Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/01/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO
SEA WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS NEXT SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH. SOUNDINGS HAVE SHOWN ALL DAY A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS. EVEN THOUGH THE
RADAR SHOWS SOME PRECIPITATION MOST OF IT WILL BE VIRGA. HOWEVER
THE RAP AND HRRR BRING IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION (UNDER .05
INCHES) THIS EVENING ACROSS DELMARVA AND SOUTH NJ. DID INCLUDE THE
THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER FOR THESE AREAS. KEPT MANY
WEATHER ELEMENTS INCLUDING LOWS NEAR THE MET/MAV. THE MAV HAS BEEN
TO DRY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALL DAY AND DID NOT INCORPORATE THIS SET
FOR DEWPOINTS. WE MAY SEE SOME CLEARING AS WELL BY SUNRISE PERHAPS
ALLOWING FOR A FEW HOUR WINDOW FOR THE FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE QUICKLY ON ITS HEALS WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL SUPPORT MAY ALLOW FOR
THE GENERATION OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON FOCUSED NW
OF PHL. FOR TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE MAV/MET
GUIDANCE SETS. ECMWF 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD YIELD TO SURFACE
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80`S FOR PHL. HOWEVER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS KEPT HIGHS IN THE 70`S ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST FROM 12 HOURS
AGO. SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD BUT AMOUNTS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE ON THE RELATIVELY LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES
FOR THE TIME PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, THEN TRENDING TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.
RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING WITH NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN. HIGHEST POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE ON MONDAY, ONCE AGAIN BRINGING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.
USE WPC GUIDANCE PREDOMINATELY FOR DAYS 4 THOUGH 7. FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO THU, USED A 50/50 BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADJUSTED GFS
MAV MOS
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
HIGH LEVEL VFR CLOUDS AOA 15,000 FEET CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE TO SOUTH. THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS OFFSHORE KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION TO A ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE, WITH ACY/MIV HAVING THE BEST CHANCE. DRY
TAFS. OVERNIGHT, SOME SCATTERED LOWER VFR CLOUDS AROUND 4,000 FEET
MAY DEVELOP. CURRENTLY IS IT MORE LIKELY THAT THE HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PREVENT THE FORMATION OF LOWER CLOUDS OR FOG, EXCEPT AT
RDG AND MIV WHICH TYPICALLY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE FOG. ANY FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z TUESDAY LEAVING SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS AOA 4,000
FEET, SO ANOTHER VFR DAY TUESDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT
RDG AND ABE AFTER THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD WHICH CURRENTLY RUNS TILL
18Z TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.
THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.
FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS THIS EVENING ARE AROUND TWO FEET ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL. TOMORROW WE WILL GRADUALLY SEE
SEAS BUILD AND WINDS INCREASE OUT OF NORTHEAST. SEAS MAY REACH FOUR
FEET TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS AS WELL.
CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THIS PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF
ON ISSUING ANY FORMAL HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS
CONDITIONS WILL JUST MEET LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS
NOT YET HIGH.
THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.
FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.
SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE,
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...GAINES/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GAINES/HEAVENER
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER
MARINE...GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1000 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
DISCUSSION...
LIGHT N/NW H100-H70 FLOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL PUSH A WEAK
FRONTAL TROF FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO JUST S OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
OVERNIGHT. N/NE WINDS ALREADY IMPINGING ON THE COAST N OF CAPE
CANAVERAL AS EVIDENCED BY SHRA MOTION OFF THE COAST OVER THE PAST
FEW HRS.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAND OF H85-H50 VORTICITY PUSHING
ONSHORE OVER TAMPA BAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR
LINGERING SHRA ACTIVITY OVER THE SRN CWA THRU MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...
UPR LVLS ARE CONVERGENT AS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA IS UNDER THE
DESCENDING RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF A WEAK H30-H20 JET STREAK...WHILE THE
LIGHT NRLY FLOW PUSHES WEAK LAPSE RATES ACRS THE CWA: H85-H70
READINGS ARE ALREADY BLO 5.0C/KM WHILE H70-H50 READINGS BLO 5.5C/KM
WERE PUSHING INTO THE SPACE COAST BY LATE EVNG. EVNG RAOBS WERE
DEPICTING THIS DRY AIR AS WELL WITH A NOTEWORTHY SLUG OF DRY AIR ABV
H60 NOTED ON BOTH KJAX/KTAE SOUNDINGS.
WILL SHOULD ONTO SLGT CHC POPS OVER ARND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION
THRU MIDNIGHT...ALSO SLGT CHC ALONG THE COAST FROM THE CAPE NWD AS
THE DVLPG N/NE FLOW WILL PUSH ISOLD SHRAS ONSHORE. IN ADDITION...THE
FLOOD WATCH HAS EXPIRED...HEADLINES WILL BE REMOVED.
&&
.AVIATION...
THRU 01/08Z...PREVAILING VFR ALL SITES...SLGT CHC OF BRIEF MVFR
SHRAS BTWN KOMN-KTIX...W/SE SFC WNDS ARND 5KTS BCMG LGT/VRBL. BTWN
01/08Z-01/14Z...AREAS IFR/LCL LIFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS N OF KISM-KTIX IN
STRATUS/BR. BTWN 01/14Z-01/18Z...W/NW SFC WNDS 5-10KTS BCMG E/NE...
CHC MVFR SHRAS/SLGT CHC IFR TSRAS ALL SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT N/NE BREEZE DVLPG OVERNIGHT FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NWD AS A
WEAK FRONTAL TROF PUSHES INTO THE LCL ATLC. S OF THE INLET...A LIGHT
TO GENTLE W/SW BREEZE WILL PREVAIL. SEAS AOB 2FT NEARSHORE...2-3FT
OFFSHORE....DOMINANT PDS ARND 8SEC. ISOLD SHRAS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RECENT HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SHINGLE CREEK BASIN HAS CAUSED THE CREEK
AT CAMPBELL TO RISE TO ACTION STAGE THIS EVENING. GAUGE INFORMATION
FROM A MONITORING STATION UPSTREAM SUGGESTS THE CREEK WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY RISE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE LEVELING OFF
WITHIN ACTION STAGE.
ST JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR REMAINS SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT ASTOR
AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN MINOR FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. RIVER LEVELS ALSO RISING NEAR DELAND AND LAKE HARNEY
AND THESE SITES MAY APPROACH OR REACH ACTION STAGE LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
FORECAST/AVIATION...BRAGAW
RADAR/IMPACT WX.....PENDERGRAST
HYDROLOGY...........ULRICH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
248 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
.AVIATION...
THE GULF COAST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZES CONTINUE TO PUSH
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROJECTED TO
DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN ACROSS THE
EAST COAST AREAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PERIOD.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF SITE OPF.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/
UPDATE...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW UP TO 800MB...AND THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST STATES. AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH PWATS INCREASING FROM 1.8 INCHES THIS MORNING TO
2.2-2.4 INCHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL
PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ALONG IT OR PUSH INTO THE BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST. STORMS WILL THEN
PUSH SLOWLY TOWARDS THE EAST COAST IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF RUNS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY...AND THE LATEST
RUNS ARE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE STORMS MOVING EAST AND
QUICKLY INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOKS
TO BE ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. BUMPED UP POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THE EAST COAST
METROS AND ADDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING TO THE ZFP.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN DISSIPATE OVER HEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK-WEEK. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MARKED PATTERN SHIFT INITIATES TODAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE SE CONUS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURES AXIS
CROSSING MS/AL EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL CROSS GA AND N FL
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOPRES IS JUST
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERNMOST GULF...AND IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTH AND MOVE ENE NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER TODAY...WITH COLD
FRONT TRAILING TO THE WSW BEHIND IT. ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL PUSH
COPIOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH AND EASTERN FROM THE GULF ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA. EXPECT PLENTY OF CONVECTION TO
FIRE AHEAD OF THE LOPRES AND FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF CWA.
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...STEERING FLOW ALOFT HAS ALREADY TURNED
SW...AND WILL CONTINUE TRANSITIONING TO THAT DIRECTION AT LOWER
LEVELS TODAY. ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL SERVE AS FOCUS OF TSTM
INITIATION IN SOFLA...PROVIDING THE CONVERGENCE TO COMBINE WITH
THE ASCENT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH.
TSTMS SHOULD FORM OVER THE INTERIOR REGION /WEST OF SUBURBS/.
HOWEVER...THE SW WINDS ALOFT WILL CAUSE STORMS TO PROPAGATE BACK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...LEAVING HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN METRO AREAS.
EQUILIBRIUM/STORM TOP OUTFLOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NORTHERLY...ALSO
CANT RULE OUT SEA- BREEZE CONVECTION OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
SPREADING SOUTH INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY. STORMS WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCERS AND SLOW-MOVING. ANYWHERE WHERE A STORM
STALLS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE COUNTY...ESPECIALLY OVER PALM BEACH
COUNTY...COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT /PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS LAKE OKEECHOBEE/ AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE...WHICH WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND
PROGRESS. THUS...EAST COAST AND NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE
HAVE HIGHEST POPS.
IN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM...APPROACHING 90F DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND REMAINING
IN 70S OVERNIGHT. KFLL TIED DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMP
SATURDAY WITH 82F...AND HAS BROKEN SUNDAYS RECORD WITH 81F. IF AIR
DOESNT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY RAIN COOLED THERE TODAY...ANOTHER
RECORD MAY BE BROKEN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE FORECAST WITH L/V SURFACE
WIND AT ALL TERMINALS. A FEW SMALL SHRA ARE NOTED OVER THE
ATLANTIC BUT TOO FEW TO EVEN MENTION VCSH IN ANY OF THE TAFS.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH STORM MOTION TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE QUESTION IS
HOW FAST WILL THIS STEERING FLOW BECOME ESTABLISHED. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BUT WINDS ALOFT TO STEER THE STORMS WILL
NOT BE NECESSARILY STRONG SO MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE LEFT VCTS IN THE FORECAST BUT MAY
NEED TO ADD TEMPO GROUPS WITH LATER UPDATES IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.
MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE WATERS...VEERING TO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL
OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AWAY
FROM CONVECTION...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 74 90 74 / 80 60 60 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 77 91 77 / 70 50 60 20
MIAMI 90 76 91 77 / 70 40 50 10
NAPLES 88 76 90 76 / 40 20 40 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...30/KOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1019 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
.UPDATE...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW UP TO 800MB...AND THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST STATES. AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH PWATS INCREASING FROM 1.8 INCHES THIS MORNING TO
2.2-2.4 INCHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL
PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ALONG IT OR PUSH INTO THE BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST. STORMS WILL THEN
PUSH SLOWLY TOWARDS THE EAST COAST IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF RUNS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY...AND THE LATEST
RUNS ARE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE STORMS MOVING EAST AND
QUICKLY INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOKS
TO BE ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. BUMPED UP POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THE EAST COAST
METROS AND ADDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING TO THE ZFP.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN DISSIPATE OVER HEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK-WEEK. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MARKED PATTERN SHIFT INITIATES TODAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE SE CONUS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURES AXIS
CROSSING MS/AL EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL CROSS GA AND N FL
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOPRES IS JUST
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERNMOST GULF...AND IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTH AND MOVE ENE NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER TODAY...WITH COLD
FRONT TRAILING TO THE WSW BEHIND IT. ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL PUSH
COPIOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH AND EASTERN FROM THE GULF ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA. EXPECT PLENTY OF CONVECTION TO
FIRE AHEAD OF THE LOPRES AND FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF CWA.
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...STEERING FLOW ALOFT HAS ALREADY TURNED
SW...AND WILL CONTINUE TRANSITIONING TO THAT DIRECTION AT LOWER
LEVELS TODAY. ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL SERVE AS FOCUS OF TSTM
INITIATION IN SOFLA...PROVIDING THE CONVERGENCE TO COMBINE WITH
THE ASCENT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH.
TSTMS SHOULD FORM OVER THE INTERIOR REGION /WEST OF SUBURBS/.
HOWEVER...THE SW WINDS ALOFT WILL CAUSE STORMS TO PROPAGATE BACK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...LEAVING HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN METRO AREAS.
EQUILIBRIUM/STORM TOP OUTFLOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NORTHERLY...ALSO
CANT RULE OUT SEA- BREEZE CONVECTION OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
SPREADING SOUTH INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY. STORMS WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCERS AND SLOW-MOVING. ANYWHERE WHERE A STORM
STALLS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE COUNTY...ESPECIALLY OVER PALM BEACH
COUNTY...COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT /PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS LAKE OKEECHOBEE/ AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE...WHICH WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND
PROGRESS. THUS...EAST COAST AND NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE
HAVE HIGHEST POPS.
IN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM...APPROACHING 90F DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND REMAINING
IN 70S OVERNIGHT. KFLL TIED DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMP
SATURDAY WITH 82F...AND HAS BROKEN SUNDAYS RECORD WITH 81F. IF AIR
DOESNT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY RAIN COOLED THERE TODAY...ANOTHER
RECORD MAY BE BROKEN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE FORECAST WITH L/V SURFACE
WIND AT ALL TERMINALS. A FEW SMALL SHRA ARE NOTED OVER THE
ATLANTIC BUT TOO FEW TO EVEN MENTION VCSH IN ANY OF THE TAFS.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH STORM MOTION TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE QUESTION IS
HOW FAST WILL THIS STEERING FLOW BECOME ESTABLISHED. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BUT WINDS ALOFT TO STEER THE STORMS WILL
NOT BE NECESSARILY STRONG SO MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE LEFT VCTS IN THE FORECAST BUT MAY
NEED TO ADD TEMPO GROUPS WITH LATER UPDATES IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.
MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE WATERS...VEERING TO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL
OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AWAY
FROM CONVECTION...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 75 90 75 / 70 50 60 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 77 91 77 / 70 50 60 20
MIAMI 90 77 91 77 / 70 40 50 20
NAPLES 88 77 88 77 / 40 10 40 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
311 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014
...Heavy Rainfall is Possible Today in South-Central Georgia and
the Florida Big Bend...
.Near Term [Through Today]...
Heavy rain has had a difficult time materializing across most of the
area, despite a tropical airmass in place with an upper trough
approaching. The main limiting factor seems to be the convective
complexes in the Gulf, which are disrupting low-level inflow into
our forecast area. Guidance has insisted since yesterday that this
will change as the thunderstorms over the Gulf weaken, but so far
that has not happened. The HRRR has been particularly bad with this
scenario, continually over-forecasting convection in our area in the
first few hours of its forecast for most of the night. Because of
this mesoscale issue, confidence remains low on the convective
evolution and rainfall amounts across the area for the remainder of
today. As long as significant convection remains over the Gulf, most
of the area will not see heavy rain with the exception of a few
points along the coast.
That being said, satellite imagery has shown some gradual weakening
of the MCS west of Tampa, and there has been a slow uptick in the
rain and embedded convective coverage closer to our coast. The
general movement of this has been more northerly rather than
easterly as well, so perhaps things are beginning to change a
little. However, the threat seems to have diminished enough across
the northwest portions of the area to cancel the watch there. Still
do not feel comfortable canceling the entire watch just yet though
as there still appears to be a window for heavy rainfall and
training echoes across portions of the area through this afternoon.
The greatest potential appears to be across the Florida counties
near the coast, but cannot completely discount portions of south
central Georgia either. As the morning progresses, the western
portions of the watch area may be able to be cancelled early, as
well as the northern portions if convection does not develop there
by mid to late morning. At any rate, we will be mostly rid of this
system in the next 24 hours, and good riddance as it has been a
tough one to forecast.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
A shortwave upper level trough will swing northeastward through the
Appalachian mountain range, lifting the stationary surface front
currently laid out across NE FL from Cross City to Jacksonville
today and tonight, finally pushing it out of the area Tuesday.
Tonight, chances for showers and thunderstorms will be most likely
(60-70%) in south-central Georgia and the Florida Big Bend, with
lower chances (30-50%) to the west. The highest rainfall amounts
will fall during the daytime hours, but isolated areas in south
Georgia and the Big Bend (where PWATs will still be over 2") may see
heavy rainfall early in the night. Tuesday through Wednesday,
chances for showers and thunderstorms will be much lower (30% or
less), with the highest chances staying in the eastern Big Bend.
Lows tonight and Tuesday night will be in the mid to upper 70s.
Highs will be in the mid 80s Tuesday, mid-upper 80s Wednesday.
.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
After a very wet pattern over much of the near and short term
periods, we expect to have a brief break in the unsettled weather
later on Tuesday and through Wednesday, as both Sfc and upper level
ridging build in for a short time. Thereafter, showers and
thunderstorms are expected to return to the fcst in earnest on
Thursday and Friday, as the strongest cold front of the season thus
far approaches from the NW. This cold front is expected to bring a
real taste of fall to the region by Saturday and Sunday, with low
temps possibly reaching the lower to middle 50s over the interior on
Sunday morning, with much drier air also building in under the NW
flow. High temps will still be very close to climo levels, however,
generally in the lower to middle 80s on Sat and Sun. Before the
frontal passage, above normal temperatures are expected to persist,
with the warm and humid air struggling to budge.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Tuesday] Periods of rain and low cigs are expected
through most of the day with MVFR to IFR conditions. Some clearing
is expected around DHN and ECP by the end of the day as the rain
exits that area.
&&
.Marine...
A stationary front will finally exit the area Monday and Monday
night, shifting the winds from southerly to westerly then northerly,
returning back to southerly by mid week. Wind speeds will remain
below headline criteria until early in the weekend, when another
frontal passage may increase winds to cautionary levels.
&&
.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few
days.
&&
.Hydrology...
We have started to trim back the flash flood watch from northwest to
southeast, and additional trimming is likely through the day today
as convection gradually moves to the east. The heavy rain threat is
isolated, so main stem river flooding is unlikely. Isolated spots
within the watch area could still pick up 4-6" of rain in a short
period of time, but most locations will not see that much.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 80 69 86 68 89 / 90 60 20 10 20
Panama City 83 70 86 71 87 / 90 40 20 10 20
Dothan 80 66 86 65 88 / 80 40 10 10 10
Albany 78 66 85 65 87 / 90 50 10 10 10
Valdosta 81 67 85 65 87 / 90 70 20 10 20
Cross City 83 70 86 67 88 / 90 60 30 20 20
Apalachicola 82 71 84 71 85 / 90 50 20 20 20
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Calhoun-Coastal Bay-
Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal
Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Inland Bay-
Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-
Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison.
GA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Baker-Ben Hill-
Berrien-Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Grady-Irwin-
Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Mitchell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
747 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INPUT PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR LOCATIONS
EAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO GOVE KANSAS. LIGHT
WINDS...MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT AND COOLER AIR ADVECTING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT. SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE DENSE
FOG IS POSSIBLE SO WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHER PLAINS WITH CLOSED CENTER OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO AND COULD BE IN LINE TO IMPACT OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM JUST EAST OF KMCK SOUTH
ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALON THE CO/KS STATE LINE.
WITH FRONT STILL OVER PAR OF THE CWA I CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA
WHERE ML CAPE 500-1500 J/KG IS LINGERING. SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED
ANY CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT SO FAR...AND GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY THREAT
REMAINING EAST AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED BY NAM TO PASS OVER CWA TONIGHT
COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER THIS SHOULDNT AMOUNT TO MUCH CONSIDERING LIMITED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. OTHER GUIDANCE IS FAVORING DRY CONDITIONS...SO
DECIDED TO JUST KEEP MINIMAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE 06-12Z
PERIOD. NAM/RAP/SREF HINTING AT STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN
CWA WITH MOISTURE POOLING NEAR FRONTAL ZONE. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE
IN THIS AS MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND COULD LIMIT
FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHIFTING FRONT FURTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY...LIMITING
SEVERE POTENTIAL AND BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. CURRENTLY THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TO BE AS FORCING
INCREASES FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. I
LIMITED 30-40 POPS TO THE LATE AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTHWEST. I KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
DUE TO BUILDING INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST WEAK FORCING BEHIND FRONTAL
ZONE...THOUGH I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF WE REMAIN DRY UNTIL MAIN
PUSH COMES IN LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH...AS A RESULT THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH AS WELL. AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY IN OUR AREA WILL ALMOST ALL BE ELEVATED WITH ONLY A
SMALL AREA OF WEAK SBCAPE IN THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE EVENING.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL DURING THE EVENING HOURS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS AS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DIMINISHES...POSSIBLY LINGERING IN EASTERN
AREAS INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING BY MID DAY THURSDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A LARGE RIDGE WHICH WILL SLOWLY BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AFTER A BRIEF
COOL DOWN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
ONLY CAUSE FOR CONCERN IS SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOG AROUND KMCK. MOST GUIDANCE HINTS THAT
FOG REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF TERMINAL BUT IT IS A LITTLE CLOSE FOR
COMFORT. PLACED A 6SM BR/SCT015 GROUP AS A HEDGE FOR NOW AND WILL
REFINE THIS GROUP AT THE 06Z RUN. OTHER THAN THAT...EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH PERIODS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
521 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHER PLAINS WITH CLOSED CENTER OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO AND COULD BE IN LINE TO IMPACT OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM JUST EAST OF KMCK SOUTH
ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALON THE CO/KS STATE LINE.
WITH FRONT STILL OVER PAR OF THE CWA I CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA
WHERE ML CAPE 500-1500 J/KG IS LINGERING. SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED
ANY CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT SO FAR...AND GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY THREAT
REMAINING EAST AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED BY NAM TO PASS OVER CWA TONIGHT
COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER THIS SHOULDNT AMOUNT TO MUCH CONSIDERING LIMITED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. OTHER GUIDANCE IS FAVORING DRY CONDITIONS...SO
DECIDED TO JUST KEEP MINIMAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE 06-12Z
PERIOD. NAM/RAP/SREF HINTING AT STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN
CWA WITH MOISTURE POOLING NEAR FRONTAL ZONE. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE
IN THIS AS MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND COULD LIMIT
FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHIFTING FRONT FURTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY...LIMITING
SEVERE POTENTIAL AND BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. CURRENTLY THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TO BE AS FORCING
INCREASES FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. I
LIMITED 30-40 POPS TO THE LATE AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTHWEST. I KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
DUE TO BUILDING INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST WEAK FORCING BEHIND FRONTAL
ZONE...THOUGH I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF WE REMAIN DRY UNTIL MAIN
PUSH COMES IN LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH...AS A RESULT THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH AS WELL. AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY IN OUR AREA WILL ALMOST ALL BE ELEVATED WITH ONLY A
SMALL AREA OF WEAK SBCAPE IN THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE EVENING.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL DURING THE EVENING HOURS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS AS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DIMINISHES...POSSIBLY LINGERING IN EASTERN
AREAS INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING BY MID DAY THURSDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A LARGE RIDGE WHICH WILL SLOWLY BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AFTER A BRIEF
COOL DOWN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
ONLY CAUSE FOR CONCERN IS SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOG AROUND KMCK. MOST GUIDANCE HINTS THAT
FOG REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF TERMINAL BUT IT IS A LITTLE CLOSE FOR
COMFORT. PLACED A 6SM BR/SCT015 GROUP AS A HEDGE FOR NOW AND WILL
REFINE THIS GROUP AT THE 06Z RUN. OTHER THAN THAT...EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH PERIODS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
959 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MEANWHILE, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS
PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION. A STRONG +90KT JET
CORE IS EXITING THE TROUGH AXIS AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
ARIZONA INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. NEAR THE SURFACE, A LEE SIDE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN
COLORADO. MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO EDGE NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW, CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CA/NV BORDER, WILL EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
BY THIS AFTERNOON THEN THROUGH COLORADO THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES WESTERN KANSAS WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. TOWARDS THE SURFACE, LEE
TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO BE FELT ACROSS THE CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AROUND
PEAK HEATING AND SLOWLY TREK EASTWARD AS THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING PROGRESSES. THESE STORMS THEN MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING SPREADING ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWEST
KANSAS WHERE SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING BUT DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY THE FARTHER WEST THEY GO. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY TOMORROW
MORNING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME CLEARING IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY TOMORROW MORNING. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 80
DEGREES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 80S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
AT 12Z TUESDAY A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NEBRASKA AND A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL TO BE LOCATED ACROSS COLORADO. THIS SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET THAT WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE
PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BRIEFLY STALLS OUT
FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. GIVEN MOISTURE AND
LIFT PRESENT NEAR/EAST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH
IMPROVING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SECOND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE AT 00Z
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE AREA MORE FAVORABLE
FOR THESE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF
HIGHWAY 283. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY HAS A DECENT HANDLE
WITH THIS CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY SO WILL NOT STAY FAR FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. A FEW STORMS LATE TUESDAY MAY BE SEVERE GIVEN
00Z NAM CAPES AND 0-6KM SHEAR AT 00Z WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS AND
QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN
HAZARD.
AS THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS
TUESDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE WEDNESDAY A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.
BY 00Z THURSDAY THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST BY THE GFS TO BE
LOCATED FROM THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TO NORTHEASTERN KANSAS
KANSAS. MOISTURE, INSTABILITY AND SHEAR LATE WEDNESDAY NORTH OF
THIS FRONT FAVORS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE A MID
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE LOCATED.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL INVADE
WESTERN KANSAS BY EARLY THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. GIVEN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT
SURFACE WINDS OF UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEHIND
THIS COLD FRONT AND GIVEN THE MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS AND A 500MB COOL POOL CROSSING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES TRICKY
ON THURSDAY. JUST USING THE GFS 850MB TEMPERATURE AT 00Z FRIDAY AS
A FIRST GUESS THE HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 60S.
GIVEN THE COOLING TREND ADVERTISED IN THE 925-850MB LEVEL AND
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WILL STAY CLOSE OR UNDERCUT THE LATEST
CREXTENDEDFCST_INIT.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD AS NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO. THE STRONGER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE GARDEN
CITY AREA. 06Z NAM AND HRRR WERE BOTH GOOD AGREEMENT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY
BROKEN CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE CLOUD BASES
MAINLY BETWEEN 3500 TO 8000 FT AGL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 83 61 84 56 / 10 30 20 20
GCK 82 57 82 54 / 20 40 20 10
EHA 82 57 81 51 / 40 50 10 0
LBL 83 61 83 53 / 10 30 20 10
HYS 83 63 80 58 / 10 80 50 20
P28 86 63 85 63 / 10 30 30 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
602 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW, CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CA/NV BORDER, WILL EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
BY THIS AFTERNOON THEN THROUGH COLORADO THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES WESTERN KANSAS WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. TOWARDS THE SURFACE, LEE
TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO BE FELT ACROSS THE CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AROUND
PEAK HEATING AND SLOWLY TREK EASTWARD AS THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING PROGRESSES. THESE STORMS THEN MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING SPREADING ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWEST
KANSAS WHERE SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING BUT DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY THE FARTHER WEST THEY GO. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY TOMORROW
MORNING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME CLEARING IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY TOMORROW MORNING. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 80
DEGREES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 80S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
AT 12Z TUESDAY A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NEBRASKA AND A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL TO BE LOCATED ACROSS COLORADO. THIS SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET THAT WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE
PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BRIEFLY STALLS OUT
FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. GIVEN MOISTURE AND
LIFT PRESENT NEAR/EAST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH
IMPROVING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SECOND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE AT 00Z
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE AREA MORE FAVORABLE
FOR THESE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF
HIGHWAY 283. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY HAS A DECENT HANDLE
WITH THIS CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY SO WILL NOT STAY FAR FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. A FEW STORMS LATE TUESDAY MAY BE SEVERE GIVEN
00Z NAM CAPES AND 0-6KM SHEAR AT 00Z WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS AND
QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN
HAZARD.
AS THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS
TUESDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE WEDNESDAY A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.
BY 00Z THURSDAY THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST BY THE GFS TO BE
LOCATED FROM THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TO NORTHEASTERN KANSAS
KANSAS. MOISTURE, INSTABILITY AND SHEAR LATE WEDNESDAY NORTH OF
THIS FRONT FAVORS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE A MID
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE LOCATED.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL INVADE
WESTERN KANSAS BY EARLY THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. GIVEN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT
SURFACE WINDS OF UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEHIND
THIS COLD FRONT AND GIVEN THE MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS AND A 500MB COOL POOL CROSSING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES TRICKY
ON THURSDAY. JUST USING THE GFS 850MB TEMPERATURE AT 00Z FRIDAY AS
A FIRST GUESS THE HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 60S.
GIVEN THE COOLING TREND ADVERTISED IN THE 925-850MB LEVEL AND
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WILL STAY CLOSE OR UNDERCUT THE LATEST
CREXTENDEDFCST_INIT.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD AS NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO. THE STRONGER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE GARDEN
CITY AREA. 06Z NAM AND HRRR WERE BOTH GOOD AGREEMENT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY
BROKEN CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE CLOUD BASES
MAINLY BETWEEN 3500 TO 8000 FT AGL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 83 61 84 56 / 10 30 20 20
GCK 82 57 82 54 / 20 40 20 10
EHA 82 57 81 51 / 40 50 10 0
LBL 83 61 83 53 / 10 30 20 10
HYS 83 63 80 58 / 10 80 50 20
P28 86 63 85 63 / 10 30 30 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
137 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
FORECAST STILL PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK FOR THE DAY. SKIES HAVE BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AS A
BROAD FIELD OF CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE FORMED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SOME SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN FALLING FROM
SOME OF THESE CLOUDS. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO WE COULD SEE ISOLATED
TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS POP UP FROM TIME TO TIME AS THE WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVES PAST. ANY EXISTING SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AFTER
SUNSET...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT.
NO ZONE UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF MORNING FOG AND
AFTERNOON WORDING. OVERALL THE FORECAST STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK
SO FAR TODAY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN
POPPING UP ALONG THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS SO FAR THIS
MORNING. BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES FORMING EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. THEREFORE WILL LET THE FORECAST
RIDE AS IS CONCERNING THIS AFTERNOONS PRECIPITATION CHANCE AND AREAL
COVERAGE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 802 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
REFRESHED GRIDS TO REFLECT EARLY MORNING OBS BLENDING INTO THE LATE
MORNING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
SHOWERS FALLING FROM A HIGH CLOUD BASE WERE NEAR THE KY/VA BORDER
OVERNIGHT. THIS REGIME IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AFTER A LULL...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR
MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS HEATING LEADS TO SHALLOW
INSTABILITY. IT SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 650 MB. THIS LEVEL IS TOO
WARM FOR GLACIATION OF CLOUD TOPS...BUT ALLOWS FOR A DEEP ENOUGH
CLOUD TO PERHAPS GET SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. THESE WILL DIE
OUT WITH LOSS OF HEATING MONDAY EVENING. DURING THE NIGHT...SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WHILE SLIGHT
WARMING OCCURS IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH LITTLE OR NO CU DEVELOPMENT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
MODELS ARE STARTING TO WAVER A BIT WITH AN EXPECTED COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY...BUT OVERALL STILL IN AGREEMENT ON WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE ALSO
DIVERGING ON POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS HEADING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THUS...WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IS DEGRADED AROUND THE TIMING OF THE RAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK...THEN EXACTLY HOW COLD/CLOUDY IT WILL END UP THIS
WEEKEND.
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...SETTING UP
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A SHARP MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE...COMBINED WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD
PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. WHILE INSTABILITY
IS WEAK...FORCING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
PRODUCE A LIGHTNING STRIKE AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00Z ECMWF SUPPORTS
THE 12Z RUN WITH A FASTER SYSTEM...BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN FASTER
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH EVERYTHING EXITING EARLIER ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS HAS ALSO REMAINED SUPPORTIVE OF A SLOWER
SYSTEM...WITH MORE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ON FRIDAY. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN A LONGER PERIOD OF HIGHER POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
UNCERTAINTY. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE DECENT LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.
AS THE INITIAL FRONT DEPARTS...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SURGE OF MUCH COLDER WEATHER INTO THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A 500MB VORT MAX PUSHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THE 00Z ECMWF CUTS OFF THIS SYSTEM...WITH A MUCH SHARPER TROUGH
PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
SUPPORT MORE CLOUDS AND MUCH COOLER READINGS. MEANWHILE...THE GFS
DOES NOT CUT OFF THIS SYSTEM...AND IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE TROUGH.
GIVEN WE ARE HEADING INTO THE COLD SEASON...TENDENCY IS TO WANT TO
SUPPORT THE SHARPER TROUGH SEEN IN THE ECMWF AS THE PATTERN WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THUS...STAYING WELL BELOW
GUIDANCE ON HIGHS AND LOWS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IF
THINGS PLAY OUT AS THE ECMWF SUPPORTS...WE MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 60
ON SATURDAY WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.
AT THIS TIME...REGARDLESS WHICH SOLUTIONS PLAYS OUT...FROST APPEARS
UNLIKELY AS THE COLDER ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT MORE CLOUD COVER...AND
THE GFS SIMPLY WOULD NOT BE COLD ENOUGH. IN FACT... THE ECMWF MAY
SUPPORT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AS A VORT
MAX DROPS SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. GOING TO LEAVE THINGS
DRY FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD SOME RAIN CHANCES IF THE ECMWF
GAINS SUPPORT. BY SUNDAY...WE SHOULD SEE THE AIR MASS PERHAPS START
TO MODIFY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. A BROAD FIELD OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS CLOUDS HAS FORMED THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY ALSO
REVEALS THAT A FEW VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES HAVE ALSO
POPPED UP. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINING AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE SUN HEATS THINGS UP. THE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
QUICKLY AND BE GONE JUST AFTER SUN SET. AREAS OF MOSTLY VALLEY FOG
CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE DENSEST FOG. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...IT IS LIKELY THAT
ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT SYM WILL SEE DENSE FOG BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z
TOMORROW. THE FOG SHOULD BE GONE BY BETWEEN 10 AND 1030 AM ON TUESDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1050 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF MORNING FOG AND
AFTERNOON WORDING. OVERALL THE FORECAST STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK
SO FAR TODAY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN
POPPING UP ALONG THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS SO FAR THIS
MORNING. BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES FORMING EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. THEREFORE WILL LET THE FORECAST
RIDE AS IS CONCERNING THIS AFTERNOONS PRECIPITATION CHANCE AND AREAL
COVERAGE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 802 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
REFRESHED GRIDS TO REFLECT EARLY MORNING OBS BLENDING INTO THE LATE
MORNING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
SHOWERS FALLING FROM A HIGH CLOUD BASE WERE NEAR THE KY/VA BORDER
OVERNIGHT. THIS REGIME IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AFTER A LULL...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR
MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS HEATING LEADS TO SHALLOW
INSTABILITY. IT SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 650 MB. THIS LEVEL IS TOO
WARM FOR GLACIATION OF CLOUD TOPS...BUT ALLOWS FOR A DEEP ENOUGH
CLOUD TO PERHAPS GET SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. THESE WILL DIE
OUT WITH LOSS OF HEATING MONDAY EVENING. DURING THE NIGHT...SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WHILE SLIGHT
WARMING OCCURS IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH LITTLE OR NO CU DEVELOPMENT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
MODELS ARE STARTING TO WAVER A BIT WITH AN EXPECTED COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY...BUT OVERALL STILL IN AGREEMENT ON WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE ALSO
DIVERGING ON POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS HEADING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THUS...WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IS DEGRADED AROUND THE TIMING OF THE RAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK...THEN EXACTLY HOW COLD/CLOUDY IT WILL END UP THIS
WEEKEND.
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...SETTING UP
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A SHARP MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE...COMBINED WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD
PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. WHILE INSTABILITY
IS WEAK...FORCING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
PRODUCE A LIGHTNING STRIKE AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00Z ECMWF SUPPORTS
THE 12Z RUN WITH A FASTER SYSTEM...BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN FASTER
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH EVERYTHING EXITING EARLIER ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS HAS ALSO REMAINED SUPPORTIVE OF A SLOWER
SYSTEM...WITH MORE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ON FRIDAY. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN A LONGER PERIOD OF HIGHER POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
UNCERTAINTY. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE DECENT LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.
AS THE INITIAL FRONT DEPARTS...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SURGE OF MUCH COLDER WEATHER INTO THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A 500MB VORT MAX PUSHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THE 00Z ECMWF CUTS OFF THIS SYSTEM...WITH A MUCH SHARPER TROUGH
PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
SUPPORT MORE CLOUDS AND MUCH COOLER READINGS. MEANWHILE...THE GFS
DOES NOT CUT OFF THIS SYSTEM...AND IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE TROUGH.
GIVEN WE ARE HEADING INTO THE COLD SEASON...TENDENCY IS TO WANT TO
SUPPORT THE SHARPER TROUGH SEEN IN THE ECMWF AS THE PATTERN WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THUS...STAYING WELL BELOW
GUIDANCE ON HIGHS AND LOWS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IF
THINGS PLAY OUT AS THE ECMWF SUPPORTS...WE MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 60
ON SATURDAY WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.
AT THIS TIME...REGARDLESS WHICH SOLUTIONS PLAYS OUT...FROST APPEARS
UNLIKELY AS THE COLDER ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT MORE CLOUD COVER...AND
THE GFS SIMPLY WOULD NOT BE COLD ENOUGH. IN FACT... THE ECMWF MAY
SUPPORT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AS A VORT
MAX DROPS SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. GOING TO LEAVE THINGS
DRY FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD SOME RAIN CHANCES IF THE ECMWF
GAINS SUPPORT. BY SUNDAY...WE SHOULD SEE THE AIR MASS PERHAPS START
TO MODIFY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
THE FOG AND LOW CIGS THAT HAD BEEN PLAGUING SOME OF THE TAF SITES
THIS MORNING HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE. AT THIS
TIME...NONE OF THE TAF SITES ARE REPORTING. SME STILL HAD A CIG OF
300 FEET AT 1445Z...BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT QUICKLY BY
NOON TODAY. AFTER THAT IT LOOKS LIKE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
619 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 317 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
Main challenges for this short term forecast period will be first
period (today) temperatures and relative humidity and timing of
precipitation into the WFO PAH CWA near or after midnight going
into Thursday morning.
Short term guidance indicating a slightly cooler bias with maximum
temperatures for this afternoon high temperatures. These
temperatures are approximately 3-5 degrees cooler than surrounding
NWS forecasts. The key balance will be the combination of dry/cold air
advection and subsidence of air parcels below 850 mb. At this
time, am not inclined to go a complete 30 degree spread from
morning minimum temperatures, but at least a 27 degree Fahrenheit
temperatures spread. The 13km RAP guidance is the closest to this
solution for maximum temperatures today.
Ridging across the WFO PAH forecast will remain dominant through
at least 15z-18z (10am-1pm CDT) Wednesday, before cyclonic flow,
increased large scale, lift, differential vorticity, and
acceleration of low level moisture develop and move close to the
area. The main trough axis, near the U.S./Canadian border, near
North Dakota, will be in the process of enhancing/deepening along
the western limb of the trough, deepening the low. This will likely
slow the southeastward movement of the low until along or after
midnight going into Thursday morning. The forecast may still be
too aggressive in timing, but will keep chance PoPs going over the
northwest 1/2 of the WFO PAH CWA until at least 4 am Thursday
morning, before ramping up to match the Thursday daytime PoP
forecast in the extended part of this forecast package.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
Above average forecast confidence continues in the long term as
latest model solutions vary slightly with timing and coverage of
the upcoming weather event, but for the most part are still in the
same ball park.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase from the west on
Thursday as a storm system approaches from the central plains. As
mentioned above, models are slightly different with timing and
placement of selected parameters of this system, but right now the
best timing and coverage area-wide for showers and thunderstorms
should be Thursday night as the system actually crosses the region.
The cold front should be entering the far western portions of our
CWA around 7 PM Thursday and clearing the far southeast sections
around 7 AM Friday. Precipitation chances Friday morning rapidly
diminish from west to east as the front moves off to the east.
In the wake of the front, strong surface high pressure and northwest
flow aloft will usher in a very cool airmass which will keep things
dry and temperatures below normal through the end of the long term
period.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 619 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
With the 12z Monday issuance, kept a mention of MIFG in place for
KCGI and KPAH. Dealing with ground fog or an elevated and shallow
fog layer overnight. Attempted to deal with this feature with a
higher prevailing visibility with embedded patches of dense ground
fog. The remaining groups basically account for variance of wind
from calm to a prevailing wind direction during maximum mixing,
then back again to calm winds with the development of an inversion.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
Today and Tuesday will probably be the most ideal time period for
fire agency plans for prescribed burns. Should dry air advection
develop as advertised today, widespread minimum relative humidity
values will fall into the 23 to 33 percent range. Ten hour fuel
moisture`s have been staying above at least 9 or 10 percent which
should moderate the speed of fuel drying with tolerance levels.
Mixing heights today and Tuesday will be ideal between 11 am and 9
pm CDT, but diminish from the West as the impact of the upper
ridge dominates over Missouri late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Transport winds and 20 foot winds should remain below 15 mph, but
become more variable in direction on Tuesday and Wednesday. All
factor should remain below critical fire danger levels the next
several days.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...Smith
FIRE WEATHER...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
318 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 317 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
Main challenges for this short term forecast period will be first
period (today) temperatures and relative humidity and timing of
precipitation into the WFO PAH CWA near or after midnight going
into Thursday morning.
Short term guidance indicating a slightly cooler bias with maximum
temperatures for this afternoon high temperatures. These
temperatures are approximately 3-5 degrees cooler than surrounding
NWS forecasts. The key balance will be the combination of dry/cold air
advection and subsidence of air parcels below 850 mb. At this
time, am not inclined to go a complete 30 degree spread from
morning minimum temperatures, but at least a 27 degree Fahrenheit
temperatures spread. The 13km RAP guidance is the closest to this
solution for maximum temperatures today.
Ridging across the WFO PAH forecast will remain dominant through
at least 15z-18z (10am-1pm CDT) Wednesday, before cyclonic flow,
increased large scale, lift, differential vorticity, and
acceleration of low level moisture develop and move close to the
area. The main trough axis, near the U.S./Canadian border, near
North Dakota, will be in the process of enhancing/deepening along
the western limb of the trough, deepening the low. This will likely
slow the southeastward movement of the low until along or after
midnight going into Thursday morning. The forecast may still be
too aggressive in timing, but will keep chance PoPs going over the
northwest 1/2 of the WFO PAH CWA until at least 4 am Thursday
morning, before ramping up to match the Thursday daytime PoP
forecast in the extended part of this forecast package.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
Above average forecast confidence continues in the long term as
latest model solutions vary slightly with timing and coverage of
the upcoming weather event, but for the most part are still in the
same ball park.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase from the west on
Thursday as a storm system approaches from the central plains. As
mentioned above, models are slightly different with timing and
placement of selected parameters of this system, but right now the
best timing and coverage area-wide for showers and thunderstorms
should be Thursday night as the system actually crosses the region.
The cold front should be entering the far western portions of our
CWA around 7 PM Thursday and clearing the far southeast sections
around 7 AM Friday. Precipitation chances Friday morning rapidly
diminish from west to east as the front moves off to the east.
In the wake of the front, strong surface high pressure and northwest
flow aloft will usher in a very cool airmass which will keep things
dry and temperatures below normal through the end of the long term
period.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1143 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014
Little change to the existing forecast with the 06Z TAF issuance.
Early morning fog is the only concern, and that should only be an
issue at KCGI and KPAH. However, will have to monitor KEVV
closely, as they had showers all around, but not at, the terminal
early this evening.
A light north wind will mix down by late morning at all sites and
persist through the afternoon. With good radiational cooling
expected again Monday night, would not be surprised to see KCGI
with a reduction to visibility by 06Z Tuesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
Today and Tuesday will probably be the most ideal time period for
fire agency plans for prescribed burns. Should dry air advection
develop as advertised today, widespread minimum relative humidity
values will fall into the 23 to 33 percent range. Ten hour fuel
moisture`s have been staying above at least 9 or 10 percent which
should moderate the speed of fuel drying with tolerance levels.
Mixing heights today and Tuesday will be ideal between 11 am and 9
pm CDT, but diminish from the West as the impact of the upper
ridge dominates over Missouri late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Transport winds and 20 foot winds should remain below 15 mph, but
become more variable in direction on Tuesday and Wednesday. All
factor should remain below critical fire danger levels the next
several days.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DRS
FIRE WEATHER...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
204 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
WITH NEW AVIATION FORECAST...HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER THROUGH TUESDAY
BASED ON OBS AND LATEST MODEL RUNS. TEMPS AND POPS STILL LOOKED
REASONABLE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1052 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH UP WITH
THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 904 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP ALONG THE KY/VA/TN BORDER...WITH
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY INITIATING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WHERE
A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS NOSING IN FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
ACTIVITY...SLOWLY DIMINISHING IT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE
SOUTHEASTERN TERRAIN SHOWERS SEEM TO BE A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...SO
HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM NOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AS THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
AS OF MID AFTERNOON AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO REGION. A WEAK UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE IA/IL
BORDER WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WAS
NEARING THE NORTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED NORTH FROM MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUING TO MEANDER ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA REGION.
IN RATHER WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR...VERY
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT THESE REMAIN RATHER SPARSE.
TONIGHT...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE COMMONWEALTH. AT THE
SAME TIME...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
OH VALLEY REGION AS THE WEAK CLOSED LOW OPENS UP. THIS COMBINATION
SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS LOW CLOUDS AT
TIMES AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES WHERE CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR MAY
NOT EXPERIENCE MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON
MONDAY. THE DEEPEST THE MOISTURE WILL GET SHOULD BE EARLY ON MONDAY
AND AT THAT POINT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE GREATEST AT THAT
POINT...AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WERE USED FOR MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. EVEN ALONG THE VA
BORDER...HOWEVER... ONLY 40 PERCENT POPS WERE USED. MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST FROM THE CREST OF THE SMOKIES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND PIEDMONT.
THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT ANY RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH FOR ONE INITIALLY IN THE EVENING.
CLOUDS...LINGERING MOISTURE AND MORNING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD LIMIT MAX T ON MONDAY AND HAVE GENERALLY
UNDERCUT THE MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS ACROSS THIS REGION.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...WITH THE
AXIS DEPARTING TO THE EAST AROUND SUNSET ON MONDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINNING TO APPROACH
LATE. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LATE MORNING OR
MIDDAY ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE CLOUDS MAY HANG ON EVEN
LONGER NEARER TO THE VA BORDER. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE
FOR A SMALL RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG...POSSIBLY
DENSE IN A FEW SPOTS...AND THE COLDEST MIN T IN THE VALLEYS NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY...WHICH HAS BEEN COMMON AS OF LATE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
THE MODELS WERE AGAIN IN PRETTY AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE
GENERAL LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING ACROSS THE MID WESTERN CONUS...PRIMARILY OVER
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER
WEATHER WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS
TIME...IN THE FORM OF A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TAKE AWHILE TO REACH OUR AREA...AS THE RIDGE COULD BE QUITE
STRONG AND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ONLY SLOWLY DISPLACED. IT APPEARS
THE UPPER PLAINS LOW WILL FINALLY GAIN ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO PUSH
EASTWARD BEGINNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED
TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...DRAGGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THERE WERE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT OVERALL THEY WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS
COLD FRONT. AS WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE ON THURSDAY...WE CAN EXPECTED A FLUX OF MOISTURE
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ONCE THIS MOIST AIR
INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BREAK OUT ALONG IT. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LIMITED AT THIS
POINT...SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WAS INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST. THE BULK OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR WOULD LIKELY DO SO
DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. A STRONG
RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO BEGIN THE
WEEKEND. THIS...ALONG WITH STRENGTH OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW...SHOULD
MAKE FOR A FAIRLY QUICK FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
A FEW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING NEAR THE VA BORDER AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THEY WERE LIGHT AND WILL REMAIN SO UNTIL THEY TAPER OFF ON
MONDAY MORNING. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOG. ITS DEVELOPMENT WAS
ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY IN VALLEYS AND BEGINNING TO SPREAD. TAF SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR OR LOWER BEFORE DAWN. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING...LEAVING VFR.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
946 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE...
MOST OF THE LASTEST MESOSCALE MODELS SHOWING PRECIP ENTERING THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINE AND THE SEACOAST OF NH AROUND BETWEEN
04Z-08Z...AND CONTINUING TO AROUND 18Z. THE HRRR IS STILL AN
OUTLIER WHICH BRINGS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALL THE WAY INTO CENTRAL
NH BY 04Z. FEEL THIS IS SOMEWHAT OVERAGRESSIVE WITH THE FAST
MOVEMENT/TIMING OF THE PRECIP. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS...AS CURRENTLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MAKING INTO
THE SEACOAST OF NH AND PORTIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF ROCKINGHAM
COUNTY. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED DEW POINT AND CLOUD COVER GRIDS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
PREV DISC... SOME DRIER AIR AND CLEARING NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...OTHERWISE CLOUDS
WERE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS SHOULD FILL BACK IN TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUD AND FOG. THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE EAST WITH
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MAINE BY DAWN. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM MID 40S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW
PIVOTS SOUTHEAST AND SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT
IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD TOMORROW WITH AREAS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER LIKELY STAYING DRY. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60 WITH WARMEST READINGS LIKELY UPPER
CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER GIVEN NO
PRECIPITATION AND THINNING CLOUD COVER.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES
OFFSHORE. WE`LL SEE BROKEN CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING.
LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE
THURSDAY FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW...HOWEVER
IT STALLS DUE TO BLOCKING FARTHER DOWNSTREAM. RESIDUAL WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS STALLED SYSTEM WILL KEEP THINGS MOIST
ALONG THE COAST BUT EXPECT FOG AND PERHAPS DRIZZLE AT THE MOST IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE. A FEW SHOWERS ATTEMPT TO BACK ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
AND MAY REACH AS FAR AS THE MIDCOAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A SPOKE OF
ENERGY/WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS BACK WEST FROM THE COASTAL STORM
AND PROVIDES A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY...AGAIN MAINLY
OFFSHORE.
THE COASTAL LOW FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AS A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
DEEPENS AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS IS A MUCH SHARPER BOUNDARY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
HEAVIER AND TOP AN INCH IN THE HEAVIER CELLS. ANTECEDENT CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDER WITH
-26 C ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE.
COLDER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THIS FRONT AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING...LOWERING TO IFR TONIGHT AND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.
LONG TERM...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP FOG...LOW CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS DRIZZLE AROUND THE COAST AND AS FAR INLAND AS KAUG
THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER ALONG THE MIDCOAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOWER CEILINGS IN HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SOME TSRA EXPECTED
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON...IMPROVING TO VFR WEST TO
EAST.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
ONCE INCREASE BY LATER TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT AND
BUILDING SEAS. AN SCA HAS BEEN REISSUED FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS.
LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BE 5-7 FT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OUTSIDE
THE BAYS AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS THE WATERS. WINDS
MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST NEAR 25 KTS. WE WILL LIKELY ISSUE SMALL
CRAFTS DURING THESE TIMES.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
903 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE EAST COAST LATER WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
S/WV EJECTING FM H5 LOW SPINNING OVER UPR OHVLY SPREADING SHRA AND
A FEW TSRA ACRS CWFA. THE MORE VIGOROUS TSRA/HIER RAFL RATES SEEM
TO BE IN SRN PA XTNDG INTO MD. THERE WAS A HAIL THREAT ERLR. DUE
TO LWR SUN ANGLE AND SUNSET PRIOR TO 7PM...HVY RA AND WIND GUSTS
15-25 MPH WL MARK THE TOP END OF ACTIVITY. HRRR HAS BEEN DOING A
DECENT JOB TRACKING ACTIVITY...ALTHO PRVS CPL RUNS MAY HV BEEN A
LTL BIT SLOW. LTST RUN HAS ACCOUNTED FOR THIS...AND TAKES ACTIVITY
E OF CWFA BY/SOON AFTER MIDNGT. WL ADJUST DATABASE ACCRDGLY.
BIGGER STORY OVERNIGHT MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.
PM SHRA/TSRA WL ADD TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE QUESTION
IS WHETHER CLDS WL PART ENOUGH FOR RADIATION TO TAKE PLACE. IR
SATPIX ACRS WVA CASTS SOME DOUBT ON THAT. WL CONT W/ THE OVERALL
CONCEPT OF PATCHY FOG AFTR MIDNGT AND AREAS OF FOG PRE-DAWN.
/THERE SHUD BE SOME BINOVC./ HWVR...HV RAISED VSBYS UP A LTL. /ITS
A BIAS OF MOST GDNC./ AM NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT ON DENSE FOG ATTM.
UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON WEDNESDAY. FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY WITH A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH NOSING INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP AN
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND FETCH IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR SKY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...MID- AND
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL LOWER AND THICKEN
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS PRECEDING THIS TROUGH COULD APPROACH THE WESTERN SLOPES BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...BUT THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS
THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
AND THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS PRECEDING THE
FRONT EXPECTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY DURING THE DAY. MODELS ARE STILL
DIVERGENT ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL DETERMINE
EXACTLY WHO GETS HOW MUCH RAIN AND WHEN. FORCING WITH THE TROUGH IS
STRONG BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...SO WHILE A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THE CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT WIDESPREAD THUNDER IS UNLIKELY. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER/HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN COULD BE
REALIZED ESPECIALLY IF THE TROUGH ENDS UP BEING ON THE STRONGER SIDE.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT BY LATER SATURDAY AFTER THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND STICK AROUND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...PERHAPS
ISOLATED FREEZING TEMPERATURE READINGS ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES
SATURDAY NIGHT IF WINDS SLACKEN A TAD QUICKER THAN GUIDANCE IS
CURRENTLY SUGGESTING.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK BUT MODELS ARE HIGHLY DIVERGENT ON WHEN IT AND ITS IMPACTS
REACH THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACRS ALL TERMINALS ATTM. A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA ALIGNED W/
BLURDG ATTM WL TRACK EWD ACRS HUBS THRU 03Z. STABILITY MARGINAL.
SUSPECT ACTIVITY WL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT APPROACHES. BRIEF FLGT
RESTRICTIONS LKLY DURING ITS PASSAGE...MOSTLY MVFR. WL ATTEMPT TO
PLACE 1 HR TEMPOS IN TAFS SHORTLY.
LOW CIGS AND FOG A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT....MIXING OUT BY LATE
MORNING OR MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. WENT A TOUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC THATN
PRVS FCST CYCLE...BUT STILL HV SUB-IFR CIGS FOR MRNG PUSH.
CIG AND PSBL VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE WED NIGHT-THU AM AND AGAIN THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AM WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW PORTRAYED IN ALL THE
GUIDANCE. CLIMO IS FAVORABLE FOR FOG/STRATUS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
SO THAT LENDS TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHWRS/ISO TSTMS IN ONE OR MORE
BANDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PSBL W/ GUSTY WINDS FRI-FRI NIGHT. VFR
SAT AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE W OR NW.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THIS WEEKEND BOTH AHEAD OF /SOUTHERLY FLOW/ AND BEHIND
/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW/ A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS/SEAS
GRADUALLY ABATE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...HTS/KRW
SHORT TERM...DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...HTS/KRW/DFH
MARINE...HTS/KRW/DFH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
236 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
TODAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TROUGH OF LO PRES SFC-ALOFT ENTERING RGN ATTM. -RA SPREADING NNE
INTO CNTRL VA RIGHT NOW...AND AS TROUGH SLIDES E...-RA XPCD TO
CONT/SPREAD E INTO THIS AFTN. MNLY FOLLOWED 11Z/29 RUC W/ PCPN
MOVEMENT INTO THIS AFTN...AND RAISED POPS MOST ERN PLACES (TO
40-60%). TEMPS TRICKY DUE TO CLDS AND LGT PCPN...MAY NEED FURTHER
ADJUSTMENT (DOWN) IN NEXT COUPLE/FEW HRS SHOULD TRENDS CONT. QPF
MNLY AOB 1/10TH INCH.
BY LT THIS AFTN...SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST REGION WILL
SLOWLY PUSH ENE AND ELONGATE INTO THE GULF STREAM ATLC WATERS OFF
THE SE COAST. THIS AREA WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND WILL ACT TO LIMIT QPF ACRS THE
MID ATLC AND AREAS FARTHER N. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS ACRS THE
SRN/ERN PORTIONS OF THE FA INTO EARLY EVE...WHILE THE AM PRECIP
AREAS OF THE PIEDMONT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS EVENING...WILL CONFINE HIGHEST CHC POPS TO THE SE...ONLY 20%
OR LESS FARTHER NW...CLEARING OVERNIGHT FROM NW TO SE WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S NW TO THE LWR 60S SE.
FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN NC)...AND A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH
FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA. HAVE POPS BLO 14% MOST
PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL
NE NC (IN THE EARLY MRNG). XPCG PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS N AND
CNTRL...TO PARTLY TO MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.
UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ PSBL BKN CLDNS AND ONLY
SLGT CHC POPS (MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY...W/
HI TEMPS FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT DIGGING A POTENT UPPER LOW
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
HEADS FOR NEW ENGLAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND
FOR DRY WX. HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
70S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 60S MAY BE MORE PROMINENT BY NEXT SUNDAY. LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THRU FRI NIGHT...THEN COOLING INTO THE 40S
TO MID 50S NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR THE TAF SITES
AS IT DOES SO. CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING RAIN IS LOWEST FOR KORF
SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED PREDOMINATE -RA THERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. THE WEAK TROF IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST
BETWEEN 08Z-13Z TUES WITH DRY WX RETURNING IN ITS WAKE. MAY SEE SOME
IFR FOG DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK.
DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT...WILL
NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH
MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU TUE NGT. A TROF OF LO PRES
WILL MOVE ACRS THE WTRS AND OUT TO SEA THIS EVENG THRU TUE MORNG.
WINDS WILL BECOME NW OR N ARND 10 KT OR LESS TODAY...N ARND 10 KT OR
LESS TNGT...THEN NE ARND 10 KT OR LESS TUE. A LO PRES SYSTEM WILL
THEN SWING THRU THE NE U.S. AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NGT AND WED...BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST BY THU MORNG. AS A RESULT...NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE A BIT FOR LATE TUE NGT THRU WED NGT...BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING DURING THU. SEAS COULD REACH 4 TO 5 FT ON THE CSTL WTRS
BY WED MORNG...THEN WILL SUBSIDE LATE THU/THU NGT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...TMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
856 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
TODAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TROUGH OF LO PRES SFC-ALOFT ENTERING RGN ATTM. -RA SPREADING NNE
INTO CNTRL VA RIGHT NOW...AND AS TROUGH SLIDES E...-RA XPCD TO
CONT/SPREAD E INTO THIS AFTN. MNLY FOLLOWED 11Z/29 RUC W/ PCPN
MOVEMENT INTO THIS AFTN...AND RAISED POPS MOST ERN PLACES (TO
40-60%). TEMPS TRICKY DUE TO CLDS AND LGT PCPN...MAY NEED FURTHER
ADJUSTMENT (DOWN) IN NEXT COUPLE/FEW HRS SHOULD TRENDS CONT. QPF
MNLY AOB 1/10TH INCH.
BY LT THIS AFTN...SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST REGION WILL
SLOWLY PUSH ENE AND ELONGATE INTO THE GULF STREAM ATLC WATERS OFF
THE SE COAST. THIS AREA WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND WILL ACT TO LIMIT QPF ACRS THE
MID ATLC AND AREAS FARTHER N. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS ACRS THE
SRN/ERN PORTIONS OF THE FA INTO EARLY EVE...WHILE THE AM PRECIP
AREAS OF THE PIEDMONT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS EVENING...WILL CONFINE HIGHEST CHC POPS TO THE SE...ONLY 20%
OR LESS FARTHER NW...CLEARING OVERNIGHT FROM NW TO SE WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S NW TO THE LWR 60S SE.
FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN NC)...AND A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH
FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA. HAVE POPS BLO 14% MOST
PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL
NE NC (IN THE EARLY MRNG). XPCG PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS N AND
CNTRL...TO PARTLY TO MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.
UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ PSBL BKN CLDNS AND ONLY
SLGT CHC POPS (MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY...W/
HI TEMPS FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT DIGGING A POTENT UPPER LOW
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
HEADS FOR NEW ENGLAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND
FOR DRY WX. HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
70S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 60S MAY BE MORE PROMINENT BY NEXT SUNDAY. LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THRU FRI NIGHT...THEN COOLING INTO THE 40S
TO MID 50S NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISLTD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THRU EARLY THIS MORNG...OTHERWISE EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO TUE MORNG...DESPITE WEAK TROF
APPROACHING AND MOVNG ACRS THE REGION. MODELS INDICATING DEEPEST
LO LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SE STATES. SO...WILL
ONLY HAVE -RA WITH A VFR CIG IN ECG TAF. DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT...WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS
OF FOG OR STRATUS ARND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU TUE NGT. A TROF OF LO PRES
WILL MOVE ACRS THE WTRS AND OUT TO SEA THIS EVENG THRU TUE MORNG.
