Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 09/30/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
1018 PM PDT Sat Sep 27 2014
.Synopsis...
Cool weather with lingering showers, mainly over the Sierra
Nevada overnight and Sunday. Dry and warmer next week with
locally breezy north winds around mid week.
&&
Discussion...
Upper low is over western Nevada this evening with moisture
wrapping westward into Norcal. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms occurred over mainly the mountains during the late
afternoon/early evening. A lull in the activity is presently over
the area. The next band of precip rotating around the low over
northern Nevada will move over the Sierra towards morning per
latest HRRR guidance. Have update forecast to adjust for this
timing...increasing pops central/srn Sierra in the morning period
and introducing slight shower chances west through the southern
sac/nrn san joaquin valleys. Ended the Winter weather advisory an
hour early due to the large break in precip.
.Previous Discussion...
Wrap-around moisture beginning to enter our backdoor and spread SWwd
over the Siernev from Wrn NV as suggested by the higher resolution
models. Several tenths of an inch of QPF is forecast along the
deformation zone over the Siernev this afternoon into this evening.
This is expected to result in several inches of additional/ new snow
accumulations as indicated by the NAM/GFS snow accumulation progs
over the Siernev mainly S of I-80. Snow levels will be near/above
8 kft so only the higher passes south of HWY 50 will primarily be
affected. WSW was issued in the morning update for the first and
early season snowfall.
Marginal instability forecast over the Siernev this afternoon into
the evening with potential for isolated thunderstorms. Although
cloud cover will limit heating...moderate shear and strong cyclonic
flow along the deformation axis of the upper low could result in
isolated thunder over the crest from Plumas county Swd...although
better afternoon heating is likely over the foothills ahead of the
building cumulus.
The upper low continues Ewd on Sunday but the Sierra remains under
cyclonic flow and weak instability. Showers will again be a
possibility but should remain over the higher elevations as the low
moves east. After the embedded vort max or short wave rotates Swd
around the low Sun afternoon...cloud cover over the valley should
allow for a bit of warming.
A positively tilted ridge will move inland behind the low on Mon
ending the shower threat...clearing skies and begin a warming trend.
The ridge will be knocked down temporarily by another low pressure
trough but this time moving inland well north of the region. The
main impact of this system will be a slight cooling effect Tuesday
and a few clouds over the far Nrn portion of the CWA. JHM
.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)
High pressure ridging will dominate the extended forecast bring a
warming trend with dry weather through the end of the week. A weak
shortwave will pass by to the north on Wednesday, with breezy
north winds picking up over the Sacramento Valley and northern
mountains. Gusty northeast winds over mountain ridges and through
canyons expected early Thursday. Temperatures will be several
degrees above normal on Wednesday and rise to well above normal by
the end of the week. This means highs in the low to mid 90s for
the Valley and eastern Delta by Friday and Saturday, with
decreasing winds. The foothills should see some upper 80s for the end
of the week, with even the Sierra in the 60`s and 70s. The
prospects for any precipitation look quite low for next week. EK
&&
.Aviation...
VFR conditions for TAF sites overnight. Scattered showers
expected to continue over the Sierra tonight into Sunday. Sierra
snow over 7500 feet tonight, with local IFR/LIFR conditions.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1200 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014
WILL ALLOW FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
COLORADO AT NOON. HOWEVER...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATED THAT A
PORTION OF SOUTHWEST COLORADO WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN. MODEL INDICATED DECREASE IN PW FOR THIS AFTERNOON
APPEARS SUSPECT AND GIVEN INSTABILITY...OROGRAPHIC LIFT...AND
DYNAMIC COMPONENT ASSOCIATED WITH JET NOSING INTO THE AREA OPTED TO
EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 6 PM. AREAS AFFECTED INCLUDE
DURANGO AND PAGOSA SPRINGS AND SURROUNDING AREAS AND THE SOUTHWEST
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING...STRADDLING
BOTH SIDES OF THE UT/CO BORDER WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MIXED
IN. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WANED LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING AS A JET
STREAK CURVES BACK AROUND THE CLOSED LOW OVER NV. THIS STREAK IS
THE SUPPORT THAT`S CAUSING THE RAINSHOWERS. A STRONGER JET STREAK
IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF SAID LOW PRESSURE AND MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS...RAINSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH A FEW BEING LOCALLY
HEAVY BUT WITH THE LOW SLOWLY MOVING E AND PRECIP FOLLOWING
SUIT...FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS WILL LOWER SO WILL DROP ERN UT FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE. THE WATCH FOR WRN COLORADO
STILL STAY IN PLACE HOWEVER WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
CONTINUING TO TRACK EWRD. THE HRRR IS AGAIN PERFORMING WELL AND
IS INDICATING BY 0700L THAT PRECIP SHOULD BE ENDING FOR ERN UT
WHILE MUCH OF WRN COLORADO...EXCEPT THE NRN MTNS...WILL BE SEEING
SOME RAINFALL.
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT IR SATELLITE
SHOWS PLENTY OF DRY AIR OVER WRN/SRN UT THAT WILL MOVE INTO OUR
CWA TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN ESPECIALLY
HIGH AND THIS MIXED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL LEND ITSELF FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HALF- INCH SIZED HAIL OR
LARGER UNDER AND NEAR THE STRONGEST CELLS. HRRR ALSO SHOWING THIS
CONVECTION FORMING FROM ABOUT 3PM ONWARDS. AS YOU CAN IMAGINE...AN
ACTIVE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED.
SUNDAY NIGHT A SIGNIFICANT SPOKE OF ENERGY DIGS INTO THE BASE OF
THE LOW ELONGATING IT SOUTH TO NORTH. THE JET STREAK LIFTS NORTH
OF THIS AREA AND THE DRY SLOT LOWERS PRECIP WATER VALUES TO 0.25
SOUTH...0.5 INCH NORTH. THIS BRINGS A DIMINISHING OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHERN SPOKE ROTATES NE
WITH THE ASSOCIATED 80KT JET LIFTING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS IN
THE MORNING. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT UNDER THE JET SUPPORT
WILL PRODUCE SOME MORNING SHOWERS IN THE SW SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS IN
SPITE OF THE DRIER AIR. THE LOW OPENS AS IT LIFTS NE MONDAY
AFTERNOON PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR MAINLY OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014
SOME SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT IN ACTIVE NW FLOW WITH ONLY MARGINAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. 700MB TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR 0C MONDAY FOR
A SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN TO NEAR 9000 FT IN THE PARK RANGE. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION BELOW TIMBERLINE WILL MELT ON TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES
RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL.
THE JET STREAM WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE PACNW WEDNESDAY AND CARVE
OUT A RELATIVELY WEAK TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WED
EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SOME SNOWFALL FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS UP NORTH.
MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
SETS UP OVER THE WRN GREAT BASIN KEEPING US IN NW FLOW FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
SLOWLY WARMING UP TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1049 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO THIS
EVENING...THEN BECOME MORE LOCALIZED OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWERS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING PERIOD. AT
AREA AIRPORTS VFR WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY...
HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 KTS AND/OR SMALL HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH.
SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
WHILE ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS ON MONDAY THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MOST
VALLEY AREAS.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ019-022.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ023.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...TGR/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/TGR
AVIATION...EH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1049 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING...STRADDLING
BOTH SIDES OF THE UT/CO BORDER WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MIXED
IN. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WANED LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING AS A JET
STREAK CURVES BACK AROUND THE CLOSED LOW OVER NV. THIS STREAK IS
THE SUPPORT THAT`S CAUSING THE RAINSHOWERS. A STRONGER JET STREAK
IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF SAID LOW PRESSURE AND MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS...RAINSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH A FEW BEING LOCALLY
HEAVY BUT WITH THE LOW SLOWLY MOVING E AND PRECIP FOLLOWING
SUIT...FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS WILL LOWER SO WILL DROP ERN UT FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE. THE WATCH FOR WRN COLORADO
STILL STAY IN PLACE HOWEVER WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
CONTINUING TO TRACK EWRD. THE HRRR IS AGAIN PERFORMING WELL AND
IS INDICATING BY 0700L THAT PRECIP SHOULD BE ENDING FOR ERN UT
WHILE MUCH OF WRN COLORADO...EXCEPT THE NRN MTNS...WILL BE SEEING
SOME RAINFALL.
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT IR SATELLITE
SHOWS PLENTY OF DRY AIR OVER WRN/SRN UT THAT WILL MOVE INTO OUR
CWA TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN ESPECIALLY
HIGH AND THIS MIXED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL LEND ITSELF FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HALF- INCH SIZED HAIL OR
LARGER UNDER AND NEAR THE STRONGEST CELLS. HRRR ALSO SHOWING THIS
CONVECTION FORMING FROM ABOUT 3PM ONWARDS. AS YOU CAN IMAGINE...AN
ACTIVE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED.
SUNDAY NIGHT A SIGNIFICANT SPOKE OF ENERGY DIGS INTO THE BASE OF
THE LOW ELONGATING IT SOUTH TO NORTH. THE JET STREAK LIFTS NORTH
OF THIS AREA AND THE DRY SLOT LOWERS PRECIP WATER VALUES TO 0.25
SOUTH...0.5 INCH NORTH. THIS BRINGS A DIMINISHING OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHERN SPOKE ROTATES NE
WITH THE ASSOCIATED 80KT JET LIFTING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS IN
THE MORNING. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT UNDER THE JET SUPPORT
WILL PRODUCE SOME MORNING SHOWERS IN THE SW SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS IN
SPITE OF THE DRIER AIR. THE LOW OPENS AS IT LIFTS NE MONDAY
AFTERNOON PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR MAINLY OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014
SOME SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT IN ACTIVE NW FLOW WITH ONLY MARGINAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. 700MB TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR 0C MONDAY FOR
A SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN TO NEAR 9000 FT IN THE PARK RANGE. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION BELOW TIMBERLINE WILL MELT ON TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES
RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL.
THE JET STREAM WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE PACNW WEDNESDAY AND CARVE
OUT A RELATIVELY WEAK TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WED
EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SOME SNOWFALL FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS UP NORTH.
MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
SETS UP OVER THE WRN GREAT BASIN KEEPING US IN NW FLOW FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
SLOWLY WARMING UP TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1049 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO THIS
EVENING...THEN BECOME MORE LOCALIZED OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWERS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING PERIOD. AT
AREA AIRPORTS VFR WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY...
HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 KTS AND/OR SMALL HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH.
SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
WHILE ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS ON MONDAY THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MOST
VALLEY AREAS.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ001>003-006-007-
009-011-013-017>022.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/TGR
AVIATION...EH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
323 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING...STRADDLING
BOTH SIDES OF THE UT/CO BORDER WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MIXED
IN. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WANED LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING AS A JET
STREAK CURVES BACK AROUND THE CLOSED LOW OVER NV. THIS STREAK IS
THE SUPPORT THAT`S CAUSING THE RAINSHOWERS. A STRONGER JET STREAK
IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF SAID LOW PRESSURE AND MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS...RAINSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH A FEW BEING LOCALLY
HEAVY BUT WITH THE LOW SLOWLY MOVING E AND PRECIP FOLLOWING
SUIT...FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS WILL LOWER SO WILL DROP ERN UT FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE. THE WATCH FOR WRN COLORADO
STILL STAY IN PLACE HOWEVER WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
CONTINUING TO TRACK EWRD. THE HRRR IS AGAIN PERFORMING WELL AND
IS INDICATING BY 0700L THAT PRECIP SHOULD BE ENDING FOR ERN UT
WHILE MUCH OF WRN COLORADO...EXCEPT THE NRN MTNS...WILL BE SEEING
SOME RAINFALL.
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT IR SATELLITE
SHOWS PLENTY OF DRY AIR OVER WRN/SRN UT THAT WILL MOVE INTO OUR
CWA TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN ESPECIALLY
HIGH AND THIS MIXED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL LEND ITSELF FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HALF- INCH SIZED HAIL OR
LARGER UNDER AND NEAR THE STRONGEST CELLS. HRRR ALSO SHOWING THIS
CONVECTION FORMING FROM ABOUT 3PM ONWARDS. AS YOU CAN IMAGINE...AN
ACTIVE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED.
SUNDAY NIGHT A SIGNIFICANT SPOKE OF ENERGY DIGS INTO THE BASE OF
THE LOW ELONGATING IT SOUTH TO NORTH. THE JET STREAK LIFTS NORTH
OF THIS AREA AND THE DRY SLOT LOWERS PRECIP WATER VALUES TO 0.25
SOUTH...0.5 INCH NORTH. THIS BRINGS A DIMINISHING OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHERN SPOKE ROTATES NE
WITH THE ASSOCIATED 80KT JET LIFTING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS IN
THE MORNING. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT UNDER THE JET SUPPORT
WILL PRODUCE SOME MORNING SHOWERS IN THE SW SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS IN
SPITE OF THE DRIER AIR. THE LOW OPENS AS IT LIFTS NE MONDAY
AFTERNOON PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR MAINLY OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014
SOME SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT IN ACTIVE NW FLOW WITH ONLY MARGINAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. 700MB TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR 0C MONDAY FOR
A SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN TO NEAR 9000 FT IN THE PARK RANGE. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION BELOW TIMBERLINE WILL MELT ON TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES
RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL.
THE JET STREAM WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE PACNW WEDNESDAY AND CARVE
OUT A RELATIVELY WEAK TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WED
EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SOME SNOWFALL FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS UP NORTH.
MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
SETS UP OVER THE WRN GREAT BASIN KEEPING US IN NW FLOW FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
SLOWLY WARMING UP TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014
RAIN...RAINSHOWERS...AND EMBEDDED STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING CAUSING MVFR CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME THOUGH BY AND
LARGE...VFR WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY. MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 18Z WITH
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY REALLY GETTING GOING AFTER 21Z. SOME STORMS
WILL BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING
50MPH...POSSIBLY HIGHER...WITH HALF INCH SIZED HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.
SOME CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ001>003-006-007-
009-011-013-017>022.
UT...NONE
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/TGR
AVIATION...TGR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO
SEA WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS NEXT SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...THE BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN NJ. ANOTHER BAND IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN DELMARVA. ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
HOWEVER, DO NOT EXPECT THE PRECIP TO LAST TOO MUCH PAST 06Z AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST OF THE
REGION AT THAT TIME. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO LOW FOR DEW
POINTS. ADJUSTED THE DEW POINTS UP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ALSO, SINCE THE CLEARING LINE OF HIGH CLOUDS IS JUST WEST OF THE
CWA, EXPANDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FG ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER, STILL UNCERTAIN HOW LOW
VISIBILITIES WILL GO SINCE WINDS REMAIN AROUND 5 MPH AND MOSTLY
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT THIS HOUR.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH. SOUNDINGS
HAVE SHOWN ALL DAY A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-
LEVELS. EVEN THOUGH THE RADAR SHOWS SOME PRECIPITATION MOST OF IT
WILL BE VIRGA. HOWEVER THE RAP AND HRRR BRING IN SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (UNDER .05 INCHES) THIS EVENING ACROSS DELMARVA AND
SOUTH NJ. DID INCLUDE THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
FOR THESE AREAS. KEPT MANY WEATHER ELEMENTS INCLUDING LOWS NEAR
THE MET/MAV. THE MAV HAS BEEN TO DRY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALL
DAY AND DID NOT INCORPORATE THIS SET FOR DEWPOINTS. WE MAY SEE
SOME CLEARING AS WELL BY SUNRISE PERHAPS ALLOWING FOR A FEW HOUR
WINDOW FOR THE FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE QUICKLY ON ITS HEALS WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL SUPPORT MAY ALLOW FOR
THE GENERATION OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON FOCUSED NW
OF PHL. FOR TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE MAV/MET
GUIDANCE SETS. ECMWF 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD YIELD TO SURFACE
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80`S FOR PHL. HOWEVER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS KEPT HIGHS IN THE 70`S ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST FROM 12 HOURS
AGO. SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD BUT AMOUNTS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE ON THE RELATIVELY LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES
FOR THE TIME PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, THEN TRENDING TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.
RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING WITH NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN. HIGHEST POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE ON MONDAY, ONCE AGAIN BRINGING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.
USE WPC GUIDANCE PREDOMINATELY FOR DAYS 4 THOUGH 7. FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO THU, USED A 50/50 BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADJUSTED GFS
MAV MOS
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...A BROAD AREA OF BKN100 CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER
THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE CLEARING LINE IS NOT TOO FAR WEST OF KRDG
AND KABE. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
06Z. THERE REMAINS A SMALL THREAT OF BR DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, THE HIGHEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE KRDG
AND KMIV. HOWEVER, WITH WINDS STILL WITH A SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT, AND CLOUDS HANGING ON THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z, DO NOT
EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO GET BELOW MVFR AT THIS TIME.
ANY BR SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z TUESDAY LEAVING FEW TO SCT050, SO ANOTHER
VFR DAY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING FROM SOUTHERLY TO EASTERLY
TO NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10KT. THE
NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT RDG AND ABE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.
THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.
FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS THIS EVENING ARE AROUND TWO FEET ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL. TOMORROW WE WILL GRADUALLY SEE
SEAS BUILD AND WINDS INCREASE OUT OF NORTHEAST. SEAS MAY REACH FOUR
FEET TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS AS WELL.
CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THIS PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF
ON ISSUING ANY FORMAL HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS
CONDITIONS WILL JUST MEET LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS
NOT YET HIGH.
THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.
FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.
SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE,
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/HEAVENER
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
955 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...
.UPDATE...SFC DATA SHOWS NELY FLOW CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THOUGH PER JAX 12Z SOUNDING IT IS ONLY UP TO 1000
FT. DATA SUGGESTS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BE LOCATED STILL
ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES LEADING TO A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM OFFSHORE OF
THE SE U.S. COAST NEAR 31N80W. WARM ADVECTION ATOP THE BOUNDARY
HAS LEAD TO EROSION OF STRATUS ALONG THE COAST BUT TEMPORARY
IMPROVEMENT IN SKY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS CUMULUS FORM IN THE
MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS.
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG THE FL BIG
BEND AREA THAT IS SLOWLY SHIFTING NWD. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
THE SLOWLY LIFTING WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES
BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ESSENTIALLY KEPT
THE CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AND MAINTAINED LIKELY
CHANCES OVER INLAND AREAS. MAIN UPDATE CHANGE WAS TO CUT BACK ON
PRECIP CHANCES THIS MORNING A BIT BASED ON THE HRRR AND RADAR
TRENDS. INCLUDED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING FOR INLAND AREAS
AS THE FRONT...DAYTIME HEATING AND HIGH MOISTURE (PWAT 2.12 INCHES
ON THE SOUNDING) AND SLOW STORM MOTION SUGGEST HIGH RAIN RATES
(E.G. 2 INCHES IN 30 MINUTES) WILL BE LIKELY IN SOME STORMS.
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST SCATTERED EVENING CONVECTION ESPECIALLY OVER
THE INTERIOR BEFORE GRADUALLY WANING OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY
HELD IN CHECK BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND BELOW NORMAL AGAIN FOR
LATE SEP. HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 80 TO 85 EXPECTED...WITH SOME UPPER
80S POSSIBLE INLAND NE FL S OF LIVE OAK.
&&
.AVIATION...STRATUS LAYER ERODED AT CRG BUT CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE
THERE TODAY AROUND MVFR RANGE WITH OCNL VFR. OTHERWISE...STRATUS
IN THE IFR TO LOW END MVFR RANGE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
MORNING AND POSSIBLY EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH 16Z...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE ANTICIPATED
IN THE AFTN. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS AND TSTMS CHANCES INCREASING. BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS WILL BE
FOR GNV AND OCNL STORMS POSSIBLE THERE AROUND 19Z-23Z. LOW END
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW IN TSTMS BUT IFR TSTMS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...NE TO E WINDS NEAR 10-15 KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY THEN
BEGIN TO COME AROUND TO MORE E AND THEN SE TONIGHT. SEAS ARE MAINLY
IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE AND BASED ON OBS TWEAKED SEAS UP IN THE FCST
AND GRIDS. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY DUE TO LINGERING SEAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 85 71 83 69 / 50 50 70 60
SSI 81 72 80 72 / 40 40 70 70
JAX 85 72 84 71 / 50 50 70 60
SGJ 83 74 83 73 / 40 40 70 60
GNV 87 71 83 71 / 60 50 70 50
OCF 87 72 84 71 / 60 50 70 50
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHASHY/GUILLET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
606 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL PUSH INCREASING MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS. RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO CONTINUED RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY...AND PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST HAS
RESULTED IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES NORTH TO 1.9 INCHES
SOUTH. PWAT VALUES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE ALONG THE GULF. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS OFFSHORE AND A FEW WEAK RETURNS ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND CSRA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE CSRA
AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCES RAMPING UP TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD RESTRICT LOW
TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS VERY
CLOSE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY MOVE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN OFF TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. AS THE LOW
STRENGTHENS...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BECOME
MORE EASTERLY AND OFF THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THE LOW
IN THE GULF WILL ALSO BE SPREADING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
MEANWHILE ALOFT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA WILL
PUSH EASTWARD...ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY TO
SWING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH
THROUGH ON MONDAY...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THE UPPER SYSTEM TO
TAP AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AND EXPECT TO SEE PLENTY OF
RAINFALL DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS RAIN WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN SHOULD BE PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. WILL HOLD ONTO CATEGORICAL POPS MONDAY...THEN LIKELY POPS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN DRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT MAINLY SHOWERS AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH...WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DIURNAL WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL
EXPECTED...SO ONLY WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MORNING LOWS
ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE BACK IN THE 60S AGAIN. WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BOTH ALOFT ANT AT THE
SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
AT THIS TIME. A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BY FRIDAY...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE TAF PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WE MAINLY USED AN AVERAGE OF
THE HRRR AND GFS LAMP FOR THE TIMING OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS.
RAIN WILL LIKELY BECOME WIDESPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE NAM AND GFS MOS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH WINDS NORTHEAST 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
SHOULD REMAIN LOW WITH THE WARM SECTOR WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ALSO...THE MODELS INDICATE JUST WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BOISE ID
853 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...AREA RADARS AND SATIMGS SHOWED A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION EXTENDING THROUGHOUT IDAHO FROM AROUND WARM LAKE
THROUGH EAST OWYHEE COUNTY. HRRR AND TRENDS INDICATE THE ZONE OF
SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT BANNER SUMMIT BY MIDNIGHT. WHILE IT IS HOLDING
TOGETHER FOR NOW IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE MAGIC
VALLEY AROUND MIDNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS OREGON WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT AND MOSTLY AFTER
9 AM FOR SW IDAHO. WINDS COULD FLIRT WITH ADVY SPEEDS FOR THE
MAGIC VALLEY TUESDAY. TRANSIENT DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE
OREGON TUESDAY NIGHT AND SW IDAHO WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING ALONG WITH VERY MOIST SOILS FROM THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS OF RAIN SO AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY WHERE WINDS DROP OFF TO
LIGHT 5 MPH OR LESS EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD LOW VFR CEILINGS AND LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS
WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KMYL TO
KMOU THROUGH 06Z...IMPROVING AFTERWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
REDEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS BAKER
COUNTY AND SW IDAHO...EXCEPT NUMEROUS SHOWERS KMYL AREA. ISOLATED
MFVR CEILINGS... ESPECIALLY NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT SHOULD PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT. FRONT WILL
REACH KBKE AND KBNO AROUND 12Z THEN KBOI AROUND 15Z AND KTWF
AROUND 17Z. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30
KTS FROM KBOI TO KTWF TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NW WINDS
ALOFT TO 30 KTS AT 10K FEET MSL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT HELPED BRING SO MUCH RAIN TO THE REGION THE PAST TWO DAYS
WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED
IN FAST NW FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE IT/S PLACE AND MOVE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION AND
CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. ON TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING NW WINDS WILL GUST 20-30 MPH IN MOST AREAS...AND 30-40 MPH
IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE COOL...WITH HIGHS
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT TUE NIGHT
AND ADDITIONAL COOL AIR WILL BE BROUGHT INTO THE AREA ON CONTINUED
NW FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WED WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF TUE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HELD UP ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT OWING TO
STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND LOTS OF CLOUD COVER. TUE NIGHT
LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER LIGHTER
WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE FROM
THE WEST COAST WILL EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY
BEGINNING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE AREA BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY
BUT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
SATURDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....TL
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JS/AB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
603 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY INTO TOMORROW WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MEANWHILE, A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY THEN SHIFT CLOSER TO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE RISE AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO ALLOW
EVEN FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO ATMOSPHERIC MIXING. HIGHS TODAY
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH LOWS AROUND
60 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT EXITS THE ROCKIES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHES WESTERN KANSAS EARLY MONDAY A SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS BY LATE DAY AS GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 25
TO 30 MPH RANGE. USING THE 00Z NAM AS A GUIDE IT CURRENTLY APPEARS
THE SURFACE TROUGH, BETTER INSTABILITY, AND 0-6KM SHEAR FROM 21Z
TO 03Z WILL BE NEAR OR WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. CONVECTION
THEN SPREADS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST. A FEW
STORMS EARLY IN THE EVENT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER STILL APPEARS
TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE GIVEN THE CAPE AND 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES AT 00Z TUESDAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL
BEING THE MAIN HAZARD.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
NEBRASKA. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS
FORECAST TO BE LOCATED FROM ROUGHLY HAYS TO MEADE WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STILL PRESENT EAST OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY. BY LATE
TUESDAY CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO NEAR 1500 J/KG OR GREATER NEAR AND
EAST OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 40
KNOTS. IN ADDITION 850MB THTA-E ADVECTION IMPROVES NEAR THE NOSE
OF AN 850MB JET IN OR NEAR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY EVENING.
AT THIS TIME THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER SOME ON WHERE THIS AXIS OF
BETTER INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL BE LATE TUESDAY WITH THE NAM
FURTHER WEST. AS A RESULT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON WHERE THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED TUESDAY NIGHT SO WILL STAY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH APPEARS TO BE A NICE
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES MID WEEK. AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
THIS NEXT SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION TO ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SOME COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED LATE WEEK.
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY CURRENTLY
APPEARS TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014
06Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND LATEST HRRR INDICATING THE CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE 4000 TO 8000FT AGL LEVEL TODAY. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE 15 TO NEAR
20 KNOT RANGE. THE STRONGER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AT GCK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 84 60 84 59 / 0 0 0 50
GCK 83 60 83 57 / 0 0 20 70
EHA 81 59 82 56 / 0 0 50 60
LBL 84 60 84 59 / 0 0 20 70
HYS 84 60 84 60 / 0 0 10 60
P28 86 61 87 63 / 0 0 0 40
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
150 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 603 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
...ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY TODAY...AND QUITE LIKELY THE LAST
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES THIS HIGH FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR...
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS...STRONG RIDGE THAT WAS
EXTENDING INTO NRN ONTARIO IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY SHORTWAVE TROF
THAT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS TROF IS SUPPORTING
A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SE ND TO JUST S OF
JAMES BAY. JUST BEHIND FRONT...TEMPS QUICKLY FALL OFF INTO THE 40S
AND 30S...GIVING AN IDEA OF THE DRAMATICALLY COLDER CONDITIONS THAT
WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA FOR MON. MID LEVEL LOW THAT WAS CENTERED
ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER 24 HRS AGO HAS MOVED LITTLE...NOW OVER IA.
SCT/BKN MAINLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS TO THE NE OF THIS FEATURE HAVE
HELPED TO KEEP RADIATION FOG A LITTLE LESS WIDESPREAD AND LESS DENSE
EARLY THIS MORNING.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMP PROFILE FROM YESTERDAY...
SO LARGELY UTILIZED YESTERDAYS MAX TEMPS AS A BASIS FOR TODAYS MAX
TEMPS. TEMP RISE THIS MORNING SHOULD ALSO FOLLOW A SIMILAR DIURNAL
CURVE TO WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY MORNING. PRETTY GOOD CHC RECORD
HIGH OF 77F FOR NWS KMQT SITE WILL FALL TODAY. SHARP COLD FRONT TO
THE N WILL DRIFT S TODAY AND SHOULD REACH THE KEWEENAW LATE IN THE
AFTN. AS IS CURRENTLY NOTED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PCPN WILL
CONTINUE TO OCCUR MOSTLY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AS
NICE FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PCPN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SFC FRONT.
THAT SAID...WEAK PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF FRONT WILL ALLOW LAKE
BREEZES TO DEVELOP TODAY. WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MLCAPE...LAKE
BREEZE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO KICK OFF ISOLD SHRA THIS AFTN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA. MOST HIGH RES MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS POTENTIAL.
SFC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT S TONIGHT WITH PCPN REMAINING
MOSTLY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...SUPPORTED BY
FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. TRAILING SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER SCNTRL CANADA WILL DIG INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
MON. WITH BEST OVERLAP OF FGEN AND DEEP LAYER FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE
PER QVECTORS PASSING JUST N AND E OF FCST AREA...HEAVIER/STEADIER
SHRA/RA SHOULD PASS N AND E OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...DECENT FORCING
STILL SUPPORTS LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS SPREADING SE TO THE
KEWEENAW AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND TO WRN AND NRN UPPER MI BY 12Z
MON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
MONDAY WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FOR UPPER
MICHIGAN...AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT A BAND OF
SHOWERS TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT BEFORE SINKING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY EVENING.
EVEN AS A BULK OF THE RAIN HAS SHIFTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THOSE FAVORED BY
NORTH-NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS. IN ADDITION...WITH 900MB TEMPS
AROUND -1C AND LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPS BETWEEN 6-12C WOULD EXPECT AT
LEAST SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR THE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS RUNNING AROUND 3-3.5KFT DON/T EXPECT THE RAIN TO
BE TOO HEAVY...BUT ENOUGH TO LEAD TO A PERSISTANT LIGHT RAIN. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW LIKELY TO DEFINITE POPS IN THE FAVORED WIND
DIRECTIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND AT LEAST CHANCES ELSEWHERE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY. MODELS THEN SHOWING INVERSION HEIGHTS
FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT UNDER THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (HIGH CENTERED IN NORTHEAST ONTARIO) MOVING INTO
THE AREA. THUS...WILL SHOW DECREASING POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE RAIN WITH STIFF NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
(15-25KTS) AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S (30-35
DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS AFTERNOON) OVER THE NORTH HALF WILL MAKE
FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT DAY THAN WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
AS THE U.P. FINALLY STARTS TO BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS FROM MONDAY/S
SYSTEM...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE NEXT PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THAT PERIOD. THE FIRST WAVE FROM THAT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA FROM A LOW NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG. WILL SHOW
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) RUNNING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS THIS COLD
FRONT IS SLOWLY WORKING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL POTENTIALLY LEAD TO
THE INTENSIFICATION OF A LOW IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS AS THIS LOW
MOVES THROUGH...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE STRENGTH IS LIMITED DUE
TO THE VARYING SOLUTIONS SHOWN IN THE MODELS (NOT UNEXPECTED WITH
UPSTREAM PHASING OF STRONG SHORTWAVES). THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE NOT MUCH OF A HELP WITH AROUND HALF OF THEM NOT SHOWING
A LOW RIDING UP THE COLD FRONT. WITH 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS AT LEAST
SIMILAR IN THEIR IDEAS (ALTHOUGH GFS IS MUCH SLOWER IN DEPARTING THE
LOW)...WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR NOW FOR POPS (CHANCE/LIKELY) AND
WIND (GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30KTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT) FORECAST.
LATE ARRIVING 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND JUST KEEPING A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. BASED OFF
THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THAT DOESN/T SEEM TO UNREASONABLE.
SATURDAY SHOULD SEE A DIMINISHING OF BOTH OF THOSE AS THE LOW PULLS
OUT OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW AHEAD OF A
SHARP COLD FRONT DROPPING S THRU NRN ONTARIO. LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN COULD TRIGGER ISOLD -SHRA IN CNTRL UPPER
MI...BUT POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW FOR KSAW TO BE AFFECTED BY A -SHRA IF
IN FACT SOME DO DEVELOP. SO...NO MENTION WAS INCLUDED IN FCST. AS
THE COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...EXPECT ALL TERMINALS
TO FALL ABRUPTLY TO IFR/LIFR. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AT KCMX
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS WINDS DIRECTIONS ARE LESS FAVORABLE FOR
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT KIWD AND KSAW ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 603 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
SHARP COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NRN ONTARIO WILL DROP S...PASSING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WITH A WEAK PRES
GRADIENT AHEAD OF FRONT...WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE
TODAY...MOSTLY UNDER 20KT. ON THE FLIP SIDE...DRAMATIC CHANGES WILL
OCCUR AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINED
WITH POST FRONTAL PRES RISES WILL RESULT IN N TO NE WINDS OF 20-30KT
ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WINDS
WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH MON AFTN AND NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER NRN ONTARIO. WINDS UNDER 20KT WILL BE THE RULE TUE THRU THU.
HOWEVER...AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME ON WED BTWN DEPARTING HIGH
PRES AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE
STRONGER ON WED...MAINLY OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOKING FARTHER
OUT...THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A STRENGTHENING FALL STORM SYSTEM
WILL LIFT THRU THE UPPER LAKES LATE WEEK...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
742 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 603 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
...ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY TODAY...AND QUITE LIKELY THE LAST
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES THIS HIGH FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR...
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS...STRONG RIDGE THAT WAS
EXTENDING INTO NRN ONTARIO IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY SHORTWAVE TROF
THAT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS TROF IS SUPPORTING
A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SE ND TO JUST S OF
JAMES BAY. JUST BEHIND FRONT...TEMPS QUICKLY FALL OFF INTO THE 40S
AND 30S...GIVING AN IDEA OF THE DRAMATICALLY COLDER CONDITIONS THAT
WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA FOR MON. MID LEVEL LOW THAT WAS CENTERED
ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER 24 HRS AGO HAS MOVED LITTLE...NOW OVER IA.
SCT/BKN MAINLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS TO THE NE OF THIS FEATURE HAVE
HELPED TO KEEP RADIATION FOG A LITTLE LESS WIDESPREAD AND LESS DENSE
EARLY THIS MORNING.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMP PROFILE FROM YESTERDAY...
SO LARGELY UTILIZED YESTERDAYS MAX TEMPS AS A BASIS FOR TODAYS MAX
TEMPS. TEMP RISE THIS MORNING SHOULD ALSO FOLLOW A SIMILAR DIURNAL
CURVE TO WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY MORNING. PRETTY GOOD CHC RECORD
HIGH OF 77F FOR NWS KMQT SITE WILL FALL TODAY. SHARP COLD FRONT TO
THE N WILL DRIFT S TODAY AND SHOULD REACH THE KEWEENAW LATE IN THE
AFTN. AS IS CURRENTLY NOTED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PCPN WILL
CONTINUE TO OCCUR MOSTLY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AS
NICE FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PCPN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SFC FRONT.
THAT SAID...WEAK PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF FRONT WILL ALLOW LAKE
BREEZES TO DEVELOP TODAY. WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MLCAPE...LAKE
BREEZE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO KICK OFF ISOLD SHRA THIS AFTN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA. MOST HIGH RES MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS POTENTIAL.
SFC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT S TONIGHT WITH PCPN REMAINING
MOSTLY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...SUPPORTED BY
FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. TRAILING SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER SCNTRL CANADA WILL DIG INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
MON. WITH BEST OVERLAP OF FGEN AND DEEP LAYER FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE
PER QVECTORS PASSING JUST N AND E OF FCST AREA...HEAVIER/STEADIER
SHRA/RA SHOULD PASS N AND E OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...DECENT FORCING
STILL SUPPORTS LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS SPREADING SE TO THE
KEWEENAW AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND TO WRN AND NRN UPPER MI BY 12Z
MON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
MONDAY WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FOR UPPER
MICHIGAN...AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT A BAND OF
SHOWERS TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT BEFORE SINKING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY EVENING.
EVEN AS A BULK OF THE RAIN HAS SHIFTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THOSE FAVORED BY
NORTH-NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS. IN ADDITION...WITH 900MB TEMPS
AROUND -1C AND LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPS BETWEEN 6-12C WOULD EXPECT AT
LEAST SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR THE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS RUNNING AROUND 3-3.5KFT DON/T EXPECT THE RAIN TO
BE TOO HEAVY...BUT ENOUGH TO LEAD TO A PERSISTANT LIGHT RAIN. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW LIKELY TO DEFINITE POPS IN THE FAVORED WIND
DIRECTIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND AT LEAST CHANCES ELSEWHERE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY. MODELS THEN SHOWING INVERSION HEIGHTS
FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT UNDER THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (HIGH CENTERED IN NORTHEAST ONTARIO) MOVING INTO
THE AREA. THUS...WILL SHOW DECREASING POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE RAIN WITH STIFF NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
(15-25KTS) AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S (30-35
DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS AFTERNOON) OVER THE NORTH HALF WILL MAKE
FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT DAY THAN WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
AS THE U.P. FINALLY STARTS TO BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS FROM MONDAY/S
SYSTEM...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE NEXT PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THAT PERIOD. THE FIRST WAVE FROM THAT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA FROM A LOW NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG. WILL SHOW
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) RUNNING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS THIS COLD
FRONT IS SLOWLY WORKING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL POTENTIALLY LEAD TO
THE INTENSIFICATION OF A LOW IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS AS THIS LOW
MOVES THROUGH...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE STRENGTH IS LIMITED DUE
TO THE VARYING SOLUTIONS SHOWN IN THE MODELS (NOT UNEXPECTED WITH
UPSTREAM PHASING OF STRONG SHORTWAVES). THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE NOT MUCH OF A HELP WITH AROUND HALF OF THEM NOT SHOWING
A LOW RIDING UP THE COLD FRONT. WITH 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS AT LEAST
SIMILAR IN THEIR IDEAS (ALTHOUGH GFS IS MUCH SLOWER IN DEPARTING THE
LOW)...WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR NOW FOR POPS (CHANCE/LIKELY) AND
WIND (GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30KTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT) FORECAST.
LATE ARRIVING 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND JUST KEEPING A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. BASED OFF
THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THAT DOESN/T SEEM TO UNREASONABLE.
SATURDAY SHOULD SEE A DIMINISHING OF BOTH OF THOSE AS THE LOW PULLS
OUT OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW AHEAD OF A
SHARP COLD FRONT DROPPING S THRU NRN ONTARIO. LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN COULD TRIGGER ISOLD -SHRA IN CNTRL UPPER
MI...BUT POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW FOR KSAW TO BE AFFECTED BY A -SHRA IF
IN FACT SOME DO DEVELOP. SO...NO MENTION WAS INCLUDED IN FCST. AS
THE COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...EXPECT ALL TERMINALS
TO FALL ABRUPTLY TO IFR/LIFR. -SHRA/-RA WILL SPREAD S BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS WELL WITH KCMX MOSTLY LIKELY TO SEE PCPN. BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PCPN AT KIWD/KSAW WILL OCCUR NEAR THE END OR JUST
BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 603 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
SHARP COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NRN ONTARIO WILL DROP S...PASSING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WITH A WEAK PRES
GRADIENT AHEAD OF FRONT...WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE
TODAY...MOSTLY UNDER 20KT. ON THE FLIP SIDE...DRAMATIC CHANGES WILL
OCCUR AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINED
WITH POST FRONTAL PRES RISES WILL RESULT IN N TO NE WINDS OF 20-30KT
ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WINDS
WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH MON AFTN AND NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER NRN ONTARIO. WINDS UNDER 20KT WILL BE THE RULE TUE THRU THU.
HOWEVER...AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME ON WED BTWN DEPARTING HIGH
PRES AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE
STRONGER ON WED...MAINLY OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOKING FARTHER
OUT...THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A STRENGTHENING FALL STORM SYSTEM
WILL LIFT THRU THE UPPER LAKES LATE WEEK...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
604 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 603 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
...ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY TODAY...AND QUITE LIKELY THE LAST
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES THIS HIGH FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR...
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS...STRONG RIDGE THAT WAS
EXTENDING INTO NRN ONTARIO IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY SHORTWAVE TROF
THAT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS TROF IS SUPPORTING
A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SE ND TO JUST S OF
JAMES BAY. JUST BEHIND FRONT...TEMPS QUICKLY FALL OFF INTO THE 40S
AND 30S...GIVING AN IDEA OF THE DRAMATICALLY COLDER CONDITIONS THAT
WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA FOR MON. MID LEVEL LOW THAT WAS CENTERED
ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER 24 HRS AGO HAS MOVED LITTLE...NOW OVER IA.
SCT/BKN MAINLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS TO THE NE OF THIS FEATURE HAVE
HELPED TO KEEP RADIATION FOG A LITTLE LESS WIDESPREAD AND LESS DENSE
EARLY THIS MORNING.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMP PROFILE FROM YESTERDAY...
SO LARGELY UTILIZED YESTERDAYS MAX TEMPS AS A BASIS FOR TODAYS MAX
TEMPS. TEMP RISE THIS MORNING SHOULD ALSO FOLLOW A SIMILAR DIURNAL
CURVE TO WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY MORNING. PRETTY GOOD CHC RECORD
HIGH OF 77F FOR NWS KMQT SITE WILL FALL TODAY. SHARP COLD FRONT TO
THE N WILL DRIFT S TODAY AND SHOULD REACH THE KEWEENAW LATE IN THE
AFTN. AS IS CURRENTLY NOTED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PCPN WILL
CONTINUE TO OCCUR MOSTLY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AS
NICE FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PCPN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SFC FRONT.
THAT SAID...WEAK PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF FRONT WILL ALLOW LAKE
BREEZES TO DEVELOP TODAY. WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MLCAPE...LAKE
BREEZE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO KICK OFF ISOLD SHRA THIS AFTN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA. MOST HIGH RES MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS POTENTIAL.
SFC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT S TONIGHT WITH PCPN REMAINING
MOSTLY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...SUPPORTED BY
FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. TRAILING SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER SCNTRL CANADA WILL DIG INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
MON. WITH BEST OVERLAP OF FGEN AND DEEP LAYER FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE
PER QVECTORS PASSING JUST N AND E OF FCST AREA...HEAVIER/STEADIER
SHRA/RA SHOULD PASS N AND E OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...DECENT FORCING
STILL SUPPORTS LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS SPREADING SE TO THE
KEWEENAW AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND TO WRN AND NRN UPPER MI BY 12Z
MON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
MONDAY WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FOR UPPER
MICHIGAN...AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT A BAND OF
SHOWERS TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT BEFORE SINKING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY EVENING.
EVEN AS A BULK OF THE RAIN HAS SHIFTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THOSE FAVORED BY
NORTH-NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS. IN ADDITION...WITH 900MB TEMPS
AROUND -1C AND LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPS BETWEEN 6-12C WOULD EXPECT AT
LEAST SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR THE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS RUNNING AROUND 3-3.5KFT DON/T EXPECT THE RAIN TO
BE TOO HEAVY...BUT ENOUGH TO LEAD TO A PERSISTANT LIGHT RAIN. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW LIKELY TO DEFINITE POPS IN THE FAVORED WIND
DIRECTIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND AT LEAST CHANCES ELSEWHERE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY. MODELS THEN SHOWING INVERSION HEIGHTS
FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT UNDER THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (HIGH CENTERED IN NORTHEAST ONTARIO) MOVING INTO
THE AREA. THUS...WILL SHOW DECREASING POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE RAIN WITH STIFF NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
(15-25KTS) AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S (30-35
DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS AFTERNOON) OVER THE NORTH HALF WILL MAKE
FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT DAY THAN WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
AS THE U.P. FINALLY STARTS TO BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS FROM MONDAY/S
SYSTEM...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE NEXT PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THAT PERIOD. THE FIRST WAVE FROM THAT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA FROM A LOW NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG. WILL SHOW
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) RUNNING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS THIS COLD
FRONT IS SLOWLY WORKING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL POTENTIALLY LEAD TO
THE INTENSIFICATION OF A LOW IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS AS THIS LOW
MOVES THROUGH...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE STRENGTH IS LIMITED DUE
TO THE VARYING SOLUTIONS SHOWN IN THE MODELS (NOT UNEXPECTED WITH
UPSTREAM PHASING OF STRONG SHORTWAVES). THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE NOT MUCH OF A HELP WITH AROUND HALF OF THEM NOT SHOWING
A LOW RIDING UP THE COLD FRONT. WITH 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS AT LEAST
SIMILAR IN THEIR IDEAS (ALTHOUGH GFS IS MUCH SLOWER IN DEPARTING THE
LOW)...WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR NOW FOR POPS (CHANCE/LIKELY) AND
WIND (GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30KTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT) FORECAST.
LATE ARRIVING 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND JUST KEEPING A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. BASED OFF
THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THAT DOESN/T SEEM TO UNREASONABLE.
SATURDAY SHOULD SEE A DIMINISHING OF BOTH OF THOSE AS THE LOW PULLS
OUT OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW UNTIL
THIS EVENING. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...SHALLOW
RADIATION FOG WILL DEVELOP AT NIGHT AND AFFECT KSAW. LOW-LEVEL WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY COMPONENT...SO AT THIS
POINT...NOT ANTICIPATING KSAW TO DROP BLO MVFR TOWARD DAYBREAK. A
COLD FRONT BOOSTED BY THE LAKE BREEZE WILL BRING VEERING WINDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AT CMX AND THIS EVENING AT SAW AND IWD. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT WILL MOVE IN WITH LOWER MVFR
CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. SOME SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON ITS IMPACT AT SAW IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 603 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
SHARP COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NRN ONTARIO WILL DROP S...PASSING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WITH A WEAK PRES
GRADIENT AHEAD OF FRONT...WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE
TODAY...MOSTLY UNDER 20KT. ON THE FLIP SIDE...DRAMATIC CHANGES WILL
OCCUR AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINED
WITH POST FRONTAL PRES RISES WILL RESULT IN N TO NE WINDS OF 20-30KT
ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WINDS
WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH MON AFTN AND NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER NRN ONTARIO. WINDS UNDER 20KT WILL BE THE RULE TUE THRU THU.
HOWEVER...AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME ON WED BTWN DEPARTING HIGH
PRES AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE
STRONGER ON WED...MAINLY OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOKING FARTHER
OUT...THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A STRENGTHENING FALL STORM SYSTEM
WILL LIFT THRU THE UPPER LAKES LATE WEEK...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
327 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014
...ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IN STORE FOR SUNDAY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A STRONG RIDGE OVER MUCH
OF THE E HALF OF THE CONUS. 585-588 DECAMETER 5H HIGHS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES HAVE RESULTED IN INLAND HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
ANOTHER QUIET/CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER
THAN SATURDAY MORNINGS MINS DUE TO SOME INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER. EXPECT MORE SHALLOW FOG FORMATION MAINLY WELL INLAND FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR. DOWNSLOPING SOUTHERLY WIND AND ASSOC MIXING SHOULD
GENERALLY PROHIBIT FOG FORMATION NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
EXPECT ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY ON SUNDAY. MIXING 850 MB OF
13-14C TO SFC SHOULD AGAIN YIELD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S. ONSHORE SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS
AROUND 70S ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE. KEPT IN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SHRA OVER THE NCNTRL FCST AREA WHERE MODELS HINT THAT DEVELOPMENT OF
LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE BREEZE COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISOLD
CONVECTION. MODIFIED NAM SOUNDINGS FOR 78/58 YIELD SBCAPE 200-300
J/KG WITH MINIMAL CIN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
MONDAY WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FOR UPPER
MICHIGAN...AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT A BAND OF
SHOWERS TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT BEFORE SINKING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY EVENING.
EVEN AS A BULK OF THE RAIN HAS SHIFTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THOSE FAVORED BY
NORTH-NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS. IN ADDITION...WITH 900MB TEMPS
AROUND -1C AND LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPS BETWEEN 6-12C WOULD EXPECT AT
LEAST SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR THE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS RUNNING AROUND 3-3.5KFT DON/T EXPECT THE RAIN TO
BE TOO HEAVY...BUT ENOUGH TO LEAD TO A PERSISTANT LIGHT RAIN. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW LIKELY TO DEFINITE POPS IN THE FAVORED WIND
DIRECTIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND AT LEAST CHANCES ELSEWHERE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY. MODELS THEN SHOWING INVERSION HEIGHTS
FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT UNDER THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (HIGH CENTERED IN NORTHEAST ONTARIO) MOVING INTO
THE AREA. THUS...WILL SHOW DECREASING POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE RAIN WITH STIFF NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
(15-25KTS) AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S (30-35
DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS AFTERNOON) OVER THE NORTH HALF WILL MAKE
FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT DAY THAN WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
AS THE U.P. FINALLY STARTS TO BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS FROM MONDAY/S
SYSTEM...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE NEXT PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THAT PERIOD. THE FIRST WAVE FROM THAT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA FROM A LOW NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG. WILL SHOW
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) RUNNING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS THIS COLD
FRONT IS SLOWLY WORKING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL POTENTIALLY LEAD TO
THE INTENSIFICATION OF A LOW IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS AS THIS LOW
MOVES THROUGH...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE STRENGTH IS LIMITED DUE
TO THE VARYING SOLUTIONS SHOWN IN THE MODELS (NOT UNEXPECTED WITH
UPSTREAM PHASING OF STRONG SHORTWAVES). THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE NOT MUCH OF A HELP WITH AROUND HALF OF THEM NOT SHOWING
A LOW RIDING UP THE COLD FRONT. WITH 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS AT LEAST
SIMILAR IN THEIR IDEAS (ALTHOUGH GFS IS MUCH SLOWER IN DEPARTING THE
LOW)...WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR NOW FOR POPS (CHANCE/LIKELY) AND
WIND (GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30KTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT) FORECAST.
LATE ARRIVING 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND JUST KEEPING A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. BASED OFF
THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THAT DOESN/T SEEM TO UNREASONABLE.
SATURDAY SHOULD SEE A DIMINISHING OF BOTH OF THOSE AS THE LOW PULLS
OUT OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW UNTIL
THIS EVENING. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...SHALLOW
RADIATION FOG WILL DEVELOP AT NIGHT AND AFFECT KSAW. LOW-LEVEL WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY COMPONENT...SO AT THIS
POINT...NOT ANTICIPATING KSAW TO DROP BLO MVFR TOWARD DAYBREAK. A
COLD FRONT BOOSTED BY THE LAKE BREEZE WILL BRING VEERING WINDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AT CMX AND THIS EVENING AT SAW AND IWD. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT WILL MOVE IN WITH LOWER MVFR
CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. SOME SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON ITS IMPACT AT SAW IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014
LIGHT WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN CHANGES ARE EXPECTED BY
MONDAY MORNING AS A FRONT WORKS NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS LK SUPERIOR.
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND QUICKLY RAMP UP TO 25-30
KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONGER WINDS CONTINUING INTO
MIDDAY MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST OVER EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR. WHILE THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...AN EXTENDED NW GALE EVENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOMETIME FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH MORE MOIST AIR BEGINNING TO WORK NORTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVER MAINLY NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
124 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014
...ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IN STORE FOR SUNDAY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A STRONG RIDGE OVER MUCH
OF THE E HALF OF THE CONUS. 585-588 DECAMETER 5H HIGHS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES HAVE RESULTED IN INLAND HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
ANOTHER QUIET/CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER
THAN SATURDAY MORNINGS MINS DUE TO SOME INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER. EXPECT MORE SHALLOW FOG FORMATION MAINLY WELL INLAND FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR. DOWNSLOPING SOUTHERLY WIND AND ASSOC MIXING SHOULD
GENERALLY PROHIBIT FOG FORMATION NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
EXPECT ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY ON SUNDAY. MIXING 850 MB OF
13-14C TO SFC SHOULD AGAIN YIELD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S. ONSHORE SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS
AROUND 70S ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE. KEPT IN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SHRA OVER THE NCNTRL FCST AREA WHERE MODELS HINT THAT DEVELOPMENT OF
LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE BREEZE COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISOLD
CONVECTION. MODIFIED NAM SOUNDINGS FOR 78/58 YIELD SBCAPE 200-300
J/KG WITH MINIMAL CIN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014
A MORE ACTIVE AND TYPICAL FALL PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MANITOBA WILL BE
INTERACTING WITH A RESIDUAL SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM
NORTH DAKOTA TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY EVENING. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAD BEEN RATHER INCONSISTENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF THE FRONT OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...BUT SOME OF THE 12Z RUNS
TODAY APPEAR TO BE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. THE RECENT NAM AND GEM
RUNS ARE ADVERTISING A SHARPER TROUGH AXIS AND QUICKER PASSAGE MORE
IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. HAD ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT GUIDANCE WAS TRENDING SLOWER WITH YESTERDAYS RUNS...BUT AM
NOW MORE CONVINCED OF THE FASTER SOLUTION GIVEN THE ECMWF
PERSISTENCE. FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME LOOKS TO BE AROUND 00Z MONDAY
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
NIGHT...CLEARING THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CWA SHORTLY AFTER 12Z
MONDAY.
ACTIVE LOW-LEVEL FGEN COMBINED WITH THE SHARP TROUGH AXIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DECENT PRECIP COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT. THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR
TO MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WILL BE LESSENING UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AS
THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE OF THE JET SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS WILL KEEP THE
BEST COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI. ONLY MADE
SOME SMALL CHANGES TO THE POPS FOR MONDAY...KEEPING LIKELY POPS
CONFINED TO MAINLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. IN THE MORNING AND
ALONG NE UPSLOPE AREAS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BLUSTERY NE WINDS WILL
COMMENCE BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH HALF. HIGHS TEMPS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE CWA....WITH TEMPS NORTHWEST
IN THE 40S AND SOUTHEST IN THE 50S BY THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL PRECIP WILL CLEAR
THE CWA BY MONDAY EVENING WHILE MID-LEVEL RIDHING SHIFT ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC. THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT GIVEN PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DECENT
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. CONTINUED NE UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH THE
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN LINGER SHOWERS/DRIZZLE CENTRAL AND EAST
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOW LONG IT TAKES TO RID
THESE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY IS IN QUESTION. MORNING INVERSION
HEIGHTS OF 2-3KFT WILL TRAP REMAINING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEFORE
MIXING AND THE ARRIVAL OF SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR HELP ERODE
CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS WOULD LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE
EAST LONGER GIVEN THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MOIST NE FLOW FROM THE
MOISTURE POOL.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BE
SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. A
LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS MANITOBA AS AN ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW SEND A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE FRONT
WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE WESTERN CWA 12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE STILL OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...INITIAL MID AND
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE MARGINAL. THEREFORE...PRECIP COVERAGE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WEDNESDAY WILL
REINFORCE THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COMBINED WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET AND INCREASING
LOW TO MID-LEVEL FGEN...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE
IN PRECIP COVERAGE ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS A
TOUCH SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH AND MORE WIDESPREAD WITH PRECIP THAN
THE GFS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE WEST HALF THURSDAY AND THE EAST HALF THURSDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AFTER
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS FORMS A STRONG LOW OVER LAKE HURON WHILE
THE ECMWF FORMS THE LOW CLOSER TO HUDSON BAY. EITHER WAY...THE
OVERALL PICTURE IS A SERIES OF RAW...CHILLY FALL DAYS BEGINNING ON
FRIDAY WITH BLUSTERY NW WINDS AND PLENTY OF WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
BEHIND THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST. IN ADDITION...THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED
PRECIP CHANCES FOR FRIDAY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH INCREASED LAKE MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE SUPPORT. THE
ARRIVAL OF 850 HPA TEMPS OF -3 TO -1C WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS AS SFC-H8 DELTA T VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 10C. THE
COOLEST WIDESPREAD TEMPS OF THE SEASON ARE ALSO EXPECTED AS HIGHS
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S...A STARK DIFFERENCE FROM HIGHS IN
THE 70S THIS SATURDAY/TODAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW UNTIL
THIS EVENING. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...SHALLOW
RADIATION FOG WILL DEVELOP AT NIGHT AND AFFECT KSAW. LOW-LEVEL WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY COMPONENT...SO AT THIS
POINT...NOT ANTICIPATING KSAW TO DROP BLO MVFR TOWARD DAYBREAK. A
COLD FRONT BOOSTED BY THE LAKE BREEZE WILL BRING VEERING WINDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AT CMX AND THIS EVENING AT SAW AND IWD. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT WILL MOVE IN WITH LOWER MVFR
CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. SOME SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON ITS IMPACT AT SAW IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014
LIGHT WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN CHANGES ARE EXPECTED BY
MONDAY MORNING AS A FRONT WORKS NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS LK SUPERIOR.
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND QUICKLY RAMP UP TO 25-30
KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONGER WINDS CONTINUING INTO
MIDDAY MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST OVER EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR. WHILE THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...AN EXTENDED NW GALE EVENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOMETIME FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH MORE MOIST AIR BEGINNING TO WORK NORTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVER MAINLY NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
852 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
.UPDATE...
LATEST MODEL INDICATORS SHOW LOTS OF FAVORABLE DYNAMIC PROCESSES
AFFECTING OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST BY 600 AM TOMORROW MORNING AS
CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS RAPID CITY VICINITY AND UP THROUGH
THE DAKOTAS. SO THE INHERITED CATEGORICAL POPS AND QPF LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR THIS AREA VERY LEGIT. THE REST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE MUCH LESS IN THE TERMS OF IMPACT. BT
FOR THIS EVENING...ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE EVENING IN EAST AS DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE MAIN AREAS OF PRECIP WILL REACH SE CORNER OF STATE
UNTIL AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. HRRR A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON QPF
OVER CUSTER AND POWDER RIVER SO PULLED HIGHER POPS WEST TO THESE
COUNTIES JUST A BIT FOR LATE TONIGHT. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
BT
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY NEAR YELLOWSTONE
PARK. FOG/STRATUS FROM EARLIER TODAY IS ERODING AWAY SLOWLY WITH
DAYTIME MIXING AND AS WE NO LONGER HAVE STRONG UPSLOPE SFC WINDS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF CU OVER OUR
MOUNTAINS AND THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR WEST THROUGH AROUND SUNSET AS WE APPROACH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S UNDER COOL POOL ALOFT. THIS WILL NOT AMOUNT
TO MUCH...BUT WE MAY SEE A LIGHT SHOWER NEAR BILLINGS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE
BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS.
