Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 09/24/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
851 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 841 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014
ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS UPDATE TIME. FIRST BATCH OF
SHOWERS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND NO LIGHTNING BEING REPORTED. SECONDARY
BATCH NOW OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO WITH QUITE A BIT OF LIGHTNING
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROF AND 60KT JET STREAK. THIS WILL ALL
PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
END WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE KICKS IN BEHIND TROF.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 452 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014
TROUGH PASSING OVER COLORADO TODAY. MODELS ARE PRETTY GOOD WITH
THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS AS TO
THE PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION. NAM COMPARES WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN
PRETTY MISERABLY...GFS HAS TOO LITTLE THIS MORNING AND TOO MUCH
THIS EVENING. HRRR LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE BRINGING THE UPSTREAM
BATCH OF SHOWERS OVER DENVER AT MIDDAY...THEN GENERATING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PART OF THE PLAINS
IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THERE IS SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT
BEHIND THE TROUGH. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH THIS IDEA...THOUGH I
HAVE SOME RESERVATIONS ABOUT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. PLAINS REMAIN
COOL AND DRY AND WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE INCREASING THERE IS NOT
BETTER MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE UNTIL YOU GET TO TEXAS. SO THE
MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO BE COMING WITH THE SHOWER BAND. THERE WILL
BE SOME OF THIS GOING ON...BUT MODEL FORECAST MOISTURE ON THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY LOOKS OVERDONE.
MOISTURE UNCERTAINTY IMPACTS THE PROSPECTS FOR STRONG STORMS.
WIND PROFILE IN THE MODELS IS GOOD FOR SUPERCELLS ALONG AND BEHIND
THE TROUGH AXIS ON THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...NAM HAS CAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG WHICH WOULD PRESENT A DECENT THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER. BUT THIS IS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S WHICH LOOKS
PRETTY UNLIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH WHERE
ANY REMAINING SURFACE MOISTURE SHOULD BE MIXING OUT. THERE ALSO
MAY BE MORE OF A WIND SHIFT THAN THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AS A
DENVER CYCLONE BOUNDARY THAT GETS PICKED UP WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
AND MOVES EAST TURNING INTO A DRYLINE SEEMS QUITE POSSIBLE. NAM/GFS
MOS DEW POINTS OF 45-50 ONLY GIVE CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG...AND I
THINK THIS IS MORE LIKELY. GIVEN THE WIND PROFILE AND FAST MOVING
STORMS...MAYBE STILL A SMALL WIND THREAT.
FOR TONIGHT THERE MAY BE SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION IN LINGERING LIFT
IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA FOR A WHILE...BUT SUBSIDENCE AND
CLEARING SHOULD BE COVERING THE AREA BY MORNING. COULD BE A
MOUNTAIN WAVE SETUP WITH SOME WARMING ALOFT BY 12Z...THOUGH SPEEDS
ARE MARGINAL SO PROBABLY JUST A BIT GUSTIER THAN WOULD OTHERWISE
BE EXPECTED. WITH JUST A LITTLE COOLING ALOFT...SNOW LEVEL SHOULD
STAY ABOVE TIMBERLINE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE
NORTH AND EAST WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION.
ENOUGH MID LEVEL INSTBY AND MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND FAR NORTHEAST
PLAINS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT
BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A DRY AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. BY FRIDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO
SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH A WEAK SLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE STATE.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL START TO ADVECT BACK INTO COLORADO. SOME
POPS GET INTRODUCED BACK INTO THE HIGH COUNTRY BY FRIDAY
AFTN...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR THE REST OF
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 841 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN NOW SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS APA/DEN SO HAVE
ADJUSTED LATEST TAFS FOR THESE TRENDS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
BETWEEN 16-17Z WITH A BREAK IN THE PRECIP BEFORE NOON. EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROF
MOVES OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY GIVEN CURRENT THUNDERSTORMS NOW OVER
WESTERN CO.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
452 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 452 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014
TROUGH PASSING OVER COLORADO TODAY. MODELS ARE PRETTY GOOD WITH
THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS AS TO
THE PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION. NAM COMPARES WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN
PRETTY MISERABLY...GFS HAS TOO LITTLE THIS MORNING AND TOO MUCH
THIS EVENING. HRRR LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE BRINGING THE UPSTREAM
BATCH OF SHOWERS OVER DENVER AT MIDDAY...THEN GENERATING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PART OF THE PLAINS
IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THERE IS SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT
BEHIND THE TROUGH. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH THIS IDEA...THOUGH I
HAVE SOME RESERVATIONS ABOUT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. PLAINS REMAIN
COOL AND DRY AND WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE INCREASING THERE IS NOT
BETTER MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE UNTIL YOU GET TO TEXAS. SO THE
MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO BE COMING WITH THE SHOWER BAND. THERE WILL
BE SOME OF THIS GOING ON...BUT MODEL FORECAST MOISTURE ON THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY LOOKS OVERDONE.
MOISTURE UNCERTAINTY IMPACTS THE PROSPECTS FOR STRONG STORMS.
WIND PROFILE IN THE MODELS IS GOOD FOR SUPERCELLS ALONG AND BEHIND
THE TROUGH AXIS ON THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...NAM HAS CAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG WHICH WOULD PRESENT A DECENT THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER. BUT THIS IS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S WHICH LOOKS
PRETTY UNLIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH WHERE
ANY REMAINING SURFACE MOISTURE SHOULD BE MIXING OUT. THERE ALSO
MAY BE MORE OF A WIND SHIFT THAN THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AS A
DENVER CYCLONE BOUNDARY THAT GETS PICKED UP WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
AND MOVES EAST TURNING INTO A DRYLINE SEEMS QUITE POSSIBLE. NAM/GFS
MOS DEW POINTS OF 45-50 ONLY GIVE CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG...AND I
THINK THIS IS MORE LIKELY. GIVEN THE WIND PROFILE AND FAST MOVING
STORMS...MAYBE STILL A SMALL WIND THREAT.
FOR TONIGHT THERE MAY BE SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION IN LINGERING LIFT
IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA FOR A WHILE...BUT SUBSIDENCE AND
CLEARING SHOULD BE COVERING THE AREA BY MORNING. COULD BE A
MOUNTAIN WAVE SETUP WITH SOME WARMING ALOFT BY 12Z...THOUGH SPEEDS
ARE MARGINAL SO PROBABLY JUST A BIT GUSTIER THAN WOULD OTHERWISE
BE EXPECTED. WITH JUST A LITTLE COOLING ALOFT...SNOW LEVEL SHOULD
STAY ABOVE TIMBERLINE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE STORM SYSTEM WLL PASS TO THE
NORTH AND EAST WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION.
ENOUGH MID LEVEL INSTBY AND MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND FAR NORTHEAST
PLAINS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT
BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A DRY AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. BY FRIDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO
SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH A WEAK SLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE STATE.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL START TO ADVECT BACK INTO COLORADO. SOME
POPS GET INTRODUCED BACK INTO THE HIGH COUNTRY BY FRIDAY
AFTN...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR THE REST OF
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF
CA/NV BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 452 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH INSTRUMENT
APPROACHES TO KDEN MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THIS IS BETWEEN 16Z AND 22Z. SOUTH WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO NORTH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY AS
A DENVER CYCLONE STRENGTHENS AND THEN SHIFTS EAST. THIS PATTERN
COULD BE DISRUPTED WITH WIND SHIFTS DUE TO SHOWER ACTIVITY
HOWEVER.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1110 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014
UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEVADA WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW LIFTING INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOTED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS WHICH WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME LIGHT ECHOES OVER
THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND RATON MESA AREA...BUT NOTHING TOO ORGANIZED
AT THIS TIME. MODELS ARE ALL STILL GENERATING A DECENT BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT BUT
FEEL THEY MAY BE OVER DOING THINGS A BIT. FOR NOW HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE SAN JUAN RANGE...WITH DECREASING
CHANCES AS YOU HEAD EAST INTO THE PLAINS. MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WELL THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...SO WE WILL
SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MOZLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014
...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...MARGINAL
SEVERE POSSIBLE ON PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
CURRENTLY...
DRIER AIR NOTED OVER PLAINS AS DWPTS OVER FAR EC COLO IN THE
30S...WITH U40S/50S ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. MTNS MAINLY IN THE
40S...WITH MUCH RICHER MOISTURE SW OF THE FCST AREA. AREA OF RAIN
OVER THE CONTDVD EARLIER HAS DISSIPATED...ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF THE HIGHER TRRN. A FEW ISOLD
POPS WERE NOTED OVER FAR N EL PASO COUNTY. A FEW CG FLASHES WERE
NOTED WITH THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION...BUT THE BRUNT OF THE INTENSE
LTG ACTIVITY WAS STILL ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH BACK INTO E UTAH.
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE
CONTDVD...ESPECIALLY THE SAN JUANS. ALL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING BEST
CHANCE OF HEAVY PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE SW FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN
JUANS. MOST OF THE PRGD HEAVY PRECIP WILL BE IN NWS GJT AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY...BUT SOME OF THIS PRECIP WILL LIKELY MAKE IT OVER
THE DIVIDE. WILL WAIT TIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO DECIDE IF A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS NEEDED. PROS FOR A WATCH IS MODEL FCST...BUT WE (NWS
PUB) REALLY HAVE NOT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVER THIS REGION SO SOILS
ARE NOT ALL THAT SATURATED.
18Z NAM HAS BEEN SHOWING LOTS OF PRECIP OVER THE GREATER PIKES PEAK
REGION BUT I AM DISCOUNTING THIS DUE TO ITS POOR PERFORMANCE THE
LAST SEVERAL RUNS. RAP GUIDANCE IS QUITE A BIT DRIER. GFS ALSO A LOT
DRIER PIKES PEAK REGION.
OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...I DONT THINK THE PLAINS WILL SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF PRECIP THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE...AND ACROSS
N EL PASO COUNTY...BUT THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY TONIGHT
GIVEN THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW.
TOMORROW....
TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. IT APPEARS NOW THAT THE
SFC TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN COLORADO DURING PRIME HEATING AND WE WILL
LIKELY HAVE A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. SHEAR LOOKS GOOD BUT CAPE LOOKS
MARGINAL SO SVR THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL. QUITE A FEW CLOUDS MAY BE
OVER THE AREA TOMORROW AND THAT COULD LIMIT HEATING.
MOUNTAINS SHOULD GRADUALLY DRY OUT TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014
MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK E ACROSS WY AND INTO THE
DAKOTAS MON EVE...GRADUALLY BRINGING AN END TO PCPN FROM WEST TO
EAST. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO BECOME ISOLATED BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE FAR E PLAINS...THEN COME TO AN END EARLY TUE MORN ALONG THE
CO/KS BORDER.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND MAX TEMPS IN
THE 80S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE FAR SE CORNER AS WELL AS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS...INCLUDING THE S SANGRES.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE TO THE
EAST...AS AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL START TO DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE UP
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO...WHICH IN TURN INCREASES
POPS FOR THE MTS AND WESTERN AREAS FROM THU AFTN ONWARD. A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM THU THROUGH FRI...THOUGH TEMPS WILL
STILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON MOVING THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE PAC NW AND GREAT BASIN ON SAT...THROUGH THE
EC IS JUST A BIT SLOWER. THE TROUGH DEEPENS WITH A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING BY SUN...WHICH THEN SLOWLY MOVES EAST TOWARD COLORADO.
THE EC HAS THIS LOW OVER NV...WHILE THE GFS HAS THIS LOW EDGING
INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF COLORADO...SO STILL SOME ROOM FOR
NEGOTIATION THERE. END RESULT IS THAT A COOLER PERIOD WITH INCREASED
CLOUDS AND PCPN COVERAGE IS FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...AND THE FINER
POINTS AND TIMING WILL HAVE TO BE REVISITED THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014
KALS...THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT WHICH MAY MOVE INTO
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. IF ONE OF THESE CELLS
MOVES OVER THE TERMINAL...IT COULD PRODUCE REDUCED VIS AND CIGS.
DO EXPECT CIGS TO FALL BY 08Z TONIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
INTO MONDAY MORNING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
KCOS AND KPUB...LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TERMINALS TONIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO
LOWERED CIGS...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS WHERE THEY WILL LIKELY FALL TO
MVFR TO IFR TONIGHT. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER ACTIVITY
TONIGHT...AS MODELS ARE OVER DOING IT RIGHT NOW...BUT LEFT VCSH IN
THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AT KCOS AND KPUB MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
STORMS. MOZLEY
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOZLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
145 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS TO THE
REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND. WE
COULD APPROACH RECORD WARMTH ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE W AS
ISALLOBARIC COUPLET SUPPORTS RAPID PRES RISES TO THE W AND FALLING
TO THE E AS LOW PRES SLIDES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. THIS SHIFT HAS
LEAD TO A DRYING TREND AND REDUCTION IN THE OVERALL FOG COVERAGE.
WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SPS/S AND ADVISORIES FOR THE TIME BEING
THOUGH AS THE ACTUAL FRONT IS NOW ONLY JUST E OF THE CT VALLEY
AND WILL TAKE 3-6 MORE HOURS TO CLEAR. OTHERWISE...FORECAST MAINLY
ON TRACK AS REMNANT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRY AS THEY REACH THE
DOWNSLOPING IN THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. WE SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST AND PASSING NEAR THE
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GET. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RHODE ISLAND FOR AT LEAST A TIME. IN
FACT...LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MA COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. NOT SURE IF
IT WILL GET THAT FAR NORTHWEST...BUT ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS NANTUCKET...
WHERE BETWEEN 0.50 TO PERHAPS UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
THE RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD WIND DOWN NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...ONCE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINLY BE DRY TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MIDNIGHT. WHILE SHEAR IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT. SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES...THEY WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. LOW
TEMPS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOWER 60S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...
A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY...MAY SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-
CUMULUS CLOUDS WORK INTO AT LEAST THE INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT STILL WILL
REACH BETWEEN 70 AND 75 ALONG HE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY GOOD
MIXING.
HIGH SURF...GIVEN LARGE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH COAST ON MONDAY. WE ISSUE HIGH SURF PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF SEPTEMBER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DIMINISHING WINDS AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. LOOKS LIKE
A PRETTY GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN MOST LOCALES. THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND OF BOSTON WILL BE THE MILD SPOT WITH THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE NEXT SATURDAY
OVERVIEW...
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY. THEN...MUCH ADO ABOUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS VERY STRONG AS IT IS PARKED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.
DETAILS... TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT ONLY
PARTLY SUNNY NW MA AND SW NH CLOSER TO SOME HIGHER 925 MB
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS THROUGH THU DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED ALONG WITH VERY DRY DEWPOINTS. AS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH APPROACHES...AM EXPECTING A DRAMATIC WARMUP FRI
AND ESPECIALLY SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN IS EVEN WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM +12C TUE...TO
+17C FRI... TO +19C OR +20C ON SAT... WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HAVE GONE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUMS FOR NEXT SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS SOARING TO 80 TO 85 ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RECORDS FOR THAT DAY INCLUDE 85 AT WORCESTER AND 86 AT BOTH BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS A HINT OF A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT/TROUGH
OVER NORTHEAST MA ON SAT BUT THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO DETRACT FROM
THE VERY WARM FORECAST...AS YET.
AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA AND AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO BE CAUSING PRECIPITATION IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD.
THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA ONLY GETS AS
FAR NORTHWARD AS OFF THE NJ COAST BY FRI...BEFORE RETREATING
SOUTHWARD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
WITH A MIX OF ALL CATEGORIES...EXPECT THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH
12Z WILL BE TOWARD VFR FROM W-E. TIMING IN TAFS MAY BE OFF BY AN
HOUR OR SO...BUT ONCE WINDS PICK UP AND SHIFT MORE W-NW VFR SHOULD
DOMINATE THEREAFTER.
TODAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER AT ACK THROUGH MID
MORNING. WINDS MAINLY WNW TODAY...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT
TIMES THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR.
WED...VFR
THU...VFR.
FRI...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FOR
SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BOSTON HARBOR.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SCA SEAS
ON THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND OUTER-WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA FOR A TIME
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO SOME OF THE NEARSHORE SOUNDS AND
WATERS. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THIS RIGHT NOW...
SO WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE...
TUE AND WED...SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY LINGER AT TIMES TUE AND WED OVER
THE WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A NORTHEAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 20 KT.
WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MAZ020>024.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MAZ006-007-014.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/GAF
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/GAF
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...DOODY/GAF
MARINE...FRANK/GAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
959 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014
.UPDATE...
THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL DISSIPATE
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT OVER GEORGIA AND ALABAMA DRIFTS SOUTHEAST OVER
THE REGION. AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT
CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LOT OF
MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE 12Z SOUNDING IS INDICATING
CLOSE TO 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH A VERY MOIST COLUMN
BELOW 500 MB. THERE HAS ONLY BEEN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
COASTLINE THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED WELL OFF
SHORE...BUT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OVER THE COASTLINE LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
MOVE EAST NORTHEAST AFFECTING MOST AREAS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THE LATEST HRRR COMPOSITE RADAR FORECAST HAS THE LARGEST MASS OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING INLAND JUST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY AROUND 17-18Z.
THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHES THEM INLAND. GRIDS LOOK ON
TRACK FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS FOR TODAY. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE MADE THEIR WAY ONSHORE NEAR SRQ THIS MORNING
BUT CONDITIONS REMAINED VFR. WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE MORNING AND VCTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY MVFR TO IFR WOULD BE MOST LIKELY
WITH THE TSRA LATER IN THE DAY. CALM TO LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS BECOME
SOUTH TO SW LATER THIS MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE SOME AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE
WEEK WITH PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA POSSIBLE. THE MAIN
HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE VICINITY
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 88 74 87 73 / 60 40 60 30
FMY 89 74 88 72 / 60 40 50 40
GIF 88 72 88 72 / 60 40 60 30
SRQ 87 73 86 73 / 60 40 60 40
BKV 88 68 88 68 / 60 40 60 30
SPG 86 75 86 75 / 60 40 60 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...74/WYNN
MARINE...69/CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
658 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. TUESDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NEAR
THE COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE IN THE SHORT TERM AS TEMPERATURES
HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WAKE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. IT APPEARS
THE FRONT HAS BEEN PUSHED OFFSHORE DUE TO CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND A
BUBBLE HIGH THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS. HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CLUSTERED ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT AS
ISENTROPIC ASSENT ATOP THE OFFSHORE FRONT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL GEORGIA. NEAR TERM POPS
HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 100 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST WITH 60-70
PERCENT INLAND. A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS
OF THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA...ESPECIALLY IN BERKELEY COUNTY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF COLD FROPA...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL FEATURE STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A PERSISTENT TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER COASTAL WATERS/CLOSE TO THE COAST AND A CUT-OFF
UPPER LOW MEANDERING OVER OR CLOSE TO THE REGION. THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WILL FAVOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS...BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND SOME DEGREE OF POPS MUCH OF THE TIME...TAPERED
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE INLAND TO CHANCE/LIKELY NEAR THE COAST.
CHANGES SHOULD REMAIN SUBTLE...AND FORECAST DETAILS INCLUDING
DEVIATIONS FROM THIS GENERAL SCENARIO WILL BE ADDRESSED WITHIN
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE UPCOMING NEAR
TERM PERIODS.
HIGHEST PWATS AND DEEPEST MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST.
HOWEVER...SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DEEP MOISTURE/AN ASSOCIATED
HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO PERIODICALLY BACK INTO COASTAL
COUNTIES...DEPENDING IN PART ON THE ORIENTATION/EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERHAPS ONE OF THE LONGEST HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE PATTERNS IS IN STORE
FOR THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE PERIODS. THE EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH MAINTAINS CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS...
BETTER RAIN CHANCES AND COOL TEMPS. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THERE ARE
LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEEP LONGWAVE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A GULF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY LIFT NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...-RA WILL PERSIST AT KCHS WITH A RISK FOR SHOWER IMMEDIATE
SHOWER IMPACTS LASTING TO ABOUT 03Z. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE OVERNIGHT SO ITS HARD TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY
WHEN SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINAL AFTER 03Z. WILL NOT CARRY
ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE A RISK. LARGE DISCREPANCIES ON HOW LOW CIGS WILL GET
OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST NAM AND LAV GUIDANCE KEEPS CIGS VFR WHILE
THE RUC CRASHES CIGS TO LIFR AFTER 06Z. VERY TOUGH CALL ON THIS.
OPTED TO A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH WITH PREVAILING LOW-END
MVFR CIGS 05-14Z WITH VFR THEREAFTER. AMENDMENTS WILL MOST
CERTAINLY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT AS TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT.
KSAV...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS GENERALLY ENDED...THOUGH LOW-END
SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL LINGER WEST AND NORTH OF THE TERMINAL
THROUGH 05Z. OPTED FOR A TEMPO GROUP FOR HIGH END MVFR VSBYS IN
-SHRA 02-05Z TO COVER. PREVAILING MVFR CIGS THEREAFTER WITH VFR
RETURNING BY 14Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THU FRI BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR
MVFR CEILINGS INCREASE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO AND
THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TURN
AROUND TO EVENTUALLY BECOME NORTHEASTERLY THANKS TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO THE NORTH. THE STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT A NOTEWORTHY SURGE LATE TONIGHT WITH ALMOST
ALL OF THE WATERS BECOMING 15-20 KT. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS MORE. ALSO...SINCE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL AFTER THE TONIGHT PERIOD...SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT
TONIGHT WITH A FEW 4 FOOTERS PERHAPS BLEEDING INTO THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS VERY LATE. THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EVENING...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING WIND
GUSTS OF 40 KT.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...A COASTAL TROUGH AND SOME DEGREE OF
MARINE LAYER INSTABILITY/MIXING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ELEVATED NORTHEAST WINDS/ASSOCIATED ELEVATED SEAS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TO ADDRESS THE INITIAL SURFACE OF STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS...RAISED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR ALL MARINE ZONES BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING NORTH...INCLUDING
CHARLESTON HARBOR...AND EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH. PER GUIDANCE
SIGNALS SUGGESTING A SUBTLE LULL IN WINDS/SEAS THURSDAY...ENDED ALL
ADVISORIES AT 5 AM THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH THAT ANY LULL WILL OCCUR...AND ADJUSTMENTS TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TIMES COULD BE NEEDED TOWARD MIDWEEK.
RIP CURRENTS...LOCAL GUIDANCE YIELDED A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS ON AREA BEACHES TUESDAY...MAINLY DUE TO STRONG ONSHORE
WINDS. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST LATE THIS WEEK...AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WILL RESULT
IN MODERATE CHANCES FOR SHALLOW COASTAL/SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SC COAST INCLUDING
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON. SINCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR A COMBINATION OF FRESH/SALT WATER FLOODING IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS
NEAR THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
IS INOPERABLE. IT IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE
RETURNED TO SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR AMZ330-352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR AMZ354-374.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
138 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014/
UPDATE...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE PRECIP WILL PLAY OUT LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. OVERALL HAVE CHOSEN TO SHOW IT CONTINUING TO
SINK SOUTHWARD...BUT DECREASE THE COVERAGE FROM SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED OVERNIGHT. HRRR EXPANDS AREA OF PRECIP BY 14Z WHILE THE
LOCAL WRF ISNT QUITE THAT BOLD. CONSIDERING HRRR HAS BEEN OVERDONE
THIS SUMMER OVERALL...HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE LOCAL WRF. POP
GRIDS MAY STILL BE A TAD UNDERDONE THOUGH FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
MADE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE CWA FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS VORT MAX MAY HELP TO INCREASE
CONVECTION.
PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED 317 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014/
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AT AFD TIME WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF IT. CAPE VALUES
ARE ON THE LOW END...GENERALLY BELOW 1500 J/KG ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA...AND BEST PVA IS ACTUALLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND DOES NOT
PUSH INTO GEORGIA REALLY UNTIL MONDAY SOMETIME. SO HAVE KEPT TREND
OF SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS WITH WORDING LIMITED TO ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER...ESPECIALLY SINCE WHAT CAPE MIGHT BE AROUND THIS
AFTERNOON QUICKLY DECREASES OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR STARTS FILTERING INTO
NORTH GEORGIA BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NEW RUNS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THIS SO LOW TEMPS TONIGHT NOT FORECAST QUITE AS COOL AS WITH EARLIER
FORECASTS.
CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WITH A PRETTY STRONG VORT LOBE SWINGING AROUND WITH THE SHARP TROUGH
ALOFT...EXPECT TO SEE A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THEN.
MUCAPES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 800-1500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
TOMORROW DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL ONE USES /NAM IS HIGHER AS USUAL/.
STILL HAVE LOW TO MID-RANGE CHANCE POPS AT BEST BUT WILL HAVE TO
REEVALUATE THIS OVERNIGHT.
DEEP-LAYER CAA BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY
EARLY TOMORROW ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...THOUGH THE CAA MODERATES EVER
SO SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE A MARKED DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW /5-10 DEGREES COOLER EXCEPT
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE FRONT WILL NOT HAVE QUITE MADE IT
THROUGH YET/ AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT /ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TONIGHT AGAIN EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN ZONES/. THE DECREASE
IN HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE VERY NOTICEABLE. ENJOY THE BEAUTIFUL FALL
WEATHER!
TDP
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 317 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014/
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK. PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW
OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WILL HELP INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER BY WEDNESDAY.
IN ADDITION...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND SPREAD W THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. INSTABILITY LOOKS MINIMAL...BUT AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
NLISTEMAA
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
STILL SOME SCATTERED SHRA ALONG FRONT TO DEAL WITH FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS SO WILL EXTEND TEMPO WITH THIS TAF SET. STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT DRIER AIR SHOULD
PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL SHRA DEVELOPMENT AND WILL KEEP ATL AREA
TERMINALS RAIN FREE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MCN WILL NOT BE SO LUCKY
WITH NOT ONLY BETTER SHRA POTENTIAL BUT TSRA AS WELL AND WILL KEEP
PROB30 FOR THEM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...CIGS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON SHRA POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 81 56 79 55 / 20 0 0 0
ATLANTA 80 57 79 57 / 20 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 74 48 76 51 / 5 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 78 52 80 55 / 5 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 84 59 83 61 / 20 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 77 55 77 55 / 5 0 0 0
MACON 85 58 83 59 / 30 0 0 0
ROME 79 50 81 54 / 0 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 80 52 80 55 / 20 0 0 0
VIDALIA 88 64 83 61 / 40 30 10 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
226 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014
.DISCUSSION...
135 AM CDT
SYNOPSIS...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WE WILL ALSO BE EXPERIENCING A SLOW WARMING
TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY AND THEN HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S BY LATE WEEK.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PUSHING EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AND IT WILL DRIFT EAST OVER THE
CWA TODAY. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS
MORNING AND BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK LAKE
BREEZE IS POSSIBLE IN COOK COUNTY LATE THIS AFTN. LOOKING AT A
BEAUTIFUL SUNNY FALL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
50S NEAR THE LAKE AND IN THE 40S IN THE OUTLYING AREAS.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TOMORROW AND LOOKING AT ANOTHER DRY AND SUNNY DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE A BIT WARMER IN THE LOW 70S. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY
ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO FORM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SO MAY SEE TEMPS
STAY AROUND 70 ALONG THE LAKE. OTHERWISE LIGHT SW WINDS WILL
BECOME S TO SE IN THE AFTERNOON.
JEE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
LARGE ANTI-CYCLONIC FEATURE WILL PERSIST...WITH A CONTINUED THEME OF
DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. MINIMAL CLOUD COVER DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY RADIATE
INTO THE UPR 40S/LOW 50S. AFTN HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL
CONDS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S. POTENTIAL FOR A LAKE BREEZE IN
THE AFTN HOURS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS TO AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE
MICHIGAN.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM TERM.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE THE DRY THEME INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH
MID-LVL RIDGING PROGGED TO SLIDE OVERHEAD AND AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY
FRI/SAT. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A CONTINUED MODERATION TO AFTN
TEMPS...POSSIBLY GOING ABOVE CLIMO IN THE UPR 70S TO PERHAPS 80
DEGREES SOUTH OF I-80 FRI/SAT. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
ENSEMBLE SUGGEST THE MID-LVL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DISSOLVE AND DRIFT
EAST...WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE
TROUGH ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION BEGINS TO PIVOT EAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME THOUGH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIP WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE DRY
CONDS AND MINIMAL CLOUDS/LGT WINDS...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO EASILY
RADIATE INTO THE LOW/MID 50S.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* NONE.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED. AN AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
TODAY...HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT IT MAY REMAIN EAST OF THE MAIN AIR
FIELDS. EVEN IF IT WERE TO MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO ORD OR MDW LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WIND SPEEDS WOULD LIKELY REMAIN BELOW THE 10 KT
THRESHOLDS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PREDOMINATELY LIGHT WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY BACKING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH DEPARTS
TO THE EAST.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH FOR ALL ELEMENTS.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
224 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RIDGING EXTENDING OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH
HAS RESULTED IN DIMINISHING WINDS TODAY. WAVES HAVE BEEN STEADILY
SUBSIDING TODAY WITH WAVES AT THE MICHIGAN CITY BUOY BELOW 4 FT...
SO WILL CANCEL THE REMAINDER OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH MIDWEEK...THE HIGH WILL
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY BACKING TO THE SOUTH BY TUESDAY EVENING WHERE THEY
SHOULD GENERALLY STAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 PM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1226 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014
The forecast generally looks on track today with just very minor
updates to sky grids over eastern IL where few to scattered
cumulus clouds from I-57 east, especially near IN/IL border per
NAM and RUC curule but still mostly sunny skies. Highs in the
upper 60s to around 70F with north winds 5-10 mph.
1028 mb high pressure over nw IL and northern MO late this morning to
settle over central IL tonight and continue fair weather with
temperatures a bit below normal. Temps currently in the upper 50s
and lower 60s should climb about another 10 degrees for highs in
the upper 60s to around 70F this afternoon. Coolest readings over
east central IL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014
High pressure centered over eastern Nebraska will move east into the
area today. This will bring clear skies, dry weather and light
winds. Even with lots of sunshine today, highs are only expected
to reach into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. GFS MOS guidance
looks several degrees too warm, while the NAM is too cool.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014
An extended period of quiet weather throughout the remainder of the
forecast with high pressure building into and remaining in control
of the Midwest. Surface ridge dominating much of the eastern half
of the CONUS and keeping the weather quiet and fair, with slowly
warming temps through the work week. Weak flow under the sfc high
becomes more southerly on Tuesday as the ridge axis shifts slightly
eastward. Warming trend continues with the thermal ridging over
the desert SW slowly advecting into the center of the country and
max temps are just above normals by Thursday. A weak trof brings
some precip to the Plains Wednesday, but the ridge remains in place
and dry air eroding the activity before impacting Central Illinois.
In the extended, the GFS pushes some minor precip into the extreme
SE with an oddly evolving upper pattern beyond day 6. ECMWF
remaining dry and energy aloft without significant flow seeming to
retrograde somewhat under a larger scale ridge. Keeping the
forecast dry for next weekend until the models become a little more
cohesive with their solutions under the pattern shift.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014
VFR conditions should continue across the central IL terminal
airports through Tuesday. Clear skies to generally prevail with
just a few cumulus clouds around 3k ft possible from CMI east.
1027 mb high pressure near the IL/IA border and northern MO will
drift east across central IL tonight and into the Ohio river
valley on Tue. This will continue the fair/dry weather across
central IL, with no fog expected overnight due to dry airmass.
Winds to stay light out of the north near 5 kts today, then light
and variable to calm at times tonight, and light se winds afer
14Z/9 am Tue.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1105 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014
.DISCUSSION...
135 AM CDT
SYNOPSIS...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WE WILL ALSO BE EXPERIENCING A SLOW WARMING
TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY AND THEN HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S BY LATE WEEK.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PUSHING EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AND IT WILL DRIFT EAST OVER THE
CWA TODAY. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS
MORNING AND BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK LAKE
BREEZE IS POSSIBLE IN COOK COUNTY LATE THIS AFTN. LOOKING AT A
BEAUTIFUL SUNNY FALL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
50S NEAR THE LAKE AND IN THE 40S IN THE OUTLYING AREAS.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TOMORROW AND LOOKING AT ANOTHER DRY AND SUNNY DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE A BIT WARMER IN THE LOW 70S. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY
ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO FORM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SO MAY SEE TEMPS
STAY AROUND 70 ALONG THE LAKE. OTHERWISE LIGHT SW WINDS WILL
BECOME S TO SE IN THE AFTERNOON.
JEE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
LARGE ANTI-CYCLONIC FEATURE WILL PERSIST...WITH A CONTINUED THEME OF
DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. MINIMAL CLOUD COVER DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY RADIATE
INTO THE UPR 40S/LOW 50S. AFTN HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL
CONDS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S. POTENTIAL FOR A LAKE BREEZE IN
THE AFTN HOURS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS TO AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE
MICHIGAN.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM TERM.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE THE DRY THEME INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH
MID-LVL RIDGING PROGGED TO SLIDE OVERHEAD AND AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY
FRI/SAT. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A CONTINUED MODERATION TO AFTN
TEMPS...POSSIBLY GOING ABOVE CLIMO IN THE UPR 70S TO PERHAPS 80
DEGREES SOUTH OF I-80 FRI/SAT. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
ENSEMBLE SUGGEST THE MID-LVL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DISSOLVE AND DRIFT
EAST...WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE
TROUGH ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION BEGINS TO PIVOT EAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME THOUGH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIP WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE DRY
CONDS AND MINIMAL CLOUDS/LGT WINDS...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO EASILY
RADIATE INTO THE LOW/MID 50S.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* NONE.
JEE/KB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY LEADING TO AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET VFR CONDITIONS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL SLOWLY BACK TO WEST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AROUND 7 KT.
A LAKE BREEZE IS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE THIS AFTN BUT EXPECTING IT
TO ONLY IMPACT WINDS AT GYY. IT MAY COME CLOSE TO MDW BUT
THINKING IT WILL STOP JUST EAST OF MDW. AT GYY WINDS WILL BECOME
NE MID THIS AFTN AND THEN VEER TO SW THIS EVENING. COULD SEE A FEW
HOURS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT GYY. OTHERWISE WINDS ACROSS
THE BOARD REMAIN LIGHT AND SW OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE/KB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
135 AM CDT
FOR THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXTENDED THE ADVISORY INTO THIS
AFTERNOON FOR IL AND THIS EVENING FOR IN. WINDS REMAIN HIGH WITH
GUSTS ARND 25 KT AT THE CRIB AND MICHIGAN CITY BUOY. THEREFORE
EXPECTING WAVES TO DIMINISH SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND NORTH WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AND BACK TO W OR NW. A LAKE BREEZE IS PSBL OVER COOK COUNTY
THIS AFTN. THE HIGH CONTINUES EAST AND WINDS BECOME SOUTH ON ITS
BACKSIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH WINDS PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND ARND 10 KT OR LESS. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WILL HAVE
SE TO E WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 PM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1045 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014
The forecast generally looks on track today with just very minor
updates to sky grids over eastern IL where few to scattered
cumulus clouds from I-57 east, especially near IN/IL border per
NAM and RUC curule but still mostly sunny skies. Highs in the
upper 60s to around 70F with north winds 5-10 mph.
1028 mb high pressure over nw IL and northern MO late this morning to
settle over central IL tonight and continue fair weather with
temperatures a bit below normal. Temps currently in the upper 50s
and lower 60s should climb about another 10 degrees for highs in
the upper 60s to around 70F this afternoon. Coolest readings over
east central IL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014
High pressure centered over eastern Nebraska will move east into the
area today. This will bring clear skies, dry weather and light
winds. Even with lots of sunshine today, highs are only expected
to reach into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. GFS MOS guidance
looks several degrees too warm, while the NAM is too cool.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014
An extended period of quiet weather throughout the remainder of the
forecast with high pressure building into and remaining in control
of the Midwest. Surface ridge dominating much of the eastern half
of the CONUS and keeping the weather quiet and fair, with slowly
warming temps through the work week. Weak flow under the sfc high
becomes more southerly on Tuesday as the ridge axis shifts slightly
eastward. Warming trend continues with the thermal ridging over
the desert SW slowly advecting into the center of the country and
max temps are just above normals by Thursday. A weak trof brings
some precip to the Plains Wednesday, but the ridge remains in place
and dry air eroding the activity before impacting Central Illinois.
In the extended, the GFS pushes some minor precip into the extreme
SE with an oddly evolving upper pattern beyond day 6. ECMWF
remaining dry and energy aloft without significant flow seeming to
retrograde somewhat under a larger scale ridge. Keeping the
forecast dry for next weekend until the models become a little more
cohesive with their solutions under the pattern shift.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014
VFR conditions will continue at all sites next 24 hours. With high
pressure moving into the area, skies will be clear next 24 hours with
light and variable winds.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
315 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014
A PLEASANT START TO FALL AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S TODAY WARMING TO THE MID TO UPPER
70S BY FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014
PLAINS SFC RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY EWD THROUGH THE SRN LAKES/OH VALLEY
THIS PD MARKING THE START OF AN EXCEPTIONAL PD OF PLEASANT WEATHER.
HWVR LL THERMAL TROUGH WILL HOLD FIRM YET TDA. COOL START AND
NEUTRAL ADVTN ALOFT WITHIN CONTD NRLY SFC GRADIENT FLW WILL SUBDUE
AFTN DIURNAL...ALTHOUGH THAT WILL NOT BE THE CASE ON TUE. CLR SKIES
AND DECOUPLING UNDERNEATH SFC RIDGE WARRANTS CUTTING MIN TEMPS SE
THIRD OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014
DEEP TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR OR JUST OFF THE WEST COAST
RESULTING IN A LOT OF RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS
OF THE CONUS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ATTEMPTS TO PASS NEAR THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY BUT WILL HIT A BRICK WALL AND EITHER BE SHEARED
OUT OR SHIFTED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THE RESULT IS A CONTINUED DRY
FORECAST WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND GENERALLY CLEAR NIGHTS.
ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A SLUG OF TROPICAL MSTR WORKING NORTH WITH A
DISTURBANCE. EVEN IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION...NO WORRIES UNTIL MAYBE
MONDAY AT THE EARLIEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014
EVOLUTION OF WRN BOUND OF MOIST LL CYCLONIC FLW NR TERM PROBLEMATIC
GIVEN LL THERMAL INVERSION IN PLACE AND AS YET STILL DEEP NRLY
TRAJECTORY NOTED IN PBL. THUS EXTENSIVE MVFR STRATOCU SHIELD ACRS MI
MAY CONT TO WRAP SWD AS SHOWN IN LATEST RAP MODEL GUIDANCE AS
OPPOSED TO MOST OTHER 00Z BASED GUIDANCE WHICH CARRIES IT EWD OF THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. HWVR TRIED TO KEEP SOME CONTINUITY W/PRIOR
FCST BUT OF WHICH MIGHT BE TOO OPTIMISTIC. WILL MONITOR AND AMEND AS
NECESSARY.
OTRWS RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT BLDG THROUGH OH VALLEY AND BREAKDOWN OF
LL THERMAL TROUGH PREDICATES VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...T
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
223 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. ASIDE FROM SOME CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
AFTER TONIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM FROM HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S MONDAY TO HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S BY FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE ENDING OF SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT AND
AMOUNT OF CLEARING OVERNIGHT. A SHORT WAVE TROF WAS MOVING ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT IN ADDITION TO
THE UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT WERE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS.
KEPT A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
NORTHEAST GIVEN THE INSTABILITY WITH COLD AIR ALOFT. THERE WERE A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY TONIGHT. SOME CONCERN FOR LAKE
CLOUDS FORMING UNDER THE BASE OF A DEVELOPING INVERSION OVERNIGHT.
ADDED SOME LAKE CLOUDS TONIGHT GIVEN A FAVORABLE FETCH AND
INCREASING DELTA T VALUES. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY
WITH LOWS AWAY FROM ANY LINGERING AREAS OF LAKE CLOUDS WELL DOWN
INTO THE 40S. KEPT TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS
AROUND 60S MOST AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014
VERY LITTLE TO DISCUSS WITH RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE...TRENDING
FROM BELOW NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL BY END OF PERIOD. IT SHOULD REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND LIKELY DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
MODELS DO BEGIN TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE WORKING TOWARD THE AREA WITH WEAK
UPPER LOW UNDERCUTTING RIDGE. NO SUPPORT FOR ADDING POPS WITH LACK
OF ANY STRONG UPPER AIR SUPPORT OR SFC TRIGGER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014
EVOLUTION OF WRN BOUND OF MOIST LL CYCLONIC FLW NR TERM PROBLEMATIC
GIVEN LL THERMAL INVERSION IN PLACE AND AS YET STILL DEEP NRLY
TRAJECTORY NOTED IN PBL. THUS EXTENSIVE MVFR STRATOCU SHIELD ACRS MI
MAY CONT TO WRAP SWD AS SHOWN IN LATEST RAP MODEL GUIDANCE AS
OPPOSED TO MOST OTHER 00Z BASED GUIDANCE WHICH CARRIES IT EWD OF THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. HWVR TRIED TO KEEP SOME CONTINUITY W/PRIOR
FCST BUT OF WHICH MIGHT BE TOO OPTIMISTIC. WILL MONITOR AND AMEND AS
NECESSARY.
OTRWS RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT BLDG THROUGH OH VALLEY AND BREAKDOWN OF
LL THERMAL TROUGH PREDICATES VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...T
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
649 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
THE FORECAST CONUNDRUM FOR THIS EVENING IS WHAT TO DO WITH
SPATIOTEMPORAL ARRANGEMENTS OF POPS. LARGELY BIASED POP ARRANGEMENT
TO THE MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND 4 KM NAM. THE GFS HAS
CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH THAN THESE MODELS AS AN OUTLIER. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A TROUGH AXIS THAT IS
DRAPED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. FARTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST, DRIER AIR HAS WORKED ITS WAY IN WITH CLEAR SKIES, SO AM
MORE DUBIOUS TO CONVECTION FORMING. THE CAVEAT TO THIS IS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO WHERE CUMULUS IS STARTING TO BUBBLE. THIS ACTIVITY
MIGHT NOT REACH OUR AREA AND THE PROBLEM WITH THAT IS THAT THE LOW
LEVEL JET FOR TONIGHT IS DISPLACED/FORECAST TO THE SOUTHEAST, SO NOT
SURE OUR NORTHWEST ZONES ARE IN THE AREA FOR SUSTAINED LATE NIGHT
CONVECTION VIA THE LOW LEVEL JET LIKE COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
ANYWAY, HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS FROM LIBERAL TO DODGE CITY TO LARNED
AND POINTS SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BE IN THE BETTER AREA OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT 500-
1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE ALONG WITH ABOUT 30 KT OF BULK SHEAR. THE LARGE
HAIL PARAMETER VIA THE 12Z NAM SOLUTION COMES UP WITH A VALUE OF 4
TO 5, SUGGESTING THAT 1.5" WOULD BE THE MAX FOR UPPER HAIL SIZE
FORECAST DISTRIBUTION. PROBABLY WILL BE SMALLER AS CONVECTION
BECOMES QUASI-LINEAR (AT LEAST SHOWN IN THE MODELS) AND YOU GET
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND HIGHER BENEFICIAL COMPETITION
FOR HAIL EMBRYOS. SPEAKING OF WHICH, WITH A PWAT OF SLIGHTLY UNDER
+2SD, WOULD NOT RULE OUT ANOTHER 1-3" PRECIPITATION HIT FOR
LOCATIONS THAT ARE UNDER TRAINING STORMS. RIGHT NOW THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREA FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
OTHERWISE, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS WITH A PREFERENCE
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY EVENING. MINIMUMS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND MAXIMUMS TOMORROW
WILL BE IN THE 80S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES INTO
THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. AS
THIS OCCURS, SOME OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BREAK OFF FROM THE MAIN WAVE AND RETROGRADE
AS A CLOSED LOW INTO THE MIDWEST. INITIALLY, THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FOR
SOME WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH COULD TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE LACK
OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT, DON`T THINK ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LAST
TOO LONG INTO THE EVENING. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP AGAIN ON THURSDAY EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AS TO
WHETHER THESE STORMS DEVELOP IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS OR REMAIN CONFINED
FARTHER SOUTH.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
OVER THE THE WESTERN STATES IS PROGGED TO LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE UPPER RIDGE GETS EJECTED EASTWARD.
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL BRUSH BY THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRYING OUT SOMEWHAT INTO
THE WEEKEND AND WITH WEAK UPPER FLOW, THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MINIMAL TO NON-EXISTENT. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
INCREASING AGAIN AS THE WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WAVE MOVES OUT
INTO THE PLAINS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF
THIS BUT IT SHOULD BE SOMETIME AROUND LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MAINLY DODGE CITY TERMINAL THROUGH MID-
EVENING. AFTER 0200 UTC, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY AGAIN AT DDC AND GCK FOLLOWING THE EVENING
CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY STAY LOW
ENOUGH IN THE LOWEST 3 KFT OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE TO PREVENT
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT, SO VFR FORECAST WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL
AVERAGE 12 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH SOME GUSTS
AFTER 1600 UTC WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 61 85 61 85 / 60 20 20 20
GCK 61 87 60 86 / 20 20 20 10
EHA 60 87 60 83 / 20 20 30 10
LBL 61 88 61 85 / 60 30 30 20
HYS 59 83 59 84 / 30 10 10 10
P28 60 82 62 85 / 50 30 20 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
247 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014
18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE TRI STATE AREA THROUGH NORTHERN
COLORADO. AT THE SFC...TROUGHING NEAR THE KS/CO STATE LINE HAD
RESULTED IN STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED STRONG TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. NEAR
TERM MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT ELEVATED MOSTLY WEAK INSTABILITY
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT...BUT NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS SHOWING
A HIGH DEGREE OF VARIABILITY ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS APPROACH
HOLDING HIGHEST POPS ALONG NORTHERN CWA WHICH IS CLOSER TO UPPER
LOW CENTER. MORNING UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PW VALUES AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...BUT WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY...MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND SCATTERED NATURE OF CURRENT
PRECIPITATION HAVE KEPT ONLY MODEST PRECIP AMOUNTS.
PRECIP THREAT WILL DIMINISH TOMORROW MORNING AS UPPER TROUGH
DEPARTS AND FRONT STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA. THIS FRONT MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS SHOULD CINH
BE OVERCOME.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENT SHOWING A WEAKENING UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING
INTO MINNESOTA WITH A TRAILING TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS. AFTER THAT...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE RAPIDLY
AS TO THE FATE OF THE UPPER LOW. BY THURSDAY EVENING...GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE UPPER LOW ANYWHERE FROM AMARILLO TX /NAM/ TO ROCHESTER
MN /EC/. THE NAM LOOKS TOO FAR WEST AND TOO FAST WITH SLOWER
EC/GFS PREFERRED. BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY GIVEN MODEL
SOLUTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS BASED ON A BLEND OF GENERAL MODEL TRENDS
WHICH BASICALLY HAS THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER LOW MORE OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS WITH OUR AREA TEMPORARILY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPSTREAM UPPER HIGH WHICH STRETCHES FROM THE DAKOTAS TO
COLORADO. SO IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE TRENDED DOWNWARD WEST TO EAST WITH
SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING ALOFT BEING TO OUR EAST. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT
WITH THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER LOW AND BRING IT BACK NORTH...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN TO SAY THE LEAST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WERE KEPT DRY UNTIL THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT
AT SHRA/TSRA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 80S MID TO LATE WEEK BUT
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES NEXT WEEKEND...AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE 70S WITH ENHANCED POTENTIAL
FOR CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE
GREATLY REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUE TO RATHER HIGH CLOUD BASES
AND FOR THE MOST PART ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF
LOW STRATUS AROUND 12Z BUT CONFIDENCE IN LONG LIVED PERIOD OF
STRATUS IS LOW.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
141 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014
18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE TRI STATE AREA THROUGH NORTHERN
COLORADO. AT THE SFC...TROUGHING NEAR THE KS/CO STATE LINE HAD
RESULTED IN STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED STRONG TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. NEAR
TERM MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT ELEVATED MOSTLY WEAK INSTABILITY
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT...BUT NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS SHOWING
A HIGH DEGREE OF VARIABILITY ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS APPROACH
HOLDING HIGHEST POPS ALONG NORTHERN CWA WHICH IS CLOSER TO UPPER
LOW CENTER. MORNING UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PW VALUES AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...BUT WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY...MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND SCATTERED NATURE OF CURRENT
PRECIPITATION HAVE KEPT ONLY MODEST PRECIP AMOUNTS.
PRECIP THREAT WILL DIMINISH TOMORROW MORNING AS UPPER TROUGH
DEPARTS AND FRONT STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA. THIS FRONT MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS SHOULD CINH
BE OVERCOME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014
500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY...THOUGH EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOW. AS STRONG 500 MB
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND
DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE TRI-
STATE AREA.
EXPECT 500 MB RIDGE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY IN RESPONSE
TO CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM. FURTHER
EAST...A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
KEEP THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM MOVING EAST. MODELS SHOW
EITHER A RETROGRESSION WITH THE LOW OR SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW.
ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
INLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF ARE GETTING MORE IN LINE
WITH ANOTHER...THOUGH GFS IS FASTER WITH THE MAIN FEATURES. BY
SUNDAY THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ADVECT OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION COULD TRIGGER
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW DUE TO LACK OF MODEL CONSISTENCY IN REGARDS TO
MOISTURE. THERE IS BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS MAIN LOW CENTER MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS MONDAY...SO WILL KEEP
CONVECTIVE CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE
GREATLY REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUE TO RATHER HIGH CLOUD BASES
AND FOR THE MOST PART ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF
LOW STRATUS AROUND 12Z BUT CONFIDENCE IN LONG LIVED PERIOD OF
STRATUS IS LOW.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
912 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG AXIS BLDG
INTO THE GREAT LKS IN ADVANCE OF A SHRTWV MOVING NEWD THRU THE
NCENTRAL PLAINS. WITH SFC HI PRES RDG STRETCHING FM OHIO NWWD THRU
THE UPR MIDWEST UNDER THE UPR RDG AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...12Z
PWAT WAS AS LO AS ABOUT 0.50 INCH /ABOUT 70 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ AT
MPX...SKIES ARE MOSUNNY. THERE IS A BACK DOOR COLD FNT SLIPPING
SLOWLY SWWD THRU THRU THE E HALF OF LK SUP ASSOCIATED WITH BLDG HI
PRES NEAR JAMES BAY...BUT THE AIRMASS IS SO DRY THERE ARE NO CLDS
ALONG THIS BNDRY IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY DYNAMIC SUPPORT. H85 TEMPS
ARE AS HI AS 12-13C...SUPPORTING TEMPS THAT HAVE RISEN INTO THE 70S
AWAY FM LK MODERATION. LOOKING UPSTREAM...HI CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH
PLAINS SHRTWV ARE ADVANCING INTO NW WI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON TEMPS AND
EXPECTED CLD COVER/POTENTIAL FOR ANY SHOWERS LATER ON WED OVER AT
LEAST THE FAR WRN CWA IN ADVANCE OF DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU THE
PLAINS.
LATE TDAY/TNGT...ALTHOUGH BACK DOOR COLD FNT REINFORCED BY LK BREEZE
FORMATION/INLAND HEATING MAY SLIP INTO THE CWA BORDERING LK SUP FM
THE KEWEENAW E TOWARD WHITEFISH PT LATE THIS AFTN...SUBSIDENCE/DRY
AIRMASS WL LIMIT IMPACT TO SOME LOCAL COOLING NEAR THE SHORE.
OTRW...HI CLDS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHRTWV MOVING NEWD THRU THE PLAINS
WL ARRIVE OVER AT LEAST THE W HALF OF UPR MI OVERNT. THE COMBINATION
OF THESE INCRSG HI CLDS/STRENGTHENING SSW H925 FLOW TO 25 KTS LATE
UNDER A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT CLOSER TO INCOMING SHRTWV WL LIMIT THE
DIURNAL TEMP FALL OVER THE W. THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP MAY
NOT SEE TEMPS FALL BLO 50. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS NEAR 40 AT
THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS OVER THE E UNDER WEAKER GRADIENT/LINGERING
DRIER AIR. MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG FCST IN THE FCST FOR THE E HALF
WITH FVRBL DIURNAL COOLING.
WED...AS SHRTWV MOVES INTO NE MN/NW WI BY LATE AND SOME DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC OVERSPREADS UPR MI...AT LEAST MID/HI CLDS WL BE
THICKENING SW-NE THRU THE DAY. A NUMBER OF THE MODELS GENERATE SOME
LGT PCPN OVER THE FAR W LATE IN THE AFTN WHERE THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES A DEEPER INCRS IN MSTR UNDER THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT HOW QUICKLY THE NEAR SFC LYR WL
MOISTEN...THE NAM AND GFS BOTH INDICATE PWAT WL INCRS TO 1.25-1.35
INCH OR ABOUT 175 PCT OF NORMAL. SO INTRODUCED SOME LO CHC POPS INTO
THE FAR W LATE IN THE DAY. INCRSG CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL RISE IN
TEMP TO THE 60S AT MOST PLACES DESPITE STEADY S WIND THAT MAINTAINS
H85 TEMPS IN THE 10-12C RANGE. THE HIEST TEMPS MOST LIKELY TO REACH
AOA 70 WL BE OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E AWAY FM MODERATION OFF LK MI
AND WHERE THE CLDS WL THICKEN LATER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TEMP WISE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID AND UPPER 70S. THE COOLEST
READINGS WILL BE FOUND ALONG LAKE MI...ON S WINDS. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE ON THOSE DAYS WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...AND THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE W HALF. THIS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500MB THROUGH THAT WILL BE SHIFTING FROM W
LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.P. BY 12Z
THURSDAY. KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE W HALF. THE
SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND WITH NO REAL PULL OF MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF...LIMITED PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED. THE WEAKENING TROUGH
WILL SINK SE THURSDAY...WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
DAY.
AT THAT POINT...THE SIZABLE 500MB RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM MUCH OF THE
W AND CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. A SFC TROUGH
SET UP N OF LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY MAY SINK ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON
SUNDAY. WENT WITH COOLER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT
STILL MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS MOVING
ACROSS MORE OF N UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...A
FEW MORE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS COME TUESDAY AS THE MAIN 500MB RIDGE EXITS TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 908 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014
EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLDS FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND WED IN
ADVANCE OF A DISTURBANCE MOVING NE FM THE PLAINS. OTHERWISE THE DRY
LLVL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT HI PRES WL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS TO ALL 3 TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THRU
THIS COMING WEEKEND AND COOL LAKE WATERS/HI STABILITY...EXPECT WINDS
NO HIGHER THAN 20 KTS THRU SUN.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
414 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE GREAT LKS BTWN UPR RDG IN THE PLAINS AND TROF IN ERN NAMERICA.
SFC HI PRES IS MOVING INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH LLVL WNW
FLOW ON THE NRN FLANK OF THIS FEATURE ADVECTING SOME DRY AIR SHOWN
ON THE 12Z INL RAOB TOWARD UPR MI. THERE WERE SOME CLDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS MRNG ASSOCIATED WITH WAD/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN
ON THE 290K SFC /ABOUT H85/ THIS MRNG...BUT SINCE THE COOLER AIR
UNDER THE TROF IN ERN CANADA IS RETREATING...LINGERING CLD COVER
EARLY THIS AFTN HAS SHIFTED TO MAINLY THE ERN CWA. WITH MORE
SUNSHINE OVER THE W...TEMPS HAVE RISEN ABV NORMAL AND TO 65-70 AWAY
FM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE LKS. LOOKING TO THE W...SKIES ARE
MOCLR THRU MN UNDER H5 HGT RISES/SFC RDG AXIS EXTENDING N FM THE HI
CENTER/DRY AIRMASS WITH PWAT AS LO AS 0.40-0.50 INCH...BUT MORE HI
CLDS ARE SPREADING NE THRU THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A SHRTWV
LIFTING THRU THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON TEMPS WITH DRY
HI PRES EXPECTED TO DOMINATE.
TNGT...WITH SFC HI PRES RDG MOVING OVER THE CWA UNDER RISING HGTS/
DRY AIRMASS...EXPECT MOCLR CONDITIONS. DESPITE THE DRYNESS OF THE
INCOMING AIRMASS...THE WARMTH OF THIS AIR WITH H85 TEMPS FCST NEAR
12C AT 12Z TUE AS WELL AS STEADY WNW H925 WINDS UP TO 15-20 KTS WL
KEEP TEMPS FM FALLING AS LO AS LAST NGT. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS
OVER THE INTERIOR SCENTRAL CLOSER TO THE LIGHTER H925 WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HI PRES CENTER PASSING NEAR THE LOWER LKS. BUT TEMPS
WL NOT FALL BLO 40...SO THERE WL BE NO FROST.
TUE...AS THE SFC HI SHIFTS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...THE LLVL
FLOW IS FCST TO BACK TO THE SSW. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE UNDER
LINGERING DRY AIRMASS AND H85 TEMPS HOLDING ARND 12C...EXPECT TEMPS
TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S AWAY FM LK MODERATION...WHICH WL OCCUR MAINLY
DOWNWIND OF LK MI. BUT RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT FCST OVER THE
UPR LKS...THERE WL BE SOME LK BREEZE FORMATION/LOCAL COOLING NEAR LK
SUP.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...WHICH IS AROUND 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AT THE SFC...THE HIGH OVER MUCH OF THE NE
THIRD OF THE NATION WILL KEEP A RIDGE EXTENDED ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
AT 00Z WEDNESDAY THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER A
500MB RIDGE...WITH A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT THE 500MB
LOW TO OPEN UP BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW...AND SETS UP A TROUGH ACROSS
MN ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS UPPER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THE RESULT ACROSS UPPER MI WILL BE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY FROM W AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE W HALF. THE 500MB RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK OVERHEAD
ON FRIDAY...EXTENDING FOR BASICALLY ALL BUT THE PACIFIC NW AND THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES.
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND FEW CLOUDS EACH NIGHT...WENT TOWARD
THE LOWER END OF FCST GUIDANCE FOR MORNING LOWS. AND WITH
PREDOMINANT S WINDS EACH DAY...THE DOWNSLOPE WAS PLAYED UP A BIT
MORE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL SITES BEING
INCREASED 1-4F.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BECOME A BIT MORE TRICKY WX/WIND
WISE...WITH A SFC TROUGH SINKING IN FROM THE N. LIMITED MOISTURE
AGAIN MAY BE LIMITED. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS SOLUTION...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS COMING BACK INTO THE FCST FOR MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS TAF PERIOD WITH DRY HI PRES
DOMINATING. STRONGER W WINDS THIS AFTN WL DIMINISH THIS EVNG WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014
W WINDS UP TO 25 KTS INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE NCENTRAL LAKE WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT.
WITH THIS RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THRU THE WEEK AND COOL LAKE WATERS/HI STABILITY...EXPECT WINDS
NO HIER THAN 20 KTS INTO THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
252 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE GREAT LKS BTWN UPR RDG IN THE PLAINS AND TROF IN ERN NAMERICA.
SFC HI PRES IS MOVING INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH LLVL WNW
FLOW ON THE NRN FLANK OF THIS FEATURE ADVECTING SOME DRY AIR SHOWN
ON THE 12Z INL RAOB TOWARD UPR MI. THERE WERE SOME CLDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS MRNG ASSOCIATED WITH WAD/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN
ON THE 290K SFC /ABOUT H85/ THIS MRNG...BUT SINCE THE COOLER AIR
UNDER THE TROF IN ERN CANADA IS RETREATING...LINGERING CLD COVER
EARLY THIS AFTN HAS SHIFTED TO MAINLY THE ERN CWA. WITH MORE
SUNSHINE OVER THE W...TEMPS HAVE RISEN ABV NORMAL AND TO 65-70 AWAY
FM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE LKS. LOOKING TO THE W...SKIES ARE
MOCLR THRU MN UNDER H5 HGT RISES/SFC RDG AXIS EXTENDING N FM THE HI
CENTER/DRY AIRMASS WITH PWAT AS LO AS 0.40-0.50 INCH...BUT MORE HI
CLDS ARE SPREADING NE THRU THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A SHRTWV
LIFTING THRU THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON TEMPS WITH DRY
HI PRES EXPECTED TO DOMINATE.
TNGT...WITH SFC HI PRES RDG MOVING OVER THE CWA UNDER RISING HGTS/
DRY AIRMASS...EXPECT MOCLR CONDITIONS. DESPITE THE DRYNESS OF THE
INCOMING AIRMASS...THE WARMTH OF THIS AIR WITH H85 TEMPS FCST NEAR
12C AT 12Z TUE AS WELL AS STEADY WNW H925 WINDS UP TO 15-20 KTS WL
KEEP TEMPS FM FALLING AS LO AS LAST NGT. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS
OVER THE INTERIOR SCENTRAL CLOSER TO THE LIGHTER H925 WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HI PRES CENTER PASSING NEAR THE LOWER LKS. BUT TEMPS
WL NOT FALL BLO 40...SO THERE WL BE NO FROST.
TUE...AS THE SFC HI SHIFTS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...THE LLVL
FLOW IS FCST TO BACK TO THE SSW. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE UNDER
LINGERING DRY AIRMASS AND H85 TEMPS HOLDING ARND 12C...EXPECT TEMPS
TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S AWAY FM LK MODERATION...WHICH WL OCCUR MAINLY
DOWNWIND OF LK MI. BUT RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT FCST OVER THE
UPR LKS...THERE WL BE SOME LK BREEZE FORMATION/LOCAL COOLING NEAR LK
SUP.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ONLY
ITEM OF CONCERN IS AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES AT THIS
TIME. AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE DISTURBANCE IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO A WAVE MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL CANADA TO BECOME CAUGHT UP IN THE FLOW AND SEPARATED OUT
FROM THE REST OF THE FEATURE. MODELS STILL CONSISTENT ON THE BEST
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLIDING NORTHEAST JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE CWA. THUS...WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE
WEST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A PLEASANT END TO SEPTEMBER ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A SURFACE HIGH STATIONED OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION (AROUND A RIDGE STRETCHING NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA) AND ALLOW
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
MOST DAYS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S (OR ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). THERE ARE INDICATIONS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK (AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS EAST)...WHICH WILL MARK THE RETURN TO MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS TAF PERIOD WITH DRY HI PRES
DOMINATING. STRONGER W WINDS THIS AFTN WL DIMINISH THIS EVNG WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014
W WINDS UP TO 25 KTS INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE NCENTRAL LAKE WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT.
WITH THIS RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THRU THE WEEK AND COOL LAKE WATERS/HI STABILITY...EXPECT WINDS
NO HIER THAN 20 KTS INTO THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1220 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014
UPDATED FOR THE NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014
MOST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A RIBBON OF THICKER CLOUDS REMAINING JUST WEST OF
THE NORTHLAND. THE RAP HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON BRINGING SOME OF
THESE CLOUDS BACK INTO OUR WESTERN/NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. THERE
IS SOME EASTWARD MOVEMENT TOWARD KOOCHICHING COUNTY OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL SATELLITE IMAGES. WE HAVE DO BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
OVER PARTS OF THE WEST/NORTH TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE CWA DRY THROUGH MONDAY WITH MORE SUN
EXPECTED.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER THIRTIES TO LOWER FORTIES.
WE WENT ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE AND EVEN DROPPED TEMPS A BIT
MORE OVER PARTS OF OUR FAR NORTHEAST ZONES AND FROM KHYR TO KPBH.
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TEMPS CLOSELY AS IF THEY DROP A
BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED...SOME PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE. FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND RANGE FORM
THE MID SIXTIES TO AROUND SEVENTY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES AREA. AT THE
SFC A 1025MB HIGH WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE SRN GREAT LAKES. A
SLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AHEAD OF THE
NEXT INCOMING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM
THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
MAIN FORCING WILL REMAIN ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...WHICH
WILL RUN INTO A BLOCKING HIGH TO THE EAST AND LIFT TO THE NE THROUGH
NRN MN AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WED.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...AND REMAIN CONFINED TO
AREAS NORTH OF MN HIGHWAY 210 AND EWD ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE IN NW
WI. RAINFALL AMTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE
RE-ENFORCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL U.S. ON THURSDAY...AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND WARM THROUGH FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
WHEN BR FORMS AND VSBYS DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE. SOME CU POSSIBLE
AFTER 13Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 48 70 51 68 / 0 0 10 20
INL 45 74 52 69 / 0 0 10 30
BRD 47 72 54 70 / 0 0 30 20
HYR 44 73 50 69 / 0 0 0 10
ASX 47 72 51 69 / 0 0 0 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
739 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING NEAR THE NEB/S DAKOTA BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PUSHING EAST WITH STILL
SOME LINGER STRATUS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. MEANWHILE A SFC
TROUGH/WIND SHIFT IS PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. WINDS
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM INTO
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WARMEST ACROSS THE SW. FAR EASTERN CWA
STILL IN THE 60S DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS. A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NW NEB...INTO N
CENTRAL.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES DUE TO THE
TRENDS IN THE ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE BEING OBSERVED WITH THE BACK LINE ROUGHLY
FROM NORTHEAST LINCOLN COUNTY UP THROUGH HOLT COUNTY. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS CUSTER COUNTY AT THE PRESENT
TIME WITH SHOWERS AND WEAK ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE COMING HOURS AND THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDED THAT
DIRECTION ACCORDINGLY. WITH LOSS OF SUN...SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE...HOWEVER MODELS ARE SHOWING
AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHICH
MAY CONTINUE TO BRING LIFT TO THE REGION AND CONTINUE THE ACTIVITY
INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL QUICKLY VEER
EASTWARD SO BELIEVE ALL SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
LOCAL AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY IS
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE TROUGH LINE. NEAR TERM
MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAKENING CAP WITH A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS TO
FIRE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE RUC IS MORE ROBUST THAN THE OTHER
MODELS...ALTHOUGH BOTH THE HRRR OR THE NAM DO DEVELOP A LINE. SHEAR
IS MARGINAL...30 KTS OR LESS...AND NARROW BAND OF LESS THAN A 1000
J/KG OF CAPE SO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO...ESPECIALLY FROM HAIL AS FREEZING
LEVELS IS CLOSE TO 13000 FT ASL.
THE ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST WITH ANY STORMS PUSHING EAST OF
THE CWA BY MORNING. MEANWHILE SOME DRY AIR TO FILL IN BEHIND THE
TROUGH. MODELS SUGGESTING A DRY LAYER TO TRAP SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS N CENTRAL TOWARDS MORNING WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME
FOG...AND CONTINUED TO MENTION PATCHY FOG AFTER SHOWERS END.
TOMORROW DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND A NICE WARM UP ACROSS THE BOARD AS RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. MOST AREAS SHOULD PUSH INTO THE 80S...WITH THE FAR
WESTERN ZONES NEARING 90.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST AND A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. THESE HIGHS TO BE AT LEAST 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH THURSDAY TO INCREASE TO 15 TO
25 MPH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MILD EACH NIGHT WITH LOWS ALSO 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM 55 TO 60.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO WYOMING AND MONTANA BY MONDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF
IS ABOUT 12-18 HRS FASTER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAN THE 12Z GFS.
WITH THE 12Z GEM IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...PREFERENCE
LIES WITH THE ECMWF. LATEST SUPERBLEND POPS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 30 POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT LOOK ON
TRACK. BY TUESDAY...H5 HEIGHT DIFFERENCE ARE NEAR 120 METERS
ACROSS IDAHO AND UTAH. THIS IS DUE TO THE GFS WITH ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION AND THE ECMWF FORECASTING AN UPPER TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY
AND UPPER 70S SUNDAY...COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 70S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
BOUNDARY EVIDENT ON KLNX RADAR DRIFTING SWD SLOWLY AND STRONG TO
SEVERE TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SMALL PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS CUSTER CO. TCU TO SMALL CB DEVELOPING ALONG BOUNDARY JUST
NORTH OF KLBF BUT AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT NOT EMINENT BASED ON
VISUAL INSPECTION SO HAVE INCLUDED ONLY VCTS FOR KLBF THROUGH 02Z
WHEN LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD REDUCE REALIZED INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...LLJ DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL INSTABILITY LATER
MAY SUSTAIN TSRA FURTHER NORTH AND EAST OF KLBF. NAM/GEM AND TO
SOME DEGREE THE HIRES NMM DID A DECENT JOB CAPTURING TEMPORAL AND
SPATIAL DETAILS OF CONVECTION...AND MOVE THE PRECIP EAST OF THE
CWA BY MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE NOT INCLUDED TSRA FOR KVTN THIS
EVENING.
BEYOND THIS...MID LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS SHOULD CLEAR BY LATE
EVENING AND MAINLY SKC AFTER THAT. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY TMRW.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BROOKS
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...JWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
634 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING NEAR THE NEB/S DAKOTA BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PUSHING EAST WITH STILL
SOME LINGER STRATUS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. MEANWHILE A SFC
TROUGH/WIND SHIFT IS PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. WINDS
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM INTO
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WARMEST ACROSS THE SW. FAR EASTERN CWA
STILL IN THE 60S DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS. A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NW NEB...INTO N
CENTRAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY IS
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE TROUGH LINE. NEAR TERM
MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAKENING CAP WITH A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS TO
FIRE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE RUC IS MORE ROBUST THAN THE OTHER
MODELS...ALTHOUGH BOTH THE HRRR OR THE NAM DO DEVELOP A LINE. SHEAR
IS MARGINAL...30 KTS OR LESS...AND NARROW BAND OF LESS THAN A 1000
J/KG OF CAPE SO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO...ESPECIALLY FROM HAIL AS FREEZING
LEVELS IS CLOSE TO 13000 FT ASL.
THE ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST WITH ANY STORMS PUSHING EAST OF
THE CWA BY MORNING. MEANWHILE SOME DRY AIR TO FILL IN BEHIND THE
TROUGH. MODELS SUGGESTING A DRY LAYER TO TRAP SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS N CENTRAL TOWARDS MORNING WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME
FOG...AND CONTINUED TO MENTION PATCHY FOG AFTER SHOWERS END.
TOMORROW DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND A NICE WARM UP ACROSS THE BOARD AS RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. MOST AREAS SHOULD PUSH INTO THE 80S...WITH THE FAR
WESTERN ZONES NEARING 90.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST AND A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. THESE HIGHS TO BE AT LEAST 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH THURSDAY TO INCREASE TO 15 TO
25 MPH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MILD EACH NIGHT WITH LOWS ALSO 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM 55 TO 60.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO WYOMING AND MONTANA BY MONDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF
IS ABOUT 12-18 HRS FASTER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAN THE 12Z GFS.
WITH THE 12Z GEM IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...PREFERENCE
LIES WITH THE ECMWF. LATEST SUPERBLEND POPS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 30 POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT LOOK ON
TRACK. BY TUESDAY...H5 HEIGHT DIFFERENCE ARE NEAR 120 METERS
ACROSS IDAHO AND UTAH. THIS IS DUE TO THE GFS WITH ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION AND THE ECMWF FORECASTING AN UPPER TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY
AND UPPER 70S SUNDAY...COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 70S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
BOUNDARY EVIDENT ON KLNX RADAR DRIFTING SWD SLOWLY AND STRONG TO
SEVERE TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SMALL PORTION OF THE BOUNDRY
ACROSS CUSTER CO. TCU TO SMALL CB DEVELOPING ALONG BOUNDARY JUST
NORTH OF KLBF BUT AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT NOT EMINENT BASED ON
VISUAL INSPECTION SO HAVE INCLUDED ONLY VCTS FOR KLBF THROUGH 02Z
WHEN LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD REDUCE REALIZED INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...LLJ DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL INSTABILITY LATER
MAY SUSTAIN TSRA FURTHER NORTH AND EAST OF KLBF. NAM/GEM AND TO
SOME DEGREE THE HIRES NMM DID A DECENT JOB CAPTURING TEMPORAL AND
SPATIAL DETAILS OF CONVECTION...AND MOVE THE PRECIP EAST OF THE
CWA BY MIDIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE NOT INCLUDED TSRA FOR KVTN THIS
EVENING.
BEYOND THIS...MID LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS SHOULD CLEAR BY LATE
EVENING AND MAINLY SKC AFTER THAT. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY TMRW.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...JWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1230 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014
UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO...THIS BAND IS
LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL IMPACT SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. PREVIOUS
FORECAST HAD THIS HANDLED WELL...JUST MINOR REVISIONS WERE
IMPLEMENTED. THE 22.14Z RUC13 SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE CURRENT
SITUATION WELL AND IS BEING BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WHICH SUGGESTS A SLIGHT DELAY IN QPF OF AN HOUR OR TWO ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. IN ADDITION...INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LACKING
OVER THIS AREA...THUS SHOWERS SHOULD PREVAIL RATHER THAN STORMS
THIS MORNING...BUT THE MODEL INDICATES A GRADUAL INCREASE WITH THE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INTO THE AFTERNOON...THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
THEN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A DEEPENING SFC TROF WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEAST INTO
WRN NEB TODAY AND TONIGHT. SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15
TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS NWRN ZONES. WINDS RELAX A BIT
TONIGHT BUT REMAIN STRONG OFF THE SFC. THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE UNDERWAY BY
21Z THIS AFTN AS AN UPPER LOW ACROSS IDAHO ADVANCES EAST TOWARD AND
INTO WRN SD TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE
BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER ERN COLO. THE MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE FCST
AREA BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE GIVEN PWS
INCREASING TO 1.33 INCHES WHICH IS 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE NAM
INDICATED HIGHER VALUES.
THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER ACROSS WRN NEB IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
EXPAND EAST TODAY. SOME CLEARING MAY DEVELOP IN THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE POPS ARE LIKELY SOUTH AND
EAST TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TUESDAY...THEN WITH TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES WITH A
RETROGRADING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK.
TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE PUSHING OUT OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER MOVING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH VARIOUS WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING AROUND
THE SYSTEM.
SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
EXITING THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BY
AFTERNOON...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOCATIONS
GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WILL MIX OUT AND WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO 1000-2000 J/KG
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND WITH THE STRONG WARMING...SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION IS LIKELY. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS IN
TERMS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AS THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER...SUGGESTING
IN EXCESS OF 40KTS...WHILE THE NAM IS 20 TO 30KTS. EVEN WITH THE
LOWER SHEAR...IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A FEW STRONGER
STORMS LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS TO THE EAST WILL SEE COOLER
HIGHS...IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION
EARLIER IN THE DAY AND ARE LOOKING TO STAY VERY CAPPED. THESE AREAS
WILL STILL SEE STORMS MOVE IN DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT THEY SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED QUICKLY AND WITH A LACK OF
INSTABILITY WOULD EXPECT THUNDER TO DECREASE...BUT THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET THAT COULD CONTINUE TO FEED THE STORMS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THEY MOVE EAST.
AT 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE MODELS HAVE MOVED THE UPPER LOW
CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND WITH
THE UPWARD FORCING SHIFTING TO THE EAST...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO...IF NOT COMPLETELY FINISHED LOCALLY. FAIRLY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LEADS TO A DRY FORECAST.
WARMER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND WITH
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...STRONG WARMING IS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA...THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE SOME
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER AND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WILL SEE
COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS LOOKING TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY THERE BEGINS TO BE SLIGHT DIVERGENCE IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS IN TERMS OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. WHAT IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH RIDGING BUILDING AHEAD OF IT INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WHAT IS STARTING TO GET PROBLEMATIC IS THE CURRENT SYSTEM
GETS STUCK UNDER THE LARGE RIDGE WHICH SPANS INTO THE EASTERN PART
OF THE COUNTRY AND STARTS TO RETROGRADE. THE DISCREPANCIES LIE
WITH HOW FAR WEST IT WILL MAKE IT. THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL KEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS...KEEPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 50S
AND 60S...WHILE WEAK AND MINI SHORTWAVES MAY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AT TIMES LATER IN THE WEEK. THESE SMALL IMPULSES OF ENERGY
AREN/T LOOKING TO GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT AT THIS POINT TO PROVIDE A
NEED FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST SO WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. WHAT THIS WILL MEAN IS LIKELY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR LATE
IN THE WEEK AS THE WARMER AIR WILL BE KEPT TO THE WEST AND NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.
THEN LOOKING INTO THE WEEKEND...OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ONTO THE WEST COAST...A LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY MIGRATE
TOWARDS THE EAST. THERE IS DIFFERENCES WITH THE SPEED AS THE
OPERATIONAL GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AS WELL AS THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE FASTER SOLUTION WOULD BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SLOWER WOULD
KEEP THINGS DRY INTO MONDAY. WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
SYSTEM AS TIME GETS CLOSER TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE FORECAST
FOR THESE PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...DURATION...AND INTENSITY OF THE
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TODAY/TONIGHT IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE...WITH
THAT BEING SAID...A LEAD DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...POTENTIALLY
SPREADING RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER
TO BOTH THE KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS. AT THIS TIME THERE LOOKS TO BE
NO MAJOR DISRUPTIONS IN VISIBILITY OR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...BUT THE CONTINUED INCREASE IN LOWER ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR MVFR OR LOWER LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED...AND ARE ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EJECT TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS
OVERNIGHT...KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST CYCLE...AT A MINIMUM CEILING SHOULD FALL TO MVFR
OR LOWER AT BOTH TERMINALS AFTER 09Z TOMORROW...BUT RAIN IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY TODAY AND FROM THE
SOUTH...WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN ARE ANTICIPATED TO
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JACOBS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...JACOBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1026 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014
UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO...THIS BAND IS
LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL IMPACT SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. PREVIOUS
FORECAST HAD THIS HANDLED WELL...JUST MINOR REVISIONS WERE
IMPLEMENTED. THE 22.14Z RUC13 SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE CURRENT
SITUATION WELL AND IS BEING BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WHICH SUGGESTS A SLIGHT DELAY IN QPF OF AN HOUR OR TWO ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. IN ADDITION...INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LACKING
OVER THIS AREA...THUS SHOWERS SHOULD PREVAIL RATHER THAN STORMS
THIS MORNING...BUT THE MODEL INDICATES A GRADUAL INCREASE WITH THE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INTO THE AFTERNOON...THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
THEN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A DEEPENING SFC TROF WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEAST INTO
WRN NEB TODAY AND TONIGHT. SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15
TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS NWRN ZONES. WINDS RELAX A BIT
TONIGHT BUT REMAIN STRONG OFF THE SFC. THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE UNDERWAY BY
21Z THIS AFTN AS AN UPPER LOW ACROSS IDAHO ADVANCES EAST TOWARD AND
INTO WRN SD TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE
BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER ERN COLO. THE MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE FCST
AREA BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE GIVEN PWS
INCREASING TO 1.33 INCHES WHICH IS 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE NAM
INDICATED HIGHER VALUES.
THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER ACROSS WRN NEB IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
EXPAND EAST TODAY. SOME CLEARING MAY DEVELOP IN THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE POPS ARE LIKELY SOUTH AND
EAST TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TUESDAY...THEN WITH TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES WITH A
RETROGRADING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK.
TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE PUSHING OUT OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER MOVING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH VARIOUS WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING AROUND
THE SYSTEM.
SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
EXITING THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BY
AFTERNOON...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOCATIONS
GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WILL MIX OUT AND WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO 1000-2000 J/KG
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND WITH THE STRONG WARMING...SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION IS LIKELY. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS IN
TERMS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AS THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER...SUGGESTING
IN EXCESS OF 40KTS...WHILE THE NAM IS 20 TO 30KTS. EVEN WITH THE
LOWER SHEAR...IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A FEW STRONGER
STORMS LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS TO THE EAST WILL SEE COOLER
HIGHS...IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION
EARLIER IN THE DAY AND ARE LOOKING TO STAY VERY CAPPED. THESE AREAS
WILL STILL SEE STORMS MOVE IN DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT THEY SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED QUICKLY AND WITH A LACK OF
INSTABILITY WOULD EXPECT THUNDER TO DECREASE...BUT THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET THAT COULD CONTINUE TO FEED THE STORMS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THEY MOVE EAST.
AT 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE MODELS HAVE MOVED THE UPPER LOW
CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND WITH
THE UPWARD FORCING SHIFTING TO THE EAST...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO...IF NOT COMPLETELY FINISHED LOCALLY. FAIRLY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LEADS TO A DRY FORECAST.
WARMER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND WITH
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...STRONG WARMING IS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA...THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE SOME
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER AND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WILL SEE
COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS LOOKING TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY THERE BEGINS TO BE SLIGHT DIVERGENCE IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS IN TERMS OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. WHAT IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH RIDGING BUILDING AHEAD OF IT INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WHAT IS STARTING TO GET PROBLEMATIC IS THE CURRENT SYSTEM
GETS STUCK UNDER THE LARGE RIDGE WHICH SPANS INTO THE EASTERN PART
OF THE COUNTRY AND STARTS TO RETROGRADE. THE DISCREPANCIES LIE
WITH HOW FAR WEST IT WILL MAKE IT. THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL KEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS...KEEPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 50S
AND 60S...WHILE WEAK AND MINI SHORTWAVES MAY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AT TIMES LATER IN THE WEEK. THESE SMALL IMPULSES OF ENERGY
AREN/T LOOKING TO GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT AT THIS POINT TO PROVIDE A
NEED FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST SO WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. WHAT THIS WILL MEAN IS LIKELY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR LATE
IN THE WEEK AS THE WARMER AIR WILL BE KEPT TO THE WEST AND NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.
THEN LOOKING INTO THE WEEKEND...OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ONTO THE WEST COAST...A LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY MIGRATE
TOWARDS THE EAST. THERE IS DIFFERENCES WITH THE SPEED AS THE
OPERATIONAL GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AS WELL AS THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE FASTER SOLUTION WOULD BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SLOWER WOULD
KEEP THINGS DRY INTO MONDAY. WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
SYSTEM AS TIME GETS CLOSER TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE FORECAST
FOR THESE PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WRN NEB 18Z- 20Z AND MOVE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH
NCNTL NEB LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
EXITING THE FCST AREA TO THE EAST 06Z- 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. MVFR
CIGS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR HIGHWAY 61 06Z-09Z TUESDAY MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE TSTMS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JACOBS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1205 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND
MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVE BACK OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1201 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 955 PM TUESDAY...OVERALL INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF RAINFALL
HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...THE 3 KM
HRRR AND RAP MODELS ALL INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN INCREASE
IN INTENSITY AROUND 09Z OR SO AND HAVE INDICATED A SLIGHT DROP IN
POP/QPF FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...RAMPING BACK UP TOWARD
MORNING. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN
OFFSHORE THAT SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE MORNING. CONTINUED WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME CONCERN ABOUT ROTATING
CELLS LATER TONIGHT AS SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES COAST WITH GOOD
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY DEVELOPING NEAR THE TROUGH.
BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES...HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD AS MANY INLAND SPOTS ALREADY
IN THE UPPER 50S WITH LOW 60S COAST...EXCEPT UPPER 60S OUTER
BANKS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DROP MUCH FURTHER GIVEN THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INLAND, RAIN WILL CONTINUE HEAVY AT
TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IN AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE. UPPER
LOW TO THE WEST GRADUALLY WEAKENS/FILLS AND DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS
NE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHUD SEE AT LEAST LINGERING LIGHT RAIN
INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER INLAND AREAS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER RAIN AND FLOODING NEARER THE COAST CONTINUING. EXPECT
LITTLE IF ANY APPRECIABLE LOW/MID LEVEL DRYING DURING THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN WEAK MIXING SO CLOUDY SKIES LIKELY LINGER THRU THE
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CAP HIGHS IN THE MID OR UPPER 60S INLAND.
WARM SOUTH FLOW AT THE COAST MAY BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S
DESPITE PRECIP.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUE...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN UNSETTLED WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLY ONGOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
MAINLY DRY WITH NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN ENDS WED NIGHT AS LOW PRES AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT WEAKENS MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION. WILL KEEP IN CHANCE POPS
WITH AREA STILL UNDER INFLUENCE OF WEAK UPR LEVEL ENERGY AND
WEAKENING UPR LOW. CHANCES OF HEAVIER WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AND ONLY SCT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ASSOC WITH DRIER
AIR UNDER WEAK SUBSIDENCE. UPR LVL RIDGING EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOW POPS FCST.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. NIGHTTIME
TEMPS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 60S UNDER LIGHT TO CALM WIND
CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 625 PM MONDAY...NOW REPORTING MVFR CEILINGS AT KISO IN AN
AREA OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. EXPECT ADDITIONAL TAF SITES TO GRADUALLY
DROP TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND TO IFR LATER TONIGHT AS STEADY
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES. EXPECT IFR TO LOW END MVFR TO LINGER
THRU MUCH OF WED MORNING BEFORE MIXING TENDS TO ERODE THE LOWEST
CLOUD LAYERS BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUE...SUB VFR CONDS EXPECTED WED NIGHT WITH SCT TO
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON THU AS RAIN
AND LOW CLOUDS EXIT THOUGH SCT SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
COULD BE LATE NIGHT FOG OR STRATUS LATE IN THE WEEK EACH NIGHT AS
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM WITH PARTLY CLOUDY OR CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1201 AM WEDNESDAY...POSTED SCA FOR ALBEMARLE SOUND AND
ALLIGATOR RIVER UNTIL NOON WED. OBS ARE INDICATING FREQUENT GUSTS TO
25 KT ERN ALB SOUND AND MOUTH OF ALLIGATOR RIVER...AND FCST
INDICATES THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING. REST OF FCST ON
TRACK.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 10 PM TUESDAY...STRONG GUSTY N/NNE WINDS CONTINUE...GUSTING
AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS AT DIAMOND BUOY AND WELL INTO THE 20S AT OTHER
SPOTS. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO CURRENT ADVISORIES WHICH CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY ON THE FAR NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN WATERS AND PAMLICO
SOUND AND INTO THURSDAY IN THE MIDDLE WATERS. SEAS ALSO CONTINUE
ROUGH WITH 7 FEET 13 MILES EAST OF OREGON INLET AND 8 FEET AT
DIAMOND BUOY. WINDS WILL VEER E/SE AND SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE TROF TO THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY BUT 6+ FT SEAS WILL
LINGER THRU WED AFTN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUE...SCA CONDITIONS WILL END FIRST IN THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THEN THE NORTHERN WATERS AS SLY WINDS DIMINISH TO 5-15 KT
HIGHEST NRN WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE WED
NIGHT. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AGAIN AROUND 15 KT BY THU NIGHT AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS 2-5 FT HIGHEST NRN AND CNTRL
COASTAL WATERS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON STRENGTH OF THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS AND POSSIBILITY EXISTS OF MARGINAL SCA CONDS IN
LATER FORECASTS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ045>047-080-081-
092>095-098-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ130-131-135-156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JBM
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...JAC/TL
AVIATION...JAC/CTC/BTC
MARINE...JAC/CTC/BTC/JBM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1000 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND
MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVE BACK OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 955 PM TUESDAY...OVERALL INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF RAINFALL
HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...THE 3 KM
HRRR AND RAP MODELS ALL INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN INCREASE
IN INTENSITY AROUND 09Z OR SO AND HAVE INDICATED A SLIGHT DROP IN
POP/QPF FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...RAMPING BACK UP TOWARD
MORNING. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN
OFFSHORE THAT SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE MORNING. CONTINUED WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME CONCERN ABOUT ROTATING
CELLS LATER TONIGHT AS SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES COAST WITH GOOD
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY DEVELOPING NEAR THE TROUGH.
BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES...HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD AS MANY INLAND SPOTS ALREADY
IN THE UPPER 50S WITH LOW 60S COAST...EXCEPT UPPER 60S OUTER
BANKS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DROP MUCH FURTHER GIVEN THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INLAND, RAIN WILL CONTINUE HEAVY AT
TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IN AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE. UPPER
LOW TO THE WEST GRADUALLY WEAKENS/FILLS AND DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS
NE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHUD SEE AT LEAST LINGERING LIGHT RAIN
INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER INLAND AREAS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER RAIN AND FLOODING NEARER THE COAST CONTINUING. EXPECT
LITTLE IF ANY APPRECIABLE LOW/MID LEVEL DRYING DURING THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN WEAK MIXING SO CLOUDY SKIES LIKELY LINGER THRU THE
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CAP HIGHS IN THE MID OR UPPER 60S INLAND.
WARM SOUTH FLOW AT THE COAST MAY BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S
DESPITE PRECIP.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUE...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN UNSETTLED WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLY ONGOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
MAINLY DRY WITH NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN ENDS WED NIGHT AS LOW PRES AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT WEAKENS MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION. WILL KEEP IN CHANCE POPS
WITH AREA STILL UNDER INFLUENCE OF WEAK UPR LEVEL ENERGY AND
WEAKENING UPR LOW. CHANCES OF HEAVIER WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AND ONLY SCT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ASSOC WITH DRIER
AIR UNDER WEAK SUBSIDENCE. UPR LVL RIDGING EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOW POPS FCST.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. NIGHTTIME
TEMPS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 60S UNDER LIGHT TO CALM WIND
CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 625 PM MONDAY...NOW REPORTING MVFR CEILINGS AT KISO IN AN
AREA OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. EXPECT ADDITIONAL TAF SITES TO GRADUALLY
DROP TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND TO IFR LATER TONIGHT AS STEADY
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES. EXPECT IFR TO LOW END MVFR TO LINGER
THRU MUCH OF WED MORNING BEFORE MIXING TENDS TO ERODE THE LOWEST
CLOUD LAYERS BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUE...SUB VFR CONDS EXPECTED WED NIGHT WITH SCT TO
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON THU AS RAIN
AND LOW CLOUDS EXIT THOUGH SCT SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
COULD BE LATE NIGHT FOG OR STRATUS LATE IN THE WEEK EACH NIGHT AS
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM WITH PARTLY CLOUDY OR CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 10 PM TUESDAY...STRONG GUSTY N/NNE WINDS CONTINUE...GUSTING
AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS AT DIAMOND BUOY AND WELL INTO THE 20S AT OTHER
SPOTS. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO CURRENT ADVISORIES WHICH CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY ON THE FAR NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN WATERS AND PAMLICO
SOUND AND INTO THURSDAY IN THE MIDDLE WATERS. SEAS ALSO CONTINUE
ROUGH WITH 7 FEET 13 MILES EAST OF OREGON INLET AND 8 FEET AT
DIAMOND BUOY. WINDS WILL VEER E/SE AND SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE TROF TO THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY BUT 6+ FT SEAS WILL
LINGER THRU WED AFTN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUE...SCA CONDITIONS WILL END FIRST IN THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THEN THE NORTHERN WATERS AS SLY WINDS DIMINISH TO 5-15 KT
HIGHEST NRN WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE WED
NIGHT. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AGAIN AROUND 15 KT BY THU NIGHT AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS 2-5 FT HIGHEST NRN AND CNTRL
COASTAL WATERS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON STRENGTH OF THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS AND POSSIBILITY EXISTS OF MARGINAL SCA CONDS IN
LATER FORECASTS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ045>047-080-081-
092>095-098-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-156-
158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...JAC/TL
AVIATION...JAC/CTC/BTC
MARINE...JAC/CTC/BTC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
652 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE STALLING
OFFSHORE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. THE STALLED COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE WILL WAVER BACK TOWARDS THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM MONDAY...UPDATES THIS MORNING FOCUS ON THE CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS FALLING OUT OF A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE PEE DEE
REGION OF SOUTH CAROLINA. 07Z HRRR BRINGS IT STEADILY EASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH VERY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED. A NEW
CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS INDICATED TO DEVELOP IN THE SANTEE
RIVER/CHARLESTON VICINITY BETWEEN 3-5 PM THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE UPRIGHT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...WITH UPPER
LEVEL WINDS POTENTIALLY BLOWING LIGHT RAIN ANOTHER 30-50 MILES NORTH
OF THE STORMS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO TEMPS OR
WINDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS...
A POTENTIALLY INTERESTING FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE NC PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA SHOULD PUSH OFF THE COAST BY MID MORNING WITH
NORTH-NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS ALLOWING A DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS TO
BUILD SOUTHWARD. THIS IS A SHALLOW AIRMASS CHANGE...WITH WIND
DIRECTIONS REMAINING WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AT AND ABOVE THE 850
MB LEVEL. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OUT JUST BEYOND THE GULF STREAM
TONIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING AS
SURFACE PRESSURES RISE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST. UP AT 500 MB AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON
IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF TONIGHT OVER WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
THERE ARE A COUPLE CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST WITHOUT A CLEAR ANSWER
AT THIS EARLY HOUR. THE FIRST IS HOW MUCH MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
HANGS AROUND TODAY AND WHAT IMPACT DOES IT HAVE ON TEMPERATURES?
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A NARROW BAND OF THICK CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
AL/GA...MATCHING UP QUITE WELL WITH ANALYZED 700 MB RH MODEL FIELDS.
BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND GFS ADVECT THIS MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA TODAY...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH CLOUD
COVER TO LET TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE THE LOWER 80S. IN FACT MORE
SUNSHINE UP IN THE LUMBERTON/ELIZABETHTOWN AREA WILL PROBABLY
BALANCE OUT THE OVERALL COOLER AIRMASS TO PRODUCE LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
THE SECOND CONCERN IS WITH THE UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF TO OUR WEST
TONIGHT HOW MUCH OVERRUNNING RAIN DEVELOPS? ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION...PROBABLY
NOT BEGINNING IN EARNEST UNTIL THE 310K THETA SURFACE WHICH WILL BE
UP NEAR 600 MB. THE 00Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING
RAIN ACROSS EASTERN SC LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS PROGGED TO EXIST BELOW 600 MB IT IS HARD
TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ADVECTION OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
ONSHORE EITHER. MY HIGHEST POP FORECASTS ARE LIMITED TO COASTAL
SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE...WITH 15-30 PERCENT
CHANCES ELSEWHERE.
CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...HOWEVER INCREASING
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ADVECT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR LEADING TO
LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S FROM ELIZABETHTOWN THROUGH DILLON
AND DARLINGTON. LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST...EXCEPT FOR
SOME MID 60S ALONG THE COAST NEAR SOUTHPORT AND GEORGETOWN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...THE FIRST FULL OF DAY OF FALL ON TUESDAY
BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT POSITIONED JUST OFFSHORE...AS LARGE CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OH VLY RIDGES DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH THIS FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE...THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY INTO JUST HOW FAR FROM THE COAST IT WILL GET BEFORE
STALLING. THE UPPER ENERGY DRIVING THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
BROAD OVERHEAD...STALLING AS A GREAT LAKES AREA RIDGE BLOSSOMS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS CREATES A DIFFICULT FORECAST BECAUSE...ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY TUESDAY...THE BROAD LOW OVERHEAD WILL
INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST...POSSIBLY ALONG THE COAST. WINDS THROUGH
THE LOWEST 600MB OF THE COLUMN WILL VEER TO THE E/NE...LIKELY
DRIVING THE BOUNDARY /COASTAL TROUGH/ BACK TOWARDS SHORE. THIS
CREATES INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHEST POP NEAR
THE COAST. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT WILL EXIST BETWEEN HEAVY RAIN AND JUST LIGHT SHOWERS.
TEMPS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S BOTH DAYS.
HOWEVER...TUESDAY WILL HAVE NOTICEABLY MORE SUNSHINE THAN WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD 50S...WITH SOME LOW 50S
POSSIBLE WEST OF I-95. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THANKS TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...VERY UNSETTLED THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AS
THE PATTERN TAKES ON MORE OF A WINTER-LIKE FEEL...BUT IMPROVEMENTS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
DIFFUSE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD THURSDAY WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH A
COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL UNCERTAINTY EXISTING IN EXACTLY HOW THE
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE LATE-WEEK...AS THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT BETWEEN EXTREMELY HIGH PWATS LURKING JUST OFFSHORE...AND
MUCH MORE TYPICAL PWATS TOWARDS I-95. THE DIFFERENCE IS DUE TO THE
COASTAL TROUGH WHICH WILL BE SLOWLY ADVECTING WESTWARD ON DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW...PUSHING THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES TOWARDS THE COAST.
WPC GRAPHICS SHOW THIS GRADIENT WELL...WITH ABOUT 4 INCHES OF QPF
CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST...BUT LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER
INCH IN THE WESTERN ZONES. THE ECMWF IS ONE OF THE MORE PESSIMISTIC
MODELS...BUT IS FAVORED BY WPC...AND THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A MORE
UNSETTLED THU/FRI PERIOD. WILL BUMP POP TO MDT CHC FOR LATE WEEK AND
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS BELOW CLIMO BUT LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE.
THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ERODE SATURDAY AS RIDGING FINALLY
DISPLACES THE UPPER TROUGH...BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THIS SUGGESTS DRYING FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY AT THE
MID-LEVELS...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL TAKE A DECIDEDLY DOWNWARD TURN
DURING THE WKND...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SLOW. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER TO SEASONABLE NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A COLD FRONT IS POISED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THE IS MOSTLY MID CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH IT...HOWEVER SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING
FLO AND LBT WITH AT WORST INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS. LATER TODAY
HEAVIER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE CWA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE MYRTLES. THERE COULD BE
SOME INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS THERE...WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER. WINDS
POST FRONTAL WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH A MID CLOUD CEILING
LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH
LITTLE OR NO FOG EXPECTED.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM MONDAY...THE FRONT IS RUNNING ABOUT TWO HOURS SLOWER
THAN EARLIER MODELS INDICATED. IT HAS CROSSED INTERSTATE 95 AND
SHOULD BE AT THE BEACHES AROUND 9 AM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300
AM FOLLOWS...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR CAROLINAS WILL MOVE EAST AND OFF THE COAST LATER THIS
MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 3-5 FEET WILL
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LIGHTER WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT SHOULD BUILD AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCREASING NE WIND. WE COULD BE NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT STALLED JUST OFFSHORE TUESDAY
MORNING WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MID-WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. THIS PRODUCES A PINCHED GRADIENT
OVER THE WATERS...AND PERSISTENT NE WINDS OF 15-25 KTS...WITH LITTLE
FLUCTUATION...BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE GUSTY NE WINDS WILL
DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT FT TUESDAY...AND REMAIN THERE ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A NE WIND WAVE THE DOMINANT GROUP. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT
HOISTING THE HEADLINE WILL WAIT UNTIL MORE CERTAINTY ABOUT THE
TIMING CAN BE DETERMINED. ONCE THE SCA IS ISSUED...IT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR QUITE SOME TIME.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL BE MUCH LIKE THE SHORT
TERM...AS A STAGNANT PATTERN KEEPS A COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE
AND A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE INLAND. THIS PRODUCES A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF NE WINDS DUE TO A PINCHED GRADIENT...AND WINDS OF 15-25 KTS WILL
BE COMMON LATE WEEK. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS WILL
KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS AT 4-6 FT PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH WILL LIKELY BE HOISTED
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE
LONG TERM.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...TRA/JDW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
645 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE STALLING
OFFSHORE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. THE STALLED COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE WILL WAVER BACK TOWARDS THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM MONDAY...UPDATES THIS MORNING FOCUS ON THE CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS FALLING OUT OF A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE PEE DEE
REGION OF SOUTH CAROLINA. 07Z HRRR BRINGS IT STEADILY EASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH VERY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED. A NEW
CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS INDICATED TO DEVELOP IN THE SANTEE
RIVER/CHARLESTON VICINITY BETWEEN 3-5 PM THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE UPRIGHT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...WITH UPPER
LEVEL WINDS POTENTIALLY BLOWING LIGHT RAIN ANOTHER 30-50 MILES NORTH
OF THE STORMS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO TEMPS OR
WINDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS...
A POTENTIALLY INTERESTING FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE NC PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA SHOULD PUSH OFF THE COAST BY MID MORNING WITH
NORTH-NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS ALLOWING A DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS TO
BUILD SOUTHWARD. THIS IS A SHALLOW AIRMASS CHANGE...WITH WIND
DIRECTIONS REMAINING WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AT AND ABOVE THE 850
MB LEVEL. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OUT JUST BEYOND THE GULF STREAM
TONIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING AS
SURFACE PRESSURES RISE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST. UP AT 500 MB AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON
IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF TONIGHT OVER WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
THERE ARE A COUPLE CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST WITHOUT A CLEAR ANSWER
AT THIS EARLY HOUR. THE FIRST IS HOW MUCH MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
HANGS AROUND TODAY AND WHAT IMPACT DOES IT HAVE ON TEMPERATURES?
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A NARROW BAND OF THICK CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
AL/GA...MATCHING UP QUITE WELL WITH ANALYZED 700 MB RH MODEL FIELDS.
BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND GFS ADVECT THIS MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA TODAY...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH CLOUD
COVER TO LET TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE THE LOWER 80S. IN FACT MORE
SUNSHINE UP IN THE LUMBERTON/ELIZABETHTOWN AREA WILL PROBABLY
BALANCE OUT THE OVERALL COOLER AIRMASS TO PRODUCE LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
THE SECOND CONCERN IS WITH THE UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF TO OUR WEST
TONIGHT HOW MUCH OVERRUNNING RAIN DEVELOPS? ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION...PROBABLY
NOT BEGINNING IN EARNEST UNTIL THE 310K THETA SURFACE WHICH WILL BE
UP NEAR 600 MB. THE 00Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING
RAIN ACROSS EASTERN SC LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS PROGGED TO EXIST BELOW 600 MB IT IS HARD
TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ADVECTION OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
ONSHORE EITHER. MY HIGHEST POP FORECASTS ARE LIMITED TO COASTAL
SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE...WITH 15-30 PERCENT
CHANCES ELSEWHERE.
CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...HOWEVER INCREASING
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ADVECT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR LEADING TO
LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S FROM ELIZABETHTOWN THROUGH DILLON
AND DARLINGTON. LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST...EXCEPT FOR
SOME MID 60S ALONG THE COAST NEAR SOUTHPORT AND GEORGETOWN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...THE FIRST FULL OF DAY OF FALL ON TUESDAY
BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT POSITIONED JUST OFFSHORE...AS LARGE CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OH VLY RIDGES DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH THIS FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE...THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY INTO JUST HOW FAR FROM THE COAST IT WILL GET BEFORE
STALLING. THE UPPER ENERGY DRIVING THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
BROAD OVERHEAD...STALLING AS A GREAT LAKES AREA RIDGE BLOSSOMS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS CREATES A DIFFICULT FORECAST BECAUSE...ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY TUESDAY...THE BROAD LOW OVERHEAD WILL
INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST...POSSIBLY ALONG THE COAST. WINDS THROUGH
THE LOWEST 600MB OF THE COLUMN WILL VEER TO THE E/NE...LIKELY
DRIVING THE BOUNDARY /COASTAL TROUGH/ BACK TOWARDS SHORE. THIS
CREATES INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHEST POP NEAR
THE COAST. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT WILL EXIST BETWEEN HEAVY RAIN AND JUST LIGHT SHOWERS.
TEMPS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S BOTH DAYS.
HOWEVER...TUESDAY WILL HAVE NOTICEABLY MORE SUNSHINE THAN WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD 50S...WITH SOME LOW 50S
POSSIBLE WEST OF I-95. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THANKS TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...VERY UNSETTLED THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AS
THE PATTERN TAKES ON MORE OF A WINTER-LIKE FEEL...BUT IMPROVEMENTS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
DIFFUSE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD THURSDAY WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH A
COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL UNCERTAINTY EXISTING IN EXACTLY HOW THE
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE LATE-WEEK...AS THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT BETWEEN EXTREMELY HIGH PWATS LURKING JUST OFFSHORE...AND
MUCH MORE TYPICAL PWATS TOWARDS I-95. THE DIFFERENCE IS DUE TO THE
COASTAL TROUGH WHICH WILL BE SLOWLY ADVECTING WESTWARD ON DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW...PUSHING THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES TOWARDS THE COAST.
WPC GRAPHICS SHOW THIS GRADIENT WELL...WITH ABOUT 4 INCHES OF QPF
CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST...BUT LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER
INCH IN THE WESTERN ZONES. THE ECMWF IS ONE OF THE MORE PESSIMISTIC
MODELS...BUT IS FAVORED BY WPC...AND THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A MORE
UNSETTLED THU/FRI PERIOD. WILL BUMP POP TO MDT CHC FOR LATE WEEK AND
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS BELOW CLIMO BUT LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE.
THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ERODE SATURDAY AS RIDGING FINALLY
DISPLACES THE UPPER TROUGH...BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THIS SUGGESTS DRYING FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY AT THE
MID-LEVELS...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL TAKE A DECIDEDLY DOWNWARD TURN
DURING THE WKND...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SLOW. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER TO SEASONABLE NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR EARLY THIS MORNING AS WINDS
REMAIN ELEVATED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NW 06-07Z AT KFLO/KLBT AND 09-10Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 4K. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH
FROPA THUS WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION VCSH. SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE AS VFR CONTINUES.
THICKNESS PATTERNS SUGGEST ACTUAL COLD AIR WILL LAG QUITE AWAYS
BEHIND THE FRONT. A SLUGGISH PRESSURE PATTERN MAY CAUSE WIND
DIRECTIONS TO BECOME VARIABLE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY LATE
MORNING OR IN THE AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS ALONG WITH INCREASING PVA MAY CAUSE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL APPEARS VFR
WILL CONTINUE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. DURING THE
EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE TERMINAL-WIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM MONDAY...THE FRONT IS RUNNING ABOUT TWO HOURS SLOWER
THAN EARLIER MODELS INDICATED. IT HAS CROSSED INTERSTATE 95 AND
SHOULD BE AT THE BEACHES AROUND 9 AM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300
AM FOLLOWS...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR CAROLINAS WILL MOVE EAST AND OFF THE COAST LATER THIS
MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 3-5 FEET WILL
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LIGHTER WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT SHOULD BUILD AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCREASING NE WIND. WE COULD BE NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT STALLED JUST OFFSHORE TUESDAY
MORNING WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MID-WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. THIS PRODUCES A PINCHED GRADIENT
OVER THE WATERS...AND PERSISTENT NE WINDS OF 15-25 KTS...WITH LITTLE
FLUCTUATION...BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE GUSTY NE WINDS WILL
DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT FT TUESDAY...AND REMAIN THERE ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A NE WIND WAVE THE DOMINANT GROUP. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT
HOISTING THE HEADLINE WILL WAIT UNTIL MORE CERTAINTY ABOUT THE
TIMING CAN BE DETERMINED. ONCE THE SCA IS ISSUED...IT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR QUITE SOME TIME.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL BE MUCH LIKE THE SHORT
TERM...AS A STAGNANT PATTERN KEEPS A COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE
AND A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE INLAND. THIS PRODUCES A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF NE WINDS DUE TO A PINCHED GRADIENT...AND WINDS OF 15-25 KTS WILL
BE COMMON LATE WEEK. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS WILL
KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS AT 4-6 FT PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH WILL LIKELY BE HOISTED
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE
LONG TERM.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/JDW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
954 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
NOW AFTER SUNDOWN AND THE END OF MIXING, THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
(925 MB) HAVE DOMINATED THE STRATUS MOVEMENT AND FORMATION. AS
SUCH THE CLOUDS HAVE MOVED WEST ABOUT 20 MILES SINCE 730 PM. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR AWHILE UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL TRANSPORT NO
LONGER TRENDS WESTWARD...WHICH MAY CONTINUE THROUGH 10Z OR SO. SO
THIS UPDATE SPREAD CLOUDS WESTWARD ABOUT 30 MILES AND STABILIZED
TEMPS UNDER THE CLOUDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
TRANSIENT UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
TO MINNESOTA AND OPEN BY 7 AM CDT WED. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST HAS PRETTY MUCH LOCKING IN THE CLOUDS OVER
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER SO FAR TODAY. THIS EVENING
THE H850/H925 WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AND WARM ADVECTION SETS IN
AROUND SUNSET CENTRAL. THIS SHOULD BRING AN EROSION OF THE WESTERN
BOUNDARY OF CLOUDS BUT SOLID CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY TROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
STRATUS IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND A MILD
WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
WILL FOLLOW THE 18 UTC RAP FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH
TONIGHT...WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT STRATUS FIELD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 1930 UTC.
EXPECT THE CURRENT STRATUS FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A 925-850 MB
MOISTURE AXIS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING...SLOWLY ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DID ADD A PATCHY FOG MENTION ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK WHERE WINDS WILL BE WEAKEST
TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...A WARM WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY...TO THE UPPER 80S FAR WEST. THE ONE CAVEAT IN THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS IF THE STRATUS DOES LINGER A BIT LONGER
THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WHICH COULD
HOLD HIGHS CLOSER TO THE LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
WARM AND DRY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THROUGH THE WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WED-FRI. THIS WILL
BE THE WARMEST WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES WE`VE SEEN SINCE EARLY
AUGUST.
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...
THE MODELS (12 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM) CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE
ALSO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER THAT MOST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY. HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN
ENTER THE FORECAST MONDAY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
STRATUS CLOUDS WILL PERSISTENT ACROSS CENTRAL ND WHERE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS KBIS-KJMS
THROUGH 10-12Z. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER BUT PATCHY
FOG COULD EXTEND MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS PAST 12Z. CONDITIONS IMPVG TO
VFR AFTER 13Z. OTHERWISE VFR KDIK-KISN-KMOT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
654 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
TRANSIENT UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
TO MINNESOTA AND OPEN BY 7 AM CDT WED. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST HAS PRETTY MUCH LOCKING IN THE CLOUDS OVER
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER SO FAR TODAY. THIS EVENING
THE H850/H925 WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AND WARM ADVECTION SETS IN
AROUND SUNSET CENTRAL. THIS SHOULD BRING AN EROSION OF THE WESTERN
BOUNDARY OF CLOUDS BUT SOLID CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY TROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
STRATUS IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND A MILD
WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
WILL FOLLOW THE 18 UTC RAP FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH
TONIGHT...WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT STRATUS FIELD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 1930 UTC.
EXPECT THE CURRENT STRATUS FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A 925-850 MB
MOISTURE AXIS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING...SLOWLY ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DID ADD A PATCHY FOG MENTION ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK WHERE WINDS WILL BE WEAKEST
TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...A WARM WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY...TO THE UPPER 80S FAR WEST. THE ONE CAVEAT IN THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS IF THE STRATUS DOES LINGER A BIT LONGER
THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WHICH COULD
HOLD HIGHS CLOSER TO THE LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
WARM AND DRY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THROUGH THE WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WED-FRI. THIS WILL
BE THE WARMEST WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES WE`VE SEEN SINCE EARLY
AUGUST.
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...
THE MODELS (12 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM) CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE
ALSO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER THAT MOST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY. HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN
ENTER THE FORECAST MONDAY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS AT KJMS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WENT OVC010 AT KJMS AFTER 04Z BUT WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW COULD SEE IFR CEILINGS BELOW 1 THOUSAND AGL. WILL
MONITOR THIS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE MVFR BECOMING VFR AT KBIS AFTER 04Z
AND SOME PATCHY FOG (2SM BR) KMOT-KBIS 10-13Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
649 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COOL EARLY THIS
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A SPRAWLING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE/BUILD
SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA TODAY WILL BE
FIGURING OUT THE COVERAGE OF CAA STRATOCUMULUS AND HOW FAST THEY
WILL EXIT THE AREA. HAVE USED THE RAP MODEL AS A GUIDE TO FIGURE
THIS OUT WHICH KEEPS ROUGHLY THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH MID MORNING FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AS SUBSIDENCE...DRYING
AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW INCREASE FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ARRIVAL OF AUTUMN WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL MAKE
FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
THE ADJUSTED MAV GUIDANCE AND CONSENSUS RAW 2 METER TEMPERATURES
TO TRY TO CAPTURE THE NORMALLY COOL SPOTS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S IN THOSE COOL SPOTS TO THE MID 40S AT RIDGE TOPS AND
NEAR URBAN AREAS.
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON TUESDAY. SUNNY SKIES AND A
MODIFYING AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER
60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE DUE TO A WARMING/MODIFYING AIRMASS.
DIURNAL SWINGS OF 25 TO 30 DEGREES WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN THE DRY
AIRMASS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME MOISTURE POSSIBLY TRYING TO
WORK UP FROM THE SOUTH HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH RIDGING
OVERHEAD...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY/WARM THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD SHOULD RUN
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR CLOUDS ARE PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. OVERALL CLOUD BASES GENREALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 2000-3000
FEET...WITH A FEW AREAS OF CEILINGS AS LOW AS 1500 FEET. THESE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...ESPECIALLY AFFECTING THE CENTRAL OHIO TAF SITES. CEILINGS
SHOULD LIFR TO VFR BY LATE MORNING.
NNW WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 6-12 KNOT RANGE
TODAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HATZOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
436 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COOL EARLY THIS
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A SPRAWLING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE/BUILD
SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA TODAY WILL BE
FIGURING OUT THE COVERAGE OF CAA STRATOCUMULUS AND HOW FAST THEY
WILL EXIT THE AREA. HAVE USED THE RAP MODEL AS A GUIDE TO FIGURE
THIS OUT WHICH KEEPS ROUGHLY THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH MID MORNING FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AS SUBSIDENCE...DRYING
AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW INCREASE FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ARRIVAL OF AUTUMN WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL MAKE
FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
THE ADJUSTED MAV GUIDANCE AND CONSENSUS RAW 2 METER TEMPERATURES
TO TRY TO CAPTURE THE NORMALLY COOL SPOTS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S IN THOSE COOL SPOTS TO THE MID 40S AT RIDGE TOPS AND
NEAR URBAN AREAS.
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON TUESDAY. SUNNY SKIES AND A
MODIFYING AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER
60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE DUE TO A WARMING/MODIFYING AIRMASS.
DIURNAL SWINGS OF 25 TO 30 DEGREES WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN THE DRY
AIRMASS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME MOISTURE POSSIBLY TRYING TO
WORK UP FROM THE SOUTH HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH RIDGING
OVERHEAD...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY/WARM THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD SHOULD RUN
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN EXPANSE OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN OHIO...AND THESE CLOUDS ARE
GRADUALLY MAKING PROGRESS TO FILL IN AND MOVE FURTHER SOUTH. THESE
CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2500-4000 FOOT RANGE...AND SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT THE
CENTRAL OHIO TAF SITES. NNW WINDS HAVE GENERALLY SUBSIDED TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS...BUT GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
ANOTHER FEW HOURS IN CENTRAL OHIO.
THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...AS WINDS SETTLE IN AT AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA...CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH
TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...JGL/HICKMAN
AVIATION...HATZOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
906 PM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS..A DYING FRONT MAY HOLD TOGETHER ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW
SHOWERS TO THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT...THEN FURTHER INLAND TUESDAY. A
MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN MIDWEEK...WITH
COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER AFTERWARDS. AFTER A LONG HOT SUMMER...AUTUMN
WEATHER WILL BE ARRIVING RIGHT ON TIME.
&&
.EVENING UPDATE...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
OVER KLAMATH AND DESCHUTES COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE SLOWLY
PROGRESSED NORTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN LANE COUNTY THIS EVENING. IT
SEEMS STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FINALLY TREND WEAKER...BUT
ADMITTEDLY...IT SEEMS JUST WHEN WE BEGIN THINKING THIS...A NEW
UPDRAFT GOES UP AND TEMPORARILY INVIGORATES AN EXISTING OR NEW STORM.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND AN
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKE. THE LATTER HAS
DEFINITELY BEEN TRENDING LESS OVER THE LAST HOUR. SUSPECT THESE
STORMS WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS THEY ENTER EASTERN LINN COUNTY.
GLOBAL TO HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
PARTICULARLY HELPFUL THIS EVENING. TO VARYING DEGREES THOUGH...LOWER
RESOLUTION MODELS DO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT QPF OVER THE CASCADES TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RAP ALSO INDICATES THE STORMS ACROSS
EASTERN LANE COUNTY ARE FORMING IN A LOCALIZED REGION OF NEGATIVE 700
TO 500MB THETA LAPSE RATES. THE RAP SUGGESTS THIS REGION OF NEGATIVE
THETA LAPSE RATES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE CASCADES TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY EAST OF THE CREST TOWARDS
MORNING. NONETHELESS...BANDS OF ALTOCUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
COAST AND WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS EVENING. WITH NO DISTINCT INCOMING
VORT MAX ON WATER VAPOR THIS EVENING...SUSPECT THIS ALTOCUMULUS WILL
STAY RELATIVELY SHALLOW...BUT I AM STILL NERVOUS THAT SOMETHING
MIGHT FIRE FURTHER WEST OVER THE FOOTHILLS OR EVEN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP PRECIP/THUNDER CHANCES OVER
THE CASCADES...AND LEAVE A MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...BUT WILL BE MONITORING THE SITUATION CLOSELY.
NO CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE
THE WETTEST DAY OF THE WEEK. /NEUMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES VERSUS THIS TIME SATURDAY...AS LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW HAS REPLACED THE OFFSHORE FLOW OF YESTERDAY. THE MOST DRAMATIC
TEMPERATURE DROPS HAVE BEEN ALONG THE COAST...WHERE ONSHORE FLOW AND
LOW CLOUDS ARE RESULTING IN TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES F COOLER THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY.
THE MARINE LAYER IS IN THE PROCESS OF DEEPENING...AND WILL LIKELY
MAKE A SUBSTANTIAL INLAND PUSH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BY SUNRISE MONDAY
IT IS LIKELY MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A BLANKET OF
STRATUS. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL TAKE A LITTLE WHILE TO RETREAT TO THE
COAST...PROBABLY SOMETIME AROUND MIDDAY OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS 3-5 DEG C COOLER
THAN TODAY SHOULD LEAD TO MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MONDAY
AND EVEN THAT MAY BE A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A TREND AWAY FROM THE PERSISTENT VERY
WARM AND DRY WEATHER THIS SUMMER HAS BROUGHT. AFTER 21 DAYS OF TEMPS
90 DEGREES OR WARMER AT PDX...AND A RECORD 36 DAYS AT OR ABOVE 90
DEGREES IN EUGENE...IT MAY BE SOMEWHAT SAFE TO SAY WE HAVE SEEN THE
LAST SUCH HEAT OF THE SEASON. AS WE NEAR THE END OF SEPTEMBER...THE
DAYS ARE GETTING SHORTER...AND THE SUN IS GETTING LOWER IN THE SKY.
IT BECOMES RAPIDLY MORE DIFFICULT CLIMATOLOGICALLY TO ACHIEVE 90
DEGREES AS WE MOVE TOWARD OCTOBER.
AND THIS TRANSITION IS HAPPENING RIGHT ON CUE...AS THE AUTUMNAL
EQUINOX IS FAST APPROACHING - 723 PM PDT ON MON SEP 22. MONDAY
EVENING A LARGE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE PAC NW
COAST...LIKELY TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAIN TO OUR DISTRICT
AS ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES SLOWLY ONSHORE TUE-WED.
18Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT COASTAL JET
SETUP ALONG THE COAST TUE EVENING...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME SOUTH WIND
GUSTS 40-50 MPH TO THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS. THIS WOULD BE THE FIRST
SUCH EVENT OF THE SEASON. CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT REFLECT THIS JUST
YET...AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ENERGY TO BE SPLITTING AS THE
FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. LOWER PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOWER PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTH WOULD CUT DOWN ON THE POTENTIAL OF SOUTH TO NORTH
GRADIENTS TO DRIVE SUCH WIND GUSTS.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCATIONS SEE 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN
OUT OF THIS EVENT TUE THROUGH WED...PARTICULARLY COAST AND COAST
RANGE. INLAND AREAS COULD SEE UPWARDS OF 0.50-1.00 INCH DEPENDING ON
HOW WAVES TRACK ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AS IT LUMBERS ONSHORE. IF RAIN
GETS HEAVY...IT COULD BE A CONCERN FOR DEBRIS FLOWS IN SOME OF OUR
HARDER HIT FIRE AREAS THESE PAST FEW WEEKS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS POSSIBILITY AND OF COURSE PASS ALONG MORE INFORMATION AS WE
LEARN THE SEVERITY OF THESE BURN SCARS. WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...AFTER OUR SLOW-MOVING FRONT CLEARS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
EVENING...MODELS SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL MEAN COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND FOR TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK TO
NORMAL...THOUGH BEYOND FRIDAY MODELS HAVE ALL SORTS OF DIFFERENT
IDEAS OF HOW TO HANDLE OUR PATTERN. BEST GUESS IS THAT SOME FLAT
RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO RETURN BY THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY SOME
FRONTAL SYSTEMS ATTEMPTING TO CLIP THE PAC NW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS BASED MORE ON PATTERN RECOGNITION THAN ANYTHING ELSE...SO
CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION IS RATHER LOW STARTING NEXT
WEEKEND. WEAGLE
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERIOR UNDER SCT
TO BKN CIRRUS AND SOME SMOKE FROM NEARBY WILDLAND FIRES FORMING A
SCATTERED LAYER AROUND 5000 FT. STORMS IN EASTERN LANE COUNTY
WILL NOT AFFECT EUGENE TERMINAL. A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER WILL
PUSH LOW MVFR STRATUS INTO MUCH OF THE VALLEY BY AROUND 12Z MON.
AT THE COAST...IFR CIGS HAVE PUSHED BACK ONSHORE AND WILL REMAIN
THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE RISING TO MVFR.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 11Z MON THEN
INCREASING CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS AROUND 1500 FT AS MARINE LAYER
DEEPENS AND PUSHES INLAND. MVFR CIGS LIKELY BY 13Z MON...LASTING
THROUGH 17Z MON WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
BOWEN/CULLEN
&&
.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS AND HAVE
WEAKENED THIS EVENING AS ANTICIPATED WITH CURRENT GUSTS AROUND 15
KT. UPDATES THIS EVENING INCLUDED SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT OF WINDS
BASED ON BEGINNINGS OF THE 00Z NAM. STILL LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN BENIGN THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS PICKING UP A BIT
MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. BOTH WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONGER SYSTEM
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10-15 FT AND AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2014
.UPDATE...
Adjust POPs for the rest of tonight.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
POPs were trimmed westward this update and will maintain slight
chance POPs for the rest of the night. The TTU WRF initialized
evening convection the best, and indicates some additional
development overnight, mainly west of an Ozona, to San Angelo, to
Haskell line. The HRRR and NAM models lend some support to this as
well. Only minor tweaks were made to sky cover, otherwise the rest
of the forecast is in good shape.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms extended from
Junction to San Angelo at 23Z. Have VCTS for KSJT until 1Z. Stratus
may develop over Crockett County and western Concho Valley towards
daybreak. NAM and GFS models indicated the stratus to stay just west
of KSOA and KSJT early Wednesday morning, so included a scattered
layer of 1500 to 2000 ft at those sites beginning at 12Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/
SHORT TERM...
/Tonight and Tomorrow/
Isolated showers have developed across the Northern Edwards
Plateau in an area of weak instability and an axis of low level
moisture. Otherwise a scattered cu field covered the southern 1/3
of the area, along the I-10 corridor. For tonight, weak
instability and abundant tropical moisture(PW values 1.4 to 1.6
inches) will remain across much of the area. However, not much
ascent to work with. Will leave the slight chance POPS going for
this evening across southern and western areas. For Wednesday, not
much change in the forecast from today. Going for a slight chance
of thunderstorms west of a Haskell to Robert Lee to Ozona line.
However, coverage will remain isolated due to weak instability and
not much vertical motion. Highs will be in the 80s.
21
LONG TERM...
/Wednesday night through next Tuesday/
No significant changes made to the long term forecast. Wednesday
night, thunderstorms may be lingering across the western fringe of
the CWA as an upper level trough moves east across the Central and
Southern Plains.
A large upper level ridge will remain in place across the eastern
U. S. through most of the long term forecast. A weak shear axis
will be located over Texas into the weekend, which could lead to a
stray shower or two, but coverage/chances are not high enough to
include a mention in the forecast.
20
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 64 84 61 84 61 / 10 10 10 10 5
San Angelo 65 84 61 83 59 / 20 10 10 10 5
Junction 63 84 59 84 61 / 10 5 5 5 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
04/60
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
339 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014
AT 3 AM...A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA. WHILE THE AREA IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES...WE SAW A RAPID
INCREASE IN OUR RADAR RETURNS FROM NEAR LA CROSSE TO BETWEEN
22.02Z AND 22.04Z....AND THEY HAVE REMAINED OVER THOSE AREAS
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WHILE SOME OF THIS WAS OUR NORMAL ANOMALOUS
PROPAGATION OF THE RADAR BEAM THAT WE SEE AS THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION DEVELOPS...THE 30 TO 40 DBZ RETURNS ARE MIGRATORY BIRDS
THROUGH THE AREA. WE KNOW THIS BECAUSE THE CORRELATION
COEFFICIENTS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 0.65 AND 0.9. WITH NO
PRECIPITATION IN THESE AREAS...THIS MEANS THAT THESE RADAR TARGETS
ARE BIOLOGICAL IN NATURE. WE KNOW IT IS MIGRATORY BIRDS BECAUSE OF
THE TIME OF YEAR AND THAT THE VAD WIND PROFILE IS SHOWING 30 TO
45 KNOT WINDS BETWEEN 2 AND 15K FEET. TYPICALLY IN THESE SYNOPTIC
SITUATIONS WE DO NOT GET THIS MANY WIND LEVELS ALOFT WITHOUT
CLOUDS. IN ADDITION THESE WIND SPEEDS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 15 TO 25
KNOTS HIGHER THAN WHAT SHOW UP IN THE SOUNDINGS. THIS ADDITIONAL
SPEED IS FROM THE MIGRATORY BIRDS. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF
BIRDS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 2 AND 8K FEET.
BESIDES THE BIRDS TONIGHT...BEEN WATCHING THE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG. DENSE FOG IS ALREADY REPORTED AT BOSCOBEL AND BLACK RIVER
FALLS. WITH LIGHT WINDS /LESS THAN 10 KNOTS/ UP TO 2500 FEET AND
OUR WEB CAM ALREADY SHOWING A LAYER OF STRATUS IN THE VALLEYS...WE
EXPECT TO SEE A CONTINUAL DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FOG.
FOLLOWED THE 930 TO 10 AM CLIMATOLOGY WITH THE DISSIPATION OF
THIS FOG.
TONIGHT...LOOKS TO BE EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH LIGHT WINDS
UP TO 25K FEET AND CLEAR SKIES. AS A RESULT...WENT WITH WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG FROM 2-3 AM THROUGH 930-10 AM.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WEAK
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHEAST IOWA AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z ARE SATURATED BETWEEN 5 AND
20K FEET AND THERE IS OMEGA BETWEEN 5 AND 10K FEET. THIS RESULTS
IN THE MODELS GENERATING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THIS AREA. SINCE
ALL OF DETERMINISTIC MODELS WERE IN AGREEMENT...ADDED A 15 TO
24 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE FORECAST.
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOW THAT THE 500 MB SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SHEARS APART ACROSS THE AREA. ONE PART MOVES NORTH AND
IS ABSORBED BY THE POLAR JET STREAM. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN PIECE
MOVES SOUTHWEST AND FORMS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW. WHILE THERE IS
AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL OCCUR. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
PRECIPITATION. BOTH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN PRODUCE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND NAM KEEP THIS
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WESTERN IOWA.
SINCE ECMWF SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH LIFT CO-LOCATED WITH
THE MOISTURE...KEPT THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD /THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY/...IT LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCATED ACROSS
THE AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 10 TO 14C WHICH IS ABOUT
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014
VALLEY FOG FORMATION CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN. THE
TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD AT 04Z WAS 5F...WHICH IS NOT QUITE OPTIMAL
FOR FOG FORMATION...BUT CERTAINLY NOT OUTSIDE THE RANGE WHERE FOG
CAN BE DISCOUNTED. THE WINDS AT KLSE ARE LIGHT AND WERE STARTING
TO SWING AROUND TO A FAVORABLE UP VALLEY FLOW OF EAST/SOUTHEAST.
NO SIGNS OF A HAZE LAYER FORMING OVER THE CITY YET...SO HAVE
PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF THE FOG A LITTLE BIT BUT WITH THE 22.00Z
NAM CONTINUING TO SHOW SATURATION OCCURRING AND THE 22.03Z RAP NOW
SHOWING THIS AS WELL...STILL FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT FOG WILL
DEVELOP. ONCE THIS DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT WINDS AS THE SURFACE HIGHS DRIFTS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1137 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014
THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE
SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION LAST NIGHT WAS TRACKING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SFC FRONT EXTENDED
WESTWARD FROM SYSTEMS/S LOW...BACK ACROSS WI. ADD IN FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SPOTTY/SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED ACROSS
CENTRAL-EASTERN WI.
THE BOUNDARY WILL SLIP SOUTH BY THE EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO IA/MO OVERNIGHT. A LOT OF DIURNAL ELEMENTS TO THE
CURRENT CLOUD MASS ACROSS THE REGION...AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND SINKING AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH...EXPECT THESE
CLOUDS TO CLEAR QUICKLY THIS EVENING. COULD SEE SOME FOG IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS FOR MONDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. ALL WANT
TO SLIP A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TUE...THEN TRIES TO LIFT IT EAST/NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. GEM/GFS SPLIT THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY...TAKING A PIECE NORTH OF THE AREA...AND HANGING A
SOUTHERN PIECE OVER THE PLAINS. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT ISN/T OVERLY
CONVERGENT IN THE LATEST SOLUTIONS. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT COULD HELP FUEL SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS/GEM AND EVEN THE NAM
WOULD HOLD ANY PCPN ACROSS MN...PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. SOME
SHOWER CHANCES OVER IA AND WEST INTO THE PLAINS. PREVIOUS EC RUN
FAVORED KEEPING THE SHORTWAVE TOGETHER...THUS STRONGER AND MORE
CONVERGENT TOWARD THE SFC WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE 12Z RUN IS
NOW MORE INLINE WITH THE SPLITTING SOLUTION. WILL LEAN THIS WAY.
THE BIT OF SOUTHERN ENERGY COULD RETROGRADE TO THE WEST WHILE THE
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO ASSERT ITSELF. A SFC HIGH SETS UP SHOP OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...PUTTING THIS REGION UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPS WILL WARM...WITH 850 MB TEMPS CLIMBING FROM AROUND 8 C ON
MONDAY TO 16 C FRI. NAEFS 850 MB TEMP ANOMALIES POINTING TO +2
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FOR THU-SAT...BUT 0-1 LOCALLY. STILL...LOOKS
LIKE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AND
COULD BE A VERY MILD OKTOBERFEST FOR THOSE IN THE LA CROSSE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014
VALLEY FOG FORMATION CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN. THE
TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD AT 04Z WAS 5F...WHICH IS NOT QUITE OPTIMAL
FOR FOG FORMATION...BUT CERTAINLY NOT OUTSIDE THE RANGE WHERE FOG
CAN BE DISCOUNTED. THE WINDS AT KLSE ARE LIGHT AND WERE STARTING
TO SWING AROUND TO A FAVORABLE UP VALLEY FLOW OF EAST/SOUTHEAST.
NO SIGNS OF A HAZE LAYER FORMING OVER THE CITY YET...SO HAVE
PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF THE FOG A LITTLE BIT BUT WITH THE 22.00Z
NAM CONTINUING TO SHOW SATURATION OCCURRING AND THE 22.03Z RAP NOW
SHOWING THIS AS WELL...STILL FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT FOG WILL
DEVELOP. ONCE THIS DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT WINDS AS THE SURFACE HIGHS DRIFTS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1155 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1113 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014
TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF RAIN ARE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE CWA. ONE
IS ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN
OBSERVED AND NO LIGHTNING. THE OTHER IS TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE CLOSER TO THE MIDLVL LOW CENTER AND THERE IS ISOLATED
EMBEDDED TSTMS. THE QUESTION THIS AFTN IS HOW MUCH CLEARING AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM
SHOW LI VALUES OF AROUND -3C TO -4C ALONG THE WY-NE BORDER AND
EASTWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE AT 00Z. COMBINED WITH MODEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR (AROUND 30 KTS) COULD SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS WITH
SMALL HAIL. THE HRRR ALSO INDICATES A FEW HIGHER REFLECTIVITY
CORES DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AFTER 23Z. THUS...ADDED
THE MENTION OF SMALL HAIL INTO THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE
AND FAR EASTERN LARAMIE COUNTY DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014
A FEW SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO BUT HAVING
SOME TROUBLE SURVIVING OFF THE MOUNTAINS SO FAR. MEANWHILE AN
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY AROUND THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD THIS MORNING THEN TURN MORE EASTWARD THROUGH THIS
EVENING EMERGING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. AN IMPULSE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL SWING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTRMS ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER WEAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT A TONGUE OF BETTER INSTABILITY/CAPES 500-100 J/KG/
LOOKS TO NOSE UP OUT OF COLORADO INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE INTO THIS EVENING WHICH WITH MARGINAL SHEAR MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS THERE. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CWA
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER IMPULSE SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA AND A WEAK
PACIFIC FRONT MOVES OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. MAINLY DRY AND
WARM TUESDAY THOUGH ANOTHER MODEST SHORTWAVE CLIPPING NORTHEAST
PARTS OF THE CWA MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THAT AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY AND WARMER WEDS AS AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES
AND BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014
SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. 700MB TEMPERATURES RESPOND AS WELL...CLIMBING TO
+14C AND EVEN +16C ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CARBON AND ALBANY
COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS UP FROM +10C TO +12C
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER
AND ALMOST SUMMER LIKE WITH 90S IN THE PANHANDLE AND MID 80S OUT
WEST. GOING TO BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AS WELL WITH SUNNY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
WEATHER BEGINS TO CHANGE SOME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODELS
INITIALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO NEVADA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. GFS MUCH FASTER...BY ROUGHLY
12 TO 18 HOURS ON THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW. NEW ECMWF
SLOWER AND HAS THE LOW NOT MOVING INTO NEVADA UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. GFS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ECMWF SOLUTION HAS SHOWERS MOVING INTO
CARBON COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DID A BLEND OF THE TWO
MODELS FOR POPS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY
NIGHT. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014
AVIATION CONCERNS ARE FOCUSED IN THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS OF THE
TERMINAL AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES THROUGH. 17-18Z RADAR
RETURNS SHOW FIRST BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS LIFTING ACROSS THE WRN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SITES...WITH THE 2ND PRECIP BAND APPROACH KLAR.
PREDOMINATED THE INITIAL BAND OF PRECIP AT KAIA AND KCDR. THE 2ND
BAND OF PRECIP WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THE AIR
MASS DESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...WAS CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO ADD A TEMPO GROUP TO KLAR...WITH VCTS ELSEWHERE. WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY NEED TO ADD SOME TEMPO GROUPS TO OTHER SITES EAST OF
THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER LESS CONFIDENT ON TIMING AND
PLACEMENT AT THIS TIME. LOW PRESSURE AREA PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING WEST TO EAST. OUTSIDE OF
THE TEMPO -TSRA GROUP AT KLAR...HAVE KEPT AREA TERMINALS VFR AT
THIS POINT...WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THESE SOME AREAS WILL SEE
MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS FOR
THE MOST PART. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN
AREAS THEN LESS WIND ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AND WEDS. SCTD SHOWERS
AND TSTRMS TODAY WITH ACTIVITY MOVING EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FINCH
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...RE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
532 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014
A FEW SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO BUT HAVING
SOME TROUBLE SURVIVING OFF THE MOUNTAINS SO FAR. MEANWHILE AN
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY AROUND THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD THIS MORNING THEN TURN MORE EASTWARD THROUGH THIS
EVENING EMERGING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. AN IMPULSE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL SWING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTRMS ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER WEAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT A TONGUE OF BETTER INSTABILITY/CAPES 500-100 J/KG/
LOOKS TO NOSE UP OUT OF COLORADO INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE INTO THIS EVENING WHICH WITH MARGINAL SHEAR MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS THERE. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CWA
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER IMPULSE SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA AND A WEAK
PACIFIC FRONT MOVES OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. MAINLY DRY AND
WARM TUESDAY THOUGH ANOTHER MODEST SHORTWAVE CLIPPING NORTHEAST
PARTS OF THE CWA MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THAT AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY AND WARMER WEDS AS AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES
AND BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014
SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. 700MB TEMPERATURES RESPOND AS WELL...CLIMBING TO
+14C AND EVEN +16C ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CARBON AND ALBANY
COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS UP FROM +10C TO +12C
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER
AND ALMOST SUMMER LIKE WITH 90S IN THE PANHANDLE AND MID 80S OUT
WEST. GOING TO BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AS WELL WITH SUNNY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
WEATHER BEGINS TO CHANGE SOME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODELS
INITIALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO NEVADA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. GFS MUCH FASTER...BY ROUGHLY
12 TO 18 HOURS ON THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW. NEW ECMWF
SLOWER AND HAS THE LOW NOT MOVING INTO NEVADA UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. GFS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ECMWF SOLUTION HAS SHOWERS MOVING INTO
CARBON COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DID A BLEND OF THE TWO
MODELS FOR POPS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY
NIGHT. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014
LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWING AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEAST. SHOULD BE INTO THE SOUTH
LARAMIE RANGE HERE BY SUNRISE. FORTUNATELY...LATEST HRRR SHOWING
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THIS AREA OF SHOWERS. SO
FLIGHT OPERATIONS SHOULD NOT BE OVERLY IMPACTED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS FOR
THE MOST PART. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN
AREAS THEN LESS WIND ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AND WEDS. SCTD SHOWERS
AND TSTRMS TODAY WITH ACTIVITY MOVING EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1154 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA
LIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...WITH ARM OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE EXTENDING TO ITS N AND E
ADVECTING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED AT
KCAG EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...AND KCYS/KGJX 88D RETURNS SUGGEST
THIS MOISTURE HAS MADE IT INTO THE SIERRA MADRES AND ADJACENT WRN
FOOTHILL LOCATIONS. 20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1026MB ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA WITH RETURN FLOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND A
WELL DEFINED SFC TROF BANKED UP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SNOWY
RANGE. LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS SFC TROF HAS COMBINED WITH 250+
J/KG OF SBCAPE AS ANALYZED FROM SPC MESOANALYSIS TO SPARK A COUPLE
OF POCKETS OF DEEPER CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF CENTENNIAL/
WOODS LANDING/ALBANY OVR THE PAST FEW HOURS. LOW CENTER WILL REACH
IDAHO BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH ARM OF MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUING
FROM SW TO NE INTO THE CWFA. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SHOULD SEE THESE LOWER AND THICKEN
OVERNIGHT. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT...SO WILL SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS WELL. HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME FOG TO
THE SRN LARAMIE RANGE PER LATEST HRRR OUTPUT. LIGHTNING WAS EVIDENT
ACROSS SW COLORADO LAST NIGHT...SO IT MAKES SENSE TO KEEP IT
TONIGHT UP HERE TONIGHT. 12Z MODEL OUTPUT HAS TRENDED SLOWER IN
SPREADING RAIN CHANCES OUT ONTO THE ERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL LIKELY
NOW HOLD OFF NOW UNTIL SOMETIME MONDAY MORNING.
UPPER LOW WOBBLES THRU THE COWBOY STATE ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL
EFFECTIVELY SHARPEN AND ENHANCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE
PREFRONTAL SFC TROF/PACIFIC FRONT. BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON
MONDAY WILL BE TIED CLOSELY TO THE LOCATION OF THIS TROF...WHICH
WILL BE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IN THE MORNING BEFORE PUSHING
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE MONDAY. PROGD INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
LOOK FAIRLY MEAGER...WITH SBCAPES TOPPING OUT AROUND 500 J/KG.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER WAVE COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION...WOULD EXPECT PERHAPS SOME MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE SOME FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY
NIGHT.
UPPER-LOW WILL DEPART DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST. OTHERWISE...
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY TURN A BIT BREEZY AND WINDS TURN WEST BEHIND
THE DEPARTING PREFRONTAL SFC TROF/PACIFIC FRONT. WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 35 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY WILL BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS CLOUD COVER PROHIBITS THE AMOUNT OF
INSOLATION. EVEN SO...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S/LOW 80S.
HIGHS WILL WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO ON TUESDAY...YIELDING MID
70S TO MID 80S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON WED AND THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO RISE TO
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
ON WED WITH WEAK SFC GRADIENTS AND FLOW ALOFT. NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR
THURS EXCEPT THAT SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY DURING
THE AFTN ACROSS THE PLAINS DUE TO PRESSURE FALLS OVER MONTANA. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DIFFERENCES AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THE GFS IS YET AGAIN THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
WESTERN UPPER TROUGH...MOVING ITS AXIS TO NEAR UTAH BY SAT.
WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS PROGGED BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SAT NIGHT...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SNOW OVER THE MTNS. THE ECMWF
SHOWS A CUTOFF OVER CALIFORNIA ON SAT WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY
DELAY A COOLDOWN AND IS A MUCH DRIER SOLN. WITH SUCH BIG
DIFFERENCES ALMOST A WEEK OUT DECIDED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ON
SAT BUT KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SAT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS FOCUSED MAINLY OVER
THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS AT 06Z...WITH A BREAK IN THE ACTION OVER
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY OVER COLORADO TO STEADILY
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYO AFTER
08Z WITH DRY CONDITIONS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AS THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SCT IFR STRATUS OVER KCYS AFTER
08Z IN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW. IN ADDITION...WINDS AT MOST
SITES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS LIKELY
THROUGH THE MORNING. GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH T-STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND CONTINUING THRU THE EARLY EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MINIMAL THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RELATIVELY GOOD CHANCES
OF WETTING RAINS TO THE DISTRICTS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
DO NOT ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS...HOWEVER A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH WILL BE A POSSIBILITY IN THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS/STORMS. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUE-FRI.
EVEN SO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE STILL ONLY EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT NEAR 20 PERCENT.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
335 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
ALONG WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS WILL CONTINUE A DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF
TROPICAL AIR ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE AND AT ANYTIME. THE HRRR WHICH TYPICALLY IS A
RELIABLE HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODEL HAS BEEN STRUGGLING THE
PAST TWO DAYS IN RAINFALL PATTERN SOLUTIONS. TONIGHT IS NO
EXCEPTION WHERE IT LACKS THE RECOGNITION OF ACTIVITY OVER THE
SURROUNDING WATERS. SO ONE CANNOT PLACE MUCH FAITH IN ITS
DEPICTION OF VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 12
TO 15 HOURS. IN SAYING THAT, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
CONTINUE IN THE 2+ INCH RANGE AND ALONG WITH INTERACTING
BOUNDARIES AND THE LARGE SYNOPTIC FEATURES LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT. THE LOW WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH ROTATES SOUTH
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE LOCATED
OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN WEST. AS THIS OCCURS, A RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WILL BUILD WEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SOME MID
LEVEL WARMING OCCURRING BUT COUNTERACTING THIS WILL BE A LARGE
PLUME OF MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ACROSS FLORIDA WITH PWAT VALUES REMAINING AT
2 INCHES OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. AS THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST, THE STEERING
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST-NORTHWEST SO THE HIGHEST POPS
COULD SHIFT TO THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BUT
WITH SUCH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT CONTINUING IT APPEARS THAT AT
LEAST HIGH END CHANCE OR EVEN LIKELY POPS WILL STILL BE IN ORDER
ALONG THE EAST COAST.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD, BUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WHICH WILL PLACE SOUTH FLORIDA
BACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINING
IN PLACE SO HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST.
&&
.MARINE...
A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO RATHER BENIGN SEAS WITH 2-3 FEET OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND 2 FEET OR LESS IN THE GULF.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 77 88 77 / 60 30 70 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 78 88 80 / 50 30 60 50
MIAMI 87 77 87 78 / 60 30 70 40
NAPLES 87 75 84 76 / 60 20 70 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
354 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
THE FORECAST CONUNDRUM FOR THIS EVENING IS WHAT TO DO WITH
SPATIOTEMPORAL ARRANGEMENTS OF POPS. LARGELY BIASED POP ARRANGEMENT
TO THE MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND 4 KM NAM. THE GFS HAS
CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH THAN THESE MODELS AS AN OUTLIER. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A TROUGH AXIS THAT IS
DRAPED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. FARTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST, DRIER AIR HAS WORKED ITS WAY IN WITH CLEAR SKIES, SO AM
MORE DUBIOUS TO CONVECTION FORMING. THE CAVEAT TO THIS IS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO WHERE CUMULUS IS STARTING TO BUBBLE. THIS ACTIVITY
MIGHT NOT REACH OUR AREA AND THE PROBLEM WITH THAT IS THAT THE LOW
LEVEL JET FOR TONIGHT IS DISPLACED/FORECAST TO THE SOUTHEAST, SO NOT
SURE OUR NORTHWEST ZONES ARE IN THE AREA FOR SUSTAINED LATE NIGHT
CONVECTION VIA THE LOW LEVEL JET LIKE COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
ANYWAY, HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS FROM LIBERAL TO DODGE CITY TO LARNED
AND POINTS SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BE IN THE BETTER AREA OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT 500-
1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE ALONG WITH ABOUT 30 KT OF BULK SHEAR. THE LARGE
HAIL PARAMETER VIA THE 12Z NAM SOLUTION COMES UP WITH A VALUE OF 4
TO 5, SUGGESTING THAT 1.5" WOULD BE THE MAX FOR UPPER HAIL SIZE
FORECAST DISTRIBUTION. PROBABLY WILL BE SMALLER AS CONVECTION
BECOMES QUASI-LINEAR (AT LEAST SHOWN IN THE MODELS) AND YOU GET
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND HIGHER BENEFICIAL COMPETITION
FOR HAIL EMBRYOS. SPEAKING OF WHICH, WITH A PWAT OF SLIGHTLY UNDER
+2SD, WOULD NOT RULE OUT ANOTHER 1-3" PRECIPITATION HIT FOR
LOCATIONS THAT ARE UNDER TRAINING STORMS. RIGHT NOW THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREA FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
OTHERWISE, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS WITH A PREFERENCE
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY EVENING. MINIMUMS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND MAXIMUMS TOMORROW
WILL BE IN THE 80S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL DAYS
IN A WEAKENED STATE BEFORE FINALLY PROGRESSING INTO THE MIDWEST
AND DEEP SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1500 J/KG, PROVIDED THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
TO INITIATE A STORM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE MINIMAL FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY GIVEN THE LACK OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OR STRONG
SURFACE OR MID LEVEL FORCING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG SYSTEM; HOWEVER, GIVEN
THAT THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM WILL HAVE SHUNTED THE RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO, ONLY MODEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EXIST. IN ADDITION, ALTHOUGH SOME SEVERE WEATHER CAN`T BE RULED
ON LATE MONDAY AND LATE TUESDAY, THE LIMITED MOISTURE MAY PRECLUDE
HIGH-END TYPE SEVERE WEATHER. THIS TIME OF YEAR, WHEN UPPER LEVEL
TEMPERATURES TEND TO BE WARMER THAN IN THE SPRING, YOU OFTEN NEED
VERY RICH MOISTURE TO GET BIG HAIL AND TORNADOES. TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE. DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY
LINGER INTO MID NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY OVER WESTERN UNITED STATES BEFORE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER REGIME WILL PREVAIL FOR THE DDC, GCK, AND
HYS TERMINALS TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING. THE LEE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH TODAY
WHILE THE UPPER DISTURBANCE HELPING TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS THIS
PAST EVENING, SLOWLY BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE SOUTH
WINDS EASE TO AROUND 10 MPH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 86 60 84 60 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 87 60 85 60 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 88 59 84 59 / 30 30 20 20
LBL 87 59 84 60 / 20 20 20 20
HYS 83 59 86 59 / 10 10 10 10
P28 82 61 85 60 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...AJOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
110 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
THE FORECAST CONUNDRUM FOR THIS EVENING IS WHAT TO DO WITH
SPATIOTEMPORAL ARRANGEMENTS OF POPS. LARGELY BIASED POP ARRANGEMENT
TO THE MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND 4 KM NAM. THE GFS HAS
CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH THAN THESE MODELS AS AN OUTLIER. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A TROUGH AXIS THAT IS
DRAPED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. FARTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST, DRIER AIR HAS WORKED ITS WAY IN WITH CLEAR SKIES, SO AM
MORE DUBIOUS TO CONVECTION FORMING. THE CAVEAT TO THIS IS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO WHERE CUMULUS IS STARTING TO BUBBLE. THIS ACTIVITY
MIGHT NOT REACH OUR AREA AND THE PROBLEM WITH THAT IS THAT THE LOW
LEVEL JET FOR TONIGHT IS DISPLACED/FORECAST TO THE SOUTHEAST, SO NOT
SURE OUR NORTHWEST ZONES ARE IN THE AREA FOR SUSTAINED LATE NIGHT
CONVECTION VIA THE LOW LEVEL JET LIKE COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
ANYWAY, HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS FROM LIBERAL TO DODGE CITY TO LARNED
AND POINTS SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BE IN THE BETTER AREA OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT 500-
1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE ALONG WITH ABOUT 30 KT OF BULK SHEAR. THE LARGE
HAIL PARAMETER VIA THE 12Z NAM SOLUTION COMES UP WITH A VALUE OF 4
TO 5, SUGGESTING THAT 1.5" WOULD BE THE MAX FOR UPPER HAIL SIZE
FORECAST DISTRIBUTION. PROBABLY WILL BE SMALLER AS CONVECTION
BECOMES QUASI-LINEAR (AT LEAST SHOWN IN THE MODELS) AND YOU GET
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND HIGHER BENEFICIAL COMPETITION
FOR HAIL EMBRYOS. SPEAKING OF WHICH, WITH A PWAT OF SLIGHTLY UNDER
+2SD, WOULD NOT RULE OUT ANOTHER 1-3" PRECIPITATION HIT FOR
LOCATIONS THAT ARE UNDER TRAINING STORMS. RIGHT NOW THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREA FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
OTHERWISE, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS WITH A PREFERENCE
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY EVENING. MINIMUMS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND MAXIMUMS TOMORROW
WILL BE IN THE 80S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES INTO
THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. AS
THIS OCCURS, SOME OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BREAK OFF FROM THE MAIN WAVE AND RETROGRADE
AS A CLOSED LOW INTO THE MIDWEST. INITIALLY, THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FOR
SOME WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH COULD TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE LACK
OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT, DON`T THINK ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LAST
TOO LONG INTO THE EVENING. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP AGAIN ON THURSDAY EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AS TO
WHETHER THESE STORMS DEVELOP IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS OR REMAIN CONFINED
FARTHER SOUTH.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
OVER THE THE WESTERN STATES IS PROGGED TO LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE UPPER RIDGE GETS EJECTED EASTWARD.
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL BRUSH BY THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRYING OUT SOMEWHAT INTO
THE WEEKEND AND WITH WEAK UPPER FLOW, THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MINIMAL TO NON-EXISTENT. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
INCREASING AGAIN AS THE WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WAVE MOVES OUT
INTO THE PLAINS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF
THIS BUT IT SHOULD BE SOMETIME AROUND LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER REGIME WILL PREVAIL FOR THE DDC, GCK, AND
HYS TERMINALS TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING. THE LEE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH TODAY
WHILE THE UPPER DISTURBANCE HELPING TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS THIS
PAST EVENING, SLOWLY BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE SOUTH
WINDS EASE TO AROUND 10 MPH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 61 85 60 83 / 20 20 20 10
GCK 60 86 60 83 / 20 10 10 10
EHA 60 83 59 82 / 30 10 10 10
LBL 61 85 60 83 / 30 20 20 10
HYS 59 84 59 83 / 10 10 10 10
P28 62 85 60 83 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...AJOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
117 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG AXIS BLDG
INTO THE GREAT LKS IN ADVANCE OF A SHRTWV MOVING NEWD THRU THE
NCENTRAL PLAINS. WITH SFC HI PRES RDG STRETCHING FM OHIO NWWD THRU
THE UPR MIDWEST UNDER THE UPR RDG AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...12Z
PWAT WAS AS LO AS ABOUT 0.50 INCH /ABOUT 70 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ AT
MPX...SKIES ARE MOSUNNY. THERE IS A BACK DOOR COLD FNT SLIPPING
SLOWLY SWWD THRU THRU THE E HALF OF LK SUP ASSOCIATED WITH BLDG HI
PRES NEAR JAMES BAY...BUT THE AIRMASS IS SO DRY THERE ARE NO CLDS
ALONG THIS BNDRY IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY DYNAMIC SUPPORT. H85 TEMPS
ARE AS HI AS 12-13C...SUPPORTING TEMPS THAT HAVE RISEN INTO THE 70S
AWAY FM LK MODERATION. LOOKING UPSTREAM...HI CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH
PLAINS SHRTWV ARE ADVANCING INTO NW WI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON TEMPS AND
EXPECTED CLD COVER/POTENTIAL FOR ANY SHOWERS LATER ON WED OVER AT
LEAST THE FAR WRN CWA IN ADVANCE OF DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU THE
PLAINS.
LATE TDAY/TNGT...ALTHOUGH BACK DOOR COLD FNT REINFORCED BY LK BREEZE
FORMATION/INLAND HEATING MAY SLIP INTO THE CWA BORDERING LK SUP FM
THE KEWEENAW E TOWARD WHITEFISH PT LATE THIS AFTN...SUBSIDENCE/DRY
AIRMASS WL LIMIT IMPACT TO SOME LOCAL COOLING NEAR THE SHORE.
OTRW...HI CLDS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHRTWV MOVING NEWD THRU THE PLAINS
WL ARRIVE OVER AT LEAST THE W HALF OF UPR MI OVERNT. THE COMBINATION
OF THESE INCRSG HI CLDS/STRENGTHENING SSW H925 FLOW TO 25 KTS LATE
UNDER A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT CLOSER TO INCOMING SHRTWV WL LIMIT THE
DIURNAL TEMP FALL OVER THE W. THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP MAY
NOT SEE TEMPS FALL BLO 50. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS NEAR 40 AT
THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS OVER THE E UNDER WEAKER GRADIENT/LINGERING
DRIER AIR. MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG FCST IN THE FCST FOR THE E HALF
WITH FVRBL DIURNAL COOLING.
WED...AS SHRTWV MOVES INTO NE MN/NW WI BY LATE AND SOME DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC OVERSPREADS UPR MI...AT LEAST MID/HI CLDS WL BE
THICKENING SW-NE THRU THE DAY. A NUMBER OF THE MODELS GENERATE SOME
LGT PCPN OVER THE FAR W LATE IN THE AFTN WHERE THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES A DEEPER INCRS IN MSTR UNDER THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT HOW QUICKLY THE NEAR SFC LYR WL
MOISTEN...THE NAM AND GFS BOTH INDICATE PWAT WL INCRS TO 1.25-1.35
INCH OR ABOUT 175 PCT OF NORMAL. SO INTRODUCED SOME LO CHC POPS INTO
THE FAR W LATE IN THE DAY. INCRSG CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL RISE IN
TEMP TO THE 60S AT MOST PLACES DESPITE STEADY S WIND THAT MAINTAINS
H85 TEMPS IN THE 10-12C RANGE. THE HIEST TEMPS MOST LIKELY TO REACH
AOA 70 WL BE OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E AWAY FM MODERATION OFF LK MI
AND WHERE THE CLDS WL THICKEN LATER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TEMP WISE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID AND UPPER 70S. THE COOLEST
READINGS WILL BE FOUND ALONG LAKE MI...ON S WINDS. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE ON THOSE DAYS WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...AND THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE W HALF. THIS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500MB THROUGH THAT WILL BE SHIFTING FROM W
LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.P. BY 12Z
THURSDAY. KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE W HALF. THE
SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND WITH NO REAL PULL OF MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF...LIMITED PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED. THE WEAKENING TROUGH
WILL SINK SE THURSDAY...WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
DAY.
AT THAT POINT...THE SIZABLE 500MB RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM MUCH OF THE
W AND CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. A SFC TROUGH
SET UP N OF LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY MAY SINK ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON
SUNDAY. WENT WITH COOLER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT
STILL MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS MOVING
ACROSS MORE OF N UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...A
FEW MORE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS COME TUESDAY AS THE MAIN 500MB RIDGE EXITS TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLDS FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND WED
IN ADVANCE OF A DISTURBANCE MOVING NE FM THE PLAINS. OTHERWISE THE
DRY LLVL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT HI PRES WL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS TO ALL 3 TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHRA IS
POSSIBLE AT KIWD TOWARD WED EVENING. WL PUT IN VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THRU
THIS COMING WEEKEND AND COOL LAKE WATERS/HI STABILITY...EXPECT WINDS
NO HIGHER THAN 20 KTS THRU SUN.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
456 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 454 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
NEDOR CAMS IN THE VALLEY AND SATELLITE CONFIRM DENSE FOG IS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING. THE NAM AND HRRR MODELS INDICATE THE FOG WOULD
LIFT BY 15Z THIS MORNING SO A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN PLACE
UNTIL 14Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE SFC TROF ACROSS NCNTL NEB MOVES EAST ONLY
SLIGHTLY TODAY SETTING UP LIGHT NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE WEST AND
CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS IN THE EAST. THIS TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO ERN NEB TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
FCST AREA.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY FOLLOW THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 50S. SFC OBS INDICATE NO SIGN OF FOG AS
ADVERTISED BY THE NAM AND HRRR VISIBILITY PRODUCTS...CONDITIONS WILL
BE MONITORED AS TEMP DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE 0-2 DEGREES AT 08Z.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS COME MAINLY AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD AS A QUIET
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS QUITE
SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS STARTING MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK SO CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST LOWERS
INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS USED
FOR THE FORECAST.
THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE
EVOLUTION OF THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE STRENGTH OF
THIS TROUGH WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY THE RIDGE TO THE EAST WHICH WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY THING SLIGHTLY COMPLICATING
THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY IS WHAT INFLUENCE THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HAVE AS IT GETS
STUCK UNDER THE LONGWAVE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY AND RETROGRADES. FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
THIS TROUGH WILL BE PLACED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. AT THIS POINT...MODELS CONTINUE
TO KEEP SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AT THE SURFACE WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S ARE
EXPECTED/ SO EVEN WITH SOME ENHANCED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY. THE MAIN
INFLUENCE WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES. THE TROUGHS PLACEMENT WILL PUSH
THE WARMER AIR UNDER THE THERMAL RIDGE NORTH...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE WARMEST AIR LOOKING TO GO FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH HEDGES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. AREAS OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL SEE TEMPERATURE POTENTIALS BEING MUCH COOLER
CUE TO THE COOLER AIR ALOFT. FORECAST CHANGES WERE MINIMAL FROM
THE PREVIOUS OUTPUT...KEEPING THE MID RANGE FORECAST DRY AND WARM.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 80S AND LOW 90S FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH UPPER 70S TO MID 80S FOR SATURDAY. WITH THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED...WILL
NEED TO PAY ATTENTION FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...DEWPOINTS STAY HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM DROPPING TO CRITICAL LEVELS BUT SHOULD KEEP
AN EYE ON THEM DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS POINT...FUELS ARE
NOT CURED WHICH SHOULD HELP MANY AREAS FROM REACHING CRITICAL OR
EVEN NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS.
NOW ONTO THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW AND
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND AND TRANSITION EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT THE CLOSED LOW
WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST...HOWEVER THE
TIMING OF THIS EVOLUTION IS DIFFERENT AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/GEM WITH
THE ECMWF BEING QUICKEST AND THE GEM SLOWEST WITH THIS
PROGRESSION. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL BRING ABOUT DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO NEBRASKA. AT THIS
TIME...THE GFS BRINGS AN INITIAL WAVE OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS LAG AND DON`T PRODUCE
ANY PRECIPITATION LOCALLY UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS EVEN HAS
SLOWED FROM PRIOR MODEL RUNS WHICH AT ONE POINT HAD SUGGESTED RAIN
BEGINNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY SO EXPECTING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK. COVERAGE MAY NOT BE HIGH
IN ALL PERIODS...BUT CHANCES ARE RAIN WILL BE OBSERVED IN SOME
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA MOST DAYS. THE NEXT CONCERN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST...BUT
UNTIL THE TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
STAY NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...LOWS IN THE 40S/50S.
GOING LATER IN THE WEEK...BEYOND THIS FORECAST IT IS LOOKING
LIKELY FOR TEMPERATURES TO DIP DOWN BELOW NORMAL AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES BY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT BOTH THE KLBF
AND KVTN TERMINALS WITH VARIABLE WINDS AT UNDER 10 KTS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ036-037-
059.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
252 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE SFC TROF ACROSS NCNTL NEB MOVES EAST ONLY
SLIGHTLY TODAY SETTING UP LIGHT NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE WEST AND
CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS IN THE EAST. THIS TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO ERN NEB TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
FCST AREA.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY FOLLOW THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 50S. SFC OBS INDICATE NO SIGN OF FOG AS
ADVERTISED BY THE NAM AND HRRR VISIBILITY PRODUCTS...CONDITIONS WILL
BE MONITORED AS TEMP DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE 0-2 DEGREES AT 08Z.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS COME MAINLY AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD AS A QUIET
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS QUITE
SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS STARTING MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK SO CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST LOWERS
INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS USED
FOR THE FORECAST.
THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE
EVOLUTION OF THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE STRENGTH OF
THIS TROUGH WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY THE RIDGE TO THE EAST WHICH WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY THING SLIGHTLY COMPLICATING
THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY IS WHAT INFLUENCE THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HAVE AS IT GETS
STUCK UNDER THE LONGWAVE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY AND RETROGRADES. FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
THIS TROUGH WILL BE PLACED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. AT THIS POINT...MODELS CONTINUE
TO KEEP SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AT THE SURFACE WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S ARE
EXPECTED/ SO EVEN WITH SOME ENHANCED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY. THE MAIN
INFLUENCE WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES. THE TROUGHS PLACEMENT WILL PUSH
THE WARMER AIR UNDER THE THERMAL RIDGE NORTH...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE WARMEST AIR LOOKING TO GO FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH HEDGES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. AREAS OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL SEE TEMPERATURE POTENTIALS BEING MUCH COOLER
CUE TO THE COOLER AIR ALOFT. FORECAST CHANGES WERE MINIMAL FROM
THE PREVIOUS OUTPUT...KEEPING THE MID RANGE FORECAST DRY AND WARM.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 80S AND LOW 90S FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH UPPER 70S TO MID 80S FOR SATURDAY. WITH THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED...WILL
NEED TO PAY ATTENTION FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...DEWPOINTS STAY HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM DROPPING TO CRITICAL LEVELS BUT SHOULD KEEP
AN EYE ON THEM DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS POINT...FUELS ARE
NOT CURED WHICH SHOULD HELP MANY AREAS FROM REACHING CRITICAL OR
EVEN NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS.
NOW ONTO THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW AND
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND AND TRANSITION EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT THE CLOSED LOW
WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST...HOWEVER THE
TIMING OF THIS EVOLUTION IS DIFFERENT AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/GEM WITH
THE ECMWF BEING QUICKEST AND THE GEM SLOWEST WITH THIS
PROGRESSION. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL BRING ABOUT DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO NEBRASKA. AT THIS
TIME...THE GFS BRINGS AN INITIAL WAVE OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS LAG AND DON`T PRODUCE
ANY PRECIPITATION LOCALLY UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS EVEN HAS
SLOWED FROM PRIOR MODEL RUNS WHICH AT ONE POINT HAD SUGGESTED RAIN
BEGINNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY SO EXPECTING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK. COVERAGE MAY NOT BE HIGH
IN ALL PERIODS...BUT CHANCES ARE RAIN WILL BE OBSERVED IN SOME
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA MOST DAYS. THE NEXT CONCERN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST...BUT
UNTIL THE TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
STAY NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...LOWS IN THE 40S/50S.
GOING LATER IN THE WEEK...BEYOND THIS FORECAST IT IS LOOKING
LIKELY FOR TEMPERATURES TO DIP DOWN BELOW NORMAL AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES BY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT BOTH THE KLBF
AND KVTN TERMINALS WITH VARIABLE WINDS AT UNDER 10 KTS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1137 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING NEAR THE NEB/S DAKOTA BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PUSHING EAST WITH STILL
SOME LINGER STRATUS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. MEANWHILE A SFC
TROUGH/WIND SHIFT IS PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. WINDS
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM INTO
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WARMEST ACROSS THE SW. FAR EASTERN CWA
STILL IN THE 60S DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS. A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NW NEB...INTO N
CENTRAL.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES DUE TO THE
TRENDS IN THE ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE BEING OBSERVED WITH THE BACK LINE ROUGHLY
FROM NORTHEAST LINCOLN COUNTY UP THROUGH HOLT COUNTY. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS CUSTER COUNTY AT THE PRESENT
TIME WITH SHOWERS AND WEAK ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE COMING HOURS AND THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDED THAT
DIRECTION ACCORDINGLY. WITH LOSS OF SUN...SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE...HOWEVER MODELS ARE SHOWING
AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHICH
MAY CONTINUE TO BRING LIFT TO THE REGION AND CONTINUE THE ACTIVITY
INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL QUICKLY VEER
EASTWARD SO BELIEVE ALL SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
LOCAL AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY IS
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE TROUGH LINE. NEAR TERM
MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAKENING CAP WITH A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS TO
FIRE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE RUC IS MORE ROBUST THAN THE OTHER
MODELS...ALTHOUGH BOTH THE HRRR OR THE NAM DO DEVELOP A LINE. SHEAR
IS MARGINAL...30 KTS OR LESS...AND NARROW BAND OF LESS THAN A 1000
J/KG OF CAPE SO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO...ESPECIALLY FROM HAIL AS FREEZING
LEVELS IS CLOSE TO 13000 FT ASL.
THE ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST WITH ANY STORMS PUSHING EAST OF
THE CWA BY MORNING. MEANWHILE SOME DRY AIR TO FILL IN BEHIND THE
TROUGH. MODELS SUGGESTING A DRY LAYER TO TRAP SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS N CENTRAL TOWARDS MORNING WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME
FOG...AND CONTINUED TO MENTION PATCHY FOG AFTER SHOWERS END.
TOMORROW DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND A NICE WARM UP ACROSS THE BOARD AS RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. MOST AREAS SHOULD PUSH INTO THE 80S...WITH THE FAR
WESTERN ZONES NEARING 90.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST AND A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. THESE HIGHS TO BE AT LEAST 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH THURSDAY TO INCREASE TO 15 TO
25 MPH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MILD EACH NIGHT WITH LOWS ALSO 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM 55 TO 60.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO WYOMING AND MONTANA BY MONDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF
IS ABOUT 12-18 HRS FASTER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAN THE 12Z GFS.
WITH THE 12Z GEM IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...PREFERENCE
LIES WITH THE ECMWF. LATEST SUPERBLEND POPS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 30 POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT LOOK ON
TRACK. BY TUESDAY...H5 HEIGHT DIFFERENCE ARE NEAR 120 METERS
ACROSS IDAHO AND UTAH. THIS IS DUE TO THE GFS WITH ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION AND THE ECMWF FORECASTING AN UPPER TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY
AND UPPER 70S SUNDAY...COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 70S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT BOTH THE KLBF
AND KVTN TERMINALS WITH VARIABLE WINDS AT UNDER 10 KTS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BROOKS
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
445 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND
MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVE BACK OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1201 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 955 PM TUESDAY...OVERALL INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF RAINFALL
HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...THE 3 KM
HRRR AND RAP MODELS ALL INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN INCREASE
IN INTENSITY AROUND 09Z OR SO AND HAVE INDICATED A SLIGHT DROP IN
POP/QPF FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...RAMPING BACK UP TOWARD
MORNING. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN
OFFSHORE THAT SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE MORNING. CONTINUED WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME CONCERN ABOUT ROTATING
CELLS LATER TONIGHT AS SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES COAST WITH GOOD
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY DEVELOPING NEAR THE TROUGH.
BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES...HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD AS MANY INLAND SPOTS ALREADY
IN THE UPPER 50S WITH LOW 60S COAST...EXCEPT UPPER 60S OUTER
BANKS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DROP MUCH FURTHER GIVEN THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INLAND, RAIN WILL CONTINUE HEAVY AT
TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IN AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE. UPPER
LOW TO THE WEST GRADUALLY WEAKENS/FILLS AND DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS
NE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHUD SEE AT LEAST LINGERING LIGHT RAIN
INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER INLAND AREAS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER RAIN AND FLOODING NEARER THE COAST CONTINUING. EXPECT
LITTLE IF ANY APPRECIABLE LOW/MID LEVEL DRYING DURING THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN WEAK MIXING SO CLOUDY SKIES LIKELY LINGER THRU THE
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CAP HIGHS IN THE MID OR UPPER 60S INLAND.
WARM SOUTH FLOW AT THE COAST MAY BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S
DESPITE PRECIP.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM WED...ONE MORE DAY OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND THEN
DRIER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FILLING UPR CLOSED LOW WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY...
LEAVING IN ITS WAKE WEAKENING BROAD SFC TROUGH. WITHOUT MUCH FLOW TO
KICK OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THINK THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AROUND AS WELL AS SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE
OBX AND DOWNEAST CARTERET...TAPERING BACK TO LOW CHANCE FOR THE
COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES. BOTH ECMENS MEAN AND SREF MEAN SUPPORT THIS
WETTER SOLN FOR THUR. REGARDLESS...THE OVERCAST SKIES AND LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS WILL PROHIBIT DECENT MIXING AND KEEP TEMPS DOWN AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HIGH. MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 70S
INLAND TO MID 70S ON THE COAST.
FOR FRIDAY...SOME SEMBLANCE OF DRYING OCCURS AS WEAK NNW FLOW OCCURS
COURTESY OF HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH REESTABLISHING ITSELF.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TOWARDS THE 80 DEGREE MARK WITH SOME
SUNSHINE FINALLY MAKING ITS APPEARANCE.
BROAD RIDGING IS STILL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS BEING SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH WITH WEAK HIGH PRES
REMAINING IN CONTROL. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80 DEGREE RANGE
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...NEAR CLIMO FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.
COMPLICATED PATTERN BEYOND THE WEEKEND AS WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL
PREVAIL. SOME INDICATION THAT BROAD TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO REPLACE
THE RIDGING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIFFERENCES AMONGST DETERMINISTIC
GFS/ECM AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LEAD TO UNCERTAINTY
AND HAVE GONE NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM WEDNESDAY...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS 09Z-12Z AS RAIN SPREADS INLAND FROM COAST. CIGS
EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING BUT KEPT AT LOW END OF MVFR
FOR NOW. PCPN WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTN BUT MOIST LOW LVLS AND
DECREASING WINDS WILL KEEP LOWER CIGS INTO EVENING WITH SOME
DECREASING VSBYS AS WELL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM WED...POOR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THUR.
WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY PRODUCE CONTINUED IFR CIGS WITH PLENTIFUL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS E NC...AS WELL AS ON
AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS. SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY FRI INTO
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1201 AM WEDNESDAY...POSTED SCA FOR ALBEMARLE SOUND AND
ALLIGATOR RIVER UNTIL NOON WED. OBS ARE INDICATING FREQUENT GUSTS TO
25 KT ERN ALB SOUND AND MOUTH OF ALLIGATOR RIVER...AND FCST
INDICATES THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING. REST OF FCST ON
TRACK.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 10 PM TUESDAY...STRONG GUSTY N/NNE WINDS CONTINUE...GUSTING
AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS AT DIAMOND BUOY AND WELL INTO THE 20S AT OTHER
SPOTS. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO CURRENT ADVISORIES WHICH CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY ON THE FAR NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN WATERS AND PAMLICO
SOUND AND INTO THURSDAY IN THE MIDDLE WATERS. SEAS ALSO CONTINUE
ROUGH WITH 7 FEET 13 MILES EAST OF OREGON INLET AND 8 FEET AT
DIAMOND BUOY. WINDS WILL VEER E/SE AND SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE TROF TO THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY BUT 6+ FT SEAS WILL
LINGER THRU WED AFTN.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM WED...LIGHT AND VAR WINDS EXPECTED THUR AS SFC TROUGH
REMAINS STATIONARY NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS. HIGH PRES FINALLY BEGINS
TO KICK OUT THE SFC TROUGH ON FRI WITH NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS MAY AGAIN APPROACH SCA CRITERIA
AND WAVE WATCH IV AND LOCAL NWPS BOTH ADVERTISING 6 FT SEAS ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS...WHICH MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ045>047-080-081-
092>095-098-103-104.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ130-131-135-
156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...JBM/TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
211 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND
MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVE BACK OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1201 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 955 PM TUESDAY...OVERALL INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF RAINFALL
HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...THE 3 KM
HRRR AND RAP MODELS ALL INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN INCREASE
IN INTENSITY AROUND 09Z OR SO AND HAVE INDICATED A SLIGHT DROP IN
POP/QPF FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...RAMPING BACK UP TOWARD
MORNING. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN
OFFSHORE THAT SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE MORNING. CONTINUED WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME CONCERN ABOUT ROTATING
CELLS LATER TONIGHT AS SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES COAST WITH GOOD
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY DEVELOPING NEAR THE TROUGH.
BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES...HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD AS MANY INLAND SPOTS ALREADY
IN THE UPPER 50S WITH LOW 60S COAST...EXCEPT UPPER 60S OUTER
BANKS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DROP MUCH FURTHER GIVEN THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INLAND, RAIN WILL CONTINUE HEAVY AT
TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IN AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE. UPPER
LOW TO THE WEST GRADUALLY WEAKENS/FILLS AND DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS
NE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHUD SEE AT LEAST LINGERING LIGHT RAIN
INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER INLAND AREAS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER RAIN AND FLOODING NEARER THE COAST CONTINUING. EXPECT
LITTLE IF ANY APPRECIABLE LOW/MID LEVEL DRYING DURING THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN WEAK MIXING SO CLOUDY SKIES LIKELY LINGER THRU THE
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CAP HIGHS IN THE MID OR UPPER 60S INLAND.
WARM SOUTH FLOW AT THE COAST MAY BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S
DESPITE PRECIP.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUE...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN UNSETTLED WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLY ONGOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
MAINLY DRY WITH NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN ENDS WED NIGHT AS LOW PRES AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT WEAKENS MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION. WILL KEEP IN CHANCE POPS
WITH AREA STILL UNDER INFLUENCE OF WEAK UPR LEVEL ENERGY AND
WEAKENING UPR LOW. CHANCES OF HEAVIER WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AND ONLY SCT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ASSOC WITH DRIER
AIR UNDER WEAK SUBSIDENCE. UPR LVL RIDGING EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOW POPS FCST.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. NIGHTTIME
TEMPS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 60S UNDER LIGHT TO CALM WIND
CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM WEDNESDAY...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS 09Z-12Z AS RAIN SPREADS INLAND FROM COAST. CIGS
EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING BUT KEPT AT LOW END OF MVFR
FOR NOW. PCPN WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTN BUT MOIST LOW LVLS AND
DECREASING WINDS WILL KEEP LOWER CIGS INTO EVENING WITH SOME
DECREASING VSBYS AS WELL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUE...SUB VFR CONDS EXPECTED WED NIGHT WITH SCT TO
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON THU AS RAIN
AND LOW CLOUDS EXIT THOUGH SCT SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
COULD BE LATE NIGHT FOG OR STRATUS LATE IN THE WEEK EACH NIGHT AS
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM WITH PARTLY CLOUDY OR CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1201 AM WEDNESDAY...POSTED SCA FOR ALBEMARLE SOUND AND
ALLIGATOR RIVER UNTIL NOON WED. OBS ARE INDICATING FREQUENT GUSTS TO
25 KT ERN ALB SOUND AND MOUTH OF ALLIGATOR RIVER...AND FCST
INDICATES THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING. REST OF FCST ON
TRACK.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 10 PM TUESDAY...STRONG GUSTY N/NNE WINDS CONTINUE...GUSTING
AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS AT DIAMOND BUOY AND WELL INTO THE 20S AT OTHER
SPOTS. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO CURRENT ADVISORIES WHICH CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY ON THE FAR NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN WATERS AND PAMLICO
SOUND AND INTO THURSDAY IN THE MIDDLE WATERS. SEAS ALSO CONTINUE
ROUGH WITH 7 FEET 13 MILES EAST OF OREGON INLET AND 8 FEET AT
DIAMOND BUOY. WINDS WILL VEER E/SE AND SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE TROF TO THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY BUT 6+ FT SEAS WILL
LINGER THRU WED AFTN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUE...SCA CONDITIONS WILL END FIRST IN THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THEN THE NORTHERN WATERS AS SLY WINDS DIMINISH TO 5-15 KT
HIGHEST NRN WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE WED
NIGHT. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AGAIN AROUND 15 KT BY THU NIGHT AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS 2-5 FT HIGHEST NRN AND CNTRL
COASTAL WATERS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON STRENGTH OF THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS AND POSSIBILITY EXISTS OF MARGINAL SCA CONDS IN
LATER FORECASTS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ045>047-080-081-
092>095-098-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ130-131-135-156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JBM
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...JAC/TL
AVIATION...JBM/JAC
MARINE...JAC/CTC/BTC/JBM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1231 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
THE MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER AS THE
WESTERN EDGE OF LOW STRATUS HAS NOW PUSHED OVER MINOT. IT ALSO
APPEARS THAT THE TIMING REFERENCED IN THE 939 PM UPDATE WAS TOO
FAST. LOOK FOR WINDS TO HOLD ON UNTIL 12 OR 13 UTC BASED ON THE
LATEST LOW STRATUS/FOG SATELLITE CHANNEL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
NOW AFTER SUNDOWN AND THE END OF MIXING, THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
(925 MB) HAVE DOMINATED THE STRATUS MOVEMENT AND FORMATION. AS
SUCH THE CLOUDS HAVE MOVED WEST ABOUT 20 MILES SINCE 730 PM. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR AWHILE UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL TRANSPORT NO
LONGER TRENDS WESTWARD...WHICH MAY CONTINUE THROUGH 10Z OR SO. SO
THIS UPDATE SPREAD CLOUDS WESTWARD ABOUT 30 MILES AND STABILIZED
TEMPS UNDER THE CLOUDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
TRANSIENT UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
TO MINNESOTA AND OPEN BY 7 AM CDT WED. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST HAS PRETTY MUCH LOCKING IN THE CLOUDS OVER
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER SO FAR TODAY. THIS EVENING
THE H850/H925 WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AND WARM ADVECTION SETS IN
AROUND SUNSET CENTRAL. THIS SHOULD BRING AN EROSION OF THE WESTERN
BOUNDARY OF CLOUDS BUT SOLID CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY TROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
STRATUS IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND A MILD
WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
WILL FOLLOW THE 18 UTC RAP FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH
TONIGHT...WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT STRATUS FIELD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 1930 UTC.
EXPECT THE CURRENT STRATUS FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A 925-850 MB
MOISTURE AXIS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING...SLOWLY ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DID ADD A PATCHY FOG MENTION ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK WHERE WINDS WILL BE WEAKEST
TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...A WARM WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY...TO THE UPPER 80S FAR WEST. THE ONE CAVEAT IN THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS IF THE STRATUS DOES LINGER A BIT LONGER
THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WHICH COULD
HOLD HIGHS CLOSER TO THE LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
WARM AND DRY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THROUGH THE WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WED-FRI. THIS WILL
BE THE WARMEST WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES WE`VE SEEN SINCE EARLY
AUGUST.
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...
THE MODELS (12 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM) CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE
ALSO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER THAT MOST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY. HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN
ENTER THE FORECAST MONDAY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
STRATUS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL ND WHERE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN IFR CONDITIONS KBIS-KJMS-KMOT THROUGH
12Z. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER BUT PATCHY FOG COULD
EXTEND IFR CONDITIONS PAST 12Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER
13Z. OTHERWISE VFR KDIK-KISN.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...SCHECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
215 AM PDT WED SEP 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO NW OREGON AND SW
WASHINGTON TODAY. THE RAIN WILL DECREASE AND TURN TO SHOWERS BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING AND THE CASCADES THIS
EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
COOL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRIER WEATHER AND SLIGHT
WARMING EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON THIS
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. SATELLITE
DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS VALUES UP TO 2 INCHES OFF OF THE
OREGON COAST. THE FRONT HAS BEEN PRODUCING RAIN RATES BETWEEN 0,1 TO
0.3 INCH PER HOUR. THE COAST AND COAST RANGE HAVE RECEIVED 1 TO 1.75
INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE MAIN RAIN BAND STRETCHED
EAST OF THE COAST RANGE AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THE RAINFALL TOTALS FOR
INTERIOR AREAS ARE RISING EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE RAIN WILL MOVE OVER THE CASCADES AROUND NOON TODAY AND RAIN RATES
WILL DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN WILL TURN TO SHOWERS FOR THE
COAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...AND FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY MID
MORNING. STRATIFORM RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER THE CASCADES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON RAIN FOR THURSDAY...BUT THE UPPER TROUGH
OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR
SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TROUGH
WILL ALSO SUSTAIN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S. MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...THE NEXT FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO ARRIVE ON OUR
DOORSTEPS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE MODELS VARY ON HOW MUCH
RAIN THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE...WITH GFS FORECASTING MUCH LESS
RAINFALL THAN THE ECMWF. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BELOW THE SEASONAL NORMALS.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
NEXT WEDNESDAY. AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...WIDE MIX OF CONDITIONS OF MVFR AND VFR...WHERE WORST
CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS. HIGHER TERRAIN
WILL BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED IN CLOUDS AND RAIN THIS AM. BACK EDGE
OF RAIN/FRONTAL BAND WILL PUSH ONSHORE AROUND 15Z TO 16Z...AND
THEN TO THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS BY 20Z. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOSTLY VFR CIGS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
POCKETS OF MVFR. CONDITIONS OVER CASCADES IMPROVING AFTER 21Z.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...RAIN WITH MIX OF VFR AND OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL AROUND 18Z...THEN WILL SEE RAIN DECREASE WITH
CIGS IMPROVING BACK TO VFR BY 21Z. ROCKEY
&&
.MARINE...FRONT WILL PUSH ONSHORE AROUND 3 AM TODAY. WINDS ARE
EASING A BIT...ENOUGH TO LOWER THE GALE. SO WILL REPLACE WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHERE WINDS WILL BE
20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. WINDS WILL EASE MORE LATER THIS
EVENING. A THE MAIN SURFACE LOW PASSES WELL TO THE NW OF THE
REGION...PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
FETCH OF LARGER...LONG PERIOD SWELL NOW SEEN WELL TO THE WEST OF
THE REGION. BUOY 5...LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES W OF ASTORIA...HAS
BEEN RUNNING AROUND 22 TO 24 FT AT 15 SEC AND PEAKED AT 26 FT
AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS GIVES SUPPORT TO MODEL GUIDANCE OF 17 TO 20
FT SWELL REACHING THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY...BUT HIGHEST WILL BE
OVER THE OUTER NORTH WATERS.
SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AND THU...BUT WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH FRI.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT ON ALL
COASTAL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THIS MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1037 PM PDT TUE SEP 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
More autumn like weather is on the way for the remainder of the
work week. A slow moving cold front will bring an increased
chance of rain to central Washington for Wednesday and Thursday,
then showers will spread to eastern Washington and north Idaho
for Friday and Saturday. Cooler temperatures will follow the cold
front Thursday and Friday. A slight warming and drying trend is
expected for next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: forecast generally looks on track. The bulk of the
precipitation is now toward central and western Washington, with
lingering showers still lifting through the northeast WA and
north ID mountains. The occluded low remains offshore and a slow-
moving front lingers near the coast. Moisture will continue to
feed along this boundary to keep the highest precipitation chances
in the aforementioned areas of central and western Washington.
However I will keep chances going across northeast WA and north
ID, as far southeast as northern Spokane county with the HRRR and
suggestion of a subtle jet streak coming up the east side of the
parent trough may help blossom additional showers overnight. /J.
Cote`
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A moist southerly flow will continue ahead of a slow-
moving longwave trough/cold front edging into western Washington.
That set-up will keep the highest precipitation chances toward
EAT/MWH, especially as the atmospheric layer becomes saturated
through the overnight into Wednesday. Some periods of MVFR cigs
are possible, especially closer to EAT. A few showers are
possible through about 08Z near GEG to COE, but overall the risk
here should wane. Late Wednesday afternoon/early evening hours,
additional shower chances may creep toward GEG. The southeast TAF
sites will be mainly dry with VFR conditions. /J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 57 74 52 71 48 70 / 10 20 30 30 30 20
Coeur d`Alene 55 76 50 74 49 71 / 20 10 20 30 30 30
Pullman 55 78 49 72 48 70 / 10 10 10 30 30 30
Lewiston 60 83 56 77 54 73 / 10 10 10 20 30 30
Colville 54 67 50 74 45 73 / 50 70 50 60 50 20
Sandpoint 53 74 48 73 45 68 / 40 20 20 30 40 20
Kellogg 54 79 50 74 48 68 / 30 10 10 20 40 30
Moses Lake 57 71 53 71 46 74 / 30 60 50 50 20 10
Wenatchee 58 68 55 68 50 74 / 60 70 40 60 20 10
Omak 57 68 52 69 45 72 / 70 80 40 60 40 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
724 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE EAST THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES NORTH UP THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL DRIFT OUT
TO SEA FRIDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STLT INDICATES HIGH CLOUDS JUST OFF THE S SHORE OF LI SPREADING
RAPIDLY NWD. COMBINED WITH THE HRRR IT SPELLS A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY.
HAVE UPDATED THE FCST ACCORDINGLY.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST TODAY...ALLOWING FOR
INCREASING HIGH THEN MID CLOUDS FROM SW TO NE...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON. APPEARS THAT WILL NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.
FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 925 TO 875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES ON
EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
GFS IS A CLEAR OUTLIER IN HOW FAR EAST/PROGRESSIVE WITH LOW TO MID
LEVEL TROUGH. THUS HAVE DISCARDED GFS DURING THIS TIME FRAME IN
FAVOR OF A BLEND OF MORE OVERALL CONSISTENT NAM/SREF/ECMWF/CMC.
THE NAM LIKELY IS UP TO ITS OLD TRICK OF BEING TOO SLOW WITH THE
ONSET OF OVERRUNNING RAIN...SO HAVE GONE WITH A FASTER ONSET TIME
THAN THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST - CLOSER TO A CMC/ECMWF/SREF BLEND.
APPEARS RAIN DEVELOPS FROM SW TO NE TONIGHT...POSSIBLY BECOMING
LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...BEFORE TAPERING
OFF THURSDAY NIGHT FROM W TO E. PLEASE SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION
OF THE AFD FOR FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS.
WILL SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTY E-NE WINDS FROM TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH COASTAL AREAS SEEING GUSTS OF 30 TO POSSIBLY
35 MPH AT TIMES FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE
PERSISTENT STRONG E-NE FLOW WILL CAUSE SOME ISSUES WITH COASTAL
FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION. REFER TO THE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS. THE ROUGH SURF AND E-NE FLOW WILL
ALSO RESULT IN A MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON
THURSDAY.
FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES - WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...EXCEPT NEAR NORMAL IN THE NYC HEAT ISLAND.
FOR HIGHS THURSDAY A BLEND OF 2 PARTS EACH MIXING DOWN FROM 975
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS/NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES/MET GUIDANCE
WITH 1 PART MAV GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
USED A BLEND OF 2 PARTS EACH MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND 1 PART MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT -
WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE NYC HEAT
ISLAND...AND AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FRI-TUE. THIS DATA
WAS INCORPORATED INTO THE OFFICIAL FCST...RESULTING IN ONLY MINOR
CHANGES.
THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING THE H5 TROUGH
THROUGH THE CWA BY FRI AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS EVEN QUICKER. AS A
RESULT...ANY LINGERING RAIN FRI MORNING WOULD QUICKLY EXIT. THE
NAM IS A SLOWER SOLN...BUT AT THIS TIME RANGE THE GFS/ECMWF PROGS
ARE FAVORED. WEAK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ACROSS ERN
CT/LI COOLER DUE TO THE ATLANTIC SOURCE REGION.
DRY WX SAT-SUN WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION. H85 TEMPS IN THE
13-14C RANGE SHOULD YIELD LOWER 80S W AND INTERIOR AND 70S COASTS.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM POSSIBLE FOR MON-TUE. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
DO DIVERGE SLIGHTLY FOR THIS PERIOD. THE GFS BRINGS SOME WEAK WAA
ALOFT AND SHOWERS MON NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT TUE. THE ECMWF HAS
NO WAA PRECIPITATION AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT WHICH COMES THROUGH LATE MON. WILL NOT JUMP ON THE FASTER
AND DRIER ECMWF SOLN YET...AND MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR MON NIGHT
AND TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WIT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TODAY. WIND BECOMES
EASTERLY AROUND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT THIS
EVENING. COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF LIGHTER GUSTS/WINDS 00Z-03Z
THURSDAY BUT TOO LOW CONFIDENCE TO ADD ANYTHING TO TAFS. TIMING OF
THE INCREASING WIND GUSTS COULD CHANGE BASED ON THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST TONIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING WED NIGHT
TO AROUND 2-3K FT. RAIN CHANCES START LATE TONIGHT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE TODAY.
TIMING OF HIGHEST GUSTS COULD BE +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE IN MOD RAIN AFTER 06Z THU.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OFF HIGHEST GUSTS COULD BE +/- AN HOUR
OR TWO.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE TODAY.
TIMING OF HIGHEST GUSTS COULD BE +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE IN MOD RAIN AFTER 06Z THU.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF HIGHEST GUSTS COULD BE +/- AN HOUR
OR TWO.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF HIGHEST GUSTS COULD BE +/- AN HOUR
OR TWO.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD BE A FEW KT STRONGER THAN FORECAST
THIS EVENING IF THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS MORE THAN
FORECAST...GUSTS UP TO 25KT POSSIBLE. TIMING OF HIGHEST GUSTS COULD
BE +/- AN HOUR OR TWO.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED NIGHT-THURS...LOW PRES TRACKS UP THE COAST. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WITH RAIN. NE FLOW 10-15G20-25KT.
.FRI...BECOMING VFR WITH N WINDS 10-15KT G 15-20KT.
.SAT-SUN...VFR WITH LGT WINDS LIKELY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS INCREASE TODAY...WITH SMALL CRAFT GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS THEN DEVELOP ON ALL
WATERS TONIGHT. IT APPEARS THERE IS AT LEAST A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
THURSDAY...WITH CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT GUSTS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE WATERS. THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AND PUT UP A GALE WATCH THERE ON THURSDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WATERS HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.
IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT SMALL CRAFT GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ON ALL
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE HIGH
ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AT THIS TIME.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN WATERS AND FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN
WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN FCST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS
SAT-TUE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SIX-TENTHS TO 1 AND TWO-THIRDS INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...UP TO 3 INCHES OR SO POSSIBLE. THE LOWER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND THE HIGHEST
OVER EASTER LONG ISLAND. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
EXACTLY HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL AND WHERE ANY BANDING WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA...IF ANY. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE MOST LIKELY
IMPACT FROM THIS RAIN WILL BE MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE/URBAN AREAS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING...BUT THIS THREAT IS TOO LOW TO PLACE IN THE HWO AT THIS
TIME.
BASIN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
DUE TO THE DEPARTING LOW...AND AGAIN IN THE LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME
FRAME WITH A WEAK FRONT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW FROM TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH A NEW MOON WEDNESDAY...WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE THREAT IS
HIGHEST...MAINLY ALONG VULNERABLE AREAS IN LOWER NY HARBOR...BACK
BAYS OF SOUTHERN NYC/WESTERN LONG ISLAND...AND ALONG WESTERN LONG
ISLAND SOUND.
MINOR BEACH EROSION WILL BE LIKELY WITH A 2 DAY DURATION OF ROUGH
SURF SWEEPING ALONGSHORE FROM EAST TO WEST...FROM TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1058 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
.UPDATE...FALL ARRIVED 2 DAYS AGO AND IS BEING FELT ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA BUT NOT SO FAST HERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA. A SURFACE FRONT
BISECTS THE STATE WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 59F AT
TALLAHASSEE TO 75F AT MIAMI. THE 12Z MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWS A
CONTINUED MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE WITH PW AT 2.06 INCHES.
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING WAS
AIDED BY A MID LEVEL VORT AND THIS FEATURE IS NOW EVEN SHOWING UP
IN KAMX REFLECTIVITY DATA WITH A SPIN SEEN OFF THE UPPER KEYS.
THIS WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD BUT THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDINESS HAS SO
FAR LIMITED CONVECTION OVER LAND. THE CLOUDS ARE THINNING AND AS
THE VORT LIFTS NORTH, SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR ASSOCIATED WITH
SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE. EVEN DESPITE SOME
SUBSIDENCE...GIVEN A MOIST AND TYPICALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE,
AM STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AS SUCH, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING, EXCEPT TO ADJUST THE NEAR TERM
WITH CURRENT AND FORECAST TRENDS. THE PRIMARY POTENTIAL IMPACT
TODAY WILL BE ISOLATED STREET FLOODING DUE TO POTENTIAL LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014/
AVIATION...
THE ATMOSPHERE IS UNSTABLE TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES. SO
WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING BEFORE GOING TO
VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITE. AT THIS
TIME...THE TEMPO GROUP WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE TAF SITES DUE TO THE
UNKNOWN TIMING OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ONCE THE
ACTIVITY GETS GOING...THEN WILL ADD THE TEMPO GROUP TO THE TAF
SITES.
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE EASTERLY DIRECTION AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES ALONG WITH THE CEILING AND VIS IN
THE VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...ONCE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GET GOING LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE VIS AND
CEILING WILL FALL INTO THE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY PASSAGE OF THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM.
AVIATION...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
ALONG WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS WILL CONTINUE A DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF
TROPICAL AIR ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE AND AT ANYTIME. THE HRRR WHICH TYPICALLY IS A
RELIABLE HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODEL HAS BEEN STRUGGLING THE
PAST TWO DAYS IN RAINFALL PATTERN SOLUTIONS. TONIGHT IS NO
EXCEPTION WHERE IT LACKS THE RECOGNITION OF ACTIVITY OVER THE
SURROUNDING WATERS. SO ONE CANNOT PLACE MUCH FAITH IN ITS
DEPICTION OF VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 12
TO 15 HOURS. IN SAYING THAT, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
CONTINUE IN THE 2+ INCH RANGE AND ALONG WITH INTERACTING
BOUNDARIES AND THE LARGE SYNOPTIC FEATURES LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT. THE LOW WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH ROTATES SOUTH
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE LOCATED
OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN WEST. AS THIS OCCURS, A RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WILL BUILD WEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SOME MID
LEVEL WARMING OCCURRING BUT COUNTERACTING THIS WILL BE A LARGE
PLUME OF MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ACROSS FLORIDA WITH PWAT VALUES REMAINING AT
2 INCHES OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. AS THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST, THE STEERING
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST-NORTHWEST SO THE HIGHEST POPS
COULD SHIFT TO THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BUT
WITH SUCH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT CONTINUING IT APPEARS THAT AT
LEAST HIGH END CHANCE OR EVEN LIKELY POPS WILL STILL BE IN ORDER
ALONG THE EAST COAST.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD, BUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WHICH WILL PLACE SOUTH FLORIDA
BACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINING
IN PLACE SO HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST.
MARINE...
A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO RATHER BENIGN SEAS WITH 2-3 FEET OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND 2 FEET OR LESS IN THE GULF.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 77 88 77 / 60 30 70 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 86 78 88 80 / 50 30 60 50
MIAMI 87 77 87 78 / 60 30 70 40
NAPLES 87 75 84 76 / 60 20 70 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
732 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
.AVIATION...
THE ATMOSPHERE IS UNSTABLE TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES. SO
WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING BEFORE GOING TO
VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITE. AT THIS
TIME...THE TEMPO GROUP WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE TAF SITES DUE TO THE
UNKNOWN TIMING OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ONCE THE
ACTIVITY GETS GOING...THEN WILL ADD THE TEMPO GROUP TO THE TAF
SITES.
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE EASTERLY DIRECTION AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES ALONG WITH THE CEILING AND VIS IN
THE VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...ONCE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GET GOING LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE VIS AND
CEILING WILL FALL INTO THE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY PASSAGE OF THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
ALONG WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS WILL CONTINUE A DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF
TROPICAL AIR ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE AND AT ANYTIME. THE HRRR WHICH TYPICALLY IS A
RELIABLE HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODEL HAS BEEN STRUGGLING THE
PAST TWO DAYS IN RAINFALL PATTERN SOLUTIONS. TONIGHT IS NO
EXCEPTION WHERE IT LACKS THE RECOGNITION OF ACTIVITY OVER THE
SURROUNDING WATERS. SO ONE CANNOT PLACE MUCH FAITH IN ITS
DEPICTION OF VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 12
TO 15 HOURS. IN SAYING THAT, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
CONTINUE IN THE 2+ INCH RANGE AND ALONG WITH INTERACTING
BOUNDARIES AND THE LARGE SYNOPTIC FEATURES LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT. THE LOW WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH ROTATES SOUTH
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE LOCATED
OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN WEST. AS THIS OCCURS, A RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WILL BUILD WEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SOME MID
LEVEL WARMING OCCURRING BUT COUNTERACTING THIS WILL BE A LARGE
PLUME OF MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ACROSS FLORIDA WITH PWAT VALUES REMAINING AT
2 INCHES OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. AS THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST, THE STEERING
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST-NORTHWEST SO THE HIGHEST POPS
COULD SHIFT TO THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BUT
WITH SUCH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT CONTINUING IT APPEARS THAT AT
LEAST HIGH END CHANCE OR EVEN LIKELY POPS WILL STILL BE IN ORDER
ALONG THE EAST COAST.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD, BUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WHICH WILL PLACE SOUTH FLORIDA
BACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINING
IN PLACE SO HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST.
MARINE...
A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO RATHER BENIGN SEAS WITH 2-3 FEET OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND 2 FEET OR LESS IN THE GULF.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 77 88 77 / 60 30 70 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 78 88 80 / 50 30 60 50
MIAMI 87 77 87 78 / 60 30 70 40
NAPLES 87 75 84 76 / 60 20 70 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...54/BNB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
609 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 454 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
NEDOR CAMS IN THE VALLEY AND SATELLITE CONFIRM DENSE FOG IS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING. THE NAM AND HRRR MODELS INDICATE THE FOG WOULD
LIFT BY 15Z THIS MORNING SO A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN PLACE
UNTIL 14Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE SFC TROF ACROSS NCNTL NEB MOVES EAST ONLY
SLIGHTLY TODAY SETTING UP LIGHT NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE WEST AND
CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS IN THE EAST. THIS TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO ERN NEB TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
FCST AREA.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY FOLLOW THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 50S. SFC OBS INDICATE NO SIGN OF FOG AS
ADVERTISED BY THE NAM AND HRRR VISIBILITY PRODUCTS...CONDITIONS WILL
BE MONITORED AS TEMP DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE 0-2 DEGREES AT 08Z.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS COME MAINLY AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD AS A QUIET
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS QUITE
SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS STARTING MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK SO CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST LOWERS
INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS USED
FOR THE FORECAST.
THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE
EVOLUTION OF THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE STRENGTH OF
THIS TROUGH WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY THE RIDGE TO THE EAST WHICH WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY THING SLIGHTLY COMPLICATING
THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY IS WHAT INFLUENCE THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HAVE AS IT GETS
STUCK UNDER THE LONGWAVE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY AND RETROGRADES. FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
THIS TROUGH WILL BE PLACED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. AT THIS POINT...MODELS CONTINUE
TO KEEP SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AT THE SURFACE WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S ARE
EXPECTED/ SO EVEN WITH SOME ENHANCED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY. THE MAIN
INFLUENCE WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES. THE TROUGHS PLACEMENT WILL PUSH
THE WARMER AIR UNDER THE THERMAL RIDGE NORTH...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE WARMEST AIR LOOKING TO GO FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH HEDGES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. AREAS OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL SEE TEMPERATURE POTENTIALS BEING MUCH COOLER
CUE TO THE COOLER AIR ALOFT. FORECAST CHANGES WERE MINIMAL FROM
THE PREVIOUS OUTPUT...KEEPING THE MID RANGE FORECAST DRY AND WARM.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 80S AND LOW 90S FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH UPPER 70S TO MID 80S FOR SATURDAY. WITH THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED...WILL
NEED TO PAY ATTENTION FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...DEWPOINTS STAY HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM DROPPING TO CRITICAL LEVELS BUT SHOULD KEEP
AN EYE ON THEM DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS POINT...FUELS ARE
NOT CURED WHICH SHOULD HELP MANY AREAS FROM REACHING CRITICAL OR
EVEN NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS.
NOW ONTO THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW AND
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND AND TRANSITION EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT THE CLOSED LOW
WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST...HOWEVER THE
TIMING OF THIS EVOLUTION IS DIFFERENT AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/GEM WITH
THE ECMWF BEING QUICKEST AND THE GEM SLOWEST WITH THIS
PROGRESSION. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL BRING ABOUT DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO NEBRASKA. AT THIS
TIME...THE GFS BRINGS AN INITIAL WAVE OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS LAG AND DON`T PRODUCE
ANY PRECIPITATION LOCALLY UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS EVEN HAS
SLOWED FROM PRIOR MODEL RUNS WHICH AT ONE POINT HAD SUGGESTED RAIN
BEGINNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY SO EXPECTING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK. COVERAGE MAY NOT BE HIGH
IN ALL PERIODS...BUT CHANCES ARE RAIN WILL BE OBSERVED IN SOME
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA MOST DAYS. THE NEXT CONCERN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST...BUT
UNTIL THE TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
STAY NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...LOWS IN THE 40S/50S.
GOING LATER IN THE WEEK...BEYOND THIS FORECAST IT IS LOOKING
LIKELY FOR TEMPERATURES TO DIP DOWN BELOW NORMAL AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES BY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
THE NAM AND HRRR MODELS SHOW THE FOG OVER PARTS OF NCNTL NEB LIFTING
BY 15Z. VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS THERAFTER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ036-037-
059.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
939 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY TRIMMED POPS
ACROSS THE EAST AS MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY
MAXIMA OVER S MN SHIFTS EAST. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS POINT WITH
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES FROM BAUDETTE TO FERGUS FALLS....VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS. MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLEARING TREND. SLOWED
DOWN CLEARING THRU 18Z-22Z....LATEST HRRR DOES STILL BRING
CLEARING INTO THE RRV IN THE 22Z PERIOD. THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD AND PRECIP TRENDS. AS EXPECTED UPPER LOW
IS VERY NEAR FARGO. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THIS WAVE IS FROM
FOSSTON TO WAHPETON TO SISSETON MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEAST. LOW
CLOUDS COVER A LARGE PART OF THE AREA AS MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
FLOW AT 850-925 MB IS OVER THE AREA. LAST AREA TO SEE CLOUDS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE FAR NRN RRV. QUESTION OF THE DAY IS HOW WILL
CLOUDS BEHAVE. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST BUT DO EXPECT
LINGERING ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTN OVER PARTS OF
NW/WCNTRL MN. LOW CLOUDS EXTEND WEST OF MINOT-BISMARCK. NAM/GFS
SHOW SLOW CLEARING OF THE DEEPER 850-925 MB MOISTURE FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY...REACHING THE RED RIVER VALLEY MID AFTN BUT NOT THE
FAR EAST TIL AFTER 00Z. WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND TODAY THIS MAY
BE TOO FAST EVEN...BUT ON THE OTHER HAND WILL HAVE NO HIGH CLOUDS
ABOVE THE STRATOCU DECK ON THE WEST SIDE OF IT SO CHANCES FOR THE
SUN TO WORK ITS MAGIC AND OPEN UP SOME CLEARING MAY TAKE PLACE.
FOR NOW KEPT IDEA VIA MODEL SUPERBLEND AND NEIGHBORS IN BRINGING
CLEARING TO GFK-FAR 21Z-22Z PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT
ON TEMPS KEEPING THEM IN THE 60S IN MINNESOTA BUT WITH ENOUGH SUN
WESTERN FCST AREA TO RISE INTO THE MID OR UPPER 70S. RED RIVER
VALLEY KEPT LOW 70S BUT THIS HINGES ON CLOUDS.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN FCST AREA MAY BEEN
CLOUDS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME CLEARING. OTHERWISE IDEA IS FOR A
GENERALLY CLEAR SKY RRV AND WEST. THURSDAY WILL SEE 500 MB HEIGHTS
RISING AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EXPECTING SUNSHINE AND WARM WEATHER
WITH A LOT OF LOW-MID 80S RRV AND WEST WITH 70S EAST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY AND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
OR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATE A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
CROSSING THE REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST OF THE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE NRN PART OF THE AREA...AND DRAG A COLD FRONT JUST OVER THE
CANADIAN BORDER...WITH CHANCES FOR -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS THE NORTH.
BEHIND THE WAVE...THE UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPS
AND LOW POP CHANCES THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS IN THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECT
VERY LITTLE CHANGE THRU THE MORNING WITH ONLY SLOW RISES IN THE
CLOUD BASES. TIMING OF CLEARING INTO DVL THEN GFK/FAR THIS AFTN IS
HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE AND SUBJECT TO FURTHER UPDATES. ATTM IDEA FROM
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS IS FOR CLEARING TO WORK INTO DVL REGION
18Z-20Z AND INTO THE RRV NR 22Z...KEPT BEMIDJI MVFR THRU WED
NIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
706 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES FROM BAUDETTE TO FERGUS FALLS....VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS. MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLEARING TREND. SLOWED
DOWN CLEARNIG THRU 18Z-22Z....LATEST HRRR DOES STILL BRING
CLEARING INTO THE RRV IN THE 22Z PERIOD. THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD AND PRECIP TRENDS. AS EXPECTED UPPER LOW
IS VERY NEAR FARGO. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THIS WAVE IS FROM
FOSSTON TO WAHPETON TO SISSETON MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEAST. LOW
CLOUDS COVER A LARGE PART OF THE AREA AS MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
FLOW AT 850-925 MB IS OVER THE AREA. LAST AREA TO SEE CLOUDS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE FAR NRN RRV. QUESTION OF THE DAY IS HOW WILL
CLOUDS BEHAVE. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST BUT DO EXPECT
LINGERING ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTN OVER PARTS OF
NW/WCNTRL MN. LOW CLOUDS EXTEND WEST OF MINOT-BISMARCK. NAM/GFS
SHOW SLOW CLEARING OF THE DEEPER 850-925 MB MOISTURE FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY...REACHING THE RED RIVER VALLEY MID AFTN BUT NOT THE
FAR EAST TIL AFTER 00Z. WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND TODAY THIS MAY
BE TOO FAST EVEN...BUT ON THE OTHER HAND WILL HAVE NO HIGH CLOUDS
ABOVE THE STRATOCU DECK ON THE WEST SIDE OF IT SO CHANCES FOR THE
SUN TO WORK ITS MAGIC AND OPEN UP SOME CLEARING MAY TAKE PLACE.
FOR NOW KEPT IDEA VIA MODEL SUPERBLEND AND NEIGHBORS IN BRINGING
CLEARING TO GFK-FAR 21Z-22Z PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT
ON TEMPS KEEPING THEM IN THE 60S IN MINNESOTA BUT WITH ENOUGH SUN
WESTERN FCST AREA TO RISE INTO THE MID OR UPPER 70S. RED RIVER
VALLEY KEPT LOW 70S BUT THIS HINGES ON CLOUDS.
INGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN FCST AREA MAY BEEN
CLOUDS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME CLEARING. OTHERWISE IDEA IS FOR A
GENERALLY CLEAR SKY RRV AND WEST. THURSDAY WILL SEE 500 MB HEIGHTS
RISING AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EXPECTING SUNSHINE AND WARM WEATHER
WITH A LOT OF LOW-MID 80S RRV AND WEST WITH 70S EAST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY AND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
OR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATE A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
CROSSING THE REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST OF THE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE NRN PART OF THE AREA...AND DRAG A COLD FRONT JUST OVER THE
CANADIAN BORDER...WITH CHANCES FOR -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS THE NORTH.
BEHIND THE WAVE...THE UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPS
AND LOW POP CHANCES THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS IN THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECT
VERY LITTLE CHANGE THRU THE MORNING WITH ONLY SLOW RISES IN THE
CLOUD BASES. TIMING OF CLEARING INTO DVL THEN GFK/FAR THIS AFTN IS
HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE AND SUBJECT FO FURTHER UPDATES. ATTM IDEA FROM
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS IS FOR CLEARING TO WORK INTO DVL REGION
18Z-20Z AND INTO THE RRV NR 22Z...KEPT BEMIDJI MVFR THRU WED
NIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST WED SEP 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...LIMITED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL THEN INCREASE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER TO START THE NEW
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN INTO THE .9 TO 1.1 RANGE
TODAY. STILL HANGING ON TO ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED MAINLY MOUNTAIN
STORMS.
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE INFLUENCES FROM THAT IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX THAT STARTED WAY DOWN BY PUERTO VALLARTA YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. IT HELD TOGETHER WELL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING
AS IT PUSHED PAST MAZATLAN BEFORE DIEING OFF NEAR LOS MOCHIS.
HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW HAS HELPED CONTINUE THE IMPULSE INTO
SOUTHERN SONORA WITH A CHILD COMPLEX FIRING JUST SOUTH OF GUAYMAS.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG OUTFLOW AND MCV
ACTIVITY WITH AN EYE TOWARD LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST AND
WEST OF TUCSON. THE INFLUENCES FROM THIS FEATURE HAVE BEEN PUSHING
UP THE GULF AT ABOUT 30KTS AND WHILE IT WILL HAVE ADDITIONAL
DIFFICULTY UNDER THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE DECAYING RIDGE OVER
US...IT SHOULD NOT BE DISCOUNTED AND THE ECWMF HINTS AT IT`S
INFLUENCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE THE OVERALL INCREASING MOISTURE TREND WILL CONTINUE TO SET
UP WITH NICE SURFACE STREAMLINE TRENDS FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
INTO WESTERN TO CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY NOTED ON LATEST HRRR OUTPUT.
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE STRONG
LOW NEAR THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA SEES SEVERAL PIECES OF
REINFORCING ENERGY DIG A STRONG EARLY SEASON TROUGH DOWN THE WEST
COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE STRONG TROUGH WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE GREAT BASIN INTO A MID TO
LATE FALL POSITION BEFORE FILLING A BIT AS IT LIFTS THROUGH NORTH OF
US. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL LOSE SOME
INFLECTION AS IT LIFTS ON THE NORTHWEST FLANK OF THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE. A FRAGMENTING SURFACE FRONT WILL EVIDENCE THE INFLUENCES OF
THE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. BEST MOISTURE DYNAMICS COUPLET STILL FOCUSING ON CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ARIZONA...BUT WE SHOULD GET SOME STRONG STORMS AROUND HERE
SATURDAY. STILL WELL ON THE WARM SECTOR SIDE SATURDAY BUT COOLING
SUNDAY WITH COOLEST AIR MASS IN PLACE MONDAY AS DAYTIME HIGHS FALL
FROM THE UPPER 90S LATE THIS WEEK TO THE MID 80S AT TIA BY MONDAY.
MUCH DRIER BEHIND THE TROUGH AND CONSIDERING THE PATTERN CHANGE TO
MUCH LOWER LATITUDE JET NEXT WEEK...NO ADDITIONAL PROSPECTS TO KEEP
THE MONSOON GOING. AFTER THIS WEEKEND WE`RE PROBABLY DONE.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/12Z.
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE IS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED CLOUDS BETWEEN 8 AND 9
THOUSAND FEET WILL DEVELOP IN AND AROUND TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE RULE. OVERNIGHT
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON THE INCREASE. STORMS WILL FAVOR HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY IN AND
AROUND ANY THAT DEVELOP. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
15 MPH THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH ARE
FORECASTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO OUR NORTH.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
MEYER/CANTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
937 AM PDT Wed Sep 24 2014
.Synopsis...
Approaching trough will bring cooler, windy, and wetter weather
for the rest of the week. Cool, unsettled weather may linger
into the weekend.
&&
.Discussion...
Frontal band continues to linger over the Northern CA coastline.
The Eureka forecast office reported 1-2" of rain being measured
in some coastal locations and up to 3" of rain in higher
elevations. This front has been moving very slowly so do not
expect the main precipitation band to impact our CWA until later
tonight. The higher resolution WRF & HRRR models show the
rainband slowly moving across the coastal range between 5-9 pm.
Rain should impact much of the Northern Sacramento valley around
midnight then spread eastward & southward overnight.
One thing we will be watching with the next model run is the
pattern this weekend. The GFS and NAM models are indicating that the
low will move more quickly into the Great Basin, whereas, the
ECMWF has the low lingering over our region through the weekend.
May adjust precipitation on Saturday if the GFS & NAM persist in
this solution. Otherwise, no significant changes to the forecast
this morning. Red Flag Warning remains in effect as we anticipate
increasing southwesterly winds as this front approaches. JBB
Previous Discussion...Ahead of this frontal band, southwest winds are expected
to increase today. Emphasis of winds will be along the northern
Sacramento Valley and eastern Shasta County, as well as Plumas
County mountains and the Sierra. The higher mountain ridges should
see the greatest impact from wind with local southwest wind gusts
as high as 45 mph today. Temperatures will remain near to slightly
below normal today ahead of the frontal band, but will be a few
degrees cooler than yesterday due to a stronger onshore push,
cooler air mass moving inland, and increase in cloud cover.
Models continue to show a slow progression eastward of the low
pressure system, which will result in a slow onset of rainfall for
interior northern California. Current projected precipitable water
values associated with the system are around 1.25 to 1.50 inches
with the frontal band as it pushes over western Shasta County and
the coastal mountains this evening/tonight. Showers are expected
to spread east and south into Thursday and reach the Sierra by
Thursday morning...though main rainfall looks to remain north of
I-80. Winds will continue to be fairly strong over the Sierra
ridges and higher terrain Thursday, but will be accompanied by
periods of rain showers and higher humidity values. Daytime high
temperatures are expected to drop several more degrees Thursday
as the cool system dominates the region.
By Friday and Saturday, the center of the low is forecast to
pass over northern California as it digs south and east. This
will continue an unsettled cool and showery pattern. The cool air
mass aloft with wrap around disturbances may promote some
instability mainly over the mountains on Friday and possibly
Saturday. The GFS is quicker at shifting the low eastward which
could limit thunderstorm development, while the EC, GEM, and NAM
suggest a slower progression of the low with better thunderstorm
potential based on pattern recognition. Therefore, the timing and
placement of thunderstorms is still a bit uncertain. Shen
&&
.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)
Medium range models show discrepancies on how quickly the low
pressure system will exit the region, with GFS being the more
progressive solution. However, it is likely that some lingering
shower activity over the mountains and cooler temperatures will
continue at least through Sunday. In the wake of the trough, very
brief ridging will allow temperatures to warm a few degrees
Monday before NorCal falls under a troughy northwest flow by
Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures look to remain mild through
the extended with drier northerly winds expected. Shen
&&
.Aviation...
Generally VFR conditions with mid and high clouds as Pacific
frontal system approaches the coast. Possible MFR cigs northern
Sacramento valley after 06z tonight. Smoke from King Fire will
bring local IFR/MVFR visibility mainly north and east of the fire
under breezy southwest winds ahead of the frontal system. Increasing
south to southwest winds this afternoon with local surface wind
gusts up around 30 kts over the Sierra Cascade ridges through
early Thursday. South to southwest winds Sacramento valley and
Delta gusting to 20 to 25 knots this afternoon and tonight.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
red flag warning until 8 pm pdt this evening burney basin /
eastern shasta county...west slope northern sierra nevada...
western plumas county/lassen park.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
322 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING AWAY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA NEXT MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW MAY APPROACH THE
REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING.
WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION TIMING THE RGEM AND HRRR ARE DOING OK
TODAY AND HAVE LEANED ON THEM FOR A ROUGH OUTLINE ON THE
PRECIPITATION STARTING TIMES. OVERALL NOT IMPRESSED WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL, THIS LOOKS MORE LIKE A
NICE STEADY MODERATE RAIN. WENT WITH THE LOWER QPF (.75-2 INCHES)
REPRESENTED WELL BY THE SREF FOR STORM TOTALS. THE OVERALL 500MB
HEIGHT PATTERN THIS MORNING SHOWED THE LOW MAY BE MODELED TO FAR
WEST AND THE 12Z MODEL RUNS ON CORRECTED EAST FURTHER OFFSHORE, ANOTHER
INDICATOR IT WILL BE HARD TO GET WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 2
INCHES. FOR TEMPERATURES THEY MAY BE RATHER STEADY AFTER SOME
FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE EVENING AS CLOUDS AND RAIN MOVE IN. WENT
ABOVE MET/MAV GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES AS WELL IN THE 60`S SOUTH
AND 50`S NORTH. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A GUSTY NIGHT AS WELL WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS FROM 10-15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS FROM 20-25 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A DREARY DAY IS IN STORE THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TO OUR NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, LINGERING LIGHT RAIN, DRIZZLE
AND FOG ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE. WE MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH
MAV/MET GUIDANCE VALUES IN THE 60`S PERHAPS NOT HITTING 60 IN THE
POCONOS GIVEN THE LOW CLOUDS. USED TWO METER TEMPERATURES OFF THE
ECMWF IN ADDITION TO THESE GUIDANCE SETS ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AFTER THE LOW PRESSURE PASSAGE BUT
STILL BE STRONG AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
USED THE RFC QPF IN THIS PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION IN THE NEAR
AND SHORT TERM PERIODS WILL LIKELY BE FROM .75-2 INCHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH AFFECTS THE WEATHER IN THE NEAR AND
SHORT TERM PARTS OF THE FORECAST WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY EVENING THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO NORTH EAST INTO FRIDAY.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE EXITING EAST THURSDAY NIGHT SO JUST
SOME CHC POPS ARE IN THE FCST FOR THEN...TAPERING OFF WEST TO SLGT
CHC ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND BERKS COUNTY.
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM LATER FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SETTLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
LATER SUNDAY. THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN MOST AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 50S NORTH AND WEST AND THE UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TUE-WED. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE GFS ARE SOWING
SOME SHOWERS WITH THESE SYSTEMS. WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE WPC OFFERED
POPS FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES FOR MON NIGHT INTO WED WILL
BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S AND
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE COAST CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER TONIGHT REACHING MVFR THRESHOLDS AROUND MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS RAIN WILL BECOME WILL HEAVIER BY SUNRISE POSSIBLY RESULTING
SOME IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 700 AND 1000 FT. A NORTHEAST WIND BETWEEN
50 AND 80 DEGREES AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS,
PERHAPS 25 KNOTS FOR ACY/MIV AND COASTAL REGIONS.
ON THURSDAY THE LOW WILL DEPART. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE HEAVIER
AND STEADIER RAIN ENDING DURING THE MORNING BUT LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AS A RESULT
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BE MVFR OR EVEN HIGH END IFR BETWEEN 700 AND
1000 FEET THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS MAY SHIFT TO MORE
NORTHERLY AS COMPARED TO TONIGHT AROUND 20-40 DEGREES WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 10-15 KNOTS AND HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.
OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR AND SHOWERS
EARLY...MOSTLY EAST.
FRI THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. PATCHY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO MARINE HEADLINES. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE KNOCKING
ON OUR SOUTHERN WATERS DOOR. THIS PERIOD OF GALES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTH TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE LOW LEVEL JET. SEAS OVERALL ARE
VERIFYING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN WAVE WATCH AND WE BUMPED THE GUIDANCE
UP THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH TONIGHT, SO WE CONTINUED THE
ENDING OF GALES SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN UPPER DELAWARE BAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THOUGH SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND OCEAN.
ON THURSDAY, GALE FORCE GUSTS SHOULD BE ENDING NORTHERN ATLANTIC
WATERS EARLY, BUT THEN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
CONTINUE ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN UPPER DELAWARE BAY. IN THE
LOWER DELAWARE BAY, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SEAS MIGHT BE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY EARLY, BUT THEY SHOULD
SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU EARLY SATURDAY...SCA FLAG WILL CONTINUE FOR
AGITATED SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BACK BELOW
SCA CRITERIA DURING FRIDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE MORNING HIGH TIDE SOUTH CAME IN ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE AND WAS
ABOUT A HALF OF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. ON THE OTHER END, THE ESTOFS
SURGE GUIDANCE IS BRINGING DEPARTURES OF GREATER TWO FEET INTO
DELAWARE BAY. THIS IS RUNNING HOT.
LATEST CONSENSUS AND IN HOUSE GUIDANCE SUGGEST ADDING ANOTHER FOOT
TO THOSE DEPARTURES SOUTH FOR THIS EVENING. THIS WOULD GET US RIGHT
AROUND THE THRESHOLD FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. BUT GIVEN THE GALE
FORCE ONSHORE FLOW THINK CONSENSUS WILL VERIFY TOO LOW. PLUS WE HAVE
THE ADDITION OF WAVE ACTION AND LIKELY RAIN DURING THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE TO COMPOUND THE PROBLEM. WE ARE GOING TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY SOUTH OF GREAT EGG INLET NJ FOR CAPE MAY AND CUMBERLAND
COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY AND KENT AND SUSSEX COUNTIES IN DELAWARE.
FARTHER NORTH THE DURATION OF THE ONSHORE FLOW IS LESS AND SURFACE
PRESSURE HIGHER, SO NO ADVISORY FOR THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
THEN WE WILL FLIP THE ADVISORY LOCATION FOR THE SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDE
CYCLE ON THURSDAY MORNING AND ISSUE ONE FROM ATLANTIC COUNTY NORTH
THROUGH MIDDLESEX COUNTY NJ. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE THE STRONGEST
AND MOST PERSISTENT THERE. WHILE THE GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY
CONSERVATIVE, OUR LOCAL IN HOUSE PROCEDURE IS TAKING SANDY HOOK
PRETTY CLOSE TO THE THRESHOLD FOR MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING. SOUTH OF
ATLANTIC COUNTY, WE WILL MONITOR AS ANY SLOWING IN THE RELAXATION OF
THE GRADIENT MIGHT CAUSE ADDITIONAL TIDAL FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE
ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS, BUT DOES NOT ABATE.
THE SAME THINKING HOLDS FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THE
ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAKER, BUT NOT GONE. THE BASELINE WILL BE HIGHER,
BUT ASTRONOMICAL TIDES LOWER. THIS MAY BE A CASE WHERE WE REACH THE
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING THRESHOLD, BUT NOT ADVISORY LEVEL THRESHOLD.
GIVEN THE LOWER CONFIDENCE, WE WILL NOT EXTEND ANY ADVISORIES
THROUGH THAT HIGH TIDE CYCLE. MOST SUSCEPTIBLE LOCATIONS WOULD BE
NORTHERN COASTAL NEW JERSEY.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES AND THE NJ
SHORE IS HIGH THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONCURRENTLY WE WILL BE ISSUING
A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING SOUTH AND
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY NORTH.
ALSO FOR TOMORROW, AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
EXPECTED. EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BE IMPROVING ON
FRIDAY, AN ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NJZ014-
025-026.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
FOR NJZ014-025-026.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
NJZ012>014-020-022-025>027.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY
FOR NJZ024.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR NJZ021-023-024.
DE...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY
FOR DEZ004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ450>452.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-453>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI
SHORT TERM...GAINES/GIGI
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GIGI
RIP CURRENTS...GIGI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
358 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SHALLOW COOL FRONT HAS REMAINED ANCHORED ACROSS SRN ZONES AND HAS
NOT MOVED NORTH OR ERODED AS MUCH AS 00 AND 06Z MODELS DEPICTED PARTLY
WITH HELP OF A TRAPPED STRATUS DECK WHICH NEVER ERODED ACROSS THE
NATURE COAST. POOR LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH HIGH
CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS SOME SUBSIDENCE ON BACKSIDE OF A
DISTURBANCE MVG NORTH ACROSS THE GULF STREAM ALSO COMBINED TO
LIMIT CONVECTION TODAY...HOWEVER SOME HEATING LATE AND PRESENCE OF
THE SFC BOUNDARY HAVE PRODUCED SCT SHRA AND A FEW TSTMS ACROSS
SRN ZONES. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS NRN AREAS HAVE TRIMMED POPS OUT OF NRN COS COMPLETELY
TONIGHT AND LOWERED POPS IN OFFSHORE WATERS AND FAR SRN AREAS AS
WELL. THIS WAS ALSO SUPPORTED BY LATEST LOCAL WRF AND HRRR RUNS.
SEVERAL BOUNDARIES COMING TOGETHER WILL PROVIDE BEST FOCUS ACROSS
THE TAMPA BAY AREA THIS EVENING.
MORE FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT IS ANTICIPATED FOR TOMORROW
AS THE SFC BOUNDARY AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE NW. IN FACT
MODELS AGREE PWS WILL APPROACH 2.25 INCHES BY AFTN AS A WEAK ERLY
WAVE USHERS A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND
WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REACH LEE
COUNTY BY LATE AFTN. THIS WILL PROVIDE HIGH POPS INTO LIKELY RANGE
FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE REGION (ROUGHLY AREAS S OF I4) WHERE
HIGHEST MOISTURE EXISTS. GRADIENT IN MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE LOWER CHCS ACROSS THE NORTH AND SHOW CHCS TAPERING DOWN TO
AROUND 30 IN FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT MORE THAN TODAYS
VALUES WILL HIGHS CLOSER TO 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGH MOISTURE
AMOUNTS COULD LEAD TO SOME HEAVY TROPICAL DONWPOURS AND ISOLATED
2-3" RAINFALL TOTALS.
&&
.AVIATION...NE FLOW COMBINED WITH SHALLOW COOL FRONT AND ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
STRATUS OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH PERHAPS MORE CONFINED TO NRN TAF SITES
(SRQ NORTHWARD). AVN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IFR CIGS SPREADING FROM NE
TO SW ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MID MORNING. SOME LINGERING MVFR CU IS EXPECTED UNTIL
EARLY AFTN AS WELL. RAIN CHCS WILL BE HIGHER TOMORROW WITH GREATER
CHC OF TAF SITES BEING IMPACTED BY SHRA AND TSTMS. HIGHEST CHCS
WILL BE AFTER 18Z.
&&
.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH A TRAILING
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL MAINTAIN A 3-4MB GRADIENT
WITH AN ELEVATED NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OFFSHORE GULF WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...WHERE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL BE POSTED
WITH WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE...AND
SOUTHERN MOST WATERS.
DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEEPEN SOME OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST
SOUTH OF THE NEW ENGLAND AS ANOTHER AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER EASTERN SEA BOARD. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY THE GRADIENT
WILL RELAX WITH A LIGHTER EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH AN ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL TURN WINDS INTO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST NORTHEAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY WITH HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE STORMS.
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT - NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE PENINSULA LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...KEEPING
A MORE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WILL LIFT INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST REGION OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
THEN SLOWLY SHIFT BACK SOUTHWARD AND INTO CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
PENINSULA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...THE AREA REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED WITHIN
THE RAINY SEASON THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIODS. PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 72 88 74 87 / 40 60 40 60
FMY 73 89 74 88 / 30 70 40 70
GIF 72 88 73 88 / 20 60 20 60
SRQ 73 88 74 88 / 40 70 50 60
BKV 69 88 72 88 / 20 50 30 60
SPG 74 88 77 87 / 40 60 40 60
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...88/GITTINGER
LONG TERM...21/JELSEMA
MARINE...57/MCMICHAEL
DECISION SUPPORT...14/MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
145 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
.UPDATE...CLEARING IS TAKING PLACE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE PENINSULA WITH NO CU ON BACK SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL VORT OFF
THE MIAMI-DADE COAST. LOOKS AS THOUGH SUBSIDENCE IS WINNING OUT
TODAY, SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN TO 30% FOR THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS GLADES AND HENDRY
COUNTIES WHERE LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED. UPDATES WERE JUST
SENT. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 134 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014/
AVIATION...
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR HEATING TO OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN AREAS EARLIER THAN THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THEREFORE...THE VCTS WILL BE REMOVE FOR
THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AND REPLACE WITH VCSH FOR REST OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS A KPBI TAF SITE
WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AND COULD AFFECT THE KPBI TAF SITE. THEREFORE...VCTS WILL CONTINUE
FOR KPBI TAF SITE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH VCTS FOR
KAPF TAF SITE.
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AT ALL OF THE TAF STIES THIS AFTERNOON
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...EXCEPT KAPF TAF SITE WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSER
TO SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TRIES TO
DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND SLOWLY.
THE WINDS WILL THEN BE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS AT ALL
OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE STILL SOME SHOWERS AROUND TONIGHT
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SO WILL CONTINUE THE VCSH FOR ALL OF THE TAF
SITES FOR TONIGHT.
THE CEILING AND VIS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES.
AVIATION...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014/
UPDATE...FALL ARRIVED 2 DAYS AGO AND IS BEING FELT ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA BUT NOT SO FAST HERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA. A SURFACE FRONT
BISECTS THE STATE WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 59F AT
TALLAHASSEE TO 75F AT MIAMI. THE 12Z MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWS A
CONTINUED MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE WITH PW AT 2.06 INCHES.
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING WAS
AIDED BY A MID LEVEL VORT AND THIS FEATURE IS NOW EVEN SHOWING UP
IN KAMX REFLECTIVITY DATA WITH A SPIN SEEN OFF THE UPPER KEYS.
THIS WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD BUT THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDINESS HAS SO
FAR LIMITED CONVECTION OVER LAND. THE CLOUDS ARE THINNING AND AS
THE VORT LIFTS NORTH, SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR ASSOCIATED WITH
SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE. EVEN DESPITE SOME
SUBSIDENCE...GIVEN A MOIST AND TYPICALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE,
AM STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AS SUCH, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING, EXCEPT TO ADJUST THE NEAR TERM
WITH CURRENT AND FORECAST TRENDS. THE PRIMARY POTENTIAL IMPACT
TODAY WILL BE ISOLATED STREET FLOODING DUE TO POTENTIAL LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. /GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014/
AVIATION...
THE ATMOSPHERE IS UNSTABLE TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES. SO
WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING BEFORE GOING TO
VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITE. AT THIS
TIME...THE TEMPO GROUP WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE TAF SITES DUE TO THE
UNKNOWN TIMING OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ONCE THE
ACTIVITY GETS GOING...THEN WILL ADD THE TEMPO GROUP TO THE TAF
SITES.
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE EASTERLY DIRECTION AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES ALONG WITH THE CEILING AND VIS IN
THE VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...ONCE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GET GOING LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE VIS AND
CEILING WILL FALL INTO THE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY PASSAGE OF THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM.
AVIATION...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
ALONG WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS WILL CONTINUE A DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF
TROPICAL AIR ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE AND AT ANYTIME. THE HRRR WHICH TYPICALLY IS A
RELIABLE HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODEL HAS BEEN STRUGGLING THE
PAST TWO DAYS IN RAINFALL PATTERN SOLUTIONS. TONIGHT IS NO
EXCEPTION WHERE IT LACKS THE RECOGNITION OF ACTIVITY OVER THE
SURROUNDING WATERS. SO ONE CANNOT PLACE MUCH FAITH IN ITS
DEPICTION OF VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 12
TO 15 HOURS. IN SAYING THAT, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
CONTINUE IN THE 2+ INCH RANGE AND ALONG WITH INTERACTING
BOUNDARIES AND THE LARGE SYNOPTIC FEATURES LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT. THE LOW WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH ROTATES SOUTH
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE LOCATED
OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN WEST. AS THIS OCCURS, A RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WILL BUILD WEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SOME MID
LEVEL WARMING OCCURRING BUT COUNTERACTING THIS WILL BE A LARGE
PLUME OF MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ACROSS FLORIDA WITH PWAT VALUES REMAINING AT
2 INCHES OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. AS THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST, THE STEERING
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST-NORTHWEST SO THE HIGHEST POPS
COULD SHIFT TO THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BUT
WITH SUCH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT CONTINUING IT APPEARS THAT AT
LEAST HIGH END CHANCE OR EVEN LIKELY POPS WILL STILL BE IN ORDER
ALONG THE EAST COAST.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD, BUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WHICH WILL PLACE SOUTH FLORIDA
BACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINING
IN PLACE SO HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST.
MARINE...
A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO RATHER BENIGN SEAS WITH 2-3 FEET OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND 2 FEET OR LESS IN THE GULF.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 85 77 88 77 / 30 30 70 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 78 88 80 / 30 30 60 50
MIAMI 85 77 87 78 / 30 30 70 40
NAPLES 87 75 84 76 / 60 20 70 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
134 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
.AVIATION...
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR HEATING TO OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN AREAS EARLIER THAN THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THEREFORE...THE VCTS WILL BE REMOVE FOR
THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AND REPLACE WITH VCSH FOR REST OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS A KPBI TAF SITE
WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AND COULD AFFECT THE KPBI TAF SITE. THEREFORE...VCTS WILL CONTINUE
FOR KPBI TAF SITE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH VCTS FOR
KAPF TAF SITE.
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AT ALL OF THE TAF STIES THIS AFTERNOON
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...EXCEPT KAPF TAF SITE WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSER
TO SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TRIES TO
DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND SLOWLY.
THE WINDS WILL THEN BE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS AT ALL
OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE STILL SOME SHOWERS AROUND TONIGHT
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SO WILL CONTINUE THE VCSH FOR ALL OF THE TAF
SITES FOR TONIGHT.
THE CEILING AND VIS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES.
&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014/
UPDATE...FALL ARRIVED 2 DAYS AGO AND IS BEING FELT ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA BUT NOT SO FAST HERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA. A SURFACE FRONT
BISECTS THE STATE WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 59F AT
TALLAHASSEE TO 75F AT MIAMI. THE 12Z MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWS A
CONTINUED MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE WITH PW AT 2.06 INCHES.
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING WAS
AIDED BY A MID LEVEL VORT AND THIS FEATURE IS NOW EVEN SHOWING UP
IN KAMX REFLECTIVITY DATA WITH A SPIN SEEN OFF THE UPPER KEYS.
THIS WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD BUT THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDINESS HAS SO
FAR LIMITED CONVECTION OVER LAND. THE CLOUDS ARE THINNING AND AS
THE VORT LIFTS NORTH, SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR ASSOCIATED WITH
SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE. EVEN DESPITE SOME
SUBSIDENCE...GIVEN A MOIST AND TYPICALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE,
AM STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AS SUCH, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING, EXCEPT TO ADJUST THE NEAR TERM
WITH CURRENT AND FORECAST TRENDS. THE PRIMARY POTENTIAL IMPACT
TODAY WILL BE ISOLATED STREET FLOODING DUE TO POTENTIAL LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. /GREGORIA
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014/
AVIATION...
THE ATMOSPHERE IS UNSTABLE TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES. SO
WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING BEFORE GOING TO
VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITE. AT THIS
TIME...THE TEMPO GROUP WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE TAF SITES DUE TO THE
UNKNOWN TIMING OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ONCE THE
ACTIVITY GETS GOING...THEN WILL ADD THE TEMPO GROUP TO THE TAF
SITES.
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE EASTERLY DIRECTION AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES ALONG WITH THE CEILING AND VIS IN
THE VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...ONCE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GET GOING LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE VIS AND
CEILING WILL FALL INTO THE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY PASSAGE OF THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM.
&&
AVIATION...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
ALONG WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS WILL CONTINUE A DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF
TROPICAL AIR ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE AND AT ANYTIME. THE HRRR WHICH TYPICALLY IS A
RELIABLE HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODEL HAS BEEN STRUGGLING THE
PAST TWO DAYS IN RAINFALL PATTERN SOLUTIONS. TONIGHT IS NO
EXCEPTION WHERE IT LACKS THE RECOGNITION OF ACTIVITY OVER THE
SURROUNDING WATERS. SO ONE CANNOT PLACE MUCH FAITH IN ITS
DEPICTION OF VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 12
TO 15 HOURS. IN SAYING THAT, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
CONTINUE IN THE 2+ INCH RANGE AND ALONG WITH INTERACTING
BOUNDARIES AND THE LARGE SYNOPTIC FEATURES LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT. THE LOW WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH ROTATES SOUTH
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE LOCATED
OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN WEST. AS THIS OCCURS, A RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WILL BUILD WEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SOME MID
LEVEL WARMING OCCURRING BUT COUNTERACTING THIS WILL BE A LARGE
PLUME OF MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ACROSS FLORIDA WITH PWAT VALUES REMAINING AT
2 INCHES OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. AS THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST, THE STEERING
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST-NORTHWEST SO THE HIGHEST POPS
COULD SHIFT TO THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BUT
WITH SUCH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT CONTINUING IT APPEARS THAT AT
LEAST HIGH END CHANCE OR EVEN LIKELY POPS WILL STILL BE IN ORDER
ALONG THE EAST COAST.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD, BUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WHICH WILL PLACE SOUTH FLORIDA
BACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINING
IN PLACE SO HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST.
MARINE...
A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO RATHER BENIGN SEAS WITH 2-3 FEET OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND 2 FEET OR LESS IN THE GULF.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 77 88 77 89 / 30 70 50 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 88 80 88 / 30 60 50 40
MIAMI 77 87 78 88 / 30 70 40 60
NAPLES 75 84 76 87 / 20 70 40 80
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...54/BNB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
323 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR TROF FM
SCENTRAL CANADA THRU THE PLAINS IN BTWN A RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND
ANOTHER CENTERED OVER THE ERN GREAT LKS. THERE ARE SEVERAL SHRTWVS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPR TROF. ONE OF THESE IS MOVING NEWD THRU MN
AND IS CAUSING SCT SHOWERS IN WRN WI WHERE SOME DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC IN THE DPVA IS INTERACTING WITH SOME DEEP MSTR SHOWN ON THE
12Z MPX RAOB...WHERE THE PWAT WAS ABOUT 1.15 INCH OR 160 PCT OF
NORMAL. BUT THE RAOBS SHOW MUCH DRIER AIR IS PRESENT JUST TO THE E
OF THIS MOIST AIRMASS...WITH 12Z PWATS AS LO AS 0.46 INCH AT QUAD
CITIES IOWA /55 PCT OF NORMAL/ AND 0.62 INCH AT GRB /85 PCT OF
NORMAL/. THE 12Z H85 AND H7 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS AT THOSE 2 SITES WERE
20-30C. BECAUSE OF THE PRESENCE OF THIS DRY AIR...ONLY MID/HI CLDS
SO FAR HAVE INVADED UPR MI AHEAD OF THE UPR TROF. SOME OF THE
SHOWERS IN NW WI ARE APRCHG IRONWOOD.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE ARND CLDS/POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH TROF TO THE W AND THE CLDS IMPACT ON TEMPS.
AS A DEEP UPR TROF OFF THE W COAST PRESSES TO THE E...THE TROF OVER
CENTRAL NAMERICA IS FCST TO WEEKEN STEADILY THRU THU UNDER THE
LARGER SCALE HGT RISES TO THE E OF THE TROF...INCLUDING IN THE GREAT
LKS. THE RESULT WL BE DIMINISHING DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC...WITH DEEP
LYR QVECTOR DVGC DOMINATING THE ENTIRE CWA ON THU. SINCE THE LLVL
FLOW IS FCST TO VEER ONLY SLOWLY FM THE S TO THE SW...THE ADVECTION
OF THE VERY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE QUAD CITIES/GRB RAOBS WL
AFFECT THE E HALF OF THE CWA THRU THU. SO IN THIS AREA...EXPECT ONLY
SOME MID/HI CLDS INTO THU. OVER THE W HALF...THE SLOWLY WEAKENING
DYNAMIC FORCING THRU THE NGT WL INTERACT WITH MOISTER AIR SHOWN ON
THE MPX RAOB AND FCST PWAT UP TO 160-170 PCT OF NORMAL TO GENERATE
SOME SCT LGT SHOWERS BEGINNING THIS AFTN. BUT THESE WL BEGIN TO FADE
ON THU IN THE FACE OF THE INCRSG DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC. AS FOR
TEMPS...THE GREATER INFLUX OF MSTR AND A STEADY SSW FLOW UNDER
SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT WL GREATLY RESTRICT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP
OVER THE W AND HOLD MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S. WITH DRIER AIR/A BIT
WEAKER H925 FLOW OVER THE E...EXPECT TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...LO ENUF TO ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AS SHOWN
IN CURRENT FCST. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF LINGERING CLD COVER ON THU
ESPECIALLY OVER THE W...OPTED TO LOWER FCST HI TEMPS AT MOST PLACES
THERE INTO THE 60S. THE HIEST TEMPS ON THU INTO THE 70S ARE MOST
LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL AND E AWAY FM THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF LK
MI IN THE LLVL SLY FLOW AND WHERE THERE WL A BIT MORE SUNSHINE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
...WARMER THAN NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND WITH QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTN WILL
BE EXITING EAST OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING. HEIGHT RISES
SHOULD END ANY LGT RAIN SHOWERS EARLIER IN THE DAY...THOUGH A LOWER
MID CLOUD DECK 3-8KFT COULD REMAIN STUCK OVER AT LEAST WESTERN CWA
PER NAM AND GFS BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN
TO FADE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT OR MAYBE AS LATE AS FRIDAY MORNING
WITH SUBSIDENCE INCREASING AND SOME WEAK DRY ADVECTION BELOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WHILE THE WESTERN CWA WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE
CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT...EASTERN CWA SHOULD CLEAR OUT FM MID CLOUDS
EARLY IN THE EVENING...ALLOWING FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING AS
PWATS ARE BLO 50 PCT OF NORMAL. LOWERED MINS INTO THE MID 40S FOR
INTERIOR EAST AND ALSO ADDED FOG. WINDS ABOVE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER
ARE 10-15 KT FM THE SW...SO THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT FOG WOULD TURN
OUT TO BE VERY LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK. BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND
CLEARING OF THE LOW-MID CLOUDS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY SHOULD ALLOW MIXING
TO AT LEAST H875 AND POSSIBLY H85. EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
OVER ALL CWA...EXCEPT NEAR LK MICHIGAN.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL. UPPER RIDGE
SLIDES ACROSS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A REMNANT OF MID TO
UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD INTO THURSDAY MAY TRY TO LIFT BACK TOWARD
AREA ON SATURDAY. MAY SEE REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
LEADING TO FOG OR STRATUS ON FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
INTERIOR CENTRAL AND EAST CWA WITH LIGHTER WINDS CLOSER TO SFC RIDGE
AXIS. ONLY SCT MID CLOUDS WOULD RESULT FM THE MID LEVEL ENERGY WEAK
AS IT IS...AND AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT A BIG IMPACT TO THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. CAVEAT THOUGH IS WE ARE IN THAT TIME OF YEAR
WHERE SUN ANGLE IS LOWER SO IF LOW CLOUDS ARE MORE WIDESPREAD AND
THICKER THAN EXPECTED BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THEY COULD TAKE
A WHILE TO BURN OFF /LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN INSTEAD OF MID
MORNING EARLIER IN THE SUMMER/. OVERALL THOUGH...AT THE LEAST...MOST
AREAS AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN SHOULD SEE A DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AS H85 TEMPS PUSH 12-14C BY AFTN. NORMAL HIGHS FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER ARE LOW TO MID 60S.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS LACKING /H7-H5 RH LESS THAN 50 PCT/ SO
ONLY EXPECT SCATTERED MID CLOUDS. SFC RIDGE STILL CLOSE BY WITH WEST
TO EAST AXIS MAINLY AFFECTING EASTERN CWA. PWATS ON THE INCREASE
WITH THE UPPER LOW REMNANT NEARBY...SO RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL
SEEMS LESS THAN PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS. MINS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY IN THE
50S FOR THE CWA. INTO SUNDAY...DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR WITH
REGARD TO HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LEVEL FLATTENS OUT ALLOWING FOR A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO WORK IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO NORTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHWEST QUEBEC. GEM-NH
AND ECMWF ARE QUICKER BRINGING THIS FRONT THROUGH...FAVORING A FROPA
ON SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...GFS INSISTS ON A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING THROUGH AND MORE OF A SFC TROUGH FORMING...KEEPING SW WINDS
OVER UPR MICHIGAN THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY BEFORE FROPA OCCURS. WPC
AND CONSENSUS BLEND GOES AWAY FM THE GFS AND THIS FORECAST WILL DO
LIKEWISE. RESULT WILL BE MORE MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON SUNDAY...THEN A COOLING TREND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES SEEM SMALL AS STRONGER FORCING STAYS TO NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR
THROUGH MONDAY AND THERE IS MINIMAL THETA-E ADVECTION FOR FRONT TO
WORK WITH AS IT MOVES THROUGH. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THE COOLING TREND
AND PROBABLY DECENT AMOUNT OF LOWER CLOUDS FOR MONDAY.
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVES BY MIDWEEK. MOISTURE ADVECTION BETTER
WITH THIS FRONT AS SOUTH WINDS BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
COUPLE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVES SHOULD LIFT ACROSS AHEAD OF LARGER
SCALE TROUGHING SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. TSRA
CHANCES SMALL AS AXIS OF HIGHER MLCAPES ARE FORECAST TO STAY TO WEST
OF CWA...CLOSER TO FRONT SIDE OF LARGER SCALE TROUGHING ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
ALTHOUGH MID/HI CLDS WL BE THICKENING WITH THE APRCH OF A WEAKENING
UPR DISTURBANCE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES
WITH A PERSISTENT FEED OF LLVL DRIER AIR. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WL BE
AT IWD...WHICH IS CLOSER TO MORE LLVL MSTR IN MN. AS THE WINDS
SLOWLY VEERS TOWARD THE SW...THE ARRIVAL OF THIS HIER MSTR SHOULD
ALLOW A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ON THU MRNG. OTRW...GUSTY S WINDS WL
DIMINISH TOWARD 00Z THIS EVNG WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND COOL LAKE WATERS/HI STABILITY...EXPECT WINDS NO
HIER THAN 20 KTS THRU MON. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MORE HUMID AIR OVER
THE UNUSUALLY COOL LK WATERS...SOME FOG MAY FORM LATE THU NIGHT INTO
FRI AND LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
302 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPR TROF FM
SCENTRAL CANADA THRU THE PLAINS IN BTWN A RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND
ANOTHER CENTERED OVER THE ERN GREAT LKS. THERE ARE SEVERAL SHRTWVS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPR TROF. ONE OF THESE IS MOVING NEWD THRU MN
AND IS CAUSING SCT SHOWERS IN WRN WI WHERE SOME DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC IN THE DPVA IS INTERACTING WITH SOME DEEP MSTR SHOWN ON THE
12Z MPX RAOB...WHERE THE PWAT WAS ABOUT 1.15 INCH OR 160 PCT OF
NORMAL. BUT THE RAOBS SHOW MUCH DRIER AIR IS PRESENT JUST TO THE E
OF THIS MOIST AIRMASS...WITH 12Z PWATS AS LO AS 0.46 INCH AT QUAD
CITIES IOWA /55 PCT OF NORMAL/ AND 0.62 INCH AT GRB /85 PCT OF
NORMAL/. THE 12Z H85 AND H7 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS AT THOSE 2 SITES WERE
20-30C. BECAUSE OF THE PRESENCE OF THIS DRY AIR...ONLY MID/HI CLDS
SO FAR HAVE INVADED UPR MI AHEAD OF THE UPR TROF. SOME OF THE
SHOWERS IN NW WI ARE APRCHG IRONWOOD.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE ARND CLDS/POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH TROF TO THE W AND THE CLDS IMPACT ON TEMPS.
AS A DEEP UPR TROF OFF THE W COAST PRESSES TO THE E...THE TROF OVER
CENTRAL NAMERICA IS FCST TO WEEKEN STEADILY THRU THU UNDER THE
LARGER SCALE HGT RISES TO THE E OF THE TROF...INCLUDING IN THE GREAT
LKS. THE RESULT WL BE DIMINISHING DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC...WITH DEEP
LYR QVECTOR DVGC DOMINATING THE ENTIRE CWA ON THU. SINCE THE LLVL
FLOW IS FCST TO VEER ONLY SLOWLY FM THE S TO THE SW...THE ADVECTION
OF THE VERY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE QUAD CITIES/GRB RAOBS WL
AFFECT THE E HALF OF THE CWA THRU THU. SO IN THIS AREA...EXPECT ONLY
SOME MID/HI CLDS INTO THU. OVER THE W HALF...THE SLOWLY WEAKENING
DYNAMIC FORCING THRU THE NGT WL INTERACT WITH MOISTER AIR SHOWN ON
THE MPX RAOB AND FCST PWAT UP TO 160-170 PCT OF NORMAL TO GENERATE
SOME SCT LGT SHOWERS BEGINNING THIS AFTN. BUT THESE WL BEGIN TO FADE
ON THU IN THE FACE OF THE INCRSG DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC. AS FOR
TEMPS...THE GREATER INFLUX OF MSTR AND A STEADY SSW FLOW UNDER
SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT WL GREATLY RESTRICT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP
OVER THE W AND HOLD MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S. WITH DRIER AIR/A BIT
WEAKER H925 FLOW OVER THE E...EXPECT TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...LO ENUF TO ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AS SHOWN
IN CURRENT FCST. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF LINGERING CLD COVER ON THU
ESPECIALLY OVER THE W...OPTED TO LOWER FCST HI TEMPS AT MOST PLACES
THERE INTO THE 60S. THE HIEST TEMPS ON THU INTO THE 70S ARE MOST
LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL AND E AWAY FM THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF LK
MI IN THE LLVL SLY FLOW AND WHERE THERE WL A BIT MORE SUNSHINE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
NAM SHOWS A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND
ONE OFF THE EAST COAST 12Z THU. THIS TROUGH GETS EMBEDDED IN THE
RIDGE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. CANNOT RULE OUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE WEST FOR THU AS THE UPPER TROUGH IS NEARBY AND THIS WILL ALSO
CAUSE SOME MORE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER THRU THU
NIGHT. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUDS...THIS SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES
DOWN A BIT AND OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST EXCEPT FOR THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST ON THU.
OTHERWISE...QUIET AND DRY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH AND LOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY 12Z SAT. THIS UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF US 12Z SUN WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
BACK INTO THE PLAINS. THIS RIDGE THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES 12Z MON INTO 12Z TUE. THIS FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY DRY AND WARM
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
LOOKS LIKE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT DOES NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST IF AT ALL SUN INTO MON. FRONT
STALLS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON TUE AND WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE WEST IN CASE SOME SHOWERS BREAK OUT. WITH THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
ALTHOUGH MID/HI CLDS WL BE THICKENING WITH THE APRCH OF A WEAKENING
UPR DISTURBANCE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES
WITH A PERSISTENT FEED OF LLVL DRIER AIR. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WL BE
AT IWD...WHICH IS CLOSER TO MORE LLVL MSTR IN MN. AS THE WINDS
SLOWLY VEERS TOWARD THE SW...THE ARRIVAL OF THIS HIER MSTR SHOULD
ALLOW A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ON THU MRNG. OTRW...GUSTY S WINDS WL
DIMINISH TOWARD 00Z THIS EVNG WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND COOL LAKE WATERS/HI STABILITY...EXPECT WINDS NO
HIER THAN 20 KTS THRU MON. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MORE HUMID AIR OVER
THE UNUSUALLY COOL LK WATERS...SOME FOG MAY FORM LATE THU NIGHT INTO
FRI AND LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1253 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 454 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
NEDOR CAMS IN THE VALLEY AND SATELLITE CONFIRM DENSE FOG IS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING. THE NAM AND HRRR MODELS INDICATE THE FOG WOULD
LIFT BY 15Z THIS MORNING SO A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN PLACE
UNTIL 14Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE SFC TROF ACROSS NCNTL NEB MOVES EAST ONLY
SLIGHTLY TODAY SETTING UP LIGHT NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE WEST AND
CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS IN THE EAST. THIS TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO ERN NEB TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
FCST AREA.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY FOLLOW THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 50S. SFC OBS INDICATE NO SIGN OF FOG AS
ADVERTISED BY THE NAM AND HRRR VISIBILITY PRODUCTS...CONDITIONS WILL
BE MONITORED AS TEMP DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE 0-2 DEGREES AT 08Z.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS COME MAINLY AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD AS A QUIET
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS QUITE
SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS STARTING MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK SO CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST LOWERS
INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS USED
FOR THE FORECAST.
THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE
EVOLUTION OF THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE STRENGTH OF
THIS TROUGH WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY THE RIDGE TO THE EAST WHICH WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY THING SLIGHTLY COMPLICATING
THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY IS WHAT INFLUENCE THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HAVE AS IT GETS
STUCK UNDER THE LONGWAVE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY AND RETROGRADES. FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
THIS TROUGH WILL BE PLACED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. AT THIS POINT...MODELS CONTINUE
TO KEEP SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AT THE SURFACE WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S ARE
EXPECTED/ SO EVEN WITH SOME ENHANCED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY. THE MAIN
INFLUENCE WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES. THE TROUGHS PLACEMENT WILL PUSH
THE WARMER AIR UNDER THE THERMAL RIDGE NORTH...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE WARMEST AIR LOOKING TO GO FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH HEDGES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. AREAS OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL SEE TEMPERATURE POTENTIALS BEING MUCH COOLER
CUE TO THE COOLER AIR ALOFT. FORECAST CHANGES WERE MINIMAL FROM
THE PREVIOUS OUTPUT...KEEPING THE MID RANGE FORECAST DRY AND WARM.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 80S AND LOW 90S FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH UPPER 70S TO MID 80S FOR SATURDAY. WITH THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED...WILL
NEED TO PAY ATTENTION FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...DEWPOINTS STAY HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM DROPPING TO CRITICAL LEVELS BUT SHOULD KEEP
AN EYE ON THEM DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AT THIS POINT...FUELS ARE
NOT CURED WHICH SHOULD HELP MANY AREAS FROM REACHING CRITICAL OR
EVEN NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS.
NOW ONTO THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW AND
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND AND TRANSITION EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT THE CLOSED LOW
WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST...HOWEVER THE
TIMING OF THIS EVOLUTION IS DIFFERENT AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/GEM WITH
THE ECMWF BEING QUICKEST AND THE GEM SLOWEST WITH THIS
PROGRESSION. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL BRING ABOUT DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO NEBRASKA. AT THIS
TIME...THE GFS BRINGS AN INITIAL WAVE OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS LAG AND DON`T PRODUCE
ANY PRECIPITATION LOCALLY UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS EVEN HAS
SLOWED FROM PRIOR MODEL RUNS WHICH AT ONE POINT HAD SUGGESTED RAIN
BEGINNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY SO EXPECTING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK. COVERAGE MAY NOT BE HIGH
IN ALL PERIODS...BUT CHANCES ARE RAIN WILL BE OBSERVED IN SOME
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA MOST DAYS. THE NEXT CONCERN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST...BUT
UNTIL THE TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
STAY NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...LOWS IN THE 40S/50S.
GOING LATER IN THE WEEK...BEYOND THIS FORECAST IT IS LOOKING
LIKELY FOR TEMPERATURES TO DIP DOWN BELOW NORMAL AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES BY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW...HOWEVER EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...INCLUDING KLBF TERMINAL. PERSISTENCE AND MODELS SUGGEST
THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP CAUSING AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS TO EXIST
AFTER 10Z UNTIL 15Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...GOMEZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
329 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING WARMTH ON THURSDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.
STRATUS HAS CLEARED ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WHICH
IS EXPECTED BY 21-22 UTC. THE 15 UTC SREF CEILING PROBABILITIES
AND 19 UTC RAP LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS SUGGEST THE STRATUS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS EAST TONIGHT. DID ADD A
PATCHY FOG MENTION TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WHERE
RESIDUAL MID 50S DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN.
FOR THURSDAY...ANOMALOUS 850 MB TEMPERATURES 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ARE FORECAST UNDER THE BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. THIS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURES IN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
LOCATION.........FORECAST HIGH........RECORD
BISMARCK.............90...............92 IN 1902
MINOT................89...............93 IN 1938
WILLISTON............93...............89 IN 2011
DICKINSON............91...............89 IN 1990
JAMESTOWN............85...............95 IN 1938
FOLLOWED THE WARMER EDGE OF THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE WHICH HAS
VERIFIED BEST THIS MONTH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
THE TREND CONTINUES...WARM AND DRY THROUGH LATE WEEKEND.
THE RIDGE...CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN MONTANA...WILL NOSE INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TOMORROW AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER...POTENTIALLY
RECORD BREAKING...TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OUT WEST. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ISN`T PROGGED TO SWING
THROUGH UNTIL SOMETIME TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST
TO SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE
MAIN WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE WAVERED BACK AND FORTH
OVER THE PREVIOUS RUNS. THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE LOW TRACK...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE AT
LEAST MOST OF THE AREA HAS A GOOD CHANCE AT SEEING SOME RAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
IFR STRATUS HAS FINALLY CLEARED KJMS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT
KJMS LATE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WITH NO HAZARDS
EXPECTED.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
102 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
CLEARING AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CHALLENGE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING ENTERING MW FA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST. BASED ON TRENDS DID LOWER MINIMUMS
MAINLY FROM THE VALLEY WEST. ALSO CONTINUED TO TRIM POPS ACROSS
THE FAR EAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY TRIMMED POPS
ACROSS THE EAST AS MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY
MAXIMA OVER S MN SHIFTS EAST. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS POINT WITH
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES FROM BAUDETTE TO FERGUS FALLS....VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS. MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLEARING TREND. SLOWED
DOWN CLEARING THRU 18Z-22Z....LATEST HRRR DOES STILL BRING
CLEARING INTO THE RRV IN THE 22Z PERIOD. THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD AND PRECIP TRENDS. AS EXPECTED UPPER LOW
IS VERY NEAR FARGO. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THIS WAVE IS FROM
FOSSTON TO WAHPETON TO SISSETON MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEAST. LOW
CLOUDS COVER A LARGE PART OF THE AREA AS MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
FLOW AT 850-925 MB IS OVER THE AREA. LAST AREA TO SEE CLOUDS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE FAR NRN RRV. QUESTION OF THE DAY IS HOW WILL
CLOUDS BEHAVE. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST BUT DO EXPECT
LINGERING ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTN OVER PARTS OF
NW/WCNTRL MN. LOW CLOUDS EXTEND WEST OF MINOT-BISMARCK. NAM/GFS
SHOW SLOW CLEARING OF THE DEEPER 850-925 MB MOISTURE FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY...REACHING THE RED RIVER VALLEY MID AFTN BUT NOT THE
FAR EAST TIL AFTER 00Z. WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND TODAY THIS MAY
BE TOO FAST EVEN...BUT ON THE OTHER HAND WILL HAVE NO HIGH CLOUDS
ABOVE THE STRATOCU DECK ON THE WEST SIDE OF IT SO CHANCES FOR THE
SUN TO WORK ITS MAGIC AND OPEN UP SOME CLEARING MAY TAKE PLACE.
FOR NOW KEPT IDEA VIA MODEL SUPERBLEND AND NEIGHBORS IN BRINGING
CLEARING TO GFK-FAR 21Z-22Z PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT
ON TEMPS KEEPING THEM IN THE 60S IN MINNESOTA BUT WITH ENOUGH SUN
WESTERN FCST AREA TO RISE INTO THE MID OR UPPER 70S. RED RIVER
VALLEY KEPT LOW 70S BUT THIS HINGES ON CLOUDS.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN FCST AREA MAY BEEN
CLOUDS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME CLEARING. OTHERWISE IDEA IS FOR A
GENERALLY CLEAR SKY RRV AND WEST. THURSDAY WILL SEE 500 MB HEIGHTS
RISING AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EXPECTING SUNSHINE AND WARM WEATHER
WITH A LOT OF LOW-MID 80S RRV AND WEST WITH 70S EAST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY AND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
OR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATE A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
CROSSING THE REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST OF THE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE NRN PART OF THE AREA...AND DRAG A COLD FRONT JUST OVER THE
CANADIAN BORDER...WITH CHANCES FOR -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS THE NORTH.
BEHIND THE WAVE...THE UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPS
AND LOW POP CHANCES THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS. IFR/MVFR CLOUD DECK HAS
PERSISTED THIS MORNING. EXPECT GRADUAL EROSION FROM THE WEST WITH
CONTINUED DRYING ALOFT BEHIND DEPARTING UPPER LOW. CLEARING IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE VALLEY BY LATE TODAY. HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE IN
CLEARING AT KTVF AND KBJI...WHERE LOWER CIGS MAY BE SLOWER TO ERODE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY UNDER 10-15 KTS. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
FOG TOMORROW MORNING AT THIS POINT...BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
MONITOR.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
140 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY UP THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND INTO
THE DELMARVA THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 104 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
APPEARS MAIN STRATIFORM RAIN IS SITUATED EAST OF A LYH-BUY
LINE...WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF RAIN/SPRINKLES WEST TO THE
FOOTHILLS. LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO BE HANDLING IT FAIRLY WELL AND
TRENDS SHOW MAIN BATCH OF RAIN WILL SKIRT OUR ERN CWA WITH UP TO A
QUARTER INCH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THREAT
TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND NONE WEST OF NRV AND SHENANDOAH VLY. AT THIS
TIME...MODELS POINT TOWARD A DEFORMATION ZONE BAND SETTING UP THIS
EVENING FROM THE NRN CWA INTO NRN VA...WITH LESS THREAT IN THE
SOUTH...SO WILL BE TRENDING DRIER IN THE SOUTHERN CWA AFTER DARK.
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE AFTERNOON UPDATE EXCEPT THE SKY COVER
INCREASING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE LIFTING
SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO TONIGHT.
SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE DELMARVA BY THURSDAY WITH UPPER
SYSTEM MOVING OUT LEAVING BEHIND WEAK UPPER TROUGH LINGERING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE ADJMAV WITH
READINGS FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE WEST TO THE MID 50S IN THE
EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
COMPLICATED SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVING OR CONTINUING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS SEVERAL WEAK CLOSED HIGHS AND LOWS MEANDER ABOUT THE
CONUS. THE UPPER FLOW IS VERY CHAOTIC TO SAY THE LEAST. FOR OUR
REGION THE PRINCIPAL WEATHER PLAYERS WILL BE A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COASTAL/INVERTED
TROUGH...AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE WEDGE OVER THE REGION WILL
PERSIST THU...THANKS TO THE LARGE HIGH OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
WITH TIME...THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN...BUT A NEW HIGH IS PROGGED TO
BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES AS HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE AND THE
CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. MID-RANGE MODELS
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE WEDGE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE GRADUALLY
BEING SHOVED TO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA FRI-SAT AS DRIER AIR
SPREADS SOUTHWEST FROM NEW ENGLAND. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF -RA
THU...TAPERING OFF FROM NE-SW DURING THE DAY. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED -
DZ AS THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING TRENDS TOWARD NIL IS NIL AND
THE MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER
LONGER AND ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. PATTERN
APPEARS SOMEWHAT ANALOGOUS TO WEEKEND BEFORE LAST...WHICH WILL LEAVES
CLOUDS AND -DZ LINGERING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHILE CLOUDS
ATTEMPT TO DECREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH TIME.
USED A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...BUT DID
UNDERCUT MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES FOR THU AND TO SOME EXTENT FRI
WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION. A WARMING TREND
WILL ENSUE SAT AS CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO DECREASE AND 850MB TEMPS
RISE TOWARD +14C...YET OFFSET BY COOLER NE SFC FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE CHAOTIC SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED. WEAK
CUTOFF LOWS ARE EVIDENT IN THE MIDWEST AND TEXAS...WITH A STRONGER
UPPER LOW MIGRATING ONTO THE WEST COAST. UNDERLYING THE ENTIRE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE EAST REMAINS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE...WITH
NEAR 590DM CENTERS OVER SOUTH FL AND THE NORTHEAST. WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVER THE REGION...LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS HOVER
IN THE +12 TO +14 RANGE YIELDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SFC TEMPS.
AS WE MOVE INTO SUN AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...ATTENTION BEGINS TO FOCUS
ON A DISTURBANCE...POTENTIALLY WEAK TROPICAL...ALONG THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST. THIS IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
CAROLINAS AND VA BY LATE MON. THE ECMWF PAINTS A RATHER DIRE PICTURE
OF A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH ROTATING OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WITH DEEP MOISTURE...WHILE THE CANADIAN AND GFS
TEND TO BE MUCH WEAKER WITH THE PARENT UPPER LOW AND ALSO FOCUS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM GA THROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. HAVE NOT MADE
ANY CHANGES TO THE POPS IN THESE LATER PERIODS AS EXISTING POPS WELL
ADVERTISED THE INCREASE IN POPS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS 850MB
TEMPS REMAIN IN THE +12 TO +14C RANGE WITH NO INTRUSIONS OF COOL AIR
EVIDENT AT ALL THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
CIGS ARE GOING TO LOWER TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE PIEDMONT IF
NOT ALREADY THERE. WESTERLY SHIFT IN THE LOWER CIGS WILL MAKE IT
TO ROA/BCB AROUND DUSK OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...THEN TO BLF/LWB BY
MIDNIGHT. BEST RAIN THREAT WILL STAY EAST OF BCB/ROA THOUGH THESE
AREAS COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS EVENING. LYH/DAN
COULD SEE POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE MAIN
AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN SHIFTS NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR
CIGS/VSBYS TO STAY IN SUB VFR LEVELS AND DROP INTO IFR OR LOWER
ALL LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT. NE WIND FLOW IN THE 5 TO 15 KNOT RANGE
WILL KEEP THE CLOUD SOCKED INTO THE REGION THROUGH THU
MORNING...THOUGH CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO LOW END MVFR AFTER
14-15Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK. BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DRIFTS TOWARD THE SW PART OF
THE CWA WITH TIME AS THE WEDGE BOUNDARY PERSISTS ALLOWING SOME DRY
AIR TO FILTER INTO NE SECTIONS BY FRI. EXPECT CONTINUED MOSTLY
MVFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS EARLY THU IN -DZ...BECOMING VFR VSBYS BY
LATE MORNING THU. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO FRI MORNING
BEFORE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS RETURN LATER FRI AND CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT INCLEMENT WEATHER SYSTEM DOES NOT IMPACT THE
REGION UNTIL LATE MON.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PC/RAB
AVIATION...KK/RAB/WP