WINDS WILL BECOME NW OR N ARND 10 KT OR LESS TODAY...N ARND 10 KT OR
LESS TNGT...THEN NE ARND 10 KT OR LESS TUE. A LO PRES SYSTEM WILL
THEN SWING THRU THE NE U.S. AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NGT AND WED...BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST BY THU MORNG. AS A RESULT...NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE A BIT FOR LATE TUE NGT THRU WED NGT...BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING DURING THU. SEAS COULD REACH 4 TO 5 FT ON THE CSTL WTRS
BY WED MORNG...THEN WILL SUBSIDE LATE THU/THU NGT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
746 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHARP UPR RDG
EXTENDING FM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY N INTO NW ONTARIO...SUPPORTING
SFC HI PRES JUST N OF LK SUP. ALTHOUGH THE MID TROP IS QUITE DRY...
WITH 12Z H5 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS AS HI AS 45C AT MPX AND QUAD CITIES...
LINGERING LLVL MSTR TO THE S OF THE HI CENTER AND BLO SHARP
SUBSIDENCE INVRN ARND H9-925 CAUSED QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD TO PERSIST
OVER THE UPR LKS THRU THE MRNG. DAYTIME HEATING THAT HAS CAUSED THE
LCL TO RISE THRU THE SLOWLY SINKING INVRN BASE PER FCST SDNGS IS
RESULTING IN STEADY BREAKUP OF THE LO CLD EARLY THIS AFTN. THE LO
CLDS HAVE BEEN MOST RESILIENT OVER THE CENTRAL...WHERE LLVL NE WIND
IS UPSLOPING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY TILTED SHRTWV
IS LIFTING NNEWD THRU THE NRN PLAINS. DESPITE THE MID LVL DRY AIR IN
PLACE...SOME SHOWERS/TS IN THE RATHER NARROW WARM CONVEYOR BELT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ARE MOVING INTO SW MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON CLD TRENDS. FCST
CONCERNS ON WED SHIFT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE
INCRSG SLY FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE E OF SHRTWV MOVING THRU THE
NRN PLAINS INTO SCENTRAL CANADA.
TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE LO CLDS WL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE INTO THE EVNG
WITH THE IMPACTS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...NOCTURNAL COOLING AND
VEERING WINDS TO THE S THAT WL BRING A RETURN OF MOISTER H95-9 AIR
SHOULD RESULT IN MORE LO CLDS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD
BE SOME DRIZZLE OVER THE CENTRAL WHERE EXPECTED SSE WIND WL UPSLOPE
OFF LK MI. THE ONE EXCEPTION WL BE OVER THE W...WHERE THE S WIND WL
DOWNSLOPE AND PREVENT/LIMIT THE REFORMATION OF THE LO CLDS. OTRW...
SOME MID/HI CLDS ON THE ERN FLANK OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR
RIBBON MOVING E THRU WL INVADE THE W OVERNGT. THE COMBINATION OF
LINGERING LO CLDS AND/OR INCRSG SLY FLOW WITH H925 WINDS INCRSG UP
TO 20-30 KTS BY 12Z WED WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. BUT TEMPS
SHOULD STILL FALL INTO THE 30S AT SOME OF THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS
THAT SEE MOCLR SKIES FOR A TIME.
WED...ALTHOUGH THE PASSAGE OF SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING DPVA AND DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WELL TO THE W THRU MANITOBA WL LIMIT THE PCPN
POTENTIAL OVER UPR MI...RATHER NARROW WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON
AND AREA OF H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC AND BAND OF H85-7 FGEN IN
RRQ OF 80KT H3 JET MAX LIFTING NNEWD THRU NW ONTARIO WL BRING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE W IN THE AFTN. CONSIDERING THE STRONG
DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND APPRECIABLE DEEP MOISTENING THAT IS FCST TO
RAISE PWAT NEAR 1.5 INCHES /UP TO 200 PCT OF NORMAL/ BY 00Z THU...HI
LIKELY POPS SEEM APPROPRIATE OVER THE FAR W. ALTHOUGH THE MID LVLS
OVER THE E WL REMAIN DRY...FCST SDNGS INDICATE LO CLDS WL PERSIST
MOST OF THE DAY IN THAT AREA AND LIMIT THE DAYTIME TEMP RECOVERY.
BUT WITH STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW BRINGING A RETURN OF H85 TEMPS AS HI
AS 12-13C...MAX TEMPS WL RISE ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
BY 00Z THURSDAY THE AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH
MOISTURE STREAMING N FROM THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. THE INITIAL
SHORTWAVE WILL BE CROSSING THE CWA. WITH STEADY S WINDS AND 850MB
TEMPS NEAR 11C...EXPECT THE FCST LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S TO
HOLD. WHILE THIS INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE A QUARTER TO
HALF AN INCH OF LIQUID...THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE WHEN THE 500MB LOW SET UP ACROSS MAINLY ONTARIO DIVES
ACROSS MN...AND THE SFC LOW ACROSS MO/IA QUICKLY DEEPENS TO AROUND
998MB ACROSS THE W HALF OF UPPER MI LATE THURSDAY EVENING...AND TO
AROUND 988MB BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY OVER N LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR WINDS
TO RAPIDLY INCREASE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR W UPPER MI
OVERNIGHT.
THE SFC LOW WILL SHIFT UP ACROSS JAMES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALLOWING MUCH COOLER AIR TO SURGE INTO THE REGION. THE GFS
LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST WIND WISE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GALE
FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THROUGH THE E HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TO GRAND MARAIS. WHILE THIS MAY BE POSSIBLE...LESS
FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTIONS OFF THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE NOT BACKING THIS
UP QUITE YET. GALES WILL BE STILL BE POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS
PERIOD...BUT WILL KEEP MORE OF A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE TIME BEING
UNTIL MODELS COME MORE IN LINE. WILL KEEP THE TS POTENTIAL IN
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE...AND STILL
MAINLY KEEPING IT OVER UPPER MI/LAKE MI.
THE SFC LOW WILL NOT EXIT FAST...AND WILL KEEP A TROUGH ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY. THE 500MB LOW WILL SWING ACROSS
UPPER MI FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF -23
TO -29C AT 500MB ROTATING ACROSS UPPER MI AND WI. WE ARE BACK TO
THAT TIME OF YEAR WHERE COOL NIGHTS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS OFF OF THE WARM LAKES WILL HELP PRODUCE
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
THE SFC RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. WITH A LESS FAVORABLE WIND
DIRECTION...THIS SHOULD BE THE DRIEST PERIOD DURING THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS SURGING BACK TO THE WEST
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AS FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BECOMES MORE E/SE THIS EVENING. SFC WINDS ALSO SLOWLY VEERING AS
WELL. UPSLOPE FLOW TO REMAIN OVER KSAW THROUGH THE EVENING AND AS A
CONSEQUENCE THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE IFR CIGS THERE EARLY ON AND HAVE ACCOUNTED
FOR THIS WITH A TEMPO GROUP. KCMX HAD LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE EARLIER
THIS EVENING BUT WILL SEE THE LOW CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS WELL. ONCE THE CLOUD COVER ARRIVES THERE IT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. KIWD TO STAY VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN DUE TO WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY. SEVERAL SHORT
TERM MODELS SUGGEST IFR CIGS WILL APPROACH OR EVEN REACH THE KIWD
AREA LATE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARRIVE THERE. AT THIS TIME COVERING THE IFR CIG
POSSIBILITY WITH A TEMPO GROUP. LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH
ARRIVAL OF DAYTIME HEATING BUT CLOUD COVER TO PERSIST WITH APPROACH
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH KIWD PRIOR TO
20Z BUT COVERAGE TO BE VERY LIMITED UNTIL AFTER THEN WHEN BETTER
FORCING ARRIVES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
HIGH PRESSURE OF OVER N ONTARIO WILL MOVE E TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN NE WILL LIFT ACROSS S MANITOBA WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
TO HUDSON BAY THURSDAY MORNING. A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL MOVE E...REACHING LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY. A LOW WILL FORM
ALONG THIS TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY THURSDAY EVENING AND THEN
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS INTO N ONTARIO FRIDAY...AND TO HUDSON BAY FRIDAY
NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W PLAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SETTLE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...AS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE HUDSON BAY LOW LINGERS OVER
N ONTARIO. A PERIOD OF NEAR GALES OUT OF THE W-NW WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
113 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPPING
SE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND NRN MN. AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED SHARP COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM SCNTRL MN THRU WI AND THEN ACROSS SCNTRL AND ERN
UPPER MI. IT APPEARS A WEAK SFC WAVE MAY BE LOCATED ALONG THE TROF
IN UPPER MI. AS EXPECTED...NEARLY ALL PCPN IS OCCURRING ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE A NICE RIBBON OF LOW-MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORCING IS LOCATED UNDERNEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE OF
UPPER JET.
INHERITED FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION TODAY.
WELL-DEFINED UPPER JET STREAK BEGINS TO LOSE DEFINITION TODAY.
THUS...UPPER JET FORCING AND CORRESPONDING LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ALSO BEGIN TO WEAKEN. SHOULDN`T HAVE AN IMMEDIATE
IMPACT ON BAND OF PCPN PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE MAY BE
SOME TENDENCY FOR PCPN TO BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED AND LIGHTER
WITH TIME AS THE PCPN MOVES ACROSS THE SRN FCST AREA. OVERALL...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO PCPN TIMING THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. BIGGER CHANGE WAS TO
DIMINISH POPS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY AS
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER QVECTOR DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES.
CYCLONIC FLOW/ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LAKE-850MB DELTA T
NEARING THE MARGINAL THRESHOLD FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN SHOULD WORK TO
HOLD IN SOME -RA/-SHRA NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NCNTRL UPPER
MI WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE BEST. WITH CAA AND CLOUD COVER LIKELY
HOLDING TOUGH THRU THE DAY...TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE
40S ACROSS THE W AND NCNTRL AND SHOULD SLOWLY FALL FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ELSEWHERE.
ANY LINGERING PCPN (-SHRA/-DZ) MAINLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL END
TONIGHT AS GRADUALLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA AND AS
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS MODERATES...ENDING ANY LAKE COMPONENT TO PCPN.
TEMPS POSE A CHALLENGE AS CLOUD COVER WILL DICTATE HOW LOW TEMPS
FALL. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDINESS WILL
LINGER TONIGHT. BEST CHC FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...PROBABLY LATE
IN THE NIGHT...WILL BE OVER THE W WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ANTICYCLONIC OVERNIGHT. TEMPS IN THAT AREA MAY FALL TOWARD
FREEZING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST STARTING 12Z TUE LOOKS PRETTY QUIET
AS A SHARP UPPER RIDGE AND SFC RIDGE PASS THROUGH THE CWA. THE
AIRMASS WARMS A BIT ON TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN...WITH 850MB
TEMPS INCREASING FROM 7-11C AT 12Z TUE TO 8-14C AT 00Z WED. WILL NOT
SEE FULL SFC WARMING POTENTIAL OF THE AIRMASS DUE TO A CLOUDY START
TO THE DAY AND SLOW CLEARING...BUT HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN
THE 50S.
W OF THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSITING THE REGION IS A AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROUGH COVERING THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE E...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD
TO WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT MOVING IN TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
SET TO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. THIS LEADS TO RAIN MOVING
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA FRI MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...EVENTUALLY COVERING THE ERN CWA ON THU. THE RAIN MAY HAVE
SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...BUT THAT IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. EVEN SO...MODEL
AGREEMENT DOES ALLOW FOR ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO HAVE LIKELY POPS
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE 8-14C 850MB
TEMPS WILL REMAIN THROUGH WED...ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO BE IN THE 60S.
HIGH FOR THU WILL BE SIMILAR SINCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN
THE DAY AND IS RELATIVELY WEAK.
REAL SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE LONG TERM IS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS GETS REINFORCED
BY ENERGY MOVING OUT OF CANADA. THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP AND MOVES
INTO THE CWA LATE THU NIGHT INTO SAT...BEFORE MOVING E BY SUN. WHILE
MODELS DO AGREE WELL ON THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN...THERE ARE MANY
UNCERTAINTIES ON A SMALLER SCALE WITH EMBEDDED ENERGY AND
CYCLOGENESIS/SFC FEATURE DEVELOPMENT. CAN SAY WITH GOOD CERTAINTY
THAT IT WILL BE COLDER AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO BELOW 2C BY FRI
EVENING AND AS LOW AS -5C ON SAT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT RISE ABOVE
50 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS ON SAT...WITH THE WARMER LOCATIONS JUST
BARELY GETTING ABOVE 50 DEGREES. WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS UNCERTAIN DUE
TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL FEATURES...BUT LAKE EFFECT RAIN /AND MAYBE SOME SNOW
FLAKES...BUT NO ACCUMULATING SNOW/ NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR IS MORE
CERTAIN JUST DUE TO THE COLD AIRMASS AND N TO NW LOW LEVEL WINDS.
SUN DOES LOOK DRIER AND WARMER...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT OF LIGHT
PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER AND WILL CONTINUE TO
CAUSE LOW CLOUDS AT ALL TERMINALS. AT KIWD...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CAUSE
MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. KCMX WILL HAVE IFR CIGS AND VIS WITH
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON. AT KSAW...UPSLOPE -DZ WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE PERSISTENT INTO TUE MORNING...RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS AT ALL
SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
IN THE WAKE OF A SHARP COLD FRONT PASSING THRU THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...N TO NE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-30KT OVER MUCH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THAT RANGE TODAY...
BUT THERE WILL BE SOME DIMINISHING OF WINDS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
THIS AFTN AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH COLD FRONT MOVING FARTHER
FROM THE AREA. DURING THE MORNING...THERE MAY BE A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS OVER NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES OVER NRN ONTARIO MOVES CLOSER. WINDS UNDER 20KT
WILL BE THE RULE TUE THRU THU. HOWEVER...AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SOME ON WED BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER ON WED...MAINLY
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. FRI INTO SAT...COLDER AIR SWEEPING INTO THE
UPPER LAKES BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO
STRENGTHENING NW WINDS AND POTENTIALLY GALES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
743 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPPING
SE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND NRN MN. AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED SHARP COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM SCNTRL MN THRU WI AND THEN ACROSS SCNTRL AND ERN
UPPER MI. IT APPEARS A WEAK SFC WAVE MAY BE LOCATED ALONG THE TROF
IN UPPER MI. AS EXPECTED...NEARLY ALL PCPN IS OCCURRING ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE A NICE RIBBON OF LOW-MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORCING IS LOCATED UNDERNEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE OF
UPPER JET.
INHERITED FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION TODAY.
WELL-DEFINED UPPER JET STREAK BEGINS TO LOSE DEFINITION TODAY.
THUS...UPPER JET FORCING AND CORRESPONDING LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ALSO BEGIN TO WEAKEN. SHOULDN`T HAVE AN IMMEDIATE
IMPACT ON BAND OF PCPN PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE MAY BE
SOME TENDENCY FOR PCPN TO BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED AND LIGHTER
WITH TIME AS THE PCPN MOVES ACROSS THE SRN FCST AREA. OVERALL...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO PCPN TIMING THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. BIGGER CHANGE WAS TO
DIMINISH POPS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY AS
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER QVECTOR DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES.
CYCLONIC FLOW/ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LAKE-850MB DELTA T
NEARING THE MARGINAL THRESHOLD FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN SHOULD WORK TO
HOLD IN SOME -RA/-SHRA NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NCNTRL UPPER
MI WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE BEST. WITH CAA AND CLOUD COVER LIKELY
HOLDING TOUGH THRU THE DAY...TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE
40S ACROSS THE W AND NCNTRL AND SHOULD SLOWLY FALL FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ELSEWHERE.
ANY LINGERING PCPN (-SHRA/-DZ) MAINLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL END
TONIGHT AS GRADUALLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA AND AS
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS MODERATES...ENDING ANY LAKE COMPONENT TO PCPN.
TEMPS POSE A CHALLENGE AS CLOUD COVER WILL DICTATE HOW LOW TEMPS
FALL. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDINESS WILL
LINGER TONIGHT. BEST CHC FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...PROBABLY LATE
IN THE NIGHT...WILL BE OVER THE W WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ANTICYCLONIC OVERNIGHT. TEMPS IN THAT AREA MAY FALL TOWARD
FREEZING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST STARTING 12Z TUE LOOKS PRETTY QUIET
AS A SHARP UPPER RIDGE AND SFC RIDGE PASS THROUGH THE CWA. THE
AIRMASS WARMS A BIT ON TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN...WITH 850MB
TEMPS INCREASING FROM 7-11C AT 12Z TUE TO 8-14C AT 00Z WED. WILL NOT
SEE FULL SFC WARMING POTENTIAL OF THE AIRMASS DUE TO A CLOUDY START
TO THE DAY AND SLOW CLEARING...BUT HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN
THE 50S.
W OF THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSITING THE REGION IS A AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROUGH COVERING THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE E...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD
TO WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT MOVING IN TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
SET TO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. THIS LEADS TO RAIN MOVING
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA FRI MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...EVENTUALLY COVERING THE ERN CWA ON THU. THE RAIN MAY HAVE
SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...BUT THAT IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. EVEN SO...MODEL
AGREEMENT DOES ALLOW FOR ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO HAVE LIKELY POPS
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE 8-14C 850MB
TEMPS WILL REMAIN THROUGH WED...ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO BE IN THE 60S.
HIGH FOR THU WILL BE SIMILAR SINCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN
THE DAY AND IS RELATIVELY WEAK.
REAL SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE LONG TERM IS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS GETS REINFORCED
BY ENERGY MOVING OUT OF CANADA. THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP AND MOVES
INTO THE CWA LATE THU NIGHT INTO SAT...BEFORE MOVING E BY SUN. WHILE
MODELS DO AGREE WELL ON THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN...THERE ARE MANY
UNCERTAINTIES ON A SMALLER SCALE WITH EMBEDDED ENERGY AND
CYCLOGENESIS/SFC FEATURE DEVELOPMENT. CAN SAY WITH GOOD CERTAINTY
THAT IT WILL BE COLDER AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO BELOW 2C BY FRI
EVENING AND AS LOW AS -5C ON SAT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT RISE ABOVE
50 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS ON SAT...WITH THE WARMER LOCATIONS JUST
BARELY GETTING ABOVE 50 DEGREES. WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS UNCERTAIN DUE
TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL FEATURES...BUT LAKE EFFECT RAIN /AND MAYBE SOME SNOW
FLAKES...BUT NO ACCUMULATING SNOW/ NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR IS MORE
CERTAIN JUST DUE TO THE COLD AIRMASS AND N TO NW LOW LEVEL WINDS.
SUN DOES LOOK DRIER AND WARMER...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT OF LIGHT
PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT THAT HAS PASSED...CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER. WHILE KCMX SHOULD SEE LOW MVFR CIGS TODAY WITH
OCNL IFR THIS MORNING...BETTER UPSLOPE FLOW AT KIWD WILL LIKELY KEEP
THAT TERMINAL UNDER IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AFTN. MAY SEE SOME LIFR AT
KIWD AS WELL. AT KSAW...POST FRONTAL BAND OF -SHRA WILL GIVE WAY TO
UPSLOPE -SHRA/-DZ BY LATE MORNING. UPSLOPE FLOW AT KSAW WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THRU THE MORNING WITH ONLY
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO IFR THIS AFTN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE QUITE
PERSISTENT INTO TONIGHT...RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS. ITS POSSIBLE IFR
CIGS COULD LINGER THRU TONIGHT AT KSAW DUE TO BETTER UPSLOPE FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
IN THE WAKE OF A SHARP COLD FRONT PASSING THRU THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...N TO NE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-30KT OVER MUCH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THAT RANGE TODAY...
BUT THERE WILL BE SOME DIMINISHING OF WINDS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
THIS AFTN AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH COLD FRONT MOVING FARTHER
FROM THE AREA. DURING THE MORNING...THERE MAY BE A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS OVER NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES OVER NRN ONTARIO MOVES CLOSER. WINDS UNDER 20KT
WILL BE THE RULE TUE THRU THU. HOWEVER...AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SOME ON WED BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER ON WED...MAINLY
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. FRI INTO SAT...COLDER AIR SWEEPING INTO THE
UPPER LAKES BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO
STRENGTHENING NW WINDS AND POTENTIALLY GALES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
536 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPPING
SE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND NRN MN. AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED SHARP COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM SCNTRL MN THRU WI AND THEN ACROSS SCNTRL AND ERN
UPPER MI. IT APPEARS A WEAK SFC WAVE MAY BE LOCATED ALONG THE TROF
IN UPPER MI. AS EXPECTED...NEARLY ALL PCPN IS OCCURRING ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE A NICE RIBBON OF LOW-MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORCING IS LOCATED UNDERNEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE OF
UPPER JET.
INHERITED FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION TODAY.
WELL-DEFINED UPPER JET STREAK BEGINS TO LOSE DEFINITION TODAY.
THUS...UPPER JET FORCING AND CORRESPONDING LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ALSO BEGIN TO WEAKEN. SHOULDN`T HAVE AN IMMEDIATE
IMPACT ON BAND OF PCPN PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE MAY BE
SOME TENDENCY FOR PCPN TO BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED AND LIGHTER
WITH TIME AS THE PCPN MOVES ACROSS THE SRN FCST AREA. OVERALL...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO PCPN TIMING THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. BIGGER CHANGE WAS TO
DIMINISH POPS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY AS
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER QVECTOR DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES.
CYCLONIC FLOW/ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LAKE-850MB DELTA T
NEARING THE MARGINAL THRESHOLD FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN SHOULD WORK TO
HOLD IN SOME -RA/-SHRA NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NCNTRL UPPER
MI WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE BEST. WITH CAA AND CLOUD COVER LIKELY
HOLDING TOUGH THRU THE DAY...TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE
40S ACROSS THE W AND NCNTRL AND SHOULD SLOWLY FALL FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ELSEWHERE.
ANY LINGERING PCPN (-SHRA/-DZ) MAINLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL END
TONIGHT AS GRADUALLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA AND AS
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS MODERATES...ENDING ANY LAKE COMPONENT TO PCPN.
TEMPS POSE A CHALLENGE AS CLOUD COVER WILL DICTATE HOW LOW TEMPS
FALL. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDINESS WILL
LINGER TONIGHT. BEST CHC FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...PROBABLY LATE
IN THE NIGHT...WILL BE OVER THE W WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ANTICYCLONIC OVERNIGHT. TEMPS IN THAT AREA MAY FALL TOWARD
FREEZING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST STARTING 12Z TUE LOOKS PRETTY QUIET
AS A SHARP UPPER RIDGE AND SFC RIDGE PASS THROUGH THE CWA. THE
AIRMASS WARMS A BIT ON TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN...WITH 850MB
TEMPS INCREASING FROM 7-11C AT 12Z TUE TO 8-14C AT 00Z WED. WILL NOT
SEE FULL SFC WARMING POTENTIAL OF THE AIRMASS DUE TO A CLOUDY START
TO THE DAY AND SLOW CLEARING...BUT HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN
THE 50S.
W OF THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSITING THE REGION IS A AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROUGH COVERING THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE E...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD
TO WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT MOVING IN TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
SET TO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. THIS LEADS TO RAIN MOVING
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA FRI MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...EVENTUALLY COVERING THE ERN CWA ON THU. THE RAIN MAY HAVE
SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...BUT THAT IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. EVEN SO...MODEL
AGREEMENT DOES ALLOW FOR ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO HAVE LIKELY POPS
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE 8-14C 850MB
TEMPS WILL REMAIN THROUGH WED...ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO BE IN THE 60S.
HIGH FOR THU WILL BE SIMILAR SINCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN
THE DAY AND IS RELATIVELY WEAK.
REAL SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE LONG TERM IS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS GETS REINFORCED
BY ENERGY MOVING OUT OF CANADA. THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP AND MOVES
INTO THE CWA LATE THU NIGHT INTO SAT...BEFORE MOVING E BY SUN. WHILE
MODELS DO AGREE WELL ON THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN...THERE ARE MANY
UNCERTAINTIES ON A SMALLER SCALE WITH EMBEDDED ENERGY AND
CYCLOGENESIS/SFC FEATURE DEVELOPMENT. CAN SAY WITH GOOD CERTAINTY
THAT IT WILL BE COLDER AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO BELOW 2C BY FRI
EVENING AND AS LOW AS -5C ON SAT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT RISE ABOVE
50 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS ON SAT...WITH THE WARMER LOCATIONS JUST
BARELY GETTING ABOVE 50 DEGREES. WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS UNCERTAIN DUE
TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL FEATURES...BUT LAKE EFFECT RAIN /AND MAYBE SOME SNOW
FLAKES...BUT NO ACCUMULATING SNOW/ NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR IS MORE
CERTAIN JUST DUE TO THE COLD AIRMASS AND N TO NW LOW LEVEL WINDS.
SUN DOES LOOK DRIER AND WARMER...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT OF LIGHT
PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
LIFR AT KCMX AND KIWD HAS SPREAD INTO KSAW AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN IN ITS WAKE.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AT KCMX THIS AFTN AS THE NE WIND WILL BE
LESS FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT KIWD AND KSAW ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO SEE MUCH IMPROVEMENT UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED BY EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
IN THE WAKE OF A SHARP COLD FRONT PASSING THRU THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...N TO NE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-30KT OVER MUCH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THAT RANGE TODAY...
BUT THERE WILL BE SOME DIMINISHING OF WINDS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
THIS AFTN AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH COLD FRONT MOVING FARTHER
FROM THE AREA. DURING THE MORNING...THERE MAY BE A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS OVER NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES OVER NRN ONTARIO MOVES CLOSER. WINDS UNDER 20KT
WILL BE THE RULE TUE THRU THU. HOWEVER...AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SOME ON WED BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER ON WED...MAINLY
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. FRI INTO SAT...COLDER AIR SWEEPING INTO THE
UPPER LAKES BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO
STRENGTHENING NW WINDS AND POTENTIALLY GALES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1225 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
ITS BACK TO REALITY THIS MORNING IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT.
AFTER A BEAUTIFUL DAY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S...WHICH BY THE
WAY WAS THE FOURTH DAY IN A ROW WITH HIGHS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MORE IN THE 55 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FA. THIS WILL RESULT IN TODAY BEING
20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE HIGHS ON SUNDAY.
THE COOL DOWN TODAY IS THE RESULT OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
STRETCHED FROM NEAR KEAU TO FSD EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT.
BANDS OF SHOWERS EXIST TO THE REAR OF THE FRONT AND STRETCH FROM FAR
NORTHERN WI TO NEAR BIS. THE SHOWERS ARE WELL DEFINED BY A BAND OF
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE ARW/NMM WRFS AS WELL AS THE HRRR ARE
LAGGING BY A FEW HOURS ON THE SOUTHEAST PROPAGATION OF THE SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. ONE EXCEPTION IS THE HOPWRF...WHICH HAS HANDLED
THE OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT MUCH BETTER. THEREFORE...THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING WAS MODELED TOWARDS THE HOPWRF. THIS
BRINGS SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH CENTRAL MN...THE TWIN CITIES
METRO AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL WI. THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH HEADING
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING DIMINISH.
RATHER EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TWIN
CITIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH EVEN THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S IN OUR NE CWA
AROUND RICE LAKE AND LADYSMITH TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
THE WORK WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE SCALE THROUGH THAT WILL
BE WORKING ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM...BRINGING WITH IT ENHANCED CHANCES
FOR PRECIP TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AND
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...WE WILL GET INTO
NW FLOW THAT WILL FEATURE US GETTING INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF A
CLIPPER ON SUNDAY.
FOR THE WORK WEEK SYSTEM...THERE A 3 WAVES OF INTEREST THAT WILL
IMPACT THE MPX AREA AS THE MEAN THROUGH WORKS THROUGH. THE FIRST
WAVE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AND WILL WORK ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AS A COMPACT NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH ON TUESDAY. WAVE TWO WILL BE A MORE SUBTLE FEATURE
COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY THAT WILL WORK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THE FINAL SHORT WAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA
WILL COME DOWN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MODEL AGREEMENT IS HIGH WITH THE FIRST WAVE. WAVE TWO STILL HAS
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR WEST IT WILL TRACK...WITH
DISCREPANCIES IN THE FINAL WAVE DEALING WITH HOW STRONG IT WILL BE.
ALTHOUGH THE FIRST WAVE WILL BE PASSING US BY TO THE WEST...IT WILL
SEND A COLD FRONT INTO MN TUESDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS FROM
DETERMINISTIC...PROBABILISTIC...TO CONVECTIVE ALLOWING SHOW A BAND
OF SHOWERS/STORMS WORKING ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN WRN MN AND EVENTUALLY ENDING UP OVER IN WRN WI BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. USED THE SREF TO TIME A N-S ORIENTED BAND OF
LIKELIES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH THE NIGHT. FROM
THE QPF PERSPECTIVE...INSTABILITY LOOKS PRETTY LIMITED WITH THE
BAND...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY EXCESSIVE RAIN RATES...WITH A GENERAL
QUARTER TO HALF INCH LOOKING LIKELY WITH THIS BAND OF SHOWERS. THE
BIGGER QUESTION WITH THIS FIRST WAVE...IS WHERE DOES THE COLD FRONT
END UP. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE TO THE WEST OF THE MPX
AREA...THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOWING DOWN AS IT WORKS ACROSS MN AS THE
UPPER FORCING DRIVING IT INITIALLY HEADS UP THROUGH MANITOBA. BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THIS FRONT ONLY LOOKS TO BE ABOUT HALF WAY
ACROSS MN.
THIS FRONT AND ITS POSITION WILL BE OF IMPORTANCE FOR WAVE TWO
COMING UP FROM THE SW WED AFTERNOON...AS A HEALTHY SLUG OF RAIN
LOOKS TO TRAVEL NORTH ALONG THE FRONT AS THE UPPER WAVE LEADS TO AN
ENHANCEMENT IN THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS
EVENING...THE GEM/GFS KEPT THE BULK OF THE SECOND WAVES PRECIP
ENTIRELY EAST OF THE MPX CWA...THE ECMWF WAS BRINGING THE CORE OF
THE PRECIP RIGHT UP I-35...WHILE THE NAM WAS IN BETWEEN...THOUGH
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF THAN THE GEM/GFS. GIVEN THE LOCATIONAL
DISCREPANCIES...HAVE HELD POPS DOWN IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE EAST. A BLEND OF THE NAM/ECMWF FOR
QPF WOULD SAY ANOTHER GOOD HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WOULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE FROM MANKATO UP THROUGH THE WRN TWIN CITIES
METRO AND UP INTO DULUTH. BESIDE WHERE THE PRECIP END UP...THERE ARE
ALSO DISCREPANCIES WITH HOW QUICKLY THIS PRECIP EXITS THE
AREA...WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING WRN WI WET RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. NOT TO IGNORE THE WEST SIDE OF THE CWA...DID START REMOVING
POPS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA AS
PRECIP THIS PERIOD WILL BE ALONG/EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
BE WELL EAST OF WRN MN.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE THE MPX AREA BRIEFLY DRY OUT AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...BUT A STRONG WAVE DROPPING
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN INTO CENTRAL MN
BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING IN THE
EAST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE WE FINALLY DRY OUT FOR GOOD FRIDAY NIGHT AS
WE GET WEST OF THE UPPER TROUGH. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS COOL AND BRISK
WITH STRONG NW WINDS...CLOUDS AND HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S CERTAINLY
LIVING UP TO WHAT IS PROBABLY MOST PEOPLES PERCEPTION OF WHAT
OCTOBER IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY IS LIKE.
FOR THE WEEKEND...SFC RIDGING...BRINGING WITH IT CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN A VERY CHILLY START TO SATURDAY...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS GETTING INTO THE 30S. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO DECIDE THIS
WEEK HOW FAR NORTH INTO THE CWA FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL STILL BE
NECESSARY THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL QUICKLY SEE TEMPERATURES START TO
REBOUND SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE GET INTO THE WAA SIDE OF A CLIPPER THAT
WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS NRN MN SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS DRY...COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT WORKING THROUGH. AT
ANY RATE...ANY PRECIP LOOKS LIGHT AND SHORT LIVED AND WE CURRENTLY
LOOK TO HAVE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR SEEING SOME FAST TIMES RUN
DURING THE TWIN CITIES MARATHON ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
LOW CONFIDENCE CIG FORECAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CAA CONTINUING SHOULD PRECLUDE RAPID CLEARING. WILL
TRY AND SCATTER CLOUDS OUT AFTER 23Z MOST LOCATIONS IN THE EAST.
FARTHER WEST A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC. THERE IS EROSION GOING ON
TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT DONT KNOW HOW EXTENSIVE THIS WILL BE
OVERNIGHT. IF IT DOES CLEAR OUT AROUND 00Z...THEN SOME RISK OF
STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS TREND OF BRINGING
IN THE STRATUS/FOG/LIFR TO THE WEST AND AT KEAU FOR NOW. STILL
CONFIDENCE LOW ON THIS OVERALL DEVELOPMENT. ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE THROUGH 15Z TO THE WEST WITH MORE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN DURING THE MORNING TO THE MN PORTION OF THE CWA. MAIN
RAIN THREAT HOLDS OFF AT WESTERN TAF SITES UNTIL AFTER 18Z TUE.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. A FEW GUSTS MOVING
ACROSS WITH THE COLD AIR MOVING THROUGH. THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
KMSP...LOW CONFIDENCE ON CEILING BREAKING OUT. WILL TRY AND BREAK
CEILING THROUGH 21Z...AND SCATTER IT OUT THROUGH 00Z. SOME THREAT
OF STRATUS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS
SO WILL LEAVE SCT012 FOR NOW. THEN SOME MID/HIGH LEVELS CLOUDS
MOVING IN DURING THE MORNING...WITH THE MAIN RAIN THREAT HOLDING
OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z WED.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. MVFR/SHRA LIKELY TUE NIGHT. WINDS E-SE 10-15 KTS.
WED...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS S-SE 10-15 KTS.
THU...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR IN SHRA. WINDS W-NW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...DWE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
658 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
ITS BACK TO REALITY THIS MORNING IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT.
AFTER A BEAUTIFUL DAY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S...WHICH BY THE
WAY WAS THE FOURTH DAY IN A ROW WITH HIGHS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MORE IN THE 55 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FA. THIS WILL RESULT IN TODAY BEING
20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE HIGHS ON SUNDAY.
THE COOL DOWN TODAY IS THE RESULT OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
STRETCHED FROM NEAR KEAU TO FSD EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT.
BANDS OF SHOWERS EXIST TO THE REAR OF THE FRONT AND STRETCH FROM FAR
NORTHERN WI TO NEAR BIS. THE SHOWERS ARE WELL DEFINED BY A BAND OF
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE ARW/NMM WRFS AS WELL AS THE HRRR ARE
LAGGING BY A FEW HOURS ON THE SOUTHEAST PROPAGATION OF THE SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. ONE EXCEPTION IS THE HOPWRF...WHICH HAS HANDLED
THE OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT MUCH BETTER. THEREFORE...THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING WAS MODELED TOWARDS THE HOPWRF. THIS
BRINGS SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH CENTRAL MN...THE TWIN CITIES
METRO AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL WI. THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH HEADING
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING DIMINISH.
RATHER EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TWIN
CITIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH EVEN THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S IN OUR NE CWA
AROUND RICE LAKE AND LADYSMITH TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
THE WORK WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE SCALE THROUGH THAT WILL
BE WORKING ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM...BRINGING WITH IT ENHANCED CHANCES
FOR PRECIP TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AND
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...WE WILL GET INTO
NW FLOW THAT WILL FEATURE US GETTING INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF A
CLIPPER ON SUNDAY.
FOR THE WORK WEEK SYSTEM...THERE A 3 WAVES OF INTEREST THAT WILL
IMPACT THE MPX AREA AS THE MEAN THROUGH WORKS THROUGH. THE FIRST
WAVE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AND WILL WORK ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AS A COMPACT NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH ON TUESDAY. WAVE TWO WILL BE A MORE SUBTLE FEATURE
COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY THAT WILL WORK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THE FINAL SHORT WAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA
WILL COME DOWN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MODEL AGREEMENT IS HIGH WITH THE FIRST WAVE. WAVE TWO STILL HAS
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR WEST IT WILL TRACK...WITH
DISCREPANCIES IN THE FINAL WAVE DEALING WITH HOW STRONG IT WILL BE.
ALTHOUGH THE FIRST WAVE WILL BE PASSING US BY TO THE WEST...IT WILL
SEND A COLD FRONT INTO MN TUESDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS FROM
DETERMINISTIC...PROBABILISTIC...TO CONVECTIVE ALLOWING SHOW A BAND
OF SHOWERS/STORMS WORKING ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN WRN MN AND EVENTUALLY ENDING UP OVER IN WRN WI BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. USED THE SREF TO TIME A N-S ORIENTED BAND OF
LIKELIES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH THE NIGHT. FROM
THE QPF PERSPECTIVE...INSTABILITY LOOKS PRETTY LIMITED WITH THE
BAND...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY EXCESSIVE RAIN RATES...WITH A GENERAL
QUARTER TO HALF INCH LOOKING LIKELY WITH THIS BAND OF SHOWERS. THE
BIGGER QUESTION WITH THIS FIRST WAVE...IS WHERE DOES THE COLD FRONT
END UP. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE TO THE WEST OF THE MPX
AREA...THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOWING DOWN AS IT WORKS ACROSS MN AS THE
UPPER FORCING DRIVING IT INITIALLY HEADS UP THROUGH MANITOBA. BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THIS FRONT ONLY LOOKS TO BE ABOUT HALF WAY
ACROSS MN.
THIS FRONT AND ITS POSITION WILL BE OF IMPORTANCE FOR WAVE TWO
COMING UP FROM THE SW WED AFTERNOON...AS A HEALTHY SLUG OF RAIN
LOOKS TO TRAVEL NORTH ALONG THE FRONT AS THE UPPER WAVE LEADS TO AN
ENHANCEMENT IN THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS
EVENING...THE GEM/GFS KEPT THE BULK OF THE SECOND WAVES PRECIP
ENTIRELY EAST OF THE MPX CWA...THE ECMWF WAS BRINGING THE CORE OF
THE PRECIP RIGHT UP I-35...WHILE THE NAM WAS IN BETWEEN...THOUGH
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF THAN THE GEM/GFS. GIVEN THE LOCATIONAL
DISCREPANCIES...HAVE HELD POPS DOWN IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE EAST. A BLEND OF THE NAM/ECMWF FOR
QPF WOULD SAY ANOTHER GOOD HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WOULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE FROM MANKATO UP THROUGH THE WRN TWIN CITIES
METRO AND UP INTO DULUTH. BESIDE WHERE THE PRECIP END UP...THERE ARE
ALSO DISCREPANCIES WITH HOW QUICKLY THIS PRECIP EXITS THE
AREA...WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING WRN WI WET RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. NOT TO IGNORE THE WEST SIDE OF THE CWA...DID START REMOVING
POPS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA AS
PRECIP THIS PERIOD WILL BE ALONG/EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
BE WELL EAST OF WRN MN.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE THE MPX AREA BRIEFLY DRY OUT AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...BUT A STRONG WAVE DROPPING
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN INTO CENTRAL MN
BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING IN THE
EAST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE WE FINALLY DRY OUT FOR GOOD FRIDAY NIGHT AS
WE GET WEST OF THE UPPER TROUGH. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS COOL AND BRISK
WITH STRONG NW WINDS...CLOUDS AND HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S CERTAINLY
LIVING UP TO WHAT IS PROBABLY MOST PEOPLES PERCEPTION OF WHAT
OCTOBER IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY IS LIKE.
FOR THE WEEKEND...SFC RIDGING...BRINGING WITH IT CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN A VERY CHILLY START TO SATURDAY...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS GETTING INTO THE 30S. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO DECIDE THIS
WEEK HOW FAR NORTH INTO THE CWA FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL STILL BE
NECESSARY THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL QUICKLY SEE TEMPERATURES START TO
REBOUND SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE GET INTO THE WAA SIDE OF A CLIPPER THAT
WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS NRN MN SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS DRY...COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT WORKING THROUGH. AT
ANY RATE...ANY PRECIP LOOKS LIGHT AND SHORT LIVED AND WE CURRENTLY
LOOK TO HAVE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR SEEING SOME FAST TIMES RUN
DURING THE TWIN CITIES MARATHON ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS COVER THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS TO THE REAR OF
THE FRONT WILL CAUSE TEMPORARY MVFR VSBYS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER ONTARIO WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL AID IN BREAKING UP THE LOW CEILINGS DURING THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THIS DUE TO THE TIME OF YEAR
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. IF THE CLEARING DOES OCCUR...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR FOG
AND LIFR/IFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST
ON THIS FROM KRWF TO KAXN AND ALSO AT KEAU. NE WINDS TODAY 08-12
KNOTS BECOMING ESE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.
KMSP...EXPECT THE CEILING TO MEANDER ABOVE AND BELOW 010 THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH IN THE 14Z-16Z TIME
FRAME. CEILINGS SHOULD RISE ABOVE 017 BY THE START OF THE
AFTERNOON AND VFR BY THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT
MVFR OR LOWER CIGS MAY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SCT012
INDICATED AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. MVFR/SHRA LIKELY LATE TUE NIGHT. WINDS E-SE 10-15 KTS.
WED...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS S-SE 10-15 KTS.
THU...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR IN SHRA. WINDS W-NW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
406 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
ITS BACK TO REALITY THIS MORNING IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT.
AFTER A BEAUTIFUL DAY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S...WHICH BY THE
WAY WAS THE FOURTH DAY IN A ROW WITH HIGHS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MORE IN THE 55 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FA. THIS WILL RESULT IN TODAY BEING
20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE HIGHS ON SUNDAY.
THE COOL DOWN TODAY IS THE RESULT OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
STRETCHED FROM NEAR KEAU TO FSD EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT.
BANDS OF SHOWERS EXIST TO THE REAR OF THE FRONT AND STRETCH FROM FAR
NORTHERN WI TO NEAR BIS. THE SHOWERS ARE WELL DEFINED BY A BAND OF
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE ARW/NMM WRFS AS WELL AS THE HRRR ARE
LAGGING BY A FEW HOURS ON THE SOUTHEAST PROPAGATION OF THE SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. ONE EXCEPTION IS THE HOPWRF...WHICH HAS HANDLED
THE OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT MUCH BETTER. THEREFORE...THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING WAS MODELED TOWARDS THE HOPWRF. THIS
BRINGS SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH CENTRAL MN...THE TWIN CITIES
METRO AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL WI. THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH HEADING
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING DIMINISH.
RATHER EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TWIN
CITIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH EVEN THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S IN OUR NE CWA
AROUND RICE LAKE AND LADYSMITH TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
THE WORK WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE SCALE THROUGH THAT WILL
BE WORKING ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM...BRINGING WITH IT ENHANCED CHANCES
FOR PRECIP TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AND
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...WE WILL GET INTO
NW FLOW THAT WILL FEATURE US GETTING INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF A
CLIPPER ON SUNDAY.
FOR THE WORK WEEK SYSTEM...THERE A 3 WAVES OF INTEREST THAT WILL
IMPACT THE MPX AREA AS THE MEAN THROUGH WORKS THROUGH. THE FIRST
WAVE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AND WILL WORK ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AS A COMPACT NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH ON TUESDAY. WAVE TWO WILL BE A MORE SUBTLE FEATURE
COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY THAT WILL WORK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THE FINAL SHORT WAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA
WILL COME DOWN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MODEL AGREEMENT IS HIGH WITH THE FIRST WAVE. WAVE TWO STILL HAS
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR WEST IT WILL TRACK...WITH
DISCREPANCIES IN THE FINAL WAVE DEALING WITH HOW STRONG IT WILL BE.
ALTHOUGH THE FIRST WAVE WILL BE PASSING US BY TO THE WEST...IT WILL
SEND A COLD FRONT INTO MN TUESDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS FROM
DETERMINISTIC...PROBABILISTIC...TO CONVECTIVE ALLOWING SHOW A BAND
OF SHOWERS/STORMS WORKING ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN WRN MN AND EVENTUALLY ENDING UP OVER IN WRN WI BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. USED THE SREF TO TIME A N-S ORIENTED BAND OF
LIKELIES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH THE NIGHT. FROM
THE QPF PERSPECTIVE...INSTABILITY LOOKS PRETTY LIMITED WITH THE
BAND...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY EXCESSIVE RAIN RATES...WITH A GENERAL
QUARTER TO HALF INCH LOOKING LIKELY WITH THIS BAND OF SHOWERS. THE
BIGGER QUESTION WITH THIS FIRST WAVE...IS WHERE DOES THE COLD FRONT
END UP. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE TO THE WEST OF THE MPX
AREA...THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOWING DOWN AS IT WORKS ACROSS MN AS THE
UPPER FORCING DRIVING IT INITIALLY HEADS UP THROUGH MANITOBA. BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THIS FRONT ONLY LOOKS TO BE ABOUT HALF WAY
ACROSS MN.
THIS FRONT AND ITS POSITION WILL BE OF IMPORTANCE FOR WAVE TWO
COMING UP FROM THE SW WED AFTERNOON...AS A HEALTHY SLUG OF RAIN
LOOKS TO TRAVEL NORTH ALONG THE FRONT AS THE UPPER WAVE LEADS TO AN
ENHANCEMENT IN THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS
EVENING...THE GEM/GFS KEPT THE BULK OF THE SECOND WAVES PRECIP
ENTIRELY EAST OF THE MPX CWA...THE ECMWF WAS BRINGING THE CORE OF
THE PRECIP RIGHT UP I-35...WHILE THE NAM WAS IN BETWEEN...THOUGH
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF THAN THE GEM/GFS. GIVEN THE LOCATIONAL
DISCREPANCIES...HAVE HELD POPS DOWN IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE EAST. A BLEND OF THE NAM/ECMWF FOR
QPF WOULD SAY ANOTHER GOOD HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WOULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE FROM MANKATO UP THROUGH THE WRN TWIN CITIES
METRO AND UP INTO DULUTH. BESIDE WHERE THE PRECIP END UP...THERE ARE
ALSO DISCREPANCIES WITH HOW QUICKLY THIS PRECIP EXITS THE
AREA...WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING WRN WI WET RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. NOT TO IGNORE THE WEST SIDE OF THE CWA...DID START REMOVING
POPS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA AS
PRECIP THIS PERIOD WILL BE ALONG/EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
BE WELL EAST OF WRN MN.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE THE MPX AREA BRIEFLY DRY OUT AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...BUT A STRONG WAVE DROPPING
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN INTO CENTRAL MN
BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING IN THE
EAST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE WE FINALLY DRY OUT FOR GOOD FRIDAY NIGHT AS
WE GET WEST OF THE UPPER TROUGH. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS COOL AND BRISK
WITH STRONG NW WINDS...CLOUDS AND HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S CERTAINLY
LIVING UP TO WHAT IS PROBABLY MOST PEOPLES PERCEPTION OF WHAT
OCTOBER IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY IS LIKE.
FOR THE WEEKEND...SFC RIDGING...BRINGING WITH IT CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN A VERY CHILLY START TO SATURDAY...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS GETTING INTO THE 30S. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO DECIDE THIS
WEEK HOW FAR NORTH INTO THE CWA FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL STILL BE
NECESSARY THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL QUICKLY SEE TEMPERATURES START TO
REBOUND SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE GET INTO THE WAA SIDE OF A CLIPPER THAT
WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS NRN MN SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS DRY...COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT WORKING THROUGH. AT
ANY RATE...ANY PRECIP LOOKS LIGHT AND SHORT LIVED AND WE CURRENTLY
LOOK TO HAVE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR SEEING SOME FAST TIMES RUN
DURING THE TWIN CITIES MARATHON ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO STEADILY DROP SOUTHWARD. SOME GUSTINESS IN
WEST CENTRAL MN. MVFR CEILINGS ARE LAGGING SOMEWHAT BUT THERE ARE
SPOTS THAT ARE FILLING IN. FRONT INDEED HAS BEEN MOVING FASTER
THAN MODELS HAD SUGGESTED...SO HAVE BUMPED UP THE ARRIVAL TIME OF
THE WIND SHIFT BY 2-4 HOURS. IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FROM 08Z-12Z ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MN INTO PART OF
WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. SHOWER CHANCE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
MAINLY IN CENTRAL MN WITH BEST LIFT...BEFORE CEILINGS BEGIN LIFTING.
KMSP...MAIN CONCERN DURING THE TAF PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE ARRIVAL
OF PROBABLE MVFR CEILINGS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
RADAR SHOWS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE METRO BY 06Z. THERE
IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AROUND 12Z
BUT IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN AS MVFR...BETWEEN 1000 AND 1600
FEET AGL. SOME CROSSWIND COMPONENT EXPECTED TOMORROW MIDDAY BUT
SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD BE BELOW 15 KNOTS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. MVFR/SHRA LIKELY LATE TUE NIGHT. WINDS E-SE 10-15 KTS.
WED...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS S-SE 10-15 KTS.
THU...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR IN SHRA. WINDS W-NW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...TDK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GLASGOW MT
651 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
SENT AN EARLY UPDATE TONIGHT TO MORE ACCURATELY REPRESENT THE
CURRENT AND NEAR SHORT-TERM EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE MORE
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH OUR NW ZONES NEEDED TO INCLUDE
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND OVERALL FELT LIKE 3-HOURLY GRIDS
TONIGHT WOULD BETTER REPRESENT THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF
PRECIPITATION AS THESE TWO SYSTEMS INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA NOW THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. BMICKELSON
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS...THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE MAIN LONG WAVE COMING INTO
WESTERN MONTANA. SHOWERS TO OUR EAST ARE MOVING NORTHWARD WHILE
SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE ARE MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST. THE GFS MOVES THE MOISTURE PRETTY MUCH OUT OUT OF MOST
OF THE AREA BY 06Z BUT THE SREF AND HRRR AND NAM HOLD THINGS A
LITTLE LONGER. THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING A BETTER JOB
OF SHOWING WHERE THE MOISTURE IS AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS TO
REFLECT THE LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE ND BORDER. THERE MAY BE A
FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY BUT THINGS DRY OUT
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY.
BY TOMORROW MORNING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN SOUTHWESTERN
MANITOBA AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE ENOUGH TO JUST BARELY HIT LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A DROP OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE
A SURE BET FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPDATE...THE INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD STANDING. THE
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE WERE TO THE LOWER POPS FOR THIS WEEKEND AND
ADJUST CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. AEC
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD WILL MOVE EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A FLAT RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED ALTHOUGH WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES DROPPING THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW THE OCCASIONAL SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS NOT INDICATING ENOUGH
PROBABILITY TO GO ABOVE CLIMO AT THIS TIME.
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NORTHERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING UPPER TROF. MODELS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZE OR
FROST BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES
THEN RECOVER TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS EAST. HOW LONG THE WARMER TEMPERATURE REMAIN IS ALSO
UNCERTAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE
AS THEY DROP OUT OF CANADA. EBERT
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR TO IFR
SYNOPSIS: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND CLASH WITH
THE BACKSIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS SLOWLY EXITING TO
THE EAST.
RAIN: RAIN ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THESE
SHOWERS ARE PRODUCING SOLID MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM RAIN
OBSCURATION AND PATCHY LIGHT FOG WHICH IS STEADY. HOWEVER CEILINGS
ARE BOUNCING RAPIDLY BETWEEN VFR DOWN TO BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
NEARING AIRPORT SHUTDOWN.
THUNDERSTORMS: KOLF AND KGGW COULD SEE ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG A
LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS ORIENTED OVER AN INCOMING COLD FRONT. THUNDER
STORMS WILL ONLY BE LIMITED TO A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE RETURNING TO
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AREA WINDS: NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KTS SUSTAINED... GUSTING TO 25 KTS
AT TIMES.
GAH
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GLASGOW MT
615 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
SENT AN EARLY UPDATE TONIGHT TO MORE ACCURATELY REPRESENT THE
CURRENT AND NEAR SHORT-TERM EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE MORE
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH OUR NW ZONES NEEDED TO INCLUDE
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND OVERALL FELT LIKE 3-HOURLY GRIDS
TONIGHT WOULD BETTER REPRESENT THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF
PRECIPITATION AS THESE TWO SYSTEMS INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA NOW THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. BMICKELSON
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS...THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE MAIN LONG WAVE COMING INTO
WESTERN MONTANA. SHOWERS TO OUR EAST ARE MOVING NORTHWARD WHILE
SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE ARE MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST. THE GFS MOVES THE MOISTURE PRETTY MUCH OUT OUT OF MOST
OF THE AREA BY 06Z BUT THE SREF AND HRRR AND NAM HOLD THINGS A
LITTLE LONGER. THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING A BETTER JOB
OF SHOWING WHERE THE MOISTURE IS AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS TO
REFLECT THE LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE ND BORDER. THERE MAY BE A
FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY BUT THINGS DRY OUT
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY.
BY TOMORROW MORNING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN SOUTHWESTERN
MANITOBA AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE ENOUGH TO JUST BARELY HIT LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A DROP OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE
A SURE BET FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPDATE...THE INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD STANDING. THE
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE WERE TO THE LOWER POPS FOR THIS WEEKEND AND
ADJUST CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. AEC
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER
TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL MOVE EAST
TO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES BY THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ALTHOUGH
WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW THE
OCCASIONAL SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CURRENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS NOT INDICATING ENOUGH PROBABILITY TO GO ABOVE CLIMO AT
THIS TIME.
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NORTHERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING UPPER TROF. MODELS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZE OR
FROST BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES
THEN RECOVER TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS EAST. HOW LONG THE WARMER TEMPERATURE REMAIN IS ALSO
UNCERTAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE
AS THEY DROP OUT OF CANADA. EBERT
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS
ALONG THE MONTANA-NORTH DAKOTA BORDER INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. MVFR... POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES... CAN BE EXPECTED FOR KGDV
...KSDY AND KOLF. LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF KGGW HOWEVER WILL
LIKELY MOVE BACK IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE NEXT TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS FOR KGGW POSSIBLE DROPPING TO
MVFR AS CEILINGS LOWER. AEC
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
622 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
GIVEN LATEST TRENDS OF SD SFC LOW...SVR THREAT OVER THE NRN CWA FOR
THIS AFTN/EVENING LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AT
PRESENT SFC LOW WAS CENTERED OVER WRN SD WITH MOISTURE FEED RUNNING
UP THE MO VLY REGION INTO THE SYSTEM. THE RAP HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE
LAST SEVERAL RUNS TAKING THE POTENT UPPER LVL VORT MAX/SFC
REFLECTION TRIPLE POINT IN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK.
HOWEVER...CANNOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT SOME TSTM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
LATER ON...THUS WILL HAVE TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN SMALL POPS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MOVING ON...NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PCPN CHANCES WILL REVOLVE AROUND NEXT
COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. BOTH NAM/GFS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT SFC BNDRY WILL STRETCH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ERN CO...AND
SHOULD BE STAGNANT THRU THE DAY DUE TO PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT. BY WED
NIGHT THOUGH...A SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL ACT
TO HELP DISPLACE THE SFC FRONT EWD...AND IS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION TO ERN OK BY THUR AFTN. AT THIS POINT
FEEL THE ARW/NMM BEST REFLECTS ANTICIPATED PROGRESSION OF PCPN
ACTIVITY DURING THIS TIME...THUS HAVE GEARED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
AS FOR SVR POTENTIAL WED AFTN...STOUT INSTABILITY WILL BE ON HAND.
HOWEVER...BOTH NAM/GFS SEEM TO FAVOR SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE CWA WHERE EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE MOST PREVALENT.
NEVERTHELESS...THERE IS STILL AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE AREAS SOUTH OF
I-80 COULD SEE STRONG/NEAR SVR STORMS.
IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL...GIVEN SLOW NATURE OF PASSING BNDRY
COUPLED WITH PROLONGED VERTICAL ASCENT...IT IS QUITE PROBABLE A
FEW LOCATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WILL EXPERIENCE HEFTY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY EVENTS END THURSDAY AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED PDS AS BOTH GFS/ECM
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE WRN CONUS...EXPECT
INCREASING THKNS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THUS ALLOWING FOR A
RATHER NICE FALL TYPE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
PRECIP IS LIKELY DONE AT KOFK UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN
SHOWERS MIGHT MOVE BACK IN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
KOMA/KLNK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THEN ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY MOVING OUT OF NORTHEASTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS INITIALLY...BUT BECOMING MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR
ESPECIALLY AT KLNK/KOMA. WILL PROBABLY TRANSITION BACK TO VFR LATE
TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS AT
KOMA/KLNK LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...TOO FAR OUT TO PREDICT WITH
ANY CERTAINTY.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DEWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1128 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MUCH OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN NM HAS DIMINISHED...THOUGH
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND AN ISOLD TS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THRU THE
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN ANY TAF
OVERNIGHT. IFR/MVFR CIGS ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...AND EXPECT THIS TO EXPAND OVERNIGHT. KLVS WILL HAVE THE
LONGEST IMPACTS...WHILE KTCC/KROW IMPACTS WILL BE CLOSER TO
SUNRISE. NEXT LOBE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING OVER NM ON
MONDAY. SHRA/TSRA WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NM...AS EARLY AS 18Z. STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OR NE AT 20 TO 35KT.
SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN WIND GUSTS AOA 50KT AND LARGE HAIL IN
EASTERN NM DURING THE AFTN/EVE.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...929 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014...
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT DOWNWARD WITH CURRENT
ACTIVITY LIMITED TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AND MOVING
SMARTLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. LATEST HRRR INDICATING NOT MUCH
CONVECTION IF ANY WILL LINGER AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING. DID LEAVE THE MENTION OF FOG OVERNIGHT AS SOME EAST
SLOPES SITES ALREADY REPORTING LOW CLOUDS. UPDATED ZFP ALREADY
SENT OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY TURN SEVERE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND POSSIBLY ALSO IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN
THREAT...WITH A CONCERN FOR LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...TOO. A COLD FRONT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A
COOLER DAY MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO REBOUND
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF NM WILL STEER
THE POLAR JET STREAM OVERHEAD THROUGH MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET CORE WILL CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TO EAST
CENTRAL AREAS INCREASING DYNAMIC FORCING AND THE SEVERE THREAT.
WITH 500 MB WINDS NEAR AND A LITTLE ABOVE 50 KT...EVEN AVERAGE
LOOKING STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE CRITERIA
WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND E OF THE
CENTRAL VALLEY.
FARMINGTON ALREADY RECEIVED 1.22 INCHES OF RAIN FROM THIS
SYSTEM...THE SAME AMOUNT OF RAIN THEY RECEIVED IN JUNE...JULY AND
AUGUST COMBINED. WPC QPF PROGS DEPICT ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF
INCH RAIN AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF I-40
AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE THE STORM EXITS THE
REGION. SPOTTIER AND GENERALLY LIGHTER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE...WITH LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION NEAR THE AZ
BORDER. DUE TO THE DRENCHING ALREADY RECEIVED AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
CLEARING SKIES LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NW AND W CENTRAL
PLATEAUS...ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR THAT AREA INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD SEE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND EVEN THE FAR SE AND E CENTRAL PLAINS
DUE TO A MOIST RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE SE OVERNIGHT.
MODELS ARE STILL AT ODDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH
WILL DIP AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FROM THE WNW WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS SUGGEST A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. THE TROUGH
WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT BARRELING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA CAUSING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER
A BRIEF RISE ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.
44
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE SIGNIFICANT DRYING AFTER MONDAY...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
NOT SEE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN BOTH HUMIDITY AND
WIND LEVELS THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND PERHAPS INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
RELATIVELY MOIST/WET PERIOD LINGERS THROUGH MON...ENDING BY OR
DURING THE AFTN FAR WEST CENTRAL AND NW NM...AFTER PASSAGE OF SFC
FRONT AND MID TO UPPER LVL TROUGH THERE BUT NOT TILL THE EVE EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS TONIGHT TO BE
NW AND N CENTRAL NM...THOUGH THEY WILL BE SPOTTY. BEST CHANCES MON
ACROSS NE AND N CENTRAL NM...EXTENDING TO SOME DEGREE INTO CENTRAL
AND E CENTRAL NM. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL PICK-UP AS WELL...LAL
REACHING A 5 BY MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS AND AT LEAST
4 IN NE NM. HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL CONTINUE TO BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT
MOST AREAS THROUGH MON NIGHT...THOUGH PERHAPS LOWERING SOME W
CENTRAL AND NW NM MON NIGHT. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY WITH GOOD MIXING WILL BRING MOSTLY VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
VENT RATES.