BIGGER CONCERN EVOLVES AROUND STRONG ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAPIDLY COOLING
TOPS IN COLORADO AS 100KT H3 JET EMERGES FROM SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TROF. SFC LOW INTENSIFYING IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL TRACK UP THE
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. NEARLY STACKED LOWS WILL LIFT THROUGH WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A GOOD POSITION TO BRING
OUR FAR EAST A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ALL MODELS
HAVE COME IN LINE HERE IN SHOWING STRONG QG FORCING AND MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IMPACTING OUR EAST. WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO
FORECAST...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AND OVER AN INCH AND A HALF OF
PCPN FOR FALLON/CARTER COUNTIES BY TOMORROW EVENING. SHOULD ALSO
SEE A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER PER ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT OFF TO THE PCPN ON THE
WESTERN SIDE...WHEREAS MILES CITY SHOULD GET SOME RAIN TOMORROW
AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS. BILLINGS WILL BE UNAFFECTED. SYSTEM
WILL DEPART TO OUR NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD ALSO POINT OUT
THE INCREASE IN W-NW WINDS TOMORROW AS SFC LOW TRACKS JUST TO OUR
WEST...A CHANGE FROM THE EAST WINDS WE HAVE SEEN OF LATE.
OTHERWISE...NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS TO OUR
WEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING INTO
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE COMES THROUGH. LOW LEVELS WILL BE
STRONGLY DOWNSLOPED AND THIS WILL LIMIT PCPN AMOUNTS. 700MB TEMPS
FALL BELOW 0C TUESDAY NIGHT SO EXPECT SOME SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS...A LOWER SNOW LEVEL THAN WE SAW WITH THE MOST RECENT
SYSTEM. FLAT RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BRING US A DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY W-NW WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL TAKE ANOTHER STEP UP TOMORROW WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
60S...OR JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE END OF SEPTEMBER. COLD FRONT
WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY...MAINLY UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60...WITH THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS KEEPING OUR TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO
FAR.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
OVERALL EXPECT TO SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY WRINKLE WILL BE
THURSDAY / THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL
PUSH IN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE 12Z EC CAME IN A BIT STRONGER /
FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...AND OUT OF RESPECT TO THIS
POSSIBILITY...COOLED FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND
INTRODUCED A SLT CHC POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON / EVENING. FOR FRIDAY
AND BEYOND RISING HEIGHTS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA AS RIDGING BECOMES STRONGER TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE LIKELY BY THE WEEKEND.
LOOKING OUT EVEN FARTHER...THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF
OCTOBER...MODELS SEEM TO BE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ABOUT MAINTAINING
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A BELOW NORMAL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. LATEST CFS RUNS HAVE ALSO CAUGHT ONTO THIS WARMER
AND DRIER TREND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF OCTOBER...SO THERE IS
SOME CONFIDENCE IN HOLDING OFF ANY COLDER OR WETTER SPELL FOR A
WEEK OR TWO LONGER. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS OUTLOOK IS WHETHER ANY
TYPHOONS DEVELOP IN THE EAST PACIFIC AND KICK THE LONG-WAVE
PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC WHILE GOING EXTRA-TROPICAL. CHURCH
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHEASTERN MT TONIGHT AS
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EXPAND. FOG MAY DEVELOP WESTWARD NEARLY
TO KBIL FOR A TIME BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS KICK IN THERE BY 09 UTC.
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHEASTERN MT BY
09 UTC AND THEN CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH IFR OR EVEN LIFR
CONDITIONS IN THE KBHK...K4BQ...AND POSSIBLY KMLS AREAS. SCHULTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049/067 044/060 042/057 036/068 049/074 050/071 047/069
12/W 22/W 12/W 00/U 00/U 11/U 10/U
LVM 045/066 037/057 035/060 035/067 043/071 042/069 041/068
23/W 32/W 12/W 00/U 00/U 11/U 10/U
HDN 045/069 043/061 039/059 035/069 046/074 047/073 044/070
12/W 22/W 12/W 10/U 00/U 11/U 10/U
MLS 048/065 047/060 041/057 032/064 046/073 048/070 044/068
37/W 32/W 11/B 00/U 00/U 11/U 10/B
4BQ 048/062 044/060 039/059 032/064 045/071 047/070 044/068
88/T 22/W 12/W 20/U 00/U 11/U 10/U
BHK 048/059 045/059 038/056 029/057 040/068 045/065 041/063
9+/T 52/W 11/N 10/U 00/U 11/U 10/B
SHR 047/065 042/057 034/060 032/067 042/071 045/070 040/068
22/W 22/W 12/W 20/U 00/U 11/U 10/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1230 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014
AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST
COAST WITH A CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. MOISTURE
STREAMED NORTHWARD ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE TROUGH WHERE LOTS
OF CLOUD COVER AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED FROM ARIZONA INTO
MONTANA. STRONG RIDGING WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
COUNTRY WHILE A CUTOFF UPPER LOW SPUN OVER WESTERN IOWA.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS HAVE SOARED TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS AS WARM AIR STREAMS NORTH UNDER THE RIDGE. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WERE COMMON FOR MUCH OF
THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH LOCAL AREAS RANGING
FROM 80 TO 85 DEGREES.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT WAS OBSERVED FROM THE VICINITY OF THE IOWA
UPPER LOW DOWN INTO TEXAS. THIS LED TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES...AND
THEREFORE HAVE OBSERVED DECENT CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS CA/NV THIS AFTN WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY TUESDAY. A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT
WILL SWEEP THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS WRN NEB WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS EAST. COOLER WEATHER
PREVAILS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014
THE UPPER LOW OVER IOWA WILL STAY FAIRLY STATIONARY OR MAY EVEN
MEANDER WESTWARD SLIGHTLY TONIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE
OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW...WHICH WOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...IT IS PROJECTED THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE VEERING TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THIS SAME AREA WHICH COULD BRING ENOUGH LIFT TO
DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
TIME-FRAME LOOKS TO BE 09Z TO 15Z CURRENTLY. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE
DEVELOPMENT IN A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE SOMEWHERE FROM NORTH CENTRAL
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. CONFIDENCE ISN/T REAL HIGH THOUGH IN
PLACEMENT AND AS COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
CURRENTLY.
ALSO LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT OVER THE WESTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM IS HIGHLIGHTING A STRONG INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHILE THE GFS IS FURTHER
EAST. THAT BEING SAID...THE RAP KEEPS MINIMAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE LOCAL AREA...AS IT KEEPS THE POTENTIAL BETTER OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. THESE DIFFERENCES MAINLY RELY ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW. WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE...HAVE NOT ADDED FOG INTO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL PASS ON POTENTIAL TO ONCOMING
SHIFT.
LOOKING THEN INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE THOUGHT THAT ANY FOG AND/OR
CLOUD COVER THAT MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...AND WITH
DEEP MIXING EXPECTED...SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SEE HIGHS IN THE 80S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ECM AND NAM ARE THE SLOWEST SOLNS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE PACIFIC FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THUS
RAIN CHANCES ARE DELAYED UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE
THE FASTER AND STRONGER GFS/GEM SOLNS ARE A BETTER FCST BUT GIVEN
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER OVERALL...THE NAM/ECM APPEARS TO
BE THE BEST FIT.
A SOLID PV ANOMALY WILL BE APPROACHING THE FCST AREA MONDAY AFTN AND
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS
INTO THE EVENING. COLD AIR ALOFT AND PWS OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 61. THE NAM/ECM SOLN PRODUCES 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE
WEST DOWN TO 1/4 INCH IN THE EAST. POPS ARE LIMITED TO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR THIS FORECAST AS MODEL TIMING IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
THE FORECAST.
SOUTHEAST WINDS MONDAY INCREASE TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THE
GFS/GEM MODELS SUGGEST 30 MPH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH. THE MAX
TEMPERATURE FORECAST COOLS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. AN
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER LOW.
SPC SUGGESTED AMPLE SHEAR WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTN AS SOUTHERLY
H500MB WINDS INCREASE TO 60 KT. THIS IS TRUE BUT COUPLED WITH THE
STRONG LOWER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS...20 TO 30 KT...THE EFFECTIVE
SHEAR APPEARS WEAK NEAR 20 TO 30 KT AND THE NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
NARROW CAPE. THE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PARAMETER IN ALL SOLNS SEEMS TO
SUPPORT THE 5 PERCENT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MONDAY.
THE PACIFIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA TUESDAY. THE H500MB
COLD POOL CENTERED OVER SD SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION
ACROSS NRN NEB WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE 500M AGL
WINDS IN THE GFS...ECM AND GEM INCREASE TO OVER 30 KT ACROSS NRN NEB
DURING THE AFTN WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A WIND ADVISORY. THE 12Z ECM HAS
TRENDED TOWARD THE DEEPER GFS/GEM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOLN. THE
STRONG WINDS DEVELOP IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PV ANOMALY AND H700MB
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 KT SHOWN IN THESE MODELS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...STRONG COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH SUGGEST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE SECOND COLD FRONT SENDS H850MB TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 0C
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS FRIDAY RISE INTO JUST THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT FROST SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS HIGH MOVES OFF
VERY QUICKLY AND WARM AIR RETURNS TO THE FCST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE HIGHS RISE INTO THE 60S AND 70S EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SOME LIGHT
RAINSHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE BETWEEN KBBW
AND KONL. MIFG OR BR IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY BETWEEN 2912Z AND 2914Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1110 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TONIGHT...AND
WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MILD
TEMPERATURES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MUCH COOLER FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM MONDAY...LATEST 88D TRENDS ILLUSTRATE THE MAIN RAIN
SHIELD HAS MOVED OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS. THIS LEAVES PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE THRU
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATM COLUMN AND AM HESITANT TO PLACE FOG IN
THE FCST. WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD STAY ACTIVE VIA
THE LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE FROM GA-SC COASTS. HAVE KEPT A STRATUS
CLOUD DECK THRUOUT THE OVERNIGHT...AND UP THRU SEVERAL HOURS AFTER
DAYBREAK TUE. THIS SHOULD ALSO HOLD THE FOG TO A MINIMUM. MIN
TEMP FCST STILL IN THE BALLPARK AND SEE NO REASON TO TWEAK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...........................................
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...THE PCPN
CONSISTING OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...IS COMING TO AN END FROM
WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. LATEST HRRR ALSO
ILLUSTRATES THE MAIN PCPN SHIELD SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY 1AM
TO 3AM TUESDAY...LEAVING PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
HAVE BEEN RE-CALCULATED AS A RESULT. BECAME MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH
ANY CLEARING DUE TO PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVBL FROM THE SFC THRU 600
MB AS SHOWN BY THE LATEST NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FA...WELL
AFTER THE TIME PCPN COMES TO AN END. VERY LITTLE TWEAKING TO
TONIGHTS MINS NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.................................
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA BENDS NORTHEASTWARD AND PARALLELS THE COAST ALBEIT WELL
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTAINED WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS OVERRUNNING HAS BEEN VERY LIGHT IN NATURE DUE
TO THE WEAKNESS OF THE RESULTING UPGLIDE. FURTHERMORE...A WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA HAS SHOVED SOME
LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE EASTERN EXTREME OF THE STATE INCLUDING
THE CAPE FEAR REGION. AS THIS DRIER AIR TRIES TO PERMEATE MORE REAL
ESTATE ACROSS NC AND EVENTUALLY PARTS OF SC RAIN CHANCES SHOULD WANE
OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL BE VERY SLOW TO FOLLOW SUIT SO ANY
CLEARING TREND EXPECTED TO BE NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE
SURFACE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE WEAKLY OVERRUN. LINGERING LOW TO MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD PRECLUDE ALL BUT MAYBE SHALLOW GROUND FOG AS
TEMPS OTHERWISE DROP TO VERY NEAR DEWPOINTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY...WITH A DRY PUNCH IN THE
MID LEVELS SCOURING OUT ALL THE MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB. A FLAT
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION AROUND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE (MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS) WILL KEEP NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE LOW
LEVELS WITH ONLY A GRADUAL DRYING/CLEARING TREND EXPECTED. ALONG
THE COAST THIS MEANS IT MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON FOR LOW
CLOUDS TO BREAK...BUT INLAND SKIES SHOULD TURN PARTLY CLOUDY
DURING THE MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE 12Z GFS LOOKS MOST REASONABLE WITH MASS
FIELDS IT MAY BE A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE CLEARING CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST AND I HAVE TRENDED MY FORECAST HIGHS A LITTLE BENEATH THE
12Z GFS MOS AS A RESULT...79-81 OVER SE NORTH CAROLINA AND 80-82
OVER NE SOUTH CAROLINA.
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A MODEST SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY LEAD TO A
FEW EVENING CLOUDS BUT SKIES SHOULD BECOME CLEAR BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY BE A TOUCH TOO STRONG FOR FOG ALTHOUGH
THE MOISTURE PROFILES OTHERWISE LOOK PRETTY GOOD FOR FOG. LOWS
SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 60 INLAND...WITH LOWER 60S COASTAL AREAS AND
SOME MID 60S ON THE BEACHES.
WITH EVEN LESS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE (PRECIP WATER VALUES 0.8
TO 0.9 INCHES) EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY SKIES SHOULD BE ESSENTIALLY
CLEAR. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHEASTERLY ALONG THE
COAST WITH A LIGHT SEABREEZE CIRCULATION. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
MID 80S ACROSS THE SC PEE DEE REGION...LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE EXCEPT
A LITTLE COOLER AT THE BEACHES WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN
THEIR SEASONAL DROP...NOW IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. VERY LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WOULD ARGUE FOR FOG...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE MAY NOT BE QUITE DEEP ENOUGH ACCORDING TO THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH MID-UPPER 60S AT
THE BEACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINNING FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY WITH DECENT FORCING AND WITH
GUIDANCE SHOWING AN EVEN DEEPER TROUGH...MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM
THE ATLANTIC IS STRONGER HENCE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS FOR THE EVENT.
WITH THE TROUGH GOING A LITTLE NEGATIVE TILT...THE FRONT MAY SLOW
BEFORE CLEARING OUT SATURDAY AND HAVE EXTENDED POPS A BIT TO
ADDRESS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE VERY NICE UNDER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S CWA WIDE.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN HAS PUSHED THROUGH KFLO/KLBT
THIS EVENING...SO ADDITIONAL -RA IS UNLIKELY INLAND TONIGHT. THE
RAIN IS ALSO WANING ALONG THE COAST...ALTHOUGH A NARROW BAND OF RA
COULD BRING TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL TERMS EARLY IN THE
TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
AS MID LEVEL CIGS PERSIST AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THIS CLOUD COVER
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES OFFSHORE BY 12Z TUE. A SFC LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OVERNIGHT WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE
CAROLINAS...KEEPING NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KT. CLOUD COVER AND
WINDS LIMIT THE OVERALL FOG THREAT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY FOG/STRATUS WOULD BE INLAND...BUT EVEN AT THESE
TERMINALS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IFR ATTM. VFR WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE DAY TUE WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM MONDAY...CURRENTLY A BROAD LOW EXTENDS OFF THE GA-FL
COASTS FROM NE GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A
DEVELOPING SFC LOW OFFSHORE AND EAST OF THE GA COAST BY DAYBREAK
TUE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT
ACROSS THE ILM WATERS THAT WILL YIELD NE 10-20 KT OVERNIGHT INTO
DAYLIGHT TUE. THE HIER END OF THIS SCALE TO OCCUR CLOSER TO THE
LOW...OVER THE ILM SC WATERS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FT
RANGE...EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST ILM SC WATERS.
FOUR TO 6 SECOND PERIOD...WIND DRIVEN WAVES TO DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..............................................
AS OF 745 PM MONDAY...COASTAL TROF OR FRONT TO REMAIN OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS JUST EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. WEAK
SFC LOW TO MOVE OFF THE GA-FL COAST EARLY THIS EVENING...AND MOVE
ENE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT STAYING OFFSHORE TO A POSITION
OF 140NM SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR BY DAYBREAK TUE. THE LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN-SOME AND HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE LOCAL WINDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE ILM SC WATERS. FOR NOW WILL FORECAST A SOLID 10-15 KT
BUT MAY INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 KT OR A 15-20 KT RANGE FOR THE ILM
SC WATERS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT...HIEST
OFF CAPE FEAR AND OFF FROM THE MOUTH OF WINYAH BAY. FIVE FOOTERS
ARE A POSSIBILITY OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST WATERS...WILL MONITOR.
LOOKING AT 4 TO 5 SECONDS FOR AVERAGE PERIODS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.................................
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...FRONT RUNNING ACROSS FLORIDA AND THEN
PARALLEL TO BUT WELL OFF THE COAST. THIS BOUNDARY NOT SLATED TO
MOVE MUCH THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SO WIND AND SEAS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
STEADY STATE. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BETWEEN THE FLAT NATURE OF THE WAVE
AND THE OFFSHORE DISTANCE OF THE BOUNDARY THIS WILL NOT LEAD TO
MUCH OF A CHANGE IN WIND SPEED OR DIRECTION. NORTHEAST WINDS
AVERAGING 10 TO 15 KT MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WAVES AVERAGING 2 TO 4 FT AT THIS TIME AND THEY TOO SHALL
REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN TUESDAY MORNING OFF
THE GEORGIA COAST ALONG AN OLD FRONT. AS THIS LOW MOVES AWAY FROM
THE COASTLINE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS...REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS MEANS AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE OF NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE STRONGEST WINDS...NC AROUND 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 18-20 KNOTS...ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DIMINISHING
AROUND SUNSET TUESDAY EVENING. LIGHTER NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD
DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A
WEAK SEABREEZE SHOULD TURN WIND DIRECTIONS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY.
SEAS 3-4 FEET TUESDAY WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 2 FEET. AMONG THE
VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS THE 12Z GFS LOOKS THE BEST FOLLOWED BY THE
00Z ECMWF.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...VERY LIGHT WIND FIELDS THURSDAY WILL GIVE
WAY TO STRONGER WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE WEAKENING THURSDAY AND EAST WINDS WILL TURN TO SOUTHEAST
LATE. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PICK UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
10-15 KNOTS. THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE WATERS EARLY SATURDAY WITH
A NORTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS ENSUING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE
1-3 FEET THURSDAY AND MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY. SATURDAY THE RANGE
WILL INCREASE TO 2-4 FEET WITH THE HIGHER SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...DCH/MBB
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
817 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TONIGHT...AND
WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MILD
TEMPERATURES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MUCH COOLER FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...THE PCPN
CONSISTING OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...IS COMING TO AN END FROM
WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. LATEST HRRR ALSO
ILLUSTRATES THE MAIN PCPN SHIELD SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY 1AM
TO 3AM TUESDAY...LEAVING PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
HAVE BEEN RE-CALCULATED AS A RESULT. BECAME MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH
ANY CLEARING DUE TO PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVBL FROM THE SFC THRU 600
MB AS SHOWN BY THE LATEST NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FA...WELL
AFTER THE TIME PCPN COMES TO AN END. VERY LITTLE TWEAKING TO
TONIGHTS MINS NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...........................................
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA BENDS NORTHEASTWARD AND PARALLELS THE COAST ALBEIT WELL
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTAINED WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS OVERRUNNING HAS BEEN VERY LIGHT IN NATURE DUE
TO THE WEAKNESS OF THE RESULTING UPGLIDE. FURTHERMORE...A WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA HAS SHOVED SOME
LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE EASTERN EXTREME OF THE STATE INCLUDING
THE CAPE FEAR REGION. AS THIS DRIER AIR TRIES TO PERMEATE MORE REAL
ESTATE ACROSS NC AND EVENTUALLY PARTS OF SC RAIN CHANCES SHOULD WANE
OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL BE VERY SLOW TO FOLLOW SUIT SO ANY
CLEARING TREND EXPECTED TO BE NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE
SURFACE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE WEAKLY OVERRUN. LINGERING LOW TO MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD PRECLUDE ALL BUT MAYBE SHALLOW GROUND FOG AS
TEMPS OTHERWISE DROP TO VERY NEAR DEWPOINTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY...WITH A DRY PUNCH IN THE
MID LEVELS SCOURING OUT ALL THE MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB. A FLAT
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION AROUND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE (MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS) WILL KEEP NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE LOW
LEVELS WITH ONLY A GRADUAL DRYING/CLEARING TREND EXPECTED. ALONG
THE COAST THIS MEANS IT MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON FOR LOW
CLOUDS TO BREAK...BUT INLAND SKIES SHOULD TURN PARTLY CLOUDY
DURING THE MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE 12Z GFS LOOKS MOST REASONABLE WITH MASS
FIELDS IT MAY BE A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE CLEARING CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST AND I HAVE TRENDED MY FORECAST HIGHS A LITTLE BENEATH THE
12Z GFS MOS AS A RESULT...79-81 OVER SE NORTH CAROLINA AND 80-82
OVER NE SOUTH CAROLINA.
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A MODEST SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY LEAD TO A
FEW EVENING CLOUDS BUT SKIES SHOULD BECOME CLEAR BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY BE A TOUCH TOO STRONG FOR FOG ALTHOUGH
THE MOISTURE PROFILES OTHERWISE LOOK PRETTY GOOD FOR FOG. LOWS
SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 60 INLAND...WITH LOWER 60S COASTAL AREAS AND
SOME MID 60S ON THE BEACHES.
WITH EVEN LESS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE (PRECIP WATER VALUES 0.8
TO 0.9 INCHES) EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY SKIES SHOULD BE ESSENTIALLY
CLEAR. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHEASTERLY ALONG THE
COAST WITH A LIGHT SEABREEZE CIRCULATION. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
MID 80S ACROSS THE SC PEE DEE REGION...LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE EXCEPT
A LITTLE COOLER AT THE BEACHES WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN
THEIR SEASONAL DROP...NOW IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. VERY LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WOULD ARGUE FOR FOG...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE MAY NOT BE QUITE DEEP ENOUGH ACCORDING TO THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH MID-UPPER 60S AT
THE BEACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINNING FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY WITH DECENT FORCING AND WITH
GUIDANCE SHOWING AN EVEN DEEPER TROUGH...MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM
THE ATLANTIC IS STRONGER HENCE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS FOR THE EVENT.
WITH THE TROUGH GOING A LITTLE NEGATIVE TILT...THE FRONT MAY SLOW
BEFORE CLEARING OUT SATURDAY AND HAVE EXTENDED POPS A BIT TO
ADDRESS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE VERY NICE UNDER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S CWA WIDE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN HAS PUSHED THROUGH KFLO/KLBT
THIS EVENING...SO ADDITIONAL -RA IS UNLIKELY INLAND TONIGHT. THE
RAIN IS ALSO WANING ALONG THE COAST...ALTHOUGH A NARROW BAND OF RA
COULD BRING TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL TERMS EARLY IN THE
TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
AS MID LEVEL CIGS PERSIST AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THIS CLOUD COVER
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES OFFSHORE BY 12Z TUE. A SFC LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OVERNIGHT WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE
CAROLINAS...KEEPING NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KT. CLOUD COVER AND
WINDS LIMIT THE OVERALL FOG THREAT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY FOG/STRATUS WOULD BE INLAND...BUT EVEN AT THESE
TERMINALS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IFR ATTM. VFR WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE DAY TUE WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 745 PM MONDAY...COASTAL TROF OR FRONT TO REMAIN OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS JUST EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. WEAK
SFC LOW TO MOVE OFF THE GA-FL COAST EARLY THIS EVENING...AND MOVE
ENE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT STAYING OFFSHORE TO A POSITION
OF 140NM SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR BY DAYBREAK TUE. THE LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN-SOME AND HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE LOCAL WINDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE ILM SC WATERS. FOR NOW WILL FORECAST A SOLID 10-15 KT
BUT MAY INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 KT OR A 15-20 KT RANGE FOR THE ILM
SC WATERS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT...HIEST
OFF CAPE FEAR AND OFF FROM THE MOUTH OF WINYAH BAY. FIVE FOOTERS
ARE A POSSIBILITY OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST WATERS...WILL MONITOR.
LOOKING AT 4 TO 5 SECONDS FOR AVERAGE PERIODS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION............................................
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...FRONT RUNNING ACROSS FLORIDA AND THEN
PARALLEL TO BUT WELL OFF THE COAST. THIS BOUNDARY NOT SLATED TO
MOVE MUCH THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SO WIND AND SEAS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
STEADY STATE. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BETWEEN THE FLAT NATURE OF THE WAVE
AND THE OFFSHORE DISTANCE OF THE BOUNDARY THIS WILL NOT LEAD TO
MUCH OF A CHANGE IN WIND SPEED OR DIRECTION. NORTHEAST WINDS
AVERAGING 10 TO 15 KT MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WAVES AVERAGING 2 TO 4 FT AT THIS TIME AND THEY TOO SHALL
REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN TUESDAY MORNING OFF
THE GEORGIA COAST ALONG AN OLD FRONT. AS THIS LOW MOVES AWAY FROM
THE COASTLINE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS...REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS MEANS AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE OF NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE STRONGEST WINDS...NC AROUND 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 18-20 KNOTS...ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DIMINISHING
AROUND SUNSET TUESDAY EVENING. LIGHTER NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD
DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A
WEAK SEABREEZE SHOULD TURN WIND DIRECTIONS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY.
SEAS 3-4 FEET TUESDAY WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 2 FEET. AMONG THE
VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS THE 12Z GFS LOOKS THE BEST FOLLOWED BY THE
00Z ECMWF.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...VERY LIGHT WIND FIELDS THURSDAY WILL GIVE
WAY TO STRONGER WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE WEAKENING THURSDAY AND EAST WINDS WILL TURN TO SOUTHEAST
LATE. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PICK UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
10-15 KNOTS. THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE WATERS EARLY SATURDAY WITH
A NORTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS ENSUING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE
1-3 FEET THURSDAY AND MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY. SATURDAY THE RANGE
WILL INCREASE TO 2-4 FEET WITH THE HIGHER SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...DCH/MBB
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
700 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
TRACK ACROSS THE GULF COAST MONDAY...THEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...
LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING...INCLUDING A
1023 MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...WILL
DRIFT OFFSHORE TODAY. MEANWHILE...A MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS...ONE COMPRISED OF A COUPLE OF WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATIONS OVER IA AND EASTERN TX...WILL MOVE INITIALLY SLOWLY
EAST THIS MORNING THEN ACCELERATE EASTWARD LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...OWING TO THE APPROACH OF A KICKER TROUGH FROM SW CANADA.
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF HIGH BASED STRATOCUMULUS (6-8
THOUSAND FT) ARCING FROM SE NC TO THE NC FOOTHILLS (JUST WEST OF THE
YADKIN) WILL PIVOT NORTHWESTWARD AND SPREAD - IN A THINNING/
SCATTERING STATE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT TODAY PER
THE 00Z GFS AND RECENT RAP RUNS...WHEREAS THE 00Z NAM APPEARED TOO
AGGRESSIVE/PESSIMISTIC WITH THESE SKY CONDITIONS PER COMPARISON TO
RECENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA. AS SUCH...THE NAM/S DEPICTION OF BKN TO
OVC 6-8 THOUSAND FT SKY COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT BY 18Z IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AND WILL BE DISCOUNTED IN
FAVOR OF GENERALLY SCT COVERAGE AND ASSOCIATED PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER
OF CENTRAL NC SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY...BENEATH PASSING CIRRUS
THAT WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN FROM THE WEST LATE. PROJECTED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES ABOUT 10 METERS HIGHER THAN THOSE OF SATURDAY
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...OR ABOUT 3 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN SATURDAY.
TONIGHT: NWP GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
APPROACH OF THE MID-UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST...WITH A CONSENSUS
POSITION OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY/NORTHERN
TN VALLEY BY 12Z MON. ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT...ON THE ORDER
30-50 METERS AT H5 OVERNIGHT IN CENTRAL NC...SHOULD SUPPORT THE
NORTHEASTWARD EXPANSION/DEVELOPMENT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL/MIXED
PHASE-GENERATED RAIN. WITH CLOUD BASES EXPECTED TO HOLD AOA 10
THOUSAND FT...IT IS LIKELY THAT ONLY VIRGA WILL FALL FROM THESE MID
LEVEL CEILINGS...OR PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES INVOF THE YADKIN RIVER
AROUND DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...INITIALLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS EVENING OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...AND
DELAYED ARRIVAL OF THE THICKER CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SUPPORT GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS THERE ARE LIKELY TO DIP INTO
THE MID-UPPER 50S...RANGING TO LOWER-MIDDLE 60S OVER THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...
SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MONDAY MORNING... WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER GA/FL.
THIS IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. TAIL END OF THE
UPPER JET EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD LIFT... HOWEVER GIVEN THE POSITION OF
THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH... MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS LIMITED. HAVE
SCALED BACK QPF TO UNDER A HALF INCH ACROSS THE AREA... LOWER
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE VA BORDER.
SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING... AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH AS
SUBSIDENCE AND MIDLEVEL DRYING FOLLOWS... HOWEVER LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE IN TO WEDNESDAY. WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING WILL ALSO
PROLONG LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN TO EARLY WEDNESDAY. PARENT HIGH
REMAINS FAR TO THE NORTH OVER QUEBEC... UNFAVORABLY POSITIONED FOR A
PROLONGED DAMMING EVENT... AND ANY REMAINING WEDGE WILL ERODE DURING
THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS
TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 318 AM SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY... AS A
STRONG TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. MODEL
AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO BE GOOD... WITH THE PARENT LOW MOVING NORTH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM SUNDAY...
UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF MODIFIED CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION TO VFR WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LINGERING SHALLOW FOG AND ASSOCIATED LIFR-MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AT KRWI/KRDU/KFAY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...BENEATH
PERIODS OF PASSING CIRRUS...AN AREA OF 6-9 THOUSAND FT STRATOCUMULUS
NEAR THE SC BORDER THIS MORNING WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO CENTRAL NC
TODAY...MOST NOTABLY AT WESTERN TERMINALS WHERE ASSOCIATED CEILINGS
COULD RESULT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE APPROACH OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL CAUSE MID-HIGH CLOUDS TO
THICKEN AND LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A
FEW SPRINKLES FROM MID LEVEL CLOUD BASES AT TRIAD TERMINALS AROUND
DAYBREAK MONDAY.
OUTLOOK: A PERIOD OF MEASURABLE RAIN AND CEILINGS LOWERING INTO MVFR
RANGE WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE MON INTO EARLY TUE...ESPECIALLY AT
KFAY...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND TRACKS ACROSS THE
GULF COAST (WELL SOUTH OF CENTRAL NC). A SURGE IN NE LOW LEVEL FLOW
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AT KRWI AND KFAY ON WED.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
332 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
TRACK ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES MONDAY...THEN MOVE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...
LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING...INCLUDING A
1023 MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...WILL
DRIFT OFFSHORE TODAY. MEANWHILE...A MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS...ONE COMPRISED OF A COUPLE OF WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATIONS OVER IA AND EASTERN TX...WILL MOVE INITIALLY SLOWLY
EAST THIS MORNING THEN ACCELERATE EASTWARD LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...OWING TO THE APPROACH OF A KICKER TROUGH FROM SW CANADA.
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF HIGH BASED STRATOCUMULUS (6-8
THOUSAND FT) ARCING FROM SE NC TO THE NC FOOTHILLS (JUST WEST OF THE
YADKIN) WILL PIVOT NORTHWESTWARD AND SPREAD - IN A THINNING/
SCATTERING STATE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT TODAY PER
THE 00Z GFS AND RECENT RAP RUNS...WHEREAS THE 00Z NAM APPEARED TOO
AGGRESSIVE/PESSIMISTIC WITH THESE SKY CONDITIONS PER COMPARISON TO
RECENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA. AS SUCH...THE NAM/S DEPICTION OF BKN TO
OVC 6-8 THOUSAND FT SKY COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT BY 18Z IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AND WILL BE DISCOUNTED IN
FAVOR OF GENERALLY SCT COVERAGE AND ASSOCIATED PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER
OF CENTRAL NC SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY...BENEATH PASSING CIRRUS
THAT WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY.
PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ABOUT 10 METERS HIGHER THAN
THOSE OF SATURDAY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...OR
ABOUT 3 DEGREES HIGHER THAN SATURDAY.
TONIGHT: NWP GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
APPROACH OF THE MID-UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST...WITH A CONSENSUS
POSITION OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY/NORTHERN
TN VALLEY BY 12Z MON. ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT...ON THE ORDER
30-50 METERS AT H5 OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SUPPORT THE NORTHEASTWARD
EXPANSION/DEVELOPMENT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL/MIXED PHASE-GENERATED
RAIN. WITH CLOUD BASES EXPECTED TO HOLD AOA 10 THOUSAND FT...IT IS
LIKELY THAT ONLY VIRGA WILL FALL FROM THESE MID LEVEL CEILINGS...OR
AT PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES INVOF THE YADKIN RIVER AROUND DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...INITIALLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING OVER
THE NE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...AND DELAYED ARRIVAL OF
THE THICKER CLOUD COVER...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS
THERE ARE LIKELY TO DIP INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S...RANGING TO LOWER-
MIDDLE 60S OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...
SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MONDAY MORNING... WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER GA/FL.
THIS IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. TAIL END OF THE
UPPER JET EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD LIFT... HOWEVER GIVEN THE POSITION OF
THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH... MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS LIMITED. HAVE
SCALED BACK QPF TO UNDER A HALF INCH ACROSS THE AREA... LOWER
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE VA BORDER.
SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING... AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH AS
SUBSIDENCE AND MIDLEVEL DRYING FOLLOWS... HOWEVER LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE IN TO WEDNESDAY. WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING WILL ALSO
PROLONG LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN TO EARLY WEDNESDAY. PARENT HIGH
REMAINS FAR TO THE NORTH OVER QUEBEC... UNFAVORABLY POSITIONED FOR A
PROLONGED DAMMING EVENT... AND ANY REMAINING WEDGE WILL ERODE DURING
THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS
TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 318 AM SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY... AS A
STRONG TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. MODEL
AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO BE GOOD... WITH THE PARENT LOW MOVING NORTH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM SUNDAY...
UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF MODIFIED CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION TO VFR WILL BE SHALLOW FOG AND
ASSOCIATED LIFR-MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT KRWI/KRDU/KFAY...
LOWEST AND LONGEST AT KRWI. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY SCATTERED MVFR
RANGE CLOUD BASES MAY FOLLOW AS THE MOIST LAYER RISES AND DISPERSES
THROUGH 16Z AT KRWI AND KFAY. OTHERWISE...BENEATH PERIODS OF PASSING
CIRRUS...AN AREA OF 6-8 THOUSAND FT STRATOCUMULUS NEAR THE SC BORDER
THIS MORNING WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO CENTRAL NC TODAY...MOST NOTABLY
AT WESTERN TERMINALS WHERE ASSOCIATED CEILINGS COULD RESULT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
OUTLOOK: THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL
CAUSE MID-HIGH CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES FROM MID LEVEL CLOUD BASES AT
TRIAD TERMINALS AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. A PERIOD OF MEASURABLE RAIN
AND CEILINGS LOWERING INTO MVFR RANGE WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE MON INTO
EARLY TUE...ESPECIALLY AT KFAY...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND TRACKS ACROSS THE GULF COAST (WELL SOUTH OF CENTRAL
NC). A SURGE IN NE LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AT KRWI AND
KFAY ON WED.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
142 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING FAIR AND MILD
WEATHER TODAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A WET FORECAST IS SHAPING UP
FOR LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRYING THROUGH MID-WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY CROSS THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM SATURDAY...SOME TWEAKING OF SKY CONDITIONS FOR THIS
UPDATE. BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY TRENDS...LOOKING AT MAINLY
HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE NC PORTION OVERNITE...
AND...ALL 3 DECKS FOR THE ILM SC PORTION OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE LOW CHANCE FOR -RA OR DRIZZLE FOR THE SC COUNTIES.
TWEAKED MINS A DEGREE OR 2 LOWER FOR THE ILM NC PORTIONS DUE TO
LESS CLOUDS...OTHERWISE NO EDITS NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...................................
AS OF 730 PM SATURDAY...LATEST LOCAL KLTX AND 88D MOSAIC KEEPS THE
MAIN PCPN SHIELD SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. LATEST HRRR MODEL KEEPS ANY
ONSHORE MOVEMENT OF THE PCPN ACROSS THE ILM SC COUNTIES. AS A
RESULT...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS KEEPING THEM AT LOW CHANCE TO AFFECT
MAINLY THOSE SC COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. CLOUDINESS HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARDS DUE TO ONGOING VARIABLY SKY CONDITIONS AND THE TRAPPED
MOISTURE BELOW 700 MB AS ADVERTISED BY VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT
DISPLAYS ACROSS THE FA. MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY TWEAKED...TOWARDS THE
UPWARD SIDE DUE TO MORE CLOUDINESS AND THREAT OF PCPN.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...........................
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEDGE DOWN THE
COAST THIS AFTN...INTERACTING WITH A COASTAL TROUGH THAT SEEMS TO
BE EVER-PRESENT JUST OFFSHORE. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CHARLESTON, SC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DROP WEAKLY TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT.
AREAS OF SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH HAVE BEEN TRYING TO PUSH
ONSHORE TODAY...DRIVEN BY THE E/NE FLOW BETWEEN THE SURFACE WEDGE
AND COASTAL TROUGH. THE MID-LEVELS OF THE COLUMN...THOSE ABOVE
750MB...ARE VERY DRY...AND THE CONTINENTAL AIR MASS IS DRIER THAN
THAT OFFSHORE. THIS IS PRECLUDING MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
MAKING IT ONSHORE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT...FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST...WITH BEST
CHANCE ALONG THE GRAND STRAND AND DOWN TOWARDS THE SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER. THE NAM FORECAST PROFILES ARE HANDLING THE CLOUD COVER BEST
TODAY...SO USING THIS AS A GUIDE EXPECT LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH BECOMES MORE STRONGLY ENTRENCHED
LOCALLY CLOUD COVER WILL WANE...BUT EXPECT ONCE AGAIN QUITE A BIT
OF STRATUS AROUND TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT OVERALL COOLING AND
HAVE AGAIN SIDED WITH THE LAV NUMBERS...AND AM FORECASTING LOWS
AROUND 60 IN THE FAR WESTERN ZONES...TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE GRAND
STRAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER EASTERN CONUS BREAKS DOWN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT WAVES DROP
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE PICTURE
IS A LITTLE MUDDLED DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND A
DIVERGENCE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
HAS A FRONTAL SYSTEM DRAPED ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ON SUNDAY
LIFTING NORTH ON MONDAY INTO COASTAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR A CLOUDY MONDAY WITH
POPS STEADILY INCREASING FROM SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE MORNING TO
LIKELY OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY HOWEVER LOOKS TO BE A DECENT DAY WITH
MINIMAL CHANCES OF PRECIP AND A GOOD BIT OF SUN...ESPECIALLY EARLY
ON. DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY POP A CU FIELD IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THE CIRRUS SHIELD WILL STEADILY INCREASE IN
ADVANCE OF MONDAYS FRONTAL SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
SEASONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...FORECAST MODELS FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING
THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF OPERATIONAL
MODELS SHOW A RATHER LETHARGIC SHORTWAVE THAT WAVERS BETWEEN AN
OPEN WAVE AND CLOSED LOW. I HAVE MAINTAINED THE GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY TRENDING DOWN THEREAFTER.
THE AFOREMENTIONED OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE WITH REGARDS TO THE
MID LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS KEEPS A
WEAKNESS AROUND THE AREA...MUCH LIKE WE HAVE SEEN THIS WEEK WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. WPC FAVORS MORE
BLENDING WITH ECMWF SOLUTIONS SO I HAVE BACKED OFF THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BEYOND THIS...A
STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT THE
FRONT LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED AND INTRODUCED LOWER CHANCE
POPS FOR THE NEW DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SATURDAY.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...I GENERALLY ADDED A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS
THE BOARD TO WPC GUIDANCE AS THE WESTERLY FLOW THAT IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP SHOULD ALLOW A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO WARRANT. HOWEVER
MOST VALUES ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...-DZ/-RA POSSIBLE AT KCRE/KMYR OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS
LINGERING MVFR POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A WEAKENING COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
LATEST RADAR DEPICTS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS KMYR/KCRE BUT
DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO CREATE ANY RESTRICTIONS. ANTICIPATE
POSSIBILITY OF MVFR DUE TO LOW CIGS OCCUR BEFORE DAYBREAK ALONG THE
COAST. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS. AFTER DAYBREAK...ANY MVFR DUE TO LOW
CIGS COULD LINGER INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/MVFR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MVFR/IFR CIGS ON WEDNESDAY/
POSSIBLY THURSDAY.
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM SATURDAY...SCEC ALL WATERS TO CONTINUE. TWEAKED
NE WINDS A KNOT OR 3 HIER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND 1ST LOOK AT
00Z GUIDANCE. SIG. SEAS TO RUN 3 TO 5 FT...EXCEPT A FOOT LOWER
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO LITTLE RIVER INLET DUE TO THE SHADOW EFFECTS
FROM A NE WIND AND THE CONFIGURATION OF THE COASTLINE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..................................
AS OF 730 PM SATURDAY...SCA WILL BE LOWERED TO SCEC FOR THE ILM NC
WATERS...AND A SCEC WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ILM SC WATERS.
THE SCEC FOR ALL WATERS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THRU MIDDAY SUNDAY.
MODESTLY TIGHTENED SFC PG ACROSS THE WATERS WILL PRODUCE NE 15 TO
OCCASIONALLY 20 KT OF WINDS OVERNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 3
TO 5 FT...EXCEPT 2 TO 4 FT SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO LITTLE RIVER
INLET. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RUN 5 TO 6 SECONDS. NOT MUCH OF ANY
GROUND SWELL TO SPEAK OF.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...........................
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE COAST AND A
COASTAL TROUGH POSITIONED ABOUT 50 MILES OFFSHORE...CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE COASTAL WATERS PINCHED IN BETWEEN. THIS IS CREATING GUSTY
NE WINDS OF 15-25 KTS...AND SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FT THIS AFTN. A SLOW
DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH...WEAKENING THE GRADIENT...BUT SPEEDS OF
10-20 KTS WILL REMAIN INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SLIGHTLY
LOWER SPEEDS WILL ALLOW WAVE HEIGHTS TO DROP TO BELOW 6 FT...AND
THE SCA SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPIRE AT 8PM FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS.
THEREAFTER...A SCEC MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
NEAR TERM AS SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN 3-5 FT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS ON SUNDAY
WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS ON MONDAY AS OVERALL
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS. SEAS OF AROUND 3 FT ON SUNDAY WILL
DECREASE TO AROUND 2 FT ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...A MODEST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL GREET
MARINERS TUESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT INITIALLY...LESS THAN TEN KNOTS. AS WE
PROGRESS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...THE FLOW WILL BACK TO MORE OF A
DUE NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY SLOWLY. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WINDS
ARE BACK TO A NORTHEAST DIRECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SIGNIFICANT SEAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOW
SIDE CITING THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS AND CHANGES IN THE
FETCH...GENERALLY 1-3 TO 2-4 FEET.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...COLBY
NEAR TERM...DOUGH
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL/8
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1035 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE ACROSS BUFFALO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO LAKE ERIE TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. A LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE LAKES PULLING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO UP THE OHIO VALLEY LATER SATURDAY THEN
ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LAKES MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BAND OF POST FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. THE HRRR IS SHOWING THIS BAND TRYING TO
FALL APART AS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH BEFORE FILLING IN AGAIN TOWARDS MORNING AS THE TROUGH
AXIS PIVOTS AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. STILL THINKING CHANCES ARE PRETTY
GOOD FOR SEEING SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT FOR THE TOLEDO AREA AND
ACROSS NRN AND NE OHIO ON TUESDAY. DURATION COULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF
IN NW OHIO...LASTING FOR A MAYBE A FEW HOURS IN THE EAST BEFORE
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ARRIVES. TWEAKED MINS IN A FEW AREAS
OVERNIGHT...RAISING TEMPERATURES FROM FINDLAY TO SANDUSKY BY A
COUPLE DEGREES WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...BUT
LIKELY AHEAD OF THE RAIN. TWEAKED A FEW OF THE COOLER SPOTS DOWN
IN THE EAST (BJJ/YNG) WHERE TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 50S. ALSO
LOWERED HIGHS ON TUESDAY BY SEVERAL DEGREES IN NW OHIO AS
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER BEHIND THE FRONT UNLESS WE
CAN GET ANY DECENT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. MODEL SOUNDING SUGGEST
THAT WILL BE HARD TO DO WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION
NEAR 900MB.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SE
ACROSS LAKE ERIE TUE MORNING. THE STRONG VORT MAX WITH THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE THE FORCING TO GENERATE A BAND OF SHRA AND
A FEW POSSIBLE TSRA THAT SHOULD MOVE ESE TO NEAR CLE BY 12Z TUE
THEN WORK ACROSS THE EAST INTO TUE AFTERNOON. COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR TUE AFTERNOON THAT
WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHRA GOING IN THE EAST UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. QPF WITH THIS EVENT LOOKS TO RANGE FROM A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN THE SW TO A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN
INCH IN THE NE.
TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS
THEN TEMPS ON TUE WILL BE COOLER ALSO DUE TO THE CLOUDS ALONG WITH
THE SHRA AND COOLER AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER THE SHRA THREAT TUE EVE...CLOUDS SHOULD BE DECREASING SOME
THUS HELPING FOR A COLDER NIGHT WITH LOWS 47 TO 52 FOR MOST OF THE
AREA.
AN ISOLATED SHRA COULD STILL OCCUR IN NW PA WED DUE TO UPPER
TROUGHING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED SOUTH INTO THE AREA
SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL THU NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST LATER WED THRU THU SO TEMPS WILL MODERATE A
LITTLE WARMER ON WED AND MORE SO ON THU. STRONGER STORMS LOOK
POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT ON FRI BUT SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE AREA
THU NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THIS PERIOD TO
COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS.
A FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH A DRY SLOT FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THE MODEL DIFFER ON
THE QPF AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THE ECMWF HAS A CLOSED LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL HAVE A
DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER NE OH
AND NW PA...MORE LAKE INDUCED WITH THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE NEAR 18C. THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTION SEEM BETTER. NONE
THE LESS IT WILL BE COOL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IF NOT A LITTLE MORE.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AS THE ECMWF TRIES TO KEEP THINGS COOL. STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MARCH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO FAR RADAR UPSTREAM SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF
PRECIPITATION HEADED OUR WAY. PROBLEM IS...MODELS SHOW THE
ACTIVITY SLOWING DOWN OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER OHIO TOMORROW. LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOLLOW THE PRECIPITATION TOMORROW. SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF DRIZZLE EXPECTED AS WELL. SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY TRY
TO TAKE PLACE IN THE WEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SOMEWHAT LIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL LAST THROUGH MID WEEK
BEFORE CONDITIONS CHANGE DRAMATICALLY.
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AS THE
COLD ADVECTION IS VERY WEAK ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SOME
SHOWERS...DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE LAST GOOD DAYS ON THE LAKE
FOR AWHILE.
A THREAT OF MUCH STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON
FRIDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. THE MAIN THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WIND SPEEDS COULD EVEN GET STRONG ENOUGH AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SOME QUESTION HOW
STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GFS MODEL
HAS WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE
MORE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. AT THIS TIME LEANING TOWARD THE
LIGHTER WINDS...AS THE GFS SEEMS TO OVERDO THE WINDS AT TIMES. THE
THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.
SOME QUESTION HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS TRIES TO BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE
LAKE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A TROF AND THAT WOULD
MEAN THE THREAT FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WOULD CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. NONE THE LESS WHICH EVER MODEL IS CORRECT THE LAKE WILL
BE CHOPPY ESPECIALLY EAST OF CLEVELAND LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KEC
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1115 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A LONE SHOWER COULD AFFECT A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE
IN YORK AND ADAMS CO BTWN 03Z-04Z. SOME MEAGER CAPES NOTED IN THE
RAP OUTPUT ACROSS THIS AREA AT 02Z. HOWEVER...COOLING/STABILIZING
BLYR AND PASSAGE OF UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING AN END THE
SHOWER THREAT BY ARND MIDNIGHT. SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS
OVER EASTERN PA SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY ARND 06Z...AS
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC WAA ALOFT SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE.
CENTRAL PA WILL BE IN BTWN SHORTWAVES TONIGHT...ONE DEPARTING THE
E COAST AND NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS. LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE
BTWN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY FCST OVERNIGHT. MCLEAR SKIES
AND A CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG.
LATEST SREF AND RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST...UNLIKE MANY RECENT NIGHTS...SOME
OF THE FOG COULD AFFECT EVEN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. DWPTS IN THE
50S SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT FOR LATE SEPT...WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE L/M 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW OVR THE GRT LKS WILL DIVE SE ACROSS
PA ON TUESDAY. DECREASING STABILITY UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL HELP SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT
CAPE WILL BE MODEST...BUT FORECAST TOTAL-TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 50
ARE USUALLY A GOOD INDICATOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION.
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF
0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS...BUT AMOUNTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER...0.15
TO 0.25 OF AN INCH...ACROSS THE FAR NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A FEW DEG COOLER AND IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN
ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND.
CLOUDIER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAN RECENT DAYS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROF WED...HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT
MOISTURE-LIMITED AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS ON
WED HOWEVER WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. WARMER WEATHER MAKES
A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO NORMALS.
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN
EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG ALREADY FORMING...ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 03Z TAFS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN OVERNIGHT. DID HIT THE FOG
A LITTLE HARDER THAN IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...ESPECIALLY WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS THIS EVENING THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
THERE WAS LITTLE FOG LAST NIGHT...AS MID AND HI CLDS
MOVED IN OVERNIGHT.
PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST ON TUE.
WED...AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE GR LAKES INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BRING SCT RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CIGS PROBABLE AT NIGHT.
OUTLOOK /THU THROUGH SAT/...
THU...LOW CIGS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST PROVIDES AN EAST-SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW.
FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PSBL ASSOC WITH GUSTY FROPA.
SAT...BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE OVER NWRN AREAS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1039 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A LONE SHOWER COULD AFFECT A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE
IN YORK AND ADAMS CO BTWN 03Z-04Z. SOME MEAGER CAPES NOTED IN THE
RAP OUTPUT ACROSS THIS AREA AT 02Z. HOWEVER...COOLING/STABILIZING
BLYR AND PASSAGE OF UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING AN END THE
SHOWER THREAT BY ARND MIDNIGHT. SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS
OVER EASTERN PA SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY ARND 06Z...AS
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC WAA ALOFT SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE.
CENTRAL PA WILL BE IN BTWN SHORTWAVES TONIGHT...ONE DEPARTING THE
E COAST AND NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS. LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE
BTWN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY FCST OVERNIGHT. MCLEAR SKIES
AND A CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG.
LATEST SREF AND RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST...UNLIKE MANY RECENT NIGHTS...SOME
OF THE FOG COULD AFFECT EVEN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. DWPTS IN THE
50S SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT FOR LATE SEPT...WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE L/M 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW OVR THE GRT LKS WILL DIVE SE ACROSS
PA ON TUESDAY. DECREASING STABILITY UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL HELP SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT
CAPE WILL BE MODEST...BUT FORECAST TOTAL-TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 50
ARE USUALLY A GOOD INDICATOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION.
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF
0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS...BUT AMOUNTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER...0.15
TO 0.25 OF AN INCH...ACROSS THE FAR NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A FEW DEG COOLER AND IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN
ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND.
CLOUDIER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAN RECENT DAYS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROF WED...HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT
MOISTURE-LIMITED AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS ON
WED HOWEVER WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. WARMER WEATHER MAKES
A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO NORMALS.
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN
EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN OVERNIGHT. DID HIT THE FOG
A LITTLE HARDER THAN IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...ESPECIALLY WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS THIS EVENING THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
THERE WAS LITTLE FOG LAST NIGHT...AS MID AND HI CLDS
MOVED IN OVERNIGHT.
PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST ON TUE.
WED...AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE GR LAKES INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BRING SCT RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CIGS PROBABLE AT NIGHT.
OUTLOOK /THU THROUGH SAT/...
THU...LOW CIGS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST PROVIDES AN EAST-SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW.
FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PSBL ASSOC WITH GUSTY FROPA.
SAT...BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE OVER NWRN AREAS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
844 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A LONE SHOWER COULD AFFECT A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE
IN FRANKLIN AND ADAMS CO BTWN 00Z-02Z. SOME MEAGER CAPES NOTED
IN THE RAP OUTPUT ACROSS THIS AREA AT 00Z. HOWEVER...COOLING/STABILIZING
BLYR AND PASSAGE OF UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING AN END THE
SHOWER THREAT BY LATE EVENING. SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS
OVER EASTERN PA SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY ARND MIDNIGHT...AS
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC WAA ALOFT SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE.
CENTRAL PA WILL BE IN BTWN SHORTWAVES TONIGHT...ONE DEPARTING THE
E COAST AND NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS. LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE
BTWN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY FCST OVERNIGHT. MCLEAR SKIES
AND A CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG.
LATEST SREF AND RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST...UNLIKE MANY RECENT NIGHTS...SOME
OF THE FOG COULD AFFECT EVEN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. DWPTS IN THE
50S SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT FOR LATE SEPT...WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE L/M 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW OVR THE GRT LKS WILL DIVE SE ACROSS
PA ON TUESDAY. DECREASING STABILITY UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL HELP SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT
CAPE WILL BE MODEST...BUT FORECAST TOTAL-TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 50
ARE USUALLY A GOOD INDICATOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION.
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF
0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS...BUT AMOUNTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER...0.15
TO 0.25 OF AN INCH...ACROSS THE FAR NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A FEW DEG COOLER AND IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN
ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND.
CLOUDIER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAN RECENT DAYS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROF WED...HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT
MOISTURE-LIMITED AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS ON
WED HOWEVER WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. WARMER WEATHER MAKES
A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO NORMALS.
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN
EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN OVERNIGHT. DID HIT THE FOG
A LITTLE HARDER THAN IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...ESPECIALLY WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS THIS EVENING THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
THERE WAS LITTLE FOG LAST NIGHT...AS MID AND HI CLDS
MOVED IN OVERNIGHT.
PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST ON TUE.
WED...AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE GR LAKES INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BRING SCT RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CIGS PROBABLE AT NIGHT.
OUTLOOK /THU THROUGH SAT/...
THU...LOW CIGS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST PROVIDES AN EAST-SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW.
FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PSBL ASSOC WITH GUSTY FROPA.
SAT...BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE OVER NWRN AREAS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
814 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A LONE SHOWER COULD AFFECT A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE
IN FRANKLIN AND ADAMS CO BTWN 00Z-02Z. SOME MEAGER CAPES NOTED
IN THE RAP OUTPUT ACROSS THIS AREA AT 00Z. HOWEVER...COOLING/STABILIZING
BLYR AND PASSAGE OF UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING AN END THE
SHOWER THREAT BY LATE EVENING. SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS
OVER EASTERN PA SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY ARND MIDNIGHT...AS
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC WAA ALOFT SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE.
CENTRAL PA WILL BE IN BTWN SHORTWAVES TONIGHT...ONE DEPARTING THE
E COAST AND NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS. LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE
BTWN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY FCST OVERNIGHT. MCLEAR SKIES
AND A CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG.
LATEST SREF AND RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST...UNLIKE MANY RECENT NIGHTS...SOME
OF THE FOG COULD AFFECT EVEN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. DWPTS IN THE
50S SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT FOR LATE SEPT...WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE L/M 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW OVR THE GRT LKS WILL DIVE SE ACROSS
PA ON TUESDAY. DECREASING STABILITY UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL HELP SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT
CAPE WILL BE MODEST...BUT FORECAST TOTAL-TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 50
ARE USUALLY A GOOD INDICATOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION.
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF
0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS...BUT AMOUNTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER...0.15
TO 0.25 OF AN INCH...ACROSS THE FAR NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A FEW DEG COOLER AND IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN
ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND.
CLOUDIER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAN RECENT DAYS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROF WED...HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT
MOISTURE-LIMITED AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS ON
WED HOWEVER WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. WARMER WEATHER MAKES
A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO NORMALS.
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN
EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW CU PRESENT LATE THIS AFT. ADJUSTED 21Z TAFS FOR THIS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
THE REGION IS EXPERIENCING SOME LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING
ACROSS THE SKY AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH LOCALIZED FOG MAY AGAIN BE A CONCERN
LATER TONIGHT. IF THE UPSTREAM CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING GR
LAKES FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE IN QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...THIS WOULD
PUT A DAMPER ON THE FOG AND ASSURE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
THE DAY TUESDAY.
TUE-WED...AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE GR LAKES INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BRING SCT RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CIGS PROBABLE AT NIGHT.
OUTLOOK /THU THROUGH SAT/...
THU...LOW CIGS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST PROVIDES AN EAST-SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW.
FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PSBL ASSOC WITH GUSTY FROPA.
SAT...BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE OVER NWRN AREAS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
155 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEAKEN
ON SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
THE LOW SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 150 AM...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE CWA
OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS. I WILL PRIMARILY UPDATE TO ADJUST SKY GRIDS
TO RECENT OBS AND TRENDS. IN ADDITION...I WILL DROP POPS TO ZERO
THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT.
AS OF 1030 PM EDT SATURDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE SEEMS TO AGREE WELL
WITH OBSERVED TEMPERATURE TRENDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST NC PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS WHERE CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS...TWEAKED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION BY BLENDING IN LATEST ADJMAV WHICH YIELDED SLIGHTLY LOWER
MINS THROUGH THE ABOVE MENTIONED ZONES. THIS MODIFICATION ALSO
REINFORCED WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
WHERE COOLING HAS BEEN STUNTED SOMEWHAT. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
REGARDING INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS
MOIST UPGLIDE REGIME ENHANCES. LASTLY...ALSO BLENDED IN LATEST HPC
QPF GUIDANCE THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY TO UPDATE CURRENT STORM TOTAL
PRECIPIATION AMOUNTS. HOWEVER THIS ACTION DID NOT LEND ITSELF TO
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 220 PM...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MIX IN FROM THE NE ALIGNED IN A
PERSISTENT SFC WEDGE. THE MAJORITY OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND CLOUD
COVER HAS PUSHED OUT OF THE CWFA WITH LINGER BKN/OVC CONDS ACROSS
THE SW/RN ZONES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES
THROUGH MAX HEATING...REMAINING A CAT OR SO BELOW NORMAL.
A QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS IN STORE WITH A SUBTROPICAL HIGH
REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS. RAP SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A DECOUPLED
ATMOS OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING MINS TO REACH NORMAL LEVELS NORTH AND A
COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS. THERE COULD
BE SOME MTN VALLEY FG DEVELOPING ARND SUNRISE...BUT TDDS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY HIGH FOR MUCH OF A DENSE THREAT.
LOW TO MID LEVEL ATL MOISTURE BEGINS PUSHING IN EARLY SUN MORNING
AND THE SRN ZONES WILL SEE THE BEST CLOUD COVER AFT DAYBREAK. THE
NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...WHICH KEEPS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE ALIGNED ALONG THE WEDGE BNDRY. SRN FA SOUNDINGS
SHOW NEARLY SATURATED COLUMNS BY THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW
BEGINS ADVECTING GOM MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. STILL...THE MAIN FLOW
WILL BE ATL...WHICH WILL INSTIGATE GOOD MECH LIFT ACROSS THE SRN
ESCARPMENT...NE GA AND SW NC MTNS BY THE AFTERNOON. POPS WILL RISE
QUICKLY INTO THE HIGH CHANCE AND LOW/END LIKELY RANGE SUN AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FAR WEST...HOWEVER PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW
THROUGH THE NRT PERIOD AS INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW KEEPING CONVEC
PRECIP WELL SOUTH. POPS WILL REMAIN NIL OUTSIDE THE MTNS AND SW/RN
ZONES. MAX TEMPS WILL FEATURE A SW/NE COOL/WARM GRADIENT DUE TO
CLOUD COVER AND DIFF HEATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...AN H5 SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT FROM THE GULF
COAST TO THE EXTREME SRN APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MERGE WITH A
NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE SWINGING EAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. AT LOWER
LEVELS...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SET UP
OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ACROSS AT LEAST THE SW HALF OF THE
AREA. DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION MON WITH THE
MERGING UPPER WAVES AND PASSING UPPER LEVEL JET DIVERGENCE. AN 850
MB LOW CENTER WILL LIKELY RIDE NE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...SETTING UP ADDITIONAL WEAK FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE
AREA. THESE FEATURES WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE E OR NE TO THE COAST
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...WITH CONTINUED LIGHT PRECIPITATION WRAPPING
BACK OVER THE REGION ON THE W SIDE OF THE LOW.
THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR HEAVY QPF ARE A FAIRLY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER IN THE NC PIEDMONT AT ONSET...AS WELL AS THE STRONG POTENTIAL
FOR GULF COASTAL CONVECTION AND CONVECTION NEAR A WEAK WEDGE
BOUNDARY IMPEDING THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE. SO..THE QUESTION IS NOT
WHETHER IT WILL RAIN...BUT HOW MUCH. THE 12Z GFS IS PRODUCING A
BULLSEYE OF NEARLY 6 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR...BUT
IT FEATURES LITTLE TO NO GULF COASTAL CONVECTION. THIS SOLUTION
SEEMS UNLIKELY...AND THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN HEAVILY ON A
MODEL BLEND WITH A HEAVY NOD TOWARD THE DRIER SREF MEAN AND LATEST
ECM QPF. IN ADDITION...WITH A WEAK SURFACE CAD LAYER PERSISTING OR
REDEVELOPING AS THE RAIN ARRIVES...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LARGELY
SHUNTED SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING EVENT. WITH 850 TO 500
MB LAPSE RATES RATHER WEAK OVER THE SFC HIGH...RAINFALL RATES SHOULD
NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FLASH FLOODING. DURATION RAINFALL
ALONG MAIN STEMS AND THE MOST FLOOD PRONE AREAS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED...BUT ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR MUCH OF A
HYDRO THREAT GIVEN EXPECTED QPF/DURATION. STILL...AN HWO MENTION
SEEMS WARRANTED FOR AT LEAST THE HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY. A SMALLER
THAN MOS DIURNAL RANGE ON TEMPS WILL BE FEATURED WITH CAD CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SAT...A WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS A DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHOULD CROSS THE REGION
THU...WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP BY FRI IN LIGHT OF A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES LATE SAT INTO SUN.
AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE WEDGE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION BY
TUE NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THU...YIELDING CONSIDERABLE LLVL
CLOUDINESS AND COOL NE WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD. NE WINDS SHOULD
VEER TO THE SE BY THU NIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFT
EAST WHILE AN ACTIVE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. BOTH THE NEW 12Z GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL REACH
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY AROUND SAT 00Z AND OFF TO OUR EAST BY
AROUND 12Z SAT. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS MINIMAL GIVEN
THE LATE OF GOOD UPPER FORCING/BOUNCY. IN FACT...MODELS HAVE TRENDED
A BIT DRIER AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AS IT CROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HENCE...HAVE INHERITED LOW END CHANCE POPS DURING THE FROPA.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY SAT AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE AND A COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 3-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...A WEAK RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THE 6Z TAF PERIOD. THIS
PATTERN WILL PROVIDE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS...PERIODS OF CALM
EXPECTED BEFORE SUNRISE. BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND
GUIDANCE...I WILL INDICATE BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES BETWEEN 050-060 KFT
ALONG WITH CIRRUS. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL LIKELY SPREAD SW TO NE AFTER
6Z MON.
OUTLOOK...HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE START OF THE
WORK WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF UNSETTLE WEATHER MOVING NORTH
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. PERIODS OF CONTINUOUS MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL AFFECT THE AREA MON/TUE PRODUCING CIG AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 93% HIGH 94% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 68% HIGH 82% HIGH 97% HIGH 90%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 98% HIGH 93% HIGH 96% HIGH 92%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...NED
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1146 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...ANY SMALL -SHRA CHANCES EARLY
THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.
DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. LEE LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN CO WITH TROUGHING NORTHEAST TO A
LOW OVER NORTHERN ONT. BROAD SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUED TO BRING SEASONABLY WARM AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WITH EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS MUCH OF MN/IA/WI...AROUND 10F ABOVE NORMAL. WV IMAGERY SHOWED
THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST IA. SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL IA/SOUTH-
CENTRAL COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY PRODUCING A FEW -SHRA
LIFTING NORTH NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER.
GFS WITH ITS USUAL 5F HIGH BIAS ON SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE MUCH OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST...OTHERWISE 27.12Z MODELS LOOK TO HAVE INITIALIZED
QUITE WELL. SOLUTIONS FOR TONIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT TREND SIMILAR TO
EACH OTHER AND THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. OVERALL SHORT-TERM FCST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS GOOD THIS CYCLE.
WEAK MID LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST IA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
TONIGHT THEN WEAKENS FURTHER SUN AS IT FINALLY SUCCUMBS TO INCREASED
BUILDING/FORCING OF THE UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE MUCH STRONGER MID
LEVEL LOW COMING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. BY LATE SUN LITTLE REMAINS
OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW AS IT IS SHOVED EAST/SOUTH OF THE REGION
BY THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING AND A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DROPPING TOWARD LK SUPERIOR.
LITTLE FORCING WITH STATIONARY MID LEVEL LOW TONIGHT. ANY CAPE AXIS
IS WEST OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AND
CAPE DEPENDENT ON MODEL SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 60-65F RANGE BEING
CORRECT. BASED ON SFC OBS...DEW POINTS ALONG/EAST OF I-35 MOSTLY IN
THE 55-60F RANGE...WITH ANY CAPE LOOKING TO QUICKLY WANE WITH LOSS
OF DIURNAL HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. LEFT
TONIGHT DRY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LIGHTER WINDS ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER GRADIENT WINDS A BIT LIGHTER
THAN THOSE OF LAST NIGHT AS WELL. WITH LITTLE CHANGE OF THE LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS ADDED PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING RADIATIONAL FOG
MENTION TO ALL THE RIVER VALLEYS AND THE LOW LAYING AREAS OF CENTRAL
WI. MODELS DEVELOP 500-1000 J/KG MU/SB CAPE OVER THE AREA SUN
AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN THIS BASED ON SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 60-65F
RANGE. WITH EVAPO-TRANSPIRATION CONTINUING TO WIND DOWN WITH
MATURING/SENESCING CROPS ACROSS THE REGION...MORE REALISTIC DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AS THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WI CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE GREAT LAKES
SFC HIGH. EVEN WITH 60-65F DEW POINTS...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING 50-
75 J/KG OF CIN SUN AFTERNOON. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING/LIFT/
CONVERGENCE SIGNALS SUN WITH A WEAK SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA AND
ANY REMAINING ENERGY WITH THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH PASSING WELL
SOUTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA AND LEFT SUNDAY DRY. WEAK SFC GRADIENTS
OVER THE AREA AGAIN SUN NIGHT AND MAY YET NEED MORE MENTION OF
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG INTO MON MORNING. WITH
THE RATHER TIGHT MODEL CONSENSUS...USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE
LOWS/HIGHS FOR TONIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT...ANY SMALL -SHRA
CHANCES MON...SHRA/TSRA CHANCE SPREADING IN TUE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES
THRU THE PERIOD.
27.12Z MODELS REACHING A TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MON/MON EVENING.
TREND IS TOWARD SLOWER AND MORE OPEN WAVE OF THE EARLIER RUNS WITH
THIS FEATURE. CONSENSUS SLOWLY IMPROVING ON THE ROCKIES SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TO EJECT NORTH-NORTHEAST THRU THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS MON
NIGHT-TUE NIGHT. TREND IS A BIT FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE LIFTING
NORTH AS MODELS TREND STRONGER ON THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DIG INTO
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES BEHIND IT TUE/TUE NIGHT. FCST
CONFIDENCE IN THE MON THRU TUE NIGHT PERIOD IS ON THE GOOD SIDE.
WITH THE SLOWER/WEAKER TREND OF THE SHORTWAVE TO DROP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES MON/MON EVENING...BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS/
FORCING PASS NORTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA. STILL SOME WEAK TO MDT 1000-
850MB FN CONVERGENCE AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE
TO PASS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA MON WITH PW VALUES
OVER AN INCH. CONTINUED THE SMALL -SHRA CHANCES NORTHEAST OF I-94 ON
MON FOR NOW WHICH BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS. SLOWER TREND
OF THE TROUGH/FRONT MEANS A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE POST FRONTAL LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND ANOTHER WARM/ABOVE NORMAL DAY FOR MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA. RAISED MON HIGHS SOME 3 TO 5F ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S. QUIET/GENERALLY
COOLER MON NIGHT/TUE AS CAN HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT NOSES
INTO THE AREA. COOLEST OF THE AIR OVER THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST
AREA MON NIGHT/TUE...WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO LATE SEPT NORMALS.
SLIGHTLY FASTER TREND OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH LIFTING NORTH THRU
PLAINS TUE/TUE NIGHT KEEPS IT AND THE LOWER LEVEL AND SURFACE
FEATURES/FORCING ON A BIT MORE WESTERLY TRACK AND SOME DELAY ON
THEIR ARRIVAL INTO THE FCST AREA TUE NIGHT. INCREASING/STRONGER
LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT SPREADS
INTO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE
NIGHT. INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER LIMITED TUE NIGHT BUT GIVEN
STRENGTH/DEPTH OF THE FORCING/LIFT SIGNAL...CONTINUED A SMALL TSRA
CHANCE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA LATER TUE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGH MON
OTHERWISE USED A BLEND OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR LOWS/HIGHS
MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WED THRU THU...
LINGERING SHRA CHANCES FRI...COOLING TEMPERATURES.
GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG 27.00Z/27.12Z MODELS WED AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
ENERGY LIFTS FROM NEAR THE ND/MN/MAN BORDER NORTHWARD THRU MAN AND
THE NEXT ENERGY DIGS ACROSS WY. BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE WY ENERGY
AS IT THEN HEADS TOWARD THE REGION WED NIGHT/THU...FAVORING A
COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS ON STRENGTH/TIMING. IMPROVING
COMPROMISE CONSENSUS THU NIGHT/FRI FOR YET A THIRD STRONGER PIECE OF
ENERGY TO DROP INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...DEEPENING IT OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR FRI/SAT. UPPER MIDWEST IS UNDER COOLER NORTHWEST
FLOW OR THE COOL TROUGH ALOFT FRI/SAT. FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE
TO GOOD WED THRU SAT.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO MAN WED PUSHES A ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL
THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT INTO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST 2/3 TO 3/4 OF
THE FCST AREA WED...BIT SLOWER THAN EARLIER MODEL RUNS. MOISTURE
AXIS WITH PW VALUES OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES PUSHES INTO THE AREA BUT THE
CAPE AXIS GENERALLY REMAINS WEST OF THE FCST AREA WED. HIGHER
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE FCST
AREA. THE DEEPER/STRONGER LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING
TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA WED NIGHT/THU. THIS WITH
FALLING HGTS ALOFT AND SOME PV ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE/MAIN TROUGH AXIS. CONSENSUS RAIN CHANCES IN THE 60-70
PERCENT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WED NIGHT/THU WELL TRENDED FOR
NOW AND WILL LIKELY TREND TOWARD 80-100 PERCENT ONE OR BOTH OF
THESE PERIODS AS THEY APPROACH. CAPE PROGGED TO BE ON THE WEAK
SIDE WED NIGHT/THU BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH/DEPTH OF THE FORCING/
LIFT SIGNAL WILL CONTINUE WITH SCT TSRA IN THE FCST GRIDS THESE
PERIODS. SFC-850MB FRONT/TROUGH SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA THU NIGHT
TAKING THE BULK OF THE LOWER LEVEL FORCING/MOISTURE WITH IT. DEEP
MID LEVEL TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW WITH COOLER 850-500MB TEMPS
PROGGED OVER THE AREA FRI. COOLER TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH
RESIDUAL 925-850MB MOISTURE PRODUCE WEAK CAPE FRI AFTERNOON. -SHRA
CHANCES FRI APPEAR REASONABLE. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SAT.
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS TRENDING COOLER AND BELOW
NORMAL BY FRI/SAT LOOK GOOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014
THE ONLY CONCERN AT THE TAF SITES REMAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE AS
THE NIGHT GOES ON WITH TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS NOW DOWN TO
5F AT 4Z. SURFACE WINDS ARE AT ABOUT 4KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
WHICH IS A FAVORABLE COLD AIR DRAINAGE WIND OFF OF THE LA CROSSE
RIVER BASIN. WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE BELOW 10KTS ALL THE WAY
UP TO 10KFT BUT THERE REMAINS SOME HIGHER WINDS RIGHT AT THE
INVERSION. THE PAST FEW RAP SOUNDINGS HAVE ALSO BEEN SHOWING SOME
VERTICAL MOTIONS OCCURRING WHEN YOU WOULD PREFER TO HAVE MORE
SUBSIDENT AIR. THERE ISN/T ANY STRATUS SHOWING UP AT THE
MOMENT...SO EXPECT THAT IF THE FOG/STRATUS DOES FORM THAT IT WILL
BE CLOSER TO DAY BREAK. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
956 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
IT WAS AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
AS A INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN COLORADO. A COLD FRONT SWEEPING OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW
INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG
WINDS ALOFT PRODUCED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED WITH
A TSTORM SOUTH OF ALLIANCE EARLIER THIS EVENING. WITH THE SQUALL
LINE EAST OF OUR PANHANDLE COUNTIES...THE TORNADO WATCH WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM. ISOLATED TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...WITH SOME HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS FOR
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN ATOP ONE TO THREE INCHES
THAT FELL LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...
STRONG WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
700MB WINDS PEAK AROUND 65 KT BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND RAWLINS AND
THE COLORADO BORDER AND WHEATLAND. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH NOON TUESDAY. FINALLY...
ENOUGH COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TO LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO
8500 FT OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. UPDATED ZONES
ALREADY SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
CONVECTIVE LINE WAS ALREADY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON EXTENDING
FROM ROCK RIVER SSE TOWARDS THE DENVER METRO AREA. ATMOSPHERIC
DESTABILIZATION ALBEIT WEAK HAS BEEN UNDERWAY BEHIND THE MORNING
CONVECTION AND AHEAD OF THIS SECONDARY CONVECTIVE LINE. ALTHOUGH
LINGERING CLOUD COVER HAS INHIBITED IT SOME. 21Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACED
THE 1003MB LOW SOUTH OF PUEBLO WITH PRESSURE FALLS TO THE NORTH
ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR TOWARDS DENVER. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED
1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE NOSING INTO THE SRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS A BAND
OF 40-50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPROACHED FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT SATELLITE PIX SHOWED WAS LIFTING
NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT INTO
COLORADO BY 6 PM BEFORE CLOSING OFF NR THE WY/NE STATE LINE BY
MIDNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW NOW LOCATED NR PUEBLO WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AND DEEPEN TO
993MB BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES SO...LLVL SOUTHEAST FLOW
COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL SPEED MAX TO DRAW A
FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE EARLY THIS
EVENING. LATEST HRRR HAS DONE WELL WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION SO FAR
AND SUGGESTS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BE GREATEST WHILE STORM MODES
ARE DISCRETE...WITH EVEN A FEW ROTATING UPDRAFTS CONTAINING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE. THIS
WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE FROM EASTERN LARAMIE COUNTY EAST TO
SIDNEY. BY EARLY/MID-EVENING SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY
AS CONVECTION BECOMES A MORE HOMOGENEOUS AREA OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MANY OF
THESE AREAS OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE RECEIVED 1-2 INCHES THIS
MORNING AND WITH ANOTHER AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES ON ITS WAY OVERNIGHT.
THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WARRANTED TONIGHT. THE OTHER CONCERN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE AREA IS ITS IMPACT ON WINDS. SW/NE ORIENTED GRADIENTS
TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT CONTINUING THRU TUESDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL EVENT...THIS PUTS THE WIND PRONE AREAS
IN SE WYOMING UNDER THE GUN. EVEN THOUGH KCAG-KCPR GRADIENTS ARE A
BIT MARGINAL...H7 PROGS CONTINUE TO POINT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HIGH WIND SET-UP EARLY TUESDAY. WILL KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING
GOING AS INHERITED.
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE FOR A TIME NR THE PINE RIDGE
TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST BY MIDDAY. FLOW
WILL WESTERLY FOR TUESDAY...BUT THE CWFA WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY
THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE ROCKIES. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LESS.
THE NEXT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST THRU THE
CWFA FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVR THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS AND PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ON
TUESDAY...BACK INTO THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN
INTO THE 50S ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
PRETTY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IN PLACE. SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN
MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY ON THURS. NO PRECIP IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THURS WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND 0C. A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON FRI AND THEN CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH 700MB TEMPS RISING TO 5-10C. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT
IS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON THURS THROUGH SUN...IT WILL STILL BE
BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY WITH
GOOD MIXING IN PLACE. EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25-30
KT ON MOST AFTNS. PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE VERY
LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERAL RIDGING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A LACK OF MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 556 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. EXPECT PREVAILING IFR VIS IN THE RAIN. CDR WILL
ALSO ALSO SEE SOME LIFR CIGS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. THE RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER 03Z OVER SOUTHEAST WY AND AFTER
06Z IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY AND GUSTY.
GUSTS TO 30-35 KT WILL BE COMMON THROUGH TUES
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS INTO THE DISTRICTS THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
BRING WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS TO A LARGE PART OF THE
DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SOME AREAS IN THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE PICKED UP 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN THIS
MORNING AND ARE IN LINE FOR ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES...PERHAPS LOCALLY
HIGHER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH NOON TUESDAY. WIND
PRONE AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL BECOME VERY WINDY LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN
EFFECT. THE COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE LIGHTER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TUESDAY FOR WYZ106-110-116-117.
NE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NEZ002-003-019>021-054-
055-095-096.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
607 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
CONVECTIVE LINE WAS ALREADY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON EXTENDING
FROM ROCK RIVER SSE TOWARDS THE DENVER METRO AREA. ATMOSPHERIC
DESTABILIZATION ALBEIT WEAK HAS BEEN UNDERWAY BEHIND THE MORNING
CONVECTION AND AHEAD OF THIS SECONDARY CONVECTIVE LINE. ALTHOUGH
LINGERING CLOUD COVER HAS INHIBITED IT SOME. 21Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACED
THE 1003MB LOW SOUTH OF PUEBLO WITH PRESSURE FALLS TO THE NORTH
ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR TOWARDS DENVER. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED
1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE NOSING INTO THE SRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS A BAND
OF 40-50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPROACHED FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT SATELLITE PIX SHOWED WAS LIFTING
NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THIS FTR WILL LIFT INTO
COLORADO BY 6 PM BEFORE CLOSING OFF NR THE WY/NE STATELINE BY
MIDNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW NOW LOCATED NR PUEBLO WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AND DEEPEN TO
993MB BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES SO...LLVL SOUTHEAST FLOW
COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL SPEED MAX TO DRAW A
FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE EARLY THIS
EVENING. LATEST HRRR HAS DONE WELL WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION SO FAR
AND SUGGESTS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BE GREATEST WHILE STORM MODES
ARE DISCRETE...WITH EVEN A FEW ROTATING UPDRAFTS CONTAINING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE. THIS
WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE FROM EASTERN LARAMIE COUNTY EAST TO
SIDNEY. BY EARLY/MID-EVENING SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY
AS CONVECTION BECOMES A MORE HOMOGENEOUS AREA OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MANY OF
THESE AREAS OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE RECEIVED 1-2 INCHES THIS
MORNING AND WITH ANOTHER AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES ON ITS WAY OVERNIGHT.
THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WARRANTED TONIGHT. THE OTHER CONCERN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE AREA IS ITS IMPACT ON WINDS. SW/NE ORIENTED GRADIENTS
TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT CONTINUING THRU TUESDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL EVENT...THIS PUTS THE WIND PRONE AREAS
IN SE WYOMING UNDER THE GUN. EVEN THOUGH KCAG-KCPR GRADIENTS ARE A
BIT MARGINAL...H7 PROGS CONTINUE TO POINT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HIGH WIND SET-UP EARLY TUESDAY. WILL KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING
GOING AS INHERITED.
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE FOR A TIME NR THE PINE RIDGE
TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST BY MIDDAY. FLOW
WILL WESTERLY FOR TUESDAY...BUT THE CWFA WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY
THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE ROCKIES. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LESS.
THE NEXT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST THRU THE
CWFA FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVR THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS AND PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ON
TUESDAY...BACK INTO THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN
INTO THE 50S ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
PRETTY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IN PLACE. SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN
MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY ON THURS. NO PRECIP IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THURS WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND 0C. A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON FRI AND THEN CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH 700MB TEMPS RISING TO 5-10C. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT
IS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON THURS THROUGH SUN...IT WILL STILL BE
BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY WITH
GOOD MIXING IN PLACE. EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25-30
KTS ON MOST AFTNS. PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE VERY
LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERAL RIDGING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A LACK OF MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 556 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. EXPECT PREVAILING IFR VIS IN THE RAIN. CDR WILL
ALSO ALSO SEE SOME LIFR CIGS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. THE RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER 03Z OVER SOUTHEAST WY AND AFTER
06Z IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY AND GUSTY.
GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH TUES
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS INTO THE DISTRICTS THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
BRING WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS TO A LARGE PART OF THE
DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SOME AREAS IN THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE PICKED UP 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN THIS
MORNING AND ARE IN LINE FOR ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES...PERHAPS LOCALLY
HIGHER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH NOON TUESDAY. WIND
PRONE AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL BECOME VERY WINDY LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN
EFFECT. THE COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE LIGHTER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON MDT TUESDAY FOR
WYZ106-110-116-117.
NE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NEZ002-003-019>021-054-
055-095-096.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
336 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
332 AM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS
TODAY...AND THEN INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
COLD FRONT NOW SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW STRATUS
HAS MOVED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WHILE TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL
INTO THE 40S AND 50S UNDER A STEADY NORTHEAST WIND. WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS NOW EAST OF THE CWA EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY BUT WITH
THIS STRATUS LIKELY HANGING AROUND FOR SOME TIME THIS MORNING.
GUIDANCE APPEARING TO BE TOO QUICK SCATTERING OUT THESE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING AND TRYING TO INDICATE THERE WILL BE HOLES BY 12Z.
WITH THIS NOT A LIKELY SCENARIO HAVE GONE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH
TRENDS THIS MORNING AND DONT HAVE ANY REAL CLEARING UNTIL LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY OBSERVE A SCATTERING TREND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH AREAS NEAR THE LAKE HOLDING ONTO
THESE CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. DID LOWER HIGH TEMPS AS WELL AS
SLOWED TEMP TREND THIS MORNING...WITH IT POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS IN
FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA NOT MAKING IT OUT OF
THE 50S TODAY.
QUIET BUT COOL NIGHT TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS AND ANY
LINGERING CLOUD COVER COMING OFF THE LAKE PUSHES NORTH INTO
WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING...AND MOST LOCATIONS OBSERVING CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FAIRLY ENERGETIC VORT MAX CURRENTLY
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE NORTH INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE BRIEF TONIGHT AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EAST AND WE QUICKLY TRANSITION TOWARDS A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF WAA GOING INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MADE
MINIMAL CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AS
UNCERTAINTY WITH APPROACHING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD PLAY
INTO THE EXTENT OF WARMING THAT OCCURS.
THE BEST WAA/MOIST ADVECTION WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE WEST FOR MOST
OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT THIS WILL CHANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND
STRENGTHENING LLJ BECOMES ORIENTED TOWARDS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS
COINCIDING WITH FAIRLY ENERGETIC MID LEVEL FLOW...DEVELOPING
PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD BEGIN REACHING MOST LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AFTER THE MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME. DESPITE INCREASING
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INSTABILITY AXIS DOES APPEAR TO STAY
JUST TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH
THIS MAY BE THE CASE...STRENGTHENING LLJ COULD OFFSET ANY LACKING
INSTABILITY AND SO HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER WORDING OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA...WITH THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AREAS LIKELY
OBSERVING BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME AND DO FEEL THERE COULD BE SOME PERIODS
OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL...BUT THIS WONT LIKELY OCCUR UNTIL VERY
LATE IN THE NIGHT AND TOWARDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
BETTER AGREEMENT OBSERVED WITH VARYING MODELS THIS MORNING
REGARDING APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FEATURE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW SHOULD
LIFT RIGHT ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AREA INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN THURSDAY AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. CONTINUED LARGE SCALE SUPPORT DURING THIS PERIOD WILL ALLOW
FOR A WET DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. A SLOWER DEPARTING TREND WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND DID KEEP LIKELY WORDING LONGER INTO THE
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
DURING THIS TIME...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. SO AT THIS TIME...AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED
WITH ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT AM MORE CONCERNED WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY AS THE BEST
OVERALL MOIST ADVECTION OCCURS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* CIGS AROUND 1000 FT CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH
OCCASIONAL LOWERING TO 800-900 FT...ESPECIALLY AT ORD.
* MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH LIFTING
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
* NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR 10 KT
THIS AFTERNOON.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
LOW MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO BE SPREAD ACROSS THE THE TERMINALS AND
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. SOME PERIODIC LOWERING TO IFR WILL
LIKELY OCCUR BUT CIGS UPSTREAM HAVE IMPROVED SLIGHTLY IN SPOTS
LIKELY BECAUSE OF AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR. EXPECT THAT THE LOWEST
CIGS MAY BE OCCURRING NOW THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN MAY
START TO LIFT TOWARDS DAYBREAK...WITH STEADIER LIFTING THROUGH THE
MORNING. AM THINKING THAT RFD/DPA MAY SCATTER DURING THE AFTERNOON
AT SOME POINT WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKE KEEPING CLOUD COVER BROKEN AT
ORD/MDW/GYY THOUGH SOME SCATTERING COULD OCCUR. LOW LEVEL FLOW AT
CLOUD LEVEL TURNS SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING WHICH MAY PROMOTE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS PUSH IT FURTHER INLAND.
THEREFORE A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE AT DPA/RFD THIS
EVENING. WILL KEEP COVERAGE SCATTERED FOR NOW. NORTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY EASING THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND
GENERALLY BE NEAR 10 KT FOR THE MORNING/AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING
EAST THIS EVENING.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS HOVERING AROUND 1000 FT OVERNIGHT.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN OCCASIONAL LOWERING BELOW 1000
FT...ESPECIALLY AT ORD.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN BASES LIFTING DURING THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERING IS
POSSIBLE.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
THURSDAY...TSRA LIKELY...MVFR POSSIBLE. SOUTH WINDS TURNING
SOUTHWEST LATE.
FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA...MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY WEST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
257 AM CDT
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN SPEED INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TRACKS
NORTH TO MANITOBA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STEADY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WHEN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN VERY
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LOW TRACKING NORTHWEST OF THE LAKE AND
DEEPENING WHILE DOING SO. WHILE SPECIFICS ARE STILL UNDETERMINED
THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE
LAKE...STARTING OUT SOUTHERLY THEN TURNING WESTERLY AS A COLD
FRONT PASSES THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL OTHER MORE SUBTLE SURFACE
TROUGHS MAY CROSS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN WEST AND NORTHWEST. A PERIOD OF GALES STILL LOOKS
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN FRONT AS COLDER
AIR SPREADS IN. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE GOING INTO SUNDAY.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
313 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
Short-term forecast concerns include potential for dense fog across
the southern KILX CWA, as well as, approaching deck of low clouds
across the north. Clear skies/light winds have once again led to
the development of fog early this morning, particularly from the Saint
Louis area eastward across southern Illinois. HRRR shows fog
becoming dense across this area over the next few hours before
dissipating after 8am. So far the fog has not become widespread or
dense, but based on forecast soundings and the HRRR, have included
patchy dense fog south of I-70. Have also issued a Special Weather
Statement to highlight the low visbys.
07z/2am surface analysis shows cold front settling southward into
central Illinois, with a widespread area of low clouds noted to the
north of the boundary across the Great Lakes into north-central
Illinois. Latest IR satellite imagery shows leading edge of clouds
along the I-74 corridor. Main questions today will be how far south
these clouds will push and whether or not they will clear out this
afternoon. Satellite timing tools suggest the clouds will reach a
Rushville to Mattoon line by daybreak, but additional southward
progress appears unlikely as frontal boundary stalls. Will
therefore go with a cloudy forecast across the northern two-thirds
of the CWA this morning, with mostly sunny skies across the far
south. Despite continued northeasterly flow behind the front,
forecast soundings indicate a gradual dissipation of low-level
moisture as the day progresses. Have gone with decreasing clouds
through the afternoon accordingly. Due to the cloud cover and shift
in wind direction, temps will be quite a bit cooler today than in
recent days, with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 60s
along/north of I-74 to around 80 far south.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
Winds will veer to the southeast on Wednesday in response to an
approaching upper wave and its associated cold front. As a result,
temperatures will rise back into the upper 70s and lower 80s. As a
deep upper trough slowly approaches from the west, surface low
pressure is expected to develop over the Southern Plains on
Wednesday then lift northward into the Great Lakes by Thursday
night. Warm-advection showers/thunder will develop ahead of this
system Wednesday night: however, all model guidance keeps any precip
focused mainly across the western half of the CWA. Given this
slowing trend, have removed PoPs for all locations along/east of a
Paris to Effingham line. Further west, will go with likely PoPs
across the Illinois River Valley after midnight. As surface low
deepens and tracks just west of the area on Thursday, strong S/SW
flow will provide one more very warm day with highs in the upper
70s/lower 80s. Showers and thunderstorms will develop in advance of
a slowly approaching cold front, mainly focused across the west.
With strong upper dynamics in place and increasing amounts of
moisture flowing northward from the Gulf of Mexico, a few strong to
severe thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon across
west-central Illinois. Once low lifts into the Great Lakes, front
will get a solid push eastward by Thursday evening. Will go with
categorical PoPs across the board as the boundary interacts with a
moist and moderately unstable environment.
Cold front will push into Indiana by early Friday morning, with
perhaps a few lingering showers across the Wabash River Valley.
Main weather story late in the week will be the sharply cooler
conditions. 850mb temps are progged to drop into the 0 to -2C range
by Saturday morning, supporting daytime highs only in the lower
to middle 60s and overnight lows in the lower 40s this weekend.
Airmass will slowly moderate by early next week, with temperatures
climbing back to around 70 by Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
Cold front has just passed Pontiac and continues to make steady
progress south-southwest into our forecast area. Based on the
present movement, it appears it will push across PIA and BMI
between 05-06z with our southern TAF sites seeing FROPA in the
08z-10z time frame. Winds initially after frontal passage will
gust up to 20 kts from the northeast (020-050) but will begin
to diminish an hour or two after passage. Based on the latest
satellite trends, the MVFR and local IFR cigs will follow within
an hour of the wind shift with cigs in the 500-1000 foot range,
especially at KBMI with even the possibility for a little drizzle
and vsby restriction in fog for an hour or two as the lower clouds
settle in. The real challenge will be how quickly the lower cigs
are able to lift late tomorrow morning or early afternoon with
the low level moisture trapped under a developing subsidence
inversion. Latest guidance off the NAM-WRF and HRRR continues to
suggest we will see some breaks develop by late morning or early
afternoon so will continue with the previous trends in the TAFs
in scattering out the lower cigs by afternoon with some broken
VFR cigs into the late afternoon hours.
Ahead of the front, surface winds will be light and variable and
then switch into the northeast after frontal passage with speeds
in the 10 to 15 kts with a few gusts around 20 kts for a brief
time. Winds on Tuesday will be from the northeast at 8 to 15 kts.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
100 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
230 PM CDT
OUR STRETCH OF ONE WEEK OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS ABOUT TO GET
A TOUCH OF EARLY AUTUMN REALITY...AND A MUCH RUDER PUNCH LATE IN THE
WEEK. FORECAST CONCERNS WERE ON THE TEMPERATURE DROP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVE AND SUBSEQUENT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
CHANCES...THEN CLOUD COVER TUESDAY WHICH COULD GREATLY HINDER
WARMING...AND FINALLY THE STORM SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE...AND MKE RADAR ALL HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE SHARP COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVATIONS IN EAST CENTRAL WI HAVE DROPPED
BY AS MUCH AS 23 DEGREES IN AN HOUR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
SYNOPTIC AND LAKE-ENHANCED COOL SURGE. WHILE PRESSURE RISES WILL
EASE BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO THE PARENT LOW WELL OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...THIS FRONT SHOULD STILL COME BARRELING INTO NORTHEAST IL
BY 530-630 PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH AND A 20-25 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE DROP IN TWO-THREE HOURS. THIS FRONT WILL THEN CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EASING SOME IN
BAROCLINICITY.
ANAFRONTAL FORCING IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
WI. THIS MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND OMEGA WILL DIMINISH SOME AS
THIS FRONT SLIDES INTO OUR AREA AND SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MORE OF LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE IF PRECIPITATION CAN OCCUR. THIS SEEMS MOST FAVORED
IN THE MID-LATE EVE OVER NORTHERN IL AND POSSIBLY REACHING INTO FAR
NORTHWEST INDIANA. CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD AS VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS UPSTREAM AND THE SLOWING BOUNDARY TRAPS THE MOISTURE
BENEATH A STRENGTHENING INVERSION.
TUESDAY...
SURFACE RIDGING WILL POKE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THIS
TIME...BUT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. CONCEPTUALLY IN A STRONG POST-FRONTAL AIR
MASS WITH A STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE...THINK STRATUS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON IF NOT THE ENTIRE DAY ESPECIALLY
FOR LAKE ADJACENT AREAS. HAVE EXTENDED THE DURATION OF FORECAST
CLOUD COVER CONSIDERABLY AND HAVE CORRELATED TEMPERATURES
DOWNWARD...WITH THE MERCURY ONLY RISING A HANDFUL OF DEGREES IN
NEAR-LAKE AREAS INCLUDING CHICAGO. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...MID 60S
MAY BE REALIZED. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP
TO OPEN SOME HOLES IN THE CLOUDS.
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...
NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND THIS WILL EVOLVE OVER OUR
REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. PHASING OF THE CURRENT WESTERN U.S. UPPER
LOW AND A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE OF WESTERN CANADA IS LIKELY ONE
CULPRIT TO FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL MODEL DIFFERENCES OVER OUR REGION.
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS OUTPUT FOR THIS TIME WITH
CONFIDENCE BEING ESPECIALLY LOW SATURDAY-MONDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CYCLOGENESIS. THIS LOOKS
TO YIELD HIGHS IN THE 70S THOUGH WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY DEPENDENT ON
RAIN COVERAGE. THE RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
INCREASES WITHIN BETTER SUPPORT AND FOCUS FOR ASCENT. WHILE
SPECIFICS ON EXACT PRECIP EVOLUTION REMAIN UNCERTAIN ALONG WITH
WHICH PERIOD WITHIN 24-36H WINDOW WILL HAVE THE MOST WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE...CONTINUE THE BROAD LIKELY POPS MENTION. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE SOME THUNDER WITH SUCH A DEEPENING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE NIGHT AND A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
COLD FRONT. WHILE THERE IS AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IN THE OVERALL REGION...IT WOULD SEEM TO BE BETTER OVER
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO OUR SOUTH WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/DEEPER INSTABILITY POTENTIALLY INHIBITED TO REACH THIS FAR
NORTH FROM CONVECTION OVER THE AREA.
MODELS SHOW WIDESPREAD DIFFERENCES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM IN AN
UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW. THE GFS IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED WITH THE COLD
AIR INCOMING ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND LEANING THAT ROUTE STILL
PROVIDES LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE
SOME DEPENDENCY ON CLOUD COVER. FRIDAY LOOKS WINDY THOUGH MAINLY DRY
WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. WEEKEND CHANCES OF
RAIN ARE TOUGH TO SAY AND DEPENDENT ON WHEN A CLEARER PICTURE IS
PAINTED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCES.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* CIGS AROUND 1000 FT CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH
OCCASIONAL LOWERING TO 800-900 FT...ESPECIALLY AT ORD.
* MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH LIFTING
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
* NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR 10 KT
THIS AFTERNOON.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
LOW MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO BE SPREAD ACROSS THE THE TERMINALS AND
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. SOME PERIODIC LOWERING TO IFR WILL
LIKELY OCCUR BUT CIGS UPSTREAM HAVE IMPROVED SLIGHTLY IN SPOTS
LIKELY BECAUSE OF AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR. EXPECT THAT THE LOWEST
CIGS MAY BE OCCURRING NOW THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN MAY
START TO LIFT TOWARDS DAYBREAK...WITH STEADIER LIFTING THROUGH THE
MORNING. AM THINKING THAT RFD/DPA MAY SCATTER DURING THE AFTERNOON
AT SOME POINT WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKE KEEPING CLOUD COVER BROKEN AT
ORD/MDW/GYY THOUGH SOME SCATTERING COULD OCCUR. LOW LEVEL FLOW AT
CLOUD LEVEL TURNS SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING WHICH MAY PROMOTE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS PUSH IT FURTHER INLAND.
THEREFORE A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE AT DPA/RFD THIS
EVENING. WILL KEEP COVERAGE SCATTERED FOR NOW. NORTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY EASING THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND
GENERALLY BE NEAR 10 KT FOR THE MORNING/AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING
EAST THIS EVENING.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS HOVERING AROUND 1000 FT OVERNIGHT.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN OCCASIONAL LOWERING BELOW 1000
FT...ESPECIALLY AT ORD.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN BASES LIFTING DURING THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERING IS
POSSIBLE.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
THURSDAY...TSRA LIKELY...MVFR POSSIBLE. SOUTH WINDS TURNING
SOUTHWEST LATE.
FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA...MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY WEST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
305 PM CDT
A SHARP COLD FRONT IS MARCHING DOWN THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
WIND SHIFT TO NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT HAS
ALREADY PASSED THROUGH MILWAUKEE AS OF 300 PM CDT. OBSERVATIONS BEHIND
THE FRONT HAVE HELD AT 30 KT OR LESS...SO FEEL CONFIDENT THAT
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SUB- GALE THROUGH THIS COLD FRONT
PASSAGE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH. THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD THROUGH TUESDAY AS WE
REMAIN UNDER NORTH FLOW THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES
ON SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL WEAKEN AND SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST WHILE THE RIDGE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL SHIFT OVER THE
LAKE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY.
AS THIS OCCURS ADDITIONAL LOWS IN THE PLAINS WILL LEAD TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
POINT THE STRONGER LOW HEADS NORTH THROUGH MANITOBA WHILE ANOTHER
LOW MOVES OVER THE LAKE ON THURSDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE STILL REMAINS
MIXED AS TO WHETHER THIS LOW WILL BE IN A DEEPENING PHASE AS IT
TRANSITS THE LAKE OR IF IT WILL INTENSIFY MORE SO NORTH AND EAST OF
LAKE MICHIGAN.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. IF THE LOW IS
STRONGER...THERE COULD BE GALES IN THE BETTER MIXED ATMOSPHERE
BEHIND THE LOW FRIDAY. KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1114 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
The cold front has slipped south of Joliet over the past hour and
continues to make steady progress towards our area this evening.
Not much in the way of weather other than a wind shift and an
increase in clouds. Based on the present movement, it appears the
boundary will shift south thru Peoria and Bloomington between
Midnight and 2 am. Radar mosaic showing a decreasing area of
showers north of the boundary, so not expecting any measureable
precip with the front, other than the possibility for a brief
period of drizzle as the low clouds settle south into the forecast
area after midnight. Other than some adjustments to the evening
temperature trends, no other changes were needed to the grids that
would require an evening update.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
Weak high pressure will continue fair weather into this evening as
few to scattered cumulus clouds with 5-7k ft bases away from the IN
dissipate around sunset. Patchy shallow ground fog will develop
again near rivers and streams in southeast IL during overnight.
A cold front over southeast WI and central IA will push south into
central IL overnight, reaching I-70 by sunrise Tue, and weaken over
southeast IL on Tuesday. Stratus clouds behind/north of the front
will move south into central IL during overnight and especially
affect areas from I-74 north while southeast IL likely stays clear
most of tonight. Light winds into this evening will become northeast
at 5 to 10 mph during overnight over central IL. Lows tonight will
mostly be in the mid 50s with lower 50s north of Peoria.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
A dry front, located just north of the state is forecast to slowly
drop into the area tonight through tomorrow. NAM-WRF model has been
consistent with forecasting an increase in low clouds across the
northern half of the state tonight and tomorrow. It looks like it
could get to I-74 by morning and could progress further south
tomorrow. How far south it gets will depend on how much of the
southern edge of the cloud deck gets eroded away by the strong sun
during the day tomorrow. So, current thinking is it sill get past
I-74 and could get to I-72 in the eastern part of the CWA. During
the day tomorrow, the sunshine should dissipate a lot of the clouds,
like what is occurring in parts of SD/MN/and IA today. Then mostly
clear and dry conditions are expected tomorrow night through Wed.
A weather system in the western US will the lift northeast into the
northern plains and will have a trailing cold front that will extend
down into the southern plains. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop along and ahead of this front Wed well west of
the CWA. However, these storms will advect eastward into the state
beginning Wed night. A second low pressure area will develop along
the front and will move northeast into the Midwest and bring the
cold front through the area Thur and Thur night. Additional
thunderstorms will develop along the front Thursday and move across
the area during the day and through Thur night. Conditions do not
look right for any of the storms to produce severe weather, but this
could change in the next couple of days. However, lightning and
brief heavy rainfall will be likely with any storms that move
through the area late Wed night and Thursday. Once the front and pcpn
pass, there could be some lingering showers behind the front, so
will be keeping some chance pops in the east for Friday.
Beyond Friday, conditions will improve as a drier and cooler air
mass pushes into the area for the weekend. There is one small, weak
wave that could bring some light showers to the northeastern parts
of the area, along and north of I-74, but its too far away to have
much confidence, so will just have slight chance pops for Sunday,
which will not be mentioned in the worded forecast.
Temps will remain above normal tomorrow, when the sunshine is able
to break through the clouds, and Wed as well. Then clouds and rain
for Thur will keep temps milder and around normal. Once the front
moves through at the end of the week, temps will become much cooler
and actually be below normal for the beginning of Oct.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
Cold front has just passed Pontiac and continues to make steady
progress south-southwest into our forecast area. Based on the
present movement, it appears it will push across PIA and BMI
between 05-06z with our southern TAF sites seeing FROPA in the
08z-10z time frame. Winds initially after frontal passage will
gust up to 20 kts from the northeast (020-050) but will begin
to diminish an hour or two after passage. Based on the latest
satellite trends, the MVFR and local IFR cigs will follow within
an hour of the wind shift with cigs in the 500-1000 foot range,
especially at KBMI with even the possibility for a little drizzle
and vsby restriction in fog for an hour or two as the lower clouds
settle in. The real challenge will be how quickly the lower cigs
are able to lift late tomorrow morning or early afternoon with
the low level moisture trapped under a developing subsidence
inversion. Latest guidance off the NAM-WRF and HRRR continues to
suggest we will see some breaks develop by late morning or early
afternoon so will continue with the previous trends in the TAFs
in scattering out the lower cigs by afternoon with some broken
VFR cigs into the late afternoon hours.
Ahead of the front, surface winds will be light and variable and
then switch into the northeast after frontal passage with speeds
in the 10 to 15 kts with a few gusts around 20 kts for a brief
time. Winds on Tuesday will be from the northeast at 8 to 15 kts.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
246 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH A NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING FROM EASTERN COLORADO AT 00Z
TUESDAY INTO NEBRASKA BY 12Z TUESDAY. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IN
THE KINSLEY, STAFFORD, PRATT OR EVEN MEDICINE LODGE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO END BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z BASED ON LATEST HRRR AND RAP.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE ONGOING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND
ADJUST TIMING AS NEEDED. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF FAR
WESTERN KANSAS GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM 00Z TUESDAY
TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. FURTHER EAST/SOUTHEAST NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM NORTHERN
UTAH INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY MID DAY WHICH STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. AS THIS NEXT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY ALONG AND EAST
OF A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY HAYS TO
MEADE. EAST OF THIS AXIS LATE TODAY THE SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO
1500 J/KG, AND 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS AT 21Z
TUESDAY AND 00Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS IF STORMS DO DEVELOP LATE
TODAY A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAIN
HAZARD AT THIS TIME WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 3 AM. A COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50 TO 55
DEGREE RANGE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY
PATCH FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED ABOVE THE
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WEDNESDAY, THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN THROUGH THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTERNOON.
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FIRST ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BE
OBSERVED. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE IN
THIS AREA WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECASTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FORM THE MID 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO MID 80S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK
BORDER. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PLACE WESTERN KANSAS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY INCREASING TO THE
LOWER 80S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS WILL START OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY MORNING INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 50S SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BASED ON BUFR
SOUNDINGS, HRRR, AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE CLOUD BASED MAY
BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS PASS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE BRIEFLY, MAINLY IN THE GCK AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z
TUESDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR, NAM, AND RAP THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MORE LIKELY IN THE GCK AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z, DDC BETWEEN
08Z AND 10Z, AND HYS FROM 09Z TO 12Z. THE PREVAILING WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND OUTSIDE THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE THESE
STORMS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY
IN THE DAY. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS PASSES THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE STRONGER WINDS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE HAYS AND
DODGE CITY AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 84 57 81 54 / 20 20 20 30
GCK 82 54 79 51 / 10 10 20 50
EHA 80 51 79 50 / 10 10 10 30
LBL 84 53 81 53 / 10 10 10 20
HYS 81 58 78 53 / 30 20 30 50
P28 85 62 86 60 / 20 40 20 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
125 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH A NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING FROM EASTERN COLORADO AT 00Z
TUESDAY INTO NEBRASKA BY 12Z TUESDAY. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IN
THE KINSLEY, STAFFORD, PRATT OR EVEN MEDICINE LODGE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO END BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z BASED ON LATEST HRRR AND RAP.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE ONGOING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND
ADJUST TIMING AS NEEDED. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF FAR
WESTERN KANSAS GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM 00Z TUESDAY
TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. FURTHER EAST/SOUTHEAST NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM NORTHERN
UTAH INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY MID DAY WHICH STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. AS THIS NEXT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY ALONG AND EAST
OF A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY HAYS TO
MEADE. EAST OF THIS AXIS LATE TODAY THE SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO
1500 J/KG, AND 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS AT 21Z
TUESDAY AND 00Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS IF STORMS DO DEVELOP LATE
TODAY A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAIN
HAZARD AT THIS TIME WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 3 AM. A COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50 TO 55
DEGREE RANGE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY
PATCH FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
STARTING WITH TUESDAY NIGHT, THE FIRST TROUGH WILL BE GOING EAST
THROUGH THE AREA, TAKING THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN COUNTIES,
EXITING THERE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BE
ENTERING FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, GIVING A
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FIRST IN OUR EASTERN ZONES NEAR HAYS,
SAINT JOHN AND MEDICINE LODGE, WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY MIGRATING THROUGH TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, RAINSHOWER CHANCES WILL
INCREASE IN THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST INTO THE 50 PERCENT CHANCE
RANGE, AND INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES SUCH AS MORTON, MEADE AND COLDWATER COUNTIES. NOT
TOO MUCH RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, AS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED. THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL
SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY, BRINGING PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE RECENT FALL PERIOD TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 60S IN THE SCOTT CITY TO WAKEENEY AREAS,
AND WILL BE AROUND 70F DEGREES ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
BEYOND THURSDAY, THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH
MONDAY. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, EITHER. FRIDAY
WILL HAVE COOL MODERATING TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S, BUT THEN SHOULD INCREASE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S RANGE
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS, AS WELL AS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. IN BETWEEN, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS
WILL BE COOL, WITH MINS IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BASED ON BUFR
SOUNDINGS, HRRR, AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE CLOUD BASED MAY
BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATAGORY AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS PASS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE BRIEFLY, MAINLY IN THE GCK AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z
TUESDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR, NAM, AND RAP THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MORE LIKELY IN THE GCK AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z, DDC BETWEEN
08Z AND 10Z, AND HYS FROM 09Z TO 12Z. THE PREVAILING WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND OUTSIDE THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE THESE
STORMS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY
IN THE DAY. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS PASSES THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE STRONGER WINDS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE HAYS AND
DODGE CITY AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 84 57 81 52 / 20 20 20 30
GCK 82 54 78 49 / 10 10 30 40
EHA 80 51 78 49 / 10 10 10 30
LBL 84 53 80 51 / 10 10 10 30
HYS 81 58 77 52 / 40 20 40 50
P28 85 62 86 59 / 30 40 30 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1213 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
AT 00Z TUESDAY A 500MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM WESTERN COLORADO
INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPEARS TO BE
LOCATED UPSTREAM IN NORTHERN UTAH. A +80 KNOT 250MB JET STREAK
EXTENDED FROM WESTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS A SURFACE TO 850MB TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
ARE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHEASTERN COLORADO TO NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. SURFACE DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MAINLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. EVENING CONVECTION WAS FOCUSED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z TUESDAY WERE +19C AT NORTH PLATTE, +20C
AT DODGE CITY AND AMARILLO. 700MB TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM +6C AT
NORTH PLATTE TO +9C AT AMARILLO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
STRENGTHENING AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
COLORADO TONIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS A STRONG H5 VORT MAX LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES OF SOUTHERN COLORADO, A SURFACE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO ENHANCING THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS, AND SUBSEQUENTLY DRAWING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
MEANWHILE, THE STRONG JET CORE EXITING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS,
WILL CLIMB NORTHEAST ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING
MAKING DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT MUCH MORE FAVORABLE WITH WINDS IN
EXCEEDING 80KT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR, STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
AND INCREASING INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE, WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. DEVELOPING STORMS WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO
PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR VERY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DUE TO FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES DEVELOPING THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS ALOFT
STRENGTHEN, NOT TO MENTION MUCAPE VALUES CLIMBING NEAR 1000 J/KG
OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO LESSEN IN INTENSITY AS
THEY MOVE INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIR.
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE MID TO UPPER
50S(F) OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS MORNING AS
A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
OVERNIGHT, DRAWING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S(F) ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER
AND MID 60S(F) ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MARGINAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY ALLOWING H85 TEMPERATURES TO REACH
UP INTO THE LOWER 20S(C) ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S(F) IN WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S(F) IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
STARTING WITH TUESDAY NIGHT, THE FIRST TROUGH WILL BE GOING EAST
THROUGH THE AREA, TAKING THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN COUNTIES,
EXITING THERE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BE
ENTERING FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, GIVING A
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FIRST IN OUR EASTERN ZONES NEAR HAYS,
SAINT JOHN AND MEDICINE LODGE, WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY MIGRATING THROUGH TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, RAINSHOWER CHANCES WILL
INCREASE IN THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST INTO THE 50 PERCENT CHANCE
RANGE, AND INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES SUCH AS MORTON, MEADE AND COLDWATER COUNTIES. NOT
TOO MUCH RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, AS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED. THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL
SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY, BRINGING PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE RECENT FALL PERIOD TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 60S IN THE SCOTT CITY TO WAKEENEY AREAS,
AND WILL BE AROUND 70F DEGREES ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
BEYOND THURSDAY, THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH
MONDAY. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, EITHER. FRIDAY
WILL HAVE COOL MODERATING TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S, BUT THEN SHOULD INCREASE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S RANGE
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS, AS WELL AS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. IN BETWEEN, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS
WILL BE COOL, WITH MINS IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BASED ON BUFR
SOUNDINGS, HRRR, AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE CLOUD BASED MAY
BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATAGORY AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS PASS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE BRIEFLY, MAINLY IN THE GCK AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z
TUESDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR, NAM, AND RAP THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MORE LIKELY IN THE GCK AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z, DDC BETWEEN
08Z AND 10Z, AND HYS FROM 09Z TO 12Z. THE PREVAILING WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND OUTSIDE THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE THESE
STORMS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY
IN THE DAY. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS PASSES THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE STRONGER WINDS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE HAYS AND
DODGE CITY AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 57 81 52 71 / 20 20 30 20
GCK 54 78 49 70 / 10 30 40 20
EHA 51 78 49 70 / 10 10 30 20
LBL 53 80 51 71 / 10 10 30 20
HYS 58 77 52 68 / 20 40 50 30
P28 62 86 59 74 / 40 30 30 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
248 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 247 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
The main weather system for the short term forecast period still
remains focused on Thursday and Thursday night. Medium range, and
now, short range guidance suggests that the best lift and forcing
shall remain limited to the aforementioned time period. This has
been consistent with the model runs since late last week.
With respect to severe potential, using the operational GFS as a
convective template, the time period between 23z-04z (6 pm - 11 pm
CDT) Friday, inclusive, is supportive of at least isolated to
scattered severe storms. The 0-1km and 0-6km Bulk shear remains
between 20-25 knots and 40 to 45 knots, respectively between 00z
and 06z Friday...with Mixed Layer and Most Unstable layer CAPE
edging into a northeast oriented gradient between 1200-1400 j/kg.
The Day 3 Slight Risk area defined by SPC fits very well with the
area of interest over Southeast Missouri Thursday evening.
At this point in time, suspect that there may be some wind damage
potential (entraining very dry air aloft into marginally favorable
layer lapse rates) with a squall line moving into and off of the
Southeast Missouri foothills between 00-03z Friday. Beyond that
time, low level convergence, originally associated with a surface
wave moving through eastern Missouri at the time, will take most
of the enhanced low level convergence and shear rapidly northeast
out of the area by 06z Friday. Other than this limited severe
weather potential, a broad swatch of 1-1.25 inches of rain will be
the primary activity with the passage of the weather system
Thursday and Thursday night.
In the very near term, fog potential will still be an issue for this
morning. Issued an SPS for locally dense fog once again. All though
the high resolution 3km HRRR continues to overreach on coverage, the
13km RAP and 4km NAM-WRF (NMM version) appear to suggest that
Southeast Illinois could see more widespread fog through daybreak.
The influx of moisture should increase after today will limit the
25-30 degree diurnal swing of temperatures experience during the
last few days. Went slightly above the warmest guidance today for
maximum temperatures. More normal diurnal range of temperatures
can then be expected prior to the development of convection late
night Wednesday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
The pattern will generally be an upper level trof over the east U.S.
with strong flow coming into the CONUS across the Pacific NW, and
some riding over the SW U.S. extending into Mexico. Mainly dry
weather is expected. A cold front will depart the area early Friday
with decreasing chances of showers in the morning. High pressure
will build in, and lead to a cooler Saturday. Not sure how cool
though, as the GFS shows 925-850mb warm advection developing as
early as 12-18z Sat. Temperatures will moderate back to seasonal
norms Sunday-Monday. Will keep an eye on a frontal system the models
advertise Sunday night into early Monday. 00z GFS develops some
convection, however prior runs did not. ECMWF stays generally dry.
Will keep it dry for now and monitor trends.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 555 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
Patchy vsby restrictions in fog is possible tonight, like previous
nights. Will monitor evening trends, however, as drier air did
work down the column late this afternoon. Otherwise VFR continues
with few-sct diurnal cu developing in 4-5K foot range again tmrw.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...CN
Aviation...DH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
535 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING
N THRU WRN NEBRASKA. IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM IS A SHARP RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM MO THRU MN INTO MANITOBA AND NRN ONTARIO. SHORTWAVE
THAT PRODUCED SHOWERS HERE YESTERDAY IS NOW OVER LWR MI AND SRN
ONTARIO. IN THE WAKE OF THAT SHORTWAVE...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS BEEN TRAPPED UNDER A STRENGTHENING INVERSION...RESULTING IN OVC
SKIES OVERNIGHT ACROSS UPPER MI WITH ONE EXCEPTION. DRIER AIR AND
CLEAR SKIES HAVE ADVANCED S ACROSS CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE TIP OF
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED OVER NRN
ONTARIO.
GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING INVERSION AND LOWER SUN ANGLE AT THIS TIME
OF YEAR...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A WHILE TO CLEAR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ALTHOUGH CLEARING HAS ADVANCED S TO THE TIP
OF THE KEWEENAW OVERNIGHT...VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION RESULTING FROM THE SFC HIGH SHIFTING EASTWARD WILL SLOW
AND STALL THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCE OF DRIER AIR. SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALREADY SHOWS THIS OCCURRING. GIVEN WHERE THE CLEARING LINE IS
UPSTREAM TO THE E OF LAKE SUPERIOR...HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AREA WILL NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING TODAY. FOR NOW...FCST
WILL SHOW CLOUDS DOMINATING THIS MORNING AND THEN GRADUAL CLEARING
IN THE AFTN. IT MAY END UP BEING THAT DOWNSLOPE AREAS WILL BE THE
FIRST TO SEE INCREASING SUNSHINE THIS AFTN WITH CLEARING THEN SLOWLY
EXPANDING FROM THERE. AS FOR TEMPS...LOWERED TEMPS A BIT FROM
INHERITED FCST TO REFLECT THE MORE PESSIMISTIC CLEARING TREND. TEMPS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50F OVER THE NCNTRL WHERE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO
LINGER LONGEST. OTHERWISE...50S WIL BE THE RULE TODAY.
