Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/03/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1054 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT TO INCLUDE A FEW OF THE
LOWER VALLEYS...INCLUDING DURANGO...PAGOSA SPRINGS...THE I-70
CORRIDOR FROM DEBEQUE TO EAGLE AND ACROSS THE EASTERN UINTA BASIN
IN NORTHEAST UTAH. NEW MET GUIDANCE COMING IN A FEW DEGREES COLDER
IN MANY AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE NEED FOR FREEZE WARNINGS
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST AS WELL THIS MORNING...NOW IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL ZONES
WITH A BREAK ARRIVING BEHIND THIS INITIAL WAVE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 743 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND
IN COVERAGE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO
THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. SOME SNOW FALLING ABOVE THE 10K MARK
BASED ON WEBCAMS AND CDOT REPORTS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS NOTED
ON VAIL PASS. AS THE FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 9K...WHICH IS HANDLED
IN CURRENT WINTER HIGHLIGHTS. WILL ALSO EVALUATE THE NEED TO
EXPAND THE FREEZE WATCHES INTO OTHER VALLEY LOCATIONS AS NEW
MODEL DATA ARRIVES LATER THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
NEXT DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE HAS SPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND THE SURFACE FRONT CUTTING ACROSS NE UTAH HAS
ALLOWED PCPN AND STORMS TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE TAVAPUTS AND ROAN
PLATEAU. THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAMDNG25 HAVE
DEPICTED THIS TREND. ADJUSTED GRIDDED PCPN FORECAST TO REFLECT
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT FREQUENT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THIS
AREA. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS NW
COLORADO WITH THE SRN TAIL REACHING THE WRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS MORNING (WITH DRYING TREND ACROSS ERN UTAH). THE RAP
MODEL DOES NOT SHOW MUCH CAPE...BUT THE MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
HAS STEEPEN LAPSE RATES THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE WET BULB ZERO
LINE DROPS BELOW 10K FEET WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SO THE
IDEA THAT THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 9K FEET
SEEMS REASONABLE. MODELS SHOW DECENT QPF VALUES FOR THE NWRN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS...GRAND MESA...ELKS/WEST ELKS AND MONARCH...HENCE
HAVE ELECTED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 9K FEET
FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
THIS EVENING THE NEW COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR THROUGH THE
REGION. THE -21C COLD CORE PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COLORADO ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED IN THE
NEW AIR MASS ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE COLD ADVECTION IS STRONGEST ACROSS NW COLORADO THAT WILL
EFFICIENTLY WRING OUT ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE. LIGHT SNOW MAY
PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ALL BUT THE LOWEST VALLEY ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE
LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL FASTER THAN
THE TEMPERATURES FOR LITTLE THREAT OF FOG...THOUGH SOME RIVER FOG
MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THURSDAY IN A DRY NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND NW GRADIENT WINDS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST KEEPING THE
REGION IN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA AND THE MAIN
WESTERLIES WELL NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF COLORADO. DRY AND STABLE AIR
MASS MEANS DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE WESTERLIES
RETREAT NORTHWARD...A SLOW WARMING TREND ALLOWS TEMPS TO CLIMB
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1053 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY WORKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH AND
COLORADO LATE THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION...BOTH LIQUID AND
FROZEN...IS FOCUSING ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FEATURE. AS A RESULT
IFR TO MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED AND AREA FLIGHT
TERMINALS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT THE
KASE AND KEGE TERMINALS THROUGH 20Z. AFTER 20Z VFR SHOULD BE
PREVAILING AT THE FLIGHT TERMINALS WITH TEMPORARY LOWERED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE EVENING BEFORE THE BULK OF THIS SYSTEM
MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS LIKELY OVER THE
HIGHER DIVIDE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
COZ001-002-005-007-008-014-022-023.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ004-
009-010-012-013-018.
UT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
UTZ024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ023.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
950 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT TO INCLUDE A FEW OF THE
LOWER VALLEYS...INCLUDING DURANGO...PAGOSA SPRINGS...THE I-70
CORRIDOR FROM DEBEQUE TO EAGLE AND ACROSS THE EASTERN UINTA BASIN
IN NORTHEAST UTAH. NEW MET GUIDANCE COMING IN A FEW DEGREES COLDER
IN MANY AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE NEED FOR FREEZE WARNINGS
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST AS WELL THIS MORNING...NOW IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL ZONES
WITH A BREAK ARRIVING BEHIND THIS INITIAL WAVE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 743 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND
IN COVERAGE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO
THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. SOME SNOW FALLING ABOVE THE 10K MARK
BASED ON WEBCAMS AND CDOT REPORTS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS NOTED
ON VAIL PASS. AS THE FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 9K...WHICH IS HANDLED
IN CURRENT WINTER HIGHLIGHTS. WILL ALSO EVALUATE THE NEED TO
EXPAND THE FREEZE WATCHES INTO OTHER VALLEY LOCATIONS AS NEW
MODEL DATA ARRIVES LATER THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
NEXT DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE HAS SPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND THE SURFACE FRONT CUTTING ACROSS NE UTAH HAS
ALLOWED PCPN AND STORMS TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE TAVAPUTS AND ROAN
PLATEAU. THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAMDNG25 HAVE
DEPICTED THIS TREND. ADJUSTED GRIDDED PCPN FORECAST TO REFLECT
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT FREQUENT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THIS
AREA. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS NW
COLORADO WITH THE SRN TAIL REACHING THE WRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS MORNING (WITH DRYING TREND ACROSS ERN UTAH). THE RAP
MODEL DOES NOT SHOW MUCH CAPE...BUT THE MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
HAS STEEPEN LAPSE RATES THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE WET BULB ZERO
LINE DROPS BELOW 10K FEET WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SO THE
IDEA THAT THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 9K FEET
SEEMS REASONABLE. MODELS SHOW DECENT QPF VALUES FOR THE NWRN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS...GRAND MESA...ELKS/WEST ELKS AND MONARCH...HENCE
HAVE ELECTED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 9K FEET
FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
THIS EVENING THE NEW COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR THROUGH THE
REGION. THE -21C COLD CORE PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COLORADO ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED IN THE
NEW AIR MASS ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE COLD ADVECTION IS STRONGEST ACROSS NW COLORADO THAT WILL
EFFICIENTLY WRING OUT ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE. LIGHT SNOW MAY
PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ALL BUT THE LOWEST VALLEY ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE
LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL FASTER THAN
THE TEMPERATURES FOR LITTLE THREAT OF FOG...THOUGH SOME RIVER FOG
MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THURSDAY IN A DRY NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND NW GRADIENT WINDS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST KEEPING THE
REGION IN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA AND THE MAIN
WESTERLIES WELL NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF COLORADO. DRY AND STABLE AIR
MASS MEANS DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE WESTERLIES
RETREAT NORTHWARD...A SLOW WARMING TREND ALLOWS TEMPS TO CLIMB
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z. NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR 09-15Z MTNS WILL OBSCURED AT TIMES IN LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. KVEL KCAG KHDN KSBS ALL WILL SEE PERIODS OF VSBY
BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 AFTER 09Z. FOR KCNY KGJT KMTJ KTEX KRIL KASE
KEGE EXPECT DETERIORATING CIGS AFTER 15Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AFT
18Z OF VSBY BLO 5SM CIGS BLO 040 IN -SHRA/-TSRA. KTEX KEGE KASE
COULD ALL SEE PERIODS OF IFR VSBY BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 IN
-SHSN/-TSSN AFTER 21Z. KDRO WILL REMAIN VFR EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS 18-23Z.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
COZ001-002-005-007-008-014-022-023.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ004-
009-010-012-013-018.
UT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
UTZ024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ023.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...JOE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
748 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 743 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND
IN COVERAGE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO
THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. SOME SNOW FALLING ABOVE THE 10K MARK
BASED ON WEBCAMS AND CDOT REPORTS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS NOTED
ON VAIL PASS. AS THE FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 9K...WHICH IS HANDLED
IN CURRENT WINTER HIGHLIGHTS. WILL ALSO EVALUATE THE NEED TO
EXPAND THE FREEZE WATCHES INTO OTHER VALLEY LOCATIONS AS NEW
MODEL DATA ARRIVES LATER THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
NEXT DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE HAS SPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND THE SURFACE FRONT CUTTING ACROSS NE UTAH HAS
ALLOWED PCPN AND STORMS TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE TAVAPUTS AND ROAN
PLATEAU. THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAMDNG25 HAVE
DEPICTED THIS TREND. ADJUSTED GRIDDED PCPN FORECAST TO REFLECT
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT FREQUENT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THIS
AREA. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS NW
COLORADO WITH THE SRN TAIL REACHING THE WRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS MORNING (WITH DRYING TREND ACROSS ERN UTAH). THE RAP
MODEL DOES NOT SHOW MUCH CAPE...BUT THE MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
HAS STEEPEN LAPSE RATES THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE WET BULB ZERO
LINE DROPS BELOW 10K FEET WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SO THE
IDEA THAT THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 9K FEET
SEEMS REASONABLE. MODELS SHOW DECENT QPF VALUES FOR THE NWRN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS...GRAND MESA...ELKS/WEST ELKS AND MONARCH...HENCE
HAVE ELECTED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 9K FEET
FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
THIS EVENING THE NEW COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR THROUGH THE
REGION. THE -21C COLD CORE PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COLORADO ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED IN THE
NEW AIR MASS ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE COLD ADVECTION IS STRONGEST ACROSS NW COLORADO THAT WILL
EFFICIENTLY WRING OUT ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE. LIGHT SNOW MAY
PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ALL BUT THE LOWEST VALLEY ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE
LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL FASTER THAN
THE TEMPERATURES FOR LITTLE THREAT OF FOG...THOUGH SOME RIVER FOG
MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THURSDAY IN A DRY NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND NW GRADIENT WINDS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST KEEPING THE
REGION IN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA AND THE MAIN
WESTERLIES WELL NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF COLORADO. DRY AND STABLE AIR
MASS MEANS DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE WESTERLIES
RETREAT NORTHWARD...A SLOW WARMING TREND ALLOWS TEMPS TO CLIMB
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z. NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR 09-15Z MTNS WILL OBSCURED AT TIMES IN LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. KVEL KCAG KHDN KSBS ALL WILL SEE PERIODS OF VSBY
BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 AFTER 09Z. FOR KCNY KGJT KMTJ KTEX KRIL KASE
KEGE EXPECT DETERIORATING CIGS AFTER 15Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AFT
18Z OF VSBY BLO 5SM CIGS BLO 040 IN -SHRA/-TSRA. KTEX KEGE KASE
COULD ALL SEE PERIODS OF IFR VSBY BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 IN
-SHSN/-TSSN AFTER 21Z. KDRO WILL REMAIN VFR EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS 18-23Z.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
COZ001-002-005-014.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ004-
009-010-012-013-018.
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ023.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...JOE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
NEXT DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE HAS SPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND THE SURFACE FRONT CUTTING ACROSS NE UTAH HAS
ALLOWED PCPN AND STORMS TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE TAVAPUTS AND ROAN
PLATEAU. THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAMDNG25 HAVE
DEPICTED THIS TREND. ADJUSTED GRIDDED PCPN FORECAST TO REFLECT
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT FREQUENT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THIS
AREA. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS NW
COLORADO WITH THE SRN TAIL REACHING THE WRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS MORNING (WITH DRYING TREND ACROSS ERN UTAH). THE RAP
MODEL DOES NOT SHOW MUCH CAPE...BUT THE MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
HAS STEEPEN LAPSE RATES THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE WET BULB ZERO
LINE DROPS BELOW 10K FEET WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SO THE
IDEA THAT THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 9K FEET
SEEMS REASONABLE. MODELS SHOW DECENT QPF VALUES FOR THE NWRN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS...GRAND MESA...ELKS/WEST ELKS AND MONARCH...HENCE
HAVE ELECTED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 9K FEET
FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
THIS EVENING THE NEW COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR THROUGH THE
REGION. THE -21C COLD CORE PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COLORADO ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED IN THE
NEW AIR MASS ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE COLD ADVECTION IS STRONGEST ACROSS NW COLORADO THAT WILL
EFFICIENTLY WRING OUT ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE. LIGHT SNOW MAY
PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ALL BUT THE LOWEST VALLEY ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE
LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL FASTER THAN
THE TEMPERATURES FOR LITTLE THREAT OF FOG...THOUGH SOME RIVER FOG
MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THURSDAY IN A DRY NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND NW GRADIENT WINDS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST KEEPING THE
REGION IN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA AND THE MAIN
WESTERLIES WELL NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF COLORADO. DRY AND STABLE AIR
MASS MEANS DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE WESTERLIES
RETREAT NORTHWARD...A SLOW WARMING TREND ALLOWS TEMPS TO CLIMB
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z. NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR 09-15Z MTNS WILL OBSCURED AT TIMES IN LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. KVEL KCAG KHDN KSBS ALL WILL SEE PERIODS OF VSBY
BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 AFTER 09Z. FOR KCNY KGJT KMTJ KTEX KRIL KASE
KEGE EXPECT DETERIORATING CIGS AFTER 15Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AFT
18Z OF VSBY BLO 5SM CIGS BLO 040 IN -SHRA/-TSRA. KTEX KEGE KASE
COULD ALL SEE PERIODS OF IFR VSBY BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 IN
-SHSN/-TSSN AFTER 21Z. KDRO WILL REMAIN VFR EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS 18-23Z.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
COZ001-002-005-014.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT MDT
TONIGHT FOR COZ004-009-010-012-013-018.
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ023.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...JOE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1115 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AT THE PRESENT TIME. THE
RAP AND HRRR MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING A ROUND TO SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL
MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE SAN JUANS
AND NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS.
OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AFTER PASSAGE OF
THE SHORT WAVE...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN TO THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S. WILL KEEP THE FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT THAT HAS
BEEN IN EFFECT GOING OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO...BUT THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE
REGION COULD ALSO PICKUP ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES AROUND WHERE
THEY WERE TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
THE FINAL SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE STATE AFTER THAT. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING AND WARMING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WEATHER WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
EVENTUALLY WARMING TO ALMOST 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1115 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ069>071.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
726 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE...ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 636 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN PA AND IS MOVING EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW JERSEY. CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS PICKING UP MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER NEW ENGLAND. THESE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHWEST WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ARE STARTING TO REACH INTO EASTERN
NY...INCLUDING PARTS OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE 08Z 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE AND LATEST RUN OF OUR LOCAL HIRES WRF
SHOW THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY OUR EASTERN
ZONES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT WILL BE NOTICEABLE
DUE TO THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING PROBABLY WON/T MAKE IT ANY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN
THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE AND SFC OBS
SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF STRATUS AS WELL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EASTWARD TO OUR SOUTH
TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...KEEPING THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE.
WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...HAVE SIDED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY
AREAS /UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO OUR EAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ONCE THE CLOUDS FINALLY START TO THIN OUT...ESP FOR ANY
AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S.
MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF CAPE COD...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT 500 HPA. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70
FOR VALLEY AREAS.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH 40S IN MOST AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY DUE TO 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 TO 11 DEGREES
C AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN SETTING UP WITH A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS AS A
LEADING UPPER IMPULSE TRACKS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MEAN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH. THE UPPER IMPULSE GOES
NEGATIVE TILT AND THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL FORCING...IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. COOLING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT..ALONG WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD RESULT IN RATHER
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS INTO THROUGH SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SUNDAY WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE A
PERIOD OF RELATIVE CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN
MOST OTHER AREAS.
ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AROUND TH SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR OVER
OUR REGION AROUND THE MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ONCE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE REGION...MORE PROXIMATE TO THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S SATURDAY...BUT COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THEN...HIGHS AROUND 60 TO MID 60S THROUGH MONDAY...50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST...MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN WILL SLOWLY BUILD WEST AND NORTHWEST. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BUILT
WEST INTO THE REGION...AND BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS...THE
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. VISIBILITIES WILL
BE VFR...MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR IF SOME VERY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AFFECTS
THE REGION...WITH VCSH AT KALB...KPSF AND KPOU WHERE PATCHY VERY
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME PERIODS OF VFR CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL...WHERE THE LEAST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE. VCSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KPSF AND KPOU.
BY EVENING...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD
CONTINUE MAINLY VFR.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS BY THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP
TO 65 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. RH
VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH FOG AND DEW
FORMATION AND NEARLY CALM WINDS.
CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING TO AROUND 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY DUE TO A LACK OF
RECENT RAINFALL.
A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
636 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE...ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 636 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN PA AND IS MOVING EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW JERSEY. CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS PICKING UP MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER NEW ENGLAND. THESE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHWEST WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ARE STARTING TO REACH INTO EASTERN
NY...INCLUDING PARTS OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE 08Z 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE AND LATEST RUN OF OUR LOCAL HIRES WRF
SHOW THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY OUR EASTERN
ZONES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT WILL BE NOTICEABLE
DUE TO THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING PROBABLY WON/T MAKE IT ANY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN
THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE AND SFC OBS
SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF STRATUS AS WELL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EASTWARD TO OUR SOUTH
TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...KEEPING THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE.
WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...HAVE SIDED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY
AREAS /UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO OUR EAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ONCE THE CLOUDS FINALLY START TO THIN OUT...ESP FOR ANY
AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S.
MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF CAPE COD...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT 500 HPA. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70
FOR VALLEY AREAS.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH 40S IN MOST AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY DUE TO 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 TO 11 DEGREES
C AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN SETTING UP WITH A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS AS A
LEADING UPPER IMPULSE TRACKS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MEAN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH. THE UPPER IMPULSE GOES
NEGATIVE TILT AND THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL FORCING...IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. COOLING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT..ALONG WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD RESULT IN RATHER
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS INTO THROUGH SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SUNDAY WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE A
PERIOD OF RELATIVE CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN
MOST OTHER AREAS.
ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AROUND TH SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR OVER
OUR REGION AROUND THE MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ONCE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE REGION...MORE PROXIMATE TO THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S SATURDAY...BUT COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THEN...HIGHS AROUND 60 TO MID 60S THROUGH MONDAY...50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST...MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BUILD WEST AND NORTHWEST. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE
BUILT WEST INTO THE REGION...AND BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR
TRENDS...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR...MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR IF AN ISOLATED SHOWER
AFFECTS THE REGION...WITH VCSH ONLY AT KPSF AND KPOU WHERE ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER COULD BE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME PERIODS OF VFR CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL...WHERE THE LEAST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE. VCSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KPSF AND KPOU.
BY EVENING...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD
CONTINUE MAINLY VFR.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS BY THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP
TO 65 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. RH
VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH FOG AND DEW
FORMATION AND NEARLY CALM WINDS.
CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING TO AROUND 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY DUE TO A LACK OF
RECENT RAINFALL.
A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
426 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE...ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 426 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL PA AND IS MOVING EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW JERSEY.
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS PICKING UP MOISTURE OFF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER NEW ENGLAND. THESE
SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHWEST WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ARE MOVING ACROSS SRN VT/BERKSHIRES AND INTO
THE TACONICS THIS MORNING.
THE LATEST 06Z 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE AND THE 06Z RUN OF OUR LOCAL
HIRESWRF ALL SHOW THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AND AFFECT OUR EASTERN ZONES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT...BUT WILL BE NOTICEABLE DUE TO THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY
WEATHER. THE RAIN SHOWERS MAKE MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS THE CAPITAL
REGION/HUDSON VALLEY REGION...BUT MOST AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF
THERE WILL STAY DRY TODAY. ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS MAY AFFECT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE AND SFC OBS
SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF STRATUS AS WELL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EASTWARD TO OUR SOUTH TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...KEEPING THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE.
WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...HAVE SIDED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY
AREAS /UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO OUR EAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ONCE THE CLOUDS FINALLY START TO THIN OUT...ESP FOR ANY
AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S.
MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF CAPE COD...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT 500 HPA. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70
FOR VALLEY AREAS.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH 40S IN MOST AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY DUE TO 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 TO 11 DEGREES
C AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN SETTING UP WITH A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS AS A
LEADING UPPER IMPULSE TRACKS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MEAN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH. THE UPPER IMPULSE GOES
NEGATIVE TILT AND THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL FORCING...IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. COOLING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT..ALONG WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD RESULT IN RATHER
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS INTO THROUGH SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SUNDAY WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE A
PERIOD OF RELATIVE CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN
MOST OTHER AREAS.
ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AROUND TH SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR OVER
OUR REGION AROUND THE MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ONCE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE REGION...MORE PROXIMATE TO THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S SATURDAY...BUT COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THEN...HIGHS AROUND 60 TO MID 60S THROUGH MONDAY...50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST...MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BUILD WEST AND NORTHWEST. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE
BUILT WEST INTO THE REGION...AND BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR
TRENDS...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR...MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR IF AN ISOLATED SHOWER
AFFECTS THE REGION...WITH VCSH ONLY AT KPSF AND KPOU WHERE ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER COULD BE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME PERIODS OF VFR CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL...WHERE THE LEAST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE. VCSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KPSF AND KPOU.
BY EVENING...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD
CONTINUE MAINLY VFR.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS BY THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP
TO 65 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. RH
VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH FOG AND DEW
FORMATION AND NEARLY CALM WINDS.
CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING TO AROUND 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY DUE TO A LACK OF
RECENT RAINFALL.
A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
155 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014
CURRENT-TONIGHT...WEST TO EAST FLOW ABOVE 3000 TO 4000 FEET PUSHING
INCREASING STRATOCUMULUS...STRATUS AND RAIN TOWARD THE EAST COAST.
THE MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM TAMPA AND CAPE CANAVERAL SHOWING AN
INVERSION AROUND 16000 FEET AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS ABOVE THAT
LEVEL. EXPECT LOW TOPPED STORMS IF ANY DO DEVELOP AND WITH 500MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE -4 TO -5 CELSIUS RANGE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES 1.08 TO 2 INCHES EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS. THE LATEST RUC RUN AND THE 12Z GFS RUN WERE
INDICATING THAT THE MID LEVEL FLOW WAS FLATTENING AND BECOMING
PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. WITH THE LACK OF ANY REAL
SOUTHWARD PUSH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD ONLY MOVE A LITTLE NORTH
OR SOUTH OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY TOWARD SUNRISE. LOWS IN THE LOW AND MID 70S.
THU-FRI...GFS SUGGESTING THAT THE BOUNDARY FINALLY CLEARS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA THU AND REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRI. GFS
TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTION PROG IS SHOWING THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE
DECREASES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND BEST MOISTURE REMAINS 5000
FEET AND BELOW WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW. MAV MOS POP LOOK TOO LOW. THE
MET MOS POP A LITTLE MORE REALISTIC.
PREVIOUS ZONES EXTENDED DISCUSSION
WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FIRST COOL FRONT OF THE
SEASON WILL PUSH THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND BRING A NOTICEABLE AIR
MASS CHANGE. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT ESPECIALLY FROM ORLANDO SOUTHWARD SAT AFTN. THE FAST MOVING
STORMS SHOULD NOT PRODUCE MUCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATION BUT COULD
CONTAIN STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. N/NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING LOWER HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTH LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES...60S ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY LOOKS QUITE REFRESHING WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S
WITH NORTH WINDS 10 MPH...A LITTLE STRONGER ALONG THE COAST.
MON-TUE...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE FL STRAITS AND
NW BAHAMAS. DO NOT HAVE ANY MENTIONABLE POPS EITHER DAY BUT SOME
REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE MAY RETURN NORTHWARD BY TUE AND BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING MVFR IN/NEAR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 02/03Z THEN VFR TIL 08Z. MVFR TEMPO IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INTER IR 08Z-13Z...VFR TO 18Z.
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
WILL MONITOR TAF SITES...ESP NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
FOR EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS...WHICH WILL BURN OFF
THRU MID/LATE MORNING...SHOULD ANY DEVELOP. LIGHT EARLY MORNING
WINDS WILL BECOME AN ONSHORE COMPONENT IN THE AFTERNOON. DEEP
MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ESP SOUTHWARD FROM NEAR
KSFB/KMCO...SO SCT-NMRS AFTN SHRA WITH ISOLD-SCT TSRA AGAIN
POSSIBLE. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SOUTH OF KMCO TODAY
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER PCPN CHANCES WILL RESIDE.
LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS STILL MAIN AVIATION THREATS.
BRIEF IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN/AROUND CONVECTION. CELL DIRECTION
WILL BE MAINLY FROM WEST TO EAST. ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN WIND DOWN
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
CURRENT-TONIGHT....BUOYS RECORDING WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND 1 TO 3
FOOT SEAS. STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO AROUND THE DAYTONA AREA THEN DROPS
DOWN TO AROUND MELBOURNE THEN EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A COOL
FRONT. DEPENDING ON WHICH SIDE OF THE FRONT ONE IS LOCATED WINDS
EITHER BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ON THE NORTH SIDE OR THE WEST IF
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. VARIABLE 5 TO 10 KNOTS A GOOD CALL FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST TO EAST STEERING FLOW WILL
PUSH SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE MAINLAND AND ONTO THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THU-FRI...MUCH DEPENDS ON WHETHER THE BOUNDARY DOES CLEAR EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST DOES TAKE PLACE. SEAS REMAIN 3 FEET OR BELOW AND WINDS 10
TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS DEPENDING WHERE THE BOUNDARY RESTS.
WEEKEND...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS SAT
WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHING EAST AND OFFSHORE DURING
THE AFTN...SOME OF WHICH SHOULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE AROUND 15 KNOTS SAT AFTN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND OVERSPREAD ALL THE WATERS SAT NIGHT
AND CONTINUE SUNDAY. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE.
BOATING CONDITIONS LOOK UNFAVORABLE ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM
WHERE CAUTION HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SHINGLE CREEK BASIN ON MON CAUSED THE CREEK
AT CAMPBELL TO RISE TO ACTION STAGE LAST EVENING. LATEST GAUGE
INFORMATION SUGGESTS THE CREEK HAS LEVELED OFF ABOVE ACTION STAGE.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
BASIN COULD RESULT IN FURTHER RISES LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR REMAINS SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND MINOR FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. RIVER LEVELS ALSO RISING NEAR DELAND AND LAKE HARNEY AND
THESE SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH ACTION STAGE LATER THIS WEEK.
IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL SETS UP OVER OR UPSTREAM FROM THESE
AREAS...THERE WILL BE FURTHER AGGRAVATION OVER THE BASIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 72 88 72 89 / 30 30 20 40
MCO 72 91 72 91 / 20 40 10 40
MLB 73 87 72 89 / 30 30 20 40
VRB 71 89 71 90 / 30 40 20 40
LEE 72 90 72 91 / 20 40 10 40
SFB 72 90 72 91 / 20 30 10 40
ORL 74 90 73 90 / 20 40 10 40
FPR 71 88 70 89 / 30 40 20 40
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
IMPACT WX...LASCODY
HYDRO.......GLITTO
FORECASTS...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
940 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE 12Z
TALLAHASSEE...JACKSONVILLE AND TAMPA MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY
AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. CAPE CANAVERAL THE EXCEPTION WHERE
THE DRIER AIR IS STARTING TO FILTER IN WITH A NOTICEABLE DRIER TREND
ABOVE 15000 FEET MOVING IN. THE TAMPA...CAPE AND MIAMI SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WHICH IS UNDERSTANDABLE SINCE THEY
ARE STILL AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARY. THE TALLAHASSEE
AND JACKSONVILLE SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING WESTERLIES ABOVE ROUGHLY 2500
FEET. THE THREE SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WERE INDICATING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.8 INCHES OR HIGHER. FIRST COUPLE OF
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES FROM
NORTHERN OSCEOLA AND BREVARD NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE
SOUTH AND AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARY. LASTLY BOTH THE
CURRENT RUC UPDATE RUN AND 06Z GFS SHOW VORTICITY MAXES MOVING
OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY.
DAYTIME HEATING LOOKS TO BE LIMITED OVER THE NORTH BUT BETTER TO THE
SOUTH WHERE THE MOISTURE RESIDES. GFS SHOWING A FLATTER MID
LEVEL/500MB FLOW WHICH WOULD INDICATE SLOWER BOUNDARY MOVEMENT TO
THE SOUTH.
AFTERNOON FORECAST OF 50 POP NORTH AND 60 POP SOUTH LOOKS REASONABLE
BASED ON MORE MOISTURE...BETTER DAYTIME HEATING INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND A VORTICITY MAX MOVING OVERHEAD DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UPDATES TO THE WIND FIELDS.
PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION
CURRENT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES EAST-WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO
SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
BEING OBSERVED NORTH OF THIS FEATURE WITH LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS SOUTH OF IT. MILD AND MUGGY TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT READINGS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S ARE BEING REALIZED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.
TODAY-TONIGHT...WITH THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...
AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WEAK MID-LEVEL ENERGY ALOFT...EXPECT
SCHC-CHC SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING
SHOWER CHANCES (SCT-NMRS) THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ISOLD-
SCT LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO BE FORECAST.
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. EXPECT HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD FROM NEAR KMCO SOUTHWARD...CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND HIGHEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE STEERING
FLOW FOR CELLS WILL REMAIN OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AGAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH NUISANCE FLOODING ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING OFFSHORE
FLOW (CAPE SOUTHWARD) BECOMING LIGHT ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS MAINLY BELOW 10 MPH. EVEN WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WE WILL STILL REALIZE AFTERNOON HIGHS AGAIN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AREAWIDE.
AFTER SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE/MOVE OFF OF THE EAST COAST EARLY THIS
EVENING...EXPECT A FEW AREAS OF LINGERING STRATIFORM RAIN THROUGH
LATE EVENING ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE
LOW AND MID LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT THROUGH LATE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOW AND MID 70S. PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR.
THU...THE BASE OF A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL PRODUCE SOME DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ALOFT
OVER FL. IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
WASHING OUT NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH WILL PRODUCE AN E/NE FLOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS BUT WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER SUPPORT...COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE VERY HIGH.
THE BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE WE HAVE KEPT 40
POPS AND LOWERED ELSEWHERE TO 30 POP. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST (BEACHES) AND NEAR 90 INLAND.
FRI...DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
INCREASE THE WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS OVER FL. THE WEAK
RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DIMINISH AS A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOST OF FRIDAY LOOKS RAIN-
FREE...AT LEAST INTO EARLY AFTN...BUT A SEA BREEZE COLLISION LATE
IN THE DAY OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD SPARK SCATTERED STORMS WHICH
WILL PUSH EAST TO THE COAST TOWARD EVENING. HAVE DRAWN 40 POPS ALL
AREAS BUT AREAS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE NORTH INTERIOR
(NORTH OF ORLANDO) LOOK THE MOST FAVORED.
WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FIRST COOL FRONT OF THE
SEASON WILL PUSH THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND BRING A NOTICEABLE AIR
MASS CHANGE. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT ESPECIALLY FROM ORLANDO SOUTHWARD SAT AFTN. THE FAST MOVING
STORMS SHOULD NOT PRODUCE MUCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATION BUT COULD
CONTAIN STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. N/NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING LOWER HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTH LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES...60S ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY LOOKS QUITE REFRESHING WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S
WITH NORTH WINDS 10 MPH...A LITTLE STRONGER ALONG THE COAST.
MON-TUE...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE FL STRAITS AND
NW BAHAMAS. DO NOT HAVE ANY MENTIONABLE POPS EITHER DAY BUT SOME
REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE MAY RETURN NORTHWARD BY TUE AND BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
WILL MONITOR TAF SITES...ESP NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
FOR EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS...WHICH WILL BURN OFF
THRU MID/LATE MORNING...SHOULD ANY DEVELOP. LIGHT EARLY MORNING
WINDS WILL BECOME AN ONSHORE COMPONENT IN THE AFTERNOON. DEEP
MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ESP SOUTHWARD FROM NEAR
KSFB/KMCO...SO SCT-NMRS AFTN SHRA WITH ISOLD-SCT TSRA AGAIN
POSSIBLE. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SOUTH OF KMCO TODAY
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER PCPN CHANCES WILL RESIDE.
LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS STILL MAIN AVIATION THREATS.
BRIEF IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN/AROUND CONVECTION. CELL DIRECTION
WILL BE MAINLY FROM WEST TO EAST. ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN WIND DOWN
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...BUOYS RECORDING WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 KNOTS AND SEAS 1 FOOT JUST OFF THE BEACH TO 3 TO 4 FEET FROM 20NM
AND BEYOND. 1 TO 3 FOOT SEAS AND ONSHORE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
STILL A GOOD FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS THOUGH DEEP MOISTURE RESIDES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH EARLY
MORNING OFFSHORE WINDS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...(NE NORTH OF
IT)...BECOMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS MAINLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS...OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. WESTERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT
WILL AGAIN TAKE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER LAND TO
ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL/NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. MARINERS WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY WESTWARD AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS
AOB 3 FT BUT MAY BE LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF STORMS. DOMINANT WAVE
PERIODS AROUND 8 SECONDS.
THU...FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO WASH OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH PRODUCING E/NE WINDS
10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
FRI...THE RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE ATLC AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS SHOW A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SO
WINDS SHOULD START OUT QUITE LIGHT THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON AROUND 10 KNOTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STORMS TO PUSH OFFSHORE
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY EVENING.
WEEKEND...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS SAT
WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHING EAST AND OFFSHORE DURING
THE AFTN...SOME OF WHICH SHOULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE AROUND 15 KNOTS SAT
AFTN ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND OVERSPREAD ALL THE WATERS SAT
NIGHT AND CONTINUE SUNDAY. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO 5 FEET
OFFSHORE. BOATING CONDITIONS LOOK UNFAVORABLE ESPECIALLY IN THE
GULF STREAM WHERE CAUTION HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SHINGLE CREEK BASIN ON MON CAUSED THE CREEK
AT CAMPBELL TO RISE TO ACTION STAGE LATE EVENING. LATEST GAUGE
INFORMATION SUGGESTS THE CREEK WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE LEVELING OFF WITHIN ACTION STAGE.
WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AS ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN COULD RESULT IN
FURTHER RISES LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVE.
THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR REMAINS SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND MINOR FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. RIVER LEVELS ALSO RISING NEAR DELAND AND LAKE HARNEY AND
THESE SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH ACTION STAGE LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 86 73 88 73 / 50 20 30 20
MCO 89 73 90 72 / 60 20 40 10
MLB 86 74 88 73 / 60 30 40 20
VRB 88 73 89 72 / 60 30 40 20
LEE 89 73 90 72 / 50 20 40 10
SFB 88 73 90 72 / 50 20 30 10
ORL 88 75 90 73 / 60 20 40 10
FPR 88 72 88 71 / 60 30 40 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
IMPACT WX...LASCODY
HYDRO.......GLITTO
FORECASTS...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
758 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT INTO MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO THE
OH VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH
NORTHWEST GA BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE STARTING TO SLOW
DOWN ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT...AND THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES AS
NAM IS TRENDING SLOWER THAN ECMWF/GFS. WILL TAKE A BLEND OF MODEL
TIMINGS...WITH PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...
APPROACHING PORTIONS OF NORTH AND WEST GA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. MUCAPES AROUND DAYBREAK ARE GENERALLY 300-700 J/KG. CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND WEAKENING DYNAMICS WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPES AS THE FRONT PASSES GENERALLY BETWEEN
600-800 J/KG...AND MOST GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON THIS.
SHEAR IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS EVENT...BEST SHEAR IS ACROSS
NORTHWEST GA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. QPF NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE EITHER. STORM TOTAL VALUES
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY ARE GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH. WITH SLOWING
FRONTAL PASSAGE HAVE GONE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY... ALTHOUGH NORTH GA SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.
ATWELL
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE STILL ON TRACK THIS WEEKEND THOUGH
TEMPS WILL NOT LIKELY REACH RECORD LEVELS. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
ERN CONUS PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THRU AT LEAST TUESDAY BEFORE
H5 HGT FIELD FLATTENS. NEXT CHC OF PRECIP ON TUES. STILL AWAITING
12Z ECMWF AS OF THIS WRITING BUT 12Z GFS FLATTER WITH SHORTWAVE
COMPARED WITH 00Z ECMWF. HOPEFULLY THERE WILL BE BETTER CONSENSUS.
UNTIL THEN...HAVE KEPT PREV FCST WITH ONLY SLT CHCS. IF ECMWF
CONTINUES TREND OF 00Z RUN...WILL SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AND
POSS SVR STORMS.
SNELSON
PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014/
/SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LONG TERM BEGINS COOL AND DRY ON
SATURDAY. DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PUT MAX TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL MOST PLACES ACROSS THE AREA. A CHILLY NIGHT EXPECTED
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AGAIN WITH BELOW NORMAL LOWS. BROAD TROUGH
REDEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN STATES BY THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. A
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE TN/OH VALLEY REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY TIME FRAME. SOME DIFFERENCES ON STRENGTH AND AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. SO HAVE INCLUDED ONLY LOW POPS FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
41/NELSON
CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 10-04
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 96 1954 59 1957 71 1941 36 1987
KATL 91 1954 61 1957 71 1941 39 1987
1941 1899 1884 1974
KCSG 94 1954 65 1975 73 2007 40 1974
1957
KMCN 95 1954 61 1899 73 1911 36 1987
1974
RECORDS FOR 10-05
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 98 1954 61 2009 70 2007 39 1974
1948 2002
KATL 95 1954 59 1975 72 1919 40 1974
KCSG 96 1954 64 1975 73 2007 40 1968
2002
1998
KMCN 100 1954 63 2009 72 1954 37 1974
1941
1898
RECORDS FOR 10-06
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 98 1954 56 1968 70 1919 38 1921
1910
KATL 95 1954 54 1932 72 1884 42 1985
1964
1932
KCSG 95 1954 63 1996 73 1954 45 1987
1974
1964
KMCN 99 1954 65 1996 73 1954 41 1961
AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
NAM/GFS AND RAP MODELS ALL SUPPORT THE CIGS DROPPING TO IFR FROM
10-14Z AND IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR WITH THE ONSET OF SHOWERS. BEST
TIMING FOR TSTMS IS AFTER 15Z ACROSS ATL/AHN SITES. WINDS WILL BE
SE INITIALLY...SHIFTING SW BY 14Z WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO
NEAR 10KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 64 79 58 65 / 30 90 50 5
ATLANTA 65 80 57 63 / 50 90 40 5
BLAIRSVILLE 61 73 50 58 / 50 100 40 5
CARTERSVILLE 66 77 55 63 / 70 100 30 5
COLUMBUS 66 80 60 67 / 40 80 40 5
GAINESVILLE 64 74 57 61 / 50 90 40 5
MACON 65 82 61 68 / 20 80 60 5
ROME 63 77 56 64 / 90 100 20 5
PEACHTREE CITY 64 78 56 65 / 40 90 40 5
VIDALIA 66 84 68 72 / 10 70 60 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....DEESE/33
AVIATION...16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1003 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
608 PM CDT
HAVE SEEN A RECENT UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM NEAR BMI
NORTHEAST TO SOUTH OF VPZ. SURFACE OBS SUGGEST A WEAK/ILL DEFINED
WARM FRONT IS IN THE AREA WHERE THESE STORMS HAVE RECENTLY FORMED.
ACARS DATA IS SPARSE IN THE REGION TODAY...SO TOUGH TO SAY WITH HIGH
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA. RAP
INITIALIZATION SOUNDING FROM SOUTHERN FORD COUNTY SUGGESTS A
MODERATE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED
PARCELS...THOUGH RADAR CHARACTERISTICS OF THE STORMS SUGGESTS THAT
THESE STORMS MAY INDEED BE ROOTED NEAR OR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
INSTABILITY IS LIKELY WEAK...THOUGH APPARENTLY SUFFICIENT FOR ROBUST
CONVECTION. ASSUMING STORMS ARE BASED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THEN
OBSERVATIONAL DATA WOULD SUGGEST THEY ARE IN A HELICITY RICH
ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWEST 1KM. GIVEN THE LOW
LCLS...HIGH SHEAR...AND ALREADY SOME TRANSIENT ROTATION WITHIN THE
STORMS AM CONCERNED THAT WE WILL SEE A WINDOW OF TIME THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS WITH MINI-SUPERCELL POTENTIAL AND CANNOT TOTALLY
RULE OUT A BRIEF TORNADO. SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LOW...BUT
GIVEN APPARENT ENVIRONMENT AND RADAR TRENDS THE THREAT IS NON-ZERO.
IZZI
&&
.DISCUSSION...
226 PM CDT
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS EVENING WILL BE ON POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLY IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CWFA THIS EVENING. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT THE
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK...WITH HIGHS THIS AFTN STRUGGLING TO WARM
BEYOND 70 TO THE MID 70S SOUTH OF A PONTIAC TO VALPO LINE. VERY
MOIST AIRMASS HAS PUMPED DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW/MID 60S THIS AFTN.
THE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO GET GOING THIS AFTN ACROSS
THE BULK OF THE AREA...LARGELY DUE TO THE THICK SOLAR SHIELDING. AS
THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHWEST IL THIS
EVE...THIS SHOULD HELP WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION. HI-RES GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING A LINE SEGMENT...HOWEVER TRYING
TO PIN-DOWN WHERE THIS LINE DEVELOPS IS THE LARGEST CHALLENGE.
EITHER WAY...EXPECT A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTH
TOWARDS CHICAGO EARLY THIS EVE. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE...A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD EASILY
PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE GREATEST SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF GIBSON CITY TO VALPO LINE...SO ANY STRONGER
STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THAT AREA COULD SEE STRONG ASCENT AND
POSSIBLY A ROTATING UPDRAFT.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHUD QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE EAST AS THE SFC LOW
LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...AND WINDS SHIFT WEST. 850MB THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER WILL
LIKELY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFT DAYBREAK FRI. LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN MILD...IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
STRONG PRESSURE RISES ARE POISED TO ARRIVE FRI AS THE PUNCH OF MUCH
COOLER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST
AT SUNRISE...OR SHORTLY AFTER. BY EARLY AFTN EXPECT TEMPS TO BEGIN
FALLING A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND MID
50S IN THE SOUTHEAST. 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ARRIVING OVERHEAD
MIDDAY FRI...WITH A PERIOD OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARRIVING MIDDAY.
WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING NORTHWEST AND WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINING
THE GUSTY WINDS SHUD PERSIST THRU FRI NGT/SAT MORNING. CURRENTLY
EXPECT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO ALSO PERSIST THRU SAT...HOWEVER COULD
SEE DRY AIR ARRIVING SAT MORNING AND PERHAPS RESULT IN A DRY DAY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWFA WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO MOVE BEYOND THE UPR 40S IN A FEW PLACES SAT...PERHAPS
REACHING 50 SOUTH OF I-80. YES FOR HIGHS...WHICH IS APPROXIMATELY
15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH WIND WILL LINGER SAT NIGHT TO
PREVENT FROST FORMATION...SO HAVE HELD THIS OUT OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST. BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN DIP INTO THE MID/UPR 30S.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIME/NORTH ATLANTIC...AS THE
ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN THIS FEATURE THRU THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED. THIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE PROLONGED TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...AND CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR. CLOSER TO LATER IN THE
WEEK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STRENGTH OF THE BLOCK WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN...HOWEVER SOME ELEMENTS OF TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE
WILL CONTINUE. PERIODIC SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL
CANADA AND BRING SOME LGT PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED...BUT NOT EXPECTING
AT THIS TIME ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INVOF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS.
* CIGS DROPPING TO IFR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
* FROPA ARND 12Z WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SLY TO WLY AND
STRENGTHENING WITH GUSTS APCHG 30KT LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON.
* PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS FOLLOWING FROPA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
INITIAL CONCERN REMAINS THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS...FEEL THAT THE BULK OF THE TS WILL REMAIN TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR AN AREA OF PCPN
MOVING INTO NRN IL WITH LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING OBSERVED...BUT
THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLD/EMBEDDED TS WITHIN THIS
PCPN AREA...SO HAVE MAINTAINED SOME MENTION OF TS...BUT HAVE TRIED
TO TRIM BACK THE DURATION OF THE TEMPO AND VC GROUPS. AS A SFC
WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WHILE MOVING NORTH
INTO WISCONSIN...THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
RELATIVELY SLOW...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PCPN IS STILL LIKELY
TONIGHT AND CIGS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DROP INTO IFR RANGES IN THE
WARM/MOIST SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HAVE TRENDED CIGS
HIGHER FOLLOWING THE FROPA...AND GONE WITH PREVAILING MVFR
CIGS...RATHER THAN IFR CIGS AS COOLER...DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT.
FOLLOWING THE FROPA...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL SHIFT TO WINDS. AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS TOMORROW AND THE
FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF STRONG PRESSURE
RISES AND A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP. THE SHORT RANGE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT GUSTS APPROACHING 30KT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC TOMORROW. WIND DIRECTION SHOULD BE WLY
OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
SOME SCT SHRA IN THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT
ESPECIALLY DURG THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND DURATION OF TS THIS EVENING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF FROPA AND WIND TRENDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY...CHANCE SHRA AND MVFR CIGS EARLY.
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA LATE.
MONDAY...CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA LATE.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
1249 PM CDT
MAIN MARINE FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF
WESTERLY GALES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN
BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND TO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY FRIDAY
MORNING. IN THE PROCESS...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. A COMBINATION OF MUCH COOLER AIR AND THE TIGHTENING OF THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEEPENING LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING A
PERIOD OF 35 KT GALES DEVELOPING BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MAINTAIN THE COOL ADVECTION ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH WINDS SLOWLY EASING TO 25-30 KT SATURDAY NIGHT. DEEP LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LAKES ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SOME WEAKENING
OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
LAKES AS ANOTHER WEAKER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS LOOKS TO
KEEP WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT/ABOVE 20 KT INTO SUNDAY.
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
OVER THE ILLINOIS NEAR SHORE ZONES...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FARTHER EAST ALONG THE INDIANA SHORE.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ744-LMZ745...7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM
FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744-
LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878...4 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743...7 AM FRIDAY
TO 10 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
915 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Ongoing convection...as well as more stratiform rain and vcts
across the CWA this evening... and likely to continue. Forecast is
well representative. Though threat is dwindling for severe weather
in Central Illinois as the airmass is worked over and accessible
instability is highly limited...plenty of rain out there to
continue more of a flood threat. Area with the FF watch will
likely continue into the overnight hours. Precip rates have
reduced considerably and isolated areas are seeing some limited urban
water issues...but will continue to watch the issues through the
overnight hours. No immediate updates to the forecast anticipated
at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Two concerns with this part of the forecast are the severe weather
and flash flood potential.
Early afternoon radar imagery showing an increase in showers and
thunderstorms along and east of I-57. Areas southeast of I-70 have
had some breaks in the cloud cover, which has allowed CAPE`s to rise
to over 2000 J/kg. While the late morning severe weather outlook
covers the entire CWA, it is looking like areas south of I-72 will
be the main concern. Additional line of storms moving through south
central Missouri will be entering our forecast area very late
afternoon or early evening per the HRRR model. The high-res models
are also showing some convection along the front itself, which will
be entering the western CWA toward midnight and crossing the CWA
overnight. Forecast soundings are rather moist through 10kft, so
think that damaging winds and intense lightning will be more of a
concern than large hail.
In regards to the flood threat, the overnight rainfall deposited
from 2.5 to 4 inches along the southwest edge of the CWA as far east
as Taylorville, with more isolated streaks of 2+ inches near
Mattoon. Precipitable water values expected to be around 1.8 to 1.9
inches, which is about 3 standard deviations above normal for early
October. Another couple inches potentially may occur through
tonight, especially across the southwest CWA. Will leave the flash
flood watch in its current configuration.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
By Friday morning, the front will be through the area and any pcpn
will be in the form of showers and should only be in the eastern
parts of the CWA. So, early Friday pops will just be high chance and
then decrease during the day. However, with the upper level trough
still west of the area, any clearing behind the front will allow
cold air clouds and scattered showers to develop and spread across
the area for Friday afternoon. Will have slight chance pops in the
forecast for this type of pcpn. Once the trough rotates through, the
upper level cold low pressure area will drop into the Grt Lks and
bring continued daytime/diurnal clouds in the area for Sat and Sun.
Any pcpn associated with this will be very light, primarily be over
northeast IL, and not worth the mention at this time.
Temps will become cooler the end of the week and into the weekend,
after the front moves through. 850mb temps forecast to be around -2
to -4 for the weekend, so coldest temps look to be Fri night through
Sat night. Would not be surprised to see some frost in some areas in
the northwest Sat night, if clouds can clear out and winds become
lighter.
Cyclonic flow will remain over the area into the beginning of next
week, but not quite as deep as it is for this weekend. That being
said, the models do forecast another frontal system to move into the
area Sunday night and remain in the area through Monday night. So, a
chance of pcpn will continue over the area through that time period.
Past Monday night, any pcpn chances will be small, in the 20pct
range. This will only be seen in the grids, with nothing mentioned
in the worded forecast. So, unsettled pattern looks to take hold for
most of the week.
Temps through the extended will remain on the cool side, but as the
pattern becomes more zonal, there should be a slight warming trend
for the later part of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Short term aviation driven by thunderstorms and heavy rain esp for
BMI DEC, and soon CMI. Rain and low cigs with vcts for SPI and PIA
until another round of storms in another hour or two ahead of an
advancing cold front that has not yet cleared the state. Trof
aloft will keep the low and bkn/ovc conditions throughout
tomorrow. Though there may be some breaks as the waves move around
the synoptic low, they will be short lived and fill back in with
abundant llvl moisture available. Winds likely to be a bit gusty
tomorrow in the wake of the passing boundary. Optimistic to lift
cigs to VFR by midday tomorrow...but confidence not high and
keeping close to 3kft.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 6 AM CDT Friday FOR ILZ040-047-049>052.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
650 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
608 PM CDT
HAVE SEEN A RECENT UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM NEAR BMI
NORTHEAST TO SOUTH OF VPZ. SURFACE OBS SUGGEST A WEAK/ILL DEFINED
WARM FRONT IS IN THE AREA WHERE THESE STORMS HAVE RECENTLY FORMED.
ACARS DATA IS SPARSE IN THE REGION TODAY...SO TOUGH TO SAY WITH HIGH
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA. RAP
INITIALIZATION SOUNDING FROM SOUTHERN FORD COUNTY SUGGESTS A
MODERATE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED
PARCELS...THOUGH RADAR CHARACTERISTICS OF THE STORMS SUGGESTS THAT
THESE STORMS MAY INDEED BE ROOTED NEAR OR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
INSTABILITY IS LIKELY WEAK...THOUGH APPARENTLY SUFFICIENT FOR ROBUST
CONVECTION. ASSUMING STORMS ARE BASED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THEN
OBSERVATIONAL DATA WOULD SUGGEST THEY ARE IN A HELICITY RICH
ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWEST 1KM. GIVEN THE LOW
LCLS...HIGH SHEAR...AND ALREADY SOME TRANSIENT ROTATION WITHIN THE
STORMS AM CONCERNED THAT WE WILL SEE A WINDOW OF TIME THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS WITH MINI-SUPERCELL POTENTIAL AND CANNOT TOTALLY
RULE OUT A BRIEF TORNADO. SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LOW...BUT
GIVEN APPARENT ENVIRONMENT AND RADAR TRENDS THE THREAT IS NON-ZERO.
IZZI
&&
.DISCUSSION...
226 PM CDT
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS EVENING WILL BE ON POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLY IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CWFA THIS EVENING. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT THE
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK...WITH HIGHS THIS AFTN STRUGGLING TO WARM
BEYOND 70 TO THE MID 70S SOUTH OF A PONTIAC TO VALPO LINE. VERY
MOIST AIRMASS HAS PUMPED DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW/MID 60S THIS AFTN.
THE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO GET GOING THIS AFTN ACROSS
THE BULK OF THE AREA...LARGELY DUE TO THE THICK SOLAR SHIELDING. AS
THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHWEST IL THIS
EVE...THIS SHOULD HELP WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION. HI-RES GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING A LINE SEGMENT...HOWEVER TRYING
TO PIN-DOWN WHERE THIS LINE DEVELOPS IS THE LARGEST CHALLENGE.
EITHER WAY...EXPECT A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTH
TOWARDS CHICAGO EARLY THIS EVE. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE...A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD EASILY
PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE GREATEST SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF GIBSON CITY TO VALPO LINE...SO ANY STRONGER
STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THAT AREA COULD SEE STRONG ASCENT AND
POSSIBLY A ROTATING UPDRAFT.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHUD QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE EAST AS THE SFC LOW
LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...AND WINDS SHIFT WEST. 850MB THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER WILL
LIKELY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFT DAYBREAK FRI. LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN MILD...IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
STRONG PRESSURE RISES ARE POISED TO ARRIVE FRI AS THE PUNCH OF MUCH
COOLER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST
AT SUNRISE...OR SHORTLY AFTER. BY EARLY AFTN EXPECT TEMPS TO BEGIN
FALLING A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND MID
50S IN THE SOUTHEAST. 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ARRIVING OVERHEAD
MIDDAY FRI...WITH A PERIOD OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARRIVING MIDDAY.
WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING NORTHWEST AND WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINING
THE GUSTY WINDS SHUD PERSIST THRU FRI NGT/SAT MORNING. CURRENTLY
EXPECT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO ALSO PERSIST THRU SAT...HOWEVER COULD
SEE DRY AIR ARRIVING SAT MORNING AND PERHAPS RESULT IN A DRY DAY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWFA WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO MOVE BEYOND THE UPR 40S IN A FEW PLACES SAT...PERHAPS
REACHING 50 SOUTH OF I-80. YES FOR HIGHS...WHICH IS APPROXIMATELY
15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH WIND WILL LINGER SAT NIGHT TO
PREVENT FROST FORMATION...SO HAVE HELD THIS OUT OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST. BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN DIP INTO THE MID/UPR 30S.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIME/NORTH ATLANTIC...AS THE
ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN THIS FEATURE THRU THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED. THIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE PROLONGED TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...AND CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR. CLOSER TO LATER IN THE
WEEK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STRENGTH OF THE BLOCK WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN...HOWEVER SOME ELEMENTS OF TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE
WILL CONTINUE. PERIODIC SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL
CANADA AND BRING SOME LGT PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED...BUT NOT EXPECTING
AT THIS TIME ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INVOF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
* CIGS DROPPING TO IFR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
* FROPA ARND 12Z WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SLY TO WLY AND
STRENGTHENING WITH GUSTS APCHG 30KT LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON.
* PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS FOLLOWING FROPA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
INITIAL CONCERN REMAINS THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS...FEEL THAT THE BULK OF THE TS WILL REMAIN TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR AN AREA OF PCPN
MOVING INTO NRN IL WITH LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING OBSERVED...BUT
THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLD/EMBEDDED TS WITHIN THIS
PCPN AREA...SO HAVE MAINTAINED SOME MENTION OF TS...BUT HAVE TRIED
TO TRIM BACK THE DURATION OF THE TEMPO AND VC GROUPS. AS A SFC
WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WHILE MOVING NORTH
INTO WISCONSIN...THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
RELATIVELY SLOW...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PCPN IS STILL LIKELY
TONIGHT AND CIGS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DROP INTO IFR RANGES IN THE
WARM/MOIST SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HAVE TRENDED CIGS
HIGHER FOLLOWING THE FROPA...AND GONE WITH PREVAILING MVFR
CIGS...RATHER THAN IFR CIGS AS COOLER...DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT.
FOLLOWING THE FROPA...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL SHIFT TO WINDS. AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS TOMORROW AND THE
FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF STRONG PRESSURE
RISES AND A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP. THE SHORT RANGE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT GUSTS APPROACHING 30KT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC TOMORROW. WIND DIRECTION SHOULD BE WLY
OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
SOME SCT SHRA IN THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT
ESPECIALLY DURG THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND DURATION OF TS THIS EVENING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF FROPA AND WIND TRENDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY...CHANCE SHRA AND MVFR CIGS EARLY.
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA LATE.
MONDAY...CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA LATE.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
1249 PM CDT
MAIN MARINE FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF
WESTERLY GALES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN
BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND TO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY FRIDAY
MORNING. IN THE PROCESS...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. A COMBINATION OF MUCH COOLER AIR AND THE TIGHTENING OF THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEEPENING LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING A
PERIOD OF 35 KT GALES DEVELOPING BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MAINTAIN THE COOL ADVECTION ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH WINDS SLOWLY EASING TO 25-30 KT SATURDAY NIGHT. DEEP LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LAKES ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SOME WEAKENING
OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
LAKES AS ANOTHER WEAKER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS LOOKS TO
KEEP WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT/ABOVE 20 KT INTO SUNDAY.
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
OVER THE ILLINOIS NEAR SHORE ZONES...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FARTHER EAST ALONG THE INDIANA SHORE.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ744-LMZ745...7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM
FRIDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744-
LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878...4 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743...7 AM FRIDAY
TO 10 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
636 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Two concerns with this part of the forecast are the severe weather
and flash flood potential.
Early afternoon radar imagery showing an increase in showers and
thunderstorms along and east of I-57. Areas southeast of I-70 have
had some breaks in the cloud cover, which has allowed CAPE`s to rise
to over 2000 J/kg. While the late morning severe weather outlook
covers the entire CWA, it is looking like areas south of I-72 will
be the main concern. Additional line of storms moving through south
central Missouri will be entering our forecast area very late
afternoon or early evening per the HRRR model. The high-res models
are also showing some convection along the front itself, which will
be entering the western CWA toward midnight and crossing the CWA
overnight. Forecast soundings are rather moist through 10kft, so
think that damaging winds and intense lightning will be more of a
concern than large hail.
In regards to the flood threat, the overnight rainfall deposited
from 2.5 to 4 inches along the southwest edge of the CWA as far east
as Taylorville, with more isolated streaks of 2+ inches near
Mattoon. Precipitable water values expected to be around 1.8 to 1.9
inches, which is about 3 standard deviations above normal for early
October. Another couple inches potentially may occur through
tonight, especially across the southwest CWA. Will leave the flash
flood watch in its current configuration.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
By Friday morning, the front will be through the area and any pcpn
will be in the form of showers and should only be in the eastern
parts of the CWA. So, early Friday pops will just be high chance and
then decrease during the day. However, with the upper level trough
still west of the area, any clearing behind the front will allow
cold air clouds and scattered showers to develop and spread across
the area for Friday afternoon. Will have slight chance pops in the
forecast for this type of pcpn. Once the trough rotates through, the
upper level cold low pressure area will drop into the Grt Lks and
bring continued daytime/diurnal clouds in the area for Sat and Sun.
Any pcpn associated with this will be very light, primarily be over
northeast IL, and not worth the mention at this time.
Temps will become cooler the end of the week and into the weekend,
after the front moves through. 850mb temps forecast to be around -2
to -4 for the weekend, so coldest temps look to be Fri night through
Sat night. Would not be surprised to see some frost in some areas in
the northwest Sat night, if clouds can clear out and winds become
lighter.
Cyclonic flow will remain over the area into the beginning of next
week, but not quite as deep as it is for this weekend. That being
said, the models do forecast another frontal system to move into the
area Sunday night and remain in the area through Monday night. So, a
chance of pcpn will continue over the area through that time period.
Past Monday night, any pcpn chances will be small, in the 20pct
range. This will only be seen in the grids, with nothing mentioned
in the worded forecast. So, unsettled pattern looks to take hold for
most of the week.
Temps through the extended will remain on the cool side, but as the
pattern becomes more zonal, there should be a slight warming trend
for the later part of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Short term aviation driven by thunderstorms and heavy rain esp for
BMI DEC, and soon CMI. Rain and low cigs with vcts for SPI and PIA
until another round of storms in another hour or two ahead of an
advancing cold front that has not yet cleared the state. Trof
aloft will keep the low and bkn/ovc conditions throughout
tomorrow. Though there may be some breaks as the waves move around
the synoptic low, they will be short lived and fill back in with
abundant llvl moisture available. Winds likely to be a bit gusty
tomorrow in the wake of the passing boundary. Optimistic to lift
cigs to VFR by midday tomorrow...but confidence not high and
keeping close to 3kft.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 6 AM CDT Friday FOR ILZ040-047-049>052.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
458 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
250 PM CDT
STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW...AND AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE FOR THE
WEEKEND.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THIS AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL IOWA INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND IS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY OFF TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THE PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AS 30
KT LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS TRANSPORT 1.5-1.6 INCH PWATS INTO THE REGION
ALONG WITH SOME MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER BUT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH CLOSER TO THE FRONT WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS A
LITTLE STRONGER. MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION SHIFTS OFF TO OUR EAST
BY THE EARLY MORNING/PREDAWN HOURS THURSDAY AND SHOULD RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR A FEW HOURS THEREAFTER...THOUGH EARLY
MORNING PRECIP WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE SEVERE THREAT TOMORROW AND
OUR ABILITY TO DESTABILIZE.
THURSDAY...
RELATIVELY UNORGANIZED SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT FROM OKLAHOMA
EARLY MORNING DEEPENING A FEW MILLIBARS BY LATE EVENING AS ITS
BECOMES A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER FAR EASTERN IOWA INTO
WISCONSIN AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THURSDAY EVENING. A WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO
LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH MID/UPPER
60 DEWPOINTS OVERSPREADING THE REGION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
UNIMPRESSIVE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW RESULTING IN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY DESPITE THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE...HOWEVER A VERY DYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO A 100-110KT
UPPER JET DEVELOPS OVERHEAD AND STRONG MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE COMPACT LEAD SHORTWAVE.
STRONG SYNOPTIC ASCENT SHOULD BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE SHORTCOMINGS
OF THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...AND STRONG SHEAR...ESPECIALLY IN
THE LOW LEVELS...COULD ALLOW FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS PARTICULARLY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE THERE IS A LOW BUT NON-ZERO
LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT. NAM GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT
OVERDONE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT IS A SLIGHTLY DEEPER
OUTLIER BUT DOES SHOW NICELY BACKED SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE WARM
FRONT RESULTING IN CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND AROUND 20KT 0-1KM SHEAR AND
45-50KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HIGH-SHEAR LOW-INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENTS
ARE OFTEN TRICKY TO PIN DOWN AND EVOLUTION OF TONIGHTS CONVECTION
ADDS AN ADDITIONAL DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST TOMORROW
MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...
HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM WILL DEFINITELY BEAR WATCHING ESPECIALLY IF THE
LOW DEEPENS AS QUICKLY AS SOME MODELS INDICATE. THURSDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO BECOME LINEAR OUT AHEAD. CONTINUED STRONG KINEMATICS
WILL RESULT IN AN ONGOING SEVERE THREAT WITH SEVERE WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY CONCERN.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. STRONG PV ANOMALY WILL DIG
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST RESULTING IN RAPID DEEPENING
OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
ENHANCING THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW. H85 TEMPS ARE PROGGED
FALL THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH THE 0C ISOTHERM PUSHING ACROSS THE
AREA AND TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT -3C TO -4C SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE MAIN AXIS OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...
THEN BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING MID LEVELS SHOULD
CAP COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS GROWTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH CHANCES
FOR PRECIP MUCH LOWER...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SPRINKLES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORY THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...DROPPING WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO HIT THE 60 MARK IN MOST AREAS...AND ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOWER 50S SATURDAY UNDER THE THERMAL TROUGH. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OUTSIDE OF THE
THERMAL HEAT ISLAND OF CHICAGO WHERE TEMPS MAY STAY PROPPED UP IN
THE LOW 40S. FROST IN OUTLYING AREAS IS A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AND THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING TO
HELP RADIATE BETTER.
NEXT WEEK...
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY THROUGH
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE LOCAL AREA REMAINING IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THERE WILL BE PERIODIC LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP AS WAVES
TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION THOUGH TIMING THESE IS DIFFICULT THIS
FAR OUT SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DETAILS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASING
BY MIDWEEK AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL
VALUES.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 12 KT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS BY LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
* CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEYOND
THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOWER VIS
LIKELY.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE THE TIMING OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS IS RESULTING IN A
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP AROUND 15 KT POSSIBLE.
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY
CONSOLIDATE AND SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE MID AND PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS WILL
LIFT A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS AND VISBYS...ESPECIALLY
BY THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE THREAT FOR
THUNDER WITH THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE LOW...BUT NOT
ZERO. MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THURSDAY...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
BEYOND THE CURRENT 30 HOUR TAF PERIOD...INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL THE CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TERMINALS LATER
THURSDAY IS MODERATE TO HIGH...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TIMING
IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS TIME.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* MODERATE TO HIGH WITH THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT LOW TO MODERATE ON EXACT TIMING.
* LOW TO MODERATE WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER END MVFR CIGS BY EARLY
THURSDAY.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF TSRA. MVFR LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA LATE.
MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
226 PM CDT
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS GOING TO COME TO AN END TONIGHT...AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONGER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS HAVE
REMAINED SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT BUMP IN THE
GRADIENT CREATING OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT. WITH THE CONTINUED
SOUTHEAST FLOW...WAVES HAVE REMAINED ELEVATED IN THE ILLINOIS
NEARSHORE WATERS TO AROUND 2 TO 4 FT WHILE ALONG THE INDIANA
NEARSHORE WAVES ARE GENERALLY 1 TO 3 FT. AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AND A TIGHTENING GRADIENT IS
POISED TO INCREASE WINDS THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE THRU THUR. AS THE LOW
ARRIVES OVER NORTHERN IL THUR EVENING...IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF
GALES MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. AS
THIS LOW MOVES TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO WHILE STRENGTHENING...WITH
WINDS TO 30 KT LIKELY. A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHERN END
OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS WELL AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING OVER
THE LAKE WILL SUPPORT WINDS TO 30 KT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
WELL AS EVEN A PERIOD OF GALES POSSIBLE. THEN EXPECT A SLOW
DOWNWARD TREND IN SPEEDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
259 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
Scattered showers and thunderstorms in west central IL will become
more numerous overnight as several ingredients come together. At the
surface a warm front extended from NW Missouri into south central
Illinois. This boundary, along with a shortwave trough lifting to
the northeast and plenty of upper level divergence will keep the
showers and isolated thunderstorms going from west central into
central Illinois this evening. Relatively drier air in eastern IL
will initially keep the eastward extent of the precipitation limited
to west of I-55 much of this evening.
The warm front will slowly continue to lift to the northeast
tonight, remaining the focus for additional convection to develop.
An increasing low level jet intersecting the front and higher low
level moisture levels in much of the forecast area will result in
widespread showers and thunderstorms in central IL toward midnight,
and eastern IL toward daybreak. Rainfall totals around 0.50-1.00
inch are possible overnight, with the highest amounts anticipated
along and west of the IL river valley.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
Models are very consistent with the cold front refiring tomorrow
afternoon west of the area and then storms moving into the area late
tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow evening. Should be sufficient
moisture tomorrow ahead of the front to produce instabilities around
1500 J/kg. Models also forecasting strong low level winds and decent
wind shear. So storms are expected to become severe in the CWA,
mainly during evening hours. Agree with SPC with the slight risk
across the area tomorrow with the threat of large hail in the west
and damaging winds throughout the CWA after the storms become more
linear. In addition to the threat of severe weather, heavy rainfall
is also possible through tomorrow night west of I-55 where 1.75 to
over 2 inches is possible and just over 1.25 is possible in the
southeast parts of the CWA. Once the front moves through the area
cooler air will move into the area. However, the area will remain
controlled by an upper level trough. This will bring several chances
of scattered showers Friday and Friday night. The upper level trough
will remain over the area, but dry weather is expected for the first
part of the weekend.
The upper level trough will still be in control of some of the area
for the later part of the weekend and into the beginning of next
week. This will bring another shot of scattered showers to the area
for Sun through Mon night. However, the chances will be low enough
so that pops will just be slight chances; which means it will be in
the grids, but not in the worded forecast. A warm frontal system
will push into the area the beginning of next week, so will have
higher chances of pcpn for Mon night in the southeast only. As the
upper level flow becomes more zonal for middle of next week, dry
weather will return.
Temps will be warm one more day, tomorrow, and then cooler, below
normal temps are expected over the weekend and through most of next
week. By middle of the week, temps begin a slow trend of warming.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
Increasing clouds and potential for showers and thunderstorms can
be expected in parts of central Illinois this afternoon, and
across all of central and eastern IL tonight.
Satellite and radar indicated that convection from NE Missouri and
SE Iowa continues to advance east-northeast, but weaken gradually.
Scattered showers can be expected along the IL river valley early
this afternoon, and toward the I-55 corridor just before dusk.
This activity will continue to weaken as it encounters dry air in
the mid-lower levels.
A slow moving warm front, which extended from western IA into
southeast MO around midday will slowly advance through central IL
tonight. The NAM, SREF, HRRR and RAP models are all in fairly good
agreement that an increasing southwesterly low level jet will
intersect this boundary and result in widespread showers and
elevated thunderstorms between 06-10z in west central IL, and
09-15z in eastern IL. This will result in MVFR visibility, but
have decided to hold off on MVFR ceilings for now until confidence
is greater in low level moisture fields.
Am expecting a break in the convection during much of the post
dawn hours in west central IL and by late morning in eastern IL as
the warm front continues to lift northeast and put the region in
the warm sector. Could see the beginnings of the next round of
scattered convection, ahead of a cold front, in western IL late
Thursday morning, but the best chances will be later Thursday
afternoon.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Miller
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
234 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
328 AM CDT
A RANGE OF FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH FAIRLY
MILD CONDITIONS TO START WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN/THUNDER USHERING IN
TEMPERATURES MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. EARLY MORNING
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY SPINNING OVER
PENNSYLVANIA WITH A NARROW RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
OF GREATER NOTE IS A BROAD LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. ONE CLOSED UPPER LOW IS SPINNING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH A WEAKER
WAVE MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ANOTHER WAVE IS
DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WILL BE A KEY PLAYER IN OUR
WEATHER GOING INTO THURSDAY/FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IS SPREAD FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOCAL AREA WITH A
STRONG LOW MOVING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
TODAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST TODAY RESULTING IN A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND. WINDS LOOK TO BE
LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE LAKE TO TURN WINDS MORE EASTERLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SO WHILE HIGHS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL
WARM INTO THE 70S...WARMEST WEST AND SOUTH...LAKESHORE AREAS OF NE
IL WILL LIKELY BE HELD INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. NW INDIANA LAKEFRONT
AREAS MAY BE SPARED THE EXTRA COOLING UNLESS WINDS ARE ABLE TO TURN
NORTHEAST. STRATUS MAY BE LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH MID MORNING BUT SHOULD LIFT TO THE NORTH BY LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LOOK TO THICKEN ACROSS NORTHWEST
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...THINGS START TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE TONIGHT AS THE
NORTHERNMOST UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND A SERIES OF
WEAKER WAVES CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
MOVE NORTHEAST AND ACT ON THE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL PUSH BANDS OF SHOWERS
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE FORCING IS NOT TERRIBLY
COHERENT AS IT SPREADS IN EARLY THIS EVENING SO WILL KEEP POPS
LOW...BUT FORCING FOCUSES OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN BEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH LESS COVERAGE
EAST. ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED BUT STILL PRESENT
OVERNIGHT SO WILL INCLUDE THUNDER MENTION MAINLY OVERNIGHT. OVERALL
ACTIVITY LOOKS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BE THE MAIN PERIOD FOR
RAIN/THUNDER AS THE UPPER WAVE NOW MOVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
HELPS AMPLIFY THE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN AS IT REACHES THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS AND CROSSES THE AREA
DURING THE DAY WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THURSDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF
WAVES WILL NEED TO BE REFINED BUT RIGHT NOW THE MAIN PERIOD FOR
ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY MAY SPREAD INTO THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF THE LOW LOOKS TO BE FILLED WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
PRECIP. FOCUSED FORCING LOOKS TO BE HELD BACK ACROSS
MISSOURI/OKLAHOMA/KANSAS DURING THE DAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
KICKING THE SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS NW MISSOURI LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A LINE OF STORMS TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EVENING. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW FAR
WEST OF THE AREA THE LOW TRACKS WITH A FURTHER WEST TRACK...AS SOME
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING...LEADING TO A BETTER SEVERE THREAT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA THANKS TO A MORE ROBUST WARM SECTOR AND GREATER
INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO HELP MAINTAIN AN INCOMING SQUALL LINE
DURING THE EVENING. STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN
SEVERE THREAT. HEAVY RAINFALL IS A CONCERN AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES PUSH 1.6 OR 1.7 INCHES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH LOOK LIKELY WITH THE EXTENT OF STRONGER
CONVECTION DICTATING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED 2+ INCHES. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WOULD BE THAT THE WAVES OF PRECIP LOOK TO BE MOVING STEADILY.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF PRECIP
WAVES AND CLOUD COVER BUT WITH THE AREA GETTING INTO THE WARM SECTOR
AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP LOOKING TO BE LOWEST DURING THE DAY HIGHS MAY
WARM WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST WITH
GUIDANCE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE IT WILL BE BY 12Z FRIDAY.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN CWA IF NOT HAVING ALREADY
DONE SO BY FRIDAY MORNING SO SOME LINGERING CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE
EAST. A REINFORCING UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE IN FROM CANADA AND CLOSE
OFF BEFORE DROPPING RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL SPREAD IN AS ALL OF THIS OCCURS WITH H85
TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR 0C BY EVENING WITH A GUSTY WEST WIND. IN
ADDITION WITH THE UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA SHOWERS ARE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. BETWEEN THE COLD
ADVECTION AND INCREASING SHOWER POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPS WILL PROBABLY
OCCUR EARLY THEN FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS EXPECT LOW TO MID
50S IF NOT COOLER BY EVENING FOR ALL AREAS...WITH LOWS FALLING TO
AROUND 40 AWAY FROM THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS AND CLOUD
KEEPING MAX COOLING FROM OCCURRING. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE
EAST SATURDAY MORNING BUT EXPECT A DRY DAY BEYOND THAT WITH A SUN
AND CLOUD MIX. HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
WITH BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION THANKS
TO WHAT WILL HAVE EVOLVED INTO A MASSIVE BROAD UPPER LOW OVER
ONTARIO...THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR SHORTWAVES TO PASS ALONG WITH
BOUTS OF CLOUD COVER. AS A RESULT MAX COOLING MAY BE TEMPERED ONCE
AGAIN BUT STILL EXPECT UPPER 30S FOR MOST AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT
BRINGING AT LEAST PATCHY FROST POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE BIG UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE
INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY AS IT WILL BE REINFORCED A FEW TIMES BY WAVES
PUSHING INTO FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL BRING A FEW ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH SOME CONSISTENCY IN A WAVE PASSING LATER
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. EACH WAVE WILL BRING A BRIEF PUSH OF WARM
ADVECTION BUT ANY NOTABLE WARMING DOES NOT LOOK TO OCCUR UNTIL MID
WEEK WHEN UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND THE
EASTERN TROUGH STARTS TO DE-AMPLIFY. SHOULD SEE SOME TEMP MODERATION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT AM WONDERING IF FORECAST HIGHS ARE A LITTLE
WARM...ESPECIALLY IF WE END UP WITH CLOUD COVER EITHER DAY. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT BEST RAIN CHANCES BUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
LOOKS BEST RIGHT NOW.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THE DAY.
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS BY LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
* CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE MID
AND LATE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOWER VIS LIKELY.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE THE TIMING OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS IS RESULTING IN A
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP AROUND 15 KT POSSIBLE.
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY
CONSOLIDATE AND SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE MID AND PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS WILL
LIFT A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS AND VISBYS...ESPECIALLY
BY THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE THREAT FOR
THUNDER WITH THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE LOW...BUT NOT
ZERO. MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THURSDAY...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
BEYOND THE CURRENT 30 HOUR TAF PERIOD...INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL THE CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TERMINALS LATER
THURSDAY IS MODERATE TO HIGH...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TIMING
IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS TIME.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* LOW WITH THUNDER POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
* MODERATE TO HIGH WITH THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT LOW TO MODERATE ON EXACT TIMING.
* LOW TO MODERATE WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER END MVFR CIGS BY EARLY
THURSDAY.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF TSRA. MVFR LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA LATE.
MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
226 PM CDT
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS GOING TO COME TO AN END TONIGHT...AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONGER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS HAVE
REMAINED SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT BUMP IN THE
GRADIENT CREATING OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT. WITH THE CONTINUED
SOUTHEAST FLOW...WAVES HAVE REMAINED ELEVATED IN THE ILLINOIS
NEARSHORE WATERS TO AROUND 2 TO 4 FT WHILE ALONG THE INDIANA
NEARSHORE WAVES ARE GENERALLY 1 TO 3 FT. AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AND A TIGHTENING GRADIENT IS
POISED TO INCREASE WINDS THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE THRU THUR. AS THE LOW
ARRIVES OVER NORTHERN IL THUR EVENING...IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF
GALES MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. AS
THIS LOW MOVES TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO WHILE STRENGTHENING...WITH
WINDS TO 30 KT LIKELY. A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHERN END
OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS WELL AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING OVER
THE LAKE WILL SUPPORT WINDS TO 30 KT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
WELL AS EVEN A PERIOD OF GALES POSSIBLE. THEN EXPECT A SLOW
DOWNWARD TREND IN SPEEDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1250 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
Updated the forecast to reflect the current trends for the showers
and thunderstorms approaching extreme western IL. Also tweaked the
sky cover and temperature forecast with convective debris clouds
advancing into parts of central IL this afternoon.
The latest surface analysis indicated a slow moving warm front
from western Iowa to extreme southeast Missouri. A southwesterly
low level jet was intersecting the front in central MO, keeping
convection developing on the southern end. The convection should
weaken as it moves eastward into the relatively drier air in west
central IL early this afternon. However, isolated showers and a few
rumbles of thunder can not be ruled out, particularly west of the
IL River valley early this afternoon and just west of the I-55
corridor toward sunset.
The HRRR, RAP and NAM models all indicate that as the warm front
slowly shifts northeast toward central IL tonight, an increasing
low level jet will once again produce several rounds of showers
and t-storms. Confidence is high in these scenarios for elevated
convection, so have bumped up PoPs in the entire forecast area
overnight and into Thursday, especially in west central and
central IL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
The upper-level ridge of high pressure that has brought much above
normal temperatures to the Midwest over the past several days will
slowly lose its influence today as a long-wave trough over the
western half of the CONUS begins to translate eastward. 07z/2am
water vapor imagery shows a series of short-waves embedded within
the parent trough, with a lead wave currently ejecting into
western Kansas/Nebraska and another wave further upstream over the
Great Basin. The first wave will lift N/NE today, remaining well
west of Illinois. As a result, convection associated with this
feature across eastern Kansas into central/western Iowa will track
mainly northward into Minnesota/Wisconsin as the day progresses.
Some models are suggesting that precip may reach the far western
KILX CWA by late afternoon: however, given dry airmass initially
in place and a continued easterly component to the wind, think
this is a bit too aggressive. Will therefore go with a dry
forecast across the board today. Skies will start out mostly
sunny, with a gradual increase in cloud cover during the afternoon
west of I-55. Thanks to the sunshine and winds veering to the
southeast, high temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower
80s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
Initial short-wave will pass to the W/NW of Illinois this evening,
while Great Basin feature ejects into the Plains and induces surface
cyclogenesis over the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles. As this low begins
to lift N/NE and airmass moistens, showers and thunderstorms will
develop across west-central Illinois during the evening then spread
eastward toward the Indiana border by Thursday morning. With best
forcing associated with the second wave remaining to the southwest
and forecast soundings still showing a dry layer below 850mb, have
opted to reduce PoPs to just chance along/west of I-55 this
evening. Think better rain chances will arrive mainly across the
western CWA after midnight, with areas further east near the Indiana
border likely staying dry through the entire night.
Low pressure over Oklahoma Thursday morning will track northeastward
into Wisconsin by Thursday night. As it does, it will drag a strong
cold front through central Illinois. Models have been trending
slightly slower with the front, with most solutions now showing
FROPA overnight Thursday. With strongest forcing for convection
staying to the west near the low and associated front, have focused
highest PoPs in the likely category across the western half of the
CWA on Thursday with only chance PoPs along/east of I-57. Will be
another warm day with highs ranging from the middle 70s far
northwest around Galesburg to the middle 80s along/south of I-70.
Main convective event still appears to be on track for Thursday
night as front interacts with an unseasonably moist airmass
characterized by precipitable water values in excess of 1.50. Given
ample deep-layer moisture and strong upper dynamics, will carry
categorical PoPs across the board. Latest Convective Outlook from
SPC suggests the potential for strong to severe storms Thursday
evening as a squall line develops along/ahead of the front.
Front will sweep into Indiana by Friday morning, with a few
lingering showers possible across the Wabash River Valley early in
the day. Main story on Friday will be the windy and much cooler
conditions. Due to a tightening pressure gradient and adequate
mixing, W/NW winds may gust to around 30mph at times. High
temperatures will mainly be in the 60s. An upper wave digging
southward out of Canada may trigger scattered showers across the
region Friday afternoon/night. Timing discrepancies still exist
among the models, so will only mention slight chance for showers
Friday night at this time. Once this feature passes, very cool and
dry conditions are anticipated this weekend. Coolest day will be
Saturday when highs will remain in the 50s and overnight lows will
dip into the upper 30s. After that, northwesterly flow will
prevail through the middle of next week, resulting in a
continuation of below normal temps. Airmass modification will
allow temps to slowly climb back into the upper 60s by Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
Increasing clouds and potential for showers and thunderstorms can
be expected in parts of central Illinois this afternoon, and
across all of central and eastern IL tonight.
Satellite and radar indicated that convection from NE Missouri and
SE Iowa continues to advance east-northeast, but weaken gradually.
Scattered showers can be expected along the IL river valley early
this afternoon, and toward the I-55 corridor just before dusk.
This activity will continue to weaken as it encounters dry air in
the mid-lower levels.
A slow moving warm front, which extended from western IA into
southeast MO around midday will slowly advance through central IL
tonight. The NAM, SREF, HRRR and RAP models are all in fairly good
agreement that an increasing southwesterly low level jet will
intersect this boundary and result in widespread showers and
elevated thunderstorms between 06-10z in west central IL, and
09-15z in eastern IL. This will result in MVFR visibility, but
have decided to hold off on MVFR ceilings for now until confidence
is greater in low level moisture fields.
Am expecting a break in the convection during much of the post
dawn hours in west central IL and by late morning in eastern IL as
the warm front continues to lift northeast and put the region in
the warm sector. Could see the beginnings of the next round of
scattered convection, ahead of a cold front, in western IL late
Thursday morning, but the best chances will be later Thursday
afternoon.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Miller
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Miller
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1057 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
328 AM CDT
A RANGE OF FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH FAIRLY
MILD CONDITIONS TO START WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN/THUNDER USHERING IN
TEMPERATURES MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. EARLY MORNING
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY SPINNING OVER
PENNSYLVANIA WITH A NARROW RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
OF GREATER NOTE IS A BROAD LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. ONE CLOSED UPPER LOW IS SPINNING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH A WEAKER
WAVE MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ANOTHER WAVE IS
DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WILL BE A KEY PLAYER IN OUR
WEATHER GOING INTO THURSDAY/FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IS SPREAD FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOCAL AREA WITH A
STRONG LOW MOVING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
TODAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST TODAY RESULTING IN A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND. WINDS LOOK TO BE
LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE LAKE TO TURN WINDS MORE EASTERLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SO WHILE HIGHS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL
WARM INTO THE 70S...WARMEST WEST AND SOUTH...LAKESHORE AREAS OF NE
IL WILL LIKELY BE HELD INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. NW INDIANA LAKEFRONT
AREAS MAY BE SPARED THE EXTRA COOLING UNLESS WINDS ARE ABLE TO TURN
NORTHEAST. STRATUS MAY BE LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH MID MORNING BUT SHOULD LIFT TO THE NORTH BY LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LOOK TO THICKEN ACROSS NORTHWEST
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...THINGS START TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE TONIGHT AS THE
NORTHERNMOST UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND A SERIES OF
WEAKER WAVES CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
MOVE NORTHEAST AND ACT ON THE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL PUSH BANDS OF SHOWERS
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE FORCING IS NOT TERRIBLY
COHERENT AS IT SPREADS IN EARLY THIS EVENING SO WILL KEEP POPS
LOW...BUT FORCING FOCUSES OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN BEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH LESS COVERAGE
EAST. ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED BUT STILL PRESENT
OVERNIGHT SO WILL INCLUDE THUNDER MENTION MAINLY OVERNIGHT. OVERALL
ACTIVITY LOOKS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BE THE MAIN PERIOD FOR
RAIN/THUNDER AS THE UPPER WAVE NOW MOVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
HELPS AMPLIFY THE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN AS IT REACHES THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS AND CROSSES THE AREA
DURING THE DAY WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THURSDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF
WAVES WILL NEED TO BE REFINED BUT RIGHT NOW THE MAIN PERIOD FOR
ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY MAY SPREAD INTO THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF THE LOW LOOKS TO BE FILLED WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
PRECIP. FOCUSED FORCING LOOKS TO BE HELD BACK ACROSS
MISSOURI/OKLAHOMA/KANSAS DURING THE DAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
KICKING THE SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS NW MISSOURI LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A LINE OF STORMS TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EVENING. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW FAR
WEST OF THE AREA THE LOW TRACKS WITH A FURTHER WEST TRACK...AS SOME
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING...LEADING TO A BETTER SEVERE THREAT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA THANKS TO A MORE ROBUST WARM SECTOR AND GREATER
INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO HELP MAINTAIN AN INCOMING SQUALL LINE
DURING THE EVENING. STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN
SEVERE THREAT. HEAVY RAINFALL IS A CONCERN AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES PUSH 1.6 OR 1.7 INCHES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH LOOK LIKELY WITH THE EXTENT OF STRONGER
CONVECTION DICTATING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED 2+ INCHES. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WOULD BE THAT THE WAVES OF PRECIP LOOK TO BE MOVING STEADILY.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF PRECIP
WAVES AND CLOUD COVER BUT WITH THE AREA GETTING INTO THE WARM SECTOR
AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP LOOKING TO BE LOWEST DURING THE DAY HIGHS MAY
WARM WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST WITH
GUIDANCE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE IT WILL BE BY 12Z FRIDAY.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN CWA IF NOT HAVING ALREADY
DONE SO BY FRIDAY MORNING SO SOME LINGERING CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE
EAST. A REINFORCING UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE IN FROM CANADA AND CLOSE
OFF BEFORE DROPPING RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL SPREAD IN AS ALL OF THIS OCCURS WITH H85
TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR 0C BY EVENING WITH A GUSTY WEST WIND. IN
ADDITION WITH THE UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA SHOWERS ARE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. BETWEEN THE COLD
ADVECTION AND INCREASING SHOWER POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPS WILL PROBABLY
OCCUR EARLY THEN FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS EXPECT LOW TO MID
50S IF NOT COOLER BY EVENING FOR ALL AREAS...WITH LOWS FALLING TO
AROUND 40 AWAY FROM THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS AND CLOUD
KEEPING MAX COOLING FROM OCCURRING. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE
EAST SATURDAY MORNING BUT EXPECT A DRY DAY BEYOND THAT WITH A SUN
AND CLOUD MIX. HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
WITH BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION THANKS
TO WHAT WILL HAVE EVOLVED INTO A MASSIVE BROAD UPPER LOW OVER
ONTARIO...THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR SHORTWAVES TO PASS ALONG WITH
BOUTS OF CLOUD COVER. AS A RESULT MAX COOLING MAY BE TEMPERED ONCE
AGAIN BUT STILL EXPECT UPPER 30S FOR MOST AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT
BRINGING AT LEAST PATCHY FROST POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE BIG UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE
INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY AS IT WILL BE REINFORCED A FEW TIMES BY WAVES
PUSHING INTO FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL BRING A FEW ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH SOME CONSISTENCY IN A WAVE PASSING LATER
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. EACH WAVE WILL BRING A BRIEF PUSH OF WARM
ADVECTION BUT ANY NOTABLE WARMING DOES NOT LOOK TO OCCUR UNTIL MID
WEEK WHEN UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND THE
EASTERN TROUGH STARTS TO DE-AMPLIFY. SHOULD SEE SOME TEMP MODERATION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT AM WONDERING IF FORECAST HIGHS ARE A LITTLE
WARM...ESPECIALLY IF WE END UP WITH CLOUD COVER EITHER DAY. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT BEST RAIN CHANCES BUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
LOOKS BEST RIGHT NOW.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH PERIOD 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THE DAY.
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP THIS EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THUNDER POSSIBLE.
RODRIGUEZ/KB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LOW STRATUS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY PUSH NORTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS
THIS MORNING...WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE FAR
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD SHIELD JUST NORTH OF ORD. THESE CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
STAYING UNDER 10KT BUT DO ANTICIPATE THIS TO CHANGE BY AROUND THE
14Z TIME FRAME...WHEN SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE AROUND THE 10KT RANGE
AND REMAIN THIS WAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS SOUTHEAST WIND
WILL HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT LIKELY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER WILL
INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS UPSTREAM FORCING WILL ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT TO THE CURRENT AREA OF PRECIP OVER IOWA.
THIS PRECIP WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY REACHING THE RFD
AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD
PUSH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY AXIS
CURRENTLY RESIDES WELL WEST OF THE TERMINALS...THIS WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST AS WELL. CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO PREVAILING THUNDER
POTENTIAL IS LOWER DUE TO QUESTIONS TO THE EXTENT OF THIS EASTWARD
PUSH OF THE BETTER INSTABILITY...AND HIGHER WITH SHOWER CHANCES.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR THUNDER AND SO HAVE INCLUDED IN THE TAF
WITH THE PROB30 GROUP.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH PRECIP TRENDS.
RODRIGUEZ/KB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF TSRA. MVFR LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA LATE.
MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
306 AM CDT
BOTH WINDS AND WAVES HAVE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH/SUBSIDE EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS THE SURFACE FIELD HAS RELAXED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SPANNING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST NORTHEAST TO QUEBEC. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY
WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS LIFTS NORTH INTO
CANADA...AND WHILE A SEPARATE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE PATTERN OVER THE LAKE
DURING THIS TIME WILL TRY AND TIGHTEN UP THROUGH THE DAY BUT WILL
ONLY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS MORE TOWARDS 10 TO 20 KT...AS
SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTH LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS
SPEED AND DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS NORTHEAST REACHING THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL LIKELY RAMP
UP QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS LOW MOVES TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO
WHILE STRENGTHENING...WITH WINDS TO 30 KT LIKELY. A VERY TIGHT
GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS WELL
AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING OVER THE LAKE WILL SUPPORT WINDS TO 30
KT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS EVEN A PERIOD OF GALES
POSSIBLE. THEN EXPECT A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN SPEEDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1045 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
Updated the forecast to reflect the current trends for the showers
and thunderstorms approaching extreme western IL. Also tweaked the
sky cover and temperature forecast with convective debris clouds
advancing into parts of central IL this afternoon.
The latest surface analysis indicated a slow moving warm front
from western Iowa to extreme southeast Missouri. A southwesterly
low level jet was intersecting the front in central MO, keeping
convection developing on the southern end. The convection should
weaken as it moves eastward into the relatively drier air in west
central IL early this afternon. However, isolated showers and a few
rumbles of thunder can not be ruled out, particularly west of the
IL River valley early this afternoon and just west of the I-55
corridor toward sunset.
The HRRR, RAP and NAM models all indicate that as the warm front
slowly shifts northeast toward central IL tonight, an increasing
low level jet will once again produce several rounds of showers
and t-storms. Confidence is high in these scenarios for elevated
convection, so have bumped up PoPs in the entire forecast area
overnight and into Thursday, especially in west central and
central IL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
The upper-level ridge of high pressure that has brought much above
normal temperatures to the Midwest over the past several days will
slowly lose its influence today as a long-wave trough over the
western half of the CONUS begins to translate eastward. 07z/2am
water vapor imagery shows a series of short-waves embedded within
the parent trough, with a lead wave currently ejecting into
western Kansas/Nebraska and another wave further upstream over the
Great Basin. The first wave will lift N/NE today, remaining well
west of Illinois. As a result, convection associated with this
feature across eastern Kansas into central/western Iowa will track
mainly northward into Minnesota/Wisconsin as the day progresses.
Some models are suggesting that precip may reach the far western
KILX CWA by late afternoon: however, given dry airmass initially
in place and a continued easterly component to the wind, think
this is a bit too aggressive. Will therefore go with a dry
forecast across the board today. Skies will start out mostly
sunny, with a gradual increase in cloud cover during the afternoon
west of I-55. Thanks to the sunshine and winds veering to the
southeast, high temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower
80s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
Initial short-wave will pass to the W/NW of Illinois this evening,
while Great Basin feature ejects into the Plains and induces surface
cyclogenesis over the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles. As this low begins
to lift N/NE and airmass moistens, showers and thunderstorms will
develop across west-central Illinois during the evening then spread
eastward toward the Indiana border by Thursday morning. With best
forcing associated with the second wave remaining to the southwest
and forecast soundings still showing a dry layer below 850mb, have
opted to reduce PoPs to just chance along/west of I-55 this
evening. Think better rain chances will arrive mainly across the
western CWA after midnight, with areas further east near the Indiana
border likely staying dry through the entire night.
Low pressure over Oklahoma Thursday morning will track northeastward
into Wisconsin by Thursday night. As it does, it will drag a strong
cold front through central Illinois. Models have been trending
slightly slower with the front, with most solutions now showing
FROPA overnight Thursday. With strongest forcing for convection
staying to the west near the low and associated front, have focused
highest PoPs in the likely category across the western half of the
CWA on Thursday with only chance PoPs along/east of I-57. Will be
another warm day with highs ranging from the middle 70s far
northwest around Galesburg to the middle 80s along/south of I-70.
Main convective event still appears to be on track for Thursday
night as front interacts with an unseasonably moist airmass
characterized by precipitable water values in excess of 1.50. Given
ample deep-layer moisture and strong upper dynamics, will carry
categorical PoPs across the board. Latest Convective Outlook from
SPC suggests the potential for strong to severe storms Thursday
evening as a squall line develops along/ahead of the front.
Front will sweep into Indiana by Friday morning, with a few
lingering showers possible across the Wabash River Valley early in
the day. Main story on Friday will be the windy and much cooler
conditions. Due to a tightening pressure gradient and adequate
mixing, W/NW winds may gust to around 30mph at times. High
temperatures will mainly be in the 60s. An upper wave digging
southward out of Canada may trigger scattered showers across the
region Friday afternoon/night. Timing discrepancies still exist
among the models, so will only mention slight chance for showers
Friday night at this time. Once this feature passes, very cool and
dry conditions are anticipated this weekend. Coolest day will be
Saturday when highs will remain in the 50s and overnight lows will
dip into the upper 30s. After that, northwesterly flow will
prevail through the middle of next week, resulting in a
continuation of below normal temps. Airmass modification will
allow temps to slowly climb back into the upper 60s by Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
Expect VFR conditions all day today with increasing high clouds
this afternoon as showers and storms advance gradually eastward
across N Missouri and E Iowa. That initial wave will primarily
lift toward S Wisconsin, with residual lift moving east into
western Illinois. Showers and storms should hold off near the
terminal sites until 02z for PIA and SPI, advancing slowly east
toward CMI after 09z. The best chances for steady rains will be
for PIA and SPI late tonight where synoptic scale lift appears to
be strongest in time-section analysis. MVFR clouds could develop
once the showers and storms reach any TAF site, but we kept VFR
clouds for now.
Winds will remain primarily southeast today in the 7 to 12kt
range. The cold frontal passage is not expected until Thursday
evening, so south to southeast winds will continue for much of the
next two days.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Miller
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
329 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
Spring like conditions driving an early October forecast today as
severe storms have developed over southeastern Kansas and west
central Missouri. Earlier clouds and showers over eastern Kansas
gave way to clearing early and then afternoon cumulus clouds as
daytime heating ensued. Diffuse boundary / surface trof still
appears to extend from near Newton Kansas northeast through Council
Grove and into Wabaunsee county. Morning and afternoon soundings
continue to show an unstable atmosphere, but low level winds in the
surface trof have weakened through the day. Dewpoints near 70
continue to move northward into the counties south of the
interstate.
Conditional severe threat remains for east central Kansas. Lack of a
strong forcing mechanism over our area makes forecast more
difficult. However storms to the south have mid level energy moving
into SE Kansas and NE Oklahoma, and hodographs going straight in the
mid levels favor splits, with left movers approaching our south CWA
edge at this time. Primary threat from these storms will be large
hail and winds, although with outflow boundaries moving out of the
southern and eastern storms, will need to watch for tornado threat
as well. Worth mentioning these storms are producing considerable
lightning and locally heavy rainfall. That said, the better
conditions come together primarily for the counties along and SE of
the turnpike where the watch is now in place. As the low level jet
increases later this evening, may see additional strengthening if
storms develop in south central Kansas and move into our southeast
as the latest HRRR would suggest.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
Main upper trough axis ejects eastward into the central plains on
Thursday. The sfc low is progged to deepen through the day as it
phases with the upper wave. Showers and thunderstorms from the
overnight period will have made its way into north central KS by
Thurs. morning. A decent 30 to 40 kt h85 jet may also support
additional convection forming over east central KS. Through the day
on Thursday, the main frontal boundary continues to trend more
progressive in pushing east of the CWA by 00Z Friday. Dependent on
mesoscale factors such as if and when morning convection in the east
can clear out and where the boundary sets up by peak heating may
form a few strong to severe storms in the late afternoon. Far
eastern KS should see the best chances for severe weather with
mainly high wind and large hail the primary hazards. Localized
flooding may also pose a hazard for the entire area with an average
of 0.5 to 2.5 inches of rainfall in the past 24 hours. Convection
clears east Thursday evening as a stronger upper wave plunges
southeast into the Great Lakes region. Strengthening mid and low
level wind field pickup sfc speeds from the northwest between 20 and
25 mph sustained on Friday. Consensus operational guidance is
hinting on a weak wave traversing through the mean flow across
northeast Kansas on Friday. While model soundings do not show ample
low level moisture, included a low end chance for showers. The main
story through the weekend will be strong subsidence and cold air
advection as highs fall Friday from the 70s to the 60s for Saturday.
May need frost headlines for Saturday AM as trends with h85 temps
continue to fall near 0C. Have lowered low temps down into the
middle and lower 30s area wide.
Extended period remains quiet and dry as northwest flow and blocking
ridge holds over the western CONUS. Airmass modulates back with
highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Another digging trough over
the Great Lakes region may push weak embedded waves southward into
the region on Wednesday where slight chances for precip were
mentioned.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
Kept similar as previous forecast with best chances for
thunderstorms actually occurring at a TAF site in the early
morning hours. In the meantime there should be storms near taf
sites late afternoon, and will then be followed by more widespread
showers and storms moving across eastern Kansas in the morning,
when prevailing mvfr rain/cigs more likely to move in.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...67
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
151 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED STRONG TROUGH
MOVING INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. AT THE SFC...FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH FRONT DRAPED FROM KLBL TO
KMCI.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL CENTER AROUND
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS
IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WHILE SEEING CURRENT DRY AIR IN THE AREA
DOES CAUSE SOME CONCERN ON PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BULK OF NEAR TERM
MODELS ALL INDICATE A TAP OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING NEAR SFC FRONT
AND INTERACTING WITH ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE THIS EVENING. MIXING
RATIOS IN THIS PLUME ARE HIGH AND WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
EXPECT A DECENT RESPONSE TO PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS.
SOMEWHAT SURPRISED BY CONSISTENCY OF QPF OUTPUT FROM AVAILABLE
DATA SOURCES AND AM COMFORTABLE INCREASING GENERAL AMOUNTS TO 0.25
TO 0.75 AT MOST LOCATIONS. CHOSE NOT TO GO ON THE HIGH END OF
PRECIPITATION THOUGH...DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS OVER
MOISTURE QUALITY. FORCING WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNRISE AS DEEP
CAA TAKES OVER. SURPRISINGLY...SOME LOW TOPPED INSTABILITY DOES
EXIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SO A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS APPEAR
WARRANTED.
OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE WINDS BEHIND STRONG COLD
FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. 12Z NAM AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE THE RAP INDICATE STRONG 3 HR PRESSURE RISES IN EXCESS OF
6MB AS FRONT PASSES. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT. PLAYED UP WINDS A
BIT IN THE FORECAST...BUT UNTIL STRONG PRESSURE RISES/GUSTS BECOME
MORE APPARENT IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA PLAN ON HOLDING OFF ON ANY
HIGHLIGHTS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...
A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
ALONG WITH FRONT END OF H3 JET ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING I DECIDED TO
KEEP 20 POPS ACROSS NW PART OF CWA THURSDAY NIGHT DESPITE LIMITED
MOISTURE PROFILES. STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY OR ADVISORY WINDS (45 MPH)
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVERNIGHT. NAM IN PARTICULAR SHOWS
6HR PRESSURE RISES IN EXCESS OF 10MB WHICH IS CONCERNING AND COULD
INDICATE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF WARNING CRITERIA WINDS. IF THERE IS
VIRGA OR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MAY ALSO HELP MIX STRONGER WINDS TO
THE SURFACE. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON HEADLIGHTS...BUT THIS NEEDS
TO BE MONITORED.
GRADIENT RELAXES FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL JET AND
TROUGH AXIS MOVE EAST...HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL STRONG WINDS ALOFT
OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. PROFILES WOULD LIMIT
MIXING TO BELOW WHERE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE FRIDAY DESPITE
SUNNY CONDITIONS...SO ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SEEM UNLIKELY DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. SHOULD STILL BE WINDY...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
VERY COOL AIR MASS SETTLES INTO REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IF
IT WASNT FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AIR
MASS WOULD HAVE SUPPORTED A HARD FREEZE (LOOKS LIKE WELL LUCK OUT).
CLEAR SKIES...LOW TD...AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE
MODERATING AS A RIDGE OVER THE SW US BEGINS TO BUILD EAST. MOST OF
THE CWA SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING...THOUGH PATCHY FROST WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHERE OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 33-35F RANGE ARE EXPECTED.
SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY...
GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS WESTERN US
WITH MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM SHIFTING WELL NORTH AND EAST OF
CWA. ECMWF IS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND CLOSE
UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES POSSIBLY BRINGING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
BACK TO NORTHERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS OUR CWA. THERE
ISNT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY ON THIS WEAK FEATURE BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLES SO I KEPT SUN/SUN NIGHT DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THESE PERIODS WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
LOWER 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS.
CONSENSUS/MODEL BLEND SEEMED APPROPRIATE...SO LITTLE CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS STORMS MARCH ACROSS THE
AREA. PERIOD OF POST FRONTAL LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH SUNRISE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
139 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED STRONG TROUGH
MOVING INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. AT THE SFC...FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH FRONT DRAPED FROM KLBL TO
KMCI.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL CENTER AROUND
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS
IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WHILE SEEING CURRENT DRY AIR IN THE AREA
DOES CAUSE SOME CONCERN ON PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BULK OF NEAR TERM
MODELS ALL INDICATE A TAP OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING NEAR SFC FRONT
AND INTERACTING WITH ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE THIS EVENING. MIXING
RATIOS IN THIS PLUME ARE HIGH AND WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
EXPECT A DECENT RESPONSE TO PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS.
SOMEWHAT SURPRISED BY CONSISTENCY OF QPF OUTPUT FROM AVAILABLE
DATA SOURCES AND AM COMFORTABLE INCREASING GENERAL AMOUNTS TO 0.25
TO 0.75 AT MOST LOCATIONS. CHOSE NOT TO GO ON THE HIGH END OF
PRECIPITATION THOUGH...DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS OVER
MOISTURE QUALITY. FORCING WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNRISE AS DEEP
CAA TAKES OVER. SURPRISINGLY...SOME LOW TOPPED INSTABILITY DOES
EXIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SO A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS APPEAR
WARRANTED.
OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE WINDS BEHIND STRONG COLD
FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. 12Z NAM AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE THE RAP INDICATE STRONG 3 HR PRESSURE RISES IN EXCESS OF
6MB AS FRONT PASSES. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT. PLAYED UP WINDS A
BIT IN THE FORECAST...BUT UNTIL STRONG PRESSURE RISES/GUSTS BECOME
MORE APPARENT IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA PLAN ON HOLDING OFF ON ANY
HIGHLIGHTS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S. LACK OF FORCING AND JET WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS STORMS MARCH ACROSS THE
AREA. PERIOD OF POST FRONTAL LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH SUNRISE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1200 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE
PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. BROAD TROUGH IS OVER MOST OF
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS LEAVES THE AREA IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS MOVING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC.
MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL AND AT MID LEVELS. THE NAM
WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE AND WIND FIELD. MODELS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED OUT A
LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE FOG AND STRATUS
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED. LITTLE CLOUD COVER ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE IN THE EASTERN SIX COUNTIES. THE
SMALL SCALE MODELS HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THIS WELL WITH THE HRRR VERY
CLOSE.
SO NOT ONLY HAVE INCREASED/EXPANDED COVERAGE AND EXTENT...BUT HAVE
ALSO HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN SIX
COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z. NOW TO THE PRECIPITATION. DURING THE
MORNING THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF STRONG UPPER JET MOVES FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AND BY 18Z WILL BE AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON IT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST WITH THE LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
UPPER JET KEEPS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND SOME KIND OF JET
LIFT AFFECTS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF EITHER A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
OR A COUPLE JET STRUCTURE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE WESTERN END OF OUR BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OLD FRONT IS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND
SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AND MORE STABLE OVER THE AREA UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND HAVE CONFINED THEM TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
ALL MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT ALONG WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE NEGATIVE AND WILL ALLOW FOR
A STRONG RESPONSE TO THE LIFT. RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH MOST
IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA RECEIVING RAINFALL. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT
GREAT WITH CAPE BELOW 1000. HOWEVER SHEAR IS VERY GOOD AND MAY
COMPENSATE FOR THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PRESSURE RISES NEAR
5 MB WILL SUPPORT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WHAT COULD ENHANCE THIS THREAT IS THE EXPECTED COLD POOL
GENERATE BY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIFT LOOK TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION GOING UNTIL LATE IN THE MORNING. BREEZY WINDS IN THE
MORNING SHOULD DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MODELS ARE NOW
STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH POTENT UPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE
NIGHT.
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF UPPER JETS AND SOUTHERN END OF ABOVE
MENTIONED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY NORTHERN AND
EASTERN LOCATIONS...DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
JET LIFT AND STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACTING ON LOW
THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. SO
ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES APPROACHING 10 MB SHOULD ALLOW
FOR WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER JET AXIS IS NEAR/OVER THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE DAY. BY 18Z THIS JET MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. ALSO
STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF SUN TO ALLOW SOME MIXING
TO OCCUR. WINDS AT 700 MB RANGE FROM 40 KNOTS TO 55 KNOTS. HOWEVER
MODELS ARE NOT MIXING TO THIS HEIGHT DUE TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE POOR
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS AT THIS TIME. AT THE
VERY LEAST WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER IF BETTER MIXING OCCURS WARNING CRITERIA COULD BE MET...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COOL...MOSTLY FROM THE MIDDLE 50S
TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...SOME GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER THAN THAT. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NOT GETTING VERY WARM AND
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
DEWPOINTS...THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON COULD BE
REACHED. PATCHY FROST COULD BE POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S. LACK OF FORCING AND JET WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS STORMS MARCH ACROSS THE
AREA. PERIOD OF POST FRONTAL LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH SUNRISE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
550 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE
PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. BROAD TROUGH IS OVER MOST OF
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS LEAVES THE AREA IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS MOVING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC.
MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL AND AT MID LEVELS. THE NAM
WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE AND WIND FIELD. MODELS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED OUT A
LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE FOG AND STRATUS
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED. LITTLE CLOUD COVER ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE IN THE EASTERN SIX COUNTIES. THE
SMALL SCALE MODELS HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THIS WELL WITH THE HRRR VERY
CLOSE.
SO NOT ONLY HAVE INCREASED/EXPANDED COVERAGE AND EXTENT...BUT HAVE
ALSO HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN SIX
COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z. NOW TO THE PRECIPITATION. DURING THE
MORNING THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF STRONG UPPER JET MOVES FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AND BY 18Z WILL BE AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON IT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST WITH THE LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
UPPER JET KEEPS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND SOME KIND OF JET
LIFT AFFECTS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF EITHER A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
OR A COUPLE JET STRUCTURE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE WESTERN END OF OUR BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OLD FRONT IS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND
SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AND MORE STABLE OVER THE AREA UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND HAVE CONFINED THEM TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
ALL MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT ALONG WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE NEGATIVE AND WILL ALLOW FOR
A STRONG RESPONSE TO THE LIFT. RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH MOST
IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA RECEIVING RAINFALL. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT
GREAT WITH CAPE BELOW 1000. HOWEVER SHEAR IS VERY GOOD AND MAY
COMPENSATE FOR THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PRESSURE RISES NEAR
5 MB WILL SUPPORT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WHAT COULD ENHANCE THIS THREAT IS THE EXPECTED COLD POOL
GENERATE BY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIFT LOOK TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION GOING UNTIL LATE IN THE MORNING. BREEZY WINDS IN THE
MORNING SHOULD DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MODELS ARE NOW
STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH POTENT UPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE
NIGHT.
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF UPPER JETS AND SOUTHERN END OF ABOVE
MENTIONED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY NORTHERN AND
EASTERN LOCATIONS...DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
JET LIFT AND STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACTING ON LOW
THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. SO
ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES APPROACHING 10 MB SHOULD ALLOW
FOR WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER JET AXIS IS NEAR/OVER THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE DAY. BY 18Z THIS JET MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. ALSO
STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF SUN TO ALLOW SOME MIXING
TO OCCUR. WINDS AT 700 MB RANGE FROM 40 KNOTS TO 55 KNOTS. HOWEVER
MODELS ARE NOT MIXING TO THIS HEIGHT DUE TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE POOR
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS AT THIS TIME. AT THE
VERY LEAST WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER IF BETTER MIXING OCCURS WARNING CRITERIA COULD BE MET...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COOL...MOSTLY FROM THE MIDDLE 50S
TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...SOME GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER THAN THAT. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NOT GETTING VERY WARM AND
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
DEWPOINTS...THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON COULD BE
REACHED. PATCHY FROST COULD BE POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S. LACK OF FORCING AND JET WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 532 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
VAD WIND PROFILE FOR KGLD SHOWS STRONG LOWER LEVEL JET OFF THE
GROUND...WHICH GIVES SOME CONCERN AS TO LLWS. RAP GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LOWER LEVEL JET SHOULD DECREASE IN STRENGTH LATER THIS
MORNING...SO ONLY MENTIONED LLWS FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE NEAR TERM.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS TO KGLD AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.
MODERATE TO HEAVY FOG HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF KMCK THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER LINGERING AREAS OF FOG VERY NEAR THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINAL WARRANTS AN MVFR VISIBILITY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN A FEW HOURS TOWARD
MID MORNING TO ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ003-004-
015-016-029.
CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
433 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE
PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. BROAD TROUGH IS OVER MOST OF
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS LEAVES THE AREA IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS MOVING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC.
MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL AND AT MID LEVELS. THE NAM
WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE AND WIND FIELD. MODELS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED OUT A
LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE FOG AND STRATUS
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED. LITTLE CLOUD COVER ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE IN THE EASTERN SIX COUNTIES. THE
SMALL SCALE MODELS HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THIS WELL WITH THE HRRR VERY
CLOSE.
SO NOT ONLY HAVE INCREASED/EXPANDED COVERAGE AND EXTENT...BUT HAVE
ALSO HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN SIX
COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z. NOW TO THE PRECIPITATION. DURING THE
MORNING THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF STRONG UPPER JET MOVES FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AND BY 18Z WILL BE AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON IT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST WITH THE LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
UPPER JET KEEPS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND SOME KIND OF JET
LIFT AFFECTS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF EITHER A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
OR A COUPLE JET STRUCTURE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE WESTERN END OF OUR BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OLD FRONT IS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND
SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AND MORE STABLE OVER THE AREA UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND HAVE CONFINED THEM TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
ALL MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT ALONG WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE NEGATIVE AND WILL ALLOW FOR
A STRONG RESPONSE TO THE LIFT. RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH MOST
IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA RECEIVING RAINFALL. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT
GREAT WITH CAPE BELOW 1000. HOWEVER SHEAR IS VERY GOOD AND MAY
COMPENSATE FOR THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PRESSURE RISES NEAR
5 MB WILL SUPPORT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WHAT COULD ENHANCE THIS THREAT IS THE EXPECTED COLD POOL
GENERATE BY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIFT LOOK TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION GOING UNTIL LATE IN THE MORNING. BREEZY WINDS IN THE
MORNING SHOULD DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MODELS ARE NOW
STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH POTENT UPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE
NIGHT.
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF UPPER JETS AND SOUTHERN END OF ABOVE
MENTIONED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY NORTHERN AND
EASTERN LOCATIONS...DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
JET LIFT AND STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACTING ON LOW
THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. SO
ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES APPROACHING 10 MB SHOULD ALLOW
FOR WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER JET AXIS IS NEAR/OVER THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE DAY. BY 18Z THIS JET MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. ALSO
STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF SUN TO ALLOW SOME MIXING
TO OCCUR. WINDS AT 700 MB RANGE FROM 40 KNOTS TO 55 KNOTS. HOWEVER
MODELS ARE NOT MIXING TO THIS HEIGHT DUE TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE POOR
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS AT THIS TIME. AT THE
VERY LEAST WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER IF BETTER MIXING OCCURS WARNING CRITERIA COULD BE MET...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COOL...MOSTLY FROM THE MIDDLE 50S
TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...SOME GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER THAN THAT. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NOT GETTING VERY WARM AND
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
DEWPOINTS...THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON COULD BE
REACHED. PATCHY FROST COULD BE POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S. LACK OF FORCING AND JET WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
ONLY CAUSE FOR CONCERN IS SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOG AROUND KMCK. MOST GUIDANCE HINTS THAT
FOG REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF TERMINAL BUT IT IS A LITTLE CLOSE FOR
COMFORT. PLACED A 6SM BR/SCT015 GROUP AS A HEDGE FOR NOW AND WILL
REFINE THIS GROUP AT THE 06Z RUN. OTHER THAN THAT...EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH PERIODS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ003-004-
015-016-029.
CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
202 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INPUT PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR LOCATIONS
EAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO GOVE KANSAS. LIGHT
WINDS...MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT AND COOLER AIR ADVECTING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT. SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE DENSE
FOG IS POSSIBLE SO WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHER PLAINS WITH CLOSED CENTER OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO AND COULD BE IN LINE TO IMPACT OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM JUST EAST OF KMCK SOUTH
ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALON THE CO/KS STATE LINE.
WITH FRONT STILL OVER PAR OF THE CWA I CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA
WHERE ML CAPE 500-1500 J/KG IS LINGERING. SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED
ANY CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT SO FAR...AND GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY THREAT
REMAINING EAST AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED BY NAM TO PASS OVER CWA TONIGHT
COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH CONSIDERING
LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. OTHER GUIDANCE IS FAVORING DRY
CONDITIONS...SO DECIDED TO JUST KEEP MINIMAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
PLACE 06-12Z PERIOD. NAM/RAP/SREF HINTING AT STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN CWA WITH MOISTURE POOLING NEAR FRONTAL
ZONE. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS AS MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING AND COULD LIMIT FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHIFTING FRONT FURTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY...LIMITING
SEVERE POTENTIAL AND BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. CURRENTLY THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TO BE AS FORCING
INCREASES FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. I
LIMITED 30-40 POPS TO THE LATE AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTHWEST. I KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
DUE TO BUILDING INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST WEAK FORCING BEHIND FRONTAL
ZONE...THOUGH I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF WE REMAIN DRY UNTIL MAIN
PUSH COMES IN LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S. LACK OF FORCING AND JET WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
ONLY CAUSE FOR CONCERN IS SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOG AROUND KMCK. MOST GUIDANCE HINTS THAT
FOG REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF TERMINAL BUT IT IS A LITTLE CLOSE FOR
COMFORT. PLACED A 6SM BR/SCT015 GROUP AS A HEDGE FOR NOW AND WILL
REFINE THIS GROUP AT THE 06Z RUN. OTHER THAN THAT...EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH PERIODS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
224 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, LOCATED OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AT 00Z
WEDNESDAY, WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL END AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE PANHANDLE
OF TEXAS. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. 850MB
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. UPPER 80S NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. FURTHER NORTHWEST HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATER TODAY, A
WEDGE OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO WESTERN
KANSAS AS A EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND 850MB TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS BOTH IMPROVE BY EARLY
THIS EVENING NORTH OF THIS FRONT WESTERN KANSAS AS THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES CENTRAL COLORADO. 00Z NAM 0-6KM WIND SHEAR
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AT 21Z WEDNESDAY AND 00Z THURSDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 50 KNOTS WITH CAPE VALUES JUST NORTH OF OUR
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL RANGE FROM
1000 TO 2000 J/KG. THIS SUPPORTS THAT IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP
IN THIS AREA THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE ON
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IS NOT HIGH GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY LATE TODAY AND THAT THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS BY
LATE DAY WILL BE WEST OF THIS AREA AND BE CONFINED MAINLY EASTERN
COLORADO/EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS. STILL GIVEN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION IMPROVING EARLY TONIGHT NEAR THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AM STILL UNABLE TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL/NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPROVE AFTER
SUNSET ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BASED ON WHERE THE
700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WILL FAVOR THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT A
REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. 0-1 KM AGL MEAN WINDS FROM THE NAM BEHIND THIS
FRONT FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 30 TO NEAR 40 KNOTS FROM 09Z TO 12Z
THURSDAY. GFS ALSO HAD 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN
KANSAS AT 12Z THURSDAY IN THE 0-1KM LAYER. BASED ON THIS ALONG THE
THE LAYER AVERAGE MIXED LAYER WINDS AND EXPECTED COLD AIR
ADVECTION THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF WHEN WIND SPEEDS APPROACH 30
MPH OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WHERE THE BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. ELSEWHERE
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKED ON TRACK.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM
SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGHT SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PLACE SOUTHWEST KANSAS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY FROM FORMING.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE I-70
CORRIDOR TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER. LOWS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS THEN SLOWLY REBOUND
INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING A SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AROUND DAYBREAK AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. BASED ON THE DEPTH OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
NAM SOUNDINGS AND THE LATEST HRRR WILL INTRODUCE MVFR VISIBILITY
IN MIST AT ALL TAF SITES. AT HAYS WILL ALSO INSERT A PERIOD OF IFR
BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE A LESS THAN
10 KNOTS AND BY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.
THESE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY
LATE MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 82 53 70 46 / 10 30 30 0
GCK 81 51 69 44 / 10 60 20 0
EHA 80 48 69 45 / 10 20 20 0
LBL 82 52 70 46 / 10 20 20 0
HYS 80 52 66 42 / 10 70 40 10
P28 89 61 72 50 / 10 30 30 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
143 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, LOCATED OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AT 00Z
WEDNESDAY, WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL END AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE PANHANDLE
OF TEXAS. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. 850MB
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. UPPER 80S NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. FURTHER NORTHWEST HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATER TODAY, A
WEDGE OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO WESTERN
KANSAS AS A EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND 850MB TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS BOTH IMPROVE BY EARLY
THIS EVENING NORTH OF THIS FRONT WESTERN KANSAS AS THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES CENTRAL COLORADO. 00Z NAM 0-6KM WIND SHEAR
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AT 21Z WEDNESDAY AND 00Z THURSDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 50 KNOTS WITH CAPE VALUES JUST NORTH OF OUR
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL RANGE FROM
1000 TO 2000 J/KG. THIS SUPPORTS THAT IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP
IN THIS AREA THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE ON
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IS NOT HIGH GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY LATE TODAY AND THAT THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS BY
LATE DAY WILL BE WEST OF THIS AREA AND BE CONFINED MAINLY EASTERN
COLORADO/EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS. STILL GIVEN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THTA-E ADVECTION IMPROVING EARLY TONIGHT NEAR THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AM STILL UNABLE TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL/NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPROVE AFTER
SUNSET ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BASED ON WHERE THE
700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WILL FAVOR THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT A
REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. 0-1 KM AGL MEAN WINDS FROM THE NAM BEHIND THIS
FRONT FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 30 TO NEAR 40 KNOTS FROM 09Z TO 12Z
THURSDAY. GFS ALSO HAD 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN
KANSAS AT 12Z THURSDAY IN THE 0-1KM LAYER. BASED ON THIS ALONG THE
THE LAYER AVERAGE MIXED LAYER WINDS AND EXPECTED COLD AIR
ADVECTION THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF WHEN WIND SPEEDS APPROACH 30
MPH OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WHERE THE BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. ELSEWHERE
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKED ON TRACK.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE
MOVING EASTERLY TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HOWEVER, A GOOD
LOBE OF VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL DRAG THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. OUR NORTH AREAS NORTH OF I-70, AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS SUCH AS NEAR SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY, WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 50 PERCENT
RANGE, WHILE 25 TO 35 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OKLAHOMA BORDER BY
MIDNIGHT OR SO. QPF WILL NOT BE TOO HIGH, EXCEPT IN A FEW
STRONGER STORMS, DUE TO THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE
CONVECTION. THE CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL DECREASE TO THE EAST TO NEAR ZERO BY 20Z
OR MID DAY THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED NEARLY
THROUGH ALL OF OUR AREA BY THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY, BUT PLENTY
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE GOING FORECAST
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OF MID 60S IN HAYS TO LOWER 70S IN
MEDICINE LODGE SEEM APPROPRIATE. IT WILL BE WINDY THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT, AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
HOW COLD WILL IT GET THURSDAY NIGHT IS A GOOD QUESTION. WITH FRESHLY
WET GROUND AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH, LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S RANGE ALONG OUR
NORTHWEST BOUNDARY SUCH AS WAKEENEY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, AND
TO NEAR THE 50F DEGREE MARK IN THE COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREAS. NO PRECIPITATION IS FORESEEN BEYOND THURSDAY AT 20Z, AS
THE UPPER FLOW WILL GO STRONGLY NORTHWESTERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE ON FRIDAY AND BE CLOSE TO AS HIGHS WERE ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AS SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GO
LIGHT.
WITH NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALOFT, THE PERIOD SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL GO THROUGH A MILD WARMING TREND, REACHING THE
LOWER TO MID 80S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOTS OF SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PERIOD, AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING A SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AROUND DAYBREAK AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. BASED ON THE DEPTH OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
NAM SOUNDINGS AND THE LATEST HRRR WILL INTRODUCE MVFR VISIBILITY
IN MIST AT ALL TAF SITES. AT HAYS WILL ALSO INSERT A PERIOD OF IFR
BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE A LESS THAN
10 KNOTS AND BY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.
THESE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY
LATE MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 82 53 70 47 / 10 30 20 0
GCK 81 51 69 45 / 10 60 20 0
EHA 80 48 69 46 / 10 20 20 0
LBL 82 52 71 48 / 10 20 20 0
HYS 80 52 67 46 / 10 70 30 10
P28 89 61 73 50 / 10 30 30 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1216 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
AT 00Z WEDNESDAY A 500MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL COLORADO
AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS
ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 200MB JET STREAK.
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS WITH CONVECTION
EARLY THIS EVENING BEING LOCATED ALONG AND EAST OF THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY. AN 850MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND
850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z WEDNESDAY VARIED FROM +18C AT NORTH
PLATTE TO +23C AT AMARILLO. AT THE 700MB LEVEL A +4C TO +7C
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXTENDED FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO NORTHWEST
MISSOURI. FURTHER NORTH A 850MB COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM EAST
CENTRAL WYOMING TO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE A STRONG CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT
AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION. AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA, THE SURFACE TROUGH POSITIONED NEAR AND ALONG
THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S(F). ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL EXIST FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
EXIST TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. STORM INITIATION MAY BE AFFECTED DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG THE
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK LINGERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR, AND
MUCAPE VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG TO NEAR 1000 J/KG WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE QUICKLY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TONIGHT, LOOK FOR LOWS ONCE AGAIN DOWN INTO THE 60S(F). HOWEVER,
THE MID TO UPPER 50S(F) WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO THAT AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE ADVANCING SURFACE TROUGH. FOR WEDNESDAY, WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
THE NAM/GFS SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE 20C ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE UPPER TEENS(C) TO NEAR 20C ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT HIGHS UP INTO THE UPPER 70S(F) ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S(F) IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE
MOVING EASTERLY TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HOWEVER, A GOOD
LOBE OF VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL DRAG THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. OUR NORTH AREAS NORTH OF I-70, AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS SUCH AS NEAR SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY, WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 50 PERCENT
RANGE, WHILE 25 TO 35 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OKLAHOMA BORDER BY
MIDNIGHT OR SO. QPF WILL NOT BE TOO HIGH, EXCEPT IN A FEW
STRONGER STORMS, DUE TO THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE
CONVECTION. THE CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL DECREASE TO THE EAST TO NEAR ZERO BY 20Z
OR MID DAY THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED NEARLY
THROUGH ALL OF OUR AREA BY THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY, BUT PLENTY
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE GOING FORECAST
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OF MID 60S IN HAYS TO LOWER 70S IN
MEDICINE LODGE SEEM APPROPRIATE. IT WILL BE WINDY THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT, AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
HOW COLD WILL IT GET THURSDAY NIGHT IS A GOOD QUESTION. WITH FRESHLY
WET GROUND AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH, LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S RANGE ALONG OUR
NORTHWEST BOUNDARY SUCH AS WAKEENEY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, AND
TO NEAR THE 50F DEGREE MARK IN THE COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREAS. NO PRECIPITATION IS FORESEEN BEYOND THURSDAY AT 20Z, AS
THE UPPER FLOW WILL GO STRONGLY NORTHWESTERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE ON FRIDAY AND BE CLOSE TO AS HIGHS WERE ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AS SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GO
LIGHT.
WITH NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALOFT, THE PERIOD SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL GO THROUGH A MILD WARMING TREND, REACHING THE
LOWER TO MID 80S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOTS OF SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PERIOD, AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING A SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AROUND DAYBREAK AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. BASED ON THE DEPTH OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
NAM SOUNDINGS AND THE LATEST HRRR WILL INTRODUCE MVFR VISIBILITY
IN MIST AT ALL TAF SITES. AT HAYS WILL ALSO INSERT A PERIOD OF IFR
BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE A LESS THAN
10 KNOTS AND BY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.
THESE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY
LATE MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 54 70 47 71 / 30 20 0 0
GCK 51 69 45 71 / 50 20 0 0
EHA 50 69 46 72 / 30 20 0 0
LBL 53 71 48 73 / 20 20 0 0
HYS 53 67 46 67 / 50 30 10 0
P28 60 73 50 73 / 30 30 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1123 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1120 AM UPDATE: THE LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO BURN OFF IN
THE NORTH AND IS ONLY VERY SLOWLY ERODING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE. THEREFOR, BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR THESE AREAS IN THE NORTH INCLUDING
CARIBOU AND PRESQUE ISLE. BASED ON LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS, UPPER
AIR PLOTS, AND RAP DATA MORE WIDESPREAD CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS
IN THE NORTH DOES NOT LOOK TO OCCUR UNTIL AROUND 2PM OR SO. ALSO
ADJUSTED DOWN HOURLY TEMPS AND DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TODAY IN THE
NORTH DUE TO CLOUDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER FOR NRN AND CENTRAL MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ITS
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
A CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CLEARING
SKIES WILL BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE GFS/NAM/GEM/AND
ECMWF ALL INDICATE THAT THE LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY OR SLIGHTLY REGRESS TO THE NW THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
OF MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION FROM EASTERN QUEBEC.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS LABRADOR/NEWFOUNDLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING OCCLUDED FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS
LABRADOR/NEW NEWFOUNDLAND.
EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FRO SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT HEADING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKYS WILL ALLOW FOG TO SETTLE
BACK IN TOMORROW MRNG ACROSS NRN MAINE. MVFR IN BGR WILL BECOME
VFR AFTER MID MRNG. BKN CLD COVER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS FOR BHB WILL BECOME MVFR AFTER MID MRNG AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR WNDS FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM 10 AM TO
MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AN SCA FOR SEAS MAY
BE REQUIRED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SEAS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY HIGH AND NEAR SCA LEVELS THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING HEADING INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
433 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...PUSHING A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED JUST NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA. CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER PA WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT
E-NE TOWARDS SRN ENGLAND AND OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. RESULTANT LOW
LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL SHUNT A WEAK BACK DOOR SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
ONCE AGAIN NOTING SOME PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE
AREA THIS MORNING, INCLUDING SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN SPOTS
ACROSS THE SW PIEDMONT. AS NOTED YDA, LOCAL TRAFFIC CAMERAS
INDICATE THAT LOW VSBYS <1SM AREN`T TOO WIDESPREAD JUST YET...SO
AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAY
NEED TO GO WITH A NARROW DENSE FOG ADVY AREA TOWARDS DAWN IF DENSE
FOG APPEARS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.
AS WITH YDA, EXPECT LOW STRATUS INLAND WL BEGIN TO LIFT SLOWLY BY
MID-MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. KAKQ RADAR CONTINUES TO PICK UP SOME
VERY LGT SHRAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SOME VRY WEAK OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW POP THIS MORNING OVER
THE NE CWA...AND FOR THE AFTN OVER THE PIEDMONT AS THE HRRR IS
KEYING IN ON SOME VERY LIGHT OVERRUNNING MOISTURE/WEAK DVPA ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WHICH COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES OR LGT SHRAS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SUBSIDENCE AND SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WL BRING SOME SHORT LIVED CLEARING LATE THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT. FORECAST MAXIMA RANGE FROM MID TO U70S NORTH AND EASTERN
SHORE TO AROUND 80 SOUTHWEST UNDER A GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY.
E-NE FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT...AND ANOTHER PERIOD
OF LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU. BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE DRY
ABOVE H9 BUT ARE NEARLY SATURATED IN LOW LEVELS. COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE TNGT MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT, BUT W/ CHCS OF
ACCUMULATING PCPN QUITE LOW, WL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.
WENT WITH WARMER ENVELOPE OF NAM GUIDANCE FOR MINIMA TNGT WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED. LOWS GENERALLY U50S TO L60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RACING EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE
SOUTH INTO THE REGION FROM NEW ENGLAND. WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW CHC
POP THU MORNING AS LOW STRATUS/DZ ONCE AGAIN SCOURS OUT.
THEREAFTER, EXPECT VRB CLDS AND DRY WX THU. GGEM AND DOWNSCALE NAM
DO CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME VERY WEAK OVERRUNNING, BUT LIFT
APPEARS TOO SHALLOW TO YIELD MUCH MORE THAN SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHRAS/SPRINKLES, ORIENTED MAINLY WEST OF I-95. ONCE AGAIN, HV
OPTED TO GO DRY FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS THU MANLY FM THE MID 70S TO
ARND 80.
AFOREMENTIONED ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPR TROUGH RACING EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL DIG E-SE ACROSS THROUGH THE MIDWEST/TN VLY THU NGT AND
FRIDAY. E-SE FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCRSG MOISTURE AND OVC CONDITIONS
THU NGT AND FRIDAY AND SOME ISOLD SHRAS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE MOST WIDESPREAD PCPN ASSOCIATED W/ THE APPROACHING
STRONG CDFNT SHOULD REMAIN JUST W OF THE FA FRI AFTN. HI TEMPS FRI
FM THE M/U70S ON THE ERN SHR TO L80S ACRS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SE
VA/NE NC.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NE
INTO SE CANADA ON SUNDAY. STRONG JET ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FROPA AND WILL CARRY HIGH LIKELY
POPS. STRONG FORCING BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO FRIDAY EVENING, SO WILL INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST
AROUND 12Z SAT...W/ SHOWER CHANCES TO END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO
EAST SATURDAY MORNING. WILL LIMIT SHRA CHANCES ON SATURDAY
MORNING TO THE FAR EASTERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR DRY WX. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW LINGERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SPOKE OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS SATURDAY 70-75. COOLER
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 65-70. HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY 70-75.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS VARY FROM LIFR TO IFR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG. THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES AS OF 01/0730Z ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS RURAL AREAS OF
SCNTRL VA FROM GENERALLY KAKQ-KFKN-KEMV...WHERE AREAS OF LOCALLY
DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL BE IFR TO MVFR ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND UP INTO THE EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS OF 5-10KT
AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE KEEPING THE LOWER ATMOSHPERE MIXED...THUS
PREVENTING ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH SCT LOW
STRATUS. CONDITIONS MAY WORSEN BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE BUT SHOULD
IMPROVE 01/1300-1400Z. DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW ANY BREAKS IN
STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING TO FILL BACK IN BY THIS AFTN. LATE DAY
CLEARING IS EXPECTED JUST BEFORE SUNSET...HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW ANOTHER
INFLUX OF CLOUDS INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT (CIGS ABOVE 8 KFT AGL). DRY
WX IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY FRI BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EACH NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. STRENGTHENING WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE
FROPA SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN ADDITION TO MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL AT
TIMES.
&&
.MARINE...
N-NE WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AROUND 10 KT OR LESS EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN WATERS. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS PA AND THEN NE ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY...BEFORE PUSHING WELL OFF THE COAST ON
THURSDAY. WINDS TODAY THRU THURSDAY WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE N OR NE
AOB 15KT. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
WED...HIGHEST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. SWAN GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS TO
AROUND 5FT NEAR 20NM MORE AGGRESSIVELY THAN WAVEWATCH. DUE TO WEAK
CAA AND A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...HAVE KEPT 5FT SEAS JUST BEYOND THE 20NM MARK FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THEREFORE NO SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE S-SW FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH CROSSES
INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS THEN QUICKLY SWING AROUND TO THE
NW BEHIND THE FRONT BY SATURDAY AFTN. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE
FRI INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
414 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...PUSHING A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED JUST NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA. CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER PA WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT
E-NE TOWARDS SRN ENGLAND AND OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. RESULTANT LOW
LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL SHUNT A WEAK BACK DOOR SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
ONCE AGAIN NOTING SOME PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE
AREA THIS MORNING. NOTING SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN SPOTS ACROSS
THE SW PIEDMONT. AS NOTED YDA, LOCAL TRAFFIC CAMERAS INDICATING
THAT LOW VSBYS AREN`T TOO WIDESPREAD JUST YET...SO AN SPS HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR NOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAY NEED TO GO WITH A
NARROW DENSE FOG ADVY AREA TOWARDS DAWN IF DENSE FOG APPEARS MORE
WIDESPREAD. WENT WITH A FORECAST SIMILAR TO THAT OF YDA, WITH LOW
STRATUS INLAND LIFTING SLOWLY BY MIDDAY. KAKQ RADAR CONTINUES TO
PICK UP SOME VERY LGT SHRAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SOME VRY WEAK OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW POP THIS MORNING OVER THE
NE CWA...AND FOR THE AFTN OVER THE PIEDMONT AS THE HRRR IS KEYING
IN ON SOME VERY LIGHT OVERRUNNING MOISTURE/WEAK DVPA ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WHICH COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES OR LGT SHRAS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SUBSIDENCE AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WL BRING SOME SHORT LIVED CLEARING LATE THIS
AFTN AND TONIGHT. FORECAST MAXIMA RANGE FROM MID TO U70S NORTH
AND EASTERN SHORE TO AROUND 80 SOUTHWEST UNDER A GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
E-NE FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT...AND ANOTHER PERIOD
OF LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU. BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE DRY
ABOVE H9 BUT ARE NEARLY SATURATED IN LOW LEVELS. COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE TNGT MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT, BUT WL GO WITH
A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. WENT WITH WARMER NAM GUIDANCE WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED. LOWS GENERALLY U50S TO L60S.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RACING EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE
SOUTH INTO THE REGION FROM NEW ENGLAND. WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW CHC POP
THU MORNING AS LOW STRATUS/DZ ONCE AGAIN SCOURS OUT. THEREAFTER,
EXPECT VRB CLDS AND DRY WX THU. GGEM AND DOWNSCALE NAM DO CONTINUE
TO HINT AT SOME VERY WEAK OVERRUNNING, BUT LIFT APPEARS TOO SHALLOW
TO YIELD MUCH MORE THAN SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN MAINLY WEST OF I-95.
ACCORDINGLY, HV GONE DRY FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS THU MANLY FM THE MID
70S TO ARND 80.
AFOREMENTIONED ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPR TROUGH RACING EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL DIG E-SE ACROSS THROUGH THE MIDWEST/TN VLY THU NGT AND
FRIDAY. E-SE FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCRSG MOISTURE AND OVC CONDITIONS
THU NGT AND FRIDAY AND SOME ISOLD SHRAS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE MOST WIDESPREAD PCPN ASSOCIATED W/ THE APPROACHING
STRONG CDFNT SHOULD REMAIN JUST W OF THE FA FRI AFTN. HI TEMPS FRI
FM THE M/U70S ON THE ERN SHR TO L80S ACRS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SE
VA/NE NC.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NE
INTO SE CANADA ON SUNDAY. STRONG JET ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FROPA AND WILL CARRY HIGH LIKELY
POPS. STRONG FORCING BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO FRIDAY EVENING. WITH THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST AROUND 12Z SAT...SHOWER CHANCES WILL
QUICKLY COME TO AND END FROM WEST TO EAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WILL
LIMIT SHWR CHANCES ON SATURDAY MORNING TO THE FAR EASTERN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR DRY WX. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW LINGERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
SATURDAY 70-75. COOLER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 65-70. HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY
70-75.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS VARY FROM LIFR TO IFR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG. THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES AS OF 01/0730Z ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS RURAL AREAS OF
SCNTRL VA FROM GENERALLY KAKQ-KFKN-KEMV...WHERE AREAS OF LOCALLY
DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL BE IFR TO MVFR ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND UP INTO THE EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS OF 5-10KT
AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE KEEPING THE LOWER ATMOSHPERE MIXED...THUS
PREVENTING ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH SCT LOW
STRATUS. CONDITIONS MAY WORSEN BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE BUT SHOULD
IMPROVE 01/1300-1400Z. DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW ANY BREAKS IN
STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING TO FILL BACK IN BY THIS AFTN. LATE DAY
CLEARING IS EXPECTED JUST BEFORE SUNSET...HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW ANOTHER
INFLUX OF CLOUDS INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT (CIGS ABOVE 8 KFT AGL). DRY
WX IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY FRI BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EACH NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. STRENGTHENING WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE
FROPA SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN ADDITION TO MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL AT
TIMES.
&&
.MARINE...
N-NE WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AROUND 10 KT OR LESS EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN WATERS. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS PA AND THEN NE ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY...BEFORE PUSHING WELL OFF THE COAST ON
THURSDAY. WINDS TODAY THRU THURSDAY WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE N OR NE
AOB 15KT. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
WED...HIGHEST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. SWAN GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS TO
AROUND 5FT NEAR 20NM MORE AGGRESSIVELY THAN WAVEWATCH. DUE TO WEAK
CAA AND A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...HAVE KEPT 5FT SEAS JUST BEYOND THE 20NM MARK FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THEREFORE NO SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE S-SW FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH CROSSES
INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS THEN QUICKLY SWING AROUND TO THE
NW BEHIND THE FRONT BY SATURDAY AFTN. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE
FRI INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
354 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE SPELL OF THE STRONG
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN QUEBEC AND
CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH A SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING BACK
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT A
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW TROPOSPHERE FEED INTO THE STATE DESPITE A WEAK
MIDLEVEL RIDGE SLIDING OVERHEAD. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
ESSENTIALLY CAUSE THE PATTERN LOCALLY TO REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...DISALLOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADVECTIONS OR AIRMASS
TURNOVER. CLOUD TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SLUGGISH IN MANY
AREAS WITH A TRANSITION FROM STRATUS TO CUMULOFORM. THERE HAS BEEN A
RAPID CLEARING TREND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
BUT SUSPECT THIS TO SLOW DOWN AND NOT MAKE MUCH INROADS TO
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN BEFORE SUNDOWN. INSTEAD...EXPECT VERTICAL
CLOUD CIRCULATIONS TO DEEPEN YET OVER THE NEXT 4 HOURS WHICH WILL
SUPPORT GREATER CONVECTIVE ELEMENT SPACING AND INTRODUCE GREATER
CLOUD SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
SET THE STAGES FOR A RAPID CLEARING TREND IN MANY AREAS POST SUNSET
WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING.
NAM AND LATEST HRRR NWP IS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF FOG TONIGHT WITH A
MUCH BETTER PROFILE FOR NEAR SURFACE SATURATION IN COMPARISON TO
YESTERDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LACK OF ADVECTIONS ALONG
WITH THE CONTINUATION OF GREENUP ACROSS THE AREA...HIGH AMBIENT
MOISTURE IN THE BACKGROUND SHOULD SUPPORT FOG FAIRLY EARLY
TONIGHT...I.E. SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF ONTARIO...PORT HURON AND THE EASTERN
THUMB BEFORE SPREADING WESTWARD. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A SIGNAL
THAT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERRAIN IN HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE
AREAS COULD VERY WELL BE A FAVORABLE ZONE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN
THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE...DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT 100 PERCENT AS IT SELDOM IS...AND WILL GIVE LATER SHIFTS THE
FLEXIBILITY ON ANY POSSIBLE HEADLINE DECISIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM...
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE EXISTING LONGWAVE TROUGHING NOW
ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS WILL UNDERGO SUBSTANTIAL
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS PROCESS WILL COMMENCE AS
STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN ATTENDANT 140 KT UPPER JET CORE
CURRENTLY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA DIG INTO THE LOWER HEIGHT FIELD.
STRENGTHENING DYNAMICS ATTENDANT TO A LEAD WAVE UNDERCUTTING THE
AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER TO END THE
WORK WEEK. THE DEEPENING PROCESS WILL THEN LEAVE A CLOSED LOW
CONFIGURATION CENTERED JUST TO THE NORTH FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...SPELLING A CONSIDERABLY COLDER AND UNSETTLED PERIOD.
A DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THURSDAY AS THE
GRADUALLY EXPANDING HEIGHT FALLS NUDGE THE EXISTING UPPER RIDGE TO
THE EAST. THIS PROCESS WILL MIX OUT ANY LINGERING FOG THROUGH LATE
MORNING...WITH THE ENSUING INCREASE IN MID LEVEL WARM AIR AND
THETA-E ADVECTION PROMPTING A STEADY THICKENING OF A HIGH BASED
CLOUD DECK DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. DESPITE THE WARMING
THERMAL PROFILE...A LINGERING SOUTHEAST SURFACE WIND AND LIMITED
MIXING DEPTH WILL MUTE THE OVERALL RESPONSE SLIGHTLY. IN ACCORDANCE
WITH THE GOING FORECAST...WILL CONTINUE TO TEMPER EXPECTATIONS WITH
HIGHS OF LOW TO MID 70S. TANGIBLE FORCING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
PERIOD REMAINS LESS DEFINED LOCALLY...THE AREA LARGELY REMOVED TO
THE EAST FROM THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF ASCENT LOCKED ONTO THE
THETA-E RIDGE AND PRIMARY TRAJECTORY OF ANY LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FUNNELING THROUGH THE MEAN SW FLOW. THERE REMAINS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS AXIS TO CREEP FAR ENOUGH EAST TO SUPPORT SOME
LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES. LOW
CHANCE POPS REMAIN APPROPRIATE FOR THIS AREA GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY.
THE INCREASING INTERACTION BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN
WAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE DEEPENING
LOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL PROMPT RAPID SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AND A
STRENGTHENING OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT UPSTREAM BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE DOWNSTREAM PROPAGATION OF A STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD
/50 KTS AT 850MB/ EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND AT THE EDGE OF
THE INBOUND LOWER HEIGHT FIELD WILL LIKELY PROMOTE AN EXPANSION IN
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE MIDWEST BY LATE THURSDAY.
THIS FORCING REMAINS FORECAST TO TRACK THROUGH SE MICHIGAN LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...A CORRESPONDING STEADY INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMMENCING DURING THIS TIME. DEEPEST ASCENT
IN PLACE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY...A PERIOD OF SOLID UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND CVA WORKING INTO A MOISTENING PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. EXISTING MID LEVEL INSTABILITY CERTAINLY SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A THUNDER MENTION...A FEW STRONGER GUSTS A POSSIBILITY GIVEN
THE WIND FIELD SHOULD BEST CORES CAPITALIZE ON THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY.
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO 993 MB AS IT TRACKS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON
FRIDAY. THE OVERALL AMPLITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO FAVOR A
SLOWER DOWNSTREAM PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN HEIGHT FALL CENTER...WITH
THE CORRESPONDING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE NOW EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A TRAILING PERIOD OF CVA AS THE STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS
COMMENCE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES WILL SUSTAIN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS POST-FRONTAL SHOWER PRODUCTION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SUSTAINED BY A 130 TO 140KT JET
THAT DIPS SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW BECOMES CLOSED AT 500MB...BOTTOMING OUT
AROUND 538 DAM. EVEN AFTER SYNOPTIC RAIN ENDS ON SATURDAY...STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS EACH DAY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. STRONG GEOSTROPHIC
WIND COMPONENT WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH DAYTIME
GUSTS OVER 20 MPH BEING COMMON.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF GUSTY CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL LAKE HURON BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 30 KNOTS...ALTHOUGH THE
ARRIVAL OF WARMER AIR WILL MAINTAIN A HIGHER DEGREE OF STABILITY
NEAR THE SURFACE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH DURING THIS TIME. A GUSTY
WESTERLY WIND FOR THE WEEKEND AS SEASONABLY COLD AIR OVERSPREADS THE
LAKES REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 147 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014
//DISCUSSION...
RESIDUAL CYCLONIC FLOW IN ADDITION TO A RELATIVELY MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS MAINTAINING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUD TODAY. LACK OF ADVECTION DURING THE NEXT 6
HOURS WILL MAKE CLEARING TRENDS VERY SLUGGISH. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUPPORTS A CONVERSION OF CLOUD INTO CUMULOFORM AND CELL
BASED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. EXPECT DEEPENING CONVECTIVE CIRCULATIONS
TO LEAD TO A GREATER CLOUD SCALE SUBSIDENCE COMPONENT WHICH WILL
HELP NOCTURNAL COOLING PROCESSES THIS EVENING IN ALLOWING CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE. PROVIDED THAT CLOUD COVER LESSENS TONIGHT...THE CONTINUED
LACK OF DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL THEN ALLOW THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND TIMING IS LOW AT THIS
POINT...ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THAT DEVELOPMENT COULD
HAPPEN RATHER QUICK...SOMETIME SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT PERSISTING THIS
AFTERNOON.
* LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 200 FT AND/OR
VISIBILITIES BELOW A HALF MILE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....MR/MM
MARINE.......MR
AVIATION.....CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
134 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHARP UPR RDG
EXTENDING FM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY N INTO NW ONTARIO...SUPPORTING
SFC HI PRES JUST N OF LK SUP. ALTHOUGH THE MID TROP IS QUITE DRY...
WITH 12Z H5 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS AS HI AS 45C AT MPX AND QUAD CITIES...
LINGERING LLVL MSTR TO THE S OF THE HI CENTER AND BLO SHARP
SUBSIDENCE INVRN ARND H9-925 CAUSED QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD TO PERSIST
OVER THE UPR LKS THRU THE MRNG. DAYTIME HEATING THAT HAS CAUSED THE
LCL TO RISE THRU THE SLOWLY SINKING INVRN BASE PER FCST SDNGS IS
RESULTING IN STEADY BREAKUP OF THE LO CLD EARLY THIS AFTN. THE LO
CLDS HAVE BEEN MOST RESILIENT OVER THE CENTRAL...WHERE LLVL NE WIND
IS UPSLOPING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY TILTED SHRTWV
IS LIFTING NNEWD THRU THE NRN PLAINS. DESPITE THE MID LVL DRY AIR IN
PLACE...SOME SHOWERS/TS IN THE RATHER NARROW WARM CONVEYOR BELT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ARE MOVING INTO SW MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON CLD TRENDS. FCST
CONCERNS ON WED SHIFT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE
INCRSG SLY FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE E OF SHRTWV MOVING THRU THE
NRN PLAINS INTO SCENTRAL CANADA.
TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE LO CLDS WL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE INTO THE EVNG
WITH THE IMPACTS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...NOCTURNAL COOLING AND
VEERING WINDS TO THE S THAT WL BRING A RETURN OF MOISTER H95-9 AIR
SHOULD RESULT IN MORE LO CLDS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD
BE SOME DRIZZLE OVER THE CENTRAL WHERE EXPECTED SSE WIND WL UPSLOPE
OFF LK MI. THE ONE EXCEPTION WL BE OVER THE W...WHERE THE S WIND WL
DOWNSLOPE AND PREVENT/LIMIT THE REFORMATION OF THE LO CLDS. OTRW...
SOME MID/HI CLDS ON THE ERN FLANK OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR
RIBBON MOVING E THRU WL INVADE THE W OVERNGT. THE COMBINATION OF
LINGERING LO CLDS AND/OR INCRSG SLY FLOW WITH H925 WINDS INCRSG UP
TO 20-30 KTS BY 12Z WED WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. BUT TEMPS
SHOULD STILL FALL INTO THE 30S AT SOME OF THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS
THAT SEE MOCLR SKIES FOR A TIME.
WED...ALTHOUGH THE PASSAGE OF SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING DPVA AND DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WELL TO THE W THRU MANITOBA WL LIMIT THE PCPN
POTENTIAL OVER UPR MI...RATHER NARROW WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON
AND AREA OF H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC AND BAND OF H85-7 FGEN IN
RRQ OF 80KT H3 JET MAX LIFTING NNEWD THRU NW ONTARIO WL BRING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE W IN THE AFTN. CONSIDERING THE STRONG
DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND APPRECIABLE DEEP MOISTENING THAT IS FCST TO
RAISE PWAT NEAR 1.5 INCHES /UP TO 200 PCT OF NORMAL/ BY 00Z THU...HI
LIKELY POPS SEEM APPROPRIATE OVER THE FAR W. ALTHOUGH THE MID LVLS
OVER THE E WL REMAIN DRY...FCST SDNGS INDICATE LO CLDS WL PERSIST
MOST OF THE DAY IN THAT AREA AND LIMIT THE DAYTIME TEMP RECOVERY.
BUT WITH STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW BRINGING A RETURN OF H85 TEMPS AS HI
AS 12-13C...MAX TEMPS WL RISE ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
BY 00Z THURSDAY THE AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH
MOISTURE STREAMING N FROM THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. THE INITIAL
SHORTWAVE WILL BE CROSSING THE CWA. WITH STEADY S WINDS AND 850MB
TEMPS NEAR 11C...EXPECT THE FCST LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S TO
HOLD. WHILE THIS INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE A QUARTER TO
HALF AN INCH OF LIQUID...THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE WHEN THE 500MB LOW SET UP ACROSS MAINLY ONTARIO DIVES
ACROSS MN...AND THE SFC LOW ACROSS MO/IA QUICKLY DEEPENS TO AROUND
998MB ACROSS THE W HALF OF UPPER MI LATE THURSDAY EVENING...AND TO
AROUND 988MB BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY OVER N LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR WINDS
TO RAPIDLY INCREASE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR W UPPER MI
OVERNIGHT.
THE SFC LOW WILL SHIFT UP ACROSS JAMES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALLOWING MUCH COOLER AIR TO SURGE INTO THE REGION. THE GFS
LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST WIND WISE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GALE
FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THROUGH THE E HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TO GRAND MARAIS. WHILE THIS MAY BE POSSIBLE...LESS
FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTIONS OFF THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE NOT BACKING THIS
UP QUITE YET. GALES WILL BE STILL BE POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS
PERIOD...BUT WILL KEEP MORE OF A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE TIME BEING
UNTIL MODELS COME MORE IN LINE. WILL KEEP THE TS POTENTIAL IN
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE...AND STILL
MAINLY KEEPING IT OVER UPPER MI/LAKE MI.
THE SFC LOW WILL NOT EXIT FAST...AND WILL KEEP A TROUGH ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY. THE 500MB LOW WILL SWING ACROSS
UPPER MI FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF -23
TO -29C AT 500MB ROTATING ACROSS UPPER MI AND WI. WE ARE BACK TO
THAT TIME OF YEAR WHERE COOL NIGHTS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS OFF OF THE WARM LAKES WILL HELP PRODUCE
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
THE SFC RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. WITH A LESS FAVORABLE WIND
DIRECTION...THIS SHOULD BE THE DRIEST PERIOD DURING THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014
AREAS OF DRIZZLE HAVE DEVELOPED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WHILE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO EXPAND WITH
EASTERLY FLOW ABOVE THE SFC. LATEST NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
IFR/LIFR CIGS AT KSAW THIS AM WITH SIMILAR CIGS BUT NOT AS
PERSISTENT...AT KCMX. AS KSAW TO EXPERIENCE UPSLOPE FLOW WHILE KCMX
EVENTUALLY GETS WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW LATER THIS AM EXPECT CIGS TO
VARY MUCH MORE WITH IFR/LIFR OCCASIONALLY INTERRUPTED BY MVFR UNTIL
THE WINDS FINALLY GO MORE S. SHORT RANGE MODELS STILL HINTING THAT
KIWD TO SEE POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST NAM
BUFKIT. HAVE ONLY CARRIED THE IFR IN A TEMPO GROUP AS WINDS TO SHIFT
S AT KIWD WHICH SHOULD ERODE AND LOW CIGS. SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE
KIWD AREA AFTER 18Z AND REACH KCMX BY 0Z BUT CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
STAY MVFR OR BETTER. AT KSAW...UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH
INCREASING RH TO RESULT IN REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS LATE IN THE
FORECAST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
HIGH PRESSURE OF OVER N ONTARIO WILL MOVE E TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN NE WILL LIFT ACROSS S MANITOBA WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
TO HUDSON BAY THURSDAY MORNING. A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL MOVE E...REACHING LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY. A LOW WILL FORM
ALONG THIS TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY THURSDAY EVENING AND THEN
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS INTO N ONTARIO FRIDAY...AND TO HUDSON BAY FRIDAY
NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W PLAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SETTLE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...AS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE HUDSON BAY LOW LINGERS OVER
N ONTARIO. A PERIOD OF NEAR GALES OUT OF THE W-NW WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1157 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A COMPACT 995 MB LOW NEAR RUGBY
/ND/ WITH A TRAILING SFC COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT DOWN THROUGH THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS THAT EVENTUALLY WORKS INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. TO
THE EAST...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE ACROSS ONTARIO...BUT DRY
SE WINDS EMANATING FROM IT HAVE REALLY IMPEDED THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE MPX CWA...TO THIS POINT ANYWAYS. ALOFT...THE
FEATURE OF INTEREST SHOWS UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING
INTO WRN KS...AND THIS WAVE WILL BE OVER SRN MN BY THE AFTERNOON.
SE WINDS EMANATING FROM THE GREAT LAKES HIGH HAS HELD SFC DEWPS IN
THE 40S ACROSS ERN MN/WRN WI THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH COMBINED WITH
THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE AND ITS FORCING GOING DUE NORTH THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO SRN CANADA...BYPASSING THE MPX AREA TO THE
NW...RESULTED IN THE MPX CWA REMAINING MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...AS THE KS WAVE APPROACHES...CONTINUED HEIGHT FALLS OUT
AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE ERN HALF
OF THE MPX AREA WITHIN THE ZONE OF GREATEST ASCENT WITHIN THE
LLJ...WHICH WILL BE WORKING UP THROUGH WRN WI. HI-RES REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS CERTAINLY BEAR THE LOOK OF A LIMITED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FORECAST...SO HAVE CONTINUE TO HOLD A THUNDER MENTION THROUGH THE
DAY AT ISOLATED. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF QPF WITH A GOOD
HALF TO ONE RAIN OF RAIN FALLING TODAY ALONG/EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...USED A PRETTY MUCH EVEN MODEL BLEND FOR
QPF...WHICH RESULTED IN THE DESIRED HALF TO ONE INCH AMOUNTS. OF
COURSE WITH THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN FALLING INTO AN AIRMASS WITH DEWPS
CURRENTLY IN THE 40S...IT WILL NOT WARM UP MUCH TODAY...SO COOLED
HIGHS ACROSS ERN MN/WRN WI...KEEPING THEM MAINLY IN THE 50S.
OUT IN WRN MN...DID INTRODUCE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS OUT THERE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE THREAT FOR SEEING ISO-SCT
SHOWERS/STORM DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BE
ENTERING WRN MN DURING PEAK HEATING. MOST GUIDANCE POINTS TO SOME
BREAKS DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON OUT WEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S. THE NAM SHOWS 500-1000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE WORKING EAST WITH THE FRONT TODAY...SO FELT SOME 20/30 POPS
WERE WARRANTED OUT WEST WITH THE HRRR SHOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT BY THE AFTERNOON AND THE 01.00 ECMWF
SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT QPF OUT IN WRN MN ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AS WELL.
FOR TONIGHT...DRIED OUT THE ENTIRE CWA AFTER 6Z AS THE KS WAVE WILL
BE WELL OFF INTO NRN MN BY THEN...WITH ANY ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT
LOSING INTEREST WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. BY 12Z THU...THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE MN/WI BORDER. WINDS WILL BE CALM/LIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SO WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WATCH
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS ERN MN/WRN WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD IN THE 7-DAY FORECAST IS THE THU-FRI
TIME FRAME WITH A DEEP TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA THAT IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER MT/ID/NV BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WE DELAYED THE ONSET
OF PRECIP ON THURSDAY TO INCLUDE A MORE DEFINED BREAK IN THE
PRECIP BETWEEN THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE ONE EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK. THIS
ENTIRE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND THERE HAS
ALSO BEEN AN EASTWARD TREND IN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE 10.00Z
NAM WAS THE FARTHEST WEST AND THUS WETTEST SOLUTION FOR THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT EVEN THE 10.06Z GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED EAST -
ALTHOUGH THE NAM STILL HAS REALLY GOOD FGEN AND HEAVY BANDED
PRECIP IN WESTERN WI AND FAR EASTERN MN FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WAS
ALSO AN EASTWARD SHIFT WITH 10.00Z ECMWF. THE GFS SORT OF SPLITS
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM AND ECMWF. THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
PRECIP LOCALLY IS DUE TO THE DEVELOPING DRY SLOT WITH MOST OF THE
PRECIP POTENTIALLY SLIDING EAST. EVEN IF MOST OF THE PRECIP
SLIDES EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...THE POTENT UPPER
WAVE SHOULD PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION
AND STRONG WINDS DURING THE DAY.
FRIDAY LOOKS QUITE BLUSTERY AND WE ARE NOW THINKING MANY LOCATIONS
MIGHT NOT EVEN HIT 50 FOR A HIGH. THE GUSTY WINDS...CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN WILL MAKE THE UPPER 40S FEEL EVEN COOLER. SPEAKING OF
THE WIND...WE WILL LIKELY BE WITHIN 5-10 MPH OF WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN MN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A HIGH BUILDS
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SPEED OF THE MSLP PRESSURE FALLS IS
NOT WELL AGREED UPON AMONGST THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF. THE CIPS ANALOGS
FOR FRIDAY ARE NOT VERY CONVINCING FOR WIND ADVISORY...BUT STILL
SHOW PLENTY OF WIND AND ALSO MATCH MANY OCTOBER DAYS WHERE MN/WI
STAYED IN THE 40S FOR HIGHS. NONETHELESS...WE HAVE SUSTAINED 25-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THE FORECAST FOR MN SIMPLY BASED ON
THE NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING REALLY GOOD MIXING WITH
THE COLD ADVECTION AND 40-50KTS AT 850MB BY 00Z SATURDAY.
FOR THE MOST PART WE THINK THE COMING WEEKEND WILL BE DRY...BUT
STILL QUITE COOL. THERE HAS BEEN SOME RUNS SHOWING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF LONGWAVE
TROUGH WHICH ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER UPPER MISS...GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST US EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...A VAST MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ATTACHED TO THE CORE OF THE TROUGH WHERE
THERE IS MUCH BETTER LIFT. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE NEXT WEEK
WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE TROUGH ANCHORED AND THE ECMWF BEING MUCH
MORE PROGRESSIVE IN BUILDING HEIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
THE TROUGH OVER NORTH DAKOTA THAT HAS FACILITATED A SOLID AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI ALONG WITH LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS MANITOBA DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
PERIODIC WAVES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING WILL
MAINTAIN REDUCTIONS TO FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...THE CONCERN WILL SHIFT TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AND STRATUS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE CIGS LOOK TO BE THE WORST FOR WEST CENTRAL WI
SITES...WHERE LIFR AND EVEN VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS IMPACTFUL WITH
WESTWARD PROGRESSION TOWARD KAXN/KSTC/KRWF.
THE NEXT SLUG OF MOISTURE AND ROBUST LIFT ARRIVE ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY AFFECTING KMSP/KRNH/KEAU...WITH
KSTC AND KRWF ON THE WESTERN FRINGES.
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TONIGHT...WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND OR UNDER 6
KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KMSP...
CIGS ARE ADMITTEDLY TRICKY FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVE. EXPECT THE AREA OF
RAIN TO EXIT THE AIRPORT BY 20Z. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCT BREAKS IN THE SUB-1000FT DECK THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 1700 FT THROUGH 22Z. WILL THEN HAVE A
WINDOW OF TIME UNTIL 02Z WHEN CIGS COULD IMPROVE TO OVC020...BUT
THEN SHOULD DROP BACK TO AROUND 1500FT AROUND/AFTER SUNSET AND
REMAIN IFR OVERNIGHT. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WITH
POCKETS OF 1/2SM VSBYS NEAR THE AIRPORT. NOT CONFIDENT IF KMSP
WILL GO THAT LOW DIRECTLY AT THE SITE...SO WILL STICK WITH 1SM
PREVAILING FOR NOW.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MAINLY MVFR WITH CHC -SHRA. WINDS WNW 20G30 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...LS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
612 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A COMPACT 995 MB LOW NEAR RUGBY
/ND/ WITH A TRAILING SFC COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT DOWN THROUGH THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS THAT EVENTUALLY WORKS INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. TO
THE EAST...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE ACROSS ONTARIO...BUT DRY
SE WINDS EMANATING FROM IT HAVE REALLY IMPEDED THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE MPX CWA...TO THIS POINT ANYWAYS. ALOFT...THE
FEATURE OF INTEREST SHOWS UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING
INTO WRN KS...AND THIS WAVE WILL BE OVER SRN MN BY THE AFTERNOON.
SE WINDS EMANATING FROM THE GREAT LAKES HIGH HAS HELD SFC DEWPS IN
THE 40S ACROSS ERN MN/WRN WI THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH COMBINED WITH
THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE AND ITS FORCING GOING DUE NORTH THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO SRN CANADA...BYPASSING THE MPX AREA TO THE
NW...RESULTED IN THE MPX CWA REMAINING MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...AS THE KS WAVE APPROACHES...CONTINUED HEIGHT FALLS OUT
AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE ERN HALF
OF THE MPX AREA WITHIN THE ZONE OF GREATEST ASCENT WITHIN THE
LLJ...WHICH WILL BE WORKING UP THROUGH WRN WI. HI-RES REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS CERTAINLY BEAR THE LOOK OF A LIMITED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FORECAST...SO HAVE CONTINUE TO HOLD A THUNDER MENTION THROUGH THE
DAY AT ISOLATED. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF QPF WITH A GOOD
HALF TO ONE RAIN OF RAIN FALLING TODAY ALONG/EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...USED A PRETTY MUCH EVEN MODEL BLEND FOR
QPF...WHICH RESULTED IN THE DESIRED HALF TO ONE INCH AMOUNTS. OF
COURSE WITH THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN FALLING INTO AN AIRMASS WITH DEWPS
CURRENTLY IN THE 40S...IT WILL NOT WARM UP MUCH TODAY...SO COOLED
HIGHS ACROSS ERN MN/WRN WI...KEEPING THEM MAINLY IN THE 50S.
OUT IN WRN MN...DID INTRODUCE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS OUT THERE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE THREAT FOR SEEING ISO-SCT
SHOWERS/STORM DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BE
ENTERING WRN MN DURING PEAK HEATING. MOST GUIDANCE POINTS TO SOME
BREAKS DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON OUT WEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S. THE NAM SHOWS 500-1000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE WORKING EAST WITH THE FRONT TODAY...SO FELT SOME 20/30 POPS
WERE WARRANTED OUT WEST WITH THE HRRR SHOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT BY THE AFTERNOON AND THE 01.00 ECMWF
SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT QPF OUT IN WRN MN ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AS WELL.
FOR TONIGHT...DRIED OUT THE ENTIRE CWA AFTER 6Z AS THE KS WAVE WILL
BE WELL OFF INTO NRN MN BY THEN...WITH ANY ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT
LOSING INTEREST WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. BY 12Z THU...THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE MN/WI BORDER. WINDS WILL BE CALM/LIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SO WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WATCH
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS ERN MN/WRN WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD IN THE 7-DAY FORECAST IS THE THU-FRI
TIME FRAME WITH A DEEP TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA THAT IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER MT/ID/NV BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WE DELAYED THE ONSET
OF PRECIP ON THURSDAY TO INCLUDE A MORE DEFINED BREAK IN THE
PRECIP BETWEEN THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE ONE EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK. THIS
ENTIRE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND THERE HAS
ALSO BEEN AN EASTWARD TREND IN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE 10.00Z
NAM WAS THE FARTHEST WEST AND THUS WETTEST SOLUTION FOR THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT EVEN THE 10.06Z GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED EAST -
ALTHOUGH THE NAM STILL HAS REALLY GOOD FGEN AND HEAVY BANDED
PRECIP IN WESTERN WI AND FAR EASTERN MN FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WAS
ALSO AN EASTWARD SHIFT WITH 10.00Z ECMWF. THE GFS SORT OF SPLITS
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM AND ECMWF. THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
PRECIP LOCALLY IS DUE TO THE DEVELOPING DRY SLOT WITH MOST OF THE
PRECIP POTENTIALLY SLIDING EAST. EVEN IF MOST OF THE PRECIP
SLIDES EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...THE POTENT UPPER
WAVE SHOULD PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION
AND STRONG WINDS DURING THE DAY.
FRIDAY LOOKS QUITE BLUSTERY AND WE ARE NOW THINKING MANY LOCATIONS
MIGHT NOT EVEN HIT 50 FOR A HIGH. THE GUSTY WINDS...CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN WILL MAKE THE UPPER 40S FEEL EVEN COOLER. SPEAKING OF
THE WIND...WE WILL LIKELY BE WITHIN 5-10 MPH OF WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN MN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A HIGH BUILDS
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SPEED OF THE MSLP PRESSURE FALLS IS
NOT WELL AGREED UPON AMONGST THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF. THE CIPS ANALOGS
FOR FRIDAY ARE NOT VERY CONVINCING FOR WIND ADVISORY...BUT STILL
SHOW PLENTY OF WIND AND ALSO MATCH MANY OCTOBER DAYS WHERE MN/WI
STAYED IN THE 40S FOR HIGHS. NONETHELESS...WE HAVE SUSTAINED 25-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THE FORECAST FOR MN SIMPLY BASED ON
THE NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING REALLY GOOD MIXING WITH
THE COLD ADVECTION AND 40-50KTS AT 850MB BY 00Z SATURDAY.
FOR THE MOST PART WE THINK THE COMING WEEKEND WILL BE DRY...BUT
STILL QUITE COOL. THERE HAS BEEN SOME RUNS SHOWING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF LONGWAVE
TROUGH WHICH ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER UPPER MISS...GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST US EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...A VAST MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ATTACHED TO THE CORE OF THE TROUGH WHERE
THERE IS MUCH BETTER LIFT. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE NEXT WEEK
WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE TROUGH ANCHORED AND THE ECMWF BEING MUCH
MORE PROGRESSIVE IN BUILDING HEIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
RAIN IS QUICKLY OVERSPREADING ERN MN/WRN WI THIS MORNING...A
SCENARIO THAT HAS BEEN HANDLED WELL BE THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE
HRRR. AS A RESULT...FOLLOWED THE HRRR PRETTY CLOSE FOR TIMING THE
AREA OF RAIN CURRENTLY HEADING OUR DIRECTION IN IOWA.
OVERNIGHT...WE SAW IFR/MVFR CIGS EXPAND ACROSS WRN MN OUT AHEAD A
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WAS ONLY ABOUT TO ABERDEEN AT 12Z. THE RAP
HAS HAD A GOOD HANDEL ON BOTH THE FRONT AND BACK EDGES OF THIS
CLOUD SHIELD...SO FOLLOWED ITS IDEA FOR TIMING IMPROVEMENTS BACK
TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. ABOUT THE ONLY BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH TAFS TODAY IS CIGS MAY COME IN A BIT LOWER /USED
THE SCT IFR GROUPS FOR THAT POSSIBILITY/ AND WE MAY BE A BIT TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH VFR IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
AFTERNOON...THE DAKOTAS FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO WRN MN...WITH
THE HRRR SHOWING SCT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT...SO ADDED
A VCSH TO AXN/RWF FOR THAT. LATE TONIGHT...IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT
ERN MN AND WRN WI WILL BE DEALING WITH LOW STRATUS AND FOG AS THE
FRONT GETS HUNG UP ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER. THERE WILL BE LGT AND
VRB WINDS AND PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...KEPT THE TAFS FOR RNH/EAU CLOSE TO WHAT
THE LAMP HAS.
KMSP...
ASSUMING THE HRRR IS CORRECT...AND I SEE NO REASON WHY IT WOULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY OFF THE MARK...LOOKS GOOD TO SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF
-RA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHETHER OR NOT CIGS WILL GO SUB 1K...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THE
CIGS WILL DIP UNDER 018 AS THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD ARRIVES. FOR
TONIGHT...THE SREF MVFR CIG/VIS PROBABILITIES HAVE MSP ON THE WRN
EDGE OF THE BETTER PROBABILITIES FOR LOW CIGS AND FG/BR...BUT WITH
WINDS LOOKING LIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP NEAR THE TWIN
CITIES...LOOKS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT THAT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH
SOME PRETTY LOW CONDS THU MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MAINLY MVFR WITH CHC -SHRA. WINDS WNW 20G30 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
433 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A COMPACT 995 MB LOW NEAR RUGBY
/ND/ WITH A TRAILING SFC COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT DOWN THROUGH THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS THAT EVENTUALLY WORKS INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. TO
THE EAST...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE ACROSS ONTARIO...BUT DRY
SE WINDS EMANATING FROM IT HAVE REALLY IMPEDED THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE MPX CWA...TO THIS POINT ANYWAYS. ALOFT...THE
FEATURE OF INTEREST SHOWS UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING
INTO WRN KS...AND THIS WAVE WILL BE OVER SRN MN BY THE AFTERNOON.
SE WINDS EMANATING FROM THE GREAT LAKES HIGH HAS HELD SFC DEWPS IN
THE 40S ACROSS ERN MN/WRN WI THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH COMBINED WITH
THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE AND ITS FORCING GOING DUE NORTH THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO SRN CANADA...BYPASSING THE MPX AREA TO THE
NW...RESULTED IN THE MPX CWA REMAINING MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...AS THE KS WAVE APPROACHES...CONTINUED HEIGHT FALLS OUT
AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE ERN HALF
OF THE MPX AREA WITHIN THE ZONE OF GREATEST ASCENT WITHIN THE
LLJ...WHICH WILL BE WORKING UP THROUGH WRN WI. HI-RES REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS CERTAINLY BEAR THE LOOK OF A LIMITED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FORECAST...SO HAVE CONTINUE TO HOLD A THUNDER MENTION THROUGH THE
DAY AT ISOLATED. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF QPF WITH A GOOD
HALF TO ONE RAIN OF RAIN FALLING TODAY ALONG/EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...USED A PRETTY MUCH EVEN MODEL BLEND FOR
QPF...WHICH RESULTED IN THE DESIRED HALF TO ONE INCH AMOUNTS. OF
COURSE WITH THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN FALLING INTO AN AIRMASS WITH DEWPS
CURRENTLY IN THE 40S...IT WILL NOT WARM UP MUCH TODAY...SO COOLED
HIGHS ACROSS ERN MN/WRN WI...KEEPING THEM MAINLY IN THE 50S.
OUT IN WRN MN...DID INTRODUCE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS OUT THERE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE THREAT FOR SEEING ISO-SCT
SHOWERS/STORM DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BE
ENTERING WRN MN DURING PEAK HEATING. MOST GUIDANCE POINTS TO SOME
BREAKS DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON OUT WEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S. THE NAM SHOWS 500-1000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE WORKING EAST WITH THE FRONT TODAY...SO FELT SOME 20/30 POPS
WERE WARRANTED OUT WEST WITH THE HRRR SHOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT BY THE AFTERNOON AND THE 01.00 ECMWF
SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT QPF OUT IN WRN MN ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AS WELL.
FOR TONIGHT...DRIED OUT THE ENTIRE CWA AFTER 6Z AS THE KS WAVE WILL
BE WELL OFF INTO NRN MN BY THEN...WITH ANY ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT
LOSING INTEREST WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. BY 12Z THU...THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE MN/WI BORDER. WINDS WILL BE CALM/LIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SO WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WATCH
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS ERN MN/WRN WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD IN THE 7-DAY FORECAST IS THE THU-FRI
TIME FRAME WITH A DEEP TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA THAT IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER MT/ID/NV BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WE DELAYED THE ONSET
OF PRECIP ON THURSDAY TO INCLUDE A MORE DEFINED BREAK IN THE
PRECIP BETWEEN THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE ONE EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK. THIS
ENTIRE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND THERE HAS
ALSO BEEN AN EASTWARD TREND IN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE 10.00Z
NAM WAS THE FARTHEST WEST AND THUS WETTEST SOLUTION FOR THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT EVEN THE 10.06Z GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED EAST -
ALTHOUGH THE NAM STILL HAS REALLY GOOD FGEN AND HEAVY BANDED
PRECIP IN WESTERN WI AND FAR EASTERN MN FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WAS
ALSO AN EASTWARD SHIFT WITH 10.00Z ECMWF. THE GFS SORT OF SPLITS
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM AND ECMWF. THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
PRECIP LOCALLY IS DUE TO THE DEVELOPING DRY SLOT WITH MOST OF THE
PRECIP POTENTIALLY SLIDING EAST. EVEN IF MOST OF THE PRECIP
SLIDES EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...THE POTENT UPPER
WAVE SHOULD PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION
AND STRONG WINDS DURING THE DAY.
FRIDAY LOOKS QUITE BLUSTERY AND WE ARE NOW THINKING MANY LOCATIONS
MIGHT NOT EVEN HIT 50 FOR A HIGH. THE GUSTY WINDS...CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN WILL MAKE THE UPPER 40S FEEL EVEN COOLER. SPEAKING OF
THE WIND...WE WILL LIKELY BE WITHIN 5-10 MPH OF WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN MN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A HIGH BUILDS
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SPEED OF THE MSLP PRESSURE FALLS IS
NOT WELL AGREED UPON AMONGST THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF. THE CIPS ANALOGS
FOR FRIDAY ARE NOT VERY CONVINCING FOR WIND ADVISORY...BUT STILL
SHOW PLENTY OF WIND AND ALSO MATCH MANY OCTOBER DAYS WHERE MN/WI
STAYED IN THE 40S FOR HIGHS. NONETHELESS...WE HAVE SUSTAINED 25-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THE FORECAST FOR MN SIMPLY BASED ON
THE NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING REALLY GOOD MIXING WITH
THE COLD ADVECTION AND 40-50KTS AT 850MB BY 00Z SATURDAY.
FOR THE MOST PART WE THINK THE COMING WEEKEND WILL BE DRY...BUT
STILL QUITE COOL. THERE HAS BEEN SOME RUNS SHOWING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF LONGWAVE
TROUGH WHICH ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER UPPER MISS...GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST US EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...A VAST MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ATTACHED TO THE CORE OF THE TROUGH WHERE
THERE IS MUCH BETTER LIFT. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE NEXT WEEK
WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE TROUGH ANCHORED AND THE ECMWF BEING MUCH
MORE PROGRESSIVE IN BUILDING HEIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
DEEP LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD
INTO CENTRAL CANADA THRU TMRW. CONDITIONS ARE GOOD FOR LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT THRU MUCH OF THE DAY TMRW. THE MAIN
ROUND OF RAIN LOOKS TO DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK AND SHORTLY
THEREAFTER...LASTING INTO THE EARLY AFTN HRS. THIS ROUND OF
PRECIP LOOKS HEAVY ENOUGH TO INDICATE SOME VSBY RESTRICTION DUE
TO THE HEAVIER AND STEADIER EXPECTED PRECIP...WHILE ALSO SLIGHTLY
RAISING CEILINGS. ONCE THE PRECIP ENDS...THE LOW CEILINGS WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO ERODE SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF ERN TAF SITES
/KMSP-KRNH-KEAU/ REMAINED NO BETTER THAN MVFR THRU LATE AFTN AND
POSSIBLY THRU 00Z TMRW EVE. BREEZY SE WINDS THIS EVE WILL SETTLE
DOWN TO CLOSE TO 10 KT...THEN BECOME BREEZY AGAIN TMRW AFTN.
KMSP...CONDS TO DETERIORATE TOVERNIGHT AS MVFR CIGS DEVELOP THEN
DROP TO IFR LOW STRATUS CEILINGS. NOT LOOKING FOR FOG WITH WINDS
BEING ELEVATED. MAIN BATCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND
DAYBREAK TMRW...POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE MRNG RUSH WITH MVFR
VSBY...AND POSSIBLY LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. RAIN
TO LINGER THRU MIDDAY BUT EVEN AFTER ENDING...IFR CONDS LIKELY TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THRU LATE DAY BEFORE EVENING IMPROVEMENT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MAINLY MVFR WITH CHC -SHRA. WINDS WNW 20G30 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
633 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 248 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
The ongoing thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and early
evening ahead of a deep layer trough and an approaching cold front.
As of 19Z the cold front was just entering the northwest portion of
the CWA and slowly advancing eastward. The severe threat, hail and
wind, is very limited for our CWA and located across our far
southern counties along and south of a warm front. The front has
made very little northward progress due to reinforced cool air from
the morning/early afternoon convection to its north and thus it is
not expected to move much this afternoon. By later this evening the
warm sector will be shunted east with the passage of the
aforementioned cold front with much of the deeper convection east of
the CWA. There will be a low chance for post-frontal showers
and isolated elevated thunderstorms overnight tonight, but that
activity should not amount to much...per the HRRR and current 88D trends.
Near sunrise tomorrow a secondary cold front quickly moves in and
through the CWA behind the departing upper level trough. It will be rather
breezy behind the front with northwest winds gusting to as high as
30 MPH advecting much cooler and drier air. There will also be a
low chance pops for widely scattered showers...very hit or
miss...and diurnally driven.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Any clouds lingering into Friday evening over central Missouri will
be fast to scatter out leaving clear skies overnight. This will set
the stage for one of the coldest nights of the season so far with
temperatures in the mid to upper 30s across much of the area. Some
guidance is bringing parts of northern Missouri down below freezing,
but this seems too cold since west winds should remain around 5 to 10
mph overnight. Coldest temperatures should be west of us, closer to
the low-level ridge axis. Could still see some patchy frost across
eastern KS into northern Missouri early Saturday morning particularly
in areas sheltered from a westerly wind.
This ridge axis will pass overhead on Saturday keeping temperatures
seasonably chilly with highs in the 50s. Southerly winds on the back
side of this feature will prevent Saturday night`s temperatures from
getting much below 40 degrees while Sunday sees a nice warm up into
the upper 60s and lower 70s.
On Monday a very weak wave will rotate into the area on the back side
of a large Great Lakes upper trough. Could see a few showers from
this feature but overall precipitation chances are only 30 percent or
so. Once this passes through, slow height rises will build into the
Plains and allow temperatures to warm into the middle and upper 70s
by Weds and Thurs.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Current MVFR/IFR conditions should continue for a couple more hours.
Improved vis/ceilings and ending of sprinkles/showers should commence
this evening, and this is noted in upstream observations. Skies will
potentially clear overnight, before another mixed deck of low/mid
clouds move into terminals around sunrise. Could see some MVFR
ceilings with the second round, but not confident in persistent
conditions. Clouds will clear once again during the afternoon. Winds
will be gusty during the day tomorrow, with speeds reducing by late
afternoon.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ057-060.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ033-040-
043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Pietrycha
LONG TERM...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Blair
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1226 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
INTERESTING MESO-BETA SCALE CHANGES ARE MODIFYING THE CONDITIONS
AND NECESSITATING SHORT-TERM CHANGES TO THE FCST. A SERIES OF
GRAVITY WAVES HAVE EMANATED FROM THE SHWR ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPED
OVER CUSTER COUNTY. THIS HAS INITIATED AN ARC OF CLEARING OF THE
STRATUS FROM NW-SE. THE SKY FCST WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED. WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NW BEHIND THESE WAVES...BUT ARE STILL LIGHT
ENOUGH WITH LOW DWPT DEPRESSIONS THAT THIS CLEARING COULD ALLOW
FOG TO REDEVELOP.
SO EXPECT A TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT OF SKY/VSBY...BUT VSBYS COULD
LOWER AGAIN IN FOG.
AN SPS WAS POSTED AT 520 AM FOR PATCHES OF DENSE FOG. IT EXPIRES
AT 630. WE WILL CONT TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR ANOTHER ISSUANCE. AT
THIS TIME...THE ONLY DENSE FOG WAS OVER PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL KS.
UPDATED FCST WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
ALOFT: A SHORTWAVE TROF WAS MOVING THRU EARLY THIS MORNING AND
HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH CLOUDS AND EVEN TSTMS
OVER FILLMORE/THAYER COUNTIES. ANOTHER MORE POTENT/AMPLIFIED TROF
WAS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. THIS TROF WILL CONT E AND WILL BE
MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS AT SUNRISE TOMORROW WITH ITS WAVELENGTH
SHORTENING.
SURFACE: A STATIONARY FRONT BISECTED CNTRL NEB/KS. THIS FRONT
WILL SHOW A GENERAL TENDENCY TO DRIFT E TODAY AND THEN ACCELERATE
S AND E OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR NEAR
PUB TODAY AND WILL LATCH ONTO THE FRONT TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL BE
A PLAYER IN OUR WX THU-FRI.
EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDY MOST AREAS WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE
VISIBILITIES IN PATCHY FOG. THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF 1/4SM
VISIBILITY AT TIMES. THE ONLY AREA THAT HAS HAD SUSTAINED 1/4SM IN
DENSE FOG IS LXN. IF THIS CONTS WE WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WX
STATEMENT /SPS/ BEFORE THE MORNING COMMUTE ENSUES.
SOME SHWRS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM THE SANDHILLS DOWN TO CUSTER
COUNTY. THESE SHWRS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL PORTION OF THE
COMMA CLOUD OVER CNTRL NEB AND COULD SKIRT THRU AREAS ALONG AND N
OF I-80 THRU 9 AM.
TODAY: WHATEVER FOG/STRATUS IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING SHOULD BEGIN
ERODING 9-10 AM AND BE GONE BY 1 PM. HOWEVER...THIS IS BASED JUST ON
PAST EXPERIENCE. THE MODELS DO NOT HANDLE STRATUS WELL. THE EDGES
OF THE STRATUS ARE NEARBY...SO DAYTIME HEATING AND BL MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR EROSION AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION. FOR WHAT IT`S
WORTH...THE 00Z NAM LOW CLOUD FCST INDICATES IMPROVEMENT...BUT THE
LAST AREAS TO IMPROVE WILL BE ALONG THE NEB HWY 81 CORRIDOR. THE
06Z HRRR IS ON BOARD WITH IMPROVEMENT FROM THE W. IT COULD
POTENTIALLY TAKE UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON TO CLEAR OUT THERE.
AS FOR AFTERNOON TSTM POTENTIAL. IT LOOKS DOUBTFUL IN THIS FCSTRS
ESTIMATION. WHILE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROFS DURING PEAK HEATING AND WEAK
LOW-LVL WINDS MEANS A LACK OF BL CONVERGENCE. FURTHERMORE...THERE
IS A LOT OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND CONSENSUS OF MOS
AND MODEL 2M TEMPS IS THAT DWPTS WILL MIX DOWN INTO THE 40S W OF
HWY 281 AND 50S TO THE E. THE EASTWARD DRIFT OF THE FRONT WILL
ALSO SHOVE HIGHER DWPTS E OF THE FCST AREA. THAT WILL CREATE CINH
WHICH SHOULD PUT A CAP ON POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION...
ESPECIALLY WITHOUT SOME HELP ALOFT. COORDINATED WITH SPC AND
PENDING EVALUATION OF MORNING SOUNDINGS...THEY MAY SCALE BACK THE
SLGT RISK AREA. VERY LOW POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM
...BUT COVERAGE JUST LOOKS WAY TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A SLGT.
WHILE THE 15Z AND 21Z SREF INDICATED SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TSTMS...THE 03Z CAME IN DRY IN THE 21Z-00Z TIME FRAME.
IF SOMETHING CAN FORM...SREF MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG IS FCST.
LOW-LVL WINDS WILL BE WEAK...BUT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35 KTS. WILL CONT MENTION IN THE HWO
BUT KNOW THAT THIS IS CONDITIONAL BASED IN "IF" A TSTM OR TWO
FORMS AT ALL.
HIGH TEMPS ARE BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE BASED ON STRATUS AND HOW
LONG IT LINGERS. AREAS ALONG HWY 81 YESTERDAY STAYED IN THE 60S
FOR HIGHS BECAUSE CLOUDS LINGERED LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.
SO BOTTOM LINE FOR TODAY...CLOUDY TO START WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING.
SHOULD BE A NICE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY.
TONIGHT: BECOMING CLOUDY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL
SUPERIMPOSE SUBSTANTIAL QG FORCING/LIFT OVERTOP THE FRONTAL
SURFACE... RESULTING IN DEEP LIFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BURST OF
SHWRS AND TSTMS...ALTHOUGH WANING INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY BRING
THE THREAT OF THUNDER TO AN END FROM NW-SE. FRONTOGENETIC BANDING
POTENTIAL SUGGESTS THIS COULD RESULT IN A SWATH OF HEALTHY
RAINFALL (0.75" TO 1") FOR SOME PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
A COUPLE OF UPPER TROUGHS/COLD FRONTS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
MILD WEATHER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. STARTING ON THURSDAY...AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WHICH DEVELOPS WED NIGHT WILL BE ONGOING
THURSDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES AND
CANNOT RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE BEFORE PCPN ENDS
W/E BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST DURING THE DAY...REACHING IA/EASTERN
KS IN THE AFTN. H85 TEMPS DROP NEARLY 10C FROM WED TO THURS BEHIND
THE FRONT AND HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID
60S.
AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THURSDAY...THE NEXT ONE WILL
BE ON ITS HEELS...DIVING SOUTH FM SASKATCHEWAN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT REACHES OUR NW CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND RAPIDLY SWEEPS
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THREE HOUR PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT
AVERAGE 3 TO 6 MB AND THE NOCTURNAL FROPA WILL BE NOTICEABLE WITH
AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS OVER 30/40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS N/NW NEBRASKA MAY
GENERATE LIGHT PCPN IN VCNTY OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...BUT WITH LLVL
MOISTURE LACKING HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY WITH SILENT POPS BUT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR PERHAPS A SPRINKLE MENTION.
FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO A COOL WINDY DAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES INTO IOWA. THE SFC GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT THRU THE DAY IN
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW/COLD FRONT TO THE EAST AND A 1025MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING ABOVE H85 WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
AVERAGING 40KTS AND IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE WILL LIKELY NEED A
WIND ADVISORY FRIDAY. IN CAA...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL ONLY AVERAGE IN
THE 50S/LOW 60S.
BIGGER CHANGES IN THE FORECAST COME IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD IN
THE COLD AIRMASS...AND WE COULD SEE THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON
IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. THE SFC GRADIENT RELAXES FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW DEPARTS AND THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS DEVELOP THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SFC DPS ARE PROGGED IN THE 20S AND TEMPS SHOULD EASILY DROP INTO
THE 30S FOR LOWS. HAVE WENT WITH TEMPS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
ACROSS OUR W/NW CWA...WITH MID 30S FARTHER SOUTH...AND THIS IS
BASED ON A BLEND AND THERE IS MODEL SUPPORT FOR TEMPS A SEVERAL
DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS FORECAST. WILL INCLUDE THE COLD TEMPS IN
THE HWO IF TRENDS CONTINUE MAY NEED A FREEZE/FROST HEADLINE AS
THINGS GET CLOSER.
AFTER A COLD START TO THE WEEKEND SATURDAY MORNING...TEMPS WILL
TREND UP OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN HEIGHT RISES
BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO
ONTARIO AND ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE BACK SIDE...WE COULD SEE
SOME COOLER AIR BACKING IN FROM THE EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BUT THE AIRMASS CHANGE WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. CONDITIONS ARE STILL
PREDOMINANTLY DRY SUNDAY THRU TUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH KGRI AND KEAR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BUT LESS THAN 30 PERCENT SO LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE
TAF. A DECENT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT LOWERING CEILINGS AND INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN.
SHOULD BEGIN AROUND 09Z-10Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z BEFORE MOVING
EAST. WINDS SHOULD ALSO SWITCH TO THE NW AND INCREASE DURING THAT
TIME FRAME AS SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...EWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
649 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
INTERESTING MESO-BETA SCALE CHANGES ARE MODIFYING THE CONDITIONS
AND NECESSITATING SHORT-TERM CHANGES TO THE FCST. A SERIES OF
GRAVITY WAVES HAVE EMANATED FROM THE SHWR ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPED
OVER CUSTER COUNTY. THIS HAS INITIATED AN ARC OF CLEARING OF THE
STRATUS FROM NW-SE. THE SKY FCST WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED. WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NW BEHIND THESE WAVES...BUT ARE STILL LIGHT
ENOUGH WITH LOW DWPT DEPRESSIONS THAT THIS CLEARING COULD ALLOW
FOG TO REDEVELOP.
SO EXPECT A TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT OF SKY/VSBY...BUT VSBYS COULD
LOWER AGAIN IN FOG.
AN SPS WAS POSTED AT 520 AM FOR PATCHES OF DENSE FOG. IT EXPIRES
AT 630. WE WILL CONT TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR ANOTHER ISSUANCE. AT
THIS TIME...THE ONLY DENSE FOG WAS OVER PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL KS.
UPDATED FCST WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
ALOFT: A SHORTWAVE TROF WAS MOVING THRU EARLY THIS MORNING AND
HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH CLOUDS AND EVEN TSTMS
OVER FILLMORE/THAYER COUNTIES. ANOTHER MORE POTENT/AMPLIFIED TROF
WAS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. THIS TROF WILL CONT E AND WILL BE
MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS AT SUNRISE TOMORROW WITH ITS WAVELENGTH
SHORTENING.
SURFACE: A STATIONARY FRONT BISECTED CNTRL NEB/KS. THIS FRONT
WILL SHOW A GENERAL TENDENCY TO DRIFT E TODAY AND THEN ACCELERATE
S AND E OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR NEAR
PUB TODAY AND WILL LATCH ONTO THE FRONT TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL BE
A PLAYER IN OUR WX THU-FRI.
EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDY MOST AREAS WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE
VISIBILITIES IN PATCHY FOG. THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF 1/4SM
VISIBILITY AT TIMES. THE ONLY AREA THAT HAS HAD SUSTAINED 1/4SM IN
DENSE FOG IS LXN. IF THIS CONTS WE WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WX
STATEMENT /SPS/ BEFORE THE MORNING COMMUTE ENSUES.
SOME SHWRS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM THE SANDHILLS DOWN TO CUSTER
COUNTY. THESE SHWRS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL PORTION OF THE
COMMA CLOUD OVER CNTRL NEB AND COULD SKIRT THRU AREAS ALONG AND N
OF I-80 THRU 9 AM.
TODAY: WHATEVER FOG/STRATUS IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING SHOULD BEGIN
ERODING 9-10 AM AND BE GONE BY 1 PM. HOWEVER...THIS IS BASED JUST ON
PAST EXPERIENCE. THE MODELS DO NOT HANDLE STRATUS WELL. THE EDGES
OF THE STRATUS ARE NEARBY...SO DAYTIME HEATING AND BL MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR EROSION AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION. FOR WHAT IT`S
WORTH...THE 00Z NAM LOW CLOUD FCST INDICATES IMPROVEMENT...BUT THE
LAST AREAS TO IMPROVE WILL BE ALONG THE NEB HWY 81 CORRIDOR. THE
06Z HRRR IS ON BOARD WITH IMPROVEMENT FROM THE W. IT COULD
POTENTIALLY TAKE UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON TO CLEAR OUT THERE.
AS FOR AFTERNOON TSTM POTENTIAL. IT LOOKS DOUBTFUL IN THIS FCSTRS
ESTIMATION. WHILE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROFS DURING PEAK HEATING AND WEAK
LOW-LVL WINDS MEANS A LACK OF BL CONVERGENCE. FURTHERMORE...THERE
IS A LOT OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND CONSENSUS OF MOS
AND MODEL 2M TEMPS IS THAT DWPTS WILL MIX DOWN INTO THE 40S W OF
HWY 281 AND 50S TO THE E. THE EASTWARD DRIFT OF THE FRONT WILL
ALSO SHOVE HIGHER DWPTS E OF THE FCST AREA. THAT WILL CREATE CINH
WHICH SHOULD PUT A CAP ON POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION...
ESPECIALLY WITHOUT SOME HELP ALOFT. COORDINATED WITH SPC AND
PENDING EVALUATION OF MORNING SOUNDINGS...THEY MAY SCALE BACK THE
SLGT RISK AREA. VERY LOW POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM
...BUT COVERAGE JUST LOOKS WAY TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A SLGT.
WHILE THE 15Z AND 21Z SREF INDICATED SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TSTMS...THE 03Z CAME IN DRY IN THE 21Z-00Z TIME FRAME.
IF SOMETHING CAN FORM...SREF MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG IS FCST.
LOW-LVL WINDS WILL BE WEAK...BUT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35 KTS. WILL CONT MENTION IN THE HWO
BUT KNOW THAT THIS IS CONDITIONAL BASED IN "IF" A TSTM OR TWO
FORMS AT ALL.
HIGH TEMPS ARE BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE BASED ON STRATUS AND HOW
LONG IT LINGERS. AREAS ALONG HWY 81 YESTERDAY STAYED IN THE 60S
FOR HIGHS BECAUSE CLOUDS LINGERED LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.
SO BOTTOM LINE FOR TODAY...CLOUDY TO START WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING.
SHOULD BE A NICE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY.
TONIGHT: BECOMING CLOUDY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL
SUPERIMPOSE SUBSTANTIAL QG FORCING/LIFT OVERTOP THE FRONTAL
SURFACE... RESULTING IN DEEP LIFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BURST OF
SHWRS AND TSTMS...ALTHOUGH WANING INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY BRING
THE THREAT OF THUNDER TO AN END FROM NW-SE. FRONTOGENETIC BANDING
POTENTIAL SUGGESTS THIS COULD RESULT IN A SWATH OF HEALTHY
RAINFALL (0.75" TO 1") FOR SOME PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
A COUPLE OF UPPER TROUGHS/COLD FRONTS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
MILD WEATHER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. STARTING ON THURSDAY...AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WHICH DEVELOPS WED NIGHT WILL BE ONGOING
THURSDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES AND
CANNOT RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE BEFORE PCPN ENDS
W/E BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST DURING THE DAY...REACHING IA/EASTERN
KS IN THE AFTN. H85 TEMPS DROP NEARLY 10C FROM WED TO THURS BEHIND
THE FRONT AND HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID
60S.
AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THURSDAY...THE NEXT ONE WILL
BE ON ITS HEELS...DIVING SOUTH FM SASKATCHEWAN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT REACHES OUR NW CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND RAPIDLY SWEEPS
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THREE HOUR PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT
AVERAGE 3 TO 6 MB AND THE NOCTURNAL FROPA WILL BE NOTICEABLE WITH
AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS OVER 30/40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS N/NW NEBRASKA MAY
GENERATE LIGHT PCPN IN VCNTY OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...BUT WITH LLVL
MOISTURE LACKING HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY WITH SILENT POPS BUT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR PERHAPS A SPRINKLE MENTION.
FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO A COOL WINDY DAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES INTO IOWA. THE SFC GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT THRU THE DAY IN
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW/COLD FRONT TO THE EAST AND A 1025MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING ABOVE H85 WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
AVERAGING 40KTS AND IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE WILL LIKELY NEED A
WIND ADVISORY FRIDAY. IN CAA...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL ONLY AVERAGE IN
THE 50S/LOW 60S.
BIGGER CHANGES IN THE FORECAST COME IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD IN
THE COLD AIRMASS...AND WE COULD SEE THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON
IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. THE SFC GRADIENT RELAXES FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW DEPARTS AND THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS DEVELOP THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SFC DPS ARE PROGGED IN THE 20S AND TEMPS SHOULD EASILY DROP INTO
THE 30S FOR LOWS. HAVE WENT WITH TEMPS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
ACROSS OUR W/NW CWA...WITH MID 30S FARTHER SOUTH...AND THIS IS
BASED ON A BLEND AND THERE IS MODEL SUPPORT FOR TEMPS A SEVERAL
DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS FORECAST. WILL INCLUDE THE COLD TEMPS IN
THE HWO IF TRENDS CONTINUE MAY NEED A FREEZE/FROST HEADLINE AS
THINGS GET CLOSER.
AFTER A COLD START TO THE WEEKEND SATURDAY MORNING...TEMPS WILL
TREND UP OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN HEIGHT RISES
BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO
ONTARIO AND ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE BACK SIDE...WE COULD SEE
SOME COOLER AIR BACKING IN FROM THE EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BUT THE AIRMASS CHANGE WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. CONDITIONS ARE STILL
PREDOMINANTLY DRY SUNDAY THRU TUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
THIS MORNING: SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SKIES HAVE CLEARED AT EAR
AND WILL BE SHORTLY AT GRI. WHILE THIS HAS RESULTED IN TEMPORARY
IMPROVEMENT...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SUGGEST
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FOG TO REDEVELOP. SEE THE
LAST FEW OBS AT LXN. CONDS SHOULD DECAY THRU 13Z BUT RAPIDLY
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z GIVEN THE THIN/PATCHY NATURE OF THE FOG.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
AFTER 15Z: VFR. LIGHT NW WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
TONIGHT: VFR WITH CIRROSTRATUS CIGS INVADING AS SHWRS/TSTMS
DEVELOP UPSTREAM. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N BY 00Z AND REMAIN
UNDER 10 KTS. AFTER 06Z...MULTI-LAYERED CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
DESCEND WITH RAIN MOVING IN AFTER 09Z. AT THIS TIME...CIGS/VSBYS
ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND PREFERRED TO LEAVE VFR FOR NOW AND LET
MODEL GUIDANCE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON HOW THIS COULD EVOLVE. N
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS AFTER 06Z.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH THRU 06Z. LOW AFTER 06Z.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
620 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
INTERESTING MESO-BETA SCALE CHANGES ARE MODIFYING THE CONDITIONS
AND NECESSITATING SHORT-TERM CHANGES TO THE FCST. A SERIES OF
GRAVITY WAVES HAVE EMANATED FROM THE SHWR ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPED
OVER CUSTER COUNTY. THIS HAS INITIATED AN ARC OF CLEARING OF THE
STRATUS FROM NW-SE. THE SKY FCST WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED. WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NW BEHIND THESE WAVES...BUT ARE STILL LIGHT
ENOUGH WITH LOW DWPT DEPRESSIONS THAT THIS CLEARING COULD ALLOW
FOG TO REDEVELOP.
SO EXPECT A TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT OF SKY/VSBY...BUT VSBYS COULD
LOWER AGAIN IN FOG.
AN SPS WAS POSTED AT 520 AM FOR PATCHES OF DENSE FOG. IT EXPIRES
AT 630. WE WILL CONT TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR ANOTHER ISSUANCE. AT
THIS TIME...THE ONLY DENSE FOG WAS OVER PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL KS.
UPDATED FCST WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
ALOFT: A SHORTWAVE TROF WAS MOVING THRU EARLY THIS MORNING AND
HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH CLOUDS AND EVEN TSTMS
OVER FILLMORE/THAYER COUNTIES. ANOTHER MORE POTENT/AMPLIFIED TROF
WAS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. THIS TROF WILL CONT E AND WILL BE
MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS AT SUNRISE TOMORROW WITH ITS WAVELENGTH
SHORTENING.
SURFACE: A STATIONARY FRONT BISECTED CNTRL NEB/KS. THIS FRONT
WILL SHOW A GENERAL TENDENCY TO DRIFT E TODAY AND THEN ACCELERATE
S AND E OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR NEAR
PUB TODAY AND WILL LATCH ONTO THE FRONT TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL BE
A PLAYER IN OUR WX THU-FRI.
EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDY MOST AREAS WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE
VISIBILITIES IN PATCHY FOG. THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF 1/4SM
VISIBILITY AT TIMES. THE ONLY AREA THAT HAS HAD SUSTAINED 1/4SM IN
DENSE FOG IS LXN. IF THIS CONTS WE WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WX
STATEMENT /SPS/ BEFORE THE MORNING COMMUTE ENSUES.
SOME SHWRS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM THE SANDHILLS DOWN TO CUSTER
COUNTY. THESE SHWRS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL PORTION OF THE
COMMA CLOUD OVER CNTRL NEB AND COULD SKIRT THRU AREAS ALONG AND N
OF I-80 THRU 9 AM.
TODAY: WHATEVER FOG/STRATUS IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING SHOULD BEGIN
ERODING 9-10 AM AND BE GONE BY 1 PM. HOWEVER...THIS IS BASED JUST ON
PAST EXPERIENCE. THE MODELS DO NOT HANDLE STRATUS WELL. THE EDGES
OF THE STRATUS ARE NEARBY...SO DAYTIME HEATING AND BL MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR EROSION AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION. FOR WHAT IT`S
WORTH...THE 00Z NAM LOW CLOUD FCST INDICATES IMPROVEMENT...BUT THE
LAST AREAS TO IMPROVE WILL BE ALONG THE NEB HWY 81 CORRIDOR. THE
06Z HRRR IS ON BOARD WITH IMPROVEMENT FROM THE W. IT COULD
POTENTIALLY TAKE UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON TO CLEAR OUT THERE.
AS FOR AFTERNOON TSTM POTENTIAL. IT LOOKS DOUBTFUL IN THIS FCSTRS
ESTIMATION. WHILE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROFS DURING PEAK HEATING AND WEAK
LOW-LVL WINDS MEANS A LACK OF BL CONVERGENCE. FURTHERMORE...THERE
IS A LOT OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND CONSENSUS OF MOS
AND MODEL 2M TEMPS IS THAT DWPTS WILL MIX DOWN INTO THE 40S W OF
HWY 281 AND 50S TO THE E. THE EASTWARD DRIFT OF THE FRONT WILL
ALSO SHOVE HIGHER DWPTS E OF THE FCST AREA. THAT WILL CREATE CINH
WHICH SHOULD PUT A CAP ON POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION...
ESPECIALLY WITHOUT SOME HELP ALOFT. COORDINATED WITH SPC AND
PENDING EVALUATION OF MORNING SOUNDINGS...THEY MAY SCALE BACK THE
SLGT RISK AREA. VERY LOW POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM
...BUT COVERAGE JUST LOOKS WAY TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A SLGT.
WHILE THE 15Z AND 21Z SREF INDICATED SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TSTMS...THE 03Z CAME IN DRY IN THE 21Z-00Z TIME FRAME.
IF SOMETHING CAN FORM...SREF MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG IS FCST.
LOW-LVL WINDS WILL BE WEAK...BUT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35 KTS. WILL CONT MENTION IN THE HWO
BUT KNOW THAT THIS IS CONDITIONAL BASED IN "IF" A TSTM OR TWO
FORMS AT ALL.
HIGH TEMPS ARE BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE BASED ON STRATUS AND HOW
LONG IT LINGERS. AREAS ALONG HWY 81 YESTERDAY STAYED IN THE 60S
FOR HIGHS BECAUSE CLOUDS LINGERED LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.
SO BOTTOM LINE FOR TODAY...CLOUDY TO START WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING.
SHOULD BE A NICE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY.
TONIGHT: BECOMING CLOUDY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL
SUPERIMPOSE SUBSTANTIAL QG FORCING/LIFT OVERTOP THE FRONTAL
SURFACE... RESULTING IN DEEP LIFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BURST OF
SHWRS AND TSTMS...ALTHOUGH WANING INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY BRING
THE THREAT OF THUNDER TO AN END FROM NW-SE. FRONTOGENETIC BANDING
POTENTIAL SUGGESTS THIS COULD RESULT IN A SWATH OF HEALTHY
RAINFALL (0.75" TO 1") FOR SOME PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
A COUPLE OF UPPER TROUGHS/COLD FRONTS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
MILD WEATHER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. STARTING ON THURSDAY...AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WHICH DEVELOPS WED NIGHT WILL BE ONGOING
THURSDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES AND
CANNOT RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE BEFORE PCPN ENDS
W/E BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST DURING THE DAY...REACHING IA/EASTERN
KS IN THE AFTN. H85 TEMPS DROP NEARLY 10C FROM WED TO THURS BEHIND
THE FRONT AND HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID
60S.
AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THURSDAY...THE NEXT ONE WILL
BE ON ITS HEELS...DIVING SOUTH FM SASKATCHEWAN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT REACHES OUR NW CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND RAPIDLY SWEEPS
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THREE HOUR PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT
AVERAGE 3 TO 6 MB AND THE NOCTURNAL FROPA WILL BE NOTICEABLE WITH
AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS OVER 30/40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS N/NW NEBRASKA MAY
GENERATE LIGHT PCPN IN VCNTY OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...BUT WITH LLVL
MOISTURE LACKING HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY WITH SILENT POPS BUT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR PERHAPS A SPRINKLE MENTION.
FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO A COOL WINDY DAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES INTO IOWA. THE SFC GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT THRU THE DAY IN
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW/COLD FRONT TO THE EAST AND A 1025MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING ABOVE H85 WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
AVERAGING 40KTS AND IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE WILL LIKELY NEED A
WIND ADVISORY FRIDAY. IN CAA...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL ONLY AVERAGE IN
THE 50S/LOW 60S.
BIGGER CHANGES IN THE FORECAST COME IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD IN
THE COLD AIRMASS...AND WE COULD SEE THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON
IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. THE SFC GRADIENT RELAXES FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW DEPARTS AND THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS DEVELOP THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SFC DPS ARE PROGGED IN THE 20S AND TEMPS SHOULD EASILY DROP INTO
THE 30S FOR LOWS. HAVE WENT WITH TEMPS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
ACROSS OUR W/NW CWA...WITH MID 30S FARTHER SOUTH...AND THIS IS
BASED ON A BLEND AND THERE IS MODEL SUPPORT FOR TEMPS A SEVERAL
DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS FORECAST. WILL INCLUDE THE COLD TEMPS IN
THE HWO IF TRENDS CONTINUE MAY NEED A FREEZE/FROST HEADLINE AS
THINGS GET CLOSER.
AFTER A COLD START TO THE WEEKEND SATURDAY MORNING...TEMPS WILL
TREND UP OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN HEIGHT RISES
BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO
ONTARIO AND ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE BACK SIDE...WE COULD SEE
SOME COOLER AIR BACKING IN FROM THE EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BUT THE AIRMASS CHANGE WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. CONDITIONS ARE STILL
PREDOMINANTLY DRY SUNDAY THRU TUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
REST OF TONIGHT: VLIFR STRATUS SHOULD REMAINED LOCKED IN AROUND
200 FT. VSBYS WILL BE VARIABLE BETWEEN MVFR AND VLIFR IN FOG.
BELIEVE VSBYS WILL DECAY TO 1/2SM BY 10Z AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO
1/4SM. LIGHT SE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS...BUT A WINDSHIFT COULD MOVE IN
SHIFTING WINDS TO SW OR W.
CONFIDENCE: LOW
WED: VLIFR FOG/STRATUS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE BEGINNING 15Z WITH
CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING VFR 17Z-18Z. LIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDSHIFT BOUNDARIES MAKE WIND DIRECTION
UNCERTAIN...BUT SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: LOW...ESPECIALLY WITH TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
WED EVE: VFR WITH MID-HIGH CIGS INVADING FROM THE W AT AND ABOVE
15K FT. A COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY PASS THRU BY 00Z SHIFTING
WINDS TO N LESS THAN 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
408 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
...TODAY THE PROLONGED STRETCH OF VERY NICE WX WE`VE EXPERIENCED
SINCE MID SEP ENDS WITH MORE RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
TEMPORARY BUT NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN THU-FRI...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
ALOFT: A SHORTWAVE TROF WAS MOVING THRU EARLY THIS MORNING AND
HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH CLOUDS AND EVEN TSTMS
OVER FILLMORE/THAYER COUNTIES. ANOTHER MORE POTENT/AMPLIFIED TROF
WAS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. THIS TROF WILL CONT E AND WILL BE
MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS AT SUNRISE TOMORROW WITH ITS WAVELENGTH
SHORTENING.
SURFACE: A STATIONARY FRONT BISECTED CNTRL NEB/KS. THIS FRONT
WILL SHOW A GENERAL TENDENCY TO DRIFT E TODAY AND THEN ACCELERATE
S AND E OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR NEAR
PUB TODAY AND WILL LATCH ONTO THE FRONT TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL BE
A PLAYER IN OUR WX THU-FRI.
EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDY MOST AREAS WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE
VISIBILITIES IN PATCHY FOG. THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF 1/4SM
VISIBILITY AT TIMES. THE ONLY AREA THAT HAS HAD SUSTAINED 1/4SM IN
DENSE FOG IS LXN. IF THIS CONTS WE WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WX
STATEMENT /SPS/ BEFORE THE MORNING COMMUTE ENSUES.
SOME SHWRS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM THE SANDHILLS DOWN TO CUSTER
COUNTY. THESE SHWRS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL PORTION OF THE
COMMA CLOUD OVER CNTRL NEB AND COULD SKIRT THRU AREAS ALONG AND N
OF I-80 THRU 9 AM.
TODAY: WHATEVER FOG/STRATUS IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING SHOULD BEGIN
ERODING 9-10 AM AND BE GONE BY 1 PM. HOWEVER...THIS IS BASED JUST ON
PAST EXPERIENCE. THE MODELS DO NOT HANDLE STRATUS WELL. THE EDGES
OF THE STRATUS ARE NEARBY...SO DAYTIME HEATING AND BL MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR EROSION AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION. FOR WHAT IT`S
WORTH...THE 00Z NAM LOW CLOUD FCST INDICATES IMPROVEMENT...BUT THE
LAST AREAS TO IMPROVE WILL BE ALONG THE NEB HWY 81 CORRIDOR. THE
06Z HRRR IS ON BOARD WITH IMPROVEMENT FROM THE W. IT COULD
POTENTIALLY TAKE UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON TO CLEAR OUT THERE.
AS FOR AFTERNOON TSTM POTENTIAL. IT LOOKS DOUBTFUL IN THIS FCSTRS
ESTIMATION. WHILE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROFS DURING PEAK HEATING AND WEAK
LOW-LVL WINDS MEANS A LACK OF BL CONVERGENCE. FURTHERMORE...THERE
IS A LOT OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND CONSENSUS OF MOS
AND MODEL 2M TEMPS IS THAT DWPTS WILL MIX DOWN INTO THE 40S W OF
HWY 281 AND 50S TO THE E. THE EASTWARD DRIFT OF THE FRONT WILL
ALSO SHOVE HIGHER DWPTS E OF THE FCST AREA. THAT WILL CREATE CINH
WHICH SHOULD PUT A CAP ON POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION...
ESPECIALLY WITHOUT SOME HELP ALOFT. COORDINATED WITH SPC AND
PENDING EVALUATION OF MORNING SOUNDINGS...THEY MAY SCALE BACK THE
SLGT RISK AREA. VERY LOW POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM
...BUT COVERAGE JUST LOOKS WAY TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A SLGT.
WHILE THE 15Z AND 21Z SREF INDICATED SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TSTMS...THE 03Z CAME IN DRY IN THE 21Z-00Z TIME FRAME.
IF SOMETHING CAN FORM...SREF MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG IS FCST.
LOW-LVL WINDS WILL BE WEAK...BUT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35 KTS. WILL CONT MENTION IN THE HWO
BUT KNOW THAT THIS IS CONDITIONAL BASED IN "IF" A TSTM OR TWO
FORMS AT ALL.
HIGH TEMPS ARE BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE BASED ON STRATUS AND HOW
LONG IT LINGERS. AREAS ALONG HWY 81 YESTERDAY STAYED IN THE 60S
FOR HIGHS BECAUSE CLOUDS LINGERED LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.
SO BOTTOM LINE FOR TODAY...CLOUDY TO START WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING.
SHOULD BE A NICE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY.
TONIGHT: BECOMING CLOUDY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL
SUPERIMPOSE SUBSTANTIAL QG FORCING/LIFT OVERTOP THE FRONTAL
SURFACE... RESULTING IN DEEP LIFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BURST OF
SHWRS AND TSTMS...ALTHOUGH WANING INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY BRING
THE THREAT OF THUNDER TO AN END FROM NW-SE. FRONTOGENETIC BANDING
POTENTIAL SUGGESTS THIS COULD RESULT IN A SWATH OF HEALTHY
RAINFALL (0.75" TO 1") FOR SOME PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
A COUPLE OF UPPER TROUGHS/COLD FRONTS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
MILD WEATHER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. STARTING ON THURSDAY...AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WHICH DEVELOPS WED NIGHT WILL BE ONGOING
THURSDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES AND
CANNOT RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE BEFORE PCPN ENDS
W/E BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST DURING THE DAY...REACHING IA/EASTERN
KS IN THE AFTN. H85 TEMPS DROP NEARLY 10C FROM WED TO THURS BEHIND
THE FRONT AND HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID
60S.
AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THURSDAY...THE NEXT ONE WILL
BE ON ITS HEELS...DIVING SOUTH FM SASKATCHEWAN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT REACHES OUR NW CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND RAPIDLY SWEEPS
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THREE HOUR PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT
AVERAGE 3 TO 6 MB AND THE NOCTURNAL FROPA WILL BE NOTICEABLE WITH
AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS OVER 30/40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS N/NW NEBRASKA MAY
GENERATE LIGHT PCPN IN VCNTY OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...BUT WITH LLVL
MOISTURE LACKING HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY WITH SILENT POPS BUT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR PERHAPS A SPRINKLE MENTION.
FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO A COOL WINDY DAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES INTO IOWA. THE SFC GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT THRU THE DAY IN
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW/COLD FRONT TO THE EAST AND A 1025MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING ABOVE H85 WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
AVERAGING 40KTS AND IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE WILL LIKELY NEED A
WIND ADVISORY FRIDAY. IN CAA...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL ONLY AVERAGE IN
THE 50S/LOW 60S.
BIGGER CHANGES IN THE FORECAST COME IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD IN
THE COLD AIRMASS...AND WE COULD SEE THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON
IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. THE SFC GRADIENT RELAXES FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW DEPARTS AND THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS DEVELOP THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SFC DPS ARE PROGGED IN THE 20S AND TEMPS SHOULD EASILY DROP INTO
THE 30S FOR LOWS. HAVE WENT WITH TEMPS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
ACROSS OUR W/NW CWA...WITH MID 30S FARTHER SOUTH...AND THIS IS
BASED ON A BLEND AND THERE IS MODEL SUPPORT FOR TEMPS A SEVERAL
DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS FORECAST. WILL INCLUDE THE COLD TEMPS IN
THE HWO IF TRENDS CONTINUE MAY NEED A FREEZE/FROST HEADLINE AS
THINGS GET CLOSER.
AFTER A COLD START TO THE WEEKEND SATURDAY MORNING...TEMPS WILL
TREND UP OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN HEIGHT RISES
BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO
ONTARIO AND ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE BACK SIDE...WE COULD SEE
SOME COOLER AIR BACKING IN FROM THE EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BUT THE AIRMASS CHANGE WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. CONDITIONS ARE STILL
PREDOMINANTLY DRY SUNDAY THRU TUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
REST OF TONIGHT: VLIFR STRATUS SHOULD REMAINED LOCKED IN AROUND
200 FT. VSBYS WILL BE VARIABLE BETWEEN MVFR AND VLIFR IN FOG.
BELIEVE VSBYS WILL DECAY TO 1/2SM BY 10Z AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO
1/4SM. LIGHT SE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS...BUT A WINDSHIFT COULD MOVE IN
SHIFTING WINDS TO SW OR W.
CONFIDENCE: LOW
WED: VLIFR FOG/STRATUS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE BEGINNING 15Z WITH
CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING VFR 17Z-18Z. LIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDSHIFT BOUNDARIES MAKE WIND DIRECTION
UNCERTAIN...BUT SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: LOW...ESPECIALLY WITH TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
WED EVE: VFR WITH MID-HIGH CIGS INVADING FROM THE W AT AND ABOVE
15K FT. A COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY PASS THRU BY 00Z SHIFTING
WINDS TO N LESS THAN 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1245 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
JUST PUBLISHED A SIGNIFICANT ENHANCED SHORT-TERM FCST /ESTF/
UPDATE.
WE MAY NEED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE FCST AREA BEFORE
DAWN.
THIS AFTERNOON THERE WAS A SUBSTANTIAL DWPT BOUNDARY BISECTING THE
FCST AREA FROM BVN-GRI-PHG-HLC. STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ON THE MOIST
SIDE. WINDS ARE CONSIDERABLY MORE SE THAN EXPECTED 24 HRS AGO AND
THIS HAS TRANSPORTED THESE HIGHER DWPTS NW. THE DWPT AT EAR
DROPPED TO 43F...BUT NOW WAS IN THE LOW 60S. SO FOG HAS DEVELOPED.
AND WHILE ODX/LXN ARE STILL 10SM CLR...THE TREND IS ESTABLISHED
AND THE GOES FOG PRODUCT HAS IT. STRATUS/FOG WILL BE INVADING
SHORTLY.
SO CLOUDS/FOG HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED THRU 18Z. AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
IMPROVEMENT IN FOG/STRATUS UNTIL 15Z. BASED ON INCREASING CLOUDS
...HAVE ADJUSTED TEMP/DWPTS UPWARD W OF HWY 183 WHERE THEY SHOULD
THEN HOLD STEADY THE REST OF THE NIGHT UNDER THE STRATUS.
THE HRRR IS INDICATING A WINDSHIFT TO THE W TO MOVE INTO THE WRN
HALF OF THE FCST AREA BEFORE SUNRISE. THIS COMPLICATES THE FCST
AND LOWERS CONFIDENCE AS IT COULD ADVECT LOWER DWPTS BACK IN...
REDUCING THE STRATUS/FOG. ANOTHER COMPLICATION IS THE THICK MID-
HIGH CLOUDS OVER WRN NEB/KS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROF. THE AFFECT THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE ON THE STRATUS
REMAINS UNCLEAR.
TSTMS CONT TO FORM BETWEEN HSI AND HJH. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. 88D ESTIMATES 3-4"
OF RAIN FELL OVER ERN THAYER COUNTY. THE AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGE AT
ALEXANDRIA MEASURED 3.31" SINCE 8 PM. SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
HYDRO ISSUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF A ~40KT JET
STREAK JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...WITH THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS JET STREAK CLIPPING OUR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THERMAL ADVECTION ALONG THIS AXIS APPEARS AS
THOUGH IT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST...A SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC. THAT SAID...SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
FROM SEVERAL MODELS REMAIN VERY PESSIMISTIC WITH RESPECT TO
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT AND WITH THE
PRIMARY JET STREAK AXIS REMAINING TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT CERTAINLY
SEEMS TO BE A FAIR ARGUMENT. THAT SAID...OF ANY TIME PERIOD
BETWEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND 12Z WEDNESDAY...THE 03-09Z TIME
PERIOD SEEMS TO HOLD THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION ACROSS OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD
AND RELEGATED THE HIGHEST POPS...~50%...TO OUR SOUTHEAST 03-09Z
TONIGHT.
THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...POST-SUNRISE...WILL LIKELY
PRESENT A DRY PERIOD TO THE AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC JET AXIS WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST 12-18Z AS A RESULT. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOWEVER...INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
THERMAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
WEST...WORKING IN CONCERT WITH THE THERMALLY-INDIRECT CIRCULATION
WITHIN THE LEFT- FRONT QUADRANT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK...COULD BE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION MOST ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT
AHEAD WITH 20-40% POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH POPS INCREASING TO AROUND 70% AFTER 06Z
THURSDAY FOR MANY LOCATIONS AS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS
DRAWS CLOSER TO THE AREA THUS RESULTING IN INCREASING OMEGA.
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE CLOSED LOW/SHORT WAVE REMAINING
WELL NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA. THAT SAID...AFTERNOON SURFACE DEW
POINT READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE HELPING PROMOTE
POTENTIAL ENERGY VALUES OF 1000-1500J/KG ACROSS OUR EAST
SOUTHEAST. DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40KTS ARE
ALSO IN EXISTENCE. GIVEN ALL THIS...IT CERTAINLY SEEMS
POSSIBLE...SHOULD CONVECTION BE REALIZED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THAT A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS COULD BE
REALIZED AND WILL CONTINUE SUCH MENTION IN THE HWO. LOOKING AHEAD
TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS
SHOULD NOT CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND AS A RESULT...WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING POTENTIAL ENERGY VALUES TO BE CLOSER TO
2000J/KG. IN ADDITION...INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY
SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN INCREASING DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR...WITH
VALUES CLOSER TO 45 OR 50KTS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA
ON WEDNESDAY. FINALLY...A BACKED BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD TO THE
SOUTH OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY ALSO PROMOTE LOCALLY ENHANCED
BOUNDARY-LAYER SRH VALUES THUS PROMOTING THE POSSIBILITY OF
TORNADIC ACTIVITY. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING TORNADIC ACTIVITY...IN THE HWO FOR FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LIE WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RIGHT OFF THE BAT...THEN TEMPERATURES.
THE START OF THE PERIOD HAS MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH THE LATEST UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAKING ITS WAY EAST INTO THE REGION. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS SET UP JUST WEST OF THE CWA AT SUNRISE
THURSDAY...WITH THE INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL LIFT OUT AHEAD OF
THE AXIS BRINGING CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MAINLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AT THE SURFACE...TIMING/LOCATION OF THE
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT MATCHES UP FAIRLY WELL BETWEEN
MODELS...SHOWING IT EITHER RIGHT OVER THE SERN CORNER OF THE
CWA...OR JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA BOUNDARY. THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS...THE MAIN STORY LIES WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN
END...AND COOLER AIR BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DID INCREASE POPS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
THINGS HANGING A BIT LONGER...BUT TRENDED THINGS DOWN FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN PLACE WITH HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY MAY LINGER...SO HAVE SOME SCATTERED THUNDER MENTION IN
THE EAST...WITH JUST SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE
DIMINISHING SKY COVER WITH TIME...BUT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS LOOK
TO HANG ON FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WERE MADE TO HIGH TEMPS FOR THURSDAY...WHICH REMAIN IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...AS THE LATEST DISTURBANCE KEEPS
SHIFTING EAST AND RIDGING IS BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST. KEPT
THE DRY FORECAST GOING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER.
MODELS SHOWING THE AREA BEING IN THE EXIT REGION OF A HEFTY 120+KT
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NOSING IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA...THINKING
THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS
DRY...BUT THE LATEST ECMWF TRIES BRINGING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE SOUTH INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH ITS RESULTANT QPF.
WANT TO SEE IF THAT FEATURE REMAINS IN UPCOMING RUNS BEFORE
JUMPING ON BOARD. THE GFS KEEPS THAT DISTURBANCE WELL TO THE
NORTH...AND ANY PRECIP WOULD BE JET STREAK DRIVEN.
AS WE GET INTO FRIDAY...THAT NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
MAIN FLOW WILL BRING A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION...AND LOOKS TO RESULT IN FRIDAY BEING THE COOLEST DAY OF
THE 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
SURGE OF COOLER AIR. EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY NW WINDS...THOUGH THEY SHOULD START DIMINISHING
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SFC HIGH BECOMING MORE OF A
PLAYER. DID LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...WITH THE FORECAST NOW
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHEAST TO MID 60S IN THE SW.
BIGGEST CHANGE MADE TO FRIDAY WAS TO KNOCK DOWN DEWPOINTS. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING NOTABLY DRIER AIR WORKING IN...AND
FORECAST DEWPOINTS IN SOME LOCATIONS WERE DECREASED BY AROUND 10
DEGREES.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK...ANY NOTABLE CHANGES OCCURRED WITH TEMPERATURES...AS THE DRY
FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINING A WELL AMPLIFIED WITH
NWRLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND ANY DISTURBANCES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE N/NE OF THE CWA. THE COOLEST PART OF THE
AIR MASS WHICH BUILDS IN AT THE END OF THE WEEK STARTS TO SHIFT
OFF TO THE EAST...BUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE CWA TO KEEP HIGHS FOR SAT IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S...WITH ANOTHER BUMP UP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
FOR SUN. A PRETTY NICE WEEKEND...NOT A WHOLE LOT IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS EXPECTED...AND WHILE SUNDAY MAY BE A TOUCH BREEZIER...SAT
WIND LOOK TO TOP OUT ARND 10 MPH. NO NOTABLE CHANGES EXPECTED AS
WE GET INTO MON/TUE...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOWER/MID
70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
REST OF TONIGHT: VLIFR STRATUS SHOULD REMAINED LOCKED IN AROUND
200 FT. VSBYS WILL BE VARIABLE BETWEEN MVFR AND VLIFR IN FOG.
BELIEVE VSBYS WILL DECAY TO 1/2SM BY 10Z AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO
1/4SM. LIGHT SE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS...BUT A WINDSHIFT COULD MOVE IN
SHIFTING WINDS TO SW OR W.
CONFIDENCE: LOW
WED: VLIFR FOG/STRATUS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE BEGINNING 15Z WITH
CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING VFR 17Z-18Z. LIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDSHIFT BOUNDARIES MAKE WIND DIRECTION
UNCERTAIN...BUT SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: LOW...ESPECIALLY WITH TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
WED EVE: VFR WITH MID-HIGH CIGS INVADING FROM THE W AT AND ABOVE
15K FT. A COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY PASS THRU BY 00Z SHIFTING
WINDS TO N LESS THAN 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1205 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
JUST PUBLISHED A SIGNIFICANT ENHANCED SHORT-TERM FCST /ESTF/
UPDATE.
WE MAY NEED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE FCST AREA BEFORE
DAWN.
THIS AFTERNOON THERE WAS A SUBSTANTIAL DWPT BOUNDARY BISECTING THE
FCST AREA FROM BVN-GRI-PHG-HLC. STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ON THE MOIST
SIDE. WINDS ARE CONSIDERABLY MORE SE THAN EXPECTED 24 HRS AGO AND
THIS HAS TRANSPORTED THESE HIGHER DWPTS NW. THE DWPT AT EAR
DROPPED TO 43F...BUT NOW WAS IN THE LOW 60S. SO FOG HAS DEVELOPED.
AND WHILE ODX/LXN ARE STILL 10SM CLR...THE TREND IS ESTABLISHED
AND THE GOES FOG PRODUCT HAS IT. STRATUS/FOG WILL BE INVADING
SHORTLY.
SO CLOUDS/FOG HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED THRU 18Z. AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
IMPROVEMENT IN FOG/STRATUS UNTIL 15Z. BASED ON INCREASING CLOUDS
...HAVE ADJUSTED TEMP/DWPTS UPWARD W OF HWY 183 WHERE THEY SHOULD
THEN HOLD STEADY THE REST OF THE NIGHT UNDER THE STRATUS.
THE HRRR IS INDICATING A WINDSHIFT TO THE W TO MOVE INTO THE WRN
HALF OF THE FCST AREA BEFORE SUNRISE. THIS COMPLICATES THE FCST
AND LOWERS CONFIDENCE AS IT COULD ADVECT LOWER DWPTS BACK IN...
REDUCING THE STRATUS/FOG. ANOTHER COMPLICATINO IS THE THICK MID-
HIGH CLOUDS OVER WRN NEB/KS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROF. THE AFFECT THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE ON THE STRATUS
REMAINS UNCLEAR.
TSTMS CONT TO FORM BETWEEN HSI AND HJH. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. 88D ESTIMATES 3-4"
OF RAIN FELL OVER ERN THAYER COUNTY. THE AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGE AT
ALEXANDRIA MEASURED 3.31" SINCE 8 PM. SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
HYDRO ISSUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF A ~40KT JET
STREAK JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...WITH THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS JET STREAK CLIPPING OUR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THERMAL ADVECTION ALONG THIS AXIS APPEARS AS
THOUGH IT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST...A SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC. THAT SAID...SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
FROM SEVERAL MODELS REMAIN VERY PESSIMISTIC WITH RESPECT TO
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT AND WITH THE
PRIMARY JET STREAK AXIS REMAINING TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT CERTAINLY
SEEMS TO BE A FAIR ARGUMENT. THAT SAID...OF ANY TIME PERIOD
BETWEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND 12Z WEDNESDAY...THE 03-09Z TIME
PERIOD SEEMS TO HOLD THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION ACROSS OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD
AND RELEGATED THE HIGHEST POPS...~50%...TO OUR SOUTHEAST 03-09Z
TONIGHT.
THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...POST-SUNRISE...WILL LIKELY
PRESENT A DRY PERIOD TO THE AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC JET AXIS WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST 12-18Z AS A RESULT. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOWEVER...INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
THERMAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
WEST...WORKING IN CONCERT WITH THE THERMALLY-INDIRECT CIRCULATION
WITHIN THE LEFT- FRONT QUADRANT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK...COULD BE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION MOST ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT
AHEAD WITH 20-40% POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH POPS INCREASING TO AROUND 70% AFTER 06Z
THURSDAY FOR MANY LOCATIONS AS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS
DRAWS CLOSER TO THE AREA THUS RESULTING IN INCREASING OMEGA.
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE CLOSED LOW/SHORT WAVE REMAINING
WELL NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA. THAT SAID...AFTERNOON SURFACE DEW
POINT READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE HELPING PROMOTE
POTENTIAL ENERGY VALUES OF 1000-1500J/KG ACROSS OUR EAST
SOUTHEAST. DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40KTS ARE
ALSO IN EXISTENCE. GIVEN ALL THIS...IT CERTAINLY SEEMS
POSSIBLE...SHOULD CONVECTION BE REALIZED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THAT A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS COULD BE
REALIZED AND WILL CONTINUE SUCH MENTION IN THE HWO. LOOKING AHEAD
TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS
SHOULD NOT CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND AS A RESULT...WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING POTENTIAL ENERGY VALUES TO BE CLOSER TO
2000J/KG. IN ADDITION...INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY
SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN INCREASING DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR...WITH
VALUES CLOSER TO 45 OR 50KTS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA
ON WEDNESDAY. FINALLY...A BACKED BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD TO THE
SOUTH OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY ALSO PROMOTE LOCALLY ENHANCED
BOUNDARY-LAYER SRH VALUES THUS PROMOTING THE POSSIBILITY OF
TORNADIC ACTIVITY. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING TORNADIC ACTIVITY...IN THE HWO FOR FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LIE WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RIGHT OFF THE BAT...THEN TEMPERATURES.
THE START OF THE PERIOD HAS MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH THE LATEST UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAKING ITS WAY EAST INTO THE REGION. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS SET UP JUST WEST OF THE CWA AT SUNRISE
THURSDAY...WITH THE INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL LIFT OUT AHEAD OF
THE AXIS BRINGING CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MAINLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AT THE SURFACE...TIMING/LOCATION OF THE
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT MATCHES UP FAIRLY WELL BETWEEN
MODELS...SHOWING IT EITHER RIGHT OVER THE SERN CORNER OF THE
CWA...OR JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA BOUNDARY. THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS...THE MAIN STORY LIES WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN
END...AND COOLER AIR BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DID INCREASE POPS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
THINGS HANGING A BIT LONGER...BUT TRENDED THINGS DOWN FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN PLACE WITH HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY MAY LINGER...SO HAVE SOME SCATTERED THUNDER MENTION IN
THE EAST...WITH JUST SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE
DIMINISHING SKY COVER WITH TIME...BUT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS LOOK
TO HANG ON FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WERE MADE TO HIGH TEMPS FOR THURSDAY...WHICH REMAIN IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...AS THE LATEST DISTURBANCE KEEPS
SHIFTING EAST AND RIDGING IS BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST. KEPT
THE DRY FORECAST GOING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER.
MODELS SHOWING THE AREA BEING IN THE EXIT REGION OF A HEFTY 120+KT
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NOSING IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA...THINKING
THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS
DRY...BUT THE LATEST ECMWF TRIES BRINGING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE SOUTH INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH ITS RESULTANT QPF.
WANT TO SEE IF THAT FEATURE REMAINS IN UPCOMING RUNS BEFORE
JUMPING ON BOARD. THE GFS KEEPS THAT DISTURBANCE WELL TO THE
NORTH...AND ANY PRECIP WOULD BE JET STREAK DRIVEN.
AS WE GET INTO FRIDAY...THAT NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
MAIN FLOW WILL BRING A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION...AND LOOKS TO RESULT IN FRIDAY BEING THE COOLEST DAY OF
THE 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
SURGE OF COOLER AIR. EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY NW WINDS...THOUGH THEY SHOULD START DIMINISHING
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SFC HIGH BECOMING MORE OF A
PLAYER. DID LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...WITH THE FORECAST NOW
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHEAST TO MID 60S IN THE SW.
BIGGEST CHANGE MADE TO FRIDAY WAS TO KNOCK DOWN DEWPOINTS. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING NOTABLY DRIER AIR WORKING IN...AND
FORECAST DEWPOINTS IN SOME LOCATIONS WERE DECREASED BY AROUND 10
DEGREES.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK...ANY NOTABLE CHANGES OCCURRED WITH TEMPERATURES...AS THE DRY
FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINING A WELL AMPLIFIED WITH
NWRLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND ANY DISTURBANCES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE N/NE OF THE CWA. THE COOLEST PART OF THE
AIR MASS WHICH BUILDS IN AT THE END OF THE WEEK STARTS TO SHIFT
OFF TO THE EAST...BUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE CWA TO KEEP HIGHS FOR SAT IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S...WITH ANOTHER BUMP UP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
FOR SUN. A PRETTY NICE WEEKEND...NOT A WHOLE LOT IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS EXPECTED...AND WHILE SUNDAY MAY BE A TOUCH BREEZIER...SAT
WIND LOOK TO TOP OUT ARND 10 MPH. NO NOTABLE CHANGES EXPECTED AS
WE GET INTO MON/TUE...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOWER/MID
70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINAL...WITH GENERALLY ONLY PASSING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME. AS WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CLEARING WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOP.
WHILE SOME GUIDANCE IS BRINGING DENSE FOG...OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE
THIS FOR THE TIME BEING AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW...RATHER INSERTED
MVFR VSBYS IN BR FOR THE TIME BEING. OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
WEDNESDAY...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS EXPECT AHEAD OF
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE...EXPECTED JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT VALID
PERIOD OF THE TAF.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
700 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATE FRIDAY... AND SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM WEDNESDAY...
FOR TODAY: AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT... THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING... FOSTERED BY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. THUS FAR THE LOWEST VSBYS HAVE BEEN OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW
THIS FOG/STRATUS SPREADING OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS... AND NOT IMPROVING UNTIL THE 14Z-16Z TIME
FRAME... REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE SLOW DISPERSION SEEN YESTERDAY.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH MID MORNING. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE POCKETS OF VERY
LIGHT MIST WITHIN THE MORE DENSE FOG. THE DISSOLUTION OF THE
FOG/STRATUS WILL POST THE NEXT CHALLENGE... GIVEN YESTERDAY`S SLOW
IMPROVEMENT... AND WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE AS WELL AS THE HRRR
TRENDS AND SHOW SLOWLY INCREASING SUNSHINE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH THE SUN BREAKING THROUGH LAST OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER. EXPECT A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS... NOTED ON IR AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY... NOW EXTEND OVER TN INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AND ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE UNDERCUTTING THE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL... THIS EQUATES TO A TREND FROM
DAYBREAK FOG/STRATUS TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THICKNESSES
ARE 5-10 M HIGHER THAN NORMAL... SO EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 OVER PIEDMONT (WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THE LONGEST) TO
THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.
FOR TONIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS... LIKELY LESS WIDESPREAD AND
LESS DENSE THAN THIS MORNING OR YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE FEW
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD... NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
SHOT OF MOISTURE IN THE 925-700 MB LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE MASS
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL RETREATING WARM FRONT. THE
NAM IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH SUCH CLOUDS THAN THE GFS... SO SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT AND COVERAGE REMAINS. BUT IF THESE
CLOUDS COME TO PASS... THEY WOULD MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
WILL REFRAIN FROM INCLUDING FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW... AS IT
COULD SIMPLY BE LIGHT FOG. WILL SHOW A TREND TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NE. MILD LOWS OF 58-62. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...
FOR THU/THU NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL CLIPPER LOW CONTINUES MOVING OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST THU/THU NIGHT... WHILE DEEP AND AMPLIFYING MID
LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTS EAST OVER THE PLAINS.... AND THIS WILL BRING
A MODEST MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER NC. THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEAKLY TO THE SW/SOUTH
INTO NC... ALTHOUGH ITS SOUTHERN END WILL START TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
A BIT TO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO THE ENCROACHING WARM SECTOR AND
SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SW. EXPECT FAIR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRENGTHENS (ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NC). THE MODELS DEVELOP PATCHES OF VERY
LIGHT PRECIP OVER CENTRAL/ERN NC EARLY THU THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...
WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE VA PIEDMONT THU NIGHT.
WITH THE MID LEVELS STILL DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE
ALOFT... ANY MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WOULD BE ROOTED VERY
LOW. AND AT THIS TIME... WE DON`T QUITE SEE THE LIFT AND MOISTURE
NECESSARY FOR ANYTHING BETTER THAN SPRINKLES. THUS... WILL LEAVE
POPS UNDER 15% AND MENTION NOTHING GREATER THAN SPRINKLES.
THICKNESSES INCH UP FURTHER... SUGGESTING HIGHS NEAR 80 TO 84
(COOLER READINGS NORTHEAST). LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S... AND WE
SHOULD SEE AREAS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG THU NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING STORM SYSTEM. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER
MID-WEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEY. A POTENT COLD FRONT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS NORTHWARD TREK INTO CANADA.
THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND THE PRECEDING CONVECTION. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE MODELS SINCE THE LAST FORECAST UPDATE...THUS HAVE KEPT RAINFALL
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS NEARLY THE SAME. EXPECT CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM
NW TO EAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...DECREASING
AGAIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS DESCENT SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINED
WITH THE LATE DIURNAL TIMING...SHOULD MINIMIZE THE SEVERE THREAT.
EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID 50S NW TO MID 60S SE...ALTHOUGH BOTH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE CONVECTION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ONCE THE PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES YIELDING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST SHOULD ALSO BE MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT
MORE UNCERTAINTY AND DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL AGAIN BE DEPENDENT ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT MID 60S NW
TO MID 70S SE WHILE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...MID 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE THE LOWEST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MEANWHILE...LOWS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM WEDNESDAY...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD AT ALL SITE UNTIL MID
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAS
PROMPTED FORMATION OF WIDESPREAD FOG... DENSE IN SPOTS. THIS FOG IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z BEFORE SLOWLY DISPERSING. AFTER
THIS TIME... EXPECT A TREND TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF
SITES THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY... AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
OVER THE REGION. RENEWED MVFR OR IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
STARTING SOON AFTER 06Z EARLY THU MORNING... HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER THAN TODAY... AS THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER CLOUDS COULD CURB
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY
LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z THU MORNING... MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN FOG MAY LAST
UNTIL 13Z OR 14Z THU MORNING. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THU. A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT RWI/FAY THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING... BUT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. PATCHY
FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP EARLY FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING INCREASING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT
AFTERNOON... LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
255 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATE FRIDAY... AND SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM WEDNESDAY...
FOR TODAY: AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT... THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING... FOSTERED BY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. THUS FAR THE LOWEST VSBYS HAVE BEEN OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW
THIS FOG/STRATUS SPREADING OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS... AND NOT IMPROVING UNTIL THE 14Z-16Z TIME
FRAME... REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE SLOW DISPERSION SEEN YESTERDAY.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH MID MORNING. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE POCKETS OF VERY
LIGHT MIST WITHIN THE MORE DENSE FOG. THE DISSOLUTION OF THE
FOG/STRATUS WILL POST THE NEXT CHALLENGE... GIVEN YESTERDAY`S SLOW
IMPROVEMENT... AND WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE AS WELL AS THE HRRR
TRENDS AND SHOW SLOWLY INCREASING SUNSHINE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH THE SUN BREAKING THROUGH LAST OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER. EXPECT A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS... NOTED ON IR AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY... NOW EXTEND OVER TN INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AND ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE UNDERCUTTING THE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL... THIS EQUATES TO A TREND FROM
DAYBREAK FOG/STRATUS TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THICKNESSES
ARE 5-10 M HIGHER THAN NORMAL... SO EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 OVER PIEDMONT (WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THE LONGEST) TO
THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.
FOR TONIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS... LIKELY LESS WIDESPREAD AND
LESS DENSE THAN THIS MORNING OR YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE FEW
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD... NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
SHOT OF MOISTURE IN THE 925-700 MB LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE MASS
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL RETREATING WARM FRONT. THE
NAM IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH SUCH CLOUDS THAN THE GFS... SO SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT AND COVERAGE REMAINS. BUT IF THESE
CLOUDS COME TO PASS... THEY WOULD MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
WILL REFRAIN FROM INCLUDING FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW... AS IT
COULD SIMPLY BE LIGHT FOG. WILL SHOW A TREND TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NE. MILD LOWS OF 58-62. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...
FOR THU/THU NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL CLIPPER LOW CONTINUES MOVING OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST THU/THU NIGHT... WHILE DEEP AND AMPLIFYING MID
LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTS EAST OVER THE PLAINS.... AND THIS WILL BRING
A MODEST MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER NC. THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEAKLY TO THE SW/SOUTH
INTO NC... ALTHOUGH ITS SOUTHERN END WILL START TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
A BIT TO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO THE ENCROACHING WARM SECTOR AND
SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SW. EXPECT FAIR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRENGTHENS (ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NC). THE MODELS DEVELOP PATCHES OF VERY
LIGHT PRECIP OVER CENTRAL/ERN NC EARLY THU THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...
WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE VA PIEDMONT THU NIGHT.
WITH THE MID LEVELS STILL DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE
ALOFT... ANY MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WOULD BE ROOTED VERY
LOW. AND AT THIS TIME... WE DON`T QUITE SEE THE LIFT AND MOISTURE
NECESSARY FOR ANYTHING BETTER THAN SPRINKLES. THUS... WILL LEAVE
POPS UNDER 15% AND MENTION NOTHING GREATER THAN SPRINKLES.
THICKNESSES INCH UP FURTHER... SUGGESTING HIGHS NEAR 80 TO 84
(COOLER READINGS NORTHEAST). LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S... AND WE
SHOULD SEE AREAS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG THU NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING STORM SYSTEM. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER
MID-WEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEY. A POTENT COLD FRONT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS NORTHWARD TREK INTO CANADA.
THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND THE PRECEDING CONVECTION. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE MODELS SINCE THE LAST FORECAST UPDATE...THUS HAVE KEPT RAINFALL
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS NEARLY THE SAME. EXPECT CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM
NW TO EAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...DECREASING
AGAIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS DESCENT SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINED
WITH THE LATE DIURNAL TIMING...SHOULD MINIMIZE THE SEVERE THREAT.
EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID 50S NW TO MID 60S SE...ALTHOUGH BOTH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE CONVECTION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ONCE THE PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES YIELDING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST SHOULD ALSO BE MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT
MORE UNCERTAINTY AND DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL AGAIN BE DEPENDENT ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT MID 60S NW
TO MID 70S SE WHILE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...MID 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE THE LOWEST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MEANWHILE...LOWS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM WEDNESDAY...
CHANCES ARE GOOD FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT RDU/RWI/FAY UNTIL MID
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAS
PROMPTED FORMATION OF AREAS OF FOG... DENSE IN SPOTS. THIS FOG IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN NC OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS... HOLDING THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z BEFORE SLOWLY DISPERSING.
THERE IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY AT INT/GSO... WHERE FOG IS CURRENTLY
LIGHT/PATCHY... AND HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT PLACES THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE FOG/STRATUS JUST EAST OF THE TRIAD AREA. WILL HAVE SCTD LOW
STRATUS AND LIGHTER FOG AT INT/GSO... WHILE AT RDU/RWI/FAY... WILL
INDICATE LIFR CIGS/VSBYS UNTIL 14Z/15Z. AFTER THIS TIME... EXPECT A
TREND TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY... AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE REGION. RENEWED
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD
(06Z THU). SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY THU MORNING... MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND AFFECT CENTRAL NC TERMINALS FROM 08Z-13Z THU
MORNING. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THU. A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT RWI/FAY THU AFTERNOON/EVENING... BUT
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP
EARLY FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT AFTERNOON... LASTING
THROUGH SUNDAY. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
250 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATE FRIDAY... AND SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM WEDNESDAY...
FOR TODAY: AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT... THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING... FOSTERED BY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. THUS FAR THE LOWEST VSBYS HAVE BEEN OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW
THIS FOG/STRATUS SPREADING OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS... AND NOT IMPROVING UNTIL THE 14Z-16Z TIME
FRAME... REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE SLOW DISPERSION SEEN YESTERDAY.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH MID MORNING. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE POCKETS OF VERY
LIGHT MIST WITHIN THE MORE DENSE FOG. THE DISSOLUTION OF THE
FOG/STRATUS WILL POST THE NEXT CHALLENGE... GIVEN YESTERDAY`S SLOW
IMPROVEMENT... AND WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE AS WELL AS THE HRRR
TRENDS AND SHOW SLOWLY INCREASING SUNSHINE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH THE SUN BREAKING THROUGH LAST OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER. EXPECT A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS... NOTED ON IR AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY... NOW EXTEND OVER TN INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AND ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE UNDERCUTTING THE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL... THIS EQUATES TO A TREND FROM
DAYBREAK FOG/STRATUS TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THICKNESSES
ARE 5-10 M HIGHER THAN NORMAL... SO EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 OVER PIEDMONT (WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THE LONGEST) TO
THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.
FOR TONIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS... LIKELY LESS WIDESPREAD AND
LESS DENSE THAN THIS MORNING OR YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE FEW
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD... NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
SHOT OF MOISTURE IN THE 925-700 MB LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE MASS
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL RETREATING WARM FRONT. THE
NAM IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH SUCH CLOUDS THAN THE GFS... SO SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT AND COVERAGE REMAINS. BUT IF THESE
CLOUDS COME TO PASS... THEY WOULD MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
WILL REFRAIN FROM INCLUDING FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW... AS IT
COULD SIMPLY BE LIGHT FOG. WILL SHOW A TREND TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NE. MILD LOWS OF 58-62. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...
FOR THU/THU NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL CLIPPER LOW CONTINUES MOVING OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST THU/THU NIGHT... WHILE DEEP AND AMPLIFYING MID
LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTS EAST OVER THE PLAINS.... AND THIS WILL BRING
A MODEST MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER NC. THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEAKLY TO THE SW/SOUTH
INTO NC... ALTHOUGH ITS SOUTHERN END WILL START TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
A BIT TO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO THE ENCROACHING WARM SECTOR AND
SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SW. EXPECT FAIR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRENGTHENS (ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NC). THE MODELS DEVELOP PATCHES OF VERY
LIGHT PRECIP OVER CENTRAL/ERN NC EARLY THU THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...
WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE VA PIEDMONT THU NIGHT.
WITH THE MID LEVELS STILL DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE
ALOFT... ANY MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WOULD BE ROOTED VERY
LOW. AND AT THIS TIME... WE DON`T QUITE SEE THE LIFT AND MOISTURE
NECESSARY FOR ANYTHING BETTER THAN SPRINKLES. THUS... WILL LEAVE
POPS UNDER 15% AND MENTION NOTHING GREATER THAN SPRINKLES.
THICKNESSES INCH UP FURTHER... SUGGESTING HIGHS NEAR 80 TO 84
(COOLER READINGS NORTHEAST). LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S... AND WE
SHOULD SEE AREAS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG THU NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING STORM SYSTEM. -GIH
FROM 235 PM TUESDAY... FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: MODELS INDICATE
PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS ACROSS THE UPPER
MS VALLEY/UPR MIDWEST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT PASSAGE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING...EXITING EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING REALLY SHEARS OUT/DAMPENS
AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...RESULTING IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH EASTWARD
ADVANCING 30-35KT SWLY LLJ FOCUSING STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN A BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT.
LATE DIURNAL TIMING AND MODEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
LIMITED/WEAK INSTABILITY(200-400 MUCAPE)...THWARTING ANY SEVERE
THREAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT...DECREASING WEST TO EAST DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS
FRONT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM
WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF A 0.25-
0.50". MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON ARRIVAL/ONSET OF
SHOWERS/CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. UNDER THICKENING CLOUD
COVER...A BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY RANGING FROM MID 70S WEST TO
LOWER 80S EAST. MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON WEST-EAST TIMING OF FROPA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE AREA...RANGING FROM LOWER/MID 50S NORTHWEST
TO LOWER/MID 60S SE. -CBL
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SHIFTING EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IN WHICH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL HELP SUPPORT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.
TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STILL IN QUESTION AS NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. UNTIL MODEL DISCREPANCIES CAN BE IRONED OUT WITH THIS CLIPPER-
LIKE TROUGH...WILL INDICATE CONSERVATIVE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM WEDNESDAY...
CHANCES ARE GOOD FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT RDU/RWI/FAY UNTIL MID
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAS
PROMPTED FORMATION OF AREAS OF FOG... DENSE IN SPOTS. THIS FOG IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN NC OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS... HOLDING THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z BEFORE SLOWLY DISPERSING.
THERE IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY AT INT/GSO... WHERE FOG IS CURRENTLY
LIGHT/PATCHY... AND HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT PLACES THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE FOG/STRATUS JUST EAST OF THE TRIAD AREA. WILL HAVE SCTD LOW
STRATUS AND LIGHTER FOG AT INT/GSO... WHILE AT RDU/RWI/FAY... WILL
INDICATE LIFR CIGS/VSBYS UNTIL 14Z/15Z. AFTER THIS TIME... EXPECT A
TREND TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY... AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE REGION. RENEWED
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD
(06Z THU). SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY THU MORNING... MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND AFFECT CENTRAL NC TERMINALS FROM 08Z-13Z THU
MORNING. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THU. A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT RWI/FAY THU AFTERNOON/EVENING... BUT
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP
EARLY FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT AFTERNOON... LASTING
THROUGH SUNDAY. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
235 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATE FRIDAY... AND SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM WEDNESDAY...
FOR TODAY: AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT... THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING... FOSTERED BY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. THUS FAR THE LOWEST VSBYS HAVE BEEN OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW
THIS FOG/STRATUS SPREADING OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS... AND NOT IMPROVING UNTIL THE 14Z-16Z TIME
FRAME... REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE SLOW DISPERSION SEEN YESTERDAY.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH MID MORNING. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE POCKETS OF VERY
LIGHT MIST WITHIN THE MORE DENSE FOG. THE DISSOLUTION OF THE
FOG/STRATUS WILL POST THE NEXT CHALLENGE... GIVEN YESTERDAY`S SLOW
IMPROVEMENT... AND WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE AS WELL AS THE HRRR
TRENDS AND SHOW SLOWLY INCREASING SUNSHINE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH THE SUN BREAKING THROUGH LAST OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER. EXPECT A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS... NOTED ON IR AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY... NOW EXTEND OVER TN INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AND ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE UNDERCUTTING THE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL... THIS EQUATES TO A TREND FROM
DAYBREAK FOG/STRATUS TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THICKNESSES
ARE 5-10 M HIGHER THAN NORMAL... SO EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 OVER PIEDMONT (WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THE LONGEST) TO
THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.
FOR TONIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS... LIKELY LESS WIDESPREAD AND
LESS DENSE THAN THIS MORNING OR YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE FEW
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD... NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
SHOT OF MOISTURE IN THE 925-700 MB LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE MASS
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL RETREATING WARM FRONT. THE
NAM IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH SUCH CLOUDS THAN THE GFS... SO SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT AND COVERAGE REMAINS. BUT IF THESE
CLOUDS COME TO PASS... THEY WOULD MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
WILL REFRAIN FROM INCLUDING FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW... AS IT
COULD SIMPLY BE LIGHT FOG. WILL SHOW A TREND TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NE. MILD LOWS OF 58-62. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE OVER THE
AREA...DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD
OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. IF CURRENT TIMING
HOLDS UP...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS REMAIN STRONGLY CAPPED ALOFT...WITH STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST-
EAST. HIGHS 80 TO 85. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: MODELS INDICATE PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPR MIDWEST AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN REALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
PASSAGE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING...EXITING
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE
LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY FRIDAY
MORNING REALLY SHEARS OUT/DAMPENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO MID-
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...RESULTING IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WITH EASTWARD ADVANCING 30-35KT SWLY LLJ FOCUSING STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN A BAND OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. LATE DIURNAL TIMING AND MODEST LAPSE
RATES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LIMITED/WEAK INSTABILITY(200-400
MUCAPE)...THWARTING ANY SEVERE THREAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...DECREASING WEST TO EAST
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS FRONT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST.
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF A 0.25-0.50".
MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON ARRIVAL/ONSET OF
SHOWERS/CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. UNDER THICKENING CLOUD
COVER...A BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY RANGING FROM MID 70S WEST TO
LOWER 80S EAST. MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON WEST-EAST TIMING OF FROPA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE AREA...RANGING FROM LOWER/MID 50S NORTHWEST
TO LOWER/MID 60S SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SHIFTING EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IN WHICH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL HELP SUPPORT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.
TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STILL IN QUESTION AS NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. UNTIL MODEL DISCREPANCIES CAN BE IRONED OUT WITH THIS CLIPPER-
LIKE TROUGH...WILL INDICATE CONSERVATIVE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM WEDNESDAY...
CHANCES ARE GOOD FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT RDU/RWI/FAY UNTIL MID
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAS
PROMPTED FORMATION OF AREAS OF FOG... DENSE IN SPOTS. THIS FOG IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN NC OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS... HOLDING THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z BEFORE SLOWLY DISPERSING.
THERE IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY AT INT/GSO... WHERE FOG IS CURRENTLY
LIGHT/PATCHY... AND HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT PLACES THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE FOG/STRATUS JUST EAST OF THE TRIAD AREA. WILL HAVE SCTD LOW
STRATUS AND LIGHTER FOG AT INT/GSO... WHILE AT RDU/RWI/FAY... WILL
INDICATE LIFR CIGS/VSBYS UNTIL 14Z/15Z. AFTER THIS TIME... EXPECT A
TREND TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY... AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE REGION. RENEWED
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD
(06Z THU). SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY THU MORNING... MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND AFFECT CENTRAL NC TERMINALS FROM 08Z-13Z THU
MORNING. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THU. A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT RWI/FAY THU AFTERNOON/EVENING... BUT
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP
EARLY FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT AFTERNOON... LASTING
THROUGH SUNDAY. -GIH
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1019 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
WATCHING THE HOURLY UPDATES FROM THE RAP MODEL AND HRRR MODEL AND
SEEING INCOMING 00Z NAM SEEM TO INDICATE A BIT WEAKER PRECIP BAND
AND A FARTHER SOUTHEAST SHIFT AND SLOWER TIMING ON WHEN 500 MB LOW
WILL CLOSE OFF. 00Z NAM INDICATES THIS WILL OCCUR LATER FRIDAY BUT
NEAR BRAINERD. HRRR/RAP HAVE MOSTLY LIGHT PRECIP THRU FRIDAY IN
NW/NCNTRL MN...AND TEMPS LOOK ABOUT 1-2 DEG WARMER AS WELL. ALL IN
ALL IT IS LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP AND NOT
ENOUGH INTENSITY TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN NW MN. I DO
THINK BEST CHANCE WOULD NOW BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM EASTERN
MARSHALL CO MN TOWARD BAGLEY-LAKE ITASCA THEN INTO THE OSAGE HILLS
BETWEEN PARK RAPIDS AND DETROIT LAKES. SO DID EDIT TEMPS/POPS/QPF
FOR THIS AND LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS TO MORE THE 1-2 INCH RANGE IN
THAT AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
BAND OF SHOWERS WITH FRONT MOVING THRU THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
ACTUAL MAIN STRONG WIND AND FALLING TEMPS LAG THE RAIN SHOWERS
ABOUT 1 HOUR. BY THE FAR THE BIGGEST REMAINS WHAT HAPPENS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND
UPPER LOW FORMS SOMEWHERE IN NRN MN. HOW MUCH PRECIP FORMS IN A
BAND WEST-NORTHWEST OF UPPER LOW FRIDAY....WHERE WILL IT BE AND
TEMPS IN BAND. HRRR/RAP ALL INDICATE IDEA OF PRECIP IN THE NRN RRV
TOWARD 12Z AND THEN WORKING SOUTHEAST...BUT SFC TEMPS APPEAR TO BE
MORE IN THE 36-37 RANGE. THE LAST 2 RAP MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN VERY
DISORGANIZED WITH PRECIP IN THE RRV AND NW MN AND HAS VERY LITTLE
QPF COMPARED TO SOME PAST RUNS. 18Z NAM/GFS TARGETS NOW
SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA-ROSEAU AREA. THUS ALL OVER THE PLACE AND
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW STILL IN WHERE/HOW MUCH ACCUMULATION WILL
OCCUR. DID TWEEK SNOW BAND AMOUNTS AND USED LATEST HRRR/RAP TEMPS
WHICH ARE A 1-2 DEG WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAD IN THE EARLIER GRIDS.
THUS END RESULT WAS A TIGHTENING OF THE SNOWFALL GRADIENT BUT
STILL INDICATE BEST BET OF 3 INCHES HALLOCK-THIEF RIVER-FOSSTON
WITH A SHARP EDGE EITHER SIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS COMPLEX UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NAM/GFS HAVE COME INTO PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM NORTHEAST ND INTO
NW MN...IN A NARROW BAND FROM NW TO SE. STRONG WINDS ARE NEARLY A
SURE BET ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY...WITH VERY COLD AIR
ADVECTING IN BEHIND FRONT.
FOR THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF VERY GUSTY WINDS RIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...PERHAPS
ENHANCED NEAR ANY STORMS. W/NW WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AND GUST
TO 40MPH ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL WITH
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE NORTH FROM
9Z-12Z...AND SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE LATE DEPENDING ON
WHERE HEAVIER SNOW BAND SETS UP. SNOW RATES WILL HAVE TO BE HIGH
FOR ACCUMULATIONS...BUT GIVEN THE FORCING THIS IS POSSIBLE.
ON FRIDAY...IT WILL BE VERY WINDY...COLD...WITH A BAND OF SNOW
LIKELY FROM EXTREME NE ND INTO NW MN...THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS
SNOW BAND IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...AND IF SNOW RATES WILL
OVERCOME VERY WARM GROUND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND NEAR A HCO-CKN-FSE LINE...AND GFK COULD BE
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF SOME LIGHT ACCUMS. ONE THING IS FOR
SURE...THERE WILL BE 50KT TO MIX AND IT WILL BE VERY WIND IN THE
VALLEY...AND IF HEAVY SNOW FALLS WITH THESE WINDS...VSBYS WILL BE
REDUCED. WE WILL ISSUE AN SPS AND HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL AND
HOLD ON ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WITH SOME QUESTIONS TO EXACT
PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL ACCUMULATING SNOW. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
SOMEONE TO GET UP TO 4 INCHES...SO WE WILL MONITOR CLOSELY. TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 30S WHERE IT DOES SNOW AND LOW 40S FAR
WEST.
FOR FRI NIGHT...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE EAST
THROUGH 3Z...AND TAPER OFF THEREAFTER. THERE COULD BE A WIDESPREAD
FREEZE IF SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS CALM DOWN...BUT IT WILL BE COLD
EITHER WAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
SATURDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH 500MB WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. AS A
RESULT THE CWFA WILL BE UNDER NORTHERLY CYCLONIC FLOW PROVIDING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT POP CHC THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY TO MONDAY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. THE 500MB
TROUGH WILL MEANDER OVER ONTARIO AND BRING ANOTHER VORT MAX...BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MAKING MONDAY THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY...500MB TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST WITH
NW FLOW BECOMING LESS NW AND MORE ZONAL ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO
MODERATE INTO THE 50S AND 60S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND 30S FOR LOWS.
SLIGHT TO CHC POPS WITH THIS FLOW REGIME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
GIVEN BY THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 706 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
SHOWER BAND INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH ADDITONAL SHOWERS AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT INTO THE NRN VALLEY. WINDS PICKING UP WITH WEST-
NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 35 KTS DVL-FAR-GFK-TVF ALL NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
BJI WINDS TURNING WEST AND INCREASING AFTER 04Z. TVF AIRPORT IS IN
BEST LOCATION FOR PSBL WET SNOW FRIDAY 12Z TO 18Z. MIX OF MVFR/LOW
END VFR CIGS THRU FRIDAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ001>003-027-029-030-
040.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ004-005-007-
008-013>016-022-023-028-031.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1013 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD A WINTRY MIX IN LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS THROUGH
THE HAZEN AREA TONIGHT GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND SOCIAL MEDIA
REPORTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS ARE FOR THE STRATUS TO BEGIN TO CLEAR
FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE 06-08 UTC TIME FRAME.
THUS...SUB-FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS APPEAR LIKELY FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM BOWBELLS TO HETTINGER...AND A FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
WIND HIGHLIGHTS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE IF STRATUS CLEARS ACROSS THE
WEST...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO POSSIBLY FALL BELOW FREEZING.
THE 19-21 UTC RAP ITERATIONS AND THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS
SUGGEST THIS WOULD ONLY OCCUR RATHER LATE TONIGHT...AROUND 10-12
UTC...IF AT ALL. THUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT...AND
ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE FREEZE POTENTIAL AND ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTY FROM CLOUD COVER. WILL MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH
THE EVENING SHOULD A FREEZE WARNING BE NEEDED WITH LATER UPDATES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WINDS. COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED NEAR RUGBY IN THE
PAST HOUR. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE CARRINGTON AREA DOWN TO
LINTON AND ASHLEY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA YET THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA.
REGARDING WINDS...THE GREATEST FALL-RISE COUPLET THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DROP THROUGH THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE GIVING THEM A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS. DECENT FALL-RISE COUPLET AND THE STRONGEST
COLD ADVECTION THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH THE STRONGEST GRADIENT
WINDS OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIQUID THIS EVENING...EXCEPT
PERHAPS IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. AFTER
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S WEST TO MID 30S EAST...FRIDAY WILL REMAIN
COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A LULL IN
THE WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED
TO PICK UP AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE. THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN OVER
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AREAS TO THE WEST ARE EXPECTED TO SEE THE MIXING LAYER
LIFT INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A
POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE WIND ADVISORY INTO THE SOUTHWEST-SOUTH
CENTRAL DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS FREEZING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
CLIPPER. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR RAPID DIURNAL COOLING. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS
POINT IT SEEMS FAIRLY LIKELY THAT A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE IS IN
STORE FOR MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA. IF TRENDS CONTINUE A FREEZE
WATCH/WARNING IS LIKELY BY THIS TIME TOMORROW.
FURTHER INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING IN A FEW CLIPPERS. THE 12 UTC GFS/NAM/ECMWF HAVE ONE
ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THESE CLIPPERS.
BY MIDWEEK NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD TURN MORE ZONAL. THIS SHOULD
BRING A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE MID
60S RETURNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
GENERALLY VFR STRATUS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...SLOWLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM CDT /2 AM MDT/ TO 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/
FRIDAY FOR NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-
021>023-025-036-037-048-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
943 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS ARE FOR THE STRATUS TO BEGIN TO CLEAR
FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE 06-08 UTC TIME FRAME.
THUS...SUB-FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS APPEAR LIKELY FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM BOWBELLS TO HETTINGER...AND A FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
WIND HIGHLIGHTS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE IF STRATUS CLEARS ACROSS THE
WEST...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO POSSIBLY FALL BELOW FREEZING.
THE 19-21 UTC RAP ITERATIONS AND THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS
SUGGEST THIS WOULD ONLY OCCUR RATHER LATE TONIGHT...AROUND 10-12
UTC...IF AT ALL. THUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT...AND
ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE FREEZE POTENTIAL AND ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTY FROM CLOUD COVER. WILL MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH
THE EVENING SHOULD A FREEZE WARNING BE NEEDED WITH LATER UPDATES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WINDS. COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED NEAR RUGBY IN THE
PAST HOUR. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE CARRINGTON AREA DOWN TO
LINTON AND ASHLEY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA YET THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA.
REGARDING WINDS...THE GREATEST FALL-RISE COUPLET THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DROP THROUGH THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE GIVING THEM A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS. DECENT FALL-RISE COUPLET AND THE STRONGEST
COLD ADVECTION THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH THE STRONGEST GRADIENT
WINDS OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIQUID THIS EVENING...EXCEPT
PERHAPS IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. AFTER
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S WEST TO MID 30S EAST...FRIDAY WILL REMAIN
COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A LULL IN
THE WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED
TO PICK UP AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE. THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN OVER
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AREAS TO THE WEST ARE EXPECTED TO SEE THE MIXING LAYER
LIFT INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A
POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE WIND ADVISORY INTO THE SOUTHWEST-SOUTH
CENTRAL DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS FREEZING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
CLIPPER. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR RAPID DIURNAL COOLING. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS
POINT IT SEEMS FAIRLY LIKELY THAT A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE IS IN
STORE FOR MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA. IF TRENDS CONTINUE A FREEZE
WATCH/WARNING IS LIKELY BY THIS TIME TOMORROW.
FURTHER INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING IN A FEW CLIPPERS. THE 12 UTC GFS/NAM/ECMWF HAVE ONE
ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THESE CLIPPERS.
BY MIDWEEK NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD TURN MORE ZONAL. THIS SHOULD
BRING A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE MID
60S RETURNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
GENERALLY VFR STRATUS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...SLOWLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM CDT /2 AM MDT/ TO 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/
FRIDAY FOR NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-
021>023-025-036-037-048-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
714 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 706 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
BAND OF SHOWERS WITH FRONT MOVING THRU THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
ACTUAL MAIN STRONG WIND AND FALLING TEMPS LAG THE RAIN SHOWERS
ABOUT 1 HOUR. BY THE FAR THE BIGGEST REMAINS WHAT HAPPENS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND
UPPER LOW FORMS SOMEWHERE IN NRN MN. HOW MUCH PRECIP FORMS IN A
BAND WEST-NORTHWEST OF UPPER LOW FRIDAY....WHERE WILL IT BE AND
TEMPS IN BAND. HRRR/RAP ALL INDICATE IDEA OF PRECIP IN THE NRN RRV
TOWARD 12Z AND THEN WORKING SOUTHEAST...BUT SFC TEMPS APPEAR TO BE
MORE IN THE 36-37 RANGE. THE LAST 2 RAP MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN VERY
DISORGANIZED WITH PRECIP IN THE RRV AND NW MN AND HAS VERY LITTLE
QPF COMPARED TO SOME PAST RUNS. 18Z NAM/GFS TARGETS NOW
SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA-ROSEAU AREA. THUS ALL OVER THE PLACE AND
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW STILL IN WHERE/HOW MUCH ACCUMULATION WILL
OCCUR. DID TWEEK SNOW BAND AMOUNTS AND USED LATEST HRRR/RAP TEMPS
WHICH ARE A 1-2 DEG WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAD IN THE EARLIER GRIDS.
THUS END RESULT WAS A TIGHTENING OF THE SNOWFALL GRADIENT BUT
STILL INDICATE BEST BET OF 3 INCHES HALLOCK-THIEF RIVER-FOSSTON
WITH A SHARP EDGE EITHER SIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS COMPLEX UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NAM/GFS HAVE COME INTO PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM NORTHEAST ND INTO
NW MN...IN A NARROW BAND FROM NW TO SE. STRONG WINDS ARE NEARLY A
SURE BET ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY...WITH VERY COLD AIR
ADVECTING IN BEHIND FRONT.
FOR THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF VERY GUSTY WINDS RIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...PERHAPS
ENHANCED NEAR ANY STORMS. W/NW WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AND GUST
TO 40MPH ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL WITH
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE NORTH FROM
9Z-12Z...AND SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE LATE DEPENDING ON
WHERE HEAVIER SNOW BAND SETS UP. SNOW RATES WILL HAVE TO BE HIGH
FOR ACCUMULATIONS...BUT GIVEN THE FORCING THIS IS POSSIBLE.
ON FRIDAY...IT WILL BE VERY WINDY...COLD...WITH A BAND OF SNOW
LIKELY FROM EXTREME NE ND INTO NW MN...THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS
SNOW BAND IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...AND IF SNOW RATES WILL
OVERCOME VERY WARM GROUND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND NEAR A HCO-CKN-FSE LINE...AND GFK COULD BE
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF SOME LIGHT ACCUMS. ONE THING IS FOR
SURE...THERE WILL BE 50KT TO MIX AND IT WILL BE VERY WIND IN THE
VALLEY...AND IF HEAVY SNOW FALLS WITH THESE WINDS...VSBYS WILL BE
REDUCED. WE WILL ISSUE AN SPS AND HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL AND
HOLD ON ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WITH SOME QUESTIONS TO EXACT
PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL ACCUMULATING SNOW. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
SOMEONE TO GET UP TO 4 INCHES...SO WE WILL MONITOR CLOSELY. TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 30S WHERE IT DOES SNOW AND LOW 40S FAR
WEST.
FOR FRI NIGHT...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE EAST
THROUGH 3Z...AND TAPER OFF THEREAFTER. THERE COULD BE A WIDESPREAD
FREEZE IF SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS CALM DOWN...BUT IT WILL BE COLD
EITHER WAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
SATURDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH 500MB WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. AS A
RESULT THE CWFA WILL BE UNDER NORTHERLY CYCLONIC FLOW PROVIDING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT POP CHC THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY TO MONDAY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. THE 500MB
TROUGH WILL MEANDER OVER ONTARIO AND BRING ANOTHER VORT MAX...BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MAKING MONDAY THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY...500MB TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST WITH
NW FLOW BECOMING LESS NW AND MORE ZONAL ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO
MODERATE INTO THE 50S AND 60S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND 30S FOR LOWS.
SLIGHT TO CHC POPS WITH THIS FLOW REGIME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
GIVEN BY THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 706 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
SHOWER BAND INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH ADDITONAL SHOWERS AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT INTO THE NRN VALLEY. WINDS PICKING UP WITH WEST-
NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 35 KTS DVL-FAR-GFK-TVF ALL NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
BJI WINDS TURNING WEST AND INCREASING AFTER 04Z. TVF AIRPORT IS IN
BEST LOCATION FOR PSBL WET SNOW FRIDAY 12Z TO 18Z. MIX OF MVFR/LOW
END VFR CIGS THRU FRIDAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ001>003-027-029-030-
040.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ004-005-007-
008-013>016-022-023-028-031.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
609 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
WIND HIGHLIGHTS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE IF STRATUS CLEARS ACROSS THE
WEST...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO POSSIBLY FALL BELOW FREEZING.
THE 19-21 UTC RAP ITERATIONS AND THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS
SUGGEST THIS WOULD ONLY OCCUR RATHER LATE TONIGHT...AROUND 10-12
UTC...IF AT ALL. THUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT...AND
ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE FREEZE POTENTIAL AND ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTY FROM CLOUD COVER. WILL MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH
THE EVENING SHOULD A FREEZE WARNING BE NEEDED WITH LATER UPDATES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WINDS. COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED NEAR RUGBY IN THE
PAST HOUR. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE CARRINGTON AREA DOWN TO
LINTON AND ASHLEY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA YET THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA.
REGARDING WINDS...THE GREATEST FALL-RISE COUPLET THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DROP THROUGH THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE GIVING THEM A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS. DECENT FALL-RISE COUPLET AND THE STRONGEST
COLD ADVECTION THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH THE STRONGEST GRADIENT
WINDS OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIQUID THIS EVENING...EXCEPT
PERHAPS IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. AFTER
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S WEST TO MID 30S EAST...FRIDAY WILL REMAIN
COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A LULL IN
THE WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED
TO PICK UP AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE. THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN OVER
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AREAS TO THE WEST ARE EXPECTED TO SEE THE MIXING LAYER
LIFT INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A
POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE WIND ADVISORY INTO THE SOUTHWEST-SOUTH
CENTRAL DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS FREEZING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
CLIPPER. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR RAPID DIURNAL COOLING. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS
POINT IT SEEMS FAIRLY LIKELY THAT A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE IS IN
STORE FOR MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA. IF TRENDS CONTINUE A FREEZE
WATCH/WARNING IS LIKELY BY THIS TIME TOMORROW.
FURTHER INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING IN A FEW CLIPPERS. THE 12 UTC GFS/NAM/ECMWF HAVE ONE
ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THESE CLIPPERS.
BY MIDWEEK NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD TURN MORE ZONAL. THIS SHOULD
BRING A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE MID
60S RETURNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
GENERALLY VFR STRATUS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT...SLOWLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40
KTS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-021.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ022-023-025-036-037-
048-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
103 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
SURFACE LOW WAS NEAR HARVEY...WITH SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW IN
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND WESTERLY WINDS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL...EAST WINDS WERE
TURNING NORTHERLY AROUND THE LOW. AREA OF SHOWERS WAS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...LIFTING NORTHWARD. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS
WAS OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
HAVE KEPT THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL...THEN RAIN CHANCES DECREASING WITH TIME AS THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA BY/BEFORE DAYBREAK.
THE HRRR MODEL INDICATED THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE WAS FAVORED
FOR SOME FOG THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE VICINITY OF THE LOW IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL...HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG.
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE MAIN FEATURES. HOURLY TEMPS AND
WINDS WERE ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
SURFACE LOW HAS SHIFTED INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHILE
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS
WAY NORTH. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FOR EVENING UPDATE AS
ONLY LIGHTNING WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER EASTERN MONTANA.
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AS
SUGGESTED BY HIGH-RES MODELS SO HAVE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AREA AS LOW LIFTS ITS WAY INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT STRETCHES FROM NORTH/EAST OF BISMARCK DOWN
TOWARDS ELLENDALE IN AREA THAT HAD SOME CLEARING EARLIER AND IS
NOW BEING FED BY WARMER/MOIST AIR PULLING IN FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD
OF THE LOW. INITIAL STORM PRODUCED A TORNADO JUST OVER THE BORDER
IN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE STRONGER SHEAR IS NOTED. MODEST SEVERE
THREAT CONTINUES...THOUGH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING AS STORMS CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED IN CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA BETWEEN FAITH...PHILIP AND PIERRE. INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS
EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THEN
DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. LATEST 19Z/18Z RAP/HRRR
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR DOES SHOW INCREASING
REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER FROM AROUND HETTINGER TO
SELFRIDGE AND LIFTING NORTH NORTHWEST. THUS THINK THE MESOSCALE
MODELS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT.
WHETHER OR NOT WE GET THE CONVECTION IS STILL QUESTIONABLE. CLOUD
COVER HAS LIMITED INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON THUS MINIMIZING THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...FORCING WITH THE STACKED SYSTEM
MAY YET BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDER. IF THAT DOES
OCCUR THE STRONG LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND BULK SHEAR WOULD BE ENOUGH
THAT A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST OR POSSIBLE WEAK TORNADO COULD
OCCUR. THE BEST GUESS FOR PLACEMENT WOULD BE MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE FROM JUST WEST OF THE BISMARCK MANDAN
AREA...EAST TO NEAR JAMESTOWN AND ELLENDALE...AND PERHAPS AS FAR
NORTH AS THE HARVEY AND CARRINGTON AREAS. TIMING IS EXPECTED TO BE
FROM BEGINNING AROUND 21 UTC IN THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...AND ENDING
AROUND 02 UTC WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA...WITH PERHAPS SOME
LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE WEST COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AND THE COLD AIR PUSHING IN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THE 12 UTC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A THE LARGE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES PROGRESSING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY
00 UTC FRIDAY. A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT. AFTER 00
UTC FRIDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DEVIATE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE 12 UTC
GFS IS BY FAR THE FASTEST WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH...PUSHING ALL PRECIPITATION EAST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY FRIDAY 00 UTC. THE 12 UTC ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND DEEPEST
OF THE SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF SOLUTION EVEN PLACES A 500 MB CLOSED LOW
OVER NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AT 06 UTC AND HAS WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION
LINGERING THROUGH 18 UTC FRIDAY. FOR THE FORECAST HAVE WENT WITH THE
LATEST 12 UTC GEM NHEM WHICH SEEMS TO BE A 50/50 SPLIT OF THE LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION THAT COMES TRUE CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR
WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE THURSDAY FRIDAY SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY
MORNING. WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW. THE
TRICKY PART WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION COMES
THROUGH ALONG WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.
SATURDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THERE COLDEST ACROSS THE
STATE...LOWER 30S TO UPPER 20S. IF ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS BEHIND THE
SYSTEM A FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL...ESPECIALLY NORTH
CENTRAL...PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VIS WILL REMAIN THIS MORNING AS CLOUD
SHIELD ROTATES AROUND THE SURFACE LOW - WHICH WAS NEAR HARVEY AT
05Z. EXPECT THE LOW TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO MANITOBA BY
DAYBREAK. SOUTH WINDS AT KJMS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AFT 08Z/10Z. WEST
WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z-18Z
AND CIGS TO BECOME VFR BY 18Z. WINDS DECREASING BY 00Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1142 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
SFC/500 MB LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF MINOT MOVING NORTH. SHOWERS
MOSTLY CONCENTRATED JUST WEST OF DVL REGION ON EDGE OF FCST AREA
WITH ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN REPORTED OVER FCST AREA (MAINLY
SPRINKLES). DRY SLOT (AT LEAST IN TERMS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE)
MOVING INTO SE ND AND THIS WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL RRV OVERNIGHT
PER CEILING PROGS FROM LATEST HRRR MODEL. THREAT FOR SHOWERS
DIMINISHING FURTHER OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY SOUTH WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
TWEEKING POPS THIS EVENING. MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS THAT MOVED INTO
THE RRV LATE THIS AFTN HAS SINCE WEAKENED AND MOSTLY FALLEN APART
AS IT RAIN INTO DRY AIR OVER NW MN. UPPER LOW WEST OF BISMARCK
WITH SFC LOW IN SIMILAR LOCATION MOVING NORTH AS EXPECTED. BRIEF
CLEARING IN DRY SLOT IN THE ABERDEEN-HURON SD AREA MID AFTN LEAD
TO A NARROW BAND OF T-STORMS SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK TO WEST OF
ABERDEEN AND THESE ARE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER LOW
BUT WITH MUCH MORE STABLE AIR IN SE ND THEY ARE WEAKENING. HRRR
SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON HOURLY PRECIP AND HAS THE REMAINING
SHOWER BAND DRYING UP AS IT MOVES INTO SE ND TOWARD FARGO BY 03Z.
THIS WOULD LEAVE MUCH OF THE RRV/NW AND WCNTRL MN DRY OVERNIGHT.
DID TWEEK POPS TO INDICATE THAT IDEA BUT DID LEAVE IN SOME LOW
POPS PERHAPS A BIT LONGER THAN OTHERWISE WOULD DUE TO
UNCERTAINITIES. BETTER BET FOR SHOWERS IN DVL BASIN SO KEPT HIGHER
POPS THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD FOCUSES ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE 995 MB LOW IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN WESTERN SD AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ND AND INTO SWRN MANITOBA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY ARCS FROM BOTTINEAU TO FARGO AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...REACHING PEMBINA BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THIS BAND...PRIMARILY NEAR THE SD BORDER...LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. A STORM OR TWO COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS IN THE
FAR SOUTH. ITS LOOKING LIKE MOST OF THE FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE IN CENTRAL ND TONIGHT...SO HAVE TRIMMED POPS DOWNWARD
SOMEWHAT.
TOMORROW...CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR
NORTH AND EAST. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POTENT WAVE ENTERS AREA
BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED THUNDER TO THE CWFA BY
THURSDAY PM. GFS DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH ITS 12Z SOLN OF THIS
SYSTEM AND USED A BLEND OF THE GEM/EC/NAM WITH ITS 500MB
PLACEMENT...TIMING AND TRACK...ALL OF WHICH BRING THE UPPER LOW TO
THE SD/ND/MN BORDER AREA BY 12Z FRI. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM 850MB
TEMPS REACH INTO THE 5 TO 9C RANGE WITH AND FAVORABLE WARMING SW
SFC WINDS ALLOWING SFC TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS AND STRONG 925MB CAA. STRONG WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE NAM SHOWING 40KTS OR
BETTER TO MIX DURING THE DAYTIME. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO MINUS 4C OR
SO WITH 925MB TEMPS NEAR 0C SO WILL LOWER FRIDAY MAX TEMPS INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S. SHOWERS SLOWLY DEPART WEST TO EAST FRIDAY.
SATURDAY TO TUESDAY... NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE PERIOD WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED NW TO SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH
WILL ALLOW ANY WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN CHC/SLGHT CHC POPS SAT AND SUN WITH BLENDED
GUIDANCE GIVING LOW 50S FOR MAX TEMPS. THICKNESSES INCREASE AS THE
NW FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE WEST NW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME AS A RESULT AND SLGHT CHC POPS ARE
LIMITED TO THE EASTERN CWFA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF FAR ERN AREAS SUCH AS BAUDETTE-BEMIDJI-WADENA WHERE VFR CIGS
REMAIN. ISSUES THIS FCST IS AFFECT OF DRY SLOT IN CLEARING OUT THE
MVFR CIGS INTO FARGO AREA OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TVF/GFK AS
WELL. THEN MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO SPREAD BACK IN AS UPPER LOW/SFC LOW
MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG
OVERNIGHT IN THE 15 TO 30 KT RANGE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND THEN EVENTUALLY CLOSER TO WEST WED AFTN.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
927 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THEN ANOTHER TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COOLING OFF FASTER THAN FORECAST WITH THE RECENT RAIN IN LUCAS AND WOOD
COUNTIES. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS ACCORDINGLY. THE RAIN WILL COME
TO AN END OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN FREE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
STRAY SHOWER. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AMPLE MOISTURE UPSTREAM SHOULD LEND ITSELF TO A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
LATEST RAP AND NAM RUNS INDICATE CLEARING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...BUT THE CURRENT
SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO SUGGEST OTHERWISE WITH MID
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SO
THE SKY FORECAST LENDS ITSELF TO PERSISTENCE RATHER THAN MODEL
OUTPUT...AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS WELL. HOWEVER...THE
HIGHER POPS WILL BE IN THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THEN DECREASE EASTWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE PROBLEM IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD
EAST AND WILL THE THUNDERSTORMS BE WIDESPREAD OR JUST A CHANCE. WILL
SPREAD THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHAT QUICKLY EAST
ON FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A LITTLE QUICKER. AT THIS TIME
STILL KEPT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO A CHANCE. WE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
SHEAR AND THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH IF THE AIRMASS
BECAME UNSTABLE WE COULD HAVE SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THIS THREAT WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED.
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL END QUICKLY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE COULD BE A LITTLE LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE EVENING
ESPECIALLY WEST OF CLE AND AKRON.
AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THAT WILL MEAN SHOWERS LIKELY.
ON SATURDAY A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS AN UPPER TROF
MOVES THROUGH.
A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AS TROFS MOVE THROUGH.
WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH THE
UPPER TROF IN THE AREA. STARTING WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW BEGINS
TO PULL AWAY LEAVING THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION MORE ZONAL...THAT
IS ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND GFSENS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH
THIS TRANSITION AND BRINGS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND MAKING FOR ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY. WILL TAKE NOTE OF THIS...BUT CONTINUE
THE FORECAST IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE TROUGH SLOWLY PULLING
OUT. THAT WILL LEAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND FOR NOW KEEPING THURSDAY DRY. LOWS WILL
STICK IN THE 40S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AND BY
THURSDAY RETURN CLOSER TO NORMALS...WHICH THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE KTOL AREA THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS THEN THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH. EXPECT PRECIP TO TRY
TO WORK BACK INTO THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK.
FURTHER EAST WILL JUST SEE GRADUALLY LOWERING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE A 10 TO 12 HOUR WINDOW OF MAINLY SHOWERS
DURING THE PERIOD. WILL TRY TO TIME THE START EAST ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. CIGS SHOULD DIP TO MVFR A
COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE STEADIER PRECIP BEGINS. SOME IFR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ACROSS NW OH BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. AS FAR AS THUNDER...BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR MAINLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MENTION SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER NW OH
THIS EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A LLWS MENTION IN THE WEST.
FURTHER EAST EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF MECHANICAL MIXING IN THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW. SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT AT KCLE...KMFD AND KERI. WINDS AT KERI COULD GET CLOSE TO
35 KNOTS TOMORROW MORNING.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY NE OH/NW PA...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP
TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY START AS EARLY AS THE MORNING FOR
THE WESTERN BASIN WITH WINDS GETTING NEAR THE 20-25 KNOT MINIMUM.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT THAT WILL PASS DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WINDS AND CONDITIONS
ON THE LAKE WILL DETERIORATE AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR SEVERAL DAYS. A
GOOD PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL BRING WINDS UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND BY THEN A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS A CERTAINTY. THE LOW GETS HUNG UP ACROSS
CENTRAL ONTARIO/NORTHERN LAKES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE WSW GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY TIGHT
AND A PERIOD OF 20-30 KNOTS WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WINDS BECOME A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LOW WILL STILL LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
756 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THEN ANOTHER TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AMPLE MOISTURE UPSTREAM SHOULD LEND ITSELF TO A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
LATEST RAP AND NAM RUNS INDICATE CLEARING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...BUT THE CURRENT
SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO SUGGEST OTHERWISE WITH MID
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SO
THE SKY FORECAST LENDS ITSELF TO PERSISTENCE RATHER THAN MODEL
OUTPUT...AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS WELL. HOWEVER...THE
HIGHER POPS WILL BE IN THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THEN DECREASE EASTWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE PROBLEM IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD
EAST AND WILL THE THUNDERSTORMS BE WIDESPREAD OR JUST A CHANCE. WILL
SPREAD THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHAT QUICKLY EAST
ON FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A LITTLE QUICKER. AT THIS TIME
STILL KEPT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO A CHANCE. WE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
SHEAR AND THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH IF THE AIRMASS
BECAME UNSTABLE WE COULD HAVE SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THIS THREAT WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED.
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL END QUICKLY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE COULD BE A LITTLE LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE EVENING
ESPECIALLY WEST OF CLE AND AKRON.
AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THAT WILL MEAN SHOWERS LIKELY.
ON SATURDAY A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS AN UPPER TROF
MOVES THROUGH.
A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AS TROFS MOVE THROUGH.
WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH THE
UPPER TROF IN THE AREA. STARTING WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW BEGINS
TO PULL AWAY LEAVING THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION MORE ZONAL...THAT
IS ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND GFSENS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH
THIS TRANSITION AND BRINGS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND MAKING FOR ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY. WILL TAKE NOTE OF THIS...BUT CONTINUE
THE FORECAST IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE TROUGH SLOWLY PULLING
OUT. THAT WILL LEAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND FOR NOW KEEPING THURSDAY DRY. LOWS WILL
STICK IN THE 40S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AND BY
THURSDAY RETURN CLOSER TO NORMALS...WHICH THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE KTOL AREA THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS THEN THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH. EXPECT PRECIP TO TRY
TO WORK BACK INTO THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK.
FURTHER EAST WILL JUST SEE GRADUALLY LOWERING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE A 10 TO 12 HOUR WINDOW OF MAINLY SHOWERS
DURING THE PERIOD. WILL TRY TO TIME THE START EAST ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. CIGS SHOULD DIP TO MVFR A
COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE STEADIER PRECIP BEGINS. SOME IFR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ACROSS NW OH BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. AS FAR AS THUNDER...BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR MAINLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MENTION SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER NW OH
THIS EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A LLWS MENTION IN THE WEST.
FURTHER EAST EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF MECHANICAL MIXING IN THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW. SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT AT KCLE...KMFD AND KERI. WINDS AT KERI COULD GET CLOSE TO
35 KNOTS TOMORROW MORNING.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY NE OH/NW PA...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP
TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY START AS EARLY AS THE MORNING FOR
THE WESTERN BASIN WITH WINDS GETTING NEAR THE 20-25 KNOT MINIMUM.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT THAT WILL PASS DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WINDS AND CONDITIONS
ON THE LAKE WILL DETERIORATE AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR SEVERAL DAYS. A
GOOD PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL BRING WINDS UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND BY THEN A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS A CERTAINTY. THE LOW GETS HUNG UP ACROSS
CENTRAL ONTARIO/NORTHERN LAKES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE WSW GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY TIGHT
AND A PERIOD OF 20-30 KNOTS WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WINDS BECOME A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LOW WILL STILL LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
205 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY.
MUCH COOLER WEEKEND. REINFORCING FRONT MAY ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
NAM KEEPS TRYING TO GIVE SOME CONVECTION OFF THE ELEVATED CAPE
ALONG THE STALLING COLD FRONT FROM AN EKN-CRW-HTS LINE THROUGH
AROUND THE 06Z-09Z TIME FRAME. GAVE IN AND CONTINUED THE LOW END
POPS THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME WITH THE HRRR ALSO SELLING A SIMILAR
SOLUTION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC OBS SHOWING WEAK COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH-LIKE FEATURE GENERALLY
BISECTING THE STATE OF OHIO FROM NE TO SW...JUST EAST OF CLE-CMH-CVG
AT 18Z. AHEAD OF IT AND OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SE GREAT
LAKES IS A LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PA STRETCHING SSW-WARD
INTO MORGAN/PERRY COUNTIES IN OHIO. THESE WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY
EASTWARD MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF US HWY 50 THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LIKELY SHOW SOME SIGNS OF DISSIPATION AS THEY PROGRESS.
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH
EASTWARD ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA BY 12Z WED. PRECIP CHANCES THIS EVENING
ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC...WITH NEAR-TERM CONVECTIVE MODELS INSISTING
ON SOME WEAK REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES INTO OUR
AREA THIS EVENING. SHOULD THIS OCCUR IT WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES...WHILE THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS REMAIN
DRY. AT ANY RATE...ANY PRECIP SHOULD END BY THE 03Z-06Z TIME FRAME
OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES...AND ANYTHING WHICH DOES DEVELOP THIS
EVENING WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE FRONT/TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT BEGIN TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT...LAYING
UP SOMEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL WV LOWLANDS. BEHIND IT...LOW STRATUS
WILL TAKE HOLD...WHILE EAST AND SOUTH OF IT SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY...ALLOWING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FOG
FORMATION.
WEDNESDAY...EARLY MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
WITH AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY LATE MORNING FOR MOST AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST.
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH SOME RIDGE TOP CONVERGENCE AND LLVL MOISTURE
POOLED IN THAT AREA.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARDING TEMPS. OVERNIGHT MINS
GENERALLY MID/UPPER 50S LOWLANDS AND MAX TEMPS MID/UPPER 70S STILL
APPEAR ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET START TO THE PERIOD AS RIDGING RULES SFC AND ALOFT WED NT INTO
THU NT.
MEANWHILE...L/W TROUGH RESIDING OVER THE WRN CONUS OF LATE...SLIDES
E TO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY THU...AND TO THE ERN CONUS FRI-FRI NT.
MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON BEHAVIOR OF INDIVIDUAL S/W TROUGHS
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER L/W AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. THE FIRST S/W IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT GETS
DRAWN NEWD ON FRONT SIDE OF L/W...CROSSING FRI. THIS WILL HAVE THE
BEST AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION EVENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. DEPICTED A MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED PATTERN IN THE POP GRIDS.
DYNAMICS WITH THIS FEATURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN BUOYANCY WHICH...WITH STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW...GIVE RISE TO
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...THE ONLY MITIGATING FACTOR BEING THE TIMING
WILL BE A BIT EARLY IN RELATIONSHIP TO DIURNAL HEATING. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO AT LEAST SEE A SEE TEXT AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.
WILL DEFER TO THE MID SHIFT WITH THE NEW SWODY3 FOR AN HWO
INTRODUCTION.
THE FRONT WHIPS THROUGH FRI NT...DRIVEN BY THE MAIN S/W TROUGH AXIS
WHICH DIGS IN AND CLOSES OFF INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOMEWHERE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THERE REMAINS MODEL DISCREPANCY AS TO HOW FAR S
THE LOW CLOSES OFF...BUT CLEARING...DRYING AND FALLING TEMPERATURES
FOLLOW EITHER WAY.
BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...A LITTLE LOWER
THAN PREVIOUS. PREVIOUS FCST LOOKED GOOD FOR HIGHS THU. BLENDED IN
A COMBINATION OF NAM AND GFS MODEL TEMPERATURES FOR FRI...HIGHS
ENDED UP CLOSE TO PREVIOUS AS A RESULT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
L/W TROUGH DOMINATES THE ERN CONUS THIS PERIOD WITH INITIAL SHOT OF
COLD AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE FRI. THE GFS TAKES MOST OF SAT TO GET THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS THROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF IS FASTER...BUT BRINGS
ANOTHER S/W TROUGH AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE L/W THROUGH ON SAT.
EITHER WAY...A FEW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE COLD ADVECTION UPSLOPE
FLOW BENEATH THE COLD AIR ALOFT.
THE AREA DOES REMAIN IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MUCH OF THE PERIOD AFTER
THAT AS THE SWD EXTENT OF THE L/W DOES RETREAT. THIS MAKES IT
DIFFICULT TO TIME THE COOLEST WEATHER OTHER THAN THE INITIAL SHOT
SAT...WHICH IS NOW CODED UP AS THE COOLEST PART OF THE FCST. THIS
INCLUDES POTENTIALLY FROSTY TEMPERATURES FOR THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS
AND IN SE OH COME SUN MORNING.
THE NEXT REINFORCING S/W TROUGH BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO ITS TIMING
ALONG WITH TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE REINFORCING COOL AIR BEHIND IT
SO COULD NOT REALLY DEPICT NEXT COOL DOWN EVEN ON DAY 7 NT.
BLENDED IN GFS...THE COLDER MODEL...FOR TEMPERATURES SAT AND HAVE
HIGHS SAT ON LOW EDGE OF GUIDANCE AND WELL BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 50S
LOWLANDS. BLENDED IN WPC AND THE LOW MEX FOR LOWS SAT NT...AGAIN ON
LOW END OF GUIDANCE. WILL NOT HWO FROST DAY 4 NT THOUGH PENDING HOW
FAVORABLE SAT NT TURNS OUT FOR RADIATIVE COOLING. BLENDED IN WPC
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LESS CERTAIN BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXPECTED STRATUS IS FORMING IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND SINKING SW ON
THE NE LOW LEVEL FLOW. YET...THAT FLOW BREAKS DOWN AFTER 09Z. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF 1 THSD FT BKN/OVC
FOR THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES...BUT CONFIDENCE LOWERS ON WHETHER IT
CAN PUSH INTO CKB TO CRW. VAD WINDS ON KRLX 05 TO 06Z WERE STILL NE
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT 925 MBS WHICH IS STRONGER THAN MOST MODELS. SO
WILL TRY TO FORM STRATUS AND NOT THICK FOG AT CKB TO CRW. WAS NOT
FORECASTING THE LOW STRATUS CEILING TO REACH EKN TO BKW
CORRIDOR.
STILL EXPECT THE THIN STRATUS TO BE STUBBORN TO ERODE/LIFT WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE MID OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES NEAR PKB. 18Z IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.
A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST
VIRGINIA CENTRAL MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.
HAVE MOSTLY SCATTERED CLOUDS BY 00Z THURSDAY. DIURNAL FOG MAY BE
FORMING FIRST...03Z TO 06Z THURSDAY...IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND
CRW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF STRATUS...AND THE 1000FT THRESHOLD
ARE IN QUESTION FOR THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME. TIMING THE LIFTING
AND BREAK UP OF THE THIN STRATUS MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 10/01/14
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M L L L L L L L L
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L H M M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H H M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L L L L L H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...50/26
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
858 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IS CURRENTLY IN GOOD SHAPE SO THERE WON`T BE ANY GREAT
CHANGE THERE OTHER THAN A QUICK TWEAK TO THE TIMING OF THE LINE
ARRIVING IN ANY GIVEN AREA IN MIDDLE TN. THIS GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE
ON OUR HOMEPAGE IF YOU`RE INTERESTED IN SEEING THE LATEST THOUGHTS
ON THAT.
RUC SOUNDING ANALYSIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE MS RIVER WILL HAVE
THE RIGHT ENVIRONMENT TO MAINTAIN ITSELF TO AT LEAST THE I-65
CORRIDOR AND MAYBE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST. THE ONLY THING THAT
COULD DERAIL THIS FROM HAPPENING ARE THE STORMS THAT ARE CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHERN MS. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THESE
STORMS WILL PUSH NEWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IF THIS
OCCURS...THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME POLLUTED ENOUGH TO GREATLY
WEAKEN THE LINE AS IT CROSSES OVER THE TN RIVER.
BARRING WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE LINE...AND THE
CONCERN FOR A TOR WATCH...THE MAIN THREAT STILL LOOKS LIKE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS VEER JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE WHICH IS HELPING TO FLATTEN
OUT THE HODOGRAPHS. THAT`S NOT TO SAY THE TOR THREAT WILL BE
ZERO...BUT ONCE SURFACE WINDS VEER TO >180 DEGREES...THE TOR
THREAT DIMINISHES GREATLY. FOR THIS REASON...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
CURRENT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WORDING FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
THE FRONT ITSELF IS STILL LAGGING WELL BEHIND THIS LINE AND ISN`T
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE MID-STATE UNTIL LATE MORNING TO MID-
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. THIS MEANS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. FORTUNATELY IT
LOOKS LIKE ENVIRONMENTAL RECOVERY WILL BE WEAK...SO WE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO SKATE THROUGH A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUB-SEVERE STORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MORE ON THAT WITH THE FULL FORECAST PACKAGE
LATER TONIGHT.
UNGER
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING TS INTO MIDDLE TN TONIGHT. HAVE
ATTEMPTED TO TIME OUT THE ARRIVAL OF TS INTO EACH MID-STATE
TERMINAL BASED ON LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE. LOWERED CIGS AND VIS
WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS AND LINGER UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SHOULDN`T BEGIN UNTIL AFTER 05Z TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN SOUTHERLY. FROPA
WON`T ACTUALLY BE UNTIL LATER IN THE TAF CYCLE WHERE THE WINDS
START TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND GUSTY...THEN NW IN THE NEXT TAF
CYCLE.
UNGER
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
27
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1220 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/
UPDATE...
SURFACE WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH AT EVERY OBSERVATION STATION
THROUGHOUT THE MIDSOUTH AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST. AS OF 10AM... TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY NEAR 80 DEGREES... A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT... I
RAISED HIGHS BY 1 DEGREE AREA WIDE. MORNING RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALREADY OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS
WITHIN AN AIRMASS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TOWARDS OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR AND NAM AGREE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TODAY SO POPS WERE RAISED IN NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY DEVELOPMENT.
JMP3
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/
UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.
CURRENTLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY ALLOWING SFC WINDS TO TURN AROUND
TO THE SOUTH. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER
THE MIDSOUTH. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. CAN/T RULE OUT
A FEW WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS TO OCCUR.
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
MIDSOUTH LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO BEGIN POPPING ACROSS THE
AREA BETWEEN 3-5 PM. MEANWHILE...A SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT WHICH WILL BE LOCATED BACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE LINE WILL BEGIN TO OUTRACE THE FRONT DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS ARE A TAD SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION
THE LINE THAN LAST NIGHTS RUN. EXPECT SQUALL LINE TO MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS BETWEEN 8-10PM. THE LINE WILL ROUGHLY BE
LOCATED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BETWEEN 12-2 AM. THE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE UNSTABLE WITH MODELS INDICATING CAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2200 J/KG. THE NAM IS SHOWING EVEN HIGHER CAPE
VALUES. HOWEVER...THE MODEL DOES NOT SHOW ANY WAA SHOWERS
OCCURRING IN THE MORNING LIKE THE GFS. THERE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS
AROUND THURSDAY MORNING AND IF WAA SHOWERS DO OCCUR LIKE THE GFS
IS INDICATING...THIS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AT LEAST INITIALLY.
BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT AIRMASS TO BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME STRONG STORMS BUT BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL COME FROM THE SQUALL LINE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS. SPC HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK EASTWARD TO
A LINE STRETCHING FROM PARIS...TO BOLIVAR...TO OXFORD. WITH LATEST
MODELS INDICATING A LITTLE SLOWER PROGRESSION WITH SQUALL
LINE...WILL KEEP SLIGHT RISK IN HWO AS IS...COVERING EASTERN ARKANSAS
AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. SQUALL LINE WILL BEGIN WEAKENING FROM
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING DURING THE LATE EVENING TO EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE MORNING ON FRIDAY. BY
AFTERNOON...SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONLY
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXPECT BEAUTIFUL AUTUMN WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDSOUTH. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY AS WELL. MODELS ARE
NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT AT THIS TIME.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AT JBR BETWEEN 02/13-17Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. LIGHT SE/S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 8-11 KTS BY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH VCSH POSSIBLE. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY NIGHT.
CJC
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1016 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
.UPDATE...
SURFACE WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH AT EVERY OBSERVATION STATION
THROUGHOUT THE MIDSOUTH AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST. AS OF 10AM... TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY NEAR 80 DEGREES... A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT... I
RAISED HIGHS BY 1 DEGREE AREA WIDE. MORNING RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALREADY OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS
WITHIN AN AIRMASS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TOWARDS OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR AND NAM AGREE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TODAY SO POPS WERE RAISED IN NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY DEVELOPMENT.
JMP3
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/
UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.
CURRENTLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY ALLOWING SFC WINDS TO TURN AROUND
TO THE SOUTH. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER
THE MIDSOUTH. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. CAN/T RULE OUT
A FEW WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS TO OCCUR.
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
MIDSOUTH LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO BEGIN POPPING ACROSS THE
AREA BETWEEN 3-5 PM. MEANWHILE...A SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT WHICH WILL BE LOCATED BACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE LINE WILL BEGIN TO OUTRACE THE FRONT DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS ARE A TAD SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION
THE LINE THAN LAST NIGHTS RUN. EXPECT SQUALL LINE TO MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS BETWEEN 8-10PM. THE LINE WILL ROUGHLY BE
LOCATED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BETWEEN 12-2 AM. THE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE UNSTABLE WITH MODELS INDICATING CAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2200 J/KG. THE NAM IS SHOWING EVEN HIGHER CAPE
VALUES. HOWEVER...THE MODEL DOES NOT SHOW ANY WAA SHOWERS
OCCURRING IN THE MORNING LIKE THE GFS. THERE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS
AROUND THURSDAY MORNING AND IF WAA SHOWERS DO OCCUR LIKE THE GFS
IS INDICATING...THIS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AT LEAST INITIALLY.
BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT AIRMASS TO BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME STRONG STORMS BUT BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL COME FROM THE SQUALL LINE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS. SPC HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK EASTWARD TO
A LINE STRETCHING FROM PARIS...TO BOLIVAR...TO OXFORD. WITH LATEST
MODELS INDICATING A LITTLE SLOWER PROGRESSION WITH SQUALL
LINE...WILL KEEP SLIGHT RISK IN HWO AS IS...COVERING EASTERN ARKANSAS
AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. SQUALL LINE WILL BEGIN WEAKENING FROM
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING DURING THE LATE EVENING TO EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE MORNING ON FRIDAY. BY
AFTERNOON...SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONLY
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXPECT BEAUTIFUL AUTUMN WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDSOUTH. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY AS WELL. MODELS ARE
NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT AT THIS TIME.
KRM
.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PATCHY FOR WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE TONIGHT. MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE.
WINDS 5-10KT LIGHT MAINLY FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. A FEW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH JBR AND POSSIBLY MEM TOWARD THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
957 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD INCREASE...AND LAST SEVERAL
HOURS OF THE HRRR SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER
OR NOT STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH. BETTER
SUPPORT SHOULD REMAIN NE OF THE FORECAST AREA SO CONFIDENCE IS ON
ANYTHING SEVERE REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE. WILL NOT INTRODUCE SEVERE
WORDING INTO THE GRIDS JUST YET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
AS CONVECTION APPROACHES THE AREA. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST WERE NEEDED TONIGHT. CURRENT POPS AND WX GRIDS
LOOK REASONABLE FOR THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. REFRESHED THE ZONES AND GRIDS TO INCLUDE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...VFR MAJORITY OF TAF PERIOD WITH WINDOW OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS FROM LATE THIS EVENING THRU ROUGHLY SUNRISE. VERY HUMID
AIRMASS OVER S TX THIS EVENING SHOULD AID IN A REDUCTION OF VSBYS
TO AROUND 6SM BY LATE EVENING AT KCRP/KALI AND PERHAPS KVCT. VSBYS
MAY FALL TO MVFR LEVELS BY 6Z AT SAID TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT IS
SET TO MOVE THRU THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH/WIND SHIFT OCCRNG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCT TSRA XPCTD TO
DVLP ALONG THE TROUGH AND IMPACT AREA TERMINALS FOR ONE TO THREE
HRS OVERNIGHT. HAVE TRIED TO INDICATE BEST TIMING OF PRECIP IN
TAFS WITH TEMPO GROUPS...BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED BASED OFF
FUTURE CONVECTIVE TRENDS. SFC WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VRB THIS
EVENING AND THEN NNERLY AFTER TROUGH MOVES THRU...AND INCREASING
TO AROUND 15KTS AFTER FROPA. LLVL CLOUDINESS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY
MID MRNG FRI /PERHAPS EARLIER/ WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL
TERMINALS DRNG THE DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 87 63 82 67 / 50 40 10 10 10
VICTORIA 69 86 56 81 61 / 70 20 10 10 10
LAREDO 76 87 63 85 68 / 50 40 10 10 10
ALICE 76 87 61 83 64 / 50 40 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 76 84 65 80 71 / 50 40 10 10 10
COTULLA 68 88 58 83 63 / 40 20 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 77 87 64 83 66 / 50 50 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 79 84 69 81 72 / 50 40 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TB/78...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
403 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA. UPPER LEVEL FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS RESULTING IN
LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT...SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED. THE TAIL
END OF THIS ACTIVITY STRETCHES INTO OUR FAR NORTH TEXAS...AND THE NW
ZONES MAY RECEIVE A BRIEF SHOWER EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE STRATUS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS IS SURGING NORTHWARD INTO THE
THE CWA. THIS STRATUS SHOULD REACH THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING
BEFORE IT BEGINS TO MIX OUT. A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF THE
CWA TODAY...WITH SOME MID 90S IN WESTERN ZONES. THE DRY LINE IN WEST
TEXAS WILL BE ILL-DEFINED TODAY...BUT STILL SOME ISOLATED HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION MAY FORM WEST OF THE CWA IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. IF
THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS IT COULD IMPACT FAR NORTHWEST ZONES THIS
EVENING. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND
TOWARD MORNING FOR THE NW ZONES AS STRONGER FORCING BEGINS TO ARRIVE
INTO THE REGION...WHICH MAY SPARK SOME ELEVATED STORMS. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND IN THE 70S COMPLEMENTS OF MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A ROBUST STRATUS INVASION BEFORE DAYBREAK.
THERE IS A BIT OF GOOD NEWS IN THE FORECAST REGARDING THE BADLY
NEEDED RAINFALL CHANCES WITH THE THURSDAY SYSTEM. ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY ABOUT
6 TO 9 HOURS...AND THEREFORE NOW SHOW THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING
FOR LIFT COINCIDING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. YESTERDAY THERE WAS
CONCERN THAT THE LIFT WOULD BE EXITING THE REGION BY THE TIME THE
FRONT ARRIVED. THIS MORE FAVORABLE SETUP WARRANTS INCREASING POPS A
LITTLE MORE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY EVENING.
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN AREAS.
ONE NOTE REGARDING THE POP FORECAST...THE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR LOOK LIKE THEY WILL OCCUR IN THE 4PM TO 9PM
TIME FRAME...AND THEREFORE IT IS BEING SPLIT INTO 2 VERIFICATION
PERIODS. QUITE SIMPLY THIS MEANS THAT IF WE WERE TO FORECAST A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THIS ENTIRE EVENT...POPS FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR
WOULD BE HIGHER THAN BOTH OF THE VALUES FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT INDICATE. THEY ARE ARTIFICIALLY LOWER BECAUSE THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON WHICH VERIFICATION WINDOW THE RAIN FALLS IN BECAUSE
IT SO CLOSE TO THE END OF ONE AND THE START OF THE NEXT.
THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW ZONES DRY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG IT BY 3 PM. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND UPPER FORCING WILL ALSO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING...AND
THEREFORE WILL WORK TO WEAKEN A MODEST CAP OVER THE REGION. TEMPS
WILL BE HOT AGAIN THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S OVER THE
REGION...AND WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70...THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE
CAPE OF 1500-2500J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE MODES...AND THEREFORE A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL EXIST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM MODES WILL
LIKELY BE MORE LINEAR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT A FEW
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ZONES WHERE THE CAP IS STRONGER AND WILL INHIBIT A SOLID LINE FROM
DEVELOPING. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. LOW LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TOO VEERED AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
TO SUPPORT A TORNADO POTENTIAL WORTH MENTIONING...BUT OF COURSE THIS
IS A NON-ZERO THREAT WHEN SURFACE BASED SUPERCELLS ARE ANTICIPATED.
AGAIN NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAIN AS ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED IN WESTERN ZONES AND SCATTERED ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES. THOSE
THAT DO SEE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PICK UP AN INCH OF RAINFALL.
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL INVADE THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER ON
FRIDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL SETTLE IN OVER NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 40...THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET INTO THE
40S AND 50S OVER THE AREA. SATURDAY LOOKS VERY NICE WITH LIGHT
WINDS...SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS AROUND 80. SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL. HIGHER MOISTURE
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE QUICKLY EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
HIGHER MOISTURE. SOME UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S FOR HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
BY TUESDAY...WITH LOWS AGAIN WARMING INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
THE GFS INDICATES LIGHT QPF OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT
MODEL SOUNDING SHOW THIS IS JUST A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE BENEATH
A STRONG INVERSION. RAINFALL LOOKS UNLIKELY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE
SOME DRIZZLE OR ADVECTION FOG MAY OCCUR. EITHER WAY THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY AS NORTH TEXAS WILL BE IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH THE UPPER ENERGY FOR LIFT REMAINING TO OUR NORTHEAST.
TR.92
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1138 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE RETURN OF STRATUS
OVERNIGHT...BUT BEING A BIT OF AN OUTLIER LEADS TO THE BELIEF THAT
IT MAY BE OVERDOING IT. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE LEANING MORE
TOWARDS THE RAP AND GFS SOLUTIONS WHICH INDICATE GOOD NORTHWARD
MOISTURE SURGE WITHIN THE 25KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...BUT
GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS PLACES THE DALLAS AREA
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK FIRST THING IN THE
MORNING...SO WE WILL MAINTAIN THE MVFR CIGS AT KDAL AND KDFW 13Z
UNTIL 16Z. STRATUS SHOULD ARRIVE A FEW HOURS EARLIER AT KACT.
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN VFR. STRATUS WILL LIKELY
RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CONVECTION STILL A
POSSIBILITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEYOND THIS TAF SET.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 93 76 93 63 83 / 5 10 40 20 0
WACO, TX 93 75 95 62 85 / 5 5 30 40 5
PARIS, TX 88 71 90 58 78 / 10 10 50 60 0
DENTON, TX 93 73 92 57 81 / 5 10 40 10 0
MCKINNEY, TX 92 73 92 59 82 / 5 10 50 30 0
DALLAS, TX 93 76 93 63 83 / 5 5 40 30 0
TERRELL, TX 93 75 93 62 83 / 5 5 40 50 0
CORSICANA, TX 93 75 93 64 83 / 10 5 30 60 5
TEMPLE, TX 92 74 94 63 85 / 5 5 20 40 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 94 73 92 56 83 / 5 10 30 5 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1202 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions at KSJT and KABI through the forecast
period. However, MVFR CIGS will develop across the KJCT, KBBD, and
KSOA terminals after 10Z. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms
have developed to the west of the forecast area, these are not
expected to affect any of the aforementioned terminals. Gusty
south winds will return to the San Angelo and Abilene areas
sometime after 14Z tomorrow morning. Winds will also become gusty
across the Brady, Junction, and Sonora areas, though not until
after 17Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Gusty south winds are coming to an end as well as any chance of
seeing precipitation. VFR conditions are expected to prevail
across the KABI and KSJT terminals through the forecast period,
though gusty south winds will likely return early tomorrow
morning. Farther south and east MVFR CIGS are expected to develop
during the early morning hours. Since confidence has increased in
the development of low clouds across KJCT, KBBD, and KSOA, MVFR
CIGS were added after 10Z. Low clouds will likely scatter sometime
after 17Z tomorrow.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
SHORT TERM...
/Tonight and Wednesday/
Isolated showers have been affecting the Big County this afternoon,
embedded within the mid-level moist axis streaming across the Lone
Star State from southwest to northeast. The RAP Mesoanalysis
indicates a narrow axis of MLCAPE values approaching 1500 J/kg
across the western counties this afternoon, but even the cu
development as been rather limited, suggesting a pretty strong cap.
We are seeing a bit more vertical development in the cu field over
the Trans-Pecos area, however, and any convection that develops may
drift into the southwest zones. Thus, the slight chance PoPs were
retained this evening, mainly west of a line from Ozona, to Robert
Lee, to Miller Creek Reservoir. Winds will be a few mph stronger
than what was observed last night and, combined with the increasing
low-level moisture, should support min temps in the mid to upper 60s.
On Wednesday, the thermal ridge axis will shift east, resulting in
850mb temps of 24-25C across the Big Country and Concho Valley by
peak heating. With low-level adiabatic lapse rates during the
afternoon hours, we should have little problem warming into the
lower 90s across much of the area. These warm temperatures may
strain the cap to its breaking point by late afternoon, so the
mention of showers and thunderstorms was retained after 20z (3 PM).
Coverage is expected to remain very limited, but any storms that
develop could be strong.
LONG TERM...
/Wednesday night through Monday/
Afternoon water vapor imagery shows a strengthening trough
progressing southeast across the Inter-mountain West, upper-level
moisture streaming northeast across west central Texas from Tropical
Depression Rachel, and a shortwave trough lifting northeast across
the Dakotas. A dryline observed in surface observations extends
south through the Texas Panhandle, with a few showers developing
ahead of this feature. Ahead of this dryline, southeasterly surface
winds continue to advect moisture into the region from the Gulf of
Mexico.
The trend in the model solutions the past few days has been to delay
the arrival of a cold front. This trend has continued today with the
GFS and ECMWF trending towards the NAM model. Convective
temperatures are expected to be reached tomorrow evening. With
sufficient moisture/good instability in place, shower and
thunderstorm development will be possible, mainly north and west of
a line from San Angelo to Baird. Forecast soundings show SBCAPEs in
excess of 2000 J/kg, around 20-25 Kts of 0-6km shear, and T/TD
spreads around 30 degrees F. With this type of environment, a few
strong thunderstorms will be possible.
With the arrival of the upper trough Thursday, a cold front will
cross the area during the day. For Thursday, moisture, instability,
and shear will increase ahead of the cold front, with forecast
soundings indicating convective temperatures being reached, and a
higher potential for strong thunderstorms/possibly a few severe/ if
frontal timing in the models are correct. Friday will feature cooler
temperatures, with highs near 80 degrees. Another disturbance will
cross the Central Plains this weekend sending a weak cold front
south. This front will stall across the area on Sunday, with
increasing surface moisture likely south of the front. However,
moisture return looks insufficient for shower development at this
time. Overall confidence is moderate in rain chances
Wednesday/Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 69 92 72 92 56 / 10 10 20 20 5
San Angelo 69 93 73 89 57 / 10 5 10 20 10
Junction 66 91 73 90 60 / 5 5 5 20 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation: Dunn
Short/Long Term: Johnson/60
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1138 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.AVIATION...
THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE RETURN OF STRATUS
OVERNIGHT...BUT BEING A BIT OF AN OUTLIER LEADS TO THE BELIEF THAT
IT MAY BE OVERDOING IT. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE LEANING MORE
TOWARDS THE RAP AND GFS SOLUTIONS WHICH INDICATE GOOD NORTHWARD
MOISTURE SURGE WITHIN THE 25KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...BUT
GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS PLACES THE DALLAS AREA
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK FIRST THING IN THE
MORNING...SO WE WILL MAINTAIN THE MVFR CIGS AT KDAL AND KDFW 13Z
UNTIL 16Z. STRATUS SHOULD ARRIVE A FEW HOURS EARLIER AT KACT.
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN VFR. STRATUS WILL LIKELY
RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CONVECTION STILL A
POSSIBILITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEYOND THIS TAF SET.
30
&&
.UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES BEFORE
SUNSET DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET.
OTHER THAN REMOVING THE MENTION OF EVENING SHOWERS...NO MAJOR
CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
79
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. THIS AFTERNOON WHICH ARE PART
OF A LARGER LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE FIRST IS QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR PROVIDING FORCING FOR
ASCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE PRIMARY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL REMOVED FROM NORTH TEXAS. THIS LEAD
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED 994MB SURFACE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS
HAS HELPED PULL SOME HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR INTO NORTH TEXAS WHICH
HAS RESULTED IN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IS JUST NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL QUICKLY DIVE SOUTHEAST AND DEEPEN
OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. MEANWHILE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TOMORROW. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL EJECT NORTHEAST
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY SENDING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON THE AMOUNT OF
FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.
THE NAM IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH AND THEREFORE HAS THE BEST COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THE OTHER
GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY CLUSTERED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND THIS FORECAST WILL FAVOR THAT TRACK FOR THE
UPPER LOW. THIS MEANS THAT THE BEST FORCING WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
AREA...HOWEVER THE FRONT IS STRONG AND THERE WILL BE AMPLE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT ALONG WITH SOME DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT
FROM THE UPPER TROUGH.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AROUND MIDDAY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR
WITH MOST ACTIVITY BEING NORTH OF I-20 INITIALLY. THE LINE SHOULD
EXPAND SOUTHWARD IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH BEST
OVERALL RAIN CHANCES HOLDING EAST OF I-35 THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT.
THE FRONT WILL BE FAST MOVING AND SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING AND COOLER...DRIER AIR
MOVING IN. THE CENTER OF A SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVER NORTH TEXAS
SATURDAY MORNING AND THAT SHOULD BE THE COOLEST MORNING WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S AREAWIDE. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING BACK INTO THE
UPPER 80S BY MONDAY.
DUNN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 73 92 75 88 62 / 5 5 10 40 20
WACO, TX 71 92 75 90 64 / 5 5 5 30 30
PARIS, TX 69 89 72 87 60 / 10 5 10 50 30
DENTON, TX 68 92 74 88 58 / 5 5 10 30 10
MCKINNEY, TX 70 91 74 88 59 / 5 5 10 40 20
DALLAS, TX 73 92 75 89 63 / 5 5 5 40 20
TERRELL, TX 73 92 74 89 61 / 5 5 5 50 30
CORSICANA, TX 72 91 73 90 63 / 10 5 5 40 40
TEMPLE, TX 69 92 73 90 63 / 5 5 5 20 30
MINERAL WELLS, TX 68 93 71 89 57 / 5 5 10 20 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
141 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
BACK DOOR FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS BY TONIGHT BEFORE
ERODING. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL AGAIN WEDGE SOUTH ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT ARRIVES LATER FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1225 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWED WESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS FROM
ROCKBRIDGE COUNTY TO NEAR NEAR BEDFORD TO REIDSVILLE AT NOON. THE
GOES R NSSL SIMULATED WRF SKY COVER HAS MUCH OF THE LOW CLOUD
SCATTERED OUT BY 2PM. STILL JUST BEGINNING TO SEE STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOP IN THE WEST WHERE THERE HAS BEEN MORE SUNSHINE SO FAR
TODAY. HAVE ADJUSTED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST BASED ON THESE
CLOUD TRENDS.
LOCAL WRF DATA...SREF AND LATEST HRRR HOLD CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FAR NORTHEAST AND EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF A HOT SPRINGS TO LYNCHBURG
TO HALIFAX LINE. DO NOT EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS UNTIL
19-20Z/3-4PM.
TONIGHT...THE FRONT DISSIPATES LEAVING BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE AND
SEMBLANCE OF ANOTHER WEDGE. NAM/CMC AGAIN FOCUSING MORE CLOUDS IN
THE ERN CWA OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE
WITH DZ BUT WILL KEEP SOME TOWARD MORNING IN THE EAST ALONG WITH
FOG.
LOWS TONIGHT WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE VALLEYS IN THE WEST WITH LOWER TO MID 50S
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE WEDGED SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE
RIDGE EARLY THURSDAY LIKELY RESULTING IN AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH
SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE AND FOG. HOWEVER GUIDANCE AGAIN LESS OPTIMISTIC
ABOUT DRIZZLE GIVEN VERY SHALLOW NATURE TO THE MOISTURE AND EARLY
MORNING TIMING OF BRINGING IN THE LOW DECK. THUS TRIMMED BACK
DRIZZLE/FOG COVERAGE TO MAINLY THE BLUE RIDGE IN VIRGINIA AND POINTS
EAST EARLY ON. INCREASING SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD ACT TO BUMP
THE SURFACE RIDGE FARTHER EAST DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING
MIXING TO SCOUR OUT MOST OF THE WEDGE AS WARMING ALOFT KICKS IN. THIS
SHOULD ALSO PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 75-80 RANGE WEST AND LOW/MID 80S EAST
EXCEPT COOLER NE PENDING CLOUDS.
RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE STRONG UPSTREAM 5H TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED PRE-FRONTAL -SHRA WORK INTO THE FAR SW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW LEVEL WEDGE TO REDEVELOP OUT EAST WHERE SOME
SPOTTY DRIZZLE EVEN POSSIBLE LATE. OTRW ANY LIFT PER RIDGING LOOKS TOO
WEAK TO PRODUCE MUCH SO RUNNING BASICALLY DRY WITH LOWS 50S TO LOWER
60S.
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY BUT LOOKS TO SLOW
UPON ENCOUNTERING THE EASTERN RIDGE WHILE THE BEST DYNAMICS PASS WELL
OFF TO THE NORTH. LATEST ECMWF REMAINS THE SLOWEST GIVEN A BIT MORE
NEGATIVE TILT AS MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS BRING THE BOUNDARY INTO THE WEST
LATE FRIDAY BUT DONT CLEAR THE PIEDMONT UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
SUGGESTS A NEED TO SLOW ONSET OF HIGHER POPS DOWN A FEW HOURS WITH THE
HIGHER LIKELY/CAT POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN
SLOWLY WORKING/DEVELOPING EAST UPON GETTING BOOTED ALONG BY THE
APPROACH OF THE MIDWEST 5H COLD POOL/SPEED MAX. HOWEVER APPEARS SHOWERS
MAY LINGER OUT EAST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH POPS FINALLY TAPERING
OFF IN THE PIEDMONT TOWARD DAYBREAK WHILE REDEVELOPING WESTERN RIDGES
PER INCREASING POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE. OVERALL LOW TOPPED SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS MARGINAL ALTHOUGH A SLOWER SOLUTION COULD ACT TO ENHANCE WESTERN
INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON PER BETTER NAM CAPE VALUES. HOWEVER WIND
FIELDS ALOFT AND LAPSES APPEAR WEAKER OVER THE WEST AND STRONGER EAST
WHERE LIKELY OFFSET VIA SOMEWHAT OF A RESIDUAL WEDGE UNTIL LATE.
THEREFORE KEPT SOME THUNDER MENTION MOST SPOTS AND MORE IN LINE WITH
THE STRONGER GFS SOLUTION. SLOWER TIMING SHOULD MEAN A BOUNCE IN HIGH
TEMPS ESPCLY EAST FRIDAY WHERE AROUND 80 POSSIBLE WITH MOST OTHER SPOTS
IN THE 70S GIVEN A FEW MORE HOURS OF INSOLATION FOR NOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH
DRIER COOLER AIR MOVING IN ON WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PLACE A
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. BREEZY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTH INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST
ALONG THE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND...SHUTTING DOWN ANY MOISTURE
RETURNING INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE MOVING A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS THIS
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA...IT WILL BE HARD-PRESSED TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE RECOVERY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5F-10F COOLER THAN NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE TOWARDS NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED STRATUS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
CONTINUING TO LIFT AND BECOME SCATTERED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KLYH AT THE BEGINNING OF THE 18Z TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK SHORT WAVE CROSSING THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE PROBABILITY WAS TOO LOW AT
THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE JUST NORTH AND EAST OF KLYH.
TONIGHT...WEDGE EXPECTED TO SET UP AND LOOKING AT MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBYS REFORMING AT LYH/DAN OVERNIGHT. NSSL WRF AND NAM BUFKIT
FORECAST BOTH SHOWED REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS AROUND
07Z/1AM TONIGHT. FOG AGAIN AT BCB/LWB IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE LATE.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL 13Z/9AM.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
EXPECT VFR THU AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING
AND THE PIEDMONT IN THE AFTERNOON. SUB VFR EXPECTED IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED TSRA.
SHOWERS EXITING THE MTNS BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING AND THE PIEDMONT
TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY. TIMING OF CLEARING IS STILL TRICKY.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE CLEARING OUT IN THE PIEDMONT TO
ROANOKE/BLACKSBURG BUT UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS AT BLF/LWB MAY OCCUR INTO
SAT AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZY NW WINDS.
WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN VFR SUNDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1233 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
BACK DOOR FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS BY TONIGHT BEFORE
ERODING. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL AGAIN WEDGE SOUTH ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT ARRIVES LATER FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1225 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWED WESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS FROM
ROCKBRIDGE COUNTY TO NEAR NEAR BEDFORD TO REIDSVILLE AT NOON. THE
GOES R NSSL SIMULATED WRF SKY COVER HAS MUCH OF THE LOW CLOUD
SCATTERED OUT BY 2PM. STILL JUST BEGINNING TO SEE STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOP IN THE WEST WHERE THERE HAS BEEN MORE SUNSHINE SO FAR
TODAY. HAVE ADJUSTED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST BASED ON THESE
CLOUD TRENDS.
LOCAL WRF DATA...SREF AND LATEST HRRR HOLD CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FAR NORTHEAST AND EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF A HOT SPRINGS TO LYNCHBURG
TO HALIFAX LINE. DO NOT EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS UNTIL
19-20Z/3-4PM.
TONIGHT...THE FRONT DISSIPATES LEAVING BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE AND
SEMBLANCE OF ANOTHER WEDGE. NAM/CMC AGAIN FOCUSING MORE CLOUDS IN
THE ERN CWA OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE
WITH DZ BUT WILL KEEP SOME TOWARD MORNING IN THE EAST ALONG WITH
FOG.
LOWS TONIGHT WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE VALLEYS IN THE WEST WITH LOWER TO MID 50S
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE WEDGED SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE
RIDGE EARLY THURSDAY LIKELY RESULTING IN AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH
SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE AND FOG. HOWEVER GUIDANCE AGAIN LESS OPTIMISTIC
ABOUT DRIZZLE GIVEN VERY SHALLOW NATURE TO THE MOISTURE AND EARLY
MORNING TIMING OF BRINGING IN THE LOW DECK. THUS TRIMMED BACK
DRIZZLE/FOG COVERAGE TO MAINLY THE BLUE RIDGE IN VIRGINIA AND POINTS
EAST EARLY ON. INCREASING SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD ACT TO BUMP
THE SURFACE RIDGE FARTHER EAST DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING
MIXING TO SCOUR OUT MOST OF THE WEDGE AS WARMING ALOFT KICKS IN. THIS
SHOULD ALSO PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 75-80 RANGE WEST AND LOW/MID 80S EAST
EXCEPT COOLER NE PENDING CLOUDS.
RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE STRONG UPSTREAM 5H TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED PRE-FRONTAL -SHRA WORK INTO THE FAR SW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW LEVEL WEDGE TO REDEVELOP OUT EAST WHERE SOME
SPOTTY DRIZZLE EVEN POSSIBLE LATE. OTRW ANY LIFT PER RIDGING LOOKS TOO
WEAK TO PRODUCE MUCH SO RUNNING BASICALLY DRY WITH LOWS 50S TO LOWER
60S.
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY BUT LOOKS TO SLOW
UPON ENCOUNTERING THE EASTERN RIDGE WHILE THE BEST DYNAMICS PASS WELL
OFF TO THE NORTH. LATEST ECMWF REMAINS THE SLOWEST GIVEN A BIT MORE
NEGATIVE TILT AS MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS BRING THE BOUNDARY INTO THE WEST
LATE FRIDAY BUT DONT CLEAR THE PIEDMONT UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
SUGGESTS A NEED TO SLOW ONSET OF HIGHER POPS DOWN A FEW HOURS WITH THE
HIGHER LIKELY/CAT POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN
SLOWLY WORKING/DEVELOPING EAST UPON GETTING BOOTED ALONG BY THE
APPROACH OF THE MIDWEST 5H COLD POOL/SPEED MAX. HOWEVER APPEARS SHOWERS
MAY LINGER OUT EAST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH POPS FINALLY TAPERING
OFF IN THE PIEDMONT TOWARD DAYBREAK WHILE REDEVELOPING WESTERN RIDGES
PER INCREASING POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE. OVERALL LOW TOPPED SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS MARGINAL ALTHOUGH A SLOWER SOLUTION COULD ACT TO ENHANCE WESTERN
INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON PER BETTER NAM CAPE VALUES. HOWEVER WIND
FIELDS ALOFT AND LAPSES APPEAR WEAKER OVER THE WEST AND STRONGER EAST
WHERE LIKELY OFFSET VIA SOMEWHAT OF A RESIDUAL WEDGE UNTIL LATE.
THEREFORE KEPT SOME THUNDER MENTION MOST SPOTS AND MORE IN LINE WITH
THE STRONGER GFS SOLUTION. SLOWER TIMING SHOULD MEAN A BOUNCE IN HIGH
TEMPS ESPCLY EAST FRIDAY WHERE AROUND 80 POSSIBLE WITH MOST OTHER SPOTS
IN THE 70S GIVEN A FEW MORE HOURS OF INSOLATION FOR NOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH
DRIER COOLER AIR MOVING IN ON WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PLACE A
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. BREEZY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTH INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST
ALONG THE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND...SHUTTING DOWN ANY MOISTURE
RETURNING INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE MOVING A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS THIS
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA...IT WILL BE HARD-PRESSED TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE RECOVERY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5F-10F COOLER THAN NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE TOWARDS NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 738 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
LOW STRATUS/FOG WILL LIFT TOWARD 13-15Z AT ALL SITES AND EXPECT TO
SEE VFR AT ALL SITES BY MIDDAY/LATER AT LYH AND DAN AROUND 18-19Z.
NOT REALLY SEEING A GOOD THREAT FOR SHOWERS AT THE TAF
SITES...ALTHOUGH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO HAVE A SHOWER OR TWO
MOVE NEAR LYH THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...WEDGE EXPECTED TO SET UP AND LOOKING AT MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBYS AT LYH/DAN OVERNIGHT WITH FOG AGAIN AT BCB/LWB IN THE
IFR/LIFR RANGE LATE.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ANY FOG...LOW CLOUDS WILL START TO ERODE IN THE WEST BY 13-15Z THU
BUT COULD SEE SUB VFR CIGS OUT EAST INTO MIDDAY AT LYH...BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT.
EXPECT VFR THU AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING
AND THE PIEDMONT IN THE AFTERNOON. SUB VFR EXPECTED IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED TSRA. HAVE SHOWERS EXITING THE MTNS BY LATE
FRIDAY EVENING AND THE PIEDMONT TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY. TIMING IS
STILL TRICKY. SATURDAY SHOULD BE CLEARING OUT IN THE PIEDMONT TO
ROANOKE/BLACKSBURG BUT UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS AT BLF/LWB MAY OCCUR INTO
SAT AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZY NW WINDS.
VFR SUNDAY WITH SW WINDS TAKING SHAPE BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1042 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
RAIN WAS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES THE ISSUE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WAS MOVING TOWARD
WISCONSIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WERE MOVING INTO WISCONSIN FROM
IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND A COLD
FRONT WERE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...BRINGING SHOWERS INTO THE
STATE FROM MINNESOTA. THERE WERE ALSO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND SOME
THUNDER...AHEAD OF AND BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. GUIDANCE WAS
SHOWING QPF INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MESOSCALE HRRR FROM 16Z
HAD THE RAIN THAT WAS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH MAINLY IMPACTING
AREAS FROM THE FOX VALLEY EAST TO THE LAKE AS THE RAIN TO THE WEST
MOVES INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING.
LIGHTNING DETECTION HAD SOME CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES ALONG THE
EASTERN PART OF THE MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER...WHERE LOCAL
MESOANALYSIS GRAPHICS SHOWED RATHER LOW MUCAPE WITH AROUND ZERO
CIN. OTHER LOCATIONS IN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH HIGHER
MUCAPE AND LITTLE OR NO CIN...DID NOT HAVE ANY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING DETECTED WITH IT.
HAVE GONE WITH INCREASING POPS FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TONIGHT AS THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THE
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE DECREASING POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD. DID MENTION
A CHANCE FOR THUNDER LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT THINKING IT
SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS.
THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALONG WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING UP MUCH
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY IF THEY MANAGE TO WARM AT ALL. SEEMS A
LITTLE EARLY IN THE SEASON FOR FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
BUT IT IS PAST THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX AND THE COLD ADVECTION IS
STRONG. HAVE NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES GOING THROUGH MID
MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THE REST OF THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
PCPN TRENDS AND TYPE FOR THE WEEKEND...AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.
A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL WI AND THE SOUTHERN
FOX VALLEY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS MOVG INTO NC/C WI
LATE FRIDAY EVG...AND PROGRESSING TO JUST NW OF THE FOX VALLEY BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW AND FRONT WILL EXIT SATURDAY
MORNING...CAUSING SHOWERS TO DECREASE OVER EASTERN WI. PCPN TYPE
WILL PROBABLY BE MIXED RAIN/SNOW OVER ABOUT THE SW THIRD OF THE
CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...WHERE MODELS SHOW THE COLDEST POCKET OF AIR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS
ANTICIPATED. A WEAK THERMAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP PCPN ALL
RAIN OVER THE FAR NORTH.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NC WI SAT AFT/NGT...
WHERE SCT LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THE AIR MASS WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT NGT.
NW FLOW AND ASSOCIATED COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
NIGHT...AS A SHARP UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH. WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...POPS WILL ONLY BE IN
THE CHC CATEGORY.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MIDWEEK...WITH A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
CIGS AND VSBYS IFR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
WHERE RAIN HAS BEEN MORE OR LESS STEADY...BUT BOUNCING UP AND
DOWN AT THE FOX VALLEY AIRPORTS WHERE PRECIP IS MORE SCATTERED. AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND FRONT MAKE THEIR WAY TO THE EAST...CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE A BIT AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE BY
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......JKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
708 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
RAIN WAS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES THE ISSUE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WAS MOVING TOWARD
WISCONSIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WERE MOVING INTO WISCONSIN FROM
IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND A COLD
FRONT WERE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...BRINGING SHOWERS INTO THE
STATE FROM MINNESOTA. THERE WERE ALSO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND SOME
THUNDER...AHEAD OF AND BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. GUIDANCE WAS
SHOWING QPF INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MESOSCALE HRRR FROM 16Z
HAD THE RAIN THAT WAS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH MAINLY IMPACTING
AREAS FROM THE FOX VALLEY EAST TO THE LAKE AS THE RAIN TO THE WEST
MOVES INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING.
LIGHTNING DETECTION HAD SOME CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES ALONG THE
EASTERN PART OF THE MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER...WHERE LOCAL
MESOANALYSIS GRAPHICS SHOWED RATHER LOW MUCAPE WITH AROUND ZERO
CIN. OTHER LOCATIONS IN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH HIGHER
MUCAPE AND LITTLE OR NO CIN...DID NOT HAVE ANY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING DETECTED WITH IT.
HAVE GONE WITH INCREASING POPS FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TONIGHT AS THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THE
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE DECREASING POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD. DID MENTION
A CHANCE FOR THUNDER LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT THINKING IT
SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS.
THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALONG WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING UP MUCH
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY IF THEY MANAGE TO WARM AT ALL. SEEMS A
LITTLE EARLY IN THE SEASON FOR FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
BUT IT IS PAST THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX AND THE COLD ADVECTION IS
STRONG. HAVE NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES GOING THROUGH MID
MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THE REST OF THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
PCPN TRENDS AND TYPE FOR THE WEEKEND...AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.
A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL WI AND THE SOUTHERN
FOX VALLEY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS MOVG INTO NC/C WI
LATE FRIDAY EVG...AND PROGRESSING TO JUST NW OF THE FOX VALLEY BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW AND FRONT WILL EXIT SATURDAY
MORNING...CAUSING SHOWERS TO DECREASE OVER EASTERN WI. PCPN TYPE
WILL PROBABLY BE MIXED RAIN/SNOW OVER ABOUT THE SW THIRD OF THE
CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...WHERE MODELS SHOW THE COLDEST POCKET OF AIR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS
ANTICIPATED. A WEAK THERMAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP PCPN ALL
RAIN OVER THE FAR NORTH.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NC WI SAT AFT/NGT...
WHERE SCT LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THE AIR MASS WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT NGT.
NW FLOW AND ASSOCIATED COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
NIGHT...AS A SHARP UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH. WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...POPS WILL ONLY BE IN
THE CHC CATEGORY.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MIDWEEK...WITH A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD BECOME MAINLY IFR IN RAIN DURING THE
EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVE...BUT
CHANCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD THEM TO THE TAFS. AS THE SURFACE
LOW AND FRONT MAKE THEIR WAY TO THE EAST...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE A
BIT AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE BY FRIDAY
MORNING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......JKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
638 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING ALONG BOTH THE WEST AND EAST COASTS OF NORTH AMERICA
AND LONG WAVE TROUGHING DEVELOPING IN-BETWEEN. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
PORTION OF THIS LONG WAVE TROUGH FEATURES A POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE THE NORTHERN STREAM CONSISTED OF A
TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WAS PRESENT ALONG THE MN/SD BORDER. DPVA AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAS SUPPORTED A BAND OF SHOWERS FROM NW IA
INTO CENTRAL AND NE MN. AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE...A
STREAM OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS HELPED SPREAD 1.5-2 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER THROUGH MO...IL AND NOW APPROACHING SOUTHERN WI.
THIS MOISTURE...THE TRANSPORT...DPVA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE AND 1000-2000 J/KG MUCAPE ACCOMPANYING THE HIGHER MOISTURE
HAS SUPPORTED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...SOME HAVE BEGUN TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST AREA
SITS IN A MASS OF LOW STRATUS...AIDED BY BEING IN A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE. TO THE WEST...THOUGH...A
WEDGE OF CLEAR SKIES EXISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...AHEAD OF A
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE TROUGH OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA
REMAINS PROGGED TO DIG THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. AND MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. BY 00Z SAT...MOST MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LOW
SITUATED RIGHT ON TOP OF LSE. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE
MOIST FLOW REGIME CURRENTLY SPREADING NORTH TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...IT SHOULD
BRING AN AIRMASS IN MORE SIMILAR TO LATE OCTOBER/EARLY NOVEMBER.
FOR TONIGHT...MUCH OF THE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS PROGGED TO
STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AND INSTABILITY ACCOMPANYING IT AWAY.
HOWEVER...WE STILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH THE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE
MN/SD BORDER HEADING EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. DPVA FROM THE SHORTWAVE
INTERACTING WITH 1-1.5 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AHEAD OF IT...ALONG
WITH SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD HELP BRING SHOWERS TO MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE RAIN IN
THE LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INTENSITY...GIVEN THE UNSTABLE AIR
STAYING AWAY FROM THE AREA. CANT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL GIVEN PRESENCE OF WEAK INSTABILITY PROGGED. THERE HAS BEEN A
TREND FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO GET OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
QUICKER IN 02.06Z/02.12Z GUIDANCE...SO HAVE ADJUSTED CHANCES
TOWARDS A DRIER OVERNIGHT. SKIES COULD CLEAR OUT FOR A TIME
OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS THE CURRENT WEDGE OF CLEARING IN THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS MOVES IN.
ON FRIDAY...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
IN...SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOSTLY A SUBSIDENT REGIME IN PLACE. THIS WILL
HELP KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY. HOWEVER...AS WE APPROACH
00Z SAT...ANOTHER BAND OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW THAT FORMS COULD BEGIN TO
APPROACH FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INCLUDED
20 PERCENT CHANCES JUST IN CASE. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ARE GOING TO
BE THE BIG DEAL FOR FRIDAY...THOUGH. A SUSTAINED 30-40 KT 925MB
NORTHWEST WIND WILL HELP DRIVE 925MB TEMPS DOWN FROM 8-12C AT 09Z
FRI TO 3-6C BY 18Z FRI...AND PERHAPS AS LOW AS 2C BY 00Z SAT.
THUS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD EITHER HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH
THE DAY. MANY LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY WITH VALLEY AREAS STANDING THE BEST CHANCE TO GET ABOVE
50.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
A POTENT AND FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING WITH IT SOME OF THE CHILLIEST AIR OF THE
THE FALL SO FAR. PRECIPITATION SHOULD PUSH INTO NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE EVENING THEN SWINGING ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO START OUT AS LIGHT
RAIN BUT WILL THEN SWITCH OVER TO A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. IN FACT..THE SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
ACCUMULATE A SLUSHY 1/2 INCH OR SO ON ELEVATED SURFACES AWAY FROM
VALLEY LOCATIONS. IF THIS SNOWFALL WOULD OCCUR IT WOULD BE THE 4TH
EARLIEST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR ROCHESTER...AND IF SNOW IS
MEASURED AT LA CROSSE IT WOULD BE THE 3RD EARLIEST. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. WE WILL SEE THE WINDS SWITCH TO
NORTHWEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE. THE COMBINATION OF THE
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH... AND
FALLING SNOW COULD CAUSE SOME BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SO WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL. IT WILL BE CHILLY
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY WILL BE A RATHER RAW DAY OVER THE
REGION...AT LEAST COMPARED TO WHERE WE WERE LAST WEEKEND. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES
WON/T MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THOSE
WITH COLD SENSITIVE VEGETATION SHOULD TAKE THE PROPER PRECAUTIONS
TO PROTECT IT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. IN
FACT...SOME LOCATIONS OVER CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL
LIKELY SEE A FREEZE OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES OVER THESE
AREAS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S...PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT.
COOL NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVER
CENTRAL ONTARIO WITH A DEEP TROUGH PERSISTING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. SOME RELIEF FROM THE COOL
WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND ZONAL FLOW SETS UP. HIGHS SHOULD
REBOUND INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MN INTO WESTERN WI AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
TO NEAR KGRB BY 02.06Z. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY IN
RAIN SHOWERS WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WIND ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS AFTER
02.06Z. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A STRONG SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL RESULT
IN SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WIND FROM 15 TO 25 KTS AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
35 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KRST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
604 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
PRECIPITATION TIMING IS THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST.
RADAR TIME LAPSE INDICATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THESE SHOWERS WERE
DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY CONTINUED INTO NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HRRR MODEL APPEARED TO DO A BETTER JOB OF
DEPICTING THIS THAN THE NAM/GFS/EC/SREF. STILL...HAVE LEFT SHOWERS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DUE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
SURFACE FLOW BECOMES QUITE LIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK...DUE TO A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. HAVE AREAS OF FOG AROUND DAYBREAK DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE...LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...AND 12Z MOS
GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW VISIBILITIES IN FOG.
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY SHOULD
BE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE FRONT
TOWARD WISCONSIN. HAVE RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES INCREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW APPROACHES.
THE WET CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...AND
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WARMER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
PCPN TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SFC LOW LIFTING NNE ALONG
A STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SPREADING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THURSDAY
EVENING. A FEW TSTMS SHOULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OVER ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. A DECREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT...AND THE REST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
A DEEP UPPER TROF/UPPER LOW APPROACHES. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...FRIDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER
THAN ON THURSDAY.
THE UPPER TROF WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT...
SO SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BECOME LAKE-
ENHANCED OVER NC WI...WHERE COLD NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS THERE. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION
OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR NC WI LATE...AS H8 TEMPS DROP
TO -2 TO -4 C. A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN WI...THEN TAPER OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WIND TRAJECTORIES BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO..WITH SEVERAL S/W TROFS
ROTATING THROUGH WI. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND LLVL WINDS WILL
BE TOO WESTERLY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE-EFFECT. WILL HAVE LOW
POPS (15-30 PERCENT) OVER MOST OF THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...
ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES. IF PCPN OCCURS OVER NORTHERN WI...
A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/MORNING PERIODS.
EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO MIDWEEK...WITH A BIT OF
A WARMUP POSSIBLE. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THOUGH...
AS MODELS SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF H8 TEMPS OVER THE WSTRN GREAT
LAKES. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE H8 TEMPS OF +16 TO +20 OFF THE
00Z ECMWF...AS THEY SEEM ANOMALOUS COMPARED TO THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS...AND UNLIKELY WITH A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR IN
MOST PLACES LATE TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD RISE FROM IFR EARLY TO MVFR IN THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING DURING THE EVENING. VERY LOW CLOUDS AND
DENSE FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......RDM
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
PRECIPITATION TIMING IS THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST.
RADAR TIME LAPSE INDICATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THESE SHOWERS WERE
DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY CONTINUED INTO NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HRRR MODEL APPEARED TO DO A BETTER JOB OF
DEPICTING THIS THAN THE NAM/GFS/EC/SREF. STILL...HAVE LEFT SHOWERS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DUE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
SURFACE FLOW BECOMES QUITE LIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK...DUE TO A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. HAVE AREAS OF FOG AROUND DAYBREAK DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE...LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...AND 12Z MOS
GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW VISIBILITIES IN FOG.
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY SHOULD
BE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE FRONT
TOWARD WISCONSIN. HAVE RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES INCREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW APPROACHES.
THE WET CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...AND
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WARMER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
PCPN TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SFC LOW LIFTING NNE ALONG
A STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SPREADING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THURSDAY
EVENING. A FEW TSTMS SHOULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OVER ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. A DECREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT...AND THE REST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
A DEEP UPPER TROF/UPPER LOW APPROACHES. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...FRIDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER
THAN ON THURSDAY.
THE UPPER TROF WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT...
SO SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BECOME LAKE-
ENHANCED OVER NC WI...WHERE COLD NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS THERE. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION
OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR NC WI LATE...AS H8 TEMPS DROP
TO -2 TO -4 C. A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN WI...THEN TAPER OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WIND TRAJECTORIES BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO..WITH SEVERAL S/W TROFS
ROTATING THROUGH WI. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND LLVL WINDS WILL
BE TOO WESTERLY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE-EFFECT. WILL HAVE LOW
POPS (15-30 PERCENT) OVER MOST OF THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...
ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES. IF PCPN OCCURS OVER NORTHERN WI...
A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/MORNING PERIODS.
EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO MIDWEEK...WITH A BIT OF
A WARMUP POSSIBLE. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THOUGH...
AS MODELS SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF H8 TEMPS OVER THE WSTRN GREAT
LAKES. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE H8 TEMPS OF +16 TO +20 OFF THE
00Z ECMWF...AS THEY SEEM ANOMALOUS COMPARED TO THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS...AND UNLIKELY WITH A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
CIGS WERE MAINLY MVFR ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME CLEARING BETWEEN LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE STATE AND THE CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. CIGS
MAY IMPROVE TO VFR AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PREVAILING SHOULD
BE MOSTLY MVFR. SHOWERS THAT MOVED INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLIER
IN THE DAY WERE MAKING SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS SO HAVE KEPT CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TAFS DRY UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND
LEFT THE EAST DRY UNTIL THIS EVENING. HRRR SUGGESTS A RELATIVELY
SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN WHILE THE NAM/GFS/SREF/EC ALL HANG ON TO
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR QUITE A BIT LONGER. RIGHT NOW THE
HRRR IS LOOKING BETTER BUT HAVE DECIDED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION AND KEEP THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AROUND FOR LONGER. 12Z
MOS GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND GFS SHOWED LOW VSBYS IN FOG AROUND
12Z THURSDAY SO HAVE TEMPO GROUP WITH 1/2SM FG AT THE TAF SITES.
BASED ON WHAT I SAW FROM THIS MORNINGS OBSERVATIONS THERE DID NOT
APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...SO DID NOT USE IT AS THE
PREVAILING CONDITION. HAVE LEFT SHOWERS WITHOUT THUNDER TONIGHT
BUT WENT WITH A PROB30 FOR THUNDER ON THURSDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
250 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING DRAGGING A
STATIONARY FRONT INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA/FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME BAGGY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
FRONT EDGES CLOSER. WITH THE RAIN TODAY AND SOME DRYING OCCURRING
ALOFT...THIS WILL INCREASE THE CONCERN FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AT LEAST 1 MILE FOG TONIGHT.
LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FOG TO
BECOME DENSE. IF THIS DRYING OCCURS ALOFT...THIS WOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR DENSE FOG AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. ALSO...THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS FAIRLY CLOSE...SO IT WON/T TAKE
MUCH COOLING TONIGHT TO GET THE FOG TO FORM. HAVE TWEAKED PRODUCTS
TOWARDS FOG TONIGHT. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY
CLOSE EYE ON TRENDS AND POSSIBLY ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF
CONDITIONS BECOME FAVORABLE.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY AND PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION. VERY NICE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OVER THE REGION WITH
THIS LOW...WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 250 MB JET STREAK
LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW IS
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OUT OF OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA LATE IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. WE WILL SEE RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OCCUR OVER AS A TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE REGION AND LOW DEEPENS OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE TRACK OF THE
LOW PLACES A WELL DEFINED DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SO
WILL WILL SEE A SWATH OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE LOW. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL TRACK FROM FAR
NORTHEAST IOWA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WOULD CENTER THE BAND ROUGHLY FROM CHARLES
CITY...TO LA CROSSE...TO NEILLSVILLE. ANY SHIFT IN THE LOW TRACK
WILL RESULT IN A SHIFT OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON FAR SOUTHWEST INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
FOR THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SEEING A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO...IF SURFACE
CAPE CAN BUILD IN THESE AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK
DURING THE LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
A POTENT TROUGH DIVES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR INTO THE REGION.
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DOWNRIGHT RAW FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 18 TO 25 MPH WITH GUST APPROACHING 40
MPH AT TIMES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE COOLEST AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES GO FROM AROUND 5 C FRIDAY MORNING TO NEGATIVE 3 C BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW SNOW FLAKES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COOLEST AIR. LOOKING AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THERE ARE TWO CONCERNS WITH THE SNOW POTENTIAL. 1...THERE
MAY NOT BE ICE ALOFT IN THE CLOUD TO GENERATE SNOW AND 2...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MAY BE JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR IT TO FALL AS DRIZZLE IF
SATURATION ISN/T DEEP ENOUGH...OR JUST PLAIN RAIN IF ITS A LITTLE
DEEPER. LOOKING AT THE COOLER AIR ALOFT WORKING IN FEEL THAT SNOW
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNLIKELY. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S. PLAN ON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH COOL NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE.
A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWER.
PLAN ON HIGHS ON SUNDAY REBOUNDING SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES COULD WARM SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE TROUGH EDGES EAST AND FLOW ALOFT TURNS ZONAL. HIGHS COULD WARM
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
EITHER REMAIN WELL NORTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON....THUS PLAN ON RAISING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. KLSE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR IN BOTH. MEANHWILE THE VISIBILITIES WILL
LIKELY BECOME VFR AT KRST...BUT THE CEILINGS WILL LIKELY STAY IN
THE MVFR RANGE.
FOR TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THURSDAY MORNING...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE KRST/KLSE WILL STAY MAINLY DRY. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE DENSE FOG
WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE WINDS BECOME
LIGHT BELOW 850 MB....SO NO PLANS TO PUSH IT ANY EARLIER THAN THEY
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TAFS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
115 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE
AREA. OTHERWISE THE INITIAL FOCUS OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS THE
FIRST BAND OF WAA PCPN PROGGED TO WORK INTO SOUTHWEST AND THEN WESTERN
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. AT 08Z THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD
RAIN WAS WORKING OVER WESTERN IOWA AND IS BEING LED BY A SHORT
WAVE AND APPEARS TO BE LAGGING BACK A BIT FROM LATEST GUIDANCE.
ANTICIPATE THIS NORTH TO SOUTH BAND TO WORK INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN
SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL LIKELY BE DRY OVER
EASTERN WISCONSIN TODAY BEFORE THIS BAND WORKS INTO THE AREA.
AFTER A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SHOWERS OVER MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS
THIS EVENING WITHIN THE WAA SECTOR...ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF
DIMINISHED PRECIPITATION LATER TONIGHT OVER WESTERN AREAS AND THEN
MOST LOCATIONS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AGAIN LATER THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
AS FAR AS THUNDER MENTION...PLENTY OF LIGHTNING BEING DETECTED
OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. WILL KEEP SOME THUNDER MENTION IN THE
FORECAST LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WILL FOCUS THE MENTION
WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
THE UPPER SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO BECOME
MORE INTERESTING IN EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN. SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE FROM EASTERN IOWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AROUND 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATED
A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS AT 06Z THURSDAY...RANGING AS FAR
NORTH AS IRON MOUNTAIN...MICHIGAN WHILE THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION
WAS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE FROM
OCONTO TO SHEBOYGAN. THIS COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND DEPICTING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER AND WINDY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WOULD SUGGEST WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. MAIN STORY
WILL BE COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. IF WE GET
A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN...MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER ADDING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AS MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE AROUND 7 C/KM. DID NOT ADD THEM FOR THE MOMENT AS SOME OF
THE DETAILS NEED TO BE WORKED OUT. UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS ON HOW QUICK COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...COLD
ENOUGH FOR IT TO SNOW. IF YOU LIKE SNOW...THE GFS IS MOST PROMISING
FOR A QUICKER CHANGE OVER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ACCUMULATION
OVER THE FAR NORTH. THE ECMWF WAS WARMER WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...THUS LEAVES SOME QUESTIONS IF SNOW WOULD FALL OR EVEN
ACCUMULATE. THE 00Z CANADIAN WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE GFS.
DID INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCE. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OFF THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S UP NORTH...AND ONLY INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTH. DID LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY...
NOT AS LOW AS THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST.
BEYOND SATURDAY NIGHT...COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCES
OF RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
CIGS WERE MAINLY MVFR ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME CLEARING BETWEEN LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE STATE AND THE CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. CIGS
MAY IMPROVE TO VFR AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PREVAILING SHOULD
BE MOSTLY MVFR. SHOWERS THAT MOVED INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLIER
IN THE DAY WERE MAKING SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS SO HAVE KEPT CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TAFS DRY UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND
LEFT THE EAST DRY UNTIL THIS EVENING. HRRR SUGGESTS A RELATIVELY
SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN WHILE THE NAM/GFS/SREF/EC ALL HANG ON TO
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR QUITE A BIT LONGER. RIGHT NOW THE
HRRR IS LOOKING BETTER BUT HAVE DECIDED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION AND KEEP THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AROUND FOR LONGER. 12Z
MOS GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND GFS SHOWED LOW VSBYS IN FOG AROUND
12Z THURSDAY SO HAVE TEMPO GROUP WITH 1/2SM FG AT THE TAF SITES.
BASED ON WHAT I SAW FROM THIS MORNINGS OBSERVATIONS THERE DID NOT
APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...SO DID NOT USE IT AS THE
PREVAILING CONDITION. HAVE LEFT SHOWERS WITHOUT THUNDER TONIGHT
BUT WENT WITH A PROB30 FOR THUNDER ON THURSDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR DEATHS
DOOR.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MG
MARINE.........ECKBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1139 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
.UPDATE...THIS AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
SIGNIFICANTLY REWORKED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THE WAVE ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY IS
INTERCEPTING THE BETTER MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND YET ANOTHER
WAVE OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TAKING ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION
QUICKLY NORTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...A SPLIT IS OCCURRING IN THE PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR
CONTINUES TO DO WELL WITH THIS EVOLUTION...SO FOLLOWED IT. THIS
RESULTED IN REDUCING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES QUICKLY DOWN INTO
THE 20 AND 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A BROAD MID-LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. WITHIN THIS LONG WAVE
TROUGH...A CLOSED LOW WAS MOVING NORTH OUT OF ND INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH WAS PUSHING EAST
ACROSS NEB/KS. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OUT OF THE
WAVE...EXTENDING N-S FROM IA INTO EASTERN KS/OK.
LOOK FOR THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION TODAY. CORRIDOR OF MODERATE 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WAVE EXPECTED TO
DRIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER AS WELL. 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 12-15C RANGE
AHEAD OF THE WAVE. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE 60S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA.
LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT THEN A TAPERING TREND LATE IN EVENING/OVERNIGHT
AS THE WAVE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
RAINFALL...WIND...POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW MIX ALL A CONCERN IN THE
LONG TERM.
AFTER SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE DRIVING SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
DEEPEN THIS LOW AND TAKE IT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. NAM/GFS INCREASES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INTO THE 1-
1.5 INCH RANGE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS GULF
MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. BROAD 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW THURSDAY WILL
DRIVE INCREASING SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE
DAY. THEN AS THE LOW PULLS ACROSS WI THURSDAY NIGHT...INCREASING 850-
500MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE/FOCUS MODERATE RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...PLAN ON NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS TOWARD UPPER MI.
COLD AIR ADVECTION/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TAKE PLACE FRIDAY BEHIND
THE DEPARTING/DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. MID-LEVEL LOW/PV-ADVECTION WILL
ALSO PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
AS HIGHS TOP OFF ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S. SO
OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE RAW/BLUSTERY DAY WILL BE ON TAP.
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE SHOWERS
LATE IN THE NIGHT/TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
TIME THERMAL PROFILE COOLS ENOUGH.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY DAY AS HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S. BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL ADD TO THE CHILL. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. A COUPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PRODUCE PERIODIC SHOWER
CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY...MODERATING PERHAPS A
COUPLE DEGREES BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
EITHER REMAIN WELL NORTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON....THUS PLAN ON RAISING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. KLSE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR IN BOTH. MEANHWILE THE VISIBILITIES WILL
LIKELY BECOME VFR AT KRST...BUT THE CEILINGS WILL LIKELY STAY IN
THE MVFR RANGE.
FOR TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THURSDAY MORNING...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE KRST/KLSE WILL STAY MAINLY DRY. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE DENSE FOG
WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE WINDS BECOME
LIGHT BELOW 850 MB....SO NO PLANS TO PUSH IT ANY EARLIER THAN THEY
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TAFS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1245 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...
226 PM CDT
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS EVENING WILL BE ON POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLY IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CWFA THIS EVENING. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT THE
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK...WITH HIGHS THIS AFTN STRUGGLING TO WARM
BEYOND 70 TO THE MID 70S SOUTH OF A PONTIAC TO VALPO LINE. VERY
MOIST AIRMASS HAS PUMPED DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW/MID 60S THIS AFTN.
THE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO GET GOING THIS AFTN ACROSS
THE BULK OF THE AREA...LARGELY DUE TO THE THICK SOLAR SHIELDING. AS
THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHWEST IL THIS
EVE...THIS SHOULD HELP WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION. HI-RES GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING A LINE SEGMENT...HOWEVER TRYING
TO PIN-DOWN WHERE THIS LINE DEVELOPS IS THE LARGEST CHALLENGE.
EITHER WAY...EXPECT A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTH
TOWARDS CHICAGO EARLY THIS EVE. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE...A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD EASILY
PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE GREATEST SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF GIBSON CITY TO VALPO LINE...SO ANY STRONGER
STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THAT AREA COULD SEE STRONG ASCENT AND
POSSIBLY A ROTATING UPDRAFT.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHUD QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE EAST AS THE SFC LOW
LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...AND WINDS SHIFT WEST. 850MB THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER WILL
LIKELY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFT DAYBREAK FRI. LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN MILD...IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
STRONG PRESSURE RISES ARE POISED TO ARRIVE FRI AS THE PUNCH OF MUCH
COOLER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST
AT SUNRISE...OR SHORTLY AFTER. BY EARLY AFTN EXPECT TEMPS TO BEGIN
FALLING A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND MID
50S IN THE SOUTHEAST. 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ARRIVING OVERHEAD
MIDDAY FRI...WITH A PERIOD OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARRIVING MIDDAY.
WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING NORTHWEST AND WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINING
THE GUSTY WINDS SHUD PERSIST THRU FRI NGT/SAT MORNING. CURRENTLY
EXPECT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO ALSO PERSIST THRU SAT...HOWEVER COULD
SEE DRY AIR ARRIVING SAT MORNING AND PERHAPS RESULT IN A DRY DAY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWFA WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO MOVE BEYOND THE UPR 40S IN A FEW PLACES SAT...PERHAPS
REACHING 50 SOUTH OF I-80. YES FOR HIGHS...WHICH IS APPROXIMATELY
15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH WIND WILL LINGER SAT NIGHT TO
PREVENT FROST FORMATION...SO HAVE HELD THIS OUT OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST. BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN DIP INTO THE MID/UPR 30S.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIME/NORTH ATLANTIC...AS THE
ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN THIS FEATURE THRU THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED. THIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE PROLONGED TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...AND CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR. CLOSER TO LATER IN THE
WEEK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STRENGTH OF THE BLOCK WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN...HOWEVER SOME ELEMENTS OF TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE
WILL CONTINUE. PERIODIC SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL
CANADA AND BRING SOME LGT PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED...BUT NOT EXPECTING
AT THIS TIME ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* FAIRLY PERSISTENT RAIN THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH TEMPORARY IFR
VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER.
* IFR TO LOWER MVFR CIGS THROUGH DAYBREAK. MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
* WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY BY DAYBREAK AND INCREASING IN
SPEED. GUSTS OF 25KT+ LIKELY AT TIMES TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVE.
* CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A DYNAMIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS MOVING DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA THROUGH
12Z. WITH THE LOW EVOLVING OVER THE AREA WOULD EXPECT TO SEE IFR
CIGS BLOSSOM SOME BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. IN ADDITION...RAIN SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH DAYBREAK
THANKS TO THE SUPPORT OF THE DEEPENING LOW. WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME BREEZY.
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. MVFR CLOUDS
SHOULD BE SUPPORTED AT LEAST THROUGH NOON AND MAYBE EVEN MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. HOW WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON IS A CHALLENGE YET...BUT THE TREND IS BECOMING MORE
LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE SHOWERS IN THE REGION WHICH COULD BRING
AT LEAST TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AGAIN. IN ADDITION...WIND GUSTS
MAY ACTUALLY RAMP UP SOME IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT. CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER LATER FRIDAY EVENING INTO
OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY FILTERS IN.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH IN RAIN MORE OFTEN THAN NOT THROUGH DAYBREAK. HIGH IN
ENDING TIME OF RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING.
* LOW IN CIG HEIGHT THROUGH 13Z AS TEMPORARY HOLES TO VFR ARE SEEN
IN THE REGION AND MAY CAUSE RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS. IN
GENERAL...UNDER 1500 FT CIGS ARE EXPECTED.
* MEDIUM IN VISIBILITY THROUGH DAYBREAK.
* HIGH IN WIND DIRECTION AND MEDIUM IN HOW HIGH GUSTS WILL REACH
TODAY.
* MEDIUM IN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY...CHANCE SHRA AND MVFR CIGS EARLY.
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA LATE.
MONDAY...CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA LATE.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
1249 PM CDT
MAIN MARINE FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF
WESTERLY GALES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN
BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND TO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY FRIDAY
MORNING. IN THE PROCESS...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. A COMBINATION OF MUCH COOLER AIR AND THE TIGHTENING OF THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEEPENING LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING A
PERIOD OF 35 KT GALES DEVELOPING BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MAINTAIN THE COOL ADVECTION ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH WINDS SLOWLY EASING TO 25-30 KT SATURDAY NIGHT. DEEP LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LAKES ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SOME WEAKENING
OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
LAKES AS ANOTHER WEAKER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS LOOKS TO
KEEP WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT/ABOVE 20 KT INTO SUNDAY.
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
OVER THE ILLINOIS NEAR SHORE ZONES...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FARTHER EAST ALONG THE INDIANA SHORE.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ744-LMZ745...7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM
FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744-
LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878...4 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743...7 AM FRIDAY
TO 10 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1204 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Ongoing convection...as well as more stratiform rain and vcts
across the CWA this evening... and likely to continue. Forecast is
well representative. Though threat is dwindling for severe weather
in Central Illinois as the airmass is worked over and accessible
instability is highly limited...plenty of rain out there to
continue more of a flood threat. Area with the FF watch will
likely continue into the overnight hours. Precip rates have
reduced considerably and isolated areas are seeing some limited urban
water issues...but will continue to watch the issues through the
overnight hours. No immediate updates to the forecast anticipated
at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Two concerns with this part of the forecast are the severe weather
and flash flood potential.
Early afternoon radar imagery showing an increase in showers and
thunderstorms along and east of I-57. Areas southeast of I-70 have
had some breaks in the cloud cover, which has allowed CAPE`s to rise
to over 2000 J/kg. While the late morning severe weather outlook
covers the entire CWA, it is looking like areas south of I-72 will
be the main concern. Additional line of storms moving through south
central Missouri will be entering our forecast area very late
afternoon or early evening per the HRRR model. The high-res models
are also showing some convection along the front itself, which will
be entering the western CWA toward midnight and crossing the CWA
overnight. Forecast soundings are rather moist through 10kft, so
think that damaging winds and intense lightning will be more of a
concern than large hail.
In regards to the flood threat, the overnight rainfall deposited
from 2.5 to 4 inches along the southwest edge of the CWA as far east
as Taylorville, with more isolated streaks of 2+ inches near
Mattoon. Precipitable water values expected to be around 1.8 to 1.9
inches, which is about 3 standard deviations above normal for early
October. Another couple inches potentially may occur through
tonight, especially across the southwest CWA. Will leave the flash
flood watch in its current configuration.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
By Friday morning, the front will be through the area and any pcpn
will be in the form of showers and should only be in the eastern
parts of the CWA. So, early Friday pops will just be high chance and
then decrease during the day. However, with the upper level trough
still west of the area, any clearing behind the front will allow
cold air clouds and scattered showers to develop and spread across
the area for Friday afternoon. Will have slight chance pops in the
forecast for this type of pcpn. Once the trough rotates through, the
upper level cold low pressure area will drop into the Grt Lks and
bring continued daytime/diurnal clouds in the area for Sat and Sun.
Any pcpn associated with this will be very light, primarily be over
northeast IL, and not worth the mention at this time.
Temps will become cooler the end of the week and into the weekend,
after the front moves through. 850mb temps forecast to be around -2
to -4 for the weekend, so coldest temps look to be Fri night through
Sat night. Would not be surprised to see some frost in some areas in
the northwest Sat night, if clouds can clear out and winds become
lighter.
Cyclonic flow will remain over the area into the beginning of next
week, but not quite as deep as it is for this weekend. That being
said, the models do forecast another frontal system to move into the
area Sunday night and remain in the area through Monday night. So, a
chance of pcpn will continue over the area through that time period.
Past Monday night, any pcpn chances will be small, in the 20pct
range. This will only be seen in the grids, with nothing mentioned
in the worded forecast. So, unsettled pattern looks to take hold for
most of the week.
Temps through the extended will remain on the cool side, but as the
pattern becomes more zonal, there should be a slight warming trend
for the later part of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Generally, convection becoming shower dominated and losing vcts
threat for the most part. Have eroded that mention but front still
to the west and will continue the shower threat through the
overnight hours. Trof aloft remaining in place and although there
is currently a bit of a gap between the front over the Miss River
Valley and the stronger one well to the NW...the break in cigs is
narrow and will likely close quickly tomorrow if any clearing
skies move in. With plenty of llvl moisture in place... not
clearing out the TAFs, but will be optimistic enough to return to
VFR mid day and not bring it back down after sunset just yet.
Winds could be a bit gusty tomorrow as the pressure gradient
increases on the backside of the front.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 6 AM CDT Friday FOR ILZ040-047-049>052.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
133 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
...UPDATED SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
THE FIRST COLD FRONT IS EXITING OUR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES AS I
WRITE THIS DISCUSSION. IN THE WEST, CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SCATTERING OUT
AND WINDS SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY. BY 22Z, THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
SHOULD HAVE CLEARED OUT, AND BY 02Z THE EASTERN HALF. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN NEAR SUNSET, AND WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EVERYWHERE BY THAT TIME. NORMALLY, WITH RECENT RAINS AND
LIGHT WINDS, I AT FIRST CONSIDERED PUTTING IN SOME MENTION OF FOG
LATE TONIGHT. BUT THEN I REALIZED ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH PRIOR TO SUNRISE FRIDAY. WINDS BEHIND THE OVERNIGHT FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE NORTH AT 18G28KT, THUS NEGATING
THE CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOWS TONIGHT ARE VERY CLOSE TO WHAT
THE NAMDNG25 AND RAP MODELS ARE FORECASTING, RANGING FROM NEAR 40F
DEGREES IN WAKEENEY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, TO THE MID 40S FROM
LARNED TO DODGE CITY TO LIBERAL, AND TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS.
THAT 2ND COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WILL USHER IN COLD AIR. THE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH JUST A FEW CLOUDS WILL
BE PASSING AND SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY, TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL STRUGGLE TO RISE IN THE COLD AIR MASS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
ONLY REACH AROUND THE 60F DEGREE MARK FRIDAY NORTHWEST OF A JOHNSON
CITY TO GARDEN CITY TO HAYS LINE. WINDS WILL DROP OFF TOWARD SUNSET
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FALLS, AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RAPIDLY
DURING FRIDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SATURDAY WHILE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH A SERIES OF H5 VORT
MAXIMA WILL CONTINUE TO CYCLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, A NUMBER OF WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVES WILL HELP USHER SURGES OF DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. AS A RESULT, PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS WILL HELP REINFORCE
THE COOLER AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND 5C IN CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
THE 0C ISOTHERM WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS. ADDITIONALLY, THE MODELS INDICATE A LEE SIDE
TROUGH BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TURNING LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS MORE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST
KANSAS WHERE H85 TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSER TO 10C.
WITH THE HELP OF A DOWNSLOPE FLOW, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER WITH LOWS NEAR 40F. HOWEVER, LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30(F) IN CENTRAL KANSAS WITH AREAS OF
PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT SATURDAY ENHANCING THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS DRAWING WARMER
AIR BACK INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, MUCH COOLER
AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCKED IN ACROSS EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS RESULTING IN A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EAST TO
WEST ACROSS THE STATE. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
REACHING UP NEAR 10C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARD MID SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH H85 TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE 15C IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS EASILY UP INTO THE 70S(F) ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 70S(F), IF AT ALL, IN CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR
THE I-70 CORRIDOR DEPENDING WHERE THE GRADIENT SETS UP. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL THEN PROCEED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
A COLD FRONT NOW POSITIONED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL MOVE THE
THE ARE BETWEEN AND 10 AMD 12 UTC. AN ISALLOBARIC INCREASE IN
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BUMP NORTH WINDS INTO THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. SOME BRIEF AREAS OF BROKEN 1500-2500 FT
STRATUS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE TERMINALS
TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 62 38 73 50 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 61 37 74 49 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 62 40 75 50 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 64 40 75 50 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 60 36 70 50 / 0 0 0 0
P28 65 38 72 51 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MICHIGAN TODAY WILL USHER IN VERY
FALL LIKE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. COLD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S... FOLLOWED BY LOWER 50S FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NEXT WEEK AND RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES IN THE LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
THE MAIN ISSUE THIS MORNING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AS HEAVY SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC
COLD FRONT. DUAL POL RADAR PRECIP ESTIMATES INDICATE SWATHS OF
HEAVIER RAIN IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED... AND EVEN
A SWATH OF GREATER THAN TWO INCHES BETWEEN AZO AND BTL. SHOULD HEAVY
SHOWERS REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREAS... WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE FLOOD
ADVISORIES FOR A FEW COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TODAY WITH PRECIP
RATES DECREASING CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SFC COLD
FRONT. ALSO FALLING TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LOW/COLD POOL TO IMPACT THE AREA MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT/CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
ISOLATED TSTMS AS LAKE INSTABILITY RESULTS IN A FEW HUNDRED JOULES
OF CAPE.
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS MODELS SHOW LESS MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE LESS COVERAGE/PERSISTENCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR AWAY FROM THE W/SW FLOW LAKE INFLUENCE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER
LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA TODAY WILL HOLD IN PLACE LIKELY THROUGH TUE
OF NEXT WEEK. WE WILL SEE THE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS BE REPLACED BY
INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND SOME LAKE EFFECT FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE
OF NEXT WEEK. SHORT WAVES RIDING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW WILL
BRING THESE INTERVALS OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. WE WILL SEE BREAKS IN
THE SHOWERS...SO IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME. THE COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH NEXT TUE NIGHT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WITH DRIER CONDITIONS WITH MORE SUNSHINE
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. THE UPPER LOW WILL
FINALLY MOVE OUT BY TUE NIGHT AS A STRONG ENOUGH WAVE MOVING AROUND
IT WILL HELP TO LIFT IT TO THE NE. WE WILL SEE UPPER RIDGING BUILD
IN PLACE AS THE STRONG LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA AND ANOTHER STRONG
LOW MOVES OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. WE WILL SEE A SOLID
SRLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVECT WARMER AIR IN ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO AROUND 70 BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
RAIN TRENDS AND ASSOCIATED CIG AND VSBY TRENDS WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS WITH THIS SET OF FCSTS. RAIN HAS MOVED IN OVER MOST OF THE
TERMINALS AS OF 06Z THIS MORNING. KJXN HAS ESCAPED MOST OF THE
RAIN THUS FAR. MORE RAIN WILL BE MOVING UP INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. SOME THUNDER
WILL BE EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BEGINNING AROUND 13Z OR SO AROUND KMKG AND SPREADING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. IFR WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
THEN START TO IMPROVE AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER
BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN AFTER 00Z TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING IN ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SHOWS 40-45 KT NW WINDS AT 925 MB IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT THIS MORNING... SO WILL RUN WITH A GALE
WARNING WITH THE MORNING ISSUANCE OF THE NEARSHORE FORECAST. THE
WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS WEST WINDS CONTINUE
TO OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 35 KTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR A FEW COUNTIES THIS MORNING IF
HEAVIER SHOWERS REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREAS. OTHERWISE MOST AREAS
WILL SEE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN FROM THE SYSTEM PCPN AND THE LAKE
EFFECT RAINS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RIVERS WILL BE ABLE TO
HANDLE THIS RAIN AS IT OCCURS OVER A LONG TIME PERIOD.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MEADE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1209 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 248 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
The ongoing thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and early
evening ahead of a deep layer trough and an approaching cold front.
As of 19Z the cold front was just entering the northwest portion of
the CWA and slowly advancing eastward. The severe threat, hail and
wind, is very limited for our CWA and located across our far
southern counties along and south of a warm front. The front has
made very little northward progress due to reinforced cool air from
the morning/early afternoon convection to its north and thus it is
not expected to move much this afternoon. By later this evening the
warm sector will be shunted east with the passage of the
aforementioned cold front with much of the deeper convection east of
the CWA. There will be a low chance for post-frontal showers
and isolated elevated thunderstorms overnight tonight, but that
activity should not amount to much...per the HRRR and current 88D trends.
Near sunrise tomorrow a secondary cold front quickly moves in and
through the CWA behind the departing upper level trough. It will be rather
breezy behind the front with northwest winds gusting to as high as
30 MPH advecting much cooler and drier air. There will also be a
low chance pops for widely scattered showers...very hit or
miss...and diurnally driven.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Any clouds lingering into Friday evening over central Missouri will
be fast to scatter out leaving clear skies overnight. This will set
the stage for one of the coldest nights of the season so far with
temperatures in the mid to upper 30s across much of the area. Some
guidance is bringing parts of northern Missouri down below freezing,
but this seems too cold since west winds should remain around 5 to 10
mph overnight. Coldest temperatures should be west of us, closer to
the low-level ridge axis. Could still see some patchy frost across
eastern KS into northern Missouri early Saturday morning particularly
in areas sheltered from a westerly wind.
This ridge axis will pass overhead on Saturday keeping temperatures
seasonably chilly with highs in the 50s. Southerly winds on the back
side of this feature will prevent Saturday night`s temperatures from
getting much below 40 degrees while Sunday sees a nice warm up into
the upper 60s and lower 70s.
On Monday a very weak wave will rotate into the area on the back side
of a large Great Lakes upper trough. Could see a few showers from
this feature but overall precipitation chances are only 30 percent or
so. Once this passes through, slow height rises will build into the
Plains and allow temperatures to warm into the middle and upper 70s
by Weds and Thurs.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
VFR conditions are expected through much of the period as skies have
cleared. The next upper wave will bring a mixed deck of low/mid
clouds between 13-18Z. A brief period of showers and MVFR ceilings
will be possible during the mid/late morning. Otherwise, northwest
winds will increase and become gusty around/after sunrise, before
relaxing during the late afternoon with skies gradually clearing.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Pietrycha
LONG TERM...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Blair
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
358 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 325 AM FRI...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS LOCATED FROM
OFF ONSLOW BAY NORTHWEST TO NEAR ROCKY MOUNT EARLY THIS MORNING.
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM NEW RIVER INLET NORTHWEST TO KINSTON AND GREENVILLE.
GUIDANCE HINTED AT THIS FEATURE YESTERDAY BUT HAD A HARD TIME
TRUSTING IT BECAUSE LACKING SUPPORT ALOFT. LATEST NAM12 AND HRRR
HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THE LOCATION OF CURRENT WEAK
CONVECTION THOUGH THE NAM MOVES THE WEAK BOUNDARY EAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS WHILE THE HRRR DIES
OFF SHOWERS BY 12Z. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE HWY 17/70
LOCATIONS AND WEST THROUGH ROUGHLY 13Z...THOUGH LATER SHIFTS MAY
NEED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FARTHER EAST IF THE BOUNDARY
PERSISTS IN YIELDING LIGHT PRECIP.
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT WILL
SHIFT EAST OFF THE COAST TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SURFACE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SETUP THIS AFTERNOON HELPING
TO MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS AND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
WESTWARD MOVING SEA-BREEZE. LITTLE CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
TODAY AND WITH SKIES REMAINING PARTLY SUNNY...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND PERHAPS 1-2 DEGREES WARMER. MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE 82-84 F INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM FRI...THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT BRINGING WITH IT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS BUILDING TO AROUND 2 INCHES WITH
SW FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO THE MID LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY
POPS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IT APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH RATHER
QUICKLY SO QPF WILL BE LIMITED TO AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
MOST PLACES THOUGH COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
PRECIP AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPS MILD OVERNIGHT...WITH
LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE DUE TO SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT STILL SLATED TO MOVE OFFSHORE
AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY...TAKING ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. SKIES CLEAR QUICKLY DURING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH COOLER DRIER AIR SURGING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES TRICKY ON SATURDAY AND THINK WE WILL GET WELL INTO
THE 70S WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE LOWER 80S BEFORE THE STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. DRY AND MUCH COOLER FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES
WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONTINUING TO TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER EACH RUN...BUT WILL HOLD
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND TO MID 50S
COAST BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
STRUGGLE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 60S...BUT MODERATING INTO THE
70S FOR MONDAY. AFTER A DRY DAY TUESDAY...MODELS DIFFER ON THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK
WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A LOW CUTTING OFF TO OUR WEST OVER SOUTH
CAROLINA WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE UPPER FLOW MORE ZONAL
AND LESS MOISTURE. FOR CONSISTENCIES SAKE...KEPT POPS MINIMAL
UNDER BETTER TRENDS ARE DEVELOPED. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A
BIT THROUGH MID WEEK BUT STILL HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 AM FRI...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...THOUGH A WEAK BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER OAJ/ISO/PGV HAS
RESULTED IN SOME MVFR CEILINGS. THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST
SLOWLY THIS MORNING WITH MIXED MID CLOUDS EXPECTED. LIGHT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING AND MIXED CLOUDS HAVE HELPED INHIBIT MAXIMUM
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THUS FOG FORMATION HAS NOT DEVELOPED. DO
NOT ANTICIPATE FOG TO BE AN ISSUE PRIOR TO SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TODAY AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF THE NC COAST AND A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...MAY SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS WITH A FEW
SHOWERS DURING SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD CLEAR OUT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM FRI...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NE WINDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS 5-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS
ELEVATED 3-5 FT. OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS INDICATE
LIGHT ESE/SE WINDS WITH SEAS 2-3 FT. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY ALLOWING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO
SETUP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND WORK THEIR WAY NORTHEAST FOR
ALL OF EASTERN NC WATERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 3-5 FT NORTH AND 2-4 FT SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING THEN
BEGIN TO BUILD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE SOUTHWEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
TONIGHT MAINLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS...THOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS FOR THE SMALLER BAYS AND RIVER
TRIBUTARIES LATE TONIGHT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS PERFORMING BETTER THAN
WAVEWATCH SO WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE CLOSER TO SWAN.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE BY
MIDDAY SATURDAY...A GOOD NORTHWEST SURGE DEVELOPS BEHIND IT WITH
WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS REMAINING ROUGH WITH
LOCAL SWN MODEL SHOWING SEAS AS HIGH AS 7 TO 8 FEET THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH WINDS DIMINISHING...SEAS
SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE BY 18Z SUNDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ENSUE WITH WINDS AOB 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
259 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE
WEEKEND AND WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST AS THE AIR-MASS TRANSITIONS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. IN
THE MEANTIME...THERE IS SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE ONE SLOW
MOVING SHOWER PLAGUING THE NEW HANOVER COUNTY COASTLINE HAS PRODUCED
IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS ALONG THE WATERWAY. PROFILES INDICATE
THAT MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PLUME TRANSITIONS QUICKLY WEST TO EAST.
SUFFICIENT UVVS WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT SUPPORTS LIKELY POPS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING BEFORE
WINDING DOWN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ONLY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND CAPE 1000 J/KG OR LESS AVAILABLE FOR STORMS TO WORK
WITH THUS CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY TSTMS WILL REMAIN SUB-SEVERE
AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. MAV/MET NUMBERS IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS
IN THE 82-86 RANGE MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WARM FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REMAIN A FEW CATEGORIES ABOVE
NORMAL TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...ESSENTIALLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA UNDER A DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. IT APPEARS
SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST WITH LOWER 40S INLAND AND NEAR 50
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS THE
BOARD. DID NOT GO QUITE AS LOW AS THE NUMBERS FOR SUNDAY AM VIA A
LITTLE RESIDUAL MIXING. MONDAY MORNING READINGS INCREASE ABOUT THREE
DEGREES. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE A GOOD TEN DEGREES COOLER AS THERE IS
A DELAY IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY. NO POPS AND CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD BEYOND THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG THE COAST
WHEN THE BOUNDARY IS MOVING OFFSHORE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH THE
PERIOD BUT NOT BEFORE A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE PUSHES ANOTHER FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST NOW HAS
SLIGHT TO VERY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE
TO TIMING ISSUES AND CONSIDERING THIS IS A WEAKER SYSTEM AND THE
FACT SOME GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING ANY QPF. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
IN LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE
TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE
50S TO NEAR 60.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...KILM MAY SEE AN ISOLD SHOWERS AND SCT-V-BKN STRATO-
CUMULUS. STRATO-CUMULUS IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KCRE KMYR AND KLBT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING. OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVERHEAD PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE 12Z.
KLBT WILL LIKELY BE THE FIRST SITE TO DROP BELOW VFR...FOLLOWED BY
KFLO. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPO IFR/LIFR VSBYS WILL BE AT KLBT
FROM 09-12Z. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED TEMPO IFR FOR KFLO/KILM IN THE
10-12Z WINDOW...IN LINE WITH SOME OF THE LATEST HRRR RUNS. VSBYS AT
KCRE/KMYR MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DROP GIVEN THEIR PERSISTENT SOUTH
WINDS. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE CHOSEN TO REMOVE IFR FROM KCRE AND
KEEP BOTH TERMINALS MVFR THROUGH DAYBREAK.
TODAY WILL BE VFR WITH INCREASING LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE AFTN
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO
BECOME 8-12 KT DURING THE DAY. HAVE ADDED -SHRA BEGINNING AT 21Z
INLAND/00Z COASTAL SITES AS SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR...BUT
WAY TOO EARLY TO INCLUDE ANY RESTRICTIONS IN THE TAFS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY
SAT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THEN EXPECT VFR
SAT THROUGH TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...A SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
YIELD SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL
INCREASE TO 4 TO 5 FT AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS EVENING. PLAN TO USE
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE AS THE SOUTHWEST WINDS
PEAK AND SHIFT TO THE WEST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALSO LIKELY THIS EVENING...THEN ENDING DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...THE MARINE COMMUNITY WILL GOOD CONDITIONS AT
LEAST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL STILL BE A
LITTLE ELEVATED SATURDAY FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AT 15-20 KNOTS. BY
SUNDAY THE WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND TEN KNOTS OR LESS WITH BASICALLY
A VARIABLE DIRECTION. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
EARLY...3-5 FEET DROPPING APPRECIABLY SUNDAY TO 2-3 FEET.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD BE
WEAKLY FORCED. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL BE REPRESENTATIVE OF
THE LIGHT WINDS WITH 1-2 FEET.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
120 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE
WEEKEND AND WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1250 AM FRIDAY...INTRODUCED ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CAPE FEAR AREA. MOISTURE IS STILL LIMITED BUT RADAR MOSAICS SHOW
A WEAK BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD PENDER COUNTY. RADAR ALSO
SHOWS AN ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR SCOTTS HILL. COULD SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING AS A RESULT OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. RIDGE AXIS HAS MOVED OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND FLOW HAS
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY IN PLACES WHERE IT HAS NOT GONE COMPLETELY
CALM. ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS HAVE FADED WITH THE SETTING
SUN. EXPECT A DRY AND COOL OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S MOST PLACES. PATCHY FOG STILL A LIKELIHOOD THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AREA...POSSIBLY DENSE IN PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF THE REMNANT
SUBTROPICAL WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. A WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DISAPPEAR FROM THE WEATHER MAP BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS DEEP MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL CAROLINAS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS A VORT MAX WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH STILL BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.
MORNING SUNSHINE FRIDAY AND 850 MB TEMPS OF +14C TO +16C BOTH MEAN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ROCKET INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY BRING RAIN AND EMBEDDED
T-STORMS BY LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SC PEE DEE
REGION...SPREADING EASTWARD TO THE COAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
FORECAST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES LOOK INSUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...AND MY FORECAST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ONLY 0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES. THE PERIOD FOR THE
BEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 00-06Z
SATURDAY...COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST 300 MB DIFFLUENCE WHICH WILL
SUPPORT THE RAIN AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION.
AS OFTEN OCCURS LOCALLY THE FRONT WILL NOT COME THROUGH CLEANLY
IN ONE PIECE. THE SHIFT TO WESTERLY WINDS AND SOME DRIER LOW-LEVEL
AIR WILL ARRIVE AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. THE SIGNIFICANT
COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING WHEN LOW-
LEVEL WINDS FINALLY TURN NORTHWESTERLY AND 850 MB TEMPS START TO
FALL IN EARNEST...REACHING +3C TO +5C BY 12Z SUNDAY. WITH THIS
DELAYED COLD AIR ADVECTION I HAVE TRENDED FORECAST LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES...BETTER MATCHING THE
12Z NAM/GFS MODEL CONSENSUS. MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS REASONABLE
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S INLAND AND
LOWER 80S ON THE COAST...AND WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AROUND 50 ON
THE COAST AND DIPPING INTO THE 40S INLAND.
LOCATION FORECAST LOW SAT NIGHT LAST TIME IT WAS THIS COLD
WILMINGTON 50 MAY 20
FLORENCE 45 APRIL 17
N. MYRTLE BEACH 50 MAY 20
LUMBERTON 44 APRIL 24
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING SUN WILL TRANSITION TO
WEAK 5H RIDGING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE IS A
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY PRESENT IN THE FORECAST. RECENT MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS SHOW AMPLIFICATION OF MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WITH SOME SOLUTIONS SHOWING A CUTOFF DEVELOPING. EITHER
SOLUTION LEADS TO SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT...IN VARYING
STRENGTHS...OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS ALONG A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH
FROM CANADA.
THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TUE NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE CROSS THE CAROLINAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUMP DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION AND WEAK CONVERGENCE/LIFT WITH THE FRONT AND SOME WEAK MID
LEVEL SUPPORT DOES SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PRECIP LATE TUE
AND TUE NIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHC POP AT THIS
TIME GIVEN THAT CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE.
TEMPERATURES START OUT BELOW CLIMO WITH POTENTIAL FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING SUN NIGHT SETTING UP WHAT COULD BE THE COLDEST
MORNING OF THE EARLY FALL SEASON. TEMPS RETURN BACK TO CLIMO MON AND
HANG NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...KILM MAY SEE AN ISOLD SHOWERS AND SCT-V-BKN STRATO-
CUMULUS. STRATO-CUMULUS IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KCRE KMYR AND KLBT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING. OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVERHEAD PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE 12Z.
KLBT WILL LIKELY BE THE FIRST SITE TO DROP BELOW VFR...FOLLOWED BY
KFLO. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPO IFR/LIFR VSBYS WILL BE AT KLBT
FROM 09-12Z. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED TEMPO IFR FOR KFLO/KILM IN THE
10-12Z WINDOW...IN LINE WITH SOME OF THE LATEST HRRR RUNS. VSBYS AT
KCRE/KMYR MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DROP GIVEN THEIR PERSISTENT SOUTH
WINDS. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE CHOSEN TO REMOVE IFR FROM KCRE AND
KEEP BOTH TERMINALS MVFR THROUGH DAYBREAK.
TODAY WILL BE VFR WITH INCREASING LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE AFTN
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO
BECOME 8-12 KT DURING THE DAY. HAVE ADDED -SHRA BEGINNING AT 21Z
INLAND/00Z COASTAL SITES AS SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR...BUT
WAY TOO EARLY TO INCLUDE ANY RESTRICTIONS IN THE TAFS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY
SAT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THEN EXPECT VFR
SAT THROUGH TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...WINDS CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY
OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING AS THE RIDGE AXIS IS NOW WELL OFFSHORE
AND EAST OF THE WATERS. SEAS ARE RIGHT AROUND OR JUST BELOW 2 FT.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BE QUICKLY DISPLACED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT ZIPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. THIS FRONT
IS THE FIRST REALLY SIGNIFICANT ONE OF THE FALL SEASON AND SHOULD
REACH THE BEACHES OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15
KNOTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...TO 15-20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL
SHIFT WESTERLY AROUND 15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IT WILL
PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE COLD AIR TO BEGIN
BLEEDING SOUTH INTO THE REGION AS WINDS FINALLY TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT. SEAS INITIALLY ONLY 2 FEET
FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO 3-5 FT FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
BUILD NO HIGHER AS WIND DIRECTIONS VEER MORE OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LIMITING THE EFFECTIVE FETCH LENGTH.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SOLID 15 KT NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OVERHEAD LATE SUN WITH WINDS BACKING TO WEST-SOUTHWEST SUN NIGHT AND
MON. WEAK SURFACE HIGH LINGERS OFF THE COAST INTO TUE...MAINTAINING
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL RUN 2
FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR/SRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
128 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
OPTED TO THROW IN ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
WEST AND CENTRAL ND OVERNIGHT WITH VARIOUS OBSERVING SITES
REPORTING SNOW/RAIN/OR A MIX THE PAST FEW HOURS. NO ACCUMULATIONS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG ACROSS THE EAST...AND WILL PICK
UP ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND WEST AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY
MORNING. EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST
STARTING AT 15Z. NOT ALL OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL REACH
ADVISORY WINDS ON FRIDAY...SO LEFT A FEW COUNTIES OUT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1013 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD A WINTRY MIX IN LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS THROUGH
THE HAZEN AREA TONIGHT GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND SOCIAL MEDIA
REPORTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS ARE FOR THE STRATUS TO BEGIN TO CLEAR
FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE 06-08 UTC TIME FRAME.
THUS...SUB-FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS APPEAR LIKELY FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM BOWBELLS TO HETTINGER...AND A FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
WIND HIGHLIGHTS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE IF STRATUS CLEARS ACROSS THE
WEST...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO POSSIBLY FALL BELOW FREEZING.
THE 19-21 UTC RAP ITERATIONS AND THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS
SUGGEST THIS WOULD ONLY OCCUR RATHER LATE TONIGHT...AROUND 10-12
UTC...IF AT ALL. THUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT...AND
ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE FREEZE POTENTIAL AND ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTY FROM CLOUD COVER. WILL MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH
THE EVENING SHOULD A FREEZE WARNING BE NEEDED WITH LATER UPDATES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WINDS. COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED NEAR RUGBY IN THE
PAST HOUR. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE CARRINGTON AREA DOWN TO
LINTON AND ASHLEY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA YET THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA.
REGARDING WINDS...THE GREATEST FALL-RISE COUPLET THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DROP THROUGH THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE GIVING THEM A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS. DECENT FALL-RISE COUPLET AND THE STRONGEST
COLD ADVECTION THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH THE STRONGEST GRADIENT
WINDS OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIQUID THIS EVENING...EXCEPT
PERHAPS IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. AFTER
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S WEST TO MID 30S EAST...FRIDAY WILL REMAIN
COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A LULL IN
THE WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED
TO PICK UP AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE. THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN OVER
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AREAS TO THE WEST ARE EXPECTED TO SEE THE MIXING LAYER
LIFT INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A
POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE WIND ADVISORY INTO THE SOUTHWEST-SOUTH
CENTRAL DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS FREEZING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
CLIPPER. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR RAPID DIURNAL COOLING. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS
POINT IT SEEMS FAIRLY LIKELY THAT A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE IS IN
STORE FOR MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA. IF TRENDS CONTINUE A FREEZE
WATCH/WARNING IS LIKELY BY THIS TIME TOMORROW.
FURTHER INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING IN A FEW CLIPPERS. THE 12 UTC GFS/NAM/ECMWF HAVE ONE
ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THESE CLIPPERS.
BY MIDWEEK NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD TURN MORE ZONAL. THIS SHOULD
BRING A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE MID
60S RETURNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
VFR STRATUS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...SLOWLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT
/6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ002-010-018>020-032>035-040>047-
050.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-
021>023-025-036-037-048-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1141 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
NO FURTHER CHANGES NEEDED. WINDS IN MOST SPOTS NOT QUITE IN
ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT THEY WILL BE SOON AFTER 12Z. NOT WORTH
DROPPING AND THEN RE-ISSUING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1016 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
WATCHING THE HOURLY UPDATES FROM THE RAP MODEL AND HRRR MODEL AND
SEEING INCOMING 00Z NAM SEEM TO INDICATE A BIT WEAKER PRECIP BAND
AND A FARTHER SOUTHEAST SHIFT AND SLOWER TIMING ON WHEN 500 MB LOW
WILL CLOSE OFF. 00Z NAM INDICATES THIS WILL OCCUR LATER FRIDAY BUT
NEAR BRAINERD. HRRR/RAP HAVE MOSTLY LIGHT PRECIP THRU FRIDAY IN
NW/NCNTRL MN...AND TEMPS LOOK ABOUT 1-2 DEG WARMER AS WELL. ALL IN
ALL IT IS LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP AND NOT
ENOUGH INTENSITY TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN NW MN. I DO
THINK BEST CHANCE WOULD NOW BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM EASTERN
MARSHALL CO MN TOWARD BAGLEY-LAKE ITASCA THEN INTO THE OSAGE HILLS
BETWEEN PARK RAPIDS AND DETROIT LAKES. SO DID EDIT TEMPS/POPS/QPF
FOR THIS AND LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS TO MORE THE 1-2 INCH RANGE IN
THAT AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
BAND OF SHOWERS WITH FRONT MOVING THRU THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
ACTUAL MAIN STRONG WIND AND FALLING TEMPS LAG THE RAIN SHOWERS
ABOUT 1 HOUR. BY THE FAR THE BIGGEST REMAINS WHAT HAPPENS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND
UPPER LOW FORMS SOMEWHERE IN NRN MN. HOW MUCH PRECIP FORMS IN A
BAND WEST-NORTHWEST OF UPPER LOW FRIDAY....WHERE WILL IT BE AND
TEMPS IN BAND. HRRR/RAP ALL INDICATE IDEA OF PRECIP IN THE NRN RRV
TOWARD 12Z AND THEN WORKING SOUTHEAST...BUT SFC TEMPS APPEAR TO BE
MORE IN THE 36-37 RANGE. THE LAST 2 RAP MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN VERY
DISORGANIZED WITH PRECIP IN THE RRV AND NW MN AND HAS VERY LITTLE
QPF COMPARED TO SOME PAST RUNS. 18Z NAM/GFS TARGETS NOW
SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA-ROSEAU AREA. THUS ALL OVER THE PLACE AND
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW STILL IN WHERE/HOW MUCH ACCUMULATION WILL
OCCUR. DID TWEEK SNOW BAND AMOUNTS AND USED LATEST HRRR/RAP TEMPS
WHICH ARE A 1-2 DEG WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAD IN THE EARLIER GRIDS.
THUS END RESULT WAS A TIGHTENING OF THE SNOWFALL GRADIENT BUT
STILL INDICATE BEST BET OF 3 INCHES HALLOCK-THIEF RIVER-FOSSTON
WITH A SHARP EDGE EITHER SIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS COMPLEX UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NAM/GFS HAVE COME INTO PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM NORTHEAST ND INTO
NW MN...IN A NARROW BAND FROM NW TO SE. STRONG WINDS ARE NEARLY A
SURE BET ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY...WITH VERY COLD AIR
ADVECTING IN BEHIND FRONT.
FOR THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF VERY GUSTY WINDS RIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...PERHAPS
ENHANCED NEAR ANY STORMS. W/NW WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AND GUST
TO 40MPH ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL WITH
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE NORTH FROM
9Z-12Z...AND SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE LATE DEPENDING ON
WHERE HEAVIER SNOW BAND SETS UP. SNOW RATES WILL HAVE TO BE HIGH
FOR ACCUMULATIONS...BUT GIVEN THE FORCING THIS IS POSSIBLE.
ON FRIDAY...IT WILL BE VERY WINDY...COLD...WITH A BAND OF SNOW
LIKELY FROM EXTREME NE ND INTO NW MN...THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS
SNOW BAND IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...AND IF SNOW RATES WILL
OVERCOME VERY WARM GROUND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND NEAR A HCO-CKN-FSE LINE...AND GFK COULD BE
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF SOME LIGHT ACCUMS. ONE THING IS FOR
SURE...THERE WILL BE 50KT TO MIX AND IT WILL BE VERY WIND IN THE
VALLEY...AND IF HEAVY SNOW FALLS WITH THESE WINDS...VSBYS WILL BE
REDUCED. WE WILL ISSUE AN SPS AND HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL AND
HOLD ON ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WITH SOME QUESTIONS TO EXACT
PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL ACCUMULATING SNOW. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
SOMEONE TO GET UP TO 4 INCHES...SO WE WILL MONITOR CLOSELY. TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 30S WHERE IT DOES SNOW AND LOW 40S FAR
WEST.
FOR FRI NIGHT...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE EAST
THROUGH 3Z...AND TAPER OFF THEREAFTER. THERE COULD BE A WIDESPREAD
FREEZE IF SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS CALM DOWN...BUT IT WILL BE COLD
EITHER WAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
SATURDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH 500MB WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. AS A
RESULT THE CWFA WILL BE UNDER NORTHERLY CYCLONIC FLOW PROVIDING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT POP CHC THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY TO MONDAY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. THE 500MB
TROUGH WILL MEANDER OVER ONTARIO AND BRING ANOTHER VORT MAX...BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MAKING MONDAY THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY...500MB TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST WITH
NW FLOW BECOMING LESS NW AND MORE ZONAL ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO
MODERATE INTO THE 50S AND 60S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND 30S FOR LOWS.
SLIGHT TO CHC POPS WITH THIS FLOW REGIME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
GIVEN BY THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
IT WILL BE WINDY THRU THE PD WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 30 KTS AND
GUSTS TO 40 KTS AT TIMES MID MORNING FRIDAY THRU FRIDAY AFTN ESP
IN ERN ND/RRV. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS...THOUGH LOCAL IFR
CIGS PSBL AROUND BEMIDJI FRI AFTN. TVF/BJI WILL HAVE MOST OF THE
PRECIP IN THIS TAF PERIOD AND MENTIONED A RA/SN MIX FOR NOW FRIDAY
AT BOTH SITES.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ001>003-027-029-030-
040.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ004-005-007-
008-013>016-022-023-028-031.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
146 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THEN ANOTHER TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COOLING OFF FASTER THAN FORECAST WITH THE RECENT RAIN IN LUCAS AND WOOD
COUNTIES. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS ACCORDINGLY. THE RAIN WILL COME
TO AN END OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN FREE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
STRAY SHOWER. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AMPLE MOISTURE UPSTREAM SHOULD LEND ITSELF TO A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
LATEST RAP AND NAM RUNS INDICATE CLEARING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...BUT THE CURRENT
SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO SUGGEST OTHERWISE WITH MID
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SO
THE SKY FORECAST LENDS ITSELF TO PERSISTENCE RATHER THAN MODEL
OUTPUT...AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS WELL. HOWEVER...THE
HIGHER POPS WILL BE IN THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THEN DECREASE EASTWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE PROBLEM IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD
EAST AND WILL THE THUNDERSTORMS BE WIDESPREAD OR JUST A CHANCE. WILL
SPREAD THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHAT QUICKLY EAST
ON FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A LITTLE QUICKER. AT THIS TIME
STILL KEPT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO A CHANCE. WE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
SHEAR AND THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH IF THE AIR MASS
BECAME UNSTABLE WE COULD HAVE SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THIS THREAT WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED.
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL END QUICKLY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE COULD BE A LITTLE LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE EVENING
ESPECIALLY WEST OF CLE AND AKRON.
AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THAT WILL MEAN SHOWERS LIKELY.
ON SATURDAY A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS AN UPPER TROF
MOVES THROUGH.
A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AS TROFS MOVE THROUGH.
WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH THE
UPPER TROF IN THE AREA. STARTING WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW BEGINS
TO PULL AWAY LEAVING THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION MORE ZONAL...THAT
IS ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND GFSENS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH
THIS TRANSITION AND BRINGS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND MAKING FOR ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY. WILL TAKE NOTE OF THIS...BUT CONTINUE
THE FORECAST IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE TROUGH SLOWLY PULLING
OUT. THAT WILL LEAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND FOR NOW KEEPING THURSDAY DRY. LOWS WILL
STICK IN THE 40S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AND BY
THURSDAY RETURN CLOSER TO NORMALS...WHICH THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TIMING OF THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING. IT SHOULD ARRIVE AT TOLEDO AND FINDLAY BY 11Z
TO 12Z TIME FRAME AND THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT BY
THE TIME IT REACHES EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THAT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY COULD OCCUR TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDER. STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS THE AREA IN A GENERAL AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AS COLD
FRONT SLIPS BY...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE AS WELL.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY NE OH/NW PA...PERHAPS
LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP
TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY START AS EARLY AS THE MORNING FOR
THE WESTERN BASIN WITH WINDS GETTING NEAR THE 20-25 KNOT MINIMUM.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT THAT WILL PASS DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WINDS AND CONDITIONS
ON THE LAKE WILL DETERIORATE AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR SEVERAL DAYS. A
GOOD PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL BRING WINDS UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND BY THEN A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS A CERTAINTY. THE LOW GETS HUNG UP ACROSS
CENTRAL ONTARIO/NORTHERN LAKES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE WSW GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY TIGHT
AND A PERIOD OF 20-30 KNOTS WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WINDS BECOME A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LOW WILL STILL LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1155 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
A DECENT COLD FRONT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR TS DEVELOPMENT THAT IS
APPROACHING MIDDLE TN AT ISSUANCE. SHOWERS AND TS WILL TRAVERSE
THE MID-STATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE TIMED OUT THE TS
FOR EACH TERMINAL AS BEST AS POSSIBLE. SOME TWEAKS MAY BE
NECESSARY...INCLUDING AMD FOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS IF THE
LINE HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT IS OVER W TN.
AS WE APPROACH DAYBREAK AND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT NEARS THE MID-
STATE...CURRENT STORMS SHOULD BE NEAR/ON THE PLATEAU. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA. WILL COVER WITH VCTS FOR NOW.
GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT. A SOLID NW BREEZE SHOULD BE UPON US BY THIS TIME FRIDAY
NIGHT AND RAIN WILL HAVE MOVED E OF MIDDLE TN.
UNGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 858 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IS CURRENTLY IN GOOD SHAPE SO THERE WON`T BE ANY GREAT
CHANGE THERE OTHER THAN A QUICK TWEAK TO THE TIMING OF THE LINE
ARRIVING IN ANY GIVEN AREA IN MIDDLE TN. THIS GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE
ON OUR HOMEPAGE IF YOU`RE INTERESTED IN SEEING THE LATEST THOUGHTS
ON THAT.
RUC SOUNDING ANALYSIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE MS RIVER WILL HAVE
THE RIGHT ENVIRONMENT TO MAINTAIN ITSELF TO AT LEAST THE I-65
CORRIDOR AND MAYBE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST. THE ONLY THING THAT
COULD DERAIL THIS FROM HAPPENING ARE THE STORMS THAT ARE CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHERN MS. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THESE
STORMS WILL PUSH NEWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IF THIS
OCCURS...THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME POLLUTED ENOUGH TO GREATLY
WEAKEN THE LINE AS IT CROSSES OVER THE TN RIVER.
BARRING WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE LINE...AND THE
CONCERN FOR A TOR WATCH...THE MAIN THREAT STILL LOOKS LIKE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS VEER JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE WHICH IS HELPING TO FLATTEN
OUT THE HODOGRAPHS. THAT`S NOT TO SAY THE TOR THREAT WILL BE
ZERO...BUT ONCE SURFACE WINDS VEER TO >180 DEGREES...THE TOR
THREAT DIMINISHES GREATLY. FOR THIS REASON...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
CURRENT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WORDING FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
THE FRONT ITSELF IS STILL LAGGING WELL BEHIND THIS LINE AND ISN`T
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE MID-STATE UNTIL LATE MORNING TO MID-
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. THIS MEANS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. FORTUNATELY IT
LOOKS LIKE ENVIRONMENTAL RECOVERY WILL BE WEAK...SO WE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO SKATE THROUGH A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUB-SEVERE STORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MORE ON THAT WITH THE FULL FORECAST PACKAGE
LATER TONIGHT.
UNGER
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
27
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1235 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...SEE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...MAIN ISSUE IN THE FIRST 6 HOURS WILL BE THE TIMING OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT LINE OF
SH/TSRA TO APPROACH COT-VCT LINE AROUND 07Z. REACHING A LRD-CRP-
RKP LINE AROUND 09Z. COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CEILINGS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IN MVFR RANGE. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND
NEAR KVCT TERMINAL. STORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA BETWEEN 10-12Z WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD INCREASE...AND LAST SEVERAL
HOURS OF THE HRRR SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER
OR NOT STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH. BETTER
SUPPORT SHOULD REMAIN NE OF THE FORECAST AREA SO CONFIDENCE IS ON
ANYTHING SEVERE REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE. WILL NOT INTRODUCE SEVERE
WORDING INTO THE GRIDS JUST YET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
AS CONVECTION APPROACHES THE AREA. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST WERE NEEDED TONIGHT. CURRENT POPS AND WX GRIDS
LOOK REASONABLE FOR THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. REFRESHED THE ZONES AND GRIDS TO INCLUDE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...VFR MAJORITY OF TAF PERIOD WITH WINDOW OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS FROM LATE THIS EVENING THRU ROUGHLY SUNRISE. VERY HUMID
AIRMASS OVER S TX THIS EVENING SHOULD AID IN A REDUCTION OF VSBYS
TO AROUND 6SM BY LATE EVENING AT KCRP/KALI AND PERHAPS KVCT. VSBYS
MAY FALL TO MVFR LEVELS BY 6Z AT SAID TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT IS
SET TO MOVE THRU THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH/WIND SHIFT OCCRNG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCT TSRA XPCTD TO
DVLP ALONG THE TROUGH AND IMPACT AREA TERMINALS FOR ONE TO THREE
HRS OVERNIGHT. HAVE TRIED TO INDICATE BEST TIMING OF PRECIP IN
TAFS WITH TEMPO GROUPS...BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED BASED OFF
FUTURE CONVECTIVE TRENDS. SFC WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VRB THIS
EVENING AND THEN NNERLY AFTER TROUGH MOVES THRU...AND INCREASING
TO AROUND 15KTS AFTER FROPA. LLVL CLOUDINESS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY
MID MRNG FRI /PERHAPS EARLIER/ WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL
TERMINALS DRNG THE DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 87 63 82 67 85 / 40 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 86 56 81 61 85 / 20 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 87 63 85 68 88 / 40 10 10 10 10
ALICE 87 61 83 64 87 / 40 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 84 65 80 71 84 / 40 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 88 58 83 63 87 / 20 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 87 64 83 66 86 / 50 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 84 69 81 72 83 / 40 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
JM/75...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1140 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING ALONG BOTH THE WEST AND EAST COASTS OF NORTH AMERICA
AND LONG WAVE TROUGHING DEVELOPING IN-BETWEEN. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
PORTION OF THIS LONG WAVE TROUGH FEATURES A POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE THE NORTHERN STREAM CONSISTED OF A
TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WAS PRESENT ALONG THE MN/SD BORDER. DPVA AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAS SUPPORTED A BAND OF SHOWERS FROM NW IA
INTO CENTRAL AND NE MN. AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE...A
STREAM OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS HELPED SPREAD 1.5-2 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER THROUGH MO...IL AND NOW APPROACHING SOUTHERN WI.
THIS MOISTURE...THE TRANSPORT...DPVA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE AND 1000-2000 J/KG MUCAPE ACCOMPANYING THE HIGHER MOISTURE
HAS SUPPORTED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...SOME HAVE BEGUN TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST AREA
SITS IN A MASS OF LOW STRATUS...AIDED BY BEING IN A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE. TO THE WEST...THOUGH...A
WEDGE OF CLEAR SKIES EXISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...AHEAD OF A
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE TROUGH OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA
REMAINS PROGGED TO DIG THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. AND MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. BY 00Z SAT...MOST MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LOW
SITUATED RIGHT ON TOP OF LSE. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE
MOIST FLOW REGIME CURRENTLY SPREADING NORTH TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...IT SHOULD
BRING AN AIRMASS IN MORE SIMILAR TO LATE OCTOBER/EARLY NOVEMBER.
FOR TONIGHT...MUCH OF THE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS PROGGED TO
STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AND INSTABILITY ACCOMPANYING IT AWAY.
HOWEVER...WE STILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH THE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE
MN/SD BORDER HEADING EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. DPVA FROM THE SHORTWAVE
INTERACTING WITH 1-1.5 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AHEAD OF IT...ALONG
WITH SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD HELP BRING SHOWERS TO MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE RAIN IN
THE LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INTENSITY...GIVEN THE UNSTABLE AIR
STAYING AWAY FROM THE AREA. CANT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL GIVEN PRESENCE OF WEAK INSTABILITY PROGGED. THERE HAS BEEN A
TREND FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO GET OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
QUICKER IN 02.06Z/02.12Z GUIDANCE...SO HAVE ADJUSTED CHANCES
TOWARDS A DRIER OVERNIGHT. SKIES COULD CLEAR OUT FOR A TIME
OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS THE CURRENT WEDGE OF CLEARING IN THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS MOVES IN.
ON FRIDAY...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
IN...SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOSTLY A SUBSIDENT REGIME IN PLACE. THIS WILL
HELP KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY. HOWEVER...AS WE APPROACH
00Z SAT...ANOTHER BAND OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW THAT FORMS COULD BEGIN TO
APPROACH FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INCLUDED
20 PERCENT CHANCES JUST IN CASE. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ARE GOING TO
BE THE BIG DEAL FOR FRIDAY...THOUGH. A SUSTAINED 30-40 KT 925MB
NORTHWEST WIND WILL HELP DRIVE 925MB TEMPS DOWN FROM 8-12C AT 09Z
FRI TO 3-6C BY 18Z FRI...AND PERHAPS AS LOW AS 2C BY 00Z SAT.
THUS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD EITHER HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH
THE DAY. MANY LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY WITH VALLEY AREAS STANDING THE BEST CHANCE TO GET ABOVE
50.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
A POTENT AND FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING WITH IT SOME OF THE CHILLIEST AIR OF THE
THE FALL SO FAR. PRECIPITATION SHOULD PUSH INTO NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE EVENING THEN SWINGING ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO START OUT AS LIGHT
RAIN BUT WILL THEN SWITCH OVER TO A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. IN FACT..THE SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
ACCUMULATE A SLUSHY 1/2 INCH OR SO ON ELEVATED SURFACES AWAY FROM
VALLEY LOCATIONS. IF THIS SNOWFALL WOULD OCCUR IT WOULD BE THE 4TH
EARLIEST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR ROCHESTER...AND IF SNOW IS
MEASURED AT LA CROSSE IT WOULD BE THE 3RD EARLIEST. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. WE WILL SEE THE WINDS SWITCH TO
NORTHWEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE. THE COMBINATION OF THE
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH... AND
FALLING SNOW COULD CAUSE SOME BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SO WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL. IT WILL BE CHILLY
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY WILL BE A RATHER RAW DAY OVER THE
REGION...AT LEAST COMPARED TO WHERE WE WERE LAST WEEKEND. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES
WON/T MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THOSE
WITH COLD SENSITIVE VEGETATION SHOULD TAKE THE PROPER PRECAUTIONS
TO PROTECT IT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. IN
FACT...SOME LOCATIONS OVER CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL
LIKELY SEE A FREEZE OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES OVER THESE
AREAS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S...PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT.
COOL NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVER
CENTRAL ONTARIO WITH A DEEP TROUGH PERSISTING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. SOME RELIEF FROM THE COOL
WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND ZONAL FLOW SETS UP. HIGHS SHOULD
REBOUND INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
AS OF 03.0430Z...RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED NORTH AND EAST OF TAF
AIRFIELDS AS THE RESPONSIBLE SURFACE LOW IS JUST NORTHWEST OF
KGRB. DESPITE VFR CEILINGS AT KLSE...WOULD EXPECT SOME LOWERING
INTO AT LEAST THE MVFR RANGE AS BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUD SHIELD
APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS A NARROW
CLEARING WEDGE IMMEDIATELY TO THE WEST OF THESE CLOUDS ACROSS
CENTRAL MN AND COULD SEE SOME BRIEF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY AT KRST. HONORED THIS POSSIBILITY WITH A TEMPO GROUP
FOR 3SM IN MIST FROM 03.09Z TO 03.12Z. INCREASING MVFR/VFR CLOUDS
FROM THE WEST SHOULD SQUASH FOG POTENTIAL BY DAYBREAK. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 TO 25
KTS AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 35 KTS AT KRST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1002 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.UPDATE...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS ON TRACK WITH EARLIER
THINKING AND DO NOT PLAN TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES IN THE MORNING
UPDATES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEPENING MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SOUTH FLORIDA`S FIRST EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH, THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WESTERLY STEERING FLOW. THIS
ALONG WITH ABUNDANT DIURNAL HEATING TAKING PLACE WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR ALLUDES TO THIS THINKING WITH
CONVECTION GETTING STARTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AROUND 19-20Z AND
THEN MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST COAST METRO AREA THROUGH 00Z. THIS
WAS VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY`S PATTERN AND SEE NO REASON TO GO
AGAINST PERSISTENCE.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 840 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014/
AVIATION...
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ONSHORE AND INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY
MIDDAY. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY
CONDITIONS FCST OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014/
DISCUSSION...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL STATES
WILL AMPLIFY WHILE DIGGING SOUTHEAST AND THIS WILL SEND THE FIRST
COLD FRONT OF THIS FALL SEASON ACROSS SOUTH FL SATURDAY NIGHT.
GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS SCENARIO PLAYING OUT. THE 03.00Z ECMWF
IS DELAYED, BUT THE 12Z RUN CONTINUED WITH THIS SCENARIO...SO THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS REMAINS UNCHANGED.
FOR TODAY, TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THEN AS THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS
DUE TO A LIGHTER WIND FLOW REGIME, SCATTERED TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP. HIGH RES MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A TENDENCY FOR ACTIVITY
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF SEA BREEZE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...THEN
THE FLOW PATTERN SUGGESTS A TENDENCY OF MOVEMENT/ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST OVER THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST, ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN SUBURBS.
FOR TONIGHT, ACTIVITY WILL WANE DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER,
MODELS SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THIS
COULD IMPACT THE GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT SO REFLECTED THIS IN THE
FORECAST WITH INCREASING POPS THERE OVERNIGHT.
SOUTH FL WILL LIE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. PARAMETERS DO NOT
SUGGEST ANYTHING BUT ORDINARY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN RISK
BEING LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FL SATURDAY NIGHT,
DRYING SOUTH FL OUT BOTH FROM A RAIN PERSPECTIVE AND A HUMIDITY
PERSPECTIVE. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO THE LOWER TO MID
60S SOUTHERN AREAS TO POSSIBLY THE 50S ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAKING FOR A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE
IN AIRMASS. 12Z ECMWF DID NOT GO QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
LOWERING DEWPOINTS, BUT STILL UNDER 70F. THE MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY,
ALONG WITH TEMPS SOME 5-10F DEGREES COOLER, WILL SIGNAL THAT DRY
SEASON CAN`T BE TOO FAR AWAY. HOWEVER, THIS LOWER HUMIDITY LOOKS
TO ONLY LAST THROUGH MONDAY AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP AND THE
TROPICAL HUMIDITY RETURNS DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS AS THE
DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. /GREGORIA
MARINE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE, BUT AS WINDS
PICK UP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT AND TURN NORTHERLY
BEHIND IT, SEAS WILL BUILD ESPECIALLY OFF THE PALM BEACH COAST.
HOWEVER, RIGHT NOW ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OR SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
/GREGORIA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 87 76 87 71 / 20 20 60 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 78 87 73 / 40 20 50 30
MIAMI 89 76 87 73 / 50 20 50 20
NAPLES 88 78 86 69 / 20 30 50 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
641 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE EXTREME EASTERN AREAS BY 7 AM. THUS
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH MID MORNING WITH WINDS ON THE
INCREASE. THE NEXT RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN IOWA. IF CURRENT RAP TRENDS ARE CORRECT...
THIS PRECIPITATION WOULD REACH THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS AROUND MID
DAY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS THE MAIN LOW IN UPPER MICHIGAN WITH A WEAK
LOW BETWEEN KPIA AND KSPI. THE FIRST FRONT RAN FROM THE MAIN LOW
TO JUST EAST OF KUNO IN MISSOURI WITH A WEAK TROF BEHIND THE FRONT
IN EASTERN IOWA. THE MAIN COLD FRONT RAN FROM KDLH TO NEAR KLAA IN
COLORADO. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 60S AND 70S AHEAD OF THE FIRST
COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY 40S AND 50S AHEAD OF THE SECOND FRONT. DEW
POINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S WERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
THE RAIN SHIELD IS MAKING GOOD PROGRESS EASTWARD AND SHOULD BE
ALONG/EAST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KFEE TO KPIA BY SUNRISE. RAIN WILL
LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE FAR EAST AFTER SUNRISE. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SUNRISE AND DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...BUT NEW DIURNAL LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AS THE COLD AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NEBRASKA LOOKS TO
BRUSH THE FAR SOUTH FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE BIG STORY IS THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AND THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRATOSPHERIC
INTRUSION OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR MOVING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. THUS WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING THE MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST
GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRATOSPHERIC INTRUSION. INTERESTINGLY...
TRENDS WITH THE PRESSURE FALLS WOULD SUPPORT THE STRONGEST WINDS
BEING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A LITTLE OFF THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.
HOWEVER...ONCE THE SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DO A SLOW FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE CLOUDS.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WRAP AROUND CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS. THE RAIN FALLING IN THE DRY
ATMOSPHERE WILL COOL THE COLUMN WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOPING IN
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS FOR AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30.
ANY SNOW THAT DOES OCCUR LATE TONIGHT WILL MELT ON CONTACT WITH THE
VERY WARM GROUND.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS PROGGED TO
LIFT INTO ONTARIO AND PHASE WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY RESULTING IN
DEEPENING UPPER LOW MEANDERING ABOUT THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN NORTHWEST
FLOW... WHICH WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF PCPN MAINLY IN THE AM ACROSS
NORTHEAST 1/3-1/2 WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. FAVORABLE THERMAL PARAMETERS NORTH (850 TEMPS -3 TO -4C AND
925 TEMPS AROUND 0 TO -1C) WITH WBZ AROUND 1500 FT AGL SUGGEST POTENTIAL
FOR SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN WITH ANY LIGHT RAIN... MOSTLY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST IA AND NORTHWEST IL AROUND SUNRISE AND
SHORTLY THEREAFTER BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN THEN ENDING GENERALLY
PRIOR TO MIDDAY. BLUSTERY AND COOL WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL AND
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT... CHILLY LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S ANTICIPATED WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT. CHALLENGE WILL BE AMOUNT
OF MID CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT W/SW WINDS AND IMPACT ON TEMPS AND ALSO FROST
POTENTIAL. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT FROST MENTION PATCHY ATTIM AND NORTH OF I-80.
SUNDAY-THURSDAY... CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATING. PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWER CHANCES AS IMPULSES SHUTTLED DOWN ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW... WITH CONSENSUS FOCUSING ON MONDAY AND LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS MAIN PCPN WINDOWS BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW THIS
FAR OUT. LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK SOME INDICATION THAT FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO SEMI-ZONAL WHICH WILL BRING ABOUT SOME MODERATION ON TEMPS
CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
AN AREA OF 1-2 KFT AGL CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA IS NOT BEING
HANDLED BY THE MODELS AND WILL OVERSPREAD EASTERN IOWA. DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH THESE CLOUD CIGS TO VFR BY 00Z/04.
AFT 06Z/04 MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST IOWA WITH THE
POSSIBLY OF RAIN MIXED WITH A LITTLE SNOW.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
918 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MICHIGAN TODAY WILL USHER IN VERY
FALL LIKE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. COLD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S... FOLLOWED BY LOWER 50S FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NEXT WEEK AND RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES IN THE LOWER 60S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
DECIDED TO GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES.
MUSKEGON GLERL SHOWED GUSTS OF 45 KNOTS WITH THE MOST RECENT
OBSERVATION...CLOSE TO WHAT THE FSL RUC WAS SHOWING. THIS MODEL
SHOWS SUCH WINDS PUSHING INLAND FOR THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES. I
SUSPECT THE MODEL MAY BE HIGH...BUT WITH LEAVES ON THE TREES AND
THE LIKELIHOOD OF GREATER THAN 45 MPH WINDS OVER THE LAND...WE
SHOULD SEE SOME POWER OUTAGES. THIS LOOKS TO BE A SHORT DURATION
EVENT...MAINLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...BUT THE ADVISORY CRITERIA ONLY FOR THIS
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
THE MAIN ISSUE THIS MORNING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AS HEAVY SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC
COLD FRONT. DUAL POL RADAR PRECIP ESTIMATES INDICATE SWATHS OF
HEAVIER RAIN IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED... AND EVEN
A SWATH OF GREATER THAN TWO INCHES BETWEEN AZO AND BTL. SHOULD HEAVY
SHOWERS REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREAS... WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE FLOOD
ADVISORIES FOR A FEW COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TODAY WITH PRECIP
RATES DECREASING CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SFC COLD
FRONT. ALSO FALLING TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LOW/COLD POOL TO IMPACT THE AREA MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT/CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
ISOLATED TSTMS AS LAKE INSTABILITY RESULTS IN A FEW HUNDRED JOULES
OF CAPE.
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS MODELS SHOW LESS MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE LESS COVERAGE/PERSISTENCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR AWAY FROM THE W/SW FLOW LAKE INFLUENCE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER
LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA TODAY WILL HOLD IN PLACE LIKELY THROUGH TUE
OF NEXT WEEK. WE WILL SEE THE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS BE REPLACED BY
INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND SOME LAKE EFFECT FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE
OF NEXT WEEK. SHORT WAVES RIDING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW WILL
BRING THESE INTERVALS OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. WE WILL SEE BREAKS IN
THE SHOWERS...SO IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME. THE COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH NEXT TUE NIGHT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WITH DRIER CONDITIONS WITH MORE SUNSHINE
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. THE UPPER LOW WILL
FINALLY MOVE OUT BY TUE NIGHT AS A STRONG ENOUGH WAVE MOVING AROUND
IT WILL HELP TO LIFT IT TO THE NE. WE WILL SEE UPPER RIDGING BUILD
IN PLACE AS THE STRONG LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA AND ANOTHER STRONG
LOW MOVES OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. WE WILL SEE A SOLID
SRLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVECT WARMER AIR IN ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO AROUND 70 BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. A FEW TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH 14Z EAST OF
HIGHWAY 131 INCLUDING LAN AND JXN.
AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD BE OVER WITH BY 18Z WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SFC COLD FRONT ALTHOUGH NUMEROUS MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY AFTER FROPA THIS MORNING AND
BECOME STRONG...WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS THIS AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS
SHOULD RELAX AFTER 00Z TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LK MI
SHORELINE INCLUDING MKG.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SHOWS 40-45 KT NW WINDS AT 925 MB IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT THIS MORNING... SO WILL RUN WITH A GALE
WARNING WITH THE MORNING ISSUANCE OF THE NEARSHORE FORECAST. THE
WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS WEST WINDS CONTINUE
TO OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 35 KTS.
WATERSPOUTS A GOOD POSSIBILITY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT PER THE
WADE SZILAGYI /MET SVCS OF CANADA/ NOMOGRAM. WINDS DECREASE A TAD
AND EXTREME INSTABILITY EXPECTED WITH LK MI SFC TEMPS AROUND 17C
AND H8 TEMPS NEAR -4. CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTHS OF AT LEAST 10-15K
FT LIKELY PER FCST SNDGS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR A FEW COUNTIES THIS MORNING IF
HEAVIER SHOWERS REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREAS. OTHERWISE MOST AREAS
WILL SEE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN FROM THE SYSTEM PCPN AND THE LAKE
EFFECT RAINS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RIVERS WILL BE ABLE TO
HANDLE THIS RAIN AS IT OCCURS OVER A LONG TIME PERIOD.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ037-043-050-
056-064-071.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MEADE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
752 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MICHIGAN TODAY WILL USHER IN VERY
FALL LIKE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. COLD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S... FOLLOWED BY LOWER 50S FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NEXT WEEK AND RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES IN THE LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
THE MAIN ISSUE THIS MORNING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AS HEAVY SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC
COLD FRONT. DUAL POL RADAR PRECIP ESTIMATES INDICATE SWATHS OF
HEAVIER RAIN IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED... AND EVEN
A SWATH OF GREATER THAN TWO INCHES BETWEEN AZO AND BTL. SHOULD HEAVY
SHOWERS REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREAS... WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE FLOOD
ADVISORIES FOR A FEW COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TODAY WITH PRECIP
RATES DECREASING CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SFC COLD
FRONT. ALSO FALLING TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LOW/COLD POOL TO IMPACT THE AREA MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT/CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
ISOLATED TSTMS AS LAKE INSTABILITY RESULTS IN A FEW HUNDRED JOULES
OF CAPE.
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS MODELS SHOW LESS MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE LESS COVERAGE/PERSISTENCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR AWAY FROM THE W/SW FLOW LAKE INFLUENCE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER
LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA TODAY WILL HOLD IN PLACE LIKELY THROUGH TUE
OF NEXT WEEK. WE WILL SEE THE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS BE REPLACED BY
INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND SOME LAKE EFFECT FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE
OF NEXT WEEK. SHORT WAVES RIDING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW WILL
BRING THESE INTERVALS OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. WE WILL SEE BREAKS IN
THE SHOWERS...SO IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME. THE COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH NEXT TUE NIGHT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WITH DRIER CONDITIONS WITH MORE SUNSHINE
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. THE UPPER LOW WILL
FINALLY MOVE OUT BY TUE NIGHT AS A STRONG ENOUGH WAVE MOVING AROUND
IT WILL HELP TO LIFT IT TO THE NE. WE WILL SEE UPPER RIDGING BUILD
IN PLACE AS THE STRONG LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA AND ANOTHER STRONG
LOW MOVES OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. WE WILL SEE A SOLID
SRLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVECT WARMER AIR IN ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO AROUND 70 BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. A FEW TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH 14Z EAST OF
HIGHWAY 131 INCLUDING LAN AND JXN.
AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD BE OVER WITH BY 18Z WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SFC COLD FRONT ALTHOUGH NUMEROUS MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY AFTER FROPA THIS MORNING AND
BECOME STRONG...WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS THIS AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS
SHOULD RELAX AFTER 00Z TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LK MI
SHORELINE INCLUDING MKG.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SHOWS 40-45 KT NW WINDS AT 925 MB IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT THIS MORNING... SO WILL RUN WITH A GALE
WARNING WITH THE MORNING ISSUANCE OF THE NEARSHORE FORECAST. THE
WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS WEST WINDS CONTINUE
TO OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 35 KTS.
WATERSPOUTS A GOOD POSSIBILTY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT PER THE
WADE SZILAGYI /MET SVCS OF CANADA/ NOMOGRAM. WINDS DECREASE A TAD
AND EXTREME INSTABILITY EXPECTED WITH LK MI SFC TEMPS AROUND 17C
AND H8 TEMPS NEAR -4. CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTHS OF AT LEAST 10-15K
FT LIKELY PER FCST SNDGS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR A FEW COUNTIES THIS MORNING IF
HEAVIER SHOWERS REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREAS. OTHERWISE MOST AREAS
WILL SEE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN FROM THE SYSTEM PCPN AND THE LAKE
EFFECT RAINS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RIVERS WILL BE ABLE TO
HANDLE THIS RAIN AS IT OCCURS OVER A LONG TIME PERIOD.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MEADE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1007 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.UPDATE...HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED FOR LATEST TRENDS AND
HIGHS ADJUSTED DOWN BY 1-2F DEGREES WITH CLOUD COVER LOOKING TO
PERSIST A LITTLE LONGER. STILL EXPECT FOR CLOUDS TO CLEAR BY LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTH OVER THE
REGION.
.DISCUSSION...THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WENT THROUGH LAST
NIGHT HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF REGION THIS MORNING WHILE
CONTINUING TO LOSE ITS VIGOR. SEVERAL CLOUD DECKS PERSIST HOWEVER
AND THIS IS KEEPING TEMP TRENDS DOWN SO FAR THIS MORNING. VISIBLE
SAT IMAGERY REVEALS MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER TOP OF LOW STRATUS
WITH A SHARP CLEARING EDGE ACROSS THE MS DELTA MARKING THE POSITION
OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, CAA CUMULUS AND STRATUS ARE DEVELOPING
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AS ENOUGH MOISTURE EXISTS WITHIN THE MIXING
BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS CLOUD EVOLUTION THROUGH THE DAY WILL MAKE FOR A
TRICKY HIGH TEMP FORECAST. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS 1-2F DEGREES ON
MORNING UPDATE AND WILL MONITOR CLOUD CLEARING TRENDS. HRRR HOLDS ON
TO LOWER CLOUD COVER THROUGH 2-3PM AND HIGH CLOUDS TILL AROUND 6PM
AND FEEL CURRENT GFSLAMP GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE TOO WARM BIASED. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE ACTUAL FRONT MOVES
THROUGH IN EAST MS AND WILL ONLY CARRY MINIMAL 15-20% POPS NOW
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ALL CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON
TO EARLY EVENING WITH CRYSTAL CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND SOME OF THE
COOLEST LOW TEMPS THUS FAR OF THE SEASON.
UPDATES ARE OUT AND AN UPDATED AVIATION CAN BE FOUND DIRECTLY BELOW.
/ALLEN/
&&
.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WAS NOTED JUST THROUGH GWO AT 14Z. THE
FRONT WILL SHIFT SE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. VFR CONDS AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WL FOLLOW THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN AND CIGS FROM VFR-IFR CAN BE EXPECTED. NO TSTMS ARE EXPECTED
BUT PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WL BE OBSERVED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL.
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /22/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND
IS APPROACHING THE ARKLAMISS. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
MORNING RESULTING IN QUICKLY DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES. THERE WILL BE
SOME CLEARING/MIXING BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND PRIOR TO THE
DEEPER COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TODAY. THAT WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S OVER MOST OF THE
ARKLAMISS TODAY.
OTHERWISE...THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COOL SNAP WILL BEGIN TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
SATURDAY WILL SEE SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS ONLY MANAGING TO GET INTO
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A VERY COOL
NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING WELL INTO THE 40S AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS. OVERALL... TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMATIC DAILY NORMALS. /EC/
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS HIGHS TOP OUT FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
REGION...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ENSUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING
IN SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE NEW WORK WEEK.
A WEAK FRONT WILL AGAIN BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE CWA MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN MOVES OUT OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...WITH QUIET BUT CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MORE RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO ENTER
THE FORECAST NEXT FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST
INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. /19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 81 49 71 43 / 21 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 83 48 70 39 / 41 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 82 44 72 42 / 16 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 85 54 73 43 / 43 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 81 47 70 45 / 21 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 80 46 71 45 / 3 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 79 48 68 42 / 7 0 0 0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
ALLEN/22/EC/19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
612 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE
WEEKEND AND WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM FRIDAY...DENSE FOG IS BECOMING WIDESPREAD AND AS A RESULT
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
VSBYS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 13Z. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS
ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST AS THE AIR-MASS
TRANSITIONS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. IN THE MEANTIME...THERE IS
SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE ONE SLOW MOVING SHOWER PLAGUING
THE NEW HANOVER COUNTY COASTLINE HAS PRODUCED IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL
TOTALS ALONG THE WATERWAY. PROFILES INDICATE THAT MOISTURE WILL BE
DEEPEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE PLUME TRANSITIONS QUICKLY WEST TO EAST. SUFFICIENT UVVS WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTS LIKELY
POPS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDING DOWN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND CAPE 1000 J/KG OR
LESS AVAILABLE FOR STORMS TO WORK WITH THUS CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
ANY TSTMS WILL REMAIN SUB-SEVERE AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. MAV/MET
NUMBERS IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE 82-86 RANGE MOST
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WARM FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO REMAIN A FEW CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...ESSENTIALLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA UNDER A DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. IT
APPEARS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST WITH LOWER 40S INLAND AND
NEAR 50 RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
ACROSS THE BOARD. DID NOT GO QUITE AS LOW AS THE NUMBERS FOR SUNDAY
AM VIA A LITTLE RESIDUAL MIXING. MONDAY MORNING READINGS INCREASE
ABOUT THREE DEGREES. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE A GOOD TEN DEGREES COOLER
AS THERE IS A DELAY IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY. NO POPS AND
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD BEYOND THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS
ALONG THE COAST WHEN THE BOUNDARY IS MOVING OFFSHORE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH
THE PERIOD BUT NOT BEFORE A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE PUSHES ANOTHER FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST NOW HAS
SLIGHT TO VERY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE
TO TIMING ISSUES AND CONSIDERING THIS IS A WEAKER SYSTEM AND THE
FACT SOME GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING ANY QPF. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
IN LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE
TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE
50S TO NEAR 60.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...KILM MAY SEE AN ISOLD SHOWERS AND SCT-V-BKN STRATO-
CUMULUS. STRATO-CUMULUS IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KCRE KMYR AND KLBT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING. OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVERHEAD PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE 12Z.
KLBT WILL LIKELY BE THE FIRST SITE TO DROP BELOW VFR...FOLLOWED BY
KFLO. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPO IFR/LIFR VSBYS WILL BE AT KLBT
FROM 09-12Z. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED TEMPO IFR FOR KFLO/KILM IN THE
10-12Z WINDOW...IN LINE WITH SOME OF THE LATEST HRRR RUNS. VSBYS AT
KCRE/KMYR MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DROP GIVEN THEIR PERSISTENT SOUTH
WINDS. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE CHOSEN TO REMOVE IFR FROM KCRE AND
KEEP BOTH TERMINALS MVFR THROUGH DAYBREAK.
TODAY WILL BE VFR WITH INCREASING LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE AFTN
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO
BECOME 8-12 KT DURING THE DAY. HAVE ADDED -SHRA BEGINNING AT 21Z
INLAND/00Z COASTAL SITES AS SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR...BUT
WAY TOO EARLY TO INCLUDE ANY RESTRICTIONS IN THE TAFS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY
SAT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THEN EXPECT VFR
SAT THROUGH TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM FRIDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT COASTAL
WATERS FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
YIELD SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL
INCREASE TO 4 TO 5 FT AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS EVENING. PLAN TO USE
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE AS THE SOUTHWEST WINDS
PEAK AND SHIFT TO THE WEST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALSO LIKELY THIS EVENING...THEN ENDING DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...THE MARINE COMMUNITY WILL GOOD CONDITIONS AT
LEAST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL STILL BE A
LITTLE ELEVATED SATURDAY FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AT 15-20 KNOTS. BY
SUNDAY THE WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND TEN KNOTS OR LESS WITH BASICALLY
A VARIABLE DIRECTION. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
EARLY...3-5 FEET DROPPING APPRECIABLY SUNDAY TO 2-3 FEET.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD BE
WEAKLY FORCED. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL BE REPRESENTATIVE OF
THE LIGHT WINDS WITH 1-2 FEET.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-
024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-
099-105-107-109.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR/SRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
643 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...
BACK EDGE OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW EXTENDS FROM LAFAYETTE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH MANCHESTER. THE COLD FRONT IS STILL WELL TO OUR
WEST AND IS JUST NOW APPROACHING THE MS RIVER. MODELS STILL AGREE
THAT SOME DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE PLATEAU AREA BY
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MID STATE
TODAY BUT THE ACTIVITY LOOKS WEAK WITH LITTLE ORGANIZATION.
WILL GO AHEAD AND UPDATE THE GRIDS AND LOWER POPS SOME MORE AS
WELL AS LEAN MORE TOWARD A DECREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MARCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS
MORNING. AT 235 PM THE LINE WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF I-65. NO
REPORTS OF SEVERE ACTIVITY THUS FAR AND THE TOR WATCH HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. JUST ISSUED AN UPDATED ZONE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT.
THE ACTIVITY WE ARE SEEING THIS MORNING IS PREFRONTAL AS THE MAIN
COLD FRONT IS STILL BACK ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF BOTH MO AND AR.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD AND SHOULD REACH MIDDLE TN
BETWEEN 7AM AND 10 AM THIS MORNING. IT SHOULD THEN CLEAR THE PLATEAU
BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
FOR TODAY...GIVEN THE ISSUANCE AT 4AM...WILL INCLUDE CATEGORICAL
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR THE EASTERN HALF FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
AND THEN LESSEN BOTH THE POPS AND TSTM CHANCES THE FURTHER WEST YOU
GO. IN THE POST FRONTAL SECTOR...NEUTRAL AND/OR NEG VORT ADVECTION
IS INDICATED. ADDITIONALLY...SFC TO 850 DIRECTIONAL DISPLACEMENT
LOOKS MINIMAL. THEREFORE...LIFT IN THE POST FRONTAL SECTOR LOOKS
MINIMAL AND WILL THEREFORE LEAN TOWARD SHUTTING DOWN THE PRECIP
BEHIND THE FRONT FROM WEST TO EAST.
QPF AMOUNTS THUS FAR WITH THE LINE ARE A GOOD 50-75% OR SO OF WHAT
THE MODELS WERE EXPECTING. SO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
HOURS...THE MAXIMUM IMPACT WILL BE THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 40 MPH OR SO.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM. CAA WILL BE IN PLACE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH SO AS TO WARRANT THE
NEED FOR AFTERNOON FALLING TEMP WORDING.
FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH
WILL BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN TX. THUS...WINDS WILL STAY A BIT
ELEVATED AND I WILL GO A LITTLE ABOVE THE GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS. STILL
THOUGH...LOWER 40S EXPECTED FOR MANY AREAS.
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT RATHER CHILLY DAY COMPARED
TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN. 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO ZERO AND HIGH
TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S...UPPER 50S PLATEAU.
FURTHERMORE...THE GRADIENT WILL NOT RELAX MUCH UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
SO WE WILL HAVE A NORTHERLY BREEZE OF 10 TO 15 MPH OR SO.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LOCATION OF THE SFC HIGH WILL BE JUST TO OUR
SOUTH. TIME HEIGHT RH FIELDS SHOW RATHER DRY AIR THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE LOWER LEVELS. THEREFORE...IT LOOKS BELIEVABLE THAT LOW TEMPS
SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR MANY AREAS.
THE PLATEAU WILL LIKELY SEE MID 30S WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT FROST.
A QUICK WARMUP IS EXPECTED FRO SUNDAY. 24HR 850 MB DELTA-T VALUES
WILL APPROACH 10C ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE WARMUP. FOR INSTANCE...GFS MOS INDICATES A 36F DIURNAL
SWING AT CKV. IT DOES LOOK AS THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
MAY COME INTO PLAY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL UNDERCUT THE WARMTH
THAT IS EXPECTED BY THE MODELS FOR SUNDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...THE WARMUP WILL CONTINUE WITH
LOWER 80S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. STILL LOOKING AT SOME WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND THEN A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. OTW...WARM PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED
AFTER A QUICK TASTE OF FALL THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
941 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EXIT
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN OVER THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE APPALACHIANS FROM
THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AHEAD
OF IT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 938 AM EDT FRIDAY...
A STRONG COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST IN THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING
WITH CONVECTION AHEAD AND ALONG IT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND CROSS
OUR REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR
THIS AFTERNOON HAS SHIFTED THE 5 PERCENT FOR WIND POTENTIAL AREA
UNDER SEE TEXT TO OUR SOUTH FROM NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWESTWARD TO
GEORGIA. THERE MAY STILL BE AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF VA INTO NC. USED A BLEND
OF THE HRRR AND RNK WRFARW TO SHAPED POPS FOR THIS MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MORE CHANGES LATER...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY...
MODELS OVERALL IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN QPF AND PLACEMENT
OF HIGHER LEVEL INSTABILITY...BUT NOT THAT BIG AT THIS POINT.
STILL DEALING WITH STRATUS/FOG FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS SOUTH
INTO THE UPPER ROANOKE VALLEY...EAST TO THE VA PIEDMONT. THE 00Z
CMC/NAM SHOW THIS PRETTY WELL AND FOLLOWED THEIR CLOUD COVER
DEPICTION INTO TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS ARE RACING EWD AHEAD OF
CONVECTION THAT IS LINED UP FROM CVG SOUTH THROUGH CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU TN INTO AL.
TODAY...EXPECT THE LOWER CLOUDS TO ERODE BY LATE MORNING BUT GIVE
WAY TO MID/HIGH CLOUDS...SO NOT A LOT OF SUNSHINE TO BE HAD...BUT
JUST ENOUGH TO BOOST TEMPS IN THE EAST TOWARD 80 AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS
IN THE 70S. A FEW SHOWERS EARLY IN THE LYH AREA BEFORE DAWN...WITH
PRE- FRONTAL SHOWERS ARRIVING TOWARD SRN WV INTO FAR SW VA BY LATE
MORNING.
INSTABILITY TODAY WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUD COVER AND
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE WEAK. ON THE OTHER
HAND...DECENT SHEAR MAY LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS AND FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE SW MTNS
OF VA INTO NC...AND MAY SEE SOME STRONGER CONVECTION LATER TODAY IN
THE SOUTHEAST CWA...BUT AT THAT TIME BEST DYNAMICS ARE HEADING NORTH
WITH ANOTHER AREA DEVELOPING EAST OF RALEIGH.
BASED ON THE STORM PREDICTION CENTERS FORECAST WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
SRN WV TO NW NC MTNS FOR GUSTY...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE MAY BE 2-3 BROKEN LINES OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM PIVOTING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. ONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BEST COVERAGE FROM WV SOUTH INTO
THE NC BLUE RIDGE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LESS COVERAGE EAST OF THE DAN
AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE PAINTING ENOUGH LIFT AND QPF TO GO WITH
LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF
LIFT ARRIVES THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONT BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST AND THIS LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS TO THE BLUE
RIDGE AND AND EAST...BEFORE EXITING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AT THIS POINT COLD AIR ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL COMMENCE INTO
THE WV/FAR SW VA MTNS AND EVENTUALLY NW NC. FLOW ALOFT AT 5H
REMAINS SW WITH WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC SO SOME LOW LVL
CONVERGENCE IS THERE...BUT NOT AS FAVORABLE AS A NW FLOW EVENT.
LOOK FOR THE SKIES TO CLEAR LEE OF THE SRN BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT AND
OUT EAST IN THE PIEDMONT TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY....WHILE THE MTNS
REMAINS BKN/OVC. TEMPS ARE TRICKY TONIGHT GIVEN MIXING AND
CLOUDS...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 8H TEMPS STILL FAVOR SOME OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S BY SAT
MORNING...WHILE MOST WILL SEE LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID
40S MOUNTAINS TO MID TO UPPER 50 SOUTHEAST...AS THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS DELAYED UNTIL SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...
BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR
AREA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WESTERN GULF REGION.
WILL START THE DAY OFF WITH A ROUGHLY 6MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO 25MPH TO 30MPH GUSTS DURING THE
MORNING FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...POSSIBLY
STRONGER ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE STRONGEST
DURING THE MORNING...AND WILL GRADUALLY RELAX DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE RIDGELINES FROM SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY IN
OUR FAR WEST...LIMITING HEATING SUCH THAT A FEW LOCATIONS MAY HOLD
IN THE UPPER 40S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. FURTHER EAST HOWEVER...CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP IN THE DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW...ALLOWING FOR
STRONGER HEATING FROM WEST TO EAST. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHSIDE WILL
REACH INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.
EXPECT TO HEAD INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER...
WHICH WILL ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO DROP OFF TO NEAR CALM FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. COOL TEMPERATURES AS THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
PASSING OVERHEAD WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
BRING SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS...
POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 20S IN A FEW SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARMER FURTHER EAST...GENERALLY UPPER 30S/LOW 40S. OF CONCERN WILL
BE THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FROST DEVELOPING IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN SUNDAY...WHICH MAY CAUSE DAMAGE TO TENDER
VEGETATION. FROST WILL BE MORE LIKELY IN AREAS OUT IN THE OPEN...
AWAY FROM TREES WHERE THE LEAF COVER WOULD OFFER SOME PROTECTION
FROM FROST FORMATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BRINGING OUR WIND DIRECTION MORE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. AS SUCH...EXPECT A WARMING TREND FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALSO MEANS THAT FROST APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO PASS
ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...TRIGGERING RAINFALL THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
REGION. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIFFER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOME MODELS BRINGING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE AREA WHILE
OTHERS KEEP HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON WHICHEVER MODEL SOLUTION WINS OUT...BUT IN EITHER
EVENT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE AT LEAST NEAR SEASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT FRIDAY...
FORECAST THIS MORNING SIMILAR TO PAST 3 MORNINGS WITH FOG/LOW
STRATUS BURNING OFF IN THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...THIS TIME
LEFT BEHIND WILL BE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN AHEAD OF
FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY. CONVECTION HAS BEEN WEAKENING THIS
MORNING IN KY BUT STILL EXPECT SCT TO BKN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED TSRA TO ENTER THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY MAKING IT OVER THE
BLUE RIDGE AFTER 18Z.
OVERALL SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS...WITH MARGINAL
THREAT FOR IFR VSBYS.
THE LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP CLEARING AND ENDING PRECIP SO
OVERALL LOOKS LIKE HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON THEN
EXITING THE PIEDMONT EARLY THIS EVENING. WIND FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND AT TIME SOUTHEAST...WITH GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS.
TONIGHT...FLOW TURNS SW THEN WEST WITH UPSLOPE GETTING GOING IN
THE MTNS. SOUNDING FORECASTS SUGGEST MORE DZ AT BLF/LWB THAN -RA.
EXPECT IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
TIMING OF CLEARING IS STILL TRICKY. EARLY SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD
BE CLEARING OUT IN THE PIEDMONT TO ROANOKE/BLACKSBURG BUT UPSLOPE
MVFR CIGS AT BLF/LWB MAY OCCUR INTO SAT AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZY NW
WINDS.
WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN VFR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A FRONT
CLOSES IN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING. RAIN
CHANCES LOOK SMALL MONDAY NOW AS MAIN WAVE STAYS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. MAY SEE A BETTER THREAT OF SHOWERS TUESDAY WITH
MODERATE THREAT OF SUB VFR INTO THE MTNS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
922 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RAIN SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES THAT HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA/EASTERN MINNESOTA. AS OF
9AM...THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS CURL SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA DOWN THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES AND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER NEAR LA CROSSE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN FAIRLY LOW ON THE
RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES LOCALLY...BUT SOME STRONGER FORCING TO THE
NORTHWEST SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MID
LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF AND PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST. BECAUSE OF
THIS...HAVE ADDED THE RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THOUGH
MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH ON THE POPS GIVEN THE COVERAGE. THERMALLY
IT LOOKS WARM ENOUGH BASED ON RAP SOUNDINGS TO STAY AS ALL RAIN
UNTIL LATER ON TONIGHT WHEN THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN THAT IT COULD
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. WILL LET ALL OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE COME IN
BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH THE WINDS TODAY AND THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH ACROSS
WISCONSIN. LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING SHOWERS OCCURRING
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO
EASTERN IOWA AND THESE WERE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
BY 12Z...EXPECTING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT
TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BUT WILL HOLD ONTO A SMALL RAIN CHANCE
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS JUST TO MAKE SURE THEY ARE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA.
AFTER THAT...THE CONCERN FOR TODAY IS WITH THE WINDS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA...THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME TIGHT
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW. AT THE SAME
TIME...A TROPOPAUSE FOLD WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE
03.00Z NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THIS WILL NOT BE AN OVERLY STRONG TROP
FOLD AND SHOULD ONLY GET DOWN TO ABOUT 350 MB OR SO. THE REGION
WILL BE ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF BOTH THE 500 AND 300 MB JET WHICH
WILL HELP TO CREATE SOME ADDITIONAL SUBSIDENCE. THE BEST 3 HOUR
PRESSURE RISES WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AS WILL THE BEST
850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. WITH 850 MB WINDS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A WINDY DAY BUT
WITH SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. IN THE WIND PRONE
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...SHOULD SEE
SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35
KNOTS. THE WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL COME DOWN SOME AFTER
SUNSET...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT REALLY SHOW A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION DEVELOPING...SO EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.
THE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING
OVER MINNESOTA. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN TONIGHT WITH SOME WEAK TO MODERATE QG
CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE 850-300 MB LAYER. THERE
SHOULD ALSO BE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE 285K
ISENTROPIC SURFACE AS THIS LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION UNDERNEATH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH ALL THE MODELS SHOWING THIS SLIDING
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. HAVE MAINTAINED THE 80
PERCENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BUT SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING SOME.
NOT REALLY EXPECTING THIS TO START MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING AND
THEN MAINLY AFFECTING LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SNOW TONIGHT AS THERE WILL BE ICE IN THE
CLOUDS AND THE ENTIRE SOUNDING BELOW ZERO EXCEPT FOR THE LOWEST
LEVELS. AS THESE LOW LEVELS COOL...SNOW SHOULD MIX IN WITH THE
RAIN AND IN SOME PLACES IT COULD COMPLETELY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
FOR AWHILE...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE RATES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER. THIS
COULD PRODUCE A FEW TENTHS OF ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY SURFACE...BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING OVER A HALF INCH.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES PAST THE AREA...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVING BY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S
TODAY AND UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SATURDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S AND A FREEZE WARNING AND/OR FROST ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE COUNTRY. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW INITIALLY SOUTH OF HUDSONS BAY IS EXPECT TO RETROGRADE SOME
EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE STARTING TO MOVE EAST AGAIN BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. CURRENT INDICATIONS BY THE MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL COME
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO MODERATE MUCH WITH MAINLY 50S
UNTIL POSSIBLY ABOUT THURSDAY WHEN SOME 60S COULD RETURN TO THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
CIGS WERE RISING INTO MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING AS INCREASING
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE LOW BRING IN DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR.
STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH MECHANICAL MIXING TO ABOUT
875MB EXPECTED TO ALLOW CIGS TO RISE INTO THE 3K-4K FT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS ON TOP THIS MIXED LAYER IN THE 30-35KT
RANGE TODAY WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCING 15-25KT WINDS. A
BLUSTERY/WINDY LATE MORNING AFTERNOON EXPECTED WITH THESE NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING 28-32KTS. WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT REMAIN NORTHWEST AROUND 15KTS TONIGHT.
NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH A ROUND OF LIFT
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE 925-700MB LAYER. CIGS LOWER INTO MVFR
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME PRECIP TO MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES
AFTER 09Z. LEFT THIS RATHER GENERAL FOR NOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE COLUMN TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME WET SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN LATE
TONIGHT...MORE-SO AT THE RIDGE-TOP/HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS VS.
THE RIVER VALLEYS. HOWEVER DID INCLUDE A -RASN MENTION AT BOTH KRST
AND KLSE. IF PRECIP RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH...MORE ALONG/EAST OF THE
MS RIVER...ANY -RA MAY CHANGE OVER TO ALL -SN AS THE PRECIP DRAGS
COLDER AIR TOWARD THE SFC AND COOLS THE COLUMN. IF THIS OCCURS VSBYS
AFTER 09Z IN THIS WOULD BE MORE IN THE 1-3SM RANGE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
309 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...
...TURNING NOTICEABLY DRIER AND COOLER SAT NIGHT WITH UNFAVORABLE
BOATING CONDITIONS...
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...POPCORN SHOWERS HAD FORMED ORLANDO SOUTHWARD
TO OKEECHOBEE AT MID AFTERNOON. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WAS SET
UP FROM CANAVERAL TO THE TREASURE COAST. THEREFORE THE MAIN CHANCE
FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE FROM THE SPACE AND TREASURE COAST TO
OKEECHOBEE INTO EARLY EVENING. LOCAL WRF AND HRRR DO NOT SHOW
MUCH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH.
BAND OF PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION IS PROGGED TO REACH NORTHERN AREAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BY THESE MODELS AND INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS TOWARDS
SUNRISE. THE GFS SHOWS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO THE
SOUTHWEST/WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO CONVERGENCE LOOKS WEAK.
HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT INSTABILITY
FOR STORMS WILL BE MARGINAL. MOS POPS ARE NEAR 50 PERCENT IN THE
FAR NORTH AND 40 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...SHOWING 40 PERCENT IN THE NORTH HALF AND 30
PERCENT IN THE SOUTH.
SAT-SAT NIGHT...A MUCH DRIER AND NOTICEABLE COOLER AIR MASS WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND
FIRST SUBSTANTIAL COOL FRONT OF THE SEASON TO CROSS THE REGION.
BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG
THIS WEAKLY CONVERGENT BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST FROM FROM ORLANDO NORTHWARD
IN THE MORNING TRANSITIONING TO THE FAR SOUTH MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
WITH FRONT ALREADY MOVING INTO THE AREA BY MORNING AND LARGE SCALE
FORCING REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
MOS POPS DECREASED TO 10 PERCENT NORTH AND WERE AROUND 40 PERCENT
IN THE SOUTH. COMPROMISED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HAVE 30 POPS
NORTH AND 50 FAR SOUTH.
N/NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LATEST MOS INDICATES TEMPS BELOW
60 FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS FALL FROM ORLANDO TO LEESBURG AND
DAYTONA BEACH...THEN NEAR 60 TO MELBOURNE AND MID 60S AT STUART.
(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)
SUN-SUN NIGHT...SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL
WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AND NORTH WINDS AROUND 10
MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S MAINLY NORTHWEST OF
ORLANDO METRO AREA WITH LOW TO MID 60S FARTHER SOUTH.
MON-THU...FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE FL STRAITS AND BAHAMAS
MONDAY...GRADUALLY WEAKENING. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS OVER THE REGION
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATING AND RAIN CHANCES
SLOWLY INCREASING. MONDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH POPS THEN RISING
INTO THE 20/30 PERCENT RANGE TUE-THU. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
MON/TUE WILL INCREASE TO THE MID/UPPER 80S WED/THU.
&&
.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE SPREADING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
PENINSULA MAINLY KORL SOUTHWARD TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WITH EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE SET UP NEAR THE COAST...THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
SHOULD BE FROM KTIX-KMLB-KVRB-KFPR-KSUA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
SOME FRONTAL BAND CLOUDS/SHOWERS OVERNIGHT SHOULD PRODUCE MVFR
ESPECIALLY KISM-KMCO-KTIX NORTHWARD...THEN TRANSITIONING SOUTHWARD
SAT MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...CHANCE FOR STORMS OVER LAND TO PUSH OFFSHORE THE EAST
COAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH HIGHEST CHANCE FROM ABOUT
CANAVERAL SOUTH. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW AND WEST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS.
THIS SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO 3-4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE NORTH OF THE
CAPE.
SAT-TUE...FIRST SUBSTANTIAL COOL FRONT OF THE SEASON WILL CROSS THE
WATERS SAT WITH N/NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT POSSIBLY INCREASING UP
TO 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE OF THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTY COASTLINE
THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THIS INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS MAY BUILD SEAS
UP TO 6 FEET OFFSHORE INTO SUN. PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN RELAXES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE ONSHORE AND SEAS EXPECTED TO
BE 4 FEET OR LESS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
LAST TIME TEMPS WERE BELOW 60 DEGREES...
DAB...MAY 18 (57)
MCO...APR 22 (57)
MLB...MAY 17 (59)
VRB...MAY 22 (59)
FPR...MAY 22 (57)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 74 85 59 76 / 40 30 0 0
MCO 74 87 59 79 / 40 30 0 0
MLB 76 85 63 78 / 40 40 10 0
VRB 74 88 64 80 / 30 50 20 10
LEE 75 86 57 78 / 40 30 0 0
SFB 75 87 59 78 / 40 30 0 0
ORL 75 86 61 79 / 40 30 0 0
FPR 73 89 65 80 / 30 50 20 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WEATHER....ULRICH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
130 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.AVIATION...
SEA BREEZES HAVE REACHED KPBI...KFLL...AND KAPF...AND SHOULD REACH
REMAINING TERMINALS BY 20Z AT LATEST. EXPECT ONSHORE WINDS BELOW
10 KTS THROUGH MID-EVENING...THEN BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...LIKE YESTERDAY...APPEARS TO BE DELAYED SO
HAVE HEDGED BACK VCTS GROUP UNTIL 19Z. EVEN THIS START TIME MAY BE
TOO SOON. WITH ONLY SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED...DIDN`T ADD TEMPO
GROUPS...BUT ONE OR MORE MAY BE NEEDED LATER...ESPECIALLY AT
MIAMI-DADE TERMINALS. ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER
SUNSET...THEN DIMINISH.
FOR SATURDAY...WEST WINDS INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE
MORNING. VCSH INTRODUCED AT KAPF AT 14Z...ELSEWHERE ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY NOT START UNTIL AFTER 18Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014/
UPDATE...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS ON TRACK WITH EARLIER
THINKING AND DO NOT PLAN TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES IN THE MORNING
UPDATES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEPENING MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SOUTH FLORIDA`S FIRST EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH, THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WESTERLY STEERING FLOW. THIS
ALONG WITH ABUNDANT DIURNAL HEATING TAKING PLACE WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR ALLUDES TO THIS THINKING WITH
CONVECTION GETTING STARTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AROUND 19-20Z AND
THEN MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST COAST METRO AREA THROUGH 00Z. THIS
WAS VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY`S PATTERN AND SEE NO REASON TO GO
AGAINST PERSISTENCE.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014/
DISCUSSION...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL STATES
WILL AMPLIFY WHILE DIGGING SOUTHEAST AND THIS WILL SEND THE FIRST
COLD FRONT OF THIS FALL SEASON ACROSS SOUTH FL SATURDAY NIGHT.
GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS SCENARIO PLAYING OUT. THE 03.00Z ECMWF
IS DELAYED, BUT THE 12Z RUN CONTINUED WITH THIS SCENARIO...SO THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS REMAINS UNCHANGED.
FOR TODAY, TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THEN AS THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS
DUE TO A LIGHTER WIND FLOW REGIME, SCATTERED TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP. HIGH RES MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A TENDENCY FOR ACTIVITY
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF SEA BREEZE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...THEN
THE FLOW PATTERN SUGGESTS A TENDENCY OF MOVEMENT/ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST OVER THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST, ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN SUBURBS.
FOR TONIGHT, ACTIVITY WILL WANE DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER,
MODELS SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THIS
COULD IMPACT THE GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT SO REFLECTED THIS IN THE
FORECAST WITH INCREASING POPS THERE OVERNIGHT.
SOUTH FL WILL LIE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. PARAMETERS DO NOT
SUGGEST ANYTHING BUT ORDINARY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN RISK
BEING LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FL SATURDAY NIGHT,
DRYING SOUTH FL OUT BOTH FROM A RAIN PERSPECTIVE AND A HUMIDITY
PERSPECTIVE. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO THE LOWER TO MID
60S SOUTHERN AREAS TO POSSIBLY THE 50S ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAKING FOR A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE
IN AIRMASS. 12Z ECMWF DID NOT GO QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
LOWERING DEWPOINTS, BUT STILL UNDER 70F. THE MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY,
ALONG WITH TEMPS SOME 5-10F DEGREES COOLER, WILL SIGNAL THAT DRY
SEASON CAN`T BE TOO FAR AWAY. HOWEVER, THIS LOWER HUMIDITY LOOKS
TO ONLY LAST THROUGH MONDAY AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP AND THE
TROPICAL HUMIDITY RETURNS DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS AS THE
DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. /GREGORIA
MARINE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE, BUT AS WINDS
PICK UP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT AND TURN NORTHERLY
BEHIND IT, SEAS WILL BUILD ESPECIALLY OFF THE PALM BEACH COAST.
HOWEVER, RIGHT NOW ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OR SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
/GREGORIA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 87 71 83 / 20 60 30 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 87 73 84 / 20 50 30 10
MIAMI 76 87 73 85 / 20 50 20 10
NAPLES 78 86 69 83 / 30 50 20 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...23/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1140 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS FELL SINCE YESTERDAY FROM ABOUT INTERSTATE 80 ON TO
THE SOUTH WHERE AMOUNTS WERE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER THIS MORNING. SEVERAL
LOCATIONS GETTING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON...DUE TO TIGHT GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
LOW PRESSURE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...THE WINDS SHOULD STAY
BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. BUT DID ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT TO COVER THIS SITUATION. EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOUT STEADY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S...MAKING FOR A VERY CHILLY DAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE EXTREME EASTERN AREAS BY 7 AM. THUS
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH MID MORNING WITH WINDS ON THE
INCREASE. THE NEXT RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN IOWA. IF CURRENT RAP TRENDS ARE CORRECT...
THIS PRECIPITATION WOULD REACH THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS AROUND MID
DAY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS THE MAIN LOW IN UPPER MICHIGAN WITH A WEAK
LOW BETWEEN KPIA AND KSPI. THE FIRST FRONT RAN FROM THE MAIN LOW
TO JUST EAST OF KUNO IN MISSOURI WITH A WEAK TROF BEHIND THE FRONT
IN EASTERN IOWA. THE MAIN COLD FRONT RAN FROM KDLH TO NEAR KLAA IN
COLORADO. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 60S AND 70S AHEAD OF THE FIRST
COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY 40S AND 50S AHEAD OF THE SECOND FRONT. DEW
POINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S WERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
THE RAIN SHIELD IS MAKING GOOD PROGRESS EASTWARD AND SHOULD BE
ALONG/EAST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KFEE TO KPIA BY SUNRISE. RAIN WILL
LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE FAR EAST AFTER SUNRISE. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SUNRISE AND DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...BUT NEW DIURNAL LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AS THE COLD AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NEBRASKA LOOKS TO
BRUSH THE FAR SOUTH FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE BIG STORY IS THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AND THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRATOSPHERIC
INTRUSION OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR MOVING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. THUS WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING THE MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST
GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRATOSPHERIC INTRUSION. INTERESTINGLY...
TRENDS WITH THE PRESSURE FALLS WOULD SUPPORT THE STRONGEST WINDS
BEING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A LITTLE OFF THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.
HOWEVER...ONCE THE SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DO A SLOW FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE CLOUDS.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WRAP AROUND CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS. THE RAIN FALLING IN THE DRY
ATMOSPHERE WILL COOL THE COLUMN WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOPING IN
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS FOR AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30.
ANY SNOW THAT DOES OCCUR LATE TONIGHT WILL MELT ON CONTACT WITH THE
VERY WARM GROUND.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS PROGGED TO
LIFT INTO ONTARIO AND PHASE WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY RESULTING IN
DEEPENING UPPER LOW MEANDERING ABOUT THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN NORTHWEST
FLOW... WHICH WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF PCPN MAINLY IN THE AM ACROSS
NORTHEAST 1/3-1/2 WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. FAVORABLE THERMAL PARAMETERS NORTH (850 TEMPS -3 TO -4C AND
925 TEMPS AROUND 0 TO -1C) WITH WBZ AROUND 1500 FT AGL SUGGEST POTENTIAL
FOR SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN WITH ANY LIGHT RAIN... MOSTLY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST IA AND NORTHWEST IL AROUND SUNRISE AND
SHORTLY THEREAFTER BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN THEN ENDING GENERALLY
PRIOR TO MIDDAY. BLUSTERY AND COOL WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL AND
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT... CHILLY LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S ANTICIPATED WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT. CHALLENGE WILL BE AMOUNT
OF MID CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT W/SW WINDS AND IMPACT ON TEMPS AND ALSO FROST
POTENTIAL. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT FROST MENTION PATCHY ATTIM AND NORTH OF I-80.
SUNDAY-THURSDAY... CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATING. PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWER CHANCES AS IMPULSES SHUTTLED DOWN ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW... WITH CONSENSUS FOCUSING ON MONDAY AND LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS MAIN PCPN WINDOWS BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW THIS
FAR OUT. LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK SOME INDICATION THAT FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO SEMI-ZONAL WHICH WILL BRING ABOUT SOME MODERATION ON TEMPS
CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
VFR/BRIEFLY MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THEN VFR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...HAASE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1228 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
One band of clouds will try to clear the eastern end of the
forecast area early this afternoon, just as another area enters
the west. The previously solid band of rain over western Missouri
appears to be drying up and model soundings from our region do not
show much instability, for storms, but perhaps there will be just
enough lift with the attendant mid/upper level impulse to produce
some showers/rain as it swings through the area generally through
00Z. The latest HRRR and the 12Z Hi-Res WRF runs do not develop
much precipitation in our region at all. Will keep the small
chance PoPs going for now, and will adjust as necessary based on
radar trends this afternoon.
The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
Short wave seen moving NE across MO into IL, with surface cold
front still to our west. Area of convection is through the region,
with only left over showers. Overall a minor event as expected
with a mostly below svr wind gusts (marginal hail). A few gusts in
west KY around svr thresholds coincident with the correctly
forecast increase in h8 winds around 06z. About it. Rest of today,
focus will turn toward a secondary lobe, that will reach east
MO/west IL by 21z and quickly move east through the early evening.
We added thunder back for this afternoon given mid level lapse
rates around 7, lowering freezing levels to 6.5-8k/ft, and
sfc/blyr li`s falling to near or just below zero. Could be very
small hail as well. After that, dry 03z on. Rather cool Saturday,
and Saturday night. Despite some lows forecast in the upper 30s
Saturday night, wind and lower RH`s should preclude patchy frost.
Sunday, temps moderate.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
Much of the long term will be influenced by an upper level low
centered over Ontario Province in southern Canada. South of this
low, a broad upper level trough will envelope a large part of the
central and eastern U.S.
Mainly dry conditions will result. However, a few impulses of energy
rotating around the low and through the base of the trough are
forecast to bring an increase in clouds and at least a small chance
for precipitation early next week. Models - in particular the GFS -
are still not in the best agreement, so overall confidence remains
relatively low. However, the greatest precipitation potential still
appears to be centered on a window from Sunday night into Monday
night.
Temperatures during this time will remain below normal. Highs Sunday
and Monday will range through the lower 70s, with lows in the upper
40s to lower 50s. A warming trend will occur by mid week as the
trough shifts east and allows a ridge to build in its place. Highs
by Wednesday and Thursday are forecast in the mid to upper 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
MVFR ceilings should be exiting the KEVV and KOWB shortly, but
sratocumulus development will likely keep a lower VFR ceiling over
those areas through the afternoon. As a mid/upper-level impulse
dives southeast toward the area, a large area of lower VFR clouds
will quickly overspread the entire area through the afternoon.
Latest trends on radar and in guidance are drier across the area
late this afternoon. Decided to insert a TEMPO at all sites for
2 hours of a VFR shower, just to hint at the potential, but
significant impacts are not expected. A few cu may linger over the
northeast tonight, but otherwise clear skies are expected tonight
and Saturday morning.
Gusty west northwest winds are expected to continue through the
afternoon and into the early evening in most locations. They will
eventually die down a bit, but they will return with mixing by
mid-morning Saturday.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...Noles
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
358 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
THE SFC LOW THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT IS NOW AT 984MB BETWEEN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND JAMES BAY. ALOFT...THE UPPER LOW IS LOCATED NEAR
DLH...WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER THE SFC LOW TO THE NE.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL CLOSE OFF N OF LAKE SUPERIOR /BECOMING THE
DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL LOW/ TONIGHT INTO SAT AS THE CURRENT UPPER LOW
MOVES S OF THE CWA BEFORE WEAKENING INTO A TROUGH SAT. THE FIRST SFC
FRONT IS ALREADY THROUGH THE CWA...WITH THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT
JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR. MAIN AREA OF PRECIP IS JUST W OF THE CWA
UNDER THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING IN THE W-WNW FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN PRECIP COVERAGE UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT THIS EVENING...WITH PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SSE
THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE
PRECIP WILL INCREASE IN THE NNW-NW FLOW WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO
-4C TO -6C LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT. TYPICAL HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS OF NWRN UPPER MI MAY SEE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...OR A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. NO ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE A
DUSTING ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN FALLING OVER THE WRN CWA AS COLD AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE AREA CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE COLDEST TEMPS TONIGHT ACROSS GOGEBIC COUNTY WITH MIN TEMPS NEAR
FREEZING. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT LOWS NEAR OR BELOW 40F. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NWRN
UPPER MI...AND IN THE MID 40S OVER ERN UPPER MI AND NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN.
DECREASED WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR A LITTLE THIS EVENING...BUT MORE
SUBSTANTIALLY TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SINCE THE CWA WILL BE
BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LOWS...THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAD TO
CUT SOME OF THE GALES OFF EARLIER.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
CLOUDY...COOL...AND PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH/LOW ROTATES OVER
ONTARIO. THAT UPPER TROUGH IS THE SAME ONE THAT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL ROTATE NORTH AND CLOSE OFF OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO. THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH
SOME SLIGHT WOBBLING...THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND KEEP
COOL/MOIST AIR STREAMING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
WITH ONE OF THE MAIN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE AREA TO COME UNDER WEAK
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WHICH WILL HELP LEAD TO DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS
AND STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION AROUND 5-6KFT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOME PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA DURING THE EVENING (ESPECIALLY KEWEENAW
AND NORTH CENTRAL/EAST) AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. WITH WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR TEMPS AROUND 10C AND 850MB TEMPS OF -4C...WOULD EXPECT
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS AND TRANSITIONING TO
LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL START OUT AT NORTHWEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN GRADUALLY BACK TO THE WEST BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE
INVERSION IN PLACE AROUND 5KFT...DON/T EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION
WITH THE LAKE EFFECT TO BE TOO STRONG...ESPECIALLY WITH A NEAR
SURFACE MIXED LAYER KEEPING CLOUD DEPTH IN THE 3-4.5KFT RANGE. LIKE
THE PREVIOUS SHIFT/S IDEA FOR POPS WITH LIKELY VALUES OVER THE
NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED AREAS FOR SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WHILE TRANSITIONING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS PRETTY
TRICKY DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO SEVERAL OVERLAPPING FEATURES.
INITIALLY SATURDAY EVENING...EXPECT SNOW TO BE FALLING ALOFT AS
MUCH OF THE CLOUD IS WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH AREA AND THEN
ENCOUNTERING A WARM LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS WARM LAYER AND
WETBULB0 HEIGHTS WILL CONTROL RAIN/SNOW POTENTIAL. THE LOWEST
VALUES WILL OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
CWA (WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALLING NEAR THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT)...BUT
THAT IS ALSO WHEN THE WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND
WEST-SOUTHWEST. THUS...WOULD EXPECT THE LOWEST POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION TO BE WHERE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW WILL BE.
THEREFORE...ONLY THINK THERE WILL BE PATCHY AREAS OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT. WHERE THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY NIGHT (OVER THE KEWEENAW)...THINK
THE FLOW OFF THE 48-50 DEGREE LAKE SUPERIOR WATER WILL HELP KEEP THE
LOWER LEVELS WARMER AND KEEP THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY RAIN. THAT
IDEA MATCHES THE WETBULB0 HEIGHTS OVER THE KEWEENAW...WITH ONLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING SOME SNOW MIXING IN.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY...DIURNAL HEATING WILL TRANSITION ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS TO ALL RAIN.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE MORE OF THE SAME...WITH THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOKS TO DECREASE FURTHER AND WILL LIKELY LIMIT LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL EVEN WITH 850MB TEMPS STILL AROUND -2C. THE MOST
DIFFICULT PART WITH THIS PERIOD AND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
TIMING ANY WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH ALONG WITH THE MUCH STRONG
WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA WITH POPS...RAMPING
THEM UP MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEPART TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE
TO FOLLOW WETBULB0 HEIGHTS FOR RAIN/SNOW POTENTIAL...WHICH LEADS TO
SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT (GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE DIURNAL CYCLE).
AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST...SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION TO
MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA AND PUSHING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. MODELS INDICATING A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN SOLUTIONS DIVERGE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT FOR
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER COOL DOWN APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
PRIMARILY USED HRRR AND NAM MODELS FOR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH
CIGS REDUCING TO IFR/LIFR AS MOIST AIR RIDES UP THE TERRAIN OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR. DO EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS /POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW AT CMX
AND IWD/...BUT INTENSITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES
SIGNIFICANTLY. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS SATURDAY MORNING AS
LOW LEVEL MIXING OCCURS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN WINDS OVER ZONE OF STRONGER WEST WINDS IN
THE VCNTY OF KEWEENAW AND STANNARD ROCK AND DOWNSTREAM OVER PORTIONS
OF CNTRL AND LAKE SUPERIOR. WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...SO HAVE SHORTENED THE GALE
WARNINGS. WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
DECREASING WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. BEST CHANCE OF 35-40
KTS WOULD BE FM NCNTRL LK SUPERIOR TOWARD STANNARD ROCK AND OFFSHORE
OF MUNISING. HOWEVER...NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS WILL PERSIST
INTO SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING TOWARD UPPER LAKES ON TUESDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ265-266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
203 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
996MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR MARQUETTE THIS MORNING WITH COLD
FRONT WORKING ACROSS EASTERN MARQUETTE INTO NORTHERN MENOMINEE
COUNTY PER SFC OBS AND 0.5 VELOCITY LOOP ON MQT RADAR. INITIAL
SURGE OF HEAVY RAIN LIFTED OVER CWA LATE LAST EVENING. ADDITIONAL
AREA OF RAIN WITH SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ON THE COOL SIDE OF
DEEPENING SFC LOW IS MAINLY AFFECTING WESTERN CWA WHILE SHOWERS
WITH HEAVIER EMBEEDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE OVER MAINLY FAR
EASTERN CWA. IN BTWN...SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN LAST
COUPLE HOURS OVER SCNTRL CWA VCNTY OF KESC. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP
SHOWS ANOTHER BATCH OF WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND
NORTHERN ILLIONIS TIED TO FORCING FM SHORTWAVE CROSSING ILLINOIS IS
POISED TO LIFT ACROSS MAINLY EAST HALF OF CWA THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...IT WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT OVER THE WEST AS NEXT BATCH OF
FORCING STAYS TO THE EAST AND LIFT FM STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHING OVER
WESTERN MINNESOTA WILL NOT ARRIVE OVER WESTERN CWA UNTIL THIS AFTN.
DESPITE THE LULL IN RAIN OVER THE WEST...CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER
MINNESOTA WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO COOL
INTO THE 40S IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS OVER CNTRL UPR
MICHIGAN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH ANOTHER FEW HOURS WITH TEMPS IN
THE 60S ARE EXPECTED FOR EASTERN CWA.
BY AFTERNOON...SHORTWAVE OVER MINNESOTA WILL MOVE TO WISCONSIN BUT
IS WILL SLOW UP AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN TRIES TO CATCH UP WITH THE LEAD WAVE. RESULT WILL BE
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE INTRODUCTION OF HIGHER POPS OVER WESTERN CWA
THIS AFTN. AT THE SFC...LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN TO AROUND 985MB
WHILE MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST OF LK SUPERIOR. AS THIS OCCURS...ZONE
OF STRONGER WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTN MAINLY
FROM WESTERN LK SUPERIOR ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR. SOUNDINGS WITHIN THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE
NOT ALL THAT UNSTABLE BUT STILL POINT TO SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS
OF 25-35MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE SHALLOW MIXED LAYER OVER 40 MPH FOR
AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
KEWEENAW. PRIME TIME FOR STRONGEST WINDS APPEARS TO BE 20Z-24Z OR
4 PM TO 8 PM ET. ELSEWHERE ACROSS CWA...PEAK WIND GUSTS SHOULD STAY
IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE.
THE STRONG WEST WINDS COULD RESULT IN WAVES BUILDING TOWARD 10 FEET
ON THE WEST SHORE OF THE KEWEENAW WHICH COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER THAN
NORMAL WATER LEVELS ON LK SUPERIOR MAY RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
BEACH EROSION. HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
BASED ON LOCAL GUIDANCE...WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY KIND OF LAKESHORE
FLOOD ADVISORY SINCE WAVES WOULD BE MORE TOWARD 10 FEET INSTEAD OF
PUSHING INTO THE 15 TO 20 FEET RANGE.
FOR TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND THE SASKATCHEWAN SHORTWAVE
AFFECTS MAINLY WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN WITH INCREASING H7-H5 Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND H8-H7 RH. LARGE SCALE FORCING COMBINES WITH NW
1000-850MB WINDS AND H85 TEMPS COOLING TO -3C TO RESULT IN
SUFFICIENT SETUP FOR LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION AS LK SUPERIOR
WATER TEMPS ARE ANYWHERE FM +7C TO +11C OVER THE OPEN WATERS AND
AROUND +14 TO +16C IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
MAXIMIZED IN THE EVENING OVER WESTERN CWA SO HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS
FOR UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WEST. EVENTUALLY THOUGH...SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WORKS SOUTH ACROSS LK SUPERIOR SWITCHING WINDS FM WEST TO
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THIS ALONG WITH THE OVER-WATER INSTABILITY
SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS ALONG MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO TUMBLE AND SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE MIDDLE 30S
OVER FAR WEST TO LOWER 40S CLOSE TO LK SUPERIOR. SOUNDINGS OVER
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN SHOW ENOUGH COOLING IN LOWEST 5KFT TO RESULT IN
AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. KEPT RAIN AS PRIMARY PTYPE ATTM...BUT
DID INCLUDE MIX OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN
PUSHING TOWARD NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN VERY LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH RISK
IS NOT AS HIGH THERE SINCE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER CHANCE OF ICE
CRYSTALS BEING INTRODUCED FM ALOFT STAYS MAINLY OVER WI INTO WESTERN
UPR MICHIGAN. SFC TEMPS STAYING ABOVE 35F AND LACK OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIPITATION GREATLY WILL LIMIT SNOW ACCUMS EVEN ON GRASS OR
ELEVATED OBJECTS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
SAT...THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT WITH THE DIVIDED MID LEVEL LOW
AND TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY WOBBLING TO THE EAST BRINGING AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR MAINLY THROUGH WEST AND SOUTH
UPPER MI. THIS FORCING WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF LIGHT PCPN THROUGH
THE CWA DURING THE MORNING. IN ADDITION...CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW
WITH DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -4C WILL
ALSO PRODUCE LAKE ENHANCED PCPN FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY NW WINDS.
1000-850 THICKNESS VALUES NEAR 1310M AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
AROUND 2500 FT OVER THE WEST COULD ALLOW SOME SNOW TO MIX IN OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
SAT NIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PIVOTS OVER NRN ONTARIO AND THE
CNTRL LAKES WITH THE QVECTOR CONV WEAKENING...BACKING LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL SHIFT THE HEAVIER LAKE ENHANCED PCPN INTO TO AREAS
FAVORED BY WNW TO W WINDS SUCH AS THE KEWEENAW AND LOCATIONS FROM
MUNISING EASTWARD. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL COOLING WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR A MIX OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NW.
SUN...WEAK SHRTWVS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL LOW LINGERING OVER NRN ONTARIO...WEST OF
JAMES BAY. WITH 850 MB TEMPS ALSO REMAINING NEAR -3C...SOME LAKE
ENHANCED PCPN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE KEWEENAW AND THE FAR NE CWA
THAT ARE FAVORED BY W WINDS.
MON-THU...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS THE PERSISTENT MID LEVEL LOW
AGAIN WOBBLES BACKING TOWARD THE NRN LAKES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN FROM MON NIGHT INTO TUE. ENOUGH
COLD AIR WILL ALSO BE DRAWN INTO THE AREA FOR A MIX WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW AGAIN OVER THE WEST. THE PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
TOWARD ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE NRN CONUS. SO...DRIER WEATHER WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND SHOULD TAKE OVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
PRIMARILY USED HRRR AND NAM MODELS FOR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH
CIGS REDUCING TO IFR/LIFR AS MOIST AIR RIDES UP THE TERRAIN OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR. DO EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS /POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW AT CMX
AND IWD/...BUT INTENSITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES
SIGNIFICANTLY. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS SATURDAY MORNING AS
LOW LEVEL MIXING OCCURS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
WINDS VARIABLE LESS THAN 20 KTS OVER THE LAKE TO START THE DAY WITH
SFC LOW OVERHEAD...BUT ONCE THE LOW REACHES NORTHEAST SHORE OF LK
SUPERIOR THIS AFTN...EXPECT INCREASING WEST WINDS OVER SOUTH HALF OF
LK SUPERIOR. APPEARS THAT ZONE OF STRONGER WEST WINDS WITH WINDS TO
GALES WILL DEVELOP MAINLY IN THE VCNTY OF KEWEENAW AND STANNARD ROCK
AND DOWNTREAM OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR.
SHIPPING LANE OVER EAST LK SUPERIOR WOULD BE AFFECTED. HAVE ISSUED
GALE WARNINGS OVER CNTRL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF LK SUPERIOR...FIRST
FOR THESE STRONG WEST WINDS THEN FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ONLY LOW-END GALES LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
THOUGH. BEST CHANCE OF 35-40 KTS WOULD BE FM NCNTRL LK SUPERIOR
TOWARD STANNARD ROCK AND OFFSHORE OF MUNISING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BLO GALES SATURDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS WILL
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING TOWARD UPPER LAKES ON TUESDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ264>266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
142 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MICHIGAN TODAY WILL USHER IN VERY
FALL LIKE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. COLD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S... FOLLOWED BY LOWER 50S FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NEXT WEEK AND RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES IN THE LOWER 60S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
DECIDED TO GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES.
MUSKEGON GLERL SHOWED GUSTS OF 45 KNOTS WITH THE MOST RECENT
OBSERVATION...CLOSE TO WHAT THE FSL RUC WAS SHOWING. THIS MODEL
SHOWS SUCH WINDS PUSHING INLAND FOR THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES. I
SUSPECT THE MODEL MAY BE HIGH...BUT WITH LEAVES ON THE TREES AND
THE LIKELIHOOD OF GREATER THAN 45 MPH WINDS OVER THE LAND...WE
SHOULD SEE SOME POWER OUTAGES. THIS LOOKS TO BE A SHORT DURATION
EVENT...MAINLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...BUT THE ADVISORY CRITERIA ONLY FOR THIS
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
THE MAIN ISSUE THIS MORNING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AS HEAVY SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC
COLD FRONT. DUAL POL RADAR PRECIP ESTIMATES INDICATE SWATHS OF
HEAVIER RAIN IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED... AND EVEN
A SWATH OF GREATER THAN TWO INCHES BETWEEN AZO AND BTL. SHOULD HEAVY
SHOWERS REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREAS... WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE FLOOD
ADVISORIES FOR A FEW COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TODAY WITH PRECIP
RATES DECREASING CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SFC COLD
FRONT. ALSO FALLING TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LOW/COLD POOL TO IMPACT THE AREA MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT/CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
ISOLATED TSTMS AS LAKE INSTABILITY RESULTS IN A FEW HUNDRED JOULES
OF CAPE.
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS MODELS SHOW LESS MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE LESS COVERAGE/PERSISTENCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR AWAY FROM THE W/SW FLOW LAKE INFLUENCE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER
LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA TODAY WILL HOLD IN PLACE LIKELY THROUGH TUE
OF NEXT WEEK. WE WILL SEE THE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS BE REPLACED BY
INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND SOME LAKE EFFECT FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE
OF NEXT WEEK. SHORT WAVES RIDING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW WILL
BRING THESE INTERVALS OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. WE WILL SEE BREAKS IN
THE SHOWERS...SO IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME. THE COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH NEXT TUE NIGHT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WITH DRIER CONDITIONS WITH MORE SUNSHINE
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. THE UPPER LOW WILL
FINALLY MOVE OUT BY TUE NIGHT AS A STRONG ENOUGH WAVE MOVING AROUND
IT WILL HELP TO LIFT IT TO THE NE. WE WILL SEE UPPER RIDGING BUILD
IN PLACE AS THE STRONG LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA AND ANOTHER STRONG
LOW MOVES OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. WE WILL SEE A SOLID
SRLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVECT WARMER AIR IN ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO AROUND 70 BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
IMPACTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL
LARGELY REMAIN MVFR AS THE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION PERSIST. BRIEF IFR MAY ALSO OCCUR...BUT THE DURATION
IS NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SHOWS 40-45 KT NW WINDS AT 925 MB IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT THIS MORNING... SO WILL RUN WITH A GALE
WARNING WITH THE MORNING ISSUANCE OF THE NEARSHORE FORECAST. THE
WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS WEST WINDS CONTINUE
TO OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 35 KTS.
WATERSPOUTS A GOOD POSSIBILITY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT PER THE
WADE SZILAGYI /MET SVCS OF CANADA/ NOMOGRAM. WINDS DECREASE A TAD
AND EXTREME INSTABILITY EXPECTED WITH LK MI SFC TEMPS AROUND 17C
AND H8 TEMPS NEAR -4. CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTHS OF AT LEAST 10-15K
FT LIKELY PER FCST SNDGS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR A FEW COUNTIES THIS MORNING IF
HEAVIER SHOWERS REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREAS. OTHERWISE MOST AREAS
WILL SEE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN FROM THE SYSTEM PCPN AND THE LAKE
EFFECT RAINS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RIVERS WILL BE ABLE TO
HANDLE THIS RAIN AS IT OCCURS OVER A LONG TIME PERIOD.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ037-043-050-
056-064-071.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MEADE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
300 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE
MORNING EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
205 PM UPDATE...
SFC LOPRES SITTING NORTH OF LK MICHIGAN WITH CDFNT EXTNDG SWRD ALONG
THE IN/OH BORDER AND IS ON THE MV EAST. RAIN HAS DVLPD JUST AHD OF
SFC FNT AND HAS NOW MADE IT INTO WRN PA. CURRENT MVMNT HAS IT
EXPECTED TO MV INTO STEUBEN CNTY ARND 21Z. HOWEVER, LATEST HRRR IS
INDICATING PCPN ERODING AS IT HEADS EAST AND NOT SPREADING INTO WRN
SXNS UNTIL 00Z. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE A WET NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR
THE CWA AS SRLY FLOW FM THE GOM HAS WORKED ITS WAY NORTH WITH AN
AREA OF 1.5+ INCHES OF PW VALUES INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LKS.
EXPECT THAT THIS AREA OF MOISTURE WL MV QUICKLY THRU THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH MODERATE SHOWERS EXPECTED AT TIMES. CANNOT RULE OUT A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS K VALUES CLIMB ABV 30 HWVR MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
RMN PUNY BARELY CLIMBING TO 6 C/KM. THUS HV RMVD SLGT CHC THUNDER FM
THE GRIDS AS AM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH POTENTIAL.
THINK THAT WIDESPREAD RAIN WL BE IN AND OUT WITHIN A 3-HR PERIOD OF
TIME. BACK EDGE HAS MADE IT INTO ERN OHIO AND GIVEN SPEED OF SYSTEM
HV SPED UP TIMING ON LINE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS MVG INTO FINGER LKS
CNTYS BY MIDNIGHT AND OUT OF WRN CATS BY 06Z. LINGERING SHOWERS WL
RMN POSSIBLE BHND MAIN TROF THEREFORE HV RETAINED SCT-LKLY POPS THRU
MOST OF THE OVRNGT HRS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...
FROPA OCCURS SAT MRNG LVG COOL AIR IN ITS WAKE AS H8 TEMPS FALL
BLO 0C FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WL SET THE STAGE FOR LK EFFECT
SHOWERS, HWVR WITH FLOW BEING FM THE SW THRU THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM WL LKLY SEE ONLY CLDS SKIRTING THRU NRN ZONES. TEMPS WL RMN
STEADY OR FALL DRG THE DAY ON SATURDAY IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH EARLY HIGHS IN THE U50S/NR 60 THEN FALLING DRG THE DAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR NY CNTYS.
IF SKIES CAN CLR OUT SAT NGT, EXPECT MINS TO DIP INTO THE M30S.
HWVR CURRENT GROWING AREAS (FINGER LKS/WYOMING AND LACKAWANNA
VLYS) WL LKLY RMN IN THE U30S TO PREVENT ANY FROST SUN MRNG. THIS WILL
ALL DEPEND ON CLDS THO.
EXPECT TEMPS THRU THE END OF THE SHORT TERM TO APPCH SEASONAL
VALUES AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM DIVING SOUTH THRU CANADA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
3 PM FRI UPDATE... OVERALL...AN UNSETTLED PD IS IN STORE...AS A
DEEP ERN CANADIAN/CONUS TROUGH ONLY SLOWLY RELAXES ITS GRIP NEXT
WEEK.
ONE S/WV ROTATING ARND THE SERN QUADRANT OF THE NRN GREAT
LAKES UPR LOW WILL BRING A GOOD CHC OF SHWRS TUE INTO WED...WITH A
SFC FRNT ULTIMATELY SWEEPING THIS PCPN OFF THE COAST BY WED NGT.
AFTER A PROBABLE LULL ON THU WITH BRIEF S/WV RIDGING ALOFT...THE
NEXT SIG MID-LVL WV...ALG WITH A DVLPG E-W FRNTL ZN...LOOKS TO
IMPACT NY/PA TWDS THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A RENEWED CHC OF SHWRS.
TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR A BIT ABV CLIMO FOR EARLY OCT...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRI UPDATE... LWR CLDS CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY ERODE EARLY THIS
AFTN...AND WE SHOULD EVOLVE TO A SCT-BKN CU FIELD AS THE AFTN
WEARS ON. WE HAVE A MENTION OF LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT
KBGM/KAVP THROUGH 20-21Z...BUT OTHER THAN THAT...WE SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDS INTO THIS EVE.
WE`RE EXPECTING RAIN TO MOVE IN FROM W TO E LTR THIS EVE (ONSET
TIMES OF 02-04Z)...GENERALLY ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR RESTRICTIONS. THE
FRONTAL RAIN BAND LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY NARROW...SO WE ONLY
ANTICIPATE STEADIER PCPN TO LAST 4-5 HRS IN ANY ONE SPOT.
THUS...WE BRING MORE PROMINENT SHWRS OUT OF THE AREA FROM
08-10Z...BUT WITH MVFR CIGS LASTING A BIT LONGER.
ONCE THE MAIN COLD FRNT SLICES THROUGH THE RGN SAT MRNG
(13-15Z)...WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO UNRESTRICTED CONDS.
GUSTY SE SFC WINDS THROUGH THIS EVE...WILL TAPER DOWN A BIT LTR
TNT INTO EARLY SAT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE W POST-FROPA AFTER
13-15Z SAT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NGT TO MON...MAINLY VFR.
MON NGT INTO WED...SHRA WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY
TUE/TUE NGT.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
244 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE
MORNING EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
205 PM UPDATE...
SFC LOPRES SITTING NORTH OF LK MICHIGAN WITH CDFNT EXTNDG SWRD ALONG
THE IN/OH BORDER AND IS ON THE MV EAST. RAIN HAS DVLPD JUST AHD OF
SFC FNT AND HAS NOW MADE IT INTO WRN PA. CURRENT MVMNT HAS IT
EXPECTED TO MV INTO STEUBEN CNTY ARND 21Z. HOWEVER, LATEST HRRR IS
INDICATING PCPN ERODING AS IT HEADS EAST AND NOT SPREADING INTO WRN
SXNS UNTIL 00Z. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE A WET NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR
THE CWA AS SRLY FLOW FM THE GOM HAS WORKED ITS WAY NORTH WITH AN
AREA OF 1.5+ INCHES OF PW VALUES INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LKS.
EXPECT THAT THIS AREA OF MOISTURE WL MV QUICKLY THRU THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH MODERATE SHOWERS EXPECTED AT TIMES. CANNOT RULE OUT A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS K VALUES CLIMB ABV 30 HWVR MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
RMN PUNY BARELY CLIMBING TO 6 C/KM. THUS HV RMVD SLGT CHC THUNDER FM
THE GRIDS AS AM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH POTENTIAL.
THINK THAT WIDESPREAD RAIN WL BE IN AND OUT WITHIN A 3-HR PERIOD OF
TIME. BACK EDGE HAS MADE IT INTO ERN OHIO AND GIVEN SPEED OF SYSTEM
HV SPED UP TIMING ON LINE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS MVG INTO FINGER LKS
CNTYS BY MIDNIGHT AND OUT OF WRN CATS BY 06Z. LINGERING SHOWERS WL
RMN POSSIBLE BHND MAIN TROF THEREFORE HV RETAINED SCT-LKLY POPS THRU
MOST OF THE OVRNGT HRS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...
FROPA OCCURS SAT MRNG LVG COOL AIR IN ITS WAKE AS H8 TEMPS FALL
BLO 0C FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WL SET THE STAGE FOR LK EFFECT
SHOWERS, HWVR WITH FLOW BEING FM THE SW THRU THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM WL LKLY SEE ONLY CLDS SKIRTING THRU NRN ZONES. TEMPS WL RMN
STEADY OR FALL DRG THE DAY ON SATURDAY IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH EARLY HIGHS IN THE U50S/NR 60 THEN FALLING DRG THE DAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR NY CNTYS.
IF SKIES CAN CLR OUT SAT NGT, EXPECT MINS TO DIP INTO THE M30S.
HWVR CURRENT GROWING AREAS (FINGER LKS/WYOMING AND LACKAWANNA
VLYS) WL LKLY RMN IN THE U30S TO PREVENT ANY FROST SUN MRNG. THIS WILL
ALL DEPEND ON CLDS THO.
EXPECT TEMPS THRU THE END OF THE SHORT TERM TO APPCH SEASONAL
VALUES AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM DIVING SOUTH THRU CANADA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
310 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
BIG PICTURE ALREADY DESCRIBED BELOW. TUE NIGHT-WED REMAINS OUR
BEST SHOT AT RAINFALL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A DEEP TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THAT IS FIRST
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS NOW, WILL STILL HAVE AN IMPACT
ON OUR WEATHER NEXT WEEK! WITHIN THIS TROF ANOTHER CUT OFF WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, INCREASING RAIN OUR CHANCES FOR RAIN
BY LATE TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROF WE WILL BE ON THE FAR EASTERN
FRINGES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR TO JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS (HIGHS MID
TO UPPER 60S).
THE MAIN THREAT FOR RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS A CUT OFF LOW MENTIONED ABOVE MOVES OUR WAY. WITH A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW, A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN IS AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING
THIS PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRI UPDATE... LWR CLDS CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY ERODE EARLY THIS
AFTN...AND WE SHOULD EVOLVE TO A SCT-BKN CU FIELD AS THE AFTN
WEARS ON. WE HAVE A MENTION OF LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT
KBGM/KAVP THROUGH 20-21Z...BUT OTHER THAN THAT...WE SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDS INTO THIS EVE.
WE`RE EXPECTING RAIN TO MOVE IN FROM W TO E LTR THIS EVE (ONSET
TIMES OF 02-04Z)...GENERALLY ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR RESTRICTIONS. THE
FRONTAL RAIN BAND LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY NARROW...SO WE ONLY
ANTICIPATE STEADIER PCPN TO LAST 4-5 HRS IN ANY ONE SPOT.
THUS...WE BRING MORE PROMINENT SHWRS OUT OF THE AREA FROM
08-10Z...BUT WITH MVFR CIGS LASTING A BIT LONGER.
ONCE THE MAIN COLD FRNT SLICES THROUGH THE RGN SAT MRNG
(13-15Z)...WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO UNRESTRICTED CONDS.
GUSTY SE SFC WINDS THROUGH THIS EVE...WILL TAPER DOWN A BIT LTR
TNT INTO EARLY SAT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE W POST-FROPA AFTER
13-15Z SAT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NGT TO MON...MAINLY VFR.
MON NGT INTO WED...SHRA WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY
TUE/TUE NGT.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...HEDEN/MDP
AVIATION...MLJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
208 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT, BRINGING RAIN
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TO NY AND PA. MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE
50S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
205 PM UPDATE...
SFC LOPRES SITTING NORTH OF LK MICHIGAN WITH CDFNT EXTNDG SWRD ALONG
THE IN/OH BORDER AND IS ON THE MV EAST. RAIN HAS DVLPD JUST AHD OF
SFC FNT AND HAS NOW MADE IT INTO WRN PA. CURRENT MVMNT HAS IT
EXPECTED TO MV INTO STEUBEN CNTY ARND 21Z. HOWEVER, LATEST HRRR IS
INDICATING PCPN ERODING AS IT HEADS EAST AND NOT SPREADING INTO WRN
SXNS UNTIL 00Z. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE A WET NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR
THE CWA AS SRLY FLOW FM THE GOM HAS WORKED ITS WAY NORTH WITH AN
AREA OF 1.5+ INCHES OF PW VALUES INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LKS.
EXPECT THAT THIS AREA OF MOISTURE WL MV QUICKLY THRU THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH MODERATE SHOWERS EXPECTED AT TIMES. CANNOT RULE OUT A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS K VALUES CLIMB ABV 30 HWVR MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
RMN PUNY BARELY CLIMBING TO 6 C/KM. THUS HV RMVD SLGT CHC THUNDER FM
THE GRIDS AS AM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH POTENTIAL.
THINK THAT WIDESPREAD RAIN WL BE IN AND OUT WITHIN A 3-HR PERIOD OF
TIME. BACK EDGE HAS MADE IT INTO ERN OHIO AND GIVEN SPEED OF SYSTEM
HV SPED UP TIMING ON LINE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS MVG INTO FINGER LKS
CNTYS BY MIDNIGHT AND OUT OF WRN CATS BY 06Z. LINGERING SHOWERS WL
RMN POSSIBLE BHND MAIN TROF THEREFORE HV RETAINED SCT-LKLY POPS THRU
MOST OF THE OVRNGT HRS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
VIGOROUS CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT PWATS AROUND
1.50 INCHES INTO THE FA, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
POWERFUL JET WILL CREATE A HIGHLY SHEARED ATMOSPHERE. 0-6KM BULK
SHEARS ARE IN THE 50-60KT RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. SO EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS.
HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LAPSE
RATES ARE WEAK (MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY IN THE 5C-6C RANGE).
HOWEVER THERE IS JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT TO GENERATE
K-INDICES AROUND 30 LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, SO
CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON SATURDAY...925MB TEMPS FALL FROM 12-14C
TO AROUND 9C BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFOR EXPECT A NON-
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND WITH MOST AREAS SEEING MAX TEMPS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.
DRIER AIR FOLLOWS ON SUNDAY, BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN FA GIVEN AMPLE LAKE-INDUCED
INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID OR UPPER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
310 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
BIG PICTURE ALREADY DESCRIBED BELOW. TUE NIGHT-WED REMAINS OUR
BEST SHOT AT RAINFALL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A DEEP TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THAT IS FIRST
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS NOW, WILL STILL HAVE AN IMPACT
ON OUR WEATHER NEXT WEEK! WITHIN THIS TROF ANOTHER CUT OFF WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, INCREASING RAIN OUR CHANCES FOR RAIN
BY LATE TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROF WE WILL BE ON THE FAR EASTERN
FRINGES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR TO JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS (HIGHS MID
TO UPPER 60S).
THE MAIN THREAT FOR RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS A CUT OFF LOW MENTIONED ABOVE MOVES OUR WAY. WITH A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW, A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN IS AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING
THIS PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRI UPDATE... LWR CLDS CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY ERODE EARLY THIS
AFTN...AND WE SHOULD EVOLVE TO A SCT-BKN CU FIELD AS THE AFTN
WEARS ON. WE HAVE A MENTION OF LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT
KBGM/KAVP THROUGH 20-21Z...BUT OTHER THAN THAT...WE SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDS INTO THIS EVE.
WE`RE EXPECTING RAIN TO MOVE IN FROM W TO E LTR THIS EVE (ONSET
TIMES OF 02-04Z)...GENERALLY ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR RESTRICTIONS. THE
FRONTAL RAIN BAND LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY NARROW...SO WE ONLY
ANTICIPATE STEADIER PCPN TO LAST 4-5 HRS IN ANY ONE SPOT.
THUS...WE BRING MORE PROMINENT SHWRS OUT OF THE AREA FROM
08-10Z...BUT WITH MVFR CIGS LASTING A BIT LONGER.
ONCE THE MAIN COLD FRNT SLICES THROUGH THE RGN SAT MRNG
(13-15Z)...WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO UNRESTRICTED CONDS.
GUSTY SE SFC WINDS THROUGH THIS EVE...WILL TAPER DOWN A BIT LTR
TNT INTO EARLY SAT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE W POST-FROPA AFTER
13-15Z SAT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NGT TO MON...MAINLY VFR.
MON NGT INTO WED...SHRA WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY
TUE/TUE NGT.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...HEDEN/MDP
AVIATION...MLJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
141 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND EXIT THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN OVER THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE APPALACHIANS FROM
THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AHEAD
OF IT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT FRIDAY...
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AND WIND GUSTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES WITH THE LATEST OBS AND MODEL TREND. MODIFIED POPS
WITH THE LATEST WSR-88D IMAGES.
AS OF 938 AM EDT FRIDAY...
A STRONG COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST IN THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING
WITH CONVECTION AHEAD AND ALONG IT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND CROSS
OUR REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR
THIS AFTERNOON HAS SHIFTED THE 5 PERCENT FOR WIND POTENTIAL AREA
UNDER SEE TEXT TO OUR SOUTH FROM NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWESTWARD TO
GEORGIA. THERE MAY STILL BE AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF VA INTO NC. USED A BLEND
OF THE HRRR AND RNK WRFARW TO SHAPED POPS FOR THIS MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MORE CHANGES LATER...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY...
MODELS OVERALL IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN QPF AND PLACEMENT
OF HIGHER LEVEL INSTABILITY...BUT NOT THAT BIG AT THIS POINT.
STILL DEALING WITH STRATUS/FOG FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS SOUTH
INTO THE UPPER ROANOKE VALLEY...EAST TO THE VA PIEDMONT. THE 00Z
CMC/NAM SHOW THIS PRETTY WELL AND FOLLOWED THEIR CLOUD COVER
DEPICTION INTO TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS ARE RACING EWD AHEAD OF
CONVECTION THAT IS LINED UP FROM CVG SOUTH THROUGH CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU TN INTO AL.
TODAY...EXPECT THE LOWER CLOUDS TO ERODE BY LATE MORNING BUT GIVE
WAY TO MID/HIGH CLOUDS...SO NOT A LOT OF SUNSHINE TO BE HAD...BUT
JUST ENOUGH TO BOOST TEMPS IN THE EAST TOWARD 80 AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS
IN THE 70S. A FEW SHOWERS EARLY IN THE LYH AREA BEFORE DAWN...WITH
PRE- FRONTAL SHOWERS ARRIVING TOWARD SRN WV INTO FAR SW VA BY LATE
MORNING.
INSTABILITY TODAY WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUD COVER AND
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE WEAK. ON THE OTHER
HAND...DECENT SHEAR MAY LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS AND FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE SW MTNS
OF VA INTO NC...AND MAY SEE SOME STRONGER CONVECTION LATER TODAY IN
THE SOUTHEAST CWA...BUT AT THAT TIME BEST DYNAMICS ARE HEADING NORTH
WITH ANOTHER AREA DEVELOPING EAST OF RALEIGH.
BASED ON THE STORM PREDICTION CENTERS FORECAST WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
SRN WV TO NW NC MTNS FOR GUSTY...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE MAY BE 2-3 BROKEN LINES OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM PIVOTING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. ONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BEST COVERAGE FROM WV SOUTH INTO
THE NC BLUE RIDGE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LESS COVERAGE EAST OF THE DAN
AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE PAINTING ENOUGH LIFT AND QPF TO GO WITH
LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF
LIFT ARRIVES THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONT BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST AND THIS LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS TO THE BLUE
RIDGE AND AND EAST...BEFORE EXITING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AT THIS POINT COLD AIR ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL COMMENCE INTO
THE WV/FAR SW VA MTNS AND EVENTUALLY NW NC. FLOW ALOFT AT 5H
REMAINS SW WITH WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC SO SOME LOW LVL
CONVERGENCE IS THERE...BUT NOT AS FAVORABLE AS A NW FLOW EVENT.
LOOK FOR THE SKIES TO CLEAR LEE OF THE SRN BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT AND
OUT EAST IN THE PIEDMONT TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY....WHILE THE MTNS
REMAINS BKN/OVC. TEMPS ARE TRICKY TONIGHT GIVEN MIXING AND
CLOUDS...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 8H TEMPS STILL FAVOR SOME OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S BY SAT
MORNING...WHILE MOST WILL SEE LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID
40S MOUNTAINS TO MID TO UPPER 50 SOUTHEAST...AS THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS DELAYED UNTIL SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...
BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR
AREA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WESTERN GULF REGION.
WILL START THE DAY OFF WITH A ROUGHLY 6MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO 25MPH TO 30MPH GUSTS DURING THE
MORNING FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...POSSIBLY
STRONGER ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE STRONGEST
DURING THE MORNING...AND WILL GRADUALLY RELAX DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE RIDGELINES FROM SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY IN
OUR FAR WEST...LIMITING HEATING SUCH THAT A FEW LOCATIONS MAY HOLD
IN THE UPPER 40S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. FURTHER EAST HOWEVER...CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP IN THE DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW...ALLOWING FOR
STRONGER HEATING FROM WEST TO EAST. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHSIDE WILL
REACH INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.
EXPECT TO HEAD INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER...
WHICH WILL ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO DROP OFF TO NEAR CALM FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. COOL TEMPERATURES AS THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
PASSING OVERHEAD WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
BRING SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS...
POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 20S IN A FEW SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARMER FURTHER EAST...GENERALLY UPPER 30S/LOW 40S. OF CONCERN WILL
BE THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FROST DEVELOPING IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN SUNDAY...WHICH MAY CAUSE DAMAGE TO TENDER
VEGETATION. FROST WILL BE MORE LIKELY IN AREAS OUT IN THE OPEN...
AWAY FROM TREES WHERE THE LEAF COVER WOULD OFFER SOME PROTECTION
FROM FROST FORMATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BRINGING OUR WIND DIRECTION MORE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. AS SUCH...EXPECT A WARMING TREND FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALSO MEANS THAT FROST APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO PASS
ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...TRIGGERING RAINFALL THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
REGION. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIFFER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOME MODELS BRINGING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE AREA WHILE
OTHERS KEEP HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON WHICHEVER MODEL SOLUTION WINS OUT...BUT IN EITHER
EVENT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE AT LEAST NEAR SEASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 141 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THE WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED NORTH INTO NORTHERN VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A STRONG COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST MOVING
EAST ACROSS OHIO VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
MVFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF
THE STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHTN COULD CONTAIN
GUSTY WINDS.
WIND FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AND AT TIME SOUTHEAST...WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST THEN WEST
WITH UPSLOPE GETTING GOING IN THE MTNS. SOUNDING FORECASTS SUGGEST
MORE DZ AT BLF/LWB THAN -RA. EXPECT IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
TIMING OF CLEARING IS STILL TRICKY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE CLEARING OUT IN THE PIEDMONT TO
ROANOKE/BLACKSBURG BUT UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS AT BLF/LWB MAY OCCUR INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN VFR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. A FRONT CLOSES IN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING. RAIN CHANCES LOOK SMALL MONDAY NOW AS MAIN WAVE STAYS
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MAY SEE A BETTER THREAT OF SHOWERS TUESDAY
WITH MODERATE THREAT OF SUB VFR INTO THE MTNS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...KK/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1245 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RAIN SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES THAT HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA/EASTERN MINNESOTA. AS OF
9AM...THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS CURL SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA DOWN THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES AND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER NEAR LA CROSSE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN FAIRLY LOW ON THE
RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES LOCALLY...BUT SOME STRONGER FORCING TO THE
NORTHWEST SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MID
LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF AND PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST. BECAUSE OF
THIS...HAVE ADDED THE RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THOUGH
MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH ON THE POPS GIVEN THE COVERAGE. THERMALLY
IT LOOKS WARM ENOUGH BASED ON RAP SOUNDINGS TO STAY AS ALL RAIN
UNTIL LATER ON TONIGHT WHEN THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN THAT IT COULD
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. WILL LET ALL OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE COME IN
BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH THE WINDS TODAY AND THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH ACROSS
WISCONSIN. LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING SHOWERS OCCURRING
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO
EASTERN IOWA AND THESE WERE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
BY 12Z...EXPECTING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT
TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BUT WILL HOLD ONTO A SMALL RAIN CHANCE
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS JUST TO MAKE SURE THEY ARE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA.
AFTER THAT...THE CONCERN FOR TODAY IS WITH THE WINDS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA...THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME TIGHT
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW. AT THE SAME
TIME...A TROPOPAUSE FOLD WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE
03.00Z NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THIS WILL NOT BE AN OVERLY STRONG TROP
FOLD AND SHOULD ONLY GET DOWN TO ABOUT 350 MB OR SO. THE REGION
WILL BE ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF BOTH THE 500 AND 300 MB JET WHICH
WILL HELP TO CREATE SOME ADDITIONAL SUBSIDENCE. THE BEST 3 HOUR
PRESSURE RISES WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AS WILL THE BEST
850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. WITH 850 MB WINDS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A WINDY DAY BUT
WITH SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. IN THE WIND PRONE
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...SHOULD SEE
SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35
KNOTS. THE WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL COME DOWN SOME AFTER
SUNSET...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT REALLY SHOW A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION DEVELOPING...SO EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.
THE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING
OVER MINNESOTA. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN TONIGHT WITH SOME WEAK TO MODERATE QG
CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE 850-300 MB LAYER. THERE
SHOULD ALSO BE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE 285K
ISENTROPIC SURFACE AS THIS LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION UNDERNEATH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH ALL THE MODELS SHOWING THIS SLIDING
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. HAVE MAINTAINED THE 80
PERCENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BUT SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING SOME.
NOT REALLY EXPECTING THIS TO START MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING AND
THEN MAINLY AFFECTING LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SNOW TONIGHT AS THERE WILL BE ICE IN THE
CLOUDS AND THE ENTIRE SOUNDING BELOW ZERO EXCEPT FOR THE LOWEST
LEVELS. AS THESE LOW LEVELS COOL...SNOW SHOULD MIX IN WITH THE
RAIN AND IN SOME PLACES IT COULD COMPLETELY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
FOR AWHILE...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE RATES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER. THIS
COULD PRODUCE A FEW TENTHS OF ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY SURFACE...BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING OVER A HALF INCH.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES PAST THE AREA...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVING BY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S
TODAY AND UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SATURDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S AND A FREEZE WARNING AND/OR FROST ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE COUNTRY. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW INITIALLY SOUTH OF HUDSONS BAY IS EXPECT TO RETROGRADE SOME
EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE STARTING TO MOVE EAST AGAIN BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. CURRENT INDICATIONS BY THE MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL COME
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO MODERATE MUCH WITH MAINLY 50S
UNTIL POSSIBLY ABOUT THURSDAY WHEN SOME 60S COULD RETURN TO THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS ON THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TONIGHT AND WHETHER ANY IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH IT.
SOME LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION BUT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE UP TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS SHIFTING
EAST. THE MORE IMPRESSIVE BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL DROP DOWN
LATER TONIGHT AND SHOULD FEATURE RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
BETWEEN 6-12Z. THERE STILL IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT WHETHER IT WILL
SNOW IN THE VALLEY AT LSE AND WHETHER ANY OF THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL
MAKE IT INTO RST...SO HAVE NOT PUT IN ANY IFR VISIBILITIES YET FOR
THE SNOW. SHOULD CONFIDENCE INCREASE THIS EVENING...THEN THE MOST
LIKELY PERIOD FOR THE SNOW/IFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE BETWEEN 7-12Z.
THE BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY AND BE OUT
BY MID MORNING SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TOMORROW WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 30KTS EXPECTED...EVEN
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...HALBACH