Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 09/26/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
835 PM MST THU SEP 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG PACIFIC STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND HAIL. AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY
NIGHT...DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MID EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RADAR CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A WEAK
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EASTERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING. THIS TROUGH IN
COMBINATION WITH INCREASED BL MOISTURE KICKED OFF A FEW STRONG
SHOWERS ACROSS GILA COUNTY THIS EVENING AND WHILE A FEW SHOWERS
REMAIN ON THE RADAR AS OF 0330Z...STORMS HAVE QUIETED DOWN
SUBSTANTIALLY SINCE SUNSET. MEANWHILE WEAK MID-LEVEL SPEED
CONVERGENCE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST RESULTED IN SOME VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. THESE TOO HAVE DIED OFF
SUBSTANTIALLY SINCE SUNSET.
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AND THE FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO
SKY/TEMPS/DEWPOINTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS THROUGH 03Z BUT OTHERWISE
THINGS REMAIN ON TRACK. STILL LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE SATURDAY ACROSS
THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NOTE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS CONTINUING TO INCREASE WITH REGARDS TO
A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ...INCLUDING PHOENIX ON SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH
POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WINDS...AND HAIL.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE HRRR AND GFS ARE ALSO SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE OTHER IMPACT FROM THE APPROACHING TROF
ON FRIDAY WILL BE AN INCREASE OF THE WINDS ACROSS SE CA...WITH
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15KTS...WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS LIKELY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
LATEST MODEL SUITES CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MAJOR EARLY FALL
STORM...WHICH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEGINNING
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. THIS MORNING/S 12Z
MODEL SUITES ARE VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT/S 00Z...WHICH BEGIN TO
INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SAT MORNING AS
UPPER-LEVEL DIFLUENCE INCREASES AND WINDS ALOFT INCREASE...WITH BULK
SHEAR VALUES RISING INTO THE 30-50KT RANGE ACROSS THE REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY. THESE DYNAMICS...COMBINED WITH PWATS IN THE 1.50-175
INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED-NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A FEW OF THESE CELLS
APPROACHING/REACHING SEVERE LIMITS. SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NV. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AND WIND SHEAR
PARAMETERS ARE LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
STORMS...ONLY MINIMAL COOLING IS EXPECTED IN THE MID LEVELS...WITH
500MB TEMP FORECAST TO FALL ONLY ABOUT 3 DEGREES C...FROM AROUND -6C
TO -9C...WHICH WILL LIKELY PUT A CAP ON THE AMOUNT OF SEVERE STORM
ACTIVITY THAT WE WILL SEE. THE FLAGSTAFF CWA...ON THE OTHER
HAND...IS EXPECTED TO SEE MUCH BETTER COOLING ALOFT...WITH 500MB
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE -10-15C RANGE...GIVING THAT REGION A MUCH
BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY.
AS FAR AS RAINFALL AMOUNT ARE CONCERNED...THE MODELS SEEMS TO BE
CONVERGING TOWARDS AMOUNTS IN THE 0.50-1.00 INCH RANGE OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. AFTER SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...A FAIRLY RAPID CLEARING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST IS THEN EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD
LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY DUE TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER ACROSS THE REGION.
.MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES TO IMPORT DRY AIR INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
FEW-SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG WITH STORM CHANCES.
WILL INTRODUCE PROB30S INTO THE TAFS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
TIMEFRAME. TIMING WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY BUT BEST
CHANCES SHOULD BE AFTER 22Z FRIDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF PHOENIX...ARE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE REGION. DRIER AIR
WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE
OF CONVECTION THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AFTERNOON MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 20 PERCENT ON
SUNDAY...AND THEN TREND TO AROUND 15 PERCENT BY THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE DRIER AIR...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. SOME GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY...THOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS/PERCHA/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST WED SEP 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...LIMITED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL THEN INCREASE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER TO START THE NEW
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN INTO THE .9 TO 1.1 RANGE
TODAY. STILL HANGING ON TO ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED MAINLY MOUNTAIN
STORMS.
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE INFLUENCES FROM THAT IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX THAT STARTED WAY DOWN BY PUERTO VALLARTA YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. IT HELD TOGETHER WELL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING
AS IT PUSHED PAST MAZATLAN BEFORE DIEING OFF NEAR LOS MOCHIS.
HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW HAS HELPED CONTINUE THE IMPULSE INTO
SOUTHERN SONORA WITH A CHILD COMPLEX FIRING JUST SOUTH OF GUAYMAS.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG OUTFLOW AND MCV
ACTIVITY WITH AN EYE TOWARD LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST AND
WEST OF TUCSON. THE INFLUENCES FROM THIS FEATURE HAVE BEEN PUSHING
UP THE GULF AT ABOUT 30KTS AND WHILE IT WILL HAVE ADDITIONAL
DIFFICULTY UNDER THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE DECAYING RIDGE OVER
US...IT SHOULD NOT BE DISCOUNTED AND THE ECWMF HINTS AT IT`S
INFLUENCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE THE OVERALL INCREASING MOISTURE TREND WILL CONTINUE TO SET
UP WITH NICE SURFACE STREAMLINE TRENDS FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
INTO WESTERN TO CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY NOTED ON LATEST HRRR OUTPUT.
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE STRONG
LOW NEAR THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA SEES SEVERAL PIECES OF
REINFORCING ENERGY DIG A STRONG EARLY SEASON TROUGH DOWN THE WEST
COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE STRONG TROUGH WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE GREAT BASIN INTO A MID TO
LATE FALL POSITION BEFORE FILLING A BIT AS IT LIFTS THROUGH NORTH OF
US. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL LOSE SOME
INFLECTION AS IT LIFTS ON THE NORTHWEST FLANK OF THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE. A FRAGMENTING SURFACE FRONT WILL EVIDENCE THE INFLUENCES OF
THE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. BEST MOISTURE DYNAMICS COUPLET STILL FOCUSING ON CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ARIZONA...BUT WE SHOULD GET SOME STRONG STORMS AROUND HERE
SATURDAY. STILL WELL ON THE WARM SECTOR SIDE SATURDAY BUT COOLING
SUNDAY WITH COOLEST AIR MASS IN PLACE MONDAY AS DAYTIME HIGHS FALL
FROM THE UPPER 90S LATE THIS WEEK TO THE MID 80S AT TIA BY MONDAY.
MUCH DRIER BEHIND THE TROUGH AND CONSIDERING THE PATTERN CHANGE TO
MUCH LOWER LATITUDE JET NEXT WEEK...NO ADDITIONAL PROSPECTS TO KEEP
THE MONSOON GOING. AFTER THIS WEEKEND WE`RE PROBABLY DONE.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/12Z.
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE IS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED CLOUDS BETWEEN 8 AND 9
THOUSAND FEET WILL DEVELOP IN AND AROUND TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE RULE. OVERNIGHT
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON THE INCREASE. STORMS WILL FAVOR HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY IN AND
AROUND ANY THAT DEVELOP. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
15 MPH THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH ARE
FORECASTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO OUR NORTH.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
MEYER/CANTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
937 AM PDT Wed Sep 24 2014
.Synopsis...
Approaching trough will bring cooler, windy, and wetter weather
for the rest of the week. Cool, unsettled weather may linger
into the weekend.
&&
.Discussion...
Frontal band continues to linger over the Northern CA coastline.
The Eureka forecast office reported 1-2" of rain being measured
in some coastal locations and up to 3" of rain in higher
elevations. This front has been moving very slowly so do not
expect the main precipitation band to impact our CWA until later
tonight. The higher resolution WRF & HRRR models show the
rainband slowly moving across the coastal range between 5-9 pm.
Rain should impact much of the Northern Sacramento valley around
midnight then spread eastward & southward overnight.
One thing we will be watching with the next model run is the
pattern this weekend. The GFS and NAM models are indicating that the
low will move more quickly into the Great Basin, whereas, the
ECMWF has the low lingering over our region through the weekend.
May adjust precipitation on Saturday if the GFS & NAM persist in
this solution. Otherwise, no significant changes to the forecast
this morning. Red Flag Warning remains in effect as we anticipate
increasing southwesterly winds as this front approaches. JBB
Previous Discussion...Ahead of this frontal band, southwest winds are expected
to increase today. Emphasis of winds will be along the northern
Sacramento Valley and eastern Shasta County, as well as Plumas
County mountains and the Sierra. The higher mountain ridges should
see the greatest impact from wind with local southwest wind gusts
as high as 45 mph today. Temperatures will remain near to slightly
below normal today ahead of the frontal band, but will be a few
degrees cooler than yesterday due to a stronger onshore push,
cooler air mass moving inland, and increase in cloud cover.
Models continue to show a slow progression eastward of the low
pressure system, which will result in a slow onset of rainfall for
interior northern California. Current projected precipitable water
values associated with the system are around 1.25 to 1.50 inches
with the frontal band as it pushes over western Shasta County and
the coastal mountains this evening/tonight. Showers are expected
to spread east and south into Thursday and reach the Sierra by
Thursday morning...though main rainfall looks to remain north of
I-80. Winds will continue to be fairly strong over the Sierra
ridges and higher terrain Thursday, but will be accompanied by
periods of rain showers and higher humidity values. Daytime high
temperatures are expected to drop several more degrees Thursday
as the cool system dominates the region.
By Friday and Saturday, the center of the low is forecast to
pass over northern California as it digs south and east. This
will continue an unsettled cool and showery pattern. The cool air
mass aloft with wrap around disturbances may promote some
instability mainly over the mountains on Friday and possibly
Saturday. The GFS is quicker at shifting the low eastward which
could limit thunderstorm development, while the EC, GEM, and NAM
suggest a slower progression of the low with better thunderstorm
potential based on pattern recognition. Therefore, the timing and
placement of thunderstorms is still a bit uncertain. Shen
&&
.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)
Medium range models show discrepancies on how quickly the low
pressure system will exit the region, with GFS being the more
progressive solution. However, it is likely that some lingering
shower activity over the mountains and cooler temperatures will
continue at least through Sunday. In the wake of the trough, very
brief ridging will allow temperatures to warm a few degrees
Monday before NorCal falls under a troughy northwest flow by
Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures look to remain mild through
the extended with drier northerly winds expected. Shen
&&
.Aviation...
Generally VFR conditions with mid and high clouds as Pacific
frontal system approaches the coast. Possible MFR cigs northern
Sacramento valley after 06z tonight. Smoke from King Fire will
bring local IFR/MVFR visibility mainly north and east of the fire
under breezy southwest winds ahead of the frontal system. Increasing
south to southwest winds this afternoon with local surface wind
gusts up around 30 kts over the Sierra Cascade ridges through
early Thursday. South to southwest winds Sacramento valley and
Delta gusting to 20 to 25 knots this afternoon and tonight.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
red flag warning until 8 pm pdt this evening burney basin /
eastern shasta county...west slope northern sierra nevada...
western plumas county/lassen park.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1056 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE OFF DELAWARE BAY WILL PASS OFFSHORE OF
NANTUCKET AND OUT TO SEA FRIDAY. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS BENEATH
HIGH PRESSURE PERSIST FOR THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. UNLESS THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIDWEEK WET WEATHER CREEPING UP FROM THE
SOUTH...LOOKING LIKE A PROLONGED DRY FORECAST INTO THE END OF
SEPTEMBER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
RAINFALL FINALLY MAKING IT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
NORTHERNMOST EXTENT LOOKS TO BE THE I-90 CORRIDOR. THE LATEST RUNS
FROM THE HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT.
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POP BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO BRING NEAR-TERM CONDITIONS BACK
IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE PERSISTS INTO MORNING AROUND WHICH THE
PARENT COASTAL LOW WELL SE OF NEW ENGLAND ISENTROPICALLY WRAPS
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION BENEATH SOME FAVORABLE JET
DYNAMICS ALOFT /LFQ/. SO DEEP-LAYER ASCENT CONTINUES LENDING TO
WIDESPREAD RAIN IMPACTING THE S-TIER OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.
BUT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR PERSISTS N AS NOTED BY THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER WITH OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS ENTRENCHED INTO N MA.
RAIN REMAINS S OF THE MA-PIKE. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL CONCENTRATE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST WITH 1-INCH PLUS AMOUNTS FORECAST.
HEAVIER BANDING TOWARDS THE NW-QUAD OF THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK MID-LEVEL TROWALING COULD LEND TO LOCALLY HIGH AMOUNTS ACROSS
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND /NOTING ACTIVITY PRESENTLY ACROSS CT/.
E/NE-WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG THE S-COAST ESPECIALLY OVER THE
S-WATERS AND ISLANDS. NOTING THE 7- TO 8-SECOND PERIOD ALONG WITH
A SWELL FROM A S-DIRECTION...WHILE WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 7 FEET ARE
FORECAST ALONG THE S-FACING SHORES...WILL CONTINUE WITH MODERATE
RIP-CURRENT RISK AS FORECAST. SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE OVER
THE WATERS WITH ONGOING SEAS ABOVE 5-FEET AND WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING
25 KTS AT TIMES.
MID-LEVEL ENERGY PUSHES SE TOWARDS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIGHT WINDS BUILD BACK TO THE S ALLOWING FOR A WINDOW OF CLEARING
TO THE REAR OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. NOTING DEWPOINTS AROUND THE
50-DEGREE MARK DURING MAX-HEATING EARLIER TODAY...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CT- AND MERRIMACK-RIVER
VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE E/SE INTERIOR MA...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN
HAS FALLEN. COULD SEE VISIBILITIES BELOW 2 MILES MAKING FOR
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS TOWARDS MORNING. BE SURE TO TAKE IT
SLOW WHEN ENCOUNTERING FOG.
POINTED OUT ABOVE...THE PERIOD OF CLEARING WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL
MAKE FOR AREAS OF EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. COULD SEE LOWS
INTO THE MID-40S FOR INTERIOR LOCALES SUCH AS N MA AND S NH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COULD BE SOME LINGERING SPRINKLES OVER CAPE COD AND ISLANDS FIRST
THING IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW
ENGLAND SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS WILL MEAN SUNSHINE AND DRY AIR.
HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WILL MEAN A TREND
TOWARD WARMER TEMPS. CERTAINLY FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY
JUST ON GENERAL PRINCIPLE...THERE WILL BE SOME SUNSHINE. A MIXING
LAYER TO 900 MB AND TEMPS 13-14C AT THAT LEVEL WILL SUPPORT MAX
SFC TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. A NORTHEAST PREVAILING WIND
SHOULD KEEP THE MASS EAST COAST AND THIS ISLANDS A LITTLE
COOLER...65 TO 70.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MEAN RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEW POINTS UPPER 40S AND AROUND 50 WILL ALLOW THE NORMAL
COLD SPOTS TO REACH 45-50 WHILE COASTAL AREAS ARE 50-55. THIS WILL
ALSO ALLOW LOCALLY DENSE VALLEY FOG TO AGAIN FORM OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...
- DRY AND WARM WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND
- COLD FRONT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY
- MONITORING OFFSHORE ACTIVITY DURING MIDWEEK
- CONCERN OVER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...
DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. RIDGE DEAMPLIFICATION
OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWS A WEAK TROUGH INTRUSION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION WITH LITTLE SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS BETTER LIFT AND DYNAMICS STRETCH WELL NE OF THE REGION
AS FLOW WITHIN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS IS WEAK AND NEARLY-PARALLEL TO
THE FRONT. EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. COOLEST AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS CENTERED AROUND TUESDAY MORNING...YET WITH MEAN H85 VALUES
AROUND +10C /+5-10C ANOMALY/ OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING EVEN DURING PERIODS OF EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
AS THE FRONT STALLS WELL S OF THE REGION...WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR TROPICAL ENERGY POTENTIALLY MERGING WITH ENERGY FROM THE
PACIFIC AND POSSIBLY EVOLVING AS A COASTAL LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
TOWARDS MIDWEEK. REARWARD BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TOWARDS THE N/E...A
SIMILAR SETUP AS TO TODAY MAY TAKE SHAPE WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINS TO
THE S ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING BREEZY E-WINDS CONTINUING INTO THE
LATE WEEK PERIOD AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED S OFFSHORE.
TOWARDS LATE WEEK...NAO/AO TRENDS REMAIN POSITIVE TO A NEAR-NEUTRAL
STATE WITH CONTINUED WOBBLE WITHIN THE PNA FORECAST ALONG WITH A
CONTINUED WEAK-POSITIVE PDO. EXPECT AN ANOMALOUS S GREENLAND LOW TO
PERSIST WITH ADJACENT UPSTREAM RIDGING...THUS A RETURN OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE FORECAST AREA AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. YET
FURTHER W...JOSTLING OF THE E-PACIFIC RIDGE / W-CONUS TROUGHING
COULD POSSIBLY SHIFT DOWNSTREAM PATTERNS E. UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
LONG HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS...BUT AGREE WITH THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY FORECAST INTO OCTOBER OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES /AT LEAST 60% CONFIDENCE/.
ONE FINAL NOTE...IF THE ABOVE FORECAST COMES TO FRUITION AND THE
MIDWEEK RAIN POTENTIAL IS KEPT S BY HIGH PRESSURE...THE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER COULD POTENTIALLY ENHANCE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
SHOULD S/E AREAS OF S NEW ENGLAND NOT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAIN
TODAY.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS OVER DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS.
THOUGH THE 25.12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF ARE REASONABLE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THEY HAVE EXHIBITED POOR-HANDLING OF POTENTIALLY
MERGING PACIFIC- AND TROPICAL-WAVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SUBSEQUENT COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT BY MIDWEEK...BOTH IN COMPARISON
AS WELL AS RUN-TO-RUN...AND THIS LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHICH
SOLUTION IS PREFERRED.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...
RAIN PERSISTING OVERNIGHT AND TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MORNING. SOME
MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH +RA. OTHERWISE MVFR/IFR CIGS
FOR THE S-COAST THROUGH MORNING WITH VFR AND CLEARING CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. PATCHY IFR-VLIFR FOG POSSIBLE FOR TERMINALS WITHIN THE
CT- AND MERRIMACK- RIVER VALLEYS AS WELL AS INTERIOR E/SE MA.
VSBYS OF 1/2 SM OR LESS WITH VV002 POSSIBLE. E/NE WINDS BACKING N
WHILE REMAINING STRONG OVER THE S/SE COASTLINE TERMINALS WITH
GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS.
FRIDAY...
CLEARING. IMPROVING TO VFR. ANY MORNING FOG QUICKLY DISSIPATES.
NE-WIND 5-15 KNOTS. GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVER SE-TERMINALS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...
VFR. LIGHT AND VRB WINDS. LOCALLY DENSE FOG ANTICIPATED. WITH ANY
FOG 1/2 SM OR LESS WITH VV002 POSSIBLE.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LIGHT WINDS. SEA-
BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES.
MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. COLD FRONT MONDAY MORNING. WINDS
SHIFT N/NE BLUSTERY ALONG THE E-COAST. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA.
TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NE FLOW BECOMING VRB LATE.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CANCELLED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NARRAGANSETT BAY...AS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 25 KT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SEAS SUSTAINING OVER THE S-WATERS WITH OBSERVED BUOY REPORTS
AROUND 8-9 FEET. EXPECT WAVES UNDER BLUSTERY E/NE WINDS BACKING
OUT OF THE N TO PERSIST TOWARDS MORNING. GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS
ARE ANTICIPATED...POSSIBLY UP TO 30 KTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
CONTINUE.
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISKS ALONG THE S-FACING BEACHES AS A
S SWELL WITH A 7- TO 8-SECOND PERIOD PERSISTS. RAIN WILL BE AN
ISSUE TOWARDS MORNING...WIDESPREAD...HEAVY AT TIMES...LIKELY TO
RESULT IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES DOWN TO A MILE OR LESS.
FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT TO SEA. WINDS AND SEAS ON
THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL LINGER AT 25-30 KNOTS AND 5-8 FEET
DURING THE MORNING AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND EARLY AND
OVER THE WATERS DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GOOD BOATING WEATHER AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE SW. WINDS AND SEAS
BELOW SMALL-CRAFT THRESHOLDS.
MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS AROUND
MIDDAY. WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE N INCREASING TOWARDS EVENING. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SEAS UP TO 5 FEET POSSIBLE ON THE E OUTER WATERS.
TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. E/NE WINDS CONTINUED BLUSTERY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. THIS COULD RESULT IN SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS UP
TO 5-FEET.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...WTB/BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
724 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE EAST THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES NORTH UP THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL DRIFT OUT
TO SEA FRIDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STLT INDICATES HIGH CLOUDS JUST OFF THE S SHORE OF LI SPREADING
RAPIDLY NWD. COMBINED WITH THE HRRR IT SPELLS A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY.
HAVE UPDATED THE FCST ACCORDINGLY.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST TODAY...ALLOWING FOR
INCREASING HIGH THEN MID CLOUDS FROM SW TO NE...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON. APPEARS THAT WILL NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.
FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 925 TO 875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES ON
EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
GFS IS A CLEAR OUTLIER IN HOW FAR EAST/PROGRESSIVE WITH LOW TO MID
LEVEL TROUGH. THUS HAVE DISCARDED GFS DURING THIS TIME FRAME IN
FAVOR OF A BLEND OF MORE OVERALL CONSISTENT NAM/SREF/ECMWF/CMC.
THE NAM LIKELY IS UP TO ITS OLD TRICK OF BEING TOO SLOW WITH THE
ONSET OF OVERRUNNING RAIN...SO HAVE GONE WITH A FASTER ONSET TIME
THAN THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST - CLOSER TO A CMC/ECMWF/SREF BLEND.
APPEARS RAIN DEVELOPS FROM SW TO NE TONIGHT...POSSIBLY BECOMING
LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...BEFORE TAPERING
OFF THURSDAY NIGHT FROM W TO E. PLEASE SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION
OF THE AFD FOR FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS.
WILL SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTY E-NE WINDS FROM TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH COASTAL AREAS SEEING GUSTS OF 30 TO POSSIBLY
35 MPH AT TIMES FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE
PERSISTENT STRONG E-NE FLOW WILL CAUSE SOME ISSUES WITH COASTAL
FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION. REFER TO THE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS. THE ROUGH SURF AND E-NE FLOW WILL
ALSO RESULT IN A MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON
THURSDAY.
FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES - WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...EXCEPT NEAR NORMAL IN THE NYC HEAT ISLAND.
FOR HIGHS THURSDAY A BLEND OF 2 PARTS EACH MIXING DOWN FROM 975
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS/NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES/MET GUIDANCE
WITH 1 PART MAV GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
USED A BLEND OF 2 PARTS EACH MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND 1 PART MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT -
WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE NYC HEAT
ISLAND...AND AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FRI-TUE. THIS DATA
WAS INCORPORATED INTO THE OFFICIAL FCST...RESULTING IN ONLY MINOR
CHANGES.
THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING THE H5 TROUGH
THROUGH THE CWA BY FRI AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS EVEN QUICKER. AS A
RESULT...ANY LINGERING RAIN FRI MORNING WOULD QUICKLY EXIT. THE
NAM IS A SLOWER SOLN...BUT AT THIS TIME RANGE THE GFS/ECMWF PROGS
ARE FAVORED. WEAK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ACROSS ERN
CT/LI COOLER DUE TO THE ATLANTIC SOURCE REGION.
DRY WX SAT-SUN WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION. H85 TEMPS IN THE
13-14C RANGE SHOULD YIELD LOWER 80S W AND INTERIOR AND 70S COASTS.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM POSSIBLE FOR MON-TUE. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
DO DIVERGE SLIGHTLY FOR THIS PERIOD. THE GFS BRINGS SOME WEAK WAA
ALOFT AND SHOWERS MON NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT TUE. THE ECMWF HAS
NO WAA PRECIPITATION AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT WHICH COMES THROUGH LATE MON. WILL NOT JUMP ON THE FASTER
AND DRIER ECMWF SOLN YET...AND MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR MON NIGHT
AND TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WIT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TODAY. WIND BECOMES
EASTERLY AROUND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT THIS
EVENING. COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF LIGHTER GUSTS/WINDS 00Z-03Z
THURSDAY BUT TOO LOW CONFIDENCE TO ADD ANYTHING TO TAFS. TIMING OF
THE INCREASING WIND GUSTS COULD CHANGE BASED ON THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST TONIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING WED NIGHT
TO AROUND 2-3K FT. RAIN CHANCES START LATE TONIGHT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE TODAY.
TIMING OF HIGHEST GUSTS COULD BE +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE IN MOD RAIN AFTER 06Z THU.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OFF HIGHEST GUSTS COULD BE +/- AN HOUR
OR TWO.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE TODAY.
TIMING OF HIGHEST GUSTS COULD BE +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE IN MOD RAIN AFTER 06Z THU.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF HIGHEST GUSTS COULD BE +/- AN HOUR
OR TWO.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF HIGHEST GUSTS COULD BE +/- AN HOUR
OR TWO.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD BE A FEW KT STRONGER THAN FORECAST
THIS EVENING IF THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS MORE THAN
FORECAST...GUSTS UP TO 25KT POSSIBLE. TIMING OF HIGHEST GUSTS COULD
BE +/- AN HOUR OR TWO.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED NIGHT-THURS...LOW PRES TRACKS UP THE COAST. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WITH RAIN. NE FLOW 10-15G20-25KT.
.FRI...BECOMING VFR WITH N WINDS 10-15KT G 15-20KT.
.SAT-SUN...VFR WITH LGT WINDS LIKELY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS INCREASE TODAY...WITH SMALL CRAFT GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS THEN DEVELOP ON ALL
WATERS TONIGHT. IT APPEARS THERE IS AT LEAST A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
THURSDAY...WITH CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT GUSTS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE WATERS. THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AND PUT UP A GALE WATCH THERE ON THURSDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WATERS HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.
IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT SMALL CRAFT GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ON ALL
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE HIGH
ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AT THIS TIME.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN WATERS AND FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN
WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN FCST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS
SAT-TUE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SIX-TENTHS TO 1 AND TWO-THIRDS INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...UP TO 3 INCHES OR SO POSSIBLE. THE LOWER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND THE HIGHEST
OVER EASTER LONG ISLAND. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
EXACTLY HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL AND WHERE ANY BANDING WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA...IF ANY. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE MOST LIKELY
IMPACT FROM THIS RAIN WILL BE MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE/URBAN AREAS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING...BUT THIS THREAT IS TOO LOW TO PLACE IN THE HWO AT THIS
TIME.
BASIN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
DUE TO THE DEPARTING LOW...AND AGAIN IN THE LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME
FRAME WITH A WEAK FRONT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW FROM TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH A NEW MOON WEDNESDAY...WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE THREAT IS
HIGHEST...MAINLY ALONG VULNERABLE AREAS IN LOWER NY HARBOR...BACK
BAYS OF SOUTHERN NYC/WESTERN LONG ISLAND...AND ALONG WESTERN LONG
ISLAND SOUND.
MINOR BEACH EROSION WILL BE LIKELY WITH A 2 DAY DURATION OF ROUGH
SURF SWEEPING ALONGSHORE FROM EAST TO WEST...FROM TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1138 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
COASTAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH AGAIN AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
EVENING WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC
SPIN FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST PA. MEANWHILE, A WEAK (1019
MB) COASTAL LOW WAS LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE DE BAY ON
THE 01Z SFC ANALYSIS. THE BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED
CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS OVER THE AREA AS NORTHERLY FLOW
ADVECT DRIER AIR AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND SUBSIDENCE
BUILDS IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW.
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS HAVE ALREADY ERODED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. CLEARING SKIES
AND A WEAKER GRADIENT WIND WILL YIELD A MUCH BETTER SETUP FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY THAN ALONG
THE COAST (WHERE NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT). ACCORDINGLY, A DECENT THERMAL GRADIENT IS FORECAST
OVERNIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE POCONOS
TO NEAR 60F ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A MUCH NICER FRIDAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. WITH MORE
SUNSHINE WE SHOULD BE EASILY ABLE TO SURPASS THE SUGGESTED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY THE MET. HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID 70`S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. USING THE ECMWF MODELED 925/850 MB
TEMPS EXTRAPOLATED TO THE SURFACE YIELDS SIMILAR RESULTS. NO POPS
FOR THIS PERIOD. BOTH THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS WERE USED FOR
WINDS, WHICH SHOULD BE FROM THE NORTH AT ABOUT 10 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FCST STARTS OUT DRY AND QUITE WARM FOR EARLY FALL AS
HIGH PRES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION. DRY WX IS
EXPECTED THRU THE WEEKEND AND TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NRML INTO MON, THOUGH IT WILL BE NICE WITH PLEASANT
HUMIDITY VALUES.
A WEAK CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MON.
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BACK TO THE N OVER ERN CANADA BEHIND THE CFP
AND RIDGE DOWN OVER THE NERN STATES/MID-ATLC. AT THE SAME TIME,
THE GUID TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER CSTL LOW OFF THE CAROLINA CST.
CURRENT GUID KEEPS THIS LOW FURTHER OFF THE CST, WITH LESSER
IMPACT (IF ANY) THAN THIS WEEK`S LOW, BUT STAY TUNED. HOWEVER, AS
THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ELY BY TUE INTO WED, THERE WILL BE AT LEAST
A CHC OF SOME PRECIP OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE MDLS DIFFER A
BIT ON THE DETAILS, WITH THE GFS BEING MAINLY DRY ON TUE, EXCEPT
FOR SOME SCT PRECIP ACRS THE N AND THE ECMWF BEING WETTER...BUT
ACRS THE S.
ON THE OTHER HAND, THE GFS IS WETTER ON WED THAN THE ECMWF, WHICH
IS ESSENTIALLY DRY DURG THIS PD. SO FOR NOW, WILL JUST CARRY SOME
LOW POPS DURG THESE PDS AND WAIT FOR A BIT MORE CONTINUITY, AS
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE ERODED ALONG MOST OF THE COAST LEAVING ALL THE
TERMINALS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. DUE TO THE EARLIER DISSIPATION OF
CLOUDS, THERE IS NOW A SMALL THREAT OF BR DEVELOPMENT WHICH HAS
ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED AT KSMQ IN NORTHERN NJ. HOWEVER, WITH THE
DRIER AIR MOVING IN, DO NOT EXPECT BR TO BE WIDESPREAD, SO HAVE
NOT INCLUDED IT IN ANY OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
SURFACE NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE DECREASED. AT THE SAME TIME, VAD WIND
PROFILE FROM KDIX SHOWS PERSISTENT 35KT WINDS AT 1000 FT AGL. FOR
NOW, DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN LLWS AS THE STRONGER WINDS
SHOULD BE OVER EASTERN NJ, WHERE SURFACE WINDS ARE STILL NEAR
10KT. FOR KABE AND KRDG WHERE CONDITIONS ARE CALM, HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW LOW LEVEL WINDS ONLY AS HIGH
AS 25KT. IN ADDITION, THE LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE LOW LIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. WILL
WATCH THIS CLOSELY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HOWEVER.
VFR ON FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-SUN...HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE AND EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL,
EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG WHICH WILL BE PSBL AT NIGHT AND EARLY
MRNG HOURS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MAINLY VFR. A MORE E TO SELY FLOW SUN NIGHT
INTO MON COULD BRING A BETTER THREAT OF MVFR ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SERN SITES. WK FROPA ON MON. MDT CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE STEADILY DIMINISHED THIS EVE AND ARE NOW BELOW SCA
LEVELS AT MOST COASTAL SITES. HOWEVER, SEAS ARE STILL VERY HIGH
WITH WAVES 7-9 FT BEING OBSERVED AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS. SCA WAS
CANCELLED FOR THE UPPER DE BAY AND WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE
CANCELLED FOR THE LOWER DE BAY SOMETIME DURING OVERNIGHT.
SCA CONTINUES FOR THE OCEAN ZONES ON FRIDAY WITH SEAS STILL 5 TO 8
FT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLD.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SCA CONDS WILL CONTINUE FOR SEAS, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE SRN WATERS.
SAT NIGHT-MON...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED DURG THIS PERIOD.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE MORE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MADE US REVISIT THE COASTAL
FLOODING POTENTIAL WITH THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. GUIDANCE AND OUR
LOCAL PROCEDURES ARE STILL KEEPING DEPARTURES AT AROUND 1.0 TO 1.5
FEET ON THE OCEAN FRONT. THE TIDAL ANOMALIES GOING INTO THIS LOW
TIDE CYCLE ARE SIMILAR TO EARLIER TODAY (ABOUT 1.0 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL). GIVEN THE DEPARTURES TYPICALLY DECREASE TOWARD HIGH TIDE
AND WE HAVE AN EXTRA HALF FOOT (LOWER ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT) AS A BUFFER, WE ARE NOT PREDICTING TIDES TO REACH MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING CRITERIA.
IN THE BACK BAYS, WE HAVE NOT REACHED CLOSE TO LOW TIDE AS OF YET.
THE LOOK THOUGH IS WE WILL PBLY BOTTOM HIGHER. BUT, WE WONT HAVE THE
HEAVY RAIN DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE AND THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS
LOWER. WE WILL MONITOR THE GAGES, BUT THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR
LESS OF AN IMPACT THAN THIS MORNING.
THE ONSHORE TIDAL/EKMAN FLOW CONTINUES ON FRIDAY. THE OVERALL
GRADIENT THOUGH SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY. NOT A GREAT DRAINING
FLOW, BUT CONSENSUS GUIDANCE IS KEEPING US JUST BELOW MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING CRITERIA.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BE IMPROVING, A MODERATE RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. MODERATE RIPS
MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GIGI/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GIGI
RIP CURRENTS...KLEIN/JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
322 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING AWAY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA NEXT MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW MAY APPROACH THE
REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING.
WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION TIMING THE RGEM AND HRRR ARE DOING OK
TODAY AND HAVE LEANED ON THEM FOR A ROUGH OUTLINE ON THE
PRECIPITATION STARTING TIMES. OVERALL NOT IMPRESSED WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL, THIS LOOKS MORE LIKE A
NICE STEADY MODERATE RAIN. WENT WITH THE LOWER QPF (.75-2 INCHES)
REPRESENTED WELL BY THE SREF FOR STORM TOTALS. THE OVERALL 500MB
HEIGHT PATTERN THIS MORNING SHOWED THE LOW MAY BE MODELED TO FAR
WEST AND THE 12Z MODEL RUNS ON CORRECTED EAST FURTHER OFFSHORE, ANOTHER
INDICATOR IT WILL BE HARD TO GET WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 2
INCHES. FOR TEMPERATURES THEY MAY BE RATHER STEADY AFTER SOME
FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE EVENING AS CLOUDS AND RAIN MOVE IN. WENT
ABOVE MET/MAV GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES AS WELL IN THE 60`S SOUTH
AND 50`S NORTH. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A GUSTY NIGHT AS WELL WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS FROM 10-15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS FROM 20-25 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A DREARY DAY IS IN STORE THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TO OUR NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, LINGERING LIGHT RAIN, DRIZZLE
AND FOG ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE. WE MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH
MAV/MET GUIDANCE VALUES IN THE 60`S PERHAPS NOT HITTING 60 IN THE
POCONOS GIVEN THE LOW CLOUDS. USED TWO METER TEMPERATURES OFF THE
ECMWF IN ADDITION TO THESE GUIDANCE SETS ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AFTER THE LOW PRESSURE PASSAGE BUT
STILL BE STRONG AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
USED THE RFC QPF IN THIS PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION IN THE NEAR
AND SHORT TERM PERIODS WILL LIKELY BE FROM .75-2 INCHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH AFFECTS THE WEATHER IN THE NEAR AND
SHORT TERM PARTS OF THE FORECAST WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY EVENING THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO NORTH EAST INTO FRIDAY.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE EXITING EAST THURSDAY NIGHT SO JUST
SOME CHC POPS ARE IN THE FCST FOR THEN...TAPERING OFF WEST TO SLGT
CHC ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND BERKS COUNTY.
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM LATER FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SETTLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
LATER SUNDAY. THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN MOST AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 50S NORTH AND WEST AND THE UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TUE-WED. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE GFS ARE SOWING
SOME SHOWERS WITH THESE SYSTEMS. WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE WPC OFFERED
POPS FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES FOR MON NIGHT INTO WED WILL
BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S AND
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE COAST CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER TONIGHT REACHING MVFR THRESHOLDS AROUND MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS RAIN WILL BECOME WILL HEAVIER BY SUNRISE POSSIBLY RESULTING
SOME IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 700 AND 1000 FT. A NORTHEAST WIND BETWEEN
50 AND 80 DEGREES AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS,
PERHAPS 25 KNOTS FOR ACY/MIV AND COASTAL REGIONS.
ON THURSDAY THE LOW WILL DEPART. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE HEAVIER
AND STEADIER RAIN ENDING DURING THE MORNING BUT LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AS A RESULT
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BE MVFR OR EVEN HIGH END IFR BETWEEN 700 AND
1000 FEET THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS MAY SHIFT TO MORE
NORTHERLY AS COMPARED TO TONIGHT AROUND 20-40 DEGREES WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 10-15 KNOTS AND HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.
OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR AND SHOWERS
EARLY...MOSTLY EAST.
FRI THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. PATCHY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO MARINE HEADLINES. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE KNOCKING
ON OUR SOUTHERN WATERS DOOR. THIS PERIOD OF GALES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTH TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE LOW LEVEL JET. SEAS OVERALL ARE
VERIFYING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN WAVE WATCH AND WE BUMPED THE GUIDANCE
UP THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH TONIGHT, SO WE CONTINUED THE
ENDING OF GALES SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN UPPER DELAWARE BAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THOUGH SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND OCEAN.
ON THURSDAY, GALE FORCE GUSTS SHOULD BE ENDING NORTHERN ATLANTIC
WATERS EARLY, BUT THEN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
CONTINUE ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN UPPER DELAWARE BAY. IN THE
LOWER DELAWARE BAY, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SEAS MIGHT BE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY EARLY, BUT THEY SHOULD
SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU EARLY SATURDAY...SCA FLAG WILL CONTINUE FOR
AGITATED SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BACK BELOW
SCA CRITERIA DURING FRIDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE MORNING HIGH TIDE SOUTH CAME IN ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE AND WAS
ABOUT A HALF OF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. ON THE OTHER END, THE ESTOFS
SURGE GUIDANCE IS BRINGING DEPARTURES OF GREATER TWO FEET INTO
DELAWARE BAY. THIS IS RUNNING HOT.
LATEST CONSENSUS AND IN HOUSE GUIDANCE SUGGEST ADDING ANOTHER FOOT
TO THOSE DEPARTURES SOUTH FOR THIS EVENING. THIS WOULD GET US RIGHT
AROUND THE THRESHOLD FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. BUT GIVEN THE GALE
FORCE ONSHORE FLOW THINK CONSENSUS WILL VERIFY TOO LOW. PLUS WE HAVE
THE ADDITION OF WAVE ACTION AND LIKELY RAIN DURING THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE TO COMPOUND THE PROBLEM. WE ARE GOING TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY SOUTH OF GREAT EGG INLET NJ FOR CAPE MAY AND CUMBERLAND
COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY AND KENT AND SUSSEX COUNTIES IN DELAWARE.
FARTHER NORTH THE DURATION OF THE ONSHORE FLOW IS LESS AND SURFACE
PRESSURE HIGHER, SO NO ADVISORY FOR THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
THEN WE WILL FLIP THE ADVISORY LOCATION FOR THE SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDE
CYCLE ON THURSDAY MORNING AND ISSUE ONE FROM ATLANTIC COUNTY NORTH
THROUGH MIDDLESEX COUNTY NJ. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE THE STRONGEST
AND MOST PERSISTENT THERE. WHILE THE GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY
CONSERVATIVE, OUR LOCAL IN HOUSE PROCEDURE IS TAKING SANDY HOOK
PRETTY CLOSE TO THE THRESHOLD FOR MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING. SOUTH OF
ATLANTIC COUNTY, WE WILL MONITOR AS ANY SLOWING IN THE RELAXATION OF
THE GRADIENT MIGHT CAUSE ADDITIONAL TIDAL FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE
ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS, BUT DOES NOT ABATE.
THE SAME THINKING HOLDS FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THE
ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAKER, BUT NOT GONE. THE BASELINE WILL BE HIGHER,
BUT ASTRONOMICAL TIDES LOWER. THIS MAY BE A CASE WHERE WE REACH THE
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING THRESHOLD, BUT NOT ADVISORY LEVEL THRESHOLD.
GIVEN THE LOWER CONFIDENCE, WE WILL NOT EXTEND ANY ADVISORIES
THROUGH THAT HIGH TIDE CYCLE. MOST SUSCEPTIBLE LOCATIONS WOULD BE
NORTHERN COASTAL NEW JERSEY.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES AND THE NJ
SHORE IS HIGH THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONCURRENTLY WE WILL BE ISSUING
A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING SOUTH AND
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY NORTH.
ALSO FOR TOMORROW, AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
EXPECTED. EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BE IMPROVING ON
FRIDAY, AN ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NJZ014-
025-026.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
FOR NJZ014-025-026.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
NJZ012>014-020-022-025>027.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY
FOR NJZ024.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR NJZ021-023-024.
DE...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY
FOR DEZ004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ450>452.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-453>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI
SHORT TERM...GAINES/GIGI
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GIGI
RIP CURRENTS...GIGI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
358 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SHALLOW COOL FRONT HAS REMAINED ANCHORED ACROSS SRN ZONES AND HAS
NOT MOVED NORTH OR ERODED AS MUCH AS 00 AND 06Z MODELS DEPICTED PARTLY
WITH HELP OF A TRAPPED STRATUS DECK WHICH NEVER ERODED ACROSS THE
NATURE COAST. POOR LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH HIGH
CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS SOME SUBSIDENCE ON BACKSIDE OF A
DISTURBANCE MVG NORTH ACROSS THE GULF STREAM ALSO COMBINED TO
LIMIT CONVECTION TODAY...HOWEVER SOME HEATING LATE AND PRESENCE OF
THE SFC BOUNDARY HAVE PRODUCED SCT SHRA AND A FEW TSTMS ACROSS
SRN ZONES. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS NRN AREAS HAVE TRIMMED POPS OUT OF NRN COS COMPLETELY
TONIGHT AND LOWERED POPS IN OFFSHORE WATERS AND FAR SRN AREAS AS
WELL. THIS WAS ALSO SUPPORTED BY LATEST LOCAL WRF AND HRRR RUNS.
SEVERAL BOUNDARIES COMING TOGETHER WILL PROVIDE BEST FOCUS ACROSS
THE TAMPA BAY AREA THIS EVENING.
MORE FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT IS ANTICIPATED FOR TOMORROW
AS THE SFC BOUNDARY AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE NW. IN FACT
MODELS AGREE PWS WILL APPROACH 2.25 INCHES BY AFTN AS A WEAK ERLY
WAVE USHERS A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND
WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REACH LEE
COUNTY BY LATE AFTN. THIS WILL PROVIDE HIGH POPS INTO LIKELY RANGE
FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE REGION (ROUGHLY AREAS S OF I4) WHERE
HIGHEST MOISTURE EXISTS. GRADIENT IN MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE LOWER CHCS ACROSS THE NORTH AND SHOW CHCS TAPERING DOWN TO
AROUND 30 IN FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT MORE THAN TODAYS
VALUES WILL HIGHS CLOSER TO 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGH MOISTURE
AMOUNTS COULD LEAD TO SOME HEAVY TROPICAL DONWPOURS AND ISOLATED
2-3" RAINFALL TOTALS.
&&
.AVIATION...NE FLOW COMBINED WITH SHALLOW COOL FRONT AND ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
STRATUS OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH PERHAPS MORE CONFINED TO NRN TAF SITES
(SRQ NORTHWARD). AVN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IFR CIGS SPREADING FROM NE
TO SW ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MID MORNING. SOME LINGERING MVFR CU IS EXPECTED UNTIL
EARLY AFTN AS WELL. RAIN CHCS WILL BE HIGHER TOMORROW WITH GREATER
CHC OF TAF SITES BEING IMPACTED BY SHRA AND TSTMS. HIGHEST CHCS
WILL BE AFTER 18Z.
&&
.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH A TRAILING
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL MAINTAIN A 3-4MB GRADIENT
WITH AN ELEVATED NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OFFSHORE GULF WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...WHERE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL BE POSTED
WITH WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE...AND
SOUTHERN MOST WATERS.
DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEEPEN SOME OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST
SOUTH OF THE NEW ENGLAND AS ANOTHER AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER EASTERN SEA BOARD. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY THE GRADIENT
WILL RELAX WITH A LIGHTER EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH AN ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL TURN WINDS INTO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST NORTHEAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY WITH HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE STORMS.
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT - NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE PENINSULA LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...KEEPING
A MORE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WILL LIFT INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST REGION OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
THEN SLOWLY SHIFT BACK SOUTHWARD AND INTO CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
PENINSULA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...THE AREA REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED WITHIN
THE RAINY SEASON THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIODS. PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 72 88 74 87 / 40 60 40 60
FMY 73 89 74 88 / 30 70 40 70
GIF 72 88 73 88 / 20 60 20 60
SRQ 73 88 74 88 / 40 70 50 60
BKV 69 88 72 88 / 20 50 30 60
SPG 74 88 77 87 / 40 60 40 60
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...88/GITTINGER
LONG TERM...21/JELSEMA
MARINE...57/MCMICHAEL
DECISION SUPPORT...14/MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
145 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
.UPDATE...CLEARING IS TAKING PLACE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE PENINSULA WITH NO CU ON BACK SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL VORT OFF
THE MIAMI-DADE COAST. LOOKS AS THOUGH SUBSIDENCE IS WINNING OUT
TODAY, SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN TO 30% FOR THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS GLADES AND HENDRY
COUNTIES WHERE LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED. UPDATES WERE JUST
SENT. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 134 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014/
AVIATION...
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR HEATING TO OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN AREAS EARLIER THAN THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THEREFORE...THE VCTS WILL BE REMOVE FOR
THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AND REPLACE WITH VCSH FOR REST OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS A KPBI TAF SITE
WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AND COULD AFFECT THE KPBI TAF SITE. THEREFORE...VCTS WILL CONTINUE
FOR KPBI TAF SITE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH VCTS FOR
KAPF TAF SITE.
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AT ALL OF THE TAF STIES THIS AFTERNOON
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...EXCEPT KAPF TAF SITE WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSER
TO SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TRIES TO
DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND SLOWLY.
THE WINDS WILL THEN BE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS AT ALL
OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE STILL SOME SHOWERS AROUND TONIGHT
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SO WILL CONTINUE THE VCSH FOR ALL OF THE TAF
SITES FOR TONIGHT.
THE CEILING AND VIS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES.
AVIATION...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014/
UPDATE...FALL ARRIVED 2 DAYS AGO AND IS BEING FELT ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA BUT NOT SO FAST HERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA. A SURFACE FRONT
BISECTS THE STATE WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 59F AT
TALLAHASSEE TO 75F AT MIAMI. THE 12Z MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWS A
CONTINUED MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE WITH PW AT 2.06 INCHES.
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING WAS
AIDED BY A MID LEVEL VORT AND THIS FEATURE IS NOW EVEN SHOWING UP
IN KAMX REFLECTIVITY DATA WITH A SPIN SEEN OFF THE UPPER KEYS.
THIS WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD BUT THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDINESS HAS SO
FAR LIMITED CONVECTION OVER LAND. THE CLOUDS ARE THINNING AND AS
THE VORT LIFTS NORTH, SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR ASSOCIATED WITH
SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE. EVEN DESPITE SOME
SUBSIDENCE...GIVEN A MOIST AND TYPICALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE,
AM STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AS SUCH, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING, EXCEPT TO ADJUST THE NEAR TERM
WITH CURRENT AND FORECAST TRENDS. THE PRIMARY POTENTIAL IMPACT
TODAY WILL BE ISOLATED STREET FLOODING DUE TO POTENTIAL LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. /GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014/
AVIATION...
THE ATMOSPHERE IS UNSTABLE TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES. SO
WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING BEFORE GOING TO
VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITE. AT THIS
TIME...THE TEMPO GROUP WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE TAF SITES DUE TO THE
UNKNOWN TIMING OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ONCE THE
ACTIVITY GETS GOING...THEN WILL ADD THE TEMPO GROUP TO THE TAF
SITES.
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE EASTERLY DIRECTION AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES ALONG WITH THE CEILING AND VIS IN
THE VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...ONCE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GET GOING LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE VIS AND
CEILING WILL FALL INTO THE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY PASSAGE OF THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM.
AVIATION...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
ALONG WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS WILL CONTINUE A DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF
TROPICAL AIR ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE AND AT ANYTIME. THE HRRR WHICH TYPICALLY IS A
RELIABLE HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODEL HAS BEEN STRUGGLING THE
PAST TWO DAYS IN RAINFALL PATTERN SOLUTIONS. TONIGHT IS NO
EXCEPTION WHERE IT LACKS THE RECOGNITION OF ACTIVITY OVER THE
SURROUNDING WATERS. SO ONE CANNOT PLACE MUCH FAITH IN ITS
DEPICTION OF VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 12
TO 15 HOURS. IN SAYING THAT, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
CONTINUE IN THE 2+ INCH RANGE AND ALONG WITH INTERACTING
BOUNDARIES AND THE LARGE SYNOPTIC FEATURES LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT. THE LOW WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH ROTATES SOUTH
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE LOCATED
OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN WEST. AS THIS OCCURS, A RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WILL BUILD WEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SOME MID
LEVEL WARMING OCCURRING BUT COUNTERACTING THIS WILL BE A LARGE
PLUME OF MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ACROSS FLORIDA WITH PWAT VALUES REMAINING AT
2 INCHES OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. AS THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST, THE STEERING
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST-NORTHWEST SO THE HIGHEST POPS
COULD SHIFT TO THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BUT
WITH SUCH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT CONTINUING IT APPEARS THAT AT
LEAST HIGH END CHANCE OR EVEN LIKELY POPS WILL STILL BE IN ORDER
ALONG THE EAST COAST.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD, BUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WHICH WILL PLACE SOUTH FLORIDA
BACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINING
IN PLACE SO HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST.
MARINE...
A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO RATHER BENIGN SEAS WITH 2-3 FEET OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND 2 FEET OR LESS IN THE GULF.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 85 77 88 77 / 30 30 70 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 78 88 80 / 30 30 60 50
MIAMI 85 77 87 78 / 30 30 70 40
NAPLES 87 75 84 76 / 60 20 70 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
134 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
.AVIATION...
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR HEATING TO OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN AREAS EARLIER THAN THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THEREFORE...THE VCTS WILL BE REMOVE FOR
THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AND REPLACE WITH VCSH FOR REST OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS A KPBI TAF SITE
WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AND COULD AFFECT THE KPBI TAF SITE. THEREFORE...VCTS WILL CONTINUE
FOR KPBI TAF SITE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH VCTS FOR
KAPF TAF SITE.
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AT ALL OF THE TAF STIES THIS AFTERNOON
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...EXCEPT KAPF TAF SITE WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSER
TO SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TRIES TO
DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND SLOWLY.
THE WINDS WILL THEN BE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS AT ALL
OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE STILL SOME SHOWERS AROUND TONIGHT
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SO WILL CONTINUE THE VCSH FOR ALL OF THE TAF
SITES FOR TONIGHT.
THE CEILING AND VIS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES.
&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014/
UPDATE...FALL ARRIVED 2 DAYS AGO AND IS BEING FELT ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA BUT NOT SO FAST HERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA. A SURFACE FRONT
BISECTS THE STATE WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 59F AT
TALLAHASSEE TO 75F AT MIAMI. THE 12Z MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWS A
CONTINUED MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE WITH PW AT 2.06 INCHES.
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING WAS
AIDED BY A MID LEVEL VORT AND THIS FEATURE IS NOW EVEN SHOWING UP
IN KAMX REFLECTIVITY DATA WITH A SPIN SEEN OFF THE UPPER KEYS.
THIS WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD BUT THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDINESS HAS SO
FAR LIMITED CONVECTION OVER LAND. THE CLOUDS ARE THINNING AND AS
THE VORT LIFTS NORTH, SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR ASSOCIATED WITH
SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE. EVEN DESPITE SOME
SUBSIDENCE...GIVEN A MOIST AND TYPICALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE,
AM STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AS SUCH, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING, EXCEPT TO ADJUST THE NEAR TERM
WITH CURRENT AND FORECAST TRENDS. THE PRIMARY POTENTIAL IMPACT
TODAY WILL BE ISOLATED STREET FLOODING DUE TO POTENTIAL LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. /GREGORIA
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014/
AVIATION...
THE ATMOSPHERE IS UNSTABLE TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES. SO
WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING BEFORE GOING TO
VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITE. AT THIS
TIME...THE TEMPO GROUP WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE TAF SITES DUE TO THE
UNKNOWN TIMING OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ONCE THE
ACTIVITY GETS GOING...THEN WILL ADD THE TEMPO GROUP TO THE TAF
SITES.
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE EASTERLY DIRECTION AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES ALONG WITH THE CEILING AND VIS IN
THE VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...ONCE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GET GOING LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE VIS AND
CEILING WILL FALL INTO THE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY PASSAGE OF THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM.
&&
AVIATION...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
ALONG WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS WILL CONTINUE A DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF
TROPICAL AIR ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE AND AT ANYTIME. THE HRRR WHICH TYPICALLY IS A
RELIABLE HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODEL HAS BEEN STRUGGLING THE
PAST TWO DAYS IN RAINFALL PATTERN SOLUTIONS. TONIGHT IS NO
EXCEPTION WHERE IT LACKS THE RECOGNITION OF ACTIVITY OVER THE
SURROUNDING WATERS. SO ONE CANNOT PLACE MUCH FAITH IN ITS
DEPICTION OF VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 12
TO 15 HOURS. IN SAYING THAT, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
CONTINUE IN THE 2+ INCH RANGE AND ALONG WITH INTERACTING
BOUNDARIES AND THE LARGE SYNOPTIC FEATURES LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT. THE LOW WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH ROTATES SOUTH
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE LOCATED
OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN WEST. AS THIS OCCURS, A RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WILL BUILD WEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SOME MID
LEVEL WARMING OCCURRING BUT COUNTERACTING THIS WILL BE A LARGE
PLUME OF MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ACROSS FLORIDA WITH PWAT VALUES REMAINING AT
2 INCHES OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. AS THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST, THE STEERING
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST-NORTHWEST SO THE HIGHEST POPS
COULD SHIFT TO THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BUT
WITH SUCH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT CONTINUING IT APPEARS THAT AT
LEAST HIGH END CHANCE OR EVEN LIKELY POPS WILL STILL BE IN ORDER
ALONG THE EAST COAST.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD, BUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WHICH WILL PLACE SOUTH FLORIDA
BACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINING
IN PLACE SO HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST.
MARINE...
A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO RATHER BENIGN SEAS WITH 2-3 FEET OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND 2 FEET OR LESS IN THE GULF.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 77 88 77 89 / 30 70 50 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 88 80 88 / 30 60 50 40
MIAMI 77 87 78 88 / 30 70 40 60
NAPLES 75 84 76 87 / 20 70 40 80
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...54/BNB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1058 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
.UPDATE...FALL ARRIVED 2 DAYS AGO AND IS BEING FELT ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA BUT NOT SO FAST HERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA. A SURFACE FRONT
BISECTS THE STATE WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 59F AT
TALLAHASSEE TO 75F AT MIAMI. THE 12Z MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWS A
CONTINUED MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE WITH PW AT 2.06 INCHES.
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING WAS
AIDED BY A MID LEVEL VORT AND THIS FEATURE IS NOW EVEN SHOWING UP
IN KAMX REFLECTIVITY DATA WITH A SPIN SEEN OFF THE UPPER KEYS.
THIS WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD BUT THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDINESS HAS SO
FAR LIMITED CONVECTION OVER LAND. THE CLOUDS ARE THINNING AND AS
THE VORT LIFTS NORTH, SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR ASSOCIATED WITH
SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE. EVEN DESPITE SOME
SUBSIDENCE...GIVEN A MOIST AND TYPICALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE,
AM STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AS SUCH, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING, EXCEPT TO ADJUST THE NEAR TERM
WITH CURRENT AND FORECAST TRENDS. THE PRIMARY POTENTIAL IMPACT
TODAY WILL BE ISOLATED STREET FLOODING DUE TO POTENTIAL LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014/
AVIATION...
THE ATMOSPHERE IS UNSTABLE TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES. SO
WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING BEFORE GOING TO
VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITE. AT THIS
TIME...THE TEMPO GROUP WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE TAF SITES DUE TO THE
UNKNOWN TIMING OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ONCE THE
ACTIVITY GETS GOING...THEN WILL ADD THE TEMPO GROUP TO THE TAF
SITES.
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE EASTERLY DIRECTION AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES ALONG WITH THE CEILING AND VIS IN
THE VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...ONCE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GET GOING LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE VIS AND
CEILING WILL FALL INTO THE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY PASSAGE OF THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM.
AVIATION...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
ALONG WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS WILL CONTINUE A DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF
TROPICAL AIR ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE AND AT ANYTIME. THE HRRR WHICH TYPICALLY IS A
RELIABLE HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODEL HAS BEEN STRUGGLING THE
PAST TWO DAYS IN RAINFALL PATTERN SOLUTIONS. TONIGHT IS NO
EXCEPTION WHERE IT LACKS THE RECOGNITION OF ACTIVITY OVER THE
SURROUNDING WATERS. SO ONE CANNOT PLACE MUCH FAITH IN ITS
DEPICTION OF VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 12
TO 15 HOURS. IN SAYING THAT, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
CONTINUE IN THE 2+ INCH RANGE AND ALONG WITH INTERACTING
BOUNDARIES AND THE LARGE SYNOPTIC FEATURES LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT. THE LOW WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH ROTATES SOUTH
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE LOCATED
OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN WEST. AS THIS OCCURS, A RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WILL BUILD WEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SOME MID
LEVEL WARMING OCCURRING BUT COUNTERACTING THIS WILL BE A LARGE
PLUME OF MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ACROSS FLORIDA WITH PWAT VALUES REMAINING AT
2 INCHES OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. AS THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST, THE STEERING
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST-NORTHWEST SO THE HIGHEST POPS
COULD SHIFT TO THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BUT
WITH SUCH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT CONTINUING IT APPEARS THAT AT
LEAST HIGH END CHANCE OR EVEN LIKELY POPS WILL STILL BE IN ORDER
ALONG THE EAST COAST.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD, BUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WHICH WILL PLACE SOUTH FLORIDA
BACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINING
IN PLACE SO HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST.
MARINE...
A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO RATHER BENIGN SEAS WITH 2-3 FEET OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND 2 FEET OR LESS IN THE GULF.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 77 88 77 / 60 30 70 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 86 78 88 80 / 50 30 60 50
MIAMI 87 77 87 78 / 60 30 70 40
NAPLES 87 75 84 76 / 60 20 70 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
732 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
.AVIATION...
THE ATMOSPHERE IS UNSTABLE TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES. SO
WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING BEFORE GOING TO
VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITE. AT THIS
TIME...THE TEMPO GROUP WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE TAF SITES DUE TO THE
UNKNOWN TIMING OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ONCE THE
ACTIVITY GETS GOING...THEN WILL ADD THE TEMPO GROUP TO THE TAF
SITES.
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE EASTERLY DIRECTION AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES ALONG WITH THE CEILING AND VIS IN
THE VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...ONCE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GET GOING LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE VIS AND
CEILING WILL FALL INTO THE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY PASSAGE OF THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
ALONG WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS WILL CONTINUE A DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF
TROPICAL AIR ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE AND AT ANYTIME. THE HRRR WHICH TYPICALLY IS A
RELIABLE HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODEL HAS BEEN STRUGGLING THE
PAST TWO DAYS IN RAINFALL PATTERN SOLUTIONS. TONIGHT IS NO
EXCEPTION WHERE IT LACKS THE RECOGNITION OF ACTIVITY OVER THE
SURROUNDING WATERS. SO ONE CANNOT PLACE MUCH FAITH IN ITS
DEPICTION OF VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 12
TO 15 HOURS. IN SAYING THAT, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
CONTINUE IN THE 2+ INCH RANGE AND ALONG WITH INTERACTING
BOUNDARIES AND THE LARGE SYNOPTIC FEATURES LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT. THE LOW WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH ROTATES SOUTH
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE LOCATED
OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN WEST. AS THIS OCCURS, A RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WILL BUILD WEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SOME MID
LEVEL WARMING OCCURRING BUT COUNTERACTING THIS WILL BE A LARGE
PLUME OF MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ACROSS FLORIDA WITH PWAT VALUES REMAINING AT
2 INCHES OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. AS THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST, THE STEERING
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST-NORTHWEST SO THE HIGHEST POPS
COULD SHIFT TO THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BUT
WITH SUCH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT CONTINUING IT APPEARS THAT AT
LEAST HIGH END CHANCE OR EVEN LIKELY POPS WILL STILL BE IN ORDER
ALONG THE EAST COAST.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD, BUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WHICH WILL PLACE SOUTH FLORIDA
BACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINING
IN PLACE SO HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST.
MARINE...
A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO RATHER BENIGN SEAS WITH 2-3 FEET OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND 2 FEET OR LESS IN THE GULF.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 77 88 77 / 60 30 70 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 78 88 80 / 50 30 60 50
MIAMI 87 77 87 78 / 60 30 70 40
NAPLES 87 75 84 76 / 60 20 70 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...54/BNB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
335 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
ALONG WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS WILL CONTINUE A DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF
TROPICAL AIR ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE AND AT ANYTIME. THE HRRR WHICH TYPICALLY IS A
RELIABLE HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODEL HAS BEEN STRUGGLING THE
PAST TWO DAYS IN RAINFALL PATTERN SOLUTIONS. TONIGHT IS NO
EXCEPTION WHERE IT LACKS THE RECOGNITION OF ACTIVITY OVER THE
SURROUNDING WATERS. SO ONE CANNOT PLACE MUCH FAITH IN ITS
DEPICTION OF VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 12
TO 15 HOURS. IN SAYING THAT, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
CONTINUE IN THE 2+ INCH RANGE AND ALONG WITH INTERACTING
BOUNDARIES AND THE LARGE SYNOPTIC FEATURES LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT. THE LOW WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH ROTATES SOUTH
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE LOCATED
OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN WEST. AS THIS OCCURS, A RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WILL BUILD WEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SOME MID
LEVEL WARMING OCCURRING BUT COUNTERACTING THIS WILL BE A LARGE
PLUME OF MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ACROSS FLORIDA WITH PWAT VALUES REMAINING AT
2 INCHES OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. AS THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST, THE STEERING
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST-NORTHWEST SO THE HIGHEST POPS
COULD SHIFT TO THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BUT
WITH SUCH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT CONTINUING IT APPEARS THAT AT
LEAST HIGH END CHANCE OR EVEN LIKELY POPS WILL STILL BE IN ORDER
ALONG THE EAST COAST.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD, BUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WHICH WILL PLACE SOUTH FLORIDA
BACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINING
IN PLACE SO HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST.
&&
.MARINE...
A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO RATHER BENIGN SEAS WITH 2-3 FEET OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND 2 FEET OR LESS IN THE GULF.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 77 88 77 / 60 30 70 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 78 88 80 / 50 30 60 50
MIAMI 87 77 87 78 / 60 30 70 40
NAPLES 87 75 84 76 / 60 20 70 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
354 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
THE FORECAST CONUNDRUM FOR THIS EVENING IS WHAT TO DO WITH
SPATIOTEMPORAL ARRANGEMENTS OF POPS. LARGELY BIASED POP ARRANGEMENT
TO THE MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND 4 KM NAM. THE GFS HAS
CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH THAN THESE MODELS AS AN OUTLIER. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A TROUGH AXIS THAT IS
DRAPED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. FARTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST, DRIER AIR HAS WORKED ITS WAY IN WITH CLEAR SKIES, SO AM
MORE DUBIOUS TO CONVECTION FORMING. THE CAVEAT TO THIS IS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO WHERE CUMULUS IS STARTING TO BUBBLE. THIS ACTIVITY
MIGHT NOT REACH OUR AREA AND THE PROBLEM WITH THAT IS THAT THE LOW
LEVEL JET FOR TONIGHT IS DISPLACED/FORECAST TO THE SOUTHEAST, SO NOT
SURE OUR NORTHWEST ZONES ARE IN THE AREA FOR SUSTAINED LATE NIGHT
CONVECTION VIA THE LOW LEVEL JET LIKE COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
ANYWAY, HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS FROM LIBERAL TO DODGE CITY TO LARNED
AND POINTS SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BE IN THE BETTER AREA OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT 500-
1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE ALONG WITH ABOUT 30 KT OF BULK SHEAR. THE LARGE
HAIL PARAMETER VIA THE 12Z NAM SOLUTION COMES UP WITH A VALUE OF 4
TO 5, SUGGESTING THAT 1.5" WOULD BE THE MAX FOR UPPER HAIL SIZE
FORECAST DISTRIBUTION. PROBABLY WILL BE SMALLER AS CONVECTION
BECOMES QUASI-LINEAR (AT LEAST SHOWN IN THE MODELS) AND YOU GET
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND HIGHER BENEFICIAL COMPETITION
FOR HAIL EMBRYOS. SPEAKING OF WHICH, WITH A PWAT OF SLIGHTLY UNDER
+2SD, WOULD NOT RULE OUT ANOTHER 1-3" PRECIPITATION HIT FOR
LOCATIONS THAT ARE UNDER TRAINING STORMS. RIGHT NOW THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREA FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
OTHERWISE, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS WITH A PREFERENCE
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY EVENING. MINIMUMS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND MAXIMUMS TOMORROW
WILL BE IN THE 80S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL DAYS
IN A WEAKENED STATE BEFORE FINALLY PROGRESSING INTO THE MIDWEST
AND DEEP SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1500 J/KG, PROVIDED THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
TO INITIATE A STORM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE MINIMAL FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY GIVEN THE LACK OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OR STRONG
SURFACE OR MID LEVEL FORCING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG SYSTEM; HOWEVER, GIVEN
THAT THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM WILL HAVE SHUNTED THE RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO, ONLY MODEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EXIST. IN ADDITION, ALTHOUGH SOME SEVERE WEATHER CAN`T BE RULED
ON LATE MONDAY AND LATE TUESDAY, THE LIMITED MOISTURE MAY PRECLUDE
HIGH-END TYPE SEVERE WEATHER. THIS TIME OF YEAR, WHEN UPPER LEVEL
TEMPERATURES TEND TO BE WARMER THAN IN THE SPRING, YOU OFTEN NEED
VERY RICH MOISTURE TO GET BIG HAIL AND TORNADOES. TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE. DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY
LINGER INTO MID NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY OVER WESTERN UNITED STATES BEFORE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER REGIME WILL PREVAIL FOR THE DDC, GCK, AND
HYS TERMINALS TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING. THE LEE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH TODAY
WHILE THE UPPER DISTURBANCE HELPING TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS THIS
PAST EVENING, SLOWLY BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE SOUTH
WINDS EASE TO AROUND 10 MPH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 86 60 84 60 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 87 60 85 60 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 88 59 84 59 / 30 30 20 20
LBL 87 59 84 60 / 20 20 20 20
HYS 83 59 86 59 / 10 10 10 10
P28 82 61 85 60 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...AJOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
110 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
THE FORECAST CONUNDRUM FOR THIS EVENING IS WHAT TO DO WITH
SPATIOTEMPORAL ARRANGEMENTS OF POPS. LARGELY BIASED POP ARRANGEMENT
TO THE MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND 4 KM NAM. THE GFS HAS
CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH THAN THESE MODELS AS AN OUTLIER. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A TROUGH AXIS THAT IS
DRAPED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. FARTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST, DRIER AIR HAS WORKED ITS WAY IN WITH CLEAR SKIES, SO AM
MORE DUBIOUS TO CONVECTION FORMING. THE CAVEAT TO THIS IS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO WHERE CUMULUS IS STARTING TO BUBBLE. THIS ACTIVITY
MIGHT NOT REACH OUR AREA AND THE PROBLEM WITH THAT IS THAT THE LOW
LEVEL JET FOR TONIGHT IS DISPLACED/FORECAST TO THE SOUTHEAST, SO NOT
SURE OUR NORTHWEST ZONES ARE IN THE AREA FOR SUSTAINED LATE NIGHT
CONVECTION VIA THE LOW LEVEL JET LIKE COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
ANYWAY, HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS FROM LIBERAL TO DODGE CITY TO LARNED
AND POINTS SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BE IN THE BETTER AREA OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT 500-
1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE ALONG WITH ABOUT 30 KT OF BULK SHEAR. THE LARGE
HAIL PARAMETER VIA THE 12Z NAM SOLUTION COMES UP WITH A VALUE OF 4
TO 5, SUGGESTING THAT 1.5" WOULD BE THE MAX FOR UPPER HAIL SIZE
FORECAST DISTRIBUTION. PROBABLY WILL BE SMALLER AS CONVECTION
BECOMES QUASI-LINEAR (AT LEAST SHOWN IN THE MODELS) AND YOU GET
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND HIGHER BENEFICIAL COMPETITION
FOR HAIL EMBRYOS. SPEAKING OF WHICH, WITH A PWAT OF SLIGHTLY UNDER
+2SD, WOULD NOT RULE OUT ANOTHER 1-3" PRECIPITATION HIT FOR
LOCATIONS THAT ARE UNDER TRAINING STORMS. RIGHT NOW THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREA FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
OTHERWISE, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS WITH A PREFERENCE
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY EVENING. MINIMUMS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND MAXIMUMS TOMORROW
WILL BE IN THE 80S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES INTO
THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. AS
THIS OCCURS, SOME OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BREAK OFF FROM THE MAIN WAVE AND RETROGRADE
AS A CLOSED LOW INTO THE MIDWEST. INITIALLY, THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FOR
SOME WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH COULD TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE LACK
OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT, DON`T THINK ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LAST
TOO LONG INTO THE EVENING. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP AGAIN ON THURSDAY EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AS TO
WHETHER THESE STORMS DEVELOP IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS OR REMAIN CONFINED
FARTHER SOUTH.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
OVER THE THE WESTERN STATES IS PROGGED TO LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE UPPER RIDGE GETS EJECTED EASTWARD.
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL BRUSH BY THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRYING OUT SOMEWHAT INTO
THE WEEKEND AND WITH WEAK UPPER FLOW, THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MINIMAL TO NON-EXISTENT. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
INCREASING AGAIN AS THE WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WAVE MOVES OUT
INTO THE PLAINS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF
THIS BUT IT SHOULD BE SOMETIME AROUND LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER REGIME WILL PREVAIL FOR THE DDC, GCK, AND
HYS TERMINALS TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING. THE LEE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH TODAY
WHILE THE UPPER DISTURBANCE HELPING TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS THIS
PAST EVENING, SLOWLY BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE SOUTH
WINDS EASE TO AROUND 10 MPH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 61 85 60 83 / 20 20 20 10
GCK 60 86 60 83 / 20 10 10 10
EHA 60 83 59 82 / 30 10 10 10
LBL 61 85 60 83 / 30 20 20 10
HYS 59 84 59 83 / 10 10 10 10
P28 62 85 60 83 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...AJOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
323 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR TROF FM
SCENTRAL CANADA THRU THE PLAINS IN BTWN A RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND
ANOTHER CENTERED OVER THE ERN GREAT LKS. THERE ARE SEVERAL SHRTWVS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPR TROF. ONE OF THESE IS MOVING NEWD THRU MN
AND IS CAUSING SCT SHOWERS IN WRN WI WHERE SOME DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC IN THE DPVA IS INTERACTING WITH SOME DEEP MSTR SHOWN ON THE
12Z MPX RAOB...WHERE THE PWAT WAS ABOUT 1.15 INCH OR 160 PCT OF
NORMAL. BUT THE RAOBS SHOW MUCH DRIER AIR IS PRESENT JUST TO THE E
OF THIS MOIST AIRMASS...WITH 12Z PWATS AS LO AS 0.46 INCH AT QUAD
CITIES IOWA /55 PCT OF NORMAL/ AND 0.62 INCH AT GRB /85 PCT OF
NORMAL/. THE 12Z H85 AND H7 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS AT THOSE 2 SITES WERE
20-30C. BECAUSE OF THE PRESENCE OF THIS DRY AIR...ONLY MID/HI CLDS
SO FAR HAVE INVADED UPR MI AHEAD OF THE UPR TROF. SOME OF THE
SHOWERS IN NW WI ARE APRCHG IRONWOOD.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE ARND CLDS/POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH TROF TO THE W AND THE CLDS IMPACT ON TEMPS.
AS A DEEP UPR TROF OFF THE W COAST PRESSES TO THE E...THE TROF OVER
CENTRAL NAMERICA IS FCST TO WEEKEN STEADILY THRU THU UNDER THE
LARGER SCALE HGT RISES TO THE E OF THE TROF...INCLUDING IN THE GREAT
LKS. THE RESULT WL BE DIMINISHING DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC...WITH DEEP
LYR QVECTOR DVGC DOMINATING THE ENTIRE CWA ON THU. SINCE THE LLVL
FLOW IS FCST TO VEER ONLY SLOWLY FM THE S TO THE SW...THE ADVECTION
OF THE VERY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE QUAD CITIES/GRB RAOBS WL
AFFECT THE E HALF OF THE CWA THRU THU. SO IN THIS AREA...EXPECT ONLY
SOME MID/HI CLDS INTO THU. OVER THE W HALF...THE SLOWLY WEAKENING
DYNAMIC FORCING THRU THE NGT WL INTERACT WITH MOISTER AIR SHOWN ON
THE MPX RAOB AND FCST PWAT UP TO 160-170 PCT OF NORMAL TO GENERATE
SOME SCT LGT SHOWERS BEGINNING THIS AFTN. BUT THESE WL BEGIN TO FADE
ON THU IN THE FACE OF THE INCRSG DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC. AS FOR
TEMPS...THE GREATER INFLUX OF MSTR AND A STEADY SSW FLOW UNDER
SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT WL GREATLY RESTRICT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP
OVER THE W AND HOLD MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S. WITH DRIER AIR/A BIT
WEAKER H925 FLOW OVER THE E...EXPECT TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...LO ENUF TO ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AS SHOWN
IN CURRENT FCST. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF LINGERING CLD COVER ON THU
ESPECIALLY OVER THE W...OPTED TO LOWER FCST HI TEMPS AT MOST PLACES
THERE INTO THE 60S. THE HIEST TEMPS ON THU INTO THE 70S ARE MOST
LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL AND E AWAY FM THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF LK
MI IN THE LLVL SLY FLOW AND WHERE THERE WL A BIT MORE SUNSHINE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
...WARMER THAN NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND WITH QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTN WILL
BE EXITING EAST OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING. HEIGHT RISES
SHOULD END ANY LGT RAIN SHOWERS EARLIER IN THE DAY...THOUGH A LOWER
MID CLOUD DECK 3-8KFT COULD REMAIN STUCK OVER AT LEAST WESTERN CWA
PER NAM AND GFS BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN
TO FADE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT OR MAYBE AS LATE AS FRIDAY MORNING
WITH SUBSIDENCE INCREASING AND SOME WEAK DRY ADVECTION BELOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WHILE THE WESTERN CWA WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE
CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT...EASTERN CWA SHOULD CLEAR OUT FM MID CLOUDS
EARLY IN THE EVENING...ALLOWING FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING AS
PWATS ARE BLO 50 PCT OF NORMAL. LOWERED MINS INTO THE MID 40S FOR
INTERIOR EAST AND ALSO ADDED FOG. WINDS ABOVE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER
ARE 10-15 KT FM THE SW...SO THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT FOG WOULD TURN
OUT TO BE VERY LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK. BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND
CLEARING OF THE LOW-MID CLOUDS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY SHOULD ALLOW MIXING
TO AT LEAST H875 AND POSSIBLY H85. EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
OVER ALL CWA...EXCEPT NEAR LK MICHIGAN.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL. UPPER RIDGE
SLIDES ACROSS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A REMNANT OF MID TO
UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD INTO THURSDAY MAY TRY TO LIFT BACK TOWARD
AREA ON SATURDAY. MAY SEE REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
LEADING TO FOG OR STRATUS ON FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
INTERIOR CENTRAL AND EAST CWA WITH LIGHTER WINDS CLOSER TO SFC RIDGE
AXIS. ONLY SCT MID CLOUDS WOULD RESULT FM THE MID LEVEL ENERGY WEAK
AS IT IS...AND AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT A BIG IMPACT TO THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. CAVEAT THOUGH IS WE ARE IN THAT TIME OF YEAR
WHERE SUN ANGLE IS LOWER SO IF LOW CLOUDS ARE MORE WIDESPREAD AND
THICKER THAN EXPECTED BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THEY COULD TAKE
A WHILE TO BURN OFF /LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN INSTEAD OF MID
MORNING EARLIER IN THE SUMMER/. OVERALL THOUGH...AT THE LEAST...MOST
AREAS AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN SHOULD SEE A DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AS H85 TEMPS PUSH 12-14C BY AFTN. NORMAL HIGHS FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER ARE LOW TO MID 60S.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS LACKING /H7-H5 RH LESS THAN 50 PCT/ SO
ONLY EXPECT SCATTERED MID CLOUDS. SFC RIDGE STILL CLOSE BY WITH WEST
TO EAST AXIS MAINLY AFFECTING EASTERN CWA. PWATS ON THE INCREASE
WITH THE UPPER LOW REMNANT NEARBY...SO RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL
SEEMS LESS THAN PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS. MINS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY IN THE
50S FOR THE CWA. INTO SUNDAY...DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR WITH
REGARD TO HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LEVEL FLATTENS OUT ALLOWING FOR A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO WORK IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO NORTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHWEST QUEBEC. GEM-NH
AND ECMWF ARE QUICKER BRINGING THIS FRONT THROUGH...FAVORING A FROPA
ON SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...GFS INSISTS ON A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING THROUGH AND MORE OF A SFC TROUGH FORMING...KEEPING SW WINDS
OVER UPR MICHIGAN THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY BEFORE FROPA OCCURS. WPC
AND CONSENSUS BLEND GOES AWAY FM THE GFS AND THIS FORECAST WILL DO
LIKEWISE. RESULT WILL BE MORE MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON SUNDAY...THEN A COOLING TREND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES SEEM SMALL AS STRONGER FORCING STAYS TO NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR
THROUGH MONDAY AND THERE IS MINIMAL THETA-E ADVECTION FOR FRONT TO
WORK WITH AS IT MOVES THROUGH. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THE COOLING TREND
AND PROBABLY DECENT AMOUNT OF LOWER CLOUDS FOR MONDAY.
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVES BY MIDWEEK. MOISTURE ADVECTION BETTER
WITH THIS FRONT AS SOUTH WINDS BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
COUPLE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVES SHOULD LIFT ACROSS AHEAD OF LARGER
SCALE TROUGHING SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. TSRA
CHANCES SMALL AS AXIS OF HIGHER MLCAPES ARE FORECAST TO STAY TO WEST
OF CWA...CLOSER TO FRONT SIDE OF LARGER SCALE TROUGHING ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
ALTHOUGH MID/HI CLDS WL BE THICKENING WITH THE APRCH OF A WEAKENING
UPR DISTURBANCE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES
WITH A PERSISTENT FEED OF LLVL DRIER AIR. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WL BE
AT IWD...WHICH IS CLOSER TO MORE LLVL MSTR IN MN. AS THE WINDS
SLOWLY VEERS TOWARD THE SW...THE ARRIVAL OF THIS HIER MSTR SHOULD
ALLOW A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ON THU MRNG. OTRW...GUSTY S WINDS WL
DIMINISH TOWARD 00Z THIS EVNG WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND COOL LAKE WATERS/HI STABILITY...EXPECT WINDS NO
HIER THAN 20 KTS THRU MON. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MORE HUMID AIR OVER
THE UNUSUALLY COOL LK WATERS...SOME FOG MAY FORM LATE THU NIGHT INTO
FRI AND LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
302 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR TROF FM
SCENTRAL CANADA THRU THE PLAINS IN BTWN A RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND
ANOTHER CENTERED OVER THE ERN GREAT LKS. THERE ARE SEVERAL SHRTWVS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPR TROF. ONE OF THESE IS MOVING NEWD THRU MN
AND IS CAUSING SCT SHOWERS IN WRN WI WHERE SOME DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC IN THE DPVA IS INTERACTING WITH SOME DEEP MSTR SHOWN ON THE
12Z MPX RAOB...WHERE THE PWAT WAS ABOUT 1.15 INCH OR 160 PCT OF
NORMAL. BUT THE RAOBS SHOW MUCH DRIER AIR IS PRESENT JUST TO THE E
OF THIS MOIST AIRMASS...WITH 12Z PWATS AS LO AS 0.46 INCH AT QUAD
CITIES IOWA /55 PCT OF NORMAL/ AND 0.62 INCH AT GRB /85 PCT OF
NORMAL/. THE 12Z H85 AND H7 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS AT THOSE 2 SITES WERE
20-30C. BECAUSE OF THE PRESENCE OF THIS DRY AIR...ONLY MID/HI CLDS
SO FAR HAVE INVADED UPR MI AHEAD OF THE UPR TROF. SOME OF THE
SHOWERS IN NW WI ARE APRCHG IRONWOOD.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE ARND CLDS/POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH TROF TO THE W AND THE CLDS IMPACT ON TEMPS.
AS A DEEP UPR TROF OFF THE W COAST PRESSES TO THE E...THE TROF OVER
CENTRAL NAMERICA IS FCST TO WEEKEN STEADILY THRU THU UNDER THE
LARGER SCALE HGT RISES TO THE E OF THE TROF...INCLUDING IN THE GREAT
LKS. THE RESULT WL BE DIMINISHING DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC...WITH DEEP
LYR QVECTOR DVGC DOMINATING THE ENTIRE CWA ON THU. SINCE THE LLVL
FLOW IS FCST TO VEER ONLY SLOWLY FM THE S TO THE SW...THE ADVECTION
OF THE VERY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE QUAD CITIES/GRB RAOBS WL
AFFECT THE E HALF OF THE CWA THRU THU. SO IN THIS AREA...EXPECT ONLY
SOME MID/HI CLDS INTO THU. OVER THE W HALF...THE SLOWLY WEAKENING
DYNAMIC FORCING THRU THE NGT WL INTERACT WITH MOISTER AIR SHOWN ON
THE MPX RAOB AND FCST PWAT UP TO 160-170 PCT OF NORMAL TO GENERATE
SOME SCT LGT SHOWERS BEGINNING THIS AFTN. BUT THESE WL BEGIN TO FADE
ON THU IN THE FACE OF THE INCRSG DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC. AS FOR
TEMPS...THE GREATER INFLUX OF MSTR AND A STEADY SSW FLOW UNDER
SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT WL GREATLY RESTRICT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP
OVER THE W AND HOLD MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S. WITH DRIER AIR/A BIT
WEAKER H925 FLOW OVER THE E...EXPECT TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...LO ENUF TO ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AS SHOWN
IN CURRENT FCST. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF LINGERING CLD COVER ON THU
ESPECIALLY OVER THE W...OPTED TO LOWER FCST HI TEMPS AT MOST PLACES
THERE INTO THE 60S. THE HIEST TEMPS ON THU INTO THE 70S ARE MOST
LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL AND E AWAY FM THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF LK
MI IN THE LLVL SLY FLOW AND WHERE THERE WL A BIT MORE SUNSHINE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
NAM SHOWS A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND
ONE OFF THE EAST COAST 12Z THU. THIS TROUGH GETS EMBEDDED IN THE
RIDGE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. CANNOT RULE OUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE WEST FOR THU AS THE UPPER TROUGH IS NEARBY AND THIS WILL ALSO
CAUSE SOME MORE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER THRU THU
NIGHT. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUDS...THIS SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES
DOWN A BIT AND OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST EXCEPT FOR THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST ON THU.
OTHERWISE...QUIET AND DRY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH AND LOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY 12Z SAT. THIS UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF US 12Z SUN WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
BACK INTO THE PLAINS. THIS RIDGE THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES 12Z MON INTO 12Z TUE. THIS FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY DRY AND WARM
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
LOOKS LIKE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT DOES NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST IF AT ALL SUN INTO MON. FRONT
STALLS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON TUE AND WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE WEST IN CASE SOME SHOWERS BREAK OUT. WITH THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
ALTHOUGH MID/HI CLDS WL BE THICKENING WITH THE APRCH OF A WEAKENING
UPR DISTURBANCE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES
WITH A PERSISTENT FEED OF LLVL DRIER AIR. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WL BE
AT IWD...WHICH IS CLOSER TO MORE LLVL MSTR IN MN. AS THE WINDS
SLOWLY VEERS TOWARD THE SW...THE ARRIVAL OF THIS HIER MSTR SHOULD
ALLOW A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ON THU MRNG. OTRW...GUSTY S WINDS WL
DIMINISH TOWARD 00Z THIS EVNG WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND COOL LAKE WATERS/HI STABILITY...EXPECT WINDS NO
HIER THAN 20 KTS THRU MON. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MORE HUMID AIR OVER
THE UNUSUALLY COOL LK WATERS...SOME FOG MAY FORM LATE THU NIGHT INTO
FRI AND LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
117 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG AXIS BLDG
INTO THE GREAT LKS IN ADVANCE OF A SHRTWV MOVING NEWD THRU THE
NCENTRAL PLAINS. WITH SFC HI PRES RDG STRETCHING FM OHIO NWWD THRU
THE UPR MIDWEST UNDER THE UPR RDG AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...12Z
PWAT WAS AS LO AS ABOUT 0.50 INCH /ABOUT 70 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ AT
MPX...SKIES ARE MOSUNNY. THERE IS A BACK DOOR COLD FNT SLIPPING
SLOWLY SWWD THRU THRU THE E HALF OF LK SUP ASSOCIATED WITH BLDG HI
PRES NEAR JAMES BAY...BUT THE AIRMASS IS SO DRY THERE ARE NO CLDS
ALONG THIS BNDRY IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY DYNAMIC SUPPORT. H85 TEMPS
ARE AS HI AS 12-13C...SUPPORTING TEMPS THAT HAVE RISEN INTO THE 70S
AWAY FM LK MODERATION. LOOKING UPSTREAM...HI CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH
PLAINS SHRTWV ARE ADVANCING INTO NW WI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON TEMPS AND
EXPECTED CLD COVER/POTENTIAL FOR ANY SHOWERS LATER ON WED OVER AT
LEAST THE FAR WRN CWA IN ADVANCE OF DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU THE
PLAINS.
LATE TDAY/TNGT...ALTHOUGH BACK DOOR COLD FNT REINFORCED BY LK BREEZE
FORMATION/INLAND HEATING MAY SLIP INTO THE CWA BORDERING LK SUP FM
THE KEWEENAW E TOWARD WHITEFISH PT LATE THIS AFTN...SUBSIDENCE/DRY
AIRMASS WL LIMIT IMPACT TO SOME LOCAL COOLING NEAR THE SHORE.
OTRW...HI CLDS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHRTWV MOVING NEWD THRU THE PLAINS
WL ARRIVE OVER AT LEAST THE W HALF OF UPR MI OVERNT. THE COMBINATION
OF THESE INCRSG HI CLDS/STRENGTHENING SSW H925 FLOW TO 25 KTS LATE
UNDER A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT CLOSER TO INCOMING SHRTWV WL LIMIT THE
DIURNAL TEMP FALL OVER THE W. THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP MAY
NOT SEE TEMPS FALL BLO 50. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS NEAR 40 AT
THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS OVER THE E UNDER WEAKER GRADIENT/LINGERING
DRIER AIR. MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG FCST IN THE FCST FOR THE E HALF
WITH FVRBL DIURNAL COOLING.
WED...AS SHRTWV MOVES INTO NE MN/NW WI BY LATE AND SOME DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC OVERSPREADS UPR MI...AT LEAST MID/HI CLDS WL BE
THICKENING SW-NE THRU THE DAY. A NUMBER OF THE MODELS GENERATE SOME
LGT PCPN OVER THE FAR W LATE IN THE AFTN WHERE THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES A DEEPER INCRS IN MSTR UNDER THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT HOW QUICKLY THE NEAR SFC LYR WL
MOISTEN...THE NAM AND GFS BOTH INDICATE PWAT WL INCRS TO 1.25-1.35
INCH OR ABOUT 175 PCT OF NORMAL. SO INTRODUCED SOME LO CHC POPS INTO
THE FAR W LATE IN THE DAY. INCRSG CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL RISE IN
TEMP TO THE 60S AT MOST PLACES DESPITE STEADY S WIND THAT MAINTAINS
H85 TEMPS IN THE 10-12C RANGE. THE HIEST TEMPS MOST LIKELY TO REACH
AOA 70 WL BE OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E AWAY FM MODERATION OFF LK MI
AND WHERE THE CLDS WL THICKEN LATER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TEMP WISE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID AND UPPER 70S. THE COOLEST
READINGS WILL BE FOUND ALONG LAKE MI...ON S WINDS. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE ON THOSE DAYS WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...AND THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE W HALF. THIS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500MB THROUGH THAT WILL BE SHIFTING FROM W
LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.P. BY 12Z
THURSDAY. KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE W HALF. THE
SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND WITH NO REAL PULL OF MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF...LIMITED PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED. THE WEAKENING TROUGH
WILL SINK SE THURSDAY...WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
DAY.
AT THAT POINT...THE SIZABLE 500MB RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM MUCH OF THE
W AND CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. A SFC TROUGH
SET UP N OF LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY MAY SINK ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON
SUNDAY. WENT WITH COOLER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT
STILL MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS MOVING
ACROSS MORE OF N UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...A
FEW MORE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS COME TUESDAY AS THE MAIN 500MB RIDGE EXITS TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLDS FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND WED
IN ADVANCE OF A DISTURBANCE MOVING NE FM THE PLAINS. OTHERWISE THE
DRY LLVL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT HI PRES WL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS TO ALL 3 TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHRA IS
POSSIBLE AT KIWD TOWARD WED EVENING. WL PUT IN VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THRU
THIS COMING WEEKEND AND COOL LAKE WATERS/HI STABILITY...EXPECT WINDS
NO HIGHER THAN 20 KTS THRU SUN.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
633 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014
TONIGHT...NOT AN EASY FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF LOW CLOUD/FOG
DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO. EXPECT CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY
EVENING BEFORE AREAS OF BR/FOG OCCUR. HAVE PLACED BEST GUESS OF
AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG BASED ON FCST OF COND PRESS DEFICITS FROM
HI-RES MDLS...FCST HYDROLAPSES FROM NAM BUFR...AND LATEST HRRR FCST
OF VIS THIS WOULD FAVOR THE CORRIDOR FROM THE NORTH SHORE TO THE
TWIN PORTS AND EXTENDING TO THE BRD LAKES REGION AS MOST LIKELY
TO HAVE ISSUES. EVENING SHIFT MAY NEED TO ENHANCE FOG DEVELOPMENT
ESPECIALLY IF EXTENSIVE CLEARING OCCURS. A CONUNDRUM EXISTS AS TO
WHETHER LOW STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT IS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY
FCST.
TOMORROW...ANOMALOUS MID LVL RIDGE WILL OCCUPY THE REGION WITH
FORMER MID LVL LOW SHUFFLING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS SRN IA. EARLY MORNING
BR/FG...AND POSSIBLY LOW STRATUS...SHOULD ERODE AS BDRY LYR WARMING
COMMENCES BY 15Z. FCST SNDGS SUGGEST THAT ONCE MIXING LAYER IS
ESTABLISHED THERE SHOULD BE A TREND TOWARDS SOME INCREASE IN
PREVAILING SOUTHERLY WIND...AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS. TEMPS WILL RESPOND
TO DEEPENING MIXED LAYER AMIDST ANOMALOUS LOW LVL THICKNESSES AND
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE MARINE
INFLUENCED COASTAL REGIONS OF LAKE/COOK COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014
A BROAD AREA OF RIDGING WILL BRING CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WARM TEMPS AND GOOD
AFTERNOON MIXING TO 5 KFT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 20 MPH.
HAVE INCREASED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS LATEST ECM/GFS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A VORT MAX TRANSLATES EAST ALONG A STALLED
BAROCLINIC ZONE POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
THE SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES AND
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. AS
THE SHORT WAVES DEPARTS MONDAY EVENING...THE FRONT WILL AGAIN PUSH
NORTH INTO CANADA AS SOUTHERLY WINDS/WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASE
OVER THE REGION.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR SOUTH INTO NE THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL PUSH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH WILL BE
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM WALKER...TO GRAND
RAPIDS...VIRGINIA....AND SILVER BAY.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SHIFTING EAST OVER THE ROCKIES/UPPER MIDWEST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVES...AND INCREASING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTM CHANCES FOR
THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014
SKIES WILL CONTINUE GRADUALLY CLEARING THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW AN INVERSION IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF
FOG TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. PREVAILING M/VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO IFR CATEGORIES AS CEILINGS LOWER
BETWEEN 05Z AND 07Z. CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC IN
CIGS AND VSBYS AT DLH...HYR...AND BRD...WHERE ADDITIONAL
REDUCTIONS MAY BE NECESSARY LATER TONIGHT. FOG AND CLOUDS WILL
LIFT AS WINDS AND HEATING INCREASE BY 14-15Z FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 54 75 56 76 / 0 0 0 10
INL 56 77 56 78 / 0 0 0 10
BRD 57 76 58 78 / 0 0 0 10
HYR 53 75 54 76 / 0 0 0 10
ASX 53 75 56 75 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...HUYCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1253 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 454 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
NEDOR CAMS IN THE VALLEY AND SATELLITE CONFIRM DENSE FOG IS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING. THE NAM AND HRRR MODELS INDICATE THE FOG WOULD
LIFT BY 15Z THIS MORNING SO A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN PLACE
UNTIL 14Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE SFC TROF ACROSS NCNTL NEB MOVES EAST ONLY
SLIGHTLY TODAY SETTING UP LIGHT NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE WEST AND
CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS IN THE EAST. THIS TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO ERN NEB TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
FCST AREA.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY FOLLOW THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 50S. SFC OBS INDICATE NO SIGN OF FOG AS
ADVERTISED BY THE NAM AND HRRR VISIBILITY PRODUCTS...CONDITIONS WILL
BE MONITORED AS TEMP DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE 0-2 DEGREES AT 08Z.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS COME MAINLY AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD AS A QUIET
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS QUITE
SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS STARTING MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK SO CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST LOWERS
INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS USED
FOR THE FORECAST.
THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE
EVOLUTION OF THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE STRENGTH OF
THIS TROUGH WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY THE RIDGE TO THE EAST WHICH WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY THING SLIGHTLY COMPLICATING
THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY IS WHAT INFLUENCE THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HAVE AS IT GETS
STUCK UNDER THE LONGWAVE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY AND RETROGRADES. FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
THIS TROUGH WILL BE PLACED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. AT THIS POINT...MODELS CONTINUE
TO KEEP SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AT THE SURFACE WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S ARE
EXPECTED/ SO EVEN WITH SOME ENHANCED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY. THE MAIN
INFLUENCE WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES. THE TROUGHS PLACEMENT WILL PUSH
THE WARMER AIR UNDER THE THERMAL RIDGE NORTH...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE WARMEST AIR LOOKING TO GO FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH HEDGES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. AREAS OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL SEE TEMPERATURE POTENTIALS BEING MUCH COOLER
CUE TO THE COOLER AIR ALOFT. FORECAST CHANGES WERE MINIMAL FROM
THE PREVIOUS OUTPUT...KEEPING THE MID RANGE FORECAST DRY AND WARM.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 80S AND LOW 90S FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH UPPER 70S TO MID 80S FOR SATURDAY. WITH THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED...WILL
NEED TO PAY ATTENTION FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...DEWPOINTS STAY HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM DROPPING TO CRITICAL LEVELS BUT SHOULD KEEP
AN EYE ON THEM DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS POINT...FUELS ARE
NOT CURED WHICH SHOULD HELP MANY AREAS FROM REACHING CRITICAL OR
EVEN NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS.
NOW ONTO THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW AND
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND AND TRANSITION EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT THE CLOSED LOW
WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST...HOWEVER THE
TIMING OF THIS EVOLUTION IS DIFFERENT AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/GEM WITH
THE ECMWF BEING QUICKEST AND THE GEM SLOWEST WITH THIS
PROGRESSION. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL BRING ABOUT DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO NEBRASKA. AT THIS
TIME...THE GFS BRINGS AN INITIAL WAVE OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS LAG AND DON`T PRODUCE
ANY PRECIPITATION LOCALLY UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS EVEN HAS
SLOWED FROM PRIOR MODEL RUNS WHICH AT ONE POINT HAD SUGGESTED RAIN
BEGINNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY SO EXPECTING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK. COVERAGE MAY NOT BE HIGH
IN ALL PERIODS...BUT CHANCES ARE RAIN WILL BE OBSERVED IN SOME
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA MOST DAYS. THE NEXT CONCERN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST...BUT
UNTIL THE TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
STAY NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...LOWS IN THE 40S/50S.
GOING LATER IN THE WEEK...BEYOND THIS FORECAST IT IS LOOKING
LIKELY FOR TEMPERATURES TO DIP DOWN BELOW NORMAL AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES BY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW...HOWEVER EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...INCLUDING KLBF TERMINAL. PERSISTENCE AND MODELS SUGGEST
THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP CAUSING AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS TO EXIST
AFTER 10Z UNTIL 15Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...GOMEZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
609 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 454 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
NEDOR CAMS IN THE VALLEY AND SATELLITE CONFIRM DENSE FOG IS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING. THE NAM AND HRRR MODELS INDICATE THE FOG WOULD
LIFT BY 15Z THIS MORNING SO A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN PLACE
UNTIL 14Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE SFC TROF ACROSS NCNTL NEB MOVES EAST ONLY
SLIGHTLY TODAY SETTING UP LIGHT NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE WEST AND
CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS IN THE EAST. THIS TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO ERN NEB TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
FCST AREA.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY FOLLOW THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 50S. SFC OBS INDICATE NO SIGN OF FOG AS
ADVERTISED BY THE NAM AND HRRR VISIBILITY PRODUCTS...CONDITIONS WILL
BE MONITORED AS TEMP DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE 0-2 DEGREES AT 08Z.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS COME MAINLY AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD AS A QUIET
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS QUITE
SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS STARTING MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK SO CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST LOWERS
INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS USED
FOR THE FORECAST.
THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE
EVOLUTION OF THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE STRENGTH OF
THIS TROUGH WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY THE RIDGE TO THE EAST WHICH WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY THING SLIGHTLY COMPLICATING
THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY IS WHAT INFLUENCE THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HAVE AS IT GETS
STUCK UNDER THE LONGWAVE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY AND RETROGRADES. FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
THIS TROUGH WILL BE PLACED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. AT THIS POINT...MODELS CONTINUE
TO KEEP SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AT THE SURFACE WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S ARE
EXPECTED/ SO EVEN WITH SOME ENHANCED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY. THE MAIN
INFLUENCE WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES. THE TROUGHS PLACEMENT WILL PUSH
THE WARMER AIR UNDER THE THERMAL RIDGE NORTH...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE WARMEST AIR LOOKING TO GO FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH HEDGES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. AREAS OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL SEE TEMPERATURE POTENTIALS BEING MUCH COOLER
CUE TO THE COOLER AIR ALOFT. FORECAST CHANGES WERE MINIMAL FROM
THE PREVIOUS OUTPUT...KEEPING THE MID RANGE FORECAST DRY AND WARM.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 80S AND LOW 90S FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH UPPER 70S TO MID 80S FOR SATURDAY. WITH THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED...WILL
NEED TO PAY ATTENTION FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...DEWPOINTS STAY HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM DROPPING TO CRITICAL LEVELS BUT SHOULD KEEP
AN EYE ON THEM DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS POINT...FUELS ARE
NOT CURED WHICH SHOULD HELP MANY AREAS FROM REACHING CRITICAL OR
EVEN NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS.
NOW ONTO THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW AND
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND AND TRANSITION EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT THE CLOSED LOW
WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST...HOWEVER THE
TIMING OF THIS EVOLUTION IS DIFFERENT AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/GEM WITH
THE ECMWF BEING QUICKEST AND THE GEM SLOWEST WITH THIS
PROGRESSION. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL BRING ABOUT DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO NEBRASKA. AT THIS
TIME...THE GFS BRINGS AN INITIAL WAVE OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS LAG AND DON`T PRODUCE
ANY PRECIPITATION LOCALLY UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS EVEN HAS
SLOWED FROM PRIOR MODEL RUNS WHICH AT ONE POINT HAD SUGGESTED RAIN
BEGINNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY SO EXPECTING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK. COVERAGE MAY NOT BE HIGH
IN ALL PERIODS...BUT CHANCES ARE RAIN WILL BE OBSERVED IN SOME
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA MOST DAYS. THE NEXT CONCERN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST...BUT
UNTIL THE TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
STAY NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...LOWS IN THE 40S/50S.
GOING LATER IN THE WEEK...BEYOND THIS FORECAST IT IS LOOKING
LIKELY FOR TEMPERATURES TO DIP DOWN BELOW NORMAL AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES BY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
THE NAM AND HRRR MODELS SHOW THE FOG OVER PARTS OF NCNTL NEB LIFTING
BY 15Z. VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS THERAFTER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ036-037-
059.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
456 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 454 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
NEDOR CAMS IN THE VALLEY AND SATELLITE CONFIRM DENSE FOG IS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING. THE NAM AND HRRR MODELS INDICATE THE FOG WOULD
LIFT BY 15Z THIS MORNING SO A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN PLACE
UNTIL 14Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE SFC TROF ACROSS NCNTL NEB MOVES EAST ONLY
SLIGHTLY TODAY SETTING UP LIGHT NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE WEST AND
CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS IN THE EAST. THIS TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO ERN NEB TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
FCST AREA.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY FOLLOW THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 50S. SFC OBS INDICATE NO SIGN OF FOG AS
ADVERTISED BY THE NAM AND HRRR VISIBILITY PRODUCTS...CONDITIONS WILL
BE MONITORED AS TEMP DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE 0-2 DEGREES AT 08Z.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS COME MAINLY AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD AS A QUIET
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS QUITE
SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS STARTING MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK SO CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST LOWERS
INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS USED
FOR THE FORECAST.
THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE
EVOLUTION OF THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE STRENGTH OF
THIS TROUGH WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY THE RIDGE TO THE EAST WHICH WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY THING SLIGHTLY COMPLICATING
THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY IS WHAT INFLUENCE THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HAVE AS IT GETS
STUCK UNDER THE LONGWAVE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY AND RETROGRADES. FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
THIS TROUGH WILL BE PLACED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. AT THIS POINT...MODELS CONTINUE
TO KEEP SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AT THE SURFACE WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S ARE
EXPECTED/ SO EVEN WITH SOME ENHANCED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY. THE MAIN
INFLUENCE WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES. THE TROUGHS PLACEMENT WILL PUSH
THE WARMER AIR UNDER THE THERMAL RIDGE NORTH...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE WARMEST AIR LOOKING TO GO FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH HEDGES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. AREAS OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL SEE TEMPERATURE POTENTIALS BEING MUCH COOLER
CUE TO THE COOLER AIR ALOFT. FORECAST CHANGES WERE MINIMAL FROM
THE PREVIOUS OUTPUT...KEEPING THE MID RANGE FORECAST DRY AND WARM.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 80S AND LOW 90S FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH UPPER 70S TO MID 80S FOR SATURDAY. WITH THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED...WILL
NEED TO PAY ATTENTION FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...DEWPOINTS STAY HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM DROPPING TO CRITICAL LEVELS BUT SHOULD KEEP
AN EYE ON THEM DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS POINT...FUELS ARE
NOT CURED WHICH SHOULD HELP MANY AREAS FROM REACHING CRITICAL OR
EVEN NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS.
NOW ONTO THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW AND
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND AND TRANSITION EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT THE CLOSED LOW
WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST...HOWEVER THE
TIMING OF THIS EVOLUTION IS DIFFERENT AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/GEM WITH
THE ECMWF BEING QUICKEST AND THE GEM SLOWEST WITH THIS
PROGRESSION. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL BRING ABOUT DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO NEBRASKA. AT THIS
TIME...THE GFS BRINGS AN INITIAL WAVE OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS LAG AND DON`T PRODUCE
ANY PRECIPITATION LOCALLY UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS EVEN HAS
SLOWED FROM PRIOR MODEL RUNS WHICH AT ONE POINT HAD SUGGESTED RAIN
BEGINNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY SO EXPECTING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK. COVERAGE MAY NOT BE HIGH
IN ALL PERIODS...BUT CHANCES ARE RAIN WILL BE OBSERVED IN SOME
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA MOST DAYS. THE NEXT CONCERN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST...BUT
UNTIL THE TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
STAY NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...LOWS IN THE 40S/50S.
GOING LATER IN THE WEEK...BEYOND THIS FORECAST IT IS LOOKING
LIKELY FOR TEMPERATURES TO DIP DOWN BELOW NORMAL AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES BY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT BOTH THE KLBF
AND KVTN TERMINALS WITH VARIABLE WINDS AT UNDER 10 KTS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ036-037-
059.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
252 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE SFC TROF ACROSS NCNTL NEB MOVES EAST ONLY
SLIGHTLY TODAY SETTING UP LIGHT NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE WEST AND
CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS IN THE EAST. THIS TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO ERN NEB TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
FCST AREA.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY FOLLOW THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 50S. SFC OBS INDICATE NO SIGN OF FOG AS
ADVERTISED BY THE NAM AND HRRR VISIBILITY PRODUCTS...CONDITIONS WILL
BE MONITORED AS TEMP DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE 0-2 DEGREES AT 08Z.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS COME MAINLY AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD AS A QUIET
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS QUITE
SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS STARTING MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK SO CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST LOWERS
INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS USED
FOR THE FORECAST.
THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE
EVOLUTION OF THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE STRENGTH OF
THIS TROUGH WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY THE RIDGE TO THE EAST WHICH WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY THING SLIGHTLY COMPLICATING
THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY IS WHAT INFLUENCE THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HAVE AS IT GETS
STUCK UNDER THE LONGWAVE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY AND RETROGRADES. FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
THIS TROUGH WILL BE PLACED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. AT THIS POINT...MODELS CONTINUE
TO KEEP SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AT THE SURFACE WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S ARE
EXPECTED/ SO EVEN WITH SOME ENHANCED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY. THE MAIN
INFLUENCE WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES. THE TROUGHS PLACEMENT WILL PUSH
THE WARMER AIR UNDER THE THERMAL RIDGE NORTH...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE WARMEST AIR LOOKING TO GO FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH HEDGES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. AREAS OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL SEE TEMPERATURE POTENTIALS BEING MUCH COOLER
CUE TO THE COOLER AIR ALOFT. FORECAST CHANGES WERE MINIMAL FROM
THE PREVIOUS OUTPUT...KEEPING THE MID RANGE FORECAST DRY AND WARM.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 80S AND LOW 90S FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH UPPER 70S TO MID 80S FOR SATURDAY. WITH THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED...WILL
NEED TO PAY ATTENTION FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...DEWPOINTS STAY HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM DROPPING TO CRITICAL LEVELS BUT SHOULD KEEP
AN EYE ON THEM DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS POINT...FUELS ARE
NOT CURED WHICH SHOULD HELP MANY AREAS FROM REACHING CRITICAL OR
EVEN NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS.
NOW ONTO THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW AND
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND AND TRANSITION EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT THE CLOSED LOW
WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST...HOWEVER THE
TIMING OF THIS EVOLUTION IS DIFFERENT AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/GEM WITH
THE ECMWF BEING QUICKEST AND THE GEM SLOWEST WITH THIS
PROGRESSION. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL BRING ABOUT DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO NEBRASKA. AT THIS
TIME...THE GFS BRINGS AN INITIAL WAVE OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS LAG AND DON`T PRODUCE
ANY PRECIPITATION LOCALLY UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS EVEN HAS
SLOWED FROM PRIOR MODEL RUNS WHICH AT ONE POINT HAD SUGGESTED RAIN
BEGINNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY SO EXPECTING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK. COVERAGE MAY NOT BE HIGH
IN ALL PERIODS...BUT CHANCES ARE RAIN WILL BE OBSERVED IN SOME
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA MOST DAYS. THE NEXT CONCERN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST...BUT
UNTIL THE TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
STAY NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...LOWS IN THE 40S/50S.
GOING LATER IN THE WEEK...BEYOND THIS FORECAST IT IS LOOKING
LIKELY FOR TEMPERATURES TO DIP DOWN BELOW NORMAL AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES BY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT BOTH THE KLBF
AND KVTN TERMINALS WITH VARIABLE WINDS AT UNDER 10 KTS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1137 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING NEAR THE NEB/S DAKOTA BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PUSHING EAST WITH STILL
SOME LINGER STRATUS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. MEANWHILE A SFC
TROUGH/WIND SHIFT IS PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. WINDS
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM INTO
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WARMEST ACROSS THE SW. FAR EASTERN CWA
STILL IN THE 60S DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS. A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NW NEB...INTO N
CENTRAL.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES DUE TO THE
TRENDS IN THE ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE BEING OBSERVED WITH THE BACK LINE ROUGHLY
FROM NORTHEAST LINCOLN COUNTY UP THROUGH HOLT COUNTY. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS CUSTER COUNTY AT THE PRESENT
TIME WITH SHOWERS AND WEAK ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE COMING HOURS AND THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDED THAT
DIRECTION ACCORDINGLY. WITH LOSS OF SUN...SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE...HOWEVER MODELS ARE SHOWING
AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHICH
MAY CONTINUE TO BRING LIFT TO THE REGION AND CONTINUE THE ACTIVITY
INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL QUICKLY VEER
EASTWARD SO BELIEVE ALL SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
LOCAL AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY IS
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE TROUGH LINE. NEAR TERM
MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAKENING CAP WITH A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS TO
FIRE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE RUC IS MORE ROBUST THAN THE OTHER
MODELS...ALTHOUGH BOTH THE HRRR OR THE NAM DO DEVELOP A LINE. SHEAR
IS MARGINAL...30 KTS OR LESS...AND NARROW BAND OF LESS THAN A 1000
J/KG OF CAPE SO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO...ESPECIALLY FROM HAIL AS FREEZING
LEVELS IS CLOSE TO 13000 FT ASL.
THE ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST WITH ANY STORMS PUSHING EAST OF
THE CWA BY MORNING. MEANWHILE SOME DRY AIR TO FILL IN BEHIND THE
TROUGH. MODELS SUGGESTING A DRY LAYER TO TRAP SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS N CENTRAL TOWARDS MORNING WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME
FOG...AND CONTINUED TO MENTION PATCHY FOG AFTER SHOWERS END.
TOMORROW DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND A NICE WARM UP ACROSS THE BOARD AS RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. MOST AREAS SHOULD PUSH INTO THE 80S...WITH THE FAR
WESTERN ZONES NEARING 90.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST AND A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. THESE HIGHS TO BE AT LEAST 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH THURSDAY TO INCREASE TO 15 TO
25 MPH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MILD EACH NIGHT WITH LOWS ALSO 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM 55 TO 60.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO WYOMING AND MONTANA BY MONDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF
IS ABOUT 12-18 HRS FASTER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAN THE 12Z GFS.
WITH THE 12Z GEM IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...PREFERENCE
LIES WITH THE ECMWF. LATEST SUPERBLEND POPS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 30 POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT LOOK ON
TRACK. BY TUESDAY...H5 HEIGHT DIFFERENCE ARE NEAR 120 METERS
ACROSS IDAHO AND UTAH. THIS IS DUE TO THE GFS WITH ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION AND THE ECMWF FORECASTING AN UPPER TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY
AND UPPER 70S SUNDAY...COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 70S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT BOTH THE KLBF
AND KVTN TERMINALS WITH VARIABLE WINDS AT UNDER 10 KTS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BROOKS
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
445 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND
MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVE BACK OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1201 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 955 PM TUESDAY...OVERALL INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF RAINFALL
HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...THE 3 KM
HRRR AND RAP MODELS ALL INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN INCREASE
IN INTENSITY AROUND 09Z OR SO AND HAVE INDICATED A SLIGHT DROP IN
POP/QPF FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...RAMPING BACK UP TOWARD
MORNING. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN
OFFSHORE THAT SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE MORNING. CONTINUED WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME CONCERN ABOUT ROTATING
CELLS LATER TONIGHT AS SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES COAST WITH GOOD
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY DEVELOPING NEAR THE TROUGH.
BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES...HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD AS MANY INLAND SPOTS ALREADY
IN THE UPPER 50S WITH LOW 60S COAST...EXCEPT UPPER 60S OUTER
BANKS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DROP MUCH FURTHER GIVEN THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INLAND, RAIN WILL CONTINUE HEAVY AT
TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IN AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE. UPPER
LOW TO THE WEST GRADUALLY WEAKENS/FILLS AND DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS
NE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHUD SEE AT LEAST LINGERING LIGHT RAIN
INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER INLAND AREAS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER RAIN AND FLOODING NEARER THE COAST CONTINUING. EXPECT
LITTLE IF ANY APPRECIABLE LOW/MID LEVEL DRYING DURING THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN WEAK MIXING SO CLOUDY SKIES LIKELY LINGER THRU THE
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CAP HIGHS IN THE MID OR UPPER 60S INLAND.
WARM SOUTH FLOW AT THE COAST MAY BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S
DESPITE PRECIP.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM WED...ONE MORE DAY OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND THEN
DRIER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FILLING UPR CLOSED LOW WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY...
LEAVING IN ITS WAKE WEAKENING BROAD SFC TROUGH. WITHOUT MUCH FLOW TO
KICK OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THINK THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AROUND AS WELL AS SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE
OBX AND DOWNEAST CARTERET...TAPERING BACK TO LOW CHANCE FOR THE
COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES. BOTH ECMENS MEAN AND SREF MEAN SUPPORT THIS
WETTER SOLN FOR THUR. REGARDLESS...THE OVERCAST SKIES AND LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS WILL PROHIBIT DECENT MIXING AND KEEP TEMPS DOWN AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HIGH. MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 70S
INLAND TO MID 70S ON THE COAST.
FOR FRIDAY...SOME SEMBLANCE OF DRYING OCCURS AS WEAK NNW FLOW OCCURS
COURTESY OF HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH REESTABLISHING ITSELF.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TOWARDS THE 80 DEGREE MARK WITH SOME
SUNSHINE FINALLY MAKING ITS APPEARANCE.
BROAD RIDGING IS STILL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS BEING SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH WITH WEAK HIGH PRES
REMAINING IN CONTROL. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80 DEGREE RANGE
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...NEAR CLIMO FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.
COMPLICATED PATTERN BEYOND THE WEEKEND AS WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL
PREVAIL. SOME INDICATION THAT BROAD TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO REPLACE
THE RIDGING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIFFERENCES AMONGST DETERMINISTIC
GFS/ECM AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LEAD TO UNCERTAINTY
AND HAVE GONE NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM WEDNESDAY...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS 09Z-12Z AS RAIN SPREADS INLAND FROM COAST. CIGS
EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING BUT KEPT AT LOW END OF MVFR
FOR NOW. PCPN WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTN BUT MOIST LOW LVLS AND
DECREASING WINDS WILL KEEP LOWER CIGS INTO EVENING WITH SOME
DECREASING VSBYS AS WELL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM WED...POOR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THUR.
WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY PRODUCE CONTINUED IFR CIGS WITH PLENTIFUL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS E NC...AS WELL AS ON
AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS. SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY FRI INTO
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1201 AM WEDNESDAY...POSTED SCA FOR ALBEMARLE SOUND AND
ALLIGATOR RIVER UNTIL NOON WED. OBS ARE INDICATING FREQUENT GUSTS TO
25 KT ERN ALB SOUND AND MOUTH OF ALLIGATOR RIVER...AND FCST
INDICATES THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING. REST OF FCST ON
TRACK.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 10 PM TUESDAY...STRONG GUSTY N/NNE WINDS CONTINUE...GUSTING
AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS AT DIAMOND BUOY AND WELL INTO THE 20S AT OTHER
SPOTS. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO CURRENT ADVISORIES WHICH CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY ON THE FAR NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN WATERS AND PAMLICO
SOUND AND INTO THURSDAY IN THE MIDDLE WATERS. SEAS ALSO CONTINUE
ROUGH WITH 7 FEET 13 MILES EAST OF OREGON INLET AND 8 FEET AT
DIAMOND BUOY. WINDS WILL VEER E/SE AND SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE TROF TO THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY BUT 6+ FT SEAS WILL
LINGER THRU WED AFTN.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM WED...LIGHT AND VAR WINDS EXPECTED THUR AS SFC TROUGH
REMAINS STATIONARY NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS. HIGH PRES FINALLY BEGINS
TO KICK OUT THE SFC TROUGH ON FRI WITH NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS MAY AGAIN APPROACH SCA CRITERIA
AND WAVE WATCH IV AND LOCAL NWPS BOTH ADVERTISING 6 FT SEAS ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS...WHICH MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ045>047-080-081-
092>095-098-103-104.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ130-131-135-
156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...JBM/TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
211 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND
MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVE BACK OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1201 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 955 PM TUESDAY...OVERALL INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF RAINFALL
HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...THE 3 KM
HRRR AND RAP MODELS ALL INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN INCREASE
IN INTENSITY AROUND 09Z OR SO AND HAVE INDICATED A SLIGHT DROP IN
POP/QPF FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...RAMPING BACK UP TOWARD
MORNING. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN
OFFSHORE THAT SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE MORNING. CONTINUED WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME CONCERN ABOUT ROTATING
CELLS LATER TONIGHT AS SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES COAST WITH GOOD
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY DEVELOPING NEAR THE TROUGH.
BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES...HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD AS MANY INLAND SPOTS ALREADY
IN THE UPPER 50S WITH LOW 60S COAST...EXCEPT UPPER 60S OUTER
BANKS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DROP MUCH FURTHER GIVEN THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INLAND, RAIN WILL CONTINUE HEAVY AT
TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IN AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE. UPPER
LOW TO THE WEST GRADUALLY WEAKENS/FILLS AND DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS
NE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHUD SEE AT LEAST LINGERING LIGHT RAIN
INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER INLAND AREAS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER RAIN AND FLOODING NEARER THE COAST CONTINUING. EXPECT
LITTLE IF ANY APPRECIABLE LOW/MID LEVEL DRYING DURING THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN WEAK MIXING SO CLOUDY SKIES LIKELY LINGER THRU THE
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CAP HIGHS IN THE MID OR UPPER 60S INLAND.
WARM SOUTH FLOW AT THE COAST MAY BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S
DESPITE PRECIP.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUE...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN UNSETTLED WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLY ONGOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
MAINLY DRY WITH NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN ENDS WED NIGHT AS LOW PRES AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT WEAKENS MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION. WILL KEEP IN CHANCE POPS
WITH AREA STILL UNDER INFLUENCE OF WEAK UPR LEVEL ENERGY AND
WEAKENING UPR LOW. CHANCES OF HEAVIER WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AND ONLY SCT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ASSOC WITH DRIER
AIR UNDER WEAK SUBSIDENCE. UPR LVL RIDGING EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOW POPS FCST.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. NIGHTTIME
TEMPS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 60S UNDER LIGHT TO CALM WIND
CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM WEDNESDAY...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS 09Z-12Z AS RAIN SPREADS INLAND FROM COAST. CIGS
EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING BUT KEPT AT LOW END OF MVFR
FOR NOW. PCPN WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTN BUT MOIST LOW LVLS AND
DECREASING WINDS WILL KEEP LOWER CIGS INTO EVENING WITH SOME
DECREASING VSBYS AS WELL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUE...SUB VFR CONDS EXPECTED WED NIGHT WITH SCT TO
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON THU AS RAIN
AND LOW CLOUDS EXIT THOUGH SCT SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
COULD BE LATE NIGHT FOG OR STRATUS LATE IN THE WEEK EACH NIGHT AS
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM WITH PARTLY CLOUDY OR CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1201 AM WEDNESDAY...POSTED SCA FOR ALBEMARLE SOUND AND
ALLIGATOR RIVER UNTIL NOON WED. OBS ARE INDICATING FREQUENT GUSTS TO
25 KT ERN ALB SOUND AND MOUTH OF ALLIGATOR RIVER...AND FCST
INDICATES THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING. REST OF FCST ON
TRACK.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 10 PM TUESDAY...STRONG GUSTY N/NNE WINDS CONTINUE...GUSTING
AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS AT DIAMOND BUOY AND WELL INTO THE 20S AT OTHER
SPOTS. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO CURRENT ADVISORIES WHICH CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY ON THE FAR NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN WATERS AND PAMLICO
SOUND AND INTO THURSDAY IN THE MIDDLE WATERS. SEAS ALSO CONTINUE
ROUGH WITH 7 FEET 13 MILES EAST OF OREGON INLET AND 8 FEET AT
DIAMOND BUOY. WINDS WILL VEER E/SE AND SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE TROF TO THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY BUT 6+ FT SEAS WILL
LINGER THRU WED AFTN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUE...SCA CONDITIONS WILL END FIRST IN THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THEN THE NORTHERN WATERS AS SLY WINDS DIMINISH TO 5-15 KT
HIGHEST NRN WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE WED
NIGHT. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AGAIN AROUND 15 KT BY THU NIGHT AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS 2-5 FT HIGHEST NRN AND CNTRL
COASTAL WATERS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON STRENGTH OF THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS AND POSSIBILITY EXISTS OF MARGINAL SCA CONDS IN
LATER FORECASTS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ045>047-080-081-
092>095-098-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ130-131-135-156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JBM
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...JAC/TL
AVIATION...JBM/JAC
MARINE...JAC/CTC/BTC/JBM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
942 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN MONTANA WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST LOW OF
AIR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. RELATIVELY MOIST AIR ACROSS THE
EAST REMAIN IN PLACE. WHILE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IN LOW LYING
AREAS REMAINS IN THE BACK OF MY MIND...THE HRRR DOES NOT DEVELOP
LOW CLOUDS OR FOG TONIGHT...SO THE STEADY SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY
KEEP THINGS MIXED. HELD THE FOG OUT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014
AT 6 PM CDT SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
GRADIENT IS APPARENT IN DEW POINT TEMPERATURE WITH LOWER 60S IN THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND MID 40S WEST. WILL CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY
OF PATCHY FOG JAMES RIVER VALLEY AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. IF THERE IS IT WILL BE PRETTY PATCHY. THE FOGPLOT
SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG JAMESTOWN BUT FOR NOW WILL MONITOR. SURFACE
WINDS MAY BE UP A BIT FOR FOG.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014
ANOTHER WARM DAY ON FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURES OF THIS AFTERNOON HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN AT
BISMARCK...WILLISTON...DICKINSON AND MINOT AS OF 3 PM CDT.
PRELIMINARY RECORD EVENT REPORTS WILL BE SENT BY 4 PM CDT...WITH
UPDATES THIS EVENING. OVERALL FOR FRIDAY...THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS RATHER UNCHANGED IN ORIENTATION AND A FEW
DEGREES CELSIUS COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY. THUS...EXPECT MANY
PLACES TO TOUCH 90S DEGREES AGAIN ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWING THE WARMER
EDGE OF THE 12 UTC SUITE WHICH HAS VERIFIED BEST WITH TEMPERATURES
TODAY. RECORDS HIGHS FOR FRIDAY MAY BE BROKEN.
LOCATION.........FORECAST HIGH.........RECORD
BISMARCK.............90................96 IN 1963
MINOT................90................91 IN 1963
WILLISTON............93................92 IN 1983
DICKSINSON...........90................92 IN 1963
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014
QUASI-ACTIVE FLOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
QUIET WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND AS LEAD
S/WV ENERGY FROM A DESERT SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW EJECTS INTO OUR
LOCAL AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO FILTER SOUTH ALONG TO
BEHIND THE FRONT.
PERHAPS ANOTHER QUIET PERIOD MONDAY AND/OR MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST LOW LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS BRINGING VERY
GOOD PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
DOWNSTREAM AREAS OF THE DAKOTAS IN A MILD SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. VFR IS FORECAST. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
MAKE ITS WAY UP IN TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. THINK THERE
MAY BE SOME SCT CLOUDS AROUND 1 THOUSAND AGL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE
SUNRISE. WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 AGL WILL INCREASE TO 40 KTS
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 07Z SO KEPT MENTION OF WIND SHEAR AT
KISN.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
329 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING WARMTH ON THURSDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.
STRATUS HAS CLEARED ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WHICH
IS EXPECTED BY 21-22 UTC. THE 15 UTC SREF CEILING PROBABILITIES
AND 19 UTC RAP LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS SUGGEST THE STRATUS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS EAST TONIGHT. DID ADD A
PATCHY FOG MENTION TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WHERE
RESIDUAL MID 50S DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN.
FOR THURSDAY...ANOMALOUS 850 MB TEMPERATURES 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ARE FORECAST UNDER THE BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. THIS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURES IN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
LOCATION.........FORECAST HIGH........RECORD
BISMARCK.............90...............92 IN 1902
MINOT................89...............93 IN 1938
WILLISTON............93...............89 IN 2011
DICKINSON............91...............89 IN 1990
JAMESTOWN............85...............95 IN 1938
FOLLOWED THE WARMER EDGE OF THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE WHICH HAS
VERIFIED BEST THIS MONTH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
THE TREND CONTINUES...WARM AND DRY THROUGH LATE WEEKEND.
THE RIDGE...CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN MONTANA...WILL NOSE INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TOMORROW AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER...POTENTIALLY
RECORD BREAKING...TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OUT WEST. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ISN`T PROGGED TO SWING
THROUGH UNTIL SOMETIME TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST
TO SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE
MAIN WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE WAVERED BACK AND FORTH
OVER THE PREVIOUS RUNS. THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE LOW TRACK...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE AT
LEAST MOST OF THE AREA HAS A GOOD CHANCE AT SEEING SOME RAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
IFR STRATUS HAS FINALLY CLEARED KJMS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT
KJMS LATE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WITH NO HAZARDS
EXPECTED.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
102 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
CLEARING AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CHALLENGE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING ENTERING MW FA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST. BASED ON TRENDS DID LOWER MINIMUMS
MAINLY FROM THE VALLEY WEST. ALSO CONTINUED TO TRIM POPS ACROSS
THE FAR EAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY TRIMMED POPS
ACROSS THE EAST AS MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY
MAXIMA OVER S MN SHIFTS EAST. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS POINT WITH
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES FROM BAUDETTE TO FERGUS FALLS....VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS. MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLEARING TREND. SLOWED
DOWN CLEARING THRU 18Z-22Z....LATEST HRRR DOES STILL BRING
CLEARING INTO THE RRV IN THE 22Z PERIOD. THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD AND PRECIP TRENDS. AS EXPECTED UPPER LOW
IS VERY NEAR FARGO. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THIS WAVE IS FROM
FOSSTON TO WAHPETON TO SISSETON MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEAST. LOW
CLOUDS COVER A LARGE PART OF THE AREA AS MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
FLOW AT 850-925 MB IS OVER THE AREA. LAST AREA TO SEE CLOUDS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE FAR NRN RRV. QUESTION OF THE DAY IS HOW WILL
CLOUDS BEHAVE. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST BUT DO EXPECT
LINGERING ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTN OVER PARTS OF
NW/WCNTRL MN. LOW CLOUDS EXTEND WEST OF MINOT-BISMARCK. NAM/GFS
SHOW SLOW CLEARING OF THE DEEPER 850-925 MB MOISTURE FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY...REACHING THE RED RIVER VALLEY MID AFTN BUT NOT THE
FAR EAST TIL AFTER 00Z. WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND TODAY THIS MAY
BE TOO FAST EVEN...BUT ON THE OTHER HAND WILL HAVE NO HIGH CLOUDS
ABOVE THE STRATOCU DECK ON THE WEST SIDE OF IT SO CHANCES FOR THE
SUN TO WORK ITS MAGIC AND OPEN UP SOME CLEARING MAY TAKE PLACE.
FOR NOW KEPT IDEA VIA MODEL SUPERBLEND AND NEIGHBORS IN BRINGING
CLEARING TO GFK-FAR 21Z-22Z PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT
ON TEMPS KEEPING THEM IN THE 60S IN MINNESOTA BUT WITH ENOUGH SUN
WESTERN FCST AREA TO RISE INTO THE MID OR UPPER 70S. RED RIVER
VALLEY KEPT LOW 70S BUT THIS HINGES ON CLOUDS.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN FCST AREA MAY BEEN
CLOUDS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME CLEARING. OTHERWISE IDEA IS FOR A
GENERALLY CLEAR SKY RRV AND WEST. THURSDAY WILL SEE 500 MB HEIGHTS
RISING AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EXPECTING SUNSHINE AND WARM WEATHER
WITH A LOT OF LOW-MID 80S RRV AND WEST WITH 70S EAST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY AND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
OR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATE A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
CROSSING THE REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST OF THE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE NRN PART OF THE AREA...AND DRAG A COLD FRONT JUST OVER THE
CANADIAN BORDER...WITH CHANCES FOR -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS THE NORTH.
BEHIND THE WAVE...THE UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPS
AND LOW POP CHANCES THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS. IFR/MVFR CLOUD DECK HAS
PERSISTED THIS MORNING. EXPECT GRADUAL EROSION FROM THE WEST WITH
CONTINUED DRYING ALOFT BEHIND DEPARTING UPPER LOW. CLEARING IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE VALLEY BY LATE TODAY. HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE IN
CLEARING AT KTVF AND KBJI...WHERE LOWER CIGS MAY BE SLOWER TO ERODE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY UNDER 10-15 KTS. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
FOG TOMORROW MORNING AT THIS POINT...BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
MONITOR.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
939 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY TRIMMED POPS
ACROSS THE EAST AS MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY
MAXIMA OVER S MN SHIFTS EAST. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS POINT WITH
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES FROM BAUDETTE TO FERGUS FALLS....VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS. MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLEARING TREND. SLOWED
DOWN CLEARING THRU 18Z-22Z....LATEST HRRR DOES STILL BRING
CLEARING INTO THE RRV IN THE 22Z PERIOD. THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD AND PRECIP TRENDS. AS EXPECTED UPPER LOW
IS VERY NEAR FARGO. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THIS WAVE IS FROM
FOSSTON TO WAHPETON TO SISSETON MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEAST. LOW
CLOUDS COVER A LARGE PART OF THE AREA AS MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
FLOW AT 850-925 MB IS OVER THE AREA. LAST AREA TO SEE CLOUDS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE FAR NRN RRV. QUESTION OF THE DAY IS HOW WILL
CLOUDS BEHAVE. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST BUT DO EXPECT
LINGERING ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTN OVER PARTS OF
NW/WCNTRL MN. LOW CLOUDS EXTEND WEST OF MINOT-BISMARCK. NAM/GFS
SHOW SLOW CLEARING OF THE DEEPER 850-925 MB MOISTURE FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY...REACHING THE RED RIVER VALLEY MID AFTN BUT NOT THE
FAR EAST TIL AFTER 00Z. WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND TODAY THIS MAY
BE TOO FAST EVEN...BUT ON THE OTHER HAND WILL HAVE NO HIGH CLOUDS
ABOVE THE STRATOCU DECK ON THE WEST SIDE OF IT SO CHANCES FOR THE
SUN TO WORK ITS MAGIC AND OPEN UP SOME CLEARING MAY TAKE PLACE.
FOR NOW KEPT IDEA VIA MODEL SUPERBLEND AND NEIGHBORS IN BRINGING
CLEARING TO GFK-FAR 21Z-22Z PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT
ON TEMPS KEEPING THEM IN THE 60S IN MINNESOTA BUT WITH ENOUGH SUN
WESTERN FCST AREA TO RISE INTO THE MID OR UPPER 70S. RED RIVER
VALLEY KEPT LOW 70S BUT THIS HINGES ON CLOUDS.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN FCST AREA MAY BEEN
CLOUDS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME CLEARING. OTHERWISE IDEA IS FOR A
GENERALLY CLEAR SKY RRV AND WEST. THURSDAY WILL SEE 500 MB HEIGHTS
RISING AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EXPECTING SUNSHINE AND WARM WEATHER
WITH A LOT OF LOW-MID 80S RRV AND WEST WITH 70S EAST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY AND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
OR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATE A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
CROSSING THE REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST OF THE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE NRN PART OF THE AREA...AND DRAG A COLD FRONT JUST OVER THE
CANADIAN BORDER...WITH CHANCES FOR -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS THE NORTH.
BEHIND THE WAVE...THE UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPS
AND LOW POP CHANCES THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS IN THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECT
VERY LITTLE CHANGE THRU THE MORNING WITH ONLY SLOW RISES IN THE
CLOUD BASES. TIMING OF CLEARING INTO DVL THEN GFK/FAR THIS AFTN IS
HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE AND SUBJECT TO FURTHER UPDATES. ATTM IDEA FROM
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS IS FOR CLEARING TO WORK INTO DVL REGION
18Z-20Z AND INTO THE RRV NR 22Z...KEPT BEMIDJI MVFR THRU WED
NIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
706 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES FROM BAUDETTE TO FERGUS FALLS....VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS. MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLEARING TREND. SLOWED
DOWN CLEARNIG THRU 18Z-22Z....LATEST HRRR DOES STILL BRING
CLEARING INTO THE RRV IN THE 22Z PERIOD. THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD AND PRECIP TRENDS. AS EXPECTED UPPER LOW
IS VERY NEAR FARGO. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THIS WAVE IS FROM
FOSSTON TO WAHPETON TO SISSETON MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEAST. LOW
CLOUDS COVER A LARGE PART OF THE AREA AS MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
FLOW AT 850-925 MB IS OVER THE AREA. LAST AREA TO SEE CLOUDS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE FAR NRN RRV. QUESTION OF THE DAY IS HOW WILL
CLOUDS BEHAVE. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST BUT DO EXPECT
LINGERING ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTN OVER PARTS OF
NW/WCNTRL MN. LOW CLOUDS EXTEND WEST OF MINOT-BISMARCK. NAM/GFS
SHOW SLOW CLEARING OF THE DEEPER 850-925 MB MOISTURE FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY...REACHING THE RED RIVER VALLEY MID AFTN BUT NOT THE
FAR EAST TIL AFTER 00Z. WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND TODAY THIS MAY
BE TOO FAST EVEN...BUT ON THE OTHER HAND WILL HAVE NO HIGH CLOUDS
ABOVE THE STRATOCU DECK ON THE WEST SIDE OF IT SO CHANCES FOR THE
SUN TO WORK ITS MAGIC AND OPEN UP SOME CLEARING MAY TAKE PLACE.
FOR NOW KEPT IDEA VIA MODEL SUPERBLEND AND NEIGHBORS IN BRINGING
CLEARING TO GFK-FAR 21Z-22Z PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT
ON TEMPS KEEPING THEM IN THE 60S IN MINNESOTA BUT WITH ENOUGH SUN
WESTERN FCST AREA TO RISE INTO THE MID OR UPPER 70S. RED RIVER
VALLEY KEPT LOW 70S BUT THIS HINGES ON CLOUDS.
INGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN FCST AREA MAY BEEN
CLOUDS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME CLEARING. OTHERWISE IDEA IS FOR A
GENERALLY CLEAR SKY RRV AND WEST. THURSDAY WILL SEE 500 MB HEIGHTS
RISING AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EXPECTING SUNSHINE AND WARM WEATHER
WITH A LOT OF LOW-MID 80S RRV AND WEST WITH 70S EAST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY AND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
OR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATE A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
CROSSING THE REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST OF THE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE NRN PART OF THE AREA...AND DRAG A COLD FRONT JUST OVER THE
CANADIAN BORDER...WITH CHANCES FOR -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS THE NORTH.
BEHIND THE WAVE...THE UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPS
AND LOW POP CHANCES THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS IN THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECT
VERY LITTLE CHANGE THRU THE MORNING WITH ONLY SLOW RISES IN THE
CLOUD BASES. TIMING OF CLEARING INTO DVL THEN GFK/FAR THIS AFTN IS
HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE AND SUBJECT FO FURTHER UPDATES. ATTM IDEA FROM
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS IS FOR CLEARING TO WORK INTO DVL REGION
18Z-20Z AND INTO THE RRV NR 22Z...KEPT BEMIDJI MVFR THRU WED
NIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1231 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
THE MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER AS THE
WESTERN EDGE OF LOW STRATUS HAS NOW PUSHED OVER MINOT. IT ALSO
APPEARS THAT THE TIMING REFERENCED IN THE 939 PM UPDATE WAS TOO
FAST. LOOK FOR WINDS TO HOLD ON UNTIL 12 OR 13 UTC BASED ON THE
LATEST LOW STRATUS/FOG SATELLITE CHANNEL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
NOW AFTER SUNDOWN AND THE END OF MIXING, THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
(925 MB) HAVE DOMINATED THE STRATUS MOVEMENT AND FORMATION. AS
SUCH THE CLOUDS HAVE MOVED WEST ABOUT 20 MILES SINCE 730 PM. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR AWHILE UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL TRANSPORT NO
LONGER TRENDS WESTWARD...WHICH MAY CONTINUE THROUGH 10Z OR SO. SO
THIS UPDATE SPREAD CLOUDS WESTWARD ABOUT 30 MILES AND STABILIZED
TEMPS UNDER THE CLOUDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
TRANSIENT UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
TO MINNESOTA AND OPEN BY 7 AM CDT WED. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST HAS PRETTY MUCH LOCKING IN THE CLOUDS OVER
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER SO FAR TODAY. THIS EVENING
THE H850/H925 WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AND WARM ADVECTION SETS IN
AROUND SUNSET CENTRAL. THIS SHOULD BRING AN EROSION OF THE WESTERN
BOUNDARY OF CLOUDS BUT SOLID CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY TROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
STRATUS IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND A MILD
WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
WILL FOLLOW THE 18 UTC RAP FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH
TONIGHT...WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT STRATUS FIELD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 1930 UTC.
EXPECT THE CURRENT STRATUS FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A 925-850 MB
MOISTURE AXIS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING...SLOWLY ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DID ADD A PATCHY FOG MENTION ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK WHERE WINDS WILL BE WEAKEST
TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...A WARM WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY...TO THE UPPER 80S FAR WEST. THE ONE CAVEAT IN THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS IF THE STRATUS DOES LINGER A BIT LONGER
THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WHICH COULD
HOLD HIGHS CLOSER TO THE LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
WARM AND DRY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THROUGH THE WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WED-FRI. THIS WILL
BE THE WARMEST WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES WE`VE SEEN SINCE EARLY
AUGUST.
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...
THE MODELS (12 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM) CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE
ALSO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER THAT MOST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY. HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN
ENTER THE FORECAST MONDAY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
STRATUS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL ND WHERE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN IFR CONDITIONS KBIS-KJMS-KMOT THROUGH
12Z. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER BUT PATCHY FOG COULD
EXTEND IFR CONDITIONS PAST 12Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER
13Z. OTHERWISE VFR KDIK-KISN.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...SCHECK
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
140 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY UP THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND INTO
THE DELMARVA THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 104 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
APPEARS MAIN STRATIFORM RAIN IS SITUATED EAST OF A LYH-BUY
LINE...WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF RAIN/SPRINKLES WEST TO THE
FOOTHILLS. LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO BE HANDLING IT FAIRLY WELL AND
TRENDS SHOW MAIN BATCH OF RAIN WILL SKIRT OUR ERN CWA WITH UP TO A
QUARTER INCH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THREAT
TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND NONE WEST OF NRV AND SHENANDOAH VLY. AT THIS
TIME...MODELS POINT TOWARD A DEFORMATION ZONE BAND SETTING UP THIS
EVENING FROM THE NRN CWA INTO NRN VA...WITH LESS THREAT IN THE
SOUTH...SO WILL BE TRENDING DRIER IN THE SOUTHERN CWA AFTER DARK.
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE AFTERNOON UPDATE EXCEPT THE SKY COVER
INCREASING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE LIFTING
SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO TONIGHT.
SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE DELMARVA BY THURSDAY WITH UPPER
SYSTEM MOVING OUT LEAVING BEHIND WEAK UPPER TROUGH LINGERING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE ADJMAV WITH
READINGS FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE WEST TO THE MID 50S IN THE
EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
COMPLICATED SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVING OR CONTINUING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS SEVERAL WEAK CLOSED HIGHS AND LOWS MEANDER ABOUT THE
CONUS. THE UPPER FLOW IS VERY CHAOTIC TO SAY THE LEAST. FOR OUR
REGION THE PRINCIPAL WEATHER PLAYERS WILL BE A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COASTAL/INVERTED
TROUGH...AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE WEDGE OVER THE REGION WILL
PERSIST THU...THANKS TO THE LARGE HIGH OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
WITH TIME...THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN...BUT A NEW HIGH IS PROGGED TO
BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES AS HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE AND THE
CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. MID-RANGE MODELS
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE WEDGE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE GRADUALLY
BEING SHOVED TO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA FRI-SAT AS DRIER AIR
SPREADS SOUTHWEST FROM NEW ENGLAND. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF -RA
THU...TAPERING OFF FROM NE-SW DURING THE DAY. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED -
DZ AS THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING TRENDS TOWARD NIL IS NIL AND
THE MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER
LONGER AND ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. PATTERN
APPEARS SOMEWHAT ANALOGOUS TO WEEKEND BEFORE LAST...WHICH WILL LEAVES
CLOUDS AND -DZ LINGERING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHILE CLOUDS
ATTEMPT TO DECREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH TIME.
USED A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...BUT DID
UNDERCUT MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES FOR THU AND TO SOME EXTENT FRI
WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION. A WARMING TREND
WILL ENSUE SAT AS CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO DECREASE AND 850MB TEMPS
RISE TOWARD +14C...YET OFFSET BY COOLER NE SFC FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE CHAOTIC SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED. WEAK
CUTOFF LOWS ARE EVIDENT IN THE MIDWEST AND TEXAS...WITH A STRONGER
UPPER LOW MIGRATING ONTO THE WEST COAST. UNDERLYING THE ENTIRE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE EAST REMAINS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE...WITH
NEAR 590DM CENTERS OVER SOUTH FL AND THE NORTHEAST. WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVER THE REGION...LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS HOVER
IN THE +12 TO +14 RANGE YIELDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SFC TEMPS.
AS WE MOVE INTO SUN AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...ATTENTION BEGINS TO FOCUS
ON A DISTURBANCE...POTENTIALLY WEAK TROPICAL...ALONG THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST. THIS IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
CAROLINAS AND VA BY LATE MON. THE ECMWF PAINTS A RATHER DIRE PICTURE
OF A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH ROTATING OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WITH DEEP MOISTURE...WHILE THE CANADIAN AND GFS
TEND TO BE MUCH WEAKER WITH THE PARENT UPPER LOW AND ALSO FOCUS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM GA THROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. HAVE NOT MADE
ANY CHANGES TO THE POPS IN THESE LATER PERIODS AS EXISTING POPS WELL
ADVERTISED THE INCREASE IN POPS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS 850MB
TEMPS REMAIN IN THE +12 TO +14C RANGE WITH NO INTRUSIONS OF COOL AIR
EVIDENT AT ALL THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
CIGS ARE GOING TO LOWER TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE PIEDMONT IF
NOT ALREADY THERE. WESTERLY SHIFT IN THE LOWER CIGS WILL MAKE IT
TO ROA/BCB AROUND DUSK OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...THEN TO BLF/LWB BY
MIDNIGHT. BEST RAIN THREAT WILL STAY EAST OF BCB/ROA THOUGH THESE
AREAS COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS EVENING. LYH/DAN
COULD SEE POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE MAIN
AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN SHIFTS NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR
CIGS/VSBYS TO STAY IN SUB VFR LEVELS AND DROP INTO IFR OR LOWER
ALL LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT. NE WIND FLOW IN THE 5 TO 15 KNOT RANGE
WILL KEEP THE CLOUD SOCKED INTO THE REGION THROUGH THU
MORNING...THOUGH CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO LOW END MVFR AFTER
14-15Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK. BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DRIFTS TOWARD THE SW PART OF
THE CWA WITH TIME AS THE WEDGE BOUNDARY PERSISTS ALLOWING SOME DRY
AIR TO FILTER INTO NE SECTIONS BY FRI. EXPECT CONTINUED MOSTLY
MVFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS EARLY THU IN -DZ...BECOMING VFR VSBYS BY
LATE MORNING THU. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO FRI MORNING
BEFORE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS RETURN LATER FRI AND CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT INCLEMENT WEATHER SYSTEM DOES NOT IMPACT THE
REGION UNTIL LATE MON.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PC/RAB
AVIATION...KK/RAB/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
215 AM PDT WED SEP 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO NW OREGON AND SW
WASHINGTON TODAY. THE RAIN WILL DECREASE AND TURN TO SHOWERS BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING AND THE CASCADES THIS
EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
COOL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRIER WEATHER AND SLIGHT
WARMING EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON THIS
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. SATELLITE
DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS VALUES UP TO 2 INCHES OFF OF THE
OREGON COAST. THE FRONT HAS BEEN PRODUCING RAIN RATES BETWEEN 0,1 TO
0.3 INCH PER HOUR. THE COAST AND COAST RANGE HAVE RECEIVED 1 TO 1.75
INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE MAIN RAIN BAND STRETCHED
EAST OF THE COAST RANGE AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THE RAINFALL TOTALS FOR
INTERIOR AREAS ARE RISING EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE RAIN WILL MOVE OVER THE CASCADES AROUND NOON TODAY AND RAIN RATES
WILL DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN WILL TURN TO SHOWERS FOR THE
COAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...AND FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY MID
MORNING. STRATIFORM RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER THE CASCADES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON RAIN FOR THURSDAY...BUT THE UPPER TROUGH
OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR
SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TROUGH
WILL ALSO SUSTAIN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S. MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...THE NEXT FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO ARRIVE ON OUR
DOORSTEPS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE MODELS VARY ON HOW MUCH
RAIN THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE...WITH GFS FORECASTING MUCH LESS
RAINFALL THAN THE ECMWF. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BELOW THE SEASONAL NORMALS.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
NEXT WEDNESDAY. AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...WIDE MIX OF CONDITIONS OF MVFR AND VFR...WHERE WORST
CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS. HIGHER TERRAIN
WILL BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED IN CLOUDS AND RAIN THIS AM. BACK EDGE
OF RAIN/FRONTAL BAND WILL PUSH ONSHORE AROUND 15Z TO 16Z...AND
THEN TO THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS BY 20Z. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOSTLY VFR CIGS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
POCKETS OF MVFR. CONDITIONS OVER CASCADES IMPROVING AFTER 21Z.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...RAIN WITH MIX OF VFR AND OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL AROUND 18Z...THEN WILL SEE RAIN DECREASE WITH
CIGS IMPROVING BACK TO VFR BY 21Z. ROCKEY
&&
.MARINE...FRONT WILL PUSH ONSHORE AROUND 3 AM TODAY. WINDS ARE
EASING A BIT...ENOUGH TO LOWER THE GALE. SO WILL REPLACE WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHERE WINDS WILL BE
20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. WINDS WILL EASE MORE LATER THIS
EVENING. A THE MAIN SURFACE LOW PASSES WELL TO THE NW OF THE
REGION...PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
FETCH OF LARGER...LONG PERIOD SWELL NOW SEEN WELL TO THE WEST OF
THE REGION. BUOY 5...LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES W OF ASTORIA...HAS
BEEN RUNNING AROUND 22 TO 24 FT AT 15 SEC AND PEAKED AT 26 FT
AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS GIVES SUPPORT TO MODEL GUIDANCE OF 17 TO 20
FT SWELL REACHING THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY...BUT HIGHEST WILL BE
OVER THE OUTER NORTH WATERS.
SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AND THU...BUT WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH FRI.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT ON ALL
COASTAL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THIS MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1037 PM PDT TUE SEP 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
More autumn like weather is on the way for the remainder of the
work week. A slow moving cold front will bring an increased
chance of rain to central Washington for Wednesday and Thursday,
then showers will spread to eastern Washington and north Idaho
for Friday and Saturday. Cooler temperatures will follow the cold
front Thursday and Friday. A slight warming and drying trend is
expected for next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: forecast generally looks on track. The bulk of the
precipitation is now toward central and western Washington, with
lingering showers still lifting through the northeast WA and
north ID mountains. The occluded low remains offshore and a slow-
moving front lingers near the coast. Moisture will continue to
feed along this boundary to keep the highest precipitation chances
in the aforementioned areas of central and western Washington.
However I will keep chances going across northeast WA and north
ID, as far southeast as northern Spokane county with the HRRR and
suggestion of a subtle jet streak coming up the east side of the
parent trough may help blossom additional showers overnight. /J.
Cote`
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A moist southerly flow will continue ahead of a slow-
moving longwave trough/cold front edging into western Washington.
That set-up will keep the highest precipitation chances toward
EAT/MWH, especially as the atmospheric layer becomes saturated
through the overnight into Wednesday. Some periods of MVFR cigs
are possible, especially closer to EAT. A few showers are
possible through about 08Z near GEG to COE, but overall the risk
here should wane. Late Wednesday afternoon/early evening hours,
additional shower chances may creep toward GEG. The southeast TAF
sites will be mainly dry with VFR conditions. /J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 57 74 52 71 48 70 / 10 20 30 30 30 20
Coeur d`Alene 55 76 50 74 49 71 / 20 10 20 30 30 30
Pullman 55 78 49 72 48 70 / 10 10 10 30 30 30
Lewiston 60 83 56 77 54 73 / 10 10 10 20 30 30
Colville 54 67 50 74 45 73 / 50 70 50 60 50 20
Sandpoint 53 74 48 73 45 68 / 40 20 20 30 40 20
Kellogg 54 79 50 74 48 68 / 30 10 10 20 40 30
Moses Lake 57 71 53 71 46 74 / 30 60 50 50 20 10
Wenatchee 58 68 55 68 50 74 / 60 70 40 60 20 10
Omak 57 68 52 69 45 72 / 70 80 40 60 40 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
328 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP TO OUR WEST TODAY AND BUILD BACK ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY, THEN PUSH TO OUR SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHAT FEW LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN SOUTHERN DE SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY
TODAY CLEARING THE WAY FOR A PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EAST, THICKNESS WILL INCREASE. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE THE CONTINUED
NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT FOR WINDS TO
REMAIN 5 TO 10KT. OTHERWISE, EVERYTHING ELSE SUGGESTS PRIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS (DRIER AIR, CLEAR SKIES). THUS, HAVE
GONE SLIGHTLY BELOW MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. LOWS
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
POCONOS TO UPPER 50S FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST AND THE URBAN
CORRIDOR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED CONTINUE TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED. THE ONLY WRINKLE TO THIS WOULD BE ANY PATCHY FOG
THAT COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING AND ONVERNIGHT
SUNDAY/MONDAY MORNING. AS THICKNESSES RISE, TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND AS WELL, AND RISE BACK SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, EVEN
REACHING THE 80S AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY,
THEN PUSH TO OUR SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. THEN MODELS ARE SHOWING
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, THEN
MOVING NORTH JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF, BUT THEY ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN HOW
CLOSE THEY BRING THE LOW TO OUR COAST. THIS BEARS WATCHING AS IT
COULD ONCE AGAIN HAVE AN EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER, BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN RAIN, WINDS, AND TIDAL PROBLEMS. PLENTY OF TIME TILL WE GET
THERE, SO IT MAY STILL PASS OUT TO SEA. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE ERODED, RESULTING IN MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONCE
EXCEPTION IS FG/BR THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN SHELTERED VALLEYS INCLUDING
KRDG. THIS FG/BR WILL BE INTERMITTENT THROUGH 12Z, BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH SUNRISE. FEW IF ANY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE DECREASED. AT THE SAME TIME, VAD WIND
PROFILE FROM KDIX SHOWS PERSISTENT 35KT WINDS AT 1000 FT AGL. FOR
NOW, DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN LLWS AS THE STRONGER WINDS
SHOULD BE OVER EASTERN NJ, WHERE SURFACE WINDS ARE STILL NEAR 10KT.
FOR KABE AND KRDG WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHTER, HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SUCH AS THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW LOW LEVEL WINDS ONLY AS HIGH AS 25KT.
IN ADDITION, THE LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH 12Z AS THE
LOW LIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. WILL WATCH THIS CLOSELY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HOWEVER.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT
POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS, RAIN, AND GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL SITES, AS POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW
PASSES BY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS THE LOW LIFTS FURTHER AWAY, WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. ON THE DE
BAY, WINDS (AND SEAS) SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS, SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL FROM THE
6 TO 8 FT THAT THEY ARE NOW TO 4 TO 5 FT BY LATE TONIGHT. WILL ALSO
SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT EARLY TODAY, AND AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
EARLY SATURDAY, BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS LATER IN THE
DAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS MAY INCREASE AHEAD OF A
POSSIBLE APPROACHING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
EVEN THOUGH WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE BETTER TODAY, HIGHER WAVE
HEIGHTS LEFT OVER FROM THE DEPARTING COASTAL STORM WILL LEAD TO A
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AN ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
246 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
ATLANTIC RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO BUILD BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A WEAK SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH LOCATED ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THIS HAS CONTINUED AN ACTIVE PATTERN OF OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST
COAST WITH SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. THERE IS A LITTLE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PATTERN OF DEVELOPMENT FOR THE REST OF
TODAY AS THE GFS DOES NOT DRY THE ATMOSPHERE AS IN PAST RUNS
KEEPING THE PWAT CLOSE TO 2" AND WITH A MUCH SHALLOWER EASTERLY
FLOW. THIS WOULD TRANSLATE TO A CONTINUATION OF POSSIBLE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE
DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW AND WITH PWAT LOWERING TO AROUND 1.75". THE
00Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWED THE DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE AT THAT
TIME AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO BELIEVE MUCH WOULD CHANGE IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FOR THIS REASON, WOULD TEND TO LEAN TOWARDS THE
GFS SOLUTION. IN THIS THINKING, THE HRRR DOES KEEP THE EAST COAST
RATHER ACTIVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING INLAND
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT IMAGERY
DOES SHOW SOME DRYING HEADED OUR WAY BUT IT IS NOT SIGNIFICANT WITH
LEADING EDGE STILL ROUGHLY 250 MILES TO OUR EAST. SO AM A LITTLE
RELUCTANT TO SAY AT THIS TIME MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOWER POPS BUT IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVIER RAINS WILL BE DURING
THE MORNING NEAR THE EAST COAST AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH SOME SLOW DRYING OCCURRING IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL ALSO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE REGION AS THE WEAK TROUGH FADES
AWAY WITH LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT. EVEN THOUGH SOME DRYING WILL OCCUR,
PWAT`S WILL BE AT NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE SEPTEMBER NEAR 1.75". THE
GFS KEEPS THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RATHER SHALLOW ON SATURDAY BUT THEN
DEEPENS IT ON SUNDAY. SO THE PATTERN COULD STILL FAVOR ATLANTIC
ACTIVITY DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS PUSHING ONSHORE ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND THEN FAVORING INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AREAS EACH AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT NEXT WEEK IN
DEVELOPING CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION WITH A STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES EARLY IN
THE WEEK. THE CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN WILL SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE
TO OUR SOUTH AND THIS WILL PLACE SOUTH FLORIDA IN A WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH PWAT`S RUNNING IN THE
1.75-2" RANGE. SO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE SOME
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ONCE AGAIN ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE FLOW WILL THEN VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE GETS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3 FEET IN THE
ATLANTIC WITH 2 FEET OR LESS OVER THE GULF WATERS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 86 78 86 78 / 60 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 79 88 79 / 50 20 30 30
MIAMI 87 78 88 77 / 50 20 30 20
NAPLES 89 76 90 76 / 70 30 60 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
457 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS DATA SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS COMING ON
SHORE OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF THE CONUS. UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE...THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT AFFECTED
THE AREA 24 HOURS AGO IS SPINNING OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
AT THE SURFACE...A 1026MB HIGH IS STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND STRETCHES A 1023MB RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
BETWEEN 850-500MB AS SEEN ON THE 00Z KGRB/KAPX SOUNDINGS. THIS HAS
LED TO CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ON THE
NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUEPRIOR AND
NORTHWEST ONTARIO. THESE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING
UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN 925-850MB AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. BACK TO UPPER MICHIGAN...THE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS HAS LED TO PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.P. AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN HAVE BEEN
SEEN FOG AS LOW AS 1/4MI THUS FAR AND EXPECT THAT AREA OF LOWER
VISIBILITIES TO EXPAND THROUGH SUNRISE. WILL MONITOR FOG TRENDS
AND IF THE LOWER VISIBILITIES BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WILL ISSUE AN
SPS TO ADDRESS THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
EXPECT THE FOG TO BURN OFF BETWEEN 14-15Z BASED OFF TIMING FROM A
COUPLE DAYS AGO AND GOES-R CLOUD THICKNESS DATA NEARING 900FT OVER
THE EAST LEADING TO A DISSIPATION TIME OF 2-2.5HRS AFTER SUNRISE.
AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF...IT SHOULD BE A WONDERFULL EARLY FALL DAY
TO TAKE IN THE FALL COLORS. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH WITH THE NORTHWEST THIRD STILL NEAR SOME OF THE
DEPARTING 925-850MB MOISTURE WOULD EXPECT SOME DIURNAL CU TO
DEVELOP IN THAT AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND MIXING TO AROUND 875MB...EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE IN THE MID 70S
FOR HIGHS TODAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER
VALUES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER VALUES IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
WITH THE UPPER/SURFACE RIDGE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA FOR
THE NEXT 24HRS...EXPECT FOG TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE ACROSS THE AREA
AGAIN TONIGHT. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST AND
ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014
AFTER A WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEEK...CHANGES ARE IN THE OFFING FOR
NEXT WEEK. STRONG RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY (500MB
HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ARE NOTED ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO) AND THEN SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT WARM CONDITIONS FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. TROF
PROGRESSING ACROSS CANADA THIS WEEKEND WILL THEN SUPPRESS THE RIDGE
AND SEND A COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING SHARP
COOLING (ESPECIALLY NOTABLE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR)...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. THEREAFTER...A DEEPENING TROF INTO THE WRN
CONUS WILL FORCE A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS WILL
SUPPORT WARMING AGAIN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THRU THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD. AS THE TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD...THERE IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR A
WET PERIOD AT SOME POINT DURING THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A NUMBER
OF RECENT GFS RUNS AND SOME GEM ENSEMBLES HAVE POINTED TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT FALL STORM TO EMERGE FROM THE TROF...SO THE
END OF NEXT WEEK MAY BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD. COLDER WEATHER WILL
CERTAINLY FOLLOW HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF OCT.
BEGINNING SAT...AFOREMENTIONED TROF SHIFTING ACROSS CANADA WILL PUSH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO NRN ONTARIO. S/SW FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT
WILL MAINTAIN WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FCST AREA. FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A MOSTLY DRY COLUMN...SO SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY SUNNY AFTER
PATCHY SHALLOW FOG DISSIPATES. MIXING TO 850-825MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS
ALSO SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S TO EVEN THE LWR 80S AWAY
FROM LAKE MODERATION WHICH SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT
NIGHT. SHOULD SEE SOME FOG AGAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SCNTRL AND ERN
FCST AREA.
ON SUN...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK S AND E. MODELS INDICATE A
RIBBON OF LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SETTING UP UNDER RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET STREAK SUPPORTING THE TROF HEADING INTO ERN
CANADA. THIS WILL IN TURN LEAD TO BAND OF RAIN DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. SO...TIMING OF FRONT WILL BE CRITICAL TO PCPN FCST AND
OBVIOUSLY TEMPS AS WELL. THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST FRONT WILL REACH LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ACCELERATE S...AT LEAST PASSING THRU THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE AFTN. GEM AND ECMWF ARE
JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER. SO...THERE MAY BE SOME -RA BY EVENING OVER THE
KEWEENAW. OTHERWISE...NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN AHEAD OF FRONT DESPITE
SOME INSTABILITY. NAM LOOKS MUCH OVERDONE WITH MLCAPE UPWARDS OF
1700J/KG. TEMPS SUN SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SAT...EXCEPT A LITTLE
COOLER OVER THE KEWEENAW WITH ANTICIPATION OF WINDS VEERING MORE OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF FRONT ARRIVING THERE IN THE LATER AFTN. IF
FRONT IS A LITTLE FASTER...THERE WILL BE SHARP COOLING ACROSS THE N
IN THE AFTN.
SUN NIGHT/MON...A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA IS
FCST TO DIG INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...ENHANCING THE POST FRONTAL
PCPN AND HOLDING UP PROGRESSION OF COLD FRONT UNTIL THE WAVE PASSES.
INCLUDED CHC POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE N SUN NIGHT (LIKELY ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW OVERNIGHT) AS BEST FRONTOGENESIS FORCING IS STILL INDICATED
TO BE JUST N OF THE AREA. ON MON...BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY ACROSS
THE N AND E IN THE MORNING WHERE BEST FORCING IS EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE...MON WILL BE A SHARPLY COLDER DAY WITH RAIN AND BLUSTERY
N WINDS OFF CHILLY LAKE SUPERIOR. TEMPS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE IN THE
40S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE N. TEMPS COULD STILL
SURGE UP WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FAR SCNTRL IF THE COLD FRONT
DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL LATE MORNING OR AFTN.
PCPN WILL EXIT MON NIGHT...THOUGH SOME UPSLOPE -RA/-DZ MAY HOLD ON
ACROSS THE N GIVEN ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. POST FRONTAL LOW
CLOUDS MAY THEN PLAGUE THE AREA INTO AT LEAST PART OF TUE AS MODELS
INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING.
TROF DEVELOPING INTO THE WRN CONUS MID WEEK WILL SEND ONE PIECE OF
ENERGY N INTO THE NRN PLAINS TUE/EARLY WED BEFORE TROF BEGINS TO
SHIFT TOWARD THE CNTRL CONUS. LEAD WAVE MAY SPREAD SHRA INTO WRN
UPPER MI WED...BUT EXPECT BETTER POTENTIAL FOR PCPN TO ARRIVE THU AS
MAIN TROF MOVES OUT OVER THE PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014
UNDER MOCLR SKIES WITH LGT WINDS...EXPECT SOME FOG TO DVLP AT SAW
AND BRING A PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS TOWARD SUNRISE. SINCE THE LO CLDS
HAVE BECOME SCT OVER WRN UPR MI...SOME FOG MAY FORM AT IWD AND CMX
AS WELL. OPTED TO INCLUDE A VSBY RESTRICTION AT CMX ONLY AS STEADY
SSW WIND AT IWD SHOULD RESULT IN ENUF DOWNSLOPE WARMING TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG THERE. AFTER ANY MRNG FOG BURNS OFF...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THRU FRI EVNG AT ALL 3 SITES WITH DRY ACYC SW FLOW ARND
HI PRES OVER LOWER MI.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014
A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE STRETCHING A RIDGE NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
(BELOW 20KTS) INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT
WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL
THEN PLACE A RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...LEADING TO DIMINISHING WINDS.
FINALLY...WITH MORE MOIST AIR BEGINNING TO WORK NORTH OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1230 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014
TONIGHT...NOT AN EASY FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF LOW CLOUD/FOG
DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO. EXPECT CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY
EVENING BEFORE AREAS OF BR/FOG OCCUR. HAVE PLACED BEST GUESS OF
AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG BASED ON FCST OF COND PRESS DEFICITS FROM
HI-RES MDLS...FCST HYDROLAPSES FROM NAM BUFR...AND LATEST HRRR FCST
OF VIS THIS WOULD FAVOR THE CORRIDOR FROM THE NORTH SHORE TO THE
TWIN PORTS AND EXTENDING TO THE BRD LAKES REGION AS MOST LIKELY
TO HAVE ISSUES. EVENING SHIFT MAY NEED TO ENHANCE FOG DEVELOPMENT
ESPECIALLY IF EXTENSIVE CLEARING OCCURS. A CONUNDRUM EXISTS AS TO
WHETHER LOW STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT IS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY
FCST.
TOMORROW...ANOMALOUS MID LVL RIDGE WILL OCCUPY THE REGION WITH
FORMER MID LVL LOW SHUFFLING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS SRN IA. EARLY MORNING
BR/FG...AND POSSIBLY LOW STRATUS...SHOULD ERODE AS BDRY LYR WARMING
COMMENCES BY 15Z. FCST SNDGS SUGGEST THAT ONCE MIXING LAYER IS
ESTABLISHED THERE SHOULD BE A TREND TOWARDS SOME INCREASE IN
PREVAILING SOUTHERLY WIND...AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS. TEMPS WILL RESPOND
TO DEEPENING MIXED LAYER AMIDST ANOMALOUS LOW LVL THICKNESSES AND
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE MARINE
INFLUENCED COASTAL REGIONS OF LAKE/COOK COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014
A BROAD AREA OF RIDGING WILL BRING CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WARM TEMPS AND GOOD
AFTERNOON MIXING TO 5 KFT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 20 MPH.
HAVE INCREASED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS LATEST ECM/GFS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A VORT MAX TRANSLATES EAST ALONG A STALLED
BAROCLINIC ZONE POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
THE SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES AND
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. AS
THE SHORT WAVES DEPARTS MONDAY EVENING...THE FRONT WILL AGAIN PUSH
NORTH INTO CANADA AS SOUTHERLY WINDS/WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASE
OVER THE REGION.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR SOUTH INTO NE THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL PUSH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH WILL BE
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM WALKER...TO GRAND
RAPIDS...VIRGINIA....AND SILVER BAY.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SHIFTING EAST OVER THE ROCKIES/UPPER MIDWEST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVES...AND INCREASING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTM CHANCES FOR
THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AMCDT FRI SEP 26 2014
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH INVERSION
AROUND 900 MB ACROSS MUCH OF NE MN LATE THIS EVENING..AND STRATUS
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT. AREAS THAT DO
SEE CLEARING WILL LIKELY SEE RATHER RAPID REFORMATION OF FOG AS HAS
ALREADY BEEN SEEN AT KHIB. THIS IS LIKELY TO AFFECT ALL TAF SITES
THRU 12-14Z..WITH POTENTIAL FOR MOST SIG VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
KDLH/KHIB/KHYR.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW SHOULD ALLOW A MUCH MORE EFFECTIVE
MIXING OUT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS/FOG RAPIDLY
DISSIPATING 13-15Z..WITH FORMATION OF SCT CUMULUS THEREAFTER WITH
DAYTIME DEEPENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE A
BIT GUSTY FRIDAY AS WELL WITH A SLOWLY TIGHTENING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 56 76 56 74 / 0 10 10 10
INL 56 78 56 73 / 0 10 20 20
BRD 58 78 56 75 / 0 10 0 10
HYR 54 76 55 76 / 0 10 10 10
ASX 56 75 56 74 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...CLC/DJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
323 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014
DRY/QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.
ALOFT...THE PATTERN FEATURED UPPER RIDGING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THRU THE DAKOTAS/UPPER MIDWEST REGION...AND TO THE SOUTHEAST AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED IN NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IA. FARTHER
UPSTREAM...AN UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING INLAND TO THE WEST COAST. AT
THE SURFACE...SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW WAS IN PLACE IN BETWEEN A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION AND A RIDGE WELL EAST
OF THE MO/MS RIVERS.
HAVE BEEN MONITORING OBSERVATIONAL DATA THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS FOR
SIGNS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AS TEMP/DP SPREADS CLOSE IN...AND SO FAR
THE LOWEST VSBY RESTRICTION HAVE BEEN AROUND 7SM. SHORT TERM
FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST OUR NORTHERN ZONES INTO NE NEB STAND THE
BETTER CHC FOR THE LOWER VSBYS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY
FOG POTENTIAL HERE.
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
KS IS PROGGED TO RETROGRADE/MEANDER TO THE NW INTO NORTHERN
IA/EASTERN NEB WHILE TO THE WEST...THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH DEEPENS
WITH THE LOW CLOSING OFF IN CA. THE WEATHER REGIME WILL BECOME
BLOCKED DUE TO THE WESTERN TROUGH AND AN EAST COAST RIDGE...WITH
THE INTERIOR CONUS IN BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS. EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO
PREVAIL FOR OUR AREA...DESPITE THE RAP WHICH TRIES TO GENERATE
MINOR QPF/PCPN JUST TO OUR EAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MEANDERING
UPPER LOW. HAVE INCREASED SKY GRIDS/CLOUDS TO SOME DEGREE
TODAY/TONIGHT WITH THE WESTWARD MOVING SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING THIS AFTN JUST ABOVE H85 WITH
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER AROUND 20KTS. THE SFC GRADIENT ALSO
TIGHTENS AND EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY/GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS AFTN. HARD TO ARGUE WITH CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS FOR
BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT AND LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE. AFTN HIGHS IN
THE LOW/MID 80S LOOK ON TARGET IN THE MILD FALL AIRMASS...WITH
LOWS STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE AN UPPER
RIDGE THAT WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM
SIDE.
DURING THIS TIME AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. THE FIRST UPPER WAVE FROM THIS LOT WILL START TO AFFECT THE
AREA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY AND AS A SURFACE LOW AND
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY BEFORE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A GRADUAL COOL DOWN WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014
OVERALL QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND FAIRLY LIGHT THORUGH THE NIGHT AND THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR A MVFR VSBY TOWARD MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE FOR A TIME AROUND MID DAY ON FRIDAY...AND ANY CLOUD
COVER SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1245 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014
NO CHANGES THIS UPDATE. NOT SEEING ANY LOW CLOUD OR FOG DEVELOPMENT
IN IFR SAT PICS. LATEST HRRR RUNS NOT SUGGESTING ANY LOW CLOUDS OR
FOG. THINKING AS IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THAT THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MIX WITH THE DRY AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN MONTANA WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST FLOW OF
AIR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. RELATIVELY MOIST AIR ACROSS THE
EAST REMAIN IN PLACE. WHILE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IN LOW LYING
AREAS REMAINS IN THE BACK OF MY MIND...THE HRRR DOES NOT DEVELOP
LOW CLOUDS OR FOG TONIGHT...SO THE STEADY SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY
KEEP THINGS MIXED. HELD THE FOG OUT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014
AT 6 PM CDT SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
GRADIENT IS APPARENT IN DEW POINT TEMPERATURE WITH LOWER 60S IN THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND MID 40S WEST. WILL CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY
OF PATCHY FOG JAMES RIVER VALLEY AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. IF THERE IS IT WILL BE PRETTY PATCHY. THE FOGPLOT
SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG JAMESTOWN BUT FOR NOW WILL MONITOR. SURFACE
WINDS MAY BE UP A BIT FOR FOG.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014
ANOTHER WARM DAY ON FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURES OF THIS AFTERNOON HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN AT
BISMARCK...WILLISTON...DICKINSON AND MINOT AS OF 3 PM CDT.
PRELIMINARY RECORD EVENT REPORTS WILL BE SENT BY 4 PM CDT...WITH
UPDATES THIS EVENING. OVERALL FOR FRIDAY...THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS RATHER UNCHANGED IN ORIENTATION AND A FEW
DEGREES CELSIUS COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY. THUS...EXPECT MANY
PLACES TO TOUCH 90S DEGREES AGAIN ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWING THE WARMER
EDGE OF THE 12 UTC SUITE WHICH HAS VERIFIED BEST WITH TEMPERATURES
TODAY. RECORDS HIGHS FOR FRIDAY MAY BE BROKEN.
LOCATION.........FORECAST HIGH.........RECORD
BISMARCK.............90................96 IN 1963
MINOT................90................91 IN 1963
WILLISTON............93................92 IN 1983
DICKINSON...........90................92 IN 1963
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014
QUASI-ACTIVE FLOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
QUIET WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND AS LEAD
S/WV ENERGY FROM A DESERT SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW EJECTS INTO OUR
LOCAL AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO FILTER SOUTH ALONG TO
BEHIND THE FRONT.
PERHAPS ANOTHER QUIET PERIOD MONDAY AND/OR MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST LOW LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS BRINGING VERY
GOOD PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
DOWNSTREAM AREAS OF THE DAKOTAS IN A MILD SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. VFR IS FORECAST. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
MAKE ITS WAY UP IN TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING.
THINK THERE MAY BE SOME SCT CLOUDS AROUND 1 THOUSAND AGL FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD BEFORE SUNRISE. WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 AGL WILL INCREASE
TO 40 KTS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 07Z SO KEPT MENTION OF WIND
SHEAR AT KISN. RAISED WINDS A BIT AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
414 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
AT 3 AM...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO EXTENDED FROM ABOUT MATAGORDA BAY TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES EXTENDED S-SW INTO TEXAS AND CONTINUES TO BRING
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE NE HALF OF SE TX. AT 850 MB...HIGH
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A WELL
DEFINED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. DEEP 850
MB MSTR WAS LOCATED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. AT
700 MB...SLIGHTLY DEEPER MSTR WAS LOCATED OVER SW LA AND OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. AT 250 MB...A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS SW TOWARD THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A
FAIRLY STOUT JET WAS LOCATED ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. MODELS DIFFER WITH REGARD TO THE JET DYNAMICS TODAY WITH
THE NAM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A FAVORABLE JET POSITION
THAT FAVORS MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE LESS
FAVORABLE WITH WEAKER JET DYNAMICS AND BETTER LIFT TO THE SOUTH.
FEEL THE ECMWF INITIALIZED BETTER THAN BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SO
FEEL IT`S SOLN HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE DYNAMICS.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BEST MSTR OVER THE SW ZONES THIS MORNING
WITH SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING
THE AFTN. PW VALUES AND THE BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC
TROUGH ALSO LOOKS TO BE THIS MORNING. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE SW ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING
AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR AND ARW. LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. TRIMMED POPS AND PROBABLY WASN`T AGGRESSIVE
ENOUGH IN LOWERING RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY.
PW VALUES ON SATURDAY ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.60
INCHES. STILL LOOKS TOO DRY TO GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL.
DYNAMICS DON`T LOOK ALL THAT FAVORABLE SO WENT AGAIN WITH LOW
POPS WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. THE
WEAKNESS OVER TEXAS PHASES WITH A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP OVER TEXAS IN RESPONSE TO THE PHASING SYSTEM TO THE NORTH
AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO SE TX
FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. WILL APPROACH THE STATE ON FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
INCREASE AGAIN AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS APPEARS TO BE
HAVING SOME RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY ISSUES SO LEANED TOWARD THE
ECMWF. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER AND LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY AND SFC WINDS. 43
&&
.MARINE...
THE MAIN ISSUES WILL BE TIDE LEVELS AND WINDS.
TODAY THE HIGH TIDES WILL LIKELY REACH TO AROUND 3 FEET ABOVE THE
MEAN LOWER LOW WATER LEVEL AT BOTH FREEPORT AND THE GALVESTON BAY
ENTRANCE. THIS MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AREAS. THIS
SCENARIO MAY REPEAT AGAIN ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION
MAY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE...SWELLS MAY KEEP THE TIDE LEVELS SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED.
EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD BECOME NORTHEASTERLY NEAR THE COAST AND OVER
THE BAYS. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REACH CAUTION LEVELS
TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING ON SATURDAY.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 86 69 87 67 89 / 20 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 86 69 87 68 89 / 20 10 20 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 84 76 85 75 86 / 30 10 30 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
411 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Potent little upper level low is evident on water vapor imagery
across the Big Bend region early this morning. System will not be
moving fast, and will tend to wobble as shortwaves rotate around it,
but the general trend for the system to move slowly east. The GFS
for several days, and now the TTU WRF and the HRRR as well, show the
system finally tapping better low level moisture out of the Gulf of
Mexico to produce an expanding area of showers and storms this
afternoon and evening. Best chances look to be on the east and
northeast side of the low, so across the Trans Pecos and Del Rio
areas north into the Northern Edwards Plateau and Northwest Hill
Country. Have increased PoPs as far north as San Angelo and
Brownwood, but appears the best chances will be the I-10 corridor
from Ozona to Sonora to Junction.
Whatever does develop will likely linger into the evening hours. And
given the moisture and lift in place as the low itself treks across
the area, would not be surprised to see a few showers or storms linger
well into or even through the overnight hours.
.LONG TERM...
/Saturday through Monday/
The upper level low(currently over the Big Bend) will open up into a
trough and move over east Texas by Saturday evening. However a few
showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday due to the slow
movement of this system and some weak instability over the southern
half of the area. Looks like a dry forecast for the end of the
weekend into the first part of next week. A weak upper level ridge
will be over the Southern Plains. Temperatures will be close to
seasonable values. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s with lows
in the 60s.
/Tuesday through next Friday/
A dry forecast is in store for the middle part of next week and then
a slight chance of rain next Thursday. A strong upper level trough
will settle into the western US early next week. The first piece of
energy(negative tilt shortwave) will lift out into the central and
northern Plains. This upper level system will miss West Central
Texas, however low level southerly flow will increase across the
area by mid week. The mean upper level trough axis will remain
across the western US and another piece of energy will drop into the
trough. this second shot of ascent will move out into the Plains
late next week. Also, a cold front will move east with the upper
level dynamics. There ECMWF is more amplified and further south with
the second system(affecting West Central Texas) then the GFS model.
For now, will go with a slight chance of thunderstorms mainly
Thursday across much of the area due to at least weak convergence
along the front and some instability.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 83 63 83 63 85 / 20 20 10 5 5
San Angelo 81 62 83 63 84 / 30 30 20 10 5
Junction 80 61 82 62 85 / 50 50 20 10 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07/21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1129 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014
.UPDATE...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...NEAR EUNICE...TO AROUND SEMINOLE. THIS ACTIVITY WAS
DRIFTING NORTHWARD AND COULD PERHAPS AFFECT THE
SOUTHWESTERN/WESTERN ZONES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH MOST
SPOTS WILL LIKE STAY DRY. STILL...WE DID MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THROUGH 12Z
GIVEN THIS POSSIBILITY. ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT...PRIMARILY ON THE CAPROCK...WHERE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ALREADY QUITE LOW. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...BUT WHETHER SKIES COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT REMAINS A QUESTION
MARK AND THE LIMITING FACTOR ON FOG DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST NAM...HRRR AND RAP ALL INDICATE AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT...POTENTIALLY DENSE...TOWARD DAWN ON THE
CAP. HENCE...WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INSERTED A PATCHY FOG MENTION
IN THE 9-15Z TIME-FRAME. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THIS TAF
PERIOD. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF KLBB...WHERE THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN. EVEN IF A
SHOWER DOES MANAGE TO GET OVER KLBB /WHICH IS A LOW PROBABILITY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL MOST LIKELY PERSIST. OF A GREATER CONCERN IS
THE PROSPECTS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...IF SKIES
CAN CLEAR. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER CLOUDS WILL CLEAR SOON ENOUGH
FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AT KLBB...BUT THE LATEST SIGNALS ARE STRONGER
AND WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES. THERE
IS EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG AT KLBB...SO THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE COMING HOURS. FURTHER EAST AT
KCDS...WARMER AND DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP THE RISK OF FOG AT
BAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. ANY FOG AT KLBB SHOULD
QUICKLY THIN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. FINALLY...ISOLATED CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE GREATEST
THREAT APPEARS TO BE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014/
SHORT TERM...
A SMALL MID-LVL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE SW ACROSS SE NM.
THIS CIRCULATION HAS MAINTAIN A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SW
SPLNS MUCH OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE
WEAKENING TREND THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER HAVE KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY
COOL...NAMELY MID 60S SW TO NEAR 80 EAST.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE DUE TO THE COOL
TEMPS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF A MID-LVL COOL POCKET THAT MIGHT
SUPPORT MLCAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG OR SO IN AREAS WHERE SURFACE TEMPS
APPROACH 80F. IN ADDITION...HIGHER UP AT THE JET STEAM LEVEL A SHEAR
AXIS MAY SUPPLY SOME DIVERGENCE AND LIFT. THE RESULT IS THAT WE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
T-STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING...FOCUSED ON THE WRN AND SRN SOUTH
PLAINS...BUT THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THAN WHAT OCCURRED WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE
REMAINS QUITE DEEP ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES AND WE COULD SEE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS...BUT WITH THE MODEST INSTABILITY IN
PLACE THIS WILL BE LESS LIKELY AND DUE MORE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND
NOT THE RAINFALL RATES. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER OUT WEST
OVERNIGHT WITH A GENERAL DECREASING TREND.
ON FRIDAY...THE LOW SHOULD MOVE FARTHER AWAY INTO SW TX...BUT N-NE
FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER MUCH OF WEST TEXAS.
IN ADDITION...A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE BE MOVING TO THE W-NW
ACROSS TX AND MAY NUDGE INTO THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WHEN COMBINED WITH DIABATIC HEATING AND THE LINGERING
WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LVL HEIGHT FIELD ACROSS THE AREA...THIS MIGHT BE
ENOUGH TO GIN UP A FEW SHOWERS AND WEAK T-STORMS IN THAT AREA.
OTHERWISE...THE AREA SHOULD WARM UP A BIT BUT REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.
LONG TERM...
RECENT LIGHT FLOW REGIME REMAINS ON TRACK TO AMPLIFY BY LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE START OF OCTOBER. THE PRIMARY
FEATURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS CHANGE IS A DEEP AND VIGOROUS UPPER
TROUGH NOW MAKING LANDFALL OVER MUCH OF THE PACIFIC COAST. AS THIS
WAVE JOGS EAST IN THE DAYS AHEAD...RISING HEIGHTS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE SRN PLAINS AND GRADUALLY RID US OF AN AXIS OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE THAT HAS OCCUPIED THE REGION FOR THE PAST WEEK. UNTIL
THIS RIDGE REACHES OUR AREA...THERE MAY BE A WINDOW FOR LIGHT
PRECIP ON SAT UNDER A DECAYING IMPULSE THAT CONTINUES TO WOBBLE
AROUND SWRN TX. MODEL SOUNDINGS HOWEVER ARE QUITE LACKLUSTER WITH
BOTH LIFT AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...SO WE ARE CHOOSING TO OMIT
PRECIP MENTION ON SAT ATTM. RISING HEIGHTS BY SUN AND A VEERING OF
MID-LEVEL WINDS TO THE WEST WILL GIVE RISE TO A CAPPING LAYER
ALOFT AND SHOULD KEEP ANY BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS WELL SHY OF THEIR
LFC HEIGHTS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE LOOKING A BIT MORE PROMISING FOR ACTIVE
WEATHER IN THE FORM OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION THANKS TO THE ARRIVAL
OF CYCLONIC SWLY FLOW IN THE BASE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC
TROUGH. DESPITE THE CORE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH/LOW LIFTING NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH A NEGATIVE TILT...A RESPECTABLE UPPER JET
MAXIMA IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND
APPROACHING DRYLINE FIT OUR PATTERN RECOGNITION FOR SOME PRECIP...
MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTH NEAREST THE CORE OF BETTER HEIGHT FALLS.
GFS AND ECM ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
STRUCTURE OF THE EJECTING WAVE BY MON NIGHT...SO POPS WERE RAISED
MODESTLY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY BOTH LOOK TO
MAKE A GOOD SHOWING...SO SEVERE TSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
MODELS DO DIVERGE BY TUE WITH THE FLOW REGIME BEHIND THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AS THE ECMWF IS NOW MORE STABLE WITH S/W RIDGING WHILE
THE GFS DEEPENS A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS. THE THEME FOR A COUPLE
DAYS NOW HAS BEEN FOR A PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW FOR TUE-THU...SO
WE WILL REFRAIN FROM THE ECM/S CHANGE OF HEART AND KEEP SOME
PRECIP OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA AHEAD OF AN OSCILLATING
DRYLINE. THIS STORY COULD REPEAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BUT WITH DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT A DRIER AND MORE
EASTERLY DRYLINE POSITION MAY BE THE WAY TO GO AFTER TUE. MODELS
DIVERGE EVEN FURTHER THEREAFTER AND NOW DELAY A CANADIAN COLD
FRONT UNTIL JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST WINDOW /I.E. NEXT THU/.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 54 76 55 76 56 / 10 10 10 10 0
TULIA 54 77 56 77 57 / 10 10 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 55 77 56 77 57 / 10 10 10 10 10
LEVELLAND 55 76 57 77 58 / 20 10 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 56 76 57 77 58 / 10 10 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 56 76 59 77 59 / 30 10 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 56 77 59 77 59 / 20 10 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 59 83 61 81 61 / 10 10 10 10 10
SPUR 57 79 61 80 60 / 10 10 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 59 82 62 82 62 / 10 20 20 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
23/07/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
900 AM MST FRI SEP 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG PACIFIC STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES
LATE TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND HAIL. AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY
NIGHT...DRIER WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE MOVING NORTH FROM MEXICO HAS BROUGHT A WARM...AND VERY
MUGGY MORNING TO OUR CWA TODAY...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER
70S ACROSS SE CA AND SW AZ...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW
70S ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. THE LATEST GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY IS NOW
SHOWING PWATS HAVE RISEN IN THE 1.40-1.70 INCH RANGE ACROSS OUR CWA
AS WELL. THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE ACTING ON THIS COPIOUS MOISTURE
IS JUST ABOUT READY TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE SFO BAY AREA. AS FAR AS
THE VERY SHORT-TERM FORECAST IS CONCERNED...AFTER A QUIET
MORNING...THE LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TUCSON
CWA...GILA COUNTY...AND EVEN ACROSS SE CA AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO
APPROACH THAT REGION...WHICH FITS WELL WITH OUR CURRENT GRIDDED AND
ZONE FORECASTS. OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS...NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NOTE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH REGARDS TO A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...
INCLUDING PHOENIX SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAIN.
TODAY AND SATURDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE NOTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST...SOUTHEAST
CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE THE LARGE
PACIFIC TROF CONTINUES ON TRACK TOWARD AZ FOR SATURDAY. THE FAVORED
GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO BE REMARKABLY CONSISTENT WITH ITS IMPACT OVER
OUR FORECAST AREA MAINLY LATE NIGHT...BUT PARTICULARLY SATURDAY.
THEREFORE THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING FROM
YESTERDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP LATE IN THE DAY OVER
SOUTHEAST CA/SOUTHWEST AZ...AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY ZONE 24.
AS THE PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES LATER TODAY...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
INCREASE ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER...WITH DYNAMICS SLOWLY SHIFTING
TOWARD PHOENIX LATE NIGHT. THEREFORE PRECIP PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE MUCH HIGHER OVER LA PAZ COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST AZ
TONIGHT.
DEVELOPING STORM DYNAMICS UNDER INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE
STRONGEST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING PHOENIX SATURDAY MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
WITH CONVECTIVE STORMS. IN FACT THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING PHOENIX SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BELOW IS AN
EXCERPT FROM THEM ISSUED THURSDAY EVENING AT 1131 PM CDT.
WITH 50KT+ 500MB SPEED MAX FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE COLD
FRONT...SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE SEASONALLY STRONG AND
SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED POTENTIALLY ROTATING STORMS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY IF BUOYANCY IS AT OR GREATER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST
CONVECTION.
THEREFORE OUR FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND MOSTLY SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ IS HIGH. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE NATURE OF FAST MOVING HIT
AND MISS THUNDERSTORMS...THE PREDICTION OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS IS NOT
AS CLEAR WITH REGARDS TO FLOOD OR FLASH FLOODING.
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN AZ SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE
THE COLD FRONT...I.E. OVER SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE 24. CLEARING
SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ LATE SATURDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT.
SUNDAY...
A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ SUNDAY. HOWEVER...
DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ALONG THE EASTERN AZ BORDER
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAVORED HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. SOME OF THESE STORMS
SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE PHOENIX AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY AFFECTING AREA TERMINALS. A REMOTE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH ONLY A SMALL WINDOW OF WESTERLY DIRECTIONAL FLOW MAINLY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH THE BEST CHANCE GENERALLY BETWEEN 21Z-03Z
TODAY...AND FAVORING THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY BE STRONG...POTENTIALLY PRODUCING STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS. A SMALL CHANCE OF MAINLY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT
IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA SOME TIME SATURDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF PHOENIX...ARE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE REGION. DRIER AIR
WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE
OF CONVECTION THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AFTERNOON MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 20 PERCENT ON
SUNDAY...AND THEN TREND TO AROUND 15 PERCENT BY THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE DRIER AIR...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. SOME GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY...THOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1050 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014
.UPDATE...
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE PALM BEACH COUNTY IS
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE MAINLAND. LATEST HRRR INITIALIZES FAIRLY WELL AND DOES
DEPICT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASING ACROSS THE INTERIOR OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH HEATING. TWEAKED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS THROUGH
18Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDING. UPDATE SENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014/
AVIATION...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL MOVE WEST, OFF THE ATLANTIC,
AND BRING SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA BY MID
MORNING AND LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
FURTHER INLAND SOMETIME IN THE MID AFTERNOON, SO THE VCTS IN THE
TAFS MAY BE ABLE TO END A COUPLE OF HOURS EARLIER, DEPENDING HOW
FAST THEY DO MOVE INLAND. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIODS, WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
ATLANTIC RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO BUILD BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A WEAK SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH LOCATED ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THIS HAS CONTINUED AN ACTIVE PATTERN OF OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST
COAST WITH SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. THERE IS A LITTLE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PATTERN OF DEVELOPMENT FOR THE REST OF
TODAY AS THE GFS DOES NOT DRY THE ATMOSPHERE AS IN PAST RUNS
KEEPING THE PWAT CLOSE TO 2" AND WITH A MUCH SHALLOWER EASTERLY
FLOW. THIS WOULD TRANSLATE TO A CONTINUATION OF POSSIBLE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE
DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW AND WITH PWAT LOWERING TO AROUND 1.75". THE
00Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWED THE DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE AT THAT
TIME AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO BELIEVE MUCH WOULD CHANGE IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FOR THIS REASON, WOULD TEND TO LEAN TOWARDS THE
GFS SOLUTION. IN THIS THINKING, THE HRRR DOES KEEP THE EAST COAST
RATHER ACTIVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING INLAND
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT IMAGERY
DOES SHOW SOME DRYING HEADED OUR WAY BUT IT IS NOT SIGNIFICANT WITH
LEADING EDGE STILL ROUGHLY 250 MILES TO OUR EAST. SO AM A LITTLE
RELUCTANT TO SAY AT THIS TIME MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOWER POPS BUT IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVIER RAINS WILL BE DURING
THE MORNING NEAR THE EAST COAST AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH SOME SLOW DRYING OCCURRING IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL ALSO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE REGION AS THE WEAK TROUGH FADES
AWAY WITH LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT. EVEN THOUGH SOME DRYING WILL OCCUR,
PWAT`S WILL BE AT NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE SEPTEMBER NEAR 1.75". THE
GFS KEEPS THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RATHER SHALLOW ON SATURDAY BUT THEN
DEEPENS IT ON SUNDAY. SO THE PATTERN COULD STILL FAVOR ATLANTIC
ACTIVITY DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS PUSHING ONSHORE ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND THEN FAVORING INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AREAS EACH AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT NEXT WEEK IN
DEVELOPING CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION WITH A STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES EARLY IN
THE WEEK. THE CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN WILL SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE
TO OUR SOUTH AND THIS WILL PLACE SOUTH FLORIDA IN A WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH PWAT`S RUNNING IN THE
1.75-2" RANGE. SO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE SOME
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ONCE AGAIN ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD.
MARINE...
A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE FLOW WILL THEN VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE GETS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3 FEET IN THE
ATLANTIC WITH 2 FEET OR LESS OVER THE GULF WATERS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 86 78 86 78 / 50 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 79 88 79 / 50 20 30 30
MIAMI 87 78 88 77 / 50 20 30 20
NAPLES 89 76 90 76 / 70 30 60 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1025 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE POOLING WITHIN A STALLED FRONTAL TROF OVER CENTRAL/S FL HAS
NEARLY SATURATED THE LCL AIRMASS...MORNING RAOBS AT KXMR/KTBW/KMFL
MEASURED 2.2"-2.4" PWATS. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE NRN BAHAMAS WITH A LONG AND DEEP ERLY
SURGE E OF THE BAHAMA BANK. MID LVL VORT MAX OVER THE S HALF OF THE
PENINSULA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP S/SE FLOW THAT WILL PROVIDE A
SOURCE OF LIFT...NOTABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACRS THE FRNTL BNDRY AS
WELL. TOTAL INSTABILITY IS LACKING...HOWEVER...WITH H70-H50 LAPSE
RATES BTWN 5.0-5.5C/KM.
THE DVLPG ERLY FLOW WILL PUSH THE FRNTL BNDRY BACK TO THE NW THRU
THE DAY...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE FL BIG BEND AFT SUNSET. AS ERLY
FLOW DEEPENS...DRIER AIR E OF THE BAHAMAS WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION WITH H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES FALLING BLO 70PCT ALONG THE
SPACE/TREASURE COAST BY 00Z. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL SHIFT TO THE N/W
THRU THE DAY. DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EXISTING CONVECTION OVER THE FL
STRAITS MAY STABILIZE THE AIRMASS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST...NOTABLE
OUTFLOW BNDRY GENERATED BY CONVECTION OVER S FL MAY FURTHER
STABILIZE AIR ARND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. ELSEWHERE...SFC
HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DVLP BY
EARLY AFTN. PRECIP MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SHRAS DUE TO THE WEAK LAPSE
RATES...TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLD AT BEST.
MRNG FCST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD...BUT WILL CONVERT PRECIP TO A MORE
STRATIFORM NATURE OVER THE SRN CWA TO REFLECT LATEST PRECIP TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...
WINDS: THRU 27/00Z...N OF KMLB-KISM E/NE ARND 10KTS...S OF KMLB-KISM
E/SE ARND 10KTS. BTWN 27/00Z-27/04Z...BCMG E/NE AOB 5KTS ALL
SITES...CONTG THRU 27/12Z.
CIGS/VSBYS: THRU 26/17Z...PREVAILING VFR...VCNTY SHRA/TSRA COASTAL
SITES WITH BRIEF PDS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS N OF KMLB...NMRS SHRAS E OF
KPBI EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OR DISSIPATE S OF KSUA. BTWN
26/17Z-26/24Z...W OF KMLB-KOBE NMRS MVFR/SCT IFR SHRAS/ISOLD LIFR
TSRAS...E OF KMLB-KOBE SCT MVFR SHRAS/ISOLD IFR TSRAS...STORM MOTION
NW ARND 10KTS. BTWN 17/00Z-17/03Z...N OF KMLB-KOBE SCT MVFR
SHRAS/ISOLD IFR TSRAS...S OF KMLB-KOBE ISOLD MVFR SHRAS. AFT
17/03Z...ISOLD MVFR SHRAS COASTAL SITES...VFR INTERIOR SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
LONG ERLY FETCH OVER THE SW ATLC WILL PUSH A STUBBORN STATIONARY
FRONT FROM THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BACK INTO THE FL BIG BEND THRU
LATE EVNG. LIGHT TO GENTLE E/NE BREEZE N OF CAPE CANAVERAL WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE E/SE AT 10-15KTS...S OF CAPE CANAVERAL E/SE
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ARND 15KTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN WAVE HEIGHTS AS
THE ERLY FLOW PUSHES A 3FT SWELL INTO THE LCL ATLC...THOUGH WIND
CHOP WILL BECOME MORE NOTICEABLE BY SUNSET. SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND
3-4FT OFFSHORE...DOMINANT PDS ARND 8SEC. NMRS SHRAS/ISOLD TSTMS AS
MVG N/NW AS THE FRONT RETREATS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...(PREV DISC)
ST JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR REMAINS IN ACTION STAGE. BESIDES HEAVY RAIN
OVER THE REGION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE NORTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT AND TIDES HAVE MADE CONTRIBUTIONS IN THE HIGH RIVER LEVELS
IN THE ASTOR AREA. THE NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER MORE EASTERLY TODAY BUT LEVELS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW ACTION STAGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OTHER AREA BEING CLOSELY MONITORED IS ON THE SHINGLE CREEK NEAR
CAMPBELL. LEVELS ON THE RIVER CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL...BUT THIS
AREA IS MORE SUSCEPTIBLE THAN THE ST JOHNS TO FASTER RISES OCCURRING
IF RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1-2" FALL OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE BASIN. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND RUN LOCAL MODEL AS NEEDED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...ANY HEAVY RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND MAY
AGGRAVATE ANY ONGOING STANDING WATER ISSUES AND LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
MINOR FLOODING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
VERO BEACH RECORDED 1.66 INCHES OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY WHICH WAS A
NEW RECORD RAINFALL FOR THE DATE.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
RADAR/IMPACT WX.......CRISTALDI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1015 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
14Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND
UNPROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA. MAIN FLOW
ARRIVES WITHIN A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEFORE
QUICKLY RIDGING WELL NORTH INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THE FLOW THEN
FLATTENS OUT DOWNSTREAM AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY THE TIME IT
REACHES THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SOUTH OF THIS MAIN FLOW WE FIND A
WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF NEW ENGLAND OVERTOP AN
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS COAST. OUR FORECAST
REGION REMAINS ON THE VERY WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
CIRCULATION...ALTHOUGH THE 26/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE DOES NOT
SHOW MUCH CONSISTENCY WITH THE WIND DIRECTION THROUGH ANY DEPTH OF
THE COLUMN.
ONCE AGAIN WE HAVE STARTED THE DAY WITH A VERY SHALLOW STABLE LAYER
RESULTING IN AREAS OF STRATUS. THIS STABLE LAYER PER THE KTBW
SOUNDING IS MAYBE 1-2KFT THICK...AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX IT OUT
BY LATE IN THE MORNING. AS ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS...THE PW HAS
BEEN RISING AND IS NOW OVER 2.2" AT KTBW...AND APPROACHING 2.4" AT
KMFL. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH SUCH A MOIST PROFILE...LAPSE RATES
ARE FAIRLY POOR...GENERALLY IN THE VICINITY OF MOIST ADIABATIC
THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN. THEREFORE...THE COLUMN IS VERY FAVORABLE
FOR CONVECTION...BUT UNFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE TYPE UPDRAFTS. THIS IS
NOT TO SAY THAT A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE NOT POSSIBLE GIVEN PROPER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING TO INCREASE THE CAPE POTENTIAL...
HOWEVER...OVERALL THESE TYPE OF STORMS SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN
TODAY. THE GREATER THREAT FROM TODAYS STORMS (AND WE DO THINK
OVERALL COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE ON
THE HIGH SIDE) WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. SOME SPOTS HAVE SEEN CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL ALREADY THIS
WEEK...AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY SHOULD ANOTHER HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT OCCUR NEARBY. HIGHLANDS COUNTY IS ONE PLACE THAT WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS FLOODING HAS ALREADY BEEN A FACTOR IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS.
AT THE SURFACE...PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PROVIDING A SHALLOW LAYER OF
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW BETWEEN A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH AND AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
THIS TROUGH WILL BE MIGRATING WESTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA TODAY
AND ALONG WITH A FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
POTENTIALLY A LOT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AFTER 18-20Z.
REGIONAL RADARS ARE QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MID-MORNING
AND EXPECT THINGS TO REMAIN QUIET FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. SO...NO
REAL CONCERNS FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUICKLY INCREASING. LOCAL AND
NATIONAL HIRES CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE ARE JUST ABOUT ALL
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE STORM COVERAGE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
DAY. THE GENERAL EVOLUTION SHOWN THROUGH THE GUIDANCE SUITE IS
TYPICAL OF AN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRST
BREAK OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY MID AFTERNOON AND THEN MIGRATE
NORTHWEST WITH TIME REACHING THE TAMPA BAY AND NATURE COAST ZONES
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING TIME PERIOD. THIS IS STILL A
SUMMER-LIKE SCENARIO WHERE IT LIKELY WILL NOT RAIN FOR A LONG TIME
AT MOST SPOTS...BUT THAT MOST SPOTS WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN. RAINFALL
CHANCES RANGE FROM 40-50% UP AROUND CHIEFLAND TO 60-70% BY THE TIME
YOU REACH BROOKSVILLE AND ALL THE WAY SOUTH FROM THERE TO FORT MYERS
AND SEBRING.
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT / EVENING HOURS SHOULD STILL SEE SOME SCT
STORMS ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND TOWARD THE COAST WITH THE
ACTIVITY SLOWLY MIGRATING OFFSHORE INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THE SECOND
HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY OVER THE LAND ZONES WITH
CONTINUED SHOWERS/STORMS ONGOING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S NORTH AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S SOUTH. HAVE A GREAT FRIDAY AND KEEP THOSE
UMBRELLAS HANDY LATER TODAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF LOWE STRATUS FROM KSRQ UP INTO THE TAMPA BAY TERMINALS IS
SHRINKING FAST THIS MID-MORNING AND EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO
VFR FOR ALL STATION BY 15-16Z. APPEARS AS THOUGH STORMS WILL BE
QUITE ACTIVE LATER TODAY AND HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR THUNDER AT ALL
TERMINALS AFTER 19Z. STORMS MIGRATE OFF THE COAST WITHIN A FEW HOURS
OF SUNSET AND PREVAILING VFR IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER
THE AREA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST AND BE A THREAT TO THE COASTAL WATERS
TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS
AGAIN TODAY WITH A MILD SEA BREEZE AFFECT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
DAY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN
THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 85 75 88 76 / 70 40 60 40
FMY 86 75 88 74 / 70 30 50 20
GIF 86 74 88 74 / 60 20 50 20
SRQ 86 75 88 74 / 70 50 60 40
BKV 86 73 88 72 / 60 30 60 40
SPG 86 77 87 77 / 70 50 60 40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...MROCZKA
MARINE...DOUGHERTY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
955 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2014
.Near Term [Today]...
The 8 am EDT regional surface analysis showed a large area of high
pressure across the Southeast, and a weak, quasi-stationary front
across central FL and off the Southeast coast. Vapor imagery and
upper air data showed a weak flow pattern over our forecast area,
between a ridge in the western Atlantic and a broad trough across
much of the central CONUS. Precip Water values were still below
average for much of our region, but they were gradually increasing
from the southeast. Like yesterday, a large deck of low clouds
enshrouded our forecast area, though there were a few breaks here
and there. We think that there will be just enough sunlight for it
to be slightly warmer this afternoon than yesterday, with highs
from the mid 80s in north FL to around 80 around Dothan and
Albany. Rain chances will primarily be limited to our north FL
zones (around Cross City), where there is more deep layer
moisture.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Saturday]...MVFR to occasionally IFR cigs were
affecting all of our terminals this morning. There is good
agreement among the MOS, SREF, and HRRR in a gradual lifting of
these cigs through the day, possibly reaching VFR by mid to late
afternoon. However, a return to low cigs is likely overnight
(though the various NWP guidance differs on just how low).
&&
.Prev Discussion [337 AM EDT]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
Deep moisture will continue to increase through the short term as
the deep layer flow turns more southeasterly and then southerly by
Sunday ahead of an upper trough. There is good agreement amongst
the model guidance on precipitable water values rising to well
above 2 inches across the area by Saturday and especially on
Sunday. With the approach of the upper trough on Sunday, a weak
surface low is likely to develop along the Gulf coast. These
factors point to increasing rain chances from south to north this
weekend with the highest chances on Sunday when some heavy
rainfall amounts could occur. The most likely area for heavy
rainfall appears to be along the Florida panhandle coast closest
to the better forcing from the upper trough on Sunday, and heavy
rain wording was inserted into this area. Afternoon temperatures
will be a bit below normal with all of the cloud cover expected.
.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
Deep moisture will be in place through Monday as the inverted
surface trough interacts with an upper trough over the central
Gulf Coast. This should result in elevated rain chances continuing
into Monday, with locally heavy rainfall possible given
precipitable water values above 2 inches. Things should begin to
dry out by Monday night or Tuesday as the upper energy shears out
to the northeast. The global guidance differs in the timing on
when the deep moisture moves out, so have left some low end PoPs
in the forecast for much of the forecast period. With the tropical
airmass for the first part of the period and no significant
airmass change expected behind this system, expect temperatures to
run near or just above normal into the middle of next week.
.Marine...
Northeasterly flow will continue through tonight before shifting
to easterly on Saturday and southeasterly Saturday night into
Sunday. Conditions will likely be at or near exercise caution
levels this weekend before winds weaken early next week.
.Fire Weather...
As we transition to a very wet pattern, there will be no fire
weather concerns through at least early next week.
.Hydrology...
General rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely across the
forecast area through Monday, except 2 to 3 inches with locally
higher amounts along the panhandle coast. These amounts are not
expected to result in any river flooding due to low flows from the
recent dry summer. However, isolated instances of flash flooding
cannot yet be ruled out for Sunday, mainly along the panhandle
coast. It is too soon to consider any watches, but this trend will
have to be monitored.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 82 70 86 72 86 / 10 10 50 40 70
Panama City 81 71 84 74 86 / 10 10 60 70 80
Dothan 79 67 84 70 84 / 10 10 40 40 70
Albany 80 67 85 70 85 / 20 10 40 40 60
Valdosta 81 69 86 70 86 / 10 20 50 40 60
Cross City 84 71 86 71 87 / 40 40 60 40 60
Apalachicola 81 73 84 75 83 / 10 30 70 70 70
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...DVD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
744 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014
.AVIATION...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL MOVE WEST, OFF THE ATLANTIC,
AND BRING SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA BY MID
MORNING AND LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
FURTHER INLAND SOMETIME IN THE MID AFTERNOON, SO THE VCTS IN THE
TAFS MAY BE ABLE TO END A COUPLE OF HOURS EARLIER, DEPENDING HOW
FAST THEY DO MOVE INLAND. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIODS, WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
ATLANTIC RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO BUILD BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A WEAK SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH LOCATED ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THIS HAS CONTINUED AN ACTIVE PATTERN OF OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST
COAST WITH SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. THERE IS A LITTLE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PATTERN OF DEVELOPMENT FOR THE REST OF
TODAY AS THE GFS DOES NOT DRY THE ATMOSPHERE AS IN PAST RUNS
KEEPING THE PWAT CLOSE TO 2" AND WITH A MUCH SHALLOWER EASTERLY
FLOW. THIS WOULD TRANSLATE TO A CONTINUATION OF POSSIBLE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE
DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW AND WITH PWAT LOWERING TO AROUND 1.75". THE
00Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWED THE DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE AT THAT
TIME AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO BELIEVE MUCH WOULD CHANGE IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FOR THIS REASON, WOULD TEND TO LEAN TOWARDS THE
GFS SOLUTION. IN THIS THINKING, THE HRRR DOES KEEP THE EAST COAST
RATHER ACTIVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING INLAND
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT IMAGERY
DOES SHOW SOME DRYING HEADED OUR WAY BUT IT IS NOT SIGNIFICANT WITH
LEADING EDGE STILL ROUGHLY 250 MILES TO OUR EAST. SO AM A LITTLE
RELUCTANT TO SAY AT THIS TIME MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOWER POPS BUT IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVIER RAINS WILL BE DURING
THE MORNING NEAR THE EAST COAST AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH SOME SLOW DRYING OCCURRING IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL ALSO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE REGION AS THE WEAK TROUGH FADES
AWAY WITH LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT. EVEN THOUGH SOME DRYING WILL OCCUR,
PWAT`S WILL BE AT NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE SEPTEMBER NEAR 1.75". THE
GFS KEEPS THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RATHER SHALLOW ON SATURDAY BUT THEN
DEEPENS IT ON SUNDAY. SO THE PATTERN COULD STILL FAVOR ATLANTIC
ACTIVITY DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS PUSHING ONSHORE ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND THEN FAVORING INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AREAS EACH AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT NEXT WEEK IN
DEVELOPING CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION WITH A STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES EARLY IN
THE WEEK. THE CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN WILL SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE
TO OUR SOUTH AND THIS WILL PLACE SOUTH FLORIDA IN A WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH PWAT`S RUNNING IN THE
1.75-2" RANGE. SO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE SOME
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ONCE AGAIN ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD.
MARINE...
A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE FLOW WILL THEN VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE GETS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3 FEET IN THE
ATLANTIC WITH 2 FEET OR LESS OVER THE GULF WATERS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 86 78 86 78 / 60 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 79 88 79 / 50 20 30 30
MIAMI 87 78 88 77 / 50 20 30 20
NAPLES 89 76 90 76 / 70 30 60 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...13/SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
731 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS DATA SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS COMING ON
SHORE OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF THE CONUS. UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE...THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT AFFECTED
THE AREA 24 HOURS AGO IS SPINNING OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
AT THE SURFACE...A 1026MB HIGH IS STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND STRETCHES A 1023MB RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
BETWEEN 850-500MB AS SEEN ON THE 00Z KGRB/KAPX SOUNDINGS. THIS HAS
LED TO CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ON THE
NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUEPRIOR AND
NORTHWEST ONTARIO. THESE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING
UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN 925-850MB AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. BACK TO UPPER MICHIGAN...THE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS HAS LED TO PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.P. AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN HAVE BEEN
SEEN FOG AS LOW AS 1/4MI THUS FAR AND EXPECT THAT AREA OF LOWER
VISIBILITIES TO EXPAND THROUGH SUNRISE. WILL MONITOR FOG TRENDS
AND IF THE LOWER VISIBILITIES BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WILL ISSUE AN
SPS TO ADDRESS THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
EXPECT THE FOG TO BURN OFF BETWEEN 14-15Z BASED OFF TIMING FROM A
COUPLE DAYS AGO AND GOES-R CLOUD THICKNESS DATA NEARING 900FT OVER
THE EAST LEADING TO A DISSIPATION TIME OF 2-2.5HRS AFTER SUNRISE.
AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF...IT SHOULD BE A WONDERFULL EARLY FALL DAY
TO TAKE IN THE FALL COLORS. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH WITH THE NORTHWEST THIRD STILL NEAR SOME OF THE
DEPARTING 925-850MB MOISTURE WOULD EXPECT SOME DIURNAL CU TO
DEVELOP IN THAT AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND MIXING TO AROUND 875MB...EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE IN THE MID 70S
FOR HIGHS TODAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER
VALUES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER VALUES IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
WITH THE UPPER/SURFACE RIDGE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA FOR
THE NEXT 24HRS...EXPECT FOG TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE ACROSS THE AREA
AGAIN TONIGHT. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST AND
ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014
AFTER A WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEEK...CHANGES ARE IN THE OFFING FOR
NEXT WEEK. STRONG RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY (500MB
HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ARE NOTED ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO) AND THEN SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT WARM CONDITIONS FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. TROF
PROGRESSING ACROSS CANADA THIS WEEKEND WILL THEN SUPPRESS THE RIDGE
AND SEND A COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING SHARP
COOLING (ESPECIALLY NOTABLE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR)...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. THEREAFTER...A DEEPENING TROF INTO THE WRN
CONUS WILL FORCE A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS WILL
SUPPORT WARMING AGAIN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THRU THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD. AS THE TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD...THERE IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR A
WET PERIOD AT SOME POINT DURING THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A NUMBER
OF RECENT GFS RUNS AND SOME GEM ENSEMBLES HAVE POINTED TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT FALL STORM TO EMERGE FROM THE TROF...SO THE
END OF NEXT WEEK MAY BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD. COLDER WEATHER WILL
CERTAINLY FOLLOW HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF OCT.
BEGINNING SAT...AFOREMENTIONED TROF SHIFTING ACROSS CANADA WILL PUSH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO NRN ONTARIO. S/SW FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT
WILL MAINTAIN WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FCST AREA. FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A MOSTLY DRY COLUMN...SO SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY SUNNY AFTER
PATCHY SHALLOW FOG DISSIPATES. MIXING TO 850-825MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS
ALSO SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S TO EVEN THE LWR 80S AWAY
FROM LAKE MODERATION WHICH SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT
NIGHT. SHOULD SEE SOME FOG AGAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SCNTRL AND ERN
FCST AREA.
ON SUN...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK S AND E. MODELS INDICATE A
RIBBON OF LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SETTING UP UNDER RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET STREAK SUPPORTING THE TROF HEADING INTO ERN
CANADA. THIS WILL IN TURN LEAD TO BAND OF RAIN DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. SO...TIMING OF FRONT WILL BE CRITICAL TO PCPN FCST AND
OBVIOUSLY TEMPS AS WELL. THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST FRONT WILL REACH LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ACCELERATE S...AT LEAST PASSING THRU THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE AFTN. GEM AND ECMWF ARE
JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER. SO...THERE MAY BE SOME -RA BY EVENING OVER THE
KEWEENAW. OTHERWISE...NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN AHEAD OF FRONT DESPITE
SOME INSTABILITY. NAM LOOKS MUCH OVERDONE WITH MLCAPE UPWARDS OF
1700J/KG. TEMPS SUN SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SAT...EXCEPT A LITTLE
COOLER OVER THE KEWEENAW WITH ANTICIPATION OF WINDS VEERING MORE OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF FRONT ARRIVING THERE IN THE LATER AFTN. IF
FRONT IS A LITTLE FASTER...THERE WILL BE SHARP COOLING ACROSS THE N
IN THE AFTN.
SUN NIGHT/MON...A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA IS
FCST TO DIG INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...ENHANCING THE POST FRONTAL
PCPN AND HOLDING UP PROGRESSION OF COLD FRONT UNTIL THE WAVE PASSES.
INCLUDED CHC POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE N SUN NIGHT (LIKELY ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW OVERNIGHT) AS BEST FRONTOGENESIS FORCING IS STILL INDICATED
TO BE JUST N OF THE AREA. ON MON...BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY ACROSS
THE N AND E IN THE MORNING WHERE BEST FORCING IS EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE...MON WILL BE A SHARPLY COLDER DAY WITH RAIN AND BLUSTERY
N WINDS OFF CHILLY LAKE SUPERIOR. TEMPS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE IN THE
40S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE N. TEMPS COULD STILL
SURGE UP WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FAR SCNTRL IF THE COLD FRONT
DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL LATE MORNING OR AFTN.
PCPN WILL EXIT MON NIGHT...THOUGH SOME UPSLOPE -RA/-DZ MAY HOLD ON
ACROSS THE N GIVEN ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. POST FRONTAL LOW
CLOUDS MAY THEN PLAGUE THE AREA INTO AT LEAST PART OF TUE AS MODELS
INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING.
TROF DEVELOPING INTO THE WRN CONUS MID WEEK WILL SEND ONE PIECE OF
ENERGY N INTO THE NRN PLAINS TUE/EARLY WED BEFORE TROF BEGINS TO
SHIFT TOWARD THE CNTRL CONUS. LEAD WAVE MAY SPREAD SHRA INTO WRN
UPPER MI WED...BUT EXPECT BETTER POTENTIAL FOR PCPN TO ARRIVE THU AS
MAIN TROF MOVES OUT OVER THE PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014
FOG HAS BEEN STAYING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING AND WITH SUNRISE OCCURRING SHORTLY...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG TO DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS MORNING. WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AT ALL
SITES. THERE MAY BE A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS AT KIWD/KCMX THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...KCMX WILL SEE AN EASTERLY LAKE BREEZE
AFFECT THE SITE IN THE AFTERNOON. FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ALL THREE
SITES AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT
KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014
A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE STRETCHING A RIDGE NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
(BELOW 20KTS) INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT
WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL
THEN PLACE A RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...LEADING TO DIMINISHING WINDS.
FINALLY...WITH MORE MOIST AIR BEGINNING TO WORK NORTH OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
958 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014
JUST COMPLETED THE FIRST MINOR UPDATE OF THE DAY. AS
EXPECTED...THERE WAS SOME PATCHY FOG MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 EARLY
THIS MORNING BUT IT WAS NOT NEARLY AS DENSE/IMPACTFUL AS THURS AM.
PRECIP-WISE...STILL EXPECTING A DRY DAY CWA-WIDE BUT AM KEEPING A
WARY ON A SMATTERING OF MID-LEVEL CUMULUS THAT ARE SKIRTING ACROSS
THE YORK/POLK COUNTY AREA AT THIS TIME...AS THE MEANDERING MID
LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST TO THE EAST OVER IA/MO SEEMS TO BE JUST
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KICK UP THESE CLOUDS...AND EVEN SOME ONGOING
ISOLATED SHOWERS CLOSER TO ITS CORE. TEMP-WISE...BASED ON WHAT
HAPPENED YESTERDAY WHEN HIGHS ROSE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
EXPECTED...ALREADY DECIDED TO BUMP UP TODAYS HIGHS GENERALLY 1-2
DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN SEVERAL AREAS. THIS COULD BRING
A BIT GREATER COVERAGE OF MID-80S VERSUS LOWER-80S...BUT THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
82-86.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014
DRY/QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.
ALOFT...THE PATTERN FEATURED UPPER RIDGING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THRU THE DAKOTAS/UPPER MIDWEST REGION...AND TO THE SOUTHEAST AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED IN NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IA. FARTHER
UPSTREAM...AN UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING INLAND TO THE WEST COAST. AT
THE SURFACE...SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW WAS IN PLACE IN BETWEEN A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION AND A RIDGE WELL EAST
OF THE MO/MS RIVERS.
HAVE BEEN MONITORING OBSERVATIONAL DATA THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS FOR
SIGNS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AS TEMP/DP SPREADS CLOSE IN...AND SO FAR
THE LOWEST VSBY RESTRICTION HAVE BEEN AROUND 7SM. SHORT TERM
FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST OUR NORTHERN ZONES INTO NE NEB STAND THE
BETTER CHC FOR THE LOWER VSBYS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY
FOG POTENTIAL HERE.
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
KS IS PROGGED TO RETROGRADE/MEANDER TO THE NW INTO NORTHERN
IA/EASTERN NEB WHILE TO THE WEST...THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH DEEPENS
WITH THE LOW CLOSING OFF IN CA. THE WEATHER REGIME WILL BECOME
BLOCKED DUE TO THE WESTERN TROUGH AND AN EAST COAST RIDGE...WITH
THE INTERIOR CONUS IN BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS. EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO
PREVAIL FOR OUR AREA...DESPITE THE RAP WHICH TRIES TO GENERATE
MINOR QPF/PCPN JUST TO OUR EAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MEANDERING
UPPER LOW. HAVE INCREASED SKY GRIDS/CLOUDS TO SOME DEGREE
TODAY/TONIGHT WITH THE WESTWARD MOVING SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING THIS AFTN JUST ABOVE H85 WITH
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER AROUND 20KTS. THE SFC GRADIENT ALSO
TIGHTENS AND EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY/GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS AFTN. HARD TO ARGUE WITH CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS FOR
BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT AND LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE. AFTN HIGHS IN
THE LOW/MID 80S LOOK ON TARGET IN THE MILD FALL AIRMASS...WITH
LOWS STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE AN UPPER
RIDGE THAT WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM
SIDE.
DURING THIS TIME AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. THE FIRST UPPER WAVE FROM THIS LOT WILL START TO AFFECT THE
AREA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY AND AS A SURFACE LOW AND
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY BEFORE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A GRADUAL COOL DOWN WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD IS WHETHER OR NOT FOG WILL
DEVELOP OR NOT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR SO. VSBYS FOR THE MOST PART
HAVE BEEN UP ALL NIGHT HOWEVER WITHIN THE LAST HOUR KODX DROPPED
TO ONE QUARTER SM IN FOG. GENERALLY THINK THE FOG IS RATHER
LOCALIZED BUT WILL LEAVE IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AROUND 15KTS THIS
AFTN WITH GUSTS OF 20KTS POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING
THE EVENING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
519 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014
DRY/QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.
ALOFT...THE PATTERN FEATURED UPPER RIDGING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THRU THE DAKOTAS/UPPER MIDWEST REGION...AND TO THE SOUTHEAST AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED IN NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IA. FARTHER
UPSTREAM...AN UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING INLAND TO THE WEST COAST. AT
THE SURFACE...SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW WAS IN PLACE IN BETWEEN A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION AND A RIDGE WELL EAST
OF THE MO/MS RIVERS.
HAVE BEEN MONITORING OBSERVATIONAL DATA THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS FOR
SIGNS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AS TEMP/DP SPREADS CLOSE IN...AND SO FAR
THE LOWEST VSBY RESTRICTION HAVE BEEN AROUND 7SM. SHORT TERM
FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST OUR NORTHERN ZONES INTO NE NEB STAND THE
BETTER CHC FOR THE LOWER VSBYS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY
FOG POTENTIAL HERE.
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
KS IS PROGGED TO RETROGRADE/MEANDER TO THE NW INTO NORTHERN
IA/EASTERN NEB WHILE TO THE WEST...THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH DEEPENS
WITH THE LOW CLOSING OFF IN CA. THE WEATHER REGIME WILL BECOME
BLOCKED DUE TO THE WESTERN TROUGH AND AN EAST COAST RIDGE...WITH
THE INTERIOR CONUS IN BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS. EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO
PREVAIL FOR OUR AREA...DESPITE THE RAP WHICH TRIES TO GENERATE
MINOR QPF/PCPN JUST TO OUR EAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MEANDERING
UPPER LOW. HAVE INCREASED SKY GRIDS/CLOUDS TO SOME DEGREE
TODAY/TONIGHT WITH THE WESTWARD MOVING SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING THIS AFTN JUST ABOVE H85 WITH
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER AROUND 20KTS. THE SFC GRADIENT ALSO
TIGHTENS AND EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY/GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS AFTN. HARD TO ARGUE WITH CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS FOR
BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT AND LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE. AFTN HIGHS IN
THE LOW/MID 80S LOOK ON TARGET IN THE MILD FALL AIRMASS...WITH
LOWS STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE AN UPPER
RIDGE THAT WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM
SIDE.
DURING THIS TIME AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. THE FIRST UPPER WAVE FROM THIS LOT WILL START TO AFFECT THE
AREA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY AND AS A SURFACE LOW AND
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY BEFORE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A GRADUAL COOL DOWN WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 507 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD IS WHETHER OR NOT FOG WILL
DEVELOP OR NOT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR SO. VSBYS FOR THE MOST PART
HAVE BEEN UP ALL NIGHT HOWEVER WITHIN THE LAST HOUR KODX DROPPED
TO ONE QUARTER SM IN FOG. GENERALLY THINK THE FOG IS RATHER
LOCCALLIZED BUT WILL LEAVE IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AROUND 15KTS THIS
AFTN WITH GUSTS OF 20KTS POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING
THE EVENING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
629 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2014
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR conditions prevailing across most of West Central Texas early
this morning, but with a fairly widespread mixture of mid and high
clouds across the area. A few lower clouds have developed
underneath, patchy MVFR ceilings around 2k feet, but they are
having trouble becoming more widespread with all of the higher
clouds overhead. Ceilings should lower through the day across the
area, likely remaining in the low end VFR range, as showers and
thunderstorms become more widespread. Hard to pinpoint just when
and where they will develop, but models suggest they will be
fairly widespread near the southern terminals of KSOA, KJCT, and
KBBD (Sonora, Junction, and Brady) for a good portion of the
afternoon and evening hours.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Potent little upper level low is evident on water vapor imagery
across the Big Bend region early this morning. System will not be
moving fast, and will tend to wobble as shortwaves rotate around it,
but the general trend for the system to move slowly east. The GFS
for several days, and now the TTU WRF and the HRRR as well, show the
system finally tapping better low level moisture out of the Gulf of
Mexico to produce an expanding area of showers and storms this
afternoon and evening. Best chances look to be on the east and
northeast side of the low, so across the Trans Pecos and Del Rio
areas north into the Northern Edwards Plateau and Northwest Hill
Country. Have increased PoPs as far north as San Angelo and
Brownwood, but appears the best chances will be the I-10 corridor
from Ozona to Sonora to Junction.
Whatever does develop will likely linger into the evening hours. And
given the moisture and lift in place as the low itself treks across
the area, would not be surprised to see a few showers or storms linger
well into or even through the overnight hours.
LONG TERM...
/Saturday through Monday/
The upper level low(currently over the Big Bend) will open up into a
trough and move over east Texas by Saturday evening. However a few
showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday due to the slow
movement of this system and some weak instability over the southern
half of the area. Looks like a dry forecast for the end of the
weekend into the first part of next week. A weak upper level ridge
will be over the Southern Plains. Temperatures will be close to
seasonable values. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s with lows
in the 60s.
/Tuesday through next Friday/
A dry forecast is in store for the middle part of next week and then
a slight chance of rain next Thursday. A strong upper level trough
will settle into the western US early next week. The first piece of
energy(negative tilt shortwave) will lift out into the central and
northern Plains. This upper level system will miss West Central
Texas, however low level southerly flow will increase across the
area by mid week. The mean upper level trough axis will remain
across the western US and another piece of energy will drop into the
trough. this second shot of ascent will move out into the Plains
late next week. Also, a cold front will move east with the upper
level dynamics. There ECMWF is more amplified and further south with
the second system(affecting West Central Texas) then the GFS model.
For now, will go with a slight chance of thunderstorms mainly
Thursday across much of the area due to at least weak convergence
along the front and some instability.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 83 63 83 63 85 / 20 20 10 5 5
San Angelo 81 62 83 63 84 / 30 30 20 10 5
Junction 80 61 82 62 85 / 50 50 20 10 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
625 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR SCATTERED TO BROKEN SKY COVER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR MVFR AT KGLS THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON IF MORE THAN JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER OR
NEAR THE SITE. WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME EASTERLY LATER THIS MORNING...AND
THEN SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AT 3 AM...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO EXTENDED FROM ABOUT MATAGORDA BAY TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES EXTENDED S-SW INTO TEXAS AND CONTINUES TO BRING
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE NE HALF OF SE TX. AT 850 MB...HIGH
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A WELL
DEFINED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. DEEP 850
MB MSTR WAS LOCATED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. AT
700 MB...SLIGHTLY DEEPER MSTR WAS LOCATED OVER SW LA AND OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. AT 250 MB...A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS SW TOWARD THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A
FAIRLY STOUT JET WAS LOCATED ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. MODELS DIFFER WITH REGARD TO THE JET DYNAMICS TODAY WITH
THE NAM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A FAVORABLE JET POSITION
THAT FAVORS MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE LESS
FAVORABLE WITH WEAKER JET DYNAMICS AND BETTER LIFT TO THE SOUTH.
FEEL THE ECMWF INITIALIZED BETTER THAN BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SO
FEEL IT`S SOLN HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE DYNAMICS.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BEST MSTR OVER THE SW ZONES THIS MORNING
WITH SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING
THE AFTN. PW VALUES AND THE BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC
TROUGH ALSO LOOKS TO BE THIS MORNING. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE SW ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING
AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR AND ARW. LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. TRIMMED POPS AND PROBABLY WASN`T AGGRESSIVE
ENOUGH IN LOWERING RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY.
PW VALUES ON SATURDAY ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.60
INCHES. STILL LOOKS TOO DRY TO GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL.
DYNAMICS DON`T LOOK ALL THAT FAVORABLE SO WENT AGAIN WITH LOW
POPS WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. THE
WEAKNESS OVER TEXAS PHASES WITH A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP OVER TEXAS IN RESPONSE TO THE PHASING SYSTEM TO THE NORTH
AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO SE TX
FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. WILL APPROACH THE STATE ON FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
INCREASE AGAIN AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS APPEARS TO BE
HAVING SOME RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY ISSUES SO LEANED TOWARD THE
ECMWF. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER AND LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY AND SFC WINDS. 43
MARINE...
THE MAIN ISSUES WILL BE TIDE LEVELS AND WINDS.
TODAY THE HIGH TIDES WILL LIKELY REACH TO AROUND 3 FEET ABOVE THE
MEAN LOWER LOW WATER LEVEL AT BOTH FREEPORT AND THE GALVESTON BAY
ENTRANCE. THIS MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AREAS. THIS
SCENARIO MAY REPEAT AGAIN ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION
MAY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE...SWELLS MAY KEEP THE TIDE LEVELS SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED.
EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD BECOME NORTHEASTERLY NEAR THE COAST AND OVER
THE BAYS. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REACH CAUTION LEVELS
TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING ON SATURDAY.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 69 87 67 89 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 69 87 68 89 67 / 10 20 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 76 85 75 86 75 / 10 30 20 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
312 PM MST FRI SEP 26 2014
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.
&&
...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY...
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG PACIFIC STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO...AND ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM LATE TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
STORM...COMBINED WITH AMPLE LEFTOVER MONSOON MOISTURE...IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY STRONG...EVEN DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND HAIL. AFTER
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT...DRIER WEATHER WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE REGION
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
AFTER A QUIET MORNING...THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST AIRMASS FOR
LATE SEPTEMBER...PWATS IN THE 1.50-1.80 INCH RANGE...SOLAR
HEATING...AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO...IS NOW BEGINNING TO TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PIMA COUNTY...WITH SOME CELLS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO SW MARICOPA
COUNTY THIS HOUR. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR HI-RES MODEL IS NOW
MOVING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MARICOPA COUNTY THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING
AFTER SUNSET. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY
WINDS...AND BLOWING DUST.
THE MAIN EVENT...WHICH IS A STRONG PACIFIC LOW CENTER...IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR CWA BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...THEN
CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF A VERY RICH MOISTURE
ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE COLUMN...WITH
SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF UP TO 50KTS IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR
CWA LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE CO RIVER VALLEY AND OVER LA PAZ
COUNTY. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THESE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAIN
AND GUST WINDS...AND LOCAL FLOODING.
DEVELOPING STORM DYNAMICS...WITH INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING
PHOENIX...FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS ON
SATURDAY...WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPING SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ
IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN...THE
COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE DIFLUENT FLOW...SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AS HIGH AS 50KTS...AND FAVORABLE TIME-OF-DAY...DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...IS EXPECTED TO MAXIMIZE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORM ACTIVITY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND LARGE HAIL.
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION...THERE IS NOT A GREAT DEAL OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THROUGH
THE COLUMN...WHICH SHOULD MINIMIZE THE TORNADO THREAT...WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
SOME COMPARISONS HAVE ALREADY BEEN MADE BETWEEN THIS UPCOMING EVENT
AND THE ONE THAT OCCURRED BACK ON 05 OCT 2010...WHICH BROUGHT SEVERE
HAIL...UP TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO
THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERNS
APPEAR TO BE SIMILAR FOR BOTH EVENTS...THE OCT 2010 EVENT HAD COLDER
AIR AT THE MID-LEVELS TO WORK WITH...500MB TEMPS DURING THAT EVENT
WERE AROUND -14C...WHILE 500MB TEMPS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND -9C. THE PARENT UPPER LOW CENTER DURING THE 2010 EVENT ALSO
TRACKED A BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...FROM PALMDALE CA TO LAS
VEGAS...THEN INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL UT. THIS EVENT IS TAKING THE UPPER
LOW CENTER FROM THE SFO BAY AREA ESE-WARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
NV...THEN INTO SOUTHERN UT. ON THE OTHER HAND...SATURDAY/S EVENT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WITH PWATS IN THE
1.50-1.75 INCH RANGE...AS COMPARED TO AMOUNTS IN THE 1.25-1.50 INCH
DURING THE 2010 EVENT.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AS
THE SFC FRONT PASSES THOUGH AND DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE
WEST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
SUNDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY DUE TO LOCAL
UPSLOPE FLOW AND ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR...TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING UNTIL AROUND 03Z...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUD DECKS
GENERALLY AOA 7000FT PERSISTING OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOCAL CIGS
MAY DROP TO 6000FT WITH STRONGER CELLS...AND VISIBILITY BRIEFLY
LOWER TO 2SM IN HEAVY RAIN OR BLDU. SHEAR PROFILES ALOFT ALSO
SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY
NEAR KBLH...HOWEVER ISOLD STORMS COULD IMPACT ALL TERMINALS AT SOME
TIME THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS UP TO 55KT
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HAIL. LIGHTER WINDS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT...
BUT WITH A LINGERING/REMOTE THREAT FOR SHOWERS. LATE SATURDAY
MORNING...SURFACE WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE AFTER 15Z WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH THE AREA-WIDE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH LITTLE TO
NO CHANCE OF CONVECTION THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL TREND DOWN TO AROUND 15 PERCENT
BY THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE DRIER AIR...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SOME GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND BEHIND THE TROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS/MCLANE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
310 PM MST FRI SEP 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...
AND HEAVY RAINFALL. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
ONGOING WEST TO SOUTH OF TUCSON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TOHONO
O`ODHAM NATION SEWD INTO SANTA CRUZ COUNTY. MEANWHILE...MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS FAR WRN PIMA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE
OF SAFFORD. GIVEN THE VERY SLOW STORM MOVEMENTS...HAVE TO AGREE WITH
THE 20Z RUC HRRR DEPICTION OF CONTINUED SHOWERS/TSTMS MOSTLY WEST-
TO-SOUTH OF TUCSON DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ANY RAINFALL OF
SIGNIFICANCE ACROSS THE TUCSON METRO AREA INTO THIS EVENING. FOR
NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR
TUCSON THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED POPS LATE
TONIGHT. THE BULK OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS PROGGED TO END ACROSS THE AREA
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS ESSENTIALLY FROM TUCSON WWD/NWD LATE TONIGHT.
THE FOCUS OF ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TOWARD THE UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED
LOW PROGGED TO MOVE EWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN/SWRN CONUS SAT. AMPLE
MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SHOULD
PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS...ESPECIALLY SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS EXISTS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL AZ. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS PINAL
COUNTY...WITH A LESSER CHANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
ISSUANCE AS FAR EAST AS GRAHAM/GREENLEE COUNTIES.
GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CERTAINLY BE A
POSSIBILITY WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW IS
PROGGED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER NEVADA SAT NIGHT-SUN. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS ERN SECTIONS SUN...AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR THE TUCSON METRO AREA. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL SUN ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY.
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN OVER UTAH/IDAHO MON MORNING AND
EJECT EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES MON NIGHT. THE BULK OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
WILL TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST SUN NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS OF GREENLEE/GRAHAM/
COCHISE COUNTIES MON. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL MON NIGHT-FRI
UNDER WLY/NWLY FLOW ALOFT.
A COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/00Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS OF 50-55
KTS WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL
GENERALLY BE AT 4-10K FT AGL. SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS
THAN 10 KTS THRU TONIGHT...THEN SURFACE WIND SATURDAY WILL BE SLY/
SWLY 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...SOME CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND HAIL...WILL OCCUR SATURDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS AREA WIDE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
FRANCIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
300 PM MST FRI SEP 26 2014
...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY...
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG PACIFIC STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO...AND ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM LATE TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
STORM...COMBINED WITH AMPLE LEFTOVER MONSOON MOISTURE...IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY STRONG...EVEN DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND HAIL. AFTER
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT...DRIER WEATHER WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE REGION
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
AFTER A QUIET MORNING...THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST AIRMASS FOR
LATE SEPTEMBER...PWATS IN THE 1.50-1.80 INCH RANGE...SOLAR
HEATING...AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO...IS NOW BEGINNING TO TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PIMA COUNTY...WITH SOME CELLS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO SW MARICOPA
COUNTY THIS HOUR. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR HI-RES MODEL IS NOW
MOVING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MARICOPA COUNTY THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING
AFTER SUNSET. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY
WINDS...AND BLOWING DUST.
THE MAIN EVENT...WHICH IS A STRONG PACIFIC LOW CENTER...IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR CWA BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...THEN
CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF A VERY RICH MOISTURE
ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE COLUMN...WITH
SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF UP TO 50KTS IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR
CWA LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE CO RIVER VALLEY AND OVER LA PAZ
COUNTY. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THESE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAIN
AND GUST WINDS...AND LOCAL FLOODING.
DEVELOPING STORM DYNAMICS...WITH INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING
PHOENIX...FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS ON
SATURDAY...WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPING SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ
IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN...THE
COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE DIFLUENT FLOW...SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AS HIGH AS 50KTS...AND FAVORABLE TIME-OF-DAY...DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...IS EXPECTED TO MAXIMIZE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORM ACTIVITY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND LARGE HAIL.
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION...THERE IS NOT A GREAT DEAL OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THROUGH
THE COLUMN...WHICH SHOULD MINIMIZE THE TORNADO THREAT...WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
SOME COMPARISONS HAVE ALREADY BEEN MADE BETWEEN THIS UPCOMING EVENT
AND THE ONE THAT OCCURRED BACK ON 05 OCT 2010...WHICH BROUGHT SEVERE
HAIL...UP TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO
THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERNS
APPEAR TO BE SIMILAR FOR BOTH EVENTS...THE OCT 2010 EVENT HAD COLDER
AIR AT THE MID-LEVELS TO WORK WITH...500MB TEMPS DURING THAT EVENT
WERE AROUND -14C...WHILE 500MB TEMPS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND -9C. THE PARENT UPPER LOW CENTER DURING THE 2010 EVENT ALSO
TRACKED A BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...FROM PALMDALE CA TO LAS
VEGAS...THEN INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL UT. THIS EVENT IS TAKING THE UPPER
LOW CENTER FROM THE SFO BAY AREA ESE-WARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
NV...THEN INTO SOUTHERN UT. ON THE OTHER HAND...SATURDAY/S EVENT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WITH PWATS IN THE
1.50-1.75 INCH RANGE...AS COMPARED TO AMOUNTS IN THE 1.25-1.50 INCH
DURING THE 2010 EVENT.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AS
THE SFC FRONT PASSES THOUGH AND DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE
WEST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
SUNDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY DUE TO LOCAL
UPSLOPE FLOW AND ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR...TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAVORED HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. SOME OF THESE STORMS
SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE PHOENIX AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY AFFECTING AREA TERMINALS. A REMOTE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH ONLY A SMALL WINDOW OF WESTERLY DIRECTIONAL FLOW MAINLY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH THE BEST CHANCE GENERALLY BETWEEN 21Z-03Z
TODAY...AND FAVORING THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY BE STRONG...POTENTIALLY PRODUCING STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS. A SMALL CHANCE OF MAINLY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT
IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA SOME TIME SATURDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF PHOENIX...ARE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE REGION. DRIER AIR
WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE
OF CONVECTION THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AFTERNOON MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 20 PERCENT ON
SUNDAY...AND THEN TREND TO AROUND 15 PERCENT BY THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE DRIER AIR...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. SOME GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY...THOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
910 AM MST FRI SEP 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK FOR STRONGER AND WETTER STORMS ON
SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER NEXT WEEK AS THE MONSOON SEASON COMES TO
A CLOSE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
ONGOING ACROSS SRN GRAHAM/NRN COCHISE COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.
MEANWHILE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. AMPLE MOISTURE
WAS ACROSS SE AZ WITH DEWPOINTS VALID 16Z GENERALLY IN THE LOWER-
MID 60S F. 26/12Z KTWC SOUNDING PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS 1.53 INCHES...
NEARLY ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH HIGHER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. THE
ENVIRONMENT WAS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS 5
AND UNMODIFIED SBCAPE OF 1830 J/KG. MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW WILL
FAVOR GENERALLY SWWD STORM MOTIONS. 26/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICTED
DEEP TROUGH ADJACENT THE WEST COAST...AND RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM
SRN AZ NEWD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
26/13Z RUC HRRR AND 26/12Z UNIV OF AZ WRF-NAM WERE SIMILAR WITH
DEPICTING A GENERAL DECREASE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS ERN SECTIONS
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...THESE SOLUTIONS WERE
SIMILAR WITH DEVELOPING FAIRLY STRONG SHOWERS/TSTMS TO OCCUR MOSTLY
WEST TO SOUTH OF TUCSON EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RUC HRRR THEN
FAVORS WRN/CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY AS WELL AS GREENLEE COUNTY FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE INHERITED
POPS SEEM REASONABLE...ALTHOUGH MAY INCREASE VALUES ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WRN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. A GENERAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD THEN OCCUR TONIGHT.
THE FOCUS OF ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TOWARD THE UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED
LOW PROGGED TO MOVE EWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN/SWRN CONUS SAT. AMPLE
MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SHOULD
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ESPECIALLY SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE TSTMS WILL EXIST MAINLY
NORTH OF TUCSON. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER NEVADA SAT NIGHT-SUN. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/
TSTMS ACROSS ERN SECTIONS SUN...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
FOR THE TUCSON METRO AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUN ACROSS
WRN PIMA COUNTY.
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN SUN NIGHT AND EJECT EWD INTO THE
NRN ROCKIES MON. THE BULK OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL TAPER FROM WEST TO
EAST SUN NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS OF GREENLEE/GRAHAM/COCHISE COUNTIES MON. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL MON NIGHT-THUR UNDER WLY/NWLY FLOW
ALOFT.
HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEARLY 2-5 DEGS F COOLER VERSUS
THUR. A COOLING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY
WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/12Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL THRU 26/19Z...MAINLY EAST OF A KFHU
TO KSAD LINE...OTHERWISE SKC CONDITIONS. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 6-10K FT
AGL DEVELOPING AFT 26/19Z AND PERSISTING TIL 27/05Z. DECREASING
CLOUDS EXPECTED AFT 27/05Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA AFT
26/20Z...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTHEAST OF KTUS...AND ALSO
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF KTUS. THE BULK OF THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL END AROUND 27/04Z FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA LATE
TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. MORE NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE IS THEN
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 KTS
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 27/12Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...
WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
NEXT WEEK AS THE 2014 MONSOON SEASON COMES TO AN END. THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. OTHERWISE...
20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TODAY...AND SOUTHWEST AT 10
TO 20 MPH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
405 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...H85-H70 THETA-E BNDRY DRAPED OVER THE NE FL AND THE BIG
BEND COUPLED WITH A BAND OF +SHRAS/TSRAS OVER N LAKE/VOLUSIA
COUNTIES SUGGEST THE STUBBORN FRONTAL BNDRY HAS RETREATED N OF THE
I-4 CORRIDOR. DEEPENING E/SE FLOW WILL PULL SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS
UPSTREAM H100-H70 MEAN RH REMAINS AOA 75PCT WHILE A BROAD AREA OF
ENHANCED H85-H50 VORTICITY CONTINUES TO BLANKET THE CENTRAL/SRN
PENINSULA. UPR LVLS NOT IN PLAY OVERNIGHT AS H30-H20 WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO ARND 10KTS OVER MOST OF CENTRAL FL.
WITH LIMITED MID/UPR LVL DYNAMIC SUPPORT...PRECIP OVER THE INTERIOR
WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE EVNG AS THE CURRENT CONVECTION BURNS UP THE
AVAILABLE ENERGY WELL BEFORE SUNSET. THE ONSHORE FLOW...MOISTURE...
AND INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE TO ALLOW CHC/SLGT CHC OF COASTAL
SHRAS...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A SE STEERING COMPONENT THAT
WILL CARRY ANY ACTIVITY UP THE COAST RATHER THAN PUSHING IT INLAND.
WILL END PRECIP OVER THE INTERIOR BY 02Z...CONTG ALONG THE COAST
OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZE KEEP MIN TEMPS IN
THE L/M70S.
SAT-SAT NIGHT...
WEAK RIDGING WILL NUDGE INTO THE LCL ATLC AS THE INVERTED TROF
OVERHEAD PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL GOMEX SFC. DEEP E/SE FLOW WILL PUSH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO CENTRAL FL...THOUGH PWAT VALUES WILL ONLY
DIMINISH TO ARND 2.0". TEMP PROFILE WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK AS
UPSTREAM H70 TEMPS INCREASE TO ARND 9C...H50 TO ARND -5C...YIELDING
LAPSE RATES ARND 5.6C/KM AT BEST. STILL...THE WIND FIELDS REFLECT A
FAIRLY TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN OF DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH THE
ERLY FLOW FORCING PRECIP TOWARD THE W FL COAST THRU THE DAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS NEAR THE EAST COAST IN THE
MORNING WILL SHIFT INLAND...POPS WILL REFLECT THIS MOTION WITH 40PCT
NEAR THE COAST AND 50PCT INTERIOR. LCL HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL
CONTINUE AS THE H85-H50 STEERING FLOW WILL NOT SUPPORT WRLY STORM
MOTION MUCH HIGHER THAN 10MPH. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S COAST TO NEAR 90 OVER THE
INTERIOR.
SUN-SUN NIGHT...(PREV DISC)
DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS E CENTRAL FL WITH LOW LVL SE FLOW AND
THE GFS MODEL INDICATING SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE NRN
GULF COAST LATE IN THE DAY. APPEARS ANOTHER MID LVL S/W DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE SRN PENINSULA WILL LEAD TO A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
AFTERNOON FOR E CENTRAL FL WITH MID LVL FLOW FROM S/SSW FOCUSING
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA BY AFTERNOON AND OVER THE
INTERIOR IN THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL AGAIN
BE A CONCERN WITH STORMS MOVING FROM THE SOUTH TO NORTH AT AROUND 10
MPH.
EXTENDED...(PREV DISC)
MON-TUE...HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
A 500 MB S/W TROUGH ACROSS THE SE STATES ALLOWS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE MONDAY AND MOVE ENE OFF
THE GA/SC COAST BY TUE AFTERNOON. GFS INDICATES SEVERAL MID LVL
IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN
S/W TROUGH TO THE NORTH. WITH DEEP MOISTURE RETURNING OVER FL FROM
THE ERN GULF AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY MONDAY AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AS WELL AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FRONT. WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST
CENTRAL FL THE PAST WEEK...THE RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH
STORMS APPEARS LIKELY LEADING TO THE RISK OF FLOODING AS WE STAY IN
THE WET PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WED-FRI...00Z GFS/ECMWF BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE DEEP MOISTURE AND COOL FRONT INTO MID
WEEK TO LATE. THE GFS BRINGS SOME A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS
NRN/CENTRAL SECTIONS WED/THU WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS DEEP MOISTURE
OVER CENTRAL FL. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A BLEND OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS
WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LINGERING WED/THU ACROSS THE SOUTH
HALF OF THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO INTO FRIDAY
WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...
WINDS: THRU 27/01Z...N OF KMLB-KISM E/NE ARND 10KTS BCMG E...S OF
KMLB-KISM E/SE ARND 10KTS. BTWN 27/01Z-27/04Z...BCMG E/NE AOB 5KTS
ALL SITES...CONTG THRU 27/13Z. AFT 27/13Z...E/SE 8-12KTS ALL SITES.
CIGS/VSBYS: THRU 27/00Z...NW OF KMLB-KOBE NMRS MVFR/SCT IFR
SHRAS/ISOLD LIFR TSRAS...E OF KMLB-KOBE ISOLD MVFR SHRAS...STORM
MOTION NW ARND 10KTS. BTWN 17/00Z-17/03Z...N OF KMLB-KOBE SCT MVFR
SHRAS/ISOLD IFR TSRAS...S OF KMLB-KOBE ISOLD MVFR SHRAS. AFT
17/03Z...ISOLD MVFR SHRAS COASTAL SITES...VFR INTERIOR SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS RETREATED INTO THE NRN PENINSULA/BIG
BEND REGION...ALLOWING A LIGHT TO GENTLE E/SE BREEZE TO DVLP ACRS
THE LCL ATLC IN ITS WAKE. WIND BCMG GENTLE TO MODERATE OVERNIGHT AS
A WEAK OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BEGINS TO DAMPEN OUT AS HI PRES BUILDS
OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE...
MAINLY DUE TO A 2-3FT ERLY SWELL...DOMINANT PERIODS ARND 8SEC.
SAT-TUE...E WNDS 10-15KTS KNOTS ON SAT BCMG SE ARND 10KTS FOR SUN.
SEAS 3FT NEAR SHORE TO 4FT OFFSHORE IN AN ERLY SWELL. WINDS BCMG
S/SW ON MON AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. FRONT WILL PUSH INTO N FL ON
TUE WITH W/SW WINDS INCRSG TO 10-15KTS. HIGHER PRECIP COVERAGE
MON-TUE WITH STORMS MVG OFFSHORE EAST AFTN. SEAS 3FT NEAR SHORE AND
UP TO AROUND 4 FT OFFSHORE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ST JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR REMAINS WITHIN ACTION STAGE AS OF FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT WAS HELPING TO CONTRIBUTE TO
THE HIGH RIVER LEVELS ON THURSDAY HAS ABATED...HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN
OVER THE BASIN NEAR ASTOR WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE RIVER LEVEL
ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LEVELS WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW ACTION STAGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SHINGLE CREEK NEAR CAMPBELL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FALL AS OF FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...RECENT HEAVY RAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
CAUSE THE RIVER TO LEVEL OFF...IF NOT SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THIS
EVENING REMAINING JUST BELOW ACTION STAGE. THIS AREA IS MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FASTER RISES THAN THE ST JOHNS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND RUN LOCAL MODEL AS NEEDED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...ANY HEAVY RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND MAY
AGGRAVATE ANY ONGOING STANDING WATER ISSUES AND LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
MINOR FLOODING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 74 87 77 89 / 30 40 30 50
MCO 74 91 75 91 / 30 50 20 50
MLB 77 87 78 88 / 30 40 30 50
VRB 75 89 77 90 / 30 40 30 50
LEE 74 92 75 91 / 30 50 20 50
SFB 74 92 75 92 / 30 50 20 50
ORL 75 92 76 92 / 30 50 20 50
FPR 76 88 77 89 / 30 40 30 50
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
RADAR/IMPACT WX.......CRISTALDI
HYDROLOGY.............ULRICH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
230 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND
UNPROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA. MAIN FLOW
ARRIVES WITHIN A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEFORE
QUICKLY RIDGING WELL NORTH INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THE FLOW THEN
FLATTENS OUT DOWNSTREAM AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY THE TIME IT
REACHES THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SOUTH OF THIS MAIN FLOW WE FIND A
WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF NEW ENGLAND OVERTOP AN
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS COAST. OUR FORECAST
REGION REMAINS ON THE VERY WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
CIRCULATION...ALTHOUGH THE 26/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE DOES NOT
SHOW MUCH CONSISTENCY WITH THE WIND DIRECTION THROUGH ANY DEPTH OF
THE COLUMN.
AS ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS...THE PW HAS BEEN RISING AND IS NOW
OVER 2.2" AT KTBW...AND APPROACHING 2.4" AT KMFL. AS WOULD BE
EXPECTED WITH SUCH A MOIST PROFILE...LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY
POOR...GENERALLY IN THE VICINITY OF MOIST ADIABATIC THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COLUMN. THEREFORE...THE COLUMN IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION...BUT UNFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE TYPE UPDRAFTS. THIS IS NOT
TO SAY THAT A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE NOT POSSIBLE GIVEN PROPER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING TO INCREASE THE CAPE POTENTIAL...
HOWEVER...OVERALL THESE TYPE OF STORMS SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN
LATE TODAY. THE GREATER THREAT FROM TODAYS STORMS WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME SPOTS HAVE SEEN
CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL ALREADY THIS WEEK...AND WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY SHOULD ANOTHER HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OCCUR NEARBY.
BASED ON DISCUSSION OF CONDITIONS WITH COUNTY OFFICIALS...A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR POLK...HIGHLANDS...AND HARDEE
COUNTIES THROUGH THE EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE...PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PROVIDING A SHALLOW LAYER OF
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW BETWEEN A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH AND AN INVERTED TROUGH PROGRESSING WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH A FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE
(OR AT LEAST DEVELOPING COASTAL SPEED CONVERGENCE) WILL PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR ACTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
REGIONAL RADARS ARE ALREADY GETTING QUITE ACTIVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR CENTRAL PENINSULA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND MIGRATE WEST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
HIGH RAIN CHANCES INTO THE EARLY EVENING STILL LOOK ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
TONIGHT...
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT / EVENING HOURS SHOULD STILL SEE SOME SCT
STORMS ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND TOWARD THE COAST WITH THE
ACTIVITY SLOWLY MIGRATING OFFSHORE INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THE SECOND
HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY OVER THE LAND ZONES WITH
CONTINUED SHOWERS/STORMS ONGOING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S NORTH AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S SOUTH.
SATURDAY...
THE DAY WILL START OFF WITH WITH MOSTLY DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS
OVER THE LAND ZONES...WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH (OVER THE EASTERN
GULF) KEEPS THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS/STORM GOING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. TWO THINGS CHANGE ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO
TODAY. FIRST...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL NOW BE PAST THE FL PENINSULA
AND CONTINUE TO MIGRATE WESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. SECOND...THE
EASTERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER AND
MORE DEFINED. LOOKS AS THOUGH THIS FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PREVENT MUCH OF A SEA-BREEZE FROM FORMING...OR WILL KEEP AND FEEBLE
CIRCULATION PINNED AT OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST. SO...WE ARE
LOSING SOME OF OUR FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. THIS
EFFECT WILL BE MOST FELT INLAND FROM THE I-75 CORRIDOR. IN
ANTICIPATION OF AT LEAST MEAGER ENHANCED CONVERGENCE RIGHT AT THE
COAST...WILL HAVE BEST SHOWER/STORM CHANCES SATURDAY MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING ALONG AND WEST THE I-75 CORRIDOR. FURTHER
INLAND WILL HAVE LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND DIMINISH THOSE RAIN CHANCES
EARLIER. THE COLUMN WILL STILL BE QUITE MOIST WITH PW VALUES WELL
ABOVE 2". SO...THE COLUMN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION SHOULD
THE PROPER LOW LEVEL TRIGGER BE IN PLACE. GOOD AGREEMENT IN BOTH THE
STATISTICAL AND CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUITES IN THIS WEST TO
EAST POP GRADIENT...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS WITHIN A DEGREE OR 2 EITHER
SIDE OF 90.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIODS. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL HOLD IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW THEN SETTING UP ACROSS THE
PENINSULA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SKIRTS BY TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
STATES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN LOOKS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL START THE LONG TERM PERIODS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...AND SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN
BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ALONG
AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY TO THE FORECAST
AREA...NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN OF
LATE...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN COASTAL LOCALES MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOWEVER...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA SUPPRESSING THE MEAN SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF
THE STATE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW PROGRESSING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE PENINSULA. KPGD/KFMY/KRSW ARE ALREADY SEEING THE
INCLEMENT WEATHER...AND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS UP INTO THE TAMPA BAY
REGION WILL SEE THE ACTIVITY ARRIVE DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON
HOURS. AWAY FROM THE STORMS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT A
BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL MIGRATE OFF THE COAST WITHIN A FEW HOURS
OF SUNSET WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER
THE AREA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST AND BE A THREAT TO THE COASTAL WATERS
TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS
AGAIN TODAY WITH A MILD SEA BREEZE AFFECT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
DAY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN
THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE SUMMER-LIKE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH OF THE NEXT FEW MORNING...HOWEVER
NO WIDESPREAD FOG OR VISIBILITY ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 75 89 76 89 / 40 60 40 50
FMY 74 90 74 91 / 30 60 20 60
GIF 74 90 74 90 / 20 50 20 50
SRQ 75 90 74 89 / 50 60 40 50
BKV 73 91 72 90 / 30 60 30 60
SPG 77 89 77 89 / 50 60 40 50
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR HARDEE-
HIGHLANDS-POLK.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
MARINE...DOUGHERTY
LONG TERM...JELSEMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
124 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014
.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND
LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST TAF SITES.
THERE ARE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE GULF COAST. GIVEN THIS, HAVE DROPPED VCSH AND ANY VCTS FOR THE
EAST COAST FOR NOW, AND KEPT THE TEMPO GROUP FOR KAPF. HOWEVER,
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CONDITIONS AND IF CONVECTION
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST COAST, WILL HAVE TO AMEND THOSE
TAFS TO INDICATE THAT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014/
UPDATE...
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE PALM BEACH COUNTY IS
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE MAINLAND. LATEST HRRR INITIALIZES FAIRLY WELL AND DOES
DEPICT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASING ACROSS THE INTERIOR OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH HEATING. TWEAKED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS THROUGH
18Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDING. UPDATE SENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
ATLANTIC RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO BUILD BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A WEAK SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH LOCATED ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THIS HAS CONTINUED AN ACTIVE PATTERN OF OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST
COAST WITH SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. THERE IS A LITTLE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PATTERN OF DEVELOPMENT FOR THE REST OF
TODAY AS THE GFS DOES NOT DRY THE ATMOSPHERE AS IN PAST RUNS
KEEPING THE PWAT CLOSE TO 2" AND WITH A MUCH SHALLOWER EASTERLY
FLOW. THIS WOULD TRANSLATE TO A CONTINUATION OF POSSIBLE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE
DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW AND WITH PWAT LOWERING TO AROUND 1.75". THE
00Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWED THE DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE AT THAT
TIME AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO BELIEVE MUCH WOULD CHANGE IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FOR THIS REASON, WOULD TEND TO LEAN TOWARDS THE
GFS SOLUTION. IN THIS THINKING, THE HRRR DOES KEEP THE EAST COAST
RATHER ACTIVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING INLAND
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT IMAGERY
DOES SHOW SOME DRYING HEADED OUR WAY BUT IT IS NOT SIGNIFICANT WITH
LEADING EDGE STILL ROUGHLY 250 MILES TO OUR EAST. SO AM A LITTLE
RELUCTANT TO SAY AT THIS TIME MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOWER POPS BUT IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVIER RAINS WILL BE DURING
THE MORNING NEAR THE EAST COAST AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH SOME SLOW DRYING OCCURRING IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL ALSO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE REGION AS THE WEAK TROUGH FADES
AWAY WITH LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT. EVEN THOUGH SOME DRYING WILL OCCUR,
PWAT`S WILL BE AT NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE SEPTEMBER NEAR 1.75". THE
GFS KEEPS THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RATHER SHALLOW ON SATURDAY BUT THEN
DEEPENS IT ON SUNDAY. SO THE PATTERN COULD STILL FAVOR ATLANTIC
ACTIVITY DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS PUSHING ONSHORE ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND THEN FAVORING INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AREAS EACH AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT NEXT WEEK IN
DEVELOPING CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION WITH A STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES EARLY IN
THE WEEK. THE CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN WILL SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE
TO OUR SOUTH AND THIS WILL PLACE SOUTH FLORIDA IN A WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH PWAT`S RUNNING IN THE
1.75-2" RANGE. SO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE SOME
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ONCE AGAIN ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD.
MARINE...
A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE FLOW WILL THEN VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE GETS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3 FEET IN THE
ATLANTIC WITH 2 FEET OR LESS OVER THE GULF WATERS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 86 78 83 / 20 30 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 88 79 88 / 20 30 30 40
MIAMI 78 88 77 88 / 20 30 20 20
NAPLES 76 90 76 90 / 30 60 30 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...13/SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
357 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR
THE WEST COAST AND A PROMINENT RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO NRN
ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...WEAK SRLY FLOW WAS OBSERVED THROUGH WI AND
UPPER MI BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER LAKE HURON AND A TROUGH THROUGH THE
WRN PLAINS. VIS LOOP INDICATED SCT CU UPSTREAM OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. OTHERWISE...COMPLETELY CLEAR
SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. DEWPOINTS WERE GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER 50S...WITH SOME HIGHER VALUES IN THE MID 50S OVER THE EAST
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
TONIGHT...WITH THE UPPER AND SFC RIDGE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
AREA...EXPECT FOG TO REDEVELOP IN AREAS SIMILAR TO THU NIGHT...WITH
THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES OVER THE CNTRAL AND EAST AND ESPECIALLY
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
SAT...A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
FAR NRN ONTARIO TO SRN HUDSON BAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TO NEAR
CYPL. SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT WILL KEEP THE WARM AIR ACROSS THE
CWA. AFTER ANY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF...SUNNY SKIES WILL AGAIN
DOMINATE THE AREA. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MIXING TO AROUND 850
MB (TEMPS AROUND 14C) WILL SUPPORT MAX READINGS INT THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80.
&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014
THE RELATIVELY WARM STREAK SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL COME TO AN
END EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S.
SATURDAY NIGHT...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE REGION AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STRETCHES
FROM NORTH DAKOTA TO HUDSON BAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER
IN PRECIP CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A CONTINUED INCREASE OF SFC
MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT...FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
INTERIOR CENTRAL AND EAST. HOWEVER...DAYTIME MIXING ON SATURDAY MAY
LOWER DEWPOINTS FARTHER THAN MODELS ARE INDICATING. THIS LIKELY WILL
NOT BE REALIZED UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG.
SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL INCH CLOSER TO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD HOLD OFF REACHING THE KEWEENAW UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING. SUNDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY IN THIS WARM STRETCH. WITH 850
HPA TEMPS STILL 12 TO 14C ACROSS THE CWA...HIGHS WILL BE WELL INTO
THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE VALUES ARE 15-20F ABOVE AVERAGES
IN THE LOW 60S THIS TIME OF YEAR. SEVERAL MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
AFTERNOON DIURNAL SHOWERS ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE NORTH-CENTRAL. AM
STILL HAVING A HARD TIME BUYING INTO THIS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE BY THE MODELS AND DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS
MARGINAL. DAYTIME MIXING ALONG WITH QUICKLY DIMINISHING
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION THIS TIME OF YEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SFC
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS
THE KEWEENAW EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT. A DECENT AMOUNT OF LINEAR FORCING WILL BE
AVAILABLE THROUGH LOW-LEVEL FGEN...MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONV...AND THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET. THIS SUGGESTS CONTINUING WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. TIMING OF THE PRECIP REMAINS A
SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGE DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCE AND INCONSISTENCY. THE
12Z NAM SOLUTION HAS COME IN MUCH DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND
OTHER MODELS. THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH BY THE NAM DELAYS
PRECIP UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THAT SAID MONDAYS FORECAST
BECOMES QUITE TRICKY AS THE TEMP AND PRECIP FORECAST HINGES ON HOW
FAR SOUTH THE FRONT MAKES IT SUNDAY NIGHT. A FASTER SOLUTION /ECMWF/
WOULD RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER DAY WITH SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. A
SLOWER SOLUTION /NAM/ WOULD ALLOW DIABATIC HEATING ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL TO STALL THE FRONT EVEN MORE...BRINGING MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS AND SHOWERS TO JUST THE NORTHERN CWA. HAVE OPTED TO TREND
TOWARD THE SLOWER IDEA AS EVEN THE 12Z GFS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF
RAIN...BUT LOW ON THE TIMING.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN BUILDING
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC FRONT CONTINUES
SSE OUT OF THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER WELL INTO
TUESDAY WITH WEAK NE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AT
LEAST SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS/DRIZZLE CENTRAL AND EAST ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THEN...AN INVERSION AROUND 3KFT
COMBINED WITH THE WEAKENING IMPACT OF THE SUN FOR MIXING...MAY KEEP
THE AREA SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. HAVE
THUS CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING HIGH TEMPS FOR TUESDAY...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S CWA-WIDE. ALSO...WITH LOW-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND INITIATING
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...IT MAY EVEN BE DIFFICULT TO
COMPLETELY RID THE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT DIFFERS SOMEWHAT WITH THE
OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW. ATTM...A
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD OVER MANITOBA. WILL MAINTAIN CONSENSUS POPS...WITH AN
EMPHASIS FOR BETTER CHANCES ON THURSDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A JET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014
WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS AT ALL SITES. KCMX SHOULD SEE AN EASTERLY LAKE BREEZE AFFECT THE
SITE IN THE AFTERNOON. FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ALL THREE SITES AGAIN
TONIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF MVFR VSBY OR LOWER AT
KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014
A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE STRETCHING A RIDGE NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
(BELOW 20KTS) INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT
WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL THEN PLACE A RIDGE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LEADING TO DIMINISHING
WINDS.
WITH MORE MOIST AIR BEGINNING TO WORK NORTH OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
333 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS DATA SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS COMING ON
SHORE OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF THE CONUS. UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE...THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT AFFECTED
THE AREA 24 HOURS AGO IS SPINNING OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
AT THE SURFACE...A 1026MB HIGH IS STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND STRETCHES A 1023MB RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
BETWEEN 850-500MB AS SEEN ON THE 00Z KGRB/KAPX SOUNDINGS. THIS HAS
LED TO CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ON THE
NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUEPRIOR AND
NORTHWEST ONTARIO. THESE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING
UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN 925-850MB AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. BACK TO UPPER MICHIGAN...THE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS HAS LED TO PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.P. AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN HAVE BEEN
SEEN FOG AS LOW AS 1/4MI THUS FAR AND EXPECT THAT AREA OF LOWER
VISIBILITIES TO EXPAND THROUGH SUNRISE. WILL MONITOR FOG TRENDS
AND IF THE LOWER VISIBILITIES BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WILL ISSUE AN
SPS TO ADDRESS THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
EXPECT THE FOG TO BURN OFF BETWEEN 14-15Z BASED OFF TIMING FROM A
COUPLE DAYS AGO AND GOES-R CLOUD THICKNESS DATA NEARING 900FT OVER
THE EAST LEADING TO A DISSIPATION TIME OF 2-2.5HRS AFTER SUNRISE.
AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF...IT SHOULD BE A WONDERFULL EARLY FALL DAY
TO TAKE IN THE FALL COLORS. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH WITH THE NORTHWEST THIRD STILL NEAR SOME OF THE
DEPARTING 925-850MB MOISTURE WOULD EXPECT SOME DIURNAL CU TO
DEVELOP IN THAT AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND MIXING TO AROUND 875MB...EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE IN THE MID 70S
FOR HIGHS TODAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER
VALUES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER VALUES IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
WITH THE UPPER/SURFACE RIDGE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA FOR
THE NEXT 24HRS...EXPECT FOG TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE ACROSS THE AREA
AGAIN TONIGHT. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST AND
ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014
THE RELATIVELY WARM STREAK SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL COME TO AN
END EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S.
SATURDAY NIGHT...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE REGION AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STRETCHES
FROM NORTH DAKOTA TO HUDSON BAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER
IN PRECIP CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A CONTINUED INCREASE OF SFC
MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT...FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
INTERIOR CENTRAL AND EAST. HOWEVER...DAYTIME MIXING ON SATURDAY MAY
LOWER DEWPOINTS FARTHER THAN MODELS ARE INDICATING. THIS LIKELY WILL
NOT BE REALIZED UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG.
SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL INCH CLOSER TO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD HOLD OFF REACHING THE KEWEENAW UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING. SUNDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY IN THIS WARM STRETCH. WITH 850
HPA TEMPS STILL 12 TO 14C ACROSS THE CWA...HIGHS WILL BE WELL INTO
THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE VALUES ARE 15-20F ABOVE AVERAGES
IN THE LOW 60S THIS TIME OF YEAR. SEVERAL MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
AFTERNOON DIURNAL SHOWERS ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE NORTH-CENTRAL. AM
STILL HAVING A HARD TIME BUYING INTO THIS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE BY THE MODELS AND DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS
MARGINAL. DAYTIME MIXING ALONG WITH QUICKLY DIMINISHING
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION THIS TIME OF YEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SFC
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS
THE KEWEENAW EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT. A DECENT AMOUNT OF LINEAR FORCING WILL BE
AVAILABLE THROUGH LOW-LEVEL FGEN...MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONV...AND THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET. THIS SUGGESTS CONTINUING WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. TIMING OF THE PRECIP REMAINS A
SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGE DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCE AND INCONSISTENCY. THE
12Z NAM SOLUTION HAS COME IN MUCH DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND
OTHER MODELS. THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH BY THE NAM DELAYS
PRECIP UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THAT SAID MONDAYS FORECAST
BECOMES QUITE TRICKY AS THE TEMP AND PRECIP FORECAST HINGES ON HOW
FAR SOUTH THE FRONT MAKES IT SUNDAY NIGHT. A FASTER SOLUTION /ECMWF/
WOULD RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER DAY WITH SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. A
SLOWER SOLUTION /NAM/ WOULD ALLOW DIABATIC HEATING ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL TO STALL THE FRONT EVEN MORE...BRINGING MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS AND SHOWERS TO JUST THE NORTHERN CWA. HAVE OPTED TO TREND
TOWARD THE SLOWER IDEA AS EVEN THE 12Z GFS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF
RAIN...BUT LOW ON THE TIMING.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN BUILDING
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC FRONT CONTINUES
SSE OUT OF THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER WELL INTO
TUESDAY WITH WEAK NE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AT
LEAST SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS/DRIZZLE CENTRAL AND EAST ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THEN...AN INVERSION AROUND 3KFT
COMBINED WITH THE WEAKENING IMPACT OF THE SUN FOR MIXING...MAY KEEP
THE AREA SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. HAVE
THUS CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING HIGH TEMPS FOR TUESDAY...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S CWA-WIDE. ALSO...WITH LOW-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND INITIATING
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...IT MAY EVEN BE DIFFICULT TO
COMPLETELY RID THE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT DIFFERS SOMEWHAT WITH THE
OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW. ATTM...A
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD OVER MANITOBA. WILL MAINTAIN CONSENSUS POPS...WITH AN
EMPHASIS FOR BETTER CHANCES ON THURSDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A JET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014
WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS AT ALL SITES. KCMX SHOULD SEE AN EASTERLY LAKE BREEZE AFFECT THE
SITE IN THE AFTERNOON. FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ALL THREE SITES AGAIN
TONIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF MVFR VSBY OR LOWER AT
KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014
A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE STRETCHING A RIDGE NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
(BELOW 20KTS) INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT
WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL
THEN PLACE A RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...LEADING TO DIMINISHING WINDS.
FINALLY...WITH MORE MOIST AIR BEGINNING TO WORK NORTH OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
153 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS DATA SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS COMING ON
SHORE OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF THE CONUS. UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE...THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT AFFECTED
THE AREA 24 HOURS AGO IS SPINNING OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
AT THE SURFACE...A 1026MB HIGH IS STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND STRETCHES A 1023MB RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
BETWEEN 850-500MB AS SEEN ON THE 00Z KGRB/KAPX SOUNDINGS. THIS HAS
LED TO CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ON THE
NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUEPRIOR AND
NORTHWEST ONTARIO. THESE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING
UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN 925-850MB AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. BACK TO UPPER MICHIGAN...THE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS HAS LED TO PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.P. AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN HAVE BEEN
SEEN FOG AS LOW AS 1/4MI THUS FAR AND EXPECT THAT AREA OF LOWER
VISIBILITIES TO EXPAND THROUGH SUNRISE. WILL MONITOR FOG TRENDS
AND IF THE LOWER VISIBILITIES BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WILL ISSUE AN
SPS TO ADDRESS THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
EXPECT THE FOG TO BURN OFF BETWEEN 14-15Z BASED OFF TIMING FROM A
COUPLE DAYS AGO AND GOES-R CLOUD THICKNESS DATA NEARING 900FT OVER
THE EAST LEADING TO A DISSIPATION TIME OF 2-2.5HRS AFTER SUNRISE.
AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF...IT SHOULD BE A WONDERFULL EARLY FALL DAY
TO TAKE IN THE FALL COLORS. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH WITH THE NORTHWEST THIRD STILL NEAR SOME OF THE
DEPARTING 925-850MB MOISTURE WOULD EXPECT SOME DIURNAL CU TO
DEVELOP IN THAT AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND MIXING TO AROUND 875MB...EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE IN THE MID 70S
FOR HIGHS TODAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER
VALUES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER VALUES IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
WITH THE UPPER/SURFACE RIDGE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA FOR
THE NEXT 24HRS...EXPECT FOG TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE ACROSS THE AREA
AGAIN TONIGHT. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST AND
ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014
AFTER A WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEEK...CHANGES ARE IN THE OFFING FOR
NEXT WEEK. STRONG RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY (500MB
HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ARE NOTED ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO) AND THEN SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT WARM CONDITIONS FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. TROF
PROGRESSING ACROSS CANADA THIS WEEKEND WILL THEN SUPPRESS THE RIDGE
AND SEND A COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING SHARP
COOLING (ESPECIALLY NOTABLE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR)...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. THEREAFTER...A DEEPENING TROF INTO THE WRN
CONUS WILL FORCE A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS WILL
SUPPORT WARMING AGAIN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THRU THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD. AS THE TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD...THERE IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR A
WET PERIOD AT SOME POINT DURING THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A NUMBER
OF RECENT GFS RUNS AND SOME GEM ENSEMBLES HAVE POINTED TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT FALL STORM TO EMERGE FROM THE TROF...SO THE
END OF NEXT WEEK MAY BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD. COLDER WEATHER WILL
CERTAINLY FOLLOW HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF OCT.
BEGINNING SAT...AFOREMENTIONED TROF SHIFTING ACROSS CANADA WILL PUSH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO NRN ONTARIO. S/SW FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT
WILL MAINTAIN WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FCST AREA. FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A MOSTLY DRY COLUMN...SO SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY SUNNY AFTER
PATCHY SHALLOW FOG DISSIPATES. MIXING TO 850-825MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS
ALSO SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S TO EVEN THE LWR 80S AWAY
FROM LAKE MODERATION WHICH SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT
NIGHT. SHOULD SEE SOME FOG AGAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SCNTRL AND ERN
FCST AREA.
ON SUN...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK S AND E. MODELS INDICATE A
RIBBON OF LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SETTING UP UNDER RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET STREAK SUPPORTING THE TROF HEADING INTO ERN
CANADA. THIS WILL IN TURN LEAD TO BAND OF RAIN DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. SO...TIMING OF FRONT WILL BE CRITICAL TO PCPN FCST AND
OBVIOUSLY TEMPS AS WELL. THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST FRONT WILL REACH LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ACCELERATE S...AT LEAST PASSING THRU THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE AFTN. GEM AND ECMWF ARE
JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER. SO...THERE MAY BE SOME -RA BY EVENING OVER THE
KEWEENAW. OTHERWISE...NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN AHEAD OF FRONT DESPITE
SOME INSTABILITY. NAM LOOKS MUCH OVERDONE WITH MLCAPE UPWARDS OF
1700J/KG. TEMPS SUN SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SAT...EXCEPT A LITTLE
COOLER OVER THE KEWEENAW WITH ANTICIPATION OF WINDS VEERING MORE OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF FRONT ARRIVING THERE IN THE LATER AFTN. IF
FRONT IS A LITTLE FASTER...THERE WILL BE SHARP COOLING ACROSS THE N
IN THE AFTN.
SUN NIGHT/MON...A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA IS
FCST TO DIG INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...ENHANCING THE POST FRONTAL
PCPN AND HOLDING UP PROGRESSION OF COLD FRONT UNTIL THE WAVE PASSES.
INCLUDED CHC POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE N SUN NIGHT (LIKELY ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW OVERNIGHT) AS BEST FRONTOGENESIS FORCING IS STILL INDICATED
TO BE JUST N OF THE AREA. ON MON...BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY ACROSS
THE N AND E IN THE MORNING WHERE BEST FORCING IS EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE...MON WILL BE A SHARPLY COLDER DAY WITH RAIN AND BLUSTERY
N WINDS OFF CHILLY LAKE SUPERIOR. TEMPS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE IN THE
40S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE N. TEMPS COULD STILL
SURGE UP WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FAR SCNTRL IF THE COLD FRONT
DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL LATE MORNING OR AFTN.
PCPN WILL EXIT MON NIGHT...THOUGH SOME UPSLOPE -RA/-DZ MAY HOLD ON
ACROSS THE N GIVEN ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. POST FRONTAL LOW
CLOUDS MAY THEN PLAGUE THE AREA INTO AT LEAST PART OF TUE AS MODELS
INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING.
TROF DEVELOPING INTO THE WRN CONUS MID WEEK WILL SEND ONE PIECE OF
ENERGY N INTO THE NRN PLAINS TUE/EARLY WED BEFORE TROF BEGINS TO
SHIFT TOWARD THE CNTRL CONUS. LEAD WAVE MAY SPREAD SHRA INTO WRN
UPPER MI WED...BUT EXPECT BETTER POTENTIAL FOR PCPN TO ARRIVE THU AS
MAIN TROF MOVES OUT OVER THE PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014
WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS AT ALL SITES. KCMX SHOULD SEE AN EASTERLY LAKE BREEZE AFFECT THE
SITE IN THE AFTERNOON. FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ALL THREE SITES AGAIN
TONIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF MVFR VSBY OR LOWER AT
KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014
A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE STRETCHING A RIDGE NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
(BELOW 20KTS) INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT
WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL
THEN PLACE A RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...LEADING TO DIMINISHING WINDS.
FINALLY...WITH MORE MOIST AIR BEGINNING TO WORK NORTH OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
258 PM MDT FRI SEP 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...
COLD FRONT HAS OOZED THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BUT WITH STRONGER
COLD ADVECTION NOT OCCURRING UNTIL TONIGHT. TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO
THE 80S AND LOWER 90S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 2PM TEMP OF 93F AT
SHERIDAN TYING A RECORD FOR THE DAY. BILLINGS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED
TO THE NE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT AREA LONG WITH WEAK ENERGY FROM
THE SW ALLOWING FOR A CU FIELD TO FORM FROM BILLINGS WEST...WITH
LATEST RADAR SHOWING WEAK ECHOES IN PARK AND SWEET GRASS
COUNTIES. AREAS FROM BILLINGS WEST CAN EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS/
TSTMS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THIS REMAINS CONSISTENT
WITH RECENT HRRR RUNS...WITH THE EAST REMAINING DRY/CLEAR. MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND DEEP PACIFIC TROF WHICH
IS PUSHING SLOWLY INLAND AND WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR WEST LATER
TONIGHT.
OVERALL THEME OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED TODAY. PCPN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE WEST OF BILLINGS LATER TONIGHT...WITH RAIN LIKELY
WEST OF BILLINGS SATURDAY...THEN BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS THE CWA
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS TO OUR
SOUTH LEAVING OUR REGION IN A FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT REGION ALOFT.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT...WITH THE MAIN CHANGE BEING TO DRY OUT
BILLINGS ON SATURDAY. STRONGER FORCING SHOULD STAY TO OUR WEST...
WITH COOLER LOW LEVEL NE WINDS KEEPING OUR AIRMASS STABLE WITH
WITH A 5-6KFT CLOUD DECK. THIS MAY SUPPORT A FEW SPRINKLES BUT
SHOULD NOT BE ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO BE
OUTDOORS IN BILLINGS ON SATURDAY. OTHER CHANGE WAS TO RAISE POPS
NEAR SHERIDAN AND LAME DEER SUNDAY NIGHT AS ALL MODELS SHOW
STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF WYOMING. COULD ALSO BE
SOME TSTMS WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN OUR SOUTHEAST.
IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE GREAT. COULD SEE SOME WET
SNOW OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS INCLUDING BEARTOOTH PASS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO STAY UP NEAR 10KFT. OTHERWISE WE
ARE TALKING ABOUT A COUPLE DAYS OF MUCH COOLER AND OCCASIONALLY
WET WEATHER...WITH PCPN TOTALS NEAR AN INCH IN PLACES BY SUNDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN OUR WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS...ALONG WITH A
HEALTHY NE WIND. THOUGH IT WILL BE A COLD RAIN...DO NOT THINK
FOOTHILL LOCATIONS SUCH AS RED LODGE AND STORY WILL SEE SNOW THIS
TIME.
AFTER NEAR RECORD HEAT AGAIN TODAY WE WILL SEE TEMPS DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR SATURDAY AND CLOSER TO LATE SEPTEMBER NORMALS.
SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S ACROSS MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES TO START THE EXTENDED. MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT AND
CRITICAL DIFFERENCES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
SOUTH ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE TROUGH MONDAY. MODELS VERY MUCH IN
AGREEMENT SO ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS FEATURE WHICH HITS MAINLY
EASTERN ZONES. GFS THEN HAS UPPER CLOSED LOW THAT LIFTS THROUGH SE
MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHILE ECMWF KEEPS SYSTEM OPEN
AND TRACKS IT FURTHER SOUTH. THE GFS SOLUTION IS THUS MUCH MORE
BULLISH WITH SIGNIFICANT QPF OVER OUR EAST TUESDAY DUE TO TROWAL
TYPE DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE ECMWF SCENARIO KEEPS THE FORCING IN
THE DAKOTAS. GEM ALSO KEEPS WAVE OPEN SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. I HAVE
THEREFORE USED A BLEND WHILE LEANING TOWARD THE LESS AGGRESSIVE
ECMWF SOLUTION.
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS CYCLONIC THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH THE MODELS HAVING DIFFERENCES TRYING TO TIME SOME SHORT WAVES
WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW. SO SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. BT
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT DUE TO
LOWERED VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM KBIL
WEST AND SOUTH INTO THE BEARTOOTHS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND BRISK INTO SATURDAY. BT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 055/065 045/054 043/064 049/066 045/060 042/057 042/064
21/E 66/W 63/W 22/W 22/W 02/W 20/U
LVM 050/059 045/055 040/064 044/064 037/058 035/057 036/065
67/R 87/W 63/W 33/W 32/W 12/W 21/B
HDN 051/070 047/057 043/066 048/068 044/061 041/060 040/066
01/B 66/W 63/W 22/W 22/W 02/W 20/U
MLS 055/073 047/057 043/064 050/066 046/062 041/059 041/065
00/B 35/W 55/T 33/W 22/W 12/W 21/B
4BQ 055/076 049/060 044/065 051/064 044/059 039/058 039/063
00/U 24/T 64/T 33/T 22/W 12/W 21/U
BHK 055/077 048/058 041/061 050/064 044/060 039/057 037/060
00/U 24/W 55/T 74/T 22/W 12/W 21/B
SHR 052/073 048/057 042/066 046/065 042/056 037/057 036/064
00/B 35/T 73/W 23/W 22/W 02/W 20/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1236 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014
JUST COMPLETED THE FIRST MINOR UPDATE OF THE DAY. AS
EXPECTED...THERE WAS SOME PATCHY FOG MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 EARLY
THIS MORNING BUT IT WAS NOT NEARLY AS DENSE/IMPACTFUL AS THURS AM.
PRECIP-WISE...STILL EXPECTING A DRY DAY CWA-WIDE BUT AM KEEPING A
WARY EYE ON A SMATTERING OF MID-LEVEL CUMULUS THAT ARE SKIRTING
ACROSS THE YORK/POLK COUNTY AREA AT THIS TIME...AS THE MEANDERING
MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST TO THE EAST OVER IA/MO SEEMS TO BE
JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO KICK UP THESE CLOUDS...AND EVEN SOME ONGOING
ISOLATED SHOWERS CLOSER TO ITS CORE. TEMP-WISE...BASED ON WHAT
HAPPENED YESTERDAY WHEN HIGHS ROSE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
EXPECTED...ALREADY DECIDED TO BUMP UP TODAYS HIGHS GENERALLY 1-2
DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN SEVERAL AREAS. THIS COULD BRING
A BIT GREATER COVERAGE OF MID-80S VERSUS LOWER-80S...BUT THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
82-86.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014
DRY/QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.
ALOFT...THE PATTERN FEATURED UPPER RIDGING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THRU THE DAKOTAS/UPPER MIDWEST REGION...AND TO THE SOUTHEAST AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED IN NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IA. FARTHER
UPSTREAM...AN UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING INLAND TO THE WEST COAST. AT
THE SURFACE...SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW WAS IN PLACE IN BETWEEN A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION AND A RIDGE WELL EAST
OF THE MO/MS RIVERS.
HAVE BEEN MONITORING OBSERVATIONAL DATA THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS FOR
SIGNS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AS TEMP/DP SPREADS CLOSE IN...AND SO FAR
THE LOWEST VSBY RESTRICTION HAVE BEEN AROUND 7SM. SHORT TERM
FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST OUR NORTHERN ZONES INTO NE NEB STAND THE
BETTER CHC FOR THE LOWER VSBYS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY
FOG POTENTIAL HERE.
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
KS IS PROGGED TO RETROGRADE/MEANDER TO THE NW INTO NORTHERN
IA/EASTERN NEB WHILE TO THE WEST...THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH DEEPENS
WITH THE LOW CLOSING OFF IN CA. THE WEATHER REGIME WILL BECOME
BLOCKED DUE TO THE WESTERN TROUGH AND AN EAST COAST RIDGE...WITH
THE INTERIOR CONUS IN BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS. EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO
PREVAIL FOR OUR AREA...DESPITE THE RAP WHICH TRIES TO GENERATE
MINOR QPF/PCPN JUST TO OUR EAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MEANDERING
UPPER LOW. HAVE INCREASED SKY GRIDS/CLOUDS TO SOME DEGREE
TODAY/TONIGHT WITH THE WESTWARD MOVING SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING THIS AFTN JUST ABOVE H85 WITH
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER AROUND 20KTS. THE SFC GRADIENT ALSO
TIGHTENS AND EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY/GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS AFTN. HARD TO ARGUE WITH CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS FOR
BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT AND LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE. AFTN HIGHS IN
THE LOW/MID 80S LOOK ON TARGET IN THE MILD FALL AIRMASS...WITH
LOWS STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE AN UPPER
RIDGE THAT WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM
SIDE.
DURING THIS TIME AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. THE FIRST UPPER WAVE FROM THIS LOT WILL START TO AFFECT THE
AREA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY AND AS A SURFACE LOW AND
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY BEFORE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A GRADUAL COOL DOWN WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE-AVERAGE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY PREVAILING
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH IN FACT FEW IF ANY CLOUDS AND
ESSENTIALLY NIL RISK OF PRECIPITATION. SOUTHERLY SURFACE BREEZES
WILL AVERAGE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH GUST
POTENTIAL UP INTO THE 18-20KT RANGE BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
LATE SATURDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...LIGHTER SUSTAINED BREEZES ONLY
AROUND 10KT WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. ONE POSSIBLE ISSUE
THAT WILL NEED MONITORED IN LATER FORECASTS IS THE STRENGTH OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) LATE TONIGHT...AS SOUTH WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO GENERALLY THE 35-38KT RANGE WITHIN THE
LOWEST SEVERAL HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...BECAUSE
THE DIFFERENCE IN OVERALL BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDE BETWEEN THE SURFACE
AND ROUGHLY 1000 FEET AGL IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO ONLY AVERAGE
25-30KT AS OPPOSED TO 30+KT...HAVE DEEMED THIS JUST BELOW THE
MAGNITUDE WORTHY OF A FORMAL LLWS MENTION IN THE TAFS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
230 PM PDT FRI SEP 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
HAS MOVED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. A SPLIT FLOW IS
DEVELOPING IN THE TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW FORMING IN THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ANOTHER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. THIS IS LEADING TO A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA.
THE WESTERLY FLOW BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST
TODAY AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING THOUGH THE INTENSITY IS
LESSENING. ELSEWHERE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP AND HAVE CUT
BACK ON THE POPS FOR TONIGHT, LIMITING IT TO A SLIGHT CHANCE AND
REMOVING THEM FROM A FEW PLACES, MAINLY THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS.
THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND PROGRESSING TO THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF OUR AREA SO
HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST OREGON WHILE THE
REST OF THE AREA DRIES OUT. ON SATURDAY THE SOUTHERN LOW WILL COME
ASHORE AND WILL BE CENTERED NEAR RENO IN THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL THEN
MOVE INTO CENTRAL NEVADA ON SUNDAY AND INTO UTAH AND WEAKEN BY
MONDAY. CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING A NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WRAP AROUND FLOW INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THE
FLOW WILL HAVE TURNED BACK TO WESTERLY AND ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST WHILE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHILE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH MID 30S
TO MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED
TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE A RETURN TO DRIER
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE IS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY THAT COULD INCREASE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION ALONG WITH A FEW
SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES. BY FRIDAY A
STRONGER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER LCL MVFR CEILINGS...THAT MAY DIP TO 5000 FEET COULD OCCUR IN
AND NEAR SHOWERS UNTIL 18Z SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 50 73 52 72 / 10 10 10 10
ALW 54 74 55 74 / 10 10 10 10
PSC 52 77 53 76 / 10 0 10 10
YKM 48 73 51 75 / 10 10 0 0
HRI 50 75 50 75 / 10 10 10 10
ELN 48 74 49 76 / 10 10 0 0
RDM 39 66 39 67 / 20 10 10 10
LGD 47 66 45 68 / 20 10 20 20
GCD 43 64 44 68 / 20 10 20 20
DLS 54 76 53 78 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
83/97/97
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1221 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
An area of light to moderate rain showers continues to move
northwest across I-10 into the Permian Basin. Farther north, a few
cells have developed in the vicinity of KABI. Additional
convective development is anticipated this afternoon, especially
south of KABI. Showers were added (as a VCSH) at the forecast
terminals (excluding KABI) this afternoon with a tempo for thunder
at KJCT and KSOA. Prevailing VFR conditions are expected, but we
may see tempo MVFR conditions in an around convection. Showers
will likely linger into the overnight hours, but coverage is
expected to decrease. Patchy MVFR ceilings will be possible late
tonight along the I-10 corridor.
Johnson
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2014/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR conditions prevailing across most of West Central Texas early
this morning, but with a fairly widespread mixture of mid and
high clouds across the area. A few lower clouds have developed
underneath, patchy MVFR ceilings around 2k feet, but they are
having trouble becoming more widespread with all of the higher
clouds overhead. Ceilings should lower through the day across the
area, likely remaining in the low end VFR range, as showers and
thunderstorms become more widespread. Hard to pinpoint just when
and where they will develop, but models suggest they will be
fairly widespread near the southern terminals of KSOA, KJCT, and
KBBD (Sonora, Junction, and Brady) for a good portion of the
afternoon and evening hours.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Potent little upper level low is evident on water vapor imagery
across the Big Bend region early this morning. System will not be
moving fast, and will tend to wobble as shortwaves rotate around
it, but the general trend for the system to move slowly east.
The GFS for several days, and now the TTU WRF and the HRRR as
well, show the system finally tapping better low level moisture
out of the Gulf of Mexico to produce an expanding area of showers
and storms this afternoon and evening. Best chances look to be on
the east and northeast side of the low, so across the Trans Pecos
and Del Rio areas north into the Northern Edwards Plateau and
Northwest Hill Country. Have increased PoPs as far north as San
Angelo and Brownwood, but appears the best chances will be the
I-10 corridor from Ozona to Sonora to Junction.
Whatever does develop will likely linger into the evening hours.
And given the moisture and lift in place as the low itself treks
across the area, would not be surprised to see a few showers or
storms linger well into or even through the overnight hours.
LONG TERM...
/Saturday through Monday/
The upper level low(currently over the Big Bend) will open up into
a trough and move over east Texas by Saturday evening. However a
few showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday due to the
slow movement of this system and some weak instability over the
southern half of the area. Looks like a dry forecast for the end
of the weekend into the first part of next week. A weak upper
level ridge will be over the Southern Plains. Temperatures will be
close to seasonable values. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s
with lows in the 60s.
/Tuesday through next Friday/
A dry forecast is in store for the middle part of next week and
then a slight chance of rain next Thursday. A strong upper level
trough will settle into the western US early next week. The first
piece of energy(negative tilt shortwave) will lift out into the
central and northern Plains. This upper level system will miss
West Central Texas, however low level southerly flow will increase
across the area by mid week. The mean upper level trough axis will
remain across the western US and another piece of energy will drop
into the trough. this second shot of ascent will move out into the
Plains late next week. Also, a cold front will move east with the
upper level dynamics. There ECMWF is more amplified and further
south with the second system(affecting West Central Texas) then
the GFS model. For now, will go with a slight chance of
thunderstorms mainly Thursday across much of the area due to at
least weak convergence along the front and some instability.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 83 63 83 63 86 / 20 20 10 5 5
San Angelo 81 62 83 62 84 / 40 30 20 10 5
Junction 80 61 82 62 86 / 40 50 20 10 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
328 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014
.TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. BROAD 500 MILLIBAR CIRCULATION
ACRS NRN MO/SRN IA PROGGD TO RETROGRADE A BIT TO THE NORTHWEST. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE FOG DEVELOPMENT. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM LAST NIGHT
OTHER THAN SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS. ALSO NOTICING AN INCREASE IN
SE WINDS WITHIN A FEW OF THE LOWER GATES ON RAP SOUNDINGS. FOG WILL
BE QUITE SHALLOW AS COLUMN IS MOISTURE STARVED. NAM MOS A LITTLE
MORE ROBUST THAN THE GFS MOS BUT THIS IS TYPICAL. SREF PROBS NOT TOO
EXCITED BUT OVERALL PERSISTENCE SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN THE OVERALL
STAGNANT PATTERN. WILL NOT HOIST AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AS
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD DENSE NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME...BUT POTENTIAL
THERE FOR AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG.
.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
UPPER LOW PROGGD TO BE AROUND NW IA/SW MN. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
DOMINATES WITH THE DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS PERSISTING. MORNING FOG
TRENDS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS WITH ANY LINGERING FOG LIKELY TO BURN
OFF IN MUCH THE SAME FASHION AS FRIDAY MORNING. 925 TEMPS AROUND 17-
18C...SO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S.
.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
MORE FOG POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAIN
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SFC DEWPTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE EACH
DAY DUE TO THE STAGNATING AIR MASS. HENCE THE LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO FALL BELOW THE
DAYTIME CROSS OVER TEMP ONCE AGAIN.
OTHERWISE...THE QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. MOST OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWING AN AMPLIFYING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH FURTHER STRENGTHENING ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED
ACROSS NORTHERN GTLAKES SUN NGT AND MON. THIS HIGHER AMPLITUDE WAVE
AND LOW PRESSURE RESULTS IN QUICKER SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN GTLAKES ON MONDAY. ELEVATED MOISTURE
STILL LIMITED AS FRONT CROSSES REGION SO FOR NOW...WL CONTINUE SCHC
WORDING IN THE NORTHEAST CWA...CLOSER TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION.
LATER PERIODS OF NAM REMAIN OUTLIER WITH ITS SLOWER SWD MOVEMENT.
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WL NEED TO BUMP UP WINDS AND SPEED UP MORE
ABRUPT WIND CHANGE LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.
.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM TRENDING
TOWARD LOW.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN GTLAKES CONTINUING TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS EWD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. STRONGER SHORT
WAVE WILL PULL BACKDOOR CDFNT SWD ACROSS SRN WI ABOUT 12 HOURS
EARLIER THAN THOUGHT 24 HOURS AGO. HENCE CDFNT NOW EXPECTED TO
ADVANCE SOUTH OF SRN WI/LAKE MI BY 00Z/TUE. WL KEEP A CHANCE FOR -
SHRA IN THE EVE IN PARTS OF EAST BUT DRIER...COOLER AIR WILL END
THREAT OVERNIGHT. LIKELY SOME LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS WL ACCOMPANY PUSH
OF COLDER AIR POST FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SHOULD RESULT IN QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING AT LEAST TEMPORARILY TUE/TUE NGT.
MEANWHILE...BROADENING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER WRN CONUS WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING SLY WINDS OVER THE WRN GTLAKES AROUND MID WEEK AS
SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. AS A RESULT...COLUMN PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASES TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY 00Z/THU. INITIAL SURGE OF
MOISTURE MAY SET OFF PRECIPITATION ON WED...WITH BETTER CHANCE IN
THU/THU NGT TIME FRAME WHEN STRONG CDFNT AND SHARP MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE PASS ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE RAPIDLY
DIVERGED AFTER THAT AS GFS CONTINUED TO CARVE OUT COLD LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE REGION...WHILE ECMWF RETURNS TO WARMER...MORE ZONAL
FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER 12Z ECMWF/GFS FLIP FLOPPED SOMEWHAT
WITH ECMWF NOW SHOWING COLD AIR SURGING INTO SRN WI FOR THE
WEEKEND...WHILE GFS TRENDS TOWARD MORE ZONAL FLOW. HENCE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN LATE PERIODS
DISAGREEMENT BEGINS UPSTREAM OVER WRN CONUS AND NORTHERN PACIFIC WRT
AMOUNT OF AMPLIFICATION OF NORTHERN PACIFIC TROF AND RIDGING OVER
WRN CONUS. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING LARGE VARIABILITY IN UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD...SO WOULD OPT FOR AN AVERAGE OF
ALL GUIDANCE FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...MOSTLY VFR PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH HAVING
STRONG INFLUENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS. WATER VAPOR/RAP SHOWS
RATHER BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER VCNTY NW MO/SE IA. WILL WATCH FOR
MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WITH SOME IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE. ANY FOG
WILL DISSIPATE SATURDAY MORNING AS HEATING KICKS IN.
&&
.MARINE...FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER EASTERN WI THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SOME OF THIS FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS AS WELL.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/SATURDAY/AVIATION/MARINE...PC
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MBK