IF SKIES DO CLEAR THIS AFTN/EVENING...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AGAIN TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS SPREADING E FROM THE POTENT SHORTWAVE
LIFTING THRU THE DAKOTAS BUT MORE SO DUE TO A RETURN OF LOWER CLOUDS
LIFTING BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SE. ALTHOUGH POTENT SHORTWAVE
WILL BE TAKING A TRACK WELL W OF HERE...RIBBON OF FAIRLY STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY SPREAD SCT
SHRA AS FAR E AS FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
ATTENTION IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT 12Z WED INTO THE CWA AT 00Z SAT
WHILE DEEPENING AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED...AS IS GENERALLY
AGREED ON BY NWP. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN LOOKS TO CLOSE OFF INTO A
LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRI NIGHT...BUT MODEL
DISAGREEMENT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AT THIS POINT WITH THE STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT DOES INCREASE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON WITH MODELS SHOWING A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS.
ONE THING THAT CAN BE SAID WITH CERTAINTY IS THAT THE PATTERN WILL
BE MORE ACTIVE THAN LAST WEEK.
SHOWERS /POSSIBLY WITH SOME THUNDER/ IS STILL EXPECTED TO VERY
GRADUALLY MOVE W TO E ACROSS THE CWA WED THROUGH THU DUE TO
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT. MAIN ISSUE
TO POINT OUT FROM A CONFIDENCE STANDPOINT IS THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL PROBABLY EJECT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE W /AS SHOWN BY
NWP/...BUT THE MODELS DO NO AGREE ON THE STRENGTH/TIMING/TRACK OF
ANY ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE
PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP AND/OR GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE...BUT
ACCURATELY TIMING THOSE OUT IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 60S LOOK TO MAKE A RETURN ON WED AND THU DUE TO THE WAA AND
RESULTING WARM AIRMASS /850MB TEMPS OF 10-13C/.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE UPPER TROUGH TEARS INTO THE AREA THU
NIGHT AND FRI...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WITH IT. AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE 850MB TEMPS BELOW 0C BY THE END OF
THE DAY FRI. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND MAGNITUDE OF
RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS AS IT MOVES IN...PERIODS OF PRECIP DOES LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET THU NIGHT INTO FRI...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SFC LOW LEVEL FEATURES. SOME
MODELS /MAINLY THE GFS AND NAM/ SHOW A DEEPER SFC LOW TRANSITING THE
CWA THU NIGHT INTO FRI /AS THE GFS HAS SHOWN VARIOUS ITERATIONS OF
FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS/. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...GALES WOULD LIKELY
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WHILE THIS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO ADD
THIS SCENARIO TO THE FORECAST. PRECIP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT IS A BIT
MORE CERTAIN SINCE IT WILL BE LESS DUE TO A SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AND MORE
TO SUB ZERO 850MB TEMPS AND WNW-NW LOW LEVEL WINDS LEADING TO LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. IN FACT...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW
COLD THE AIRMASS IS...SNOW IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE PICTURE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS UNLIKELY /ESPECIALLY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS/. DID ADD SNOW CHANCES TO THE FORECAST
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN UPPER MI FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AND FOR
PORTIONS OF NWRN AND NERN UPPER MI SAT NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS BY SATURDAY
LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S....WITH LOW TEMPS SAT NIGHT
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
GOING COMPLETELY WITH MODEL CONSENSUS IDEA SUN AND MON GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS NEAR
IFR/MVFR THRESHOLD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. HOWEVER...SOME DRYING WILL PUSH
INTO UPPER MI...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CIGS CLIMBING TO AT OR
ABOVE 2K FT THIS MORNING. DAYTIME MIXING AND ADDITIONAL DRY ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH CLEARING FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX BY LATE
MORNING...AT IWD BY AFTN AND AT KSAW BY LATE AFTN WHERE MORE
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
WITH HIGH PRES JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
UNDER 20KT THIS MORNING. WINDS OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR MAY
INCREASE INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE FOR A TIME THIS AFTN/EVENING AS THE
HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE E. WINDS SHOULD OTHERWISE REMAIN UNDER 20KT
THROUGH AT LEAST THU MORNING...THOUGH THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT UPTICK
IN S TO SE WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WED AS PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BTWN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE W. THAT COLD FRONT WILL REACH LAKE SUPERIOR THU...AND THEN A
WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW ORGANIZES AND HOW QUICKLY IT
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES N THRU NRN ONTARIO...THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF NW GALES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AT SOME POINT
FRI AND/OR SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
...THE END OF THIS CURRENT STRETCH OF SUMMERLIKE WARMTH IS ON THE
HORIZON AND THE TRANSITION TO A TEMPORARY COOLDOWN WILL OCCUR WITH
MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS THRU THURSDAY...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
ALOFT: A POTENT VORT MAX WAS OVER THE PANHANDLE AT 09Z WITH A
NICE COMMA CLOUD IN SATELLITE. THIS VORT MAX WILL CONT DEPARTING
THE REGION TO THE NNE. THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY SLOT IN ITS WAKE
WILL WRAP INTO THE FCST AREA TODAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WAS
OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN W
TODAY...WITH THE SRN MOST VORT MAX MOVING INTO CO THIS EVENING AND
EJECTING NE ACROSS KS/NEB AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SURFACE: DEEPENING LOW PRES WAS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WILL HEAD
NNE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY-TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE A WEAK COOL
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL NEB/KS AND BECOME STATIONARY THRU
TONIGHT. AM NOT EVEN SURE THIS IS A TRUE FRONT. IT APPEARS TO BE
MORE OF A MODEST DRYLINE.
OVER THE PAST FEW HRS...THE HRRR HAS BEEN STELLAR WITH ITS
DEPICTION OF THE DECREASE IN SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY WITHIN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE COMMA CLOUD. FROM REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS IT
APPEARED THERE WAS TOO MUCH CAPPING ALOFT AND POOR MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES /LACK OF INSTABILITY/.
THRU SUNRISE: A FEW ISOLATED SHWRS WILL CONT TO POP UP HERE AND
THERE. WE ARE CURRENTLY MONITORING THE TSTM CLUSTER IN THE DDC
AREA. THE 06Z NAM/HRRR AND THE 00Z HI-RES NAM GUIDANCE ALL HAVE IT
AND TAKE IT NE INTO THE FCST AREA...MAINLY E OF HWY 281. SO WHILE
POPS WERE INITIALLY TRIMMED THRU MIDDAY BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS...THEY WERE RAMPED BACK UP BASED ON GOOD GUIDANCE HANDLING
OF THIS.
TODAY: SHWRS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER UNTIL NOON WITH A DRYING TREND
FROM W-E. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO TO REDEVELOP. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
ANOTHER DAY OF WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
HIGHS IS BELOW AVERAGE E OF HWY 281. IF MORNING CLOUDS/SHWRS ARE
MORE EXTENSIVE THAN EXPECTED...WE MAY BE TOO HIGH BY 3-5F DUE TO
DELAYED CLEARING.
WE WILL CLOSE THE BOOKS ON A COOLER THAN NORMAL SEP TODAY...BUT
THE LAST 4 DAYS OF AVERAGE TEMPS AT LEAST 10F ABOVE NORMAL PUT A
BIG DENT IN THE DOWNSIDE DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL. THAT RECORD COOL
STRETCH FROM THE 11TH-13TH WAS TOUGH TO RECOVER FROM FOR THE
MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMP.
DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY /E OF HWY 281/ IN
THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING`S SHWRS. COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF ALOFT...THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST
DESTABILIZATION WITH A SWATH OF MLCAPE UP TO 1250 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CINH...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE A COUPLE TSTMS. MOST OF THE
TSTMS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER ERN NEB/KS.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE 35-40 KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS. GIVEN A DECENT COMPONENT OF DEEP LAYER WINDS NORMAL TO
THE FORCING...AND THE EXPECTED LACK OF COMPETITION...STORMS COULD
BE SUPERCELLULAR IN CHARACTER. THE SKINNY CAPE PROFILE SUGGESTS
MODEST SEVERE HAIL BUT INTERNAL UPDRAFT ENHANCEMENT IN ANY
SUPERCELLS WILL TRUMP THIS. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF 1"
HAIL IN THE HWO. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND IS THERE BUT NOT AS
GREAT.
TONIGHT: THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROF AND THE ASSOCIATED EXIT
REGION OF AN 80 KT UPPER-LVL JET STREAK WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER ERN KS/NEB. HOWEVER...
THE WRN FRINGE OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD STILL AFFECT A FEW LOCATIONS
E OF HWY 281. MUCAPE NO GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. SHEAR IN THE
CLOUD- BEARING LAYER WILL BE NEAR 30 KTS. SO HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF NICKELS CANT BE RULED OUT.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHERWISE DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS...THEN CONDITIONS DRY OUT FOR THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY LINGER BRIEFLY IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS AND
NOSE OF THE LLVL JET. THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH
MILD TEMPERATURES...RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS. THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING CHANGES DURING THE DAY AS AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DEEPENS IN SOUTHEAST CO/OK PANHANDLE AREA WITH
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
NEB...AND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS. MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD AND POOLS ALONG THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS KS/SOUTHERN NEB WITH DPS AVERAGING IN THE
MID 60S. INSTABILITY INCREASES TO AROUND 2500 J/KG IN AFTN IN OUR
SE ZONES PER SREF AND NAM SUGGESTS THIS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AVERAGES 40KTS AND CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION/SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE AFTN/EVE WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARIES AND INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS AS JET CROSSES
KS AND THE TROUGH EDGES ONTO THE PLAINS. THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ARE
LOOKING WET WITH WAA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND GOOD
MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW LONG PCPN WILL LAST
ON THURSDAY WITH THE NAM SLOWER WITH TROUGH PROGRESSION AND CLOSES
OFF THE LOW AT H7...WHEREAS OTHER MODELS MAINTAIN MORE OF AN OPEN
WAVE/MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION DURING THE DAY. HARD TO SAY AT THIS
POINT...BUT THE MORNING HOURS LOOKING MORE WET THAN THE AFTERNOON
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL NOT TRY TO PINPOINT TIMING JUST YET
IN CASE SYSTEM SLOWS.
THE FORECAST DRIES OUT THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS WITH
COOLER TEMPS MOVING IN WITH CAA IN NW FLOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS FM THE UPPER MIDWEST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. OVER THE
WEEKEND HEIGHTS RISE AND TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE AS THE EASTERN
TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE NE CONUS/ONTARIO AND MEANDERS AROUND THE
HUDSON BAY. OVERALL TEMPS ARE LOOKING FAIRLY SEASONAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
THRU 11Z: VFR MID-LEVEL CIGS AROUND 8K FT...BUT THERE WILL BE A
2 HR WINDOW FOR MVFR VSBYS IN SCT +SHRA WITH POTENTIAL FOR G35
KTS. THE TIMING TOOL BASED ON RADAR SUGGESTS 630Z-0800Z AT EAR AND
07Z-09Z GRI. AFTER THE LINE OF SHWRS CLEARS THE TERMINALS...SKIES
WILL CLEAR WITH LLWS DEVELOPING. OUTSIDE OF THESE SHWRS...WINDS
WILL BE SE AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
TUE: VFR. LLWS ENDS 14Z-15Z. A FEW CU COULD DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. SE WINDS WILL BECOME S OR POSSIBLY SSW 10-15 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
THIS EVENING: VFR. WINDS WILL BECOME SSE 5-10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE:HIGH
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
307 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DEALING WITH TIMING OF PRECIP EVENTS
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION.
INITIAL SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING WAS LIFTING INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 07Z. SUPPORTED BY
60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. CONVECTION HAD
WEAKENED AND DIMINISHED SINCE 05Z AS BAND OF STORMS MOVED AWAY
FROM SUPPORT OF 60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
06Z RAP TRANSLATES THIS BAND OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE EAST DURING
THE MORNING AND INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME WITH SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING INITIAL BAND OF
STORMS STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BY 18Z IN ADVANCE OF DRY LINE. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER
CLOUDS BREAK ENOUGH FOR SUN TO ADD TO DESTABILIZATION NEAR THE DRY
LINE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE.
AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. PRIMARY FORCING FINALLY SHIFTS EAST WITH THE UPPER WAVE
AND SURFACE FRONT LATE THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT
TERM WEATHER SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER
STRONG WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PULLS DOWN
COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. WARMER TEMPS RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AS MEAN TROUGH SETS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION
WITH RIDGING IN THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
A WEAK BACK-DOOR FRONT THAT WAS PUSHING WEST TOWARD MISSOURI RIVER
SHOULD WASH OUT TONIGHT AS SRLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AHEAD OF A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...A FEW LOW CLOUDS WITH CIGS BELOW
FL010 WERE WORKING SW WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND THESE LOW
CIGS COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT KOMA AND KOFK. OTHERWISE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE STILL LIKELY TO ROLL INTO ERN NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MID TUESDAY MORNING AS TROUGH CONTINUES LIFTING NE. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS SOME CHANCE THESE STORMS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY...IT
APPEARED THERE WILL BE ONE WAVE WORKING TOWARD THE MO RIVER
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH REDEVELOPMENT THEN LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS TWO
AREAS. ONE AREA POSSIBLY NEAR KOFK BY LATE AFTN WITH THE OTHER
NEAR OR SW OF KLNK A LITTLE LATER WITH THAT SECOND AREA POSSIBLY
IMPACTING KLNK AND KOMA LONGER THAN THE FIRST AREA WOULD AT KOFK.
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN MORNING
CONVECTION ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER WELL THROUGH THE 70S. FOR NOW
JUST CONTINUED THE MENTION OF PROB30 WITH GUSTS TO 35 WITH LATTER
DAY CONVECTION CHANCES AT ALL SITES.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...CHERMOK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1253 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
SEVERAL MINOR UPDATES HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED SINCE 10 PM...PRIMARILY
FOR POPS/SKY. THE NARROW RAIN BAND IS BEGINNING TO FALL APART AS
INDICATED BY THE HRRR. SO POPS WERE BACKED DOWN A BIT AND WE ARE
PROBABLY STILL OVERDONE IF THE HRRR IS RIGHT. WE HAVE SEEN G36 KTS
AT MKC AND 39 KTS AT LBF. AN SPS WAS POSTED FOR FURNAS COUNTY AT
11 PM. WE WILL CONT TO MONITOR WIND GUSTS AND FURTHER SPECIAL WX
STMTS /SPS/ MAY BE NEEDED THRU THE NIGHT. BUT THIS WILL BE
CONTINGENT ON THE SHWRS HOLDING TOGETHER.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE SRN LOBE OF ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH
CO/NM...WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO
KEEP THINGS QUIET ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. AT THE SFC...HAVE HAD AT
TIMES GUSTY SRLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH LOW PRESSURE SET UP
OVER ERN CO...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST ACROSS NRN
NEB. STARTED THE DAY OUT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...BUT CU
DEVELOPED BY MIDDAY BRINGING AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. 3PM TEMPS SHOWING LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA.
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THAT PIECE OF ENERGY
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CO/NM...AND THE ACCOMPANYING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. 12Z MODELS AND LATEST RAP/HRRR DATA
CONTINUING THE TREND OF A LATER ARRIVAL OF PRECIP CHANCES...AND
KEPT THE 00-03Z HOURS DRY UNTIL THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES.
OVERALL...DIDNT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST...WITH POPS ESP RAMPING UP IN COVERAGE AFTER 06Z IN THE
WEST...THEN SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NEAR/AFTER SUNRISE...THE BETTER FOCUS FOR PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF
TO THE EAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS FAR SERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY CURRENTLY SITS TO THE W AND N OF THE
CWA...AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODELS VARY ON WHAT IS
AVAILABLE ACROSS THE CWA. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...SHOWING SOME MUCAPE VALUES NEAR/ABOVE 1000
J/KG...OTHERS ARE CLOSER TO 500 J/KG. SHOULD THOSE HIGHER VALUES
MATERIALIZE THERE WILL BE MORE CONCERN FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...THINKING THAT WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR HIGHS TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY...THE AREA SETTLES INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WHICH
SHOULD BRING PRIMARILY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
STARTING TUESDAY EVENING...WE WILL KNOW BY SUNSET IF SOME LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN FIRE ALONG SOUTHERN END OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SLOWING SLIDING EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY
IMPACT THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT STORM CHANCES IN THAT VICINITY
THROUGH EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WEDNESDAY PROBABLY STARTS OFF PRETTY QUIET BUT THE EMERGENCE OF A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...AND THE PRESENCE OF A LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MAKE
FOR INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. OF NOTE...
IS THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY
OR VERY EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY FIRING ALONG WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS SUPPOSED TO BE NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER BY
LATE AFTERNOON. CAPPING IS WEAK...AND INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONG AND
SUPPORTED OF SOME STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIGHT BE A LITTLE BIT EARLY TO REALLY
NAIL DOWN THIS POTENTIAL EXACTLY BUT ENOUGH IN THE MODELS TO
CONSIDER THE SEVERE RISK AND ITS POTENTIAL. BACKING FLOW NEAR
BOUNDARY COULD MAKE THINGS INTERESTING FOR A COUPLE HOURS IF THE
STORMS CAN FIRE. THAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
BOUNDARY AND FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT MOST. WHAT STORMS DO
DEVELOP...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AND SHIFT EAST
WITH LOW LEVEL JET.
THURSDAY IS A BIT OF QUANDARY AT THIS POINT. LATEST MODEL RUNS
PRETTY MUCH ALL CAME IN BACK FURTHER NORTH NEBRASKA. EVEN THE
FURTHEST NORTH GFS SHIFTED THINGS TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS IS
BASICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING
THE 1/2 HALF OF THE DAY. HAVE CONTINUED 20 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES...BUT THAT COULD GO UP QUITE A BIT IF THINGS PAN OUT
DIFFERENTLY. OF COURSE...IT COULD SHIFT BACK FURTHER SOUTH AND
BE MORE OF AN INFLUENCE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE
DAY. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE 60S. DON/T
BE SURPRISED IF PRECIPITATION CHANCES CHANGE FROM RUN-TO-RUN FOR
THURSDAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY IS CURRENTLY
PROJECTED AS DRY. THE UPPER FLOW STAYS NORTHWEST ALTHOUGH THERE
SIGNS IT MAY SHIFT WESTERLY WITH TIME. COUPLE OF HINTS AT MAYBE
A NORTHWEST FLOW SHOWER/SPRINKLE/TRACE EVENT...BUT WILL LEAVE
DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES/CONDITIONS LOOK VERY SEASONAL FOR
THE FIRST PART OF OCTOBER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
THRU 11Z: VFR MID-LEVEL CIGS AROUND 8K FT...BUT THERE WILL BE A
2 HR WINDOW FOR MVFR VSBYS IN SCT +SHRA WITH POTENTIAL FOR G35
KTS. THE TIMING TOOL BASED ON RADAR SUGGESTS 630Z-0800Z AT EAR AND
07Z-09Z GRI. AFTER THE LINE OF SHWRS CLEARS THE TERMINALS...SKIES
WILL CLEAR WITH LLWS DEVELOPING. OUTSIDE OF THESE SHWRS...WINDS
WILL BE SE AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
TUE: VFR. LLWS ENDS 14Z-15Z. A FEW CU COULD DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. SE WINDS WILL BECOME S OR POSSIBLY SSW 10-15 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
THIS EVENING: VFR. WINDS WILL BECOME SSE 5-10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE:HIGH
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1208 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
SEVERAL MINOR UPDATES HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED SINCE 10 PM...PRIMARILY
FOR POPS/SKY. THE NARROW RAIN BAND IS BEGINNING TO FALL APART AS
INDICATED BY THE HRRR. SO POPS WERE BACKED DOWN A BIT AND WE ARE
PROBABLY STILL OVERDONE IF THE HRRR IS RIGHT. WE HAVE SEEN G36 KTS
AT MKC AND 39 KTS AT LBF. AN SPS WAS POSTED FOR FURNAS COUNTY AT
11 PM. WE WILL CONT TO MONITOR WIND GUSTS AND FURTHER SPECIAL WX
STMTS /SPS/ MAY BE NEEDED THRU THE NIGHT. BUT THIS WILL BE
CONTINGENT ON THE SHWRS HOLDING TOGETHER.
NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE SRN LOBE OF ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH
CO/NM...WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO
KEEP THINGS QUIET ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. AT THE SFC...HAVE HAD AT
TIMES GUSTY SRLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH LOW PRESSURE SET UP
OVER ERN CO...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST ACROSS NRN
NEB. STARTED THE DAY OUT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...BUT CU
DEVELOPED BY MIDDAY BRINGING AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. 3PM TEMPS SHOWING LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA.
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THAT PIECE OF ENERGY
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CO/NM...AND THE ACCOMPANYING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. 12Z MODELS AND LATEST RAP/HRRR DATA
CONTINUING THE TREND OF A LATER ARRIVAL OF PRECIP CHANCES...AND
KEPT THE 00-03Z HOURS DRY UNTIL THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES.
OVERALL...DIDNT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST...WITH POPS ESP RAMPING UP IN COVERAGE AFTER 06Z IN THE
WEST...THEN SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NEAR/AFTER SUNRISE...THE BETTER FOCUS FOR PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF
TO THE EAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS FAR SERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY CURRENTLY SITS TO THE W AND N OF THE
CWA...AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODELS VARY ON WHAT IS
AVAILABLE ACROSS THE CWA. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...SHOWING SOME MUCAPE VALUES NEAR/ABOVE 1000
J/KG...OTHERS ARE CLOSER TO 500 J/KG. SHOULD THOSE HIGHER VALUES
MATERIALIZE THERE WILL BE MORE CONCERN FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...THINKING THAT WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR HIGHS TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY...THE AREA SETTLES INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WHICH
SHOULD BRING PRIMARILY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
STARTING TUESDAY EVENING...WE WILL KNOW BY SUNSET IF SOME LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN FIRE ALONG SOUTHERN END OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SLOWING SLIDING EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY
IMPACT THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT STORM CHANCES IN THAT VICINITY
THROUGH EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WEDNESDAY PROBABLY STARTS OFF PRETTY QUIET BUT THE EMERGENCE OF A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...AND THE PRESENCE OF A LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MAKE
FOR INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. OF NOTE...
IS THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY
OR VERY EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY FIRING ALONG WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS SUPPOSED TO BE NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER BY
LATE AFTERNOON. CAPPING IS WEAK...AND INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONG AND
SUPPORTED OF SOME STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIGHT BE A LITTLE BIT EARLY TO REALLY
NAIL DOWN THIS POTENTIAL EXACTLY BUT ENOUGH IN THE MODELS TO
CONSIDER THE SEVERE RISK AND ITS POTENTIAL. BACKING FLOW NEAR
BOUNDARY COULD MAKE THINGS INTERESTING FOR A COUPLE HOURS IF THE
STORMS CAN FIRE. THAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
BOUNDARY AND FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT MOST. WHAT STORMS DO
DEVELOP...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AND SHIFT EAST
WITH LOW LEVEL JET.
THURSDAY IS A BIT OF QUANDARY AT THIS POINT. LATEST MODEL RUNS
PRETTY MUCH ALL CAME IN BACK FURTHER NORTH NEBRASKA. EVEN THE
FURTHEST NORTH GFS SHIFTED THINGS TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS IS
BASICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING
THE 1/2 HALF OF THE DAY. HAVE CONTINUED 20 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES...BUT THAT COULD GO UP QUITE A BIT IF THINGS PAN OUT
DIFFERENTLY. OF COURSE...IT COULD SHIFT BACK FURTHER SOUTH AND
BE MORE OF AN INFLUENCE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE
DAY. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE 60S. DON/T
BE SURPRISED IF PRECIPITATION CHANCES CHANGE FROM RUN-TO-RUN FOR
THURSDAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY IS CURRENTLY
PROJECTED AS DRY. THE UPPER FLOW STAYS NORTHWEST ALTHOUGH THERE
SIGNS IT MAY SHIFT WESTERLY WITH TIME. COUPLE OF HINTS AT MAYBE
A NORTHWEST FLOW SHOWER/SPRINKLE/TRACE EVENT...BUT WILL LEAVE
DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES/CONDITIONS LOOK VERY SEASONAL FOR
THE FIRST PART OF OCTOBER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS THE AXIS OF A
LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE A CONCERN FOR A
FEW HOURS AS THE JET AXIS CONTINUES EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AS
WELL...LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. INCLUDED
VCTS IN THE TAF AS NAILING DOWN A TIME IS DIFFICULT. SO EVEN
THROUGH IT IS LIKELY WE WILL GET RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS...I OPTED
FOR A LONGER WINDOW OF VCTS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
350 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF SHORE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOL AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...THE LAST OF THE -RA/DZ IS EXITING THE COAST
WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST. POCKETS OF STRATO-CUMULUS
WILL PERSIST A WHILE LONGER...WHILE STRATUS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. STRATUS AND FOG ARE A BETTER BET FARTHER
INLAND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THOSE AREAS WHERE SKIES ALREADY CLEARED
AND VERY LIGHT WINDS. ANY STRATUS/FOG WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES INTO THE LOWER COLUMN RESULTING IN
A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 80F MOST
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWS AROUND 60 INLAND...TO THE LOWER
60S AT THE COAST. EXPECT STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP INLAND AGAIN TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN FROM THE
NORTH INTO THE CAROLINAS REMAINING FAIRLY WEAK WED THROUGH THURS.
AT THE SAME TIME A FLAT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHARPEN AS RIDGE
BUILDS UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT THROUGH MID WEEK. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE E-SE AND LIGHTENING UP AS HIGH
SHIFTS EAST THROUGH TIME. PCP WATER VALUES DOWN LESS THAN AN INCH
MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY DUE TO A LITTLE IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH IN
THE UPPER LEVELS LATER ON WED AND SOME CU DEVELOPMENT IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE BOTH AFTERNOONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND WARM TEMPS AS RIDGE BUILDS AND HEIGHTS RISE ALONG WITH EARLY
FALL SUNSHINE.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S ACROSS THE SC PEE DEE
REGION...LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE EXCEPT A LITTLE COOLER AT THE BEACHES
WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN THEIR SEASONAL DROP...NOW IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH MID-
UPPER 60S AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH FRI AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. THIS INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AND POTENTIAL FOR SHWRS THROUGH THE DAY. PCP WATER VALUES AS LOW
AS AN INCH FRI MORNING WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES UP TO 2
INCHES BY AFTN OVER INLAND AREAS AS LLJ UP TO 30 KTS PROVIDES A
DECENT FEED OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS INLAND BY AFTN AND REACHING THE COAST
BY EVENING AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
PUSHING FRONT EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE TROUGH DOES BECOME
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS REACHING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS MAY DELAY THE
CLEARING ON SATURDAY BUT OVERALL EXPECT A DEEP DRY W-NW FLOW TO
PRODUCE SOME EXCEPTIONAL FALL LIKE WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEWPOINT TEMPS MAY END UP BELOW
50 DEGREES BY SUNDAY. THIS DRY AIR WILL ALLOW LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS
IN TEMPS WITH COOL START TO THE MORNINGS SUN AND MON AND TEMPS
REACHING INTO THE MID 70S MOST PLACES FOR AFTN HIGHS WITH BRIGHT
SUNSHINE. PCP WATER VALUES WILL PLUMMET TO A HALF INCH OR LESS BY
SUNDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE DOWN IN THE 50S SUN AND
MON.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE -RA FROM EARLIER TONIGHT HAS MOSTLY PUSHED
OFFSHORE...AND THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND OFF THE COAST.
SURFACE OBS INDICATE FOG IS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS
WHERE THE WINDS HAVE GONE CALM AND THE MID LEVEL CIGS ARE NO MORE.
THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED TEMPO IFR VSBYS FOR KLBT/KFLO EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND FOLLOWS SOME OF THE LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOWING
FOG/STRATUS EXPANDING INLAND AFTER 09Z. STILL THINK THE DEVELOPING
LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP WINDS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FOG...BUT SOME TEMPO IFR
CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT BY DAYBREAK. WILL KEEP SCT 500 FT STRATUS
AT THE COAST ATTM. DURING THE DAY... DRIER AIR BEHIND THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST FOR THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KT DURING
THE DAY...BECOMING LIGHT/VRB AFTER 00Z WED.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH LOW PRESSURE
POSITIONED SOUTH...THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST...OF THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE MORE OF A FACTOR ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND
FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS ALL WATERS
BY 00Z WED WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL BE LOWEST ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE BRUNSWICK WATERS WHERE THE
FLOW WILL BE OFFSHORE. LIKEWISE...EXPECT SEAS TO BE HIGHER IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OUTER FRYING PAN SHOALS WATERS WITH SHORTER PERIOD
SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT IN A RELAXED GRADIENT..STARTING OUT FROM THE NORTHEAST AND
VEERING AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE AND EVENTUALLY SE BY FRI
MORNING AS THE HIGH MIGRATES EASTWARD WITH TIME. NEAR SHORE WINDS
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE SEA BREEZE CAUSING A SLIGHT SPIKE IN
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOONS. SEAS WILL BASICALLY BE 3 FT OR
LESS...SUBSIDING A BIT FROM WED TO THURS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL START THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OFF SHORE. AN INCREASING
RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT SE WINDS TO INCREASE UP TO
15 TO 20 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH BY FRI EVE. THIS WILL KICK SEAS UP
FROM AROUND 2 FT EARLY FRI TO 3 TO 5 FT BY SAT MORNING. MAY RUN
INTO A FEW HOURS OF SCA CONDITIONS IN STRONGEST ON SHORE PUSH
RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY MORNING THE
WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NW REMAINING UP TO 15 KTS INITIALLY
BUT LIGHTENING UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE OFF SHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP HIGHER SEAS WELL OFF SHORE BY LATE SATURDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT
LOCAL WATERS DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SAT EVENING.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR/SRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
330 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...
UPDATE: FOG HAS BECOME QUITE DENSE OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC (WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS)... WARRANTING ISSUANCE OF A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM. VSBYS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
DURING THE 9AM-11AM TIME FRAME.
EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 222 AM TUESDAY...
TODAY... FIRST CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING IS THE DEGREE OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA THUS FAR. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS NOW HEADING EAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST... WITH THE VEIL OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS DEPARTING ALONG WITH IT. THE DAMP GROUND COMBINED
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT PATCHY/FLEETING NATURE OF THESE CONDITIONS
(SEVERAL SITES HAVE BOUNCED AROUND BETWEEN 1/4 MI AND 5 MI IN FOG
THE LAST FEW HRS) GIVES US PAUSE AS TO THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. THE HRRR DEPICTS A FAIRLY SOLID DECK OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
FORMING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE OBSERVED TRENDS. IF VSBYS DO DROP AND HOLD THERE FOR OVER AN
HOUR... THEY`RE LIKELY TO HOLD FIRM THROUGH MID MORNING... GIVEN THE
WEAK WIND FIELD THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET RESULTING IN
MINIMAL STIRRING/DISPERSION HORIZONTALLY OR VERTICALLY. WILL KEEP
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MID MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. THEN... ONCE HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT MIXING HELPS TO DISPERSE
THE FOG/STRATUS... EXPECT A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY...
WITH FLAT AFTERNOON STRATOCU LIKELY TO STAY SCATTERED AT WORST. WITH
THICKNESSES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS... STILL LOOK FOR HIGHS WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF 80.
FOR TONIGHT: THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE NE WELL OFF THE SE
COAST WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR SE TO MINIMIZE ANY IMPACT ON CENTRAL
NC. THE WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN HOLDS WITH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SPANNING THE AREA AND A VERY WEAK SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH
OVER PA/WV/VA... A REFLECTION OF THE CLIPPER MID LEVEL VORTEX NOW
OVER ERN MI THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MIDATLANTIC REGION REGION
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MODELS VARY IN THEIR IMPACTS ON
OUR WEATHER WITH THIS FEATURE... WITH THE NAM MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN
THE GFS IN TAKING A SLUG OF 850-700 MB MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE BUT IT IS SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM... SO WILL RETAIN A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA OVERNIGHT... AND LATER FORECASTS CAN INCREASE THIS COVERAGE IF
LATER GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE NAM. LOWS 57-60. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...
AS NOTED ABOVE... WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
MAINLY OVER THE EAST WED MORNING. THE PRESENCE OR LACK OF SUCH
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH FOG FORMS WED MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME LIGHT FOG TO START THE DAY... AND PERHAPS MORE DENSE IF
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER-ASSOCIATED CLOUDS DO NOT HAPPEN.
OTHERWISE... EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. THE CLIPPER LOW
WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND AS THE STRONG VORTICITY MAX ROUNDS ITS
BASE... SHIFTING OFF THE NJ COAST... AND WE SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE
FLAT DAYTIME CUMULUS FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE
LOW. MODELS SHOW WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
LATE... BETWEEN THE DEPARTING CLIPPER AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
COVERING THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS LATE WED/WED NIGHT.
WHILE MODELS SHOW A MINOR PERTURBATION TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WED NIGHT... THIS SHOULD BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE
WITH DEEP DRY AIR MOVING IN. EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH WED NIGHT.
THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO START WED ABOUT 10 M ABOVE NORMAL...
SUPPORTING HIGHS ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL... 80-84. SOME
CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST WHERE MODELS
INDICATE AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT GENERATED BY
LIGHT BUT CONFLUENT AND UPSLOPE-DIRECTED LOW LEVEL FLOW. LOWS WITHIN
A COUPLE DEGREES OF 60. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY...WITH THE AXIS
MOVING EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO FORECAST
VERY MINOR QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH
THE GFS FORECASTING THIS THURSDAY AND THE NAM MORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS DOES HAVE A RELATIVE MAXIMUM OF 850MB THETA-E AIR OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY WITH WEAK 850MB LIFT...BUT HEIGHTS
ALOFT ARE RISING AND ANY LOW-LEVEL FORCING WITH ANY SURFACE BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE WEAK. LIFTED INDICES ARE ABOVE 0C...AND MLCAPE IN THE
LOWEST KM DOES NOT REGISTER AS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS APPEAR CAPPED. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES...POSSIBLY A SHOWER COULD DRIFT SOUTHEAST FOLLOWING THE
THERMAL WIND FROM HIGHER TERRAIN AND GET CLOSE TO THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE IN SINGLE FIGURES
IN BOTH THE MAV AND THE MET. WITH AT LEAST A PARTLY SUNNY SKY
EXPECTED...1000-850MB THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST LOWER TO MID 80S FOR
HIGHS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH MAV AND MET MOS GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR 60 IN THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE
NIGHT...LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE AND POSSIBLY ON THE HIGHER END OF THE
LOWER 60S TOWARD THE TRIAD AS THE WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE START TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF AN
ELONGATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY
00Z SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. ONE TREND
HAS BEEN FOR THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED...
WHICH...IF THE TREND CONTINUES...COULD SLOW THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. LAPSE RATES ON COARSE GFS
AND ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC AT BEST...SO
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED. STILL...WITH WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE
INCREASING TO AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE 30KT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY STRONGER STORM COULD HAVE A GUSTY
WIND...THOUGH NOT CONFIDENT CURENTLY IN THE PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
BE FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH THE ECMWF DOES CONTINUE
TO FORECAST GREATER DIGGING WITH UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND EAST ACROSS AREAS JUST NORTH OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...THE TREND OF THIS WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED...BUT CURRENTLY THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW ON THE ECMWF STAYS NORTH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY
OR SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...SOME JET STREAK CIRRUS COULD OCCUR IF
THE GFS AND ECMWF UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FORECASTS VERIFY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE JET AXIS ALOFT.
THE ECMWF IS ALSO MORE AMPLIFIED WITH ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF MID-
LEVEL WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...THIS ONE APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MONDAY. THE GFS IS DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING...
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF A SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THE MID-LEVEL
WAVE AND ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF...IF THERE IS ANY
PRECIPITATION MONDAY...THE THOUGHT IS IT WOULD BE MID-LEVEL DRIVEN
AND MOSTLY LIGHT. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL TREND A LITTLE MORE
PESSIMISTIC ON THE LAST DAY OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...INCREASING
CLOUDS BUT KEEPING THE OVERALL FORECAST DRY.
AFTER HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS CHILLY 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES INTO THE 1340S...THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW 40S OVER
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MODEST WARMING FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK AT LEAST IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM TUESDAY...
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC
THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z THIS MORNING... WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TO FOLLOW
BY LATE MORNING... WHICH WILL HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD (06Z WED). THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING... TAKING WITH
IT THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS ANY THREAT OF ADDITIONAL PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN. THE CLEARING CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL FOSTER FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING. THESE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS HOWEVER WILL BE FLEETING... WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG NOT A
SOLID DECK BUT IN DISCONTINUOUS PATCHES... MAKING THE TAFS
CHALLENGING THIS MORNING. PILOTS SHOULD BE PARTICULARLY ALERT FOR
POSSIBLE VFR HOLES WITHIN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE... ANY CIGS SHOULD BREAK UP BY 15Z OR 16Z... WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE (MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST)
MOSTLY UNDER 5 KTS TODAY/TONIGHT.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY WED MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRI... ALTHOUGH SHALLOW IFR GROUND FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE 08Z-13Z EACH MORNING WED THROUGH FRI. A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS SAT. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM
EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>077.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
300 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 222 AM TUESDAY...
TODAY... FIRST CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING IS THE DEGREE OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA THUS FAR. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS NOW HEADING EAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST... WITH THE VEIL OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS DEPARTING ALONG WITH IT. THE DAMP GROUND COMBINED
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT PATCHY/FLEETING NATURE OF THESE CONDITIONS
(SEVERAL SITES HAVE BOUNCED AROUND BETWEEN 1/4 MI AND 5 MI IN FOG
THE LAST FEW HRS) GIVES US PAUSE AS TO THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. THE HRRR DEPICTS A FAIRLY SOLID DECK OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
FORMING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE OBSERVED TRENDS. IF VSBYS DO DROP AND HOLD THERE FOR OVER AN
HOUR... THEY`RE LIKELY TO HOLD FIRM THROUGH MID MORNING... GIVEN THE
WEAK WIND FIELD THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET RESULTING IN
MINIMAL STIRRING/DISPERSION HORIZONTALLY OR VERTICALLY. WILL KEEP
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MID MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. THEN... ONCE HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT MIXING HELPS TO DISPERSE
THE FOG/STRATUS... EXPECT A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY...
WITH FLAT AFTERNOON STRATOCU LIKELY TO STAY SCATTERED AT WORST. WITH
THICKNESSES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS... STILL LOOK FOR HIGHS WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF 80.
FOR TONIGHT: THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE NE WELL OFF THE SE
COAST WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR SE TO MINIMIZE ANY IMPACT ON CENTRAL
NC. THE WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN HOLDS WITH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SPANNING THE AREA AND A VERY WEAK SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH
OVER PA/WV/VA... A REFLECTION OF THE CLIPPER MID LEVEL VORTEX NOW
OVER ERN MI THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MIDATLANTIC REGION REGION
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MODELS VARY IN THEIR IMPACTS ON
OUR WEATHER WITH THIS FEATURE... WITH THE NAM MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN
THE GFS IN TAKING A SLUG OF 850-700 MB MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE BUT IT IS SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM... SO WILL RETAIN A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA OVERNIGHT... AND LATER FORECASTS CAN INCREASE THIS COVERAGE IF
LATER GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE NAM. LOWS 57-60. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...
AS NOTED ABOVE... WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
MAINLY OVER THE EAST WED MORNING. THE PRESENCE OR LACK OF SUCH
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH FOG FORMS WED MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME LIGHT FOG TO START THE DAY... AND PERHAPS MORE DENSE IF
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER-ASSOCIATED CLOUDS DO NOT HAPPEN.
OTHERWISE... EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. THE CLIPPER LOW
WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND AS THE STRONG VORTICITY MAX ROUNDS ITS
BASE... SHIFTING OFF THE NJ COAST... AND WE SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE
FLAT DAYTIME CUMULUS FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE
LOW. MODELS SHOW WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
LATE... BETWEEN THE DEPARTING CLIPPER AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
COVERING THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS LATE WED/WED NIGHT.
WHILE MODELS SHOW A MINOR PERTURBATION TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WED NIGHT... THIS SHOULD BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE
WITH DEEP DRY AIR MOVING IN. EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH WED NIGHT.
THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO START WED ABOUT 10 M ABOVE NORMAL...
SUPPORTING HIGHS ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL... 80-84. SOME
CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST WHERE MODELS
INDICATE AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT GENERATED BY
LIGHT BUT CONFLUENT AND UPSLOPE-DIRECTED LOW LEVEL FLOW. LOWS WITHIN
A COUPLE DEGREES OF 60. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY...WITH THE AXIS
MOVING EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO FORECAST
VERY MINOR QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH
THE GFS FORECASTING THIS THURSDAY AND THE NAM MORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS DOES HAVE A RELATIVE MAXIMUM OF 850MB THETA-E AIR OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY WITH WEAK 850MB LIFT...BUT HEIGHTS
ALOFT ARE RISING AND ANY LOW-LEVEL FORCING WITH ANY SURFACE BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE WEAK. LIFTED INDICES ARE ABOVE 0C...AND MLCAPE IN THE
LOWEST KM DOES NOT REGISTER AS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS APPEAR CAPPED. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES...POSSIBLY A SHOWER COULD DRIFT SOUTHEAST FOLLOWING THE
THERMAL WIND FROM HIGHER TERRAIN AND GET CLOSE TO THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE IN SINGLE FIGURES
IN BOTH THE MAV AND THE MET. WITH AT LEAST A PARTLY SUNNY SKY
EXPECTED...1000-850MB THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST LOWER TO MID 80S FOR
HIGHS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH MAV AND MET MOS GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR 60 IN THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE
NIGHT...LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE AND POSSIBLY ON THE HIGHER END OF THE
LOWER 60S TOWARD THE TRIAD AS THE WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE START TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF AN
ELONGATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY
00Z SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. ONE TREND
HAS BEEN FOR THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED...
WHICH...IF THE TREND CONTINUES...COULD SLOW THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. LAPSE RATES ON COARSE GFS
AND ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC AT BEST...SO
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED. STILL...WITH WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE
INCREASING TO AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE 30KT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY STRONGER STORM COULD HAVE A GUSTY
WIND...THOUGH NOT CONFIDENT CURENTLY IN THE PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
BE FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH THE ECMWF DOES CONTINUE
TO FORECAST GREATER DIGGING WITH UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND EAST ACROSS AREAS JUST NORTH OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...THE TREND OF THIS WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED...BUT CURRENTLY THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW ON THE ECMWF STAYS NORTH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY
OR SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...SOME JET STREAK CIRRUS COULD OCCUR IF
THE GFS AND ECMWF UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FORECASTS VERIFY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE JET AXIS ALOFT.
THE ECMWF IS ALSO MORE AMPLIFIED WITH ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF MID-
LEVEL WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...THIS ONE APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MONDAY. THE GFS IS DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING...
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF A SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THE MID-LEVEL
WAVE AND ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF...IF THERE IS ANY
PRECIPITATION MONDAY...THE THOUGHT IS IT WOULD BE MID-LEVEL DRIVEN
AND MOSTLY LIGHT. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL TREND A LITTLE MORE
PESSIMISTIC ON THE LAST DAY OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...INCREASING
CLOUDS BUT KEEPING THE OVERALL FORECAST DRY.
AFTER HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS CHILLY 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES INTO THE 1340S...THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW 40S OVER
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MODEST WARMING FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK AT LEAST IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM TUESDAY...
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC
THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z THIS MORNING... WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TO FOLLOW
BY LATE MORNING... WHICH WILL HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD (06Z WED). THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING... TAKING WITH
IT THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS ANY THREAT OF ADDITIONAL PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN. THE CLEARING CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL FOSTER FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING. THESE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS HOWEVER WILL BE FLEETING... WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG NOT A
SOLID DECK BUT IN DISCONTINUOUS PATCHES... MAKING THE TAFS
CHALLENGING THIS MORNING. PILOTS SHOULD BE PARTICULARLY ALERT FOR
POSSIBLE VFR HOLES WITHIN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE... ANY CIGS SHOULD BREAK UP BY 15Z OR 16Z... WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE (MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST)
MOSTLY UNDER 5 KTS TODAY/TONIGHT.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY WED MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRI... ALTHOUGH SHALLOW IFR GROUND FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE 08Z-13Z EACH MORNING WED THROUGH FRI. A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS SAT. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
245 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 222 AM TUESDAY...
TODAY... FIRST CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING IS THE DEGREE OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA THUS FAR. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS NOW HEADING EAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST... WITH THE VEIL OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS DEPARTING ALONG WITH IT. THE DAMP GROUND COMBINED
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT PATCHY/FLEETING NATURE OF THESE CONDITIONS
(SEVERAL SITES HAVE BOUNCED AROUND BETWEEN 1/4 MI AND 5 MI IN FOG
THE LAST FEW HRS) GIVES US PAUSE AS TO THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. THE HRRR DEPICTS A FAIRLY SOLID DECK OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
FORMING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE OBSERVED TRENDS. IF VSBYS DO DROP AND HOLD THERE FOR OVER AN
HOUR... THEY`RE LIKELY TO HOLD FIRM THROUGH MID MORNING... GIVEN THE
WEAK WIND FIELD THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET RESULTING IN
MINIMAL STIRRING/DISPERSION HORIZONTALLY OR VERTICALLY. WILL KEEP
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MID MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. THEN... ONCE HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT MIXING HELPS TO DISPERSE
THE FOG/STRATUS... EXPECT A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY...
WITH FLAT AFTERNOON STRATOCU LIKELY TO STAY SCATTERED AT WORST. WITH
THICKNESSES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS... STILL LOOK FOR HIGHS WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF 80.
FOR TONIGHT: THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE NE WELL OFF THE SE
COAST WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR SE TO MINIMIZE ANY IMPACT ON CENTRAL
NC. THE WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN HOLDS WITH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SPANNING THE AREA AND A VERY WEAK SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH
OVER PA/WV/VA... A REFLECTION OF THE CLIPPER MID LEVEL VORTEX NOW
OVER ERN MI THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MIDATLANTIC REGION REGION
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MODELS VARY IN THEIR IMPACTS ON
OUR WEATHER WITH THIS FEATURE... WITH THE NAM MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN
THE GFS IN TAKING A SLUG OF 850-700 MB MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE BUT IT IS SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM... SO WILL RETAIN A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA OVERNIGHT... AND LATER FORECASTS CAN INCREASE THIS COVERAGE IF
LATER GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE NAM. LOWS 57-60. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...
AS NOTED ABOVE... WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
MAINLY OVER THE EAST WED MORNING. THE PRESENCE OR LACK OF SUCH
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH FOG FORMS WED MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME LIGHT FOG TO START THE DAY... AND PERHAPS MORE DENSE IF
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER-ASSOCIATED CLOUDS DO NOT HAPPEN.
OTHERWISE... EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. THE CLIPPER LOW
WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND AS THE STRONG VORTICITY MAX ROUNDS ITS
BASE... SHIFTING OFF THE NJ COAST... AND WE SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE
FLAT DAYTIME CUMULUS FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE
LOW. MODELS SHOW WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
LATE... BETWEEN THE DEPARTING CLIPPER AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
COVERING THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS LATE WED/WED NIGHT.
WHILE MODELS SHOW A MINOR PERTURBATION TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WED NIGHT... THIS SHOULD BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE
WITH DEEP DRY AIR MOVING IN. EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH WED NIGHT.
THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO START WED ABOUT 10 M ABOVE NORMAL...
SUPPORTING HIGHS ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL... 80-84. SOME
CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST WHERE MODELS
INDICATE AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT GENERATED BY
LIGHT BUT CONFLUENT AND UPSLOPE-DIRECTED LOW LEVEL FLOW. LOWS WITHIN
A COUPLE DEGREES OF 60. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE...ALONG WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT...SET UP OVER THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE FAIRLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SUGGEST SOME AFTERNOON SHALLOW CU BENEATH
THE MID-LEVEL INVERSION. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AROUND 1395 SUGGESTS
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL... HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS AROUND
60.
THE NEXT WEATHER-MAKER FOR US WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT`S NOW
PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE LATE ON FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING AHEAD OF IT THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
RAPID MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY AS SW FLOW IN THE BL INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE END
RESULT NOWS LOOKS LIKE A BAND OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC PERHAPS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. AS FOR INTENSITY...MOST OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE OF SHOWER VARIETY...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
SOME SKINNY CAPE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...
BUT MORE NOTABLY 30-40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON INSTABILITY TRENDS WITH FUTURE MODELS RUNS. OF COURSE THE
TIMING OF THIS WILL BE FINE-TUNED AS WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER...SO IF
YOU HAVE OUTDOOR EVENTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING...YOU`LL
DEFINITELY WANT TO CHECK BACK LATER THIS WEEK FOR AN UPDATE.
NOW LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE WELL OFF THE COAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH A COOLING AND DRYING TREND IN ITS WAKE FOR THIS
WEEKEND. A LITTLE BREEZY ON SATURDAY IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AS
THE HIGH`S BUILDING IN...BUT OVERALL SHOULD SEE DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO - OR PERHAPS A
LITTLE BELOW- NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM TUESDAY...
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC
THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z THIS MORNING... WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TO FOLLOW
BY LATE MORNING... WHICH WILL HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD (06Z WED). THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING... TAKING WITH
IT THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS ANY THREAT OF ADDITIONAL PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN. THE CLEARING CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL FOSTER FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING. THESE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS HOWEVER WILL BE FLEETING... WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG NOT A
SOLID DECK BUT IN DISCONTINUOUS PATCHES... MAKING THE TAFS
CHALLENGING THIS MORNING. PILOTS SHOULD BE PARTICULARLY ALERT FOR
POSSIBLE VFR HOLES WITHIN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE... ANY CIGS SHOULD BREAK UP BY 15Z OR 16Z... WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE (MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST)
MOSTLY UNDER 5 KTS TODAY/TONIGHT.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY WED MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRI... ALTHOUGH SHALLOW IFR GROUND FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE 08Z-13Z EACH MORNING WED THROUGH FRI. A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS SAT. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
222 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 222 AM TUESDAY...
TODAY... FIRST CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING IS THE DEGREE OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA THUS FAR. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS NOW HEADING EAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST... WITH THE VEIL OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS DEPARTING ALONG WITH IT. THE DAMP GROUND COMBINED
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT PATCHY/FLEETING NATURE OF THESE CONDITIONS
(SEVERAL SITES HAVE BOUNCED AROUND BETWEEN 1/4 MI AND 5 MI IN FOG
THE LAST FEW HRS) GIVES US PAUSE AS TO THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. THE HRRR DEPICTS A FAIRLY SOLID DECK OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
FORMING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE OBSERVED TRENDS. IF VSBYS DO DROP AND HOLD THERE FOR OVER AN
HOUR... THEY`RE LIKELY TO HOLD FIRM THROUGH MID MORNING... GIVEN THE
WEAK WIND FIELD THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET RESULTING IN
MINIMAL STIRRING/DISPERSION HORIZONTALLY OR VERTICALLY. WILL KEEP
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MID MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. THEN... ONCE HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT MIXING HELPS TO DISPERSE
THE FOG/STRATUS... EXPECT A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY...
WITH FLAT AFTERNOON STRATOCU LIKELY TO STAY SCATTERED AT WORST. WITH
THICKNESSES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS... STILL LOOK FOR HIGHS WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF 80.
FOR TONIGHT: THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE NE WELL OFF THE SE
COAST WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR SE TO MINIMIZE ANY IMPACT ON CENTRAL
NC. THE WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN HOLDS WITH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SPANNING THE AREA AND A VERY WEAK SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH
OVER PA/WV/VA... A REFLECTION OF THE CLIPPER MID LEVEL VORTEX NOW
OVER ERN MI THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MIDATLANTIC REGION REGION
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MODELS VARY IN THEIR IMPACTS ON
OUR WEATHER WITH THIS FEATURE... WITH THE NAM MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN
THE GFS IN TAKING A SLUG OF 850-700 MB MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE BUT IT IS SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM... SO WILL RETAIN A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA OVERNIGHT... AND LATER FORECASTS CAN INCREASE THIS COVERAGE IF
LATER GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE NAM. LOWS 57-60. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM MONDAY...
TO BE UPDATED SHORTLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE...ALONG WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT...SET UP OVER THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE FAIRLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SUGGEST SOME AFTERNOON SHALLOW CU BENEATH
THE MID-LEVEL INVERSION. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AROUND 1395 SUGGESTS
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL... HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS AROUND
60.
THE NEXT WEATHER-MAKER FOR US WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT`S NOW
PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE LATE ON FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING AHEAD OF IT THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
RAPID MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY AS SW FLOW IN THE BL INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE END
RESULT NOWS LOOKS LIKE A BAND OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC PERHAPS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. AS FOR INTENSITY...MOST OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE OF SHOWER VARIETY...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
SOME SKINNY CAPE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...
BUT MORE NOTABLY 30-40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON INSTABILITY TRENDS WITH FUTURE MODELS RUNS. OF COURSE THE
TIMING OF THIS WILL BE FINE-TUNED AS WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER...SO IF
YOU HAVE OUTDOOR EVENTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING...YOU`LL
DEFINITELY WANT TO CHECK BACK LATER THIS WEEK FOR AN UPDATE.
NOW LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE WELL OFF THE COAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH A COOLING AND DRYING TREND IN ITS WAKE FOR THIS
WEEKEND. A LITTLE BREEZY ON SATURDAY IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AS
THE HIGH`S BUILDING IN...BUT OVERALL SHOULD SEE DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO - OR PERHAPS A
LITTLE BELOW- NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM TUESDAY...
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC
THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z THIS MORNING... WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TO FOLLOW
BY LATE MORNING... WHICH WILL HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD (06Z WED). THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING... TAKING WITH
IT THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS ANY THREAT OF ADDITIONAL PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN. THE CLEARING CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL FOSTER FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING. THESE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS HOWEVER WILL BE FLEETING... WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG NOT A
SOLID DECK BUT IN DISCONTINUOUS PATCHES... MAKING THE TAFS
CHALLENGING THIS MORNING. PILOTS SHOULD BE PARTICULARLY ALERT FOR
POSSIBLE VFR HOLES WITHIN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE... ANY CIGS SHOULD BREAK UP BY 15Z OR 16Z... WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE (MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST)
MOSTLY UNDER 5 KTS TODAY/TONIGHT.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY WED MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRI... ALTHOUGH SHALLOW IFR GROUND FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE 08Z-13Z EACH MORNING WED THROUGH FRI. A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS SAT. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
120 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST WILL MOVE FARTHER
OFFSHORE THROUGH TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM MONDAY...LATEST 88D TRENDS ILLUSTRATE THE MAIN RAIN
SHIELD HAS MOVED OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS. THIS LEAVES PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE THRU
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATM COLUMN AND AM HESITANT TO PLACE FOG IN
THE FCST. WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD STAY ACTIVE VIA
THE LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE FROM GA-SC COASTS. HAVE KEPT A STRATUS
CLOUD DECK THRUOUT THE OVERNIGHT...AND UP THRU SEVERAL HOURS AFTER
DAYBREAK TUE. THIS SHOULD ALSO HOLD THE FOG TO A MINIMUM. MIN
TEMP FCST STILL IN THE BALLPARK AND SEE NO REASON TO TWEAK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...........................................
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...THE PCPN
CONSISTING OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...IS COMING TO AN END FROM
WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. LATEST HRRR ALSO
ILLUSTRATES THE MAIN PCPN SHIELD SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY 1AM
TO 3AM TUESDAY...LEAVING PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
HAVE BEEN RE-CALCULATED AS A RESULT. BECAME MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH
ANY CLEARING DUE TO PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVBL FROM THE SFC THRU 600
MB AS SHOWN BY THE LATEST NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FA...WELL
AFTER THE TIME PCPN COMES TO AN END. VERY LITTLE TWEAKING TO
TONIGHTS MINS NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY...WITH A DRY PUNCH IN THE
MID LEVELS SCOURING OUT ALL THE MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB. A FLAT
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION AROUND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE (MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS) WILL KEEP NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE LOW
LEVELS WITH ONLY A GRADUAL DRYING/CLEARING TREND EXPECTED. ALONG
THE COAST THIS MEANS IT MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON FOR LOW
CLOUDS TO BREAK...BUT INLAND SKIES SHOULD TURN PARTLY CLOUDY
DURING THE MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE 12Z GFS LOOKS MOST REASONABLE WITH MASS
FIELDS IT MAY BE A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE CLEARING CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST AND I HAVE TRENDED MY FORECAST HIGHS A LITTLE BENEATH THE
12Z GFS MOS AS A RESULT...79-81 OVER SE NORTH CAROLINA AND 80-82
OVER NE SOUTH CAROLINA.
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A MODEST SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY LEAD TO A
FEW EVENING CLOUDS BUT SKIES SHOULD BECOME CLEAR BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY BE A TOUCH TOO STRONG FOR FOG ALTHOUGH
THE MOISTURE PROFILES OTHERWISE LOOK PRETTY GOOD FOR FOG. LOWS
SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 60 INLAND...WITH LOWER 60S COASTAL AREAS AND
SOME MID 60S ON THE BEACHES.
WITH EVEN LESS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE (PRECIP WATER VALUES 0.8
TO 0.9 INCHES) EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY SKIES SHOULD BE ESSENTIALLY
CLEAR. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHEASTERLY ALONG THE
COAST WITH A LIGHT SEABREEZE CIRCULATION. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
MID 80S ACROSS THE SC PEE DEE REGION...LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE EXCEPT
A LITTLE COOLER AT THE BEACHES WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN
THEIR SEASONAL DROP...NOW IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. VERY LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WOULD ARGUE FOR FOG...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE MAY NOT BE QUITE DEEP ENOUGH ACCORDING TO THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH MID-UPPER 60S AT
THE BEACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINNING FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY WITH DECENT FORCING AND WITH
GUIDANCE SHOWING AN EVEN DEEPER TROUGH...MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM
THE ATLANTIC IS STRONGER HENCE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS FOR THE EVENT.
WITH THE TROUGH GOING A LITTLE NEGATIVE TILT...THE FRONT MAY SLOW
BEFORE CLEARING OUT SATURDAY AND HAVE EXTENDED POPS A BIT TO
ADDRESS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE VERY NICE UNDER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S CWA WIDE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 05Z...THE -RA FROM EARLIER TONIGHT HAS MOSTLY PUSHED
OFFSHORE...AND THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN OVERNIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND OFF THE COAST. SURFACE OBS
INDICATE FOG IS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS WHERE THE
WINDS HAVE GONE CALM AND THE MID LEVEL CIGS ARE NO MORE.
THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED TEMPO IFR VSBYS FOR KLBT/KFLO EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND FOLLOWS SOME OF THE LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOWING
FOG/STRATUS EXPANDING INLAND AFTER 09Z. STILL THINK THE DEVELOPING
LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP WINDS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FOG...BUT SOME TEMPO IFR CIGS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BY DAYBREAK. WILL KEEP SCT 500 FT STRATUS AT THE COAST
ATTM. DURING THE DAY... DRIER AIR BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW
VFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KT DURING THE DAY...BECOMING
LIGHT/VRB AFTER 00Z WED.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM MONDAY...CURRENTLY A BROAD LOW EXTENDS OFF THE GA-FL
COASTS FROM NE GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A
DEVELOPING SFC LOW OFFSHORE AND EAST OF THE GA COAST BY DAYBREAK
TUE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT
ACROSS THE ILM WATERS THAT WILL YIELD NE 10-20 KT OVERNIGHT INTO
DAYLIGHT TUE. THE HIGHER END OF THIS SCALE TO OCCUR CLOSER TO THE
LOW...OVER THE ILM SC WATERS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FT
RANGE...EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST ILM SC WATERS.
FOUR TO 6 SECOND PERIOD...WIND DRIVEN WAVES TO DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..............................................
AS OF 745 PM MONDAY...COASTAL TROF OR FRONT TO REMAIN OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS JUST EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. WEAK
SFC LOW TO MOVE OFF THE GA-FL COAST EARLY THIS EVENING...AND MOVE
ENE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT STAYING OFFSHORE TO A POSITION
OF 140NM SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR BY DAYBREAK TUE. THE LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN-SOME AND HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE LOCAL WINDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE ILM SC WATERS. FOR NOW WILL FORECAST A SOLID 10-15 KT
BUT MAY INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 KT OR A 15-20 KT RANGE FOR THE ILM SC
WATERS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST OFF
CAPE FEAR AND OFF FROM THE MOUTH OF WINYAH BAY. FIVE FOOTERS ARE A
POSSIBILITY OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST WATERS...WILL MONITOR. LOOKING AT
4 TO 5 SECONDS FOR AVERAGE PERIODS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN TUESDAY MORNING OFF
THE GEORGIA COAST ALONG AN OLD FRONT. AS THIS LOW MOVES AWAY FROM
THE COASTLINE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS...REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS MEANS AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE OF NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE STRONGEST WINDS...NC AROUND 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 18-20 KNOTS...ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DIMINISHING
AROUND SUNSET TUESDAY EVENING. LIGHTER NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD
DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A
WEAK SEABREEZE SHOULD TURN WIND DIRECTIONS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY.
SEAS 3-4 FEET TUESDAY WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 2 FEET. AMONG THE
VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS THE 12Z GFS LOOKS THE BEST FOLLOWED BY THE
00Z ECMWF.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...VERY LIGHT WIND FIELDS THURSDAY WILL GIVE
WAY TO STRONGER WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE WEAKENING THURSDAY AND EAST WINDS WILL TURN TO SOUTHEAST
LATE. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PICK UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
10-15 KNOTS. THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE WATERS EARLY SATURDAY WITH
A NORTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS ENSUING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE
1-3 FEET THURSDAY AND MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY. SATURDAY THE RANGE
WILL INCREASE TO 2-4 FEET WITH THE HIGHER SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR/SRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
348 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS SOUTHEAST...BRUSHES AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE/LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHES OF CLOUDS STILL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT 07Z...OTHERWISE VALLEY
FOG PREVAILS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS MID/UPPER TROF OVER LAKE
HURON AND MICHIGAN DROPPING SOUTHEAST. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT/WIND
SHIFT WAS APPROACHING TOL AND STILL NORTH OF IND.
AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THE MAIN COOLING ALOFT TODAY WILL BE NORTH
OF OUR CWA. FOR EXAMPLE...00Z NAM HAS 500 MB TEMP AT PBZ COOLING
ABOUT 5C TODAY...WHILE CKB ONLY ABOUT A DEG C. SO TIMING THE
POPS...AND HOW FAR SOUTH TO MENTION PCPN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IS ONE CHALLENGE. AFTER DIGESTING THE MODELS...SEE NO
REASON TO CHANGE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS
HTS-CRW VCNTY FOR THIS EVENING. THIS IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN
MOST 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS. FURTHER NNE...HAVE POPS MAXING OUT AROUND
40 PCT FOR N CNTRL WV FROM 22Z TODAY TO 01Z WEDNESDAY.
DRY AIR SOUTH OF THAT DISTURBANCE FOR TODAY. RAP SOLUTION TRIES TO
EVEN LOWER DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S. MAYBE ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN LIKE
BKW...BUT DID NOT GO THAT LOW IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS.
MAIN PUSH BEHIND FRONT IS INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO...BEFORE 925 MB WINDS
QUICKLY VEER TO EAST OR DIMINISH TO CALM. THINKING LOW STRATUS WILL
FORM TONIGHT IN SE OHIO BEHIND FRONT. FURTHER SOUTH IN THE COAL
FIELDS OF WV...WAS THINKING JUST THE USUAL DIURNAL LATE NIGHT FOG.
FURTHER NORTH...LINGERING CLOUDS MAY HINDER OR DELAY THE FOG
FORMATION AROUND CKB AND EKN. HTS-CRW CORRIDOR IS A TOUGH CALL
BETWEEN ALL 3 FOR LATE TONIGHT...PATCHES OF CLOUDS LINGERING
OVERNIGHT...STRATUS FORMATION...OR SURFACE BASED FOG FORMING.
OVERALL KEPT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GFS MOS
GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE HEADING EAST OUT TO SEA TO START THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...ANTICIPATE LOTS OF LOW
STRATUS WEDNESDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY BREAKING UP THROUGH THE DAY.
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE DO NOT EXPECT THESE
CLOUDS. WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUDS...ALSO LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
SEVERAL DEGREES IN SE OHIO. BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED MET INTO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HAVE A LITTLE TRAILING VORT MAX COMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PASSES THURSDAY WITH A
WARMER...SUNNY DAY. AGAIN BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS...BLENDED IN BIAS
CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
L/W TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA THIS PERIOD. RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY FRI AS LEAD SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH CROSSES JUST OUT AHEAD OF
SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH IS DRIVEN BY MID STREAM S/W PIVOTING THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRI...DRIVING THE SFC COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STRONG FLOW...FORCING...LAST MINUTE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND LATE DAY TIMING SHOULD SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER...ALTHOUGH
A MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE LEAD SRN STREAM S/W...WHICH BRINGS CLOUDS
AND RAIN ACROSS EARLIER IN THE DAY.
A HIGH OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
INITIALLY...BRINGING ABOUT A FAIR...COOL WEEKEND. A REINFORCING
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND SFC FRONT CROSS MON...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...AND THEN EVEN COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BLENDED IN GFS BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRI AND THEN MAINLY WPC FOR
LOWS AND HIGHS BEYOND THAT...MOST CHANGES TO LOWER VALUES BUT NOT BY
MUCH.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIVER VALLEY FOG SHOULD BE COMMON THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA INTO
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z. DRIER AIR IN SOUTHEAST OHIO...BUT THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY STILL CAUSE SOME FOG THERE...BUT OF SHORTER
DURATION.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT FORMING 14Z TO 17Z OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...PLUS THE CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS. HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS REACHING INTO UNI-PKB-CKB-KEN
CORRIDOR 18Z TO 21Z...THEN LINGERING IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL WV 00Z TO
06Z. COULD NOT RULE OUT A MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM. AN ISOLATED CELL
COULD REACH HTS-CRW CORRIDOR 22Z TUESDAY TO 03Z WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS TO BE MOVING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO 00Z TO
06Z WEDNESDAY...WITH 1 THSD FT BKN TO OVC POSSIBLE AND VSBY NEAR
5 MILES IN HAZE. HOW FAR EAST AND SOUTH THAT ADVECTS IS DIFFICULT
TO FIGURE...WITH 925 MB FLOW QUICKLY TURNING TO EAST BEFORE 06Z
WEDNESDAY. THINKING MORE DIURNAL FOG WILL FORM ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER/VALLEY FOG TIMING AND DENSITY MAY VARY
OVERNIGHT. ARRIVAL OF LOWER STRATUS CEILING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND PKB MAY BE FASTER THAN FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 09/30/14
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
153 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE ACROSS BUFFALO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO LAKE ERIE TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. A LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE LAKES PULLING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO UP THE OHIO VALLEY LATER SATURDAY THEN
ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LAKES MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A BAND OF POST FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. THE HRRR IS SHOWING THIS BAND TRYING TO
FALL APART AS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH BEFORE FILLING IN AGAIN TOWARDS MORNING AS THE TROUGH
AXIS PIVOTS AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. STILL THINKING CHANCES ARE PRETTY
GOOD FOR SEEING SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT FOR THE TOLEDO AREA AND
ACROSS NRN AND NE OHIO ON TUESDAY. DURATION COULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF
IN NW OHIO...LASTING FOR A MAYBE A FEW HOURS IN THE EAST BEFORE
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ARRIVES. TWEAKED MINS IN A FEW AREAS
OVERNIGHT...RAISING TEMPERATURES FROM FINDLAY TO SANDUSKY BY A
COUPLE DEGREES WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...BUT
LIKELY AHEAD OF THE RAIN. TWEAKED A FEW OF THE COOLER SPOTS DOWN
IN THE EAST (BJJ/YNG) WHERE TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 50S. ALSO
LOWERED HIGHS ON TUESDAY BY SEVERAL DEGREES IN NW OHIO AS
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER BEHIND THE FRONT UNLESS WE
CAN GET ANY DECENT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. MODEL SOUNDING SUGGEST
THAT WILL BE HARD TO DO WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION
NEAR 900MB.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SE
ACROSS LAKE ERIE TUE MORNING. THE STRONG VORT MAX WITH THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE THE FORCING TO GENERATE A BAND OF SHRA AND
A FEW POSSIBLE TSRA THAT SHOULD MOVE ESE TO NEAR CLE BY 12Z TUE
THEN WORK ACROSS THE EAST INTO TUE AFTERNOON. COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR TUE AFTERNOON THAT
WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHRA GOING IN THE EAST UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. QPF WITH THIS EVENT LOOKS TO RANGE FROM A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN THE SW TO A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN
INCH IN THE NE.
TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS
THEN TEMPS ON TUE WILL BE COOLER ALSO DUE TO THE CLOUDS ALONG WITH
THE SHRA AND COOLER AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER THE SHRA THREAT TUE EVE...CLOUDS SHOULD BE DECREASING SOME
THUS HELPING FOR A COLDER NIGHT WITH LOWS 47 TO 52 FOR MOST OF THE
AREA.
AN ISOLATED SHRA COULD STILL OCCUR IN NW PA WED DUE TO UPPER
TROUGHING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED SOUTH INTO THE AREA
SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL THU NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST LATER WED THRU THU SO TEMPS WILL MODERATE A
LITTLE WARMER ON WED AND MORE SO ON THU. STRONGER STORMS LOOK
POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT ON FRI BUT SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE AREA
THU NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THIS PERIOD TO
COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS.
A FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH A DRY SLOT FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THE MODEL DIFFER ON
THE QPF AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THE ECMWF HAS A CLOSED LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL HAVE A
DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER NE OH
AND NW PA...MORE LAKE INDUCED WITH THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE NEAR 18C. THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTION SEEM BETTER. NONE
THE LESS IT WILL BE COOL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IF NOT A LITTLE MORE.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AS THE ECMWF TRIES TO KEEP THINGS COOL. STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY SLOW THIS MORNING AS A WEAK WAVE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON THE
FRONT. THERE IS CURRENTLY A FAIR AMOUNT OF IFR CEILINGS FOLLOWING
THE FRONT...BUT AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS THE LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON TO REACH
KCAK AND KYNG. CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NW OHIO BUT STRATUS AND IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
LINGER OR REDEVELOP ACROSS NE OH/NW PA TUESDAY EVENING.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SOMEWHAT LIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL LAST THROUGH MID WEEK
BEFORE CONDITIONS CHANGE DRAMATICALLY.
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AS THE
COLD ADVECTION IS VERY WEAK ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SOME
SHOWERS...DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE LAST GOOD DAYS ON THE LAKE
FOR AWHILE.
A THREAT OF MUCH STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON
FRIDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. THE MAIN THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WIND SPEEDS COULD EVEN GET STRONG ENOUGH AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SOME QUESTION HOW
STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GFS MODEL
HAS WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE
MORE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. AT THIS TIME LEANING TOWARD THE
LIGHTER WINDS...AS THE GFS SEEMS TO OVERDO THE WINDS AT TIMES. THE
THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.
SOME QUESTION HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS TRIES TO BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE
LAKE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A TROF AND THAT WOULD
MEAN THE THREAT FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WOULD CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. NONE THE LESS WHICH EVER MODEL IS CORRECT THE LAKE WILL
BE CHOPPY ESPECIALLY EAST OF CLEVELAND LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KEC
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
231 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A LONE SHOWER COULD AFFECT A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE
IN YORK AND ADAMS CO BTWN 04Z-07Z. SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH LVL
CLOUDS OVER EASTERN PA SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY ARND
06Z...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC WAA ALOFT SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE.
CENTRAL PA WILL BE IN BTWN SHORTWAVES TONIGHT...ONE DEPARTING THE
E COAST AND NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS. LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE
BTWN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY FCST OVERNIGHT. MCLEAR SKIES
AND A CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG.
LATEST SREF AND RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST...UNLIKE MANY RECENT NIGHTS...SOME
OF THE FOG COULD AFFECT EVEN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. DWPTS IN THE
50S SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT FOR LATE SEPT...WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE L/M 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW OVR THE GRT LKS WILL DIVE SE ACROSS
PA ON TUESDAY. DECREASING STABILITY UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL HELP SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT
CAPE WILL BE MODEST...BUT FORECAST TOTAL-TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 50
ARE USUALLY A GOOD INDICATOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION.
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF
0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS...BUT AMOUNTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER...0.15
TO 0.25 OF AN INCH...ACROSS THE FAR NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A FEW DEG COOLER AND IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN
ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND.
CLOUDIER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAN RECENT DAYS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROF WED...HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT
MOISTURE-LIMITED AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS ON
WED HOWEVER WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. WARMER WEATHER MAKES
A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO NORMALS.
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN
EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
CLR SKIES/LGT WINDS AGAIN SUPPORTING VALLEY FOG FORMATION ACRS
CENTRAL PA. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN IFR OR BLW AT BFD/IPT/LNS
(PERSISTENCE) FOLLOWED BY AOO/UNV. MDT HAS YET TO REALLY GET INTO
THE FOG OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL CAP VSBY AT 3-5SM.
DEWPT DEPRESSION AT JST SUGGEST FOG IS UNLIKELY ALTHOUGH DID SHOW
SCT015 GROUP TWD DAYBREAK. FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR FOR THE
MORNING HOURS...AHEAD OF COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW AND WEAK COLD
FRONT FCST TO SHIFT SEWD FROM THE GRT LKS ACRS PA LATER TODAY
INTO TNGT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF VCSH/-SHRA MENTION AT
ALL SITES FROM THIS AFTN INTO EARLY TNGT ALONG WITH A GENERAL
LOWERING TREND IN CIGS/VSBYS. ARRIVAL OF COOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH UPPER LOW FAVORABLY TIMED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT
ISOLD-SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT...FOCUSING ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD
FRONT. THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL FAVOR HAIL AS THE PRIMARY TSTM
HAZARD.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WED...UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE NEWD THEREFORE CHC OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ON WED. SOME LOW CIGS PSBL AS WELL.
THU...LOW CIGS LKLY EARLY...AND COULD PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY OR REFORM THU NGT DUE TO HIGH PRES WEDGE/MARITIME FLOW E OF
THE APPLCHNS.
FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LKLY ASSOCD WITH WELL-DEFINED
GUSTY COLD FROPA. LLWS LKLY DUE TO STG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.
SAT...AM SHOWERS ERN AREAS. BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS E OF
THE MTNS DUE TO WLY DOWNSLOPE. ISOLD SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE OVER N/WRN AREAS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1225 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A LONE SHOWER COULD AFFECT A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE
IN YORK AND ADAMS CO BTWN 04Z-07Z. SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH LVL
CLOUDS OVER EASTERN PA SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY ARND
06Z...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC WAA ALOFT SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE.
CENTRAL PA WILL BE IN BTWN SHORTWAVES TONIGHT...ONE DEPARTING THE
E COAST AND NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS. LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE
BTWN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY FCST OVERNIGHT. MCLEAR SKIES
AND A CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG.
LATEST SREF AND RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST...UNLIKE MANY RECENT NIGHTS...SOME
OF THE FOG COULD AFFECT EVEN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. DWPTS IN THE
50S SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT FOR LATE SEPT...WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE L/M 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW OVR THE GRT LKS WILL DIVE SE ACROSS
PA ON TUESDAY. DECREASING STABILITY UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL HELP SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT
CAPE WILL BE MODEST...BUT FORECAST TOTAL-TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 50
ARE USUALLY A GOOD INDICATOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION.
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF
0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS...BUT AMOUNTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER...0.15
TO 0.25 OF AN INCH...ACROSS THE FAR NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A FEW DEG COOLER AND IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN
ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND.
CLOUDIER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAN RECENT DAYS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROF WED...HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT
MOISTURE-LIMITED AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS ON
WED HOWEVER WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. WARMER WEATHER MAKES
A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO NORMALS.
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN
EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG ALREADY FORMING...ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 03Z TAFS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN OVERNIGHT. DID HIT THE FOG
A LITTLE HARDER THAN IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...ESPECIALLY WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS THIS EVENING THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
THERE WAS LITTLE FOG LAST NIGHT...AS MID AND HI CLDS
MOVED IN OVERNIGHT.
PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST ON TUE.
WED...AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE GR LAKES INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BRING SCT RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CIGS PROBABLE AT NIGHT.
OUTLOOK /THU THROUGH SAT/...
THU...LOW CIGS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST PROVIDES AN EAST-SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW.
FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PSBL ASSOC WITH GUSTY FROPA.
SAT...BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE OVER NWRN AREAS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
437 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...
/Today and Tonight/
A compact upper low embedded within a broader western CONUS
trough, will lift northeast across the Dakotas today. Westerly
flow aloft within the base of the upper trough will induce a
weak surface trough in the lee of the Rockies today, with the
trough axis extending south across West Texas. Isolated to
scattered convection is expected to develop along and east of
this feature late this afternoon and evening. Some of this activity
may reach far western sections by early evening, with the most
favored area across the western Big Country counties generally west
of a Throckmorton to Sweetwater line. Kept 20 POPs going across this
area this evening and overnight.
Convection should be more isolated farther south, but could move
into far western portions of the Concho Valley and Crockett county
by early evening. It is interesting to note that the RUC and some
of the high resolution models develop convection farther east across
the Big Country and Concho valley during peak heating. While this
can`t be ruled out entirely, due to minimal CAP and a convective
temperature around 90 degrees, the lack of any surface feature will
preclude mentioning POPs at this time. The thermal ridge will be a
bit stronger and farther east today, which will result in afternoon
highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Lows tonight will be
mainly in the upper 60s.
.LONG TERM...
/Wednesday through Monday/
The main concern in the extended forecast is the potential for
showers and thunderstorms in association with a cold front, followed
by cooler temperatures. Highs on Wednesday will be above seasonal
normals, generally in the lower to mid 90s. The NAM is indicating
some convergence along a surface trough, mainly across the western
Big Country, during the late afternoon/evening hours Wednesday,
resulting in isolated showers and thunderstorms. Slight chance PoPs
were included across the western Big Country for this time frame.
An upper level trough will move across The Rockies Wednesday, then
across the Plains Thursday. This will send a cold front through West
Central Texas during the day Thursday, clearing the area by early
evening. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible along the front, mainly across the southern and eastern
half of the area, where better moisture will reside. Only minor
tweaks were made to the current PoPs, with the best chance across
the Northwest Hill Country. Cooler, near seasonal, temperatures are
forecast behind the front on Friday and Saturday, with highs in the
low to mid 80s, and overnight lows in the 50s to near 60. A slow
warm up will ensue Sunday through early next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 89 69 91 71 87 / 10 10 10 20 20
San Angelo 91 69 92 72 88 / 5 10 5 10 20
Junction 88 67 91 73 90 / 0 5 5 10 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
24/Daniels
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
356 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...
A MOISTURE PLUME WAS PULLING UP INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS REGION
THIS MORNING FROM THE TROPICAL NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN...WHILE AN
UPPER LOW WAS SPINNING OFF INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A TRAILING
IMPULSE EJECTING THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO MAY BE IN TANDEM WITH
A WEAKER IMPULSE CROSSING THE MOIST PLUME OVER WEST TEXAS. ISOLATED
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WERE CROSSING THE SOUTH PLAINS...HEADING INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT LIFT IS
DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY IN THIS PATTERN...WE EXPECT TO REMAIN WITHIN
THE MOIST PLUME THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SUBJECT TO AT LEAST WEAK
FORCING FROM THE TRAILING SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. MAJORITY
OF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BREAK THUNDERSTORMS OUT NEAR OR JUST EAST
OF THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE CONVERGENCE TIGHTENS A DRYLINE WITH POTENTIAL
SURFACE DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE LOWER OR EVEN MIDDLE 60S LYING JUST
TO THE EAST. STILL SOME CONCERN OVER POSSIBLE ERRORS IN MODEL
DEPICTION OF SURFACE DEWPOINT STRUCTURE...BUT OVERNIGHT TRENDS IN
WRF/NAM AND RAP SEEM TO GIVE SOME CREDENCE TO THE HIGHER MOISTURE
LEVELS. AND THIS WOULD GENERATE CONVECTIVE ENERGY UP TO 2500 JOULES
PER KILOGRAM WITH MODEST SHEAR OF 25-30 KNOTS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW HEFTY STORMS IN THIS AREA LATER TODAY. WE HAVE EDGED
PREVIOUS THUNDER CHANCES SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST FOR
LATER TODAY WHILE RETAINING BULK OF PREVIOUS FORECAST. WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON....FAVORED A CONSALL/
CONSRAW ENSEMBLE APPROACH A NOTCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
RMCQUEEN
&&
.LONG TERM...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD DOMINATES THE WEATHER
PATTERN.
A COLD FRONT/RETREATING DRYLINE MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH IS POSITIVELY TILTED AS
IT BARRELS OUT ONTO THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY. FURTHERMORE...THE
TIMING OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS NOT GREAT. A BULK OF THE LARGE SCALE
LIFT WILL NOT SPREAD OVER THE AREA UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. WE WILL
STILL SEE A GOOD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS UNTIL THIS POINT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HANG ON TO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EAST
OF THE DRYLINE. BUT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER THAN TODAY.
THE COLD FRONT FROM THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUNCH THROUGH ON
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WILL NOT PLOW
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON LEAVING POSSIBLE STORM CHANCES IN THIS AREA. AFTER THE
COLD FRONT AND TROUGH ON THURSDAY...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ENTER
THE REGION WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN US. A WEAK SHORT WAVE ON
SUNDAY WILL HAVE LITTLE CONSEQUENCE ON ANY WEATHER IMPACTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL IN THE MORNING WITH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS THE COOLEST DIPPING DOWN INTO THE 40S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 80 54 83 52 71 / 10 0 0 0 0
TULIA 83 57 86 55 73 / 10 20 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 83 58 86 55 73 / 20 20 10 10 10
LEVELLAND 84 59 86 56 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 84 60 87 56 75 / 20 20 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 85 60 87 57 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 85 59 88 57 77 / 20 10 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 88 64 93 58 78 / 20 30 20 20 10
SPUR 86 62 91 64 81 / 20 30 10 20 10
ASPERMONT 89 67 93 69 85 / 20 20 20 20 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
332 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LATEST SATELLITE AND
WATER VAPOR OBSERVATIONS SHOW RIDGE MIGRATING EASTWARD AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY.
THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH THE HIGH PRESSURE EAST AND DEEPENS THE LEE
SIDE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS EXTENDING INTO THE CWA GRADUALLY
INCREASING WINDS BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
SOUTHERN HIDALGO COUNTY AND UNDERNEATH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DEPICTED OVER THE AREA WITH 00Z KBRO SOUNDING SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE
CONCENTRATED UP TO 800 MB. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ONLY REACH 1.72
INCHES AND THAT IS DUE TO THE DRY MID LEVEL AIR MOVING IN WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS OF 8Z...RADAR SHOWS SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT FAVORING NORTHERN KENEDY COUNTY AND EASTERN HIDALGO AND
CAMERON AND IT IS MAINLY RAP RAP AROUND THE WEAK LOW/MCV. THE CONVECTION
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND MOVE INTO
BROOKS COUNTY BY MID DAY AS THE WEAK LOW MOVES FURTHER INLAND BEFORE
IT GETS TAKEN BY THE MID TO UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND THE GULF WATERS LATE
TODAY INTO WED. LEFT INHERITED 10 PERCENT AS AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE MOST PART
TODAY WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOW CIGS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND CLOSE TO 90S ALONG
THE RIVER OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES. TONIGHT THE DRY AIR WILL LOWER
THE CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA SO LEAN TOWARDS 10 POPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AS THE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIGS SOUTH WEDNESDAY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS A BIT RETURNING SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS
THE CWA ALLOWING FOR THAT WEAK LOW TO DISSIPATE. SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WITH MORE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
EXPECTED. LOW CHANCE OF RAIN AND LOW AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS TO RETURN TO THE 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS IN
THE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION ALONG THE COAST. LOW CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
REMAIN OVER THE GULF WATERS AS DRY AIR GRADUALLY DIMINISHES ANY
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA. TODAY DUE TO THE LIGHT TO
VARIABLE WINDS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE LINGERING AROUND THE
AREA WILL ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG TO
DEVELOP. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE WITH DAY TIME HEATING IN THE
MORNING HOUR.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...500MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. THURSDAY BRINGING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS THURS AFTERNOON. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRI AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE RGV FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST MEXICO AND
STALLS AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL ACROSS NORTHERN TAMAULIAPAS.
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO SOUTH TX
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS EAST TX
SATURDAY MOVES EASTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE AS THE WEAK LOW KEEPS SPINNING OVER THE AREA
PRODUCING ERRATIC WINDS BETWEEN 10 T 15 KNOTS. THIS LOW IS HELPING
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AT THIS TIME AND DO EXPECT THE SAME PATTERN
TO CONTINUE TODAY AND IMPROVE WEDNESDAY. THE SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SCA BUT A SCEC IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRI
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
FROM THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 85 77 87 80 / 20 10 10 10
BROWNSVILLE 87 76 89 79 / 20 10 10 10
HARLINGEN 88 75 90 79 / 20 10 10 10
MCALLEN 89 76 92 79 / 20 10 10 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 90 75 93 78 / 20 10 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 79 85 81 / 20 10 10 20
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
67/61
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LATEST SATELLITE AND
WATER VAPOR OBSERVATIONS SHOW RIDGE MIGRATING EASTWARD AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY.
THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH THE HIGH PRESSURE EAST AND DEEPENS THE LEE
SIDE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS EXTENDING INTO THE CWA GRADUALLY
INCREASING WINDS BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
SOUTHERN HIDALGO COUNTY AND UNDERNEATH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DEPICTED OVER THE AREA WITH 00Z KBRO SOUNDING SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE
CONCENTRATED UP TO 800 MB. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ONLY REACH 1.72
INCHES AND THAT IS DUE TO THE DRY MID LEVEL AIR MOVING IN WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS OF 8Z...RADAR SHOWS SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT FAVORING NORTHERN KENEDY COUNTY AND EASTERN HIDALGO AND
CAMERON AND IT IS MAINLY RAP RAP AROUND THE WEAK LOW/MCV. THE CONVECTION
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND MOVE INTO
BROOKS COUNTY BY MID DAY AS THE WEAK LOW MOVES FURTHER INLAND BEFORE
IT GETS TAKEN BY THE MID TO UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND THE GULF WATERS LATE
TODAY INTO WED. LEFT INHERITED 10 PERCENT AS AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE MOST PART
TODAY WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOW CIGS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND CLOSE TO 90S ALONG
THE RIVER OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES. TONIGHT THE DRY AIR WILL LOWER
THE CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA SO LEAN TOWARDS 10 POPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AS THE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIGS SOUTH WEDNESDAY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS A BIT RETURNING SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS
THE CWA WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
WITH MORE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED. LOW CHANCE OF RAIN AND LOW
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS TO RETURN TO THE 90S
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS IN THE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION ALONG THE COAST.
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF WATERS AS DRY AIR COMPLETELY
DIMINISHES THE POTENTIAL AND THE WEAK LOW IS NO LONGER IN PLACE TO
PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN. TODAY
DUE TO THE LOW TO VARIABLE WIND AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS
RAIN LINGERING AROUND THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
PATCHY GROUND FOG.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...500MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. THURSDAY BRINGING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS THURS AFTERNOON. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRI AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE RGV FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST MEXICO AND
STALLS AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL ACROSS NORTHERN TAMAULIAPAS.
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO SOUTH TX
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS EAST TX
SATURDAY MOVES EASTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE AS THE WEAK LOW KEEPS SPINNING OVER THE AREA
PRODUCING ERRATIC WINDS BETWEEN 10 T 15 KNOTS. THIS LOW IS HELPING
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AT THIS TIME AND DO EXPECT THE SAME PATTERN
TO CONTINUE TODAY AND IMPROVE WEDNESDAY. THE SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SCA BUT A SCEC IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRI
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
FROM THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 85 77 87 80 / 20 10 10 10
BROWNSVILLE 87 76 89 79 / 20 10 10 10
HARLINGEN 88 75 90 79 / 20 10 10 10
MCALLEN 89 76 92 79 / 20 10 10 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 90 75 93 78 / 20 10 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 79 85 81 / 20 10 10 20
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
67/61
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
349 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE STATE TODAY THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT
BETWEEN DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
ANOTHER LIFTING ALMOST DUE NORTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS FROM WRN
NEBRASKA.
CLOUD COVER THE BIG PROBLEM TODAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION TRAPPING
MOISTURE UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. NAM KEEPS CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF A DELLS...MADISON TO JANESVILLE
LINE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT MID-MORNING TO THE
WEST. GFS KEEPS EASTERN THIRD UNDER THE CLOUDS...WITH HRRR HOLDING
LOW CLOUDS JUST ALONG THE LAKE AFTER 17Z. WILL TREND CLOUDS WITH A
BLEND...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION EASES LATER THIS MORNING WITH A SLIGHT
UPWARD TREND IN 925 MB TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.
MARGINAL 850 MB/LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL DEVELOPING SOME
SPRINKLES ALONG THE LAKE FROM SRN MILWAUKEE COUNTY SOUTH ON MKE TDWR
BUT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH AS 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE LATER THIS
MORNING.
CLOUDS AND COOLEST 925 MB TEMPS KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
NORTHEAST...RISING TO THE LOWER 60S SW WITH THE PROSPECT OF SOME
SUNSHINE.
.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
MODELS KEEP 700 MB OMEGA ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER WITH BETTER
FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AS FORECAST AREA
REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH. WILL NOT BRING
POPS INTO CWA THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND EXPECTED
REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S
EAST...WITH A BIT MORE MIXING AND WARMER 925 MB TEMPS HOLDING LOWS
IN THE MID 40S WEST.
.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
FLOW WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE U.S.. AN AMPLE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE WILL BE TAPPED FOR THIS SYSTEM. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES UP TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WHICH IS VERY HIGH FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
THE FIRST WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN WI ON
WED...BUT LESS CONFIDENCE ABOUT ENOUGH FORCING OR MOISTURE WITH THIS
INITIAL ROUND TO ALLOW FOR PRECIP. THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL ARRIVE THU
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE FORCING AND STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
CAPE SHOULD BE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND ALLOW FOR THUNDER. THE NAM
SUGGESTS A BREEZY DAY ON THU GIVEN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...
WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE MORE RESERVED. I LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER
WINDS GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH SUN
WILL PEEK THROUGH WHILE SOUTHERN WI IS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THU
AFTERNOON OR IF THE RAIN WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER. THERE IS FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THU
EVENING...SO I KEPT TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX IS
EXPECTED TO BARREL THROUGH SOUTHERN WI FRI MORNING. THEN THE UPPER
TROUGH COULD HANG AROUND THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
IT IS LOOKING LIKE A COOL AND CLOUDY WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING. QUESTION
THEN IS WHEN/IF DECK SCATTERS OUT/LIFTS TO VFR. ALL GUIDANCE IS TOO
LOW WITH CURRENT STRATUS DECK BUT LEANING TOWARD MORE OPTIMISTIC
GFS/HRRR WHICH WILL SCATTER OUT AT KMSN AROUND 16Z-17Z...AND EASTERN
TAF SITES IN THE MID-AFTERNOON WHERE MOISTURE OFF THE LAKE WILL SLOW
IMPROVEMENT. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH HIGH NOSING DOWN INTO REGION. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG POTENTIAL EAST AS ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS
LAKE MOISTURE INLAND.
&&
.MARINE... CURRENT END TIME FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD AS
WINDS ARE SLOWLY LOWERING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO EASE AS HIGH
NOSES INTO REGION. WAVES SHOULD BE 4 FEET OR LESS BY 18Z.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1156 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
IT WAS AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
AS A INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN COLORADO. A COLD FRONT SWEEPING OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW
INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG
WINDS ALOFT PRODUCED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED WITH
A TSTORM SOUTH OF ALLIANCE EARLIER THIS EVENING. WITH THE SQUALL
LINE EAST OF OUR PANHANDLE COUNTIES...THE TORNADO WATCH WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM. ISOLATED TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...WITH SOME HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS FOR
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN ATOP ONE TO THREE INCHES
THAT FELL LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...
STRONG WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
700MB WINDS PEAK AROUND 65 KT BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND RAWLINS AND
THE COLORADO BORDER AND WHEATLAND. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH NOON TUESDAY. FINALLY...
ENOUGH COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TO LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO
8500 FT OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. UPDATED ZONES
ALREADY SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
CONVECTIVE LINE WAS ALREADY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON EXTENDING
FROM ROCK RIVER SSE TOWARDS THE DENVER METRO AREA. ATMOSPHERIC
DESTABILIZATION ALBEIT WEAK HAS BEEN UNDERWAY BEHIND THE MORNING
CONVECTION AND AHEAD OF THIS SECONDARY CONVECTIVE LINE. ALTHOUGH
LINGERING CLOUD COVER HAS INHIBITED IT SOME. 21Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACED
THE 1003MB LOW SOUTH OF PUEBLO WITH PRESSURE FALLS TO THE NORTH
ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR TOWARDS DENVER. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED
1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE NOSING INTO THE SRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS A BAND
OF 40-50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPROACHED FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT SATELLITE PIX SHOWED WAS LIFTING
NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT INTO
COLORADO BY 6 PM BEFORE CLOSING OFF NR THE WY/NE STATE LINE BY
MIDNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW NOW LOCATED NR PUEBLO WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AND DEEPEN TO
993MB BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES SO...LLVL SOUTHEAST FLOW
COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL SPEED MAX TO DRAW A
FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE EARLY THIS
EVENING. LATEST HRRR HAS DONE WELL WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION SO FAR
AND SUGGESTS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BE GREATEST WHILE STORM MODES
ARE DISCRETE...WITH EVEN A FEW ROTATING UPDRAFTS CONTAINING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE. THIS
WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE FROM EASTERN LARAMIE COUNTY EAST TO
SIDNEY. BY EARLY/MID-EVENING SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY
AS CONVECTION BECOMES A MORE HOMOGENEOUS AREA OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MANY OF
THESE AREAS OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE RECEIVED 1-2 INCHES THIS
MORNING AND WITH ANOTHER AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES ON ITS WAY OVERNIGHT.
THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WARRANTED TONIGHT. THE OTHER CONCERN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE AREA IS ITS IMPACT ON WINDS. SW/NE ORIENTED GRADIENTS
TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT CONTINUING THRU TUESDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL EVENT...THIS PUTS THE WIND PRONE AREAS
IN SE WYOMING UNDER THE GUN. EVEN THOUGH KCAG-KCPR GRADIENTS ARE A
BIT MARGINAL...H7 PROGS CONTINUE TO POINT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HIGH WIND SET-UP EARLY TUESDAY. WILL KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING
GOING AS INHERITED.
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE FOR A TIME NR THE PINE RIDGE
TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST BY MIDDAY. FLOW
WILL WESTERLY FOR TUESDAY...BUT THE CWFA WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY
THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE ROCKIES. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LESS.
THE NEXT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST THRU THE
CWFA FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVR THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS AND PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ON
TUESDAY...BACK INTO THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN
INTO THE 50S ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
PRETTY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IN PLACE. SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN
MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY ON THURS. NO PRECIP IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THURS WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND 0C. A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON FRI AND THEN CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH 700MB TEMPS RISING TO 5-10C. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT
IS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON THURS THROUGH SUN...IT WILL STILL BE
BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY WITH
GOOD MIXING IN PLACE. EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25-30
KT ON MOST AFTNS. PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE VERY
LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERAL RIDGING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A LACK OF MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH
TONIGHT. EXPECT PREVAILING IFR VIS IN THE RAIN. CDR WILL ALSO ALSO
SEE SOME LIFR CIGS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF AFTER 03Z OVER SOUTHEAST WY AND AFTER 06Z IN THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY AND GUSTY. GUSTS TO 30-35
KT WILL BE COMMON THROUGH TUES AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS INTO THE DISTRICTS THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
BRING WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS TO A LARGE PART OF THE
DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SOME AREAS IN THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE PICKED UP 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN THIS
MORNING AND ARE IN LINE FOR ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES...PERHAPS LOCALLY
HIGHER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH NOON TUESDAY. WIND
PRONE AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL BECOME VERY WINDY LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN
EFFECT. THE COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE LIGHTER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TUESDAY FOR WYZ106-110-116-117.
NE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NEZ002-003-019>021-054-
055-095-096.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
405 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
DEEP UPPER AIR CYCLONE CENTERED OVER EXTREME NWRN NEBRASKA AT
THIS HOUR WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACRS
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND THEN UP OVER MANITOBA LATER TODAY.
STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS DEPARTING LOW
PRES SYSTEM WAS NOW OVER COLORADO. NAM AND RAP QG VERT VELOCITY
FIELDS AND ON H2O VAPOR SAT IMAGERY NICELY REVEAL THIS SINKING.
STABILIZATION OF THE MTN TOP LAYER PAST FEW HOURS HAS PRODUCE A
STANDING MTN WAVE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...RESULTING IN GUSTY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FRONT RANGE. NAM
AND RAP CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE CROSS BARRIER WINDS IN THE
45-55KT RANGE BY AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...THEN ONLY SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AT 15Z. WIND SENSORS ATOP THE HIGH RIDGES WERE ALREADY
INDICATING GUSTS IN THE 45-55 MPH RANGE. COULD SEE SOME OF THIS
MOMENTUM SPREADING TO LOWER EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DO NOT SEE WINDS REACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME. FURTHERMORE...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THESE STRONG WINDS
WILL SPREAD OUT ONTO THE NEARBY THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA COULD SEE W-NWLY WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOMENTUM MIXING DOWN
FROM ALOFT.
CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS EAST OF THE MTNS LATER TODAY. CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALSO
RETURN TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE RACING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. QG VV REVERSE
AND GO POSITIVE THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS NEXT WAVE OF MOISTURE AND
ENERGY NEARS. COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS
IN THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS BY MID- TO LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL
WILL HOOVER AROUND 11 THSND FT TODAY...AND DROP TO AROUND 9500 FT
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
BY EVENING SKIES SHOULD ALSO FILL WITH CLOUDS EAST OF THE MTNS AS
THIS WEAK PERTABATION PASSES BY...THEN PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
WITH ITS DEPARTURE. PCPN IS NOT ANTICIPATED THRU 12Z/WED EAST OF
THE MTNS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH INCREASING
NORTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. QG FIELDS SHOWING INCREASING ASCENT
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...PEAKING OVER THE FRONT RANGE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND FURTHER EAST ON THE PLAINS DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON TIMING WITH THIS TROF. GIVEN
THE FRONT AND FORCING ALOFT WILL BUMP POPS UP FURTHER TO LIKELY
OVER MOST SECTIONS DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
TROF IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE SO SHOWERS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIP DURATION WILL BE IN THE 3-6
HOUR RANGE. THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE MOUNTAINS.
FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THERE WILL BE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND
AS COLORADO WILL BE UNDER A MODERATE...NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT DENVER AREA TERMINAL AND GATES
THROUGH 12Z/WED. ALTHOUGH CEILINGS MAY LOWER BELOW 10 THSND FT
AGL AFTER 22Z TODAY AND POSSIBLY LOWER TO AROUND 8 THSND FT AGL
EARLY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE PASSES BY. AT
THIS TIME...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT
DRAINAGE WINDS OF 5-12KTS AT DIA AND APA THROUGH MID-
MORNING...THEN A GRADUAL CLOCKWISE SHIFT TO WLY WINDS OF 7-14KTS
BY MIDDAY WHERE THEY SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
BEFORE RESUMING A TYPICAL DRAINAGE PATTERN. ON THE OTHER HAND
...WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-25KT CAN BE EXPECTED AT BJC NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN 7-13 NWLY WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN S-SWLY WINDS OF 4-8KTS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1104 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
332 AM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS
TODAY...AND THEN INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
COLD FRONT NOW SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW STRATUS
HAS MOVED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WHILE TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL
INTO THE 40S AND 50S UNDER A STEADY NORTHEAST WIND. WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS NOW EAST OF THE CWA EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY BUT WITH
THIS STRATUS LIKELY HANGING AROUND FOR SOME TIME THIS MORNING.
GUIDANCE APPEARING TO BE TOO QUICK SCATTERING OUT THESE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING AND TRYING TO INDICATE THERE WILL BE HOLES BY 12Z.
WITH THIS NOT A LIKELY SCENARIO HAVE GONE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH
TRENDS THIS MORNING AND DONT HAVE ANY REAL CLEARING UNTIL LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY OBSERVE A SCATTERING TREND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH AREAS NEAR THE LAKE HOLDING ONTO
THESE CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. DID LOWER HIGH TEMPS AS WELL AS
SLOWED TEMP TREND THIS MORNING...WITH IT POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS IN
FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA NOT MAKING IT OUT OF
THE 50S TODAY.
QUIET BUT COOL NIGHT TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS AND ANY
LINGERING CLOUD COVER COMING OFF THE LAKE PUSHES NORTH INTO
WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING...AND MOST LOCATIONS OBSERVING CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FAIRLY ENERGETIC VORT MAX CURRENTLY
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE NORTH INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE BRIEF TONIGHT AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EAST AND WE QUICKLY TRANSITION TOWARDS A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF WAA GOING INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MADE
MINIMAL CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AS
UNCERTAINTY WITH APPROACHING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD PLAY
INTO THE EXTENT OF WARMING THAT OCCURS.
THE BEST WAA/MOIST ADVECTION WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE WEST FOR MOST
OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT THIS WILL CHANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND
STRENGTHENING LLJ BECOMES ORIENTED TOWARDS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS
COINCIDING WITH FAIRLY ENERGETIC MID LEVEL FLOW...DEVELOPING
PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD BEGIN REACHING MOST LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AFTER THE MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME. DESPITE INCREASING
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INSTABILITY AXIS DOES APPEAR TO STAY
JUST TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH
THIS MAY BE THE CASE...STRENGTHENING LLJ COULD OFFSET ANY LACKING
INSTABILITY AND SO HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER WORDING OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA...WITH THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AREAS LIKELY
OBSERVING BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME AND DO FEEL THERE COULD BE SOME PERIODS
OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL...BUT THIS WONT LIKELY OCCUR UNTIL VERY
LATE IN THE NIGHT AND TOWARDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
BETTER AGREEMENT OBSERVED WITH VARYING MODELS THIS MORNING
REGARDING APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FEATURE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW SHOULD
LIFT RIGHT ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AREA INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN THURSDAY AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. CONTINUED LARGE SCALE SUPPORT DURING THIS PERIOD WILL ALLOW
FOR A WET DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. A SLOWER DEPARTING TREND WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND DID KEEP LIKELY WORDING LONGER INTO THE
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
DURING THIS TIME...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. SO AT THIS TIME...AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED
WITH ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT AM MORE CONCERNED WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY AS THE BEST
OVERALL MOIST ADVECTION OCCURS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* PERIODIC LAKE EFFECT SPRINKLES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
* MVFR CIGS THROUGH REST OF TODAY.
* N TO NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT TODAY.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LARGE AREA OF 1000-1500 FT CIGS IS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF LAKE EFFECT LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE OFFSHORE OF KMKE SOUTHWARD TO ORD/MDW. THIS IS
PRODUCING IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBY. WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS
BAND HAVE TURNED NNW WITH NNE WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE BAND.
EXPECT THIS BAND TO SLOWLY PIVOT EASTWARD INTO MID MORNING BUT IN
THE MEANTIME ORD/MDW WILL LIKELY BE IN AND OUT OF IFR CIGS AND
MVFR VSBY IN DRIZZLE. ONCE THE BAND SHIFTS EAST OR EVEN DISSIPATES
WINDS SHOULD TURN NNE THEN FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 10 KT.
ONCE THE IFR IMPROVES MVFR WILL PERSIST BUT SHOULD SEE SCATTERING
TOWARDS RFD/DPA THIS AFTERNOON WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKE LIKELY
KEEPING MVFR CIGS AT ORD/MDW/GYY THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH
SCATTERING IS POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY
THIS EVENING WHICH WILL PUSH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTHWEST. THERE MAY BE SOME EXPANSION OF
COVERAGE AS THIS OCCURS SO RFD/DPA MAY GET BACK INTO MVFR BUT WILL
KEEP COVERAGE SCATTERED FOR NOW. DO NOT HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CIG EVOLUTION TONIGHT AND MAY BE HOLDING
ONTO THEM TOO LONG. SKIES DO LOOK TO HAVE SCATTERED OR LESS
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SLOWLY RISING MVFR CIGS REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG THEY MAY LAST.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT SPEEDS
WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
SOUTHEAST WINDS.
THURSDAY...TSRA AND MVFR LIKELY. SOUTH WINDS.
FRIDAY...LOW CHANCE SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY. GUSTY WEST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
257 AM CDT
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN SPEED INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TRACKS
NORTH TO MANITOBA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STEADY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WHEN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN VERY
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LOW TRACKING NORTHWEST OF THE LAKE AND
DEEPENING WHILE DOING SO. WHILE SPECIFICS ARE STILL UNDETERMINED
THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE
LAKE...STARTING OUT SOUTHERLY THEN TURNING WESTERLY AS A COLD
FRONT PASSES THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL OTHER MORE SUBTLE SURFACE
TROUGHS MAY CROSS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN WEST AND NORTHWEST. A PERIOD OF GALES STILL LOOKS
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN FRONT AS COLDER
AIR SPREADS IN. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE GOING INTO SUNDAY.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1040 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
Updated the forecast earlier this morning to have patchy fog into
midday along and south of a Quincy to Jacksonville to Taylorville
to Robinson line and locally dense this morning from Jacksonville
sw. Also adjusted cloud cover and highs today, with low clouds
getting into southeast IL as they slowly drift south toward
highway 50 from Flora to Olney to Lawrenceville. Cloud bases of
500-1500 ft and even less than 500 feet in southern counties where
fog is present. Pilot reports show cloud deck about 1-2k ft thick
and starting to break up in ne counties late this morning where
drier air has worked in on ne winds as dewpoints slipped into
upper 40s and lower 50s. Low clouds should continue to break up from
the ne and sw with skies becoming partly to mostly sunny during
the afternoon. Temps currently 55-60F except low to mid 60s se of
I-70 and Mount Carmel airport up to 72F and still enjoying sunny
skies. The cold front has pushed just south of CWA with ne winds
6-12 mph and low clouds blanketing much of CWA. Cold front to
weaken as it pushes into southern IL this afternoon/evening and
low clouds to decrease during the afternoon. Highs mostly in the
low to mid 70s over central IL, but to range from 65-70F from I-74
northeast, to the lower 80s along and south of highway 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
Short-term forecast concerns include potential for dense fog across
the southern KILX CWA, as well as, approaching deck of low clouds
across the north. Clear skies/light winds have once again led to
the development of fog early this morning, particularly from the Saint
Louis area eastward across southern Illinois. HRRR shows fog
becoming dense across this area over the next few hours before
dissipating after 8am. So far the fog has not become widespread or
dense, but based on forecast soundings and the HRRR, have included
patchy dense fog south of I-70. Have also issued a Special Weather
Statement to highlight the low visbys.
07z/2am surface analysis shows cold front settling southward into
central Illinois, with a widespread area of low clouds noted to the
north of the boundary across the Great Lakes into north-central
Illinois. Latest IR satellite imagery shows leading edge of clouds
along the I-74 corridor. Main questions today will be how far south
these clouds will push and whether or not they will clear out this
afternoon. Satellite timing tools suggest the clouds will reach a
Rushville to Mattoon line by daybreak, but additional southward
progress appears unlikely as frontal boundary stalls. Will
therefore go with a cloudy forecast across the northern two-thirds
of the CWA this morning, with mostly sunny skies across the far
south. Despite continued northeasterly flow behind the front,
forecast soundings indicate a gradual dissipation of low-level
moisture as the day progresses. Have gone with decreasing clouds
through the afternoon accordingly. Due to the cloud cover and shift
in wind direction, temps will be quite a bit cooler today than in
recent days, with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 60s
along/north of I-74 to around 80 far south.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
Winds will veer to the southeast on Wednesday in response to an
approaching upper wave and its associated cold front. As a result,
temperatures will rise back into the upper 70s and lower 80s. As a
deep upper trough slowly approaches from the west, surface low
pressure is expected to develop over the Southern Plains on
Wednesday then lift northward into the Great Lakes by Thursday
night. Warm-advection showers/thunder will develop ahead of this
system Wednesday night: however, all model guidance keeps any precip
focused mainly across the western half of the CWA. Given this
slowing trend, have removed PoPs for all locations along/east of a
Paris to Effingham line. Further west, will go with likely PoPs
across the Illinois River Valley after midnight. As surface low
deepens and tracks just west of the area on Thursday, strong S/SW
flow will provide one more very warm day with highs in the upper
70s/lower 80s. Showers and thunderstorms will develop in advance of
a slowly approaching cold front, mainly focused across the west.
With strong upper dynamics in place and increasing amounts of
moisture flowing northward from the Gulf of Mexico, a few strong to
severe thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon across
west-central Illinois. Once low lifts into the Great Lakes, front
will get a solid push eastward by Thursday evening. Will go with
categorical PoPs across the board as the boundary interacts with a
moist and moderately unstable environment.
Cold front will push into Indiana by early Friday morning, with
perhaps a few lingering showers across the Wabash River Valley.
Main weather story late in the week will be the sharply cooler
conditions. 850mb temps are progged to drop into the 0 to -2C range
by Saturday morning, supporting daytime highs only in the lower
to middle 60s and overnight lows in the lower 40s this weekend.
Airmass will slowly moderate by early next week, with temperatures
climbing back to around 70 by Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
The cold front has pushed south of all TAF sites, with northeast
winds around 10-14kt in its wake. A short period of LIFR
fog and ceilings have developed along the leading edge of the
clouds at SPI and DEC with 200FT ceilings and 1/2sm FG. Behind the
front, IFR conditions with ceilings of 400-800 ft and p6sm vis have
developed within 2 hours of FROPA.
Based on the latest observation trends, ceilings should improve
to the MVFR by late morning. The main concern is how soon the
clouds will erode to VFR, with all the low level moisture trapped
under a developing subsidence inversion. Latest guidance off the
NAM-WRF and HRRR continues to suggest we will see some breaks
develop by late morning or early afternoon. Will continue with
the previous trends in the TAFs in scattering out the lower cigs
by afternoon with some broken VFR cigs into the late afternoon
hours. Southern TAFS of DEC and SPI should see VFR the soonest,
and possibly as early as 11 am or Noon.
The gusty northeast winds immediately behind the front will
settle out in the 8 to 14 kt range for much of the day. Mixing
heights will be limited by the low ceiling heights, so gusts
should not get to 20kt at any point.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
839 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
332 AM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS
TODAY...AND THEN INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
COLD FRONT NOW SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW STRATUS
HAS MOVED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WHILE TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL
INTO THE 40S AND 50S UNDER A STEADY NORTHEAST WIND. WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS NOW EAST OF THE CWA EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY BUT WITH
THIS STRATUS LIKELY HANGING AROUND FOR SOME TIME THIS MORNING.
GUIDANCE APPEARING TO BE TOO QUICK SCATTERING OUT THESE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING AND TRYING TO INDICATE THERE WILL BE HOLES BY 12Z.
WITH THIS NOT A LIKELY SCENARIO HAVE GONE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH
TRENDS THIS MORNING AND DONT HAVE ANY REAL CLEARING UNTIL LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY OBSERVE A SCATTERING TREND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH AREAS NEAR THE LAKE HOLDING ONTO
THESE CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. DID LOWER HIGH TEMPS AS WELL AS
SLOWED TEMP TREND THIS MORNING...WITH IT POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS IN
FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA NOT MAKING IT OUT OF
THE 50S TODAY.
QUIET BUT COOL NIGHT TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS AND ANY
LINGERING CLOUD COVER COMING OFF THE LAKE PUSHES NORTH INTO
WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING...AND MOST LOCATIONS OBSERVING CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FAIRLY ENERGETIC VORT MAX CURRENTLY
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE NORTH INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE BRIEF TONIGHT AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EAST AND WE QUICKLY TRANSITION TOWARDS A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF WAA GOING INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MADE
MINIMAL CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AS
UNCERTAINTY WITH APPROACHING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD PLAY
INTO THE EXTENT OF WARMING THAT OCCURS.
THE BEST WAA/MOIST ADVECTION WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE WEST FOR MOST
OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT THIS WILL CHANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND
STRENGTHENING LLJ BECOMES ORIENTED TOWARDS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS
COINCIDING WITH FAIRLY ENERGETIC MID LEVEL FLOW...DEVELOPING
PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD BEGIN REACHING MOST LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AFTER THE MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME. DESPITE INCREASING
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INSTABILITY AXIS DOES APPEAR TO STAY
JUST TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH
THIS MAY BE THE CASE...STRENGTHENING LLJ COULD OFFSET ANY LACKING
INSTABILITY AND SO HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER WORDING OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA...WITH THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AREAS LIKELY
OBSERVING BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME AND DO FEEL THERE COULD BE SOME PERIODS
OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL...BUT THIS WONT LIKELY OCCUR UNTIL VERY
LATE IN THE NIGHT AND TOWARDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
BETTER AGREEMENT OBSERVED WITH VARYING MODELS THIS MORNING
REGARDING APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FEATURE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW SHOULD
LIFT RIGHT ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AREA INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN THURSDAY AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. CONTINUED LARGE SCALE SUPPORT DURING THIS PERIOD WILL ALLOW
FOR A WET DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. A SLOWER DEPARTING TREND WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND DID KEEP LIKELY WORDING LONGER INTO THE
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
DURING THIS TIME...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. SO AT THIS TIME...AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED
WITH ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT AM MORE CONCERNED WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY AS THE BEST
OVERALL MOIST ADVECTION OCCURS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* PERIODIC IFR CIGS IN LAKE EFFECT CLOUD/DRIZZLE BAND FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.
* CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT
REMAINING MVFR...POSSIBLY THROUGH THE EVENING. PERIOD OF
SCATTERING POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
* N WINDS WITH LAKE EFFECT BAND NEXT FEW HOURS BUT SHIFT TO NNE
EXPECTED BY MID/LATE MORNING...GOING FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT.
MDB/BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LARGE AREA OF 1000-1500 FT CIGS IS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF LAKE EFFECT LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE OFFSHORE OF KMKE SOUTHWARD TO ORD/MDW. THIS IS
PRODUCING IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBY. WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS
BAND HAVE TURNED NNW WITH NNE WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE BAND.
EXPECT THIS BAND TO SLOWLY PIVOT EASTWARD INTO MID MORNING BUT IN
THE MEANTIME ORD/MDW WILL LIKELY BE IN AND OUT OF IFR CIGS AND
MVFR VSBY IN DRIZZLE. ONCE THE BAND SHIFTS EAST OR EVEN DISSIPATES
WINDS SHOULD TURN NNE THEN FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 10 KT.
ONCE THE IFR IMPROVES MVFR WILL PERSIST BUT SHOULD SEE SCATTERING
TOWARDS RFD/DPA THIS AFTERNOON WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKE LIKELY
KEEPING MVFR CIGS AT ORD/MDW/GYY THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH
SCATTERING IS POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY
THIS EVENING WHICH WILL PUSH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTHWEST. THERE MAY BE SOME EXPANSION OF
COVERAGE AS THIS OCCURS SO RFD/DPA MAY GET BACK INTO MVFR BUT WILL
KEEP COVERAGE SCATTERED FOR NOW. DO NOT HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CIG EVOLUTION TONIGHT AND MAY BE HOLDING
ONTO THEM TOO LONG. SKIES DO LOOK TO HAVE SCATTERED OR LESS
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST PERIODIC IFR NEXT FEW HOURS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN END TIME OF IFR.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY WITH BASES RISING
THROUGH AFTERNOON. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG THEY MAY LAST.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF SCATTERING THIS
AFTERNOON.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT SPEEDS
WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON.
MDB/BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
SOUTHEAST WINDS.
THURSDAY...TSRA AND MVFR LIKELY. SOUTH WINDS.
FRIDAY...LOW CHANCE SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY. GUSTY WEST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
257 AM CDT
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN SPEED INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TRACKS
NORTH TO MANITOBA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STEADY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WHEN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN VERY
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LOW TRACKING NORTHWEST OF THE LAKE AND
DEEPENING WHILE DOING SO. WHILE SPECIFICS ARE STILL UNDETERMINED
THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE
LAKE...STARTING OUT SOUTHERLY THEN TURNING WESTERLY AS A COLD
FRONT PASSES THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL OTHER MORE SUBTLE SURFACE
TROUGHS MAY CROSS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN WEST AND NORTHWEST. A PERIOD OF GALES STILL LOOKS
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN FRONT AS COLDER
AIR SPREADS IN. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE GOING INTO SUNDAY.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
702 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
Short-term forecast concerns include potential for dense fog across
the southern KILX CWA, as well as, approaching deck of low clouds
across the north. Clear skies/light winds have once again led to
the development of fog early this morning, particularly from the Saint
Louis area eastward across southern Illinois. HRRR shows fog
becoming dense across this area over the next few hours before
dissipating after 8am. So far the fog has not become widespread or
dense, but based on forecast soundings and the HRRR, have included
patchy dense fog south of I-70. Have also issued a Special Weather
Statement to highlight the low visbys.
07z/2am surface analysis shows cold front settling southward into
central Illinois, with a widespread area of low clouds noted to the
north of the boundary across the Great Lakes into north-central
Illinois. Latest IR satellite imagery shows leading edge of clouds
along the I-74 corridor. Main questions today will be how far south
these clouds will push and whether or not they will clear out this
afternoon. Satellite timing tools suggest the clouds will reach a
Rushville to Mattoon line by daybreak, but additional southward
progress appears unlikely as frontal boundary stalls. Will
therefore go with a cloudy forecast across the northern two-thirds
of the CWA this morning, with mostly sunny skies across the far
south. Despite continued northeasterly flow behind the front,
forecast soundings indicate a gradual dissipation of low-level
moisture as the day progresses. Have gone with decreasing clouds
through the afternoon accordingly. Due to the cloud cover and shift
in wind direction, temps will be quite a bit cooler today than in
recent days, with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 60s
along/north of I-74 to around 80 far south.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
Winds will veer to the southeast on Wednesday in response to an
approaching upper wave and its associated cold front. As a result,
temperatures will rise back into the upper 70s and lower 80s. As a
deep upper trough slowly approaches from the west, surface low
pressure is expected to develop over the Southern Plains on
Wednesday then lift northward into the Great Lakes by Thursday
night. Warm-advection showers/thunder will develop ahead of this
system Wednesday night: however, all model guidance keeps any precip
focused mainly across the western half of the CWA. Given this
slowing trend, have removed PoPs for all locations along/east of a
Paris to Effingham line. Further west, will go with likely PoPs
across the Illinois River Valley after midnight. As surface low
deepens and tracks just west of the area on Thursday, strong S/SW
flow will provide one more very warm day with highs in the upper
70s/lower 80s. Showers and thunderstorms will develop in advance of
a slowly approaching cold front, mainly focused across the west.
With strong upper dynamics in place and increasing amounts of
moisture flowing northward from the Gulf of Mexico, a few strong to
severe thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon across
west-central Illinois. Once low lifts into the Great Lakes, front
will get a solid push eastward by Thursday evening. Will go with
categorical PoPs across the board as the boundary interacts with a
moist and moderately unstable environment.
Cold front will push into Indiana by early Friday morning, with
perhaps a few lingering showers across the Wabash River Valley.
Main weather story late in the week will be the sharply cooler
conditions. 850mb temps are progged to drop into the 0 to -2C range
by Saturday morning, supporting daytime highs only in the lower
to middle 60s and overnight lows in the lower 40s this weekend.
Airmass will slowly moderate by early next week, with temperatures
climbing back to around 70 by Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
The cold front has pushed south of all TAF sites, with northeast
winds around 10-14kt in its wake. A short period of LIFR
fog and ceilings have developed along the leading edge of the
clouds at SPI and DEC with 200FT ceilings and 1/2sm FG. Behind the
front, IFR conditions with ceilings of 400-800 ft and p6sm vis have
developed within 2 hours of FROPA.
Based on the latest observation trends, ceilings should improve
to the MVFR by late morning. The main concern is how soon the
clouds will erode to VFR, with all the low level moisture trapped
under a developing subsidence inversion. Latest guidance off the
NAM-WRF and HRRR continues to suggest we will see some breaks
develop by late morning or early afternoon. Will continue with
the previous trends in the TAFs in scattering out the lower cigs
by afternoon with some broken VFR cigs into the late afternoon
hours. Southern TAFS of DEC and SPI should see VFR the soonest,
and possibly as early as 11 am or Noon.
The gusty northeast winds immediately behind the front will
settle out in the 8 to 14 kt range for much of the day. Mixing
heights will be limited by the low ceiling heights, so gusts
should not get to 20kt at any point.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
627 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.TODAY...FORECAST CONCERNS DEALT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP AND MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY. LARGE AND STUBBORN 500 MB RIDGE WILL SLOW THE
EASTWARD MOVING OF THE INCOMING 500MB VORT MAX/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
INTO THE STATE UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR/HOPWRF/ARW/NAM12
ALL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF WESTERN IOWA UNTIL AFTER 18-19Z TODAY AND
THEN INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 21-22Z TIME FRAME. CUT BACK ON
THE EASTERN EXTENT OF POPS AS WELL AS LOWERED POPS TO CHANCES UNTIL
AFTER 20Z ACROSS THE FAR WEST. NAM/GFS/RAP CRL SOUNDING HAVE RAIN
FALLING B/T 20-23Z DEPENDING THE MODEL. PLUS THE STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION FINALLY ENTER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH THE
DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIP TODAY.
MAX TEMPS WERE TRICKY TODAY WITH THE LESSER EASTWARD EXTENT OF
PRECIP BUT STILL ANTICIPATING AN ABUNDANCE OF MID TO HIGH CLOUD
COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE PARTIAL STRONG WAA AS SOUTHEAST
FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPS IN THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTH INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S. LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR
TEMPERATURES TODAY. NAM SEEMED WAY TOO COLD BUT THE GFS WAS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF FOR TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNING TO THE AREA AFTER RATHER QUIESCENT
PERIOD. FOR NOW H500 RIDGE REMAINS DOMINANT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS WITH LARGE SFC HIGH ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA JUST NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SUBJECTIVE H500 ANALYSIS AT 00Z SHOWS WEAK LOBE
OF HT FALLS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN IA AND EASTERN NE ASSOCIATED
WITH FIRST LOBE OF VORTICITY MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT NNE OUT OF CENTRAL CO
WITH SFC SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH ATTENDANT TROUGH
BACK NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WY. BY 00Z WED...THE H500 SHORT WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST WHILE THE H500 VORTICITY MAX
OVER NEBRASKA INTERACTS WITH A RIBBON OF H850 MOISTURE EXTENDING
FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTH TO TEXAS. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE
THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY WITH SOME ACTIVITY REACHING
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD 00Z. THE ADVANCEMENT
OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE COMPLICATED SOMEWHAT BY
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. ALONG WITH THAT...REINFORCING DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT
SOUTHWEST AT THE SFC FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD IOWA
WHERE DEW POINTS OF THE MID 40S FROM EASTERN WISCONSIN GIVE WAY TO
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS WESTERN IOWA.
CURRENT TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD SLOWLY WORK EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE DRY AIR AND PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST WITH WED
MORNING. HAVE TRIMMED BACK EARLY PERIOD POP AFT 00Z THIS EVENING
AND INCREASED OVERNIGHT MORE IN LINE WITH 12Z/00Z EURO BASED ON
ANALYSIS AND CURRENT TRENDS. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
LESSENING INSTABILITY AS THE AREA OF STORMS CROSSES THE REGION
TONIGHT. SO...HAVE TRIMMED BACK WORDING FROM CAT THUNDER TO SCT
THUNDER AND THEN ISO AFT 04Z TONIGHT WEST. SINCE THIS IS A SEVERAL
PART SYSTEM WITH THE SECOND WAVE PROJECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...POP CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL
AREAS EARLY AND THEN EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHER POPS
EXPECTED. ONCE AGAIN WITH SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY THUNDER OF
THE ISO TO SCT VARIETY IS EXPECTED. WITH THE SLOWER EVOLUTION OF
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS SUGGESTING THE
WESTERN MOST WAVE...NOW OVER NORTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA...WILL
HAVE A LONGER TIME TO DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND SHOULD
TRACK THROUGH IOWA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD
REDUCE POP CHANCES WED EVENING AND OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTH.
THE CURRENT 00Z GEM IS FOLLOWING THE EARLIER 12Z EURO EVOLUTION
WHILE THE NAM IS WOEFULLY TOO FAR NORTH WITH ITS FORCING WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THE GFS LIES INBETWEEN...BUT IS LEANING MORE TOWARD
THE 00Z GEM AND 12Z EURO SOLUTIONS. GIVEN OUR SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
FLOW AND MORE ENERGETIC FALL SYSTEMS...PREFERENCE WILL BE GIVEN TO
THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS THAT ARE DIGGING THIS SUBSEQUENT WAVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY...ONLY TO INCREASE AGAIN AS THE FINAL WAVE
DEEPENS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND A
DEVELOPING FULL FALL CYCLONE EMERGES. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
DEF ZONE RAIN AXIS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST...WILL INCREASE RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES ACCORDINGLY.
OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE IS THE NEXT ITEM OF DISCUSSION...WE CONTINUE
OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON DAY2...BUT
THIS IS PREDICATED ON A RATHER AMBITIOUS WARMING OF THE NAM
SOLUTION IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH IF ANY SUN WE WILL HAVE DURING
THE DAY WED...CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER CONDITIONAL DURING THE DAY.
AFTER SUNSET...POTENTIAL FOR SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WHICH MAY
LEAD TO WIND OR HAIL THREATS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH. WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FALL CYCLONE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPS WILL
BEGIN A SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD TREND. H850 TEMPS ON FRIDAY WITH A
CLOSED H500 LOW AMPLIFYING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LOWERS OUR
DAYTIME H850 TEMPS TO 0 TO -2C. WITH -30C PROGGED AT H500...COLD
POOL SHOULD CLOUD AREA OVER...PERHAPS BRINGING SHOWERS AND
STRONGER MIXING ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING...COLD AIR SETTLES
INTO THE AREA. FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE
WINDS DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW SFC GRADIENT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SOME FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BY LATE SAT
AFTERNOON EURO H850 TEMPS RECOVER TO 2C WEST TO -2C EAST. GFS IS
TOO PROGRESSIVE AND WARMING TOO FAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL LIKELY
SLOWLY RECOVER A FEW DEGREES TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH A CRISP
FALL DAY EXPECTED. A DECENT PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY
MORNING SHOULD BRING A FEW CLOUDS...AND A MILDER DAY WITH HIGHS
BACK TOWARD 70. WITH WNW FLOW NOW PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EXPECT SOME FAST MOVING CLIPPERS TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION...KEEPING TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...30/12Z
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. THE
LATEST HRRR HAS THE LOW STRATUS BURNING OFF B/T 14-17Z THIS
MORNING. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW
FOR THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
INTRODUCED MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AND THEN PRECIP ROUGHLY 3-4
HOURS AFTER CIGS MOVE INTO CENTRAL IOWA.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
933 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 932 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IS DIGGING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A SMALL, BUT STRONG +90KT UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE IS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. NEAR THE SURFACE, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IS ANCHORED NEAR AND ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO
BORDER. A MODEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S(F) WITH
NEAR 60F IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH A NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING FROM EASTERN COLORADO AT 00Z
TUESDAY INTO NEBRASKA BY 12Z TUESDAY. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IN
THE KINSLEY, STAFFORD, PRATT OR EVEN MEDICINE LODGE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO END BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z BASED ON LATEST HRRR AND RAP.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE ONGOING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND
ADJUST TIMING AS NEEDED. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF FAR
WESTERN KANSAS GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM 00Z TUESDAY
TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. FURTHER EAST/SOUTHEAST NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM EASTERN
OREGON INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY LATE DAY WHICH STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. AS THIS NEXT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF A SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY HAYS TO MEADE. EAST OF
THIS AXIS LATE TODAY THE SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S, CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG,
AND 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS AT 21Z TUESDAY
AND 00Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS IF STORMS DO DEVELOP LATE TODAY A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAIN HAZARD
AT THIS TIME WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM. A COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE
RANGE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY PATCH
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED ABOVE THE
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WEDNESDAY, THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN THROUGH THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTERNOON.
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FIRST ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BE
OBSERVED. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE IN
THIS AREA WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECASTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FORM THE MID 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO MID 80S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK
BORDER. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PLACE WESTERN KANSAS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY INCREASING TO THE
LOWER 80S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS WILL START OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY MORNING INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 50S SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HYS TERMINAL THROUGH
13Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEARING SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 84 57 81 54 / 40 30 20 30
GCK 82 54 79 51 / 10 10 20 50
EHA 80 51 79 50 / 10 10 10 30
LBL 84 53 81 53 / 30 10 10 20
HYS 81 58 78 53 / 40 30 30 50
P28 85 62 86 60 / 40 30 20 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
640 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH A NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING FROM EASTERN COLORADO AT 00Z
TUESDAY INTO NEBRASKA BY 12Z TUESDAY. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IN
THE KINSLEY, STAFFORD, PRATT OR EVEN MEDICINE LODGE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO END BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z BASED ON LATEST HRRR AND RAP.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE ONGOING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND
ADJUST TIMING AS NEEDED. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF FAR
WESTERN KANSAS GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM 00Z TUESDAY
TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. FURTHER EAST/SOUTHEAST NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM EASTERN
OREGON INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY LATE DAY WHICH STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. AS THIS NEXT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF A SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY HAYS TO MEADE. EAST OF
THIS AXIS LATE TODAY THE SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S, CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG,
AND 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS AT 21Z TUESDAY
AND 00Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS IF STORMS DO DEVELOP LATE TODAY A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAIN HAZARD
AT THIS TIME WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM. A COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE
RANGE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY PATCH
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED ABOVE THE
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WEDNESDAY, THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN THROUGH THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTERNOON.
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FIRST ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BE
OBSERVED. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE IN
THIS AREA WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECASTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FORM THE MID 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO MID 80S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK
BORDER. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PLACE WESTERN KANSAS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY INCREASING TO THE
LOWER 80S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS WILL START OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY MORNING INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 50S SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HYS TERMINAL THROUGH
13Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEARING SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 84 57 81 54 / 20 20 20 30
GCK 82 54 79 51 / 10 10 20 50
EHA 80 51 79 50 / 10 10 10 30
LBL 84 53 81 53 / 10 10 10 20
HYS 81 58 78 53 / 40 20 30 50
P28 85 62 86 60 / 40 40 20 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
607 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 247 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
The main weather system for the short term forecast period still
remains focused on Thursday and Thursday night. Medium range, and
now, short range guidance suggests that the best lift and forcing
shall remain limited to the aforementioned time period. This has
been consistent with the model runs since late last week.
With respect to severe potential, using the operational GFS as a
convective template, the time period between 23z-04z (6 pm - 11 pm
CDT) Friday, inclusive, is supportive of at least isolated to
scattered severe storms. The 0-1km and 0-6km Bulk shear remains
between 20-25 knots and 40 to 45 knots, respectively between 00z
and 06z Friday...with Mixed Layer and Most Unstable layer CAPE
edging into a northeast oriented gradient between 1200-1400 j/kg.
The Day 3 Slight Risk area defined by SPC fits very well with the
area of interest over Southeast Missouri Thursday evening.
At this point in time, suspect that there may be some wind damage
potential (entraining very dry air aloft into marginally favorable
layer lapse rates) with a squall line moving into and off of the
Southeast Missouri foothills between 00-03z Friday. Beyond that
time, low level convergence, originally associated with a surface
wave moving through eastern Missouri at the time, will take most
of the enhanced low level convergence and shear rapidly northeast
out of the area by 06z Friday. Other than this limited severe
weather potential, a broad swatch of 1-1.25 inches of rain will be
the primary activity with the passage of the weather system
Thursday and Thursday night.
In the very near term, fog potential will still be an issue for this
morning. Issued an SPS for locally dense fog once again. All though
the high resolution 3km HRRR continues to overreach on coverage, the
13km RAP and 4km NAM-WRF (NMM version) appear to suggest that
Southeast Illinois could see more widespread fog through daybreak.
The influx of moisture should increase after today will limit the
25-30 degree diurnal swing of temperatures experience during the
last few days. Went slightly above the warmest guidance today for
maximum temperatures. More normal diurnal range of temperatures
can then be expected prior to the development of convection late
night Wednesday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
The pattern will generally be an upper level trof over the east U.S.
with strong flow coming into the CONUS across the Pacific NW, and
some riding over the SW U.S. extending into Mexico. Mainly dry
weather is expected. A cold front will depart the area early Friday
with decreasing chances of showers in the morning. High pressure
will build in, and lead to a cooler Saturday. Not sure how cool
though, as the GFS shows 925-850mb warm advection developing as
early as 12-18z Sat. Temperatures will moderate back to seasonal
norms Sunday-Monday. Will keep an eye on a frontal system the models
advertise Sunday night into early Monday. 00z GFS develops some
convection, however prior runs did not. ECMWF stays generally dry.
Will keep it dry for now and monitor trends.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 607 AM CDT Tue SEP 3029 2014
Little change from previous forecast package. Kept lingering
mention of IFR/MVFR fog for the first hour at KCGI/KPAH, but
shifted immediately to VFR conditions for the remainder of the
forecast period.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...CN
Aviation...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
945 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH 945AM UPDATE...HAVE CONTINUED TO EXPAND COVERAGE OF LIKELY
AND CATEGORICAL POPS. REGARDLESS OF WHAT THE HRRR AND RAP ARE
CURRENTLY DEPICTING...LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TO HOLD TOGETHER. HOWEVER...12Z PIT SOUNDING SHOWS A LOT
OF DRY AIR...WHICH IS LIKELY THE REASON THAT MODELS SHOW A
WEAKENING TREND IN SHOWERS LATER TODAY AS THE AIR MASS MOVES
FARTHER EAST. IN ADDITION...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
EXPANDED ITS AREA FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT...AND HAVE LIKEWISE
EXPANDED THE AREA IN THE FORECAST THAT MENTIONS A SMALL HAIL
THREAT. 4AM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
WEAK BOUNDARY WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE AREA TODAY. STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME GETTING A HANDLE ON HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WITH THE MAIN 50H LOW WHICH WILL TRAIL BEHIND THE
FRONT AND MOVE INTO NE OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE NEVER REALLY GETS LINED UP AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE 50H LOW...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGS BACK WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A DRY LAYER UP
TO AROUND 5000 FT THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND. WILL LEAVE IN CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. IF THE LOW LEVELS ARE ABLE TO
SATURATE TODAY THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE.
IN ADDITION...COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH PASSING 50H...LOW MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT AN ISOLATED STORM COULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WEAKENS THIS EVENING. THE 50H LOW OPENS UP AND
WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN PA.
UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING 50H LOW SO WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN
THE FAR EAST FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENING HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW ON THURSDAY...
PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY. LATEST NAM IS SLOWING EVERYTHING DOWN...GFS IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE AND THE 12Z ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. FRIDAY DOES
APPEAR LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAIN.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM THE QUIET WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST TWO OR SO WEEKS...TO A MORE ACTIVE AND COOLER
PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE ERIE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW. BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS
OHIO THIS MORNING CLOSER TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS SHOWING
RATHER WIDESPREAD COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT
WHOLLY CONVINCED OF THIS BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. VCSH REMAINS MOST PORTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KFKL AND KDUJ.
OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
755 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH 8AM UPDATE...HAVE ADDED SOME LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOW THE LINE OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN OHIO AS BEING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE BY THE
AFTERNOON...BUT STILL THINK THE LINE WILL MANAGE TO HOLD TOGETHER
AT LEAST INTO MERCER COUNTY. ALSO ADDED THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST
SLIGHTLY EARLIER WITH SOME ISOLATED STRIKES ALREADY OCCURRING IN
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
WEAK BOUNDARY WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE AREA TODAY. STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME GETTING A HANDLE ON HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WITH THE MAIN 50H LOW WHICH WILL TRAIL BEHIND THE
FRONT AND MOVE INTO NE OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE NEVER REALLY GETS LINED UP AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE 50H LOW...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGS BACK WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A DRY LAYER UP
TO AROUND 5000 FT THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND. WILL LEAVE IN CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. IF THE LOW LEVELS ARE ABLE TO
SATURATE TODAY THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE.
IN ADDITION...COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH PASSING 50H...LOW MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT AN ISOLATED STORM COULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WEAKENS THIS EVENING. THE 50H LOW OPENS UP AND
WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN PA.
UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING 50H LOW SO WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN
THE FAR EAST FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENING HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW ON THURSDAY...
PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY. LATEST NAM IS SLOWING EVERYTHING DOWN...GFS IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE AND THE 12Z ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. FRIDAY DOES
APPEAR LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAIN.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM THE QUIET WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST TWO OR SO WEEKS...TO A MORE ACTIVE AND COOLER
PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR FOG ALREADY HAS DEVELOPED IN THE USUAL VALLEY LOW LYING AREAS
AND IS INCLUDED IN TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH PATCHY MVFR
ELSEWHERE. CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE ERIE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW. BAND OF SHOWERS
ACROSS MICHIGAN THIS MORNING CLOSER TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS
SHOWING RATHER WIDESPREAD COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
NOT WHOLLY CONVINCED OF THIS BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. VCSH REMAINS MOST PORTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KFKL AND KDUJ.
OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
739 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING
N THRU WRN NEBRASKA. IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM IS A SHARP RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM MO THRU MN INTO MANITOBA AND NRN ONTARIO. SHORTWAVE
THAT PRODUCED SHOWERS HERE YESTERDAY IS NOW OVER LWR MI AND SRN
ONTARIO. IN THE WAKE OF THAT SHORTWAVE...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS BEEN TRAPPED UNDER A STRENGTHENING INVERSION...RESULTING IN OVC
SKIES OVERNIGHT ACROSS UPPER MI WITH ONE EXCEPTION. DRIER AIR AND
CLEAR SKIES HAVE ADVANCED S ACROSS CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE TIP OF
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED OVER NRN
ONTARIO.
GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING INVERSION AND LOWER SUN ANGLE AT THIS TIME
OF YEAR...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A WHILE TO CLEAR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ALTHOUGH CLEARING HAS ADVANCED S TO THE TIP
OF THE KEWEENAW OVERNIGHT...VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION RESULTING FROM THE SFC HIGH SHIFTING EASTWARD WILL SLOW
AND STALL THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCE OF DRIER AIR. SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALREADY SHOWS THIS OCCURRING. GIVEN WHERE THE CLEARING LINE IS
UPSTREAM TO THE E OF LAKE SUPERIOR...HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AREA WILL NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING TODAY. FOR NOW...FCST
WILL SHOW CLOUDS DOMINATING THIS MORNING AND THEN GRADUAL CLEARING
IN THE AFTN. IT MAY END UP BEING THAT DOWNSLOPE AREAS WILL BE THE
FIRST TO SEE INCREASING SUNSHINE THIS AFTN WITH CLEARING THEN SLOWLY
EXPANDING FROM THERE. AS FOR TEMPS...LOWERED TEMPS A BIT FROM
INHERITED FCST TO REFLECT THE MORE PESSIMISTIC CLEARING TREND. TEMPS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50F OVER THE NCNTRL WHERE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO
LINGER LONGEST. OTHERWISE...50S WIL BE THE RULE TODAY.
IF SKIES DO CLEAR THIS AFTN/EVENING...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AGAIN TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS SPREADING E FROM THE POTENT SHORTWAVE
LIFTING THRU THE DAKOTAS BUT MORE SO DUE TO A RETURN OF LOWER CLOUDS
LIFTING BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SE. ALTHOUGH POTENT SHORTWAVE
WILL BE TAKING A TRACK WELL W OF HERE...RIBBON OF FAIRLY STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY SPREAD SCT
SHRA AS FAR E AS FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
ATTENTION IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT 12Z WED INTO THE CWA AT 00Z SAT
WHILE DEEPENING AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED...AS IS GENERALLY
AGREED ON BY NWP. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN LOOKS TO CLOSE OFF INTO A
LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRI NIGHT...BUT MODEL
DISAGREEMENT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AT THIS POINT WITH THE STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT DOES INCREASE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON WITH MODELS SHOWING A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS.
ONE THING THAT CAN BE SAID WITH CERTAINTY IS THAT THE PATTERN WILL
BE MORE ACTIVE THAN LAST WEEK.
SHOWERS /POSSIBLY WITH SOME THUNDER/ IS STILL EXPECTED TO VERY
GRADUALLY MOVE W TO E ACROSS THE CWA WED THROUGH THU DUE TO
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT. MAIN ISSUE
TO POINT OUT FROM A CONFIDENCE STANDPOINT IS THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL PROBABLY EJECT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE W /AS SHOWN BY
NWP/...BUT THE MODELS DO NO AGREE ON THE STRENGTH/TIMING/TRACK OF
ANY ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE
PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP AND/OR GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE...BUT
ACCURATELY TIMING THOSE OUT IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 60S LOOK TO MAKE A RETURN ON WED AND THU DUE TO THE WAA AND
RESULTING WARM AIRMASS /850MB TEMPS OF 10-13C/.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE UPPER TROUGH TEARS INTO THE AREA THU
NIGHT AND FRI...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WITH IT. AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE 850MB TEMPS BELOW 0C BY THE END OF
THE DAY FRI. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND MAGNITUDE OF
RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS AS IT MOVES IN...PERIODS OF PRECIP DOES LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET THU NIGHT INTO FRI...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SFC LOW LEVEL FEATURES. SOME
MODELS /MAINLY THE GFS AND NAM/ SHOW A DEEPER SFC LOW TRANSITING THE
CWA THU NIGHT INTO FRI /AS THE GFS HAS SHOWN VARIOUS ITERATIONS OF
FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS/. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...GALES WOULD LIKELY
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WHILE THIS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO ADD
THIS SCENARIO TO THE FORECAST. PRECIP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT IS A BIT
MORE CERTAIN SINCE IT WILL BE LESS DUE TO A SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AND MORE
TO SUB ZERO 850MB TEMPS AND WNW-NW LOW LEVEL WINDS LEADING TO LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. IN FACT...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW
COLD THE AIRMASS IS...SNOW IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE PICTURE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS UNLIKELY /ESPECIALLY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS/. DID ADD SNOW CHANCES TO THE FORECAST
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN UPPER MI FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AND FOR
PORTIONS OF NWRN AND NERN UPPER MI SAT NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS BY SATURDAY
LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S....WITH LOW TEMPS SAT NIGHT
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
GOING COMPLETELY WITH MODEL CONSENSUS IDEA SUN AND MON GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER UPPER MI
EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER STRENGTHENING INVERSION...RESULTING IN MVFR
TO IFR CIGS. THE CLEARING LINE HAS ADVANCED AS FAR S AS NEAR KCMX...BUT
HAS NEARLY STALLED NOW. BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EXPECTED
SLOWLY VEERING WINDS TODAY...KCMX SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS SCATTER OUT
TO PREVAILING VFR BY AFTN. LOCATED FARTHER INTO THE LOW CLOUDS...
KIWD WILL SEE IFR TO LOW MVFR CIGS PERSIST THRU THE MORNING.
DEVELOPING LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WIND SHOULD RESULT IN CLOUDS SCATTERING
OUT TO PREVAILING VFR DURING THE MID AFTN HRS. AT KSAW...UPSLOPE
WIND THROUGH THE DAY WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS LINGERING
UNTIL LATE AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE THE RULE AT KIWD/KCMX
TONIGHT. AT KSAW...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...THEN AS
WINDS VEER TO THE SE...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS THAT WILL STILL BE
LINGERING TO THE SE OF THE AREA WILL ADVECT BACK TO THE
NW...BRINGING LOW MVFR CIGS TO KSAW OVERNIGHT. UNDER S TO SE UPSLOPE
FLOW...CIGS WILL LIKELY FALL FARTHER TO IFR AND POTENTIALLY LIFR
LATE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
WITH HIGH PRES JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
UNDER 20KT THIS MORNING. WINDS OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR MAY
INCREASE INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE FOR A TIME THIS AFTN/EVENING AS THE
HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE E. WINDS SHOULD OTHERWISE REMAIN UNDER 20KT
THROUGH AT LEAST THU MORNING...THOUGH THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT UPTICK
IN S TO SE WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WED AS PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BTWN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE W. THAT COLD FRONT WILL REACH LAKE SUPERIOR THU...AND THEN A
WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW ORGANIZES AND HOW QUICKLY IT
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES N THRU NRN ONTARIO...THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF NW GALES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AT SOME POINT
FRI AND/OR SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
641 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DEALING WITH TIMING OF PRECIP EVENTS
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION.
INITIAL SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING WAS LIFTING INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 07Z. SUPPORTED BY
60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. CONVECTION HAD
WEAKENED AND DIMINISHED SINCE 05Z AS BAND OF STORMS MOVED AWAY
FROM SUPPORT OF 60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
06Z RAP TRANSLATES THIS BAND OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE EAST DURING
THE MORNING AND INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME WITH SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING INITIAL BAND OF
STORMS STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BY 18Z IN ADVANCE OF DRY LINE. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER
CLOUDS BREAK ENOUGH FOR SUN TO ADD TO DESTABILIZATION NEAR THE DRY
LINE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE.
AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. PRIMARY FORCING FINALLY SHIFTS EAST WITH THE UPPER WAVE
AND SURFACE FRONT LATE THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT
TERM WEATHER SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER
STRONG WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PULLS DOWN
COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. WARMER TEMPS RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AS MEAN TROUGH SETS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION
WITH RIDGING IN THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST THIS MORNING...AFFECTING KOFK BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z...AND KLNK
BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z. IF LINE HOLDS TOGETHER...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
STORMS AT KOMA AFTER 18Z. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN GENERALLY VFR
WITH MVFR VSBYS COMMON IN PRECIPITATION. EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF NO
PRECIP BETWEEN ABOUT 20Z AND 00Z...BUT MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FIRE ALONG A FRONT SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. SOME STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN KOFK NEAR 00Z...AND IN THE KLNK AND KOMA AREAS AFTER
04Z. ATTENDANT MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
310 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY AND
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. AS THE
WEEK UNFOLDS EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE...PLEASANT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNING. THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE
NIPPY...A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE. THE RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVER HEAD ON FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS OF 9Z THE RH AT WMC WAS
100 PERCENT AND 89 PERCENT AT WMC...WITH LIGHT AND CALM WINDS
RESPECTIVELY. SENSIBLE WEATHER-WISE...THE SCENARIO IS PRIMED FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT...BUT CAN BE HIT OR MISS BETWEEN BASINS...SO KEPT PATCHY
FOG IN THE GRIDS. THE PWS ARE STILL ENHANCED OVER NORTHERN NV TODAY
ON THE GFS40. THE HRRR AND NAM CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS INTO THE
LKN CWA...HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT QPF NOT ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TRANSITIONING TO NORTHERLY FLOW
ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY...WITH PWS DIPPING BELOW .30
OF AN INCH. MOST VALLEYS WILL REACH THE 60S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH TONOPAH AND GABBS FLIRTING WITH THE 70F BENCHMARK.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPCOMING DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER NEVADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR DRY CONDITIONS. THURSDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE JUST BELOW FREEZING AT MANY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER
VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST NEVADA. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE...INITIALLY PROVIDING A COOL DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 70S IN MOST AREAS...TO MAYBE
NEAR 80 DEGREES BY THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S
THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CIGS/VSBY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VCSH
WITH LIGHT SPRINKLES POSSIBLE AT THE KEKO/KELY TAF SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA. LATER IN THE WEEK A RIDGE WILL MOVE BACK
INTO THE WESTERN U.S. RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.
WIDESPREAD HAINES OF 2...AND WITH THIS WEEKENDS HEFTY QPF...IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE FIRE SEASON OF 2014 IS COMING TO A CLOSE FOR
THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
97/86/86/97
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
640 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...
UPDATE: FOG HAS BECOME QUITE DENSE OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC (WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS)... WARRANTING ISSUANCE OF A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM. VSBYS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
DURING THE 9AM-11AM TIME FRAME.
EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 222 AM TUESDAY...
TODAY... FIRST CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING IS THE DEGREE OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA THUS FAR. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS NOW HEADING EAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST... WITH THE VEIL OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS DEPARTING ALONG WITH IT. THE DAMP GROUND COMBINED
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT PATCHY/FLEETING NATURE OF THESE CONDITIONS
(SEVERAL SITES HAVE BOUNCED AROUND BETWEEN 1/4 MI AND 5 MI IN FOG
THE LAST FEW HRS) GIVES US PAUSE AS TO THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. THE HRRR DEPICTS A FAIRLY SOLID DECK OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
FORMING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE OBSERVED TRENDS. IF VSBYS DO DROP AND HOLD THERE FOR OVER AN
HOUR... THEY`RE LIKELY TO HOLD FIRM THROUGH MID MORNING... GIVEN THE
WEAK WIND FIELD THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET RESULTING IN
MINIMAL STIRRING/DISPERSION HORIZONTALLY OR VERTICALLY. WILL KEEP
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MID MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. THEN... ONCE HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT MIXING HELPS TO DISPERSE
THE FOG/STRATUS... EXPECT A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY...
WITH FLAT AFTERNOON STRATOCU LIKELY TO STAY SCATTERED AT WORST. WITH
THICKNESSES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS... STILL LOOK FOR HIGHS WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF 80.
FOR TONIGHT: THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE NE WELL OFF THE SE
COAST WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR SE TO MINIMIZE ANY IMPACT ON CENTRAL
NC. THE WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN HOLDS WITH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SPANNING THE AREA AND A VERY WEAK SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH
OVER PA/WV/VA... A REFLECTION OF THE CLIPPER MID LEVEL VORTEX NOW
OVER ERN MI THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MIDATLANTIC REGION REGION
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MODELS VARY IN THEIR IMPACTS ON
OUR WEATHER WITH THIS FEATURE... WITH THE NAM MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN
THE GFS IN TAKING A SLUG OF 850-700 MB MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE BUT IT IS SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM... SO WILL RETAIN A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA OVERNIGHT... AND LATER FORECASTS CAN INCREASE THIS COVERAGE IF
LATER GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE NAM. LOWS 57-60. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...
AS NOTED ABOVE... WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
MAINLY OVER THE EAST WED MORNING. THE PRESENCE OR LACK OF SUCH
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH FOG FORMS WED MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME LIGHT FOG TO START THE DAY... AND PERHAPS MORE DENSE IF
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER-ASSOCIATED CLOUDS DO NOT HAPPEN.
OTHERWISE... EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. THE CLIPPER LOW
WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND AS THE STRONG VORTICITY MAX ROUNDS ITS
BASE... SHIFTING OFF THE NJ COAST... AND WE SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE
FLAT DAYTIME CUMULUS FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE
LOW. MODELS SHOW WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
LATE... BETWEEN THE DEPARTING CLIPPER AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
COVERING THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS LATE WED/WED NIGHT.
WHILE MODELS SHOW A MINOR PERTURBATION TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WED NIGHT... THIS SHOULD BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE
WITH DEEP DRY AIR MOVING IN. EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH WED NIGHT.
THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO START WED ABOUT 10 M ABOVE NORMAL...
SUPPORTING HIGHS ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL... 80-84. SOME
CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST WHERE MODELS
INDICATE AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT GENERATED BY
LIGHT BUT CONFLUENT AND UPSLOPE-DIRECTED LOW LEVEL FLOW. LOWS WITHIN
A COUPLE DEGREES OF 60. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY...WITH THE AXIS
MOVING EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO FORECAST
VERY MINOR QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH
THE GFS FORECASTING THIS THURSDAY AND THE NAM MORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS DOES HAVE A RELATIVE MAXIMUM OF 850MB THETA-E AIR OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY WITH WEAK 850MB LIFT...BUT HEIGHTS
ALOFT ARE RISING AND ANY LOW-LEVEL FORCING WITH ANY SURFACE BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE WEAK. LIFTED INDICES ARE ABOVE 0C...AND MLCAPE IN THE
LOWEST KM DOES NOT REGISTER AS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS APPEAR CAPPED. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES...POSSIBLY A SHOWER COULD DRIFT SOUTHEAST FOLLOWING THE
THERMAL WIND FROM HIGHER TERRAIN AND GET CLOSE TO THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE IN SINGLE FIGURES
IN BOTH THE MAV AND THE MET. WITH AT LEAST A PARTLY SUNNY SKY
EXPECTED...1000-850MB THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST LOWER TO MID 80S FOR
HIGHS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH MAV AND MET MOS GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR 60 IN THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE
NIGHT...LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE AND POSSIBLY ON THE HIGHER END OF THE
LOWER 60S TOWARD THE TRIAD AS THE WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE START TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF AN
ELONGATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY
00Z SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. ONE TREND
HAS BEEN FOR THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED...
WHICH...IF THE TREND CONTINUES...COULD SLOW THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. LAPSE RATES ON COARSE GFS
AND ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC AT BEST...SO
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED. STILL...WITH WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE
INCREASING TO AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE 30KT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY STRONGER STORM COULD HAVE A GUSTY
WIND...THOUGH NOT CONFIDENT CURENTLY IN THE PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
BE FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH THE ECMWF DOES CONTINUE
TO FORECAST GREATER DIGGING WITH UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND EAST ACROSS AREAS JUST NORTH OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...THE TREND OF THIS WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED...BUT CURRENTLY THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW ON THE ECMWF STAYS NORTH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY
OR SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...SOME JET STREAK CIRRUS COULD OCCUR IF
THE GFS AND ECMWF UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FORECASTS VERIFY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE JET AXIS ALOFT.
THE ECMWF IS ALSO MORE AMPLIFIED WITH ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF MID-
LEVEL WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...THIS ONE APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MONDAY. THE GFS IS DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING...
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF A SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THE MID-LEVEL
WAVE AND ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF...IF THERE IS ANY
PRECIPITATION MONDAY...THE THOUGHT IS IT WOULD BE MID-LEVEL DRIVEN
AND MOSTLY LIGHT. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL TREND A LITTLE MORE
PESSIMISTIC ON THE LAST DAY OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...INCREASING
CLOUDS BUT KEEPING THE OVERALL FORECAST DRY.
AFTER HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS CHILLY 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES INTO THE 1340S...THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW 40S OVER
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MODEST WARMING FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK AT LEAST IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM TUESDAY...
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC
THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z THIS MORNING... WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TO FOLLOW
BY LATE MORNING... WHICH WILL HOLD THROUGH 04Z (MIDNIGHT TONIGHT).
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THE RESULTANT CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE LED TO LOW STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING. THESE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUOUS... WITH
AVIATION CONDITIONS PERIODICALLY SWINGING WILDLY BETWEEN LIFR AND
MVFR... MAKING THE TAFS CHALLENGING THIS MORNING. PILOTS SHOULD BE
PARTICULARLY ALERT FOR POSSIBLE VFR HOLES WITHIN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE... ANY CIGS SHOULD LIFT AND BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY 15Z OR 16Z... WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT... WE EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW IFR OR LIFR FOG LATE IN THE TAF VALID
PERIOD... WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE (MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST)
MOSTLY UNDER 5 KTS TODAY/TONIGHT.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z WED MORNING... SUB-VFR FOG EARLY WED MORNING
SHOULD MIX OUT BY 15Z. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRI... ALTHOUGH SHALLOW IFR GROUND FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE 08Z-13Z EACH MORNING THU AND FRI. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/STORMS FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS SAT. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>077-083>086-088.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
636 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW THIS FRONT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION IS OFF THE COAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST. 11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF
STRATUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHILE SURFACE OBS SHOW A LARGE
RANGE IN VISIBILITIES. PATCHY FOG AND SCT-V-BKN STRATUS WILL PERSIST
FOR A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LAST OF THE -RA/DZ IS EXITING THE COAST WITH CLEARING SKIES
FROM WEST TO EAST. POCKETS OF STRATO-CUMULUS WILL PERSIST A WHILE
LONGER...WHILE STRATUS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING. STRATUS AND FOG ARE A BETTER BET FARTHER
INLAND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THOSE AREAS WHERE SKIES ALREADY CLEARED
AND VERY LIGHT WINDS. ANY STRATUS/FOG WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES INTO THE LOWER COLUMN RESULTING IN
A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 80F MOST
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWS AROUND 60 INLAND...TO THE LOWER
60S AT THE COAST. EXPECT STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP INLAND AGAIN TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN FROM THE
NORTH INTO THE CAROLINAS REMAINING FAIRLY WEAK WED THROUGH THURS.
AT THE SAME TIME A FLAT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHARPEN AS RIDGE
BUILDS UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT THROUGH MID WEEK. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE E-SE AND LIGHTENING UP AS HIGH
SHIFTS EAST THROUGH TIME. PCP WATER VALUES DOWN LESS THAN AN INCH
MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY DUE TO A LITTLE IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH IN
THE UPPER LEVELS LATER ON WED AND SOME CU DEVELOPMENT IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE BOTH AFTERNOONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND WARM TEMPS AS RIDGE BUILDS AND HEIGHTS RISE ALONG WITH EARLY
FALL SUNSHINE.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S ACROSS THE SC PEE DEE
REGION...LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE EXCEPT A LITTLE COOLER AT THE BEACHES
WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN THEIR SEASONAL DROP...NOW IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH MID-
UPPER 60S AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH FRI AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. THIS INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AND POTENTIAL FOR SHWRS THROUGH THE DAY. PCP WATER VALUES AS LOW
AS AN INCH FRI MORNING WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES UP TO 2
INCHES BY AFTN OVER INLAND AREAS AS LLJ UP TO 30 KTS PROVIDES A
DECENT FEED OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS INLAND BY AFTN AND REACHING THE COAST
BY EVENING AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
PUSHING FRONT EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE TROUGH DOES BECOME
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS REACHING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS MAY DELAY THE
CLEARING ON SATURDAY BUT OVERALL EXPECT A DEEP DRY W-NW FLOW TO
PRODUCE SOME EXCEPTIONAL FALL LIKE WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEWPOINT TEMPS MAY END UP BELOW
50 DEGREES BY SUNDAY. THIS DRY AIR WILL ALLOW LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS
IN TEMPS WITH COOL START TO THE MORNINGS SUN AND MON AND TEMPS
REACHING INTO THE MID 70S MOST PLACES FOR AFTN HIGHS WITH BRIGHT
SUNSHINE. PCP WATER VALUES WILL PLUMMET TO A HALF INCH OR LESS BY
SUNDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE DOWN IN THE 50S SUN AND
MON.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE -RA FROM EARLIER TONIGHT HAS MOSTLY PUSHED
OFFSHORE...AND THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND OFF THE COAST.
SURFACE OBS INDICATE FOG IS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS
WHERE THE WINDS HAVE GONE CALM AND THE MID LEVEL CIGS ARE NO MORE.
THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED TEMPO IFR VSBYS FOR KLBT/KFLO EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND FOLLOWS SOME OF THE LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOWING
FOG/STRATUS EXPANDING INLAND AFTER 09Z. STILL THINK THE DEVELOPING
LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP WINDS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FOG...BUT SOME TEMPO IFR
CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT BY DAYBREAK. WILL KEEP SCT 500 FT STRATUS
AT THE COAST ATTM. DURING THE DAY... DRIER AIR BEHIND THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST FOR THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KT DURING
THE DAY...BECOMING LIGHT/VRB AFTER 00Z WED.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS ARE LIKELY
AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AWAY FROM THE
COAST...AND AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR THE COAST. SEAS ARE LIKELY 3-5 FT
AWAY FROM THE COAST TO 2 FT NEAR SHORE.
PREVIOUS FORECAST...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH LOW PRESSURE
POSITIONED SOUTH...THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST...OF THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE MORE OF A FACTOR ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND
FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS ALL WATERS
BY 00Z WED WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL BE LOWEST ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE BRUNSWICK WATERS WHERE THE
FLOW WILL BE OFFSHORE. LIKEWISE...EXPECT SEAS TO BE HIGHER IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OUTER FRYING PAN SHOALS WATERS WITH SHORTER PERIOD
SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT IN A RELAXED GRADIENT..STARTING OUT FROM THE NORTHEAST AND
VEERING AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE AND EVENTUALLY SE BY FRI
MORNING AS THE HIGH MIGRATES EASTWARD WITH TIME. NEAR SHORE WINDS
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE SEA BREEZE CAUSING A SLIGHT SPIKE IN
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOONS. SEAS WILL BASICALLY BE 3 FT OR
LESS...SUBSIDING A BIT FROM WED TO THURS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL START THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OFF SHORE. AN INCREASING
RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT SE WINDS TO INCREASE UP TO
15 TO 20 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH BY FRI EVE. THIS WILL KICK SEAS UP
FROM AROUND 2 FT EARLY FRI TO 3 TO 5 FT BY SAT MORNING. MAY RUN
INTO A FEW HOURS OF SCA CONDITIONS IN STRONGEST ON SHORE PUSH
RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY MORNING THE
WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NW REMAINING UP TO 15 KTS INITIALLY
BUT LIGHTENING UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE OFF SHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP HIGHER SEAS WELL OFF SHORE BY LATE SATURDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT
LOCAL WATERS DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SAT EVENING.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR/SRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1050 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS SOUTHEAST...BRUSHES AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE/LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
FIRST LINE OF CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY NEARING PERRY COUNTY AT THIS TIME. RAMPED
UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS NEAR OUR
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA BORDER FROM PERRY COUNTY OVER TOWARDS
MORGAN AND WASH COUNTIES IN OHIO FOR THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS AS IT
QUICKLY MOVES EAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PATCHES OF CLOUDS STILL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT 07Z...OTHERWISE
VALLEY FOG PREVAILS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS MID/UPPER TROF
OVER LAKE HURON AND MICHIGAN DROPPING SOUTHEAST. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT/WIND SHIFT WAS APPROACHING TOL AND STILL NORTH OF IND.
AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THE MAIN COOLING ALOFT TODAY WILL BE NORTH
OF OUR CWA. FOR EXAMPLE...00Z NAM HAS 500 MB TEMP AT PBZ COOLING
ABOUT 5C TODAY...WHILE CKB ONLY ABOUT A DEG C. SO TIMING THE
POPS...AND HOW FAR SOUTH TO MENTION PCPN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IS ONE CHALLENGE. AFTER DIGESTING THE MODELS...SEE NO
REASON TO CHANGE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS
HTS-CRW VCNTY FOR THIS EVENING. THIS IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN
MOST 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS. FURTHER NNE...HAVE POPS MAXING OUT AROUND
40 TO 50 PCT FOR N CNTRL WV FROM 21Z TODAY TO 01Z WEDNESDAY.
DRY AIR SOUTH OF THAT DISTURBANCE FOR TODAY. RAP SOLUTION TRIES TO
EVEN LOWER DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S. MAYBE ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN LIKE
BKW...BUT DID NOT GO THAT LOW IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS.
MAIN PUSH BEHIND FRONT IS INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO...BEFORE 925 MB WINDS
QUICKLY VEER TO EAST OR DIMINISH TO CALM. THINKING LOW STRATUS WILL
FORM TONIGHT IN SE OHIO BEHIND FRONT. FURTHER SOUTH IN THE COAL
FIELDS OF WV...WAS THINKING JUST THE USUAL DIURNAL LATE NIGHT FOG.
FURTHER NORTH...LINGERING CLOUDS MAY HINDER OR DELAY THE FOG
FORMATION AROUND CKB AND EKN. HTS-CRW CORRIDOR IS A TOUGH CALL
BETWEEN ALL 3 FOR LATE TONIGHT...PATCHES OF CLOUDS LINGERING
OVERNIGHT...STRATUS FORMATION...OR SURFACE BASED FOG FORMING.
OVERALL KEPT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GFS MOS
GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE HEADING EAST OUT TO SEA TO START THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...ANTICIPATE LOTS OF LOW
STRATUS WEDNESDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY BREAKING UP THROUGH THE DAY.
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE DO NOT EXPECT THESE
CLOUDS. WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUDS...ALSO LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
SEVERAL DEGREES IN SE OHIO. BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED MET INTO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HAVE A LITTLE TRAILING VORT MAX COMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PASSES THURSDAY WITH A
WARMER...SUNNY DAY. AGAIN BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS...BLENDED IN BIAS
CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
L/W TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA THIS PERIOD. RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY FRI AS LEAD SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH CROSSES JUST OUT AHEAD OF
SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH IS DRIVEN BY MID STREAM S/W PIVOTING THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRI...DRIVING THE SFC COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STRONG FLOW...FORCING...LAST MINUTE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND LATE DAY TIMING SHOULD SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER...ALTHOUGH
A MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE LEAD SRN STREAM S/W...WHICH BRINGS CLOUDS
AND RAIN ACROSS EARLIER IN THE DAY.
A HIGH OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
INITIALLY...BRINGING ABOUT A FAIR...COOL WEEKEND. A REINFORCING
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND SFC FRONT CROSS MON...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...AND THEN EVEN COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BLENDED IN GFS BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRI AND THEN MAINLY WPC FOR
LOWS AND HIGHS BEYOND THAT...MOST CHANGES TO LOWER VALUES BUT NOT BY
MUCH.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECTING THE RIVER VALLEY FOG TO BE THE SLOWEST TO EVAPORATE E
AND S OF CRW IN THE SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA COAL FIELDS...BUT
SHOULD BE GONE BY 14Z.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT FORMING 14Z TO 17Z OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...PLUS THE CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS. HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS REACHING INTO UNI-PKB-CKB-KEN
CORRIDOR 18Z TO 21Z...THEN LINGERING IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL WV 00Z TO
06Z. COULD NOT RULE OUT A MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM. AN ISOLATED CELL
COULD REACH HTS-CRW CORRIDOR 22Z TUESDAY TO 03Z WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS TO BE MOVING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO 00Z TO
06Z WEDNESDAY...WITH 1 THSD FT BKN TO OVC POSSIBLE AND VSBY NEAR
5 MILES IN HAZE. HOW FAR EAST AND SOUTH THAT ADVECTS IS DIFFICULT
TO FIGURE...WITH 925 MB FLOW QUICKLY TURNING TO EAST BEFORE 06Z
WEDNESDAY. CRW A TOUGH CALL BETWEEN STRATUS AND SURFACE BASED FOG
FORMING 06Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY. THINKING MORE DIURNAL FOG WILL FORM
ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY BE MORE THAN FORECAST
IN THE PKB-CKB-EKN VCNTY. ARRIVAL OF LOWER STRATUS CEILING INTO
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND PKB MAY BE FASTER THAN
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/50
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
618 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS SOUTHEAST...BRUSHES AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE/LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHES OF CLOUDS STILL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT 07Z...OTHERWISE VALLEY
FOG PREVAILS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS MID/UPPER TROF OVER LAKE
HURON AND MICHIGAN DROPPING SOUTHEAST. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT/WIND
SHIFT WAS APPROACHING TOL AND STILL NORTH OF IND.
AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THE MAIN COOLING ALOFT TODAY WILL BE NORTH
OF OUR CWA. FOR EXAMPLE...00Z NAM HAS 500 MB TEMP AT PBZ COOLING
ABOUT 5C TODAY...WHILE CKB ONLY ABOUT A DEG C. SO TIMING THE
POPS...AND HOW FAR SOUTH TO MENTION PCPN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IS ONE CHALLENGE. AFTER DIGESTING THE MODELS...SEE NO
REASON TO CHANGE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS
HTS-CRW VCNTY FOR THIS EVENING. THIS IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN
MOST 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS. FURTHER NNE...HAVE POPS MAXING OUT AROUND
40 TO 50 PCT FOR N CNTRL WV FROM 21Z TODAY TO 01Z WEDNESDAY.
DRY AIR SOUTH OF THAT DISTURBANCE FOR TODAY. RAP SOLUTION TRIES TO
EVEN LOWER DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S. MAYBE ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN LIKE
BKW...BUT DID NOT GO THAT LOW IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS.
MAIN PUSH BEHIND FRONT IS INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO...BEFORE 925 MB WINDS
QUICKLY VEER TO EAST OR DIMINISH TO CALM. THINKING LOW STRATUS WILL
FORM TONIGHT IN SE OHIO BEHIND FRONT. FURTHER SOUTH IN THE COAL
FIELDS OF WV...WAS THINKING JUST THE USUAL DIURNAL LATE NIGHT FOG.
FURTHER NORTH...LINGERING CLOUDS MAY HINDER OR DELAY THE FOG
FORMATION AROUND CKB AND EKN. HTS-CRW CORRIDOR IS A TOUGH CALL
BETWEEN ALL 3 FOR LATE TONIGHT...PATCHES OF CLOUDS LINGERING
OVERNIGHT...STRATUS FORMATION...OR SURFACE BASED FOG FORMING.
OVERALL KEPT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GFS MOS
GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE HEADING EAST OUT TO SEA TO START THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...ANTICIPATE LOTS OF LOW
STRATUS WEDNESDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY BREAKING UP THROUGH THE DAY.
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE DO NOT EXPECT THESE
CLOUDS. WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUDS...ALSO LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
SEVERAL DEGREES IN SE OHIO. BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED MET INTO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HAVE A LITTLE TRAILING VORT MAX COMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PASSES THURSDAY WITH A
WARMER...SUNNY DAY. AGAIN BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS...BLENDED IN BIAS
CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
L/W TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA THIS PERIOD. RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY FRI AS LEAD SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH CROSSES JUST OUT AHEAD OF
SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH IS DRIVEN BY MID STREAM S/W PIVOTING THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRI...DRIVING THE SFC COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STRONG FLOW...FORCING...LAST MINUTE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND LATE DAY TIMING SHOULD SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER...ALTHOUGH
A MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE LEAD SRN STREAM S/W...WHICH BRINGS CLOUDS
AND RAIN ACROSS EARLIER IN THE DAY.
A HIGH OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
INITIALLY...BRINGING ABOUT A FAIR...COOL WEEKEND. A REINFORCING
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND SFC FRONT CROSS MON...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...AND THEN EVEN COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BLENDED IN GFS BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRI AND THEN MAINLY WPC FOR
LOWS AND HIGHS BEYOND THAT...MOST CHANGES TO LOWER VALUES BUT NOT BY
MUCH.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECTING THE RIVER VALLEY FOG TO BE THE SLOWEST TO EVAPORATE E AND
S OF CRW IN THE SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA COAL FIELDS...BUT SHOULD BE
GONE BY 14Z.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT FORMING 14Z TO 17Z OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...PLUS THE CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS. HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS REACHING INTO UNI-PKB-CKB-KEN
CORRIDOR 18Z TO 21Z...THEN LINGERING IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL WV 00Z TO
06Z. COULD NOT RULE OUT A MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM. AN ISOLATED CELL
COULD REACH HTS-CRW CORRIDOR 22Z TUESDAY TO 03Z WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS TO BE MOVING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO 00Z TO
06Z WEDNESDAY...WITH 1 THSD FT BKN TO OVC POSSIBLE AND VSBY NEAR
5 MILES IN HAZE. HOW FAR EAST AND SOUTH THAT ADVECTS IS DIFFICULT
TO FIGURE...WITH 925 MB FLOW QUICKLY TURNING TO EAST BEFORE 06Z
WEDNESDAY. CRW A TOUGH CALL BETWEEN STRATUS AND SURFACE BASED FOG
FORMING 06Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY. THINKING MORE DIURNAL FOG WILL FORM
ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY BE MORE THAN FORECAST
IN THE PKB-CKB-EKN VCNTY. ARRIVAL OF LOWER STRATUS CEILING INTO
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND PKB MAY BE FASTER THAN
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 09/30/14
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
651 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals the next 24 hours.
Light south winds this morning will increase 10 to 15 KT by late
morning, diminishing by early evening. Isolated convection may
develop late this afternoon and evening but is expected to remain
west of the terminals. Stratus may develop across the Hill Country
of Texas late tonight, possibly reaching the southern terminals
towards daybreak. Northward extent and coverage of low clouds
is still in question and will leave out of the TAF`s at this
time.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
SHORT TERM...
/Today and Tonight/
A compact upper low embedded within a broader western CONUS
trough, will lift northeast across the Dakotas today. Westerly
flow aloft within the base of the upper trough will induce a
weak surface trough in the lee of the Rockies today, with the
trough axis extending south across West Texas. Isolated to
scattered convection is expected to develop along and east of
this feature late this afternoon and evening. Some of this activity
may reach far western sections by early evening, with the most
favored area across the western Big Country counties generally west
of a Throckmorton to Sweetwater line. Kept 20 POPs going across this
area this evening and overnight.
Convection should be more isolated farther south, but could move
into far western portions of the Concho Valley and Crockett county
by early evening. It is interesting to note that the RUC and some
of the high resolution models develop convection farther east across
the Big Country and Concho valley during peak heating. While this
can`t be ruled out entirely, due to minimal CAP and a convective
temperature around 90 degrees, the lack of any surface feature will
preclude mentioning POPs at this time. The thermal ridge will be a
bit stronger and farther east today, which will result in afternoon
highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Lows tonight will be
mainly in the upper 60s.
LONG TERM...
/Wednesday through Monday/
The main concern in the extended forecast is the potential for
showers and thunderstorms in association with a cold front, followed
by cooler temperatures. Highs on Wednesday will be above seasonal
normals, generally in the lower to mid 90s. The NAM is indicating
some convergence along a surface trough, mainly across the western
Big Country, during the late afternoon/evening hours Wednesday,
resulting in isolated showers and thunderstorms. Slight chance PoPs
were included across the western Big Country for this time frame.
An upper level trough will move across The Rockies Wednesday, then
across the Plains Thursday. This will send a cold front through West
Central Texas during the day Thursday, clearing the area by early
evening. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible along the front, mainly across the southern and eastern
half of the area, where better moisture will reside. Only minor
tweaks were made to the current PoPs, with the best chance across
the Northwest Hill Country. Cooler, near seasonal, temperatures are
forecast behind the front on Friday and Saturday, with highs in the
low to mid 80s, and overnight lows in the 50s to near 60. A slow
warm up will ensue Sunday through early next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 89 69 91 71 87 / 10 10 10 20 20
San Angelo 91 69 92 72 88 / 5 10 5 10 20
Junction 88 67 91 73 90 / 0 5 5 10 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
648 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.AVIATION...
BEST CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THUNDER CHANCES DEVELOPING JUST EAST
OF KLBB EARLY THIS EVENING BUT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL. BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDER AT KCDS WERE A PROB30 GROUP WAS ADDED. VFR
OTHERWISE WILL DOMINATE. LOW CHANCE FOR CG CIGS AROUND KCDS TO
LOWER TO NEAR MVFR LEVELS THIS EVENING. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
SHORT TERM...
A MOISTURE PLUME WAS PULLING UP INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS REGION
THIS MORNING FROM THE TROPICAL NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN...WHILE AN
UPPER LOW WAS SPINNING OFF INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A TRAILING
IMPULSE EJECTING THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO MAY BE IN TANDEM WITH
A WEAKER IMPULSE CROSSING THE MOIST PLUME OVER WEST TEXAS. ISOLATED
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WERE CROSSING THE SOUTH PLAINS...HEADING INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT LIFT IS
DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY IN THIS PATTERN...WE EXPECT TO REMAIN WITHIN
THE MOIST PLUME THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SUBJECT TO AT LEAST WEAK
FORCING FROM THE TRAILING SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. MAJORITY
OF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BREAK THUNDERSTORMS OUT NEAR OR JUST EAST
OF THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE CONVERGENCE TIGHTENS A DRYLINE WITH POTENTIAL
SURFACE DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE LOWER OR EVEN MIDDLE 60S LYING JUST
TO THE EAST. STILL SOME CONCERN OVER POSSIBLE ERRORS IN MODEL
DEPICTION OF SURFACE DEWPOINT STRUCTURE...BUT OVERNIGHT TRENDS IN
WRF/NAM AND RAP SEEM TO GIVE SOME CREDENCE TO THE HIGHER MOISTURE
LEVELS. AND THIS WOULD GENERATE CONVECTIVE ENERGY UP TO 2500 JOULES
PER KILOGRAM WITH MODEST SHEAR OF 25-30 KNOTS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW HEFTY STORMS IN THIS AREA LATER TODAY. WE HAVE EDGED
PREVIOUS THUNDER CHANCES SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST FOR
LATER TODAY WHILE RETAINING BULK OF PREVIOUS FORECAST. WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON....FAVORED A CONSALL/
CONSRAW ENSEMBLE APPROACH A NOTCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD DOMINATES THE WEATHER
PATTERN.
A COLD FRONT/RETREATING DRYLINE MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH IS POSITIVELY TILTED AS
IT BARRELS OUT ONTO THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY. FURTHERMORE...THE
TIMING OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS NOT GREAT. A BULK OF THE LARGE SCALE
LIFT WILL NOT SPREAD OVER THE AREA UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. WE WILL
STILL SEE A GOOD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS UNTIL THIS POINT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HANG ON TO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EAST
OF THE DRYLINE. BUT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER THAN TODAY.
THE COLD FRONT FROM THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUNCH THROUGH ON
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WILL NOT PLOW
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON LEAVING POSSIBLE STORM CHANCES IN THIS AREA. AFTER THE
COLD FRONT AND TROUGH ON THURSDAY...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ENTER
THE REGION WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN US. A WEAK SHORT WAVE ON
SUNDAY WILL HAVE LITTLE CONSEQUENCE ON ANY WEATHER IMPACTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL IN THE MORNING WITH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS THE COOLEST DIPPING DOWN INTO THE 40S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 80 54 83 52 71 / 10 0 0 0 0
TULIA 83 57 86 55 73 / 10 20 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 83 58 86 55 73 / 20 20 10 10 10
LEVELLAND 84 59 86 56 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 84 60 87 56 75 / 20 20 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 85 60 87 57 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 85 59 88 57 77 / 20 10 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 88 64 93 58 78 / 20 30 20 20 10
SPUR 86 62 91 64 81 / 20 30 10 20 10
ASPERMONT 89 67 93 69 85 / 20 20 20 20 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
630 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE KBRO
TERMINAL AND CEILINGS HAVE LOWER BETWEEN IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS MFE AND HRL. THESE VISIBILITIES WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING BY MID MORNING. THE WEAK LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING
SLOWLY NORTH INTO CRP AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA WILL ENHANCE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING HOURS AND VEER SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LATEST SATELLITE AND
WATER VAPOR OBSERVATIONS SHOW RIDGE MIGRATING EASTWARD AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY.
THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH THE HIGH PRESSURE EAST AND DEEPENS THE LEE
SIDE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS EXTENDING INTO THE CWA GRADUALLY
INCREASING WINDS BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
SOUTHERN HIDALGO COUNTY AND UNDERNEATH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DEPICTED OVER THE AREA WITH 00Z KBRO SOUNDING SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE
CONCENTRATED UP TO 800 MB. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ONLY REACH 1.72
INCHES AND THAT IS DUE TO THE DRY MID LEVEL AIR MOVING IN WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS OF 8Z...RADAR SHOWS SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT FAVORING NORTHERN KENEDY COUNTY AND EASTERN HIDALGO AND
CAMERON AND IT IS MAINLY RAP RAP AROUND THE WEAK LOW/MCV. THE CONVECTION
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND MOVE INTO
BROOKS COUNTY BY MID DAY AS THE WEAK LOW MOVES FURTHER INLAND BEFORE
IT GETS TAKEN BY THE MID TO UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND THE GULF WATERS LATE
TODAY INTO WED. LEFT INHERITED 10 PERCENT AS AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE MOST PART
TODAY WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOW CIGS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND CLOSE TO 90S ALONG
THE RIVER OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES. TONIGHT THE DRY AIR WILL LOWER
THE CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA SO LEAN TOWARDS 10 POPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AS THE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIGS SOUTH WEDNESDAY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS A BIT RETURNING SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS
THE CWA ALLOWING FOR THAT WEAK LOW TO DISSIPATE. SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WITH MORE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
EXPECTED. LOW CHANCE OF RAIN AND LOW AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS TO RETURN TO THE 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS IN
THE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION ALONG THE COAST. LOW CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
REMAIN OVER THE GULF WATERS AS DRY AIR GRADUALLY DIMINISHES ANY
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA. TODAY DUE TO THE LIGHT TO
VARIABLE WINDS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE LINGERING AROUND THE
AREA WILL ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG TO
DEVELOP. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE WITH DAY TIME HEATING IN THE
MORNING HOUR.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...500MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. THURSDAY BRINGING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS THURS AFTERNOON. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRI AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE RGV FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST MEXICO AND
STALLS AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL ACROSS NORTHERN TAMAULIAPAS.
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO SOUTH TX
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS EAST TX
SATURDAY MOVES EASTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE AS THE WEAK LOW KEEPS SPINNING OVER THE AREA
PRODUCING ERRATIC WINDS BETWEEN 10 T 15 KNOTS. THIS LOW IS HELPING
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AT THIS TIME AND DO EXPECT THE SAME PATTERN
TO CONTINUE TODAY AND IMPROVE WEDNESDAY. THE SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SCA BUT A SCEC IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRI
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
FROM THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
67/60
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1021 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.UPDATE...
LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER
WILL PERSIST IN THE EAST WITH SOME AFTERNOON CLEARING TO SCATTERED
OR BROKEN IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CWA. EXPECTING CLOUDS TO
FILL IN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WED MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
WILL HANG ON TO STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF TODAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE EAST. SOME AREAS MIGHT HANG ON TO MVFR CONDITIONS INTO
WEDNESDAY. WILL EVALUATE 12Z GUIDANCE AND ADJUST TAFS ACCORDINGLY.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE STATE TODAY THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT
BETWEEN DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
ANOTHER LIFTING ALMOST DUE NORTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS FROM WRN
NEBRASKA.
CLOUD COVER THE BIG PROBLEM TODAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION TRAPPING
MOISTURE UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. NAM KEEPS CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF A DELLS...MADISON TO JANESVILLE
LINE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT MID-MORNING TO THE
WEST. GFS KEEPS EASTERN THIRD UNDER THE CLOUDS...WITH HRRR HOLDING
LOW CLOUDS JUST ALONG THE LAKE AFTER 17Z. WILL TREND CLOUDS WITH A
BLEND...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION EASES LATER THIS MORNING WITH A SLIGHT
UPWARD TREND IN 925 MB TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.
MARGINAL 850 MB/LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL DEVELOPING SOME
SPRINKLES ALONG THE LAKE FROM SRN MILWAUKEE COUNTY SOUTH ON MKE TDWR
BUT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH AS 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE LATER THIS
MORNING.
CLOUDS AND COOLEST 925 MB TEMPS KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
NORTHEAST...RISING TO THE LOWER 60S SW WITH THE PROSPECT OF SOME
SUNSHINE.
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
MODELS KEEP 700 MB OMEGA ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER WITH BETTER
FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AS FORECAST AREA
REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH. WILL NOT BRING
POPS INTO CWA THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND EXPECTED
REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S
EAST...WITH A BIT MORE MIXING AND WARMER 925 MB TEMPS HOLDING LOWS
IN THE MID 40S WEST.
LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
FLOW WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE U.S.. AN AMPLE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE WILL BE TAPPED FOR THIS SYSTEM. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES UP TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WHICH IS VERY HIGH FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
THE FIRST WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN WI ON
WED...BUT LESS CONFIDENCE ABOUT ENOUGH FORCING OR MOISTURE WITH THIS
INITIAL ROUND TO ALLOW FOR PRECIP. THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL ARRIVE THU
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE FORCING AND STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
CAPE SHOULD BE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND ALLOW FOR THUNDER. THE NAM
SUGGESTS A BREEZY DAY ON THU GIVEN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...
WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE MORE RESERVED. I LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER
WINDS GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH SUN
WILL PEEK THROUGH WHILE SOUTHERN WI IS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THU
AFTERNOON OR IF THE RAIN WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER. THERE IS FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THU
EVENING...SO I KEPT TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX IS
EXPECTED TO BARREL THROUGH SOUTHERN WI FRI MORNING. THEN THE UPPER
TROUGH COULD HANG AROUND THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
IT IS LOOKING LIKE A COOL AND CLOUDY WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING. QUESTION
THEN IS WHEN/IF DECK SCATTERS OUT/LIFTS TO VFR. ALL GUIDANCE IS TOO
LOW WITH CURRENT STRATUS DECK BUT LEANING TOWARD MORE OPTIMISTIC
GFS/HRRR WHICH WILL SCATTER OUT AT KMSN AROUND 16Z-17Z...AND EASTERN
TAF SITES IN THE MID-AFTERNOON WHERE MOISTURE OFF THE LAKE WILL SLOW
IMPROVEMENT. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH HIGH NOSING DOWN INTO REGION. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG POTENTIAL EAST AS ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS
LAKE MOISTURE INLAND.
MARINE... CURRENT END TIME FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD AS
WINDS ARE SLOWLY LOWERING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO EASE AS HIGH
NOSES INTO REGION. WAVES SHOULD BE 4 FEET OR LESS BY 18Z.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SM/DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AT THE PRESENT TIME. THE
RAP AND HRRR MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING A ROUND TO SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL
MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE SAN JUANS
AND NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS.
OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AFTER PASSAGE OF
THE SHORT WAVE...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN TO THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S. WILL KEEP THE FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT THAT HAS
BEEN IN EFFECT GOING OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO...BUT THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE
REGION COULD ALSO PICKUP ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES AROUND WHERE
THEY WERE TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
THE FINAL SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE STATE AFTER THAT. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING AND WARMING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WEATHER WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
EVENTUALLY WARMING TO ALMOST 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT HAVE ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS ACROSS EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES AFTER ABOUT
01Z. TAFS WILL MENTION VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS AFER 01Z. ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER THE STATE TOMORROW WILL
LIKELY GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ069>071.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...DANKERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1058 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH GUSTY WINDS IN/NEAR THE FRONT RANGE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN BORDER AREA. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE CONFINED TO THOSE AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 50 MPH EXPECTED ABOVE TIMBERLINE WITH 30 TO 40
MPH GUSTS NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER. HOWEVER...THEY WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AS CROSS MOUNTAIN
COMPONENT EASES. MEANWHILE...WITH INCREASED MIXING WE DO EXPECT
CHANNELS OF WESTERLY WINDS TO SPREAD ONTO THE PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME SOME LOCATIONS COULD REMAIN EASTERLY IN THIS CURRENT WEATHER
SCENARIO SINCE STRONGEST DOWNWARD FORCING IS PUSHING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD SOME LOW POPS ON THE PLAINS BY THIS EVENING
AS LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A BIT OF CAPE AND ENOUGH HEATING
TODAY TO SUFFICIENTLY MIX OUT STABLE LAYER. IN ADDITION...THE WEAK
WAVE MOVING ACROSS UTAH MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT COOLING TO ALLOW A
FEW SHOWERS TO SPREAD ONTO THE PLAINS. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS FOR OROGRAPHICS COMBINING WITH WEAK LIFT THROUGH
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
DEEP UPPER AIR CYCLONE CENTERED OVER EXTREME NWRN NEBRASKA AT
THIS HOUR WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACRS
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND THEN UP OVER MANITOBA LATER TODAY.
STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS DEPARTING LOW
PRES SYSTEM WAS NOW OVER COLORADO. NAM AND RAP QG VERT VELOCITY
FIELDS AND ON H2O VAPOR SAT IMAGERY NICELY REVEAL THIS SINKING.
STABILIZATION OF THE MTN TOP LAYER PAST FEW HOURS HAS PRODUCE A
STANDING MTN WAVE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...RESULTING IN GUSTY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FRONT RANGE. NAM
AND RAP CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE CROSS BARRIER WINDS IN THE
45-55KT RANGE BY AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...THEN ONLY SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AT 15Z. WIND SENSORS ATOP THE HIGH RIDGES WERE ALREADY
INDICATING GUSTS IN THE 45-55 MPH RANGE. COULD SEE SOME OF THIS
MOMENTUM SPREADING TO LOWER EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DO NOT SEE WINDS REACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME. FURTHERMORE...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THESE STRONG WINDS
WILL SPREAD OUT ONTO THE NEARBY THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA COULD SEE W-NWLY WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOMENTUM MIXING DOWN
FROM ALOFT.
CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS EAST OF THE MTNS LATER TODAY. CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALSO
RETURN TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE RACING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. QG VV REVERSE
AND GO POSITIVE THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS NEXT WAVE OF MOISTURE AND
ENERGY NEARS. COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS
IN THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS BY MID- TO LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL
WILL HOOVER AROUND 11 THSND FT TODAY...AND DROP TO AROUND 9500 FT
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
BY EVENING SKIES SHOULD ALSO FILL WITH CLOUDS EAST OF THE MTNS AS
THIS WEAK PERTABATION PASSES BY...THEN PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
WITH ITS DEPARTURE. PCPN IS NOT ANTICIPATED THRU 12Z/WED EAST OF
THE MTNS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH INCREASING
NORTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. QG FIELDS SHOWING INCREASING ASCENT
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...PEAKING OVER THE FRONT RANGE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND FURTHER EAST ON THE PLAINS DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON TIMING WITH THIS TROF. GIVEN
THE FRONT AND FORCING ALOFT WILL BUMP POPS UP FURTHER TO LIKELY
OVER MOST SECTIONS DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
TROF IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE SO SHOWERS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIP DURATION WILL BE IN THE 3-6
HOUR RANGE. THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE MOUNTAINS.
FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THERE WILL BE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND
AS COLORADO WILL BE UNDER A MODERATE...NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
WIND DIRECTION FORECAST WILL BE A CHALLENGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH POTENTIAL FOR CHANNELS OF WESTERLY WINDS TO MOVE OFF THE
FOOTHILLS. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE WILL BE SOME DIURNAL
EASTERLIES THAT THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BATTLING THROUGH 00Z.
WEST WINDS COULD GUST TO AROUND 18 KTS WHILE ANY EASTERLIES WILL
BE LIGHTER AROUND 5-10 KTS. AFTER 00Z...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO NORMAL DIURNAL SOUTH/SOUTHEWESTERLIES NEAR 10 KTS.
LOW CHANCE OF A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER 00Z-05Z BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
HIGH ENOUGH FOR VISUAL LANDING CONDITIONS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1031 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE FORTHCOMING. A TRAILING UPPER
DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER COLORADO TODAY
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE ENOUGH STRENGTH TO PRODUCE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PARK AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES LOOK LIKE THEY
WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SHOWERS. THE HRRR MODEL ALSO DEVELOPS A
BAND OF SHOWERS OVER PUEBLO COUNTY AFTER 01Z...BUT THE RAP KEEPS
THE PLAINS DRY. WILL FAVOR THE RAP SOLUTION...SINCE IT APPEARS
THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF DOWNSLOPE SUBSIDENCE ALONG AND EAST
OF THE FOOTHILLS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING AS THE LAST VORT MAX IN THE UPPER
TROUGH ROTATES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TONIGHT WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
WFO BOU WILL BE PROVIDING FULL SERVICE BACKUP FOR US TODAY
STARTING AT APPROXIMATELY 7 AM MDT WHILE WFO PUEBLO UNDERGOES
A MAJOR COMPUTER UPGRADE. WFO PUB SHOULD BE BACK IN CONTROL
BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
...ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES...
SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY HAS BROUGHT A SEASONAL AIR MASS
TO SOUTHERN COLORADO. TODAY WILL BE A SEASONAL FALL DAY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND
MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ABOVE ROUGHLY 10000 FEET TODAY WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH
OR SO POSSIBLE AT PASS LEVEL AND ABOVE.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAINS ONTO THE
PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY IN THE EVENING. BUT THIS WOULD
REALLY BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE. IN GENERAL...MOSTLY
SUNNY OR PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.
CURRENT FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY CONTINUES TO LOOK
GOOD FOR THIS MORNING. THE VALLEY HAS HAD SOME MOISTURE OVER THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS AND TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S UNDER CLEAR SKIES. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 30S.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO NEAR THE DEWPOINTS BY MORNING...WHICH
WOULD MEAN LOWS NEAR FREEZING...NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS...AND THUS
A FROST. THE VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER FROST TONIGHT...SO WILL
GO AHEAD AND HOIST ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY FOR THEN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE LONG RANGE FORECAST WITH LOW ENSEMBLE
SPREADS AND GOOD OPERATIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVE ACROSS COLORADO. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD EAST
INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN THREAT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH 30 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE OUT NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER. MODELS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THE PLAINS. FOR NOW FOLLOWED THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE NAM IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS STORM TRACK AND
KEEPS SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SNOW
LEVELS FALL TO AROUND 10 KFT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY...WITH 60S EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS WILL BE COOL...WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY...AND 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME
AMPLIFIED AND STATIONARY THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER BROAD NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
WARM...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SKIES
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. KALS COULD SEE SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OTHER AREAS WILL SEE LESS WIND.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ069>071.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DANKERS/WFO BOULDER
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...DANKERS/WFO BOULDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
211 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY INTO TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT...EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE DOESN`T FEATURE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. JUST BATTLING THE PLACEMENT OF THE
LOWER CLOUDS THANKS TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH IS WASHING OUT
OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO ERODE, ALBEIT SLOWLY. WHERE
THE SUN HAS BEEN OUT, TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY AROUND 70F. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AFTERNOON HIGHS -- BASICALLY A SLIGHT
LOWERING IN THE CLOUDY AREAS (PITTSFIELD & GLENS FALLS -- I`M
CALLING YOU GUYS OUT) AND A SLIGHT INCREASE AT SOME OF THE MORE
SUNNIER LOCATIONS.
ON THE SHOWER CHANCE PERSPECTIVE THE NEXT 6 HOURS, RELIED MORE ON
THE MESO-MODELS -- SUCH AS THE RAP, HRRR AND LOCALLY RUN WRF
MODELS UP HERE AT NWS BURLINGTON. ALL INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ACROSS CENTRAL NY UP TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE ADIRONDACKS. LATEST
ANALYSIS DOES INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY (LI VALUE NEAR 0 AND CAPE
200-400 J/KG) IN THOSE AREAS. THUS HAVE SOME 15-25% POPS FOR THE
FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED ACTIVITY.
MESO-MODELS ALSO HINTING AT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT AND MOVING WESTWARD THIS EVENING INTO
AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. AT THIS POINT AM
DISCOUNTING THAT DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.
FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT, THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA. AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST IT APPEARS (ACCORDING TO 12Z
GUIDANCE SUITE) THAT IT WILL INTERACT WITH THE DEEPER ATLANTIC
MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RESULT IN THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION. WITH AN OVERALL EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE, THIS MEANS SOME OF THAT WILL ADVECT WESTWARD ACROSS
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT AND INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE THUS
PAINTED IN AN INCREASING TREND OF POPS LATER TONIGHT IN THOSE AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER
OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND TOWARDS NJ AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AND A LINGERING THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SHOWER OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE IT
SHOULD BE RAIN FREE ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE APPROACHING /AND AMPLIFYING/ TROUGH OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DESPITE THE TRANQUIL WEATHER
EXPECTED...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION TO
KEEP MORE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST.
THE UPSTREAM DEEPENING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COMBINATION OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ORIGINATING FROM
THE GULF COULD PROVIDE THE REGION WITH SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN. PER
THE ENSEMBLES...QPF/S BETWEEN 0.50-1.00" ARE EXPECTED. WHILE NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED...THIS WILL BE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL AS PORTIONS
OF THE CATSKILLS...HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...TACONICS AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY ARE IN `D0` PER THE DROUGHT MONITOR /ABNORMALLY
DRY/. WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
FROPA IS EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY MORNING WITH BRISK AND COOLER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. IN FACT...THE DEGREE OF COLDER
AIR ADVECTING IN WILL ACTIVATE LAKE ONTARIO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. PER
TRAJECTORIES...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS THE DACKS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN BROAD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP
OUR PATTERN COOL AND UNSETTLED.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...COMBINATION OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS
(DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS/CEILINGS). SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT WITH SUNSET EXPECT THE LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO BEGIN TO EXPAND WESTWARD AND FILLING IN
THROUGH THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. ANTICIPATE MVFR, IF NOT IFR,
CEILINGS TO BE COMMON AFTER 06Z. MAY EVEN AGAIN SEE FOG DEVELOPING
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AROUND
POU. AT THIS POINT JUST MENTIONED VCSH SINCE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND INTO MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AS WELL. COULD
SEE PRECIPITATION AS FAR NORTH AS ALB AND PSF, BUT KEPT THE
MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT AT THIS TIME SINCE THE CHANCES ARE LOW.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AGAIN, THE IFR CONDITIONS
WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 14/15Z WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY..
18Z WED TO 00Z FRI...MVFR TO LOCAL IFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
00Z FRI TO 12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR
12Z SAT ONWARD...MVFR WITH SHOWERS. STRONG/GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND
LLWS ALSO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.
ANY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. THOUGH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HEAVIER -- PERHAPS 3/4" OR SO --- NO
SIGNIFICANT RESPONSES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS POINT ON AREA RIVERS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...NASH
HYDROLOGY...NASH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1244 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FOR LATER
MONDAY AND INTO NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE MIDDAY UPDATE, WE ADJUSTED SKY COVER ACROSS THE REGION TO
REFLECT THE CLEARING SEEN ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. SOME
SCATTERED CUMULUS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP, THOUGH, AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE BEING MET, AND THIS WILL INCREASE SOME THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WITH REGARDS TO ANY POSSIBLE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LATE-DAY SHOWER ACTIVITY, WE TRIMMED IT BACK SOME
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING, BASED ON HRRR GUIDANCE.
HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ARE STILL CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WERE TWEAKED USING
THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE, AND WE NUDGED MAX TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE
OR TWO IN A FEW SPOTS.
REST OF TODAY...BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IT SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNSHINE VSBY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
SCATTERED CLOUDS. AFTERNOON HEATING DEVELOPS SMALL SHOWERS NW OF
I95 WHICH PROBABLY HAVE A TENDENCY TO DRIFT WEST. IF THERE IS TO
BE ANY THUNDER THIS FAR EAST...IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR
WESTERN EDGE OF OUR FCST AREA WESTERN BERKS INTO THE POCONOS.
OVERALL: TEMPS ABOUT 7F WARMER THAN NORMAL AND THE ENTIRE MONTH OF
SEPTEMBER SHOULD AVERAGE ABOUT 1.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS.
FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...COOL POOL ALOFT SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH 500MB
TEMPS NEAR -15-16C. BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY BE OCCURRING WITH SUBTLE
LIFT FROM BOTH WEAK BUT DEEP ELY MOIST WINDS NORTH OF I78 AND THE
BACKDOOR COOL FRONT CONVERGENCE ZONE DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTHENING
NE FLOW NE OF THE BACKDOOR CF.
ADDITIONALLY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE COOLER BL AIR NE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TEMPS ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL.
FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE UPPER LOW AND WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE EXITING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME SCT SHOWERS...MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY. WE HAVE RETAINED THE CHC POPS FROM EARLIER. THE
POPS DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. TEMPERATURES WED
NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...MOSTLY LOW/MID 70S.
WED NIGHT THRU FRI MORNING...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAYTIME PERIODS AND MOSTLY CLR OVERNIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
AGAIN...NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
FRI AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
CONSISTENT WITH A 6 HR OR SO WINDOW OF QPF CENTERED AROUND FRI
EVENING. WE HAVE UPPER THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE EVENING PERIOD
WITH THE EXTRA CONFID IN MULTIPLE/CONSISTENT TRENDS. PROBABILITIES
FOR THUNDER LOOK LOW AT THIS POINT SO WE WILL HOLD ON THAT...SOME
GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA HOWEVER. TEMPS WILL DROP BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL SAT WITH DECENT COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED AFTER
FROPA.
SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
SUNDAY...BUT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY. LOWS BOTH SAT AND SUN
NIGHTS WILL FEATURE LOW 40S NORTH RANGING TO THE LOW 50S OVER THE
DELMARVA AND METRO PHILADELPHIA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...MOSTLY SCT- BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 TO 5000 FT FOR
ALL SITES WITH A POSSIBLE SHOWER VCNTY KRDG/KABE LATE IN THE DAY.
LIGHT SOUTH WIND TURNING E, REMAINING UNDER 10 KNOTS.
TONIGHT...WIND BECOMING NE AT 5-15 KT AND A DECK OF IFR ST/FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD FROM LONG ISLAND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING SW FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
N OF KPHL.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS WITH SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. E/NE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS.
THURSDAY...MORNING FOG WITH LOCAL LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MOSTLY
VFR. N WIND GUST 15 KT...BECOMING NE LATE.
FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS EAST...THEN VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ATTM.
TODAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AOB 3 FT TODAY WITH THE S-SW WIND
TURNING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST.
TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT LATE AND SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 4 FT BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FT
THROUGH 8AM WEDNESDAY AS I BELIEVE THE GFS WW3 GUIDANCE IS TOO
SOON TOO HIGH.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THRU WED NIGHT: NE FLOW WITH BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS AND SCA
CRITERIA EXPECTED ALONG THE NNJ COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD
TO THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA
HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FORMAL
HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS CONDITIONS WILL JUST MEET
LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH.
THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF A CONTINUING SCA FLAG SEAS ON THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA LATE.
FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AND BUILDING SEAS. SCA CONDITIONS
A GOOD BET BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS LATE.
SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EARLY WITH SCT SHOWERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISHING LATE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLINE
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
255 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
238 PM CDT
PLENTY TO KEEP US BUSY ON THE FORECAST DESK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
CONCERNS BEING CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY RAIN
AND THUNDER POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
THEN FINALLY MUCH COOLER AIR AND SHOWER CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
TONIGHT...
THIS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING 20 TO 30 DEGREES COLDER
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THAN YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS KEPT THE
INVERSION STRONG ESPECIALLY IN LAKE-BORDERING COUNTIES AND STRATUS
HAS ACCORDINGLY BEEN SLOW TO DEPART. SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEAKEN THAT FLOW BUT
ALSO ALLOWING FOR THE INVERSION TO REMAIN AND EVEN STRENGTHEN.
CONFIDENCE IS OVERALL LOW ON SPECIFICS ON CLOUD COVER WITH THE
STRATUS BEING ONLY ABOUT 1000 FT THICK PER AMDAR DATA. WHILE THERE
MAY NOT BE THAT MUCH COVERAGE OF CLOUDS BY SUNDOWN...DO EXPECT
THEREAFTER TO SEE AN INCREASE ALONG WITH A WESTWARD EXPANSION. GIVEN
WHERE CLOUDS ARE NOW ON SATELLITE ALONG WITH A REASONABLE 4KM EMC
WRF SOLUTION OF COLUMN CONDENSATE...WOULD ENVISION CLOUDS TO BECOME
THE MOST WIDESPREAD ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. LATER TONIGHT
AS THE 850-925MB FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY...THE CLEARING LINE MAY CREEP
NORTHWARD. OBVIOUSLY TEMPERATURES WILL HINGE ON CLOUDS QUITE A BIT.
OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE WHERE LOWER 50S ARE
PROBABLE...40S ARE FORECAST BUT CLOUDS CLOUD DICTATE WHETHER NEAR 40
TO THE LOWER 50S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN IS SEEN UPSTREAM WITH MULTIPLE UPPER CYCLONES
AND TROUGHS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND CANADA AND INTO
THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. ONE WELL-DEFINED CYCLONE IS MOVING NEARLY DUE
NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. ITS MOIST CONVEYOR BELT AND
RAIN ENTERING WESTERN IA THIS AFTERNOON WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT BEGIN TO RE-ENHANCE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT DEEPER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE
TROUGH ENTERS THE PLAINS. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH WILL BE
MULTIPLE VORT MAXS...GIVING THIS A NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN INTO FRIDAY IS WHEN A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN
CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
SO AFTER A QUIET DAY WEDNESDAY WE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD CHANCES
OF RAIN EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDER
LAGS SOME AND BECOMES BETTER LATE IN THE NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY.
WHILE IT IS LIKELY THERE WILL BE AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS
IN THE REGION THURSDAY...THE MUCH BETTER SUPPORT IN UPPER
LIFT...DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND EVEN INSTABILITY ARRIVES
THURSDAY EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT ON THE SUITE OF GUIDANCE. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE CONSIDERING THE SLOWING TREND THAT HAS BEEN SEEN
OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS...SOMETHING ALMOST EXPECTED WITH SUCH
AN AMPLIFIED AND DEEPENING SYSTEM. SO HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MOST
AREAS THURSDAY AND DEFINITE THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS LIKELY MORE
FOCUSED PERIODS FOR THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE REFINED IN TIME.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN 18-24H WITH
THIS SYSTEM /AND MAYBE EVEN IN A MUCH SHORTER TIME/ FOR MOST OF THE
AREA DURING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTED BY CIPS AND GEFS
ANALOG COMPOSITES. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING BUT
NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD ISSUES. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO
LOOK TO BE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WHERE A SQUALL LINE IS FAVORED INTO
SOUTHERN IL GIVEN THE SYNOPTICS. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THIS...LIKELY MORE LOOSELY DEFINED...COULD CLIP OUR AREA...AS
MODERATE LOWER AND UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHIFT OVER THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OVERALL THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS LOW.
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THIS REMAINS A CHALLENGING PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT
MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WHICH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE FURTHER STRENGTHENED
BY MULTIPLE UPPER JET MAXS. AS THIS OCCURS...COOLER THAN NORMAL
LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL BE REPLENISHED. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...NAMELY
SHEARED BUT STILL EACH WITH LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE SUPPORTIVE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS...WILL BE SUPPORTED IN THIS PATTERN. IF THESE PASS
OVER THE AREA THEY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WET/CLOUDY/EVEN COOLER
WEATHER. HAVE TRENDED COOLER IN MULTIPLE PERIODS BUT CONFIDENCE IS
GENERALLY LOW ON SPECIFICS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PATCHY FROST MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST IN TIME DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON.
* MVFR CIGS THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS DOWNSTATE IL AND SOUTHERN IN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BROAD AREA OF STRATUS BEHIND WHICH HAS BEGUN TO
OVERTURN IN SOME AREAS ALLOWING SKIES TO SCATTER. THE CHICAGO
TERMINALS REMAIN SOCKED IN UNDER MVFR STRATUS HOWEVER WITH
MOISTURE FROM THE LAKE AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/SPRINKLES EXPECTED
TO KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE CHICAGO TERMINALS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK THROUGH THE
DAY...FROM N/NNE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO NORTHEAST MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. RFD IS EXPECTED TO SEE
SKIES SCATTER OUT FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
MVFR CIGS MAY SPREAD BACK OVERHEAD TONIGHT.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL WIND DIRECTION TRENDS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS STAYING NEAR 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE IN END TIME FOR MVFR WEDNESDAY.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
SOUTHEAST WINDS.
THURSDAY...TSRA AND MVFR LIKELY. SOUTH WINDS.
FRIDAY...LOW CHANCE SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY. GUSTY WEST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
215 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL
CONTINUE DRIFTING EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WEAKENS. WHILE WINDS ARE ABATING SOMEWHAT ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THE
NORTHERLY FETCH IS HOLDING WAVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
LAKE AT 4-6 FT OR HIGHER. TONIGHT THE RIDGE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL PASS OVER THE LAKE THEN PUSH TO THE
EASTERN LAKES THURSDAY. EXPECT A MORE SIGNIFICANT EASING OF THE
WAVES AS THIS OCCURS.
MEANWHILE...SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO VEER TO SOUTHEASTLERLY. THE FIRST LOW IN WESTERN NEBRASKA
WILL LIFT INTO MANITOBA WEDS THEN DEEPEN FURTHER AS IT CONTINUES
TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT IS THIS LOW THAT WILL
EJECT NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATER IN THE
WEEK. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT PASSES THROUGH WISCONSIN
FRIDAY THAN NORTH INTO ONTARIO ON FRIDAY. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS TO
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING LOW...WITH WINDS TO 30 KT
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE LOW ON THURSDAY WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME SURFACING
DUE TO THIS WESTERLY TRACK...BUT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY GALES THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE
WINDS ALOFT SHOW SUPPORT FOR GALES...THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW DEEP THE LOW WILL BE AND HOW FAR EAST IT WILL
BE DURING THIS PERIOD.
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WHICH SHOULD STILL BE STRENGTHENING
NORTH OF THE LAKE...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
GALES...THIS TIME WITH WEST WINDS. THE WIND SUPPORT ALOFT WOULD
SUGGEST JUST BORDERLINE GALE FORCE GUSTS...BUT IT WILL BE A PRETTY
STRONG FRONT AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER
MIXING. FOLLOWING THE FRONT A MODEST GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A CLIPPER-LIKE LOW FOR MONDAY. KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
255 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
A cold front had pushed into southern IL and northeast MO this
afternoon bringing cooler temperatures today. Meanwhile 1022 mb high
pressure north of the Great Lakes was nosing southward into IL and
combined with upper level ridge over IL had decrease the low clouds
by early afternoon leaving patches of stratocumulus clouds along
with a veil of cirrus clouds. Temps at mid afternoon ranged from the
mid 60s over Knox, Stark and Marshall counties where low clouds
still lingered, to upper 70s and lower 80s along and south of
highway 50 in southeast IL.
Upper level ridge axis near the MS river will shift east across IL
and into Indiana by Wed morning while surface high pressure ridge
extends into the Ohio river valley from the Great Lakes region. As
the ridge axis shifts east of IL, ene winds to veer se on Wed as
frontal boundary retreats back north as a warm front over central IL
Wed. Dry conditions expected to prevail through Wed morning with
fair skies. Patchy shallow/ground fog could develop during overnight
due to low level moisture trapped in a strong inversion, but drier
air advecting in today on ne winds with dewpoints slipping into the
upper 40s and lower 50s from I-74 ne to limit fog formation.
Southern and sw areas may have best chance of seeing patchy fog
where higher dewpoints in the upper 50s to around 60F closer to the
frontal boundary. Similar MAV/MET guidance lows tonight have trended
cooler and leaned in that direction for tonights lows in the upper
40s and lower 50s, with mid 50s from Jacksonville sw.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
Big changes on the horizon for Central and Southeast Illinois by the
end of the week as much colder air is expected to push southeast
into the Midwest. Energy in the form of a strong 500mb trough over
Alaska is expected to dive down the west coast of North America and
reinforce a developing longwave trough over the Central U.S. by late
Thursday.
In the meantime, the cold front that pushed through the area last
night is expected to retreat back toward the northeast ahead of the
initial trough developing currently over the Plains. Some questions
remain as to how fast and far the front will be able to push across
the area on Wednesday with the answer having major implications on the
high temperature forecast. The GFS suggests that progress should be
as far as I-74 while the NAM keeps temps below normal with the
boundary remaining sw of the area. The 00z ECMWF is somewhere in
between. SREF from 09z favors the warmer solution and will lean
toward a compromise of the GFS/MAV and the ECMWF.
As the mid-level trough deepens, with 130+ kt jet plunging into it,
on Wednesday Night and Thursday, scattered precip is expect to
develop across the Midwest. BUFkit model soundings suggest some
capping possibly through middle afternoon in the warm sector with
the NAM being the most unstable and loosing the cap by late
afternoon in SW forecast area. In addition the cold front
associated with the main trough is expected to enter western
Illinois during the evening. The speed of the front is fairly
consistent through the operational model suite and has been slowing
with each run set. There should be some reduction in instability as
the evening wears on but dynamics will likely be enough to keep
strong storms going well into the evening along and ahead of the
boundary. At this time it appears there may be some threat of hail
with the storms ahead of the line with straight-line winds being the
primary threat with the actual QLCS.
Much colder air is expected Friday with lingering clouds and showers
as 500mb temps approaching -30C are progged. Would not be surprised
to see near steady temperatures and brisk conditions. Models may
be underplaying winds as is often the case in these type of
situatuions. By Saturday morning 850 mb temps drop blo 0C in all
the operational suite. Clouds and winds should keep reduce the
threat of frost, but would expect at least a few wind protected
locations to have lows into the 30s.
Reinforcing shots of energy move through the trough over the weekend
and into next week. Timing of individual features are difficult
this far out and the models show generally cool and partly to mostly
cloudy conditions but varying timing and chances for precipitation.
Overall heights slowly build early next week, but will generally
reduce precip and introduce only gradual warming given the
uncertainty.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
Shallow layer of stratocumulus clouds 1-2k ft thick dissipating
rapidly over central IL by midday due to strong subsidence from
surface and upper level ridge over IL. Cloud bases lifted to 1500
ft and have recently scattered out over the central IL airports
past hour or two, most recently at western airports of PIA and
SPI. RAP and NAM curule does not show much redevelopment of
cumulus clouds this afternoon so will keep just scattered cumulus
clouds 2-4k ft. Shallow moisture layer will be trapped by strong
inversion overnight and lead to some fog development. For now have
introduced MVFR vsbys from 08-14Z, but could see locally lower
vsbys late tonight/early Wed morning especially at SPI and DEC
where dewpoints a few degrees higher. HRRR model shows stratus
clouds and some fog advecting westward from Lake MI across
northern IL with light east flow and these clouds to stay north of
central IL tonight. Scattered cumulus clouds 4-5k ft to appear
after 15Z/10 am Wed across central IL. NE winds near 10 kts this
afternoon to become light east after sunset and SE near 10 kts
after 15Z Tue as front in southern IL retreats back north across
central IL Wed.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Barker
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
217 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1110 AM CDT
HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GOING FORECAST...MAINLY IN
SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER AND
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING
HOLES DEVELOPING IN THE STRATUS DECK OVER INLAND AREAS DUE TO
DRIER AIR AND STILL RELATIVELY STRONG END OF SEPTEMBER SUN. THESE
AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH A
FEW UPPER 60S IN CENTRAL IL. NEAR THE LAKE...DESPITE SOME DRYING
...COOL NORTH-NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS WRINGING OUT
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES...WHICH GIVEN LITTLE
CHANGE IN CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO HAVE OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE MENTION
IN FAVORED LAKE EFFECT AREAS THROUGH THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM TO BETWEEN 55 AND 60 DEGREES DUE TO PERSISTENT
OVERCAST. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY TO UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR INLAND AREAS NEAR WI
BORDER...AS VISIBLE SATELLITE SUGGESTS STRATUS IS THICKER THERE
AND SOME AREAS INCLUDING RFD ARE STILL IN UPPER 40S AS OF THIS
WRITING.
RC
//PREV DISCUSSION...
332 AM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS
TODAY...AND THEN INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
COLD FRONT NOW SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW STRATUS
HAS MOVED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WHILE TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL
INTO THE 40S AND 50S UNDER A STEADY NORTHEAST WIND. WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS NOW EAST OF THE CWA EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY BUT WITH
THIS STRATUS LIKELY HANGING AROUND FOR SOME TIME THIS MORNING.
GUIDANCE APPEARING TO BE TOO QUICK SCATTERING OUT THESE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING AND TRYING TO INDICATE THERE WILL BE HOLES BY 12Z.
WITH THIS NOT A LIKELY SCENARIO HAVE GONE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH
TRENDS THIS MORNING AND DONT HAVE ANY REAL CLEARING UNTIL LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY OBSERVE A SCATTERING TREND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH AREAS NEAR THE LAKE HOLDING ONTO
THESE CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. DID LOWER HIGH TEMPS AS WELL AS
SLOWED TEMP TREND THIS MORNING...WITH IT POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS IN
FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA NOT MAKING IT OUT OF
THE 50S TODAY.
QUIET BUT COOL NIGHT TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS AND ANY
LINGERING CLOUD COVER COMING OFF THE LAKE PUSHES NORTH INTO
WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING...AND MOST LOCATIONS OBSERVING CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FAIRLY ENERGETIC VORT MAX CURRENTLY
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE NORTH INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE BRIEF TONIGHT AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EAST AND WE QUICKLY TRANSITION TOWARDS A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF WAA GOING INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MADE
MINIMAL CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AS
UNCERTAINTY WITH APPROACHING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD PLAY
INTO THE EXTENT OF WARMING THAT OCCURS.
THE BEST WAA/MOIST ADVECTION WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE WEST FOR MOST
OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT THIS WILL CHANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND
STRENGTHENING LLJ BECOMES ORIENTED TOWARDS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS
COINCIDING WITH FAIRLY ENERGETIC MID LEVEL FLOW...DEVELOPING
PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD BEGIN REACHING MOST LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AFTER THE MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME. DESPITE INCREASING
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INSTABILITY AXIS DOES APPEAR TO STAY
JUST TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH
THIS MAY BE THE CASE...STRENGTHENING LLJ COULD OFFSET ANY LACKING
INSTABILITY AND SO HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER WORDING OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA...WITH THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AREAS LIKELY
OBSERVING BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME AND DO FEEL THERE COULD BE SOME PERIODS
OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL...BUT THIS WONT LIKELY OCCUR UNTIL VERY
LATE IN THE NIGHT AND TOWARDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
BETTER AGREEMENT OBSERVED WITH VARYING MODELS THIS MORNING
REGARDING APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FEATURE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW SHOULD
LIFT RIGHT ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AREA INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN THURSDAY AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. CONTINUED LARGE SCALE SUPPORT DURING THIS PERIOD WILL ALLOW
FOR A WET DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. A SLOWER DEPARTING TREND WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND DID KEEP LIKELY WORDING LONGER INTO THE
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
DURING THIS TIME...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. SO AT THIS TIME...AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED
WITH ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT AM MORE CONCERNED WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY AS THE BEST
OVERALL MOIST ADVECTION OCCURS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON.
* MVFR CIGS THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS DOWNSTATE IL AND SOUTHERN IN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BROAD AREA OF STRATUS BEHIND WHICH HAS BEGUN TO
OVERTURN IN SOME AREAS ALLOWING SKIES TO SCATTER. THE CHICAGO
TERMINALS REMAIN SOCKED IN UNDER MVFR STRATUS HOWEVER WITH
MOISTURE FROM THE LAKE AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/SPRINKLES EXPECTED
TO KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE CHICAGO TERMINALS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK THROUGH THE
DAY...FROM N/NNE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO NORTHEAST MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. RFD IS EXPECTED TO SEE
SKIES SCATTER OUT FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
MVFR CIGS MAY SPREAD BACK OVERHEAD TONIGHT.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL WIND DIRECTION TRENDS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS STAYING NEAR 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE IN END TIME FOR MVFR WEDNESDAY.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
SOUTHEAST WINDS.
THURSDAY...TSRA AND MVFR LIKELY. SOUTH WINDS.
FRIDAY...LOW CHANCE SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY. GUSTY WEST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
215 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL
CONTINUE DRIFTING EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WEAKENS. WHILE WINDS ARE ABATING SOMEWHAT ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THE
NORTHERLY FETCH IS HOLDING WAVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
LAKE AT 4-6 FT OR HIGHER. TONIGHT THE RIDGE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL PASS OVER THE LAKE THEN PUSH TO THE
EASTERN LAKES THURSDAY. EXPECT A MORE SIGNIFICANT EASING OF THE
WAVES AS THIS OCCURS.
MEANWHILE...SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO VEER TO SOUTHEASTLERLY. THE FIRST LOW IN WESTERN NEBRASKA
WILL LIFT INTO MANITOBA WEDS THEN DEEPEN FURTHER AS IT CONTINUES
TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT IS THIS LOW THAT WILL
EJECT NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATER IN THE
WEEK. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT PASSES THROUGH WISCONSIN
FRIDAY THAN NORTH INTO ONTARIO ON FRIDAY. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS TO
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING LOW...WITH WINDS TO 30 KT
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE LOW ON THURSDAY WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME SURFACING
DUE TO THIS WESTERLY TRACK...BUT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY GALES THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE
WINDS ALOFT SHOW SUPPORT FOR GALES...THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW DEEP THE LOW WILL BE AND HOW FAR EAST IT WILL
BE DURING THIS PERIOD.
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WHICH SHOULD STILL BE STRENGTHENING
NORTH OF THE LAKE...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
GALES...THIS TIME WITH WEST WINDS. THE WIND SUPPORT ALOFT WOULD
SUGGEST JUST BORDERLINE GALE FORCE GUSTS...BUT IT WILL BE A PRETTY
STRONG FRONT AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER
MIXING. FOLLOWING THE FRONT A MODEST GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A CLIPPER-LIKE LOW FOR MONDAY. KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1254 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
Updated the forecast earlier this morning to have patchy fog into
midday along and south of a Quincy to Jacksonville to Taylorville
to Robinson line and locally dense this morning from Jacksonville
sw. Also adjusted cloud cover and highs today, with low clouds
getting into southeast IL as they slowly drift south toward
highway 50 from Flora to Olney to Lawrenceville. Cloud bases of
500-1500 ft and even less than 500 feet in southern counties where
fog is present. Pilot reports show cloud deck about 1-2k ft thick
and starting to break up in ne counties late this morning where
drier air has worked in on ne winds as dewpoints slipped into
upper 40s and lower 50s. Low clouds should continue to break up from
the ne and sw with skies becoming partly to mostly sunny during
the afternoon. Temps currently 55-60F except low to mid 60s se of
I-70 and Mount Carmel airport up to 72F and still enjoying sunny
skies. The cold front has pushed just south of CWA with ne winds
6-12 mph and low clouds blanketing much of CWA. Cold front to
weaken as it pushes into southern IL this afternoon/evening and
low clouds to decrease during the afternoon. Highs mostly in the
low to mid 70s over central IL, but to range from 65-70F from I-74
northeast, to the lower 80s along and south of highway 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
Short-term forecast concerns include potential for dense fog across
the southern KILX CWA, as well as, approaching deck of low clouds
across the north. Clear skies/light winds have once again led to
the development of fog early this morning, particularly from the Saint
Louis area eastward across southern Illinois. HRRR shows fog
becoming dense across this area over the next few hours before
dissipating after 8am. So far the fog has not become widespread or
dense, but based on forecast soundings and the HRRR, have included
patchy dense fog south of I-70. Have also issued a Special Weather
Statement to highlight the low visbys.
07z/2am surface analysis shows cold front settling southward into
central Illinois, with a widespread area of low clouds noted to the
north of the boundary across the Great Lakes into north-central
Illinois. Latest IR satellite imagery shows leading edge of clouds
along the I-74 corridor. Main questions today will be how far south
these clouds will push and whether or not they will clear out this
afternoon. Satellite timing tools suggest the clouds will reach a
Rushville to Mattoon line by daybreak, but additional southward
progress appears unlikely as frontal boundary stalls. Will
therefore go with a cloudy forecast across the northern two-thirds
of the CWA this morning, with mostly sunny skies across the far
south. Despite continued northeasterly flow behind the front,
forecast soundings indicate a gradual dissipation of low-level
moisture as the day progresses. Have gone with decreasing clouds
through the afternoon accordingly. Due to the cloud cover and shift
in wind direction, temps will be quite a bit cooler today than in
recent days, with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 60s
along/north of I-74 to around 80 far south.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
Winds will veer to the southeast on Wednesday in response to an
approaching upper wave and its associated cold front. As a result,
temperatures will rise back into the upper 70s and lower 80s. As a
deep upper trough slowly approaches from the west, surface low
pressure is expected to develop over the Southern Plains on
Wednesday then lift northward into the Great Lakes by Thursday
night. Warm-advection showers/thunder will develop ahead of this
system Wednesday night: however, all model guidance keeps any precip
focused mainly across the western half of the CWA. Given this
slowing trend, have removed PoPs for all locations along/east of a
Paris to Effingham line. Further west, will go with likely PoPs
across the Illinois River Valley after midnight. As surface low
deepens and tracks just west of the area on Thursday, strong S/SW
flow will provide one more very warm day with highs in the upper
70s/lower 80s. Showers and thunderstorms will develop in advance of
a slowly approaching cold front, mainly focused across the west.
With strong upper dynamics in place and increasing amounts of
moisture flowing northward from the Gulf of Mexico, a few strong to
severe thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon across
west-central Illinois. Once low lifts into the Great Lakes, front
will get a solid push eastward by Thursday evening. Will go with
categorical PoPs across the board as the boundary interacts with a
moist and moderately unstable environment.
Cold front will push into Indiana by early Friday morning, with
perhaps a few lingering showers across the Wabash River Valley.
Main weather story late in the week will be the sharply cooler
conditions. 850mb temps are progged to drop into the 0 to -2C range
by Saturday morning, supporting daytime highs only in the lower
to middle 60s and overnight lows in the lower 40s this weekend.
Airmass will slowly moderate by early next week, with temperatures
climbing back to around 70 by Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
Shallow layer of stratocumulus clouds 1-2k ft thick dissipating
rapidly over central IL by midday due to strong subsidence from
surface and upper level ridge over IL. Cloud bases lifted to 1500
ft and have recently scattered out over the central IL airports
past hour or two, most recently at western airports of PIA and
SPI. RAP and NAM curule does not show much redevelopment of
cumulus clouds this afternoon so will keep just scattered cumulus
clouds 2-4k ft. Shallow moisture layer will be trapped by strong
inversion overnight and lead to some fog development. For now have
introduced MVFR vsbys from 08-14Z, but could see locally lower
vsbys late tonight/early Wed morning especially at SPI and DEC
where dewpoints a few degrees higher. HRRR model shows stratus
clouds and some fog advecting westward from Lake MI across
northern IL with light east flow and these clouds to stay north of
central IL tonight. Scattered cumulus clouds 4-5k ft to appear
after 15Z/10 am Wed across central IL. NE winds near 10 kts this
afternoon to become light east after sunset and SE near 10 kts
after 15Z Tue as front in southern IL retreats back north across
central IL Wed.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
136 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHER PLAINS WITH CLOSED CENTER OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO AND COULD BE IN LINE TO IMPACT OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM JUST EAST OF KMCK SOUTH
ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALON THE CO/KS STATE LINE.
WITH FRONT STILL OVER PAR OF THE CWA I CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA
WHERE ML CAPE 500-1500 J/KG IS LINGERING. SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED
ANY CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT SO FAR...AND GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY THREAT
REMAINING EAST AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED BY NAM TO PASS OVER CWA TONIGHT
COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER THIS SHOULDNT AMOUNT TO MUCH CONSIDERING LIMITED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. OTHER GUIDANCE IS FAVORING DRY CONDITIONS...SO
DECIDED TO JUST KEEP MINIMAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE 06-12Z
PERIOD. NAM/RAP/SREF HINTING AT STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN
CWA WITH MOISTURE POOLING NEAR FRONTAL ZONE. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE
IN THIS AS MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND COULD LIMIT
FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHIFTING FRONT FURTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY...LIMITING
SEVERE POTENTIAL AND BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. CURRENTLY THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TO BE AS FORCING
INCREASES FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. I
LIMITED 30-40 POPS TO THE LATE AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTHWEST. I KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
DUE TO BUILDING INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST WEAK FORCING BEHIND FRONTAL
ZONE...THOUGH I WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF WE REMAIN DRY UNTIL MAIN
PUSH COMES IN LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH...AS A RESULT THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH AS WELL. AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY IN OUR AREA WILL ALMOST ALL BE ELEVATED WITH ONLY A
SMALL AREA OF WEAK SBCAPE IN THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE EVENING.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL DURING THE EVENING HOURS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS AS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DIMINISHES...POSSIBLY LINGERING IN EASTERN
AREAS INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING BY MID DAY THURSDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A LARGE RIDGE WHICH WILL SLOWLY BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AFTER A BRIEF
COOL DOWN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KGLD. LESS CONFIDENCE
IN CIG/VIS FORECAST AT KMCK WITH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING IFR OR
LESS JUST WEST OF FRONTAL ZONE IN SOUTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA. GUIDANCE
IS NOT VERY CONSISTENT ON THIS FRONT POSITION AND INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD HELP LIMIT ANY LOWER CIGS OR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WILL KEEP VFR AT BOTH TAF SITES AT THIS UPDATE. THERE
COULD ALSO BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA 06-12Z PERIOD AT KMCK
THOUGH COVERAGE IS A QUESTION SO LEFT OUT. OTHER THAN BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS OUT OF THE SW THIS AFTERNOON AT KMCK WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN 10KT OR LESS AT BOTH TERMINALS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1202 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 932 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IS DIGGING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A SMALL, BUT STRONG +90KT UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE IS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. NEAR THE SURFACE, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IS ANCHORED NEAR AND ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO
BORDER. A MODEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S(F) WITH
NEAR 60F IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH A NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING FROM EASTERN COLORADO AT 00Z
TUESDAY INTO NEBRASKA BY 12Z TUESDAY. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IN
THE KINSLEY, STAFFORD, PRATT OR EVEN MEDICINE LODGE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO END BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z BASED ON LATEST HRRR AND RAP.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE ONGOING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND
ADJUST TIMING AS NEEDED. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF FAR
WESTERN KANSAS GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM 00Z TUESDAY
TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. FURTHER EAST/SOUTHEAST NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM EASTERN
OREGON INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY LATE DAY WHICH STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. AS THIS NEXT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF A SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY HAYS TO MEADE. EAST OF
THIS AXIS LATE TODAY THE SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S, CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG,
AND 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS AT 21Z TUESDAY
AND 00Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS IF STORMS DO DEVELOP LATE TODAY A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAIN HAZARD
AT THIS TIME WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM. A COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE
RANGE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY PATCH
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED ABOVE THE
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WEDNESDAY, THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN THROUGH THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTERNOON.
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FIRST ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BE
OBSERVED. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE IN
THIS AREA WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECASTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FORM THE MID 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO MID 80S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK
BORDER. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PLACE WESTERN KANSAS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY INCREASING TO THE
LOWER 80S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS WILL START OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY MORNING INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 50S SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER EDGES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 84 57 81 54 / 40 30 20 30
GCK 82 54 79 51 / 10 10 20 50
EHA 80 51 79 50 / 10 10 10 30
LBL 84 53 81 53 / 30 10 10 20
HYS 81 58 78 53 / 40 30 30 50
P28 85 62 86 60 / 40 30 20 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1148 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014
Updated aviation section only.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 247 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
The main weather system for the short term forecast period still
remains focused on Thursday and Thursday night. Medium range, and
now, short range guidance suggests that the best lift and forcing
shall remain limited to the aforementioned time period. This has
been consistent with the model runs since late last week.
With respect to severe potential, using the operational GFS as a
convective template, the time period between 23z-04z (6 pm - 11 pm
CDT) Friday, inclusive, is supportive of at least isolated to
scattered severe storms. The 0-1km and 0-6km Bulk shear remains
between 20-25 knots and 40 to 45 knots, respectively between 00z
and 06z Friday...with Mixed Layer and Most Unstable layer CAPE
edging into a northeast oriented gradient between 1200-1400 j/kg.
The Day 3 Slight Risk area defined by SPC fits very well with the
area of interest over Southeast Missouri Thursday evening.
At this point in time, suspect that there may be some wind damage
potential (entraining very dry air aloft into marginally favorable
layer lapse rates) with a squall line moving into and off of the
Southeast Missouri foothills between 00-03z Friday. Beyond that
time, low level convergence, originally associated with a surface
wave moving through eastern Missouri at the time, will take most
of the enhanced low level convergence and shear rapidly northeast
out of the area by 06z Friday. Other than this limited severe
weather potential, a broad swatch of 1-1.25 inches of rain will be
the primary activity with the passage of the weather system
Thursday and Thursday night.
In the very near term, fog potential will still be an issue for this
morning. Issued an SPS for locally dense fog once again. All though
the high resolution 3km HRRR continues to overreach on coverage, the
13km RAP and 4km NAM-WRF (NMM version) appear to suggest that
Southeast Illinois could see more widespread fog through daybreak.
The influx of moisture should increase after today will limit the
25-30 degree diurnal swing of temperatures experience during the
last few days. Went slightly above the warmest guidance today for
maximum temperatures. More normal diurnal range of temperatures
can then be expected prior to the development of convection late
night Wednesday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
The pattern will generally be an upper level trof over the east U.S.
with strong flow coming into the CONUS across the Pacific NW, and
some riding over the SW U.S. extending into Mexico. Mainly dry
weather is expected. A cold front will depart the area early Friday
with decreasing chances of showers in the morning. High pressure
will build in, and lead to a cooler Saturday. Not sure how cool
though, as the GFS shows 925-850mb warm advection developing as
early as 12-18z Sat. Temperatures will moderate back to seasonal
norms Sunday-Monday. Will keep an eye on a frontal system the models
advertise Sunday night into early Monday. 00z GFS develops some
convection, however prior runs did not. ECMWF stays generally dry.
Will keep it dry for now and monitor trends.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Tue SEP 30 2014
Under ridging aloft, and with a slack sfc pressure pattern, winds
will be very light and variable for the rest of today and into much
of the night under virtually clear skies. However, the overall trend
for the sfc winds should be to take on an erly component as time
goes on. Greater winds just off the sfc are expected to stir the
boundary layer enough to preclude the formation of significant fog
late in the night.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...CN
Aviation...DB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
623 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE...
MOST OF THE LASTEST MESOSCALE MODELS NOW SHOWING PRECIP ENTERING
THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINE AND THE SEACOAST OF NH AROUND
09Z...AND CONTINUING TO AROUND 18Z. THERE ARE A COUPLE OUTLIERS
SUCH AS THE HRRR WHICH BRINGS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALL THE WAY INTO
CENTRAL NH BY 04Z. FEEL THIS IS SOMEWHAT OVERAGRESSIVE WITH THE
FAST MOVEMENT/TIMING OF THE PRECIP. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED DEW POINT AND CLOUD COVER
GRIDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
PREV DISC... SOME DRIER AIR AND CLEARING NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...OTHERWISE CLOUDS
WERE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS SHOULD FILL BACK IN TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUD AND FOG. THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE EAST WITH
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MAINE BY DAWN. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM MID 40S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW
PIVOTS SOUTHEAST AND SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT
IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD TOMORROW WITH AREAS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER LIKELY STAYING DRY. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60 WITH WARMEST READINGS LIKELY UPPER
CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER GIVEN NO
PRECIPITATION AND THINNING CLOUD COVER.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES
OFFSHORE. WE`LL SEE BROKEN CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING.
LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE
THURSDAY FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW...HOWEVER
IT STALLS DUE TO BLOCKING FARTHER DOWNSTREAM. RESIDUAL WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS STALLED SYSTEM WILL KEEP THINGS MOIST
ALONG THE COAST BUT EXPECT FOG AND PERHAPS DRIZZLE AT THE MOST IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE. A FEW SHOWERS ATTEMPT TO BACK ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
AND MAY REACH AS FAR AS THE MIDCOAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A SPOKE OF
ENERGY/WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS BACK WEST FROM THE COASTAL STORM
AND PROVIDES A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY...AGAIN MAINLY
OFFSHORE.
THE COASTAL LOW FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AS A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
DEEPENS AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS IS A MUCH SHARPER BOUNDARY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
HEAVIER AND TOP AN INCH IN THE HEAVIER CELLS. ANTECEDENT CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDER WITH
-26 C ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE.
COLDER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THIS FRONT AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING...LOWERING TO IFR TONIGHT AND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.
LONG TERM...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP FOG...LOW CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS DRIZZLE AROUND THE COAST AND AS FAR INLAND AS KAUG
THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER ALONG THE MIDCOAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOWER CEILINGS IN HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SOME TSRA EXPECTED
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON...IMPROVING TO VFR WEST TO
EAST.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
ONCE INCREASE BY LATER TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT AND
BUILDING SEAS. AN SCA HAS BEEN REISSUED FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS.
LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BE 5-7 FT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OUTSIDE
THE BAYS AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS THE WATERS. WINDS
MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST NEAR 25 KTS. WE WILL LIKELY ISSUE SMALL
CRAFTS DURING THESE TIMES.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
426 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHARP UPR RDG
EXTENDING FM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY N INTO NW ONTARIO...SUPPORTING
SFC HI PRES JUST N OF LK SUP. ALTHOUGH THE MID TROP IS QUITE DRY...
WITH 12Z H5 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS AS HI AS 45C AT MPX AND QUAD CITIES...
LINGERING LLVL MSTR TO THE S OF THE HI CENTER AND BLO SHARP
SUBSIDENCE INVRN ARND H9-925 CAUSED QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD TO PERSIST
OVER THE UPR LKS THRU THE MRNG. DAYTIME HEATING THAT HAS CAUSED THE
LCL TO RISE THRU THE SLOWLY SINKING INVRN BASE PER FCST SDNGS IS
RESULTING IN STEADY BREAKUP OF THE LO CLD EARLY THIS AFTN. THE LO
CLDS HAVE BEEN MOST RESILIENT OVER THE CENTRAL...WHERE LLVL NE WIND
IS UPSLOPING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY TILTED SHRTWV
IS LIFTING NNEWD THRU THE NRN PLAINS. DESPITE THE MID LVL DRY AIR IN
PLACE...SOME SHOWERS/TS IN THE RATHER NARROW WARM CONVEYOR BELT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ARE MOVING INTO SW MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON CLD TRENDS. FCST
CONCERNS ON WED SHIFT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE
INCRSG SLY FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE E OF SHRTWV MOVING THRU THE
NRN PLAINS INTO SCENTRAL CANADA.
TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE LO CLDS WL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE INTO THE EVNG
WITH THE IMPACTS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...NOCTURNAL COOLING AND
VEERING WINDS TO THE S THAT WL BRING A RETURN OF MOISTER H95-9 AIR
SHOULD RESULT IN MORE LO CLDS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD
BE SOME DRIZZLE OVER THE CENTRAL WHERE EXPECTED SSE WIND WL UPSLOPE
OFF LK MI. THE ONE EXCEPTION WL BE OVER THE W...WHERE THE S WIND WL
DOWNSLOPE AND PREVENT/LIMIT THE REFORMATION OF THE LO CLDS. OTRW...
SOME MID/HI CLDS ON THE ERN FLANK OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR
RIBBON MOVING E THRU WL INVADE THE W OVERNGT. THE COMBINATION OF
LINGERING LO CLDS AND/OR INCRSG SLY FLOW WITH H925 WINDS INCRSG UP
TO 20-30 KTS BY 12Z WED WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. BUT TEMPS
SHOULD STILL FALL INTO THE 30S AT SOME OF THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS
THAT SEE MOCLR SKIES FOR A TIME.
WED...ALTHOUGH THE PASSAGE OF SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING DPVA AND DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WELL TO THE W THRU MANITOBA WL LIMIT THE PCPN
POTENTIAL OVER UPR MI...RATHER NARROW WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON
AND AREA OF H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC AND BAND OF H85-7 FGEN IN
RRQ OF 80KT H3 JET MAX LIFTING NNEWD THRU NW ONTARIO WL BRING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE W IN THE AFTN. CONSIDERING THE STRONG
DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND APPRECIABLE DEEP MOISTENING THAT IS FCST TO
RAISE PWAT NEAR 1.5 INCHES /UP TO 200 PCT OF NORMAL/ BY 00Z THU...HI
LIKELY POPS SEEM APPROPRIATE OVER THE FAR W. ALTHOUGH THE MID LVLS
OVER THE E WL REMAIN DRY...FCST SDNGS INDICATE LO CLDS WL PERSIST
MOST OF THE DAY IN THAT AREA AND LIMIT THE DAYTIME TEMP RECOVERY.
BUT WITH STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW BRINGING A RETURN OF H85 TEMPS AS HI
AS 12-13C...MAX TEMPS WL RISE ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
BY 00Z THURSDAY THE AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH
MOISTURE STREAMING N FROM THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. THE INITIAL
SHORTWAVE WILL BE CROSSING THE CWA. WITH STEADY S WINDS AND 850MB
TEMPS NEAR 11C...EXPECT THE FCST LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S TO
HOLD. WHILE THIS INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE A QUARTER TO
HALF AN INCH OF LIQUID...THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE WHEN THE 500MB LOW SET UP ACROSS MAINLY ONTARIO DIVES
ACROSS MN...AND THE SFC LOW ACROSS MO/IA QUICKLY DEEPENS TO AROUND
998MB ACROSS THE W HALF OF UPPER MI LATE THURSDAY EVENING...AND TO
AROUND 988MB BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY OVER N LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR WINDS
TO RAPIDLY INCREASE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR W UPPER MI
OVERNIGHT.
THE SFC LOW WILL SHIFT UP ACROSS JAMES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALLOWING MUCH COOLER AIR TO SURGE INTO THE REGION. THE GFS
LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST WIND WISE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GALE
FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THROUGH THE E HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TO GRAND MARAIS. WHILE THIS MAY BE POSSIBLE...LESS
FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTIONS OFF THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE NOT BACKING THIS
UP QUITE YET. GALES WILL BE STILL BE POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS
PERIOD...BUT WILL KEEP MORE OF A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE TIME BEING
UNTIL MODELS COME MORE IN LINE. WILL KEEP THE TS POTENTIAL IN
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE...AND STILL
MAINLY KEEPING IT OVER UPPER MI/LAKE MI.
THE SFC LOW WILL NOT EXIT FAST...AND WILL KEEP A TROUGH ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY. THE 500MB LOW WILL SWING ACROSS
UPPER MI FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF -23
TO -29C AT 500MB ROTATING ACROSS UPPER MI AND WI. WE ARE BACK TO
THAT TIME OF YEAR WHERE COOL NIGHTS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS OFF OF THE WARM LAKES WILL HELP PRODUCE
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
THE SFC RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. WITH A LESS FAVORABLE WIND
DIRECTION...THIS SHOULD BE THE DRIEST PERIOD DURING THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WL ALLOW LO CLDS AT SAW AND IWD TO BREAK UP
THIS AFTN WITH A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST THIS EVNG.
ALTHOUGH CMX MAY SEE SOME SC/LOWER CIGS EARLY THIS AFTN ON THE NRN
FRINGE OF SLOWLY DISSIPATING MAIN LO CLD AREA TO THE S...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THERE INTO AT LEAST THIS EVNG. ONCE HI
PRES IN ONTARIO SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE E TNGT AND A LO PRES TROF
APRCHS FM THE W...THE LLVL WINDS WL SHIFT TO A MORE S DIRECTION. IN
THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND THE RETURN OF MOISTER LLVL
AIR...EXPECT LO CLDS/IFR CONDITIONS TO DVLP AT SAW. DOWNSLOPE NATURE
OF THIS LLVL FLOW MAKES THE FCST AN ESPECIALLY TRICKY ONE FOR CMX
AND IWD...SO INCLUDED JUST A SCT DECK FOR NOW. ANY LO CLDS THAT DVLP
TNGT SHOULD DISSIPATE ON WED AT CMX/IWD WITH DAYTIME HEATING...BUT
THESE CLDS WL BE MORE RESILIENT AT SAW EVEN IF THE CIG HGT DOES LIFT
ABV 1K FT INTO THE MVFR RANGE BY NOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
HIGH PRESSURE OF OVER N ONTARIO WILL MOVE E TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN NE WILL LIFT ACROSS S MANITOBA WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
TO HUDSON BAY THURSDAY MORNING. A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL MOVE E...REACHING LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY. A LOW WILL FORM
ALONG THIS TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY THURSDAY EVENING AND THEN
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS INTO N ONTARIO FRIDAY...AND TO HUDSON BAY FRIDAY
NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W PLAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SETTLE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...AS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE HUDSON BAY LOW LINGERS OVER
N ONTARIO. A PERIOD OF NEAR GALES OUT OF THE W-NW WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
353 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHARP UPR RDG
EXTENDING FM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY N INTO NW ONTARIO...SUPPORTING
SFC HI PRES JUST N OF LK SUP. ALTHOUGH THE MID TROP IS QUITE DRY...
WITH 12Z H5 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS AS HI AS 45C AT MPX AND QUAD CITIES...
LINGERING LLVL MSTR TO THE S OF THE HI CENTER AND BLO SHARP
SUBSIDENCE INVRN ARND H9-925 CAUSED QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD TO PERSIST
OVER THE UPR LKS THRU THE MRNG. DAYTIME HEATING THAT HAS CAUSED THE
LCL TO RISE THRU THE SLOWLY SINKING INVRN BASE PER FCST SDNGS IS
RESULTING IN STEADY BREAKUP OF THE LO CLD EARLY THIS AFTN. THE LO
CLDS HAVE BEEN MOST RESILIENT OVER THE CENTRAL...WHERE LLVL NE WIND
IS UPSLOPING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY TILTED SHRTWV
IS LIFTING NNEWD THRU THE NRN PLAINS. DESPITE THE MID LVL DRY AIR IN
PLACE...SOME SHOWERS/TS IN THE RATHER NARROW WARM CONVEYOR BELT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ARE MOVING INTO SW MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON CLD TRENDS. FCST
CONCERNS ON WED SHIFT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE
INCRSG SLY FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE E OF SHRTWV MOVING THRU THE
NRN PLAINS INTO SCENTRAL CANADA.
TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE LO CLDS WL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE INTO THE EVNG
WITH THE IMPACTS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...NOCTURNAL COOLING AND
VEERING WINDS TO THE S THAT WL BRING A RETURN OF MOISTER H95-9 AIR
SHOULD RESULT IN MORE LO CLDS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD
BE SOME DRIZZLE OVER THE CENTRAL WHERE EXPECTED SSE WIND WL UPSLOPE
OFF LK MI. THE ONE EXCEPTION WL BE OVER THE W...WHERE THE S WIND WL
DOWNSLOPE AND PREVENT/LIMIT THE REFORMATION OF THE LO CLDS. OTRW...
SOME MID/HI CLDS ON THE ERN FLANK OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR
RIBBON MOVING E THRU WL INVADE THE W OVERNGT. THE COMBINATION OF
LINGERING LO CLDS AND/OR INCRSG SLY FLOW WITH H925 WINDS INCRSG UP
TO 20-30 KTS BY 12Z WED WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. BUT TEMPS
SHOULD STILL FALL INTO THE 30S AT SOME OF THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS
THAT SEE MOCLR SKIES FOR A TIME.
WED...ALTHOUGH THE PASSAGE OF SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING DPVA AND DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WELL TO THE W THRU MANITOBA WL LIMIT THE PCPN
POTENTIAL OVER UPR MI...RATHER NARROW WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON
AND AREA OF H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC AND BAND OF H85-7 FGEN IN
RRQ OF 80KT H3 JET MAX LIFTING NNEWD THRU NW ONTARIO WL BRING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE W IN THE AFTN. CONSIDERING THE STRONG
DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND APPRECIABLE DEEP MOISTENING THAT IS FCST TO
RAISE PWAT NEAR 1.5 INCHES /UP TO 200 PCT OF NORMAL/ BY 00Z THU...HI
LIKELY POPS SEEM APPROPRIATE OVER THE FAR W. ALTHOUGH THE MID LVLS
OVER THE E WL REMAIN DRY...FCST SDNGS INDICATE LO CLDS WL PERSIST
MOST OF THE DAY IN THAT AREA AND LIMIT THE DAYTIME TEMP RECOVERY.
BUT WITH STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW BRINGING A RETURN OF H85 TEMPS AS HI
AS 12-13C...MAX TEMPS WL RISE ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
ATTENTION IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT 12Z WED INTO THE CWA AT 00Z SAT
WHILE DEEPENING AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED...AS IS GENERALLY
AGREED ON BY NWP. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN LOOKS TO CLOSE OFF INTO A
LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRI NIGHT...BUT MODEL
DISAGREEMENT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AT THIS POINT WITH THE STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT DOES INCREASE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON WITH MODELS SHOWING A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS.
ONE THING THAT CAN BE SAID WITH CERTAINTY IS THAT THE PATTERN WILL
BE MORE ACTIVE THAN LAST WEEK.
SHOWERS /POSSIBLY WITH SOME THUNDER/ IS STILL EXPECTED TO VERY
GRADUALLY MOVE W TO E ACROSS THE CWA WED THROUGH THU DUE TO
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT. MAIN ISSUE
TO POINT OUT FROM A CONFIDENCE STANDPOINT IS THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL PROBABLY EJECT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE W /AS SHOWN BY
NWP/...BUT THE MODELS DO NO AGREE ON THE STRENGTH/TIMING/TRACK OF
ANY ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE
PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP AND/OR GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE...BUT
ACCURATELY TIMING THOSE OUT IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 60S LOOK TO MAKE A RETURN ON WED AND THU DUE TO THE WAA AND
RESULTING WARM AIRMASS /850MB TEMPS OF 10-13C/.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE UPPER TROUGH TEARS INTO THE AREA THU
NIGHT AND FRI...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WITH IT. AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE 850MB TEMPS BELOW 0C BY THE END OF
THE DAY FRI. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND MAGNITUDE OF
RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS AS IT MOVES IN...PERIODS OF PRECIP DOES LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET THU NIGHT INTO FRI...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SFC LOW LEVEL FEATURES. SOME
MODELS /MAINLY THE GFS AND NAM/ SHOW A DEEPER SFC LOW TRANSITING THE
CWA THU NIGHT INTO FRI /AS THE GFS HAS SHOWN VARIOUS ITERATIONS OF
FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS/. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...GALES WOULD LIKELY
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WHILE THIS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO ADD
THIS SCENARIO TO THE FORECAST. PRECIP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT IS A BIT
MORE CERTAIN SINCE IT WILL BE LESS DUE TO A SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AND MORE
TO SUB ZERO 850MB TEMPS AND WNW-NW LOW LEVEL WINDS LEADING TO LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. IN FACT...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW
COLD THE AIRMASS IS...SNOW IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE PICTURE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS UNLIKELY /ESPECIALLY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS/. DID ADD SNOW CHANCES TO THE FORECAST
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN UPPER MI FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AND FOR
PORTIONS OF NWRN AND NERN UPPER MI SAT NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS BY SATURDAY
LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S....WITH LOW TEMPS SAT NIGHT
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
GOING COMPLETELY WITH MODEL CONSENSUS IDEA SUN AND MON GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WL ALLOW LO CLDS AT SAW AND IWD TO BREAK UP
THIS AFTN WITH A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST THIS EVNG.
ALTHOUGH CMX MAY SEE SOME SC/LOWER CIGS EARLY THIS AFTN ON THE NRN
FRINGE OF SLOWLY DISSIPATING MAIN LO CLD AREA TO THE S...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THERE INTO AT LEAST THIS EVNG. ONCE HI
PRES IN ONTARIO SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE E TNGT AND A LO PRES TROF
APRCHS FM THE W...THE LLVL WINDS WL SHIFT TO A MORE S DIRECTION. IN
THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND THE RETURN OF MOISTER LLVL
AIR...EXPECT LO CLDS/IFR CONDITIONS TO DVLP AT SAW. DOWNSLOPE NATURE
OF THIS LLVL FLOW MAKES THE FCST AN ESPECIALLY TRICKY ONE FOR CMX
AND IWD...SO INCLUDED JUST A SCT DECK FOR NOW. ANY LO CLDS THAT DVLP
TNGT SHOULD DISSIPATE ON WED AT CMX/IWD WITH DAYTIME HEATING...BUT
THESE CLDS WL BE MORE RESILIENT AT SAW EVEN IF THE CIG HGT DOES LIFT
ABV 1K FT INTO THE MVFR RANGE BY NOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
HIGH PRESSURE OF OVER N ONTARIO WILL MOVE E TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN NE WILL LIFT ACROSS S MANITOBA WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
TO HUDSON BAY THURSDAY MORNING. A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL MOVE E...REACHING LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY. A LOW WILL FORM
ALONG THIS TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY THURSDAY EVENING AND THEN
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS INTO N ONTARIO FRIDAY...AND TO HUDSON BAY FRIDAY
NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W PLAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SETTLE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...AS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE HUDSON BAY LOW LINGERS OVER
N ONTARIO. A PERIOD OF NEAR GALES OUT OF THE W-NW WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
312 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHARP UPR RDG
EXTENDING FM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY N INTO NW ONTARIO...SUPPORTING
SFC HI PRES JUST N OF LK SUP. ALTHOUGH THE MID TROP IS QUITE DRY...
WITH 12Z H5 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS AS HI AS 45C AT MPX AND QUAD CITIES...
LINGERING LLVL MSTR TO THE S OF THE HI CENTER AND BLO SHARP
SUBSIDENCE INVRN ARND H9-925 CAUSED QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD TO PERSIST
OVER THE UPR LKS THRU THE MRNG. DAYTIME HEATING THAT HAS CAUSED THE
LCL TO RISE THRU THE SLOWLY SINKING INVRN BASE PER FCST SDNGS IS
RESULTING IN STEADY BREAKUP OF THE LO CLD EARLY THIS AFTN. THE LO
CLDS HAVE BEEN MOST RESILIENT OVER THE CENTRAL...WHERE LLVL NE WIND
IS UPSLOPING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY TILTED SHRTWV
IS LIFTING NNEWD THRU THE NRN PLAINS. DESPITE THE MID LVL DRY AIR IN
PLACE...SOME SHOWERS/TS IN THE RATHER NARROW WARM CONVEYOR BELT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ARE MOVING INTO SW MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON CLD TRENDS. FCST
CONCERNS ON WED SHIFT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE
INCRSG SLY FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE E OF SHRTWV MOVING THRU THE
NRN PLAINS INTO SCENTRAL CANADA.
TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE LO CLDS WL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE INTO THE EVNG
WITH THE IMPACTS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...NOCTURNAL COOLING AND
VEERING WINDS TO THE S THAT WL BRING A RETURN OF MOISTER H95-9 AIR
SHOULD RESULT IN MORE LO CLDS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD
BE SOME DRIZZLE OVER THE CENTRAL WHERE EXPECTED SSE WIND WL UPSLOPE
OFF LK MI. THE ONE EXCEPTION WL BE OVER THE W...WHERE THE S WIND WL
DOWNSLOPE AND PREVENT/LIMIT THE REFORMATION OF THE LO CLDS. OTRW...
SOME MID/HI CLDS ON THE ERN FLANK OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR
RIBBON MOVING E THRU WL INVADE THE W OVERNGT. THE COMBINATION OF
LINGERING LO CLDS AND/OR INCRSG SLY FLOW WITH H925 WINDS INCRSG UP
TO 20-30 KTS BY 12Z WED WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. BUT TEMPS
SHOULD STILL FALL INTO THE 30S AT SOME OF THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS
THAT SEE MOCLR SKIES FOR A TIME.
WED...ALTHOUGH THE PASSAGE OF SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING DPVA AND DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WELL TO THE W THRU MANITOBA WL LIMIT THE PCPN
POTENTIAL OVER UPR MI...RATHER NARROW WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON
AND AREA OF H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC AND BAND OF H85-7 FGEN IN
RRQ OF 80KT H3 JET MAX LIFTING NNEWD THRU NW ONTARIO WL BRING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE W IN THE AFTN. CONSIDERING THE STRONG
DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND APPRECIABLE DEEP MOISTENING THAT IS FCST TO
RAISE PWAT NEAR 1.5 INCHES /UP TO 200 PCT OF NORMAL/ BY 00Z THU...HI
LIKELY POPS SEEM APPROPRIATE OVER THE FAR W. ALTHOUGH THE MID LVLS
OVER THE E WL REMAIN DRY...FCST SDNGS INDICATE LO CLDS WL PERSIST
MOST OF THE DAY IN THAT AREA AND LIMIT THE DAYTIME TEMP RECOVERY.
BUT WITH STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW BRINGING A RETURN OF H85 TEMPS AS HI
AS 12-13C...MAX TEMPS WL RISE ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
ATTENTION IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT 12Z WED INTO THE CWA AT 00Z SAT
WHILE DEEPENING AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED...AS IS GENERALLY
AGREED ON BY NWP. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN LOOKS TO CLOSE OFF INTO A
LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRI NIGHT...BUT MODEL
DISAGREEMENT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AT THIS POINT WITH THE STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT DOES INCREASE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON WITH MODELS SHOWING A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS.
ONE THING THAT CAN BE SAID WITH CERTAINTY IS THAT THE PATTERN WILL
BE MORE ACTIVE THAN LAST WEEK.
SHOWERS /POSSIBLY WITH SOME THUNDER/ IS STILL EXPECTED TO VERY
GRADUALLY MOVE W TO E ACROSS THE CWA WED THROUGH THU DUE TO
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT. MAIN ISSUE
TO POINT OUT FROM A CONFIDENCE STANDPOINT IS THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL PROBABLY EJECT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE W /AS SHOWN BY
NWP/...BUT THE MODELS DO NO AGREE ON THE STRENGTH/TIMING/TRACK OF
ANY ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE
PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP AND/OR GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE...BUT
ACCURATELY TIMING THOSE OUT IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 60S LOOK TO MAKE A RETURN ON WED AND THU DUE TO THE WAA AND
RESULTING WARM AIRMASS /850MB TEMPS OF 10-13C/.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE UPPER TROUGH TEARS INTO THE AREA THU
NIGHT AND FRI...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WITH IT. AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE 850MB TEMPS BELOW 0C BY THE END OF
THE DAY FRI. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND MAGNITUDE OF
RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS AS IT MOVES IN...PERIODS OF PRECIP DOES LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET THU NIGHT INTO FRI...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SFC LOW LEVEL FEATURES. SOME
MODELS /MAINLY THE GFS AND NAM/ SHOW A DEEPER SFC LOW TRANSITING THE
CWA THU NIGHT INTO FRI /AS THE GFS HAS SHOWN VARIOUS ITERATIONS OF
FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS/. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...GALES WOULD LIKELY
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WHILE THIS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO ADD
THIS SCENARIO TO THE FORECAST. PRECIP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT IS A BIT
MORE CERTAIN SINCE IT WILL BE LESS DUE TO A SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AND MORE
TO SUB ZERO 850MB TEMPS AND WNW-NW LOW LEVEL WINDS LEADING TO LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. IN FACT...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW
COLD THE AIRMASS IS...SNOW IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE PICTURE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS UNLIKELY /ESPECIALLY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS/. DID ADD SNOW CHANCES TO THE FORECAST
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN UPPER MI FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AND FOR
PORTIONS OF NWRN AND NERN UPPER MI SAT NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS BY SATURDAY
LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S....WITH LOW TEMPS SAT NIGHT
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
GOING COMPLETELY WITH MODEL CONSENSUS IDEA SUN AND MON GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WL ALLOW LO CLDS AT SAW AND IWD TO BREAK UP
THIS AFTN WITH A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST THIS EVNG.
ALTHOUGH CMX MAY SEE SOME SC/LOWER CIGS EARLY THIS AFTN ON THE NRN
FRINGE OF SLOWLY DISSIPATING MAIN LO CLD AREA TO THE S...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THERE INTO AT LEAST THIS EVNG. ONCE HI
PRES IN ONTARIO SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE E TNGT AND A LO PRES TROF
APRCHS FM THE W...THE LLVL WINDS WL SHIFT TO A MORE S DIRECTION. IN
THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND THE RETURN OF MOISTER LLVL
AIR...EXPECT LO CLDS/IFR CONDITIONS TO DVLP AT SAW. DOWNSLOPE NATURE
OF THIS LLVL FLOW MAKES THE FCST AN ESPECIALLY TRICKY ONE FOR CMX
AND IWD...SO INCLUDED JUST A SCT DECK FOR NOW. ANY LO CLDS THAT DVLP
TNGT SHOULD DISSIPATE ON WED AT CMX/IWD WITH DAYTIME HEATING...BUT
THESE CLDS WL BE MORE RESILIENT AT SAW EVEN IF THE CIG HGT DOES LIFT
ABV 1K FT INTO THE MVFR RANGE BY NOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
WITH HIGH PRES JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
UNDER 20KT THIS MORNING. WINDS OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR MAY
INCREASE INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE FOR A TIME THIS AFTN/EVENING AS THE
HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE E. WINDS SHOULD OTHERWISE REMAIN UNDER 20KT
THROUGH AT LEAST THU MORNING...THOUGH THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT UPTICK
IN S TO SE WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WED AS PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BTWN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE W. THAT COLD FRONT WILL REACH LAKE SUPERIOR THU...AND THEN A
WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW ORGANIZES AND HOW QUICKLY IT
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES N THRU NRN ONTARIO...THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF NW GALES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AT SOME POINT
FRI AND/OR SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
133 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING
N THRU WRN NEBRASKA. IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM IS A SHARP RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM MO THRU MN INTO MANITOBA AND NRN ONTARIO. SHORTWAVE
THAT PRODUCED SHOWERS HERE YESTERDAY IS NOW OVER LWR MI AND SRN
ONTARIO. IN THE WAKE OF THAT SHORTWAVE...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS BEEN TRAPPED UNDER A STRENGTHENING INVERSION...RESULTING IN OVC
SKIES OVERNIGHT ACROSS UPPER MI WITH ONE EXCEPTION. DRIER AIR AND
CLEAR SKIES HAVE ADVANCED S ACROSS CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE TIP OF
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED OVER NRN
ONTARIO.
GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING INVERSION AND LOWER SUN ANGLE AT THIS TIME
OF YEAR...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A WHILE TO CLEAR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ALTHOUGH CLEARING HAS ADVANCED S TO THE TIP
OF THE KEWEENAW OVERNIGHT...VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION RESULTING FROM THE SFC HIGH SHIFTING EASTWARD WILL SLOW
AND STALL THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCE OF DRIER AIR. SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALREADY SHOWS THIS OCCURRING. GIVEN WHERE THE CLEARING LINE IS
UPSTREAM TO THE E OF LAKE SUPERIOR...HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AREA WILL NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING TODAY. FOR NOW...FCST
WILL SHOW CLOUDS DOMINATING THIS MORNING AND THEN GRADUAL CLEARING
IN THE AFTN. IT MAY END UP BEING THAT DOWNSLOPE AREAS WILL BE THE
FIRST TO SEE INCREASING SUNSHINE THIS AFTN WITH CLEARING THEN SLOWLY
EXPANDING FROM THERE. AS FOR TEMPS...LOWERED TEMPS A BIT FROM
INHERITED FCST TO REFLECT THE MORE PESSIMISTIC CLEARING TREND. TEMPS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50F OVER THE NCNTRL WHERE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO
LINGER LONGEST. OTHERWISE...50S WIL BE THE RULE TODAY.
IF SKIES DO CLEAR THIS AFTN/EVENING...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AGAIN TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS SPREADING E FROM THE POTENT SHORTWAVE
LIFTING THRU THE DAKOTAS BUT MORE SO DUE TO A RETURN OF LOWER CLOUDS
LIFTING BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SE. ALTHOUGH POTENT SHORTWAVE
WILL BE TAKING A TRACK WELL W OF HERE...RIBBON OF FAIRLY STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY SPREAD SCT
SHRA AS FAR E AS FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
ATTENTION IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT 12Z WED INTO THE CWA AT 00Z SAT
WHILE DEEPENING AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED...AS IS GENERALLY
AGREED ON BY NWP. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN LOOKS TO CLOSE OFF INTO A
LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRI NIGHT...BUT MODEL
DISAGREEMENT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AT THIS POINT WITH THE STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT DOES INCREASE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON WITH MODELS SHOWING A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS.
ONE THING THAT CAN BE SAID WITH CERTAINTY IS THAT THE PATTERN WILL
BE MORE ACTIVE THAN LAST WEEK.
SHOWERS /POSSIBLY WITH SOME THUNDER/ IS STILL EXPECTED TO VERY
GRADUALLY MOVE W TO E ACROSS THE CWA WED THROUGH THU DUE TO
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT. MAIN ISSUE
TO POINT OUT FROM A CONFIDENCE STANDPOINT IS THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL PROBABLY EJECT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE W /AS SHOWN BY
NWP/...BUT THE MODELS DO NO AGREE ON THE STRENGTH/TIMING/TRACK OF
ANY ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE
PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP AND/OR GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE...BUT
ACCURATELY TIMING THOSE OUT IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 60S LOOK TO MAKE A RETURN ON WED AND THU DUE TO THE WAA AND
RESULTING WARM AIRMASS /850MB TEMPS OF 10-13C/.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE UPPER TROUGH TEARS INTO THE AREA THU
NIGHT AND FRI...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WITH IT. AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE 850MB TEMPS BELOW 0C BY THE END OF
THE DAY FRI. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND MAGNITUDE OF
RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS AS IT MOVES IN...PERIODS OF PRECIP DOES LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET THU NIGHT INTO FRI...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SFC LOW LEVEL FEATURES. SOME
MODELS /MAINLY THE GFS AND NAM/ SHOW A DEEPER SFC LOW TRANSITING THE
CWA THU NIGHT INTO FRI /AS THE GFS HAS SHOWN VARIOUS ITERATIONS OF
FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS/. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...GALES WOULD LIKELY
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WHILE THIS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO ADD
THIS SCENARIO TO THE FORECAST. PRECIP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT IS A BIT
MORE CERTAIN SINCE IT WILL BE LESS DUE TO A SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AND MORE
TO SUB ZERO 850MB TEMPS AND WNW-NW LOW LEVEL WINDS LEADING TO LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. IN FACT...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW
COLD THE AIRMASS IS...SNOW IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE PICTURE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS UNLIKELY /ESPECIALLY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS/. DID ADD SNOW CHANCES TO THE FORECAST
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN UPPER MI FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AND FOR
PORTIONS OF NWRN AND NERN UPPER MI SAT NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS BY SATURDAY
LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S....WITH LOW TEMPS SAT NIGHT
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
GOING COMPLETELY WITH MODEL CONSENSUS IDEA SUN AND MON GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WL ALLOW LO CLDS AT SAW AND IWD TO BREAK UP
THIS AFTN WITH A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST THIS EVNG.
ALTHOUGH CMX MAY SEE SOME SC/LOWER CIGS EARLY THIS AFTN ON THE NRN
FRINGE OF SLOWLY DISSIPATING MAIN LO CLD AREA TO THE S...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THERE INTO AT LEAST THIS EVNG. ONCE HI
PRES IN ONTARIO SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE E TNGT AND A LO PRES TROF
APRCHS FM THE W...THE LLVL WINDS WL SHIFT TO A MORE S DIRECTION. IN
THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND THE RETURN OF MOISTER LLVL
AIR...EXPECT LO CLDS/IFR CONDITIONS TO DVLP AT SAW. DOWNSLOPE NATURE
OF THIS LLVL FLOW MAKES THE FCST AN ESPECIALLY TRICKY ONE FOR CMX
AND IWD...SO INCLUDED JUST A SCT DECK FOR NOW. ANY LO CLDS THAT DVLP
TNGT SHOULD DISSIPATE ON WED AT CMX/IWD WITH DAYTIME HEATING...BUT
THESE CLDS WL BE MORE RESILIENT AT SAW EVEN IF THE CIG HGT DOES LIFT
ABV 1K FT INTO THE MVFR RANGE BY NOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
WITH HIGH PRES JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
UNDER 20KT THIS MORNING. WINDS OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR MAY
INCREASE INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE FOR A TIME THIS AFTN/EVENING AS THE
HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE E. WINDS SHOULD OTHERWISE REMAIN UNDER 20KT
THROUGH AT LEAST THU MORNING...THOUGH THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT UPTICK
IN S TO SE WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WED AS PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BTWN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE W. THAT COLD FRONT WILL REACH LAKE SUPERIOR THU...AND THEN A
WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW ORGANIZES AND HOW QUICKLY IT
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES N THRU NRN ONTARIO...THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF NW GALES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AT SOME POINT
FRI AND/OR SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
317 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
GIVEN LATEST TRENDS OF SD SFC LOW...SVR THREAT OVER THE NRN CWA FOR
THIS AFTN/EVENING LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AT
PRESENT SFC LOW WAS CENTERED OVER WRN SD WITH MOISTURE FEED RUNNING
UP THE MO VLY REGION INTO THE SYSTEM. THE RAP HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE
LAST SEVERAL RUNS TAKING THE POTENT UPPER LVL VORT MAX/SFC
REFLECTION TRIPLE POINT IN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK.
HOWEVER...CANNOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT SOME TSTM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
LATER ON...THUS WILL HAVE TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN SMALL POPS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MOVING ON...NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PCPN CHANCES WILL REVOLVE AROUND NEXT
COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. BOTH NAM/GFS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT SFC BNDRY WILL STRETCH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ERN CO...AND
SHOULD BE STAGNANT THRU THE DAY DUE TO PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT. BY WED
NIGHT THOUGH...A SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL ACT
TO HELP DISPLACE THE SFC FRONT EWD...AND IS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION TO ERN OK BY THUR AFTN. AT THIS POINT
FEEL THE ARW/NMM BEST REFLECTS ANTICIPATED PROGRESSION OF PCPN
ACTIVITY DURING THIS TIME...THUS HAVE GEARED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
AS FOR SVR POTENTIAL WED AFTN...STOUT INSTABILITY WILL BE ON HAND.
HOWEVER...BOTH NAM/GFS SEEM TO FAVOR SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE CWA WHERE EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE MOST PREVALENT.
NEVERTHELESS...THERE IS STILL AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE AREAS SOUTH OF
I-80 COULD SEE STRONG/NEAR SVR STORMS.
IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL...GIVEN SLOW NATURE OF PASSING BNDRY
COUPLED WITH PROLONGED VERTICAL ASCENT...IT IS QUITE PROBABLE A
FEW LOCATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WILL EXPERIENCE HEFTY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY EVENTS END THURSDAY AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED PDS AS BOTH GFS/ECM
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE WRN CONUS...EXPECT
INCREASING THKNS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THUS ALLOWING FOR A
RATHER NICE FALL TYPE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
MVFR CEILINGS AND LOCAL IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH SHRA/TSRA. PCPN MAY NOT AFFECT KOFK TOO MUCH TONIGHT BUT DID
ADD IN IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY ALSO
AFFECT KLNK AND KOMA LATER TONIGHT AFTER PCPN ENDS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
SEVERE RISK IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WAS CONDITIONAL AND AGREE WITH
THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. WE MAY STILL HAVE A FEW STRONG
STORMS AROUND. TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON PCPN. AHEAD
OF THE PCPN AREA IT HAS WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S IN FAR SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. WHERE PCPN IS CURRENTLY FALLING IT IS
IN THE 60S. EXPECT PCPN TO CONTINUE IN OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A BREAK LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING THEN MORE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DEALING WITH TIMING OF PRECIP EVENTS
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION.
INITIAL SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING WAS LIFTING INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 07Z. SUPPORTED BY
60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. CONVECTION HAD
WEAKENED AND DIMINISHED SINCE 05Z AS BAND OF STORMS MOVED AWAY
FROM SUPPORT OF 60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
06Z RAP TRANSLATES THIS BAND OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE EAST DURING
THE MORNING AND INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME WITH SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING INITIAL BAND OF
STORMS STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BY 18Z IN ADVANCE OF DRY LINE. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER
CLOUDS BREAK ENOUGH FOR SUN TO ADD TO DESTABILIZATION NEAR THE DRY
LINE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE.
AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. PRIMARY FORCING FINALLY SHIFTS EAST WITH THE UPPER WAVE
AND SURFACE FRONT LATE THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT
TERM WEATHER SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER
STRONG WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PULLS DOWN
COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. WARMER TEMPS RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AS MEAN TROUGH SETS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION
WITH RIDGING IN THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
MVFR CEILINGS AND LOCAL IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH SHRA/TSRA. PCPN MAY NOT AFFECT KOFK TOO MUCH TONIGHT BUT DID
ADD IN IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY ALSO
AFFECT KLNK AND KOMA LATER TONIGHT AFTER PCPN ENDS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1254 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
UPDATED POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND
15 UTC HRRR TRYING TO CONVEY THE ANTICIPATED BREAKS IN ACTIVITY
BETWEEN THE CURRENT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ND
AT THIS TIME...AND THE NEXT WAVE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL BY MID AFTERNOON. DID ADD A MENTION OF SEVERE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL 21-00 UTC ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG SHEAR AND
LOW LEVEL HELICITY. THE LATEST HRRR IS NOT A STRONG WITH LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY CONVECTION OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME. STRONG STACKED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIFT INTO NORTH
DAKOTA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VERY STRONG SHEAR/LOW
LEVEL HELICITY WILL EXIST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AROUND 20/21Z
AND LIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM THERE WILL
BE A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE FROM AROUND THE MISSOURI RIVER EAST INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...DUE TO THE
EXPECTED FAST STORM MOTION...AND WEAK TORNADOES DUE TO THE STRONG
SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY. WILL FRESHEN UP PRODUCTS INCLUDING
THE HWO WITH LATEST THINKING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
WELL DEFINED CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR RAPID CITY IS LIFTING
NORTH. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. CURRENT TRENDS HAVE THE RAIN
ARRIVING IN BISMARCK AROUND 9 AM CDT. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY
FOR THIS. ALSO FOG NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER THOUGHT. CONFINED
THE FOG MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
CURRENTLY...A LARGE SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WERE OVER
THE WESTERN NE/SD BORDER. THIS STACKED SYSTEM WAS NEAR THE BASE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ALASKA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSE
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WAS PROGGED TO MOVE
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL/WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY
DAYBREAK TODAY. THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.
AFTER DAYBREAK THE THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...FINALLY EXITING
INTO MANITOBA BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND WITH SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM - INCLUDING WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY - POINT TO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE...WHERE AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST. CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA CAN EXPECT A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 1/2 INCH TO 3/4 OF AN
INCH...WITH 1/3 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
THE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO MANITOBA.
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
AFTER THE SHORT TERM UPPER LOW KICKS OUT THERE IS A SECOND
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING
A SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION AND GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE IS AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. THE WEEKEND GENERALLY LOOKS DRY WITH A SLOW
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
BROAD RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN US EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. STILL DO NOT SEE A HARD FREEZE FOR THOSE AREAS
THAT HAVE NOT SEEN ONE...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL BY MID AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTH
NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE AS THE SURFACE LIFTS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DO
EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST BY MID TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
205 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS SOUTHEAST...BRUSHES AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE/LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES AT
THIS TIME. THESE ARE PART OF THE LARGER LINE OF SHRA TO THE NORTH
ACROSS WESTERN PA AND NW OHIO. WHILE THAT PORTION OF THE LINE IS
MOVING EAST QUICKER...THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LINE AFFECTING OUR
AREA IS SLOWER AS TO BE EXPECTED. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. MAY
BE MORE REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS SE OHIO LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
1030 AM UPDATE...
FIRST LINE OF CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY NEARING PERRY COUNTY AT THIS TIME. RAMPED
UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS NEAR OUR
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA BORDER FROM PERRY COUNTY OVER TOWARDS
MORGAN AND WASH COUNTIES IN OHIO FOR THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS AS IT
QUICKLY MOVES EAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PATCHES OF CLOUDS STILL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT 07Z...OTHERWISE
VALLEY FOG PREVAILS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS MID/UPPER TROF
OVER LAKE HURON AND MICHIGAN DROPPING SOUTHEAST. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT/WIND SHIFT WAS APPROACHING TOL AND STILL NORTH OF IND.
AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THE MAIN COOLING ALOFT TODAY WILL BE NORTH
OF OUR CWA. FOR EXAMPLE...00Z NAM HAS 500 MB TEMP AT PBZ COOLING
ABOUT 5C TODAY...WHILE CKB ONLY ABOUT A DEG C. SO TIMING THE
POPS...AND HOW FAR SOUTH TO MENTION PCPN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IS ONE CHALLENGE. AFTER DIGESTING THE MODELS...SEE NO
REASON TO CHANGE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS
HTS-CRW VCNTY FOR THIS EVENING. THIS IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN
MOST 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS. FURTHER NNE...HAVE POPS MAXING OUT AROUND
40 TO 50 PCT FOR N CNTRL WV FROM 21Z TODAY TO 01Z WEDNESDAY.
DRY AIR SOUTH OF THAT DISTURBANCE FOR TODAY. RAP SOLUTION TRIES TO
EVEN LOWER DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S. MAYBE ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN LIKE
BKW...BUT DID NOT GO THAT LOW IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS.
MAIN PUSH BEHIND FRONT IS INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO...BEFORE 925 MB WINDS
QUICKLY VEER TO EAST OR DIMINISH TO CALM. THINKING LOW STRATUS WILL
FORM TONIGHT IN SE OHIO BEHIND FRONT. FURTHER SOUTH IN THE COAL
FIELDS OF WV...WAS THINKING JUST THE USUAL DIURNAL LATE NIGHT FOG.
FURTHER NORTH...LINGERING CLOUDS MAY HINDER OR DELAY THE FOG
FORMATION AROUND CKB AND EKN. HTS-CRW CORRIDOR IS A TOUGH CALL
BETWEEN ALL 3 FOR LATE TONIGHT...PATCHES OF CLOUDS LINGERING
OVERNIGHT...STRATUS FORMATION...OR SURFACE BASED FOG FORMING.
OVERALL KEPT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GFS MOS
GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE HEADING EAST OUT TO SEA TO START THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...ANTICIPATE LOTS OF LOW
STRATUS WEDNESDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY BREAKING UP THROUGH THE DAY.
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE DO NOT EXPECT THESE
CLOUDS. WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUDS...ALSO LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
SEVERAL DEGREES IN SE OHIO. BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED MET INTO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HAVE A LITTLE TRAILING VORT MAX COMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PASSES THURSDAY WITH A
WARMER...SUNNY DAY. AGAIN BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS...BLENDED IN BIAS
CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
L/W TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA THIS PERIOD. RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY FRI AS LEAD SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH CROSSES JUST OUT AHEAD OF
SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH IS DRIVEN BY MID STREAM S/W PIVOTING THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRI...DRIVING THE SFC COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STRONG FLOW...FORCING...LAST MINUTE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND LATE DAY TIMING SHOULD SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER...ALTHOUGH
A MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE LEAD SRN STREAM S/W...WHICH BRINGS CLOUDS
AND RAIN ACROSS EARLIER IN THE DAY.
A HIGH OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
INITIALLY...BRINGING ABOUT A FAIR...COOL WEEKEND. A REINFORCING
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND SFC FRONT CROSS MON...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...AND THEN EVEN COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BLENDED IN GFS BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRI AND THEN MAINLY WPC FOR
LOWS AND HIGHS BEYOND THAT...MOST CHANGES TO LOWER VALUES BUT NOT BY
MUCH.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BEING EXPERIENCED THIS AFTERNOON. A LINE
OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY PUSHING SLOWLY ACROSS SE OHIO INTO THE
PANHANDLE OF WV SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF US HWY 50. BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VIS IS POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH A HEAVIER SHOWER BUT AGAIN...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PREVALENT OTHERWISE.
EXPECT LOWER MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO
00Z TO 06Z WEDNESDAY...BEHIND THE FRONT CURRENTLY JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST. A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS MAINLY FOR THE
CENTRAL WV LOWLANDS WITH EXACTLY HOW FAR EAST AND SOUTH IT
PROGRESSES...WITH LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG POSSIBLE IN THIS GENERAL
AREA. THINKING MORE DIURNAL FOG WILL FORM ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS BTWN
15Z-18Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY BE MORE THAN FORECAST
IN THE PKB-CKB-EKN VCNTY. ARRIVAL OF LOWER STRATUS CEILING INTO
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND PKB MAY BE FASTER THAN
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/50
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
402 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...
/Tonight and Wednesday/
Isolated showers have been affecting the Big County this afternoon,
embedded within the mid-level moist axis streaming across the Lone
Star State from southwest to northeast. The RAP Mesoanalysis
indicates a narrow axis of MLCAPE values approaching 1500 J/kg
across the western counties this afternoon, but even the cu
development as been rather limited, suggesting a pretty strong cap.
We are seeing a bit more vertical development in the cu field over
the Trans-Pecos area, however, and any convection that develops may
drift into the southwest zones. Thus, the slight chance PoPs were
retained this evening, mainly west of a line from Ozona, to Robert
Lee, to Miller Creek Reservoir. Winds will be a few mph stronger
than what was observed last night and, combined with the increasing
low-level moisture, should support min temps in the mid to upper 60s.
On Wednesday, the thermal ridge axis will shift east, resulting in
850mb temps of 24-25C across the Big Country and Concho Valley by
peak heating. With low-level adiabatic lapse rates during the
afternoon hours, we should have little problem warming into the
lower 90s across much of the area. These warm temperatures may
strain the cap to its breaking point by late afternoon, so the
mention of showers and thunderstorms was retained after 20z (3 PM).
Coverage is expected to remain very limited, but any storms that
develop could be strong.
.LONG TERM...
/Wednesday night through Monday/
Afternoon water vapor imagery shows a strengthening trough
progressing southeast across the Inter-mountain West, upper-level
moisture streaming northeast across west central Texas from Tropical
Depression Rachel, and a shortwave trough lifting northeast across
the Dakotas. A dryline observed in surface observations extends
south through the Texas Panhandle, with a few showers developing
ahead of this feature. Ahead of this dryline, southeasterly surface
winds continue to advect moisture into the region from the Gulf of
Mexico.
The trend in the model solutions the past few days has been to delay
the arrival of a cold front. This trend has continued today with the
GFS and ECMWF trending towards the NAM model. Convective
temperatures are expected to be reached tomorrow evening. With
sufficient moisture/good instability in place, shower and
thunderstorm development will be possible, mainly north and west of
a line from San Angelo to Baird. Forecast soundings show SBCAPEs in
excess of 2000 J/kg, around 20-25 Kts of 0-6km shear, and T/TD
spreads around 30 degrees F. With this type of environment, a few
strong thunderstorms will be possible.
With the arrival of the upper trough Thursday, a cold front will
cross the area during the day. For Thursday, moisture, instability,
and shear will increase ahead of the cold front, with forecast
soundings indicating convective temperatures being reached, and a
higher potential for strong thunderstorms/possibly a few severe/ if
frontal timing in the models are correct. Friday will feature cooler
temperatures, with highs near 80 degrees. Another disturbance will
cross the Central Plains this weekend sending a weak cold front
south. This front will stall across the area on Sunday, with
increasing surface moisture likely south of the front. However,
moisture return looks insufficient for shower development at this
time. Overall confidence is moderate in rain chances
Wednesday/Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 69 92 72 92 56 / 10 10 20 20 5
San Angelo 69 93 73 89 57 / 10 5 10 20 10
Junction 66 91 73 90 60 / 5 5 5 20 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
Johnson/60
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1241 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS BEGINNING TO FORM INLAND OF MATAGORDA BAY AND WILL EXPAND
EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CARRIED A VCTS FOR LBX AND
THE METRO AREA TAF SITES. COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LOW BUT BOTH THE
TXTECH WRF AND 12Z HRRR RUNS FOCUS ACTIVITY NEAR THE METRO AREA
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD END QUICKLY
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
REGION. AGAIN THE NAM SEEMS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WHILE THE GFS IS
LIKELY UNDERESTIMATING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL CARRY TEMPO FOR
NOW AND ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO REEVALUATE THIS EVENING. 38
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 72 92 76 92 68 / 10 10 10 30 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 73 90 77 91 72 / 10 20 10 30 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 78 84 79 87 77 / 10 20 10 20 60
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...38
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1232 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
MAINTAINED VCSH FOR KHRL...STILL THINK THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE
SHOWERS WILL STAY NORTH OF KBRO AND KMFE. EXPECT MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LATEST SATELLITE AND
WATER VAPOR OBSERVATIONS SHOW RIDGE MIGRATING EASTWARD AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH THE HIGH PRESSURE EAST AND DEEPENS
THE LEE SIDE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS EXTENDING INTO THE CWA
GRADUALLY INCREASING WINDS BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
SOUTHERN HIDALGO COUNTY AND UNDERNEATH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DEPICTED OVER THE AREA WITH 00Z KBRO SOUNDING SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE
CONCENTRATED UP TO 800 MB. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ONLY REACH 1.72
INCHES AND THAT IS DUE TO THE DRY MID LEVEL AIR MOVING IN WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS OF 8Z...RADAR SHOWS SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT FAVORING NORTHERN KENEDY COUNTY AND EASTERN HIDALGO AND
CAMERON AND IT IS MAINLY RAP RAP AROUND THE WEAK LOW/MCV. THE CONVECTION
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND MOVE INTO
BROOKS COUNTY BY MID DAY AS THE WEAK LOW MOVES FURTHER INLAND BEFORE
IT GETS TAKEN BY THE MID TO UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND THE GULF WATERS LATE
TODAY INTO WED. LEFT INHERITED 10 PERCENT AS AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE MOST PART
TODAY WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOW CIGS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND CLOSE TO 90S ALONG
THE RIVER OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES. TONIGHT THE DRY AIR WILL LOWER
THE CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA SO LEAN TOWARDS 10 POPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AS THE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIGS SOUTH WEDNESDAY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS A BIT RETURNING SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS
THE CWA ALLOWING FOR THAT WEAK LOW TO DISSIPATE. SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WITH MORE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
EXPECTED. LOW CHANCE OF RAIN AND LOW AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS TO RETURN TO THE 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS IN
THE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION ALONG THE COAST. LOW CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
REMAIN OVER THE GULF WATERS AS DRY AIR GRADUALLY DIMINISHES ANY
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA. TODAY DUE TO THE LIGHT TO
VARIABLE WINDS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE LINGERING AROUND THE
AREA WILL ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG TO
DEVELOP. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE WITH DAY TIME HEATING IN THE
MORNING HOUR.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...500MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. THURSDAY BRINGING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS THURS AFTERNOON. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRI AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE RGV FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST MEXICO AND
STALLS AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL ACROSS NORTHERN TAMAULIAPAS.
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO SOUTH TX
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS EAST TX
SATURDAY MOVES EASTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE AS THE WEAK LOW KEEPS SPINNING OVER THE AREA
PRODUCING ERRATIC WINDS BETWEEN 10 T 15 KNOTS. THIS LOW IS HELPING
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AT THIS TIME AND DO EXPECT THE SAME PATTERN
TO CONTINUE TODAY AND IMPROVE WEDNESDAY. THE SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SCA BUT A SCEC IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRI
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
FROM THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
51/51
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1231 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL STAY IN PLACE AT KLBB THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
KCDS WILL ALSO REMAIN VFR BUT HAS A CHANCE AT SEEING THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TIMING REMAINS QUESTIONABLE
STILL AND UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH COVERAGE IS A CONCERN AS WELL.
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SEE IF TEMPO CAN
BE REMOVED IF CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT.
JORDAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
AVIATION...
BEST CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THUNDER CHANCES DEVELOPING JUST EAST
OF KLBB EARLY THIS EVENING BUT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL. BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDER AT KCDS WERE A PROB30 GROUP WAS ADDED. VFR
OTHERWISE WILL DOMINATE. LOW CHANCE FOR CG CIGS AROUND KCDS TO
LOWER TO NEAR MVFR LEVELS THIS EVENING. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
SHORT TERM...
A MOISTURE PLUME WAS PULLING UP INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS REGION
THIS MORNING FROM THE TROPICAL NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN...WHILE AN
UPPER LOW WAS SPINNING OFF INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A TRAILING
IMPULSE EJECTING THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO MAY BE IN TANDEM WITH
A WEAKER IMPULSE CROSSING THE MOIST PLUME OVER WEST TEXAS. ISOLATED
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WERE CROSSING THE SOUTH PLAINS...HEADING INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT LIFT IS
DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY IN THIS PATTERN...WE EXPECT TO REMAIN WITHIN
THE MOIST PLUME THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SUBJECT TO AT LEAST WEAK
FORCING FROM THE TRAILING SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. MAJORITY
OF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BREAK THUNDERSTORMS OUT NEAR OR JUST EAST
OF THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE CONVERGENCE TIGHTENS A DRYLINE WITH POTENTIAL
SURFACE DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE LOWER OR EVEN MIDDLE 60S LYING JUST
TO THE EAST. STILL SOME CONCERN OVER POSSIBLE ERRORS IN MODEL
DEPICTION OF SURFACE DEWPOINT STRUCTURE...BUT OVERNIGHT TRENDS IN
WRF/NAM AND RAP SEEM TO GIVE SOME CREDENCE TO THE HIGHER MOISTURE
LEVELS. AND THIS WOULD GENERATE CONVECTIVE ENERGY UP TO 2500 JOULES
PER KILOGRAM WITH MODEST SHEAR OF 25-30 KNOTS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW HEFTY STORMS IN THIS AREA LATER TODAY. WE HAVE EDGED
PREVIOUS THUNDER CHANCES SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST FOR
LATER TODAY WHILE RETAINING BULK OF PREVIOUS FORECAST. WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON....FAVORED A CONSALL/
CONSRAW ENSEMBLE APPROACH A NOTCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD DOMINATES THE WEATHER
PATTERN.
A COLD FRONT/RETREATING DRYLINE MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH IS POSITIVELY TILTED AS
IT BARRELS OUT ONTO THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY. FURTHERMORE...THE
TIMING OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS NOT GREAT. A BULK OF THE LARGE SCALE
LIFT WILL NOT SPREAD OVER THE AREA UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. WE WILL
STILL SEE A GOOD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS UNTIL THIS POINT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HANG ON TO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EAST
OF THE DRYLINE. BUT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER THAN TODAY.
THE COLD FRONT FROM THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUNCH THROUGH ON
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WILL NOT PLOW
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON LEAVING POSSIBLE STORM CHANCES IN THIS AREA. AFTER THE
COLD FRONT AND TROUGH ON THURSDAY...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ENTER
THE REGION WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN US. A WEAK SHORT WAVE ON
SUNDAY WILL HAVE LITTLE CONSEQUENCE ON ANY WEATHER IMPACTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL IN THE MORNING WITH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS THE COOLEST DIPPING DOWN INTO THE 40S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 80 54 83 52 71 / 10 0 0 0 0
TULIA 83 57 86 55 73 / 10 20 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 83 58 86 55 73 / 20 20 10 10 10
LEVELLAND 84 59 86 56 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 84 60 87 56 75 / 20 20 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 85 60 87 57 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 85 59 88 57 77 / 20 10 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 88 64 93 58 78 / 20 30 20 20 10
SPUR 86 62 91 64 81 / 20 30 10 20 10
ASPERMONT 89 67 93 69 85 / 20 20 20 20 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$