Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 09/25/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
853 PM MST WED SEP 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER TO START THE NEW WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 25/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH CUTS THROUGH
THE CENTER OF THE NATION...WITH THE TAIL END OF THIS SYSTEM
TRIGGERING CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW
MEXICO...WITH AN EASTERLY WIND ACROSS MUCH OF MY FORECAST AREA. THE
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING SHOWED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING GENERALLY WEST OR WEST SOUTHWEST
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...WITH ONE OF THESE STORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN JUST TO THE EAST OF MY FORECAST AREA IN GRANT COUNTY NEW
MEXICO WHERE RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES INDICATING AMOUNTS POTENTIALLY
AS HIGH AS 3 TO 4 INCHES IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AT ANY RATE...
THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN STEADILY DECREASING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAVING ALREADY DIED OFF.
MEANWHILE...AS REFERENCED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT HAS BEEN CHARGING ITS WAY NORTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAS TRIGGERED SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOWS THAT
SPAWNED SMALLER COMPLEXES...BUT WITH THESE OCCURRING CLOSER TO OUR
SOUTHERN BORDER. THAT SAID...WILL BE CURIOUS TO SEE WHAT THESE
OUTFLOWS DO WITH REGARD TO SPILLING ASSOCIATED MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MY FORECAST AREA EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR
INTO THURSDAY. THE DAY SHIFT ANTICIPATED THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO
OCCUR AND THUS RAISED THE POP FORECAST FOR AREAS GENERALLY FROM
NOGALES WESTWARD TOWARD ORGAN PIPE CACTUS NATIONAL MONUMENT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POPS FOR THAT AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...BUT SOMETHING THE NIGHT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON. AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...I THINK THE SLIGHT CHANCES
THROUGH THIS EVENING NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER CONTINUE TO SEEM
REASONABLE...WITH VIRTUALLY NO THREAT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AS OF 03Z (8 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 90S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT
REPORTING A TEMP OF 91 DEGS...AFTER ACHIEVING AN AFTERNOON HIGH OF
99 DEGS...WHICH WAS 7 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. THE CURRENT
TEMP READINGS GENERALLY SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE
INHERITED/EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED
AT THIS TIME.
FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/12Z.
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE IS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED MID LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN AND
AROUND TERRAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN THE RULE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ON THE INCREASE. STORMS WILL FAVOR HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY IN AND
AROUND ANY THAT DEVELOP. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
15 MPH THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH ARE
FORECASTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO OUR NORTH.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KEEPING AN EYE ON THE INFLUENCES FROM THAT
IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT STARTED WAY DOWN BY PUERTO
VALLARTA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. IT HELD TOGETHER WELL OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING AS IT PUSHED PAST MAZATLAN BEFORE DYING OFF NEAR
LOS MOCHIS. HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW HAS HELPED CONTINUE THE
IMPULSE INTO SOUTHERN SONORA WITH A CHILD COMPLEX FIRING JUST SOUTH
OF GUAYMAS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG
OUTFLOW AND MCV ACTIVITY WITH AN EYE TOWARD LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON
SOUTHWEST AND WEST OF TUCSON. THE INFLUENCES FROM THIS FEATURE HAVE
BEEN PUSHING UP THE GULF AT ABOUT 30KTS AND WHILE IT WILL HAVE
ADDITIONAL DIFFICULTY UNDER THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE DECAYING RIDGE
OVER US...IT SHOULD NOT BE DISCOUNTED AND THE ECWMF HINTS AT IT`S
INFLUENCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE THE OVERALL INCREASING MOISTURE TREND WILL CONTINUE TO SET
UP WITH NICE SURFACE STREAMLINE TRENDS FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
INTO WESTERN TO CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY NOTED ON LATEST HRRR OUTPUT.
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE STRONG
LOW NEAR THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA SEES SEVERAL PIECES OF
REINFORCING ENERGY DIG A STRONG EARLY SEASON TROUGH DOWN THE WEST
COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE STRONG TROUGH WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE GREAT BASIN INTO A MID TO
LATE FALL POSITION BEFORE FILLING A BIT AS IT LIFTS THROUGH NORTH OF
US. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL LOSE SOME
INFLECTION AS IT LIFTS ON THE NORTHWEST FLANK OF THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE. A FRAGMENTING SURFACE FRONT WILL EVIDENCE THE INFLUENCES OF
THE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. BEST MOISTURE DYNAMICS COUPLET STILL FOCUSING ON CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ARIZONA...BUT WE SHOULD GET SOME STRONG STORMS AROUND HERE
SATURDAY. STILL WELL ON THE WARM SECTOR SIDE SATURDAY BUT COOLING
SUNDAY WITH COOLEST AIR MASS IN PLACE MONDAY AS DAYTIME HIGHS FALL
FROM THE UPPER 90S LATE THIS WEEK TO THE MID 80S AT TIA BY MONDAY.
MUCH DRIER BEHIND THE TROUGH AND CONSIDERING THE PATTERN CHANGE TO
MUCH LOWER LATITUDE JET NEXT WEEK...NO ADDITIONAL PROSPECTS TO KEEP
THE MONSOON GOING. AFTER THIS WEEKEND WE`RE PROBABLY DONE.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/CANTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
316 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT-WED...SCATTERED SLOW MOVING STORMS ASSISTED BY LARGE SCALE
FORCING FROM ALOFT WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE REGION THROUGH
NIGHTFALL. HRRR GUID SUGGEST HIGHER EVENING COVERAGE OF RAINFALL
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPE WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE
ALONG WITH A RELATIVELY UNCONTAMINATED AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
WL KEEP A MENTION OF SCT COVERAGE AREAWIDE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF A QUARTER AN
INCH...WITH LIKELY AMOUNTS UP TO HALF AN INCH OVER THE TREASURE
COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. HAVE ALSO ADDED
PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS GIVEN THE RAIN WETTED GROUND
AND LIGHT WINDS.
WED...MAP FEATURE EVOLUTION POINTS TOWARD THE PERSISTENT
TROUGHING WHICH HAD BEEN NEAR THE AREA MUCH OF THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS LIFTING NORTHEAST...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA. A RESULTING LOW LEVEL WIND BECOMING
EAST EARLY SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS
DURING THE DAY AND WL KEEP LIKELY WORDING TO POP POTENTIAL. UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S.
THU-MON...(MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISC) CENTRAL FLORIDA ADVERTISED IN AN
ONSHORE WIND PATTEN. THE EASTERLY WINDS PUSH A MOIST AND RELATIVELY
STABLE MARINE AIRMASS INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. RAIN CHCS HOWEVER
WL LOWER TO THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF EVENING
STORMS AND SHOWERS ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT. COASTAL TIME HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS SUGGESTING A SLIGHT (20 POP) CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT
COASTAL CONVERGENCE SHOWERS AND REACHING INLAND WEST OF INTERSTATE
95 FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
&&
.AVIATION...
TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS IN SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY THROUGH
SUNSET WITH CONVECTION DIMINISHING THROUGH LATE EVENING. OVERNIGHT
MAY SEE LIGHT -SHRA MAINLY FROM MCO NORTHWARD NEAR STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND WITH ANY ONSHORE MOVING CONVECTION ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST. SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE ALL SITES EARLY WED MAINLY DUE OT
RAIN WETTED GROUNDS AND NEAR CALM WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH EMBEDDED
LIGHTNING WILL CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER SEA STATES INTO THE LATE
EVENING. SEAS OTHERWISE WILL AVERAGE AROUND 2 FT WITH VARIABLE
WINDS INTO EARLY WED.
WED-SAT...EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS THE FORECAST PERIOD. EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. SEAS
AROUND 2 FEET NEARSHORE AND 2 TO 4 FEET OFFSHORE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SHINGLE CREEK (SHIF1) CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE SINCE EARLY MON AND
HAS NOW FALLEN TO 57.15 FEET WHICH IS NEARLY A FOOT BELOW ACTION
STAGE. ASTOR ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER (ASTF1) AT 2.30 FOOT
CONTINUES TO STEADILY FALL IS ALSO BELOW (ACTION STAGE IS 2.5
FEET).
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 71 87 74 88 / 40 70 40 50
MCO 71 90 73 90 / 30 70 40 50
MLB 73 87 76 88 / 50 70 40 60
VRB 72 88 75 89 / 50 70 40 60
LEE 71 89 73 90 / 40 60 30 50
SFB 72 89 74 90 / 30 70 40 50
ORL 73 89 75 90 / 30 70 40 50
FPR 73 88 75 88 / 50 70 40 60
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE/AVIATION...JP
RADAR/DSS...DKW/MRV
HYDROLOGY...PG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
305 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
As mentioned in the aviation discussion below, a large area of low
clouds (which was very well progged by the HRRR Hi-Res guidance) is
currently developing and moving SW across the CWA. These low
ceilings are expected to prove quite difficult to lift and break out
later this morning and early afternoon, especially further off to
the north and east. Eventually, skies should become partly sunny
across the entire region for the mid to late afternoon hours, but
the combination of these clouds, the cooler air behind the cold
frontal passage, and the fairly gusty NE winds will all serve to
create a truly fall like day over the area. High temps will be
several degrees below normal for a change, with afternoon maximums
only 80 to 85 degrees today. Also, with the cold frontal boundary
now stalled to our south and east, the best chances for showers and
isolated thunderstorms will be over the coastal waters and the SE FL
Big Bend. PoPs over the interior will be 10% or less for almost 3/4
of the region today, but over the eastern 1/4 they will range from
20% to the east of Tallahassee and extending NE into south central
GA, with the 30-40% PoPs generally confined to the SE Big Bend. Even
here, rainfall amounts should be on the light side.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
A weak cut off low aloft with a decaying vorticity anomaly will keep
the cold front stationary across our forecast area tonight. The
highest chances for thunderstorms tonight will be over the water,
with slight chances (20-30%) for thunderstorms Wednesday through
Thursday over the Gulf waters and in the eastern Florida Big Bend.
Lows tonight and Wednesday night will be cool behind the front, from
around 60 in our northernmost counties to mid to upper 60s along the
immediate coastline. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s.
.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
The beginning of the extended period will feature a relatively
weak flow pattern aloft across the deep south, with the area
situated between ridges over the Rockies and western Atlantic.
At the surface, northeasterly flow will continue with high
pressure parked over New England and a trough of low pressure
along the eastern seaboard. The northeasterly flow should keep
most of the deeper moisture and showers confined to northeast
Florida. However, isolated activity may reach the far eastern Big
Bend from time to time.
Deeper moisture is forecast to return over the weekend as a trough
deepens over the central states. This should lead to increased
rain chances across the forecast area for Saturday into Monday.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Wednesday] With a large area of wrap around low
cloudiness developing to our NE and moving to the SW, went a bit
more pessimistic on the Tafs for the overnight hours this package.
Expect conditions to deteriorate from NE to SW, with prevailing MVFR
Cigs expected at all of the terminals along with a period of IFR
level Cigs at ABY and VLD. Furthermore, these low ceilings will be
tough to lift and break out this morning, with the MVFR conditions
possibly lingering into the early afternoon hours at ABY and VLD.
However, the best chances for rain will be across far eastern
portions of the CWA today, but with PoPs only 20% at VLD and lower
elsewhere, no mention of them in the Tafs is needed at this time.
Finally, gusty NE winds can be expected at all of the terminals from
the late morning hours to around sunset this evening.
&&
.Marine...
East-northeast winds will rise to advisory levels tonight over much
of our coastal waters and will likely remain elevated until
Thursday. After Thursday, cautionary winds will likely remain in
place over the coastal waters into the early weekend. Seas will peak
Wednesday around 5 to 6 feet over the offshore waters.
&&
.Fire Weather...
Moisture levels will remain fairly high over the next several days
which will keep afternoon relative humidities well away from any
fire weather concerns.
&&
.Hydrology...
Rainfall totals through the week are expected to be around 0.75-1"
in the eastern Big Bend, 0.75" or less over the rest of the area.
These totals will not cause our rivers to rise into flood stage.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 84 66 84 66 85 / 10 10 10 10 20
Panama City 84 68 85 69 84 / 10 10 10 10 10
Dothan 81 60 83 63 83 / 10 10 10 10 10
Albany 81 61 83 63 84 / 10 10 10 10 10
Valdosta 83 63 83 64 84 / 30 10 10 10 20
Cross City 83 67 86 67 86 / 40 20 30 20 40
Apalachicola 84 69 84 70 84 / 10 10 10 20 20
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT
Wednesday for Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to
Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from
Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee
River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...MOORE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1054 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
.UPDATE...
WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THE AREA AND OVERRUNNING ON
THE ISENTROPIC LEVELS SEEING SOME MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVEL BL.
AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST. WENT AND RAISED THE LOWS ANYWHERE
FROM A DEGREE TO 4 DEGREES IN THIS AREA. ALSO HAD TO CHANGE THE
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES. AT THIS TIME THE 00Z RUC SEEMED TO HAVE THE
BEST HANDLE ON THE DEWPOINTS AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. USED
THAT MODEL AND INHOUSE WRF ALONG WITH TRENDS TO DECIDE AN INCREASE
IN THE TEMPS WAS WARRANTED. NO OTHER CHANGES OR UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
ARG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS OF SHOWER CHANCES AND TEMPS ARE
RELATIVELY LOW IMPACT...SUBTLE DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AND LACK
OF STRONG FORCING MAKES FOR A TRICKY OUTCOME. UPPER LOW AND BETTER
MOISTURE FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO DAMPEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST THOUGH
WAVES OF EASTWARD LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL KEEP
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA CLOUDY WITH LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MAIN FORCING FOR ANY PRECIP WILL BE WITH
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AGAINST A STRONG CLASSICAL CAD WEDGE FROM A
1038MB PARENT HIGH SET TO PUSH EAST AND WEAKEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT POPS IN PORTIONS OF THE EAST FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TRENDING BASED ON UPGLIDE ALONG THE NAM
300K THETA LEVEL AS HI-RES SOLUTIONS DO NOT HELP IN CONFIDENCE.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF TIMING AND EXTENT OF ANY SHOWERS CHANGES.
AT LEAST NO THUNDER CONCERNS GIVEN STABLE WEDGE ENVIRONMENT.
FOR TEMPS...WEDGE AND CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
BLEND OF GUIDANCE PICKS UP ON SOME OF THIS...BUT THURSDAY HIGHS MAY
BE STILL TOO HIGH BASED ON HOW PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST WAS
STRUGGLING TO GET EVEN OUT OF THE 60S TODAY.
BAKER
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS ARE ARE
VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS BEING ADVERTISED YESTERDAY AND THUS
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A DECENT RAIN EVENT VERY LATE INTO THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT...BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THE SE GEORGIA AND NE FLORIDA COASTAL
CONVERGENCE ACTIVITY WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE LOCAL AREA IN LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW REGIME. MOST OF THE TIME IN SUCH
PATTERNS...THE SHOWERS REMAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN MODELS
SUGGEST AND FOR THIS FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND LIMIT AREAL
COVERAGE TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT IN GENERAL.
NORMALLY WOULD NOT HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN SUCH A COMPLICATED
SETUP WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW TRAPPED WITHIN LARGE SCALE UPPER
RIDGE. BUT IN THIS CASE...THINKING THE ONLY VARIABLE WHICH COULD
RADICALLY CHANGE THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW
EJECTING OUT. WHETHER THIS IS SUNDAY OR MONDAY OR LATER...IT
APPEARS LIKELY IT WILL HAPPEN EVENTUALLY AND WHEN IT DOES WE CAN
EXPECT A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN TO DEVELOP ALONG
WITH A GOOD FETCH OFF HE GULF PRODUCING PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST LIKELY COVERAGE
WITH MOST MODELS INDICATING CATEGORICAL POPS WITH SUSTAINED
MODERATE RAINFALL OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD. WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH 60
POPS FOR A WIDE EXPANSE AND FAVOR SLIGHTLY THE GFS QUICKER
PROGRESSION AS LATEST ECMWF HAS ACTUALLY TRENDED TOWARD THIS
SOLUTION.
DEESE/01
AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD ARE THE CHANCES FOR MVFR AND EVEN SOME
IFR CEILINGS. CLOUDS FROM THE EAST ARE GRADUALLY LOWERING AND ARE
FORECAST TO STAY MVFR TOMORROW EVERYWHERE BUT AHN WHERE IFR IS
POSSIBLE. CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT TOMORROW...HOWEVER THEY MAY
HOLD ON WITH OVERRUNNING FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE EAST AND THE CHANCES FOR POPS ARE VERY LOW.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...HIGH ON ALL OTHER.
ARG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 58 77 62 78 / 10 20 20 20
ATLANTA 61 78 65 79 / 10 10 20 20
BLAIRSVILLE 54 77 58 77 / 10 10 20 20
CARTERSVILLE 55 81 60 81 / 5 10 10 10
COLUMBUS 62 80 65 82 / 5 10 10 10
GAINESVILLE 59 76 63 77 / 10 10 20 20
MACON 61 78 64 82 / 10 10 10 20
ROME 55 81 58 82 / 5 10 10 10
PEACHTREE CITY 59 78 60 80 / 10 10 10 10
VIDALIA 62 78 67 83 / 10 20 20 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ARG
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...ARG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
311 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
...MINOR AFD CORRECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
THE FORECAST CONUNDRUM FOR THIS EVENING IS WHAT TO DO WITH
SPATIOTEMPORAL ARRANGEMENTS OF POPS. LARGELY BIASED POP ARRANGEMENT
TO THE MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND 4 KM NAM. THE GFS HAS
CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH THAN THESE MODELS AS AN OUTLIER. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A TROUGH AXIS THAT IS
DRAPED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. FARTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST, DRIER AIR HAS WORKED ITS WAY IN WITH CLEAR SKIES, SO AM
MORE DUBIOUS TO CONVECTION FORMING. THE CAVEAT TO THIS IS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO WHERE CUMULUS IS STARTING TO BUBBLE. THIS ACTIVITY
MIGHT NOT REACH OUR AREA AND THE PROBLEM WITH THAT IS THAT THE LOW
LEVEL JET FOR TONIGHT IS DISPLACED/FORECAST TO THE SOUTHEAST, SO NOT
SURE OUR NORTHWEST ZONES ARE IN THE AREA FOR SUSTAINED LATE NIGHT
CONVECTION VIA THE LOW LEVEL JET LIKE COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
ANYWAY, HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS FROM LIBERAL TO DODGE CITY TO LARNED
AND POINTS SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BE IN THE BETTER AREA OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT 500-
1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE ALONG WITH ABOUT 30 KT OF BULK SHEAR. THE LARGE
HAIL PARAMETER VIA THE 12Z NAM SOLUTION COMES UP WITH A VALUE OF 4
TO 5, SUGGESTING THAT 1.5" WOULD BE THE MAX FOR UPPER HAIL SIZE
FORECAST DISTRIBUTION. PROBABLY WILL BE SMALLER AS CONVECTION
BECOMES QUASI-LINEAR (AT LEAST SHOWN IN THE MODELS) AND YOU GET
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND HIGHER BENEFICIAL COMPETITION
FOR HAIL EMBRYOS. SPEAKING OF WHICH, WITH A PWAT OF SLIGHTLY UNDER
+2SD, WOULD NOT RULE OUT ANOTHER 1-3" PRECIPITATION HIT FOR
LOCATIONS THAT ARE UNDER TRAINING STORMS. RIGHT NOW THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREA FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
OTHERWISE, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS WITH A PREFERENCE
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY EVENING. MINIMUMS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND MAXIMUMS TOMORROW
WILL BE IN THE 80S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES INTO
THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. AS
THIS OCCURS, SOME OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BREAK OFF FROM THE MAIN WAVE AND RETROGRADE
AS A CLOSED LOW INTO THE MIDWEST. INITIALLY, THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FOR
SOME WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH COULD TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE LACK
OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT, DON`T THINK ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LAST
TOO LONG INTO THE EVENING. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP AGAIN ON THURSDAY EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AS TO
WHETHER THESE STORMS DEVELOP IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS OR REMAIN CONFINED
FARTHER SOUTH.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
OVER THE THE WESTERN STATES IS PROGGED TO LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE UPPER RIDGE GETS EJECTED EASTWARD.
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL BRUSH BY THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRYING OUT SOMEWHAT INTO
THE WEEKEND AND WITH WEAK UPPER FLOW, THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MINIMAL TO NON-EXISTENT. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
INCREASING AGAIN AS THE WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WAVE MOVES OUT
INTO THE PLAINS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF
THIS BUT IT SHOULD BE SOMETIME AROUND LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION WILL PLAY OUT TODAY/TONIGHT.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THERE
ISN`T ANY REAL DEFINITIVE PREFERENCE IN TARGET AREA. AS A RESULT, WILL
CONTINUE WITH VCTS/CB GROUPS FOR THIS EVENING AND WILL AMEND/ADJUST
AS NECESSARY IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN SPATIOTEMPORAL ARRANGEMENT
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DESPITE THE ABOVE, CIGS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 61 85 61 85 / 60 20 20 20
GCK 61 87 60 86 / 20 20 20 10
EHA 60 87 60 83 / 20 20 30 10
LBL 61 88 61 85 / 60 30 30 20
HYS 59 83 59 84 / 30 10 10 10
P28 60 82 62 85 / 50 30 20 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
226 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
THE FORECAST CONUNDRUM FOR THIS EVENING IS WHAT TO DO WITH
SPATIOTEMPORAL ARRANGEMENTS OF POPS. LARGELY BIASED POP ARRANGEMENT
TO THE MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND 4 KM NAM. THE GFS HAS
CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH THAN THESE MODELS AS AN OUTLIER. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A TROUGH AXIS THAT IS
DRAPED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. FARTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST, DRIER AIR HAS WORKED ITS WAY IN WITH CLEAR SKIES, SO AM
MORE DUBIOUS TO CONVECTION FORMING. THE CAVEAT TO THIS IS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO WHERE CUMULUS IS STARTING TO BUBBLE. THIS ACTIVITY
MIGHT NOT REACH OUR AREA AND THE PROBLEM WITH THAT IS THAT THE LOW
LEVEL JET FOR TONIGHT IS DISPLACED/FORECAST TO THE SOUTHEAST, SO NOT
SURE OUR NORTHWEST ZONES ARE IN THE AREA FOR SUSTAINED LATE NIGHT
CONVECTION VIA THE LOW LEVEL JET LIKE COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
ANYWAY, HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS FROM LIBERAL TO DODGE CITY TO LARNED
AND POINTS SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BE IN THE BETTER AREA OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT 500-
1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE ALONG WITH ABOUT 30 KT OF BULK SHARE. THE LARGE
HAIL PARAMETER VIA THE 12Z NAM SOLUTION COMES UP WITH A VALUE OF 4
TO 5, SUGGESTING THAT 1.5" WOULD BE THE MAX FOR UPPER HAIL SIZE
FORECAST DISTRIBUTION. PROBABLY WILL BE SMALLER AS CONVECTION
BECOMES QUASI-LINEAR (AT LEAST SHOWN IN THE MODELS) AND YOU GET
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND HIGHER BENEFICIAL COMPETITION
FOR HAIL EMBRYOS. SPEAKING OF WHICH, WITH A PWAT OF SLIGHTLY UNDER
+2SD, WOULD NOT RULE OUT ANOTHER 1-3" PRECIPITATION HIT FOR
LOCATIONS THAT ARE UNDER TRAINING STORMS. RIGHT NOW THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREA FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
OTHERWISE, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS WITH A PREFERENCE
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY EVENING. MINIMUMS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND MAXIMUMS TOMORROW
WILL BE IN THE 80S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES INTO
THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. AS
THIS OCCURS, SOME OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BREAK OFF FROM THE MAIN WAVE AND RETROGRADE
AS A CLOSED LOW INTO THE MIDWEST. INITIALLY, THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FOR
SOME WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH COULD TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE LACK
OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT, DON`T THINK ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LAST
TOO LONG INTO THE EVENING. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP AGAIN ON THURSDAY EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AS TO
WHETHER THESE STORMS DEVELOP IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS OR REMAIN CONFINED
FARTHER SOUTH.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
OVER THE THE WESTERN STATES IS PROGGED TO LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE UPPER RIDGE GETS EJECTED EASTWARD.
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL BRUSH BY THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRYING OUT SOMEWHAT INTO
THE WEEKEND AND WITH WEAK UPPER FLOW, THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MINIMAL TO NON-EXISTENT. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
INCREASING AGAIN AS THE WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WAVE MOVES OUT
INTO THE PLAINS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF
THIS BUT IT SHOULD BE SOMETIME AROUND LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION WILL PLAY OUT TODAY/TONIGHT.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THERE
ISN`T ANY REAL DEFINITIVE PREFERENCE IN TARGET AREA. AS A RESULT, WILL
CONTINUE WITH VCTS/CB GROUPS FOR THIS EVENING AND WILL AMEND/ADJUST
AS NECESSARY IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN SPATIOTEMPORAL ARRANGEMENT
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DESPITE THE ABOVE, CIGS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 61 85 61 85 / 60 20 20 20
GCK 61 87 60 86 / 20 20 20 10
EHA 60 87 60 83 / 20 20 30 10
LBL 61 88 61 85 / 60 30 30 20
HYS 59 83 59 84 / 30 10 10 10
P28 60 82 62 85 / 50 30 20 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
215 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
INITIALLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS TODAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED MCS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY OVER LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.
HOWEVER, RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR THAT INDICATE THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
SLIDE EAST OF HIGHWAY 183/281 BY MID MORNING. THIS WILL PERMIT CLOUDS
TO ERODE QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY PREVAILING
BY NOON.
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TOWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING AS THE
CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LEE TROUGH TO FURTHER INTENSITY AS IT
STALLS OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS WITH DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
SPREADING BACK NORTH KANSAS. STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION WITH
RESULTANT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN COMBINATION WITH
THE DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BRING MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500 J/KG ALONG WITH LITTLE INHIBITION BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL THEN SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE TROUGH BY EARLY EVENING OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS VIA EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. NONETHELESS,
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER TO HALF
DOLLAR SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD GROW
UPSCALE INTO AN MCS BY MID EVENING AND THEN SLIP EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS BY MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES INTO
THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. AS
THIS OCCURS, SOME OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BREAK OFF FROM THE MAIN WAVE AND RETROGRADE
AS A CLOSED LOW INTO THE MIDWEST. INITIALLY, THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FOR
SOME WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH COULD TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE LACK
OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT, DON`T THINK ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LAST
TOO LONG INTO THE EVENING. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP AGAIN ON THURSDAY EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AS TO
WHETHER THESE STORMS DEVELOP IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS OR REMAIN CONFINED
FARTHER SOUTH.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
OVER THE THE WESTERN STATES IS PROGGED TO LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE UPPER RIDGE GETS EJECTED EASTWARD.
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL BRUSH BY THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRYING OUT SOMEWHAT INTO
THE WEEKEND AND WITH WEAK UPPER FLOW, THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MINIMAL TO NON-EXISTENT. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
INCREASING AGAIN AS THE WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WAVE MOVES OUT
INTO THE PLAINS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF
THIS BUT IT SHOULD BE SOMETIME AROUND LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION WILL PLAY OUT TODAY/TONIGHT.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THERE
ISN`T ANY REAL DEFINITIVE PREFERENCE IN TARGET AREA. AS A RESULT, WILL
CONTINUE WITH VCTS/CB GROUPS FOR THIS EVENING AND WILL AMEND/ADJUST
AS NECESSARY IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN SPATIOTEMPORAL ARRANGEMENT
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DESPITE THE ABOVE, CIGS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 61 85 61 85 / 60 20 20 20
GCK 61 87 60 86 / 20 20 20 10
EHA 60 87 60 83 / 20 20 30 10
LBL 61 88 61 85 / 60 30 30 20
HYS 59 83 59 84 / 30 10 10 10
P28 60 82 62 85 / 50 30 20 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJOHNSON
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
THE 23.12Z 250-HPA MAP SHOWED A MID TO UPPER LEVEL PRESSURE PERTURBATION
LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ABOUT A 50-60-KT JET STREAK WAS
PASSING OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS AT THE BASE OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURE ROUGHLY
AT 180-HPA. FARTHER UPSTREAM, AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONE WAS LOCATED ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC WITH AN EXTENSION OF THE EAST ASIAN JET. ELSEWHERE
AND OTHERWISE, COLDER 500-HPA TEMPERATURES HAVE ADVECTED ACROSS THE
PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NORTHERN DISTURBANCE /-11C NOW VERSUS
-8C VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO/. AT THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS,
THE KDDC RAOB WAS SATURATED FROM 700-HPA TO JUST BELOW 500-HPA. THE
PWAT AT 1.43" HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED FROM YESTERDAY, WHICH IS
JUST BELOW +2SD. AT THE SFC, LEE TROUGHING CONTINUES WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
INITIALLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS TODAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED MCS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY OVER LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.
HOWEVER, RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR THAT INDICATE THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
SLIDE EAST OF HIGHWAY 183/281 BY MID MORNING. THIS WILL PERMIT CLOUDS
TO ERODE QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY PREVAILING
BY NOON.
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TOWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING AS THE
CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LEE TROUGH TO FURTHER INTENSITY AS IT
STALLS OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS WITH DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
SPREADING BACK NORTH KANSAS. STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION WITH
RESULTANT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN COMBINATION WITH
THE DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BRING MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500 J/KG ALONG WITH LITTLE INHIBITION BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL THEN SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE TROUGH BY EARLY EVENING OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS VIA EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. NONETHELESS,
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER TO HALF
DOLLAR SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD GROW
UPSCALE INTO AN MCS BY MID EVENING AND THEN SLIP EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS BY MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION WILL PASS WELL TO NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT AND
LINGER OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MEANWHILE, A
MUCH DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST
BY SATURDAY. WITH A WEAK 500MB COLD POOL IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS, ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SURFACE BASED CAPE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
PROFILE WILL WEAKEN EVEN FURTHER WITH TIME SO THAT SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED. GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTIONS,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S. THE LOWER LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO DRY OUT BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, RESULTING IN
NEGLIGIBLE SURFACE BASED CAPE AND HENCE, NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE WEST
COAST SYSTEM SLOWLY PROGRESSES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESIDING OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
AND MAY START TO TAP INTO RICHER GULF MOISTURE. HOWEVER, CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL OCCUR WELL EAST/SOUTHEAST OF WESTERN
KANSAS. SOME PRECIPITATION CAN`T BE RULED OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
APPROACHES THE PLAINS. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND
ON MOISTURE AVAILABILITY; AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE RICHER
MOISTURE MAY GET SHUNTED INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF COAST BY THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S, WITH SOME UPPER 70S POSSIBLE BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION WILL PLAY OUT TODAY/TONIGHT.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THERE
ISN`T ANY REAL DEFINITIVE PREFERENCE IN TARGET AREA. AS A RESULT, WILL
CONTINUE WITH VCTS/CB GROUPS FOR THIS EVENING AND WILL AMEND/ADJUST
AS NECESSARY IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN SPATIOTEMPORAL ARRANGEMENT
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DESPITE THE ABOVE, CIGS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 87 61 86 60 / 20 60 20 20
GCK 88 61 87 60 / 30 60 20 20
EHA 87 60 87 60 / 20 40 30 30
LBL 87 61 87 61 / 20 40 30 30
HYS 84 59 82 59 / 30 60 20 10
P28 85 60 83 60 / 20 50 30 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...AJOHNSON
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
937 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
THE 23.12Z 250-HPA MAP SHOWED A MID TO UPPER LEVEL PRESSURE PERTURBATION
LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ABOUT A 50-60-KT JET STREAK WAS
PASSING OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS AT THE BASE OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURE ROUGHLY
AT 180-HPA. FARTHER UPSTREAM, AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONE WAS LOCATED ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC WITH AN EXTENSION OF THE EAST ASIAN JET. ELSEWHERE
AND OTHERWISE, COLDER 500-HPA TEMPERATURES HAVE ADVECTED ACROSS THE
PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NORTHERN DISTURBANCE /-11C NOW VERSUS
-8C VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO/. AT THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS,
THE KDDC RAOB WAS SATURATED FROM 700-HPA TO JUST BELOW 500-HPA. THE
PWAT AT 1.43" HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED FROM YESTERDAY, WHICH IS
JUST BELOW +2SD. AT THE SFC, LEE TROUGHING CONTINUES WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
INITIALLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS TODAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED MCS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY OVER LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.
HOWEVER, RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR THAT INDICATE THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
SLIDE EAST OF HIGHWAY 183/281 BY MID MORNING. THIS WILL PERMIT CLOUDS
TO ERODE QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY PREVAILING
BY NOON.
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TOWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING AS THE
CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LEE TROUGH TO FURTHER INTENSITY AS IT
STALLS OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS WITH DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
SPREADING BACK NORTH KANSAS. STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION WITH
RESULTANT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN COMBINATION WITH
THE DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BRING MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500 J/KG ALONG WITH LITTLE INHIBITION BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL THEN SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE TROUGH BY EARLY EVENING OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS VIA EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. NONETHELESS,
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER TO HALF
DOLLAR SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD GROW
UPSCALE INTO AN MCS BY MID EVENING AND THEN SLIP EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS BY MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION WILL PASS WELL TO NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT AND
LINGER OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MEANWHILE, A
MUCH DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST
BY SATURDAY. WITH A WEAK 500MB COLD POOL IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS, ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SURFACE BASED CAPE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
PROFILE WILL WEAKEN EVEN FURTHER WITH TIME SO THAT SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED. GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTIONS,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S. THE LOWER LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO DRY OUT BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, RESULTING IN
NEGLIGIBLE SURFACE BASED CAPE AND HENCE, NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE WEST
COAST SYSTEM SLOWLY PROGRESSES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESIDING OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
AND MAY START TO TAP INTO RICHER GULF MOISTURE. HOWEVER, CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL OCCUR WELL EAST/SOUTHEAST OF WESTERN
KANSAS. SOME PRECIPITATION CAN`T BE RULED OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
APPROACHES THE PLAINS. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND
ON MOISTURE AVAILABILITY; AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE RICHER
MOISTURE MAY GET SHUNTED INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF COAST BY THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S, WITH SOME UPPER 70S POSSIBLE BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD, RESULTING IN BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE REGION WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR THE TAF SITES. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A MORE
ORGANIZED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 00 AND 06 UTC. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 86 61 86 60 / 20 60 20 20
GCK 87 61 87 60 / 30 60 20 20
EHA 86 60 87 60 / 20 40 30 30
LBL 87 61 87 61 / 20 40 30 30
HYS 82 59 82 59 / 30 60 20 10
P28 84 60 83 60 / 20 50 30 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...AJOHNSON
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
655 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
PAST MORNING UPPER AIR DATA ALONG WITH RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY EAST OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS. A COMPACT 50-60 KT JET STREAK ON THE BASE OF THIS
SYSTEM IS SEEN EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OF COLORADO INTO
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH A STRONGLY DIFLUENT PATTERN RESULTING
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WAVE IS RIDING UNDER A MODEST
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH A RESULTANT REX BLOCK PATTERN DOMINATING THE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY. CLOSE TO THE GROUND, THE LEE TROUGH IS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS WITH MODEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING BACK INTO THE AREA VIA DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. A LARGE MCS THAT FORMED FROM CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN COLORADO LAST EVENING...CONTINUES TO SLIDE SLOWLY EAST
FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
INITIALLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS TODAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED MCS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY OVER LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.
HOWEVER, RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR THAT INDICATE THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
SLIDE EAST OF HIGHWAY 183/281 BY MID MORNING. THIS WILL PERMIT CLOUDS
TO ERODE QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY PREVAILING
BY NOON.
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TOWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING AS THE
CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LEE TROUGH TO FURTHER INTENSITY AS IT
STALLS OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS WITH DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
SPREADING BACK NORTH KANSAS. STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION WITH
RESULTANT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN COMBINATION WITH
THE DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BRING MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500 J/KG ALONG WITH LITTLE INHIBITION BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL THEN SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE TROUGH BY EARLY EVENING OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS VIA EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. NONETHELESS,
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER TO HALF
DOLLAR SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD GROW
UPSCALE INTO AN MCS BY MID EVENING AND THEN SLIP EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS BY MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION WILL PASS WELL TO NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT AND
LINGER OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MEANWHILE, A
MUCH DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST
BY SATURDAY. WITH A WEAK 500MB COLD POOL IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS, ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SURFACE BASED CAPE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
PROFILE WILL WEAKEN EVEN FURTHER WITH TIME SO THAT SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED. GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTIONS,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S. THE LOWER LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO DRY OUT BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, RESULTING IN
NEGLIGIBLE SURFACE BASED CAPE AND HENCE, NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE WEST
COAST SYSTEM SLOWLY PROGRESSES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESIDING OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
AND MAY START TO TAP INTO RICHER GULF MOISTURE. HOWEVER, CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL OCCUR WELL EAST/SOUTHEAST OF WESTERN
KANSAS. SOME PRECIPITATION CAN`T BE RULED OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
APPROACHES THE PLAINS. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND
ON MOISTURE AVAILABILITY; AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE RICHER
MOISTURE MAY GET SHUNTED INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF COAST BY THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S, WITH SOME UPPER 70S POSSIBLE BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD, RESULTING IN BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE REGION WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR THE TAF SITES. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A MORE
ORGANIZED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 00 AND 06 UTC. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 85 61 86 60 / 20 60 20 20
GCK 87 61 87 60 / 30 60 20 20
EHA 86 60 87 60 / 20 40 30 30
LBL 87 61 87 61 / 20 40 30 30
HYS 80 59 82 59 / 30 60 20 10
P28 81 60 83 60 / 20 50 30 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...AJOHNSON
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
405 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
PAST MORNING UPPER AIR DATA ALONG WITH RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY EAST OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS. A COMPACT 50-60 KT JET STREAK ON THE BASE OF THIS
SYSTEM IS SEEN EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OF COLORADO INTO
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH A STRONGLY DIFLUENT PATTERN RESULTING
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WAVE IS RIDING UNDER A MODEST
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH A RESULTANT REX BLOCK PATTERN DOMINATING THE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY. CLOSE TO THE GROUND, THE LEE TROUGH IS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS WITH MODEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING BACK INTO THE AREA VIA DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. A LARGE MCS THAT FORMED FROM CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN COLORADO LAST EVENING...CONTINUES TO SLIDE SLOWLY EAST
FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
INITIALLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS TODAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED MCS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY OVER LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.
HOWEVER, RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR THAT INDICATE THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
SLIDE EAST OF HIGHWAY 183/281 BY MID MORNING. THIS WILL PERMIT CLOUDS
TO ERODE QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY PREVAILING
BY NOON.
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TOWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING AS THE
CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LEE TROUGH TO FURTHER INTENSITY AS IT
STALLS OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS WITH DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
SPREADING BACK NORTH KANSAS. STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION WITH
RESULTANT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN COMBINATION WITH
THE DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BRING MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500 J/KG ALONG WITH LITTLE INHIBITION BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL THEN SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE TROUGH BY EARLY EVENING OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS VIA EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. NONETHELESS,
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER TO HALF
DOLLAR SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD GROW
UPSCALE INTO AN MCS BY MID EVENING AND THEN SLIP EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS BY MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION WILL PASS WELL TO NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT AND
LINGER OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MEANWHILE, A
MUCH DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST
BY SATURDAY. WITH A WEAK 500MB COLD POOL IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS, ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SURFACE BASED CAPE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
PROFILE WILL WEAKEN EVEN FURTHER WITH TIME SO THAT SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED. GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTIONS,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S. THE LOWER LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO DRY OUT BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, RESULTING IN
NEGLIGIBLE SURFACE BASED CAPE AND HENCE, NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE WEST
COAST SYSTEM SLOWLY PROGRESSES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESIDING OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
AND MAY START TO TAP INTO RICHER GULF MOISTURE. HOWEVER, CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL OCCUR WELL EAST/SOUTHEAST OF WESTERN
KANSAS. SOME PRECIPITATION CAN`T BE RULED OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
APPROACHES THE PLAINS. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND
ON MOISTURE AVAILABILITY; AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE RICHER
MOISTURE MAY GET SHUNTED INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF COAST BY THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S, WITH SOME UPPER 70S POSSIBLE BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
A SLOW MOVING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS THIS EARLY MORNING...WILL IMPACT THE HYS TERMINAL DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO STAY IN THE
MVFR RANGE OR HIGHER...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY DROP VISIBILITY VALUES
INTO AN IFR RANGE FOR BRIEF PERIODS. OTHERWISE...THIS LINE OF
STORMS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF BOTH THE DDC AND GCK TERMINALS
THROUGH TONIGHT. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TOWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON
TO EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL KANSAS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY POTENTIALLY BE STRONG
TO SEVERE WITH HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE THE MAIN HAZARD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 85 61 86 60 / 20 60 20 20
GCK 87 61 87 60 / 30 60 20 20
EHA 86 60 87 60 / 20 40 30 30
LBL 87 61 87 61 / 20 40 30 30
HYS 80 59 82 59 / 30 60 20 10
P28 81 60 83 60 / 20 50 30 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...AJOHNSON
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...AJOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1113 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014
ANOTHER UPDATE TO POP/WX TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT COVERAGE. SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY TURN TOWARDS
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR...SO MOVED HIGHER POPS ACCORDINGLY. TIMING
OF PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL SEEMS REASONABLE...SO BLENDED INTO
FORECAST AT 09Z.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 723 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014
ADJUSTED POP/WX FOR CURRENT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER YUMA COUNTY.
MEAN WIND WOULD GENERALLY FAVOR THIS SLIDING EAST. SOUTHERN EDGE
COULD SEE FURTHER DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT TO THE SW AHEAD OF
TROUGH AXIS...AND COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT COULD ALLOW FOR THIS
ACTIVITY SLIDING FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS I-70 CORRIDOR (IN LINE WITH
HRRR). THERE IS ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OFF PALMER DIVIDE.
THERE IS STILL A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR AND LIKELY SUBSIDENCE
MOVING NE OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...HOWEVER AS LONG AS
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH H5 TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE INTO THE
AREA WE COULD SEE ACTIVITY LINGER FURTHER INTO THE NIGHT. HAVE
BLENDED TOWARDS PREVIOUS FORECAST WITHOUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OR
DRY SIGNAL IN GUIDANCE TO DECREASE INHERITED POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSITION SHOULD STILL BE WEST TO EAST FOLLOWING TIMING OF MAIN
UPPER LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014
18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE TRI STATE AREA THROUGH NORTHERN
COLORADO. AT THE SFC...TROUGHING NEAR THE KS/CO STATE LINE HAD
RESULTED IN STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED STRONG TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. NEAR
TERM MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT ELEVATED MOSTLY WEAK INSTABILITY
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT...BUT NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS SHOWING
A HIGH DEGREE OF VARIABILITY ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS APPROACH
HOLDING HIGHEST POPS ALONG NORTHERN CWA WHICH IS CLOSER TO UPPER
LOW CENTER. MORNING UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PW VALUES AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...BUT WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY...MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND SCATTERED NATURE OF CURRENT
PRECIPITATION HAVE KEPT ONLY MODEST PRECIP AMOUNTS.
PRECIP THREAT WILL DIMINISH TOMORROW MORNING AS UPPER TROUGH
DEPARTS AND FRONT STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA. THIS FRONT MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS SHOULD CINH
BE OVERCOME.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENT SHOWING A WEAKENING UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING
INTO MINNESOTA WITH A TRAILING TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS. AFTER THAT...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE RAPIDLY
AS TO THE FATE OF THE UPPER LOW. BY THURSDAY EVENING...GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE UPPER LOW ANYWHERE FROM AMARILLO TX /NAM/ TO ROCHESTER
MN /EC/. THE NAM LOOKS TOO FAR WEST AND TOO FAST WITH SLOWER
EC/GFS PREFERRED. BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY GIVEN MODEL
SOLUTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS BASED ON A BLEND OF GENERAL MODEL TRENDS
WHICH BASICALLY HAS THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER LOW MORE OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS WITH OUR AREA TEMPORARILY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPSTREAM UPPER HIGH WHICH STRETCHES FROM THE DAKOTAS TO
COLORADO. SO IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE TRENDED DOWNWARD WEST TO EAST WITH
SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING ALOFT BEING TO OUR EAST. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT
WITH THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER LOW AND BRING IT BACK NORTH...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN TO SAY THE LEAST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WERE KEPT DRY UNTIL THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT
AT SHRA/TSRA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 80S MID TO LATE WEEK BUT
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES NEXT WEEKEND...AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE 70S WITH ENHANCED POTENTIAL
FOR CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014
MODERATE SHOWERS AT KMCK AND THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD. SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONGER AT KMCK. STRATUS AND FOG WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DECREASING
WINDS/CLEARING SKIES ALONG KS/CO STATE LINE. THIS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT KGLD WITH AT LEAST TEMPO IFR CIG/VIS AROUND 12Z. EXPECTING
BETTER LOW LEVEL MIXING (SURFACE-BL WINDS) TO LIMIT FOG/STRATUS
AT KMCK. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THOUGH IN THE EVENT WINDS GO CALM.
AFTER MID MORNING VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1038 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014
ANOTHER UPDATE TO POP/WX TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT COVERAGE. SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY TURN TOWARDS
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR...SO MOVED HIGHER POPS ACCORDINGLY. TIMING
OF PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL SEEMS REASONABLE...SO BLENDED INTO
FORECAST AT 09Z.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 723 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014
ADJUSTED POP/WX FOR CURRENT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER YUMA COUNTY.
MEAN WIND WOULD GENERALLY FAVOR THIS SLIDING EAST. SOUTHERN EDGE
COULD SEE FURTHER DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT TO THE SW AHEAD OF
TROUGH AXIS...AND COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT COULD ALLOW FOR THIS
ACTIVITY SLIDING FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS I-70 CORRIDOR (IN LINE WITH
HRRR). THERE IS ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OFF PALMER DIVIDE.
THERE IS STILL A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR AND LIKELY SUBSIDENCE
MOVING NE OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...HOWEVER AS LONG AS
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH H5 TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE INTO THE
AREA WE COULD SEE ACTIVITY LINGER FURTHER INTO THE NIGHT. HAVE
BLENDED TOWARDS PREVIOUS FORECAST WITHOUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OR
DRY SIGNAL IN GUIDANCE TO DECREASE INHERITED POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSITION SHOULD STILL BE WEST TO EAST FOLLOWING TIMING OF MAIN
UPPER LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014
18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE TRI STATE AREA THROUGH NORTHERN
COLORADO. AT THE SFC...TROUGHING NEAR THE KS/CO STATE LINE HAD
RESULTED IN STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED STRONG TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. NEAR
TERM MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT ELEVATED MOSTLY WEAK INSTABILITY
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT...BUT NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS SHOWING
A HIGH DEGREE OF VARIABILITY ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS APPROACH
HOLDING HIGHEST POPS ALONG NORTHERN CWA WHICH IS CLOSER TO UPPER
LOW CENTER. MORNING UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PW VALUES AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...BUT WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY...MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND SCATTERED NATURE OF CURRENT
PRECIPITATION HAVE KEPT ONLY MODEST PRECIP AMOUNTS.
PRECIP THREAT WILL DIMINISH TOMORROW MORNING AS UPPER TROUGH
DEPARTS AND FRONT STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA. THIS FRONT MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS SHOULD CINH
BE OVERCOME.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENT SHOWING A WEAKENING UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING
INTO MINNESOTA WITH A TRAILING TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS. AFTER THAT...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE RAPIDLY
AS TO THE FATE OF THE UPPER LOW. BY THURSDAY EVENING...GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE UPPER LOW ANYWHERE FROM AMARILLO TX /NAM/ TO ROCHESTER
MN /EC/. THE NAM LOOKS TOO FAR WEST AND TOO FAST WITH SLOWER
EC/GFS PREFERRED. BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY GIVEN MODEL
SOLUTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS BASED ON A BLEND OF GENERAL MODEL TRENDS
WHICH BASICALLY HAS THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER LOW MORE OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS WITH OUR AREA TEMPORARILY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPSTREAM UPPER HIGH WHICH STRETCHES FROM THE DAKOTAS TO
COLORADO. SO IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE TRENDED DOWNWARD WEST TO EAST WITH
SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING ALOFT BEING TO OUR EAST. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT
WITH THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER LOW AND BRING IT BACK NORTH...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN TO SAY THE LEAST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WERE KEPT DRY UNTIL THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT
AT SHRA/TSRA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 80S MID TO LATE WEEK BUT
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES NEXT WEEKEND...AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE 70S WITH ENHANCED POTENTIAL
FOR CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 516 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE WITHIN VICINITY OF BOTH
TERMINALS AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NE COLORADO SHOULD MOVE ALONG KS/NE BORDER AND
POSSIBLY IMPACT KMCK DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS SHOULD END
AT KGLD FIRST...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF MAIN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AT KMCK. SHORT TERM AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWING STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG KS/CO BORDER WHICH
COULD IMPACT KGLD...POSSIBLY KMCK AROUND 12Z. I KEPT IFR CIG GROUP
IN PLACE AROUND 12Z AT KGLD...BUT I AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
LOWER CONDITIONS AT KMCK WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER MID MORNING TUESDAY REGARDLESS OF
EVOLUTION OF STRATUS AS MIXING INCREASES AT BOTH TERMINALS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1258 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM UPDATE: NO SIG CHGS TO THE GOING FCST. HRRR HRLY MODEL SIM
RADAR REF DOES SHOW SHWRS MOVG INTO THE FA OVR THE NEXT FEW HRS...
WHICH SEEMS TO BE BACKED BY ACTUAL CAN-AM RADAR IMAGERY...WHICH
SHOWS SHWRS QUICKLY ADVCG TOWARD NW ME FROM THE LAURENTIAN
HIGHLANDS OF QB. OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTN WERE ADJUSTED TO SLIGHTLY MODIFIED HI TEMPS...WHERE THE
FCST WAS RAISED A COUPLE OF MORE DEG OVR NW ME BASED ON TRENDS
OBSVD FROM NOON OBS FROM THE PRIOR TEMP FCST AT NOON.
PRIOR DISC: THE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A COOL GUSTY WESTERLY BREEZE TODAY. A BIT OF
MOISTURE POOLED IN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WILL SWING
ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING
THE MIDDAY. DOWNEAST WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING THE AIR TO BECOME COLD AND
CALM UNDER CLEAR SKIES. FROST IS LIKELY IN MANY CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SPOTS TOWARD MORNING.&&
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT KEEPING GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH THE BETTER
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH MONDAY KEEPING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL LEVEL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. A GUSTY
WEST WIND CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE AIR BECOMING CALM
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 1230 PM UPDATE...WV HTS HAVE DROPPED TO ABT 5 FT AND
WINDS HAVE FALLEN TO MSLY BLO 20 KT OVR THE OUTER MZS...SO WITH
A CONTD XPCTD GRAD SUBSIDING TREND XPCTD TO CONT THRU THE REST OF
THE DAY INTO TNGT... WE HAVE DROPPED THE REMAINING SCA.
ORGNL DISC...AN SCA WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS OVER 5 FT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SEAS SUBSIDE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
816 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR TROF FM
SCENTRAL CANADA THRU THE PLAINS IN BTWN A RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND
ANOTHER CENTERED OVER THE ERN GREAT LKS. THERE ARE SEVERAL SHRTWVS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPR TROF. ONE OF THESE IS MOVING NEWD THRU MN
AND IS CAUSING SCT SHOWERS IN WRN WI WHERE SOME DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC IN THE DPVA IS INTERACTING WITH SOME DEEP MSTR SHOWN ON THE
12Z MPX RAOB...WHERE THE PWAT WAS ABOUT 1.15 INCH OR 160 PCT OF
NORMAL. BUT THE RAOBS SHOW MUCH DRIER AIR IS PRESENT JUST TO THE E
OF THIS MOIST AIRMASS...WITH 12Z PWATS AS LO AS 0.46 INCH AT QUAD
CITIES IOWA /55 PCT OF NORMAL/ AND 0.62 INCH AT GRB /85 PCT OF
NORMAL/. THE 12Z H85 AND H7 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS AT THOSE 2 SITES WERE
20-30C. BECAUSE OF THE PRESENCE OF THIS DRY AIR...ONLY MID/HI CLDS
SO FAR HAVE INVADED UPR MI AHEAD OF THE UPR TROF. SOME OF THE
SHOWERS IN NW WI ARE APRCHG IRONWOOD.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE ARND CLDS/POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH TROF TO THE W AND THE CLDS IMPACT ON TEMPS.
AS A DEEP UPR TROF OFF THE W COAST PRESSES TO THE E...THE TROF OVER
CENTRAL NAMERICA IS FCST TO WEEKEN STEADILY THRU THU UNDER THE
LARGER SCALE HGT RISES TO THE E OF THE TROF...INCLUDING IN THE GREAT
LKS. THE RESULT WL BE DIMINISHING DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC...WITH DEEP
LYR QVECTOR DVGC DOMINATING THE ENTIRE CWA ON THU. SINCE THE LLVL
FLOW IS FCST TO VEER ONLY SLOWLY FM THE S TO THE SW...THE ADVECTION
OF THE VERY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE QUAD CITIES/GRB RAOBS WL
AFFECT THE E HALF OF THE CWA THRU THU. SO IN THIS AREA...EXPECT ONLY
SOME MID/HI CLDS INTO THU. OVER THE W HALF...THE SLOWLY WEAKENING
DYNAMIC FORCING THRU THE NGT WL INTERACT WITH MOISTER AIR SHOWN ON
THE MPX RAOB AND FCST PWAT UP TO 160-170 PCT OF NORMAL TO GENERATE
SOME SCT LGT SHOWERS BEGINNING THIS AFTN. BUT THESE WL BEGIN TO FADE
ON THU IN THE FACE OF THE INCRSG DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC. AS FOR
TEMPS...THE GREATER INFLUX OF MSTR AND A STEADY SSW FLOW UNDER
SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT WL GREATLY RESTRICT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP
OVER THE W AND HOLD MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S. WITH DRIER AIR/A BIT
WEAKER H925 FLOW OVER THE E...EXPECT TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...LO ENUF TO ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AS SHOWN
IN CURRENT FCST. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF LINGERING CLD COVER ON THU
ESPECIALLY OVER THE W...OPTED TO LOWER FCST HI TEMPS AT MOST PLACES
THERE INTO THE 60S. THE HIEST TEMPS ON THU INTO THE 70S ARE MOST
LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL AND E AWAY FM THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF LK
MI IN THE LLVL SLY FLOW AND WHERE THERE WL A BIT MORE SUNSHINE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
...WARMER THAN NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND WITH QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTN WILL
BE EXITING EAST OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING. HEIGHT RISES
SHOULD END ANY LGT RAIN SHOWERS EARLIER IN THE DAY...THOUGH A LOWER
MID CLOUD DECK 3-8KFT COULD REMAIN STUCK OVER AT LEAST WESTERN CWA
PER NAM AND GFS BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN
TO FADE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT OR MAYBE AS LATE AS FRIDAY MORNING
WITH SUBSIDENCE INCREASING AND SOME WEAK DRY ADVECTION BELOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WHILE THE WESTERN CWA WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE
CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT...EASTERN CWA SHOULD CLEAR OUT FM MID CLOUDS
EARLY IN THE EVENING...ALLOWING FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING AS
PWATS ARE BLO 50 PCT OF NORMAL. LOWERED MINS INTO THE MID 40S FOR
INTERIOR EAST AND ALSO ADDED FOG. WINDS ABOVE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER
ARE 10-15 KT FM THE SW...SO THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT FOG WOULD TURN
OUT TO BE VERY LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK. BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND
CLEARING OF THE LOW-MID CLOUDS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY SHOULD ALLOW MIXING
TO AT LEAST H875 AND POSSIBLY H85. EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
OVER ALL CWA...EXCEPT NEAR LK MICHIGAN.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL. UPPER RIDGE
SLIDES ACROSS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A REMNANT OF MID TO
UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD INTO THURSDAY MAY TRY TO LIFT BACK TOWARD
AREA ON SATURDAY. MAY SEE REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
LEADING TO FOG OR STRATUS ON FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
INTERIOR CENTRAL AND EAST CWA WITH LIGHTER WINDS CLOSER TO SFC RIDGE
AXIS. ONLY SCT MID CLOUDS WOULD RESULT FM THE MID LEVEL ENERGY WEAK
AS IT IS...AND AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT A BIG IMPACT TO THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. CAVEAT THOUGH IS WE ARE IN THAT TIME OF YEAR
WHERE SUN ANGLE IS LOWER SO IF LOW CLOUDS ARE MORE WIDESPREAD AND
THICKER THAN EXPECTED BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THEY COULD TAKE
A WHILE TO BURN OFF /LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN INSTEAD OF MID
MORNING EARLIER IN THE SUMMER/. OVERALL THOUGH...AT THE LEAST...MOST
AREAS AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN SHOULD SEE A DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AS H85 TEMPS PUSH 12-14C BY AFTN. NORMAL HIGHS FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER ARE LOW TO MID 60S.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS LACKING /H7-H5 RH LESS THAN 50 PCT/ SO
ONLY EXPECT SCATTERED MID CLOUDS. SFC RIDGE STILL CLOSE BY WITH WEST
TO EAST AXIS MAINLY AFFECTING EASTERN CWA. PWATS ON THE INCREASE
WITH THE UPPER LOW REMNANT NEARBY...SO RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL
SEEMS LESS THAN PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS. MINS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY IN THE
50S FOR THE CWA. INTO SUNDAY...DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR WITH
REGARD TO HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LEVEL FLATTENS OUT ALLOWING FOR A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO WORK IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO NORTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHWEST QUEBEC. GEM-NH
AND ECMWF ARE QUICKER BRINGING THIS FRONT THROUGH...FAVORING A FROPA
ON SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...GFS INSISTS ON A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING THROUGH AND MORE OF A SFC TROUGH FORMING...KEEPING SW WINDS
OVER UPR MICHIGAN THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY BEFORE FROPA OCCURS. WPC
AND CONSENSUS BLEND GOES AWAY FM THE GFS AND THIS FORECAST WILL DO
LIKEWISE. RESULT WILL BE MORE MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON SUNDAY...THEN A COOLING TREND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES SEEM SMALL AS STRONGER FORCING STAYS TO NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR
THROUGH MONDAY AND THERE IS MINIMAL THETA-E ADVECTION FOR FRONT TO
WORK WITH AS IT MOVES THROUGH. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THE COOLING TREND
AND PROBABLY DECENT AMOUNT OF LOWER CLOUDS FOR MONDAY.
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVES BY MIDWEEK. MOISTURE ADVECTION BETTER
WITH THIS FRONT AS SOUTH WINDS BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
COUPLE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVES SHOULD LIFT ACROSS AHEAD OF LARGER
SCALE TROUGHING SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. TSRA
CHANCES SMALL AS AXIS OF HIGHER MLCAPES ARE FORECAST TO STAY TO WEST
OF CWA...CLOSER TO FRONT SIDE OF LARGER SCALE TROUGHING ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 814 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING WITH THE APPROACH OF
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVELDISTURBANCE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
AT THE TAF SITES WITH A PERSISTENT FEED OF LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE AT IWD...WHICH IS CLOSER TO MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. AS THE WINDS SLOWLY VEERS TOWARD THE SW...THE ARRIVAL OF
THE HIGHER MOISTURE SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THU MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND COOL LAKE WATERS/HI STABILITY...EXPECT WINDS NO
HIER THAN 20 KTS THRU MON. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MORE HUMID AIR OVER
THE UNUSUALLY COOL LK WATERS...SOME FOG MAY FORM LATE THU NIGHT INTO
FRI AND LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
435 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG AXIS BLDG
INTO THE GREAT LKS IN ADVANCE OF A SHRTWV MOVING NEWD THRU THE
NCENTRAL PLAINS. WITH SFC HI PRES RDG STRETCHING FM OHIO NWWD THRU
THE UPR MIDWEST UNDER THE UPR RDG AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...12Z
PWAT WAS AS LO AS ABOUT 0.50 INCH /ABOUT 70 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ AT
MPX...SKIES ARE MOSUNNY. THERE IS A BACK DOOR COLD FNT SLIPPING
SLOWLY SWWD THRU THRU THE E HALF OF LK SUP ASSOCIATED WITH BLDG HI
PRES NEAR JAMES BAY...BUT THE AIRMASS IS SO DRY THERE ARE NO CLDS
ALONG THIS BNDRY IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY DYNAMIC SUPPORT. H85 TEMPS
ARE AS HI AS 12-13C...SUPPORTING TEMPS THAT HAVE RISEN INTO THE 70S
AWAY FM LK MODERATION. LOOKING UPSTREAM...HI CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH
PLAINS SHRTWV ARE ADVANCING INTO NW WI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON TEMPS AND
EXPECTED CLD COVER/POTENTIAL FOR ANY SHOWERS LATER ON WED OVER AT
LEAST THE FAR WRN CWA IN ADVANCE OF DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU THE
PLAINS.
LATE TDAY/TNGT...ALTHOUGH BACK DOOR COLD FNT REINFORCED BY LK BREEZE
FORMATION/INLAND HEATING MAY SLIP INTO THE CWA BORDERING LK SUP FM
THE KEWEENAW E TOWARD WHITEFISH PT LATE THIS AFTN...SUBSIDENCE/DRY
AIRMASS WL LIMIT IMPACT TO SOME LOCAL COOLING NEAR THE SHORE.
OTRW...HI CLDS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHRTWV MOVING NEWD THRU THE PLAINS
WL ARRIVE OVER AT LEAST THE W HALF OF UPR MI OVERNT. THE COMBINATION
OF THESE INCRSG HI CLDS/STRENGTHENING SSW H925 FLOW TO 25 KTS LATE
UNDER A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT CLOSER TO INCOMING SHRTWV WL LIMIT THE
DIURNAL TEMP FALL OVER THE W. THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP MAY
NOT SEE TEMPS FALL BLO 50. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS NEAR 40 AT
THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS OVER THE E UNDER WEAKER GRADIENT/LINGERING
DRIER AIR. MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG FCST IN THE FCST FOR THE E HALF
WITH FVRBL DIURNAL COOLING.
WED...AS SHRTWV MOVES INTO NE MN/NW WI BY LATE AND SOME DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC OVERSPREADS UPR MI...AT LEAST MID/HI CLDS WL BE
THICKENING SW-NE THRU THE DAY. A NUMBER OF THE MODELS GENERATE SOME
LGT PCPN OVER THE FAR W LATE IN THE AFTN WHERE THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES A DEEPER INCRS IN MSTR UNDER THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT HOW QUICKLY THE NEAR SFC LYR WL
MOISTEN...THE NAM AND GFS BOTH INDICATE PWAT WL INCRS TO 1.25-1.35
INCH OR ABOUT 175 PCT OF NORMAL. SO INTRODUCED SOME LO CHC POPS INTO
THE FAR W LATE IN THE DAY. INCRSG CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL RISE IN
TEMP TO THE 60S AT MOST PLACES DESPITE STEADY S WIND THAT MAINTAINS
H85 TEMPS IN THE 10-12C RANGE. THE HIEST TEMPS MOST LIKELY TO REACH
AOA 70 WL BE OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E AWAY FM MODERATION OFF LK MI
AND WHERE THE CLDS WL THICKEN LATER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TEMP WISE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID AND UPPER 70S. THE COOLEST
READINGS WILL BE FOUND ALONG LAKE MI...ON S WINDS. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE ON THOSE DAYS WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...AND THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE W HALF. THIS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500MB THROUGH THAT WILL BE SHIFTING FROM W
LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.P. BY 12Z
THURSDAY. KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE W HALF. THE
SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND WITH NO REAL PULL OF MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF...LIMITED PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED. THE WEAKENING TROUGH
WILL SINK SE THURSDAY...WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
DAY.
AT THAT POINT...THE SIZABLE 500MB RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM MUCH OF THE
W AND CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. A SFC TROUGH
SET UP N OF LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY MAY SINK ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON
SUNDAY. WENT WITH COOLER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT
STILL MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS MOVING
ACROSS MORE OF N UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...A
FEW MORE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS COME TUESDAY AS THE MAIN 500MB RIDGE EXITS TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014
ALTHOUGH SOME HI CLDS IN ADVANCE OF A DISTURBANCE MOVING NE FM THE
PLAINS WL INVADE UPR MI LATE TNGT/WED...DRY LLVL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH HI PRES WL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL 3 TAF SITES THIS FCST
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THRU
THIS COMING WEEKEND AND COOL LAKE WATERS/HI STABILITY...EXPECT WINDS
NO HIGHER THAN 20 KTS THRU SUN.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
250 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG AXIS BLDG
INTO THE GREAT LKS IN ADVANCE OF A SHRTWV MOVING NEWD THRU THE
NCENTRAL PLAINS. WITH SFC HI PRES RDG STRETCHING FM OHIO NWWD THRU
THE UPR MIDWEST UNDER THE UPR RDG AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...12Z
PWAT WAS AS LO AS ABOUT 0.50 INCH /ABOUT 70 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ AT
MPX...SKIES ARE MOSUNNY. THERE IS A BACK DOOR COLD FNT SLIPPING
SLOWLY SWWD THRU THRU THE E HALF OF LK SUP ASSOCIATED WITH BLDG HI
PRES NEAR JAMES BAY...BUT THE AIRMASS IS SO DRY THERE ARE NO CLDS
ALONG THIS BNDRY IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY DYNAMIC SUPPORT. H85 TEMPS
ARE AS HI AS 12-13C...SUPPORTING TEMPS THAT HAVE RISEN INTO THE 70S
AWAY FM LK MODERATION. LOOKING UPSTREAM...HI CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH
PLAINS SHRTWV ARE ADVANCING INTO NW WI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON TEMPS AND
EXPECTED CLD COVER/POTENTIAL FOR ANY SHOWERS LATER ON WED OVER AT
LEAST THE FAR WRN CWA IN ADVANCE OF DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU THE
PLAINS.
LATE TDAY/TNGT...ALTHOUGH BACK DOOR COLD FNT REINFORCED BY LK BREEZE
FORMATION/INLAND HEATING MAY SLIP INTO THE CWA BORDERING LK SUP FM
THE KEWEENAW E TOWARD WHITEFISH PT LATE THIS AFTN...SUBSIDENCE/DRY
AIRMASS WL LIMIT IMPACT TO SOME LOCAL COOLING NEAR THE SHORE.
OTRW...HI CLDS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHRTWV MOVING NEWD THRU THE PLAINS
WL ARRIVE OVER AT LEAST THE W HALF OF UPR MI OVERNT. THE COMBINATION
OF THESE INCRSG HI CLDS/STRENGTHENING SSW H925 FLOW TO 25 KTS LATE
UNDER A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT CLOSER TO INCOMING SHRTWV WL LIMIT THE
DIURNAL TEMP FALL OVER THE W. THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP MAY
NOT SEE TEMPS FALL BLO 50. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS NEAR 40 AT
THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS OVER THE E UNDER WEAKER GRADIENT/LINGERING
DRIER AIR. MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG FCST IN THE FCST FOR THE E HALF
WITH FVRBL DIURNAL COOLING.
WED...AS SHRTWV MOVES INTO NE MN/NW WI BY LATE AND SOME DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC OVERSPREADS UPR MI...AT LEAST MID/HI CLDS WL BE
THICKENING SW-NE THRU THE DAY. A NUMBER OF THE MODELS GENERATE SOME
LGT PCPN OVER THE FAR W LATE IN THE AFTN WHERE THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES A DEEPER INCRS IN MSTR UNDER THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT HOW QUICKLY THE NEAR SFC LYR WL
MOISTEN...THE NAM AND GFS BOTH INDICATE PWAT WL INCRS TO 1.25-1.35
INCH OR ABOUT 175 PCT OF NORMAL. SO INTRODUCED SOME LO CHC POPS INTO
THE FAR W LATE IN THE DAY. INCRSG CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL RISE IN
TEMP TO THE 60S AT MOST PLACES DESPITE STEADY S WIND THAT MAINTAINS
H85 TEMPS IN THE 10-12C RANGE. THE HIEST TEMPS MOST LIKELY TO REACH
AOA 70 WL BE OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E AWAY FM MODERATION OFF LK MI
AND WHERE THE CLDS WL THICKEN LATER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A
PLEASANT END TO SEPTEMBER. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EACH
DAY (VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S)...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. THERE ARE ONLY TWO PERIODS OF
CONCERN WITH CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SHOWER BRUSHING THE AREA. THE FIRST
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY SPINNING IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS SHIFTS TOWARDS
THE AREA. EXPECT THE BEST ENERGY WITH THE WAVE TO BE TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...BUT IT COULD PUSH A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS
NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN U.P. AS THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DISTURBANCE BECOMES INFLUENCED BY A SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE IN CANADA. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE
FARTHER EAST WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AND WESTERN U.P. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY OVER THE WEST. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL WEAKEN
AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND LEAD TO
DECREASING CLOUDS. THE OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A COLD FRONT
POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE SOLUTIONS WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH THE ECMWF
DISSIPATING IT OVER NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE GFS RUNNING IT
THROUGH THE CWA. THINK SLOWLY DROPPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. THE UPPER
TROUGH CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST STILL APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...LEADING TO MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014
ALTHOUGH SOME HI CLDS IN ADVANCE OF A DISTURBANCE MOVING NE FM THE
PLAINS WL INVADE UPR MI LATE TNGT/WED...DRY LLVL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH HI PRES WL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL 3 TAF SITES THIS FCST
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THRU
THIS COMING WEEKEND AND COOL LAKE WATERS/HI STABILITY...EXPECT WINDS
NO HIGHER THAN 20 KTS THRU SUN.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
743 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014
A SLOW MOVING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW WARMING
TREND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014
THE ONLY ISSUE OF CONCERN IS WILL THERE BE PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT? OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
I PUT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY SINCE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT..SKIES CLEAR AND WITH THE
LONGER HOURS OF DARKNESS THERE IS MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP. DEW POINTS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 40S... SO IT WILL BE
EASY TO COOL TO THE DEW POINT GIVEN THAT.
ALSO GIVEN THE SUNNY...DRY WEATHER I INCREASED THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES 1 TO 2 DEGREES FOR BOTH TODAY...WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTROLS THE WEATHER TODAY BUT THEN A WEAKENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
SINCE THROUGH 700 MB HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL... THERE IS
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE FOR THE UPPER TROUGH TO WORK WITH SO
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EVEN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014
TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE
AND UPPER HIGH WILL REST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK...WHILE AN UPPER LOW RETROGRADES WESTWARD ACROSS MO
AND INTO KS. THIS LOW OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION ONLY HELPS TO
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
RIDGE DOES SHOW SOME WEAKENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A SHORT
WAVE COMES INTO IT. HOWEVER IT APPEARS DOUBTFUL THAT THIS WAVE WILL
BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ANY PCPN AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS STOUT.
AS FOR TEMPS...THE WARMEST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE SHOULD
COINCIDE WITH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS OF 75 TO 80 BEING COMMONPLACE.
MONDAY SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN WITH THE SHORT WAVE MOVING IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DURING
THE NIGHT TIME HOURS BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND BETWEEN 5 TO 10
KNOTS DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A FEW
CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON (AS SEEN ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP AND NAM).
SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING (SHOWN BY CROSSING
OF TEMP AND DEW POINT NEAR THE GROUND ON THOSE SAME MODELS
SOUNDINGS). I PUT THE FOG ONLY AT THE SITES THAT GET THE MOST
FREQUENTLY REPORT FOG BUT IT MAY IMPACT NEARLY ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. LATE SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO LOOK MORE CLOSELY AT THAT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014
NO ISSUES WORTHY OF NOTE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014
DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW
FALL ON AREA RIVERS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
120 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE GREAT LKS BTWN UPR RDG IN THE PLAINS AND TROF IN ERN NAMERICA.
SFC HI PRES IS MOVING INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH LLVL WNW
FLOW ON THE NRN FLANK OF THIS FEATURE ADVECTING SOME DRY AIR SHOWN
ON THE 12Z INL RAOB TOWARD UPR MI. THERE WERE SOME CLDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS MRNG ASSOCIATED WITH WAD/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN
ON THE 290K SFC /ABOUT H85/ THIS MRNG...BUT SINCE THE COOLER AIR
UNDER THE TROF IN ERN CANADA IS RETREATING...LINGERING CLD COVER
EARLY THIS AFTN HAS SHIFTED TO MAINLY THE ERN CWA. WITH MORE
SUNSHINE OVER THE W...TEMPS HAVE RISEN ABV NORMAL AND TO 65-70 AWAY
FM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE LKS. LOOKING TO THE W...SKIES ARE
MOCLR THRU MN UNDER H5 HGT RISES/SFC RDG AXIS EXTENDING N FM THE HI
CENTER/DRY AIRMASS WITH PWAT AS LO AS 0.40-0.50 INCH...BUT MORE HI
CLDS ARE SPREADING NE THRU THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A SHRTWV
LIFTING THRU THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON TEMPS WITH DRY
HI PRES EXPECTED TO DOMINATE.
TNGT...WITH SFC HI PRES RDG MOVING OVER THE CWA UNDER RISING HGTS/
DRY AIRMASS...EXPECT MOCLR CONDITIONS. DESPITE THE DRYNESS OF THE
INCOMING AIRMASS...THE WARMTH OF THIS AIR WITH H85 TEMPS FCST NEAR
12C AT 12Z TUE AS WELL AS STEADY WNW H925 WINDS UP TO 15-20 KTS WL
KEEP TEMPS FM FALLING AS LO AS LAST NGT. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS
OVER THE INTERIOR SCENTRAL CLOSER TO THE LIGHTER H925 WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HI PRES CENTER PASSING NEAR THE LOWER LKS. BUT TEMPS
WL NOT FALL BLO 40...SO THERE WL BE NO FROST.
TUE...AS THE SFC HI SHIFTS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...THE LLVL
FLOW IS FCST TO BACK TO THE SSW. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE UNDER
LINGERING DRY AIRMASS AND H85 TEMPS HOLDING ARND 12C...EXPECT TEMPS
TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S AWAY FM LK MODERATION...WHICH WL OCCUR MAINLY
DOWNWIND OF LK MI. BUT RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT FCST OVER THE
UPR LKS...THERE WL BE SOME LK BREEZE FORMATION/LOCAL COOLING NEAR LK
SUP.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...WHICH IS AROUND 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AT THE SFC...THE HIGH OVER MUCH OF THE NE
THIRD OF THE NATION WILL KEEP A RIDGE EXTENDED ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
AT 00Z WEDNESDAY THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER A
500MB RIDGE...WITH A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT THE 500MB
LOW TO OPEN UP BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW...AND SETS UP A TROUGH ACROSS
MN ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS UPPER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THE RESULT ACROSS UPPER MI WILL BE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY FROM W AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE W HALF. THE 500MB RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK OVERHEAD
ON FRIDAY...EXTENDING FOR BASICALLY ALL BUT THE PACIFIC NW AND THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES.
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND FEW CLOUDS EACH NIGHT...WENT TOWARD
THE LOWER END OF FCST GUIDANCE FOR MORNING LOWS. AND WITH
PREDOMINANT S WINDS EACH DAY...THE DOWNSLOPE WAS PLAYED UP A BIT
MORE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL SITES BEING
INCREASED 1-4F.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BECOME A BIT MORE TRICKY WX/WIND
WISE...WITH A SFC TROUGH SINKING IN FROM THE N. LIMITED MOISTURE
AGAIN MAY BE LIMITED. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS SOLUTION...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS COMING BACK INTO THE FCST FOR MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD
AS DRY HIGH PRES DOMINATES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014
W WINDS UP TO 25 KTS INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE NCENTRAL LAKE WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT.
WITH THIS RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THRU THE WEEK AND COOL LAKE WATERS/HI STABILITY...EXPECT WINDS
NO HIER THAN 20 KTS INTO THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
335 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING NEAR THE NEB/S DAKOTA BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PUSHING EAST WITH STILL
SOME LINGER STRATUS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. MEANWHILE A SFC
TROUGH/WIND SHIFT IS PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. WINDS
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM INTO
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WARMEST ACROSS THE SW. FAR EASTERN CWA
STILL IN THE 60S DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS. A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NW NEB...INTO N
CENTRAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY IS
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE TROUGH LINE. NEAR TERM
MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAKENING CAP WITH A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS TO
FIRE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE RUC IS MORE ROBUST THAN THE OTHER
MODELS...ALTHOUGH BOTH THE HRRR OR THE NAM DO DEVELOP A LINE. SHEAR
IS MARGINAL...30 KTS OR LESS...AND NARROW BAND OF LESS THAN A 1000
J/KG OF CAPE SO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO...ESPECIALLY FROM HAIL AS FREEZING
LEVELS IS CLOSE TO 13000 FT ASL.
THE ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST WITH ANY STORMS PUSHING EAST OF
THE CWA BY MORNING. MEANWHILE SOME DRY AIR TO FILL IN BEHIND THE
TROUGH. MODELS SUGGESTING A DRY LAYER TO TRAP SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS N CENTRAL TOWARDS MORNING WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME
FOG...AND CONTINUED TO MENTION PATCHY FOG AFTER SHOWERS END.
TOMORROW DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND A NICE WARM UP ACROSS THE BOARD AS RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. MOST AREAS SHOULD PUSH INTO THE 80S...WITH THE FAR
WESTERN ZONES NEARING 90.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST AND A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. THESE HIGHS TO BE AT LEAST 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH THURSDAY TO INCREASE TO 15 TO
25 MPH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MILD EACH NIGHT WITH LOWS ALSO 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM 55 TO 60.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO WYOMING AND MONTANA BY MONDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF
IS ABOUT 12-18 HRS FASTER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAN THE 12Z GFS.
WITH THE 12Z GEM IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...PREFERENCE
LIES WITH THE ECMWF. LATEST SUPERBLEND POPS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 30 POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT LOOK ON
TRACK. BY TUESDAY...H5 HEIGHT DIFFERENCE ARE NEAR 120 METERS
ACROSS IDAHO AND UTAH. THIS IS DUE TO THE GFS WITH ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION AND THE ECMWF FORECASTING AN UPPER TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY
AND UPPER 70S SUNDAY...COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 70S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...EAST OF KVTN. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
THIS HAS A CHANCE TO IMPACT KVTN...AND DID INCLUDE IN THE KVTN
TAF. THE FORECAST DOES REMAIN VFR...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF REDUCTION IN
VSBY CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN STRONGER ISOLD STORMS. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE THE SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KLBF...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AND NO MENTION IN TAF AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW SKIES
CLEAR WITH LOCALLY PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1219 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THAT THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION IS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE IN THE SOUTH THE WESTERN
EDGE IS STILL TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MODELS ARE ALL SIMILAR IN BRINGING THE MAIN WAVE THROUGH TODAY THEN
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IS HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION THERE WILL BE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HRRR AND
THE 4KM WRF BOTH MOVE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS MORNING AND HAVE
VERY LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NAM ALSO
MOVES IT THROUGH BUT HAS A LITTLE PRECIPITATION WITH THE SECONDARY
WAVE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS HAS MORE PRECIPITATION
ALL THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION ALREADY SHOWING UP...EXPECT
THAT THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE
DAY BUT EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FURTHER WEST.
EXPECT THAT THESE WILL GET INTO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABLILIZE THE AREA. FORECAST
MUCAPE OF UP TO 1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GET A
STRONG STORM GOING IN THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING
TO LIFT NORTH EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EXPECTED TO EXTEND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO END DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW EXITS THE REGION...AND
FOR GENERALLY DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
LATE IN THE EXTENDED...EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO CUT OFF ACROSS
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...EVENTUALLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. WHILE INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY MINIMAL...EXPECT AT
LEAST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN SUNDAY
EVENING...AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE WAY THE EXTENDED MODELS HANDLE THIS
CUTOFF LOW...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE NO ISSUE JUSTIFYING THE
SMALL CHANCE POPS THE BLENDED FORECAST PRODUCED THIS MORNING.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...EXPECT SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...AVERAGING GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
FALL. IN ADDITION...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND WITH NO APPRECIABLE DISTURBANCES FORECAST TO CROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...BEFORE EVENTUALLY INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
WEST COAST LOW ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THAT SAID...OTHER THAN THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHICH AT
THIS POINT APPEAR TO BE NON SEVERE...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
WEATHER TO SPEAK OF FOR THE TIME BEING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS TOWARDS SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY BE OBSERVED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A GENERAL CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT HOWEVER...GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST CLOUD
COVER COULD BECOME MORE DENSE...AND IN FACT ONE SET OF GUIDANCE
GOES AS FAR AS TO SUGGEST MVFR TO PERIODIC IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
OBSERVED AT GRI TOWARDS SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT OVERLY HIGH THAT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE REALIZED SO
FOR NOW...WILL PRESENT A CEILING NEAR 4000FT AGL AT GRI...AND GO
WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 2000FT AGL FOR BOTH GRI AND EAR AND LET
FUTURE SHIFTS INCREASE CLOUD DENSITY IF NEED BE. THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A JET STREAK JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY PROMOTE
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT BOTH TAF SITES TONIGHT AND AT
THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO GO AHEAD WITH SUCH
CONDITIONS IN THE TAF 04-13Z. THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK MAY
ALSO PROMOTE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT BOTH TAF SITES
TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACTUALLY BEING REALIZED IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SUSTAINED AT 8-15KTS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD AND ACCOMPANIED BY HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND
21KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
619 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THAT THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION IS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE IN THE SOUTH THE WESTERN
EDGE IS STILL TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MODELS ARE ALL SIMILAR IN BRINGING THE MAIN WAVE THROUGH TODAY THEN
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IS HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION THERE WILL BE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HRRR AND
THE 4KM WRF BOTH MOVE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS MORNING AND HAVE
VERY LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NAM ALSO
MOVES IT THROUGH BUT HAS A LITTLE PRECIPITATION WITH THE SECONDARY
WAVE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS HAS MORE PRECIPITATION
ALL THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION ALREADY SHOWING UP...EXPECT
THAT THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE
DAY BUT EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FURTHER WEST.
EXPECT THAT THESE WILL GET INTO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABLILIZE THE AREA. FORECAST
MUCAPE OF UP TO 1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GET A
STRONG STORM GOING IN THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING
TO LIFT NORTH EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EXPECTED TO EXTEND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO END DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW EXITS THE REGION...AND
FOR GENERALLY DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
LATE IN THE EXTENDED...EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO CUT OFF ACROSS
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...EVENTUALLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. WHILE INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY MINIMAL...EXPECT AT
LEAST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN SUNDAY
EVENING...AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE WAY THE EXTENDED MODELS HANDLE THIS
CUTOFF LOW...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE NO ISSUE JUSTIFYING THE
SMALL CHANCE POPS THE BLENDED FORECAST PRODUCED THIS MORNING.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...EXPECT SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...AVERAGING GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
FALL. IN ADDITION...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND WITH NO APPRECIABLE DISTURBANCES FORECAST TO CROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...BEFORE EVENTUALLY INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
WEST COAST LOW ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THAT SAID...OTHER THAN THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHICH AT
THIS POINT APPEAR TO BE NON SEVERE...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
WEATHER TO SPEAK OF FOR THE TIME BEING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
SHOWERS ARE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT A
BREAK FOR A TIME BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
327 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THAT THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION IS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE IN THE SOUTH THE WESTERN
EDGE IS STILL TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MODELS ARE ALL SIMILAR IN BRINGING THE MAIN WAVE THROUGH TODAY THEN
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IS HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION THERE WILL BE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HRRR AND
THE 4KM WRF BOTH MOVE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS MORNING AND HAVE
VERY LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NAM ALSO
MOVES IT THROUGH BUT HAS A LITTLE PRECIPITATION WITH THE SECONDARY
WAVE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS HAS MORE PRECIPITATION
ALL THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION ALREADY SHOWING UP...EXPECT
THAT THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE
DAY BUT EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FURTHER WEST.
EXPECT THAT THESE WILL GET INTO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABLILIZE THE AREA. FORECAST
MUCAPE OF UP TO 1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GET A
STRONG STORM GOING IN THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING
TO LIFT NORTH EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EXPECTED TO EXTEND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO END DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW EXITS THE REGION...AND
FOR GENERALLY DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
LATE IN THE EXTENDED...EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO CUT OFF ACROSS
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...EVENTUALLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. WHILE INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY MINIMAL...EXPECT AT
LEAST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN SUNDAY
EVENING...AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE WAY THE EXTENDED MODELS HANDLE THIS
CUTOFF LOW...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE NO ISSUE JUSTIFYING THE
SMALL CHANCE POPS THE BLENDED FORECAST PRODUCED THIS MORNING.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...EXPECT SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...AVERAGING GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
FALL. IN ADDITION...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND WITH NO APPRECIABLE DISTURBANCES FORECAST TO CROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...BEFORE EVENTUALLY INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
WEST COAST LOW ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THAT SAID...OTHER THAN THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHICH AT
THIS POINT APPEAR TO BE NON SEVERE...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
WEATHER TO SPEAK OF FOR THE TIME BEING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED MOVING INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT THEM TO CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. BY LATER IN THE MORNING THERE SHOULD BE A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
918 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM SLIDING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL SPREAD LIGHT
RAIN INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, EASTERN NEW YORK,
AND THE SOUTHERN TIER EARLY TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD, WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
915 PM UPDATE...
LATEST HRRR AND 18Z NAM SEEM TO BE ON TRACK AND ADJUSTED PRECIP
GRIDS SLIGHTLY TO SLOW DOWN TIMING A BIT, AND SHOW MORE OF SHARP
GRADIENT ON THE NORTHERN SHIELD OF RAIN. WITH THE THICK HIGH
CIRRUS SHIELD OVER US NOW, WHICH PROVIDED A BEAUTIFUL SUNSET,
OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE NOT FALLING VERY FAST. BECAUSE OF THIS RIVER
VALLEY FOG WILL BE PATCHY AT BEST OVERNIGHT AND MOST LIKELY A LATE
SHOW HOLDING OFF UNTIL 10Z IF NOT LATER. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...
230 PM UPDATE... CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE CYCLONE OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST. IT WILL BE A BIT OF A RACE AGAINST TIME: TDD
VALUES CONTRACTING AHEAD OF INCOMING CLOUDS. OPTED TO ADD PATCHY
FOG TO THE RIVER VALLEYS NORTH OF THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP
ADVANCEMENT THROUGH 12Z, AS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIVER VALLEYS WILL BE RIPE FOR
FOG AHEAD OF THE THICKENING CLOUD COVER.
1135 AM UPDATE...
QUIET DAY. MINOR CHANGES TO DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS, OTHERWISE
NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. CURRENTLY EVALUATING NEW MODEL RUNS
REGARDING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL SLIDE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY
THURSDAY. MODEL TREND LAST 24H HAS BEEN TO PULL THE PRECIPITATION
WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD OF PREVIOUS TRACKS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM AND
ECMWF.
TRENDED TOWARD THE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE LATEST HPC QPF
FIELDS, THOUGH WAS NOT QUITE AS FAR NORTH AS HPC QPF (TO THE SYR/UCA
REGION). OPTED TO LABEL THE LOWER POPS AS RAIN SHOWERS, WHILE
GOING WITH "RAIN" FOR THE HIGHER POP AREAS, AS I DON`T WANT TO
GIVE THE IMPRESSION OF AN ALL-DAY RAIN EVENT IN A 30 POP REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SPREAD EASTWARD EARLY FRIDAY, BRINGING
A BEAUTIFUL WEATHER WEEKEND TO THE ENTIRE REGION. THICKNESS FIELDS
POINT TO MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG RDG OVHD FOR MUCH OF THE XNTDD PD...ALMOST AN OMEGA
BLOCK...WILL KEEP THE FCST AREA GNRLY DRY. SHRT WV WITH A
WEAKENING BACK DOOR SFC FNT PUSHES THRU ON MON...BUT WITH MEAN
UPR RDG PRETTY MUCH STAYING IN PLACE...PCPN SEEMS TO BE LOW CHANCE
AT BEST. COOLER AIR BHD THE SYSTEM WILL LWR TEMPS A BIT...BUT DRY
WX WILL HOLD THRU THE PD.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A THICK SHIELD OF CIRRUS CLOUDS HAS MOVED OVER THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR
OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KELM AND I CONTINUED TO
SHOW THIS WITH A TEMPO IFR GROUP NEAR DAYBREAK. I DID TRIM THE
TEMPO GROUP DOWN A BIT AND FOCUS ON CLOSER TO 12Z AS OVERNIGHT
TEMPS ARE NOT FALLING FAST AT THE MOMENT AND WILL LIMIT FOG
DURATION OVERNIGHT.
AT KAVP A LOWERING DECK OF CLOUDS WILL PRODUCE RAIN NEAR THE
TERMINAL BY 12Z. MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE HERE THURSDAY IN LIGHT RAIN,
WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A COASTAL STORM.
ELSEWHERE A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT KBGM OR KELM BUT GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
THU NGT THROUGH MON...VFR XCPT FOR EARLY MRNG VLY FOG AT KELM.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM/HEDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1029 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
BRING VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES RIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1029 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS OF
1015 AM. DID OPT TO TWEAK WINDS/SKY COVER SLIGHTLY TOWARD CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED. STILL
LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SOUTH...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES NORTH AS LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PIVOTS OUT OF THE
REGION. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE NRN MTNS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH READINGS RANGING IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 60S IN
THE LARGER VALLEYS. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
PRIOR DISCUSSION...
MEAN 500-300MB TROUGH AXIS BISECTS THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH 09Z RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING UPSTREAM 80-90KT JET
ACROSS SERN ONTARIO WITH LEFT EXIT REGION ACROSS FAR NRN NY AND
VT. THE UPSTREAM JET IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL VORT AND AREA
OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS ONTARIO AND OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY FROM KCXX AND CANADIAN
RADARS INDICATES A REGION OF SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER
AT 1030Z...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
HAVE INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION THRU 15Z. HAVE ALSO
INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS FROM
PREVAILING STRATUS DECK. ELSEWHERE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
POINTS SOUTH...ANTICIPATE DRY CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL BE LESS
PREVALENT OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS OF RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES. DESPITE LIMITED SUNSHINE FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-MID 60S THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHERE
TEMPERATURES HOVERED MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND SPRINGFIELD VERMONT WITH MORE INSOLATIONAL HEATING...WITH
HIGHS NEAR 67F. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SW-W AT 5-10 MPH THRU
THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT TUESDAY...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND FINAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DEPARTS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS WILL BEGIN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR...BUT WILL SEE NOCTURNAL
FOG EACH NIGHT IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS. ALSO...MAY SEE SOME
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CUT- OFF UPPER LOW WHICH IS NOW PROGGED BY 00Z GFS/NAM TO MOVE FROM
THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST A BIT FURTHER UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S ON
WEDNESDAY AND LOW-MID 70S FOR THURSDAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLY A BIT
COOLER IN S-CENTRAL VT DEPENDING ON POTENTIAL CLOUDINESS. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS CENTER OF SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS
EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
30S TO MID 40S TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AS
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC RIDGE PREVAILS ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. ALL
MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECTING A
LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS...GIVEN THE DEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE
ACRS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BTWN 13-15C ON SAT/SUNDAY...WHICH SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE
70S...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE
BUMPED TEMPS 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE SUPER-BLEND VALUES. LOWS WL
RANGE IN THE 40S COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO MID 50S CPV/SLV...WITH
LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF HINT AT A BACK DOOR FRNT APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN CWA.
THIS FEATURE WL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE...WITH STRONGEST LLVL CAA
OCCURRING ACRS NORTHERN MAINE...WHERE BEST HGHT FALLS HAPPEN
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF. WL MENTION SCHC/LOW
CHC WORDING IN THE GRIDS ACRS OUR NORTHERN CWA...BUT QPF AMOUNTS
WL BE LIGHT. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN 9-11C...SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE U60S NORTHERN MTNS TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT SLK TODAY...AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW CONTS ACRS OUR
TAF SITES. LATEST IR SATL PIC SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS
UPSTREAM...SOME ANTICIPATED A BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK TODAY BTWN
3500 AND 5000 FEET...WITH SOME CIGS AROUND 2500 FEET AT SLK.
ALSO...CRNT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACRS THE
NORTHERN TIER...BUT OVERALL IMPACT ON TAF SITES WL BE MINIMAL.
GIVEN ALL THE CLOUDS UPSTREAM AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING >90% BTWN
925MB AND 800MB THRU 03Z THIS EVENING...EXPECT PLENTY OF STRATO
CUMULUS CLOUDS...WITH A SLOW CLRING TREND AFT 03Z. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 4 TO 8 KNOTS TODAY WL BECOME TRRN DRIVEN THIS
EVENING WITH SPEEDS < 6 KNOTS. A FEW GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE BTWN 15
AND 20 KNOTS AT MSS TODAY WITH THE ALIGNED SW TO NE FLW OF WIND
ACRS THE SLV.
OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... SFC HIGH PRES WL RESULT
IN CLRING SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDS INTO THURS...WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT MPV/SLK ON WEDS AND THURS
MORNINGS. SOME CLOUDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF OUR TAF
SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT
WINDS
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
720 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
BRING VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES RIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 649 AM EDT TUESDAY...MEAN 500-300MB TROUGH AXIS BISECTS THE NORTH
COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 09Z RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING
UPSTREAM 80-90KT JET ACROSS SERN ONTARIO WITH LEFT EXIT REGION
ACROSS FAR NRN NY AND VT. THE UPSTREAM JET IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID-LEVEL VORT AND AREA OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS ONTARIO AND OVER THE
NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY FROM
KCXX AND CANADIAN RADARS INDICATES A REGION OF SHOWERS JUST NORTH
OF THE INTL BORDER AT 1030Z...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH
MAY PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION THRU 15Z.
HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS FROM PREVAILING STRATUS DECK. ELSEWHERE IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH...ANTICIPATE DRY CONDITIONS.
CLOUDS WILL BE LESS PREVALENT OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS OF RUTLAND
AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. DESPITE LIMITED SUNSHINE FOR NORTHERN
SECTIONS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-MID 60S
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHERE
TEMPERATURES HOVERED MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND SPRINGFIELD VERMONT WITH MORE INSOLATIONAL HEATING...WITH
HIGHS NEAR 67F. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SW-W AT 5-10 MPH THRU
THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT TUESDAY...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND FINAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DEPARTS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS WILL BEGIN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR...BUT WILL SEE NOCTURNAL
FOG EACH NIGHT IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS. ALSO...MAY SEE SOME
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CUT- OFF UPPER LOW WHICH IS NOW PROGGED BY 00Z GFS/NAM TO MOVE FROM
THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST A BIT FURTHER UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S ON
WEDNESDAY AND LOW-MID 70S FOR THURSDAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLY A BIT
COOLER IN S-CENTRAL VT DEPENDING ON POTENTIAL CLOUDINESS. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS CENTER OF SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS
EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
30S TO MID 40S TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AS
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC RIDGE PREVAILS ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. ALL
MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECTING A
LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS...GIVEN THE DEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE
ACRS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BTWN 13-15C ON SAT/SUNDAY...WHICH SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE
70S...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE
BUMPED TEMPS 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE SUPER-BLEND VALUES. LOWS WL
RANGE IN THE 40S COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO MID 50S CPV/SLV...WITH
LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF HINT AT A BACK DOOR FRNT APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN CWA.
THIS FEATURE WL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE...WITH STRONGEST LLVL CAA
OCCURRING ACRS NORTHERN MAINE...WHERE BEST HGHT FALLS HAPPEN
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF. WL MENTION SCHC/LOW
CHC WORDING IN THE GRIDS ACRS OUR NORTHERN CWA...BUT QPF AMOUNTS
WL BE LIGHT. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN 9-11C...SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE U60S NORTHERN MTNS TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT SLK TODAY...AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW CONTS ACRS OUR
TAF SITES. LATEST IR SATL PIC SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS
UPSTREAM...SOME ANTICIPATED A BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK TODAY BTWN
3500 AND 5000 FEET...WITH SOME CIGS AROUND 2500 FEET AT SLK.
ALSO...CRNT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACRS THE
NORTHERN TIER...BUT OVERALL IMPACT ON TAF SITES WL BE MINIMAL.
GIVEN ALL THE CLOUDS UPSTREAM AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING >90% BTWN
925MB AND 800MB THRU 03Z THIS EVENING...EXPECT PLENTY OF STRATO
CUMULUS CLOUDS...WITH A SLOW CLRING TREND AFT 03Z. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 4 TO 8 KNOTS TODAY WL BECOME TRRN DRIVEN THIS
EVENING WITH SPEEDS < 6 KNOTS. A FEW GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE BTWN 15
AND 20 KNOTS AT MSS TODAY WITH THE ALIGNED SW TO NE FLW OF WIND
ACRS THE SLV.
OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... SFC HIGH PRES WL RESULT
IN CLRING SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDS INTO THURS...WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT MPV/SLK ON WEDS AND THURS
MORNINGS. SOME CLOUDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF OUR TAF
SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT
WINDS
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
654 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
BRING VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES RIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 649 AM EDT TUESDAY...MEAN 500-300MB TROUGH AXIS BISECTS THE NORTH
COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 09Z RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING
UPSTREAM 80-90KT JET ACROSS SERN ONTARIO WITH LEFT EXIT REGION
ACROSS FAR NRN NY AND VT. THE UPSTREAM JET IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID-LEVEL VORT AND AREA OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS ONTARIO AND OVER THE
NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY FROM
KCXX AND CANADIAN RADARS INDICATES A REGION OF SHOWERS JUST NORTH
OF THE INTL BORDER AT 1030Z...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH
MAY PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION THRU 15Z.
HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS FROM PREVAILING STRATUS DECK. ELSEWHERE IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH...ANTICIPATE DRY CONDITIONS.
CLOUDS WILL BE LESS PREVALENT OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS OF RUTLAND
AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. DESPITE LIMITED SUNSHINE FOR NORTHERN
SECTIONS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-MID 60S
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHERE
TEMPERATURES HOVERED MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND SPRINGFIELD VERMONT WITH MORE INSOLATIONAL HEATING...WITH
HIGHS NEAR 67F. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SW-W AT 5-10 MPH THRU
THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT TUESDAY...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND FINAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DEPARTS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS WILL BEGIN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR...BUT WILL SEE NOCTURNAL
FOG EACH NIGHT IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS. ALSO...MAY SEE SOME
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CUT- OFF UPPER LOW WHICH IS NOW PROGGED BY 00Z GFS/NAM TO MOVE FROM
THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST A BIT FURTHER UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S ON
WEDNESDAY AND LOW-MID 70S FOR THURSDAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLY A BIT
COOLER IN S-CENTRAL VT DEPENDING ON POTENTIAL CLOUDINESS. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS CENTER OF SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS
EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
30S TO MID 40S TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AS
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC RIDGE PREVAILS ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. ALL
MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECTING A
LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS...GIVEN THE DEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE
ACRS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BTWN 13-15C ON SAT/SUNDAY...WHICH SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE
70S...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE
BUMPED TEMPS 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE SUPER-BLEND VALUES. LOWS WL
RANGE IN THE 40S COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO MID 50S CPV/SLV...WITH
LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF HINT AT A BACK DOOR FRNT APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN CWA.
THIS FEATURE WL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE...WITH STRONGEST LLVL CAA
OCCURRING ACRS NORTHERN MAINE...WHERE BEST HGHT FALLS HAPPEN
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF. WL MENTION SCHC/LOW
CHC WORDING IN THE GRIDS ACRS OUR NORTHERN CWA...BUT QPF AMOUNTS
WL BE LIGHT. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN 9-11C...SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE U60S NORTHERN MTNS TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL CONT AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU 06Z WEDS. SFC HIGH PRES IS LOCATED ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLW ACRS OUR TAF SITES. THIS COMBINED
WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY...HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS ACRS MANY OF OUR TAF SITES. PER LATEST SOUNDING DATA
EXPECT A BROKEN CLOUD DECK TODAY AT 4000 TO 6000 FEET WITH WEST
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SW TO NE ALIGNED
SLV...IMPACTING MSS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WL CLR THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS DEVELOPING AFT 00Z.
OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SFC HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN CLR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDS
INTO THURS...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT
MPV/SLK ON THURS MORNING. SOME CLOUDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF OUR TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT WINDS
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
BRING VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES RIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT TUESDAY...MEAN 500-300MB TROUGH AXIS BISECTS THE NORTH
COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 06Z RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING
UPSTREAM 80-90KT JET ACROSS SERN ONTARIO. THE UPSTREAM JET IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL VORT AND AREA OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS
ONTARIO...WHICH WILL MOVE IN ACROSS NRN NY LATER THIS MORNING PER
PROGGED RUC/NAM RH TRENDS. ALSO DEALING WITH LINGERING STRATUS
LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT WITH CEILINGS AROUND 5 KFT EARLY THIS
AM. ON BALANCE ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...WITH SOME
SUNNY BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT. MAY
SEE A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES FROM THE STRATUS LAYER...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY...BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. DESPITE LIMITED
SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-MID 60S
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHERE
TEMPERATURES HOVERED MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN SW-W AT 5-10 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT TUESDAY...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND FINAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DEPARTS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS WILL BEGIN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR...BUT WILL SEE NOCTURNAL
FOG EACH NIGHT IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS. ALSO...MAY SEE SOME
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CUT- OFF UPPER LOW WHICH IS NOW PROGGED BY 00Z GFS/NAM TO MOVE FROM
THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST A BIT FURTHER UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S ON
WEDNESDAY AND LOW-MID 70S FOR THURSDAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLY A BIT
COOLER IN S-CENTRAL VT DEPENDING ON POTENTIAL CLOUDINESS. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS CENTER OF SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS
EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
30S TO MID 40S TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AS
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC RIDGE PREVAILS ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. ALL
MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECTING A
LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS...GIVEN THE DEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE
ACRS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BTWN 13-15C ON SAT/SUNDAY...WHICH SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE
70S...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE
BUMPED TEMPS 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE SUPER-BLEND VALUES. LOWS WL
RANGE IN THE 40S COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO MID 50S CPV/SLV...WITH
LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF HINT AT A BACK DOOR FRNT APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN CWA.
THIS FEATURE WL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE...WITH STRONGEST LLVL CAA
OCCURRING ACRS NORTHERN MAINE...WHERE BEST HGHT FALLS HAPPEN
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF. WL MENTION SCHC/LOW
CHC WORDING IN THE GRIDS ACRS OUR NORTHERN CWA...BUT QPF AMOUNTS
WL BE LIGHT. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN 9-11C...SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE U60S NORTHERN MTNS TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL CONT AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU 06Z WEDS. SFC HIGH PRES IS LOCATED ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLW ACRS OUR TAF SITES. THIS COMBINED
WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY...HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS ACRS MANY OF OUR TAF SITES. PER LATEST SOUNDING DATA
EXPECT A BROKEN CLOUD DECK TODAY AT 4000 TO 6000 FEET WITH WEST
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SW TO NE ALIGNED
SLV...IMPACTING MSS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WL CLR THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS DEVELOPING AFT 00Z.
OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SFC HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN CLR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDS
INTO THURS...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT
MPV/SLK ON THURS MORNING. SOME CLOUDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF OUR TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT WINDS
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
332 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
BRING VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES RIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT TUESDAY...MEAN 500-300MB TROUGH AXIS BISECTS THE NORTH
COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 06Z RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING
UPSTREAM 80-90KT JET ACROSS SERN ONTARIO. THE UPSTREAM JET IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL VORT AND AREA OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS
ONTARIO...WHICH WILL MOVE IN ACROSS NRN NY LATER THIS MORNING PER
PROGGED RUC/NAM RH TRENDS. ALSO DEALING WITH LINGERING STRATUS
LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT WITH CEILINGS AROUND 5 KFT EARLY THIS
AM. ON BALANCE ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...WITH SOME
SUNNY BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT. MAY
SEE A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES FROM THE STRATUS LAYER...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY...BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. DESPITE LIMITED
SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-MID 60S
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHERE
TEMPERATURES HOVERED MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN SW-W AT 5-10 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT TUESDAY...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND FINAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DEPARTS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS WILL BEGIN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR...BUT WILL SEE NOCTURNAL
FOG EACH NIGHT IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS. ALSO...MAY SEE SOME
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CUT- OFF UPPER LOW WHICH IS NOW PROGGED BY 00Z GFS/NAM TO MOVE FROM
THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST A BIT FURTHER UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S ON
WEDNESDAY AND LOW-MID 70S FOR THURSDAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLY A BIT
COOLER IN S-CENTRAL VT DEPENDING ON POTENTIAL CLOUDINESS. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS CENTER OF SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS
EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
30S TO MID 40S TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. MAIN
ACTION TAKEN ON THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS WAS TO WIDEN THE DIURNAL
SWINGS...BUMPING UP DAYTIME TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AND LOWERING
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S SATURDAY & SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MAX
TEMP ESPECIALLY LOW NEXT MONDAY WHEN IT TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
TOO MUCH. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LOWER
HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE HAD UPPER 60S WHILE
850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT LOWER 70S. LIKEWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO
BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY RH WILL LET
TEMPS RADIATE COOLER. NO POPS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL CONT AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU 06Z WEDS. SFC HIGH PRES IS LOCATED ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLW ACRS OUR TAF SITES. THIS COMBINED
WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY...HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS ACRS MANY OF OUR TAF SITES. PER LATEST SOUNDING DATA
EXPECT A BROKEN CLOUD DECK TODAY AT 4000 TO 6000 FEET WITH WEST
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SW TO NE ALIGNED
SLV...IMPACTING MSS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WL CLR THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS DEVELOPING AFT 00Z.
OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SFC HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN CLR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDS
INTO THURS...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT
MPV/SLK ON THURS MORNING. SOME CLOUDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF OUR TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT WINDS
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...TABER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
949 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
A LITTLE PATCH OF STRATUS HAS MOVED THROUGH KJMS BUT BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS EXPECT THIS TO BE TRANSITORY. BUT AM CONCERNED
THE FOG WILL START EARLIER THERE (STUTSMAN/FOSTER) COUNTIES SO
ADDED FOG THERE. THEN EXPANDED NORTH AND SOUTH FROM THERE AFTER
05Z. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS OK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE AXIS
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOW CLOUDS HAVE NEARLY CLEARED OUT OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. WILL ADD SOME SKY COVER FOR
THE HIGH CLOUDS AS THEY APPEAR SOMEWHAT OPAQUE. HRRR MODEL HITS
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PRETTY GOOD WITH FOG AFTER 06Z SO RAISED
THE FOG THERE FROM PATCHY TO AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING WARMTH ON THURSDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.
STRATUS HAS CLEARED ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WHICH
IS EXPECTED BY 21-22 UTC. THE 15 UTC SREF CEILING PROBABILITIES
AND 19 UTC RAP LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS SUGGEST THE STRATUS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS EAST TONIGHT. DID ADD A
PATCHY FOG MENTION TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WHERE
RESIDUAL MID 50S DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN.
FOR THURSDAY...ANOMALOUS 850 MB TEMPERATURES 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ARE FORECAST UNDER THE BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. THIS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURES IN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
LOCATION.........FORECAST HIGH........RECORD
BISMARCK.............90...............92 IN 1902
MINOT................89...............93 IN 1938
WILLISTON............93...............89 IN 2011
DICKINSON............91...............89 IN 1990
JAMESTOWN............85...............95 IN 1938
FOLLOWED THE WARMER EDGE OF THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE WHICH HAS
VERIFIED BEST THIS MONTH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
THE TREND CONTINUES...WARM AND DRY THROUGH LATE WEEKEND.
THE RIDGE...CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN MONTANA...WILL NOSE INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TOMORROW AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER...POTENTIALLY
RECORD BREAKING...TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OUT WEST. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ISN`T PROGGED TO SWING
THROUGH UNTIL SOMETIME TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST
TO SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE
MAIN WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE WAVERED BACK AND FORTH
OVER THE PREVIOUS RUNS. THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE LOW TRACK...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE AT
LEAST MOST OF THE AREA HAS A GOOD CHANCE AT SEEING SOME RAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
COMMS ISSUE IMPACTING NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA RESULTING IN LACK OF
METARS FROM KISN SINCE 2052. BELIEVE THE ASOS CONTINUES TO OPERATE
WITH VHF COMMS. WILL CONTINUE THE TAF SERVICE BUT SUSPEND
AMENDMENTS. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL MOIST AIR WILL RESULT IN LOW
IFR AT KJMS. CLR OR SCT HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR KISN-KDIK-KBIS-KMOT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
707 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE AXIS
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOW CLOUDS HAVE NEARLY CLEARED OUT OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. WILL ADD SOME SKY COVER FOR
THE HIGH CLOUDS AS THEY APPEAR SOMEWHAT OPAQUE. HRRR MODEL HITS
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PRETTY GOOD WITH FOG AFTER 06Z SO RAISED
THE FOG THERE FROM PATCHY TO AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING WARMTH ON THURSDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.
STRATUS HAS CLEARED ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WHICH
IS EXPECTED BY 21-22 UTC. THE 15 UTC SREF CEILING PROBABILITIES
AND 19 UTC RAP LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS SUGGEST THE STRATUS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS EAST TONIGHT. DID ADD A
PATCHY FOG MENTION TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WHERE
RESIDUAL MID 50S DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN.
FOR THURSDAY...ANOMALOUS 850 MB TEMPERATURES 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ARE FORECAST UNDER THE BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. THIS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURES IN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
LOCATION.........FORECAST HIGH........RECORD
BISMARCK.............90...............92 IN 1902
MINOT................89...............93 IN 1938
WILLISTON............93...............89 IN 2011
DICKINSON............91...............89 IN 1990
JAMESTOWN............85...............95 IN 1938
FOLLOWED THE WARMER EDGE OF THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE WHICH HAS
VERIFIED BEST THIS MONTH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
THE TREND CONTINUES...WARM AND DRY THROUGH LATE WEEKEND.
THE RIDGE...CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN MONTANA...WILL NOSE INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TOMORROW AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER...POTENTIALLY
RECORD BREAKING...TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OUT WEST. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ISN`T PROGGED TO SWING
THROUGH UNTIL SOMETIME TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST
TO SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE
MAIN WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE WAVERED BACK AND FORTH
OVER THE PREVIOUS RUNS. THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE LOW TRACK...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE AT
LEAST MOST OF THE AREA HAS A GOOD CHANCE AT SEEING SOME RAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
BROAD AND DRY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MONTANA WITH A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA.
STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE BURNED OFF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BUT A LIGHT
SOUTHEAST TO EAST WIND SHOULD HOLD THE MOISTURE IN THE VALLEY.
EXPECT FOG FORMATION AFTER 05Z TONIGHT. BEGAN WITH 2SM BR AT KJMS
AFTER 05Z BUT COULD BECOME LOW IFR. WILL MONITOR. VFR ELSEWHERE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
307 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
STRATUS IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND A MILD
WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
WILL FOLLOW THE 18 UTC RAP FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH
TONIGHT...WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT STRATUS FIELD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 1930 UTC.
EXPECT THE CURRENT STRATUS FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A 925-850 MB
MOISTURE AXIS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING...SLOWLY ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DID ADD A PATCHY FOG MENTION ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK WHERE WINDS WILL BE WEAKEST
TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...A WARM WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY...TO THE UPPER 80S FAR WEST. THE ONE CAVEAT IN THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS IF THE STRATUS DOES LINGER A BIT LONGER
THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WHICH COULD
HOLD HIGHS CLOSER TO THE LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
WARM AND DRY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THROUGH THE WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WED-FRI. THIS WILL
BE THE WARMEST WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES WE`VE SEEN SINCE EARLY
AUGUST.
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...
THE MODELS (12 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM) CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE
ALSO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER THAT MOST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY. HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN
ENTER THE FORECAST MONDAY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
MVFR STRATUS AT KJMS AND KBIS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO NEAR IFR. THIS STRATUS MAY
BRUSH KMOT THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AT
KMOT/KBIS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...DID NOT ADD
TO THE TAFS AT THIS TIMES. STRATUS CLEARS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
710 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND IT WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST MADE MINOR UPDATES TO THE SKY COVER FOR NW PA. THE HRRR MODEL
IS TRYING TO INDICATE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING
OVER NE OH THIS MORNING. THIS DOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE AS THE AIR
MASS IS VERY DRY. CONTINUING WITH THE SUNNY FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA. SOME VERY SPOTTY DENSE FOG
MAY OCCUR THROUGH 9 AM MAINLY IN THE WAYNE...HOLMES AND STARK
COUNTY AREAS. THE THREAT OF PATCHY FROST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK MAINLY IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL START OFF WESTERLY AND WITH THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE NEAR 10C...SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE. THEY SHOULD BE
SCATTERED AND NONE THE LESS MOSTLY SUNNY. ELSEWHERE THE AIRMASS
WILL BE DRY AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SUNNY. FORECAST
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER FOR THIS PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND MOSTLY SUNNY
DAYS. SOME CIRRUS COULD BE AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BECAUSE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST. THE CIRRUS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY THIN. SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WENT TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS
AND USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND LOCAL SCHEMES FOR THE LOWS.
TONIGHT THE LOWS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH THAT WE WILL NOT HAVE TO
WORRY ABOUT FROST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED WITH LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...AND REMAINING NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SECONDARY HIGH WILL DROP OUT OF
CANADA MONDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY. ALL TOLD
EXTENDED WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...DRY AND WARM...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ASIDE FROM PATCHY MVFR BR FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS MORNING VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LAKE WILL PROVIDE QUIET CONDITIONS
ON THE LAKE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST AND MOVE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY...BUT A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN LAKES INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
629 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND IT WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST MADE MINOR UPDATES TO THE SKY COVER FOR NW PA. THE HRRR MODEL
IS TRYING TO INDICATE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING
OVER NE OH THIS MORNING. THIS DOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE AS THE AIR
MASS IS VERY DRY. CONTINUING WITH THE SUNNY FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA. SOME VERY SPOTTY DENSE FOG
MAY OCCUR THROUGH 9 AM MAINLY IN THE WAYNE...HOLMES AND STARK
COUNTY AREAS. THE THREAT OF PATCHY FROST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK MAINLY IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL START OFF WESTERLY AND WITH THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE NEAR 10C...SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE. THEY SHOULD BE
SCATTERED AND NONE THE LESS MOSTLY SUNNY. ELSEWHERE THE AIRMASS
WILL BE DRY AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SUNNY. FORECAST
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER FOR THIS PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND MOSTLY SUNNY
DAYS. SOME CIRRUS COULD BE AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BECAUSE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST. THE CIRRUS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY THIN. SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WENT TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS
AND USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND LOCAL SCHEMES FOR THE LOWS.
TONIGHT THE LOWS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH THAT WE WILL NOT HAVE TO
WORRY ABOUT FROST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED WITH LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...AND REMAINING NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SECONDARY HIGH WILL DROP OUT OF
CANADA MONDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY. ALL TOLD
EXTENDED WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...DRY AND WARM...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA.
.OUTLOOK...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LAKE WILL PROVIDE QUIET CONDITIONS
ON THE LAKE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST AND MOVE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY...BUT A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN LAKES INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1215 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
AS OF 4 AM SHOWERS STILL MAINLY CONFINED TO AROUND THE MISSOURI
RIVER...WITH DRY AIR TO THE NORTHEAST SLOWING ITS MOVEMENT. FORCING
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS MOVES EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET STILL SUPPORTS A PERIOD OF DEEP
LIFT OVER THE AREA...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DID SLOW DOWN TIMING
OF THE NORTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THESE SHOWERS GIVEN CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...WITH THE HRRR SEEMING CLOSEST TO REALITY. GREATEST COVERAGE
AND HIGHEST INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90 CLOSER TO THE BETTER LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BUT STILL EXPECT
SHOWERS TO EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE WHOLE AREA. THE SHOWER THREAT
WILL DECREASE AS THE FORCING PUSHES EAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT MOVE IN. THUS BY MID AFTERNOON BEST
SHOWER THREAT WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 29...BUT WOULD EXPECT THESE
TO BE EVEN LIGHTER GIVEN THE DRYER AMBIENT AIRMASS.
NOT REALLY ANY INSTABILITY OUT THERE...AS VERIFIED BY THE LACK OF
LIGHTNING IN THE CURRENT ACTIVITY. NOT MUCH CHANGES WITH THE SYSTEM
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SO NOT LIKING THUNDER CHANCES AND REMOVED
FROM THE FORECAST. ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY SEEMS TO DEVELOP BEHIND
THE BEST FORCING IN A SUBSIDENT AND CAPPED REGIME. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD STICK AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY...AND THUS TRENDED HIGHS DOWN
TOWARDS THE COOLER RAW GUIDANCE VALUES. WILL BE QUITE BREEZY AS WELL
WITH A 900MB JET AROUND 40 KTS MOVING OVERHEAD. POOR MIXING WILL
LIMIT HOW MUCH OF THIS CAN REACH THE SURFACE...BUT WOULD STILL
EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH TODAY.
ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS PUSHES ACROSS. THUS SEEMS LIKELY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THAT FEATURE...SO INCREASED POPS. WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS GREATER TONIGHT. THUS
ACTUALLY THINK THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL END UP GREATER...SO
WHILE NOTHING WILL BE SEVERE...SHOULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY TONIGHT. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD AGAIN BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 WHERE BETTER SUPPORT IS...BUT STILL A CHANCE FURTHER
NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRUDGE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING THE REMAINING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH AROUND MID AFTERNOON. THE LOW BECOMES WASHED OUT UNDER
THE EXPANDING LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE. WITH DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
...THE PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS WILL BEGIN CLEARING IN THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS...MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL RESULT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 80.
ELSEWHERE...THE LOW TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
MILD...PLEASANT AND DRY EARLY FALL WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WITH ABUNDANT SUNDAY AND
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS DURING THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN THE 70S. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS IN THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINNING ON
MONDAY AND WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. MODELS SHOWING SOME DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...SO WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCE
MENTION ON MONDAY IMPROVING TO CHANCES AT NIGHT AREA-WIDE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IN AREAS
FROM THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND EASTWARD...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN
THE LATER AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE LINGERING STRATUS THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...AFFECTING MAINLY KSUX AFTER 09Z.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
609 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
AS OF 4 AM SHOWERS STILL MAINLY CONFINED TO AROUND THE MISSOURI
RIVER...WITH DRY AIR TO THE NORTHEAST SLOWING ITS MOVEMENT. FORCING
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS MOVES EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET STILL SUPPORTS A PERIOD OF DEEP
LIFT OVER THE AREA...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DID SLOW DOWN TIMING
OF THE NORTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THESE SHOWERS GIVEN CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...WITH THE HRRR SEEMING CLOSEST TO REALITY. GREATEST COVERAGE
AND HIGHEST INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90 CLOSER TO THE BETTER LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BUT STILL EXPECT
SHOWERS TO EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE WHOLE AREA. THE SHOWER THREAT
WILL DECREASE AS THE FORCING PUSHES EAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT MOVE IN. THUS BY MID AFTERNOON BEST
SHOWER THREAT WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 29...BUT WOULD EXPECT THESE
TO BE EVEN LIGHTER GIVEN THE DRYER AMBIENT AIRMASS.
NOT REALLY ANY INSTABILITY OUT THERE...AS VERIFIED BY THE LACK OF
LIGHTNING IN THE CURRENT ACTIVITY. NOT MUCH CHANGES WITH THE SYSTEM
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SO NOT LIKING THUNDER CHANCES AND REMOVED
FROM THE FORECAST. ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY SEEMS TO DEVELOP BEHIND
THE BEST FORCING IN A SUBSIDENT AND CAPPED REGIME. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD STICK AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY...AND THUS TRENDED HIGHS DOWN
TOWARDS THE COOLER RAW GUIDANCE VALUES. WILL BE QUITE BREEZY AS WELL
WITH A 900MB JET AROUND 40 KTS MOVING OVERHEAD. POOR MIXING WILL
LIMIT HOW MUCH OF THIS CAN REACH THE SURFACE...BUT WOULD STILL
EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH TODAY.
ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS PUSHES ACROSS. THUS SEEMS LIKELY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THAT FEATURE...SO INCREASED POPS. WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS GREATER TONIGHT. THUS
ACTUALLY THINK THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL END UP GREATER...SO
WHILE NOTHING WILL BE SEVERE...SHOULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY TONIGHT. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD AGAIN BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 WHERE BETTER SUPPORT IS...BUT STILL A CHANCE FURTHER
NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRUDGE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING THE REMAINING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH AROUND MID AFTERNOON. THE LOW BECOMES WASHED OUT UNDER
THE EXPANDING LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE. WITH DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
...THE PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS WILL BEGIN CLEARING IN THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS...MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL RESULT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 80.
ELSEWHERE...THE LOW TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
MILD...PLEASANT AND DRY EARLY FALL WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WITH ABUNDANT SUNDAY AND
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS DURING THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN THE 70S. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS IN THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINNING ON
MONDAY AND WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. MODELS SHOWING SOME DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...SO WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCE
MENTION ON MONDAY IMPROVING TO CHANCES AT NIGHT AREA-WIDE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. GENERALLY SHOULD STAY VFR IN THE RAIN...ALTHOUGH
PERIODIC VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE SOME MVFR STRATUS FORM
THIS MORNING...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 29. THUS KHON HAS THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL...BUT THINK SOME LOWER CIGS MAY MOVE INTO KFSD
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. THINGS
SHOULD BECOME VFR AGAIN THIS EVENING. WILL BE BREEZY TODAY AS
WELL...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KTS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...BUT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. SOME SIGNS WE
COULD SEE FOG AND OR LOW STRATUS FORM AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO
MENTION...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
401 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
AS OF 4 AM SHOWERS STILL MAINLY CONFINED TO AROUND THE MISSOURI
RIVER...WITH DRY AIR TO THE NORTHEAST SLOWING ITS MOVEMENT. FORCING
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS MOVES EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET STILL SUPPORTS A PERIOD OF DEEP
LIFT OVER THE AREA...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DID SLOW DOWN TIMING
OF THE NORTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THESE SHOWERS GIVEN CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...WITH THE HRRR SEEMING CLOSEST TO REALITY. GREATEST COVERAGE
AND HIGHEST INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90 CLOSER TO THE BETTER LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BUT STILL EXPECT
SHOWERS TO EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE WHOLE AREA. THE SHOWER THREAT
WILL DECREASE AS THE FORCING PUSHES EAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT MOVE IN. THUS BY MID AFTERNOON BEST
SHOWER THREAT WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 29...BUT WOULD EXPECT THESE
TO BE EVEN LIGHTER GIVEN THE DRYER AMBIENT AIRMASS.
NOT REALLY ANY INSTABILITY OUT THERE...AS VERIFIED BY THE LACK OF
LIGHTNING IN THE CURRENT ACTIVITY. NOT MUCH CHANGES WITH THE SYSTEM
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SO NOT LIKING THUNDER CHANCES AND REMOVED
FROM THE FORECAST. ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY SEEMS TO DEVELOP BEHIND
THE BEST FORCING IN A SUBSIDENT AND CAPPED REGIME. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD STICK AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY...AND THUS TRENDED HIGHS DOWN
TOWARDS THE COOLER RAW GUIDANCE VALUES. WILL BE QUITE BREEZY AS WELL
WITH A 900MB JET AROUND 40 KTS MOVING OVERHEAD. POOR MIXING WILL
LIMIT HOW MUCH OF THIS CAN REACH THE SURFACE...BUT WOULD STILL
EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH TODAY.
ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS PUSHES ACROSS. THUS SEEMS LIKELY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THAT FEATURE...SO INCREASED POPS. WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS GREATER TONIGHT. THUS
ACTUALLY THINK THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL END UP GREATER...SO
WHILE NOTHING WILL BE SEVERE...SHOULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY TONIGHT. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD AGAIN BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 WHERE BETTER SUPPORT IS...BUT STILL A CHANCE FURTHER
NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRUDGE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING THE REMAINING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH AROUND MID AFTERNOON. THE LOW BECOMES WASHED OUT UNDER
THE EXPANDING LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE. WITH DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
...THE PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS WILL BEGIN CLEARING IN THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS...MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL RESULT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 80.
ELSEWHERE...THE LOW TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
MILD...PLEASANT AND DRY EARLY FALL WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WITH ABUNDANT SUNDAY AND
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS DURING THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN THE 70S. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS IN THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINNING ON
MONDAY AND WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. MODELS SHOWING SOME DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...SO WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCE
MENTION ON MONDAY IMPROVING TO CHANCES AT NIGHT AREA-WIDE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014
SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS SPREADING FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY...BUT MAY HAVE AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE
OR TWO. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MVFR CEILINGS QUICKLY DEVELOPING
TUESDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 AND LINGERING THROUGH THE
DAY LIGHT HOURS. HAVE WRITTEN SOME PESSIMISTIC TAFS WITH LOWER
CEILINGS...BUT STILL DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY TO BE
MORE THAN TEMPORARY AT BEST. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
IN LATE AFTERNOON OR BEYOND AS COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE
SCATTERED.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1239 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
.AVIATION...
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE IS ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
-TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF EITHER TERMINAL FROM 20 UTC TO 03
UTC...WHICH COULD BRING SHORT DURATION REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND
CEILINGS ALONG WITH LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. ALSO...SOME PATCHY GROUND
FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY WED MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/
AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS ATTM. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK /10 PCT/ OF MVFR BR AT EITHER TERMINAL THROUGH 15Z. THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING A 20 PCT OF TSRA WILL EXIST AT BOTH KLBB AND
KCDS. THERE ALSO EXIST SOME RISK OF FG WEDNESDAY MORNING TOWARD SUNRISE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/
SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED NEAR 32N115W WILL BECOME ELONGATED IN A
NE/SW ORIENTATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE
DAKOTA OPENS LEAVING A TROUGH AXIS BACK TOWARD WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL
HELP OVERSPREAD SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AS EVIDENCED BY
Q-VECTOR ANALYSIS THROUGH 12Z WED.
AT THE SURFACE...MOIST ADVECTION FROM OUR SOUTH BRINGS JUICY NEAR
SFC AIR BACK INTO OUR AREA AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING. THIS IS BEST
VISUALIZED IN THE HRRR BUT ALSO EVIDENT IN THE NAM. GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF STANDING WATER TO OUR SOUTH...SUSPECT THAT THE DEWPOINTS
MAY BE A BIT HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED. THIS TYPE OF WEAKLY
FORCED SCENARIO USUALLY IS HANDLED BEST BY EXAMINING THE BEST SFC
THETA-E FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS A RATHER BROAD AREA COVERING
ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF PARMER COUNTY
AND THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A LONG/SKINNY
CAPE SITUATION ABOVE ABOUT 750MB. BEST SURFACE DIVERGENCE FIELDS
LOOK TO REMAIN S OF THE AREA FROM NEAR ASPERMONT BACK TOWARD
ODESSA. ALL IN ALL...NOT JUST A WHOLE LOT ACROSS OUR AREA TO
IDENTIFY PREFERRED AREAS OF CONVECTION OUTSIDE THE AFOREMENTIONED
THETA-E MAX. TURNING TO THE MODEL PARAMETRIZED PRECIPITATION
ESTIMATES...NOT MUCH DIFFERENT POPS OUT. WILL THEREFORE MAKE
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC TO CHC WITH BETTER POPS SOUTH CENTRAL THENCE
DIMINISHING TOWARD THE E/W/N. PWAT WILL BE A FAIR BIT ABOVE NORMAL
SO SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. FCST INSTABILITY WILL PERMIT
A FEW STRONG PULSE STORMS WITH 1-2 KJ/KG ACROSS THE SOUTH. 1-6KM
SHEAR IS BEST ACROSS THE NORTH. SUSPECT THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING
SOME MODERATE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE NEAR THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT AND SO WILL HIGHLIGHT THAT POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. THE
BULK OF ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OFF IN THE EVENING THOUGH SOME
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE
LAST TWO WEEKS.
LONG TERM...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A MESSY SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. UPPER LOW MOVING ONTO THE CENTRAL-NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WILL ELONGATE AND STRETCH BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AS IT
APPROACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...POTENTIALLY ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW SOMEWHERE IN
VICINITY OF THE PERMIAN BASIN. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY KEEP AN UPPER
RIDGE DISPLACED TO OUR WEST AS IT STRETCHES FROM BAJA INTO MANITOBA.
MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE ALONG WITH THIS FORCING WILL KEEP STORM
CHANCES IN PLAY FOR ALL LOCALES WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE AS CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG. CHANCES
BEGIN TO SHIFT WEST THURSDAY WITH DRY AIR INTRUDING FROM THE EAST.
THIS WILL SHUTDOWN PROSPECTS FOR ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
AS PWATS TAKE A NOTICEABLE PLUMMET TO WELL BELOW ONE INCH.
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OFFSHORE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS CALIFORNIA INTO
THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE WEEKEND...SHOVING THE CUTOFF LOW/TROUGHINESS
EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. BACKING FLOW WILL OCCUR WITH THIS
TRANSITION OF UPPER FEATURES...BUT MOISTURE RECOVERY AND TIMING
REMAIN A LARGE UNCERTAINTY BY SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN
CHANCES SILENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD SLIDE
OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE
PREVIOUSLY RESIDING LOW. DEPENDING ON TIMING AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST...MAY SEE
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURN ALOFT WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS...BUT SEE NOWHERE CLOSE TO A CLEAR ENOUGH SIGNAL TO INSERT
MENTIONABLE POPS AT THIS TIME.
MOIST SOIL AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S/LOW 80S ON THE CAPROCK WITH 80S IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S/60S WEST OF THE ESCARPMENT AND 60S EAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 59 80 58 78 57 / 10 30 30 20 20
TULIA 61 81 59 80 58 / 20 30 30 20 20
PLAINVIEW 62 80 59 79 57 / 20 30 30 20 10
LEVELLAND 62 80 60 78 58 / 20 30 30 20 10
LUBBOCK 63 80 60 79 58 / 20 30 30 20 10
DENVER CITY 61 80 61 77 58 / 20 30 30 20 10
BROWNFIELD 62 80 61 79 58 / 20 30 20 20 10
CHILDRESS 66 85 62 84 61 / 20 20 20 20 10
SPUR 64 83 61 81 59 / 20 30 20 20 10
ASPERMONT 65 85 62 83 61 / 20 20 20 20 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1237 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE COMING DOWN ON NW
FLOW ALOFT WHILE A GOOD HUMIDITY GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY TO JUST WEST OF SAT IS ALLOWING SOME CU TO FORM EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR IS DOMINATING THE AUS AREA WHERE SAT/SSF ARE
RIGHT ON THE CUSP OF THE HIGHER HUMIDITIES. HAVE ADDED SOME CU
INTO THE FORECAST FOR SAT/SSF FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DONE THE SAME
OUT IN DRT AS THE MOISTURE PUSHES WEST ON EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS. WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE OUT WEST BY WED MORNING...POSSIBLE
MVFR AT DRT EARLY TOMORROW. LEFT A SCT GROUP IN THERE FOR NOW DUE
TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN GETTING ANY WIDESPREAD MVFR. SAT/SSF/AUS
SHOULD SEE A REPEAT OF VFR ON WEDNESDAY. LIGHT EAST AND NE WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT SE OUT IN DRT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/
UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO SPREAD THE MENTION OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF VAL
VERDE COUNTY INTO THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE LATEST HI-
RES RUC ALONG WITH THE NMM AND ARW MODELS ALL SHOW CONVECTION
FIRING IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED REGION THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LATEST WINDS AND DEW POINTS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/
AVIATION...
NO CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS DRY AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.
MVFR CIGS AT KSSF AND POSSIBLY KSAT FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING
THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE E/NE 5-10 KNOTS. KDRT WILL SEE E/SE
WINDS 5-10 KNOTS. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING IMPACTS AT KDRT AND
WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE KDRT FORECAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MOIST AIR CONVERGENCE IN THE 925-850MB LAYER HAS RESULTED IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN
FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP THESE SHOWERS ISOLATED AND SOUTH OF
U.S. 90 THROUGH THE MORNING. THE POOLED MOIST AIR WILL BE ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING IS
REACHED...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THAT AREA. HOWEVER...WE EXPECT THESE TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND
SHORT-LIVED...AS THEY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE WESTWARD INTO MEXICO.
THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY TODAY...AND ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN FAIR TO POOR AGREEMENT WITH
THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE CUT-OFF LOW PROJECTED TO BE OVER
TEXAS BY FRIDAY...THEN EVENTUALLY EJECTING OUT INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES ACROSS
THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND. DESPITE THE VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...ALL
GENERALLY POINT TOWARD MINIMAL POPS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS FRIDAY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF U.S. 90...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE AND MANY AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY. THERE APPEAR TO BE INCREASING PROSPECTS FOR A
COLD FRONT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AND BEYOND THE SEVEN-DAY FORECAST TO DISCUSS MORE
THAN THIS BRIEF MENTION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 87 63 85 63 85 / - - - - 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 87 60 85 60 85 / - - - - 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 88 63 87 63 88 / - - - - 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 85 62 86 61 86 / - - - - 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 89 70 86 66 84 / 20 20 - - 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 85 62 86 61 86 / - - - - 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 92 65 90 64 90 / 10 10 - - 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 87 63 85 62 85 / - - - - 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 86 62 86 64 87 / - - - - 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 89 66 87 65 87 / - - - - 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 90 66 88 65 87 / - - - - 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1019 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
.UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO SPREAD THE MENTION OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF VAL
VERDE COUNTY INTO THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE LATEST HI-
RES RUC ALONG WITH THE NMM AND ARW MODELS ALL SHOW CONVECTION
FIRING IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED REGION THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LATEST WINDS AND DEW POINTS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/
AVIATION...
NO CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS DRY AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.
MVFR CIGS AT KSSF AND POSSIBLY KSAT FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING
THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE E/NE 5-10 KNOTS. KDRT WILL SEE E/SE
WINDS 5-10 KNOTS. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING IMPACTS AT KDRT AND
WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE KDRT FORECAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MOIST AIR CONVERGENCE IN THE 925-850MB LAYER HAS RESULTED IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN
FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP THESE SHOWERS ISOLATED AND SOUTH OF
U.S. 90 THROUGH THE MORNING. THE POOLED MOIST AIR WILL BE ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING IS
REACHED...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THAT AREA. HOWEVER...WE EXPECT THESE TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND
SHORT-LIVED...AS THEY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE WESTWARD INTO MEXICO.
THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY TODAY...AND ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN FAIR TO POOR AGREEMENT WITH
THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE CUT-OFF LOW PROJECTED TO BE OVER
TEXAS BY FRIDAY...THEN EVENTUALLY EJECTING OUT INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES ACROSS
THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND. DESPITE THE VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...ALL
GENERALLY POINT TOWARD MINIMAL POPS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS FRIDAY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF U.S. 90...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE AND MANY AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY. THERE APPEAR TO BE INCREASING PROSPECTS FOR A
COLD FRONT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AND BEYOND THE SEVEN-DAY FORECAST TO DISCUSS MORE
THAN THIS BRIEF MENTION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 87 63 85 63 85 / - - - - 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 87 60 85 60 85 / - - - - 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 88 63 87 63 88 / - - - - 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 85 62 86 61 86 / - - - - 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 89 70 86 66 84 / 20 - - - 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 85 62 86 61 86 / - - - - 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 92 65 90 64 90 / 10 10 - - 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 87 63 85 62 85 / - - - - 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 86 62 86 64 87 / - - - - 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 89 66 87 65 87 / - - - - 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 90 66 88 65 87 / - - - - 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...99
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...09
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
610 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS ATTM. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK /10 PCT/ OF MVFR BR AT EITHER TERMINAL THROUGH 15Z. THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING A 20 PCT OF TSRA WILL EXIST AT BOTH KLBB AND
KCDS. THERE ALSO EXIST SOME RISK OF FG WEDNESDAY MORNING TOWARD SUNRISE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/
SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED NEAR 32N115W WILL BECOME ELONGATED IN A
NE/SW ORIENTATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE
DAKOTA OPENS LEAVING A TROUGH AXIS BACK TOWARD WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL
HELP OVERSPREAD SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AS EVIDENCED BY
Q-VECTOR ANALYSIS THROUGH 12Z WED.
AT THE SURFACE...MOIST ADVECTION FROM OUR SOUTH BRINGS JUICY NEAR
SFC AIR BACK INTO OUR AREA AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING. THIS IS BEST
VISUALIZED IN THE HRRR BUT ALSO EVIDENT IN THE NAM. GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF STANDING WATER TO OUR SOUTH...SUSPECT THAT THE DEWPOINTS
MAY BE A BIT HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED. THIS TYPE OF WEAKLY
FORCED SCENARIO USUALLY IS HANDLED BEST BY EXAMINING THE BEST SFC
THETA-E FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS A RATHER BROAD AREA COVERING
ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF PARMER COUNTY
AND THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A LONG/SKINNY
CAPE SITUATION ABOVE ABOUT 750MB. BEST SURFACE DIVERGENCE FIELDS
LOOK TO REMAIN S OF THE AREA FROM NEAR ASPERMONT BACK TOWARD
ODESSA. ALL IN ALL...NOT JUST A WHOLE LOT ACROSS OUR AREA TO
IDENTIFY PREFERRED AREAS OF CONVECTION OUTSIDE THE AFOREMENTIONED
THETA-E MAX. TURNING TO THE MODEL PARAMETRIZED PRECIPITATION
ESTIMATES...NOT MUCH DIFFERENT POPS OUT. WILL THEREFORE MAKE
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC TO CHC WITH BETTER POPS SOUTH CENTRAL THENCE
DIMINISHING TOWARD THE E/W/N. PWAT WILL BE A FAIR BIT ABOVE NORMAL
SO SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. FCST INSTABILITY WILL PERMIT
A FEW STRONG PULSE STORMS WITH 1-2 KJ/KG ACROSS THE SOUTH. 1-6KM
SHEAR IS BEST ACROSS THE NORTH. SUSPECT THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING
SOME MODERATE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE NEAR THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT AND SO WILL HIGHLIGHT THAT POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. THE
BULK OF ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OFF IN THE EVENING THOUGH SOME
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE
LAST TWO WEEKS.
LONG TERM...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A MESSY SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. UPPER LOW MOVING ONTO THE CENTRAL-NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WILL ELONGATE AND STRETCH BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AS IT
APPROACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...POTENTIALLY ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW SOMEWHERE IN
VICINITY OF THE PERMIAN BASIN. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY KEEP AN UPPER
RIDGE DISPLACED TO OUR WEST AS IT STRETCHES FROM BAJA INTO MANITOBA.
MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE ALONG WITH THIS FORCING WILL KEEP STORM
CHANCES IN PLAY FOR ALL LOCALES WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE AS CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG. CHANCES
BEGIN TO SHIFT WEST THURSDAY WITH DRY AIR INTRUDING FROM THE EAST.
THIS WILL SHUTDOWN PROSPECTS FOR ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
AS PWATS TAKE A NOTICEABLE PLUMMET TO WELL BELOW ONE INCH.
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OFFSHORE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS CALIFORNIA INTO
THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE WEEKEND...SHOVING THE CUTOFF LOW/TROUGHINESS
EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. BACKING FLOW WILL OCCUR WITH THIS
TRANSITION OF UPPER FEATURES...BUT MOISTURE RECOVERY AND TIMING
REMAIN A LARGE UNCERTAINTY BY SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN
CHANCES SILENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD SLIDE
OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE
PREVIOUSLY RESIDING LOW. DEPENDING ON TIMING AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST...MAY SEE
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURN ALOFT WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS...BUT SEE NOWHERE CLOSE TO A CLEAR ENOUGH SIGNAL TO INSERT
MENTIONABLE POPS AT THIS TIME.
MOIST SOIL AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S/LOW 80S ON THE CAPROCK WITH 80S IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S/60S WEST OF THE ESCARPMENT AND 60S EAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 80 59 80 58 78 / 20 10 30 30 20
TULIA 81 61 81 59 80 / 20 20 30 30 20
PLAINVIEW 80 62 80 59 79 / 20 20 30 30 20
LEVELLAND 81 62 80 60 78 / 20 20 30 30 20
LUBBOCK 81 63 80 60 79 / 20 20 30 30 20
DENVER CITY 81 61 80 61 77 / 20 20 30 30 20
BROWNFIELD 81 62 80 61 79 / 20 20 30 20 20
CHILDRESS 86 66 85 62 84 / 20 20 20 20 20
SPUR 82 64 83 61 81 / 30 20 30 20 20
ASPERMONT 83 65 85 62 83 / 20 20 20 20 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
347 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED NEAR 32N115W WILL BECOME ELONGATED IN A
NE/SW ORIENTATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE
DAKOTA OPENS LEAVING A TROUGH AXIS BACK TOWARD WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL
HELP OVERSPREAD SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AS EVIDENCED BY
Q-VECTOR ANALYSIS THROUGH 12Z WED.
AT THE SURFACE...MOIST ADVECTION FROM OUR SOUTH BRINGS JUICY NEAR
SFC AIR BACK INTO OUR AREA AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING. THIS IS BEST
VISUALIZED IN THE HRRR BUT ALSO EVIDENT IN THE NAM. GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF STANDING WATER TO OUR SOUTH...SUSPECT THAT THE DEWPOINTS
MAY BE A BIT HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED. THIS TYPE OF WEAKLY
FORCED SCENARIO USUALLY IS HANDLED BEST BY EXAMINING THE BEST SFC
THETA-E FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS A RATHER BROAD AREA COVERING
ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF PARMER COUNTY
AND THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A LONG/SKINNY
CAPE SITUATION ABOVE ABOUT 750MB. BEST SURFACE DIVERGENCE FIELDS
LOOK TO REMAIN S OF THE AREA FROM NEAR ASPERMONT BACK TOWARD
ODESSA. ALL IN ALL...NOT JUST A WHOLE LOT ACROSS OUR AREA TO
IDENTIFY PREFERRED AREAS OF CONVECTION OUTSIDE THE AFOREMENTIONED
THETA-E MAX. TURNING TO THE MODEL PARAMETRIZED PRECIPITATION
ESTIMATES...NOT MUCH DIFFERENT POPS OUT. WILL THEREFORE MAKE
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC TO CHC WITH BETTER POPS SOUTH CENTRAL THENCE
DIMINISHING TOWARD THE E/W/N. PWAT WILL BE A FAIR BIT ABOVE NORMAL
SO SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. FCST INSTABILITY WILL PERMIT
A FEW STRONG PULSE STORMS WITH 1-2 KJ/KG ACROSS THE SOUTH. 1-6KM
SHEAR IS BEST ACROSS THE NORTH. SUSPECT THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING
SOME MODERATE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE NEAR THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT AND SO WILL HIGHLIGHT THAT POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. THE
BULK OF ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OFF IN THE EVENING THOUGH SOME
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE
LAST TWO WEEKS.
&&
.LONG TERM...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A MESSY SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. UPPER LOW MOVING ONTO THE CENTRAL-NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WILL ELONGATE AND STRETCH BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AS IT
APPROACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...POTENTIALLY ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW SOMEWHERE IN
VICINITY OF THE PERMIAN BASIN. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY KEEP AN UPPER
RIDGE DISPLACED TO OUR WEST AS IT STRETCHES FROM BAJA INTO MANITOBA.
MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE ALONG WITH THIS FORCING WILL KEEP STORM
CHANCES IN PLAY FOR ALL LOCALES WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE AS CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG. CHANCES
BEGIN TO SHIFT WEST THURSDAY WITH DRY AIR INTRUDING FROM THE EAST.
THIS WILL SHUTDOWN PROSPECTS FOR ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
AS PWATS TAKE A NOTICEABLE PLUMMET TO WELL BELOW ONE INCH.
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OFFSHORE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS CALIFORNIA INTO
THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE WEEKEND...SHOVING THE CUTOFF LOW/TROUGHINESS
EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. BACKING FLOW WILL OCCUR WITH THIS
TRANSITION OF UPPER FEATURES...BUT MOISTURE RECOVERY AND TIMING
REMAIN A LARGE UNCERTAINTY BY SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN
CHANCES SILENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD SLIDE
OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE
PREVIOUSLY RESIDING LOW. DEPENDING ON TIMING AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST...MAY SEE
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURN ALOFT WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS...BUT SEE NOWHERE CLOSE TO A CLEAR ENOUGH SIGNAL TO INSERT
MENTIONABLE POPS AT THIS TIME.
MOIST SOIL AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S/LOW 80S ON THE CAPROCK WITH 80S IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S/60S WEST OF THE ESCARPMENT AND 60S EAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 80 59 80 58 78 / 20 10 30 30 20
TULIA 81 61 81 59 80 / 20 20 30 30 20
PLAINVIEW 80 62 80 59 79 / 20 20 30 30 20
LEVELLAND 81 62 80 60 78 / 20 20 30 30 20
LUBBOCK 81 63 80 60 79 / 20 20 30 30 20
DENVER CITY 81 61 80 61 77 / 20 20 30 30 20
BROWNFIELD 81 62 80 61 79 / 20 20 30 20 20
CHILDRESS 86 66 85 62 84 / 20 20 20 20 20
SPUR 82 64 83 61 81 / 30 20 30 20 20
ASPERMONT 83 65 85 62 83 / 20 20 20 20 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
26/31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1225 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
AT 3 AM...A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA. THIS HIGH WAS PRODUCING LIGHT SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAS
RESULTED IN DENSE FOG FORMING AT BLACK RIVER FALLS...MEDFORD...
SPARTA...AND VOLK FIELD. FROM THE OFFICE...WE CAN SEE FOG FORMING
IN THE ROOT... LA CROSSE...BLACK...AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE THE WINDS AT THE OFFICE AND GRANDDAD BLUFF ARE IN THE 10
TO 20 MPH RANGE. THE LATTER IS BASED OFF THE FLAG. THIS IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH WHAT THE NAM SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING. BOTH THE GFS
AND RAP ARE TOO LOW WITH THEIR WIND SPEEDS AT LEAST AT 550 TO
700 FEET. WITH THE STRATUS AND FOG ALREADY DEVELOPING IN THE
LOCAL RIVER VALLEY... EXPECT THAT THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION NOW
EXTENDS AT LEAST UP TO 500 FEET. WITH THE NAM CONTINUING TO SHOW
LIGHT WINDS BELOW THE INVERSION...THE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND BECOME DENSE BY 5 AM TO 530 AM....AND
THEN PERSIST THROUGH 930 AM. NAM SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW LIGHT WINDS
AND SHALLOW INVERSION ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
SO EXPECT THE FOG TO CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THERE TOO.
THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MANY OF THE MESO MODELS. HOWEVER
WITH SUCH A SHALLOW INVERSION /LESS THAN 200 FEET/...THERE IS
CONCERN THAT THE DENSE FOG COULD COME AND GO. WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN
THIS AT SEVERAL SITES...SO NO PLANS TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME.
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE AREA...WEAK
925 MB AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THE EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUES
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS CAUSES THE SOUNDINGS TO SLOWLY SATURATE
THE COLUMN BETWEEN 800 AND 600 MB. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO START TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA BETWEEN 10 PM AND 3 AM. RAIN AMOUNTS
WILL BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...A TROUGH WILL RESIDE ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH WEAK
925 TO 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH...EXPECT THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ON THURSDAY THIS TROUGH GETS
SHEARED APART WITH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH BEING ABSORBED
BY THE POLAR JET ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTHWEST AS A 90 KNOT 250 MB JET MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THIS TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM EVENTUALLY FORMS INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
LATE THIS WEEK OVER KANSAS. THIS SYSTEM THEN OPEN UP AND GETS
KICKED NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH TIMING UNCERTAINTIES JUST KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER THE REGION FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
REMAIN AROUND 14C /WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/.
THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S /MAYBE A
FEW LOWER 80S/ FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
GOOD VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
HOLDS OVER THE AREA. FEW CUMULUS IN THE 3500-4500 FT RANGE DURING
PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THICKENING CIRRUS/MID CLOUDS THRU
THE EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH IN NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE
OVER SD ROTATES EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT...SPREADING INCREASING MID/
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT ACROSS THE TAF SITES. APPEARS A BAND OF
-SHRA TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT/WED MORNING WITH THE
INITIAL ROUND OF LIFT...WEAKENING AS IT DOES. INCLUDED A -SHRA
MENTION AT KRST IN THE 06-13Z WINDOW...OTHERWISE LEFT PRECIP MENTION
AS VCSH. WITH THE LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE...APPEARS
CIGS/VSBYS WITH THIS BAND OF -SHRA TO REMAIN VFR THOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT A LCL/BRIEF MVFR VSBY IN ANY STRONGER SHRA LATE TONIGHT/WED
MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
637 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
AT 3 AM...A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA. THIS HIGH WAS PRODUCING LIGHT SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAS
RESULTED IN DENSE FOG FORMING AT BLACK RIVER FALLS...MEDFORD...
SPARTA...AND VOLK FIELD. FROM THE OFFICE...WE CAN SEE FOG FORMING
IN THE ROOT... LA CROSSE...BLACK...AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE THE WINDS AT THE OFFICE AND GRANDDAD BLUFF ARE IN THE 10
TO 20 MPH RANGE. THE LATTER IS BASED OFF THE FLAG. THIS IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH WHAT THE NAM SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING. BOTH THE GFS
AND RAP ARE TOO LOW WITH THEIR WIND SPEEDS AT LEAST AT 550 TO
700 FEET. WITH THE STRATUS AND FOG ALREADY DEVELOPING IN THE
LOCAL RIVER VALLEY... EXPECT THAT THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION NOW
EXTENDS AT LEAST UP TO 500 FEET. WITH THE NAM CONTINUING TO SHOW
LIGHT WINDS BELOW THE INVERSION...THE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND BECOME DENSE BY 5 AM TO 530 AM....AND
THEN PERSIST THROUGH 930 AM. NAM SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW LIGHT WINDS
AND SHALLOW INVERSION ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
SO EXPECT THE FOG TO CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THERE TOO.
THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MANY OF THE MESO MODELS. HOWEVER
WITH SUCH A SHALLOW INVERSION /LESS THAN 200 FEET/...THERE IS
CONCERN THAT THE DENSE FOG COULD COME AND GO. WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN
THIS AT SEVERAL SITES...SO NO PLANS TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME.
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE AREA...WEAK
925 MB AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THE EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUES
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS CAUSES THE SOUNDINGS TO SLOWLY SATURATE
THE COLUMN BETWEEN 800 AND 600 MB. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO START TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA BETWEEN 10 PM AND 3 AM. RAIN AMOUNTS
WILL BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...A TROUGH WILL RESIDE ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH WEAK
925 TO 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH...EXPECT THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ON THURSDAY THIS TROUGH GETS
SHEARED APART WITH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH BEING ABSORBED
BY THE POLAR JET ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTHWEST AS A 90 KNOT 250 MB JET MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THIS TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM EVENTUALLY FORMS INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
LATE THIS WEEK OVER KANSAS. THIS SYSTEM THEN OPEN UP AND GETS
KICKED NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH TIMING UNCERTAINTIES JUST KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER THE REGION FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
REMAIN AROUND 14C /WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/.
THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S /MAYBE A
FEW LOWER 80S/ FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED IN LSE...WITH LIFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES OBSERVED. THERE IS POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS FOR THE VISIBILITY TO DROP TO VLIFR...BUT PREDOMINANTLY LIFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE OBSERVED. LOOK FOR THE VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS
TO DISSIPATE BETWEEN 9-10 AM JUST LIKE YESTERDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS VFR...DUE TO DRY AIR IN
THE LOWEST 5000 FT ABOVE THE GROUND PROVIDED BY HIGH PRESSURE.
NOTE...THOUGH...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE OF ALTOSTRATUS TONIGHT
AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THERE COULD
EVEN BE A FEW SHOWERS IMPACTING RST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
346 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
AT 3 AM...A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA. THIS HIGH WAS PRODUCING LIGHT SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAS
RESULTED IN DENSE FOG FORMING AT BLACK RIVER FALLS...MEDFORD...
SPARTA...AND VOLK FIELD. FROM THE OFFICE...WE CAN SEE FOG FORMING
IN THE ROOT... LA CROSSE...BLACK...AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE THE WINDS AT THE OFFICE AND GRANDDAD BLUFF ARE IN THE 10
TO 20 MPH RANGE. THE LATTER IS BASED OFF THE FLAG. THIS IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH WHAT THE NAM SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING. BOTH THE GFS
AND RAP ARE TOO LOW WITH THEIR WIND SPEEDS AT LEAST AT 550 TO
700 FEET. WITH THE STRATUS AND FOG ALREADY DEVELOPING IN THE
LOCAL RIVER VALLEY... EXPECT THAT THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION NOW
EXTENDS AT LEAST UP TO 500 FEET. WITH THE NAM CONTINUING TO SHOW
LIGHT WINDS BELOW THE INVERSION...THE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND BECOME DENSE BY 5 AM TO 530 AM....AND
THEN PERSIST THROUGH 930 AM. NAM SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW LIGHT WINDS
AND SHALLOW INVERSION ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
SO EXPECT THE FOG TO CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THERE TOO.
THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MANY OF THE MESO MODELS. HOWEVER
WITH SUCH A SHALLOW INVERSION /LESS THAN 200 FEET/...THERE IS
CONCERN THAT THE DENSE FOG COULD COME AND GO. WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN
THIS AT SEVERAL SITES...SO NO PLANS TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME.
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE AREA...WEAK
925 MB AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THE EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUES
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS CAUSES THE SOUNDINGS TO SLOWLY SATURATE
THE COLUMN BETWEEN 800 AND 600 MB. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO START TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA BETWEEN 10 PM AND 3 AM. RAIN AMOUNTS
WILL BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...A TROUGH WILL RESIDE ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH WEAK
925 TO 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH...EXPECT THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ON THURSDAY THIS TROUGH GETS
SHEARED APART WITH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH BEING ABSORBED
BY THE POLAR JET ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTHWEST AS A 90 KNOT 250 MB JET MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PORTIONOF
THIS TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM EVENTUALLY FORMS INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
LATE THIS WEEK OVER KANSAS. THIS SYSTEM THEN OPEN UP AND GETS
KICKED NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH TIMING UNCERTAINTIES JUST KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER THE REGION FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
REMAIN AROUND 14C /WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/.
THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S /MAYBE A
FEW LOWER 80S/ FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. ALREADY
SEEING SOME FOG FORMING IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER CHANNEL WITH KONA
DOWN TO 4SM AT 23.04Z. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR A DENSE
FOG EVENT AT KLSE WITH A 3 DEGREE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD AT 04Z
WITH A LIGHT UP CHANNEL FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THE 23.00Z NAM
CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEEP LIGHT WIND PROFILE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
SATURATION OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE. WITH SOME FOG ALREADY
DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER CHANNEL...MOVED THE TIMING OF
THE FOG DEVELOPMENT UP A LITTLE BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BUT NOT BY MUCH AS NO SIGNS OF A HAZE LAYER OVER THE
CITY YET. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF...SHOULD BE ANOTHER DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
SOUTH WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO
INCREASE TUESDAY EVENING AND WILL PROBABLY SEE A HIGH VFR CEILING
AT BOTH SITES...BUT WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE KLSE
TAF DID NOT INCLUDE ANOTHER GROUP TO SHOW THIS OCCURRING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
110 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014/
UPDATE...
WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THE AREA AND OVERRUNNING ON
THE ISENTROPIC LEVELS SEEING SOME MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVEL BL.
AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST. WENT AND RAISED THE LOWS ANYWHERE
FROM A DEGREE TO 4 DEGREES IN THIS AREA. ALSO HAD TO CHANGE THE
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES. AT THIS TIME THE 00Z RUC SEEMED TO HAVE THE
BEST HANDLE ON THE DEWPOINTS AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. USED
THAT MODEL AND INHOUSE WRF ALONG WITH TRENDS TO DECIDE AN INCREASE
IN THE TEMPS WAS WARRANTED. NO OTHER CHANGES OR UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
ARG
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS OF SHOWER CHANCES AND TEMPS ARE
RELATIVELY LOW IMPACT...SUBTLE DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AND LACK
OF STRONG FORCING MAKES FOR A TRICKY OUTCOME. UPPER LOW AND BETTER
MOISTURE FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO DAMPEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST THOUGH
WAVES OF EASTWARD LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL KEEP
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA CLOUDY WITH LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MAIN FORCING FOR ANY PRECIP WILL BE WITH
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AGAINST A STRONG CLASSICAL CAD WEDGE FROM A
1038MB PARENT HIGH SET TO PUSH EAST AND WEAKEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT POPS IN PORTIONS OF THE EAST FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TRENDING BASED ON UPGLIDE ALONG THE NAM
300K THETA LEVEL AS HI-RES SOLUTIONS DO NOT HELP IN CONFIDENCE.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF TIMING AND EXTENT OF ANY SHOWERS CHANGES.
AT LEAST NO THUNDER CONCERNS GIVEN STABLE WEDGE ENVIRONMENT.
FOR TEMPS...WEDGE AND CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
BLEND OF GUIDANCE PICKS UP ON SOME OF THIS...BUT THURSDAY HIGHS MAY
BE STILL TOO HIGH BASED ON HOW PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST WAS
STRUGGLING TO GET EVEN OUT OF THE 60S TODAY.
BAKER
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS ARE ARE
VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS BEING ADVERTISED YESTERDAY AND THUS
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A DECENT RAIN EVENT VERY LATE INTO THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT...BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THE SE GEORGIA AND NE FLORIDA COASTAL
CONVERGENCE ACTIVITY WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE LOCAL AREA IN LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW REGIME. MOST OF THE TIME IN SUCH
PATTERNS...THE SHOWERS REMAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN MODELS
SUGGEST AND FOR THIS FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND LIMIT AREAL
COVERAGE TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT IN GENERAL.
NORMALLY WOULD NOT HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN SUCH A COMPLICATED
SETUP WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW TRAPPED WITHIN LARGE SCALE UPPER
RIDGE. BUT IN THIS CASE...THINKING THE ONLY VARIABLE WHICH COULD
RADICALLY CHANGE THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW
EJECTING OUT. WHETHER THIS IS SUNDAY OR MONDAY OR LATER...IT
APPEARS LIKELY IT WILL HAPPEN EVENTUALLY AND WHEN IT DOES WE CAN
EXPECT A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN TO DEVELOP ALONG
WITH A GOOD FETCH OFF HE GULF PRODUCING PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST LIKELY COVERAGE
WITH MOST MODELS INDICATING CATEGORICAL POPS WITH SUSTAINED
MODERATE RAINFALL OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD. WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH 60
POPS FOR A WIDE EXPANSE AND FAVOR SLIGHTLY THE GFS QUICKER
PROGRESSION AS LATEST ECMWF HAS ACTUALLY TRENDED TOWARD THIS
SOLUTION.
DEESE/01
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
IFR-MVFR CEILINGS INCREASING ACROSS THE TAF AREA. IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR IS EXPECTED TOWARD MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CONCERN FOR
SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS OVER THE EASTERN AREA DUE TO DRIZZLE AND
POSSIBLY FOG. MAINLY NE WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR CEILINGS AND IMPROVEMENT TIMES TODAY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
BDL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 77 62 78 63 / 20 20 20 10
ATLANTA 78 65 79 65 / 10 20 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 77 58 77 58 / 10 20 20 5
CARTERSVILLE 81 60 81 63 / 10 10 10 10
COLUMBUS 80 65 82 67 / 10 10 10 20
GAINESVILLE 76 63 77 63 / 10 20 20 10
MACON 78 64 82 65 / 10 10 20 20
ROME 81 58 82 62 / 10 10 10 5
PEACHTREE CITY 78 60 80 62 / 10 10 10 10
VIDALIA 78 67 83 69 / 20 20 20 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...BDL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
228 AM MDT THU SEP 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT THU SEP 25 2014
A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVE INTO NEVADA. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A TROUGH WILL START DEVELOPING OVER WYOMING FRIDAY AND INTO
EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE AND OR LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING WILL KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS ONGOING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WARM FRONT APPEARS
TO BE TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE FA TO WARRANT ANY CONCERN FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN FA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. POPS WILL
BE NIL FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
BOUNDARY LAYER RH DOES INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN FA BUT ARE AROUND
70 PERCENT. THIS IS CONSIDERABLY UNDER THE 90 PERCENT THAT IS
MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL
BE CALM. FOR NOW WILL MONITOR ANY DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO ISSUANCE.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT THU SEP 25 2014
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS AN UPPER LOW/MID-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN REGION...BRINGING
MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AS GUIDANCE IS SLOWLY
BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN AND ACROSS DIFFERENT MODELS.
OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SLOWER AND DEEPER EVOLUTION OF THE
TROUGH...WHICH MEANS A SLIGHT DELAY ON PRECIP BUT A BETTER SHOT AT
FORCING/MOISTURE.
SUN/MON...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. RAINFALL CHANCES BEST
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST FORCING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LATEST ECMWF IS PARTICULARLY WET...PAINTING A
WIDESPREAD HALF-INCH PLUS QPF ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...NORTHWEST
KANSAS...AND ALMOST THE ENTIRE WESTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA. AS IN
PREVIOUS RUNS IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAIN
WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CWA IN WESTERN NEBRASKA...BUT GIVEN THE
SLOWER/DEEPER TREND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS MAXIMA DRIFTS
SOUTH IN FUTURE RUNS. PWATS ARE IN THE 1.0 TO 1.3 INCH RANGE...NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE BUT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
NONETHELESS. INSTABILITY APPEARS A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS...UP TO 1000 J/KG MUCAPE LATE MONDAY. 0-6KM SHEAR IN THE
20 TO 30 KT RANGE INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE MAINLY ORGANIZED
MULTICELLULAR...AND WITH A 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING EARLY MONDAY EVENING
ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH STORM MOTIONS NORTH-NORTHEAST AT AROUND 15 KTS.
TUES...DRY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 70S. AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
SWINGS EAST THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ALONG CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA/KANSAS...REMAINING OUTSIDE THE CWA.
WED/THURS...WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH PARKED ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE CONUS THE REGION WILL BE UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT
MID/UPPER LEVELS. AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION THAT BROUGHT
RAIN MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT MOVES NORTH ANOTHER UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIPS OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SWINGS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. HIGHS A
BIT COOLER AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS TURN OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND A WEEK
COLD FRONT...IN THE LOW 70S TO PERHAPS AS COOL AS THE MID 60S ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT WED SEP 24 2014
KGLD...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY. MAY SEE
SOME HIGH BASED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE 19Z-23Z TIME
FRAME. WINDS AT TAF ISSUANCE FROM THE SOUTH NEAR 10KTS BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AROUND 06KTS BY 09Z THEN SOUTHEAST AT 05KTS BY 14Z. FROM
18Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND
11KTS EXPECTED...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD FROM 19Z-23Z WHERE SOME
GUSTS NEAR 18KTS POSSIBLE.
KMCK...VFR EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH 10Z AND AFTER 16Z. IN THE
11Z-15Z TIME FRAME SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REACHES
THE TERMINAL FROM THE EAST PRODUCING SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME IFR VIS IF THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN
VERIFIES. WINDS AT TAF ISSUANCE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 07KTS
BECOMING VRB03KTS OR LESS IN THE 08Z-17Z TIME FRAME. FROM 18Z
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST NEAR
10KTS...SOME GUSTS TO 16KTS POSSIBLE IN THE 19Z-23Z TIME FRAME.
SIMILAR TO KGLD MAY SEE SOME HIGH BASED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
CLOUDS IN THE 19Z-23Z TIME FRAME.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1050 PM MDT WED SEP 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT WED SEP 24 2014
LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT
MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE WEST. CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...CONVERGENCE WITH
THE 850MB JET AND SURFACE TROUGH...AND ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
HIGHER 0-1KM MIXED LAYER CAPE.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT THE STORMS DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTHWEST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE MEAN WIND DIRECTS THEM
SOUTH. DESPITE CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THEM TO BECOME STORMS DUE TO 0-1KM
MIXED LAYER CAPE LESS THAN 500J/KG. FURTHER EAST NEAR GOVE AND HILL
CITY MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASES TO AROUND 700J/KG BUT THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THEREFORE ANTICIPATE STORMS
TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. THE
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES BACK NORTH BUT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE TOO DRY
AND STABLE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE OVER THE
EAST 1/3 OF THE AREA AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES BACK NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP EAST OF HWY 25
AROUND SUNRISE.
THURSDAY MORNING THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF A COUPLE HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE. DURING THE AFTERNOON A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS KEEP THE INSTABILITY SOUTH
OF THE AREA SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT WED SEP 24 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS STRONG TROUGH DIGS INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. WHILE THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM
MODELS ABOUT DEVELOPING A WARM FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION...SREF DATA ALONG WITH
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR
ANY POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH H5 TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...WILL SEE AN
INCREASING INFLUENCE ON THE SFC PATTERN ACROSS THE CWA. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ON FRIDAY...AND WILL BE EVEN STRONGER
ON SATURDAY. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BE WARNING
SPEEDS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SUSTAINED 30 GUST 45 MPH
TYPE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE EXTENDED (SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...STRONG H5 TROUGH
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY WILL BE MAJOR FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS IT POTENTIALLY WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO MAGNITUDE OF THE TROUGH
ALTHOUGH SOME SIG DIFFERENCES REMAIN. GEFS H5 MEAN/STD DEV PLOTS
SUGGEST MAIN ISSUE IN THE ENSEMBLES IS THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS
OPPOSED TO STRENGTH...AND THEREFORE THINK A PERIOD OF HIGHER POPS IS
WARRANTED DURING THE START OF THE WEEK. THINK MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED WHICH COULD IMPACT STRENGTH OF RESPONSE TO
TROUGH...BUT OVERALL THINK SOME PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKELY.
OTHERWISE...THINK MEAN VALUES LOOK REPRESENTATIVE FOR THE TIME BEING
AND DID NOT MAKE ANY LARGE CHANGES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT WED SEP 24 2014
KGLD...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY. MAY SEE
SOME HIGH BASED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE 19Z-23Z TIME
FRAME. WINDS AT TAF ISSUANCE FROM THE SOUTH NEAR 10KTS BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AROUND 06KTS BY 09Z THEN SOUTHEAST AT 05KTS BY 14Z. FROM
18Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND
11KTS EXPECTED...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD FROM 19Z-23Z WHERE SOME
GUSTS NEAR 18KTS POSSIBLE.
KMCK...VFR EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH 10Z AND AFTER 16Z. IN THE
11Z-15Z TIME FRAME SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REACHES
THE TERMINAL FROM THE EAST PRODUCING SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME IFR VIS IF THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN
VERIFIES. WINDS AT TAF ISSUANCE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 07KTS
BECOMING VRB03KTS OR LESS IN THE 08Z-17Z TIME FRAME. FROM 18Z
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST NEAR
10KTS...SOME GUSTS TO 16KTS POSSIBLE IN THE 19Z-23Z TIME FRAME.
SIMILAR TO KGLD MAY SEE SOME HIGH BASED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
CLOUDS IN THE 19Z-23Z TIME FRAME.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
347 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
MESOSCALE MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH THE TRACK AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. WILL KEEP VERY LOW POPS ALONG OUR
SOUTHERNMOST BORDER IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ADJACENT OFFICES.
MOISTURE FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS OUR REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF MAINLY AC AND CS. HAVING SAID THAT...VERY
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR REGION AS NOTED BY THE 00Z GYX
SOUNDING AND THE EXTREMELY LOW DEW POINTS ON THE SUMMIT OF MOUNT
WASHINGTON.
EXPECT INLAND VALLEYS TO CONTINUE TO HAVE FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING...BEFORE THE WEAKENING SEPTEMBER SUN MIXES THINGS OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
LATEST HRRR RUN BRINGS MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF VERY LIGHT RAIN
INTO NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS...JUST SOUTH OF OUR BORDER THIS
EVENING...BEFORE BEGINNING TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD ONE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP VERY LOW POPS OVER
SOUTHERNMOST AREAS NEAR THE MASS BORDER THIS PACKAGE ONCE AGAIN.
ON FRIDAY...EXPECT A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES TO
BEGIN. WIDESPREAD 70S WILL BE THE RULE...EVEN ALONG THE COAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE DRY AIR BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGE ALSO SLIDES EAST WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BENEATH THE RIDGE. EXPECT DAILY HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE RISING THROUGH SUNDAY... WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY
REACHING 80 DEGREES IN A FEW PLACES.
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. THERE WILL BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ALONG THE FRONT BUT OVERALL THE MOISTURE CONNECTION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IS LIMITED SO DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OR
HEAVY RAIN. EASTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY KEEPS TEMPERATURES EVEN
COOLER... BUT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL
TO THE SOUTH SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE DOING A BETTER JOB DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THAN THE
GFS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN CANADA AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES... KEEPING SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EXCEPT FOR SOME VALLEY
FOG WITH A PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THIS MORNING AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...WILL HAVE NIGHTLY FOG AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD (AND
OCCASIONALLY CONCORD) BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS WITH LOW PRESSURE AND STRONGEST GRADIENT
REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF OUR COASTAL WATERS.
LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEP WINDS
LIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
247 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR TROF FM
SCENTRAL CANADA THRU THE PLAINS IN BTWN A RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND
ANOTHER CENTERED OVER THE ERN GREAT LKS. THERE ARE SEVERAL SHRTWVS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPR TROF. ONE OF THESE IS MOVING NEWD THRU MN
AND IS CAUSING SCT SHOWERS IN WRN WI WHERE SOME DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC IN THE DPVA IS INTERACTING WITH SOME DEEP MSTR SHOWN ON THE
12Z MPX RAOB...WHERE THE PWAT WAS ABOUT 1.15 INCH OR 160 PCT OF
NORMAL. BUT THE RAOBS SHOW MUCH DRIER AIR IS PRESENT JUST TO THE E
OF THIS MOIST AIRMASS...WITH 12Z PWATS AS LO AS 0.46 INCH AT QUAD
CITIES IOWA /55 PCT OF NORMAL/ AND 0.62 INCH AT GRB /85 PCT OF
NORMAL/. THE 12Z H85 AND H7 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS AT THOSE 2 SITES WERE
20-30C. BECAUSE OF THE PRESENCE OF THIS DRY AIR...ONLY MID/HI CLDS
SO FAR HAVE INVADED UPR MI AHEAD OF THE UPR TROF. SOME OF THE
SHOWERS IN NW WI ARE APRCHG IRONWOOD.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE ARND CLDS/POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH TROF TO THE W AND THE CLDS IMPACT ON TEMPS.
AS A DEEP UPR TROF OFF THE W COAST PRESSES TO THE E...THE TROF OVER
CENTRAL NAMERICA IS FCST TO WEEKEN STEADILY THRU THU UNDER THE
LARGER SCALE HGT RISES TO THE E OF THE TROF...INCLUDING IN THE GREAT
LKS. THE RESULT WL BE DIMINISHING DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC...WITH DEEP
LYR QVECTOR DVGC DOMINATING THE ENTIRE CWA ON THU. SINCE THE LLVL
FLOW IS FCST TO VEER ONLY SLOWLY FM THE S TO THE SW...THE ADVECTION
OF THE VERY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE QUAD CITIES/GRB RAOBS WL
AFFECT THE E HALF OF THE CWA THRU THU. SO IN THIS AREA...EXPECT ONLY
SOME MID/HI CLDS INTO THU. OVER THE W HALF...THE SLOWLY WEAKENING
DYNAMIC FORCING THRU THE NGT WL INTERACT WITH MOISTER AIR SHOWN ON
THE MPX RAOB AND FCST PWAT UP TO 160-170 PCT OF NORMAL TO GENERATE
SOME SCT LGT SHOWERS BEGINNING THIS AFTN. BUT THESE WL BEGIN TO FADE
ON THU IN THE FACE OF THE INCRSG DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC. AS FOR
TEMPS...THE GREATER INFLUX OF MSTR AND A STEADY SSW FLOW UNDER
SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT WL GREATLY RESTRICT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP
OVER THE W AND HOLD MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S. WITH DRIER AIR/A BIT
WEAKER H925 FLOW OVER THE E...EXPECT TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...LO ENUF TO ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AS SHOWN
IN CURRENT FCST. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF LINGERING CLD COVER ON THU
ESPECIALLY OVER THE W...OPTED TO LOWER FCST HI TEMPS AT MOST PLACES
THERE INTO THE 60S. THE HIEST TEMPS ON THU INTO THE 70S ARE MOST
LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL AND E AWAY FM THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF LK
MI IN THE LLVL SLY FLOW AND WHERE THERE WL A BIT MORE SUNSHINE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2014
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z FRI WITH A
TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST AND A WEAK TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WEAK TROUGH WILL FORM A CLOSED 500 MB
LOW FRI NIGHT AND THIS LOW WILL HEAD SLOWLY BACK TO THE NORTH AS THE
RIDGE GETS PUSHED SLOWLY TO THE EAST WITH A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH AND
CLOSED LOW THAT MOVES FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE ROCKIES SAT NIGHT.
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL. WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE
MORNING FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS WINDS ARE LIGHT AND GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETS UP TO ALLOW RADIATION FOG TO FORM.
OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. 12Z SUN WITH A WEAK TROUGH AND UPPER LOW
EMBEDDED IN A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THIS TROUGH
SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST 12Z MON WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT COMING
DOWN INTO THE AREA ON MON. THE 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE IN RESPONSE TO THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
DIGGING AND MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES. THE ROCKIES TROUGH
STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS ON WED. THIS WILL MEAN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE FRONT IN
THE AREA...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME POPS...BUT NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD FOR NOW FOR MON AND TUE
NIGHT AND CHANCE POPS FOR WED AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE
AREA...BUT A COLD FRONT DEVELOPS TO THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2014
ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WITH THE APPROACH OF A
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT
THE TAF SITES WITH A PERSISTENT FEED OF LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE AT IWD...WHICH IS CLOSER TO GREATER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. AS THE WINDS SLOWLY VEERS TOWARD THE SW...THE ARRIVAL OF
THE HIGHER MOISTURE SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THU MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND COOL LAKE WATERS/HI STABILITY...EXPECT WINDS NO
HIER THAN 20 KTS THRU MON. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MORE HUMID AIR OVER
THE UNUSUALLY COOL LK WATERS...SOME FOG MAY FORM LATE THU NIGHT INTO
FRI AND LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
120 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR TROF FM
SCENTRAL CANADA THRU THE PLAINS IN BTWN A RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND
ANOTHER CENTERED OVER THE ERN GREAT LKS. THERE ARE SEVERAL SHRTWVS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPR TROF. ONE OF THESE IS MOVING NEWD THRU MN
AND IS CAUSING SCT SHOWERS IN WRN WI WHERE SOME DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC IN THE DPVA IS INTERACTING WITH SOME DEEP MSTR SHOWN ON THE
12Z MPX RAOB...WHERE THE PWAT WAS ABOUT 1.15 INCH OR 160 PCT OF
NORMAL. BUT THE RAOBS SHOW MUCH DRIER AIR IS PRESENT JUST TO THE E
OF THIS MOIST AIRMASS...WITH 12Z PWATS AS LO AS 0.46 INCH AT QUAD
CITIES IOWA /55 PCT OF NORMAL/ AND 0.62 INCH AT GRB /85 PCT OF
NORMAL/. THE 12Z H85 AND H7 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS AT THOSE 2 SITES WERE
20-30C. BECAUSE OF THE PRESENCE OF THIS DRY AIR...ONLY MID/HI CLDS
SO FAR HAVE INVADED UPR MI AHEAD OF THE UPR TROF. SOME OF THE
SHOWERS IN NW WI ARE APRCHG IRONWOOD.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE ARND CLDS/POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH TROF TO THE W AND THE CLDS IMPACT ON TEMPS.
AS A DEEP UPR TROF OFF THE W COAST PRESSES TO THE E...THE TROF OVER
CENTRAL NAMERICA IS FCST TO WEEKEN STEADILY THRU THU UNDER THE
LARGER SCALE HGT RISES TO THE E OF THE TROF...INCLUDING IN THE GREAT
LKS. THE RESULT WL BE DIMINISHING DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC...WITH DEEP
LYR QVECTOR DVGC DOMINATING THE ENTIRE CWA ON THU. SINCE THE LLVL
FLOW IS FCST TO VEER ONLY SLOWLY FM THE S TO THE SW...THE ADVECTION
OF THE VERY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE QUAD CITIES/GRB RAOBS WL
AFFECT THE E HALF OF THE CWA THRU THU. SO IN THIS AREA...EXPECT ONLY
SOME MID/HI CLDS INTO THU. OVER THE W HALF...THE SLOWLY WEAKENING
DYNAMIC FORCING THRU THE NGT WL INTERACT WITH MOISTER AIR SHOWN ON
THE MPX RAOB AND FCST PWAT UP TO 160-170 PCT OF NORMAL TO GENERATE
SOME SCT LGT SHOWERS BEGINNING THIS AFTN. BUT THESE WL BEGIN TO FADE
ON THU IN THE FACE OF THE INCRSG DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC. AS FOR
TEMPS...THE GREATER INFLUX OF MSTR AND A STEADY SSW FLOW UNDER
SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT WL GREATLY RESTRICT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP
OVER THE W AND HOLD MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S. WITH DRIER AIR/A BIT
WEAKER H925 FLOW OVER THE E...EXPECT TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...LO ENUF TO ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AS SHOWN
IN CURRENT FCST. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF LINGERING CLD COVER ON THU
ESPECIALLY OVER THE W...OPTED TO LOWER FCST HI TEMPS AT MOST PLACES
THERE INTO THE 60S. THE HIEST TEMPS ON THU INTO THE 70S ARE MOST
LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL AND E AWAY FM THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF LK
MI IN THE LLVL SLY FLOW AND WHERE THERE WL A BIT MORE SUNSHINE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
...WARMER THAN NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND WITH QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTN WILL
BE EXITING EAST OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING. HEIGHT RISES
SHOULD END ANY LGT RAIN SHOWERS EARLIER IN THE DAY...THOUGH A LOWER
MID CLOUD DECK 3-8KFT COULD REMAIN STUCK OVER AT LEAST WESTERN CWA
PER NAM AND GFS BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN
TO FADE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT OR MAYBE AS LATE AS FRIDAY MORNING
WITH SUBSIDENCE INCREASING AND SOME WEAK DRY ADVECTION BELOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WHILE THE WESTERN CWA WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE
CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT...EASTERN CWA SHOULD CLEAR OUT FM MID CLOUDS
EARLY IN THE EVENING...ALLOWING FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING AS
PWATS ARE BLO 50 PCT OF NORMAL. LOWERED MINS INTO THE MID 40S FOR
INTERIOR EAST AND ALSO ADDED FOG. WINDS ABOVE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER
ARE 10-15 KT FM THE SW...SO THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT FOG WOULD TURN
OUT TO BE VERY LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK. BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND
CLEARING OF THE LOW-MID CLOUDS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY SHOULD ALLOW MIXING
TO AT LEAST H875 AND POSSIBLY H85. EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
OVER ALL CWA...EXCEPT NEAR LK MICHIGAN.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL. UPPER RIDGE
SLIDES ACROSS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A REMNANT OF MID TO
UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD INTO THURSDAY MAY TRY TO LIFT BACK TOWARD
AREA ON SATURDAY. MAY SEE REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
LEADING TO FOG OR STRATUS ON FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
INTERIOR CENTRAL AND EAST CWA WITH LIGHTER WINDS CLOSER TO SFC RIDGE
AXIS. ONLY SCT MID CLOUDS WOULD RESULT FM THE MID LEVEL ENERGY WEAK
AS IT IS...AND AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT A BIG IMPACT TO THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. CAVEAT THOUGH IS WE ARE IN THAT TIME OF YEAR
WHERE SUN ANGLE IS LOWER SO IF LOW CLOUDS ARE MORE WIDESPREAD AND
THICKER THAN EXPECTED BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THEY COULD TAKE
A WHILE TO BURN OFF /LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN INSTEAD OF MID
MORNING EARLIER IN THE SUMMER/. OVERALL THOUGH...AT THE LEAST...MOST
AREAS AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN SHOULD SEE A DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AS H85 TEMPS PUSH 12-14C BY AFTN. NORMAL HIGHS FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER ARE LOW TO MID 60S.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS LACKING /H7-H5 RH LESS THAN 50 PCT/ SO
ONLY EXPECT SCATTERED MID CLOUDS. SFC RIDGE STILL CLOSE BY WITH WEST
TO EAST AXIS MAINLY AFFECTING EASTERN CWA. PWATS ON THE INCREASE
WITH THE UPPER LOW REMNANT NEARBY...SO RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL
SEEMS LESS THAN PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS. MINS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY IN THE
50S FOR THE CWA. INTO SUNDAY...DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR WITH
REGARD TO HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LEVEL FLATTENS OUT ALLOWING FOR A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO WORK IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO NORTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHWEST QUEBEC. GEM-NH
AND ECMWF ARE QUICKER BRINGING THIS FRONT THROUGH...FAVORING A FROPA
ON SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...GFS INSISTS ON A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING THROUGH AND MORE OF A SFC TROUGH FORMING...KEEPING SW WINDS
OVER UPR MICHIGAN THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY BEFORE FROPA OCCURS. WPC
AND CONSENSUS BLEND GOES AWAY FM THE GFS AND THIS FORECAST WILL DO
LIKEWISE. RESULT WILL BE MORE MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON SUNDAY...THEN A COOLING TREND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES SEEM SMALL AS STRONGER FORCING STAYS TO NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR
THROUGH MONDAY AND THERE IS MINIMAL THETA-E ADVECTION FOR FRONT TO
WORK WITH AS IT MOVES THROUGH. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THE COOLING TREND
AND PROBABLY DECENT AMOUNT OF LOWER CLOUDS FOR MONDAY.
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVES BY MIDWEEK. MOISTURE ADVECTION BETTER
WITH THIS FRONT AS SOUTH WINDS BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
COUPLE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVES SHOULD LIFT ACROSS AHEAD OF LARGER
SCALE TROUGHING SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. TSRA
CHANCES SMALL AS AXIS OF HIGHER MLCAPES ARE FORECAST TO STAY TO WEST
OF CWA...CLOSER TO FRONT SIDE OF LARGER SCALE TROUGHING ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2014
ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WITH THE APPROACH OF A
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT
THE TAF SITES WITH A PERSISTENT FEED OF LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE AT IWD...WHICH IS CLOSER TO GREATER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. AS THE WINDS SLOWLY VEERS TOWARD THE SW...THE ARRIVAL OF
THE HIGHER MOISTURE SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THU MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND COOL LAKE WATERS/HI STABILITY...EXPECT WINDS NO
HIER THAN 20 KTS THRU MON. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MORE HUMID AIR OVER
THE UNUSUALLY COOL LK WATERS...SOME FOG MAY FORM LATE THU NIGHT INTO
FRI AND LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
348 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY...BUT A WEDGE OF COOL AND DAMP HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LEFT
BEHIND OVER OUR REGION THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...
SATELLITE AND SFC OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
FROM VA TO FL...BANKED AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS...WITHIN A
PRONOUNCED CAD SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WSW FROM A PARENT 1035 MB
HIGH CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WHILE
A 1020 MB COASTAL LOW (A CAD EROSION SCENARIO) OFF THE VA CAPES WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...MOIST NNE
FLOW...TRAPPED BENEATH A LOW LEVEL INVERSION...WILL OTHERWISE FAVOR
A CONTINUED LOW OVERCAST AND ASSOCIATED COOL TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT...WHICH WAS DRIVING PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND BARELY
MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING...IS FORECAST
TO SUBSIDE ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN SANDHILLS AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN BETWEEN 12-15Z. THE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
SHOULD DIMINISH BY NOON ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SE...WHERE BOTH LOW
LEVEL UPGLIDE AND A RENEWED SLUG OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE - IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER JET AXIS - IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN. THERE...A SOLID CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
BETWEEN 1385-1395 METERS WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS SUPPORTS HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
TONIGHT: CONTIUED NE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND A 1026 MB SFC HIGH
FORECAST TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...BENEATH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...WILL FAVOR CONTINUED LOW
OVERCAST. A SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL ALSO CONTINUE OWING
TO THE CAD...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY...
1026-1028 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTH...EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDY OR MOSTLY SO CONDITIONS WILL CONSEQUENTLY
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRI EVENING...WITH ASSOCIATED CONTINUED
BELOW GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES - IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DRIVE AN AREA OF LOW
LEVEL DRYING SOUTH THROUGH VA LATE FRI AND INTO AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT OF NC FRI NIGHT...WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE RAH CWFA THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT. LOWS AGAIN
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON AVERAGE...THOUGH SOME LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD ROXBORO AND HENDERSON WHERE A
RELATIVE MINIMUM IN NE FLOW (CALM)...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS)...WOULD SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IF
THE LOW LEVEL DRYING/CLEARING INDEED ARRIVES AS SCHEDULED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST... WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN MONDAY... AS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD... INCREASING OUR RAIN CHANCES BY
TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL
TROUGH/LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD POPS AT CHANCE AT THIS POINT...
ALTHOUGH IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO LOCK IN ON THIS PATTERN...
LIKELY WOULD BE WARRANTED FOR TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL... WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS THROUGH
THE PERIOD... IN PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THURSDAY...
IN A MATURE COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME OVER CENTRAL NC...LIFR-IFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE TO IFR-MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT LOW CLOUDS COULD LIFT
AND SCATTER TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS SUGGESTED BY
GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS...PAST EXPERIENCE AND NAM AND RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS
WOULD FAVOR CONTINUED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
IN FACT...ANY IMPROVEMENT TO IFR-MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL LIKELY TREND BACK INTO THE LIFR-IFR RANGE WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING - AMIDST CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW - TONIGHT. THE
PRESENCE OF THE COLD AIR DAMMING SFC HIGH WILL ALSO RESULT IN
CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS - STRONGEST IN THE 5-12 KT RANGE
THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN DIMINISHING TO BETWEEN 3-7 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL
MAINTAIN A GOOD CHANCE OF A SLOW LIFTING AND SCATTERING TO MVFR-VFR
EACH AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS EACH
NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAIN (AFTER TODAY) ON MONDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
303 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY...BUT A WEDGE OF COOL AND DAMP HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LEFT
BEHIND OVER OUR REGION THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 PM WEDNESDAY...
THROUGH TONIGHT...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC
THIS EVENING. UPPER AIR ANALYSES FROM 00Z SHOW THE LOW OVER WESTERN
NC AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL START TO LIFT
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND VIRGINIA INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST...THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE 00Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH THE
TROUGH EXTENDING SSW TO NNE ALONG THE COAST. BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE TROUGH...WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE COAST INTO THURSDAY WHILE THE LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD. GIVEN THE GOOD LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT...EXPECT
OVERCAST SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT LOWS TO ONLY DECREASE A DEGREE OR TWO FROM CURRENT
TEMPS...GENERALLY UPPER 50S NW TO MID 60S EAST EXPECTED. -KC
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AS OF 305 PM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY
WILL START OFF WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND SOME MIST. A SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN DRIVEN BY
A MID LEVEL WAVE SKIRTING THE CAROLINA COAST. THE NAM IS MORE
BULLISH WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY THAN ITS PEERS WHICH
APPEARS TO DRIVEN BY ITS ENHANCED 925-850 MB SOUTHEAST FLOW. WILL
NOT BITE ON THIS FEATURE AT THIS TIME. NO WELL DEFINED COLD AIR
DAMMING EROSION MECHANISM WILL BE AROUND ON THURSDAY TO EFFICIENTLY
ERODE THE CAD. BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE CAD IS SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE BOTH KGSO AND KINT ONLY
REPORTED 0.01 INCHES OF RAIN. FORESEE THE CAD BEING ERODED SLOWLY
AROUND ITS PERIPHERY BY INSOLATION BUT BEING MOST STUBBORN IN THE
NORTHEAST PIEDMONT IN THE RALEIGH-HENDERSON REGION. HIGHS TOMORROW
WILL BE PROBLEMATIC WITH A NORTHEAST WIND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE LATE. WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE GIVEN THE PATTERN
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT TO
LOWER 70S AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE IN-SITU CAD WEDGE.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOME SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL REGION BUT AT THIS
POINT THEY APPEAR AS THOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE RAH CWA.
LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. -BLAES
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL NC FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS IN
TURN WILL SUPPORT THE SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF A DRY AIR SURFACE RIDGE
INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM A PARENT HIGH THAT WILL DRIFT EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FRIDAY WILL START OUT
OVERCAST WITH SPOTTY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64.
THE ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR WORKING IN TANDEM WITH SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY EAT AWAY AT THE
CLOUD COVERAGE WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER
LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT A LOT MORE SUN ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH NEAR
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE MORE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER.
NOT FULLY CONFIDENT THAT SPOTTY DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR FRIDAY MORNING SO
WILL OMIT FROM FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SINCE DECREASING CLOUD TREND
WILL OCCUR NORTH-TO-SOUTH...SHOULD SEE A UNIFORM MAX TEMP FIELD FOR
FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S.
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS
THE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUDS DO NOT DEPART UNTIL CLOSE TO OR
AFTER SUNSET. MIN TEMPS UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH. A STEADY
NE SFC WIND COUPLED WITH MOSTLY SUNNYS SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. MAX TEMPS
LOW-MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST... WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN MONDAY... AS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD... INCREASING OUR RAIN CHANCES BY
TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL
TROUGH/LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD POPS AT CHANCE AT THIS POINT...
ALTHOUGH IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO LOCK IN ON THIS PATTERN...
LIKELY WOULD BE WARRANTED FOR TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL... WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS THROUGH
THE PERIOD... IN PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THURSDAY...
IN A MATURE COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME OVER CENTRAL NC...LIFR-IFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE TO IFR-MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT LOW CLOUDS COULD LIFT
AND SCATTER TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS SUGGESTED BY
GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS...PAST EXPERIENCE AND NAM AND RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS
WOULD FAVOR CONTINUED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
IN FACT...ANY IMPROVEMENT TO IFR-MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL LIKELY TREND BACK INTO THE LIFR-IFR RANGE WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING - AMIDST CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW - TONIGHT. THE
PRESENCE OF THE COLD AIR DAMMING SFC HIGH WILL ALSO RESULT IN
CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS - STRONGEST IN THE 5-12 KT RANGE
THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN DIMINISHING TO BETWEEN 3-7 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL
MAINTAIN A GOOD CHANCE OF A SLOW LIFTING AND SCATTERING TO MVFR-VFR
EACH AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS EACH
NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAIN (AFTER TODAY) ON MONDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...KC/BLAES
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
229 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY...BUT A WEDGE OF COOL AND DAMP HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LEFT
BEHIND OVER OUR REGION THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 PM WEDNESDAY...
THROUGH TONIGHT...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC
THIS EVENING. UPPER AIR ANALYSES FROM 00Z SHOW THE LOW OVER WESTERN
NC AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL START TO LIFT
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND VIRGINIA INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST...THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE 00Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH THE
TROUGH EXTENDING SSW TO NNE ALONG THE COAST. BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE TROUGH...WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE COAST INTO THURSDAY WHILE THE LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD. GIVEN THE GOOD LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT...EXPECT
OVERCAST SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT LOWS TO ONLY DECREASE A DEGREE OR TWO FROM CURRENT
TEMPS...GENERALLY UPPER 50S NW TO MID 60S EAST EXPECTED. -KC
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AS OF 305 PM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY
WILL START OFF WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND SOME MIST. A SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN DRIVEN BY
A MID LEVEL WAVE SKIRTING THE CAROLINA COAST. THE NAM IS MORE
BULLISH WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY THAN ITS PEERS WHICH
APPEARS TO DRIVEN BY ITS ENHANCED 925-850 MB SOUTHEAST FLOW. WILL
NOT BITE ON THIS FEATURE AT THIS TIME. NO WELL DEFINED COLD AIR
DAMMING EROSION MECHANISM WILL BE AROUND ON THURSDAY TO EFFICIENTLY
ERODE THE CAD. BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE CAD IS SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE BOTH KGSO AND KINT ONLY
REPORTED 0.01 INCHES OF RAIN. FORESEE THE CAD BEING ERODED SLOWLY
AROUND ITS PERIPHERY BY INSOLATION BUT BEING MOST STUBBORN IN THE
NORTHEAST PIEDMONT IN THE RALEIGH-HENDERSON REGION. HIGHS TOMORROW
WILL BE PROBLEMATIC WITH A NORTHEAST WIND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE LATE. WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE GIVEN THE PATTERN
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT TO
LOWER 70S AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE IN-SITU CAD WEDGE.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOME SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL REGION BUT AT THIS
POINT THEY APPEAR AS THOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE RAH CWA.
LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. -BLAES
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL NC FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS IN
TURN WILL SUPPORT THE SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF A DRY AIR SURFACE RIDGE
INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM A PARENT HIGH THAT WILL DRIFT EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FRIDAY WILL START OUT
OVERCAST WITH SPOTTY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64.
THE ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR WORKING IN TANDEM WITH SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY EAT AWAY AT THE
CLOUD COVERAGE WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER
LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT A LOT MORE SUN ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH NEAR
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE MORE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER.
NOT FULLY CONFIDENT THAT SPOTTY DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR FRIDAY MORNING SO
WILL OMIT FROM FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SINCE DECREASING CLOUD TREND
WILL OCCUR NORTH-TO-SOUTH...SHOULD SEE A UNIFORM MAX TEMP FIELD FOR
FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S.
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS
THE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUDS DO NOT DEPART UNTIL CLOSE TO OR
AFTER SUNSET. MIN TEMPS UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH. A STEADY
NE SFC WIND COUPLED WITH MOSTLY SUNNYS SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. MAX TEMPS
LOW-MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ATTENDANT SFC RIDGE
MAINTAINS ITS INFLUENCE FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...CAUSING THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO ALSO WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST. THIS WILL INITIATE A RETURN
FLOW IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY. THIS FLOW WILL BEGIN A MOISTURE ADVECTION
REGIME...LEADING TO INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED UNDER
PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. MIN TEMPS
SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY WILL
LIMIT INSOLATION...LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. MAX TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. IF CLOUDS THICKER THAN ANTICIPATED...COULD
SEE MAX TEMPS 3-4 DEGREES COOLER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.
WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO CURRENT
PATTERN. MODEL GUIDANCE GIVING A STRONG SIGNAL OF AN OVERRUNNING
SCENARIO (POTENTIAL HYBRID DAMMING EVENT). UNLIKE CURRENT
EVENT....MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY SCENARIO SUGGESTS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF NC IN A FAVORED UPSLOPE
ENVIRONMENT. MODEL MOS TEMP GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COOLER AND HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MAX TEMPS END UP BEING 5-8
DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST....ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. PLAN
TO HAVE SOLID/HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY. IF MODEL TRENDS REMAIN
CONSISTENT...LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE NECESSARY.
IMPROVING WEATHER PATTERN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MID WEEK AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS REGION THOUGH DRY AIR
ADVECTION LACKING AS RESIDUAL CAD HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. MAX TEMPS
STILL SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. IF RESIDUAL CAD OCCURS...MAX
TEMPS IN THE PIEDMONT MAY END UP 4-6 DEGREES COOLER.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THURSDAY...
IN A MATURE COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME OVER CENTRAL NC...LIFR-IFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE TO IFR-MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT LOW CLOUDS COULD LIFT
AND SCATTER TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS SUGGESTED BY
GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS...PAST EXPERIENCE AND NAM AND RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS
WOULD FAVOR CONTINUED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
IN FACT...ANY IMPROVEMENT TO IFR-MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL LIKELY TREND BACK INTO THE LIFR-IFR RANGE WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING - AMIDST CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW - TONIGHT. THE
PRESENCE OF THE COLD AIR DAMMING SFC HIGH WILL ALSO RESULT IN
CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS - STRONGEST IN THE 5-12 KT RANGE
THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN DIMINISHING TO BETWEEN 3-7 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL
MAINTAIN A GOOD CHANCE OF A SLOW LIFTING AND SCATTERING TO MVFR-VFR
EACH AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS EACH
NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAIN (AFTER TODAY) ON MONDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...KC/BLAES
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1234 AM CDT THU SEP 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT THU SEP 25 2014
PATCHY STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUED IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF IFR/MVFR/VFR CLOUD SHIELD OVER MOST
OF MINNESOTA INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HRRR MODEL INDICATES STRATUS
AND FOG SPREADING ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER BASIN THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...THUS KEPT MENTION OF FOG IN THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
A LITTLE PATCH OF STRATUS HAS MOVED THROUGH KJMS BUT BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS EXPECT THIS TO BE TRANSITORY. BUT AM CONCERNED
THE FOG WILL START EARLIER THERE (STUTSMAN/FOSTER) COUNTIES SO
ADDED FOG THERE. THEN EXPANDED NORTH AND SOUTH FROM THERE AFTER
05Z. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS OK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE AXIS
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOW CLOUDS HAVE NEARLY CLEARED OUT OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. WILL ADD SOME SKY COVER FOR
THE HIGH CLOUDS AS THEY APPEAR SOMEWHAT OPAQUE. HRRR MODEL HITS
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PRETTY GOOD WITH FOG AFTER 06Z SO RAISED
THE FOG THERE FROM PATCHY TO AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING WARMTH ON THURSDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.
STRATUS HAS CLEARED ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WHICH
IS EXPECTED BY 21-22 UTC. THE 15 UTC SREF CEILING PROBABILITIES
AND 19 UTC RAP LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS SUGGEST THE STRATUS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS EAST TONIGHT. DID ADD A
PATCHY FOG MENTION TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WHERE
RESIDUAL MID 50S DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN.
FOR THURSDAY...ANOMALOUS 850 MB TEMPERATURES 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ARE FORECAST UNDER THE BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. THIS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURES IN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
LOCATION.........FORECAST HIGH........RECORD
BISMARCK.............90...............92 IN 1902
MINOT................89...............93 IN 1938
WILLISTON............93...............89 IN 2011
DICKINSON............91...............89 IN 1990
JAMESTOWN............85...............95 IN 1938
FOLLOWED THE WARMER EDGE OF THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE WHICH HAS
VERIFIED BEST THIS MONTH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
THE TREND CONTINUES...WARM AND DRY THROUGH LATE WEEKEND.
THE RIDGE...CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN MONTANA...WILL NOSE INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TOMORROW AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER...POTENTIALLY
RECORD BREAKING...TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OUT WEST. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ISN`T PROGGED TO SWING
THROUGH UNTIL SOMETIME TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST
TO SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE
MAIN WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE WAVERED BACK AND FORTH
OVER THE PREVIOUS RUNS. THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE LOW TRACK...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE AT
LEAST MOST OF THE AREA HAS A GOOD CHANCE AT SEEING SOME RAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT THU SEP 25 2014
THE COMMS OUTAGE THAT WAS IMPACTING NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY EVENING APPEARS TO BE OVER. THEREFORE KISN TAF WILL BE
ISSUED AND AMENDED AS NEEDED AS USUAL. OTHERWISE...PATCHY STRATUS
AND FOG IN THE JAMES VALLEY CONTINUED EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS KJMS
TAF REFLECTS DETERIORATING CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN
BECOMING VFR BY AROUND 15Z. OTHERWISE VFR ALL TAF SITES WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING BETWEEN 15Z-18Z WITH SOME GUSTS OVER
20 KNOTS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18Z-00Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
830 AM PDT THU SEP 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AN EARLY SEASON PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE BAY AREA THIS MORNING...REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS
MONTEREY COUNTY. RAINFALL WILL MOSTLY END BY LATE IN THE MORNING...
BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MIDDAY TODAY THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ADJOINING COASTAL LAND
AREAS NORTH OF POINT REYES TODAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ALSO
RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:30 AM THURSDAY...MAIN FRONTAL BAND NICELY
PICKED UP BY KMUX RADAR THIS MORNING. HEAVIEST RAINFALL CURRENTLY
STRETCHING TO THE NNE FROM MONTEREY BAY UP TO THE FAR EAST BAY.
TOTALS HAVE BEEN GOOD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH SAN FRANCISCO UP
TO 1/2" WHILE MANY SPOTS IN THE NORTH AND EAST BAY HAVE PICKED UP
BETWEEN 2 AND 4 TENTHS. WILL BE ISSUING UPDATED RAINFALL NUMBERS
LATER THIS MORNING. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
AROUND, SO SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY,
ALTHOUGH POST-FRONTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT.
ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED WELL TO OUR
WEST (300 PLUS MILES). HOWEVER, THAT AREA OF CONVECTION IS HEADING
TOWARD OUR AREA SO WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IT. CURRENTLY FORECAST
MENTIONS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN WATERS AND
TO THE NORTH COAST.
WILL BE DOING UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS NECESSARY.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAINFALL ECHOES
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BAND NOW EXTENDING FROM
OVER SONOMA AND MARIN COUNTIES SOUTHWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE HOURS. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS THE BIG SUR COAST LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
FRONTAL BAND MOVES THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS MORNING
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A HALF INCH ACROSS THE BAY
AREA...EXCEPT AS MUCH AS THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN THE NORTH
BAY MOUNTAINS. FROM MONTEREY BAY SOUTHWARD RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
MOSTLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXCEPT LOCALLY A QUARTER INCH
IN THE HILLS ABOVE BIG SUR.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BAND
MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA KEEPING AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
ALSO INDICATED TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND NORTH
BAY ZONES...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY
IN RESPONSE TO THIS UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING. COOLER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO THE DISTRICT.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 04:11 AM PDT THURSDAY...COLD FRONT IS CLEARLY
DISCERNIBLE ON RADAR AND MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE BAY AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE FROPA WILL BRING IFR/MVFR CIGS...-RA AND REDUCED
VSBY. THE TIMING FROM THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS PRETTY GOOD...MEANING
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE 15-18Z FROM KSTS TO KSFO/KOAK.
SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL HOLD ONTO CIGS AND RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE
LONGER. BEHIND THE FRONT...AFTERNOON SCT CIGS WITH A CONVECTIVE
SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
SOME CIGS TONIGHT. CONF IS MEDIUM.
VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH WET
RUNWAYS. PRECIP/CIGS LIFTING 16-17Z. MAINLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
PATCHY CIGS TONIGHT.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS AHEAD OF FRONT THIS
MORNING. THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCT SHOWERS
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 04:11 AM PDT THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
POSSIBLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE
REGION NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST ON
FRIDAY. THE INCREASING WINDS WILL PRODUCE BUILDING WIND WAVES AND
LOCALLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: MM
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
420 AM PDT THU SEP 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AN EARLY SEASON PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE BAY AREA THIS MORNING...REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS
MONTEREY COUNTY. RAINFALL WILL MOSTLY END BY LATE IN THE MORNING...
BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MIDDAY TODAY THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ADJOINING COASTAL LAND
AREAS NORTH OF POINT REYES TODAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ALSO
RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:56 AM THURSDAY...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
RAINFALL ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BAND NOW
EXTENDING FROM OVER SONOMA AND MARIN COUNTIES SOUTHWARD OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND THE HEAVIEST
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE HOURS.
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS THE BIG SUR COAST
LATER THIS MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BAND MOVES THROUGH. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A
HALF INCH ACROSS THE BAY AREA...EXCEPT AS MUCH AS THREE-QUARTERS
OF AN INCH IN THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS. FROM MONTEREY BAY SOUTHWARD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL MOSTLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXCEPT
LOCALLY A QUARTER INCH IN THE HILLS ABOVE BIG SUR.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BAND
MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA KEEPING AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
ALSO INDICATED TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND NORTH
BAY ZONES...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY
IN RESPONSE TO THIS UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING. COOLER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO THE DISTRICT.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 04:11 AM PDT THURSDAY...COLD FRONT IS CLEARLY
DISCERNABLE ON RADAR AND MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE BAY AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE FROPA WILL BRING IFR/MVFR CIGS...-RA AND REDUCED
VSBY. THE TIMING FROM THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS PRETTY GOOD...MEANING
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE 15-18Z FROM KSTS TO KSFO/KOAK.
SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL HOLD ONTO CIGS AND RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE
LONGER. BEHIND THE FRONT...AFTERNOON SCT CIGS WITH A CONVECTIVE
SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
SOME CIGS TONIGHT. CONF IS MEDIUM.
VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH WET
RUNWAYS. PRECIP/CIGS LIFTING 16-17Z. MAINLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
PATCHY CIGS TONIGHT.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS AHEAD OF FRONT THIS
MORNING. THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCT SHOWERS
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 04:11 AM PDT THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
POSSIBLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE
REGION NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST ON
FRIDAY. THE INCREASING WINDS WILL PRODUCE BUILDING WIND WAVES AND
LOCALLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: MM
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1000 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2014
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
14Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING A COMPLEX AND SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW ARRIVES ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND RIDGES WELL UP INTO WESTERN
CANADA BEFORE FLATTENING OUT AND BECOME MORE ZONAL TO THE NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. A DISPLACED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO PIVOT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY/NE STATES
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. OUR FORECAST AREA ALSO RESIDES WITHIN THE WESTERN
CIRCULATION OF THIS UPPER RIDGE ALLOWING ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE TO STREAM BACK NORTHWARD OVERHEAD.
25/12Z SOUNDING PROFILE HAS CERTAINLY MOISTENED UP IN THE MIDDLE
LEVELS COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PW VALUES BACK UP NEAR
2". SEEING PLENTY OF LOWER STRATUS AROUND THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITHIN THE NE FLOW. THIS STRATUS LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW PER SOUNDING
PROFILE...BUT IS CHARACTERIZED BY A WELL DEFINED INVERSION. THE
STATUS WAS TOUGH TO BREAK ON WEDNESDAY IN SOME SPOTS AND LIKELY WILL
SEE A SIMILAR SCENARIO TODAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND
NORTHWARD.
AT THE SURFACE...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LOOKING AT NE FLOW BETWEEN A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...AND AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE FL EAST COAST. THIS GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE NE
FLOW GOING AND GIVES SOME CONFIDENCE TO THE SLOW MODIFICATION OF THE
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...HAVE DECIDED TO MAKE SOME CHANGES TO THE
RAINFALL FORECAST CHANCES TO THE NORTH OF MANATEE/HARDEE/HIGHLANDS
COUNTIES. SOUTH OF HILLSBOROUGH/POLK COUNTIES...THE AIRMASS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO BEGIN MODIFYING THIS MORNING (ALREADY SEEING THIS DOWN
TOWARD FORT MYERS)...AND FEEL CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE STILL QUITE
HIGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCES WILL BE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING). THE FORECAST GRIDS WILL SHOW A FAIRLY
TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE RAINFALL CHANCES FURTHER NORTH AS WE GET
DEEPER INTO THE STABLE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. HAVE REMOVED THE LIKELY
POPS FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA IN FAVOR OF 30-50% RAIN CHANCES AND
CONTINUED THAT TREND UP INTO PASCO AND HERNANDO COUNTIES. LARGER
SCALE GUIDANCE OFTEN STRUGGLES IN THESE SCENARIOS WHEN MUCH OF THE
COLUMN IS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION...BUT THE LOWEST LEVELS ARE NOT.
THE CONVECTIVE SCHEMES STILL FIRE...AND THE MODEL APPEARS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN IN REALITY. FEEL THIS IS
HAPPENING ACROSS TAMPA BAY TODAY. THE ENSEMBLE SUITE OF HIRES
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AGREES WITH THIS TIGHT RAINFALL CHANCE
GRADIENT ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND WAS FOLLOWED
MORE CLOSELY FOR THIS UPDATE FORECAST PACKAGE. IN FACT...IF THIS
SUITE OF GUIDANCE WERE TO VERIFY...THEN WE HAVE NOT DECREASED RAIN
CHANCES ENOUGH NORTH OF MANATEE AND HARDEE COUNTIES. WE WILL ALL
KNOW IF THIS FORECAST TREND IS CORRECT IN A FEW HOURS...BUT BASED ON
PAST EXPERIENCES AND HOW WELL THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE DID
ON WEDNESDAY...FEEL THIS IS THE APPROPRIATE DIRECTION TO GO WITH THE
FORECAST.
TONIGHT...
SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSH OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING WITH MOST OF
THE AREA SEEING A DRY OVERNIGHT AFTER 1-2Z. THE SETUP AGAIN LOOKS
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND SOUTHWARD ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL
STRATUS. FOLLOWED THE LOCAL HIRES GUIDANCE MEMBERS CLOSELY AS
THEY ALL ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS DEVELOPING
NORTH OF TAMPA BAY...AND AREAS OF IFR CIGS FURTHER SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOWER STRATUS HANGING IN TO THE NORTH OF KPGD THIS MORNING. THE
STRATUS HAS BROKEN FURTHER SOUTH...AND GENERALLY LOOKING AT VFR
CONDITIONS FOR KFMY/KRSW UNTIL NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVE
LATE IN THE DAY. MAY TAKE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS TO ERODE THE
STRATUS FURTHER NORTH INTO KSRQ/KTPA/KLAL...AND WILL BE EXTENDING
THE TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDDAY FOR THESE TERMINALS.
THEREAFTER...SHOULD SEE CONTINUES GO VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED
BY SCT STORMS LATE IN THE DAY. UNDER ROUND OF AREAS OF LOWER STRATUS
SEEMS LIKELY FOR TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF KPGD.
&&
.MARINE...
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WEST THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL
COMBINE WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER FLORIDA. THIS
WILL CREATE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
UNDER 15 KNOTS AND THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR RIVER FLOODING TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE LITTLE MANATEE AND MYAKKA RIVERS ALONG WITH
CYPRESS CREEK ARE ALL RUNNING WITHIN 2 FEET OF FLOOD STAGE...AND
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE THESE RIVERS TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FLOODING COULD ALSO DEVELOP ON
THE MANATEE...ALAFIA...OR PEACE RIVERS IF HEAVY RAIN BECOMES
FOCUSED IN THOSE RIVER BASIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 88 74 88 75 / 40 40 70 50
FMY 88 74 89 75 / 80 20 70 40
GIF 88 73 88 74 / 50 20 60 30
SRQ 87 74 88 74 / 50 40 70 40
BKV 88 72 88 71 / 30 20 70 50
SPG 88 77 88 77 / 30 40 70 50
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MROCZKA
MARINE...DOUGHERTY
HYDROLOGY...OGLESBY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
929 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2014
.UPDATE...MORNING ANALYSIS OF SOUNDING, SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT AND
ASSESSMENT OF THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
WARRANTS A LOWERING OF POPS FOR THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS
FOR TODAY. FOCUS OF CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR-
GULF COAST. LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS ALMOST NO ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS. WHILE POSSIBLE, DECIDED IT PRUDENT TO
LOWER POPS JUST A CATEGORY TO SCATTERED FOR THE EAST COAST METRO.
THERE IS AN AREA OF CONVECTION OFF THE SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE COAST
MOVING WESTWARD. THIS COULD MOVE ONSHORE AND/OR SPAWN OUTFLOW TO
IGNITE SCATTERED ACTIVITY, SO AM KEEPING SCATTERED TSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THERE WITH MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
FURTHER WEST. MAIN POTENTIAL IMPACT FROM THE TSTORMS TODAY WILL BE
ISOLATED STREET FLOODING DUE TO HIGH RAINFALL RATES. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2014/
UPDATE...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT DELAYED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS KAMX RADAR IS QUIET THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER, THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE BY AFTERNOON WITH CONVERGENCE
BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST OFF THE SE
FLORIDA COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE WEST WITH A PREVAILING MOIST
(GPS MET DATA SHOWING PW AROUND 2 INCHES) ESE STEERING WIND FLOW
THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SHOWER/TSTORMS LOO TO CONCENTRATE ACROSS
THE INTERIOR- GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON, DID KEEP HIGH POPS FOR
THE EAST COAST AS WELL AS THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE MOVE
POTENTIALLY COVERING A WIDER AREA. UPDATES OUT. /GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2014/
UPDATE...
THE WINDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES WILL BE EASTERLY AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD START TO DEVELOP OVER THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z THIS MORNING BEFORE THE TREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
COME INTO PLAY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WILL PUT IN VCSH FOR
ALL OF THE TAF SITES FROM 13Z UNTIL 16Z...THEN VCTS FROM 16Z UNTIL
23Z.
THE CEILING AND VIS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL OF
THE TAF SITES FOR TODAY...AS THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT KNOWN AT THIS TIME. ONCE THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO START TO FORM THEN A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE ADDED
FOR THE TAF SITES FOR THE REDUCED VIS AND CEILING.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THAT THERE IS CURRENTLY IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE CEILING AT KAPF TAF SITE EARLY THIS MORNING.
THESE LOW CEILINGS SHOULD BURN OFF DURING THE NEXT HOUR. SO WILL
PUT IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR CEILINGS UNTIL 13Z.
AVIATION...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
THE CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING AROUND THE
SOUTHEAST STATES IS BEGINNING TO OPEN UP EARLY THIS MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THE
LOW IS LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND AS OF 06Z WAS CENTERED OVER WEST
VIRGINIA WITH ITS TRAILING AXIS STILL EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE
PENINSULA FROM NEAR GRAND BAHAMA TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THESE
FEATURES ARE COMBINING TO AID IN THE CONTINUATION OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN BAHAMAS TO JUST OFF OUR
SOUTHEAST COAST. AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY, AN
ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD TO THE WEST WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING DEEP EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING BY 12Z THIS
MORNING. THIS ALREADY APPARENT WITH A SLOW WESTWARD SHIFT TO THE
RAIN SHIELD TO OUR EAST AND THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS, ESPECIALLY FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST MIAMI-DADE COUNTY NORTH
TO PALM BEACH COUNTY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY AND WITH THE DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW
BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE, MOST ACTIVITY WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE WEST
WITH THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST REGIONS SEEING MORE ACTION BOTH
TODAY AND FRIDAY.
BY SATURDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA. WITHIN THE EASTERLY
CIRCULATION AROUND THE RIDGE, DRIER AIR FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
BAHAMAS WILL WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PWAT LOWERING TO A RANGE OF 1.65-1.75 INCHES ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWEST COAST.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
LITTLE CHANGE IS FORESEEN ON SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN INTO
THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THE RIDGE AS A RESULT WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT BACK TO THE EAST AND SOUTH
ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO DEEP WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL SHIFT THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK TO THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST. AT THIS
TIME, IT IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH RETURN MOISTURE OCCURS BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW PWAT CLIMBING
BACK CLOSE TO 2" SO THERE COULD BE SOME THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS ONCE AGAIN OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST
OF THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3
FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND 2 FEET OR LESS OVER THE GULF.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 87 76 86 78 / 40 40 50 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 78 88 79 / 40 40 50 20
MIAMI 87 77 87 79 / 40 40 50 20
NAPLES 88 76 88 76 / 70 50 70 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1003 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...JUST MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES BASED ON CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS. MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST PUSHES NORTHWARD.
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD GRIDS AND MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO DEW POINTS.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH ANY
PRECIP THIS EVENING REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH PER LATEST
TRENDS...OBSERVATIONS AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.
PREV DISC...
MESOSCALE MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE TRACK AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COASTAL LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. WILL KEEP VERY LOW
POPS ALONG OUR SOUTHERNMOST BORDER IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ADJACENT
OFFICES. MOISTURE FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS OUR REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF MAINLY AC AND CS. HAVING SAID
THAT...VERY DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR REGION AS NOTED BY
THE 00Z GYX SOUNDING AND THE EXTREMELY LOW DEW POINTS ON THE
SUMMIT OF MOUNT WASHINGTON.
EXPECT INLAND VALLEYS TO CONTINUE TO HAVE FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING...BEFORE THE WEAKENING SEPTEMBER SUN MIXES THINGS OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
LATEST HRRR RUN BRINGS MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF VERY LIGHT RAIN
INTO NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS...JUST SOUTH OF OUR BORDER THIS
EVENING...BEFORE BEGINNING TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD ONE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP VERY LOW POPS OVER
SOUTHERNMOST AREAS NEAR THE MASS BORDER THIS PACKAGE ONCE AGAIN.
ON FRIDAY...EXPECT A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES TO
BEGIN. WIDESPREAD 70S WILL BE THE RULE...EVEN ALONG THE COAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE DRY AIR BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGE ALSO SLIDES EAST WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BENEATH THE RIDGE. EXPECT DAILY HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE RISING THROUGH SUNDAY... WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY
REACHING 80 DEGREES IN A FEW PLACES.
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. THERE WILL BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ALONG THE FRONT BUT OVERALL THE MOISTURE CONNECTION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IS LIMITED SO DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OR
HEAVY RAIN. EASTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY KEEPS TEMPERATURES EVEN
COOLER... BUT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL
TO THE SOUTH SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE DOING A BETTER JOB DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THAN THE
GFS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN CANADA AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES... KEEPING SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EXCEPT FOR SOME VALLEY
FOG WITH A PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THIS MORNING AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...WILL HAVE NIGHTLY FOG AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD (AND
OCCASIONALLY CONCORD) BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS WITH LOW PRESSURE AND STRONGEST GRADIENT
REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF OUR COASTAL WATERS.
LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEP WINDS
LIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
KISTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
645 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD GRIDS AND MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO DEW POINTS.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH ANY
PRECIP THIS EVENING REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH PER LATEST
TRENDS...OBSERVATIONS AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.
PREV DISC...
MESOSCALE MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE TRACK AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COASTAL LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. WILL KEEP VERY LOW
POPS ALONG OUR SOUTHERNMOST BORDER IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ADJACENT
OFFICES. MOISTURE FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS OUR REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF MAINLY AC AND CS. HAVING SAID
THAT...VERY DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR REGION AS NOTED BY
THE 00Z GYX SOUNDING AND THE EXTREMELY LOW DEW POINTS ON THE
SUMMIT OF MOUNT WASHINGTON.
EXPECT INLAND VALLEYS TO CONTINUE TO HAVE FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING...BEFORE THE WEAKENING SEPTEMBER SUN MIXES THINGS OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
LATEST HRRR RUN BRINGS MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF VERY LIGHT RAIN
INTO NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS...JUST SOUTH OF OUR BORDER THIS
EVENING...BEFORE BEGINNING TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD ONE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP VERY LOW POPS OVER
SOUTHERNMOST AREAS NEAR THE MASS BORDER THIS PACKAGE ONCE AGAIN.
ON FRIDAY...EXPECT A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES TO
BEGIN. WIDESPREAD 70S WILL BE THE RULE...EVEN ALONG THE COAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE DRY AIR BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGE ALSO SLIDES EAST WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BENEATH THE RIDGE. EXPECT DAILY HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE RISING THROUGH SUNDAY... WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY
REACHING 80 DEGREES IN A FEW PLACES.
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. THERE WILL BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ALONG THE FRONT BUT OVERALL THE MOISTURE CONNECTION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IS LIMITED SO DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OR
HEAVY RAIN. EASTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY KEEPS TEMPERATURES EVEN
COOLER... BUT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL
TO THE SOUTH SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE DOING A BETTER JOB DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THAN THE
GFS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN CANADA AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES... KEEPING SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EXCEPT FOR SOME VALLEY
FOG WITH A PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THIS MORNING AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...WILL HAVE NIGHTLY FOG AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD (AND
OCCASIONALLY CONCORD) BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS WITH LOW PRESSURE AND STRONGEST GRADIENT
REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF OUR COASTAL WATERS.
LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEP WINDS
LIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1016 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY
AND SPREAD HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE REGION...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...BUT
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1016 AM EDT THURSDAY...A FEW SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO CLOUD
COVER TODAY BASED ON MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND
LATEST RAP RH FIELDS. THIS CHANGE ESSENTIALLY KEEPS PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES /MAINLY MID-HIGH CLOUDS/ ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES
THROUGH THE AFTN. TEMPS IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WERE ALSO
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN INHERITED HOURLY TEMPS...AND WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY I`VE ADJUSTED HIGHS UP TO THE UPPER 70S
THERE. FINALLY...KEPT RIVER VALLEY FOG GOING A LITTLE WHILE LONGER
ACROSS EASTERN VT. THE CLOUDS LIMITING CONVECTIVE MIXING MAY
ACTUALLY HELP MAINTAIN THE RIVER VALLEY FOG ALONG THE LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY. DRY FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD AS RAIN SHIELD OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAS A SUBSTANTIAL LAYER OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR
UNLIKELY TO BE OVERCOME - EVIDENT IN 12Z GYX/ALB RAOBS.
PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 644 AM EDT FOLLOWS...
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO THE
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN ORDER TO MATCH A BIT BETTER WITH
CURRENT CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...OTHER THAN SOME FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING...JUST LOOKING AT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
CLOUDS WILL BE THICK ENOUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TO
HAVE SOME OBSTRUCTION TO THE SUN WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. THIS WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH READINGS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TRENDS IN THE
NEW DATA SUGGEST ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...SO HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE
AREA AND FOG SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS.
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. SO DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES
EACH DAY FOR A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD. HIGHS BY SATURDAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS COUPLE
OF FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO DAYS 4 THROUGH 7. STILL ANTICIPATING MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A COOLING TREND
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO...NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF OVER THE NEXT 7
TO 10 DAYS...VERY DRY PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
FOR SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND PROGGED 85H
TEMPS NEAR 15C....SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE M/U 70S MTNS TO L/M
80S WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE BUMPED TEMPS ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTER BASED ON LATEST LLVL THERMAL PROFILES. A QUICK
REVIEW OF RECORD HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOW 82 AT BTV...80 AT MPV...AND
85 AT MSS...A FEW OF THESE RECORDS MAYBE IN JEOPARDY. LOWS SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE M40S COLDER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
TO M/U 50S WARMER VALLEYS AND MID SLOPE AREAS....AS STRONG
NOCTURNAL LLVL INVERSIONS DEVELOP EACH NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE TERRAIN
DRIVEN WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THERMAL DIFFERENCES AND
IMPACT OF TERRAIN ON FLOW. ON MONDAY...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO OUR REGION...WITH A WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS. ECMWF STILL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH LLVL CAA AND RIBBON
OF DEEPER 850 TO 500MB RH. HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY...WITH GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS. QPF
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...IF ANY AT ALL. TEMPS MONDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL BE TRICKY...AS A NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE OCCURS IN THE LATEST
GUIDANCE. ECMWF IS MUCH COOLER...WHILE GFS SHOWS VERY LITTLE
CHANGE IN LLVL THERMAL PROFILES. HAVE USED A BLEND/COMPROMISE BETWEEN
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LATEST GUIDANCE...WHICH SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 60S
TO L70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO MID 50S...STILL SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPT/EARLY OCT. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS ACROSS OUR AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VLIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG WL PREVAIL AT SLK
THRU 13Z AND MPV THRU 14 THIS MORNING...BASED ON PREVIOUS MORNING
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS WL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING...BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
MIDDAY. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 3
TO 7 KNOTS TODAY. ONCE AGAIN FOG/BR WL DEVELOP AT SLK/MPV BTWN
04Z-06Z WITH LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BTWN 06Z-12Z FRIDAY. IN
ADDITION...SOME PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
MSS/PBG...WITH LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING. SKIES WL REMAIN MOSTLY CLR
AWAY FROM AREAS OF FOG/BR.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL RESULT IN
VFR CONDITIONS WITH EXCEPTION OF MORNING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN
FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK AND MSS BETWEEN 06Z-12Z.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
300 PM MST THU SEP 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...COMBINED WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS KEEP
MOST OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY...WITH JUST
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. A STRONG PACIFIC STORM IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN STATES LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AND WILL PROVIDE A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
POSSIBLY PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND HAIL.
AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE... DRIER WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS THEN FORECAST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
NOTE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS CONTINUING TO INCREASE WITH REGARDS TO
A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ...INCLUDING PHOENIX ON SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH
POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WINDS...AND HAIL.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE APPROACH OF STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INLAND OVER CENTRAL CA ON FRIDAY...HAS ALREADY BEGAN TO TURN THE
WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A SURGE
UPWARDS IN SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND SE CA NOW
SEEING 70+F DEWPOINTS. THE LATEST GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE HRRR AND GFS
ALSO SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE OTHER IMPACT FROM THE APPROACHING
TROF ON FRIDAY WILL BE AN INCREASE OF THE WINDS ACROSS SE CA...WITH
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15KTS...WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS LIKELY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
LATEST MODEL SUITES CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MAJOR EARLY FALL
STORM...WHICH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEGINNING
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. THIS MORNING/S 12Z
MODEL SUITES ARE VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT/S 00Z...WHICH BEGIN TO
INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SAT MORNING AS
UPPER-LEVEL DIFLUENCE INCREASES AND WINDS ALOFT INCREASE...WITH BULK
SHEAR VALUES RISING INTO THE 30-50KT RANGE ACROSS THE REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY. THESE DYNAMICS...COMBINED WITH PWATS IN THE 1.50-175
INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED-NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A FEW OF THESE CELLS
APPROACHING/REACHING SEVERE LIMITS. SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NV. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AND WIND SHEAR
PARAMETERS ARE LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
STORMS...ONLY MINIMAL COOLING IS EXPECTED IN THE MID LEVELS...WITH
500MB TEMP FORECAST TO FALL ONLY ABOUT 3 DEGREES C...FROM AROUND -6C
TO -9C....WHICH WILL LIKELY PUT A CAP ON THE AMOUNT OF SEVERE STORM
ACTIVITY THAT WE WILL SEE. THE FLAGSTAFF CWA...ON THE OTHER
HAND...IS EXPECTED TO SEE MUCH BETTER COOLING ALOFT...WITH 500MB
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE -10-15C RANGE...GIVING THAT REGION A MUCH
BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY.
AS FAR AS RAINFALL AMOUNT ARE CONCERNED...THE MODELS SEEMS TO BE
CONVERGING TOWARDS AMOUNTS IN THE 0.50-1.00 INCH RANGE OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. AFTER SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...A FAIRLY RAPID CLEARING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST IS THEN EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD
LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY DUE TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER ACROSS THE REGION.
.MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES TO IMPORT DRY AIR INTO THE REGION.
&&
AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE PHOENIX
METRO AREA EASTWARD THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. LOW CONFIDENCE
IN ANY STORMS DIRECTLY AFFECTING THE PHOENIX TERMINALS...BUT CAN/T
RULE OUT STORM OUTFLOWS POTENTIALLY CAUSING WIND SHIFTS THIS
EVENING. WINDS OVERALL WILL MAINTAIN DIURNAL DIRECTIONS DURING THE
PERIOD AND REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF PHOENIX...ARE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE REGION. DRIER AIR
WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE
OF CONVECTION THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AFTERNOON MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 20 PERCENT ON
SUNDAY...AND THEN TREND TO AROUND 15 PERCENT BY THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE DRIER AIR...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. SOME GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY...THOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...MCLANE/KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
203 PM MST THU SEP 25 2014
.UPDATE...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS UPDATED.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...COMBINED WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS KEEP
MOST OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY...WITH JUST
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. A STRONG PACIFIC STORM IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN STATES LATE FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...AND WILL PROVIDE A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
POSSIBLY PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. AFTER A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE... DRIER WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
THE FORECAST FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
NOTE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS CONTINUING TO INCREASE WITH REGARDS TO
A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ...INCLUDING PHOENIX ON SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH
POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE APPROACH OF STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INLAND OVER CENTRAL CA ON FRIDAY...HAS ALREADY BEGAN TO TURN THE
WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE
IN SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS...WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND SE CA SEEING 70+F DEWPOINTS. THE
LATEST GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE HRRR AND GFS SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
OTHER IMPACT FROM THE APPROACHING TROF ON FRIDAY WILL BE AN INCREASE
OF THE WINDS ACROSS SE CA...WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15KTS...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS LIKELY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
LATEST MODEL SUITES CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MAJOR EARLY FALL STORM
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. THIS MORNING/S 12Z MODEL SUITES
ARE VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT/S 00Z...WHICH BEGIN TO INCREASE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SAT MORNING AS UPPER-LEVEL
DIFLUENCE INCREASES AND WINDS ALOFT INCREASE...WITH BULK SHEAR
VALUES RISING INTO THE 30-50KT RANGE ACROSS THE REGION. THESE
DYNAMICS...COMBINED WITH PWATS IN THE 1.50-175 INCH RANGE ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH A FEW OF THESE CELLS APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS.
SHOWER/TSTORM COVERAGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A LARGE COOL EARLY FALL SEASON STORM WILL
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY AND FRIDAY. THE
EUROPEAN MODEL HAS NOW COME AROUND TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS
SOLUTION...WITH NEARLY IDENTICAL MASS FIELD FORECASTS. THEREFORE
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER AZ ON
SATURDAY.
STRONG 500/300 HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN CA FRIDAY EVENING...AND OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS PORTENDS INCREASED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC SOUTHWESTERLY JETSTREAM WINDS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN AZ
BY 18Z SATURDAY...COMBINED WARM MOIST ADVECTION PORTEND A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN IN
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING PHOENIX. ADDITIONALLY...
THE GFS IS STILL FORECASTING ENOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR PHOENIX WITH STRONG
WINDS AND HAIL. THEREFORE PRECIP PROBABILITIES FOR SATURDAY WERE
ADJUSTED HIGHER.
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN AZ SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE
THE COLD FRONT...I.E. OVER SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE 24...WITH
CLEARING OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ.
SUNDAY...
A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ SUNDAY. HOWEVER...
DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ALONG THE EASTERN AZ BORDER
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE PHOENIX
METRO AREA EASTWARD THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. LOW CONFIDENCE
IN ANY STORMS DIRECTLY AFFECTING THE PHOENIX TERMINALS...BUT CAN/T
RULE OUT STORM OUTFLOWS POTENTIALLY CAUSING WIND SHIFTS THIS
EVENING. WINDS OVERALL WILL MAINTAIN DIURNAL DIRECTIONS DURING THE
PERIOD AND REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF PHOENIX...ARE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE REGION. DRIER AIR
WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE
OF CONVECTION THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AFTERNOON MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 20 PERCENT ON
SUNDAY...AND THEN TREND TO AROUND 15 PERCENT BY THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE DRIER AIR...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. SOME GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY...THOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...MCLANE/KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
305 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING A COMPLEX AND SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW ARRIVES ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND RIDGES WELL UP INTO WESTERN
CANADA BEFORE FLATTENING OUT AND BECOME MORE ZONAL TO THE NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. A DISPLACED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO PIVOT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY/NE STATES
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. OUR FORECAST AREA ALSO RESIDES WITHIN THE WESTERN
CIRCULATION OF THIS UPPER RIDGE ALLOWING ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE TO STREAM BACK NORTHWARD OVERHEAD.
AT THE SURFACE...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LOOKING AT NE FLOW BETWEEN A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...AND AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE FL EAST COAST. THIS GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE NE
FLOW GOING INTO TONIGHT.
25/12Z SOUNDING PROFILE CERTAINLY MOISTENED UP IN THE MIDDLE
LEVELS COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PW VALUES BACK UP NEAR
2". THE STRATUS DECK WHICH WAS WELL SAMPLED BY THE MORNING SOUNDING
WAS QUITE STUBBORN...BUT HAS FINALLY ERODED INTO A MAINLY SCT-BKN
CUMULUS FIELD. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOW BREAKING OUT OVER
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA AND WILL BE EVOLVING WEST AND NORTHWEST
INTO THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. STILL FEEL
CONFIDENT IN LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTH OF
TAMPA BAY...WHERE GOOD DIURNAL HEATING HAS OCCURRED TO THE SOUTH OF
A ILL-DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY. EXPECT LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL TO THE
NORTH OF TAMPA BAY GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN DIURNAL
HEATING AS A RESULT OF THE LATE BURN OFF OF THE LOWER LEVEL STRATUS.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL STUCK IN THE 70S IN PORTIONS OF THE NATURE
COAST. THE TRANSITION ZONE IS THE TAMPA BAY AREA / I-4 CORRIDOR.
THERE SHOULD BE A FEW STORMS ROLLING ACROSS THIS AREA LATE
TODAY...BUT STILL FEEL COVERAGE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
CONSIDER RAIN CHANCES "LIKELY". LATEST HIRES HRRR SEEMS TO AGREE
THAT THE I-4 CORRIDOR WILL BE THE WET VS DRY BOUNDARY...AND IS VERY
AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...
TONIGHT...
IF THE LATEST HRRR IS CORRECT...THEN SHOWERS/AREAS OF RAIN WOULD
LINGER ALONG THE SUNCOAST ZONES THROUGH 2-4Z THIS EVENING. MAY MAKE
A FEW FINAL ADJUSTMENT TO EXTEND THE END OF RAIN CHANCE FOR THESE
ZONES IF NEXT LOCAL HIRES RUN AGREES WITH THE HRRR. OTHERWISE...
AFTER THE EVENING ACTIVITY DISSIPATES...A GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS EXPECTED. THE SETUP AGAIN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT AND SOUTHWARD ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS INTO
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. QUESTION WILL BE JUST HOW FAR IT
MIGRATES SOUTHWARD BEFORE SUNRISE. WOULD THINK WE WOULD NOT SEE ITS
PROGRESS BE AS EXTENSIVE AS WAS SEEN THIS MORNING...GIVEN THE
EVOLUTION OF A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA WHICH KEEPS CONDITIONS UNFAVORABLE FOR STRATUS. FOLLOWED
A BLEND OF THE LOCAL HIRES GUIDANCE MEMBERS AND THE SREF FOR SKY
COVER AND CLOUD CEILING FORECASTS. BOTH OF THESE GUIDANCE SUITES
SUGGEST THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS REACHES DOWN TO ABOUT THE I-4
CORRIDOR...AND THEN RETREATS AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. THIS STRATUS WILL
NOT MAKE MUCH OF AN IMPACT TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...BUT WILL BE
MORE OF AN AVIATION CONCERN.
FRIDAY...
SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR EAST TODAY WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE PENINSULA
AND BE ALIGNED OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND FL WEST COAST BY THE SECOND
HALF OF FRIDAY. THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR WHAT
APPEARS TO BE AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL THE MORNING HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY DRY. EVEN IF THE STRATUS DOES SET IN OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES
TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT IT TO BURN OFF/DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN TODAY
AND ALLOW FOR GOOD DIURNAL HEATING. THIS HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH
WHAT IS FORECAST BY THE NWP GUIDANCE TO BE A VERY MOIST COLUMN (PW
VALUES WELL OVER 2")...AND THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH TO FIRE OFF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS AFTER 1-2PM. THESE
STORMS WILL MIGRATE WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...AND AREAL COVERAGE
WHEN LOOKING AT THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE HIGH. SO
ANTICIPATE A ROUND OR 2 OF SHOWERS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF FRIDAY
IF FOR ANY OUTDOOR PLANS. THE VERY MOIST COLUMN DOES RESULT IN POOR
LAPSE RATES...SO UNLIKELY THAT STRONG STORMS WILL BE AN ISSUE...BUT
RATHER HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS THE LARGER THREAT. THIS THREAT IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN THE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS THAT HAVE
FALLEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IF PLACES LIKE HIGHLANDS AND LEVY
COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - NEXT THURSDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE PENINSULA LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BREAK
DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MOVING
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDING REBUILDING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN SLOWLY
SHIFT BACK SOUTHWARD AND INTO CENTRAL PORTION OF THE PENINSULA BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
STRATUS WAS STUBBORN BUT HAS MOSTLY BROKEN DOWN INTO A SCT-BKN
CUMULUS FIELD AROUND THE TERMINALS. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND WILL BE APPROACHING INTO THE
LATER AFTERNOON HOURS. AWAY FROM ANY STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. LOOKS LIKE A CLOSE CALL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS
BUILDING DOWN TOWARD KTPA/KLAL OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED MVFR CIGS IN
THE TAFS LATE TONIGHT FOR KSRQ/KTPA/KPIE/KLAL TO START A TREND DOWN.
CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENT REACHING THE CENTRAL PENINSULA IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IFR MENTION. HOWEVER...IF THE STRATUS
DOES OCCUR...THEN CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE IN THE IFR RANGE
THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA COMBINED
WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER FLORIDA WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF A NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST DIRECTION LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FEET. THE ONLY EXPECTED HAZARDS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE SUMMER-LIKE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH OF THE NEXT FEW MORNING...HOWEVER
NO WIDESPREAD FOG OR VISIBILITY ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 74 88 75 90 / 40 70 50 60
FMY 74 89 75 92 / 20 70 40 70
GIF 73 88 74 91 / 20 60 30 50
SRQ 74 88 74 90 / 40 70 40 50
BKV 72 88 71 90 / 20 70 50 70
SPG 77 88 77 89 / 40 70 50 50
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...JELSEMA
MARINE...WYNN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
139 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2014
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
WEST INTO THE INTERIOR AREAS AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SO WILL KEEP VCTS IN ALL
OF THE TAF SITES FOR THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR VCSH FOR
KMIA...KFLL...AND KOPF TAF SITES DUE TO THE WORK OVER ATMOSPHERE
FROM THE EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS. VCSH WILL CONTINUE AT ALL OF THE
EAST COAST TAF SITES TONIGHT DUE TO THE POSSIBLE SHOWERS WORKING
INTO THE THESE TAF SITES FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE WINDS WILL
ALSO BE FROM THE EASTERLY DIRECTION AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT.
THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES WILL BE VERY SHORT IN TIME. HOWEVER...WHEN
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES THE CEILING
WILL FALL DOWN INTO THE MVFR CONDITIONS.
KAPF TAF SITE COULD ALSO SEE MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS IN THE
CEILING AND VIS TOWARD SUNRISE ON FRIDAY...DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS
OR EVEN FOG COMING FROM THE INTERIOR AREAS ON THE EASTERLY WIND
FLOW. HOWEVER...WILL NOT REDUCED THE VIS OR CEILING AT KAPF TAF
SITE AT THIS TIME AS THE UNCERTAINLY IS HIGH AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 929 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2014/
UPDATE...MORNING ANALYSIS OF SOUNDING, SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT AND
ASSESSMENT OF THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
WARRANTS A LOWERING OF POPS FOR THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS
FOR TODAY. FOCUS OF CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR-
GULF COAST. LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS ALMOST NO ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS. WHILE POSSIBLE, DECIDED IT PRUDENT TO
LOWER POPS JUST A CATEGORY TO SCATTERED FOR THE EAST COAST METRO.
THERE IS AN AREA OF CONVECTION OFF THE SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE COAST
MOVING WESTWARD. THIS COULD MOVE ONSHORE AND/OR SPAWN OUTFLOW TO
IGNITE SCATTERED ACTIVITY, SO AM KEEPING SCATTERED TSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THERE WITH MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
FURTHER WEST. MAIN POTENTIAL IMPACT FROM THE TSTORMS TODAY WILL BE
ISOLATED STREET FLOODING DUE TO HIGH RAINFALL RATES. /GREGORIA
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2014/
UPDATE...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT DELAYED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS KAMX RADAR IS QUIET THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER, THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE BY AFTERNOON WITH CONVERGENCE
BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST OFF THE SE
FLORIDA COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE WEST WITH A PREVAILING MOIST
(GPS MET DATA SHOWING PW AROUND 2 INCHES) ESE STEERING WIND FLOW
THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SHOWER/TSTORMS LOO TO CONCENTRATE ACROSS
THE INTERIOR- GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON, DID KEEP HIGH POPS FOR
THE EAST COAST AS WELL AS THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE MOVE
POTENTIALLY COVERING A WIDER AREA. UPDATES OUT. /GREGORIA
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2014/
UPDATE...
THE WINDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES WILL BE EASTERLY AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD START TO DEVELOP OVER THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z THIS MORNING BEFORE THE TREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
COME INTO PLAY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WILL PUT IN VCSH FOR
ALL OF THE TAF SITES FROM 13Z UNTIL 16Z...THEN VCTS FROM 16Z UNTIL
23Z.
THE CEILING AND VIS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL OF
THE TAF SITES FOR TODAY...AS THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT KNOWN AT THIS TIME. ONCE THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO START TO FORM THEN A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE ADDED
FOR THE TAF SITES FOR THE REDUCED VIS AND CEILING.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THAT THERE IS CURRENTLY IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE CEILING AT KAPF TAF SITE EARLY THIS MORNING.
THESE LOW CEILINGS SHOULD BURN OFF DURING THE NEXT HOUR. SO WILL
PUT IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR CEILINGS UNTIL 13Z.
&&
AVIATION...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
THE CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING AROUND THE
SOUTHEAST STATES IS BEGINNING TO OPEN UP EARLY THIS MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THE
LOW IS LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND AS OF 06Z WAS CENTERED OVER WEST
VIRGINIA WITH ITS TRAILING AXIS STILL EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE
PENINSULA FROM NEAR GRAND BAHAMA TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THESE
FEATURES ARE COMBINING TO AID IN THE CONTINUATION OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN BAHAMAS TO JUST OFF OUR
SOUTHEAST COAST. AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY, AN
ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD TO THE WEST WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING DEEP EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING BY 12Z THIS
MORNING. THIS ALREADY APPARENT WITH A SLOW WESTWARD SHIFT TO THE
RAIN SHIELD TO OUR EAST AND THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS, ESPECIALLY FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST MIAMI-DADE COUNTY NORTH
TO PALM BEACH COUNTY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY AND WITH THE DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW
BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE, MOST ACTIVITY WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE WEST
WITH THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST REGIONS SEEING MORE ACTION BOTH
TODAY AND FRIDAY.
BY SATURDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA. WITHIN THE EASTERLY
CIRCULATION AROUND THE RIDGE, DRIER AIR FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
BAHAMAS WILL WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PWAT LOWERING TO A RANGE OF 1.65-1.75 INCHES ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWEST COAST.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
LITTLE CHANGE IS FORESEEN ON SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN INTO
THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THE RIDGE AS A RESULT WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT BACK TO THE EAST AND SOUTH
ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO DEEP WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL SHIFT THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK TO THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST. AT THIS
TIME, IT IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH RETURN MOISTURE OCCURS BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW PWAT CLIMBING
BACK CLOSE TO 2" SO THERE COULD BE SOME THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS ONCE AGAIN OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST
OF THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3
FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND 2 FEET OR LESS OVER THE GULF.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 87 76 86 78 / 40 40 50 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 78 88 79 / 40 40 50 20
MIAMI 87 77 87 79 / 40 40 50 20
NAPLES 88 76 88 76 / 70 50 70 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...54/BNB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
302 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...
239 PM CDT
MEAN TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
DOWNSTREAM RIDING AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE MUCH OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A LONG STRETCH OF DRY AND
MILD WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A
MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION ACROSS IOWA...WHICH REMAINS CUTOFF FROM
THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS FEATURE HAS
ONLY LEAD TO SOME MID AND HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. HOWEVER...THE LOWER LEVELS ARE TO DRY FOR MORE THAN AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE TO REACH THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW LOOK TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY...PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO THE AFTERNOON
ONSHORE FLOW/LAKE BREEZE. IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL MAINLY BE ON
REPEAT MODE FOR SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80
DEGREES AT TIMES. DUE TO THE DRYNESS OF THE ATMOSPHERE UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE...I HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO GET A BIT WARMER THAN THAT
ADVERTISED BY MOST RAW MODEL GUIDANCE.
ONE CAVEAT TO THIS REPEATED WEATHER COULD BE ON TUESDAY. SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A COLD FRONT SLIPPING DOWN THE LAKE OVER THE
AREA IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. HOWEVER...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD
WITH THE TIMING AND THE STRENGTH OF THIS DISTURBANCE...SO CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME. EVEN IF THIS WERE TO MATERIALIZE...IT WOULD ONLY
RESULT IN SOME COOLER CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY UNDER
NORTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW.
OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES LOOK TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE
LATER NEXT WEEK...WITH GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES ADVERTISING A STOUT
DISTURBANCE DIGGING OVER THE PLAINS STATES. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN
OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. HOWEVER...WITH A DECENT
POSSIBILITY OF THIS SYSTEM RUNNING SLOWER THAN WHAT THE GFS CURRENTLY
INDICATES...THE SYSTEM MAY NOT IMPACT THE REGION UNTIL VERY LATE
NEXT WEEK...RIGHT AT OR JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT 7 DAY FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES I WILL CONTINUE WITH
SOME LOWER END CHANCES LATE WED THROUGH THURSDAY.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTN WITH EAST WINDS BEHIND IT. ANOTHER LAKE
BREEZE TOMORROW AFTN.
KMD/IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
WINDS BEHIND THE LAKE BREEZE HAVE ALL GENERALLY BEEN 6-8 KT...AND
HAVE NO REASON TO BELIEVE THAT WINDS WILL GET ANY STRONGER ONCE
THE LAKE BREEZE PUSHES INTO ORD/MDW. LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW WHICH MAY ENCOURAGE A BIT STRONGER LAKE BREEZE...BUT AT
THIS TIME IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WINDS STAY BELOW 10 KT.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEEDS BELOW 10 KT BEHIND THE
LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON
KMD/IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR. LAKE BREEZES FAIRLY LIKELY EACH
AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...SCHC SHRA. MVFR CIGS PSBL.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
224 PM CDT
CONTINUED QUIET CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES WITH ONSHORE FLOW WILL OCCUR IN NEARSHORE
AREAS. APART FROM THESE LAKE BREEZES...THERE WILL BE VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTIONS AT TIMES. A COLD FRONT WILL INCH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
LAKE ON MONDAY. AS THIS WEAKENS...IT WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO RETURN OVER THE LAKE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
300 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014
A weak upper low evident on satellite in southeast Iowa, and an
associated shortwave trough rotating to the east of the low will be
responsible for a patch of mid level clouds in west central IL this
evening. Persistent radar returns are associated with these clouds,
but plenty of low level dry air is resulting in nothing more than
scattered sprinkles. These will persist in a few areas west of I-55
early this evening, but are expected to fade quickly.
The upper low will slowly drift toward the southwest, into NW
Missouri by daybreak. Many of the short range models have finally
latched on to the idea that mid level clouds will increase with the
upper low overnight in west central IL. The rest of central and
eastern IL will be mostly clear overnight with low temperatures in
the lower to middle 50s. Slightly warmer temperatures are
anticipated west of a Peoria-Springfield line where more clouds are
expected.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014
A large scale high pressure ridge centered over the plains states
through the Midwest and a 500 mb closed low centered just west of
Illinois will be the main weather features through the weekend.
The 500 mb low is expected to remain stalled through the weekend
providing weak lift and low level convergence. The result will be
above normal temperatures and periods of cloudiness but very
little if any chance for precipitation. The warm air mass over the
region will remain well into next week with high temperatures
reaching near 80 degrees each day. The large scale pattern is
expected to shift toward the middle of next week providing the
first opportunity for any significant chance of precipitation. The
bulk of operational and ensemble models shift the high pressure
ridge to the east coast with low pressure troughing pushing into
the Rockies or northern Plains by midweek. As a result...a plume
of moist air will be able to approach the Midwest in southerly
return flow. A chance of precipitation returns to the forecast by
Wednesday and thursday as a result...although temperatures
continue above normal with no significant cooling likely by then.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014
Stagnent pattern over region this afternoon with weak upper wave over
Mississippi Valley becoming cutoff and embedded in strong mid-
level ridging. Just enough lift and moisture with this wave to
produce mid-level clouds with occasional CIGs mostly above 8 Kft.
A few sprinkles were noted at KBRL this morning, but associated
cloud and reflectivity band is slowly pushing east into drier air
and will likely not produce pcpn as far east as KPIA or KSPI.
NAM and HRRR move cloud band east to U.S. 51 overnight and will
reflect a high CIG at KBMI and KDEC after 03z. As low cuts off and
retrogrades southwest, lift weakens over Illinois and mid-level
clouds begin to dissipate on Friday.
Some minor concerns with potential for reduced vsbys in BR toward
sunrise, particularly at KCMI where cloudiness should be
scattered. For now will leave out, but will monitor incoming model
data closely.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...BARKER/MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
113 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...
913 AM CDT
FORECAST UPDATED TO HOLD ONTO MORE CLOUD COVER THROUGH TODAY AND TO
NUDGE DOWN TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT...NAMELY IN FAR NORTHERN AND
NORTHEAST IL. GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SHORT
WAVE CIRCULATION DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS IA THIS MORNING. A POCKET
OF WARM-AIR ADVECTION ABOVE 10KFT IS SUPPORTING A BLANKET OF
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME WIDELY PATCHY SPRINKLES. THE 12Z
DVN SOUNDING REVEALED THIS SATURATION AROUND 7KFT THICK. THAT
GREAT OF DEPTH ALONG WITH THE CONTINUED LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT THE
CLOUDS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SOME THINNING AS
THE SHORT WAVE DAMPENS AND LIFT WEAKENS.
TEMPERATURES IN SOME PLACES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE BUT IT WONT
TAKE MUCH THINNING FOR THAT TO EASILY BE MADE UP...SO HAVE ONLY
INCHED DOWN HIGHS WHERE WE EXPECT THE CLOUDS THE LONGEST. A LAKE
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON SUCH AS RECENT DAYS.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
248 AM CDT
SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXCEPT FOR
ALONG THE LAKE WHERE A LAKE BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPS AROUND 70. THE
FORECAST LOOKS SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN COOLER EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW FORMS OVERHEAD TODAY AND RETROGRADES WEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RULE
WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. SCT TO BKN CIRRUS IS EXPECTED WHICH
MAY LIMIT HIGH TEMPS. KNOCKED TEMPS DOWN BY A DEGREE OR SO...BUT
STILL THINKING WE WILL SEE MID TO UPPER 70S. A LAKE BREEZE IS
EXPECTED WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE LAKE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70. OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE BREEZE...WINDS WILL BE WEAK AND
VARIABLE.
CIRRUS THINS OVERNIGHT AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
DOWNTOWN...AND THEN IN THE LOWER 50S OUTSIDE OF THE CITY.
FRIDAY LOOKS PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE
EXPECTED. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE A TOUCH STRONGER AND OUT OF THE SE OR
E. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING WEST...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND
THEREFORE LOOKING AT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. COULD SEE 80S ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-80.
JEE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BROAD MID-LVL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEAKEN. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A CUTOFF MID-LVL FEATURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS FRI/SAT...THEN WEAKENS BY SUN. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A
TROUGH DEVELOPING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIME...WHICH COULD ACT AS A BLOCK TO THE RIDGING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FROM DISSOLVING TOO MUCH. NONETHELESS...THE CONTINUED
PATTERN OF DRY WITH SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. WEAK FLOW NEAR THE SFC WILL ALSO AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FREQUENT AFTN LAKE BREEZES AND HELP TO KEEP
ADJACENT LAND SLIGHTLY COOLER. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT SOME
PRECIP COULD RETURN MID NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS IS CURRENTLY A VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE SETUP.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTN WITH EAST WINDS BEHIND IT. ANOTHER LAKE
BREEZE TOMORROW AFTN.
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
WINDS BEHIND THE LAKE BREEZE HAVE ALL GENERALLY BEEN 6-8 KT...AND
HAVE NO REASON TO BELIEVE THAT WINDS WILL GET ANY STRONGER ONCE
THE LAKE BREEZE PUSHES INTO ORD/MDW. LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW WHICH MAY ENCOURAGE A BIT STRONGER LAKE BREEZE...BUT AT
THIS TIME IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WINDS STAY BELOW 10 KT.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEEDS BELOW 10 KT BEHIND THE
LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR. LAKE BREEZES FAIRLY LIKELY EACH
AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...SCHC SHRA. MVFR CIGS PSBL.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
248 AM CDT
DAILY LAKE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR THE OPEN
WATERS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E TO SE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT LESS THAN 10 KT.
S TO SE WINDS ARND 10 KT ESTABLISH THEMSELVES ACROSS THE LAKE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES DOWN THE LAKE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH WINDS BECOMING E TO NE 10-15 KT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1201 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM CDT THU SEP 25 2014
Updated the forecast to reflect the trends in satellite and radar.
The latest water vapor satellite loop shows an upper low in
northeast Iowa slowly retrograding toward south central Iowa. The
short range models handle this feature fairly well, but their
associated mid level moisture fields are not the best at depicting
the mid level clouds across much of central and eastern IL this
morning - with the exception of the new 12z NAM. Thus, increased the
cloud cover through early tonight and shaved a few degrees off
temperatures.
Also introduced scattered sprinkles into the forecast west of a
Peoria-Springfield line for this afternoon. Radar indicated a
rather persistant area of showers associated with a mid-level
shortwave trough. However, with the retrograding upper low the
eastward extent of this will be limited to mainly west central IL.
The 12z ILX sounding was also quite dry in the lower levels of the
atmosphere, so very little rain will make it to the ground, so
scattered sprinkles was mentioned instead of showers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU SEP 25 2014
Mid and high clouds continue to move across the western half of the
CWA early this morning. While this area of clouds moves across the
area, the mid clouds scatter out and dissipate, so clouds are a
little thinner in the east and southeast. These clouds could hinder
any warm up but still expecting high temps today to be the same as
yesterday, in the upper 70s. Light southeast winds will also
continue.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU SEP 25 2014
Energy associated with the wave currently over the Midwest lingering
over the region and keeping an unsettled disturbance aloft just to
the west but remaining rather quiet through the end of the week.
Warm days and cool overnights continue as the max temps hover in the
upper 70s/near 80. The solution for the pattern shift at the end of
the weekend is slowly coming into focus. Models persist in keeping
the disturbance over the region into the weekend...developing more
precip as an interaction with that wave and warm and higher RH air
pushing in to the southern rim of the sfc high for the first part of
next week. ECMWF and GFS coming together with slowly with the GFS
developing more precip like the ECMWF, but ECMWF is also following
suit with the GFS for keeping the majority of the precip south of
ILX. Other than some slights and low chance pops in the southeast,
the forecast remains mainly dry until the kicker wave/trof moves
into the Plains on Thurs night. The extended starting to look a bit
messy for the end of next week with some pretty significant timing
differences. Since well out in Day 8, forecast will remain
conservative.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014
Stagnent pattern over region this afternoon with weak upper wave over
Mississippi Valley becoming cutoff and embedded in strong mid-
level ridging. Just enough lift and moisture with this wave to
produce mid-level clouds with occasional CIGs mostly above 8 Kft.
A few sprinkles were noted at KBRL this morning, but associated
cloud and reflectivity band is slowly pushing east into drier air
and will likely not produce pcpn as far east as KPIA or KSPI.
NAM and HRRR move cloud band east to U.S. 51 overnight and will
reflect a high CIG at KBMI and KDEC after 03z. As low cuts off and
retrogrades southwest, lift weakens over Illinois and mid-level
clouds begin to dissipate on Friday.
Some minor concerns with potential for reduced vsbys in BR toward
sunrise, particularly at KCMI where cloudiness should be
scattered. For now will leave out, but will monitor incoming model
data closely.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...BARKER/MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1252 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1245 PM UPDATE...MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE CLOUD COVER AND POP. IT
APPEARS THAT ALL PRECIP IS GOING TO STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA
WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE HERE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. I STILL KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THERE FOR TONIGHT ALTHOUGH IF ANY RETURNS DO MAKE
IT THAT FAR NORTH IT WILL MOST LIKELY JUST BE VIRGA. MAIN IMPACT
FOR THIS STORM FOR US IS THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE
CIRROSTRATUS.
1000 AM UPDATE...JUST MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES BASED ON CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS. MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST PUSHES NORTHWARD.
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD GRIDS AND MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO DEW POINTS.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH ANY
PRECIP THIS EVENING REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH PER LATEST
TRENDS...OBSERVATIONS AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.
PREV DISC...
MESOSCALE MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE TRACK AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COASTAL LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. WILL KEEP VERY LOW
POPS ALONG OUR SOUTHERNMOST BORDER IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ADJACENT
OFFICES. MOISTURE FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS OUR REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF MAINLY AC AND CS. HAVING SAID
THAT...VERY DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR REGION AS NOTED BY
THE 00Z GYX SOUNDING AND THE EXTREMELY LOW DEW POINTS ON THE
SUMMIT OF MOUNT WASHINGTON.
EXPECT INLAND VALLEYS TO CONTINUE TO HAVE FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING...BEFORE THE WEAKENING SEPTEMBER SUN MIXES THINGS OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
LATEST HRRR RUN BRINGS MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF VERY LIGHT RAIN
INTO NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS...JUST SOUTH OF OUR BORDER THIS
EVENING...BEFORE BEGINNING TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD ONE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP VERY LOW POPS OVER
SOUTHERNMOST AREAS NEAR THE MASS BORDER THIS PACKAGE ONCE AGAIN.
ON FRIDAY...EXPECT A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES TO
BEGIN. WIDESPREAD 70S WILL BE THE RULE...EVEN ALONG THE COAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE DRY AIR BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGE ALSO SLIDES EAST WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BENEATH THE RIDGE. EXPECT DAILY HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE RISING THROUGH SUNDAY... WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY
REACHING 80 DEGREES IN A FEW PLACES.
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. THERE WILL BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ALONG THE FRONT BUT OVERALL THE MOISTURE CONNECTION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IS LIMITED SO DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OR
HEAVY RAIN. EASTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY KEEPS TEMPERATURES EVEN
COOLER... BUT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL
TO THE SOUTH SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE DOING A BETTER JOB DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THAN THE
GFS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN CANADA AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES... KEEPING SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EXCEPT FOR SOME VALLEY
FOG WITH A PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THIS MORNING AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...WILL HAVE NIGHTLY FOG AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD (AND
OCCASIONALLY CONCORD) BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS WITH LOW PRESSURE AND STRONGEST GRADIENT
REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF OUR COASTAL WATERS.
LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEP WINDS
LIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
KISTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
258 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY AND DAMP WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A COASTAL TROUGH LINGERS NEAR THE COAST. A WARMER AND DRIER
PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL RETURN NORTHWARD
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE CLOUDINESS AND INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM THURSDAY...COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS STALLED OFFSHORE WITH
WEAK SURFACE WAVE/LOW EXITING NORTHEAST. ANOTHER WEAK LOW IS
APPARENT OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL...ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COASTAL TROUGH. AS THIS LOW MOVES NORTH ALONG THE TROUGH IT WILL
TRY TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY ONSHORE...BUT A FEW FACTORS MAKE THIS
UNLIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN THE EAST COAST
FROM NEW ENGLAND WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...AND AT TIMES EVEN A LITTLE
WEST OF DUE NORTH...HELPING KEEP THE BOUNDARY AWAY FROM THE COAST.
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND THE WEAK
SURFACE WAVE EXITING NORTHEAST WILL ALSO WORK TO ENHANCE NORTHERLY
FLOW.
WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN FARTHER OFFSHORE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN DECREASES. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT HEAVY STRATIFORM
RAIN IS LESS LIKELY. IT APPEARS THE AREA MOST FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. AS THE HIGH BUILDS DOWN THE COAST THE
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED...INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.
THIS WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL AS WELL AS KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPPER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM...VERY GRADUALLY PUSHING THE COASTAL TROUGH AND ITS
ATTENDANT MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE PICTURE AS WE MOVE
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WASH OUT DURING
THIS PERIOD AS IT PUSHES SOUTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO CONTINUE TO
SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN ON FRIDAY...SO EXPECT CONTINUED
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE CWA AND A GRADIENT OF POPS
WITH THE BEST CHANCES NEARER THE COAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE WELL
INLAND. WEATHER CONTINUES TO IMPROVE ON SATURDAY AS P/W VALUES
FINALLY DIP BACK BELOW 2 INCHES. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY THOUGH...SO EXPECT
EXTENSIVE FIELDS OF CU TO TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WHEREVER WE
DO GET BREAKS IN THE STRATUS...ALONG WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER RIDGE ALIGNED
UP THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY WILL PRODUCE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AIR SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO CLEAR THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA LEAVING ANY LINGERING MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTH. THEREFORE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS WARMING
INTO THE 80S MOST PLACES.
BY MONDAY THE RIDGE WILL SLIP SOUTH AND WEAKEN AS SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE DEEPER LAYER SW FLOW
OF MOISTURE AND INCREASED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. PCP WATER VALUES AS
LOW AS AN INCH ON SUNDAY WILL BE BACK UP TO 2 INCHES PLUS BY LATER
ON MONDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AND
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUES. SFC LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY
FINALLY SHIFTING OFF SHORE BY WED MORNING. EXPECT BEST CHC OF MORE
WIDESPREAD PCP THROUGH TUES AS THIS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH.
SHOULD SEE DRYING ON BACK END OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH WED...AT
LEAST THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. AS SFC HIGH BUILDS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING OUT BUT ECMWF IS HINTING AT ANOTHER
WEDGE SETTING UP FOR MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMO TO START BUT OVERALL NOT STRAYING TO FAR FROM
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS CLOSER TO 60.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...IFR CIGS WILL BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTN
BEFORE DROPPING BACK DOWN BELOW 1KFT TONIGHT. SURFACE OBS INDICATE
CIGS ARE GRADUALLY LIFTING...SO WOULD EXPECT TO START SEEING TAF
SITES IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 19-20Z. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IS
KEEPING THE COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE...AND THUS HAVE REMOVED -RA
FROM THE TAFS. THE HRRR SHOWS LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL PCPN FOR THE
TERMINALS TODAY...EVEN ALONG THE COAST. NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KT
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. THE WEDGE REASSERTS ITSELF TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 6-10 KT OVERNIGHT...WHICH
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERS THE FOG THREAT AS COMPARED TO THIS MORNING.
BUT IFR STRATUS WILL FILL BACK IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF FRI MORNING...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE
VFR SAT/SUN. CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MON AND TUE. MON.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM THURSDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL START INCREASING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY REACHING 15 TO 20 KT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING DOWN THE COAST STRENGTHENS. THE STRONGER HIGH WILL HELP
PUSH THE COASTAL TROUGH EAST OF THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
SPREAD 15 TO 20 KT NORTHERLY FLOW OVER ALL ZONES. THE ENHANCED
NORTHERLY FLOW COULD PUSH SEAS IN SOME AREAS TO 5 FT...MAINLY IN THE
VICINITY OF FRYING PAN SHOALS AND EAST OF CAPE ROMAIN. AT THIS POINT
WILL NOT RAISE A SCEC FOR ANY ZONE...BUT SHOULD NORTHERLY SURGE END
UP A LITTLE STRONGER...EITHER DUE TO INCREASED STRENGTH OF SURFACE
HIGH OR MORE INTENSIFICATION OF WEAK LOW MOVING NORTH ALONG THE
TROUGH...SCEC HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15 KT RANGE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED ON FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
6 FT SEAS TOUCHING OUR OUTER WATERS...OTHERWISE MOST PLACES WILL
SEE 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH GRADIENT RELAXING ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT
FROM N-NE AROUND 15 KTS TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION....10 KTS OR
LESS. BY MONDAY LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
TROUGH ALIGNED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE S-SE AHEAD OF TROUGH AND N-NE TO THE
WEST OF TROUGH AXIS. TROUGH SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH TUES WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY ON THE BACK END BY
LATE TUES AND CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT EARLY
SUNDAY WILL SUBSIDE IN LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH MONDAY. MAY SEE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SEAS IN INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS BY WED
MORNING.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...REK/MBB
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...REK/III/RGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
210 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY AND DAMP WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COASTAL
TROUGH LINGERS NEAR THE COAST. AS THE HIGH BUILDS WEST INTO THE
CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND...A WARMER AND DRIER PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED. THIS MOISTURE WILL RETURN NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE CLOUDINESS AND RAIN CHANCES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM THURSDAY...COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS STALLED OFFSHORE WITH
WEAK SURFACE WAVE/LOW EXITING NORTHEAST. ANOTHER WEAK LOW IS
APPARENT OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL...ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH. AS THIS LOW MOVES NORTH ALONG THE TROUGH IT WILL TRY TO PUSH
THE BOUNDARY ONSHORE...BUT A FEW FACTORS MAKE THIS UNLIKELY. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN THE EAST COAST FROM NEW ENGLAND
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...AND AT TIMES EVEN A LITTLE WEST OF DUE
NORTH...HELPING KEEP THE BOUNDARY AWAY FROM THE COAST. DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND THE WEAK SURFACE WAVE
EXITING NORTHEAST WILL ALSO WORK TO ENHANCE NORTHERLY FLOW.
WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN FARTHER OFFSHORE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN DECREASES. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT HEAVY STRATIFORM RAIN
IS LESS LIKELY. IT APPEARS THE AREA MOST FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN
WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. AS THE HIGH BUILDS DOWN THE COAST THE GRADIENT
BECOMES MORE DEFINED...INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. THIS WILL
LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL AS WELL AS KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
60S WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPPER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES STARTS
MEETING UP WITH SAME OVER BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY WHILE WEAK TROUGHINESS
SITS OFF THE NORTHEAST AND A WEAK FEATURE CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW
MEANDERS OVER IOWA. THIS CAUSES A MAINLY LATE-DAY WEAK PUSH OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER INTO THE CAROLINAS LEADING TO SOME LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION. SOME MINOR RAIN CHANCES ARE TOUGH TO RULE
OUT AND THEY SHOULD FAVOR COASTAL AS WELL AS SOUTHERN ZONES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONABLE NORMS IN WHAT SHOULD
BE A TREND TOWARDS DECREASING CLOUD COVER ALBEIT SOMEWHAT GRADUAL.
A CONTINUATION OF ALL OF THESE TRENDS HEADING INTO SATURDAY SHOULD
YIELD SOME PLEASANT WEATHER WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND A BIT OF A BOOST
TO THE WARMTH. WIND WILL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG MAYBE
THE SC COASTAL ZONES FOR A SPRINKLE OR TWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...A WEAKENING AND VERY NARROW RIDGE ALOFT UP AND
DOWN THE EAST COAST PAIRED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
ON SUNDAY SHOULD MEAN ONE LAST DAY WITHOUT MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES.
BY MONDAY THE DISTURBANCE THAT HAD BEEN OVER IOWA DURING THE SHORT
TERM PROGRESSES EASTWARD WHILE STRINGING SOUTH TO THE SOUTH. THIS
INDUCES A GRADUAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE COLD FRONT WASHES NORTHWARD. LOOK
FOR A SOUTH-TO-NORTH INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND MINOR RAIN CHANCES.
SHOULD HIGH PRESSURE START WEDGING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AS
IMPLIED BY THE 00Z GFS AND THE (OLD) 12Z ECMWF THEN A STATIONARY
FRONT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND THE LATE PERIOD/MID WEEK
MAY TURN QUITE RAINY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...IFR CIGS WILL BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTN
BEFORE DROPPING BACK DOWN BELOW 1KFT TONIGHT. SURFACE OBS INDICATE
CIGS ARE GRADUALLY LIFTING...SO WOULD EXPECT TO START SEEING TAF
SITES IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 19-20Z. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IS KEEPING
THE COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE...AND THUS HAVE REMOVED -RA FROM THE
TAFS. THE HRRR SHOWS LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL PCPN FOR THE TERMINALS
TODAY...EVEN ALONG THE COAST. NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY. THE WEDGE REASSERTS ITSELF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHWARD AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS
INCREASING TO 6-10 KT OVERNIGHT...WHICH SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERS THE FOG
THREAT AS COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. BUT IFR STRATUS WILL FILL BACK
IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF FRI MORNING...WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR
SAT/SUN. CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MON AND TUE.
MON.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM THURSDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL START INCREASING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY REACHING 15 TO 20 KT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING DOWN THE COAST STRENGTHENS. THE STRONGER HIGH WILL HELP
PUSH THE COASTAL TROUGH EAST OF THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
SPREAD 15 TO 20 KT NORTHERLY FLOW OVER ALL ZONES. THE ENHANCED
NORTHERLY FLOW COULD PUSH SEAS IN SOME AREAS TO 5 FT...MAINLY IN THE
VICINITY OF FRYING PAN SHOALS AND EAST OF CAPE ROMAIN. AT THIS POINT
WILL NOT RAISE A SCEC FOR ANY ZONE...BUT SHOULD NORTHERLY SURGE END
UP A LITTLE STRONGER...EITHER DUE TO INCREASED STRENGTH OF SURFACE
HIGH OR MORE INTENSIFICATION OF WEAK LOW MOVING NORTH ALONG THE
TROUGH...SCEC HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...A VERY WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WASHES OUT ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A BIT OF PENETRATION BY HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER
INTO THE CAROLINAS. RESULT LOCALLY IS A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW GENERALLY
IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL RUN 3 TO 4 FT FOR THE MOST PART
SAVE FOR ABOUT A FOOT LOWER FOR AMZ254 DUE TO WAVE SHADOWING. TOUGH
TO RULE OUT THE STRAY 5 FT WAVE OUT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANY CAUTIONARY HEADLINES. HIGH REMAINS ON SATURDAY WELL TO
OUR NORTH WHILE THE GRADIENT OFF THE COAST BECOMES A LITTLE POORLY
DEFINED. WIND MAY LIGHTEN AND VEER EVER SO SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY LATE
IN THE DAY AS WELL AS HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WINDS TO WEAKEN ON
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH PULLS BACK JUST A BIT
WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL NEVER
DIRECTLY BE A PLAYER LOCALLY BUT ITS WARM ADVECTION ZONE MAY LEAD TO
A FRONT DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. AS THIS BOUNDARY TRIES-BUT
LARGELY FAILS-TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD THE LOCAL FLOW MAY BACK FROM SE
TO A MORE EASTERLY/ONSHORE DIRECTION. THE TROUGHINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT MAY EAST THE GRADIENT TO WHERE WIND SPEEDS FALL TO
AROUND 10 KT. SEAS COULD RELAX TO JUST 2 FT ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR