Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/02/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AT THE PRESENT TIME. THE
RAP AND HRRR MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING A ROUND TO SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL
MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE SAN JUANS
AND NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS.
OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AFTER PASSAGE OF
THE SHORT WAVE...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN TO THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S. WILL KEEP THE FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT THAT HAS
BEEN IN EFFECT GOING OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO...BUT THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE
REGION COULD ALSO PICKUP ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES AROUND WHERE
THEY WERE TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
THE FINAL SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE STATE AFTER THAT. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING AND WARMING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WEATHER WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
EVENTUALLY WARMING TO ALMOST 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT HAVE ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS ACROSS EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES AFTER ABOUT
01Z. TAFS WILL MENTION VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS AFER 01Z. ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER THE STATE TOMORROW WILL
LIKELY GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ069>071.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...DANKERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1058 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH GUSTY WINDS IN/NEAR THE FRONT RANGE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN BORDER AREA. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE CONFINED TO THOSE AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 50 MPH EXPECTED ABOVE TIMBERLINE WITH 30 TO 40
MPH GUSTS NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER. HOWEVER...THEY WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AS CROSS MOUNTAIN
COMPONENT EASES. MEANWHILE...WITH INCREASED MIXING WE DO EXPECT
CHANNELS OF WESTERLY WINDS TO SPREAD ONTO THE PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME SOME LOCATIONS COULD REMAIN EASTERLY IN THIS CURRENT WEATHER
SCENARIO SINCE STRONGEST DOWNWARD FORCING IS PUSHING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD SOME LOW POPS ON THE PLAINS BY THIS EVENING
AS LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A BIT OF CAPE AND ENOUGH HEATING
TODAY TO SUFFICIENTLY MIX OUT STABLE LAYER. IN ADDITION...THE WEAK
WAVE MOVING ACROSS UTAH MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT COOLING TO ALLOW A
FEW SHOWERS TO SPREAD ONTO THE PLAINS. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS FOR OROGRAPHICS COMBINING WITH WEAK LIFT THROUGH
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
DEEP UPPER AIR CYCLONE CENTERED OVER EXTREME NWRN NEBRASKA AT
THIS HOUR WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACRS
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND THEN UP OVER MANITOBA LATER TODAY.
STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS DEPARTING LOW
PRES SYSTEM WAS NOW OVER COLORADO. NAM AND RAP QG VERT VELOCITY
FIELDS AND ON H2O VAPOR SAT IMAGERY NICELY REVEAL THIS SINKING.
STABILIZATION OF THE MTN TOP LAYER PAST FEW HOURS HAS PRODUCE A
STANDING MTN WAVE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...RESULTING IN GUSTY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FRONT RANGE. NAM
AND RAP CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE CROSS BARRIER WINDS IN THE
45-55KT RANGE BY AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...THEN ONLY SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AT 15Z. WIND SENSORS ATOP THE HIGH RIDGES WERE ALREADY
INDICATING GUSTS IN THE 45-55 MPH RANGE. COULD SEE SOME OF THIS
MOMENTUM SPREADING TO LOWER EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DO NOT SEE WINDS REACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME. FURTHERMORE...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THESE STRONG WINDS
WILL SPREAD OUT ONTO THE NEARBY THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA COULD SEE W-NWLY WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOMENTUM MIXING DOWN
FROM ALOFT.
CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS EAST OF THE MTNS LATER TODAY. CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALSO
RETURN TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE RACING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. QG VV REVERSE
AND GO POSITIVE THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS NEXT WAVE OF MOISTURE AND
ENERGY NEARS. COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS
IN THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS BY MID- TO LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL
WILL HOOVER AROUND 11 THSND FT TODAY...AND DROP TO AROUND 9500 FT
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
BY EVENING SKIES SHOULD ALSO FILL WITH CLOUDS EAST OF THE MTNS AS
THIS WEAK PERTABATION PASSES BY...THEN PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
WITH ITS DEPARTURE. PCPN IS NOT ANTICIPATED THRU 12Z/WED EAST OF
THE MTNS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH INCREASING
NORTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. QG FIELDS SHOWING INCREASING ASCENT
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...PEAKING OVER THE FRONT RANGE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND FURTHER EAST ON THE PLAINS DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON TIMING WITH THIS TROF. GIVEN
THE FRONT AND FORCING ALOFT WILL BUMP POPS UP FURTHER TO LIKELY
OVER MOST SECTIONS DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
TROF IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE SO SHOWERS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIP DURATION WILL BE IN THE 3-6
HOUR RANGE. THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE MOUNTAINS.
FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THERE WILL BE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND
AS COLORADO WILL BE UNDER A MODERATE...NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
WIND DIRECTION FORECAST WILL BE A CHALLENGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH POTENTIAL FOR CHANNELS OF WESTERLY WINDS TO MOVE OFF THE
FOOTHILLS. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE WILL BE SOME DIURNAL
EASTERLIES THAT THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BATTLING THROUGH 00Z.
WEST WINDS COULD GUST TO AROUND 18 KTS WHILE ANY EASTERLIES WILL
BE LIGHTER AROUND 5-10 KTS. AFTER 00Z...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO NORMAL DIURNAL SOUTH/SOUTHEWESTERLIES NEAR 10 KTS.
LOW CHANCE OF A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER 00Z-05Z BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
HIGH ENOUGH FOR VISUAL LANDING CONDITIONS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1031 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE FORTHCOMING. A TRAILING UPPER
DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER COLORADO TODAY
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE ENOUGH STRENGTH TO PRODUCE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PARK AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES LOOK LIKE THEY
WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SHOWERS. THE HRRR MODEL ALSO DEVELOPS A
BAND OF SHOWERS OVER PUEBLO COUNTY AFTER 01Z...BUT THE RAP KEEPS
THE PLAINS DRY. WILL FAVOR THE RAP SOLUTION...SINCE IT APPEARS
THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF DOWNSLOPE SUBSIDENCE ALONG AND EAST
OF THE FOOTHILLS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING AS THE LAST VORT MAX IN THE UPPER
TROUGH ROTATES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TONIGHT WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
WFO BOU WILL BE PROVIDING FULL SERVICE BACKUP FOR US TODAY
STARTING AT APPROXIMATELY 7 AM MDT WHILE WFO PUEBLO UNDERGOES
A MAJOR COMPUTER UPGRADE. WFO PUB SHOULD BE BACK IN CONTROL
BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
...ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES...
SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY HAS BROUGHT A SEASONAL AIR MASS
TO SOUTHERN COLORADO. TODAY WILL BE A SEASONAL FALL DAY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND
MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ABOVE ROUGHLY 10000 FEET TODAY WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH
OR SO POSSIBLE AT PASS LEVEL AND ABOVE.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAINS ONTO THE
PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY IN THE EVENING. BUT THIS WOULD
REALLY BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE. IN GENERAL...MOSTLY
SUNNY OR PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.
CURRENT FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY CONTINUES TO LOOK
GOOD FOR THIS MORNING. THE VALLEY HAS HAD SOME MOISTURE OVER THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS AND TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S UNDER CLEAR SKIES. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 30S.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO NEAR THE DEWPOINTS BY MORNING...WHICH
WOULD MEAN LOWS NEAR FREEZING...NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS...AND THUS
A FROST. THE VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER FROST TONIGHT...SO WILL
GO AHEAD AND HOIST ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY FOR THEN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE LONG RANGE FORECAST WITH LOW ENSEMBLE
SPREADS AND GOOD OPERATIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVE ACROSS COLORADO. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD EAST
INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN THREAT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH 30 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE OUT NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER. MODELS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THE PLAINS. FOR NOW FOLLOWED THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE NAM IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS STORM TRACK AND
KEEPS SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SNOW
LEVELS FALL TO AROUND 10 KFT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY...WITH 60S EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS WILL BE COOL...WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY...AND 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME
AMPLIFIED AND STATIONARY THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER BROAD NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
WARM...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SKIES
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. KALS COULD SEE SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OTHER AREAS WILL SEE LESS WIND.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ069>071.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DANKERS/WFO BOULDER
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...DANKERS/WFO BOULDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
405 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
DEEP UPPER AIR CYCLONE CENTERED OVER EXTREME NWRN NEBRASKA AT
THIS HOUR WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACRS
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND THEN UP OVER MANITOBA LATER TODAY.
STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS DEPARTING LOW
PRES SYSTEM WAS NOW OVER COLORADO. NAM AND RAP QG VERT VELOCITY
FIELDS AND ON H2O VAPOR SAT IMAGERY NICELY REVEAL THIS SINKING.
STABILIZATION OF THE MTN TOP LAYER PAST FEW HOURS HAS PRODUCE A
STANDING MTN WAVE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...RESULTING IN GUSTY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FRONT RANGE. NAM
AND RAP CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE CROSS BARRIER WINDS IN THE
45-55KT RANGE BY AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...THEN ONLY SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AT 15Z. WIND SENSORS ATOP THE HIGH RIDGES WERE ALREADY
INDICATING GUSTS IN THE 45-55 MPH RANGE. COULD SEE SOME OF THIS
MOMENTUM SPREADING TO LOWER EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DO NOT SEE WINDS REACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME. FURTHERMORE...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THESE STRONG WINDS
WILL SPREAD OUT ONTO THE NEARBY THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA COULD SEE W-NWLY WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOMENTUM MIXING DOWN
FROM ALOFT.
CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS EAST OF THE MTNS LATER TODAY. CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALSO
RETURN TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE RACING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. QG VV REVERSE
AND GO POSITIVE THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS NEXT WAVE OF MOISTURE AND
ENERGY NEARS. COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS
IN THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS BY MID- TO LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL
WILL HOOVER AROUND 11 THSND FT TODAY...AND DROP TO AROUND 9500 FT
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
BY EVENING SKIES SHOULD ALSO FILL WITH CLOUDS EAST OF THE MTNS AS
THIS WEAK PERTABATION PASSES BY...THEN PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
WITH ITS DEPARTURE. PCPN IS NOT ANTICIPATED THRU 12Z/WED EAST OF
THE MTNS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH INCREASING
NORTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. QG FIELDS SHOWING INCREASING ASCENT
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...PEAKING OVER THE FRONT RANGE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND FURTHER EAST ON THE PLAINS DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON TIMING WITH THIS TROF. GIVEN
THE FRONT AND FORCING ALOFT WILL BUMP POPS UP FURTHER TO LIKELY
OVER MOST SECTIONS DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
TROF IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE SO SHOWERS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIP DURATION WILL BE IN THE 3-6
HOUR RANGE. THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE MOUNTAINS.
FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THERE WILL BE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND
AS COLORADO WILL BE UNDER A MODERATE...NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT DENVER AREA TERMINAL AND GATES
THROUGH 12Z/WED. ALTHOUGH CEILINGS MAY LOWER BELOW 10 THSND FT
AGL AFTER 22Z TODAY AND POSSIBLY LOWER TO AROUND 8 THSND FT AGL
EARLY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE PASSES BY. AT
THIS TIME...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT
DRAINAGE WINDS OF 5-12KTS AT DIA AND APA THROUGH MID-
MORNING...THEN A GRADUAL CLOCKWISE SHIFT TO WLY WINDS OF 7-14KTS
BY MIDDAY WHERE THEY SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
BEFORE RESUMING A TYPICAL DRAINAGE PATTERN. ON THE OTHER HAND
...WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-25KT CAN BE EXPECTED AT BJC NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN 7-13 NWLY WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN S-SWLY WINDS OF 4-8KTS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
211 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY INTO TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT...EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE DOESN`T FEATURE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. JUST BATTLING THE PLACEMENT OF THE
LOWER CLOUDS THANKS TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH IS WASHING OUT
OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO ERODE, ALBEIT SLOWLY. WHERE
THE SUN HAS BEEN OUT, TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY AROUND 70F. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AFTERNOON HIGHS -- BASICALLY A SLIGHT
LOWERING IN THE CLOUDY AREAS (PITTSFIELD & GLENS FALLS -- I`M
CALLING YOU GUYS OUT) AND A SLIGHT INCREASE AT SOME OF THE MORE
SUNNIER LOCATIONS.
ON THE SHOWER CHANCE PERSPECTIVE THE NEXT 6 HOURS, RELIED MORE ON
THE MESO-MODELS -- SUCH AS THE RAP, HRRR AND LOCALLY RUN WRF
MODELS UP HERE AT NWS BURLINGTON. ALL INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ACROSS CENTRAL NY UP TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE ADIRONDACKS. LATEST
ANALYSIS DOES INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY (LI VALUE NEAR 0 AND CAPE
200-400 J/KG) IN THOSE AREAS. THUS HAVE SOME 15-25% POPS FOR THE
FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED ACTIVITY.
MESO-MODELS ALSO HINTING AT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT AND MOVING WESTWARD THIS EVENING INTO
AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. AT THIS POINT AM
DISCOUNTING THAT DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.
FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT, THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA. AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST IT APPEARS (ACCORDING TO 12Z
GUIDANCE SUITE) THAT IT WILL INTERACT WITH THE DEEPER ATLANTIC
MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RESULT IN THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION. WITH AN OVERALL EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE, THIS MEANS SOME OF THAT WILL ADVECT WESTWARD ACROSS
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT AND INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE THUS
PAINTED IN AN INCREASING TREND OF POPS LATER TONIGHT IN THOSE AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER
OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND TOWARDS NJ AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AND A LINGERING THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SHOWER OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE IT
SHOULD BE RAIN FREE ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE APPROACHING /AND AMPLIFYING/ TROUGH OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DESPITE THE TRANQUIL WEATHER
EXPECTED...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION TO
KEEP MORE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST.
THE UPSTREAM DEEPENING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COMBINATION OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ORIGINATING FROM
THE GULF COULD PROVIDE THE REGION WITH SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN. PER
THE ENSEMBLES...QPF/S BETWEEN 0.50-1.00" ARE EXPECTED. WHILE NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED...THIS WILL BE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL AS PORTIONS
OF THE CATSKILLS...HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...TACONICS AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY ARE IN `D0` PER THE DROUGHT MONITOR /ABNORMALLY
DRY/. WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
FROPA IS EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY MORNING WITH BRISK AND COOLER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. IN FACT...THE DEGREE OF COLDER
AIR ADVECTING IN WILL ACTIVATE LAKE ONTARIO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. PER
TRAJECTORIES...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS THE DACKS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN BROAD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP
OUR PATTERN COOL AND UNSETTLED.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...COMBINATION OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS
(DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS/CEILINGS). SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT WITH SUNSET EXPECT THE LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO BEGIN TO EXPAND WESTWARD AND FILLING IN
THROUGH THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. ANTICIPATE MVFR, IF NOT IFR,
CEILINGS TO BE COMMON AFTER 06Z. MAY EVEN AGAIN SEE FOG DEVELOPING
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AROUND
POU. AT THIS POINT JUST MENTIONED VCSH SINCE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND INTO MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AS WELL. COULD
SEE PRECIPITATION AS FAR NORTH AS ALB AND PSF, BUT KEPT THE
MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT AT THIS TIME SINCE THE CHANCES ARE LOW.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AGAIN, THE IFR CONDITIONS
WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 14/15Z WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY..
18Z WED TO 00Z FRI...MVFR TO LOCAL IFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
00Z FRI TO 12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR
12Z SAT ONWARD...MVFR WITH SHOWERS. STRONG/GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND
LLWS ALSO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.
ANY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. THOUGH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HEAVIER -- PERHAPS 3/4" OR SO --- NO
SIGNIFICANT RESPONSES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS POINT ON AREA RIVERS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...NASH
HYDROLOGY...NASH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
938 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING TO OUR EAST BY FRIDAY. A VERY POTENT COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BRIEF
RESPITE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MONDAY. THEN A SERIES OF IMPULSES
LOOK TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SPIN TO OUR NORTHEAST AND WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. AN ABUNDANCE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA
AROUND THE LOW, WHICH WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE FOR THE
EARLY PART OF TONIGHT. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM KEEP THE MAJORITY OF
BARELY MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN AND COASTAL
AREAS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT WHILE THE HRRR DISSIPATES
MOST ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE IT GETS HERE. SO WE WILL
KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS WHERE THERE ARE
CURRENTLY REFLECTIVITIES AND THE NORTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE SOME
LIGHT PRECIP MAY MOVE IN LATER.
MOST OF OUR CWA WE ARE EXPECTING TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY (OR STAY
CLOUDY) AS THE FCST SOUNDINGS ARE PRETTY MOIST BELOW 850MB. TO BE
CONSISTENT, THIS WOULD PRECLUDE MUCH MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AND
ALSO CONTINUING TO SIDE WITH THE HIGHER STAT GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A QUICKER MODELING TREND TO ENDING THE PCPN CHANCES BASED
ON THE FASTER 500MB LOW MOVEMENT. PCPN CHANCES IN MORNING ONLY.
MODELS INDICATING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE BEING REACHED AND MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THAN EVEN TODAY. WE ARE NOT GOING TO BE FAST TO
INCREASE SUNSHINE BECAUSE OF THIS. ON THE OTHER HAND ANY CHANNELIZED
PVA IS DONE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. FULL SUN MACROS
SUGGESTING MAX TEMPS ABOUT 5F ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE. THAT STAT
GUIDANCE DROP OFF LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN AFTN PREDICTED CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE AROUND 70. AN INDICATOR OF POSSIBLY FASTER CLEARING
TOMORROW WOULD BE IF WINDS BACK FURTHER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THAN
PREDICTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL FOR PHASING OF A STRONG
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST THAT CARVES OUT A
VERY LARGE AND DEEP CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. A FEW BREAKS IN THE ACTION ARE EXPECTED WITH WEAK
RIDGING, BUT OVERALL WE WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING A BIT SLOWER WITH BREAKING THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGING DOWN AND THEREFORE KEEPS US MOSTLY DRY DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP US DAMP WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER
IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW-70S. STRONG COLD FRONT
NEARS FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS BEGINNING TO
OVERSPREAD. THE LACK OF INSTABILITY, WITH ITS NOCTURNAL PASSAGE,
SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF THUNDER, IF ANY, THOUGH THERE IS AMPLE
LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY SEE A FEW TALLER UPDRAFTS.
SATURDAY...THE FRONT CONTINUES TO BARREL THROUGH THE REGION EARLY.
PRETTY HEFTY HEIGHTS FALLS WITH VERY ROBUST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS,
500MB JET NEARLY 70KTS, AND A NEGATIVELY TILTING TROUGH AXIS ARE
PRIME INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EVEN A NARROW COLD
FRONTAL RAIN BAND. TOO EARLY TO HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON THE NARROW
RAIN BAND BUT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A SHARP WIND SHIFT WITH THE
STRONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE LIFTING, LOW EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS, AND
TREMENDOUS UPPER LEVEL MOMENTUM...EVEN WITH THE LACK OF SURFACE
INSTABILITY. EITHER WAY THESE SHOWERS WILL BE SOAKERS AS WE TAP INTO
THE GOMEX/ATLANTIC MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST.
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE STILL PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE REGION SO NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY TO OCCUR WITH THE POSSIBLE
HEAVIER RAIN. POST FRONTAL WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONG AS WELL WITH A
DECENT ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE DROPPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY SO WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT A LATE MORNING HIGH.
SUNDAY...COLD FRONT OFF TO THE EAST WITH TROUGHING ESTABLISHING
ITSELF TO OUR WEST AND A CRISP COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE. A DRY DAY IS
ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER-50S TO LOW-60S.
MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES ROTATE THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THIS ALLOWS FOR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS EACH DAY THOUGH TIMING OF THE WAVES IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE AT
THIS JUNCTURE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CONDITIONS VARY FROM SITE TO SITE, FROM VFR TO MVFR. THERE IS AN
ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT LOCATED TO OUR NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS, BEFORE WE EXPECT ALL
SITES TO LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE NORTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS.
ON THURSDAY WE EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON, SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WITH SPEEDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES LATE, OVERSPREADS THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS IN HEAVY SHOWERS.
EASTERLY WINDS BACK SOUTHEAST.
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY IN HEAVY RAIN, TRENDING VFR. WINDS
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BECOMING GUSTY.
SUNDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS AT BUOY9 ARE AROUND 4 TO 5 FEET, ABOUT A FOOT OVER WAVE WATCH
GUIDANCE. UNFORTUNATELY BUOY65 REMAINS OTS. WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE QUITE ROBUST WITH THE SWELLS AND EVEN IF THIS GFS
BASED RUN IS TOO SLOW, SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA INTO THURSDAY. NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE WINDS
GETTING THERE AS THE JET MAY PASS EAST OF OUR COASTAL WATERS.
BECAUSE OF THE LATTER, NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR
DELAWARE BAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ON OUR
WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS WE CONTINUE WITH THE EASTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 5 FEET. WINDS BEGIN TO BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.
SATURDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE
WEST-NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY AND WITH STRONGER COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURRING, WE COULD SEE A RETURN TO SCA CONDITIONS.
GUSTY WINDS IN THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS...MOSTLY IN THE MORNING.
SUNDAY...RESIDUAL SCA WIND GUSTS DROP OFF BY LATE MORNING. SEAS
SHOULD ALSO DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS TO AROUND 3-4 FEET.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH PERSISTENT BREEZY NORTHERLY AND NORTH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, TIDAL DEPARTURES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOONS HIGH
TIDE SHOULD RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN TIDES BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER, WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEPARTURES OVER THE NEXT HIGH AND LOW
TIDE CYCLES.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...GIGI/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GIGI/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/HEAVENER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1244 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FOR LATER
MONDAY AND INTO NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE MIDDAY UPDATE, WE ADJUSTED SKY COVER ACROSS THE REGION TO
REFLECT THE CLEARING SEEN ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. SOME
SCATTERED CUMULUS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP, THOUGH, AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE BEING MET, AND THIS WILL INCREASE SOME THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WITH REGARDS TO ANY POSSIBLE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LATE-DAY SHOWER ACTIVITY, WE TRIMMED IT BACK SOME
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING, BASED ON HRRR GUIDANCE.
HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ARE STILL CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WERE TWEAKED USING
THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE, AND WE NUDGED MAX TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE
OR TWO IN A FEW SPOTS.
REST OF TODAY...BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IT SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNSHINE VSBY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
SCATTERED CLOUDS. AFTERNOON HEATING DEVELOPS SMALL SHOWERS NW OF
I95 WHICH PROBABLY HAVE A TENDENCY TO DRIFT WEST. IF THERE IS TO
BE ANY THUNDER THIS FAR EAST...IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR
WESTERN EDGE OF OUR FCST AREA WESTERN BERKS INTO THE POCONOS.
OVERALL: TEMPS ABOUT 7F WARMER THAN NORMAL AND THE ENTIRE MONTH OF
SEPTEMBER SHOULD AVERAGE ABOUT 1.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS.
FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...COOL POOL ALOFT SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH 500MB
TEMPS NEAR -15-16C. BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY BE OCCURRING WITH SUBTLE
LIFT FROM BOTH WEAK BUT DEEP ELY MOIST WINDS NORTH OF I78 AND THE
BACKDOOR COOL FRONT CONVERGENCE ZONE DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTHENING
NE FLOW NE OF THE BACKDOOR CF.
ADDITIONALLY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE COOLER BL AIR NE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TEMPS ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL.
FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE UPPER LOW AND WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE EXITING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME SCT SHOWERS...MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY. WE HAVE RETAINED THE CHC POPS FROM EARLIER. THE
POPS DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. TEMPERATURES WED
NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...MOSTLY LOW/MID 70S.
WED NIGHT THRU FRI MORNING...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAYTIME PERIODS AND MOSTLY CLR OVERNIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
AGAIN...NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
FRI AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
CONSISTENT WITH A 6 HR OR SO WINDOW OF QPF CENTERED AROUND FRI
EVENING. WE HAVE UPPER THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE EVENING PERIOD
WITH THE EXTRA CONFID IN MULTIPLE/CONSISTENT TRENDS. PROBABILITIES
FOR THUNDER LOOK LOW AT THIS POINT SO WE WILL HOLD ON THAT...SOME
GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA HOWEVER. TEMPS WILL DROP BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL SAT WITH DECENT COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED AFTER
FROPA.
SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
SUNDAY...BUT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY. LOWS BOTH SAT AND SUN
NIGHTS WILL FEATURE LOW 40S NORTH RANGING TO THE LOW 50S OVER THE
DELMARVA AND METRO PHILADELPHIA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...MOSTLY SCT- BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 TO 5000 FT FOR
ALL SITES WITH A POSSIBLE SHOWER VCNTY KRDG/KABE LATE IN THE DAY.
LIGHT SOUTH WIND TURNING E, REMAINING UNDER 10 KNOTS.
TONIGHT...WIND BECOMING NE AT 5-15 KT AND A DECK OF IFR ST/FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD FROM LONG ISLAND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING SW FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
N OF KPHL.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS WITH SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. E/NE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS.
THURSDAY...MORNING FOG WITH LOCAL LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MOSTLY
VFR. N WIND GUST 15 KT...BECOMING NE LATE.
FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS EAST...THEN VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ATTM.
TODAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AOB 3 FT TODAY WITH THE S-SW WIND
TURNING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST.
TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT LATE AND SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 4 FT BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FT
THROUGH 8AM WEDNESDAY AS I BELIEVE THE GFS WW3 GUIDANCE IS TOO
SOON TOO HIGH.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THRU WED NIGHT: NE FLOW WITH BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS AND SCA
CRITERIA EXPECTED ALONG THE NNJ COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD
TO THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA
HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FORMAL
HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS CONDITIONS WILL JUST MEET
LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH.
THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF A CONTINUING SCA FLAG SEAS ON THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA LATE.
FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AND BUILDING SEAS. SCA CONDITIONS
A GOOD BET BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS LATE.
SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EARLY WITH SCT SHOWERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISHING LATE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLINE
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
916 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014
.UPDATE...
RADAR SHOWING CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED LATER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGH. MUCH OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION
LOOKS TO BE RUNNING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS DRIFTED A
LITTLE SOUTH, AND IS SITTING JUST TO THE NORTH OF JUPITER. SO,
HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, AND ADDED SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEATHER THIS EVENING FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS,
AND PALM BEACH COAST. THE HRRR DOES CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS
SHOULD COME TO AN END OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014/
AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BECOMING ENHANCED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ATTM SO KEPT VCTS THROUGH 02Z FOR ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS EXCEPT
KPBI. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE SEEN JUST WEST OF THE EAST COAST
SITES AND MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE TERMINALS BUT SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW.
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AND
PUSHING INTO THE TERMINALS SO PREVAILED A GENERAL EASTERLY WIND AT
ALL EAST COAST SITES EXCEPT KTMB WHICH MAY BE JUST TOO FAR INLAND
TO SEE AN EASTERLY WIND.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014/
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)
THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AND INDICATES THE MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP TO 10 KFT COMBINED WITH THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY
AS THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS. MODEL PWAT GRADIENTS REFLECT
THIS POTENTIAL AND INDICATE VALUES RANGING FROM 1.62" ALONG THE
GULF COAST UP TO AROUND 2" ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS TIME...PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS THE EAST
COAST AREAS.
/AG
LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND AS NOW BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE SENDING THE
FIRST COLD FRONT OF THIS FALL SEASON ACROSS SOUTH FL SATURDAY NIGHT
AND OFF OUR COAST SUNDAY MORNING. GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SUPPORTING THIS
FROPA IDEA AS WELL...WITH THE AVERAGE OF THE MEMBERS A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW THE OPERATIONAL GFS MOS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
THIS...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST COOLER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
WOULD BE A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE FROM THE SULTRY HIGH DEWPOINTS
WE`VE FELT SINCE MAY...WELL INTO THE 70S. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S ON A NICE NORTHERLY BREEZE. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN THE LOWER-MID 80S. LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 60S INTERIOR AND GULF COAST BOTH SAT AND
SUN NIGHT...AND LOWER 70S EAST COAST METRO WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY...LETTING US KNOW THAT IT IS INDEED FALL.
THIS IS PRETTY EARLY IN THE SEASON FOR A COLD FRONT, BUT THE PATTERN
OF AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS DOES NOT SEEM TO
WANT TO LET GO AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF EVEN
AFTER TEMPORARY FLOW CHANGES. GIVEN THIS, AN EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT
ISN`T SHOCKING...AND IN FACT THE LONGER RANGE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AS WE ENTER MID OCTOBER. COULD THIS BE THE BEGINNING OF A
PARADE OF COLD FRONTS? TOO EARLY TO SAY, BUT I`M INCLINED TO BELIEVE
SO GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCKED SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
/GREGORIA
MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS CONTINUING. THE FIRST STRONG COLD FRONT OF
THE FALL SEASON IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH IN ITS
WAKE ON SUNDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTH, ESPECIALLY OFF THE PALM BEACH COAST.
/AG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 88 76 86 / 30 30 20 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 88 77 87 / 20 50 20 50
MIAMI 77 89 76 87 / 20 60 20 50
NAPLES 78 86 76 86 / 20 20 0 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....57/DG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
825 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014
.UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
CARVING OUT A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS/UPPER MIDWEST BEFORE THE FLOW RIDGES WELL NORTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA. SOUTH OF THIS MAIN FLOW WE FIND AN UPPER LOW
MIGRATING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW FURTHER
SOUTH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. UPPER LEVELS PER WV IMAGERY ARE ON THE
DRY SIDE OVER THE FL PENINSULA THIS EVENING. THE MORNING KTBW
SOUNDING PROFILE SAMPLED THIS DRY LAYER ABOVE 500MB VERY WELL AND
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS THE DEPTH OF THE DRIER AIR INCREASED
DURING THE DAY AND WAS PART OF THE REASON WEDNESDAY SAW
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS RAINFALL COVERAGE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE.
AS OF 00Z...STILL SEEING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF THE
I-4 CORRIDOR...BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DISSIPATING DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. AFTER THESE STORMS
ARE GONE...WILL ANTICIPATE A DRY AND SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
THURSDAY WILL SIMILAR DAY WITH LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN WAS
SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEKEND. GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ALLOWING
SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH COASTS. THIS SETUP SUGGESTS THE BEST
SHOWER COVERAGE ON THURSDAY WILL BE INLAND FROM I-75...AND MAINLY
AFTER 2-3PM.
&&
.AVIATION...
THE LAST OF THE AFTERNOON SCT SHOWERS ARE DIMINISHING WITH THE
SETTING SUN THIS EVENING AND ANTICIPATE A GENERAL DRY OVERNIGHT WITH
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LATE AT NIGHT
WILL NEED TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY LOWER CLOUDS THAT COULD
BRIEFLY DROP KTPA/KPIE/KLAL DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS
MVFR OCCURRENCE IS NOT HIGH...AND HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT FOR THE
CURRENT TAF PACKAGE. ANY LOWER CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF EARLY ON
THURSDAY WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AWAY FROM ANY SCT
AFTERNOON STORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL DISSIPATE
TODAY. ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FROM
THE COASTAL WATERS INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS BOUNDARY
DISSIPATES...WINDS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL OCCUR EARLY MORNING
THEN TRANSITIONING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH A
DECREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THERE WILL STILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN AND AROUND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 74 88 74 89 / 10 30 10 30
FMY 75 91 75 90 / 20 30 10 30
GIF 73 91 72 90 / 20 40 20 40
SRQ 73 87 73 88 / 10 30 10 30
BKV 68 89 70 89 / 20 40 10 30
SPG 75 89 77 89 / 10 30 10 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...MROCZKA
MARINE...MCKAUGHAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1041 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY TOWARD DAYBREAK AS
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SHIFTS EASTWARD AND A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR CALM. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARDS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING NORMALLY COLDER AREAS.
NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT LOWS
OVERNIGHT AROUND 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...LASTING INTO THE EARLY PART OF THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
UPSTATE...BUT EXPECTING THE CWA TO REMAIN DRY DURING THE THURSDAY
NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AS FOR FRIDAY...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOISTURE
INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE PASSAGE. SHOWERS...WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ARE EXPECTED AT SOME POINT THROUGH THE DAY
AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME STRONGER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DURING
THAT TIME. AS FOR THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE...TIMING STILL A
LITTLE BIT OF AN ISSUE...WITH THE GFS BEING A LITTLE FASTER WITH
THE MOVEMENT THAN THE NAM. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THEN DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS
THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY MAY BE
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS AS IF THE DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE ABLE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONGER
TERM PERIOD. UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION
SHOULD MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE INDICATING
THAT WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE COOLEST TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST SO FAR THIS SEASON.
READINGS WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WIND WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT KAGS AND KOGB. ALREADY SEEING A
DECLINE IN VSBY AT KAGS. THE RAP AND NAM MODELS INDICATED A LOW
LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT...THEREBY LIMITING FOG. THE HRRR SHOWED MVFR FOG
AROUND SUNRISE.
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST PATCHY MVFR FOG DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE AS THE
NOCTURNAL JET WEAKENS. HAVE INDICATED MVFR/IFR FOG AT KAGS/KOGB
THROUGH 13Z. FORECASTED MVFR FOG AT KCAE/KCUB/DNL AROUND SUNRISE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 13Z. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS 4 KFT TO 6 KFT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS COULD BRING
RESTRICTIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. POST FRONTAL GUSTY WINDS COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
829 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY TOWARD DAYBREAK AS
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SHIFTS EASTWARD AND A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR CALM. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARDS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING NORMALLY COLDER AREAS.
NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT LOWS
OVERNIGHT AROUND 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...LASTING INTO THE EARLY PART OF THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
UPSTATE...BUT EXPECTING THE CWA TO REMAIN DRY DURING THE THURSDAY
NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AS FOR FRIDAY...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOISTURE
INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE PASSAGE. SHOWERS...WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ARE EXPECTED AT SOME POINT THROUGH THE DAY
AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME STRONGER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DURING
THAT TIME. AS FOR THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE...TIMING STILL A
LITTLE BIT OF AN ISSUE...WITH THE GFS BEING A LITTLE FASTER WITH
THE MOVEMENT THAN THE NAM. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THEN DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS
THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY MAY BE
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS AS IF THE DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE ABLE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONGER
TERM PERIOD. UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION
SHOULD MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE INDICATING
THAT WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE COOLEST TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST SO FAR THIS SEASON.
READINGS WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WIND WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS AFTER 06Z...PARTICULARLY AT KAGS AND KOGB.
THE RAP AND NAM MODELS INDICATED A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT...THEREBY LIMITING FOG. THE HRRR SHOWED MVFR FOG AROUND
SUNRISE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST PATCHY MVFR FOG DEVELOP JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE AS THE NOCTURNAL JET WEAKENS. HAVE INDICATED VFR THROUGH 06Z
THEN MVFR/IFR FOG AT KAGS AFTER 09Z. HAVE FORECASTED MVFR FOG AT
KCAE/KCUB/KOGB/DNL AROUND SUNRISE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
AFTER 13Z. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS 4 KFT TO 6 KFT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS COULD BRING
RESTRICTIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. POST FRONTAL GUSTY WINDS COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
755 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARDS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
IN LOW LYING NORMALLY COLDER AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT FALLING TO
AROUND 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...LASTING INTO THE EARLY PART OF THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
UPSTATE...BUT EXPECTING THE CWA TO REMAIN DRY DURING THE THURSDAY
NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AS FOR FRIDAY...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOISTURE
INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE PASSAGE. SHOWERS...WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ARE EXPECTED AT SOME POINT THROUGH THE DAY
AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME STRONGER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DURING
THAT TIME. AS FOR THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE...TIMING STILL A
LITTLE BIT OF AN ISSUE...WITH THE GFS BEING A LITTLE FASTER WITH
THE MOVEMENT THAN THE NAM. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THEN DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS
THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY MAY BE
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS AS IF THE DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE ABLE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONGER
TERM PERIOD. UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION
SHOULD MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE INDICATING
THAT WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE COOLEST TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST SO FAR THIS SEASON.
READINGS WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WIND WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS AFTER 06Z...PARTICULARLY AT KAGS AND KOGB.
THE RAP AND NAM MODELS INDICATED A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT...THEREBY LIMITING FOG. THE HRRR SHOWED MVFR FOG AROUND
SUNRISE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST PATCHY MVFR FOG DEVELOP JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE AS THE NOCTURNAL JET WEAKENS. HAVE INDICATED VFR THROUGH 06Z
THEN MVFR/IFR FOG AT KAGS AFTER 09Z. HAVE FORECASTED MVFR FOG AT
KCAE/KCUB/KOGB/DNL AROUND SUNRISE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
AFTER 13Z. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS 4 KFT TO 6 KFT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS COULD BRING
RESTRICTIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. POST FRONTAL GUSTY WINDS COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
255 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
238 PM CDT
PLENTY TO KEEP US BUSY ON THE FORECAST DESK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
CONCERNS BEING CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY RAIN
AND THUNDER POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
THEN FINALLY MUCH COOLER AIR AND SHOWER CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
TONIGHT...
THIS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING 20 TO 30 DEGREES COLDER
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THAN YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS KEPT THE
INVERSION STRONG ESPECIALLY IN LAKE-BORDERING COUNTIES AND STRATUS
HAS ACCORDINGLY BEEN SLOW TO DEPART. SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEAKEN THAT FLOW BUT
ALSO ALLOWING FOR THE INVERSION TO REMAIN AND EVEN STRENGTHEN.
CONFIDENCE IS OVERALL LOW ON SPECIFICS ON CLOUD COVER WITH THE
STRATUS BEING ONLY ABOUT 1000 FT THICK PER AMDAR DATA. WHILE THERE
MAY NOT BE THAT MUCH COVERAGE OF CLOUDS BY SUNDOWN...DO EXPECT
THEREAFTER TO SEE AN INCREASE ALONG WITH A WESTWARD EXPANSION. GIVEN
WHERE CLOUDS ARE NOW ON SATELLITE ALONG WITH A REASONABLE 4KM EMC
WRF SOLUTION OF COLUMN CONDENSATE...WOULD ENVISION CLOUDS TO BECOME
THE MOST WIDESPREAD ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. LATER TONIGHT
AS THE 850-925MB FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY...THE CLEARING LINE MAY CREEP
NORTHWARD. OBVIOUSLY TEMPERATURES WILL HINGE ON CLOUDS QUITE A BIT.
OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE WHERE LOWER 50S ARE
PROBABLE...40S ARE FORECAST BUT CLOUDS CLOUD DICTATE WHETHER NEAR 40
TO THE LOWER 50S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN IS SEEN UPSTREAM WITH MULTIPLE UPPER CYCLONES
AND TROUGHS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND CANADA AND INTO
THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. ONE WELL-DEFINED CYCLONE IS MOVING NEARLY DUE
NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. ITS MOIST CONVEYOR BELT AND
RAIN ENTERING WESTERN IA THIS AFTERNOON WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT BEGIN TO RE-ENHANCE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT DEEPER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE
TROUGH ENTERS THE PLAINS. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH WILL BE
MULTIPLE VORT MAXS...GIVING THIS A NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN INTO FRIDAY IS WHEN A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN
CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
SO AFTER A QUIET DAY WEDNESDAY WE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD CHANCES
OF RAIN EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDER
LAGS SOME AND BECOMES BETTER LATE IN THE NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY.
WHILE IT IS LIKELY THERE WILL BE AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS
IN THE REGION THURSDAY...THE MUCH BETTER SUPPORT IN UPPER
LIFT...DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND EVEN INSTABILITY ARRIVES
THURSDAY EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT ON THE SUITE OF GUIDANCE. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE CONSIDERING THE SLOWING TREND THAT HAS BEEN SEEN
OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS...SOMETHING ALMOST EXPECTED WITH SUCH
AN AMPLIFIED AND DEEPENING SYSTEM. SO HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MOST
AREAS THURSDAY AND DEFINITE THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS LIKELY MORE
FOCUSED PERIODS FOR THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE REFINED IN TIME.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN 18-24H WITH
THIS SYSTEM /AND MAYBE EVEN IN A MUCH SHORTER TIME/ FOR MOST OF THE
AREA DURING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTED BY CIPS AND GEFS
ANALOG COMPOSITES. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING BUT
NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD ISSUES. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO
LOOK TO BE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WHERE A SQUALL LINE IS FAVORED INTO
SOUTHERN IL GIVEN THE SYNOPTICS. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THIS...LIKELY MORE LOOSELY DEFINED...COULD CLIP OUR AREA...AS
MODERATE LOWER AND UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHIFT OVER THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OVERALL THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS LOW.
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THIS REMAINS A CHALLENGING PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT
MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WHICH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE FURTHER STRENGTHENED
BY MULTIPLE UPPER JET MAXS. AS THIS OCCURS...COOLER THAN NORMAL
LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL BE REPLENISHED. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...NAMELY
SHEARED BUT STILL EACH WITH LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE SUPPORTIVE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS...WILL BE SUPPORTED IN THIS PATTERN. IF THESE PASS
OVER THE AREA THEY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WET/CLOUDY/EVEN COOLER
WEATHER. HAVE TRENDED COOLER IN MULTIPLE PERIODS BUT CONFIDENCE IS
GENERALLY LOW ON SPECIFICS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PATCHY FROST MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST IN TIME DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON.
* MVFR CIGS THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS DOWNSTATE IL AND SOUTHERN IN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BROAD AREA OF STRATUS BEHIND WHICH HAS BEGUN TO
OVERTURN IN SOME AREAS ALLOWING SKIES TO SCATTER. THE CHICAGO
TERMINALS REMAIN SOCKED IN UNDER MVFR STRATUS HOWEVER WITH
MOISTURE FROM THE LAKE AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/SPRINKLES EXPECTED
TO KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE CHICAGO TERMINALS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK THROUGH THE
DAY...FROM N/NNE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO NORTHEAST MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. RFD IS EXPECTED TO SEE
SKIES SCATTER OUT FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
MVFR CIGS MAY SPREAD BACK OVERHEAD TONIGHT.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL WIND DIRECTION TRENDS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS STAYING NEAR 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE IN END TIME FOR MVFR WEDNESDAY.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
SOUTHEAST WINDS.
THURSDAY...TSRA AND MVFR LIKELY. SOUTH WINDS.
FRIDAY...LOW CHANCE SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY. GUSTY WEST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
215 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL
CONTINUE DRIFTING EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WEAKENS. WHILE WINDS ARE ABATING SOMEWHAT ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THE
NORTHERLY FETCH IS HOLDING WAVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
LAKE AT 4-6 FT OR HIGHER. TONIGHT THE RIDGE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL PASS OVER THE LAKE THEN PUSH TO THE
EASTERN LAKES THURSDAY. EXPECT A MORE SIGNIFICANT EASING OF THE
WAVES AS THIS OCCURS.
MEANWHILE...SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO VEER TO SOUTHEASTLERLY. THE FIRST LOW IN WESTERN NEBRASKA
WILL LIFT INTO MANITOBA WEDS THEN DEEPEN FURTHER AS IT CONTINUES
TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT IS THIS LOW THAT WILL
EJECT NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATER IN THE
WEEK. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT PASSES THROUGH WISCONSIN
FRIDAY THAN NORTH INTO ONTARIO ON FRIDAY. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS TO
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING LOW...WITH WINDS TO 30 KT
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE LOW ON THURSDAY WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME SURFACING
DUE TO THIS WESTERLY TRACK...BUT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY GALES THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE
WINDS ALOFT SHOW SUPPORT FOR GALES...THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW DEEP THE LOW WILL BE AND HOW FAR EAST IT WILL
BE DURING THIS PERIOD.
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WHICH SHOULD STILL BE STRENGTHENING
NORTH OF THE LAKE...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
GALES...THIS TIME WITH WEST WINDS. THE WIND SUPPORT ALOFT WOULD
SUGGEST JUST BORDERLINE GALE FORCE GUSTS...BUT IT WILL BE A PRETTY
STRONG FRONT AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER
MIXING. FOLLOWING THE FRONT A MODEST GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A CLIPPER-LIKE LOW FOR MONDAY. KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
255 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
A cold front had pushed into southern IL and northeast MO this
afternoon bringing cooler temperatures today. Meanwhile 1022 mb high
pressure north of the Great Lakes was nosing southward into IL and
combined with upper level ridge over IL had decrease the low clouds
by early afternoon leaving patches of stratocumulus clouds along
with a veil of cirrus clouds. Temps at mid afternoon ranged from the
mid 60s over Knox, Stark and Marshall counties where low clouds
still lingered, to upper 70s and lower 80s along and south of
highway 50 in southeast IL.
Upper level ridge axis near the MS river will shift east across IL
and into Indiana by Wed morning while surface high pressure ridge
extends into the Ohio river valley from the Great Lakes region. As
the ridge axis shifts east of IL, ene winds to veer se on Wed as
frontal boundary retreats back north as a warm front over central IL
Wed. Dry conditions expected to prevail through Wed morning with
fair skies. Patchy shallow/ground fog could develop during overnight
due to low level moisture trapped in a strong inversion, but drier
air advecting in today on ne winds with dewpoints slipping into the
upper 40s and lower 50s from I-74 ne to limit fog formation.
Southern and sw areas may have best chance of seeing patchy fog
where higher dewpoints in the upper 50s to around 60F closer to the
frontal boundary. Similar MAV/MET guidance lows tonight have trended
cooler and leaned in that direction for tonights lows in the upper
40s and lower 50s, with mid 50s from Jacksonville sw.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
Big changes on the horizon for Central and Southeast Illinois by the
end of the week as much colder air is expected to push southeast
into the Midwest. Energy in the form of a strong 500mb trough over
Alaska is expected to dive down the west coast of North America and
reinforce a developing longwave trough over the Central U.S. by late
Thursday.
In the meantime, the cold front that pushed through the area last
night is expected to retreat back toward the northeast ahead of the
initial trough developing currently over the Plains. Some questions
remain as to how fast and far the front will be able to push across
the area on Wednesday with the answer having major implications on the
high temperature forecast. The GFS suggests that progress should be
as far as I-74 while the NAM keeps temps below normal with the
boundary remaining sw of the area. The 00z ECMWF is somewhere in
between. SREF from 09z favors the warmer solution and will lean
toward a compromise of the GFS/MAV and the ECMWF.
As the mid-level trough deepens, with 130+ kt jet plunging into it,
on Wednesday Night and Thursday, scattered precip is expect to
develop across the Midwest. BUFkit model soundings suggest some
capping possibly through middle afternoon in the warm sector with
the NAM being the most unstable and loosing the cap by late
afternoon in SW forecast area. In addition the cold front
associated with the main trough is expected to enter western
Illinois during the evening. The speed of the front is fairly
consistent through the operational model suite and has been slowing
with each run set. There should be some reduction in instability as
the evening wears on but dynamics will likely be enough to keep
strong storms going well into the evening along and ahead of the
boundary. At this time it appears there may be some threat of hail
with the storms ahead of the line with straight-line winds being the
primary threat with the actual QLCS.
Much colder air is expected Friday with lingering clouds and showers
as 500mb temps approaching -30C are progged. Would not be surprised
to see near steady temperatures and brisk conditions. Models may
be underplaying winds as is often the case in these type of
situatuions. By Saturday morning 850 mb temps drop blo 0C in all
the operational suite. Clouds and winds should keep reduce the
threat of frost, but would expect at least a few wind protected
locations to have lows into the 30s.
Reinforcing shots of energy move through the trough over the weekend
and into next week. Timing of individual features are difficult
this far out and the models show generally cool and partly to mostly
cloudy conditions but varying timing and chances for precipitation.
Overall heights slowly build early next week, but will generally
reduce precip and introduce only gradual warming given the
uncertainty.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
Shallow layer of stratocumulus clouds 1-2k ft thick dissipating
rapidly over central IL by midday due to strong subsidence from
surface and upper level ridge over IL. Cloud bases lifted to 1500
ft and have recently scattered out over the central IL airports
past hour or two, most recently at western airports of PIA and
SPI. RAP and NAM curule does not show much redevelopment of
cumulus clouds this afternoon so will keep just scattered cumulus
clouds 2-4k ft. Shallow moisture layer will be trapped by strong
inversion overnight and lead to some fog development. For now have
introduced MVFR vsbys from 08-14Z, but could see locally lower
vsbys late tonight/early Wed morning especially at SPI and DEC
where dewpoints a few degrees higher. HRRR model shows stratus
clouds and some fog advecting westward from Lake MI across
northern IL with light east flow and these clouds to stay north of
central IL tonight. Scattered cumulus clouds 4-5k ft to appear
after 15Z/10 am Wed across central IL. NE winds near 10 kts this
afternoon to become light east after sunset and SE near 10 kts
after 15Z Tue as front in southern IL retreats back north across
central IL Wed.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Barker
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
217 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1110 AM CDT
HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GOING FORECAST...MAINLY IN
SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER AND
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING
HOLES DEVELOPING IN THE STRATUS DECK OVER INLAND AREAS DUE TO
DRIER AIR AND STILL RELATIVELY STRONG END OF SEPTEMBER SUN. THESE
AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH A
FEW UPPER 60S IN CENTRAL IL. NEAR THE LAKE...DESPITE SOME DRYING
...COOL NORTH-NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS WRINGING OUT
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES...WHICH GIVEN LITTLE
CHANGE IN CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO HAVE OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE MENTION
IN FAVORED LAKE EFFECT AREAS THROUGH THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM TO BETWEEN 55 AND 60 DEGREES DUE TO PERSISTENT
OVERCAST. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY TO UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR INLAND AREAS NEAR WI
BORDER...AS VISIBLE SATELLITE SUGGESTS STRATUS IS THICKER THERE
AND SOME AREAS INCLUDING RFD ARE STILL IN UPPER 40S AS OF THIS
WRITING.
RC
//PREV DISCUSSION...
332 AM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS
TODAY...AND THEN INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
COLD FRONT NOW SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW STRATUS
HAS MOVED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WHILE TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL
INTO THE 40S AND 50S UNDER A STEADY NORTHEAST WIND. WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS NOW EAST OF THE CWA EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY BUT WITH
THIS STRATUS LIKELY HANGING AROUND FOR SOME TIME THIS MORNING.
GUIDANCE APPEARING TO BE TOO QUICK SCATTERING OUT THESE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING AND TRYING TO INDICATE THERE WILL BE HOLES BY 12Z.
WITH THIS NOT A LIKELY SCENARIO HAVE GONE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH
TRENDS THIS MORNING AND DONT HAVE ANY REAL CLEARING UNTIL LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY OBSERVE A SCATTERING TREND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH AREAS NEAR THE LAKE HOLDING ONTO
THESE CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. DID LOWER HIGH TEMPS AS WELL AS
SLOWED TEMP TREND THIS MORNING...WITH IT POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS IN
FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA NOT MAKING IT OUT OF
THE 50S TODAY.
QUIET BUT COOL NIGHT TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS AND ANY
LINGERING CLOUD COVER COMING OFF THE LAKE PUSHES NORTH INTO
WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING...AND MOST LOCATIONS OBSERVING CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FAIRLY ENERGETIC VORT MAX CURRENTLY
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE NORTH INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE BRIEF TONIGHT AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EAST AND WE QUICKLY TRANSITION TOWARDS A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF WAA GOING INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MADE
MINIMAL CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AS
UNCERTAINTY WITH APPROACHING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD PLAY
INTO THE EXTENT OF WARMING THAT OCCURS.
THE BEST WAA/MOIST ADVECTION WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE WEST FOR MOST
OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT THIS WILL CHANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND
STRENGTHENING LLJ BECOMES ORIENTED TOWARDS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS
COINCIDING WITH FAIRLY ENERGETIC MID LEVEL FLOW...DEVELOPING
PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD BEGIN REACHING MOST LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AFTER THE MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME. DESPITE INCREASING
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INSTABILITY AXIS DOES APPEAR TO STAY
JUST TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH
THIS MAY BE THE CASE...STRENGTHENING LLJ COULD OFFSET ANY LACKING
INSTABILITY AND SO HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER WORDING OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA...WITH THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AREAS LIKELY
OBSERVING BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME AND DO FEEL THERE COULD BE SOME PERIODS
OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL...BUT THIS WONT LIKELY OCCUR UNTIL VERY
LATE IN THE NIGHT AND TOWARDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
BETTER AGREEMENT OBSERVED WITH VARYING MODELS THIS MORNING
REGARDING APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FEATURE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW SHOULD
LIFT RIGHT ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AREA INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN THURSDAY AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. CONTINUED LARGE SCALE SUPPORT DURING THIS PERIOD WILL ALLOW
FOR A WET DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. A SLOWER DEPARTING TREND WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND DID KEEP LIKELY WORDING LONGER INTO THE
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
DURING THIS TIME...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. SO AT THIS TIME...AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED
WITH ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT AM MORE CONCERNED WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY AS THE BEST
OVERALL MOIST ADVECTION OCCURS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON.
* MVFR CIGS THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS DOWNSTATE IL AND SOUTHERN IN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BROAD AREA OF STRATUS BEHIND WHICH HAS BEGUN TO
OVERTURN IN SOME AREAS ALLOWING SKIES TO SCATTER. THE CHICAGO
TERMINALS REMAIN SOCKED IN UNDER MVFR STRATUS HOWEVER WITH
MOISTURE FROM THE LAKE AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/SPRINKLES EXPECTED
TO KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE CHICAGO TERMINALS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK THROUGH THE
DAY...FROM N/NNE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO NORTHEAST MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. RFD IS EXPECTED TO SEE
SKIES SCATTER OUT FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
MVFR CIGS MAY SPREAD BACK OVERHEAD TONIGHT.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL WIND DIRECTION TRENDS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS STAYING NEAR 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE IN END TIME FOR MVFR WEDNESDAY.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
SOUTHEAST WINDS.
THURSDAY...TSRA AND MVFR LIKELY. SOUTH WINDS.
FRIDAY...LOW CHANCE SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY. GUSTY WEST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
215 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL
CONTINUE DRIFTING EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WEAKENS. WHILE WINDS ARE ABATING SOMEWHAT ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THE
NORTHERLY FETCH IS HOLDING WAVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
LAKE AT 4-6 FT OR HIGHER. TONIGHT THE RIDGE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL PASS OVER THE LAKE THEN PUSH TO THE
EASTERN LAKES THURSDAY. EXPECT A MORE SIGNIFICANT EASING OF THE
WAVES AS THIS OCCURS.
MEANWHILE...SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO VEER TO SOUTHEASTLERLY. THE FIRST LOW IN WESTERN NEBRASKA
WILL LIFT INTO MANITOBA WEDS THEN DEEPEN FURTHER AS IT CONTINUES
TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT IS THIS LOW THAT WILL
EJECT NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATER IN THE
WEEK. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT PASSES THROUGH WISCONSIN
FRIDAY THAN NORTH INTO ONTARIO ON FRIDAY. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS TO
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING LOW...WITH WINDS TO 30 KT
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE LOW ON THURSDAY WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME SURFACING
DUE TO THIS WESTERLY TRACK...BUT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY GALES THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE
WINDS ALOFT SHOW SUPPORT FOR GALES...THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW DEEP THE LOW WILL BE AND HOW FAR EAST IT WILL
BE DURING THIS PERIOD.
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WHICH SHOULD STILL BE STRENGTHENING
NORTH OF THE LAKE...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
GALES...THIS TIME WITH WEST WINDS. THE WIND SUPPORT ALOFT WOULD
SUGGEST JUST BORDERLINE GALE FORCE GUSTS...BUT IT WILL BE A PRETTY
STRONG FRONT AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER
MIXING. FOLLOWING THE FRONT A MODEST GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A CLIPPER-LIKE LOW FOR MONDAY. KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1254 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
Updated the forecast earlier this morning to have patchy fog into
midday along and south of a Quincy to Jacksonville to Taylorville
to Robinson line and locally dense this morning from Jacksonville
sw. Also adjusted cloud cover and highs today, with low clouds
getting into southeast IL as they slowly drift south toward
highway 50 from Flora to Olney to Lawrenceville. Cloud bases of
500-1500 ft and even less than 500 feet in southern counties where
fog is present. Pilot reports show cloud deck about 1-2k ft thick
and starting to break up in ne counties late this morning where
drier air has worked in on ne winds as dewpoints slipped into
upper 40s and lower 50s. Low clouds should continue to break up from
the ne and sw with skies becoming partly to mostly sunny during
the afternoon. Temps currently 55-60F except low to mid 60s se of
I-70 and Mount Carmel airport up to 72F and still enjoying sunny
skies. The cold front has pushed just south of CWA with ne winds
6-12 mph and low clouds blanketing much of CWA. Cold front to
weaken as it pushes into southern IL this afternoon/evening and
low clouds to decrease during the afternoon. Highs mostly in the
low to mid 70s over central IL, but to range from 65-70F from I-74
northeast, to the lower 80s along and south of highway 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
Short-term forecast concerns include potential for dense fog across
the southern KILX CWA, as well as, approaching deck of low clouds
across the north. Clear skies/light winds have once again led to
the development of fog early this morning, particularly from the Saint
Louis area eastward across southern Illinois. HRRR shows fog
becoming dense across this area over the next few hours before
dissipating after 8am. So far the fog has not become widespread or
dense, but based on forecast soundings and the HRRR, have included
patchy dense fog south of I-70. Have also issued a Special Weather
Statement to highlight the low visbys.
07z/2am surface analysis shows cold front settling southward into
central Illinois, with a widespread area of low clouds noted to the
north of the boundary across the Great Lakes into north-central
Illinois. Latest IR satellite imagery shows leading edge of clouds
along the I-74 corridor. Main questions today will be how far south
these clouds will push and whether or not they will clear out this
afternoon. Satellite timing tools suggest the clouds will reach a
Rushville to Mattoon line by daybreak, but additional southward
progress appears unlikely as frontal boundary stalls. Will
therefore go with a cloudy forecast across the northern two-thirds
of the CWA this morning, with mostly sunny skies across the far
south. Despite continued northeasterly flow behind the front,
forecast soundings indicate a gradual dissipation of low-level
moisture as the day progresses. Have gone with decreasing clouds
through the afternoon accordingly. Due to the cloud cover and shift
in wind direction, temps will be quite a bit cooler today than in
recent days, with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 60s
along/north of I-74 to around 80 far south.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
Winds will veer to the southeast on Wednesday in response to an
approaching upper wave and its associated cold front. As a result,
temperatures will rise back into the upper 70s and lower 80s. As a
deep upper trough slowly approaches from the west, surface low
pressure is expected to develop over the Southern Plains on
Wednesday then lift northward into the Great Lakes by Thursday
night. Warm-advection showers/thunder will develop ahead of this
system Wednesday night: however, all model guidance keeps any precip
focused mainly across the western half of the CWA. Given this
slowing trend, have removed PoPs for all locations along/east of a
Paris to Effingham line. Further west, will go with likely PoPs
across the Illinois River Valley after midnight. As surface low
deepens and tracks just west of the area on Thursday, strong S/SW
flow will provide one more very warm day with highs in the upper
70s/lower 80s. Showers and thunderstorms will develop in advance of
a slowly approaching cold front, mainly focused across the west.
With strong upper dynamics in place and increasing amounts of
moisture flowing northward from the Gulf of Mexico, a few strong to
severe thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon across
west-central Illinois. Once low lifts into the Great Lakes, front
will get a solid push eastward by Thursday evening. Will go with
categorical PoPs across the board as the boundary interacts with a
moist and moderately unstable environment.
Cold front will push into Indiana by early Friday morning, with
perhaps a few lingering showers across the Wabash River Valley.
Main weather story late in the week will be the sharply cooler
conditions. 850mb temps are progged to drop into the 0 to -2C range
by Saturday morning, supporting daytime highs only in the lower
to middle 60s and overnight lows in the lower 40s this weekend.
Airmass will slowly moderate by early next week, with temperatures
climbing back to around 70 by Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
Shallow layer of stratocumulus clouds 1-2k ft thick dissipating
rapidly over central IL by midday due to strong subsidence from
surface and upper level ridge over IL. Cloud bases lifted to 1500
ft and have recently scattered out over the central IL airports
past hour or two, most recently at western airports of PIA and
SPI. RAP and NAM curule does not show much redevelopment of
cumulus clouds this afternoon so will keep just scattered cumulus
clouds 2-4k ft. Shallow moisture layer will be trapped by strong
inversion overnight and lead to some fog development. For now have
introduced MVFR vsbys from 08-14Z, but could see locally lower
vsbys late tonight/early Wed morning especially at SPI and DEC
where dewpoints a few degrees higher. HRRR model shows stratus
clouds and some fog advecting westward from Lake MI across
northern IL with light east flow and these clouds to stay north of
central IL tonight. Scattered cumulus clouds 4-5k ft to appear
after 15Z/10 am Wed across central IL. NE winds near 10 kts this
afternoon to become light east after sunset and SE near 10 kts
after 15Z Tue as front in southern IL retreats back north across
central IL Wed.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1104 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
332 AM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS
TODAY...AND THEN INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
COLD FRONT NOW SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW STRATUS
HAS MOVED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WHILE TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL
INTO THE 40S AND 50S UNDER A STEADY NORTHEAST WIND. WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS NOW EAST OF THE CWA EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY BUT WITH
THIS STRATUS LIKELY HANGING AROUND FOR SOME TIME THIS MORNING.
GUIDANCE APPEARING TO BE TOO QUICK SCATTERING OUT THESE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING AND TRYING TO INDICATE THERE WILL BE HOLES BY 12Z.
WITH THIS NOT A LIKELY SCENARIO HAVE GONE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH
TRENDS THIS MORNING AND DONT HAVE ANY REAL CLEARING UNTIL LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY OBSERVE A SCATTERING TREND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH AREAS NEAR THE LAKE HOLDING ONTO
THESE CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. DID LOWER HIGH TEMPS AS WELL AS
SLOWED TEMP TREND THIS MORNING...WITH IT POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS IN
FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA NOT MAKING IT OUT OF
THE 50S TODAY.
QUIET BUT COOL NIGHT TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS AND ANY
LINGERING CLOUD COVER COMING OFF THE LAKE PUSHES NORTH INTO
WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING...AND MOST LOCATIONS OBSERVING CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FAIRLY ENERGETIC VORT MAX CURRENTLY
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE NORTH INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE BRIEF TONIGHT AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EAST AND WE QUICKLY TRANSITION TOWARDS A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF WAA GOING INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MADE
MINIMAL CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AS
UNCERTAINTY WITH APPROACHING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD PLAY
INTO THE EXTENT OF WARMING THAT OCCURS.
THE BEST WAA/MOIST ADVECTION WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE WEST FOR MOST
OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT THIS WILL CHANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND
STRENGTHENING LLJ BECOMES ORIENTED TOWARDS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS
COINCIDING WITH FAIRLY ENERGETIC MID LEVEL FLOW...DEVELOPING
PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD BEGIN REACHING MOST LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AFTER THE MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME. DESPITE INCREASING
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INSTABILITY AXIS DOES APPEAR TO STAY
JUST TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH
THIS MAY BE THE CASE...STRENGTHENING LLJ COULD OFFSET ANY LACKING
INSTABILITY AND SO HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER WORDING OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA...WITH THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AREAS LIKELY
OBSERVING BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME AND DO FEEL THERE COULD BE SOME PERIODS
OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL...BUT THIS WONT LIKELY OCCUR UNTIL VERY
LATE IN THE NIGHT AND TOWARDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
BETTER AGREEMENT OBSERVED WITH VARYING MODELS THIS MORNING
REGARDING APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FEATURE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW SHOULD
LIFT RIGHT ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AREA INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN THURSDAY AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. CONTINUED LARGE SCALE SUPPORT DURING THIS PERIOD WILL ALLOW
FOR A WET DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. A SLOWER DEPARTING TREND WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND DID KEEP LIKELY WORDING LONGER INTO THE
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
DURING THIS TIME...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. SO AT THIS TIME...AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED
WITH ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT AM MORE CONCERNED WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY AS THE BEST
OVERALL MOIST ADVECTION OCCURS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* PERIODIC LAKE EFFECT SPRINKLES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
* MVFR CIGS THROUGH REST OF TODAY.
* N TO NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT TODAY.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LARGE AREA OF 1000-1500 FT CIGS IS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF LAKE EFFECT LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE OFFSHORE OF KMKE SOUTHWARD TO ORD/MDW. THIS IS
PRODUCING IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBY. WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS
BAND HAVE TURNED NNW WITH NNE WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE BAND.
EXPECT THIS BAND TO SLOWLY PIVOT EASTWARD INTO MID MORNING BUT IN
THE MEANTIME ORD/MDW WILL LIKELY BE IN AND OUT OF IFR CIGS AND
MVFR VSBY IN DRIZZLE. ONCE THE BAND SHIFTS EAST OR EVEN DISSIPATES
WINDS SHOULD TURN NNE THEN FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 10 KT.
ONCE THE IFR IMPROVES MVFR WILL PERSIST BUT SHOULD SEE SCATTERING
TOWARDS RFD/DPA THIS AFTERNOON WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKE LIKELY
KEEPING MVFR CIGS AT ORD/MDW/GYY THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH
SCATTERING IS POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY
THIS EVENING WHICH WILL PUSH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTHWEST. THERE MAY BE SOME EXPANSION OF
COVERAGE AS THIS OCCURS SO RFD/DPA MAY GET BACK INTO MVFR BUT WILL
KEEP COVERAGE SCATTERED FOR NOW. DO NOT HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CIG EVOLUTION TONIGHT AND MAY BE HOLDING
ONTO THEM TOO LONG. SKIES DO LOOK TO HAVE SCATTERED OR LESS
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SLOWLY RISING MVFR CIGS REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG THEY MAY LAST.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT SPEEDS
WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
SOUTHEAST WINDS.
THURSDAY...TSRA AND MVFR LIKELY. SOUTH WINDS.
FRIDAY...LOW CHANCE SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY. GUSTY WEST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
257 AM CDT
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN SPEED INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TRACKS
NORTH TO MANITOBA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STEADY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WHEN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN VERY
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LOW TRACKING NORTHWEST OF THE LAKE AND
DEEPENING WHILE DOING SO. WHILE SPECIFICS ARE STILL UNDETERMINED
THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE
LAKE...STARTING OUT SOUTHERLY THEN TURNING WESTERLY AS A COLD
FRONT PASSES THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL OTHER MORE SUBTLE SURFACE
TROUGHS MAY CROSS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN WEST AND NORTHWEST. A PERIOD OF GALES STILL LOOKS
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN FRONT AS COLDER
AIR SPREADS IN. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE GOING INTO SUNDAY.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1040 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
Updated the forecast earlier this morning to have patchy fog into
midday along and south of a Quincy to Jacksonville to Taylorville
to Robinson line and locally dense this morning from Jacksonville
sw. Also adjusted cloud cover and highs today, with low clouds
getting into southeast IL as they slowly drift south toward
highway 50 from Flora to Olney to Lawrenceville. Cloud bases of
500-1500 ft and even less than 500 feet in southern counties where
fog is present. Pilot reports show cloud deck about 1-2k ft thick
and starting to break up in ne counties late this morning where
drier air has worked in on ne winds as dewpoints slipped into
upper 40s and lower 50s. Low clouds should continue to break up from
the ne and sw with skies becoming partly to mostly sunny during
the afternoon. Temps currently 55-60F except low to mid 60s se of
I-70 and Mount Carmel airport up to 72F and still enjoying sunny
skies. The cold front has pushed just south of CWA with ne winds
6-12 mph and low clouds blanketing much of CWA. Cold front to
weaken as it pushes into southern IL this afternoon/evening and
low clouds to decrease during the afternoon. Highs mostly in the
low to mid 70s over central IL, but to range from 65-70F from I-74
northeast, to the lower 80s along and south of highway 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
Short-term forecast concerns include potential for dense fog across
the southern KILX CWA, as well as, approaching deck of low clouds
across the north. Clear skies/light winds have once again led to
the development of fog early this morning, particularly from the Saint
Louis area eastward across southern Illinois. HRRR shows fog
becoming dense across this area over the next few hours before
dissipating after 8am. So far the fog has not become widespread or
dense, but based on forecast soundings and the HRRR, have included
patchy dense fog south of I-70. Have also issued a Special Weather
Statement to highlight the low visbys.
07z/2am surface analysis shows cold front settling southward into
central Illinois, with a widespread area of low clouds noted to the
north of the boundary across the Great Lakes into north-central
Illinois. Latest IR satellite imagery shows leading edge of clouds
along the I-74 corridor. Main questions today will be how far south
these clouds will push and whether or not they will clear out this
afternoon. Satellite timing tools suggest the clouds will reach a
Rushville to Mattoon line by daybreak, but additional southward
progress appears unlikely as frontal boundary stalls. Will
therefore go with a cloudy forecast across the northern two-thirds
of the CWA this morning, with mostly sunny skies across the far
south. Despite continued northeasterly flow behind the front,
forecast soundings indicate a gradual dissipation of low-level
moisture as the day progresses. Have gone with decreasing clouds
through the afternoon accordingly. Due to the cloud cover and shift
in wind direction, temps will be quite a bit cooler today than in
recent days, with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 60s
along/north of I-74 to around 80 far south.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
Winds will veer to the southeast on Wednesday in response to an
approaching upper wave and its associated cold front. As a result,
temperatures will rise back into the upper 70s and lower 80s. As a
deep upper trough slowly approaches from the west, surface low
pressure is expected to develop over the Southern Plains on
Wednesday then lift northward into the Great Lakes by Thursday
night. Warm-advection showers/thunder will develop ahead of this
system Wednesday night: however, all model guidance keeps any precip
focused mainly across the western half of the CWA. Given this
slowing trend, have removed PoPs for all locations along/east of a
Paris to Effingham line. Further west, will go with likely PoPs
across the Illinois River Valley after midnight. As surface low
deepens and tracks just west of the area on Thursday, strong S/SW
flow will provide one more very warm day with highs in the upper
70s/lower 80s. Showers and thunderstorms will develop in advance of
a slowly approaching cold front, mainly focused across the west.
With strong upper dynamics in place and increasing amounts of
moisture flowing northward from the Gulf of Mexico, a few strong to
severe thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon across
west-central Illinois. Once low lifts into the Great Lakes, front
will get a solid push eastward by Thursday evening. Will go with
categorical PoPs across the board as the boundary interacts with a
moist and moderately unstable environment.
Cold front will push into Indiana by early Friday morning, with
perhaps a few lingering showers across the Wabash River Valley.
Main weather story late in the week will be the sharply cooler
conditions. 850mb temps are progged to drop into the 0 to -2C range
by Saturday morning, supporting daytime highs only in the lower
to middle 60s and overnight lows in the lower 40s this weekend.
Airmass will slowly moderate by early next week, with temperatures
climbing back to around 70 by Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
The cold front has pushed south of all TAF sites, with northeast
winds around 10-14kt in its wake. A short period of LIFR
fog and ceilings have developed along the leading edge of the
clouds at SPI and DEC with 200FT ceilings and 1/2sm FG. Behind the
front, IFR conditions with ceilings of 400-800 ft and p6sm vis have
developed within 2 hours of FROPA.
Based on the latest observation trends, ceilings should improve
to the MVFR by late morning. The main concern is how soon the
clouds will erode to VFR, with all the low level moisture trapped
under a developing subsidence inversion. Latest guidance off the
NAM-WRF and HRRR continues to suggest we will see some breaks
develop by late morning or early afternoon. Will continue with
the previous trends in the TAFs in scattering out the lower cigs
by afternoon with some broken VFR cigs into the late afternoon
hours. Southern TAFS of DEC and SPI should see VFR the soonest,
and possibly as early as 11 am or Noon.
The gusty northeast winds immediately behind the front will
settle out in the 8 to 14 kt range for much of the day. Mixing
heights will be limited by the low ceiling heights, so gusts
should not get to 20kt at any point.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
839 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
332 AM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS
TODAY...AND THEN INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
COLD FRONT NOW SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW STRATUS
HAS MOVED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WHILE TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL
INTO THE 40S AND 50S UNDER A STEADY NORTHEAST WIND. WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS NOW EAST OF THE CWA EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY BUT WITH
THIS STRATUS LIKELY HANGING AROUND FOR SOME TIME THIS MORNING.
GUIDANCE APPEARING TO BE TOO QUICK SCATTERING OUT THESE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING AND TRYING TO INDICATE THERE WILL BE HOLES BY 12Z.
WITH THIS NOT A LIKELY SCENARIO HAVE GONE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH
TRENDS THIS MORNING AND DONT HAVE ANY REAL CLEARING UNTIL LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY OBSERVE A SCATTERING TREND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH AREAS NEAR THE LAKE HOLDING ONTO
THESE CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. DID LOWER HIGH TEMPS AS WELL AS
SLOWED TEMP TREND THIS MORNING...WITH IT POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS IN
FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA NOT MAKING IT OUT OF
THE 50S TODAY.
QUIET BUT COOL NIGHT TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS AND ANY
LINGERING CLOUD COVER COMING OFF THE LAKE PUSHES NORTH INTO
WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING...AND MOST LOCATIONS OBSERVING CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FAIRLY ENERGETIC VORT MAX CURRENTLY
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE NORTH INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE BRIEF TONIGHT AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EAST AND WE QUICKLY TRANSITION TOWARDS A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF WAA GOING INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MADE
MINIMAL CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AS
UNCERTAINTY WITH APPROACHING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD PLAY
INTO THE EXTENT OF WARMING THAT OCCURS.
THE BEST WAA/MOIST ADVECTION WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE WEST FOR MOST
OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT THIS WILL CHANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND
STRENGTHENING LLJ BECOMES ORIENTED TOWARDS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS
COINCIDING WITH FAIRLY ENERGETIC MID LEVEL FLOW...DEVELOPING
PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD BEGIN REACHING MOST LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AFTER THE MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME. DESPITE INCREASING
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INSTABILITY AXIS DOES APPEAR TO STAY
JUST TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH
THIS MAY BE THE CASE...STRENGTHENING LLJ COULD OFFSET ANY LACKING
INSTABILITY AND SO HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER WORDING OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA...WITH THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AREAS LIKELY
OBSERVING BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME AND DO FEEL THERE COULD BE SOME PERIODS
OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL...BUT THIS WONT LIKELY OCCUR UNTIL VERY
LATE IN THE NIGHT AND TOWARDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
BETTER AGREEMENT OBSERVED WITH VARYING MODELS THIS MORNING
REGARDING APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FEATURE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW SHOULD
LIFT RIGHT ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AREA INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN THURSDAY AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. CONTINUED LARGE SCALE SUPPORT DURING THIS PERIOD WILL ALLOW
FOR A WET DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. A SLOWER DEPARTING TREND WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND DID KEEP LIKELY WORDING LONGER INTO THE
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
DURING THIS TIME...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. SO AT THIS TIME...AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED
WITH ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT AM MORE CONCERNED WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY AS THE BEST
OVERALL MOIST ADVECTION OCCURS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* PERIODIC IFR CIGS IN LAKE EFFECT CLOUD/DRIZZLE BAND FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.
* CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT
REMAINING MVFR...POSSIBLY THROUGH THE EVENING. PERIOD OF
SCATTERING POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
* N WINDS WITH LAKE EFFECT BAND NEXT FEW HOURS BUT SHIFT TO NNE
EXPECTED BY MID/LATE MORNING...GOING FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT.
MDB/BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LARGE AREA OF 1000-1500 FT CIGS IS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF LAKE EFFECT LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE OFFSHORE OF KMKE SOUTHWARD TO ORD/MDW. THIS IS
PRODUCING IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBY. WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS
BAND HAVE TURNED NNW WITH NNE WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE BAND.
EXPECT THIS BAND TO SLOWLY PIVOT EASTWARD INTO MID MORNING BUT IN
THE MEANTIME ORD/MDW WILL LIKELY BE IN AND OUT OF IFR CIGS AND
MVFR VSBY IN DRIZZLE. ONCE THE BAND SHIFTS EAST OR EVEN DISSIPATES
WINDS SHOULD TURN NNE THEN FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 10 KT.
ONCE THE IFR IMPROVES MVFR WILL PERSIST BUT SHOULD SEE SCATTERING
TOWARDS RFD/DPA THIS AFTERNOON WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKE LIKELY
KEEPING MVFR CIGS AT ORD/MDW/GYY THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH
SCATTERING IS POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY
THIS EVENING WHICH WILL PUSH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTHWEST. THERE MAY BE SOME EXPANSION OF
COVERAGE AS THIS OCCURS SO RFD/DPA MAY GET BACK INTO MVFR BUT WILL
KEEP COVERAGE SCATTERED FOR NOW. DO NOT HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CIG EVOLUTION TONIGHT AND MAY BE HOLDING
ONTO THEM TOO LONG. SKIES DO LOOK TO HAVE SCATTERED OR LESS
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST PERIODIC IFR NEXT FEW HOURS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN END TIME OF IFR.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY WITH BASES RISING
THROUGH AFTERNOON. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG THEY MAY LAST.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF SCATTERING THIS
AFTERNOON.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT SPEEDS
WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON.
MDB/BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
SOUTHEAST WINDS.
THURSDAY...TSRA AND MVFR LIKELY. SOUTH WINDS.
FRIDAY...LOW CHANCE SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY. GUSTY WEST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
257 AM CDT
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN SPEED INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TRACKS
NORTH TO MANITOBA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STEADY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WHEN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN VERY
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LOW TRACKING NORTHWEST OF THE LAKE AND
DEEPENING WHILE DOING SO. WHILE SPECIFICS ARE STILL UNDETERMINED
THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE
LAKE...STARTING OUT SOUTHERLY THEN TURNING WESTERLY AS A COLD
FRONT PASSES THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL OTHER MORE SUBTLE SURFACE
TROUGHS MAY CROSS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN WEST AND NORTHWEST. A PERIOD OF GALES STILL LOOKS
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN FRONT AS COLDER
AIR SPREADS IN. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE GOING INTO SUNDAY.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
702 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
Short-term forecast concerns include potential for dense fog across
the southern KILX CWA, as well as, approaching deck of low clouds
across the north. Clear skies/light winds have once again led to
the development of fog early this morning, particularly from the Saint
Louis area eastward across southern Illinois. HRRR shows fog
becoming dense across this area over the next few hours before
dissipating after 8am. So far the fog has not become widespread or
dense, but based on forecast soundings and the HRRR, have included
patchy dense fog south of I-70. Have also issued a Special Weather
Statement to highlight the low visbys.
07z/2am surface analysis shows cold front settling southward into
central Illinois, with a widespread area of low clouds noted to the
north of the boundary across the Great Lakes into north-central
Illinois. Latest IR satellite imagery shows leading edge of clouds
along the I-74 corridor. Main questions today will be how far south
these clouds will push and whether or not they will clear out this
afternoon. Satellite timing tools suggest the clouds will reach a
Rushville to Mattoon line by daybreak, but additional southward
progress appears unlikely as frontal boundary stalls. Will
therefore go with a cloudy forecast across the northern two-thirds
of the CWA this morning, with mostly sunny skies across the far
south. Despite continued northeasterly flow behind the front,
forecast soundings indicate a gradual dissipation of low-level
moisture as the day progresses. Have gone with decreasing clouds
through the afternoon accordingly. Due to the cloud cover and shift
in wind direction, temps will be quite a bit cooler today than in
recent days, with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 60s
along/north of I-74 to around 80 far south.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
Winds will veer to the southeast on Wednesday in response to an
approaching upper wave and its associated cold front. As a result,
temperatures will rise back into the upper 70s and lower 80s. As a
deep upper trough slowly approaches from the west, surface low
pressure is expected to develop over the Southern Plains on
Wednesday then lift northward into the Great Lakes by Thursday
night. Warm-advection showers/thunder will develop ahead of this
system Wednesday night: however, all model guidance keeps any precip
focused mainly across the western half of the CWA. Given this
slowing trend, have removed PoPs for all locations along/east of a
Paris to Effingham line. Further west, will go with likely PoPs
across the Illinois River Valley after midnight. As surface low
deepens and tracks just west of the area on Thursday, strong S/SW
flow will provide one more very warm day with highs in the upper
70s/lower 80s. Showers and thunderstorms will develop in advance of
a slowly approaching cold front, mainly focused across the west.
With strong upper dynamics in place and increasing amounts of
moisture flowing northward from the Gulf of Mexico, a few strong to
severe thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon across
west-central Illinois. Once low lifts into the Great Lakes, front
will get a solid push eastward by Thursday evening. Will go with
categorical PoPs across the board as the boundary interacts with a
moist and moderately unstable environment.
Cold front will push into Indiana by early Friday morning, with
perhaps a few lingering showers across the Wabash River Valley.
Main weather story late in the week will be the sharply cooler
conditions. 850mb temps are progged to drop into the 0 to -2C range
by Saturday morning, supporting daytime highs only in the lower
to middle 60s and overnight lows in the lower 40s this weekend.
Airmass will slowly moderate by early next week, with temperatures
climbing back to around 70 by Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
The cold front has pushed south of all TAF sites, with northeast
winds around 10-14kt in its wake. A short period of LIFR
fog and ceilings have developed along the leading edge of the
clouds at SPI and DEC with 200FT ceilings and 1/2sm FG. Behind the
front, IFR conditions with ceilings of 400-800 ft and p6sm vis have
developed within 2 hours of FROPA.
Based on the latest observation trends, ceilings should improve
to the MVFR by late morning. The main concern is how soon the
clouds will erode to VFR, with all the low level moisture trapped
under a developing subsidence inversion. Latest guidance off the
NAM-WRF and HRRR continues to suggest we will see some breaks
develop by late morning or early afternoon. Will continue with
the previous trends in the TAFs in scattering out the lower cigs
by afternoon with some broken VFR cigs into the late afternoon
hours. Southern TAFS of DEC and SPI should see VFR the soonest,
and possibly as early as 11 am or Noon.
The gusty northeast winds immediately behind the front will
settle out in the 8 to 14 kt range for much of the day. Mixing
heights will be limited by the low ceiling heights, so gusts
should not get to 20kt at any point.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
336 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
332 AM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS
TODAY...AND THEN INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
COLD FRONT NOW SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW STRATUS
HAS MOVED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WHILE TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL
INTO THE 40S AND 50S UNDER A STEADY NORTHEAST WIND. WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS NOW EAST OF THE CWA EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY BUT WITH
THIS STRATUS LIKELY HANGING AROUND FOR SOME TIME THIS MORNING.
GUIDANCE APPEARING TO BE TOO QUICK SCATTERING OUT THESE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING AND TRYING TO INDICATE THERE WILL BE HOLES BY 12Z.
WITH THIS NOT A LIKELY SCENARIO HAVE GONE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH
TRENDS THIS MORNING AND DONT HAVE ANY REAL CLEARING UNTIL LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY OBSERVE A SCATTERING TREND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH AREAS NEAR THE LAKE HOLDING ONTO
THESE CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. DID LOWER HIGH TEMPS AS WELL AS
SLOWED TEMP TREND THIS MORNING...WITH IT POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS IN
FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA NOT MAKING IT OUT OF
THE 50S TODAY.
QUIET BUT COOL NIGHT TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS AND ANY
LINGERING CLOUD COVER COMING OFF THE LAKE PUSHES NORTH INTO
WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING...AND MOST LOCATIONS OBSERVING CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FAIRLY ENERGETIC VORT MAX CURRENTLY
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE NORTH INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE BRIEF TONIGHT AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EAST AND WE QUICKLY TRANSITION TOWARDS A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF WAA GOING INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MADE
MINIMAL CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AS
UNCERTAINTY WITH APPROACHING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD PLAY
INTO THE EXTENT OF WARMING THAT OCCURS.
THE BEST WAA/MOIST ADVECTION WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE WEST FOR MOST
OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT THIS WILL CHANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND
STRENGTHENING LLJ BECOMES ORIENTED TOWARDS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS
COINCIDING WITH FAIRLY ENERGETIC MID LEVEL FLOW...DEVELOPING
PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD BEGIN REACHING MOST LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AFTER THE MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME. DESPITE INCREASING
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INSTABILITY AXIS DOES APPEAR TO STAY
JUST TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH
THIS MAY BE THE CASE...STRENGTHENING LLJ COULD OFFSET ANY LACKING
INSTABILITY AND SO HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER WORDING OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA...WITH THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AREAS LIKELY
OBSERVING BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME AND DO FEEL THERE COULD BE SOME PERIODS
OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL...BUT THIS WONT LIKELY OCCUR UNTIL VERY
LATE IN THE NIGHT AND TOWARDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
BETTER AGREEMENT OBSERVED WITH VARYING MODELS THIS MORNING
REGARDING APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FEATURE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW SHOULD
LIFT RIGHT ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AREA INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN THURSDAY AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. CONTINUED LARGE SCALE SUPPORT DURING THIS PERIOD WILL ALLOW
FOR A WET DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. A SLOWER DEPARTING TREND WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND DID KEEP LIKELY WORDING LONGER INTO THE
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
DURING THIS TIME...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. SO AT THIS TIME...AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED
WITH ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT AM MORE CONCERNED WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY AS THE BEST
OVERALL MOIST ADVECTION OCCURS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* CIGS AROUND 1000 FT CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH
OCCASIONAL LOWERING TO 800-900 FT...ESPECIALLY AT ORD.
* MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH LIFTING
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
* NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR 10 KT
THIS AFTERNOON.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
LOW MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO BE SPREAD ACROSS THE THE TERMINALS AND
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. SOME PERIODIC LOWERING TO IFR WILL
LIKELY OCCUR BUT CIGS UPSTREAM HAVE IMPROVED SLIGHTLY IN SPOTS
LIKELY BECAUSE OF AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR. EXPECT THAT THE LOWEST
CIGS MAY BE OCCURRING NOW THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN MAY
START TO LIFT TOWARDS DAYBREAK...WITH STEADIER LIFTING THROUGH THE
MORNING. AM THINKING THAT RFD/DPA MAY SCATTER DURING THE AFTERNOON
AT SOME POINT WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKE KEEPING CLOUD COVER BROKEN AT
ORD/MDW/GYY THOUGH SOME SCATTERING COULD OCCUR. LOW LEVEL FLOW AT
CLOUD LEVEL TURNS SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING WHICH MAY PROMOTE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS PUSH IT FURTHER INLAND.
THEREFORE A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE AT DPA/RFD THIS
EVENING. WILL KEEP COVERAGE SCATTERED FOR NOW. NORTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY EASING THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND
GENERALLY BE NEAR 10 KT FOR THE MORNING/AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING
EAST THIS EVENING.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS HOVERING AROUND 1000 FT OVERNIGHT.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN OCCASIONAL LOWERING BELOW 1000
FT...ESPECIALLY AT ORD.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN BASES LIFTING DURING THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERING IS
POSSIBLE.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
THURSDAY...TSRA LIKELY...MVFR POSSIBLE. SOUTH WINDS TURNING
SOUTHWEST LATE.
FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA...MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY WEST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
257 AM CDT
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN SPEED INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TRACKS
NORTH TO MANITOBA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STEADY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WHEN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN VERY
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LOW TRACKING NORTHWEST OF THE LAKE AND
DEEPENING WHILE DOING SO. WHILE SPECIFICS ARE STILL UNDETERMINED
THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE
LAKE...STARTING OUT SOUTHERLY THEN TURNING WESTERLY AS A COLD
FRONT PASSES THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL OTHER MORE SUBTLE SURFACE
TROUGHS MAY CROSS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN WEST AND NORTHWEST. A PERIOD OF GALES STILL LOOKS
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN FRONT AS COLDER
AIR SPREADS IN. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE GOING INTO SUNDAY.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
313 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
Short-term forecast concerns include potential for dense fog across
the southern KILX CWA, as well as, approaching deck of low clouds
across the north. Clear skies/light winds have once again led to
the development of fog early this morning, particularly from the Saint
Louis area eastward across southern Illinois. HRRR shows fog
becoming dense across this area over the next few hours before
dissipating after 8am. So far the fog has not become widespread or
dense, but based on forecast soundings and the HRRR, have included
patchy dense fog south of I-70. Have also issued a Special Weather
Statement to highlight the low visbys.
07z/2am surface analysis shows cold front settling southward into
central Illinois, with a widespread area of low clouds noted to the
north of the boundary across the Great Lakes into north-central
Illinois. Latest IR satellite imagery shows leading edge of clouds
along the I-74 corridor. Main questions today will be how far south
these clouds will push and whether or not they will clear out this
afternoon. Satellite timing tools suggest the clouds will reach a
Rushville to Mattoon line by daybreak, but additional southward
progress appears unlikely as frontal boundary stalls. Will
therefore go with a cloudy forecast across the northern two-thirds
of the CWA this morning, with mostly sunny skies across the far
south. Despite continued northeasterly flow behind the front,
forecast soundings indicate a gradual dissipation of low-level
moisture as the day progresses. Have gone with decreasing clouds
through the afternoon accordingly. Due to the cloud cover and shift
in wind direction, temps will be quite a bit cooler today than in
recent days, with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 60s
along/north of I-74 to around 80 far south.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
Winds will veer to the southeast on Wednesday in response to an
approaching upper wave and its associated cold front. As a result,
temperatures will rise back into the upper 70s and lower 80s. As a
deep upper trough slowly approaches from the west, surface low
pressure is expected to develop over the Southern Plains on
Wednesday then lift northward into the Great Lakes by Thursday
night. Warm-advection showers/thunder will develop ahead of this
system Wednesday night: however, all model guidance keeps any precip
focused mainly across the western half of the CWA. Given this
slowing trend, have removed PoPs for all locations along/east of a
Paris to Effingham line. Further west, will go with likely PoPs
across the Illinois River Valley after midnight. As surface low
deepens and tracks just west of the area on Thursday, strong S/SW
flow will provide one more very warm day with highs in the upper
70s/lower 80s. Showers and thunderstorms will develop in advance of
a slowly approaching cold front, mainly focused across the west.
With strong upper dynamics in place and increasing amounts of
moisture flowing northward from the Gulf of Mexico, a few strong to
severe thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon across
west-central Illinois. Once low lifts into the Great Lakes, front
will get a solid push eastward by Thursday evening. Will go with
categorical PoPs across the board as the boundary interacts with a
moist and moderately unstable environment.
Cold front will push into Indiana by early Friday morning, with
perhaps a few lingering showers across the Wabash River Valley.
Main weather story late in the week will be the sharply cooler
conditions. 850mb temps are progged to drop into the 0 to -2C range
by Saturday morning, supporting daytime highs only in the lower
to middle 60s and overnight lows in the lower 40s this weekend.
Airmass will slowly moderate by early next week, with temperatures
climbing back to around 70 by Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
Cold front has just passed Pontiac and continues to make steady
progress south-southwest into our forecast area. Based on the
present movement, it appears it will push across PIA and BMI
between 05-06z with our southern TAF sites seeing FROPA in the
08z-10z time frame. Winds initially after frontal passage will
gust up to 20 kts from the northeast (020-050) but will begin
to diminish an hour or two after passage. Based on the latest
satellite trends, the MVFR and local IFR cigs will follow within
an hour of the wind shift with cigs in the 500-1000 foot range,
especially at KBMI with even the possibility for a little drizzle
and vsby restriction in fog for an hour or two as the lower clouds
settle in. The real challenge will be how quickly the lower cigs
are able to lift late tomorrow morning or early afternoon with
the low level moisture trapped under a developing subsidence
inversion. Latest guidance off the NAM-WRF and HRRR continues to
suggest we will see some breaks develop by late morning or early
afternoon so will continue with the previous trends in the TAFs
in scattering out the lower cigs by afternoon with some broken
VFR cigs into the late afternoon hours.
Ahead of the front, surface winds will be light and variable and
then switch into the northeast after frontal passage with speeds
in the 10 to 15 kts with a few gusts around 20 kts for a brief
time. Winds on Tuesday will be from the northeast at 8 to 15 kts.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
100 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
230 PM CDT
OUR STRETCH OF ONE WEEK OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS ABOUT TO GET
A TOUCH OF EARLY AUTUMN REALITY...AND A MUCH RUDER PUNCH LATE IN THE
WEEK. FORECAST CONCERNS WERE ON THE TEMPERATURE DROP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVE AND SUBSEQUENT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
CHANCES...THEN CLOUD COVER TUESDAY WHICH COULD GREATLY HINDER
WARMING...AND FINALLY THE STORM SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE...AND MKE RADAR ALL HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE SHARP COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVATIONS IN EAST CENTRAL WI HAVE DROPPED
BY AS MUCH AS 23 DEGREES IN AN HOUR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
SYNOPTIC AND LAKE-ENHANCED COOL SURGE. WHILE PRESSURE RISES WILL
EASE BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO THE PARENT LOW WELL OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...THIS FRONT SHOULD STILL COME BARRELING INTO NORTHEAST IL
BY 530-630 PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH AND A 20-25 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE DROP IN TWO-THREE HOURS. THIS FRONT WILL THEN CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EASING SOME IN
BAROCLINICITY.
ANAFRONTAL FORCING IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
WI. THIS MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND OMEGA WILL DIMINISH SOME AS
THIS FRONT SLIDES INTO OUR AREA AND SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MORE OF LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE IF PRECIPITATION CAN OCCUR. THIS SEEMS MOST FAVORED
IN THE MID-LATE EVE OVER NORTHERN IL AND POSSIBLY REACHING INTO FAR
NORTHWEST INDIANA. CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD AS VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS UPSTREAM AND THE SLOWING BOUNDARY TRAPS THE MOISTURE
BENEATH A STRENGTHENING INVERSION.
TUESDAY...
SURFACE RIDGING WILL POKE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THIS
TIME...BUT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. CONCEPTUALLY IN A STRONG POST-FRONTAL AIR
MASS WITH A STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE...THINK STRATUS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON IF NOT THE ENTIRE DAY ESPECIALLY
FOR LAKE ADJACENT AREAS. HAVE EXTENDED THE DURATION OF FORECAST
CLOUD COVER CONSIDERABLY AND HAVE CORRELATED TEMPERATURES
DOWNWARD...WITH THE MERCURY ONLY RISING A HANDFUL OF DEGREES IN
NEAR-LAKE AREAS INCLUDING CHICAGO. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...MID 60S
MAY BE REALIZED. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP
TO OPEN SOME HOLES IN THE CLOUDS.
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...
NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND THIS WILL EVOLVE OVER OUR
REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. PHASING OF THE CURRENT WESTERN U.S. UPPER
LOW AND A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE OF WESTERN CANADA IS LIKELY ONE
CULPRIT TO FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL MODEL DIFFERENCES OVER OUR REGION.
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS OUTPUT FOR THIS TIME WITH
CONFIDENCE BEING ESPECIALLY LOW SATURDAY-MONDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CYCLOGENESIS. THIS LOOKS
TO YIELD HIGHS IN THE 70S THOUGH WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY DEPENDENT ON
RAIN COVERAGE. THE RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
INCREASES WITHIN BETTER SUPPORT AND FOCUS FOR ASCENT. WHILE
SPECIFICS ON EXACT PRECIP EVOLUTION REMAIN UNCERTAIN ALONG WITH
WHICH PERIOD WITHIN 24-36H WINDOW WILL HAVE THE MOST WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE...CONTINUE THE BROAD LIKELY POPS MENTION. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE SOME THUNDER WITH SUCH A DEEPENING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE NIGHT AND A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
COLD FRONT. WHILE THERE IS AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IN THE OVERALL REGION...IT WOULD SEEM TO BE BETTER OVER
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO OUR SOUTH WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/DEEPER INSTABILITY POTENTIALLY INHIBITED TO REACH THIS FAR
NORTH FROM CONVECTION OVER THE AREA.
MODELS SHOW WIDESPREAD DIFFERENCES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM IN AN
UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW. THE GFS IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED WITH THE COLD
AIR INCOMING ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND LEANING THAT ROUTE STILL
PROVIDES LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE
SOME DEPENDENCY ON CLOUD COVER. FRIDAY LOOKS WINDY THOUGH MAINLY DRY
WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. WEEKEND CHANCES OF
RAIN ARE TOUGH TO SAY AND DEPENDENT ON WHEN A CLEARER PICTURE IS
PAINTED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCES.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* CIGS AROUND 1000 FT CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH
OCCASIONAL LOWERING TO 800-900 FT...ESPECIALLY AT ORD.
* MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH LIFTING
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
* NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR 10 KT
THIS AFTERNOON.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
LOW MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO BE SPREAD ACROSS THE THE TERMINALS AND
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. SOME PERIODIC LOWERING TO IFR WILL
LIKELY OCCUR BUT CIGS UPSTREAM HAVE IMPROVED SLIGHTLY IN SPOTS
LIKELY BECAUSE OF AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR. EXPECT THAT THE LOWEST
CIGS MAY BE OCCURRING NOW THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN MAY
START TO LIFT TOWARDS DAYBREAK...WITH STEADIER LIFTING THROUGH THE
MORNING. AM THINKING THAT RFD/DPA MAY SCATTER DURING THE AFTERNOON
AT SOME POINT WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKE KEEPING CLOUD COVER BROKEN AT
ORD/MDW/GYY THOUGH SOME SCATTERING COULD OCCUR. LOW LEVEL FLOW AT
CLOUD LEVEL TURNS SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING WHICH MAY PROMOTE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS PUSH IT FURTHER INLAND.
THEREFORE A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE AT DPA/RFD THIS
EVENING. WILL KEEP COVERAGE SCATTERED FOR NOW. NORTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY EASING THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND
GENERALLY BE NEAR 10 KT FOR THE MORNING/AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING
EAST THIS EVENING.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS HOVERING AROUND 1000 FT OVERNIGHT.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN OCCASIONAL LOWERING BELOW 1000
FT...ESPECIALLY AT ORD.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN BASES LIFTING DURING THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERING IS
POSSIBLE.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
THURSDAY...TSRA LIKELY...MVFR POSSIBLE. SOUTH WINDS TURNING
SOUTHWEST LATE.
FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA...MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY WEST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
305 PM CDT
A SHARP COLD FRONT IS MARCHING DOWN THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
WIND SHIFT TO NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT HAS
ALREADY PASSED THROUGH MILWAUKEE AS OF 300 PM CDT. OBSERVATIONS BEHIND
THE FRONT HAVE HELD AT 30 KT OR LESS...SO FEEL CONFIDENT THAT
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SUB- GALE THROUGH THIS COLD FRONT
PASSAGE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH. THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD THROUGH TUESDAY AS WE
REMAIN UNDER NORTH FLOW THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES
ON SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL WEAKEN AND SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST WHILE THE RIDGE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL SHIFT OVER THE
LAKE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY.
AS THIS OCCURS ADDITIONAL LOWS IN THE PLAINS WILL LEAD TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
POINT THE STRONGER LOW HEADS NORTH THROUGH MANITOBA WHILE ANOTHER
LOW MOVES OVER THE LAKE ON THURSDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE STILL REMAINS
MIXED AS TO WHETHER THIS LOW WILL BE IN A DEEPENING PHASE AS IT
TRANSITS THE LAKE OR IF IT WILL INTENSIFY MORE SO NORTH AND EAST OF
LAKE MICHIGAN.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. IF THE LOW IS
STRONGER...THERE COULD BE GALES IN THE BETTER MIXED ATMOSPHERE
BEHIND THE LOW FRIDAY. KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1114 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
The cold front has slipped south of Joliet over the past hour and
continues to make steady progress towards our area this evening.
Not much in the way of weather other than a wind shift and an
increase in clouds. Based on the present movement, it appears the
boundary will shift south thru Peoria and Bloomington between
Midnight and 2 am. Radar mosaic showing a decreasing area of
showers north of the boundary, so not expecting any measureable
precip with the front, other than the possibility for a brief
period of drizzle as the low clouds settle south into the forecast
area after midnight. Other than some adjustments to the evening
temperature trends, no other changes were needed to the grids that
would require an evening update.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
Weak high pressure will continue fair weather into this evening as
few to scattered cumulus clouds with 5-7k ft bases away from the IN
dissipate around sunset. Patchy shallow ground fog will develop
again near rivers and streams in southeast IL during overnight.
A cold front over southeast WI and central IA will push south into
central IL overnight, reaching I-70 by sunrise Tue, and weaken over
southeast IL on Tuesday. Stratus clouds behind/north of the front
will move south into central IL during overnight and especially
affect areas from I-74 north while southeast IL likely stays clear
most of tonight. Light winds into this evening will become northeast
at 5 to 10 mph during overnight over central IL. Lows tonight will
mostly be in the mid 50s with lower 50s north of Peoria.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
A dry front, located just north of the state is forecast to slowly
drop into the area tonight through tomorrow. NAM-WRF model has been
consistent with forecasting an increase in low clouds across the
northern half of the state tonight and tomorrow. It looks like it
could get to I-74 by morning and could progress further south
tomorrow. How far south it gets will depend on how much of the
southern edge of the cloud deck gets eroded away by the strong sun
during the day tomorrow. So, current thinking is it sill get past
I-74 and could get to I-72 in the eastern part of the CWA. During
the day tomorrow, the sunshine should dissipate a lot of the clouds,
like what is occurring in parts of SD/MN/and IA today. Then mostly
clear and dry conditions are expected tomorrow night through Wed.
A weather system in the western US will the lift northeast into the
northern plains and will have a trailing cold front that will extend
down into the southern plains. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop along and ahead of this front Wed well west of
the CWA. However, these storms will advect eastward into the state
beginning Wed night. A second low pressure area will develop along
the front and will move northeast into the Midwest and bring the
cold front through the area Thur and Thur night. Additional
thunderstorms will develop along the front Thursday and move across
the area during the day and through Thur night. Conditions do not
look right for any of the storms to produce severe weather, but this
could change in the next couple of days. However, lightning and
brief heavy rainfall will be likely with any storms that move
through the area late Wed night and Thursday. Once the front and pcpn
pass, there could be some lingering showers behind the front, so
will be keeping some chance pops in the east for Friday.
Beyond Friday, conditions will improve as a drier and cooler air
mass pushes into the area for the weekend. There is one small, weak
wave that could bring some light showers to the northeastern parts
of the area, along and north of I-74, but its too far away to have
much confidence, so will just have slight chance pops for Sunday,
which will not be mentioned in the worded forecast.
Temps will remain above normal tomorrow, when the sunshine is able
to break through the clouds, and Wed as well. Then clouds and rain
for Thur will keep temps milder and around normal. Once the front
moves through at the end of the week, temps will become much cooler
and actually be below normal for the beginning of Oct.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
Cold front has just passed Pontiac and continues to make steady
progress south-southwest into our forecast area. Based on the
present movement, it appears it will push across PIA and BMI
between 05-06z with our southern TAF sites seeing FROPA in the
08z-10z time frame. Winds initially after frontal passage will
gust up to 20 kts from the northeast (020-050) but will begin
to diminish an hour or two after passage. Based on the latest
satellite trends, the MVFR and local IFR cigs will follow within
an hour of the wind shift with cigs in the 500-1000 foot range,
especially at KBMI with even the possibility for a little drizzle
and vsby restriction in fog for an hour or two as the lower clouds
settle in. The real challenge will be how quickly the lower cigs
are able to lift late tomorrow morning or early afternoon with
the low level moisture trapped under a developing subsidence
inversion. Latest guidance off the NAM-WRF and HRRR continues to
suggest we will see some breaks develop by late morning or early
afternoon so will continue with the previous trends in the TAFs
in scattering out the lower cigs by afternoon with some broken
VFR cigs into the late afternoon hours.
Ahead of the front, surface winds will be light and variable and
then switch into the northeast after frontal passage with speeds
in the 10 to 15 kts with a few gusts around 20 kts for a brief
time. Winds on Tuesday will be from the northeast at 8 to 15 kts.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
627 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.TODAY...FORECAST CONCERNS DEALT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP AND MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY. LARGE AND STUBBORN 500 MB RIDGE WILL SLOW THE
EASTWARD MOVING OF THE INCOMING 500MB VORT MAX/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
INTO THE STATE UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR/HOPWRF/ARW/NAM12
ALL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF WESTERN IOWA UNTIL AFTER 18-19Z TODAY AND
THEN INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 21-22Z TIME FRAME. CUT BACK ON
THE EASTERN EXTENT OF POPS AS WELL AS LOWERED POPS TO CHANCES UNTIL
AFTER 20Z ACROSS THE FAR WEST. NAM/GFS/RAP CRL SOUNDING HAVE RAIN
FALLING B/T 20-23Z DEPENDING THE MODEL. PLUS THE STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION FINALLY ENTER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH THE
DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIP TODAY.
MAX TEMPS WERE TRICKY TODAY WITH THE LESSER EASTWARD EXTENT OF
PRECIP BUT STILL ANTICIPATING AN ABUNDANCE OF MID TO HIGH CLOUD
COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE PARTIAL STRONG WAA AS SOUTHEAST
FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPS IN THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTH INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S. LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR
TEMPERATURES TODAY. NAM SEEMED WAY TOO COLD BUT THE GFS WAS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF FOR TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNING TO THE AREA AFTER RATHER QUIESCENT
PERIOD. FOR NOW H500 RIDGE REMAINS DOMINANT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS WITH LARGE SFC HIGH ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA JUST NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SUBJECTIVE H500 ANALYSIS AT 00Z SHOWS WEAK LOBE
OF HT FALLS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN IA AND EASTERN NE ASSOCIATED
WITH FIRST LOBE OF VORTICITY MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT NNE OUT OF CENTRAL CO
WITH SFC SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH ATTENDANT TROUGH
BACK NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WY. BY 00Z WED...THE H500 SHORT WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST WHILE THE H500 VORTICITY MAX
OVER NEBRASKA INTERACTS WITH A RIBBON OF H850 MOISTURE EXTENDING
FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTH TO TEXAS. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE
THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY WITH SOME ACTIVITY REACHING
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD 00Z. THE ADVANCEMENT
OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE COMPLICATED SOMEWHAT BY
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. ALONG WITH THAT...REINFORCING DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT
SOUTHWEST AT THE SFC FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD IOWA
WHERE DEW POINTS OF THE MID 40S FROM EASTERN WISCONSIN GIVE WAY TO
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS WESTERN IOWA.
CURRENT TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD SLOWLY WORK EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE DRY AIR AND PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST WITH WED
MORNING. HAVE TRIMMED BACK EARLY PERIOD POP AFT 00Z THIS EVENING
AND INCREASED OVERNIGHT MORE IN LINE WITH 12Z/00Z EURO BASED ON
ANALYSIS AND CURRENT TRENDS. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
LESSENING INSTABILITY AS THE AREA OF STORMS CROSSES THE REGION
TONIGHT. SO...HAVE TRIMMED BACK WORDING FROM CAT THUNDER TO SCT
THUNDER AND THEN ISO AFT 04Z TONIGHT WEST. SINCE THIS IS A SEVERAL
PART SYSTEM WITH THE SECOND WAVE PROJECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...POP CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL
AREAS EARLY AND THEN EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHER POPS
EXPECTED. ONCE AGAIN WITH SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY THUNDER OF
THE ISO TO SCT VARIETY IS EXPECTED. WITH THE SLOWER EVOLUTION OF
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS SUGGESTING THE
WESTERN MOST WAVE...NOW OVER NORTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA...WILL
HAVE A LONGER TIME TO DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND SHOULD
TRACK THROUGH IOWA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD
REDUCE POP CHANCES WED EVENING AND OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTH.
THE CURRENT 00Z GEM IS FOLLOWING THE EARLIER 12Z EURO EVOLUTION
WHILE THE NAM IS WOEFULLY TOO FAR NORTH WITH ITS FORCING WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THE GFS LIES INBETWEEN...BUT IS LEANING MORE TOWARD
THE 00Z GEM AND 12Z EURO SOLUTIONS. GIVEN OUR SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
FLOW AND MORE ENERGETIC FALL SYSTEMS...PREFERENCE WILL BE GIVEN TO
THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS THAT ARE DIGGING THIS SUBSEQUENT WAVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY...ONLY TO INCREASE AGAIN AS THE FINAL WAVE
DEEPENS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND A
DEVELOPING FULL FALL CYCLONE EMERGES. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
DEF ZONE RAIN AXIS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST...WILL INCREASE RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES ACCORDINGLY.
OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE IS THE NEXT ITEM OF DISCUSSION...WE CONTINUE
OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON DAY2...BUT
THIS IS PREDICATED ON A RATHER AMBITIOUS WARMING OF THE NAM
SOLUTION IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH IF ANY SUN WE WILL HAVE DURING
THE DAY WED...CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER CONDITIONAL DURING THE DAY.
AFTER SUNSET...POTENTIAL FOR SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WHICH MAY
LEAD TO WIND OR HAIL THREATS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH. WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FALL CYCLONE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPS WILL
BEGIN A SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD TREND. H850 TEMPS ON FRIDAY WITH A
CLOSED H500 LOW AMPLIFYING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LOWERS OUR
DAYTIME H850 TEMPS TO 0 TO -2C. WITH -30C PROGGED AT H500...COLD
POOL SHOULD CLOUD AREA OVER...PERHAPS BRINGING SHOWERS AND
STRONGER MIXING ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING...COLD AIR SETTLES
INTO THE AREA. FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE
WINDS DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW SFC GRADIENT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SOME FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BY LATE SAT
AFTERNOON EURO H850 TEMPS RECOVER TO 2C WEST TO -2C EAST. GFS IS
TOO PROGRESSIVE AND WARMING TOO FAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL LIKELY
SLOWLY RECOVER A FEW DEGREES TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH A CRISP
FALL DAY EXPECTED. A DECENT PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY
MORNING SHOULD BRING A FEW CLOUDS...AND A MILDER DAY WITH HIGHS
BACK TOWARD 70. WITH WNW FLOW NOW PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EXPECT SOME FAST MOVING CLIPPERS TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION...KEEPING TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...30/12Z
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. THE
LATEST HRRR HAS THE LOW STRATUS BURNING OFF B/T 14-17Z THIS
MORNING. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW
FOR THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
INTRODUCED MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AND THEN PRECIP ROUGHLY 3-4
HOURS AFTER CIGS MOVE INTO CENTRAL IOWA.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TOPEKA KS
728 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
Spring like conditions driving an early October forecast today as
severe storms have developed over southeastern Kansas and west
central Missouri. Earlier clouds and showers over eastern Kansas
gave way to clearing early and then afternoon cumulus clouds as
daytime heating ensued. Diffuse boundary / surface trof still
appears to extend from near Newton Kansas northeast through Council
Grove and into Wabaunsee county. Morning and afternoon soundings
continue to show an unstable atmosphere, but low level winds in the
surface trof have weakened through the day. Dewpoints near 70
continue to move northward into the counties south of the
interstate.
Conditional severe threat remains for east central Kansas. Lack of a
strong forcing mechanism over our area makes forecast more
difficult. However storms to the south have mid level energy moving
into SE Kansas and NE Oklahoma, and hodographs going straight in the
mid levels favor splits, with left movers approaching our south CWA
edge at this time. Primary threat from these storms will be large
hail and winds, although with outflow boundaries moving out of the
southern and eastern storms, will need to watch for tornado threat
as well. Worth mentioning these storms are producing considerable
lightning and locally heavy rainfall. That said, the better
conditions come together primarily for the counties along and SE of
the turnpike where the watch is now in place. As the low level jet
increases later this evening, may see additional strengthening if
storms develop in south central Kansas and move into our southeast
as the latest HRRR would suggest.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
Main upper trough axis ejects eastward into the central plains on
Thursday. The sfc low is progged to deepen through the day as it
phases with the upper wave. Showers and thunderstorms from the
overnight period will have made its way into north central KS by
Thurs. morning. A decent 30 to 40 kt h85 jet may also support
additional convection forming over east central KS. Through the day
on Thursday, the main frontal boundary continues to trend more
progressive in pushing east of the CWA by 00Z Friday. Dependent on
mesoscale factors such as if and when morning convection in the east
can clear out and where the boundary sets up by peak heating may
form a few strong to severe storms in the late afternoon. Far
eastern KS should see the best chances for severe weather with
mainly high wind and large hail the primary hazards. Localized
flooding may also pose a hazard for the entire area with an average
of 0.5 to 2.5 inches of rainfall in the past 24 hours. Convection
clears east Thursday evening as a stronger upper wave plunges
southeast into the Great Lakes region. Strengthening mid and low
level wind field pickup sfc speeds from the northwest between 20 and
25 mph sustained on Friday. Consensus operational guidance is
hinting on a weak wave traversing through the mean flow across
northeast Kansas on Friday. While model soundings do not show ample
low level moisture, included a low end chance for showers. The main
story through the weekend will be strong subsidence and cold air
advection as highs fall Friday from the 70s to the 60s for Saturday.
May need frost headlines for Saturday AM as trends with h85 temps
continue to fall near 0C. Have lowered low temps down into the
middle and lower 30s area wide.
Extended period remains quiet and dry as northwest flow and blocking
ridge holds over the western CONUS. Airmass modulates back with
highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Another digging trough over
the Great Lakes region may push weak embedded waves southward into
the region on Wednesday where slight chances for precip were
mentioned.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 720 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
Scattered thunderstorms will affect the TAF sites for the
next 2-3 hours before temporarily ending with the potential for
another area of convection then aft 08z which could produce mvfr
cigs and brief ifr vsbys in heavy rain. Winds will shift to the northwest
and increase with mvfr stratus aft 19z as the cold front moves
through the taf sites.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...63
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
538 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED STRONG TROUGH
MOVING INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. AT THE SFC...FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH FRONT DRAPED FROM KLBL TO
KMCI.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL CENTER AROUND
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS
IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WHILE SEEING CURRENT DRY AIR IN THE AREA
DOES CAUSE SOME CONCERN ON PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BULK OF NEAR TERM
MODELS ALL INDICATE A TAP OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING NEAR SFC FRONT
AND INTERACTING WITH ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE THIS EVENING. MIXING
RATIOS IN THIS PLUME ARE HIGH AND WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
EXPECT A DECENT RESPONSE TO PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS.
SOMEWHAT SURPRISED BY CONSISTENCY OF QPF OUTPUT FROM AVAILABLE
DATA SOURCES AND AM COMFORTABLE INCREASING GENERAL AMOUNTS TO 0.25
TO 0.75 AT MOST LOCATIONS. CHOSE NOT TO GO ON THE HIGH END OF
PRECIPITATION THOUGH...DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS OVER
MOISTURE QUALITY. FORCING WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNRISE AS DEEP
CAA TAKES OVER. SURPRISINGLY...SOME LOW TOPPED INSTABILITY DOES
EXIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SO A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS APPEAR
WARRANTED.
OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE WINDS BEHIND STRONG COLD
FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. 12Z NAM AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE THE RAP INDICATE STRONG 3 HR PRESSURE RISES IN EXCESS OF
6MB AS FRONT PASSES. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT. PLAYED UP WINDS A
BIT IN THE FORECAST...BUT UNTIL STRONG PRESSURE RISES/GUSTS BECOME
MORE APPARENT IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA PLAN ON HOLDING OFF ON ANY
HIGHLIGHTS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...
A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
ALONG WITH FRONT END OF H3 JET ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING I DECIDED TO
KEEP 20 POPS ACROSS NW PART OF CWA THURSDAY NIGHT DESPITE LIMITED
MOISTURE PROFILES. STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY OR ADVISORY WINDS (45 MPH)
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVERNIGHT. NAM IN PARTICULAR SHOWS
6HR PRESSURE RISES IN EXCESS OF 10MB WHICH IS CONCERNING AND COULD
INDICATE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF WARNING CRITERIA WINDS. IF THERE IS
VIRGA OR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MAY ALSO HELP MIX STRONGER WINDS TO
THE SURFACE. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON HEADLIGHTS...BUT THIS NEEDS
TO BE MONITORED.
GRADIENT RELAXES FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL JET AND
TROUGH AXIS MOVE EAST...HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL STRONG WINDS ALOFT
OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. PROFILES WOULD LIMIT
MIXING TO BELOW WHERE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE FRIDAY DESPITE
SUNNY CONDITIONS...SO ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SEEM UNLIKELY DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. SHOULD STILL BE WINDY...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
VERY COOL AIR MASS SETTLES INTO REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IF
IT WASNT FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AIR
MASS WOULD HAVE SUPPORTED A HARD FREEZE (LOOKS LIKE WELL LUCK OUT).
CLEAR SKIES...LOW TD...AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE
MODERATING AS A RIDGE OVER THE SW US BEGINS TO BUILD EAST. MOST OF
THE CWA SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING...THOUGH PATCHY FROST WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHERE OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 33-35F RANGE ARE EXPECTED.
SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY...
GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS WESTERN US
WITH MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM SHIFTING WELL NORTH AND EAST OF
CWA. ECMWF IS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND CLOSE
UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES POSSIBLY BRINGING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
BACK TO NORTHERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS OUR CWA. THERE
ISNT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY ON THIS WEAK FEATURE BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLES SO I KEPT SUN/SUN NIGHT DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THESE PERIODS WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
LOWER 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS.
CONSENSUS/MODEL BLEND SEEMED APPROPRIATE...SO LITTLE CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HOWEVER, A LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE INTO BOTH SITES THIS
EVENING WITH CIGS COMING DOWN TO THE MVFR LEVEL BY MID EVENING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY MID DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
136 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHER PLAINS WITH CLOSED CENTER OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO AND COULD BE IN LINE TO IMPACT OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM JUST EAST OF KMCK SOUTH
ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALON THE CO/KS STATE LINE.
WITH FRONT STILL OVER PAR OF THE CWA I CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA
WHERE ML CAPE 500-1500 J/KG IS LINGERING. SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED
ANY CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT SO FAR...AND GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY THREAT
REMAINING EAST AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED BY NAM TO PASS OVER CWA TONIGHT
COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER THIS SHOULDNT AMOUNT TO MUCH CONSIDERING LIMITED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. OTHER GUIDANCE IS FAVORING DRY CONDITIONS...SO
DECIDED TO JUST KEEP MINIMAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE 06-12Z
PERIOD. NAM/RAP/SREF HINTING AT STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN
CWA WITH MOISTURE POOLING NEAR FRONTAL ZONE. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE
IN THIS AS MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND COULD LIMIT
FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHIFTING FRONT FURTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY...LIMITING
SEVERE POTENTIAL AND BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. CURRENTLY THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TO BE AS FORCING
INCREASES FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. I
LIMITED 30-40 POPS TO THE LATE AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTHWEST. I KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
DUE TO BUILDING INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST WEAK FORCING BEHIND FRONTAL
ZONE...THOUGH I WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF WE REMAIN DRY UNTIL MAIN
PUSH COMES IN LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH...AS A RESULT THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH AS WELL. AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY IN OUR AREA WILL ALMOST ALL BE ELEVATED WITH ONLY A
SMALL AREA OF WEAK SBCAPE IN THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE EVENING.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL DURING THE EVENING HOURS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS AS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DIMINISHES...POSSIBLY LINGERING IN EASTERN
AREAS INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING BY MID DAY THURSDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A LARGE RIDGE WHICH WILL SLOWLY BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AFTER A BRIEF
COOL DOWN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KGLD. LESS CONFIDENCE
IN CIG/VIS FORECAST AT KMCK WITH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING IFR OR
LESS JUST WEST OF FRONTAL ZONE IN SOUTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA. GUIDANCE
IS NOT VERY CONSISTENT ON THIS FRONT POSITION AND INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD HELP LIMIT ANY LOWER CIGS OR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WILL KEEP VFR AT BOTH TAF SITES AT THIS UPDATE. THERE
COULD ALSO BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA 06-12Z PERIOD AT KMCK
THOUGH COVERAGE IS A QUESTION SO LEFT OUT. OTHER THAN BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS OUT OF THE SW THIS AFTERNOON AT KMCK WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN 10KT OR LESS AT BOTH TERMINALS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1202 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 932 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IS DIGGING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A SMALL, BUT STRONG +90KT UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE IS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. NEAR THE SURFACE, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IS ANCHORED NEAR AND ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO
BORDER. A MODEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S(F) WITH
NEAR 60F IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH A NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING FROM EASTERN COLORADO AT 00Z
TUESDAY INTO NEBRASKA BY 12Z TUESDAY. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IN
THE KINSLEY, STAFFORD, PRATT OR EVEN MEDICINE LODGE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO END BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z BASED ON LATEST HRRR AND RAP.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE ONGOING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND
ADJUST TIMING AS NEEDED. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF FAR
WESTERN KANSAS GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM 00Z TUESDAY
TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. FURTHER EAST/SOUTHEAST NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM EASTERN
OREGON INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY LATE DAY WHICH STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. AS THIS NEXT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF A SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY HAYS TO MEADE. EAST OF
THIS AXIS LATE TODAY THE SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S, CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG,
AND 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS AT 21Z TUESDAY
AND 00Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS IF STORMS DO DEVELOP LATE TODAY A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAIN HAZARD
AT THIS TIME WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM. A COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE
RANGE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY PATCH
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED ABOVE THE
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WEDNESDAY, THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN THROUGH THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTERNOON.
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FIRST ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BE
OBSERVED. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE IN
THIS AREA WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECASTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FORM THE MID 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO MID 80S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK
BORDER. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PLACE WESTERN KANSAS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY INCREASING TO THE
LOWER 80S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS WILL START OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY MORNING INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 50S SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER EDGES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 84 57 81 54 / 40 30 20 30
GCK 82 54 79 51 / 10 10 20 50
EHA 80 51 79 50 / 10 10 10 30
LBL 84 53 81 53 / 30 10 10 20
HYS 81 58 78 53 / 40 30 30 50
P28 85 62 86 60 / 40 30 20 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
933 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 932 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IS DIGGING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A SMALL, BUT STRONG +90KT UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE IS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. NEAR THE SURFACE, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IS ANCHORED NEAR AND ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO
BORDER. A MODEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S(F) WITH
NEAR 60F IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH A NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING FROM EASTERN COLORADO AT 00Z
TUESDAY INTO NEBRASKA BY 12Z TUESDAY. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IN
THE KINSLEY, STAFFORD, PRATT OR EVEN MEDICINE LODGE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO END BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z BASED ON LATEST HRRR AND RAP.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE ONGOING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND
ADJUST TIMING AS NEEDED. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF FAR
WESTERN KANSAS GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM 00Z TUESDAY
TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. FURTHER EAST/SOUTHEAST NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM EASTERN
OREGON INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY LATE DAY WHICH STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. AS THIS NEXT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF A SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY HAYS TO MEADE. EAST OF
THIS AXIS LATE TODAY THE SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S, CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG,
AND 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS AT 21Z TUESDAY
AND 00Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS IF STORMS DO DEVELOP LATE TODAY A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAIN HAZARD
AT THIS TIME WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM. A COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE
RANGE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY PATCH
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED ABOVE THE
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WEDNESDAY, THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN THROUGH THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTERNOON.
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FIRST ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BE
OBSERVED. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE IN
THIS AREA WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECASTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FORM THE MID 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO MID 80S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK
BORDER. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PLACE WESTERN KANSAS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY INCREASING TO THE
LOWER 80S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS WILL START OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY MORNING INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 50S SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HYS TERMINAL THROUGH
13Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEARING SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 84 57 81 54 / 40 30 20 30
GCK 82 54 79 51 / 10 10 20 50
EHA 80 51 79 50 / 10 10 10 30
LBL 84 53 81 53 / 30 10 10 20
HYS 81 58 78 53 / 40 30 30 50
P28 85 62 86 60 / 40 30 20 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
640 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH A NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING FROM EASTERN COLORADO AT 00Z
TUESDAY INTO NEBRASKA BY 12Z TUESDAY. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IN
THE KINSLEY, STAFFORD, PRATT OR EVEN MEDICINE LODGE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO END BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z BASED ON LATEST HRRR AND RAP.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE ONGOING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND
ADJUST TIMING AS NEEDED. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF FAR
WESTERN KANSAS GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM 00Z TUESDAY
TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. FURTHER EAST/SOUTHEAST NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM EASTERN
OREGON INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY LATE DAY WHICH STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. AS THIS NEXT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF A SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY HAYS TO MEADE. EAST OF
THIS AXIS LATE TODAY THE SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S, CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG,
AND 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS AT 21Z TUESDAY
AND 00Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS IF STORMS DO DEVELOP LATE TODAY A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAIN HAZARD
AT THIS TIME WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM. A COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE
RANGE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY PATCH
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED ABOVE THE
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WEDNESDAY, THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN THROUGH THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTERNOON.
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FIRST ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BE
OBSERVED. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE IN
THIS AREA WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECASTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FORM THE MID 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO MID 80S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK
BORDER. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PLACE WESTERN KANSAS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY INCREASING TO THE
LOWER 80S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS WILL START OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY MORNING INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 50S SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HYS TERMINAL THROUGH
13Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEARING SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 84 57 81 54 / 20 20 20 30
GCK 82 54 79 51 / 10 10 20 50
EHA 80 51 79 50 / 10 10 10 30
LBL 84 53 81 53 / 10 10 10 20
HYS 81 58 78 53 / 40 20 30 50
P28 85 62 86 60 / 40 40 20 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
246 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH A NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING FROM EASTERN COLORADO AT 00Z
TUESDAY INTO NEBRASKA BY 12Z TUESDAY. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IN
THE KINSLEY, STAFFORD, PRATT OR EVEN MEDICINE LODGE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO END BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z BASED ON LATEST HRRR AND RAP.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE ONGOING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND
ADJUST TIMING AS NEEDED. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF FAR
WESTERN KANSAS GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM 00Z TUESDAY
TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. FURTHER EAST/SOUTHEAST NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM NORTHERN
UTAH INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY MID DAY WHICH STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. AS THIS NEXT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY ALONG AND EAST
OF A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY HAYS TO
MEADE. EAST OF THIS AXIS LATE TODAY THE SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO
1500 J/KG, AND 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS AT 21Z
TUESDAY AND 00Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS IF STORMS DO DEVELOP LATE
TODAY A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAIN
HAZARD AT THIS TIME WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 3 AM. A COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50 TO 55
DEGREE RANGE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY
PATCH FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED ABOVE THE
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WEDNESDAY, THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN THROUGH THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTERNOON.
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FIRST ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BE
OBSERVED. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE IN
THIS AREA WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECASTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FORM THE MID 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO MID 80S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK
BORDER. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PLACE WESTERN KANSAS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY INCREASING TO THE
LOWER 80S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS WILL START OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY MORNING INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 50S SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BASED ON BUFR
SOUNDINGS, HRRR, AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE CLOUD BASED MAY
BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS PASS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE BRIEFLY, MAINLY IN THE GCK AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z
TUESDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR, NAM, AND RAP THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MORE LIKELY IN THE GCK AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z, DDC BETWEEN
08Z AND 10Z, AND HYS FROM 09Z TO 12Z. THE PREVAILING WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND OUTSIDE THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE THESE
STORMS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY
IN THE DAY. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS PASSES THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE STRONGER WINDS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE HAYS AND
DODGE CITY AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 84 57 81 54 / 20 20 20 30
GCK 82 54 79 51 / 10 10 20 50
EHA 80 51 79 50 / 10 10 10 30
LBL 84 53 81 53 / 10 10 10 20
HYS 81 58 78 53 / 30 20 30 50
P28 85 62 86 60 / 20 40 20 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
125 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH A NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING FROM EASTERN COLORADO AT 00Z
TUESDAY INTO NEBRASKA BY 12Z TUESDAY. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IN
THE KINSLEY, STAFFORD, PRATT OR EVEN MEDICINE LODGE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO END BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z BASED ON LATEST HRRR AND RAP.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE ONGOING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND
ADJUST TIMING AS NEEDED. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF FAR
WESTERN KANSAS GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM 00Z TUESDAY
TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. FURTHER EAST/SOUTHEAST NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM NORTHERN
UTAH INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY MID DAY WHICH STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. AS THIS NEXT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY ALONG AND EAST
OF A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY HAYS TO
MEADE. EAST OF THIS AXIS LATE TODAY THE SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO
1500 J/KG, AND 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS AT 21Z
TUESDAY AND 00Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS IF STORMS DO DEVELOP LATE
TODAY A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAIN
HAZARD AT THIS TIME WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 3 AM. A COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50 TO 55
DEGREE RANGE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY
PATCH FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
STARTING WITH TUESDAY NIGHT, THE FIRST TROUGH WILL BE GOING EAST
THROUGH THE AREA, TAKING THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN COUNTIES,
EXITING THERE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BE
ENTERING FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, GIVING A
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FIRST IN OUR EASTERN ZONES NEAR HAYS,
SAINT JOHN AND MEDICINE LODGE, WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY MIGRATING THROUGH TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, RAINSHOWER CHANCES WILL
INCREASE IN THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST INTO THE 50 PERCENT CHANCE
RANGE, AND INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES SUCH AS MORTON, MEADE AND COLDWATER COUNTIES. NOT
TOO MUCH RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, AS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED. THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL
SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY, BRINGING PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE RECENT FALL PERIOD TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 60S IN THE SCOTT CITY TO WAKEENEY AREAS,
AND WILL BE AROUND 70F DEGREES ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
BEYOND THURSDAY, THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH
MONDAY. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, EITHER. FRIDAY
WILL HAVE COOL MODERATING TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S, BUT THEN SHOULD INCREASE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S RANGE
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS, AS WELL AS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. IN BETWEEN, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS
WILL BE COOL, WITH MINS IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BASED ON BUFR
SOUNDINGS, HRRR, AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE CLOUD BASED MAY
BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATAGORY AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS PASS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE BRIEFLY, MAINLY IN THE GCK AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z
TUESDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR, NAM, AND RAP THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MORE LIKELY IN THE GCK AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z, DDC BETWEEN
08Z AND 10Z, AND HYS FROM 09Z TO 12Z. THE PREVAILING WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND OUTSIDE THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE THESE
STORMS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY
IN THE DAY. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS PASSES THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE STRONGER WINDS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE HAYS AND
DODGE CITY AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 84 57 81 52 / 20 20 20 30
GCK 82 54 78 49 / 10 10 30 40
EHA 80 51 78 49 / 10 10 10 30
LBL 84 53 80 51 / 10 10 10 30
HYS 81 58 77 52 / 40 20 40 50
P28 85 62 86 59 / 30 40 30 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1213 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
AT 00Z TUESDAY A 500MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM WESTERN COLORADO
INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPEARS TO BE
LOCATED UPSTREAM IN NORTHERN UTAH. A +80 KNOT 250MB JET STREAK
EXTENDED FROM WESTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS A SURFACE TO 850MB TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
ARE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHEASTERN COLORADO TO NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. SURFACE DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MAINLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. EVENING CONVECTION WAS FOCUSED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z TUESDAY WERE +19C AT NORTH PLATTE, +20C
AT DODGE CITY AND AMARILLO. 700MB TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM +6C AT
NORTH PLATTE TO +9C AT AMARILLO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
STRENGTHENING AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
COLORADO TONIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS A STRONG H5 VORT MAX LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES OF SOUTHERN COLORADO, A SURFACE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO ENHANCING THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS, AND SUBSEQUENTLY DRAWING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
MEANWHILE, THE STRONG JET CORE EXITING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS,
WILL CLIMB NORTHEAST ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING
MAKING DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT MUCH MORE FAVORABLE WITH WINDS IN
EXCEEDING 80KT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR, STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
AND INCREASING INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE, WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. DEVELOPING STORMS WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO
PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR VERY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DUE TO FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES DEVELOPING THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS ALOFT
STRENGTHEN, NOT TO MENTION MUCAPE VALUES CLIMBING NEAR 1000 J/KG
OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO LESSEN IN INTENSITY AS
THEY MOVE INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIR.
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE MID TO UPPER
50S(F) OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS MORNING AS
A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
OVERNIGHT, DRAWING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S(F) ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER
AND MID 60S(F) ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MARGINAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY ALLOWING H85 TEMPERATURES TO REACH
UP INTO THE LOWER 20S(C) ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S(F) IN WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S(F) IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
STARTING WITH TUESDAY NIGHT, THE FIRST TROUGH WILL BE GOING EAST
THROUGH THE AREA, TAKING THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN COUNTIES,
EXITING THERE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BE
ENTERING FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, GIVING A
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FIRST IN OUR EASTERN ZONES NEAR HAYS,
SAINT JOHN AND MEDICINE LODGE, WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY MIGRATING THROUGH TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, RAINSHOWER CHANCES WILL
INCREASE IN THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST INTO THE 50 PERCENT CHANCE
RANGE, AND INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES SUCH AS MORTON, MEADE AND COLDWATER COUNTIES. NOT
TOO MUCH RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, AS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED. THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL
SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY, BRINGING PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE RECENT FALL PERIOD TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 60S IN THE SCOTT CITY TO WAKEENEY AREAS,
AND WILL BE AROUND 70F DEGREES ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
BEYOND THURSDAY, THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH
MONDAY. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, EITHER. FRIDAY
WILL HAVE COOL MODERATING TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S, BUT THEN SHOULD INCREASE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S RANGE
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS, AS WELL AS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. IN BETWEEN, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS
WILL BE COOL, WITH MINS IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BASED ON BUFR
SOUNDINGS, HRRR, AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE CLOUD BASED MAY
BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATAGORY AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS PASS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE BRIEFLY, MAINLY IN THE GCK AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z
TUESDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR, NAM, AND RAP THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MORE LIKELY IN THE GCK AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z, DDC BETWEEN
08Z AND 10Z, AND HYS FROM 09Z TO 12Z. THE PREVAILING WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND OUTSIDE THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE THESE
STORMS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY
IN THE DAY. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS PASSES THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE STRONGER WINDS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE HAYS AND
DODGE CITY AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 57 81 52 71 / 20 20 30 20
GCK 54 78 49 70 / 10 30 40 20
EHA 51 78 49 70 / 10 10 30 20
LBL 53 80 51 71 / 10 10 30 20
HYS 58 77 52 68 / 20 40 50 30
P28 62 86 59 74 / 40 30 30 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1148 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014
Updated aviation section only.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 247 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
The main weather system for the short term forecast period still
remains focused on Thursday and Thursday night. Medium range, and
now, short range guidance suggests that the best lift and forcing
shall remain limited to the aforementioned time period. This has
been consistent with the model runs since late last week.
With respect to severe potential, using the operational GFS as a
convective template, the time period between 23z-04z (6 pm - 11 pm
CDT) Friday, inclusive, is supportive of at least isolated to
scattered severe storms. The 0-1km and 0-6km Bulk shear remains
between 20-25 knots and 40 to 45 knots, respectively between 00z
and 06z Friday...with Mixed Layer and Most Unstable layer CAPE
edging into a northeast oriented gradient between 1200-1400 j/kg.
The Day 3 Slight Risk area defined by SPC fits very well with the
area of interest over Southeast Missouri Thursday evening.
At this point in time, suspect that there may be some wind damage
potential (entraining very dry air aloft into marginally favorable
layer lapse rates) with a squall line moving into and off of the
Southeast Missouri foothills between 00-03z Friday. Beyond that
time, low level convergence, originally associated with a surface
wave moving through eastern Missouri at the time, will take most
of the enhanced low level convergence and shear rapidly northeast
out of the area by 06z Friday. Other than this limited severe
weather potential, a broad swatch of 1-1.25 inches of rain will be
the primary activity with the passage of the weather system
Thursday and Thursday night.
In the very near term, fog potential will still be an issue for this
morning. Issued an SPS for locally dense fog once again. All though
the high resolution 3km HRRR continues to overreach on coverage, the
13km RAP and 4km NAM-WRF (NMM version) appear to suggest that
Southeast Illinois could see more widespread fog through daybreak.
The influx of moisture should increase after today will limit the
25-30 degree diurnal swing of temperatures experience during the
last few days. Went slightly above the warmest guidance today for
maximum temperatures. More normal diurnal range of temperatures
can then be expected prior to the development of convection late
night Wednesday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
The pattern will generally be an upper level trof over the east U.S.
with strong flow coming into the CONUS across the Pacific NW, and
some riding over the SW U.S. extending into Mexico. Mainly dry
weather is expected. A cold front will depart the area early Friday
with decreasing chances of showers in the morning. High pressure
will build in, and lead to a cooler Saturday. Not sure how cool
though, as the GFS shows 925-850mb warm advection developing as
early as 12-18z Sat. Temperatures will moderate back to seasonal
norms Sunday-Monday. Will keep an eye on a frontal system the models
advertise Sunday night into early Monday. 00z GFS develops some
convection, however prior runs did not. ECMWF stays generally dry.
Will keep it dry for now and monitor trends.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Tue SEP 30 2014
Under ridging aloft, and with a slack sfc pressure pattern, winds
will be very light and variable for the rest of today and into much
of the night under virtually clear skies. However, the overall trend
for the sfc winds should be to take on an erly component as time
goes on. Greater winds just off the sfc are expected to stir the
boundary layer enough to preclude the formation of significant fog
late in the night.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...CN
Aviation...DB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
607 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 247 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
The main weather system for the short term forecast period still
remains focused on Thursday and Thursday night. Medium range, and
now, short range guidance suggests that the best lift and forcing
shall remain limited to the aforementioned time period. This has
been consistent with the model runs since late last week.
With respect to severe potential, using the operational GFS as a
convective template, the time period between 23z-04z (6 pm - 11 pm
CDT) Friday, inclusive, is supportive of at least isolated to
scattered severe storms. The 0-1km and 0-6km Bulk shear remains
between 20-25 knots and 40 to 45 knots, respectively between 00z
and 06z Friday...with Mixed Layer and Most Unstable layer CAPE
edging into a northeast oriented gradient between 1200-1400 j/kg.
The Day 3 Slight Risk area defined by SPC fits very well with the
area of interest over Southeast Missouri Thursday evening.
At this point in time, suspect that there may be some wind damage
potential (entraining very dry air aloft into marginally favorable
layer lapse rates) with a squall line moving into and off of the
Southeast Missouri foothills between 00-03z Friday. Beyond that
time, low level convergence, originally associated with a surface
wave moving through eastern Missouri at the time, will take most
of the enhanced low level convergence and shear rapidly northeast
out of the area by 06z Friday. Other than this limited severe
weather potential, a broad swatch of 1-1.25 inches of rain will be
the primary activity with the passage of the weather system
Thursday and Thursday night.
In the very near term, fog potential will still be an issue for this
morning. Issued an SPS for locally dense fog once again. All though
the high resolution 3km HRRR continues to overreach on coverage, the
13km RAP and 4km NAM-WRF (NMM version) appear to suggest that
Southeast Illinois could see more widespread fog through daybreak.
The influx of moisture should increase after today will limit the
25-30 degree diurnal swing of temperatures experience during the
last few days. Went slightly above the warmest guidance today for
maximum temperatures. More normal diurnal range of temperatures
can then be expected prior to the development of convection late
night Wednesday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
The pattern will generally be an upper level trof over the east U.S.
with strong flow coming into the CONUS across the Pacific NW, and
some riding over the SW U.S. extending into Mexico. Mainly dry
weather is expected. A cold front will depart the area early Friday
with decreasing chances of showers in the morning. High pressure
will build in, and lead to a cooler Saturday. Not sure how cool
though, as the GFS shows 925-850mb warm advection developing as
early as 12-18z Sat. Temperatures will moderate back to seasonal
norms Sunday-Monday. Will keep an eye on a frontal system the models
advertise Sunday night into early Monday. 00z GFS develops some
convection, however prior runs did not. ECMWF stays generally dry.
Will keep it dry for now and monitor trends.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 607 AM CDT Tue SEP 3029 2014
Little change from previous forecast package. Kept lingering
mention of IFR/MVFR fog for the first hour at KCGI/KPAH, but
shifted immediately to VFR conditions for the remainder of the
forecast period.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...CN
Aviation...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
248 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 247 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
The main weather system for the short term forecast period still
remains focused on Thursday and Thursday night. Medium range, and
now, short range guidance suggests that the best lift and forcing
shall remain limited to the aforementioned time period. This has
been consistent with the model runs since late last week.
With respect to severe potential, using the operational GFS as a
convective template, the time period between 23z-04z (6 pm - 11 pm
CDT) Friday, inclusive, is supportive of at least isolated to
scattered severe storms. The 0-1km and 0-6km Bulk shear remains
between 20-25 knots and 40 to 45 knots, respectively between 00z
and 06z Friday...with Mixed Layer and Most Unstable layer CAPE
edging into a northeast oriented gradient between 1200-1400 j/kg.
The Day 3 Slight Risk area defined by SPC fits very well with the
area of interest over Southeast Missouri Thursday evening.
At this point in time, suspect that there may be some wind damage
potential (entraining very dry air aloft into marginally favorable
layer lapse rates) with a squall line moving into and off of the
Southeast Missouri foothills between 00-03z Friday. Beyond that
time, low level convergence, originally associated with a surface
wave moving through eastern Missouri at the time, will take most
of the enhanced low level convergence and shear rapidly northeast
out of the area by 06z Friday. Other than this limited severe
weather potential, a broad swatch of 1-1.25 inches of rain will be
the primary activity with the passage of the weather system
Thursday and Thursday night.
In the very near term, fog potential will still be an issue for this
morning. Issued an SPS for locally dense fog once again. All though
the high resolution 3km HRRR continues to overreach on coverage, the
13km RAP and 4km NAM-WRF (NMM version) appear to suggest that
Southeast Illinois could see more widespread fog through daybreak.
The influx of moisture should increase after today will limit the
25-30 degree diurnal swing of temperatures experience during the
last few days. Went slightly above the warmest guidance today for
maximum temperatures. More normal diurnal range of temperatures
can then be expected prior to the development of convection late
night Wednesday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
The pattern will generally be an upper level trof over the east U.S.
with strong flow coming into the CONUS across the Pacific NW, and
some riding over the SW U.S. extending into Mexico. Mainly dry
weather is expected. A cold front will depart the area early Friday
with decreasing chances of showers in the morning. High pressure
will build in, and lead to a cooler Saturday. Not sure how cool
though, as the GFS shows 925-850mb warm advection developing as
early as 12-18z Sat. Temperatures will moderate back to seasonal
norms Sunday-Monday. Will keep an eye on a frontal system the models
advertise Sunday night into early Monday. 00z GFS develops some
convection, however prior runs did not. ECMWF stays generally dry.
Will keep it dry for now and monitor trends.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 555 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
Patchy vsby restrictions in fog is possible tonight, like previous
nights. Will monitor evening trends, however, as drier air did
work down the column late this afternoon. Otherwise VFR continues
with few-sct diurnal cu developing in 4-5K foot range again tmrw.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...CN
Aviation...DH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
623 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE...
MOST OF THE LASTEST MESOSCALE MODELS NOW SHOWING PRECIP ENTERING
THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINE AND THE SEACOAST OF NH AROUND
09Z...AND CONTINUING TO AROUND 18Z. THERE ARE A COUPLE OUTLIERS
SUCH AS THE HRRR WHICH BRINGS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALL THE WAY INTO
CENTRAL NH BY 04Z. FEEL THIS IS SOMEWHAT OVERAGRESSIVE WITH THE
FAST MOVEMENT/TIMING OF THE PRECIP. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED DEW POINT AND CLOUD COVER
GRIDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
PREV DISC... SOME DRIER AIR AND CLEARING NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...OTHERWISE CLOUDS
WERE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS SHOULD FILL BACK IN TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUD AND FOG. THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE EAST WITH
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MAINE BY DAWN. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM MID 40S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW
PIVOTS SOUTHEAST AND SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT
IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD TOMORROW WITH AREAS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER LIKELY STAYING DRY. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60 WITH WARMEST READINGS LIKELY UPPER
CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER GIVEN NO
PRECIPITATION AND THINNING CLOUD COVER.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES
OFFSHORE. WE`LL SEE BROKEN CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING.
LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE
THURSDAY FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW...HOWEVER
IT STALLS DUE TO BLOCKING FARTHER DOWNSTREAM. RESIDUAL WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS STALLED SYSTEM WILL KEEP THINGS MOIST
ALONG THE COAST BUT EXPECT FOG AND PERHAPS DRIZZLE AT THE MOST IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE. A FEW SHOWERS ATTEMPT TO BACK ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
AND MAY REACH AS FAR AS THE MIDCOAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A SPOKE OF
ENERGY/WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS BACK WEST FROM THE COASTAL STORM
AND PROVIDES A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY...AGAIN MAINLY
OFFSHORE.
THE COASTAL LOW FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AS A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
DEEPENS AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS IS A MUCH SHARPER BOUNDARY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
HEAVIER AND TOP AN INCH IN THE HEAVIER CELLS. ANTECEDENT CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDER WITH
-26 C ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE.
COLDER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THIS FRONT AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING...LOWERING TO IFR TONIGHT AND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.
LONG TERM...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP FOG...LOW CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS DRIZZLE AROUND THE COAST AND AS FAR INLAND AS KAUG
THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER ALONG THE MIDCOAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOWER CEILINGS IN HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SOME TSRA EXPECTED
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON...IMPROVING TO VFR WEST TO
EAST.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
ONCE INCREASE BY LATER TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT AND
BUILDING SEAS. AN SCA HAS BEEN REISSUED FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS.
LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BE 5-7 FT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OUTSIDE
THE BAYS AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS THE WATERS. WINDS
MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST NEAR 25 KTS. WE WILL LIKELY ISSUE SMALL
CRAFTS DURING THESE TIMES.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
945 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH 945AM UPDATE...HAVE CONTINUED TO EXPAND COVERAGE OF LIKELY
AND CATEGORICAL POPS. REGARDLESS OF WHAT THE HRRR AND RAP ARE
CURRENTLY DEPICTING...LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TO HOLD TOGETHER. HOWEVER...12Z PIT SOUNDING SHOWS A LOT
OF DRY AIR...WHICH IS LIKELY THE REASON THAT MODELS SHOW A
WEAKENING TREND IN SHOWERS LATER TODAY AS THE AIR MASS MOVES
FARTHER EAST. IN ADDITION...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
EXPANDED ITS AREA FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT...AND HAVE LIKEWISE
EXPANDED THE AREA IN THE FORECAST THAT MENTIONS A SMALL HAIL
THREAT. 4AM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
WEAK BOUNDARY WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE AREA TODAY. STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME GETTING A HANDLE ON HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WITH THE MAIN 50H LOW WHICH WILL TRAIL BEHIND THE
FRONT AND MOVE INTO NE OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE NEVER REALLY GETS LINED UP AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE 50H LOW...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGS BACK WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A DRY LAYER UP
TO AROUND 5000 FT THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND. WILL LEAVE IN CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. IF THE LOW LEVELS ARE ABLE TO
SATURATE TODAY THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE.
IN ADDITION...COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH PASSING 50H...LOW MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT AN ISOLATED STORM COULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WEAKENS THIS EVENING. THE 50H LOW OPENS UP AND
WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN PA.
UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING 50H LOW SO WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN
THE FAR EAST FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENING HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW ON THURSDAY...
PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY. LATEST NAM IS SLOWING EVERYTHING DOWN...GFS IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE AND THE 12Z ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. FRIDAY DOES
APPEAR LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAIN.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM THE QUIET WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST TWO OR SO WEEKS...TO A MORE ACTIVE AND COOLER
PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE ERIE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW. BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS
OHIO THIS MORNING CLOSER TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS SHOWING
RATHER WIDESPREAD COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT
WHOLLY CONVINCED OF THIS BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. VCSH REMAINS MOST PORTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KFKL AND KDUJ.
OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
755 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH 8AM UPDATE...HAVE ADDED SOME LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOW THE LINE OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN OHIO AS BEING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE BY THE
AFTERNOON...BUT STILL THINK THE LINE WILL MANAGE TO HOLD TOGETHER
AT LEAST INTO MERCER COUNTY. ALSO ADDED THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST
SLIGHTLY EARLIER WITH SOME ISOLATED STRIKES ALREADY OCCURRING IN
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
WEAK BOUNDARY WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE AREA TODAY. STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME GETTING A HANDLE ON HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WITH THE MAIN 50H LOW WHICH WILL TRAIL BEHIND THE
FRONT AND MOVE INTO NE OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE NEVER REALLY GETS LINED UP AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE 50H LOW...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGS BACK WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A DRY LAYER UP
TO AROUND 5000 FT THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND. WILL LEAVE IN CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. IF THE LOW LEVELS ARE ABLE TO
SATURATE TODAY THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE.
IN ADDITION...COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH PASSING 50H...LOW MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT AN ISOLATED STORM COULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WEAKENS THIS EVENING. THE 50H LOW OPENS UP AND
WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN PA.
UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING 50H LOW SO WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN
THE FAR EAST FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENING HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW ON THURSDAY...
PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY. LATEST NAM IS SLOWING EVERYTHING DOWN...GFS IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE AND THE 12Z ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. FRIDAY DOES
APPEAR LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAIN.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM THE QUIET WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST TWO OR SO WEEKS...TO A MORE ACTIVE AND COOLER
PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR FOG ALREADY HAS DEVELOPED IN THE USUAL VALLEY LOW LYING AREAS
AND IS INCLUDED IN TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH PATCHY MVFR
ELSEWHERE. CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE ERIE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW. BAND OF SHOWERS
ACROSS MICHIGAN THIS MORNING CLOSER TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS
SHOWING RATHER WIDESPREAD COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
NOT WHOLLY CONVINCED OF THIS BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. VCSH REMAINS MOST PORTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KFKL AND KDUJ.
OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1159 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO FUNNEL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA AND FOG/STRATUS IS ALREADY RE-FORMING LATE THIS EVENING WITH A
LARGER AREA OF IFR/LIFR CIGS ALSO SPREADING BACK WEST TOWARDS REGION
FROM ONTARIO/LAKE ERIE. WILL MAINTAIN IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH VSBYS
ALSO FALLING INTO THE 1-2SM RANGE INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
ANY LUCK...CIRRUS STREAMING INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG AT BAY OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WITHIN INCREASED SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH. CIGS
WILL LIFT TO VFR...MAINLY FROM LEAD MOISTURE SHIFTING IN FROM THE
WEST WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THURSDAY.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 200 FT AND/OR VSBYS AOB 1/2SM FROM
ABOUT 06Z-14Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 354 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE SPELL OF THE STRONG
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN QUEBEC AND
CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH A SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING BACK
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT A
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW TROPOSPHERE FEED INTO THE STATE DESPITE A WEAK
MIDLEVEL RIDGE SLIDING OVERHEAD. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
ESSENTIALLY CAUSE THE PATTERN LOCALLY TO REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...DISALLOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADVECTIONS OR AIRMASS
TURNOVER. CLOUD TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SLUGGISH IN MANY
AREAS WITH A TRANSITION FROM STRATUS TO CUMULOFORM. THERE HAS BEEN A
RAPID CLEARING TREND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
BUT SUSPECT THIS TO SLOW DOWN AND NOT MAKE MUCH INROADS TO
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN BEFORE SUNDOWN. INSTEAD...EXPECT VERTICAL
CLOUD CIRCULATIONS TO DEEPEN YET OVER THE NEXT 4 HOURS WHICH WILL
SUPPORT GREATER CONVECTIVE ELEMENT SPACING AND INTRODUCE GREATER
CLOUD SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
SET THE STAGES FOR A RAPID CLEARING TREND IN MANY AREAS POST SUNSET
WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING.
NAM AND LATEST HRRR NWP IS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF FOG TONIGHT WITH A
MUCH BETTER PROFILE FOR NEAR SURFACE SATURATION IN COMPARISON TO
YESTERDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LACK OF ADVECTIONS ALONG
WITH THE CONTINUATION OF GREENUP ACROSS THE AREA...HIGH AMBIENT
MOISTURE IN THE BACKGROUND SHOULD SUPPORT FOG FAIRLY EARLY
TONIGHT...I.E. SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF ONTARIO...PORT HURON AND THE EASTERN
THUMB BEFORE SPREADING WESTWARD. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A SIGNAL
THAT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERRAIN IN HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE
AREAS COULD VERY WELL BE A FAVORABLE ZONE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN
THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE...DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT 100 PERCENT AS IT SELDOM IS...AND WILL GIVE LATER SHIFTS THE
FLEXIBILITY ON ANY POSSIBLE HEADLINE DECISIONS.
LONG TERM...
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE EXISTING LONGWAVE TROUGHING NOW
ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS WILL UNDERGO SUBSTANTIAL
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS PROCESS WILL COMMENCE AS
STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN ATTENDANT 140 KT UPPER JET CORE
CURRENTLY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA DIG INTO THE LOWER HEIGHT FIELD.
STRENGTHENING DYNAMICS ATTENDANT TO A LEAD WAVE UNDERCUTTING THE
AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER TO END THE
WORK WEEK. THE DEEPENING PROCESS WILL THEN LEAVE A CLOSED LOW
CONFIGURATION CENTERED JUST TO THE NORTH FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...SPELLING A CONSIDERABLY COLDER AND UNSETTLED PERIOD.
A DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THURSDAY AS THE
GRADUALLY EXPANDING HEIGHT FALLS NUDGE THE EXISTING UPPER RIDGE TO
THE EAST. THIS PROCESS WILL MIX OUT ANY LINGERING FOG THROUGH LATE
MORNING...WITH THE ENSUING INCREASE IN MID LEVEL WARM AIR AND
THETA-E ADVECTION PROMPTING A STEADY THICKENING OF A HIGH BASED
CLOUD DECK DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. DESPITE THE WARMING
THERMAL PROFILE...A LINGERING SOUTHEAST SURFACE WIND AND LIMITED
MIXING DEPTH WILL MUTE THE OVERALL RESPONSE SLIGHTLY. IN ACCORDANCE
WITH THE GOING FORECAST...WILL CONTINUE TO TEMPER EXPECTATIONS WITH
HIGHS OF LOW TO MID 70S. TANGIBLE FORCING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
PERIOD REMAINS LESS DEFINED LOCALLY...THE AREA LARGELY REMOVED TO
THE EAST FROM THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF ASCENT LOCKED ONTO THE
THETA-E RIDGE AND PRIMARY TRAJECTORY OF ANY LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FUNNELING THROUGH THE MEAN SW FLOW. THERE REMAINS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS AXIS TO CREEP FAR ENOUGH EAST TO SUPPORT SOME
LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES. LOW
CHANCE POPS REMAIN APPROPRIATE FOR THIS AREA GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY.
THE INCREASING INTERACTION BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN
WAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE DEEPENING
LOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL PROMPT RAPID SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AND A
STRENGTHENING OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT UPSTREAM BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE DOWNSTREAM PROPAGATION OF A STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD
/50 KTS AT 850MB/ EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND AT THE EDGE OF
THE INBOUND LOWER HEIGHT FIELD WILL LIKELY PROMOTE AN EXPANSION IN
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE MIDWEST BY LATE THURSDAY.
THIS FORCING REMAINS FORECAST TO TRACK THROUGH SE MICHIGAN LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...A CORRESPONDING STEADY INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMMENCING DURING THIS TIME. DEEPEST ASCENT
IN PLACE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY...A PERIOD OF SOLID UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND CVA WORKING INTO A MOISTENING PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. EXISTING MID LEVEL INSTABILITY CERTAINLY SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A THUNDER MENTION...A FEW STRONGER GUSTS A POSSIBILITY GIVEN
THE WIND FIELD SHOULD BEST CORES CAPITALIZE ON THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY.
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO 993 MB AS IT TRACKS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON
FRIDAY. THE OVERALL AMPLITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO FAVOR A
SLOWER DOWNSTREAM PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN HEIGHT FALL CENTER...WITH
THE CORRESPONDING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE NOW EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A TRAILING PERIOD OF CVA AS THE STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS
COMMENCE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES WILL SUSTAIN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS POST-FRONTAL SHOWER PRODUCTION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SUSTAINED BY A 130 TO 140KT JET
THAT DIPS SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW BECOMES CLOSED AT 500MB...BOTTOMING OUT
AROUND 538 DAM. EVEN AFTER SYNOPTIC RAIN ENDS ON SATURDAY...STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS EACH DAY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. STRONG GEOSTROPHIC
WIND COMPONENT WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH DAYTIME
GUSTS OVER 20 MPH BEING COMMON.
MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF GUSTY CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL LAKE HURON BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 30 KNOTS...ALTHOUGH THE
ARRIVAL OF WARMER AIR WILL MAINTAIN A HIGHER DEGREE OF STABILITY
NEAR THE SURFACE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH DURING THIS TIME. A GUSTY
WESTERLY WIND FOR THE WEEKEND AS SEASONABLY COLD AIR OVERSPREADS THE
LAKES REGION.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....MR/MM
MARINE.......MR
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
734 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE DECENT TONIGHT NOW THAT SKIES HAVE
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. THIS...COMBINED WITH CONTINUED LIGHT FLOW FROM
THE SOUTHEAST WILL MOST LIKELY PROMOTE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND
TIMING REMAIN LOW AT THIS POINT. ANY FOG/LOW STRATUS THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE AS LOWER/MID VFR CIGS BETWEEN 6-12KFT MOVE
INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 200 FT AND/OR VSBYS AOB 1/2SM AFTER
2 AM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 354 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE SPELL OF THE STRONG
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN QUEBEC AND
CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH A SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING BACK
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT A
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW TROPOSPHERE FEED INTO THE STATE DESPITE A WEAK
MIDLEVEL RIDGE SLIDING OVERHEAD. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
ESSENTIALLY CAUSE THE PATTERN LOCALLY TO REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...DISALLOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADVECTIONS OR AIRMASS
TURNOVER. CLOUD TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SLUGGISH IN MANY
AREAS WITH A TRANSITION FROM STRATUS TO CUMULOFORM. THERE HAS BEEN A
RAPID CLEARING TREND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
BUT SUSPECT THIS TO SLOW DOWN AND NOT MAKE MUCH INROADS TO
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN BEFORE SUNDOWN. INSTEAD...EXPECT VERTICAL
CLOUD CIRCULATIONS TO DEEPEN YET OVER THE NEXT 4 HOURS WHICH WILL
SUPPORT GREATER CONVECTIVE ELEMENT SPACING AND INTRODUCE GREATER
CLOUD SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
SET THE STAGES FOR A RAPID CLEARING TREND IN MANY AREAS POST SUNSET
WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING.
NAM AND LATEST HRRR NWP IS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF FOG TONIGHT WITH A
MUCH BETTER PROFILE FOR NEAR SURFACE SATURATION IN COMPARISON TO
YESTERDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LACK OF ADVECTIONS ALONG
WITH THE CONTINUATION OF GREENUP ACROSS THE AREA...HIGH AMBIENT
MOISTURE IN THE BACKGROUND SHOULD SUPPORT FOG FAIRLY EARLY
TONIGHT...I.E. SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF ONTARIO...PORT HURON AND THE EASTERN
THUMB BEFORE SPREADING WESTWARD. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A SIGNAL
THAT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERRAIN IN HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE
AREAS COULD VERY WELL BE A FAVORABLE ZONE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN
THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE...DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT 100 PERCENT AS IT SELDOM IS...AND WILL GIVE LATER SHIFTS THE
FLEXIBILITY ON ANY POSSIBLE HEADLINE DECISIONS.
LONG TERM...
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE EXISTING LONGWAVE TROUGHING NOW
ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS WILL UNDERGO SUBSTANTIAL
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS PROCESS WILL COMMENCE AS
STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN ATTENDANT 140 KT UPPER JET CORE
CURRENTLY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA DIG INTO THE LOWER HEIGHT FIELD.
STRENGTHENING DYNAMICS ATTENDANT TO A LEAD WAVE UNDERCUTTING THE
AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER TO END THE
WORK WEEK. THE DEEPENING PROCESS WILL THEN LEAVE A CLOSED LOW
CONFIGURATION CENTERED JUST TO THE NORTH FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...SPELLING A CONSIDERABLY COLDER AND UNSETTLED PERIOD.
A DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THURSDAY AS THE
GRADUALLY EXPANDING HEIGHT FALLS NUDGE THE EXISTING UPPER RIDGE TO
THE EAST. THIS PROCESS WILL MIX OUT ANY LINGERING FOG THROUGH LATE
MORNING...WITH THE ENSUING INCREASE IN MID LEVEL WARM AIR AND
THETA-E ADVECTION PROMPTING A STEADY THICKENING OF A HIGH BASED
CLOUD DECK DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. DESPITE THE WARMING
THERMAL PROFILE...A LINGERING SOUTHEAST SURFACE WIND AND LIMITED
MIXING DEPTH WILL MUTE THE OVERALL RESPONSE SLIGHTLY. IN ACCORDANCE
WITH THE GOING FORECAST...WILL CONTINUE TO TEMPER EXPECTATIONS WITH
HIGHS OF LOW TO MID 70S. TANGIBLE FORCING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
PERIOD REMAINS LESS DEFINED LOCALLY...THE AREA LARGELY REMOVED TO
THE EAST FROM THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF ASCENT LOCKED ONTO THE
THETA-E RIDGE AND PRIMARY TRAJECTORY OF ANY LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FUNNELING THROUGH THE MEAN SW FLOW. THERE REMAINS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS AXIS TO CREEP FAR ENOUGH EAST TO SUPPORT SOME
LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES. LOW
CHANCE POPS REMAIN APPROPRIATE FOR THIS AREA GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY.
THE INCREASING INTERACTION BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN
WAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE DEEPENING
LOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL PROMPT RAPID SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AND A
STRENGTHENING OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT UPSTREAM BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE DOWNSTREAM PROPAGATION OF A STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD
/50 KTS AT 850MB/ EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND AT THE EDGE OF
THE INBOUND LOWER HEIGHT FIELD WILL LIKELY PROMOTE AN EXPANSION IN
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE MIDWEST BY LATE THURSDAY.
THIS FORCING REMAINS FORECAST TO TRACK THROUGH SE MICHIGAN LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...A CORRESPONDING STEADY INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMMENCING DURING THIS TIME. DEEPEST ASCENT
IN PLACE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY...A PERIOD OF SOLID UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND CVA WORKING INTO A MOISTENING PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. EXISTING MID LEVEL INSTABILITY CERTAINLY SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A THUNDER MENTION...A FEW STRONGER GUSTS A POSSIBILITY GIVEN
THE WIND FIELD SHOULD BEST CORES CAPITALIZE ON THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY.
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO 993 MB AS IT TRACKS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON
FRIDAY. THE OVERALL AMPLITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO FAVOR A
SLOWER DOWNSTREAM PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN HEIGHT FALL CENTER...WITH
THE CORRESPONDING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE NOW EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A TRAILING PERIOD OF CVA AS THE STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS
COMMENCE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES WILL SUSTAIN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS POST-FRONTAL SHOWER PRODUCTION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SUSTAINED BY A 130 TO 140KT JET
THAT DIPS SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW BECOMES CLOSED AT 500MB...BOTTOMING OUT
AROUND 538 DAM. EVEN AFTER SYNOPTIC RAIN ENDS ON SATURDAY...STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS EACH DAY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. STRONG GEOSTROPHIC
WIND COMPONENT WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH DAYTIME
GUSTS OVER 20 MPH BEING COMMON.
MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF GUSTY CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL LAKE HURON BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 30 KNOTS...ALTHOUGH THE
ARRIVAL OF WARMER AIR WILL MAINTAIN A HIGHER DEGREE OF STABILITY
NEAR THE SURFACE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH DURING THIS TIME. A GUSTY
WESTERLY WIND FOR THE WEEKEND AS SEASONABLY COLD AIR OVERSPREADS THE
LAKES REGION.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....MR/MM
MARINE.......MR
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
426 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHARP UPR RDG
EXTENDING FM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY N INTO NW ONTARIO...SUPPORTING
SFC HI PRES JUST N OF LK SUP. ALTHOUGH THE MID TROP IS QUITE DRY...
WITH 12Z H5 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS AS HI AS 45C AT MPX AND QUAD CITIES...
LINGERING LLVL MSTR TO THE S OF THE HI CENTER AND BLO SHARP
SUBSIDENCE INVRN ARND H9-925 CAUSED QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD TO PERSIST
OVER THE UPR LKS THRU THE MRNG. DAYTIME HEATING THAT HAS CAUSED THE
LCL TO RISE THRU THE SLOWLY SINKING INVRN BASE PER FCST SDNGS IS
RESULTING IN STEADY BREAKUP OF THE LO CLD EARLY THIS AFTN. THE LO
CLDS HAVE BEEN MOST RESILIENT OVER THE CENTRAL...WHERE LLVL NE WIND
IS UPSLOPING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY TILTED SHRTWV
IS LIFTING NNEWD THRU THE NRN PLAINS. DESPITE THE MID LVL DRY AIR IN
PLACE...SOME SHOWERS/TS IN THE RATHER NARROW WARM CONVEYOR BELT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ARE MOVING INTO SW MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON CLD TRENDS. FCST
CONCERNS ON WED SHIFT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE
INCRSG SLY FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE E OF SHRTWV MOVING THRU THE
NRN PLAINS INTO SCENTRAL CANADA.
TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE LO CLDS WL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE INTO THE EVNG
WITH THE IMPACTS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...NOCTURNAL COOLING AND
VEERING WINDS TO THE S THAT WL BRING A RETURN OF MOISTER H95-9 AIR
SHOULD RESULT IN MORE LO CLDS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD
BE SOME DRIZZLE OVER THE CENTRAL WHERE EXPECTED SSE WIND WL UPSLOPE
OFF LK MI. THE ONE EXCEPTION WL BE OVER THE W...WHERE THE S WIND WL
DOWNSLOPE AND PREVENT/LIMIT THE REFORMATION OF THE LO CLDS. OTRW...
SOME MID/HI CLDS ON THE ERN FLANK OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR
RIBBON MOVING E THRU WL INVADE THE W OVERNGT. THE COMBINATION OF
LINGERING LO CLDS AND/OR INCRSG SLY FLOW WITH H925 WINDS INCRSG UP
TO 20-30 KTS BY 12Z WED WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. BUT TEMPS
SHOULD STILL FALL INTO THE 30S AT SOME OF THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS
THAT SEE MOCLR SKIES FOR A TIME.
WED...ALTHOUGH THE PASSAGE OF SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING DPVA AND DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WELL TO THE W THRU MANITOBA WL LIMIT THE PCPN
POTENTIAL OVER UPR MI...RATHER NARROW WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON
AND AREA OF H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC AND BAND OF H85-7 FGEN IN
RRQ OF 80KT H3 JET MAX LIFTING NNEWD THRU NW ONTARIO WL BRING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE W IN THE AFTN. CONSIDERING THE STRONG
DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND APPRECIABLE DEEP MOISTENING THAT IS FCST TO
RAISE PWAT NEAR 1.5 INCHES /UP TO 200 PCT OF NORMAL/ BY 00Z THU...HI
LIKELY POPS SEEM APPROPRIATE OVER THE FAR W. ALTHOUGH THE MID LVLS
OVER THE E WL REMAIN DRY...FCST SDNGS INDICATE LO CLDS WL PERSIST
MOST OF THE DAY IN THAT AREA AND LIMIT THE DAYTIME TEMP RECOVERY.
BUT WITH STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW BRINGING A RETURN OF H85 TEMPS AS HI
AS 12-13C...MAX TEMPS WL RISE ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
BY 00Z THURSDAY THE AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH
MOISTURE STREAMING N FROM THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. THE INITIAL
SHORTWAVE WILL BE CROSSING THE CWA. WITH STEADY S WINDS AND 850MB
TEMPS NEAR 11C...EXPECT THE FCST LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S TO
HOLD. WHILE THIS INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE A QUARTER TO
HALF AN INCH OF LIQUID...THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE WHEN THE 500MB LOW SET UP ACROSS MAINLY ONTARIO DIVES
ACROSS MN...AND THE SFC LOW ACROSS MO/IA QUICKLY DEEPENS TO AROUND
998MB ACROSS THE W HALF OF UPPER MI LATE THURSDAY EVENING...AND TO
AROUND 988MB BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY OVER N LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR WINDS
TO RAPIDLY INCREASE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR W UPPER MI
OVERNIGHT.
THE SFC LOW WILL SHIFT UP ACROSS JAMES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALLOWING MUCH COOLER AIR TO SURGE INTO THE REGION. THE GFS
LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST WIND WISE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GALE
FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THROUGH THE E HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TO GRAND MARAIS. WHILE THIS MAY BE POSSIBLE...LESS
FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTIONS OFF THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE NOT BACKING THIS
UP QUITE YET. GALES WILL BE STILL BE POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS
PERIOD...BUT WILL KEEP MORE OF A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE TIME BEING
UNTIL MODELS COME MORE IN LINE. WILL KEEP THE TS POTENTIAL IN
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE...AND STILL
MAINLY KEEPING IT OVER UPPER MI/LAKE MI.
THE SFC LOW WILL NOT EXIT FAST...AND WILL KEEP A TROUGH ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY. THE 500MB LOW WILL SWING ACROSS
UPPER MI FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF -23
TO -29C AT 500MB ROTATING ACROSS UPPER MI AND WI. WE ARE BACK TO
THAT TIME OF YEAR WHERE COOL NIGHTS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS OFF OF THE WARM LAKES WILL HELP PRODUCE
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
THE SFC RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. WITH A LESS FAVORABLE WIND
DIRECTION...THIS SHOULD BE THE DRIEST PERIOD DURING THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WL ALLOW LO CLDS AT SAW AND IWD TO BREAK UP
THIS AFTN WITH A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST THIS EVNG.
ALTHOUGH CMX MAY SEE SOME SC/LOWER CIGS EARLY THIS AFTN ON THE NRN
FRINGE OF SLOWLY DISSIPATING MAIN LO CLD AREA TO THE S...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THERE INTO AT LEAST THIS EVNG. ONCE HI
PRES IN ONTARIO SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE E TNGT AND A LO PRES TROF
APRCHS FM THE W...THE LLVL WINDS WL SHIFT TO A MORE S DIRECTION. IN
THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND THE RETURN OF MOISTER LLVL
AIR...EXPECT LO CLDS/IFR CONDITIONS TO DVLP AT SAW. DOWNSLOPE NATURE
OF THIS LLVL FLOW MAKES THE FCST AN ESPECIALLY TRICKY ONE FOR CMX
AND IWD...SO INCLUDED JUST A SCT DECK FOR NOW. ANY LO CLDS THAT DVLP
TNGT SHOULD DISSIPATE ON WED AT CMX/IWD WITH DAYTIME HEATING...BUT
THESE CLDS WL BE MORE RESILIENT AT SAW EVEN IF THE CIG HGT DOES LIFT
ABV 1K FT INTO THE MVFR RANGE BY NOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
HIGH PRESSURE OF OVER N ONTARIO WILL MOVE E TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN NE WILL LIFT ACROSS S MANITOBA WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
TO HUDSON BAY THURSDAY MORNING. A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL MOVE E...REACHING LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY. A LOW WILL FORM
ALONG THIS TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY THURSDAY EVENING AND THEN
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS INTO N ONTARIO FRIDAY...AND TO HUDSON BAY FRIDAY
NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W PLAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SETTLE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...AS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE HUDSON BAY LOW LINGERS OVER
N ONTARIO. A PERIOD OF NEAR GALES OUT OF THE W-NW WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
353 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHARP UPR RDG
EXTENDING FM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY N INTO NW ONTARIO...SUPPORTING
SFC HI PRES JUST N OF LK SUP. ALTHOUGH THE MID TROP IS QUITE DRY...
WITH 12Z H5 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS AS HI AS 45C AT MPX AND QUAD CITIES...
LINGERING LLVL MSTR TO THE S OF THE HI CENTER AND BLO SHARP
SUBSIDENCE INVRN ARND H9-925 CAUSED QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD TO PERSIST
OVER THE UPR LKS THRU THE MRNG. DAYTIME HEATING THAT HAS CAUSED THE
LCL TO RISE THRU THE SLOWLY SINKING INVRN BASE PER FCST SDNGS IS
RESULTING IN STEADY BREAKUP OF THE LO CLD EARLY THIS AFTN. THE LO
CLDS HAVE BEEN MOST RESILIENT OVER THE CENTRAL...WHERE LLVL NE WIND
IS UPSLOPING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY TILTED SHRTWV
IS LIFTING NNEWD THRU THE NRN PLAINS. DESPITE THE MID LVL DRY AIR IN
PLACE...SOME SHOWERS/TS IN THE RATHER NARROW WARM CONVEYOR BELT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ARE MOVING INTO SW MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON CLD TRENDS. FCST
CONCERNS ON WED SHIFT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE
INCRSG SLY FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE E OF SHRTWV MOVING THRU THE
NRN PLAINS INTO SCENTRAL CANADA.
TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE LO CLDS WL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE INTO THE EVNG
WITH THE IMPACTS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...NOCTURNAL COOLING AND
VEERING WINDS TO THE S THAT WL BRING A RETURN OF MOISTER H95-9 AIR
SHOULD RESULT IN MORE LO CLDS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD
BE SOME DRIZZLE OVER THE CENTRAL WHERE EXPECTED SSE WIND WL UPSLOPE
OFF LK MI. THE ONE EXCEPTION WL BE OVER THE W...WHERE THE S WIND WL
DOWNSLOPE AND PREVENT/LIMIT THE REFORMATION OF THE LO CLDS. OTRW...
SOME MID/HI CLDS ON THE ERN FLANK OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR
RIBBON MOVING E THRU WL INVADE THE W OVERNGT. THE COMBINATION OF
LINGERING LO CLDS AND/OR INCRSG SLY FLOW WITH H925 WINDS INCRSG UP
TO 20-30 KTS BY 12Z WED WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. BUT TEMPS
SHOULD STILL FALL INTO THE 30S AT SOME OF THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS
THAT SEE MOCLR SKIES FOR A TIME.
WED...ALTHOUGH THE PASSAGE OF SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING DPVA AND DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WELL TO THE W THRU MANITOBA WL LIMIT THE PCPN
POTENTIAL OVER UPR MI...RATHER NARROW WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON
AND AREA OF H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC AND BAND OF H85-7 FGEN IN
RRQ OF 80KT H3 JET MAX LIFTING NNEWD THRU NW ONTARIO WL BRING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE W IN THE AFTN. CONSIDERING THE STRONG
DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND APPRECIABLE DEEP MOISTENING THAT IS FCST TO
RAISE PWAT NEAR 1.5 INCHES /UP TO 200 PCT OF NORMAL/ BY 00Z THU...HI
LIKELY POPS SEEM APPROPRIATE OVER THE FAR W. ALTHOUGH THE MID LVLS
OVER THE E WL REMAIN DRY...FCST SDNGS INDICATE LO CLDS WL PERSIST
MOST OF THE DAY IN THAT AREA AND LIMIT THE DAYTIME TEMP RECOVERY.
BUT WITH STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW BRINGING A RETURN OF H85 TEMPS AS HI
AS 12-13C...MAX TEMPS WL RISE ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
ATTENTION IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT 12Z WED INTO THE CWA AT 00Z SAT
WHILE DEEPENING AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED...AS IS GENERALLY
AGREED ON BY NWP. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN LOOKS TO CLOSE OFF INTO A
LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRI NIGHT...BUT MODEL
DISAGREEMENT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AT THIS POINT WITH THE STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT DOES INCREASE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON WITH MODELS SHOWING A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS.
ONE THING THAT CAN BE SAID WITH CERTAINTY IS THAT THE PATTERN WILL
BE MORE ACTIVE THAN LAST WEEK.
SHOWERS /POSSIBLY WITH SOME THUNDER/ IS STILL EXPECTED TO VERY
GRADUALLY MOVE W TO E ACROSS THE CWA WED THROUGH THU DUE TO
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT. MAIN ISSUE
TO POINT OUT FROM A CONFIDENCE STANDPOINT IS THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL PROBABLY EJECT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE W /AS SHOWN BY
NWP/...BUT THE MODELS DO NO AGREE ON THE STRENGTH/TIMING/TRACK OF
ANY ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE
PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP AND/OR GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE...BUT
ACCURATELY TIMING THOSE OUT IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 60S LOOK TO MAKE A RETURN ON WED AND THU DUE TO THE WAA AND
RESULTING WARM AIRMASS /850MB TEMPS OF 10-13C/.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE UPPER TROUGH TEARS INTO THE AREA THU
NIGHT AND FRI...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WITH IT. AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE 850MB TEMPS BELOW 0C BY THE END OF
THE DAY FRI. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND MAGNITUDE OF
RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS AS IT MOVES IN...PERIODS OF PRECIP DOES LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET THU NIGHT INTO FRI...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SFC LOW LEVEL FEATURES. SOME
MODELS /MAINLY THE GFS AND NAM/ SHOW A DEEPER SFC LOW TRANSITING THE
CWA THU NIGHT INTO FRI /AS THE GFS HAS SHOWN VARIOUS ITERATIONS OF
FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS/. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...GALES WOULD LIKELY
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WHILE THIS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO ADD
THIS SCENARIO TO THE FORECAST. PRECIP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT IS A BIT
MORE CERTAIN SINCE IT WILL BE LESS DUE TO A SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AND MORE
TO SUB ZERO 850MB TEMPS AND WNW-NW LOW LEVEL WINDS LEADING TO LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. IN FACT...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW
COLD THE AIRMASS IS...SNOW IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE PICTURE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS UNLIKELY /ESPECIALLY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS/. DID ADD SNOW CHANCES TO THE FORECAST
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN UPPER MI FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AND FOR
PORTIONS OF NWRN AND NERN UPPER MI SAT NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS BY SATURDAY
LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S....WITH LOW TEMPS SAT NIGHT
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
GOING COMPLETELY WITH MODEL CONSENSUS IDEA SUN AND MON GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WL ALLOW LO CLDS AT SAW AND IWD TO BREAK UP
THIS AFTN WITH A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST THIS EVNG.
ALTHOUGH CMX MAY SEE SOME SC/LOWER CIGS EARLY THIS AFTN ON THE NRN
FRINGE OF SLOWLY DISSIPATING MAIN LO CLD AREA TO THE S...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THERE INTO AT LEAST THIS EVNG. ONCE HI
PRES IN ONTARIO SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE E TNGT AND A LO PRES TROF
APRCHS FM THE W...THE LLVL WINDS WL SHIFT TO A MORE S DIRECTION. IN
THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND THE RETURN OF MOISTER LLVL
AIR...EXPECT LO CLDS/IFR CONDITIONS TO DVLP AT SAW. DOWNSLOPE NATURE
OF THIS LLVL FLOW MAKES THE FCST AN ESPECIALLY TRICKY ONE FOR CMX
AND IWD...SO INCLUDED JUST A SCT DECK FOR NOW. ANY LO CLDS THAT DVLP
TNGT SHOULD DISSIPATE ON WED AT CMX/IWD WITH DAYTIME HEATING...BUT
THESE CLDS WL BE MORE RESILIENT AT SAW EVEN IF THE CIG HGT DOES LIFT
ABV 1K FT INTO THE MVFR RANGE BY NOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
HIGH PRESSURE OF OVER N ONTARIO WILL MOVE E TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN NE WILL LIFT ACROSS S MANITOBA WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
TO HUDSON BAY THURSDAY MORNING. A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL MOVE E...REACHING LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY. A LOW WILL FORM
ALONG THIS TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY THURSDAY EVENING AND THEN
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS INTO N ONTARIO FRIDAY...AND TO HUDSON BAY FRIDAY
NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W PLAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SETTLE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...AS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE HUDSON BAY LOW LINGERS OVER
N ONTARIO. A PERIOD OF NEAR GALES OUT OF THE W-NW WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
312 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHARP UPR RDG
EXTENDING FM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY N INTO NW ONTARIO...SUPPORTING
SFC HI PRES JUST N OF LK SUP. ALTHOUGH THE MID TROP IS QUITE DRY...
WITH 12Z H5 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS AS HI AS 45C AT MPX AND QUAD CITIES...
LINGERING LLVL MSTR TO THE S OF THE HI CENTER AND BLO SHARP
SUBSIDENCE INVRN ARND H9-925 CAUSED QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD TO PERSIST
OVER THE UPR LKS THRU THE MRNG. DAYTIME HEATING THAT HAS CAUSED THE
LCL TO RISE THRU THE SLOWLY SINKING INVRN BASE PER FCST SDNGS IS
RESULTING IN STEADY BREAKUP OF THE LO CLD EARLY THIS AFTN. THE LO
CLDS HAVE BEEN MOST RESILIENT OVER THE CENTRAL...WHERE LLVL NE WIND
IS UPSLOPING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY TILTED SHRTWV
IS LIFTING NNEWD THRU THE NRN PLAINS. DESPITE THE MID LVL DRY AIR IN
PLACE...SOME SHOWERS/TS IN THE RATHER NARROW WARM CONVEYOR BELT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ARE MOVING INTO SW MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON CLD TRENDS. FCST
CONCERNS ON WED SHIFT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE
INCRSG SLY FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE E OF SHRTWV MOVING THRU THE
NRN PLAINS INTO SCENTRAL CANADA.
TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE LO CLDS WL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE INTO THE EVNG
WITH THE IMPACTS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...NOCTURNAL COOLING AND
VEERING WINDS TO THE S THAT WL BRING A RETURN OF MOISTER H95-9 AIR
SHOULD RESULT IN MORE LO CLDS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD
BE SOME DRIZZLE OVER THE CENTRAL WHERE EXPECTED SSE WIND WL UPSLOPE
OFF LK MI. THE ONE EXCEPTION WL BE OVER THE W...WHERE THE S WIND WL
DOWNSLOPE AND PREVENT/LIMIT THE REFORMATION OF THE LO CLDS. OTRW...
SOME MID/HI CLDS ON THE ERN FLANK OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR
RIBBON MOVING E THRU WL INVADE THE W OVERNGT. THE COMBINATION OF
LINGERING LO CLDS AND/OR INCRSG SLY FLOW WITH H925 WINDS INCRSG UP
TO 20-30 KTS BY 12Z WED WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. BUT TEMPS
SHOULD STILL FALL INTO THE 30S AT SOME OF THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS
THAT SEE MOCLR SKIES FOR A TIME.
WED...ALTHOUGH THE PASSAGE OF SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING DPVA AND DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WELL TO THE W THRU MANITOBA WL LIMIT THE PCPN
POTENTIAL OVER UPR MI...RATHER NARROW WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON
AND AREA OF H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC AND BAND OF H85-7 FGEN IN
RRQ OF 80KT H3 JET MAX LIFTING NNEWD THRU NW ONTARIO WL BRING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE W IN THE AFTN. CONSIDERING THE STRONG
DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND APPRECIABLE DEEP MOISTENING THAT IS FCST TO
RAISE PWAT NEAR 1.5 INCHES /UP TO 200 PCT OF NORMAL/ BY 00Z THU...HI
LIKELY POPS SEEM APPROPRIATE OVER THE FAR W. ALTHOUGH THE MID LVLS
OVER THE E WL REMAIN DRY...FCST SDNGS INDICATE LO CLDS WL PERSIST
MOST OF THE DAY IN THAT AREA AND LIMIT THE DAYTIME TEMP RECOVERY.
BUT WITH STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW BRINGING A RETURN OF H85 TEMPS AS HI
AS 12-13C...MAX TEMPS WL RISE ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
ATTENTION IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT 12Z WED INTO THE CWA AT 00Z SAT
WHILE DEEPENING AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED...AS IS GENERALLY
AGREED ON BY NWP. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN LOOKS TO CLOSE OFF INTO A
LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRI NIGHT...BUT MODEL
DISAGREEMENT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AT THIS POINT WITH THE STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT DOES INCREASE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON WITH MODELS SHOWING A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS.
ONE THING THAT CAN BE SAID WITH CERTAINTY IS THAT THE PATTERN WILL
BE MORE ACTIVE THAN LAST WEEK.
SHOWERS /POSSIBLY WITH SOME THUNDER/ IS STILL EXPECTED TO VERY
GRADUALLY MOVE W TO E ACROSS THE CWA WED THROUGH THU DUE TO
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT. MAIN ISSUE
TO POINT OUT FROM A CONFIDENCE STANDPOINT IS THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL PROBABLY EJECT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE W /AS SHOWN BY
NWP/...BUT THE MODELS DO NO AGREE ON THE STRENGTH/TIMING/TRACK OF
ANY ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE
PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP AND/OR GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE...BUT
ACCURATELY TIMING THOSE OUT IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 60S LOOK TO MAKE A RETURN ON WED AND THU DUE TO THE WAA AND
RESULTING WARM AIRMASS /850MB TEMPS OF 10-13C/.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE UPPER TROUGH TEARS INTO THE AREA THU
NIGHT AND FRI...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WITH IT. AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE 850MB TEMPS BELOW 0C BY THE END OF
THE DAY FRI. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND MAGNITUDE OF
RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS AS IT MOVES IN...PERIODS OF PRECIP DOES LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET THU NIGHT INTO FRI...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SFC LOW LEVEL FEATURES. SOME
MODELS /MAINLY THE GFS AND NAM/ SHOW A DEEPER SFC LOW TRANSITING THE
CWA THU NIGHT INTO FRI /AS THE GFS HAS SHOWN VARIOUS ITERATIONS OF
FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS/. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...GALES WOULD LIKELY
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WHILE THIS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO ADD
THIS SCENARIO TO THE FORECAST. PRECIP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT IS A BIT
MORE CERTAIN SINCE IT WILL BE LESS DUE TO A SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AND MORE
TO SUB ZERO 850MB TEMPS AND WNW-NW LOW LEVEL WINDS LEADING TO LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. IN FACT...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW
COLD THE AIRMASS IS...SNOW IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE PICTURE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS UNLIKELY /ESPECIALLY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS/. DID ADD SNOW CHANCES TO THE FORECAST
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN UPPER MI FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AND FOR
PORTIONS OF NWRN AND NERN UPPER MI SAT NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS BY SATURDAY
LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S....WITH LOW TEMPS SAT NIGHT
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
GOING COMPLETELY WITH MODEL CONSENSUS IDEA SUN AND MON GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WL ALLOW LO CLDS AT SAW AND IWD TO BREAK UP
THIS AFTN WITH A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST THIS EVNG.
ALTHOUGH CMX MAY SEE SOME SC/LOWER CIGS EARLY THIS AFTN ON THE NRN
FRINGE OF SLOWLY DISSIPATING MAIN LO CLD AREA TO THE S...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THERE INTO AT LEAST THIS EVNG. ONCE HI
PRES IN ONTARIO SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE E TNGT AND A LO PRES TROF
APRCHS FM THE W...THE LLVL WINDS WL SHIFT TO A MORE S DIRECTION. IN
THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND THE RETURN OF MOISTER LLVL
AIR...EXPECT LO CLDS/IFR CONDITIONS TO DVLP AT SAW. DOWNSLOPE NATURE
OF THIS LLVL FLOW MAKES THE FCST AN ESPECIALLY TRICKY ONE FOR CMX
AND IWD...SO INCLUDED JUST A SCT DECK FOR NOW. ANY LO CLDS THAT DVLP
TNGT SHOULD DISSIPATE ON WED AT CMX/IWD WITH DAYTIME HEATING...BUT
THESE CLDS WL BE MORE RESILIENT AT SAW EVEN IF THE CIG HGT DOES LIFT
ABV 1K FT INTO THE MVFR RANGE BY NOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
WITH HIGH PRES JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
UNDER 20KT THIS MORNING. WINDS OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR MAY
INCREASE INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE FOR A TIME THIS AFTN/EVENING AS THE
HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE E. WINDS SHOULD OTHERWISE REMAIN UNDER 20KT
THROUGH AT LEAST THU MORNING...THOUGH THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT UPTICK
IN S TO SE WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WED AS PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BTWN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE W. THAT COLD FRONT WILL REACH LAKE SUPERIOR THU...AND THEN A
WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW ORGANIZES AND HOW QUICKLY IT
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES N THRU NRN ONTARIO...THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF NW GALES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AT SOME POINT
FRI AND/OR SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
133 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING
N THRU WRN NEBRASKA. IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM IS A SHARP RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM MO THRU MN INTO MANITOBA AND NRN ONTARIO. SHORTWAVE
THAT PRODUCED SHOWERS HERE YESTERDAY IS NOW OVER LWR MI AND SRN
ONTARIO. IN THE WAKE OF THAT SHORTWAVE...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS BEEN TRAPPED UNDER A STRENGTHENING INVERSION...RESULTING IN OVC
SKIES OVERNIGHT ACROSS UPPER MI WITH ONE EXCEPTION. DRIER AIR AND
CLEAR SKIES HAVE ADVANCED S ACROSS CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE TIP OF
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED OVER NRN
ONTARIO.
GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING INVERSION AND LOWER SUN ANGLE AT THIS TIME
OF YEAR...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A WHILE TO CLEAR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ALTHOUGH CLEARING HAS ADVANCED S TO THE TIP
OF THE KEWEENAW OVERNIGHT...VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION RESULTING FROM THE SFC HIGH SHIFTING EASTWARD WILL SLOW
AND STALL THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCE OF DRIER AIR. SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALREADY SHOWS THIS OCCURRING. GIVEN WHERE THE CLEARING LINE IS
UPSTREAM TO THE E OF LAKE SUPERIOR...HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AREA WILL NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING TODAY. FOR NOW...FCST
WILL SHOW CLOUDS DOMINATING THIS MORNING AND THEN GRADUAL CLEARING
IN THE AFTN. IT MAY END UP BEING THAT DOWNSLOPE AREAS WILL BE THE
FIRST TO SEE INCREASING SUNSHINE THIS AFTN WITH CLEARING THEN SLOWLY
EXPANDING FROM THERE. AS FOR TEMPS...LOWERED TEMPS A BIT FROM
INHERITED FCST TO REFLECT THE MORE PESSIMISTIC CLEARING TREND. TEMPS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50F OVER THE NCNTRL WHERE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO
LINGER LONGEST. OTHERWISE...50S WIL BE THE RULE TODAY.
IF SKIES DO CLEAR THIS AFTN/EVENING...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AGAIN TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS SPREADING E FROM THE POTENT SHORTWAVE
LIFTING THRU THE DAKOTAS BUT MORE SO DUE TO A RETURN OF LOWER CLOUDS
LIFTING BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SE. ALTHOUGH POTENT SHORTWAVE
WILL BE TAKING A TRACK WELL W OF HERE...RIBBON OF FAIRLY STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY SPREAD SCT
SHRA AS FAR E AS FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
ATTENTION IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT 12Z WED INTO THE CWA AT 00Z SAT
WHILE DEEPENING AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED...AS IS GENERALLY
AGREED ON BY NWP. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN LOOKS TO CLOSE OFF INTO A
LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRI NIGHT...BUT MODEL
DISAGREEMENT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AT THIS POINT WITH THE STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT DOES INCREASE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON WITH MODELS SHOWING A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS.
ONE THING THAT CAN BE SAID WITH CERTAINTY IS THAT THE PATTERN WILL
BE MORE ACTIVE THAN LAST WEEK.
SHOWERS /POSSIBLY WITH SOME THUNDER/ IS STILL EXPECTED TO VERY
GRADUALLY MOVE W TO E ACROSS THE CWA WED THROUGH THU DUE TO
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT. MAIN ISSUE
TO POINT OUT FROM A CONFIDENCE STANDPOINT IS THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL PROBABLY EJECT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE W /AS SHOWN BY
NWP/...BUT THE MODELS DO NO AGREE ON THE STRENGTH/TIMING/TRACK OF
ANY ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE
PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP AND/OR GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE...BUT
ACCURATELY TIMING THOSE OUT IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 60S LOOK TO MAKE A RETURN ON WED AND THU DUE TO THE WAA AND
RESULTING WARM AIRMASS /850MB TEMPS OF 10-13C/.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE UPPER TROUGH TEARS INTO THE AREA THU
NIGHT AND FRI...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WITH IT. AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE 850MB TEMPS BELOW 0C BY THE END OF
THE DAY FRI. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND MAGNITUDE OF
RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS AS IT MOVES IN...PERIODS OF PRECIP DOES LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET THU NIGHT INTO FRI...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SFC LOW LEVEL FEATURES. SOME
MODELS /MAINLY THE GFS AND NAM/ SHOW A DEEPER SFC LOW TRANSITING THE
CWA THU NIGHT INTO FRI /AS THE GFS HAS SHOWN VARIOUS ITERATIONS OF
FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS/. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...GALES WOULD LIKELY
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WHILE THIS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO ADD
THIS SCENARIO TO THE FORECAST. PRECIP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT IS A BIT
MORE CERTAIN SINCE IT WILL BE LESS DUE TO A SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AND MORE
TO SUB ZERO 850MB TEMPS AND WNW-NW LOW LEVEL WINDS LEADING TO LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. IN FACT...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW
COLD THE AIRMASS IS...SNOW IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE PICTURE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS UNLIKELY /ESPECIALLY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS/. DID ADD SNOW CHANCES TO THE FORECAST
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN UPPER MI FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AND FOR
PORTIONS OF NWRN AND NERN UPPER MI SAT NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS BY SATURDAY
LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S....WITH LOW TEMPS SAT NIGHT
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
GOING COMPLETELY WITH MODEL CONSENSUS IDEA SUN AND MON GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WL ALLOW LO CLDS AT SAW AND IWD TO BREAK UP
THIS AFTN WITH A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST THIS EVNG.
ALTHOUGH CMX MAY SEE SOME SC/LOWER CIGS EARLY THIS AFTN ON THE NRN
FRINGE OF SLOWLY DISSIPATING MAIN LO CLD AREA TO THE S...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THERE INTO AT LEAST THIS EVNG. ONCE HI
PRES IN ONTARIO SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE E TNGT AND A LO PRES TROF
APRCHS FM THE W...THE LLVL WINDS WL SHIFT TO A MORE S DIRECTION. IN
THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND THE RETURN OF MOISTER LLVL
AIR...EXPECT LO CLDS/IFR CONDITIONS TO DVLP AT SAW. DOWNSLOPE NATURE
OF THIS LLVL FLOW MAKES THE FCST AN ESPECIALLY TRICKY ONE FOR CMX
AND IWD...SO INCLUDED JUST A SCT DECK FOR NOW. ANY LO CLDS THAT DVLP
TNGT SHOULD DISSIPATE ON WED AT CMX/IWD WITH DAYTIME HEATING...BUT
THESE CLDS WL BE MORE RESILIENT AT SAW EVEN IF THE CIG HGT DOES LIFT
ABV 1K FT INTO THE MVFR RANGE BY NOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
WITH HIGH PRES JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
UNDER 20KT THIS MORNING. WINDS OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR MAY
INCREASE INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE FOR A TIME THIS AFTN/EVENING AS THE
HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE E. WINDS SHOULD OTHERWISE REMAIN UNDER 20KT
THROUGH AT LEAST THU MORNING...THOUGH THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT UPTICK
IN S TO SE WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WED AS PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BTWN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE W. THAT COLD FRONT WILL REACH LAKE SUPERIOR THU...AND THEN A
WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW ORGANIZES AND HOW QUICKLY IT
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES N THRU NRN ONTARIO...THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF NW GALES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AT SOME POINT
FRI AND/OR SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
739 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING
N THRU WRN NEBRASKA. IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM IS A SHARP RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM MO THRU MN INTO MANITOBA AND NRN ONTARIO. SHORTWAVE
THAT PRODUCED SHOWERS HERE YESTERDAY IS NOW OVER LWR MI AND SRN
ONTARIO. IN THE WAKE OF THAT SHORTWAVE...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS BEEN TRAPPED UNDER A STRENGTHENING INVERSION...RESULTING IN OVC
SKIES OVERNIGHT ACROSS UPPER MI WITH ONE EXCEPTION. DRIER AIR AND
CLEAR SKIES HAVE ADVANCED S ACROSS CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE TIP OF
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED OVER NRN
ONTARIO.
GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING INVERSION AND LOWER SUN ANGLE AT THIS TIME
OF YEAR...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A WHILE TO CLEAR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ALTHOUGH CLEARING HAS ADVANCED S TO THE TIP
OF THE KEWEENAW OVERNIGHT...VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION RESULTING FROM THE SFC HIGH SHIFTING EASTWARD WILL SLOW
AND STALL THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCE OF DRIER AIR. SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALREADY SHOWS THIS OCCURRING. GIVEN WHERE THE CLEARING LINE IS
UPSTREAM TO THE E OF LAKE SUPERIOR...HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AREA WILL NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING TODAY. FOR NOW...FCST
WILL SHOW CLOUDS DOMINATING THIS MORNING AND THEN GRADUAL CLEARING
IN THE AFTN. IT MAY END UP BEING THAT DOWNSLOPE AREAS WILL BE THE
FIRST TO SEE INCREASING SUNSHINE THIS AFTN WITH CLEARING THEN SLOWLY
EXPANDING FROM THERE. AS FOR TEMPS...LOWERED TEMPS A BIT FROM
INHERITED FCST TO REFLECT THE MORE PESSIMISTIC CLEARING TREND. TEMPS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50F OVER THE NCNTRL WHERE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO
LINGER LONGEST. OTHERWISE...50S WIL BE THE RULE TODAY.
IF SKIES DO CLEAR THIS AFTN/EVENING...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AGAIN TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS SPREADING E FROM THE POTENT SHORTWAVE
LIFTING THRU THE DAKOTAS BUT MORE SO DUE TO A RETURN OF LOWER CLOUDS
LIFTING BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SE. ALTHOUGH POTENT SHORTWAVE
WILL BE TAKING A TRACK WELL W OF HERE...RIBBON OF FAIRLY STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY SPREAD SCT
SHRA AS FAR E AS FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
ATTENTION IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT 12Z WED INTO THE CWA AT 00Z SAT
WHILE DEEPENING AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED...AS IS GENERALLY
AGREED ON BY NWP. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN LOOKS TO CLOSE OFF INTO A
LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRI NIGHT...BUT MODEL
DISAGREEMENT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AT THIS POINT WITH THE STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT DOES INCREASE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON WITH MODELS SHOWING A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS.
ONE THING THAT CAN BE SAID WITH CERTAINTY IS THAT THE PATTERN WILL
BE MORE ACTIVE THAN LAST WEEK.
SHOWERS /POSSIBLY WITH SOME THUNDER/ IS STILL EXPECTED TO VERY
GRADUALLY MOVE W TO E ACROSS THE CWA WED THROUGH THU DUE TO
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT. MAIN ISSUE
TO POINT OUT FROM A CONFIDENCE STANDPOINT IS THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL PROBABLY EJECT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE W /AS SHOWN BY
NWP/...BUT THE MODELS DO NO AGREE ON THE STRENGTH/TIMING/TRACK OF
ANY ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE
PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP AND/OR GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE...BUT
ACCURATELY TIMING THOSE OUT IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 60S LOOK TO MAKE A RETURN ON WED AND THU DUE TO THE WAA AND
RESULTING WARM AIRMASS /850MB TEMPS OF 10-13C/.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE UPPER TROUGH TEARS INTO THE AREA THU
NIGHT AND FRI...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WITH IT. AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE 850MB TEMPS BELOW 0C BY THE END OF
THE DAY FRI. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND MAGNITUDE OF
RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS AS IT MOVES IN...PERIODS OF PRECIP DOES LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET THU NIGHT INTO FRI...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SFC LOW LEVEL FEATURES. SOME
MODELS /MAINLY THE GFS AND NAM/ SHOW A DEEPER SFC LOW TRANSITING THE
CWA THU NIGHT INTO FRI /AS THE GFS HAS SHOWN VARIOUS ITERATIONS OF
FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS/. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...GALES WOULD LIKELY
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WHILE THIS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO ADD
THIS SCENARIO TO THE FORECAST. PRECIP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT IS A BIT
MORE CERTAIN SINCE IT WILL BE LESS DUE TO A SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AND MORE
TO SUB ZERO 850MB TEMPS AND WNW-NW LOW LEVEL WINDS LEADING TO LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. IN FACT...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW
COLD THE AIRMASS IS...SNOW IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE PICTURE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS UNLIKELY /ESPECIALLY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS/. DID ADD SNOW CHANCES TO THE FORECAST
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN UPPER MI FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AND FOR
PORTIONS OF NWRN AND NERN UPPER MI SAT NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS BY SATURDAY
LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S....WITH LOW TEMPS SAT NIGHT
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
GOING COMPLETELY WITH MODEL CONSENSUS IDEA SUN AND MON GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER UPPER MI
EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER STRENGTHENING INVERSION...RESULTING IN MVFR
TO IFR CIGS. THE CLEARING LINE HAS ADVANCED AS FAR S AS NEAR KCMX...BUT
HAS NEARLY STALLED NOW. BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EXPECTED
SLOWLY VEERING WINDS TODAY...KCMX SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS SCATTER OUT
TO PREVAILING VFR BY AFTN. LOCATED FARTHER INTO THE LOW CLOUDS...
KIWD WILL SEE IFR TO LOW MVFR CIGS PERSIST THRU THE MORNING.
DEVELOPING LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WIND SHOULD RESULT IN CLOUDS SCATTERING
OUT TO PREVAILING VFR DURING THE MID AFTN HRS. AT KSAW...UPSLOPE
WIND THROUGH THE DAY WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS LINGERING
UNTIL LATE AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE THE RULE AT KIWD/KCMX
TONIGHT. AT KSAW...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...THEN AS
WINDS VEER TO THE SE...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS THAT WILL STILL BE
LINGERING TO THE SE OF THE AREA WILL ADVECT BACK TO THE
NW...BRINGING LOW MVFR CIGS TO KSAW OVERNIGHT. UNDER S TO SE UPSLOPE
FLOW...CIGS WILL LIKELY FALL FARTHER TO IFR AND POTENTIALLY LIFR
LATE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
WITH HIGH PRES JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
UNDER 20KT THIS MORNING. WINDS OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR MAY
INCREASE INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE FOR A TIME THIS AFTN/EVENING AS THE
HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE E. WINDS SHOULD OTHERWISE REMAIN UNDER 20KT
THROUGH AT LEAST THU MORNING...THOUGH THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT UPTICK
IN S TO SE WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WED AS PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BTWN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE W. THAT COLD FRONT WILL REACH LAKE SUPERIOR THU...AND THEN A
WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW ORGANIZES AND HOW QUICKLY IT
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES N THRU NRN ONTARIO...THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF NW GALES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AT SOME POINT
FRI AND/OR SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
535 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING
N THRU WRN NEBRASKA. IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM IS A SHARP RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM MO THRU MN INTO MANITOBA AND NRN ONTARIO. SHORTWAVE
THAT PRODUCED SHOWERS HERE YESTERDAY IS NOW OVER LWR MI AND SRN
ONTARIO. IN THE WAKE OF THAT SHORTWAVE...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS BEEN TRAPPED UNDER A STRENGTHENING INVERSION...RESULTING IN OVC
SKIES OVERNIGHT ACROSS UPPER MI WITH ONE EXCEPTION. DRIER AIR AND
CLEAR SKIES HAVE ADVANCED S ACROSS CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE TIP OF
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED OVER NRN
ONTARIO.
GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING INVERSION AND LOWER SUN ANGLE AT THIS TIME
OF YEAR...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A WHILE TO CLEAR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ALTHOUGH CLEARING HAS ADVANCED S TO THE TIP
OF THE KEWEENAW OVERNIGHT...VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION RESULTING FROM THE SFC HIGH SHIFTING EASTWARD WILL SLOW
AND STALL THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCE OF DRIER AIR. SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALREADY SHOWS THIS OCCURRING. GIVEN WHERE THE CLEARING LINE IS
UPSTREAM TO THE E OF LAKE SUPERIOR...HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AREA WILL NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING TODAY. FOR NOW...FCST
WILL SHOW CLOUDS DOMINATING THIS MORNING AND THEN GRADUAL CLEARING
IN THE AFTN. IT MAY END UP BEING THAT DOWNSLOPE AREAS WILL BE THE
FIRST TO SEE INCREASING SUNSHINE THIS AFTN WITH CLEARING THEN SLOWLY
EXPANDING FROM THERE. AS FOR TEMPS...LOWERED TEMPS A BIT FROM
INHERITED FCST TO REFLECT THE MORE PESSIMISTIC CLEARING TREND. TEMPS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50F OVER THE NCNTRL WHERE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO
LINGER LONGEST. OTHERWISE...50S WIL BE THE RULE TODAY.
IF SKIES DO CLEAR THIS AFTN/EVENING...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AGAIN TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS SPREADING E FROM THE POTENT SHORTWAVE
LIFTING THRU THE DAKOTAS BUT MORE SO DUE TO A RETURN OF LOWER CLOUDS
LIFTING BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SE. ALTHOUGH POTENT SHORTWAVE
WILL BE TAKING A TRACK WELL W OF HERE...RIBBON OF FAIRLY STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY SPREAD SCT
SHRA AS FAR E AS FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
ATTENTION IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT 12Z WED INTO THE CWA AT 00Z SAT
WHILE DEEPENING AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED...AS IS GENERALLY
AGREED ON BY NWP. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN LOOKS TO CLOSE OFF INTO A
LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRI NIGHT...BUT MODEL
DISAGREEMENT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AT THIS POINT WITH THE STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT DOES INCREASE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON WITH MODELS SHOWING A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS.
ONE THING THAT CAN BE SAID WITH CERTAINTY IS THAT THE PATTERN WILL
BE MORE ACTIVE THAN LAST WEEK.
SHOWERS /POSSIBLY WITH SOME THUNDER/ IS STILL EXPECTED TO VERY
GRADUALLY MOVE W TO E ACROSS THE CWA WED THROUGH THU DUE TO
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT. MAIN ISSUE
TO POINT OUT FROM A CONFIDENCE STANDPOINT IS THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL PROBABLY EJECT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE W /AS SHOWN BY
NWP/...BUT THE MODELS DO NO AGREE ON THE STRENGTH/TIMING/TRACK OF
ANY ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE
PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP AND/OR GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE...BUT
ACCURATELY TIMING THOSE OUT IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 60S LOOK TO MAKE A RETURN ON WED AND THU DUE TO THE WAA AND
RESULTING WARM AIRMASS /850MB TEMPS OF 10-13C/.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE UPPER TROUGH TEARS INTO THE AREA THU
NIGHT AND FRI...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WITH IT. AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE 850MB TEMPS BELOW 0C BY THE END OF
THE DAY FRI. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND MAGNITUDE OF
RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS AS IT MOVES IN...PERIODS OF PRECIP DOES LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET THU NIGHT INTO FRI...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SFC LOW LEVEL FEATURES. SOME
MODELS /MAINLY THE GFS AND NAM/ SHOW A DEEPER SFC LOW TRANSITING THE
CWA THU NIGHT INTO FRI /AS THE GFS HAS SHOWN VARIOUS ITERATIONS OF
FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS/. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...GALES WOULD LIKELY
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WHILE THIS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO ADD
THIS SCENARIO TO THE FORECAST. PRECIP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT IS A BIT
MORE CERTAIN SINCE IT WILL BE LESS DUE TO A SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AND MORE
TO SUB ZERO 850MB TEMPS AND WNW-NW LOW LEVEL WINDS LEADING TO LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. IN FACT...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW
COLD THE AIRMASS IS...SNOW IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE PICTURE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS UNLIKELY /ESPECIALLY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS/. DID ADD SNOW CHANCES TO THE FORECAST
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN UPPER MI FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AND FOR
PORTIONS OF NWRN AND NERN UPPER MI SAT NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS BY SATURDAY
LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S....WITH LOW TEMPS SAT NIGHT
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
GOING COMPLETELY WITH MODEL CONSENSUS IDEA SUN AND MON GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS NEAR
IFR/MVFR THRESHOLD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. HOWEVER...SOME DRYING WILL PUSH
INTO UPPER MI...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CIGS CLIMBING TO AT OR
ABOVE 2K FT THIS MORNING. DAYTIME MIXING AND ADDITIONAL DRY ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH CLEARING FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX BY LATE
MORNING...AT IWD BY AFTN AND AT KSAW BY LATE AFTN WHERE MORE
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
WITH HIGH PRES JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
UNDER 20KT THIS MORNING. WINDS OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR MAY
INCREASE INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE FOR A TIME THIS AFTN/EVENING AS THE
HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE E. WINDS SHOULD OTHERWISE REMAIN UNDER 20KT
THROUGH AT LEAST THU MORNING...THOUGH THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT UPTICK
IN S TO SE WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WED AS PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BTWN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE W. THAT COLD FRONT WILL REACH LAKE SUPERIOR THU...AND THEN A
WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW ORGANIZES AND HOW QUICKLY IT
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES N THRU NRN ONTARIO...THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF NW GALES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AT SOME POINT
FRI AND/OR SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
909 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 853 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014
Forecast looks to be generally on track and I don`t foresee any
major changes for the rest of the evening. Instability is waning,
but obviously there`s enough to keep some rather strong storms
going. Will most likely let WW511 expire naturally at 1000 PM. The
challenge after 1000 PM will be trying to figure out exactly where
the heaviest rain will fall for the rest of the night. It still
looks like the best threat for heavy rain and training will be
over parts of our central Missouri counties. RAP is persistently
showing moderate to strong moisture convergence at 850mb. Storms
this evening have been efficient rain producers, and I expect this
will not change. No change to flash flood watch at this time, and
will probably only tweak PoPs to match current radar trends.
Carney
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014
Lots to keep track of in the next 24 to 36 hours. First: severe
thunderstorms have developed along the outflow boundary in central
Missouri left over from storms earlier today. Modest instability
between 1000-1500 J/Kg combined with around 40 kts bulk shear have
produced a supercell which is riding the boundary. A few more
cells are developing ahead of the big storm and may continue to
strengthen. Expect the severe threat to continue into the early to
mid evening hours...generally along and south of I-70. Should see
storms weaken within a few hours of sunset, but then the low level
jet strengthens in southwest flow ahead of the broad trof over the
Rockies and developing low level circulation over the Plains. This
will bring the second area of concern into play: heavy rain.
Thunderstorms this morning and now this current round of severe
convection will saturate the ground and increase the potential for
flash flooding. Aforementioned 30-40kt low level jet is bringing
plenty of Gulf moisture up into the area. Forecast soundings show
a warm cloud depth of nearly 12,000 FT and BUFKIT is indicating
that individual convective elements may move very slowly and train
over the same locations. Current QPF from WPC shows rainfall in
excess of 3 inches over the next 24 hours with locally higher
amounts in addition to what`s already fallen. Therefore have gone
ahead and pushed a flash flood watch for parts of central,
northeast, and east central Missouri. Watch may need to be
extended further east or northeast tonight as the situation
develops.
Attention turns to tomorrow when the upper level trof moves into the
Great Plains and the associated surface system moves from northern
Oklahoma into eastern Iowa through the day. Our CWFA will be
squarely in the warm sector through the day, and even if there are
no breaks in the clouds temperatures should be at least between 80
and 85...if not a tad bit warmer. With warm, humid airmass in
place, NAM is forecasting SBCAPE values in excess of 2500 J/Kg in
some parts of the CWFA. With 30-40kts of deep layer shear, and the
approaching shortwave becoming negatively tilted , this looks like a
good setup for severe weather during the afternoon and evening
hours. The shear vector looks like it will be parallel to the front
so the most likely convective mode will be a squall line with bows
and LEWPS possible. The front will sweep through the area overnight
Thursday night and we should be into cold advection by 12Z Friday
morning.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 403 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014
Fall returns with a vengeance Friday and Saturday. Temperatures
will drop 25 to 30 degrees behind the front Friday and Saturday. It
will also be pretty breezy behind the front on Friday. Forecast
soundings show some pretty good mixing which is likely to produce
wind gusts in excess of 30 mph. Guidance is hinting at lows in the
30s across most of the area on Saturday morning, and this looks
reasonable given the strength of the cold advection. This could
easily be the coolest night of the season so far.
Temperatures slowly moderate Sunday through next Wednesday. The
highly amplified upper level pattern featuring a strong vortex just
north of the Great Lakes region and a longwave trof over the eastern
1/2 of the CONUS will slowly become more zonal through midweek. By
Wednesday the flow aloft should be nearly zonal and low level warm
advection will bring temperatures back to near or above normal.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014
Primary concern for tonight is thunderstorms. Best chances for
storms look like it will be from central Missouri, north of I-44
into the STL Metro area and then along and north of I-70 tonight.
IFR visibilities in heavy rain will accompany these storms at
times. Think flight conditions should be mainly VFR outside of
thunderstorms. Numerous thunderstorms are expected across the area
on Thursday as well. Expect VFR conditions and southwest flow to
prevail outside of storms.
Specifics for KSTL:
Occasional thunderstorms will affect the terminal tonight. IFR
visibilities in heavy rain will accompany these storms. Expect VFR
flight conditions to prevail outside of storms. Numerous
thunderstorms are expected on Thursday. Timing is uncertain,
however the best chance for storms will likely be during the
afternoon and evening hours.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday evening FOR Audrain MO-Boone
MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Gasconade MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
317 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
GIVEN LATEST TRENDS OF SD SFC LOW...SVR THREAT OVER THE NRN CWA FOR
THIS AFTN/EVENING LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AT
PRESENT SFC LOW WAS CENTERED OVER WRN SD WITH MOISTURE FEED RUNNING
UP THE MO VLY REGION INTO THE SYSTEM. THE RAP HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE
LAST SEVERAL RUNS TAKING THE POTENT UPPER LVL VORT MAX/SFC
REFLECTION TRIPLE POINT IN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK.
HOWEVER...CANNOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT SOME TSTM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
LATER ON...THUS WILL HAVE TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN SMALL POPS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MOVING ON...NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PCPN CHANCES WILL REVOLVE AROUND NEXT
COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. BOTH NAM/GFS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT SFC BNDRY WILL STRETCH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ERN CO...AND
SHOULD BE STAGNANT THRU THE DAY DUE TO PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT. BY WED
NIGHT THOUGH...A SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL ACT
TO HELP DISPLACE THE SFC FRONT EWD...AND IS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION TO ERN OK BY THUR AFTN. AT THIS POINT
FEEL THE ARW/NMM BEST REFLECTS ANTICIPATED PROGRESSION OF PCPN
ACTIVITY DURING THIS TIME...THUS HAVE GEARED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
AS FOR SVR POTENTIAL WED AFTN...STOUT INSTABILITY WILL BE ON HAND.
HOWEVER...BOTH NAM/GFS SEEM TO FAVOR SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE CWA WHERE EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE MOST PREVALENT.
NEVERTHELESS...THERE IS STILL AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE AREAS SOUTH OF
I-80 COULD SEE STRONG/NEAR SVR STORMS.
IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL...GIVEN SLOW NATURE OF PASSING BNDRY
COUPLED WITH PROLONGED VERTICAL ASCENT...IT IS QUITE PROBABLE A
FEW LOCATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WILL EXPERIENCE HEFTY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY EVENTS END THURSDAY AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED PDS AS BOTH GFS/ECM
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE WRN CONUS...EXPECT
INCREASING THKNS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THUS ALLOWING FOR A
RATHER NICE FALL TYPE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
MVFR CEILINGS AND LOCAL IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH SHRA/TSRA. PCPN MAY NOT AFFECT KOFK TOO MUCH TONIGHT BUT DID
ADD IN IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY ALSO
AFFECT KLNK AND KOMA LATER TONIGHT AFTER PCPN ENDS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
SEVERE RISK IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WAS CONDITIONAL AND AGREE WITH
THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. WE MAY STILL HAVE A FEW STRONG
STORMS AROUND. TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON PCPN. AHEAD
OF THE PCPN AREA IT HAS WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S IN FAR SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. WHERE PCPN IS CURRENTLY FALLING IT IS
IN THE 60S. EXPECT PCPN TO CONTINUE IN OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A BREAK LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING THEN MORE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DEALING WITH TIMING OF PRECIP EVENTS
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION.
INITIAL SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING WAS LIFTING INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 07Z. SUPPORTED BY
60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. CONVECTION HAD
WEAKENED AND DIMINISHED SINCE 05Z AS BAND OF STORMS MOVED AWAY
FROM SUPPORT OF 60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
06Z RAP TRANSLATES THIS BAND OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE EAST DURING
THE MORNING AND INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME WITH SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING INITIAL BAND OF
STORMS STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BY 18Z IN ADVANCE OF DRY LINE. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER
CLOUDS BREAK ENOUGH FOR SUN TO ADD TO DESTABILIZATION NEAR THE DRY
LINE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE.
AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. PRIMARY FORCING FINALLY SHIFTS EAST WITH THE UPPER WAVE
AND SURFACE FRONT LATE THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT
TERM WEATHER SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER
STRONG WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PULLS DOWN
COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. WARMER TEMPS RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AS MEAN TROUGH SETS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION
WITH RIDGING IN THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
MVFR CEILINGS AND LOCAL IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH SHRA/TSRA. PCPN MAY NOT AFFECT KOFK TOO MUCH TONIGHT BUT DID
ADD IN IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY ALSO
AFFECT KLNK AND KOMA LATER TONIGHT AFTER PCPN ENDS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
641 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DEALING WITH TIMING OF PRECIP EVENTS
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION.
INITIAL SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING WAS LIFTING INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 07Z. SUPPORTED BY
60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. CONVECTION HAD
WEAKENED AND DIMINISHED SINCE 05Z AS BAND OF STORMS MOVED AWAY
FROM SUPPORT OF 60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
06Z RAP TRANSLATES THIS BAND OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE EAST DURING
THE MORNING AND INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME WITH SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING INITIAL BAND OF
STORMS STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BY 18Z IN ADVANCE OF DRY LINE. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER
CLOUDS BREAK ENOUGH FOR SUN TO ADD TO DESTABILIZATION NEAR THE DRY
LINE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE.
AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. PRIMARY FORCING FINALLY SHIFTS EAST WITH THE UPPER WAVE
AND SURFACE FRONT LATE THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT
TERM WEATHER SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER
STRONG WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PULLS DOWN
COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. WARMER TEMPS RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AS MEAN TROUGH SETS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION
WITH RIDGING IN THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST THIS MORNING...AFFECTING KOFK BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z...AND KLNK
BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z. IF LINE HOLDS TOGETHER...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
STORMS AT KOMA AFTER 18Z. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN GENERALLY VFR
WITH MVFR VSBYS COMMON IN PRECIPITATION. EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF NO
PRECIP BETWEEN ABOUT 20Z AND 00Z...BUT MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FIRE ALONG A FRONT SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. SOME STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN KOFK NEAR 00Z...AND IN THE KLNK AND KOMA AREAS AFTER
04Z. ATTENDANT MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
...THE END OF THIS CURRENT STRETCH OF SUMMERLIKE WARMTH IS ON THE
HORIZON AND THE TRANSITION TO A TEMPORARY COOLDOWN WILL OCCUR WITH
MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS THRU THURSDAY...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
ALOFT: A POTENT VORT MAX WAS OVER THE PANHANDLE AT 09Z WITH A
NICE COMMA CLOUD IN SATELLITE. THIS VORT MAX WILL CONT DEPARTING
THE REGION TO THE NNE. THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY SLOT IN ITS WAKE
WILL WRAP INTO THE FCST AREA TODAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WAS
OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN W
TODAY...WITH THE SRN MOST VORT MAX MOVING INTO CO THIS EVENING AND
EJECTING NE ACROSS KS/NEB AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SURFACE: DEEPENING LOW PRES WAS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WILL HEAD
NNE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY-TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE A WEAK COOL
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL NEB/KS AND BECOME STATIONARY THRU
TONIGHT. AM NOT EVEN SURE THIS IS A TRUE FRONT. IT APPEARS TO BE
MORE OF A MODEST DRYLINE.
OVER THE PAST FEW HRS...THE HRRR HAS BEEN STELLAR WITH ITS
DEPICTION OF THE DECREASE IN SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY WITHIN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE COMMA CLOUD. FROM REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS IT
APPEARED THERE WAS TOO MUCH CAPPING ALOFT AND POOR MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES /LACK OF INSTABILITY/.
THRU SUNRISE: A FEW ISOLATED SHWRS WILL CONT TO POP UP HERE AND
THERE. WE ARE CURRENTLY MONITORING THE TSTM CLUSTER IN THE DDC
AREA. THE 06Z NAM/HRRR AND THE 00Z HI-RES NAM GUIDANCE ALL HAVE IT
AND TAKE IT NE INTO THE FCST AREA...MAINLY E OF HWY 281. SO WHILE
POPS WERE INITIALLY TRIMMED THRU MIDDAY BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS...THEY WERE RAMPED BACK UP BASED ON GOOD GUIDANCE HANDLING
OF THIS.
TODAY: SHWRS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER UNTIL NOON WITH A DRYING TREND
FROM W-E. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO TO REDEVELOP. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
ANOTHER DAY OF WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
HIGHS IS BELOW AVERAGE E OF HWY 281. IF MORNING CLOUDS/SHWRS ARE
MORE EXTENSIVE THAN EXPECTED...WE MAY BE TOO HIGH BY 3-5F DUE TO
DELAYED CLEARING.
WE WILL CLOSE THE BOOKS ON A COOLER THAN NORMAL SEP TODAY...BUT
THE LAST 4 DAYS OF AVERAGE TEMPS AT LEAST 10F ABOVE NORMAL PUT A
BIG DENT IN THE DOWNSIDE DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL. THAT RECORD COOL
STRETCH FROM THE 11TH-13TH WAS TOUGH TO RECOVER FROM FOR THE
MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMP.
DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY /E OF HWY 281/ IN
THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING`S SHWRS. COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF ALOFT...THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST
DESTABILIZATION WITH A SWATH OF MLCAPE UP TO 1250 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CINH...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE A COUPLE TSTMS. MOST OF THE
TSTMS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER ERN NEB/KS.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE 35-40 KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS. GIVEN A DECENT COMPONENT OF DEEP LAYER WINDS NORMAL TO
THE FORCING...AND THE EXPECTED LACK OF COMPETITION...STORMS COULD
BE SUPERCELLULAR IN CHARACTER. THE SKINNY CAPE PROFILE SUGGESTS
MODEST SEVERE HAIL BUT INTERNAL UPDRAFT ENHANCEMENT IN ANY
SUPERCELLS WILL TRUMP THIS. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF 1"
HAIL IN THE HWO. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND IS THERE BUT NOT AS
GREAT.
TONIGHT: THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROF AND THE ASSOCIATED EXIT
REGION OF AN 80 KT UPPER-LVL JET STREAK WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER ERN KS/NEB. HOWEVER...
THE WRN FRINGE OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD STILL AFFECT A FEW LOCATIONS
E OF HWY 281. MUCAPE NO GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. SHEAR IN THE
CLOUD- BEARING LAYER WILL BE NEAR 30 KTS. SO HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF NICKELS CANT BE RULED OUT.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHERWISE DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS...THEN CONDITIONS DRY OUT FOR THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY LINGER BRIEFLY IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS AND
NOSE OF THE LLVL JET. THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH
MILD TEMPERATURES...RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS. THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING CHANGES DURING THE DAY AS AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DEEPENS IN SOUTHEAST CO/OK PANHANDLE AREA WITH
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
NEB...AND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS. MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD AND POOLS ALONG THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS KS/SOUTHERN NEB WITH DPS AVERAGING IN THE
MID 60S. INSTABILITY INCREASES TO AROUND 2500 J/KG IN AFTN IN OUR
SE ZONES PER SREF AND NAM SUGGESTS THIS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AVERAGES 40KTS AND CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION/SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE AFTN/EVE WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARIES AND INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS AS JET CROSSES
KS AND THE TROUGH EDGES ONTO THE PLAINS. THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ARE
LOOKING WET WITH WAA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND GOOD
MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW LONG PCPN WILL LAST
ON THURSDAY WITH THE NAM SLOWER WITH TROUGH PROGRESSION AND CLOSES
OFF THE LOW AT H7...WHEREAS OTHER MODELS MAINTAIN MORE OF AN OPEN
WAVE/MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION DURING THE DAY. HARD TO SAY AT THIS
POINT...BUT THE MORNING HOURS LOOKING MORE WET THAN THE AFTERNOON
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL NOT TRY TO PINPOINT TIMING JUST YET
IN CASE SYSTEM SLOWS.
THE FORECAST DRIES OUT THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS WITH
COOLER TEMPS MOVING IN WITH CAA IN NW FLOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS FM THE UPPER MIDWEST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. OVER THE
WEEKEND HEIGHTS RISE AND TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE AS THE EASTERN
TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE NE CONUS/ONTARIO AND MEANDERS AROUND THE
HUDSON BAY. OVERALL TEMPS ARE LOOKING FAIRLY SEASONAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
THRU 11Z: VFR MID-LEVEL CIGS AROUND 8K FT...BUT THERE WILL BE A
2 HR WINDOW FOR MVFR VSBYS IN SCT +SHRA WITH POTENTIAL FOR G35
KTS. THE TIMING TOOL BASED ON RADAR SUGGESTS 630Z-0800Z AT EAR AND
07Z-09Z GRI. AFTER THE LINE OF SHWRS CLEARS THE TERMINALS...SKIES
WILL CLEAR WITH LLWS DEVELOPING. OUTSIDE OF THESE SHWRS...WINDS
WILL BE SE AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
TUE: VFR. LLWS ENDS 14Z-15Z. A FEW CU COULD DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. SE WINDS WILL BECOME S OR POSSIBLY SSW 10-15 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
THIS EVENING: VFR. WINDS WILL BECOME SSE 5-10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE:HIGH
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
307 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DEALING WITH TIMING OF PRECIP EVENTS
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION.
INITIAL SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING WAS LIFTING INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 07Z. SUPPORTED BY
60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. CONVECTION HAD
WEAKENED AND DIMINISHED SINCE 05Z AS BAND OF STORMS MOVED AWAY
FROM SUPPORT OF 60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
06Z RAP TRANSLATES THIS BAND OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE EAST DURING
THE MORNING AND INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME WITH SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING INITIAL BAND OF
STORMS STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BY 18Z IN ADVANCE OF DRY LINE. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER
CLOUDS BREAK ENOUGH FOR SUN TO ADD TO DESTABILIZATION NEAR THE DRY
LINE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE.
AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. PRIMARY FORCING FINALLY SHIFTS EAST WITH THE UPPER WAVE
AND SURFACE FRONT LATE THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT
TERM WEATHER SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER
STRONG WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PULLS DOWN
COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. WARMER TEMPS RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AS MEAN TROUGH SETS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION
WITH RIDGING IN THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
A WEAK BACK-DOOR FRONT THAT WAS PUSHING WEST TOWARD MISSOURI RIVER
SHOULD WASH OUT TONIGHT AS SRLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AHEAD OF A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...A FEW LOW CLOUDS WITH CIGS BELOW
FL010 WERE WORKING SW WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND THESE LOW
CIGS COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT KOMA AND KOFK. OTHERWISE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE STILL LIKELY TO ROLL INTO ERN NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MID TUESDAY MORNING AS TROUGH CONTINUES LIFTING NE. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS SOME CHANCE THESE STORMS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY...IT
APPEARED THERE WILL BE ONE WAVE WORKING TOWARD THE MO RIVER
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH REDEVELOPMENT THEN LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS TWO
AREAS. ONE AREA POSSIBLY NEAR KOFK BY LATE AFTN WITH THE OTHER
NEAR OR SW OF KLNK A LITTLE LATER WITH THAT SECOND AREA POSSIBLY
IMPACTING KLNK AND KOMA LONGER THAN THE FIRST AREA WOULD AT KOFK.
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN MORNING
CONVECTION ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER WELL THROUGH THE 70S. FOR NOW
JUST CONTINUED THE MENTION OF PROB30 WITH GUSTS TO 35 WITH LATTER
DAY CONVECTION CHANCES AT ALL SITES.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...CHERMOK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1253 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
SEVERAL MINOR UPDATES HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED SINCE 10 PM...PRIMARILY
FOR POPS/SKY. THE NARROW RAIN BAND IS BEGINNING TO FALL APART AS
INDICATED BY THE HRRR. SO POPS WERE BACKED DOWN A BIT AND WE ARE
PROBABLY STILL OVERDONE IF THE HRRR IS RIGHT. WE HAVE SEEN G36 KTS
AT MKC AND 39 KTS AT LBF. AN SPS WAS POSTED FOR FURNAS COUNTY AT
11 PM. WE WILL CONT TO MONITOR WIND GUSTS AND FURTHER SPECIAL WX
STMTS /SPS/ MAY BE NEEDED THRU THE NIGHT. BUT THIS WILL BE
CONTINGENT ON THE SHWRS HOLDING TOGETHER.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE SRN LOBE OF ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH
CO/NM...WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO
KEEP THINGS QUIET ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. AT THE SFC...HAVE HAD AT
TIMES GUSTY SRLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH LOW PRESSURE SET UP
OVER ERN CO...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST ACROSS NRN
NEB. STARTED THE DAY OUT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...BUT CU
DEVELOPED BY MIDDAY BRINGING AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. 3PM TEMPS SHOWING LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA.
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THAT PIECE OF ENERGY
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CO/NM...AND THE ACCOMPANYING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. 12Z MODELS AND LATEST RAP/HRRR DATA
CONTINUING THE TREND OF A LATER ARRIVAL OF PRECIP CHANCES...AND
KEPT THE 00-03Z HOURS DRY UNTIL THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES.
OVERALL...DIDNT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST...WITH POPS ESP RAMPING UP IN COVERAGE AFTER 06Z IN THE
WEST...THEN SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NEAR/AFTER SUNRISE...THE BETTER FOCUS FOR PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF
TO THE EAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS FAR SERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY CURRENTLY SITS TO THE W AND N OF THE
CWA...AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODELS VARY ON WHAT IS
AVAILABLE ACROSS THE CWA. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...SHOWING SOME MUCAPE VALUES NEAR/ABOVE 1000
J/KG...OTHERS ARE CLOSER TO 500 J/KG. SHOULD THOSE HIGHER VALUES
MATERIALIZE THERE WILL BE MORE CONCERN FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...THINKING THAT WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR HIGHS TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY...THE AREA SETTLES INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WHICH
SHOULD BRING PRIMARILY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
STARTING TUESDAY EVENING...WE WILL KNOW BY SUNSET IF SOME LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN FIRE ALONG SOUTHERN END OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SLOWING SLIDING EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY
IMPACT THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT STORM CHANCES IN THAT VICINITY
THROUGH EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WEDNESDAY PROBABLY STARTS OFF PRETTY QUIET BUT THE EMERGENCE OF A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...AND THE PRESENCE OF A LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MAKE
FOR INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. OF NOTE...
IS THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY
OR VERY EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY FIRING ALONG WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS SUPPOSED TO BE NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER BY
LATE AFTERNOON. CAPPING IS WEAK...AND INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONG AND
SUPPORTED OF SOME STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIGHT BE A LITTLE BIT EARLY TO REALLY
NAIL DOWN THIS POTENTIAL EXACTLY BUT ENOUGH IN THE MODELS TO
CONSIDER THE SEVERE RISK AND ITS POTENTIAL. BACKING FLOW NEAR
BOUNDARY COULD MAKE THINGS INTERESTING FOR A COUPLE HOURS IF THE
STORMS CAN FIRE. THAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
BOUNDARY AND FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT MOST. WHAT STORMS DO
DEVELOP...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AND SHIFT EAST
WITH LOW LEVEL JET.
THURSDAY IS A BIT OF QUANDARY AT THIS POINT. LATEST MODEL RUNS
PRETTY MUCH ALL CAME IN BACK FURTHER NORTH NEBRASKA. EVEN THE
FURTHEST NORTH GFS SHIFTED THINGS TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS IS
BASICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING
THE 1/2 HALF OF THE DAY. HAVE CONTINUED 20 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES...BUT THAT COULD GO UP QUITE A BIT IF THINGS PAN OUT
DIFFERENTLY. OF COURSE...IT COULD SHIFT BACK FURTHER SOUTH AND
BE MORE OF AN INFLUENCE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE
DAY. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE 60S. DON/T
BE SURPRISED IF PRECIPITATION CHANCES CHANGE FROM RUN-TO-RUN FOR
THURSDAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY IS CURRENTLY
PROJECTED AS DRY. THE UPPER FLOW STAYS NORTHWEST ALTHOUGH THERE
SIGNS IT MAY SHIFT WESTERLY WITH TIME. COUPLE OF HINTS AT MAYBE
A NORTHWEST FLOW SHOWER/SPRINKLE/TRACE EVENT...BUT WILL LEAVE
DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES/CONDITIONS LOOK VERY SEASONAL FOR
THE FIRST PART OF OCTOBER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
THRU 11Z: VFR MID-LEVEL CIGS AROUND 8K FT...BUT THERE WILL BE A
2 HR WINDOW FOR MVFR VSBYS IN SCT +SHRA WITH POTENTIAL FOR G35
KTS. THE TIMING TOOL BASED ON RADAR SUGGESTS 630Z-0800Z AT EAR AND
07Z-09Z GRI. AFTER THE LINE OF SHWRS CLEARS THE TERMINALS...SKIES
WILL CLEAR WITH LLWS DEVELOPING. OUTSIDE OF THESE SHWRS...WINDS
WILL BE SE AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
TUE: VFR. LLWS ENDS 14Z-15Z. A FEW CU COULD DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. SE WINDS WILL BECOME S OR POSSIBLY SSW 10-15 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
THIS EVENING: VFR. WINDS WILL BECOME SSE 5-10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE:HIGH
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1208 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
SEVERAL MINOR UPDATES HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED SINCE 10 PM...PRIMARILY
FOR POPS/SKY. THE NARROW RAIN BAND IS BEGINNING TO FALL APART AS
INDICATED BY THE HRRR. SO POPS WERE BACKED DOWN A BIT AND WE ARE
PROBABLY STILL OVERDONE IF THE HRRR IS RIGHT. WE HAVE SEEN G36 KTS
AT MKC AND 39 KTS AT LBF. AN SPS WAS POSTED FOR FURNAS COUNTY AT
11 PM. WE WILL CONT TO MONITOR WIND GUSTS AND FURTHER SPECIAL WX
STMTS /SPS/ MAY BE NEEDED THRU THE NIGHT. BUT THIS WILL BE
CONTINGENT ON THE SHWRS HOLDING TOGETHER.
NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE SRN LOBE OF ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH
CO/NM...WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO
KEEP THINGS QUIET ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. AT THE SFC...HAVE HAD AT
TIMES GUSTY SRLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH LOW PRESSURE SET UP
OVER ERN CO...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST ACROSS NRN
NEB. STARTED THE DAY OUT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...BUT CU
DEVELOPED BY MIDDAY BRINGING AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. 3PM TEMPS SHOWING LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA.
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THAT PIECE OF ENERGY
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CO/NM...AND THE ACCOMPANYING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. 12Z MODELS AND LATEST RAP/HRRR DATA
CONTINUING THE TREND OF A LATER ARRIVAL OF PRECIP CHANCES...AND
KEPT THE 00-03Z HOURS DRY UNTIL THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES.
OVERALL...DIDNT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST...WITH POPS ESP RAMPING UP IN COVERAGE AFTER 06Z IN THE
WEST...THEN SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NEAR/AFTER SUNRISE...THE BETTER FOCUS FOR PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF
TO THE EAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS FAR SERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY CURRENTLY SITS TO THE W AND N OF THE
CWA...AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODELS VARY ON WHAT IS
AVAILABLE ACROSS THE CWA. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...SHOWING SOME MUCAPE VALUES NEAR/ABOVE 1000
J/KG...OTHERS ARE CLOSER TO 500 J/KG. SHOULD THOSE HIGHER VALUES
MATERIALIZE THERE WILL BE MORE CONCERN FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...THINKING THAT WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR HIGHS TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY...THE AREA SETTLES INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WHICH
SHOULD BRING PRIMARILY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
STARTING TUESDAY EVENING...WE WILL KNOW BY SUNSET IF SOME LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN FIRE ALONG SOUTHERN END OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SLOWING SLIDING EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY
IMPACT THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT STORM CHANCES IN THAT VICINITY
THROUGH EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WEDNESDAY PROBABLY STARTS OFF PRETTY QUIET BUT THE EMERGENCE OF A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...AND THE PRESENCE OF A LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MAKE
FOR INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. OF NOTE...
IS THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY
OR VERY EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY FIRING ALONG WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS SUPPOSED TO BE NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER BY
LATE AFTERNOON. CAPPING IS WEAK...AND INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONG AND
SUPPORTED OF SOME STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIGHT BE A LITTLE BIT EARLY TO REALLY
NAIL DOWN THIS POTENTIAL EXACTLY BUT ENOUGH IN THE MODELS TO
CONSIDER THE SEVERE RISK AND ITS POTENTIAL. BACKING FLOW NEAR
BOUNDARY COULD MAKE THINGS INTERESTING FOR A COUPLE HOURS IF THE
STORMS CAN FIRE. THAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
BOUNDARY AND FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT MOST. WHAT STORMS DO
DEVELOP...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AND SHIFT EAST
WITH LOW LEVEL JET.
THURSDAY IS A BIT OF QUANDARY AT THIS POINT. LATEST MODEL RUNS
PRETTY MUCH ALL CAME IN BACK FURTHER NORTH NEBRASKA. EVEN THE
FURTHEST NORTH GFS SHIFTED THINGS TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS IS
BASICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING
THE 1/2 HALF OF THE DAY. HAVE CONTINUED 20 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES...BUT THAT COULD GO UP QUITE A BIT IF THINGS PAN OUT
DIFFERENTLY. OF COURSE...IT COULD SHIFT BACK FURTHER SOUTH AND
BE MORE OF AN INFLUENCE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE
DAY. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE 60S. DON/T
BE SURPRISED IF PRECIPITATION CHANCES CHANGE FROM RUN-TO-RUN FOR
THURSDAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY IS CURRENTLY
PROJECTED AS DRY. THE UPPER FLOW STAYS NORTHWEST ALTHOUGH THERE
SIGNS IT MAY SHIFT WESTERLY WITH TIME. COUPLE OF HINTS AT MAYBE
A NORTHWEST FLOW SHOWER/SPRINKLE/TRACE EVENT...BUT WILL LEAVE
DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES/CONDITIONS LOOK VERY SEASONAL FOR
THE FIRST PART OF OCTOBER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS THE AXIS OF A
LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE A CONCERN FOR A
FEW HOURS AS THE JET AXIS CONTINUES EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AS
WELL...LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. INCLUDED
VCTS IN THE TAF AS NAILING DOWN A TIME IS DIFFICULT. SO EVEN
THROUGH IT IS LIKELY WE WILL GET RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS...I OPTED
FOR A LONGER WINDOW OF VCTS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
310 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY AND
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. AS THE
WEEK UNFOLDS EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE...PLEASANT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNING. THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE
NIPPY...A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE. THE RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVER HEAD ON FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS OF 9Z THE RH AT WMC WAS
100 PERCENT AND 89 PERCENT AT WMC...WITH LIGHT AND CALM WINDS
RESPECTIVELY. SENSIBLE WEATHER-WISE...THE SCENARIO IS PRIMED FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT...BUT CAN BE HIT OR MISS BETWEEN BASINS...SO KEPT PATCHY
FOG IN THE GRIDS. THE PWS ARE STILL ENHANCED OVER NORTHERN NV TODAY
ON THE GFS40. THE HRRR AND NAM CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS INTO THE
LKN CWA...HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT QPF NOT ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TRANSITIONING TO NORTHERLY FLOW
ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY...WITH PWS DIPPING BELOW .30
OF AN INCH. MOST VALLEYS WILL REACH THE 60S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH TONOPAH AND GABBS FLIRTING WITH THE 70F BENCHMARK.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPCOMING DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER NEVADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR DRY CONDITIONS. THURSDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE JUST BELOW FREEZING AT MANY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER
VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST NEVADA. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE...INITIALLY PROVIDING A COOL DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 70S IN MOST AREAS...TO MAYBE
NEAR 80 DEGREES BY THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S
THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CIGS/VSBY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VCSH
WITH LIGHT SPRINKLES POSSIBLE AT THE KEKO/KELY TAF SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA. LATER IN THE WEEK A RIDGE WILL MOVE BACK
INTO THE WESTERN U.S. RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.
WIDESPREAD HAINES OF 2...AND WITH THIS WEEKENDS HEFTY QPF...IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE FIRE SEASON OF 2014 IS COMING TO A CLOSE FOR
THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
97/86/86/97
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
640 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...
UPDATE: FOG HAS BECOME QUITE DENSE OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC (WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS)... WARRANTING ISSUANCE OF A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM. VSBYS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
DURING THE 9AM-11AM TIME FRAME.
EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 222 AM TUESDAY...
TODAY... FIRST CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING IS THE DEGREE OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA THUS FAR. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS NOW HEADING EAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST... WITH THE VEIL OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS DEPARTING ALONG WITH IT. THE DAMP GROUND COMBINED
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT PATCHY/FLEETING NATURE OF THESE CONDITIONS
(SEVERAL SITES HAVE BOUNCED AROUND BETWEEN 1/4 MI AND 5 MI IN FOG
THE LAST FEW HRS) GIVES US PAUSE AS TO THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. THE HRRR DEPICTS A FAIRLY SOLID DECK OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
FORMING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE OBSERVED TRENDS. IF VSBYS DO DROP AND HOLD THERE FOR OVER AN
HOUR... THEY`RE LIKELY TO HOLD FIRM THROUGH MID MORNING... GIVEN THE
WEAK WIND FIELD THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET RESULTING IN
MINIMAL STIRRING/DISPERSION HORIZONTALLY OR VERTICALLY. WILL KEEP
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MID MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. THEN... ONCE HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT MIXING HELPS TO DISPERSE
THE FOG/STRATUS... EXPECT A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY...
WITH FLAT AFTERNOON STRATOCU LIKELY TO STAY SCATTERED AT WORST. WITH
THICKNESSES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS... STILL LOOK FOR HIGHS WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF 80.
FOR TONIGHT: THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE NE WELL OFF THE SE
COAST WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR SE TO MINIMIZE ANY IMPACT ON CENTRAL
NC. THE WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN HOLDS WITH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SPANNING THE AREA AND A VERY WEAK SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH
OVER PA/WV/VA... A REFLECTION OF THE CLIPPER MID LEVEL VORTEX NOW
OVER ERN MI THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MIDATLANTIC REGION REGION
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MODELS VARY IN THEIR IMPACTS ON
OUR WEATHER WITH THIS FEATURE... WITH THE NAM MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN
THE GFS IN TAKING A SLUG OF 850-700 MB MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE BUT IT IS SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM... SO WILL RETAIN A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA OVERNIGHT... AND LATER FORECASTS CAN INCREASE THIS COVERAGE IF
LATER GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE NAM. LOWS 57-60. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...
AS NOTED ABOVE... WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
MAINLY OVER THE EAST WED MORNING. THE PRESENCE OR LACK OF SUCH
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH FOG FORMS WED MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME LIGHT FOG TO START THE DAY... AND PERHAPS MORE DENSE IF
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER-ASSOCIATED CLOUDS DO NOT HAPPEN.
OTHERWISE... EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. THE CLIPPER LOW
WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND AS THE STRONG VORTICITY MAX ROUNDS ITS
BASE... SHIFTING OFF THE NJ COAST... AND WE SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE
FLAT DAYTIME CUMULUS FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE
LOW. MODELS SHOW WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
LATE... BETWEEN THE DEPARTING CLIPPER AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
COVERING THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS LATE WED/WED NIGHT.
WHILE MODELS SHOW A MINOR PERTURBATION TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WED NIGHT... THIS SHOULD BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE
WITH DEEP DRY AIR MOVING IN. EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH WED NIGHT.
THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO START WED ABOUT 10 M ABOVE NORMAL...
SUPPORTING HIGHS ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL... 80-84. SOME
CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST WHERE MODELS
INDICATE AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT GENERATED BY
LIGHT BUT CONFLUENT AND UPSLOPE-DIRECTED LOW LEVEL FLOW. LOWS WITHIN
A COUPLE DEGREES OF 60. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY...WITH THE AXIS
MOVING EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO FORECAST
VERY MINOR QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH
THE GFS FORECASTING THIS THURSDAY AND THE NAM MORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS DOES HAVE A RELATIVE MAXIMUM OF 850MB THETA-E AIR OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY WITH WEAK 850MB LIFT...BUT HEIGHTS
ALOFT ARE RISING AND ANY LOW-LEVEL FORCING WITH ANY SURFACE BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE WEAK. LIFTED INDICES ARE ABOVE 0C...AND MLCAPE IN THE
LOWEST KM DOES NOT REGISTER AS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS APPEAR CAPPED. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES...POSSIBLY A SHOWER COULD DRIFT SOUTHEAST FOLLOWING THE
THERMAL WIND FROM HIGHER TERRAIN AND GET CLOSE TO THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE IN SINGLE FIGURES
IN BOTH THE MAV AND THE MET. WITH AT LEAST A PARTLY SUNNY SKY
EXPECTED...1000-850MB THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST LOWER TO MID 80S FOR
HIGHS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH MAV AND MET MOS GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR 60 IN THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE
NIGHT...LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE AND POSSIBLY ON THE HIGHER END OF THE
LOWER 60S TOWARD THE TRIAD AS THE WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE START TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF AN
ELONGATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY
00Z SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. ONE TREND
HAS BEEN FOR THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED...
WHICH...IF THE TREND CONTINUES...COULD SLOW THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. LAPSE RATES ON COARSE GFS
AND ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC AT BEST...SO
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED. STILL...WITH WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE
INCREASING TO AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE 30KT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY STRONGER STORM COULD HAVE A GUSTY
WIND...THOUGH NOT CONFIDENT CURENTLY IN THE PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
BE FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH THE ECMWF DOES CONTINUE
TO FORECAST GREATER DIGGING WITH UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND EAST ACROSS AREAS JUST NORTH OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...THE TREND OF THIS WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED...BUT CURRENTLY THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW ON THE ECMWF STAYS NORTH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY
OR SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...SOME JET STREAK CIRRUS COULD OCCUR IF
THE GFS AND ECMWF UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FORECASTS VERIFY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE JET AXIS ALOFT.
THE ECMWF IS ALSO MORE AMPLIFIED WITH ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF MID-
LEVEL WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...THIS ONE APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MONDAY. THE GFS IS DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING...
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF A SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THE MID-LEVEL
WAVE AND ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF...IF THERE IS ANY
PRECIPITATION MONDAY...THE THOUGHT IS IT WOULD BE MID-LEVEL DRIVEN
AND MOSTLY LIGHT. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL TREND A LITTLE MORE
PESSIMISTIC ON THE LAST DAY OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...INCREASING
CLOUDS BUT KEEPING THE OVERALL FORECAST DRY.
AFTER HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS CHILLY 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES INTO THE 1340S...THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW 40S OVER
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MODEST WARMING FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK AT LEAST IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM TUESDAY...
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC
THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z THIS MORNING... WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TO FOLLOW
BY LATE MORNING... WHICH WILL HOLD THROUGH 04Z (MIDNIGHT TONIGHT).
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THE RESULTANT CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE LED TO LOW STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING. THESE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUOUS... WITH
AVIATION CONDITIONS PERIODICALLY SWINGING WILDLY BETWEEN LIFR AND
MVFR... MAKING THE TAFS CHALLENGING THIS MORNING. PILOTS SHOULD BE
PARTICULARLY ALERT FOR POSSIBLE VFR HOLES WITHIN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE... ANY CIGS SHOULD LIFT AND BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY 15Z OR 16Z... WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT... WE EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW IFR OR LIFR FOG LATE IN THE TAF VALID
PERIOD... WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE (MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST)
MOSTLY UNDER 5 KTS TODAY/TONIGHT.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z WED MORNING... SUB-VFR FOG EARLY WED MORNING
SHOULD MIX OUT BY 15Z. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRI... ALTHOUGH SHALLOW IFR GROUND FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE 08Z-13Z EACH MORNING THU AND FRI. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/STORMS FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS SAT. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>077-083>086-088.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
636 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW THIS FRONT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION IS OFF THE COAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST. 11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF
STRATUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHILE SURFACE OBS SHOW A LARGE
RANGE IN VISIBILITIES. PATCHY FOG AND SCT-V-BKN STRATUS WILL PERSIST
FOR A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LAST OF THE -RA/DZ IS EXITING THE COAST WITH CLEARING SKIES
FROM WEST TO EAST. POCKETS OF STRATO-CUMULUS WILL PERSIST A WHILE
LONGER...WHILE STRATUS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING. STRATUS AND FOG ARE A BETTER BET FARTHER
INLAND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THOSE AREAS WHERE SKIES ALREADY CLEARED
AND VERY LIGHT WINDS. ANY STRATUS/FOG WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES INTO THE LOWER COLUMN RESULTING IN
A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 80F MOST
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWS AROUND 60 INLAND...TO THE LOWER
60S AT THE COAST. EXPECT STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP INLAND AGAIN TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN FROM THE
NORTH INTO THE CAROLINAS REMAINING FAIRLY WEAK WED THROUGH THURS.
AT THE SAME TIME A FLAT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHARPEN AS RIDGE
BUILDS UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT THROUGH MID WEEK. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE E-SE AND LIGHTENING UP AS HIGH
SHIFTS EAST THROUGH TIME. PCP WATER VALUES DOWN LESS THAN AN INCH
MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY DUE TO A LITTLE IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH IN
THE UPPER LEVELS LATER ON WED AND SOME CU DEVELOPMENT IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE BOTH AFTERNOONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND WARM TEMPS AS RIDGE BUILDS AND HEIGHTS RISE ALONG WITH EARLY
FALL SUNSHINE.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S ACROSS THE SC PEE DEE
REGION...LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE EXCEPT A LITTLE COOLER AT THE BEACHES
WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN THEIR SEASONAL DROP...NOW IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH MID-
UPPER 60S AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH FRI AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. THIS INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AND POTENTIAL FOR SHWRS THROUGH THE DAY. PCP WATER VALUES AS LOW
AS AN INCH FRI MORNING WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES UP TO 2
INCHES BY AFTN OVER INLAND AREAS AS LLJ UP TO 30 KTS PROVIDES A
DECENT FEED OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS INLAND BY AFTN AND REACHING THE COAST
BY EVENING AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
PUSHING FRONT EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE TROUGH DOES BECOME
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS REACHING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS MAY DELAY THE
CLEARING ON SATURDAY BUT OVERALL EXPECT A DEEP DRY W-NW FLOW TO
PRODUCE SOME EXCEPTIONAL FALL LIKE WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEWPOINT TEMPS MAY END UP BELOW
50 DEGREES BY SUNDAY. THIS DRY AIR WILL ALLOW LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS
IN TEMPS WITH COOL START TO THE MORNINGS SUN AND MON AND TEMPS
REACHING INTO THE MID 70S MOST PLACES FOR AFTN HIGHS WITH BRIGHT
SUNSHINE. PCP WATER VALUES WILL PLUMMET TO A HALF INCH OR LESS BY
SUNDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE DOWN IN THE 50S SUN AND
MON.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE -RA FROM EARLIER TONIGHT HAS MOSTLY PUSHED
OFFSHORE...AND THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND OFF THE COAST.
SURFACE OBS INDICATE FOG IS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS
WHERE THE WINDS HAVE GONE CALM AND THE MID LEVEL CIGS ARE NO MORE.
THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED TEMPO IFR VSBYS FOR KLBT/KFLO EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND FOLLOWS SOME OF THE LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOWING
FOG/STRATUS EXPANDING INLAND AFTER 09Z. STILL THINK THE DEVELOPING
LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP WINDS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FOG...BUT SOME TEMPO IFR
CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT BY DAYBREAK. WILL KEEP SCT 500 FT STRATUS
AT THE COAST ATTM. DURING THE DAY... DRIER AIR BEHIND THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST FOR THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KT DURING
THE DAY...BECOMING LIGHT/VRB AFTER 00Z WED.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS ARE LIKELY
AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AWAY FROM THE
COAST...AND AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR THE COAST. SEAS ARE LIKELY 3-5 FT
AWAY FROM THE COAST TO 2 FT NEAR SHORE.
PREVIOUS FORECAST...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH LOW PRESSURE
POSITIONED SOUTH...THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST...OF THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE MORE OF A FACTOR ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND
FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS ALL WATERS
BY 00Z WED WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL BE LOWEST ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE BRUNSWICK WATERS WHERE THE
FLOW WILL BE OFFSHORE. LIKEWISE...EXPECT SEAS TO BE HIGHER IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OUTER FRYING PAN SHOALS WATERS WITH SHORTER PERIOD
SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT IN A RELAXED GRADIENT..STARTING OUT FROM THE NORTHEAST AND
VEERING AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE AND EVENTUALLY SE BY FRI
MORNING AS THE HIGH MIGRATES EASTWARD WITH TIME. NEAR SHORE WINDS
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE SEA BREEZE CAUSING A SLIGHT SPIKE IN
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOONS. SEAS WILL BASICALLY BE 3 FT OR
LESS...SUBSIDING A BIT FROM WED TO THURS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL START THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OFF SHORE. AN INCREASING
RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT SE WINDS TO INCREASE UP TO
15 TO 20 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH BY FRI EVE. THIS WILL KICK SEAS UP
FROM AROUND 2 FT EARLY FRI TO 3 TO 5 FT BY SAT MORNING. MAY RUN
INTO A FEW HOURS OF SCA CONDITIONS IN STRONGEST ON SHORE PUSH
RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY MORNING THE
WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NW REMAINING UP TO 15 KTS INITIALLY
BUT LIGHTENING UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE OFF SHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP HIGHER SEAS WELL OFF SHORE BY LATE SATURDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT
LOCAL WATERS DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SAT EVENING.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR/SRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
350 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF SHORE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOL AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...THE LAST OF THE -RA/DZ IS EXITING THE COAST
WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST. POCKETS OF STRATO-CUMULUS
WILL PERSIST A WHILE LONGER...WHILE STRATUS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. STRATUS AND FOG ARE A BETTER BET FARTHER
INLAND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THOSE AREAS WHERE SKIES ALREADY CLEARED
AND VERY LIGHT WINDS. ANY STRATUS/FOG WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES INTO THE LOWER COLUMN RESULTING IN
A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 80F MOST
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWS AROUND 60 INLAND...TO THE LOWER
60S AT THE COAST. EXPECT STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP INLAND AGAIN TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN FROM THE
NORTH INTO THE CAROLINAS REMAINING FAIRLY WEAK WED THROUGH THURS.
AT THE SAME TIME A FLAT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHARPEN AS RIDGE
BUILDS UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT THROUGH MID WEEK. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE E-SE AND LIGHTENING UP AS HIGH
SHIFTS EAST THROUGH TIME. PCP WATER VALUES DOWN LESS THAN AN INCH
MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY DUE TO A LITTLE IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH IN
THE UPPER LEVELS LATER ON WED AND SOME CU DEVELOPMENT IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE BOTH AFTERNOONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND WARM TEMPS AS RIDGE BUILDS AND HEIGHTS RISE ALONG WITH EARLY
FALL SUNSHINE.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S ACROSS THE SC PEE DEE
REGION...LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE EXCEPT A LITTLE COOLER AT THE BEACHES
WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN THEIR SEASONAL DROP...NOW IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH MID-
UPPER 60S AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH FRI AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. THIS INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AND POTENTIAL FOR SHWRS THROUGH THE DAY. PCP WATER VALUES AS LOW
AS AN INCH FRI MORNING WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES UP TO 2
INCHES BY AFTN OVER INLAND AREAS AS LLJ UP TO 30 KTS PROVIDES A
DECENT FEED OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS INLAND BY AFTN AND REACHING THE COAST
BY EVENING AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
PUSHING FRONT EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE TROUGH DOES BECOME
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS REACHING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS MAY DELAY THE
CLEARING ON SATURDAY BUT OVERALL EXPECT A DEEP DRY W-NW FLOW TO
PRODUCE SOME EXCEPTIONAL FALL LIKE WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEWPOINT TEMPS MAY END UP BELOW
50 DEGREES BY SUNDAY. THIS DRY AIR WILL ALLOW LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS
IN TEMPS WITH COOL START TO THE MORNINGS SUN AND MON AND TEMPS
REACHING INTO THE MID 70S MOST PLACES FOR AFTN HIGHS WITH BRIGHT
SUNSHINE. PCP WATER VALUES WILL PLUMMET TO A HALF INCH OR LESS BY
SUNDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE DOWN IN THE 50S SUN AND
MON.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE -RA FROM EARLIER TONIGHT HAS MOSTLY PUSHED
OFFSHORE...AND THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND OFF THE COAST.
SURFACE OBS INDICATE FOG IS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS
WHERE THE WINDS HAVE GONE CALM AND THE MID LEVEL CIGS ARE NO MORE.
THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED TEMPO IFR VSBYS FOR KLBT/KFLO EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND FOLLOWS SOME OF THE LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOWING
FOG/STRATUS EXPANDING INLAND AFTER 09Z. STILL THINK THE DEVELOPING
LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP WINDS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FOG...BUT SOME TEMPO IFR
CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT BY DAYBREAK. WILL KEEP SCT 500 FT STRATUS
AT THE COAST ATTM. DURING THE DAY... DRIER AIR BEHIND THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST FOR THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KT DURING
THE DAY...BECOMING LIGHT/VRB AFTER 00Z WED.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH LOW PRESSURE
POSITIONED SOUTH...THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST...OF THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE MORE OF A FACTOR ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND
FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS ALL WATERS
BY 00Z WED WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL BE LOWEST ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE BRUNSWICK WATERS WHERE THE
FLOW WILL BE OFFSHORE. LIKEWISE...EXPECT SEAS TO BE HIGHER IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OUTER FRYING PAN SHOALS WATERS WITH SHORTER PERIOD
SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT IN A RELAXED GRADIENT..STARTING OUT FROM THE NORTHEAST AND
VEERING AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE AND EVENTUALLY SE BY FRI
MORNING AS THE HIGH MIGRATES EASTWARD WITH TIME. NEAR SHORE WINDS
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE SEA BREEZE CAUSING A SLIGHT SPIKE IN
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOONS. SEAS WILL BASICALLY BE 3 FT OR
LESS...SUBSIDING A BIT FROM WED TO THURS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL START THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OFF SHORE. AN INCREASING
RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT SE WINDS TO INCREASE UP TO
15 TO 20 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH BY FRI EVE. THIS WILL KICK SEAS UP
FROM AROUND 2 FT EARLY FRI TO 3 TO 5 FT BY SAT MORNING. MAY RUN
INTO A FEW HOURS OF SCA CONDITIONS IN STRONGEST ON SHORE PUSH
RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY MORNING THE
WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NW REMAINING UP TO 15 KTS INITIALLY
BUT LIGHTENING UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE OFF SHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP HIGHER SEAS WELL OFF SHORE BY LATE SATURDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT
LOCAL WATERS DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SAT EVENING.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR/SRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
330 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...
UPDATE: FOG HAS BECOME QUITE DENSE OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC (WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS)... WARRANTING ISSUANCE OF A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM. VSBYS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
DURING THE 9AM-11AM TIME FRAME.
EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 222 AM TUESDAY...
TODAY... FIRST CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING IS THE DEGREE OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA THUS FAR. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS NOW HEADING EAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST... WITH THE VEIL OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS DEPARTING ALONG WITH IT. THE DAMP GROUND COMBINED
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT PATCHY/FLEETING NATURE OF THESE CONDITIONS
(SEVERAL SITES HAVE BOUNCED AROUND BETWEEN 1/4 MI AND 5 MI IN FOG
THE LAST FEW HRS) GIVES US PAUSE AS TO THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. THE HRRR DEPICTS A FAIRLY SOLID DECK OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
FORMING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE OBSERVED TRENDS. IF VSBYS DO DROP AND HOLD THERE FOR OVER AN
HOUR... THEY`RE LIKELY TO HOLD FIRM THROUGH MID MORNING... GIVEN THE
WEAK WIND FIELD THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET RESULTING IN
MINIMAL STIRRING/DISPERSION HORIZONTALLY OR VERTICALLY. WILL KEEP
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MID MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. THEN... ONCE HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT MIXING HELPS TO DISPERSE
THE FOG/STRATUS... EXPECT A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY...
WITH FLAT AFTERNOON STRATOCU LIKELY TO STAY SCATTERED AT WORST. WITH
THICKNESSES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS... STILL LOOK FOR HIGHS WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF 80.
FOR TONIGHT: THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE NE WELL OFF THE SE
COAST WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR SE TO MINIMIZE ANY IMPACT ON CENTRAL
NC. THE WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN HOLDS WITH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SPANNING THE AREA AND A VERY WEAK SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH
OVER PA/WV/VA... A REFLECTION OF THE CLIPPER MID LEVEL VORTEX NOW
OVER ERN MI THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MIDATLANTIC REGION REGION
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MODELS VARY IN THEIR IMPACTS ON
OUR WEATHER WITH THIS FEATURE... WITH THE NAM MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN
THE GFS IN TAKING A SLUG OF 850-700 MB MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE BUT IT IS SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM... SO WILL RETAIN A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA OVERNIGHT... AND LATER FORECASTS CAN INCREASE THIS COVERAGE IF
LATER GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE NAM. LOWS 57-60. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...
AS NOTED ABOVE... WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
MAINLY OVER THE EAST WED MORNING. THE PRESENCE OR LACK OF SUCH
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH FOG FORMS WED MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME LIGHT FOG TO START THE DAY... AND PERHAPS MORE DENSE IF
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER-ASSOCIATED CLOUDS DO NOT HAPPEN.
OTHERWISE... EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. THE CLIPPER LOW
WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND AS THE STRONG VORTICITY MAX ROUNDS ITS
BASE... SHIFTING OFF THE NJ COAST... AND WE SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE
FLAT DAYTIME CUMULUS FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE
LOW. MODELS SHOW WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
LATE... BETWEEN THE DEPARTING CLIPPER AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
COVERING THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS LATE WED/WED NIGHT.
WHILE MODELS SHOW A MINOR PERTURBATION TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WED NIGHT... THIS SHOULD BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE
WITH DEEP DRY AIR MOVING IN. EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH WED NIGHT.
THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO START WED ABOUT 10 M ABOVE NORMAL...
SUPPORTING HIGHS ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL... 80-84. SOME
CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST WHERE MODELS
INDICATE AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT GENERATED BY
LIGHT BUT CONFLUENT AND UPSLOPE-DIRECTED LOW LEVEL FLOW. LOWS WITHIN
A COUPLE DEGREES OF 60. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY...WITH THE AXIS
MOVING EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO FORECAST
VERY MINOR QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH
THE GFS FORECASTING THIS THURSDAY AND THE NAM MORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS DOES HAVE A RELATIVE MAXIMUM OF 850MB THETA-E AIR OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY WITH WEAK 850MB LIFT...BUT HEIGHTS
ALOFT ARE RISING AND ANY LOW-LEVEL FORCING WITH ANY SURFACE BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE WEAK. LIFTED INDICES ARE ABOVE 0C...AND MLCAPE IN THE
LOWEST KM DOES NOT REGISTER AS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS APPEAR CAPPED. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES...POSSIBLY A SHOWER COULD DRIFT SOUTHEAST FOLLOWING THE
THERMAL WIND FROM HIGHER TERRAIN AND GET CLOSE TO THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE IN SINGLE FIGURES
IN BOTH THE MAV AND THE MET. WITH AT LEAST A PARTLY SUNNY SKY
EXPECTED...1000-850MB THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST LOWER TO MID 80S FOR
HIGHS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH MAV AND MET MOS GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR 60 IN THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE
NIGHT...LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE AND POSSIBLY ON THE HIGHER END OF THE
LOWER 60S TOWARD THE TRIAD AS THE WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE START TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF AN
ELONGATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY
00Z SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. ONE TREND
HAS BEEN FOR THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED...
WHICH...IF THE TREND CONTINUES...COULD SLOW THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. LAPSE RATES ON COARSE GFS
AND ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC AT BEST...SO
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED. STILL...WITH WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE
INCREASING TO AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE 30KT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY STRONGER STORM COULD HAVE A GUSTY
WIND...THOUGH NOT CONFIDENT CURENTLY IN THE PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
BE FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH THE ECMWF DOES CONTINUE
TO FORECAST GREATER DIGGING WITH UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND EAST ACROSS AREAS JUST NORTH OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...THE TREND OF THIS WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED...BUT CURRENTLY THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW ON THE ECMWF STAYS NORTH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY
OR SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...SOME JET STREAK CIRRUS COULD OCCUR IF
THE GFS AND ECMWF UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FORECASTS VERIFY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE JET AXIS ALOFT.
THE ECMWF IS ALSO MORE AMPLIFIED WITH ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF MID-
LEVEL WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...THIS ONE APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MONDAY. THE GFS IS DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING...
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF A SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THE MID-LEVEL
WAVE AND ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF...IF THERE IS ANY
PRECIPITATION MONDAY...THE THOUGHT IS IT WOULD BE MID-LEVEL DRIVEN
AND MOSTLY LIGHT. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL TREND A LITTLE MORE
PESSIMISTIC ON THE LAST DAY OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...INCREASING
CLOUDS BUT KEEPING THE OVERALL FORECAST DRY.
AFTER HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS CHILLY 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES INTO THE 1340S...THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW 40S OVER
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MODEST WARMING FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK AT LEAST IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM TUESDAY...
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC
THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z THIS MORNING... WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TO FOLLOW
BY LATE MORNING... WHICH WILL HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD (06Z WED). THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING... TAKING WITH
IT THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS ANY THREAT OF ADDITIONAL PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN. THE CLEARING CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL FOSTER FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING. THESE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS HOWEVER WILL BE FLEETING... WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG NOT A
SOLID DECK BUT IN DISCONTINUOUS PATCHES... MAKING THE TAFS
CHALLENGING THIS MORNING. PILOTS SHOULD BE PARTICULARLY ALERT FOR
POSSIBLE VFR HOLES WITHIN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE... ANY CIGS SHOULD BREAK UP BY 15Z OR 16Z... WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE (MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST)
MOSTLY UNDER 5 KTS TODAY/TONIGHT.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY WED MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRI... ALTHOUGH SHALLOW IFR GROUND FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE 08Z-13Z EACH MORNING WED THROUGH FRI. A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS SAT. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM
EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>077.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
300 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 222 AM TUESDAY...
TODAY... FIRST CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING IS THE DEGREE OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA THUS FAR. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS NOW HEADING EAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST... WITH THE VEIL OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS DEPARTING ALONG WITH IT. THE DAMP GROUND COMBINED
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT PATCHY/FLEETING NATURE OF THESE CONDITIONS
(SEVERAL SITES HAVE BOUNCED AROUND BETWEEN 1/4 MI AND 5 MI IN FOG
THE LAST FEW HRS) GIVES US PAUSE AS TO THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. THE HRRR DEPICTS A FAIRLY SOLID DECK OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
FORMING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE OBSERVED TRENDS. IF VSBYS DO DROP AND HOLD THERE FOR OVER AN
HOUR... THEY`RE LIKELY TO HOLD FIRM THROUGH MID MORNING... GIVEN THE
WEAK WIND FIELD THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET RESULTING IN
MINIMAL STIRRING/DISPERSION HORIZONTALLY OR VERTICALLY. WILL KEEP
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MID MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. THEN... ONCE HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT MIXING HELPS TO DISPERSE
THE FOG/STRATUS... EXPECT A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY...
WITH FLAT AFTERNOON STRATOCU LIKELY TO STAY SCATTERED AT WORST. WITH
THICKNESSES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS... STILL LOOK FOR HIGHS WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF 80.
FOR TONIGHT: THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE NE WELL OFF THE SE
COAST WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR SE TO MINIMIZE ANY IMPACT ON CENTRAL
NC. THE WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN HOLDS WITH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SPANNING THE AREA AND A VERY WEAK SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH
OVER PA/WV/VA... A REFLECTION OF THE CLIPPER MID LEVEL VORTEX NOW
OVER ERN MI THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MIDATLANTIC REGION REGION
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MODELS VARY IN THEIR IMPACTS ON
OUR WEATHER WITH THIS FEATURE... WITH THE NAM MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN
THE GFS IN TAKING A SLUG OF 850-700 MB MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE BUT IT IS SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM... SO WILL RETAIN A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA OVERNIGHT... AND LATER FORECASTS CAN INCREASE THIS COVERAGE IF
LATER GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE NAM. LOWS 57-60. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...
AS NOTED ABOVE... WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
MAINLY OVER THE EAST WED MORNING. THE PRESENCE OR LACK OF SUCH
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH FOG FORMS WED MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME LIGHT FOG TO START THE DAY... AND PERHAPS MORE DENSE IF
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER-ASSOCIATED CLOUDS DO NOT HAPPEN.
OTHERWISE... EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. THE CLIPPER LOW
WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND AS THE STRONG VORTICITY MAX ROUNDS ITS
BASE... SHIFTING OFF THE NJ COAST... AND WE SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE
FLAT DAYTIME CUMULUS FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE
LOW. MODELS SHOW WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
LATE... BETWEEN THE DEPARTING CLIPPER AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
COVERING THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS LATE WED/WED NIGHT.
WHILE MODELS SHOW A MINOR PERTURBATION TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WED NIGHT... THIS SHOULD BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE
WITH DEEP DRY AIR MOVING IN. EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH WED NIGHT.
THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO START WED ABOUT 10 M ABOVE NORMAL...
SUPPORTING HIGHS ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL... 80-84. SOME
CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST WHERE MODELS
INDICATE AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT GENERATED BY
LIGHT BUT CONFLUENT AND UPSLOPE-DIRECTED LOW LEVEL FLOW. LOWS WITHIN
A COUPLE DEGREES OF 60. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY...WITH THE AXIS
MOVING EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO FORECAST
VERY MINOR QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH
THE GFS FORECASTING THIS THURSDAY AND THE NAM MORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS DOES HAVE A RELATIVE MAXIMUM OF 850MB THETA-E AIR OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY WITH WEAK 850MB LIFT...BUT HEIGHTS
ALOFT ARE RISING AND ANY LOW-LEVEL FORCING WITH ANY SURFACE BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE WEAK. LIFTED INDICES ARE ABOVE 0C...AND MLCAPE IN THE
LOWEST KM DOES NOT REGISTER AS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS APPEAR CAPPED. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES...POSSIBLY A SHOWER COULD DRIFT SOUTHEAST FOLLOWING THE
THERMAL WIND FROM HIGHER TERRAIN AND GET CLOSE TO THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE IN SINGLE FIGURES
IN BOTH THE MAV AND THE MET. WITH AT LEAST A PARTLY SUNNY SKY
EXPECTED...1000-850MB THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST LOWER TO MID 80S FOR
HIGHS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH MAV AND MET MOS GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR 60 IN THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE
NIGHT...LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE AND POSSIBLY ON THE HIGHER END OF THE
LOWER 60S TOWARD THE TRIAD AS THE WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE START TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF AN
ELONGATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY
00Z SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. ONE TREND
HAS BEEN FOR THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED...
WHICH...IF THE TREND CONTINUES...COULD SLOW THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. LAPSE RATES ON COARSE GFS
AND ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC AT BEST...SO
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED. STILL...WITH WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE
INCREASING TO AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE 30KT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY STRONGER STORM COULD HAVE A GUSTY
WIND...THOUGH NOT CONFIDENT CURENTLY IN THE PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
BE FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH THE ECMWF DOES CONTINUE
TO FORECAST GREATER DIGGING WITH UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND EAST ACROSS AREAS JUST NORTH OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...THE TREND OF THIS WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED...BUT CURRENTLY THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW ON THE ECMWF STAYS NORTH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY
OR SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...SOME JET STREAK CIRRUS COULD OCCUR IF
THE GFS AND ECMWF UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FORECASTS VERIFY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE JET AXIS ALOFT.
THE ECMWF IS ALSO MORE AMPLIFIED WITH ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF MID-
LEVEL WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...THIS ONE APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MONDAY. THE GFS IS DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING...
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF A SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THE MID-LEVEL
WAVE AND ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF...IF THERE IS ANY
PRECIPITATION MONDAY...THE THOUGHT IS IT WOULD BE MID-LEVEL DRIVEN
AND MOSTLY LIGHT. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL TREND A LITTLE MORE
PESSIMISTIC ON THE LAST DAY OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...INCREASING
CLOUDS BUT KEEPING THE OVERALL FORECAST DRY.
AFTER HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS CHILLY 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES INTO THE 1340S...THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW 40S OVER
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MODEST WARMING FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK AT LEAST IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM TUESDAY...
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC
THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z THIS MORNING... WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TO FOLLOW
BY LATE MORNING... WHICH WILL HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD (06Z WED). THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING... TAKING WITH
IT THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS ANY THREAT OF ADDITIONAL PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN. THE CLEARING CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL FOSTER FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING. THESE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS HOWEVER WILL BE FLEETING... WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG NOT A
SOLID DECK BUT IN DISCONTINUOUS PATCHES... MAKING THE TAFS
CHALLENGING THIS MORNING. PILOTS SHOULD BE PARTICULARLY ALERT FOR
POSSIBLE VFR HOLES WITHIN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE... ANY CIGS SHOULD BREAK UP BY 15Z OR 16Z... WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE (MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST)
MOSTLY UNDER 5 KTS TODAY/TONIGHT.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY WED MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRI... ALTHOUGH SHALLOW IFR GROUND FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE 08Z-13Z EACH MORNING WED THROUGH FRI. A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS SAT. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
245 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 222 AM TUESDAY...
TODAY... FIRST CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING IS THE DEGREE OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA THUS FAR. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS NOW HEADING EAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST... WITH THE VEIL OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS DEPARTING ALONG WITH IT. THE DAMP GROUND COMBINED
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT PATCHY/FLEETING NATURE OF THESE CONDITIONS
(SEVERAL SITES HAVE BOUNCED AROUND BETWEEN 1/4 MI AND 5 MI IN FOG
THE LAST FEW HRS) GIVES US PAUSE AS TO THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. THE HRRR DEPICTS A FAIRLY SOLID DECK OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
FORMING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE OBSERVED TRENDS. IF VSBYS DO DROP AND HOLD THERE FOR OVER AN
HOUR... THEY`RE LIKELY TO HOLD FIRM THROUGH MID MORNING... GIVEN THE
WEAK WIND FIELD THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET RESULTING IN
MINIMAL STIRRING/DISPERSION HORIZONTALLY OR VERTICALLY. WILL KEEP
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MID MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. THEN... ONCE HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT MIXING HELPS TO DISPERSE
THE FOG/STRATUS... EXPECT A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY...
WITH FLAT AFTERNOON STRATOCU LIKELY TO STAY SCATTERED AT WORST. WITH
THICKNESSES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS... STILL LOOK FOR HIGHS WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF 80.
FOR TONIGHT: THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE NE WELL OFF THE SE
COAST WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR SE TO MINIMIZE ANY IMPACT ON CENTRAL
NC. THE WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN HOLDS WITH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SPANNING THE AREA AND A VERY WEAK SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH
OVER PA/WV/VA... A REFLECTION OF THE CLIPPER MID LEVEL VORTEX NOW
OVER ERN MI THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MIDATLANTIC REGION REGION
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MODELS VARY IN THEIR IMPACTS ON
OUR WEATHER WITH THIS FEATURE... WITH THE NAM MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN
THE GFS IN TAKING A SLUG OF 850-700 MB MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE BUT IT IS SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM... SO WILL RETAIN A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA OVERNIGHT... AND LATER FORECASTS CAN INCREASE THIS COVERAGE IF
LATER GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE NAM. LOWS 57-60. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...
AS NOTED ABOVE... WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
MAINLY OVER THE EAST WED MORNING. THE PRESENCE OR LACK OF SUCH
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH FOG FORMS WED MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME LIGHT FOG TO START THE DAY... AND PERHAPS MORE DENSE IF
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER-ASSOCIATED CLOUDS DO NOT HAPPEN.
OTHERWISE... EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. THE CLIPPER LOW
WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND AS THE STRONG VORTICITY MAX ROUNDS ITS
BASE... SHIFTING OFF THE NJ COAST... AND WE SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE
FLAT DAYTIME CUMULUS FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE
LOW. MODELS SHOW WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
LATE... BETWEEN THE DEPARTING CLIPPER AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
COVERING THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS LATE WED/WED NIGHT.
WHILE MODELS SHOW A MINOR PERTURBATION TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WED NIGHT... THIS SHOULD BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE
WITH DEEP DRY AIR MOVING IN. EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH WED NIGHT.
THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO START WED ABOUT 10 M ABOVE NORMAL...
SUPPORTING HIGHS ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL... 80-84. SOME
CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST WHERE MODELS
INDICATE AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT GENERATED BY
LIGHT BUT CONFLUENT AND UPSLOPE-DIRECTED LOW LEVEL FLOW. LOWS WITHIN
A COUPLE DEGREES OF 60. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE...ALONG WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT...SET UP OVER THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE FAIRLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SUGGEST SOME AFTERNOON SHALLOW CU BENEATH
THE MID-LEVEL INVERSION. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AROUND 1395 SUGGESTS
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL... HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS AROUND
60.
THE NEXT WEATHER-MAKER FOR US WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT`S NOW
PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE LATE ON FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING AHEAD OF IT THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
RAPID MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY AS SW FLOW IN THE BL INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE END
RESULT NOWS LOOKS LIKE A BAND OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC PERHAPS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. AS FOR INTENSITY...MOST OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE OF SHOWER VARIETY...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
SOME SKINNY CAPE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...
BUT MORE NOTABLY 30-40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON INSTABILITY TRENDS WITH FUTURE MODELS RUNS. OF COURSE THE
TIMING OF THIS WILL BE FINE-TUNED AS WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER...SO IF
YOU HAVE OUTDOOR EVENTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING...YOU`LL
DEFINITELY WANT TO CHECK BACK LATER THIS WEEK FOR AN UPDATE.
NOW LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE WELL OFF THE COAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH A COOLING AND DRYING TREND IN ITS WAKE FOR THIS
WEEKEND. A LITTLE BREEZY ON SATURDAY IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AS
THE HIGH`S BUILDING IN...BUT OVERALL SHOULD SEE DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO - OR PERHAPS A
LITTLE BELOW- NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM TUESDAY...
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC
THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z THIS MORNING... WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TO FOLLOW
BY LATE MORNING... WHICH WILL HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD (06Z WED). THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING... TAKING WITH
IT THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS ANY THREAT OF ADDITIONAL PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN. THE CLEARING CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL FOSTER FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING. THESE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS HOWEVER WILL BE FLEETING... WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG NOT A
SOLID DECK BUT IN DISCONTINUOUS PATCHES... MAKING THE TAFS
CHALLENGING THIS MORNING. PILOTS SHOULD BE PARTICULARLY ALERT FOR
POSSIBLE VFR HOLES WITHIN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE... ANY CIGS SHOULD BREAK UP BY 15Z OR 16Z... WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE (MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST)
MOSTLY UNDER 5 KTS TODAY/TONIGHT.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY WED MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRI... ALTHOUGH SHALLOW IFR GROUND FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE 08Z-13Z EACH MORNING WED THROUGH FRI. A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS SAT. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
222 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 222 AM TUESDAY...
TODAY... FIRST CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING IS THE DEGREE OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA THUS FAR. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS NOW HEADING EAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST... WITH THE VEIL OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS DEPARTING ALONG WITH IT. THE DAMP GROUND COMBINED
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT PATCHY/FLEETING NATURE OF THESE CONDITIONS
(SEVERAL SITES HAVE BOUNCED AROUND BETWEEN 1/4 MI AND 5 MI IN FOG
THE LAST FEW HRS) GIVES US PAUSE AS TO THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. THE HRRR DEPICTS A FAIRLY SOLID DECK OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
FORMING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE OBSERVED TRENDS. IF VSBYS DO DROP AND HOLD THERE FOR OVER AN
HOUR... THEY`RE LIKELY TO HOLD FIRM THROUGH MID MORNING... GIVEN THE
WEAK WIND FIELD THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET RESULTING IN
MINIMAL STIRRING/DISPERSION HORIZONTALLY OR VERTICALLY. WILL KEEP
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MID MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. THEN... ONCE HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT MIXING HELPS TO DISPERSE
THE FOG/STRATUS... EXPECT A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY...
WITH FLAT AFTERNOON STRATOCU LIKELY TO STAY SCATTERED AT WORST. WITH
THICKNESSES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS... STILL LOOK FOR HIGHS WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF 80.
FOR TONIGHT: THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE NE WELL OFF THE SE
COAST WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR SE TO MINIMIZE ANY IMPACT ON CENTRAL
NC. THE WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN HOLDS WITH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SPANNING THE AREA AND A VERY WEAK SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH
OVER PA/WV/VA... A REFLECTION OF THE CLIPPER MID LEVEL VORTEX NOW
OVER ERN MI THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MIDATLANTIC REGION REGION
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MODELS VARY IN THEIR IMPACTS ON
OUR WEATHER WITH THIS FEATURE... WITH THE NAM MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN
THE GFS IN TAKING A SLUG OF 850-700 MB MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE BUT IT IS SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM... SO WILL RETAIN A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA OVERNIGHT... AND LATER FORECASTS CAN INCREASE THIS COVERAGE IF
LATER GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE NAM. LOWS 57-60. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM MONDAY...
TO BE UPDATED SHORTLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE...ALONG WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT...SET UP OVER THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE FAIRLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SUGGEST SOME AFTERNOON SHALLOW CU BENEATH
THE MID-LEVEL INVERSION. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AROUND 1395 SUGGESTS
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL... HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS AROUND
60.
THE NEXT WEATHER-MAKER FOR US WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT`S NOW
PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE LATE ON FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING AHEAD OF IT THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
RAPID MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY AS SW FLOW IN THE BL INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE END
RESULT NOWS LOOKS LIKE A BAND OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC PERHAPS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. AS FOR INTENSITY...MOST OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE OF SHOWER VARIETY...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
SOME SKINNY CAPE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...
BUT MORE NOTABLY 30-40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON INSTABILITY TRENDS WITH FUTURE MODELS RUNS. OF COURSE THE
TIMING OF THIS WILL BE FINE-TUNED AS WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER...SO IF
YOU HAVE OUTDOOR EVENTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING...YOU`LL
DEFINITELY WANT TO CHECK BACK LATER THIS WEEK FOR AN UPDATE.
NOW LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE WELL OFF THE COAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH A COOLING AND DRYING TREND IN ITS WAKE FOR THIS
WEEKEND. A LITTLE BREEZY ON SATURDAY IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AS
THE HIGH`S BUILDING IN...BUT OVERALL SHOULD SEE DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO - OR PERHAPS A
LITTLE BELOW- NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM TUESDAY...
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC
THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z THIS MORNING... WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TO FOLLOW
BY LATE MORNING... WHICH WILL HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD (06Z WED). THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING... TAKING WITH
IT THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS ANY THREAT OF ADDITIONAL PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN. THE CLEARING CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL FOSTER FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING. THESE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS HOWEVER WILL BE FLEETING... WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG NOT A
SOLID DECK BUT IN DISCONTINUOUS PATCHES... MAKING THE TAFS
CHALLENGING THIS MORNING. PILOTS SHOULD BE PARTICULARLY ALERT FOR
POSSIBLE VFR HOLES WITHIN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE... ANY CIGS SHOULD BREAK UP BY 15Z OR 16Z... WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE (MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST)
MOSTLY UNDER 5 KTS TODAY/TONIGHT.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY WED MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRI... ALTHOUGH SHALLOW IFR GROUND FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE 08Z-13Z EACH MORNING WED THROUGH FRI. A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS SAT. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
120 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST WILL MOVE FARTHER
OFFSHORE THROUGH TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM MONDAY...LATEST 88D TRENDS ILLUSTRATE THE MAIN RAIN
SHIELD HAS MOVED OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS. THIS LEAVES PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE THRU
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATM COLUMN AND AM HESITANT TO PLACE FOG IN
THE FCST. WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD STAY ACTIVE VIA
THE LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE FROM GA-SC COASTS. HAVE KEPT A STRATUS
CLOUD DECK THRUOUT THE OVERNIGHT...AND UP THRU SEVERAL HOURS AFTER
DAYBREAK TUE. THIS SHOULD ALSO HOLD THE FOG TO A MINIMUM. MIN
TEMP FCST STILL IN THE BALLPARK AND SEE NO REASON TO TWEAK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...........................................
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...THE PCPN
CONSISTING OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...IS COMING TO AN END FROM
WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. LATEST HRRR ALSO
ILLUSTRATES THE MAIN PCPN SHIELD SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY 1AM
TO 3AM TUESDAY...LEAVING PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
HAVE BEEN RE-CALCULATED AS A RESULT. BECAME MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH
ANY CLEARING DUE TO PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVBL FROM THE SFC THRU 600
MB AS SHOWN BY THE LATEST NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FA...WELL
AFTER THE TIME PCPN COMES TO AN END. VERY LITTLE TWEAKING TO
TONIGHTS MINS NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY...WITH A DRY PUNCH IN THE
MID LEVELS SCOURING OUT ALL THE MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB. A FLAT
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION AROUND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE (MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS) WILL KEEP NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE LOW
LEVELS WITH ONLY A GRADUAL DRYING/CLEARING TREND EXPECTED. ALONG
THE COAST THIS MEANS IT MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON FOR LOW
CLOUDS TO BREAK...BUT INLAND SKIES SHOULD TURN PARTLY CLOUDY
DURING THE MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE 12Z GFS LOOKS MOST REASONABLE WITH MASS
FIELDS IT MAY BE A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE CLEARING CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST AND I HAVE TRENDED MY FORECAST HIGHS A LITTLE BENEATH THE
12Z GFS MOS AS A RESULT...79-81 OVER SE NORTH CAROLINA AND 80-82
OVER NE SOUTH CAROLINA.
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A MODEST SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY LEAD TO A
FEW EVENING CLOUDS BUT SKIES SHOULD BECOME CLEAR BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY BE A TOUCH TOO STRONG FOR FOG ALTHOUGH
THE MOISTURE PROFILES OTHERWISE LOOK PRETTY GOOD FOR FOG. LOWS
SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 60 INLAND...WITH LOWER 60S COASTAL AREAS AND
SOME MID 60S ON THE BEACHES.
WITH EVEN LESS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE (PRECIP WATER VALUES 0.8
TO 0.9 INCHES) EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY SKIES SHOULD BE ESSENTIALLY
CLEAR. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHEASTERLY ALONG THE
COAST WITH A LIGHT SEABREEZE CIRCULATION. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
MID 80S ACROSS THE SC PEE DEE REGION...LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE EXCEPT
A LITTLE COOLER AT THE BEACHES WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN
THEIR SEASONAL DROP...NOW IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. VERY LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WOULD ARGUE FOR FOG...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE MAY NOT BE QUITE DEEP ENOUGH ACCORDING TO THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH MID-UPPER 60S AT
THE BEACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINNING FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY WITH DECENT FORCING AND WITH
GUIDANCE SHOWING AN EVEN DEEPER TROUGH...MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM
THE ATLANTIC IS STRONGER HENCE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS FOR THE EVENT.
WITH THE TROUGH GOING A LITTLE NEGATIVE TILT...THE FRONT MAY SLOW
BEFORE CLEARING OUT SATURDAY AND HAVE EXTENDED POPS A BIT TO
ADDRESS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE VERY NICE UNDER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S CWA WIDE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 05Z...THE -RA FROM EARLIER TONIGHT HAS MOSTLY PUSHED
OFFSHORE...AND THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN OVERNIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND OFF THE COAST. SURFACE OBS
INDICATE FOG IS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS WHERE THE
WINDS HAVE GONE CALM AND THE MID LEVEL CIGS ARE NO MORE.
THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED TEMPO IFR VSBYS FOR KLBT/KFLO EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND FOLLOWS SOME OF THE LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOWING
FOG/STRATUS EXPANDING INLAND AFTER 09Z. STILL THINK THE DEVELOPING
LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP WINDS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FOG...BUT SOME TEMPO IFR CIGS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BY DAYBREAK. WILL KEEP SCT 500 FT STRATUS AT THE COAST
ATTM. DURING THE DAY... DRIER AIR BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW
VFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KT DURING THE DAY...BECOMING
LIGHT/VRB AFTER 00Z WED.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM MONDAY...CURRENTLY A BROAD LOW EXTENDS OFF THE GA-FL
COASTS FROM NE GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A
DEVELOPING SFC LOW OFFSHORE AND EAST OF THE GA COAST BY DAYBREAK
TUE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT
ACROSS THE ILM WATERS THAT WILL YIELD NE 10-20 KT OVERNIGHT INTO
DAYLIGHT TUE. THE HIGHER END OF THIS SCALE TO OCCUR CLOSER TO THE
LOW...OVER THE ILM SC WATERS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FT
RANGE...EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST ILM SC WATERS.
FOUR TO 6 SECOND PERIOD...WIND DRIVEN WAVES TO DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..............................................
AS OF 745 PM MONDAY...COASTAL TROF OR FRONT TO REMAIN OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS JUST EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. WEAK
SFC LOW TO MOVE OFF THE GA-FL COAST EARLY THIS EVENING...AND MOVE
ENE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT STAYING OFFSHORE TO A POSITION
OF 140NM SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR BY DAYBREAK TUE. THE LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN-SOME AND HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE LOCAL WINDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE ILM SC WATERS. FOR NOW WILL FORECAST A SOLID 10-15 KT
BUT MAY INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 KT OR A 15-20 KT RANGE FOR THE ILM SC
WATERS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST OFF
CAPE FEAR AND OFF FROM THE MOUTH OF WINYAH BAY. FIVE FOOTERS ARE A
POSSIBILITY OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST WATERS...WILL MONITOR. LOOKING AT
4 TO 5 SECONDS FOR AVERAGE PERIODS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN TUESDAY MORNING OFF
THE GEORGIA COAST ALONG AN OLD FRONT. AS THIS LOW MOVES AWAY FROM
THE COASTLINE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS...REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS MEANS AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE OF NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE STRONGEST WINDS...NC AROUND 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 18-20 KNOTS...ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DIMINISHING
AROUND SUNSET TUESDAY EVENING. LIGHTER NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD
DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A
WEAK SEABREEZE SHOULD TURN WIND DIRECTIONS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY.
SEAS 3-4 FEET TUESDAY WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 2 FEET. AMONG THE
VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS THE 12Z GFS LOOKS THE BEST FOLLOWED BY THE
00Z ECMWF.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...VERY LIGHT WIND FIELDS THURSDAY WILL GIVE
WAY TO STRONGER WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE WEAKENING THURSDAY AND EAST WINDS WILL TURN TO SOUTHEAST
LATE. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PICK UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
10-15 KNOTS. THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE WATERS EARLY SATURDAY WITH
A NORTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS ENSUING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE
1-3 FEET THURSDAY AND MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY. SATURDAY THE RANGE
WILL INCREASE TO 2-4 FEET WITH THE HIGHER SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR/SRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1254 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
UPDATED POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND
15 UTC HRRR TRYING TO CONVEY THE ANTICIPATED BREAKS IN ACTIVITY
BETWEEN THE CURRENT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ND
AT THIS TIME...AND THE NEXT WAVE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL BY MID AFTERNOON. DID ADD A MENTION OF SEVERE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL 21-00 UTC ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG SHEAR AND
LOW LEVEL HELICITY. THE LATEST HRRR IS NOT A STRONG WITH LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY CONVECTION OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME. STRONG STACKED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIFT INTO NORTH
DAKOTA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VERY STRONG SHEAR/LOW
LEVEL HELICITY WILL EXIST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AROUND 20/21Z
AND LIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM THERE WILL
BE A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE FROM AROUND THE MISSOURI RIVER EAST INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...DUE TO THE
EXPECTED FAST STORM MOTION...AND WEAK TORNADOES DUE TO THE STRONG
SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY. WILL FRESHEN UP PRODUCTS INCLUDING
THE HWO WITH LATEST THINKING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
WELL DEFINED CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR RAPID CITY IS LIFTING
NORTH. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. CURRENT TRENDS HAVE THE RAIN
ARRIVING IN BISMARCK AROUND 9 AM CDT. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY
FOR THIS. ALSO FOG NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER THOUGHT. CONFINED
THE FOG MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
CURRENTLY...A LARGE SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WERE OVER
THE WESTERN NE/SD BORDER. THIS STACKED SYSTEM WAS NEAR THE BASE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ALASKA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSE
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WAS PROGGED TO MOVE
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL/WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY
DAYBREAK TODAY. THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.
AFTER DAYBREAK THE THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...FINALLY EXITING
INTO MANITOBA BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND WITH SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM - INCLUDING WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY - POINT TO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE...WHERE AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST. CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA CAN EXPECT A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 1/2 INCH TO 3/4 OF AN
INCH...WITH 1/3 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
THE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO MANITOBA.
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
AFTER THE SHORT TERM UPPER LOW KICKS OUT THERE IS A SECOND
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING
A SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION AND GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE IS AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. THE WEEKEND GENERALLY LOOKS DRY WITH A SLOW
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
BROAD RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN US EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. STILL DO NOT SEE A HARD FREEZE FOR THOSE AREAS
THAT HAVE NOT SEEN ONE...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL BY MID AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTH
NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE AS THE SURFACE LIFTS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DO
EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST BY MID TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
205 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS SOUTHEAST...BRUSHES AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE/LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES AT
THIS TIME. THESE ARE PART OF THE LARGER LINE OF SHRA TO THE NORTH
ACROSS WESTERN PA AND NW OHIO. WHILE THAT PORTION OF THE LINE IS
MOVING EAST QUICKER...THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LINE AFFECTING OUR
AREA IS SLOWER AS TO BE EXPECTED. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. MAY
BE MORE REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS SE OHIO LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
1030 AM UPDATE...
FIRST LINE OF CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY NEARING PERRY COUNTY AT THIS TIME. RAMPED
UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS NEAR OUR
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA BORDER FROM PERRY COUNTY OVER TOWARDS
MORGAN AND WASH COUNTIES IN OHIO FOR THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS AS IT
QUICKLY MOVES EAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PATCHES OF CLOUDS STILL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT 07Z...OTHERWISE
VALLEY FOG PREVAILS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS MID/UPPER TROF
OVER LAKE HURON AND MICHIGAN DROPPING SOUTHEAST. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT/WIND SHIFT WAS APPROACHING TOL AND STILL NORTH OF IND.
AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THE MAIN COOLING ALOFT TODAY WILL BE NORTH
OF OUR CWA. FOR EXAMPLE...00Z NAM HAS 500 MB TEMP AT PBZ COOLING
ABOUT 5C TODAY...WHILE CKB ONLY ABOUT A DEG C. SO TIMING THE
POPS...AND HOW FAR SOUTH TO MENTION PCPN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IS ONE CHALLENGE. AFTER DIGESTING THE MODELS...SEE NO
REASON TO CHANGE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS
HTS-CRW VCNTY FOR THIS EVENING. THIS IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN
MOST 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS. FURTHER NNE...HAVE POPS MAXING OUT AROUND
40 TO 50 PCT FOR N CNTRL WV FROM 21Z TODAY TO 01Z WEDNESDAY.
DRY AIR SOUTH OF THAT DISTURBANCE FOR TODAY. RAP SOLUTION TRIES TO
EVEN LOWER DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S. MAYBE ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN LIKE
BKW...BUT DID NOT GO THAT LOW IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS.
MAIN PUSH BEHIND FRONT IS INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO...BEFORE 925 MB WINDS
QUICKLY VEER TO EAST OR DIMINISH TO CALM. THINKING LOW STRATUS WILL
FORM TONIGHT IN SE OHIO BEHIND FRONT. FURTHER SOUTH IN THE COAL
FIELDS OF WV...WAS THINKING JUST THE USUAL DIURNAL LATE NIGHT FOG.
FURTHER NORTH...LINGERING CLOUDS MAY HINDER OR DELAY THE FOG
FORMATION AROUND CKB AND EKN. HTS-CRW CORRIDOR IS A TOUGH CALL
BETWEEN ALL 3 FOR LATE TONIGHT...PATCHES OF CLOUDS LINGERING
OVERNIGHT...STRATUS FORMATION...OR SURFACE BASED FOG FORMING.
OVERALL KEPT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GFS MOS
GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE HEADING EAST OUT TO SEA TO START THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...ANTICIPATE LOTS OF LOW
STRATUS WEDNESDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY BREAKING UP THROUGH THE DAY.
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE DO NOT EXPECT THESE
CLOUDS. WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUDS...ALSO LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
SEVERAL DEGREES IN SE OHIO. BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED MET INTO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HAVE A LITTLE TRAILING VORT MAX COMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PASSES THURSDAY WITH A
WARMER...SUNNY DAY. AGAIN BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS...BLENDED IN BIAS
CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
L/W TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA THIS PERIOD. RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY FRI AS LEAD SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH CROSSES JUST OUT AHEAD OF
SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH IS DRIVEN BY MID STREAM S/W PIVOTING THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRI...DRIVING THE SFC COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STRONG FLOW...FORCING...LAST MINUTE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND LATE DAY TIMING SHOULD SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER...ALTHOUGH
A MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE LEAD SRN STREAM S/W...WHICH BRINGS CLOUDS
AND RAIN ACROSS EARLIER IN THE DAY.
A HIGH OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
INITIALLY...BRINGING ABOUT A FAIR...COOL WEEKEND. A REINFORCING
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND SFC FRONT CROSS MON...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...AND THEN EVEN COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BLENDED IN GFS BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRI AND THEN MAINLY WPC FOR
LOWS AND HIGHS BEYOND THAT...MOST CHANGES TO LOWER VALUES BUT NOT BY
MUCH.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BEING EXPERIENCED THIS AFTERNOON. A LINE
OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY PUSHING SLOWLY ACROSS SE OHIO INTO THE
PANHANDLE OF WV SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF US HWY 50. BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VIS IS POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH A HEAVIER SHOWER BUT AGAIN...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PREVALENT OTHERWISE.
EXPECT LOWER MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO
00Z TO 06Z WEDNESDAY...BEHIND THE FRONT CURRENTLY JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST. A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS MAINLY FOR THE
CENTRAL WV LOWLANDS WITH EXACTLY HOW FAR EAST AND SOUTH IT
PROGRESSES...WITH LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG POSSIBLE IN THIS GENERAL
AREA. THINKING MORE DIURNAL FOG WILL FORM ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS BTWN
15Z-18Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY BE MORE THAN FORECAST
IN THE PKB-CKB-EKN VCNTY. ARRIVAL OF LOWER STRATUS CEILING INTO
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND PKB MAY BE FASTER THAN
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/50
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1050 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS SOUTHEAST...BRUSHES AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE/LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
FIRST LINE OF CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY NEARING PERRY COUNTY AT THIS TIME. RAMPED
UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS NEAR OUR
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA BORDER FROM PERRY COUNTY OVER TOWARDS
MORGAN AND WASH COUNTIES IN OHIO FOR THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS AS IT
QUICKLY MOVES EAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PATCHES OF CLOUDS STILL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT 07Z...OTHERWISE
VALLEY FOG PREVAILS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS MID/UPPER TROF
OVER LAKE HURON AND MICHIGAN DROPPING SOUTHEAST. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT/WIND SHIFT WAS APPROACHING TOL AND STILL NORTH OF IND.
AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THE MAIN COOLING ALOFT TODAY WILL BE NORTH
OF OUR CWA. FOR EXAMPLE...00Z NAM HAS 500 MB TEMP AT PBZ COOLING
ABOUT 5C TODAY...WHILE CKB ONLY ABOUT A DEG C. SO TIMING THE
POPS...AND HOW FAR SOUTH TO MENTION PCPN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IS ONE CHALLENGE. AFTER DIGESTING THE MODELS...SEE NO
REASON TO CHANGE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS
HTS-CRW VCNTY FOR THIS EVENING. THIS IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN
MOST 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS. FURTHER NNE...HAVE POPS MAXING OUT AROUND
40 TO 50 PCT FOR N CNTRL WV FROM 21Z TODAY TO 01Z WEDNESDAY.
DRY AIR SOUTH OF THAT DISTURBANCE FOR TODAY. RAP SOLUTION TRIES TO
EVEN LOWER DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S. MAYBE ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN LIKE
BKW...BUT DID NOT GO THAT LOW IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS.
MAIN PUSH BEHIND FRONT IS INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO...BEFORE 925 MB WINDS
QUICKLY VEER TO EAST OR DIMINISH TO CALM. THINKING LOW STRATUS WILL
FORM TONIGHT IN SE OHIO BEHIND FRONT. FURTHER SOUTH IN THE COAL
FIELDS OF WV...WAS THINKING JUST THE USUAL DIURNAL LATE NIGHT FOG.
FURTHER NORTH...LINGERING CLOUDS MAY HINDER OR DELAY THE FOG
FORMATION AROUND CKB AND EKN. HTS-CRW CORRIDOR IS A TOUGH CALL
BETWEEN ALL 3 FOR LATE TONIGHT...PATCHES OF CLOUDS LINGERING
OVERNIGHT...STRATUS FORMATION...OR SURFACE BASED FOG FORMING.
OVERALL KEPT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GFS MOS
GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE HEADING EAST OUT TO SEA TO START THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...ANTICIPATE LOTS OF LOW
STRATUS WEDNESDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY BREAKING UP THROUGH THE DAY.
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE DO NOT EXPECT THESE
CLOUDS. WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUDS...ALSO LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
SEVERAL DEGREES IN SE OHIO. BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED MET INTO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HAVE A LITTLE TRAILING VORT MAX COMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PASSES THURSDAY WITH A
WARMER...SUNNY DAY. AGAIN BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS...BLENDED IN BIAS
CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
L/W TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA THIS PERIOD. RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY FRI AS LEAD SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH CROSSES JUST OUT AHEAD OF
SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH IS DRIVEN BY MID STREAM S/W PIVOTING THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRI...DRIVING THE SFC COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STRONG FLOW...FORCING...LAST MINUTE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND LATE DAY TIMING SHOULD SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER...ALTHOUGH
A MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE LEAD SRN STREAM S/W...WHICH BRINGS CLOUDS
AND RAIN ACROSS EARLIER IN THE DAY.
A HIGH OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
INITIALLY...BRINGING ABOUT A FAIR...COOL WEEKEND. A REINFORCING
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND SFC FRONT CROSS MON...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...AND THEN EVEN COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BLENDED IN GFS BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRI AND THEN MAINLY WPC FOR
LOWS AND HIGHS BEYOND THAT...MOST CHANGES TO LOWER VALUES BUT NOT BY
MUCH.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECTING THE RIVER VALLEY FOG TO BE THE SLOWEST TO EVAPORATE E
AND S OF CRW IN THE SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA COAL FIELDS...BUT
SHOULD BE GONE BY 14Z.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT FORMING 14Z TO 17Z OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...PLUS THE CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS. HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS REACHING INTO UNI-PKB-CKB-KEN
CORRIDOR 18Z TO 21Z...THEN LINGERING IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL WV 00Z TO
06Z. COULD NOT RULE OUT A MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM. AN ISOLATED CELL
COULD REACH HTS-CRW CORRIDOR 22Z TUESDAY TO 03Z WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS TO BE MOVING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO 00Z TO
06Z WEDNESDAY...WITH 1 THSD FT BKN TO OVC POSSIBLE AND VSBY NEAR
5 MILES IN HAZE. HOW FAR EAST AND SOUTH THAT ADVECTS IS DIFFICULT
TO FIGURE...WITH 925 MB FLOW QUICKLY TURNING TO EAST BEFORE 06Z
WEDNESDAY. CRW A TOUGH CALL BETWEEN STRATUS AND SURFACE BASED FOG
FORMING 06Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY. THINKING MORE DIURNAL FOG WILL FORM
ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY BE MORE THAN FORECAST
IN THE PKB-CKB-EKN VCNTY. ARRIVAL OF LOWER STRATUS CEILING INTO
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND PKB MAY BE FASTER THAN
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/50
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
618 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS SOUTHEAST...BRUSHES AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE/LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHES OF CLOUDS STILL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT 07Z...OTHERWISE VALLEY
FOG PREVAILS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS MID/UPPER TROF OVER LAKE
HURON AND MICHIGAN DROPPING SOUTHEAST. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT/WIND
SHIFT WAS APPROACHING TOL AND STILL NORTH OF IND.
AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THE MAIN COOLING ALOFT TODAY WILL BE NORTH
OF OUR CWA. FOR EXAMPLE...00Z NAM HAS 500 MB TEMP AT PBZ COOLING
ABOUT 5C TODAY...WHILE CKB ONLY ABOUT A DEG C. SO TIMING THE
POPS...AND HOW FAR SOUTH TO MENTION PCPN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IS ONE CHALLENGE. AFTER DIGESTING THE MODELS...SEE NO
REASON TO CHANGE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS
HTS-CRW VCNTY FOR THIS EVENING. THIS IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN
MOST 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS. FURTHER NNE...HAVE POPS MAXING OUT AROUND
40 TO 50 PCT FOR N CNTRL WV FROM 21Z TODAY TO 01Z WEDNESDAY.
DRY AIR SOUTH OF THAT DISTURBANCE FOR TODAY. RAP SOLUTION TRIES TO
EVEN LOWER DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S. MAYBE ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN LIKE
BKW...BUT DID NOT GO THAT LOW IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS.
MAIN PUSH BEHIND FRONT IS INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO...BEFORE 925 MB WINDS
QUICKLY VEER TO EAST OR DIMINISH TO CALM. THINKING LOW STRATUS WILL
FORM TONIGHT IN SE OHIO BEHIND FRONT. FURTHER SOUTH IN THE COAL
FIELDS OF WV...WAS THINKING JUST THE USUAL DIURNAL LATE NIGHT FOG.
FURTHER NORTH...LINGERING CLOUDS MAY HINDER OR DELAY THE FOG
FORMATION AROUND CKB AND EKN. HTS-CRW CORRIDOR IS A TOUGH CALL
BETWEEN ALL 3 FOR LATE TONIGHT...PATCHES OF CLOUDS LINGERING
OVERNIGHT...STRATUS FORMATION...OR SURFACE BASED FOG FORMING.
OVERALL KEPT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GFS MOS
GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE HEADING EAST OUT TO SEA TO START THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...ANTICIPATE LOTS OF LOW
STRATUS WEDNESDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY BREAKING UP THROUGH THE DAY.
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE DO NOT EXPECT THESE
CLOUDS. WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUDS...ALSO LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
SEVERAL DEGREES IN SE OHIO. BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED MET INTO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HAVE A LITTLE TRAILING VORT MAX COMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PASSES THURSDAY WITH A
WARMER...SUNNY DAY. AGAIN BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS...BLENDED IN BIAS
CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
L/W TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA THIS PERIOD. RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY FRI AS LEAD SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH CROSSES JUST OUT AHEAD OF
SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH IS DRIVEN BY MID STREAM S/W PIVOTING THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRI...DRIVING THE SFC COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STRONG FLOW...FORCING...LAST MINUTE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND LATE DAY TIMING SHOULD SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER...ALTHOUGH
A MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE LEAD SRN STREAM S/W...WHICH BRINGS CLOUDS
AND RAIN ACROSS EARLIER IN THE DAY.
A HIGH OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
INITIALLY...BRINGING ABOUT A FAIR...COOL WEEKEND. A REINFORCING
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND SFC FRONT CROSS MON...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...AND THEN EVEN COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BLENDED IN GFS BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRI AND THEN MAINLY WPC FOR
LOWS AND HIGHS BEYOND THAT...MOST CHANGES TO LOWER VALUES BUT NOT BY
MUCH.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECTING THE RIVER VALLEY FOG TO BE THE SLOWEST TO EVAPORATE E AND
S OF CRW IN THE SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA COAL FIELDS...BUT SHOULD BE
GONE BY 14Z.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT FORMING 14Z TO 17Z OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...PLUS THE CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS. HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS REACHING INTO UNI-PKB-CKB-KEN
CORRIDOR 18Z TO 21Z...THEN LINGERING IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL WV 00Z TO
06Z. COULD NOT RULE OUT A MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM. AN ISOLATED CELL
COULD REACH HTS-CRW CORRIDOR 22Z TUESDAY TO 03Z WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS TO BE MOVING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO 00Z TO
06Z WEDNESDAY...WITH 1 THSD FT BKN TO OVC POSSIBLE AND VSBY NEAR
5 MILES IN HAZE. HOW FAR EAST AND SOUTH THAT ADVECTS IS DIFFICULT
TO FIGURE...WITH 925 MB FLOW QUICKLY TURNING TO EAST BEFORE 06Z
WEDNESDAY. CRW A TOUGH CALL BETWEEN STRATUS AND SURFACE BASED FOG
FORMING 06Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY. THINKING MORE DIURNAL FOG WILL FORM
ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY BE MORE THAN FORECAST
IN THE PKB-CKB-EKN VCNTY. ARRIVAL OF LOWER STRATUS CEILING INTO
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND PKB MAY BE FASTER THAN
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 09/30/14
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
348 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS SOUTHEAST...BRUSHES AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE/LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHES OF CLOUDS STILL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT 07Z...OTHERWISE VALLEY
FOG PREVAILS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS MID/UPPER TROF OVER LAKE
HURON AND MICHIGAN DROPPING SOUTHEAST. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT/WIND
SHIFT WAS APPROACHING TOL AND STILL NORTH OF IND.
AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THE MAIN COOLING ALOFT TODAY WILL BE NORTH
OF OUR CWA. FOR EXAMPLE...00Z NAM HAS 500 MB TEMP AT PBZ COOLING
ABOUT 5C TODAY...WHILE CKB ONLY ABOUT A DEG C. SO TIMING THE
POPS...AND HOW FAR SOUTH TO MENTION PCPN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IS ONE CHALLENGE. AFTER DIGESTING THE MODELS...SEE NO
REASON TO CHANGE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS
HTS-CRW VCNTY FOR THIS EVENING. THIS IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN
MOST 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS. FURTHER NNE...HAVE POPS MAXING OUT AROUND
40 PCT FOR N CNTRL WV FROM 22Z TODAY TO 01Z WEDNESDAY.
DRY AIR SOUTH OF THAT DISTURBANCE FOR TODAY. RAP SOLUTION TRIES TO
EVEN LOWER DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S. MAYBE ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN LIKE
BKW...BUT DID NOT GO THAT LOW IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS.
MAIN PUSH BEHIND FRONT IS INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO...BEFORE 925 MB WINDS
QUICKLY VEER TO EAST OR DIMINISH TO CALM. THINKING LOW STRATUS WILL
FORM TONIGHT IN SE OHIO BEHIND FRONT. FURTHER SOUTH IN THE COAL
FIELDS OF WV...WAS THINKING JUST THE USUAL DIURNAL LATE NIGHT FOG.
FURTHER NORTH...LINGERING CLOUDS MAY HINDER OR DELAY THE FOG
FORMATION AROUND CKB AND EKN. HTS-CRW CORRIDOR IS A TOUGH CALL
BETWEEN ALL 3 FOR LATE TONIGHT...PATCHES OF CLOUDS LINGERING
OVERNIGHT...STRATUS FORMATION...OR SURFACE BASED FOG FORMING.
OVERALL KEPT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GFS MOS
GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE HEADING EAST OUT TO SEA TO START THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...ANTICIPATE LOTS OF LOW
STRATUS WEDNESDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY BREAKING UP THROUGH THE DAY.
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE DO NOT EXPECT THESE
CLOUDS. WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUDS...ALSO LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
SEVERAL DEGREES IN SE OHIO. BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED MET INTO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HAVE A LITTLE TRAILING VORT MAX COMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PASSES THURSDAY WITH A
WARMER...SUNNY DAY. AGAIN BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS...BLENDED IN BIAS
CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
L/W TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA THIS PERIOD. RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY FRI AS LEAD SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH CROSSES JUST OUT AHEAD OF
SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH IS DRIVEN BY MID STREAM S/W PIVOTING THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRI...DRIVING THE SFC COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STRONG FLOW...FORCING...LAST MINUTE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND LATE DAY TIMING SHOULD SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER...ALTHOUGH
A MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE LEAD SRN STREAM S/W...WHICH BRINGS CLOUDS
AND RAIN ACROSS EARLIER IN THE DAY.
A HIGH OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
INITIALLY...BRINGING ABOUT A FAIR...COOL WEEKEND. A REINFORCING
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND SFC FRONT CROSS MON...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...AND THEN EVEN COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BLENDED IN GFS BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRI AND THEN MAINLY WPC FOR
LOWS AND HIGHS BEYOND THAT...MOST CHANGES TO LOWER VALUES BUT NOT BY
MUCH.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIVER VALLEY FOG SHOULD BE COMMON THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA INTO
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z. DRIER AIR IN SOUTHEAST OHIO...BUT THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY STILL CAUSE SOME FOG THERE...BUT OF SHORTER
DURATION.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT FORMING 14Z TO 17Z OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...PLUS THE CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS. HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS REACHING INTO UNI-PKB-CKB-KEN
CORRIDOR 18Z TO 21Z...THEN LINGERING IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL WV 00Z TO
06Z. COULD NOT RULE OUT A MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM. AN ISOLATED CELL
COULD REACH HTS-CRW CORRIDOR 22Z TUESDAY TO 03Z WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS TO BE MOVING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO 00Z TO
06Z WEDNESDAY...WITH 1 THSD FT BKN TO OVC POSSIBLE AND VSBY NEAR
5 MILES IN HAZE. HOW FAR EAST AND SOUTH THAT ADVECTS IS DIFFICULT
TO FIGURE...WITH 925 MB FLOW QUICKLY TURNING TO EAST BEFORE 06Z
WEDNESDAY. THINKING MORE DIURNAL FOG WILL FORM ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER/VALLEY FOG TIMING AND DENSITY MAY VARY
OVERNIGHT. ARRIVAL OF LOWER STRATUS CEILING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND PKB MAY BE FASTER THAN FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 09/30/14
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
153 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE ACROSS BUFFALO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO LAKE ERIE TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. A LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE LAKES PULLING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO UP THE OHIO VALLEY LATER SATURDAY THEN
ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LAKES MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A BAND OF POST FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. THE HRRR IS SHOWING THIS BAND TRYING TO
FALL APART AS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH BEFORE FILLING IN AGAIN TOWARDS MORNING AS THE TROUGH
AXIS PIVOTS AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. STILL THINKING CHANCES ARE PRETTY
GOOD FOR SEEING SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT FOR THE TOLEDO AREA AND
ACROSS NRN AND NE OHIO ON TUESDAY. DURATION COULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF
IN NW OHIO...LASTING FOR A MAYBE A FEW HOURS IN THE EAST BEFORE
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ARRIVES. TWEAKED MINS IN A FEW AREAS
OVERNIGHT...RAISING TEMPERATURES FROM FINDLAY TO SANDUSKY BY A
COUPLE DEGREES WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...BUT
LIKELY AHEAD OF THE RAIN. TWEAKED A FEW OF THE COOLER SPOTS DOWN
IN THE EAST (BJJ/YNG) WHERE TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 50S. ALSO
LOWERED HIGHS ON TUESDAY BY SEVERAL DEGREES IN NW OHIO AS
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER BEHIND THE FRONT UNLESS WE
CAN GET ANY DECENT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. MODEL SOUNDING SUGGEST
THAT WILL BE HARD TO DO WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION
NEAR 900MB.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SE
ACROSS LAKE ERIE TUE MORNING. THE STRONG VORT MAX WITH THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE THE FORCING TO GENERATE A BAND OF SHRA AND
A FEW POSSIBLE TSRA THAT SHOULD MOVE ESE TO NEAR CLE BY 12Z TUE
THEN WORK ACROSS THE EAST INTO TUE AFTERNOON. COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR TUE AFTERNOON THAT
WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHRA GOING IN THE EAST UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. QPF WITH THIS EVENT LOOKS TO RANGE FROM A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN THE SW TO A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN
INCH IN THE NE.
TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS
THEN TEMPS ON TUE WILL BE COOLER ALSO DUE TO THE CLOUDS ALONG WITH
THE SHRA AND COOLER AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER THE SHRA THREAT TUE EVE...CLOUDS SHOULD BE DECREASING SOME
THUS HELPING FOR A COLDER NIGHT WITH LOWS 47 TO 52 FOR MOST OF THE
AREA.
AN ISOLATED SHRA COULD STILL OCCUR IN NW PA WED DUE TO UPPER
TROUGHING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED SOUTH INTO THE AREA
SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL THU NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST LATER WED THRU THU SO TEMPS WILL MODERATE A
LITTLE WARMER ON WED AND MORE SO ON THU. STRONGER STORMS LOOK
POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT ON FRI BUT SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE AREA
THU NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THIS PERIOD TO
COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS.
A FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH A DRY SLOT FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THE MODEL DIFFER ON
THE QPF AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THE ECMWF HAS A CLOSED LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL HAVE A
DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER NE OH
AND NW PA...MORE LAKE INDUCED WITH THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE NEAR 18C. THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTION SEEM BETTER. NONE
THE LESS IT WILL BE COOL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IF NOT A LITTLE MORE.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AS THE ECMWF TRIES TO KEEP THINGS COOL. STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY SLOW THIS MORNING AS A WEAK WAVE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON THE
FRONT. THERE IS CURRENTLY A FAIR AMOUNT OF IFR CEILINGS FOLLOWING
THE FRONT...BUT AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS THE LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON TO REACH
KCAK AND KYNG. CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NW OHIO BUT STRATUS AND IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
LINGER OR REDEVELOP ACROSS NE OH/NW PA TUESDAY EVENING.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SOMEWHAT LIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL LAST THROUGH MID WEEK
BEFORE CONDITIONS CHANGE DRAMATICALLY.
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AS THE
COLD ADVECTION IS VERY WEAK ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SOME
SHOWERS...DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE LAST GOOD DAYS ON THE LAKE
FOR AWHILE.
A THREAT OF MUCH STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON
FRIDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. THE MAIN THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WIND SPEEDS COULD EVEN GET STRONG ENOUGH AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SOME QUESTION HOW
STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GFS MODEL
HAS WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE
MORE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. AT THIS TIME LEANING TOWARD THE
LIGHTER WINDS...AS THE GFS SEEMS TO OVERDO THE WINDS AT TIMES. THE
THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.
SOME QUESTION HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS TRIES TO BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE
LAKE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A TROF AND THAT WOULD
MEAN THE THREAT FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WOULD CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. NONE THE LESS WHICH EVER MODEL IS CORRECT THE LAKE WILL
BE CHOPPY ESPECIALLY EAST OF CLEVELAND LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KEC
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
231 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A LONE SHOWER COULD AFFECT A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE
IN YORK AND ADAMS CO BTWN 04Z-07Z. SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH LVL
CLOUDS OVER EASTERN PA SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY ARND
06Z...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC WAA ALOFT SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE.
CENTRAL PA WILL BE IN BTWN SHORTWAVES TONIGHT...ONE DEPARTING THE
E COAST AND NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS. LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE
BTWN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY FCST OVERNIGHT. MCLEAR SKIES
AND A CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG.
LATEST SREF AND RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST...UNLIKE MANY RECENT NIGHTS...SOME
OF THE FOG COULD AFFECT EVEN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. DWPTS IN THE
50S SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT FOR LATE SEPT...WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE L/M 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW OVR THE GRT LKS WILL DIVE SE ACROSS
PA ON TUESDAY. DECREASING STABILITY UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL HELP SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT
CAPE WILL BE MODEST...BUT FORECAST TOTAL-TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 50
ARE USUALLY A GOOD INDICATOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION.
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF
0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS...BUT AMOUNTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER...0.15
TO 0.25 OF AN INCH...ACROSS THE FAR NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A FEW DEG COOLER AND IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN
ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND.
CLOUDIER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAN RECENT DAYS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROF WED...HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT
MOISTURE-LIMITED AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS ON
WED HOWEVER WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. WARMER WEATHER MAKES
A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO NORMALS.
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN
EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
CLR SKIES/LGT WINDS AGAIN SUPPORTING VALLEY FOG FORMATION ACRS
CENTRAL PA. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN IFR OR BLW AT BFD/IPT/LNS
(PERSISTENCE) FOLLOWED BY AOO/UNV. MDT HAS YET TO REALLY GET INTO
THE FOG OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL CAP VSBY AT 3-5SM.
DEWPT DEPRESSION AT JST SUGGEST FOG IS UNLIKELY ALTHOUGH DID SHOW
SCT015 GROUP TWD DAYBREAK. FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR FOR THE
MORNING HOURS...AHEAD OF COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW AND WEAK COLD
FRONT FCST TO SHIFT SEWD FROM THE GRT LKS ACRS PA LATER TODAY
INTO TNGT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF VCSH/-SHRA MENTION AT
ALL SITES FROM THIS AFTN INTO EARLY TNGT ALONG WITH A GENERAL
LOWERING TREND IN CIGS/VSBYS. ARRIVAL OF COOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH UPPER LOW FAVORABLY TIMED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT
ISOLD-SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT...FOCUSING ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD
FRONT. THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL FAVOR HAIL AS THE PRIMARY TSTM
HAZARD.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WED...UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE NEWD THEREFORE CHC OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ON WED. SOME LOW CIGS PSBL AS WELL.
THU...LOW CIGS LKLY EARLY...AND COULD PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY OR REFORM THU NGT DUE TO HIGH PRES WEDGE/MARITIME FLOW E OF
THE APPLCHNS.
FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LKLY ASSOCD WITH WELL-DEFINED
GUSTY COLD FROPA. LLWS LKLY DUE TO STG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.
SAT...AM SHOWERS ERN AREAS. BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS E OF
THE MTNS DUE TO WLY DOWNSLOPE. ISOLD SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE OVER N/WRN AREAS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1225 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A LONE SHOWER COULD AFFECT A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE
IN YORK AND ADAMS CO BTWN 04Z-07Z. SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH LVL
CLOUDS OVER EASTERN PA SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY ARND
06Z...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC WAA ALOFT SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE.
CENTRAL PA WILL BE IN BTWN SHORTWAVES TONIGHT...ONE DEPARTING THE
E COAST AND NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS. LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE
BTWN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY FCST OVERNIGHT. MCLEAR SKIES
AND A CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG.
LATEST SREF AND RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST...UNLIKE MANY RECENT NIGHTS...SOME
OF THE FOG COULD AFFECT EVEN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. DWPTS IN THE
50S SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT FOR LATE SEPT...WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE L/M 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW OVR THE GRT LKS WILL DIVE SE ACROSS
PA ON TUESDAY. DECREASING STABILITY UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL HELP SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT
CAPE WILL BE MODEST...BUT FORECAST TOTAL-TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 50
ARE USUALLY A GOOD INDICATOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION.
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF
0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS...BUT AMOUNTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER...0.15
TO 0.25 OF AN INCH...ACROSS THE FAR NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A FEW DEG COOLER AND IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN
ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND.
CLOUDIER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAN RECENT DAYS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROF WED...HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT
MOISTURE-LIMITED AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS ON
WED HOWEVER WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. WARMER WEATHER MAKES
A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO NORMALS.
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN
EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG ALREADY FORMING...ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 03Z TAFS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN OVERNIGHT. DID HIT THE FOG
A LITTLE HARDER THAN IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...ESPECIALLY WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS THIS EVENING THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
THERE WAS LITTLE FOG LAST NIGHT...AS MID AND HI CLDS
MOVED IN OVERNIGHT.
PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST ON TUE.
WED...AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE GR LAKES INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BRING SCT RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CIGS PROBABLE AT NIGHT.
OUTLOOK /THU THROUGH SAT/...
THU...LOW CIGS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST PROVIDES AN EAST-SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW.
FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PSBL ASSOC WITH GUSTY FROPA.
SAT...BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE OVER NWRN AREAS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
402 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...
/Tonight and Wednesday/
Isolated showers have been affecting the Big County this afternoon,
embedded within the mid-level moist axis streaming across the Lone
Star State from southwest to northeast. The RAP Mesoanalysis
indicates a narrow axis of MLCAPE values approaching 1500 J/kg
across the western counties this afternoon, but even the cu
development as been rather limited, suggesting a pretty strong cap.
We are seeing a bit more vertical development in the cu field over
the Trans-Pecos area, however, and any convection that develops may
drift into the southwest zones. Thus, the slight chance PoPs were
retained this evening, mainly west of a line from Ozona, to Robert
Lee, to Miller Creek Reservoir. Winds will be a few mph stronger
than what was observed last night and, combined with the increasing
low-level moisture, should support min temps in the mid to upper 60s.
On Wednesday, the thermal ridge axis will shift east, resulting in
850mb temps of 24-25C across the Big Country and Concho Valley by
peak heating. With low-level adiabatic lapse rates during the
afternoon hours, we should have little problem warming into the
lower 90s across much of the area. These warm temperatures may
strain the cap to its breaking point by late afternoon, so the
mention of showers and thunderstorms was retained after 20z (3 PM).
Coverage is expected to remain very limited, but any storms that
develop could be strong.
.LONG TERM...
/Wednesday night through Monday/
Afternoon water vapor imagery shows a strengthening trough
progressing southeast across the Inter-mountain West, upper-level
moisture streaming northeast across west central Texas from Tropical
Depression Rachel, and a shortwave trough lifting northeast across
the Dakotas. A dryline observed in surface observations extends
south through the Texas Panhandle, with a few showers developing
ahead of this feature. Ahead of this dryline, southeasterly surface
winds continue to advect moisture into the region from the Gulf of
Mexico.
The trend in the model solutions the past few days has been to delay
the arrival of a cold front. This trend has continued today with the
GFS and ECMWF trending towards the NAM model. Convective
temperatures are expected to be reached tomorrow evening. With
sufficient moisture/good instability in place, shower and
thunderstorm development will be possible, mainly north and west of
a line from San Angelo to Baird. Forecast soundings show SBCAPEs in
excess of 2000 J/kg, around 20-25 Kts of 0-6km shear, and T/TD
spreads around 30 degrees F. With this type of environment, a few
strong thunderstorms will be possible.
With the arrival of the upper trough Thursday, a cold front will
cross the area during the day. For Thursday, moisture, instability,
and shear will increase ahead of the cold front, with forecast
soundings indicating convective temperatures being reached, and a
higher potential for strong thunderstorms/possibly a few severe/ if
frontal timing in the models are correct. Friday will feature cooler
temperatures, with highs near 80 degrees. Another disturbance will
cross the Central Plains this weekend sending a weak cold front
south. This front will stall across the area on Sunday, with
increasing surface moisture likely south of the front. However,
moisture return looks insufficient for shower development at this
time. Overall confidence is moderate in rain chances
Wednesday/Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 69 92 72 92 56 / 10 10 20 20 5
San Angelo 69 93 73 89 57 / 10 5 10 20 10
Junction 66 91 73 90 60 / 5 5 5 20 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
Johnson/60
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1241 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS BEGINNING TO FORM INLAND OF MATAGORDA BAY AND WILL EXPAND
EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CARRIED A VCTS FOR LBX AND
THE METRO AREA TAF SITES. COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LOW BUT BOTH THE
TXTECH WRF AND 12Z HRRR RUNS FOCUS ACTIVITY NEAR THE METRO AREA
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD END QUICKLY
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
REGION. AGAIN THE NAM SEEMS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WHILE THE GFS IS
LIKELY UNDERESTIMATING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL CARRY TEMPO FOR
NOW AND ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO REEVALUATE THIS EVENING. 38
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 72 92 76 92 68 / 10 10 10 30 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 73 90 77 91 72 / 10 20 10 30 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 78 84 79 87 77 / 10 20 10 20 60
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...38
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1232 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
MAINTAINED VCSH FOR KHRL...STILL THINK THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE
SHOWERS WILL STAY NORTH OF KBRO AND KMFE. EXPECT MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LATEST SATELLITE AND
WATER VAPOR OBSERVATIONS SHOW RIDGE MIGRATING EASTWARD AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH THE HIGH PRESSURE EAST AND DEEPENS
THE LEE SIDE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS EXTENDING INTO THE CWA
GRADUALLY INCREASING WINDS BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
SOUTHERN HIDALGO COUNTY AND UNDERNEATH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DEPICTED OVER THE AREA WITH 00Z KBRO SOUNDING SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE
CONCENTRATED UP TO 800 MB. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ONLY REACH 1.72
INCHES AND THAT IS DUE TO THE DRY MID LEVEL AIR MOVING IN WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS OF 8Z...RADAR SHOWS SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT FAVORING NORTHERN KENEDY COUNTY AND EASTERN HIDALGO AND
CAMERON AND IT IS MAINLY RAP RAP AROUND THE WEAK LOW/MCV. THE CONVECTION
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND MOVE INTO
BROOKS COUNTY BY MID DAY AS THE WEAK LOW MOVES FURTHER INLAND BEFORE
IT GETS TAKEN BY THE MID TO UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND THE GULF WATERS LATE
TODAY INTO WED. LEFT INHERITED 10 PERCENT AS AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE MOST PART
TODAY WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOW CIGS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND CLOSE TO 90S ALONG
THE RIVER OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES. TONIGHT THE DRY AIR WILL LOWER
THE CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA SO LEAN TOWARDS 10 POPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AS THE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIGS SOUTH WEDNESDAY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS A BIT RETURNING SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS
THE CWA ALLOWING FOR THAT WEAK LOW TO DISSIPATE. SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WITH MORE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
EXPECTED. LOW CHANCE OF RAIN AND LOW AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS TO RETURN TO THE 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS IN
THE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION ALONG THE COAST. LOW CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
REMAIN OVER THE GULF WATERS AS DRY AIR GRADUALLY DIMINISHES ANY
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA. TODAY DUE TO THE LIGHT TO
VARIABLE WINDS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE LINGERING AROUND THE
AREA WILL ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG TO
DEVELOP. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE WITH DAY TIME HEATING IN THE
MORNING HOUR.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...500MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. THURSDAY BRINGING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS THURS AFTERNOON. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRI AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE RGV FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST MEXICO AND
STALLS AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL ACROSS NORTHERN TAMAULIAPAS.
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO SOUTH TX
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS EAST TX
SATURDAY MOVES EASTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE AS THE WEAK LOW KEEPS SPINNING OVER THE AREA
PRODUCING ERRATIC WINDS BETWEEN 10 T 15 KNOTS. THIS LOW IS HELPING
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AT THIS TIME AND DO EXPECT THE SAME PATTERN
TO CONTINUE TODAY AND IMPROVE WEDNESDAY. THE SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SCA BUT A SCEC IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRI
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
FROM THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
51/51
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1231 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL STAY IN PLACE AT KLBB THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
KCDS WILL ALSO REMAIN VFR BUT HAS A CHANCE AT SEEING THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TIMING REMAINS QUESTIONABLE
STILL AND UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH COVERAGE IS A CONCERN AS WELL.
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SEE IF TEMPO CAN
BE REMOVED IF CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT.
JORDAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
AVIATION...
BEST CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THUNDER CHANCES DEVELOPING JUST EAST
OF KLBB EARLY THIS EVENING BUT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL. BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDER AT KCDS WERE A PROB30 GROUP WAS ADDED. VFR
OTHERWISE WILL DOMINATE. LOW CHANCE FOR CG CIGS AROUND KCDS TO
LOWER TO NEAR MVFR LEVELS THIS EVENING. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
SHORT TERM...
A MOISTURE PLUME WAS PULLING UP INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS REGION
THIS MORNING FROM THE TROPICAL NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN...WHILE AN
UPPER LOW WAS SPINNING OFF INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A TRAILING
IMPULSE EJECTING THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO MAY BE IN TANDEM WITH
A WEAKER IMPULSE CROSSING THE MOIST PLUME OVER WEST TEXAS. ISOLATED
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WERE CROSSING THE SOUTH PLAINS...HEADING INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT LIFT IS
DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY IN THIS PATTERN...WE EXPECT TO REMAIN WITHIN
THE MOIST PLUME THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SUBJECT TO AT LEAST WEAK
FORCING FROM THE TRAILING SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. MAJORITY
OF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BREAK THUNDERSTORMS OUT NEAR OR JUST EAST
OF THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE CONVERGENCE TIGHTENS A DRYLINE WITH POTENTIAL
SURFACE DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE LOWER OR EVEN MIDDLE 60S LYING JUST
TO THE EAST. STILL SOME CONCERN OVER POSSIBLE ERRORS IN MODEL
DEPICTION OF SURFACE DEWPOINT STRUCTURE...BUT OVERNIGHT TRENDS IN
WRF/NAM AND RAP SEEM TO GIVE SOME CREDENCE TO THE HIGHER MOISTURE
LEVELS. AND THIS WOULD GENERATE CONVECTIVE ENERGY UP TO 2500 JOULES
PER KILOGRAM WITH MODEST SHEAR OF 25-30 KNOTS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW HEFTY STORMS IN THIS AREA LATER TODAY. WE HAVE EDGED
PREVIOUS THUNDER CHANCES SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST FOR
LATER TODAY WHILE RETAINING BULK OF PREVIOUS FORECAST. WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON....FAVORED A CONSALL/
CONSRAW ENSEMBLE APPROACH A NOTCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD DOMINATES THE WEATHER
PATTERN.
A COLD FRONT/RETREATING DRYLINE MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH IS POSITIVELY TILTED AS
IT BARRELS OUT ONTO THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY. FURTHERMORE...THE
TIMING OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS NOT GREAT. A BULK OF THE LARGE SCALE
LIFT WILL NOT SPREAD OVER THE AREA UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. WE WILL
STILL SEE A GOOD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS UNTIL THIS POINT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HANG ON TO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EAST
OF THE DRYLINE. BUT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER THAN TODAY.
THE COLD FRONT FROM THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUNCH THROUGH ON
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WILL NOT PLOW
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON LEAVING POSSIBLE STORM CHANCES IN THIS AREA. AFTER THE
COLD FRONT AND TROUGH ON THURSDAY...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ENTER
THE REGION WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN US. A WEAK SHORT WAVE ON
SUNDAY WILL HAVE LITTLE CONSEQUENCE ON ANY WEATHER IMPACTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL IN THE MORNING WITH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS THE COOLEST DIPPING DOWN INTO THE 40S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 80 54 83 52 71 / 10 0 0 0 0
TULIA 83 57 86 55 73 / 10 20 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 83 58 86 55 73 / 20 20 10 10 10
LEVELLAND 84 59 86 56 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 84 60 87 56 75 / 20 20 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 85 60 87 57 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 85 59 88 57 77 / 20 10 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 88 64 93 58 78 / 20 30 20 20 10
SPUR 86 62 91 64 81 / 20 30 10 20 10
ASPERMONT 89 67 93 69 85 / 20 20 20 20 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
651 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals the next 24 hours.
Light south winds this morning will increase 10 to 15 KT by late
morning, diminishing by early evening. Isolated convection may
develop late this afternoon and evening but is expected to remain
west of the terminals. Stratus may develop across the Hill Country
of Texas late tonight, possibly reaching the southern terminals
towards daybreak. Northward extent and coverage of low clouds
is still in question and will leave out of the TAF`s at this
time.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
SHORT TERM...
/Today and Tonight/
A compact upper low embedded within a broader western CONUS
trough, will lift northeast across the Dakotas today. Westerly
flow aloft within the base of the upper trough will induce a
weak surface trough in the lee of the Rockies today, with the
trough axis extending south across West Texas. Isolated to
scattered convection is expected to develop along and east of
this feature late this afternoon and evening. Some of this activity
may reach far western sections by early evening, with the most
favored area across the western Big Country counties generally west
of a Throckmorton to Sweetwater line. Kept 20 POPs going across this
area this evening and overnight.
Convection should be more isolated farther south, but could move
into far western portions of the Concho Valley and Crockett county
by early evening. It is interesting to note that the RUC and some
of the high resolution models develop convection farther east across
the Big Country and Concho valley during peak heating. While this
can`t be ruled out entirely, due to minimal CAP and a convective
temperature around 90 degrees, the lack of any surface feature will
preclude mentioning POPs at this time. The thermal ridge will be a
bit stronger and farther east today, which will result in afternoon
highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Lows tonight will be
mainly in the upper 60s.
LONG TERM...
/Wednesday through Monday/
The main concern in the extended forecast is the potential for
showers and thunderstorms in association with a cold front, followed
by cooler temperatures. Highs on Wednesday will be above seasonal
normals, generally in the lower to mid 90s. The NAM is indicating
some convergence along a surface trough, mainly across the western
Big Country, during the late afternoon/evening hours Wednesday,
resulting in isolated showers and thunderstorms. Slight chance PoPs
were included across the western Big Country for this time frame.
An upper level trough will move across The Rockies Wednesday, then
across the Plains Thursday. This will send a cold front through West
Central Texas during the day Thursday, clearing the area by early
evening. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible along the front, mainly across the southern and eastern
half of the area, where better moisture will reside. Only minor
tweaks were made to the current PoPs, with the best chance across
the Northwest Hill Country. Cooler, near seasonal, temperatures are
forecast behind the front on Friday and Saturday, with highs in the
low to mid 80s, and overnight lows in the 50s to near 60. A slow
warm up will ensue Sunday through early next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 89 69 91 71 87 / 10 10 10 20 20
San Angelo 91 69 92 72 88 / 5 10 5 10 20
Junction 88 67 91 73 90 / 0 5 5 10 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
648 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.AVIATION...
BEST CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THUNDER CHANCES DEVELOPING JUST EAST
OF KLBB EARLY THIS EVENING BUT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL. BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDER AT KCDS WERE A PROB30 GROUP WAS ADDED. VFR
OTHERWISE WILL DOMINATE. LOW CHANCE FOR CG CIGS AROUND KCDS TO
LOWER TO NEAR MVFR LEVELS THIS EVENING. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
SHORT TERM...
A MOISTURE PLUME WAS PULLING UP INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS REGION
THIS MORNING FROM THE TROPICAL NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN...WHILE AN
UPPER LOW WAS SPINNING OFF INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A TRAILING
IMPULSE EJECTING THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO MAY BE IN TANDEM WITH
A WEAKER IMPULSE CROSSING THE MOIST PLUME OVER WEST TEXAS. ISOLATED
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WERE CROSSING THE SOUTH PLAINS...HEADING INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT LIFT IS
DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY IN THIS PATTERN...WE EXPECT TO REMAIN WITHIN
THE MOIST PLUME THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SUBJECT TO AT LEAST WEAK
FORCING FROM THE TRAILING SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. MAJORITY
OF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BREAK THUNDERSTORMS OUT NEAR OR JUST EAST
OF THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE CONVERGENCE TIGHTENS A DRYLINE WITH POTENTIAL
SURFACE DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE LOWER OR EVEN MIDDLE 60S LYING JUST
TO THE EAST. STILL SOME CONCERN OVER POSSIBLE ERRORS IN MODEL
DEPICTION OF SURFACE DEWPOINT STRUCTURE...BUT OVERNIGHT TRENDS IN
WRF/NAM AND RAP SEEM TO GIVE SOME CREDENCE TO THE HIGHER MOISTURE
LEVELS. AND THIS WOULD GENERATE CONVECTIVE ENERGY UP TO 2500 JOULES
PER KILOGRAM WITH MODEST SHEAR OF 25-30 KNOTS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW HEFTY STORMS IN THIS AREA LATER TODAY. WE HAVE EDGED
PREVIOUS THUNDER CHANCES SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST FOR
LATER TODAY WHILE RETAINING BULK OF PREVIOUS FORECAST. WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON....FAVORED A CONSALL/
CONSRAW ENSEMBLE APPROACH A NOTCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD DOMINATES THE WEATHER
PATTERN.
A COLD FRONT/RETREATING DRYLINE MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH IS POSITIVELY TILTED AS
IT BARRELS OUT ONTO THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY. FURTHERMORE...THE
TIMING OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS NOT GREAT. A BULK OF THE LARGE SCALE
LIFT WILL NOT SPREAD OVER THE AREA UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. WE WILL
STILL SEE A GOOD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS UNTIL THIS POINT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HANG ON TO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EAST
OF THE DRYLINE. BUT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER THAN TODAY.
THE COLD FRONT FROM THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUNCH THROUGH ON
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WILL NOT PLOW
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON LEAVING POSSIBLE STORM CHANCES IN THIS AREA. AFTER THE
COLD FRONT AND TROUGH ON THURSDAY...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ENTER
THE REGION WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN US. A WEAK SHORT WAVE ON
SUNDAY WILL HAVE LITTLE CONSEQUENCE ON ANY WEATHER IMPACTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL IN THE MORNING WITH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS THE COOLEST DIPPING DOWN INTO THE 40S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 80 54 83 52 71 / 10 0 0 0 0
TULIA 83 57 86 55 73 / 10 20 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 83 58 86 55 73 / 20 20 10 10 10
LEVELLAND 84 59 86 56 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 84 60 87 56 75 / 20 20 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 85 60 87 57 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 85 59 88 57 77 / 20 10 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 88 64 93 58 78 / 20 30 20 20 10
SPUR 86 62 91 64 81 / 20 30 10 20 10
ASPERMONT 89 67 93 69 85 / 20 20 20 20 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
630 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE KBRO
TERMINAL AND CEILINGS HAVE LOWER BETWEEN IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS MFE AND HRL. THESE VISIBILITIES WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING BY MID MORNING. THE WEAK LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING
SLOWLY NORTH INTO CRP AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA WILL ENHANCE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING HOURS AND VEER SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LATEST SATELLITE AND
WATER VAPOR OBSERVATIONS SHOW RIDGE MIGRATING EASTWARD AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY.
THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH THE HIGH PRESSURE EAST AND DEEPENS THE LEE
SIDE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS EXTENDING INTO THE CWA GRADUALLY
INCREASING WINDS BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
SOUTHERN HIDALGO COUNTY AND UNDERNEATH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DEPICTED OVER THE AREA WITH 00Z KBRO SOUNDING SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE
CONCENTRATED UP TO 800 MB. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ONLY REACH 1.72
INCHES AND THAT IS DUE TO THE DRY MID LEVEL AIR MOVING IN WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS OF 8Z...RADAR SHOWS SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT FAVORING NORTHERN KENEDY COUNTY AND EASTERN HIDALGO AND
CAMERON AND IT IS MAINLY RAP RAP AROUND THE WEAK LOW/MCV. THE CONVECTION
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND MOVE INTO
BROOKS COUNTY BY MID DAY AS THE WEAK LOW MOVES FURTHER INLAND BEFORE
IT GETS TAKEN BY THE MID TO UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND THE GULF WATERS LATE
TODAY INTO WED. LEFT INHERITED 10 PERCENT AS AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE MOST PART
TODAY WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOW CIGS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND CLOSE TO 90S ALONG
THE RIVER OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES. TONIGHT THE DRY AIR WILL LOWER
THE CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA SO LEAN TOWARDS 10 POPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AS THE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIGS SOUTH WEDNESDAY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS A BIT RETURNING SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS
THE CWA ALLOWING FOR THAT WEAK LOW TO DISSIPATE. SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WITH MORE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
EXPECTED. LOW CHANCE OF RAIN AND LOW AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS TO RETURN TO THE 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS IN
THE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION ALONG THE COAST. LOW CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
REMAIN OVER THE GULF WATERS AS DRY AIR GRADUALLY DIMINISHES ANY
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA. TODAY DUE TO THE LIGHT TO
VARIABLE WINDS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE LINGERING AROUND THE
AREA WILL ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG TO
DEVELOP. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE WITH DAY TIME HEATING IN THE
MORNING HOUR.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...500MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. THURSDAY BRINGING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS THURS AFTERNOON. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRI AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE RGV FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST MEXICO AND
STALLS AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL ACROSS NORTHERN TAMAULIAPAS.
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO SOUTH TX
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS EAST TX
SATURDAY MOVES EASTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE AS THE WEAK LOW KEEPS SPINNING OVER THE AREA
PRODUCING ERRATIC WINDS BETWEEN 10 T 15 KNOTS. THIS LOW IS HELPING
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AT THIS TIME AND DO EXPECT THE SAME PATTERN
TO CONTINUE TODAY AND IMPROVE WEDNESDAY. THE SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SCA BUT A SCEC IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRI
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
FROM THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
67/60
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
437 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...
/Today and Tonight/
A compact upper low embedded within a broader western CONUS
trough, will lift northeast across the Dakotas today. Westerly
flow aloft within the base of the upper trough will induce a
weak surface trough in the lee of the Rockies today, with the
trough axis extending south across West Texas. Isolated to
scattered convection is expected to develop along and east of
this feature late this afternoon and evening. Some of this activity
may reach far western sections by early evening, with the most
favored area across the western Big Country counties generally west
of a Throckmorton to Sweetwater line. Kept 20 POPs going across this
area this evening and overnight.
Convection should be more isolated farther south, but could move
into far western portions of the Concho Valley and Crockett county
by early evening. It is interesting to note that the RUC and some
of the high resolution models develop convection farther east across
the Big Country and Concho valley during peak heating. While this
can`t be ruled out entirely, due to minimal CAP and a convective
temperature around 90 degrees, the lack of any surface feature will
preclude mentioning POPs at this time. The thermal ridge will be a
bit stronger and farther east today, which will result in afternoon
highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Lows tonight will be
mainly in the upper 60s.
.LONG TERM...
/Wednesday through Monday/
The main concern in the extended forecast is the potential for
showers and thunderstorms in association with a cold front, followed
by cooler temperatures. Highs on Wednesday will be above seasonal
normals, generally in the lower to mid 90s. The NAM is indicating
some convergence along a surface trough, mainly across the western
Big Country, during the late afternoon/evening hours Wednesday,
resulting in isolated showers and thunderstorms. Slight chance PoPs
were included across the western Big Country for this time frame.
An upper level trough will move across The Rockies Wednesday, then
across the Plains Thursday. This will send a cold front through West
Central Texas during the day Thursday, clearing the area by early
evening. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible along the front, mainly across the southern and eastern
half of the area, where better moisture will reside. Only minor
tweaks were made to the current PoPs, with the best chance across
the Northwest Hill Country. Cooler, near seasonal, temperatures are
forecast behind the front on Friday and Saturday, with highs in the
low to mid 80s, and overnight lows in the 50s to near 60. A slow
warm up will ensue Sunday through early next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 89 69 91 71 87 / 10 10 10 20 20
San Angelo 91 69 92 72 88 / 5 10 5 10 20
Junction 88 67 91 73 90 / 0 5 5 10 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
24/Daniels
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
356 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...
A MOISTURE PLUME WAS PULLING UP INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS REGION
THIS MORNING FROM THE TROPICAL NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN...WHILE AN
UPPER LOW WAS SPINNING OFF INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A TRAILING
IMPULSE EJECTING THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO MAY BE IN TANDEM WITH
A WEAKER IMPULSE CROSSING THE MOIST PLUME OVER WEST TEXAS. ISOLATED
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WERE CROSSING THE SOUTH PLAINS...HEADING INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT LIFT IS
DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY IN THIS PATTERN...WE EXPECT TO REMAIN WITHIN
THE MOIST PLUME THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SUBJECT TO AT LEAST WEAK
FORCING FROM THE TRAILING SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. MAJORITY
OF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BREAK THUNDERSTORMS OUT NEAR OR JUST EAST
OF THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE CONVERGENCE TIGHTENS A DRYLINE WITH POTENTIAL
SURFACE DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE LOWER OR EVEN MIDDLE 60S LYING JUST
TO THE EAST. STILL SOME CONCERN OVER POSSIBLE ERRORS IN MODEL
DEPICTION OF SURFACE DEWPOINT STRUCTURE...BUT OVERNIGHT TRENDS IN
WRF/NAM AND RAP SEEM TO GIVE SOME CREDENCE TO THE HIGHER MOISTURE
LEVELS. AND THIS WOULD GENERATE CONVECTIVE ENERGY UP TO 2500 JOULES
PER KILOGRAM WITH MODEST SHEAR OF 25-30 KNOTS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW HEFTY STORMS IN THIS AREA LATER TODAY. WE HAVE EDGED
PREVIOUS THUNDER CHANCES SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST FOR
LATER TODAY WHILE RETAINING BULK OF PREVIOUS FORECAST. WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON....FAVORED A CONSALL/
CONSRAW ENSEMBLE APPROACH A NOTCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
RMCQUEEN
&&
.LONG TERM...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD DOMINATES THE WEATHER
PATTERN.
A COLD FRONT/RETREATING DRYLINE MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH IS POSITIVELY TILTED AS
IT BARRELS OUT ONTO THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY. FURTHERMORE...THE
TIMING OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS NOT GREAT. A BULK OF THE LARGE SCALE
LIFT WILL NOT SPREAD OVER THE AREA UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. WE WILL
STILL SEE A GOOD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS UNTIL THIS POINT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HANG ON TO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EAST
OF THE DRYLINE. BUT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER THAN TODAY.
THE COLD FRONT FROM THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUNCH THROUGH ON
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WILL NOT PLOW
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON LEAVING POSSIBLE STORM CHANCES IN THIS AREA. AFTER THE
COLD FRONT AND TROUGH ON THURSDAY...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ENTER
THE REGION WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN US. A WEAK SHORT WAVE ON
SUNDAY WILL HAVE LITTLE CONSEQUENCE ON ANY WEATHER IMPACTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL IN THE MORNING WITH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS THE COOLEST DIPPING DOWN INTO THE 40S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 80 54 83 52 71 / 10 0 0 0 0
TULIA 83 57 86 55 73 / 10 20 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 83 58 86 55 73 / 20 20 10 10 10
LEVELLAND 84 59 86 56 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 84 60 87 56 75 / 20 20 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 85 60 87 57 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 85 59 88 57 77 / 20 10 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 88 64 93 58 78 / 20 30 20 20 10
SPUR 86 62 91 64 81 / 20 30 10 20 10
ASPERMONT 89 67 93 69 85 / 20 20 20 20 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
332 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LATEST SATELLITE AND
WATER VAPOR OBSERVATIONS SHOW RIDGE MIGRATING EASTWARD AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY.
THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH THE HIGH PRESSURE EAST AND DEEPENS THE LEE
SIDE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS EXTENDING INTO THE CWA GRADUALLY
INCREASING WINDS BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
SOUTHERN HIDALGO COUNTY AND UNDERNEATH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DEPICTED OVER THE AREA WITH 00Z KBRO SOUNDING SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE
CONCENTRATED UP TO 800 MB. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ONLY REACH 1.72
INCHES AND THAT IS DUE TO THE DRY MID LEVEL AIR MOVING IN WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS OF 8Z...RADAR SHOWS SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT FAVORING NORTHERN KENEDY COUNTY AND EASTERN HIDALGO AND
CAMERON AND IT IS MAINLY RAP RAP AROUND THE WEAK LOW/MCV. THE CONVECTION
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND MOVE INTO
BROOKS COUNTY BY MID DAY AS THE WEAK LOW MOVES FURTHER INLAND BEFORE
IT GETS TAKEN BY THE MID TO UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND THE GULF WATERS LATE
TODAY INTO WED. LEFT INHERITED 10 PERCENT AS AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE MOST PART
TODAY WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOW CIGS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND CLOSE TO 90S ALONG
THE RIVER OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES. TONIGHT THE DRY AIR WILL LOWER
THE CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA SO LEAN TOWARDS 10 POPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AS THE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIGS SOUTH WEDNESDAY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS A BIT RETURNING SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS
THE CWA ALLOWING FOR THAT WEAK LOW TO DISSIPATE. SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WITH MORE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
EXPECTED. LOW CHANCE OF RAIN AND LOW AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS TO RETURN TO THE 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS IN
THE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION ALONG THE COAST. LOW CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
REMAIN OVER THE GULF WATERS AS DRY AIR GRADUALLY DIMINISHES ANY
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA. TODAY DUE TO THE LIGHT TO
VARIABLE WINDS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE LINGERING AROUND THE
AREA WILL ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG TO
DEVELOP. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE WITH DAY TIME HEATING IN THE
MORNING HOUR.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...500MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. THURSDAY BRINGING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS THURS AFTERNOON. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRI AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE RGV FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST MEXICO AND
STALLS AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL ACROSS NORTHERN TAMAULIAPAS.
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO SOUTH TX
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS EAST TX
SATURDAY MOVES EASTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE AS THE WEAK LOW KEEPS SPINNING OVER THE AREA
PRODUCING ERRATIC WINDS BETWEEN 10 T 15 KNOTS. THIS LOW IS HELPING
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AT THIS TIME AND DO EXPECT THE SAME PATTERN
TO CONTINUE TODAY AND IMPROVE WEDNESDAY. THE SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SCA BUT A SCEC IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRI
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
FROM THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 85 77 87 80 / 20 10 10 10
BROWNSVILLE 87 76 89 79 / 20 10 10 10
HARLINGEN 88 75 90 79 / 20 10 10 10
MCALLEN 89 76 92 79 / 20 10 10 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 90 75 93 78 / 20 10 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 79 85 81 / 20 10 10 20
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
67/61
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LATEST SATELLITE AND
WATER VAPOR OBSERVATIONS SHOW RIDGE MIGRATING EASTWARD AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY.
THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH THE HIGH PRESSURE EAST AND DEEPENS THE LEE
SIDE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS EXTENDING INTO THE CWA GRADUALLY
INCREASING WINDS BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
SOUTHERN HIDALGO COUNTY AND UNDERNEATH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DEPICTED OVER THE AREA WITH 00Z KBRO SOUNDING SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE
CONCENTRATED UP TO 800 MB. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ONLY REACH 1.72
INCHES AND THAT IS DUE TO THE DRY MID LEVEL AIR MOVING IN WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS OF 8Z...RADAR SHOWS SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT FAVORING NORTHERN KENEDY COUNTY AND EASTERN HIDALGO AND
CAMERON AND IT IS MAINLY RAP RAP AROUND THE WEAK LOW/MCV. THE CONVECTION
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND MOVE INTO
BROOKS COUNTY BY MID DAY AS THE WEAK LOW MOVES FURTHER INLAND BEFORE
IT GETS TAKEN BY THE MID TO UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND THE GULF WATERS LATE
TODAY INTO WED. LEFT INHERITED 10 PERCENT AS AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE MOST PART
TODAY WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOW CIGS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND CLOSE TO 90S ALONG
THE RIVER OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES. TONIGHT THE DRY AIR WILL LOWER
THE CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA SO LEAN TOWARDS 10 POPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AS THE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIGS SOUTH WEDNESDAY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS A BIT RETURNING SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS
THE CWA WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
WITH MORE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED. LOW CHANCE OF RAIN AND LOW
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS TO RETURN TO THE 90S
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS IN THE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION ALONG THE COAST.
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF WATERS AS DRY AIR COMPLETELY
DIMINISHES THE POTENTIAL AND THE WEAK LOW IS NO LONGER IN PLACE TO
PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN. TODAY
DUE TO THE LOW TO VARIABLE WIND AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS
RAIN LINGERING AROUND THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
PATCHY GROUND FOG.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...500MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. THURSDAY BRINGING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS THURS AFTERNOON. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRI AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE RGV FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST MEXICO AND
STALLS AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL ACROSS NORTHERN TAMAULIAPAS.
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO SOUTH TX
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS EAST TX
SATURDAY MOVES EASTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE AS THE WEAK LOW KEEPS SPINNING OVER THE AREA
PRODUCING ERRATIC WINDS BETWEEN 10 T 15 KNOTS. THIS LOW IS HELPING
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AT THIS TIME AND DO EXPECT THE SAME PATTERN
TO CONTINUE TODAY AND IMPROVE WEDNESDAY. THE SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SCA BUT A SCEC IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRI
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
FROM THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 85 77 87 80 / 20 10 10 10
BROWNSVILLE 87 76 89 79 / 20 10 10 10
HARLINGEN 88 75 90 79 / 20 10 10 10
MCALLEN 89 76 92 79 / 20 10 10 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 90 75 93 78 / 20 10 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 79 85 81 / 20 10 10 20
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
67/61
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1050 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
PRECIPITATION TIMING IS THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST.
RADAR TIME LAPSE INDICATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THESE SHOWERS WERE
DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY CONTINUED INTO NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HRRR MODEL APPEARED TO DO A BETTER JOB OF
DEPICTING THIS THAN THE NAM/GFS/EC/SREF. STILL...HAVE LEFT SHOWERS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DUE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
SURFACE FLOW BECOMES QUITE LIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK...DUE TO A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. HAVE AREAS OF FOG AROUND DAYBREAK DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE...LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...AND 12Z MOS
GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW VISIBILITIES IN FOG.
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY SHOULD
BE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE FRONT
TOWARD WISCONSIN. HAVE RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES INCREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW APPROACHES.
THE WET CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...AND
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WARMER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
PCPN TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SFC LOW LIFTING NNE ALONG
A STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SPREADING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THURSDAY
EVENING. A FEW TSTMS SHOULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OVER ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. A DECREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT...AND THE REST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
A DEEP UPPER TROF/UPPER LOW APPROACHES. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...FRIDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER
THAN ON THURSDAY.
THE UPPER TROF WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT...
SO SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BECOME LAKE-
ENHANCED OVER NC WI...WHERE COLD NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS THERE. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION
OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR NC WI LATE...AS H8 TEMPS DROP
TO -2 TO -4 C. A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN WI...THEN TAPER OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WIND TRAJECTORIES BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO..WITH SEVERAL S/W TROFS
ROTATING THROUGH WI. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND LLVL WINDS WILL
BE TOO WESTERLY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE-EFFECT. WILL HAVE LOW
POPS (15-30 PERCENT) OVER MOST OF THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...
ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES. IF PCPN OCCURS OVER NORTHERN WI...
A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/MORNING PERIODS.
EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO MIDWEEK...WITH A BIT OF
A WARMUP POSSIBLE. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THOUGH...
AS MODELS SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF H8 TEMPS OVER THE WSTRN GREAT
LAKES. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE H8 TEMPS OF +16 TO +20 OFF THE
00Z ECMWF...AS THEY SEEM ANOMALOUS COMPARED TO THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS...AND UNLIKELY WITH A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
TO IFR IN MOST PLACES LATE TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD RISE FROM IFR
EARLY TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING DURING THE EVENING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......RDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
852 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
.UPDATE...
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAK WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE PUSHING IN IS HELPING TO TRIGGER
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE
LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO DRIFTING INTO THE AREA AND HELPING THINGS
ALONG. OVERALL THE FORCING IS WEAK...SO EXPECT MAINLY SCT SHOWERS
WITH A THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. THE HRRR IS SHOWING THE SCATTERED
STUFF IN THE WEST FAIRLY ACCURATELY. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS TO BE TOO
FAR NORTH AND TOO STRONG WITH THE PRECIP MOVING ACROSS ILLINOIS.
THE HRRR BRINGS THIS IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST RATHER SOLIDLY AND
THIS LOOKS OVERDONE. GIVEN TRENDS...I MAY HAVE TO BACK AWAY FROM
THE LIKELY POPS AND KEEP IT MORE IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY IF
THINGS DON/T START TO EXPAND OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. IT LOOKS
LIKE ALL OF THIS WILL MOVE OUT BY ABOUT 4 AM TONIGHT WITH A LULL
IN THE PRECIP UNTIL THE NEXT ROUND MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON
ON THURSDAY. TEMPS WON/T DROP MUCH FROM HERE WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION ONGOING.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OVERNIGHT. TRENDS ARE LOOKING A BIT DRIER THAN THE MODELS
INDICATED EARLIER. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OUT BY AROUND 09Z
THURSDAY WITH A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED UNTIL MORE
ARRIVES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS FALL OFF LATER TONIGHT WITHIN A
WEAK TROF MOVING IN. MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING BTWN 09-10Z THU AND CONTINUING THROUGH
ABOUT 15-17Z THU. WE MAY EVEN SEE SOME IFR CIGS DEVELOP FOR A
SHORT TIME...CENTERED AROUND SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
AHEAD OF THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. IN THE
OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY EVENING...MORE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
ANTICIPATED AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT COMBINED WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE
BASED ON LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS SEEMS TO BE FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT
UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK. KEPT TEMPS ON THE MILDER SIDE TONIGHT DUE TO
CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION.
LOOKS LIKE A LULL IN PRECIP TOMORROW MORNING...WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP TO THE
SOUTH. COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS...WITH MODELS SHOWING CAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS WELL...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO AT LEAST 1.50 INCHES. SPC HAS KEPT THE DAY 2 SLIGHT
RISK SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER...WITH 5 PERCENT PROBS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
SEEMS TO AGREE WITH STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION SOUTH.
THOUGH TEMPS ALOFT INCREASE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...KEPT HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 70 FOR TOMORROW...AS CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIMIT HEATING.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED THU NT FROM SW WI TO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WITH COLD FROPA IN ITS WAKE. THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BOOST PWS TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH
MUCAPE UP TO 500 J/KG. SFC-850 MB MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE AND
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCT TSTORMS FROM
THU AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SPC DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH BUT SOME STRONG STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED AVAILABLE CAPE.
THE COLD FROPA WILL OCCUR QUICKLY FROM W-E AFTER 06Z. AT LEAST
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS
AN UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW WHILE A MUCH STRONGER
UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO MN.
A LARGE POLAR TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL USA ON FRI...SLIGHTLY MOVING EWD ON SAT. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
LINGER FRI AM IN FAR ERN WI WHILE INSTABILITY SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE FRI AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING
GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS FRI NT...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN ON SAT. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
KEEP TEMPS FALLING ON FRI WITH CHILLY CONDITIONS INTO SAT AS THE
925-850 MB COLD POOL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE LARGE POLAR TROUGH WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BEFORE THEN...SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN NW FLOW
WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL WARM EACH
DAY BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WED.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A FEW STORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE
AND UPSTREAM OBS...MAY SEE LOWER CIGS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. COULD ALSO
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG.
LOOKS MAINLY DRY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT. LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
MARINE...
COULD SEE A FEW WIND GUSTS APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
TONIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW CRITERIA. WESTERLY
WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GEHRING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1021 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.UPDATE...
LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER
WILL PERSIST IN THE EAST WITH SOME AFTERNOON CLEARING TO SCATTERED
OR BROKEN IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CWA. EXPECTING CLOUDS TO
FILL IN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WED MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
WILL HANG ON TO STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF TODAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE EAST. SOME AREAS MIGHT HANG ON TO MVFR CONDITIONS INTO
WEDNESDAY. WILL EVALUATE 12Z GUIDANCE AND ADJUST TAFS ACCORDINGLY.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE STATE TODAY THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT
BETWEEN DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
ANOTHER LIFTING ALMOST DUE NORTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS FROM WRN
NEBRASKA.
CLOUD COVER THE BIG PROBLEM TODAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION TRAPPING
MOISTURE UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. NAM KEEPS CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF A DELLS...MADISON TO JANESVILLE
LINE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT MID-MORNING TO THE
WEST. GFS KEEPS EASTERN THIRD UNDER THE CLOUDS...WITH HRRR HOLDING
LOW CLOUDS JUST ALONG THE LAKE AFTER 17Z. WILL TREND CLOUDS WITH A
BLEND...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION EASES LATER THIS MORNING WITH A SLIGHT
UPWARD TREND IN 925 MB TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.
MARGINAL 850 MB/LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL DEVELOPING SOME
SPRINKLES ALONG THE LAKE FROM SRN MILWAUKEE COUNTY SOUTH ON MKE TDWR
BUT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH AS 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE LATER THIS
MORNING.
CLOUDS AND COOLEST 925 MB TEMPS KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
NORTHEAST...RISING TO THE LOWER 60S SW WITH THE PROSPECT OF SOME
SUNSHINE.
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
MODELS KEEP 700 MB OMEGA ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER WITH BETTER
FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AS FORECAST AREA
REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH. WILL NOT BRING
POPS INTO CWA THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND EXPECTED
REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S
EAST...WITH A BIT MORE MIXING AND WARMER 925 MB TEMPS HOLDING LOWS
IN THE MID 40S WEST.
LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
FLOW WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE U.S.. AN AMPLE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE WILL BE TAPPED FOR THIS SYSTEM. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES UP TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WHICH IS VERY HIGH FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
THE FIRST WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN WI ON
WED...BUT LESS CONFIDENCE ABOUT ENOUGH FORCING OR MOISTURE WITH THIS
INITIAL ROUND TO ALLOW FOR PRECIP. THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL ARRIVE THU
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE FORCING AND STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
CAPE SHOULD BE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND ALLOW FOR THUNDER. THE NAM
SUGGESTS A BREEZY DAY ON THU GIVEN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...
WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE MORE RESERVED. I LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER
WINDS GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH SUN
WILL PEEK THROUGH WHILE SOUTHERN WI IS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THU
AFTERNOON OR IF THE RAIN WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER. THERE IS FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THU
EVENING...SO I KEPT TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX IS
EXPECTED TO BARREL THROUGH SOUTHERN WI FRI MORNING. THEN THE UPPER
TROUGH COULD HANG AROUND THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
IT IS LOOKING LIKE A COOL AND CLOUDY WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING. QUESTION
THEN IS WHEN/IF DECK SCATTERS OUT/LIFTS TO VFR. ALL GUIDANCE IS TOO
LOW WITH CURRENT STRATUS DECK BUT LEANING TOWARD MORE OPTIMISTIC
GFS/HRRR WHICH WILL SCATTER OUT AT KMSN AROUND 16Z-17Z...AND EASTERN
TAF SITES IN THE MID-AFTERNOON WHERE MOISTURE OFF THE LAKE WILL SLOW
IMPROVEMENT. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH HIGH NOSING DOWN INTO REGION. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG POTENTIAL EAST AS ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS
LAKE MOISTURE INLAND.
MARINE... CURRENT END TIME FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD AS
WINDS ARE SLOWLY LOWERING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO EASE AS HIGH
NOSES INTO REGION. WAVES SHOULD BE 4 FEET OR LESS BY 18Z.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SM/DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
349 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE STATE TODAY THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT
BETWEEN DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
ANOTHER LIFTING ALMOST DUE NORTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS FROM WRN
NEBRASKA.
CLOUD COVER THE BIG PROBLEM TODAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION TRAPPING
MOISTURE UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. NAM KEEPS CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF A DELLS...MADISON TO JANESVILLE
LINE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT MID-MORNING TO THE
WEST. GFS KEEPS EASTERN THIRD UNDER THE CLOUDS...WITH HRRR HOLDING
LOW CLOUDS JUST ALONG THE LAKE AFTER 17Z. WILL TREND CLOUDS WITH A
BLEND...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION EASES LATER THIS MORNING WITH A SLIGHT
UPWARD TREND IN 925 MB TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.
MARGINAL 850 MB/LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL DEVELOPING SOME
SPRINKLES ALONG THE LAKE FROM SRN MILWAUKEE COUNTY SOUTH ON MKE TDWR
BUT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH AS 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE LATER THIS
MORNING.
CLOUDS AND COOLEST 925 MB TEMPS KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
NORTHEAST...RISING TO THE LOWER 60S SW WITH THE PROSPECT OF SOME
SUNSHINE.
.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
MODELS KEEP 700 MB OMEGA ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER WITH BETTER
FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AS FORECAST AREA
REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH. WILL NOT BRING
POPS INTO CWA THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND EXPECTED
REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S
EAST...WITH A BIT MORE MIXING AND WARMER 925 MB TEMPS HOLDING LOWS
IN THE MID 40S WEST.
.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
FLOW WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE U.S.. AN AMPLE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE WILL BE TAPPED FOR THIS SYSTEM. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES UP TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WHICH IS VERY HIGH FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
THE FIRST WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN WI ON
WED...BUT LESS CONFIDENCE ABOUT ENOUGH FORCING OR MOISTURE WITH THIS
INITIAL ROUND TO ALLOW FOR PRECIP. THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL ARRIVE THU
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE FORCING AND STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
CAPE SHOULD BE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND ALLOW FOR THUNDER. THE NAM
SUGGESTS A BREEZY DAY ON THU GIVEN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...
WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE MORE RESERVED. I LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER
WINDS GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH SUN
WILL PEEK THROUGH WHILE SOUTHERN WI IS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THU
AFTERNOON OR IF THE RAIN WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER. THERE IS FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THU
EVENING...SO I KEPT TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX IS
EXPECTED TO BARREL THROUGH SOUTHERN WI FRI MORNING. THEN THE UPPER
TROUGH COULD HANG AROUND THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
IT IS LOOKING LIKE A COOL AND CLOUDY WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING. QUESTION
THEN IS WHEN/IF DECK SCATTERS OUT/LIFTS TO VFR. ALL GUIDANCE IS TOO
LOW WITH CURRENT STRATUS DECK BUT LEANING TOWARD MORE OPTIMISTIC
GFS/HRRR WHICH WILL SCATTER OUT AT KMSN AROUND 16Z-17Z...AND EASTERN
TAF SITES IN THE MID-AFTERNOON WHERE MOISTURE OFF THE LAKE WILL SLOW
IMPROVEMENT. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH HIGH NOSING DOWN INTO REGION. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG POTENTIAL EAST AS ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS
LAKE MOISTURE INLAND.
&&
.MARINE... CURRENT END TIME FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD AS
WINDS ARE SLOWLY LOWERING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO EASE AS HIGH
NOSES INTO REGION. WAVES SHOULD BE 4 FEET OR LESS BY 18Z.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1156 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
IT WAS AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
AS A INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN COLORADO. A COLD FRONT SWEEPING OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW
INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG
WINDS ALOFT PRODUCED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED WITH
A TSTORM SOUTH OF ALLIANCE EARLIER THIS EVENING. WITH THE SQUALL
LINE EAST OF OUR PANHANDLE COUNTIES...THE TORNADO WATCH WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM. ISOLATED TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...WITH SOME HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS FOR
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN ATOP ONE TO THREE INCHES
THAT FELL LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...
STRONG WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
700MB WINDS PEAK AROUND 65 KT BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND RAWLINS AND
THE COLORADO BORDER AND WHEATLAND. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH NOON TUESDAY. FINALLY...
ENOUGH COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TO LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO
8500 FT OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. UPDATED ZONES
ALREADY SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
CONVECTIVE LINE WAS ALREADY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON EXTENDING
FROM ROCK RIVER SSE TOWARDS THE DENVER METRO AREA. ATMOSPHERIC
DESTABILIZATION ALBEIT WEAK HAS BEEN UNDERWAY BEHIND THE MORNING
CONVECTION AND AHEAD OF THIS SECONDARY CONVECTIVE LINE. ALTHOUGH
LINGERING CLOUD COVER HAS INHIBITED IT SOME. 21Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACED
THE 1003MB LOW SOUTH OF PUEBLO WITH PRESSURE FALLS TO THE NORTH
ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR TOWARDS DENVER. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED
1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE NOSING INTO THE SRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS A BAND
OF 40-50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPROACHED FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT SATELLITE PIX SHOWED WAS LIFTING
NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT INTO
COLORADO BY 6 PM BEFORE CLOSING OFF NR THE WY/NE STATE LINE BY
MIDNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW NOW LOCATED NR PUEBLO WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AND DEEPEN TO
993MB BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES SO...LLVL SOUTHEAST FLOW
COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL SPEED MAX TO DRAW A
FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE EARLY THIS
EVENING. LATEST HRRR HAS DONE WELL WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION SO FAR
AND SUGGESTS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BE GREATEST WHILE STORM MODES
ARE DISCRETE...WITH EVEN A FEW ROTATING UPDRAFTS CONTAINING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE. THIS
WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE FROM EASTERN LARAMIE COUNTY EAST TO
SIDNEY. BY EARLY/MID-EVENING SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY
AS CONVECTION BECOMES A MORE HOMOGENEOUS AREA OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MANY OF
THESE AREAS OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE RECEIVED 1-2 INCHES THIS
MORNING AND WITH ANOTHER AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES ON ITS WAY OVERNIGHT.
THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WARRANTED TONIGHT. THE OTHER CONCERN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE AREA IS ITS IMPACT ON WINDS. SW/NE ORIENTED GRADIENTS
TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT CONTINUING THRU TUESDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL EVENT...THIS PUTS THE WIND PRONE AREAS
IN SE WYOMING UNDER THE GUN. EVEN THOUGH KCAG-KCPR GRADIENTS ARE A
BIT MARGINAL...H7 PROGS CONTINUE TO POINT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HIGH WIND SET-UP EARLY TUESDAY. WILL KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING
GOING AS INHERITED.
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE FOR A TIME NR THE PINE RIDGE
TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST BY MIDDAY. FLOW
WILL WESTERLY FOR TUESDAY...BUT THE CWFA WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY
THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE ROCKIES. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LESS.
THE NEXT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST THRU THE
CWFA FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVR THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS AND PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ON
TUESDAY...BACK INTO THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN
INTO THE 50S ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
PRETTY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IN PLACE. SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN
MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY ON THURS. NO PRECIP IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THURS WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND 0C. A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON FRI AND THEN CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH 700MB TEMPS RISING TO 5-10C. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT
IS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON THURS THROUGH SUN...IT WILL STILL BE
BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY WITH
GOOD MIXING IN PLACE. EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25-30
KT ON MOST AFTNS. PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE VERY
LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERAL RIDGING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A LACK OF MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH
TONIGHT. EXPECT PREVAILING IFR VIS IN THE RAIN. CDR WILL ALSO ALSO
SEE SOME LIFR CIGS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF AFTER 03Z OVER SOUTHEAST WY AND AFTER 06Z IN THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY AND GUSTY. GUSTS TO 30-35
KT WILL BE COMMON THROUGH TUES AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS INTO THE DISTRICTS THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
BRING WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS TO A LARGE PART OF THE
DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SOME AREAS IN THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE PICKED UP 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN THIS
MORNING AND ARE IN LINE FOR ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES...PERHAPS LOCALLY
HIGHER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH NOON TUESDAY. WIND
PRONE AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL BECOME VERY WINDY LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN
EFFECT. THE COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE LIGHTER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TUESDAY FOR WYZ106-110-116-117.
NE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NEZ002-003-019>021-054-
055-095-096.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
421 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ALONG WITH A FEW MORNING SPRINKLES AND AREAS OF
FOG...CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK FOR SUNSHINE TODAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL STORM OVER NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND AWAY
FROM THE REGION. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA NEAR CAPE COD. AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY SLIDES
EASTWARD...IT IS PULLING MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND
PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT.
WITH THESE SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITHIN THE
BROAD EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THEY ARE TRACKING INTO PARTS OF SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND LITCHFIELD HILLS THIS MORNING. A FEW
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH
EASTWARD TO KEEP ANY PRECIP EAST OF OUR AREA AND CONFINED TO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS THIS HAPPENED
BY ABOUT 8 AM...SO WILL DROP ALL POPS OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY
THE MID MORNING HOURS.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN SHOWERS IS PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS /STRATUS/
AND AREAS OF FOG. WITH A LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE TODAY...IT
WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BECOME MIXED OUT.
AS A RESULT...WE CAN EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...WITH CLOUDS EVENTUALLY BREAKING FOR INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF SUN DURING THE AFTN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE THE CLOUDS CURRENTLY
AREN/T AS THICK...AND MORE SUN CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S...WITH THE
WARMEST ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. TEMPS IN THE CAPITAL REGION/HUDSON
VALLEY LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A BRIEF AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP THANKS TO THE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY...WITH THE MOST CLOUDS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WITH 850
HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 TO 11 DEGREES C...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOST OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...ALTHOUGH
WESTERN AREAS WILL START TO SEE SOME SHOWERS BY LATER IN THE
NIGHT. MIN TEMPS FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.
THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DEEPENING TROUGH THAT WILL
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT FOR SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS /ABOUT 3 TO 5 STD ABOVE NORMAL
ACCORDING TO THE 850 HPA V WINDS ON THE 00Z GEFS/ WILL BE IN
PLACE...ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. PWATS WILL EXCEED 1.50 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WHICH IS ABOUT 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AS A RESULT...A LINE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL
PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AS WELL...WHICH MAY SLOW DOWN
THE FRONT/S PROGRESS AS WELL...ALLOWING FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINFALL. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ABOUT A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF
RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FOR SATURDAY. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS AS WELL DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS IN PLACE.
WE WON/T MENTION THUNDER AT THIS TIME...AS INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
LACKING. WITH THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS...IT WILL BE COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY THE EVENING
HOURS...ALLOWING FOR COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION.
WITH MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT...SOME ADDITIONAL CYCLONIC FLOW/LAKE
ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO
FOR SAT NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING...WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH
THE AXIS WEST OF OUR REGION...PUTTING OUR REGION IN THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW PORTION OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS FROM THE EXITING COLD FRONT WILL EXIT SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
RAPIDLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL WINDS OFF
THE GREAT LAKES...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD EXTEND FROM THE LAKES
INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES AS TO ANOTHER UPPER
IMPULSE...BASED MORE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...POSSIBLY TRACKING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THROUGH OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND SOME BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS RETROGRADES
A LITTLE. THERE IS A LOOSE CONSENSUS IN SOME WARMING AND
RETROGRADING OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE DISAGREEMENTS ARE WHETHER WE
GET LITTLE TO NO COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OR BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS...DEPENDING ON THE PRESENCE OR NON PRESENCE OF WELL DEFINED
UPPER DYNAMICS. FOR NOW...INDICATING JUST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...BUT
THE DETAILS HOW MUCH POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TUESDAY WILL GET CLEARER AS
WE GET NEARER TO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...WITH LOWER 60S
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THERE ARE ALSO CONFLICTS IN GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES AS TO WHETHER ANOTHER
UPPER IMPULSE AND THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY.
THE RAPID UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS DIFFICULT FOR LONG RANGE GUIDANCE TO
RESOLVE. SO...JUST INDICATING SHOWERS EXITING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SOME UPPER
50S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL
LEVEL LOW EXITING THE REGION HAVE LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. SOME SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AT KALB AND KPSF WITH CHANCES DECREASING TOWARD
DAYBREAK.
CLOUDS HEIGHTS WILL BE JUST ABOVE 3000 FEET AT KGFL BUT TRENDING
DOWNWARD TO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AND REMAIN MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 18Z.
CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN IFR AND VFR PERIODICALLY AT KALB THROUGH
ABOUT 12Z. CEILINGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AT KPOU AND KPSF SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH ABOUT 20Z-22Z. VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY VFR WITH ANY RAIN BEING VERY LIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY AT KALB AND KGFL AFTER
10Z...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...WHICH IS NOT
TOO FAR WEST OF THE TAF SITES CURRENTLY. SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KPSF AND KPOU...KPSF WITH POSSIBLE
LIGHT RAIN AND KPOU WITH SOME POSSIBLE PARTIAL CLEARING. IT SHOULD
BE MENTIONED THAT CURRENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE AND RADAR SUGGEST ANY
CLEARING WILL TAKE QUITE SOME TIME TO SPREAD EAST...EVEN THOUGH IT
IS INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND CENTRAL/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.
ONCE THE SYSTEM EXITS...CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT ABOVE 3000 FEET AFTER
18Z-22Z AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPSF FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT.
GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY WITH VFR DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING
BUILDS IN.
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH A LIGHT N-NE FLOW AT LESS
THAN 6 KT SHIFTING TO E-SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THURSDAY...TRENDING
BACK TO VARIABLE/CALM DURING THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ALONG WITH SOME AREAS OF MORNING FOG...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING. THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL
DROP TO 50 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS.
RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH FOG AND DEW
FORMATION AND NEARLY CALM WINDS.
AFTER MORNING FOG BURNS OFF TOMORROW...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO
45 TO 50 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE
5 TO 10 MPH ON FRIDAY. A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. OTHERWISE...DRY
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.
WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION...A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MOST AREAS WILL SEE
BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH AND ONE INCH OF RAINFALL. ASIDE FROM SOME
PUDDLES ON ROADWAYS...THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.
MAINLY DRY...BUT MUCH COOLER....WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. OVERALL...AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS LOOK TO MAINLY HOLD
STEADY OR ONLY SLIGHTLY RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
133 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
.AVIATION...VFR AND LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THIS MORNING. WINDS DO LOOK TO TURN ONSHORE AT THE ATLANTIC COAST
TERMINALS (EXCEPT PERHAPS KTMB) AND THIS WILL HELP TO INITIATE
SCATTERED TSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DUE TO THE ONLY SCATTERED COVERAGE
EXPECTED, HAVE KEPT JUST VCTS FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. ANY IMPACTS OF MVFR OR IFR WOULD BE BRIEF SHOULD
A TSTORM AFFECT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 916 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014/
UPDATE...
RADAR SHOWING CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED LATER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGH. MUCH OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION
LOOKS TO BE RUNNING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS DRIFTED A
LITTLE SOUTH, AND IS SITTING JUST TO THE NORTH OF JUPITER. SO,
HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, AND ADDED SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEATHER THIS EVENING FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS,
AND PALM BEACH COAST. THE HRRR DOES CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS
SHOULD COME TO AN END OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014/
AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BECOMING ENHANCED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ATTM SO KEPT VCTS THROUGH 02Z FOR ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS EXCEPT
KPBI. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE SEEN JUST WEST OF THE EAST COAST
SITES AND MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE TERMINALS BUT SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW.
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AND
PUSHING INTO THE TERMINALS SO PREVAILED A GENERAL EASTERLY WIND AT
ALL EAST COAST SITES EXCEPT KTMB WHICH MAY BE JUST TOO FAR INLAND
TO SEE AN EASTERLY WIND.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014/
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)
THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AND INDICATES THE MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP TO 10 KFT COMBINED WITH THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY
AS THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS. MODEL PWAT GRADIENTS REFLECT
THIS POTENTIAL AND INDICATE VALUES RANGING FROM 1.62" ALONG THE
GULF COAST UP TO AROUND 2" ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS TIME...PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS THE EAST
COAST AREAS.
/AG
LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND AS NOW BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE SENDING THE
FIRST COLD FRONT OF THIS FALL SEASON ACROSS SOUTH FL SATURDAY NIGHT
AND OFF OUR COAST SUNDAY MORNING. GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SUPPORTING THIS
FROPA IDEA AS WELL...WITH THE AVERAGE OF THE MEMBERS A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW THE OPERATIONAL GFS MOS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
THIS...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST COOLER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
WOULD BE A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE FROM THE SULTRY HIGH DEWPOINTS
WE`VE FELT SINCE MAY...WELL INTO THE 70S. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S ON A NICE NORTHERLY BREEZE. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN THE LOWER-MID 80S. LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 60S INTERIOR AND GULF COAST BOTH SAT AND
SUN NIGHT...AND LOWER 70S EAST COAST METRO WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY...LETTING US KNOW THAT IT IS INDEED FALL.
THIS IS PRETTY EARLY IN THE SEASON FOR A COLD FRONT, BUT THE PATTERN
OF AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS DOES NOT SEEM TO
WANT TO LET GO AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF EVEN
AFTER TEMPORARY FLOW CHANGES. GIVEN THIS, AN EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT
ISN`T SHOCKING...AND IN FACT THE LONGER RANGE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AS WE ENTER MID OCTOBER. COULD THIS BE THE BEGINNING OF A
PARADE OF COLD FRONTS? TOO EARLY TO SAY, BUT I`M INCLINED TO BELIEVE
SO GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCKED SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
/GREGORIA
MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS CONTINUING. THE FIRST STRONG COLD FRONT OF
THE FALL SEASON IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH IN ITS
WAKE ON SUNDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTH, ESPECIALLY OFF THE PALM BEACH COAST.
/AG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 86 76 86 / 20 50 10 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 87 76 87 / 20 50 10 50
MIAMI 76 87 75 87 / 20 50 10 50
NAPLES 76 86 76 85 / 0 30 10 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
300 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014
TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL EXIT THE AREA BY
NOON TIME LEAVING A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BLOW THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAIN IMPACT WITH
THIS WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND A ONE TO THREE HOUR
PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. CENTER OF 12MB 3 HOURLY
PRESSURE RISE COUPLET ENTERS YUMA COUNTY AROUND 07Z STEADILY MOVING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE INTERSTATE BY 09Z THEN SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT
EXITS THE AREA BY 12Z. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBILITY OF A
WIND ADVISORY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS AN AREA OF LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND MODESTLY LOW INHIBITION. THIS
AREA OF INSTABILITY IS NEAR THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF APPROACHING
130+KT 250 JET. FELT THAT A THUNDERSTORM CANT BE RULED OUT AROUND
09Z FOR AREAS FROM TRENTON TO HILL CITY AND POINTS EAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID 30S TO AROUND 40 EAST OF THE CO/KS
BORDER. FROST AND POSSIBLY A FREEZE FOR PARTS OF FAR EASTERN
COLORADO WEST OF A LINE FROM YUMA TO STRATTON TO NEAR WILD HORSE.
WILL LET DAYSHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT 12Z DATA BEFORE DECIDING ON
POSSIBLE HEADLINES.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
DURING THE MORNING WITH A SLOW DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. GENERALLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE
NORTH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S. FROST POSSIBLE FOR THE KIT CARSON TO AROYA
COLORADO AREA AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR WRAY COLORADO TO NEAR GEM
AND HILL CITY KANSAS. FREEZE POSSIBLE IN RED WILLOW COUNTY.
HILITES POSSIBLY NEEDED. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE POSSIBLE AT
MCCOOK (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). HAVE ADDED RECORD/NEAR RECORD
WORDING TO THE ZFPGLD.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS 70 TO 75 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY A
MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
OVER UPPER ONTARIO AND A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING STABLE CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE TRI
STATE AREA. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR OCTOBER. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD
WILL FALL BETWEEN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WHICH IS ALSO
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AT KGLD AND
KMCK AS NORTHWEST WIND DECREASES AND TEMPERATURES COOL TO THE
DEWPOINT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE HRRR INDICATE THAT STRATUS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING OCTOBER 4TH AT
MCCOOK NEBRASKA. CURRENT RECORD LOW FOR THE DATE IS 32 DEGREES SET
BACK IN 1911.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...FS
CLIMATE...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
219 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED STRONG TROUGH
MOVING INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. AT THE SFC...FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH FRONT DRAPED FROM KLBL TO
KMCI.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL CENTER AROUND
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS
IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WHILE SEEING CURRENT DRY AIR IN THE AREA
DOES CAUSE SOME CONCERN ON PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BULK OF NEAR TERM
MODELS ALL INDICATE A TAP OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING NEAR SFC FRONT
AND INTERACTING WITH ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE THIS EVENING. MIXING
RATIOS IN THIS PLUME ARE HIGH AND WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
EXPECT A DECENT RESPONSE TO PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS.
SOMEWHAT SURPRISED BY CONSISTENCY OF QPF OUTPUT FROM AVAILABLE
DATA SOURCES AND AM COMFORTABLE INCREASING GENERAL AMOUNTS TO 0.25
TO 0.75 AT MOST LOCATIONS. CHOSE NOT TO GO ON THE HIGH END OF
PRECIPITATION THOUGH...DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS OVER
MOISTURE QUALITY. FORCING WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNRISE AS DEEP
CAA TAKES OVER. SURPRISINGLY...SOME LOW TOPPED INSTABILITY DOES
EXIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SO A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS APPEAR
WARRANTED.
OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE WINDS BEHIND STRONG COLD
FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. 12Z NAM AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE THE RAP INDICATE STRONG 3 HR PRESSURE RISES IN EXCESS OF
6MB AS FRONT PASSES. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT. PLAYED UP WINDS A
BIT IN THE FORECAST...BUT UNTIL STRONG PRESSURE RISES/GUSTS BECOME
MORE APPARENT IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA PLAN ON HOLDING OFF ON ANY
HIGHLIGHTS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY A
MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
OVER UPPER ONTARIO AND A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING STABLE CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE TRI
STATE AREA. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR OCTOBER. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD
WILL FALL BETWEEN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WHICH IS ALSO
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AT KGLD AND
KMCK AS NORTHWEST WIND DECREASES AND TEMPERATURES COOL TO THE
DEWPOINT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE HRRR INDICATE THAT STRATUS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1117 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED STRONG TROUGH
MOVING INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. AT THE SFC...FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH FRONT DRAPED FROM KLBL TO
KMCI.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL CENTER AROUND
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS
IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WHILE SEEING CURRENT DRY AIR IN THE AREA
DOES CAUSE SOME CONCERN ON PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BULK OF NEAR TERM
MODELS ALL INDICATE A TAP OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING NEAR SFC FRONT
AND INTERACTING WITH ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE THIS EVENING. MIXING
RATIOS IN THIS PLUME ARE HIGH AND WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
EXPECT A DECENT RESPONSE TO PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS.
SOMEWHAT SURPRISED BY CONSISTENCY OF QPF OUTPUT FROM AVAILABLE
DATA SOURCES AND AM COMFORTABLE INCREASING GENERAL AMOUNTS TO 0.25
TO 0.75 AT MOST LOCATIONS. CHOSE NOT TO GO ON THE HIGH END OF
PRECIPITATION THOUGH...DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS OVER
MOISTURE QUALITY. FORCING WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNRISE AS DEEP
CAA TAKES OVER. SURPRISINGLY...SOME LOW TOPPED INSTABILITY DOES
EXIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SO A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS APPEAR
WARRANTED.
OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE WINDS BEHIND STRONG COLD
FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. 12Z NAM AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE THE RAP INDICATE STRONG 3 HR PRESSURE RISES IN EXCESS OF
6MB AS FRONT PASSES. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT. PLAYED UP WINDS A
BIT IN THE FORECAST...BUT UNTIL STRONG PRESSURE RISES/GUSTS BECOME
MORE APPARENT IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA PLAN ON HOLDING OFF ON ANY
HIGHLIGHTS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...
A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
ALONG WITH FRONT END OF H3 JET ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING I DECIDED TO
KEEP 20 POPS ACROSS NW PART OF CWA THURSDAY NIGHT DESPITE LIMITED
MOISTURE PROFILES. STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY OR ADVISORY WINDS (45 MPH)
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVERNIGHT. NAM IN PARTICULAR SHOWS
6HR PRESSURE RISES IN EXCESS OF 10MB WHICH IS CONCERNING AND COULD
INDICATE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF WARNING CRITERIA WINDS. IF THERE IS
VIRGA OR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MAY ALSO HELP MIX STRONGER WINDS TO
THE SURFACE. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON HEADLIGHTS...BUT THIS NEEDS
TO BE MONITORED.
GRADIENT RELAXES FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL JET AND
TROUGH AXIS MOVE EAST...HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL STRONG WINDS ALOFT
OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. PROFILES WOULD LIMIT
MIXING TO BELOW WHERE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE FRIDAY DESPITE
SUNNY CONDITIONS...SO ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SEEM UNLIKELY DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. SHOULD STILL BE WINDY...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
VERY COOL AIR MASS SETTLES INTO REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IF
IT WASNT FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AIR
MASS WOULD HAVE SUPPORTED A HARD FREEZE (LOOKS LIKE WELL LUCK OUT).
CLEAR SKIES...LOW TD...AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE
MODERATING AS A RIDGE OVER THE SW US BEGINS TO BUILD EAST. MOST OF
THE CWA SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING...THOUGH PATCHY FROST WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHERE OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 33-35F RANGE ARE EXPECTED.
SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY...
GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS WESTERN US
WITH MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM SHIFTING WELL NORTH AND EAST OF
CWA. ECMWF IS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND CLOSE
UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES POSSIBLY BRINGING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
BACK TO NORTHERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS OUR CWA. THERE
ISNT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY ON THIS WEAK FEATURE BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLES SO I KEPT SUN/SUN NIGHT DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THESE PERIODS WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
LOWER 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS.
CONSENSUS/MODEL BLEND SEEMED APPROPRIATE...SO LITTLE CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AT KGLD AND
KMCK AS NORTHWEST WIND DECREASES AND TEMPERATURES COOL TO THE
DEWPOINT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE HRRR INDICATE THAT STRATUS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
110 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVY FOR THE ERN HALF OF OUR MN AND MOST OF
OUR WI CWA. COLD FRONT IS MAKING LITTLE IF ANY PROGRESS EAST AND
AT 11 PM WAS ONLY TO A REDWOOD FALLS TO LONG PRAIRIE LINE...WITH
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR STRATUS ALREADY IN PLACE. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FROM RAINS YESTERDAY...EXPECT THIS
STRATUS TO DESCEND TO THE GROUND AND BECOME DENSE FOG TONIGHT.
INITIAL AREA ISSUED FOR WAS BASED ON WHERE THE HRRR SHOWS DENSE
FOG FORMING...ALONG WITH WHERE THE 21Z HOPWRF SHOWS 75% OR GREATER
PROBABILITIES FOR VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A HALF MILE. WILL WATCH
VISIBILITY TRENDS THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THINKING WE WILL
PROBABLY HAVE TO FILL IN RUSK/CHIP/EAU CLAIRE COUNTIES AS WELL. IF
FRONT DOES NOT MAKE MUCH MORE PROGRESS EAST IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...MAY HAVE TO ADD A ROW OR TWO OF COUNTIES ON THE WEST END
AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW...AREA WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR SEEING
DENSE FOG IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE ADVY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS A STACKED LOW OVER MANITOBA...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY STRADDLING THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER. THE FIRST
RELATED WAVE OF LIFT GENERATED A HEALTHY AREA OF SHOWERS THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT FROM EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI TOWARD
LAKE SUPERIOR. IN ITS WAKE...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PESKY STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE
CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY NEAR EAU
CLAIRE.
ON THURSDAY...THE NEXT WAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM OVER SOUTH/EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL
WI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS HOW FAR WEST THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL EXTEND. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE NAM/ECMWF
WHICH RESTRICT THE CATEGORICAL POPS EAST OF A REDWOOD FALLS TO ST
CLOUD MN LINE. HAVE INCLUDED 70-80 POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL HANG IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S UNDER THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WITH LOW/MID 60S ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE LONG TERM FORECAST PICKS UP
DURING QUITE AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER. AN IMPRESSIVE FALL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE COMING TOGETHER ACROSS THE MIDWEST BY
THURSDAY EVENING...AND WILL SPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES
INTO SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN. AT THIS
TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS POSITIONED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION TODAY...WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH A DEEPLY AMPLIFIED NORTHERN TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
ALBERTA THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN. STRONG FRONTOGENESIS...ACCOMPANIED BY
DECENT DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE
FOCUSED FROM A LINE NEAR FAIRMONT...THROUGH THE EAST METRO TOWARD
TAYLORS FALLS AND AREAS TO THE EAST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL ADVANCE
NORTHEAST FROM MISSOURI TO NEAR GREEN BAY BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY AS
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN TROUGHS PHASE TOGETHER. FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN MINNESOTA...FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY
DRY. HOWEVER...THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL CREATE VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS AS A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH MOVE IN TO MONTANA...MEANING
QUITE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
THROUGH THE DAY. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD BY
MID DAY...AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HOLD DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. COLD AIR
ADVECTION LOOKS STRONGER AT THIS POINT WITH 850H TEMPS OF -4 TO
-6...SO COOLED HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY BY ABOUT TWO TO THREE DEGREES
EVERYWHERE...MEANING MOST WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S...WITH WIND
CHILL VALUES LOWER THAN THAT. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS INDICATE AN
AREA OF DECENT THETA-E ADVECTION MOVING THROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SYSTEM WHICH MAY PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MIXING IN SOME
SNOWFLAKES OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN...BUT AT
THIS TIME NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DURING THIS PERIOD...THE AFOREMENTIONED
FALL SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE NORTH TOWARD HUDSON BAY AND CONTINUE
DEEPENING INITIALLY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
OUR AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP THE STRONG NORTHWEST WIND
FLOWING OVER OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME...MEANING QUITE A COLD
WEEKEND IS IN STORE. EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S WILL BE COMMON...WITH AREAS IN THE NORTHWEST POTENTIALLY
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING. FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE STRONG
SYSTEM WILL RETROGRADE TO JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE HUDSON BAY AND
BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
PUSHING EAST AND 850H TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE 60S FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. DISAGREEMENT
REMAINS BETWEEN THE GFS/EC ABOUT THE UPPER PATTERN TOWARD THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL DICTATE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
MIDWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
TWO CONCERNS THE TAF PERIOD ARE THE DENSE FOG IN THE PROCESS OF
FORMING AND THE TIMING OF RAIN LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. AT 6Z...THE FRONT IS ONLY TO ABOUT A RWF TO LONG
PRAIRIE LINE. EAST OF THE FRONT IT IS UGLY...WITH LIFR CIGS
QUICKLY BECOMING 1/4SM OR LESS FG. AXN WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
FOG...AM HOPING THE FRONT WILL WORK THROUGH RWF ENOUGH TO KEEP
THEM OUT OF THE FOG...BUT WILL BE CLOSE. FOR STC/MSP/RNH/EAU...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT DENSE FOG WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE
THROUGH 15Z. ONLY QUESTION REALLY IS WHEN DOES IT HAPPEN. HAVE IT
HAPPENING AT MSP THE LATEST. AREA OF RAIN CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL NEB
WILL BE HEADING THIS WAY THIS MORNING. STUCK CLOSE TO A
GFS/HRRR/RAP/HOPWRF BLEND FOR BRINGING RAIN ACROSS ALL MN
TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND WI TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH TODAY...BUT THU EVENING...WE WILL
FINALLY START TO GET SOME PRESSURE RISES INTO WRN MN...MARKING THE
BEGINNING OF WHAT WILL BE A BREEZY THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
KMSP...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTING
THE MORNING PUSH THIS MORNING AT MSP. GIVEN HOW WIDESPREAD THE
DENSE FOG IS AROUND THE CITIES AT 6Z...MSP WILL NOT BE ESCAPING
THE FOG. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW LOW TO GO WITH VSBYS...BUT
CURRENT TAF MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE THAT
VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING WILL DROP BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS...WITH
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AIRPORT ARRIVAL RATES LIKELY BETWEEN 10Z
AND 14Z. AFTER THAT...STUCK CLOSE TO WHAT THE PREVIOUS TAF HAD
FOR THE TIMING OF RAIN INTO THE FIELD...AND LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE
ANOTHER SEVERAL HOUR ROUND OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...MUCH LIKE WE
SAW YESTERDAY. BY THE END OF THE TAF...MSP WILL START FEELING THE
STRONGER WINDS...BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT NW WINDS AND GUSTS WILL
NOT NEED TO SHOW UP UNTIL THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MAINLY MVFR WITH CHC -SHRA. WINDS WNW 20G30 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ043>045-
050>053-059>063-066>070-074>078-082>085-091>093.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ014-015-
023>026.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MPG
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1113 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVY FOR THE ERN HALF OF OUR MN AND MOST OF
OUR WI CWA. COLD FRONT IS MAKING LITTLE IF ANY PROGRESS EAST AND
AT 11 PM WAS ONLY TO A REDWOOD FALLS TO LONG PRAIRIE LINE...WITH
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR STRATUS ALREADY IN PLACE. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FROM RAINS YESTERDAY...EXPECT THIS
STRATUS TO DESCEND TO THE GROUND AND BECOME DENSE FOG TONIGHT.
INITIAL AREA ISSUED FOR WAS BASED ON WHERE THE HRRR SHOWS DENSE
FOG FORMING...ALONG WITH WHERE THE 21Z HOPWRF SHOWS 75% OR GREATER
PROBABILITIES FOR VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A HALF MILE. WILL WATCH
VISIBILITY TRENDS THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THINKING WE WILL
PROBABLY HAVE TO FILL IN RUSK/CHIP/EAU CLAIRE COUNTIES AS WELL. IF
FRONT DOES NOT MAKE MUCH MORE PROGRESS EAST IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...MAY HAVE TO ADD A ROW OR TWO OF COUNTIES ON THE WEST END
AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW...AREA WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR SEEING
DENSE FOG IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE ADVY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS A STACKED LOW OVER MANITOBA...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY STRADDLING THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER. THE FIRST
RELATED WAVE OF LIFT GENERATED A HEALTHY AREA OF SHOWERS THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT FROM EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI TOWARD
LAKE SUPERIOR. IN ITS WAKE...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PESKY STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE
CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY NEAR EAU
CLAIRE.
ON THURSDAY...THE NEXT WAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM OVER SOUTH/EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL
WI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS HOW FAR WEST THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL EXTEND. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE NAM/ECMWF
WHICH RESTRICT THE CATEGORICAL POPS EAST OF A REDWOOD FALLS TO ST
CLOUD MN LINE. HAVE INCLUDED 70-80 POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL HANG IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S UNDER THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WITH LOW/MID 60S ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE LONG TERM FORECAST PICKS UP
DURING QUITE AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER. AN IMPRESSIVE FALL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE COMING TOGETHER ACROSS THE MIDWEST BY
THURSDAY EVENING...AND WILL SPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES
INTO SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN. AT THIS
TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS POSITIONED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION TODAY...WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH A DEEPLY AMPLIFIED NORTHERN TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
ALBERTA THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN. STRONG FRONTOGENESIS...ACCOMPANIED BY
DECENT DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE
FOCUSED FROM A LINE NEAR FAIRMONT...THROUGH THE EAST METRO TOWARD
TAYLORS FALLS AND AREAS TO THE EAST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL ADVANCE
NORTHEAST FROM MISSOURI TO NEAR GREEN BAY BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY AS
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN TROUGHS PHASE TOGETHER. FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN MINNESOTA...FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY
DRY. HOWEVER...THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL CREATE VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS AS A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH MOVE IN TO MONTANA...MEANING
QUITE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
THROUGH THE DAY. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD BY
MID DAY...AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HOLD DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. COLD AIR
ADVECTION LOOKS STRONGER AT THIS POINT WITH 850H TEMPS OF -4 TO
-6...SO COOLED HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY BY ABOUT TWO TO THREE DEGREES
EVERYWHERE...MEANING MOST WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S...WITH WIND
CHILL VALUES LOWER THAN THAT. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS INDICATE AN
AREA OF DECENT THETA-E ADVECTION MOVING THROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SYSTEM WHICH MAY PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MIXING IN SOME
SNOWFLAKES OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN...BUT AT
THIS TIME NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DURING THIS PERIOD...THE AFOREMENTIONED
FALL SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE NORTH TOWARD HUDSON BAY AND CONTINUE
DEEPENING INITIALLY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
OUR AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP THE STRONG NORTHWEST WIND
FLOWING OVER OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME...MEANING QUITE A COLD
WEEKEND IS IN STORE. EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S WILL BE COMMON...WITH AREAS IN THE NORTHWEST POTENTIALLY
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING. FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE STRONG
SYSTEM WILL RETROGRADE TO JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE HUDSON BAY AND
BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
PUSHING EAST AND 850H TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE 60S FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. DISAGREEMENT
REMAINS BETWEEN THE GFS/EC ABOUT THE UPPER PATTERN TOWARD THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL DICTATE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
MIDWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME OVER
MOST OF ERN MN AND WRN WI AS STRATUS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER.
HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FROM JUST WEST OF ST CLOUD
TO JUST WEST OF MANKATO. NOT ANTICIPATING THIS CLEARING TO MAKE
MUCH OR ANY PROGRESS EASTWARD TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
STEADY OR SLOWLY DETERIORATING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A SLOW
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF MORE RAIN TO MOVE ACROSS
ERN MN AND WRN WI LATE IN THE PERIOD.
KMSP...IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING WITH MVFR
RETURNING LATE IN THE PERIOD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MAINLY MVFR WITH CHC -SHRA. WINDS WNW 20G30 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
MNZ043>045-050>053-059>063-066>070-074>078-082>085-091>093.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ014-
015-023>026.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MPG
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
248 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2014
...Severe Weather and Heavy Rainfall Expected Across the Missouri
Ozarks Today and This Evening...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 222 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
There will be active weather during the morning commute for some
across the Missouri Ozarks and southeast Kansas. Convection has
been redeveloping across northeast Oklahoma and southeast Kansas
moving slowly to the northeast. The HRRR has been handling this
well and will see this convection continue mainly along and north
of I-44 through mid morning. There will be a risk for stronger
convection to develop this morning with large hail and damaging
wind gusts the main threat along with frequent lightning and heavy
rainfall.
The short term models are in good agreement with the advancing
cold front moving into southeast Kansas by mid afternoon.
Initially discreet convection will develop along and just ahead of
the front between 18-20z. This convection will quickly merge into
a squall line or line segments as the line advances rather quickly
eastward. Followed the HRRR closely for the afternoon convection.
All modes of severe weather will be possible with damaging winds
being the main threat...followed by large hail...and the risk of a
couple isolated tornadoes. The line of storms will be near the
Joplin area by 4 pm and Springfield area by 6 pm. The line will be
clearing the eastern Missouri Ozarks before midnight this evening.
Will leave the ongoing Flash Flood Watch as is with the heaviest
storm total rainfall expected in the watch area where totals will
be between 2 to 5 inches. Areas southeast of I-44 will see totals
between 1 to 2 inches.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Friday will be a blustery and much cooler day with passing clouds
and perhaps some sprinkles or spotty light shower or two. The
latest guidance shows a piece of upper level energy moving across
the area especially the central Missouri area with some clouds and
sprinkles possible. Winds will be gusty up to 25 mph and
temperatures struggling to get above 60 degrees.
Skies will clear Friday evening for Friday night football around
the Missouri Ozarks but it will be chilly. The big question will
be the frost potential. Guidance is a degree or two colder again
with lows down in the middle to upper 30s likely. Wouldn`t be
surprise a few colder spots that are protected get down in the
lower 30s. Winds will possibly remain up around 5 mph or so. Will
put back in the mention of patchy frost into the forecast
especially valleys and wind protected areas. The frost potential
will need to be looked at again over the next day for any possible
headlines by Friday. People with sensitive outdoor plants will
need to pay attention to the forecast for Friday night.
Seasonably cool temperatures will stay around for the weekend and
mostly dry conditions and a northwest flow. Guidance shows another
weak mid level disturbance moving through on Monday with a few
more clouds and possible light showers. The overall flow will
flatten by the middle of next week with southerly winds returning.
A moderation in temperatures will return with above normal
temperatures by middle next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Convection should remain away from the terminals until closer to
daybreak, with storms then affecting JLN, before moving east with
time to impact SGF and BBG. Convection will initially be scattered
in nature during the morning and early afternoon hours, before
becoming better organized during the late afternoon and early
evening as a strong cold front approaches. A line of strong,
perhaps severe, thunderstorms will impact the region from west to
east tomorrow afternoon or evening, though exact timing remains
somewhat in question. IFR or lower is a good bet within stronger
storms tomorrow, along with gusty winds. Have indicated most
likely period for stronger storms with +TSRA mention, though
again, timing is subject to change.
That strong cold front will sweep across the region tomorrow
evening, with a sharp wind shift to the northwest as it passes.
MVFR cigs are then expected behind the front as much colder air
builds in.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>081-088-089.
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Boxell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1246 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2014
Have expanded the Flash Flood Watch to include the remainder of
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois (northwest of St.
Louis Metro). Locations have received heavy rainfall tonight and
expectation is that another few inches of rain overnight and later
today could push some local streams, creeks, rivers out of their
banks. Will also be watching developing line of convection across
central Missouri for any potential of severe wind gusts or hail
over the next few hours as it moves east.
Issued at 853 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014
Forecast looks to be generally on track and I don`t foresee any
major changes for the rest of the evening. Instability is waning,
but obviously there`s enough to keep some rather strong storms
going. Will most likely let WW511 expire naturally at 1000 PM. The
challenge after 1000 PM will be trying to figure out exactly where
the heaviest rain will fall for the rest of the night. It still
looks like the best threat for heavy rain and training will be
over parts of our central Missouri counties. RAP is persistently
showing moderate to strong moisture convergence at 850mb. Storms
this evening have been efficient rain producers, and I expect this
will not change. No change to flash flood watch at this time, and
will probably only tweak PoPs to match current radar trends.
Carney
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014
Lots to keep track of in the next 24 to 36 hours. First: severe
thunderstorms have developed along the outflow boundary in central
Missouri left over from storms earlier today. Modest instability
between 1000-1500 J/Kg combined with around 40 kts bulk shear have
produced a supercell which is riding the boundary. A few more
cells are developing ahead of the big storm and may continue to
strengthen. Expect the severe threat to continue into the early to
mid evening hours...generally along and south of I-70. Should see
storms weaken within a few hours of sunset, but then the low level
jet strengthens in southwest flow ahead of the broad trof over the
Rockies and developing low level circulation over the Plains. This
will bring the second area of concern into play: heavy rain.
Thunderstorms this morning and now this current round of severe
convection will saturate the ground and increase the potential for
flash flooding. Aforementioned 30-40kt low level jet is bringing
plenty of Gulf moisture up into the area. Forecast soundings show
a warm cloud depth of nearly 12,000 FT and BUFKIT is indicating
that individual convective elements may move very slowly and train
over the same locations. Current QPF from WPC shows rainfall in
excess of 3 inches over the next 24 hours with locally higher
amounts in addition to what`s already fallen. Therefore have gone
ahead and pushed a flash flood watch for parts of central,
northeast, and east central Missouri. Watch may need to be
extended further east or northeast tonight as the situation
develops.
Attention turns to tomorrow when the upper level trof moves into the
Great Plains and the associated surface system moves from northern
Oklahoma into eastern Iowa through the day. Our CWFA will be
squarely in the warm sector through the day, and even if there are
no breaks in the clouds temperatures should be at least between 80
and 85...if not a tad bit warmer. With warm, humid airmass in
place, NAM is forecasting SBCAPE values in excess of 2500 J/Kg in
some parts of the CWFA. With 30-40kts of deep layer shear, and the
approaching shortwave becoming negatively tilted , this looks like a
good setup for severe weather during the afternoon and evening
hours. The shear vector looks like it will be parallel to the front
so the most likely convective mode will be a squall line with bows
and LEWPS possible. The front will sweep through the area overnight
Thursday night and we should be into cold advection by 12Z Friday
morning.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 403 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014
Fall returns with a vengeance Friday and Saturday. Temperatures
will drop 25 to 30 degrees behind the front Friday and Saturday. It
will also be pretty breezy behind the front on Friday. Forecast
soundings show some pretty good mixing which is likely to produce
wind gusts in excess of 30 mph. Guidance is hinting at lows in the
30s across most of the area on Saturday morning, and this looks
reasonable given the strength of the cold advection. This could
easily be the coolest night of the season so far.
Temperatures slowly moderate Sunday through next Wednesday. The
highly amplified upper level pattern featuring a strong vortex just
north of the Great Lakes region and a longwave trof over the eastern
1/2 of the CONUS will slowly become more zonal through midweek. By
Wednesday the flow aloft should be nearly zonal and low level warm
advection will bring temperatures back to near or above normal.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014
Ongoing showers and thunderstorms have continued to lift a bit
further northward, so only have vcts mention for taf sites along
I-70 corridor through 12z Thursday. For KUIN, showers to persist
with some thunderstorms through the early morning hours. Will see
a break in the activity during the mid morning hours before more
significant activity fires up ahead of cold front during the
afternoon and evening hours. Winds to persist from the southeast
then veer to the south by mid morning. As cold front approaches,
winds to begin veering to the southwest between 23z Thursday and
03z Friday. Frontal passage will be beyond the forecast period.
Specifics for KSTL:
Ongoing showers and thunderstorms have continued to lift a bit
further northward, so only have vcts mention for metro area through
12z Thursday. Will see a break in the activity during the mid
morning hours before more significant activity fires up ahead of
cold front after 21z Thursday. Winds to persist from the southeast
then veer to the south 12z Thursday. As cold front approaches,
winds to begin veering to the southwest between 23z Thursday and
03z Friday. Frontal passage will be around 09z Friday with
precipitation tapering off.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-
Callaway MO-Cole MO-Gasconade MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln
MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO.
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-
Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-
Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1142 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 853 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014
Forecast looks to be generally on track and I don`t foresee any
major changes for the rest of the evening. Instability is waning,
but obviously there`s enough to keep some rather strong storms
going. Will most likely let WW511 expire naturally at 1000 PM. The
challenge after 1000 PM will be trying to figure out exactly where
the heaviest rain will fall for the rest of the night. It still
looks like the best threat for heavy rain and training will be
over parts of our central Missouri counties. RAP is persistently
showing moderate to strong moisture convergence at 850mb. Storms
this evening have been efficient rain producers, and I expect this
will not change. No change to flash flood watch at this time, and
will probably only tweak PoPs to match current radar trends.
Carney
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014
Lots to keep track of in the next 24 to 36 hours. First: severe
thunderstorms have developed along the outflow boundary in central
Missouri left over from storms earlier today. Modest instability
between 1000-1500 J/Kg combined with around 40 kts bulk shear have
produced a supercell which is riding the boundary. A few more
cells are developing ahead of the big storm and may continue to
strengthen. Expect the severe threat to continue into the early to
mid evening hours...generally along and south of I-70. Should see
storms weaken within a few hours of sunset, but then the low level
jet strengthens in southwest flow ahead of the broad trof over the
Rockies and developing low level circulation over the Plains. This
will bring the second area of concern into play: heavy rain.
Thunderstorms this morning and now this current round of severe
convection will saturate the ground and increase the potential for
flash flooding. Aforementioned 30-40kt low level jet is bringing
plenty of Gulf moisture up into the area. Forecast soundings show
a warm cloud depth of nearly 12,000 FT and BUFKIT is indicating
that individual convective elements may move very slowly and train
over the same locations. Current QPF from WPC shows rainfall in
excess of 3 inches over the next 24 hours with locally higher
amounts in addition to what`s already fallen. Therefore have gone
ahead and pushed a flash flood watch for parts of central,
northeast, and east central Missouri. Watch may need to be
extended further east or northeast tonight as the situation
develops.
Attention turns to tomorrow when the upper level trof moves into the
Great Plains and the associated surface system moves from northern
Oklahoma into eastern Iowa through the day. Our CWFA will be
squarely in the warm sector through the day, and even if there are
no breaks in the clouds temperatures should be at least between 80
and 85...if not a tad bit warmer. With warm, humid airmass in
place, NAM is forecasting SBCAPE values in excess of 2500 J/Kg in
some parts of the CWFA. With 30-40kts of deep layer shear, and the
approaching shortwave becoming negatively tilted , this looks like a
good setup for severe weather during the afternoon and evening
hours. The shear vector looks like it will be parallel to the front
so the most likely convective mode will be a squall line with bows
and LEWPS possible. The front will sweep through the area overnight
Thursday night and we should be into cold advection by 12Z Friday
morning.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 403 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014
Fall returns with a vengeance Friday and Saturday. Temperatures
will drop 25 to 30 degrees behind the front Friday and Saturday. It
will also be pretty breezy behind the front on Friday. Forecast
soundings show some pretty good mixing which is likely to produce
wind gusts in excess of 30 mph. Guidance is hinting at lows in the
30s across most of the area on Saturday morning, and this looks
reasonable given the strength of the cold advection. This could
easily be the coolest night of the season so far.
Temperatures slowly moderate Sunday through next Wednesday. The
highly amplified upper level pattern featuring a strong vortex just
north of the Great Lakes region and a longwave trof over the eastern
1/2 of the CONUS will slowly become more zonal through midweek. By
Wednesday the flow aloft should be nearly zonal and low level warm
advection will bring temperatures back to near or above normal.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014
Ongoing showers and thunderstorms have continued to lift a bit
further northward, so only have vcts mention for taf sites along
I-70 corridor through 12z Thursday. For KUIN, showers to persist
with some thunderstorms through the early morning hours. Will see
a break in the activity during the mid morning hours before more
significant activity fires up ahead of cold front during the
afternoon and evening hours. Winds to persist from the southeast
then veer to the south by mid morning. As cold front approaches,
winds to begin veering to the southwest between 23z Thursday and
03z Friday. Frontal passage will be beyond the forecast period.
Specifics for KSTL:
Ongoing showers and thunderstorms have continued to lift a bit
further northward, so only have vcts mention for metro area through
12z Thursday. Will see a break in the activity during the mid
morning hours before more significant activity fires up ahead of
cold front after 21z Thursday. Winds to persist from the southeast
then veer to the south 12z Thursday. As cold front approaches,
winds to begin veering to the southwest between 23z Thursday and
03z Friday. Frontal passage will be around 09z Friday with
precipitation tapering off.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday evening FOR Audrain MO-Boone
MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Gasconade MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
251 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
SEVERAL TIMING ISSUES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM.
INITIAL FOCUS WILL BE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTING TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA AT 07Z FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A STEADY PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. LATEST RAP HAS THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z. ALSO MAY NEED A
MENTION OF FOG FOR A SHORT TIME THIS MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA
BETWEEN HARLAN AND RED OAK WHERE VSBY IS REPORTED NEAR ZERO. WILL
MONITOR UNTIL ISSUANCE FOR ANY CHANGE AS CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO
SPREAD INTO THAT AREA.
A NEW FEATURE THAT HAS SHOWN UP IN TONIGHTS MODELS IS A SECONDARY
BAND OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO NEBRASKA TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE AND MAINLY FOR WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA AS INDICATED BY 00Z MODELS.
OTHERWISE WEATHER TURNS WINDY AND COLD BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH GOOD POTENTIAL FOR FROST OR FREEZE ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE MENTION
OF THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AND WAIT UNTIL LATER FORECAST FOR
HEADLINES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD UNTIL TOWARDS THE
END OF THE TIME FRAME WHEN ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. POPS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR NOW DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN POSTION AND TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES. SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KOFK...WITH
POSSIBLE TSRA THROUGH ABOUT 11Z. TSRA MAY IMPACT KLNK BY 09Z AND
KOMA BY 10Z. ABOUT A 2-5 HOUR WIND FOR CONVECTION...THEN INSTABILITY
MOVES EAST AND IT SHOULD END AS SHOWERS. SHOULD ALSO SEE MVFR
CEILING DEVELOP. FOG COULD ALSO IMPACT KOMA BEFORE THE RAIN
ARRIVES. WHEN THE REAL COLD FRONT ARRIVES...WINDS SUBSTANTIALLY
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 22 KNOTS...WITH
WINDS BECOMING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BY 00Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
310 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2014
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY... AND CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVER
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM THURSDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING HOLDS OVER NC THIS MORNING. FOG THUS FAR
HAS BEEN A BIT LIGHTER AND MORE PATCHY THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...
PERHAPS DUE IN PART TO AREAS OF SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS DRIFTING OVER THE
AREA... ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL PERTURBATION PASSING ESE
THROUGH THE REGION JUST EAST OF THE INCOMING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGE. ADDITIONAL MID CLOUDS OVER NE NC AND TO THE NE ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW JUST OFF NEW ENGLAND. WE MAY SEE A FEW
SPRINKLES OVER NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING... BUT THE MOISTURE APPEARS TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY APPRECIABLE
PRECIP. THE VERY LIGHT WIND FIELD IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN MAKE FOR A SLOW DISSOLUTION OF THIS MORNING`S FOG... HOWEVER
IF IT REMAINS MORE LIGHT AND PATCHY THROUGH DAYBREAK (IN CONTRAST TO
THE HRRR WHICH DEPICTS WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH SUNRISE)...
WE WOULD THEN SEE SOME SUNSHINE EARLIER THAN YESTERDAY.
REGARDLESS... FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT (JUST ABOVE 700 MB) FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. MANY OF THE CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAM/GFS AND SREF PROBABILITIES
SUGGEST THAT A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS WILL POP UP THIS AFTERNOON...
PROMPTED BY HEATING WHICH SHOULD YIELD PERHAPS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE... ALMOST ALL BELOW 700 MB. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ORIENTED
ALONG THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL ZONE MOVING NE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL BRING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM MID-LATE
AFTERNOON STRETCHING THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS DEWPOINTS CREEP UPWARD A BIT OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM
FRONTAL ZONE... EXPECT YET ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT FOG... BUT THIS
FOG SHOULD STAY LIGHT GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF STRATOCUMULUS TO CURB
NOCTURNAL COOLING. HIGHS FROM 78 NE TO 84 SW... WITH THICKNESSES
RUNNING NEARLY 10 M ABOVE NORMAL. MILD LOWS TONIGHT OF 60-64. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...
LATEST MODEL OUTPUT ARE IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF
POTENT MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ITS ATTENDING
LARGE SCALE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NOAM... AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. WE GET FULLY INTO THE WARM SECTOR
DURING FRI MORNING... AND THE FRONT ITSELF SHOULD GET INTO WRN NC BY
MID EVENING... AND THEN SWEEP EASTWARD OVERNIGHT... REACHING THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY DAYBREAK. MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT... WITH PW VALUES CLIMBING QUICKLY FROM AROUND 1 INCH
TO AT OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE KINEMATICS
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE DECENT... WITH A 35-40 KT SWRLY LOW LEVEL JET
ALIGNED JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR
INCREASING TO 30 (EAST) TO 50 (EAST) KTS FRI NIGHT. BUT THE
PROJECTED MUCAPE VALUES ARE MINOR... PEAKING AT JUST 250-500 J/KG...
MADE WORSE BY THE LOSS OF HEATING WITH AN EVENING/NIGHT PASSAGE.
DYNAMICS ARE BETTER BUT SIMILARLY MUTED... GIVEN THAT THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE TRACKING ENE OVER NC IS RATHER WEAK... AND THE BULK OF THE
HEIGHT FALLS ARE HELD TO OUR NW OVER THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY
CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL VORTEX. BUT GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELD AND
UPPER DIVERGENCE MAX SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE AREA... STILL EXPECT
GOOD SHOWER/ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE. WILL BRING IN LOW CHANCE POPS
WEST BY MID AFTERNOON... SPREADING EASTWARD WITH HIGH POPS TOPPING
OUT AT 60-80% IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT... BEFORE STARTING TO PUSH
OUT OF THE CWA TOWARD MORNING. OVERALL QPF LOOKS MEAGER WITH THIS
EVENT... LIKELY TOTALLING A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THE LOW POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY WILL GREATLY CUT THE SEVERE THREAT... ALTHOUGH A FEW
BOWING SEGMENTS MAY BRING DOWN SOME OF THE 30-40 KTS OF WIND FROM
ALOFT... EVEN WITH JUST SHOWERS. HIGHS NEAR 80 NW (WHERE CLOUDS
SHOULD BE FIRST TO SPREAD IN DURING THE AFTERNOON) TO 85 SE. LOWS 57
NW TO 66 SE. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NC EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
AHEAD OF IT...EXITING THE AREA BY NOON SATURDAY. ONCE THE RAIN ENDS
SATURDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE RAINFALL CHANCES
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...MOVING NE OVER NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A RELATIVELY COOL
AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S SATURDAY AND MID 60S EVERYWHERE SUNDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR...LOW
40S NW TO UPPER 40S SE. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE CHILLY...MID 40S
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK...
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S MONDAY INCREASING TO MID TO UPPER 70S BY
WEDNESDAY. LOWS 50-55 DEGREES MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASING INTO THE 55-
60 DEGREE RANGE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM THURSDAY...
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH STRATUS AND FOG IS
LIKELY TO DOMINATE THIS MORNING. WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE
INCLUDING VERY LIGHT OR CALM WINDS AREAWIDE AND A LACK OF CLOUDS
PROMOTING SURFACE COOLING DOWN TO THE DEWPOINTS... PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH VSBYS UNDER A HALF MILE IS LIKELY TO SPREAD AND FILL IN OVER
NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL NC EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. THESE ADVERSE
AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL
SITES BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z... AND TO VFR BY 17Z. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
VERY LOW AT CENTRAL NC TAF SITES... ALTHOUGH PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THIS MORNING COULD BRING AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR
TWO TO RDU/RWI. AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED VERY LIGHT (VFR) SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LARGELY CALM
THROUGH MID MORNING... THEN REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SE. PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOG MAY FORM
ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD (AFTER 04Z FRI).
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY FRI MORNING... PATCHY FOG SHOULD HOLD
THROUGH DAYBREAK FRI MORNING... FOLLOWED BY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
DURING MID-LATE FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FRI EVENING
THROUGH FRI NIGHT... EXITING THE EASTERN TAFS EARLY SAT MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT AFTERNOON... LASTING THROUGH
MONDAY... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
240 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2014
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY... AND CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVER
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM THURSDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING HOLDS OVER NC THIS MORNING. FOG THUS FAR
HAS BEEN A BIT LIGHTER AND MORE PATCHY THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...
PERHAPS DUE IN PART TO AREAS OF SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS DRIFTING OVER THE
AREA... ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL PERTURBATION PASSING ESE
THROUGH THE REGION JUST EAST OF THE INCOMING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGE. ADDITIONAL MID CLOUDS OVER NE NC AND TO THE NE ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW JUST OFF NEW ENGLAND. WE MAY SEE A FEW
SPRINKLES OVER NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING... BUT THE MOISTURE APPEARS TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY APPRECIABLE
PRECIP. THE VERY LIGHT WIND FIELD IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN MAKE FOR A SLOW DISSOLUTION OF THIS MORNING`S FOG... HOWEVER
IF IT REMAINS MORE LIGHT AND PATCHY THROUGH DAYBREAK (IN CONTRAST TO
THE HRRR WHICH DEPICTS WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH SUNRISE)...
WE WOULD THEN SEE SOME SUNSHINE EARLIER THAN YESTERDAY.
REGARDLESS... FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT (JUST ABOVE 700 MB) FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. MANY OF THE CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAM/GFS AND SREF PROBABILITIES
SUGGEST THAT A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS WILL POP UP THIS AFTERNOON...
PROMPTED BY HEATING WHICH SHOULD YIELD PERHAPS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE... ALMOST ALL BELOW 700 MB. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ORIENTED
ALONG THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL ZONE MOVING NE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL BRING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM MID-LATE
AFTERNOON STRETCHING THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS DEWPOINTS CREEP UPWARD A BIT OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM
FRONTAL ZONE... EXPECT YET ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT FOG... BUT THIS
FOG SHOULD STAY LIGHT GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF STRATOCUMULUS TO CURB
NOCTURNAL COOLING. HIGHS FROM 78 NE TO 84 SW... WITH THICKNESSES
RUNNING NEARLY 10 M ABOVE NORMAL. MILD LOWS TONIGHT OF 60-64. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY: THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL BE THE DRIVING
MECHANISMS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AS IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS...THE MAIN THREAT OF CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE WEST...AND UNTIL THE EVENING IN THE CENTRAL
AND EAST. SOME MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO
AREAS MAY NOT SEE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER UNTIL LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH THE DETAILS
OF TIMING AND QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT... EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE
TRENDING TOWARD THE AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTION. FOR NOW... FRIDAY
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S... EXCEPT 75-80 IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. POP WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE TIME FRAME OF 400 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT HIGHEST POP
IN THE WEST... AND 800 PM THROUGH 400 AM HIGHEST IN THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. A LEAD CONVECTIVE LINE MAY RIDE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES... FOLLOWED BY CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT ITSELF. QPF APPEARS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.50 IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT... WITH AVERAGE AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 IN THE SE (DUE
TO WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO OVERNIGHT TIMING IN THE
EASTERN ZONES).
THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR EXPECTED. ALSO... TIMING OF THE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE EAST WILL BE LATER INTO THE NOCTURNAL CYCLE... THUS THE
WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED. -PWB
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NC EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
AHEAD OF IT...EXITING THE AREA BY NOON SATURDAY. ONCE THE RAIN ENDS
SATURDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE RAINFALL CHANCES
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...MOVING NE OVER NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A RELATIVELY COOL
AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S SATURDAY AND MID 60S EVERYWHERE SUNDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR...LOW
40S NW TO UPPER 40S SE. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE CHILLY...MID 40S
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK...
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S MONDAY INCREASING TO MID TO UPPER 70S BY
WEDNESDAY. LOWS 50-55 DEGREES MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASING INTO THE 55-
60 DEGREE RANGE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM THURSDAY...
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH STRATUS AND FOG IS
LIKELY TO DOMINATE THIS MORNING. WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE
INCLUDING VERY LIGHT OR CALM WINDS AREAWIDE AND A LACK OF CLOUDS
PROMOTING SURFACE COOLING DOWN TO THE DEWPOINTS... PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH VSBYS UNDER A HALF MILE IS LIKELY TO SPREAD AND FILL IN OVER
NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL NC EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. THESE ADVERSE
AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL
SITES BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z... AND TO VFR BY 17Z. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
VERY LOW AT CENTRAL NC TAF SITES... ALTHOUGH PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THIS MORNING COULD BRING AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR
TWO TO RDU/RWI. AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED VERY LIGHT (VFR) SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LARGELY CALM
THROUGH MID MORNING... THEN REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SE. PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOG MAY FORM
ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD (AFTER 04Z FRI).
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY FRI MORNING... PATCHY FOG SHOULD HOLD
THROUGH DAYBREAK FRI MORNING... FOLLOWED BY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
DURING MID-LATE FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FRI EVENING
THROUGH FRI NIGHT... EXITING THE EASTERN TAFS EARLY SAT MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT AFTERNOON... LASTING THROUGH
MONDAY... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...PWB
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
311 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
A TRICKY SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM KANSAS CITY MISSOURI TO
NEAR AMARILLO TEXAS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. DEWPOINTS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S BUT SHOULD JUMP INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS ARE RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
MODELS INDICATE THE CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN
6AM-9AM. LATEST HRRR SHOWS SHOWERS SHOULD START POPPING ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI BY 8 AM. BY 11AM-1PM...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
GFS..NAM...AND ECMWF SEEM TO FALL IN LINE IN WHAT THE HRRR IS
SHOWING THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
FROM MID-MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY HINDER ANY THUNDERSTORMS FROM
BECOMING STRONG OR SEVERE AT LEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
ALL THE CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...HAVE KNOCKED DOWN
HIGHS TODAY A TAD. DON/T REALLY SEE ANY LOCATION HITTING 90 TODAY.
HIGHS SHOULD STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
SQUALL LINE IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND LATEST HRRR SHOWS IT STRETCHING FROM TULSA
OKLAHOMA TO NEAR ABILENE TEXAS AROUND 2 PM. THE LINE WILL MOVE
PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE LINE WILL LIKELY OUTRACE THE FRONT BY THE
EVENING HOURS. EXPECT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE MIDSOUTH...IT
MAY ENCOUNTER AN ATMOSPHERE AT LEAST SLIGHT WORKED OVER FROM
CONVECTION THAT WILL OCCUR TODAY AND NOT AS UNSTABLE AS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT A FEW DAYS AGO DUE TO CLOUD COVER. CAPE VALUES MAY GET TO
1500 J/KG WHICH IS STILL DECENT BUT NOT LIKE 2200 J/KG OR GREATER
THAT THE NAM HAS BEEN SHOWING. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH TIMING. LINE MAY NOT GET INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS UNTIL
CLOSER TO 9-10 PM. THUS INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING FROM LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. STILL EXPECT EASTERN ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL TO SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS BUT REALLY
EXPECT LINE TO START WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES EAST ESPECIALLY ONCE
IT PUSHES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MAIN THREAT FROM THE LINE
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
SINCE TIMING IS SLOWER HAVE HAD TO UPDATE POPS FOR FRIDAY TO KEEP
THEM IN LONGER. NORTH MISSISSIPPI COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THESE BECAME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH FOR THE WEEKEND AND
WILL BRING BEAUTIFUL AUTUMN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP BACK INTO
THE 70S ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF INDICATES FRONT WILL COME THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. GFS HAS TIMING OF MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT POPS AS IS WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DON/T REALLY
EXPECT ANY COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BACK
INTO THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS
SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 02/13Z AND
02Z/17Z ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. AFTER 02Z/17Z CEILINGS LIFTING
TO VFR BUT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AFTER 03/03Z AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WINDS TONIGHT SE 3-7 KTS. WINDS THURSDAY S-SW INCREASING TO 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 22 KTS AT KJBR. WINDS AFTER 03/00Z S 7-10
KTS.
JCL
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
325 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
IMMEDIATE CONCERNS INCLUDE FOG THIS MORNING AND INCOMING RAIN.
SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING HAS A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING N-S
ACROSS MN/IA. WEAKLY CONVERGENT AND VERY DAMP LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
HAS LED TO SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHEAST MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. AS A RESULT...A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM.
OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A DEEPENING
LONG WAVE BASICALLY ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS WAS TAKING PLACE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE.
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS/MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION. OVER THE LOCAL AR X FORECAST AREA...BESIDES THE
FOG...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO THE
LOWER 60S.
FOR TODAY...WILL BE WATCHING THE LOW OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE LIFT
NORTHEAST IN MO BY NOON AND NORTHERN IL BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AS
THIS OCCURS...850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALL COMBINE FORCES TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA... BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE 60S
TO THE LOWER 70S.
FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
WI. THIS PUTS ARX FORECAST AREA UNDER FAIRLY STRONG 850-500MB
FRONTOGENETIC BAND IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
DRIVE WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY RANGING FROM
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH. THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...PLAN ON RAIN TAPERING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW PULLS INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 40S
TO AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PULLING INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. PLAN ON
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35
MPH. PV-ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING MID-LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO
PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
COLDER TEMPERATURES/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS/RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALL
COMBINE FOR A PRETTY RAW DAY.
AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW ROTATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...LOOKING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO RESULT. AS TEMPERATURES
COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S LATER IN THE NIGHT...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN AT TIMES. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER IN COLD CYCLONIC FLOW. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER RAW AUTUMN DAY ON
TAP AS HIGHS ONLY TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S. CONTINUED COLD
AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA.
LONG WAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LOOKS TO MAKE PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW FILLS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO CANADA WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S/FEW LOWER 60S TUESDAY...AND IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AT TAF AIRFIELDS
GIVEN SATURATED NEAR SURFACE LAYER...CLEARING SKIES ALOFT AND VERY
LIGHT WIND. EXPECT FOG TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP BETWEEN 02.08Z TO 02.10Z
WITH VISIBILITY DROPPING BELOW 1/4SM AND CEILINGS FROM 100 TO 200
FT AGL. FOG TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BETWEEN 02.15Z AND 02.16Z
BEFORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING WITH RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ032.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094-095.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR IAZ008-009-018-
019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
753 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BRIEFLY IN ITS WAKE THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE AT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST ADJUSTED TO CURRENT OBSERVATION AND TRENDS. RAIN CONFINED TO
THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND DRIFTING WEST SOUTHWEST. ELSEWHERE
IT`S DRY WITH SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE. THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND REMOVED POPS ELSEWHERE.
LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THE IDEA THAT PCPN DISSIPATES BY LATE
MORNING. THUS HAVE RAPIDLY LOWERED POPS FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND.
OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY PIVOTING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST. ASSOCIATED VORT MAX ALMOST STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH THE 00Z MODELS SUGGESTING IT PUSHING TO THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING...THEN PUSHING OFFSHORE TO THE EAST AS THE LOW SLIPS
TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NE FLOW WILL KEEP A FAIRLY MOIST
LOWER LEVEL IN PLACE BUT GENERALLY THINKING THE LOSS OF FORCING
ALOFT WILL MINIMIZE THE PCPN CHANCES.
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HIGH TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AS WEAK WAA WOULD
SUGGEST TEMPS COULD PUSH NEAR NORMAL. HOWEVER...CLOUDY SKIES AND
PERSISTENT NE FLOW COULD KEEP TEMPS ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER SIDE.
SIDED MORE WITH THE MAV GUIDANCE TO REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING PCPN BY THIS EVENING SHOULD BE OFFSHORE SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND WITH DRY WX THEN ON TAP THROUGH FRIDAY. A SLIVER OF
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA TONIGHT/FRIDAY
BEFORE RETREATING ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN AS WELL
DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SO
SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES FOR A SHORT PERIOD LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN STREAMING IN AHEAD OF THE
LOW. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN WITH THE HIGH AS WELL...NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE FORM OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
HAVE MORE OF A HANDLE ON TEMPS FOR TONIGHT/TOMORROW...USING
GENERALLY A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE. TEMPS TONIGHT EXPECTED
TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON FRIDAY AND WAA...SHOULD SEE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALL NWP GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT WITH A COLD FROPA ON
SATURDAY. PCPN MOVES IN FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING AND EXITS IN
THE AFTN WITH CLEARING QUICKLY DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY EVENING.
HAVE CUT PREVIOUS FORECAST QPF IN COORDINATION WITH RIVER FORECAST
CENTERS. EXPECTING AROUND 1/2 INCH WITH 3/4 INCH UP IN THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY. NO HYDRO ISSUES EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CLOUDS START INCREASING LATE
MONDAY WITH WAA. OVER-RUNNING PATTERN CONTINUES ON TUES WITH CHC
POPS FOR LGT RA. WEAK AND DIFFUSE COLD FROPA PASSAGE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. HAVE MADE IT DRY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TIMING OF COLD FROPA.
LOWERED TEMPS AND MADE FOR NON-DIURNAL PATTERN ON SATURDAY WITH THE
PCPN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...BUT WE QUICKLY RETURN TO NORMAL
ON MONDAY AND THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
NO HAZARDS FORESEEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WELL E OF CAPE COD WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE AREA MOVES TO THE EAST...
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD DOWN FROM NEW ENGLAND.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD TODAY...NOT LIFTING TO VFR UNTIL
19Z-22Z FROM WEST TO EAST. N-NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT
THIS MORNING...WITH AN OCNL GUST UP TO 20 KT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST...THEN DIMINISHING TO UNDER 10 KT AS VFR CONDS ARRIVE.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS AND FLIGHT CAT.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS AND FLIGHT CAT.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS AND FLIGHT CAT.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS AND FLIGHT CAT.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS COULD BE PREVAILING FROM LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS AND FLIGHT CAT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE LATE AT THE NYC METRO AND LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS.
.SAT...RAIN WITH IFR CONDS AND SE WINDS 15-20G25KT. COLD FROPA
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT THE NYC METRO AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
TERMINALS...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDS AND W WIND G20KT.
.SAT NIGHT...RAIN WITH IFR CONDS EARLY AT THE CT/LONG ISLAND
TERMINALS...THEN COLD FROPA WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. POST-FRONTAL
W WINDS G25KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. W WINDS G20KT.
.MON...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
MINIMAL SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS LESS THE
GREAT SOUTH BAY...NY HARBOR AND THE WESTERN SOUND AS NE FLOW
INCREASES BETWEEN THE LOW OFFSHORE AND THE HIGH DIGGING DOWN FROM
THE NORTH. GUSTS BETWEEN 23 TO 28 KT EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
TODAY...THEN DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
WITH HIGH BUILDING FURTHER OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILD TODAY WITH
THE STRENGTHENING FLOW...WITH 5-9 FT POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
OCNL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT FOR THE BAYS AND LONG ISLAND SOUND. THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
NOT ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS TIME OVER THOSE WATERS. STILL
EXPECTING GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS ABOVE 5 FT ON THE OCEAN...AND
IN FACT EXPECTING THE 5 FT SEAS TO CONTINUE SO EXTENDED THE SCA
OVER THE OCEAN FOR FRIDAY.
ON THE OCEAN...SCA CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED THRU NEXT WED...WITH
PERHAPS A BRIEF RESPITE FOR PORTIONS OF MON. ELSEWHERE...25KT
WINDS POSSIBLE SAT-SUN BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A CDFNT. OTHERWISE
THEY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI EVENING. EXPECTING
AROUND 1/2 INCH WITH 3/4 UP IN THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
340.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...SEARS/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...TONGUE
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/TONGUE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
719 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BRIEFLY IN ITS WAKE THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE AT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST ADJUSTED TO CURRENT OBSERVATION AND TRENDS. RAIN CONFINED TO
THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND DRIFTING WEST SOUTHWEST. ELSEWHERE
IT`S DRY WITH SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE. THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND REMOVED POPS ELSEWHERE.
LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THE IDEA THAT PCPN DISSIPATES BY LATE
MORNING. THUS HAVE RAPIDLY LOWERED POPS FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND.
OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY PIVOTING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST. ASSOCIATED VORT MAX ALMOST STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH THE 00Z MODELS SUGGESTING IT PUSHING TO THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING...THEN PUSHING OFFSHORE TO THE EAST AS THE LOW SLIPS
TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NE FLOW WILL KEEP A FAIRLY MOIST
LOWER LEVEL IN PLACE BUT GENERALLY THINKING THE LOSS OF FORCING
ALOFT WILL MINIMIZE THE PCPN CHANCES.
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HIGH TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AS WEAK WAA WOULD
SUGGEST TEMPS COULD PUSH NEAR NORMAL. HOWEVER...CLOUDY SKIES AND
PERSISTENT NE FLOW COULD KEEP TEMPS ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER SIDE.
SIDED MORE WITH THE MAV GUIDANCE TO REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING PCPN BY THIS EVENING SHOULD BE OFFSHORE SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND WITH DRY WX THEN ON TAP THROUGH FRIDAY. A SLIVER OF
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA TONIGHT/FRIDAY
BEFORE RETREATING ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN AS WELL
DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SO
SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES FOR A SHORT PERIOD LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN STREAMING IN AHEAD OF THE
LOW. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN WITH THE HIGH AS WELL...NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE FORM OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
HAVE MORE OF A HANDLE ON TEMPS FOR TONIGHT/TOMORROW...USING
GENERALLY A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE. TEMPS TONIGHT EXPECTED
TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON FRIDAY AND WAA...SHOULD SEE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALL NWP GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT WITH A COLD FROPA ON
SATURDAY. PCPN MOVES IN FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING AND EXITS IN
THE AFTN WITH CLEARING QUICKLY DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY EVENING.
HAVE CUT PREVIOUS FORECAST QPF IN COORDINATION WITH RIVER FORECAST
CENTERS. EXPECTING AROUND 1/2 INCH WITH 3/4 INCH UP IN THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY. NO HYDRO ISSUES EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CLOUDS START INCREASING LATE
MONDAY WITH WAA. OVER-RUNNING PATTERN CONTINUES ON TUES WITH CHC
POPS FOR LGT RA. WEAK AND DIFFUSE COLD FROPA PASSAGE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. HAVE MADE IT DRY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TIMING OF COLD FROPA.
LOWERED TEMPS AND MADE FOR NON-DIURNAL PATTERN ON SATURDAY WITH THE
PCPN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...BUT WE QUICKLY RETURN TO NORMAL
ON MONDAY AND THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
NO HAZARDS FORESEEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WELL E OF CAPE COD WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE AREA MOVES TO THE EAST...
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD DOWN FROM NEW ENGLAND.
CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO LOW-END VFR IN/NEAR COASTAL SW CT...INCLUDING
KBDR/KHPN. THIS COULD POSSIBLY SPREAD SW-WARD TOWARD NYC METRO
BUT THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT EVEN IF IT DOES EXPECT TO BE
SHORT-LIVED...SO TAF MENTIONS WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS INTO THE
AFTERNOON...UNTIL AT LEAST 21Z-22Z AT MOST TERMINALS...POSSIBLY
ENDING AN HR OR TWO EARLIER AT KSWF/KHPN/KTEB/KEWR AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD SW-WARD.
N-NE FLOW SHOULD INCREASE CLOSER TO 15 KT AT MOST TERMINALS AFTER
DAYBREAK AS THE HIGH STARTS TO BUILD DOWN...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
JUST OVER 20 KT AT KISP/KGON/KLGA/KJFK. LESS FREQUENT GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT MAY OCCUR ELSEWHERE.
AS VFR CONDS RETURN LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THU EVENING...NE
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS AND FLIGHT CAT INTO
THIS AFTERNOON.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. BRIEF WINDOW OF OVC035 CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AM.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON COULD OCCUR 1-2 HRS
EARLIER THAN FCST.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS AND FLIGHT CAT THIS
MORNING. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON COULD OCCUR 1-2 HRS
EARLIER THAN FCST.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. BRIEF WINDOW OF OVC035 CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AM.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON COULD OCCUR 1-2 HRS
EARLIER THAN FCST.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL OVC035 VFR CIGS BEFORE 12Z.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON COULD OCCUR 1-2 HRS
EARLIER THAN FCST.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS AND FLIGHT CAT INTO
THIS AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT-FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE LATE AT THE NYC METRO AND LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS.
.SAT...RAIN WITH IFR CONDS AND SE WINDS 15-20G25KT. COLD FROPA
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT THE NYC METRO AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
TERMINALS...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDS AND W WIND G20KT.
.SAT NIGHT...RAIN WITH IFR CONDS EARLY AT THE CT/LONG ISLAND
TERMINALS...THEN COLD FROPA WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. POST-FRONTAL
W WINDS G25KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. W WINDS G20KT.
.MON...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
MINIMAL SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS LESS THE
GREAT SOUTH BAY...NY HARBOR AND THE WESTERN SOUND AS NE FLOW
INCREASES BETWEEN THE LOW OFFSHORE AND THE HIGH DIGGING DOWN FROM
THE NORTH. GUSTS BETWEEN 23 TO 28 KT EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
TODAY...THEN DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
WITH HIGH BUILDING FURTHER OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILD TODAY WITH
THE STRENGTHENING FLOW...WITH 5-9 FT POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
OCNL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT FOR THE BAYS AND LONG ISLAND SOUND. THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
NOT ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS TIME OVER THOSE WATERS. STILL
EXPECTING GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS ABOVE 5 FT ON THE OCEAN...AND
IN FACT EXPECTING THE 5 FT SEAS TO CONTINUE SO EXTENDED THE SCA
OVER THE OCEAN FOR FRIDAY.
ON THE OCEAN...SCA CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED THRU NEXT WED...WITH
PERHAPS A BRIEF RESPITE FOR PORTIONS OF MON. ELSEWHERE...25KT
WINDS POSSIBLE SAT-SUN BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A CDFNT. OTHERWISE
THEY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI EVENING. EXPECTING
AROUND 1/2 INCH WITH 3/4 UP IN THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
340.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...SEARS/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...TONGUE
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/TONGUE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
717 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK FOR SUNSHINE TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND AWAY
FROM THE REGION. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 632 AM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED JUST SOUTHEAST
OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING AWAY...BUT BEFORE IT
DOES...IT IS PULLING MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND PRODUCING
SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT. WITH THESE
SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITHIN THE BROAD
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THEY ARE TRACKING INTO PARTS OF SRN VT...THE
BERKSHIRES...AND LITCHFIELD HILLS THIS MORNING. WHILE SHOWERS HAVE
MAINLY DIMINISHED OVER OUR AREA...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. THE LATEST 08Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS ANY ACTIVITY AFTER
THIS TIME REMAINING WELL EAST OF OUR AREA.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN SHOWERS IS PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS /STRATUS/
AND SOME PATCHES OF FOG. WITH A LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE
TODAY...IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BECOME
MIXED OUT. AS A RESULT...WE CAN EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH CLOUDS EVENTUALLY BREAKING FOR INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUN DURING THE AFTN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE THE CLOUDS
CURRENTLY AREN/T AS THICK...AND MORE SUN CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING.
MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S...WITH THE
WARMEST ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. TEMPS IN THE CAPITAL REGION/HUDSON
VALLEY LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A BRIEF AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP THANKS TO THE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY...WITH THE MOST CLOUDS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WITH 850
HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 TO 11 DEGREES C...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOST OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...ALTHOUGH
WESTERN AREAS WILL START TO SEE SOME SHOWERS BY LATER IN THE
NIGHT. MIN TEMPS FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.
THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DEEPENING TROUGH THAT WILL
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT FOR SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS /ABOUT 3 TO 5 STD ABOVE NORMAL
ACCORDING TO THE 850 HPA V WINDS ON THE 00Z GEFS/ WILL BE IN
PLACE...ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. PWATS WILL EXCEED 1.50 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WHICH IS ABOUT 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AS A RESULT...A LINE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL
PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AS WELL...WHICH MAY SLOW DOWN
THE FRONT/S PROGRESS AS WELL...ALLOWING FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINFALL. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ABOUT A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF
RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FOR SATURDAY. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS AS WELL DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS IN PLACE.
WE WON/T MENTION THUNDER AT THIS TIME...AS INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
LACKING. WITH THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS...IT WILL BE COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY THE EVENING
HOURS...ALLOWING FOR COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION.
WITH MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT...SOME ADDITIONAL CYCLONIC FLOW/LAKE
ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO
FOR SAT NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING...WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH
THE AXIS WEST OF OUR REGION...PUTTING OUR REGION IN THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW PORTION OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS FROM THE EXITING COLD FRONT WILL EXIT SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
RAPIDLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL WINDS OFF
THE GREAT LAKES...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD EXTEND FROM THE LAKES
INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES AS TO ANOTHER UPPER
IMPULSE...BASED MORE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...POSSIBLY TRACKING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THROUGH OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND SOME BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS RETROGRADES
A LITTLE. THERE IS A LOOSE CONSENSUS IN SOME WARMING AND
RETROGRADING OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE DISAGREEMENTS ARE WHETHER WE
GET LITTLE TO NO COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OR BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS...DEPENDING ON THE PRESENCE OR NON PRESENCE OF WELL DEFINED
UPPER DYNAMICS. FOR NOW...INDICATING JUST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...BUT
THE DETAILS HOW MUCH POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TUESDAY WILL GET CLEARER AS
WE GET NEARER TO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...WITH LOWER 60S
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THERE ARE ALSO CONFLICTS IN GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES AS TO WHETHER ANOTHER
UPPER IMPULSE AND THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY.
THE RAPID UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS DIFFICULT FOR LONG RANGE GUIDANCE TO
RESOLVE. SO...JUST INDICATING SHOWERS EXITING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SOME UPPER
50S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SYSTEM IS STILL SLOWLY EXITING BUT CLOUD LAYER AROUND 2500 FEET
STILL LINGERING AS MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED FROM THE COAST
INLAND. THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD IS NOW INTO
CENTRAL MA...SO THE VCSH FOR KPSF SHOULD CONTINUE ONLY THROUGH ABOUT
14Z. CLEARING IS STILL SEEN IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL/WESTERN
NY...BUT AGAIN THE MOIST FLOW FROM THE COAST CIRCULATING AROUND THE
COASTAL SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A SLOW ADVANCE TO THE CLEARING. THE
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 18Z-22Z...THEN VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AFTER THAT THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKY TONIGHT...WITH SOME INTERVALS OF CLOUDS...ADDED SOME MVFR
FOG TO KGFL AND KPSF WHERE CLEARING WOULD PROMOTE THE BEST CHANCES
FOR FOG.
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH A LIGHT N-NE FLOW AT LESS
THAN 6 KT SHIFTING TO E-SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THURSDAY...TRENDING
BACK TO VARIABLE/CALM DURING THE EVENING AND THROUGH THE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ALONG WITH SOME AREAS OF MORNING FOG...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING. THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL
DROP TO 50 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS.
RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH FOG AND DEW
FORMATION AND NEARLY CALM WINDS.
AFTER MORNING FOG BURNS OFF TOMORROW...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO
45 TO 50 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE
5 TO 10 MPH ON FRIDAY. A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. OTHERWISE...DRY
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.
WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION...A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MOST AREAS WILL SEE
BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH AND ONE INCH OF RAINFALL. ASIDE FROM SOME
PUDDLES ON ROADWAYS...THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.
MAINLY DRY...BUT MUCH COOLER....WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. OVERALL...AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS LOOK TO MAINLY HOLD
STEADY OR ONLY SLIGHTLY RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
632 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK FOR SUNSHINE TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND AWAY
FROM THE REGION. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 632 AM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED JUST SOUTHEAST
OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING AWAY...BUT BEFORE IT
DOES...IT IS PULLING MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND PRODUCING
SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT. WITH THESE
SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITHIN THE BROAD
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THEY ARE TRACKING INTO PARTS OF SRN VT...THE
BERKSHIRES...AND LITCHFIELD HILLS THIS MORNING. WHILE SHOWERS HAVE
MAINLY DIMINISHED OVER OUR AREA...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. THE LATEST 08Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS ANY ACTIVITY AFTER
THIS TIME REMAINING WELL EAST OF OUR AREA.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN SHOWERS IS PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS /STRATUS/
AND SOME PATCHES OF FOG. WITH A LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE
TODAY...IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BECOME
MIXED OUT. AS A RESULT...WE CAN EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH CLOUDS EVENTUALLY BREAKING FOR INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUN DURING THE AFTN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE THE CLOUDS
CURRENTLY AREN/T AS THICK...AND MORE SUN CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING.
MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S...WITH THE
WARMEST ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. TEMPS IN THE CAPITAL REGION/HUDSON
VALLEY LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A BRIEF AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP THANKS TO THE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY...WITH THE MOST CLOUDS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WITH 850
HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 TO 11 DEGREES C...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOST OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...ALTHOUGH
WESTERN AREAS WILL START TO SEE SOME SHOWERS BY LATER IN THE
NIGHT. MIN TEMPS FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.
THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DEEPENING TROUGH THAT WILL
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT FOR SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS /ABOUT 3 TO 5 STD ABOVE NORMAL
ACCORDING TO THE 850 HPA V WINDS ON THE 00Z GEFS/ WILL BE IN
PLACE...ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. PWATS WILL EXCEED 1.50 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WHICH IS ABOUT 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AS A RESULT...A LINE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL
PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AS WELL...WHICH MAY SLOW DOWN
THE FRONT/S PROGRESS AS WELL...ALLOWING FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINFALL. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ABOUT A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF
RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FOR SATURDAY. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS AS WELL DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS IN PLACE.
WE WON/T MENTION THUNDER AT THIS TIME...AS INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
LACKING. WITH THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS...IT WILL BE COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY THE EVENING
HOURS...ALLOWING FOR COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION.
WITH MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT...SOME ADDITIONAL CYCLONIC FLOW/LAKE
ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO
FOR SAT NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING...WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH
THE AXIS WEST OF OUR REGION...PUTTING OUR REGION IN THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW PORTION OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS FROM THE EXITING COLD FRONT WILL EXIT SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
RAPIDLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL WINDS OFF
THE GREAT LAKES...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD EXTEND FROM THE LAKES
INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES AS TO ANOTHER UPPER
IMPULSE...BASED MORE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...POSSIBLY TRACKING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THROUGH OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND SOME BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS RETROGRADES
A LITTLE. THERE IS A LOOSE CONSENSUS IN SOME WARMING AND
RETROGRADING OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE DISAGREEMENTS ARE WHETHER WE
GET LITTLE TO NO COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OR BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS...DEPENDING ON THE PRESENCE OR NON PRESENCE OF WELL DEFINED
UPPER DYNAMICS. FOR NOW...INDICATING JUST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...BUT
THE DETAILS HOW MUCH POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TUESDAY WILL GET CLEARER AS
WE GET NEARER TO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...WITH LOWER 60S
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THERE ARE ALSO CONFLICTS IN GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES AS TO WHETHER ANOTHER
UPPER IMPULSE AND THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY.
THE RAPID UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS DIFFICULT FOR LONG RANGE GUIDANCE TO
RESOLVE. SO...JUST INDICATING SHOWERS EXITING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SOME UPPER
50S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL
LEVEL LOW EXITING THE REGION HAVE LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. SOME SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AT KALB AND KPSF WITH CHANCES DECREASING TOWARD
DAYBREAK.
CLOUDS HEIGHTS WILL BE JUST ABOVE 3000 FEET AT KGFL BUT TRENDING
DOWNWARD TO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AND REMAIN MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 18Z.
CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN IFR AND VFR PERIODICALLY AT KALB THROUGH
ABOUT 12Z. CEILINGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AT KPOU AND KPSF SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH ABOUT 20Z-22Z. VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY VFR WITH ANY RAIN BEING VERY LIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY AT KALB AND KGFL AFTER
10Z...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...WHICH IS NOT
TOO FAR WEST OF THE TAF SITES CURRENTLY. SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KPSF AND KPOU...KPSF WITH POSSIBLE
LIGHT RAIN AND KPOU WITH SOME POSSIBLE PARTIAL CLEARING. IT SHOULD
BE MENTIONED THAT CURRENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE AND RADAR SUGGEST ANY
CLEARING WILL TAKE QUITE SOME TIME TO SPREAD EAST...EVEN THOUGH IT
IS INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND CENTRAL/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.
ONCE THE SYSTEM EXITS...CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT ABOVE 3000 FEET AFTER
18Z-22Z AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPSF FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT.
GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY WITH VFR DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING
BUILDS IN.
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH A LIGHT N-NE FLOW AT LESS
THAN 6 KT SHIFTING TO E-SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THURSDAY...TRENDING
BACK TO VARIABLE/CALM DURING THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ALONG WITH SOME AREAS OF MORNING FOG...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING. THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL
DROP TO 50 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS.
RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH FOG AND DEW
FORMATION AND NEARLY CALM WINDS.
AFTER MORNING FOG BURNS OFF TOMORROW...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO
45 TO 50 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE
5 TO 10 MPH ON FRIDAY. A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. OTHERWISE...DRY
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.
WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION...A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MOST AREAS WILL SEE
BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH AND ONE INCH OF RAINFALL. ASIDE FROM SOME
PUDDLES ON ROADWAYS...THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.
MAINLY DRY...BUT MUCH COOLER....WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. OVERALL...AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS LOOK TO MAINLY HOLD
STEADY OR ONLY SLIGHTLY RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1035 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING AS THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
WITH MAINLY LIGHT WNW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP TO 700MB FROM THE MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDING IN
MIAMI WAS SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE TO SETUP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN REFLECTS THIS PATTERN AND
GENERALLY INDICATES THE BEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON SETTING UP AND FOCUSING OVER BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE
COUNTIES. WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH FAIRLY WARM 500MB
TEMPERATURES AND RISING UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOW TODAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM
THE STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL BE LIGHTNING AND 35 TO
45 MPH WIND GUSTS. 85
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 802 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014/
AVIATION...
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THERE IS ISOLATED AREAS WITH LOW
STRATUS AND/OR MIST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE LAKE WITH CURRENT METAR OBS FROM KPBI INDICATING BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. TERMINAL KTMB
MAY HAVE VERY BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITY EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CHALLENGING WIND FORECAST. WEAK WESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION AND FORECAST TO BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY LATER
THIS MORNING. AFTER 18Z THE WEST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM...BUT FOR TERMINALS KTMB AND KOPF WINDS COULD
STAY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY. LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD FAVOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WESTERLY WINDS
FAVORING CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA. ALL EAST
COAST TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS IN THE 18Z TO 21Z TIME FRAME.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014/
.TYPICAL AFTERNOON SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEXT FEW DAYS...
.FIRST COLD FRONT OF FALL SEASON ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT...
DISCUSSION...SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
THROUGH FRIDAY, MAINTAINING A WESTERLY WIND FLOW. THIS WILL FOCUS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AS
AN ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME DRIER
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CONVECTION SCATTERED
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE
TSTORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINS.
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND, SENDING THE FIRST COLD FRONT
OF THE SEASON ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT FORCING WILL BE TO
THE NORTH SO ONLY ORDINARY STORMS ARE ONLY EXPECTED. THE BIG STORY
WILL BE THE DROP IN DEWPOINTS AND A SLIGHT LOWERING OF
TEMPERATURES TO MAKE A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA AFTER THE LONG STEAMY TIMES SINCE MAY. GUIDANCE
TEMPS/POPS WERE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED FROM THIS TIME
YESTERDAY SO NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES ARE NOTED IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL OCCUR SUN-MON, BUT MOISTURE
LOOKS TO RETURN ON A RETURN FLOW BY TUE WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY
AND A RETURN TO SCATTERED TSTORMS THEN. /GREGORIA
MARINE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE BUT WINDS WILL
PICK UP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FIRST COLD FRONT OF THE FALL
SEASON EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. AS
WINDS TURN N THEN NE, SEAS WILL BUILD ESPECIALLY OFF THE PALM
BEACH COAST BUT NWPS CURRENTLY KEEPS SEAS BELOW HAZARDOUS
LEVELS, OR 7 FT. /GREGORIA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 74 89 76 / 40 20 40 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 78 90 78 / 50 20 40 20
MIAMI 91 77 90 78 / 50 20 50 20
NAPLES 90 75 90 76 / 20 10 20 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....57/DG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
945 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
...TURNING NOTICEABLY DRIER AND COOLER THIS WEEKEND WITH UNFAVORABLE
BOATING CONDITIONS...
CURRENT-TODAY...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IS STILL EVIDENT IN THE
SURFACE ANALYSIS WITH EAST WINDS AT 41009 & 41010 WHILE GRAND BAHAMA
HAD WEST WINDS. THERE WAS LITTLE/NO AIR MASS DEFINITION THOUGH AS
ONSHORE FLOW WAS KEEPING DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY.
MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE PENINSULA SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.6
TO 1.8 INCHES. THE CAPE SOUNDING DID HAVE 1.95 BUT THAT WAS NEAR AN
ATLANTIC CONVERGENCE LINE WHERE SOME SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ON
AND OFF. THE TAMPA SOUNDING HAS AN INVERSION TO OVERCOME AROUND
750MB AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE MINUS 6.
THE LOCAL WRF MODEL AND HRRR INDICATE CONVECTION INITIATING INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.
MORNING 0-6KM MEAN WINDS ARE NORTHWEST BUT BOTH MODELS DO NOT SHOW
PUSHBACK TO THE COAST...SO THIS INDICATES THAT THE MODELS ARE NOT
GENERATING VERY DEEP CONVECTION. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
MORNING SOUNDING PARAMETERS AND EXPECT PRECIP TO BE MOSTLY SHOWERS
WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STORMS INLAND. LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
PATCH OF STRATUS/FOG KVRB-KFPR WILL BE DISSIPATING SOON. HIGH
AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AS CUMULUS START FORMING THIS MORNING. EXPECT IFR CHANCES
IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TO BE LIMITED TO THE INTERIOR
TERMINALS AND BE BRIEF IN DURATION.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS WAS
CAUSING A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS EXCEPT FOR
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS IN THE SOUTH. THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW
MUCH CHANGE EXCEPT TO SWING WIND AROUND IN THE SOUTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY. BUOYS INDICATE SEAS 2-3 FEET AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
CHANGE. DOMINANT WIND WAVE PERIODS AROUND 5 SECONDS WILL CAUSE AN
UNCOMFORTABLE CHOP FOR SOME SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE SHINGLE CREEK AT CAMPBELL REMAINS JUST ABOVE ACTION STAGE.
LATEST GAUGE INFORMATION SHOWS THE CREEK HAS LEVELED OFF. ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL COULD STILL RESULT IN FURTHER RISES.
THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR REMAINS SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
RIVER LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO REACH ACTION STAGE AT LAKE HARNEY TODAY
AND ON FRIDAY AT DELAND. IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL SETS UP OVER
OR UPSTREAM FROM THESE AREAS...THERE WILL BE FURTHER AGGRAVATION
OVER THE BASIN.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WEATHER...SHARP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1104 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
317 AM CDT
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS OF THIS COMPLEX FORECAST PERIOD...WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
SPREADING IN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A MASSIVE UPPER TROUGH OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH NUMEROUS WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW
TRIGGERING AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERAL OF THESE WAVES ARE LINED
UP FROM TX/OK TO EASTERN WISCONSIN. AT THE SURFACE...LOOSELY
ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE IS OVER OKLAHOMA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EASTWARD FROM IT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
WARM/MOIST ASCENT IS DRIVING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH AT LEAST ONE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER WAVES.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER WAVE AIDING THE SHOWER/THUNDER
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING WITH CURRENT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL EXIT TO
THE NORTHEAST BY MID MORNING OR SO. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS/THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR
LARGE SCALE PRECIP DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MIDDAY OR EVEN EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH CURRENT CONVECTION ALSO HELPING TO LIMIT THE
INCOMING MOISTURE FLUX. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST
AND BECOME MARGINALLY BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY PUSHING TOWARD WESTERN KS/OK/TX
ADVANCES EASTWARD. IT DOES APPEAR THAT ONE OR SEVERAL MID/UPPER
WAVES WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WITH AT LEAST
ONE CURRENTLY PRODUCING NEW CONVECTION ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THIS MAY
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION LOCALLY FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. ANOTHER POTENTIAL
SOURCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE THE NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THIS AFTERNOON AND BE NORTH OF THE
AREA BY THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE DETAILS FROM
ABOUT MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IS LIMITED BUT WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE IDEA THAT THERE WILL BE A MINIMUM OF ACTIVITY DURING THIS
TIME...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME ACTIVITY AROUND. THE SURFACE LOW
REMAINS ELONGATED AND TRACKS NORTHWARD ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS
FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY EVENING. THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE EAST AS WELL HELPING TO FOCUS NEW
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW. THIS
WILL LEAD TO STEADILY INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
CROSSING THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEEPENS OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. AN
ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BUT THE MAIN
QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH IN THE AREA IT MAY EXTEND.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS A CONCERN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
1.6-1.7 INCHES. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
WITH HIGHER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IF A LINE OF PARTICULARLY
WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION DOES CROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF LESS INTENSE SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL BE A CHALLENGE WITH IT CONDITIONAL ON THE EXTENT OF THE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. BETTER INSTABILITY WOULD LIKELY
NEED TO BE ADVECTED IN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG AS WILL THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE FORCING
SO EVEN WEAK INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER...WITH
GUIDANCE SHOWING AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING BY LATE DAY
WHICH WOULD BE PLENTY TO INCREASE THE SEVERE THREAT. DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT A WELL DEVELOPED
SQUALL LINE COULD SPAWN A FEW SHORT LIVED TORNADOES PROVIDED STRONG
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AND THERE IS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
TURNING. UNFORTUNATELY THERE ARE STILL TOO MANY UNCERTAIN VARIABLES
TO HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO CENTRAL
ONTARIO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT EXITING THE EASTERN CWA.
THE EXIT OF RAIN TO THE EAST MAY LAG THE FRONT THANKS TO THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS STILL CROSSING THE AREA. ANOTHER PUSH OF ENERGY WILL BE
RACING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT SPAWNING
AMPLIFICATION OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
WITH IT. YET ANOTHER WAVES RACES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE NOW VERY
AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH HELPING IT TO CLOSE OFF OVER WISCONSIN
FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH THEN LEADS TO ANOTHER EMBEDDED TROUGH AXIS
PIVOTING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...LEADING TO ADDITIONAL LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING/MIDDAY. THE BIGGER STORY
HOWEVER WILL BE THE PUSH OF COLD AIR BROUGHT IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FRIDAY. H85 TEMPS WILL CRASH TO ABOUT -2C BY FRIDAY EVENING.
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S BY EVENING WITH GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWS
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S WITH FROST DEVELOPMENT UNLIKELY THANKS
TO WINDS AND CLOUDS AS WELL AS SOME SHOWERS. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
ONLY REACH THE LOWER 50S AND SOME AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST MAY BE HELD
INTO THE UPPER 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S AS A WEAK RIDGE AXIS ARRIVES BY SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS MAY STAY STRONG ENOUGH AND CLOUD COVER EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FROST DEVELOPMENT. MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM LATER
SUNDAY BUT CLOUDS AND PRECIP MAY TEMPER WARMING SO AM EXPECTING
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH 60 POSSIBLE FAR SOUTH.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE IT STARTS
TO TRANSITION NORTHEAST AND MUCH LOWER AMPLITUDE FLOW BUILDS IN.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE PASSAGE OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND
THEREFORE PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES WITH MONDAY LOOKING TO BE A PERIOD
OF HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP. MID LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY WARM THOUGH
SOME COOLING AND WARMING WILL BE MODULATED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE
WAVES BUT OVERALL SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE ON A SLOW UPWARD TREND INTO
MID WEEK...WITH UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S POSSIBLE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY PERSISTING OVERNIGHT.
* MVFR AND IFR LIKELY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...LIFR POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT.
* WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH FROPA EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH INCREASING SPEEDS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
RODRIGUEZ/KB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
BULK OF MOST ACTIVITY REMAINING OUTSIDE OF THE TERMINAL AREAS THIS
MORNING...BUT WITH SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING OVERHEAD.
EXPECT CURRENT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH TO REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH AS THIS PRECIP DRIFTS TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE SHOWERS THIS MORNING EXPECT RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TODAY...OUTSIDE OF A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO.
AN ISOLATED AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS THIS MORNING...WHILE A MORE SOLID AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS
SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN IOWA AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS AREA. THE
ISOLATED AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...WHILE THE LOW CLOUDS TO THE WEST REMAINING IN THIS
LOCATION FOR MOST OF TODAY. THE ONLY TERMINAL WHICH WILL LIKELY
OBSERVE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS TODAY WILL BE RFD.
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF BETTER LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT TIMING AND
DURATION BUT AT THIS TIME...A LATER START TIME DOES APPEAR LIKELY
AND HAVE REFLECTED THIS IN THE TAFS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OVERHEAD FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENING BUT WITH INSTABILITY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT...FEEL THAT A TREND TOWARDS MORE SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
ARRIVAL OF THE BETTER LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL MARK THE
ARRIVAL OF ALREADY PRESENT IFR CEILINGS...WITH THESE CEILING
LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIFR AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THIS POSSIBILITY AT
THIS TIME. FROPA SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH WINDS QUICKLY SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND OBSERVING A
CONTINUED INCREASING TREND.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DURATION.
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...LOW MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE OF TIMING.
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR/IFR TONIGHT...LOW MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE OF LIFR.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WIND SHIFT AND SPEEDS WITH FROPA FRIDAY
MORNING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF EXACT TIMING.
RODRIGUEZ/KB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
441 AM CDT
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SPANS THE ATLANTIC COAST AND LOW
PRESSURE IS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE LAKE. THE
SURFACE PATTERN HAS TIGHTENED THIS MORNING AND HAS RESULTED IN
SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEEDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE LAKE WHERE 15 TO 25 KT WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED. THESE CURRENT
SPEEDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH THIS MORNING...WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 10
TO 20 KT BEING OBSERVED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY...AND THEN CONTINUE NORTHEAST TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHILE ALSO
STRENGTHENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VARYING WIND DIRECTION AS
WELL AS AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
BE INCREASING THROUGH THIS PERIOD...IT APPEARS THAT SPEEDS WILL
REALLY RAMP UP LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WEST
GALES DO APPEAR TO BE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...AND SO
ISSUED A GALE WATCH. THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF
THE STRONGEST WINDS BUT WITH THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS POSSIBLY
OBSERVING THESE GALES AS WELL...DID GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A PORTION
OF THE INDIANA NEARSHORE ZONES. AS THE LOW CONTINUES NORTH THROUGH
ONTARIO TO HUDSON BAY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WEST WINDS TO
30 KT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BEFORE DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744-
LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878...4 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1029 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1029 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Short break in the rain occurring over a large part of the
forecast area this morning, however a large area of showers and
thunderstorms was beginning to spread into the far western CWA.
Latest HRRR guidance has this overspreading many areas west of
I-55 into early afternoon, but the model has not been handling the
narrow axis along the I-70 corridor very well. Storms expected to
increase across the eastern CWA during the afternoon. Main cold
front is still well off to the west, and should start to move into
the western CWA during the evening hours. The rain trends should
rapidly decrease behind the front after its passage overnight.
Main question for this afternoon/evening will be with severe
weather potential. Right now only areas east of I-55 are seeing
scattered breaks in the clouds. MUCAPE values around 500 J/kg or
so across the south half of the forecast area, per SPC
mesoanalysis. RAP soundings from Springfield do bring CAPE`s up to
around 1500 J/kg during the late afternoon as the precipitation
becomes more concentrated west of the I-55 corridor. Rather moist
soundings do favor heavy rain, with precipitable water around 1.8
inches which is near the 99th percentile for early October. Any
severe weather that occurs will be more of a wind threat in our
area due to the moist profile.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
06z/1am surface analysis shows warm front extending from central
Missouri eastward into the Ohio River Valley. Several clusters of
convection have been tracking along/north of the front overnight,
aided by a 30-35kt 850mb jet streak oriented from the Southern
Plains northeastward across the boundary. This activity will
continue for the next few hours, but should begin to wane by
mid-morning as front lifts further northward. Based on current
radar trends and 00z model data, will carry likely PoPs
along/northwest of I-70 through midday, with only chance PoPs
further south. Meanwhile, low pressure developing over Oklahoma
will track northeastward into southern Wisconsin by this evening.
Line of thunderstorms is expected to develop along/ahead of
associated cold front, with most model solutions keeping this
convection just west of the KILX CWA until late afternoon/early
evening. Have increased PoPs to categorical across the Illinois
River Valley this afternoon in case storms get going faster than
anticipated, but think bulk of activity will hold off until
evening. Aside from the rain chances today, it will be another
very warm day with highs ranging from the middle 70s far northwest
around Galesburg to the middle 80s along/south of I-70.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Latest Day 1 convective outlook from SPC places all of
central/southeast Illinois under a slight risk for severe weather
tonight. With a very warm/humid air mass surging northward ahead of
an approaching cold front, resulting CAPE values will likely
exceed 1500J/kg later today. In addition, low-level wind shear
will be increasing with 0-6km bulk shear values generally in the
30-40kt range. These favorable parameters combined with strong
convergence along the cold front will lead to the development of a
line of thunderstorms this evening. Models generally develop the
storms along the Mississippi River by late afternoon, then push
them eastward to the I-55 corridor by mid-evening and into
east-central Illinois shortly after midnight. Main severe weather
threat will be strong/damaging winds, although highest
probabilities for widespread severe will likely remain further
southwest from the St. Louis area southwestward to Texas. With
precipitable water values climbing over 1.75, high rainfall rates
will be likely with any storms that develop. Localized flash
flooding may develop within the strongest storms: however, recent
rainfall amounts have not been great enough over a wide enough
area to warrant a Flash Flood Watch at this time.
Front will push into Indiana by Friday morning, bringing an end to
the greatest rain chances. Still some model discrepancy concerning
timing of frontal departure, with the ECMWF being the slowest. Have
therefore hung on to chance PoPs early Friday morning along/east of
I-57. A secondary upper wave currently evident on water vapor
imagery over Alberta will dive southeastward Friday
afternoon/evening, amplifying the mean trough over the Great
Lakes/Midwest. Synoptic lift and steep mid-level lapse rates
associated with this feature will be enough to warrant a slight
chance for showers, mainly during the afternoon. Main weather story
on Friday will be the windy and sharply cooler conditions.
Tightening pressure gradient between departing front and approaching
Canadian high pressure will lead to strong W/NW winds gusting to
between 30 and 35mph. Temperatures will struggle to rise much at
all from morning lows, with readings remaining in the 60s.
With 850mb temps progged to drop into the -3 to -5C range, low
temperatures by Saturday morning will fall into the middle
30s...representing a nearly 50 degree temp drop from expected high
temps today! Due to a continued brisk northwesterly breeze, am
not expecting any frost to develop Friday night. Heart of cold
air mass will be in place across Illinois on Saturday, with highs
struggling to reach the middle to upper 50s and overnight lows
once again dropping into the middle to upper 30s. With much
lighter winds expected, a few patches of frost will be possible by
Sunday morning, especially if skies can remain clear ahead of the
next approaching short-wave trough.
After that, the Midwest will be dominated by northwesterly
upper-level flow through Tuesday before trough retreats into Canada
by the middle and end of next week. This will mean continued below
normal temps in the 60s through Tuesday, followed by a warming trend
and a return to the 70s by Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
The timing of thunderstorms over the next 24 hours will be the
main concern, and the associated IFR/LIFR conditions during
storms. Based on current radar trends, there should be a break in
the showers and storms at all terminals this morning. SPI will
see the return of some storms the soonest as a band of storms
moves out of NE Missouri and reaches SPI as soon as 16z. That
convection could reach to DEC as well, and have indicated that in
the TAFS. PIA, BMI and CMI could remain dry for a longer period,
possibly well into the afternoon or early evening. CMI looks to
be closer to the current storm track, so may see a few showers
pass close by to the south during the day.
The main threat for strong to severe storms looks to be this
evening for PIA, SPI and BMI. A 3-hour tempo for heavy rain and
storms with IFR conditions was included in the TAFs for the
current best-estimate on timing of the line of storms. We
estimated 00z for PIA and 04z for CMI, but those hours may need
adjustment as the cold frontal timing becomes more apparent.
After the cold front passes, winds will begin to shift to the SW
then W, with some gusts possible by morning. Also, MVFR clouds are
likely to persist through 12z/7am Friday.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
602 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
LOOKING AT WIND OBS THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
COLD FRONT WHICH JUST BARELY MADE IT INTO WRN MN WEDNESDAY EVENING
HAS FINALLY STARTED TO MOVE. STARTING TO SEE MORE LIGHT NW WIND OBS
IN MN AND AT 330 AM...THE WIND SHIFT LOOKS TO BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
I-35. THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY THOUGH HAS NOT FOLLOWED THE WIND
SHIFT...AS IT WAS STILL BACK ALONG A RWF TO BRAINERD LINE AT 330 AM.
LIGHT WINDS AND A JUICED BOUNDARY LAYER THANKS TO RAINS WEDNESDAY
HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME RATHER UGLY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
EAST OF THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY. WITH WINDS REALLY NOT PICKING UP MUCH
TODAY...COMBINED WITH UPPER CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE
STRATUS/FOG...NOT EXPECTING THE LOW STRATUS TO GO VERY FAR TODAY.
GIVEN THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND THE EXPECTATION OF ANOTHER RAINY
AFTERNOON...CUT BACK ON HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...KEEPING THEM
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S...THOUGH DEPENDING ON WHERE THE MAIN PRECIP
BAND SETS UP TODAY...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A STRIP ACROSS THE CENTER
OF THE CWA THAT REMAINS IN THE 50S.
AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...THERE IS ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP ON ITS WAY.
CURRENTLY ITS DOWN ACROSS NE NEB AND SE SODAK. THE PRECIP THAT WILL
BE COMING THIS DIRECTION WILL BE ROOTED ON A STRONG BAND OF FGEN IN
THE H7-H6 LAYER. THE 02.00 GFS AND NAM AGREE ON THIS BAND...BUT
DIFFERED SIGNIFICANTLY ON WHERE IT WOULD GO. THE GFS HAS THE CENTER
OF THE BAND GOING UP A RWF/STC LINE...WHILE THE NAM WAS WE OVER
ALONG AND EVEN A LITTLE EAST OF AN AEL/EAU LINE...THOUGH THE 02.06
NAM DID SHIFT THE BAND WEST. WHEN LOOKING AT THE
RAP/HRRR/HOPWRF/NMM/ARW...THEY ALL AGREE NICELY WITH WHAT THE GFS
HAS...SO FAVORED THE POP/QPF FORECAST TODAY TOWARD A GFS/CAM BLEND.
OTHER CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF
THUNDER...AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF THE
MPX CWA.
TONIGHT...PRECIP WILL QUICKLY CLEAR OUT OF WRN WI BETWEEN 2Z AND 6Z.
BEHIND THIS PRECIP...WE WILL START TO SEE SOME STRONGER PRESSURE
RISES MOVE INTO WRN MN. THIS WILL START BRINGING IN SOME BETTER THAN
10 KT WINDS OUT INTO WRN MN LATE IN THE NIGHT. THE OTHER ADVANTAGE
TO THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS IS THAT THIS WILL
FINALLY HELP FLUSH THE LOW STRATUS OUT OF THE MPX AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
THE FOCUS ON FRIDAY REMAINS ON THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW AND NEAR
WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN WESTERN MN AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WE ARE
BECOMING A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE IN HOLDING OFF ON ISSUING A WIND
ADVISORY GIVEN THE SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN THE FORECAST WINDS
SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. YESTERDAY`S NAM WAS
SHOWING MORE 44-49KTS NEAR THE TOP OF THE CHANNEL AND THIS
MORNING`S RUN...ALONG WITH THE GFS ARE GENERALLY 38-43KTS. WE WILL
STILL BE EFFICIENT IN BRING THESE WINDS TO THE GROUND DUE TO THE
GOOD MIXING.
THE SLOWER TREND WITH THIS INCOMING SYSTEM ALSO MEANS MOST OF
FRIDAY COULD BE PRECIP FREE AS WE END UP IN THE DRY SLOT...WITH
THE TRAILING WEAK TROUGH AND UPPER LOW NOT SWINGING THROUGH UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING MIGHT ACTUALLY SUPPORT A FEW MORE SNOW
FLAKES MIXING IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURE PROFILE COLLAPSE AND THE FREEZING LEVEL DROPS TO NEAR
1000FT WHILE THE LIGHT PRECIP IS STILL ONGOING IN THE EASTERN HALF
OF MN AND IN WESTERN WI. THE SURFACE TEMP AND GROUND TEMP ARE TOO
WARM FOR EVEN MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...BUT NONETHELESS WE`RE ABOUT A
COUPLE WEEKS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE FROM WHEN WE TYPICALLY SEE OUR
FIRST FLAKES. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM ALL HAVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MN...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DOUBLE DIGIT
/INCHES/ SNOWFALL IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND ONTARIO.
CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW AND COOL FALL AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD ALSO BE MAINLY DRY. THE ECMWF
IS STILL MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING BACK WARMER TEMPS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT JETTISONS A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE
APPALACHIANS AND LIFTS THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE CONUS
FASTER THAN THE GFS. THE PATTERN IS EVOLVING SLOWER AND TEMPS
EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN WHAT WAS FORECAST
YESTERDAY AND THE DAY BEFORE. IT`S GOING TO BE TOUGH TO SHAKE THE
40S AND 50S UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY...MAYBE WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
ONLY CHANGE TO CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING WAS TO IMPROVE
VSBYS...LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY IN PLACE IS HERE TO STAY FOR SOME
TIME WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE NEXT
WAVE TO THE SW HELPING TO LIMIT MIXING. DID NOT CHANGE MUCH WITH
THE TAF IN TERMS OF TIMING FOR ARRIVAL OF RAIN...OTHER THAN TO
SPEED IT UP A BIT. WENT ABOUT AN HOUR FASTER THAN THE HRRR AS IT
HAS BEEN INITIALIZING A BIT SLOW WITH THE PRECIP THIS MORNING.
CIGS IN THAT RAIN RIGHT NOW ARE MAINLY VFR...SO TRIED TO SHOW SOME
MORE CIGS INTO THE HIGHER MVFR CATEGORY AS THE RAIN COMES IN.
WILL SEE CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR QUICKLY BEHIND THE RAIN...WITH THE
THREAT FOR MVFR CIGS RETURNING TO THE NW AFTER 9Z. WILL START
PICKING UP GUSTS AFTER 6Z AT RWF/AXN...WITH MSP PICKING UP ON THE
GUSTS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.
KMSP...MSP IS OUT OF THE WOODS FOR DENSE FG...BUT LIFR/IFR CIGS
THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z WILL KEEP THINGS RUNNING A BIT SLOWER.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE
FIELD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE VIS DROP BACK DOWN TO
MVFR AS THE HEAVIEST RAIN MOVES THROUGH. DECIDED TO MOVE THE CIGS
ABOVE 017 WHEN THE HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN AS WELL BASED ON THE FACT
THAT OBS IN THE RAIN SHIELD NOW HAVE CIGS RANGING FROM 020-050. BY
THE END OF THE TAF...WILL LIKELY BE SEEING NW WINDS GUSTING TO
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI NIGHT...MAINLY MVFR WITH CHC -SHRA. WINDS WNW 15G25 KTS.
SAT...CHC MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS WNW 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ042>045-
049>053-057>063-065>070-074>078-082>085-091>093.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ014-015-
023>026.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
552 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2014
...12Z Aviation Forecast Update...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 222 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
There will be active weather during the morning commute for some
across the Missouri Ozarks and southeast Kansas. Convection has
been redeveloping across northeast Oklahoma and southeast Kansas
moving slowly to the northeast. The HRRR has been handling this
well and will see this convection continue mainly along and north
of I-44 through mid morning. There will be a risk for stronger
convection to develop this morning with large hail and damaging
wind gusts the main threat along with frequent lightning and heavy
rainfall.
The short term models are in good agreement with the advancing
cold front moving into southeast Kansas by mid afternoon.
Initially discreet convection will develop along and just ahead of
the front between 18-20z. This convection will quickly merge into
a squall line or line segments as the line advances rather quickly
eastward. Followed the HRRR closely for the afternoon convection.
All modes of severe weather will be possible with damaging winds
being the main threat...followed by large hail...and the risk of a
couple isolated tornadoes. The line of storms will be near the
Joplin area by 4 pm and Springfield area by 6 pm. The line will be
clearing the eastern Missouri Ozarks before midnight this evening.
Will leave the ongoing Flash Flood Watch as is with the heaviest
storm total rainfall expected in the watch area where totals will
be between 2 to 5 inches. Areas southeast of I-44 will see totals
between 1 to 2 inches.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Friday will be a blustery and much cooler day with passing clouds
and perhaps some sprinkles or spotty light shower or two. The
latest guidance shows a piece of upper level energy moving across
the area especially the central Missouri area with some clouds and
sprinkles possible. Winds will be gusty up to 25 mph and
temperatures struggling to get above 60 degrees.
Skies will clear Friday evening for Friday night football around
the Missouri Ozarks but it will be chilly. The big question will
be the frost potential. Guidance is a degree or two colder again
with lows down in the middle to upper 30s likely. Wouldn`t be
surprise a few colder spots that are protected get down in the
lower 30s. Winds will possibly remain up around 5 mph or so. Will
put back in the mention of patchy frost into the forecast
especially valleys and wind protected areas. The frost potential
will need to be looked at again over the next day for any possible
headlines by Friday. People with sensitive outdoor plants will
need to pay attention to the forecast for Friday night.
Seasonably cool temperatures will stay around for the weekend and
mostly dry conditions and a northwest flow. Guidance shows another
weak mid level disturbance moving through on Monday with a few
more clouds and possible light showers. The overall flow will
flatten by the middle of next week with southerly winds returning.
A moderation in temperatures will return with above normal
temperatures by middle next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 521 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
The main aviation concerns for pilots flying in and out of the
Missouri Ozarks region will be strong to severe convection
developing today through this evening. On going convection this
morning will affect mainly JLN and later SGF. There will be a
small break in convection around midday with additional strong to
severe convection developing by mid to late afternoon.
Have the line of convection moving from west to east affecting JLN
earliest and BBG during the early evening hours. Convection will
taper to VCSH by the evening. There will be ceiling and
visibility drops to low end MVFR if not IFR possible under the
heaviest convection. Gusty and variable winds can be expected
under the strongest convection as well. Winds will generally be
out of ths south today switching to northwest behind a cold front
tonight. Overall trend for tonight will be a drop in ceilings to
low end MVFR flirting with IFR possibly for SGF and BBG.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>081-088-089.
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Griffin
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
628 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
SEVERAL TIMING ISSUES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM.
INITIAL FOCUS WILL BE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTING TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA AT 07Z FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A STEADY PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. LATEST RAP HAS THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z. ALSO MAY NEED A
MENTION OF FOG FOR A SHORT TIME THIS MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA
BETWEEN HARLAN AND RED OAK WHERE VSBY IS REPORTED NEAR ZERO. WILL
MONITOR UNTIL ISSUANCE FOR ANY CHANGE AS CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO
SPREAD INTO THAT AREA.
A NEW FEATURE THAT HAS SHOWN UP IN TONIGHTS MODELS IS A SECONDARY
BAND OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO NEBRASKA TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE AND MAINLY FOR WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA AS INDICATED BY 00Z MODELS.
OTHERWISE WEATHER TURNS WINDY AND COLD BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH GOOD POTENTIAL FOR FROST OR FREEZE ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE MENTION
OF THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AND WAIT UNTIL LATER FORECAST FOR
HEADLINES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD UNTIL TOWARDS THE
END OF THE TIME FRAME WHEN ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. POPS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR NOW DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN POSITION AND TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
IFR CIGS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA TAF SITES THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO AFFECT SITES FROM
TIME TO TIME...REDUCING VSBYS TO BELOW 3SM. NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. AFTER 21Z
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AND CLOUDS SCATTER...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED MID CLOUDS FORECAST BY 00Z. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH TAF SITES LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
745 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2014
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY... AND CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVER
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM THURSDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING HOLDS OVER NC THIS MORNING. FOG THUS FAR
HAS BEEN A BIT LIGHTER AND MORE PATCHY THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...
PERHAPS DUE IN PART TO AREAS OF SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS DRIFTING OVER THE
AREA... ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL PERTURBATION PASSING ESE
THROUGH THE REGION JUST EAST OF THE INCOMING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGE. ADDITIONAL MID CLOUDS OVER NE NC AND TO THE NE ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW JUST OFF NEW ENGLAND. WE MAY SEE A FEW
SPRINKLES OVER NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING... BUT THE MOISTURE APPEARS TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY APPRECIABLE
PRECIP. THE VERY LIGHT WIND FIELD IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN MAKE FOR A SLOW DISSOLUTION OF THIS MORNING`S FOG... HOWEVER
IF IT REMAINS MORE LIGHT AND PATCHY THROUGH DAYBREAK (IN CONTRAST TO
THE HRRR WHICH DEPICTS WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH SUNRISE)...
WE WOULD THEN SEE SOME SUNSHINE EARLIER THAN YESTERDAY.
REGARDLESS... FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT (JUST ABOVE 700 MB) FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. MANY OF THE CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAM/GFS AND SREF PROBABILITIES
SUGGEST THAT A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS WILL POP UP THIS AFTERNOON...
PROMPTED BY HEATING WHICH SHOULD YIELD PERHAPS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE... ALMOST ALL BELOW 700 MB. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ORIENTED
ALONG THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL ZONE MOVING NE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL BRING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM MID-LATE
AFTERNOON STRETCHING THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS DEWPOINTS CREEP UPWARD A BIT OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM
FRONTAL ZONE... EXPECT YET ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT FOG... BUT THIS
FOG SHOULD STAY LIGHT GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF STRATOCUMULUS TO CURB
NOCTURNAL COOLING. HIGHS FROM 78 NE TO 84 SW... WITH THICKNESSES
RUNNING NEARLY 10 M ABOVE NORMAL. MILD LOWS TONIGHT OF 60-64. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...
LATEST MODEL OUTPUT ARE IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF
POTENT MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ITS ATTENDING
LARGE SCALE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NOAM... AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. WE GET FULLY INTO THE WARM SECTOR
DURING FRI MORNING... AND THE FRONT ITSELF SHOULD GET INTO WRN NC BY
MID EVENING... AND THEN SWEEP EASTWARD OVERNIGHT... REACHING THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY DAYBREAK. MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT... WITH PW VALUES CLIMBING QUICKLY FROM AROUND 1 INCH
TO AT OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE KINEMATICS
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE DECENT... WITH A 35-40 KT SWRLY LOW LEVEL JET
ALIGNED JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR
INCREASING TO 30 (EAST) TO 50 (EAST) KTS FRI NIGHT. BUT THE
PROJECTED MUCAPE VALUES ARE MINOR... PEAKING AT JUST 250-500 J/KG...
MADE WORSE BY THE LOSS OF HEATING WITH AN EVENING/NIGHT PASSAGE.
DYNAMICS ARE BETTER BUT SIMILARLY MUTED... GIVEN THAT THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE TRACKING ENE OVER NC IS RATHER WEAK... AND THE BULK OF THE
HEIGHT FALLS ARE HELD TO OUR NW OVER THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY
CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL VORTEX. BUT GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELD AND
UPPER DIVERGENCE MAX SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE AREA... STILL EXPECT
GOOD SHOWER/ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE. WILL BRING IN LOW CHANCE POPS
WEST BY MID AFTERNOON... SPREADING EASTWARD WITH HIGH POPS TOPPING
OUT AT 60-80% IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT... BEFORE STARTING TO PUSH
OUT OF THE CWA TOWARD MORNING. OVERALL QPF LOOKS MEAGER WITH THIS
EVENT... LIKELY TOTALLING A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THE LOW POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY WILL GREATLY CUT THE SEVERE THREAT... ALTHOUGH A FEW
BOWING SEGMENTS MAY BRING DOWN SOME OF THE 30-40 KTS OF WIND FROM
ALOFT... EVEN WITH JUST SHOWERS. HIGHS NEAR 80 NW (WHERE CLOUDS
SHOULD BE FIRST TO SPREAD IN DURING THE AFTERNOON) TO 85 SE. LOWS 57
NW TO 66 SE. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NC EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
AHEAD OF IT...EXITING THE AREA BY NOON SATURDAY. ONCE THE RAIN ENDS
SATURDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE RAINFALL CHANCES
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...MOVING NE OVER NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A RELATIVELY COOL
AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S SATURDAY AND MID 60S EVERYWHERE SUNDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR...LOW
40S NW TO UPPER 40S SE. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE CHILLY...MID 40S
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK...
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S MONDAY INCREASING TO MID TO UPPER 70S BY
WEDNESDAY. LOWS 50-55 DEGREES MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASING INTO THE 55-
60 DEGREE RANGE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM THURSDAY...
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD FOG WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND
STRATUS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS AT CENTRAL NC TAF
SITES HAVE VARIED AMONG MVFR AND IFR/LIFR OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...
WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AT RWI. THESE ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL SITES BETWEEN 13Z AND
15Z... AND TO VFR BY 17Z. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW AT CENTRAL NC
TAF SITES... ALTHOUGH PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THIS
MORNING COULD BRING AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR TWO TO RDU/RWI. AND
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED VERY LIGHT (VFR) SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LARGELY CALM THROUGH
MID MORNING... THEN REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUT PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SE. PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOG MAY FORM ONCE
AGAIN LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD (AFTER 06Z FRI)... AND THIS
SHOULD HOLD THROUGH DAYBREAK FRI MORNING.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z EARLY FRI MORNING... EXPECT IMPROVEMENT OF VSBYS
TO VFR DURING MID-LATE FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING INCREASING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FRI EVENING
THROUGH FRI NIGHT... EXITING THE EASTERN TAFS EARLY SAT MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT AFTERNOON... LASTING THROUGH
MONDAY... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1034 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
MORNING STORMS HAVE BEHAVED ABOUT AS EXPECTED...WITH SPORADIC HAIL
AND EVEN A DAMAGING WIND REPORT. EXCEPT IN A COUPLE OF STORMS...THE
OVERALL INTENSITY TREND HAS BEEN DOWN SINCE SUNRISE. HRRR HANDLING
THIS QUITE WELL.
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
THIS TIME...EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO ABOUT OKC AND
INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY CONTINUES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...ESPECIALLY IN
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THAT HAVE
NOT SEEN ANY STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS CURRENTLY RELATIVELY LOW
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER SYSTEM JUST EAST OF
THE ROCKIES MOVES CLOSER. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD LEAD
TO A LINEAR STORM MODE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS. 0-3KM SHEAR VECTORS ARE PERPENDICULAR TO THE
EXPECTED SQUALL LINE MOVEMENT...BUT THE MAGNITUDES ARE RELATIVELY
WEAK...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR LEADING EDGE
TORNADOES. THE THREAT WILL DEFINITELY NOT BE ZERO THOUGH.
THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS SHOULD CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY AN HOUR
OR TWO AFTER SUNSET...IF NOT BY SUNSET IF THE HRRR TIMING
VERIFIES. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO SEE
THE LINE OF STORMS BEFORE SUNSET...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
NOT AFFECT THE LINES INTENSITY. HAVE INCREASED THE CONDITIONAL
SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
PRODUCTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UPDATED THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON TO KEEP UP WITH THE RADAR TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
PRETTY COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST TODAY...WITH LOW CIGS AND
TSRA TO CONTEND WITH. THE MORNING STORMS ARE LIKELY DONE AFFECT
THE TAF SITES...SO THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE AFTERNOON. USED THE
LATEST HRRR DATA COMBINED WITH PREV FORECAST TO HONE IN ON THE
SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW OF BEST OPPORTUNITY AT EACH TAF SITE. TSRA
SHOULD CLEAR ALL OF THE TERMINALS BY ABOUT 03Z THIS EVENING. AS
FOR THE LOW CLOUDS...THERE IS SOME MVFR STRATUS AT KFSM AND THIS
COULD MOVE INTO KMLC LATER. THE RUC/NAM MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST
LOW CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT
INITIALLY...AND THEN GRADUALLY CLEAR THINGS OUT OVER EASTERN OK
TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST.
LACY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND WITHIN STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET AXIS THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH A THREAT OF MARGINAL WIND GUSTS AND HAIL BUT
SEVERE PROBABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LOW WITH THE INITIAL ACTIVITY.
APPEARS NOW THAT THIS SHOULD MOVE OFF FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER LARGE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT
CURRENTLY LIES FROM TX PANHANDLE TO NE KANSAS. UPPER WAVE
EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE
SHEAR AS WELL...LEADING TO RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT LATER TODAY. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
AND FAVOR LINEAR STORM MODE...HOWEVER SOME INITIAL ALBEIT SHORT-
LIVED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT SEEMS PROBABLE. THUS ALL MODES OF
SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH STORMS ENDING ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS BEFORE 06Z. DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER GREAT LAKES REGION FRI/SAT WILL
HELP BRING A SECOND STRONGER SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS...
ESPECIALLY BY SAT MORNING WHEN MANY AREAS WILL SEE UPPER 30S AND
LOW 40S. NICE WEEKEND WILL FOLLOW WITH A STRONG WARM UP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS QUICKLY RETURN FROM THE SOUTH.
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH MONDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
VERY LIMITED AT THAT TIME AND HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY MID WEEK WITH MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
WHAT WE SAW THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
703 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...
&&
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
PRETTY COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST TODAY...WITH LOW CIGS AND
TSRA TO CONTEND WITH. THE MORNING STORMS ARE LIKELY DONE AFFECT
THE TAF SITES...SO THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE AFTERNOON. USED THE
LATEST HRRR DATA COMBINED WITH PREV FORECAST TO HONE IN ON THE
SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW OF BEST OPPORTUNITY AT EACH TAF SITE. TSRA
SHOULD CLEAR ALL OF THE TERMINALS BY ABOUT 03Z THIS EVENING. AS
FOR THE LOW CLOUDS...THERE IS SOME MVFR STRATUS AT KFSM AND THIS
COULD MOVE INTO KMLC LATER. THE RUC/NAM MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST
LOW CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT
INITIALLY...AND THEN GRADUALLY CLEAR THINGS OUT OVER EASTERN OK
TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST.
LACY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND WITHIN STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET AXIS THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH A THREAT OF MARGINAL WIND GUSTS AND HAIL BUT
SEVERE PROBABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LOW WITH THE INITIAL ACTIVITY.
APPEARS NOW THAT THIS SHOULD MOVE OFF FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER LARGE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT
CURRENTLY LIES FROM TX PANHANDLE TO NE KANSAS. UPPER WAVE
EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE
SHEAR AS WELL...LEADING TO RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT LATER TODAY. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
AND FAVOR LINEAR STORM MODE...HOWEVER SOME INITIAL ALBEIT SHORT-
LIVED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT SEEMS PROBABLE. THUS ALL MODES OF
SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH STORMS ENDING ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS BEFORE 06Z. DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER GREAT LAKES REGION FRI/SAT WILL
HELP BRING A SECOND STRONGER SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS...
ESPECIALLY BY SAT MORNING WHEN MANY AREAS WILL SEE UPPER 30S AND
LOW 40S. NICE WEEKEND WILL FOLLOW WITH A STRONG WARM UP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS QUICKLY RETURN FROM THE SOUTH.
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH MONDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
VERY LIMITED AT THAT TIME AND HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY MID WEEK WITH MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
WHAT WE SAW THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 86 52 69 42 / 80 20 0 0
FSM 89 57 74 44 / 90 80 0 0
MLC 88 54 75 43 / 90 20 0 0
BVO 83 48 67 37 / 80 20 0 0
FYV 85 48 67 35 / 90 80 0 0
BYV 85 52 66 39 / 80 90 0 0
MKO 87 52 69 39 / 90 40 0 0
MIO 84 50 65 38 / 90 70 0 0
F10 86 52 71 41 / 100 20 0 0
HHW 90 56 77 44 / 80 60 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
958 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.UPDATE...
IT IS A WARM...MUGGY EARLY OCTOBER DAY THROUGHOUT THE REGION. A
CLUSTER OF WEAK THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI INTO WEST TENNESSEE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
PULL A WARM...MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY HOLDING TEMPERATURES BELOW
90 DEGREES. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING OF A LINE OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED AT THIS POINT.
JPM3
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/
UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/
A TRICKY SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM KANSAS CITY MISSOURI TO
NEAR AMARILLO TEXAS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. DEWPOINTS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S BUT SHOULD JUMP INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS ARE RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
MODELS INDICATE THE CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN
6AM-9AM. LATEST HRRR SHOWS SHOWERS SHOULD START POPPING ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI BY 8 AM. BY 11AM-1PM...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
GFS..NAM...AND ECMWF SEEM TO FALL IN LINE IN WHAT THE HRRR IS
SHOWING THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
FROM MID-MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY HINDER ANY THUNDERSTORMS FROM
BECOMING STRONG OR SEVERE AT LEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
ALL THE CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...HAVE KNOCKED DOWN
HIGHS TODAY A TAD. DON/T REALLY SEE ANY LOCATION HITTING 90 TODAY.
HIGHS SHOULD STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
SQUALL LINE IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND LATEST HRRR SHOWS IT STRETCHING FROM TULSA
OKLAHOMA TO NEAR ABILENE TEXAS AROUND 2 PM. THE LINE WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THE LINE WILL LIKELY OUTRACE THE FRONT BY THE EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE MIDSOUTH...IT MAY ENCOUNTER AN
ATMOSPHERE AT LEAST SLIGHT WORKED OVER FROM CONVECTION THAT WILL
OCCUR TODAY AND NOT AS UNSTABLE AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT A FEW DAYS
AGO DUE TO CLOUD COVER. CAPE VALUES MAY GET TO 1500 J/KG WHICH IS
STILL DECENT BUT NOT LIKE 2200 J/KG OR GREATER THAT THE NAM HAS
BEEN SHOWING. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
TIMING. LINE MAY NOT GET INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS UNTIL CLOSER TO
9-10 PM. THUS INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING FROM LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. STILL EXPECT EASTERN ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
TO SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS BUT REALLY EXPECT
LINE TO START WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES EAST ESPECIALLY ONCE IT
PUSHES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MAIN THREAT FROM THE LINE
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
SINCE TIMING IS SLOWER HAVE HAD TO UPDATE POPS FOR FRIDAY TO KEEP
THEM IN LONGER. NORTH MISSISSIPPI COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THESE BECAME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH FOR THE WEEKEND AND
WILL BRING BEAUTIFUL AUTUMN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP BACK INTO
THE 70S ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF INDICATES FRONT WILL COME THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. GFS HAS TIMING OF MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT POPS AS IS WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DON/T REALLY
EXPECT ANY COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BACK
INTO THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY.
KRM
AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD
INCLUDE OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 02/13Z AND 02Z/17Z ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AFTER 02Z/17Z CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR BUT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS
AFTER 03/03Z AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THUNDERSTORMS
WINDS S-SW INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 22 KTS AT
KJBR. WINDS AFTER 03/00Z S 7-10 KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. TIMING IS QUESTIONABLE BUT JBR
MAY SHIFT 03/08Z MEM 03/09Z...AND MKL 03/10Z.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
625 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/
A TRICKY SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM KANSAS CITY MISSOURI TO
NEAR AMARILLO TEXAS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. DEWPOINTS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S BUT SHOULD JUMP INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS ARE RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
MODELS INDICATE THE CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN
6AM-9AM. LATEST HRRR SHOWS SHOWERS SHOULD START POPPING ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI BY 8 AM. BY 11AM-1PM...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
GFS..NAM...AND ECMWF SEEM TO FALL IN LINE IN WHAT THE HRRR IS
SHOWING THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
FROM MID-MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY HINDER ANY THUNDERSTORMS FROM
BECOMING STRONG OR SEVERE AT LEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
ALL THE CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...HAVE KNOCKED DOWN
HIGHS TODAY A TAD. DON/T REALLY SEE ANY LOCATION HITTING 90 TODAY.
HIGHS SHOULD STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
SQUALL LINE IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND LATEST HRRR SHOWS IT STRETCHING FROM TULSA
OKLAHOMA TO NEAR ABILENE TEXAS AROUND 2 PM. THE LINE WILL MOVE
PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE LINE WILL LIKELY OUTRACE THE FRONT BY THE
EVENING HOURS. EXPECT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE MIDSOUTH...IT
MAY ENCOUNTER AN ATMOSPHERE AT LEAST SLIGHT WORKED OVER FROM
CONVECTION THAT WILL OCCUR TODAY AND NOT AS UNSTABLE AS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT A FEW DAYS AGO DUE TO CLOUD COVER. CAPE VALUES MAY GET TO
1500 J/KG WHICH IS STILL DECENT BUT NOT LIKE 2200 J/KG OR GREATER
THAT THE NAM HAS BEEN SHOWING. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH TIMING. LINE MAY NOT GET INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS UNTIL
CLOSER TO 9-10 PM. THUS INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING FROM LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. STILL EXPECT EASTERN ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL TO SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS BUT REALLY
EXPECT LINE TO START WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES EAST ESPECIALLY ONCE
IT PUSHES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MAIN THREAT FROM THE LINE
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
SINCE TIMING IS SLOWER HAVE HAD TO UPDATE POPS FOR FRIDAY TO KEEP
THEM IN LONGER. NORTH MISSISSIPPI COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THESE BECAME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH FOR THE WEEKEND AND
WILL BRING BEAUTIFUL AUTUMN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP BACK INTO
THE 70S ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF INDICATES FRONT WILL COME THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. GFS HAS TIMING OF MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT POPS AS IS WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DON/T REALLY
EXPECT ANY COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BACK
INTO THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD
INCLUDE OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 02/13Z AND 02Z/17Z ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AFTER 02Z/17Z CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR BUT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS
AFTER 03/03Z AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THUNDERSTORMS
WINDS S-SW INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 22 KTS AT
KJBR. WINDS AFTER 03/00Z S 7-10 KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. TIMING IS QUESTIONABLE BUT JBR
MAY SHIFT 03/08Z MEM 03/09Z...AND MKL 03/10Z.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1028 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.AVIATION...
HRRR AND RAP ARE NOW SHOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION BREAKING OUT
AROUND NOON IN METROPLEX AREA. COVERAGE WILL BE LOW WITH THESE
DISCRETE CELLS BUT HAVE ADDED VCTS AFTER 17Z. AS I WRITE THIS WE
HAVE ONE CELL IN DENTON COUNTY THAT NOW HAS CLOUD-CLOUD
LIGHTNING...AND ONE IN HOOD COUNTY THAT VERTICAL INTEGRATED ICE IS
SHOWING COMING CLOSE TO HAVING LIGHTNING. BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA
STILL AHEAD OF THE FRONT LASTING FROM 20Z-22Z. 84
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO
RAPIDLY MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY REACHING THE REGION...AS AIRCRAFT DATA
INDICATES LIFTING AND DYNAMIC COOLING OF THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE
PROFILE. WHERE ENOUGH MOISTURE EXISTS ALOFT...ACROSS THE NW ZONES
AND OKLAHOMA...THIS LIFT IS ALLOWING ELEVATED PARCELS TO REACH THEIR
LFC AND CONVECT. THIS SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS OR STORMS.
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW ENTERING THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND IS FORECAST
TO REACH THE NW ZONES BY MIDDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS AN HOUR OR TWO
FASTER WITH THE FRONT...BUT OVERALL THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST THINKING OF THE LAST FEW DAYS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL ENSURE A WARM MORNING AND
ONCE THE LOW STRATUS SCATTERS OUT BY MIDDAY...SUNSHINE WILL BOOST
TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S OVER THE REGION. THESE HOT TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH DYNAMIC COOLING
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CAPE REACHING 2000-2500 J/KG. WHILE A FAIRLY STRONG
INVERSION NEAR 850MB WILL CAP OFF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EARLY IN THE
DAY...THE COMBINATION OF DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL
ALL WORK TO ERODE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION OVER THE AREA.
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER
THE NW ZONES AROUND 1 PM AS THE CAP BEGINS TO BREAK. CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS IT MARCHES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES. WE
EXPECT FROPA AROUND 3 PM NEAR GAINESVILLE...5 PM NEAR DFW...AND 7PM
NEAR WACO. WHEN THE FRONT CROSSES THE I-35 CORRIDOR A SQUALL LINE
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE...WHICH MEANS THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW GAPS
IN THE LINE AT THIS TIME. A FULLY DEVELOPED AND MATURE SQUALL LINE
WILL EXIST AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS HIGHEST IN
THIS REGION. THE CAP WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES...AND ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE MORE ISOLATED
THERE. WHERE CONVECTION IS MORE ISOLATED...SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE
IS FAVORED...WHICH MEANS THERE IS AN ENHANCED LARGE HAIL THREAT IN
ADDITION TO A WIND THREAT. WHILE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES DO NOT
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL ROTATION...SURFACE BASED SUPERCELLS
CAN STILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN THE RIGHT MESOSCALE
CONDITIONS...BUT THIS CANNOT BE FORECAST RELIABLY AT THIS TIME RANGE.
THE FRONT AND LINE OF STORMS WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR THE REGION FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL NOT
REALLY INCREASE UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SURGE
ARRIVES. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER AND GENERALLY TOP OUT NEAR 80
IN THE NORTH AND THE MID 80S SOUTH. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN
RIGHT OVER THE CWA BY SUNRISE SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL GO CALM. WITH
DEWPOINTS BY THIS TIME IN THE 30S AND 40S...LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
SHOULD REACH THE 40S FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH LOW 50S
FOR THE DFW AREA AND THE SOUTHEAST CWA. SATURDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND
PLEASANT WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT NEAR 80...BUT WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
THE SOUTH BY SATURDAY EVENING.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND A MODERATION OF TEMPS BACK ABOVE NORMAL WILL
OCCUR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS AN OUTLIER
SOLUTION OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ON MONDAY WHICH BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT AND A CHANCE OF RAIN
TO THE AREA. THE GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS ENERGY
AND THEREFORE SHOW DRY WEATHER WITH HIGH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 90S
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S. WILL KEEP FORECAST THE DRY BUT AS A
NOD TO THE ECMWF POTENTIAL WILL NUDGE HIGH TEMPS DOWNWARD INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR NEXT WEEK INSTEAD OF THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY BOLD
FORECAST OF LOWER 90S.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 93 59 82 50 80 / 70 20 0 0 0
WACO, TX 95 58 84 49 81 / 50 40 5 0 0
PARIS, TX 91 57 78 45 76 / 80 60 0 0 0
DENTON, TX 92 54 81 43 80 / 60 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 92 56 81 43 78 / 80 30 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 93 60 82 51 80 / 70 30 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 94 59 82 48 79 / 70 50 0 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 94 61 83 49 79 / 60 60 5 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 95 60 85 50 81 / 30 50 5 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 92 54 82 44 81 / 30 10 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
955 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.UPDATE...DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR SOUTHEAST MN AND BUFFALO
COUNTY IN WISCONSIN AS CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO IMPROVE THIS
MORNING. SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION CONTINUING
THROUGH NOON AND WITH TROUGH AXIS RIGHT THROUGH THE
REGION...LITTLE MIXING EXPECTED TO HELP BREAK THINGS UP.
FOR NORTHEAST IOWA...OBSERVATIONS AND CALLS TO PARTNER GROUPS
INDICATE THAT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SUCH THAT THE ADVISORY CAN
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
IMMEDIATE CONCERNS INCLUDE FOG THIS MORNING AND INCOMING RAIN.
SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING HAS A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING N-S
ACROSS MN/IA. WEAKLY CONVERGENT AND VERY DAMP LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
HAS LED TO SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHEAST MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. AS A RESULT...A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM.
OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A DEEPENING
LONG WAVE BASICALLY ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS WAS TAKING PLACE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE.
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS/MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION. OVER THE LOCAL AR X FORECAST AREA...BESIDES THE
FOG...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO THE
LOWER 60S.
FOR TODAY...WILL BE WATCHING THE LOW OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE LIFT
NORTHEAST IN MO BY NOON AND NORTHERN IL BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AS
THIS OCCURS...850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALL COMBINE FORCES TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA... BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE 60S
TO THE LOWER 70S.
FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
WI. THIS PUTS ARX FORECAST AREA UNDER FAIRLY STRONG 850-500MB
FRONTOGENETIC BAND IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
DRIVE WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY RANGING FROM
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH. THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...PLAN ON RAIN TAPERING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW PULLS INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 40S
TO AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PULLING INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. PLAN ON
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35
MPH. PV-ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING MID-LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO
PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
COLDER TEMPERATURES/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS/RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALL
COMBINE FOR A PRETTY RAW DAY.
AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW ROTATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...LOOKING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO RESULT. AS TEMPERATURES
COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S LATER IN THE NIGHT...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN AT TIMES. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER IN COLD CYCLONIC FLOW. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER RAW AUTUMN DAY ON
TAP AS HIGHS ONLY TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S. CONTINUED COLD
AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA.
LONG WAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LOOKS TO MAKE PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW FILLS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO CANADA WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S/FEW LOWER 60S TUESDAY...AND IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
A LOT OF CHALLENGES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
FOR VSBYS...SUB 1/2SM FG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS A PORTION OF
MN/IA...BUT THERE HAS BEEN SOME FLUCTUATION IN THE VSBYS AS
EVIDENCED BY OBSERVATIONS. FEEL IT WILL BE MORE 1/4SM THAN NOT AT
KRST FOR THE EARLY MORNING...SO WILL STICK WITH THAT. GUIDANCE AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING...ALTHOUGH
KRST MAY ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AT BEST. KLSE HAS AVOIDED THE LOWER
VSBYS...ALTHOUGH OBSERVATIONS SURROUNDING THE SITE HAVE AT LEAST
LOWERED TO MVFR. CONFIDENCE SHAKY WHEN/IF KLSE VSBYS WILL DROP. WILL
LEAN ON THE TRENDS WHICH HAVE KEPT THEM MOSTLY P6SM.
-SHRA WILL MOVE IN LATER TODAY...WITH MOST MESO MODELS SUGGESTING
CLOSER TO 20Z. THEY ALSO WOULD TAKE THE PCPN EAST IN THE 04-06Z
WINDOW. WILL USE THIS TIMING.
A LOT OF CIGS IN THE LIFR/IFR CATEGORIES EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
EXPECT ONLY SMALL DIURNAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY. DON/T SEE VFR
RIGHT NOW...THOUGH COULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST RH FIELDS POINT TO A DECREASE IN THE SATURATION FOR
A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...WITH MORE MOISTURE ROLLING BACK IN FRIDAY.
SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HOURS OF SCT CLOUDS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON THAT FOR NOW. WILL INSTEAD BUMP CIGS UP...ALTHOUGH KEEP KRST AT
MVFR FOR THE MOMENT.
A LOT OF COMPLEXITY TO THE FORECAST INTO TONIGHT. ANTICIPATE
UPDATES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR WIZ032.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-094-
095.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZT
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
630 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
IMMEDIATE CONCERNS INCLUDE FOG THIS MORNING AND INCOMING RAIN.
SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING HAS A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING N-S
ACROSS MN/IA. WEAKLY CONVERGENT AND VERY DAMP LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
HAS LED TO SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHEAST MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. AS A RESULT...A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM.
OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A DEEPENING
LONG WAVE BASICALLY ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS WAS TAKING PLACE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE.
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS/MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION. OVER THE LOCAL AR X FORECAST AREA...BESIDES THE
FOG...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO THE
LOWER 60S.
FOR TODAY...WILL BE WATCHING THE LOW OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE LIFT
NORTHEAST IN MO BY NOON AND NORTHERN IL BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AS
THIS OCCURS...850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALL COMBINE FORCES TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA... BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE 60S
TO THE LOWER 70S.
FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
WI. THIS PUTS ARX FORECAST AREA UNDER FAIRLY STRONG 850-500MB
FRONTOGENETIC BAND IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
DRIVE WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY RANGING FROM
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH. THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...PLAN ON RAIN TAPERING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW PULLS INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 40S
TO AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PULLING INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. PLAN ON
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35
MPH. PV-ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING MID-LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO
PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
COLDER TEMPERATURES/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS/RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALL
COMBINE FOR A PRETTY RAW DAY.
AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW ROTATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...LOOKING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO RESULT. AS TEMPERATURES
COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S LATER IN THE NIGHT...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN AT TIMES. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER IN COLD CYCLONIC FLOW. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER RAW AUTUMN DAY ON
TAP AS HIGHS ONLY TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S. CONTINUED COLD
AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA.
LONG WAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LOOKS TO MAKE PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW FILLS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO CANADA WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S/FEW LOWER 60S TUESDAY...AND IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
A LOT OF CHALLENGES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
FOR VSBYS...SUB 1/2SM FG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS A PORTION OF
MN/IA...BUT THERE HAS BEEN SOME FLUCTUATION IN THE VSBYS AS
EVIDENCED BY OBSERVATIONS. FEEL IT WILL BE MORE 1/4SM THAN NOT AT
KRST FOR THE EARLY MORNING...SO WILL STICK WITH THAT. GUIDANCE AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING...ALTHOUGH
KRST MAY ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AT BEST. KLSE HAS AVOIDED THE LOWER
VSBYS...ALTHOUGH OBSERVATIONS SURROUNDING THE SITE HAVE AT LEAST
LOWERED TO MVFR. CONFIDENCE SHAKY WHEN/IF KLSE VSBYS WILL DROP. WILL
LEAN ON THE TRENDS WHICH HAVE KEPT THEM MOSTLY P6SM.
-SHRA WILL MOVE IN LATER TODAY...WITH MOST MESO MODELS SUGGESTING
CLOSER TO 20Z. THEY ALSO WOULD TAKE THE PCPN EAST IN THE 04-06Z
WINDOW. WILL USE THIS TIMING.
A LOT OF CIGS IN THE LIFR/IFR CATEGORIES EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
EXPECT ONLY SMALL DIURNAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY. DON/T SEE VFR
RIGHT NOW...THOUGH COULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST RH FIELDS POINT TO A DECREASE IN THE SATURATION FOR
A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...WITH MORE MOISTURE ROLLING BACK IN FRIDAY.
SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HOURS OF SCT CLOUDS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON THAT FOR NOW. WILL INSTEAD BUMP CIGS UP...ALTHOUGH KEEP KRST AT
MVFR FOR THE MOMENT.
A LOT OF COMPLEXITY TO THE FORECAST INTO TONIGHT. ANTICIPATE
UPDATES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FOR WIZ032.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094-095.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FOR IAZ008-009-018-
019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
129 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BRIEFLY IN ITS WAKE THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE AT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST ADJUSTED TO CURRENT OBSERVATION AND TRENDS. RAIN CONFINED TO
THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND DRIFTING WEST SOUTHWEST. ELSEWHERE
IT`S DRY WITH SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE. THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND REMOVED POPS ELSEWHERE.
LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THE IDEA THAT PCPN DISSIPATES BY LATE
MORNING. THUS HAVE RAPIDLY LOWERED POPS FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND.
OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY PIVOTING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST. ASSOCIATED VORT MAX ALMOST STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH THE 00Z MODELS SUGGESTING IT PUSHING TO THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING...THEN PUSHING OFFSHORE TO THE EAST AS THE LOW SLIPS
TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NE FLOW WILL KEEP A FAIRLY MOIST
LOWER LEVEL IN PLACE BUT GENERALLY THINKING THE LOSS OF FORCING
ALOFT WILL MINIMIZE THE PCPN CHANCES.
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HIGH TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AS WEAK WAA WOULD
SUGGEST TEMPS COULD PUSH NEAR NORMAL. HOWEVER...CLOUDY SKIES AND
PERSISTENT NE FLOW COULD KEEP TEMPS ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER SIDE.
SIDED MORE WITH THE MAV GUIDANCE TO REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING PCPN BY THIS EVENING SHOULD BE OFFSHORE SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND WITH DRY WX THEN ON TAP THROUGH FRIDAY. A SLIVER OF
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA TONIGHT/FRIDAY
BEFORE RETREATING ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN AS WELL
DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SO
SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES FOR A SHORT PERIOD LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN STREAMING IN AHEAD OF THE
LOW. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN WITH THE HIGH AS WELL...NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE FORM OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
HAVE MORE OF A HANDLE ON TEMPS FOR TONIGHT/TOMORROW...USING
GENERALLY A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE. TEMPS TONIGHT EXPECTED
TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON FRIDAY AND WAA...SHOULD SEE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALL NWP GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT WITH A COLD FROPA ON
SATURDAY. PCPN MOVES IN FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING AND EXITS IN
THE AFTN WITH CLEARING QUICKLY DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY EVENING.
HAVE CUT PREVIOUS FORECAST QPF IN COORDINATION WITH RIVER FORECAST
CENTERS. EXPECTING AROUND 1/2 INCH WITH 3/4 INCH UP IN THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY. NO HYDRO ISSUES EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CLOUDS START INCREASING LATE
MONDAY WITH WAA. OVER-RUNNING PATTERN CONTINUES ON TUES WITH CHC
POPS FOR LGT RA. WEAK AND DIFFUSE COLD FROPA PASSAGE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. HAVE MADE IT DRY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TIMING OF COLD FROPA.
LOWERED TEMPS AND MADE FOR NON-DIURNAL PATTERN ON SATURDAY WITH THE
PCPN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...BUT WE QUICKLY RETURN TO NORMAL
ON MONDAY AND THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
NO HAZARDS FORESEEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF CAPE COD WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.
MVFR CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO VFR AFTER 19Z FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. VFR CONDS THEREAFTER WITH N-NE FLOW 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS
VEER TO THE E AND POSSIBLY SE OVER CITY TERMINALS THIS EVENING
BEFORE BACKING TO THE NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SPEEDS BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AND WIND SHIFT
TO THE E COULD BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AND WIND SHIFT
TO THE ESE COULD BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AND WIND SHIFT
TO THE ESE COULD BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR UNTIL
20Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS MAY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR UNTIL
20Z.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR COULD BE OFF BY
+/- AN HOUR OR TWO.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRI THROUGH TUE...
.FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE LATE AT THE NYC METRO AND LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS.
.SAT...RAIN WITH IFR CONDS AND SE WINDS 15-20G25KT FOLLOWED BY VFR
CONDS AND W WIND G20KT LATE.
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS G25KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. W WINDS G20KT.
.MON-TUE...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
MINIMAL SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS LESS THE
GREAT SOUTH BAY...NY HARBOR AND THE WESTERN SOUND AS NE FLOW
INCREASES BETWEEN THE LOW OFFSHORE AND THE HIGH DIGGING DOWN FROM
THE NORTH. GUSTS BETWEEN 23 TO 28 KT EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
TODAY...THEN DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
WITH HIGH BUILDING FURTHER OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILD TODAY WITH
THE STRENGTHENING FLOW...WITH 5-9 FT POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
OCNL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT FOR THE BAYS AND LONG ISLAND SOUND. THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
NOT ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS TIME OVER THOSE WATERS. STILL
EXPECTING GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS ABOVE 5 FT ON THE OCEAN...AND
IN FACT EXPECTING THE 5 FT SEAS TO CONTINUE SO EXTENDED THE SCA
OVER THE OCEAN FOR FRIDAY.
ON THE OCEAN...SCA CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED THRU NEXT WED...WITH
PERHAPS A BRIEF RESPITE FOR PORTIONS OF MON. ELSEWHERE...25KT
WINDS POSSIBLE SAT-SUN BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A CDFNT. OTHERWISE
THEY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI EVENING. EXPECTING
AROUND 1/2 INCH WITH 3/4 UP IN THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
340.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/SEARS/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...TONGUE
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/TONGUE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
.AVIATION...
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE
EXCEPTION FOR TERMINAL KTMB...THE FORECAST STILL INCLUDES AN
ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE STARTING IN 19-20Z TIME FRAME FOR MOST
EASTERN TERMINALS BUT NEED TO EMPHASIZE THE UNCERTAINTY. THE
WESTERLY FLOW WILL STILL FAVOR INTERIOR PENINSULA AND ATLANTIC
COASTAL ZONE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ALL EASTERN TERMINALS
ASSIGNED VCTS IN THE 19-20Z TIME FRAME AND BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AT
00Z WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014/
UPDATE...
NO MAJOR UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING AS THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
WITH MAINLY LIGHT WNW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP TO 700MB FROM THE MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDING IN
MIAMI WAS SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE TO SETUP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN REFLECTS THIS PATTERN AND
GENERALLY INDICATES THE BEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON SETTING UP AND FOCUSING OVER BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE
COUNTIES. WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH FAIRLY WARM 500MB
TEMPERATURES AND RISING UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOW TODAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM
THE STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL BE LIGHTNING AND 35 TO
45 MPH WIND GUSTS. 85
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 802 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014/
AVIATION...
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THERE IS ISOLATED AREAS WITH LOW
STRATUS AND/OR MIST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE LAKE WITH CURRENT METAR OBS FROM KPBI INDICATING BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. TERMINAL KTMB
MAY HAVE VERY BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITY EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CHALLENGING WIND FORECAST. WEAK WESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION AND FORECAST TO BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY LATER
THIS MORNING. AFTER 18Z THE WEST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM...BUT FOR TERMINALS KTMB AND KOPF WINDS COULD
STAY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY. LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD FAVOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WESTERLY WINDS
FAVORING CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA. ALL EAST
COAST TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS IN THE 18Z TO 21Z TIME FRAME.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014/
TYPICAL AFTERNOON SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEXT FEW DAYS...
FIRST COLD FRONT OF FALL SEASON ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT...
DISCUSSION...SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
THROUGH FRIDAY, MAINTAINING A WESTERLY WIND FLOW. THIS WILL FOCUS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AS
AN ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME DRIER
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CONVECTION SCATTERED
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE
TSTORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINS.
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND, SENDING THE FIRST COLD FRONT
OF THE SEASON ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT FORCING WILL BE TO
THE NORTH SO ONLY ORDINARY STORMS ARE ONLY EXPECTED. THE BIG STORY
WILL BE THE DROP IN DEWPOINTS AND A SLIGHT LOWERING OF
TEMPERATURES TO MAKE A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA AFTER THE LONG STEAMY TIMES SINCE MAY. GUIDANCE
TEMPS/POPS WERE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED FROM THIS TIME
YESTERDAY SO NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES ARE NOTED IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL OCCUR SUN-MON, BUT MOISTURE
LOOKS TO RETURN ON A RETURN FLOW BY TUE WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY
AND A RETURN TO SCATTERED TSTORMS THEN. /GREGORIA
MARINE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE BUT WINDS WILL
PICK UP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FIRST COLD FRONT OF THE FALL
SEASON EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. AS
WINDS TURN N THEN NE, SEAS WILL BUILD ESPECIALLY OFF THE PALM
BEACH COAST BUT NWPS CURRENTLY KEEPS SEAS BELOW HAZARDOUS
LEVELS, OR 7 FT. /GREGORIA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 74 89 76 90 / 20 40 20 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 90 78 90 / 20 40 20 50
MIAMI 77 90 78 90 / 20 50 20 50
NAPLES 75 90 76 89 / 10 20 20 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1242 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2014
.Short Term...
Did a quick update to the current zone forecast mainly to expand
the slight chance pops a little further to the east mostly over
inland sections generally west of the Tallahassee and
Apalachicola fl. Latest 12z runs from both the HRRR and Nam show
a little better coverage in the these areas this afternoon and
early this evening then previous expected. Current temps look
close.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Friday]...Expect mostly VFR to MVFR conditions for
all terminal sites through 03.06z followed by MVFR to IFR cigs and
visibilities for TLH, VLD, DHN, and ABY through about 03.13z with
mainly MVFR cigs for ECP through 03.13z. Better low to mid clouds
along with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
develop by early Fri possible leading to MVFR to IFR conditions
in and around the heavier precip for all terminal sites especially
during the afternoon and evening hours. Easterly winds at 5 to 8
knots will shift southeast then south through 03/00z becoming
south to southwest around 10 knots with higher gusts through
03.18z.
&&
.Marine...
Made little to no changes to the previous forecast. A light east
to southeast wind today will shift mostly south to southwest and
gradually build tonight and on Fri ahead of a cold front
approaching from the northwest late Fri night through Sat morning.
Expect higher winds and seas in and around scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms beginning later tonight continuing
through fri night ahead and along of the front. Expect Exercise
Caution to possible Small Craft Conditions ahead and behind the
front Fri night and on Sat.
&&
.Prev Discussion [251 AM EDT]...
.Near Term [Through Today]...
An upper level shortwave trough over the four corners region is
deepening the upper level trough over the western CONUS, with weak
ridging still in place aloft over the Mississippi valley. At the
surface, high pressure is still in place over the eastern CONUS, but
will continue to slide eastward through the period as a developing
front over the Plains begins to trek eastward. Today will be dry,
with only a slight (20%) chance for showers in extreme western
portions of our area. Highs will be quite warm for October- in
the upper 80s to around 90.
.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
The ridge of high pressure behind the cold front will quickly
build into the region on Saturday night and Sunday, and remain
centered in our vicinity through Monday. While there will be
significant cool air advection, the exact position of the ridge
during the overnight hours will be critical for radiational
cooling for both Sunday and Monday morning. At this time, the
model guidance is continuing to trend cooler, with lows on Sunday
expected to be in the middle to upper 40s over much of the
interior, with upper 40s to lower 50s fcst for Monday morning.
High temps will gradually moderate through the period, ranging
from the middle to upper 70s on Sunday, to the lower to middle 80s
on Wednesday. Rain chances will be very slim through the entire
period, with just a slight chance of a shower on Monday night and
Tuesday as an upper level disturbance moves through from the NW.
.Fire Weather...
Relative humidities will dip into the mid to upper 20s this weekend
west of a line from Apalachicola to Fitzgerald in the wake of a cold
front. At this time, it looks like Alabama will reach its relative
humidity duration and 20-ft wind criteria and likely its KBDI
values as well on Saturday. The Florida Panhandle and western Big
Bend counties appear to be more borderline, with most of the
Panhandle reaching duration criteria and much of both areas
reaching wind criteria, but the ERC values are more uncertain as
they will depend on how much rainfall we will accumulate. In
Georgia, relative humidities are expected to remain above 25
percent, preventing red flag criteria from being reached there.
Relative humidity will be low for long durations Sunday as well,
but winds will be lower, preventing red flag conditions in
Alabama. Depending on the ERC values, Florida may be borderline
once again Sunday.
.Hydrology...
Although some of the stronger storms on Friday could produce locally
heavy rainfall in excess of 2", most areas should receive average
totals of 1" or less due to the fast moving nature of the
approaching cold front. This amount of rainfall will have little
impact on our area rivers and streams.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 90 70 88 64 80 / 10 10 60 60 10
Panama City 86 75 86 64 79 / 10 20 70 50 0
Dothan 89 70 84 56 74 / 10 20 70 40 0
Albany 89 68 87 59 76 / 10 10 70 50 0
Valdosta 88 67 87 64 77 / 10 10 60 60 20
Cross City 88 68 87 70 82 / 10 20 40 50 30
Apalachicola 85 74 85 67 80 / 10 10 60 60 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...EE
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...EE
MARINE...EE
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...GOULD/WOOL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
258 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
226 PM CDT
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS EVENING WILL BE ON POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLY IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CWFA THIS EVENING. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT THE
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK...WITH HIGHS THIS AFTN STRUGGLING TO WARM
BEYOND 70 TO THE MID 70S SOUTH OF A PONTIAC TO VALPO LINE. VERY
MOIST AIRMASS HAS PUMPED DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW/MID 60S THIS AFTN.
THE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO GET GOING THIS AFTN ACROSS
THE BULK OF THE AREA...LARGELY DUE TO THE THICK SOLAR SHIELDING. AS
THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHWEST IL THIS
EVE...THIS SHOULD HELP WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION. HI-RES GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING A LINE SEGMENT...HOWEVER TRYING
TO PIN-DOWN WHERE THIS LINE DEVELOPS IS THE LARGEST CHALLENGE.
EITHER WAY...EXPECT A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTH
TOWARDS CHICAGO EARLY THIS EVE. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE...A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD EASILY
PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE GREATEST SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF GIBSON CITY TO VALPO LINE...SO ANY STRONGER
STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THAT AREA COULD SEE STRONG ASCENT AND
POSSIBLY A ROTATING UPDRAFT.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHUD QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE EAST AS THE SFC LOW
LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...AND WINDS SHIFT WEST. 850MB THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER WILL
LIKELY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFT DAYBREAK FRI. LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN MILD...IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
STRONG PRESSURE RISES ARE POISED TO ARRIVE FRI AS THE PUNCH OF MUCH
COOLER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST
AT SUNRISE...OR SHORTLY AFTER. BY EARLY AFTN EXPECT TEMPS TO BEGIN
FALLING A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND MID
50S IN THE SOUTHEAST. 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ARRIVING OVERHEAD
MIDDAY FRI...WITH A PERIOD OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARRIVING MIDDAY.
WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING NORTHWEST AND WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINING
THE GUSTY WINDS SHUD PERSIST THRU FRI NGT/SAT MORNING. CURRENTLY
EXPECT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO ALSO PERSIST THRU SAT...HOWEVER COULD
SEE DRY AIR ARRIVING SAT MORNING AND PERHAPS RESULT IN A DRY DAY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWFA WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO MOVE BEYOND THE UPR 40S IN A FEW PLACES SAT...PERHAPS
REACHING 50 SOUTH OF I-80. YES FOR HIGHS...WHICH IS APPROXIMATELY
15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH WIND WILL LINGER SAT NIGHT TO
PREVENT FROST FORMATION...SO HAVE HELD THIS OUT OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST. BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN DIP INTO THE MID/UPR 30S.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIME/NORTH ATLANTIC...AS THE
ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN THIS FEATURE THRU THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED. THIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE PROLONGED TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...AND CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR. CLOSER TO LATER IN THE
WEEK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STRENGTH OF THE BLOCK WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN...HOWEVER SOME ELEMENTS OF TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE
WILL CONTINUE. PERIODIC SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL
CANADA AND BRING SOME LGT PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED...BUT NOT EXPECTING
AT THIS TIME ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AFTER 22 TO 23 UTC
THROUGH AROUND 04 TO 05 UTC THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
RAIN LIKELY PERSISTING OVERNIGHT.
* IFR TO POSSIBLY LIFR CIGS LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
* WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST FOLLOWING FROPA EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH INCREASING SPEEDS DURING THE DAY.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY EXPECTED THE IMPACT THE TERMINALS BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
PLENTY OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE AREA
OUT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND
MISSOURI. THIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE MVFR CIGS AROUND 2,000 FT
AGL. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MISSOURI AND INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AFTER
21-22 UTC. IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE THROUGH MID TO LATE THIS EVENING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AT TIMES. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN AND IFR
TO LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT THIS EVENING.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD SHIFT OVER THE TERMINALS AROUND
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST. CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING...BUT GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH WITH WIND SPEED/DURATION.
* MEDIUM-HIGH WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MEDIUM ON TIMING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH WITH IFR CIGS TONIGHT...LOW-MEDIUM WITH LIFR.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
1249 PM CDT
MAIN MARINE FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF
WESTERLY GALES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN
BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND TO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY FRIDAY
MORNING. IN THE PROCESS...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. A COMBINATION OF MUCH COOLER AIR AND THE TIGHTENING OF THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEEPENING LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING A
PERIOD OF 35 KT GALES DEVELOPING BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MAINTAIN THE COOL ADVECTION ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH WINDS SLOWLY EASING TO 25-30 KT SATURDAY NIGHT. DEEP LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LAKES ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SOME WEAKENING
OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
LAKES AS ANOTHER WEAKER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS LOOKS TO
KEEP WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT/ABOVE 20 KT INTO SUNDAY.
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
OVER THE ILLINOIS NEAR SHORE ZONES...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FARTHER EAST ALONG THE INDIANA SHORE.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744-
LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878...4 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
246 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Two concerns with this part of the forecast are the severe weather
and flash flood potential.
Early afternoon radar imagery showing an increase in showers and
thunderstorms along and east of I-57. Areas southeast of I-70 have
had some breaks in the cloud cover, which has allowed CAPE`s to rise
to over 2000 J/kg. While the late morning severe weather outlook
covers the entire CWA, it is looking like areas south of I-72 will
be the main concern. Additional line of storms moving through south
central Missouri will be entering our forecast area very late
afternoon or early evening per the HRRR model. The high-res models
are also showing some convection along the front itself, which will
be entering the western CWA toward midnight and crossing the CWA
overnight. Forecast soundings are rather moist through 10kft, so
think that damaging winds and intense lightning will be more of a
concern than large hail.
In regards to the flood threat, the overnight rainfall deposited
from 2.5 to 4 inches along the southwest edge of the CWA as far east
as Taylorville, with more isolated streaks of 2+ inches near
Mattoon. Precipitable water values expected to be around 1.8 to 1.9
inches, which is about 3 standard deviations above normal for early
October. Another couple inches potentially may occur through
tonight, especially across the southwest CWA. Will leave the flash
flood watch in its current configuration.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
By Friday morning, the front will be through the area and any pcpn
will be in the form of showers and should only be in the eastern
parts of the CWA. So, early Friday pops will just be high chance and
then decrease during the day. However, with the upper level trough
still west of the area, any clearing behind the front will allow
cold air clouds and scattered showers to develop and spread across
the area for Friday afternoon. Will have slight chance pops in the
forecast for this type of pcpn. Once the trough rotates through, the
upper level cold low pressure area will drop into the Grt Lks and
bring continued daytime/diurnal clouds in the area for Sat and Sun.
Any pcpn associated with this will be very light, primarily be over
northeast IL, and not worth the mention at this time.
Temps will become cooler the end of the week and into the weekend,
after the front moves through. 850mb temps forecast to be around -2
to -4 for the weekend, so coldest temps look to be Fri night through
Sat night. Would not be surprised to see some frost in some areas in
the northwest Sat night, if clouds can clear out and winds become
lighter.
Cyclonic flow will remain over the area into the beginning of next
week, but not quite as deep as it is for this weekend. That being
said, the models do forecast another frontal system to move into the
area Sunday night and remain in the area through Monday night. So, a
chance of pcpn will continue over the area through that time period.
Past Monday night, any pcpn chances will be small, in the 20pct
range. This will only be seen in the grids, with nothing mentioned
in the worded forecast. So, unsettled pattern looks to take hold for
most of the week.
Temps through the extended will remain on the cool side, but as the
pattern becomes more zonal, there should be a slight warming trend
for the later part of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Initial line of convection will be moving into KDEC shortly and
KCMI toward 18Z or so, with TEMPO poeriods of IFR visibilities
from heavy rain. Remainder of the TAF sites will be seeing a
steady rain for a couple hours, then a break before the next round
of convection currently in central Missouri moves northeast. The
rain and storms will end with the passage of a cold front, which
should be passing through KPIA/KSPI toward 06Z and the remainder
of the TAF sites through 10Z. Cloud cover ahead and behind the
front will be MVFR around 1500-2000 feet, although there may be a
1-3 hour window early Friday morning where the clouds scatter out
for a time.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR ILZ040-047-049>052.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1249 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
317 AM CDT
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS OF THIS COMPLEX FORECAST PERIOD...WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
SPREADING IN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A MASSIVE UPPER TROUGH OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH NUMEROUS WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW
TRIGGERING AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERAL OF THESE WAVES ARE LINED
UP FROM TX/OK TO EASTERN WISCONSIN. AT THE SURFACE...LOOSELY
ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE IS OVER OKLAHOMA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EASTWARD FROM IT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
WARM/MOIST ASCENT IS DRIVING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH AT LEAST ONE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER WAVES.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER WAVE AIDING THE SHOWER/THUNDER
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING WITH CURRENT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL EXIT TO
THE NORTHEAST BY MID MORNING OR SO. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS/THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR
LARGE SCALE PRECIP DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MIDDAY OR EVEN EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH CURRENT CONVECTION ALSO HELPING TO LIMIT THE
INCOMING MOISTURE FLUX. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST
AND BECOME MARGINALLY BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY PUSHING TOWARD WESTERN KS/OK/TX
ADVANCES EASTWARD. IT DOES APPEAR THAT ONE OR SEVERAL MID/UPPER
WAVES WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WITH AT LEAST
ONE CURRENTLY PRODUCING NEW CONVECTION ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THIS MAY
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION LOCALLY FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. ANOTHER POTENTIAL
SOURCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE THE NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THIS AFTERNOON AND BE NORTH OF THE
AREA BY THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE DETAILS FROM
ABOUT MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IS LIMITED BUT WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE IDEA THAT THERE WILL BE A MINIMUM OF ACTIVITY DURING THIS
TIME...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME ACTIVITY AROUND. THE SURFACE LOW
REMAINS ELONGATED AND TRACKS NORTHWARD ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS
FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY EVENING. THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE EAST AS WELL HELPING TO FOCUS NEW
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW. THIS
WILL LEAD TO STEADILY INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
CROSSING THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEEPENS OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. AN
ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BUT THE MAIN
QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH IN THE AREA IT MAY EXTEND.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS A CONCERN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
1.6-1.7 INCHES. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
WITH HIGHER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IF A LINE OF PARTICULARLY
WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION DOES CROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF LESS INTENSE SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL BE A CHALLENGE WITH IT CONDITIONAL ON THE EXTENT OF THE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. BETTER INSTABILITY WOULD LIKELY
NEED TO BE ADVECTED IN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG AS WILL THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE FORCING
SO EVEN WEAK INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER...WITH
GUIDANCE SHOWING AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING BY LATE DAY
WHICH WOULD BE PLENTY TO INCREASE THE SEVERE THREAT. DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT A WELL DEVELOPED
SQUALL LINE COULD SPAWN A FEW SHORT LIVED TORNADOES PROVIDED STRONG
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AND THERE IS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
TURNING. UNFORTUNATELY THERE ARE STILL TOO MANY UNCERTAIN VARIABLES
TO HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO CENTRAL
ONTARIO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT EXITING THE EASTERN CWA.
THE EXIT OF RAIN TO THE EAST MAY LAG THE FRONT THANKS TO THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS STILL CROSSING THE AREA. ANOTHER PUSH OF ENERGY WILL BE
RACING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT SPAWNING
AMPLIFICATION OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
WITH IT. YET ANOTHER WAVES RACES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE NOW VERY
AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH HELPING IT TO CLOSE OFF OVER WISCONSIN
FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH THEN LEADS TO ANOTHER EMBEDDED TROUGH AXIS
PIVOTING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...LEADING TO ADDITIONAL LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING/MIDDAY. THE BIGGER STORY
HOWEVER WILL BE THE PUSH OF COLD AIR BROUGHT IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FRIDAY. H85 TEMPS WILL CRASH TO ABOUT -2C BY FRIDAY EVENING.
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S BY EVENING WITH GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWS
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S WITH FROST DEVELOPMENT UNLIKELY THANKS
TO WINDS AND CLOUDS AS WELL AS SOME SHOWERS. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
ONLY REACH THE LOWER 50S AND SOME AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST MAY BE HELD
INTO THE UPPER 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S AS A WEAK RIDGE AXIS ARRIVES BY SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS MAY STAY STRONG ENOUGH AND CLOUD COVER EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FROST DEVELOPMENT. MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM LATER
SUNDAY BUT CLOUDS AND PRECIP MAY TEMPER WARMING SO AM EXPECTING
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH 60 POSSIBLE FAR SOUTH.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE IT STARTS
TO TRANSITION NORTHEAST AND MUCH LOWER AMPLITUDE FLOW BUILDS IN.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE PASSAGE OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND
THEREFORE PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES WITH MONDAY LOOKING TO BE A PERIOD
OF HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP. MID LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY WARM THOUGH
SOME COOLING AND WARMING WILL BE MODULATED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE
WAVES BUT OVERALL SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE ON A SLOW UPWARD TREND INTO
MID WEEK...WITH UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S POSSIBLE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AFTER 23 UTC THROUGH AROUND 04 TO
05 UTC THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND RAIN LIKELY PERSISTING
OVERNIGHT.
* IFR TO POSSIBLY LIFR CIGS LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
* WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST FOLLOWING FROPA EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH INCREASING SPEEDS DURING THE DAY.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY EXPECTED THE IMPACT THE TERMINALS BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
PLENTY OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE AREA
OUT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND
MISSOURI. THIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE MVFR CIGS AROUND 2,000 FT
AGL. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MISSOURI AND INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AFTER
21-22 UTC. IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE THROUGH MID TO LATE THIS EVENING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AT TIMES. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN AND IFR
TO LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT THIS EVENING.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD SHIFT OVER THE TERMINALS AROUND
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST. CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING...BUT GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH WITH WIND SPEED/DURATION.
* MEDIUM-HIGH WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MEDIUM ON TIMING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH WITH IFR CIGS TONIGHT...LOW-MEDIUM WITH LIFR.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
1249 PM CDT
MAIN MARINE FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF
WESTERLY GALES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN
BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND TO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY FRIDAY
MORNING. IN THE PROCESS...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. A COMBINATION OF MUCH COOLER AIR AND THE TIGHTENING OF THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEEPENING LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING A
PERIOD OF 35 KT GALES DEVELOPING BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MAINTAIN THE COOL ADVECTION ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH WINDS SLOWLY EASING TO 25-30 KT SATURDAY NIGHT. DEEP LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LAKES ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SOME WEAKENING
OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
LAKES AS ANOTHER WEAKER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS LOOKS TO
KEEP WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT/ABOVE 20 KT INTO SUNDAY.
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
OVER THE ILLINOIS NEAR SHORE ZONES...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FARTHER EAST ALONG THE INDIANA SHORE.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744-
LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878...4 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1235 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Enough clear patches have occurred over the southeast CWA to allow
CAPE`s to rise into the 1500-2000 J/kg range, with higher values
further south, per SPC mesoanalysis and GOES soundings. Line of
convection currently extending from Decatur southeast will begin
affecting east central Illinois early this afternoon, while
regional radar mosaics showing storms quickly developing over
south central Illinois near Salem and Flora. SPC watching this
area closely for a potential watch. Larger area of strong to
severe storms currently in central/south central Missouri progged
by the High-Res ARW/NMM and HRRR models to be moving through
central Illinois in the 4 pm time frame.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Have decided to issue a Flash Flood Watch for portions of the
southwest CWA which were hit harder with the rains last night.
This would include areas from Rushville southeast to Jacksonville,
then eastward to Taylorville. Observed totals were heaviest in
Christian County with 2-4 inches common, with similar totals
along the Illinois River. Moderate risk of flash flooding is
indicated in this area, with another 2 to 3 inches possible. Watch
will be out shortly.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1029 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Short break in the rain occurring over a large part of the
forecast area this morning, however a large area of showers and
thunderstorms was beginning to spread into the far western CWA.
Latest HRRR guidance has this overspreading many areas west of
I-55 into early afternoon, but the model has not been handling the
narrow axis along the I-70 corridor very well. Storms expected to
increase across the eastern CWA during the afternoon. Main cold
front is still well off to the west, and should start to move into
the western CWA during the evening hours. The rain trends should
rapidly decrease behind the front after its passage overnight.
Main question for this afternoon/evening will be with severe
weather potential. Right now only areas east of I-55 are seeing
scattered breaks in the clouds. MUCAPE values around 500 J/kg or
so across the south half of the forecast area, per SPC
mesoanalysis. RAP soundings from Springfield do bring CAPE`s up to
around 1500 J/kg during the late afternoon as the precipitation
becomes more concentrated west of the I-55 corridor. Rather moist
soundings do favor heavy rain, with precipitable water around 1.8
inches which is near the 99th percentile for early October. Any
severe weather that occurs will be more of a wind threat in our
area due to the moist profile.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
06z/1am surface analysis shows warm front extending from central
Missouri eastward into the Ohio River Valley. Several clusters of
convection have been tracking along/north of the front overnight,
aided by a 30-35kt 850mb jet streak oriented from the Southern
Plains northeastward across the boundary. This activity will
continue for the next few hours, but should begin to wane by
mid-morning as front lifts further northward. Based on current
radar trends and 00z model data, will carry likely PoPs
along/northwest of I-70 through midday, with only chance PoPs
further south. Meanwhile, low pressure developing over Oklahoma
will track northeastward into southern Wisconsin by this evening.
Line of thunderstorms is expected to develop along/ahead of
associated cold front, with most model solutions keeping this
convection just west of the KILX CWA until late afternoon/early
evening. Have increased PoPs to categorical across the Illinois
River Valley this afternoon in case storms get going faster than
anticipated, but think bulk of activity will hold off until
evening. Aside from the rain chances today, it will be another
very warm day with highs ranging from the middle 70s far northwest
around Galesburg to the middle 80s along/south of I-70.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Latest Day 1 convective outlook from SPC places all of
central/southeast Illinois under a slight risk for severe weather
tonight. With a very warm/humid air mass surging northward ahead of
an approaching cold front, resulting CAPE values will likely
exceed 1500J/kg later today. In addition, low-level wind shear
will be increasing with 0-6km bulk shear values generally in the
30-40kt range. These favorable parameters combined with strong
convergence along the cold front will lead to the development of a
line of thunderstorms this evening. Models generally develop the
storms along the Mississippi River by late afternoon, then push
them eastward to the I-55 corridor by mid-evening and into
east-central Illinois shortly after midnight. Main severe weather
threat will be strong/damaging winds, although highest
probabilities for widespread severe will likely remain further
southwest from the St. Louis area southwestward to Texas. With
precipitable water values climbing over 1.75, high rainfall rates
will be likely with any storms that develop. Localized flash
flooding may develop within the strongest storms: however, recent
rainfall amounts have not been great enough over a wide enough
area to warrant a Flash Flood Watch at this time.
Front will push into Indiana by Friday morning, bringing an end to
the greatest rain chances. Still some model discrepancy concerning
timing of frontal departure, with the ECMWF being the slowest. Have
therefore hung on to chance PoPs early Friday morning along/east of
I-57. A secondary upper wave currently evident on water vapor
imagery over Alberta will dive southeastward Friday
afternoon/evening, amplifying the mean trough over the Great
Lakes/Midwest. Synoptic lift and steep mid-level lapse rates
associated with this feature will be enough to warrant a slight
chance for showers, mainly during the afternoon. Main weather story
on Friday will be the windy and sharply cooler conditions.
Tightening pressure gradient between departing front and approaching
Canadian high pressure will lead to strong W/NW winds gusting to
between 30 and 35mph. Temperatures will struggle to rise much at
all from morning lows, with readings remaining in the 60s.
With 850mb temps progged to drop into the -3 to -5C range, low
temperatures by Saturday morning will fall into the middle
30s...representing a nearly 50 degree temp drop from expected high
temps today! Due to a continued brisk northwesterly breeze, am
not expecting any frost to develop Friday night. Heart of cold
air mass will be in place across Illinois on Saturday, with highs
struggling to reach the middle to upper 50s and overnight lows
once again dropping into the middle to upper 30s. With much
lighter winds expected, a few patches of frost will be possible by
Sunday morning, especially if skies can remain clear ahead of the
next approaching short-wave trough.
After that, the Midwest will be dominated by northwesterly
upper-level flow through Tuesday before trough retreats into Canada
by the middle and end of next week. This will mean continued below
normal temps in the 60s through Tuesday, followed by a warming trend
and a return to the 70s by Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Initial line of convection will be moving into KDEC shortly and
KCMI toward 18Z or so, with TEMPO poeriods of IFR visibilities
from heavy rain. Remainder of the TAF sites will be seeing a
steady rain for a couple hours, then a break before the next round
of convection currently in central Missouri moves northeast. The
rain and storms will end with the passage of a cold front, which
should be passing through KPIA/KSPI toward 06Z and the remainder
of the TAF sites through 10Z. Cloud cover ahead and behind the
front will be MVFR around 1500-2000 feet, although there may be a
1-3 hour window early Friday morning where the clouds scatter out
for a time.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR ILZ040-047-049>052.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Geelhart
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1231 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
317 AM CDT
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS OF THIS COMPLEX FORECAST PERIOD...WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
SPREADING IN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A MASSIVE UPPER TROUGH OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH NUMEROUS WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW
TRIGGERING AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERAL OF THESE WAVES ARE LINED
UP FROM TX/OK TO EASTERN WISCONSIN. AT THE SURFACE...LOOSELY
ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE IS OVER OKLAHOMA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EASTWARD FROM IT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
WARM/MOIST ASCENT IS DRIVING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH AT LEAST ONE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER WAVES.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER WAVE AIDING THE SHOWER/THUNDER
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING WITH CURRENT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL EXIT TO
THE NORTHEAST BY MID MORNING OR SO. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS/THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR
LARGE SCALE PRECIP DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MIDDAY OR EVEN EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH CURRENT CONVECTION ALSO HELPING TO LIMIT THE
INCOMING MOISTURE FLUX. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST
AND BECOME MARGINALLY BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY PUSHING TOWARD WESTERN KS/OK/TX
ADVANCES EASTWARD. IT DOES APPEAR THAT ONE OR SEVERAL MID/UPPER
WAVES WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WITH AT LEAST
ONE CURRENTLY PRODUCING NEW CONVECTION ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THIS MAY
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION LOCALLY FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. ANOTHER POTENTIAL
SOURCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE THE NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THIS AFTERNOON AND BE NORTH OF THE
AREA BY THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE DETAILS FROM
ABOUT MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IS LIMITED BUT WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE IDEA THAT THERE WILL BE A MINIMUM OF ACTIVITY DURING THIS
TIME...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME ACTIVITY AROUND. THE SURFACE LOW
REMAINS ELONGATED AND TRACKS NORTHWARD ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS
FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY EVENING. THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE EAST AS WELL HELPING TO FOCUS NEW
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW. THIS
WILL LEAD TO STEADILY INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
CROSSING THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEEPENS OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. AN
ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BUT THE MAIN
QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH IN THE AREA IT MAY EXTEND.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS A CONCERN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
1.6-1.7 INCHES. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
WITH HIGHER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IF A LINE OF PARTICULARLY
WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION DOES CROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF LESS INTENSE SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL BE A CHALLENGE WITH IT CONDITIONAL ON THE EXTENT OF THE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. BETTER INSTABILITY WOULD LIKELY
NEED TO BE ADVECTED IN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG AS WILL THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE FORCING
SO EVEN WEAK INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER...WITH
GUIDANCE SHOWING AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING BY LATE DAY
WHICH WOULD BE PLENTY TO INCREASE THE SEVERE THREAT. DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT A WELL DEVELOPED
SQUALL LINE COULD SPAWN A FEW SHORT LIVED TORNADOES PROVIDED STRONG
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AND THERE IS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
TURNING. UNFORTUNATELY THERE ARE STILL TOO MANY UNCERTAIN VARIABLES
TO HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO CENTRAL
ONTARIO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT EXITING THE EASTERN CWA.
THE EXIT OF RAIN TO THE EAST MAY LAG THE FRONT THANKS TO THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS STILL CROSSING THE AREA. ANOTHER PUSH OF ENERGY WILL BE
RACING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT SPAWNING
AMPLIFICATION OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
WITH IT. YET ANOTHER WAVES RACES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE NOW VERY
AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH HELPING IT TO CLOSE OFF OVER WISCONSIN
FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH THEN LEADS TO ANOTHER EMBEDDED TROUGH AXIS
PIVOTING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...LEADING TO ADDITIONAL LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING/MIDDAY. THE BIGGER STORY
HOWEVER WILL BE THE PUSH OF COLD AIR BROUGHT IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FRIDAY. H85 TEMPS WILL CRASH TO ABOUT -2C BY FRIDAY EVENING.
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S BY EVENING WITH GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWS
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S WITH FROST DEVELOPMENT UNLIKELY THANKS
TO WINDS AND CLOUDS AS WELL AS SOME SHOWERS. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
ONLY REACH THE LOWER 50S AND SOME AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST MAY BE HELD
INTO THE UPPER 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S AS A WEAK RIDGE AXIS ARRIVES BY SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS MAY STAY STRONG ENOUGH AND CLOUD COVER EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FROST DEVELOPMENT. MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM LATER
SUNDAY BUT CLOUDS AND PRECIP MAY TEMPER WARMING SO AM EXPECTING
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH 60 POSSIBLE FAR SOUTH.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE IT STARTS
TO TRANSITION NORTHEAST AND MUCH LOWER AMPLITUDE FLOW BUILDS IN.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE PASSAGE OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND
THEREFORE PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES WITH MONDAY LOOKING TO BE A PERIOD
OF HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP. MID LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY WARM THOUGH
SOME COOLING AND WARMING WILL BE MODULATED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE
WAVES BUT OVERALL SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE ON A SLOW UPWARD TREND INTO
MID WEEK...WITH UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S POSSIBLE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AFTER 23 UTC THROUGH AROUND 04 TO
05 UTC THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND RAIN LIKELY PERSISTING
OVERNIGHT.
* IFR TO POSSIBLY LIFR CIGS LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
* WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST FOLLOWING FROPA EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH INCREASING SPEEDS DURING THE DAY.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY EXPECTED THE IMPACT THE TERMINALS BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
PLENTY OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE AREA
OUT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND
MISSOURI. THIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE MVFR CIGS AROUND 2,000 FT
AGL. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MISSOURI AND INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AFTER
21-22 UTC. IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE THROUGH MID TO LATE THIS EVENING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AT TIMES. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN AND IFR
TO LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT THIS EVENING.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD SHIFT OVER THE TERMINALS AROUND
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST. CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING...BUT GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH WITH WIND SPEED/DURATION.
* MEDIUM-HIGH WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MEDIUM ON TIMING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH WITH IFR CIGS TONIGHT...LOW-MEDIUM WITH LIFR.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
441 AM CDT
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SPANS THE ATLANTIC COAST AND LOW
PRESSURE IS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE LAKE. THE
SURFACE PATTERN HAS TIGHTENED THIS MORNING AND HAS RESULTED IN
SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEEDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE LAKE WHERE 15 TO 25 KT WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED. THESE CURRENT
SPEEDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH THIS MORNING...WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 10
TO 20 KT BEING OBSERVED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY...AND THEN CONTINUE NORTHEAST TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHILE ALSO
STRENGTHENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VARYING WIND DIRECTION AS
WELL AS AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
BE INCREASING THROUGH THIS PERIOD...IT APPEARS THAT SPEEDS WILL
REALLY RAMP UP LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WEST
GALES DO APPEAR TO BE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...AND SO
ISSUED A GALE WATCH. THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF
THE STRONGEST WINDS BUT WITH THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS POSSIBLY
OBSERVING THESE GALES AS WELL...DID GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A PORTION
OF THE INDIANA NEARSHORE ZONES. AS THE LOW CONTINUES NORTH THROUGH
ONTARIO TO HUDSON BAY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WEST WINDS TO
30 KT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BEFORE DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744-
LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878...4 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1121 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Have decided to issue a Flash Flood Watch for portions of the
southwest CWA which were hit harder with the rains last night.
This would include areas from Rushville southeast to Jacksonville,
then eastward to Taylorville. Observed totals were heaviest in
Christian County with 2-4 inches common, with similar totals
along the Illinois River. Moderate risk of flash flooding is
indicated in this area, with another 2 to 3 inches possible. Watch
will be out shortly.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1029 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Short break in the rain occurring over a large part of the
forecast area this morning, however a large area of showers and
thunderstorms was beginning to spread into the far western CWA.
Latest HRRR guidance has this overspreading many areas west of
I-55 into early afternoon, but the model has not been handling the
narrow axis along the I-70 corridor very well. Storms expected to
increase across the eastern CWA during the afternoon. Main cold
front is still well off to the west, and should start to move into
the western CWA during the evening hours. The rain trends should
rapidly decrease behind the front after its passage overnight.
Main question for this afternoon/evening will be with severe
weather potential. Right now only areas east of I-55 are seeing
scattered breaks in the clouds. MUCAPE values around 500 J/kg or
so across the south half of the forecast area, per SPC
mesoanalysis. RAP soundings from Springfield do bring CAPE`s up to
around 1500 J/kg during the late afternoon as the precipitation
becomes more concentrated west of the I-55 corridor. Rather moist
soundings do favor heavy rain, with precipitable water around 1.8
inches which is near the 99th percentile for early October. Any
severe weather that occurs will be more of a wind threat in our
area due to the moist profile.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
06z/1am surface analysis shows warm front extending from central
Missouri eastward into the Ohio River Valley. Several clusters of
convection have been tracking along/north of the front overnight,
aided by a 30-35kt 850mb jet streak oriented from the Southern
Plains northeastward across the boundary. This activity will
continue for the next few hours, but should begin to wane by
mid-morning as front lifts further northward. Based on current
radar trends and 00z model data, will carry likely PoPs
along/northwest of I-70 through midday, with only chance PoPs
further south. Meanwhile, low pressure developing over Oklahoma
will track northeastward into southern Wisconsin by this evening.
Line of thunderstorms is expected to develop along/ahead of
associated cold front, with most model solutions keeping this
convection just west of the KILX CWA until late afternoon/early
evening. Have increased PoPs to categorical across the Illinois
River Valley this afternoon in case storms get going faster than
anticipated, but think bulk of activity will hold off until
evening. Aside from the rain chances today, it will be another
very warm day with highs ranging from the middle 70s far northwest
around Galesburg to the middle 80s along/south of I-70.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Latest Day 1 convective outlook from SPC places all of
central/southeast Illinois under a slight risk for severe weather
tonight. With a very warm/humid air mass surging northward ahead of
an approaching cold front, resulting CAPE values will likely
exceed 1500J/kg later today. In addition, low-level wind shear
will be increasing with 0-6km bulk shear values generally in the
30-40kt range. These favorable parameters combined with strong
convergence along the cold front will lead to the development of a
line of thunderstorms this evening. Models generally develop the
storms along the Mississippi River by late afternoon, then push
them eastward to the I-55 corridor by mid-evening and into
east-central Illinois shortly after midnight. Main severe weather
threat will be strong/damaging winds, although highest
probabilities for widespread severe will likely remain further
southwest from the St. Louis area southwestward to Texas. With
precipitable water values climbing over 1.75, high rainfall rates
will be likely with any storms that develop. Localized flash
flooding may develop within the strongest storms: however, recent
rainfall amounts have not been great enough over a wide enough
area to warrant a Flash Flood Watch at this time.
Front will push into Indiana by Friday morning, bringing an end to
the greatest rain chances. Still some model discrepancy concerning
timing of frontal departure, with the ECMWF being the slowest. Have
therefore hung on to chance PoPs early Friday morning along/east of
I-57. A secondary upper wave currently evident on water vapor
imagery over Alberta will dive southeastward Friday
afternoon/evening, amplifying the mean trough over the Great
Lakes/Midwest. Synoptic lift and steep mid-level lapse rates
associated with this feature will be enough to warrant a slight
chance for showers, mainly during the afternoon. Main weather story
on Friday will be the windy and sharply cooler conditions.
Tightening pressure gradient between departing front and approaching
Canadian high pressure will lead to strong W/NW winds gusting to
between 30 and 35mph. Temperatures will struggle to rise much at
all from morning lows, with readings remaining in the 60s.
With 850mb temps progged to drop into the -3 to -5C range, low
temperatures by Saturday morning will fall into the middle
30s...representing a nearly 50 degree temp drop from expected high
temps today! Due to a continued brisk northwesterly breeze, am
not expecting any frost to develop Friday night. Heart of cold
air mass will be in place across Illinois on Saturday, with highs
struggling to reach the middle to upper 50s and overnight lows
once again dropping into the middle to upper 30s. With much
lighter winds expected, a few patches of frost will be possible by
Sunday morning, especially if skies can remain clear ahead of the
next approaching short-wave trough.
After that, the Midwest will be dominated by northwesterly
upper-level flow through Tuesday before trough retreats into Canada
by the middle and end of next week. This will mean continued below
normal temps in the 60s through Tuesday, followed by a warming trend
and a return to the 70s by Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
The timing of thunderstorms over the next 24 hours will be the
main concern, and the associated IFR/LIFR conditions during
storms. Based on current radar trends, there should be a break in
the showers and storms at all terminals this morning. SPI will
see the return of some storms the soonest as a band of storms
moves out of NE Missouri and reaches SPI as soon as 16z. That
convection could reach to DEC as well, and have indicated that in
the TAFS. PIA, BMI and CMI could remain dry for a longer period,
possibly well into the afternoon or early evening. CMI looks to
be closer to the current storm track, so may see a few showers
pass close by to the south during the day.
The main threat for strong to severe storms looks to be this
evening for PIA, SPI and BMI. A 3-hour tempo for heavy rain and
storms with IFR conditions was included in the TAFs for the
current best-estimate on timing of the line of storms. We
estimated 00z for PIA and 04z for CMI, but those hours may need
adjustment as the cold frontal timing becomes more apparent.
After the cold front passes, winds will begin to shift to the SW
then W, with some gusts possible by morning. Also, MVFR clouds are
likely to persist through 12z/7am Friday.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR ILZ040-047-049>052.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
602 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
THE FIRST COLD FRONT IS EXITING OUR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES AS I
WRITE THIS DISCUSSION. IN THE WEST, CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SCATTERING OUT
AND WINDS SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY. BY 22Z, THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
SHOULD HAVE CLEARED OUT, AND BY 02Z THE EASTERN HALF. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN NEAR SUNSET, AND WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EVERYWHERE BY THAT TIME. NORMALLY, WITH RECENT RAINS AND
LIGHT WINDS, I AT FIRST CONSIDERED PUTTING IN SOME MENTION OF FOG
LATE TONIGHT. BUT THEN I REALIZED ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH PRIOR TO SUNRISE FRIDAY. WINDS BEHIND THE OVERNIGHT FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE NORTH AT 18G28KT, THUS NEGATING
THE CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOWS TONIGHT ARE VERY CLOSE TO WHAT
THE NAMDNG25 AND RAP MODELS ARE FORECASTING, RANGING FROM NEAR 40F
DEGREES IN WAKEENEY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, TO THE MID 40S FROM
LARNED TO DODGE CITY TO LIBERAL, AND TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS.
THAT 2ND COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WILL USHER IN COLD AIR. THE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH JUST A FEW CLOUDS WILL
BE PASSING AND SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY, TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL STRUGGLE TO RISE IN THE COLD AIR MASS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
ONLY REACH AROUND THE 60F DEGREE MARK FRIDAY NORTHWEST OF A JOHNSON
CITY TO GARDEN CITY TO HAYS LINE. WINDS WILL DROP OFF TOWARD SUNSET
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FALLS, AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RAPIDLY
DURING FRIDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SATURDAY WHILE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH A SERIES OF H5 VORT
MAXIMA WILL CONTINUE TO CYCLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, A NUMBER OF WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVES WILL HELP USHER SURGES OF DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. AS A RESULT, PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS WILL HELP REINFORCE
THE COOLER AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND 5C IN CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
THE 0C ISOTHERM WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS. ADDITIONALLY, THE MODELS INDICATE A LEE SIDE
TROUGH BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TURNING LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS MORE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST
KANSAS WHERE H85 TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSER TO 10C.
WITH THE HELP OF A DOWNSLOPE FLOW, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER WITH LOWS NEAR 40F. HOWEVER, LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30(F) IN CENTRAL KANSAS WITH AREAS OF
PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT SATURDAY ENHANCING THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS DRAWING WARMER
AIR BACK INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, MUCH COOLER
AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCKED IN ACROSS EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS RESULTING IN A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EAST TO
WEST ACROSS THE STATE. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
REACHING UP NEAR 10C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARD MID SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH H85 TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE 15C IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS EASILY UP INTO THE 70S(F) ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 70S(F), IF AT ALL, IN CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR
THE I-70 CORRIDOR DEPENDING WHERE THE GRADIENT SETS UP. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL THEN PROCEED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH TAF PD. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AFTER
01Z. ANOTHER FRONT ALONG WITH MIXING WILL BRING INCREASING NNW/NW/GUSTY
WINDS BY TOMORROW MORNING IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 44 62 38 73 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 42 61 37 74 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 43 62 40 75 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 44 64 40 75 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 40 60 36 70 / 0 0 0 0
P28 47 65 38 72 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
255 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
THE FIRST COLD FRONT IS EXITING OUR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES AS I
WRITE THIS DISCUSSION. IN THE WEST, CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SCATTERING OUT
AND WINDS SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY. BY 22Z, THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
SHOULD HAVE CLEARED OUT, AND BY 02Z THE EASTERN HALF. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN NEAR SUNSET, AND WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EVERYWHERE BY THAT TIME. NORMALLY, WITH RECENT RAINS AND
LIGHT WINDS, I AT FIRST CONSIDERED PUTTING IN SOME MENTION OF FOG
LATE TONIGHT. BUT THEN I REALIZED ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH PRIOR TO SUNRISE FRIDAY. WINDS BEHIND THE OVERNIGHT FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE NORTH AT 18G28KT, THUS NEGATING
THE CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOWS TONIGHT ARE VERY CLOSE TO WHAT
THE NAMDNG25 AND RAP MODELS ARE FORECASTING, RANGING FROM NEAR 40F
DEGREES IN WAKEENEY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, TO THE MID 40S FROM
LARNED TO DODGE CITY TO LIBERAL, AND TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS.
THAT 2ND COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WILL USHER IN COLD AIR. THE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH JUST A FEW CLOUDS WILL
BE PASSING AND SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY, TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL STRUGGLE TO RISE IN THE COLD AIR MASS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
ONLY REACH AROUND THE 60F DEGREE MARK FRIDAY NORTHWEST OF A JOHNSON
CITY TO GARDEN CITY TO HAYS LINE. WINDS WILL DROP OFF TOWARD SUNSET
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FALLS, AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RAPIDLY
DURING FRIDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SATURDAY WHILE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH A SERIES OF H5 VORT
MAXIMA WILL CONTINUE TO CYCLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, A NUMBER OF WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVES WILL HELP USHER SURGES OF DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. AS A RESULT, PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS WILL HELP REINFORCE
THE COOLER AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND 5C IN CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
THE 0C ISOTHERM WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS. ADDITIONALLY, THE MODELS INDICATE A LEE SIDE
TROUGH BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TURNING LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS MORE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST
KANSAS WHERE H85 TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSER TO 10C.
WITH THE HELP OF A DOWNSLOPE FLOW, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER WITH LOWS NEAR 40F. HOWEVER, LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30(F) IN CENTRAL KANSAS WITH AREAS OF
PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT SATURDAY ENHANCING THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS DRAWING WARMER
AIR BACK INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, MUCH COOLER
AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCKED IN ACROSS EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS RESULTING IN A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EAST TO
WEST ACROSS THE STATE. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
REACHING UP NEAR 10C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARD MID SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH H85 TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE 15C IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS EASILY UP INTO THE 70S(F) ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 70S(F), IF AT ALL, IN CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR
THE I-70 CORRIDOR DEPENDING WHERE THE GRADIENT SETS UP. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL THEN PROCEED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
OVERALL, WE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS, WITH KHYS BECOME VFR FROM MVFR
BY 20Z. AS A COLD FRONT EXITS EAST OF THE TAF AREAS, SKIES WILL
BECOME CLEAR AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BLOW AT 20G30KTS THROUGH
00Z. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE SUNDOWN
APPROACHES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ZIP DOWN FROM WYOMING FRIDAY
MORNING, AND WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST AT
19G25KT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 44 62 38 73 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 42 61 37 74 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 43 62 40 75 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 44 64 40 75 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 40 60 36 70 / 0 0 0 0
P28 48 65 38 72 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
200 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
...UPDATE FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
THE FIRST COLD FRONT IS EXITING OUR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES AS I
WRITE THIS DISCUSSION. IN THE WEST, CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SCATTERING OUT
AND WINDS SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY. BY 22Z, THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
SHOULD HAVE CLEARED OUT, AND BY 02Z THE EASTERN HALF. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN NEAR SUNSET, AND WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EVERYWHERE BY THAT TIME. NORMALLY, WITH RECENT RAINS AND
LIGHT WINDS, I AT FIRST CONSIDERED PUTTING IN SOME MENTION OF FOG
LATE TONIGHT. BUT THEN I REALIZED ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH PRIOR TO SUNRISE FRIDAY. WINDS BEHIND THE OVERNIGHT FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE NORTH AT 18G28KT, THUS NEGATING
THE CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOWS TONIGHT ARE VERY CLOSE TO WHAT
THE NAMDNG25 AND RAP MODELS ARE FORECASTING, RANGING FROM NEAR 40F
DEGREES IN WAKEENEY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, TO THE MID 40S FROM
LARNED TO DODGE CITY TO LIBERAL, AND TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS.
THAT 2ND COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WILL USHER IN COLD AIR. THE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH JUST A FEW CLOUDS WILL
BE PASSING AND SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY, TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL STRUGGLE TO RISE IN THE COLD AIR MASS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
ONLY REACH AROUND THE 60F DEGREE MARK FRIDAY NORTHWEST OF A JOHNSON
CITY TO GARDEN CITY TO HAYS LINE. WINDS WILL DROP OFF TOWARD SUNSET
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FALLS, AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RAPIDLY
DURING FRIDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
A SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL GRIP THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL SEE ANOTHER FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY FRIDAY, USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS.
WIND GRIDS WERE BUMPED UP EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY GIVEN
THE FAIRLY INTENSE ISALLOBARIC PUSH WITH THE ONSET OF THE FRONT. WE
WILL LIKELY SEE A 2 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30+ MPH
AND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
DAY, BUT NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WILL STILL EXIST THROUGH
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TO AROUND 60 FROM SCOTT CITY TO WAKEENEY TO HAYS AND 63-65F
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL
DECREASE FURTHER AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. FRIDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE AN IDEAL NIGHT
FOR MAXIMIZED RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH WINDS DECREASING TO 6 KNOTS
OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WE LOWERED
OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE MORE DEGREES TO 36-38F UP NORTH AND ADDED IN
PATCHY FROST FOR THE AREAS FORECAST 36F OR COOLER, PARTICULARLY
ALONG INTERSTATE 70. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN NEARLY
UNCHANGED, ON THE WHOLE, THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AND GREATER
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT, LEADING TO A NICE MODIFICATION OF THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE. WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO 80-DEGREE AFTERNOONS BY AS
EARLY AS MONDAY, AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY TUESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL
BE DRY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WIPED OUT FROM THE WEEKEND FRONT AND
OVERALL SUBSIDENCE/WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE
TROPOSPHERE. THERE MAY BE A RETURN TO SOME BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES GOING INTO LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST, WEST-
CENTRAL, SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
OVERALL, WE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS, WITH KHYS BECOME VFR FROM MVFR
BY 20Z. AS A COLD FRONT EXITS EAST OF THE TAF AREAS, SKIES WILL
BECOME CLEAR AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BLOW AT 20G30KTS THROUGH
00Z. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE SUNDOWN
APPROACHES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ZIP DOWN FROM WYOMING FRIDAY
MORNING, AND WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST AT
19G25KT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 44 62 38 76 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 42 61 37 76 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 43 62 40 76 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 44 64 40 77 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 40 60 36 71 / 0 0 0 0
P28 48 65 39 76 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
414 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
TWO UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY W OF THE REGION /ONE OVER THE PLAINS AND
ANOTHER MOVING INTO MT/ WILL COMBINE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WHILE
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL ENHANCE AND MOVE THE UPPER JET
CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA TO THE N...WHICH WILL PUT THE CWA UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. THIS WILL
DEEPEN THE 1006MB SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
ROUGHLY 996MB LOW WHILE IT MOVES TO NEAR GRB BY 06Z FRI AND 991MB
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z FRI. THE SFC LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN TO
AROUND 985MB AS IT MOVES TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY 00Z SAT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENS INTO A CLOSED LOW AND MOVES INTO WRN WI. MODEL
AGREEMENT IS GOOD BETWEEN ALL BUT THE ECMWF...WHICH IS
SLOWER...WEAKER AND FARTHER E. DID NOT USE THE ECMWF DUE TO IT BEING
AN OUTLIER.
PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES UP AND
JET FORCING IMPROVES...WITH SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY
THUNDER DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING AND 100-200J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE. HAVE 100 POPS SLOWLY MOVING SW TO NE LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH FRI MORNING. ONLY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP FRI AS THE DRY SLOT
ROTATES INTO THE AREA. BY MID AFTERNOON FRI...COOLER WESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN UPPER MI FOR THE
BEST PRECIP...ALONG WITH COOLING SFC TEMPS. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
TONIGHT AND FRI LOOK TO BE ABOVE 1 INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
0.75 INCHES AT IWD AND 1.5 INCHES AT ERY IN THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONGER TERM REVOLVE ARND POPS FOR LAKE
EFFECT PCPN/POTENTIAL FOR SOME SN ACCUMULATION THRU THE WEEKEND AS
CHILLY...DEEP CYC NW FLOW ARND CLOSED LO IN ONTARIO THAT IS FCST TO
DOMINATE THE UPR LKS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAX TEMPS WL BE
PARTICULARLY BLO NORMAL THRU THIS PERIOD. A RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WL BRING BACK MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS.
FRI NGT...A SHRTWV DIGGING INTO THE DEEPENING UPR TROF IN THE GREAT
LKS IS FCST TO DRAG A REINFORCING COLD FNT ACRS UPR MI AND DROP H85
TEMPS AS LO AS -3 TO -4C OVER THE W BY 12Z SAT. WHILE THERE WL BE
SOME SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FNT WITH ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC UNDER
AREA OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC...THE STRENGTHENING CYC FLOW W
VEERING NW LLVL FLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF THE DYNAMIC FORCING/COOLING
LLVL TEMPS WL RESULT IN LK ENHANCED PCPN LATER AT NGT FOLLOWING THE
FROPA...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OVER THE W DOWNWIND OF LK SUP FAVORED BY
THE FCST LLVL FLOW. SINCE THE GREAT MAJORITY OF THE MODELS SHOW
H100-85 THKNS REMAINING OVER 1305M THRU 12Z SAT AND LLVL LAPSE RATES
ARE RATHER UNSTABLE...THIS PCPN WL BE IN THE FORM OF RA. A FEW OF
THE HIER ELEVATION LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME SN MIX WITH THE PCPN
LATE...BUT NO ACCUMS ARE LIKELY.
SAT THRU MON NGT...A DEEP UPR LO IS FCST TO CONSOLIDATE OVER NW
ONTARIO DURING THIS TIME AS MYRIAD OF SHRTWVS PASSING THRU THE UPR
TROF PHASE AND LOWER HGTS AT THE CENTER OF THE UPR LO. A DEEP CYC
FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO DOMINATE THE UPR
LKS...WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO DIP AS LO AS ABOUT -5C LATE SAT/SUN
OVER THE N UNDER ASSOCIATED THERMAL TROF. WHILE THIS SETUP IS
FAVORABLE FOR LK EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS...TIMING ON THE PASSAGE OF
THE SHRTWVS AND PERIODS WHERE THE MSTR WL BE DEEPEST AND EXTEND THRU
THE -10C ISOTHERM TO PINPOINT PERIODS OF HEAVIER/MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WL BE DIFFICULT. ALTHOUGH SOME SN WL LIKELY MIX WITH THE
PCPN OVER MAINLY THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE W AND NCENTRAL...FCST
H100-85 THKNS AOA 1305M MOST OF THE TIME IN AREAS MOST PRONE TO THE
LK EFFECT PCPN DOWNWIND OF THE LK SUGGESTS THE SN WL BE LIMITED. THE
BEST CHC FOR SN TO MIX WITH THE PCPN WL BE SAT NGT/SUN MRNG OVER THE
INTERIOR NW...WHEN THE H85 TEMPS/THKNS ARE LOWEST. THE CYC FLOW IS
FCST TO BACK SLOWLY THRU THE PERIOD FM THE NNW ON SAT MRNG TO THE W
LATER ON SUN AND MON...SHIFTING THE LOCATION OF EXPECTED HIER
POPS/MORE NMRS LK EFFECT SHOWERS. STRONGER WINDS ON SAT/SUN WITH
H925 WINDS UP TO 30-35KTS ARE FCST TO DIMINISH BY MON AS THE UPR LO
BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT SLOWLY TO THE N. TEMPS WL RUN BLO NORMAL
TO WELL BLO NORMAL...ESPECIALLY THE DAYTIME MAX TEMPS. AS THE FLOW
BACKS TO THE W...LESS MODIFIED AIR WL BRING COLDER OVERNGT LO TEMPS
NEAR THE WI BORDER.
WITH A LENGTHY PERIOD OF STRONG NW TO W WINDS ON LAKE SUP...
INCLUDING GALES FOR A TIME...AND HI LAKE LEVELS (LAKE SUP IS
CURRENTLY ABOUT 6 INCHES BLO THE RECORD HI FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR)...
BEACH EROSION/FLOODING MAY BECOME A PROBLEM FOR AREAS THAT ARE
EXPOSED TO WAVES GENERATED BY W TO NW WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL HAZARD IN THE HWO/EHWO.
TUE THRU THU...AS THE CENTER OF LOWER HGTS TENDS TO SHIFT INTO
CENTRAL CANADA FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A FINAL SHRTWV THRU THE UPR
LKS MON NGT/TUE...THE FLOW OVER THE THE AREA IS PROGGED TO BECOME
MORE ZONAL AS HGTS SLOWLY RISE. THIS TRANSITION WL CAUSE LINGERING
PCPN ON TUE TO DIMINISH AS MAINLY DAYTIME TEMPS WARM. TIMING OF
DISTURBANCES MOVING THRU THE MORE ZONAL FLOW AND ASSOCIATED PCPN
SUGGESTS FOLLOWING A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THIS EVENING...CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR WITH UPSLOPE RAIN AND FOG. UTILIZED A
NEARLY EVEN BLEND OF CONSENSUS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND THE HRRR OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WEIGHTED MORE HEAVILY
TOWARD THE HIGH-RES WRF AND NAM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT WORST
CONDITIONS TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SLOW IMPROVEMENT FRI MORNING AS THE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES NE OF THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE NORTH ACROSS UPPER MI INTO LK
SUPERIOR. ONCE THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR ON
FRI...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW AND INCREASE UP TO 25-30 KTS.
STILL LOOKING FOR GALE FORCE W VEERING N WINDS TO DEVELOP ON FRI
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SURGE
OF COLDER AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. SINCE THE WINDS ON
FRI AFTERNOON ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS BEFORE...OPTED TO
SHIFT THE START OF THE GALE WATCH TO FRI EVENING. THE STRONG-GALE
FORCE NNW WINDS ON SAT MORNING WILL BACK TOWARD THE W AND DIMINISH
BY LATE IN THE DAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXES OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NW ONTARIO SHIFTS
TO THE N AND WEAKENS LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BACK TOWARD THE SW AND WEAKEN A
BIT. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON TUE...THE
WINDS MAY VEER BACK TOWARD THE W AND INCREASE AGAIN.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ267.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ263>266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
331 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
TWO UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY W OF THE REGION /ONE OVER THE PLAINS AND
ANOTHER MOVING INTO MT/ WILL COMBINE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WHILE
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL ENHANCE AND MOVE THE UPPER JET
CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA TO THE N...WHICH WILL PUT THE CWA UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. THIS WILL
DEEPEN THE 1006MB SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
ROUGHLY 996MB LOW WHILE IT MOVES TO NEAR GRB BY 06Z FRI AND 991MB
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z FRI. THE SFC LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN TO
AROUND 985MB AS IT MOVES TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY 00Z SAT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENS INTO A CLOSED LOW AND MOVES INTO WRN WI. MODEL
AGREEMENT IS GOOD BETWEEN ALL BUT THE ECMWF...WHICH IS
SLOWER...WEAKER AND FARTHER E. DID NOT USE THE ECMWF DUE TO IT BEING
AN OUTLIER.
PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES UP AND
JET FORCING IMPROVES...WITH SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY
THUNDER DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING AND 100-200J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE. HAVE 100 POPS SLOWLY MOVING SW TO NE LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH FRI MORNING. ONLY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP FRI AS THE DRY SLOT
ROTATES INTO THE AREA. BY MID AFTERNOON FRI...COOLER WESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN UPPER MI FOR THE
BEST PRECIP...ALONG WITH COOLING SFC TEMPS. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
TONIGHT AND FRI LOOK TO BE ABOVE 1 INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
0.75 INCHES AT IWD AND 1.5 INCHES AT ERY IN THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEEP TROF
THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN CONUS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES MAX OUT OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY EARLY
ON SAT WHERE 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE 3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLO THE
LONG TERM EARLY OCT AVG. TROF WILL EVOLVE INTO A LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER NRN ONTARIO FROM LATE SAT THRU THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A BLO NORMAL TEMP REGIME. DAILY MAX
TEMPS WILL BE THE MOST ANOMALOUS WITH MANY DAYS HAVING HIGHS WELL
BLO NORMAL. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED
WITH LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED PCPN UNDER COLD DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW.
AIR MASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AT TIMES OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...NOT THAT UNUSUAL FOR EARLY OCT. FARTHER OUT...MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING THE
TRANSITION TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE/LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW DURING THE
MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO MODERATION OF TEMPS
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL AFTER A COLD EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
BEGINNING FRI...SFC LOW WILL BE LIFTING N THRU ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE MORNING. MDT TO POSSIBLY HVY RAINFALL THAT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA TONIGHT WILL LINGER OVER THE E THRU AT LEAST THE MORNING
HRS AS A RESULT OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LIFTING N THRU LWR MI. ECMWF
REMAINS SLOWER THAN OTHER MODELS SHIFTING THIS RAIN OUT OF THE ERN
FCST AREA FRI. IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN PCPN AREA...A MORE SHOWERY
PCPN REGIME WILL TAKE OVER...BUT WITH MID LEVEL DRYING NOTED...A
GOOD PART OF THE DAY MAY ACTUALLY END UP DRY OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
AND CNTRL. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND TURN GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW UNDER A FAVORABLE WRLY WIND FLOW.
FRI NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A REINFORCING
SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA BRINGING COLDER AIR MORE
FIRMLY INTO THE UPPER LAKES...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -2 TO -4C
BY 12Z SAT. IN CONCERT WITH FAIRLY STRONG DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE THAT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA...LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE. WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR PCPN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
FAR W THE NEAR THE WI BORDER.
OVER THE WEEKEND...DEEP...CHILLY AND MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
DOMINATE AS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER NRN ONTARIO. WITH
850MB TEMPS IN THE -3 TO -6C RANGE...EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
LAKE EFFECT PCPN. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING
PERIODS OF HEAVIER/MORE WIDESPREAD LAKE ENHANCED PCPN. PCPN ON SAT
WILL BE MOST FAVORED IN AREAS AFFECTED BY NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT.
BACKING WINDS ON SUN WILL SHIFT PCPN TO AREAS THAT ARE MOST AFFECTED
BY WESTERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT. RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW
AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT AND
MORNING HRS.
WITH A LENGTHY PERIOD OF STRONG NW TO W WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR...
INCLUDING GALES FOR A TIME...AND HIGH LAKE LEVELS (LAKE SUPERIOR
IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 6 INCHES BLO THE RECORD HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR)...BEACH EROSION/FLOODING MAY BECOME A PROBLEM FOR AREAS THAT
ARE EXPOSED TO WAVES GENERATED BY W TO NW WINDS.
AS MENTIONED AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS DISCUSSION THERE IS MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT ON TRANSITIONING FLOW DURING THE MIDDLE AND END OF
NEXT WEEK. AGREEMENT IS GOOD THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER OVER
NRN ONTARIO THRU AT LEAST MON...WHICH WILL KEEP THE UPPER LAKES
UNDER ITS UNSETTLED INFLUENCE. LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TUE...
LEADING TO A TRANSITION TO DRY WEATHER AND SOME TEMP MODERATION.
MODERATION/DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WED WITH A MORE ZONALLY
ORIENTED FLOW TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE NRN CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THIS EVENING...CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR WITH UPSLOPE RAIN AND FOG. UTILIZED A
NEARLY EVEN BLEND OF CONSENSUS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND THE HRRR OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WEIGHTED MORE HEAVILY
TOWARD THE HIGH-RES WRF AND NAM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT WORST
CONDITIONS TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SLOW IMPROVEMENT FRI MORNING AS THE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES NE OF THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
EXPECT DIMINISHING S WINDS THIS MORNING OVER THE EAST. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT AS SFC LOW TO THE NORTH ACROSS
LK SUPERIOR. ONCE THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR ON
FRIDAY...STRONG WEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS LK SUPERIOR DUE TO
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR. GALE FORCE
WINDS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY AFTN...AND THESE WILL INCREASE TO 35-40
KTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS
COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL
BUT FAR WESTERN LK SUPERIOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AS IT STANDS NOW...GALE WARNINGS WILL EVENTUALLY BE
ISSUED EITHER LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
THOUGH GALES SHOULD DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WEST WINDS
20-30 KTS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING IN FROM SCNTRL CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ263>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
142 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
DESPITE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN LOW-LEVELS...MAIN WARM FRONT IS WELL
TO SOUTH OVER CNTRL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FRONT ESSENTIALLY IS
JUST TO SOUTH OF WHERE MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF TSRA ARE CURRENTLY
OCCURRING. STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA MOVING TOWARD
HUDSON BAY AND A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED FRONT FROM THE LOW TOWARD THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS REASON FOR THE SOUTH WINDS OVER UPR
LAKES REGION.
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING
OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE AND ON NOSE OF JET STREAK OVER WISCONSIN AND
WITHIN AREA OF GREATER MOISTURE ADVECTION. THERE IS ALSO A TOUCH OF
MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY BUT NO TSRA HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THUS FAR.
EXPECT SHRA OVER MAINLY EASTERN CWA INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTN WHILE
REST OF CWA SHOULD BE WITHIN A LULL AS MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM IN FORM
OF TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES...ONE OVER FOUR CORNERS AND THE OTHER STRONGER
ONE OVER WESTERN CANADA DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA...DOES NOT BEGIN TO AFFECT UPPER GREAT LAKES
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTN AND MORE EMPHATICALLY INTO TONIGHT. BACK TO
TODAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO END UP A BIT ABOVE NORMAL /NORMAL HIGHS UPR
50S TO LOW 60S/ AS 950-900MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM AHEAD OF LARGER
SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA AND ROCKIES AND CLOUD COVER BY
AFTN SHOULD THIN OUT SOME. EXPECT MAX TEMPS INTO THE 60S...WITH SHOT
AT EVEN SOME UPPER 60S FOR SOME LOCATIONS OVER WEST HALF OF CWA.
INTO THIS EVENING THE WESTERN CANADA SHORTWAVE DIVES ACROSS NORTHERN
PLAINS WHILE THE FOUR CORNERS WAVE HEADS ACROSS KS INTO WESTERN
MO. OVERNIGHT THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE AS IT PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WAVE. LIFT WILL
INCREASE DUE TO DEEPENING OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH FROM SCNTRL CANADA
TO SOUTHERN PLAINS/12 HR HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 150DAM SPREADING TOWARD
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND BROAD MODERATE/STRONG H7-H5 Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE OVER UPR GREAT LAKES. ENHANCEMENT TO LIFT AS H3 JET
STREAK AMPLIFIES FM UPPER GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN ONTARIO/HUDSON
BAY...PLACING MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION.
WITH THE BACKGROUND OF THIS LARGER SCALE SUPPORT...STRONG SSW-NNE
MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF THE INITIAL NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED SFC TROUGH AND AS WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORMING
OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING STEADILY DEEPENS AS IT LIFTS ALONG
TROUGH TO A POSITION SOMEWHERE VCNTY OF EASTERN LK SUPERIOR BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. OVERALL...CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND EXPECTED
FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SUPPORTS LARGE SHIELD OF MODERATE
RAIN LIFTING ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THOUGH
MOST OF THE NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS SEEM LIKELY TO REACH 0.75 INCHES OVER
EAST CWA...WHILE AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY BLO 0.50 INCH OVER WEST CWA AS
THAT AREA IS FARTHER REMOVED FM ADVECTION OF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
OVER 200 PCT OF NORMAL. STRENGTH OF DYNAMICS SUGGESTS SOME EMBEDDED
TSRA MAY OCCUR...THOUGH BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER EAST HALF OF CWA
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CLOSER TO STRONGER H85-H7 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND TRACK OF DEEPENING SFC LOW.
EVEN WITH THE DEEPENING LOW MOVING ACROSS TONIGHT...APPEARS STRONGER
WINDS WILL NOT MATERIALIZE UNTIL MORE SO ON FRIDAY. MINS TONIGHT
WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE FOR EARLY OCTOBER...WITH NEAR 50 DEGREE
READINGS WEST TO MID-UPR 50S FOR THE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEEP TROF
THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN CONUS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES MAX OUT OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY EARLY
ON SAT WHERE 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE 3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLO THE
LONG TERM EARLY OCT AVG. TROF WILL EVOLVE INTO A LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER NRN ONTARIO FROM LATE SAT THRU THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A BLO NORMAL TEMP REGIME. DAILY MAX
TEMPS WILL BE THE MOST ANOMALOUS WITH MANY DAYS HAVING HIGHS WELL
BLO NORMAL. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED
WITH LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED PCPN UNDER COLD DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW.
AIR MASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AT TIMES OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...NOT THAT UNUSUAL FOR EARLY OCT. FARTHER OUT...MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING THE
TRANSITION TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE/LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW DURING THE
MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO MODERATION OF TEMPS
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL AFTER A COLD EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
BEGINNING FRI...SFC LOW WILL BE LIFTING N THRU ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE MORNING. MDT TO POSSIBLY HVY RAINFALL THAT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA TONIGHT WILL LINGER OVER THE E THRU AT LEAST THE MORNING
HRS AS A RESULT OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LIFTING N THRU LWR MI. ECMWF
REMAINS SLOWER THAN OTHER MODELS SHIFTING THIS RAIN OUT OF THE ERN
FCST AREA FRI. IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN PCPN AREA...A MORE SHOWERY
PCPN REGIME WILL TAKE OVER...BUT WITH MID LEVEL DRYING NOTED...A
GOOD PART OF THE DAY MAY ACTUALLY END UP DRY OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
AND CNTRL. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND TURN GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW UNDER A FAVORABLE WRLY WIND FLOW.
FRI NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A REINFORCING
SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA BRINGING COLDER AIR MORE
FIRMLY INTO THE UPPER LAKES...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -2 TO -4C
BY 12Z SAT. IN CONCERT WITH FAIRLY STRONG DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE THAT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA...LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE. WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR PCPN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
FAR W THE NEAR THE WI BORDER.
OVER THE WEEKEND...DEEP...CHILLY AND MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
DOMINATE AS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER NRN ONTARIO. WITH
850MB TEMPS IN THE -3 TO -6C RANGE...EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
LAKE EFFECT PCPN. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING
PERIODS OF HEAVIER/MORE WIDESPREAD LAKE ENHANCED PCPN. PCPN ON SAT
WILL BE MOST FAVORED IN AREAS AFFECTED BY NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT.
BACKING WINDS ON SUN WILL SHIFT PCPN TO AREAS THAT ARE MOST AFFECTED
BY WESTERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT. RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW
AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT AND
MORNING HRS.
WITH A LENGTHY PERIOD OF STRONG NW TO W WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR...
INCLUDING GALES FOR A TIME...AND HIGH LAKE LEVELS (LAKE SUPERIOR
IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 6 INCHES BLO THE RECORD HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR)...BEACH EROSION/FLOODING MAY BECOME A PROBLEM FOR AREAS THAT
ARE EXPOSED TO WAVES GENERATED BY W TO NW WINDS.
AS MENTIONED AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS DISCUSSION THERE IS MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT ON TRANSITIONING FLOW DURING THE MIDDLE AND END OF
NEXT WEEK. AGREEMENT IS GOOD THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER OVER
NRN ONTARIO THRU AT LEAST MON...WHICH WILL KEEP THE UPPER LAKES
UNDER ITS UNSETTLED INFLUENCE. LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TUE...
LEADING TO A TRANSITION TO DRY WEATHER AND SOME TEMP MODERATION.
MODERATION/DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WED WITH A MORE ZONALLY
ORIENTED FLOW TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE NRN CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THIS EVENING...CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR WITH UPSLOPE RAIN AND FOG. UTILIZED A
NEARLY EVEN BLEND OF CONSENSUS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND THE HRRR OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WEIGHTED MORE HEAVILY
TOWARD THE HIGH-RES WRF AND NAM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT WORST
CONDITIONS TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SLOW IMPROVEMENT FRI MORNING AS THE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES NE OF THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
EXPECT DIMINISHING S WINDS THIS MORNING OVER THE EAST. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT AS SFC LOW TO THE NORTH ACROSS
LK SUPERIOR. ONCE THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR ON
FRIDAY...STRONG WEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS LK SUPERIOR DUE TO
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR. GALE FORCE
WINDS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY AFTN...AND THESE WILL INCREASE TO 35-40
KTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS
COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL
BUT FAR WESTERN LK SUPERIOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AS IT STANDS NOW...GALE WARNINGS WILL EVENTUALLY BE
ISSUED EITHER LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
THOUGH GALES SHOULD DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WEST WINDS
20-30 KTS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING IN FROM SCNTRL CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ263>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
248 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 248 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
The ongoing thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and early
evening ahead of a deep layer trough and an approaching cold front.
As of 19Z the cold front was just entering the northwest portion of
the CWA and slowly advancing eastward. The severe threat, hail and
wind, is very limited for our CWA and located across our far
southern counties along and south of a warm front. The front has
made very little northward progress due to reinforced cool air from
the morning/early afternoon convection to its north and thus it is
not expected to move much this afternoon. By later this evening the
warm sector will be shunted east with the passage of the
aforementioned cold front with much of the deeper convection east of
the CWA. There will be a low chance for post-frontal showers
and isolated elevated thunderstorms overnight tonight, but that
activity should not amount to much...per the HRRR and current 88D trends.
Near sunrise tomorrow a secondary cold front quickly moves in and
through the CWA behind the departing upper level trough. It will be rather
breezy behind the front with northwest winds gusting to as high as
30 MPH advecting much cooler and drier air. There will also be a
low chance pops for widely scattered showers...very hit or
miss...and diurnally driven.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
Any clouds lingering into Friday evening over central Missouri will
be fast to scatter out leaving clear skies overnight. This will set
the stage for one of the coldest nights of the season so far with
temperatures in the mid to upper 30s across much of the area. Some
guidance is bringing parts of northern Missouri down below freezing,
but this seems too cold since west winds should remain around 5 to 10
mph overnight. Coldest temperatures should be west of us, closer to
the low-level ridge axis. Could still see some patchy frost across
eastern KS into northern Missouri early Saturday morning particularly
in areas sheltered from a westerly wind.
This ridge axis will pass overhead on Saturday keeping temperatures
seasonably chilly with highs in the 50s. Southerly winds on the back
side of this feature will prevent Saturday night`s temperatures from
getting much below 40 degrees while Sunday sees a nice warm up into
the upper 60s and lower 70s.
On Monday a very weak wave will rotate into the area on the back side
of a large Great Lakes upper trough. Could see a few showers from
this feature but overall precipitation chances are only 30 percent or
so. Once this passes through, slow height rises will build into the
Plains and allow temperatures to warm into the middle and upper 70s
by Weds and Thurs.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
There will be several more rounds of TSRA this afternoon that will
briefly lower VIS as they pass over the terminals. CIS should remain
IFR to perhaps low MVFR before a cold front moves through over the
next few hours. Behind the front current CIGS are IFR so I maintain
that into the evening before slow improvement tonight. Another cold
front arrives near sunrise tomorrow that will create breezy northwest
winds and a SCT-BKN cloud deck through much of the day.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ057-060.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ033-040-
043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Pietrycha
LONG TERM...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Pietrycha
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1215 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
SEVERAL TIMING ISSUES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM.
INITIAL FOCUS WILL BE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTING TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA AT 07Z FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A STEADY PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. LATEST RAP HAS THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z. ALSO MAY NEED A
MENTION OF FOG FOR A SHORT TIME THIS MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA
BETWEEN HARLAN AND RED OAK WHERE VSBY IS REPORTED NEAR ZERO. WILL
MONITOR UNTIL ISSUANCE FOR ANY CHANGE AS CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO
SPREAD INTO THAT AREA.
A NEW FEATURE THAT HAS SHOWN UP IN TONIGHTS MODELS IS A SECONDARY
BAND OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO NEBRASKA TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE AND MAINLY FOR WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA AS INDICATED BY 00Z MODELS.
OTHERWISE WEATHER TURNS WINDY AND COLD BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH GOOD POTENTIAL FOR FROST OR FREEZE ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE MENTION
OF THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AND WAIT UNTIL LATER FORECAST FOR
HEADLINES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD UNTIL TOWARDS THE
END OF THE TIME FRAME WHEN ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. POPS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR NOW DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN POSITION AND TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD IMPACT KLNK/KOMA TAF SITES FOR A FEW HOURS
TO BEGIN TAF PERIOD...BUT GENERALLY PRECIP WAS WINDING DOWN ACROSS
ERN NEBR. HOWEVER...CIGS GENERALLY BETWEEN FL010-020 WILL LINGER
THIS AFTN BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN LATER. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE STATE LATE TONIGHT USHERING IN A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BOOST WINDS AND COULD ALSO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS. AT THIS TIME CHANCES APPEARED A LITTLE HIGHER
FROM KOFK TO KLNK WHERE MENTION WAS INCLUDED IN THE 18Z TAF.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...CHERMOK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
316 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...EARLY IN THE PERIOD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED UP AND DOWN MUCH OF THE COASTLINE. WIND HAS SOME
VARIABILITY TO IT BUT IS MAINLY LIGHT NE. COASTAL LOCATIONS HAVE
TURNED MORE ONSHORE DUE TO SEABREEZE AND AREAS NOT TOO FAR SOUTH
ALSO VEERING DUE TO SYNOPTIC FLOW CHANGE. THE MARINE LAYER HAS LEAD
TO A SPRINKLE OR TWO WITHIN THE AREA OF MORE ENHANCED CU BUT
NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION SHOULD SOON TEAM UP WITH WEAKENING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO MAKE THOSE A THING OF THE PAST. LATER ON THE
REST OF THE REGION WILL GET IN ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC SCALE
VEERING OF THE FLOW AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE PROGRESSES OFF
THE COAST. THIS SHOULD HELP LEAD TO SOME DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WHEN COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS. THE SAME HOLDS TRUE ALONG THE COAST
COMPLIMENTS OF THE SEA BREEZE. INTERESTINGLY GUIDANCE IS NOT MUCH
MORE IN FAVOR OF FOG WHEN COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS. FOR NOW HAVE
JUST ADVERTISED FOG AREA-WIDE MUCH LIKE WE DID LAST NIGHT. HAVE
DEFERRED TO THE EVENING SHIFT TO DETERMINE WHERE IT MAY BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE, IF ANYWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF THE REMNANT
SUBTROPICAL WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. A WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DISAPPEAR FROM THE WEATHER MAP BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS DEEP MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL CAROLINAS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS A VORT MAX WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH STILL BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.
MORNING SUNSHINE FRIDAY AND 850 MB TEMPS OF +14C TO +16C BOTH MEAN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ROCKET INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY BRING RAIN AND EMBEDDED
T-STORMS BY LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SC PEE DEE
REGION...SPREADING EASTWARD TO THE COAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
FORECAST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES LOOK INSUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...AND MY FORECAST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ONLY 0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES. THE PERIOD FOR THE
BEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 00-06Z
SATURDAY...COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST 300 MB DIFFLUENCE WHICH WILL
SUPPORT THE RAIN AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION.
AS OFTEN OCCURS LOCALLY THE FRONT WILL NOT COME THROUGH CLEANLY
IN ONE PIECE. THE SHIFT TO WESTERLY WINDS AND SOME DRIER LOW-LEVEL
AIR WILL ARRIVE AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. THE SIGNIFICANT
COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING WHEN LOW-
LEVEL WINDS FINALLY TURN NORTHWESTERLY AND 850 MB TEMPS START TO
FALL IN EARNEST...REACHING +3C TO +5C BY 12Z SUNDAY. WITH THIS
DELAYED COLD AIR ADVECTION I HAVE TRENDED FORECAST LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES...BETTER MATCHING THE
12Z NAM/GFS MODEL CONSENSUS. MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS REASONABLE
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S INLAND AND
LOWER 80S ON THE COAST...AND WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AROUND 50 ON
THE COAST AND DIPPING INTO THE 40S INLAND.
LOCATION FORECAST LOW SAT NIGHT LAST TIME IT WAS THIS COLD
WILMINGTON 50 MAY 20
FLORENCE 45 APRIL 17
N. MYRTLE BEACH 50 MAY 20
LUMBERTON 44 APRIL 24
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING SUN WILL TRANSITION TO
WEAK 5H RIDGING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE IS A
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY PRESENT IN THE FORECAST. RECENT MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS SHOW AMPLIFICATION OF MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WITH SOME SOLUTIONS SHOWING A CUTOFF DEVELOPING. EITHER
SOLUTION LEADS TO SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT...IN VARYING
STRENGTHS...OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS ALONG A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH
FROM CANADA.
THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TUE NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE CROSS THE CAROLINAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUMP DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION AND WEAK CONVERGENCE/LIFT WITH THE FRONT AND SOME WEAK MID
LEVEL SUPPORT DOES SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PRECIP LATE TUE
AND TUE NIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHC POP AT THIS
TIME GIVEN THAT CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE.
TEMPERATURES START OUT BELOW CLIMO WITH POTENTIAL FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING SUN NIGHT SETTING UP WHAT COULD BE THE COLDEST
MORNING OF THE EARLY FALL SEASON. TEMPS RETURN BACK TO CLIMO MON AND
HANG NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THE HRRR MODEL IS DEPICTING LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE
RESULTANT THIS AFTERNOON. JUST LOOKED AT THE CU OUTSIDE...AND IT
LOOKS PRETTY GOOD SO WILL ADD VCSH TO THE COASTAL TAFS. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WITH FOG AGAIN DEVELOPING WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. FOG WILL MOST DENSE AT LBT. FRIDAY...A WARM DAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. INCREASING CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF A RATHER
STRONG COLD FRONT. ANY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR WELL AFTER THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF TSTMS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY
SAT WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...EARLY ON THERE WILL STILL BE A LIGHT NORTH
AND EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WITH RIDGE AXIS RIGHT OVER THE
REGION. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
AND THE FLOW WILL GENTLY VEER TO SOUTHEAST OR EVEN SOUTH. WITH SUCH
A LIGHT GRADIENT THE WIND SPEED SHALL REMAIN CAPPED AT 10KT OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WIND CHANGE. WITH THE ONLY SWELL-PRODUCING
SYSTEM SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF NANTUCKET AND MOST OF THIS
ENERGY SHOULD BE INTERCEPTED BY CAPE HATTERAS. WNA SPECTRAL
BULLETINS DO HINT AT SOME 2 FT 7 SECOND ENERGY EITHER BYPASSING OR
REFRACTING AROUND HATTERAS ALONG THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE 20NM
ZONES. OTHERWISE THE MAIN WAVE WILL BE JUST THE WIND-GENERATED SEAS
WHICH WILL OBVIOUSLY BE MINIMAL. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL
STILL ONLY CALL FOR A FORECAST OF JUST 2 FT AREA-WIDE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BE QUICKLY DISPLACED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT ZIPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. THIS FRONT
IS THE FIRST REALLY SIGNIFICANT ONE OF THE FALL SEASON AND SHOULD
REACH THE BEACHES OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15
KNOTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...TO 15-20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL
SHIFT WESTERLY AROUND 15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IT WILL
PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE COLD AIR TO BEGIN
BLEEDING SOUTH INTO THE REGION AS WINDS FINALLY TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT. SEAS INITIALLY ONLY 2 FEET
FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO 3-5 FT FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
BUILD NO HIGHER AS WIND DIRECTIONS VEER MORE OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LIMITING THE EFFECTIVE FETCH LENGTH.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SOLID 15 KT NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OVERHEAD LATE SUN WITH WINDS BACKING TO WEST-SOUTHWEST SUN NIGHT AND
MON. WEAK SURFACE HIGH LINGERS OFF THE COAST INTO TUE...MAINTAINING
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL RUN 2
FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MBB/DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
120 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM UPDATE...JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER
AND ADD SPRINKLES ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLY NC. A NORTHEASTERLY
RESULTANT SEA BREEZE HAS IMPORTED SOME LOW LEVEL MARINE AIR
CONTAINING HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CAPE FEAR REGION.
THIS AIR IS THEN BEING LIFTED BY A WELL-DEFINED VORT MAX STREAKING
RIGHT OVERHEAD AT THE CURRENT TIME. THE CONTINUED DRY MID LEVELS
WILL PRECLUDE MEASURABLE RAINFALL ANYWHERE. ADDITIONALLY...THE
ADDED CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED SPRINKLES WILL LIKELY ONLY BE AROUND
FOR THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS...AFTER WHICH TIME THE MOISTURE MAY LINGER
BUT THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CEASE AS THE SENSE OF VORTICITY
ADVECTION CHANGES TO NEGATIVE.
AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...12Z RAOBS FROM BOTH MHX AND CHS SHOW A
SMALL INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MOSTLY MANIFESTED IN THE
LOW LEVELS. A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP IN THE
HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON...ANYWHERE UNDERNEATH THE MAIN SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AT 7KFT BEING FAIR GAME FOR A CLOUD BASE. ON AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
THIS IS CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES. NO CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE REMAINS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY/EARLY
SATURDAY. I HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ADDRESS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE. FOR SATURDAY...GUIDANCE HAS WARMED DRAMATICALLY AS THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS DELAYED EVEN FURTHER WARRANTING A MARKED
INCREASE IN HIGHS FOR SATURDAY...NOW APPROACHING 80 FOR MOST AREAS.
MUCH COOLER SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS AND HIGHS NOT
ECLIPSING THE 70 DEGREE MARK. MONDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST
VIA IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WITH 40S CWA WIDE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY ON THE
ORDER OF 10-15 KNOTS. LATE IN THE DAY THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE REALIGNS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS DROP DOWN TO
AROUND TEN KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THE HRRR MODEL IS DEPICTING LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE
RESULTANT THIS AFTERNOON. JUST LOOKED AT THE CU OUTSIDE...AND IT
LOOKS PRETTY GOOD SO WILL ADD VCSH TO THE COASTAL TAFS. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WITH FOG AGAIN DEVELOPING WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. FOG WILL MOST DENSE AT LBT. FRIDAY...A WARM DAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. INCREASING CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF A RATHER
STRONG COLD FRONT. ANY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR WELL AFTER THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF TSTMS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY
SAT WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...JUST ABOUT AS QUIET AS IT GETS OVER THE
WATER. HIGH PRESSURE COVERING NOT ONLY THE LANDMASS BUT ALSO THE
FIRST FEW HUNDRED MILES OF OCEAN MAKING FOR A VERY LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW. NO REAL SWELL ENERGY TO SPEAK OF SO THE PALTRY WIND WAVE THE
PREDOMINANT SEA STATE. LOOKS LIKE SEAS CAPPED AT 2 FT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY PICK UP IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH A 15-20 KNOT RANGE BY DAYS
END. THE FLOW WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INCREASE BY A COUPLE OF KNOTS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
SATURDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY JUST BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SATURDAY WILL SEE WINDS SUBSIDE AND TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST. SEAS DIMINISH FROM 3-5 FEET LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY TO 2-4 FEET BY LATE SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE VERY TRANQUIL
AS THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS BASICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO OFF THE EAST COAST WILL
BE THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE. THERE IS A DECENT SHORTWAVE RIDING
DOWN IN THE MAIN FLOW THAT MAY PROVIDE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BUT THE LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD NOT MAKE IT TO
THE COASTAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. BY WEDNESDAY EXPECT LOWER
80S FOR HIGHS WITH 60S FOR LOWS ALONG THE COAST WITH 50S INLAND.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
640 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THEN ANOTHER TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AMPLE MOISTURE UPSTREAM SHOULD LEND ITSELF TO A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
LATEST RAP AND NAM RUNS INDICATE CLEARING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...BUT THE CURRENT
SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO SUGGEST OTHERWISE WITH MID
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SO
THE SKY FORECAST LENDS ITSELF TO PERSISTENCE RATHER THAN MODEL
OUTPUT...AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS WELL. HOWEVER...THE
HIGHER POPS WILL BE IN THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THEN DECREASE EASTWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE PROBLEM IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD
EAST AND WILL THE THUNDERSTORMS BE WIDESPREAD OR JUST A CHANCE. WILL
SPREAD THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHAT QUICKLY EAST
ON FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A LITTLE QUICKER. AT THIS TIME
STILL KEPT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO A CHANCE. WE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
SHEAR AND THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH IF THE AIRMASS
BECAME UNSTABLE WE COULD HAVE SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THIS THREAT WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED.
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL END QUICKLY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE COULD BE A LITTLE LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE EVENING
ESPECIALLY WEST OF CLE AND AKRON.
AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THAT WILL MEAN SHOWERS LIKELY.
ON SATURDAY A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS AN UPPER TROF
MOVES THROUGH.
A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AS TROFS MOVE THROUGH.
WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH THE
UPPER TROF IN THE AREA. STARTING WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW BEGINS
TO PULL AWAY LEAVING THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION MORE ZONAL...THAT
IS ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND GFSENS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH
THIS TRANSITION AND BRINGS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND MAKING FOR ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY. WILL TAKE NOTE OF THIS...BUT CONTINUE
THE FORECAST IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE TROUGH SLOWLY PULLING
OUT. THAT WILL LEAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND FOR NOW KEEPING THURSDAY DRY. LOWS WILL
STICK IN THE 40S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AND BY
THURSDAY RETURN CLOSER TO NORMALS...WHICH THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
AND BEGIN TO INCREASE EVEN BEFORE MORNING FOR MFD/CLE/ERI. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR A CONCERN PRE-DAWN FOR TOL/FDY. COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS CERTAIN AND
THUNDER A GOOD POSSIBILITY FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD. FRONTAL
PASSAGE NOT UNTIL AFTER 18Z.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY NE OH/NW PA...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP
TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY START AS EARLY AS THE MORNING FOR
THE WESTERN BASIN WITH WINDS GETTING NEAR THE 20-25 KNOT MINIMUM.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT THAT WILL PASS DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WINDS AND CONDITIONS
ON THE LAKE WILL DETERIORATE AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR SEVERAL DAYS. A
GOOD PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL BRING WINDS UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND BY THEN A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS A CERTAINTY. THE LOW GETS HUNG UP ACROSS
CENTRAL ONTARIO/NORTHERN LAKES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE WSW GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY TIGHT
AND A PERIOD OF 20-30 KNOTS WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WINDS BECOME A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LOW WILL STILL LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1219 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
TSRA POTENTIAL HIGH AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FIRST 6 TO 9
HOURS OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
HAIL AND SHIFTING WINDS. WILL HANDLE ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
AMENDMENTS WITH THE EXPECTED LINE OF TSRA NOT YET FORMED. COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MOST OF THE
TERMINALS TOMORROW MORNING...BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS. MVFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS FOLLOWING THE FIRST FRONT BEFORE
THEY LIFT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
MORNING STORMS HAVE BEHAVED ABOUT AS EXPECTED...WITH SPORADIC HAIL
AND EVEN A DAMAGING WIND REPORT. EXCEPT IN A COUPLE OF STORMS...THE
OVERALL INTENSITY TREND HAS BEEN DOWN SINCE SUNRISE. HRRR HANDLING
THIS QUITE WELL.
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
THIS TIME...EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO ABOUT OKC AND
INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY CONTINUES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...ESPECIALLY IN
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THAT HAVE
NOT SEEN ANY STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS CURRENTLY RELATIVELY LOW
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER SYSTEM JUST EAST OF
THE ROCKIES MOVES CLOSER. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD LEAD
TO A LINEAR STORM MODE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS. 0-3KM SHEAR VECTORS ARE PERPENDICULAR TO THE
EXPECTED SQUALL LINE MOVEMENT...BUT THE MAGNITUDES ARE RELATIVELY
WEAK...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR LEADING EDGE
TORNADOES. THE THREAT WILL DEFINITELY NOT BE ZERO THOUGH.
THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS SHOULD CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY AN HOUR
OR TWO AFTER SUNSET...IF NOT BY SUNSET IF THE HRRR TIMING
VERIFIES. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO SEE
THE LINE OF STORMS BEFORE SUNSET...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
NOT AFFECT THE LINES INTENSITY. HAVE INCREASED THE CONDITIONAL
SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
PRODUCTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UPDATED THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON TO KEEP UP WITH THE RADAR TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
PRETTY COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST TODAY...WITH LOW CIGS AND
TSRA TO CONTEND WITH. THE MORNING STORMS ARE LIKELY DONE AFFECT
THE TAF SITES...SO THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE AFTERNOON. USED THE
LATEST HRRR DATA COMBINED WITH PREV FORECAST TO HONE IN ON THE
SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW OF BEST OPPORTUNITY AT EACH TAF SITE. TSRA
SHOULD CLEAR ALL OF THE TERMINALS BY ABOUT 03Z THIS EVENING. AS
FOR THE LOW CLOUDS...THERE IS SOME MVFR STRATUS AT KFSM AND THIS
COULD MOVE INTO KMLC LATER. THE RUC/NAM MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST
LOW CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT
INITIALLY...AND THEN GRADUALLY CLEAR THINGS OUT OVER EASTERN OK
TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST.
LACY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND WITHIN STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET AXIS THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH A THREAT OF MARGINAL WIND GUSTS AND HAIL BUT
SEVERE PROBABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LOW WITH THE INITIAL ACTIVITY.
APPEARS NOW THAT THIS SHOULD MOVE OFF FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER LARGE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT
CURRENTLY LIES FROM TX PANHANDLE TO NE KANSAS. UPPER WAVE
EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE
SHEAR AS WELL...LEADING TO RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT LATER TODAY. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
AND FAVOR LINEAR STORM MODE...HOWEVER SOME INITIAL ALBEIT SHORT-
LIVED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT SEEMS PROBABLE. THUS ALL MODES OF
SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH STORMS ENDING ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS BEFORE 06Z. DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER GREAT LAKES REGION FRI/SAT WILL
HELP BRING A SECOND STRONGER SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS...
ESPECIALLY BY SAT MORNING WHEN MANY AREAS WILL SEE UPPER 30S AND
LOW 40S. NICE WEEKEND WILL FOLLOW WITH A STRONG WARM UP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS QUICKLY RETURN FROM THE SOUTH.
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH MONDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
VERY LIMITED AT THAT TIME AND HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY MID WEEK WITH MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
WHAT WE SAW THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
353 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DRIVEN BY WAA
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH. A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM
NORTHERN MISSOURI TO SOUTH TEXAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FLOW
IS SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PULLING UP WARM...
MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE CREATED A BROAD RANGE OF TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH. AS OF 3PM...MEMPHIS WAS AT 90 DEGREES DUE
TO A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER...WHEREAS OXFORD MISSISSIPPI WAS ONLY
AT 73 DEGREES DUE TO A NEARBY THUNDERSTORM. DEWPOINTS ARE PEAKING
IN THE LOW 70S AREA WIDE.
STORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGAN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FURTHER WEST
IN NW AR...EASTERN OK AND SOUTHERN MO. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST INTO A MORE UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE REDUCED CAPE VALUES TO BETWEEN
800-1500 J/KG AS THE FRONT NEARS...EXCEPT THE NAM WHICH DEPICTS
CAPE VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG OVER NW MISSISSIPPI. 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE NEAR 40 KTS AREA WIDE WITH 0-3 KM
LAPSE RATES AS STEEP AS 5.5 C/KM. INCREASING CLOUD COVER DUE TO
WAA WILL SERVE AS A HINDRANCE TO SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT. THE GFS
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WAA SHOWERS AND STORMS AND NOT
CLEARING OUT BEFORE THE FRONT APPROACHES...WHILE THE NAM...
HRRR...AND EURO CLEAR OUT DURING THE EVENING.
STORMS WILL BECOME COLD POOL DOMINANT AND BEGIN TO RACE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES OUR REGION. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SEVERE WINDS DUE TO
THEIR LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE A SECONDARY
THREAT DUE TO SIGNIFICANT BUOYANCY WITHIN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONES
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH NORTHEAST ARKANSAS BY 7 PM...THE MS RIVER BETWEEN 11PM
AND 1 AM... AND OUT OF OUR COVERAGE AREA BY 5 AM. LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A SECONDARY REINFORCING FRONT TRAILS
THE LEADING ONE.
COOLER DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE MIDSOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WILL DIVE INTO THE 40S AS NW FLOW INCREASES
BRINGING EVEN COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. WE WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH 70 DEGREES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON THE TIMING BUT BOTH THE GFS
AND EURO AGREE ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS MONDAY EVENING.
JPM3
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
PRIMARY CONCERNS REMAIN AFTERNOON SCT TSRA... AND SQUALL LINE
ARRIVAL AT MEM DURING THE EVENING ARRIVAL PUSH.
1745Z RADAR SHOWED SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH.
AIRMASS WAS VERY MOIST AND WEAKLY-CAPPED. THERE WAS LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF DYNAMIC FORCING IN THE WAY OF FRONTS OR ELEVATED TROFS TO
ORGANIZE AFTERNOON TSRA. NONETHELESS...EXPECT CURRENT ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE...WITH SOME INCREASES IN COVERAGE LIKELY. TSRA POTENTIAL
SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 22Z... WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.
NAM AND HRRR MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF
STRONG MIDLEVEL TROF AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. TSRA POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE AT MEM AROUND 03Z...WITH PEAK TSRA CHANCES IN THE 04Z TO
05Z TIME FRAME. NAM MODEL INDICATES TSRA WILL OUTRUN THE COLD
FRONT...PERHAPS ALONG AND BEHIND A LEADING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AIRMASS
SHOULD STABILIZE LIMITING TS POTENTIAL AFTER 07Z...THOUGH SHRA
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. EVENTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR AT
MEM AROUND 12Z...TUP AT 16Z.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1251 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/
UPDATE...
IT IS A WARM...MUGGY EARLY OCTOBER DAY THROUGHOUT THE REGION. A
CLUSTER OF WEAK THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI INTO WEST TENNESSEE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
PULL A WARM...MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY HOLDING TEMPERATURES BELOW
90 DEGREES. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING OF A LINE OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED AT THIS POINT.
JPM3
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/
UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/
A TRICKY SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM KANSAS CITY MISSOURI TO
NEAR AMARILLO TEXAS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. DEWPOINTS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S BUT SHOULD JUMP INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS ARE RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
MODELS INDICATE THE CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN
6AM-9AM. LATEST HRRR SHOWS SHOWERS SHOULD START POPPING ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI BY 8 AM. BY 11AM-1PM...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
GFS..NAM...AND ECMWF SEEM TO FALL IN LINE IN WHAT THE HRRR IS
SHOWING THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
FROM MID-MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY HINDER ANY THUNDERSTORMS FROM
BECOMING STRONG OR SEVERE AT LEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
ALL THE CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...HAVE KNOCKED DOWN
HIGHS TODAY A TAD. DON/T REALLY SEE ANY LOCATION HITTING 90 TODAY.
HIGHS SHOULD STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
SQUALL LINE IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND LATEST HRRR SHOWS IT STRETCHING FROM TULSA
OKLAHOMA TO NEAR ABILENE TEXAS AROUND 2 PM. THE LINE WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THE LINE WILL LIKELY OUTRACE THE FRONT BY THE EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE MIDSOUTH...IT MAY ENCOUNTER AN
ATMOSPHERE AT LEAST SLIGHT WORKED OVER FROM CONVECTION THAT WILL
OCCUR TODAY AND NOT AS UNSTABLE AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT A FEW DAYS
AGO DUE TO CLOUD COVER. CAPE VALUES MAY GET TO 1500 J/KG WHICH IS
STILL DECENT BUT NOT LIKE 2200 J/KG OR GREATER THAT THE NAM HAS
BEEN SHOWING. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
TIMING. LINE MAY NOT GET INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS UNTIL CLOSER TO
9-10 PM. THUS INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING FROM LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. STILL EXPECT EASTERN ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
TO SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS BUT REALLY EXPECT
LINE TO START WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES EAST ESPECIALLY ONCE IT
PUSHES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MAIN THREAT FROM THE LINE
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
SINCE TIMING IS SLOWER HAVE HAD TO UPDATE POPS FOR FRIDAY TO KEEP
THEM IN LONGER. NORTH MISSISSIPPI COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THESE BECAME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH FOR THE WEEKEND AND
WILL BRING BEAUTIFUL AUTUMN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP BACK INTO
THE 70S ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF INDICATES FRONT WILL COME THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. GFS HAS TIMING OF MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT POPS AS IS WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DON/T REALLY
EXPECT ANY COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BACK
INTO THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
PRIMARY CONCERNS REMAIN AFTERNOON SCT TSRA... AND SQUALL LINE
ARRIVAL AT MEM DURING THE EVENING ARRIVAL PUSH.
1745Z RADAR SHOWED SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH.
AIRMASS WAS VERY MOIST AND WEAKLY-CAPPED. THERE WAS LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF DYNAMIC FORCING IN THE WAY OF FRONTS OR ELEVATED TROFS TO
ORGANIZE AFTERNOON TSRA. NONETHELESS...EXPECT CURRENT ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE...WITH SOME INCREASES IN COVERAGE LIKELY. TSRA POTENTIAL
SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 22Z... WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.
NAM AND HRRR MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF
STRONG MIDLEVEL TROF AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. TSRA POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE AT MEM AROUND 03Z...WITH PEAK TSRA CHANCES IN THE 04Z TO
05Z TIME FRAME. NAM MODEL INDICATES TSRA WILL OUTRUN THE COLD
FRONT...PERHAPS ALONG AND BEHIND A LEADING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AIRMASS
SHOULD STABILIZE LIMITING TS POTENTIAL AFTER 07Z...THOUGH SHRA
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. EVENTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR AT
MEM AROUND 12Z...TUP AT 16Z.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1107 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.UPDATE...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATING EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES LATE THIS MORNING...WITH A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH NOW SWEEPING THROUGH AREAS FROM WICHITA FALLS TO
NEAR ABILENE. THE TRUE COLD FRONT REMAINS FURTHER WEST FROM VERNON
TO SWEETWATER/SNYDER AREAS PER CAA NOTED AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
THROUGH THE 60S INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. THERMODYNAMICALLY
THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING HAD A MODEST CAP WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES NOTED
BETWEEN 650-800MB. THE CAP SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT...MOISTEN AND
WEAKEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.
UNTIL THEN...A FEW SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
UNDERNEATH THE LIFTING CAPPING INVERSION FROM JUST WEST THROUGH
NORTHEAST OF THE IMMEDIATE DFW METRO AREA. THE ACTION AREA
THROUGH 19Z OR SO WILL BE ACROSS OUR OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AS THIS WILL BE WHERE THE STRONGEST
ASCENT AND BREAKING OF THE CAPPING INVERSION OCCURS WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. A FEW DISCRETE STRONG
TO SEVERE STORM WILL LIKELY FORM ON THIS FEATURE. THE COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY SPEED UP AND TAKE OVER THIS SURFACE TROUGH FROM NEAR
HAMILTON UP THROUGH DALLAS-FORT WORTH...AND TOWARD GAINESVILLE AND
SHERMAN BY MID AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS SIMULTANEOUSLY WITH THE
ARRIVE OF THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE...EXPECT A RAPID
INCREASE OF STORMS TO ZIPPER SOUTHWEST AS FAR SOUTH AS HAMILTON TO
WACO AND POSSIBLY BELL COUNTY. WITH THESE TRENDS IN MIND...HAVE
DRUG THE HIGHER CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS DOWN INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL
TEXAS AS WELL FOR THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS STILL APPEAR TO BE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
TO 70 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...THOUGH EARLY ON THE EVENT WHEN
STORMS ARE MORE DISCRETE YOU CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF TORNADO WITH
ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. HAVE HELD ONTO TRENDS FOR THE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH NO CHANGES...AS THE FRONT
AND SYSTEM MOVE PROGRESSIVELY ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER THAN EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR AND A SLIGHTLY FASTER
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT...I LOWERED HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR
WEST AND NORTHWEST AREAS TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S VERSUS
LOWER 90S.
05/
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1028 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/
HRRR AND RAP ARE NOW SHOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION BREAKING OUT
AROUND NOON IN METROPLEX AREA. COVERAGE WILL BE LOW WITH THESE
DISCRETE CELLS BUT HAVE ADDED VCTS AFTER 17Z. AS I WRITE THIS WE
HAVE ONE CELL IN DENTON COUNTY THAT NOW HAS CLOUD-CLOUD
LIGHTNING...AND ONE IN HOOD COUNTY THAT VERTICAL INTEGRATED ICE IS
SHOWING COMING CLOSE TO HAVING LIGHTNING. BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA
STILL AHEAD OF THE FRONT LASTING FROM 20Z-22Z. 84
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO
RAPIDLY MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY REACHING THE REGION...AS AIRCRAFT DATA
INDICATES LIFTING AND DYNAMIC COOLING OF THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE
PROFILE. WHERE ENOUGH MOISTURE EXISTS ALOFT...ACROSS THE NW ZONES
AND OKLAHOMA...THIS LIFT IS ALLOWING ELEVATED PARCELS TO REACH THEIR
LFC AND CONVECT. THIS SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS OR STORMS.
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW ENTERING THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND IS FORECAST
TO REACH THE NW ZONES BY MIDDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS AN HOUR OR TWO
FASTER WITH THE FRONT...BUT OVERALL THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST THINKING OF THE LAST FEW DAYS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL ENSURE A WARM MORNING AND
ONCE THE LOW STRATUS SCATTERS OUT BY MIDDAY...SUNSHINE WILL BOOST
TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S OVER THE REGION. THESE HOT TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH DYNAMIC COOLING
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CAPE REACHING 2000-2500 J/KG. WHILE A FAIRLY STRONG
INVERSION NEAR 850MB WILL CAP OFF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EARLY IN THE
DAY...THE COMBINATION OF DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL
ALL WORK TO ERODE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION OVER THE AREA.
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER
THE NW ZONES AROUND 1 PM AS THE CAP BEGINS TO BREAK. CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS IT MARCHES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES. WE
EXPECT FROPA AROUND 3 PM NEAR GAINESVILLE...5 PM NEAR DFW...AND 7PM
NEAR WACO. WHEN THE FRONT CROSSES THE I-35 CORRIDOR A SQUALL LINE
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE...WHICH MEANS THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW GAPS
IN THE LINE AT THIS TIME. A FULLY DEVELOPED AND MATURE SQUALL LINE
WILL EXIST AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS HIGHEST IN
THIS REGION. THE CAP WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES...AND ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE MORE ISOLATED
THERE. WHERE CONVECTION IS MORE ISOLATED...SUPER-CELLULAR STORM MODE
IS FAVORED...WHICH MEANS THERE IS AN ENHANCED LARGE HAIL THREAT IN
ADDITION TO A WIND THREAT. WHILE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES DO NOT
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL ROTATION...SURFACE BASED SUPERCELLS
CAN STILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN THE RIGHT MESOSCALE
CONDITIONS...BUT THIS CANNOT BE FORECAST RELIABLY AT THIS TIME RANGE.
THE FRONT AND LINE OF STORMS WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR THE REGION FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL NOT
REALLY INCREASE UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SURGE
ARRIVES. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER AND GENERALLY TOP OUT NEAR 80
IN THE NORTH AND THE MID 80S SOUTH. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN
RIGHT OVER THE CWA BY SUNRISE SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL GO CALM. WITH
DEWPOINTS BY THIS TIME IN THE 30S AND 40S...LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
SHOULD REACH THE 40S FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH LOW 50S
FOR THE DFW AREA AND THE SOUTHEAST CWA. SATURDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND
PLEASANT WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT NEAR 80...BUT WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
THE SOUTH BY SATURDAY EVENING.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND A MODERATION OF TEMPS BACK ABOVE NORMAL WILL
OCCUR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS AN OUTLIER
SOLUTION OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ON MONDAY WHICH BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT AND A CHANCE OF RAIN
TO THE AREA. THE GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS ENERGY
AND THEREFORE SHOW DRY WEATHER WITH HIGH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 90S
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S. WILL KEEP FORECAST THE DRY BUT AS A
NOD TO THE ECMWF POTENTIAL WILL NUDGE HIGH TEMPS DOWNWARD INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR NEXT WEEK INSTEAD OF THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY BOLD
FORECAST OF LOWER 90S.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 91 59 82 50 80 / 70 20 0 0 0
WACO, TX 94 58 84 49 81 / 60 40 5 0 0
PARIS, TX 90 57 78 45 76 / 80 60 0 0 0
DENTON, TX 90 54 81 43 80 / 70 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 91 56 81 43 78 / 80 30 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 92 60 82 51 80 / 80 30 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 93 59 82 48 79 / 80 50 0 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 93 61 83 49 79 / 60 60 5 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 94 60 85 50 81 / 50 50 5 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 90 54 82 44 81 / 40 10 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
84/05
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
RAIN WAS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES THE ISSUE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WAS MOVING TOWARD
WISCONSIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WERE MOVING INTO WISCONSIN FROM
IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND A COLD
FRONT WERE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...BRINGING SHOWERS INTO THE
STATE FROM MINNESOTA. THERE WERE ALSO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND SOME
THUNDER...AHEAD OF AND BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. GUIDANCE WAS
SHOWING QPF INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MESOSCALE HRRR FROM 16Z
HAD THE RAIN THAT WAS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH MAINLY IMPACTING
AREAS FROM THE FOX VALLEY EAST TO THE LAKE AS THE RAIN TO THE WEST
MOVES INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING.
LIGHTNING DETECTION HAD SOME CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES ALONG THE
EASTERN PART OF THE MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER...WHERE LOCAL
MESOANALYSIS GRAPHICS SHOWED RATHER LOW MUCAPE WITH AROUND ZERO
CIN. OTHER LOCATIONS IN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH HIGHER
MUCAPE AND LITTLE OR NO CIN...DID NOT HAVE ANY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING DETECTED WITH IT.
HAVE GONE WITH INCREASING POPS FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TONIGHT AS THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THE
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE DECREASING POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD. DID MENTION
A CHANCE FOR THUNDER LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT THINKING IT
SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS.
THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALONG WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING UP MUCH
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY IF THEY MANAGE TO WARM AT ALL. SEEMS A
LITTLE EARLY IN THE SEASON FOR FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
BUT IT IS PAST THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX AND THE COLD ADVECTION IS
STRONG. HAVE NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES GOING THROUGH MID
MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THE REST OF THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
PCPN TRENDS AND TYPE FOR THE WEEKEND...AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.
A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL WI AND THE SOUTHERN
FOX VALLEY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS MOVG INTO NC/C WI
LATE FRIDAY EVG...AND PROGRESSING TO JUST NW OF THE FOX VALLEY BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW AND FRONT WILL EXIT SATURDAY
MORNING...CAUSING SHOWERS TO DECREASE OVER EASTERN WI. PCPN TYPE
WILL PROBABLY BE MIXED RAIN/SNOW OVER ABOUT THE SW THIRD OF THE
CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...WHERE MODELS SHOW THE COLDEST POCKET OF AIR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS
ANTICIPATED. A WEAK THERMAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP PCPN ALL
RAIN OVER THE FAR NORTH.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NC WI SAT AFT/NGT...
WHERE SCT LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THE AIR MASS WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT NGT.
NW FLOW AND ASSOCIATED COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
NIGHT...AS A SHARP UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH. WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...POPS WILL ONLY BE IN
THE CHC CATEGORY.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MIDWEEK...WITH A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
CIGS WERE MVFR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AT MIDDAY. THE
EXCEPTIONS WERE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE BAY...AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 8. VSBYS WERE VFR IN MUCH OF CENTRAL AND PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT MAINLY MVFR ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA IN
HZ OR BR. THERE WERE A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO MANITOWOC COUNTY AT
MIDDAY...BUT THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS WAS IN IOWA AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND HEADED TOWARD THE AREA. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING NORTHEAST. ONCE THE SHOWERS ARRIVE VSBYS MAY START OUT
MVFR...WITH VFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES...BUT CIGS AND VSBYS
SHOULD BECOME IFR IN RAIN DURING THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CHANCES WERE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD THEM
TO THE TAFS. AS THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT MAKE THEIR WAY TO THE
EAST CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE A BIT AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
INCREASE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
302 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING ALONG BOTH THE WEST AND EAST COASTS OF NORTH AMERICA
AND LONG WAVE TROUGHING DEVELOPING IN-BETWEEN. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
PORTION OF THIS LONG WAVE TROUGH FEATURES A POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE THE NORTHERN STREAM CONSISTED OF A
TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WAS PRESENT ALONG THE MN/SD BORDER. DPVA AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAS SUPPORTED A BAND OF SHOWERS FROM NW IA
INTO CENTRAL AND NE MN. AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE...A
STREAM OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS HELPED SPREAD 1.5-2 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER THROUGH MO...IL AND NOW APPROACHING SOUTHERN WI.
THIS MOISTURE...THE TRANSPORT...DPVA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE AND 1000-2000 J/KG MUCAPE ACCOMPANYING THE HIGHER MOISTURE
HAS SUPPORTED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...SOME HAVE BEGUN TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST AREA
SITS IN A MASS OF LOW STRATUS...AIDED BY BEING IN A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE. TO THE WEST...THOUGH...A
WEDGE OF CLEAR SKIES EXISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...AHEAD OF A
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE TROUGH OVER SASKATCHEAWN AND MONTANA
REMAINS PROGGED TO DIG THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. AND MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. BY 00Z SAT...MOST MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LOW
SITUATED RIGHT ON TOP OF LSE. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE
MOIST FLOW REGIME CURRENTLY SPREADING NORTH TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...IT SHOULD
BRING AN AIRMASS IN MORE SIMILAR TO LATE OCTOBER/EARLY NOVEMBER.
FOR TONIGHT...MUCH OF THE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS PROGGED TO
STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AND INSTABILITY ACCOMPANYING IT AWAY.
HOWEVER...WE STILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH THE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE
MN/SD BORDER HEADING EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. DPVA FROM THE SHORTWAVE
INTERACTING WITH 1-1.5 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AHEAD OF IT...ALONG
WITH SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD HELP BRING SHOWERS TO MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE RAIN IN
THE LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INTESITY...GIVEN THE UNSTABLE AIR
STAYING AWAY FROM THE AREA. CANT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL GIVEN PRESENCE OF WEAK INSTABILITY PROGGED. THERE HAS BEEN A
TREND FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO GET OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA QUICKER
IN 02.06Z/02.12Z GUIDANCE...SO HAVE ADJUSTED CHANCES TOWARDS A DRIER
OVERNIGHT. SKIES COULD CLEAR OUT FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS THE
CURRENT WEDGE OF CLEARING IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVES IN.
ON FRIDAY...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
IN...SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOSTLY A SUBSIDENT REGIME IN PLACE. THIS WILL
HELP KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY. HOWEVER...AS WE APPROACH
00Z SAT...ANOTHER BAND OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW THAT FORMS COULD BEGIN TO
APPROACH FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INCLUDED
20 PERCENT CHANCES JUST IN CASE. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ARE GOING TO
BE THE BIG DEAL FOR FRIDAY...THOUGH. A SUSTAINED 30-40 KT 925MB
NORTHWEST WIND WILL HELP DRIVE 925MB TEMPS DOWN FROM 8-12C AT 09Z
FRI TO 3-6C BY 18Z FRI...AND PERHAPS AS LOW AS 2C BY 00Z SAT.
THUS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD EITHER HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH
THE DAY. MANY LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY WITH VALLEY AREAS STANDING THE BEST CHANCE TO GET ABOVE
50.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
A POTENT AND FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING WITH IT SOME OF THE CHILLIEST AIR OF THE
THE FALL SO FAR. PRECIPITATION SHOULD PUSH INTO NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE EVENING THEN SWINGING ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO START OUT AS LIGHT
RAIN BUT WILL THEN SWITCH OVER TO A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. IN FACT..THE SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
ACCUMULATE A SLUSHY 1/2 INCH OR SO ON ELEVATED SURFACES AWAY FROM
VALLEY LOCATIONS. IF THIS SNOWFALL WOULD OCCUR IT WOULD BE THE 4TH
EARLIEST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR ROCHESTER...AND IF SNOW IS
MEASURED AT LA CROSSE IT WOULD BE THE 3RD EARLIEST. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. WE WILL SEE THE WINDS SWITCH TO
NORTHWEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE. THE COMBINATION OF THE
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH... AND
FALLING SNOW COULD CAUSE SOME BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SO WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL. IT WILL BE CHILLY
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY WILL BE A RATHER RAW DAY OVER THE
REGION...AT LEAST COMPARED TO WHERE WE WERE LAST WEEKEND. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES
WON/T MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THOSE
WITH COLD SENSITIVE VEGETATION SHOULD TAKE THE PROPER PRECAUTIONS
TO PROTECT IT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. IN
FACT...SOME LOCATIONS OVER CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL
LIKELY SEE A FREEZE OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES OVER THESE
AREAS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S...PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT.
COOL NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVER
CENTRAL ONTARIO WITH A DEEP TROUGH PERSISTING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. SOME RELIEF FROM THE COOL
WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND ZONAL FLOW SETS UP. HIGHS SHOULD
REBOUND INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS STILL SIT AT RST AS DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN
SLOW AT MIXING OUT THE FOG PRESENT THERE. ANTICIPATING SOME SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES TO WORK ON THE FOG AND
STRATUS. SHOWERS MOVING IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON COULD HELP TO
IMPROVE VISIBILITY SOME...THOUGH. AT LSE...VISIBILITIES ARE
ALREADY VFR WITH CEILINGS FLIRTING WITH MVFR. ANTICIPATING
CEILINGS THERE TO RISE FULLY TO MVFR BY 20Z...EVEN WITH SHOWERS
MOVING IN. A FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO OCCUR AROUND 00Z...WHICH
PRESSURES RISING IN ITS WAKE MAY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF NORTHWEST 20
KT GUSTS THIS EVENING. CEILINGS APPEAR TO HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
EVENING...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A RISE DUE TO THE NORTHWEST WIND.
A BETTER SHOT FOR RISING CEILINGS COMES AFTER 06Z AS A WEDGE OF
CLEARING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVES IN. HAVE TRIED TO TIME
THAT CLEARING IN THE TAF...BUT MAY NEED SOME ADJUSTMENT IN LATER
FORECASTS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES
AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE PLUS COLD
AIR FLOWING IN SHOULD HELP KICK UP THE NORTHWEST WINDS TO 10 TO 20
KT...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT BY MID-DAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
LOOKS LIKELY TOO IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH DAYTIME MIXING
INCREASING THE CEILING THROUGH THE MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1228 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR SOUTHEAST MN AND BUFFALO
COUNTY IN WISCONSIN AS CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO IMPROVE THIS
MORNING. SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION CONTINUING
THROUGH NOON AND WITH TROUGH AXIS RIGHT THROUGH THE
REGION...LITTLE MIXING EXPECTED TO HELP BREAK THINGS UP.
FOR NORTHEAST IOWA...OBSERVATIONS AND CALLS TO PARTNER GROUPS
INDICATE THAT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SUCH THAT THE ADVISORY CAN
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
IMMEDIATE CONCERNS INCLUDE FOG THIS MORNING AND INCOMING RAIN.
SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING HAS A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING N-S
ACROSS MN/IA. WEAKLY CONVERGENT AND VERY DAMP LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
HAS LED TO SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHEAST MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. AS A RESULT...A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM.
OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A DEEPENING
LONG WAVE BASICALLY ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS WAS TAKING PLACE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE.
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS/MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION. OVER THE LOCAL AR X FORECAST AREA...BESIDES THE
FOG...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO THE
LOWER 60S.
FOR TODAY...WILL BE WATCHING THE LOW OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE LIFT
NORTHEAST IN MO BY NOON AND NORTHERN IL BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AS
THIS OCCURS...850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALL COMBINE FORCES TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA... BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE 60S
TO THE LOWER 70S.
FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
WI. THIS PUTS ARX FORECAST AREA UNDER FAIRLY STRONG 850-500MB
FRONTOGENETIC BAND IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
DRIVE WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY RANGING FROM
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH. THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...PLAN ON RAIN TAPERING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW PULLS INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 40S
TO AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PULLING INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. PLAN ON
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35
MPH. PV-ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING MID-LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO
PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
COLDER TEMPERATURES/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS/RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALL
COMBINE FOR A PRETTY RAW DAY.
AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW ROTATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...LOOKING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO RESULT. AS TEMPERATURES
COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S LATER IN THE NIGHT...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN AT TIMES. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER IN COLD CYCLONIC FLOW. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER RAW AUTUMN DAY ON
TAP AS HIGHS ONLY TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S. CONTINUED COLD
AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA.
LONG WAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LOOKS TO MAKE PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW FILLS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO CANADA WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S/FEW LOWER 60S TUESDAY...AND IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS STILL SIT AT RST AS DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN
SLOW AT MIXING OUT THE FOG PRESENT THERE. ANTICIPATING SOME SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES TO WORK ON THE FOG AND
STRATUS. SHOWERS MOVING IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON COULD HELP TO
IMPROVE VISIBILITY SOME...THOUGH. AT LSE...VISIBILITIES ARE
ALREADY VFR WITH CEILINGS FLIRTING WITH MVFR. ANTICIPATING
CEILINGS THERE TO RISE FULLY TO MVFR BY 20Z...EVEN WITH SHOWERS
MOVING IN. A FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO OCCUR AROUND 00Z...WHICH
PRESSURES RISING IN ITS WAKE MAY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF NORTHWEST 20
KT GUSTS THIS EVENING. CEILINGS APPEAR TO HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
EVENING...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A RISE DUE TO THE NORTHWEST WIND.
A BETTER SHOT FOR RISING CEILINGS COMES AFTER 06Z AS A WEDGE OF
CLEARING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVES IN. HAVE TRIED TO TIME
THAT CLEARING IN THE TAF...BUT MAY NEED SOME ADJUSTMENT IN LATER
FORECASTS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES
AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE PLUS COLD
AIR FLOWING IN SHOULD HELP KICK UP THE NORTHWEST WINDS TO 10 TO 20
KT...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT BY MID-DAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
LOOKS LIKELY TOO IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH DAYTIME MIXING
INCREASING THE CEILING THROUGH THE MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZT
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...AJ