THE UPPER LOW TO OPEN UP AND EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH DRIER AIR FOLLOWING BEHIND
IT ON TUESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL TREND DOWN QUICKLY TUE...
BEFORE STABILIZING ON WEDNESDAY. VENT RATES ARE FORECAST TO TAKE A
MODEST TO MODERATE DIP ON TUESDAY...BUT BOUNCE BACK QUICKLY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN ADVANCE OF AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH...
FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE WEDNESDAY
AND PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES
TO MODERATE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND GENERALLY BOUNCE
BACK ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS WITH AN
UPPER HIGH BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
43
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
130 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL
STAY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING
FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA
TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY MID
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...12Z AREA RAOBS CONFIRM RUC ANALYSIS OF A
LARGE NE TO SW GRADIENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER...RANGING FROM
1.2 TO 2.2 FROM MHX TO CHS. AS SUCH IT MAY BE HARD TO GET MEASURABLE
RAINFALL INTO THE CAPE FEAR REGION AND POPS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED.
NON-MEASURABLE DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES APPEAR MORE LIKELY. DESPITE THE
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND NE WINDS THE TEMPERATURE CONTINUES
TO CLAW ITS WAY SLOWLY UPWARD AND AN EARLIER TEMPTATION TO LOWER
HIGH TEMP FCST HAS BEEN TABLED. NO OTHER CHANGES THAN TO
AFOREMENTIONED POPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUES WITH A DEEP N-NW
FLOW OF DRY AIR AS RIDGE BUILDS UP THE EAST COAST. PCP WATER
VALUES DROP OFF QUICKLY FROM AROUND 1.5 INCHES TUES MORNING DOWN
TO LESS THAN AN INCH BY TUES NIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA BY TUES AFTN AND RUNNING
THROUGH WED.
MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND SUNNY SKIES WILL YIELD TEMPS UP AROUND
80 ON TUES. DRIER AIR IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS DOWN CLOSE TO
60 AND BELOW OVER INLAND AREAS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO DROP
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS ON WED WILL WARM INTO THE
80S WITH THE AID OF A MORE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH
BRIGHT SUNSHINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD UP THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AT THE SURFACE. PLENTY
OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS WILL PRODUCE
ANOTHER MAINLY SUNNY DAY. SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY MAY PRODUCE SOME AFTN CU BUT OVERALL EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH TEMPS REACHING UP AROUND 80.
BY FRI...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE
FLOW. AS THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE SLIPS EAST A TROUGH BEGINS TO
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THIS TROUGH
DIGS DOWN IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
LATE FRI INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE FLOW REMAINS MORE WESTERLY AND
THEREFORE DOES NOT PULL UP MUCH IN THE WAY OF GULF MOISTURE SO
EXPECT FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED. THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF AREA AND
THEREFORE SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT A WARM AND SUNNY START TO FRIDAY AND
EXPECT PCP TO REMAIN ON THE LOW END WITH BEST CHC FRI EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
SATURDAY THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH AS IT
SHIFTS EAST. MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LEAVING A VERY BROAD TROUGH WITH
MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW BY SUNDAY. A DEEP COOLER NW FLOW SHOULD
PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH READINGS IN THE
MID 70S FOR HIGHS AND LOW TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN A WHILE IN A VERY DRY AIR MASS WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS
DOWN IN THE 50S. OVERALL EXPECT MORE FALL LIKE WEATHER FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOOKS LIKE PRECIP TODAY WILL STAY MAINLY INLAND WITH
SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY AT THE MYRTLES. STILL MAINLY A MID CLOUD
CEILING THAT THE PRECIP IS COMING OUT OF...HOWEVER BELIEVE
PRECIPITATION INDUCED CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY COME
DOWN...PARTICULARLY TOWARD SUNSET. AM NOT GOING AS LOW AS THE NAM
HOWEVER...AS IT HAS BEEN LOWERING CEILINGS TOO MUCH OVER THE PAST
WEEK AT LEAST. TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AND MOVE
EAST AS THE FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE COAST TOWARD MORNING. VFR
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT. BECOMING VFR SATURDAY WITH
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...N TO NE GRADIENT WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH. FURTHER OUT TO SEA THE
GRADIENT IS QUITE WEAK SO SEAS GENERALLY COMPRISED OF SHORTER PERIOD
WIND CHOP IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY AND
PERSISTING THROUGH TONIGHT UNTIL DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE PULLS
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. N TO NE WIND...GENERALLY AROUND 10
KTS... WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THE WIND WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS AWAY FROM THE COAST DURING THE DAY...THEN
15 TO 20 KTS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
EVOLVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT
INITIALLY THEN BUILDING TO 4 FT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE BACK END OF
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE MOVING FARTHER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH TUES...WILL INCREASE UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS AS GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. SEAS WILL INCREASE
UP TO 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH TUES BUT WILL COME BACK DOWN TO 2 TO 3 FT
BY WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THURS AND
SHIFT OFF SHORE BY FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH THURS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BY FRI AND INCREASING UP
TO 15 KTS BY FRI AFTN AS FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. SEAS DOWN TO 2 TO 3
FT ON THURS WILL INCREASE BACK UP TO 3 TO 4 FT WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WITH THE STRONGER WINDS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1030 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL
STAY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING
FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA
TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY MID
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...12Z AREA RAOBS CONFIRM RUC ANALYSIS OF A
LARGE NE TO SW GRADIENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER...RANGING FROM
1.2 TO 2.2 FROM MHX TO CHS. AS SUCH IT MAY BE HARD TO GET MEASURABLE
RAINFALL INTO THE CAPE FEAR REGION AND POPS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED.
NON-MEASURABLE DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES APPEAR MORE LIKELY. DESPITE THE
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND NE WINDS THE TEMPERATURE CONTINUES
TO CLAW ITS WAY SLOWLY UPWARD AND AN EARLIER TEMPTATION TO LOWER
HIGH TEMP FCST HAS BEEN TABLED. NO OTHER CHANGES THAN TO
AFOREMENTIONED POPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUES WITH A DEEP N-NW
FLOW OF DRY AIR AS RIDGE BUILDS UP THE EAST COAST. PCP WATER
VALUES DROP OFF QUICKLY FROM AROUND 1.5 INCHES TUES MORNING DOWN
TO LESS THAN AN INCH BY TUES NIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA BY TUES AFTN AND RUNNING
THROUGH WED.
MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND SUNNY SKIES WILL YIELD TEMPS UP AROUND
80 ON TUES. DRIER AIR IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS DOWN CLOSE TO
60 AND BELOW OVER INLAND AREAS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO DROP
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS ON WED WILL WARM INTO THE
80S WITH THE AID OF A MORE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH
BRIGHT SUNSHINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD UP THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AT THE SURFACE. PLENTY
OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS WILL PRODUCE
ANOTHER MAINLY SUNNY DAY. SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY MAY PRODUCE SOME AFTN CU BUT OVERALL EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH TEMPS REACHING UP AROUND 80.
BY FRI...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE
FLOW. AS THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE SLIPS EAST A TROUGH BEGINS TO
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THIS TROUGH
DIGS DOWN IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
LATE FRI INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE FLOW REMAINS MORE WESTERLY AND
THEREFORE DOES NOT PULL UP MUCH IN THE WAY OF GULF MOISTURE SO
EXPECT FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED. THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF AREA AND
THEREFORE SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT A WARM AND SUNNY START TO FRIDAY AND
EXPECT PCP TO REMAIN ON THE LOW END WITH BEST CHC FRI EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
SATURDAY THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH AS IT
SHIFTS EAST. MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LEAVING A VERY BROAD TROUGH WITH
MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW BY SUNDAY. A DEEP COOLER NW FLOW SHOULD
PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH READINGS IN THE
MID 70S FOR HIGHS AND LOW TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN A WHILE IN A VERY DRY AIR MASS WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS
DOWN IN THE 50S. OVERALL EXPECT MORE FALL LIKE WEATHER FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...TRICKY FORECAST TODAY. PRECIPITATION TRYING TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD...HOWEVER TIME HEIGHT AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A LOT OF
THE PRECIP IS COMING OUT OF A MID CLOUD CEILING...KEEPING PRECIP
QUITE LIGHT. CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO LOWER...BUT SHOULD NONETHELESS
BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH MVFR EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AT MOST
LOCATIONS. THE NAM HAS BEEN TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH REGARD TO CEILINGS
FOR DAYS NOW...IF NOT WEEKS. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE NAM`S IFR CEILINGS
FOR NOW...BUT MAY INTRODUCE THEM THIS EVENING. CONTINUED NORTHEAST
FLOW TODAY...FAIRLY LIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...SHUTTING OFF THE PRECIP.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...N TO NE GRADIENT WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH. FURTHER OUT TO SEA THE
GRADIENT IS QUITE WEAK SO SEAS GENERALLY COMPRISED OF SHORTER PERIOD
WIND CHOP IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY AND
PERSISTING THROUGH TONIGHT UNTIL DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE PULLS
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. N TO NE WIND...GENERALLY AROUND 10
KTS... WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THE WIND WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS AWAY FROM THE COAST DURING THE DAY...THEN
15 TO 20 KTS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
EVOLVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT
INITIALLY THEN BUILDING TO 4 FT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE BACK END OF
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE MOVING FARTHER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH TUES...WILL INCREASE UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS AS GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. SEAS WILL INCREASE
UP TO 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH TUES BUT WILL COME BACK DOWN TO 2 TO 3 FT
BY WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THURS AND
SHIFT OFF SHORE BY FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH THURS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BY FRI AND INCREASING UP
TO 15 KTS BY FRI AFTN AS FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. SEAS DOWN TO 2 TO 3
FT ON THURS WILL INCREASE BACK UP TO 3 TO 4 FT WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WITH THE STRONGER WINDS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
120 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF TODAY... CROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT... AND THEN
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...
MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH/WEST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A
APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE GULF COAST...WITH THIS LOW (AND BEST PRECIP
CHANCES) PROGGED TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING...AN AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN HAS DEVELOPED AND PERSISTED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR
FROM ATLANTA TO CHARLOTTE...AND THE LATEST HRRR HAS A FAIRLY GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS. THIS AREA OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SPREAD
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY
REMAIN PRECIP FREE THROUGH DAYBREAK. REGARDLESS... ANY PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AS THE AREA IS REMOVED FROM THE BEST FORCING.
WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS...EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS OVER THE SOUTH/WEST
WILL RESULT IN MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS (LOW TO MID 60S) COMPARED TO
THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER (AT LEAST EARLY ON
IN THE NIGHT) MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60
DEGREES BEFORE THE THICKENING CLOUD COVER MOVES EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...
MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF COAST/SE U.S.
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST MONDAY
AND DRIFT OFF THE GA COAST MONDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE FAR SOUTHERN
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...MOST OF THE LIFT TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE PRECIP OVER
CENTRAL NC WILL BE MAINLY GENERATED FROM LIFTING ALOFT...YIELDING TO
LIGHTER PRECIP AMOUNTS. THUS WHAT WAS LOOKING TO BE A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC A FEW DAYS AGO IS NOW LOOKING
MUCH WEAKER. EXPECT PATCHES OF PRECIP TO BREAK OUT IN THE
MORNING...BECOMING LIKELY GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64 BY MIDDAY.
HAVE DECREASED EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS BASED ON LATEST GFS/HPC
GUIDANCE. THIS YIELDS STORM TOTALS RANGING FROM LESS THAN A QUARTER
OF AN INCH NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64...AND A LITTLE MORE THAN A HALF INCH
ACROSS THE SOUTH.
SINCE PRECIP EXPECT TO BE LIGHT/SPOTTY...IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY
THAT A HYBRID/IN-SITU CAD WILL SET-UP. THUS...TEMPS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED UPWARD A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT BUT STILL
ONE TO TWO CATEGORIES BELOW MOS. IF PRECIP FAILS TO
MATERIALIZE...MAX TEMPS IN THE TRIAD AND TRIANGLE AREAS MAY END UP
BEING 3-4 DEGREES WARMER. CURRENTLY...WILL HAVE MAX TEMPS WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO OF 70 EXCEPT OVER TEH FAR NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
LOW-MID 70S MAY OCCUR.
MONDAY NIGHT...PRECIP STILL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE
WEST-NW AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSES AND EXITS THE REGION.
RAINFALL COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE SE COUNTIES WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM SUNDAY...
FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE GUIDANCE TREND HAS
CONTINUED AND APPEARED TO ACCELERATE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL
RUNS OR SO...ALTHOUGH AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE TUESDAY
MORNING...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH AND THEN
HEADS FROM NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST OUT TO SEA. THIS OCCURS AS
A MID-LEVEL LOW MOVES FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC...AND AN EXTENSION OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENS
SLIGHTLY AND MOVES OFFSHORE. THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE
GFS...AND WITH BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ABOUT KIXA TO KFAY AND
EAST...WOULD HANG ON TO LOWER CLOUDS THERE TUESDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...
THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE BASICALLY SUBSIDENT FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
RELATIVELY LOW K INDICES AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT...AND VIRTUALLY NO
QPF. OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN POTENTIAL VORTICITY ON THE 1.5PVU SURFACE...BUT
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ONLY SUGGEST A PERIOD OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS WITH
THESE FEATURES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY
TUESDAY MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 IN DEFERENCE TO THE
NAM...WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IF THE GFS
IS CORRECT...THE SKY FORECAST TUESDAY WILL BE MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN
THIS FORECAST WILL SHOW ESPECIALLY EAST OF U.S. 1...WITH AN AVERAGE
PARTLY SUNNY DAY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
THE MAV AND MET MOS GUIDANCE ARE VERY CLOSE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY AND
ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTATIONS FROM 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES. THESE VALUES WOULD REPRESENT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY TREND HIGHER...NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS
THE MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS...ESSENTIALLY A BLEND OF ALL OF THE GUIDANCE
PACKAGES AVAILABLE BOTH COOL AND WARM FOR HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS 56 TO 61 TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN HIGHS 75 TO 80
WEDNESDAY...COOLEST NORTHEAST WHERE THE CONSENSUS OF GFS AND NAM
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS SUGGESTS ANY HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ARRIVE
DURING THE MORNING AND EXTEND INTO THE AFTERNOON KEEPING SOLAR
INSOLATION LOWER COMPARED TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT BRIEFLY FOR THURSDAY. DURING THIS TIME...BOTH THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF PROVIDE FOR WEAK QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND WHILE
COARSE SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH MODELS SUGGEST LIMITED INSTABILITY AND
SOME AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIFT SHOULD BE WEAK UNDER BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE. THE ECMWF DOES FORECAST A WEAK 700MB WAVE MOVING
THROUGH...SO IF ALL PARAMETERS COME TOGETHER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO COULD OCCUR...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...THE ECMWF
IS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH LOW PRESSURE TO FOLLOW THE RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...WHICH RESULTS IN THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING FASTER
TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY VERY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED
TO THE GFS. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS SIMILAR...THOUGH...PUSHING THE
FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. WHILE
COARSE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT VERY UNSTABLE...THE STRENGTH OF THE
MID-LEVEL WAVE FORECAST BY BOTH MODELS...IN COMBINATION WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND THE JET AXIS ALOFT MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. A SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A SOLID CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY A SHOWER LINGERING INTO EARLY SATURDAY EAST
DEPENDING ON THE FRONTAL TIMING. AN ALTERNATIVE COULD BE FASTER
TIMING OF BOTH THE BEGINNING AND END OF PRECIPITATION IF THE GFS
TRENDS CONTINUE. DRY AND COOL SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO APPROACH...
OR EVEN FALL BELOW...50 DEGREES ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH OF THE
TRIANGLE WHERE 1000-850MB THICKNESSES...GRANTED OUT TO THE END OF
THE SIXTH DAY...WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST A FEW 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 AM MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT CENTRAL NC TAF
SITES... WITH A FEW BRIEF EXCEPTIONS. A THICK DECK OF MID CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS MORNING... WITH CIGS
EXPECTED TO LOWER BELOW 5 000 FT AGL BY MID MORNING (GSO/INT) OR THE
NOON HOUR (RDU/RWI/FAY) ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH. THESE LOWERING CIGS WILL COINCIDE WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN THAT WILL EXPAND OVER THE AREA FROM SW TO NE...
SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH TODAY WHILE DECREASING IN
COVERAGE TO BECOME VERY LIGHT/PATCHY. BRIEF MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THIS LIGHT RAIN... MAINLY NEAR GSO/INT... BUT OVERALL VFR VSBYS
SHOULD STILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...
MAINLY CALM THROUGH DAYBREAK THEN LIGHT/VARIABLE UNDER 6 KTS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY TUE MORNING... ONCE THE VEIL OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS EXITS TO THE EAST THIS EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...
WITH WINDS STAYING VERY LIGHT... CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR POSSIBLE
SHALLOW LIFR STRATUS/FOG BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z TUE MORNING... HOWEVER
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH BASED ON DIFFERING COMPUTER MODEL SOLUTIONS. IF
IT OCCURS... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MID MORNING TUE. MVFR
FOG IS POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE AND AROUND SUNRISE WED MORNING UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST FRI... BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND
RISING SHOWER CHANCES STARTING FRI. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1034 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY.
MUCH COOLER WEEKEND. REINFORCING FRONT MAY ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE...
NAM KEEPS TRYING TO GIVE SOME CONVECTION OFF THE ELEVATED CAPE
ALONG THE STALLING COLD FRONT FROM AN EKN-CRW-HTS LINE THROUGH
AROUND THE 06Z-09Z TIME FRAME. GAVE IN AND CONTINUED THE LOW END
POPS THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME WITH THE HRRR ALSO SELLING A SIMILAR
SOLUTION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC OBS SHOWING WEAK COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH-LIKE FEATURE GENERALLY
BISECTING THE STATE OF OHIO FROM NE TO SW...JUST EAST OF CLE-CMH-CVG
AT 18Z. AHEAD OF IT AND OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SE GREAT
LAKES IS A LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PA STRETCHING SSW-WARD
INTO MORGAN/PERRY COUNTIES IN OHIO. THESE WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY
EASTWARD MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF US HWY 50 THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LIKELY SHOW SOME SIGNS OF DISSIPATION AS THEY PROGRESS.
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH
EASTWARD ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA BY 12Z WED. PRECIP CHANCES THIS EVENING
ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC...WITH NEAR-TERM CONVECTIVE MODELS INSISTING
ON SOME WEAK REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES INTO OUR
AREA THIS EVENING. SHOULD THIS OCCUR IT WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES...WHILE THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS REMAIN
DRY. AT ANY RATE...ANY PRECIP SHOULD END BY THE 03Z-06Z TIME FRAME
OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES...AND ANYTHING WHICH DOES DEVELOP THIS
EVENING WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE FRONT/TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT BEGIN TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT...LAYING
UP SOMEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL WV LOWLANDS. BEHIND IT...LOW STRATUS
WILL TAKE HOLD...WHILE EAST AND SOUTH OF IT SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY...ALLOWING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FOG
FORMATION.
WEDNESDAY...EARLY MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
WITH AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY LATE MORNING FOR MOST AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST.
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH SOME RIDGE TOP CONVERGENCE AND LLVL MOISTURE
POOLED IN THAT AREA.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARDING TEMPS. OVERNIGHT MINS
GENERALLY MID/UPPER 50S LOWLANDS AND MAX TEMPS MID/UPPER 70S STILL
APPEAR ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET START TO THE PERIOD AS RIDGING RULES SFC AND ALOFT WED NT INTO
THU NT.
MEANWHILE...L/W TROUGH RESIDING OVER THE WRN CONUS OF LATE...SLIDES
E TO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY THU...AND TO THE ERN CONUS FRI-FRI NT.
MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON BEHAVIOR OF INDIVIDUAL S/W TROUGHS
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER L/W AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. THE FIRST S/W IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT GETS
DRAWN NEWD ON FRONT SIDE OF L/W...CROSSING FRI. THIS WILL HAVE THE
BEST AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION EVENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. DEPICTED A MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED PATTERN IN THE POP GRIDS.
DYNAMICS WITH THIS FEATURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN BUOYANCY WHICH...WITH STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW...GIVE RISE TO
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...THE ONLY MITIGATING FACTOR BEING THE TIMING
WILL BE A BIT EARLY IN RELATIONSHIP TO DIURNAL HEATING. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO AT LEAST SEE A SEE TEXT AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.
WILL DEFER TO THE MID SHIFT WITH THE NEW SWODY3 FOR AN HWO
INTRODUCTION.
THE FRONT WHIPS THROUGH FRI NT...DRIVEN BY THE MAIN S/W TROUGH AXIS
WHICH DIGS IN AND CLOSES OFF INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOMEWHERE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THERE REMAINS MODEL DISCREPANCY AS TO HOW FAR S
THE LOW CLOSES OFF...BUT CLEARING...DRYING AND FALLING TEMPERATURES
FOLLOW EITHER WAY.
BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...A LITTLE LOWER
THAN PREVIOUS. PREVIOUS FCST LOOKED GOOD FOR HIGHS THU. BLENDED IN
A COMBINATION OF NAM AND GFS MODEL TEMPERATURES FOR FRI...HIGHS
ENDED UP CLOSE TO PREVIOUS AS A RESULT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
L/W TROUGH DOMINATES THE ERN CONUS THIS PERIOD WITH INITIAL SHOT OF
COLD AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE FRI. THE GFS TAKES MOST OF SAT TO GET THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS THROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF IS FASTER...BUT BRINGS
ANOTHER S/W TROUGH AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE L/W THROUGH ON SAT.
EITHER WAY...A FEW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE COLD ADVECTION UPSLOPE
FLOW BENEATH THE COLD AIR ALOFT.
THE AREA DOES REMAIN IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MUCH OF THE PERIOD AFTER
THAT AS THE SWD EXTENT OF THE L/W DOES RETREAT. THIS MAKES IT
DIFFICULT TO TIME THE COOLEST WEATHER OTHER THAN THE INITIAL SHOT
SAT...WHICH IS NOW CODED UP AS THE COOLEST PART OF THE FCST. THIS
INCLUDES POTENTIALLY FROSTY TEMPERATURES FOR THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS
AND IN SE OH COME SUN MORNING.
THE NEXT REINFORCING S/W TROUGH BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO ITS TIMING
ALONG WITH TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE REINFORCING COOL AIR BEHIND IT
SO COULD NOT REALLY DEPICT NEXT COOL DOWN EVEN ON DAY 7 NT.
BLENDED IN GFS...THE COLDER MODEL...FOR TEMPERATURES SAT AND HAVE
HIGHS SAT ON LOW EDGE OF GUIDANCE AND WELL BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 50S
LOWLANDS. BLENDED IN WPC AND THE LOW MEX FOR LOWS SAT NT...AGAIN ON
LOW END OF GUIDANCE. WILL NOT HWO FROST DAY 4 NT THOUGH PENDING HOW
FAVORABLE SAT NT TURNS OUT FOR RADIATIVE COOLING. BLENDED IN WPC
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LESS CERTAIN BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT STRATUS TO FORM THIS EVENING AND ROLL IN FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT. BIGGEST QUESTIONS ARE THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE STRATUS
AND WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL GO IFR. LEANED ON THE NAM FOR THESE
ANSWERS AND KEEP CRW IN THE STRATUS...BRINGING IT IN TO BKW AND
EKN LATE...NEAR THE DAWN TIME FRAME.
STRATUS COULD BE STUBBORN TO ERODE/LIFT WEDNESDAY. 18Z IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION FOR THE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.
GUIDANCE PEGS THE VISIBILITIES...BUT WILL KEEP THE VISIBILITIES AT
6SM OR GREATER WHERE THE STRATUS ANCHORS IN. COAL FIELD AREAS ARE
THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE IFR OR WORSE FOG...BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT
ANY TERMINALS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF STRATUS...AND THE 1000FT THRESHOLD
ARE IN QUESTION. MAY TAKE LONGER FOR STRATUS TO DISSOLVE
WEDNESDAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 10/01/14
UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L L L L M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L L L L L
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/50
NEAR TERM...50/26
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
703 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
KBWI RADAR SHOWING THE LIGHT RAIN WHICH WAS SKIRTING S LANCASTER
CO HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA AS OF 22Z. A SHIELD OF MID AND
HIGH LVL CLOUDS REMAIN OVER EASTERN PA EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AFTER DARK...AS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOC WAA ALOFT SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE.
CENTRAL PA WILL BE IN BTWN SHORTWAVES TONIGHT...ONE DEPARTING THE
E COAST AND NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS. LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE
BTWN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY FCST OVERNIGHT. MCLEAR SKIES
AND A CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG.
LATEST SREF AND RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST...UNLIKE MANY RECENT NIGHTS...SOME
OF THE FOG COULD AFFECT EVEN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. DWPTS IN THE
50S SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT FOR LATE SEPT...WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE L/M 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A COMPACT UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW WILL DROP OUT OF THE LOWER GR LAKES
TUESDAY. DECREASING STABILITY UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL HELP
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT CAPE WILL BE
MODEST...BUT FORECAST TOTAL-TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 50 ARE USUALLY A
GOOD INDICATOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LOW TOPPED CONVECTION.
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF
0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS...BUT AMOUNTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER...0.15
TO 0.25 OF AN INCH...ACROSS THE FAR NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A FEW DEG COOLER AND IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN
ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND.
CLOUDIER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAN RECENT DAYS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROF WED...HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT
MOISTURE-LIMITED AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS ON
WED HOWEVER WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. WARMER WEATHER MAKES
A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO NORMALS.
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN
EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW CU PRESENT LATE THIS AFT. ADJUSTED 21Z TAFS FOR THIS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
THE REGION IS EXPERIENCING SOME LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING
ACROSS THE SKY AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH LOCALIZED FOG MAY AGAIN BE A CONCERN
LATER TONIGHT. IF THE UPSTREAM CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING GR
LAKES FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE IN QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...THIS WOULD
PUT A DAMPER ON THE FOG AND ASSURE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
THE DAY TUESDAY.
TUE-WED...AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE GR LAKES INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BRING SCT RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CIGS PROBABLE AT NIGHT.
OUTLOOK /THU THROUGH SAT/...
THU...LOW CIGS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST PROVIDES AN EAST-SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW.
FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PSBL ASSOC WITH GUSTY FROPA.
SAT...BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE OVER NWRN AREAS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
605 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
KBWI RADAR SHOWING THE LIGHT RAIN WHICH WAS SKIRTING S LANCASTER
CO HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA AS OF 22Z. A SHIELD OF MID AND
HIGH LVL CLOUDS REMAIN OVER EASTERN PA EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AFTER DARK...AS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOC WAA ALOFT SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE.
CENTRAL PA WILL BE IN BTWN SHORTWAVES TONIGHT...ONE DEPARTING THE
E COAST AND NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS. LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE
BTWN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY FCST OVERNIGHT. MCLEAR SKIES
AND A CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG.
LATEST SREF AND RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST...UNLIKE MANY RECENT NIGHTS...SOME
OF THE FOG COULD AFFECT EVEN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. DWPTS IN THE
50S SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT FOR LATE SEPT...WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE L/M 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A COMPACT UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW WILL DROP OUT OF THE LOWER GR LAKES
TUESDAY. DECREASING STABILITY UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL HELP
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT CAPE WILL BE
MODEST...BUT FORECAST TOTAL-TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 50 ARE USUALLY A
GOOD INDICATOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LOW TOPPED CONVECTION.
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF
0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS...BUT AMOUNTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER...0.15
TO 0.25 OF AN INCH...ACROSS THE FAR NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A FEW DEG COOLER AND IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN
ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND.
CLOUDIER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAN RECENT DAYS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROF WED...HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT
MOISTURE-LIMITED AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS ON
WED HOWEVER WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. WARMER WEATHER MAKES
A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO NORMALS.
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN
EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE REGION IS EXPERIENCING SOME LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING
ACROSS THE SKY AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH LOCALIZED FOG MAY AGAIN BE A CONCERN
LATER TONIGHT. IF THE UPSTREAM CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING GR
LAKES FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE IN QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...THIS WOULD
PUT A DAMPER ON THE FOG AND ASSURE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
THE DAY TUESDAY.
TUE-WED...AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE GR LAKES INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BRING SCT RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CIGS PROBABLE AT NIGHT.
OUTLOOK /THU THROUGH SAT/...
THU...LOW CIGS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST PROVIDES AN EAST-SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW.
FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PSBL ASSOC WITH GUSTY FROPA.
SAT...BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE OVER NWRN AREAS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
620 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Gusty south winds are coming to an end as well as any chance of
seeing precipitation. VFR conditions are expected to prevail
across the KABI and KSJT terminals through the forecast period,
though gusty south winds will likely return early tomorrow
morning. Farther south and east MVFR CIGS are expected to develop
during the early morning hours. Since confidence has increased in
the development of low clouds across KJCT, KBBD, and KSOA, MVFR
CIGS were added after 10Z. Low clouds will likely scatter sometime
after 17Z tomorrow.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
SHORT TERM...
/Tonight and Wednesday/
Isolated showers have been affecting the Big County this afternoon,
embedded within the mid-level moist axis streaming across the Lone
Star State from southwest to northeast. The RAP Mesoanalysis
indicates a narrow axis of MLCAPE values approaching 1500 J/kg
across the western counties this afternoon, but even the cu
development as been rather limited, suggesting a pretty strong cap.
We are seeing a bit more vertical development in the cu field over
the Trans-Pecos area, however, and any convection that develops may
drift into the southwest zones. Thus, the slight chance PoPs were
retained this evening, mainly west of a line from Ozona, to Robert
Lee, to Miller Creek Reservoir. Winds will be a few mph stronger
than what was observed last night and, combined with the increasing
low-level moisture, should support min temps in the mid to upper 60s.
On Wednesday, the thermal ridge axis will shift east, resulting in
850mb temps of 24-25C across the Big Country and Concho Valley by
peak heating. With low-level adiabatic lapse rates during the
afternoon hours, we should have little problem warming into the
lower 90s across much of the area. These warm temperatures may
strain the cap to its breaking point by late afternoon, so the
mention of showers and thunderstorms was retained after 20z (3 PM).
Coverage is expected to remain very limited, but any storms that
develop could be strong.
LONG TERM...
/Wednesday night through Monday/
Afternoon water vapor imagery shows a strengthening trough
progressing southeast across the Inter-mountain West, upper-level
moisture streaming northeast across west central Texas from Tropical
Depression Rachel, and a shortwave trough lifting northeast across
the Dakotas. A dryline observed in surface observations extends
south through the Texas Panhandle, with a few showers developing
ahead of this feature. Ahead of this dryline, southeasterly surface
winds continue to advect moisture into the region from the Gulf of
Mexico.
The trend in the model solutions the past few days has been to delay
the arrival of a cold front. This trend has continued today with the
GFS and ECMWF trending towards the NAM model. Convective
temperatures are expected to be reached tomorrow evening. With
sufficient moisture/good instability in place, shower and
thunderstorm development will be possible, mainly north and west of
a line from San Angelo to Baird. Forecast soundings show SBCAPEs in
excess of 2000 J/kg, around 20-25 Kts of 0-6km shear, and T/TD
spreads around 30 degrees F. With this type of environment, a few
strong thunderstorms will be possible.
With the arrival of the upper trough Thursday, a cold front will
cross the area during the day. For Thursday, moisture, instability,
and shear will increase ahead of the cold front, with forecast
soundings indicating convective temperatures being reached, and a
higher potential for strong thunderstorms/possibly a few severe/ if
frontal timing in the models are correct. Friday will feature cooler
temperatures, with highs near 80 degrees. Another disturbance will
cross the Central Plains this weekend sending a weak cold front
south. This front will stall across the area on Sunday, with
increasing surface moisture likely south of the front. However,
moisture return looks insufficient for shower development at this
time. Overall confidence is moderate in rain chances
Wednesday/Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 69 92 72 92 56 / 10 10 20 20 5
San Angelo 69 93 73 89 57 / 10 5 10 20 10
Junction 66 91 73 90 60 / 5 5 5 20 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation: Dunn
Short/Long Term: Johnson/60
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
738 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF COAST WILL TRACK TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY THIS EVENING...THEN OUT TO SEA WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS OUR AREA. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
ARRIVES AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT MONDAY...
TWO AREAS OF RAINFALL THIS MORNING...ONE FROM THE NC TRIAD...NE
INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VA...AND ANOTHER FROM TRI CITIES NORTHEAST
INTO SE WV. LATEST HRRR HAS DECENT HANDLE ON THIS AND WEAKENS THE
WRN LINE LATER THIS MORNING...WHILE MAINTAINING AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. STILL LOW QPF AMOUNTS THOUGH HAVE
UPPED POPS GIVEN THAT SOME AREAS WILL AT LEAST SEE A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO AS MUCH AS QUARTER INCH. OTHERWISE...THINK THE
FORECAST IS IN LINE BUT THINK DRYING MAY TAKE PLACE SOONER AS
UPPER SHORTWAVE IS NOW OVER NE KY AND SHOULD SLIDE ACROSS THE MTNS
BY 18Z TODAY...ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALLOW FOR SOME
LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE TN VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE MAIN NOSE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE TO GET SHOVED EAST. APPEARS THE SOUTHEAST CWA WILL
BE MORE IN LINE TO GET A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN OR SO COMPARED TO
THE NW CWA...ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE MTNS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE 0Z NAM/CMC SHOWING DRIER AIR ERODING CLOUD COVER IN
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN WEAK LOW IN THE LOW LVLS THE
MOISTURE MAY BE HARDER TO SCOUR OUT...WITH LINGERING STRATOCU
HANGING IN. NONETHELESS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE EXITS THIS EVENING
LEAVING BEHIND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN IN THE
MTNS. SOME CLEAR TO TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT LEADING TO FOG FORMATION
AS NO APPRECIABLE WINDS TO KEEP THINGS MIXED.
AS FOR TEMPS...TRICKY TODAY GIVEN EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN.
INSITU WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALTHOUGH IN A VERY WEAKENED STATE.
STILL TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND
SLIGHTLY EAST. COUNTING ON SOME LIMITED INSOLATION AND A MILD START
TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT...WITH SOME BREAKS
IN THE WEST TO ALLOW FOR LOWER 70S AS WELL ACROSS SE WV...PORTIONS
OF SW VA.
LOWS TONIGHT TO STAY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AS NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE
IN AIRMASS. LOOKING AT MOST PLACES GETTING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...
UPPER TROF CURVES OUT CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WHICH
TRACKS EASTWARD TO OFF THE ENGLAND COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW WILL PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM GULF
DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WELL OFF THE EAST COAST.
WITH SOME DRYING OF THE COLUMN AND WARMING OF THICKNESS EXPECTED
TUESDAY...THUS WENT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY FROM THE LOWER
70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. LEANED
LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT CLOSE TO THE ADJMETBC WITH READINGS
FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
AS SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH ROTATES EAST WEDNESDAY...ALLOWED FOR SOME
LIGHT POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
70 DEGREES TO THE UPPER 70S. THE BULK OF THE RICHEST MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE CENTER. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY REMAIN
ABUNDANT WITH A THETA-E RIDGE OVER THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO
LOCATED OVER THE AREA AND AS WINDS TURN TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER WEDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH...LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE ALONG
AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PLAYED LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MAY
HELP SCOUR CLOUDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE THEY
SPREAD BACK IN THURSDAY NIGHT. SHAPED HIGHS ON THURSDAY CLOSE TO
SUPERBLEND MOS FROM AROUND 70 IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE
EAST. AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT
ALLOWED FOR SOME LIGHT POPS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. MAINTAINED
CONTINUITY LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...
THE WEDGE WILL ERODE AND BREAK THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. PREFRONTAL SHOWERS WILL ENTER
THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
FRIDAY EVENING. MAJORITY OF THE RAIN /0.25/ WILL FALL OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS /0.10/ EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WE DO
EXPECTED SHOWERS TO ADVANCE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS WINDS BACK TO
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITIES ARE NOT LOOKING
STRONG...THEREFORE MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER FROM
ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODELS ARE ALSO MOVING
THIS FRONT FASTER ACROSS THE REGION...CLEARING THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A STRAY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORT WAVE PIVOT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WITH LITTLE TO NO GREAT LAKES TRAJECTORY...WE
WILL JUST CALL SATURDAY A RAIN FREE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING
BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY...AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES EAST...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HIGHS WILL
RUN 5F-10F COOLER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 728 AM EDT MONDAY...
MOST IF NOT ALL TAF SITES TO SEE AT LEAST LIGHT RAIN THIS
MORNING...ONGOING AT LYH/DAN/BLF/LWB AND PUSHING INTO BCB/ROA BY
14Z. OVERALL THINK BCB/ROA WILL NOT SEE VSBY ISSUES BUT EARLY ON
LWB/DAN COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS. CIGS STILL STAYING
VFR...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. MAJORITY OF ANY
RAINFALL SHIFTS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY 18Z ENDING AT LYH/DAN
AROUND THAT TIME FRAME.
THE ISSUE HEADING INTO TONIGHT IS MAINLY FOG AND HOW LOW VSBYS
COULD GO. PATTERN WITH LACK OF MIXING COMBINED WITH GROUND
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO FAVORABLE FOG FORMATION AND THE GFSLAMP
AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOW FOG AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
POSSIBLY ROANOKE...BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL TAKE
LYH/DAN/BLF TO IFR VSBYS BY 07-9Z TUESDAY WHILE LWB/BCB GET INTO
VLIFR IN THE SAME TIME FRAME. FOG WILL BE OCCURRING INTO THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD...BEFORE DISSIPATING IN THE 12-15Z TUESDAY TIME
FRAME.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED MOST OF TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SOME LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW COULD LEAD TO SUB VFR
CIGS/VSBYS ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH US BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SUB VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK/RCS
AVIATION...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
342 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF COAST WILL TRACK TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY THIS EVENING...THEN OUT TO SEA WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS OUR AREA. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
ARRIVES AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT MONDAY...
FORECAST CENTERED AROUND NWD EXTENT OF MOISTURE VERSUS WEAKENING
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. RADAR SHOWING RAIN MOVING
NEWD ACROSS THE VA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WITH ANOTHER NARROW AREA
OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS FAR SW VA INTO WV. 05Z HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON THIS THROUGH DAWN...SHOWING TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF
MOISTURE. QPF WILL BE LIGHT AND KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR
NOW AS ACTIVITY IS SCATTERED.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE MAIN NOSE OF DEEPER MOISTURE
TO GET SHOVED EAST. APPEARS THE SOUTHEAST CWA WILL BE MORE IN LINE
TO GET A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN OR SO COMPARED TO THE NW CWA...ONCE
THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE MTNS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE 0Z
NAM/CMC SHOWING DRIER AIR ERODING CLOUD COVER IN THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN WEAK LOW IN THE LOW LVLS THE MOISTURE MAY BE
HARDER TO SCOUR OUT...WITH LINGERING STRATOCU HANGING IN.
NONETHELESS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE EXITS THIS EVENING LEAVING BEHIND
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN IN THE MTNS. SOME CLEAR
TO TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT LEADING TO FOG FORMATION AS NO APPRECIABLE
WINDS TO KEEP THINGS MIXED.
AS FOR TEMPS...TRICKY TODAY GIVEN EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN.
INSITU WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALTHOUGH IN A VERY WEAKENED STATE.
STILL TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND
SLIGHTLY EAST. COUNTING ON SOME LIMITED INSOLATION AND A MILD START
TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT...WITH SOME BREAKS
IN THE WEST TO ALLOW FOR LOWER 70S AS WELL ACROSS SE WV...PORTIONS
OF SW VA.
LOWS TONIGHT TO STAY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AS NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE
IN AIRMASS. LOOKING AT MOST PLACES GETTING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...
UPPER TROF CURVES OUT CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WHICH
TRACKS EASTWARD TO OFF THE ENGLAND COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW WILL PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM GULF
DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WELL OFF THE EAST COAST.
WITH SOME DRYING OF THE COLUMN AND WARMING OF THICKNESS EXPECTED
TUESDAY...THUS WENT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY FROM THE LOWER
70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. LEANED
LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT CLOSE TO THE ADJMETBC WITH READINGS
FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
AS SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH ROTATES EAST WEDNESDAY...ALLOWED FOR SOME
LIGHT POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
70 DEGREES TO THE UPPER 70S. THE BULK OF THE RICHEST MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE CENTER. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY REMAIN
ABUNDANT WITH A THETA-E RIDGE OVER THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO
LOCATED OVER THE AREA AND AS WINDS TURN TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER WEDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH...LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE ALONG
AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PLAYED LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MAY
HELP SCOUR CLOUDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE THEY
SPREAD BACK IN THURSDAY NIGHT. SHAPED HIGHS ON THURSDAY CLOSE TO
SUPERBLEND MOS FROM AROUND 70 IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE
EAST. AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT
ALLOWED FOR SOME LIGHT POPS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. MAINTAINED
CONTINUITY LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...
THE WEDGE WILL ERODE AND BREAK THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. PREFRONTAL SHOWERS WILL ENTER
THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
FRIDAY EVENING. MAJORITY OF THE RAIN /0.25/ WILL FALL OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS /0.10/ EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WE DO
EXPECTED SHOWERS TO ADVANCE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS WINDS BACK TO
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITIES ARE NOT LOOKING
STRONG...THEREFORE MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER FROM
ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODELS ARE ALSO MOVING
THIS FRONT FASTER ACROSS THE REGION...CLEARING THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A STRAY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORT WAVE PIVOT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WITH LITTLE TO NO GREAT LAKES TRAJECTORY...WE
WILL JUST CALL SATURDAY A RAIN FREE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING
BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY...AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES EAST...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HIGHS WILL
RUN 5F-10F COOLER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 118 AM EDT MONDAY...
THE MOISTURE SPREADING NWD INTO OUR AREA WILL BE MAINLY IN VFR IN
TERMS OF CIGS. MODELS ARE KEEPING A HEAVIER QPF/RAIN TO THE SOUTH
BUT STRETCH SOME LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING ENDING BY
LATE IN THE DAY OUT EAST. MOST TERMINALS WILL LIGHT RAIN TODAY BUT
OBSCURATION TO VSBYS WILL BE MAINLY 6SM OR GREATER. UNTIL THEN THE
HIGH CLOUDS MAY THIN OUT SOME IN LWB TO ALLOW FOR FOR DEVELOPMENT
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE ONLY MODERATE FOR MVFR.
THROUGH THE DAY...CIGS WILL LOWER BUT STAY GENERALLY VFR...THOUGH
BLF COULD DROP TO MVFR AFTER 17Z.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE RAIN MOVES OUT MONDAY EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR FOG
FORMATION LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AT LWB/BLF...PERHAPS BCB.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
LOW LVL MOISTURE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT MAY LEAD TO SUB
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS. IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SOME LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW COULD LEAD TO SUB VFR
CIGS/VSBYS ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH US BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SUB VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK/RCS
AVIATION...NF/PM/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1238 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
SOME SHOWERS AND TURNING SHARPLY COLDER TODAY.
UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY CLOSED AND NEARLY CUT-
OFF LOW OVER THE WRN CONUS...AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OVER THE ERN
CONUS...AND THE MAIN WESTERLIES ACRS CANADA. THE WRN LOW WL GET
RE-ENERGIZED AS ANOTHER UPR LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF AK
DIGS SE AND PHASES WITH IT...WITH THE RESULTING UPR TROF BECOMING
PROGRESSIVE. THE TROF WL REACH ERN NOAM BY NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE A
RIDGE FORMS OUT WEST. THE NEW PATTERN WL HAVE MODEST AMPLITUDE.
STG COLD FRONT DRIVING SWD ACRS THE AREA TDA WL BRING AN ABRUPT
END TO THE STRING OF UNSEASONABLY WARM WX. TEMPS WL CRASH TO BLO
NORMAL LEVELS BY TOMORROW...RECOVER TO NR OR A LITTLE ABV NORMAL
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD MID-WK...THEN DROP OFF TO A LITTLE BLO NORMAL
BY THE WEEKEND. PCPN IS LIKELY TO END UP AOA NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD. WHILE SOME RN IS EXPECTED TDA...THE BULK OF THE PCPN WL
FALL DURING THE MIDDLE-LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK WHEN THE LARGE
SCALE UPR TROF CROSSES THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
THE OVERALL FCST IS PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD. STG COLD FRONT WL DROP
S ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTN. FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING COMBINED WITH QG FORCING FM FAIRLY STG SHRTWV DROPPING SE
WL RESULT IN LIFT BACK OVER THE FRONTAL SFC...AND A BAND OF POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS. BUT THERE WERE PLENTY OF FCST DETAILS TO WORK OUT
IN THE GRIDS INCLUDING TIMING OF PCPN AND POPS...THE NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND TDA...WINDS IN ERN WI...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LAKE-EFFECT CLDS AND PCPN TNGT INTO EARLY TUE.
THE FRONT IS ALREADY INTO THE FCST AREA...AND EXPECT IT TO CLR THE
AREA ARND 16Z. SHRA JUST ENTERING NW VILAS COUNTY. WENT WITH CAT
POPS FOR THE FAR N THIS MORNING...THEN STUCK WITH LIKELIES AT
BEST LATER TDA AS COVERAGE OF SHRA MIGHT NOT BE COMPLETE...ESP
OVER THE SW CORNER OF THE FCST AREA. BASED ON THE REACTION OF THE
WINDS ON ERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING...EXPECT A PRETTY STG SWD
PUSH OF THE FRONT DOWN THE BAY. SO ADDED SOME GUSTY N-NE WINDS
MID-DAY OVER ERN WI IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
LIKED THE WAY THE RAP HELD ONTO SHRA OVER E-C WI INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...AS SHRTWV DROPPING SWD BEHIND THE FRONT WL BE PRETTY
STG. A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONGER NNE FLOW IS LIKELY
OVERNIGHT AS 925 MB FLOW COMES ARND TO THE NNE AND COLD AIR ALOFT
RESULTS IN STG INSTABILITY OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE
LAKE AND BAY.
WAS MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE IN GETTIG
RID OF THE CLDS LATER TDA/TNGT. EARLY MORNING STLT SHOWED AN
EXPANSIVE LOW-DECK BEHIND THE FRONT...AND N/NELY FLOW DOWN ACRS
LAKES SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN WL LIKELY GENERATE MORE CLDS. WOULD NOT
EVEN BE SURPRISED TO GET SOME LGT LAKE-EFFECT SHRA. JUST CARRIED
AS SPRINKLES FOR NOW. A FROST/FREEZE WOULD BE LIKELY ACRS ABOUT
THE NWRN 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA IF CLDS CLEAR OUT COMPLETELY...BUT
JUST HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING THAT HAPPENING. WENT A BIT ABV GUID
WITH MINS PRIMARILY IN THE MIDDLE 30S NW...TO MIDDLE 40S SE. DAY
SHIFT SHOULD HAVE THE BENEFIT OF TRACKING THE CLD TRENDS DURING
THE DAY...AND CAN ADJUST MINS AND POST ANY NEEDED FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES THIS AFTN IF NECESSARY.
QUIETER WX WL RETURN TUE...BUT THE CANADIAN AIR MASS WL BE
ENTRENCHED ACRS THE AREA BY THEN SO WENT TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
THE GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
STILL LOOKING FOR A PATTERN CHANGE TO TAKE PLACE LATER THIS WEEK AS
MEAN TROUGHING SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE TRANSITION
OCCURS...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL ARRIVE DURING THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL
HAVE A FEW DETAILS TO GET WORKED OUT...SINCE EACH SOLUTION HAS A
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING/STRENGTH OF SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. WILL
LEAN ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF...THOUGH WILL ALSO WORK IN THE
GEM. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE PREFERRED BY HPC.
TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
NORTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING
EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WILL HAVE EASTERLY WINDS
EMANATING OUT OF THE HIGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FEEDING DRY AIR INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF WISCONSIN WHICH WILL TRY TO FIGHT BACK SHOWERS
WITHIN A MID-LEVEL THETAE AXIS OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN. THINK THE DRY AIR
WILL WIN OUT AND WILL STICK WITH A DRY FORECAST. THE BAND OF
SHOWERS WILL STALL ON WEDNESDAY AS IT LOSES ITS FORWARD PUSH. BUT
THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE SHOWERS COULD IMPACT NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN SO WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES. THE EAST SHOULD REMAIN
DRY WITH EAST WINDS CONTINUING. THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL GET SOME
FORWARD MOMENTUM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHT FALLS TAKE PLACE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE CHANCE OF PRECIP INTO EASTERN
WISCONSIN. COULD SEE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT IN
GENERAL...INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL. WILL DROP HIGHS OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO PRECIP AND
CLOUDS BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN IN THE 60S EVERYWHERE. NO CHANGES TO
LOW TEMPS.
REST OF THE FORECAST...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
BUT SOME INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THAT COULD PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP.
THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING WESTERN TROUGH REACHES THE STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL MARK THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG SECONDARY FRONT. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY BENEATH THE TROUGH. THEN
PRECIP CHANCES START TO FALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHEN THE
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. BUT COLDER AIR WILL BE
ARRIVING BY THIS TIME...WHEN HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE
50 DEGREES IN SPOTS. SOME MODERATING OCCURS ON SUNDAY BEFORE
RETURNING MOISTURE CREATES ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN LATER SUNDAY
OR NEXT MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
CDFNT HAS CLEARED NE WI WITH A N-NE WIND BEING REPORTED AT ALL
OBSERVATION SITES. AREA OF LIGHT SHWRS TRAILING THE FNT WL MOVE
ACROSS E-CNTRL WI THIS AFTERNOON AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
EVENING. CIGS BEHIND THE CDFNT WERE MAINLY IN THE MVFR RANGE AND
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONT THRU MUCH OF THE NGT AS CAA MOVES OVER
THE WARMER WATERS OF LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN AND HELPS TO
MAINTAIN THE CLOUDS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE CNTRL WI AND THE
AUW/CWA TAF SITES WHERE SOME CLEARING MAY TAKE PLACE LATER TNGT.
VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN ON TUE AS BOTH A SFC HI TO THE NORTH AND
A WEAK UPR RDG MOVING INTO THE REGION...PROVIDE A QUIET BUT COOL
DAY OVER THE REGION. ERN WI LIKELY TO BE THE LAST TO COMPLETELY
CLEAR OUT ON TUE DUE TO LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A DEPARTED
SHORTWAVE TROF.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......AK
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
SOME SHOWERS AND TURNING SHARPLY COLDER TODAY.
UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY CLOSED AND NEARLY CUT-
OFF LOW OVER THE WRN CONUS...AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OVER THE ERN
CONUS...AND THE MAIN WESTERLIES ACRS CANADA. THE WRN LOW WL GET
RE-ENERGIZED AS ANOTHER UPR LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF AK
DIGS SE AND PHASES WITH IT...WITH THE RESULTING UPR TROF BECOMING
PROGRESSIVE. THE TROF WL REACH ERN NOAM BY NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE A
RIDGE FORMS OUT WEST. THE NEW PATTERN WL HAVE MODEST AMPLITUDE.
STG COLD FRONT DRIVING SWD ACRS THE AREA TDA WL BRING AN ABRUPT
END TO THE STRING OF UNSEASONABLY WARM WX. TEMPS WL CRASH TO BLO
NORMAL LEVELS BY TOMORROW...RECOVER TO NR OR A LITTLE ABV NORMAL
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD MID-WK...THEN DROP OFF TO A LITTLE BLO NORMAL
BY THE WEEKEND. PCPN IS LIKELY TO END UP AOA NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD. WHILE SOME RN IS EXPECTED TDA...THE BULK OF THE PCPN WL
FALL DURING THE MIDDLE-LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK WHEN THE LARGE
SCALE UPR TROF CROSSES THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
THE OVERALL FCST IS PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD. STG COLD FRONT WL DROP
S ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTN. FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING COMBINED WITH QG FORCING FM FAIRLY STG SHRTWV DROPPING SE
WL RESULT IN LIFT BACK OVER THE FRONTAL SFC...AND A BAND OF POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS. BUT THERE WERE PLENTY OF FCST DETAILS TO WORK OUT
IN THE GRIDS INCLUDING TIMING OF PCPN AND POPS...THE NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND TDA...WINDS IN ERN WI...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LAKE-EFFECT CLDS AND PCPN TNGT INTO EARLY TUE.
THE FRONT IS ALREADY INTO THE FCST AREA...AND EXPECT IT TO CLR THE
AREA ARND 16Z. SHRA JUST ENTERING NW VILAS COUNTY. WENT WITH CAT
POPS FOR THE FAR N THIS MORNING...THEN STUCK WITH LIKELIES AT
BEST LATER TDA AS COVERAGE OF SHRA MIGHT NOT BE COMPLETE...ESP
OVER THE SW CORNER OF THE FCST AREA. BASED ON THE REACTION OF THE
WINDS ON ERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING...EXPECT A PRETTY STG SWD
PUSH OF THE FRONT DOWN THE BAY. SO ADDED SOME GUSTY N-NE WINDS
MID-DAY OVER ERN WI IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
LIKED THE WAY THE RAP HELD ONTO SHRA OVER E-C WI INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...AS SHRTWV DROPPING SWD BEHIND THE FRONT WL BE PRETTY
STG. A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONGER NNE FLOW IS LIKELY
OVERNIGHT AS 925 MB FLOW COMES ARND TO THE NNE AND COLD AIR ALOFT
RESULTS IN STG INSTABILITY OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE
LAKE AND BAY.
WAS MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE IN GETTIG
RID OF THE CLDS LATER TDA/TNGT. EARLY MORNING STLT SHOWED AN
EXPANSIVE LOW-DECK BEHIND THE FRONT...AND N/NELY FLOW DOWN ACRS
LAKES SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN WL LIKELY GENERATE MORE CLDS. WOULD NOT
EVEN BE SURPRISED TO GET SOME LGT LAKE-EFFECT SHRA. JUST CARRIED
AS SPRINKLES FOR NOW. A FROST/FREEZE WOULD BE LIKELY ACRS ABOUT
THE NWRN 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA IF CLDS CLEAR OUT COMPLETELY...BUT
JUST HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING THAT HAPPENING. WENT A BIT ABV GUID
WITH MINS PRIMARILY IN THE MIDDLE 30S NW...TO MIDDLE 40S SE. DAY
SHIFT SHOULD HAVE THE BENEFIT OF TRACKING THE CLD TRENDS DURING
THE DAY...AND CAN ADJUST MINS AND POST ANY NEEDED FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES THIS AFTN IF NECESSARY.
QUIETER WX WL RETURN TUE...BUT THE CANADIAN AIR MASS WL BE
ENTRENCHED ACRS THE AREA BY THEN SO WENT TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
THE GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
STILL LOOKING FOR A PATTERN CHANGE TO TAKE PLACE LATER THIS WEEK AS
MEAN TROUGHING SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE TRANSITION
OCCURS...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL ARRIVE DURING THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL
HAVE A FEW DETAILS TO GET WORKED OUT...SINCE EACH SOLUTION HAS A
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING/STRENGTH OF SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. WILL
LEAN ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF...THOUGH WILL ALSO WORK IN THE
GEM. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE PREFERRED BY HPC.
TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
NORTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING
EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WILL HAVE EASTERLY WINDS
EMANATING OUT OF THE HIGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FEEDING DRY AIR INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF WISCONSIN WHICH WILL TRY TO FIGHT BACK SHOWERS
WITHIN A MID-LEVEL THETAE AXIS OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN. THINK THE DRY AIR
WILL WIN OUT AND WILL STICK WITH A DRY FORECAST. THE BAND OF
SHOWERS WILL STALL ON WEDNESDAY AS IT LOSES ITS FORWARD PUSH. BUT
THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE SHOWERS COULD IMPACT NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN SO WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES. THE EAST SHOULD REMAIN
DRY WITH EAST WINDS CONTINUING. THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL GET SOME
FORWARD MOMENTUM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHT FALLS TAKE PLACE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE CHANCE OF PRECIP INTO EASTERN
WISCONSIN. COULD SEE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT IN
GENERAL...INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL. WILL DROP HIGHS OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO PRECIP AND
CLOUDS BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN IN THE 60S EVERYWHERE. NO CHANGES TO
LOW TEMPS.
REST OF THE FORECAST...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
BUT SOME INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THAT COULD PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP.
THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING WESTERN TROUGH REACHES THE STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL MARK THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG SECONDARY FRONT. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY BENEATH THE TROUGH. THEN
PRECIP CHANCES START TO FALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHEN THE
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. BUT COLDER AIR WILL BE
ARRIVING BY THIS TIME...WHEN HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE
50 DEGREES IN SPOTS. SOME MODERATING OCCURS ON SUNDAY BEFORE
RETURNING MOISTURE CREATES ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN LATER SUNDAY
OR NEXT MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY ACRS NRN WI IMMEDIATELY BEHIND A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SWD ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THEN CIGS ACRS THE ENTIRE
AREA SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE MVFR RANGE FOR LATER TDA INTO TNGT.
SUSPECT THE MVFR CIGS WL BE SLOWER TO DEPART THAN DEPICTED ON MANY
OF THE FCST MODELS DUE TO THE FLOW OF COLD AIR SSWWD ACRS THE GREAT
LAKES.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
317 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
CONVECTIVE LINE WAS ALREADY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON EXTENDING
FROM ROCK RIVER SSE TOWARDS THE DENVER METRO AREA. ATMOSPHERIC
DESTABILIZATION ALBEIT WEAK HAS BEEN UNDERWAY BEHIND THE MORNING
CONVECTION AND AHEAD OF THIS SECONDARY CONVECTIVE LINE. ALTHOUGH
LINGERING CLOUD COVER HAS INHIBITED IT SOME. 21Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACED
THE 1003MB LOW SOUTH OF PUEBLO WITH PRESSURE FALLS TO THE NORTH
ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR TOWARDS DENVER. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED
1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE NOSING INTO THE SRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS A BAND
OF 40-50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPROACHED FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT SATELLITE PIX SHOWED WAS LIFTING
NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THIS FTR WILL LIFT INTO
COLORADO BY 6 PM BEFORE CLOSING OFF NR THE WY/NE STATELINE BY
MIDNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW NOW LOCATED NR PUEBLO WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AND DEEPEN TO
993MB BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES SO...LLVL SOUTHEAST FLOW
COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL SPEED MAX TO DRAW A
FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE EARLY THIS
EVENING. LATEST HRRR HAS DONE WELL WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION SO FAR
AND SUGGESTS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BE GREATEST WHILE STORM MODES
ARE DISCRETE...WITH EVEN A FEW ROTATING UPDRAFTS CONTAINING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE. THIS
WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE FROM EASTERN LARAMIE COUNTY EAST TO
SIDNEY. BY EARLY/MID-EVENING SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY
AS CONVECTION BECOMES A MORE HOMOGENEOUS AREA OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MANY OF
THESE AREAS OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE RECEIVED 1-2 INCHES THIS
MORNING AND WITH ANOTHER AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES ON ITS WAY OVERNIGHT.
THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WARRANTED TONIGHT. THE OTHER CONCERN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE AREA IS ITS IMPACT ON WINDS. SW/NE ORIENTED GRADIENTS
TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT CONTINUING THRU TUESDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL EVENT...THIS PUTS THE WIND PRONE AREAS
IN SE WYOMING UNDER THE GUN. EVEN THOUGH KCAG-KCPR GRADIENTS ARE A
BIT MARGINAL...H7 PROGS CONTINUE TO POINT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HIGH WIND SET-UP EARLY TUESDAY. WILL KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING
GOING AS INHERITED.
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE FOR A TIME NR THE PINE RIDGE
TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST BY MIDDAY. FLOW
WILL WESTERLY FOR TUESDAY...BUT THE CWFA WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY
THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE ROCKIES. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LESS.
THE NEXT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST THRU THE
CWFA FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVR THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS AND PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ON
TUESDAY...BACK INTO THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN
INTO THE 50S ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
PRETTY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IN PLACE. SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN
MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY ON THURS. NO PRECIP IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THURS WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND 0C. A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON FRI AND THEN CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH 700MB TEMPS RISING TO 5-10C. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT
IS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON THURS THROUGH SUN...IT WILL STILL BE
BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY WITH
GOOD MIXING IN PLACE. EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25-30
KTS ON MOST AFTNS. PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE VERY
LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERAL RIDGING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A LACK OF MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
GOING TO GET A BREAK FROM THE RAIN AND LOWER CIGS THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT LAR AND CYS AROUND 21Z AND THEN SPREAD
NORTH AND EAST INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE DURING THE EARLY
EVENING. SINCE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY...WENT WITH
PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY EVENING OVER THE PLAINS
SITES. RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH
TUES MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OVER THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE AFTN. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION AFTER
06Z WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST. IT WILL BE WINDY
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS INTO THE DISTRICTS THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
BRING WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS TO A LARGE PART OF THE
DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SOME AREAS IN THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE PICKED UP 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN THIS
MORNING AND ARE IN LINE FOR ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES...PERHAPS LOCALLY
HIGHER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH NOON TUESDAY. WIND
PRONE AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL BECOME VERY WINDY LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN
EFFECT. THE COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE LIGHTER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON MDT TUESDAY FOR
WYZ106-110-116-117.
NE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NEZ002-003-019>021-054-
055-095-096.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1205 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
FIRST LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW EAST OF THE CWFA
FOR THE MOST PART WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF ALBANY...
LARAMIE AND PLATTE COUNTIES THIS MORNING. ATMOSPHERIC
DESTABILIZATION ALREADY UNDERWAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ALREADY
BEING REACHED IN THIS AREAS. IN A RECENT UPDATE HAVE BOOSTED HIGHS
3-4F ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY BROKEN OUT LATE THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR CONVECTIVE RE-DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BY
BETWEEN 1-2 PM PER LATEST HRRR OUTPUT. EVERYTHING STILL CONTINUES
TO POINT TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS...SOME OF WHICH WILL HAVE SEVERE
POTENTIAL GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A CHEYENNE TO ALLIANCE LINE.
THE OTHER CONCERN IS WITH FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THESE AREAS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 1-2 INCHES
OF RAINFALL THIS MORNING...AND WITH ANOTHER 1-2...POTENTIALLY
HIGHER ON THE WAY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...THOUGH IT WAS PRUDENT
TO HOIST A FLOOD WATCH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS
CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 450 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
AN ACTIVE DAY OF WEATHER TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
NOTICEABLE ON RADAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VORTICITY LOBE WHICH IS
LIFTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT THROUGH THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN
SHOT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS
MID AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THIS IS A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM
AND WILL BRING WITH IT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS.
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON MAY SERVE TO SLIGHTLY LIMIT THE
OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT REGARDLESS OF SURFACE
HEATING...UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHOULD MORE THAN COMPENSATE. STRONG
DIFFLUENT/DIVERGENT FLOW AND COOLING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE AMPLE
LIFT AND INSTABILITY RESPECTIVELY. THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL BE
HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN...BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS
WELL AS...TORNADOES. LCL HEIGHTS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE GROUND
SUCH THAT ANY STRONG UPDRAFTS WILL NOT HAVE TO DO MUCH WORK TO
STRETCH AND TILT HORIZONTAL VORTICITY. MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE
SHOWING SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
MUCH OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
ALOFT QUICKLY VEER WITH HEIGHT WHICH IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO
GENESIS. THE MAIN TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL BE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING.
40 TO 50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH ELEVATED CAPE
AROUND 1000 J/KG WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ROBUST UPDRAFTS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. ALTHOUGH FREEZING LEVELS ARE RATHER HIGH
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THEY WILL ONLY BE 7000 TO 9000 FEET AGL BY
00Z THIS EVENING AND FALLING. THIS MEANS HAILS STONES WILL HAVE
NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO MELT BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. WOULD NOT
BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED TO SEE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS WITH A
FEW STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...PARTICULARLY
INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ALSO WORRIED ABOUT HEAVY RAIN. DUAL
POLE RADAR ALREADY SHOWING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LAST EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT CONVECTION FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HEAVY RAINS OVER
THESE AREAS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
FLASH FLOODING. FORTUNATELY IT HAS BEEN DRY AS OF LATE SO GENERALLY
THE GROUND SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE HEAVY RAIN...AS LONG AS THERE
IS NOT TOO MUCH TRAINING OF STORMS...WHICH IS POSSIBLE.
THE OTHER MAIN CONCERN IS FOR LATER TONIGHT AS WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND COLD AIR ADVECTS EASTWARD.
THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG WEST
WINDS...MAINLY IN WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. HAVE
ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS SUCH AS THE
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND FOOTHILLS...ARLINGTON...AND BORDEAUX.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON TUESDAY.
WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
FOR WIND ADVISORY POTENTIAL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
A GOOD CHANCE OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 AS THE TROUGH WILL BE
RATHER PROGRESSIVE. THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ABOVE 8500 FEET WILL SEE
SNOWFALL INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE. SNOW LEVEL SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE VALLEY FLOORS...ALTHOUGH
IT MAY GET CLOSE TO THE LARAMIE VALLEY FOR A TIME LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT LATE NEXT WEEK SHOWING STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE POLAR JET
STREAM SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CANADA. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.
ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...SHOWING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH HIGHS LIKELY AROUND 70 BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
THEN DRIFTS EASTWARD. KEPT POP BELOW 10 PERCENT EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
GOING TO GET A BREAK FROM THE RAIN AND LOWER CIGS THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT LAR AND CYS AROUND 21Z AND THEN SPREAD
NORTH AND EAST INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE DURING THE EARLY
EVENING. SINCE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY...WENT WITH
PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY EVENING OVER THE PLAINS
SITES. RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH
TUES MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OVER THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE AFTN. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION AFTER
06Z WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST. IT WILL BE WINDY
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND
OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY. LESS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INTO CARBON COUNTY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY
INTO THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. STRONG WEST WINDS TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. BREEZY TO WINDY
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. COOL WEATHER WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRYING OUT AND WARMING UP LATE THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON MDT TUESDAY FOR
WYZ106-110-116-117.
NE...FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAHN
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...SML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1131 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
FIRST LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW EAST OF THE CWFA
FOR THE MOST PART WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF ALBANY...
LARAMIE AND PLATTE COUNTIES THIS MORNING. ATMOSPHERIC
DESTABILZIATION ALREADY UNDERWAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ALREADY
BEING REACHED IN THIS AREAS. IN A RECENT UPDATE HAVE BOOSTED HIGHS
3-4F ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY BROKEN OUT LATE THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR CONVECTIVE RE-DEVEOPMENT EXPECTED BY
BETWEEN 1-2 PM PER LATEST HRRR OUTPUT. EVERYTHING STILL CONTINUES
TO POINT TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS...SOME OF WHICH WILL HAVE SEVERE
POTENTIAL GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A CHEYENNE TO ALLIANCE LINE.
THE OTHER CONCERN IS WITH FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THESE AREAS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 1-2 INCHES
OF RAINFALL THIS MORNING...AND WITH ANOTHER 1-2...POTENTIALLY
HIGHER ON THE WAY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...THOUGH IT WAS PRUDENT
TO HOIST A FLOOD WATCH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS
CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 450 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
AN ACTIVE DAY OF WEATHER TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
NOTICEABLE ON RADAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VORTICITY LOBE WHICH IS
LIFTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT THROUGH THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN
SHOT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS
MID AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THIS IS A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM
AND WILL BRING WITH IT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS.
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON MAY SERVE TO SLIGHTLY LIMIT THE
OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT REGARDLESS OF SURFACE
HEATING...UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHOULD MORE THAN COMPENSATE. STRONG
DIFFLUENT/DIVERGENT FLOW AND COOLING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE AMPLE
LIFT AND INSTABILITY RESPECTIVELY. THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL BE
HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN...BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS
WELL AS...TORNADOES. LCL HEIGHTS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE GROUND
SUCH THAT ANY STRONG UPDRAFTS WILL NOT HAVE TO DO MUCH WORK TO
STRETCH AND TILT HORIZONTAL VORTICITY. MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE
SHOWING SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
MUCH OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
ALOFT QUICKLY VEER WITH HEIGHT WHICH IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO
GENESIS. THE MAIN TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL BE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING.
40 TO 50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH ELEVATED CAPE
AROUND 1000 J/KG WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ROBUST UPDRAFTS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. ALTHOUGH FREEZING LEVELS ARE RATHER HIGH
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THEY WILL ONLY BE 7000 TO 9000 FEET AGL BY
00Z THIS EVENING AND FALLING. THIS MEANS HAILS STONES WILL HAVE
NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO MELT BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. WOULD NOT
BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED TO SEE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS WITH A
FEW STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...PARTICULARLY
INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ALSO WORRIED ABOUT HEAVY RAIN. DUAL
POLE RADAR ALREADY SHOWING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LAST EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT CONVECTION FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HEAVY RAINS OVER
THESE AREAS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
FLASH FLOODING. FORTUNATELY IT HAS BEEN DRY AS OF LATE SO GENERALLY
THE GROUND SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE HEAVY RAIN...AS LONG AS THERE
IS NOT TOO MUCH TRAINING OF STORMS...WHICH IS POSSIBLE.
THE OTHER MAIN CONCERN IS FOR LATER TONIGHT AS WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND COLD AIR ADVECTS EASTWARD.
THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG WEST
WINDS...MAINLY IN WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. HAVE
ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS SUCH AS THE
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND FOOTHILLS...ARLINGTON...AND BORDEAUX.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON TUESDAY.
WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
FOR WIND ADVISORY POTENTIAL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
A GOOD CHANCE OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 AS THE TROUGH WILL BE
RATHER PROGRESSIVE. THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ABOVE 8500 FEET WILL SEE
SNOWFALL INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE. SNOW LEVEL SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE VALLEY FLOORS...ALTHOUGH
IT MAY GET CLOSE TO THE LARAMIE VALLEY FOR A TIME LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT LATE NEXT WEEK SHOWING STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE POLAR JET
STREAM SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CANADA. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.
ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...SHOWING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH HIGHS LIKELY AROUND 70 BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
THEN DRIFTS EASTWARD. KEPT POP BELOW 10 PERCENT EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. BETWEEN THE
INDIVIDUAL TSTORM CELLS...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
CONTINUING OVER MOST EASTERN SITES THROUGH LATE MORNING. THIS
BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION WILL NOT LAST LONG HOWEVER...AS
CONVECTION WILL RAPIDLY REDEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS ACROSS THE PLAINS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...WITH SOME STORMS
POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG OR SEVERE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT INTO THE WEST LATER TONIGHT BRINGING
DRIER AIR TO THE REGION BUT ALSO THE THREAT OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS
OVER 45 KNOTS...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND
OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY. LESS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INTO CARBON COUNTY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY
INTO THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. STRONG WEST WINDS TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. BREEZY TO WINDY
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. COOL WEATHER WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRYING OUT AND WARMING UP LATE THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON MDT TUESDAY FOR
WYZ106-110-116-117.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAHN
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...SML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1115 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AT THE PRESENT TIME. THE
RAP AND HRRR MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING A ROUND TO SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL
MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE SAN JUANS
AND NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS.
OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AFTER PASSAGE OF
THE SHORT WAVE...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN TO THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S. WILL KEEP THE FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT THAT HAS
BEEN IN EFFECT GOING OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO...BUT THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE
REGION COULD ALSO PICKUP ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES AROUND WHERE
THEY WERE TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
THE FINAL SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE STATE AFTER THAT. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING AND WARMING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WEATHER WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
EVENTUALLY WARMING TO ALMOST 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1115 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ069>071.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
426 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE...ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 426 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL PA AND IS MOVING EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW JERSEY.
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS PICKING UP MOISTURE OFF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER NEW ENGLAND. THESE
SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHWEST WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ARE MOVING ACROSS SRN VT/BERKSHIRES AND INTO
THE TACONICS THIS MORNING.
THE LATEST 06Z 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE AND THE 06Z RUN OF OUR LOCAL
HIRESWRF ALL SHOW THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AND AFFECT OUR EASTERN ZONES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT...BUT WILL BE NOTICEABLE DUE TO THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY
WEATHER. THE RAIN SHOWERS MAKE MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS THE CAPITAL
REGION/HUDSON VALLEY REGION...BUT MOST AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF
THERE WILL STAY DRY TODAY. ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS MAY AFFECT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE AND SFC OBS
SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF STRATUS AS WELL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EASTWARD TO OUR SOUTH TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...KEEPING THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE.
WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...HAVE SIDED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY
AREAS /UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO OUR EAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ONCE THE CLOUDS FINALLY START TO THIN OUT...ESP FOR ANY
AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S.
MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF CAPE COD...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT 500 HPA. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70
FOR VALLEY AREAS.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH 40S IN MOST AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY DUE TO 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 TO 11 DEGREES
C AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN SETTING UP WITH A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS AS A
LEADING UPPER IMPULSE TRACKS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MEAN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH. THE UPPER IMPULSE GOES
NEGATIVE TILT AND THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL FORCING...IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. COOLING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT..ALONG WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD RESULT IN RATHER
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS INTO THROUGH SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SUNDAY WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE A
PERIOD OF RELATIVE CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN
MOST OTHER AREAS.
ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AROUND TH SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR OVER
OUR REGION AROUND THE MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ONCE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE REGION...MORE PROXIMATE TO THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S SATURDAY...BUT COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THEN...HIGHS AROUND 60 TO MID 60S THROUGH MONDAY...50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST...MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BUILD WEST AND NORTHWEST. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE
BUILT WEST INTO THE REGION...AND BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR
TRENDS...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR...MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR IF AN ISOLATED SHOWER
AFFECTS THE REGION...WITH VCSH ONLY AT KPSF AND KPOU WHERE ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER COULD BE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME PERIODS OF VFR CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL...WHERE THE LEAST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE. VCSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KPSF AND KPOU.
BY EVENING...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD
CONTINUE MAINLY VFR.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS BY THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP
TO 65 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. RH
VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH FOG AND DEW
FORMATION AND NEARLY CALM WINDS.
CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING TO AROUND 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY DUE TO A LACK OF
RECENT RAINFALL.
A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
202 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INPUT PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR LOCATIONS
EAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO GOVE KANSAS. LIGHT
WINDS...MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT AND COOLER AIR ADVECTING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT. SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE DENSE
FOG IS POSSIBLE SO WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHER PLAINS WITH CLOSED CENTER OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO AND COULD BE IN LINE TO IMPACT OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM JUST EAST OF KMCK SOUTH
ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALON THE CO/KS STATE LINE.
WITH FRONT STILL OVER PAR OF THE CWA I CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA
WHERE ML CAPE 500-1500 J/KG IS LINGERING. SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED
ANY CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT SO FAR...AND GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY THREAT
REMAINING EAST AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED BY NAM TO PASS OVER CWA TONIGHT
COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH CONSIDERING
LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. OTHER GUIDANCE IS FAVORING DRY
CONDITIONS...SO DECIDED TO JUST KEEP MINIMAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
PLACE 06-12Z PERIOD. NAM/RAP/SREF HINTING AT STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN CWA WITH MOISTURE POOLING NEAR FRONTAL
ZONE. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS AS MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING AND COULD LIMIT FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHIFTING FRONT FURTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY...LIMITING
SEVERE POTENTIAL AND BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. CURRENTLY THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TO BE AS FORCING
INCREASES FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. I
LIMITED 30-40 POPS TO THE LATE AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTHWEST. I KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
DUE TO BUILDING INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST WEAK FORCING BEHIND FRONTAL
ZONE...THOUGH I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF WE REMAIN DRY UNTIL MAIN
PUSH COMES IN LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S. LACK OF FORCING AND JET WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
ONLY CAUSE FOR CONCERN IS SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOG AROUND KMCK. MOST GUIDANCE HINTS THAT
FOG REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF TERMINAL BUT IT IS A LITTLE CLOSE FOR
COMFORT. PLACED A 6SM BR/SCT015 GROUP AS A HEDGE FOR NOW AND WILL
REFINE THIS GROUP AT THE 06Z RUN. OTHER THAN THAT...EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH PERIODS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
224 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, LOCATED OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AT 00Z
WEDNESDAY, WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL END AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE PANHANDLE
OF TEXAS. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. 850MB
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. UPPER 80S NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. FURTHER NORTHWEST HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATER TODAY, A
WEDGE OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO WESTERN
KANSAS AS A EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND 850MB TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS BOTH IMPROVE BY EARLY
THIS EVENING NORTH OF THIS FRONT WESTERN KANSAS AS THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES CENTRAL COLORADO. 00Z NAM 0-6KM WIND SHEAR
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AT 21Z WEDNESDAY AND 00Z THURSDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 50 KNOTS WITH CAPE VALUES JUST NORTH OF OUR
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL RANGE FROM
1000 TO 2000 J/KG. THIS SUPPORTS THAT IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP
IN THIS AREA THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE ON
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IS NOT HIGH GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY LATE TODAY AND THAT THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS BY
LATE DAY WILL BE WEST OF THIS AREA AND BE CONFINED MAINLY EASTERN
COLORADO/EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS. STILL GIVEN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION IMPROVING EARLY TONIGHT NEAR THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AM STILL UNABLE TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL/NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPROVE AFTER
SUNSET ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BASED ON WHERE THE
700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WILL FAVOR THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT A
REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. 0-1 KM AGL MEAN WINDS FROM THE NAM BEHIND THIS
FRONT FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 30 TO NEAR 40 KNOTS FROM 09Z TO 12Z
THURSDAY. GFS ALSO HAD 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN
KANSAS AT 12Z THURSDAY IN THE 0-1KM LAYER. BASED ON THIS ALONG THE
THE LAYER AVERAGE MIXED LAYER WINDS AND EXPECTED COLD AIR
ADVECTION THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF WHEN WIND SPEEDS APPROACH 30
MPH OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WHERE THE BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. ELSEWHERE
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKED ON TRACK.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM
SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGHT SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PLACE SOUTHWEST KANSAS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY FROM FORMING.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE I-70
CORRIDOR TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER. LOWS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS THEN SLOWLY REBOUND
INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING A SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AROUND DAYBREAK AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. BASED ON THE DEPTH OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
NAM SOUNDINGS AND THE LATEST HRRR WILL INTRODUCE MVFR VISIBILITY
IN MIST AT ALL TAF SITES. AT HAYS WILL ALSO INSERT A PERIOD OF IFR
BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE A LESS THAN
10 KNOTS AND BY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.
THESE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY
LATE MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 82 53 70 46 / 10 30 30 0
GCK 81 51 69 44 / 10 60 20 0
EHA 80 48 69 45 / 10 20 20 0
LBL 82 52 70 46 / 10 20 20 0
HYS 80 52 66 42 / 10 70 40 10
P28 89 61 72 50 / 10 30 30 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
143 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, LOCATED OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AT 00Z
WEDNESDAY, WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL END AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE PANHANDLE
OF TEXAS. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. 850MB
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. UPPER 80S NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. FURTHER NORTHWEST HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATER TODAY, A
WEDGE OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO WESTERN
KANSAS AS A EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND 850MB TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS BOTH IMPROVE BY EARLY
THIS EVENING NORTH OF THIS FRONT WESTERN KANSAS AS THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES CENTRAL COLORADO. 00Z NAM 0-6KM WIND SHEAR
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AT 21Z WEDNESDAY AND 00Z THURSDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 50 KNOTS WITH CAPE VALUES JUST NORTH OF OUR
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL RANGE FROM
1000 TO 2000 J/KG. THIS SUPPORTS THAT IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP
IN THIS AREA THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE ON
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IS NOT HIGH GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY LATE TODAY AND THAT THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS BY
LATE DAY WILL BE WEST OF THIS AREA AND BE CONFINED MAINLY EASTERN
COLORADO/EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS. STILL GIVEN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THTA-E ADVECTION IMPROVING EARLY TONIGHT NEAR THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AM STILL UNABLE TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL/NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPROVE AFTER
SUNSET ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BASED ON WHERE THE
700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WILL FAVOR THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT A
REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. 0-1 KM AGL MEAN WINDS FROM THE NAM BEHIND THIS
FRONT FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 30 TO NEAR 40 KNOTS FROM 09Z TO 12Z
THURSDAY. GFS ALSO HAD 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN
KANSAS AT 12Z THURSDAY IN THE 0-1KM LAYER. BASED ON THIS ALONG THE
THE LAYER AVERAGE MIXED LAYER WINDS AND EXPECTED COLD AIR
ADVECTION THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF WHEN WIND SPEEDS APPROACH 30
MPH OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WHERE THE BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. ELSEWHERE
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKED ON TRACK.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE
MOVING EASTERLY TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HOWEVER, A GOOD
LOBE OF VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL DRAG THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. OUR NORTH AREAS NORTH OF I-70, AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS SUCH AS NEAR SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY, WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 50 PERCENT
RANGE, WHILE 25 TO 35 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OKLAHOMA BORDER BY
MIDNIGHT OR SO. QPF WILL NOT BE TOO HIGH, EXCEPT IN A FEW
STRONGER STORMS, DUE TO THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE
CONVECTION. THE CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL DECREASE TO THE EAST TO NEAR ZERO BY 20Z
OR MID DAY THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED NEARLY
THROUGH ALL OF OUR AREA BY THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY, BUT PLENTY
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE GOING FORECAST
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OF MID 60S IN HAYS TO LOWER 70S IN
MEDICINE LODGE SEEM APPROPRIATE. IT WILL BE WINDY THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT, AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
HOW COLD WILL IT GET THURSDAY NIGHT IS A GOOD QUESTION. WITH FRESHLY
WET GROUND AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH, LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S RANGE ALONG OUR
NORTHWEST BOUNDARY SUCH AS WAKEENEY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, AND
TO NEAR THE 50F DEGREE MARK IN THE COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREAS. NO PRECIPITATION IS FORESEEN BEYOND THURSDAY AT 20Z, AS
THE UPPER FLOW WILL GO STRONGLY NORTHWESTERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE ON FRIDAY AND BE CLOSE TO AS HIGHS WERE ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AS SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GO
LIGHT.
WITH NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALOFT, THE PERIOD SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL GO THROUGH A MILD WARMING TREND, REACHING THE
LOWER TO MID 80S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOTS OF SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PERIOD, AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING A SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AROUND DAYBREAK AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. BASED ON THE DEPTH OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
NAM SOUNDINGS AND THE LATEST HRRR WILL INTRODUCE MVFR VISIBILITY
IN MIST AT ALL TAF SITES. AT HAYS WILL ALSO INSERT A PERIOD OF IFR
BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE A LESS THAN
10 KNOTS AND BY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.
THESE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY
LATE MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 82 53 70 47 / 10 30 20 0
GCK 81 51 69 45 / 10 60 20 0
EHA 80 48 69 46 / 10 20 20 0
LBL 82 52 71 48 / 10 20 20 0
HYS 80 52 67 46 / 10 70 30 10
P28 89 61 73 50 / 10 30 30 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1216 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
AT 00Z WEDNESDAY A 500MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL COLORADO
AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS
ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 200MB JET STREAK.
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS WITH CONVECTION
EARLY THIS EVENING BEING LOCATED ALONG AND EAST OF THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY. AN 850MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND
850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z WEDNESDAY VARIED FROM +18C AT NORTH
PLATTE TO +23C AT AMARILLO. AT THE 700MB LEVEL A +4C TO +7C
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXTENDED FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO NORTHWEST
MISSOURI. FURTHER NORTH A 850MB COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM EAST
CENTRAL WYOMING TO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE A STRONG CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT
AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION. AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA, THE SURFACE TROUGH POSITIONED NEAR AND ALONG
THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S(F). ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL EXIST FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
EXIST TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. STORM INITIATION MAY BE AFFECTED DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG THE
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK LINGERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR, AND
MUCAPE VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG TO NEAR 1000 J/KG WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE QUICKLY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TONIGHT, LOOK FOR LOWS ONCE AGAIN DOWN INTO THE 60S(F). HOWEVER,
THE MID TO UPPER 50S(F) WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO THAT AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE ADVANCING SURFACE TROUGH. FOR WEDNESDAY, WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
THE NAM/GFS SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE 20C ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE UPPER TEENS(C) TO NEAR 20C ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT HIGHS UP INTO THE UPPER 70S(F) ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S(F) IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE
MOVING EASTERLY TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HOWEVER, A GOOD
LOBE OF VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL DRAG THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. OUR NORTH AREAS NORTH OF I-70, AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS SUCH AS NEAR SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY, WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 50 PERCENT
RANGE, WHILE 25 TO 35 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OKLAHOMA BORDER BY
MIDNIGHT OR SO. QPF WILL NOT BE TOO HIGH, EXCEPT IN A FEW
STRONGER STORMS, DUE TO THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE
CONVECTION. THE CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL DECREASE TO THE EAST TO NEAR ZERO BY 20Z
OR MID DAY THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED NEARLY
THROUGH ALL OF OUR AREA BY THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY, BUT PLENTY
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE GOING FORECAST
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OF MID 60S IN HAYS TO LOWER 70S IN
MEDICINE LODGE SEEM APPROPRIATE. IT WILL BE WINDY THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT, AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
HOW COLD WILL IT GET THURSDAY NIGHT IS A GOOD QUESTION. WITH FRESHLY
WET GROUND AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH, LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S RANGE ALONG OUR
NORTHWEST BOUNDARY SUCH AS WAKEENEY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, AND
TO NEAR THE 50F DEGREE MARK IN THE COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREAS. NO PRECIPITATION IS FORESEEN BEYOND THURSDAY AT 20Z, AS
THE UPPER FLOW WILL GO STRONGLY NORTHWESTERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE ON FRIDAY AND BE CLOSE TO AS HIGHS WERE ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AS SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GO
LIGHT.
WITH NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALOFT, THE PERIOD SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL GO THROUGH A MILD WARMING TREND, REACHING THE
LOWER TO MID 80S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOTS OF SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PERIOD, AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING A SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AROUND DAYBREAK AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. BASED ON THE DEPTH OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
NAM SOUNDINGS AND THE LATEST HRRR WILL INTRODUCE MVFR VISIBILITY
IN MIST AT ALL TAF SITES. AT HAYS WILL ALSO INSERT A PERIOD OF IFR
BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE A LESS THAN
10 KNOTS AND BY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.
THESE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY
LATE MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 54 70 47 71 / 30 20 0 0
GCK 51 69 45 71 / 50 20 0 0
EHA 50 69 46 72 / 30 20 0 0
LBL 53 71 48 73 / 20 20 0 0
HYS 53 67 46 67 / 50 30 10 0
P28 60 73 50 73 / 30 30 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
433 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...PUSHING A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED JUST NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA. CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER PA WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT
E-NE TOWARDS SRN ENGLAND AND OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. RESULTANT LOW
LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL SHUNT A WEAK BACK DOOR SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
ONCE AGAIN NOTING SOME PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE
AREA THIS MORNING, INCLUDING SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN SPOTS
ACROSS THE SW PIEDMONT. AS NOTED YDA, LOCAL TRAFFIC CAMERAS
INDICATE THAT LOW VSBYS <1SM AREN`T TOO WIDESPREAD JUST YET...SO
AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAY
NEED TO GO WITH A NARROW DENSE FOG ADVY AREA TOWARDS DAWN IF DENSE
FOG APPEARS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.
AS WITH YDA, EXPECT LOW STRATUS INLAND WL BEGIN TO LIFT SLOWLY BY
MID-MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. KAKQ RADAR CONTINUES TO PICK UP SOME
VERY LGT SHRAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SOME VRY WEAK OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW POP THIS MORNING OVER
THE NE CWA...AND FOR THE AFTN OVER THE PIEDMONT AS THE HRRR IS
KEYING IN ON SOME VERY LIGHT OVERRUNNING MOISTURE/WEAK DVPA ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WHICH COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES OR LGT SHRAS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SUBSIDENCE AND SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WL BRING SOME SHORT LIVED CLEARING LATE THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT. FORECAST MAXIMA RANGE FROM MID TO U70S NORTH AND EASTERN
SHORE TO AROUND 80 SOUTHWEST UNDER A GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY.
E-NE FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT...AND ANOTHER PERIOD
OF LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU. BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE DRY
ABOVE H9 BUT ARE NEARLY SATURATED IN LOW LEVELS. COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE TNGT MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT, BUT W/ CHCS OF
ACCUMULATING PCPN QUITE LOW, WL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.
WENT WITH WARMER ENVELOPE OF NAM GUIDANCE FOR MINIMA TNGT WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED. LOWS GENERALLY U50S TO L60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RACING EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE
SOUTH INTO THE REGION FROM NEW ENGLAND. WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW CHC
POP THU MORNING AS LOW STRATUS/DZ ONCE AGAIN SCOURS OUT.
THEREAFTER, EXPECT VRB CLDS AND DRY WX THU. GGEM AND DOWNSCALE NAM
DO CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME VERY WEAK OVERRUNNING, BUT LIFT
APPEARS TOO SHALLOW TO YIELD MUCH MORE THAN SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHRAS/SPRINKLES, ORIENTED MAINLY WEST OF I-95. ONCE AGAIN, HV
OPTED TO GO DRY FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS THU MANLY FM THE MID 70S TO
ARND 80.
AFOREMENTIONED ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPR TROUGH RACING EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL DIG E-SE ACROSS THROUGH THE MIDWEST/TN VLY THU NGT AND
FRIDAY. E-SE FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCRSG MOISTURE AND OVC CONDITIONS
THU NGT AND FRIDAY AND SOME ISOLD SHRAS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE MOST WIDESPREAD PCPN ASSOCIATED W/ THE APPROACHING
STRONG CDFNT SHOULD REMAIN JUST W OF THE FA FRI AFTN. HI TEMPS FRI
FM THE M/U70S ON THE ERN SHR TO L80S ACRS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SE
VA/NE NC.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NE
INTO SE CANADA ON SUNDAY. STRONG JET ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FROPA AND WILL CARRY HIGH LIKELY
POPS. STRONG FORCING BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO FRIDAY EVENING, SO WILL INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST
AROUND 12Z SAT...W/ SHOWER CHANCES TO END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO
EAST SATURDAY MORNING. WILL LIMIT SHRA CHANCES ON SATURDAY
MORNING TO THE FAR EASTERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR DRY WX. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW LINGERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SPOKE OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS SATURDAY 70-75. COOLER
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 65-70. HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY 70-75.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS VARY FROM LIFR TO IFR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG. THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES AS OF 01/0730Z ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS RURAL AREAS OF
SCNTRL VA FROM GENERALLY KAKQ-KFKN-KEMV...WHERE AREAS OF LOCALLY
DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL BE IFR TO MVFR ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND UP INTO THE EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS OF 5-10KT
AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE KEEPING THE LOWER ATMOSHPERE MIXED...THUS
PREVENTING ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH SCT LOW
STRATUS. CONDITIONS MAY WORSEN BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE BUT SHOULD
IMPROVE 01/1300-1400Z. DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW ANY BREAKS IN
STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING TO FILL BACK IN BY THIS AFTN. LATE DAY
CLEARING IS EXPECTED JUST BEFORE SUNSET...HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW ANOTHER
INFLUX OF CLOUDS INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT (CIGS ABOVE 8 KFT AGL). DRY
WX IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY FRI BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EACH NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. STRENGTHENING WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE
FROPA SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN ADDITION TO MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL AT
TIMES.
&&
.MARINE...
N-NE WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AROUND 10 KT OR LESS EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN WATERS. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS PA AND THEN NE ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY...BEFORE PUSHING WELL OFF THE COAST ON
THURSDAY. WINDS TODAY THRU THURSDAY WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE N OR NE
AOB 15KT. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
WED...HIGHEST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. SWAN GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS TO
AROUND 5FT NEAR 20NM MORE AGGRESSIVELY THAN WAVEWATCH. DUE TO WEAK
CAA AND A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...HAVE KEPT 5FT SEAS JUST BEYOND THE 20NM MARK FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THEREFORE NO SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE S-SW FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH CROSSES
INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS THEN QUICKLY SWING AROUND TO THE
NW BEHIND THE FRONT BY SATURDAY AFTN. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE
FRI INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
414 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...PUSHING A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED JUST NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA. CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER PA WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT
E-NE TOWARDS SRN ENGLAND AND OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. RESULTANT LOW
LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL SHUNT A WEAK BACK DOOR SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
ONCE AGAIN NOTING SOME PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE
AREA THIS MORNING. NOTING SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN SPOTS ACROSS
THE SW PIEDMONT. AS NOTED YDA, LOCAL TRAFFIC CAMERAS INDICATING
THAT LOW VSBYS AREN`T TOO WIDESPREAD JUST YET...SO AN SPS HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR NOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAY NEED TO GO WITH A
NARROW DENSE FOG ADVY AREA TOWARDS DAWN IF DENSE FOG APPEARS MORE
WIDESPREAD. WENT WITH A FORECAST SIMILAR TO THAT OF YDA, WITH LOW
STRATUS INLAND LIFTING SLOWLY BY MIDDAY. KAKQ RADAR CONTINUES TO
PICK UP SOME VERY LGT SHRAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SOME VRY WEAK OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW POP THIS MORNING OVER THE
NE CWA...AND FOR THE AFTN OVER THE PIEDMONT AS THE HRRR IS KEYING
IN ON SOME VERY LIGHT OVERRUNNING MOISTURE/WEAK DVPA ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WHICH COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES OR LGT SHRAS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SUBSIDENCE AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WL BRING SOME SHORT LIVED CLEARING LATE THIS
AFTN AND TONIGHT. FORECAST MAXIMA RANGE FROM MID TO U70S NORTH
AND EASTERN SHORE TO AROUND 80 SOUTHWEST UNDER A GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
E-NE FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT...AND ANOTHER PERIOD
OF LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU. BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE DRY
ABOVE H9 BUT ARE NEARLY SATURATED IN LOW LEVELS. COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE TNGT MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT, BUT WL GO WITH
A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. WENT WITH WARMER NAM GUIDANCE WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED. LOWS GENERALLY U50S TO L60S.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RACING EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE
SOUTH INTO THE REGION FROM NEW ENGLAND. WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW CHC POP
THU MORNING AS LOW STRATUS/DZ ONCE AGAIN SCOURS OUT. THEREAFTER,
EXPECT VRB CLDS AND DRY WX THU. GGEM AND DOWNSCALE NAM DO CONTINUE
TO HINT AT SOME VERY WEAK OVERRUNNING, BUT LIFT APPEARS TOO SHALLOW
TO YIELD MUCH MORE THAN SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN MAINLY WEST OF I-95.
ACCORDINGLY, HV GONE DRY FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS THU MANLY FM THE MID
70S TO ARND 80.
AFOREMENTIONED ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPR TROUGH RACING EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL DIG E-SE ACROSS THROUGH THE MIDWEST/TN VLY THU NGT AND
FRIDAY. E-SE FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCRSG MOISTURE AND OVC CONDITIONS
THU NGT AND FRIDAY AND SOME ISOLD SHRAS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE MOST WIDESPREAD PCPN ASSOCIATED W/ THE APPROACHING
STRONG CDFNT SHOULD REMAIN JUST W OF THE FA FRI AFTN. HI TEMPS FRI
FM THE M/U70S ON THE ERN SHR TO L80S ACRS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SE
VA/NE NC.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NE
INTO SE CANADA ON SUNDAY. STRONG JET ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FROPA AND WILL CARRY HIGH LIKELY
POPS. STRONG FORCING BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO FRIDAY EVENING. WITH THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST AROUND 12Z SAT...SHOWER CHANCES WILL
QUICKLY COME TO AND END FROM WEST TO EAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WILL
LIMIT SHWR CHANCES ON SATURDAY MORNING TO THE FAR EASTERN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR DRY WX. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW LINGERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
SATURDAY 70-75. COOLER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 65-70. HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY
70-75.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS VARY FROM LIFR TO IFR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG. THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES AS OF 01/0730Z ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS RURAL AREAS OF
SCNTRL VA FROM GENERALLY KAKQ-KFKN-KEMV...WHERE AREAS OF LOCALLY
DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL BE IFR TO MVFR ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND UP INTO THE EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS OF 5-10KT
AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE KEEPING THE LOWER ATMOSHPERE MIXED...THUS
PREVENTING ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH SCT LOW
STRATUS. CONDITIONS MAY WORSEN BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE BUT SHOULD
IMPROVE 01/1300-1400Z. DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW ANY BREAKS IN
STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING TO FILL BACK IN BY THIS AFTN. LATE DAY
CLEARING IS EXPECTED JUST BEFORE SUNSET...HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW ANOTHER
INFLUX OF CLOUDS INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT (CIGS ABOVE 8 KFT AGL). DRY
WX IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY FRI BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EACH NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. STRENGTHENING WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE
FROPA SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN ADDITION TO MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL AT
TIMES.
&&
.MARINE...
N-NE WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AROUND 10 KT OR LESS EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN WATERS. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS PA AND THEN NE ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY...BEFORE PUSHING WELL OFF THE COAST ON
THURSDAY. WINDS TODAY THRU THURSDAY WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE N OR NE
AOB 15KT. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
WED...HIGHEST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. SWAN GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS TO
AROUND 5FT NEAR 20NM MORE AGGRESSIVELY THAN WAVEWATCH. DUE TO WEAK
CAA AND A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...HAVE KEPT 5FT SEAS JUST BEYOND THE 20NM MARK FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THEREFORE NO SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE S-SW FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH CROSSES
INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS THEN QUICKLY SWING AROUND TO THE
NW BEHIND THE FRONT BY SATURDAY AFTN. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE
FRI INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
134 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHARP UPR RDG
EXTENDING FM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY N INTO NW ONTARIO...SUPPORTING
SFC HI PRES JUST N OF LK SUP. ALTHOUGH THE MID TROP IS QUITE DRY...
WITH 12Z H5 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS AS HI AS 45C AT MPX AND QUAD CITIES...
LINGERING LLVL MSTR TO THE S OF THE HI CENTER AND BLO SHARP
SUBSIDENCE INVRN ARND H9-925 CAUSED QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD TO PERSIST
OVER THE UPR LKS THRU THE MRNG. DAYTIME HEATING THAT HAS CAUSED THE
LCL TO RISE THRU THE SLOWLY SINKING INVRN BASE PER FCST SDNGS IS
RESULTING IN STEADY BREAKUP OF THE LO CLD EARLY THIS AFTN. THE LO
CLDS HAVE BEEN MOST RESILIENT OVER THE CENTRAL...WHERE LLVL NE WIND
IS UPSLOPING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY TILTED SHRTWV
IS LIFTING NNEWD THRU THE NRN PLAINS. DESPITE THE MID LVL DRY AIR IN
PLACE...SOME SHOWERS/TS IN THE RATHER NARROW WARM CONVEYOR BELT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ARE MOVING INTO SW MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON CLD TRENDS. FCST
CONCERNS ON WED SHIFT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE
INCRSG SLY FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE E OF SHRTWV MOVING THRU THE
NRN PLAINS INTO SCENTRAL CANADA.
TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE LO CLDS WL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE INTO THE EVNG
WITH THE IMPACTS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...NOCTURNAL COOLING AND
VEERING WINDS TO THE S THAT WL BRING A RETURN OF MOISTER H95-9 AIR
SHOULD RESULT IN MORE LO CLDS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD
BE SOME DRIZZLE OVER THE CENTRAL WHERE EXPECTED SSE WIND WL UPSLOPE
OFF LK MI. THE ONE EXCEPTION WL BE OVER THE W...WHERE THE S WIND WL
DOWNSLOPE AND PREVENT/LIMIT THE REFORMATION OF THE LO CLDS. OTRW...
SOME MID/HI CLDS ON THE ERN FLANK OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR
RIBBON MOVING E THRU WL INVADE THE W OVERNGT. THE COMBINATION OF
LINGERING LO CLDS AND/OR INCRSG SLY FLOW WITH H925 WINDS INCRSG UP
TO 20-30 KTS BY 12Z WED WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. BUT TEMPS
SHOULD STILL FALL INTO THE 30S AT SOME OF THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS
THAT SEE MOCLR SKIES FOR A TIME.
WED...ALTHOUGH THE PASSAGE OF SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING DPVA AND DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WELL TO THE W THRU MANITOBA WL LIMIT THE PCPN
POTENTIAL OVER UPR MI...RATHER NARROW WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON
AND AREA OF H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC AND BAND OF H85-7 FGEN IN
RRQ OF 80KT H3 JET MAX LIFTING NNEWD THRU NW ONTARIO WL BRING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE W IN THE AFTN. CONSIDERING THE STRONG
DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND APPRECIABLE DEEP MOISTENING THAT IS FCST TO
RAISE PWAT NEAR 1.5 INCHES /UP TO 200 PCT OF NORMAL/ BY 00Z THU...HI
LIKELY POPS SEEM APPROPRIATE OVER THE FAR W. ALTHOUGH THE MID LVLS
OVER THE E WL REMAIN DRY...FCST SDNGS INDICATE LO CLDS WL PERSIST
MOST OF THE DAY IN THAT AREA AND LIMIT THE DAYTIME TEMP RECOVERY.
BUT WITH STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW BRINGING A RETURN OF H85 TEMPS AS HI
AS 12-13C...MAX TEMPS WL RISE ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
BY 00Z THURSDAY THE AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH
MOISTURE STREAMING N FROM THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. THE INITIAL
SHORTWAVE WILL BE CROSSING THE CWA. WITH STEADY S WINDS AND 850MB
TEMPS NEAR 11C...EXPECT THE FCST LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S TO
HOLD. WHILE THIS INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE A QUARTER TO
HALF AN INCH OF LIQUID...THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE WHEN THE 500MB LOW SET UP ACROSS MAINLY ONTARIO DIVES
ACROSS MN...AND THE SFC LOW ACROSS MO/IA QUICKLY DEEPENS TO AROUND
998MB ACROSS THE W HALF OF UPPER MI LATE THURSDAY EVENING...AND TO
AROUND 988MB BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY OVER N LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR WINDS
TO RAPIDLY INCREASE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR W UPPER MI
OVERNIGHT.
THE SFC LOW WILL SHIFT UP ACROSS JAMES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALLOWING MUCH COOLER AIR TO SURGE INTO THE REGION. THE GFS
LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST WIND WISE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GALE
FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THROUGH THE E HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TO GRAND MARAIS. WHILE THIS MAY BE POSSIBLE...LESS
FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTIONS OFF THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE NOT BACKING THIS
UP QUITE YET. GALES WILL BE STILL BE POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS
PERIOD...BUT WILL KEEP MORE OF A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE TIME BEING
UNTIL MODELS COME MORE IN LINE. WILL KEEP THE TS POTENTIAL IN
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE...AND STILL
MAINLY KEEPING IT OVER UPPER MI/LAKE MI.
THE SFC LOW WILL NOT EXIT FAST...AND WILL KEEP A TROUGH ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY. THE 500MB LOW WILL SWING ACROSS
UPPER MI FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF -23
TO -29C AT 500MB ROTATING ACROSS UPPER MI AND WI. WE ARE BACK TO
THAT TIME OF YEAR WHERE COOL NIGHTS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS OFF OF THE WARM LAKES WILL HELP PRODUCE
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
THE SFC RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. WITH A LESS FAVORABLE WIND
DIRECTION...THIS SHOULD BE THE DRIEST PERIOD DURING THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014
AREAS OF DRIZZLE HAVE DEVELOPED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WHILE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO EXPAND WITH
EASTERLY FLOW ABOVE THE SFC. LATEST NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
IFR/LIFR CIGS AT KSAW THIS AM WITH SIMILAR CIGS BUT NOT AS
PERSISTENT...AT KCMX. AS KSAW TO EXPERIENCE UPSLOPE FLOW WHILE KCMX
EVENTUALLY GETS WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW LATER THIS AM EXPECT CIGS TO
VARY MUCH MORE WITH IFR/LIFR OCCASIONALLY INTERRUPTED BY MVFR UNTIL
THE WINDS FINALLY GO MORE S. SHORT RANGE MODELS STILL HINTING THAT
KIWD TO SEE POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST NAM
BUFKIT. HAVE ONLY CARRIED THE IFR IN A TEMPO GROUP AS WINDS TO SHIFT
S AT KIWD WHICH SHOULD ERODE AND LOW CIGS. SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE
KIWD AREA AFTER 18Z AND REACH KCMX BY 0Z BUT CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
STAY MVFR OR BETTER. AT KSAW...UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH
INCREASING RH TO RESULT IN REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS LATE IN THE
FORECAST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
HIGH PRESSURE OF OVER N ONTARIO WILL MOVE E TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN NE WILL LIFT ACROSS S MANITOBA WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
TO HUDSON BAY THURSDAY MORNING. A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL MOVE E...REACHING LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY. A LOW WILL FORM
ALONG THIS TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY THURSDAY EVENING AND THEN
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS INTO N ONTARIO FRIDAY...AND TO HUDSON BAY FRIDAY
NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W PLAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SETTLE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...AS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE HUDSON BAY LOW LINGERS OVER
N ONTARIO. A PERIOD OF NEAR GALES OUT OF THE W-NW WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
433 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A COMPACT 995 MB LOW NEAR RUGBY
/ND/ WITH A TRAILING SFC COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT DOWN THROUGH THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS THAT EVENTUALLY WORKS INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. TO
THE EAST...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE ACROSS ONTARIO...BUT DRY
SE WINDS EMANATING FROM IT HAVE REALLY IMPEDED THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE MPX CWA...TO THIS POINT ANYWAYS. ALOFT...THE
FEATURE OF INTEREST SHOWS UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING
INTO WRN KS...AND THIS WAVE WILL BE OVER SRN MN BY THE AFTERNOON.
SE WINDS EMANATING FROM THE GREAT LAKES HIGH HAS HELD SFC DEWPS IN
THE 40S ACROSS ERN MN/WRN WI THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH COMBINED WITH
THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE AND ITS FORCING GOING DUE NORTH THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO SRN CANADA...BYPASSING THE MPX AREA TO THE
NW...RESULTED IN THE MPX CWA REMAINING MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...AS THE KS WAVE APPROACHES...CONTINUED HEIGHT FALLS OUT
AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE ERN HALF
OF THE MPX AREA WITHIN THE ZONE OF GREATEST ASCENT WITHIN THE
LLJ...WHICH WILL BE WORKING UP THROUGH WRN WI. HI-RES REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS CERTAINLY BEAR THE LOOK OF A LIMITED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FORECAST...SO HAVE CONTINUE TO HOLD A THUNDER MENTION THROUGH THE
DAY AT ISOLATED. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF QPF WITH A GOOD
HALF TO ONE RAIN OF RAIN FALLING TODAY ALONG/EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...USED A PRETTY MUCH EVEN MODEL BLEND FOR
QPF...WHICH RESULTED IN THE DESIRED HALF TO ONE INCH AMOUNTS. OF
COURSE WITH THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN FALLING INTO AN AIRMASS WITH DEWPS
CURRENTLY IN THE 40S...IT WILL NOT WARM UP MUCH TODAY...SO COOLED
HIGHS ACROSS ERN MN/WRN WI...KEEPING THEM MAINLY IN THE 50S.
OUT IN WRN MN...DID INTRODUCE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS OUT THERE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE THREAT FOR SEEING ISO-SCT
SHOWERS/STORM DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BE
ENTERING WRN MN DURING PEAK HEATING. MOST GUIDANCE POINTS TO SOME
BREAKS DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON OUT WEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S. THE NAM SHOWS 500-1000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE WORKING EAST WITH THE FRONT TODAY...SO FELT SOME 20/30 POPS
WERE WARRANTED OUT WEST WITH THE HRRR SHOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT BY THE AFTERNOON AND THE 01.00 ECMWF
SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT QPF OUT IN WRN MN ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AS WELL.
FOR TONIGHT...DRIED OUT THE ENTIRE CWA AFTER 6Z AS THE KS WAVE WILL
BE WELL OFF INTO NRN MN BY THEN...WITH ANY ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT
LOSING INTEREST WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. BY 12Z THU...THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE MN/WI BORDER. WINDS WILL BE CALM/LIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SO WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WATCH
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS ERN MN/WRN WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD IN THE 7-DAY FORECAST IS THE THU-FRI
TIME FRAME WITH A DEEP TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA THAT IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER MT/ID/NV BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WE DELAYED THE ONSET
OF PRECIP ON THURSDAY TO INCLUDE A MORE DEFINED BREAK IN THE
PRECIP BETWEEN THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE ONE EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK. THIS
ENTIRE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND THERE HAS
ALSO BEEN AN EASTWARD TREND IN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE 10.00Z
NAM WAS THE FARTHEST WEST AND THUS WETTEST SOLUTION FOR THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT EVEN THE 10.06Z GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED EAST -
ALTHOUGH THE NAM STILL HAS REALLY GOOD FGEN AND HEAVY BANDED
PRECIP IN WESTERN WI AND FAR EASTERN MN FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WAS
ALSO AN EASTWARD SHIFT WITH 10.00Z ECMWF. THE GFS SORT OF SPLITS
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM AND ECMWF. THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
PRECIP LOCALLY IS DUE TO THE DEVELOPING DRY SLOT WITH MOST OF THE
PRECIP POTENTIALLY SLIDING EAST. EVEN IF MOST OF THE PRECIP
SLIDES EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...THE POTENT UPPER
WAVE SHOULD PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION
AND STRONG WINDS DURING THE DAY.
FRIDAY LOOKS QUITE BLUSTERY AND WE ARE NOW THINKING MANY LOCATIONS
MIGHT NOT EVEN HIT 50 FOR A HIGH. THE GUSTY WINDS...CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN WILL MAKE THE UPPER 40S FEEL EVEN COOLER. SPEAKING OF
THE WIND...WE WILL LIKELY BE WITHIN 5-10 MPH OF WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN MN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A HIGH BUILDS
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SPEED OF THE MSLP PRESSURE FALLS IS
NOT WELL AGREED UPON AMONGST THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF. THE CIPS ANALOGS
FOR FRIDAY ARE NOT VERY CONVINCING FOR WIND ADVISORY...BUT STILL
SHOW PLENTY OF WIND AND ALSO MATCH MANY OCTOBER DAYS WHERE MN/WI
STAYED IN THE 40S FOR HIGHS. NONETHELESS...WE HAVE SUSTAINED 25-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THE FORECAST FOR MN SIMPLY BASED ON
THE NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING REALLY GOOD MIXING WITH
THE COLD ADVECTION AND 40-50KTS AT 850MB BY 00Z SATURDAY.
FOR THE MOST PART WE THINK THE COMING WEEKEND WILL BE DRY...BUT
STILL QUITE COOL. THERE HAS BEEN SOME RUNS SHOWING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF LONGWAVE
TROUGH WHICH ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER UPPER MISS...GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST US EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...A VAST MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ATTACHED TO THE CORE OF THE TROUGH WHERE
THERE IS MUCH BETTER LIFT. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE NEXT WEEK
WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE TROUGH ANCHORED AND THE ECMWF BEING MUCH
MORE PROGRESSIVE IN BUILDING HEIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
DEEP LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD
INTO CENTRAL CANADA THRU TMRW. CONDITIONS ARE GOOD FOR LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT THRU MUCH OF THE DAY TMRW. THE MAIN
ROUND OF RAIN LOOKS TO DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK AND SHORTLY
THEREAFTER...LASTING INTO THE EARLY AFTN HRS. THIS ROUND OF
PRECIP LOOKS HEAVY ENOUGH TO INDICATE SOME VSBY RESTRICTION DUE
TO THE HEAVIER AND STEADIER EXPECTED PRECIP...WHILE ALSO SLIGHTLY
RAISING CEILINGS. ONCE THE PRECIP ENDS...THE LOW CEILINGS WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO ERODE SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF ERN TAF SITES
/KMSP-KRNH-KEAU/ REMAINED NO BETTER THAN MVFR THRU LATE AFTN AND
POSSIBLY THRU 00Z TMRW EVE. BREEZY SE WINDS THIS EVE WILL SETTLE
DOWN TO CLOSE TO 10 KT...THEN BECOME BREEZY AGAIN TMRW AFTN.
KMSP...CONDS TO DETERIORATE TOVERNIGHT AS MVFR CIGS DEVELOP THEN
DROP TO IFR LOW STRATUS CEILINGS. NOT LOOKING FOR FOG WITH WINDS
BEING ELEVATED. MAIN BATCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND
DAYBREAK TMRW...POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE MRNG RUSH WITH MVFR
VSBY...AND POSSIBLY LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. RAIN
TO LINGER THRU MIDDAY BUT EVEN AFTER ENDING...IFR CONDS LIKELY TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THRU LATE DAY BEFORE EVENING IMPROVEMENT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MAINLY MVFR WITH CHC -SHRA. WINDS WNW 20G30 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
408 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
...TODAY THE PROLONGED STRETCH OF VERY NICE WX WE`VE EXPERIENCED
SINCE MID SEP ENDS WITH MORE RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
TEMPORARY BUT NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN THU-FRI...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
ALOFT: A SHORTWAVE TROF WAS MOVING THRU EARLY THIS MORNING AND
HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH CLOUDS AND EVEN TSTMS
OVER FILLMORE/THAYER COUNTIES. ANOTHER MORE POTENT/AMPLIFIED TROF
WAS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. THIS TROF WILL CONT E AND WILL BE
MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS AT SUNRISE TOMORROW WITH ITS WAVELENGTH
SHORTENING.
SURFACE: A STATIONARY FRONT BISECTED CNTRL NEB/KS. THIS FRONT
WILL SHOW A GENERAL TENDENCY TO DRIFT E TODAY AND THEN ACCELERATE
S AND E OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR NEAR
PUB TODAY AND WILL LATCH ONTO THE FRONT TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL BE
A PLAYER IN OUR WX THU-FRI.
EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDY MOST AREAS WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE
VISIBILITIES IN PATCHY FOG. THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF 1/4SM
VISIBILITY AT TIMES. THE ONLY AREA THAT HAS HAD SUSTAINED 1/4SM IN
DENSE FOG IS LXN. IF THIS CONTS WE WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WX
STATEMENT /SPS/ BEFORE THE MORNING COMMUTE ENSUES.
SOME SHWRS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM THE SANDHILLS DOWN TO CUSTER
COUNTY. THESE SHWRS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL PORTION OF THE
COMMA CLOUD OVER CNTRL NEB AND COULD SKIRT THRU AREAS ALONG AND N
OF I-80 THRU 9 AM.
TODAY: WHATEVER FOG/STRATUS IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING SHOULD BEGIN
ERODING 9-10 AM AND BE GONE BY 1 PM. HOWEVER...THIS IS BASED JUST ON
PAST EXPERIENCE. THE MODELS DO NOT HANDLE STRATUS WELL. THE EDGES
OF THE STRATUS ARE NEARBY...SO DAYTIME HEATING AND BL MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR EROSION AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION. FOR WHAT IT`S
WORTH...THE 00Z NAM LOW CLOUD FCST INDICATES IMPROVEMENT...BUT THE
LAST AREAS TO IMPROVE WILL BE ALONG THE NEB HWY 81 CORRIDOR. THE
06Z HRRR IS ON BOARD WITH IMPROVEMENT FROM THE W. IT COULD
POTENTIALLY TAKE UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON TO CLEAR OUT THERE.
AS FOR AFTERNOON TSTM POTENTIAL. IT LOOKS DOUBTFUL IN THIS FCSTRS
ESTIMATION. WHILE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROFS DURING PEAK HEATING AND WEAK
LOW-LVL WINDS MEANS A LACK OF BL CONVERGENCE. FURTHERMORE...THERE
IS A LOT OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND CONSENSUS OF MOS
AND MODEL 2M TEMPS IS THAT DWPTS WILL MIX DOWN INTO THE 40S W OF
HWY 281 AND 50S TO THE E. THE EASTWARD DRIFT OF THE FRONT WILL
ALSO SHOVE HIGHER DWPTS E OF THE FCST AREA. THAT WILL CREATE CINH
WHICH SHOULD PUT A CAP ON POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION...
ESPECIALLY WITHOUT SOME HELP ALOFT. COORDINATED WITH SPC AND
PENDING EVALUATION OF MORNING SOUNDINGS...THEY MAY SCALE BACK THE
SLGT RISK AREA. VERY LOW POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM
...BUT COVERAGE JUST LOOKS WAY TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A SLGT.
WHILE THE 15Z AND 21Z SREF INDICATED SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TSTMS...THE 03Z CAME IN DRY IN THE 21Z-00Z TIME FRAME.
IF SOMETHING CAN FORM...SREF MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG IS FCST.
LOW-LVL WINDS WILL BE WEAK...BUT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35 KTS. WILL CONT MENTION IN THE HWO
BUT KNOW THAT THIS IS CONDITIONAL BASED IN "IF" A TSTM OR TWO
FORMS AT ALL.
HIGH TEMPS ARE BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE BASED ON STRATUS AND HOW
LONG IT LINGERS. AREAS ALONG HWY 81 YESTERDAY STAYED IN THE 60S
FOR HIGHS BECAUSE CLOUDS LINGERED LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.
SO BOTTOM LINE FOR TODAY...CLOUDY TO START WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING.
SHOULD BE A NICE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY.
TONIGHT: BECOMING CLOUDY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL
SUPERIMPOSE SUBSTANTIAL QG FORCING/LIFT OVERTOP THE FRONTAL
SURFACE... RESULTING IN DEEP LIFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BURST OF
SHWRS AND TSTMS...ALTHOUGH WANING INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY BRING
THE THREAT OF THUNDER TO AN END FROM NW-SE. FRONTOGENETIC BANDING
POTENTIAL SUGGESTS THIS COULD RESULT IN A SWATH OF HEALTHY
RAINFALL (0.75" TO 1") FOR SOME PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
A COUPLE OF UPPER TROUGHS/COLD FRONTS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
MILD WEATHER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. STARTING ON THURSDAY...AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WHICH DEVELOPS WED NIGHT WILL BE ONGOING
THURSDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES AND
CANNOT RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE BEFORE PCPN ENDS
W/E BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST DURING THE DAY...REACHING IA/EASTERN
KS IN THE AFTN. H85 TEMPS DROP NEARLY 10C FROM WED TO THURS BEHIND
THE FRONT AND HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID
60S.
AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THURSDAY...THE NEXT ONE WILL
BE ON ITS HEELS...DIVING SOUTH FM SASKATCHEWAN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT REACHES OUR NW CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND RAPIDLY SWEEPS
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THREE HOUR PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT
AVERAGE 3 TO 6 MB AND THE NOCTURNAL FROPA WILL BE NOTICEABLE WITH
AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS OVER 30/40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS N/NW NEBRASKA MAY
GENERATE LIGHT PCPN IN VCNTY OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...BUT WITH LLVL
MOISTURE LACKING HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY WITH SILENT POPS BUT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR PERHAPS A SPRINKLE MENTION.
FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO A COOL WINDY DAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES INTO IOWA. THE SFC GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT THRU THE DAY IN
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW/COLD FRONT TO THE EAST AND A 1025MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING ABOVE H85 WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
AVERAGING 40KTS AND IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE WILL LIKELY NEED A
WIND ADVISORY FRIDAY. IN CAA...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL ONLY AVERAGE IN
THE 50S/LOW 60S.
BIGGER CHANGES IN THE FORECAST COME IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD IN
THE COLD AIRMASS...AND WE COULD SEE THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON
IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. THE SFC GRADIENT RELAXES FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW DEPARTS AND THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS DEVELOP THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SFC DPS ARE PROGGED IN THE 20S AND TEMPS SHOULD EASILY DROP INTO
THE 30S FOR LOWS. HAVE WENT WITH TEMPS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
ACROSS OUR W/NW CWA...WITH MID 30S FARTHER SOUTH...AND THIS IS
BASED ON A BLEND AND THERE IS MODEL SUPPORT FOR TEMPS A SEVERAL
DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS FORECAST. WILL INCLUDE THE COLD TEMPS IN
THE HWO IF TRENDS CONTINUE MAY NEED A FREEZE/FROST HEADLINE AS
THINGS GET CLOSER.
AFTER A COLD START TO THE WEEKEND SATURDAY MORNING...TEMPS WILL
TREND UP OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN HEIGHT RISES
BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO
ONTARIO AND ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE BACK SIDE...WE COULD SEE
SOME COOLER AIR BACKING IN FROM THE EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BUT THE AIRMASS CHANGE WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. CONDITIONS ARE STILL
PREDOMINANTLY DRY SUNDAY THRU TUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
REST OF TONIGHT: VLIFR STRATUS SHOULD REMAINED LOCKED IN AROUND
200 FT. VSBYS WILL BE VARIABLE BETWEEN MVFR AND VLIFR IN FOG.
BELIEVE VSBYS WILL DECAY TO 1/2SM BY 10Z AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO
1/4SM. LIGHT SE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS...BUT A WINDSHIFT COULD MOVE IN
SHIFTING WINDS TO SW OR W.
CONFIDENCE: LOW
WED: VLIFR FOG/STRATUS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE BEGINNING 15Z WITH
CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING VFR 17Z-18Z. LIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDSHIFT BOUNDARIES MAKE WIND DIRECTION
UNCERTAIN...BUT SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: LOW...ESPECIALLY WITH TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
WED EVE: VFR WITH MID-HIGH CIGS INVADING FROM THE W AT AND ABOVE
15K FT. A COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY PASS THRU BY 00Z SHIFTING
WINDS TO N LESS THAN 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1245 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
JUST PUBLISHED A SIGNIFICANT ENHANCED SHORT-TERM FCST /ESTF/
UPDATE.
WE MAY NEED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE FCST AREA BEFORE
DAWN.
THIS AFTERNOON THERE WAS A SUBSTANTIAL DWPT BOUNDARY BISECTING THE
FCST AREA FROM BVN-GRI-PHG-HLC. STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ON THE MOIST
SIDE. WINDS ARE CONSIDERABLY MORE SE THAN EXPECTED 24 HRS AGO AND
THIS HAS TRANSPORTED THESE HIGHER DWPTS NW. THE DWPT AT EAR
DROPPED TO 43F...BUT NOW WAS IN THE LOW 60S. SO FOG HAS DEVELOPED.
AND WHILE ODX/LXN ARE STILL 10SM CLR...THE TREND IS ESTABLISHED
AND THE GOES FOG PRODUCT HAS IT. STRATUS/FOG WILL BE INVADING
SHORTLY.
SO CLOUDS/FOG HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED THRU 18Z. AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
IMPROVEMENT IN FOG/STRATUS UNTIL 15Z. BASED ON INCREASING CLOUDS
...HAVE ADJUSTED TEMP/DWPTS UPWARD W OF HWY 183 WHERE THEY SHOULD
THEN HOLD STEADY THE REST OF THE NIGHT UNDER THE STRATUS.
THE HRRR IS INDICATING A WINDSHIFT TO THE W TO MOVE INTO THE WRN
HALF OF THE FCST AREA BEFORE SUNRISE. THIS COMPLICATES THE FCST
AND LOWERS CONFIDENCE AS IT COULD ADVECT LOWER DWPTS BACK IN...
REDUCING THE STRATUS/FOG. ANOTHER COMPLICATION IS THE THICK MID-
HIGH CLOUDS OVER WRN NEB/KS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROF. THE AFFECT THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE ON THE STRATUS
REMAINS UNCLEAR.
TSTMS CONT TO FORM BETWEEN HSI AND HJH. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. 88D ESTIMATES 3-4"
OF RAIN FELL OVER ERN THAYER COUNTY. THE AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGE AT
ALEXANDRIA MEASURED 3.31" SINCE 8 PM. SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
HYDRO ISSUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF A ~40KT JET
STREAK JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...WITH THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS JET STREAK CLIPPING OUR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THERMAL ADVECTION ALONG THIS AXIS APPEARS AS
THOUGH IT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST...A SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC. THAT SAID...SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
FROM SEVERAL MODELS REMAIN VERY PESSIMISTIC WITH RESPECT TO
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT AND WITH THE
PRIMARY JET STREAK AXIS REMAINING TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT CERTAINLY
SEEMS TO BE A FAIR ARGUMENT. THAT SAID...OF ANY TIME PERIOD
BETWEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND 12Z WEDNESDAY...THE 03-09Z TIME
PERIOD SEEMS TO HOLD THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION ACROSS OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD
AND RELEGATED THE HIGHEST POPS...~50%...TO OUR SOUTHEAST 03-09Z
TONIGHT.
THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...POST-SUNRISE...WILL LIKELY
PRESENT A DRY PERIOD TO THE AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC JET AXIS WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST 12-18Z AS A RESULT. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOWEVER...INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
THERMAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
WEST...WORKING IN CONCERT WITH THE THERMALLY-INDIRECT CIRCULATION
WITHIN THE LEFT- FRONT QUADRANT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK...COULD BE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION MOST ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT
AHEAD WITH 20-40% POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH POPS INCREASING TO AROUND 70% AFTER 06Z
THURSDAY FOR MANY LOCATIONS AS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS
DRAWS CLOSER TO THE AREA THUS RESULTING IN INCREASING OMEGA.
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE CLOSED LOW/SHORT WAVE REMAINING
WELL NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA. THAT SAID...AFTERNOON SURFACE DEW
POINT READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE HELPING PROMOTE
POTENTIAL ENERGY VALUES OF 1000-1500J/KG ACROSS OUR EAST
SOUTHEAST. DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40KTS ARE
ALSO IN EXISTENCE. GIVEN ALL THIS...IT CERTAINLY SEEMS
POSSIBLE...SHOULD CONVECTION BE REALIZED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THAT A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS COULD BE
REALIZED AND WILL CONTINUE SUCH MENTION IN THE HWO. LOOKING AHEAD
TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS
SHOULD NOT CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND AS A RESULT...WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING POTENTIAL ENERGY VALUES TO BE CLOSER TO
2000J/KG. IN ADDITION...INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY
SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN INCREASING DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR...WITH
VALUES CLOSER TO 45 OR 50KTS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA
ON WEDNESDAY. FINALLY...A BACKED BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD TO THE
SOUTH OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY ALSO PROMOTE LOCALLY ENHANCED
BOUNDARY-LAYER SRH VALUES THUS PROMOTING THE POSSIBILITY OF
TORNADIC ACTIVITY. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING TORNADIC ACTIVITY...IN THE HWO FOR FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LIE WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RIGHT OFF THE BAT...THEN TEMPERATURES.
THE START OF THE PERIOD HAS MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH THE LATEST UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAKING ITS WAY EAST INTO THE REGION. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS SET UP JUST WEST OF THE CWA AT SUNRISE
THURSDAY...WITH THE INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL LIFT OUT AHEAD OF
THE AXIS BRINGING CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MAINLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AT THE SURFACE...TIMING/LOCATION OF THE
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT MATCHES UP FAIRLY WELL BETWEEN
MODELS...SHOWING IT EITHER RIGHT OVER THE SERN CORNER OF THE
CWA...OR JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA BOUNDARY. THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS...THE MAIN STORY LIES WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN
END...AND COOLER AIR BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DID INCREASE POPS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
THINGS HANGING A BIT LONGER...BUT TRENDED THINGS DOWN FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN PLACE WITH HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY MAY LINGER...SO HAVE SOME SCATTERED THUNDER MENTION IN
THE EAST...WITH JUST SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE
DIMINISHING SKY COVER WITH TIME...BUT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS LOOK
TO HANG ON FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WERE MADE TO HIGH TEMPS FOR THURSDAY...WHICH REMAIN IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...AS THE LATEST DISTURBANCE KEEPS
SHIFTING EAST AND RIDGING IS BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST. KEPT
THE DRY FORECAST GOING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER.
MODELS SHOWING THE AREA BEING IN THE EXIT REGION OF A HEFTY 120+KT
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NOSING IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA...THINKING
THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS
DRY...BUT THE LATEST ECMWF TRIES BRINGING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE SOUTH INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH ITS RESULTANT QPF.
WANT TO SEE IF THAT FEATURE REMAINS IN UPCOMING RUNS BEFORE
JUMPING ON BOARD. THE GFS KEEPS THAT DISTURBANCE WELL TO THE
NORTH...AND ANY PRECIP WOULD BE JET STREAK DRIVEN.
AS WE GET INTO FRIDAY...THAT NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
MAIN FLOW WILL BRING A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION...AND LOOKS TO RESULT IN FRIDAY BEING THE COOLEST DAY OF
THE 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
SURGE OF COOLER AIR. EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY NW WINDS...THOUGH THEY SHOULD START DIMINISHING
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SFC HIGH BECOMING MORE OF A
PLAYER. DID LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...WITH THE FORECAST NOW
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHEAST TO MID 60S IN THE SW.
BIGGEST CHANGE MADE TO FRIDAY WAS TO KNOCK DOWN DEWPOINTS. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING NOTABLY DRIER AIR WORKING IN...AND
FORECAST DEWPOINTS IN SOME LOCATIONS WERE DECREASED BY AROUND 10
DEGREES.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK...ANY NOTABLE CHANGES OCCURRED WITH TEMPERATURES...AS THE DRY
FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINING A WELL AMPLIFIED WITH
NWRLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND ANY DISTURBANCES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE N/NE OF THE CWA. THE COOLEST PART OF THE
AIR MASS WHICH BUILDS IN AT THE END OF THE WEEK STARTS TO SHIFT
OFF TO THE EAST...BUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE CWA TO KEEP HIGHS FOR SAT IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S...WITH ANOTHER BUMP UP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
FOR SUN. A PRETTY NICE WEEKEND...NOT A WHOLE LOT IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS EXPECTED...AND WHILE SUNDAY MAY BE A TOUCH BREEZIER...SAT
WIND LOOK TO TOP OUT ARND 10 MPH. NO NOTABLE CHANGES EXPECTED AS
WE GET INTO MON/TUE...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOWER/MID
70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
REST OF TONIGHT: VLIFR STRATUS SHOULD REMAINED LOCKED IN AROUND
200 FT. VSBYS WILL BE VARIABLE BETWEEN MVFR AND VLIFR IN FOG.
BELIEVE VSBYS WILL DECAY TO 1/2SM BY 10Z AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO
1/4SM. LIGHT SE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS...BUT A WINDSHIFT COULD MOVE IN
SHIFTING WINDS TO SW OR W.
CONFIDENCE: LOW
WED: VLIFR FOG/STRATUS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE BEGINNING 15Z WITH
CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING VFR 17Z-18Z. LIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDSHIFT BOUNDARIES MAKE WIND DIRECTION
UNCERTAIN...BUT SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: LOW...ESPECIALLY WITH TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
WED EVE: VFR WITH MID-HIGH CIGS INVADING FROM THE W AT AND ABOVE
15K FT. A COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY PASS THRU BY 00Z SHIFTING
WINDS TO N LESS THAN 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1205 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
JUST PUBLISHED A SIGNIFICANT ENHANCED SHORT-TERM FCST /ESTF/
UPDATE.
WE MAY NEED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE FCST AREA BEFORE
DAWN.
THIS AFTERNOON THERE WAS A SUBSTANTIAL DWPT BOUNDARY BISECTING THE
FCST AREA FROM BVN-GRI-PHG-HLC. STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ON THE MOIST
SIDE. WINDS ARE CONSIDERABLY MORE SE THAN EXPECTED 24 HRS AGO AND
THIS HAS TRANSPORTED THESE HIGHER DWPTS NW. THE DWPT AT EAR
DROPPED TO 43F...BUT NOW WAS IN THE LOW 60S. SO FOG HAS DEVELOPED.
AND WHILE ODX/LXN ARE STILL 10SM CLR...THE TREND IS ESTABLISHED
AND THE GOES FOG PRODUCT HAS IT. STRATUS/FOG WILL BE INVADING
SHORTLY.
SO CLOUDS/FOG HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED THRU 18Z. AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
IMPROVEMENT IN FOG/STRATUS UNTIL 15Z. BASED ON INCREASING CLOUDS
...HAVE ADJUSTED TEMP/DWPTS UPWARD W OF HWY 183 WHERE THEY SHOULD
THEN HOLD STEADY THE REST OF THE NIGHT UNDER THE STRATUS.
THE HRRR IS INDICATING A WINDSHIFT TO THE W TO MOVE INTO THE WRN
HALF OF THE FCST AREA BEFORE SUNRISE. THIS COMPLICATES THE FCST
AND LOWERS CONFIDENCE AS IT COULD ADVECT LOWER DWPTS BACK IN...
REDUCING THE STRATUS/FOG. ANOTHER COMPLICATINO IS THE THICK MID-
HIGH CLOUDS OVER WRN NEB/KS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROF. THE AFFECT THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE ON THE STRATUS
REMAINS UNCLEAR.
TSTMS CONT TO FORM BETWEEN HSI AND HJH. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. 88D ESTIMATES 3-4"
OF RAIN FELL OVER ERN THAYER COUNTY. THE AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGE AT
ALEXANDRIA MEASURED 3.31" SINCE 8 PM. SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
HYDRO ISSUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF A ~40KT JET
STREAK JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...WITH THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS JET STREAK CLIPPING OUR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THERMAL ADVECTION ALONG THIS AXIS APPEARS AS
THOUGH IT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST...A SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC. THAT SAID...SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
FROM SEVERAL MODELS REMAIN VERY PESSIMISTIC WITH RESPECT TO
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT AND WITH THE
PRIMARY JET STREAK AXIS REMAINING TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT CERTAINLY
SEEMS TO BE A FAIR ARGUMENT. THAT SAID...OF ANY TIME PERIOD
BETWEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND 12Z WEDNESDAY...THE 03-09Z TIME
PERIOD SEEMS TO HOLD THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION ACROSS OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD
AND RELEGATED THE HIGHEST POPS...~50%...TO OUR SOUTHEAST 03-09Z
TONIGHT.
THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...POST-SUNRISE...WILL LIKELY
PRESENT A DRY PERIOD TO THE AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC JET AXIS WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST 12-18Z AS A RESULT. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOWEVER...INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
THERMAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
WEST...WORKING IN CONCERT WITH THE THERMALLY-INDIRECT CIRCULATION
WITHIN THE LEFT- FRONT QUADRANT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK...COULD BE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION MOST ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT
AHEAD WITH 20-40% POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH POPS INCREASING TO AROUND 70% AFTER 06Z
THURSDAY FOR MANY LOCATIONS AS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS
DRAWS CLOSER TO THE AREA THUS RESULTING IN INCREASING OMEGA.
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE CLOSED LOW/SHORT WAVE REMAINING
WELL NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA. THAT SAID...AFTERNOON SURFACE DEW
POINT READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE HELPING PROMOTE
POTENTIAL ENERGY VALUES OF 1000-1500J/KG ACROSS OUR EAST
SOUTHEAST. DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40KTS ARE
ALSO IN EXISTENCE. GIVEN ALL THIS...IT CERTAINLY SEEMS
POSSIBLE...SHOULD CONVECTION BE REALIZED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THAT A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS COULD BE
REALIZED AND WILL CONTINUE SUCH MENTION IN THE HWO. LOOKING AHEAD
TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS
SHOULD NOT CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND AS A RESULT...WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING POTENTIAL ENERGY VALUES TO BE CLOSER TO
2000J/KG. IN ADDITION...INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY
SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN INCREASING DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR...WITH
VALUES CLOSER TO 45 OR 50KTS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA
ON WEDNESDAY. FINALLY...A BACKED BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD TO THE
SOUTH OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY ALSO PROMOTE LOCALLY ENHANCED
BOUNDARY-LAYER SRH VALUES THUS PROMOTING THE POSSIBILITY OF
TORNADIC ACTIVITY. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING TORNADIC ACTIVITY...IN THE HWO FOR FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LIE WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RIGHT OFF THE BAT...THEN TEMPERATURES.
THE START OF THE PERIOD HAS MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH THE LATEST UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAKING ITS WAY EAST INTO THE REGION. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS SET UP JUST WEST OF THE CWA AT SUNRISE
THURSDAY...WITH THE INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL LIFT OUT AHEAD OF
THE AXIS BRINGING CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MAINLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AT THE SURFACE...TIMING/LOCATION OF THE
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT MATCHES UP FAIRLY WELL BETWEEN
MODELS...SHOWING IT EITHER RIGHT OVER THE SERN CORNER OF THE
CWA...OR JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA BOUNDARY. THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS...THE MAIN STORY LIES WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN
END...AND COOLER AIR BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DID INCREASE POPS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
THINGS HANGING A BIT LONGER...BUT TRENDED THINGS DOWN FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN PLACE WITH HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY MAY LINGER...SO HAVE SOME SCATTERED THUNDER MENTION IN
THE EAST...WITH JUST SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE
DIMINISHING SKY COVER WITH TIME...BUT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS LOOK
TO HANG ON FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WERE MADE TO HIGH TEMPS FOR THURSDAY...WHICH REMAIN IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...AS THE LATEST DISTURBANCE KEEPS
SHIFTING EAST AND RIDGING IS BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST. KEPT
THE DRY FORECAST GOING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER.
MODELS SHOWING THE AREA BEING IN THE EXIT REGION OF A HEFTY 120+KT
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NOSING IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA...THINKING
THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS
DRY...BUT THE LATEST ECMWF TRIES BRINGING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE SOUTH INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH ITS RESULTANT QPF.
WANT TO SEE IF THAT FEATURE REMAINS IN UPCOMING RUNS BEFORE
JUMPING ON BOARD. THE GFS KEEPS THAT DISTURBANCE WELL TO THE
NORTH...AND ANY PRECIP WOULD BE JET STREAK DRIVEN.
AS WE GET INTO FRIDAY...THAT NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
MAIN FLOW WILL BRING A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION...AND LOOKS TO RESULT IN FRIDAY BEING THE COOLEST DAY OF
THE 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
SURGE OF COOLER AIR. EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY NW WINDS...THOUGH THEY SHOULD START DIMINISHING
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SFC HIGH BECOMING MORE OF A
PLAYER. DID LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...WITH THE FORECAST NOW
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHEAST TO MID 60S IN THE SW.
BIGGEST CHANGE MADE TO FRIDAY WAS TO KNOCK DOWN DEWPOINTS. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING NOTABLY DRIER AIR WORKING IN...AND
FORECAST DEWPOINTS IN SOME LOCATIONS WERE DECREASED BY AROUND 10
DEGREES.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK...ANY NOTABLE CHANGES OCCURRED WITH TEMPERATURES...AS THE DRY
FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINING A WELL AMPLIFIED WITH
NWRLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND ANY DISTURBANCES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE N/NE OF THE CWA. THE COOLEST PART OF THE
AIR MASS WHICH BUILDS IN AT THE END OF THE WEEK STARTS TO SHIFT
OFF TO THE EAST...BUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE CWA TO KEEP HIGHS FOR SAT IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S...WITH ANOTHER BUMP UP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
FOR SUN. A PRETTY NICE WEEKEND...NOT A WHOLE LOT IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS EXPECTED...AND WHILE SUNDAY MAY BE A TOUCH BREEZIER...SAT
WIND LOOK TO TOP OUT ARND 10 MPH. NO NOTABLE CHANGES EXPECTED AS
WE GET INTO MON/TUE...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOWER/MID
70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINAL...WITH GENERALLY ONLY PASSING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME. AS WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CLEARING WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOP.
WHILE SOME GUIDANCE IS BRINGING DENSE FOG...OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE
THIS FOR THE TIME BEING AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW...RATHER INSERTED
MVFR VSBYS IN BR FOR THE TIME BEING. OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
WEDNESDAY...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS EXPECT AHEAD OF
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE...EXPECTED JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT VALID
PERIOD OF THE TAF.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
255 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATE FRIDAY... AND SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM WEDNESDAY...
FOR TODAY: AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT... THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING... FOSTERED BY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. THUS FAR THE LOWEST VSBYS HAVE BEEN OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW
THIS FOG/STRATUS SPREADING OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS... AND NOT IMPROVING UNTIL THE 14Z-16Z TIME
FRAME... REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE SLOW DISPERSION SEEN YESTERDAY.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH MID MORNING. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE POCKETS OF VERY
LIGHT MIST WITHIN THE MORE DENSE FOG. THE DISSOLUTION OF THE
FOG/STRATUS WILL POST THE NEXT CHALLENGE... GIVEN YESTERDAY`S SLOW
IMPROVEMENT... AND WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE AS WELL AS THE HRRR
TRENDS AND SHOW SLOWLY INCREASING SUNSHINE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH THE SUN BREAKING THROUGH LAST OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER. EXPECT A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS... NOTED ON IR AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY... NOW EXTEND OVER TN INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AND ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE UNDERCUTTING THE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL... THIS EQUATES TO A TREND FROM
DAYBREAK FOG/STRATUS TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THICKNESSES
ARE 5-10 M HIGHER THAN NORMAL... SO EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 OVER PIEDMONT (WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THE LONGEST) TO
THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.
FOR TONIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS... LIKELY LESS WIDESPREAD AND
LESS DENSE THAN THIS MORNING OR YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE FEW
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD... NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
SHOT OF MOISTURE IN THE 925-700 MB LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE MASS
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL RETREATING WARM FRONT. THE
NAM IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH SUCH CLOUDS THAN THE GFS... SO SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT AND COVERAGE REMAINS. BUT IF THESE
CLOUDS COME TO PASS... THEY WOULD MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
WILL REFRAIN FROM INCLUDING FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW... AS IT
COULD SIMPLY BE LIGHT FOG. WILL SHOW A TREND TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NE. MILD LOWS OF 58-62. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...
FOR THU/THU NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL CLIPPER LOW CONTINUES MOVING OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST THU/THU NIGHT... WHILE DEEP AND AMPLIFYING MID
LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTS EAST OVER THE PLAINS.... AND THIS WILL BRING
A MODEST MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER NC. THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEAKLY TO THE SW/SOUTH
INTO NC... ALTHOUGH ITS SOUTHERN END WILL START TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
A BIT TO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO THE ENCROACHING WARM SECTOR AND
SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SW. EXPECT FAIR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRENGTHENS (ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NC). THE MODELS DEVELOP PATCHES OF VERY
LIGHT PRECIP OVER CENTRAL/ERN NC EARLY THU THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...
WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE VA PIEDMONT THU NIGHT.
WITH THE MID LEVELS STILL DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE
ALOFT... ANY MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WOULD BE ROOTED VERY
LOW. AND AT THIS TIME... WE DON`T QUITE SEE THE LIFT AND MOISTURE
NECESSARY FOR ANYTHING BETTER THAN SPRINKLES. THUS... WILL LEAVE
POPS UNDER 15% AND MENTION NOTHING GREATER THAN SPRINKLES.
THICKNESSES INCH UP FURTHER... SUGGESTING HIGHS NEAR 80 TO 84
(COOLER READINGS NORTHEAST). LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S... AND WE
SHOULD SEE AREAS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG THU NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING STORM SYSTEM. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER
MID-WEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEY. A POTENT COLD FRONT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS NORTHWARD TREK INTO CANADA.
THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND THE PRECEDING CONVECTION. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE MODELS SINCE THE LAST FORECAST UPDATE...THUS HAVE KEPT RAINFALL
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS NEARLY THE SAME. EXPECT CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM
NW TO EAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...DECREASING
AGAIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS DESCENT SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINED
WITH THE LATE DIURNAL TIMING...SHOULD MINIMIZE THE SEVERE THREAT.
EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID 50S NW TO MID 60S SE...ALTHOUGH BOTH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE CONVECTION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ONCE THE PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES YIELDING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST SHOULD ALSO BE MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT
MORE UNCERTAINTY AND DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL AGAIN BE DEPENDENT ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT MID 60S NW
TO MID 70S SE WHILE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...MID 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE THE LOWEST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MEANWHILE...LOWS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM WEDNESDAY...
CHANCES ARE GOOD FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT RDU/RWI/FAY UNTIL MID
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAS
PROMPTED FORMATION OF AREAS OF FOG... DENSE IN SPOTS. THIS FOG IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN NC OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS... HOLDING THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z BEFORE SLOWLY DISPERSING.
THERE IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY AT INT/GSO... WHERE FOG IS CURRENTLY
LIGHT/PATCHY... AND HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT PLACES THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE FOG/STRATUS JUST EAST OF THE TRIAD AREA. WILL HAVE SCTD LOW
STRATUS AND LIGHTER FOG AT INT/GSO... WHILE AT RDU/RWI/FAY... WILL
INDICATE LIFR CIGS/VSBYS UNTIL 14Z/15Z. AFTER THIS TIME... EXPECT A
TREND TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY... AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE REGION. RENEWED
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD
(06Z THU). SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY THU MORNING... MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND AFFECT CENTRAL NC TERMINALS FROM 08Z-13Z THU
MORNING. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THU. A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT RWI/FAY THU AFTERNOON/EVENING... BUT
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP
EARLY FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT AFTERNOON... LASTING
THROUGH SUNDAY. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
250 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATE FRIDAY... AND SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM WEDNESDAY...
FOR TODAY: AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT... THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING... FOSTERED BY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. THUS FAR THE LOWEST VSBYS HAVE BEEN OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW
THIS FOG/STRATUS SPREADING OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS... AND NOT IMPROVING UNTIL THE 14Z-16Z TIME
FRAME... REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE SLOW DISPERSION SEEN YESTERDAY.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH MID MORNING. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE POCKETS OF VERY
LIGHT MIST WITHIN THE MORE DENSE FOG. THE DISSOLUTION OF THE
FOG/STRATUS WILL POST THE NEXT CHALLENGE... GIVEN YESTERDAY`S SLOW
IMPROVEMENT... AND WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE AS WELL AS THE HRRR
TRENDS AND SHOW SLOWLY INCREASING SUNSHINE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH THE SUN BREAKING THROUGH LAST OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER. EXPECT A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS... NOTED ON IR AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY... NOW EXTEND OVER TN INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AND ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE UNDERCUTTING THE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL... THIS EQUATES TO A TREND FROM
DAYBREAK FOG/STRATUS TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THICKNESSES
ARE 5-10 M HIGHER THAN NORMAL... SO EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 OVER PIEDMONT (WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THE LONGEST) TO
THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.
FOR TONIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS... LIKELY LESS WIDESPREAD AND
LESS DENSE THAN THIS MORNING OR YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE FEW
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD... NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
SHOT OF MOISTURE IN THE 925-700 MB LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE MASS
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL RETREATING WARM FRONT. THE
NAM IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH SUCH CLOUDS THAN THE GFS... SO SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT AND COVERAGE REMAINS. BUT IF THESE
CLOUDS COME TO PASS... THEY WOULD MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
WILL REFRAIN FROM INCLUDING FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW... AS IT
COULD SIMPLY BE LIGHT FOG. WILL SHOW A TREND TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NE. MILD LOWS OF 58-62. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...
FOR THU/THU NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL CLIPPER LOW CONTINUES MOVING OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST THU/THU NIGHT... WHILE DEEP AND AMPLIFYING MID
LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTS EAST OVER THE PLAINS.... AND THIS WILL BRING
A MODEST MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER NC. THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEAKLY TO THE SW/SOUTH
INTO NC... ALTHOUGH ITS SOUTHERN END WILL START TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
A BIT TO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO THE ENCROACHING WARM SECTOR AND
SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SW. EXPECT FAIR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRENGTHENS (ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NC). THE MODELS DEVELOP PATCHES OF VERY
LIGHT PRECIP OVER CENTRAL/ERN NC EARLY THU THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...
WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE VA PIEDMONT THU NIGHT.
WITH THE MID LEVELS STILL DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE
ALOFT... ANY MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WOULD BE ROOTED VERY
LOW. AND AT THIS TIME... WE DON`T QUITE SEE THE LIFT AND MOISTURE
NECESSARY FOR ANYTHING BETTER THAN SPRINKLES. THUS... WILL LEAVE
POPS UNDER 15% AND MENTION NOTHING GREATER THAN SPRINKLES.
THICKNESSES INCH UP FURTHER... SUGGESTING HIGHS NEAR 80 TO 84
(COOLER READINGS NORTHEAST). LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S... AND WE
SHOULD SEE AREAS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG THU NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING STORM SYSTEM. -GIH
FROM 235 PM TUESDAY... FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: MODELS INDICATE
PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS ACROSS THE UPPER
MS VALLEY/UPR MIDWEST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT PASSAGE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING...EXITING EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING REALLY SHEARS OUT/DAMPENS
AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...RESULTING IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH EASTWARD
ADVANCING 30-35KT SWLY LLJ FOCUSING STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN A BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT.
LATE DIURNAL TIMING AND MODEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
LIMITED/WEAK INSTABILITY(200-400 MUCAPE)...THWARTING ANY SEVERE
THREAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT...DECREASING WEST TO EAST DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS
FRONT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM
WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF A 0.25-
0.50". MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON ARRIVAL/ONSET OF
SHOWERS/CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. UNDER THICKENING CLOUD
COVER...A BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY RANGING FROM MID 70S WEST TO
LOWER 80S EAST. MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON WEST-EAST TIMING OF FROPA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE AREA...RANGING FROM LOWER/MID 50S NORTHWEST
TO LOWER/MID 60S SE. -CBL
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SHIFTING EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IN WHICH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL HELP SUPPORT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.
TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STILL IN QUESTION AS NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. UNTIL MODEL DISCREPANCIES CAN BE IRONED OUT WITH THIS CLIPPER-
LIKE TROUGH...WILL INDICATE CONSERVATIVE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM WEDNESDAY...
CHANCES ARE GOOD FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT RDU/RWI/FAY UNTIL MID
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAS
PROMPTED FORMATION OF AREAS OF FOG... DENSE IN SPOTS. THIS FOG IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN NC OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS... HOLDING THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z BEFORE SLOWLY DISPERSING.
THERE IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY AT INT/GSO... WHERE FOG IS CURRENTLY
LIGHT/PATCHY... AND HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT PLACES THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE FOG/STRATUS JUST EAST OF THE TRIAD AREA. WILL HAVE SCTD LOW
STRATUS AND LIGHTER FOG AT INT/GSO... WHILE AT RDU/RWI/FAY... WILL
INDICATE LIFR CIGS/VSBYS UNTIL 14Z/15Z. AFTER THIS TIME... EXPECT A
TREND TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY... AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE REGION. RENEWED
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD
(06Z THU). SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY THU MORNING... MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND AFFECT CENTRAL NC TERMINALS FROM 08Z-13Z THU
MORNING. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THU. A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT RWI/FAY THU AFTERNOON/EVENING... BUT
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP
EARLY FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT AFTERNOON... LASTING
THROUGH SUNDAY. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
235 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATE FRIDAY... AND SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM WEDNESDAY...
FOR TODAY: AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT... THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING... FOSTERED BY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. THUS FAR THE LOWEST VSBYS HAVE BEEN OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW
THIS FOG/STRATUS SPREADING OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS... AND NOT IMPROVING UNTIL THE 14Z-16Z TIME
FRAME... REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE SLOW DISPERSION SEEN YESTERDAY.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH MID MORNING. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE POCKETS OF VERY
LIGHT MIST WITHIN THE MORE DENSE FOG. THE DISSOLUTION OF THE
FOG/STRATUS WILL POST THE NEXT CHALLENGE... GIVEN YESTERDAY`S SLOW
IMPROVEMENT... AND WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE AS WELL AS THE HRRR
TRENDS AND SHOW SLOWLY INCREASING SUNSHINE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH THE SUN BREAKING THROUGH LAST OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER. EXPECT A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS... NOTED ON IR AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY... NOW EXTEND OVER TN INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AND ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE UNDERCUTTING THE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL... THIS EQUATES TO A TREND FROM
DAYBREAK FOG/STRATUS TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THICKNESSES
ARE 5-10 M HIGHER THAN NORMAL... SO EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 OVER PIEDMONT (WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THE LONGEST) TO
THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.
FOR TONIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS... LIKELY LESS WIDESPREAD AND
LESS DENSE THAN THIS MORNING OR YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE FEW
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD... NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
SHOT OF MOISTURE IN THE 925-700 MB LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE MASS
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL RETREATING WARM FRONT. THE
NAM IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH SUCH CLOUDS THAN THE GFS... SO SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT AND COVERAGE REMAINS. BUT IF THESE
CLOUDS COME TO PASS... THEY WOULD MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
WILL REFRAIN FROM INCLUDING FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW... AS IT
COULD SIMPLY BE LIGHT FOG. WILL SHOW A TREND TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NE. MILD LOWS OF 58-62. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE OVER THE
AREA...DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD
OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. IF CURRENT TIMING
HOLDS UP...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS REMAIN STRONGLY CAPPED ALOFT...WITH STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST-
EAST. HIGHS 80 TO 85. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: MODELS INDICATE PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPR MIDWEST AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN REALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
PASSAGE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING...EXITING
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE
LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY FRIDAY
MORNING REALLY SHEARS OUT/DAMPENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO MID-
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...RESULTING IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WITH EASTWARD ADVANCING 30-35KT SWLY LLJ FOCUSING STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN A BAND OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. LATE DIURNAL TIMING AND MODEST LAPSE
RATES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LIMITED/WEAK INSTABILITY(200-400
MUCAPE)...THWARTING ANY SEVERE THREAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...DECREASING WEST TO EAST
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS FRONT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST.
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF A 0.25-0.50".
MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON ARRIVAL/ONSET OF
SHOWERS/CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. UNDER THICKENING CLOUD
COVER...A BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY RANGING FROM MID 70S WEST TO
LOWER 80S EAST. MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON WEST-EAST TIMING OF FROPA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE AREA...RANGING FROM LOWER/MID 50S NORTHWEST
TO LOWER/MID 60S SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SHIFTING EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IN WHICH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL HELP SUPPORT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.
TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STILL IN QUESTION AS NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. UNTIL MODEL DISCREPANCIES CAN BE IRONED OUT WITH THIS CLIPPER-
LIKE TROUGH...WILL INDICATE CONSERVATIVE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM WEDNESDAY...
CHANCES ARE GOOD FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT RDU/RWI/FAY UNTIL MID
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAS
PROMPTED FORMATION OF AREAS OF FOG... DENSE IN SPOTS. THIS FOG IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN NC OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS... HOLDING THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z BEFORE SLOWLY DISPERSING.
THERE IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY AT INT/GSO... WHERE FOG IS CURRENTLY
LIGHT/PATCHY... AND HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT PLACES THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE FOG/STRATUS JUST EAST OF THE TRIAD AREA. WILL HAVE SCTD LOW
STRATUS AND LIGHTER FOG AT INT/GSO... WHILE AT RDU/RWI/FAY... WILL
INDICATE LIFR CIGS/VSBYS UNTIL 14Z/15Z. AFTER THIS TIME... EXPECT A
TREND TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY... AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE REGION. RENEWED
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD
(06Z THU). SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY THU MORNING... MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND AFFECT CENTRAL NC TERMINALS FROM 08Z-13Z THU
MORNING. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THU. A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT RWI/FAY THU AFTERNOON/EVENING... BUT
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP
EARLY FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT AFTERNOON... LASTING
THROUGH SUNDAY. -GIH
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
103 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
SURFACE LOW WAS NEAR HARVEY...WITH SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW IN
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND WESTERLY WINDS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL...EAST WINDS WERE
TURNING NORTHERLY AROUND THE LOW. AREA OF SHOWERS WAS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...LIFTING NORTHWARD. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS
WAS OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
HAVE KEPT THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL...THEN RAIN CHANCES DECREASING WITH TIME AS THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA BY/BEFORE DAYBREAK.
THE HRRR MODEL INDICATED THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE WAS FAVORED
FOR SOME FOG THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE VICINITY OF THE LOW IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL...HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG.
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE MAIN FEATURES. HOURLY TEMPS AND
WINDS WERE ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
SURFACE LOW HAS SHIFTED INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHILE
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS
WAY NORTH. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FOR EVENING UPDATE AS
ONLY LIGHTNING WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER EASTERN MONTANA.
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AS
SUGGESTED BY HIGH-RES MODELS SO HAVE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AREA AS LOW LIFTS ITS WAY INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT STRETCHES FROM NORTH/EAST OF BISMARCK DOWN
TOWARDS ELLENDALE IN AREA THAT HAD SOME CLEARING EARLIER AND IS
NOW BEING FED BY WARMER/MOIST AIR PULLING IN FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD
OF THE LOW. INITIAL STORM PRODUCED A TORNADO JUST OVER THE BORDER
IN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE STRONGER SHEAR IS NOTED. MODEST SEVERE
THREAT CONTINUES...THOUGH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING AS STORMS CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED IN CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA BETWEEN FAITH...PHILIP AND PIERRE. INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS
EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THEN
DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. LATEST 19Z/18Z RAP/HRRR
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR DOES SHOW INCREASING
REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER FROM AROUND HETTINGER TO
SELFRIDGE AND LIFTING NORTH NORTHWEST. THUS THINK THE MESOSCALE
MODELS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT.
WHETHER OR NOT WE GET THE CONVECTION IS STILL QUESTIONABLE. CLOUD
COVER HAS LIMITED INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON THUS MINIMIZING THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...FORCING WITH THE STACKED SYSTEM
MAY YET BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDER. IF THAT DOES
OCCUR THE STRONG LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND BULK SHEAR WOULD BE ENOUGH
THAT A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST OR POSSIBLE WEAK TORNADO COULD
OCCUR. THE BEST GUESS FOR PLACEMENT WOULD BE MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE FROM JUST WEST OF THE BISMARCK MANDAN
AREA...EAST TO NEAR JAMESTOWN AND ELLENDALE...AND PERHAPS AS FAR
NORTH AS THE HARVEY AND CARRINGTON AREAS. TIMING IS EXPECTED TO BE
FROM BEGINNING AROUND 21 UTC IN THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...AND ENDING
AROUND 02 UTC WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA...WITH PERHAPS SOME
LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE WEST COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AND THE COLD AIR PUSHING IN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THE 12 UTC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A THE LARGE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES PROGRESSING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY
00 UTC FRIDAY. A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT. AFTER 00
UTC FRIDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DEVIATE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE 12 UTC
GFS IS BY FAR THE FASTEST WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH...PUSHING ALL PRECIPITATION EAST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY FRIDAY 00 UTC. THE 12 UTC ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND DEEPEST
OF THE SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF SOLUTION EVEN PLACES A 500 MB CLOSED LOW
OVER NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AT 06 UTC AND HAS WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION
LINGERING THROUGH 18 UTC FRIDAY. FOR THE FORECAST HAVE WENT WITH THE
LATEST 12 UTC GEM NHEM WHICH SEEMS TO BE A 50/50 SPLIT OF THE LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION THAT COMES TRUE CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR
WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE THURSDAY FRIDAY SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY
MORNING. WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW. THE
TRICKY PART WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION COMES
THROUGH ALONG WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.
SATURDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THERE COLDEST ACROSS THE
STATE...LOWER 30S TO UPPER 20S. IF ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS BEHIND THE
SYSTEM A FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL...ESPECIALLY NORTH
CENTRAL...PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VIS WILL REMAIN THIS MORNING AS CLOUD
SHIELD ROTATES AROUND THE SURFACE LOW - WHICH WAS NEAR HARVEY AT
05Z. EXPECT THE LOW TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO MANITOBA BY
DAYBREAK. SOUTH WINDS AT KJMS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AFT 08Z/10Z. WEST
WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z-18Z
AND CIGS TO BECOME VFR BY 18Z. WINDS DECREASING BY 00Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1142 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
SFC/500 MB LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF MINOT MOVING NORTH. SHOWERS
MOSTLY CONCENTRATED JUST WEST OF DVL REGION ON EDGE OF FCST AREA
WITH ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN REPORTED OVER FCST AREA (MAINLY
SPRINKLES). DRY SLOT (AT LEAST IN TERMS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE)
MOVING INTO SE ND AND THIS WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL RRV OVERNIGHT
PER CEILING PROGS FROM LATEST HRRR MODEL. THREAT FOR SHOWERS
DIMINISHING FURTHER OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY SOUTH WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
TWEEKING POPS THIS EVENING. MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS THAT MOVED INTO
THE RRV LATE THIS AFTN HAS SINCE WEAKENED AND MOSTLY FALLEN APART
AS IT RAIN INTO DRY AIR OVER NW MN. UPPER LOW WEST OF BISMARCK
WITH SFC LOW IN SIMILAR LOCATION MOVING NORTH AS EXPECTED. BRIEF
CLEARING IN DRY SLOT IN THE ABERDEEN-HURON SD AREA MID AFTN LEAD
TO A NARROW BAND OF T-STORMS SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK TO WEST OF
ABERDEEN AND THESE ARE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER LOW
BUT WITH MUCH MORE STABLE AIR IN SE ND THEY ARE WEAKENING. HRRR
SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON HOURLY PRECIP AND HAS THE REMAINING
SHOWER BAND DRYING UP AS IT MOVES INTO SE ND TOWARD FARGO BY 03Z.
THIS WOULD LEAVE MUCH OF THE RRV/NW AND WCNTRL MN DRY OVERNIGHT.
DID TWEEK POPS TO INDICATE THAT IDEA BUT DID LEAVE IN SOME LOW
POPS PERHAPS A BIT LONGER THAN OTHERWISE WOULD DUE TO
UNCERTAINITIES. BETTER BET FOR SHOWERS IN DVL BASIN SO KEPT HIGHER
POPS THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD FOCUSES ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE 995 MB LOW IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN WESTERN SD AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ND AND INTO SWRN MANITOBA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY ARCS FROM BOTTINEAU TO FARGO AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...REACHING PEMBINA BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THIS BAND...PRIMARILY NEAR THE SD BORDER...LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. A STORM OR TWO COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS IN THE
FAR SOUTH. ITS LOOKING LIKE MOST OF THE FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE IN CENTRAL ND TONIGHT...SO HAVE TRIMMED POPS DOWNWARD
SOMEWHAT.
TOMORROW...CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR
NORTH AND EAST. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POTENT WAVE ENTERS AREA
BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED THUNDER TO THE CWFA BY
THURSDAY PM. GFS DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH ITS 12Z SOLN OF THIS
SYSTEM AND USED A BLEND OF THE GEM/EC/NAM WITH ITS 500MB
PLACEMENT...TIMING AND TRACK...ALL OF WHICH BRING THE UPPER LOW TO
THE SD/ND/MN BORDER AREA BY 12Z FRI. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM 850MB
TEMPS REACH INTO THE 5 TO 9C RANGE WITH AND FAVORABLE WARMING SW
SFC WINDS ALLOWING SFC TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS AND STRONG 925MB CAA. STRONG WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE NAM SHOWING 40KTS OR
BETTER TO MIX DURING THE DAYTIME. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO MINUS 4C OR
SO WITH 925MB TEMPS NEAR 0C SO WILL LOWER FRIDAY MAX TEMPS INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S. SHOWERS SLOWLY DEPART WEST TO EAST FRIDAY.
SATURDAY TO TUESDAY... NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE PERIOD WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED NW TO SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH
WILL ALLOW ANY WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN CHC/SLGHT CHC POPS SAT AND SUN WITH BLENDED
GUIDANCE GIVING LOW 50S FOR MAX TEMPS. THICKNESSES INCREASE AS THE
NW FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE WEST NW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME AS A RESULT AND SLGHT CHC POPS ARE
LIMITED TO THE EASTERN CWFA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF FAR ERN AREAS SUCH AS BAUDETTE-BEMIDJI-WADENA WHERE VFR CIGS
REMAIN. ISSUES THIS FCST IS AFFECT OF DRY SLOT IN CLEARING OUT THE
MVFR CIGS INTO FARGO AREA OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TVF/GFK AS
WELL. THEN MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO SPREAD BACK IN AS UPPER LOW/SFC LOW
MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG
OVERNIGHT IN THE 15 TO 30 KT RANGE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND THEN EVENTUALLY CLOSER TO WEST WED AFTN.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
205 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY.
MUCH COOLER WEEKEND. REINFORCING FRONT MAY ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
NAM KEEPS TRYING TO GIVE SOME CONVECTION OFF THE ELEVATED CAPE
ALONG THE STALLING COLD FRONT FROM AN EKN-CRW-HTS LINE THROUGH
AROUND THE 06Z-09Z TIME FRAME. GAVE IN AND CONTINUED THE LOW END
POPS THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME WITH THE HRRR ALSO SELLING A SIMILAR
SOLUTION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC OBS SHOWING WEAK COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH-LIKE FEATURE GENERALLY
BISECTING THE STATE OF OHIO FROM NE TO SW...JUST EAST OF CLE-CMH-CVG
AT 18Z. AHEAD OF IT AND OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SE GREAT
LAKES IS A LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PA STRETCHING SSW-WARD
INTO MORGAN/PERRY COUNTIES IN OHIO. THESE WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY
EASTWARD MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF US HWY 50 THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL LIKELY SHOW SOME SIGNS OF DISSIPATION AS THEY PROGRESS.
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH
EASTWARD ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA BY 12Z WED. PRECIP CHANCES THIS EVENING
ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC...WITH NEAR-TERM CONVECTIVE MODELS INSISTING
ON SOME WEAK REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES INTO OUR
AREA THIS EVENING. SHOULD THIS OCCUR IT WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES...WHILE THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS REMAIN
DRY. AT ANY RATE...ANY PRECIP SHOULD END BY THE 03Z-06Z TIME FRAME
OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES...AND ANYTHING WHICH DOES DEVELOP THIS
EVENING WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE FRONT/TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT BEGIN TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT...LAYING
UP SOMEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL WV LOWLANDS. BEHIND IT...LOW STRATUS
WILL TAKE HOLD...WHILE EAST AND SOUTH OF IT SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY...ALLOWING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FOG
FORMATION.
WEDNESDAY...EARLY MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
WITH AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY LATE MORNING FOR MOST AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST.
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH SOME RIDGE TOP CONVERGENCE AND LLVL MOISTURE
POOLED IN THAT AREA.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARDING TEMPS. OVERNIGHT MINS
GENERALLY MID/UPPER 50S LOWLANDS AND MAX TEMPS MID/UPPER 70S STILL
APPEAR ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET START TO THE PERIOD AS RIDGING RULES SFC AND ALOFT WED NT INTO
THU NT.
MEANWHILE...L/W TROUGH RESIDING OVER THE WRN CONUS OF LATE...SLIDES
E TO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY THU...AND TO THE ERN CONUS FRI-FRI NT.
MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON BEHAVIOR OF INDIVIDUAL S/W TROUGHS
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER L/W AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. THE FIRST S/W IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT GETS
DRAWN NEWD ON FRONT SIDE OF L/W...CROSSING FRI. THIS WILL HAVE THE
BEST AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION EVENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. DEPICTED A MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED PATTERN IN THE POP GRIDS.
DYNAMICS WITH THIS FEATURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN BUOYANCY WHICH...WITH STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW...GIVE RISE TO
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...THE ONLY MITIGATING FACTOR BEING THE TIMING
WILL BE A BIT EARLY IN RELATIONSHIP TO DIURNAL HEATING. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO AT LEAST SEE A SEE TEXT AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.
WILL DEFER TO THE MID SHIFT WITH THE NEW SWODY3 FOR AN HWO
INTRODUCTION.
THE FRONT WHIPS THROUGH FRI NT...DRIVEN BY THE MAIN S/W TROUGH AXIS
WHICH DIGS IN AND CLOSES OFF INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOMEWHERE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THERE REMAINS MODEL DISCREPANCY AS TO HOW FAR S
THE LOW CLOSES OFF...BUT CLEARING...DRYING AND FALLING TEMPERATURES
FOLLOW EITHER WAY.
BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...A LITTLE LOWER
THAN PREVIOUS. PREVIOUS FCST LOOKED GOOD FOR HIGHS THU. BLENDED IN
A COMBINATION OF NAM AND GFS MODEL TEMPERATURES FOR FRI...HIGHS
ENDED UP CLOSE TO PREVIOUS AS A RESULT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
L/W TROUGH DOMINATES THE ERN CONUS THIS PERIOD WITH INITIAL SHOT OF
COLD AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE FRI. THE GFS TAKES MOST OF SAT TO GET THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS THROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF IS FASTER...BUT BRINGS
ANOTHER S/W TROUGH AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE L/W THROUGH ON SAT.
EITHER WAY...A FEW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE COLD ADVECTION UPSLOPE
FLOW BENEATH THE COLD AIR ALOFT.
THE AREA DOES REMAIN IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MUCH OF THE PERIOD AFTER
THAT AS THE SWD EXTENT OF THE L/W DOES RETREAT. THIS MAKES IT
DIFFICULT TO TIME THE COOLEST WEATHER OTHER THAN THE INITIAL SHOT
SAT...WHICH IS NOW CODED UP AS THE COOLEST PART OF THE FCST. THIS
INCLUDES POTENTIALLY FROSTY TEMPERATURES FOR THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS
AND IN SE OH COME SUN MORNING.
THE NEXT REINFORCING S/W TROUGH BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO ITS TIMING
ALONG WITH TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE REINFORCING COOL AIR BEHIND IT
SO COULD NOT REALLY DEPICT NEXT COOL DOWN EVEN ON DAY 7 NT.
BLENDED IN GFS...THE COLDER MODEL...FOR TEMPERATURES SAT AND HAVE
HIGHS SAT ON LOW EDGE OF GUIDANCE AND WELL BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 50S
LOWLANDS. BLENDED IN WPC AND THE LOW MEX FOR LOWS SAT NT...AGAIN ON
LOW END OF GUIDANCE. WILL NOT HWO FROST DAY 4 NT THOUGH PENDING HOW
FAVORABLE SAT NT TURNS OUT FOR RADIATIVE COOLING. BLENDED IN WPC
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LESS CERTAIN BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXPECTED STRATUS IS FORMING IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND SINKING SW ON
THE NE LOW LEVEL FLOW. YET...THAT FLOW BREAKS DOWN AFTER 09Z. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF 1 THSD FT BKN/OVC
FOR THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES...BUT CONFIDENCE LOWERS ON WHETHER IT
CAN PUSH INTO CKB TO CRW. VAD WINDS ON KRLX 05 TO 06Z WERE STILL NE
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT 925 MBS WHICH IS STRONGER THAN MOST MODELS. SO
WILL TRY TO FORM STRATUS AND NOT THICK FOG AT CKB TO CRW. WAS NOT
FORECASTING THE LOW STRATUS CEILING TO REACH EKN TO BKW
CORRIDOR.
STILL EXPECT THE THIN STRATUS TO BE STUBBORN TO ERODE/LIFT WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE MID OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES NEAR PKB. 18Z IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.
A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST
VIRGINIA CENTRAL MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.
HAVE MOSTLY SCATTERED CLOUDS BY 00Z THURSDAY. DIURNAL FOG MAY BE
FORMING FIRST...03Z TO 06Z THURSDAY...IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND
CRW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF STRATUS...AND THE 1000FT THRESHOLD
ARE IN QUESTION FOR THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME. TIMING THE LIFTING
AND BREAK UP OF THE THIN STRATUS MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 10/01/14
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M L L L L L L L L
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L H M M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H H M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L L L L L H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...50/26
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
403 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA. UPPER LEVEL FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS RESULTING IN
LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT...SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED. THE TAIL
END OF THIS ACTIVITY STRETCHES INTO OUR FAR NORTH TEXAS...AND THE NW
ZONES MAY RECEIVE A BRIEF SHOWER EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE STRATUS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS IS SURGING NORTHWARD INTO THE
THE CWA. THIS STRATUS SHOULD REACH THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING
BEFORE IT BEGINS TO MIX OUT. A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF THE
CWA TODAY...WITH SOME MID 90S IN WESTERN ZONES. THE DRY LINE IN WEST
TEXAS WILL BE ILL-DEFINED TODAY...BUT STILL SOME ISOLATED HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION MAY FORM WEST OF THE CWA IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. IF
THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS IT COULD IMPACT FAR NORTHWEST ZONES THIS
EVENING. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND
TOWARD MORNING FOR THE NW ZONES AS STRONGER FORCING BEGINS TO ARRIVE
INTO THE REGION...WHICH MAY SPARK SOME ELEVATED STORMS. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND IN THE 70S COMPLEMENTS OF MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A ROBUST STRATUS INVASION BEFORE DAYBREAK.
THERE IS A BIT OF GOOD NEWS IN THE FORECAST REGARDING THE BADLY
NEEDED RAINFALL CHANCES WITH THE THURSDAY SYSTEM. ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY ABOUT
6 TO 9 HOURS...AND THEREFORE NOW SHOW THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING
FOR LIFT COINCIDING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. YESTERDAY THERE WAS
CONCERN THAT THE LIFT WOULD BE EXITING THE REGION BY THE TIME THE
FRONT ARRIVED. THIS MORE FAVORABLE SETUP WARRANTS INCREASING POPS A
LITTLE MORE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY EVENING.
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN AREAS.
ONE NOTE REGARDING THE POP FORECAST...THE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR LOOK LIKE THEY WILL OCCUR IN THE 4PM TO 9PM
TIME FRAME...AND THEREFORE IT IS BEING SPLIT INTO 2 VERIFICATION
PERIODS. QUITE SIMPLY THIS MEANS THAT IF WE WERE TO FORECAST A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THIS ENTIRE EVENT...POPS FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR
WOULD BE HIGHER THAN BOTH OF THE VALUES FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT INDICATE. THEY ARE ARTIFICIALLY LOWER BECAUSE THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON WHICH VERIFICATION WINDOW THE RAIN FALLS IN BECAUSE
IT SO CLOSE TO THE END OF ONE AND THE START OF THE NEXT.
THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW ZONES DRY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG IT BY 3 PM. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND UPPER FORCING WILL ALSO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING...AND
THEREFORE WILL WORK TO WEAKEN A MODEST CAP OVER THE REGION. TEMPS
WILL BE HOT AGAIN THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S OVER THE
REGION...AND WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70...THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE
CAPE OF 1500-2500J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE MODES...AND THEREFORE A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL EXIST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM MODES WILL
LIKELY BE MORE LINEAR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT A FEW
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ZONES WHERE THE CAP IS STRONGER AND WILL INHIBIT A SOLID LINE FROM
DEVELOPING. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. LOW LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TOO VEERED AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
TO SUPPORT A TORNADO POTENTIAL WORTH MENTIONING...BUT OF COURSE THIS
IS A NON-ZERO THREAT WHEN SURFACE BASED SUPERCELLS ARE ANTICIPATED.
AGAIN NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAIN AS ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED IN WESTERN ZONES AND SCATTERED ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES. THOSE
THAT DO SEE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PICK UP AN INCH OF RAINFALL.
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL INVADE THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER ON
FRIDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL SETTLE IN OVER NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 40...THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET INTO THE
40S AND 50S OVER THE AREA. SATURDAY LOOKS VERY NICE WITH LIGHT
WINDS...SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS AROUND 80. SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL. HIGHER MOISTURE
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE QUICKLY EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
HIGHER MOISTURE. SOME UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S FOR HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
BY TUESDAY...WITH LOWS AGAIN WARMING INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
THE GFS INDICATES LIGHT QPF OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT
MODEL SOUNDING SHOW THIS IS JUST A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE BENEATH
A STRONG INVERSION. RAINFALL LOOKS UNLIKELY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE
SOME DRIZZLE OR ADVECTION FOG MAY OCCUR. EITHER WAY THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY AS NORTH TEXAS WILL BE IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH THE UPPER ENERGY FOR LIFT REMAINING TO OUR NORTHEAST.
TR.92
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1138 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE RETURN OF STRATUS
OVERNIGHT...BUT BEING A BIT OF AN OUTLIER LEADS TO THE BELIEF THAT
IT MAY BE OVERDOING IT. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE LEANING MORE
TOWARDS THE RAP AND GFS SOLUTIONS WHICH INDICATE GOOD NORTHWARD
MOISTURE SURGE WITHIN THE 25KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...BUT
GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS PLACES THE DALLAS AREA
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK FIRST THING IN THE
MORNING...SO WE WILL MAINTAIN THE MVFR CIGS AT KDAL AND KDFW 13Z
UNTIL 16Z. STRATUS SHOULD ARRIVE A FEW HOURS EARLIER AT KACT.
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN VFR. STRATUS WILL LIKELY
RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CONVECTION STILL A
POSSIBILITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEYOND THIS TAF SET.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 93 76 93 63 83 / 5 10 40 20 0
WACO, TX 93 75 95 62 85 / 5 5 30 40 5
PARIS, TX 88 71 90 58 78 / 10 10 50 60 0
DENTON, TX 93 73 92 57 81 / 5 10 40 10 0
MCKINNEY, TX 92 73 92 59 82 / 5 10 50 30 0
DALLAS, TX 93 76 93 63 83 / 5 5 40 30 0
TERRELL, TX 93 75 93 62 83 / 5 5 40 50 0
CORSICANA, TX 93 75 93 64 83 / 10 5 30 60 5
TEMPLE, TX 92 74 94 63 85 / 5 5 20 40 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 94 73 92 56 83 / 5 10 30 5 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1202 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions at KSJT and KABI through the forecast
period. However, MVFR CIGS will develop across the KJCT, KBBD, and
KSOA terminals after 10Z. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms
have developed to the west of the forecast area, these are not
expected to affect any of the aforementioned terminals. Gusty
south winds will return to the San Angelo and Abilene areas
sometime after 14Z tomorrow morning. Winds will also become gusty
across the Brady, Junction, and Sonora areas, though not until
after 17Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Gusty south winds are coming to an end as well as any chance of
seeing precipitation. VFR conditions are expected to prevail
across the KABI and KSJT terminals through the forecast period,
though gusty south winds will likely return early tomorrow
morning. Farther south and east MVFR CIGS are expected to develop
during the early morning hours. Since confidence has increased in
the development of low clouds across KJCT, KBBD, and KSOA, MVFR
CIGS were added after 10Z. Low clouds will likely scatter sometime
after 17Z tomorrow.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
SHORT TERM...
/Tonight and Wednesday/
Isolated showers have been affecting the Big County this afternoon,
embedded within the mid-level moist axis streaming across the Lone
Star State from southwest to northeast. The RAP Mesoanalysis
indicates a narrow axis of MLCAPE values approaching 1500 J/kg
across the western counties this afternoon, but even the cu
development as been rather limited, suggesting a pretty strong cap.
We are seeing a bit more vertical development in the cu field over
the Trans-Pecos area, however, and any convection that develops may
drift into the southwest zones. Thus, the slight chance PoPs were
retained this evening, mainly west of a line from Ozona, to Robert
Lee, to Miller Creek Reservoir. Winds will be a few mph stronger
than what was observed last night and, combined with the increasing
low-level moisture, should support min temps in the mid to upper 60s.
On Wednesday, the thermal ridge axis will shift east, resulting in
850mb temps of 24-25C across the Big Country and Concho Valley by
peak heating. With low-level adiabatic lapse rates during the
afternoon hours, we should have little problem warming into the
lower 90s across much of the area. These warm temperatures may
strain the cap to its breaking point by late afternoon, so the
mention of showers and thunderstorms was retained after 20z (3 PM).
Coverage is expected to remain very limited, but any storms that
develop could be strong.
LONG TERM...
/Wednesday night through Monday/
Afternoon water vapor imagery shows a strengthening trough
progressing southeast across the Inter-mountain West, upper-level
moisture streaming northeast across west central Texas from Tropical
Depression Rachel, and a shortwave trough lifting northeast across
the Dakotas. A dryline observed in surface observations extends
south through the Texas Panhandle, with a few showers developing
ahead of this feature. Ahead of this dryline, southeasterly surface
winds continue to advect moisture into the region from the Gulf of
Mexico.
The trend in the model solutions the past few days has been to delay
the arrival of a cold front. This trend has continued today with the
GFS and ECMWF trending towards the NAM model. Convective
temperatures are expected to be reached tomorrow evening. With
sufficient moisture/good instability in place, shower and
thunderstorm development will be possible, mainly north and west of
a line from San Angelo to Baird. Forecast soundings show SBCAPEs in
excess of 2000 J/kg, around 20-25 Kts of 0-6km shear, and T/TD
spreads around 30 degrees F. With this type of environment, a few
strong thunderstorms will be possible.
With the arrival of the upper trough Thursday, a cold front will
cross the area during the day. For Thursday, moisture, instability,
and shear will increase ahead of the cold front, with forecast
soundings indicating convective temperatures being reached, and a
higher potential for strong thunderstorms/possibly a few severe/ if
frontal timing in the models are correct. Friday will feature cooler
temperatures, with highs near 80 degrees. Another disturbance will
cross the Central Plains this weekend sending a weak cold front
south. This front will stall across the area on Sunday, with
increasing surface moisture likely south of the front. However,
moisture return looks insufficient for shower development at this
time. Overall confidence is moderate in rain chances
Wednesday/Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 69 92 72 92 56 / 10 10 20 20 5
San Angelo 69 93 73 89 57 / 10 5 10 20 10
Junction 66 91 73 90 60 / 5 5 5 20 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation: Dunn
Short/Long Term: Johnson/60
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1138 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.AVIATION...
THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE RETURN OF STRATUS
OVERNIGHT...BUT BEING A BIT OF AN OUTLIER LEADS TO THE BELIEF THAT
IT MAY BE OVERDOING IT. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE LEANING MORE
TOWARDS THE RAP AND GFS SOLUTIONS WHICH INDICATE GOOD NORTHWARD
MOISTURE SURGE WITHIN THE 25KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...BUT
GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS PLACES THE DALLAS AREA
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK FIRST THING IN THE
MORNING...SO WE WILL MAINTAIN THE MVFR CIGS AT KDAL AND KDFW 13Z
UNTIL 16Z. STRATUS SHOULD ARRIVE A FEW HOURS EARLIER AT KACT.
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN VFR. STRATUS WILL LIKELY
RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CONVECTION STILL A
POSSIBILITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEYOND THIS TAF SET.
30
&&
.UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES BEFORE
SUNSET DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET.
OTHER THAN REMOVING THE MENTION OF EVENING SHOWERS...NO MAJOR
CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
79
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. THIS AFTERNOON WHICH ARE PART
OF A LARGER LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE FIRST IS QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR PROVIDING FORCING FOR
ASCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE PRIMARY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL REMOVED FROM NORTH TEXAS. THIS LEAD
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED 994MB SURFACE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS
HAS HELPED PULL SOME HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR INTO NORTH TEXAS WHICH
HAS RESULTED IN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IS JUST NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL QUICKLY DIVE SOUTHEAST AND DEEPEN
OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. MEANWHILE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TOMORROW. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL EJECT NORTHEAST
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY SENDING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON THE AMOUNT OF
FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.
THE NAM IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH AND THEREFORE HAS THE BEST COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THE OTHER
GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY CLUSTERED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND THIS FORECAST WILL FAVOR THAT TRACK FOR THE
UPPER LOW. THIS MEANS THAT THE BEST FORCING WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
AREA...HOWEVER THE FRONT IS STRONG AND THERE WILL BE AMPLE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT ALONG WITH SOME DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT
FROM THE UPPER TROUGH.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AROUND MIDDAY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR
WITH MOST ACTIVITY BEING NORTH OF I-20 INITIALLY. THE LINE SHOULD
EXPAND SOUTHWARD IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH BEST
OVERALL RAIN CHANCES HOLDING EAST OF I-35 THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT.
THE FRONT WILL BE FAST MOVING AND SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING AND COOLER...DRIER AIR
MOVING IN. THE CENTER OF A SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVER NORTH TEXAS
SATURDAY MORNING AND THAT SHOULD BE THE COOLEST MORNING WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S AREAWIDE. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING BACK INTO THE
UPPER 80S BY MONDAY.
DUNN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 73 92 75 88 62 / 5 5 10 40 20
WACO, TX 71 92 75 90 64 / 5 5 5 30 30
PARIS, TX 69 89 72 87 60 / 10 5 10 50 30
DENTON, TX 68 92 74 88 58 / 5 5 10 30 10
MCKINNEY, TX 70 91 74 88 59 / 5 5 10 40 20
DALLAS, TX 73 92 75 89 63 / 5 5 5 40 20
TERRELL, TX 73 92 74 89 61 / 5 5 5 50 30
CORSICANA, TX 72 91 73 90 63 / 10 5 5 40 40
TEMPLE, TX 69 92 73 90 63 / 5 5 5 20 30
MINERAL WELLS, TX 68 93 71 89 57 / 5 5 10 20 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
950 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT TO INCLUDE A FEW OF THE
LOWER VALLEYS...INCLUDING DURANGO...PAGOSA SPRINGS...THE I-70
CORRIDOR FROM DEBEQUE TO EAGLE AND ACROSS THE EASTERN UINTA BASIN
IN NORTHEAST UTAH. NEW MET GUIDANCE COMING IN A FEW DEGREES COLDER
IN MANY AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE NEED FOR FREEZE WARNINGS
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST AS WELL THIS MORNING...NOW IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL ZONES
WITH A BREAK ARRIVING BEHIND THIS INITIAL WAVE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 743 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND
IN COVERAGE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO
THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. SOME SNOW FALLING ABOVE THE 10K MARK
BASED ON WEBCAMS AND CDOT REPORTS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS NOTED
ON VAIL PASS. AS THE FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 9K...WHICH IS HANDLED
IN CURRENT WINTER HIGHLIGHTS. WILL ALSO EVALUATE THE NEED TO
EXPAND THE FREEZE WATCHES INTO OTHER VALLEY LOCATIONS AS NEW
MODEL DATA ARRIVES LATER THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
NEXT DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE HAS SPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND THE SURFACE FRONT CUTTING ACROSS NE UTAH HAS
ALLOWED PCPN AND STORMS TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE TAVAPUTS AND ROAN
PLATEAU. THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAMDNG25 HAVE
DEPICTED THIS TREND. ADJUSTED GRIDDED PCPN FORECAST TO REFLECT
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT FREQUENT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THIS
AREA. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS NW
COLORADO WITH THE SRN TAIL REACHING THE WRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS MORNING (WITH DRYING TREND ACROSS ERN UTAH). THE RAP
MODEL DOES NOT SHOW MUCH CAPE...BUT THE MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
HAS STEEPEN LAPSE RATES THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE WET BULB ZERO
LINE DROPS BELOW 10K FEET WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SO THE
IDEA THAT THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 9K FEET
SEEMS REASONABLE. MODELS SHOW DECENT QPF VALUES FOR THE NWRN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS...GRAND MESA...ELKS/WEST ELKS AND MONARCH...HENCE
HAVE ELECTED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 9K FEET
FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
THIS EVENING THE NEW COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR THROUGH THE
REGION. THE -21C COLD CORE PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COLORADO ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED IN THE
NEW AIR MASS ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE COLD ADVECTION IS STRONGEST ACROSS NW COLORADO THAT WILL
EFFICIENTLY WRING OUT ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE. LIGHT SNOW MAY
PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ALL BUT THE LOWEST VALLEY ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE
LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL FASTER THAN
THE TEMPERATURES FOR LITTLE THREAT OF FOG...THOUGH SOME RIVER FOG
MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THURSDAY IN A DRY NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND NW GRADIENT WINDS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST KEEPING THE
REGION IN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA AND THE MAIN
WESTERLIES WELL NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF COLORADO. DRY AND STABLE AIR
MASS MEANS DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE WESTERLIES
RETREAT NORTHWARD...A SLOW WARMING TREND ALLOWS TEMPS TO CLIMB
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z. NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR 09-15Z MTNS WILL OBSCURED AT TIMES IN LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. KVEL KCAG KHDN KSBS ALL WILL SEE PERIODS OF VSBY
BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 AFTER 09Z. FOR KCNY KGJT KMTJ KTEX KRIL KASE
KEGE EXPECT DETERIORATING CIGS AFTER 15Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AFT
18Z OF VSBY BLO 5SM CIGS BLO 040 IN -SHRA/-TSRA. KTEX KEGE KASE
COULD ALL SEE PERIODS OF IFR VSBY BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 IN
-SHSN/-TSSN AFTER 21Z. KDRO WILL REMAIN VFR EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS 18-23Z.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
COZ001-002-005-007-008-014-022-023.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ004-
009-010-012-013-018.
UT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
UTZ024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ023.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...JOE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
748 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 743 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND
IN COVERAGE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO
THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. SOME SNOW FALLING ABOVE THE 10K MARK
BASED ON WEBCAMS AND CDOT REPORTS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS NOTED
ON VAIL PASS. AS THE FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 9K...WHICH IS HANDLED
IN CURRENT WINTER HIGHLIGHTS. WILL ALSO EVALUATE THE NEED TO
EXPAND THE FREEZE WATCHES INTO OTHER VALLEY LOCATIONS AS NEW
MODEL DATA ARRIVES LATER THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
NEXT DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE HAS SPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND THE SURFACE FRONT CUTTING ACROSS NE UTAH HAS
ALLOWED PCPN AND STORMS TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE TAVAPUTS AND ROAN
PLATEAU. THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAMDNG25 HAVE
DEPICTED THIS TREND. ADJUSTED GRIDDED PCPN FORECAST TO REFLECT
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT FREQUENT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THIS
AREA. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS NW
COLORADO WITH THE SRN TAIL REACHING THE WRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS MORNING (WITH DRYING TREND ACROSS ERN UTAH). THE RAP
MODEL DOES NOT SHOW MUCH CAPE...BUT THE MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
HAS STEEPEN LAPSE RATES THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE WET BULB ZERO
LINE DROPS BELOW 10K FEET WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SO THE
IDEA THAT THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 9K FEET
SEEMS REASONABLE. MODELS SHOW DECENT QPF VALUES FOR THE NWRN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS...GRAND MESA...ELKS/WEST ELKS AND MONARCH...HENCE
HAVE ELECTED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 9K FEET
FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
THIS EVENING THE NEW COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR THROUGH THE
REGION. THE -21C COLD CORE PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COLORADO ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED IN THE
NEW AIR MASS ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE COLD ADVECTION IS STRONGEST ACROSS NW COLORADO THAT WILL
EFFICIENTLY WRING OUT ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE. LIGHT SNOW MAY
PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ALL BUT THE LOWEST VALLEY ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE
LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL FASTER THAN
THE TEMPERATURES FOR LITTLE THREAT OF FOG...THOUGH SOME RIVER FOG
MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THURSDAY IN A DRY NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND NW GRADIENT WINDS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST KEEPING THE
REGION IN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA AND THE MAIN
WESTERLIES WELL NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF COLORADO. DRY AND STABLE AIR
MASS MEANS DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE WESTERLIES
RETREAT NORTHWARD...A SLOW WARMING TREND ALLOWS TEMPS TO CLIMB
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z. NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR 09-15Z MTNS WILL OBSCURED AT TIMES IN LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. KVEL KCAG KHDN KSBS ALL WILL SEE PERIODS OF VSBY
BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 AFTER 09Z. FOR KCNY KGJT KMTJ KTEX KRIL KASE
KEGE EXPECT DETERIORATING CIGS AFTER 15Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AFT
18Z OF VSBY BLO 5SM CIGS BLO 040 IN -SHRA/-TSRA. KTEX KEGE KASE
COULD ALL SEE PERIODS OF IFR VSBY BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 IN
-SHSN/-TSSN AFTER 21Z. KDRO WILL REMAIN VFR EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS 18-23Z.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
COZ001-002-005-014.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ004-
009-010-012-013-018.
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ023.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...JOE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
NEXT DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE HAS SPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND THE SURFACE FRONT CUTTING ACROSS NE UTAH HAS
ALLOWED PCPN AND STORMS TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE TAVAPUTS AND ROAN
PLATEAU. THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAMDNG25 HAVE
DEPICTED THIS TREND. ADJUSTED GRIDDED PCPN FORECAST TO REFLECT
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT FREQUENT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THIS
AREA. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS NW
COLORADO WITH THE SRN TAIL REACHING THE WRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS MORNING (WITH DRYING TREND ACROSS ERN UTAH). THE RAP
MODEL DOES NOT SHOW MUCH CAPE...BUT THE MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
HAS STEEPEN LAPSE RATES THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE WET BULB ZERO
LINE DROPS BELOW 10K FEET WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SO THE
IDEA THAT THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 9K FEET
SEEMS REASONABLE. MODELS SHOW DECENT QPF VALUES FOR THE NWRN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS...GRAND MESA...ELKS/WEST ELKS AND MONARCH...HENCE
HAVE ELECTED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 9K FEET
FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
THIS EVENING THE NEW COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR THROUGH THE
REGION. THE -21C COLD CORE PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COLORADO ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED IN THE
NEW AIR MASS ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE COLD ADVECTION IS STRONGEST ACROSS NW COLORADO THAT WILL
EFFICIENTLY WRING OUT ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE. LIGHT SNOW MAY
PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ALL BUT THE LOWEST VALLEY ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE
LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL FASTER THAN
THE TEMPERATURES FOR LITTLE THREAT OF FOG...THOUGH SOME RIVER FOG
MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THURSDAY IN A DRY NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND NW GRADIENT WINDS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST KEEPING THE
REGION IN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA AND THE MAIN
WESTERLIES WELL NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF COLORADO. DRY AND STABLE AIR
MASS MEANS DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE WESTERLIES
RETREAT NORTHWARD...A SLOW WARMING TREND ALLOWS TEMPS TO CLIMB
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z. NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR 09-15Z MTNS WILL OBSCURED AT TIMES IN LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. KVEL KCAG KHDN KSBS ALL WILL SEE PERIODS OF VSBY
BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 AFTER 09Z. FOR KCNY KGJT KMTJ KTEX KRIL KASE
KEGE EXPECT DETERIORATING CIGS AFTER 15Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AFT
18Z OF VSBY BLO 5SM CIGS BLO 040 IN -SHRA/-TSRA. KTEX KEGE KASE
COULD ALL SEE PERIODS OF IFR VSBY BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 IN
-SHSN/-TSSN AFTER 21Z. KDRO WILL REMAIN VFR EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS 18-23Z.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
COZ001-002-005-014.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT MDT
TONIGHT FOR COZ004-009-010-012-013-018.
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ023.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...JOE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
726 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE...ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 636 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN PA AND IS MOVING EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW JERSEY. CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS PICKING UP MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER NEW ENGLAND. THESE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHWEST WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ARE STARTING TO REACH INTO EASTERN
NY...INCLUDING PARTS OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE 08Z 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE AND LATEST RUN OF OUR LOCAL HIRES WRF
SHOW THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY OUR EASTERN
ZONES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT WILL BE NOTICEABLE
DUE TO THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING PROBABLY WON/T MAKE IT ANY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN
THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE AND SFC OBS
SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF STRATUS AS WELL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EASTWARD TO OUR SOUTH
TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...KEEPING THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE.
WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...HAVE SIDED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY
AREAS /UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO OUR EAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ONCE THE CLOUDS FINALLY START TO THIN OUT...ESP FOR ANY
AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S.
MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF CAPE COD...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT 500 HPA. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70
FOR VALLEY AREAS.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH 40S IN MOST AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY DUE TO 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 TO 11 DEGREES
C AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN SETTING UP WITH A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS AS A
LEADING UPPER IMPULSE TRACKS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MEAN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH. THE UPPER IMPULSE GOES
NEGATIVE TILT AND THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL FORCING...IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. COOLING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT..ALONG WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD RESULT IN RATHER
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS INTO THROUGH SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SUNDAY WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE A
PERIOD OF RELATIVE CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN
MOST OTHER AREAS.
ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AROUND TH SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR OVER
OUR REGION AROUND THE MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ONCE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE REGION...MORE PROXIMATE TO THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S SATURDAY...BUT COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THEN...HIGHS AROUND 60 TO MID 60S THROUGH MONDAY...50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST...MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN WILL SLOWLY BUILD WEST AND NORTHWEST. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BUILT
WEST INTO THE REGION...AND BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS...THE
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. VISIBILITIES WILL
BE VFR...MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR IF SOME VERY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AFFECTS
THE REGION...WITH VCSH AT KALB...KPSF AND KPOU WHERE PATCHY VERY
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME PERIODS OF VFR CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL...WHERE THE LEAST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE. VCSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KPSF AND KPOU.
BY EVENING...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD
CONTINUE MAINLY VFR.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS BY THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP
TO 65 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. RH
VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH FOG AND DEW
FORMATION AND NEARLY CALM WINDS.
CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING TO AROUND 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY DUE TO A LACK OF
RECENT RAINFALL.
A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
636 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE...ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 636 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN PA AND IS MOVING EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW JERSEY. CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS PICKING UP MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER NEW ENGLAND. THESE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHWEST WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ARE STARTING TO REACH INTO EASTERN
NY...INCLUDING PARTS OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE 08Z 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE AND LATEST RUN OF OUR LOCAL HIRES WRF
SHOW THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY OUR EASTERN
ZONES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT WILL BE NOTICEABLE
DUE TO THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING PROBABLY WON/T MAKE IT ANY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN
THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE AND SFC OBS
SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF STRATUS AS WELL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EASTWARD TO OUR SOUTH
TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...KEEPING THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE.
WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...HAVE SIDED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY
AREAS /UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO OUR EAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ONCE THE CLOUDS FINALLY START TO THIN OUT...ESP FOR ANY
AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S.
MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF CAPE COD...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT 500 HPA. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70
FOR VALLEY AREAS.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH 40S IN MOST AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY DUE TO 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 TO 11 DEGREES
C AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN SETTING UP WITH A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS AS A
LEADING UPPER IMPULSE TRACKS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MEAN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH. THE UPPER IMPULSE GOES
NEGATIVE TILT AND THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL FORCING...IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. COOLING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT..ALONG WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD RESULT IN RATHER
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS INTO THROUGH SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SUNDAY WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE A
PERIOD OF RELATIVE CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN
MOST OTHER AREAS.
ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AROUND TH SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR OVER
OUR REGION AROUND THE MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ONCE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE REGION...MORE PROXIMATE TO THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S SATURDAY...BUT COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THEN...HIGHS AROUND 60 TO MID 60S THROUGH MONDAY...50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST...MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BUILD WEST AND NORTHWEST. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE
BUILT WEST INTO THE REGION...AND BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR
TRENDS...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR...MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR IF AN ISOLATED SHOWER
AFFECTS THE REGION...WITH VCSH ONLY AT KPSF AND KPOU WHERE ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER COULD BE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME PERIODS OF VFR CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL...WHERE THE LEAST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE. VCSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KPSF AND KPOU.
BY EVENING...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD
CONTINUE MAINLY VFR.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS BY THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP
TO 65 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. RH
VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH FOG AND DEW
FORMATION AND NEARLY CALM WINDS.
CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING TO AROUND 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY DUE TO A LACK OF
RECENT RAINFALL.
A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
940 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE 12Z
TALLAHASSEE...JACKSONVILLE AND TAMPA MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY
AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. CAPE CANAVERAL THE EXCEPTION WHERE
THE DRIER AIR IS STARTING TO FILTER IN WITH A NOTICEABLE DRIER TREND
ABOVE 15000 FEET MOVING IN. THE TAMPA...CAPE AND MIAMI SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WHICH IS UNDERSTANDABLE SINCE THEY
ARE STILL AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARY. THE TALLAHASSEE
AND JACKSONVILLE SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING WESTERLIES ABOVE ROUGHLY 2500
FEET. THE THREE SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WERE INDICATING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.8 INCHES OR HIGHER. FIRST COUPLE OF
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES FROM
NORTHERN OSCEOLA AND BREVARD NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE
SOUTH AND AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARY. LASTLY BOTH THE
CURRENT RUC UPDATE RUN AND 06Z GFS SHOW VORTICITY MAXES MOVING
OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY.
DAYTIME HEATING LOOKS TO BE LIMITED OVER THE NORTH BUT BETTER TO THE
SOUTH WHERE THE MOISTURE RESIDES. GFS SHOWING A FLATTER MID
LEVEL/500MB FLOW WHICH WOULD INDICATE SLOWER BOUNDARY MOVEMENT TO
THE SOUTH.
AFTERNOON FORECAST OF 50 POP NORTH AND 60 POP SOUTH LOOKS REASONABLE
BASED ON MORE MOISTURE...BETTER DAYTIME HEATING INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND A VORTICITY MAX MOVING OVERHEAD DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UPDATES TO THE WIND FIELDS.
PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION
CURRENT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES EAST-WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO
SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
BEING OBSERVED NORTH OF THIS FEATURE WITH LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS SOUTH OF IT. MILD AND MUGGY TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT READINGS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S ARE BEING REALIZED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.
TODAY-TONIGHT...WITH THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...
AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WEAK MID-LEVEL ENERGY ALOFT...EXPECT
SCHC-CHC SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING
SHOWER CHANCES (SCT-NMRS) THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ISOLD-
SCT LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO BE FORECAST.
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. EXPECT HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD FROM NEAR KMCO SOUTHWARD...CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND HIGHEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE STEERING
FLOW FOR CELLS WILL REMAIN OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AGAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH NUISANCE FLOODING ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING OFFSHORE
FLOW (CAPE SOUTHWARD) BECOMING LIGHT ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS MAINLY BELOW 10 MPH. EVEN WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WE WILL STILL REALIZE AFTERNOON HIGHS AGAIN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AREAWIDE.
AFTER SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE/MOVE OFF OF THE EAST COAST EARLY THIS
EVENING...EXPECT A FEW AREAS OF LINGERING STRATIFORM RAIN THROUGH
LATE EVENING ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE
LOW AND MID LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT THROUGH LATE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOW AND MID 70S. PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR.
THU...THE BASE OF A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL PRODUCE SOME DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ALOFT
OVER FL. IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
WASHING OUT NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH WILL PRODUCE AN E/NE FLOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS BUT WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER SUPPORT...COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE VERY HIGH.
THE BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE WE HAVE KEPT 40
POPS AND LOWERED ELSEWHERE TO 30 POP. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST (BEACHES) AND NEAR 90 INLAND.
FRI...DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
INCREASE THE WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS OVER FL. THE WEAK
RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DIMINISH AS A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOST OF FRIDAY LOOKS RAIN-
FREE...AT LEAST INTO EARLY AFTN...BUT A SEA BREEZE COLLISION LATE
IN THE DAY OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD SPARK SCATTERED STORMS WHICH
WILL PUSH EAST TO THE COAST TOWARD EVENING. HAVE DRAWN 40 POPS ALL
AREAS BUT AREAS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE NORTH INTERIOR
(NORTH OF ORLANDO) LOOK THE MOST FAVORED.
WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FIRST COOL FRONT OF THE
SEASON WILL PUSH THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND BRING A NOTICEABLE AIR
MASS CHANGE. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT ESPECIALLY FROM ORLANDO SOUTHWARD SAT AFTN. THE FAST MOVING
STORMS SHOULD NOT PRODUCE MUCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATION BUT COULD
CONTAIN STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. N/NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING LOWER HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTH LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES...60S ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY LOOKS QUITE REFRESHING WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S
WITH NORTH WINDS 10 MPH...A LITTLE STRONGER ALONG THE COAST.
MON-TUE...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE FL STRAITS AND
NW BAHAMAS. DO NOT HAVE ANY MENTIONABLE POPS EITHER DAY BUT SOME
REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE MAY RETURN NORTHWARD BY TUE AND BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
WILL MONITOR TAF SITES...ESP NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
FOR EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS...WHICH WILL BURN OFF
THRU MID/LATE MORNING...SHOULD ANY DEVELOP. LIGHT EARLY MORNING
WINDS WILL BECOME AN ONSHORE COMPONENT IN THE AFTERNOON. DEEP
MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ESP SOUTHWARD FROM NEAR
KSFB/KMCO...SO SCT-NMRS AFTN SHRA WITH ISOLD-SCT TSRA AGAIN
POSSIBLE. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SOUTH OF KMCO TODAY
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER PCPN CHANCES WILL RESIDE.
LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS STILL MAIN AVIATION THREATS.
BRIEF IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN/AROUND CONVECTION. CELL DIRECTION
WILL BE MAINLY FROM WEST TO EAST. ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN WIND DOWN
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...BUOYS RECORDING WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 KNOTS AND SEAS 1 FOOT JUST OFF THE BEACH TO 3 TO 4 FEET FROM 20NM
AND BEYOND. 1 TO 3 FOOT SEAS AND ONSHORE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
STILL A GOOD FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS THOUGH DEEP MOISTURE RESIDES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH EARLY
MORNING OFFSHORE WINDS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...(NE NORTH OF
IT)...BECOMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS MAINLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS...OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. WESTERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT
WILL AGAIN TAKE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER LAND TO
ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL/NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. MARINERS WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY WESTWARD AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS
AOB 3 FT BUT MAY BE LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF STORMS. DOMINANT WAVE
PERIODS AROUND 8 SECONDS.
THU...FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO WASH OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH PRODUCING E/NE WINDS
10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
FRI...THE RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE ATLC AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS SHOW A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SO
WINDS SHOULD START OUT QUITE LIGHT THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON AROUND 10 KNOTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STORMS TO PUSH OFFSHORE
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY EVENING.
WEEKEND...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS SAT
WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHING EAST AND OFFSHORE DURING
THE AFTN...SOME OF WHICH SHOULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE AROUND 15 KNOTS SAT
AFTN ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND OVERSPREAD ALL THE WATERS SAT
NIGHT AND CONTINUE SUNDAY. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO 5 FEET
OFFSHORE. BOATING CONDITIONS LOOK UNFAVORABLE ESPECIALLY IN THE
GULF STREAM WHERE CAUTION HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SHINGLE CREEK BASIN ON MON CAUSED THE CREEK
AT CAMPBELL TO RISE TO ACTION STAGE LATE EVENING. LATEST GAUGE
INFORMATION SUGGESTS THE CREEK WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE LEVELING OFF WITHIN ACTION STAGE.
WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AS ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN COULD RESULT IN
FURTHER RISES LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVE.
THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR REMAINS SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND MINOR FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. RIVER LEVELS ALSO RISING NEAR DELAND AND LAKE HARNEY AND
THESE SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH ACTION STAGE LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 86 73 88 73 / 50 20 30 20
MCO 89 73 90 72 / 60 20 40 10
MLB 86 74 88 73 / 60 30 40 20
VRB 88 73 89 72 / 60 30 40 20
LEE 89 73 90 72 / 50 20 40 10
SFB 88 73 90 72 / 50 20 30 10
ORL 88 75 90 73 / 60 20 40 10
FPR 88 72 88 71 / 60 30 40 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
IMPACT WX...LASCODY
HYDRO.......GLITTO
FORECASTS...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1057 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
328 AM CDT
A RANGE OF FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH FAIRLY
MILD CONDITIONS TO START WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN/THUNDER USHERING IN
TEMPERATURES MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. EARLY MORNING
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY SPINNING OVER
PENNSYLVANIA WITH A NARROW RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
OF GREATER NOTE IS A BROAD LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. ONE CLOSED UPPER LOW IS SPINNING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH A WEAKER
WAVE MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ANOTHER WAVE IS
DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WILL BE A KEY PLAYER IN OUR
WEATHER GOING INTO THURSDAY/FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IS SPREAD FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOCAL AREA WITH A
STRONG LOW MOVING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
TODAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST TODAY RESULTING IN A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND. WINDS LOOK TO BE
LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE LAKE TO TURN WINDS MORE EASTERLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SO WHILE HIGHS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL
WARM INTO THE 70S...WARMEST WEST AND SOUTH...LAKESHORE AREAS OF NE
IL WILL LIKELY BE HELD INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. NW INDIANA LAKEFRONT
AREAS MAY BE SPARED THE EXTRA COOLING UNLESS WINDS ARE ABLE TO TURN
NORTHEAST. STRATUS MAY BE LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH MID MORNING BUT SHOULD LIFT TO THE NORTH BY LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LOOK TO THICKEN ACROSS NORTHWEST
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...THINGS START TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE TONIGHT AS THE
NORTHERNMOST UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND A SERIES OF
WEAKER WAVES CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
MOVE NORTHEAST AND ACT ON THE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL PUSH BANDS OF SHOWERS
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE FORCING IS NOT TERRIBLY
COHERENT AS IT SPREADS IN EARLY THIS EVENING SO WILL KEEP POPS
LOW...BUT FORCING FOCUSES OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN BEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH LESS COVERAGE
EAST. ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED BUT STILL PRESENT
OVERNIGHT SO WILL INCLUDE THUNDER MENTION MAINLY OVERNIGHT. OVERALL
ACTIVITY LOOKS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BE THE MAIN PERIOD FOR
RAIN/THUNDER AS THE UPPER WAVE NOW MOVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
HELPS AMPLIFY THE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN AS IT REACHES THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS AND CROSSES THE AREA
DURING THE DAY WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THURSDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF
WAVES WILL NEED TO BE REFINED BUT RIGHT NOW THE MAIN PERIOD FOR
ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY MAY SPREAD INTO THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF THE LOW LOOKS TO BE FILLED WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
PRECIP. FOCUSED FORCING LOOKS TO BE HELD BACK ACROSS
MISSOURI/OKLAHOMA/KANSAS DURING THE DAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
KICKING THE SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS NW MISSOURI LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A LINE OF STORMS TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EVENING. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW FAR
WEST OF THE AREA THE LOW TRACKS WITH A FURTHER WEST TRACK...AS SOME
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING...LEADING TO A BETTER SEVERE THREAT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA THANKS TO A MORE ROBUST WARM SECTOR AND GREATER
INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO HELP MAINTAIN AN INCOMING SQUALL LINE
DURING THE EVENING. STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN
SEVERE THREAT. HEAVY RAINFALL IS A CONCERN AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES PUSH 1.6 OR 1.7 INCHES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH LOOK LIKELY WITH THE EXTENT OF STRONGER
CONVECTION DICTATING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED 2+ INCHES. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WOULD BE THAT THE WAVES OF PRECIP LOOK TO BE MOVING STEADILY.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF PRECIP
WAVES AND CLOUD COVER BUT WITH THE AREA GETTING INTO THE WARM SECTOR
AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP LOOKING TO BE LOWEST DURING THE DAY HIGHS MAY
WARM WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST WITH
GUIDANCE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE IT WILL BE BY 12Z FRIDAY.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN CWA IF NOT HAVING ALREADY
DONE SO BY FRIDAY MORNING SO SOME LINGERING CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE
EAST. A REINFORCING UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE IN FROM CANADA AND CLOSE
OFF BEFORE DROPPING RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL SPREAD IN AS ALL OF THIS OCCURS WITH H85
TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR 0C BY EVENING WITH A GUSTY WEST WIND. IN
ADDITION WITH THE UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA SHOWERS ARE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. BETWEEN THE COLD
ADVECTION AND INCREASING SHOWER POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPS WILL PROBABLY
OCCUR EARLY THEN FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS EXPECT LOW TO MID
50S IF NOT COOLER BY EVENING FOR ALL AREAS...WITH LOWS FALLING TO
AROUND 40 AWAY FROM THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS AND CLOUD
KEEPING MAX COOLING FROM OCCURRING. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE
EAST SATURDAY MORNING BUT EXPECT A DRY DAY BEYOND THAT WITH A SUN
AND CLOUD MIX. HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
WITH BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION THANKS
TO WHAT WILL HAVE EVOLVED INTO A MASSIVE BROAD UPPER LOW OVER
ONTARIO...THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR SHORTWAVES TO PASS ALONG WITH
BOUTS OF CLOUD COVER. AS A RESULT MAX COOLING MAY BE TEMPERED ONCE
AGAIN BUT STILL EXPECT UPPER 30S FOR MOST AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT
BRINGING AT LEAST PATCHY FROST POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE BIG UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE
INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY AS IT WILL BE REINFORCED A FEW TIMES BY WAVES
PUSHING INTO FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL BRING A FEW ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH SOME CONSISTENCY IN A WAVE PASSING LATER
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. EACH WAVE WILL BRING A BRIEF PUSH OF WARM
ADVECTION BUT ANY NOTABLE WARMING DOES NOT LOOK TO OCCUR UNTIL MID
WEEK WHEN UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND THE
EASTERN TROUGH STARTS TO DE-AMPLIFY. SHOULD SEE SOME TEMP MODERATION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT AM WONDERING IF FORECAST HIGHS ARE A LITTLE
WARM...ESPECIALLY IF WE END UP WITH CLOUD COVER EITHER DAY. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT BEST RAIN CHANCES BUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
LOOKS BEST RIGHT NOW.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH PERIOD 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THE DAY.
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP THIS EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THUNDER POSSIBLE.
RODRIGUEZ/KB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LOW STRATUS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY PUSH NORTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS
THIS MORNING...WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE FAR
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD SHIELD JUST NORTH OF ORD. THESE CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
STAYING UNDER 10KT BUT DO ANTICIPATE THIS TO CHANGE BY AROUND THE
14Z TIME FRAME...WHEN SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE AROUND THE 10KT RANGE
AND REMAIN THIS WAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS SOUTHEAST WIND
WILL HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT LIKELY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER WILL
INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS UPSTREAM FORCING WILL ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT TO THE CURRENT AREA OF PRECIP OVER IOWA.
THIS PRECIP WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY REACHING THE RFD
AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD
PUSH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY AXIS
CURRENTLY RESIDES WELL WEST OF THE TERMINALS...THIS WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST AS WELL. CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO PREVAILING THUNDER
POTENTIAL IS LOWER DUE TO QUESTIONS TO THE EXTENT OF THIS EASTWARD
PUSH OF THE BETTER INSTABILITY...AND HIGHER WITH SHOWER CHANCES.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR THUNDER AND SO HAVE INCLUDED IN THE TAF
WITH THE PROB30 GROUP.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH PRECIP TRENDS.
RODRIGUEZ/KB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF TSRA. MVFR LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA LATE.
MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
306 AM CDT
BOTH WINDS AND WAVES HAVE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH/SUBSIDE EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS THE SURFACE FIELD HAS RELAXED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SPANNING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST NORTHEAST TO QUEBEC. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY
WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS LIFTS NORTH INTO
CANADA...AND WHILE A SEPARATE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE PATTERN OVER THE LAKE
DURING THIS TIME WILL TRY AND TIGHTEN UP THROUGH THE DAY BUT WILL
ONLY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS MORE TOWARDS 10 TO 20 KT...AS
SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTH LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS
SPEED AND DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS NORTHEAST REACHING THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL LIKELY RAMP
UP QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS LOW MOVES TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO
WHILE STRENGTHENING...WITH WINDS TO 30 KT LIKELY. A VERY TIGHT
GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS WELL
AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING OVER THE LAKE WILL SUPPORT WINDS TO 30
KT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS EVEN A PERIOD OF GALES
POSSIBLE. THEN EXPECT A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN SPEEDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1045 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
Updated the forecast to reflect the current trends for the showers
and thunderstorms approaching extreme western IL. Also tweaked the
sky cover and temperature forecast with convective debris clouds
advancing into parts of central IL this afternoon.
The latest surface analysis indicated a slow moving warm front
from western Iowa to extreme southeast Missouri. A southwesterly
low level jet was intersecting the front in central MO, keeping
convection developing on the southern end. The convection should
weaken as it moves eastward into the relatively drier air in west
central IL early this afternon. However, isolated showers and a few
rumbles of thunder can not be ruled out, particularly west of the
IL River valley early this afternoon and just west of the I-55
corridor toward sunset.
The HRRR, RAP and NAM models all indicate that as the warm front
slowly shifts northeast toward central IL tonight, an increasing
low level jet will once again produce several rounds of showers
and t-storms. Confidence is high in these scenarios for elevated
convection, so have bumped up PoPs in the entire forecast area
overnight and into Thursday, especially in west central and
central IL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
The upper-level ridge of high pressure that has brought much above
normal temperatures to the Midwest over the past several days will
slowly lose its influence today as a long-wave trough over the
western half of the CONUS begins to translate eastward. 07z/2am
water vapor imagery shows a series of short-waves embedded within
the parent trough, with a lead wave currently ejecting into
western Kansas/Nebraska and another wave further upstream over the
Great Basin. The first wave will lift N/NE today, remaining well
west of Illinois. As a result, convection associated with this
feature across eastern Kansas into central/western Iowa will track
mainly northward into Minnesota/Wisconsin as the day progresses.
Some models are suggesting that precip may reach the far western
KILX CWA by late afternoon: however, given dry airmass initially
in place and a continued easterly component to the wind, think
this is a bit too aggressive. Will therefore go with a dry
forecast across the board today. Skies will start out mostly
sunny, with a gradual increase in cloud cover during the afternoon
west of I-55. Thanks to the sunshine and winds veering to the
southeast, high temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower
80s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
Initial short-wave will pass to the W/NW of Illinois this evening,
while Great Basin feature ejects into the Plains and induces surface
cyclogenesis over the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles. As this low begins
to lift N/NE and airmass moistens, showers and thunderstorms will
develop across west-central Illinois during the evening then spread
eastward toward the Indiana border by Thursday morning. With best
forcing associated with the second wave remaining to the southwest
and forecast soundings still showing a dry layer below 850mb, have
opted to reduce PoPs to just chance along/west of I-55 this
evening. Think better rain chances will arrive mainly across the
western CWA after midnight, with areas further east near the Indiana
border likely staying dry through the entire night.
Low pressure over Oklahoma Thursday morning will track northeastward
into Wisconsin by Thursday night. As it does, it will drag a strong
cold front through central Illinois. Models have been trending
slightly slower with the front, with most solutions now showing
FROPA overnight Thursday. With strongest forcing for convection
staying to the west near the low and associated front, have focused
highest PoPs in the likely category across the western half of the
CWA on Thursday with only chance PoPs along/east of I-57. Will be
another warm day with highs ranging from the middle 70s far
northwest around Galesburg to the middle 80s along/south of I-70.
Main convective event still appears to be on track for Thursday
night as front interacts with an unseasonably moist airmass
characterized by precipitable water values in excess of 1.50. Given
ample deep-layer moisture and strong upper dynamics, will carry
categorical PoPs across the board. Latest Convective Outlook from
SPC suggests the potential for strong to severe storms Thursday
evening as a squall line develops along/ahead of the front.
Front will sweep into Indiana by Friday morning, with a few
lingering showers possible across the Wabash River Valley early in
the day. Main story on Friday will be the windy and much cooler
conditions. Due to a tightening pressure gradient and adequate
mixing, W/NW winds may gust to around 30mph at times. High
temperatures will mainly be in the 60s. An upper wave digging
southward out of Canada may trigger scattered showers across the
region Friday afternoon/night. Timing discrepancies still exist
among the models, so will only mention slight chance for showers
Friday night at this time. Once this feature passes, very cool and
dry conditions are anticipated this weekend. Coolest day will be
Saturday when highs will remain in the 50s and overnight lows will
dip into the upper 30s. After that, northwesterly flow will
prevail through the middle of next week, resulting in a
continuation of below normal temps. Airmass modification will
allow temps to slowly climb back into the upper 60s by Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
Expect VFR conditions all day today with increasing high clouds
this afternoon as showers and storms advance gradually eastward
across N Missouri and E Iowa. That initial wave will primarily
lift toward S Wisconsin, with residual lift moving east into
western Illinois. Showers and storms should hold off near the
terminal sites until 02z for PIA and SPI, advancing slowly east
toward CMI after 09z. The best chances for steady rains will be
for PIA and SPI late tonight where synoptic scale lift appears to
be strongest in time-section analysis. MVFR clouds could develop
once the showers and storms reach any TAF site, but we kept VFR
clouds for now.
Winds will remain primarily southeast today in the 7 to 12kt
range. The cold frontal passage is not expected until Thursday
evening, so south to southeast winds will continue for much of the
next two days.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Miller
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
550 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE
PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. BROAD TROUGH IS OVER MOST OF
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS LEAVES THE AREA IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS MOVING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC.
MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL AND AT MID LEVELS. THE NAM
WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE AND WIND FIELD. MODELS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED OUT A
LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE FOG AND STRATUS
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED. LITTLE CLOUD COVER ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE IN THE EASTERN SIX COUNTIES. THE
SMALL SCALE MODELS HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THIS WELL WITH THE HRRR VERY
CLOSE.
SO NOT ONLY HAVE INCREASED/EXPANDED COVERAGE AND EXTENT...BUT HAVE
ALSO HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN SIX
COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z. NOW TO THE PRECIPITATION. DURING THE
MORNING THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF STRONG UPPER JET MOVES FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AND BY 18Z WILL BE AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON IT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST WITH THE LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
UPPER JET KEEPS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND SOME KIND OF JET
LIFT AFFECTS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF EITHER A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
OR A COUPLE JET STRUCTURE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE WESTERN END OF OUR BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OLD FRONT IS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND
SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AND MORE STABLE OVER THE AREA UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND HAVE CONFINED THEM TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
ALL MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT ALONG WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE NEGATIVE AND WILL ALLOW FOR
A STRONG RESPONSE TO THE LIFT. RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH MOST
IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA RECEIVING RAINFALL. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT
GREAT WITH CAPE BELOW 1000. HOWEVER SHEAR IS VERY GOOD AND MAY
COMPENSATE FOR THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PRESSURE RISES NEAR
5 MB WILL SUPPORT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WHAT COULD ENHANCE THIS THREAT IS THE EXPECTED COLD POOL
GENERATE BY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIFT LOOK TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION GOING UNTIL LATE IN THE MORNING. BREEZY WINDS IN THE
MORNING SHOULD DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MODELS ARE NOW
STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH POTENT UPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE
NIGHT.
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF UPPER JETS AND SOUTHERN END OF ABOVE
MENTIONED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY NORTHERN AND
EASTERN LOCATIONS...DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
JET LIFT AND STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACTING ON LOW
THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. SO
ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES APPROACHING 10 MB SHOULD ALLOW
FOR WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER JET AXIS IS NEAR/OVER THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE DAY. BY 18Z THIS JET MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. ALSO
STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF SUN TO ALLOW SOME MIXING
TO OCCUR. WINDS AT 700 MB RANGE FROM 40 KNOTS TO 55 KNOTS. HOWEVER
MODELS ARE NOT MIXING TO THIS HEIGHT DUE TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE POOR
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS AT THIS TIME. AT THE
VERY LEAST WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER IF BETTER MIXING OCCURS WARNING CRITERIA COULD BE MET...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COOL...MOSTLY FROM THE MIDDLE 50S
TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...SOME GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER THAN THAT. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NOT GETTING VERY WARM AND
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
DEWPOINTS...THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON COULD BE
REACHED. PATCHY FROST COULD BE POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S. LACK OF FORCING AND JET WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 532 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
VAD WIND PROFILE FOR KGLD SHOWS STRONG LOWER LEVEL JET OFF THE
GROUND...WHICH GIVES SOME CONCERN AS TO LLWS. RAP GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LOWER LEVEL JET SHOULD DECREASE IN STRENGTH LATER THIS
MORNING...SO ONLY MENTIONED LLWS FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE NEAR TERM.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS TO KGLD AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.
MODERATE TO HEAVY FOG HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF KMCK THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER LINGERING AREAS OF FOG VERY NEAR THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINAL WARRANTS AN MVFR VISIBILITY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN A FEW HOURS TOWARD
MID MORNING TO ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ003-004-
015-016-029.
CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
433 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE
PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. BROAD TROUGH IS OVER MOST OF
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS LEAVES THE AREA IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS MOVING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC.
MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL AND AT MID LEVELS. THE NAM
WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE AND WIND FIELD. MODELS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED OUT A
LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE FOG AND STRATUS
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED. LITTLE CLOUD COVER ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE IN THE EASTERN SIX COUNTIES. THE
SMALL SCALE MODELS HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THIS WELL WITH THE HRRR VERY
CLOSE.
SO NOT ONLY HAVE INCREASED/EXPANDED COVERAGE AND EXTENT...BUT HAVE
ALSO HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN SIX
COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z. NOW TO THE PRECIPITATION. DURING THE
MORNING THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF STRONG UPPER JET MOVES FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AND BY 18Z WILL BE AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON IT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST WITH THE LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
UPPER JET KEEPS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND SOME KIND OF JET
LIFT AFFECTS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF EITHER A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
OR A COUPLE JET STRUCTURE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE WESTERN END OF OUR BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OLD FRONT IS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND
SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AND MORE STABLE OVER THE AREA UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND HAVE CONFINED THEM TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
ALL MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT ALONG WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE NEGATIVE AND WILL ALLOW FOR
A STRONG RESPONSE TO THE LIFT. RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH MOST
IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA RECEIVING RAINFALL. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT
GREAT WITH CAPE BELOW 1000. HOWEVER SHEAR IS VERY GOOD AND MAY
COMPENSATE FOR THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PRESSURE RISES NEAR
5 MB WILL SUPPORT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WHAT COULD ENHANCE THIS THREAT IS THE EXPECTED COLD POOL
GENERATE BY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIFT LOOK TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION GOING UNTIL LATE IN THE MORNING. BREEZY WINDS IN THE
MORNING SHOULD DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MODELS ARE NOW
STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH POTENT UPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE
NIGHT.
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF UPPER JETS AND SOUTHERN END OF ABOVE
MENTIONED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY NORTHERN AND
EASTERN LOCATIONS...DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
JET LIFT AND STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACTING ON LOW
THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. SO
ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES APPROACHING 10 MB SHOULD ALLOW
FOR WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER JET AXIS IS NEAR/OVER THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE DAY. BY 18Z THIS JET MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. ALSO
STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF SUN TO ALLOW SOME MIXING
TO OCCUR. WINDS AT 700 MB RANGE FROM 40 KNOTS TO 55 KNOTS. HOWEVER
MODELS ARE NOT MIXING TO THIS HEIGHT DUE TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE POOR
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS AT THIS TIME. AT THE
VERY LEAST WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER IF BETTER MIXING OCCURS WARNING CRITERIA COULD BE MET...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COOL...MOSTLY FROM THE MIDDLE 50S
TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...SOME GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER THAN THAT. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NOT GETTING VERY WARM AND
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
DEWPOINTS...THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON COULD BE
REACHED. PATCHY FROST COULD BE POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S. LACK OF FORCING AND JET WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
ONLY CAUSE FOR CONCERN IS SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOG AROUND KMCK. MOST GUIDANCE HINTS THAT
FOG REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF TERMINAL BUT IT IS A LITTLE CLOSE FOR
COMFORT. PLACED A 6SM BR/SCT015 GROUP AS A HEDGE FOR NOW AND WILL
REFINE THIS GROUP AT THE 06Z RUN. OTHER THAN THAT...EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH PERIODS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ003-004-
015-016-029.
CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1123 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1120 AM UPDATE: THE LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO BURN OFF IN
THE NORTH AND IS ONLY VERY SLOWLY ERODING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE. THEREFOR, BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR THESE AREAS IN THE NORTH INCLUDING
CARIBOU AND PRESQUE ISLE. BASED ON LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS, UPPER
AIR PLOTS, AND RAP DATA MORE WIDESPREAD CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS
IN THE NORTH DOES NOT LOOK TO OCCUR UNTIL AROUND 2PM OR SO. ALSO
ADJUSTED DOWN HOURLY TEMPS AND DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TODAY IN THE
NORTH DUE TO CLOUDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER FOR NRN AND CENTRAL MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ITS
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
A CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CLEARING
SKIES WILL BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE GFS/NAM/GEM/AND
ECMWF ALL INDICATE THAT THE LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY OR SLIGHTLY REGRESS TO THE NW THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
OF MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION FROM EASTERN QUEBEC.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS LABRADOR/NEWFOUNDLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING OCCLUDED FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS
LABRADOR/NEW NEWFOUNDLAND.
EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FRO SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT HEADING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKYS WILL ALLOW FOG TO SETTLE
BACK IN TOMORROW MRNG ACROSS NRN MAINE. MVFR IN BGR WILL BECOME
VFR AFTER MID MRNG. BKN CLD COVER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS FOR BHB WILL BECOME MVFR AFTER MID MRNG AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR WNDS FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM 10 AM TO
MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AN SCA FOR SEAS MAY
BE REQUIRED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SEAS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY HIGH AND NEAR SCA LEVELS THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING HEADING INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/NORTON/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
612 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A COMPACT 995 MB LOW NEAR RUGBY
/ND/ WITH A TRAILING SFC COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT DOWN THROUGH THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS THAT EVENTUALLY WORKS INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. TO
THE EAST...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE ACROSS ONTARIO...BUT DRY
SE WINDS EMANATING FROM IT HAVE REALLY IMPEDED THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE MPX CWA...TO THIS POINT ANYWAYS. ALOFT...THE
FEATURE OF INTEREST SHOWS UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING
INTO WRN KS...AND THIS WAVE WILL BE OVER SRN MN BY THE AFTERNOON.
SE WINDS EMANATING FROM THE GREAT LAKES HIGH HAS HELD SFC DEWPS IN
THE 40S ACROSS ERN MN/WRN WI THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH COMBINED WITH
THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE AND ITS FORCING GOING DUE NORTH THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO SRN CANADA...BYPASSING THE MPX AREA TO THE
NW...RESULTED IN THE MPX CWA REMAINING MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...AS THE KS WAVE APPROACHES...CONTINUED HEIGHT FALLS OUT
AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE ERN HALF
OF THE MPX AREA WITHIN THE ZONE OF GREATEST ASCENT WITHIN THE
LLJ...WHICH WILL BE WORKING UP THROUGH WRN WI. HI-RES REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS CERTAINLY BEAR THE LOOK OF A LIMITED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FORECAST...SO HAVE CONTINUE TO HOLD A THUNDER MENTION THROUGH THE
DAY AT ISOLATED. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF QPF WITH A GOOD
HALF TO ONE RAIN OF RAIN FALLING TODAY ALONG/EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...USED A PRETTY MUCH EVEN MODEL BLEND FOR
QPF...WHICH RESULTED IN THE DESIRED HALF TO ONE INCH AMOUNTS. OF
COURSE WITH THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN FALLING INTO AN AIRMASS WITH DEWPS
CURRENTLY IN THE 40S...IT WILL NOT WARM UP MUCH TODAY...SO COOLED
HIGHS ACROSS ERN MN/WRN WI...KEEPING THEM MAINLY IN THE 50S.
OUT IN WRN MN...DID INTRODUCE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS OUT THERE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE THREAT FOR SEEING ISO-SCT
SHOWERS/STORM DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BE
ENTERING WRN MN DURING PEAK HEATING. MOST GUIDANCE POINTS TO SOME
BREAKS DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON OUT WEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S. THE NAM SHOWS 500-1000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE WORKING EAST WITH THE FRONT TODAY...SO FELT SOME 20/30 POPS
WERE WARRANTED OUT WEST WITH THE HRRR SHOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT BY THE AFTERNOON AND THE 01.00 ECMWF
SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT QPF OUT IN WRN MN ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AS WELL.
FOR TONIGHT...DRIED OUT THE ENTIRE CWA AFTER 6Z AS THE KS WAVE WILL
BE WELL OFF INTO NRN MN BY THEN...WITH ANY ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT
LOSING INTEREST WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. BY 12Z THU...THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE MN/WI BORDER. WINDS WILL BE CALM/LIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SO WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WATCH
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS ERN MN/WRN WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD IN THE 7-DAY FORECAST IS THE THU-FRI
TIME FRAME WITH A DEEP TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA THAT IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER MT/ID/NV BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WE DELAYED THE ONSET
OF PRECIP ON THURSDAY TO INCLUDE A MORE DEFINED BREAK IN THE
PRECIP BETWEEN THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE ONE EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK. THIS
ENTIRE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND THERE HAS
ALSO BEEN AN EASTWARD TREND IN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE 10.00Z
NAM WAS THE FARTHEST WEST AND THUS WETTEST SOLUTION FOR THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT EVEN THE 10.06Z GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED EAST -
ALTHOUGH THE NAM STILL HAS REALLY GOOD FGEN AND HEAVY BANDED
PRECIP IN WESTERN WI AND FAR EASTERN MN FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WAS
ALSO AN EASTWARD SHIFT WITH 10.00Z ECMWF. THE GFS SORT OF SPLITS
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM AND ECMWF. THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
PRECIP LOCALLY IS DUE TO THE DEVELOPING DRY SLOT WITH MOST OF THE
PRECIP POTENTIALLY SLIDING EAST. EVEN IF MOST OF THE PRECIP
SLIDES EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...THE POTENT UPPER
WAVE SHOULD PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION
AND STRONG WINDS DURING THE DAY.
FRIDAY LOOKS QUITE BLUSTERY AND WE ARE NOW THINKING MANY LOCATIONS
MIGHT NOT EVEN HIT 50 FOR A HIGH. THE GUSTY WINDS...CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN WILL MAKE THE UPPER 40S FEEL EVEN COOLER. SPEAKING OF
THE WIND...WE WILL LIKELY BE WITHIN 5-10 MPH OF WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN MN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A HIGH BUILDS
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SPEED OF THE MSLP PRESSURE FALLS IS
NOT WELL AGREED UPON AMONGST THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF. THE CIPS ANALOGS
FOR FRIDAY ARE NOT VERY CONVINCING FOR WIND ADVISORY...BUT STILL
SHOW PLENTY OF WIND AND ALSO MATCH MANY OCTOBER DAYS WHERE MN/WI
STAYED IN THE 40S FOR HIGHS. NONETHELESS...WE HAVE SUSTAINED 25-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THE FORECAST FOR MN SIMPLY BASED ON
THE NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING REALLY GOOD MIXING WITH
THE COLD ADVECTION AND 40-50KTS AT 850MB BY 00Z SATURDAY.
FOR THE MOST PART WE THINK THE COMING WEEKEND WILL BE DRY...BUT
STILL QUITE COOL. THERE HAS BEEN SOME RUNS SHOWING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF LONGWAVE
TROUGH WHICH ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER UPPER MISS...GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST US EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...A VAST MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ATTACHED TO THE CORE OF THE TROUGH WHERE
THERE IS MUCH BETTER LIFT. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE NEXT WEEK
WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE TROUGH ANCHORED AND THE ECMWF BEING MUCH
MORE PROGRESSIVE IN BUILDING HEIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
RAIN IS QUICKLY OVERSPREADING ERN MN/WRN WI THIS MORNING...A
SCENARIO THAT HAS BEEN HANDLED WELL BE THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE
HRRR. AS A RESULT...FOLLOWED THE HRRR PRETTY CLOSE FOR TIMING THE
AREA OF RAIN CURRENTLY HEADING OUR DIRECTION IN IOWA.
OVERNIGHT...WE SAW IFR/MVFR CIGS EXPAND ACROSS WRN MN OUT AHEAD A
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WAS ONLY ABOUT TO ABERDEEN AT 12Z. THE RAP
HAS HAD A GOOD HANDEL ON BOTH THE FRONT AND BACK EDGES OF THIS
CLOUD SHIELD...SO FOLLOWED ITS IDEA FOR TIMING IMPROVEMENTS BACK
TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. ABOUT THE ONLY BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH TAFS TODAY IS CIGS MAY COME IN A BIT LOWER /USED
THE SCT IFR GROUPS FOR THAT POSSIBILITY/ AND WE MAY BE A BIT TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH VFR IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
AFTERNOON...THE DAKOTAS FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO WRN MN...WITH
THE HRRR SHOWING SCT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT...SO ADDED
A VCSH TO AXN/RWF FOR THAT. LATE TONIGHT...IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT
ERN MN AND WRN WI WILL BE DEALING WITH LOW STRATUS AND FOG AS THE
FRONT GETS HUNG UP ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER. THERE WILL BE LGT AND
VRB WINDS AND PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...KEPT THE TAFS FOR RNH/EAU CLOSE TO WHAT
THE LAMP HAS.
KMSP...
ASSUMING THE HRRR IS CORRECT...AND I SEE NO REASON WHY IT WOULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY OFF THE MARK...LOOKS GOOD TO SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF
-RA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHETHER OR NOT CIGS WILL GO SUB 1K...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THE
CIGS WILL DIP UNDER 018 AS THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD ARRIVES. FOR
TONIGHT...THE SREF MVFR CIG/VIS PROBABILITIES HAVE MSP ON THE WRN
EDGE OF THE BETTER PROBABILITIES FOR LOW CIGS AND FG/BR...BUT WITH
WINDS LOOKING LIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP NEAR THE TWIN
CITIES...LOOKS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT THAT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH
SOME PRETTY LOW CONDS THU MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MAINLY MVFR WITH CHC -SHRA. WINDS WNW 20G30 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
649 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
INTERESTING MESO-BETA SCALE CHANGES ARE MODIFYING THE CONDITIONS
AND NECESSITATING SHORT-TERM CHANGES TO THE FCST. A SERIES OF
GRAVITY WAVES HAVE EMANATED FROM THE SHWR ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPED
OVER CUSTER COUNTY. THIS HAS INITIATED AN ARC OF CLEARING OF THE
STRATUS FROM NW-SE. THE SKY FCST WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED. WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NW BEHIND THESE WAVES...BUT ARE STILL LIGHT
ENOUGH WITH LOW DWPT DEPRESSIONS THAT THIS CLEARING COULD ALLOW
FOG TO REDEVELOP.
SO EXPECT A TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT OF SKY/VSBY...BUT VSBYS COULD
LOWER AGAIN IN FOG.
AN SPS WAS POSTED AT 520 AM FOR PATCHES OF DENSE FOG. IT EXPIRES
AT 630. WE WILL CONT TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR ANOTHER ISSUANCE. AT
THIS TIME...THE ONLY DENSE FOG WAS OVER PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL KS.
UPDATED FCST WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
ALOFT: A SHORTWAVE TROF WAS MOVING THRU EARLY THIS MORNING AND
HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH CLOUDS AND EVEN TSTMS
OVER FILLMORE/THAYER COUNTIES. ANOTHER MORE POTENT/AMPLIFIED TROF
WAS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. THIS TROF WILL CONT E AND WILL BE
MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS AT SUNRISE TOMORROW WITH ITS WAVELENGTH
SHORTENING.
SURFACE: A STATIONARY FRONT BISECTED CNTRL NEB/KS. THIS FRONT
WILL SHOW A GENERAL TENDENCY TO DRIFT E TODAY AND THEN ACCELERATE
S AND E OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR NEAR
PUB TODAY AND WILL LATCH ONTO THE FRONT TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL BE
A PLAYER IN OUR WX THU-FRI.
EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDY MOST AREAS WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE
VISIBILITIES IN PATCHY FOG. THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF 1/4SM
VISIBILITY AT TIMES. THE ONLY AREA THAT HAS HAD SUSTAINED 1/4SM IN
DENSE FOG IS LXN. IF THIS CONTS WE WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WX
STATEMENT /SPS/ BEFORE THE MORNING COMMUTE ENSUES.
SOME SHWRS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM THE SANDHILLS DOWN TO CUSTER
COUNTY. THESE SHWRS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL PORTION OF THE
COMMA CLOUD OVER CNTRL NEB AND COULD SKIRT THRU AREAS ALONG AND N
OF I-80 THRU 9 AM.
TODAY: WHATEVER FOG/STRATUS IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING SHOULD BEGIN
ERODING 9-10 AM AND BE GONE BY 1 PM. HOWEVER...THIS IS BASED JUST ON
PAST EXPERIENCE. THE MODELS DO NOT HANDLE STRATUS WELL. THE EDGES
OF THE STRATUS ARE NEARBY...SO DAYTIME HEATING AND BL MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR EROSION AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION. FOR WHAT IT`S
WORTH...THE 00Z NAM LOW CLOUD FCST INDICATES IMPROVEMENT...BUT THE
LAST AREAS TO IMPROVE WILL BE ALONG THE NEB HWY 81 CORRIDOR. THE
06Z HRRR IS ON BOARD WITH IMPROVEMENT FROM THE W. IT COULD
POTENTIALLY TAKE UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON TO CLEAR OUT THERE.
AS FOR AFTERNOON TSTM POTENTIAL. IT LOOKS DOUBTFUL IN THIS FCSTRS
ESTIMATION. WHILE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROFS DURING PEAK HEATING AND WEAK
LOW-LVL WINDS MEANS A LACK OF BL CONVERGENCE. FURTHERMORE...THERE
IS A LOT OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND CONSENSUS OF MOS
AND MODEL 2M TEMPS IS THAT DWPTS WILL MIX DOWN INTO THE 40S W OF
HWY 281 AND 50S TO THE E. THE EASTWARD DRIFT OF THE FRONT WILL
ALSO SHOVE HIGHER DWPTS E OF THE FCST AREA. THAT WILL CREATE CINH
WHICH SHOULD PUT A CAP ON POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION...
ESPECIALLY WITHOUT SOME HELP ALOFT. COORDINATED WITH SPC AND
PENDING EVALUATION OF MORNING SOUNDINGS...THEY MAY SCALE BACK THE
SLGT RISK AREA. VERY LOW POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM
...BUT COVERAGE JUST LOOKS WAY TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A SLGT.
WHILE THE 15Z AND 21Z SREF INDICATED SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TSTMS...THE 03Z CAME IN DRY IN THE 21Z-00Z TIME FRAME.
IF SOMETHING CAN FORM...SREF MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG IS FCST.
LOW-LVL WINDS WILL BE WEAK...BUT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35 KTS. WILL CONT MENTION IN THE HWO
BUT KNOW THAT THIS IS CONDITIONAL BASED IN "IF" A TSTM OR TWO
FORMS AT ALL.
HIGH TEMPS ARE BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE BASED ON STRATUS AND HOW
LONG IT LINGERS. AREAS ALONG HWY 81 YESTERDAY STAYED IN THE 60S
FOR HIGHS BECAUSE CLOUDS LINGERED LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.
SO BOTTOM LINE FOR TODAY...CLOUDY TO START WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING.
SHOULD BE A NICE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY.
TONIGHT: BECOMING CLOUDY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL
SUPERIMPOSE SUBSTANTIAL QG FORCING/LIFT OVERTOP THE FRONTAL
SURFACE... RESULTING IN DEEP LIFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BURST OF
SHWRS AND TSTMS...ALTHOUGH WANING INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY BRING
THE THREAT OF THUNDER TO AN END FROM NW-SE. FRONTOGENETIC BANDING
POTENTIAL SUGGESTS THIS COULD RESULT IN A SWATH OF HEALTHY
RAINFALL (0.75" TO 1") FOR SOME PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
A COUPLE OF UPPER TROUGHS/COLD FRONTS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
MILD WEATHER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. STARTING ON THURSDAY...AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WHICH DEVELOPS WED NIGHT WILL BE ONGOING
THURSDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES AND
CANNOT RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE BEFORE PCPN ENDS
W/E BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST DURING THE DAY...REACHING IA/EASTERN
KS IN THE AFTN. H85 TEMPS DROP NEARLY 10C FROM WED TO THURS BEHIND
THE FRONT AND HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID
60S.
AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THURSDAY...THE NEXT ONE WILL
BE ON ITS HEELS...DIVING SOUTH FM SASKATCHEWAN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT REACHES OUR NW CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND RAPIDLY SWEEPS
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THREE HOUR PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT
AVERAGE 3 TO 6 MB AND THE NOCTURNAL FROPA WILL BE NOTICEABLE WITH
AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS OVER 30/40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS N/NW NEBRASKA MAY
GENERATE LIGHT PCPN IN VCNTY OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...BUT WITH LLVL
MOISTURE LACKING HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY WITH SILENT POPS BUT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR PERHAPS A SPRINKLE MENTION.
FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO A COOL WINDY DAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES INTO IOWA. THE SFC GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT THRU THE DAY IN
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW/COLD FRONT TO THE EAST AND A 1025MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING ABOVE H85 WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
AVERAGING 40KTS AND IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE WILL LIKELY NEED A
WIND ADVISORY FRIDAY. IN CAA...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL ONLY AVERAGE IN
THE 50S/LOW 60S.
BIGGER CHANGES IN THE FORECAST COME IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD IN
THE COLD AIRMASS...AND WE COULD SEE THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON
IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. THE SFC GRADIENT RELAXES FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW DEPARTS AND THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS DEVELOP THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SFC DPS ARE PROGGED IN THE 20S AND TEMPS SHOULD EASILY DROP INTO
THE 30S FOR LOWS. HAVE WENT WITH TEMPS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
ACROSS OUR W/NW CWA...WITH MID 30S FARTHER SOUTH...AND THIS IS
BASED ON A BLEND AND THERE IS MODEL SUPPORT FOR TEMPS A SEVERAL
DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS FORECAST. WILL INCLUDE THE COLD TEMPS IN
THE HWO IF TRENDS CONTINUE MAY NEED A FREEZE/FROST HEADLINE AS
THINGS GET CLOSER.
AFTER A COLD START TO THE WEEKEND SATURDAY MORNING...TEMPS WILL
TREND UP OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN HEIGHT RISES
BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO
ONTARIO AND ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE BACK SIDE...WE COULD SEE
SOME COOLER AIR BACKING IN FROM THE EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BUT THE AIRMASS CHANGE WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. CONDITIONS ARE STILL
PREDOMINANTLY DRY SUNDAY THRU TUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
THIS MORNING: SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SKIES HAVE CLEARED AT EAR
AND WILL BE SHORTLY AT GRI. WHILE THIS HAS RESULTED IN TEMPORARY
IMPROVEMENT...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SUGGEST
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FOG TO REDEVELOP. SEE THE
LAST FEW OBS AT LXN. CONDS SHOULD DECAY THRU 13Z BUT RAPIDLY
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z GIVEN THE THIN/PATCHY NATURE OF THE FOG.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
AFTER 15Z: VFR. LIGHT NW WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
TONIGHT: VFR WITH CIRROSTRATUS CIGS INVADING AS SHWRS/TSTMS
DEVELOP UPSTREAM. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N BY 00Z AND REMAIN
UNDER 10 KTS. AFTER 06Z...MULTI-LAYERED CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
DESCEND WITH RAIN MOVING IN AFTER 09Z. AT THIS TIME...CIGS/VSBYS
ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND PREFERRED TO LEAVE VFR FOR NOW AND LET
MODEL GUIDANCE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON HOW THIS COULD EVOLVE. N
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS AFTER 06Z.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH THRU 06Z. LOW AFTER 06Z.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
620 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
INTERESTING MESO-BETA SCALE CHANGES ARE MODIFYING THE CONDITIONS
AND NECESSITATING SHORT-TERM CHANGES TO THE FCST. A SERIES OF
GRAVITY WAVES HAVE EMANATED FROM THE SHWR ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPED
OVER CUSTER COUNTY. THIS HAS INITIATED AN ARC OF CLEARING OF THE
STRATUS FROM NW-SE. THE SKY FCST WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED. WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NW BEHIND THESE WAVES...BUT ARE STILL LIGHT
ENOUGH WITH LOW DWPT DEPRESSIONS THAT THIS CLEARING COULD ALLOW
FOG TO REDEVELOP.
SO EXPECT A TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT OF SKY/VSBY...BUT VSBYS COULD
LOWER AGAIN IN FOG.
AN SPS WAS POSTED AT 520 AM FOR PATCHES OF DENSE FOG. IT EXPIRES
AT 630. WE WILL CONT TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR ANOTHER ISSUANCE. AT
THIS TIME...THE ONLY DENSE FOG WAS OVER PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL KS.
UPDATED FCST WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
ALOFT: A SHORTWAVE TROF WAS MOVING THRU EARLY THIS MORNING AND
HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH CLOUDS AND EVEN TSTMS
OVER FILLMORE/THAYER COUNTIES. ANOTHER MORE POTENT/AMPLIFIED TROF
WAS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. THIS TROF WILL CONT E AND WILL BE
MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS AT SUNRISE TOMORROW WITH ITS WAVELENGTH
SHORTENING.
SURFACE: A STATIONARY FRONT BISECTED CNTRL NEB/KS. THIS FRONT
WILL SHOW A GENERAL TENDENCY TO DRIFT E TODAY AND THEN ACCELERATE
S AND E OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR NEAR
PUB TODAY AND WILL LATCH ONTO THE FRONT TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL BE
A PLAYER IN OUR WX THU-FRI.
EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDY MOST AREAS WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE
VISIBILITIES IN PATCHY FOG. THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF 1/4SM
VISIBILITY AT TIMES. THE ONLY AREA THAT HAS HAD SUSTAINED 1/4SM IN
DENSE FOG IS LXN. IF THIS CONTS WE WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WX
STATEMENT /SPS/ BEFORE THE MORNING COMMUTE ENSUES.
SOME SHWRS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM THE SANDHILLS DOWN TO CUSTER
COUNTY. THESE SHWRS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL PORTION OF THE
COMMA CLOUD OVER CNTRL NEB AND COULD SKIRT THRU AREAS ALONG AND N
OF I-80 THRU 9 AM.
TODAY: WHATEVER FOG/STRATUS IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING SHOULD BEGIN
ERODING 9-10 AM AND BE GONE BY 1 PM. HOWEVER...THIS IS BASED JUST ON
PAST EXPERIENCE. THE MODELS DO NOT HANDLE STRATUS WELL. THE EDGES
OF THE STRATUS ARE NEARBY...SO DAYTIME HEATING AND BL MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR EROSION AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION. FOR WHAT IT`S
WORTH...THE 00Z NAM LOW CLOUD FCST INDICATES IMPROVEMENT...BUT THE
LAST AREAS TO IMPROVE WILL BE ALONG THE NEB HWY 81 CORRIDOR. THE
06Z HRRR IS ON BOARD WITH IMPROVEMENT FROM THE W. IT COULD
POTENTIALLY TAKE UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON TO CLEAR OUT THERE.
AS FOR AFTERNOON TSTM POTENTIAL. IT LOOKS DOUBTFUL IN THIS FCSTRS
ESTIMATION. WHILE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROFS DURING PEAK HEATING AND WEAK
LOW-LVL WINDS MEANS A LACK OF BL CONVERGENCE. FURTHERMORE...THERE
IS A LOT OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND CONSENSUS OF MOS
AND MODEL 2M TEMPS IS THAT DWPTS WILL MIX DOWN INTO THE 40S W OF
HWY 281 AND 50S TO THE E. THE EASTWARD DRIFT OF THE FRONT WILL
ALSO SHOVE HIGHER DWPTS E OF THE FCST AREA. THAT WILL CREATE CINH
WHICH SHOULD PUT A CAP ON POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION...
ESPECIALLY WITHOUT SOME HELP ALOFT. COORDINATED WITH SPC AND
PENDING EVALUATION OF MORNING SOUNDINGS...THEY MAY SCALE BACK THE
SLGT RISK AREA. VERY LOW POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM
...BUT COVERAGE JUST LOOKS WAY TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A SLGT.
WHILE THE 15Z AND 21Z SREF INDICATED SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TSTMS...THE 03Z CAME IN DRY IN THE 21Z-00Z TIME FRAME.
IF SOMETHING CAN FORM...SREF MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG IS FCST.
LOW-LVL WINDS WILL BE WEAK...BUT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35 KTS. WILL CONT MENTION IN THE HWO
BUT KNOW THAT THIS IS CONDITIONAL BASED IN "IF" A TSTM OR TWO
FORMS AT ALL.
HIGH TEMPS ARE BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE BASED ON STRATUS AND HOW
LONG IT LINGERS. AREAS ALONG HWY 81 YESTERDAY STAYED IN THE 60S
FOR HIGHS BECAUSE CLOUDS LINGERED LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.
SO BOTTOM LINE FOR TODAY...CLOUDY TO START WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING.
SHOULD BE A NICE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY.
TONIGHT: BECOMING CLOUDY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL
SUPERIMPOSE SUBSTANTIAL QG FORCING/LIFT OVERTOP THE FRONTAL
SURFACE... RESULTING IN DEEP LIFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BURST OF
SHWRS AND TSTMS...ALTHOUGH WANING INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY BRING
THE THREAT OF THUNDER TO AN END FROM NW-SE. FRONTOGENETIC BANDING
POTENTIAL SUGGESTS THIS COULD RESULT IN A SWATH OF HEALTHY
RAINFALL (0.75" TO 1") FOR SOME PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
A COUPLE OF UPPER TROUGHS/COLD FRONTS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
MILD WEATHER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. STARTING ON THURSDAY...AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WHICH DEVELOPS WED NIGHT WILL BE ONGOING
THURSDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES AND
CANNOT RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE BEFORE PCPN ENDS
W/E BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST DURING THE DAY...REACHING IA/EASTERN
KS IN THE AFTN. H85 TEMPS DROP NEARLY 10C FROM WED TO THURS BEHIND
THE FRONT AND HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID
60S.
AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THURSDAY...THE NEXT ONE WILL
BE ON ITS HEELS...DIVING SOUTH FM SASKATCHEWAN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT REACHES OUR NW CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND RAPIDLY SWEEPS
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THREE HOUR PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT
AVERAGE 3 TO 6 MB AND THE NOCTURNAL FROPA WILL BE NOTICEABLE WITH
AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS OVER 30/40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS N/NW NEBRASKA MAY
GENERATE LIGHT PCPN IN VCNTY OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...BUT WITH LLVL
MOISTURE LACKING HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY WITH SILENT POPS BUT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR PERHAPS A SPRINKLE MENTION.
FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO A COOL WINDY DAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES INTO IOWA. THE SFC GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT THRU THE DAY IN
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW/COLD FRONT TO THE EAST AND A 1025MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING ABOVE H85 WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
AVERAGING 40KTS AND IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE WILL LIKELY NEED A
WIND ADVISORY FRIDAY. IN CAA...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL ONLY AVERAGE IN
THE 50S/LOW 60S.
BIGGER CHANGES IN THE FORECAST COME IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD IN
THE COLD AIRMASS...AND WE COULD SEE THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON
IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. THE SFC GRADIENT RELAXES FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW DEPARTS AND THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS DEVELOP THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SFC DPS ARE PROGGED IN THE 20S AND TEMPS SHOULD EASILY DROP INTO
THE 30S FOR LOWS. HAVE WENT WITH TEMPS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
ACROSS OUR W/NW CWA...WITH MID 30S FARTHER SOUTH...AND THIS IS
BASED ON A BLEND AND THERE IS MODEL SUPPORT FOR TEMPS A SEVERAL
DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS FORECAST. WILL INCLUDE THE COLD TEMPS IN
THE HWO IF TRENDS CONTINUE MAY NEED A FREEZE/FROST HEADLINE AS
THINGS GET CLOSER.
AFTER A COLD START TO THE WEEKEND SATURDAY MORNING...TEMPS WILL
TREND UP OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN HEIGHT RISES
BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO
ONTARIO AND ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE BACK SIDE...WE COULD SEE
SOME COOLER AIR BACKING IN FROM THE EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BUT THE AIRMASS CHANGE WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. CONDITIONS ARE STILL
PREDOMINANTLY DRY SUNDAY THRU TUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
REST OF TONIGHT: VLIFR STRATUS SHOULD REMAINED LOCKED IN AROUND
200 FT. VSBYS WILL BE VARIABLE BETWEEN MVFR AND VLIFR IN FOG.
BELIEVE VSBYS WILL DECAY TO 1/2SM BY 10Z AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO
1/4SM. LIGHT SE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS...BUT A WINDSHIFT COULD MOVE IN
SHIFTING WINDS TO SW OR W.
CONFIDENCE: LOW
WED: VLIFR FOG/STRATUS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE BEGINNING 15Z WITH
CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING VFR 17Z-18Z. LIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDSHIFT BOUNDARIES MAKE WIND DIRECTION
UNCERTAIN...BUT SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: LOW...ESPECIALLY WITH TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
WED EVE: VFR WITH MID-HIGH CIGS INVADING FROM THE W AT AND ABOVE
15K FT. A COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY PASS THRU BY 00Z SHIFTING
WINDS TO N LESS THAN 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
700 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATE FRIDAY... AND SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM WEDNESDAY...
FOR TODAY: AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT... THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING... FOSTERED BY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. THUS FAR THE LOWEST VSBYS HAVE BEEN OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW
THIS FOG/STRATUS SPREADING OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS... AND NOT IMPROVING UNTIL THE 14Z-16Z TIME
FRAME... REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE SLOW DISPERSION SEEN YESTERDAY.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH MID MORNING. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE POCKETS OF VERY
LIGHT MIST WITHIN THE MORE DENSE FOG. THE DISSOLUTION OF THE
FOG/STRATUS WILL POST THE NEXT CHALLENGE... GIVEN YESTERDAY`S SLOW
IMPROVEMENT... AND WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE AS WELL AS THE HRRR
TRENDS AND SHOW SLOWLY INCREASING SUNSHINE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH THE SUN BREAKING THROUGH LAST OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER. EXPECT A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS... NOTED ON IR AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY... NOW EXTEND OVER TN INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AND ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE UNDERCUTTING THE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL... THIS EQUATES TO A TREND FROM
DAYBREAK FOG/STRATUS TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THICKNESSES
ARE 5-10 M HIGHER THAN NORMAL... SO EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 OVER PIEDMONT (WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THE LONGEST) TO
THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.
FOR TONIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS... LIKELY LESS WIDESPREAD AND
LESS DENSE THAN THIS MORNING OR YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE FEW
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD... NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
SHOT OF MOISTURE IN THE 925-700 MB LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE MASS
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL RETREATING WARM FRONT. THE
NAM IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH SUCH CLOUDS THAN THE GFS... SO SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT AND COVERAGE REMAINS. BUT IF THESE
CLOUDS COME TO PASS... THEY WOULD MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
WILL REFRAIN FROM INCLUDING FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW... AS IT
COULD SIMPLY BE LIGHT FOG. WILL SHOW A TREND TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NE. MILD LOWS OF 58-62. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...
FOR THU/THU NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL CLIPPER LOW CONTINUES MOVING OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST THU/THU NIGHT... WHILE DEEP AND AMPLIFYING MID
LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTS EAST OVER THE PLAINS.... AND THIS WILL BRING
A MODEST MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER NC. THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEAKLY TO THE SW/SOUTH
INTO NC... ALTHOUGH ITS SOUTHERN END WILL START TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
A BIT TO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO THE ENCROACHING WARM SECTOR AND
SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SW. EXPECT FAIR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRENGTHENS (ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NC). THE MODELS DEVELOP PATCHES OF VERY
LIGHT PRECIP OVER CENTRAL/ERN NC EARLY THU THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...
WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE VA PIEDMONT THU NIGHT.
WITH THE MID LEVELS STILL DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE
ALOFT... ANY MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WOULD BE ROOTED VERY
LOW. AND AT THIS TIME... WE DON`T QUITE SEE THE LIFT AND MOISTURE
NECESSARY FOR ANYTHING BETTER THAN SPRINKLES. THUS... WILL LEAVE
POPS UNDER 15% AND MENTION NOTHING GREATER THAN SPRINKLES.
THICKNESSES INCH UP FURTHER... SUGGESTING HIGHS NEAR 80 TO 84
(COOLER READINGS NORTHEAST). LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S... AND WE
SHOULD SEE AREAS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG THU NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING STORM SYSTEM. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER
MID-WEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEY. A POTENT COLD FRONT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS NORTHWARD TREK INTO CANADA.
THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND THE PRECEDING CONVECTION. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE MODELS SINCE THE LAST FORECAST UPDATE...THUS HAVE KEPT RAINFALL
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS NEARLY THE SAME. EXPECT CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM
NW TO EAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...DECREASING
AGAIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS DESCENT SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINED
WITH THE LATE DIURNAL TIMING...SHOULD MINIMIZE THE SEVERE THREAT.
EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID 50S NW TO MID 60S SE...ALTHOUGH BOTH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE CONVECTION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ONCE THE PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES YIELDING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST SHOULD ALSO BE MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT
MORE UNCERTAINTY AND DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL AGAIN BE DEPENDENT ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT MID 60S NW
TO MID 70S SE WHILE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...MID 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE THE LOWEST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MEANWHILE...LOWS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM WEDNESDAY...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD AT ALL SITE UNTIL MID
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAS
PROMPTED FORMATION OF WIDESPREAD FOG... DENSE IN SPOTS. THIS FOG IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z BEFORE SLOWLY DISPERSING. AFTER
THIS TIME... EXPECT A TREND TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF
SITES THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY... AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
OVER THE REGION. RENEWED MVFR OR IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
STARTING SOON AFTER 06Z EARLY THU MORNING... HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER THAN TODAY... AS THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER CLOUDS COULD CURB
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY
LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z THU MORNING... MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN FOG MAY LAST
UNTIL 13Z OR 14Z THU MORNING. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THU. A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT RWI/FAY THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING... BUT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. PATCHY
FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP EARLY FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING INCREASING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT
AFTERNOON... LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1016 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
.UPDATE...
SURFACE WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH AT EVERY OBSERVATION STATION
THROUGHOUT THE MIDSOUTH AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST. AS OF 10AM... TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY NEAR 80 DEGREES... A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT... I
RAISED HIGHS BY 1 DEGREE AREA WIDE. MORNING RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALREADY OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS
WITHIN AN AIRMASS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TOWARDS OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR AND NAM AGREE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TODAY SO POPS WERE RAISED IN NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY DEVELOPMENT.
JMP3
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/
UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.
CURRENTLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY ALLOWING SFC WINDS TO TURN AROUND
TO THE SOUTH. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER
THE MIDSOUTH. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. CAN/T RULE OUT
A FEW WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS TO OCCUR.
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
MIDSOUTH LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO BEGIN POPPING ACROSS THE
AREA BETWEEN 3-5 PM. MEANWHILE...A SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT WHICH WILL BE LOCATED BACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE LINE WILL BEGIN TO OUTRACE THE FRONT DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS ARE A TAD SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION
THE LINE THAN LAST NIGHTS RUN. EXPECT SQUALL LINE TO MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS BETWEEN 8-10PM. THE LINE WILL ROUGHLY BE
LOCATED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BETWEEN 12-2 AM. THE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE UNSTABLE WITH MODELS INDICATING CAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2200 J/KG. THE NAM IS SHOWING EVEN HIGHER CAPE
VALUES. HOWEVER...THE MODEL DOES NOT SHOW ANY WAA SHOWERS
OCCURRING IN THE MORNING LIKE THE GFS. THERE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS
AROUND THURSDAY MORNING AND IF WAA SHOWERS DO OCCUR LIKE THE GFS
IS INDICATING...THIS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AT LEAST INITIALLY.
BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT AIRMASS TO BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME STRONG STORMS BUT BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL COME FROM THE SQUALL LINE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS. SPC HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK EASTWARD TO
A LINE STRETCHING FROM PARIS...TO BOLIVAR...TO OXFORD. WITH LATEST
MODELS INDICATING A LITTLE SLOWER PROGRESSION WITH SQUALL
LINE...WILL KEEP SLIGHT RISK IN HWO AS IS...COVERING EASTERN ARKANSAS
AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. SQUALL LINE WILL BEGIN WEAKENING FROM
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING DURING THE LATE EVENING TO EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE MORNING ON FRIDAY. BY
AFTERNOON...SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONLY
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXPECT BEAUTIFUL AUTUMN WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDSOUTH. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY AS WELL. MODELS ARE
NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT AT THIS TIME.
KRM
.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PATCHY FOR WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE TONIGHT. MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE.
WINDS 5-10KT LIGHT MAINLY FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. A FEW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH JBR AND POSSIBLY MEM TOWARD THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1054 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT TO INCLUDE A FEW OF THE
LOWER VALLEYS...INCLUDING DURANGO...PAGOSA SPRINGS...THE I-70
CORRIDOR FROM DEBEQUE TO EAGLE AND ACROSS THE EASTERN UINTA BASIN
IN NORTHEAST UTAH. NEW MET GUIDANCE COMING IN A FEW DEGREES COLDER
IN MANY AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE NEED FOR FREEZE WARNINGS
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST AS WELL THIS MORNING...NOW IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL ZONES
WITH A BREAK ARRIVING BEHIND THIS INITIAL WAVE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 743 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND
IN COVERAGE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO
THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. SOME SNOW FALLING ABOVE THE 10K MARK
BASED ON WEBCAMS AND CDOT REPORTS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS NOTED
ON VAIL PASS. AS THE FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 9K...WHICH IS HANDLED
IN CURRENT WINTER HIGHLIGHTS. WILL ALSO EVALUATE THE NEED TO
EXPAND THE FREEZE WATCHES INTO OTHER VALLEY LOCATIONS AS NEW
MODEL DATA ARRIVES LATER THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
NEXT DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE HAS SPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND THE SURFACE FRONT CUTTING ACROSS NE UTAH HAS
ALLOWED PCPN AND STORMS TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE TAVAPUTS AND ROAN
PLATEAU. THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAMDNG25 HAVE
DEPICTED THIS TREND. ADJUSTED GRIDDED PCPN FORECAST TO REFLECT
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT FREQUENT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THIS
AREA. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS NW
COLORADO WITH THE SRN TAIL REACHING THE WRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS MORNING (WITH DRYING TREND ACROSS ERN UTAH). THE RAP
MODEL DOES NOT SHOW MUCH CAPE...BUT THE MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
HAS STEEPEN LAPSE RATES THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE WET BULB ZERO
LINE DROPS BELOW 10K FEET WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SO THE
IDEA THAT THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 9K FEET
SEEMS REASONABLE. MODELS SHOW DECENT QPF VALUES FOR THE NWRN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS...GRAND MESA...ELKS/WEST ELKS AND MONARCH...HENCE
HAVE ELECTED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 9K FEET
FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
THIS EVENING THE NEW COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR THROUGH THE
REGION. THE -21C COLD CORE PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COLORADO ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED IN THE
NEW AIR MASS ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE COLD ADVECTION IS STRONGEST ACROSS NW COLORADO THAT WILL
EFFICIENTLY WRING OUT ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE. LIGHT SNOW MAY
PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ALL BUT THE LOWEST VALLEY ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE
LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL FASTER THAN
THE TEMPERATURES FOR LITTLE THREAT OF FOG...THOUGH SOME RIVER FOG
MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THURSDAY IN A DRY NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND NW GRADIENT WINDS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST KEEPING THE
REGION IN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA AND THE MAIN
WESTERLIES WELL NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF COLORADO. DRY AND STABLE AIR
MASS MEANS DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE WESTERLIES
RETREAT NORTHWARD...A SLOW WARMING TREND ALLOWS TEMPS TO CLIMB
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1053 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY WORKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH AND
COLORADO LATE THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION...BOTH LIQUID AND
FROZEN...IS FOCUSING ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FEATURE. AS A RESULT
IFR TO MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED AND AREA FLIGHT
TERMINALS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT THE
KASE AND KEGE TERMINALS THROUGH 20Z. AFTER 20Z VFR SHOULD BE
PREVAILING AT THE FLIGHT TERMINALS WITH TEMPORARY LOWERED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE EVENING BEFORE THE BULK OF THIS SYSTEM
MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS LIKELY OVER THE
HIGHER DIVIDE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
COZ001-002-005-007-008-014-022-023.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ004-
009-010-012-013-018.
UT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
UTZ024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ023.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
155 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014
CURRENT-TONIGHT...WEST TO EAST FLOW ABOVE 3000 TO 4000 FEET PUSHING
INCREASING STRATOCUMULUS...STRATUS AND RAIN TOWARD THE EAST COAST.
THE MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM TAMPA AND CAPE CANAVERAL SHOWING AN
INVERSION AROUND 16000 FEET AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS ABOVE THAT
LEVEL. EXPECT LOW TOPPED STORMS IF ANY DO DEVELOP AND WITH 500MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE -4 TO -5 CELSIUS RANGE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES 1.08 TO 2 INCHES EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS. THE LATEST RUC RUN AND THE 12Z GFS RUN WERE
INDICATING THAT THE MID LEVEL FLOW WAS FLATTENING AND BECOMING
PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. WITH THE LACK OF ANY REAL
SOUTHWARD PUSH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD ONLY MOVE A LITTLE NORTH
OR SOUTH OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY TOWARD SUNRISE. LOWS IN THE LOW AND MID 70S.
THU-FRI...GFS SUGGESTING THAT THE BOUNDARY FINALLY CLEARS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA THU AND REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRI. GFS
TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTION PROG IS SHOWING THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE
DECREASES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND BEST MOISTURE REMAINS 5000
FEET AND BELOW WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW. MAV MOS POP LOOK TOO LOW. THE
MET MOS POP A LITTLE MORE REALISTIC.
PREVIOUS ZONES EXTENDED DISCUSSION
WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FIRST COOL FRONT OF THE
SEASON WILL PUSH THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND BRING A NOTICEABLE AIR
MASS CHANGE. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT ESPECIALLY FROM ORLANDO SOUTHWARD SAT AFTN. THE FAST MOVING
STORMS SHOULD NOT PRODUCE MUCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATION BUT COULD
CONTAIN STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. N/NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING LOWER HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTH LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES...60S ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY LOOKS QUITE REFRESHING WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S
WITH NORTH WINDS 10 MPH...A LITTLE STRONGER ALONG THE COAST.
MON-TUE...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE FL STRAITS AND
NW BAHAMAS. DO NOT HAVE ANY MENTIONABLE POPS EITHER DAY BUT SOME
REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE MAY RETURN NORTHWARD BY TUE AND BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING MVFR IN/NEAR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 02/03Z THEN VFR TIL 08Z. MVFR TEMPO IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INTER IR 08Z-13Z...VFR TO 18Z.
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
WILL MONITOR TAF SITES...ESP NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
FOR EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS...WHICH WILL BURN OFF
THRU MID/LATE MORNING...SHOULD ANY DEVELOP. LIGHT EARLY MORNING
WINDS WILL BECOME AN ONSHORE COMPONENT IN THE AFTERNOON. DEEP
MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ESP SOUTHWARD FROM NEAR
KSFB/KMCO...SO SCT-NMRS AFTN SHRA WITH ISOLD-SCT TSRA AGAIN
POSSIBLE. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SOUTH OF KMCO TODAY
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER PCPN CHANCES WILL RESIDE.
LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS STILL MAIN AVIATION THREATS.
BRIEF IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN/AROUND CONVECTION. CELL DIRECTION
WILL BE MAINLY FROM WEST TO EAST. ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN WIND DOWN
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
CURRENT-TONIGHT....BUOYS RECORDING WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND 1 TO 3
FOOT SEAS. STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO AROUND THE DAYTONA AREA THEN DROPS
DOWN TO AROUND MELBOURNE THEN EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A COOL
FRONT. DEPENDING ON WHICH SIDE OF THE FRONT ONE IS LOCATED WINDS
EITHER BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ON THE NORTH SIDE OR THE WEST IF
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. VARIABLE 5 TO 10 KNOTS A GOOD CALL FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST TO EAST STEERING FLOW WILL
PUSH SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE MAINLAND AND ONTO THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THU-FRI...MUCH DEPENDS ON WHETHER THE BOUNDARY DOES CLEAR EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST DOES TAKE PLACE. SEAS REMAIN 3 FEET OR BELOW AND WINDS 10
TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS DEPENDING WHERE THE BOUNDARY RESTS.
WEEKEND...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS SAT
WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHING EAST AND OFFSHORE DURING
THE AFTN...SOME OF WHICH SHOULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE AROUND 15 KNOTS SAT AFTN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND OVERSPREAD ALL THE WATERS SAT NIGHT
AND CONTINUE SUNDAY. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE.
BOATING CONDITIONS LOOK UNFAVORABLE ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM
WHERE CAUTION HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SHINGLE CREEK BASIN ON MON CAUSED THE CREEK
AT CAMPBELL TO RISE TO ACTION STAGE LAST EVENING. LATEST GAUGE
INFORMATION SUGGESTS THE CREEK HAS LEVELED OFF ABOVE ACTION STAGE.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
BASIN COULD RESULT IN FURTHER RISES LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR REMAINS SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND MINOR FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. RIVER LEVELS ALSO RISING NEAR DELAND AND LAKE HARNEY AND
THESE SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH ACTION STAGE LATER THIS WEEK.
IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL SETS UP OVER OR UPSTREAM FROM THESE
AREAS...THERE WILL BE FURTHER AGGRAVATION OVER THE BASIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 72 88 72 89 / 30 30 20 40
MCO 72 91 72 91 / 20 40 10 40
MLB 73 87 72 89 / 30 30 20 40
VRB 71 89 71 90 / 30 40 20 40
LEE 72 90 72 91 / 20 40 10 40
SFB 72 90 72 91 / 20 30 10 40
ORL 74 90 73 90 / 20 40 10 40
FPR 71 88 70 89 / 30 40 20 40
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
IMPACT WX...LASCODY
HYDRO.......GLITTO
FORECASTS...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
458 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
250 PM CDT
STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW...AND AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE FOR THE
WEEKEND.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THIS AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL IOWA INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND IS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY OFF TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THE PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AS 30
KT LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS TRANSPORT 1.5-1.6 INCH PWATS INTO THE REGION
ALONG WITH SOME MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER BUT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH CLOSER TO THE FRONT WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS A
LITTLE STRONGER. MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION SHIFTS OFF TO OUR EAST
BY THE EARLY MORNING/PREDAWN HOURS THURSDAY AND SHOULD RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR A FEW HOURS THEREAFTER...THOUGH EARLY
MORNING PRECIP WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE SEVERE THREAT TOMORROW AND
OUR ABILITY TO DESTABILIZE.
THURSDAY...
RELATIVELY UNORGANIZED SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT FROM OKLAHOMA
EARLY MORNING DEEPENING A FEW MILLIBARS BY LATE EVENING AS ITS
BECOMES A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER FAR EASTERN IOWA INTO
WISCONSIN AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THURSDAY EVENING. A WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO
LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH MID/UPPER
60 DEWPOINTS OVERSPREADING THE REGION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
UNIMPRESSIVE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW RESULTING IN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY DESPITE THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE...HOWEVER A VERY DYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO A 100-110KT
UPPER JET DEVELOPS OVERHEAD AND STRONG MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE COMPACT LEAD SHORTWAVE.
STRONG SYNOPTIC ASCENT SHOULD BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE SHORTCOMINGS
OF THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...AND STRONG SHEAR...ESPECIALLY IN
THE LOW LEVELS...COULD ALLOW FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS PARTICULARLY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE THERE IS A LOW BUT NON-ZERO
LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT. NAM GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT
OVERDONE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT IS A SLIGHTLY DEEPER
OUTLIER BUT DOES SHOW NICELY BACKED SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE WARM
FRONT RESULTING IN CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND AROUND 20KT 0-1KM SHEAR AND
45-50KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HIGH-SHEAR LOW-INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENTS
ARE OFTEN TRICKY TO PIN DOWN AND EVOLUTION OF TONIGHTS CONVECTION
ADDS AN ADDITIONAL DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST TOMORROW
MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...
HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM WILL DEFINITELY BEAR WATCHING ESPECIALLY IF THE
LOW DEEPENS AS QUICKLY AS SOME MODELS INDICATE. THURSDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO BECOME LINEAR OUT AHEAD. CONTINUED STRONG KINEMATICS
WILL RESULT IN AN ONGOING SEVERE THREAT WITH SEVERE WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY CONCERN.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. STRONG PV ANOMALY WILL DIG
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST RESULTING IN RAPID DEEPENING
OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
ENHANCING THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW. H85 TEMPS ARE PROGGED
FALL THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH THE 0C ISOTHERM PUSHING ACROSS THE
AREA AND TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT -3C TO -4C SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE MAIN AXIS OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...
THEN BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING MID LEVELS SHOULD
CAP COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS GROWTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH CHANCES
FOR PRECIP MUCH LOWER...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SPRINKLES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORY THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...DROPPING WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO HIT THE 60 MARK IN MOST AREAS...AND ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOWER 50S SATURDAY UNDER THE THERMAL TROUGH. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OUTSIDE OF THE
THERMAL HEAT ISLAND OF CHICAGO WHERE TEMPS MAY STAY PROPPED UP IN
THE LOW 40S. FROST IN OUTLYING AREAS IS A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AND THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING TO
HELP RADIATE BETTER.
NEXT WEEK...
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY THROUGH
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE LOCAL AREA REMAINING IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THERE WILL BE PERIODIC LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP AS WAVES
TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION THOUGH TIMING THESE IS DIFFICULT THIS
FAR OUT SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DETAILS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASING
BY MIDWEEK AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL
VALUES.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 12 KT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS BY LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
* CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEYOND
THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOWER VIS
LIKELY.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE THE TIMING OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS IS RESULTING IN A
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP AROUND 15 KT POSSIBLE.
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY
CONSOLIDATE AND SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE MID AND PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS WILL
LIFT A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS AND VISBYS...ESPECIALLY
BY THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE THREAT FOR
THUNDER WITH THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE LOW...BUT NOT
ZERO. MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THURSDAY...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
BEYOND THE CURRENT 30 HOUR TAF PERIOD...INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL THE CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TERMINALS LATER
THURSDAY IS MODERATE TO HIGH...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TIMING
IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS TIME.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* MODERATE TO HIGH WITH THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT LOW TO MODERATE ON EXACT TIMING.
* LOW TO MODERATE WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER END MVFR CIGS BY EARLY
THURSDAY.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF TSRA. MVFR LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA LATE.
MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
226 PM CDT
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS GOING TO COME TO AN END TONIGHT...AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONGER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS HAVE
REMAINED SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT BUMP IN THE
GRADIENT CREATING OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT. WITH THE CONTINUED
SOUTHEAST FLOW...WAVES HAVE REMAINED ELEVATED IN THE ILLINOIS
NEARSHORE WATERS TO AROUND 2 TO 4 FT WHILE ALONG THE INDIANA
NEARSHORE WAVES ARE GENERALLY 1 TO 3 FT. AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AND A TIGHTENING GRADIENT IS
POISED TO INCREASE WINDS THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE THRU THUR. AS THE LOW
ARRIVES OVER NORTHERN IL THUR EVENING...IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF
GALES MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. AS
THIS LOW MOVES TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO WHILE STRENGTHENING...WITH
WINDS TO 30 KT LIKELY. A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHERN END
OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS WELL AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING OVER
THE LAKE WILL SUPPORT WINDS TO 30 KT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
WELL AS EVEN A PERIOD OF GALES POSSIBLE. THEN EXPECT A SLOW
DOWNWARD TREND IN SPEEDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
259 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
Scattered showers and thunderstorms in west central IL will become
more numerous overnight as several ingredients come together. At the
surface a warm front extended from NW Missouri into south central
Illinois. This boundary, along with a shortwave trough lifting to
the northeast and plenty of upper level divergence will keep the
showers and isolated thunderstorms going from west central into
central Illinois this evening. Relatively drier air in eastern IL
will initially keep the eastward extent of the precipitation limited
to west of I-55 much of this evening.
The warm front will slowly continue to lift to the northeast
tonight, remaining the focus for additional convection to develop.
An increasing low level jet intersecting the front and higher low
level moisture levels in much of the forecast area will result in
widespread showers and thunderstorms in central IL toward midnight,
and eastern IL toward daybreak. Rainfall totals around 0.50-1.00
inch are possible overnight, with the highest amounts anticipated
along and west of the IL river valley.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
Models are very consistent with the cold front refiring tomorrow
afternoon west of the area and then storms moving into the area late
tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow evening. Should be sufficient
moisture tomorrow ahead of the front to produce instabilities around
1500 J/kg. Models also forecasting strong low level winds and decent
wind shear. So storms are expected to become severe in the CWA,
mainly during evening hours. Agree with SPC with the slight risk
across the area tomorrow with the threat of large hail in the west
and damaging winds throughout the CWA after the storms become more
linear. In addition to the threat of severe weather, heavy rainfall
is also possible through tomorrow night west of I-55 where 1.75 to
over 2 inches is possible and just over 1.25 is possible in the
southeast parts of the CWA. Once the front moves through the area
cooler air will move into the area. However, the area will remain
controlled by an upper level trough. This will bring several chances
of scattered showers Friday and Friday night. The upper level trough
will remain over the area, but dry weather is expected for the first
part of the weekend.
The upper level trough will still be in control of some of the area
for the later part of the weekend and into the beginning of next
week. This will bring another shot of scattered showers to the area
for Sun through Mon night. However, the chances will be low enough
so that pops will just be slight chances; which means it will be in
the grids, but not in the worded forecast. A warm frontal system
will push into the area the beginning of next week, so will have
higher chances of pcpn for Mon night in the southeast only. As the
upper level flow becomes more zonal for middle of next week, dry
weather will return.
Temps will be warm one more day, tomorrow, and then cooler, below
normal temps are expected over the weekend and through most of next
week. By middle of the week, temps begin a slow trend of warming.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
Increasing clouds and potential for showers and thunderstorms can
be expected in parts of central Illinois this afternoon, and
across all of central and eastern IL tonight.
Satellite and radar indicated that convection from NE Missouri and
SE Iowa continues to advance east-northeast, but weaken gradually.
Scattered showers can be expected along the IL river valley early
this afternoon, and toward the I-55 corridor just before dusk.
This activity will continue to weaken as it encounters dry air in
the mid-lower levels.
A slow moving warm front, which extended from western IA into
southeast MO around midday will slowly advance through central IL
tonight. The NAM, SREF, HRRR and RAP models are all in fairly good
agreement that an increasing southwesterly low level jet will
intersect this boundary and result in widespread showers and
elevated thunderstorms between 06-10z in west central IL, and
09-15z in eastern IL. This will result in MVFR visibility, but
have decided to hold off on MVFR ceilings for now until confidence
is greater in low level moisture fields.
Am expecting a break in the convection during much of the post
dawn hours in west central IL and by late morning in eastern IL as
the warm front continues to lift northeast and put the region in
the warm sector. Could see the beginnings of the next round of
scattered convection, ahead of a cold front, in western IL late
Thursday morning, but the best chances will be later Thursday
afternoon.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Miller
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
234 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
328 AM CDT
A RANGE OF FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH FAIRLY
MILD CONDITIONS TO START WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN/THUNDER USHERING IN
TEMPERATURES MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. EARLY MORNING
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY SPINNING OVER
PENNSYLVANIA WITH A NARROW RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
OF GREATER NOTE IS A BROAD LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. ONE CLOSED UPPER LOW IS SPINNING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH A WEAKER
WAVE MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ANOTHER WAVE IS
DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WILL BE A KEY PLAYER IN OUR
WEATHER GOING INTO THURSDAY/FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IS SPREAD FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOCAL AREA WITH A
STRONG LOW MOVING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
TODAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST TODAY RESULTING IN A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND. WINDS LOOK TO BE
LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE LAKE TO TURN WINDS MORE EASTERLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SO WHILE HIGHS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL
WARM INTO THE 70S...WARMEST WEST AND SOUTH...LAKESHORE AREAS OF NE
IL WILL LIKELY BE HELD INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. NW INDIANA LAKEFRONT
AREAS MAY BE SPARED THE EXTRA COOLING UNLESS WINDS ARE ABLE TO TURN
NORTHEAST. STRATUS MAY BE LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH MID MORNING BUT SHOULD LIFT TO THE NORTH BY LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LOOK TO THICKEN ACROSS NORTHWEST
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...THINGS START TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE TONIGHT AS THE
NORTHERNMOST UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND A SERIES OF
WEAKER WAVES CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
MOVE NORTHEAST AND ACT ON THE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL PUSH BANDS OF SHOWERS
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE FORCING IS NOT TERRIBLY
COHERENT AS IT SPREADS IN EARLY THIS EVENING SO WILL KEEP POPS
LOW...BUT FORCING FOCUSES OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN BEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH LESS COVERAGE
EAST. ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED BUT STILL PRESENT
OVERNIGHT SO WILL INCLUDE THUNDER MENTION MAINLY OVERNIGHT. OVERALL
ACTIVITY LOOKS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BE THE MAIN PERIOD FOR
RAIN/THUNDER AS THE UPPER WAVE NOW MOVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
HELPS AMPLIFY THE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN AS IT REACHES THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS AND CROSSES THE AREA
DURING THE DAY WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THURSDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF
WAVES WILL NEED TO BE REFINED BUT RIGHT NOW THE MAIN PERIOD FOR
ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY MAY SPREAD INTO THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF THE LOW LOOKS TO BE FILLED WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
PRECIP. FOCUSED FORCING LOOKS TO BE HELD BACK ACROSS
MISSOURI/OKLAHOMA/KANSAS DURING THE DAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
KICKING THE SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS NW MISSOURI LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A LINE OF STORMS TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EVENING. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW FAR
WEST OF THE AREA THE LOW TRACKS WITH A FURTHER WEST TRACK...AS SOME
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING...LEADING TO A BETTER SEVERE THREAT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA THANKS TO A MORE ROBUST WARM SECTOR AND GREATER
INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO HELP MAINTAIN AN INCOMING SQUALL LINE
DURING THE EVENING. STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN
SEVERE THREAT. HEAVY RAINFALL IS A CONCERN AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES PUSH 1.6 OR 1.7 INCHES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH LOOK LIKELY WITH THE EXTENT OF STRONGER
CONVECTION DICTATING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED 2+ INCHES. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WOULD BE THAT THE WAVES OF PRECIP LOOK TO BE MOVING STEADILY.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF PRECIP
WAVES AND CLOUD COVER BUT WITH THE AREA GETTING INTO THE WARM SECTOR
AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP LOOKING TO BE LOWEST DURING THE DAY HIGHS MAY
WARM WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST WITH
GUIDANCE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE IT WILL BE BY 12Z FRIDAY.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN CWA IF NOT HAVING ALREADY
DONE SO BY FRIDAY MORNING SO SOME LINGERING CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE
EAST. A REINFORCING UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE IN FROM CANADA AND CLOSE
OFF BEFORE DROPPING RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL SPREAD IN AS ALL OF THIS OCCURS WITH H85
TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR 0C BY EVENING WITH A GUSTY WEST WIND. IN
ADDITION WITH THE UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA SHOWERS ARE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. BETWEEN THE COLD
ADVECTION AND INCREASING SHOWER POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPS WILL PROBABLY
OCCUR EARLY THEN FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS EXPECT LOW TO MID
50S IF NOT COOLER BY EVENING FOR ALL AREAS...WITH LOWS FALLING TO
AROUND 40 AWAY FROM THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS AND CLOUD
KEEPING MAX COOLING FROM OCCURRING. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE
EAST SATURDAY MORNING BUT EXPECT A DRY DAY BEYOND THAT WITH A SUN
AND CLOUD MIX. HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
WITH BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION THANKS
TO WHAT WILL HAVE EVOLVED INTO A MASSIVE BROAD UPPER LOW OVER
ONTARIO...THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR SHORTWAVES TO PASS ALONG WITH
BOUTS OF CLOUD COVER. AS A RESULT MAX COOLING MAY BE TEMPERED ONCE
AGAIN BUT STILL EXPECT UPPER 30S FOR MOST AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT
BRINGING AT LEAST PATCHY FROST POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE BIG UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE
INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY AS IT WILL BE REINFORCED A FEW TIMES BY WAVES
PUSHING INTO FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL BRING A FEW ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH SOME CONSISTENCY IN A WAVE PASSING LATER
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. EACH WAVE WILL BRING A BRIEF PUSH OF WARM
ADVECTION BUT ANY NOTABLE WARMING DOES NOT LOOK TO OCCUR UNTIL MID
WEEK WHEN UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND THE
EASTERN TROUGH STARTS TO DE-AMPLIFY. SHOULD SEE SOME TEMP MODERATION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT AM WONDERING IF FORECAST HIGHS ARE A LITTLE
WARM...ESPECIALLY IF WE END UP WITH CLOUD COVER EITHER DAY. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT BEST RAIN CHANCES BUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
LOOKS BEST RIGHT NOW.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THE DAY.
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS BY LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
* CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE MID
AND LATE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOWER VIS LIKELY.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE THE TIMING OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS IS RESULTING IN A
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP AROUND 15 KT POSSIBLE.
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY
CONSOLIDATE AND SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE MID AND PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS WILL
LIFT A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS AND VISBYS...ESPECIALLY
BY THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE THREAT FOR
THUNDER WITH THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE LOW...BUT NOT
ZERO. MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THURSDAY...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
BEYOND THE CURRENT 30 HOUR TAF PERIOD...INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL THE CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TERMINALS LATER
THURSDAY IS MODERATE TO HIGH...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TIMING
IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS TIME.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* LOW WITH THUNDER POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
* MODERATE TO HIGH WITH THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT LOW TO MODERATE ON EXACT TIMING.
* LOW TO MODERATE WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER END MVFR CIGS BY EARLY
THURSDAY.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF TSRA. MVFR LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA LATE.
MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
226 PM CDT
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS GOING TO COME TO AN END TONIGHT...AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONGER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS HAVE
REMAINED SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT BUMP IN THE
GRADIENT CREATING OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT. WITH THE CONTINUED
SOUTHEAST FLOW...WAVES HAVE REMAINED ELEVATED IN THE ILLINOIS
NEARSHORE WATERS TO AROUND 2 TO 4 FT WHILE ALONG THE INDIANA
NEARSHORE WAVES ARE GENERALLY 1 TO 3 FT. AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AND A TIGHTENING GRADIENT IS
POISED TO INCREASE WINDS THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE THRU THUR. AS THE LOW
ARRIVES OVER NORTHERN IL THUR EVENING...IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF
GALES MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. AS
THIS LOW MOVES TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO WHILE STRENGTHENING...WITH
WINDS TO 30 KT LIKELY. A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHERN END
OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS WELL AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING OVER
THE LAKE WILL SUPPORT WINDS TO 30 KT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
WELL AS EVEN A PERIOD OF GALES POSSIBLE. THEN EXPECT A SLOW
DOWNWARD TREND IN SPEEDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1250 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
Updated the forecast to reflect the current trends for the showers
and thunderstorms approaching extreme western IL. Also tweaked the
sky cover and temperature forecast with convective debris clouds
advancing into parts of central IL this afternoon.
The latest surface analysis indicated a slow moving warm front
from western Iowa to extreme southeast Missouri. A southwesterly
low level jet was intersecting the front in central MO, keeping
convection developing on the southern end. The convection should
weaken as it moves eastward into the relatively drier air in west
central IL early this afternon. However, isolated showers and a few
rumbles of thunder can not be ruled out, particularly west of the
IL River valley early this afternoon and just west of the I-55
corridor toward sunset.
The HRRR, RAP and NAM models all indicate that as the warm front
slowly shifts northeast toward central IL tonight, an increasing
low level jet will once again produce several rounds of showers
and t-storms. Confidence is high in these scenarios for elevated
convection, so have bumped up PoPs in the entire forecast area
overnight and into Thursday, especially in west central and
central IL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
The upper-level ridge of high pressure that has brought much above
normal temperatures to the Midwest over the past several days will
slowly lose its influence today as a long-wave trough over the
western half of the CONUS begins to translate eastward. 07z/2am
water vapor imagery shows a series of short-waves embedded within
the parent trough, with a lead wave currently ejecting into
western Kansas/Nebraska and another wave further upstream over the
Great Basin. The first wave will lift N/NE today, remaining well
west of Illinois. As a result, convection associated with this
feature across eastern Kansas into central/western Iowa will track
mainly northward into Minnesota/Wisconsin as the day progresses.
Some models are suggesting that precip may reach the far western
KILX CWA by late afternoon: however, given dry airmass initially
in place and a continued easterly component to the wind, think
this is a bit too aggressive. Will therefore go with a dry
forecast across the board today. Skies will start out mostly
sunny, with a gradual increase in cloud cover during the afternoon
west of I-55. Thanks to the sunshine and winds veering to the
southeast, high temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower
80s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
Initial short-wave will pass to the W/NW of Illinois this evening,
while Great Basin feature ejects into the Plains and induces surface
cyclogenesis over the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles. As this low begins
to lift N/NE and airmass moistens, showers and thunderstorms will
develop across west-central Illinois during the evening then spread
eastward toward the Indiana border by Thursday morning. With best
forcing associated with the second wave remaining to the southwest
and forecast soundings still showing a dry layer below 850mb, have
opted to reduce PoPs to just chance along/west of I-55 this
evening. Think better rain chances will arrive mainly across the
western CWA after midnight, with areas further east near the Indiana
border likely staying dry through the entire night.
Low pressure over Oklahoma Thursday morning will track northeastward
into Wisconsin by Thursday night. As it does, it will drag a strong
cold front through central Illinois. Models have been trending
slightly slower with the front, with most solutions now showing
FROPA overnight Thursday. With strongest forcing for convection
staying to the west near the low and associated front, have focused
highest PoPs in the likely category across the western half of the
CWA on Thursday with only chance PoPs along/east of I-57. Will be
another warm day with highs ranging from the middle 70s far
northwest around Galesburg to the middle 80s along/south of I-70.
Main convective event still appears to be on track for Thursday
night as front interacts with an unseasonably moist airmass
characterized by precipitable water values in excess of 1.50. Given
ample deep-layer moisture and strong upper dynamics, will carry
categorical PoPs across the board. Latest Convective Outlook from
SPC suggests the potential for strong to severe storms Thursday
evening as a squall line develops along/ahead of the front.
Front will sweep into Indiana by Friday morning, with a few
lingering showers possible across the Wabash River Valley early in
the day. Main story on Friday will be the windy and much cooler
conditions. Due to a tightening pressure gradient and adequate
mixing, W/NW winds may gust to around 30mph at times. High
temperatures will mainly be in the 60s. An upper wave digging
southward out of Canada may trigger scattered showers across the
region Friday afternoon/night. Timing discrepancies still exist
among the models, so will only mention slight chance for showers
Friday night at this time. Once this feature passes, very cool and
dry conditions are anticipated this weekend. Coolest day will be
Saturday when highs will remain in the 50s and overnight lows will
dip into the upper 30s. After that, northwesterly flow will
prevail through the middle of next week, resulting in a
continuation of below normal temps. Airmass modification will
allow temps to slowly climb back into the upper 60s by Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
Increasing clouds and potential for showers and thunderstorms can
be expected in parts of central Illinois this afternoon, and
across all of central and eastern IL tonight.
Satellite and radar indicated that convection from NE Missouri and
SE Iowa continues to advance east-northeast, but weaken gradually.
Scattered showers can be expected along the IL river valley early
this afternoon, and toward the I-55 corridor just before dusk.
This activity will continue to weaken as it encounters dry air in
the mid-lower levels.
A slow moving warm front, which extended from western IA into
southeast MO around midday will slowly advance through central IL
tonight. The NAM, SREF, HRRR and RAP models are all in fairly good
agreement that an increasing southwesterly low level jet will
intersect this boundary and result in widespread showers and
elevated thunderstorms between 06-10z in west central IL, and
09-15z in eastern IL. This will result in MVFR visibility, but
have decided to hold off on MVFR ceilings for now until confidence
is greater in low level moisture fields.
Am expecting a break in the convection during much of the post
dawn hours in west central IL and by late morning in eastern IL as
the warm front continues to lift northeast and put the region in
the warm sector. Could see the beginnings of the next round of
scattered convection, ahead of a cold front, in western IL late
Thursday morning, but the best chances will be later Thursday
afternoon.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Miller
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Miller
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
329 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
Spring like conditions driving an early October forecast today as
severe storms have developed over southeastern Kansas and west
central Missouri. Earlier clouds and showers over eastern Kansas
gave way to clearing early and then afternoon cumulus clouds as
daytime heating ensued. Diffuse boundary / surface trof still
appears to extend from near Newton Kansas northeast through Council
Grove and into Wabaunsee county. Morning and afternoon soundings
continue to show an unstable atmosphere, but low level winds in the
surface trof have weakened through the day. Dewpoints near 70
continue to move northward into the counties south of the
interstate.
Conditional severe threat remains for east central Kansas. Lack of a
strong forcing mechanism over our area makes forecast more
difficult. However storms to the south have mid level energy moving
into SE Kansas and NE Oklahoma, and hodographs going straight in the
mid levels favor splits, with left movers approaching our south CWA
edge at this time. Primary threat from these storms will be large
hail and winds, although with outflow boundaries moving out of the
southern and eastern storms, will need to watch for tornado threat
as well. Worth mentioning these storms are producing considerable
lightning and locally heavy rainfall. That said, the better
conditions come together primarily for the counties along and SE of
the turnpike where the watch is now in place. As the low level jet
increases later this evening, may see additional strengthening if
storms develop in south central Kansas and move into our southeast
as the latest HRRR would suggest.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
Main upper trough axis ejects eastward into the central plains on
Thursday. The sfc low is progged to deepen through the day as it
phases with the upper wave. Showers and thunderstorms from the
overnight period will have made its way into north central KS by
Thurs. morning. A decent 30 to 40 kt h85 jet may also support
additional convection forming over east central KS. Through the day
on Thursday, the main frontal boundary continues to trend more
progressive in pushing east of the CWA by 00Z Friday. Dependent on
mesoscale factors such as if and when morning convection in the east
can clear out and where the boundary sets up by peak heating may
form a few strong to severe storms in the late afternoon. Far
eastern KS should see the best chances for severe weather with
mainly high wind and large hail the primary hazards. Localized
flooding may also pose a hazard for the entire area with an average
of 0.5 to 2.5 inches of rainfall in the past 24 hours. Convection
clears east Thursday evening as a stronger upper wave plunges
southeast into the Great Lakes region. Strengthening mid and low
level wind field pickup sfc speeds from the northwest between 20 and
25 mph sustained on Friday. Consensus operational guidance is
hinting on a weak wave traversing through the mean flow across
northeast Kansas on Friday. While model soundings do not show ample
low level moisture, included a low end chance for showers. The main
story through the weekend will be strong subsidence and cold air
advection as highs fall Friday from the 70s to the 60s for Saturday.
May need frost headlines for Saturday AM as trends with h85 temps
continue to fall near 0C. Have lowered low temps down into the
middle and lower 30s area wide.
Extended period remains quiet and dry as northwest flow and blocking
ridge holds over the western CONUS. Airmass modulates back with
highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Another digging trough over
the Great Lakes region may push weak embedded waves southward into
the region on Wednesday where slight chances for precip were
mentioned.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
Kept similar as previous forecast with best chances for
thunderstorms actually occurring at a TAF site in the early
morning hours. In the meantime there should be storms near taf
sites late afternoon, and will then be followed by more widespread
showers and storms moving across eastern Kansas in the morning,
when prevailing mvfr rain/cigs more likely to move in.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...67
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
151 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED STRONG TROUGH
MOVING INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. AT THE SFC...FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH FRONT DRAPED FROM KLBL TO
KMCI.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL CENTER AROUND
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS
IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WHILE SEEING CURRENT DRY AIR IN THE AREA
DOES CAUSE SOME CONCERN ON PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BULK OF NEAR TERM
MODELS ALL INDICATE A TAP OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING NEAR SFC FRONT
AND INTERACTING WITH ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE THIS EVENING. MIXING
RATIOS IN THIS PLUME ARE HIGH AND WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
EXPECT A DECENT RESPONSE TO PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS.
SOMEWHAT SURPRISED BY CONSISTENCY OF QPF OUTPUT FROM AVAILABLE
DATA SOURCES AND AM COMFORTABLE INCREASING GENERAL AMOUNTS TO 0.25
TO 0.75 AT MOST LOCATIONS. CHOSE NOT TO GO ON THE HIGH END OF
PRECIPITATION THOUGH...DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS OVER
MOISTURE QUALITY. FORCING WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNRISE AS DEEP
CAA TAKES OVER. SURPRISINGLY...SOME LOW TOPPED INSTABILITY DOES
EXIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SO A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS APPEAR
WARRANTED.
OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE WINDS BEHIND STRONG COLD
FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. 12Z NAM AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE THE RAP INDICATE STRONG 3 HR PRESSURE RISES IN EXCESS OF
6MB AS FRONT PASSES. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT. PLAYED UP WINDS A
BIT IN THE FORECAST...BUT UNTIL STRONG PRESSURE RISES/GUSTS BECOME
MORE APPARENT IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA PLAN ON HOLDING OFF ON ANY
HIGHLIGHTS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...
A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
ALONG WITH FRONT END OF H3 JET ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING I DECIDED TO
KEEP 20 POPS ACROSS NW PART OF CWA THURSDAY NIGHT DESPITE LIMITED
MOISTURE PROFILES. STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY OR ADVISORY WINDS (45 MPH)
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVERNIGHT. NAM IN PARTICULAR SHOWS
6HR PRESSURE RISES IN EXCESS OF 10MB WHICH IS CONCERNING AND COULD
INDICATE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF WARNING CRITERIA WINDS. IF THERE IS
VIRGA OR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MAY ALSO HELP MIX STRONGER WINDS TO
THE SURFACE. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON HEADLIGHTS...BUT THIS NEEDS
TO BE MONITORED.
GRADIENT RELAXES FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL JET AND
TROUGH AXIS MOVE EAST...HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL STRONG WINDS ALOFT
OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. PROFILES WOULD LIMIT
MIXING TO BELOW WHERE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE FRIDAY DESPITE
SUNNY CONDITIONS...SO ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SEEM UNLIKELY DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. SHOULD STILL BE WINDY...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
VERY COOL AIR MASS SETTLES INTO REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IF
IT WASNT FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AIR
MASS WOULD HAVE SUPPORTED A HARD FREEZE (LOOKS LIKE WELL LUCK OUT).
CLEAR SKIES...LOW TD...AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE
MODERATING AS A RIDGE OVER THE SW US BEGINS TO BUILD EAST. MOST OF
THE CWA SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING...THOUGH PATCHY FROST WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHERE OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 33-35F RANGE ARE EXPECTED.
SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY...
GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS WESTERN US
WITH MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM SHIFTING WELL NORTH AND EAST OF
CWA. ECMWF IS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND CLOSE
UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES POSSIBLY BRINGING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
BACK TO NORTHERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS OUR CWA. THERE
ISNT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY ON THIS WEAK FEATURE BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLES SO I KEPT SUN/SUN NIGHT DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THESE PERIODS WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
LOWER 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS.
CONSENSUS/MODEL BLEND SEEMED APPROPRIATE...SO LITTLE CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS STORMS MARCH ACROSS THE
AREA. PERIOD OF POST FRONTAL LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH SUNRISE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
139 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED STRONG TROUGH
MOVING INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. AT THE SFC...FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH FRONT DRAPED FROM KLBL TO
KMCI.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL CENTER AROUND
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS
IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WHILE SEEING CURRENT DRY AIR IN THE AREA
DOES CAUSE SOME CONCERN ON PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BULK OF NEAR TERM
MODELS ALL INDICATE A TAP OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING NEAR SFC FRONT
AND INTERACTING WITH ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE THIS EVENING. MIXING
RATIOS IN THIS PLUME ARE HIGH AND WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
EXPECT A DECENT RESPONSE TO PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS.
SOMEWHAT SURPRISED BY CONSISTENCY OF QPF OUTPUT FROM AVAILABLE
DATA SOURCES AND AM COMFORTABLE INCREASING GENERAL AMOUNTS TO 0.25
TO 0.75 AT MOST LOCATIONS. CHOSE NOT TO GO ON THE HIGH END OF
PRECIPITATION THOUGH...DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS OVER
MOISTURE QUALITY. FORCING WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNRISE AS DEEP
CAA TAKES OVER. SURPRISINGLY...SOME LOW TOPPED INSTABILITY DOES
EXIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SO A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS APPEAR
WARRANTED.
OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE WINDS BEHIND STRONG COLD
FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. 12Z NAM AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE THE RAP INDICATE STRONG 3 HR PRESSURE RISES IN EXCESS OF
6MB AS FRONT PASSES. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT. PLAYED UP WINDS A
BIT IN THE FORECAST...BUT UNTIL STRONG PRESSURE RISES/GUSTS BECOME
MORE APPARENT IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA PLAN ON HOLDING OFF ON ANY
HIGHLIGHTS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S. LACK OF FORCING AND JET WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS STORMS MARCH ACROSS THE
AREA. PERIOD OF POST FRONTAL LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH SUNRISE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1200 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE
PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. BROAD TROUGH IS OVER MOST OF
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS LEAVES THE AREA IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS MOVING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC.
MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL AND AT MID LEVELS. THE NAM
WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE AND WIND FIELD. MODELS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED OUT A
LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE FOG AND STRATUS
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED. LITTLE CLOUD COVER ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE IN THE EASTERN SIX COUNTIES. THE
SMALL SCALE MODELS HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THIS WELL WITH THE HRRR VERY
CLOSE.
SO NOT ONLY HAVE INCREASED/EXPANDED COVERAGE AND EXTENT...BUT HAVE
ALSO HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN SIX
COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z. NOW TO THE PRECIPITATION. DURING THE
MORNING THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF STRONG UPPER JET MOVES FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AND BY 18Z WILL BE AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON IT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST WITH THE LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
UPPER JET KEEPS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND SOME KIND OF JET
LIFT AFFECTS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF EITHER A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
OR A COUPLE JET STRUCTURE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE WESTERN END OF OUR BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OLD FRONT IS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND
SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AND MORE STABLE OVER THE AREA UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND HAVE CONFINED THEM TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
ALL MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT ALONG WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE NEGATIVE AND WILL ALLOW FOR
A STRONG RESPONSE TO THE LIFT. RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH MOST
IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA RECEIVING RAINFALL. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT
GREAT WITH CAPE BELOW 1000. HOWEVER SHEAR IS VERY GOOD AND MAY
COMPENSATE FOR THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PRESSURE RISES NEAR
5 MB WILL SUPPORT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WHAT COULD ENHANCE THIS THREAT IS THE EXPECTED COLD POOL
GENERATE BY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIFT LOOK TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION GOING UNTIL LATE IN THE MORNING. BREEZY WINDS IN THE
MORNING SHOULD DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MODELS ARE NOW
STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH POTENT UPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE
NIGHT.
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF UPPER JETS AND SOUTHERN END OF ABOVE
MENTIONED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY NORTHERN AND
EASTERN LOCATIONS...DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
JET LIFT AND STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACTING ON LOW
THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. SO
ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES APPROACHING 10 MB SHOULD ALLOW
FOR WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER JET AXIS IS NEAR/OVER THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE DAY. BY 18Z THIS JET MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. ALSO
STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF SUN TO ALLOW SOME MIXING
TO OCCUR. WINDS AT 700 MB RANGE FROM 40 KNOTS TO 55 KNOTS. HOWEVER
MODELS ARE NOT MIXING TO THIS HEIGHT DUE TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE POOR
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS AT THIS TIME. AT THE
VERY LEAST WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER IF BETTER MIXING OCCURS WARNING CRITERIA COULD BE MET...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COOL...MOSTLY FROM THE MIDDLE 50S
TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...SOME GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER THAN THAT. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NOT GETTING VERY WARM AND
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
DEWPOINTS...THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON COULD BE
REACHED. PATCHY FROST COULD BE POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S. LACK OF FORCING AND JET WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS STORMS MARCH ACROSS THE
AREA. PERIOD OF POST FRONTAL LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH SUNRISE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
354 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE SPELL OF THE STRONG
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN QUEBEC AND
CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH A SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING BACK
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT A
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW TROPOSPHERE FEED INTO THE STATE DESPITE A WEAK
MIDLEVEL RIDGE SLIDING OVERHEAD. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
ESSENTIALLY CAUSE THE PATTERN LOCALLY TO REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...DISALLOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADVECTIONS OR AIRMASS
TURNOVER. CLOUD TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SLUGGISH IN MANY
AREAS WITH A TRANSITION FROM STRATUS TO CUMULOFORM. THERE HAS BEEN A
RAPID CLEARING TREND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
BUT SUSPECT THIS TO SLOW DOWN AND NOT MAKE MUCH INROADS TO
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN BEFORE SUNDOWN. INSTEAD...EXPECT VERTICAL
CLOUD CIRCULATIONS TO DEEPEN YET OVER THE NEXT 4 HOURS WHICH WILL
SUPPORT GREATER CONVECTIVE ELEMENT SPACING AND INTRODUCE GREATER
CLOUD SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
SET THE STAGES FOR A RAPID CLEARING TREND IN MANY AREAS POST SUNSET
WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING.
NAM AND LATEST HRRR NWP IS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF FOG TONIGHT WITH A
MUCH BETTER PROFILE FOR NEAR SURFACE SATURATION IN COMPARISON TO
YESTERDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LACK OF ADVECTIONS ALONG
WITH THE CONTINUATION OF GREENUP ACROSS THE AREA...HIGH AMBIENT
MOISTURE IN THE BACKGROUND SHOULD SUPPORT FOG FAIRLY EARLY
TONIGHT...I.E. SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF ONTARIO...PORT HURON AND THE EASTERN
THUMB BEFORE SPREADING WESTWARD. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A SIGNAL
THAT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERRAIN IN HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE
AREAS COULD VERY WELL BE A FAVORABLE ZONE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN
THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE...DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT 100 PERCENT AS IT SELDOM IS...AND WILL GIVE LATER SHIFTS THE
FLEXIBILITY ON ANY POSSIBLE HEADLINE DECISIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM...
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE EXISTING LONGWAVE TROUGHING NOW
ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS WILL UNDERGO SUBSTANTIAL
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS PROCESS WILL COMMENCE AS
STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN ATTENDANT 140 KT UPPER JET CORE
CURRENTLY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA DIG INTO THE LOWER HEIGHT FIELD.
STRENGTHENING DYNAMICS ATTENDANT TO A LEAD WAVE UNDERCUTTING THE
AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER TO END THE
WORK WEEK. THE DEEPENING PROCESS WILL THEN LEAVE A CLOSED LOW
CONFIGURATION CENTERED JUST TO THE NORTH FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...SPELLING A CONSIDERABLY COLDER AND UNSETTLED PERIOD.
A DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THURSDAY AS THE
GRADUALLY EXPANDING HEIGHT FALLS NUDGE THE EXISTING UPPER RIDGE TO
THE EAST. THIS PROCESS WILL MIX OUT ANY LINGERING FOG THROUGH LATE
MORNING...WITH THE ENSUING INCREASE IN MID LEVEL WARM AIR AND
THETA-E ADVECTION PROMPTING A STEADY THICKENING OF A HIGH BASED
CLOUD DECK DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. DESPITE THE WARMING
THERMAL PROFILE...A LINGERING SOUTHEAST SURFACE WIND AND LIMITED
MIXING DEPTH WILL MUTE THE OVERALL RESPONSE SLIGHTLY. IN ACCORDANCE
WITH THE GOING FORECAST...WILL CONTINUE TO TEMPER EXPECTATIONS WITH
HIGHS OF LOW TO MID 70S. TANGIBLE FORCING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
PERIOD REMAINS LESS DEFINED LOCALLY...THE AREA LARGELY REMOVED TO
THE EAST FROM THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF ASCENT LOCKED ONTO THE
THETA-E RIDGE AND PRIMARY TRAJECTORY OF ANY LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FUNNELING THROUGH THE MEAN SW FLOW. THERE REMAINS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS AXIS TO CREEP FAR ENOUGH EAST TO SUPPORT SOME
LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES. LOW
CHANCE POPS REMAIN APPROPRIATE FOR THIS AREA GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY.
THE INCREASING INTERACTION BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN
WAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE DEEPENING
LOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL PROMPT RAPID SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AND A
STRENGTHENING OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT UPSTREAM BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE DOWNSTREAM PROPAGATION OF A STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD
/50 KTS AT 850MB/ EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND AT THE EDGE OF
THE INBOUND LOWER HEIGHT FIELD WILL LIKELY PROMOTE AN EXPANSION IN
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE MIDWEST BY LATE THURSDAY.
THIS FORCING REMAINS FORECAST TO TRACK THROUGH SE MICHIGAN LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...A CORRESPONDING STEADY INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMMENCING DURING THIS TIME. DEEPEST ASCENT
IN PLACE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY...A PERIOD OF SOLID UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND CVA WORKING INTO A MOISTENING PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. EXISTING MID LEVEL INSTABILITY CERTAINLY SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A THUNDER MENTION...A FEW STRONGER GUSTS A POSSIBILITY GIVEN
THE WIND FIELD SHOULD BEST CORES CAPITALIZE ON THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY.
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO 993 MB AS IT TRACKS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON
FRIDAY. THE OVERALL AMPLITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO FAVOR A
SLOWER DOWNSTREAM PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN HEIGHT FALL CENTER...WITH
THE CORRESPONDING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE NOW EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A TRAILING PERIOD OF CVA AS THE STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS
COMMENCE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES WILL SUSTAIN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS POST-FRONTAL SHOWER PRODUCTION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SUSTAINED BY A 130 TO 140KT JET
THAT DIPS SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW BECOMES CLOSED AT 500MB...BOTTOMING OUT
AROUND 538 DAM. EVEN AFTER SYNOPTIC RAIN ENDS ON SATURDAY...STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS EACH DAY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. STRONG GEOSTROPHIC
WIND COMPONENT WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH DAYTIME
GUSTS OVER 20 MPH BEING COMMON.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF GUSTY CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL LAKE HURON BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 30 KNOTS...ALTHOUGH THE
ARRIVAL OF WARMER AIR WILL MAINTAIN A HIGHER DEGREE OF STABILITY
NEAR THE SURFACE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH DURING THIS TIME. A GUSTY
WESTERLY WIND FOR THE WEEKEND AS SEASONABLY COLD AIR OVERSPREADS THE
LAKES REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 147 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014
//DISCUSSION...
RESIDUAL CYCLONIC FLOW IN ADDITION TO A RELATIVELY MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS MAINTAINING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUD TODAY. LACK OF ADVECTION DURING THE NEXT 6
HOURS WILL MAKE CLEARING TRENDS VERY SLUGGISH. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUPPORTS A CONVERSION OF CLOUD INTO CUMULOFORM AND CELL
BASED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. EXPECT DEEPENING CONVECTIVE CIRCULATIONS
TO LEAD TO A GREATER CLOUD SCALE SUBSIDENCE COMPONENT WHICH WILL
HELP NOCTURNAL COOLING PROCESSES THIS EVENING IN ALLOWING CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE. PROVIDED THAT CLOUD COVER LESSENS TONIGHT...THE CONTINUED
LACK OF DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL THEN ALLOW THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND TIMING IS LOW AT THIS
POINT...ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THAT DEVELOPMENT COULD
HAPPEN RATHER QUICK...SOMETIME SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT PERSISTING THIS
AFTERNOON.
* LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 200 FT AND/OR
VISIBILITIES BELOW A HALF MILE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....MR/MM
MARINE.......MR
AVIATION.....CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1157 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A COMPACT 995 MB LOW NEAR RUGBY
/ND/ WITH A TRAILING SFC COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT DOWN THROUGH THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS THAT EVENTUALLY WORKS INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. TO
THE EAST...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE ACROSS ONTARIO...BUT DRY
SE WINDS EMANATING FROM IT HAVE REALLY IMPEDED THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE MPX CWA...TO THIS POINT ANYWAYS. ALOFT...THE
FEATURE OF INTEREST SHOWS UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING
INTO WRN KS...AND THIS WAVE WILL BE OVER SRN MN BY THE AFTERNOON.
SE WINDS EMANATING FROM THE GREAT LAKES HIGH HAS HELD SFC DEWPS IN
THE 40S ACROSS ERN MN/WRN WI THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH COMBINED WITH
THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE AND ITS FORCING GOING DUE NORTH THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO SRN CANADA...BYPASSING THE MPX AREA TO THE
NW...RESULTED IN THE MPX CWA REMAINING MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...AS THE KS WAVE APPROACHES...CONTINUED HEIGHT FALLS OUT
AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE ERN HALF
OF THE MPX AREA WITHIN THE ZONE OF GREATEST ASCENT WITHIN THE
LLJ...WHICH WILL BE WORKING UP THROUGH WRN WI. HI-RES REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS CERTAINLY BEAR THE LOOK OF A LIMITED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FORECAST...SO HAVE CONTINUE TO HOLD A THUNDER MENTION THROUGH THE
DAY AT ISOLATED. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF QPF WITH A GOOD
HALF TO ONE RAIN OF RAIN FALLING TODAY ALONG/EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...USED A PRETTY MUCH EVEN MODEL BLEND FOR
QPF...WHICH RESULTED IN THE DESIRED HALF TO ONE INCH AMOUNTS. OF
COURSE WITH THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN FALLING INTO AN AIRMASS WITH DEWPS
CURRENTLY IN THE 40S...IT WILL NOT WARM UP MUCH TODAY...SO COOLED
HIGHS ACROSS ERN MN/WRN WI...KEEPING THEM MAINLY IN THE 50S.
OUT IN WRN MN...DID INTRODUCE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS OUT THERE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE THREAT FOR SEEING ISO-SCT
SHOWERS/STORM DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BE
ENTERING WRN MN DURING PEAK HEATING. MOST GUIDANCE POINTS TO SOME
BREAKS DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON OUT WEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S. THE NAM SHOWS 500-1000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE WORKING EAST WITH THE FRONT TODAY...SO FELT SOME 20/30 POPS
WERE WARRANTED OUT WEST WITH THE HRRR SHOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT BY THE AFTERNOON AND THE 01.00 ECMWF
SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT QPF OUT IN WRN MN ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AS WELL.
FOR TONIGHT...DRIED OUT THE ENTIRE CWA AFTER 6Z AS THE KS WAVE WILL
BE WELL OFF INTO NRN MN BY THEN...WITH ANY ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT
LOSING INTEREST WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. BY 12Z THU...THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE MN/WI BORDER. WINDS WILL BE CALM/LIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SO WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WATCH
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS ERN MN/WRN WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD IN THE 7-DAY FORECAST IS THE THU-FRI
TIME FRAME WITH A DEEP TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA THAT IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER MT/ID/NV BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WE DELAYED THE ONSET
OF PRECIP ON THURSDAY TO INCLUDE A MORE DEFINED BREAK IN THE
PRECIP BETWEEN THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE ONE EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK. THIS
ENTIRE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND THERE HAS
ALSO BEEN AN EASTWARD TREND IN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE 10.00Z
NAM WAS THE FARTHEST WEST AND THUS WETTEST SOLUTION FOR THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT EVEN THE 10.06Z GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED EAST -
ALTHOUGH THE NAM STILL HAS REALLY GOOD FGEN AND HEAVY BANDED
PRECIP IN WESTERN WI AND FAR EASTERN MN FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WAS
ALSO AN EASTWARD SHIFT WITH 10.00Z ECMWF. THE GFS SORT OF SPLITS
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM AND ECMWF. THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
PRECIP LOCALLY IS DUE TO THE DEVELOPING DRY SLOT WITH MOST OF THE
PRECIP POTENTIALLY SLIDING EAST. EVEN IF MOST OF THE PRECIP
SLIDES EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...THE POTENT UPPER
WAVE SHOULD PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION
AND STRONG WINDS DURING THE DAY.
FRIDAY LOOKS QUITE BLUSTERY AND WE ARE NOW THINKING MANY LOCATIONS
MIGHT NOT EVEN HIT 50 FOR A HIGH. THE GUSTY WINDS...CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN WILL MAKE THE UPPER 40S FEEL EVEN COOLER. SPEAKING OF
THE WIND...WE WILL LIKELY BE WITHIN 5-10 MPH OF WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN MN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A HIGH BUILDS
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SPEED OF THE MSLP PRESSURE FALLS IS
NOT WELL AGREED UPON AMONGST THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF. THE CIPS ANALOGS
FOR FRIDAY ARE NOT VERY CONVINCING FOR WIND ADVISORY...BUT STILL
SHOW PLENTY OF WIND AND ALSO MATCH MANY OCTOBER DAYS WHERE MN/WI
STAYED IN THE 40S FOR HIGHS. NONETHELESS...WE HAVE SUSTAINED 25-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THE FORECAST FOR MN SIMPLY BASED ON
THE NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING REALLY GOOD MIXING WITH
THE COLD ADVECTION AND 40-50KTS AT 850MB BY 00Z SATURDAY.
FOR THE MOST PART WE THINK THE COMING WEEKEND WILL BE DRY...BUT
STILL QUITE COOL. THERE HAS BEEN SOME RUNS SHOWING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF LONGWAVE
TROUGH WHICH ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER UPPER MISS...GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST US EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...A VAST MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ATTACHED TO THE CORE OF THE TROUGH WHERE
THERE IS MUCH BETTER LIFT. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE NEXT WEEK
WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE TROUGH ANCHORED AND THE ECMWF BEING MUCH
MORE PROGRESSIVE IN BUILDING HEIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
THE TROUGH OVER NORTH DAKOTA THAT HAS FACILITATED A SOLID AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI ALONG WITH LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS MANITOBA DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
PERIODIC WAVES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING WILL
MAINTAIN REDUCTIONS TO FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...THE CONCERN WILL SHIFT TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AND STRATUS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE CIGS LOOK TO BE THE WORST FOR WEST CENTRAL WI
SITES...WHERE LIFR AND EVEN VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS IMPACTFUL WITH
WESTWARD PROGRESSION TOWARD KAXN/KSTC/KRWF.
THE NEXT SLUG OF MOISTURE AND ROBUST LIFT ARRIVE ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY AFFECTING KMSP/KRNH/KEAU...WITH
KSTC AND KRWF ON THE WESTERN FRINGES.
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TONIGHT...WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND OR UNDER 6
KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KMSP...
CIGS ARE ADMITTEDLY TRICKY FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVE. EXPECT THE AREA OF
RAIN TO EXIT THE AIRPORT BY 20Z. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCT BREAKS IN THE SUB-1000FT DECK THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 1700 FT THROUGH 22Z. WILL THEN HAVE A
WINDOW OF TIME UNTIL 02Z WHEN CIGS COULD IMPROVE TO OVC020...BUT
THEN SHOULD DROP BACK TO AROUND 1500FT AROUND/AFTER SUNSET AND
REMAIN IFR OVERNIGHT. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WITH
POCKETS OF 1/2SM VSBYS NEAR THE AIRPORT. NOT CONFIDENT IF KMSP
WILL GO THAT LOW DIRECTLY AT THE SITE...SO WILL STICK WITH 1SM
PREVAILING FOR NOW.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MAINLY MVFR WITH CHC -SHRA. WINDS WNW 20G30 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...LS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1226 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
INTERESTING MESO-BETA SCALE CHANGES ARE MODIFYING THE CONDITIONS
AND NECESSITATING SHORT-TERM CHANGES TO THE FCST. A SERIES OF
GRAVITY WAVES HAVE EMANATED FROM THE SHWR ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPED
OVER CUSTER COUNTY. THIS HAS INITIATED AN ARC OF CLEARING OF THE
STRATUS FROM NW-SE. THE SKY FCST WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED. WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NW BEHIND THESE WAVES...BUT ARE STILL LIGHT
ENOUGH WITH LOW DWPT DEPRESSIONS THAT THIS CLEARING COULD ALLOW
FOG TO REDEVELOP.
SO EXPECT A TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT OF SKY/VSBY...BUT VSBYS COULD
LOWER AGAIN IN FOG.
AN SPS WAS POSTED AT 520 AM FOR PATCHES OF DENSE FOG. IT EXPIRES
AT 630. WE WILL CONT TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR ANOTHER ISSUANCE. AT
THIS TIME...THE ONLY DENSE FOG WAS OVER PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL KS.
UPDATED FCST WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
ALOFT: A SHORTWAVE TROF WAS MOVING THRU EARLY THIS MORNING AND
HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH CLOUDS AND EVEN TSTMS
OVER FILLMORE/THAYER COUNTIES. ANOTHER MORE POTENT/AMPLIFIED TROF
WAS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. THIS TROF WILL CONT E AND WILL BE
MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS AT SUNRISE TOMORROW WITH ITS WAVELENGTH
SHORTENING.
SURFACE: A STATIONARY FRONT BISECTED CNTRL NEB/KS. THIS FRONT
WILL SHOW A GENERAL TENDENCY TO DRIFT E TODAY AND THEN ACCELERATE
S AND E OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR NEAR
PUB TODAY AND WILL LATCH ONTO THE FRONT TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL BE
A PLAYER IN OUR WX THU-FRI.
EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDY MOST AREAS WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE
VISIBILITIES IN PATCHY FOG. THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF 1/4SM
VISIBILITY AT TIMES. THE ONLY AREA THAT HAS HAD SUSTAINED 1/4SM IN
DENSE FOG IS LXN. IF THIS CONTS WE WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WX
STATEMENT /SPS/ BEFORE THE MORNING COMMUTE ENSUES.
SOME SHWRS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM THE SANDHILLS DOWN TO CUSTER
COUNTY. THESE SHWRS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL PORTION OF THE
COMMA CLOUD OVER CNTRL NEB AND COULD SKIRT THRU AREAS ALONG AND N
OF I-80 THRU 9 AM.
TODAY: WHATEVER FOG/STRATUS IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING SHOULD BEGIN
ERODING 9-10 AM AND BE GONE BY 1 PM. HOWEVER...THIS IS BASED JUST ON
PAST EXPERIENCE. THE MODELS DO NOT HANDLE STRATUS WELL. THE EDGES
OF THE STRATUS ARE NEARBY...SO DAYTIME HEATING AND BL MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR EROSION AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION. FOR WHAT IT`S
WORTH...THE 00Z NAM LOW CLOUD FCST INDICATES IMPROVEMENT...BUT THE
LAST AREAS TO IMPROVE WILL BE ALONG THE NEB HWY 81 CORRIDOR. THE
06Z HRRR IS ON BOARD WITH IMPROVEMENT FROM THE W. IT COULD
POTENTIALLY TAKE UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON TO CLEAR OUT THERE.
AS FOR AFTERNOON TSTM POTENTIAL. IT LOOKS DOUBTFUL IN THIS FCSTRS
ESTIMATION. WHILE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROFS DURING PEAK HEATING AND WEAK
LOW-LVL WINDS MEANS A LACK OF BL CONVERGENCE. FURTHERMORE...THERE
IS A LOT OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND CONSENSUS OF MOS
AND MODEL 2M TEMPS IS THAT DWPTS WILL MIX DOWN INTO THE 40S W OF
HWY 281 AND 50S TO THE E. THE EASTWARD DRIFT OF THE FRONT WILL
ALSO SHOVE HIGHER DWPTS E OF THE FCST AREA. THAT WILL CREATE CINH
WHICH SHOULD PUT A CAP ON POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION...
ESPECIALLY WITHOUT SOME HELP ALOFT. COORDINATED WITH SPC AND
PENDING EVALUATION OF MORNING SOUNDINGS...THEY MAY SCALE BACK THE
SLGT RISK AREA. VERY LOW POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM
...BUT COVERAGE JUST LOOKS WAY TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A SLGT.
WHILE THE 15Z AND 21Z SREF INDICATED SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TSTMS...THE 03Z CAME IN DRY IN THE 21Z-00Z TIME FRAME.
IF SOMETHING CAN FORM...SREF MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG IS FCST.
LOW-LVL WINDS WILL BE WEAK...BUT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35 KTS. WILL CONT MENTION IN THE HWO
BUT KNOW THAT THIS IS CONDITIONAL BASED IN "IF" A TSTM OR TWO
FORMS AT ALL.
HIGH TEMPS ARE BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE BASED ON STRATUS AND HOW
LONG IT LINGERS. AREAS ALONG HWY 81 YESTERDAY STAYED IN THE 60S
FOR HIGHS BECAUSE CLOUDS LINGERED LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.
SO BOTTOM LINE FOR TODAY...CLOUDY TO START WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING.
SHOULD BE A NICE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY.
TONIGHT: BECOMING CLOUDY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL
SUPERIMPOSE SUBSTANTIAL QG FORCING/LIFT OVERTOP THE FRONTAL
SURFACE... RESULTING IN DEEP LIFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BURST OF
SHWRS AND TSTMS...ALTHOUGH WANING INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY BRING
THE THREAT OF THUNDER TO AN END FROM NW-SE. FRONTOGENETIC BANDING
POTENTIAL SUGGESTS THIS COULD RESULT IN A SWATH OF HEALTHY
RAINFALL (0.75" TO 1") FOR SOME PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
A COUPLE OF UPPER TROUGHS/COLD FRONTS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
MILD WEATHER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. STARTING ON THURSDAY...AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WHICH DEVELOPS WED NIGHT WILL BE ONGOING
THURSDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES AND
CANNOT RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE BEFORE PCPN ENDS
W/E BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST DURING THE DAY...REACHING IA/EASTERN
KS IN THE AFTN. H85 TEMPS DROP NEARLY 10C FROM WED TO THURS BEHIND
THE FRONT AND HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID
60S.
AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THURSDAY...THE NEXT ONE WILL
BE ON ITS HEELS...DIVING SOUTH FM SASKATCHEWAN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT REACHES OUR NW CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND RAPIDLY SWEEPS
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THREE HOUR PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT
AVERAGE 3 TO 6 MB AND THE NOCTURNAL FROPA WILL BE NOTICEABLE WITH
AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS OVER 30/40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS N/NW NEBRASKA MAY
GENERATE LIGHT PCPN IN VCNTY OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...BUT WITH LLVL
MOISTURE LACKING HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY WITH SILENT POPS BUT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR PERHAPS A SPRINKLE MENTION.
FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO A COOL WINDY DAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES INTO IOWA. THE SFC GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT THRU THE DAY IN
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW/COLD FRONT TO THE EAST AND A 1025MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING ABOVE H85 WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
AVERAGING 40KTS AND IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE WILL LIKELY NEED A
WIND ADVISORY FRIDAY. IN CAA...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL ONLY AVERAGE IN
THE 50S/LOW 60S.
BIGGER CHANGES IN THE FORECAST COME IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD IN
THE COLD AIRMASS...AND WE COULD SEE THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON
IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. THE SFC GRADIENT RELAXES FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW DEPARTS AND THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS DEVELOP THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SFC DPS ARE PROGGED IN THE 20S AND TEMPS SHOULD EASILY DROP INTO
THE 30S FOR LOWS. HAVE WENT WITH TEMPS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
ACROSS OUR W/NW CWA...WITH MID 30S FARTHER SOUTH...AND THIS IS
BASED ON A BLEND AND THERE IS MODEL SUPPORT FOR TEMPS A SEVERAL
DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS FORECAST. WILL INCLUDE THE COLD TEMPS IN
THE HWO IF TRENDS CONTINUE MAY NEED A FREEZE/FROST HEADLINE AS
THINGS GET CLOSER.
AFTER A COLD START TO THE WEEKEND SATURDAY MORNING...TEMPS WILL
TREND UP OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN HEIGHT RISES
BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO
ONTARIO AND ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE BACK SIDE...WE COULD SEE
SOME COOLER AIR BACKING IN FROM THE EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BUT THE AIRMASS CHANGE WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. CONDITIONS ARE STILL
PREDOMINANTLY DRY SUNDAY THRU TUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH KGRI AND KEAR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BUT LESS THAN 30 PERCENT SO LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE
TAF. A DECENT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT LOWERING CEILINGS AND INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN.
SHOULD BEGIN AROUND 09Z-10Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z BEFORE MOVING
EAST. WINDS SHOULD ALSO SWITCH TO THE NW AND INCREASE DURING THAT
TIME FRAME AS SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...EWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1220 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/
UPDATE...
SURFACE WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH AT EVERY OBSERVATION STATION
THROUGHOUT THE MIDSOUTH AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST. AS OF 10AM... TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY NEAR 80 DEGREES... A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT... I
RAISED HIGHS BY 1 DEGREE AREA WIDE. MORNING RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALREADY OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS
WITHIN AN AIRMASS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TOWARDS OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR AND NAM AGREE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TODAY SO POPS WERE RAISED IN NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY DEVELOPMENT.
JMP3
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/
UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.
CURRENTLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY ALLOWING SFC WINDS TO TURN AROUND
TO THE SOUTH. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER
THE MIDSOUTH. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. CAN/T RULE OUT
A FEW WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS TO OCCUR.
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
MIDSOUTH LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO BEGIN POPPING ACROSS THE
AREA BETWEEN 3-5 PM. MEANWHILE...A SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT WHICH WILL BE LOCATED BACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE LINE WILL BEGIN TO OUTRACE THE FRONT DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS ARE A TAD SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION
THE LINE THAN LAST NIGHTS RUN. EXPECT SQUALL LINE TO MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS BETWEEN 8-10PM. THE LINE WILL ROUGHLY BE
LOCATED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BETWEEN 12-2 AM. THE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE UNSTABLE WITH MODELS INDICATING CAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2200 J/KG. THE NAM IS SHOWING EVEN HIGHER CAPE
VALUES. HOWEVER...THE MODEL DOES NOT SHOW ANY WAA SHOWERS
OCCURRING IN THE MORNING LIKE THE GFS. THERE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS
AROUND THURSDAY MORNING AND IF WAA SHOWERS DO OCCUR LIKE THE GFS
IS INDICATING...THIS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AT LEAST INITIALLY.
BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT AIRMASS TO BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME STRONG STORMS BUT BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL COME FROM THE SQUALL LINE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS. SPC HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK EASTWARD TO
A LINE STRETCHING FROM PARIS...TO BOLIVAR...TO OXFORD. WITH LATEST
MODELS INDICATING A LITTLE SLOWER PROGRESSION WITH SQUALL
LINE...WILL KEEP SLIGHT RISK IN HWO AS IS...COVERING EASTERN ARKANSAS
AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. SQUALL LINE WILL BEGIN WEAKENING FROM
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING DURING THE LATE EVENING TO EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE MORNING ON FRIDAY. BY
AFTERNOON...SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONLY
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXPECT BEAUTIFUL AUTUMN WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDSOUTH. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY AS WELL. MODELS ARE
NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT AT THIS TIME.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AT JBR BETWEEN 02/13-17Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. LIGHT SE/S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 8-11 KTS BY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH VCSH POSSIBLE. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY NIGHT.
CJC
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
141 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
BACK DOOR FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS BY TONIGHT BEFORE
ERODING. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL AGAIN WEDGE SOUTH ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT ARRIVES LATER FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1225 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWED WESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS FROM
ROCKBRIDGE COUNTY TO NEAR NEAR BEDFORD TO REIDSVILLE AT NOON. THE
GOES R NSSL SIMULATED WRF SKY COVER HAS MUCH OF THE LOW CLOUD
SCATTERED OUT BY 2PM. STILL JUST BEGINNING TO SEE STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOP IN THE WEST WHERE THERE HAS BEEN MORE SUNSHINE SO FAR
TODAY. HAVE ADJUSTED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST BASED ON THESE
CLOUD TRENDS.
LOCAL WRF DATA...SREF AND LATEST HRRR HOLD CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FAR NORTHEAST AND EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF A HOT SPRINGS TO LYNCHBURG
TO HALIFAX LINE. DO NOT EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS UNTIL
19-20Z/3-4PM.
TONIGHT...THE FRONT DISSIPATES LEAVING BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE AND
SEMBLANCE OF ANOTHER WEDGE. NAM/CMC AGAIN FOCUSING MORE CLOUDS IN
THE ERN CWA OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE
WITH DZ BUT WILL KEEP SOME TOWARD MORNING IN THE EAST ALONG WITH
FOG.
LOWS TONIGHT WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE VALLEYS IN THE WEST WITH LOWER TO MID 50S
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE WEDGED SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE
RIDGE EARLY THURSDAY LIKELY RESULTING IN AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH
SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE AND FOG. HOWEVER GUIDANCE AGAIN LESS OPTIMISTIC
ABOUT DRIZZLE GIVEN VERY SHALLOW NATURE TO THE MOISTURE AND EARLY
MORNING TIMING OF BRINGING IN THE LOW DECK. THUS TRIMMED BACK
DRIZZLE/FOG COVERAGE TO MAINLY THE BLUE RIDGE IN VIRGINIA AND POINTS
EAST EARLY ON. INCREASING SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD ACT TO BUMP
THE SURFACE RIDGE FARTHER EAST DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING
MIXING TO SCOUR OUT MOST OF THE WEDGE AS WARMING ALOFT KICKS IN. THIS
SHOULD ALSO PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 75-80 RANGE WEST AND LOW/MID 80S EAST
EXCEPT COOLER NE PENDING CLOUDS.
RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE STRONG UPSTREAM 5H TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED PRE-FRONTAL -SHRA WORK INTO THE FAR SW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW LEVEL WEDGE TO REDEVELOP OUT EAST WHERE SOME
SPOTTY DRIZZLE EVEN POSSIBLE LATE. OTRW ANY LIFT PER RIDGING LOOKS TOO
WEAK TO PRODUCE MUCH SO RUNNING BASICALLY DRY WITH LOWS 50S TO LOWER
60S.
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY BUT LOOKS TO SLOW
UPON ENCOUNTERING THE EASTERN RIDGE WHILE THE BEST DYNAMICS PASS WELL
OFF TO THE NORTH. LATEST ECMWF REMAINS THE SLOWEST GIVEN A BIT MORE
NEGATIVE TILT AS MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS BRING THE BOUNDARY INTO THE WEST
LATE FRIDAY BUT DONT CLEAR THE PIEDMONT UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
SUGGESTS A NEED TO SLOW ONSET OF HIGHER POPS DOWN A FEW HOURS WITH THE
HIGHER LIKELY/CAT POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN
SLOWLY WORKING/DEVELOPING EAST UPON GETTING BOOTED ALONG BY THE
APPROACH OF THE MIDWEST 5H COLD POOL/SPEED MAX. HOWEVER APPEARS SHOWERS
MAY LINGER OUT EAST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH POPS FINALLY TAPERING
OFF IN THE PIEDMONT TOWARD DAYBREAK WHILE REDEVELOPING WESTERN RIDGES
PER INCREASING POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE. OVERALL LOW TOPPED SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS MARGINAL ALTHOUGH A SLOWER SOLUTION COULD ACT TO ENHANCE WESTERN
INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON PER BETTER NAM CAPE VALUES. HOWEVER WIND
FIELDS ALOFT AND LAPSES APPEAR WEAKER OVER THE WEST AND STRONGER EAST
WHERE LIKELY OFFSET VIA SOMEWHAT OF A RESIDUAL WEDGE UNTIL LATE.
THEREFORE KEPT SOME THUNDER MENTION MOST SPOTS AND MORE IN LINE WITH
THE STRONGER GFS SOLUTION. SLOWER TIMING SHOULD MEAN A BOUNCE IN HIGH
TEMPS ESPCLY EAST FRIDAY WHERE AROUND 80 POSSIBLE WITH MOST OTHER SPOTS
IN THE 70S GIVEN A FEW MORE HOURS OF INSOLATION FOR NOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH
DRIER COOLER AIR MOVING IN ON WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PLACE A
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. BREEZY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTH INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST
ALONG THE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND...SHUTTING DOWN ANY MOISTURE
RETURNING INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE MOVING A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS THIS
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA...IT WILL BE HARD-PRESSED TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE RECOVERY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5F-10F COOLER THAN NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE TOWARDS NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED STRATUS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
CONTINUING TO LIFT AND BECOME SCATTERED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KLYH AT THE BEGINNING OF THE 18Z TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK SHORT WAVE CROSSING THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE PROBABILITY WAS TOO LOW AT
THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE JUST NORTH AND EAST OF KLYH.
TONIGHT...WEDGE EXPECTED TO SET UP AND LOOKING AT MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBYS REFORMING AT LYH/DAN OVERNIGHT. NSSL WRF AND NAM BUFKIT
FORECAST BOTH SHOWED REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS AROUND
07Z/1AM TONIGHT. FOG AGAIN AT BCB/LWB IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE LATE.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL 13Z/9AM.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
EXPECT VFR THU AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING
AND THE PIEDMONT IN THE AFTERNOON. SUB VFR EXPECTED IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED TSRA.
SHOWERS EXITING THE MTNS BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING AND THE PIEDMONT
TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY. TIMING OF CLEARING IS STILL TRICKY.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE CLEARING OUT IN THE PIEDMONT TO
ROANOKE/BLACKSBURG BUT UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS AT BLF/LWB MAY OCCUR INTO
SAT AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZY NW WINDS.
WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN VFR SUNDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1233 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
BACK DOOR FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS BY TONIGHT BEFORE
ERODING. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL AGAIN WEDGE SOUTH ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT ARRIVES LATER FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1225 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWED WESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS FROM
ROCKBRIDGE COUNTY TO NEAR NEAR BEDFORD TO REIDSVILLE AT NOON. THE
GOES R NSSL SIMULATED WRF SKY COVER HAS MUCH OF THE LOW CLOUD
SCATTERED OUT BY 2PM. STILL JUST BEGINNING TO SEE STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOP IN THE WEST WHERE THERE HAS BEEN MORE SUNSHINE SO FAR
TODAY. HAVE ADJUSTED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST BASED ON THESE
CLOUD TRENDS.
LOCAL WRF DATA...SREF AND LATEST HRRR HOLD CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FAR NORTHEAST AND EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF A HOT SPRINGS TO LYNCHBURG
TO HALIFAX LINE. DO NOT EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS UNTIL
19-20Z/3-4PM.
TONIGHT...THE FRONT DISSIPATES LEAVING BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE AND
SEMBLANCE OF ANOTHER WEDGE. NAM/CMC AGAIN FOCUSING MORE CLOUDS IN
THE ERN CWA OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE
WITH DZ BUT WILL KEEP SOME TOWARD MORNING IN THE EAST ALONG WITH
FOG.
LOWS TONIGHT WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE VALLEYS IN THE WEST WITH LOWER TO MID 50S
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE WEDGED SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE
RIDGE EARLY THURSDAY LIKELY RESULTING IN AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH
SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE AND FOG. HOWEVER GUIDANCE AGAIN LESS OPTIMISTIC
ABOUT DRIZZLE GIVEN VERY SHALLOW NATURE TO THE MOISTURE AND EARLY
MORNING TIMING OF BRINGING IN THE LOW DECK. THUS TRIMMED BACK
DRIZZLE/FOG COVERAGE TO MAINLY THE BLUE RIDGE IN VIRGINIA AND POINTS
EAST EARLY ON. INCREASING SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD ACT TO BUMP
THE SURFACE RIDGE FARTHER EAST DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING
MIXING TO SCOUR OUT MOST OF THE WEDGE AS WARMING ALOFT KICKS IN. THIS
SHOULD ALSO PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 75-80 RANGE WEST AND LOW/MID 80S EAST
EXCEPT COOLER NE PENDING CLOUDS.
RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE STRONG UPSTREAM 5H TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED PRE-FRONTAL -SHRA WORK INTO THE FAR SW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW LEVEL WEDGE TO REDEVELOP OUT EAST WHERE SOME
SPOTTY DRIZZLE EVEN POSSIBLE LATE. OTRW ANY LIFT PER RIDGING LOOKS TOO
WEAK TO PRODUCE MUCH SO RUNNING BASICALLY DRY WITH LOWS 50S TO LOWER
60S.
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY BUT LOOKS TO SLOW
UPON ENCOUNTERING THE EASTERN RIDGE WHILE THE BEST DYNAMICS PASS WELL
OFF TO THE NORTH. LATEST ECMWF REMAINS THE SLOWEST GIVEN A BIT MORE
NEGATIVE TILT AS MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS BRING THE BOUNDARY INTO THE WEST
LATE FRIDAY BUT DONT CLEAR THE PIEDMONT UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
SUGGESTS A NEED TO SLOW ONSET OF HIGHER POPS DOWN A FEW HOURS WITH THE
HIGHER LIKELY/CAT POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN
SLOWLY WORKING/DEVELOPING EAST UPON GETTING BOOTED ALONG BY THE
APPROACH OF THE MIDWEST 5H COLD POOL/SPEED MAX. HOWEVER APPEARS SHOWERS
MAY LINGER OUT EAST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH POPS FINALLY TAPERING
OFF IN THE PIEDMONT TOWARD DAYBREAK WHILE REDEVELOPING WESTERN RIDGES
PER INCREASING POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE. OVERALL LOW TOPPED SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS MARGINAL ALTHOUGH A SLOWER SOLUTION COULD ACT TO ENHANCE WESTERN
INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON PER BETTER NAM CAPE VALUES. HOWEVER WIND
FIELDS ALOFT AND LAPSES APPEAR WEAKER OVER THE WEST AND STRONGER EAST
WHERE LIKELY OFFSET VIA SOMEWHAT OF A RESIDUAL WEDGE UNTIL LATE.
THEREFORE KEPT SOME THUNDER MENTION MOST SPOTS AND MORE IN LINE WITH
THE STRONGER GFS SOLUTION. SLOWER TIMING SHOULD MEAN A BOUNCE IN HIGH
TEMPS ESPCLY EAST FRIDAY WHERE AROUND 80 POSSIBLE WITH MOST OTHER SPOTS
IN THE 70S GIVEN A FEW MORE HOURS OF INSOLATION FOR NOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH
DRIER COOLER AIR MOVING IN ON WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PLACE A
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. BREEZY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTH INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST
ALONG THE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND...SHUTTING DOWN ANY MOISTURE
RETURNING INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE MOVING A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS THIS
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA...IT WILL BE HARD-PRESSED TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE RECOVERY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5F-10F COOLER THAN NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE TOWARDS NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 738 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
LOW STRATUS/FOG WILL LIFT TOWARD 13-15Z AT ALL SITES AND EXPECT TO
SEE VFR AT ALL SITES BY MIDDAY/LATER AT LYH AND DAN AROUND 18-19Z.
NOT REALLY SEEING A GOOD THREAT FOR SHOWERS AT THE TAF
SITES...ALTHOUGH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO HAVE A SHOWER OR TWO
MOVE NEAR LYH THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...WEDGE EXPECTED TO SET UP AND LOOKING AT MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBYS AT LYH/DAN OVERNIGHT WITH FOG AGAIN AT BCB/LWB IN THE
IFR/LIFR RANGE LATE.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ANY FOG...LOW CLOUDS WILL START TO ERODE IN THE WEST BY 13-15Z THU
BUT COULD SEE SUB VFR CIGS OUT EAST INTO MIDDAY AT LYH...BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT.
EXPECT VFR THU AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING
AND THE PIEDMONT IN THE AFTERNOON. SUB VFR EXPECTED IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED TSRA. HAVE SHOWERS EXITING THE MTNS BY LATE
FRIDAY EVENING AND THE PIEDMONT TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY. TIMING IS
STILL TRICKY. SATURDAY SHOULD BE CLEARING OUT IN THE PIEDMONT TO
ROANOKE/BLACKSBURG BUT UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS AT BLF/LWB MAY OCCUR INTO
SAT AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZY NW WINDS.
VFR SUNDAY WITH SW WINDS TAKING SHAPE BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
604 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
PRECIPITATION TIMING IS THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST.
RADAR TIME LAPSE INDICATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THESE SHOWERS WERE
DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY CONTINUED INTO NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HRRR MODEL APPEARED TO DO A BETTER JOB OF
DEPICTING THIS THAN THE NAM/GFS/EC/SREF. STILL...HAVE LEFT SHOWERS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DUE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
SURFACE FLOW BECOMES QUITE LIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK...DUE TO A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. HAVE AREAS OF FOG AROUND DAYBREAK DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE...LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...AND 12Z MOS
GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW VISIBILITIES IN FOG.
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY SHOULD
BE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE FRONT
TOWARD WISCONSIN. HAVE RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES INCREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW APPROACHES.
THE WET CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...AND
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WARMER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
PCPN TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SFC LOW LIFTING NNE ALONG
A STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SPREADING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THURSDAY
EVENING. A FEW TSTMS SHOULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OVER ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. A DECREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT...AND THE REST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
A DEEP UPPER TROF/UPPER LOW APPROACHES. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...FRIDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER
THAN ON THURSDAY.
THE UPPER TROF WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT...
SO SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BECOME LAKE-
ENHANCED OVER NC WI...WHERE COLD NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS THERE. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION
OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR NC WI LATE...AS H8 TEMPS DROP
TO -2 TO -4 C. A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN WI...THEN TAPER OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WIND TRAJECTORIES BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO..WITH SEVERAL S/W TROFS
ROTATING THROUGH WI. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND LLVL WINDS WILL
BE TOO WESTERLY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE-EFFECT. WILL HAVE LOW
POPS (15-30 PERCENT) OVER MOST OF THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...
ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES. IF PCPN OCCURS OVER NORTHERN WI...
A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/MORNING PERIODS.
EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO MIDWEEK...WITH A BIT OF
A WARMUP POSSIBLE. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THOUGH...
AS MODELS SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF H8 TEMPS OVER THE WSTRN GREAT
LAKES. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE H8 TEMPS OF +16 TO +20 OFF THE
00Z ECMWF...AS THEY SEEM ANOMALOUS COMPARED TO THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS...AND UNLIKELY WITH A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR IN
MOST PLACES LATE TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD RISE FROM IFR EARLY TO MVFR IN THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING DURING THE EVENING. VERY LOW CLOUDS AND
DENSE FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......RDM
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
PRECIPITATION TIMING IS THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST.
RADAR TIME LAPSE INDICATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THESE SHOWERS WERE
DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY CONTINUED INTO NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HRRR MODEL APPEARED TO DO A BETTER JOB OF
DEPICTING THIS THAN THE NAM/GFS/EC/SREF. STILL...HAVE LEFT SHOWERS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DUE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
SURFACE FLOW BECOMES QUITE LIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK...DUE TO A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. HAVE AREAS OF FOG AROUND DAYBREAK DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE...LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...AND 12Z MOS
GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW VISIBILITIES IN FOG.
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY SHOULD
BE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE FRONT
TOWARD WISCONSIN. HAVE RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES INCREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW APPROACHES.
THE WET CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...AND
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WARMER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
PCPN TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SFC LOW LIFTING NNE ALONG
A STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SPREADING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THURSDAY
EVENING. A FEW TSTMS SHOULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OVER ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. A DECREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT...AND THE REST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
A DEEP UPPER TROF/UPPER LOW APPROACHES. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...FRIDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER
THAN ON THURSDAY.
THE UPPER TROF WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT...
SO SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BECOME LAKE-
ENHANCED OVER NC WI...WHERE COLD NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS THERE. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION
OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR NC WI LATE...AS H8 TEMPS DROP
TO -2 TO -4 C. A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN WI...THEN TAPER OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WIND TRAJECTORIES BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO..WITH SEVERAL S/W TROFS
ROTATING THROUGH WI. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND LLVL WINDS WILL
BE TOO WESTERLY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE-EFFECT. WILL HAVE LOW
POPS (15-30 PERCENT) OVER MOST OF THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...
ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES. IF PCPN OCCURS OVER NORTHERN WI...
A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/MORNING PERIODS.
EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO MIDWEEK...WITH A BIT OF
A WARMUP POSSIBLE. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THOUGH...
AS MODELS SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF H8 TEMPS OVER THE WSTRN GREAT
LAKES. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE H8 TEMPS OF +16 TO +20 OFF THE
00Z ECMWF...AS THEY SEEM ANOMALOUS COMPARED TO THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS...AND UNLIKELY WITH A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
CIGS WERE MAINLY MVFR ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME CLEARING BETWEEN LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE STATE AND THE CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. CIGS
MAY IMPROVE TO VFR AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PREVAILING SHOULD
BE MOSTLY MVFR. SHOWERS THAT MOVED INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLIER
IN THE DAY WERE MAKING SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS SO HAVE KEPT CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TAFS DRY UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND
LEFT THE EAST DRY UNTIL THIS EVENING. HRRR SUGGESTS A RELATIVELY
SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN WHILE THE NAM/GFS/SREF/EC ALL HANG ON TO
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR QUITE A BIT LONGER. RIGHT NOW THE
HRRR IS LOOKING BETTER BUT HAVE DECIDED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION AND KEEP THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AROUND FOR LONGER. 12Z
MOS GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND GFS SHOWED LOW VSBYS IN FOG AROUND
12Z THURSDAY SO HAVE TEMPO GROUP WITH 1/2SM FG AT THE TAF SITES.
BASED ON WHAT I SAW FROM THIS MORNINGS OBSERVATIONS THERE DID NOT
APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...SO DID NOT USE IT AS THE
PREVAILING CONDITION. HAVE LEFT SHOWERS WITHOUT THUNDER TONIGHT
BUT WENT WITH A PROB30 FOR THUNDER ON THURSDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
250 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING DRAGGING A
STATIONARY FRONT INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA/FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME BAGGY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
FRONT EDGES CLOSER. WITH THE RAIN TODAY AND SOME DRYING OCCURRING
ALOFT...THIS WILL INCREASE THE CONCERN FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AT LEAST 1 MILE FOG TONIGHT.
LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FOG TO
BECOME DENSE. IF THIS DRYING OCCURS ALOFT...THIS WOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR DENSE FOG AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. ALSO...THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS FAIRLY CLOSE...SO IT WON/T TAKE
MUCH COOLING TONIGHT TO GET THE FOG TO FORM. HAVE TWEAKED PRODUCTS
TOWARDS FOG TONIGHT. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY
CLOSE EYE ON TRENDS AND POSSIBLY ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF
CONDITIONS BECOME FAVORABLE.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY AND PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION. VERY NICE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OVER THE REGION WITH
THIS LOW...WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 250 MB JET STREAK
LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW IS
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OUT OF OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA LATE IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. WE WILL SEE RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OCCUR OVER AS A TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE REGION AND LOW DEEPENS OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE TRACK OF THE
LOW PLACES A WELL DEFINED DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SO
WILL WILL SEE A SWATH OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE LOW. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL TRACK FROM FAR
NORTHEAST IOWA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WOULD CENTER THE BAND ROUGHLY FROM CHARLES
CITY...TO LA CROSSE...TO NEILLSVILLE. ANY SHIFT IN THE LOW TRACK
WILL RESULT IN A SHIFT OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON FAR SOUTHWEST INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
FOR THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SEEING A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO...IF SURFACE
CAPE CAN BUILD IN THESE AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK
DURING THE LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
A POTENT TROUGH DIVES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR INTO THE REGION.
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DOWNRIGHT RAW FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 18 TO 25 MPH WITH GUST APPROACHING 40
MPH AT TIMES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE COOLEST AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES GO FROM AROUND 5 C FRIDAY MORNING TO NEGATIVE 3 C BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW SNOW FLAKES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COOLEST AIR. LOOKING AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THERE ARE TWO CONCERNS WITH THE SNOW POTENTIAL. 1...THERE
MAY NOT BE ICE ALOFT IN THE CLOUD TO GENERATE SNOW AND 2...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MAY BE JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR IT TO FALL AS DRIZZLE IF
SATURATION ISN/T DEEP ENOUGH...OR JUST PLAIN RAIN IF ITS A LITTLE
DEEPER. LOOKING AT THE COOLER AIR ALOFT WORKING IN FEEL THAT SNOW
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNLIKELY. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S. PLAN ON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH COOL NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE.
A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWER.
PLAN ON HIGHS ON SUNDAY REBOUNDING SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES COULD WARM SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE TROUGH EDGES EAST AND FLOW ALOFT TURNS ZONAL. HIGHS COULD WARM
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
EITHER REMAIN WELL NORTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON....THUS PLAN ON RAISING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. KLSE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR IN BOTH. MEANHWILE THE VISIBILITIES WILL
LIKELY BECOME VFR AT KRST...BUT THE CEILINGS WILL LIKELY STAY IN
THE MVFR RANGE.
FOR TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THURSDAY MORNING...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE KRST/KLSE WILL STAY MAINLY DRY. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE DENSE FOG
WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE WINDS BECOME
LIGHT BELOW 850 MB....SO NO PLANS TO PUSH IT ANY EARLIER THAN THEY
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TAFS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
115 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE
AREA. OTHERWISE THE INITIAL FOCUS OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS THE
FIRST BAND OF WAA PCPN PROGGED TO WORK INTO SOUTHWEST AND THEN WESTERN
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. AT 08Z THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD
RAIN WAS WORKING OVER WESTERN IOWA AND IS BEING LED BY A SHORT
WAVE AND APPEARS TO BE LAGGING BACK A BIT FROM LATEST GUIDANCE.
ANTICIPATE THIS NORTH TO SOUTH BAND TO WORK INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN
SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL LIKELY BE DRY OVER
EASTERN WISCONSIN TODAY BEFORE THIS BAND WORKS INTO THE AREA.
AFTER A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SHOWERS OVER MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS
THIS EVENING WITHIN THE WAA SECTOR...ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF
DIMINISHED PRECIPITATION LATER TONIGHT OVER WESTERN AREAS AND THEN
MOST LOCATIONS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AGAIN LATER THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
AS FAR AS THUNDER MENTION...PLENTY OF LIGHTNING BEING DETECTED
OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. WILL KEEP SOME THUNDER MENTION IN THE
FORECAST LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WILL FOCUS THE MENTION
WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
THE UPPER SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO BECOME
MORE INTERESTING IN EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN. SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE FROM EASTERN IOWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AROUND 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATED
A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS AT 06Z THURSDAY...RANGING AS FAR
NORTH AS IRON MOUNTAIN...MICHIGAN WHILE THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION
WAS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE FROM
OCONTO TO SHEBOYGAN. THIS COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND DEPICTING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER AND WINDY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WOULD SUGGEST WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. MAIN STORY
WILL BE COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. IF WE GET
A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN...MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER ADDING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AS MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE AROUND 7 C/KM. DID NOT ADD THEM FOR THE MOMENT AS SOME OF
THE DETAILS NEED TO BE WORKED OUT. UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS ON HOW QUICK COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...COLD
ENOUGH FOR IT TO SNOW. IF YOU LIKE SNOW...THE GFS IS MOST PROMISING
FOR A QUICKER CHANGE OVER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ACCUMULATION
OVER THE FAR NORTH. THE ECMWF WAS WARMER WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...THUS LEAVES SOME QUESTIONS IF SNOW WOULD FALL OR EVEN
ACCUMULATE. THE 00Z CANADIAN WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE GFS.
DID INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCE. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OFF THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S UP NORTH...AND ONLY INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTH. DID LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY...
NOT AS LOW AS THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST.
BEYOND SATURDAY NIGHT...COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCES
OF RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
CIGS WERE MAINLY MVFR ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME CLEARING BETWEEN LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE STATE AND THE CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. CIGS
MAY IMPROVE TO VFR AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PREVAILING SHOULD
BE MOSTLY MVFR. SHOWERS THAT MOVED INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLIER
IN THE DAY WERE MAKING SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS SO HAVE KEPT CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TAFS DRY UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND
LEFT THE EAST DRY UNTIL THIS EVENING. HRRR SUGGESTS A RELATIVELY
SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN WHILE THE NAM/GFS/SREF/EC ALL HANG ON TO
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR QUITE A BIT LONGER. RIGHT NOW THE
HRRR IS LOOKING BETTER BUT HAVE DECIDED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION AND KEEP THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AROUND FOR LONGER. 12Z
MOS GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND GFS SHOWED LOW VSBYS IN FOG AROUND
12Z THURSDAY SO HAVE TEMPO GROUP WITH 1/2SM FG AT THE TAF SITES.
BASED ON WHAT I SAW FROM THIS MORNINGS OBSERVATIONS THERE DID NOT
APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...SO DID NOT USE IT AS THE
PREVAILING CONDITION. HAVE LEFT SHOWERS WITHOUT THUNDER TONIGHT
BUT WENT WITH A PROB30 FOR THUNDER ON THURSDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR DEATHS
DOOR.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MG
MARINE.........ECKBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1139 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
.UPDATE...THIS AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
SIGNIFICANTLY REWORKED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THE WAVE ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY IS
INTERCEPTING THE BETTER MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND YET ANOTHER
WAVE OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TAKING ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION
QUICKLY NORTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...A SPLIT IS OCCURRING IN THE PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR
CONTINUES TO DO WELL WITH THIS EVOLUTION...SO FOLLOWED IT. THIS
RESULTED IN REDUCING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES QUICKLY DOWN INTO
THE 20 AND 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A BROAD MID-LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. WITHIN THIS LONG WAVE
TROUGH...A CLOSED LOW WAS MOVING NORTH OUT OF ND INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH WAS PUSHING EAST
ACROSS NEB/KS. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OUT OF THE
WAVE...EXTENDING N-S FROM IA INTO EASTERN KS/OK.
LOOK FOR THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION TODAY. CORRIDOR OF MODERATE 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WAVE EXPECTED TO
DRIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER AS WELL. 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 12-15C RANGE
AHEAD OF THE WAVE. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE 60S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA.
LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT THEN A TAPERING TREND LATE IN EVENING/OVERNIGHT
AS THE WAVE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
RAINFALL...WIND...POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW MIX ALL A CONCERN IN THE
LONG TERM.
AFTER SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE DRIVING SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
DEEPEN THIS LOW AND TAKE IT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. NAM/GFS INCREASES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INTO THE 1-
1.5 INCH RANGE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS GULF
MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. BROAD 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW THURSDAY WILL
DRIVE INCREASING SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE
DAY. THEN AS THE LOW PULLS ACROSS WI THURSDAY NIGHT...INCREASING 850-
500MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE/FOCUS MODERATE RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...PLAN ON NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS TOWARD UPPER MI.
COLD AIR ADVECTION/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TAKE PLACE FRIDAY BEHIND
THE DEPARTING/DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. MID-LEVEL LOW/PV-ADVECTION WILL
ALSO PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
AS HIGHS TOP OFF ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S. SO
OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE RAW/BLUSTERY DAY WILL BE ON TAP.
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE SHOWERS
LATE IN THE NIGHT/TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
TIME THERMAL PROFILE COOLS ENOUGH.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY DAY AS HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S. BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL ADD TO THE CHILL. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. A COUPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PRODUCE PERIODIC SHOWER
CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY...MODERATING PERHAPS A
COUPLE DEGREES BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014
THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
EITHER REMAIN WELL NORTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON....THUS PLAN ON RAISING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. KLSE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR IN BOTH. MEANHWILE THE VISIBILITIES WILL
LIKELY BECOME VFR AT KRST...BUT THE CEILINGS WILL LIKELY STAY IN
THE MVFR RANGE.
FOR TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THURSDAY MORNING...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE KRST/KLSE WILL STAY MAINLY DRY. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE DENSE FOG
WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE WINDS BECOME
LIGHT BELOW 850 MB....SO NO PLANS TO PUSH IT ANY EARLIER THAN THEY
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TAFS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK