABOVE 700 MB) FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. MANY OF THE CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAM/GFS AND SREF PROBABILITIES
SUGGEST THAT A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS WILL POP UP THIS AFTERNOON...
PROMPTED BY HEATING WHICH SHOULD YIELD PERHAPS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE... ALMOST ALL BELOW 700 MB. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ORIENTED
ALONG THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL ZONE MOVING NE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL BRING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM MID-LATE
AFTERNOON STRETCHING THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS DEWPOINTS CREEP UPWARD A BIT OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM
FRONTAL ZONE... EXPECT YET ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT FOG... BUT THIS
FOG SHOULD STAY LIGHT GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF STRATOCUMULUS TO CURB
NOCTURNAL COOLING. HIGHS FROM 78 NE TO 84 SW... WITH THICKNESSES
RUNNING NEARLY 10 M ABOVE NORMAL. MILD LOWS TONIGHT OF 60-64. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...
LATEST MODEL OUTPUT ARE IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF
POTENT MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ITS ATTENDING
LARGE SCALE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NOAM... AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. WE GET FULLY INTO THE WARM SECTOR
DURING FRI MORNING... AND THE FRONT ITSELF SHOULD GET INTO WRN NC BY
MID EVENING... AND THEN SWEEP EASTWARD OVERNIGHT... REACHING THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY DAYBREAK. MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT... WITH PW VALUES CLIMBING QUICKLY FROM AROUND 1 INCH
TO AT OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE KINEMATICS
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE DECENT... WITH A 35-40 KT SWRLY LOW LEVEL JET
ALIGNED JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR
INCREASING TO 30 (EAST) TO 50 (EAST) KTS FRI NIGHT. BUT THE
PROJECTED MUCAPE VALUES ARE MINOR... PEAKING AT JUST 250-500 J/KG...
MADE WORSE BY THE LOSS OF HEATING WITH AN EVENING/NIGHT PASSAGE.
DYNAMICS ARE BETTER BUT SIMILARLY MUTED... GIVEN THAT THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE TRACKING ENE OVER NC IS RATHER WEAK... AND THE BULK OF THE
HEIGHT FALLS ARE HELD TO OUR NW OVER THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY
CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL VORTEX. BUT GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELD AND
UPPER DIVERGENCE MAX SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE AREA... STILL EXPECT
GOOD SHOWER/ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE. WILL BRING IN LOW CHANCE POPS
WEST BY MID AFTERNOON... SPREADING EASTWARD WITH HIGH POPS TOPPING
OUT AT 60-80% IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT... BEFORE STARTING TO PUSH
OUT OF THE CWA TOWARD MORNING. OVERALL QPF LOOKS MEAGER WITH THIS
EVENT... LIKELY TOTALLING A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THE LOW POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY WILL GREATLY CUT THE SEVERE THREAT... ALTHOUGH A FEW
BOWING SEGMENTS MAY BRING DOWN SOME OF THE 30-40 KTS OF WIND FROM
ALOFT... EVEN WITH JUST SHOWERS. HIGHS NEAR 80 NW (WHERE CLOUDS
SHOULD BE FIRST TO SPREAD IN DURING THE AFTERNOON) TO 85 SE. LOWS 57
NW TO 66 SE. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NC EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
AHEAD OF IT...EXITING THE AREA BY NOON SATURDAY. ONCE THE RAIN ENDS
SATURDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE RAINFALL CHANCES
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...MOVING NE OVER NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A RELATIVELY COOL
AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S SATURDAY AND MID 60S EVERYWHERE SUNDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR...LOW
40S NW TO UPPER 40S SE. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE CHILLY...MID 40S
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK...
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S MONDAY INCREASING TO MID TO UPPER 70S BY
WEDNESDAY. LOWS 50-55 DEGREES MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASING INTO THE 55-
60 DEGREE RANGE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM THURSDAY...
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD FOG WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND
STRATUS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS AT CENTRAL NC TAF
SITES HAVE VARIED AMONG MVFR AND IFR/LIFR OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...
WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AT RWI. THESE ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL SITES BETWEEN 13Z AND
15Z... AND TO VFR BY 17Z. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW AT CENTRAL NC
TAF SITES... ALTHOUGH PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THIS
MORNING COULD BRING AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR TWO TO RDU/RWI. AND
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED VERY LIGHT (VFR) SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LARGELY CALM THROUGH
MID MORNING... THEN REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUT PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SE. PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOG MAY FORM ONCE
AGAIN LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD (AFTER 06Z FRI)... AND THIS
SHOULD HOLD THROUGH DAYBREAK FRI MORNING.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z EARLY FRI MORNING... EXPECT IMPROVEMENT OF VSBYS
TO VFR DURING MID-LATE FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING INCREASING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FRI EVENING
THROUGH FRI NIGHT... EXITING THE EASTERN TAFS EARLY SAT MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT AFTERNOON... LASTING THROUGH
MONDAY... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
310 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2014
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY... AND CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVER
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM THURSDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING HOLDS OVER NC THIS MORNING. FOG THUS FAR
HAS BEEN A BIT LIGHTER AND MORE PATCHY THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...
PERHAPS DUE IN PART TO AREAS OF SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS DRIFTING OVER THE
AREA... ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL PERTURBATION PASSING ESE
THROUGH THE REGION JUST EAST OF THE INCOMING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGE. ADDITIONAL MID CLOUDS OVER NE NC AND TO THE NE ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW JUST OFF NEW ENGLAND. WE MAY SEE A FEW
SPRINKLES OVER NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING... BUT THE MOISTURE APPEARS TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY APPRECIABLE
PRECIP. THE VERY LIGHT WIND FIELD IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN MAKE FOR A SLOW DISSOLUTION OF THIS MORNING`S FOG... HOWEVER
IF IT REMAINS MORE LIGHT AND PATCHY THROUGH DAYBREAK (IN CONTRAST TO
THE HRRR WHICH DEPICTS WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH SUNRISE)...
WE WOULD THEN SEE SOME SUNSHINE EARLIER THAN YESTERDAY.
REGARDLESS... FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT (JUST ABOVE 700 MB) FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. MANY OF THE CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAM/GFS AND SREF PROBABILITIES
SUGGEST THAT A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS WILL POP UP THIS AFTERNOON...
PROMPTED BY HEATING WHICH SHOULD YIELD PERHAPS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE... ALMOST ALL BELOW 700 MB. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ORIENTED
ALONG THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL ZONE MOVING NE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL BRING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM MID-LATE
AFTERNOON STRETCHING THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS DEWPOINTS CREEP UPWARD A BIT OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM
FRONTAL ZONE... EXPECT YET ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT FOG... BUT THIS
FOG SHOULD STAY LIGHT GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF STRATOCUMULUS TO CURB
NOCTURNAL COOLING. HIGHS FROM 78 NE TO 84 SW... WITH THICKNESSES
RUNNING NEARLY 10 M ABOVE NORMAL. MILD LOWS TONIGHT OF 60-64. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...
LATEST MODEL OUTPUT ARE IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF
POTENT MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ITS ATTENDING
LARGE SCALE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NOAM... AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. WE GET FULLY INTO THE WARM SECTOR
DURING FRI MORNING... AND THE FRONT ITSELF SHOULD GET INTO WRN NC BY
MID EVENING... AND THEN SWEEP EASTWARD OVERNIGHT... REACHING THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY DAYBREAK. MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT... WITH PW VALUES CLIMBING QUICKLY FROM AROUND 1 INCH
TO AT OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE KINEMATICS
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE DECENT... WITH A 35-40 KT SWRLY LOW LEVEL JET
ALIGNED JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR
INCREASING TO 30 (EAST) TO 50 (EAST) KTS FRI NIGHT. BUT THE
PROJECTED MUCAPE VALUES ARE MINOR... PEAKING AT JUST 250-500 J/KG...
MADE WORSE BY THE LOSS OF HEATING WITH AN EVENING/NIGHT PASSAGE.
DYNAMICS ARE BETTER BUT SIMILARLY MUTED... GIVEN THAT THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE TRACKING ENE OVER NC IS RATHER WEAK... AND THE BULK OF THE
HEIGHT FALLS ARE HELD TO OUR NW OVER THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY
CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL VORTEX. BUT GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELD AND
UPPER DIVERGENCE MAX SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE AREA... STILL EXPECT
GOOD SHOWER/ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE. WILL BRING IN LOW CHANCE POPS
WEST BY MID AFTERNOON... SPREADING EASTWARD WITH HIGH POPS TOPPING
OUT AT 60-80% IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT... BEFORE STARTING TO PUSH
OUT OF THE CWA TOWARD MORNING. OVERALL QPF LOOKS MEAGER WITH THIS
EVENT... LIKELY TOTALLING A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THE LOW POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY WILL GREATLY CUT THE SEVERE THREAT... ALTHOUGH A FEW
BOWING SEGMENTS MAY BRING DOWN SOME OF THE 30-40 KTS OF WIND FROM
ALOFT... EVEN WITH JUST SHOWERS. HIGHS NEAR 80 NW (WHERE CLOUDS
SHOULD BE FIRST TO SPREAD IN DURING THE AFTERNOON) TO 85 SE. LOWS 57
NW TO 66 SE. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NC EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
AHEAD OF IT...EXITING THE AREA BY NOON SATURDAY. ONCE THE RAIN ENDS
SATURDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE RAINFALL CHANCES
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...MOVING NE OVER NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A RELATIVELY COOL
AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S SATURDAY AND MID 60S EVERYWHERE SUNDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR...LOW
40S NW TO UPPER 40S SE. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE CHILLY...MID 40S
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK...
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S MONDAY INCREASING TO MID TO UPPER 70S BY
WEDNESDAY. LOWS 50-55 DEGREES MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASING INTO THE 55-
60 DEGREE RANGE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM THURSDAY...
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH STRATUS AND FOG IS
LIKELY TO DOMINATE THIS MORNING. WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE
INCLUDING VERY LIGHT OR CALM WINDS AREAWIDE AND A LACK OF CLOUDS
PROMOTING SURFACE COOLING DOWN TO THE DEWPOINTS... PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH VSBYS UNDER A HALF MILE IS LIKELY TO SPREAD AND FILL IN OVER
NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL NC EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. THESE ADVERSE
AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL
SITES BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z... AND TO VFR BY 17Z. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
VERY LOW AT CENTRAL NC TAF SITES... ALTHOUGH PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THIS MORNING COULD BRING AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR
TWO TO RDU/RWI. AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED VERY LIGHT (VFR) SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LARGELY CALM
THROUGH MID MORNING... THEN REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SE. PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOG MAY FORM
ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD (AFTER 04Z FRI).
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY FRI MORNING... PATCHY FOG SHOULD HOLD
THROUGH DAYBREAK FRI MORNING... FOLLOWED BY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
DURING MID-LATE FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FRI EVENING
THROUGH FRI NIGHT... EXITING THE EASTERN TAFS EARLY SAT MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT AFTERNOON... LASTING THROUGH
MONDAY... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
240 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2014
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY... AND CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVER
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM THURSDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING HOLDS OVER NC THIS MORNING. FOG THUS FAR
HAS BEEN A BIT LIGHTER AND MORE PATCHY THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...
PERHAPS DUE IN PART TO AREAS OF SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS DRIFTING OVER THE
AREA... ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL PERTURBATION PASSING ESE
THROUGH THE REGION JUST EAST OF THE INCOMING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGE. ADDITIONAL MID CLOUDS OVER NE NC AND TO THE NE ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW JUST OFF NEW ENGLAND. WE MAY SEE A FEW
SPRINKLES OVER NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING... BUT THE MOISTURE APPEARS TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY APPRECIABLE
PRECIP. THE VERY LIGHT WIND FIELD IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN MAKE FOR A SLOW DISSOLUTION OF THIS MORNING`S FOG... HOWEVER
IF IT REMAINS MORE LIGHT AND PATCHY THROUGH DAYBREAK (IN CONTRAST TO
THE HRRR WHICH DEPICTS WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH SUNRISE)...
WE WOULD THEN SEE SOME SUNSHINE EARLIER THAN YESTERDAY.
REGARDLESS... FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT (JUST ABOVE 700 MB) FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. MANY OF THE CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAM/GFS AND SREF PROBABILITIES
SUGGEST THAT A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS WILL POP UP THIS AFTERNOON...
PROMPTED BY HEATING WHICH SHOULD YIELD PERHAPS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE... ALMOST ALL BELOW 700 MB. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ORIENTED
ALONG THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL ZONE MOVING NE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL BRING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM MID-LATE
AFTERNOON STRETCHING THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS DEWPOINTS CREEP UPWARD A BIT OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM
FRONTAL ZONE... EXPECT YET ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT FOG... BUT THIS
FOG SHOULD STAY LIGHT GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF STRATOCUMULUS TO CURB
NOCTURNAL COOLING. HIGHS FROM 78 NE TO 84 SW... WITH THICKNESSES
RUNNING NEARLY 10 M ABOVE NORMAL. MILD LOWS TONIGHT OF 60-64. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY: THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL BE THE DRIVING
MECHANISMS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AS IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS...THE MAIN THREAT OF CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE WEST...AND UNTIL THE EVENING IN THE CENTRAL
AND EAST. SOME MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO
AREAS MAY NOT SEE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER UNTIL LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH THE DETAILS
OF TIMING AND QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT... EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE
TRENDING TOWARD THE AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTION. FOR NOW... FRIDAY
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S... EXCEPT 75-80 IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. POP WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE TIME FRAME OF 400 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT HIGHEST POP
IN THE WEST... AND 800 PM THROUGH 400 AM HIGHEST IN THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. A LEAD CONVECTIVE LINE MAY RIDE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES... FOLLOWED BY CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT ITSELF. QPF APPEARS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.50 IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT... WITH AVERAGE AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 IN THE SE (DUE
TO WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO OVERNIGHT TIMING IN THE
EASTERN ZONES).
THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR EXPECTED. ALSO... TIMING OF THE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE EAST WILL BE LATER INTO THE NOCTURNAL CYCLE... THUS THE
WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED. -PWB
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NC EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
AHEAD OF IT...EXITING THE AREA BY NOON SATURDAY. ONCE THE RAIN ENDS
SATURDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE RAINFALL CHANCES
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...MOVING NE OVER NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A RELATIVELY COOL
AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S SATURDAY AND MID 60S EVERYWHERE SUNDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR...LOW
40S NW TO UPPER 40S SE. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE CHILLY...MID 40S
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK...
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S MONDAY INCREASING TO MID TO UPPER 70S BY
WEDNESDAY. LOWS 50-55 DEGREES MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASING INTO THE 55-
60 DEGREE RANGE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM THURSDAY...
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH STRATUS AND FOG IS
LIKELY TO DOMINATE THIS MORNING. WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE
INCLUDING VERY LIGHT OR CALM WINDS AREAWIDE AND A LACK OF CLOUDS
PROMOTING SURFACE COOLING DOWN TO THE DEWPOINTS... PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH VSBYS UNDER A HALF MILE IS LIKELY TO SPREAD AND FILL IN OVER
NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL NC EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. THESE ADVERSE
AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL
SITES BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z... AND TO VFR BY 17Z. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
VERY LOW AT CENTRAL NC TAF SITES... ALTHOUGH PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THIS MORNING COULD BRING AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR
TWO TO RDU/RWI. AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED VERY LIGHT (VFR) SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LARGELY CALM
THROUGH MID MORNING... THEN REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SE. PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOG MAY FORM
ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD (AFTER 04Z FRI).
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY FRI MORNING... PATCHY FOG SHOULD HOLD
THROUGH DAYBREAK FRI MORNING... FOLLOWED BY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
DURING MID-LATE FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FRI EVENING
THROUGH FRI NIGHT... EXITING THE EASTERN TAFS EARLY SAT MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT AFTERNOON... LASTING THROUGH
MONDAY... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...PWB
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
710 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
LET WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AS WINDS SAFELY BELOW
ADVSIORY LEVELS. OTHERWISE COMPOSITE CANADIAN/US RADARS SHOW MAIN
BAND OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL DROPPING SOUTH FAIRLY QUICKLY AND NOW
CENTERED AROUND BEMIDJI-BAGLEY-PARK RAPIDS REGION. THIS WILL
PRODUCE QUICK COATING TO 1 INCH AS TEMPS FALL TO NEAR 32F AS THIS
MODERATE SNOW FALLS. TEMPS UPSTREAM CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S
AS SNOW ENDS AND RETURNS TO A LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. THIS BATCH OF
LIGHT SNOW WILL EXIT THE FCST AREA 03Z PERIOD...LEAVING JUST LIGHT
PRECIP IN THE FAR EASTERN FCST AREA THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW. OTHER ISSUE IS DEGREE OF CLOUD CLEARING IN ERN
ND/RRV. LARGE HOLE IN THE CLOUDS ON WESTERN EDGE OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY FROM WEST OF PORTAGE MANITOBA TO JUST WEST OF GFK. BAND OF
CLOUDS WEST OF THIS BACK THRU DVL-MOT-JMS. HRRR INSISTS THE CLOUDS
OVER ERN ND WILL GO AWAY TONIGHT AND BRING CLEARING INTO THE RRV
QUITE EARLY TONIGHT. UNSURE OF THIS BUT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED AS
EARLIER THAN EXPECTED CLEARING MAY RESULT IN A FEW DEGREES COLDER
TEMPS IN THE IMMEDIATE RRV. DID REMOVE FROST WORDING FROM GRIDS AS
THERE WILL NOT BE FROST WITH THE WIND AT LEAST HOLDING UP SOME
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE SNOW THREAT THIS EVENING IN NW
MN...THEN MORE PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL
AGREEMENT...WITH NO PREFERENCE TODAY.
FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIE DOWN THIS EVENING BUT STILL REMAIN
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A BAND OF SNOW MOVING INTO NW
MN...WITH SOME AREAS FROM NEAR ROSEAU INTO THE BEMIDJI AREA
GETTING AN INCH...PERHAPS UP TO 2 ON GRASSY SURFACES. TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 30S HERE. THE FAR WEST WILL HAVE THE
CHANCE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZE WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30...SO WILL ISSUE THE FREEZE WARNING HERE. FOR AREAS IN
THE VALLEY...EXPECT MORE CLOUDS TO REMAIN WITH WINDS HIGH ENOUGH
TO KEEP TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND 33...SO NOT EXPECTING A FREEZE
HERE. IF THIS AREA CLEARS AT ALL AND WINDS DECOUPLE SOME...THEN
THE FREEZE WARNING WOULD NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO THE EAST.
ON SATURDAY...EXPECT A DRY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR
ALL AREAS...AND IT COULD BECOME BREEZY BUT WINDS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG AS TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
FOR SUNDAY...EXPECT A DRY AND COOL DAY...ALBEIT A BIT WARMER FROM
SATURDAYS READINGS.
ON MONDAY..AN UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THERE SHOULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE NORTH DURING THE
MORNING...WITH SOME COLD RAIN BY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL...AND MAY BE EVEN COLDER IF THERE IS MORE PRECIP
AROUND THAN MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN CHALLENGE AT THE BEGINNING
OF THIS PERIOD IS STILL THE EVOLUTION OF A BROAD VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INITIALLY OVER ONTARIO. THIS COMPLEX
SHOULD HAVE RETROGRADED OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST TIME FRAME...AND BE IN THE PROCESS OF A MIGRATION TO
THE EAST AS THE EXTENDED PACKAGE BEGINS. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A
MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
QUICKLY THIS WILL OCCUR AS MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY GFS...IS
OFTEN TOO SWIFT IN MOVING SYSTEMS PROGRESSIVELY FROM WEST TO EAST.
AS THE FLOW DE-AMPLIFIES SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CREEPING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE "MORE
SEASONAL" 50S BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
QUESTION IS CLOUD CLEARING TRENDS AT DVL-FAR-GFK. SOME SHORT TERM
MODELS CLEAR THINGS OUT PRETTY QUICK THIS EVENING. BUT WAS A BIT
SLOWER AND KEPT VFR BKN CLOUDS AROUND THIS EVE IN DVL AND INTO THE
LATE NIGHT AT GFK-FAR. FARTHER EAST BEMIDJI WILL SEE LOW END MVFR
AND RAIN/SNOW THIS EVE...WITH CURRENT BAND OF SNOW MOVING THRU
LETTING UP AND CHANGING TO RAIN BY 02Z. SLOWLY IMPROVED CIGS BJI
AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ALL PLACES WILL SEE NORTHWEST
WIND 10 TO 25 KTS AFTER THEY DIE DOWN AT SUNSET...WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS STILL THRU THE NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AGAIN
SATURDAY 15 TO 25 KT RANGE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-
015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...WJB/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
640 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THEN ANOTHER TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AMPLE MOISTURE UPSTREAM SHOULD LEND ITSELF TO A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
LATEST RAP AND NAM RUNS INDICATE CLEARING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...BUT THE CURRENT
SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO SUGGEST OTHERWISE WITH MID
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SO
THE SKY FORECAST LENDS ITSELF TO PERSISTENCE RATHER THAN MODEL
OUTPUT...AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS WELL. HOWEVER...THE
HIGHER POPS WILL BE IN THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THEN DECREASE EASTWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE PROBLEM IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD
EAST AND WILL THE THUNDERSTORMS BE WIDESPREAD OR JUST A CHANCE. WILL
SPREAD THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHAT QUICKLY EAST
ON FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A LITTLE QUICKER. AT THIS TIME
STILL KEPT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO A CHANCE. WE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
SHEAR AND THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH IF THE AIRMASS
BECAME UNSTABLE WE COULD HAVE SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THIS THREAT WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED.
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL END QUICKLY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE COULD BE A LITTLE LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE EVENING
ESPECIALLY WEST OF CLE AND AKRON.
AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THAT WILL MEAN SHOWERS LIKELY.
ON SATURDAY A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS AN UPPER TROF
MOVES THROUGH.
A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AS TROFS MOVE THROUGH.
WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH THE
UPPER TROF IN THE AREA. STARTING WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW BEGINS
TO PULL AWAY LEAVING THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION MORE ZONAL...THAT
IS ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND GFSENS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH
THIS TRANSITION AND BRINGS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND MAKING FOR ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY. WILL TAKE NOTE OF THIS...BUT CONTINUE
THE FORECAST IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE TROUGH SLOWLY PULLING
OUT. THAT WILL LEAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND FOR NOW KEEPING THURSDAY DRY. LOWS WILL
STICK IN THE 40S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AND BY
THURSDAY RETURN CLOSER TO NORMALS...WHICH THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
AND BEGIN TO INCREASE EVEN BEFORE MORNING FOR MFD/CLE/ERI. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR A CONCERN PRE-DAWN FOR TOL/FDY. COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS CERTAIN AND
THUNDER A GOOD POSSIBILITY FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD. FRONTAL
PASSAGE NOT UNTIL AFTER 18Z.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY NE OH/NW PA...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP
TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY START AS EARLY AS THE MORNING FOR
THE WESTERN BASIN WITH WINDS GETTING NEAR THE 20-25 KNOT MINIMUM.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT THAT WILL PASS DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WINDS AND CONDITIONS
ON THE LAKE WILL DETERIORATE AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR SEVERAL DAYS. A
GOOD PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL BRING WINDS UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND BY THEN A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS A CERTAINTY. THE LOW GETS HUNG UP ACROSS
CENTRAL ONTARIO/NORTHERN LAKES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE WSW GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY TIGHT
AND A PERIOD OF 20-30 KNOTS WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WINDS BECOME A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LOW WILL STILL LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1219 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
TSRA POTENTIAL HIGH AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FIRST 6 TO 9
HOURS OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
HAIL AND SHIFTING WINDS. WILL HANDLE ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
AMENDMENTS WITH THE EXPECTED LINE OF TSRA NOT YET FORMED. COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MOST OF THE
TERMINALS TOMORROW MORNING...BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS. MVFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS FOLLOWING THE FIRST FRONT BEFORE
THEY LIFT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
MORNING STORMS HAVE BEHAVED ABOUT AS EXPECTED...WITH SPORADIC HAIL
AND EVEN A DAMAGING WIND REPORT. EXCEPT IN A COUPLE OF STORMS...THE
OVERALL INTENSITY TREND HAS BEEN DOWN SINCE SUNRISE. HRRR HANDLING
THIS QUITE WELL.
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
THIS TIME...EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO ABOUT OKC AND
INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY CONTINUES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...ESPECIALLY IN
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THAT HAVE
NOT SEEN ANY STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS CURRENTLY RELATIVELY LOW
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER SYSTEM JUST EAST OF
THE ROCKIES MOVES CLOSER. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD LEAD
TO A LINEAR STORM MODE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS. 0-3KM SHEAR VECTORS ARE PERPENDICULAR TO THE
EXPECTED SQUALL LINE MOVEMENT...BUT THE MAGNITUDES ARE RELATIVELY
WEAK...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR LEADING EDGE
TORNADOES. THE THREAT WILL DEFINITELY NOT BE ZERO THOUGH.
THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS SHOULD CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY AN HOUR
OR TWO AFTER SUNSET...IF NOT BY SUNSET IF THE HRRR TIMING
VERIFIES. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO SEE
THE LINE OF STORMS BEFORE SUNSET...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
NOT AFFECT THE LINES INTENSITY. HAVE INCREASED THE CONDITIONAL
SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
PRODUCTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UPDATED THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON TO KEEP UP WITH THE RADAR TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
PRETTY COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST TODAY...WITH LOW CIGS AND
TSRA TO CONTEND WITH. THE MORNING STORMS ARE LIKELY DONE AFFECT
THE TAF SITES...SO THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE AFTERNOON. USED THE
LATEST HRRR DATA COMBINED WITH PREV FORECAST TO HONE IN ON THE
SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW OF BEST OPPORTUNITY AT EACH TAF SITE. TSRA
SHOULD CLEAR ALL OF THE TERMINALS BY ABOUT 03Z THIS EVENING. AS
FOR THE LOW CLOUDS...THERE IS SOME MVFR STRATUS AT KFSM AND THIS
COULD MOVE INTO KMLC LATER. THE RUC/NAM MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST
LOW CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT
INITIALLY...AND THEN GRADUALLY CLEAR THINGS OUT OVER EASTERN OK
TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST.
LACY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND WITHIN STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET AXIS THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH A THREAT OF MARGINAL WIND GUSTS AND HAIL BUT
SEVERE PROBABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LOW WITH THE INITIAL ACTIVITY.
APPEARS NOW THAT THIS SHOULD MOVE OFF FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER LARGE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT
CURRENTLY LIES FROM TX PANHANDLE TO NE KANSAS. UPPER WAVE
EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE
SHEAR AS WELL...LEADING TO RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT LATER TODAY. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
AND FAVOR LINEAR STORM MODE...HOWEVER SOME INITIAL ALBEIT SHORT-
LIVED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT SEEMS PROBABLE. THUS ALL MODES OF
SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH STORMS ENDING ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS BEFORE 06Z. DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER GREAT LAKES REGION FRI/SAT WILL
HELP BRING A SECOND STRONGER SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS...
ESPECIALLY BY SAT MORNING WHEN MANY AREAS WILL SEE UPPER 30S AND
LOW 40S. NICE WEEKEND WILL FOLLOW WITH A STRONG WARM UP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS QUICKLY RETURN FROM THE SOUTH.
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH MONDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
VERY LIMITED AT THAT TIME AND HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY MID WEEK WITH MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
WHAT WE SAW THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1034 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
MORNING STORMS HAVE BEHAVED ABOUT AS EXPECTED...WITH SPORADIC HAIL
AND EVEN A DAMAGING WIND REPORT. EXCEPT IN A COUPLE OF STORMS...THE
OVERALL INTENSITY TREND HAS BEEN DOWN SINCE SUNRISE. HRRR HANDLING
THIS QUITE WELL.
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
THIS TIME...EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO ABOUT OKC AND
INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY CONTINUES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...ESPECIALLY IN
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THAT HAVE
NOT SEEN ANY STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS CURRENTLY RELATIVELY LOW
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER SYSTEM JUST EAST OF
THE ROCKIES MOVES CLOSER. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD LEAD
TO A LINEAR STORM MODE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS. 0-3KM SHEAR VECTORS ARE PERPENDICULAR TO THE
EXPECTED SQUALL LINE MOVEMENT...BUT THE MAGNITUDES ARE RELATIVELY
WEAK...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR LEADING EDGE
TORNADOES. THE THREAT WILL DEFINITELY NOT BE ZERO THOUGH.
THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS SHOULD CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY AN HOUR
OR TWO AFTER SUNSET...IF NOT BY SUNSET IF THE HRRR TIMING
VERIFIES. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO SEE
THE LINE OF STORMS BEFORE SUNSET...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
NOT AFFECT THE LINES INTENSITY. HAVE INCREASED THE CONDITIONAL
SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
PRODUCTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UPDATED THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON TO KEEP UP WITH THE RADAR TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
PRETTY COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST TODAY...WITH LOW CIGS AND
TSRA TO CONTEND WITH. THE MORNING STORMS ARE LIKELY DONE AFFECT
THE TAF SITES...SO THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE AFTERNOON. USED THE
LATEST HRRR DATA COMBINED WITH PREV FORECAST TO HONE IN ON THE
SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW OF BEST OPPORTUNITY AT EACH TAF SITE. TSRA
SHOULD CLEAR ALL OF THE TERMINALS BY ABOUT 03Z THIS EVENING. AS
FOR THE LOW CLOUDS...THERE IS SOME MVFR STRATUS AT KFSM AND THIS
COULD MOVE INTO KMLC LATER. THE RUC/NAM MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST
LOW CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT
INITIALLY...AND THEN GRADUALLY CLEAR THINGS OUT OVER EASTERN OK
TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST.
LACY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND WITHIN STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET AXIS THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH A THREAT OF MARGINAL WIND GUSTS AND HAIL BUT
SEVERE PROBABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LOW WITH THE INITIAL ACTIVITY.
APPEARS NOW THAT THIS SHOULD MOVE OFF FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER LARGE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT
CURRENTLY LIES FROM TX PANHANDLE TO NE KANSAS. UPPER WAVE
EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE
SHEAR AS WELL...LEADING TO RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT LATER TODAY. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
AND FAVOR LINEAR STORM MODE...HOWEVER SOME INITIAL ALBEIT SHORT-
LIVED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT SEEMS PROBABLE. THUS ALL MODES OF
SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH STORMS ENDING ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS BEFORE 06Z. DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER GREAT LAKES REGION FRI/SAT WILL
HELP BRING A SECOND STRONGER SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS...
ESPECIALLY BY SAT MORNING WHEN MANY AREAS WILL SEE UPPER 30S AND
LOW 40S. NICE WEEKEND WILL FOLLOW WITH A STRONG WARM UP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS QUICKLY RETURN FROM THE SOUTH.
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH MONDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
VERY LIMITED AT THAT TIME AND HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY MID WEEK WITH MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
WHAT WE SAW THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
703 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...
&&
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
PRETTY COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST TODAY...WITH LOW CIGS AND
TSRA TO CONTEND WITH. THE MORNING STORMS ARE LIKELY DONE AFFECT
THE TAF SITES...SO THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE AFTERNOON. USED THE
LATEST HRRR DATA COMBINED WITH PREV FORECAST TO HONE IN ON THE
SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW OF BEST OPPORTUNITY AT EACH TAF SITE. TSRA
SHOULD CLEAR ALL OF THE TERMINALS BY ABOUT 03Z THIS EVENING. AS
FOR THE LOW CLOUDS...THERE IS SOME MVFR STRATUS AT KFSM AND THIS
COULD MOVE INTO KMLC LATER. THE RUC/NAM MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST
LOW CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT
INITIALLY...AND THEN GRADUALLY CLEAR THINGS OUT OVER EASTERN OK
TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST.
LACY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND WITHIN STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET AXIS THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH A THREAT OF MARGINAL WIND GUSTS AND HAIL BUT
SEVERE PROBABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LOW WITH THE INITIAL ACTIVITY.
APPEARS NOW THAT THIS SHOULD MOVE OFF FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER LARGE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT
CURRENTLY LIES FROM TX PANHANDLE TO NE KANSAS. UPPER WAVE
EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE
SHEAR AS WELL...LEADING TO RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT LATER TODAY. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
AND FAVOR LINEAR STORM MODE...HOWEVER SOME INITIAL ALBEIT SHORT-
LIVED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT SEEMS PROBABLE. THUS ALL MODES OF
SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH STORMS ENDING ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS BEFORE 06Z. DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER GREAT LAKES REGION FRI/SAT WILL
HELP BRING A SECOND STRONGER SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS...
ESPECIALLY BY SAT MORNING WHEN MANY AREAS WILL SEE UPPER 30S AND
LOW 40S. NICE WEEKEND WILL FOLLOW WITH A STRONG WARM UP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS QUICKLY RETURN FROM THE SOUTH.
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH MONDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
VERY LIMITED AT THAT TIME AND HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY MID WEEK WITH MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
WHAT WE SAW THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 86 52 69 42 / 80 20 0 0
FSM 89 57 74 44 / 90 80 0 0
MLC 88 54 75 43 / 90 20 0 0
BVO 83 48 67 37 / 80 20 0 0
FYV 85 48 67 35 / 90 80 0 0
BYV 85 52 66 39 / 80 90 0 0
MKO 87 52 69 39 / 90 40 0 0
MIO 84 50 65 38 / 90 70 0 0
F10 86 52 71 41 / 100 20 0 0
HHW 90 56 77 44 / 80 60 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
353 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DRIVEN BY WAA
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH. A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM
NORTHERN MISSOURI TO SOUTH TEXAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FLOW
IS SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PULLING UP WARM...
MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE CREATED A BROAD RANGE OF TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH. AS OF 3PM...MEMPHIS WAS AT 90 DEGREES DUE
TO A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER...WHEREAS OXFORD MISSISSIPPI WAS ONLY
AT 73 DEGREES DUE TO A NEARBY THUNDERSTORM. DEWPOINTS ARE PEAKING
IN THE LOW 70S AREA WIDE.
STORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGAN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FURTHER WEST
IN NW AR...EASTERN OK AND SOUTHERN MO. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST INTO A MORE UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE REDUCED CAPE VALUES TO BETWEEN
800-1500 J/KG AS THE FRONT NEARS...EXCEPT THE NAM WHICH DEPICTS
CAPE VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG OVER NW MISSISSIPPI. 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE NEAR 40 KTS AREA WIDE WITH 0-3 KM
LAPSE RATES AS STEEP AS 5.5 C/KM. INCREASING CLOUD COVER DUE TO
WAA WILL SERVE AS A HINDRANCE TO SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT. THE GFS
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WAA SHOWERS AND STORMS AND NOT
CLEARING OUT BEFORE THE FRONT APPROACHES...WHILE THE NAM...
HRRR...AND EURO CLEAR OUT DURING THE EVENING.
STORMS WILL BECOME COLD POOL DOMINANT AND BEGIN TO RACE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES OUR REGION. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SEVERE WINDS DUE TO
THEIR LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE A SECONDARY
THREAT DUE TO SIGNIFICANT BUOYANCY WITHIN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONES
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH NORTHEAST ARKANSAS BY 7 PM...THE MS RIVER BETWEEN 11PM
AND 1 AM... AND OUT OF OUR COVERAGE AREA BY 5 AM. LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A SECONDARY REINFORCING FRONT TRAILS
THE LEADING ONE.
COOLER DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE MIDSOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WILL DIVE INTO THE 40S AS NW FLOW INCREASES
BRINGING EVEN COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. WE WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH 70 DEGREES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON THE TIMING BUT BOTH THE GFS
AND EURO AGREE ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS MONDAY EVENING.
JPM3
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
PRIMARY CONCERNS REMAIN AFTERNOON SCT TSRA... AND SQUALL LINE
ARRIVAL AT MEM DURING THE EVENING ARRIVAL PUSH.
1745Z RADAR SHOWED SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH.
AIRMASS WAS VERY MOIST AND WEAKLY-CAPPED. THERE WAS LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF DYNAMIC FORCING IN THE WAY OF FRONTS OR ELEVATED TROFS TO
ORGANIZE AFTERNOON TSRA. NONETHELESS...EXPECT CURRENT ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE...WITH SOME INCREASES IN COVERAGE LIKELY. TSRA POTENTIAL
SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 22Z... WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.
NAM AND HRRR MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF
STRONG MIDLEVEL TROF AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. TSRA POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE AT MEM AROUND 03Z...WITH PEAK TSRA CHANCES IN THE 04Z TO
05Z TIME FRAME. NAM MODEL INDICATES TSRA WILL OUTRUN THE COLD
FRONT...PERHAPS ALONG AND BEHIND A LEADING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AIRMASS
SHOULD STABILIZE LIMITING TS POTENTIAL AFTER 07Z...THOUGH SHRA
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. EVENTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR AT
MEM AROUND 12Z...TUP AT 16Z.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1251 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/
UPDATE...
IT IS A WARM...MUGGY EARLY OCTOBER DAY THROUGHOUT THE REGION. A
CLUSTER OF WEAK THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI INTO WEST TENNESSEE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
PULL A WARM...MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY HOLDING TEMPERATURES BELOW
90 DEGREES. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING OF A LINE OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED AT THIS POINT.
JPM3
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/
UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/
A TRICKY SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM KANSAS CITY MISSOURI TO
NEAR AMARILLO TEXAS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. DEWPOINTS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S BUT SHOULD JUMP INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS ARE RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
MODELS INDICATE THE CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN
6AM-9AM. LATEST HRRR SHOWS SHOWERS SHOULD START POPPING ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI BY 8 AM. BY 11AM-1PM...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
GFS..NAM...AND ECMWF SEEM TO FALL IN LINE IN WHAT THE HRRR IS
SHOWING THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
FROM MID-MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY HINDER ANY THUNDERSTORMS FROM
BECOMING STRONG OR SEVERE AT LEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
ALL THE CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...HAVE KNOCKED DOWN
HIGHS TODAY A TAD. DON/T REALLY SEE ANY LOCATION HITTING 90 TODAY.
HIGHS SHOULD STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
SQUALL LINE IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND LATEST HRRR SHOWS IT STRETCHING FROM TULSA
OKLAHOMA TO NEAR ABILENE TEXAS AROUND 2 PM. THE LINE WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THE LINE WILL LIKELY OUTRACE THE FRONT BY THE EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE MIDSOUTH...IT MAY ENCOUNTER AN
ATMOSPHERE AT LEAST SLIGHT WORKED OVER FROM CONVECTION THAT WILL
OCCUR TODAY AND NOT AS UNSTABLE AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT A FEW DAYS
AGO DUE TO CLOUD COVER. CAPE VALUES MAY GET TO 1500 J/KG WHICH IS
STILL DECENT BUT NOT LIKE 2200 J/KG OR GREATER THAT THE NAM HAS
BEEN SHOWING. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
TIMING. LINE MAY NOT GET INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS UNTIL CLOSER TO
9-10 PM. THUS INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING FROM LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. STILL EXPECT EASTERN ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
TO SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS BUT REALLY EXPECT
LINE TO START WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES EAST ESPECIALLY ONCE IT
PUSHES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MAIN THREAT FROM THE LINE
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
SINCE TIMING IS SLOWER HAVE HAD TO UPDATE POPS FOR FRIDAY TO KEEP
THEM IN LONGER. NORTH MISSISSIPPI COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THESE BECAME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH FOR THE WEEKEND AND
WILL BRING BEAUTIFUL AUTUMN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP BACK INTO
THE 70S ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF INDICATES FRONT WILL COME THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. GFS HAS TIMING OF MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT POPS AS IS WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DON/T REALLY
EXPECT ANY COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BACK
INTO THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
PRIMARY CONCERNS REMAIN AFTERNOON SCT TSRA... AND SQUALL LINE
ARRIVAL AT MEM DURING THE EVENING ARRIVAL PUSH.
1745Z RADAR SHOWED SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH.
AIRMASS WAS VERY MOIST AND WEAKLY-CAPPED. THERE WAS LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF DYNAMIC FORCING IN THE WAY OF FRONTS OR ELEVATED TROFS TO
ORGANIZE AFTERNOON TSRA. NONETHELESS...EXPECT CURRENT ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE...WITH SOME INCREASES IN COVERAGE LIKELY. TSRA POTENTIAL
SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 22Z... WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.
NAM AND HRRR MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF
STRONG MIDLEVEL TROF AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. TSRA POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE AT MEM AROUND 03Z...WITH PEAK TSRA CHANCES IN THE 04Z TO
05Z TIME FRAME. NAM MODEL INDICATES TSRA WILL OUTRUN THE COLD
FRONT...PERHAPS ALONG AND BEHIND A LEADING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AIRMASS
SHOULD STABILIZE LIMITING TS POTENTIAL AFTER 07Z...THOUGH SHRA
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. EVENTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR AT
MEM AROUND 12Z...TUP AT 16Z.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
958 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.UPDATE...
IT IS A WARM...MUGGY EARLY OCTOBER DAY THROUGHOUT THE REGION. A
CLUSTER OF WEAK THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI INTO WEST TENNESSEE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
PULL A WARM...MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY HOLDING TEMPERATURES BELOW
90 DEGREES. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING OF A LINE OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED AT THIS POINT.
JPM3
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/
UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/
A TRICKY SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM KANSAS CITY MISSOURI TO
NEAR AMARILLO TEXAS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. DEWPOINTS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S BUT SHOULD JUMP INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS ARE RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
MODELS INDICATE THE CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN
6AM-9AM. LATEST HRRR SHOWS SHOWERS SHOULD START POPPING ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI BY 8 AM. BY 11AM-1PM...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
GFS..NAM...AND ECMWF SEEM TO FALL IN LINE IN WHAT THE HRRR IS
SHOWING THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
FROM MID-MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY HINDER ANY THUNDERSTORMS FROM
BECOMING STRONG OR SEVERE AT LEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
ALL THE CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...HAVE KNOCKED DOWN
HIGHS TODAY A TAD. DON/T REALLY SEE ANY LOCATION HITTING 90 TODAY.
HIGHS SHOULD STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
SQUALL LINE IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND LATEST HRRR SHOWS IT STRETCHING FROM TULSA
OKLAHOMA TO NEAR ABILENE TEXAS AROUND 2 PM. THE LINE WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THE LINE WILL LIKELY OUTRACE THE FRONT BY THE EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE MIDSOUTH...IT MAY ENCOUNTER AN
ATMOSPHERE AT LEAST SLIGHT WORKED OVER FROM CONVECTION THAT WILL
OCCUR TODAY AND NOT AS UNSTABLE AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT A FEW DAYS
AGO DUE TO CLOUD COVER. CAPE VALUES MAY GET TO 1500 J/KG WHICH IS
STILL DECENT BUT NOT LIKE 2200 J/KG OR GREATER THAT THE NAM HAS
BEEN SHOWING. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
TIMING. LINE MAY NOT GET INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS UNTIL CLOSER TO
9-10 PM. THUS INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING FROM LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. STILL EXPECT EASTERN ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
TO SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS BUT REALLY EXPECT
LINE TO START WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES EAST ESPECIALLY ONCE IT
PUSHES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MAIN THREAT FROM THE LINE
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
SINCE TIMING IS SLOWER HAVE HAD TO UPDATE POPS FOR FRIDAY TO KEEP
THEM IN LONGER. NORTH MISSISSIPPI COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THESE BECAME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH FOR THE WEEKEND AND
WILL BRING BEAUTIFUL AUTUMN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP BACK INTO
THE 70S ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF INDICATES FRONT WILL COME THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. GFS HAS TIMING OF MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT POPS AS IS WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DON/T REALLY
EXPECT ANY COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BACK
INTO THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY.
KRM
AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD
INCLUDE OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 02/13Z AND 02Z/17Z ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AFTER 02Z/17Z CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR BUT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS
AFTER 03/03Z AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THUNDERSTORMS
WINDS S-SW INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 22 KTS AT
KJBR. WINDS AFTER 03/00Z S 7-10 KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. TIMING IS QUESTIONABLE BUT JBR
MAY SHIFT 03/08Z MEM 03/09Z...AND MKL 03/10Z.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
625 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/
A TRICKY SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM KANSAS CITY MISSOURI TO
NEAR AMARILLO TEXAS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. DEWPOINTS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S BUT SHOULD JUMP INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS ARE RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
MODELS INDICATE THE CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN
6AM-9AM. LATEST HRRR SHOWS SHOWERS SHOULD START POPPING ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI BY 8 AM. BY 11AM-1PM...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
GFS..NAM...AND ECMWF SEEM TO FALL IN LINE IN WHAT THE HRRR IS
SHOWING THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
FROM MID-MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY HINDER ANY THUNDERSTORMS FROM
BECOMING STRONG OR SEVERE AT LEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
ALL THE CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...HAVE KNOCKED DOWN
HIGHS TODAY A TAD. DON/T REALLY SEE ANY LOCATION HITTING 90 TODAY.
HIGHS SHOULD STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
SQUALL LINE IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND LATEST HRRR SHOWS IT STRETCHING FROM TULSA
OKLAHOMA TO NEAR ABILENE TEXAS AROUND 2 PM. THE LINE WILL MOVE
PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE LINE WILL LIKELY OUTRACE THE FRONT BY THE
EVENING HOURS. EXPECT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE MIDSOUTH...IT
MAY ENCOUNTER AN ATMOSPHERE AT LEAST SLIGHT WORKED OVER FROM
CONVECTION THAT WILL OCCUR TODAY AND NOT AS UNSTABLE AS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT A FEW DAYS AGO DUE TO CLOUD COVER. CAPE VALUES MAY GET TO
1500 J/KG WHICH IS STILL DECENT BUT NOT LIKE 2200 J/KG OR GREATER
THAT THE NAM HAS BEEN SHOWING. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH TIMING. LINE MAY NOT GET INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS UNTIL
CLOSER TO 9-10 PM. THUS INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING FROM LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. STILL EXPECT EASTERN ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL TO SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS BUT REALLY
EXPECT LINE TO START WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES EAST ESPECIALLY ONCE
IT PUSHES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MAIN THREAT FROM THE LINE
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
SINCE TIMING IS SLOWER HAVE HAD TO UPDATE POPS FOR FRIDAY TO KEEP
THEM IN LONGER. NORTH MISSISSIPPI COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THESE BECAME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH FOR THE WEEKEND AND
WILL BRING BEAUTIFUL AUTUMN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP BACK INTO
THE 70S ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF INDICATES FRONT WILL COME THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. GFS HAS TIMING OF MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT POPS AS IS WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DON/T REALLY
EXPECT ANY COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BACK
INTO THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD
INCLUDE OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 02/13Z AND 02Z/17Z ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AFTER 02Z/17Z CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR BUT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS
AFTER 03/03Z AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THUNDERSTORMS
WINDS S-SW INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 22 KTS AT
KJBR. WINDS AFTER 03/00Z S 7-10 KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. TIMING IS QUESTIONABLE BUT JBR
MAY SHIFT 03/08Z MEM 03/09Z...AND MKL 03/10Z.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
311 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
A TRICKY SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM KANSAS CITY MISSOURI TO
NEAR AMARILLO TEXAS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. DEWPOINTS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S BUT SHOULD JUMP INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS ARE RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
MODELS INDICATE THE CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN
6AM-9AM. LATEST HRRR SHOWS SHOWERS SHOULD START POPPING ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI BY 8 AM. BY 11AM-1PM...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
GFS..NAM...AND ECMWF SEEM TO FALL IN LINE IN WHAT THE HRRR IS
SHOWING THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
FROM MID-MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY HINDER ANY THUNDERSTORMS FROM
BECOMING STRONG OR SEVERE AT LEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
ALL THE CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...HAVE KNOCKED DOWN
HIGHS TODAY A TAD. DON/T REALLY SEE ANY LOCATION HITTING 90 TODAY.
HIGHS SHOULD STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
SQUALL LINE IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND LATEST HRRR SHOWS IT STRETCHING FROM TULSA
OKLAHOMA TO NEAR ABILENE TEXAS AROUND 2 PM. THE LINE WILL MOVE
PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE LINE WILL LIKELY OUTRACE THE FRONT BY THE
EVENING HOURS. EXPECT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE MIDSOUTH...IT
MAY ENCOUNTER AN ATMOSPHERE AT LEAST SLIGHT WORKED OVER FROM
CONVECTION THAT WILL OCCUR TODAY AND NOT AS UNSTABLE AS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT A FEW DAYS AGO DUE TO CLOUD COVER. CAPE VALUES MAY GET TO
1500 J/KG WHICH IS STILL DECENT BUT NOT LIKE 2200 J/KG OR GREATER
THAT THE NAM HAS BEEN SHOWING. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH TIMING. LINE MAY NOT GET INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS UNTIL
CLOSER TO 9-10 PM. THUS INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING FROM LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. STILL EXPECT EASTERN ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL TO SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS BUT REALLY
EXPECT LINE TO START WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES EAST ESPECIALLY ONCE
IT PUSHES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MAIN THREAT FROM THE LINE
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
SINCE TIMING IS SLOWER HAVE HAD TO UPDATE POPS FOR FRIDAY TO KEEP
THEM IN LONGER. NORTH MISSISSIPPI COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THESE BECAME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH FOR THE WEEKEND AND
WILL BRING BEAUTIFUL AUTUMN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP BACK INTO
THE 70S ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF INDICATES FRONT WILL COME THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. GFS HAS TIMING OF MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT POPS AS IS WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DON/T REALLY
EXPECT ANY COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BACK
INTO THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS
SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 02/13Z AND
02Z/17Z ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. AFTER 02Z/17Z CEILINGS LIFTING
TO VFR BUT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AFTER 03/03Z AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WINDS TONIGHT SE 3-7 KTS. WINDS THURSDAY S-SW INCREASING TO 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 22 KTS AT KJBR. WINDS AFTER 03/00Z S 7-10
KTS.
JCL
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1107 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.UPDATE...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATING EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES LATE THIS MORNING...WITH A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH NOW SWEEPING THROUGH AREAS FROM WICHITA FALLS TO
NEAR ABILENE. THE TRUE COLD FRONT REMAINS FURTHER WEST FROM VERNON
TO SWEETWATER/SNYDER AREAS PER CAA NOTED AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
THROUGH THE 60S INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. THERMODYNAMICALLY
THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING HAD A MODEST CAP WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES NOTED
BETWEEN 650-800MB. THE CAP SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT...MOISTEN AND
WEAKEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.
UNTIL THEN...A FEW SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
UNDERNEATH THE LIFTING CAPPING INVERSION FROM JUST WEST THROUGH
NORTHEAST OF THE IMMEDIATE DFW METRO AREA. THE ACTION AREA
THROUGH 19Z OR SO WILL BE ACROSS OUR OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AS THIS WILL BE WHERE THE STRONGEST
ASCENT AND BREAKING OF THE CAPPING INVERSION OCCURS WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. A FEW DISCRETE STRONG
TO SEVERE STORM WILL LIKELY FORM ON THIS FEATURE. THE COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY SPEED UP AND TAKE OVER THIS SURFACE TROUGH FROM NEAR
HAMILTON UP THROUGH DALLAS-FORT WORTH...AND TOWARD GAINESVILLE AND
SHERMAN BY MID AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS SIMULTANEOUSLY WITH THE
ARRIVE OF THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE...EXPECT A RAPID
INCREASE OF STORMS TO ZIPPER SOUTHWEST AS FAR SOUTH AS HAMILTON TO
WACO AND POSSIBLY BELL COUNTY. WITH THESE TRENDS IN MIND...HAVE
DRUG THE HIGHER CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS DOWN INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL
TEXAS AS WELL FOR THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS STILL APPEAR TO BE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
TO 70 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...THOUGH EARLY ON THE EVENT WHEN
STORMS ARE MORE DISCRETE YOU CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF TORNADO WITH
ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. HAVE HELD ONTO TRENDS FOR THE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH NO CHANGES...AS THE FRONT
AND SYSTEM MOVE PROGRESSIVELY ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER THAN EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR AND A SLIGHTLY FASTER
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT...I LOWERED HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR
WEST AND NORTHWEST AREAS TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S VERSUS
LOWER 90S.
05/
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1028 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/
HRRR AND RAP ARE NOW SHOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION BREAKING OUT
AROUND NOON IN METROPLEX AREA. COVERAGE WILL BE LOW WITH THESE
DISCRETE CELLS BUT HAVE ADDED VCTS AFTER 17Z. AS I WRITE THIS WE
HAVE ONE CELL IN DENTON COUNTY THAT NOW HAS CLOUD-CLOUD
LIGHTNING...AND ONE IN HOOD COUNTY THAT VERTICAL INTEGRATED ICE IS
SHOWING COMING CLOSE TO HAVING LIGHTNING. BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA
STILL AHEAD OF THE FRONT LASTING FROM 20Z-22Z. 84
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO
RAPIDLY MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY REACHING THE REGION...AS AIRCRAFT DATA
INDICATES LIFTING AND DYNAMIC COOLING OF THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE
PROFILE. WHERE ENOUGH MOISTURE EXISTS ALOFT...ACROSS THE NW ZONES
AND OKLAHOMA...THIS LIFT IS ALLOWING ELEVATED PARCELS TO REACH THEIR
LFC AND CONVECT. THIS SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS OR STORMS.
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW ENTERING THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND IS FORECAST
TO REACH THE NW ZONES BY MIDDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS AN HOUR OR TWO
FASTER WITH THE FRONT...BUT OVERALL THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST THINKING OF THE LAST FEW DAYS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL ENSURE A WARM MORNING AND
ONCE THE LOW STRATUS SCATTERS OUT BY MIDDAY...SUNSHINE WILL BOOST
TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S OVER THE REGION. THESE HOT TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH DYNAMIC COOLING
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CAPE REACHING 2000-2500 J/KG. WHILE A FAIRLY STRONG
INVERSION NEAR 850MB WILL CAP OFF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EARLY IN THE
DAY...THE COMBINATION OF DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL
ALL WORK TO ERODE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION OVER THE AREA.
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER
THE NW ZONES AROUND 1 PM AS THE CAP BEGINS TO BREAK. CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS IT MARCHES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES. WE
EXPECT FROPA AROUND 3 PM NEAR GAINESVILLE...5 PM NEAR DFW...AND 7PM
NEAR WACO. WHEN THE FRONT CROSSES THE I-35 CORRIDOR A SQUALL LINE
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE...WHICH MEANS THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW GAPS
IN THE LINE AT THIS TIME. A FULLY DEVELOPED AND MATURE SQUALL LINE
WILL EXIST AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS HIGHEST IN
THIS REGION. THE CAP WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES...AND ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE MORE ISOLATED
THERE. WHERE CONVECTION IS MORE ISOLATED...SUPER-CELLULAR STORM MODE
IS FAVORED...WHICH MEANS THERE IS AN ENHANCED LARGE HAIL THREAT IN
ADDITION TO A WIND THREAT. WHILE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES DO NOT
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL ROTATION...SURFACE BASED SUPERCELLS
CAN STILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN THE RIGHT MESOSCALE
CONDITIONS...BUT THIS CANNOT BE FORECAST RELIABLY AT THIS TIME RANGE.
THE FRONT AND LINE OF STORMS WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR THE REGION FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL NOT
REALLY INCREASE UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SURGE
ARRIVES. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER AND GENERALLY TOP OUT NEAR 80
IN THE NORTH AND THE MID 80S SOUTH. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN
RIGHT OVER THE CWA BY SUNRISE SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL GO CALM. WITH
DEWPOINTS BY THIS TIME IN THE 30S AND 40S...LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
SHOULD REACH THE 40S FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH LOW 50S
FOR THE DFW AREA AND THE SOUTHEAST CWA. SATURDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND
PLEASANT WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT NEAR 80...BUT WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
THE SOUTH BY SATURDAY EVENING.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND A MODERATION OF TEMPS BACK ABOVE NORMAL WILL
OCCUR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS AN OUTLIER
SOLUTION OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ON MONDAY WHICH BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT AND A CHANCE OF RAIN
TO THE AREA. THE GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS ENERGY
AND THEREFORE SHOW DRY WEATHER WITH HIGH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 90S
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S. WILL KEEP FORECAST THE DRY BUT AS A
NOD TO THE ECMWF POTENTIAL WILL NUDGE HIGH TEMPS DOWNWARD INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR NEXT WEEK INSTEAD OF THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY BOLD
FORECAST OF LOWER 90S.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 91 59 82 50 80 / 70 20 0 0 0
WACO, TX 94 58 84 49 81 / 60 40 5 0 0
PARIS, TX 90 57 78 45 76 / 80 60 0 0 0
DENTON, TX 90 54 81 43 80 / 70 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 91 56 81 43 78 / 80 30 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 92 60 82 51 80 / 80 30 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 93 59 82 48 79 / 80 50 0 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 93 61 83 49 79 / 60 60 5 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 94 60 85 50 81 / 50 50 5 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 90 54 82 44 81 / 40 10 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
84/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1028 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.AVIATION...
HRRR AND RAP ARE NOW SHOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION BREAKING OUT
AROUND NOON IN METROPLEX AREA. COVERAGE WILL BE LOW WITH THESE
DISCRETE CELLS BUT HAVE ADDED VCTS AFTER 17Z. AS I WRITE THIS WE
HAVE ONE CELL IN DENTON COUNTY THAT NOW HAS CLOUD-CLOUD
LIGHTNING...AND ONE IN HOOD COUNTY THAT VERTICAL INTEGRATED ICE IS
SHOWING COMING CLOSE TO HAVING LIGHTNING. BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA
STILL AHEAD OF THE FRONT LASTING FROM 20Z-22Z. 84
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO
RAPIDLY MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY REACHING THE REGION...AS AIRCRAFT DATA
INDICATES LIFTING AND DYNAMIC COOLING OF THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE
PROFILE. WHERE ENOUGH MOISTURE EXISTS ALOFT...ACROSS THE NW ZONES
AND OKLAHOMA...THIS LIFT IS ALLOWING ELEVATED PARCELS TO REACH THEIR
LFC AND CONVECT. THIS SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS OR STORMS.
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW ENTERING THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND IS FORECAST
TO REACH THE NW ZONES BY MIDDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS AN HOUR OR TWO
FASTER WITH THE FRONT...BUT OVERALL THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST THINKING OF THE LAST FEW DAYS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL ENSURE A WARM MORNING AND
ONCE THE LOW STRATUS SCATTERS OUT BY MIDDAY...SUNSHINE WILL BOOST
TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S OVER THE REGION. THESE HOT TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH DYNAMIC COOLING
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CAPE REACHING 2000-2500 J/KG. WHILE A FAIRLY STRONG
INVERSION NEAR 850MB WILL CAP OFF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EARLY IN THE
DAY...THE COMBINATION OF DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL
ALL WORK TO ERODE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION OVER THE AREA.
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER
THE NW ZONES AROUND 1 PM AS THE CAP BEGINS TO BREAK. CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS IT MARCHES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES. WE
EXPECT FROPA AROUND 3 PM NEAR GAINESVILLE...5 PM NEAR DFW...AND 7PM
NEAR WACO. WHEN THE FRONT CROSSES THE I-35 CORRIDOR A SQUALL LINE
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE...WHICH MEANS THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW GAPS
IN THE LINE AT THIS TIME. A FULLY DEVELOPED AND MATURE SQUALL LINE
WILL EXIST AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS HIGHEST IN
THIS REGION. THE CAP WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES...AND ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE MORE ISOLATED
THERE. WHERE CONVECTION IS MORE ISOLATED...SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE
IS FAVORED...WHICH MEANS THERE IS AN ENHANCED LARGE HAIL THREAT IN
ADDITION TO A WIND THREAT. WHILE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES DO NOT
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL ROTATION...SURFACE BASED SUPERCELLS
CAN STILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN THE RIGHT MESOSCALE
CONDITIONS...BUT THIS CANNOT BE FORECAST RELIABLY AT THIS TIME RANGE.
THE FRONT AND LINE OF STORMS WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR THE REGION FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL NOT
REALLY INCREASE UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SURGE
ARRIVES. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER AND GENERALLY TOP OUT NEAR 80
IN THE NORTH AND THE MID 80S SOUTH. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN
RIGHT OVER THE CWA BY SUNRISE SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL GO CALM. WITH
DEWPOINTS BY THIS TIME IN THE 30S AND 40S...LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
SHOULD REACH THE 40S FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH LOW 50S
FOR THE DFW AREA AND THE SOUTHEAST CWA. SATURDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND
PLEASANT WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT NEAR 80...BUT WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
THE SOUTH BY SATURDAY EVENING.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND A MODERATION OF TEMPS BACK ABOVE NORMAL WILL
OCCUR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS AN OUTLIER
SOLUTION OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ON MONDAY WHICH BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT AND A CHANCE OF RAIN
TO THE AREA. THE GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS ENERGY
AND THEREFORE SHOW DRY WEATHER WITH HIGH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 90S
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S. WILL KEEP FORECAST THE DRY BUT AS A
NOD TO THE ECMWF POTENTIAL WILL NUDGE HIGH TEMPS DOWNWARD INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR NEXT WEEK INSTEAD OF THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY BOLD
FORECAST OF LOWER 90S.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 93 59 82 50 80 / 70 20 0 0 0
WACO, TX 95 58 84 49 81 / 50 40 5 0 0
PARIS, TX 91 57 78 45 76 / 80 60 0 0 0
DENTON, TX 92 54 81 43 80 / 60 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 92 56 81 43 78 / 80 30 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 93 60 82 51 80 / 70 30 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 94 59 82 48 79 / 70 50 0 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 94 61 83 49 79 / 60 60 5 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 95 60 85 50 81 / 30 50 5 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 92 54 82 44 81 / 30 10 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
RAIN WAS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES THE ISSUE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WAS MOVING TOWARD
WISCONSIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WERE MOVING INTO WISCONSIN FROM
IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND A COLD
FRONT WERE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...BRINGING SHOWERS INTO THE
STATE FROM MINNESOTA. THERE WERE ALSO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND SOME
THUNDER...AHEAD OF AND BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. GUIDANCE WAS
SHOWING QPF INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MESOSCALE HRRR FROM 16Z
HAD THE RAIN THAT WAS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH MAINLY IMPACTING
AREAS FROM THE FOX VALLEY EAST TO THE LAKE AS THE RAIN TO THE WEST
MOVES INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING.
LIGHTNING DETECTION HAD SOME CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES ALONG THE
EASTERN PART OF THE MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER...WHERE LOCAL
MESOANALYSIS GRAPHICS SHOWED RATHER LOW MUCAPE WITH AROUND ZERO
CIN. OTHER LOCATIONS IN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH HIGHER
MUCAPE AND LITTLE OR NO CIN...DID NOT HAVE ANY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING DETECTED WITH IT.
HAVE GONE WITH INCREASING POPS FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TONIGHT AS THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THE
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE DECREASING POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD. DID MENTION
A CHANCE FOR THUNDER LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT THINKING IT
SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS.
THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALONG WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING UP MUCH
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY IF THEY MANAGE TO WARM AT ALL. SEEMS A
LITTLE EARLY IN THE SEASON FOR FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
BUT IT IS PAST THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX AND THE COLD ADVECTION IS
STRONG. HAVE NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES GOING THROUGH MID
MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THE REST OF THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
PCPN TRENDS AND TYPE FOR THE WEEKEND...AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.
A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL WI AND THE SOUTHERN
FOX VALLEY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS MOVG INTO NC/C WI
LATE FRIDAY EVG...AND PROGRESSING TO JUST NW OF THE FOX VALLEY BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW AND FRONT WILL EXIT SATURDAY
MORNING...CAUSING SHOWERS TO DECREASE OVER EASTERN WI. PCPN TYPE
WILL PROBABLY BE MIXED RAIN/SNOW OVER ABOUT THE SW THIRD OF THE
CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...WHERE MODELS SHOW THE COLDEST POCKET OF AIR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS
ANTICIPATED. A WEAK THERMAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP PCPN ALL
RAIN OVER THE FAR NORTH.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NC WI SAT AFT/NGT...
WHERE SCT LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THE AIR MASS WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT NGT.
NW FLOW AND ASSOCIATED COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
NIGHT...AS A SHARP UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH. WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...POPS WILL ONLY BE IN
THE CHC CATEGORY.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MIDWEEK...WITH A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
CIGS WERE MVFR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AT MIDDAY. THE
EXCEPTIONS WERE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE BAY...AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 8. VSBYS WERE VFR IN MUCH OF CENTRAL AND PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT MAINLY MVFR ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA IN
HZ OR BR. THERE WERE A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO MANITOWOC COUNTY AT
MIDDAY...BUT THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS WAS IN IOWA AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND HEADED TOWARD THE AREA. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING NORTHEAST. ONCE THE SHOWERS ARRIVE VSBYS MAY START OUT
MVFR...WITH VFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES...BUT CIGS AND VSBYS
SHOULD BECOME IFR IN RAIN DURING THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CHANCES WERE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD THEM
TO THE TAFS. AS THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT MAKE THEIR WAY TO THE
EAST CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE A BIT AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
INCREASE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
302 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING ALONG BOTH THE WEST AND EAST COASTS OF NORTH AMERICA
AND LONG WAVE TROUGHING DEVELOPING IN-BETWEEN. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
PORTION OF THIS LONG WAVE TROUGH FEATURES A POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE THE NORTHERN STREAM CONSISTED OF A
TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WAS PRESENT ALONG THE MN/SD BORDER. DPVA AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAS SUPPORTED A BAND OF SHOWERS FROM NW IA
INTO CENTRAL AND NE MN. AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE...A
STREAM OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS HELPED SPREAD 1.5-2 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER THROUGH MO...IL AND NOW APPROACHING SOUTHERN WI.
THIS MOISTURE...THE TRANSPORT...DPVA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE AND 1000-2000 J/KG MUCAPE ACCOMPANYING THE HIGHER MOISTURE
HAS SUPPORTED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...SOME HAVE BEGUN TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST AREA
SITS IN A MASS OF LOW STRATUS...AIDED BY BEING IN A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE. TO THE WEST...THOUGH...A
WEDGE OF CLEAR SKIES EXISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...AHEAD OF A
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE TROUGH OVER SASKATCHEAWN AND MONTANA
REMAINS PROGGED TO DIG THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. AND MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. BY 00Z SAT...MOST MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LOW
SITUATED RIGHT ON TOP OF LSE. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE
MOIST FLOW REGIME CURRENTLY SPREADING NORTH TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...IT SHOULD
BRING AN AIRMASS IN MORE SIMILAR TO LATE OCTOBER/EARLY NOVEMBER.
FOR TONIGHT...MUCH OF THE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS PROGGED TO
STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AND INSTABILITY ACCOMPANYING IT AWAY.
HOWEVER...WE STILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH THE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE
MN/SD BORDER HEADING EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. DPVA FROM THE SHORTWAVE
INTERACTING WITH 1-1.5 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AHEAD OF IT...ALONG
WITH SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD HELP BRING SHOWERS TO MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE RAIN IN
THE LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INTESITY...GIVEN THE UNSTABLE AIR
STAYING AWAY FROM THE AREA. CANT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL GIVEN PRESENCE OF WEAK INSTABILITY PROGGED. THERE HAS BEEN A
TREND FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO GET OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA QUICKER
IN 02.06Z/02.12Z GUIDANCE...SO HAVE ADJUSTED CHANCES TOWARDS A DRIER
OVERNIGHT. SKIES COULD CLEAR OUT FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS THE
CURRENT WEDGE OF CLEARING IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVES IN.
ON FRIDAY...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
IN...SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOSTLY A SUBSIDENT REGIME IN PLACE. THIS WILL
HELP KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY. HOWEVER...AS WE APPROACH
00Z SAT...ANOTHER BAND OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW THAT FORMS COULD BEGIN TO
APPROACH FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INCLUDED
20 PERCENT CHANCES JUST IN CASE. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ARE GOING TO
BE THE BIG DEAL FOR FRIDAY...THOUGH. A SUSTAINED 30-40 KT 925MB
NORTHWEST WIND WILL HELP DRIVE 925MB TEMPS DOWN FROM 8-12C AT 09Z
FRI TO 3-6C BY 18Z FRI...AND PERHAPS AS LOW AS 2C BY 00Z SAT.
THUS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD EITHER HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH
THE DAY. MANY LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY WITH VALLEY AREAS STANDING THE BEST CHANCE TO GET ABOVE
50.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
A POTENT AND FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING WITH IT SOME OF THE CHILLIEST AIR OF THE
THE FALL SO FAR. PRECIPITATION SHOULD PUSH INTO NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE EVENING THEN SWINGING ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO START OUT AS LIGHT
RAIN BUT WILL THEN SWITCH OVER TO A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. IN FACT..THE SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
ACCUMULATE A SLUSHY 1/2 INCH OR SO ON ELEVATED SURFACES AWAY FROM
VALLEY LOCATIONS. IF THIS SNOWFALL WOULD OCCUR IT WOULD BE THE 4TH
EARLIEST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR ROCHESTER...AND IF SNOW IS
MEASURED AT LA CROSSE IT WOULD BE THE 3RD EARLIEST. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. WE WILL SEE THE WINDS SWITCH TO
NORTHWEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE. THE COMBINATION OF THE
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH... AND
FALLING SNOW COULD CAUSE SOME BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SO WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL. IT WILL BE CHILLY
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY WILL BE A RATHER RAW DAY OVER THE
REGION...AT LEAST COMPARED TO WHERE WE WERE LAST WEEKEND. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES
WON/T MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THOSE
WITH COLD SENSITIVE VEGETATION SHOULD TAKE THE PROPER PRECAUTIONS
TO PROTECT IT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. IN
FACT...SOME LOCATIONS OVER CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL
LIKELY SEE A FREEZE OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES OVER THESE
AREAS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S...PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT.
COOL NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVER
CENTRAL ONTARIO WITH A DEEP TROUGH PERSISTING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. SOME RELIEF FROM THE COOL
WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND ZONAL FLOW SETS UP. HIGHS SHOULD
REBOUND INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS STILL SIT AT RST AS DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN
SLOW AT MIXING OUT THE FOG PRESENT THERE. ANTICIPATING SOME SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES TO WORK ON THE FOG AND
STRATUS. SHOWERS MOVING IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON COULD HELP TO
IMPROVE VISIBILITY SOME...THOUGH. AT LSE...VISIBILITIES ARE
ALREADY VFR WITH CEILINGS FLIRTING WITH MVFR. ANTICIPATING
CEILINGS THERE TO RISE FULLY TO MVFR BY 20Z...EVEN WITH SHOWERS
MOVING IN. A FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO OCCUR AROUND 00Z...WHICH
PRESSURES RISING IN ITS WAKE MAY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF NORTHWEST 20
KT GUSTS THIS EVENING. CEILINGS APPEAR TO HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
EVENING...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A RISE DUE TO THE NORTHWEST WIND.
A BETTER SHOT FOR RISING CEILINGS COMES AFTER 06Z AS A WEDGE OF
CLEARING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVES IN. HAVE TRIED TO TIME
THAT CLEARING IN THE TAF...BUT MAY NEED SOME ADJUSTMENT IN LATER
FORECASTS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES
AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE PLUS COLD
AIR FLOWING IN SHOULD HELP KICK UP THE NORTHWEST WINDS TO 10 TO 20
KT...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT BY MID-DAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
LOOKS LIKELY TOO IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH DAYTIME MIXING
INCREASING THE CEILING THROUGH THE MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1228 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR SOUTHEAST MN AND BUFFALO
COUNTY IN WISCONSIN AS CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO IMPROVE THIS
MORNING. SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION CONTINUING
THROUGH NOON AND WITH TROUGH AXIS RIGHT THROUGH THE
REGION...LITTLE MIXING EXPECTED TO HELP BREAK THINGS UP.
FOR NORTHEAST IOWA...OBSERVATIONS AND CALLS TO PARTNER GROUPS
INDICATE THAT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SUCH THAT THE ADVISORY CAN
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
IMMEDIATE CONCERNS INCLUDE FOG THIS MORNING AND INCOMING RAIN.
SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING HAS A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING N-S
ACROSS MN/IA. WEAKLY CONVERGENT AND VERY DAMP LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
HAS LED TO SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHEAST MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. AS A RESULT...A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM.
OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A DEEPENING
LONG WAVE BASICALLY ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS WAS TAKING PLACE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE.
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS/MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION. OVER THE LOCAL AR X FORECAST AREA...BESIDES THE
FOG...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO THE
LOWER 60S.
FOR TODAY...WILL BE WATCHING THE LOW OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE LIFT
NORTHEAST IN MO BY NOON AND NORTHERN IL BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AS
THIS OCCURS...850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALL COMBINE FORCES TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA... BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE 60S
TO THE LOWER 70S.
FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
WI. THIS PUTS ARX FORECAST AREA UNDER FAIRLY STRONG 850-500MB
FRONTOGENETIC BAND IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
DRIVE WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY RANGING FROM
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH. THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...PLAN ON RAIN TAPERING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW PULLS INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 40S
TO AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PULLING INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. PLAN ON
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35
MPH. PV-ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING MID-LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO
PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
COLDER TEMPERATURES/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS/RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALL
COMBINE FOR A PRETTY RAW DAY.
AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW ROTATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...LOOKING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO RESULT. AS TEMPERATURES
COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S LATER IN THE NIGHT...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN AT TIMES. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER IN COLD CYCLONIC FLOW. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER RAW AUTUMN DAY ON
TAP AS HIGHS ONLY TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S. CONTINUED COLD
AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA.
LONG WAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LOOKS TO MAKE PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW FILLS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO CANADA WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S/FEW LOWER 60S TUESDAY...AND IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS STILL SIT AT RST AS DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN
SLOW AT MIXING OUT THE FOG PRESENT THERE. ANTICIPATING SOME SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES TO WORK ON THE FOG AND
STRATUS. SHOWERS MOVING IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON COULD HELP TO
IMPROVE VISIBILITY SOME...THOUGH. AT LSE...VISIBILITIES ARE
ALREADY VFR WITH CEILINGS FLIRTING WITH MVFR. ANTICIPATING
CEILINGS THERE TO RISE FULLY TO MVFR BY 20Z...EVEN WITH SHOWERS
MOVING IN. A FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO OCCUR AROUND 00Z...WHICH
PRESSURES RISING IN ITS WAKE MAY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF NORTHWEST 20
KT GUSTS THIS EVENING. CEILINGS APPEAR TO HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
EVENING...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A RISE DUE TO THE NORTHWEST WIND.
A BETTER SHOT FOR RISING CEILINGS COMES AFTER 06Z AS A WEDGE OF
CLEARING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVES IN. HAVE TRIED TO TIME
THAT CLEARING IN THE TAF...BUT MAY NEED SOME ADJUSTMENT IN LATER
FORECASTS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES
AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE PLUS COLD
AIR FLOWING IN SHOULD HELP KICK UP THE NORTHWEST WINDS TO 10 TO 20
KT...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT BY MID-DAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
LOOKS LIKELY TOO IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH DAYTIME MIXING
INCREASING THE CEILING THROUGH THE MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZT
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
955 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.UPDATE...DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR SOUTHEAST MN AND BUFFALO
COUNTY IN WISCONSIN AS CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO IMPROVE THIS
MORNING. SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION CONTINUING
THROUGH NOON AND WITH TROUGH AXIS RIGHT THROUGH THE
REGION...LITTLE MIXING EXPECTED TO HELP BREAK THINGS UP.
FOR NORTHEAST IOWA...OBSERVATIONS AND CALLS TO PARTNER GROUPS
INDICATE THAT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SUCH THAT THE ADVISORY CAN
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
IMMEDIATE CONCERNS INCLUDE FOG THIS MORNING AND INCOMING RAIN.
SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING HAS A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING N-S
ACROSS MN/IA. WEAKLY CONVERGENT AND VERY DAMP LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
HAS LED TO SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHEAST MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. AS A RESULT...A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM.
OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A DEEPENING
LONG WAVE BASICALLY ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS WAS TAKING PLACE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE.
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS/MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION. OVER THE LOCAL AR X FORECAST AREA...BESIDES THE
FOG...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO THE
LOWER 60S.
FOR TODAY...WILL BE WATCHING THE LOW OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE LIFT
NORTHEAST IN MO BY NOON AND NORTHERN IL BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AS
THIS OCCURS...850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALL COMBINE FORCES TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA... BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE 60S
TO THE LOWER 70S.
FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
WI. THIS PUTS ARX FORECAST AREA UNDER FAIRLY STRONG 850-500MB
FRONTOGENETIC BAND IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
DRIVE WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY RANGING FROM
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH. THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...PLAN ON RAIN TAPERING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW PULLS INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 40S
TO AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PULLING INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. PLAN ON
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35
MPH. PV-ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING MID-LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO
PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
COLDER TEMPERATURES/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS/RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALL
COMBINE FOR A PRETTY RAW DAY.
AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW ROTATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...LOOKING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO RESULT. AS TEMPERATURES
COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S LATER IN THE NIGHT...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN AT TIMES. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER IN COLD CYCLONIC FLOW. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER RAW AUTUMN DAY ON
TAP AS HIGHS ONLY TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S. CONTINUED COLD
AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA.
LONG WAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LOOKS TO MAKE PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW FILLS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO CANADA WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S/FEW LOWER 60S TUESDAY...AND IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
A LOT OF CHALLENGES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
FOR VSBYS...SUB 1/2SM FG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS A PORTION OF
MN/IA...BUT THERE HAS BEEN SOME FLUCTUATION IN THE VSBYS AS
EVIDENCED BY OBSERVATIONS. FEEL IT WILL BE MORE 1/4SM THAN NOT AT
KRST FOR THE EARLY MORNING...SO WILL STICK WITH THAT. GUIDANCE AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING...ALTHOUGH
KRST MAY ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AT BEST. KLSE HAS AVOIDED THE LOWER
VSBYS...ALTHOUGH OBSERVATIONS SURROUNDING THE SITE HAVE AT LEAST
LOWERED TO MVFR. CONFIDENCE SHAKY WHEN/IF KLSE VSBYS WILL DROP. WILL
LEAN ON THE TRENDS WHICH HAVE KEPT THEM MOSTLY P6SM.
-SHRA WILL MOVE IN LATER TODAY...WITH MOST MESO MODELS SUGGESTING
CLOSER TO 20Z. THEY ALSO WOULD TAKE THE PCPN EAST IN THE 04-06Z
WINDOW. WILL USE THIS TIMING.
A LOT OF CIGS IN THE LIFR/IFR CATEGORIES EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
EXPECT ONLY SMALL DIURNAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY. DON/T SEE VFR
RIGHT NOW...THOUGH COULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST RH FIELDS POINT TO A DECREASE IN THE SATURATION FOR
A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...WITH MORE MOISTURE ROLLING BACK IN FRIDAY.
SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HOURS OF SCT CLOUDS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON THAT FOR NOW. WILL INSTEAD BUMP CIGS UP...ALTHOUGH KEEP KRST AT
MVFR FOR THE MOMENT.
A LOT OF COMPLEXITY TO THE FORECAST INTO TONIGHT. ANTICIPATE
UPDATES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR WIZ032.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-094-
095.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZT
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
630 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
IMMEDIATE CONCERNS INCLUDE FOG THIS MORNING AND INCOMING RAIN.
SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING HAS A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING N-S
ACROSS MN/IA. WEAKLY CONVERGENT AND VERY DAMP LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
HAS LED TO SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHEAST MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. AS A RESULT...A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM.
OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A DEEPENING
LONG WAVE BASICALLY ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS WAS TAKING PLACE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE.
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS/MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION. OVER THE LOCAL AR X FORECAST AREA...BESIDES THE
FOG...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO THE
LOWER 60S.
FOR TODAY...WILL BE WATCHING THE LOW OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE LIFT
NORTHEAST IN MO BY NOON AND NORTHERN IL BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AS
THIS OCCURS...850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALL COMBINE FORCES TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA... BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE 60S
TO THE LOWER 70S.
FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
WI. THIS PUTS ARX FORECAST AREA UNDER FAIRLY STRONG 850-500MB
FRONTOGENETIC BAND IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
DRIVE WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY RANGING FROM
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH. THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...PLAN ON RAIN TAPERING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW PULLS INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 40S
TO AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PULLING INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. PLAN ON
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35
MPH. PV-ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING MID-LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO
PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
COLDER TEMPERATURES/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS/RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALL
COMBINE FOR A PRETTY RAW DAY.
AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW ROTATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...LOOKING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO RESULT. AS TEMPERATURES
COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S LATER IN THE NIGHT...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN AT TIMES. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER IN COLD CYCLONIC FLOW. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER RAW AUTUMN DAY ON
TAP AS HIGHS ONLY TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S. CONTINUED COLD
AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA.
LONG WAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LOOKS TO MAKE PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW FILLS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO CANADA WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S/FEW LOWER 60S TUESDAY...AND IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
A LOT OF CHALLENGES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
FOR VSBYS...SUB 1/2SM FG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS A PORTION OF
MN/IA...BUT THERE HAS BEEN SOME FLUCTUATION IN THE VSBYS AS
EVIDENCED BY OBSERVATIONS. FEEL IT WILL BE MORE 1/4SM THAN NOT AT
KRST FOR THE EARLY MORNING...SO WILL STICK WITH THAT. GUIDANCE AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING...ALTHOUGH
KRST MAY ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AT BEST. KLSE HAS AVOIDED THE LOWER
VSBYS...ALTHOUGH OBSERVATIONS SURROUNDING THE SITE HAVE AT LEAST
LOWERED TO MVFR. CONFIDENCE SHAKY WHEN/IF KLSE VSBYS WILL DROP. WILL
LEAN ON THE TRENDS WHICH HAVE KEPT THEM MOSTLY P6SM.
-SHRA WILL MOVE IN LATER TODAY...WITH MOST MESO MODELS SUGGESTING
CLOSER TO 20Z. THEY ALSO WOULD TAKE THE PCPN EAST IN THE 04-06Z
WINDOW. WILL USE THIS TIMING.
A LOT OF CIGS IN THE LIFR/IFR CATEGORIES EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
EXPECT ONLY SMALL DIURNAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY. DON/T SEE VFR
RIGHT NOW...THOUGH COULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST RH FIELDS POINT TO A DECREASE IN THE SATURATION FOR
A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...WITH MORE MOISTURE ROLLING BACK IN FRIDAY.
SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HOURS OF SCT CLOUDS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON THAT FOR NOW. WILL INSTEAD BUMP CIGS UP...ALTHOUGH KEEP KRST AT
MVFR FOR THE MOMENT.
A LOT OF COMPLEXITY TO THE FORECAST INTO TONIGHT. ANTICIPATE
UPDATES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FOR WIZ032.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094-095.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FOR IAZ008-009-018-
019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
325 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
IMMEDIATE CONCERNS INCLUDE FOG THIS MORNING AND INCOMING RAIN.
SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING HAS A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING N-S
ACROSS MN/IA. WEAKLY CONVERGENT AND VERY DAMP LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
HAS LED TO SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHEAST MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. AS A RESULT...A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM.
OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A DEEPENING
LONG WAVE BASICALLY ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS WAS TAKING PLACE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE.
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS/MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION. OVER THE LOCAL AR X FORECAST AREA...BESIDES THE
FOG...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO THE
LOWER 60S.
FOR TODAY...WILL BE WATCHING THE LOW OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE LIFT
NORTHEAST IN MO BY NOON AND NORTHERN IL BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AS
THIS OCCURS...850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALL COMBINE FORCES TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA... BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE 60S
TO THE LOWER 70S.
FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
WI. THIS PUTS ARX FORECAST AREA UNDER FAIRLY STRONG 850-500MB
FRONTOGENETIC BAND IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
DRIVE WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY RANGING FROM
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH. THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...PLAN ON RAIN TAPERING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW PULLS INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 40S
TO AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PULLING INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. PLAN ON
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35
MPH. PV-ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING MID-LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO
PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
COLDER TEMPERATURES/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS/RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALL
COMBINE FOR A PRETTY RAW DAY.
AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW ROTATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...LOOKING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO RESULT. AS TEMPERATURES
COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S LATER IN THE NIGHT...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN AT TIMES. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER IN COLD CYCLONIC FLOW. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER RAW AUTUMN DAY ON
TAP AS HIGHS ONLY TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S. CONTINUED COLD
AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA.
LONG WAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LOOKS TO MAKE PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW FILLS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO CANADA WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S/FEW LOWER 60S TUESDAY...AND IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AT TAF AIRFIELDS
GIVEN SATURATED NEAR SURFACE LAYER...CLEARING SKIES ALOFT AND VERY
LIGHT WIND. EXPECT FOG TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP BETWEEN 02.08Z TO 02.10Z
WITH VISIBILITY DROPPING BELOW 1/4SM AND CEILINGS FROM 100 TO 200
FT AGL. FOG TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BETWEEN 02.15Z AND 02.16Z
BEFORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING WITH RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ032.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094-095.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR IAZ008-009-018-
019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
124 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH THE SHOWERS TAPERING OFF DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IS ON ITS WAY.
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIOINS AND TRENDS...CURRNET FORECAST ON
TRACK THROUGH SUNRISE. RADAR SHOWING RAIN MOVING IN AND
TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING TOWARD CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS. JUST
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNRISE.
IT WILL BE MILD OVERNIGHT A SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE PERSISTS AND CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVING THERE COULD BE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION
WILL LIKELY PREVENT THESE GUSTS FROM MIXING TO THE VALLEY FLOOR
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE TROUGH AND OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR WESTERN AREAS BY
MIDDAY...REACHING THE HUDSON VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND OUR
EASTERN ZONES BY THE EVENING.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY STAY JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION...BUT MIGHT
SNEAK NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
SHOWALTER INDEX (WHICH IS IN THE INSTABILITY BETWEEN H850 AND THE
H500 LEVEL) LOOKS TO APPROACH ZERO IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS MEANS
THIS AREA COULD BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ALOFT SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA ONLY. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES FORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND TAP INTO
THE ROBUST WIND FIELD TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 40-50 MPH. SO...WE WILL
ALSO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS.
PWATS LOOK TO REACH 1.5 INCHES EARLY ON SATURDAY...MAINLY FROM THE
HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
RAIN (EVEN IF THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT MATERIALIZE). FOR THE MOST
PART...THIS WILL BE A BENEFICIAL RAINFALL SINCE MANY AREAS HAVE NOT
HAD A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SINCE SEPTEMBER 16TH.
THE SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY EXIT OUR WESTERN ZONES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABLY NOT CLEAR THE HUDSON VALLEY AND ESPECIALLY
AREAS EAST UNTIL AROUND DARK.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD TO THE
60S...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH.
THE WIND ON SATURDAY WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE VALLEYS...5-15
MPH. AN INVERSION LOOKS TO HOLD AND SHOULD PREVENT GUSTS MUCH
STRONGER THAN THAT. HOWEVER...DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A 45 LOW
LEVEL KT JET MOVES THROUGH...THE WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 45 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.
WE DID NOT PUT UP ANY WIND ADVISORIES SINCE IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL
FALL JUST SHORT OF THE WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD. HOWEVER WE WILL
MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE IN THE H.W.O. SINCE IT IS STILL
POSSIBLE ONE MIGHT BE NEEDED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE LOW LEVEL JET ACTUALLY LOOKS TO MOVE ON THROUGH BY LATE IN THE
DAY.
AFTER A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY EAST EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...
CLEARING WILL FOLLOW LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AS A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS
WORKS IN FROM THE WSW. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM AROUND +12C
EARLY SATURDAY...TO ABOUT 0C BY SUNDAY MORNING! THEO ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THE CLEARING WILL BE THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COMBINATION OF AN
UPSLOPE FLOW AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WILL
KEEP CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS GOING. IT MIGHT EVEN BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE GRAUPEL OR EVEN THE SEASON/S FIRST
FLURRIES. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA IT WILL JUST TURN SEASONABLY
CHILLY.
LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 40 IN THE VALLEYS...30S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...CLOSE TO FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS.
THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE WEST OR SOUTHEAST 5-15 MPH...DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ADIRONDACKS...SUNDAY SHOULD A DRY DAY
STARTING OUT WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
THOSE PERSISTENT CLOUDS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WITH THE COOL AIR
ALOFT...EXCEPT SCATTERED TO BROKEN INSTABILITY CLOUDS TO FORM...MORE
SO OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW THESE COULD REAP A SPRINKLE BUT
THAT WOULD BE ABOUT IT. THERE COULD BE "MEASURABLE" SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH PERHAPS SOME EARLY MORNING GRAUPEL OR WET SNOW
FLAKES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 IN THE
VALLEYS...ONLY UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
THE WIND WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH...WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND QUITE CHILLY. MANY AREAS
TO NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY LOOK TO HAVE POTENTIAL FROST AND OR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES. EVEN FROM ALBANY AND POINTS SOUTH AND
EAST...SOME SPOTTY FROST IS POSSIBLE WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.
MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PUMP SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR OUR WAY. IT WILL TURN RATHER BREEZY AND THE
WARMUP WILL NOT BE ALL THE ROBUST WITH HIGHS ONLY 60-65 IN THE
VALLEYS...55-60 HIGHER TERRAIN.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN CENTRAL CANADA WILL STARTING POOLING
MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS BRINGING A STRAY SHOWER TO THE ADIRONDACKS BEFORE DAY/S
END.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT STILL APPEARS OUR WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH SETTING UP TO OUR WEST...AT LEAST DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL RELAX BY LATE NEXT
WEEK...A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL EXIST NEAR OUR REGION KEEPING
THE WEATHER POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
A SOUTHWESTERLY INCREASINGLY MOIST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF MORE
SHOWERS.
ANOTHER WEAKER OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT KEEPING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AND COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BUT SINCE WE WILL
REMAIN IN A CYCLONIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
BY FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPRAWLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH. WARMER AIR
WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE BACK FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BUT AT THE
SAME TIME...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD FROM
CANADA. AT THIS POINT...THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT IS NOT CERTAIN
SO FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH IT THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH IS STRONG...WE
COULD SQUEAK BY THE DAY FRIDAY WITH MILD DRY CONDITIONS.
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM LOWER 60S TO AROUND 70
TUESDAY...UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND MID
60S TO LOWER 70S FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE REACHED THE WESTERN REACHES OF THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA AND CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WELL AHEAD
OF THE OCCLUDING BOUNDARY. THE HRRR 3-KM AND HIRESWRF MESOSCALE
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INCREASING THE SHOWERS
ACTIVITY AS IT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT AND BRINGING THE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WORKS INTO THE AREA.
HAVE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM BOTH WEST AND EAST. WIDESPREAD
MVFR WILL DEVELOP WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR AS CEILINGS
LOWER. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
BEGINNING BY AROUND 09Z AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU AND A COUPLE HOURS
LATER AT KPSF. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH A PERIOD OF VERY SHOWERS AS THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH LATE IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY
IMPROVEMENT TO ONLY MVFR IS EXPECTED BY 00Z/SUNDAY.
SOUTHEAST-EAST WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING OCCLUDED BOUNDARY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WITH ITS PASSAGE.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA IN THE EVNG.
SUN-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA
TUE-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FINALLY...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL GET A SOAKING RAIN ON SATURDAY WITH
ALL AREAS EXPECTING A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL OR MORE. WE ASSIGNED
A "WET FLAG" TO ALL OUR NFDRS FORECAST ON SATURDAY FOR THIS VERY
REASON. A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. DRIER COOLER WILL RETURN ON
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS A LARGE TROUGH
SETS UP TO OUR WEST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT LESS THAN 15 MPH...BUT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTERN CATSKILLS COULD SEE GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THE SOUTH WINDS
5-15 MPH WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN POSSIBLY
REACHING UP BRIEFLY UP TO 45 MPH.
SUNDAY...THE WIND WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST GENERALLY 5-15
MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A LINE OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CONTAINING MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
SOUTH OF ALBANY.
PROJECTED RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH
TO AROUND AN INCH...HIGHEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MIGHT BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM.
OVERALL THIS WILL BE AN EXTREMELY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL SINCE IT IS
HAS BEEN OVER TWO WEEKS SINCE MUCH OF THE REGION HAS SEEN A
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. SINCE IT HAS BEEN SO DRY OF LATE...THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE NO RESPONSE TO WATERSHEDS.
RAINFALL RATES MIGHT BRIEFLY BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADS AND AREAS WHERE DRAINS GET CLOGGED.
EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...THE RAIN
WILL BE OVER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY TUESDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
417 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY
TONIGHT. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THEN GIVE WAY TO A COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A POTENT UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING. A SATELLITE LOOP OF WATER VAPOR NICELY SHOWS THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFYING AND ACQUIRING A NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE
MS VALLEY AS A VORT MAX DIGS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.
AT THE SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED NEAR THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE APPALACHIANS AT 07Z. DEEP SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT IS TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE EAST COAST. A
CONNECTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC AND GULF OF MEXICO
CAN ALSO BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING. USING THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE, THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP
WILL OCCUR WITH THE COLD FRONT AND REACH THE WESTERN ZONES OF THE
CWA AROUND 10 OR 11 AM. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, ENDING NEAR PHILLY AROUND MIDDAY AND
LOCATIONS NEAR THE PASSAIC RIVER DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. PRECIP
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN ONE-HALF
INCH. HOWEVER, HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW RAIN
BAND TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ALONG THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES THE
COAST. A BRIEF HEAVY SHOWER OR EVEN THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS BAND LATER THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT,
AND WITH A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH, THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FRONT WILL STILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A 999 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT IN NEW ENGLAND
AND 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
STRONG OVER OUR REGION.
SIGNIFICANT CAA WILL ALLOW NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER TO PREVENT
DECOUPLING AND FOR THE WESTERLY WIND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WILL LIKELY SEE COLD AIR STRATOCU OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE EVENING
UNTIL MUCH DRIER AIR REACHES THE AREA AND ERODES THE LINGERING
CLOUDS. THE 0C 850 MB TEMPS MAKES ITS TRIUMPHANT RETURN TO THE AREA
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 30S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST NJ AND
NORTHEAST PA. THESE AIR TEMPS WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST
FORMATION BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND WARM GROUND TEMPS WILL
MAKE THE SETUP FOR FROST UNFAVORABLE. MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA INCLUDING ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: WE WILL BE IN A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT DRY. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO START IN
THIS PERIOD WILL COMPLETE AN IMPRESSIVE PLUMMET AND THIS WILL
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH THE COOLEST DAY IN A WHILE. MANY
LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 FOR HIGHS. OVERALL THE 10/04 00Z
GFS LOOKS WAY TO COOL AS IT EXTENDS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO OUR
REGION. ON THE OTHER HAND THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS LOOK TO WARM. THE
LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WENT WARMER WITH TWO THIRDS EMPHASIS PLACED
ON THE MET AND ECMWF. TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH BOTH
SURFACE AND SOIL TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION EVEN WITH CALM WINDS ATTM
FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY (35-40)(40`S ELSEWHERE).IT SHOULD
BE POINTED OUT IF THE FORECAST TRENDS COOLER THEN THE FROST THREAT
WOULD INCREASE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: WE WILL SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNTIED STATES. THE RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE MAV/MET AND
10/04 00Z GFS LOOK TO COOL GIVEN MODELED 925 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND
11C WHICH WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOW 70`S FOR PHL SE AND COOLER
NW. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 20 MPH TO BE TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE DECAYING AS IT TRIES TO FIGHT OFF THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST
LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE.HOWEVER, INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE THREAT
FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL LIKELY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIGHTER
TEMPERATURES SPREAD AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE MAV/MET IN
THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT : THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE REGION RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECT ANOTHER
SEASONAL DAY. LOWS A BIT WARMER GIVEN MORNING CLOUDS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ON THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS LIKELY TO KEEP A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES FOR MOST OF THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WILL FINALLY KICK OUT IN THIS PERIOD, RESULTING IN A
WARMER MORE ZONAL PATTERN. HOWEVER ONE MORE COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO
APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. QUITE
A TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF 10/04 00Z RUNS. RIGHT
NOW PREFER THE 00Z ECMWF OVERALL BUT DID NOT GO AS WARM GIVEN THE
MODEL DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
IFR CIGS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU RDG/ABE
AROUND 12-13Z, 13-15Z FOR THE PHILLY TERMINALS AND 15-17Z FOR
ACY/MIV. THE FRONT WILL BE MARKED BY A WIND SHIFT FROM S-SE TO W, AN
END TO THE SHOWERS AND IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST
20-25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT.
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS STRONG CAA ARRIVES. W-NW WINDS WILL RELAX TO BELOW 10 KT
AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CAUSE
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 10-15 KNOTS AT TIMES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. WEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS
WELL AS THE DELAWARE BAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE
BEEN GUSTING 20-25 KT SO FAR WHILE SEAS JUST OFFSHORE ARE 5-6 FT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER DE
BAY AND EARLY THIS AFTN IN THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. THESE WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KT, ESPECIALLY
THIS EVENING ONCE COLDER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES. THE WARMER WATER TEMPS
WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND AM CONCERNED
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING: WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SEAS AND
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING CLOSER TO SCA CRITERIA.
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOME INTERMITTENT 25 KNOT WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTH WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008-
012-015.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ019-
020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
333 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2014
Another chilly fall day expected with well below average temperatures
and gusty WNW winds as the region remains locked in deep cyclonic
flow. Probably the biggest item of concern is the amount of cloud
cover today. Current trajectory of the thicker stratus across
eastern MN/northeast IA would be across northern/central Illinois.
Model low level RH progs suggest some diurnal cu across the
northeast quarter of the CWA, with the RAP more agressive with
both coverage and also bringing the cu further southeast into
eastern MO. I have given some weight to the RAP and have bumped up
the sky coverage from the previous forecast.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2014
A cold night on tap as the weak surface ridge now centered through
the high Plains slides across the area and results in gradually
backing surface winds. Warm advection aloft will get underway and
there will be an increase in mid/high clouds overnight in advance
of the next upstream NW flow disturbance. Just how low the
temperatures get tonight will be strongly based on the arrival of
the clouds. The main thrust of these looks through central and
northeast MO, while southern sections of the CWA will remain void
of clouds longer. I have mentioned patchy frost across the eastern
Ozarks into portions of southwest IL with this in mind, and due to
topography-drainage and lighter winds where I have mins in the mid
30s.
Sunday into Tuesday the forecast is a bit tricky thanks to a series
of NW flow disturbances traversing the region and associated weak
surface boundaries. The first of these on Sunday is accompanied by
a weak surface low/trof and trailing cold front with good low
level warm advection ahead of it. High temperatures should be
quite a bit warmer as a result. Some of the guidance is generating
light and spotty QPF with the ECMWF the most agressive. After
collaboration with neighboring offices, will hold off introducing
any pops and let the next shift get a fresher look. This initial
boundary then washes out with yet another disturbance and front
forecast to impact the area late Sunday night and into Monday.
This system will have a bit better moisture (albiet still limited) and
steep lapse rates to yield weak instability, thus I have added the
mention of thunder across the southeast half of the CWA on Monday
afternoon. Tuesday looks largely dry and warmer with average to
above average temperatures continuing into Thursday. Confidence in
the forecast diminishes Thursday into Friday with the GFS and
ECMWF and ensemble members exhibiting some rather large
differences.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2014
VFR flight conditions and west-northwest flow will continue to
prevail. Scattered to broken clouds around 6,000 FT will continue
to move across the area through the remainder of the night and
into Saturday. Low level wind shear conditions will persist with
northwest wind increasing from around 5 to 8 kts at the surface to
around 30kts at 1,000 FT or just slightly lower. Wind shear
conditions should subside Saturday morning after sunrise when wind
will again pick up to around 12 to 14 kts with gusts to 20 to 25
kts. Wind gusts will diminish during the late afternoon.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR flight conditions and west-northwest flow will continue to
prevail. Expect primarily scattered clouds around 6,000 ft for the
rest of the night, but a broken ceiling will occasionally develop.
Low level wind shear conditions will persist with northwest wind
increasing from around 5 to 8 kts at the surface to around 30kts
at 1,000 FT or just slightly lower. Wind shear conditions should
subside Saturday morning after sunrise when wind will again pick
up to around 12 to 14 kts with gusts to 20 to 25 kts. Wind gusts
will diminish during the late afternoon.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
326 AM MDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...
THE WEEKEND WILL BE MILD AND BREEZY TO WINDY BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT.
TODAY...WE EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME LOWER
70S F IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT WHERE MIXING WILL BE MOST EFFICIENT. THE
00 UTC BIAS-CORRECTED...MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SERVED AS AN INITIAL
BASIS FOR TODAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...BUT WE THEN WEIGHTED
THE FINAL NUMBERS A BIT TOWARD THE 00 UTC GFS MOS /MAV/ SINCE THAT
GUIDANCE OFTEN DOES WELL ON THE HIGH PLAINS WITH NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS. PLUS...WE DID HAVE A BIT OF A COOL BIAS ON FRI...ALTHOUGH A
GREATER AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE PRESENT TODAY. WE DIDN/T ADD
ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST ANYWHERE WITH NO REAL
STRONG FORCING OTHER THAN WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...BUT WE SHOULD
NOTE THAT SOME OVERNIGHT HRRR RUNS HAVE CALLED FOR SOME SHOWERS IN
SOUTHEASTERN MT DURING THE DAY. FINALLY...IT WILL BE WINDY /MAINLY
IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY/ WITH 30-35 KT WINDS SEEN
NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM LIVINGSTON TO BILLINGS AND
SHERIDAN TO GO WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. THAT SHOULD BE GOOD
ENOUGH FOR SOME GUSTS TO 30 OR 35 MPH IN THOSE AREAS AT TIMES.
TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO WRITE HOME ABOUT AS TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE 40S F IN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS. WE SERIOUSLY THOUGHT
ABOUT ADDING LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE BROADUS...
MILES CITY AND HYSHAM AREAS AS JET-STREAK-AIDED FORCING INCREASES.
HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT VERY SATURATED ALOFT AND THERE/S
NOT MUCH STATISTICAL SUPPORT FOR POPS...SO WE LEFT A DRY FORECAST.
SUN...WE HAVE SOME LOW SHOWER CHANCES IN SOUTHEASTERN MT SINCE THE
AREA WILL BE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN INTENSIFYING JET STREAK
AT 300 MB. THE SHOWER CHANCES PUSH EAST WITH THE JET STREAK DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALSO ENABLE AN ENVIRONMENT WHICH FAVORS
GUSTY WINDS OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT ON ITS SUBSIDENT RIGHT EXIT ZONE.
HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE WELL INTO THE 60S F ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN MT
AND NORTH CENTRAL WY. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
DESPITE BASIC 500MB PATTERN SIMILARITIES...MODELS HAVE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SO LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXTENDED REGARDING TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION.
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS
LARGE RIDGE OVER WEST COAST WITH LARGE CLOSED HUDSON BAY LOW. THIS
PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER A MILD/WARM ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW. SO
WE CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR A SEASONABLY WARM DAY...THOUGH BREEZY IN
THE EAST. BIG DIFFERENCES APPEAR BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
ECMWF BACKS DOORS A STRONG SURFACE FRONT INTO THE AREA AND
PRODUCES QPF ALONG A BAROCLINIC BAND. THE GFS EVENTUALLY BACKDOORS
A FRONT IN...BUT HAS IT DRY AND WEAK...AND YET BOTH MODELS HAVE
SIMILAR POSITIONS OF JET STREAM IN THE DAKOTAS. MY FEELING IS THE
ECMWF IS OVERDOING QPF AS DISTANT POSITION OF JET SHOULD NOT OFFER
MUCH SUPPORT TO SURFACE. THAT SAID...THE LOW POPS IN THE EAST I
INHERITED FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK REASONABLE...BUT I
WILL REMOVE THE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WHERE
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY PREVENT MUCH
SURFACE CONVERGENCE NOR LIFT/MOISTURE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE THEIR DIFFERENCES INTO
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH THE ECMWF MORE AGGRESSIVE WEST WITH THE
POSITION OF THE COOLER AIR. 700MB FLOW LOOKS PRETTY WESTERLY...SO
AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS...BUT KNOW BETTER THAN TO COMPLETELY THROW
THIS SOLUTION OUT. THEREFORE...WILL USE A BLEND AT MIDWEEK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WORKING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA. ECMWF FINALLY DRIES THINGS OUT BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS 500MB HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH. GFS MAINTAINS DRY NW FLOW. WILL HAVE
LATTER PART OF FRIDAY DRY AND BLEND TEMPS. DIFFERENCES FOR DAY 8
TOO WIDE TO GUESS AT...JUST USING BLEND WITH CLIMO. BT
&&
.AVIATION...
ANTICIPATE A DIURNALLY DRIVEN TREND OF WIND TODAY UNDER MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WESTERLY WIND WILL INCREASE IN MOST AREAS BY
17Z REACHING 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS BEFORE DECREASING AGAIN AROUND
02Z. BT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 072 049/068 046/072 049/071 046/061 039/048 033/049
0/N 11/B 00/U 11/U 11/B 22/W 21/B
LVM 069 042/068 041/071 044/070 044/065 036/054 031/057
0/N 11/B 00/U 00/U 12/W 22/W 22/W
HDN 071 048/069 044/072 046/071 043/063 039/052 035/052
0/N 11/N 10/U 12/W 21/B 22/W 22/W
MLS 068 048/066 042/069 048/065 042/059 037/049 033/050
1/N 12/W 00/B 12/W 21/B 11/B 11/B
4BQ 067 046/064 041/067 046/067 043/062 038/047 032/049
0/N 12/W 00/B 12/W 21/B 22/W 12/W
BHK 062 044/059 040/062 043/061 038/055 034/046 026/046
1/E 12/W 11/N 12/W 22/W 11/B 11/B
SHR 068 045/066 042/070 044/070 044/067 039/050 031/050
0/N 11/N 00/U 01/U 11/B 23/W 22/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
151 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL DURING
THE DAY. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
ONLY REACHING THE 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1045 PM EDT UPDATE...
DECIDED TO DECREASE POPS IN NEAR TERM AS RADAR TRENDS ARE JUST NOT
IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THAT BEING SAID COVERAGE MAY STILL
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING THUS DECIDED TO LEAVE POPS
THE SAME FOR AFTER 06Z. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST HOLDS.
PREVIOUS FORECAST...
700 PM EDT UPDATE...
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO PUSH INTO THE FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. COVERAGE OVERALL LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK BUT
ACTIVITY SHOULD FILL IN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PWAT VALUES
ARE AROUND AN INCH AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
THUS... WE COULD SEE A STEADY RAIN TONIGHT. DO NOT SEE FLOODING
BEING AN ISSUE TONIGHT AS WE HAVE BEEN DRY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF TIME. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE
MSLP TIGHTENS ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF OHIO.
STILL EXPECT THE FROPA TO BE AFTER 12Z SATURDAY MORNING.
UPDATED TEMPS AND WINDS TO MATCH CURRENT OBS ACROSS THE CWA.
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PLEASE READ THE DISCUSSION BELOW.
PREVIOUS FORECAST...
205 PM UPDATE...
SFC LOPRES SITTING NORTH OF LK MICHIGAN WITH CDFNT EXTNDG SWRD ALONG
THE IN/OH BORDER AND IS ON THE MV EAST. RAIN HAS DVLPD JUST AHD OF
SFC FNT AND HAS NOW MADE IT INTO WRN PA. CURRENT MVMNT HAS IT
EXPECTED TO MV INTO STEUBEN CNTY ARND 21Z. HOWEVER, LATEST HRRR IS
INDICATING PCPN ERODING AS IT HEADS EAST AND NOT SPREADING INTO WRN
SXNS UNTIL 00Z. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE A WET NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR
THE CWA AS SRLY FLOW FM THE GOM HAS WORKED ITS WAY NORTH WITH AN
AREA OF 1.5+ INCHES OF PW VALUES INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LKS.
EXPECT THAT THIS AREA OF MOISTURE WL MV QUICKLY THRU THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH MODERATE SHOWERS EXPECTED AT TIMES. CANNOT RULE OUT A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS K VALUES CLIMB ABV 30 HWVR MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
RMN PUNY BARELY CLIMBING TO 6 C/KM. THUS HV RMVD SLGT CHC THUNDER FM
THE GRIDS AS AM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH POTENTIAL.
THINK THAT WIDESPREAD RAIN WL BE IN AND OUT WITHIN A 3-HR PERIOD OF
TIME. BACK EDGE HAS MADE IT INTO ERN OHIO AND GIVEN SPEED OF SYSTEM
HV SPED UP TIMING ON LINE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS MVG INTO FINGER LKS
CNTYS BY MIDNIGHT AND OUT OF WRN CATS BY 06Z. LINGERING SHOWERS WL
RMN POSSIBLE BHND MAIN TROF THEREFORE HV RETAINED SCT-LKLY POPS THRU
MOST OF THE OVRNGT HRS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...
FROPA OCCURS SAT MRNG LVG COOL AIR IN ITS WAKE AS H8 TEMPS FALL
BLO 0C FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WL SET THE STAGE FOR LK EFFECT
SHOWERS, HWVR WITH FLOW BEING FM THE SW THRU THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM WL LKLY SEE ONLY CLDS SKIRTING THRU NRN ZONES. TEMPS WL RMN
STEADY OR FALL DRG THE DAY ON SATURDAY IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH EARLY HIGHS IN THE U50S/NR 60 THEN FALLING DRG THE DAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR NY CNTYS.
IF SKIES CAN CLR OUT SAT NGT, EXPECT MINS TO DIP INTO THE M30S.
HWVR CURRENT GROWING AREAS (FINGER LKS/WYOMING AND LACKAWANNA
VLYS) WL LKLY RMN IN THE U30S TO PREVENT ANY FROST SUN MRNG. THIS WILL
ALL DEPEND ON CLDS THO.
EXPECT TEMPS THRU THE END OF THE SHORT TERM TO APPCH SEASONAL
VALUES AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM DIVING SOUTH THRU CANADA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM FRI UPDATE... OVERALL...AN UNSETTLED PD IS IN STORE...AS A
DEEP ERN CANADIAN/CONUS TROUGH ONLY SLOWLY RELAXES ITS GRIP NEXT
WEEK.
ONE S/WV ROTATING ARND THE SERN QUADRANT OF THE NRN GREAT
LAKES UPR LOW WILL BRING A GOOD CHC OF SHWRS TUE INTO WED...WITH A
SFC FRNT ULTIMATELY SWEEPING THIS PCPN OFF THE COAST BY WED NGT.
AFTER A PROBABLE LULL ON THU WITH BRIEF S/WV RIDGING ALOFT...THE
NEXT SIG MID-LVL WV...ALG WITH A DVLPG E-W FRNTL ZN...LOOKS TO
IMPACT NY/PA TWDS THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A RENEWED CHC OF SHWRS.
TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR A BIT ABV CLIMO FOR EARLY OCT...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A NEGATIVE TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 13Z-15Z. IN GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. FROM APPROXIMATELY 09Z-13Z, CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE
LOW MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AT KITH/KBGM. AFTER FROPA LIGHT
SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN LOW LEVEL
DRYING WILL LEAD TO VFR CIGS. OVERNIGHT UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ANY
LAKE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF TERMINALS WITH JUST SCATTERED
STRATO CU OR SKC.
S/SE WINDS AT 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTHWEST
EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN LIGHT SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY TO MON...MAINLY VFR.
MON NGT INTO WED...SHRA WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY
TUE/TUE NGT.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...KAH/PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1148 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADD A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN BACK TOWARD THE GRAND
FORKS AREA AS RADAR SHOWS A LITTLE BAND OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP
(PROBABLY DRIZZLE) MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM ROSEAU-TVF TOWARD
THE RED RIVER. OTHEWISE THE WRN CLOUD AREA FROM BOTTINEAU THRU DVL
TO JAMESTOWN CONTINUES TO ERODE AND LAST FEW SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATE CLEARING CONTINUING. SO WITH THAT IN MIND PRETTY GOOD
CHANCE FAR WEST WILL DROP LATER TONIGHT INTO THE FREEZE RANGE.
FARTHER EAST...SOME CLEARING TRIED TO MAKE IT TO THE RED RIVER BUT
CLOUD BAND DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE RRV PROPER SHOULD KEEP GFK-FAR
IN THE CLOUDS TONIGHT AND THUS WARMER TEMPS. EASTERN FCST AREA IN
CLOUDS AND SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP...MOSTLY -RA. THE SNOW AREA WITH
HEAVIER PRECIP HAS NOW EXITED THE REGION INTO ECNTRL MN OR NW WI.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
LET WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AS WINDS SAFELY BELOW
ADVSIORY LEVELS. OTHERWISE COMPOSITE CANADIAN/US RADARS SHOW MAIN
BAND OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL DROPPING SOUTH FAIRLY QUICKLY AND NOW
CENTERED AROUND BEMIDJI-BAGLEY-PARK RAPIDS REGION. THIS WILL
PRODUCE QUICK COATING TO 1 INCH AS TEMPS FALL TO NEAR 32F AS THIS
MODERATE SNOW FALLS. TEMPS UPSTREAM CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S
AS SNOW ENDS AND RETURNS TO A LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. THIS BATCH OF
LIGHT SNOW WILL EXIT THE FCST AREA 03Z PERIOD...LEAVING JUST LIGHT
PRECIP IN THE FAR EASTERN FCST AREA THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW. OTHER ISSUE IS DEGREE OF CLOUD CLEARING IN ERN
ND/RRV. LARGE HOLE IN THE CLOUDS ON WESTERN EDGE OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY FROM WEST OF PORTAGE MANITOBA TO JUST WEST OF GFK. BAND OF
CLOUDS WEST OF THIS BACK THRU DVL-MOT-JMS. HRRR INSISTS THE CLOUDS
OVER ERN ND WILL GO AWAY TONIGHT AND BRING CLEARING INTO THE RRV
QUITE EARLY TONIGHT. UNSURE OF THIS BUT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED AS
EARLIER THAN EXPECTED CLEARING MAY RESULT IN A FEW DEGREES COLDER
TEMPS IN THE IMMEDIATE RRV. DID REMOVE FROST WORDING FROM GRIDS AS
THERE WILL NOT BE FROST WITH THE WIND AT LEAST HOLDING UP SOME
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE SNOW THREAT THIS EVENING IN NW
MN...THEN MORE PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL
AGREEMENT...WITH NO PREFERENCE TODAY.
FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIE DOWN THIS EVENING BUT STILL REMAIN
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A BAND OF SNOW MOVING INTO NW
MN...WITH SOME AREAS FROM NEAR ROSEAU INTO THE BEMIDJI AREA
GETTING AN INCH...PERHAPS UP TO 2 ON GRASSY SURFACES. TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 30S HERE. THE FAR WEST WILL HAVE THE
CHANCE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZE WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30...SO WILL ISSUE THE FREEZE WARNING HERE. FOR AREAS IN
THE VALLEY...EXPECT MORE CLOUDS TO REMAIN WITH WINDS HIGH ENOUGH
TO KEEP TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND 33...SO NOT EXPECTING A FREEZE
HERE. IF THIS AREA CLEARS AT ALL AND WINDS DECOUPLE SOME...THEN
THE FREEZE WARNING WOULD NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO THE EAST.
ON SATURDAY...EXPECT A DRY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR
ALL AREAS...AND IT COULD BECOME BREEZY BUT WINDS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG AS TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
FOR SUNDAY...EXPECT A DRY AND COOL DAY...ALBEIT A BIT WARMER FROM
SATURDAYS READINGS.
ON MONDAY..AN UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THERE SHOULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE NORTH DURING THE
MORNING...WITH SOME COLD RAIN BY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL...AND MAY BE EVEN COLDER IF THERE IS MORE PRECIP
AROUND THAN MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN CHALLENGE AT THE BEGINNING
OF THIS PERIOD IS STILL THE EVOLUTION OF A BROAD VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INITIALLY OVER ONTARIO. THIS COMPLEX
SHOULD HAVE RETROGRADED OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST TIME FRAME...AND BE IN THE PROCESS OF A MIGRATION TO
THE EAST AS THE EXTENDED PACKAGE BEGINS. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A
MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
QUICKLY THIS WILL OCCUR AS MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY GFS...IS
OFTEN TOO SWIFT IN MOVING SYSTEMS PROGRESSIVELY FROM WEST TO EAST.
AS THE FLOW DE-AMPLIFIES SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CREEPING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE "MORE
SEASONAL" 50S BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
VFR CIGS WILL REMAIN AT GFK-FAR TONIGHT AND LIKELY INTO MUCH OF
FRIDAY DAYTIME AS SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS AND
LINGERING 850 MB MOISTURE. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 12 TO 25 KTS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY. TVF/BJI AREA IN MVFR CIGS AND THIS
SHOULD LINGER THRU DAYBREAK BEFORE BASES RISE SOME FRIDAY DAYTIME.
DVL REGION WILL SEE SCATTERING OF VFR CLOUDS AND GENERALLY
SCATTERED CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH NORTH WINDS A TAD
LIGHTER IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-
024-026-028-038-049-052-054.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...WJB/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
159 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT. A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN REMAIN PARKED OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW
COLD DAYS ARE IN STORE THIS WEEKEND. THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY LIFT
OUT BY MID WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK TO NORMALS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM KBFD SOUTH TO KJST AT 05Z IS EVIDENT AS
ENHANCED LINEAR FEATURE IN RADAR REFLECTIVITY. AHEAD OF THE
CDFRONT WIDESPREAD LGT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ALONG AXIS OF LL
JET/PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS OVR EASTERN PA. LATEST RAP OUTPUT
SUGGESTS CDFRONT WILL EXIT THE EASTERN COUNTIES BTWN 10Z-11Z.
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AT 05Z SHOWS A FAIR AMT OF POST-FRONTAL LGT
RAIN FALLING ACROSS OHIO AND WESTERN PA. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU EARLY THIS MORNING
BEHIND THE FRONT. FURTHER EAST...DOWNSLOPING EAST WIND BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN LITTLE CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL RAIN BEHIND THE
FRONT FROM KUNV AND KAOO EASTWARD.
A LOOK AT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGEST
MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES...TO ARND
60F EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
CWA BY SUNRISE. FROPA IS AT OR JUST BEFORE 12Z ACROSS THE FAR
EAST.
A DRY AND MUCH COOLER SATURDAY IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA
AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT. COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL
LIKELY YIELD A GOOD DEAL OF STRATOCU AND EVEN SCT SHRA ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES/CENTRAL MTNS. A WSW BLYR FLOW SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS NORTH OF THE BORDER. FARTHER EAST...DOWNSLOPING
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD YIELD PT-MOSUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. TEMPS WILL MOVE UP ONLY A LITTLE...AND MAY FALL JUST A FEW
DEGS AT FIRST...ESP UNDER THE CLOUDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BIG QUESTION IN THE MID TERM IS LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION AND A RIDGE IS BUILDING IN THE MID LEVEL. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASING STABLE ATMOSPHERE AND A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD NOT PASS OVR THE
REGION SO THOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BE IDEAL FOR RAD
COOLING...CAN/T RULE OUT FROST/FREEZE ISSUES SAT NIGHT. ESPECIALLY
OVR THE ALLEGHENIES AS 850 MB TEMPS COULD BE IN THE 0 TO -5 CELSIUS
RANGE. DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD BE
PERSISTANT OVERNIGHT...NOT ALLOWING FOR AN INVERSION OR COLD POOL
TO FORM. THE BLYR FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM SW TO A MORE
WESTERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY...KEEPING LAKE EFFECT SHRA NORTH OF THE
BORDER. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THRU BASE OF UPPER TROF
COULD SUPPORT A FEW -SRHA ACROSS THE NW MTNS SUNDAY.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THROUGH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. EXPECT A WARMING TREND AS FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHERLY OUT AHEAD OF A DIGGING TROF THE SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND OVER THE GRT LKS. THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CANADA SHOULD BE THE MAIN
WEATHER DRIVER THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS APPEARS
LIKELY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER TROF LIFTS THROUGH. HAVE
SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE REGION THOUGH TIMING AND
STRENGTH UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN. MILDER AND MORE SETTLED WX APPEARS
LIKELY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT AND FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS WITH FRONT JUST WEST OF THE OFFICE. NOT
SEEING ANY THUNDER OR DAMAGING WINDS AT THIS POINT. 06Z TAFS
SENT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL PA TONIGHT. A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN REMAIN PARKED OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING NW PA AT 00Z IS SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH
KBFD AROUND 04Z AND KMDT-KLNS ABOUT 10Z-12Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10-15 KTS
THOUGH WINDS JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP WILL BE IN THE 30-40 KT
RANGE /KEEPING MENTION OF LLWS IN THE TERMINALS/. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND REMAIN AT SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS
NEAR THE SURFACE WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING ALOFT.
CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR IS POSS EARLY AT KJST IF WINDS TURN PAST 180 DEGREES
BEFORE FROPA. AS FAR AS PRECIP IS CONCERNED...FIRST AREA OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY WORK EASTWARD IMPACTING MAINLY
EASTERN HALF OF CWA THIS EVE AND EARLY MORNING. A HEAVIER BAND OF
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY WITH FROPA...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS /ESPECIALLY WEST/.
SAT WILL START OFF WITH WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS. IMPROVEMENT WILL
OCCUR MOST QUICKLY IN THE LOWER SUSQ AS WESTERLY WINDS BRING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WHICH WILL HELP DRY OUT LOWER LAYERS AND BRING
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE
WEST/CENTRAL /EVEN WITH A BIT OF A DRY SLOT SLIDING THROUGH/ AND
PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP LOWER CLOUDS LINGERING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING THROUGH MVFR BACK TO
VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AT ALL LOCALES EXCEPT KJST-KBFD. SCT
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
THROUGH THE DAY.
CLOUDS GET REINFORCED SAT NIGHT IN NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS
FLOW TURNS MORE OFF OF LAKE ERIE. SHOULD SEE CIG REDUCTIONS AT
KBFD AND MAYBE KJST...WHILE RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE SW SHOULD
KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ELSEWHERE.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...MVFR CIGS/SHRA PSBL NW...OTHERWISE VFR.
TUE...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM W...SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSS N/W.
WED...MVFR CIGS/SHRA PSBL NW...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
130 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT. A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN REMAIN PARKED OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW
COLD DAYS ARE IN STORE THIS WEEKEND. THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY LIFT
OUT BY MID WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK TO NORMALS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM KBFD SOUTH TO KJST AT 05Z IS EVIDENT AS
ENHANCED LINEAR FEATURE IN RADAR REFLECTIVITY. AHEAD OF THE
CDFRONT WIDESPREAD LGT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ALONG AXIS OF LL
JET/PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS OVR EASTERN PA. LATEST RAP OUTPUT
SUGGESTS CDFRONT WILL EXIT THE EASTERN COUNTIES BTWN 10Z-11Z.
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AT 05Z SHOWS A FAIR AMT OF POST-FRONTAL LGT
RAIN FALLING ACROSS OHIO AND WESTERN PA. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU EARLY THIS MORNING
BEHIND THE FRONT. FURTHER EAST...DOWNSLOPING EAST WIND BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN LITTLE CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL RAIN BEHIND THE
FRONT FROM KUNV AND KAOO EASTWARD.
A LOOK AT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGEST
MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES...TO ARND
60F EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
CWA BY SUNRISE. FROPA IS AT OR JUST BEFORE 12Z ACROSS THE FAR
EAST.
A DRY AND MUCH COOLER SATURDAY IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA
AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT. COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL
LIKELY YIELD A GOOD DEAL OF STRATOCU AND EVEN SCT SHRA ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES/CENTRAL MTNS. A WSW BLYR FLOW SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS NORTH OF THE BORDER. FARTHER EAST...DOWNSLOPING
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD YIELD PT-MOSUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. TEMPS WILL MOVE UP ONLY A LITTLE...AND MAY FALL JUST A FEW
DEGS AT FIRST...ESP UNDER THE CLOUDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BIG QUESTION IN THE MID TERM IS LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION AND A RIDGE IS BUILDING IN THE MID LEVEL. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASING STABLE ATMOSPHERE AND A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD NOT PASS OVR THE
REGION SO THOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BE IDEAL FOR RAD
COOLING...CAN/T RULE OUT FROST/FREEZE ISSUES SAT NIGHT. ESPECIALLY OVR
THE ALLEGHENIES AS 850 MB TEMPS COULD BE IN THE 0 TO -5 CELSIUS
RANGE. DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD BE
PERSISTANT OVERNIGHT...NOT ALLOWING FOR AN INVERSION OR COLD POOL
TO FORM. THE BLYR FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM SW TO A MORE
WESTERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY...KEEPING LAKE EFFECT SHRA NORTH OF THE
BORDER. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THRU BASE OF UPPER TROF
COULD SUPPORT A FEW -SRHA ACROSS THE NW MTNS SUNDAY.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THROUGH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. EXPECT A WARMING TREND AS FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHERLY OUT AHEAD OF A DIGGING TROF THE SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND OVER THE GRT LKS. THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CANADA SHOULD BE THE MAIN
WEATHER DRIVER THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS APPEARS
LIKELY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER TROF LIFTS THROUGH. HAVE
SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE REGION THOUGH TIMING AND
STRENGTH UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN. MILDER AND MORE SETTLED WX APPEARS
LIKELY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT AND FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL PA TONIGHT. A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN REMAIN PARKED OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING NW PA AT 00Z IS SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH
KBFD AROUND 04Z AND KMDT-KLNS ABOUT 10Z-12Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10-15 KTS
THOUGH WINDS JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP WILL BE IN THE 30-40 KT
RANGE /KEEPING MENTION OF LLWS IN THE TERMINALS/. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND REMAIN AT SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS
NEAR THE SURFACE WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING ALOFT.
CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR IS POSS EARLY AT KJST IF WINDS TURN PAST 180 DEGREES
BEFORE FROPA. AS FAR AS PRECIP IS CONCERNED...FIRST AREA OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY WORK EASTWARD IMPACTING MAINLY
EASTERN HALF OF CWA THIS EVE AND EARLY MORNING. A HEAVIER BAND OF
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY WITH FROPA...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS /ESPECIALLY WEST/.
SAT WILL START OFF WITH WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS. IMPROVEMENT WILL
OCCUR MOST QUICKLY IN THE LOWER SUSQ AS WESTERLY WINDS BRING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WHICH WILL HELP DRY OUT LOWER LAYERS AND BRING
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE
WEST/CENTRAL /EVEN WITH A BIT OF A DRY SLOT SLIDING THROUGH/ AND
PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP LOWER CLOUDS LINGERING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING THROUGH MVFR BACK TO
VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AT ALL LOCALES EXCEPT KJST-KBFD. SCT
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
THROUGH THE DAY.
CLOUDS GET REINFORCED SAT NIGHT IN NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS
FLOW TURNS MORE OFF OF LAKE ERIE. SHOULD SEE CIG REDUCTIONS AT
KBFD AND MAYBE KJST...WHILE RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE SW SHOULD
KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ELSEWHERE.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...MVFR CIGS/SHRA PSBL NW...OTHERWISE VFR.
TUE...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM W...SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSS N/W.
WED...MVFR CIGS/SHRA PSBL NW...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1045 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY
TONIGHT. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THEN GIVE WAY TO A COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND EXTENDING DOWN ACROSS CHESAPEAKE BAY.
MEANWHILE, A POTENT UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING. A SATELLITE LOOP OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LARGE-
SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFYING AND ACQUIRING A NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE MS
VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES REGION AS A VORT MAX DIGS AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.
OVERALL, NOT TOO MANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME WITH REGARDS
TO THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND SOME AREAS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL
PROGRESSING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WE DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS USING
THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO CAPTURE THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
OTHERWISE, MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK FOR TODAY BASED ON
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND THE EXPECTED INFLOW OF COOLER/DRIER AIR
LATER TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE, SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT MID
MORNING. USING THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE,
THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP WILL REACH THE WESTERN ZONES OF THE
CWA LATE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, ENDING NEAR PHILLY AROUND LATE MORNING TO
MIDDAY AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE NJ SHORE/PASSAIC RIVER DURING THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE
WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN ONE- HALF INCH. HOWEVER, HIRES GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW RAIN BAND TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST. A
BRIEF HEAVY SHOWER OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS BAND LATER THIS MORNING.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT
OF THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. THE POST-FRONTAL CAA SHOULD
OFFSET DAYTIME HEATING. ACCORDINGLY, TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON
SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO CURRENT READINGS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
LATE IN THE DAY WHEN MUCH COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT,
AND WITH A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH, THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FRONT WILL STILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A 999 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT IN NEW ENGLAND
AND 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
STRONG OVER OUR REGION.
SIGNIFICANT CAA WILL ALLOW NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER TO PREVENT
DECOUPLING AND FOR THE WESTERLY WIND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WILL LIKELY SEE COLD AIR STRATOCU OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE EVENING
UNTIL MUCH DRIER AIR REACHES THE AREA AND ERODES THE LINGERING
CLOUDS. THE 0C 850 MB TEMPS MAKES ITS TRIUMPHANT RETURN TO THE AREA
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 30S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST NJ AND
NORTHEAST PA. THESE AIR TEMPS WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST
FORMATION BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND WARM GROUND TEMPS WILL
MAKE THE SETUP FOR FROST UNFAVORABLE. MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA INCLUDING ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: WE WILL BE IN A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT DRY. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO START IN
THIS PERIOD WILL COMPLETE AN IMPRESSIVE PLUMMET AND THIS WILL
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH THE COOLEST DAY IN A WHILE. MANY
LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 FOR HIGHS. OVERALL THE 10/04 00Z
GFS LOOKS WAY TO COOL AS IT EXTENDS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO OUR
REGION. ON THE OTHER HAND THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS LOOK TO WARM. THE
LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WENT WARMER WITH TWO THIRDS EMPHASIS PLACED
ON THE MET AND ECMWF. TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH BOTH
SURFACE AND SOIL TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION EVEN WITH CALM WINDS ATTM
FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY (35-40)(40`S ELSEWHERE).IT SHOULD
BE POINTED OUT IF THE FORECAST TRENDS COOLER THEN THE FROST THREAT
WOULD INCREASE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: WE WILL SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNTIED STATES. THE RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE MAV/MET AND
10/04 00Z GFS LOOK TO COOL GIVEN MODELED 925 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND
11C WHICH WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOW 70`S FOR PHL SE AND COOLER
NW. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 20 MPH TO BE TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE DECAYING AS IT TRIES TO FIGHT OFF THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST
LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE.HOWEVER, INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE THREAT
FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL LIKELY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIGHTER
TEMPERATURES SPREAD AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE MAV/MET IN
THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT : THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE REGION RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECT ANOTHER
SEASONAL DAY. LOWS A BIT WARMER GIVEN MORNING CLOUDS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ON THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS LIKELY TO KEEP A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES FOR MOST OF THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WILL FINALLY KICK OUT IN THIS PERIOD, RESULTING IN A
WARMER MORE ZONAL PATTERN. HOWEVER ONE MORE COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO
APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. QUITE
A TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF 10/04 00Z RUNS. RIGHT
NOW PREFER THE 00Z ECMWF OVERALL BUT DID NOT GO AS WARM GIVEN THE
MODEL DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS, ALONG WITH SHOWERS, WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE TERMINALS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU 13-15Z FOR THE PHILLY TERMINALS AND
15-17Z FOR ACY/MIV. THE FRONT WILL BE MARKED BY A WIND SHIFT FROM
S-SE TO W, AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS. WINDS
MAY BRIEFLY GUST 20-25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT.
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS STRONG CAA ARRIVES. W-NW WINDS WILL RELAX TO BELOW 10 KT
AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CAUSE
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 10-15 KNOTS AT TIMES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. WEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS
WELL AS THE DELAWARE BAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE
BEEN GUSTING 20-25 KT SO FAR WHILE SEAS JUST OFFSHORE ARE 5-6 FT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER DE
BAY AND EARLY THIS AFTN IN THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. THESE WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KT, ESPECIALLY
THIS EVENING ONCE COLDER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES. THE WARMER WATER TEMPS
WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND AM CONCERNED
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING: WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SEAS AND
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING CLOSER TO SCA CRITERIA.
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOME INTERMITTENT 25 KNOT WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTH WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE HAVE HAD TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE LOWER PART OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AS CAMBRIDE CONTINUES TO RISE WITH DEPARTURES
AROUND 2.7 FEET; IT NOW LOOKS LIKE CAMBRIDGE WILL GET TO AT LEAST
4.5 FEET ABOVE MLLW. THE ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN BAY REMAINS AS
DEPARTURES FOR TOLCHESTER CONTINUES TO DECREASE. IF THEY END UP
GOING BACK UP, WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE WARNING BACK NORTHWARD.
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND TIDAL
DELAWARE RIVER WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. REEDY JUST BARELY
REACHED MINOR LEVELS AND PHILLY ENDED UP JUST SHORT. WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS NOW ACROSS THE AREA, THE NEXT HIGH TIDE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR LEVELS AT THIS TIME.
ALONG THE COAST, THE ASTRONOMICAL CONTRIBUTION TO THE TOTAL TIDE
LEVEL WILL BE A LITTLE LESS THIS MORNING FOR HIGH TIDE, SO
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE IN THE DELAWARE BAY AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THEN FOR THE NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS SHOULD BE OFFSHORE IN A POST-
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, SO TOTAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ016-
021.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NJZ017>019.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
012.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ015-
019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...KLEIN/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN/KLINE
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1013 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY
TONIGHT. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THEN GIVE WAY TO A COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND EXTENDING DOWN ACROSS CHESAPEAKE BAY.
MEANWHILE, A POTENT UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING. A SATELLITE LOOP OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LARGE-
SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFYING AND ACQUIRING A NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE MS
VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES REGION AS A VORT MAX DIGS AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.
OVERALL, NOT TOO MANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME WITH REGARDS
TO THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND SOME AREAS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL
PROGRESSING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WE DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS USING
THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO CAPTURE THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
OTHERWISE, MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK FOR TODAY BASED ON
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND THE EXPECTED INFLOW OF COOLER/DRIER AIR
LATER TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE, SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT MID
MORNING. USING THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE,
THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP WILL REACH THE WESTERN ZONES OF THE
CWA LATE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, ENDING NEAR PHILLY AROUND LATE MORNING TO
MIDDAY AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE NJ SHORE/PASSAIC RIVER DURING THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE
WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN ONE- HALF INCH. HOWEVER, HIRES GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW RAIN BAND TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST. A
BRIEF HEAVY SHOWER OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS BAND LATER THIS MORNING.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT
OF THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. THE POST-FRONTAL CAA SHOULD
OFFSET DAYTIME HEATING. ACCORDINGLY, TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON
SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO CURRENT READINGS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
LATE IN THE DAY WHEN MUCH COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT,
AND WITH A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH, THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FRONT WILL STILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A 999 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT IN NEW ENGLAND
AND 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
STRONG OVER OUR REGION.
SIGNIFICANT CAA WILL ALLOW NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER TO PREVENT
DECOUPLING AND FOR THE WESTERLY WIND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WILL LIKELY SEE COLD AIR STRATOCU OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE EVENING
UNTIL MUCH DRIER AIR REACHES THE AREA AND ERODES THE LINGERING
CLOUDS. THE 0C 850 MB TEMPS MAKES ITS TRIUMPHANT RETURN TO THE AREA
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 30S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST NJ AND
NORTHEAST PA. THESE AIR TEMPS WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST
FORMATION BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND WARM GROUND TEMPS WILL
MAKE THE SETUP FOR FROST UNFAVORABLE. MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA INCLUDING ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: WE WILL BE IN A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT DRY. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO START IN
THIS PERIOD WILL COMPLETE AN IMPRESSIVE PLUMMET AND THIS WILL
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH THE COOLEST DAY IN A WHILE. MANY
LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 FOR HIGHS. OVERALL THE 10/04 00Z
GFS LOOKS WAY TO COOL AS IT EXTENDS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO OUR
REGION. ON THE OTHER HAND THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS LOOK TO WARM. THE
LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WENT WARMER WITH TWO THIRDS EMPHASIS PLACED
ON THE MET AND ECMWF. TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH BOTH
SURFACE AND SOIL TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION EVEN WITH CALM WINDS ATTM
FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY (35-40)(40`S ELSEWHERE).IT SHOULD
BE POINTED OUT IF THE FORECAST TRENDS COOLER THEN THE FROST THREAT
WOULD INCREASE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: WE WILL SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNTIED STATES. THE RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE MAV/MET AND
10/04 00Z GFS LOOK TO COOL GIVEN MODELED 925 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND
11C WHICH WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOW 70`S FOR PHL SE AND COOLER
NW. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 20 MPH TO BE TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE DECAYING AS IT TRIES TO FIGHT OFF THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST
LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE.HOWEVER, INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE THREAT
FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL LIKELY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIGHTER
TEMPERATURES SPREAD AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE MAV/MET IN
THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT : THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE REGION RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECT ANOTHER
SEASONAL DAY. LOWS A BIT WARMER GIVEN MORNING CLOUDS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ON THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS LIKELY TO KEEP A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES FOR MOST OF THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WILL FINALLY KICK OUT IN THIS PERIOD, RESULTING IN A
WARMER MORE ZONAL PATTERN. HOWEVER ONE MORE COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO
APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. QUITE
A TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF 10/04 00Z RUNS. RIGHT
NOW PREFER THE 00Z ECMWF OVERALL BUT DID NOT GO AS WARM GIVEN THE
MODEL DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS, ALONG WITH SHOWERS, WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE TERMINALS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU 13-15Z FOR THE PHILLY TERMINALS AND
15-17Z FOR ACY/MIV. THE FRONT WILL BE MARKED BY A WIND SHIFT FROM
S-SE TO W, AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS. WINDS
MAY BRIEFLY GUST 20-25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT.
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS STRONG CAA ARRIVES. W-NW WINDS WILL RELAX TO BELOW 10 KT
AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CAUSE
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 10-15 KNOTS AT TIMES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. WEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS
WELL AS THE DELAWARE BAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE
BEEN GUSTING 20-25 KT SO FAR WHILE SEAS JUST OFFSHORE ARE 5-6 FT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER DE
BAY AND EARLY THIS AFTN IN THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. THESE WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KT, ESPECIALLY
THIS EVENING ONCE COLDER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES. THE WARMER WATER TEMPS
WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND AM CONCERNED
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING: WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SEAS AND
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING CLOSER TO SCA CRITERIA.
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOME INTERMITTENT 25 KNOT WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTH WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY WAS
CANCELLED AS THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE HAS PASSED, AND WAS REPLACED
WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NOW THAT
NORTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY WINDS HAVE MADE IT TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, WE
EXPECT TIDAL DEPARTURES TO BEGIN TO DECREASE SOME. CBOFS SHOWS
TOLCHESTER GETTING CLOSE TO MINOR FLOOD LEVEL, AND WITH THE
CURRENT LEVELS SO HIGH, IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO LOWER
FURTHER. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE
WAS EXTENDED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE UPCOMING HIGH
TIDE AS CBOFS SHOWS CAMBRIDGE GETTING AROUND 4 FEET THIS MORNING.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND
THE LOWER DELAWARE RIVER. POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE AROUND 2 FT
AT SHIP JOHN SHOALS AND REEDY POINT, WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO WATER
LEVELS PEAKING AT ADVISORY THRESHOLD. HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND 10 AM FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
ALONG THE COAST,THE ASTRONOMICAL CONTRIBUTION TO THE TOTAL TIDE
LEVEL WILL BE A LITTLE LESS THIS MORNING FOR HIGH TIDE, SO
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE IN THE DELAWARE BAY AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THEN FOR THE NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS SHOULD BE OFFSHORE IN A POST-
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, SO TOTAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ016-
021.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NJZ017>019.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
012.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...KLEIN/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN/KLINE
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ROBERTSON/KLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
901 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY
TONIGHT. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THEN GIVE WAY TO A COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A POTENT UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING. A SATELLITE LOOP OF WATER VAPOR NICELY SHOWS THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFYING AND ACQUIRING A NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE
MS VALLEY AS A VORT MAX DIGS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.
AT THE SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED NEAR THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE APPALACHIANS AT 07Z. DEEP SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT IS TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE EAST COAST. A
CONNECTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC AND GULF OF MEXICO
CAN ALSO BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING. USING THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE, THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP
WILL REACH THE WESTERN ZONES OF THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, ENDING NEAR
PHILLY AROUND MIDDAY AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE NJ SHORE/PASSAIC RIVER
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN ONE-HALF INCH. HOWEVER, HIRES
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW RAIN BAND TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST.
A BRIEF HEAVY SHOWER OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS BAND LATER THIS MORNING.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT
OF THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. THE POST-FRONTAL CAA SHOULD
OFFSET DAYTIME HEATING. ACCORDINGLY, TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON
SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO CURRENT READINGS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
LATE IN THE DAY WHEN MUCH COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT,
AND WITH A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH, THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FRONT WILL STILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A 999 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT IN NEW ENGLAND
AND 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
STRONG OVER OUR REGION.
SIGNIFICANT CAA WILL ALLOW NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER TO PREVENT
DECOUPLING AND FOR THE WESTERLY WIND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WILL LIKELY SEE COLD AIR STRATOCU OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE EVENING
UNTIL MUCH DRIER AIR REACHES THE AREA AND ERODES THE LINGERING
CLOUDS. THE 0C 850 MB TEMPS MAKES ITS TRIUMPHANT RETURN TO THE AREA
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 30S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST NJ AND
NORTHEAST PA. THESE AIR TEMPS WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST
FORMATION BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND WARM GROUND TEMPS WILL
MAKE THE SETUP FOR FROST UNFAVORABLE. MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA INCLUDING ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: WE WILL BE IN A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT DRY. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO START IN
THIS PERIOD WILL COMPLETE AN IMPRESSIVE PLUMMET AND THIS WILL
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH THE COOLEST DAY IN A WHILE. MANY
LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 FOR HIGHS. OVERALL THE 10/04 00Z
GFS LOOKS WAY TO COOL AS IT EXTENDS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO OUR
REGION. ON THE OTHER HAND THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS LOOK TO WARM. THE
LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WENT WARMER WITH TWO THIRDS EMPHASIS PLACED
ON THE MET AND ECMWF. TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH BOTH
SURFACE AND SOIL TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION EVEN WITH CALM WINDS ATTM
FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY (35-40)(40`S ELSEWHERE).IT SHOULD
BE POINTED OUT IF THE FORECAST TRENDS COOLER THEN THE FROST THREAT
WOULD INCREASE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: WE WILL SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNTIED STATES. THE RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE MAV/MET AND
10/04 00Z GFS LOOK TO COOL GIVEN MODELED 925 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND
11C WHICH WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOW 70`S FOR PHL SE AND COOLER
NW. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 20 MPH TO BE TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE DECAYING AS IT TRIES TO FIGHT OFF THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST
LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE.HOWEVER, INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE THREAT
FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL LIKELY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIGHTER
TEMPERATURES SPREAD AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE MAV/MET IN
THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT : THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE REGION RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECT ANOTHER
SEASONAL DAY. LOWS A BIT WARMER GIVEN MORNING CLOUDS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ON THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS LIKELY TO KEEP A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES FOR MOST OF THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WILL FINALLY KICK OUT IN THIS PERIOD, RESULTING IN A
WARMER MORE ZONAL PATTERN. HOWEVER ONE MORE COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO
APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. QUITE
A TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF 10/04 00Z RUNS. RIGHT
NOW PREFER THE 00Z ECMWF OVERALL BUT DID NOT GO AS WARM GIVEN THE
MODEL DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
IFR CIGS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU RDG/ABE
AROUND 12-13Z, 13-15Z FOR THE PHILLY TERMINALS AND 15-17Z FOR
ACY/MIV. THE FRONT WILL BE MARKED BY A WIND SHIFT FROM S-SE TO W, AN
END TO THE SHOWERS AND IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST
20-25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT.
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS STRONG CAA ARRIVES. W-NW WINDS WILL RELAX TO BELOW 10 KT
AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CAUSE
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 10-15 KNOTS AT TIMES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. WEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS
WELL AS THE DELAWARE BAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE
BEEN GUSTING 20-25 KT SO FAR WHILE SEAS JUST OFFSHORE ARE 5-6 FT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER DE
BAY AND EARLY THIS AFTN IN THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. THESE WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KT, ESPECIALLY
THIS EVENING ONCE COLDER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES. THE WARMER WATER TEMPS
WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND AM CONCERNED
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING: WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SEAS AND
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING CLOSER TO SCA CRITERIA.
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOME INTERMITTENT 25 KNOT WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTH WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY WAS
CANCELLED AS THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE HAS PASSED, AND WAS REPLACED
WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NOW THAT
NORTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY WINDS HAVE MADE IT TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, WE
EXPECT TIDAL DEPARTURES TO BEGIN TO DECREASE SOME. CBOFS SHOWS
TOLCHESTER GETTING CLOSE TO MINOR FLOOD LEVEL, AND WITH THE
CURRENT LEVELS SO HIGH, IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO LOWER
FURTHER. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE
WAS EXTENDED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE UPCOMING HIGH
TIDE AS CBOFS SHOWS CAMBRIDGE GETTING AROUND 4 FEET THIS MORNING.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND
THE LOWER DELAWARE RIVER. POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE AROUND 2 FT
AT SHIP JOHN SHOALS AND REEDY POINT, WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO WATER
LEVELS PEAKING AT ADVISORY THRESHOLD. HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND 10 AM FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
ALONG THE COAST,THE ASTRONOMICAL CONTRIBUTION TO THE TOTAL TIDE
LEVEL WILL BE A LITTLE LESS THIS MORNING FOR HIGH TIDE, SO
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE IN THE DELAWARE BAY AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THEN FOR THE NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS SHOULD BE OFFSHORE IN A POST-
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, SO TOTAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ016-
021.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NJZ017>019.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
012.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ROBERTSON/KLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
634 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY
TONIGHT. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THEN GIVE WAY TO A COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A POTENT UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING. A SATELLITE LOOP OF WATER VAPOR NICELY SHOWS THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFYING AND ACQUIRING A NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE
MS VALLEY AS A VORT MAX DIGS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.
AT THE SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED NEAR THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE APPALACHIANS AT 07Z. DEEP SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT IS TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE EAST COAST. A
CONNECTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC AND GULF OF MEXICO
CAN ALSO BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING. USING THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE, THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP
WILL REACH THE WESTERN ZONES OF THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, ENDING NEAR
PHILLY AROUND MIDDAY AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE NJ SHORE/PASSAIC RIVER
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN ONE-HALF INCH. HOWEVER, HIRES
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW RAIN BAND TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST.
A BRIEF HEAVY SHOWER OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS BAND LATER THIS MORNING.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT
OF THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. THE POST-FRONTAL CAA SHOULD
OFFSET DAYTIME HEATING. ACCORDINGLY, TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON
SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO CURRENT READINGS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
LATE IN THE DAY WHEN MUCH COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT,
AND WITH A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH, THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FRONT WILL STILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A 999 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT IN NEW ENGLAND
AND 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
STRONG OVER OUR REGION.
SIGNIFICANT CAA WILL ALLOW NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER TO PREVENT
DECOUPLING AND FOR THE WESTERLY WIND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WILL LIKELY SEE COLD AIR STRATOCU OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE EVENING
UNTIL MUCH DRIER AIR REACHES THE AREA AND ERODES THE LINGERING
CLOUDS. THE 0C 850 MB TEMPS MAKES ITS TRIUMPHANT RETURN TO THE AREA
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 30S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST NJ AND
NORTHEAST PA. THESE AIR TEMPS WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST
FORMATION BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND WARM GROUND TEMPS WILL
MAKE THE SETUP FOR FROST UNFAVORABLE. MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA INCLUDING ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: WE WILL BE IN A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT DRY. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO START IN
THIS PERIOD WILL COMPLETE AN IMPRESSIVE PLUMMET AND THIS WILL
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH THE COOLEST DAY IN A WHILE. MANY
LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 FOR HIGHS. OVERALL THE 10/04 00Z
GFS LOOKS WAY TO COOL AS IT EXTENDS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO OUR
REGION. ON THE OTHER HAND THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS LOOK TO WARM. THE
LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WENT WARMER WITH TWO THIRDS EMPHASIS PLACED
ON THE MET AND ECMWF. TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH BOTH
SURFACE AND SOIL TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION EVEN WITH CALM WINDS ATTM
FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY (35-40)(40`S ELSEWHERE).IT SHOULD
BE POINTED OUT IF THE FORECAST TRENDS COOLER THEN THE FROST THREAT
WOULD INCREASE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: WE WILL SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNTIED STATES. THE RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE MAV/MET AND
10/04 00Z GFS LOOK TO COOL GIVEN MODELED 925 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND
11C WHICH WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOW 70`S FOR PHL SE AND COOLER
NW. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 20 MPH TO BE TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE DECAYING AS IT TRIES TO FIGHT OFF THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST
LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE.HOWEVER, INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE THREAT
FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL LIKELY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIGHTER
TEMPERATURES SPREAD AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE MAV/MET IN
THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT : THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE REGION RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECT ANOTHER
SEASONAL DAY. LOWS A BIT WARMER GIVEN MORNING CLOUDS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ON THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS LIKELY TO KEEP A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES FOR MOST OF THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WILL FINALLY KICK OUT IN THIS PERIOD, RESULTING IN A
WARMER MORE ZONAL PATTERN. HOWEVER ONE MORE COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO
APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. QUITE
A TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF 10/04 00Z RUNS. RIGHT
NOW PREFER THE 00Z ECMWF OVERALL BUT DID NOT GO AS WARM GIVEN THE
MODEL DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
IFR CIGS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU RDG/ABE
AROUND 12-13Z, 13-15Z FOR THE PHILLY TERMINALS AND 15-17Z FOR
ACY/MIV. THE FRONT WILL BE MARKED BY A WIND SHIFT FROM S-SE TO W, AN
END TO THE SHOWERS AND IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST
20-25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT.
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS STRONG CAA ARRIVES. W-NW WINDS WILL RELAX TO BELOW 10 KT
AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CAUSE
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 10-15 KNOTS AT TIMES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. WEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS
WELL AS THE DELAWARE BAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE
BEEN GUSTING 20-25 KT SO FAR WHILE SEAS JUST OFFSHORE ARE 5-6 FT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER DE
BAY AND EARLY THIS AFTN IN THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. THESE WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KT, ESPECIALLY
THIS EVENING ONCE COLDER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES. THE WARMER WATER TEMPS
WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND AM CONCERNED
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING: WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SEAS AND
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING CLOSER TO SCA CRITERIA.
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOME INTERMITTENT 25 KNOT WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTH WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU 9 AM FOR THE
NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF THE MD CHESAPEAKE BAY. THE TIDAL GAGE AT
TOLCHESTER BEACH REACHED MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING AT AND JUST
AFTER HIGH TIDE EARLIER THIS MORNING. TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE STILL
AROUND 2.5 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL AT TOLCHESTER. THIS HAS OCCURRED
IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT PREVENTED WATER FROM
DRAINING THE BAY. HIGH TIDES OCCUR LATEST IN THE NORTHERN MOST
PART OF THE BAY IN CECIL COUNTY AT AROUND 7 AM.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND
THE LOWER DELAWARE RIVER. POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE AROUND 2
FT AT SHIP JOHN SHOALS AND REEDY POINT, WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO
WATER LEVELS PEAKING AT ADVISORY THRESHOLD. HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 7 AND 9 AM FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
WE MAY ALSO NEED TO ISSUE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FARTHER UP
THE DELAWARE RIVER TOWARD PHILADELPHIA AND BURLINGTON COUNTIES.
HIGH TIDE DOESN`T OCCUR UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING UP THERE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO SEE IF ANOMALIES GO
DOWN AT ALL.
ALONG THE COAST,THE ASTRONOMICAL CONTRIBUTION TO THE TOTAL TIDE
LEVEL WILL BE A LITTLE LESS THIS MORNING FOR HIGH TIDE, SO FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE IN THE DELAWARE BAY AND ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THEN FOR THE NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE COAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS SHOULD BE OFFSHORE IN A POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT, SO TOTAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ016-
021.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008-
012-015.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ019-
020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
950 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
...UNFAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND...
...NEAR RECORD LOWS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS...
TODAY...CONVECTION OCCURRING WITH PRE FRONTAL TROUGH HAS BEEN
WEAKENING AS IT TRAVERSES THE PENINSULA AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
THIS MORNING WITH A DIMINISHING AREA OF SHOWERS AFFECTING SOUTHERN
SECTIONS. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE SHOWERS/DEBRIS
CLOUDS DIMINISH AND ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS BEFORE THE ACTUAL FRONT APPROACHES. THE HRRR MODEL DOES NOT
GENERATE MUCH CONVECTION AFTER THE DECAYING CONVECTION MOVES AWAY
FROM SOUTHERN SECTIONS. THE LOCAL WRF MODEL DOES SHOW SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COUNTIES AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THAT IS WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS...SO WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES THERE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN
THE NORTH RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING...THEN DRIER AIR WILL
START FILTERING IN. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD THERE TOO.
&&
.AVIATION...
VERY MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ALLOWING FOR A FEW
PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS. EXPECT LOCAL CEILINGS TO LIFT TO MVFR BY
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AT INTERIOR/NORTHERN TERMINALS AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR SHORTLY AFTER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH. EXPECT A CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY
KVRB-KFPR-KSUA ONCE CLOUDS DIMINISH...APPROXIMATELY 18-21Z AHEAD OF
THE FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION LOOKS GOOD.
TODAY...COOL FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS DURING
THE DAY CLEARING THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BOATING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TODAY AND
BECOME HAZARDOUS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 7 FEET ON NORTH WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS. SO HAVE RAISED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE GULF STREAM NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET
THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SUN...NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE AND SEAS 6-7
FEET IN THE GULF STREAM EXPECTED INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER
WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN BEGIN TO RELAX INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 5 FEET OFFSHORE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
LAST TIME TEMPS WERE BELOW 60 DEGREES...
DAB...MAY 18 (57)
MCO...APR 22 (57)
MLB...MAY 17 (59)
VRB...MAY 22 (59)
FPR...MAY 22 (57)
RECORD LOWS...
BEST CHANCE TO TIE OR BREAK LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL BE AT
DAYTONA BEACH BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. HOWEVER CURRENT
FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AT THE OTHER CLIMATE SITES WILL
ALSO BE CLOSE...GENERALLY WITHIN 2 TO 3 DEGREES.
10/05 10/06
DAYTONA BEACH 58 (1987) 57 (2010)
ORLANDO 56 (1929) 57 (1921)
MELBOURNE 59 (1938) 60 (1980)
VERO BEACH 60 (1987) 60 (1980)
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WEATHER...BLOTTMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1019 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER FLOW WILL
THEN FLATTEN OUT AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN CLOSER TO
NORMAL...BUT SYSTEMS MOVING ALONG IN THE FLOW WILL KEEP THE THREAT
OF RAIN AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING SOME SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...BUT
DO NOT BE FOOLED. THE SUN IS DOING LITTLE TO WARM TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA ONLY IN THE LOW 40S AS
OF 1330Z.
AREA OF STRATOCU ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LOW ALREADY EXPANDING INTO THE NORTHERN WABASH
VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL ENABLE CLOUDS TO QUICKLY FILL BACK IN OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL ACCOMPANY THE
DISTURBANCE ALOFT AS WELL...FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH LATE DAY.
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES COMBINED WITH SUBTLE INSTABILITY
SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR ICE PELLETS TO MIX IN WITH LIGHT RAIN
OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES TODAY. CHANCES LOOK LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP
OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.
OTHER CHANGE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE IS TO LOWER HIGHS BY A COUPLE
DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. RAP SURFACE TEMPS AND CURRENT LAMP DATA
BOTH SUPPORT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAY STILL SEE TEMPS
TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S OVER THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY WHERE MORE
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. COULD BE A CLOSE CALL FOR THE DAILY RECORD LOW
MAX AT KIND...49 DEGREES FROM 1885. BRISK WESTERLY WINDS WILL
EXACERBATE THE RAW CONDITIONS ALL DAY.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED FOR MOST ITEMS.
MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS ONE UPPER IMPULSE
EXITS THE AREA BUT ANOTHER APPROACHES. WITH PERHAPS SOME WEAK LIFT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT IMPULSE INTERACTING WITH THIS MOISTURE EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT.
THE CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME WIND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
BOTTOMING OUT. THUS EXPECT READINGS TO STAY ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK...AND THE WINDS SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD FROST FROM FORMING. WILL
MENTION PATCHY FROST SINCE SOME COULD FORM IN SHELTERED AREAS...BUT
WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORY PRODUCTS FOR TONIGHT.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT A FEW IMPULSES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
UPPER TROUGH. THESE WILL INTERACT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES. WILL GO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
AT THE MOMENT THE IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST OF THESE WILL IMPACT THE
AREA MONDAY...SO WENT HIGHEST POPS THEN.
FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ON...MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM FOR HIGHS GIVEN
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET MOS FOR HIGHS.
FOR LOWS GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
ONTARIO ON TUESDAY AND TO JAMES BAY TUESDAY NIGHT. IT DOES...A
TROUGH WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND FORCE A COLD
FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH
A MOIST ATMOSPHERE TO TRIGGER SHOWERS THAT WILL BE ENDING TUESDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AFTER A DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES AND RESULT IN MORE SHOWER CHANCES BY THURSDAY.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
PER REGIONAL BLEND LOOK GOOD FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 04/1500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
UPDATE...
INCREASED WIND GUSTS AT KIND.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH
PIVOTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND VFR CU STREAMS SOUTH IN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH. COULD BE BRIEF
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING...BUT MORE CU SHOULD MOVE WITH THE NEXT
IMPULSE. WOULD NOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS AT IND AND
LAF...BUT COVERAGE TOO LOW TO MENTION.
WINDS WILL BE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING
AND TO NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 23Z WITH SUNSET.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK/TDUD
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
948 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER FLOW WILL
THEN FLATTEN OUT AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN CLOSER TO
NORMAL...BUT SYSTEMS MOVING ALONG IN THE FLOW WILL KEEP THE THREAT
OF RAIN AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING SOME SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...BUT
DO NOT BE FOOLED. THE SUN IS DOING LITTLE TO WARM TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA ONLY IN THE LOW 40S AS
OF 1330Z.
AREA OF STRATOCU ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LOW ALREADY EXPANDING INTO THE NORTHERN WABASH
VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL ENABLE CLOUDS TO QUICKLY FILL BACK IN OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL ACCOMPANY THE
DISTURBANCE ALOFT AS WELL...FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH LATE DAY.
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES COMBINED WITH SUBTLE INSTABILITY
SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR ICE PELLETS TO MIX IN WITH LIGHT RAIN
OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES TODAY. CHANCES LOOK LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP
OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.
OTHER CHANGE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE IS TO LOWER HIGHS BY A COUPLE
DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. RAP SURFACE TEMPS AND CURRENT LAMP DATA
BOTH SUPPORT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAY STILL SEE TEMPS
TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S OVER THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY WHERE MORE
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. COULD BE A CLOSE CALL FOR THE DAILY RECORD LOW
MAX AT KIND...49 DEGREES FROM 1885. BRISK WESTERLY WINDS WILL
EXACERBATE THE RAW CONDITIONS ALL DAY.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED FOR MOST ITEMS.
MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS ONE UPPER IMPULSE
EXITS THE AREA BUT ANOTHER APPROACHES. WITH PERHAPS SOME WEAK LIFT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT IMPULSE INTERACTING WITH THIS MOISTURE EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT.
THE CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME WIND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
BOTTOMING OUT. THUS EXPECT READINGS TO STAY ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK...AND THE WINDS SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD FROST FROM FORMING. WILL
MENTION PATCHY FROST SINCE SOME COULD FORM IN SHELTERED AREAS...BUT
WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORY PRODUCTS FOR TONIGHT.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT A FEW IMPULSES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
UPPER TROUGH. THESE WILL INTERACT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES. WILL GO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
AT THE MOMENT THE IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST OF THESE WILL IMPACT THE
AREA MONDAY...SO WENT HIGHEST POPS THEN.
FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ON...MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM FOR HIGHS GIVEN
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET MOS FOR HIGHS.
FOR LOWS GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
ONTARIO ON TUESDAY AND TO JAMES BAY TUESDAY NIGHT. IT DOES...A
TROUGH WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND FORCE A COLD
FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH
A MOIST ATMOSPHERE TO TRIGGER SHOWERS THAT WILL BE ENDING TUESDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AFTER A DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES AND RESULT IN MORE SHOWER CHANCES BY THURSDAY.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
PER REGIONAL BLEND LOOK GOOD FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 041200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH
PIVOTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND VFR CU STREAMS SOUTH IN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH. COULD BE BRIEF
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING...BUT MORE CU SHOULD MOVE WITH THE NEXT
IMPULSE. WOULD NOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS AT IND AND
LAF...BUT COVERAGE TOO LOW TO MENTION.
WINDS WILL BE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING
AND TO NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 23Z WITH SUNSET.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
738 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 736 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014
RADAR TRENDS THE PAST 90 MINUTES SHOW A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION. RAP TRENDS INDICATE THE OVERALL FORCING WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING BRINGING AN EARLIER END TO
THE PRECIPITATION. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS/CO-OP REPORTS THE
PRECIPITATION IS MORE OF A MIX NOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014
MORE OBSERVATION SITES ARE REPORTING LIGHT SNOW...UNKNOWN PRECIP
OR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO
BETTER FIT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. RADAR DOES SHOW A POCKET OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF THE KCID AREA TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 453 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014
LIGHT SNOW IS NOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. A
FEW FLAKES OF SNOW HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT THE OFFICE SO THE RADAR
RETURNS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE METRO AREA MINIMALLY HAVE
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS SEVERAL WEAK TROFS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MIDWEST WITH 40S AND HIGHER FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014
RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN THAT WAS MOVING INTO NORTHEAST
IOWA. SEVERAL SITES INDICATE PURE SNOW FALLING WITH THE NEAREST SITE
BEING KDEH.
THE FORCING SUPPORTING THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA IN
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND OVERSPREAD ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN END
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID DAY.
THE DRYNESS OF THE OVERALL AIR WILL COOL THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS COOLING WILL RESULT IN A
RAIN/SNOW MIX THAN CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S SO ANY SNOW WILL MELT ON CONTACT.
AIR TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO ABOVE FREEZING SO NO ACCUMULATION WILL BE
SEEN ON ELEVATED SURFACES.
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE AFTER SUNRISE AND SLOW MIX WITH
AND CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN BEFORE ENDING AROUND MID DAY. CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH ONLY
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLD TEMPERATURES
AND LIGHTER WINDS DO BRING UP THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST LATE
TONIGHT FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-80.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014
MOST OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW MEANDERING ABOUT WESTERN ONTARIO PROVINCE THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD... WITH A FEW BOUTS OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE SHUTTLED DOWN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW. TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES AND SUBSEQUENT PCPN CHANCES
REMAINS ONE OF THE BIGGEST CHALLENGES GIVEN POOR MODEL CONSISTENCY.
BLENDED APPROACH HIGHLIGHTS MONDAY AND LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS MAIN WINDOWS OF ANY RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN NORTHWEST FLOW
ANY RAIN AMOUNTS MOSTLY SPOTTY AND LIGHT. THE QUESTION TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK IS EVENTUAL TRACK OF HURRICANE SIMON REMNANTS AND
WHETHER OR NOT THEY INTERACT WITH FRONTAL ZONE TO BRING BETTER RAIN
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AT
KCID/KMLI/KBRL WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KDBQ. AREAS
THAT ARE MVFR WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR AFT 18Z/04. AFT 00Z/05
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH FROST POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE
SUNDAY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
654 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2014
Another chilly fall day expected with well below average temperatures
and gusty WNW winds as the region remains locked in deep cyclonic
flow. Probably the biggest item of concern is the amount of cloud
cover today. Current trajectory of the thicker stratus across
eastern MN/northeast IA would be across northern/central Illinois.
Model low level RH progs suggest some diurnal cu across the
northeast quarter of the CWA, with the RAP more agressive with
both coverage and also bringing the cu further southeast into
eastern MO. I have given some weight to the RAP and have bumped up
the sky coverage from the previous forecast.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2014
A cold night on tap as the weak surface ridge now centered through
the high Plains slides across the area and results in gradually
backing surface winds. Warm advection aloft will get underway and
there will be an increase in mid/high clouds overnight in advance
of the next upstream NW flow disturbance. Just how low the
temperatures get tonight will be strongly based on the arrival of
the clouds. The main thrust of these looks through central and
northeast MO, while southern sections of the CWA will remain void
of clouds longer. I have mentioned patchy frost across the eastern
Ozarks into portions of southwest IL with this in mind, and due to
topography-drainage and lighter winds where I have mins in the mid
30s.
Sunday into Tuesday the forecast is a bit tricky thanks to a series
of NW flow disturbances traversing the region and associated weak
surface boundaries. The first of these on Sunday is accompanied by
a weak surface low/trof and trailing cold front with good low
level warm advection ahead of it. High temperatures should be
quite a bit warmer as a result. Some of the guidance is generating
light and spotty QPF with the ECMWF the most agressive. After
collaboration with neighboring offices, will hold off introducing
any pops and let the next shift get a fresher look. This initial
boundary then washes out with yet another disturbance and front
forecast to impact the area late Sunday night and into Monday.
This system will have a bit better moisture (albiet still limited) and
steep lapse rates to yield weak instability, thus I have added the
mention of thunder across the southeast half of the CWA on Monday
afternoon. Tuesday looks largely dry and warmer with average to
above average temperatures continuing into Thursday. Confidence in
the forecast diminishes Thursday into Friday with the GFS and
ECMWF and ensemble members exhibiting some rather large
differences.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 653 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2014
Forecast area remains in strong cyclonic flow. Some LLWS early
this morning to diminish by 15z as the winds mix down to the
surface. Winds to persist from the west with gusts to near 25kts
at times. As for cigs, to remain vfr with best chances of broken
cigs at KUIN, but scattered elsewhere. Winds to diminish towards
sunset and skies to clear out. Surface ridge to move in late
tonight with winds backing to the south, but remaining light. Will
see mid cloud deck move in ahead of next weather system.
Specifics for KSTL:
Forecast area remains in strong cyclonic flow. Some LLWS early
this morning to diminish by 15z as the winds mix down to the
surface. Winds to persist from the west with gusts to near 25kts
at times. As for cigs, to remain scattered over metro area. Winds to
diminish by 00z Sunday and skies to clear out. Surface ridge to
move in late tonight with winds backing to the south by 10z Sunday, but
remaining light. Will see mid cloud deck move in ahead of next
weather system.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
940 AM MDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.UPDATE...
STARTING OFF THE DAY WINDY AND CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA. THESE
ELEMENTS HAVE RESULTED IN A WARM START TO THE DAY AS WELL WITH
TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER WESTERN
FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO DECREASE SOME THIS
AFTERNOON AS NORTHWESTERLY JET DRAGS A POCKET OF DRIER AIR ALOFT
OVER THE AREA...SO TWEAKED FORECAST CLOUD COVER DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE THE DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
GUST IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. ENOUGH JET
DYNAMICS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA...TO
TRY AND DEVELOP AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER HERE AND THERE BUT DRY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THIS MAINLY VIRGA SO KEPT DRY FORECAST
IN TACT. CHAMBERS
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...
THE WEEKEND WILL BE MILD AND BREEZY TO WINDY BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT.
TODAY...WE EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME LOWER
70S F IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT WHERE MIXING WILL BE MOST EFFICIENT. THE
00 UTC BIAS-CORRECTED...MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SERVED AS AN INITIAL
BASIS FOR TODAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...BUT WE THEN WEIGHTED
THE FINAL NUMBERS A BIT TOWARD THE 00 UTC GFS MOS /MAV/ SINCE THAT
GUIDANCE OFTEN DOES WELL ON THE HIGH PLAINS WITH NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS. PLUS...WE DID HAVE A BIT OF A COOL BIAS ON FRI...ALTHOUGH A
GREATER AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE PRESENT TODAY. WE DIDN/T ADD
ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST ANYWHERE WITH NO REAL
STRONG FORCING OTHER THAN WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...BUT WE SHOULD
NOTE THAT SOME OVERNIGHT HRRR RUNS HAVE CALLED FOR SOME SHOWERS IN
SOUTHEASTERN MT DURING THE DAY. FINALLY...IT WILL BE WINDY /MAINLY
IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY/ WITH 30-35 KT WINDS SEEN
NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM LIVINGSTON TO BILLINGS AND
SHERIDAN TO GO WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. THAT SHOULD BE GOOD
ENOUGH FOR SOME GUSTS TO 30 OR 35 MPH IN THOSE AREAS AT TIMES.
TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO WRITE HOME ABOUT AS TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE 40S F IN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS. WE SERIOUSLY THOUGHT
ABOUT ADDING LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE BROADUS...
MILES CITY AND HYSHAM AREAS AS JET-STREAK-AIDED FORCING INCREASES.
HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT VERY SATURATED ALOFT AND THERE/S
NOT MUCH STATISTICAL SUPPORT FOR POPS...SO WE LEFT A DRY FORECAST.
SUN...WE HAVE SOME LOW SHOWER CHANCES IN SOUTHEASTERN MT SINCE THE
AREA WILL BE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN INTENSIFYING JET STREAK
AT 300 MB. THE SHOWER CHANCES PUSH EAST WITH THE JET STREAK DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALSO ENABLE AN ENVIRONMENT WHICH FAVORS
GUSTY WINDS OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT ON ITS SUBSIDENT RIGHT EXIT ZONE.
HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE WELL INTO THE 60S F ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN MT
AND NORTH CENTRAL WY. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
DESPITE BASIC 500MB PATTERN SIMILARITIES...MODELS HAVE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SO LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXTENDED REGARDING TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION.
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS
LARGE RIDGE OVER WEST COAST WITH LARGE CLOSED HUDSON BAY LOW. THIS
PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER A MILD/WARM ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW. SO
WE CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR A SEASONABLY WARM DAY...THOUGH BREEZY IN
THE EAST. BIG DIFFERENCES APPEAR BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
ECMWF BACKS DOORS A STRONG SURFACE FRONT INTO THE AREA AND
PRODUCES QPF ALONG A BAROCLINIC BAND. THE GFS EVENTUALLY BACKDOORS
A FRONT IN...BUT HAS IT DRY AND WEAK...AND YET BOTH MODELS HAVE
SIMILAR POSITIONS OF JET STREAM IN THE DAKOTAS. MY FEELING IS THE
ECMWF IS OVERDOING QPF AS DISTANT POSITION OF JET SHOULD NOT OFFER
MUCH SUPPORT TO SURFACE. THAT SAID...THE LOW POPS IN THE EAST I
INHERITED FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK REASONABLE...BUT I
WILL REMOVE THE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WHERE
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY PREVENT MUCH
SURFACE CONVERGENCE NOR LIFT/MOISTURE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE THEIR DIFFERENCES INTO
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH THE ECMWF MORE AGGRESSIVE WEST WITH THE
POSITION OF THE COOLER AIR. 700MB FLOW LOOKS PRETTY WESTERLY...SO
AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS...BUT KNOW BETTER THAN TO COMPLETELY THROW
THIS SOLUTION OUT. THEREFORE...WILL USE A BLEND AT MIDWEEK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WORKING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA. ECMWF FINALLY DRIES THINGS OUT BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS 500MB HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH. GFS MAINTAINS DRY NW FLOW. WILL HAVE
LATTER PART OF FRIDAY DRY AND BLEND TEMPS. DIFFERENCES FOR DAY 8
TO WIDE TO GUESS AT...JUST USING BLEND WITH CLIMO. BT
&&
.AVIATION...
ANTICIPATE A DIURNALLY DRIVEN TREND OF WIND TODAY UNDER MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WESTERLY WIND WILL INCREASE IN MOST AREAS BY
17Z REACHING 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS BEFORE DECREASING AGAIN AROUND
02Z. BT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 072 049/068 046/072 049/071 046/061 039/048 033/049
0/N 11/B 00/U 11/U 11/B 22/W 21/B
LVM 069 042/068 041/071 044/070 044/065 036/054 031/057
0/N 11/B 00/U 00/U 12/W 22/W 22/W
HDN 071 048/069 044/072 046/071 043/063 039/052 035/052
0/N 11/N 10/U 12/W 21/B 22/W 22/W
MLS 068 048/066 042/069 048/065 042/059 037/049 033/050
1/N 12/W 00/B 12/W 21/B 11/B 11/B
4BQ 067 046/064 041/067 046/067 043/062 038/047 032/049
0/N 12/W 00/B 12/W 21/B 22/W 12/W
BHK 062 044/059 040/062 043/061 038/055 034/046 026/046
1/B 12/W 11/N 12/W 22/W 11/B 11/B
SHR 068 045/066 042/070 044/070 044/067 039/050 031/050
0/N 11/N 00/U 01/U 11/B 23/W 22/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
939 AM MDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA ALONG THE MT/ND
BORDER THIS MORNING AND POPS WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THESE
OBSERVATIONS. RECENT HRRR RUNS SEEM TO CAPTURE THIS ACTIVITY WELL
AND SO THIS GUIDANCE WAS LARGELY USED TO ADJUST POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON TO MATCH UP WITH NEAR TERM EXPECTATIONS. MESOSCALE
DETAIL WAS ADDED TO THE WIND GRIDS AS WELL. WILL NEED TO WATCH
AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE WEST END OF FORT PECK LAKE...THOUGH
UNSURE IF THREE CONSECUTIVE HOURS OF SUSTAINED 20 MPH WILL BE MET.
TOMORROW LOOKS BETTER FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. FINAL CHANGES THIS
MORNING INCLUDED TWEAKS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER BASED
UPON SATELLITE IMAGERY. MALIAWCO
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD REVEAL AN AMPLIFIED
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. A STRONG UPPER-LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER WISCONSIN AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS SPREADING
ITS INFLUENCE OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN STATES WHILE AN ELONGATED
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN
STATES.
THIS PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA IN SOME VARIATION OF A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
INFLUENCE FROM THE WEST.
A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS LINED UP ROUGHLY ALONG A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES...CLIPPING
OUR SW ZONES. THIS DELINEATES THE WARM AIR IN THE SW FROM THE
COLDER AIR IN THE NE. EXPECT THIS TO TURN INTO AN ACTUAL WARM
FRONT LATER TODAY...WHICH COULD USHER IN SOME BREEZY TO GUSTY
WINDS WHICH MAY APPROACH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT AFTER LOOKING THROUGH ALL THE MODELS...IT SEEMS
THAT THE MAJORITY OF THEM ADVERTISE WINDS SLIGHTLY BELOW CRITERIA
AND ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS. CHOSE TO NOT GO WITH A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY TODAY IN FAVOR OF ANTICIPATING A MORE CERTAIN ADVISORY
FOR SUNDAY. BUT OF COURSE...TODAY STILL WARRANTS A CLOSE WATCH FOR
MID-DAY AND AFTERNOON WINDS NEAR THE LAKE.
SYNOPTIC SCALE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
ANY EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THIS FLOW WILL
BE LIMITED AT BEST AND MAY ONLY CLIP OUR NE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY COMFORTABLE AUTUMN WEEKEND FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. BMICKELSON
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK WITH A
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A TROUGH TO THE EAST. WEAK SHORTWAVES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL ONLY
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THEN...THE MODELS DISAGREE WITH NEXT WEEKEND AS THE GFS
BUILDS THE RIDGE ON THE PACIFIC COAST AT THE SAME TIME THAT THE
ECMWF WANTS TO BRING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INLAND TOWARDS MONTANA. WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES
OF NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS...VFR WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
150 PM PDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:39 PM PDT SATURDAY...
FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON HOW RAPIDLY THE COOL DOWN OCCURS. TODAY
THE HRRR MODEL EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED THE DELAYED SEA BREEZE
ONSET WELL AND THIS ALLOWED FOR COASTAL TEMPS IN THE PENINSULA TO
QUICKLY WARM UP INTO THE 80S BUT THEY HAVE SINCE COOLED OFF AS THE
SEA BREEZE HAS ARRIVED AS EXPECTED. SO FOR SOME AREAS ITS
CURRENTLY 20+ DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...BUT AT
OTHERS ITS VERY SIMILAR OR EVEN A LITTLE WARMER. OUR UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A DEEP AND STRONG EAST COAST TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY AND STEADILY WEAKEN
OVER OUR AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR MORE ONSHORE FLOW
TO DEVELOP AND THE EXPECTED COOLING TREND TO TAKE PLACE. READINGS
WILL FALL BACK TO CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
THE COAST COOLING MOST AT FIRST BUT AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS THE
COOLING TREND WILL BE EXPERIENCED EVEN AT THE HOTTER INTERIOR
LOCALES. WILL MONITOR THE PATH OF HURRICANE SIMON WHICH IS
CURRENTLY A MAJOR HURRICANE AND 5 DAY TRACK BRINGS IT INTO BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THE LONGER TERM PATTERN SUGGESTS THERE WILL NOT BE A
MECHANISM TO TRANSPORT THIS STORM OR ITS REMNANT MOISTURE INTO OUR
AREA. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE 7 DAY
PERIOD AS THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WEST. A TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT
OVER THE SOUTHWEST BY NEXT WEEKEND...AS A STRONGER RIDGE MOVES IN
OFF THE PACIFIC. WILL MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A STRONGER
OFFSHORE EVENT DEVELOPING AGAIN BY COLUMBUS DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:15 AM PDT SATURDAY...VFR AND MOSTLY LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WINDS 10-15 KT.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY (10/4)
ALONG WITH THE DATE(S) IT OCCURRED.
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/4...
KENTFIELD................99/1987/1933
SAN RAFAEL..............100/1980
NAPA....................100/1987
SAN FRANCISCO...........100/1987
SFO AIRPORT..............95/1987
OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN).......92/1987/1985
OAKLAND AIRPORT..........90/1953
RICHMOND.................99/1987
LIVERMORE...............106/1980
MOFFETT FIELD............94/1987
SAN JOSE.................96/1987
GILROY..................103/1980
MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/4...
MONTEREY.................94/1953
SANTA CRUZ..............101/1987
SALINAS..................98/1987
SALINAS AIRPORT.........100/1987
KING CITY...............106/1933
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 01:39 PM PDT SATURDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...HEAT ADVISORY...HEAT ADVISORY...MONTEREY BAY AREA...URBAN AREAS OF THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND SANTA CLARA VALLEY UNTIL 9 PM.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS
CLIMATE: BELL
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1016 AM PDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST. A GRADUAL
COOLING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK AS
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS AND THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:19 AM PDT SATURDAY...
MONITORING CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND TRENDS FOR MINOR TWEAKS IN THE
HOT WEATHER FORECAST TODAY. NOTED BUOYS REPORTING NW WINDS
CURRENTLY...WITH OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE LAND. HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ALREADY IN JEOPARDY ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF
NORTH BAY AND PENINSULA...WITH LOW 70S ALREADY NEAR OCEAN BEACH
AND NE WINDS. THIS WILL FURTHER COMPLICATE THE TIMING OF THE
COOLING SEA BREEZE PUSH IN AND AROUND SF. HAVE FOR NOW RAISED
TEMPERATURES BY A FEW (2-4) DEGREES. NOTED THAT UPDATED HRRR WINDS
FOR THE SF AREA SHOW OFFSHORE DIRECTION PERSISTING THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SUGGESTS WARMER READINGS ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE
DELAYED ONSET OF ONSHORE FLOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
THIS MORNING AS TO HOW RAPIDLY THE READINGS RISE UNDER CLEAR SKIES
WITH DRY AIR AND AN OFFSHORE WIND. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES AS 24 HOUR
CHANGE SHOWS MOST AREAS NEAR YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:15 AM PDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE STATE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF VERY
WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE AND
WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES...HAVE MADE CHANGES TO THE HEAT
ADVISORY TO INCLUDE COASTAL LOCATIONS OF THE MONTEREY BAY. THIS IS
BETTING ON A LATE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA-BREEZE AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING QUICKLY DURING THE LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES
MAY NOT REACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA IF THE
SEA-BREEZE DOES DEVELOP EARLY ENOUGH. OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY
AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY EXCEED THE 90 DEGREE MARK AGAIN IN
MANY LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO. THUS...HAVE KEPT
THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE URBAN AREAS OF THE BAY AREA DOWN
THROUGH THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...HAVE
DROPPED THE ADVISORY GIVEN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND THE
FACT THAT THESE AREAS ARE MORE PRONE TO THE HEAT.
BY SUNDAY...JUST ABOUT ALL COASTAL LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE SOME RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ALOFT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. WITH ONSHORE FLOW BECOMING MORE
PRONOUNCED BY MIDWEEK...A WEAK MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY RETURN AND
BRING OVERNIGHT/MORNING COASTAL CLOUDS BACK TO THE REGION. THIS
TOO WILL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS. ALBEIT
WEAKER...THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY INLAND.
LATE IN THE WEEK A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO
DISRUPT THE RIDGE ALOFT...CAUSING IT TO WEAKEN FURTHER. THIS TOO
WILL COOL THE AIR MASS ALOFT AND ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FALL
BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
PERSIST THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND
ASSOCIATED STORM TRACK STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:15 AM PDT SATURDAY...VFR AND MOSTLY LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WINDS 10-15 KT.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY (10/4)
ALONG WITH THE DATE(S) IT OCCURRED.
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/4...
KENTFIELD................99/1987/1933
SAN RAFAEL..............100/1980
NAPA....................100/1987
SAN FRANCISCO...........100/1987
SFO AIRPORT..............95/1987
OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN).......92/1987/1985
OAKLAND AIRPORT..........90/1953
RICHMOND.................99/1987
LIVERMORE...............106/1980
MOFFETT FIELD............94/1987
SAN JOSE.................96/1987
GILROY..................103/1980
MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/4...
MONTEREY.................94/1953
SANTA CRUZ..............101/1987
SALINAS..................98/1987
SALINAS AIRPORT.........100/1987
KING CITY...............106/1933
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 09:19 AM PDT SATURDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...HEAT ADVISORY...MONTEREY BAY AREA...URBAN AREAS OF THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS
CLIMATE: BELL
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
929 AM PDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST. A GRADUAL
COOLING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK AS
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS AND THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:19 AM PDT SATURDAY...
MONITORING CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND TRENDS FOR MINOR TWEAKS IN THE
HOT WEATHER FORECAST TODAY. NOTED BUOYS REPORTING NW WINDS
CURRENTLY...WITH OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE LAND. HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ALREADY IN JEOPARDY ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF
NORTH BAY AND PENINSULA...WITH LOW 70S ALREADY NEAR OCEAN BEACH
AND NE WINDS. THIS WILL FURTHER COMPLICATE THE TIMING OF THE
COOLING SEA BREEZE PUSH IN AND AROUND SF. HAVE FOR NOW RAISED
TEMPERATURES BY A FEW (2-4) DEGREES. NOTED THAT UPDATED HRRR WINDS
FOR THE SF AREA SHOW OFFSHORE DIRECTION PERSISTING THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SUGGESTS WARMER READINGS ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE
DELAYED ONSET OF ONSHORE FLOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
THIS MORNING AS TO HOW RAPIDLY THE READINGS RISE UNDER CLEAR SKIES
WITH DRY AIR AND AN OFFSHORE WIND. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES AS 24 HOUR
CHANGE SHOWS MOST AREAS NEAR YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:15 AM PDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE STATE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF VERY
WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE AND
WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES...HAVE MADE CHANGES TO THE HEAT
ADVISORY TO INCLUDE COASTAL LOCATIONS OF THE MONTEREY BAY. THIS IS
BETTING ON A LATE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA-BREEZE AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING QUICKLY DURING THE LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES
MAY NOT REACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA IF THE
SEA-BREEZE DOES DEVELOP EARLY ENOUGH. OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY
AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY EXCEED THE 90 DEGREE MARK AGAIN IN
MANY LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO. THUS...HAVE KEPT
THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE URBAN AREAS OF THE BAY AREA DOWN
THROUGH THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...HAVE
DROPPED THE ADVISORY GIVEN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND THE
FACT THAT THESE AREAS ARE MORE PRONE TO THE HEAT.
BY SUNDAY...JUST ABOUT ALL COASTAL LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE SOME RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ALOFT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. WITH ONSHORE FLOW BECOMING MORE
PRONOUNCED BY MIDWEEK...A WEAK MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY RETURN AND
BRING OVERNIGHT/MORNING COASTAL CLOUDS BACK TO THE REGION. THIS
TOO WILL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS. ALBEIT
WEAKER...THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY INLAND.
LATE IN THE WEEK A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO
DISRUPT THE RIDGE ALOFT...CAUSING IT TO WEAKEN FURTHER. THIS TOO
WILL COOL THE AIR MASS ALOFT AND ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FALL
BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
PERSIST THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND
ASSOCIATED STORM TRACK STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 04:15 AM PDT SATURDAY...VFR AND MOSTLY LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY (10/4)
ALONG WITH THE DATE(S) IT OCCURRED.
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/4...
KENTFIELD................99/1987/1933
SAN RAFAEL..............100/1980
NAPA....................100/1987
SAN FRANCISCO...........100/1987
SFO AIRPORT..............95/1987
OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN).......92/1987/1985
OAKLAND AIRPORT..........90/1953
RICHMOND.................99/1987
LIVERMORE...............106/1980
MOFFETT FIELD............94/1987
SAN JOSE.................96/1987
GILROY..................103/1980
MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/4...
MONTEREY.................94/1953
SANTA CRUZ..............101/1987
SALINAS..................98/1987
SALINAS AIRPORT.........100/1987
KING CITY...............106/1933
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 09:19 AM PDT SATURDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...HEAT ADVISORY...MONTEREY BAY AREA...URBAN AREAS OF THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: AC
CLIMATE: BELL
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
304 PM MDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SAT OCT 4 2014
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT THIS AFTERNOON. A BIT OF CLOUDINESS OVER
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE AND SOME LEE WAVES DOWNWIND OF
PARTS OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ARE ABOUT IT FOR MOISTURE. GUSTY
WINDS UP HIGH...IN THE FOOTHILLS AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS
ARE ALSO OCCURRING. THIS IS PRETTY MUCH THE STORY FOR SUNDAY AS
WELL. SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY HOLDS ON TO THE WAVE CLOUDS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AND HAVE ATTEMPTED TO ADD THIS TO THE
SKY GRIDS. SEVERAL OF THE MODELS ARE WANTING TO PAINT SOME LIGHT
QPF ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND WILL ADD SOME LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND MATCH UP WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES ALTHOUGH THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH QG
SUPPORT FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SAT OCT 4 2014
...BEAUTIFUL FALL WEATHER WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERS
RETURNING LATE NEXT WEEK...
MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE WILL CREEP IN
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO RISE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THAT MOISTURE TRANSITION TO THE
EAST LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THESE
TWO DAYS BEFORE TEMPS START DECREASING THURSDAY.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE NOT YET IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE INTERACTION OF BOTH THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SIMON TO
OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. EITHER SOLUTION
WILL BRING ADDED MOISTURE TO THE REGION INCREASING CHANCES OF
COOLER TEMPS WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND SOME AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT POPS AND WEATHER FOR
THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SAT OCT 4 2014
WINDS DID SWING AROUND TO EASTERLY DIRECTIONS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE
EARLIER RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP WERE SHOWING AND HAVE REMAINED ON
THE LIGHT SIDE...ALSO AS FORECAST BY THOSE MODELS. KAPA HAS BEEN
THE EXCEPTION WHERE A BIT STRONGER NORTHERLIES HAVE OCCURRED. THESE
MODELS STILL WANT TO BRING SOME LIGHT WESTERLIES INTO THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME HINT OF THAT SHOWING
UP IN SURFACE DATA AT THIS TIME BUT TOUGH TO TELL IF IT WILL HOLD
TOGETHER. BRIEF GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS MAY OCCUR. STILL ANTICIPATING
DRAINAGE PATTERNS TO SET UP BY MIDNIGHT. SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THOSE OBSERVED SATURDAY.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...ET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
644 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WILL COME TO AND END
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT...
DRIER AND COOLER AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. AFTER A COOL MONDAY MORNING MILDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT LATE TUE INTO WED. MORE SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED FRI AS LOW
PRESSURE HEADS E FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
645 PM UPDATE...
*** BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING ***
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH LIFTED N FROM LONG ISLAND HAS FRAGMENTED
A BIT BUT WAS STILL PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE INCH PER
HOUR LOCALLY. THIS WILL SHIFT INTO N CENTRAL MA AND S NH THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. OTHERWISE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI BEFORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND WEAK SURFACE LOW CROSS REGION EARLY TONIGHT. IT SHOULD REACH
JAFFREY...WORCESTER AND PROVIDENCE BY 10 PM AND MANCHESTER...
BOSTON AND CAPE COD CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT /A LITTLE BEHIND BACK EDGE
OF RAIN ON RADAR/.
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT MEANS PATCHY FOG/LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE...BUT DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY WIN
BATTLE OVERNIGHT AS SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR. W/NW WINDS MAY GUST UP TO
20-25 MPH BEFORE DAYBREAK.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HANDLES ALL OF THIS WELL SO ONLY MAKE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POP TO MATCH RADAR TRENDS. HRRR DOING A GOOD JOB
AND WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...
TYPICAL EARLY OCTOBER WEATHER WITH TEMPS IN THE U50S AND L60S
ALONG WITH A BRISK WNW WIND UP TO 20-25 MPH...THEN DIMINISHING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLUMN IS FAIRLY DRY AND CORE OF COLD AIR
ALOFT WELL TO THE WEST. THUS LAPSE RATES MODEST AT BEST SO NOT
MUCH DIURNAL CU/SCU EXPECTED. HENCE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
SUN NIGHT...
CHILLY NIGHT AND FOLLOWED THE COLDER MOS GUIDANCE INSTEAD OF A
MODEL BLEND. MAY NEED FROST ADVISORIES FOR WESTERN/NW MA INTO
SOUTHWEST NH. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AS SURFACE HIGH SLIPS
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WITH PGRAD RELAXING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* MILD MON AND TUE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
* SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED
* MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI
DETAILS...
CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH MOST
OF EXTENDED PERIOD...BEFORE SHIFTING N OF MARITIMES BY NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS KEEPS TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHEAST MUCH OF WEEK BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY WEEKEND.
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE HEADS OFFSHORE RESULTING IN MILDER S/SW FLOW
ACROSS REGION. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MIXING TO NEAR 850 MB SUPPORTS
HIGHS WELL INTO 60S AWAY FROM S COAST.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM GREAT LAKES TUE
AND CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED MORNING. BROAD S/SW FLOW IN
PLACE AHEAD OF FRONT WILL BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED...ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL. DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUDS TUE...HIGHS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO 60S AND LOWER 70S GIVEN
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. AIRMASS BEHIND FRONT IS NOT MUCH COOLER AND WITH
SUNSHINE/W FLOW HIGHS WED SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO REACH 60S TO AROUND
70 ACROSS MOST OF AREA.
THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WITH
DIMINISHING W FLOW. SHOULD STILL BE RATHER MILD WITH HIGHS IN 60S.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER OH VALLEY HEADS E AND
SHOULD CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI NIGHT BEFORE HEADING OFFSHORE
EARLY SAT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO MUCH OF
REGION...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS FOCUSED CLOSER TO S COAST FRI AND FRI
NIGHT. HOWEVER MODELS/ENSEMBLES HINT AT DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE CENTER ALONG FRONT S OF NEW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR MUCH OF PERIOD.
MONDAY...INCREASING S WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE NEAR SHORE
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. SEAS MAY REACH 5 FT ON OPEN S
COASTAL WATERS BY EVENING. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT MAINLY
NEAR S COAST.
TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAINTAINS S/SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KT AND 5-6 FT SEAS ON OPEN S COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE IN DAY AND AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS DURING DAY WITH WIND SHIFT TO
SW AND THEN W...POSSIBLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30KT DURING AFTERNOON.
SEAS BUILD FURTHER ON OPEN WATERS TO AS HIGH AS 7 FT.
THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS AND SEAS.ENGLAND SAT MORNING...WHICH WILL PROBABLY DELAY
CLEARING S OF MASS PIKE UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON OR EVENING. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS SAT AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING MORE FALL-
LIKE AIRMASS TO REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE SUN/SUN NIGHT.
IFR/LIFR PERSIST EARLY TONIGHT IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER...
MAINLY FROM SW NH INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MA AND RI. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO MVFR BEHIND BACK EDGE OF SHOWERS WHERE COLD FRONT IS
LOCATED...AND FURTHER IMPROVE TO VFR A FEW HOURS LATER. TIMING
BRINGS BACK EDGE TO ORH/PVD AROUND 00Z...MHT/BOS/HYA CLOSER TO
03-04Z. BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEST WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR LIKELY ALONG WITH DRY RUNWAYS. WEST
WINDS MAY GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING THE MORNING THEN DIMINISHING IN
THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET.
KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MARGINAL LLWS 22Z-02Z WITH WINDS
AT 2KFT 16040KT.
KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MARGINAL LLWS TIL 21Z WITH WINDS
AT 2 KFT 15040KT.
OUTLOOK...MON THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...VFR. S WINDS GUSTING TO 25KT. PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN FOG LATE
MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY...S WINDS GUSTING TO 25KT. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SHOWERS/
ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS INTERIOR LATE IN DAY...AND ACROSS MOST OF AREA
TUE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...MAINLY
EARLY. VFR WITH CLEARING BY AFTERNOON AND W WINDS GUSTING TO 25KT.
THURSDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT...
LEFTOVER EAST SWELLS EASTERN MA WATERS BUT DEVELOPING SE WIND
WAVES ALL WATERS. SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY RAIN THIS EVENING
THEN MOVING WELL OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED
TSTM SOUTHERN WATERS. SE WINDS BECOME WNW WITH THE WIND SHIFT AND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. VSBY IMPROVES WITH THE WIND SHIFT TOO.
SUNDAY...
WNW WINDS UP TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING DIMINISHES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.
SUN NIGHT...
LIGHT WINDS/GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF PERIOD.
MONDAY...INCREASING S WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE NEAR SHORE
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. SEAS MAY REACH 5 FT ON OPEN S
COASTAL WATERS BY EVENING. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT MAINLY
NEAR S COAST.
TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAINTAINS S/SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KT AND 5-6 FT SEAS ON OPEN S COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE IN DAY AND AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS DURING DAY WITH WIND SHIFT TO
SW AND THEN W...POSSIBLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30KT DURING AFTERNOON.
SEAS BUILD FURTHER ON OPEN WATERS TO AS HIGH AS 7 FT.
THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS AND SEAS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237-
251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/JWD
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/JWD
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...NOCERA/JWD
MARINE...NOCERA/JWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY
TONIGHT. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THEN GIVE WAY TO A COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND EXTENDING DOWN ACROSS CHESAPEAKE BAY.
MEANWHILE, A POTENT UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING. A SATELLITE LOOP OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LARGE-
SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFYING AND ACQUIRING A NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE MS
VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES REGION AS A VORT MAX DIGS AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.
OVERALL, NOT TOO MANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME WITH REGARDS
TO THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND SOME AREAS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL
PROGRESSING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WE DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS USING
THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO CAPTURE THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
OTHERWISE, MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK FOR TODAY BASED ON
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND THE EXPECTED INFLOW OF COOLER/DRIER AIR
LATER TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE, SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT MID
MORNING. USING THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE,
THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP WILL REACH THE WESTERN ZONES OF THE
CWA LATE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, ENDING NEAR PHILLY AROUND LATE MORNING TO
MIDDAY AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE NJ SHORE/PASSAIC RIVER DURING THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE
WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN ONE- HALF INCH. HOWEVER, HIRES GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW RAIN BAND TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST. A
BRIEF HEAVY SHOWER OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS BAND LATER THIS MORNING.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT
OF THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. THE POST-FRONTAL CAA SHOULD
OFFSET DAYTIME HEATING. ACCORDINGLY, TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON
SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO CURRENT READINGS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
LATE IN THE DAY WHEN MUCH COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT,
AND WITH A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH, THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FRONT WILL STILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A 999 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT IN NEW ENGLAND
AND 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
STRONG OVER OUR REGION.
SIGNIFICANT CAA WILL ALLOW NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER TO PREVENT
DECOUPLING AND FOR THE WESTERLY WIND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WILL LIKELY SEE COLD AIR STRATOCU OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE EVENING
UNTIL MUCH DRIER AIR REACHES THE AREA AND ERODES THE LINGERING
CLOUDS. THE 0C 850 MB TEMPS MAKES ITS TRIUMPHANT RETURN TO THE AREA
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 30S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST NJ AND
NORTHEAST PA. THESE AIR TEMPS WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST
FORMATION BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND WARM GROUND TEMPS WILL
MAKE THE SETUP FOR FROST UNFAVORABLE. MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA INCLUDING ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: WE WILL BE IN A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT DRY. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO START IN
THIS PERIOD WILL COMPLETE AN IMPRESSIVE PLUMMET AND THIS WILL
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH THE COOLEST DAY IN A WHILE. MANY
LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 FOR HIGHS. OVERALL THE 10/04 00Z
GFS LOOKS WAY TO COOL AS IT EXTENDS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO OUR
REGION. ON THE OTHER HAND THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS LOOK TO WARM. THE
LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WENT WARMER WITH TWO THIRDS EMPHASIS PLACED
ON THE MET AND ECMWF. TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH BOTH
SURFACE AND SOIL TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION EVEN WITH CALM WINDS ATTM
FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY (35-40)(40`S ELSEWHERE).IT SHOULD
BE POINTED OUT IF THE FORECAST TRENDS COOLER THEN THE FROST THREAT
WOULD INCREASE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: WE WILL SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNTIED STATES. THE RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE MAV/MET AND
10/04 00Z GFS LOOK TO COOL GIVEN MODELED 925 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND
11C WHICH WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOW 70`S FOR PHL SE AND COOLER
NW. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 20 MPH TO BE TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE DECAYING AS IT TRIES TO FIGHT OFF THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST
LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE.HOWEVER, INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE THREAT
FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL LIKELY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIGHTER
TEMPERATURES SPREAD AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE MAV/MET IN
THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT : THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE REGION RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECT ANOTHER
SEASONAL DAY. LOWS A BIT WARMER GIVEN MORNING CLOUDS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ON THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS LIKELY TO KEEP A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES FOR MOST OF THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WILL FINALLY KICK OUT IN THIS PERIOD, RESULTING IN A
WARMER MORE ZONAL PATTERN. HOWEVER ONE MORE COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO
APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. QUITE
A TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF 10/04 00Z RUNS. RIGHT
NOW PREFER THE 00Z ECMWF OVERALL BUT DID NOT GO AS WARM GIVEN THE
MODEL DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME SCT TO BKN
CIGS WITH BASES AROUND 4000 TO 5000FT WILL REMAIN THROUGH LATE-DAY,
BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND SKIES CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS, BEFORE DIMINISHING TO MOSTLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS
FOR LATE EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED MAINLY CLEAR. WESTERLY WINDS
IN THE 8 TO 12 KNOT RANGE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS
15-20 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CAUSE
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 10-15 KNOTS AT TIMES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. WEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS
WELL AS THE DELAWARE BAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE
BEEN GUSTING 20-25 KT SO FAR WHILE SEAS JUST OFFSHORE ARE 5-6 FT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER DE
BAY AND EARLY THIS AFTN IN THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. THESE WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KT, ESPECIALLY
THIS EVENING ONCE COLDER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES. THE WARMER WATER TEMPS
WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND AM CONCERNED
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING: WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SEAS AND
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING CLOSER TO SCA CRITERIA.
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOME INTERMITTENT 25 KNOT WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTH WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CAMBRIDED ENDED UP CRESTING AROUND 4.1 FEET, SO MODERATE FLOODING
IS NO LONGER EXPECTED AND THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING WAS
DOWNGRADED TO AN ADVISORY. THE ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN BAY
REMAINS AS DEPARTURES FOR TOLCHESTER CONTINUES TO DECREASE AND IT
LOOKS TO GET CLOSE TO THE MINOR FLOOD LEVEL. IF THEY END UP GOING
BACK UP, WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE WARNING BACK NORTHWARD.
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND TIDAL
DELAWARE RIVER WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
ALONG THE COAST, THE NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, WINDS SHOULD BE OFFSHORE IN A POST- FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT,
SO TOTAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
012.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...KLEIN/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN/KLINE
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ROBERTSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1241 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY
TONIGHT. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THEN GIVE WAY TO A COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND EXTENDING DOWN ACROSS CHESAPEAKE BAY.
MEANWHILE, A POTENT UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING. A SATELLITE LOOP OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LARGE-
SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFYING AND ACQUIRING A NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE MS
VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES REGION AS A VORT MAX DIGS AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.
OVERALL, NOT TOO MANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME WITH REGARDS
TO THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND SOME AREAS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL
PROGRESSING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WE DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS USING
THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO CAPTURE THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
OTHERWISE, MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK FOR TODAY BASED ON
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND THE EXPECTED INFLOW OF COOLER/DRIER AIR
LATER TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE, SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT MID
MORNING. USING THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE,
THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP WILL REACH THE WESTERN ZONES OF THE
CWA LATE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, ENDING NEAR PHILLY AROUND LATE MORNING TO
MIDDAY AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE NJ SHORE/PASSAIC RIVER DURING THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE
WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN ONE- HALF INCH. HOWEVER, HIRES GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW RAIN BAND TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST. A
BRIEF HEAVY SHOWER OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS BAND LATER THIS MORNING.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT
OF THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. THE POST-FRONTAL CAA SHOULD
OFFSET DAYTIME HEATING. ACCORDINGLY, TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON
SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO CURRENT READINGS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
LATE IN THE DAY WHEN MUCH COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT,
AND WITH A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH, THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FRONT WILL STILL BE MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A 999 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT IN NEW ENGLAND
AND 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
STRONG OVER OUR REGION.
SIGNIFICANT CAA WILL ALLOW NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER TO PREVENT
DECOUPLING AND FOR THE WESTERLY WIND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WILL LIKELY SEE COLD AIR STRATOCU OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE EVENING
UNTIL MUCH DRIER AIR REACHES THE AREA AND ERODES THE LINGERING
CLOUDS. THE 0C 850 MB TEMPS MAKES ITS TRIUMPHANT RETURN TO THE AREA
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 30S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST NJ AND
NORTHEAST PA. THESE AIR TEMPS WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST
FORMATION BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND WARM GROUND TEMPS WILL
MAKE THE SETUP FOR FROST UNFAVORABLE. MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA INCLUDING ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: WE WILL BE IN A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT DRY. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO START IN
THIS PERIOD WILL COMPLETE AN IMPRESSIVE PLUMMET AND THIS WILL
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH THE COOLEST DAY IN A WHILE. MANY
LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 FOR HIGHS. OVERALL THE 10/04 00Z
GFS LOOKS WAY TO COOL AS IT EXTENDS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO OUR
REGION. ON THE OTHER HAND THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS LOOK TO WARM. THE
LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WENT WARMER WITH TWO THIRDS EMPHASIS PLACED
ON THE MET AND ECMWF. TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST WARM ENOUGH BOTH
SURFACE AND SOIL TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION EVEN WITH CALM WINDS ATTM
FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY (35-40)(40`S ELSEWHERE).IT SHOULD
BE POINTED OUT IF THE FORECAST TRENDS COOLER THEN THE FROST THREAT
WOULD INCREASE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: WE WILL SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNTIED STATES. THE RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE MAV/MET AND
10/04 00Z GFS LOOK TO COOL GIVEN MODELED 925 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND
11C WHICH WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOW 70`S FOR PHL SE AND COOLER
NW. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 20 MPH TO BE TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE DECAYING AS IT TRIES TO FIGHT OFF THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST
LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE.HOWEVER, INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE THREAT
FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL LIKELY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIGHTER
TEMPERATURES SPREAD AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE MAV/MET IN
THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT : THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE REGION RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECT ANOTHER
SEASONAL DAY. LOWS A BIT WARMER GIVEN MORNING CLOUDS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ON THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS LIKELY TO KEEP A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES FOR MOST OF THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WILL FINALLY KICK OUT IN THIS PERIOD, RESULTING IN A
WARMER MORE ZONAL PATTERN. HOWEVER ONE MORE COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO
APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. QUITE
A TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF 10/04 00Z RUNS. RIGHT
NOW PREFER THE 00Z ECMWF OVERALL BUT DID NOT GO AS WARM GIVEN THE
MODEL DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS, ALONG WITH SHOWERS, WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE TERMINALS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU 13-15Z FOR THE PHILLY TERMINALS AND
15-17Z FOR ACY/MIV. THE FRONT WILL BE MARKED BY A WIND SHIFT FROM
S-SE TO W, AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS. WINDS
MAY BRIEFLY GUST 20-25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT.
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS STRONG CAA ARRIVES. W-NW WINDS WILL RELAX TO BELOW 10 KT
AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CAUSE
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 10-15 KNOTS AT TIMES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. WEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS
WELL AS THE DELAWARE BAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE
BEEN GUSTING 20-25 KT SO FAR WHILE SEAS JUST OFFSHORE ARE 5-6 FT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST LATE THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER DE
BAY AND EARLY THIS AFTN IN THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. THESE WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KT, ESPECIALLY
THIS EVENING ONCE COLDER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES. THE WARMER WATER TEMPS
WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND AM CONCERNED
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING: WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SEAS AND
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING CLOSER TO SCA CRITERIA.
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOME INTERMITTENT 25 KNOT WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTH WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CAMBRIDED ENDED UP CRESTING AROUND 4.1 FEET, SO MODERATE FLOODING
IS NO LONGER EXPECTED AND THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING WAS
DOWNGRADED TO AN ADVISORY. THE ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN BAY
REMAINS AS DEPARTURES FOR TOLCHESTER CONTINUES TO DECREASE AND IT
LOOKS TO GET CLOSE TO THE MINOR FLOOD LEVEL. IF THEY END UP GOING
BACK UP, WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE WARNING BACK NORTHWARD.
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND TIDAL
DELAWARE RIVER WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
ALONG THE COAST, THE NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, WINDS SHOULD BE OFFSHORE IN A POST- FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT,
SO TOTAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
012.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...KLEIN/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN/KLINE
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
140 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER FLOW WILL
THEN FLATTEN OUT AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN CLOSER TO
NORMAL...BUT SYSTEMS MOVING ALONG IN THE FLOW WILL KEEP THE THREAT
OF RAIN AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING SOME SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...BUT
DO NOT BE FOOLED. THE SUN IS DOING LITTLE TO WARM TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA ONLY IN THE LOW 40S AS
OF 1330Z.
AREA OF STRATOCU ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LOW ALREADY EXPANDING INTO THE NORTHERN WABASH
VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL ENABLE CLOUDS TO QUICKLY FILL BACK IN OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL ACCOMPANY THE
DISTURBANCE ALOFT AS WELL...FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH LATE DAY.
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES COMBINED WITH SUBTLE INSTABILITY
SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR ICE PELLETS TO MIX IN WITH LIGHT RAIN
OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES TODAY. CHANCES LOOK LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP
OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.
OTHER CHANGE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE IS TO LOWER HIGHS BY A COUPLE
DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. RAP SURFACE TEMPS AND CURRENT LAMP DATA
BOTH SUPPORT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAY STILL SEE TEMPS
TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S OVER THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY WHERE MORE
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. COULD BE A CLOSE CALL FOR THE DAILY RECORD LOW
MAX AT KIND...49 DEGREES FROM 1885. BRISK WESTERLY WINDS WILL
EXACERBATE THE RAW CONDITIONS ALL DAY.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED FOR MOST ITEMS.
MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS ONE UPPER IMPULSE
EXITS THE AREA BUT ANOTHER APPROACHES. WITH PERHAPS SOME WEAK LIFT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT IMPULSE INTERACTING WITH THIS MOISTURE EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT.
THE CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME WIND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
BOTTOMING OUT. THUS EXPECT READINGS TO STAY ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK...AND THE WINDS SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD FROST FROM FORMING. WILL
MENTION PATCHY FROST SINCE SOME COULD FORM IN SHELTERED AREAS...BUT
WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORY PRODUCTS FOR TONIGHT.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT A FEW IMPULSES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
UPPER TROUGH. THESE WILL INTERACT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES. WILL GO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
AT THE MOMENT THE IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST OF THESE WILL IMPACT THE
AREA MONDAY...SO WENT HIGHEST POPS THEN.
FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ON...MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM FOR HIGHS GIVEN
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET MOS FOR HIGHS.
FOR LOWS GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
ONTARIO ON TUESDAY AND TO JAMES BAY TUESDAY NIGHT. IT DOES...A
TROUGH WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND FORCE A COLD
FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH
A MOIST ATMOSPHERE TO TRIGGER SHOWERS THAT WILL BE ENDING TUESDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AFTER A DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES AND RESULT IN MORE SHOWER CHANCES BY THURSDAY.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
PER REGIONAL BLEND LOOK GOOD FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 04/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 104 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014
WIDESPREAD STRATOCU IS IMPACTING TAF SITES AS UPPER LOW ROTATES
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE AT VFR
CATEGORY AND WILL REMAIN THERE FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE FALLING NORTH AND EAST OF TAF SITES...BUT
TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SO...NO MENTION OF PRECIP IN TAFS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 14 TO 19 KTS...GUSTING TO 26 KTS.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF
6 TO 10 KTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TDUD
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1233 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 736 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014
RADAR TRENDS THE PAST 90 MINUTES SHOW A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION. RAP TRENDS INDICATE THE OVERALL FORCING WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING BRINGING AN EARLIER END TO
THE PRECIPITATION. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS/CO-OP REPORTS THE
PRECIPITATION IS MORE OF A MIX NOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014
MORE OBSERVATION SITES ARE REPORTING LIGHT SNOW...UNKNOWN PRECIP
OR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO
BETTER FIT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. RADAR DOES SHOW A POCKET OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF THE KCID AREA TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 453 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014
LIGHT SNOW IS NOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. A
FEW FLAKES OF SNOW HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT THE OFFICE SO THE RADAR
RETURNS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE METRO AREA MINIMALLY HAVE
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS SEVERAL WEAK TROFS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MIDWEST WITH 40S AND HIGHER FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014
RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN THAT WAS MOVING INTO NORTHEAST
IOWA. SEVERAL SITES INDICATE PURE SNOW FALLING WITH THE NEAREST SITE
BEING KDEH.
THE FORCING SUPPORTING THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA IN
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND OVERSPREAD ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN END
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID DAY.
THE DRYNESS OF THE OVERALL AIR WILL COOL THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS COOLING WILL RESULT IN A
RAIN/SNOW MIX THAN CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S SO ANY SNOW WILL MELT ON CONTACT.
AIR TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO ABOVE FREEZING SO NO ACCUMULATION WILL BE
SEEN ON ELEVATED SURFACES.
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE AFTER SUNRISE AND SLOW MIX WITH
AND CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN BEFORE ENDING AROUND MID DAY. CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH ONLY
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLD TEMPERATURES
AND LIGHTER WINDS DO BRING UP THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST LATE
TONIGHT FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-80.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014
MOST OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW MEANDERING ABOUT WESTERN ONTARIO PROVINCE THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD... WITH A FEW BOUTS OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE SHUTTLED DOWN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW. TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES AND SUBSEQUENT PCPN CHANCES
REMAINS ONE OF THE BIGGEST CHALLENGES GIVEN POOR MODEL CONSISTENCY.
BLENDED APPROACH HIGHLIGHTS MONDAY AND LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS MAIN WINDOWS OF ANY RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN NORTHWEST FLOW
ANY RAIN AMOUNTS MOSTLY SPOTTY AND LIGHT. THE QUESTION TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK IS EVENTUAL TRACK OF HURRICANE SIMON REMNANTS AND
WHETHER OR NOT THEY INTERACT WITH FRONTAL ZONE TO BRING BETTER RAIN
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE LIFTING ABOVE MVFR LEVELS AS OF 18Z
TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT TONIGHT. WHILE THE AIR WILL BE COLD...WE WILL SEE WINDS
SLOWLY DECREASE UNDER 10 KTS BY SUNSET TONIGHT...WITH A GENERAL
BACKING TO WEST EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE SOUTH OF
IOWA. AFTER 06Z/05 WIDESPREAD MID CLOUDS ABOVE 8000 FT WILL SPREAD
IN FROM THE WEST AS WARM AIR BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ANY TIME DURING
THE PERIOD.
ERVIN
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...ERVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1205 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2014
Another chilly fall day expected with well below average temperatures
and gusty WNW winds as the region remains locked in deep cyclonic
flow. Probably the biggest item of concern is the amount of cloud
cover today. Current trajectory of the thicker stratus across
eastern MN/northeast IA would be across northern/central Illinois.
Model low level RH progs suggest some diurnal cu across the
northeast quarter of the CWA, with the RAP more agressive with
both coverage and also bringing the cu further southeast into
eastern MO. I have given some weight to the RAP and have bumped up
the sky coverage from the previous forecast.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2014
A cold night on tap as the weak surface ridge now centered through
the high Plains slides across the area and results in gradually
backing surface winds. Warm advection aloft will get underway and
there will be an increase in mid/high clouds overnight in advance
of the next upstream NW flow disturbance. Just how low the
temperatures get tonight will be strongly based on the arrival of
the clouds. The main thrust of these looks through central and
northeast MO, while southern sections of the CWA will remain void
of clouds longer. I have mentioned patchy frost across the eastern
Ozarks into portions of southwest IL with this in mind, and due to
topography-drainage and lighter winds where I have mins in the mid
30s.
Sunday into Tuesday the forecast is a bit tricky thanks to a series
of NW flow disturbances traversing the region and associated weak
surface boundaries. The first of these on Sunday is accompanied by
a weak surface low/trof and trailing cold front with good low
level warm advection ahead of it. High temperatures should be
quite a bit warmer as a result. Some of the guidance is generating
light and spotty QPF with the ECMWF the most agressive. After
collaboration with neighboring offices, will hold off introducing
any pops and let the next shift get a fresher look. This initial
boundary then washes out with yet another disturbance and front
forecast to impact the area late Sunday night and into Monday.
This system will have a bit better moisture (albiet still limited) and
steep lapse rates to yield weak instability, thus I have added the
mention of thunder across the southeast half of the CWA on Monday
afternoon. Tuesday looks largely dry and warmer with average to
above average temperatures continuing into Thursday. Confidence in
the forecast diminishes Thursday into Friday with the GFS and
ECMWF and ensemble members exhibiting some rather large
differences.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2014
Looking at satellite loops it appears that the wrap around
stratocumulus cloud mass centered over the Great Lakes region will
remain northeast of the taf sites this afternoon, although there
is scattered diurnal cumulus clouds over our area. These clouds
should dissipate early this evening with loss of daytime heating.
The strong and gusty w-nwly surface winds will also diminish early
this evening and back around to a s-swly direction as the surface
pressure gradient relaxes and the surface high centered over
eastern TX and LA shifts eastward. Mid level cloudiness will
advect southeastward into the taf sites late tonight in an area of
warm air advection ahead of a weak northwest flow upper level
disturbance.
Specifics for KSTL: Just some scattered diurnal cumulus clouds
this afternoon at 4000-6000 feet, then mid level clouds will move
through STL late tonight and Sunday morning. Strong and gusty
w-nwly surface winds will diminish early this evening and back
around to a southwest direction this evening, and a southerly
direction by early Sunday morning. The surface wind will veer
around to a w-swly direction by late Sunday afternoon after the
passage of a weak surface trough.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX