Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 09/29/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
855 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 846 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014
CONVECTION CONTINUES ROLLING ALONG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS ADVERTISE A FEW MORE WAVES WILL
PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH 3 AM THIS
MORNING. ALSO TRACKING SOME ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTH OUT
OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS LA PLATA AND ARCHULETA COUNTIES THAT
SHOULD CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH SUNRISE. HAVE MODIFIED POP
GRIDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TO FIT EXPECTED CONDITIONS.
ANY CLEARING LATER TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS AND FOG WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT. SNOW IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY HAS BEEN CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9K ACROSS
THE SAN JUANS AND AROUND 10K FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTH.
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN LIGHT THUS FAR...BUT THE PEAKS ARE WHITE
IN MANY AREAS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 605 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO WORK NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR INDICATES
AT LEAST ONE MORE WAVE WILL WORK ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND INTO WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST COLORADO THIS EVENING. SOUTHERN ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED IN NATURE AND HAVE ALLOWED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE DOWN IN THAT AREA. NEW GRIDS WILL BE
OUT SHORTLY WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POP FIELDS TO FIT CURRENT
ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014
FORECAST AREA IN A BIT OF A LULL THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG THE BORDER AREA BETWEEN
UTAH AND COLORADO AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO. MODELS
INDICATED MID-LEVEL DRYING WORKING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH HAS
LIMITED CONVECTION ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE WHICH PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...THOUGH MOISTURE HAS DECREASED...MODELS CONTINUED TO
INSIST THAT STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON SO WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF LA PLATA AND ARCHULETA COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM.
ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL CAUSE THE CIRCULATION TO SHIFT OVER WESTERN UTAH DURING THE
NIGHT. AS THE LOW SHIFTS...A DRY SLOT WILL WORK OVER SOUTHEAST
UTAH PRETTY MUCH ENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DIVERGENCE OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASED
COVERAGE THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SAN JUANS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. CONTINUED DRYING AND
DIURNAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY LATER
TONIGHT...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AS A STRONG
VORT LOBE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ON TO THE
NORTHEAST CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
UNIFORMLY NEAR 0.5 INCHES WHILE INSTABILITY MARGINAL AND MUCAPE
UNIMPRESSIVE. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT DEVELOPING STORMS WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK AND UNLIKELY TO GENERATE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
DRYING COMES MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS LOW ENOUGH FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ABOVE 10000 FEET DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. IN FACT ...STRONGER
CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD BRING SNOW LOWER AS EVIDENCED BY PICTURE
RECEIVED OF LONE CONE IN THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WHICH INDICATED
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO...OR PERHAPS A BIT BELOW 9000 FEET.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AND COLDER YET MONDAY NIGHT...
THOUGH STILL ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE VALLEYS. MONDAY/S HIGHS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE EXPERIENCED TODAY...OR ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014
A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MIDWEEK
BEFORE SHIFTING OVER THE EASTERN STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND. TUESDAY
LOOKS LIKE AN IN-BETWEEN DAY WITH WESTERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW KEEPING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW AROUND FOR THE NRN
MTNS. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN SHOWER COVERAGE ON WED AS IT BRINGS A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOLER
AIR WED-WED NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SO BLENDED IN THE LATEST
CONSENSUS MODEL POPS FOR WED. CLEARING SKIES LATE WED NIGHT TO
FREEZING TEMPS THU MORNING IN SOME VALLEYS.
A PACIFIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND LATE THIS
WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER THU-SUN. TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL AVERAGE
NEAR TO COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK...WILL BEGIN A
WARMING TREND FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 846 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE GREAT BASIN STARTS TO LIFT OUT AND ACROSS THE AREA.
MOUNTAINS WILL BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS NEAR SHOWERS. LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY IMPACTING ALL
TERMINAL SITES. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
611 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 605 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO WORK NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR INDICATES
AT LEAST ONE MORE WAVE WILL WORK ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND INTO WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST COLORADO THIS EVENING. SOUTHERN ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED IN NATURE AND HAVE ALLOWED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE DOWN IN THAT AREA. NEW GRIDS WILL BE
OUT SHORTLY WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POP FIELDS TO FIT CURRENT
ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014
FORECAST AREA IN A BIT OF A LULL THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG THE BORDER AREA BETWEEN
UTAH AND COLORADO AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO. MODELS
INDICATED MID-LEVEL DRYING WORKING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH HAS
LIMITED CONVECTION ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE WHICH PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...THOUGH MOISTURE HAS DECREASED...MODELS CONTINUED TO
INSIST THAT STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON SO WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF LA PLATA AND ARCHULETA COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM.
ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL CAUSE THE CIRCULATION TO SHIFT OVER WESTERN UTAH DURING THE
NIGHT. AS THE LOW SHIFTS...A DRY SLOT WILL WORK OVER SOUTHEAST
UTAH PRETTY MUCH ENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DIVERGENCE OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASED
COVERAGE THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SAN JUANS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. CONTINUED DRYING AND
DIURNAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY LATER
TONIGHT...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AS A STRONG
VORT LOBE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ON TO THE
NORTHEAST CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
UNIFORMLY NEAR 0.5 INCHES WHILE INSTABILITY MARGINAL AND MUCAPE
UNIMPRESSIVE. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT DEVELOPING STORMS WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK AND UNLIKELY TO GENERATE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
DRYING COMES MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS LOW ENOUGH FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ABOVE 10000 FEET DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. IN FACT ...STRONGER
CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD BRING SNOW LOWER AS EVIDENCED BY PICTURE
RECEIVED OF LONE CONE IN THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WHICH INDICATED
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO...OR PERHAPS A BIT BELOW 9000 FEET.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AND COLDER YET MONDAY NIGHT...
THOUGH STILL ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE VALLEYS. MONDAY/S HIGHS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE EXPERIENCED TODAY...OR ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014
A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MIDWEEK
BEFORE SHIFTING OVER THE EASTERN STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND. TUESDAY
LOOKS LIKE AN IN-BETWEEN DAY WITH WESTERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW KEEPING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW AROUND FOR THE NRN
MTNS. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN SHOWER COVERAGE ON WED AS IT BRINGS A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOLER
AIR WED-WED NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SO BLENDED IN THE LATEST
CONSENSUS MODEL POPS FOR WED. CLEARING SKIES LATE WED NIGHT TO
FREEZING TEMPS THU MORNING IN SOME VALLEYS.
A PACIFIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND LATE THIS
WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER THU-SUN. TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL AVERAGE
NEAR TO COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK...WILL BEGIN A
WARMING TREND FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 502 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIVE MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. AREA
AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR THRESHOLDS FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS MAY DRIVE CIGS AND VSBYS DOWN TO
MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS. SOME SNOW WILL ALSO FALL NEAR THE 10000 FT
LEVEL. MOUNTAINS WILL BE FQTLY OBSCD THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
713 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL PUSH INCREASING MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS. RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO CONTINUED RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY...AND PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST HAS
RESULTED IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES NORTH TO 1.9 INCHES
SOUTH. PWAT VALUES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE ALONG THE GULF. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS OFFSHORE AND A FEW WEAK RETURNS ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND CSRA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE CSRA
AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCES RAMPING UP TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD RESTRICT LOW
TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS VERY
CLOSE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY MOVE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN OFF TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. AS THE LOW
STRENGTHENS...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BECOME
MORE EASTERLY AND OFF THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THE LOW
IN THE GULF WILL ALSO BE SPREADING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
MEANWHILE ALOFT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA WILL
PUSH EASTWARD...ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY TO
SWING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH
THROUGH ON MONDAY...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THE UPPER SYSTEM TO
TAP AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AND EXPECT TO SEE PLENTY OF
RAINFALL DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS RAIN WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN SHOULD BE PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. WILL HOLD ONTO CATEGORICAL POPS MONDAY...THEN LIKELY POPS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN DRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT MAINLY SHOWERS AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH...WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DIURNAL WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL
EXPECTED...SO ONLY WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MORNING LOWS
ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE BACK IN THE 60S AGAIN. WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BOTH ALOFT ANT AT THE
SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
AT THIS TIME. A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BY FRIDAY...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE TAF PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WE MAINLY USED AN AVERAGE OF
THE HRRR AND GFS LAMP FOR THE TIMING OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS.
RAIN WILL LIKELY BECOME WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE NAM
AND GFS MOS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WINDS NORTHEAST 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW WITH THE WARM
SECTOR WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...THE MODELS
INDICATE JUST WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1052 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH UP WITH
THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 904 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP ALONG THE KY/VA/TN BORDER...WITH
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY INITIATING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WHERE
A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS NOSING IN FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
ACTIVITY...SLOWLY DIMINISHING IT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE
SOUTHEASTERN TERRAIN SHOWERS SEEM TO BE A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...SO
HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM NOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AS THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
AS OF MID AFTERNOON AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO REGION. A WEAK UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE IA/IL
BORDER WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WAS
NEARING THE NORTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED NORTH FROM MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUING TO MEANDER ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA REGION.
IN RATHER WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR...VERY
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT THESE REMAIN RATHER SPARSE.
TONIGHT...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE COMMONWEALTH. AT THE
SAME TIME...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
OH VALLEY REGION AS THE WEAK CLOSED LOW OPENS UP. THIS COMBINATION
SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS LOW CLOUDS AT
TIMES AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES WHERE CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR MAY
NOT EXPERIENCE MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON
MONDAY. THE DEEPEST THE MOISTURE WILL GET SHOULD BE EARLY ON MONDAY
AND AT THAT POINT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE GREATEST AT THAT
POINT...AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WERE USED FOR MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. EVEN ALONG THE VA
BORDER...HOWEVER... ONLY 40 PERCENT POPS WERE USED. MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST FROM THE CREST OF THE SMOKIES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND PIEDMONT.
THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT ANY RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH FOR ONE INITIALLY IN THE EVENING.
CLOUDS...LINGERING MOISTURE AND MORNING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD LIMIT MAX T ON MONDAY AND HAVE GENERALLY
UNDERCUT THE MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS ACROSS THIS REGION.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...WITH THE
AXIS DEPARTING TO THE EAST AROUND SUNSET ON MONDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINNING TO APPROACH
LATE. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LATE MORNING OR
MIDDAY ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE CLOUDS MAY HANG ON EVEN
LONGER NEARER TO THE VA BORDER. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE
FOR A SMALL RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG...POSSIBLY
DENSE IN A FEW SPOTS...AND THE COLDEST MIN T IN THE VALLEYS NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY...WHICH HAS BEEN COMMON AS OF LATE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
THE MODELS WERE AGAIN IN PRETTY AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE
GENERAL LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING ACROSS THE MID WESTERN CONUS...PRIMARILY OVER
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER
WEATHER WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS
TIME...IN THE FORM OF A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TAKE AWHILE TO REACH OUR AREA...AS THE RIDGE COULD BE QUITE
STRONG AND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ONLY SLOWLY DISPLACED. IT APPEARS
THE UPPER PLAINS LOW WILL FINALLY GAIN ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO PUSH
EASTWARD BEGINNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED
TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...DRAGGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THERE WERE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT OVERALL THEY WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS
COLD FRONT. AS WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE ON THURSDAY...WE CAN EXPECTED A FLUX OF MOISTURE
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ONCE THIS MOIST AIR
INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BREAK OUT ALONG IT. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LIMITED AT THIS
POINT...SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WAS INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST. THE BULK OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR WOULD LIKELY DO SO
DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. A STRONG
RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO BEGIN THE
WEEKEND. THIS...ALONG WITH STRENGTH OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW...SHOULD
MAKE FOR A FAIRLY QUICK FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 904 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...SOME
PATCHY LIFR FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP...MAINLY IN THE DEEPER RIVER
VALLEYS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. THIS WILL LIKELY AVOID THE TAF SITES
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SJS...WHERE A PERIOD OF LIFR IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DROP CEILINGS
DOWN IN THE 3 TO 4K FEET AGL RANGE AT TIMES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
904 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP ALONG THE KY/VA/TN BORDER...WITH
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY INITIATING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WHERE
A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS NOSING IN FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
ACTIVITY...SLOWLY DIMINISHING IT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE
SOUTHEASTERN TERRAIN SHOWERS SEEM TO BE A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...SO
HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM NOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AS THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
AS OF MID AFTERNOON AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO REGION. A WEAK UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE IA/IL
BORDER WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WAS
NEARING THE NORTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED NORTH FROM MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUING TO MEANDER ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA REGION.
IN RATHER WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR...VERY
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT THESE REMAIN RATHER SPARSE.
TONIGHT...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE COMMONWEALTH. AT THE
SAME TIME...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
OH VALLEY REGION AS THE WEAK CLOSED LOW OPENS UP. THIS COMBINATION
SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS LOW CLOUDS AT
TIMES AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES WHERE CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR MAY
NOT EXPERIENCE MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON
MONDAY. THE DEEPEST THE MOISTURE WILL GET SHOULD BE EARLY ON MONDAY
AND AT THAT POINT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE GREATEST AT THAT
POINT...AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WERE USED FOR MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. EVEN ALONG THE VA
BORDER...HOWEVER... ONLY 40 PERCENT POPS WERE USED. MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST FROM THE CREST OF THE SMOKIES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND PIEDMONT.
THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT ANY RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH FOR ONE INITIALLY IN THE EVENING.
CLOUDS...LINGERING MOISTURE AND MORNING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD LIMIT MAX T ON MONDAY AND HAVE GENERALLY
UNDERCUT THE MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS ACROSS THIS REGION.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...WITH THE
AXIS DEPARTING TO THE EAST AROUND SUNSET ON MONDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINNING TO APPROACH
LATE. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LATE MORNING OR
MIDDAY ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE CLOUDS MAY HANG ON EVEN
LONGER NEARER TO THE VA BORDER. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE
FOR A SMALL RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG...POSSIBLY
DENSE IN A FEW SPOTS...AND THE COLDEST MIN T IN THE VALLEYS NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY...WHICH HAS BEEN COMMON AS OF LATE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
THE MODELS WERE AGAIN IN PRETTY AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE
GENERAL LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING ACROSS THE MID WESTERN CONUS...PRIMARILY OVER
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER
WEATHER WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS
TIME...IN THE FORM OF A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TAKE AWHILE TO REACH OUR AREA...AS THE RIDGE COULD BE QUITE
STRONG AND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ONLY SLOWLY DISPLACED. IT APPEARS
THE UPPER PLAINS LOW WILL FINALLY GAIN ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO PUSH
EASTWARD BEGINNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED
TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...DRAGGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THERE WERE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT OVERALL THEY WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS
COLD FRONT. AS WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE ON THURSDAY...WE CAN EXPECTED A FLUX OF MOISTURE
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ONCE THIS MOIST AIR
INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BREAK OUT ALONG IT. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LIMITED AT THIS
POINT...SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WAS INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST. THE BULK OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR WOULD LIKELY DO SO
DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. A STRONG
RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO BEGIN THE
WEEKEND. THIS...ALONG WITH STRENGTH OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW...SHOULD
MAKE FOR A FAIRLY QUICK FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 904 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...SOME
PATCHY LIFR FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP...MAINLY IN THE DEEPER RIVER
VALLEYS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. THIS WILL LIKELY AVOID THE TAF SITES
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SJS...WHERE A PERIOD OF LIFR IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DROP CEILINGS
DOWN IN THE 3 TO 4K FEET AGL RANGE AT TIMES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1129 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER RAPIDLY OVERTAKING THE REGION THIS MORNING...AS A
PAIR OF UPPER DISTURBANCES /ONE OVER S TX AND THE OTHER OVER THE
ERN HIGH PLAINS/ CONTINUE TO INCH EWD. MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH EWD
MOVEMENT ON THE SRN LOW UNTIL TONIGHT/SUNDAY...BUT WV IMAGERY
SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT IT IS ALREADY MAKING A MOVE. THIS COULD
BRING A FEW SHWRS...SO 20 POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED. 24-HOUR TEMP
TRENDS A FEW DEGREES ON THE NEGATIVE SIDE OVER PARTS OF E
TX...LIKELY DUE TO CLOUD COVER. HAVE ADJUSTED DOWN OVER THESE
AREAS AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREAS AS IS. HAVE ALSO MADE A
FEW TWEAKS TO THE SKY GRIDS. OTHERWISE...GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. /12/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/
AVIATION...
EXPECTING VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR TERMINAL SITES ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ENDING 28/12Z. MAINLY HIGH AND MIDDLE CLOUDS
SPREADING OVER THE REGION WITH SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES FROM SOME OF THE
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING WITH INFLUENCE FROM AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTING INTO THE REGION. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 4-5 KFT DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY AND
LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS NORTHEAST TO EAST 5-10
KNOTS. /06/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/
DISCUSSION...
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOTS OF TEMPERATURES RANGING IN
THE 60S...BUT THERE ARE A FEW UPPER 50S NORTH OF I-30. OUR DEW
POINTS ARE COMING UP A BIT...BUT STILL A GOOD SPREAD WITH NO FOG
ISSUES EXCEPT AT THE COOLER SITE IN DE QUEEN. LAST NIGHT/S
SOUNDING IS RIGHT AT AN INCH OF PWAT AND THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS
ARE SHOWING UP ON THE SHV 88D JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA. THE RADAR
HAS BEEN OUT OF CLEAR AIR AND IN PRECIP MODE FOR MORE THAN A HALF
HOUR NOW WITH RAIN ON THE GROUND OUT OF MOSTLY MID DECK FROM SAT
TO ATT. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE RIO GRANDE IS BEING KICKED OUT A
BIT THIS MORNING BY THE LONG WAVE OVER THE WEST COAST. THE TEXAS
LOW IS IN FUJIWHARA MODE WITH THE MIDWEST LOW ALL ROTATING UNDER
THE BIG RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER AND SE CANADA. THE DIGGING
UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA IS STILL TRYING TO MOVE SE...BUT APPEARS
TO HAVE MORE AN EASTWARD PUSH. AS THE LOW TO OUR SW CONTINUES TO
ROTATE UNDER THE MID WEST LOW IS SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO OUR
PERIOD OF HEATING AND EDGE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WHILE WASHING OUT ON
THE RIDGE. A MIX OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
RESULT DESPITE LIMITED MODEL QPF.
THE HRRR WAS THE MOST INTERESTING AND WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR
TODAY. THE NAM WAS THE WARMEST AND MOS PERHAPS TOO COOL SO WE HAVE
SETTLED SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN IN OUR FORECAST. THE MODELS REALLY DO
NOT PICK ON MUCH OF ANY QPF AND MAY PLAY CATCH UP WITH THIS NEXT
RUN FOLLOWING OUR ASCENT IN THE COMING HOUR.
AT ANY RATE THE FORECAST CONTINUES AS PLANNED WITH MORE TYPICALLY
DRY LATE SUMMER READINGS IN THE COMING DAYS. THE MEX IS LOOKING AT
A COUPLE OR FEW DAYS OF LOWER 90S. THE NEXT REAL DEAL COLD FRONT
IS MODELED WELL ON THE GFS AND IS OUR MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THE LONG
RANGE WITH NORTHERLY WINDS FILTERING IN LATE IN THE WEEK FOR A
FANTASTIC FOOTBALL FRIDAY NIGHT. HOPEFULLY THE WPC 1 TO TWO INCH
RAIN FOR OUR AREAS HOLDS TRUE OTHERWISE WE MAY BE LOOKING AT MORE
BURN BANS FOR THE FALL SEASON. /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 86 66 89 66 89 / 20 20 10 10 10
MLU 86 66 85 64 87 / 10 20 20 10 10
DEQ 85 63 86 61 87 / 10 10 10 10 10
TXK 85 64 86 63 87 / 20 10 10 10 10
ELD 85 63 86 62 86 / 10 20 10 10 10
TYR 85 66 88 65 88 / 20 10 10 10 10
GGG 86 65 88 63 89 / 20 10 10 10 10
LFK 86 66 89 65 91 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
711 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014
.AVIATION...
EXPECTING VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR TERMINAL SITES ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ENDING 28/12Z. MAINLY HIGH AND MIDDLE CLOUDS
SPREADING OVER THE REGION WITH SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES FROM SOME OF THE
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING WITH INFLUENCE FROM AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTING INTO THE REGION. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 4-5 KFT DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY AND
LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS NORTHEAST TO EAST 5-10
KNOTS. /06/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/
DISCUSSION...
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOTS OF TEMPERATURES RANGING IN
THE 60S...BUT THERE ARE A FEW UPPER 50S NORTH OF I-30. OUR DEW
POINTS ARE COMING UP A BIT...BUT STILL A GOOD SPREAD WITH NO FOG
ISSUES EXCEPT AT THE COOLER SITE IN DEQUEEN. LAST NIGHT/S
SOUNDING IS RIGHT AT AN INCH OF PWAT AND THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS
ARE SHOWING UP ON THE SHV 88D JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA. THE RADAR
HAS BEEN OUT OF CLEAR AIR AND IN PRECIP MODE FOR MORE THAN A HALF
HOUR NOW WITH RAIN ON THE GROUND OUT OF MOSTLY MID DECK FROM SAT
TO ATT. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE RIO GRANDE IS BEING KICKED OUT A
BIT THIS MORNING BY THE LONG WAVE OVER THE WEST COAST. THE TEXAS
LOW IS IN FUJIWHARA MODE WITH THE MIDWEST LOW ALL ROTATING UNDER
THE BIG RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER AND SE CANADA. THE DIGGING
UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA IS STILL TRYING TO MOVE SE...BUT APPEARS
TO HAVE MORE AN EASTWARD PUSH. AS THE LOW TO OUR SW CONTINUES TO
ROTATE UNDER THE MID WEST LOW IS SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO OUR
PERIOD OF HEATING AND EDGE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WHILE WASHING OUT ON
THE RIDGE. A MIX OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
RESULT DESPITE LIMITED MODEL QPF.
THE HRRR WAS THE MOST INTERESTING AND WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR
TODAY. THE NAM WAS THE WARMEST AND MOS PERHAPS TOO COOL SO WE HAVE
SETTLED SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN IN OUR FORECAST. THE MODELS REALLY DO
NOT PICK ON MUCH OF ANY QPF AND MAY PLAY CATCH UP WITH THIS NEXT
RUN FOLLOWING OUR ASCENT IN THE COMING HOUR.
AT ANY RATE THE FORECAST CONTINUES AS PLANNED WITH MORE TYPICALLY
DRY LATE SUMMER READINGS IN THE COMING DAYS. THE MEX IS LOOKING AT
A COUPLE OR FEW DAYS OF LOWER 90S. THE NEXT REAL DEAL COLD FRONT
IS MODELED WELL ON THE GFS AND IS OUR MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THE LONG
RANGE WITH NORTHERLY WINDS FILTERING IN LATE IN THE WEEK FOR A
FANTASTIC FOOTBALL FRIDAY NIGHT. HOPEFULLY THE WPC 1 TO TWO INCH
RAIN FOR OUR AREAS HOLDS TRUE OTHERWISE WE MAY BE LOOKING AT MORE
BURN BANS FOR THE FALL SEASON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 89 66 89 66 89 / 20 20 10 10 10
MLU 87 66 85 64 87 / 10 20 20 10 10
DEQ 85 63 86 61 87 / 10 10 10 10 10
TXK 85 64 86 63 87 / 20 10 10 10 10
ELD 86 63 86 62 86 / 10 20 10 10 10
TYR 87 66 88 65 88 / 20 10 10 10 10
GGG 88 65 88 63 89 / 20 10 10 10 10
LFK 88 66 89 65 91 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
530 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOTS OF TEMPERATURES RANGING IN
THE 60S...BUT THERE ARE A FEW UPPER 50S NORTH OF I-30. OUR DEW
POINTS ARE COMING UP A BIT...BUT STILL A GOOD SPREAD WITH NO FOG
ISSUES EXCEPT AT THE COOLER SITE IN DEQUEEN. LAST NIGHT/S
SOUNDING IS RIGHT AT AN INCH OF PWAT AND THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS
ARE SHOWING UP ON THE SHV 88D JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA. THE RADAR
HAS BEEN OUT OF CLEAR AIR AND IN PRECIP MODE FOR MORE THAN A HALF
HOUR NOW WITH RAIN ON THE GROUND OUT OF MOSTLY MID DECK FROM SAT
TO ATT. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE RIO GRANDE IS BEING KICKED OUT A
BIT THIS MORNING BY THE LONG WAVE OVER THE WEST COAST. THE TEXAS
LOW IS IN FUJIWHARA MODE WITH THE MIDWEST LOW ALL ROTATING UNDER
THE BIG RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER AND SE CANADA. THE DIGGING
UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA IS STILL TRYING TO MOVE SE...BUT APPEARS
TO HAVE MORE AN EASTWARD PUSH. AS THE LOW TO OUR SW CONTINUES TO
ROTATE UNDER THE MID WEST LOW IS SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO OUR
PERIOD OF HEATING AND EDGE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WHILE WASHING OUT ON
THE RIDGE. A MIX OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
RESULT DESPITE LIMITED MODEL QPF.
THE HRRR WAS THE MOST INTERESTING AND WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR
TODAY. THE NAM WAS THE WARMEST AND MOS PERHAPS TOO COOL SO WE HAVE
SETTLED SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN IN OUR FORECAST. THE MODELS REALLY DO
NOT PICK ON MUCH OF ANY QPF AND MAY PLAY CATCH UP WITH THIS NEXT
RUN FOLLOWING OUR ASCENT IN THE COMING HOUR.
AT ANY RATE THE FORECAST CONTINUES AS PLANNED WITH MORE TYPICALLY
DRY LATE SUMMER READINGS IN THE COMING DAYS. THE MEX IS LOOKING AT
A COUPLE OR FEW DAYS OF LOWER 90S. THE NEXT REAL DEAL COLD FRONT
IS MODELED WELL ON THE GFS AND IS OUR MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THE LONG
RANGE WITH NORTHERLY WINDS FILTERING IN LATE IN THE WEEK FOR A
FANTASTIC FOOTBALL FRIDAY NIGHT. HOPEFULLY THE WPC 1 TO TWO INCH
RAIN FOR OUR AREAS HOLDS TRUE OTHERWISE WE MAY BE LOOKING AT MORE
BURN BANS FOR THE FALL SEASON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 89 66 89 66 89 / 20 20 10 10 10
MLU 87 66 85 64 87 / 10 20 20 10 10
DEQ 85 63 86 61 87 / 10 10 10 10 10
TXK 85 64 86 63 87 / 20 10 10 10 10
ELD 86 63 86 62 86 / 10 20 10 10 10
TYR 87 66 88 65 88 / 20 10 10 10 10
GGG 88 65 88 63 89 / 20 10 10 10 10
LFK 88 66 89 65 91 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
349 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014
...ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IN STORE FOR SUNDAY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A STRONG RIDGE OVER MUCH
OF THE E HALF OF THE CONUS. 585-588 DECAMETER 5H HIGHS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES HAVE RESULTED IN INLAND HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
ANOTHER QUIET/CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER
THAN SATURDAY MORNINGS MINS DUE TO SOME INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER. EXPECT MORE SHALLOW FOG FORMATION MAINLY WELL INLAND FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR. DOWNSLOPING SOUTHERLY WIND AND ASSOC MIXING SHOULD
GENERALLY PROHIBIT FOG FORMATION NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
EXPECT ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY ON SUNDAY. MIXING 850 MB OF
13-14C TO SFC SHOULD AGAIN YIELD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S. ONSHORE SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS
AROUND 70S ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE. KEPT IN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SHRA OVER THE NCNTRL FCST AREA WHERE MODELS HINT THAT DEVELOPMENT OF
LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE BREEZE COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISOLD
CONVECTION. MODIFIED NAM SOUNDINGS FOR 78/58 YIELD SBCAPE 200-300
J/KG WITH MINIMAL CIN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014
A MORE ACTIVE AND TYPICAL FALL PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MANITOBA WILL BE
INTERACTING WITH A RESIDUAL SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM
NORTH DAKOTA TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY EVENING. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAD BEEN RATHER INCONSISTENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF THE FRONT OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...BUT SOME OF THE 12Z RUNS
TODAY APPEAR TO BE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. THE RECENT NAM AND GEM
RUNS ARE ADVERTISING A SHARPER TROUGH AXIS AND QUICKER PASSAGE MORE
IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. HAD ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT GUIDANCE WAS TRENDING SLOWER WITH YESTERDAYS RUNS...BUT AM
NOW MORE CONVINCED OF THE FASTER SOLUTION GIVEN THE ECMWF
PERSISTENCE. FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME LOOKS TO BE AROUND 00Z MONDAY
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
NIGHT...CLEARING THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CWA SHORTLY AFTER 12Z
MONDAY.
ACTIVE LOW-LEVEL FGEN COMBINED WITH THE SHARP TROUGH AXIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DECENT PRECIP COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT. THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR
TO MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WILL BE LESSENING UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AS
THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE OF THE JET SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS WILL KEEP THE
BEST COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI. ONLY MADE
SOME SMALL CHANGES TO THE POPS FOR MONDAY...KEEPING LIKELY POPS
CONFINED TO MAINLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. IN THE MORNING AND
ALONG NE UPSLOPE AREAS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BLUSTERY NE WINDS WILL
COMMENCE BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH HALF. HIGHS TEMPS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE CWA....WITH TEMPS NORTHWEST
IN THE 40S AND SOUTHEST IN THE 50S BY THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL PRECIP WILL CLEAR
THE CWA BY MONDAY EVENING WHILE MID-LEVEL RIDHING SHIFT ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC. THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT GIVEN PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DECENT
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. CONTINUED NE UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH THE
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN LINGER SHOWERS/DRIZZLE CENTRAL AND EAST
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOW LONG IT TAKES TO RID
THESE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY IS IN QUESTION. MORNING INVERSION
HEIGHTS OF 2-3KFT WILL TRAP REMAINING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEFORE
MIXING AND THE ARRIVAL OF SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR HELP ERODE
CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS WOULD LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE
EAST LONGER GIVEN THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MOIST NE FLOW FROM THE
MOISTURE POOL.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BE
SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. A
LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS MANITOBA AS AN ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW SEND A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE FRONT
WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE WESTERN CWA 12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE STILL OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...INITIAL MID AND
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE MARGINAL. THEREFORE...PRECIP COVERAGE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WEDNESDAY WILL
REINFORCE THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COMBINED WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET AND INCREASING
LOW TO MID-LEVEL FGEN...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE
IN PRECIP COVERAGE ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS A
TOUCH SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH AND MORE WIDESPREAD WITH PRECIP THAN
THE GFS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE WEST HALF THURSDAY AND THE EAST HALF THURSDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AFTER
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS FORMS A STRONG LOW OVER LAKE HURON WHILE
THE ECMWF FORMS THE LOW CLOSER TO HUDSON BAY. EITHER WAY...THE
OVERALL PICTURE IS A SERIES OF RAW...CHILLY FALL DAYS BEGINNING ON
FRIDAY WITH BLUSTERY NW WINDS AND PLENTY OF WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
BEHIND THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST. IN ADDITION...THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED
PRECIP CHANCES FOR FRIDAY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH INCREASED LAKE MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE SUPPORT. THE
ARRIVAL OF 850 HPA TEMPS OF -3 TO -1C WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS AS SFC-H8 DELTA T VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 10C. THE
COOLEST WIDESPREAD TEMPS OF THE SEASON ARE ALSO EXPECTED AS HIGHS
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S...A STARK DIFFERENCE FROM HIGHS IN
THE 70S THIS SATURDAY/TODAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014
DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR LAKE HURON WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU
THIS FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS...SHALLOW RADIATIONAL FOG WILL DEVELOP AT NIGHT AND AFFECT
KSAW. LOW-LEVEL WINDS TONIGHT WILL HAVE MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY
COMPONENT...SO AT THIS POINT...NOT ANTICIPATING KSAW TO DROP BLO MVFR
LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014
LIGHT WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN CHANGES ARE EXPECTED BY
MONDAY MORNING AS A FRONT WORKS NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS LK SUPERIOR.
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND QUICKLY RAMP UP TO 25-30
KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONGER WINDS CONTINUING INTO
MIDDAY MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST OVER EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR. WHILE THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...AN EXTENDED NW GALE EVENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOMETIME FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH MORE MOIST AIR BEGINNING TO WORK NORTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVER MAINLY NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
252 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014
...ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM LATE SEPT DAY IS ON THE WAY TODAY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A STRONG RIDGE OVER MUCH
OF THE E HALF OF THE CONUS. CORE OF THE POSITIVE ANOMALIES WITH THE
RIDGE IS OVER NRN ONTARIO WHERE ANOMALIES ARE 2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE LONG TERM LATE SEPT AVG. WITHIN THE RIDGE...A
WEAK MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER IS
GENERATING ISOLD SHRA/TSRA OVER IA INTO SW MN. CLOSER TO HOME...THE
WEATHER REMAINS QUIET. TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THIS TYPE
OF WEATHER PATTERN THAT FEATURES QUIET/CLEAR NIGHTS...SHALLOW FOG
HAS AGAIN FORMED...MAINLY OVER SCNTRL AND ERN UPPER MI AND
ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVERS/LAKES/STREAMS.
WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN AIR MASS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTEDAY...
TODAY WILL BE A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAYS WEATHER. MIXING TO
AROUND 850MB SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S TO THE LWR 80S
AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION WHICH SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. GIVEN THE SIMILAR AIR MASS CHARACTERISTICS...
SIMPLY USED YESTERDAYS OBSERVED MAX TEMPS FOR TODAYS FCST WITH A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. DIURNAL TEMP RISE SHOULD BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO
YESTERDAYS AS WELL...SO UTILIZED YESTERDAYS DIURNAL TEMP CURVE FOR
HOURLY TEMPS. SHALLOW FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.
ANOTHER QUIET/CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN THIS MORNINGS MINS DUE TO SOME INCREASE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER. SHALLOW FOG SHOULD MAKE ANOTHER APPEARANCE IN
GENERALLY THE SAME AREAS THAT IT HAS APPEARED IN RECENT NIGHTS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014
GOOD AGREEMENT IN OVERALL LOOK OF LARGER SCALE PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK. MAIN ISSUE REMAINS TIMING OF FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. ECMWF HAS STEADILY TRENDED TOWARD QUICKER FROPA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH NNE WINDS OVER ALL OF UPR MICHIGAN BY 12Z MONDAY. NAM AND
GFS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AND TREND FROM GFS IS MAINLY SLOWER...THOUGH
00Z RUN IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH FRONT BUT KEEPS MOST RAIN OUT OF CWA
UNTIL AFTER 12Z MONDAY. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FROPA IS TIED TO
HOW MUCH JET ENERGY DIGS INTO BACKSIDE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING
NORTHERN ONTARIO. ECMWF SHOWS STRONGER JET/MORE AMPLFIED TROUGH
WHILE GFS AND GEM-NH SHOW MORE OF THE JET ENERGY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AND THUS A FLATTER MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ALOFT. TOUGH TO SAY WHICH
IDEA IS RIGHT. MORE AMPLIED IDEA SEEMS GOOD AS MAIN SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA IS QUITE SHARP PER WV LOOP AND 00Z
RAOBS...BUT A MORE STRUNG OUT SHORTWAVE COULD ALSO OCCUR AS THE
RIDGE IT WILL BE DROPPING TOWARDS IS UNSEASONABLY STRONG WITH
590DAM HEIGHTS FM DAKOTAS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AND LOWER GREAT LAKES.
CONSENSUS OF ALL MODELS AND THE CURRENT FORECAST POINTS TO FROPA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL HEAD THIS WAY AS WELL. RESULT
WILL BE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO MONDAY...LIKELY TURNING INTO
MORE OF A STRATIFORM RAIN BOOSTED BY H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH
THE SHORTWAVE AND ADDITIONAL LIFT WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET
STREAK FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO QUEBEC. SHALLOW COOL/MOIST FLOW
UPSLOPING INTO HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR LK SUPERIOR ONLY ADDS TO THE RAIN
CHANCES. TEMPS WILL EXHIBIT SHARP GRADIENT BTWN WHERE THE SUB H9 FLOW
IS STIFF ONSHORE AND WHERE MIXING TO H9 AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPS TO REACH NEAR 70 OVER THE SCNTRL. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH TO
PROBABLY AREAS OF DRIZZLE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ADVANCES FURTHER INTO THE AREA. COOL TEMPS
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS STAY
ONSHORE ALL DAY.
RIDGING BUILDS BACK ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY AS TROUGHING EXPANDS OVER
WESTERN CONUS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE AN IN BTWN DAY AND COULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE EAST HALF. HIGH TEMPS WARMING
BACK INTO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY...WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...TOUCHING 70
DEGREES. LEADING SHORTWAVE EMERGING FM WEST CONUS TROUGH COULD BRING
SOME SHOWERS TO PARTS OF CWA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. GREATEST CHANCES
OF RAIN LIKELY HOLD OFF TIL THURSDAY AS STRONGER FORCING ALOFT
COMBINES WITH MORE OF A LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODEL CONSISTENCY
IS SHAKY SO WILL NOT ALTER THE CONSENSUS POPS. INCLUDED SMALL CHANCES
FOR THUNDER ON THURSDAY AS THERE IS AT LEAST A BRIEF INTERLUDE OF
INSTABILITY WORKING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014
DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR LAKE HURON WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU
THIS FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS...SHALLOW RADIATIONAL FOG WILL DEVELOP AT NIGHT AND AFFECT
KSAW. LOW-LEVEL WINDS TONIGHT WILL HAVE MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY
COMPONENT...SO AT THIS POINT...NOT ANTICIPATING KSAW TO DROP BLO MVFR
LATE TONIGHT. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014
LIGHT WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN CHANGES ARE EXPECTED BY
MONDAY MORNING AS A FRONT WORKS NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS LK SUPERIOR.
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND QUICKLY RAMP UP TO 25-30
KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONGER WINDS CONTINUING INTO
MIDDAY MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST OVER EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR.
WITH MORE MOIST AIR BEGINNING TO WORK NORTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVER MAINLY NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
740 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014
...ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM LATE SEPT DAY IS ON THE WAY TODAY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A STRONG RIDGE OVER MUCH
OF THE E HALF OF THE CONUS. CORE OF THE POSITIVE ANOMALIES WITH THE
RIDGE IS OVER NRN ONTARIO WHERE ANOMALIES ARE 2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE LONG TERM LATE SEPT AVG. WITHIN THE RIDGE...A
WEAK MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER IS
GENERATING ISOLD SHRA/TSRA OVER IA INTO SW MN. CLOSER TO HOME...THE
WEATHER REMAINS QUIET. TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THIS TYPE
OF WEATHER PATTERN THAT FEATURES QUIET/CLEAR NIGHTS...SHALLOW FOG
HAS AGAIN FORMED...MAINLY OVER SCNTRL AND ERN UPPER MI AND
ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVERS/LAKES/STREAMS.
WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN AIR MASS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTEDAY...
TODAY WILL BE A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAYS WEATHER. MIXING TO
AROUND 850MB SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S TO THE LWR 80S
AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION WHICH SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. GIVEN THE SIMILAR AIR MASS CHARACTERISTICS...
SIMPLY USED YESTERDAYS OBSERVED MAX TEMPS FOR TODAYS FCST WITH A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. DIURNAL TEMP RISE SHOULD BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO
YESTERDAYS AS WELL...SO UTILIZED YESTERDAYS DIURNAL TEMP CURVE FOR
HOURLY TEMPS. SHALLOW FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.
ANOTHER QUIET/CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN THIS MORNINGS MINS DUE TO SOME INCREASE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER. SHALLOW FOG SHOULD MAKE ANOTHER APPEARANCE IN
GENERALLY THE SAME AREAS THAT IT HAS APPEARED IN RECENT NIGHTS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014
GOOD AGREEMENT IN OVERALL LOOK OF LARGER SCALE PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK. MAIN ISSUE REMAINS TIMING OF FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. ECMWF HAS STEADILY TRENDED TOWARD QUICKER FROPA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH NNE WINDS OVER ALL OF UPR MICHIGAN BY 12Z MONDAY. NAM AND
GFS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AND TREND FROM GFS IS MAINLY SLOWER...THOUGH
00Z RUN IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH FRONT BUT KEEPS MOST RAIN OUT OF CWA
UNTIL AFTER 12Z MONDAY. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FROPA IS TIED TO
HOW MUCH JET ENERGY DIGS INTO BACKSIDE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING
NORTHERN ONTARIO. ECMWF SHOWS STRONGER JET/MORE AMPLFIED TROUGH
WHILE GFS AND GEM-NH SHOW MORE OF THE JET ENERGY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AND THUS A FLATTER MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ALOFT. TOUGH TO SAY WHICH
IDEA IS RIGHT. MORE AMPLIED IDEA SEEMS GOOD AS MAIN SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA IS QUITE SHARP PER WV LOOP AND 00Z
RAOBS...BUT A MORE STRUNG OUT SHORTWAVE COULD ALSO OCCUR AS THE
RIDGE IT WILL BE DROPPING TOWARDS IS UNSEASONABLY STRONG WITH
590DAM HEIGHTS FM DAKOTAS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AND LOWER GREAT LAKES.
CONSENSUS OF ALL MODELS AND THE CURRENT FORECAST POINTS TO FROPA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL HEAD THIS WAY AS WELL. RESULT
WILL BE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO MONDAY...LIKELY TURNING INTO
MORE OF A STRATIFORM RAIN BOOSTED BY H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH
THE SHORTWAVE AND ADDITIONAL LIFT WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET
STREAK FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO QUEBEC. SHALLOW COOL/MOIST FLOW
UPSLOPING INTO HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR LK SUPERIOR ONLY ADDS TO THE RAIN
CHANCES. TEMPS WILL EXHIBIT SHARP GRADIENT BTWN WHERE THE SUB H9 FLOW
IS STIFF ONSHORE AND WHERE MIXING TO H9 AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPS TO REACH NEAR 70 OVER THE SCNTRL. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH TO
PROBABLY AREAS OF DRIZZLE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ADVANCES FURTHER INTO THE AREA. COOL TEMPS
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS STAY
ONSHORE ALL DAY.
RIDGING BUILDS BACK ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY AS TROUGHING EXPANDS OVER
WESTERN CONUS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE AN IN BTWN DAY AND COULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE EAST HALF. HIGH TEMPS WARMING
BACK INTO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY...WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...TOUCHING 70
DEGREES. LEADING SHORTWAVE EMERGING FM WEST CONUS TROUGH COULD BRING
SOME SHOWERS TO PARTS OF CWA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. GREATEST CHANCES
OF RAIN LIKELY HOLD OFF TIL THURSDAY AS STRONGER FORCING ALOFT
COMBINES WITH MORE OF A LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODEL CONSISTENCY
IS SHAKY SO WILL NOT ALTER THE CONSENSUS POPS. INCLUDED SMALL CHANCES
FOR THUNDER ON THURSDAY AS THERE IS AT LEAST A BRIEF INTERLUDE OF
INSTABILITY WORKING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 739 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014
DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR LAKE HURON WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU
THIS FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS...SHALLOW RADIATIONAL FOG WILL DEVELOP AT NIGHT AND AFFECT
KSAW. LIFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AT KSAW WILL QUICKLY
IMPROVE TO VFR WITHIN AN HR OR TWO OF SUNRISE. LOW-LEVEL WINDS
TONIGHT WILL HAVE MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY COMPONENT...SO AT
THIS POINT...NOT ANTICIPATING KSAW TO DROP BLO MVFR LATE TONIGHT.
THIS AFTN...GUSTY SSW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT KIWD AND PERHAPS KSAW
WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014
LIGHT WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN CHANGES ARE EXPECTED BY
MONDAY MORNING AS A FRONT WORKS NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS LK SUPERIOR.
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND QUICKLY RAMP UP TO 25-30
KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONGER WINDS CONTINUING INTO
MIDDAY MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST OVER EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR.
WITH MORE MOIST AIR BEGINNING TO WORK NORTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVER MAINLY NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
442 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014
...ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM LATE SEPT DAY IS ON THE WAY TODAY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A STRONG RIDGE OVER MUCH
OF THE E HALF OF THE CONUS. CORE OF THE POSITIVE ANOMALIES WITH THE
RIDGE IS OVER NRN ONTARIO WHERE ANOMALIES ARE 2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE LONG TERM LATE SEPT AVG. WITHIN THE RIDGE...A
WEAK MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER IS
GENERATING ISOLD SHRA/TSRA OVER IA INTO SW MN. CLOSER TO HOME...THE
WEATHER REMAINS QUIET. TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THIS TYPE
OF WEATHER PATTERN THAT FEATURES QUIET/CLEAR NIGHTS...SHALLOW FOG
HAS AGAIN FORMED...MAINLY OVER SCNTRL AND ERN UPPER MI AND
ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVERS/LAKES/STREAMS.
WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN AIR MASS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTEDAY...
TODAY WILL BE A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAYS WEATHER. MIXING TO
AROUND 850MB SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S TO THE LWR 80S
AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION WHICH SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. GIVEN THE SIMILAR AIR MASS CHARACTERISTICS...
SIMPLY USED YESTERDAYS OBSERVED MAX TEMPS FOR TODAYS FCST WITH A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. DIURNAL TEMP RISE SHOULD BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO
YESTERDAYS AS WELL...SO UTILIZED YESTERDAYS DIURNAL TEMP CURVE FOR
HOURLY TEMPS. SHALLOW FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.
ANOTHER QUIET/CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN THIS MORNINGS MINS DUE TO SOME INCREASE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER. SHALLOW FOG SHOULD MAKE ANOTHER APPEARANCE IN
GENERALLY THE SAME AREAS THAT IT HAS APPEARED IN RECENT NIGHTS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014
GOOD AGREEMENT IN OVERALL LOOK OF LARGER SCALE PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK. MAIN ISSUE REMAINS TIMING OF FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. ECMWF HAS STEADILY TRENDED TOWARD QUICKER FROPA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH NNE WINDS OVER ALL OF UPR MICHIGAN BY 12Z MONDAY. NAM AND
GFS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AND TREND FROM GFS IS MAINLY SLOWER...THOUGH
00Z RUN IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH FRONT BUT KEEPS MOST RAIN OUT OF CWA
UNTIL AFTER 12Z MONDAY. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FROPA IS TIED TO
HOW MUCH JET ENERGY DIGS INTO BACKSIDE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING
NORTHERN ONTARIO. ECMWF SHOWS STRONGER JET/MORE AMPLFIED TROUGH
WHILE GFS AND GEM-NH SHOW MORE OF THE JET ENERGY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AND THUS A FLATTER MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ALOFT. TOUGH TO SAY WHICH
IDEA IS RIGHT. MORE AMPLIED IDEA SEEMS GOOD AS MAIN SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA IS QUITE SHARP PER WV LOOP AND 00Z
RAOBS...BUT A MORE STRUNG OUT SHORTWAVE COULD ALSO OCCUR AS THE
RIDGE IT WILL BE DROPPING TOWARDS IS UNSEASONABLY STRONG WITH
590DAM HEIGHTS FM DAKOTAS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AND LOWER GREAT LAKES.
CONSENSUS OF ALL MODELS AND THE CURRENT FORECAST POINTS TO FROPA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL HEAD THIS WAY AS WELL. RESULT
WILL BE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO MONDAY...LIKELY TURNING INTO
MORE OF A STRATIFORM RAIN BOOSTED BY H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH
THE SHORTWAVE AND ADDITIONAL LIFT WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET
STREAK FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO QUEBEC. SHALLOW COOL/MOIST FLOW
UPSLOPING INTO HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR LK SUPERIOR ONLY ADDS TO THE RAIN
CHANCES. TEMPS WILL EXHIBIT SHARP GRADIENT BTWN WHERE THE SUB H9 FLOW
IS STIFF ONSHORE AND WHERE MIXING TO H9 AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPS TO REACH NEAR 70 OVER THE SCNTRL. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH TO
PROBABLY AREAS OF DRIZZLE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ADVANCES FURTHER INTO THE AREA. COOL TEMPS
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS STAY
ONSHORE ALL DAY.
RIDGING BUILDS BACK ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY AS TROUGHING EXPANDS OVER
WESTERN CONUS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE AN IN BTWN DAY AND COULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE EAST HALF. HIGH TEMPS WARMING
BACK INTO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY...WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...TOUCHING 70
DEGREES. LEADING SHORTWAVE EMERGING FM WEST CONUS TROUGH COULD BRING
SOME SHOWERS TO PARTS OF CWA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. GREATEST CHANCES
OF RAIN LIKELY HOLD OFF TIL THURSDAY AS STRONGER FORCING ALOFT
COMBINES WITH MORE OF A LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODEL CONSISTENCY
IS SHAKY SO WILL NOT ALTER THE CONSENSUS POPS. INCLUDED SMALL CHANCES
FOR THUNDER ON THURSDAY AS THERE IS AT LEAST A BRIEF INTERLUDE OF
INSTABILITY WORKING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014
PLENTY OF DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HI PRES CENTERED NEAR LK HURON
WILL BRING PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 SITES THIS FCST
PERIOD. FOG...WITH POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS...IS POSSIBLE AT SAW TOWARD
SUNRISE. A BIT STRONGER SSW FLOW WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AT
CMX AND IWD. GUSTY SSW WINDS WILL DVLP AT IWD AND PERHAPS SAW IN THE
AFTN WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014
LIGHT WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN CHANGES ARE EXPECTED BY
MONDAY MORNING AS A FRONT WORKS NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS LK SUPERIOR.
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND QUICKLY RAMP UP TO 25-30
KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONGER WINDS CONTINUING INTO
MIDDAY MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST OVER EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR.
WITH MORE MOIST AIR BEGINNING TO WORK NORTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVER MAINLY NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
357 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR
THE WEST COAST AND A PROMINENT RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO NRN
ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...WEAK SRLY FLOW WAS OBSERVED THROUGH WI AND
UPPER MI BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER LAKE HURON AND A TROUGH THROUGH THE
WRN PLAINS. VIS LOOP INDICATED SCT CU UPSTREAM OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. OTHERWISE...COMPLETELY CLEAR
SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. DEWPOINTS WERE GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER 50S...WITH SOME HIGHER VALUES IN THE MID 50S OVER THE EAST
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
TONIGHT...WITH THE UPPER AND SFC RIDGE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
AREA...EXPECT FOG TO REDEVELOP IN AREAS SIMILAR TO THU NIGHT...WITH
THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES OVER THE CNTRAL AND EAST AND ESPECIALLY
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
SAT...A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
FAR NRN ONTARIO TO SRN HUDSON BAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TO NEAR
CYPL. SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT WILL KEEP THE WARM AIR ACROSS THE
CWA. AFTER ANY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF...SUNNY SKIES WILL AGAIN
DOMINATE THE AREA. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MIXING TO AROUND 850
MB (TEMPS AROUND 14C) WILL SUPPORT MAX READINGS INT THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80.
&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014
GOOD AGREEMENT IN OVERALL LOOK OF LARGER SCALE PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK. MAIN ISSUE REMAINS TIMING OF FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. ECMWF HAS STEADILY TRENDED TOWARD QUICKER FROPA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH NNE WINDS OVER ALL OF UPR MICHIGAN BY 12Z MONDAY. NAM AND
GFS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AND TREND FROM GFS IS MAINLY SLOWER...THOUGH
00Z RUN IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH FRONT BUT KEEPS MOST RAIN OUT OF CWA
UNTIL AFTER 12Z MONDAY. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FROPA IS TIED TO
HOW MUCH JET ENERGY DIGS INTO BACKSIDE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING
NORTHERN ONTARIO. ECMWF SHOWS STRONGER JET/MORE AMPLFIED TROUGH
WHILE GFS AND GEM-NH SHOW MORE OF THE JET ENERGY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AND THUS A FLATTER MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ALOFT. TOUGH TO SAY WHICH
IDEA IS RIGHT. MORE AMPLIED IDEA SEEMS GOOD AS MAIN SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA IS QUITE SHARP PER WV LOOP AND 00Z
RAOBS...BUT A MORE STRUNG OUT SHORTWAVE COULD ALSO OCCUR AS THE
RIDGE IT WILL BE DROPPING TOWARDS IS UNSEASONABLY STRONG WITH
590DAM HEIGHTS FM DAKOTAS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AND LOWER GREAT LAKES.
CONSENSUS OF ALL MODELS AND THE CURRENT FORECAST POINTS TO FROPA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL HEAD THIS WAY AS WELL. RESULT
WILL BE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO MONDAY...LIKELY TURNING INTO
MORE OF A STRATIFORM RAIN BOOSTED BY H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH
THE SHORTWAVE AND ADDITIONAL LIFT WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET
STREAK FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO QUEBEC. SHALLOW COOL/MOIST FLOW
UPSLOPING INTO HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR LK SUPERIOR ONLY ADDS TO THE RAIN
CHANCES. TEMPS WILL EXHIBIT SHARP GRADIENT BTWN WHERE THE SUB H9 FLOW
IS STIFF ONSHORE AND WHERE MIXING TO H9 AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPS TO REACH NEAR 70 OVER THE SCNTRL. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH TO
PROBABLY AREAS OF DRIZZLE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ADVANCES FURTHER INTO THE AREA. COOL TEMPS
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS STAY
ONSHORE ALL DAY.
RIDGING BUILDS BACK ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY AS TROUGHING EXPANDS OVER
WESTERN CONUS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE AN IN BTWN DAY AND COULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE EAST HALF. HIGH TEMPS WARMING
BACK INTO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY...WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...TOUCHING 70
DEGREES. LEADING SHORTWAVE EMERGING FM WEST CONUS TROUGH COULD BRING
SOME SHOWERS TO PARTS OF CWA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. GREATEST CHANCES
OF RAIN LIKELY HOLD OFF TIL THURSDAY AS STRONGER FORCING ALOFT
COMBINES WITH MORE OF A LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODEL CONSISTENCY
IS SHAKY SO WILL NOT ALTER THE CONSENSUS POPS. INCLUDED SMALL CHANCES
FOR THUNDER ON THURSDAY AS THERE IS AT LEAST A BRIEF INTERLUDE OF
INSTABILITY WORKING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014
PLENTY OF DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HI PRES CENTERED NEAR LK HURON
WILL BRING PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 SITES THIS FCST
PERIOD. FOG...WITH POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS...IS POSSIBLE AT SAW TOWARD
SUNRISE. A BIT STRONGER SSW FLOW WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AT
CMX AND IWD. GUSTY SSW WINDS WILL DVLP AT IWD AND PERHAPS SAW IN THE
AFTN WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014
LIGHT WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN CHANGES ARE EXPECTED BY
MONDAY MORNING AS A FRONT WORKS NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS LK SUPERIOR.
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND QUICKLY RAMP UP TO 25-30
KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONGER WINDS CONTINUING INTO
MIDDAY MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST OVER EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR.
WITH MORE MOIST AIR BEGINNING TO WORK NORTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVER MAINLY NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
113 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR
THE WEST COAST AND A PROMINENT RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO NRN
ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...WEAK SRLY FLOW WAS OBSERVED THROUGH WI AND
UPPER MI BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER LAKE HURON AND A TROUGH THROUGH THE
WRN PLAINS. VIS LOOP INDICATED SCT CU UPSTREAM OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. OTHERWISE...COMPLETELY CLEAR
SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. DEWPOINTS WERE GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER 50S...WITH SOME HIGHER VALUES IN THE MID 50S OVER THE EAST
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
TONIGHT...WITH THE UPPER AND SFC RIDGE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
AREA...EXPECT FOG TO REDEVELOP IN AREAS SIMILAR TO THU NIGHT...WITH
THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES OVER THE CNTRAL AND EAST AND ESPECIALLY
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
SAT...A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
FAR NRN ONTARIO TO SRN HUDSON BAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TO NEAR
CYPL. SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT WILL KEEP THE WARM AIR ACROSS THE
CWA. AFTER ANY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF...SUNNY SKIES WILL AGAIN
DOMINATE THE AREA. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MIXING TO AROUND 850
MB (TEMPS AROUND 14C) WILL SUPPORT MAX READINGS INT THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80.
&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014
THE RELATIVELY WARM STREAK SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL COME TO AN
END EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S.
SATURDAY NIGHT...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE REGION AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STRETCHES
FROM NORTH DAKOTA TO HUDSON BAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER
IN PRECIP CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A CONTINUED INCREASE OF SFC
MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT...FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
INTERIOR CENTRAL AND EAST. HOWEVER...DAYTIME MIXING ON SATURDAY MAY
LOWER DEWPOINTS FARTHER THAN MODELS ARE INDICATING. THIS LIKELY WILL
NOT BE REALIZED UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG.
SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL INCH CLOSER TO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD HOLD OFF REACHING THE KEWEENAW UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING. SUNDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY IN THIS WARM STRETCH. WITH 850
HPA TEMPS STILL 12 TO 14C ACROSS THE CWA...HIGHS WILL BE WELL INTO
THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE VALUES ARE 15-20F ABOVE AVERAGES
IN THE LOW 60S THIS TIME OF YEAR. SEVERAL MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
AFTERNOON DIURNAL SHOWERS ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE NORTH-CENTRAL. AM
STILL HAVING A HARD TIME BUYING INTO THIS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE BY THE MODELS AND DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS
MARGINAL. DAYTIME MIXING ALONG WITH QUICKLY DIMINISHING
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION THIS TIME OF YEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SFC
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS
THE KEWEENAW EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT. A DECENT AMOUNT OF LINEAR FORCING WILL BE
AVAILABLE THROUGH LOW-LEVEL FGEN...MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONV...AND THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET. THIS SUGGESTS CONTINUING WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. TIMING OF THE PRECIP REMAINS A
SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGE DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCE AND INCONSISTENCY. THE
12Z NAM SOLUTION HAS COME IN MUCH DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND
OTHER MODELS. THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH BY THE NAM DELAYS
PRECIP UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THAT SAID MONDAYS FORECAST
BECOMES QUITE TRICKY AS THE TEMP AND PRECIP FORECAST HINGES ON HOW
FAR SOUTH THE FRONT MAKES IT SUNDAY NIGHT. A FASTER SOLUTION /ECMWF/
WOULD RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER DAY WITH SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. A
SLOWER SOLUTION /NAM/ WOULD ALLOW DIABATIC HEATING ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL TO STALL THE FRONT EVEN MORE...BRINGING MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS AND SHOWERS TO JUST THE NORTHERN CWA. HAVE OPTED TO TREND
TOWARD THE SLOWER IDEA AS EVEN THE 12Z GFS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF
RAIN...BUT LOW ON THE TIMING.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN BUILDING
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC FRONT CONTINUES
SSE OUT OF THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER WELL INTO
TUESDAY WITH WEAK NE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AT
LEAST SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS/DRIZZLE CENTRAL AND EAST ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THEN...AN INVERSION AROUND 3KFT
COMBINED WITH THE WEAKENING IMPACT OF THE SUN FOR MIXING...MAY KEEP
THE AREA SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. HAVE
THUS CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING HIGH TEMPS FOR TUESDAY...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S CWA-WIDE. ALSO...WITH LOW-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND INITIATING
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...IT MAY EVEN BE DIFFICULT TO
COMPLETELY RID THE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT DIFFERS SOMEWHAT WITH THE
OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW. ATTM...A
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD OVER MANITOBA. WILL MAINTAIN CONSENSUS POPS...WITH AN
EMPHASIS FOR BETTER CHANCES ON THURSDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A JET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014
PLENTY OF DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HI PRES CENTERED NEAR LK HURON
WILL BRING PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 SITES THIS FCST
PERIOD. FOG...WITH POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS...IS POSSIBLE AT SAW TOWARD
SUNRISE. A BIT STRONGER SSW FLOW WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AT
CMX AND IWD. GUSTY SSW WINDS WILL DVLP AT IWD AND PERHAPS SAW IN THE
AFTN WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014
A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE STRETCHING A RIDGE NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
(BELOW 20KTS) INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT
WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL THEN PLACE A RIDGE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LEADING TO DIMINISHING
WINDS.
WITH MORE MOIST AIR BEGINNING TO WORK NORTH OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
547 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014
UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR DES MOINES THIS MORNING WILL BE MAIN
HEADACHE IN THE SHORT TERM. THIS LOW IS STILL WELL DETACHED FROM
THE MAIN FLOW...WHICH IS STILL WELL NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER IN CANADA EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WAVE WILL BE TAKING THE
SCENIC ROUTE ACROSS THE PLAINS...COMING UP INTO SRN MN THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE HEADING BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. PERSISTENT MOIST SRLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR PLENTY OF ACCAS
TO DEVELOP FROM IOWA UP INTO MN...WITH A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT UNDER THE CENTER OF THE LOW SOUTH OF
I-80 IN CENTRAL IA. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
HAS SHOWED LIGHT ISOLATED RETURNS PULSING UP AND DOWN FROM NRN IA
INTO SRN MN. WE EXPECT THIS TREND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH. PRECIP CHANCES
BY THE AFTERNOON WILL BE AIDED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF 500-1500 J/KG
OF MLCAPE THAT THE NAM SHOWS DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN UP
INTO THE ST. CROIX VALLEY. THE CAMS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE HRRR...BUT THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM/SREF ALL SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF DEVELOPING UNDER THE
UPPER LOW WITHIN THE INSTABILITY PLUME...SO MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WE HAD GOING. THE VAST MAJORITY OF PEOPLE WILL GO
THROUGH THE DAY DRY...BUT FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH SUPPORT /ESPECIALLY
WITH WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN IOWA OVERNIGHT/ TO CONTINUE THE ISOLATED
SHOWER MENTION. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO THESE POPS WAS TO PULL THEM OUT
OF THE NRN CWA...AS THESE SHOWERS LOOK TO REMAIN CLOSE TO THE UPPER
LOW.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS HAS HAPPENED OVERNIGHT...SO EXPECT
VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF TEMPS/DEWPS/WINDS TO WHAT WAS
SEEN FRIDAY. AGAIN...BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW MOST LOCATIONS MIXING UP TO
BETWEEN 850-825 MB. MIXING TO 825MB WORKED WELL FOR HIGHS
YESTERDAY...SO THE MAGIC BLEND USED FOR HIGHS TODAY WAS TO USE 2
PARTS MIX DOWN TEMPS TO 825MB...WITH 1 PART HIGHS FROM YESTERDAY.
THIS YIELDED HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYONE...ENJOY!
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...WITH ONLY CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO BE A CONTINUATION OF SCT CLOUDS IN THE 5K TO 7K FT
RANGE. WE WILL SEE A COLD FRONT ENTER NW MN TONIGHT...BUT ALL PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS LOOKING TO BE POST FRONTAL. WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY NIGHT THOUGH...AS WINDS LOOK TO BE WEAKER
WITH A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER AS WELL...BUT LOWS WILL STILL BE A
GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014
THE LONG TERM REMAINS AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES ON THE 27.00Z GFS/ECMWF RUNS ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BETWEEN THE TWO...THE GFS HAS SHOWN
THE BEST CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST FOUR NIGHTS WITH THE PROJECTED
UPPER AIR PATTERN FOR THE WEEK AHEAD.
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MN SUNDAY MORNING
WITH THIS FEATURE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. A DRY
FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
OUTSIDE OF OUR NW CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH. SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. AS IN THE SHORT TERM...MIX-DOWN FROM 825MB
WAS THE FOUNDATION FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY. THE FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS BEST
WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH JUST SMALL POPS INDICATED ACROSS
CENTRAL MN AND ADJOINING PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WI. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
HIGHS FROM 60 TO 70 FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S FOR SOUTHERN MN.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON TUESDAY AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM A QUARTER TO HALF INCH POSSIBLE.
ONE BIG CHANCE WITH THE 27.00Z RUNS WAS WITH THE ECMWF BACKING
DOWN FROM PHASING ENERGY STREAMS TO OUR WEST FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS IS NOW PROJECTED TO BE OVER AND TO THE EAST OF US
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN
AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH THE SOUTH METRO
AND ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BLENDED
POPS WERE RAISED TO ACHIEVE THE LIKELY STATUS.
YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON FRIDAY.
SHOWER CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING
THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60. IF THE TIMING HOLDS...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE FA ON SATURDAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 538 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014
SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS IOWA AND WILL MOVE INTO MN
THIS MORNING. HRRR SHOWS ISO SHOWERS WORKING UP INTO THE TWIN
CITIES...BUT STILL APPEARS COVERAGE WILL BE PRETTY SPARSE AT
BEST...SO HAVE MAINTAINED DRY TAFS. SIMILAR DIURNAL INCREASE IS
EXPECTED WITH WINDS TODAY GIVEN SIMILAR PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
FRIDAY...BUT TONIGHT WE WILL LOSE THAT GRADIENT...WHICH MEANS WE
WILL HAVE TO START THINKING ABOUT FOG AGAIN. WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
TO GET INTO THE 80S...WILL TAKE QUITE A BIT OF WORK THROUGH
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO GET FOG FORMATION...BUT WI TERMINALS MAY
HAVE ISSUES...AS THEY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY AND
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SFC RIDGE...WHICH WILL BE PROTRUDING WEST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. BESIDE THE WARM STARTING POINT
TONIGHT...THESE CLOUDS BETWEEN 5K AND 7K FT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
AROUND TONIGHT...ADDING ANOTHER LAYER OF UNCERTAINTY ON FOG
POTENTIAL. FOR NOW...HAVE SOME MVFR VIS RESTRICTION AT EAU/RNH.
KMSP...CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE ARE BOTH STILL PLENTY LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE TAF DRY. MAY ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME VSBY
RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN HOW WARM WE ARE EXPECTED
TO GET TODAY...WILL BE TOUGH TO GET VIS RESTRICTIONS GOING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WINDS S 10KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS NE 5 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHANCE MVFR/SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS SE 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
902 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014
.UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALONG THE TX/LA COAST
GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE E/NE. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE HWY
84 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ADVECTION HAS
REMAINED IN THIS AREA. REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE E/NE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...KEEPING THE SHOWERS FROM MAKING MUCH MOVEMENT TO THE N TODAY.
THUS...LOWERED POPS IN THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND N BUT LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THIS AREA UNTIL 03Z DUE TO SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE/RAIN LINGERING
IN AREAS. POPS LOOKED GOOD IN THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR BUT SLOWLY TAPERED
IT OFF AFTER 03Z AND REMOVED ALL WORDING OF POPS IN THE S AFTER 09Z
AS THE HRRR INDICATES ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE DISSIPATED BY THEN. LOWS
LOOK GOOD AS SOME OF THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT BUT SOME LOW
CLOUDS COULD MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. S/WV WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO THE E/NE
TONIGHT...CLEARING SOME OF THE HIGHER CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA. ONLY
ADJUSTED LOWS IN THE S/SE SLIGHTLY UPWARD DUE TO SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT SOME PATCHY FOG IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAINFALL BUT CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL AND AREAL
COVERAGE ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE GRIDS. OVERALL...ADJUSTED
HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY GRIDS TO CURRENT TRENDS. REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/
&&
.AVIATION...A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WAS BEING OBSERVED
ALONG THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR AND RESULTING IN MVFR CONDS AT HBG. NO
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER
06Z. LOWEST FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT HBG TONIGHT
LOWERING TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AFTER 08Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS
WERE BEING OBSERVED AT 01Z AND WL CONT THROUGH 10Z. AFTER 10Z MON
MVFR CONDS WL BE PSBL ESPECIALLY CNTRL AND EAST. CONDITIONS WL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AREAWIDE MON MORNING. ISOLD TSTMS WL BE PSBL
IN THE SOUTH MON AFTN. /22/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RAIN CHANCES FOR ALL BUT NORTHWEST ZONES. RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING
MOVES INTO THE REGION. UPPER RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY...WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE SOME DECENT MOISTURE WILL
EXIST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90. /27/
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION
AND MODELS INDICATE PW VALUES AREAWIDE TO BE AROUND 1.7 INCHES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN CONTINUES TO COME AROUND FRIDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. AS MOISTURE INCREASES
OVER THE REGION...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE DAYS AHEAD...PARTICULARLY THURSDAY...BUT THE BEST
CHANCE WILL COME ON FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FROPA BUT THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH
PASSAGE AS IT DOES NOT DIG IT NEARLY AS SOUTH AS THE GFS OR CUTS OFF
A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. DESPITE THESE TIMING
DIFFERENCES...THERE IS AGREEMENT OF RAIN AND STORMS ON FRIDAY AND
HAVE INCREASED POPS IN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ACCORDINGLY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...MUCH DRIER AIR AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. PW
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PLENTY OF SUN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE FOR SOME
NICE DAYS FOR OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES AND FEEL A BIT MORE LIKE FALL.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S...AND PERHAPS LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE 50S AND SOME OUTLYING AREAS COULD SEE UPPER 40S.
DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THE
BETTER PART OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK. /28/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 68 87 67 89 / 15 18 9 12
MERIDIAN 68 87 65 88 / 19 22 9 7
VICKSBURG 67 87 65 88 / 15 16 8 13
HATTIESBURG 71 88 70 90 / 53 24 14 21
NATCHEZ 69 85 68 89 / 33 23 13 23
GREENVILLE 65 87 64 89 / 13 8 3 5
GREENWOOD 66 88 64 89 / 13 9 4 3
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
DC/22/27/28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
310 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014
AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST
COAST WITH A CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. MOISTURE
STREAMED NORTHWARD ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE TROUGH WHERE LOTS
OF CLOUD COVER AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED FROM ARIZONA INTO
MONTANA. STRONG RIDGING WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
COUNTRY WHILE A CUTOFF UPPER LOW SPUN OVER WESTERN IOWA.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS HAVE SOARED TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS AS WARM AIR STREAMS NORTH UNDER THE RIDGE. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WERE COMMON FOR MUCH OF
THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH LOCAL AREAS RANGING
FROM 80 TO 85 DEGREES.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT WAS OBSERVED FROM THE VICINITY OF THE IOWA
UPPER LOW DOWN INTO TEXAS. THIS LED TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES...AND
THEREFORE HAVE OBSERVED DECENT CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS CA/NV THIS AFTN WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY TUESDAY. A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT
WILL SWEEP THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS WRN NEB WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS EAST. COOLER WEATHER
PREVAILS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014
THE UPPER LOW OVER IOWA WILL STAY FAIRLY STATIONARY OR MAY EVEN
MEANDER WESTWARD SLIGHTLY TONIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE
OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW...WHICH WOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...IT IS PROJECTED THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE VEERING TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THIS SAME AREA WHICH COULD BRING ENOUGH LIFT TO
DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
TIME-FRAME LOOKS TO BE 09Z TO 15Z CURRENTLY. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE
DEVELOPMENT IN A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE SOMEWHERE FROM NORTH CENTRAL
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. CONFIDENCE ISN/T REAL HIGH THOUGH IN
PLACEMENT AND AS COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
CURRENTLY.
ALSO LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT OVER THE WESTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM IS HIGHLIGHTING A STRONG INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHILE THE GFS IS FURTHER
EAST. THAT BEING SAID...THE RAP KEEPS MINIMAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE LOCAL AREA...AS IT KEEPS THE POTENTIAL BETTER OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. THESE DIFFERENCES MAINLY RELY ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW. WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE...HAVE NOT ADDED FOG INTO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL PASS ON POTENTIAL TO ONCOMING
SHIFT.
LOOKING THEN INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE THOUGHT THAT ANY FOG AND/OR
CLOUD COVER THAT MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...AND WITH
DEEP MIXING EXPECTED...SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SEE HIGHS IN THE 80S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ECM AND NAM ARE THE SLOWEST SOLNS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE PACIFIC FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THUS
RAIN CHANCES ARE DELAYED UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE
THE FASTER AND STRONGER GFS/GEM SOLNS ARE A BETTER FCST BUT GIVEN
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER OVERALL...THE NAM/ECM APPEARS TO
BE THE BEST FIT.
A SOLID PV ANOMALY WILL BE APPROACHING THE FCST AREA MONDAY AFTN AND
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS
INTO THE EVENING. COLD AIR ALOFT AND PWS OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 61. THE NAM/ECM SOLN PRODUCES 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE
WEST DOWN TO 1/4 INCH IN THE EAST. POPS ARE LIMITED TO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR THIS FORECAST AS MODEL TIMING IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
THE FORECAST.
SOUTHEAST WINDS MONDAY INCREASE TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THE
GFS/GEM MODELS SUGGEST 30 MPH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH. THE MAX
TEMPERATURE FORECAST COOLS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. AN
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER LOW.
SPC SUGGESTED AMPLE SHEAR WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTN AS SOUTHERLY
H500MB WINDS INCREASE TO 60 KT. THIS IS TRUE BUT COUPLED WITH THE
STRONG LOWER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS...20 TO 30 KT...THE EFFECTIVE
SHEAR APPEARS WEAK NEAR 20 TO 30 KT AND THE NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
NARROW CAPE. THE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PARAMETER IN ALL SOLNS SEEMS TO
SUPPORT THE 5 PERCENT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MONDAY.
THE PACIFIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA TUESDAY. THE H500MB
COLD POOL CENTERED OVER SD SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION
ACROSS NRN NEB WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE 500M AGL
WINDS IN THE GFS...ECM AND GEM INCREASE TO OVER 30 KT ACROSS NRN NEB
DURING THE AFTN WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A WIND ADVISORY. THE 12Z ECM HAS
TRENDED TOWARD THE DEEPER GFS/GEM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOLN. THE
STRONG WINDS DEVELOP IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PV ANOMALY AND H700MB
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 KT SHOWN IN THESE MODELS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...STRONG COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH SUGGEST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE SECOND COLD FRONT SENDS H850MB TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 0C
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS FRIDAY RISE INTO JUST THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT FROST SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS HIGH MOVES OFF
VERY QUICKLY AND WARM AIR RETURNS TO THE FCST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE HIGHS RISE INTO THE 60S AND 70S EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...THEN WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE ISN/T REAL HIGH
WITH THE FOG DEVELOPING AND WITH MODELS SHOWING THE AXIS OF
MOISTURE WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAT ANY VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION WILL BE REALIZED AT EITHER KLBF OR KVTN. FOR THIS
FORECAST CYCLE ADDED IN A 4SM IN LIGHT FOG FOR KLBF...WHILE
KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS AT KVTN DUE TO UNCERTAINTY TO HOW FAR NORTH
THE MOISTURE WILL GET. WINDS TODAY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO
UNDER 10KTS THEN ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
929 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT DOWNWARD WITH CURRENT
ACTIVITY LIMITED TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AND MOVING
SMARTLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. LATEST HRRR INDICATING NOT MUCH
CONVECTION IF ANY WILL LINGER AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING. DID LEAVE THE MENTION OF FOG OVERNIGHT AS SOME EAST
SLOPES SITES ALREADY REPORTING LOW CLOUDS. UPDATED ZFP ALREADY
SENT OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...546 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN
NM BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND/OR MT
OBSCURATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...A
RETURN OF IFR/MVFR CIGS IS LIKELY FOR AREAS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN LATE TONIGHT...INCLUDING AT KLVS...KCQC AND
KSRR. INTERESTINGLY...GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
LOW CIGS AT KROW...BUT GIVEN PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...AND MOIST
CONDITIONS CONTINUING...THINK THERE IS STILL A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE
OF MVFR/IFR CIGS THERE. NEXT LOBE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING
OVER NM ON MONDAY. SHRA/TSRA WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NM...AS EARLY AS 18Z. STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OR NE AT
20 TO 35KT. SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN WIND GUSTS AOA 50KT AND LARGE
HAIL IN EASTERN NM DURING THE AFTN/EVE.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY TURN SEVERE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND POSSIBLY ALSO IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN
THREAT...WITH A CONCERN FOR LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...TOO. A COLD FRONT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A
COOLER DAY MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO REBOUND
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF NM WILL STEER
THE POLAR JET STREAM OVERHEAD THROUGH MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET CORE WILL CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TO EAST
CENTRAL AREAS INCREASING DYNAMIC FORCING AND THE SEVERE THREAT.
WITH 500 MB WINDS NEAR AND A LITTLE ABOVE 50 KT...EVEN AVERAGE
LOOKING STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE CRITERIA
WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND E OF THE
CENTRAL VALLEY.
FARMINGTON ALREADY RECEIVED 1.22 INCHES OF RAIN FROM THIS
SYSTEM...THE SAME AMOUNT OF RAIN THEY RECEIVED IN JUNE...JULY AND
AUGUST COMBINED. WPC QPF PROGS DEPICT ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF
INCH RAIN AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF I-40
AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE THE STORM EXITS THE
REGION. SPOTTIER AND GENERALLY LIGHTER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE...WITH LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION NEAR THE AZ
BORDER. DUE TO THE DRENCHING ALREADY RECEIVED AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
CLEARING SKIES LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NW AND W CENTRAL
PLATEAUS...ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR THAT AREA INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD SEE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND EVEN THE FAR SE AND E CENTRAL PLAINS
DUE TO A MOIST RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE SE OVERNIGHT.
MODELS ARE STILL AT ODDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH
WILL DIP AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FROM THE WNW WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS SUGGEST A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. THE TROUGH
WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT BARRELING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA CAUSING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER
A BRIEF RISE ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.
44
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE SIGNIFICANT DRYING AFTER MONDAY...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
NOT SEE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN BOTH HUMIDITY AND
WIND LEVELS THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND PERHAPS INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
RELATIVELY MOIST/WET PERIOD LINGERS THROUGH MON...ENDING BY OR
DURING THE AFTN FAR WEST CENTRAL AND NW NM...AFTER PASSAGE OF SFC
FRONT AND MID TO UPPER LVL TROUGH THERE BUT NOT TILL THE EVE EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS TONIGHT TO BE
NW AND N CENTRAL NM...THOUGH THEY WILL BE SPOTTY. BEST CHANCES MON
ACROSS NE AND N CENTRAL NM...EXTENDING TO SOME DEGREE INTO CENTRAL
AND E CENTRAL NM. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL PICK-UP AS WELL...LAL
REACHING A 5 BY MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS AND AT LEAST
4 IN NE NM. HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL CONTINUE TO BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT
MOST AREAS THROUGH MON NIGHT...THOUGH PERHAPS LOWERING SOME W
CENTRAL AND NW NM MON NIGHT. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY WITH GOOD MIXING WILL BRING MOSTLY VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
VENT RATES.
THE UPPER LOW TO OPEN UP AND EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH DRIER AIR FOLLOWING BEHIND
IT ON TUESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL TREND DOWN QUICKLY TUE...
BEFORE STABILIZING ON WEDNESDAY. VENT RATES ARE FORECAST TO TAKE A
MODEST TO MODERATE DIP ON TUESDAY...BUT BOUNCE BACK QUICKLY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN ADVANCE OF AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH...
FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE WEDNESDAY
AND PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES
TO MODERATE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND GENERALLY BOUNCE
BACK ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS WITH AN
UPPER HIGH BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
43
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1025 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK
ACROSS THE GULF COAST MONDAY...THEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...
MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH/WEST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A
APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE GULF COAST...WITH THIS LOW (AND BEST PRECIP
CHANCES) PROGGED TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING...AN AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN HAS DEVELOPED AND PERSISTED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR
FROM ATLANTA TO CHARLOTTE...AND THE LATEST HRRR HAS A FAIRLY GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS. THIS AREA OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SPREAD
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY
REMAIN PRECIP FREE THROUGH DAYBREAK. REGARDLESS... ANY PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AS THE AREA IS REMOVED FROM THE BEST FORCING.
WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS...EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS OVER THE SOUTH/WEST
WILL RESULT IN MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS (LOW TO MID 60S) COMPARED TO
THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER (AT LEAST EARLY ON
IN THE NIGHT) MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60
DEGREES BEFORE THE THICKENING CLOUD COVER MOVES EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...
MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF COAST/SE U.S.
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST MONDAY
AND DRIFT OFF THE GA COAST MONDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE FAR SOUTHERN
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...MOST OF THE LIFT TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE PRECIP OVER
CENTRAL NC WILL BE MAINLY GENERATED FROM LIFTING ALOFT...YIELDING TO
LIGHTER PRECIP AMOUNTS. THUS WHAT WAS LOOKING TO BE A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC A FEW DAYS AGO IS NOW LOOKING
MUCH WEAKER. EXPECT PATCHES OF PRECIP TO BREAK OUT IN THE
MORNING...BECOMING LIKELY GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64 BY MIDDAY.
HAVE DECREASED EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS BASED ON LATEST GFS/HPC
GUIDANCE. THIS YIELDS STORM TOTALS RANGING FROM LESS THAN A QUARTER
OF AN INCH NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64...AND A LITTLE MORE THAN A HALF INCH
ACROSS THE SOUTH.
SINCE PRECIP EXPECT TO BE LIGHT/SPOTTY...IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY
THAT A HYBRID/IN-SITU CAD WILL SET-UP. THUS...TEMPS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED UPWARD A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT BUT STILL
ONE TO TWO CATEGORIES BELOW MOS. IF PRECIP FAILS TO
MATERIALIZE...MAX TEMPS IN THE TRIAD AND TRIANGLE AREAS MAY END UP
BEING 3-4 DEGREES WARMER. CURRENTLY...WILL HAVE MAX TEMPS WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO OF 70 EXCEPT OVER TEH FAR NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
LOW-MID 70S MAY OCCUR.
MONDAY NIGHT...PRECIP STILL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE
WEST-NW AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSES AND EXITS THE REGION.
RAINFALL COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE SE COUNTIES WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM SUNDAY...
FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE GUIDANCE TREND HAS
CONTINUED AND APPEARED TO ACCELERATE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL
RUNS OR SO...ALTHOUGH AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE TUESDAY
MORNING...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH AND THEN
HEADS FROM NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST OUT TO SEA. THIS OCCURS AS
A MID-LEVEL LOW MOVES FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC...AND AN EXTENSION OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENS
SLIGHTLY AND MOVES OFFSHORE. THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE
GFS...AND WITH BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ABOUT KIXA TO KFAY AND
EAST...WOULD HANG ON TO LOWER CLOUDS THERE TUESDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...
THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE BASICALLY SUBSIDENT FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
RELATIVELY LOW K INDICES AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT...AND VIRTUALLY NO
QPF. OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN POTENTIAL VORTICITY ON THE 1.5PVU SURFACE...BUT
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ONLY SUGGEST A PERIOD OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS WITH
THESE FEATURES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY
TUESDAY MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 IN DEFERENCE TO THE
NAM...WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IF THE GFS
IS CORRECT...THE SKY FORECAST TUESDAY WILL BE MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN
THIS FORECAST WILL SHOW ESPECIALLY EAST OF U.S. 1...WITH AN AVERAGE
PARTLY SUNNY DAY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
THE MAV AND MET MOS GUIDANCE ARE VERY CLOSE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY AND
ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTATIONS FROM 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES. THESE VALUES WOULD REPRESENT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY TREND HIGHER...NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS
THE MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS...ESSENTIALLY A BLEND OF ALL OF THE GUIDANCE
PACKAGES AVAILABLE BOTH COOL AND WARM FOR HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS 56 TO 61 TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN HIGHS 75 TO 80
WEDNESDAY...COOLEST NORTHEAST WHERE THE CONSENSUS OF GFS AND NAM
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS SUGGESTS ANY HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ARRIVE
DURING THE MORNING AND EXTEND INTO THE AFTERNOON KEEPING SOLAR
INSOLATION LOWER COMPARED TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT BRIEFLY FOR THURSDAY. DURING THIS TIME...BOTH THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF PROVIDE FOR WEAK QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND WHILE
COARSE SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH MODELS SUGGEST LIMITED INSTABILITY AND
SOME AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIFT SHOULD BE WEAK UNDER BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE. THE ECMWF DOES FORECAST A WEAK 700MB WAVE MOVING
THROUGH...SO IF ALL PARAMETERS COME TOGETHER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO COULD OCCUR...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...THE ECMWF
IS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH LOW PRESSURE TO FOLLOW THE RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...WHICH RESULTS IN THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING FASTER
TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY VERY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED
TO THE GFS. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS SIMILAR...THOUGH...PUSHING THE
FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. WHILE
COARSE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT VERY UNSTABLE...THE STRENGTH OF THE
MID-LEVEL WAVE FORECAST BY BOTH MODELS...IN COMBINATION WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND THE JET AXIS ALOFT MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. A SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A SOLID CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY A SHOWER LINGERING INTO EARLY SATURDAY EAST
DEPENDING ON THE FRONTAL TIMING. AN ALTERNATIVE COULD BE FASTER
TIMING OF BOTH THE BEGINNING AND END OF PRECIPITATION IF THE GFS
TRENDS CONTINUE. DRY AND COOL SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO APPROACH...
OR EVEN FALL BELOW...50 DEGREES ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH OF THE
TRIANGLE WHERE 1000-850MB THICKNESSES...GRANTED OUT TO THE END OF
THE SIXTH DAY...WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST A FEW 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM SUNDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME
MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. A SHROUD OF HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING
SHOULD HELP TO DETER THE FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. WILL NOT COVER IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LARGELY CALM OVERNIGHT. AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...CHANCES FOR RAIN
BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME SPRINKLES MAY EVOLVE AFTER
6Z OR SO BUT ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK. THE EXPECTATION FOR MONDAY IS THAT CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN
VERY HIGH AND RAIN WILL BE LIGHT TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INTENSITY AT
BEST. IT WILL TAKE A LONG TIME FOR THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
TO MOISTEN UP AND CLOUD DECKS COULD VERY WELL STAY VFR THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
LONG TERM: THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL EVENTUALLY MOISTEN
UP LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND COULD BRING A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BUT SHOULD RETURN TO VFR LATE TUESDAY. A
STRONG SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KRD/MWS
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
421 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH TODAY. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES OCEANIC STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING INLAND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS AND ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION AND
REMNANT CLOUDS OVER THE CRYSTAL COAST REGION. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PROGRESS OF NORTHERN CLOUD DECK SPREADING INLAND AS IF THEY BECOME
WIDESPREAD/PERSISTENT THEY WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON FOG POTENTIAL
WEST OF HIGHWAY 17 EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED.
EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 WINDS LIKELY TO KEEP MIXING OVERNIGHT
INHIBITING RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT POSSIBLY CONTRIBUTING
TO LOW STRATUS CLOUD FORMATION AROUND SUNRISE.
ANY CLOUDS/FOG THAT FORM WILL MIX OUT BY MID MORNING. SHALLOW
MOISTURE PROFILES AND AND LACK OF FORCING WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE AREA WILL PRECLUDE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY
WITH MORE SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 INLAND AND THE MIDDLE 70S
BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. LOOKS LIKE LIGHT WINDS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD WITH A
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST AND WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THERE
WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP LATE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S BEACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM SAT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH SUNDAY AND
WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA EXPECT PRED DRY WEATHER. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND NE FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOW 80S. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN SUN NIGHT AND MON...AS WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVES THROUGH THE
SE STATES. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN STRENGTH AND
RELATED SFC LOW TRACK. ECMWF TRACK OF LOW ALONG COAST PREFERRED
WITH LOW DEEPENING OFF MID ATLC COAST TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT AS UPR
LOW MOVES FROM GREAT LAKES ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING POPS OVER ERN NC LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS AREA LATE MON NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...AND SC TSTMS ALONG COAST WITH PSBL WARM SECTOR CONDITIONS.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PWATS OVER 2 INCHES.
PRECIP THREAT WILL DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AND WED AS LOW MOVES TO NE BUT
KEPT LINGERING SLGT CHC NE SECTIONS WED NIGHT.
SFC RIDGING AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON SRN PERIPHERY OF UPR LOW WILL
PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS THU-FRI. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL MON-FRI...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 60S/AROUND 70
DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO IFR
POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS DRY INTRUSION THIS EVENING HAS LED TO MUCH
SHALLOWER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES THAN PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS.
THINK BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KPGV AND
KISO WHERE WINDS HAVE ALREADY DECOUPLED AND WHERE THE HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG. AT
KEWN AND KOAJ THE ATMOSPHERE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN MIXED INHIBITING
FOG FORMATION BUT POSSIBLY LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR
CEILINGS IN STRATUS AFTER 10Z AS DEPICTED IN THE BUFKIT PROFILES
AND THE HRRR AND NARRE GUIDANCE. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY 15Z SATURDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LATE SATURDAY CONDITIONS WILL FAVORABLE
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT ALL THE TAF
SITES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...LINGERING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE INTO MID
MORNING SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR. PERIODS OF SUB-VFR EXPECTED
LATE MON THROUGH TUE AS WEAK SFC LOW MOVES ALONG THE COAST WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN. CONDITIONS IMPROVING ON WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR
ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAINED CENTERED
NORTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT PRODUCING NE FLOW 15-20 KT
ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT TONIGHT.
WAVEWATCH AND SWAN CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING
SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT TODAY TO SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH SUN
RESULTING IN CONTINUED NE FLOW 10-15KT AND SEAS 3-5FT. HIGH WILL
WEAKEN SUN NIGHT AND MON...AS WEAK SFC LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
SW...AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG COAST MON NIGHT AND
TUE...DEEPENING OFF MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUE NIGHT AND WED. THIS
WILL RESULT IN STRONGEST WINDS FROM N-NW OVER NRN AND CENTRAL
WATERS TUE NIGHT AND WED....MAINLY 15-20 KTS. PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6FT
IN STRONGER N/NW WINDS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ156-
158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...JBM/CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
323 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH TODAY. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES OCEANIC STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING INLAND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS AND ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION AND
REMNANT CLOUDS OVER THE CRYSTAL COAST REGION. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PROGRESS OF NORTHERN CLOUD DECK SPREADING INLAND AS IF THEY BECOME
WIDESPREAD/PERSISTENT THEY WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON FOG POTENTIAL
WEST OF HIGHWAY 17 EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED.
EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 WINDS LIKELY TO KEEP MIXING OVERNIGHT
INHIBITING RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT POSSIBLY CONTRIBUTING
TO LOW STRATUS CLOUD FORMATION AROUND SUNRISE.
ANY CLOUDS/FOG THAT FORM WILL MIX OUT BY MID MORNING. SHALLOW
MOISTURE PROFILES AND AND LACK OF FORCING WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE AREA WILL PRECLUDE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY
WITH MORE SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 INLAND AND THE MIDDLE 70S
BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. LOOKS LIKE LIGHT WINDS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD WITH A
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST AND WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THERE
WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP LATE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S BEACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH SUNDAY AND
WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA EXPECT PRED DRY WEATHER. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND NE FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOW 80S. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN SUN NIGHT AND MON...AS WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVES THROUGH THE
SE STATES. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN STRENGTH AND
RELATED SFC LOW TRACK. ECMWF TRACK OF LOW ALONG COAST PREFERRED
WITH LOW DEEPENING OFF MID ATLC COAST TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT AS UPR
LOW MOVES FROM GREAT LAKES ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING POPS OVER ERN NC LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS AREA LATE MON NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...AND SC TSTMS ALONG COAST WITH PSBL WARM SECTOR
CONDITIONS. PRECIP THREAT WILL DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AND WED AS LOW
MOVES TO NE BUT KEPT LINGERING SLGT CHC NE SECTIONS WED NIGHT.
SFC RIDGING AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON SRN PERIPHERY OF UPR LOW WILL
PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS THU-FRI. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL MON-FRI...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 60S/AROUND 70
DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO IFR
POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS DRY INTRUSION THIS EVENING HAS LED TO MUCH
SHALLOWER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES THAN PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS.
THINK BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KPGV AND
KISO WHERE WINDS HAVE ALREADY DECOUPLED AND WHERE THE HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG. AT
KEWN AND KOAJ THE ATMOSPHERE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN MIXED INHIBITING
FOG FORMATION BUT POSSIBLY LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR
CEILINGS IN STRATUS AFTER 10Z AS DEPICTED IN THE BUFKIT PROFILES
AND THE HRRR AND NARRE GUIDANCE. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY 15Z SATURDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LATE SATURDAY CONDITIONS WILL FAVORABLE
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT ALL THE TAF
SITES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...LINGERING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE INTO MID
MORNING SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR. PERIODS OF SUB-VFR EXPECTED
LATE MON THROUGH TUE AS WEAK SFC LOW MOVES ALONG THE COAST WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN. CONDITIONS IMPROVING ON WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR
ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAINED CENTERED
NORTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT PRODUCING NE FLOW 15-20 KT
ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT TONIGHT.
WAVEWATCH AND SWAN CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING
SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT TODAY TO SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH SUN
RESULTING IN CONTINUED NE FLOW 10-15KT AND SEAS 3-5FT. HIGH WILL
WEAKEN SUN NIGHT AND MON...AS WEAK SFC LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
SW...AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG COAST MON NIGHT AND
TUE...DEEPENING OFF MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUE NIGHT AND WED. THIS
WILL RESULT IN STRONGEST WINDS FROM N-NW OVER NRN AND CENTRAL
WATERS TUE NIGHT AND WED....MAINLY 15-20 KTS. PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6FT
IN STRONGER N/NW WINDS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ156-
158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...JBM/CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1245 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO RIDGE
INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTH WITH THE DRY INTRUSION FINALLY
WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING HELPING TO ERODE
MOST OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK WHICH HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE REGION FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES OCEANIC
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS
AND ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION AND REMNANT CLOUDS OVER THE CRYSTAL
COAST REGION. WILL HAVE TO WATCH PROGRESS OF NORTHERN CLOUD DECK
SPREADING INLAND AS IF THEY BECOME WIDESPREAD/PERSISTENT THEY WILL
HAVE AN EFFECT ON FOG POTENTIAL WEST OF HIGHWAY 17 WHERE WIND
SHOULD DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 WINDS LIKELY TO KEEP
MIXING OVERNIGHT INHIBITING RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT
POSSIBLY CONTRIBUTING TO LOW STRATUS CLOUD FORMATION AROUND
SUNRISE. SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILES AND AND LACK OF FORCING WITH
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL PRECLUDE PRECIPITATION AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
60S (UPPER 60S COAST) WITH SOME UPPER 50S INLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS
THE REGION BRINGING NE FLOW. EXPECT TO SEE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
SUNSHINE THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS WITH SHOWERS REMAINING
OFFSHORE BUT EXPECT SCT CU THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES CHANGE LITTLE BUT MORE SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND USED FOR SAT NIGHT
THROUGH MON PERIOD...THEN LEAN TO 12Z ECMWF/WPC FOR REST OF PERIOD.
SFC AND MID LVL RIDGE WILL PRODUCE DRY WX FOR AREA SAT NIGHT...THEN
MOVE E SUN AND SUN NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG COAST
WITH GRADUALLY VEERING ONSHORE FLOW.
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON MID LVL TROF MOVING IN MONDAY AND MON
NIGHT BUT SOME DIFFERENCE IN STRENGTH AND RELATED SFC LOW TRACK.
ECMWF TRACK OF LOW ALONG COAST PREFERRED WITH LOW DEEPENING OFF MID
ATLC COAST TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT AS UPR LOW MOVES FROM GREAT LAKES
ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING POPS OVER ERN
NC LATE LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS AREA
LATE MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...AND CHC TSTMS ALONG COAST WITH
PSBL WARM SECTOR CONDITIONS.
PCPN THREAT WILL DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AND WED AS LOW MOVES TO NE BUT
KEPT LINGERING SLGT CHC NE SECTIONS WED NIGHT. SFC RIDGING AND ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT ON SRN PERIPHERY OF UPR LOW WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS
THU-FRI.
TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR SAT NIGHT INTO MON...THEN NEAR
NORMAL REST OF PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC TAP EXPECTED BEHIND
DEPARTING SFC LOW MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO IFR
POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS DRY INTRUSION THIS EVENING HAS LED TO MUCH
SHALLOWER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES THAN PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS.
THINK BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KPGV AND
KISO WHERE WINDS HAVE ALREADY DECOUPLED AND WHERE THE HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG. AT
KEWN AND KOAJ THE ATMOSPHERE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN MIXED INHIBITING
FOG FORMATION BUT POSSIBLY LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR
CEILINGS IN STRATUS AFTER 10Z AS DEPICTED IN THE BUFKIT PROFILES
AND THE HRRR AND NARRE GUIDANCE. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY 15Z SATURDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LATE SATURDAY CONDITIONS WILL FAVORABLE
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT ALL THE TAF
SITES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AS HIGH PRES OVER AREA GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE.
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR EXPECTED LATE MON THROUGH TUE WITH SFC LOW
MOVING ALONG COAST. CONDITIONS IMPROVING ON WED WITH HIGH PRES
BUILDING IN.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRES WILL REMAINED CENTERED NORTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PRODUCING NE FLOW 10-20 KT
ACROSS THE WATERS. WAVEWATCH AND SWAN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
4-7 FT SEAS NORTH OF OCRACOKE INLET THROUGH SAT AND 3-6 FT SOUTH
TONIGHT SUBSIDING TO 3-5 FT SAT. ADJUSTED THE SCA TO END AT 7 AM
SAT SOUTH OF OCRACOKE INLET BUT WILL KEEP TO THE NORTH THROUGH
SAT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...MODEL BLEND USED FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MON PERIOD...THEN LEANED TO ECMWF FOR LATE MON-WED. MODERATE NE
WINDS WILL PERSIST SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THEN WEAKEN SUN NIGHT. SFC
LOW WILL APPROACH FROM SW LATE MONDAY...AND MOVE ALONG COAST MON
NIGHT AND TUE...DEEPENING OFF MID ATLC COAST TUE NIGHT AND WED. THIS
WILL RESULT IN STRONGEST WINDS FROM N-NW OVER NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS
TUE NIGHT AND WED....MAINLY 15-20 KTS.
SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT OVER NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS
SUNDAY...AND GENERALLY 2-4 FT ACROSS WATERS SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT.
HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS WITH STRONGER N-NW
WINDS TUE NIGHT AND WED.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ156-
158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...BTC/JME/SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/JME
MARINE...JBM/JME/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS PENDLETON OR
1031 AM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY. NO CHANGES PLANNED IN FORECAST. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW IN NEVADA WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE AREA EAST OF WALLA WALLA...PENDLETON...AND JOHN
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE COOLER IN THESE AREAS UNDER MORE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. REST OF AREA WILL HAVE NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...LIGHT WINDS...AND FREQUENT PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS 08-15KFT AT THE SOUTHEAST TAF SITES
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE WESTERN TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTH 5-15KTS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 15-20KTS.
WEBER
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 132 AM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
OVERALL FLOW WILL BE SPLIT WITH A SUBTLE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
WASHINGTON AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN OREGON. THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW TO MOVE INTO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING
PRECIPITATION INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS OF THE CWA TODAY. AS SUCH WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST
BORDER REGION OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER TO THE
NORTH AND WEST WITH THE PRECIPITATION WHILE THE GFS SHOWS MUCH LESS.
IT WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AND SUNDAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
THEN ON MONDAY THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES WITH SOME INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION THERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENING. 88
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS. A COOL
PRIMARILY DRY NW FLOW WILL WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OFFSHORE. AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. IT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. THE ECMWF DOES SHOW A DISTURBANCE PASSING
TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WITH PRECIPITATION IN WASHINGTON. FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST AREA DRY EXCEPT FOR SLGT CHC POPS WA CASCADE
CREST. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT
END UP ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IT WILL BE QUITE COLD IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WITH WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES. 78
AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE WESTERN SITES AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO OUR SE. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW-N
THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-20 KT AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING. 78
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 71 52 72 52 / 10 10 10 10
ALW 74 55 74 56 / 10 10 10 10
PSC 77 53 77 52 / 0 10 10 10
YKM 74 51 76 49 / 10 0 0 10
HRI 76 50 76 50 / 10 10 10 10
ELN 72 49 73 48 / 10 0 0 10
RDM 66 39 68 39 / 10 10 10 10
LGD 67 45 68 45 / 20 20 20 20
GCD 66 44 68 43 / 20 20 20 20
DLS 75 53 77 54 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
79/89/89
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
831 AM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY. NO CHANGES PLANNED IN FORECAST. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW IN NEVADA WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE AREA EAST OF WALLA WALLA...PENDLETON...AND JOHN
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE COOLER IN THESE AREAS UNDER MORE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. REST OF AREA WILL HAVE NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...LIGHT WINDS...AND FREQUENT PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 132 AM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
OVERALL FLOW WILL BE SPLIT WITH A SUBTLE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
WASHINGTON AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN OREGON. THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW TO MOVE INTO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING
PRECIPITATION INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS OF THE CWA TODAY. AS SUCH WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST
BORDER REGION OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER TO THE
NORTH AND WEST WITH THE PRECIPITATION WHILE THE GFS SHOWS MUCH LESS.
IT WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AND SUNDAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
THEN ON MONDAY THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES WITH SOME INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION THERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENING. 88
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS. A COOL
PRIMARILY DRY NW FLOW WILL WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OFFSHORE. AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. IT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. THE ECMWF DOES SHOW A DISTURBANCE PASSING
TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WITH PRECIPITATION IN WASHINGTON. FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST AREA DRY EXCEPT FOR SLGT CHC POPS WA CASCADE
CREST. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT
END UP ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IT WILL BE QUITE COLD IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WITH WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES. 78
AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE WESTERN SITES AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO OUR SE. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW-N
THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-20 KT AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING. 78
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 71 52 72 52 / 10 10 10 10
ALW 74 55 74 56 / 10 10 10 10
PSC 77 53 77 52 / 0 10 10 10
YKM 74 51 76 49 / 10 0 0 10
HRI 76 50 76 50 / 10 10 10 10
ELN 72 49 73 48 / 10 0 0 10
RDM 66 39 68 39 / 10 10 10 10
LGD 67 45 68 45 / 20 20 20 20
GCD 66 44 68 43 / 20 20 20 20
DLS 75 53 77 54 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
79/89/89
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
132 AM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
OVERALL FLOW WILL BE SPLIT WITH A SUBTLE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
WASHINGTON AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN OREGON. THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW TO MOVE INTO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING
PRECIPITATION INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS OF THE CWA TODAY. AS SUCH WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST
BORDER REGION OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER TO THE
NORTH AND WEST WITH THE PRECIPITATION WHILE THE GFS SHOWS MUCH LESS.
IT WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AND SUNDAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
THEN ON MONDAY THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES WITH SOME INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION THERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENING. 88
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS. A COOL
PRIMARILY DRY NW FLOW WILL WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OFFSHORE. AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. IT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. THE ECMWF DOES SHOW A DISTURBANCE PASSING
TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WITH PRECIPITATION IN WASHINGTON. FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST AREA DRY EXCEPT FOR SLGT CHC POPS WA CASCADE
CREST. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT
END UP ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IT WILL BE QUITE COLD IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WITH WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES. 78
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE WESTERN SITES AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO OUR SE. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW-N
THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-20 KT AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING. 78
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 71 52 72 52 / 10 10 10 10
ALW 74 55 74 56 / 10 10 10 10
PSC 77 53 77 52 / 0 10 10 10
YKM 74 51 76 49 / 10 0 0 10
HRI 76 50 76 50 / 10 10 10 10
ELN 72 49 73 48 / 10 0 0 10
RDM 66 39 68 39 / 10 10 10 10
LGD 67 45 68 45 / 20 20 20 20
GCD 66 44 68 43 / 20 20 20 20
DLS 75 53 77 54 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
88/78/78
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
1012 PM PDT FRI SEP 26 2014
.UPDATE...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CONTINUING TO SPLIT WITH
CUT OFF LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. THERE IS A
BAND OF CIRRUS CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM THE LOW NORTH ACROSS EASTERN
OREGON...WHILE MOST OF THE CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM DAYTIME HEATING HAVE
DISSIPATED WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE REST OF THE REGION.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY ALONG
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BLUE AND WALLOWA MOUNTAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES INTO NEVADA WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. I
ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS. ML
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 230 PM PDT FRI SEP 26 2014/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
HAS MOVED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. A SPLIT FLOW IS
DEVELOPING IN THE TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW FORMING IN THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ANOTHER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. THIS IS LEADING TO A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA.
THE WESTERLY FLOW BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST
TODAY AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING THOUGH THE INTENSITY IS
LESSENING. ELSEWHERE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP AND HAVE CUT
BACK ON THE POPS FOR TONIGHT, LIMITING IT TO A SLIGHT CHANCE AND
REMOVING THEM FROM A FEW PLACES, MAINLY THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS.
THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND PROGRESSING TO THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF OUR AREA SO
HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST OREGON WHILE THE
REST OF THE AREA DRIES OUT. ON SATURDAY THE SOUTHERN LOW WILL COME
ASHORE AND WILL BE CENTERED NEAR RENO IN THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL THEN
MOVE INTO CENTRAL NEVADA ON SUNDAY AND INTO UTAH AND WEAKEN BY
MONDAY. CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING A NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WRAP AROUND FLOW INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THE
FLOW WILL HAVE TURNED BACK TO WESTERLY AND ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST WHILE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHILE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH MID 30S
TO MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED
TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE A RETURN TO DRIER
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE IS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY THAT COULD INCREASE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION ALONG WITH A FEW
SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES. BY FRIDAY A
STRONGER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NEVADA WILL HELP TO BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY TO KALW AND KPDT
TAF SITES ON SATURDAY. A FEW CU COULD ALSO DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER AND
INVOF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15KTS
GUSTING TO 20-25KTS AFTER 19Z AT MOST TAF SITES...BEFORE DECREASING
AGAIN AFTER SUNSET. 77
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 50 73 52 72 / 10 10 10 10
ALW 54 74 55 74 / 10 10 10 10
PSC 48 77 53 76 / 0 0 10 10
YKM 48 73 51 75 / 10 10 0 0
HRI 50 75 50 75 / 0 10 10 10
ELN 48 74 49 76 / 10 10 0 0
RDM 39 66 39 67 / 10 10 10 10
LGD 47 66 45 68 / 10 10 20 20
GCD 43 64 44 68 / 10 10 20 20
DLS 54 76 53 78 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
93/97/97
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
434 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEAKEN
ON SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
THE LOW SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER/MID 70S CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AMONGST DRIER NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. ON THE CONTRARY...WEDGE BOUNDARY DRAPED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
85 IN PROXIMITY TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO YIELD
PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MADE SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE SKY FORECAST
TO ACCOUNT FOR MOST RECENT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. ALSO
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE EXTREME NEAR TERM TO
REFLECT LATEST OBS FROM AROUND THE REGION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 220 PM...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MIX IN FROM THE NE ALIGNED IN A
PERSISTENT SFC WEDGE. THE MAJORITY OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND CLOUD
COVER HAS PUSHED OUT OF THE CWFA WITH LINGER BKN/OVC CONDS ACROSS
THE SW/RN ZONES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES
THROUGH MAX HEATING...REMAINING A CAT OR SO BELOW NORMAL.
A QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS IN STORE WITH A SUBTROPICAL HIGH
REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS. RAP SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A DECOUPLED
ATMOS OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING MINS TO REACH NORMAL LEVELS NORTH AND A
COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS. THERE COULD
BE SOME MTN VALLEY FG DEVELOPING ARND SUNRISE...BUT TDDS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY HIGH FOR MUCH OF A DENSE THREAT.
LOW TO MID LEVEL ATL MOISTURE BEGINS PUSHING IN EARLY SUN MORNING
AND THE SRN ZONES WILL SEE THE BEST CLOUD COVER AFT DAYBREAK. THE
NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...WHICH KEEPS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE ALIGNED ALONG THE WEDGE BNDRY. SRN FA SOUNDINGS
SHOW NEARLY SATURATED COLUMNS BY THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW
BEGINS ADVECTING GOM MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. STILL...THE MAIN FLOW
WILL BE ATL...WHICH WILL INSTIGATE GOOD MECH LIFT ACROSS THE SRN
ESCARPMENT...NE GA AND SW NC MTNS BY THE AFTERNOON. POPS WILL RISE
QUICKLY INTO THE HIGH CHANCE AND LOW/END LIKELY RANGE SUN AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FAR WEST...HOWEVER PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW
THROUGH THE NRT PERIOD AS INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW KEEPING CONVEC
PRECIP WELL SOUTH. POPS WILL REMAIN NIL OUTSIDE THE MTNS AND SW/RN
ZONES. MAX TEMPS WILL FEATURE A SW/NE COOL/WARM GRADIENT DUE TO
CLOUD COVER AND DIFF HEATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...AN H5 SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT FROM THE GULF
COAST TO THE EXTREME SRN APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MERGE WITH A
NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE SWINGING EAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. AT LOWER
LEVELS...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SET UP
OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ACROSS AT LEAST THE SW HALF OF THE
AREA. DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION MON WITH THE
MERGING UPPER WAVES AND PASSING UPPER LEVEL JET DIVERGENCE. AN 850
MB LOW CENTER WILL LIKELY RIDE NE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...SETTING UP ADDITIONAL WEAK FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE
AREA. THESE FEATURES WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE E OR NE TO THE COAST
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...WITH CONTINUED LIGHT PRECIPITATION WRAPPING
BACK OVER THE REGION ON THE W SIDE OF THE LOW.
THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR HEAVY QPF ARE A FAIRLY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER IN THE NC PIEDMONT AT ONSET...AS WELL AS THE STRONG POTENTIAL
FOR GULF COASTAL CONVECTION AND CONVECTION NEAR A WEAK WEDGE
BOUNDARY IMPEDING THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE. SO..THE QUESTION IS NOT
WHETHER IT WILL RAIN...BUT HOW MUCH. THE 12Z GFS IS PRODUCING A
BULLSEYE OF NEARLY 6 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR...BUT
IT FEATURES LITTLE TO NO GULF COASTAL CONVECTION. THIS SOLUTION
SEEMS UNLIKELY...AND THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN HEAVILY ON A
MODEL BLEND WITH A HEAVY NOD TOWARD THE DRIER SREF MEAN AND LATEST
ECM QPF. IN ADDITION...WITH A WEAK SURFACE CAD LAYER PERSISTING OR
REDEVELOPING AS THE RAIN ARRIVES...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LARGELY
SHUNTED SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING EVENT. WITH 850 TO 500
MB LAPSE RATES RATHER WEAK OVER THE SFC HIGH...RAINFALL RATES SHOULD
NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FLASH FLOODING. DURATION RAINFALL
ALONG MAIN STEMS AND THE MOST FLOOD PRONE AREAS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED...BUT ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR MUCH OF A
HYDRO THREAT GIVEN EXPECTED QPF/DURATION. STILL...AN HWO MENTION
SEEMS WARRANTED FOR AT LEAST THE HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY. A SMALLER
THAN MOS DIURNAL RANGE ON TEMPS WILL BE FEATURED WITH CAD CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SAT...A WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS A DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHOULD CROSS THE REGION
THU...WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP BY FRI IN LIGHT OF A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES LATE SAT INTO SUN.
AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE WEDGE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION BY
TUE NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THU...YIELDING CONSIDERABLE LLVL
CLOUDINESS AND COOL NE WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD. NE WINDS SHOULD
VEER TO THE SE BY THU NIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFT
EAST WHILE AN ACTIVE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. BOTH THE NEW 12Z GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL REACH
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY AROUND SAT 00Z AND OFF TO OUR EAST BY
AROUND 12Z SAT. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS MINIMAL GIVEN
THE LATE OF GOOD UPPER FORCING/BOUNCY. IN FACT...MODELS HAVE TRENDED
A BIT DRIER AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AS IT CROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HENCE...HAVE INHERITED LOW END CHANCE POPS DURING THE FROPA.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY SAT AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE AND A COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 3-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW TO SCT CU WILL
PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN ABV 030. LOW TO MID LEVEL ATL
MOISTURE FLUX WILL COMMENCE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL BRING IN
CLOUDS...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A RESTRICTIVE CIG MENTION. THESE CLOUDS
WILL ALSO OFFSET MUCH A VSBY CONCERN ARND DAYBREAK.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD
WITH LINGER LOW VFR CU THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ATL MOISTURE FLUX WILL
BRING IN MVFR CLOUDS FAIRLY LATE...ARND DAYBREAK WHICH SHOULD AFFECT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...WITH CIGS LIFTING TO VFR
PROBABLE NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...HIGH LEVELS MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF UNSETTLE WEATHER MOVING NORTH OUT OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. PERIODS OF CONTINUOUS MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL AFFECT THE AREA MON/TUE PRODUCING LOW CIGS AND VSBY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 94% MED 69%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 88% MED 67% MED 60%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 84% MED 75%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 94% MED 69%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 93% MED 78%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...CDG/SBK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...SBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
259 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEAKEN
ON SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
THE LOW SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MIX IN FROM THE NE ALIGNED IN A
PERSISTENT SFC WEDGE. THE MAJORITY OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND CLOUD
COVER HAS PUSHED OUT OF THE CWFA WITH LINGER BKN/OVC CONDS ACROSS
THE SW/RN ZONES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES
THROUGH MAX HEATING...REMAINING A CAT OR SO BELOW NORMAL.
A QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS IN STORE WITH A SUBTROPICAL HIGH
REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS. RAP SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A DECOUPLED
ATMOS OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING MINS TO REACH NORMAL LEVELS NORTH AND A
COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS. THERE COULD
BE SOME MTN VALLEY FG DEVELOPING ARND SUNRISE...BUT TDDS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY HIGH FOR MUCH OF A DENSE THREAT.
LOW TO MID LEVEL ATL MOISTURE BEGINS PUSHING IN EARLY SUN MORNING
AND THE SRN ZONES WILL SEE THE BEST CLOUD COVER AFT DAYBREAK. THE
NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...WHICH KEEPS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE ALIGNED ALONG THE WEDGE BNDRY. SRN FA SOUNDINGS
SHOW NEARLY SATURATED COLUMNS BY THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW
BEGINS ADVECTING GOM MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. STILL...THE MAIN FLOW
WILL BE ATL...WHICH WILL INSTIGATE GOOD MECH LIFT ACROSS THE SRN
ESCARPMENT...NE GA AND SW NC MTNS BY THE AFTERNOON. POPS WILL RISE
QUICKLY INTO THE HIGH CHANCE AND LOW/END LIKELY RANGE SUN AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FAR WEST...HOWEVER PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW
THROUGH THE NRT PERIOD AS INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW KEEPING CONVEC
PRECIP WELL SOUTH. POPS WILL REMAIN NIL OUTSIDE THE MTNS AND SW/RN
ZONES. MAX TEMPS WILL FEATURE A SW/NE COOL/WARM GRADIENT DUE TO
CLOUD COVER AND DIFF HEATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...AN H5 SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT FROM THE GULF
COAST TO THE EXTREME SRN APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MERGE WITH A
NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE SWINGING EAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. AT LOWER
LEVELS...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SET UP
OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ACROSS AT LEAST THE SW HALF OF THE
AREA. DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION MON WITH THE
MERGING UPPER WAVES AND PASSING UPPER LEVEL JET DIVERGENCE. AN 850
MB LOW CENTER WILL LIKELY RIDE NE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...SETTING UP ADDITIONAL WEAK FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE
AREA. THESE FEATURES WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE E OR NE TO THE COAST
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...WITH CONTINUED LIGHT PRECIPITATION WRAPPING
BACK OVER THE REGION ON THE W SIDE OF THE LOW.
THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR HEAVY QPF ARE A FAIRLY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER IN THE NC PIEDMONT AT ONSET...AS WELL AS THE STRONG POTENTIAL
FOR GULF COASTAL CONVECTION AND CONVECTION NEAR A WEAK WEDGE
BOUNDARY IMPEDING THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE. SO..THE QUESTION IS NOT
WHETHER IT WILL RAIN...BUT HOW MUCH. THE 12Z GFS IS PRODUCING A
BULLSEYE OF NEARLY 6 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR...BUT
IT FEATURES LITTLE TO NO GULF COASTAL CONVECTION. THIS SOLUTION
SEEMS UNLIKELY...AND THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN HEAVILY ON A
MODEL BLEND WITH A HEAVY NOD TOWARD THE DRIER SREF MEAN AND LATEST
ECM QPF. IN ADDITION...WITH A WEAK SURFACE CAD LAYER PERSISTING OR
REDEVELOPING AS THE RAIN ARRIVES...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LARGELY
SHUNTED SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING EVENT. WITH 850 TO 500
MB LAPSE RATES RATHER WEAK OVER THE SFC HIGH...RAINFALL RATES SHOULD
NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FLASH FLOODING. DURATION RAINFALL
ALONG MAIN STEMS AND THE MOST FLOOD PRONE AREAS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED...BUT ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR MUCH OF A
HYDRO THREAT GIVEN EXPECTED QPF/DURATION. STILL...AN HWO MENTION
SEEMS WARRANTED FOR AT LEAST THE HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY. A SMALLER
THAN MOS DIURNAL RANGE ON TEMPS WILL BE FEATURED WITH CAD CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SAT...A WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS A DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHOULD CROSS THE REGION
THU...WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP BY FRI IN LIGHT OF A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES LATE SAT INTO SUN.
AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE WEDGE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION BY
TUE NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THU...YIELDING CONSIDERABLE LLVL
CLOUDINESS AND COOL NE WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD. NE WINDS SHOULD
VEER TO THE SE BY THU NIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFT
EAST WHILE AN ACTIVE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. BOTH THE NEW 12Z GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL REACH
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY AROUND SAT 00Z AND OFF TO OUR EAST BY
AROUND 12Z SAT. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS MINIMAL GIVEN
THE LATE OF GOOD UPPER FORCING/BOUNCY. IN FACT...MODELS HAVE TRENDED
A BIT DRIER AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AS IT CROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HENCE...HAVE INHERITED LOW END CHANCE POPS DURING THE FROPA.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY SAT AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE AND A COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 3-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW TO SCT CU WILL
PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN ABV 030. LOW TO MID LEVEL ATL
MOISTURE FLUX WILL COMMENCE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL BRING IN
CLOUDS...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A RESTRICTIVE CIG MENTION. THESE CLOUDS
WILL ALSO OFFSET MUCH A VSBY CONCERN ARND DAYBREAK.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD
WITH LINGER LOW VFR CU THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ATL MOISTURE FLUX WILL
BRING IN MVFR CLOUDS FAIRLY LATE...ARND DAYBREAK WHICH SHOULD AFFECT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...WITH CIGS LIFTING TO VFR
PROBABLE NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...HIGH LEVELS MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF UNSETTLE WEATHER MOVING NORTH OUT OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. PERIODS OF CONTINUOUS MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL AFFECT THE AREA MON/TUE PRODUCING LOW CIGS AND VSBY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
19-01Z 01-07Z 07-13Z 13-19Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 65%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% LOW 59% LOW 54%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 97% MED 61%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 65%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 98% MED 72%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...SBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1240 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014
.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION
&&
.AVIATION...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH ACROSS MIDDLE TN WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND
TODAY BUT ALL SHOULD BE VFR FOR THE MOST PART. MAYBE A FEW BKN
MVFR CIGS IN AND OUT OF CSV THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANY ISOLATED
SHRA THAT POP UP THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT AFFECT VSBYS/CIGS AT
TERMINALS.
OVERNIGHT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AND WITH
LIGHT WINDS IN STORE...SOME MVFR BR MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND DAWN.
HINTED AT THAT IN ALL TAF SITES. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
LATE MORNING ON BUT MAY NOT AFFECT TAF SITES. BEST CHC LOOKS TO BE
ALONG WEAK SFC TROUGH AND THUS CKV/BNA. INSERTED VCSH TOWARD THE
END OF THIS TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH SITES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/
MORNING UPDATE...
REMOVED MORNING FOG WORDING FROM THE GRIDS/ZONES. MOST OF THE
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK THEREAFTER. HOWEVER...THE HRRR AND
OTHER WRF MODELS SHOW SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. RIGHT NOW LAPS SOUNDINGS HAVE US CAPPED AROUND
600MB BUT COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW SHOWERS DEVELOP GIVEN THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES BELOW THAT. THUS INSERTED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER
THE FAR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE ELSEWHERE.
UPDATE ALREADY SENT.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1002 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014
.MORNING UPDATE...
REMOVED MORNING FOG WORDING FROM THE GRIDS/ZONES. MOST OF THE
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK THEREAFTER. HOWEVER...THE HRRR AND
OTHER WRF MODELS SHOW SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. RIGHT NOW LAPS SOUNDINGS HAVE US CAPPED AROUND
600MB BUT COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW SHOWERS DEVELOP GIVEN THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES BELOW THAT. THUS INSERTED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER
THE FAR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE ELSEWHERE.
UPDATE ALREADY SENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/
UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST
AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO STREAM NORTHWARD UP THROUGH
ALABAMA...GEORGIA INTO SOUTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALONG THE
SOUTH END OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...WHERE STRATOCUMULUS EVIDENT
IN LATEST 11U-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE LOOP. WITH CROSSVILLE ALREADY
BROKEN AM EXPECTING NASHVILLE AND CLARKSVILLE TO GO BROKEN BY 18Z
BUT REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE NEXT 24 HOURS. CROSSVILLE LIKELY TO
BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD. THINK FOR THE MOST PART ANY SHOWERS
WILL HOLD OFF AT THE TERMINAL SITES UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
311 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014
...Heavy Rainfall is Possible Today in South-Central Georgia and
the Florida Big Bend...
.Near Term [Through Today]...
Heavy rain has had a difficult time materializing across most of the
area, despite a tropical airmass in place with an upper trough
approaching. The main limiting factor seems to be the convective
complexes in the Gulf, which are disrupting low-level inflow into
our forecast area. Guidance has insisted since yesterday that this
will change as the thunderstorms over the Gulf weaken, but so far
that has not happened. The HRRR has been particularly bad with this
scenario, continually over-forecasting convection in our area in the
first few hours of its forecast for most of the night. Because of
this mesoscale issue, confidence remains low on the convective
evolution and rainfall amounts across the area for the remainder of
today. As long as significant convection remains over the Gulf, most
of the area will not see heavy rain with the exception of a few
points along the coast.
That being said, satellite imagery has shown some gradual weakening
of the MCS west of Tampa, and there has been a slow uptick in the
rain and embedded convective coverage closer to our coast. The
general movement of this has been more northerly rather than
easterly as well, so perhaps things are beginning to change a
little. However, the threat seems to have diminished enough across
the northwest portions of the area to cancel the watch there. Still
do not feel comfortable canceling the entire watch just yet though
as there still appears to be a window for heavy rainfall and
training echoes across portions of the area through this afternoon.
The greatest potential appears to be across the Florida counties
near the coast, but cannot completely discount portions of south
central Georgia either. As the morning progresses, the western
portions of the watch area may be able to be cancelled early, as
well as the northern portions if convection does not develop there
by mid to late morning. At any rate, we will be mostly rid of this
system in the next 24 hours, and good riddance as it has been a
tough one to forecast.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
A shortwave upper level trough will swing northeastward through the
Appalachian mountain range, lifting the stationary surface front
currently laid out across NE FL from Cross City to Jacksonville
today and tonight, finally pushing it out of the area Tuesday.
Tonight, chances for showers and thunderstorms will be most likely
(60-70%) in south-central Georgia and the Florida Big Bend, with
lower chances (30-50%) to the west. The highest rainfall amounts
will fall during the daytime hours, but isolated areas in south
Georgia and the Big Bend (where PWATs will still be over 2") may see
heavy rainfall early in the night. Tuesday through Wednesday,
chances for showers and thunderstorms will be much lower (30% or
less), with the highest chances staying in the eastern Big Bend.
Lows tonight and Tuesday night will be in the mid to upper 70s.
Highs will be in the mid 80s Tuesday, mid-upper 80s Wednesday.
.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
After a very wet pattern over much of the near and short term
periods, we expect to have a brief break in the unsettled weather
later on Tuesday and through Wednesday, as both Sfc and upper level
ridging build in for a short time. Thereafter, showers and
thunderstorms are expected to return to the fcst in earnest on
Thursday and Friday, as the strongest cold front of the season thus
far approaches from the NW. This cold front is expected to bring a
real taste of fall to the region by Saturday and Sunday, with low
temps possibly reaching the lower to middle 50s over the interior on
Sunday morning, with much drier air also building in under the NW
flow. High temps will still be very close to climo levels, however,
generally in the lower to middle 80s on Sat and Sun. Before the
frontal passage, above normal temperatures are expected to persist,
with the warm and humid air struggling to budge.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Tuesday] Periods of rain and low cigs are expected
through most of the day with MVFR to IFR conditions. Some clearing
is expected around DHN and ECP by the end of the day as the rain
exits that area.
&&
.Marine...
A stationary front will finally exit the area Monday and Monday
night, shifting the winds from southerly to westerly then northerly,
returning back to southerly by mid week. Wind speeds will remain
below headline criteria until early in the weekend, when another
frontal passage may increase winds to cautionary levels.
&&
.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few
days.
&&
.Hydrology...
We have started to trim back the flash flood watch from northwest to
southeast, and additional trimming is likely through the day today
as convection gradually moves to the east. The heavy rain threat is
isolated, so main stem river flooding is unlikely. Isolated spots
within the watch area could still pick up 4-6" of rain in a short
period of time, but most locations will not see that much.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 80 69 86 68 89 / 90 60 20 10 20
Panama City 83 70 86 71 87 / 90 40 20 10 20
Dothan 80 66 86 65 88 / 80 40 10 10 10
Albany 78 66 85 65 87 / 90 50 10 10 10
Valdosta 81 67 85 65 87 / 90 70 20 10 20
Cross City 83 70 86 67 88 / 90 60 30 20 20
Apalachicola 82 71 84 71 85 / 90 50 20 20 20
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Calhoun-Coastal Bay-
Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal
Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Inland Bay-
Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-
Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison.
GA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Baker-Ben Hill-
Berrien-Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Grady-Irwin-
Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Mitchell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
318 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 317 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
Main challenges for this short term forecast period will be first
period (today) temperatures and relative humidity and timing of
precipitation into the WFO PAH CWA near or after midnight going
into Thursday morning.
Short term guidance indicating a slightly cooler bias with maximum
temperatures for this afternoon high temperatures. These
temperatures are approximately 3-5 degrees cooler than surrounding
NWS forecasts. The key balance will be the combination of dry/cold air
advection and subsidence of air parcels below 850 mb. At this
time, am not inclined to go a complete 30 degree spread from
morning minimum temperatures, but at least a 27 degree Fahrenheit
temperatures spread. The 13km RAP guidance is the closest to this
solution for maximum temperatures today.
Ridging across the WFO PAH forecast will remain dominant through
at least 15z-18z (10am-1pm CDT) Wednesday, before cyclonic flow,
increased large scale, lift, differential vorticity, and
acceleration of low level moisture develop and move close to the
area. The main trough axis, near the U.S./Canadian border, near
North Dakota, will be in the process of enhancing/deepening along
the western limb of the trough, deepening the low. This will likely
slow the southeastward movement of the low until along or after
midnight going into Thursday morning. The forecast may still be
too aggressive in timing, but will keep chance PoPs going over the
northwest 1/2 of the WFO PAH CWA until at least 4 am Thursday
morning, before ramping up to match the Thursday daytime PoP
forecast in the extended part of this forecast package.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
Above average forecast confidence continues in the long term as
latest model solutions vary slightly with timing and coverage of
the upcoming weather event, but for the most part are still in the
same ball park.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase from the west on
Thursday as a storm system approaches from the central plains. As
mentioned above, models are slightly different with timing and
placement of selected parameters of this system, but right now the
best timing and coverage area-wide for showers and thunderstorms
should be Thursday night as the system actually crosses the region.
The cold front should be entering the far western portions of our
CWA around 7 PM Thursday and clearing the far southeast sections
around 7 AM Friday. Precipitation chances Friday morning rapidly
diminish from west to east as the front moves off to the east.
In the wake of the front, strong surface high pressure and northwest
flow aloft will usher in a very cool airmass which will keep things
dry and temperatures below normal through the end of the long term
period.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1143 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014
Little change to the existing forecast with the 06Z TAF issuance.
Early morning fog is the only concern, and that should only be an
issue at KCGI and KPAH. However, will have to monitor KEVV
closely, as they had showers all around, but not at, the terminal
early this evening.
A light north wind will mix down by late morning at all sites and
persist through the afternoon. With good radiational cooling
expected again Monday night, would not be surprised to see KCGI
with a reduction to visibility by 06Z Tuesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
Today and Tuesday will probably be the most ideal time period for
fire agency plans for prescribed burns. Should dry air advection
develop as advertised today, widespread minimum relative humidity
values will fall into the 23 to 33 percent range. Ten hour fuel
moisture`s have been staying above at least 9 or 10 percent which
should moderate the speed of fuel drying with tolerance levels.
Mixing heights today and Tuesday will be ideal between 11 am and 9
pm CDT, but diminish from the West as the impact of the upper
ridge dominates over Missouri late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Transport winds and 20 foot winds should remain below 15 mph, but
become more variable in direction on Tuesday and Wednesday. All
factor should remain below critical fire danger levels the next
several days.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DRS
FIRE WEATHER...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
204 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
WITH NEW AVIATION FORECAST...HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER THROUGH TUESDAY
BASED ON OBS AND LATEST MODEL RUNS. TEMPS AND POPS STILL LOOKED
REASONABLE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1052 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH UP WITH
THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 904 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP ALONG THE KY/VA/TN BORDER...WITH
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY INITIATING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WHERE
A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS NOSING IN FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
ACTIVITY...SLOWLY DIMINISHING IT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE
SOUTHEASTERN TERRAIN SHOWERS SEEM TO BE A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...SO
HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM NOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AS THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
AS OF MID AFTERNOON AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO REGION. A WEAK UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE IA/IL
BORDER WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WAS
NEARING THE NORTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED NORTH FROM MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUING TO MEANDER ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA REGION.
IN RATHER WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR...VERY
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT THESE REMAIN RATHER SPARSE.
TONIGHT...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE COMMONWEALTH. AT THE
SAME TIME...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
OH VALLEY REGION AS THE WEAK CLOSED LOW OPENS UP. THIS COMBINATION
SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS LOW CLOUDS AT
TIMES AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES WHERE CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR MAY
NOT EXPERIENCE MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON
MONDAY. THE DEEPEST THE MOISTURE WILL GET SHOULD BE EARLY ON MONDAY
AND AT THAT POINT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE GREATEST AT THAT
POINT...AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WERE USED FOR MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. EVEN ALONG THE VA
BORDER...HOWEVER... ONLY 40 PERCENT POPS WERE USED. MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST FROM THE CREST OF THE SMOKIES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND PIEDMONT.
THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT ANY RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH FOR ONE INITIALLY IN THE EVENING.
CLOUDS...LINGERING MOISTURE AND MORNING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD LIMIT MAX T ON MONDAY AND HAVE GENERALLY
UNDERCUT THE MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS ACROSS THIS REGION.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...WITH THE
AXIS DEPARTING TO THE EAST AROUND SUNSET ON MONDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINNING TO APPROACH
LATE. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LATE MORNING OR
MIDDAY ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE CLOUDS MAY HANG ON EVEN
LONGER NEARER TO THE VA BORDER. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE
FOR A SMALL RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG...POSSIBLY
DENSE IN A FEW SPOTS...AND THE COLDEST MIN T IN THE VALLEYS NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY...WHICH HAS BEEN COMMON AS OF LATE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014
THE MODELS WERE AGAIN IN PRETTY AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE
GENERAL LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING ACROSS THE MID WESTERN CONUS...PRIMARILY OVER
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER
WEATHER WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS
TIME...IN THE FORM OF A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TAKE AWHILE TO REACH OUR AREA...AS THE RIDGE COULD BE QUITE
STRONG AND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ONLY SLOWLY DISPLACED. IT APPEARS
THE UPPER PLAINS LOW WILL FINALLY GAIN ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO PUSH
EASTWARD BEGINNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED
TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...DRAGGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THERE WERE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT OVERALL THEY WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS
COLD FRONT. AS WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE ON THURSDAY...WE CAN EXPECTED A FLUX OF MOISTURE
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ONCE THIS MOIST AIR
INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BREAK OUT ALONG IT. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LIMITED AT THIS
POINT...SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WAS INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST. THE BULK OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR WOULD LIKELY DO SO
DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. A STRONG
RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO BEGIN THE
WEEKEND. THIS...ALONG WITH STRENGTH OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW...SHOULD
MAKE FOR A FAIRLY QUICK FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
A FEW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING NEAR THE VA BORDER AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THEY WERE LIGHT AND WILL REMAIN SO UNTIL THEY TAPER OFF ON
MONDAY MORNING. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOG. ITS DEVELOPMENT WAS
ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY IN VALLEYS AND BEGINNING TO SPREAD. TAF SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR OR LOWER BEFORE DAWN. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING...LEAVING VFR.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
536 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPPING
SE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND NRN MN. AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED SHARP COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM SCNTRL MN THRU WI AND THEN ACROSS SCNTRL AND ERN
UPPER MI. IT APPEARS A WEAK SFC WAVE MAY BE LOCATED ALONG THE TROF
IN UPPER MI. AS EXPECTED...NEARLY ALL PCPN IS OCCURRING ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE A NICE RIBBON OF LOW-MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORCING IS LOCATED UNDERNEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE OF
UPPER JET.
INHERITED FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION TODAY.
WELL-DEFINED UPPER JET STREAK BEGINS TO LOSE DEFINITION TODAY.
THUS...UPPER JET FORCING AND CORRESPONDING LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ALSO BEGIN TO WEAKEN. SHOULDN`T HAVE AN IMMEDIATE
IMPACT ON BAND OF PCPN PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE MAY BE
SOME TENDENCY FOR PCPN TO BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED AND LIGHTER
WITH TIME AS THE PCPN MOVES ACROSS THE SRN FCST AREA. OVERALL...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO PCPN TIMING THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. BIGGER CHANGE WAS TO
DIMINISH POPS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY AS
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER QVECTOR DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES.
CYCLONIC FLOW/ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LAKE-850MB DELTA T
NEARING THE MARGINAL THRESHOLD FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN SHOULD WORK TO
HOLD IN SOME -RA/-SHRA NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NCNTRL UPPER
MI WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE BEST. WITH CAA AND CLOUD COVER LIKELY
HOLDING TOUGH THRU THE DAY...TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE
40S ACROSS THE W AND NCNTRL AND SHOULD SLOWLY FALL FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ELSEWHERE.
ANY LINGERING PCPN (-SHRA/-DZ) MAINLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL END
TONIGHT AS GRADUALLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA AND AS
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS MODERATES...ENDING ANY LAKE COMPONENT TO PCPN.
TEMPS POSE A CHALLENGE AS CLOUD COVER WILL DICTATE HOW LOW TEMPS
FALL. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDINESS WILL
LINGER TONIGHT. BEST CHC FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...PROBABLY LATE
IN THE NIGHT...WILL BE OVER THE W WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ANTICYCLONIC OVERNIGHT. TEMPS IN THAT AREA MAY FALL TOWARD
FREEZING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST STARTING 12Z TUE LOOKS PRETTY QUIET
AS A SHARP UPPER RIDGE AND SFC RIDGE PASS THROUGH THE CWA. THE
AIRMASS WARMS A BIT ON TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN...WITH 850MB
TEMPS INCREASING FROM 7-11C AT 12Z TUE TO 8-14C AT 00Z WED. WILL NOT
SEE FULL SFC WARMING POTENTIAL OF THE AIRMASS DUE TO A CLOUDY START
TO THE DAY AND SLOW CLEARING...BUT HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN
THE 50S.
W OF THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSITING THE REGION IS A AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROUGH COVERING THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE E...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD
TO WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT MOVING IN TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
SET TO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. THIS LEADS TO RAIN MOVING
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA FRI MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...EVENTUALLY COVERING THE ERN CWA ON THU. THE RAIN MAY HAVE
SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...BUT THAT IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. EVEN SO...MODEL
AGREEMENT DOES ALLOW FOR ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO HAVE LIKELY POPS
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE 8-14C 850MB
TEMPS WILL REMAIN THROUGH WED...ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO BE IN THE 60S.
HIGH FOR THU WILL BE SIMILAR SINCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN
THE DAY AND IS RELATIVELY WEAK.
REAL SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE LONG TERM IS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS GETS REINFORCED
BY ENERGY MOVING OUT OF CANADA. THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP AND MOVES
INTO THE CWA LATE THU NIGHT INTO SAT...BEFORE MOVING E BY SUN. WHILE
MODELS DO AGREE WELL ON THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN...THERE ARE MANY
UNCERTAINTIES ON A SMALLER SCALE WITH EMBEDDED ENERGY AND
CYCLOGENESIS/SFC FEATURE DEVELOPMENT. CAN SAY WITH GOOD CERTAINTY
THAT IT WILL BE COLDER AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO BELOW 2C BY FRI
EVENING AND AS LOW AS -5C ON SAT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT RISE ABOVE
50 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS ON SAT...WITH THE WARMER LOCATIONS JUST
BARELY GETTING ABOVE 50 DEGREES. WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS UNCERTAIN DUE
TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL FEATURES...BUT LAKE EFFECT RAIN /AND MAYBE SOME SNOW
FLAKES...BUT NO ACCUMULATING SNOW/ NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR IS MORE
CERTAIN JUST DUE TO THE COLD AIRMASS AND N TO NW LOW LEVEL WINDS.
SUN DOES LOOK DRIER AND WARMER...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT OF LIGHT
PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
LIFR AT KCMX AND KIWD HAS SPREAD INTO KSAW AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN IN ITS WAKE.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AT KCMX THIS AFTN AS THE NE WIND WILL BE
LESS FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT KIWD AND KSAW ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO SEE MUCH IMPROVEMENT UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED BY EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
IN THE WAKE OF A SHARP COLD FRONT PASSING THRU THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...N TO NE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-30KT OVER MUCH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THAT RANGE TODAY...
BUT THERE WILL BE SOME DIMINISHING OF WINDS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
THIS AFTN AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH COLD FRONT MOVING FARTHER
FROM THE AREA. DURING THE MORNING...THERE MAY BE A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS OVER NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES OVER NRN ONTARIO MOVES CLOSER. WINDS UNDER 20KT
WILL BE THE RULE TUE THRU THU. HOWEVER...AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SOME ON WED BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER ON WED...MAINLY
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. FRI INTO SAT...COLDER AIR SWEEPING INTO THE
UPPER LAKES BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO
STRENGTHENING NW WINDS AND POTENTIALLY GALES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
406 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
ITS BACK TO REALITY THIS MORNING IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT.
AFTER A BEAUTIFUL DAY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S...WHICH BY THE
WAY WAS THE FOURTH DAY IN A ROW WITH HIGHS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MORE IN THE 55 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FA. THIS WILL RESULT IN TODAY BEING
20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE HIGHS ON SUNDAY.
THE COOL DOWN TODAY IS THE RESULT OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
STRETCHED FROM NEAR KEAU TO FSD EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT.
BANDS OF SHOWERS EXIST TO THE REAR OF THE FRONT AND STRETCH FROM FAR
NORTHERN WI TO NEAR BIS. THE SHOWERS ARE WELL DEFINED BY A BAND OF
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE ARW/NMM WRFS AS WELL AS THE HRRR ARE
LAGGING BY A FEW HOURS ON THE SOUTHEAST PROPAGATION OF THE SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. ONE EXCEPTION IS THE HOPWRF...WHICH HAS HANDLED
THE OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT MUCH BETTER. THEREFORE...THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING WAS MODELED TOWARDS THE HOPWRF. THIS
BRINGS SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH CENTRAL MN...THE TWIN CITIES
METRO AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL WI. THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH HEADING
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING DIMINISH.
RATHER EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TWIN
CITIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH EVEN THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S IN OUR NE CWA
AROUND RICE LAKE AND LADYSMITH TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
THE WORK WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE SCALE THROUGH THAT WILL
BE WORKING ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM...BRINGING WITH IT ENHANCED CHANCES
FOR PRECIP TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AND
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...WE WILL GET INTO
NW FLOW THAT WILL FEATURE US GETTING INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF A
CLIPPER ON SUNDAY.
FOR THE WORK WEEK SYSTEM...THERE A 3 WAVES OF INTEREST THAT WILL
IMPACT THE MPX AREA AS THE MEAN THROUGH WORKS THROUGH. THE FIRST
WAVE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AND WILL WORK ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AS A COMPACT NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH ON TUESDAY. WAVE TWO WILL BE A MORE SUBTLE FEATURE
COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY THAT WILL WORK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THE FINAL SHORT WAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA
WILL COME DOWN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MODEL AGREEMENT IS HIGH WITH THE FIRST WAVE. WAVE TWO STILL HAS
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR WEST IT WILL TRACK...WITH
DISCREPANCIES IN THE FINAL WAVE DEALING WITH HOW STRONG IT WILL BE.
ALTHOUGH THE FIRST WAVE WILL BE PASSING US BY TO THE WEST...IT WILL
SEND A COLD FRONT INTO MN TUESDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS FROM
DETERMINISTIC...PROBABILISTIC...TO CONVECTIVE ALLOWING SHOW A BAND
OF SHOWERS/STORMS WORKING ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN WRN MN AND EVENTUALLY ENDING UP OVER IN WRN WI BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. USED THE SREF TO TIME A N-S ORIENTED BAND OF
LIKELIES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH THE NIGHT. FROM
THE QPF PERSPECTIVE...INSTABILITY LOOKS PRETTY LIMITED WITH THE
BAND...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY EXCESSIVE RAIN RATES...WITH A GENERAL
QUARTER TO HALF INCH LOOKING LIKELY WITH THIS BAND OF SHOWERS. THE
BIGGER QUESTION WITH THIS FIRST WAVE...IS WHERE DOES THE COLD FRONT
END UP. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE TO THE WEST OF THE MPX
AREA...THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOWING DOWN AS IT WORKS ACROSS MN AS THE
UPPER FORCING DRIVING IT INITIALLY HEADS UP THROUGH MANITOBA. BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THIS FRONT ONLY LOOKS TO BE ABOUT HALF WAY
ACROSS MN.
THIS FRONT AND ITS POSITION WILL BE OF IMPORTANCE FOR WAVE TWO
COMING UP FROM THE SW WED AFTERNOON...AS A HEALTHY SLUG OF RAIN
LOOKS TO TRAVEL NORTH ALONG THE FRONT AS THE UPPER WAVE LEADS TO AN
ENHANCEMENT IN THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS
EVENING...THE GEM/GFS KEPT THE BULK OF THE SECOND WAVES PRECIP
ENTIRELY EAST OF THE MPX CWA...THE ECMWF WAS BRINGING THE CORE OF
THE PRECIP RIGHT UP I-35...WHILE THE NAM WAS IN BETWEEN...THOUGH
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF THAN THE GEM/GFS. GIVEN THE LOCATIONAL
DISCREPANCIES...HAVE HELD POPS DOWN IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE EAST. A BLEND OF THE NAM/ECMWF FOR
QPF WOULD SAY ANOTHER GOOD HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WOULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE FROM MANKATO UP THROUGH THE WRN TWIN CITIES
METRO AND UP INTO DULUTH. BESIDE WHERE THE PRECIP END UP...THERE ARE
ALSO DISCREPANCIES WITH HOW QUICKLY THIS PRECIP EXITS THE
AREA...WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING WRN WI WET RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. NOT TO IGNORE THE WEST SIDE OF THE CWA...DID START REMOVING
POPS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA AS
PRECIP THIS PERIOD WILL BE ALONG/EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
BE WELL EAST OF WRN MN.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE THE MPX AREA BRIEFLY DRY OUT AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...BUT A STRONG WAVE DROPPING
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN INTO CENTRAL MN
BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING IN THE
EAST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE WE FINALLY DRY OUT FOR GOOD FRIDAY NIGHT AS
WE GET WEST OF THE UPPER TROUGH. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS COOL AND BRISK
WITH STRONG NW WINDS...CLOUDS AND HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S CERTAINLY
LIVING UP TO WHAT IS PROBABLY MOST PEOPLES PERCEPTION OF WHAT
OCTOBER IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY IS LIKE.
FOR THE WEEKEND...SFC RIDGING...BRINGING WITH IT CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN A VERY CHILLY START TO SATURDAY...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS GETTING INTO THE 30S. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO DECIDE THIS
WEEK HOW FAR NORTH INTO THE CWA FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL STILL BE
NECESSARY THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL QUICKLY SEE TEMPERATURES START TO
REBOUND SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE GET INTO THE WAA SIDE OF A CLIPPER THAT
WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS NRN MN SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS DRY...COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT WORKING THROUGH. AT
ANY RATE...ANY PRECIP LOOKS LIGHT AND SHORT LIVED AND WE CURRENTLY
LOOK TO HAVE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR SEEING SOME FAST TIMES RUN
DURING THE TWIN CITIES MARATHON ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO STEADILY DROP SOUTHWARD. SOME GUSTINESS IN
WEST CENTRAL MN. MVFR CEILINGS ARE LAGGING SOMEWHAT BUT THERE ARE
SPOTS THAT ARE FILLING IN. FRONT INDEED HAS BEEN MOVING FASTER
THAN MODELS HAD SUGGESTED...SO HAVE BUMPED UP THE ARRIVAL TIME OF
THE WIND SHIFT BY 2-4 HOURS. IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FROM 08Z-12Z ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MN INTO PART OF
WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. SHOWER CHANCE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
MAINLY IN CENTRAL MN WITH BEST LIFT...BEFORE CEILINGS BEGIN LIFTING.
KMSP...MAIN CONCERN DURING THE TAF PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE ARRIVAL
OF PROBABLE MVFR CEILINGS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
RADAR SHOWS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE METRO BY 06Z. THERE
IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AROUND 12Z
BUT IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN AS MVFR...BETWEEN 1000 AND 1600
FEET AGL. SOME CROSSWIND COMPONENT EXPECTED TOMORROW MIDDAY BUT
SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD BE BELOW 15 KNOTS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. MVFR/SHRA LIKELY LATE TUE NIGHT. WINDS E-SE 10-15 KTS.
WED...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS S-SE 10-15 KTS.
THU...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR IN SHRA. WINDS W-NW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...TDK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1128 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MUCH OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN NM HAS DIMINISHED...THOUGH
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND AN ISOLD TS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THRU THE
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN ANY TAF
OVERNIGHT. IFR/MVFR CIGS ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...AND EXPECT THIS TO EXPAND OVERNIGHT. KLVS WILL HAVE THE
LONGEST IMPACTS...WHILE KTCC/KROW IMPACTS WILL BE CLOSER TO
SUNRISE. NEXT LOBE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING OVER NM ON
MONDAY. SHRA/TSRA WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NM...AS EARLY AS 18Z. STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OR NE AT 20 TO 35KT.
SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN WIND GUSTS AOA 50KT AND LARGE HAIL IN
EASTERN NM DURING THE AFTN/EVE.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...929 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014...
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT DOWNWARD WITH CURRENT
ACTIVITY LIMITED TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AND MOVING
SMARTLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. LATEST HRRR INDICATING NOT MUCH
CONVECTION IF ANY WILL LINGER AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING. DID LEAVE THE MENTION OF FOG OVERNIGHT AS SOME EAST
SLOPES SITES ALREADY REPORTING LOW CLOUDS. UPDATED ZFP ALREADY
SENT OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY TURN SEVERE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND POSSIBLY ALSO IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN
THREAT...WITH A CONCERN FOR LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...TOO. A COLD FRONT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A
COOLER DAY MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO REBOUND
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF NM WILL STEER
THE POLAR JET STREAM OVERHEAD THROUGH MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET CORE WILL CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TO EAST
CENTRAL AREAS INCREASING DYNAMIC FORCING AND THE SEVERE THREAT.
WITH 500 MB WINDS NEAR AND A LITTLE ABOVE 50 KT...EVEN AVERAGE
LOOKING STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE CRITERIA
WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND E OF THE
CENTRAL VALLEY.
FARMINGTON ALREADY RECEIVED 1.22 INCHES OF RAIN FROM THIS
SYSTEM...THE SAME AMOUNT OF RAIN THEY RECEIVED IN JUNE...JULY AND
AUGUST COMBINED. WPC QPF PROGS DEPICT ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF
INCH RAIN AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF I-40
AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE THE STORM EXITS THE
REGION. SPOTTIER AND GENERALLY LIGHTER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE...WITH LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION NEAR THE AZ
BORDER. DUE TO THE DRENCHING ALREADY RECEIVED AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
CLEARING SKIES LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NW AND W CENTRAL
PLATEAUS...ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR THAT AREA INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD SEE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND EVEN THE FAR SE AND E CENTRAL PLAINS
DUE TO A MOIST RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE SE OVERNIGHT.
MODELS ARE STILL AT ODDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH
WILL DIP AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FROM THE WNW WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS SUGGEST A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. THE TROUGH
WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT BARRELING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA CAUSING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER
A BRIEF RISE ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.
44
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE SIGNIFICANT DRYING AFTER MONDAY...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
NOT SEE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN BOTH HUMIDITY AND
WIND LEVELS THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND PERHAPS INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
RELATIVELY MOIST/WET PERIOD LINGERS THROUGH MON...ENDING BY OR
DURING THE AFTN FAR WEST CENTRAL AND NW NM...AFTER PASSAGE OF SFC
FRONT AND MID TO UPPER LVL TROUGH THERE BUT NOT TILL THE EVE EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS TONIGHT TO BE
NW AND N CENTRAL NM...THOUGH THEY WILL BE SPOTTY. BEST CHANCES MON
ACROSS NE AND N CENTRAL NM...EXTENDING TO SOME DEGREE INTO CENTRAL
AND E CENTRAL NM. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL PICK-UP AS WELL...LAL
REACHING A 5 BY MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS AND AT LEAST
4 IN NE NM. HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL CONTINUE TO BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT
MOST AREAS THROUGH MON NIGHT...THOUGH PERHAPS LOWERING SOME W
CENTRAL AND NW NM MON NIGHT. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY WITH GOOD MIXING WILL BRING MOSTLY VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
VENT RATES.
THE UPPER LOW TO OPEN UP AND EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH DRIER AIR FOLLOWING BEHIND
IT ON TUESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL TREND DOWN QUICKLY TUE...
BEFORE STABILIZING ON WEDNESDAY. VENT RATES ARE FORECAST TO TAKE A
MODEST TO MODERATE DIP ON TUESDAY...BUT BOUNCE BACK QUICKLY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN ADVANCE OF AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH...
FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE WEDNESDAY
AND PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES
TO MODERATE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND GENERALLY BOUNCE
BACK ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS WITH AN
UPPER HIGH BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
43
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
120 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF TODAY... CROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT... AND THEN
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...
MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH/WEST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A
APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE GULF COAST...WITH THIS LOW (AND BEST PRECIP
CHANCES) PROGGED TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING...AN AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN HAS DEVELOPED AND PERSISTED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR
FROM ATLANTA TO CHARLOTTE...AND THE LATEST HRRR HAS A FAIRLY GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS. THIS AREA OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SPREAD
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY
REMAIN PRECIP FREE THROUGH DAYBREAK. REGARDLESS... ANY PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AS THE AREA IS REMOVED FROM THE BEST FORCING.
WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS...EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS OVER THE SOUTH/WEST
WILL RESULT IN MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS (LOW TO MID 60S) COMPARED TO
THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER (AT LEAST EARLY ON
IN THE NIGHT) MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60
DEGREES BEFORE THE THICKENING CLOUD COVER MOVES EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...
MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF COAST/SE U.S.
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST MONDAY
AND DRIFT OFF THE GA COAST MONDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE FAR SOUTHERN
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...MOST OF THE LIFT TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE PRECIP OVER
CENTRAL NC WILL BE MAINLY GENERATED FROM LIFTING ALOFT...YIELDING TO
LIGHTER PRECIP AMOUNTS. THUS WHAT WAS LOOKING TO BE A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC A FEW DAYS AGO IS NOW LOOKING
MUCH WEAKER. EXPECT PATCHES OF PRECIP TO BREAK OUT IN THE
MORNING...BECOMING LIKELY GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64 BY MIDDAY.
HAVE DECREASED EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS BASED ON LATEST GFS/HPC
GUIDANCE. THIS YIELDS STORM TOTALS RANGING FROM LESS THAN A QUARTER
OF AN INCH NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64...AND A LITTLE MORE THAN A HALF INCH
ACROSS THE SOUTH.
SINCE PRECIP EXPECT TO BE LIGHT/SPOTTY...IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY
THAT A HYBRID/IN-SITU CAD WILL SET-UP. THUS...TEMPS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED UPWARD A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT BUT STILL
ONE TO TWO CATEGORIES BELOW MOS. IF PRECIP FAILS TO
MATERIALIZE...MAX TEMPS IN THE TRIAD AND TRIANGLE AREAS MAY END UP
BEING 3-4 DEGREES WARMER. CURRENTLY...WILL HAVE MAX TEMPS WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO OF 70 EXCEPT OVER TEH FAR NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
LOW-MID 70S MAY OCCUR.
MONDAY NIGHT...PRECIP STILL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE
WEST-NW AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSES AND EXITS THE REGION.
RAINFALL COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE SE COUNTIES WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM SUNDAY...
FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE GUIDANCE TREND HAS
CONTINUED AND APPEARED TO ACCELERATE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL
RUNS OR SO...ALTHOUGH AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE TUESDAY
MORNING...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH AND THEN
HEADS FROM NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST OUT TO SEA. THIS OCCURS AS
A MID-LEVEL LOW MOVES FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC...AND AN EXTENSION OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENS
SLIGHTLY AND MOVES OFFSHORE. THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE
GFS...AND WITH BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ABOUT KIXA TO KFAY AND
EAST...WOULD HANG ON TO LOWER CLOUDS THERE TUESDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...
THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE BASICALLY SUBSIDENT FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
RELATIVELY LOW K INDICES AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT...AND VIRTUALLY NO
QPF. OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN POTENTIAL VORTICITY ON THE 1.5PVU SURFACE...BUT
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ONLY SUGGEST A PERIOD OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS WITH
THESE FEATURES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY
TUESDAY MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 IN DEFERENCE TO THE
NAM...WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IF THE GFS
IS CORRECT...THE SKY FORECAST TUESDAY WILL BE MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN
THIS FORECAST WILL SHOW ESPECIALLY EAST OF U.S. 1...WITH AN AVERAGE
PARTLY SUNNY DAY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
THE MAV AND MET MOS GUIDANCE ARE VERY CLOSE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY AND
ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTATIONS FROM 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES. THESE VALUES WOULD REPRESENT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY TREND HIGHER...NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS
THE MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS...ESSENTIALLY A BLEND OF ALL OF THE GUIDANCE
PACKAGES AVAILABLE BOTH COOL AND WARM FOR HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS 56 TO 61 TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN HIGHS 75 TO 80
WEDNESDAY...COOLEST NORTHEAST WHERE THE CONSENSUS OF GFS AND NAM
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS SUGGESTS ANY HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ARRIVE
DURING THE MORNING AND EXTEND INTO THE AFTERNOON KEEPING SOLAR
INSOLATION LOWER COMPARED TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT BRIEFLY FOR THURSDAY. DURING THIS TIME...BOTH THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF PROVIDE FOR WEAK QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND WHILE
COARSE SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH MODELS SUGGEST LIMITED INSTABILITY AND
SOME AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIFT SHOULD BE WEAK UNDER BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE. THE ECMWF DOES FORECAST A WEAK 700MB WAVE MOVING
THROUGH...SO IF ALL PARAMETERS COME TOGETHER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO COULD OCCUR...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...THE ECMWF
IS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH LOW PRESSURE TO FOLLOW THE RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...WHICH RESULTS IN THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING FASTER
TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY VERY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED
TO THE GFS. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS SIMILAR...THOUGH...PUSHING THE
FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. WHILE
COARSE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT VERY UNSTABLE...THE STRENGTH OF THE
MID-LEVEL WAVE FORECAST BY BOTH MODELS...IN COMBINATION WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND THE JET AXIS ALOFT MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. A SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A SOLID CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY A SHOWER LINGERING INTO EARLY SATURDAY EAST
DEPENDING ON THE FRONTAL TIMING. AN ALTERNATIVE COULD BE FASTER
TIMING OF BOTH THE BEGINNING AND END OF PRECIPITATION IF THE GFS
TRENDS CONTINUE. DRY AND COOL SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO APPROACH...
OR EVEN FALL BELOW...50 DEGREES ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH OF THE
TRIANGLE WHERE 1000-850MB THICKNESSES...GRANTED OUT TO THE END OF
THE SIXTH DAY...WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST A FEW 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 AM MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT CENTRAL NC TAF
SITES... WITH A FEW BRIEF EXCEPTIONS. A THICK DECK OF MID CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS MORNING... WITH CIGS
EXPECTED TO LOWER BELOW 5 000 FT AGL BY MID MORNING (GSO/INT) OR THE
NOON HOUR (RDU/RWI/FAY) ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH. THESE LOWERING CIGS WILL COINCIDE WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN THAT WILL EXPAND OVER THE AREA FROM SW TO NE...
SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH TODAY WHILE DECREASING IN
COVERAGE TO BECOME VERY LIGHT/PATCHY. BRIEF MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THIS LIGHT RAIN... MAINLY NEAR GSO/INT... BUT OVERALL VFR VSBYS
SHOULD STILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...
MAINLY CALM THROUGH DAYBREAK THEN LIGHT/VARIABLE UNDER 6 KTS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY TUE MORNING... ONCE THE VEIL OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS EXITS TO THE EAST THIS EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...
WITH WINDS STAYING VERY LIGHT... CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR POSSIBLE
SHALLOW LIFR STRATUS/FOG BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z TUE MORNING... HOWEVER
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH BASED ON DIFFERING COMPUTER MODEL SOLUTIONS. IF
IT OCCURS... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MID MORNING TUE. MVFR
FOG IS POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE AND AROUND SUNRISE WED MORNING UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST FRI... BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND
RISING SHOWER CHANCES STARTING FRI. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
342 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF COAST WILL TRACK TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY THIS EVENING...THEN OUT TO SEA WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS OUR AREA. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
ARRIVES AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT MONDAY...
FORECAST CENTERED AROUND NWD EXTENT OF MOISTURE VERSUS WEAKENING
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. RADAR SHOWING RAIN MOVING
NEWD ACROSS THE VA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WITH ANOTHER NARROW AREA
OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS FAR SW VA INTO WV. 05Z HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON THIS THROUGH DAWN...SHOWING TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF
MOISTURE. QPF WILL BE LIGHT AND KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR
NOW AS ACTIVITY IS SCATTERED.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE MAIN NOSE OF DEEPER MOISTURE
TO GET SHOVED EAST. APPEARS THE SOUTHEAST CWA WILL BE MORE IN LINE
TO GET A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN OR SO COMPARED TO THE NW CWA...ONCE
THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE MTNS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE 0Z
NAM/CMC SHOWING DRIER AIR ERODING CLOUD COVER IN THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN WEAK LOW IN THE LOW LVLS THE MOISTURE MAY BE
HARDER TO SCOUR OUT...WITH LINGERING STRATOCU HANGING IN.
NONETHELESS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE EXITS THIS EVENING LEAVING BEHIND
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN IN THE MTNS. SOME CLEAR
TO TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT LEADING TO FOG FORMATION AS NO APPRECIABLE
WINDS TO KEEP THINGS MIXED.
AS FOR TEMPS...TRICKY TODAY GIVEN EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN.
INSITU WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALTHOUGH IN A VERY WEAKENED STATE.
STILL TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND
SLIGHTLY EAST. COUNTING ON SOME LIMITED INSOLATION AND A MILD START
TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT...WITH SOME BREAKS
IN THE WEST TO ALLOW FOR LOWER 70S AS WELL ACROSS SE WV...PORTIONS
OF SW VA.
LOWS TONIGHT TO STAY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AS NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE
IN AIRMASS. LOOKING AT MOST PLACES GETTING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...
UPPER TROF CURVES OUT CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WHICH
TRACKS EASTWARD TO OFF THE ENGLAND COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW WILL PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM GULF
DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WELL OFF THE EAST COAST.
WITH SOME DRYING OF THE COLUMN AND WARMING OF THICKNESS EXPECTED
TUESDAY...THUS WENT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY FROM THE LOWER
70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. LEANED
LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT CLOSE TO THE ADJMETBC WITH READINGS
FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
AS SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH ROTATES EAST WEDNESDAY...ALLOWED FOR SOME
LIGHT POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
70 DEGREES TO THE UPPER 70S. THE BULK OF THE RICHEST MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE CENTER. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY REMAIN
ABUNDANT WITH A THETA-E RIDGE OVER THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO
LOCATED OVER THE AREA AND AS WINDS TURN TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER WEDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH...LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE ALONG
AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PLAYED LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MAY
HELP SCOUR CLOUDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE THEY
SPREAD BACK IN THURSDAY NIGHT. SHAPED HIGHS ON THURSDAY CLOSE TO
SUPERBLEND MOS FROM AROUND 70 IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE
EAST. AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT
ALLOWED FOR SOME LIGHT POPS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. MAINTAINED
CONTINUITY LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...
THE WEDGE WILL ERODE AND BREAK THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. PREFRONTAL SHOWERS WILL ENTER
THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
FRIDAY EVENING. MAJORITY OF THE RAIN /0.25/ WILL FALL OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS /0.10/ EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WE DO
EXPECTED SHOWERS TO ADVANCE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS WINDS BACK TO
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITIES ARE NOT LOOKING
STRONG...THEREFORE MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER FROM
ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODELS ARE ALSO MOVING
THIS FRONT FASTER ACROSS THE REGION...CLEARING THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A STRAY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORT WAVE PIVOT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WITH LITTLE TO NO GREAT LAKES TRAJECTORY...WE
WILL JUST CALL SATURDAY A RAIN FREE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING
BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY...AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES EAST...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HIGHS WILL
RUN 5F-10F COOLER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 118 AM EDT MONDAY...
THE MOISTURE SPREADING NWD INTO OUR AREA WILL BE MAINLY IN VFR IN
TERMS OF CIGS. MODELS ARE KEEPING A HEAVIER QPF/RAIN TO THE SOUTH
BUT STRETCH SOME LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING ENDING BY
LATE IN THE DAY OUT EAST. MOST TERMINALS WILL LIGHT RAIN TODAY BUT
OBSCURATION TO VSBYS WILL BE MAINLY 6SM OR GREATER. UNTIL THEN THE
HIGH CLOUDS MAY THIN OUT SOME IN LWB TO ALLOW FOR FOR DEVELOPMENT
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE ONLY MODERATE FOR MVFR.
THROUGH THE DAY...CIGS WILL LOWER BUT STAY GENERALLY VFR...THOUGH
BLF COULD DROP TO MVFR AFTER 17Z.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MOST OF THE RAIN MOVES OUT MONDAY EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR FOG
FORMATION LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AT LWB/BLF...PERHAPS BCB.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
LOW LVL MOISTURE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT MAY LEAD TO SUB
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS. IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SOME LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW COULD LEAD TO SUB VFR
CIGS/VSBYS ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH US BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SUB VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK/RCS
AVIATION...NF/PM/WP
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
SOME SHOWERS AND TURNING SHARPLY COLDER TODAY.
UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY CLOSED AND NEARLY CUT-
OFF LOW OVER THE WRN CONUS...AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OVER THE ERN
CONUS...AND THE MAIN WESTERLIES ACRS CANADA. THE WRN LOW WL GET
RE-ENERGIZED AS ANOTHER UPR LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF AK
DIGS SE AND PHASES WITH IT...WITH THE RESULTING UPR TROF BECOMING
PROGRESSIVE. THE TROF WL REACH ERN NOAM BY NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE A
RIDGE FORMS OUT WEST. THE NEW PATTERN WL HAVE MODEST AMPLITUDE.
STG COLD FRONT DRIVING SWD ACRS THE AREA TDA WL BRING AN ABRUPT
END TO THE STRING OF UNSEASONABLY WARM WX. TEMPS WL CRASH TO BLO
NORMAL LEVELS BY TOMORROW...RECOVER TO NR OR A LITTLE ABV NORMAL
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD MID-WK...THEN DROP OFF TO A LITTLE BLO NORMAL
BY THE WEEKEND. PCPN IS LIKELY TO END UP AOA NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD. WHILE SOME RN IS EXPECTED TDA...THE BULK OF THE PCPN WL
FALL DURING THE MIDDLE-LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK WHEN THE LARGE
SCALE UPR TROF CROSSES THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
THE OVERALL FCST IS PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD. STG COLD FRONT WL DROP
S ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTN. FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING COMBINED WITH QG FORCING FM FAIRLY STG SHRTWV DROPPING SE
WL RESULT IN LIFT BACK OVER THE FRONTAL SFC...AND A BAND OF POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS. BUT THERE WERE PLENTY OF FCST DETAILS TO WORK OUT
IN THE GRIDS INCLUDING TIMING OF PCPN AND POPS...THE NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND TDA...WINDS IN ERN WI...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LAKE-EFFECT CLDS AND PCPN TNGT INTO EARLY TUE.
THE FRONT IS ALREADY INTO THE FCST AREA...AND EXPECT IT TO CLR THE
AREA ARND 16Z. SHRA JUST ENTERING NW VILAS COUNTY. WENT WITH CAT
POPS FOR THE FAR N THIS MORNING...THEN STUCK WITH LIKELIES AT
BEST LATER TDA AS COVERAGE OF SHRA MIGHT NOT BE COMPLETE...ESP
OVER THE SW CORNER OF THE FCST AREA. BASED ON THE REACTION OF THE
WINDS ON ERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING...EXPECT A PRETTY STG SWD
PUSH OF THE FRONT DOWN THE BAY. SO ADDED SOME GUSTY N-NE WINDS
MID-DAY OVER ERN WI IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
LIKED THE WAY THE RAP HELD ONTO SHRA OVER E-C WI INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...AS SHRTWV DROPPING SWD BEHIND THE FRONT WL BE PRETTY
STG. A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONGER NNE FLOW IS LIKELY
OVERNIGHT AS 925 MB FLOW COMES ARND TO THE NNE AND COLD AIR ALOFT
RESULTS IN STG INSTABILITY OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE
LAKE AND BAY.
WAS MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE IN GETTIG
RID OF THE CLDS LATER TDA/TNGT. EARLY MORNING STLT SHOWED AN
EXPANSIVE LOW-DECK BEHIND THE FRONT...AND N/NELY FLOW DOWN ACRS
LAKES SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN WL LIKELY GENERATE MORE CLDS. WOULD NOT
EVEN BE SURPRISED TO GET SOME LGT LAKE-EFFECT SHRA. JUST CARRIED
AS SPRINKLES FOR NOW. A FROST/FREEZE WOULD BE LIKELY ACRS ABOUT
THE NWRN 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA IF CLDS CLEAR OUT COMPLETELY...BUT
JUST HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING THAT HAPPENING. WENT A BIT ABV GUID
WITH MINS PRIMARILY IN THE MIDDLE 30S NW...TO MIDDLE 40S SE. DAY
SHIFT SHOULD HAVE THE BENEFIT OF TRACKING THE CLD TRENDS DURING
THE DAY...AND CAN ADJUST MINS AND POST ANY NEEDED FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES THIS AFTN IF NECESSARY.
QUIETER WX WL RETURN TUE...BUT THE CANADIAN AIR MASS WL BE
ENTRENCHED ACRS THE AREA BY THEN SO WENT TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
THE GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
STILL LOOKING FOR A PATTERN CHANGE TO TAKE PLACE LATER THIS WEEK AS
MEAN TROUGHING SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE TRANSITION
OCCURS...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL ARRIVE DURING THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL
HAVE A FEW DETAILS TO GET WORKED OUT...SINCE EACH SOLUTION HAS A
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING/STRENGTH OF SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. WILL
LEAN ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF...THOUGH WILL ALSO WORK IN THE
GEM. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE PREFERRED BY HPC.
TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
NORTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING
EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WILL HAVE EASTERLY WINDS
EMANATING OUT OF THE HIGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FEEDING DRY AIR INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF WISCONSIN WHICH WILL TRY TO FIGHT BACK SHOWERS
WITHIN A MID-LEVEL THETAE AXIS OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN. THINK THE DRY AIR
WILL WIN OUT AND WILL STICK WITH A DRY FORECAST. THE BAND OF
SHOWERS WILL STALL ON WEDNESDAY AS IT LOSES ITS FORWARD PUSH. BUT
THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE SHOWERS COULD IMPACT NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN SO WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES. THE EAST SHOULD REMAIN
DRY WITH EAST WINDS CONTINUING. THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL GET SOME
FORWARD MOMENTUM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHT FALLS TAKE PLACE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE CHANCE OF PRECIP INTO EASTERN
WISCONSIN. COULD SEE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT IN
GENERAL...INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL. WILL DROP HIGHS OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO PRECIP AND
CLOUDS BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN IN THE 60S EVERYWHERE. NO CHANGES TO
LOW TEMPS.
REST OF THE FORECAST...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
BUT SOME INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THAT COULD PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP.
THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING WESTERN TROUGH REACHES THE STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL MARK THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG SECONDARY FRONT. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY BENEATH THE TROUGH. THEN
PRECIP CHANCES START TO FALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHEN THE
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. BUT COLDER AIR WILL BE
ARRIVING BY THIS TIME...WHEN HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE
50 DEGREES IN SPOTS. SOME MODERATING OCCURS ON SUNDAY BEFORE
RETURNING MOISTURE CREATES ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN LATER SUNDAY
OR NEXT MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY ACRS NRN WI IMMEDIATELY BEHIND A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SWD ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THEN CIGS ACRS THE ENTIRE
AREA SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE MVFR RANGE FOR LATER TDA INTO TNGT.
SUSPECT THE MVFR CIGS WL BE SLOWER TO DEPART THAN DEPICTED ON MANY
OF THE FCST MODELS DUE TO THE FLOW OF COLD AIR SSWWD ACRS THE GREAT
LAKES.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1019 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
.UPDATE...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW UP TO 800MB...AND THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST STATES. AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH PWATS INCREASING FROM 1.8 INCHES THIS MORNING TO
2.2-2.4 INCHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL
PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ALONG IT OR PUSH INTO THE BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST. STORMS WILL THEN
PUSH SLOWLY TOWARDS THE EAST COAST IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF RUNS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY...AND THE LATEST
RUNS ARE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE STORMS MOVING EAST AND
QUICKLY INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOKS
TO BE ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. BUMPED UP POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THE EAST COAST
METROS AND ADDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING TO THE ZFP.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN DISSIPATE OVER HEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK-WEEK. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MARKED PATTERN SHIFT INITIATES TODAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE SE CONUS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURES AXIS
CROSSING MS/AL EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL CROSS GA AND N FL
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOPRES IS JUST
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERNMOST GULF...AND IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTH AND MOVE ENE NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER TODAY...WITH COLD
FRONT TRAILING TO THE WSW BEHIND IT. ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL PUSH
COPIOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH AND EASTERN FROM THE GULF ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA. EXPECT PLENTY OF CONVECTION TO
FIRE AHEAD OF THE LOPRES AND FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF CWA.
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...STEERING FLOW ALOFT HAS ALREADY TURNED
SW...AND WILL CONTINUE TRANSITIONING TO THAT DIRECTION AT LOWER
LEVELS TODAY. ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL SERVE AS FOCUS OF TSTM
INITIATION IN SOFLA...PROVIDING THE CONVERGENCE TO COMBINE WITH
THE ASCENT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH.
TSTMS SHOULD FORM OVER THE INTERIOR REGION /WEST OF SUBURBS/.
HOWEVER...THE SW WINDS ALOFT WILL CAUSE STORMS TO PROPAGATE BACK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...LEAVING HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN METRO AREAS.
EQUILIBRIUM/STORM TOP OUTFLOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NORTHERLY...ALSO
CANT RULE OUT SEA- BREEZE CONVECTION OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
SPREADING SOUTH INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY. STORMS WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCERS AND SLOW-MOVING. ANYWHERE WHERE A STORM
STALLS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE COUNTY...ESPECIALLY OVER PALM BEACH
COUNTY...COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT /PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS LAKE OKEECHOBEE/ AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE...WHICH WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND
PROGRESS. THUS...EAST COAST AND NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE
HAVE HIGHEST POPS.
IN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM...APPROACHING 90F DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND REMAINING
IN 70S OVERNIGHT. KFLL TIED DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMP
SATURDAY WITH 82F...AND HAS BROKEN SUNDAYS RECORD WITH 81F. IF AIR
DOESNT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY RAIN COOLED THERE TODAY...ANOTHER
RECORD MAY BE BROKEN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE FORECAST WITH L/V SURFACE
WIND AT ALL TERMINALS. A FEW SMALL SHRA ARE NOTED OVER THE
ATLANTIC BUT TOO FEW TO EVEN MENTION VCSH IN ANY OF THE TAFS.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH STORM MOTION TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE QUESTION IS
HOW FAST WILL THIS STEERING FLOW BECOME ESTABLISHED. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BUT WINDS ALOFT TO STEER THE STORMS WILL
NOT BE NECESSARILY STRONG SO MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE LEFT VCTS IN THE FORECAST BUT MAY
NEED TO ADD TEMPO GROUPS WITH LATER UPDATES IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.
MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE WATERS...VEERING TO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL
OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AWAY
FROM CONVECTION...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 75 90 75 / 70 50 60 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 77 91 77 / 70 50 60 20
MIAMI 90 77 91 77 / 70 40 50 20
NAPLES 88 77 88 77 / 40 10 40 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
959 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MEANWHILE, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS
PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION. A STRONG +90KT JET
CORE IS EXITING THE TROUGH AXIS AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
ARIZONA INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. NEAR THE SURFACE, A LEE SIDE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN
COLORADO. MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO EDGE NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW, CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CA/NV BORDER, WILL EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
BY THIS AFTERNOON THEN THROUGH COLORADO THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES WESTERN KANSAS WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. TOWARDS THE SURFACE, LEE
TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO BE FELT ACROSS THE CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AROUND
PEAK HEATING AND SLOWLY TREK EASTWARD AS THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING PROGRESSES. THESE STORMS THEN MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING SPREADING ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWEST
KANSAS WHERE SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING BUT DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY THE FARTHER WEST THEY GO. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY TOMORROW
MORNING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME CLEARING IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY TOMORROW MORNING. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 80
DEGREES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 80S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
AT 12Z TUESDAY A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NEBRASKA AND A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL TO BE LOCATED ACROSS COLORADO. THIS SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET THAT WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE
PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BRIEFLY STALLS OUT
FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. GIVEN MOISTURE AND
LIFT PRESENT NEAR/EAST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH
IMPROVING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SECOND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE AT 00Z
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE AREA MORE FAVORABLE
FOR THESE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF
HIGHWAY 283. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY HAS A DECENT HANDLE
WITH THIS CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY SO WILL NOT STAY FAR FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. A FEW STORMS LATE TUESDAY MAY BE SEVERE GIVEN
00Z NAM CAPES AND 0-6KM SHEAR AT 00Z WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS AND
QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN
HAZARD.
AS THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS
TUESDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE WEDNESDAY A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.
BY 00Z THURSDAY THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST BY THE GFS TO BE
LOCATED FROM THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TO NORTHEASTERN KANSAS
KANSAS. MOISTURE, INSTABILITY AND SHEAR LATE WEDNESDAY NORTH OF
THIS FRONT FAVORS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE A MID
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE LOCATED.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL INVADE
WESTERN KANSAS BY EARLY THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. GIVEN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT
SURFACE WINDS OF UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEHIND
THIS COLD FRONT AND GIVEN THE MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS AND A 500MB COOL POOL CROSSING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES TRICKY
ON THURSDAY. JUST USING THE GFS 850MB TEMPERATURE AT 00Z FRIDAY AS
A FIRST GUESS THE HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 60S.
GIVEN THE COOLING TREND ADVERTISED IN THE 925-850MB LEVEL AND
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WILL STAY CLOSE OR UNDERCUT THE LATEST
CREXTENDEDFCST_INIT.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD AS NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO. THE STRONGER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE GARDEN
CITY AREA. 06Z NAM AND HRRR WERE BOTH GOOD AGREEMENT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY
BROKEN CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE CLOUD BASES
MAINLY BETWEEN 3500 TO 8000 FT AGL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 83 61 84 56 / 10 30 20 20
GCK 82 57 82 54 / 20 40 20 10
EHA 82 57 81 51 / 40 50 10 0
LBL 83 61 83 53 / 10 30 20 10
HYS 83 63 80 58 / 10 80 50 20
P28 86 63 85 63 / 10 30 30 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
602 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW, CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CA/NV BORDER, WILL EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
BY THIS AFTERNOON THEN THROUGH COLORADO THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES WESTERN KANSAS WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. TOWARDS THE SURFACE, LEE
TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO BE FELT ACROSS THE CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AROUND
PEAK HEATING AND SLOWLY TREK EASTWARD AS THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING PROGRESSES. THESE STORMS THEN MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING SPREADING ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWEST
KANSAS WHERE SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING BUT DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY THE FARTHER WEST THEY GO. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY TOMORROW
MORNING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME CLEARING IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY TOMORROW MORNING. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 80
DEGREES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 80S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
AT 12Z TUESDAY A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NEBRASKA AND A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL TO BE LOCATED ACROSS COLORADO. THIS SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET THAT WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE
PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BRIEFLY STALLS OUT
FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. GIVEN MOISTURE AND
LIFT PRESENT NEAR/EAST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH
IMPROVING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SECOND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE AT 00Z
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE AREA MORE FAVORABLE
FOR THESE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF
HIGHWAY 283. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY HAS A DECENT HANDLE
WITH THIS CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY SO WILL NOT STAY FAR FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. A FEW STORMS LATE TUESDAY MAY BE SEVERE GIVEN
00Z NAM CAPES AND 0-6KM SHEAR AT 00Z WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS AND
QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN
HAZARD.
AS THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS
TUESDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE WEDNESDAY A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.
BY 00Z THURSDAY THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST BY THE GFS TO BE
LOCATED FROM THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TO NORTHEASTERN KANSAS
KANSAS. MOISTURE, INSTABILITY AND SHEAR LATE WEDNESDAY NORTH OF
THIS FRONT FAVORS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE A MID
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE LOCATED.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL INVADE
WESTERN KANSAS BY EARLY THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. GIVEN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT
SURFACE WINDS OF UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEHIND
THIS COLD FRONT AND GIVEN THE MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS AND A 500MB COOL POOL CROSSING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES TRICKY
ON THURSDAY. JUST USING THE GFS 850MB TEMPERATURE AT 00Z FRIDAY AS
A FIRST GUESS THE HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 60S.
GIVEN THE COOLING TREND ADVERTISED IN THE 925-850MB LEVEL AND
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WILL STAY CLOSE OR UNDERCUT THE LATEST
CREXTENDEDFCST_INIT.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD AS NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO. THE STRONGER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE GARDEN
CITY AREA. 06Z NAM AND HRRR WERE BOTH GOOD AGREEMENT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY
BROKEN CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE CLOUD BASES
MAINLY BETWEEN 3500 TO 8000 FT AGL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 83 61 84 56 / 10 30 20 20
GCK 82 57 82 54 / 20 40 20 10
EHA 82 57 81 51 / 40 50 10 0
LBL 83 61 83 53 / 10 30 20 10
HYS 83 63 80 58 / 10 80 50 20
P28 86 63 85 63 / 10 30 30 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1050 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF MORNING FOG AND
AFTERNOON WORDING. OVERALL THE FORECAST STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK
SO FAR TODAY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN
POPPING UP ALONG THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS SO FAR THIS
MORNING. BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES FORMING EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. THEREFORE WILL LET THE FORECAST
RIDE AS IS CONCERNING THIS AFTERNOONS PRECIPITATION CHANCE AND AREAL
COVERAGE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 802 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
REFRESHED GRIDS TO REFLECT EARLY MORNING OBS BLENDING INTO THE LATE
MORNING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
SHOWERS FALLING FROM A HIGH CLOUD BASE WERE NEAR THE KY/VA BORDER
OVERNIGHT. THIS REGIME IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AFTER A LULL...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR
MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS HEATING LEADS TO SHALLOW
INSTABILITY. IT SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 650 MB. THIS LEVEL IS TOO
WARM FOR GLACIATION OF CLOUD TOPS...BUT ALLOWS FOR A DEEP ENOUGH
CLOUD TO PERHAPS GET SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. THESE WILL DIE
OUT WITH LOSS OF HEATING MONDAY EVENING. DURING THE NIGHT...SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WHILE SLIGHT
WARMING OCCURS IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH LITTLE OR NO CU DEVELOPMENT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
MODELS ARE STARTING TO WAVER A BIT WITH AN EXPECTED COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY...BUT OVERALL STILL IN AGREEMENT ON WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE ALSO
DIVERGING ON POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS HEADING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THUS...WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IS DEGRADED AROUND THE TIMING OF THE RAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK...THEN EXACTLY HOW COLD/CLOUDY IT WILL END UP THIS
WEEKEND.
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...SETTING UP
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A SHARP MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE...COMBINED WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD
PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. WHILE INSTABILITY
IS WEAK...FORCING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
PRODUCE A LIGHTNING STRIKE AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00Z ECMWF SUPPORTS
THE 12Z RUN WITH A FASTER SYSTEM...BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN FASTER
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH EVERYTHING EXITING EARLIER ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS HAS ALSO REMAINED SUPPORTIVE OF A SLOWER
SYSTEM...WITH MORE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ON FRIDAY. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN A LONGER PERIOD OF HIGHER POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
UNCERTAINTY. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE DECENT LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.
AS THE INITIAL FRONT DEPARTS...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SURGE OF MUCH COLDER WEATHER INTO THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A 500MB VORT MAX PUSHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THE 00Z ECMWF CUTS OFF THIS SYSTEM...WITH A MUCH SHARPER TROUGH
PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
SUPPORT MORE CLOUDS AND MUCH COOLER READINGS. MEANWHILE...THE GFS
DOES NOT CUT OFF THIS SYSTEM...AND IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE TROUGH.
GIVEN WE ARE HEADING INTO THE COLD SEASON...TENDENCY IS TO WANT TO
SUPPORT THE SHARPER TROUGH SEEN IN THE ECMWF AS THE PATTERN WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THUS...STAYING WELL BELOW
GUIDANCE ON HIGHS AND LOWS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IF
THINGS PLAY OUT AS THE ECMWF SUPPORTS...WE MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 60
ON SATURDAY WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.
AT THIS TIME...REGARDLESS WHICH SOLUTIONS PLAYS OUT...FROST APPEARS
UNLIKELY AS THE COLDER ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT MORE CLOUD COVER...AND
THE GFS SIMPLY WOULD NOT BE COLD ENOUGH. IN FACT... THE ECMWF MAY
SUPPORT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AS A VORT
MAX DROPS SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. GOING TO LEAVE THINGS
DRY FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD SOME RAIN CHANCES IF THE ECMWF
GAINS SUPPORT. BY SUNDAY...WE SHOULD SEE THE AIR MASS PERHAPS START
TO MODIFY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
THE FOG AND LOW CIGS THAT HAD BEEN PLAGUING SOME OF THE TAF SITES
THIS MORNING HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE. AT THIS
TIME...NONE OF THE TAF SITES ARE REPORTING. SME STILL HAD A CIG OF
300 FEET AT 1445Z...BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT QUICKLY BY
NOON TODAY. AFTER THAT IT LOOKS LIKE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
619 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 317 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
Main challenges for this short term forecast period will be first
period (today) temperatures and relative humidity and timing of
precipitation into the WFO PAH CWA near or after midnight going
into Thursday morning.
Short term guidance indicating a slightly cooler bias with maximum
temperatures for this afternoon high temperatures. These
temperatures are approximately 3-5 degrees cooler than surrounding
NWS forecasts. The key balance will be the combination of dry/cold air
advection and subsidence of air parcels below 850 mb. At this
time, am not inclined to go a complete 30 degree spread from
morning minimum temperatures, but at least a 27 degree Fahrenheit
temperatures spread. The 13km RAP guidance is the closest to this
solution for maximum temperatures today.
Ridging across the WFO PAH forecast will remain dominant through
at least 15z-18z (10am-1pm CDT) Wednesday, before cyclonic flow,
increased large scale, lift, differential vorticity, and
acceleration of low level moisture develop and move close to the
area. The main trough axis, near the U.S./Canadian border, near
North Dakota, will be in the process of enhancing/deepening along
the western limb of the trough, deepening the low. This will likely
slow the southeastward movement of the low until along or after
midnight going into Thursday morning. The forecast may still be
too aggressive in timing, but will keep chance PoPs going over the
northwest 1/2 of the WFO PAH CWA until at least 4 am Thursday
morning, before ramping up to match the Thursday daytime PoP
forecast in the extended part of this forecast package.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
Above average forecast confidence continues in the long term as
latest model solutions vary slightly with timing and coverage of
the upcoming weather event, but for the most part are still in the
same ball park.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase from the west on
Thursday as a storm system approaches from the central plains. As
mentioned above, models are slightly different with timing and
placement of selected parameters of this system, but right now the
best timing and coverage area-wide for showers and thunderstorms
should be Thursday night as the system actually crosses the region.
The cold front should be entering the far western portions of our
CWA around 7 PM Thursday and clearing the far southeast sections
around 7 AM Friday. Precipitation chances Friday morning rapidly
diminish from west to east as the front moves off to the east.
In the wake of the front, strong surface high pressure and northwest
flow aloft will usher in a very cool airmass which will keep things
dry and temperatures below normal through the end of the long term
period.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 619 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
With the 12z Monday issuance, kept a mention of MIFG in place for
KCGI and KPAH. Dealing with ground fog or an elevated and shallow
fog layer overnight. Attempted to deal with this feature with a
higher prevailing visibility with embedded patches of dense ground
fog. The remaining groups basically account for variance of wind
from calm to a prevailing wind direction during maximum mixing,
then back again to calm winds with the development of an inversion.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
Today and Tuesday will probably be the most ideal time period for
fire agency plans for prescribed burns. Should dry air advection
develop as advertised today, widespread minimum relative humidity
values will fall into the 23 to 33 percent range. Ten hour fuel
moisture`s have been staying above at least 9 or 10 percent which
should moderate the speed of fuel drying with tolerance levels.
Mixing heights today and Tuesday will be ideal between 11 am and 9
pm CDT, but diminish from the West as the impact of the upper
ridge dominates over Missouri late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Transport winds and 20 foot winds should remain below 15 mph, but
become more variable in direction on Tuesday and Wednesday. All
factor should remain below critical fire danger levels the next
several days.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...Smith
FIRE WEATHER...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
856 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
TODAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TROUGH OF LO PRES SFC-ALOFT ENTERING RGN ATTM. -RA SPREADING NNE
INTO CNTRL VA RIGHT NOW...AND AS TROUGH SLIDES E...-RA XPCD TO
CONT/SPREAD E INTO THIS AFTN. MNLY FOLLOWED 11Z/29 RUC W/ PCPN
MOVEMENT INTO THIS AFTN...AND RAISED POPS MOST ERN PLACES (TO
40-60%). TEMPS TRICKY DUE TO CLDS AND LGT PCPN...MAY NEED FURTHER
ADJUSTMENT (DOWN) IN NEXT COUPLE/FEW HRS SHOULD TRENDS CONT. QPF
MNLY AOB 1/10TH INCH.
BY LT THIS AFTN...SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST REGION WILL
SLOWLY PUSH ENE AND ELONGATE INTO THE GULF STREAM ATLC WATERS OFF
THE SE COAST. THIS AREA WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND WILL ACT TO LIMIT QPF ACRS THE
MID ATLC AND AREAS FARTHER N. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS ACRS THE
SRN/ERN PORTIONS OF THE FA INTO EARLY EVE...WHILE THE AM PRECIP
AREAS OF THE PIEDMONT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS EVENING...WILL CONFINE HIGHEST CHC POPS TO THE SE...ONLY 20%
OR LESS FARTHER NW...CLEARING OVERNIGHT FROM NW TO SE WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S NW TO THE LWR 60S SE.
FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN NC)...AND A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH
FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA. HAVE POPS BLO 14% MOST
PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL
NE NC (IN THE EARLY MRNG). XPCG PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS N AND
CNTRL...TO PARTLY TO MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.
UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ PSBL BKN CLDNS AND ONLY
SLGT CHC POPS (MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY...W/
HI TEMPS FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT DIGGING A POTENT UPPER LOW
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
HEADS FOR NEW ENGLAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND
FOR DRY WX. HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
70S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 60S MAY BE MORE PROMINENT BY NEXT SUNDAY. LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THRU FRI NIGHT...THEN COOLING INTO THE 40S
TO MID 50S NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISLTD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THRU EARLY THIS MORNG...OTHERWISE EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO TUE MORNG...DESPITE WEAK TROF
APPROACHING AND MOVNG ACRS THE REGION. MODELS INDICATING DEEPEST
LO LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SE STATES. SO...WILL
ONLY HAVE -RA WITH A VFR CIG IN ECG TAF. DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT...WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS
OF FOG OR STRATUS ARND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU TUE NGT. A TROF OF LO PRES
WILL MOVE ACRS THE WTRS AND OUT TO SEA THIS EVENG THRU TUE MORNG.
WINDS WILL BECOME NW OR N ARND 10 KT OR LESS TODAY...N ARND 10 KT OR
LESS TNGT...THEN NE ARND 10 KT OR LESS TUE. A LO PRES SYSTEM WILL
THEN SWING THRU THE NE U.S. AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NGT AND WED...BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST BY THU MORNG. AS A RESULT...NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE A BIT FOR LATE TUE NGT THRU WED NGT...BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING DURING THU. SEAS COULD REACH 4 TO 5 FT ON THE CSTL WTRS
BY WED MORNG...THEN WILL SUBSIDE LATE THU/THU NGT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
743 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPPING
SE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND NRN MN. AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED SHARP COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM SCNTRL MN THRU WI AND THEN ACROSS SCNTRL AND ERN
UPPER MI. IT APPEARS A WEAK SFC WAVE MAY BE LOCATED ALONG THE TROF
IN UPPER MI. AS EXPECTED...NEARLY ALL PCPN IS OCCURRING ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE A NICE RIBBON OF LOW-MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORCING IS LOCATED UNDERNEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE OF
UPPER JET.
INHERITED FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION TODAY.
WELL-DEFINED UPPER JET STREAK BEGINS TO LOSE DEFINITION TODAY.
THUS...UPPER JET FORCING AND CORRESPONDING LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ALSO BEGIN TO WEAKEN. SHOULDN`T HAVE AN IMMEDIATE
IMPACT ON BAND OF PCPN PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE MAY BE
SOME TENDENCY FOR PCPN TO BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED AND LIGHTER
WITH TIME AS THE PCPN MOVES ACROSS THE SRN FCST AREA. OVERALL...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO PCPN TIMING THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. BIGGER CHANGE WAS TO
DIMINISH POPS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY AS
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER QVECTOR DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES.
CYCLONIC FLOW/ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LAKE-850MB DELTA T
NEARING THE MARGINAL THRESHOLD FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN SHOULD WORK TO
HOLD IN SOME -RA/-SHRA NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NCNTRL UPPER
MI WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE BEST. WITH CAA AND CLOUD COVER LIKELY
HOLDING TOUGH THRU THE DAY...TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE
40S ACROSS THE W AND NCNTRL AND SHOULD SLOWLY FALL FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ELSEWHERE.
ANY LINGERING PCPN (-SHRA/-DZ) MAINLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL END
TONIGHT AS GRADUALLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA AND AS
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS MODERATES...ENDING ANY LAKE COMPONENT TO PCPN.
TEMPS POSE A CHALLENGE AS CLOUD COVER WILL DICTATE HOW LOW TEMPS
FALL. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDINESS WILL
LINGER TONIGHT. BEST CHC FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...PROBABLY LATE
IN THE NIGHT...WILL BE OVER THE W WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ANTICYCLONIC OVERNIGHT. TEMPS IN THAT AREA MAY FALL TOWARD
FREEZING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST STARTING 12Z TUE LOOKS PRETTY QUIET
AS A SHARP UPPER RIDGE AND SFC RIDGE PASS THROUGH THE CWA. THE
AIRMASS WARMS A BIT ON TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN...WITH 850MB
TEMPS INCREASING FROM 7-11C AT 12Z TUE TO 8-14C AT 00Z WED. WILL NOT
SEE FULL SFC WARMING POTENTIAL OF THE AIRMASS DUE TO A CLOUDY START
TO THE DAY AND SLOW CLEARING...BUT HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN
THE 50S.
W OF THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSITING THE REGION IS A AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROUGH COVERING THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE E...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD
TO WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT MOVING IN TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
SET TO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. THIS LEADS TO RAIN MOVING
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA FRI MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...EVENTUALLY COVERING THE ERN CWA ON THU. THE RAIN MAY HAVE
SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...BUT THAT IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. EVEN SO...MODEL
AGREEMENT DOES ALLOW FOR ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO HAVE LIKELY POPS
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE 8-14C 850MB
TEMPS WILL REMAIN THROUGH WED...ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO BE IN THE 60S.
HIGH FOR THU WILL BE SIMILAR SINCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN
THE DAY AND IS RELATIVELY WEAK.
REAL SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE LONG TERM IS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS GETS REINFORCED
BY ENERGY MOVING OUT OF CANADA. THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP AND MOVES
INTO THE CWA LATE THU NIGHT INTO SAT...BEFORE MOVING E BY SUN. WHILE
MODELS DO AGREE WELL ON THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN...THERE ARE MANY
UNCERTAINTIES ON A SMALLER SCALE WITH EMBEDDED ENERGY AND
CYCLOGENESIS/SFC FEATURE DEVELOPMENT. CAN SAY WITH GOOD CERTAINTY
THAT IT WILL BE COLDER AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO BELOW 2C BY FRI
EVENING AND AS LOW AS -5C ON SAT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT RISE ABOVE
50 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS ON SAT...WITH THE WARMER LOCATIONS JUST
BARELY GETTING ABOVE 50 DEGREES. WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS UNCERTAIN DUE
TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL FEATURES...BUT LAKE EFFECT RAIN /AND MAYBE SOME SNOW
FLAKES...BUT NO ACCUMULATING SNOW/ NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR IS MORE
CERTAIN JUST DUE TO THE COLD AIRMASS AND N TO NW LOW LEVEL WINDS.
SUN DOES LOOK DRIER AND WARMER...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT OF LIGHT
PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT THAT HAS PASSED...CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER. WHILE KCMX SHOULD SEE LOW MVFR CIGS TODAY WITH
OCNL IFR THIS MORNING...BETTER UPSLOPE FLOW AT KIWD WILL LIKELY KEEP
THAT TERMINAL UNDER IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AFTN. MAY SEE SOME LIFR AT
KIWD AS WELL. AT KSAW...POST FRONTAL BAND OF -SHRA WILL GIVE WAY TO
UPSLOPE -SHRA/-DZ BY LATE MORNING. UPSLOPE FLOW AT KSAW WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THRU THE MORNING WITH ONLY
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO IFR THIS AFTN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE QUITE
PERSISTENT INTO TONIGHT...RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS. ITS POSSIBLE IFR
CIGS COULD LINGER THRU TONIGHT AT KSAW DUE TO BETTER UPSLOPE FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
IN THE WAKE OF A SHARP COLD FRONT PASSING THRU THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...N TO NE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-30KT OVER MUCH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THAT RANGE TODAY...
BUT THERE WILL BE SOME DIMINISHING OF WINDS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
THIS AFTN AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH COLD FRONT MOVING FARTHER
FROM THE AREA. DURING THE MORNING...THERE MAY BE A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS OVER NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES OVER NRN ONTARIO MOVES CLOSER. WINDS UNDER 20KT
WILL BE THE RULE TUE THRU THU. HOWEVER...AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SOME ON WED BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER ON WED...MAINLY
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. FRI INTO SAT...COLDER AIR SWEEPING INTO THE
UPPER LAKES BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO
STRENGTHENING NW WINDS AND POTENTIALLY GALES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
658 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
ITS BACK TO REALITY THIS MORNING IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT.
AFTER A BEAUTIFUL DAY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S...WHICH BY THE
WAY WAS THE FOURTH DAY IN A ROW WITH HIGHS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MORE IN THE 55 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FA. THIS WILL RESULT IN TODAY BEING
20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE HIGHS ON SUNDAY.
THE COOL DOWN TODAY IS THE RESULT OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
STRETCHED FROM NEAR KEAU TO FSD EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT.
BANDS OF SHOWERS EXIST TO THE REAR OF THE FRONT AND STRETCH FROM FAR
NORTHERN WI TO NEAR BIS. THE SHOWERS ARE WELL DEFINED BY A BAND OF
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE ARW/NMM WRFS AS WELL AS THE HRRR ARE
LAGGING BY A FEW HOURS ON THE SOUTHEAST PROPAGATION OF THE SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. ONE EXCEPTION IS THE HOPWRF...WHICH HAS HANDLED
THE OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT MUCH BETTER. THEREFORE...THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING WAS MODELED TOWARDS THE HOPWRF. THIS
BRINGS SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH CENTRAL MN...THE TWIN CITIES
METRO AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL WI. THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH HEADING
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING DIMINISH.
RATHER EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TWIN
CITIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH EVEN THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S IN OUR NE CWA
AROUND RICE LAKE AND LADYSMITH TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
THE WORK WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE SCALE THROUGH THAT WILL
BE WORKING ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM...BRINGING WITH IT ENHANCED CHANCES
FOR PRECIP TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AND
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...WE WILL GET INTO
NW FLOW THAT WILL FEATURE US GETTING INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF A
CLIPPER ON SUNDAY.
FOR THE WORK WEEK SYSTEM...THERE A 3 WAVES OF INTEREST THAT WILL
IMPACT THE MPX AREA AS THE MEAN THROUGH WORKS THROUGH. THE FIRST
WAVE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AND WILL WORK ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AS A COMPACT NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH ON TUESDAY. WAVE TWO WILL BE A MORE SUBTLE FEATURE
COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY THAT WILL WORK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THE FINAL SHORT WAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA
WILL COME DOWN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MODEL AGREEMENT IS HIGH WITH THE FIRST WAVE. WAVE TWO STILL HAS
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR WEST IT WILL TRACK...WITH
DISCREPANCIES IN THE FINAL WAVE DEALING WITH HOW STRONG IT WILL BE.
ALTHOUGH THE FIRST WAVE WILL BE PASSING US BY TO THE WEST...IT WILL
SEND A COLD FRONT INTO MN TUESDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS FROM
DETERMINISTIC...PROBABILISTIC...TO CONVECTIVE ALLOWING SHOW A BAND
OF SHOWERS/STORMS WORKING ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN WRN MN AND EVENTUALLY ENDING UP OVER IN WRN WI BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. USED THE SREF TO TIME A N-S ORIENTED BAND OF
LIKELIES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH THE NIGHT. FROM
THE QPF PERSPECTIVE...INSTABILITY LOOKS PRETTY LIMITED WITH THE
BAND...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY EXCESSIVE RAIN RATES...WITH A GENERAL
QUARTER TO HALF INCH LOOKING LIKELY WITH THIS BAND OF SHOWERS. THE
BIGGER QUESTION WITH THIS FIRST WAVE...IS WHERE DOES THE COLD FRONT
END UP. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE TO THE WEST OF THE MPX
AREA...THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOWING DOWN AS IT WORKS ACROSS MN AS THE
UPPER FORCING DRIVING IT INITIALLY HEADS UP THROUGH MANITOBA. BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THIS FRONT ONLY LOOKS TO BE ABOUT HALF WAY
ACROSS MN.
THIS FRONT AND ITS POSITION WILL BE OF IMPORTANCE FOR WAVE TWO
COMING UP FROM THE SW WED AFTERNOON...AS A HEALTHY SLUG OF RAIN
LOOKS TO TRAVEL NORTH ALONG THE FRONT AS THE UPPER WAVE LEADS TO AN
ENHANCEMENT IN THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS
EVENING...THE GEM/GFS KEPT THE BULK OF THE SECOND WAVES PRECIP
ENTIRELY EAST OF THE MPX CWA...THE ECMWF WAS BRINGING THE CORE OF
THE PRECIP RIGHT UP I-35...WHILE THE NAM WAS IN BETWEEN...THOUGH
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF THAN THE GEM/GFS. GIVEN THE LOCATIONAL
DISCREPANCIES...HAVE HELD POPS DOWN IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE EAST. A BLEND OF THE NAM/ECMWF FOR
QPF WOULD SAY ANOTHER GOOD HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WOULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE FROM MANKATO UP THROUGH THE WRN TWIN CITIES
METRO AND UP INTO DULUTH. BESIDE WHERE THE PRECIP END UP...THERE ARE
ALSO DISCREPANCIES WITH HOW QUICKLY THIS PRECIP EXITS THE
AREA...WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING WRN WI WET RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. NOT TO IGNORE THE WEST SIDE OF THE CWA...DID START REMOVING
POPS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA AS
PRECIP THIS PERIOD WILL BE ALONG/EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
BE WELL EAST OF WRN MN.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE THE MPX AREA BRIEFLY DRY OUT AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...BUT A STRONG WAVE DROPPING
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN INTO CENTRAL MN
BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING IN THE
EAST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE WE FINALLY DRY OUT FOR GOOD FRIDAY NIGHT AS
WE GET WEST OF THE UPPER TROUGH. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS COOL AND BRISK
WITH STRONG NW WINDS...CLOUDS AND HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S CERTAINLY
LIVING UP TO WHAT IS PROBABLY MOST PEOPLES PERCEPTION OF WHAT
OCTOBER IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY IS LIKE.
FOR THE WEEKEND...SFC RIDGING...BRINGING WITH IT CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN A VERY CHILLY START TO SATURDAY...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS GETTING INTO THE 30S. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO DECIDE THIS
WEEK HOW FAR NORTH INTO THE CWA FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL STILL BE
NECESSARY THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL QUICKLY SEE TEMPERATURES START TO
REBOUND SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE GET INTO THE WAA SIDE OF A CLIPPER THAT
WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS NRN MN SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS DRY...COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT WORKING THROUGH. AT
ANY RATE...ANY PRECIP LOOKS LIGHT AND SHORT LIVED AND WE CURRENTLY
LOOK TO HAVE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR SEEING SOME FAST TIMES RUN
DURING THE TWIN CITIES MARATHON ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS COVER THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS TO THE REAR OF
THE FRONT WILL CAUSE TEMPORARY MVFR VSBYS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER ONTARIO WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL AID IN BREAKING UP THE LOW CEILINGS DURING THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THIS DUE TO THE TIME OF YEAR
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. IF THE CLEARING DOES OCCUR...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR FOG
AND LIFR/IFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST
ON THIS FROM KRWF TO KAXN AND ALSO AT KEAU. NE WINDS TODAY 08-12
KNOTS BECOMING ESE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.
KMSP...EXPECT THE CEILING TO MEANDER ABOVE AND BELOW 010 THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH IN THE 14Z-16Z TIME
FRAME. CEILINGS SHOULD RISE ABOVE 017 BY THE START OF THE
AFTERNOON AND VFR BY THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT
MVFR OR LOWER CIGS MAY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SCT012
INDICATED AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. MVFR/SHRA LIKELY LATE TUE NIGHT. WINDS E-SE 10-15 KTS.
WED...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS S-SE 10-15 KTS.
THU...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR IN SHRA. WINDS W-NW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1030 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL
STAY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING
FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA
TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY MID
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...12Z AREA RAOBS CONFIRM RUC ANALYSIS OF A
LARGE NE TO SW GRADIENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER...RANGING FROM
1.2 TO 2.2 FROM MHX TO CHS. AS SUCH IT MAY BE HARD TO GET MEASURABLE
RAINFALL INTO THE CAPE FEAR REGION AND POPS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED.
NON-MEASURABLE DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES APPEAR MORE LIKELY. DESPITE THE
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND NE WINDS THE TEMPERATURE CONTINUES
TO CLAW ITS WAY SLOWLY UPWARD AND AN EARLIER TEMPTATION TO LOWER
HIGH TEMP FCST HAS BEEN TABLED. NO OTHER CHANGES THAN TO
AFOREMENTIONED POPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUES WITH A DEEP N-NW
FLOW OF DRY AIR AS RIDGE BUILDS UP THE EAST COAST. PCP WATER
VALUES DROP OFF QUICKLY FROM AROUND 1.5 INCHES TUES MORNING DOWN
TO LESS THAN AN INCH BY TUES NIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA BY TUES AFTN AND RUNNING
THROUGH WED.
MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND SUNNY SKIES WILL YIELD TEMPS UP AROUND
80 ON TUES. DRIER AIR IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS DOWN CLOSE TO
60 AND BELOW OVER INLAND AREAS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO DROP
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS ON WED WILL WARM INTO THE
80S WITH THE AID OF A MORE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH
BRIGHT SUNSHINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD UP THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AT THE SURFACE. PLENTY
OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS WILL PRODUCE
ANOTHER MAINLY SUNNY DAY. SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY MAY PRODUCE SOME AFTN CU BUT OVERALL EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH TEMPS REACHING UP AROUND 80.
BY FRI...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE
FLOW. AS THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE SLIPS EAST A TROUGH BEGINS TO
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THIS TROUGH
DIGS DOWN IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
LATE FRI INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE FLOW REMAINS MORE WESTERLY AND
THEREFORE DOES NOT PULL UP MUCH IN THE WAY OF GULF MOISTURE SO
EXPECT FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED. THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF AREA AND
THEREFORE SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT A WARM AND SUNNY START TO FRIDAY AND
EXPECT PCP TO REMAIN ON THE LOW END WITH BEST CHC FRI EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
SATURDAY THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH AS IT
SHIFTS EAST. MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LEAVING A VERY BROAD TROUGH WITH
MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW BY SUNDAY. A DEEP COOLER NW FLOW SHOULD
PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH READINGS IN THE
MID 70S FOR HIGHS AND LOW TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN A WHILE IN A VERY DRY AIR MASS WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS
DOWN IN THE 50S. OVERALL EXPECT MORE FALL LIKE WEATHER FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...TRICKY FORECAST TODAY. PRECIPITATION TRYING TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD...HOWEVER TIME HEIGHT AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A LOT OF
THE PRECIP IS COMING OUT OF A MID CLOUD CEILING...KEEPING PRECIP
QUITE LIGHT. CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO LOWER...BUT SHOULD NONETHELESS
BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH MVFR EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AT MOST
LOCATIONS. THE NAM HAS BEEN TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH REGARD TO CEILINGS
FOR DAYS NOW...IF NOT WEEKS. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE NAM`S IFR CEILINGS
FOR NOW...BUT MAY INTRODUCE THEM THIS EVENING. CONTINUED NORTHEAST
FLOW TODAY...FAIRLY LIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...SHUTTING OFF THE PRECIP.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...N TO NE GRADIENT WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH. FURTHER OUT TO SEA THE
GRADIENT IS QUITE WEAK SO SEAS GENERALLY COMPRISED OF SHORTER PERIOD
WIND CHOP IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY AND
PERSISTING THROUGH TONIGHT UNTIL DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE PULLS
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. N TO NE WIND...GENERALLY AROUND 10
KTS... WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THE WIND WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS AWAY FROM THE COAST DURING THE DAY...THEN
15 TO 20 KTS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
EVOLVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT
INITIALLY THEN BUILDING TO 4 FT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE BACK END OF
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE MOVING FARTHER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH TUES...WILL INCREASE UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS AS GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. SEAS WILL INCREASE
UP TO 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH TUES BUT WILL COME BACK DOWN TO 2 TO 3 FT
BY WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THURS AND
SHIFT OFF SHORE BY FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH THURS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BY FRI AND INCREASING UP
TO 15 KTS BY FRI AFTN AS FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. SEAS DOWN TO 2 TO 3
FT ON THURS WILL INCREASE BACK UP TO 3 TO 4 FT WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WITH THE STRONGER WINDS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
738 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF COAST WILL TRACK TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY THIS EVENING...THEN OUT TO SEA WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS OUR AREA. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
ARRIVES AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT MONDAY...
TWO AREAS OF RAINFALL THIS MORNING...ONE FROM THE NC TRIAD...NE
INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VA...AND ANOTHER FROM TRI CITIES NORTHEAST
INTO SE WV. LATEST HRRR HAS DECENT HANDLE ON THIS AND WEAKENS THE
WRN LINE LATER THIS MORNING...WHILE MAINTAINING AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. STILL LOW QPF AMOUNTS THOUGH HAVE
UPPED POPS GIVEN THAT SOME AREAS WILL AT LEAST SEE A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO AS MUCH AS QUARTER INCH. OTHERWISE...THINK THE
FORECAST IS IN LINE BUT THINK DRYING MAY TAKE PLACE SOONER AS
UPPER SHORTWAVE IS NOW OVER NE KY AND SHOULD SLIDE ACROSS THE MTNS
BY 18Z TODAY...ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALLOW FOR SOME
LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE TN VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE MAIN NOSE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE TO GET SHOVED EAST. APPEARS THE SOUTHEAST CWA WILL
BE MORE IN LINE TO GET A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN OR SO COMPARED TO
THE NW CWA...ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE MTNS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE 0Z NAM/CMC SHOWING DRIER AIR ERODING CLOUD COVER IN
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN WEAK LOW IN THE LOW LVLS THE
MOISTURE MAY BE HARDER TO SCOUR OUT...WITH LINGERING STRATOCU
HANGING IN. NONETHELESS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE EXITS THIS EVENING
LEAVING BEHIND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN IN THE
MTNS. SOME CLEAR TO TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT LEADING TO FOG FORMATION
AS NO APPRECIABLE WINDS TO KEEP THINGS MIXED.
AS FOR TEMPS...TRICKY TODAY GIVEN EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN.
INSITU WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALTHOUGH IN A VERY WEAKENED STATE.
STILL TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND
SLIGHTLY EAST. COUNTING ON SOME LIMITED INSOLATION AND A MILD START
TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT...WITH SOME BREAKS
IN THE WEST TO ALLOW FOR LOWER 70S AS WELL ACROSS SE WV...PORTIONS
OF SW VA.
LOWS TONIGHT TO STAY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AS NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE
IN AIRMASS. LOOKING AT MOST PLACES GETTING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...
UPPER TROF CURVES OUT CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WHICH
TRACKS EASTWARD TO OFF THE ENGLAND COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW WILL PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM GULF
DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WELL OFF THE EAST COAST.
WITH SOME DRYING OF THE COLUMN AND WARMING OF THICKNESS EXPECTED
TUESDAY...THUS WENT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY FROM THE LOWER
70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. LEANED
LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT CLOSE TO THE ADJMETBC WITH READINGS
FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
AS SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH ROTATES EAST WEDNESDAY...ALLOWED FOR SOME
LIGHT POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
70 DEGREES TO THE UPPER 70S. THE BULK OF THE RICHEST MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE CENTER. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY REMAIN
ABUNDANT WITH A THETA-E RIDGE OVER THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO
LOCATED OVER THE AREA AND AS WINDS TURN TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER WEDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH...LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE ALONG
AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PLAYED LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MAY
HELP SCOUR CLOUDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE THEY
SPREAD BACK IN THURSDAY NIGHT. SHAPED HIGHS ON THURSDAY CLOSE TO
SUPERBLEND MOS FROM AROUND 70 IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE
EAST. AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT
ALLOWED FOR SOME LIGHT POPS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. MAINTAINED
CONTINUITY LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...
THE WEDGE WILL ERODE AND BREAK THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. PREFRONTAL SHOWERS WILL ENTER
THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
FRIDAY EVENING. MAJORITY OF THE RAIN /0.25/ WILL FALL OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS /0.10/ EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WE DO
EXPECTED SHOWERS TO ADVANCE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS WINDS BACK TO
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITIES ARE NOT LOOKING
STRONG...THEREFORE MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER FROM
ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODELS ARE ALSO MOVING
THIS FRONT FASTER ACROSS THE REGION...CLEARING THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A STRAY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORT WAVE PIVOT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WITH LITTLE TO NO GREAT LAKES TRAJECTORY...WE
WILL JUST CALL SATURDAY A RAIN FREE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING
BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY...AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES EAST...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HIGHS WILL
RUN 5F-10F COOLER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 728 AM EDT MONDAY...
MOST IF NOT ALL TAF SITES TO SEE AT LEAST LIGHT RAIN THIS
MORNING...ONGOING AT LYH/DAN/BLF/LWB AND PUSHING INTO BCB/ROA BY
14Z. OVERALL THINK BCB/ROA WILL NOT SEE VSBY ISSUES BUT EARLY ON
LWB/DAN COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS. CIGS STILL STAYING
VFR...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. MAJORITY OF ANY
RAINFALL SHIFTS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY 18Z ENDING AT LYH/DAN
AROUND THAT TIME FRAME.
THE ISSUE HEADING INTO TONIGHT IS MAINLY FOG AND HOW LOW VSBYS
COULD GO. PATTERN WITH LACK OF MIXING COMBINED WITH GROUND
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO FAVORABLE FOG FORMATION AND THE GFSLAMP
AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOW FOG AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
POSSIBLY ROANOKE...BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL TAKE
LYH/DAN/BLF TO IFR VSBYS BY 07-9Z TUESDAY WHILE LWB/BCB GET INTO
VLIFR IN THE SAME TIME FRAME. FOG WILL BE OCCURRING INTO THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD...BEFORE DISSIPATING IN THE 12-15Z TUESDAY TIME
FRAME.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED MOST OF TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SOME LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW COULD LEAD TO SUB VFR
CIGS/VSBYS ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH US BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SUB VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK/RCS
AVIATION...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO
SEA WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS NEXT SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH. SOUNDINGS HAVE SHOWN ALL DAY A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS. EVEN THOUGH THE
RADAR SHOWS SOME PRECIPITATION MOST OF IT WILL BE VIRGA. HOWEVER
THE RAP AND HRRR BRING IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION (UNDER .05
INCHES) THIS EVENING ACROSS DELMARVA AND SOUTH NJ. DID INCLUDE THE
THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER FOR THESE AREAS. KEPT MANY
WEATHER ELEMENTS INCLUDING LOWS NEAR THE MET/MAV. THE MAV HAS BEEN
TO DRY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALL DAY AND DID NOT INCORPORATE THIS SET
FOR DEWPOINTS. WE MAY SEE SOME CLEARING AS WELL BY SUNRISE PERHAPS
ALLOWING FOR A FEW HOUR WINDOW FOR THE FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE QUICKLY ON ITS HEALS WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL SUPPORT MAY ALLOW FOR
THE GENERATION OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON FOCUSED NW
OF PHL. FOR TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE MAV/MET
GUIDANCE SETS. ECMWF 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD YIELD TO SURFACE
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80`S FOR PHL. HOWEVER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS KEPT HIGHS IN THE 70`S ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST FROM 12 HOURS
AGO. SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD BUT AMOUNTS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE ON THE RELATIVELY LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES
FOR THE TIME PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, THEN TRENDING TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.
RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING WITH NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN. HIGHEST POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE ON MONDAY, ONCE AGAIN BRINGING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.
USE WPC GUIDANCE PREDOMINATELY FOR DAYS 4 THOUGH 7. FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO THU, USED A 50/50 BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADJUSTED GFS
MAV MOS
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
HIGH LEVEL VFR CLOUDS AOA 15,000 FEET CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE TO SOUTH. THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS OFFSHORE KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION TO A ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE, WITH ACY/MIV HAVING THE BEST CHANCE. DRY
TAFS. OVERNIGHT, SOME SCATTERED LOWER VFR CLOUDS AROUND 4,000 FEET
MAY DEVELOP. CURRENTLY IS IT MORE LIKELY THAT THE HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PREVENT THE FORMATION OF LOWER CLOUDS OR FOG, EXCEPT AT
RDG AND MIV WHICH TYPICALLY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE FOG. ANY FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z TUESDAY LEAVING SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS AOA 4,000
FEET, SO ANOTHER VFR DAY TUESDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT
RDG AND ABE AFTER THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD WHICH CURRENTLY RUNS TILL
18Z TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.
THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.
FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS THIS EVENING ARE AROUND TWO FEET ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL. TOMORROW WE WILL GRADUALLY SEE
SEAS BUILD AND WINDS INCREASE OUT OF NORTHEAST. SEAS MAY REACH FOUR
FEET TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS AS WELL.
CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THIS PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF
ON ISSUING ANY FORMAL HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS
CONDITIONS WILL JUST MEET LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS
NOT YET HIGH.
THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.
FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.
SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE,
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...GAINES/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GAINES/HEAVENER
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER
MARINE...GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
248 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
.AVIATION...
THE GULF COAST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZES CONTINUE TO PUSH
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROJECTED TO
DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN ACROSS THE
EAST COAST AREAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PERIOD.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF SITE OPF.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/
UPDATE...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW UP TO 800MB...AND THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST STATES. AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH PWATS INCREASING FROM 1.8 INCHES THIS MORNING TO
2.2-2.4 INCHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL
PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ALONG IT OR PUSH INTO THE BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST. STORMS WILL THEN
PUSH SLOWLY TOWARDS THE EAST COAST IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF RUNS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY...AND THE LATEST
RUNS ARE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE STORMS MOVING EAST AND
QUICKLY INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOKS
TO BE ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. BUMPED UP POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THE EAST COAST
METROS AND ADDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING TO THE ZFP.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN DISSIPATE OVER HEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK-WEEK. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MARKED PATTERN SHIFT INITIATES TODAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE SE CONUS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURES AXIS
CROSSING MS/AL EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL CROSS GA AND N FL
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOPRES IS JUST
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERNMOST GULF...AND IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTH AND MOVE ENE NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER TODAY...WITH COLD
FRONT TRAILING TO THE WSW BEHIND IT. ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL PUSH
COPIOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH AND EASTERN FROM THE GULF ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA. EXPECT PLENTY OF CONVECTION TO
FIRE AHEAD OF THE LOPRES AND FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF CWA.
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...STEERING FLOW ALOFT HAS ALREADY TURNED
SW...AND WILL CONTINUE TRANSITIONING TO THAT DIRECTION AT LOWER
LEVELS TODAY. ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL SERVE AS FOCUS OF TSTM
INITIATION IN SOFLA...PROVIDING THE CONVERGENCE TO COMBINE WITH
THE ASCENT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH.
TSTMS SHOULD FORM OVER THE INTERIOR REGION /WEST OF SUBURBS/.
HOWEVER...THE SW WINDS ALOFT WILL CAUSE STORMS TO PROPAGATE BACK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...LEAVING HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN METRO AREAS.
EQUILIBRIUM/STORM TOP OUTFLOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NORTHERLY...ALSO
CANT RULE OUT SEA- BREEZE CONVECTION OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
SPREADING SOUTH INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY. STORMS WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCERS AND SLOW-MOVING. ANYWHERE WHERE A STORM
STALLS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE COUNTY...ESPECIALLY OVER PALM BEACH
COUNTY...COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT /PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS LAKE OKEECHOBEE/ AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE...WHICH WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND
PROGRESS. THUS...EAST COAST AND NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE
HAVE HIGHEST POPS.
IN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM...APPROACHING 90F DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND REMAINING
IN 70S OVERNIGHT. KFLL TIED DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMP
SATURDAY WITH 82F...AND HAS BROKEN SUNDAYS RECORD WITH 81F. IF AIR
DOESNT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY RAIN COOLED THERE TODAY...ANOTHER
RECORD MAY BE BROKEN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE FORECAST WITH L/V SURFACE
WIND AT ALL TERMINALS. A FEW SMALL SHRA ARE NOTED OVER THE
ATLANTIC BUT TOO FEW TO EVEN MENTION VCSH IN ANY OF THE TAFS.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH STORM MOTION TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE QUESTION IS
HOW FAST WILL THIS STEERING FLOW BECOME ESTABLISHED. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BUT WINDS ALOFT TO STEER THE STORMS WILL
NOT BE NECESSARILY STRONG SO MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE LEFT VCTS IN THE FORECAST BUT MAY
NEED TO ADD TEMPO GROUPS WITH LATER UPDATES IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.
MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE WATERS...VEERING TO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL
OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AWAY
FROM CONVECTION...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 74 90 74 / 80 60 60 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 77 91 77 / 70 50 60 20
MIAMI 90 76 91 77 / 70 40 50 10
NAPLES 88 76 90 76 / 40 20 40 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...30/KOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
137 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
FORECAST STILL PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK FOR THE DAY. SKIES HAVE BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AS A
BROAD FIELD OF CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE FORMED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SOME SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN FALLING FROM
SOME OF THESE CLOUDS. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO WE COULD SEE ISOLATED
TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS POP UP FROM TIME TO TIME AS THE WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVES PAST. ANY EXISTING SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AFTER
SUNSET...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT.
NO ZONE UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF MORNING FOG AND
AFTERNOON WORDING. OVERALL THE FORECAST STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK
SO FAR TODAY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN
POPPING UP ALONG THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS SO FAR THIS
MORNING. BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES FORMING EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. THEREFORE WILL LET THE FORECAST
RIDE AS IS CONCERNING THIS AFTERNOONS PRECIPITATION CHANCE AND AREAL
COVERAGE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 802 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
REFRESHED GRIDS TO REFLECT EARLY MORNING OBS BLENDING INTO THE LATE
MORNING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
SHOWERS FALLING FROM A HIGH CLOUD BASE WERE NEAR THE KY/VA BORDER
OVERNIGHT. THIS REGIME IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AFTER A LULL...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR
MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS HEATING LEADS TO SHALLOW
INSTABILITY. IT SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 650 MB. THIS LEVEL IS TOO
WARM FOR GLACIATION OF CLOUD TOPS...BUT ALLOWS FOR A DEEP ENOUGH
CLOUD TO PERHAPS GET SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. THESE WILL DIE
OUT WITH LOSS OF HEATING MONDAY EVENING. DURING THE NIGHT...SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WHILE SLIGHT
WARMING OCCURS IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH LITTLE OR NO CU DEVELOPMENT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
MODELS ARE STARTING TO WAVER A BIT WITH AN EXPECTED COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY...BUT OVERALL STILL IN AGREEMENT ON WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE ALSO
DIVERGING ON POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS HEADING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THUS...WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IS DEGRADED AROUND THE TIMING OF THE RAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK...THEN EXACTLY HOW COLD/CLOUDY IT WILL END UP THIS
WEEKEND.
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...SETTING UP
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A SHARP MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE...COMBINED WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD
PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. WHILE INSTABILITY
IS WEAK...FORCING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
PRODUCE A LIGHTNING STRIKE AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00Z ECMWF SUPPORTS
THE 12Z RUN WITH A FASTER SYSTEM...BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN FASTER
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH EVERYTHING EXITING EARLIER ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS HAS ALSO REMAINED SUPPORTIVE OF A SLOWER
SYSTEM...WITH MORE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ON FRIDAY. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN A LONGER PERIOD OF HIGHER POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
UNCERTAINTY. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE DECENT LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.
AS THE INITIAL FRONT DEPARTS...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SURGE OF MUCH COLDER WEATHER INTO THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A 500MB VORT MAX PUSHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THE 00Z ECMWF CUTS OFF THIS SYSTEM...WITH A MUCH SHARPER TROUGH
PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
SUPPORT MORE CLOUDS AND MUCH COOLER READINGS. MEANWHILE...THE GFS
DOES NOT CUT OFF THIS SYSTEM...AND IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE TROUGH.
GIVEN WE ARE HEADING INTO THE COLD SEASON...TENDENCY IS TO WANT TO
SUPPORT THE SHARPER TROUGH SEEN IN THE ECMWF AS THE PATTERN WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THUS...STAYING WELL BELOW
GUIDANCE ON HIGHS AND LOWS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IF
THINGS PLAY OUT AS THE ECMWF SUPPORTS...WE MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 60
ON SATURDAY WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.
AT THIS TIME...REGARDLESS WHICH SOLUTIONS PLAYS OUT...FROST APPEARS
UNLIKELY AS THE COLDER ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT MORE CLOUD COVER...AND
THE GFS SIMPLY WOULD NOT BE COLD ENOUGH. IN FACT... THE ECMWF MAY
SUPPORT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AS A VORT
MAX DROPS SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. GOING TO LEAVE THINGS
DRY FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD SOME RAIN CHANCES IF THE ECMWF
GAINS SUPPORT. BY SUNDAY...WE SHOULD SEE THE AIR MASS PERHAPS START
TO MODIFY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. A BROAD FIELD OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS CLOUDS HAS FORMED THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY ALSO
REVEALS THAT A FEW VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES HAVE ALSO
POPPED UP. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINING AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE SUN HEATS THINGS UP. THE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
QUICKLY AND BE GONE JUST AFTER SUN SET. AREAS OF MOSTLY VALLEY FOG
CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE DENSEST FOG. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...IT IS LIKELY THAT
ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT SYM WILL SEE DENSE FOG BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z
TOMORROW. THE FOG SHOULD BE GONE BY BETWEEN 10 AND 1030 AM ON TUESDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
236 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
TODAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TROUGH OF LO PRES SFC-ALOFT ENTERING RGN ATTM. -RA SPREADING NNE
INTO CNTRL VA RIGHT NOW...AND AS TROUGH SLIDES E...-RA XPCD TO
CONT/SPREAD E INTO THIS AFTN. MNLY FOLLOWED 11Z/29 RUC W/ PCPN
MOVEMENT INTO THIS AFTN...AND RAISED POPS MOST ERN PLACES (TO
40-60%). TEMPS TRICKY DUE TO CLDS AND LGT PCPN...MAY NEED FURTHER
ADJUSTMENT (DOWN) IN NEXT COUPLE/FEW HRS SHOULD TRENDS CONT. QPF
MNLY AOB 1/10TH INCH.
BY LT THIS AFTN...SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST REGION WILL
SLOWLY PUSH ENE AND ELONGATE INTO THE GULF STREAM ATLC WATERS OFF
THE SE COAST. THIS AREA WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND WILL ACT TO LIMIT QPF ACRS THE
MID ATLC AND AREAS FARTHER N. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS ACRS THE
SRN/ERN PORTIONS OF THE FA INTO EARLY EVE...WHILE THE AM PRECIP
AREAS OF THE PIEDMONT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS EVENING...WILL CONFINE HIGHEST CHC POPS TO THE SE...ONLY 20%
OR LESS FARTHER NW...CLEARING OVERNIGHT FROM NW TO SE WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S NW TO THE LWR 60S SE.
FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN NC)...AND A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH
FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA. HAVE POPS BLO 14% MOST
PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL
NE NC (IN THE EARLY MRNG). XPCG PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS N AND
CNTRL...TO PARTLY TO MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.
UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ PSBL BKN CLDNS AND ONLY
SLGT CHC POPS (MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY...W/
HI TEMPS FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT DIGGING A POTENT UPPER LOW
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
HEADS FOR NEW ENGLAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND
FOR DRY WX. HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
70S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 60S MAY BE MORE PROMINENT BY NEXT SUNDAY. LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THRU FRI NIGHT...THEN COOLING INTO THE 40S
TO MID 50S NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR THE TAF SITES
AS IT DOES SO. CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING RAIN IS LOWEST FOR KORF
SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED PREDOMINATE -RA THERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. THE WEAK TROF IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST
BETWEEN 08Z-13Z TUES WITH DRY WX RETURNING IN ITS WAKE. MAY SEE SOME
IFR FOG DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK.
DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT...WILL
NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH
MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU TUE NGT. A TROF OF LO PRES
WILL MOVE ACRS THE WTRS AND OUT TO SEA THIS EVENG THRU TUE MORNG.
WINDS WILL BECOME NW OR N ARND 10 KT OR LESS TODAY...N ARND 10 KT OR
LESS TNGT...THEN NE ARND 10 KT OR LESS TUE. A LO PRES SYSTEM WILL
THEN SWING THRU THE NE U.S. AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NGT AND WED...BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST BY THU MORNG. AS A RESULT...NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE A BIT FOR LATE TUE NGT THRU WED NGT...BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING DURING THU. SEAS COULD REACH 4 TO 5 FT ON THE CSTL WTRS
BY WED MORNG...THEN WILL SUBSIDE LATE THU/THU NGT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...TMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
113 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPPING
SE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND NRN MN. AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED SHARP COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM SCNTRL MN THRU WI AND THEN ACROSS SCNTRL AND ERN
UPPER MI. IT APPEARS A WEAK SFC WAVE MAY BE LOCATED ALONG THE TROF
IN UPPER MI. AS EXPECTED...NEARLY ALL PCPN IS OCCURRING ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE A NICE RIBBON OF LOW-MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORCING IS LOCATED UNDERNEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE OF
UPPER JET.
INHERITED FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION TODAY.
WELL-DEFINED UPPER JET STREAK BEGINS TO LOSE DEFINITION TODAY.
THUS...UPPER JET FORCING AND CORRESPONDING LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ALSO BEGIN TO WEAKEN. SHOULDN`T HAVE AN IMMEDIATE
IMPACT ON BAND OF PCPN PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE MAY BE
SOME TENDENCY FOR PCPN TO BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED AND LIGHTER
WITH TIME AS THE PCPN MOVES ACROSS THE SRN FCST AREA. OVERALL...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO PCPN TIMING THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. BIGGER CHANGE WAS TO
DIMINISH POPS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY AS
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER QVECTOR DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES.
CYCLONIC FLOW/ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LAKE-850MB DELTA T
NEARING THE MARGINAL THRESHOLD FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN SHOULD WORK TO
HOLD IN SOME -RA/-SHRA NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NCNTRL UPPER
MI WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE BEST. WITH CAA AND CLOUD COVER LIKELY
HOLDING TOUGH THRU THE DAY...TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE
40S ACROSS THE W AND NCNTRL AND SHOULD SLOWLY FALL FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ELSEWHERE.
ANY LINGERING PCPN (-SHRA/-DZ) MAINLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL END
TONIGHT AS GRADUALLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA AND AS
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS MODERATES...ENDING ANY LAKE COMPONENT TO PCPN.
TEMPS POSE A CHALLENGE AS CLOUD COVER WILL DICTATE HOW LOW TEMPS
FALL. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDINESS WILL
LINGER TONIGHT. BEST CHC FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...PROBABLY LATE
IN THE NIGHT...WILL BE OVER THE W WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ANTICYCLONIC OVERNIGHT. TEMPS IN THAT AREA MAY FALL TOWARD
FREEZING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST STARTING 12Z TUE LOOKS PRETTY QUIET
AS A SHARP UPPER RIDGE AND SFC RIDGE PASS THROUGH THE CWA. THE
AIRMASS WARMS A BIT ON TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN...WITH 850MB
TEMPS INCREASING FROM 7-11C AT 12Z TUE TO 8-14C AT 00Z WED. WILL NOT
SEE FULL SFC WARMING POTENTIAL OF THE AIRMASS DUE TO A CLOUDY START
TO THE DAY AND SLOW CLEARING...BUT HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN
THE 50S.
W OF THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSITING THE REGION IS A AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROUGH COVERING THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE E...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD
TO WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT MOVING IN TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
SET TO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. THIS LEADS TO RAIN MOVING
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA FRI MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...EVENTUALLY COVERING THE ERN CWA ON THU. THE RAIN MAY HAVE
SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...BUT THAT IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. EVEN SO...MODEL
AGREEMENT DOES ALLOW FOR ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO HAVE LIKELY POPS
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE 8-14C 850MB
TEMPS WILL REMAIN THROUGH WED...ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO BE IN THE 60S.
HIGH FOR THU WILL BE SIMILAR SINCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN
THE DAY AND IS RELATIVELY WEAK.
REAL SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE LONG TERM IS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS GETS REINFORCED
BY ENERGY MOVING OUT OF CANADA. THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP AND MOVES
INTO THE CWA LATE THU NIGHT INTO SAT...BEFORE MOVING E BY SUN. WHILE
MODELS DO AGREE WELL ON THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN...THERE ARE MANY
UNCERTAINTIES ON A SMALLER SCALE WITH EMBEDDED ENERGY AND
CYCLOGENESIS/SFC FEATURE DEVELOPMENT. CAN SAY WITH GOOD CERTAINTY
THAT IT WILL BE COLDER AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO BELOW 2C BY FRI
EVENING AND AS LOW AS -5C ON SAT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT RISE ABOVE
50 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS ON SAT...WITH THE WARMER LOCATIONS JUST
BARELY GETTING ABOVE 50 DEGREES. WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS UNCERTAIN DUE
TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL FEATURES...BUT LAKE EFFECT RAIN /AND MAYBE SOME SNOW
FLAKES...BUT NO ACCUMULATING SNOW/ NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR IS MORE
CERTAIN JUST DUE TO THE COLD AIRMASS AND N TO NW LOW LEVEL WINDS.
SUN DOES LOOK DRIER AND WARMER...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT OF LIGHT
PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER AND WILL CONTINUE TO
CAUSE LOW CLOUDS AT ALL TERMINALS. AT KIWD...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CAUSE
MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. KCMX WILL HAVE IFR CIGS AND VIS WITH
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON. AT KSAW...UPSLOPE -DZ WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE PERSISTENT INTO TUE MORNING...RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS AT ALL
SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
IN THE WAKE OF A SHARP COLD FRONT PASSING THRU THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...N TO NE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-30KT OVER MUCH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THAT RANGE TODAY...
BUT THERE WILL BE SOME DIMINISHING OF WINDS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
THIS AFTN AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH COLD FRONT MOVING FARTHER
FROM THE AREA. DURING THE MORNING...THERE MAY BE A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS OVER NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES OVER NRN ONTARIO MOVES CLOSER. WINDS UNDER 20KT
WILL BE THE RULE TUE THRU THU. HOWEVER...AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SOME ON WED BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER ON WED...MAINLY
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. FRI INTO SAT...COLDER AIR SWEEPING INTO THE
UPPER LAKES BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO
STRENGTHENING NW WINDS AND POTENTIALLY GALES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1225 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
ITS BACK TO REALITY THIS MORNING IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT.
AFTER A BEAUTIFUL DAY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S...WHICH BY THE
WAY WAS THE FOURTH DAY IN A ROW WITH HIGHS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MORE IN THE 55 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FA. THIS WILL RESULT IN TODAY BEING
20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE HIGHS ON SUNDAY.
THE COOL DOWN TODAY IS THE RESULT OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
STRETCHED FROM NEAR KEAU TO FSD EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT.
BANDS OF SHOWERS EXIST TO THE REAR OF THE FRONT AND STRETCH FROM FAR
NORTHERN WI TO NEAR BIS. THE SHOWERS ARE WELL DEFINED BY A BAND OF
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE ARW/NMM WRFS AS WELL AS THE HRRR ARE
LAGGING BY A FEW HOURS ON THE SOUTHEAST PROPAGATION OF THE SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. ONE EXCEPTION IS THE HOPWRF...WHICH HAS HANDLED
THE OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT MUCH BETTER. THEREFORE...THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING WAS MODELED TOWARDS THE HOPWRF. THIS
BRINGS SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH CENTRAL MN...THE TWIN CITIES
METRO AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL WI. THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH HEADING
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING DIMINISH.
RATHER EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TWIN
CITIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH EVEN THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S IN OUR NE CWA
AROUND RICE LAKE AND LADYSMITH TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
THE WORK WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE SCALE THROUGH THAT WILL
BE WORKING ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM...BRINGING WITH IT ENHANCED CHANCES
FOR PRECIP TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AND
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...WE WILL GET INTO
NW FLOW THAT WILL FEATURE US GETTING INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF A
CLIPPER ON SUNDAY.
FOR THE WORK WEEK SYSTEM...THERE A 3 WAVES OF INTEREST THAT WILL
IMPACT THE MPX AREA AS THE MEAN THROUGH WORKS THROUGH. THE FIRST
WAVE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AND WILL WORK ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AS A COMPACT NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH ON TUESDAY. WAVE TWO WILL BE A MORE SUBTLE FEATURE
COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY THAT WILL WORK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THE FINAL SHORT WAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA
WILL COME DOWN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MODEL AGREEMENT IS HIGH WITH THE FIRST WAVE. WAVE TWO STILL HAS
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR WEST IT WILL TRACK...WITH
DISCREPANCIES IN THE FINAL WAVE DEALING WITH HOW STRONG IT WILL BE.
ALTHOUGH THE FIRST WAVE WILL BE PASSING US BY TO THE WEST...IT WILL
SEND A COLD FRONT INTO MN TUESDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS FROM
DETERMINISTIC...PROBABILISTIC...TO CONVECTIVE ALLOWING SHOW A BAND
OF SHOWERS/STORMS WORKING ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN WRN MN AND EVENTUALLY ENDING UP OVER IN WRN WI BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. USED THE SREF TO TIME A N-S ORIENTED BAND OF
LIKELIES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH THE NIGHT. FROM
THE QPF PERSPECTIVE...INSTABILITY LOOKS PRETTY LIMITED WITH THE
BAND...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY EXCESSIVE RAIN RATES...WITH A GENERAL
QUARTER TO HALF INCH LOOKING LIKELY WITH THIS BAND OF SHOWERS. THE
BIGGER QUESTION WITH THIS FIRST WAVE...IS WHERE DOES THE COLD FRONT
END UP. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE TO THE WEST OF THE MPX
AREA...THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOWING DOWN AS IT WORKS ACROSS MN AS THE
UPPER FORCING DRIVING IT INITIALLY HEADS UP THROUGH MANITOBA. BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THIS FRONT ONLY LOOKS TO BE ABOUT HALF WAY
ACROSS MN.
THIS FRONT AND ITS POSITION WILL BE OF IMPORTANCE FOR WAVE TWO
COMING UP FROM THE SW WED AFTERNOON...AS A HEALTHY SLUG OF RAIN
LOOKS TO TRAVEL NORTH ALONG THE FRONT AS THE UPPER WAVE LEADS TO AN
ENHANCEMENT IN THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS
EVENING...THE GEM/GFS KEPT THE BULK OF THE SECOND WAVES PRECIP
ENTIRELY EAST OF THE MPX CWA...THE ECMWF WAS BRINGING THE CORE OF
THE PRECIP RIGHT UP I-35...WHILE THE NAM WAS IN BETWEEN...THOUGH
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF THAN THE GEM/GFS. GIVEN THE LOCATIONAL
DISCREPANCIES...HAVE HELD POPS DOWN IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE EAST. A BLEND OF THE NAM/ECMWF FOR
QPF WOULD SAY ANOTHER GOOD HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WOULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE FROM MANKATO UP THROUGH THE WRN TWIN CITIES
METRO AND UP INTO DULUTH. BESIDE WHERE THE PRECIP END UP...THERE ARE
ALSO DISCREPANCIES WITH HOW QUICKLY THIS PRECIP EXITS THE
AREA...WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING WRN WI WET RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. NOT TO IGNORE THE WEST SIDE OF THE CWA...DID START REMOVING
POPS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA AS
PRECIP THIS PERIOD WILL BE ALONG/EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
BE WELL EAST OF WRN MN.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE THE MPX AREA BRIEFLY DRY OUT AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...BUT A STRONG WAVE DROPPING
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN INTO CENTRAL MN
BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING IN THE
EAST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE WE FINALLY DRY OUT FOR GOOD FRIDAY NIGHT AS
WE GET WEST OF THE UPPER TROUGH. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS COOL AND BRISK
WITH STRONG NW WINDS...CLOUDS AND HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S CERTAINLY
LIVING UP TO WHAT IS PROBABLY MOST PEOPLES PERCEPTION OF WHAT
OCTOBER IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY IS LIKE.
FOR THE WEEKEND...SFC RIDGING...BRINGING WITH IT CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN A VERY CHILLY START TO SATURDAY...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS GETTING INTO THE 30S. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO DECIDE THIS
WEEK HOW FAR NORTH INTO THE CWA FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL STILL BE
NECESSARY THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL QUICKLY SEE TEMPERATURES START TO
REBOUND SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE GET INTO THE WAA SIDE OF A CLIPPER THAT
WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS NRN MN SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS DRY...COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT WORKING THROUGH. AT
ANY RATE...ANY PRECIP LOOKS LIGHT AND SHORT LIVED AND WE CURRENTLY
LOOK TO HAVE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR SEEING SOME FAST TIMES RUN
DURING THE TWIN CITIES MARATHON ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
LOW CONFIDENCE CIG FORECAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CAA CONTINUING SHOULD PRECLUDE RAPID CLEARING. WILL
TRY AND SCATTER CLOUDS OUT AFTER 23Z MOST LOCATIONS IN THE EAST.
FARTHER WEST A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC. THERE IS EROSION GOING ON
TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT DONT KNOW HOW EXTENSIVE THIS WILL BE
OVERNIGHT. IF IT DOES CLEAR OUT AROUND 00Z...THEN SOME RISK OF
STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS TREND OF BRINGING
IN THE STRATUS/FOG/LIFR TO THE WEST AND AT KEAU FOR NOW. STILL
CONFIDENCE LOW ON THIS OVERALL DEVELOPMENT. ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE THROUGH 15Z TO THE WEST WITH MORE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN DURING THE MORNING TO THE MN PORTION OF THE CWA. MAIN
RAIN THREAT HOLDS OFF AT WESTERN TAF SITES UNTIL AFTER 18Z TUE.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. A FEW GUSTS MOVING
ACROSS WITH THE COLD AIR MOVING THROUGH. THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
KMSP...LOW CONFIDENCE ON CEILING BREAKING OUT. WILL TRY AND BREAK
CEILING THROUGH 21Z...AND SCATTER IT OUT THROUGH 00Z. SOME THREAT
OF STRATUS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS
SO WILL LEAVE SCT012 FOR NOW. THEN SOME MID/HIGH LEVELS CLOUDS
MOVING IN DURING THE MORNING...WITH THE MAIN RAIN THREAT HOLDING
OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z WED.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. MVFR/SHRA LIKELY TUE NIGHT. WINDS E-SE 10-15 KTS.
WED...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS S-SE 10-15 KTS.
THU...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR IN SHRA. WINDS W-NW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...DWE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
130 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL
STAY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING
FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA
TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY MID
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...12Z AREA RAOBS CONFIRM RUC ANALYSIS OF A
LARGE NE TO SW GRADIENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER...RANGING FROM
1.2 TO 2.2 FROM MHX TO CHS. AS SUCH IT MAY BE HARD TO GET MEASURABLE
RAINFALL INTO THE CAPE FEAR REGION AND POPS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED.
NON-MEASURABLE DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES APPEAR MORE LIKELY. DESPITE THE
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND NE WINDS THE TEMPERATURE CONTINUES
TO CLAW ITS WAY SLOWLY UPWARD AND AN EARLIER TEMPTATION TO LOWER
HIGH TEMP FCST HAS BEEN TABLED. NO OTHER CHANGES THAN TO
AFOREMENTIONED POPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUES WITH A DEEP N-NW
FLOW OF DRY AIR AS RIDGE BUILDS UP THE EAST COAST. PCP WATER
VALUES DROP OFF QUICKLY FROM AROUND 1.5 INCHES TUES MORNING DOWN
TO LESS THAN AN INCH BY TUES NIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA BY TUES AFTN AND RUNNING
THROUGH WED.
MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND SUNNY SKIES WILL YIELD TEMPS UP AROUND
80 ON TUES. DRIER AIR IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS DOWN CLOSE TO
60 AND BELOW OVER INLAND AREAS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO DROP
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS ON WED WILL WARM INTO THE
80S WITH THE AID OF A MORE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH
BRIGHT SUNSHINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD UP THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AT THE SURFACE. PLENTY
OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS WILL PRODUCE
ANOTHER MAINLY SUNNY DAY. SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY MAY PRODUCE SOME AFTN CU BUT OVERALL EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH TEMPS REACHING UP AROUND 80.
BY FRI...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE
FLOW. AS THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE SLIPS EAST A TROUGH BEGINS TO
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THIS TROUGH
DIGS DOWN IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
LATE FRI INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE FLOW REMAINS MORE WESTERLY AND
THEREFORE DOES NOT PULL UP MUCH IN THE WAY OF GULF MOISTURE SO
EXPECT FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED. THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF AREA AND
THEREFORE SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT A WARM AND SUNNY START TO FRIDAY AND
EXPECT PCP TO REMAIN ON THE LOW END WITH BEST CHC FRI EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
SATURDAY THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH AS IT
SHIFTS EAST. MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LEAVING A VERY BROAD TROUGH WITH
MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW BY SUNDAY. A DEEP COOLER NW FLOW SHOULD
PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH READINGS IN THE
MID 70S FOR HIGHS AND LOW TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN A WHILE IN A VERY DRY AIR MASS WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS
DOWN IN THE 50S. OVERALL EXPECT MORE FALL LIKE WEATHER FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOOKS LIKE PRECIP TODAY WILL STAY MAINLY INLAND WITH
SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY AT THE MYRTLES. STILL MAINLY A MID CLOUD
CEILING THAT THE PRECIP IS COMING OUT OF...HOWEVER BELIEVE
PRECIPITATION INDUCED CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY COME
DOWN...PARTICULARLY TOWARD SUNSET. AM NOT GOING AS LOW AS THE NAM
HOWEVER...AS IT HAS BEEN LOWERING CEILINGS TOO MUCH OVER THE PAST
WEEK AT LEAST. TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AND MOVE
EAST AS THE FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE COAST TOWARD MORNING. VFR
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT. BECOMING VFR SATURDAY WITH
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...N TO NE GRADIENT WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH. FURTHER OUT TO SEA THE
GRADIENT IS QUITE WEAK SO SEAS GENERALLY COMPRISED OF SHORTER PERIOD
WIND CHOP IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY AND
PERSISTING THROUGH TONIGHT UNTIL DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE PULLS
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. N TO NE WIND...GENERALLY AROUND 10
KTS... WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THE WIND WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS AWAY FROM THE COAST DURING THE DAY...THEN
15 TO 20 KTS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
EVOLVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT
INITIALLY THEN BUILDING TO 4 FT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE BACK END OF
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE MOVING FARTHER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH TUES...WILL INCREASE UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS AS GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. SEAS WILL INCREASE
UP TO 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH TUES BUT WILL COME BACK DOWN TO 2 TO 3 FT
BY WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THURS AND
SHIFT OFF SHORE BY FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH THURS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BY FRI AND INCREASING UP
TO 15 KTS BY FRI AFTN AS FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. SEAS DOWN TO 2 TO 3
FT ON THURS WILL INCREASE BACK UP TO 3 TO 4 FT WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WITH THE STRONGER WINDS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
703 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
KBWI RADAR SHOWING THE LIGHT RAIN WHICH WAS SKIRTING S LANCASTER
CO HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA AS OF 22Z. A SHIELD OF MID AND
HIGH LVL CLOUDS REMAIN OVER EASTERN PA EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AFTER DARK...AS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOC WAA ALOFT SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE.
CENTRAL PA WILL BE IN BTWN SHORTWAVES TONIGHT...ONE DEPARTING THE
E COAST AND NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS. LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE
BTWN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY FCST OVERNIGHT. MCLEAR SKIES
AND A CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG.
LATEST SREF AND RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST...UNLIKE MANY RECENT NIGHTS...SOME
OF THE FOG COULD AFFECT EVEN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. DWPTS IN THE
50S SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT FOR LATE SEPT...WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE L/M 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A COMPACT UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW WILL DROP OUT OF THE LOWER GR LAKES
TUESDAY. DECREASING STABILITY UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL HELP
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT CAPE WILL BE
MODEST...BUT FORECAST TOTAL-TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 50 ARE USUALLY A
GOOD INDICATOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LOW TOPPED CONVECTION.
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF
0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS...BUT AMOUNTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER...0.15
TO 0.25 OF AN INCH...ACROSS THE FAR NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A FEW DEG COOLER AND IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN
ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND.
CLOUDIER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAN RECENT DAYS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROF WED...HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT
MOISTURE-LIMITED AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS ON
WED HOWEVER WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. WARMER WEATHER MAKES
A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO NORMALS.
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN
EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW CU PRESENT LATE THIS AFT. ADJUSTED 21Z TAFS FOR THIS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
THE REGION IS EXPERIENCING SOME LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING
ACROSS THE SKY AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH LOCALIZED FOG MAY AGAIN BE A CONCERN
LATER TONIGHT. IF THE UPSTREAM CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING GR
LAKES FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE IN QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...THIS WOULD
PUT A DAMPER ON THE FOG AND ASSURE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
THE DAY TUESDAY.
TUE-WED...AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE GR LAKES INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BRING SCT RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CIGS PROBABLE AT NIGHT.
OUTLOOK /THU THROUGH SAT/...
THU...LOW CIGS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST PROVIDES AN EAST-SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW.
FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PSBL ASSOC WITH GUSTY FROPA.
SAT...BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE OVER NWRN AREAS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
605 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
KBWI RADAR SHOWING THE LIGHT RAIN WHICH WAS SKIRTING S LANCASTER
CO HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA AS OF 22Z. A SHIELD OF MID AND
HIGH LVL CLOUDS REMAIN OVER EASTERN PA EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AFTER DARK...AS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOC WAA ALOFT SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE.
CENTRAL PA WILL BE IN BTWN SHORTWAVES TONIGHT...ONE DEPARTING THE
E COAST AND NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS. LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE
BTWN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY FCST OVERNIGHT. MCLEAR SKIES
AND A CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG.
LATEST SREF AND RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST...UNLIKE MANY RECENT NIGHTS...SOME
OF THE FOG COULD AFFECT EVEN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. DWPTS IN THE
50S SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT FOR LATE SEPT...WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE L/M 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A COMPACT UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW WILL DROP OUT OF THE LOWER GR LAKES
TUESDAY. DECREASING STABILITY UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL HELP
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT CAPE WILL BE
MODEST...BUT FORECAST TOTAL-TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 50 ARE USUALLY A
GOOD INDICATOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LOW TOPPED CONVECTION.
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF
0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS...BUT AMOUNTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER...0.15
TO 0.25 OF AN INCH...ACROSS THE FAR NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A FEW DEG COOLER AND IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN
ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND.
CLOUDIER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAN RECENT DAYS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FIRST TROF WED...HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT
MOISTURE-LIMITED AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS ON
WED HOWEVER WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. WARMER WEATHER MAKES
A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO NORMALS.
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN
EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE REGION IS EXPERIENCING SOME LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING
ACROSS THE SKY AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH LOCALIZED FOG MAY AGAIN BE A CONCERN
LATER TONIGHT. IF THE UPSTREAM CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING GR
LAKES FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE IN QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...THIS WOULD
PUT A DAMPER ON THE FOG AND ASSURE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
THE DAY TUESDAY.
TUE-WED...AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE GR LAKES INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BRING SCT RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CIGS PROBABLE AT NIGHT.
OUTLOOK /THU THROUGH SAT/...
THU...LOW CIGS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST PROVIDES AN EAST-SOUTHEAST MARITIME FLOW.
FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PSBL ASSOC WITH GUSTY FROPA.
SAT...BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE OVER NWRN AREAS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1238 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
SOME SHOWERS AND TURNING SHARPLY COLDER TODAY.
UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY CLOSED AND NEARLY CUT-
OFF LOW OVER THE WRN CONUS...AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OVER THE ERN
CONUS...AND THE MAIN WESTERLIES ACRS CANADA. THE WRN LOW WL GET
RE-ENERGIZED AS ANOTHER UPR LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF AK
DIGS SE AND PHASES WITH IT...WITH THE RESULTING UPR TROF BECOMING
PROGRESSIVE. THE TROF WL REACH ERN NOAM BY NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE A
RIDGE FORMS OUT WEST. THE NEW PATTERN WL HAVE MODEST AMPLITUDE.
STG COLD FRONT DRIVING SWD ACRS THE AREA TDA WL BRING AN ABRUPT
END TO THE STRING OF UNSEASONABLY WARM WX. TEMPS WL CRASH TO BLO
NORMAL LEVELS BY TOMORROW...RECOVER TO NR OR A LITTLE ABV NORMAL
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD MID-WK...THEN DROP OFF TO A LITTLE BLO NORMAL
BY THE WEEKEND. PCPN IS LIKELY TO END UP AOA NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD. WHILE SOME RN IS EXPECTED TDA...THE BULK OF THE PCPN WL
FALL DURING THE MIDDLE-LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK WHEN THE LARGE
SCALE UPR TROF CROSSES THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
THE OVERALL FCST IS PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD. STG COLD FRONT WL DROP
S ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTN. FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING COMBINED WITH QG FORCING FM FAIRLY STG SHRTWV DROPPING SE
WL RESULT IN LIFT BACK OVER THE FRONTAL SFC...AND A BAND OF POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS. BUT THERE WERE PLENTY OF FCST DETAILS TO WORK OUT
IN THE GRIDS INCLUDING TIMING OF PCPN AND POPS...THE NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND TDA...WINDS IN ERN WI...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LAKE-EFFECT CLDS AND PCPN TNGT INTO EARLY TUE.
THE FRONT IS ALREADY INTO THE FCST AREA...AND EXPECT IT TO CLR THE
AREA ARND 16Z. SHRA JUST ENTERING NW VILAS COUNTY. WENT WITH CAT
POPS FOR THE FAR N THIS MORNING...THEN STUCK WITH LIKELIES AT
BEST LATER TDA AS COVERAGE OF SHRA MIGHT NOT BE COMPLETE...ESP
OVER THE SW CORNER OF THE FCST AREA. BASED ON THE REACTION OF THE
WINDS ON ERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING...EXPECT A PRETTY STG SWD
PUSH OF THE FRONT DOWN THE BAY. SO ADDED SOME GUSTY N-NE WINDS
MID-DAY OVER ERN WI IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
LIKED THE WAY THE RAP HELD ONTO SHRA OVER E-C WI INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...AS SHRTWV DROPPING SWD BEHIND THE FRONT WL BE PRETTY
STG. A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONGER NNE FLOW IS LIKELY
OVERNIGHT AS 925 MB FLOW COMES ARND TO THE NNE AND COLD AIR ALOFT
RESULTS IN STG INSTABILITY OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE
LAKE AND BAY.
WAS MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE IN GETTIG
RID OF THE CLDS LATER TDA/TNGT. EARLY MORNING STLT SHOWED AN
EXPANSIVE LOW-DECK BEHIND THE FRONT...AND N/NELY FLOW DOWN ACRS
LAKES SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN WL LIKELY GENERATE MORE CLDS. WOULD NOT
EVEN BE SURPRISED TO GET SOME LGT LAKE-EFFECT SHRA. JUST CARRIED
AS SPRINKLES FOR NOW. A FROST/FREEZE WOULD BE LIKELY ACRS ABOUT
THE NWRN 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA IF CLDS CLEAR OUT COMPLETELY...BUT
JUST HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING THAT HAPPENING. WENT A BIT ABV GUID
WITH MINS PRIMARILY IN THE MIDDLE 30S NW...TO MIDDLE 40S SE. DAY
SHIFT SHOULD HAVE THE BENEFIT OF TRACKING THE CLD TRENDS DURING
THE DAY...AND CAN ADJUST MINS AND POST ANY NEEDED FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES THIS AFTN IF NECESSARY.
QUIETER WX WL RETURN TUE...BUT THE CANADIAN AIR MASS WL BE
ENTRENCHED ACRS THE AREA BY THEN SO WENT TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
THE GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
STILL LOOKING FOR A PATTERN CHANGE TO TAKE PLACE LATER THIS WEEK AS
MEAN TROUGHING SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE TRANSITION
OCCURS...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL ARRIVE DURING THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL
HAVE A FEW DETAILS TO GET WORKED OUT...SINCE EACH SOLUTION HAS A
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING/STRENGTH OF SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. WILL
LEAN ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF...THOUGH WILL ALSO WORK IN THE
GEM. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE PREFERRED BY HPC.
TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
NORTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING
EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WILL HAVE EASTERLY WINDS
EMANATING OUT OF THE HIGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FEEDING DRY AIR INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF WISCONSIN WHICH WILL TRY TO FIGHT BACK SHOWERS
WITHIN A MID-LEVEL THETAE AXIS OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN. THINK THE DRY AIR
WILL WIN OUT AND WILL STICK WITH A DRY FORECAST. THE BAND OF
SHOWERS WILL STALL ON WEDNESDAY AS IT LOSES ITS FORWARD PUSH. BUT
THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE SHOWERS COULD IMPACT NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN SO WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES. THE EAST SHOULD REMAIN
DRY WITH EAST WINDS CONTINUING. THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL GET SOME
FORWARD MOMENTUM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHT FALLS TAKE PLACE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE CHANCE OF PRECIP INTO EASTERN
WISCONSIN. COULD SEE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT IN
GENERAL...INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL. WILL DROP HIGHS OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO PRECIP AND
CLOUDS BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN IN THE 60S EVERYWHERE. NO CHANGES TO
LOW TEMPS.
REST OF THE FORECAST...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
BUT SOME INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THAT COULD PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP.
THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING WESTERN TROUGH REACHES THE STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL MARK THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG SECONDARY FRONT. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY BENEATH THE TROUGH. THEN
PRECIP CHANCES START TO FALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHEN THE
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. BUT COLDER AIR WILL BE
ARRIVING BY THIS TIME...WHEN HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE
50 DEGREES IN SPOTS. SOME MODERATING OCCURS ON SUNDAY BEFORE
RETURNING MOISTURE CREATES ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN LATER SUNDAY
OR NEXT MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
CDFNT HAS CLEARED NE WI WITH A N-NE WIND BEING REPORTED AT ALL
OBSERVATION SITES. AREA OF LIGHT SHWRS TRAILING THE FNT WL MOVE
ACROSS E-CNTRL WI THIS AFTERNOON AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
EVENING. CIGS BEHIND THE CDFNT WERE MAINLY IN THE MVFR RANGE AND
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONT THRU MUCH OF THE NGT AS CAA MOVES OVER
THE WARMER WATERS OF LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN AND HELPS TO
MAINTAIN THE CLOUDS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE CNTRL WI AND THE
AUW/CWA TAF SITES WHERE SOME CLEARING MAY TAKE PLACE LATER TNGT.
VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN ON TUE AS BOTH A SFC HI TO THE NORTH AND
A WEAK UPR RDG MOVING INTO THE REGION...PROVIDE A QUIET BUT COOL
DAY OVER THE REGION. ERN WI LIKELY TO BE THE LAST TO COMPLETELY
CLEAR OUT ON TUE DUE TO LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A DEPARTED
SHORTWAVE TROF.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......AK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
317 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
CONVECTIVE LINE WAS ALREADY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON EXTENDING
FROM ROCK RIVER SSE TOWARDS THE DENVER METRO AREA. ATMOSPHERIC
DESTABILIZATION ALBEIT WEAK HAS BEEN UNDERWAY BEHIND THE MORNING
CONVECTION AND AHEAD OF THIS SECONDARY CONVECTIVE LINE. ALTHOUGH
LINGERING CLOUD COVER HAS INHIBITED IT SOME. 21Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACED
THE 1003MB LOW SOUTH OF PUEBLO WITH PRESSURE FALLS TO THE NORTH
ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR TOWARDS DENVER. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED
1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE NOSING INTO THE SRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS A BAND
OF 40-50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPROACHED FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT SATELLITE PIX SHOWED WAS LIFTING
NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THIS FTR WILL LIFT INTO
COLORADO BY 6 PM BEFORE CLOSING OFF NR THE WY/NE STATELINE BY
MIDNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW NOW LOCATED NR PUEBLO WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AND DEEPEN TO
993MB BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES SO...LLVL SOUTHEAST FLOW
COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL SPEED MAX TO DRAW A
FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE EARLY THIS
EVENING. LATEST HRRR HAS DONE WELL WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION SO FAR
AND SUGGESTS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BE GREATEST WHILE STORM MODES
ARE DISCRETE...WITH EVEN A FEW ROTATING UPDRAFTS CONTAINING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE. THIS
WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE FROM EASTERN LARAMIE COUNTY EAST TO
SIDNEY. BY EARLY/MID-EVENING SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY
AS CONVECTION BECOMES A MORE HOMOGENEOUS AREA OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MANY OF
THESE AREAS OVR THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE RECEIVED 1-2 INCHES THIS
MORNING AND WITH ANOTHER AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES ON ITS WAY OVERNIGHT.
THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WARRANTED TONIGHT. THE OTHER CONCERN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE AREA IS ITS IMPACT ON WINDS. SW/NE ORIENTED GRADIENTS
TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT CONTINUING THRU TUESDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL EVENT...THIS PUTS THE WIND PRONE AREAS
IN SE WYOMING UNDER THE GUN. EVEN THOUGH KCAG-KCPR GRADIENTS ARE A
BIT MARGINAL...H7 PROGS CONTINUE TO POINT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HIGH WIND SET-UP EARLY TUESDAY. WILL KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING
GOING AS INHERITED.
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE FOR A TIME NR THE PINE RIDGE
TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST BY MIDDAY. FLOW
WILL WESTERLY FOR TUESDAY...BUT THE CWFA WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY
THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE ROCKIES. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LESS.
THE NEXT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST THRU THE
CWFA FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVR THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS AND PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ON
TUESDAY...BACK INTO THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN
INTO THE 50S ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
PRETTY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IN PLACE. SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN
MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY ON THURS. NO PRECIP IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THURS WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND 0C. A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON FRI AND THEN CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH 700MB TEMPS RISING TO 5-10C. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT
IS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON THURS THROUGH SUN...IT WILL STILL BE
BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY WITH
GOOD MIXING IN PLACE. EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25-30
KTS ON MOST AFTNS. PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE VERY
LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERAL RIDGING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A LACK OF MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
GOING TO GET A BREAK FROM THE RAIN AND LOWER CIGS THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT LAR AND CYS AROUND 21Z AND THEN SPREAD
NORTH AND EAST INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE DURING THE EARLY
EVENING. SINCE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY...WENT WITH
PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY EVENING OVER THE PLAINS
SITES. RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH
TUES MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OVER THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE AFTN. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION AFTER
06Z WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST. IT WILL BE WINDY
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS INTO THE DISTRICTS THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
BRING WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS TO A LARGE PART OF THE
DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SOME AREAS IN THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE PICKED UP 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN THIS
MORNING AND ARE IN LINE FOR ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES...PERHAPS LOCALLY
HIGHER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH NOON TUESDAY. WIND
PRONE AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL BECOME VERY WINDY LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN
EFFECT. THE COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE LIGHTER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON MDT TUESDAY FOR
WYZ106-110-116-117.
NE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NEZ002-003-019>021-054-
055-095-096.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1205 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
FIRST LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW EAST OF THE CWFA
FOR THE MOST PART WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF ALBANY...
LARAMIE AND PLATTE COUNTIES THIS MORNING. ATMOSPHERIC
DESTABILIZATION ALREADY UNDERWAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ALREADY
BEING REACHED IN THIS AREAS. IN A RECENT UPDATE HAVE BOOSTED HIGHS
3-4F ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY BROKEN OUT LATE THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR CONVECTIVE RE-DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BY
BETWEEN 1-2 PM PER LATEST HRRR OUTPUT. EVERYTHING STILL CONTINUES
TO POINT TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS...SOME OF WHICH WILL HAVE SEVERE
POTENTIAL GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A CHEYENNE TO ALLIANCE LINE.
THE OTHER CONCERN IS WITH FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THESE AREAS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 1-2 INCHES
OF RAINFALL THIS MORNING...AND WITH ANOTHER 1-2...POTENTIALLY
HIGHER ON THE WAY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...THOUGH IT WAS PRUDENT
TO HOIST A FLOOD WATCH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS
CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 450 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
AN ACTIVE DAY OF WEATHER TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
NOTICEABLE ON RADAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VORTICITY LOBE WHICH IS
LIFTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT THROUGH THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN
SHOT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS
MID AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THIS IS A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM
AND WILL BRING WITH IT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS.
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON MAY SERVE TO SLIGHTLY LIMIT THE
OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT REGARDLESS OF SURFACE
HEATING...UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHOULD MORE THAN COMPENSATE. STRONG
DIFFLUENT/DIVERGENT FLOW AND COOLING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE AMPLE
LIFT AND INSTABILITY RESPECTIVELY. THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL BE
HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN...BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS
WELL AS...TORNADOES. LCL HEIGHTS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE GROUND
SUCH THAT ANY STRONG UPDRAFTS WILL NOT HAVE TO DO MUCH WORK TO
STRETCH AND TILT HORIZONTAL VORTICITY. MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE
SHOWING SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
MUCH OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
ALOFT QUICKLY VEER WITH HEIGHT WHICH IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO
GENESIS. THE MAIN TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL BE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING.
40 TO 50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH ELEVATED CAPE
AROUND 1000 J/KG WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ROBUST UPDRAFTS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. ALTHOUGH FREEZING LEVELS ARE RATHER HIGH
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THEY WILL ONLY BE 7000 TO 9000 FEET AGL BY
00Z THIS EVENING AND FALLING. THIS MEANS HAILS STONES WILL HAVE
NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO MELT BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. WOULD NOT
BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED TO SEE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS WITH A
FEW STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...PARTICULARLY
INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ALSO WORRIED ABOUT HEAVY RAIN. DUAL
POLE RADAR ALREADY SHOWING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LAST EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT CONVECTION FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HEAVY RAINS OVER
THESE AREAS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
FLASH FLOODING. FORTUNATELY IT HAS BEEN DRY AS OF LATE SO GENERALLY
THE GROUND SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE HEAVY RAIN...AS LONG AS THERE
IS NOT TOO MUCH TRAINING OF STORMS...WHICH IS POSSIBLE.
THE OTHER MAIN CONCERN IS FOR LATER TONIGHT AS WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND COLD AIR ADVECTS EASTWARD.
THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG WEST
WINDS...MAINLY IN WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. HAVE
ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS SUCH AS THE
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND FOOTHILLS...ARLINGTON...AND BORDEAUX.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON TUESDAY.
WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
FOR WIND ADVISORY POTENTIAL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
A GOOD CHANCE OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 AS THE TROUGH WILL BE
RATHER PROGRESSIVE. THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ABOVE 8500 FEET WILL SEE
SNOWFALL INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE. SNOW LEVEL SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE VALLEY FLOORS...ALTHOUGH
IT MAY GET CLOSE TO THE LARAMIE VALLEY FOR A TIME LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT LATE NEXT WEEK SHOWING STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE POLAR JET
STREAM SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CANADA. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.
ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...SHOWING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH HIGHS LIKELY AROUND 70 BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
THEN DRIFTS EASTWARD. KEPT POP BELOW 10 PERCENT EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
GOING TO GET A BREAK FROM THE RAIN AND LOWER CIGS THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT LAR AND CYS AROUND 21Z AND THEN SPREAD
NORTH AND EAST INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE DURING THE EARLY
EVENING. SINCE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY...WENT WITH
PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY EVENING OVER THE PLAINS
SITES. RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH
TUES MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OVER THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE AFTN. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION AFTER
06Z WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST. IT WILL BE WINDY
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND
OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY. LESS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INTO CARBON COUNTY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY
INTO THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. STRONG WEST WINDS TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. BREEZY TO WINDY
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. COOL WEATHER WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRYING OUT AND WARMING UP LATE THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON MDT TUESDAY FOR
WYZ106-110-116-117.
NE...FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAHN
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...SML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1131 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
FIRST LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW EAST OF THE CWFA
FOR THE MOST PART WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF ALBANY...
LARAMIE AND PLATTE COUNTIES THIS MORNING. ATMOSPHERIC
DESTABILZIATION ALREADY UNDERWAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ALREADY
BEING REACHED IN THIS AREAS. IN A RECENT UPDATE HAVE BOOSTED HIGHS
3-4F ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY BROKEN OUT LATE THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR CONVECTIVE RE-DEVEOPMENT EXPECTED BY
BETWEEN 1-2 PM PER LATEST HRRR OUTPUT. EVERYTHING STILL CONTINUES
TO POINT TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS...SOME OF WHICH WILL HAVE SEVERE
POTENTIAL GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A CHEYENNE TO ALLIANCE LINE.
THE OTHER CONCERN IS WITH FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THESE AREAS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 1-2 INCHES
OF RAINFALL THIS MORNING...AND WITH ANOTHER 1-2...POTENTIALLY
HIGHER ON THE WAY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...THOUGH IT WAS PRUDENT
TO HOIST A FLOOD WATCH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS
CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 450 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
AN ACTIVE DAY OF WEATHER TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
NOTICEABLE ON RADAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VORTICITY LOBE WHICH IS
LIFTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT THROUGH THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN
SHOT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS
MID AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THIS IS A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM
AND WILL BRING WITH IT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS.
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON MAY SERVE TO SLIGHTLY LIMIT THE
OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT REGARDLESS OF SURFACE
HEATING...UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHOULD MORE THAN COMPENSATE. STRONG
DIFFLUENT/DIVERGENT FLOW AND COOLING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE AMPLE
LIFT AND INSTABILITY RESPECTIVELY. THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL BE
HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN...BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS
WELL AS...TORNADOES. LCL HEIGHTS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE GROUND
SUCH THAT ANY STRONG UPDRAFTS WILL NOT HAVE TO DO MUCH WORK TO
STRETCH AND TILT HORIZONTAL VORTICITY. MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE
SHOWING SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
MUCH OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
ALOFT QUICKLY VEER WITH HEIGHT WHICH IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO
GENESIS. THE MAIN TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL BE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING.
40 TO 50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH ELEVATED CAPE
AROUND 1000 J/KG WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ROBUST UPDRAFTS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. ALTHOUGH FREEZING LEVELS ARE RATHER HIGH
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THEY WILL ONLY BE 7000 TO 9000 FEET AGL BY
00Z THIS EVENING AND FALLING. THIS MEANS HAILS STONES WILL HAVE
NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO MELT BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. WOULD NOT
BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED TO SEE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS WITH A
FEW STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...PARTICULARLY
INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ALSO WORRIED ABOUT HEAVY RAIN. DUAL
POLE RADAR ALREADY SHOWING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LAST EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT CONVECTION FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HEAVY RAINS OVER
THESE AREAS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
FLASH FLOODING. FORTUNATELY IT HAS BEEN DRY AS OF LATE SO GENERALLY
THE GROUND SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE HEAVY RAIN...AS LONG AS THERE
IS NOT TOO MUCH TRAINING OF STORMS...WHICH IS POSSIBLE.
THE OTHER MAIN CONCERN IS FOR LATER TONIGHT AS WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND COLD AIR ADVECTS EASTWARD.
THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG WEST
WINDS...MAINLY IN WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. HAVE
ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS SUCH AS THE
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND FOOTHILLS...ARLINGTON...AND BORDEAUX.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON TUESDAY.
WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
FOR WIND ADVISORY POTENTIAL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
A GOOD CHANCE OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 AS THE TROUGH WILL BE
RATHER PROGRESSIVE. THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ABOVE 8500 FEET WILL SEE
SNOWFALL INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE. SNOW LEVEL SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE VALLEY FLOORS...ALTHOUGH
IT MAY GET CLOSE TO THE LARAMIE VALLEY FOR A TIME LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT LATE NEXT WEEK SHOWING STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE POLAR JET
STREAM SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CANADA. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.
ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...SHOWING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH HIGHS LIKELY AROUND 70 BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
THEN DRIFTS EASTWARD. KEPT POP BELOW 10 PERCENT EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. BETWEEN THE
INDIVIDUAL TSTORM CELLS...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
CONTINUING OVER MOST EASTERN SITES THROUGH LATE MORNING. THIS
BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION WILL NOT LAST LONG HOWEVER...AS
CONVECTION WILL RAPIDLY REDEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS ACROSS THE PLAINS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...WITH SOME STORMS
POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG OR SEVERE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT INTO THE WEST LATER TONIGHT BRINGING
DRIER AIR TO THE REGION BUT ALSO THE THREAT OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS
OVER 45 KNOTS...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND
OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY. LESS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INTO CARBON COUNTY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY
INTO THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. STRONG WEST WINDS TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. BREEZY TO WINDY
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. COOL WEATHER WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRYING OUT AND WARMING UP LATE THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON MDT TUESDAY FOR
WYZ106-110-116-117.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAHN
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...SML