Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 09/23/14

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS RENO NV

934 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATE THE FORECAST FOR TODAY TO MATCH UP WITH THE LATEST TRENDS.
BAND OF RAIN REMAINS NORTH OF RENO-TRUCKEE THIS MORNING. GOOD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE OCCURRING THERE, BUT THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL LIKELY KEEP THE RAIN BAND NORTH OF THE RENO-TAHOE AREA
THIS MORNING.

WE STILL EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE RENO-
TAHOE AREA AS COLD AIR ALOFT KEEPS THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE. CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, SO KEPT IN A MENTION
OF SLIGHT CHANCE. BUT, THE MAIN MODE OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
TODAY IS RAIN SHOWERS.

AS FOR AIR QUALITY, DENSE SMOKE SETTLED INTO THE TRUCKEE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH VERY POOR AIR QUALITY THIS MORNING. AIR QUALITY MAY
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MIXED, BUT WEST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL ONLY BRING IN ADDITIONAL SMOKE TO THE TAHOE
BASIN. SMOKE CONDITIONS WILL ONLY DETERIORATE FOR TAHOE AND
WESTERN NEVADA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS,
BRINGING SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE. HOON

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

UPDATE...
WITH THE MAIN PRECIP BAND BREAKING UP OVER LASSEN/WASHOE/PERSHING
COUNTIES, HAVE REDUCED THE POPS FOR THIS MORNING. WITH THE CORE OF
THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN NEVADA NOW, SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN. THE INSTABILITY IS NOT GREAT OUTSIDE OF THE CORE OF
THE LOW SO ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM HERE ON OUT SEEM
APPROPRIATE. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY BEFORE 18Z AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY. LEFT TEMPS ALONE DESPITE THE WARM START AS CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO BE ABUNDANT AND LIMIT HEATING. WALLMANN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NEVADA WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THEN
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE BRINGS INCREASING WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH POSSIBLE RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

SHORT TERM...

SO FAR THE ONLY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED IN EASTERN
CHURCHILL COUNTY WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVED UP TO 0.50 INCH,
AND FAR SOUTHERN MONO COUNTY REPORTING AROUND 0.25 INCH. OTHERWISE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPARSE WITH RAIN BANDS UNABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER
EXCEPT IN WEST CENTRAL NV.

THE KEY OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WRAPPING INTO THE RENO AND TAHOE
VICINITY WILL BE DURING THE MID AND MORNING HOURS BETWEEN 6 AND 11
AM. THIS TIME PERIOD HAD OFTEN BEEN TARGETED FOR THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATE A
NARROWER AND WEAKER RAIN BAND COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THE
TRADE-OFF OF LESS RAIN AND CLOUD COVERAGE IN THE MORNING COULD BE
INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT THAT WOULD MAKE RAINFALL MORE HIT OR MISS OVER THE
REGION.

THE PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO
THE NORTHEAST AND EXITS NORTHEAST NV. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A RETURN
TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AS RIDGE AXIS
MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE RETURNED TO TRUCKEE AND PARTS OF THE
TAHOE BASIN AFTER 3 PM YESTERDAY, WITH SOME SMOKE PERSISTING EARLY
THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE NORTH SHORE OF TAHOE TO
INTERSTATE 80. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL SMOKE IS UNLIKELY TO SPREAD
EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY, IT MAY BE
DIFFICULT TO FULLY SCOUR OUT THE EXISTING SMOKE ESPECIALLY IF
STEADY RAIN MISSES THESE AREAS. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST
AGAIN MONDAY WITH WEAK ZEPHYR BREEZE RETURNING BY LATE AFTERNOON,
AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS TUESDAY. THIS COULD BRING MORE
SMOKE EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST AND INTO WESTERN NV IF THE KING
FIRE IS STILL BURNING ACTIVELY THROUGH HEAVY TIMBER. MJD

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE EAST PACIFIC TROUGH AND ITS MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FOCUS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH THE MODELS A BIT SLOWER
THIS MORNING. THE EC CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE
PROGRESSION BY 24-36 HOURS THIS MORNING. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A
BLEND, BUT I AM STARTING TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE EC. THEIR ENSEMBLES
SUPPORT THEIR RESPECTIVE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS, BUT PREFER THE EC
ENSEMBLE IDEAS DUE TO THE GREATER NUMBER OF MEMBERS. IT ALSO SHOWS
THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS MORE WITH THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND
NOT AS MUCH ON SPEED THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK A BIT BREEZY BUT NOT AS MUCH SO WITH THE
SLOWER TIMING. IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE
GFS/EC ARE ONLY ABOUT 12 HOURS DIFFERENT WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH AND CONTINUED THE CHANCE POPS IN THE SIERRA NORTH OF TAHOE
INTO NORTHERN WASHOE THU/THU NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER EAST.
BEHIND THE FRONT, IT LOOKS MUCH COOLER AND SHOWERY FRIDAY ON BOTH
MODELS WITH THE SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND PER THE EC. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 9000 FEET OR SO BEHIND THE FRONT SO SOME
PEAKS MAY SEE A LIGHT CAPPING OF WHITE BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, KEPT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EC AND ITS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH 70 IN WRN NV AND AROUND 60 IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS. WALLMANN

AVIATION...

SOME SMOKE/HAZE WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING NEAR THE SIERRA CREST
AROUND TAHOE THEN CLEAR SOME AROUND NOON ONLY TO RETURN AROUND 00Z
WITH A LIGHT WEST WIND COMING OVER THE CREST AT THAT TIME. SFC VIS
COULD REDUCE TO NEAR 2 SM THROUGH 06Z FOR KTRK/KTVL AND ISSUES
WITH SLANTWISE VIS ARE ALSO PROBABLE. SMOKE ISSUES ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY ASSUMING THE KING
FIRE REMAINS ACTIVE.

OTHERWISE, A BAND OF RAIN OVER PERSHING COUNTY WITH POCKETS OF MVFR
VIS WILL PERSIST INTO 18Z. THE BAND LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF KRNO
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH ISOLD MVFR CIGS/VIS IN SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. SLOW CLEARING
THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDS OUTSIDE OF SMOKE MONDAY. WALLMANN

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SACRAMENTO CA

855 AM PDT Sun Sep 21 2014

.Synopsis...
Lingering Sierra showers/t-storms are possible through this
evening. Otherwise, dry and warmer temperatures into early next
week. Cooler and possibly wetter weather for the middle to end of
next week.

.Update Discussion...
Upper low centered over central California a little slower to
exit than some model runs suggested, and continues to bring wrap around
moisture from the east into the forecast area. This system will
move into Nevada later today, but showers and thunderstorms will
continue to be a possibility into this evening. Current radar
shows some showers extending into Shasta, eastern Tehama, western
Plumas, Butte, and Sierra. This will continue and spread a little
farther westward, with a better chance of thunderstorms by early
afternoon. Have updated forecast to extend area of convection
farther west, into the east side of the northern and central
Sacramento Valley for today and as far west as the foothills this
evening. Have also increased cloud cover and lowered temperatures
a little for today. EK

.Previous Discussion...Upper level closed low center now appears from
satellite imagery to be somewhere over the northern San Joaquin
valley. IR image shows abundant cloudiness in the deformation zone
in the northeast section of the low. A short wave trough rotating
out of this zone and westward across north central California
brought light showers and isolated thunderstorms over the northern
Sierra and westward into the southern Sacramento valley overnight.
This disturbance has moved westward and weakened and the showers
have ended most areas. The upper low is forecast to move rapidly
to the northeast today with the center moving into Nevada by 18z
today. Instability progs show some minor instability still over
the eastern portion of northern California today near the back
side of the low so left a slight threat of showers and
thunderstorms over the east side mountains through this evening.
The remainder of the forecast area should see clearing skies as
the low continues eastward. Slightly cooler airmass today should
bring slightly cooler daytime high temperatures. Upper level high
pressure ridge sliding over the north state will bring fair skies
and warmer temperatures on Monday. The high will shift quickly
eastward on Tuesday as a low pressure system in the Pacific moves
towards the coast. Daytime temperatures Tuesday will be similar to
Monday before a bigger cooling trend expected to begin Wednesday.
Mid range models in fair agreement in bringing a Pacific frontal
system onto the north coast sometime early Wednesday. If current
models hold...parts of the CWA will be seeing light precipitation
as early as mid day Wednesday.

.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Extended models in fairly good agreement in moving a Pacific
Frontal system across the Pacific Northwest and NORCAL Thursday.
Nearly all of the CWA will see at least a chance of precipitation.
With cloud cover and cooler airmass...daytime highs will drop to
well below normal. Extended models begin to diverge a bit by next
Friday. GFS model progresses the upper trough axis east of the
forecast area by 00z Friday while the ECMWF lingers it offshore. GEM
model takes a middle of the road approach to the other two.
Regardless of the solution...next Friday looks to be a mainly
cloudy day with at least a threat of precipitation most areas.
Significance of model variance grows by next Saturday as GFS
would bring clearing and warming under a ridge pattern while a
less progressive ECMWF would keep showers in the region. Have kept
with the more middle of the road GEM and kept precip threat mainly
over the eastern portions of the CWA. RAP around moisture could
still be an issue for the Sierra next Sunday if ECMWF solution is
correct. GFS and GEM models show drying under a ridge of high
pressure.

.Aviation...

VFR conditions next 24 hrs except locally with SHRA/TSRA over Sierra and
northern/central Sacramento Valley this afternoon. Isolated TSRA
may linger through 06z for the foothills/Sierra. Lcl MVFR vsbys
vcnty King Fire from smoke near KPVF. EK

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS RENO NV

609 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
WITH THE MAIN PRECIP BAND BREAKING UP OVER LASSEN/WASHOE/PERSHING
COUNTIES, HAVE REDUCED THE POPS FOR THIS MORNING. WITH THE CORE OF
THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN NEVADA NOW, SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN. THE INSTABILITY IS NOT GREAT OUTSIDE OF THE CORE OF
THE LOW SO ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM HERE ON OUT SEEM
APPROPRIATE. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY BEFORE 18Z AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY. LEFT TEMPS ALONE DESPITE THE WARM START AS CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO BE ABUNDANT AND LIMIT HEATING. WALLMANN

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

SHORT TERM...

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

AVIATION...

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SACRAMENTO CA

427 AM PDT Sun Sep 21 2014

.Discussion...
Upper level closed low center now appears from satellite imagery
to be somewhere over the northern San Joaquin valley. IR image
shows abundant cloudiness in the deformation zone in the northeast
section of the low. A short wave trough rotating out of this zone
and westward across north central California brought light showers
and isolated thunderstorms over the northern Sierra and westward
into the southern Sacramento valley overnight. This disturbance
has moved westward and weakened and the showers have ended most
areas. The upper low is forecast to move rapidly to the northeast
today with the center moving into Nevada by 18z today. Instability
progs show some minor instability still over the eastern portion
of northern California today near the back side of the low so left
a slight threat of showers and thunderstorms over the east side
mountains through this evening. The remainder of the forecast area
should see clearing skies as the low continues eastward. Slightly
cooler airmass today should bring slightly cooler daytime high
temperatures. Upper level high pressure ridge sliding over the
north state will bring fair skies and warmer temperatures on
Monday. The high will shift quickly eastward on Tuesday as a low
pressure system in the Pacific moves towards the coast. Daytime
temperatures Tuesday will be similar to Monday before a bigger
cooling trend expected to begin Wednesday. Mid range models in
fair agreement in bringing a Pacific frontal system onto the north
coast sometime early Wednesday. If current models hold...parts of
the CWA will be seeing light precipitation as early as mid day
Wednesday.

.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

.Aviation...

VFR conds nxt 24 hrs. Lcl MVFR vsbys vcnty King Fire near KPVF.
Isold -shra mainly ovr nrn Siernev with sct TSRA psb hyr elevs
nrn Siernev aft 21Z til abt 02Z Mon.

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RENO NV

303 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

.SHORT TERM...

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.AVIATION...

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SACRAMENTO CA

951 PM PDT Sat Sep 20 2014

.Synopsis...
Lingering Sierra showers/t-storms are possible through the
weekend, otherwise, dry & warmer temperatures into early next
week. Cooler and wetter weather arrives middle of next week into
next weekend.

.Discussion...
Instability advected into the srn sac/san joaquin valley earlier
this evening. This touched off isolated showers and thunderstorms
over the area. Activity has diminished over the past few hours
with a few isolated showers over the valley although a new batch
of convection is developing over the southeastern Sierra. Have
increased overnight pops over the southern portion of the area...as
HRRR maintains showers and isolated thunderstorms through sunrise.

.Previous Discussion...
Satellite imagery shows a cut off 578dm closed low centered
directly over Oxnard as of 230pm this afternoon. This closed
circulation center is positioned directly below the apex of a
ridge extending across much of the western US. Short term
convective guidance has varied, with the NAM12 over analyzing
convection, the WRF keeping the convection along the higher
terrain of the Sierra, and the HRRR spilling convection into the
valley from the south and east. The most plausible scenario is a
blend between the WRF and HRRR solutions with most of the
convective activity occurring along the crest, with a low to
moderate probability of spill over into the foothills and valley.
The best chance for spillover into the valley is between 9pm and
3am tonight. The best chance for rainfall is late today and
overnight when a moist PW plume interacts with the enhanced
northeastern sector of the upper low and orographics of the
Sierra. A third of an inch of rain is possible above 4000 feet
south of Lake Tahoe should nature play out as modeled. KDAX radar
indicates the first cell has developed south of SR108 in Tuolumne
county over the last 10 minutes. Elsewhere, mid to high clouds
have been streaming in around the upper low and have helped to
moderate temperatures slightly.

The upper low is forecast to shift inland and slowly reintegrate
with the mean westerly flow over the next few days. Temperatures
will remain near normal through the short-term with upper 80s to
low 90s in the valley. A gradual cooling and drying trend is
expected into early next week.

Smoke from the King Fire will continue to impact the Sierra and
foothills into the adjacent Southern Sacramento valley. Hazy
conditions surrounding the smoky area will extend into the Central
Sacramento valley into the Northern San Joaquin valley. On Sunday,
the general wind pattern transitions to a weak onshore flow which
should push smoky/hazy conditions eastward. DRP

.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Upper level trough along the west coast on Wednesday and moves
onshore later in the week bringing cooler temperatures and a
chance of precipitation. The models vary with the timing of the trough and
track of the low so confidence is low in the timing and coverage
of precipitation. The GFS moves the system through Thursday into
early Saturday and the ECMWF is slower and forms a low over the
Pacific Northwest on the weekend. Showers may start as early as
Wednesday over the coastal range and spread over the area on
Thursday...mainly north of Interstate 80. Showers may continue on
Friday and Saturday...especially over the mountains. Temperatures will be
in the 80s in the valley and 60s and 70s in the mountains on
Wednesday and drop down to the mid 70s to low 80s in the Valley
and 50s and 60s in the mountains on Thursday and Friday. These
temperatures are near to around 5 to 12 degrees below normal for
this time of year on Thursday and Friday.

.Aviation...

VFR conditions the next 24 hours all TAF sites. MVFR/IFR
visibilities east of SAC into the foothills and mountains due to smoke
from the King Fire. Isolated Thunderstorms possible along the
Sierra.

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

322 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...MARGINAL
SEVERE POSSIBLE ON PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...

CURRENTLY...

DRIER AIR NOTED OVER PLAINS AS DWPTS OVER FAR EC COLO IN THE
30S...WITH U40S/50S ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. MTNS MAINLY IN THE
40S...WITH MUCH RICHER MOISTURE SW OF THE FCST AREA. AREA OF RAIN
OVER THE CONTDVD EARLIER HAS DISSIPATED...ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF THE HIGHER TRRN. A FEW ISOLD
POPS WERE NOTED OVER FAR N EL PASO COUNTY. A FEW CG FLASHES WERE
NOTED WITH THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION...BUT THE BRUNT OF THE INTENSE
LTG ACTIVITY WAS STILL ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH BACK INTO E UTAH.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE
CONTDVD...ESPECIALLY THE SAN JUANS. ALL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING BEST
CHANCE OF HEAVY PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE SW FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN
JUANS. MOST OF THE PRGD HEAVY PRECIP WILL BE IN NWS GJT AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY...BUT SOME OF THIS PRECIP WILL LIKELY MAKE IT OVER
THE DIVIDE. WILL WAIT TIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO DECIDE IF A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS NEEDED. PROS FOR A WATCH IS MODEL FCST...BUT WE (NWS
PUB) REALLY HAVE NOT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVER THIS REGION SO SOILS
ARE NOT ALL THAT SATURATED.

18Z NAM HAS BEEN SHOWING LOTS OF PRECIP OVER THE GREATER PIKES PEAK
REGION BUT I AM DISCOUNTING THIS DUE TO ITS POOR PERFORMANCE THE
LAST SEVERAL RUNS. RAP GUIDANCE IS QUITE A BIT DRIER. GFS ALSO ALOT
DRIER PIKES PEAK REGION.

OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...I DONT THINK THE PLAINS WILL SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF PRECIP THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE...AND ACROSS
N EL PASO COUNTY...BUT THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY TONIGHT
GIVEN THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW.

TOMORROW....

TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. IT APPEARS NOW THAT THE
SFC TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN COLORADO DURING PRIME HEATING AND WE WILL
LIKELY HAVE A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. SHEAR LOOKS GOOD BUT CAPE LOOKS
MARGINAL SO SVR THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL. QUITE A FEW CLOUDS MAY BE
OVER THE AREA TOMORROW AND THAT COULD LIMIT HEATING.

MOUNTAINS SHOULD GRADUALLY DRY OUT TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK E ACROSS WY AND INTO THE
DAKOTAS MON EVE...GRADUALLY BRINGING AN END TO PCPN FROM WEST TO
EAST. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO BECOME ISOLATED BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE FAR E PLAINS...THEN COME TO AN END EARLY TUE MORN ALONG THE
CO/KS BORDER.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND MAX TEMPS IN
THE 80S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE FAR SE CORNER AS WELL AS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS...INCLUDING THE S SANGRES.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE TO THE
EAST...AS AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL START TO DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE UP
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO...WHICH IN TURN INCREASES
POPS FOR THE MTS AND WESTERN AREAS FROM THU AFTN ONWARD. A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM THU THROUGH FRI...THOUGH TEMPS WILL
STILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON MOVING THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE PAC NW AND GREAT BASIN ON SAT...THROUGH THE
EC IS JUST A BIT SLOWER. THE TROUGH DEEPENS WITH A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING BY SUN...WHICH THEN SLOWLY MOVES EAST TOWARD COLORADO.
THE EC HAS THIS LOW OVER NV...WHILE THE GFS HAS THIS LOW EDGING
INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF COLORADO...SO STILL SOME ROOM FOR
NEGOTIATION THERE. END RESULT IS THAT A COOLER PERIOD WITH INCREASED
CLOUDS AND PCPN COVERAGE IS FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...AND THE FINER
POINTS AND TIMING WILL HAVE TO BE REVISITED THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK. MOORE

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

KCOS...MAIN CONCERN IS MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME LOW CIGS INTO THE TAF SITE. FOR TOMORROW...A LINE
OF BKN CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITE EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING SKIES THEREAFTER.

KPUB...MAINLY VFR NEXT 24H. COULD SEE SOME LOW CIGS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS.

KALS...COULD SEE SCTD SHOWERS WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW...OTHERWISE VFR.

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

1151 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIAL
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND HIGH-RES MODEL TRENDS. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER HUERFANO AND SOUTHERN PUEBLO
COUNTIES WHERE THE 00Z NSSL WRF AND HRRR RUNS ARE INDICATING IT
WILL BLOSSOM OVERNIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART HAVE KEPT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR. HAVE LIMITED AREAS OF THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS WHICH CONTINUE TO COME IN DRIER WITH EACH HIGH RES MODEL
RUN. MOZLEY

UPDATE ISSUED AT 852 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

UPDATED TO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CURRENT RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...NORTHEAST ACROSS TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES. THESE
STORMS HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW MOVING...AND THE STRONGER CELLS ARE
PUTTING DOWN BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE INCH OF RAINFALL. IF
STRONGER CELLS MOVE OVER BURN SCARS...THEY COULD PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. AS FAR AS THE
PLAINS...THE HIGH RES MODELS STILL DEVELOPING AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND MIDNIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
SPREADING EAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MOZLEY

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED ACROSS THE
REGION...WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CA
COAST. THIS PATTERN WAS DRAWING MOISTURE UP INTO THE DESERT
SW...WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CONVECTION FIRING OVER NV AND SOUTHERN UT
AS OF 3 PM. ACROSS THE CWA...SFC OBS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HAVE
SHOWN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE PLAINS PRODUCING GUSTY
NE-SE WINDS AT TIMES...BUT WITH LITTLE OTHER EFFECT. TEMPS THIS AFTN
HAVE BEEN ABOUT THE SAME AS HAVE BEEN RECORDED THE PAST TWO DAYS.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE RIDGE PRESENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL START TO WEAKEN...WHILE THE
UPPER LOW OVER CA MOVES INLAND AND TRACKS TO THE NE INTO CENTRAL NV.
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO WESTERN CO IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS THE
LOW APPROACHES...BUT THE REAL STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE
CONTINUED PERSISTENT EASTERLY SFC FLOW THAT IS FORECAST FOR THE E
PLAINS AND MTS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A
VERY SLOW START TO ANY SORT OF PCPN OVER THE MTS...ALL THE MODELS
ARE STILL HANGING ONTO THE PROMISE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
OVER THE MTS MOVING OFF ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY BY 02Z...THEN ACROSS
PUEBLO COUNTY AND AREAS EAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. THIS LLVL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE...SO KEPT ISOLATED POPS ALL AREAS EAST WHILE THE MTS
AND WESTERN AREAS GET INCREASED POPS TO REFLECT THE INCREASING
INCOMING MOISTURE. MODELS DO INDICATE THAT TOMORROW WILL BE THE
FIRST BREAK IN THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...AS READINGS ARE FORECAST TO
WARM INTO THE 70S IN THE AFTN. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE BEGINNING OF
THIS PERIOD...MONDAY...AS A TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
COMBINES WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR. AT THIS TIME
THE MOST FAVORABLE PARAMETERS APPEAR TO FAVORING THE GREATER I-25
CORRIDOR REGION. SPC HAS AREA MENTIONED FOR ENHANCED CONVECTION
FOR THIS DAY.

TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR ALOFT INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME
RESIDUAL LVL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AROUND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
FAR E PLAINS.

WEDNESDAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY IS FCST TO MOVE DOWN THE PLAINS THIS
DAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL DOWN ALONG THE RATON MESA...AND THIS
AREA...ALONG WITH THE S MTNS...IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
WILL BE ON THIS DAY. PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE LOW END SCTD AT
BEST...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE S SANGRES.

THURSDAY...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON THIS DAY. GFS DROPS A
CUTOFF 500 MB LOW ACROSS C NEBRASKA WHILE EC HAS WEAK SW FLOW OVER
THE REGION. OBVIOUSLY...IF THE GFS IS CORRECT IT WILL BE COOLER
OVER THE REGION THEN THE EC. FOR NOW LEANED HEAVILY TOWARDS THE EC
GUIDANCE...KEEPING TEMPS UP INTO THE 70S AND 80S ACROSS THE
REGION.

FRIDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED....A DEEP TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE ACROSS CALIF WILL BE GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...TROUGH IS STILL FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST...AND MID LVL
FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAKLY FROM THE SW. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD
WITH ONLY ISOLD POPS AT BEST.

OVERALL...TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE L/M80S ACROSS THE PLAINS. THESE TEMPS ARE ABOUT 4
TO 7F ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. EXCEPT FOR
TUESDAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LOW. WE ARE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR PRECIP OVER THE REGION FOR THE MONTH OF
SEPTEMBER....AND HAVE BEEN THIS WAY SINCE ABOUT MID AUGUST ACROSS
THE REGION (SEE TEMP/PRECIP MONTHLY CLIMO CHARTS ON THE BOTTOM OF
NWS PUEBLO WEBPAGE FOR SPECIFIC NUMBERS). /HODANISH

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

KALS...SHOWERS ARE PASSING ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND WILL DO
SO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWERED CIGS TO AROUND 1000 FEET.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT WITH CIGS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

KCOS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING AROUND THE EL PASO
COUNTY AREA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE LATEST
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS
PUEBLO COUNTY. SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD HELP PRODUCE LOW CIGS AND
POSSIBLY FOG THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRATUS DECKS AROUND 2-5 KFT.

KPUB...MODELS INDICATING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY
07Z WITH LOWERED CIGS AND VIS DUE TO STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE IMPROVEMENTS MID SUNDAY
MORNING WITH STRATUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON RUNNING AROUND 3-6 KFT.
MOZLEY

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOZLEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

406 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS TO THE
REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND. WE
COULD APPROACH RECORD WARMTH ON SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

***A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST***

MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. WE SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST AND PASSING NEAR THE
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GET. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RHODE ISLAND FOR AT LEAST A TIME. IN
FACT...LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MA COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. NOT SURE IF
IT WILL GET THAT FAR NORTHWEST...BUT ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS NANTUCKET...
WHERE BETWEEN 0.50 TO PERHAPS UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
THE RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD WIND DOWN NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ONCE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINLY BE DRY TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MIDNIGHT. WHILE SHEAR IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT. SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES...THEY WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. LOW
TEMPS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOWER 60S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

MONDAY...

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY...MAY SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-
CUMULUS CLOUDS WORK INTO AT LEAST THE INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT STILL WILL
REACH BETWEEN 70 AND 75 ALONG HE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY GOOD
MIXING.

HIGH SURF...GIVEN LARGE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH COAST ON MONDAY. WE ISSUE HIGH SURF PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF SEPTEMBER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DIMINISHING WINDS AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. LOOKS LIKE
A PRETTY GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN MOST LOCALES. THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND OF BOSTON WILL BE THE MILD SPOT WITH THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 50.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE NEXT SATURDAY

OVERVIEW...
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY. THEN...MUCH ADO ABOUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS VERY STRONG AS IT IS PARKED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS... TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT ONLY
PARTLY SUNNY NW MA AND SW NH CLOSER TO SOME HIGHER 925 MB
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS THROUGH THU DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED ALONG WITH VERY DRY DEWPOINTS. AS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH APPROACHES...AM EXPECTING A DRAMATIC WARMUP FRI
AND ESPECIALLY SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN IS EVEN WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM +12C TUE...TO
+17C FRI... TO +19C OR +20C ON SAT... WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HAVE GONE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUMS FOR NEXT SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS SOARING TO 80 TO 85 ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RECORDS FOR THAT DAY INCLUDE 85 AT WORCESTER AND 86 AT BOTH BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS A HINT OF A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT/TROUGH
OVER NORTHEAST MA ON SAT BUT THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO DETRACT FROM
THE VERY WARM FORECAST...AS YET.

AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA AND AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO BE CAUSING PRECIPITATION IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD.
THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA ONLY GETS AS
FAR NORTHWARD AS OFF THE NJ COAST BY FRI...BEFORE RETREATING
SOUTHWARD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY MVFR
CIGS WERE DOMINATING AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT SOME IFR CONDITIONS WERE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. MAY SEE CONDITIONS LOWER
TO IFR IN SOME LOCALES NEAR THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. REST OF THE REGION SHOULD MAINLY BE MVFR.

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT TOO
PESSIMISTIC ON CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GIVEN WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE
OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION LATER THIS EVENING...ALBEIT LIGHT. PATCHES
OF IFR CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY THOUGH...ESPECIALLY IF ANY PATCHY
FOG CAN DEVELOP. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT AT LEAST THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY REACH INTO RHODE ISLAND/INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MA FOR A SHORT TIME AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO NORTHEAST MA.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
JUST A LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY
AS A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR.
WED...VFR
THU...VFR.
FRI...VFR.

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FOR
SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SCA SEAS
ON THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND OUTER-WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA FOR A TIME
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO SOME OF THE NEARSHORE SOUNDS AND
WATERS. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THIS RIGHT NOW...
SO WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

TUE AND WED...SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY LINGER AT TIMES TUE AND WED OVER
THE WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A NORTHEAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 20 KT.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/FIELD
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...FIELD
AVIATION...FRANK/FIELD
MARINE...FRANK/FIELD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

645 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THIS LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF
SUMMER. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION TODAY. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOST OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NYC/LI REGION HAS
REMAINED JUST EAST OF NW CT. WE HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED POPS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...STRATUS DECK WAS SLOWLY
EXPANDING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND INTO THE DACKS. SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE TUG
HILL AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

AS OF 330 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING DEPICTS A COUPLE OF
NOTABLE WAVES THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR REGION TODAY. THE
FIRST WAVE WAS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THE SECOND WAVE AS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE LAST WAVE WAS FURTHER UPSTREAM APPROACHING LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS IS AN EXTENSION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HIRESWRF REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY IMPACT LOCATIONS
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT AND SOUTHERN BERKS/ THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST. HERE
MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR AS WE
WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...THE COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT SLOW INTENSIFICATION. FURTHERMORE...UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL-EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COASTAL WAVE TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TIME FOR OUR REGION TO FULLY FEEL THIS WARM SECTOR
WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL
INTO THE MID TEENS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...SURFACE DEWPOINTS TOO WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 60F OR GREATER FOR THE REGION. AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE. PER COORDINATION FROM SPC...THE ENTIRE REGION IS
NOW WITHIN A "SEE TEXT" WITH 5% PROBABILITIES. 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALONG WITH THE HRRR AND LOCAL HIRESWRF SHOW A SCT-BKN
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPES CLIMB INTO THE MID 100S J/KG
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS CLIMBING TOWARD 50KTS. SO A LOW CAPE AND
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE
ALLOWED FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE VALLEY TAF SITES...AND IFR CIGS AT
KPSF. THE STRATUS HAD GENERALLY REMAINED SOUTH/EAST OF KALB/KGFL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT IT HAS STARTED TO CREEP NORTH AND WEST OVER
THE PAST HOUR OR SO...ALLOWING FOR MVFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO THESE
SITES AS WELL. THE PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES EARLIER DID ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP AT KGFL...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THIS HAS
BROKEN UP THANKS TO A LIGHT BREEZE AND APPROACHING LOW STRATUS. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT THE STRATUS TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND FURTHER NORTH/WEST
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WE WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST
MID MORNING.

BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...THE LOW STRATUS SHOULD START TO
ERODE AND CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK TO VFR AS DAYTIME MIXING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR SOME CLEARING. WHILE CLEARING WILL
TAKE PLACE FIRST FOR THE VALLEY TERMINALS...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AROUND
NOON FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AT KPSF.

THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR KGFL...AND A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER
CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN
SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING
THE TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME MIST MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP AT
KGFL/KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

644 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE
ALLOWED FOR MVFR CIGS AT KPOU...AND IFR CIGS AT KPSF. THE STRATUS
HAS GENERALLY REMAINED SOUTH OF KALB/KGFL...KEEPING THE LOW CIGS
AWAY FROM THOSE SITES AND ALLOWED FLYING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR AT
KALB. HOWEVER...THE CLEARING SKIES ALLOWED FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG
TO DEVELOP AT KGFL. WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE STRATUS TO EXPAND FURTHER
NORTH/WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WE WILL ALLOW A TEMPO FOR
MVFR CIGS AT KALB...AND IFR CIGS AT KPOU AS WELL...IN CASE THIS
OCCURS.

BY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...RADIATIONAL FOG SHOULD LIFT AT
KGFL...ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL RETURN TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR
CONDITIONS THERE AS WELL. BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...THE
LOW STRATUS SHOULD START TO ERODE AND CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK
TO VFR AS DAYTIME MIXING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR SOME
CLEARING. WHILE CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE FIRST FOR THE VALLEY
TERMINALS...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AROUND NOON FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN AT KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

619 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOST OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NYC/LI REGION HAS
REMAINED JUST EAST OF NW CT. WE HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED POPS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...STRATUS DECK WAS SLOWLY
EXPANDING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND INTO THE DACKS. SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE TUG
HILL AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF
SITES...AND MVFR AT THE HIGHER TERRAIN TERMINAL OF KPSF. WITH A
PERSISTENTLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO MVFR FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPS AND MOVES UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR NYC/LONG ISLAND...MAY SCRAPE NEAR
KPSF/KPOU OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN
THE TAFS WITH A VCSH. ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED
OUT...WILL NOT INCLUDE IFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS/UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST CIGS WILL ONLY
LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS.

CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK TO VFR BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY AS DAYTIME MIXING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR
SOME CLEARING. HOWEVER...THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE
IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR KGFL...AND
A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR
WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY
TERMINALS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING THE TERRAIN MAY
ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR SUN NIGHT. SOME MIST MAY
DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT...ESP AT KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS
WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY
IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

301 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING DEPICTS A COUPLE OF
NOTABLE WAVES THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR REGION TODAY. THE
FIRST WAVE WAS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THE SECOND WAVE AS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE LAST WAVE WAS FURTHER UPSTREAM APPROACHING LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS IS AN EXTENSION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HIRESWRF REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY IMPACT LOCATIONS
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT AND SOUTHERN BERKS/ THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST. HERE
MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR AS WE
WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

225 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE EXPECTED
INTO SUN MORNING...WITH MOST AREAS DRY AND RATHER MILD BY SUN
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS START OFF COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MODERATE TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

230 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM LONG ISLAND
NORTHWARD ACROSS CT/WESTERN- CENTRAL MA FROM MID ATLC TROUGH.
PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THIS NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH
THIS UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF THE CAROLINA AND MID ATLC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD BETWEEN WESTERN ATLC SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES.
SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES OFF THE MID
ATLC ALONG WITH SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE MID 70S! 00Z OBSERVED UPPER
AIR SOUNDING FROM OKX ON LONG ISLAND INDICATES COLUMN IS FAIRLY
MOIST BELOW 700 MB.

THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DESPITE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WEAK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT AS
CONVECTION FIRES EAST OF NJ. THUS WEAK FORCING BUT COUPLED WITH
INSTABILITY ALOFT AND PWATS CLIMBING TO +1 STD ABOVE CLIMO MAY
YIELD SOME TROPICAL DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT ACROSS CT AND INTO WEST-
CENTRAL MA AFTER 06Z. AFTER 12Z SHOWERS MAY MOVE EASTWARD INTO RI
AND EASTERN MA. 12Z ECMWF AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP13
APPEAR TO BE SIMULATING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL THRU 01Z.
THEREFORE WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY AND ALSO MATCHES UP WELL WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

RAP13 HAS STORM TOTAL QPF UP TO 0.60 INCHES BY 18Z ACROSS CT AND
WEST-CENTRAL MA. OBVIOUSLY LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE TROPICAL CONNECTION AND WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT
MAY YIELD EMBEDDED TSTMS. EARLIER DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

A SHORTWAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE A 30 TO 40 KNOT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...TRANSPORTING DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BURST OF
INSTABILITY AND A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING FROM.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z. WEST TO EAST. TIMING LOOKS TO BE AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 6Z AND 15Z.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL...BUT THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH
ELEVATED CAPE FOR A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXTREMELY LOW SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH 0
TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS/0 TO 1 KM HELICITY AROUND
100...AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE....CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM NEAR THE SOUTH COAST SUNDAY MORNING.
AGAIN THOUGH...THAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY BUT
SOMETHING WILL NEED TO WATCH.

THE STEADY AND HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GIVEN LIMITED
BAROCLINICITY/FRONTOGENESIS. HOWEVER...IT STILL MAY SCRAPE THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR A TIME WHERE PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES
SO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

IN A NUTSHELL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A SOAKING
RAIN BY ANY MEANS...BUT A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST IF THE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
CAN MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE...MOST OF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRY WITH JUST A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND THE
REGION...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WHERE
SHOWERS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER.

LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALLOWING WINDS TO DECOUPLE. LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S AND IT WILL FEEL A BIT
HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S!

LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. A LOT OF
MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ALONG THE FRONT. THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW SP.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.OT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
THE INTERIOR LATE SUN AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
DRY IN A GIVEN LOCATION. LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

*LOW CHANCE SHOWERS MON. THEN DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK
*COOL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK...MODERATING BY WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.
THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TROUGH DRAPED OVER
THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AS TIME GOES ON AND THE UPPER LEVEL MOVES NORTH INTO
CANADA. GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE ENSEMBLE NAO AND AO TELECONNECTION
FORECASTS TO STAY IN THE POSITIVE PHASES. THE PNA LOOKS TO START
POSITIVE AND GO NEUTRAL AS TIME GOES ON...BUT THEN MODELS DIVERGE IN
THEIR OUTPUTS AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALLOWS FOR SOME SPREAD.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...THE MORNING BEGINS WITH A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT IS
FIGHTING WITH SOME DRY MIDLEVELS ALLOWING SOME OF THE PRECIP TO DRY
UP. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG MIXING OCCURS UP
TO AROUND 850 MB WHERE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS EXIST SO GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. 850 MB TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE
AROUND 10C SO MID TO UPPER 70S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE.
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS WON/T GET THAT HIGH AS THE FRONT CROSS THROUGH
TOO EARLY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG 1035 MB
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES INTO THE REGION WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT. DRY
WEATHER WILL ALSO PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THINK THE
ECMWF MAY HAVE IT TOO FAR NORTH WHILE THE 6Z GFS HAS IT FURTHER
SOUTH. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS JET WILL GIVE US WHEN CIRRUS
CLOUDS MOVE NORTH FROM MOISTURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST US. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE UPPER JET UP NORTH SO BETTER
CHANCE FOR COOLING TEMPS AT NIGHT ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT
DRY SPELL WE/VE BEEN HAVING. IN PERIODS OF ONSHORE WINDS...FOG COULD
OCCUR.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

230 AM UPDATE...

THRU 12Z...

MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS CT AND WESTERN-
CENTRAL MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. ELSEWHERE VFR BUT EVENTUALLY
LOWERING TO MVFR AS SHOWERS SHIFT TOWARD RI AND EASTERN MA TOWARD
12Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

AFTER 12Z...MAINLY MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVY RAIN. LOW PROB OF IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MAY CLIP NANTUCKET AND CAPE COD. SHOWERS BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF AND MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER 18Z. VERY LOW RISK OF AN
ISOLATED TSTM ALONG SOUTH COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE..HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS EARLY.
CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN-
CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.
VFR THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR ANY SHOWERS ON MONDAY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE MVFR COULD BE NEEDED. WINDS AROUND 10KTS
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 OR 25KTS IN PLACES. THESE
WINDS DIE OFF ON TUESDAY AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT 5
FOOT SEAS COULD DEVELOP FOR A TIME ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS...BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP WAVES JUST BELOW FOR NOW. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL AND PERHAPS THE NEED FOR A SHORT
FUSED SCA ADVISORY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...SWELL FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCA SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. SINCE ITS MAINLY 3RD PERIOD...WILL DEFER THE ISSUANCE
OF HEADLINES TO THE NEXT SHIFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT THE WATERS THIS MORNING. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

SEAS FROM 5 TO 8FT ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS...AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD FOR THE SWELLS.

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/99
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...NOCERA/99
MARINE...FRANK/99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

122 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL HELP WARM TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY... BRINGING SOME
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MOST
OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE
WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...STRATUS DECK WAS EXPANDING ONCE AGAIN UNDER A
SHALLOW INVERSION AROUND H925. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD AN EXCELLENT
HANDLE TO THE SKY COVERAGE AND ONLY MADE SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AN EXPANDING AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NYC/LI REGION AND APPROACHING NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THAT DISTURBANCE AND A POCKET OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH
AS THE HRRR AND LOCAL HI RES WRF AND EVEN 12KM NAM STILL
INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OR
TWO OF THUNDER.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED DUE TO
THE PERSISTENT GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE
MILD AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE 50S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS/DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO ATLANTIC
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THAT REGION IN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST DUE TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SHOWERS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
DURING THIS PERIOD...LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST
FOR ABOUT THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...AROUND 50
PERCENT POPS OVER THE CENTRAL THIRD...THEN ONLY 25 TO 35 PERCENT
POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD.

POPS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT 15 TO 40
PERCENT POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES THROUGH. MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE
HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS FORECAST TO BE DRY MONDAY AFTN...WITH A 20 TO
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

AS ANOTHER SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE IN MONDAY
NIGHT...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR.

A VERY MILD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 80S. STILL MILD SUNDAY NIGHT BECAUSE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATE AND TEMPS DO NOT HAVE A CHANCE TO DROP THAT MUCH...LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S AND A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER AS A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS ACROSS THE
REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
EXITING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH AN EXPANSIVE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. OTHER THAN SOME
EARLY MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY THE REST OF THE
DAY LOOKS TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING ACROSS
THE REGION.

THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A SEVERAL-DAY STRETCH OF GORGEOUS MILD WEATHER
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S
TO THE LOW 50S.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO
REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

THE SHOWER POTENTIAL INCREASES ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS OVER 25 MPH.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A
TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH
ACROSS ADIRONDACKS

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

106 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AS ANOTHER SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE IN MONDAY
NIGHT...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER AS A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS ACROSS THE
REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S
TO THE LOW 50S.

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT
AS A LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK DEVELOPS DUE TO MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
REGIME. CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR THEN EVENTUALLY IFR BEFORE
DAYBREAK. A DISTURBANCE GRAZING AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY
OVERNIGHT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
TO THE KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE VCSH TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS OUR REGION WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. CIGS
EXPECTED TO RISE BACK TO MVFR THEN EVENTUALLY VFR RANGE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS SUNDAY
EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KT...BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO
REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

THE SHOWER POTENTIAL INCREASES ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS OVER 25 MPH.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

925 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHRAS/TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING...MAINLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST...AND WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN REFLECTS THIS TREND
AND GENERALLY INDICATES THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY AROUND THE EAST
COAST TERMINALS. AS A RESULT...VCTS WILL BE INCLUDED FOR THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH NEAR CALM WINDS.
ON TUESDAY...THE WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTING TO THE SSE. 85/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 832 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014/

UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND INTERIOR
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TO
THE WEST OF NAPLES. SO BUMPED UP POPS FOR THIS EVENING. THE 850MB
FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...AND THE COASTAL
CONVERGENCE AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS AND MOVING INTO THE
COASTAL AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014/

MARINE...

WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL OR NORTHERN
FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK, AND SURFACE HIGH STRENGTHENING ALONG THE
ENTIRE EASTERN SEABOARD, EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEEPEN AND BECOME
STRONGER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS MAY LEAD TO 20
KT WINDS FOR A TIME THROUGH THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC ZONES TOMORROW
NIGHT INTO PART OF WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME EVEN AT NIGHT. AN UPPER
HIGH MOVING INTO FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND MAY ALLOW THE WINDS TO
SUBSIDE WITH LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS. EXPECT WAVES OF 2-4 FT
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC WATERS, CLOSER TO 4 FEET AS THE WINDS BECOME
STRONGER TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WITH WIND SPEEDS 15-20 KTS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MULTIPLE MID LEVEL SHRTWVS, WILL CONTINUE RIDING NORTHEAST, JUST
SOUTH OF A DWINDLING BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS CLOSEST TO THE TRACK OF THESE
DISTURBANCES/INSTABILITY/THETA E GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MUCH DRIER
AIR ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA, AND THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SEA BREEZE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND THE MORE NUMEROUS
STORMS INLAND, HOWEVER CONVERGENCE WILL STILL EXIST CLOSE ENOUGH
TO THE COAST WITH SSW WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE, SUCH THAT
SHOWERS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CAN`T
RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM INLAND AND ALSO NAPLES AREA, ALREADY HAD
A STORM PRODUCING 50KTS FROM PBI TDWR IN EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL
PALM BEACH EARLIER TODAY.

AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
AND NEW ENGLAND, EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME DEEPER AND STRONGER
THROUGH THE WEEK, BEGINNING TOMORROW. HOWEVER, THE STEERING FLOW
ALOFT WILL STILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SSW STILL TUESDAY, SO
STORMS MAY MOVE AND EVOLVE IN A SIMILAR FASHION, PERHAPS A LITTLE
CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN TODAY. ALSO WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW
TONIGHT AND THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS, THERE WILL BE MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS AROUND DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THAN
USUAL ALONG THE EAST COAST. IN CONCLUSION, THE WET PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINING THROUGH NORTH OR
CENTRAL FLORIDA, AND ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ARRIVES IN
THE MID LEVELS LATE WEEK, MODEL PWATS ARE STILL CLOSE TO OR ABOVE
2 INCHES. EASTERLY WINDS WILL ONLY BECOME DEEPER AND STRONGER AS
AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO
THURSDAY. EVENTUALLY THE SUBSIDENCE WITH THUS UPPER HIGH MAY
FINALLY DELIVER A RESPITE TO THIS WET PATTERN THIS WEEKEND.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 151 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014/

AVIATION...

SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MAINLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SOUTH FLORIDA
PENINSULA. ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KAPF ASSIGNED VCTS AT 18Z. FOR
TERMINAL KAPF...THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MAY NOT MATERIALIZE AS
CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE WESTERN PENINSULA AND GULF WATERS AND VCSH
ASSIGNED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 86 76 86 / 50 70 60 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 86 78 86 / 40 60 40 50
MIAMI 77 86 77 86 / 40 60 40 50
NAPLES 75 87 74 86 / 50 60 40 60

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...60/BD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

343 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES MOVED BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS HAS LIMITED DEVELOPMENT
THERE. IN ADDITION...WITH THE LOW LEVEL DRYING...DEW POINTS FELL
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. FURTHER NORTHER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LAKE REGION SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY AND MOVING TOWARDS THE PALM BEACH METRO AREA. A WEAK
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS ALSO DEVELOPED...AND THIS MAY ENHANCE
ACTIVITY FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS MAINLY FROM BROWARD COUNTY
NORTHWARD INTO THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE MIDNIGHT ALONG THE EAST
COAST...WITH MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIG DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AND THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DEEP MOISTURE. HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS COULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION...WITH EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING TO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY.
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN...AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TAP THIS DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...AND A WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. COASTAL
CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS IN THE LATE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN SPREAD TO THE GULF COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN TO A MORE GULF
BREEZE ORIENTED SETUP WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND GULF COASTAL AREAS. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF THEN
AGREE WITH SLIDING THIS RIDGE FURTHER WEST AND OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE BULK OF 24 HR TAF PERIOD...THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN REMAINS
CONSISTENT AND CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED SHRAS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING AND TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL INCLUDE VCTS EXTENDING NORTH
FROM FLL AND VCSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS OPF/TMB/MIA DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE MID/UPPER CLOUD COVERAGE THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING HOURS TODAY OVER THESE
SOUTHERN SITES. 85/

.MARINE...
AN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL THEN SET UP AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT 3 FEET OR LESS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 73 89 75 85 / 30 60 50 70
FORT LAUDERDALE 74 88 77 86 / 30 60 50 70
MIAMI 74 89 77 86 / 20 50 50 70
NAPLES 74 86 75 87 / 20 50 30 70

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...85/AG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

341 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY
MELBOURNE TO TAMPA AREA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND FADE INTO
TONIGHT. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
ORLANDO AREA THROUGH LATE AFT INTO THIS EVENING. INTERESTING TO
NOTE THAT THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE I-4 CORRIDOR WITH SEA
BREEZE COLLISIONS LATE IN THE AFT/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER WITH
MODELS SHOWING A PRETTY DEEP LAYER OF DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
OVER THIS REGION EXPECTING ANY SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN
ISOLATED. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH PAST MIDNIGHT WITH CLOUD
COVER DECREASING. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG REDEVELOP OVER A FEW AREAS
LATE TONIGHT DUE TO LINGERING INFLUENCE OF WEAKENING FRONT AND
LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

MON...INCREASING 850-700MB SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN BAND OF
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO TOMORROW. THIS
COMBINED WITH SOME SUPPORT FOR LIFT ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PUSH EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION
INTO THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF
THIS ACTIVITY THAT INTERACTS WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE LATER
IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

TUE...AXIS OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE PERSISTING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH AROUND 60/70 PERCENT. HIGHS
EXPECTED IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WED-SAT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY CLEARS CENTRAL FLORIDA BUT
THE MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND KEEPING RAIN CHANCES HIGH..60
POP...FOR ANOTHER DAY BEFORE DROPPING DOWN TO AND IS REPLACED BY
RIDGING ALOFT MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED
STATES. RAIN CHANCES DROP TO 50 PERCENT THU THEN 30 TO 50 PERCENT
THU THROUGH SAT AS EASTERLY PULLS ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA. DEEPENING EASTERLY FLOW USUALLY HAS THE RAIN AND STORMS
START EARLY AT THE COAST THEN QUICKLY PUSH INLAND EARLY AFTERNOON
AND LEAVE THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AT THE COAST AND LOW 90S INLAND. HIGHS MID AND UPPER 80S.

.AVIATION...BEST POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPING SHRAS/TSRAS PRODUCING
TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS THROUGH LATE AFT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF KMCO.
HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL STILL EXIST TOWARD THE
I-4 CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS.
RAIN CHANCES END BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN MAY SEE PATCHY FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS A FEW AREAS TOWARD 10-12Z MONDAY. DEEPER
MOISTURE LIFTING BACK NORTH OVER THE AREA TOMORROW WILL LEAD TO
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHRAS/TSRAS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE
WATERS TONIGHT WITHS SWELLS CONTINUING SEAS UP TO 4 FEET OFFSHORE.

MON-THU...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) LIGHT WINDS ON MONDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE ATLC TWD CENTRAL FLORIDA.
WINDS BECOME ONSHORE/EASTERLY TUE AND REMAIN ONSHORE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUILDS ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE THAN 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 71 87 73 86 / 10 40 20 60
MCO 72 89 72 87 / 20 60 30 70
MLB 73 86 76 85 / 20 60 30 70
VRB 71 88 75 85 / 20 60 40 70
LEE 72 89 72 88 / 10 50 20 60
SFB 72 89 73 88 / 20 50 30 60
ORL 72 89 73 88 / 20 60 30 60
FPR 71 88 76 85 / 20 60 30 70

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC/MARINE/AVIATION...WEITLICH
IMPACT WX/RADAR....PENDERGRAST

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

142 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION...
ALTHOGUH VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE BULK OF 24 HR TAF PERIOD...THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN REMAINS
CONSISTENT AND CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED SHRAS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING AND TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL INCLUDE VCTS EXTENDING NORTH
FROM FLL AND VCSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS OPF/TMB/MIA DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE MID/UPPER CLOUD COVERAGE THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING HOURS TODAY OVER THESE
SOUTHERN SITES. 85/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

AVIATION...
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SOLUTION INDICATES MAINLY SCATTERED LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...MAINLY FOCUSING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE PENINSULA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND MAY TURN ONSHORE AS A
RESULT OF THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. OUTSIDE OF THIS POTENTIAL
ACTIVITY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS HAS SHOWN A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS THAT HAS PUSHED TO THE
NORTH AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. REMNANT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
AND WEAKEN FURTHER. OTHERWISE...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS ARE PUSHING TO THE NORTHEAST AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH DEEP/MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TODAY AS
OCCURRED YESTERDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE ASSOCIATED REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN DRAPED
ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH A DEEP
MOISTURE AXIS OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD COVER SHOULD AGAIN
KEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO A MINIMUM.

SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN IN A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT THROUGH
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE DEPICTING AN H5 SHORTWAVE SURGING
TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND BECOMING CUTOFF FROM
THE MEAN FLOW. AS IT DOES...THIS WILL KEEP DEEP MOISTURE PUMPING
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS
WILL KEEP AN ONGOING WET PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WITH LIKELY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW A MORE EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN TO
RETURN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN TO A
MORE GULF BREEZE ORIENTED SETUP WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND GULF COASTAL AREAS. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
THEN AGREE WITH SLIDING THIS RIDGE FURTHER WEST AND OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

AVIATION...
LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO
SLIGHTLY REDUCE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT BY ONLY A SMALL MARGIN. SO, HAVE CARRIED A PROB30
GROUP FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE,
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION BEING
IFR UNDER ANY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. A MORE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL THEN SET
UP AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT 3 FEET OR LESS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 75 86 76 85 / 20 60 30 70
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 87 79 86 / 20 60 40 70
MIAMI 77 87 78 86 / 20 60 30 70
NAPLES 76 86 75 86 / 20 60 30 70

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...13/SI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

1019 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION...
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SOLUTION INDICATES MAINLY SCATTERED LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...MAINLY FOCUSING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE PENINSULA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND MAY TURN ONSHORE AS A
RESULT OF THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. OUTSIDE OF THIS POTENTIAL
ACTIVITY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 87 75 86 76 / 50 20 60 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 78 87 79 / 50 20 60 40
MIAMI 88 77 87 78 / 50 20 60 30
NAPLES 86 76 86 75 / 50 20 60 30

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...13/SI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

325 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...SURFACE LOW PRES CENTERED OFFSHORE THE NC COAST WITH A
WEAK (TD/THETA) FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW TO AROUND THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION. MULTI-CHANNEL IR IMAGERY SHOWS THINNING MULTI
LAYERED CLOUDINESS OVHD WITH LIGHT NW WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
AND W-WSW IN ITS VCNTY. WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANLYS FIELDS SHOW A
NARROW MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM A LOW CENTER NEAR
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ACROSS NRN THROUGH THE BIG BEND AREA.

TODAY/TONIGHT...LITTLE MOVEMENT TO THE SURFACE AND MID-UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES EXPECTED TODAY AS THEY ESSENTIALLY WEAKEN IN SITU. RATHER
WEAK PRES/WIND PATTERN WILL ALLOW COASTAL SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP
AND BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER MEAN MOISTURE
AND THUS BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE SRN HALF
CWA...WITH POPS TRENDING RAPIDLY DOWNWARD TO THE NORTH. FAIRLY STEEP
POP GRADIENT...RANGING FROM 20 FOR LAKE/NRN VOLUSIA TO 50 FOR THE
TREASURE COAST/LAKE OKEE REGION. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LINGERING
EARLY EVENING SHOWER OR STORM. TEMPS LOOK FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
WITH M80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND U80S TO NEAR 90F INLAND.

MON-TUE...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO 2 INCHES... ARE SLOW TO CLEAR FLORIDA. VORTICITY
MAXES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MOVING NORTHEAST IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH KEEPS RAIN CHANCES HIGH...60
PERCENT...BOTH DAYS. HIGHS MID AND UPPER 80S.

WED-SAT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY CLEARS CENTRAL FLORIDA BUT
THE MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND KEEPING RAIN CHANCES HIGH..60 POP...FOR
ANOTHER DAY BEFORE DROPPING DOWN TO AND IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES. RAIN
CHANCES DROP TO 50 PERCENT THU THEN 30 TO 50 PERCENT THU THROUGH SAT
AS EASTERLY PULLS ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. DEEPENING
EASTERLY FLOW USUALLY HAS THE RAIN AND STORMS START EARLY AT THE
COAST THEN QUICKLY PUSH INLAND EARLY AFTERNOON AND LEAVE THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AT THE COAST
AND LOW 90S INLAND. HIGHS MID AND UPPER 80S.

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH ABOUT 16Z...WITH SHRA/TS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. LOWEST THREAT FOR LEE-SFB-DAB
BUT LEFT IN PROB GROUPS TO THE SOUTH.

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...A GENTLE TO MODERATE OFFSHORE (NW-WRLY) BREEZE WILL
SLACKEN...ALLOWING FOR ONSHORE COASTAL SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS SLACKEN FURTHER TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE
REBUILDS JUST TO OUR EAST. SEAS GENERALLY 3-4FT TODAY...SUBSIDING TO
2-3FT LATE TONIGHT.

MON-THU...LIGHT WINDS ON MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILD
FROM THE ATLC TWD CENTRAL FLORIDA. WINDS BECOME ONSHORE/EASTERLY TUE
AND REMAIN ONSHORE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST BUILDS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE
THAN 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 86 72 87 73 / 20 20 60 40
MCO 89 73 88 72 / 30 20 70 40
MLB 86 73 85 76 / 40 20 70 40
VRB 87 72 87 75 / 50 20 80 50
LEE 89 73 87 72 / 20 20 60 40
SFB 88 73 88 73 / 30 20 60 40
ORL 89 74 88 73 / 30 20 70 40
FPR 87 72 87 76 / 50 20 80 50

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....WIMMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

957 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. TUESDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NEAR
THE COAST.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN
PERSIST ACROSS AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. RAIN IS
LIKELY TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC ASSENT
CONTINUES ATOP THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS NOW WELL TO THE SOUTH. THE
HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE COAST
OVERNIGHT. UPDATED THE GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECASTS TO MAKE
ADDITIONAL MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY POPS AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH ABOUT 2 AM.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF COLD FROPA...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL FEATURE STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A PERSISTENT TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER COASTAL WATERS/CLOSE TO THE COAST AND A CUT-OFF
UPPER LOW MEANDERING OVER OR CLOSE TO THE REGION. THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WILL FAVOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS...BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND SOME DEGREE OF POPS MUCH OF THE TIME...TAPERED
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE INLAND TO CHANCE/LIKELY NEAR THE COAST.
CHANGES SHOULD REMAIN SUBTLE...AND FORECAST DETAILS INCLUDING
DEVIATIONS FROM THIS GENERAL SCENARIO WILL BE ADDRESSED WITHIN
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE UPCOMING NEAR
TERM PERIODS.

HIGHEST PWATS AND DEEPEST MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST.
HOWEVER...SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DEEP MOISTURE/AN ASSOCIATED
HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO PERIODICALLY BACK INTO COASTAL
COUNTIES...DEPENDING IN PART ON THE ORIENTATION/EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER LOW.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERHAPS ONE OF THE LONGEST HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE PATTERNS IS IN STORE
FOR THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE PERIODS. THE EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH MAINTAINS CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS...
BETTER RAIN CHANCES AND COOL TEMPS. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THERE ARE
LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEEP LONGWAVE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A GULF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY LIFT NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...-RA WILL PERSIST AT KCHS WITH A RISK FOR SHOWER IMMEDIATE
SHOWER IMPACTS LASTING TO ABOUT 03Z. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE OVERNIGHT SO ITS HARD TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY
WHEN SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINAL AFTER 03Z. WILL NOT CARRY
ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE A RISK. LARGE DISCREPANCIES ON HOW LOW CIGS WILL GET
OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST NAM AND LAV GUIDANCE KEEPS CIGS VFR WHILE
THE RUC CRASHES CIGS TO LIFR AFTER 06Z. VERY TOUGH CALL ON THIS.
OPTED TO A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH WITH PREVAILING LOW-END
MVFR CIGS 05-14Z WITH VFR THEREAFTER. AMENDMENTS WILL MOST
CERTAINLY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT AS TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT.

KSAV...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS GENERALLY ENDED...THOUGH LOW-END
SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL LINGER WEST AND NORTH OF THE TERMINAL
THROUGH 05Z. OPTED FOR A TEMPO GROUP FOR HIGH END MVFR VSBYS IN
-SHRA 02-05Z TO COVER. PREVAILING MVFR CIGS THEREAFTER WITH VFR
RETURNING BY 14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THU FRI BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR
MVFR CEILINGS INCREASE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST.

.MARINE...
NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD DOWN THE COAST AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND INLAND HIGH
PRESSURE TIGHTENS. WINDS LOOK TO MAX OUT AT 15-20 KT WITH SEAS 2-4
FT THROUGH SUNRISE.

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...A COASTAL TROUGH AND SOME DEGREE OF
MARINE LAYER INSTABILITY/MIXING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ELEVATED NORTHEAST WINDS/ASSOCIATED ELEVATED SEAS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TO ADDRESS THE INITIAL SURFACE OF STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS...RAISED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR ALL MARINE ZONES BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING NORTH...INCLUDING
CHARLESTON HARBOR...AND EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH. PER GUIDANCE
SIGNALS SUGGESTING A SUBTLE LULL IN WINDS/SEAS THURSDAY...ENDED ALL
ADVISORIES AT 5 AM THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH THAT ANY LULL WILL OCCUR...AND ADJUSTMENTS TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TIMES COULD BE NEEDED TOWARD MIDWEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...LOCAL GUIDANCE YIELDED A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS ON AREA BEACHES TUESDAY...MAINLY DUE TO STRONG ONSHORE
WINDS. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST LATE THIS WEEK...AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WILL RESULT
IN MODERATE CHANCES FOR SHALLOW COASTAL/SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SC COAST INCLUDING
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON. SINCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR A COMBINATION OF FRESH/SALT WATER FLOODING IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS
NEAR THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

.EQUIPMENT...
THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WEATHER SENSOR AT WATERFRONT PARK /KCXM/
IS INOPERABLE. IT IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME WHEN THE SENSOR WILL BE
RETURNED TO SERVICE. HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND DAILY CLIMATE
INFORMATION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR AMZ330-352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR AMZ354-374.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

817 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ANOTHER UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO TAKE CURRENT RADAR...WIND AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS INTO ACCOUNT.

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...-RA WILL PERSIST AT KCHS WITH A RISK FOR SHOWER IMMEDIATE
SHOWER IMPACTS LASTING TO ABOUT 03Z. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE OVERNIGHT SO ITS HARD TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY
WHEN SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINAL AFTER 03Z. WILL NOT CARRY
ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE A RISK. LARGE DISCREPANCIES ON HOW LOW CIGS WILL GET
OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST NAM AND LAV GUIDANCE KEEPS CIGS VFR WHILE
THE RUC CRASHES CIGS TO LIFR AFTER 06Z. VERY TOUGH CALL ON THIS.
OPTED TO A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH WITH PREVAILING LOW-END
MVFR CIGS 05-14Z WITH VFR THEREAFTER. AMENDMENTS WILL MOST
CERTAINLY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT AS TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT.

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO AND
THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TURN
AROUND TO EVENTUALLY BECOME NORTHEASTERLY THANKS TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO THE NORTH. THE STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT A NOTEWORTHY SURGE LATE TONIGHT WITH ALMOST
ALL OF THE WATERS BECOMING 15-20 KT. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS MORE. ALSO...SINCE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL AFTER THE TONIGHT PERIOD...SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT
TONIGHT WITH A FEW 4 FOOTERS PERHAPS BLEEDING INTO THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS VERY LATE. THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EVENING...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING WIND
GUSTS OF 40 KT.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS POCATELLO ID

924 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...REMNANTS OF CIRCULATION MOVING THROUGH WYOMING LINGER
THIS EVENING OVER EAST IDAHO. WEAK CONVECTION STILL OCCURRING
ALONG WYOMING BORDER AND OVER CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THOUGH
REFLECTIVITIES SHOWING A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND ALREADY. MUCH
STRONGER CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER EASTERN OREGON IN RESPONSE TO
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH STATE. NAM AND HRRR SHIFT LINE
OF CONVECTION NORTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN IDAHO...MISSING EAST IDAHO
FORECAST AREA ENTIRELY. GFS AND RAP HINTS AT ISOLATED CONVECTION
CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AFTER 06Z. CURRENT GRID
DEPICTION STILL MAINTAINS ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTORMS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS 03Z-12Z. BELIEVE CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO
UPDATES ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING. DMH

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 155 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK UPPER LOW
POSITIONED OVER WRN WYOMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT NE TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND PATCHY VALLEY FOG
ANTICIPATED TUESDAY MORNING. WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS EVENING THEN RAPIDLY
DECREASE PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OFF THE WEST COAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
A CORRESPONDING RIDGE BUILDING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE ROCKIES WHICH
WILL BRING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION BY MID-WEEK.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WITHIN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
INTO THE 80S WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY FALLING SHORT OF RECORDS. HUSTON

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INLAND FRIDAY...CONTINUING ITS EWRD TREK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE OPERATIONAL GFS REMAINS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE MODEL WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE LAGGARD. THE CURRENT
FORECAST GENERALLY FAVORS A SOLUTION SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE GEM
(CANADIAN MODEL...WHICH WAS FALLING BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN
TIMING) AND THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION...ALL OF WHICH WOULD HAVE THE
ONSET FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS SE IDAHO STARTING SOMETIME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND THEN
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SOMETIME SUNDAY. WITH THAT SCENARIO
IN MIND...WE HAVE BOOSTED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND
AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THAT TREND AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEAR. HUSTON

AVIATION...HAVE VICINITY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL SITES
EARLY THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. MOST
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN EAST OF TAF SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. ALTHOUGH NOT IN TAFS POSSIBILITY OF FOG MAINLY IN IDA
TUESDAY MORNING. OTHER THAN POSSIBLE MORNING FOG VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. GK

FIRE WEATHER...WILL HAVE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING MAINLY IN ZONES 476...410 AND 411. EXPECT DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
WET AND COOLER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND. GK

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BOISE ID

900 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW IN WRN NEVADA IS MAKING STEADY NEWD PROGRESS
TOWARD OUR CWA. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A MORE DIRECT HIT
THAN MODELS INDICATE. MODELS FAVOR A TRACK TO THE SWRN CORNER OF
IDAHO THIS EVENING THEN ENE ACROSS SRN IDAHO TONIGHT. OUR SERN-MOST
ZONES INCLUDING TWIN FALLS COUNTY REMAIN THE AREA OF GREATEST
CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING AS AIR MASS IN ERN NEVADA IS
VERY MOIST. WFO ELKO STILL HAS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NERN NEVADA
FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HPC NOW INCLUDES SWRN IDAHO AS WELL AS
NERN NEVADA FOR AN ELEVATED RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. WE ARE
CONSIDERING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING BUT
NOT AS FAR NORTH OR WEST AS HPC SUGGESTS. DECISION WILL BE MADE
LATER THIS MORNING AFTER REVIEW OF ALL 12Z GUIDANCE. REST OF CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A
KREO-KMUO-FAIRFIELD LINE BY 18Z. AFTER 18Z WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SOUTH
OF A JORDAN VALLEY-KMUO-FAIRFIELD LINE...LOCALLY HEAVY SOUTH AND
EAST OF KMUO WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS AND TERRAIN OBSCURATION...
SPREADING OVER THE BOISE MOUNTAINS EAST OF IDAHO CITY BY 00Z. AFTER
06Z SCATTERED SHOWERS DECREASING TO ISOLATED MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN BY 12Z. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS
ALOFT...NORTHEAST UP TO 15 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...RADAR ECHOES WERE ACROSS NW NV
TO EAST CENTRAL NV AT 3 AM. THUNDERSTORMS WERE EVEN FARTHER SOUTH
NEARER THE UPPER LOW CENTER WHICH WAS OVER CENTRAL CA PER WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. HRRR RUNS UNAVAILABLE SINCE 20Z. GFS AND NAM BRING
SHOWERS N OF THE NV BORDER TODAY WITH THE NAM EXTENDING THE SHOWERS
TO CHALLIS...THE OWYHEE MTS...AND KLAMATH FALLS THIS EVENING AND
OVER IDAHO TONIGHT THEN NE OREGON AND IDAHO MTNS MONDAY. THE GFS WAS
A BIT SLOWER AND FARTHER S AND W. LIMITED INSTABILITY WAS ALSO
PRESENT IN THE GFS/NAM SO HELD OFF ON THE THUNDERSTORMS...GREATEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE ID MTNS SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
THEN RETURN TO 5-10 ABOVE NORMAL FOR TONIGHT /DUE TO CLOUDS/ AND
MONDAY DUE TO MILD W TO SW FLOW ALOFT.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS STILL SHOWING A
PATTERN CHANGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEK TO COLD AND WET. HOWEVER...THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE NEXT TROUGH TILL LATE THURSDAY NOW ON
THE 00Z RUNS. THEREAFTER THE MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY...THUS
CONFIDENCE REMAIN LOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ONSHORE BRINGING MOISTURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW IDAHO WHICH
WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FRIDAY HAS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE MODELS DIVERGE
BEGINNING FRIDAY WITH THE 00Z GFS SLOWLY MOVING THE FRONT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA AND INTO EASTERN IDAHO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF
STALLS THE FRONT OVER SW IDAHO ON FRIDAY AS A CLOSED LOW FORMS OVER
RENO ON SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY THOUGH THE AMOUNTS AND DURATION VARY GREATLY WITH
THE ECMWF BRINGING MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND GFS
BRINGING MOISTURE /FAR LESS AT THAT/ FROM THE PACIFIC. FOR NOW...
ABOVE CLIMO POPS AND NEAR CLIMO TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY.

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JDS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BOISE ID

324 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...RADAR ECHOES WERE ACROSS NW
NV TO EAST CENTRAL NV AT 3 AM. THUNDERSTORMS WERE EVEN FARTHER
SOUTH NEARER THE UPPER LOW CENTER WHICH WAS OVER CENTRAL CA PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HRRR RUNS UNAVAILABLE SINCE 20Z. GFS AND NAM
BRING SHOWERS N OF THE NV BORDER TODAY WITH THE NAM EXTENDING THE
SHOWERS TO CHALLIS...THE OWYHEE MTS...AND KLAMATH FALLS THIS
EVENING AND OVER IDAHO TONIGHT THEN NE OREGON AND IDAHO MTNS
MONDAY. THE GFS WAS A BIT SLOWER AND FARTHER S AND W. LIMITED
INSTABILITY WAS ALSO PRESENT IN THE GFS/NAM SO HELD ON THE
THUNDERSTORMS...GREATEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE ID MTNS
SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
TODAY BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL THEN RETURN TO 5-10 ABOVE NORMAL FOR
TONIGHT /DUE TO CLOUDS/ AND MONDAY DUE TO MILD W TO SW FLOW ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS STILL SHOWING A
PATTERN CHANGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEK TO COLD AND WET. HOWEVER...THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE NEXT TROUGH TILL LATE THURSDAY NOW ON
THE 00Z RUNS. THEN THERE AFTER THE MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY THUS
CONFIDENCE REMAIN LOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE BRINGING MOISTURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW
IDAHO WHICH WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FRIDAY
HAS THE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
THE MODELS DIVERGE BEGINNING FRIDAY WITH THE 00Z GFS SLOWLY MOVING
THE FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND INTO EASTERN IDAHO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF...STALLS THE FRONT OVER SW IDAHO ON FRIDAY AS A
CLOSED LOW FORMS OVER RENO ON SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY THOUGH THE AMOUNTS
AND DURATION VARY GREATLY WITH THE ECMWF BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH AND GFS BRINGING MOISTURE /FAR LESS AT THAT/ FROM
THE PACIFIC. FOR NOW...ABOVE CLIMO POPS AND NEAR CLIMO
TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

.AVIATION...VFR THIS MORNING. INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
SNAKE RIVER VALLEY BEFORE 18Z...SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY INTO THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z. BY 00Z...EXPECT
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER
SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTH OF KMUO. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST AT 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTH TO WEST AROUND 10
KTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JDS
AVIATION.....JDS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

730 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 723 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

ADJUSTED POP/WX FOR CURRENT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER YUMA COUNTY.
MEAN WIND WOULD GENERALLY FAVOR THIS SLIDING EAST. SOUTHERN EDGE
COULD SEE FURTHER DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT TO THE SW AHEAD OF
TROUGH AXIS...AND COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT COULD ALLOW FOR THIS
ACTIVITY SLIDING FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS I-70 CORRIDOR (IN LINE WITH
HRRR). THERE IS ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OFF PALMER DIVIDE.
THERE IS STILL A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR AND LIKELY SUBSIDENCE
MOVING NE OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...HOWEVER AS LONG AS
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH H5 TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE INTO THE
AREA WE COULD SEE ACTIVITY LINGER FURTHER INTO THE NIGHT. HAVE
BLENDED TOWARDS PREVIOUS FORECAST WITHOUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OR
DRY SIGNAL IN GUIDANCE TO DECREASE INHERITED POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSITION SHOULD STILL BE WEST TO EAST FOLLOWING TIMING OF MAIN
UPPER LOW.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE TRI STATE AREA THROUGH NORTHERN
COLORADO. AT THE SFC...TROUGHING NEAR THE KS/CO STATE LINE HAD
RESULTED IN STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED STRONG TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. NEAR
TERM MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT ELEVATED MOSTLY WEAK INSTABILITY
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT...BUT NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS SHOWING
A HIGH DEGREE OF VARIABILITY ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS APPROACH
HOLDING HIGHEST POPS ALONG NORTHERN CWA WHICH IS CLOSER TO UPPER
LOW CENTER. MORNING UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PW VALUES AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...BUT WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY...MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND SCATTERED NATURE OF CURRENT
PRECIPITATION HAVE KEPT ONLY MODEST PRECIP AMOUNTS.

PRECIP THREAT WILL DIMINISH TOMORROW MORNING AS UPPER TROUGH
DEPARTS AND FRONT STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA. THIS FRONT MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS SHOULD CINH
BE OVERCOME.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENT SHOWING A WEAKENING UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING
INTO MINNESOTA WITH A TRAILING TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS. AFTER THAT...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE RAPIDLY
AS TO THE FATE OF THE UPPER LOW. BY THURSDAY EVENING...GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE UPPER LOW ANYWHERE FROM AMARILLO TX /NAM/ TO ROCHESTER
MN /EC/. THE NAM LOOKS TOO FAR WEST AND TOO FAST WITH SLOWER
EC/GFS PREFERRED. BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY GIVEN MODEL
SOLUTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD.

THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS BASED ON A BLEND OF GENERAL MODEL TRENDS
WHICH BASICALLY HAS THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER LOW MORE OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS WITH OUR AREA TEMPORARILY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPSTREAM UPPER HIGH WHICH STRETCHES FROM THE DAKOTAS TO
COLORADO. SO IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE TRENDED DOWNWARD WEST TO EAST WITH
SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING ALOFT BEING TO OUR EAST. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT
WITH THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER LOW AND BRING IT BACK NORTH...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN TO SAY THE LEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WERE KEPT DRY UNTIL THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT
AT SHRA/TSRA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 80S MID TO LATE WEEK BUT
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES NEXT WEEKEND...AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE 70S WITH ENHANCED POTENTIAL
FOR CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 516 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE WITHIN VICINITY OF BOTH
TERMINALS AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NE COLORADO SHOULD MOVE ALONG KS/NE BORDER AND
POSSIBLY IMPACT KMCK DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS SHOULD END
AT KGLD FIRST...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF MAIN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AT KMCK. SHORT TERM AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWING STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG KS/CO BORDER WHICH
COULD IMPACT KGLD...POSSIBLY KMCK AROUND 12Z. I KEPT IFR CIG GROUP
IN PLACE AROUND 12Z AT KGLD...BUT I AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
LOWER CONDITIONS AT KMCK WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER MID MORNING TUESDAY REGARDLESS OF
EVOLUTION OF STRATUS AS MIXING INCREASES AT BOTH TERMINALS.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...DR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

516 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WERE KEPT DRY UNTIL THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT
AT SHRA/TSRA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 516 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...DR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

209 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT...NOW JUST ENTERING
EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER GIVEN SOME OF THE SLIGHTLY MORE PROMISING RETURNS OCCURRING
UPSTREAM. ALSO FRESHENED UP THE REST OF THE HOURLY SKY COVER AND
TEMPERATURES. ACTUALLY HAD TO RAISE HIGHS BACK UP AS A SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING LINE IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WHILE THE COLDER AIR
LAGS WELL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO POP UP
TO AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1106 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY NEAR A KCVG TO KSDF TO KPAH
LINE. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN BOUNDARY IS
STARTING TO INITIATE TO SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY GENERALLY
SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. CLOUD COVER
HAS EXPANDED RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND THE LATEST
LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LOOKING WEAK ACCORDING TO THE
SPC MESO-ANALYSIS. GIVEN THESE TRENDS...HAVE REDUCED THE THUNDER
CHANCES AS WELL AS THE SMALL HAIL MENTION IN THE HWO. WILL LEAVE THE
MENTION OF SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS FOR NOW. ALSO
TRIMMED A FEW DEGREES OFF OF THE HIGHS GIVEN THE THICKER CLOUDS
ALREADY ON TOP OF US. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS. THERE IS
NOT MUCH ACTIVITY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AT THIS
POINT. HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER OVER THE CWA OTHER
THAN RIVER VALLEY FOG AND SOME STRAY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME HEATING DURING THE AM AND AS THE HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED
TO FALL OVER THE OH VALLEY AS THE SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP. THE 9Z HRRR AS WELL AS THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS AND TO SOME DEGREE
THE NAM GUIDANCE IS IN LINE WITH THIS THINKING. OVERALL...NO MAJOR
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS ATTM.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING....AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND WEST TX REGION WITH RIDGING NORTHWEST INTO THE
ROCKIES AND EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. TO OUR
SOUTHEAST A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE SOUTH INTO FL AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN INITIAL
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST LOCALLY WORKING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ATTM. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WITH A SFC LOW PRESSURE
WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION WITH THE
BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION.

THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL BE
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN TROUGH...THE INITIAL
TROUGH AND THE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST CARVING OUT A
TROUGH FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC INTO NORTHEASTERN US REGION DOWN INTO
THE OH VALLEY REGION BY THIS EVENING. THIS TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT EAST AND NORTHEAST PUSHING EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF EAST KY BY MID
MORNING ON MONDAY AND EXTEND FROM QUEBEC INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE OH RIVER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED FROM THE MID OH
VALLEY REGION WEST TO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

SOME VALLEY FOG IS PRESENT THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME PASSING
CLOUDS IN THE 6 TO 8KFT RANGE. 1A6 AND I35 RECENTLY REPORTED VIS DOWN
BELOW 1 MILE WITH DENSE FOG AT I35. PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN
THE GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH A COUPLE MORE HOURS
OF PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR THE DEEPER EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
VALLEY LOCATIONS IN PORTIONS OF THE BIG SANDY...KENTUCKY...LIKING AND
UPPER CUMBERLAND RIVER BASINS. IN MORE OPEN TERRAIN LOCATIONS...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO DISSIPATE THE FOG OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS OR PREVENT IT FROM FORMING ALL TOGETHER.

A COUPLE BANDS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO OR DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN KY BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AND DEPART MOST OF THE AREA BY SUNSET...AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND WORKS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
RECENT SHORT TERM MODEL RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND THUNDER WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. POPS IN THE 50 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE WERE USED
IN THIS AREA. PENDING THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY FROM HEATING AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MODEL FORECAST MID LEVEL
DRYING...AND DECENT SPEED SHEAR COULD COMBINE FOR THE STRONGEST
STORMS TO PRODUCE SOME HAIL OR STRONG WINDS GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS ALSO CONSISTENT
WITH THIS THINKING. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE ADDED TO THE HWO. WITH A
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT THAT COULD MIX DOWN...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 MPH OR SO WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MORE OPEN TERRAIN LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME GUSTS
OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE.

THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON MONDAY MAY BE DEEP
ENOUGH AS THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WORKS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BEING DEEP ENOUGH FOR TOUCH OF DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES
GENERALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA AND THE VA BORDER
COUNTIES. THE 0Z GFS GENERATES SOME LIGHT QPF IN SOME OF THIS AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON MONDAY. THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO WV. EITHER WAY THERE
SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS OR STRATOCU OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY ON
MONDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE MORE COLD AIR ADVECTION DRIVEN WITH SOME OF THE FAR
EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS THAT WARMEST ON AVERAGE.

THE LINGERING CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON MONDAY. THE
MORNING STRATOCU SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT INTO SOME FLAT CU JUST BELOW
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH THESE GRADUALLY MIXING OUT OR LARGELY
MIXING OUT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS AT 0Z
TUESDAY...TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO REMAIN STRONG OVER THE
REGION...WITH WINDS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT PULLING DRY AND
COLDER AIR IN FROM CANADA. SOME OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT
COLD AIR WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. MORNING LOWS WILL ONLY
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND
OR JUST ABOVE THE 70 DEGREE MARK. OVER THE COURSE OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO OUR NE...BUT THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN BLOCKED OVER THE REGION. AS SUCH...DRY
AIR WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH THE
LOSS OF STRONGEST NRLY WIND FLOW AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND RISING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN SOME LOCATIONS ONCE
MORE BY SATURDAY.

THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL IS POINTING AT A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE
REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD...NAMELY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ALLOWING
MOISTURE FLOW AND PRECIP CHANCES TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
WHILE A COUPLE OF OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES WERE ON BOARD WITH
INCLUDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...THE UNCERTAINTY FAVORED LEAVING THEM
OUT AT THE JKL CWA AT THIS TIME. SO FAR...THE MODEL AGREEMENT PAST
THE MID TERM IS QUITE LOW. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH
THIS PRECIP...AND VERY LOW QPF AT THAT. MORE THAN LIKELY...THE SUPER
BLEND IS BEING INFLUENCED BY THIS LATEST ECMWF RUN...WHICH LED TO
THE MENTION OF A FEW 15 POPS IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT FORECAST.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS SHOWS NO SIGN OF THIS LOW NEAR THE REGION /IT
HAS IT DEVELOPING MUCH FARTHER S AND MUCH WEAKER/ OR ANY PRECIP
MOVING INTO KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT...LOWERED
ANY 15 POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT BACK DOWN TO 14. WILL WAIT UNTIL
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OR SHOW MORE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
RUNS BEFORE DECIDING TO INCLUDE POPS IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CAN
ALSO NOT BE RULED OUT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. GUSTY WSW WINDS OF 10 TO
20 KTS WILL VEER TO THE W AND WNW THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BEFORE DIMINISHING. ONCE SKIES CLEAR OUT
TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SOME IFR STRATUS TOWARDS DAWN. IF
THIS DOES FORM...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE MOST OF THE MORNING TO LIFT AND
SCATTER OUT.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

1106 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING FOG...AFFECTING SME WITH MVFR...VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE
PERIOD. SOME LINGERING IFR OR LOWER FOG WILL LIFT OUT OF SOME OF THE
DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS THROUGH 14Z. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY WITH CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM 16Z THROUGH 0Z. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
CIGS AND VIS WITH SHRA AND SOME TSRA SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE
VFR RANGE...THOUGH SOME BRIEF MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS OR STORMS. AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION MIXES OUT
THROUGH 16Z...LIGHT WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 10KT FOR THE TAF SITES BY AROUND 16Z...WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 20KT POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 16Z TO 22Z. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT GENERALLY 21Z THROUGH 0Z
AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TO BELOW
10KT LATE IN THE PERIOD. SOME STRATOCU WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING MVFR CIGS LATE IN THE PERIOD.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

759 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS AT 0Z
TUESDAY...TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO REMAIN STRONG OVER THE
REGION...WITH WINDS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT PULLING DRY AND
COLDER AIR IN FROM CANADA. SOME OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT
COLD AIR WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. MORNING LOWS WILL ONLY
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND
OR JUST ABOVE THE 70 DEGREE MARK. OVER THE COURSE OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO OUR NE...BUT THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN BLOCKED OVER THE REGION. AS SUCH...DRY
AIR WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH THE
LOSS OF STRONGEST NRLY WIND FLOW AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND RISING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN SOME LOCATIONS ONCE
MORE BY SATURDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

424 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS AT 0Z
TUESDAY...TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO REMAIN STRONG OVER THE
REGION...WITH WINDS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT PULLING DRY AND
COLDER AIR IN FROM CANADA. SOME OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT
COLD AIR WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. MORNING LOWS WILL ONLY
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND
OR JUST ABOVE THE 70 DEGREE MARK. OVER THE COURSE OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO OUR NE...BUT THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN BLOCKED OVER THE REGION. AS SUCH...DRY
AIR WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH THE
LOSS OF STRONGEST NRLY WIND FLOW AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND RISING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN SOME LOCATIONS ONCE
MORE BY SATURDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

OUTSIDE OF PATCHY FOG...AFFECTING LOZ AND SME WITH MAINLY MVFR FOG
AND SOME IFR OR LOWER FOG IN SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS...
MAINLY VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 14Z. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH INTO THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON THE INCREASE. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS CIGS AND VIS WITH
SHRA AND SOME TSRA SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE...THOUGH SOME
BRIEF MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS OR STORMS. AS
THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AND THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION MIXES OUT...
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 10KT FOR THE TAF SITES BY AROUND 15Z...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO
20KT POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY 16Z TO 22Z. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT GENERALLY 21Z THROUGH 0Z AND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TO BELOW 10KT LATE IN
THE PERIOD.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

1038 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF HIGH
PRESSURE MONDAY THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE...WITH EFFECTS
GENERALLY EAST OF OUR AREA. LOW CLOUDS OVER BALTIMORE HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO MOVE OUT BUT WILL SCATTER THROUGH MIDDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM OHIO WITH A LEADING BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS APPROACHING THE ALLEGHENY FRONT (ETA BETWEEN 11 AND NOON).
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT SWLY
FLOW WHICH WILL INCREASE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. MAX TEMPS BUMPED UP
TO THE MID TO UPR 80S. THE INITIAL LINE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. THERE
SHOULD BE A LULL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE
RECHARGES...THEN SHOWERS AND UP TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...ISOLATED AT BEST EAST. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS (10
AND 11Z) HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THIS INITIAL BAND...BUT CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP MORE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
MINIMAL...BUT A MINOR WIND THREAT IS PRESENT WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EAST THROUGH THE BALT-
WASH METRO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

NWLY FLOW INCREASES BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTING 20 TO 25 MPH LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE. NO FOG TONIGHT WITH MIXING...MIN TEMPS
MID TO UPR 50S INLAND...LOW TO MID 60S NEAR SHORE.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY BRINGING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WEST TO THE MID 40S TO 50S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIPRES WL BE ACROSS MOST OF THE ERN CONUS THRU THE END OF THE
WK. H5 RDG WL BE BLDG TOO. AT FIRST GLANCE...THAT WUD SEEM LIKE A
CUT-N-DRY FCST. HWVR...THERE IS A CATCH.

ECMWF GDNC SUGGESTING A CUTOFF LOW IN THE MIDST OF THE H5 RDG...OR
IN OTHER WORDS...A WEAKNESS IN THE HGT PTTN. THERE/S RATHER POOR
AGREEMENT ON A FEATURE SO SUBTLE SVRL DAYS OUT. HWVR...SFC FLOW WL
BE NLY TUE BUT VEER ELY WED-THU...AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WL
BE ATOP NEW ENGLAND/NYS BY THEN. AT THE VERY LEAST...CANNOT RULE OUT
AN INCREASE IN MSTR AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO /OR A PATCH OF DZ?/.
SO AT THIS JUNCTURE...WL KEEP TUE SUNNY...BRING CLDS INLAND WED...
AND OFFER UP SOME LOW END POPS /20-30 PCT/ WED NGT-THU. CHOOSING A
STRATIFORM PCP CHARACTER.

AM THINKING AS THE UPR RDG BLDS TO THE W OF THE AREA...THAT MAY BE
ENUF TO ALLOW SFC RDGG TO RETROGRADE. IF THAT DOES HPPN...THEN WE/LL
LOSE THE ONSHORE FLOW...AND THE MARINE AMS WL LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE
RGN. DONT HV THE HIEST OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTLOOK...BUT DONT WANT
TO CARRY A PROLONGED PD OF LOW POPS UNDER HIPRES W/O A CLEARER
SIGNAL.

CAN SAY THIS...HIER HGTS WL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS. MAXT TUE-THU NOT
FAR OFF FM BAY WATER TEMPS...WHICH IS ABT 5 OR 6 DEGF COOLER THAN
CLIMO. WE/LL BE BACK NEAR NORMAL AGN FRI-SUN.

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...DECREASING TO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR DC METROS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WLY FLOW. ANY
IMPACT TO THE DC METROS IS IN 21-00Z TIMEFRAME. NWLY FLOW BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT GUSTS TO 20 KT...NO FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...VFR UNDER HIPRES.
WED-THU...ONSHORE FLOW MAY BRING A STRATUS DECK INLAND. FLGT
RESTRICTIONS PSBL...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW.

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY EXCEPT WHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS IN NWLY FLOW
GUSTING TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

NLY FLOW TUE WL VEER ELY FOR WED-THU. GDNC SUGGESTING ELY FLOW MAY BE
STIFF...POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING SCA CONDS OVER A PORTION OF THE
WATERS /MID BAY/.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NLY FLOW HAS DECREASED DEPARTURES TO THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT OR
LESS. A BRIEF SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS EVENING MAY RAISE LEVELS
AGAIN...SO SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
PREFERRED HIGH TIDE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NWLY FLOW THAT WILL FURTHER DECREASE
DEPARTURES. THIS IS A COMPLICATED ISSUE AND WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED.

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ530>543.

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/HTS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/KRW
SHORT TERM...KRW
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BAJ/HTS/KRW
MARINE...BAJ/HTS/KRW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

236 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC HI PRES EXITING E OF NEW ENG THIS EVE...WHILE SFC LO PRES
SLOLY DEVELOPING SE OF CHS. RA FM ECNTRL NC CONTS TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY MOVING INTO CSTL NE NC SO FAR THIS EVE. 00Z/21 RUC
BRINGS AT LEAST SCT SHRAS NWD ACRS CSTL NE NC...MNLY E OF THE
CHOWAN RIVER...AND INTO EXTREME SE VA AFT 04-06Z/21. HAVE INCRSD
POPS A LITTLE OVR THOSE AREAS FOR THE REST OF THE NGT...WHILE LWRG
POPS TO THE N OVR THE ERN SHORES OF VA/MD. WIDESPREAD CLDNS WILL
COVER MOST OF ERN INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE FA OVRNGT...THOUGH
LOWEST CIGS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF HAMPTON RDS ON S
OVR (CSTL) NE NC.

ONLY MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS FOR THE OVRNGT HRS BASED
ON TRENDS AND LATEST NEAR TERM GUID. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH
MANY AREAS W OF I95 CORRIDOR AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW 60F. CLOSER
TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE
60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT
IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST RUC SLOWER W/ EXIT OF CLDS/PCPN INVOF (SE VA/NE NC) CST SUN
MORNING...SO HAVE SLOWED DOWN TAPERING OF POPS W-E. OTRW...THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO
THE LOWER 80S...AS CONDS ARE P/MSNY W...AND CLEARING (MIDDAY/AFTN)
E.

A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY
IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY (AS OF 06Z) TRACKING NNE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK THROUGH
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. RA OVER ERN NC IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE N OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE N. ECG
COULD EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL -RA THROUGH 12Z...BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON VSBY. STRATUS AT SBY SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z...AND IFR AT ORF SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
ELSEWHERE...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT RIC/PHF...SO TEMPO IFR HAS BEEN
INCLUDED AT BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING 08-09Z AND ENDING 12Z. THE
LOW SHOULD QUICKLY PULLS OFF TO THE NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
THE WIND SHIFTING FROM NE TO NW ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NW. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER TODAY AND
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO SW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM RIC TO SBY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.

.MARINE...
8 PM UPDATE...SEAS AND WAVES AT CAPE CHARLES BUOY AND FIRST
LANDING RESPECTIVELY ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGN OF SUBSIDING.
MODELS ARE INSISTENT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS SOON AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN WAVES DROPPING BELOW SCA IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. THE
SCA EXPIRATION OF 10 PM SEEMED TOO SOON FOR THAT AND ADJUSTED
THAT TO 1 AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SFC HI PRES STRETCHES DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC
CST TNGT AS LO PRES PASSES OFFSHORE. AS FAR AS HEADLINES...SCA OVR
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL CONTINUE THRU 10 PM DUE TO 4 FT WAVES.
HIGH SEAS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVR THE CSTL WTRS DUE TO PROLONGED
ERLY/NERLY FETCH. WILL CONTINUE HEADLINES THERE INTO
TOMORO...ENDING THEM FM N TO S THRU THE DAY AS FLOW BCMS NLY. A
COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE SUN/ERLY MON...WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-SCA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A WEAK GRADIENT AND
CAA. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF THE AREA MON NGT MAY
BRING WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND
15 KT FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES AND SEAS
AND SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MONITORING TIDES INVOF MIDDLE BAY (SPECIFICALLY LEWISETTA
VA...CAMBRIDGE AND BISHOPS HEAD MD)...WHERE FCST LEVELS FOR TIDES
OVNNGT TO FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ATTM.

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634-
654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-
652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ658.

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...ALB/WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...MAS/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

728 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE GREAT LKS BTWN UPR RDG IN THE PLAINS AND TROF IN ERN NAMERICA.
SFC HI PRES IS MOVING INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH LLVL WNW
FLOW ON THE NRN FLANK OF THIS FEATURE ADVECTING SOME DRY AIR SHOWN
ON THE 12Z INL RAOB TOWARD UPR MI. THERE WERE SOME CLDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS MRNG ASSOCIATED WITH WAD/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN
ON THE 290K SFC /ABOUT H85/ THIS MRNG...BUT SINCE THE COOLER AIR
UNDER THE TROF IN ERN CANADA IS RETREATING...LINGERING CLD COVER
EARLY THIS AFTN HAS SHIFTED TO MAINLY THE ERN CWA. WITH MORE
SUNSHINE OVER THE W...TEMPS HAVE RISEN ABV NORMAL AND TO 65-70 AWAY
FM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE LKS. LOOKING TO THE W...SKIES ARE
MOCLR THRU MN UNDER H5 HGT RISES/SFC RDG AXIS EXTENDING N FM THE HI
CENTER/DRY AIRMASS WITH PWAT AS LO AS 0.40-0.50 INCH...BUT MORE HI
CLDS ARE SPREADING NE THRU THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A SHRTWV
LIFTING THRU THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON TEMPS WITH DRY
HI PRES EXPECTED TO DOMINATE.

TNGT...WITH SFC HI PRES RDG MOVING OVER THE CWA UNDER RISING HGTS/
DRY AIRMASS...EXPECT MOCLR CONDITIONS. DESPITE THE DRYNESS OF THE
INCOMING AIRMASS...THE WARMTH OF THIS AIR WITH H85 TEMPS FCST NEAR
12C AT 12Z TUE AS WELL AS STEADY WNW H925 WINDS UP TO 15-20 KTS WL
KEEP TEMPS FM FALLING AS LO AS LAST NGT. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS
OVER THE INTERIOR SCENTRAL CLOSER TO THE LIGHTER H925 WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HI PRES CENTER PASSING NEAR THE LOWER LKS. BUT TEMPS
WL NOT FALL BLO 40...SO THERE WL BE NO FROST.

TUE...AS THE SFC HI SHIFTS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...THE LLVL
FLOW IS FCST TO BACK TO THE SSW. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE UNDER
LINGERING DRY AIRMASS AND H85 TEMPS HOLDING ARND 12C...EXPECT TEMPS
TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S AWAY FM LK MODERATION...WHICH WL OCCUR MAINLY
DOWNWIND OF LK MI. BUT RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT FCST OVER THE
UPR LKS...THERE WL BE SOME LK BREEZE FORMATION/LOCAL COOLING NEAR LK
SUP.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...WHICH IS AROUND 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AT THE SFC...THE HIGH OVER MUCH OF THE NE
THIRD OF THE NATION WILL KEEP A RIDGE EXTENDED ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

AT 00Z WEDNESDAY THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER A
500MB RIDGE...WITH A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT THE 500MB
LOW TO OPEN UP BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW...AND SETS UP A TROUGH ACROSS
MN ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS UPPER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THE RESULT ACROSS UPPER MI WILL BE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY FROM W AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE W HALF. THE 500MB RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK OVERHEAD
ON FRIDAY...EXTENDING FOR BASICALLY ALL BUT THE PACIFIC NW AND THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES.

WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND FEW CLOUDS EACH NIGHT...WENT TOWARD
THE LOWER END OF FCST GUIDANCE FOR MORNING LOWS. AND WITH
PREDOMINANT S WINDS EACH DAY...THE DOWNSLOPE WAS PLAYED UP A BIT
MORE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL SITES BEING
INCREASED 1-4F.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BECOME A BIT MORE TRICKY WX/WIND
WISE...WITH A SFC TROUGH SINKING IN FROM THE N. LIMITED MOISTURE
AGAIN MAY BE LIMITED. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS SOLUTION...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS COMING BACK INTO THE FCST FOR MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 726 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD WITH DRY HIGH PRES
DOMINATING.

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

W WINDS UP TO 25 KTS INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE NCENTRAL LAKE WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT.
WITH THIS RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THRU THE WEEK AND COOL LAKE WATERS/HI STABILITY...EXPECT WINDS
NO HIER THAN 20 KTS INTO THIS WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

302 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MOST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A RIBBON OF THICKER CLOUDS REMAINING JUST WEST OF
THE NORTHLAND. THE RAP HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON BRINGING SOME OF
THESE CLOUDS BACK INTO OUR WESTERN/NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. THERE
IS SOME EASTWARD MOVEMENT TOWARD KOOCHICHING COUNTY OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL SATELLITE IMAGES. WE HAVE DO BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
OVER PARTS OF THE WEST/NORTH TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE CWA DRY THROUGH MONDAY WITH MORE SUN
EXPECTED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER THIRTIES TO LOWER FORTIES.
WE WENT ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE AND EVEN DROPPED TEMPS A BIT
MORE OVER PARTS OF OUR FAR NORTHEAST ZONES AND FROM KHYR TO KPBH.
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TEMPS CLOSELY AS IF THEY DROP A
BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED...SOME PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE. FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND RANGE FORM
THE MID SIXTIES TO AROUND SEVENTY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES AREA. AT THE
SFC A 1025MB HIGH WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE SRN GREAT LAKES. A
SLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AHEAD OF THE
NEXT INCOMING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM
THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
MAIN FORCING WILL REMAIN ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...WHICH
WILL RUN INTO A BLOCKING HIGH TO THE EAST AND LIFT TO THE NE THROUGH
NRN MN AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WED.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...AND REMAIN CONFINED TO
AREAS NORTH OF MN HIGHWAY 210 AND EWD ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE IN NW
WI. RAINFALL AMTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE
RE-ENFORCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL U.S. ON THURSDAY...AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND WARM THROUGH FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 50S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

WEAK TRAILING UPPER WAVE WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE SE TODAY BUT
ALLOW THE MID LEVEL VFR/MVFR CLOUD COVER TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND ALLOW DRIER AIR
TO MIX IN...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR FOG TONIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING AND AREAL EXTENT OF THE FOG...SO
JUST WENT WITH TEMPO GRPS AT ALL TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN BY LATE MON MORNING.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 44 69 48 70 / 0 0 0 0
INL 42 71 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
BRD 44 70 47 72 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 40 67 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
ASX 44 67 47 72 / 0 0 0 0

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS DULUTH MN

1220 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

WE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER TODAY...MAINLY TO
INCREASE FURTHER. THE RAP AND SATELLITE SUGGEST WESTERN AREAS
SHOULD SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. AS A RESULT OF THE
CLOUDS...TEMPS WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AT 3 AM...NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE
RAIN WAS GRADUALLY ENDING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION
AND IT WAS DRY IN AND AROUND BRAINERD. OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REST
OF THE AREA WAS SEEING RAIN. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 40S
IN THE ARROWHEAD TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF RAINFALL
THIS MORNING...AND CLOUD COVER AND HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THE H5 UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST AS THE DAY WEARS ON...AND THE ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTHWARD AS
WELL. WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST BY MIDDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER TO LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS WELL...BUT MAY BE A BIT
STUBBORN IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK UP TONIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

MONDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH A WESTERLY WIND. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. H85 TEMPS
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 12C.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT WARM WEATHER THIS WEEK DUE TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NORTHLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE UNITED SATES WILL HELP MAINTAIN
DRY WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION IS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS COULD HELP DEVELOP SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE NORTHLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE
WARMEST STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 62 45 70 49 / 20 0 0 0
INL 60 41 71 44 / 20 0 0 0
BRD 62 44 70 48 / 20 0 0 0
HYR 61 41 68 45 / 40 0 0 0
ASX 58 43 67 46 / 20 0 0 0

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...BJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

943 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK UP TONIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

MONDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH A WESTERLY WIND. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. H85 TEMPS
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 12C.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE A TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CIGS LIFT AND SCATTER. EXPECT
NNW TO NW WINDS OF ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TONIGHT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 62 45 70 49 / 20 0 0 0
INL 60 41 71 44 / 20 0 0 0
BRD 62 44 70 48 / 20 0 0 0
HYR 61 41 68 45 / 40 0 0 0
ASX 58 43 67 46 / 20 0 0 0

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAS VEGAS NV

845 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY CAUSING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA...THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA BY THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF THE
COMING WEEK FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...
AN AIRCRAFT SOUNDING AT 1445Z INTO MCCARRAN IS AN EXTREMELY CLOSE
MATCH WITH THE NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDING FOR 15Z. LOOKING AT THE NAM12
TRENDS AS WELL AS THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE RAP AND HRRR...THE
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE
MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY TODAY TO BE ACROSS LINCOLN AND NORTHERN
MOHAVE. WE CAN STILL SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN
CLARK...NYE...ESMERALDA...AND THE SIERRA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE DRYING OUT. THE LATEST RAP...HRRR...AND 4KM NAM SHOW OUR
FORECAST AREA DRYING OUT QUITE RAPIDLY AS WE HEAD INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. SO WE MIGHT NOT HAVE MUCH ACTIVITY...EVEN IN LINCOLN
COUNTY...BY ABOUT 5 PM OR SO.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
408 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RECENT SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWED
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AT 10Z AND THE
SYSTEM WAS PROGRESSIVELY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. CONVECTION ALONG
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP
ACROSS LINCOLN...NORTHEAST CLARK AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS
MORNING WHILE DRIER SOUTHWEST SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF CLARK
COUNTY AND AREAS TO THE WEST SOUTH SHOULD SHUT DOWN THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL AND THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS REMOVED.
WE SHOULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INYO...ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES AS THESE ZONES WILL BE
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW. DRY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THIS WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A
RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AHEAD OF A DEEP EASTERN PACIFIC
TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
WILL COME INTO PLAY DURING THIS PERIOD THOUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ITS PROGRESSION AND DEPTH SO
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW. HOWEVER...IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE
WEEK AS THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS WILL
STIR UP BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA.
THE GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM MORE OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE ECMWF
CLOSES OFF AND SLOWS UP THE LOW SATURDAY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. IT
ALSO DEPICTS MORE QPF OVER EASTERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA THAN
THE GFS. POPS WERE RAISED FOR LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES SLIGHTLY
SATURDAY TO ADD SOME OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION INFLUENCE. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION IS SOMEWHAT LOW...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
MODERATE TO HIGH THAT THIS WILL USHER IN THE FEEL OF FALL WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT REGION
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY WILL BRING DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TO
THE TERMINAL AREA WITH GENERALLY SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND
10-12 KFT. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AROUND 8-10 KTS BEFORE BECOME SOUTHWEST THIS EARLY THIS
EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN AN ARC FROM THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL DECREASE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

UPDATE...PADDOCK
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

205 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK...THEN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
950 AM UPDATE...
MAIN COLD FRONT STILL WELL WEST OF OUR AREA, NEAR DETROIT. A
PREFRONTAL TROF OVER WESTERN NY AND PA IS TOUCHING OFF A SCT LINE
OF MAINLY SHOWERS FROM NEAR BRADFORD PA UP ACROSS THE EASTERN END
OF LAKE ONTARIO. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE PAST HOUR ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN REFLECTIVITY
VALUES. TOUCHED UP OUR FORECAST A BIT TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AN
HOUR OR SO EARLIER IN THE FINGER LAKES. THIS AREA OF PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS MAY ACTUALLY WEAKEN FARTHER EAST WITH THE STRONGER
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION STILL EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THESE EARLY SHOWERSE/CLOUDS IMPACT
SEVERE CHANCES LATER TODAY.

BASED ON MODIFIED KBUF 12Z SOUNDING, IF WE CAN GET SURFACE TEMPS
INTO THE MIDDLE 70S, MLCAPES AROUND 500 OR 600 J/KG MAY BE ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT WITH ANY STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT ITSELF. THE HIGHEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF OUR CWA (RIGHT ALONG I-81) AS THIS AREA WILL SEE
THE BEST TIMING FOR INSTABILITY. FARTHER EAST THE TIMING MAY BE
TOO LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE FROPA. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.

AT 230 AM...SFC ANYLS SHOWED HI PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
CST WITH A CDFNT DRAPED ACROSS THE CNTRL GTLAKES. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF IMPRSV S/WV`S UPSTREAM...ONE OVER LOWER
ONTARIO MOVG NEWD AND ANOTHER MOVG TWDS LAKE MI WHICH WILL APRCH
THE FCST AREA LATER TDA. INITIAL S/WV IS ASSCD WITH A BAND OF
-SHRA BUT XPCT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO PASS NW OF THE FCST
AREA...MAYBE BRUSHING WRN/NW ZONES EARLY THIS MRNG.

BEST 50A HGT FALLS WORK INTO THE FCST AREA 18-00Z AS MAIN TROF
AXIS APRCHS. NAM SHOWS CAPES GNRLY IN THE 500 J/KG RNG TDA WHILE
THE GFS IS MUCH MORE STABLE ACRS CNTRL NY. HOWEVER..THE GFS DOES
SHOW CAPES ARND 500 J/KG LATE TDA AT AVP WHERE LOW LVL THERMAL RDG
AXIS WILL BE LOCATED. NOT A CLEAR CUT SCENARIO TDA...SVR WX
CHECKLIST INDICATED POTNL FOR A FEW BKN LINES WITH ISOLATED
WIND/HAIL BUT NO SIG SVR. RUC SUGGESTS PRE-FNTL TROF WILL BE MOVG
ACRS THE RGN THIS AFTN. BELIEVE THE 00Z NAM12 IS OVERDONE WITH
IT`S DEPICTION OF CONVECTION LATE TDA ACRS CNTRL NY AND LEANED
MORE TWDS THE GFS/LCL WRF/RUC DEPICTION.

LATER TNGT AS FNT PULLS OUT...WRAP-ARND MSTR COMBINED WITH LAKE
INFLUENCES WILL BRING MORE -SHRA TO CNTRL NY.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL MON MRNG WITH SCT -SHRA ACRS CNTRL NY.
RIDGING ASSCD WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVER OH VLY SHUD ALLOW SOME
IMPRVMNT BY LATE MONDAY....SPCLY ACRS THE SRN TIER AND NE PA.

AFTER THIS TIME HI PRES IS XPCTD TO DOMINATE. A S/WV DROPPING SEWD
INTO QUEBEC ON TUE WILL ALLOW CANADIAN HIGH PRES TO BUILD
SWD INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING A "BACKDOOR" CDFNTL PSSG TUE NGT.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HEIGHTS
AROUND 588 DM OVER THE CWA. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO THE TN
VALLEY BUT ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER THIS MAY INITIATE WILL STAY WELL
SOUTH OF AREA. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BE IN THE VCNTY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MAX TEMPS MODIFYING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S BY
NEXT WEEKEND WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING PERIOD. A NARROW LINE OFF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. INCLUDED A TWO HOUR TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR SHOWERS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 21Z-23Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT NOT
MENTIONED IN TAFS DUE TO LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE. OVERNIGHT
BEHIND BOUNDARY ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 04Z-06Z. ON MONDAY, CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVEMENT TO LOW VFR POSSIBLE BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS SHIFTING TO
NORTHWEST AFTER FROPA AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN BECOMING GUSTY BY MID
MORNING MONDAY AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS IN
VALLEY FOG PRIMARILY KELM.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

1200 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

LATER TNGT AS FNT PULLS OUT...WRAP-ARND MSTR COMBINED WITH LAKE
INFLUENCES WILL BRING MORE -SHRA TO CNTRL NY.

AFTER THIS TIME HI PRES IS XPCTD TO DOMINATE. A S/WV DROPPING SEWD
INTO QUEBEC ON TUE WILL ALLOW CANADIAN HIGH PRES TO BUILD
SWD INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING A "BACKDOOR" CDFNTL PSSG TUE NGT.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HEIGHTS
AROUND 588 DM OVER THE CWA. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO THE TN
VALLEY BUT ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER THIS MAY INITIATE WILL STAY WELL
SOUTH OF AREA. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BE IN THE VCNTY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MAX TEMPS MODIFYING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S BY
NEXT WEEKEND WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TERMINALS FROM THE WEST TODAY.
RESTRICTIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AS SHRA/TSRA WORK THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z DEPENDING ON TERMINAL.
EXPECT SCTD-BKN VFR CIGS AHEAD OF FRONT WITH CIGS AROUND 5KFT.

FOLLOWING FROPA EXPECT MVFR STRATO-CU TO WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
END OF TAF VALID TIME.

WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 10KTS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO
20-25KTS THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 22Z AT NY TERMINALS EXPECTED WINDS TO VEER
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN THE WNW FOLLOWING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUE/WED/THU...VFR WITH EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS IN VALLEY FOG
PRIMARILY KELM.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...PVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

959 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

LATER TNGT AS FNT PULLS OUT...WRAP-ARND MSTR COMBINED WITH LAKE
INFLUENCES WILL BRING MORE -SHRA TO CNTRL NY.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL MON MRNG WITH SCT -SHRA ACRS CNTRL NY.
RIDGING ASSCD WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVER OH VLY SHUD ALLOW SOME
IMPRVMNT BY LATE MONDAY....SPCLY ACRS THE SRN TIER AND NE PA.

AFTER THIS TIME HI PRES IS XPCTD TO DOMINATE. A S/WV DROPPING SEWD
INTO QUEBEC ON TUE WILL ALLOW CANADIAN HIGH PRES TO BUILD
SWD INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING A "BACKDOOR" CDFNTL PSSG TUE NGT.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM.
UL TROF WL BE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST BY WED MRNG AND HIPRES AT
BOTH SFC AND ALOFT WL BE BUILDING IN. H5 RIDGE APPCHG 590 HEIGHTS
WL BE COMMON THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD. MED RANGE MODELS ALONG
WITH GFS ENSEMBLES HINTING AT A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGING ALOFT BUT
DISAGREE ON WHERE THIS CAN BE FOUND. THE 00Z EC INDICATES A
WEAKNESS OVR THE TN/OH VLYS WHILE THE GFS/CMC KEEPS IT SUPPRESSED
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

EITHER WAY IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO HV ANY IMPACT WHATSOEVER ON OUR
DRY STRETCH OF WX AS 1030MB SFC HIGH SITS OVR NERN U.S. 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES RUN ARND 565DM THROUGHOUT THE PD. WITH H5 HEIGHTS
RUNNING 1-2 SD ABV NRML THRU THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT TEMPS WL
RUN ABV NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS ARND 50.

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TERMINALS FROM THE WEST TODAY.
RESTRICTIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AS SHRA/TSRA WORK THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z DEPENDING ON TERMINAL.
EXPECT SCTD-BKN VFR CIGS AHEAD OF FRONT WITH CIGS AROUND 5KFT.

FOLLOWING FROPA EXPECT MVFR STRATO-CU TO WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
END OF TAF VALID TIME.

WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 10KTS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO
20-25KTS THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 22Z AT NY TERMINALS EXPECTED WINDS TO VEER
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN THE WNW FOLLOWING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUE/WED/THU...VFR WITH EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS IN VALLEY FOG
PRIMARILY KELM.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...PVN/RRM
AVIATION...PVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

630 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 230 AM...SFC ANYLS SHOWED HI PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST WITH A
CDFNT DRAPED ACROSS THE CNTRL GTLAKES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
COUPLE OF IMPRSV S/WV`S UPSTREAM...ONE OVER LOWER ONTARIO MOVG
NEWD AND ANOTHER MOVG TWDS LAKE MI WHICH WILL APRCH THE FCST AREA
LATER TDA. INITIAL S/WV IS ASSCD WITH A BAND OF -SHRA BUT XPCT
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO PASS NW OF THE FCST AREA...MAYBE BRUSHING
WRN/NW ZONES EARLY THIS MRNG.

LATER TNGT AS FNT PULLS OUT...WRAP-ARND MSTR COMBINED WITH LAKE
INFLUENCES WILL BRING MORE -SHRA TO CNTRL NY.

AFTER THIS TIME HI PRES IS XPCTD TO DOMINATE. A S/WV DROPPING SEWD
INTO QUEBEC ON TUE WILL ALLOW CANADIAN HIGH PRES TO BUILD
SWD INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING A "BACKDOOR" CDFNTL PSSG TUE NGT.

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TERMINALS FROM THE WEST TODAY.
RESTRICTIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AS SHRA/TSRA WORK THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z DEPENDING ON TERMINAL.
EXPECT SCTD-BKN VFR CIGS AHEAD OF FRONT WITH CIGS AROUND 5KFT.

FOLLOWING FROPA EXPECT MVFR STRATO-CU TO WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
END OF TAF VALID TIME.

WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 10KTS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO
20-25KTS THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 22Z AT NY TERMINALS EXPECTED WINDS TO VEER
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN THE WNW FOLLOWING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUE/WED/THU...VFR WITH EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS IN VALLEY FOG
PRIMARILY KELM.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...PVN/RRM
AVIATION...PVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

328 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

LATER TNGT AS FNT PULLS OUT...WRAP-ARND MSTR COMBINED WITH LAKE
INFLUENCES WILL BRING MORE -SHRA TO CNTRL NY.

AFTER THIS TIME HI PRES IS XPCTD TO DOMINATE. A S/WV DROPPING SEWD
INTO QUEBEC ON TUE WILL ALLOW CANADIAN HIGH PRES TO BUILD
SWD INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING A "BACKDOOR" CDFNTL PSSG TUE NGT.

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
MARINE LAYER HAS DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS MORNING AND IS WORKING NW
FROM NEW JERSEY BUT HAS STOPPED ITS PROGRESS JUST SHORT OF AVP.
HAVE REMOVED MVFR RESTRICTIONS FROM ALL NY TERMINALS THIS MORNING
WITH POTENTIAL REMAINING AT AVP, THUS HAVE TEMPO`D IN MVFR BETWEEN
06Z AND 09Z.

SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH AN OVC CIRRUS DECK TO START OFF
TAF PERIOD. AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT VFR TO
GIVE WAY TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 17Z AND
22Z. AS FROPA OCCURS STRATO CU IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND
FRONT WITH MVFR CIGS AFTER 03Z MONDAY.

WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH 5-10KTS THIS MORNING OCCASIONALLY GUSTING
TO 20-30KTS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 10-15KTS AND CONTINUE TO GUST.
AFTER 22Z AT NY TERMINALS EXPECTED WINDS TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST
FOLLOWING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AFTER 00Z AT AVP.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUE/WED/THU...VFR WITH EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS IN VALLEY FOG
PRIMARILY KELM.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...PVN/RRM
AVIATION...PVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

241 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AT 230 AM...SFC ANYLS SHOWED HI PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST WITH A
CDFNT DRAPED ACROSS THE CNTRL GTLAKES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
COUPLE OF IMPRSV S/WV`S UPSTREAM...ONE OVER LOWER ONTARIO MOVG
NEWD AND ANOTHER MOVG TWDS LAKE MI WHICH WILL APRCH THE FCST AREA
LATER TDA. INITIAL S/WV IS ASSCD WITH A BAND OF -SHRA BUT XPCT
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO PASS NW OF THE FCST AREA...MAYBE BRUSHING
WRN/NW ZONES EARLY THIS MRNG.

LATER TNGT AS FNT PULLS OUT...WRAP-ARND MSTR COMBINED WITH LAKE
INFLUENCES WILL BRING MORE -SHRA TO CNTRL NY.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

CLDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL MON MRNG WITH SCT -SHRA ACRS CNTRL NY.
RIDGING ASSCD WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVER OH VLY SHUD ALLOW SOME
IMPRVMNT BY LATE MONDAY....SPCLY ACRS THE SRN TIER AND NE PA.

AFTER THIS TIME HI PRES IS XPCTD TO DOMINATE. A S/WV DROPPING SEWD
INTO QUEBEC ON TUE WILL ALLOW CANADIAN HIGH PRES TO BUILD
SWD INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING A "BACKDOOR" CDFNTL PSSG TUE NGT.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGH PRES AT THE SFC. THESE FEATURES WILL GIVE
THE REGION AN INCREDIBLE STRETCH OF EARLY FALL WEATHER WITH
SEASONAL NIGHT TIME TEMPS AND MILD DAYS. MAX TEMPS LATE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
MARINE LAYER HAS DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS MORNING AND IS WORKING NW
FROM NEW JERSEY BUT HAS STOPPED ITS PROGRESS JUST SHORT OF AVP.
HAVE REMOVED MVFR RESTRICTIONS FROM ALL NY TERMINALS THIS MORNING
WITH POTENTIAL REMAINING AT AVP, THUS HAVE TEMPO`D IN MVFR BETWEEN
06Z AND 09Z.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUE/WED/THU...VFR WITH EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS IN VALLEY FOG
PRIMARILY KELM.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...PVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

638 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE.

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 630 AM SUN...LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NORTH OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING. AREAS OF RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH INTENSITY WINDING DOWN. NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT
OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND NOON. HRRR APPEARS TO BE TOO WET FOR THE
MORNING HOURS. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW CLOUDY
SKIES OVER EASTERN NROTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING...BUT AS LOW PRESSURE
AND UPPER ENERGY MOVES OUT OF AREA...WILL SEE SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY BY EARLY AFTERNOOON. PRECIPITABLE WATERS HAVE DECREASED...SO
ANY LINGERING RAIN THIS MORNING WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM SUN...FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST PUSHED BY A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THIS FRONT. WILL
HAVE INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS
BOUNDARY...AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS WEST OF THE FRONT...SO AM
EXPECTING PRE-FRONTAL CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY TONIGHT. FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...SUNRISE
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS MON AND MON NIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
EASTERN NC MONDAY MORNING...THEN PUSH OFFSHORE MON AFTERNOON. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS...BUT COVERAGE EXPANDING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS WITH
PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A COMBINATION OF
IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THE REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
OF THE UPPER JET...GREATER MOISTURE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75" ALONG
THE COAST...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
MOST MODELS ALSO INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST MON NIGHT WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE COAST. WITH THE
ABOVE CONSIDERATION HAVE INCREASED POPS MON AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW MON NIGHT INTO TUES AND
CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES
BRINGING COMFORTABLE FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH BEYOND
MON NIGHT WHICH LEADS TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR
MID TO LATE WEEK. THE ECMWF CUTS OFF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF DEEP
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. AS
A RESULT...THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER SHOWING PRECIP SURGING BACK INTO
THE REGION TUES NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EXTENDING
PERIOD WHILE THE GFS IS DRIER WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LIFTING INTO
THE REGION THURS INTO FRI...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.
WPC GENERALLY FAVORS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF MEAN AND GFS AND FOLLOWED
SUIT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS
MID/UPPER 70S WITH A FEW LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 634 AM SUN...IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER EASTRN NORTH
CAROLINA TAFS THIS MORNING WITH OW CEILINGS. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH DECREASING MOISTURE. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH AS THE
GRADIENT LOOSENS WITH THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY...AND WILL
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...BUT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...COULD SEE SOME TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT MONDAY. INLAND TAFS MAINLY
AFFECTED IN THE MORNING...THEN TRANSITIONING TO COASTAL SECTIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH TUES
AND EXPECT PRED VFR. MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON
EXTENT OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA WED AND THURS LEADING
TO BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...BUT COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IF THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION
VERIFIES. A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY
ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH MVFR AND PSBL IFR CONDITIONS.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 637 AM SUN...LOW PRESSURE IS OFF CAPE LOOKOUT AT SUNRISE THIS
MORNING WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE NORTHERN WATERS AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SPEEDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25
KNOTS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS WITH SEAS 6 TO 9 FEET. LOW
EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE WATERS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WIND
TURNING AROUND TO NORTHWESTERLY. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 20 TO 25 KNOTS
UNTIL THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN
THE RELAXING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW THE NORTHWEST AND WESTERLY FLOW TO
DROP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FEET IN
THE SOUTHERN WATERS...REMAIN 5 TO 6 FEET IN THE NORTHERN WATERS.
SPEEDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET WITH THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT....ALLOWING SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA CRITERIA IN
THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS EASTERN NC MONDAY...
PUSHING INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SW/W WINDS
AROUND 10-20 KT SHIFT TO NW/N AROUND 10-15 KT AFTER FROPA MON
AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING. N/NE WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15-25 KT
LATE MON NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM AS
STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH LINGERS OFFSHORE. LONGER RANGE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT ELEVATED SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
158.

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CGG/SK
MARINE...CGG/SK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

647 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...AS
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. BEHIND
THE FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR MONDAY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AMPLIFIED FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A LARGE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH REMAINS UPSTREAM...BUT WILL HAVE A ROLE
IN CONDITIONS TONIGHT (DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION OF THE
AFD). FOR NOW...THE AREA REMAINS IN A REGIME OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
(SURFACE) TO WESTERLY FLOW (ALOFT) AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...IN A
GENERALLY FAVORABLE AREA FOR ASCENT.

AT THE SURFACE..A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE OHIO VALLEY REMAINS
IN THE WARM SECTOR...IN AN AIR MASS THAT HAS YET TO BE WORKED
OVER...DESPITE DIURNAL SURFACE STABILIZATION. AN AREA OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY EXISTS AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION AXIS...AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ILN CWA SUGGEST AT LEAST 500
J/KG (MAYBE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG) OF INSTABILITY WHEN LIFTING A
PARCEL FROM AROUND 925MB. WITH AROUND 40 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION...THERE WAS SOME CONCERN OF A
POSSIBLE MARGINAL HAIL THREAT OVER INDIANA AND INTO WESTERN OHIO.
ULTIMATELY...WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL FORCING...THE CONVECTION HAS
REMAINED GENERALLY UNFOCUSED. RADAR TRENDS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS SUGGEST NOTHING MORE THAN A THREAT FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN...AND
PEA SIZE HAIL AT MOST. THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION WILL
MAKE ANY GUSTY WINDS VERY UNLIKELY.

THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY...BUT
RECENT HRRR RUNS SEEM TO TIME THE PRECIPITATION FAIRLY
WELL...ALLOWING IT TO EXIT THE EASTERN CWA BY 15Z. WITH A GRADUAL
DOWNWARD TREND EXPECTED IN STORM COVERAGE...POPS BEGIN AS HIGH AS
80 PERCENT IN THE NW CWA BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 40 PERCENT IN THE
SE. BASED ON THETA-E DEPICTIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT WILL NOT GET INTO THE CWA UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. REDEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE FRONT CURRENTLY APPEARS UNLIKELY FOR MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF
US-23.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE EVENTUAL POSITIONING
OF THE FRONT...AS WELL AS SKY COVER. BEHIND THE MORNING
CONVECTION...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. TO THE NORTH...ADDITIONAL CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP...AS A RESULT OF THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. BECAUSE OF THESE
FACTORS...A GRADIENT WAS USED IN THE MAX TEMP GRIDS. FORECAST
VALUES ARE AS HIGH AS 80 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHEAST...WITH
TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO 70 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY EVENING...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH THE
ILN CWA. HOWEVER...THE AXIS OF THE 500MB TROUGH WILL BE ROTATING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MODEL
RH IN THE LOW LEVELS TONIGHT...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT A
STRATOCUMULUS DECK WILL ENVELOP THE ILN CWA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
THE WRF-NMM / WRF-ARW MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH CMC/GFS
GUIDANCE IN ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE
BEEN MAINTAINED IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS...THOUGH THERE WAS SOME
CONSIDERATION TO INCREASE POPS (KEEPING QPF LIGHT) IN THE FAR
NORTH. THOUGH COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE NOTABLE...THE CLOUDS
MAY ACTUALLY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM PLUMMETING TOO FAR.

AFTER THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE (PERHAPS NOT ALL THAT QUICKLY) ON
MONDAY MORNING...A VERY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SET
UP FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A SPRAWLING AREA OF VERY DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GET CAUGHT UNDER A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...BETWEEN THE
QUICK UPPER FLOW IN CANADA AND THE VERY STAGNANT TROPICAL
CONDITIONS WELL TO THE SOUTH. THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO START OUT
RATHER COOL...WITH 850MB TEMPS OF BELOW 5 DEGREES CELSIUS ON
MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE TREND THROUGH THE WEEK SHOULD BE FOR
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH VERY SLOWLY
MOVES EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY...IT APPEARS THAT MONDAY NIGHT /
TUESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...MIN TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S...ABOUT 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. RECORD LOWS AT THE CLIMATE SITES ARE WELL
INTO THE 30S AND SHOULD BE EASILY SAFE...BUT OUTLYING LOCATIONS
MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

WITH NO CHANGE TO THE PATTERN HEADING INTO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD...WITH SLIGHT
INCREASES IN TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AND SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AS THE
AIRMASS SLOWLY MODIFIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH
DAY...FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S MID WEEK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 DEGREES BY THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS CMH. THE BAND IS MOVING TO
THE EAST AND WEAKENING. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE TERMINALS BY 12Z THUS WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE 12Z TAFS.
BEHIND THESE SHOWERS LEADING BACK TO THE FRONT WILL BE BAND OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE GENERATING CIGS BTWN FL015 AND FL025. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SW 10 TO 15 WITH A FEW GUST TO 20KT.

AFTER FROPA WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND GRADUALLY NW AT 15 TO
20KT WITH GUST 25 TO 30KT. MVFR CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA BY NOON LEAVING SCT SC BTWN
040-050. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPR LEVEL TROF
WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE AFTN AND PRODUCE CIGS BTWN
FL040 AND 050. THESE CLOUDS COULD PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES N OF
I-70 AND HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN THE FCST. AS THE UPR LVL TROF
MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR. DURING THE NIGHT WINDS WILL BE NW AND LOSE
THEIR GUSTINESS.

OUTLOOK...FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HAYDU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

324 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AMPLIFIED FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A LARGE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH REMAINS UPSTREAM...BUT WILL HAVE A ROLE
IN CONDITIONS TONIGHT (DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION OF THE
AFD). FOR NOW...THE AREA REMAINS IN A REGIME OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
(SURFACE) TO WESTERLY FLOW (ALOFT) AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...IN A
GENERALLY FAVORABLE AREA FOR ASCENT.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY EVENING...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH THE
ILN CWA. HOWEVER...THE AXIS OF THE 500MB TROUGH WILL BE ROTATING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MODEL
RH IN THE LOW LEVELS TONIGHT...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT A
STRATOCUMULUS DECK WILL ENVELOP THE ILN CWA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
THE WRF-NMM / WRF-ARW MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH CMC/GFS
GUIDANCE IN ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE
BEEN MAINTAINED IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS...THOUGH THERE WAS SOME
CONSIDERATION TO INCREASE POPS (KEEPING QPF LIGHT) IN THE FAR
NORTH. THOUGH COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE NOTABLE...THE CLOUDS
MAY ACTUALLY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM PLUMMETING TOO FAR.

WITH NO CHANGE TO THE PATTERN HEADING INTO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD...WITH SLIGHT
INCREASES IN TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AND SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THRU NORTHEAST
KANSAS. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOV RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND BE WELL SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA BY EVENING. RADAR SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHWEST OHIO
INTO EAST CENTRAL IL. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THEY MOVES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE THERMAL
ENVIRONMENT. HAVE UPDATED TAFS TO TAKE THUNDER OUT OF ALL
TERMINALS BUT KDAY AND THERE HAVE REDUCE FROM TEMPO TO VCTS.
EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. CLOUDS SHOULD DISSPATE RATHER QUICKLY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT
ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDS. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPR LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE AFTN
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT CIGS TO BE VFR BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000
FEET HOWEVER CIGS COULD LOWER TO MVFR DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
ALSO NORTH OF I-70 THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE WHICH WILL
NOT BE MENTION IN THE TAFS.

SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10 KTS AND THEN SHIFT WEST WITH
FROPA ON SUNDAY AND BECOME NW SUNDAY AFTN. WINDS WILL GUST AS
HIGH AS 27 KTS SUNDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HAYDU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

1137 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
AROUND 12Z ACROSS FAR NE OK AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FOR
SITES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY AID IN FOG POTENTIAL
ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR FOR PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CHANCES FOR
TSRA WILL BE HANDLED WITH VCTS ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR JUST AHEAD
OF FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF FOG AND
ISOLATED THUNDER...AND FOR THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE TAF AS
DRIER AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A BAND OF STORMS IS ONGOING OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH/WIND SHIFT. THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT LAGS BEHIND AND
IS NEAR THE NEBRASKA-KANSAS BORDER ATTM. THE LATEST LOCAL WRF AND
HRRR RUNS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST OK AND
POSSIBLY NORTHWEST AR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. IT IS UNCLEAR
WHETHER THIS WILL BE NEW DEVELOPMENT...OR A CONTINUATION OF WHAT
IS CURRENTLY GOING ON. THE HRRR SEEMS TO THINK THE FORMER RATHER
THAN THE LATTER. A THETA-E RIDGE AXIS LIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK
DOWN INTO NORTHEAST OK...SO EITHER SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE ONCE THE
FOCUSING BOUNDARY GETS DOWN HERE. REGARDLESS...WITH THE NAM/LOCAL
WRF/HRRR ALL SHOWING SOMETHING OVER NE OK LATER TONIGHT...I HAVE
RAISED POPS SOME IN THIS AREA. TEXT/WEB PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
AFTER 12Z. WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL AID IN FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR
OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS. LOW CHANCES
FOR TSRA WILL BE HANDLED WITH VCTS ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR JUST
AHEAD OF FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF
FOG AND ISOLATED THUNDER...AND FOR THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE
TAF ONCE THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS AT 3 PM SHOWED PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
ROUGHLY KSTJ-KLBL WITH ACTUAL COLD FRONT LAGGING FROM EXTREME NW
MISSOURI INTO SE COLORADO. FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP SOUTH THIS
EVENING AND WILL LIKELY BE APPROACHING OK/KS BORDER BY MIDNIGHT OR
EVEN LATER. GIVEN WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY...WEAK LAPSE
RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED CONVECTION
LATE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL TREND SOUTH DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY
DURING THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT
COMMENCES SOUTH OF I-40 IN THE AFTERNOON...AGAIN WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE AT BEST.

FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS LEADING TO STRETCH OF
PLEASANT TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. WEAK UPPER LOW PASSING TO OUR
NORTHWEST TUE/WED MAY INCH CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO FAR NORTHWEST AREAS. HOWEVER WITH THE SFC PATTERN
FEATURING A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM
NEW ENGLAND TO OK/AR...DRY AND STABLE REGIME WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...23

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

1214 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATER TODAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND PROVIDE GENERALLY
FAIR AND COOL WEATHER FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW STRATUS HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS PRACTICALLY ALL OF OUR SE ZONES
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE KMUI VCNTY. EXPECT A PLEASANTLY
WARM/MOSTLY SUNNY LATE SEPT AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID AND
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
IN THE 19-21Z PERIOD.

WEAKENING AREA OF SHOWERS WITHIN AN EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND LIKELY FIZZLE OUT AS THEY APPROACH THE SUSQ
VALLEY...WHERE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT
WAS PRESENT.

ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE...INCREASING UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AND POSITIVE LLVL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO ONE OR
TWO FAST-MOVING LINES OF SHOWERS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED.../FIRST/ AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS MOVES TO THE SUSQ VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF
SUNSHINE AND HIGHER PWAT AIR OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IN THE WAKE OF
THIS CLOUD AREA WILL BOOST SFC-BASED CAPES TO 1000-1500 J/KG
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WRN PARTS OF THE CWA...HELPING TO
STRENGTHEN A SECOND LINE OF CONVECTION INTO SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY...LOW-TOPPED TSRA.

THE LATEST...14Z HRRR FOCUSES THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION /AND
ASSOCIATED HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS/ ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS OF
PENN THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSRA ENTER THE
MID/LOWER SUSQ VALLEY 22-23Z AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE REAL COLD FRONT/DRY AIR SEEMS LIKE IT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH
IN THE AFTN WEST...LATE AFTN CENTRAL AND AROUND SUNSET OR JUST
AFTER IN THE EAST. THE BEST LIFT WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT - SO WILL
ALSO HOLD THE MENTION OF THUNDER INTO THE EVENING IN THE EAST.
TEMPS HAVE A CHANCE TO GET ABOVE 80F AGAIN IN THE SE - BUT EARLY
LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG COULD BUST THAT FORECAST. THE CLOUDS ARE
SHALLOW THOUGH...AND WINDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SSW...WHICH
IS A NORMALLY-DRYING INFLUENCE - ESP IN THE EASTERN CWA. SPC STILL
MENTIONS THE REGION IN SEE TEXT FOR DAY 1 OUTLOOK OF SEVERE WX.
PLUSES FOR ISOLD SVR GUSTS ARE THE WELL-ALIGNED WINDS AND GENERAL
INCREASE IN SPEED SHEAR THROUGH THE LOWEST 20KFT. KNOCKS AGAINST
SVR WILL BE THE OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND THE
LACK OF 50KT WINDS BELOW 15KFT. WILL STILL MENTION THE POSS OF
ISOLD SVR GUSTS IN THE HWO...BUT CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH FOR A MINIMAL OR EVEN NIL SVR THREAT TODAY.

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...THE WINDS OUT OF THE WNW WILL
LEAD TO A TYPICAL POST-FRONTAL SET-UP...AND THE RESIDUAL AND LAKE
MOISTURE ASCENDING THE MTNS AND COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WILL
GENERATE INSTABILITY AND SCT SHRA FOR THE NWRN THIRD OF THE AREA
TONIGHT AND PERHAPS THROUGH MID MORNING ON MONDAY. 8H TEMPS DO DIP
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY AND MAXES MAY BE LIMITED TO
THE M50S IN THE MTNS BUT STILL GET CLOSE TO 70F IN THE DOWNSLOPE-
WARMED SOUTHEASTERN PIEDMONT.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AS THE LONG TERM IS BEGINNING AND IT SORT
OF PARKS ITSELF OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WITH +2 TO +3 SIGMA
ABOVE NORMAL MSLP ANOMALIES BY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. THE MODELS SEEM
TO BE IN FAIR AGREEMENT SHOWING A BLOCKING 500 HPA ANTICYCLONE TO
THE NORTHWEST AS A MASSIVE 500 HPA POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OF +2
TO +3 SIGMA DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL CANADA BY THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY.

THE MODELS AND EFS DO WELL FORECASTING ANTICYCLONES SO THERE SEEMS
TO BE MORE OF A CONSENSUS. ON THE FAIR WEATHER FORECAST NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT DIURNAL VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO AFFECT
THE REGION EACH MORNING ONCE THE BIG HIGH TAKES HOLD....AND
CONTINUING DAILY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THAT MASSIVE HIGH SHOULD
CONTINUE THE DRY FAIR WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...HOWEVER
OUTSIDE OF MONDAY...TEMPERATURES THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THAT RESULTED IN IFR/LIFR ACROSS THE EASTERN
AIRFIELDS EARLIER THIS MORNING...WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND DISSOLVE
THROUGH 16Z.

CLOUDS DECK ASSOCIATED WITH FIRST LINE OR TWO OF SHOWERS WERE
MAINLY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY...BUT CAUSING SOME BRIEF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN THE NORTHWEST. THESE TRANSIENT... BUT ADVERSE
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AROUND
16Z...BEFORE REACHING THE SUSQ VALLEY IN A LIKELY WEAKENED STATE.
A SECOND AND PROBABLY STRONGER LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSRA ALONG THE
TRUE COLD FRONT WILL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS THROUGH 20Z
BEFORE REGION THE CENTRAL ZONES AFTER 21Z.

ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR WILL DEVELOP/PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND STAY INTACT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY PERHAPS
UNTIL DUSK.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ENCROACH ON THE REGION TODAY...LIKELY
REACHING KBFD AROUND 18Z...KUNV AROUND 21Z...AND THE SOUTHEAST
AIRFIELDS AROUND 00Z. PRIOR TO THE ACTUAL FRONT...A FEW PRE-
FRONTAL BAND/S/ OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSRA EXPECTED.

EXPECTING SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS TO POTENTIALLY LINGER IN THE
NORTHWEST SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IN GENERAL...AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO MID/LATE WEEK WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS.
TUE...AM FOG POSS W MTNS.
WED...AM FOG POSS...MAINLY NORTHERN PA.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...GRUMM/CERU
AVIATION...JUNG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MORRISTOWN TN

643 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA. ALSO...LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS INCREASED LIKELY-HOOD
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UPPED POPS TO
LIKELY AREA-WIDE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 87 60 75 52 / 60 30 10 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 85 58 72 49 / 60 30 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 85 57 72 48 / 70 30 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 83 55 70 43 / 60 40 10 0

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS FORT WORTH TX

1242 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BUT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.

LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WILL REACH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES
THIS EVENING AND WACO OVERNIGHT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE AT 7-12 KTS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL NOT
MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION OR CONVECTION IN THE TAFS AS CHANCES ARE
TOO LOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER AT THE TAF SITES
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT.

82/JLD

.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE HOURLY DEWPOINT AND PRECIPITATION GRIDS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

MID MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTED THAT A COLD FRONT EXTENDED
FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF KANSAS. A VERY DRY PROFILE WAS OBSERVED FROM THE 12Z
FWD RAOB AND SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT MIXING THIS AFTERNOON.
AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND TRENDED DEWPOINTS DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING OUR
SOUTHWESTERN ROW OF COUNTIES DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
CURRENT IMPLICATIONS ARE THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK
SOUTHWARD TODAY AND SHOULD ARRIVE ACROSS OUR RED RIVER COUNTIES
SOMETIME AROUND 7 PM. LATEST HRRR AND TTU-WRF MODEL OUTPUT DOES
SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A WINDOW FOR SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
ALONG THE RED RIVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THE DRY PROFILE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT SHOULD SERVE TO MITIGATE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND AS A
RESULT...TRIMMED POPS DOWN TO 20 PERCENT. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

THE REST OF THE PACKAGE LOOKED TO BE IN GREAT SHAPE AND NO
ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE MADE.

BAIN/TR.92

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH
HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...IN THE LOWER 90S. SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR ONE MORE VERY WARM AND HUMID
DAY. HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL RETROGRADE
SLOWLY WEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECTED INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WEST
AS WELL BY THIS EVENING WITH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTING
A FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY. LOW RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF I-20 THROUGH THIS EVENING...THOUGH
UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE LACKING. THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES SHOULD SEE
THE BEST CHANCES THROUGH SUNSET BEING THEY WILL BE ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RICHER MOISTURE. INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT MAY BRIEFLY ALLOW FOR A STRONG STORM EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE... WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL USHER IN DRIER
AIR WITH ANY CAA EXPECTED TO BE WEAK. LOW POPS WILL SHIFT TO CENTRAL
TEXAS MONDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS WEEK
WILL BE COOLER WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH WILL ALLOW A SLOW RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE
WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE
MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT WHERE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PROVIDE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOOK
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 55 AND 65 DEGREES TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL OPEN
UP AND LIFT OUT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL ACROSS THE PLAINS DUE TO A BLOCKING
OMEGA UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND.
AN AXIS OF MOISTURE WILL TAIL SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE AND ALLOW LOW DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES FOR THAT AREA BUT
WILL REMAIN TO FAR WEST FOR RAIN CHANCES AROUND OUR AREA. THE
BLOCKING UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL
LINGER INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. THE NEXT POSSIBLE CHANCE FOR RAIN MAY BE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS IS TYPICAL...THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SHOW DISAGREEMENT
ON SYSTEM TIMING AND ANY POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES.

05/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 93 69 87 64 84 / 5 20 5 0 5
WACO, TX 92 70 90 65 86 / 5 20 10 5 5
PARIS, TX 88 61 81 58 80 / 20 20 5 0 5
DENTON, TX 92 66 86 61 83 / 10 20 5 0 5
MCKINNEY, TX 92 66 86 59 83 / 10 20 5 0 5
DALLAS, TX 92 70 87 65 85 / 5 20 5 0 5
TERRELL, TX 94 68 87 60 84 / 5 20 5 0 5
CORSICANA, TX 93 71 89 62 86 / 5 20 10 0 5
TEMPLE, TX 92 70 91 66 85 / 5 10 20 5 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 91 68 86 63 84 / 5 20 5 5 5

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

82/92

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

1227 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
mainly VFR conditions are expected at the terminals the next 24
hours. There will be at least a scattered cu field across West
Central Texas this afternoon. Scattered low clouds may develop
Monday morning, but coverage to limited to mention at the
terminals. Isolated to scattered showers will continue this
afternoon mainly west of a Abilene to San Angelo to Sonora line.
Going to keep VCSH in the TAFS for KSJT and KSOA.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

MVFR stratus may temporarily affect areas along the I-10
corridor, including KSOA and KJCT this morning. MVFR stratus
possible elsewhere, but potential is limited due to extensive mid
level clouds. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
expected this afternoon. While IFR visibilities in heavy rain
possible in a tropical like airmass, left out of TAFS due to
brief nature.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

A moist, tropical airmass remains over West Central Texas, with
precipitable water of 1.5 to 2 inches. The highest values were
in Crockett county. The GFS and NAM models, along with the short
range Texas Tech WRF and HRRR models, indicate scattered shower
and thunderstorms development today, mainly along a west of a
Sonora, to San Angelo, to Sweetwater line. Locally heavy rainfall
is again possible, with the main threats being urban street
flooding and flooding of low water crossings. This will be similar
to the storms that were in the Concho Valley and Crockett county
Saturday afternoon. Will not issue a flash flood watch, as heavy
rainfall coverage will be localized, and as rainfall amounts
yesterday in the Concho Valley and Crockett county were not
extensive.

A weak cold front will move into the Big Country tonight and may
possibly reach a San Angelo to Brownwood line by daybreak. It`s
mainly a weak wind shift with surface high pressure building in
behind it. However, both the GFS and NAM have at least isolated
convection with it. Thus, have kept a slight chance of showers
going overnight over all areas, except southeast sections from
Junction, to Brady, to San Saba.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

The medium range models are in pretty decent agreement through the
next 5-7 days regarding the synoptic pattern. Shortwave ridging
is forecast over the southern Plains early Monday, but a compact
shortwave trough will be making its way east across the central
Rockies. This will flatten the shortwave ridge and spread modest
large-scale ascent over the High Plains on Monday afternoon. This
may be a bit too far north to have much affect in our neck of the
woods, but rain chances continue across the area despite the
dearth of synoptic forcing.

Despite drier air advecting into the CWA in the wake of the weak
cold front, precipitable water values will remain around 1.5"
across much of the area. The aforementioned cold front will stall
over the area, providing a forcing mechanism for diurnal
convection Monday afternoon. Coverage will be limited, but should
be sufficient to warrant a 20-30% chance of rain, with the best
chances being over the Concho Valley and I-10 corridor.

On Tuesday, the models move the central Rockies shortwave trough
into the Plains. As this trough merges with the northern stream,
it is sheared apart, developing a cut-off, mid-level cyclone over
the southern Plains. This feature will become trapped under the
ridge, meandering over the southern Plains for several days. The
quasi-stationary front is expected to wash out, and with southerly
winds returning, we`ll maintain a moist axis over the western
half of the CWA. With the 850-700 mb thermal ridge remaining to
the west and the cut-off low over the Plains, low PoPs were
included over the western 2/3 of the CWA both Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoon. Coverage is expected to remain generally
isolated and mainly during the afternoon hours.

The ridge is progged to build over the top of the cut-off low,
creating a blocking "high over low" pattern. The GFS, ECMWF, and
GEM all have a deep trough digging over the West Coast by the end
of the week, but this blocking pattern should keep this trough to
our west through the weekend. With that in mind, dry conditions
and prevailing southerly winds are forecast Thursday through
Saturday. We`ll have to keep our eye on the behavior of the cut-
off low. If it ends up farther south than projected, rain chances
may need to be included some time later in the week.

Expect seasonal temperatures with afternoon highs typically in the
mid 80s and overnight lows in the 60s.

Johnson

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 86 65 82 63 83 / 30 20 20 10 10
San Angelo 86 66 85 65 84 / 40 20 30 10 20
Junction 87 67 88 66 86 / 20 10 20 10 20

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS FORT WORTH TX

1127 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE HOURLY DEWPOINT AND PRECIPITATION GRIDS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE REST OF THE PACKAGE LOOKED TO BE IN GREAT SHAPE AND NO
ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE MADE.

BAIN/TR.92

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 722 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/
/12Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NONE...WIND SHIFT BUT DFW/DAL ALREADY IN NORTH FLOW.

WITH A SURFACE RIDGE DRAPED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...
PREDAWN WINDS ARE CALM. THIS WEAK RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST THIS
MORNING...AND LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ENSUE AROUND MIDDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AROUND SUNSET...BUT WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS ALREADY IN PLACE...ITS PASSAGE WILL BE NEARLY
INDISTINGUISHABLE TO THE AVIATION COMMUNITY...MARKED ONLY BY
GRADUAL BACKING WINDS WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASING SPEEDS.

05/

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

630 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

Expect seasonal temperatures with afternoon highs typically in the
mid 80s and overnight lows in the 60s.

Johnson

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 86 65 82 63 83 / 30 20 20 10 10
San Angelo 86 66 85 65 84 / 40 20 30 10 20
Junction 87 67 88 66 86 / 20 10 20 10 20

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

350 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

Expect seasonal temperatures with afternoon highs typically in the
mid 80s and overnight lows in the 60s.

Johnson

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 86 65 82 63 83 / 30 20 20 10 10
San Angelo 86 66 85 65 84 / 40 20 30 10 20
Junction 87 67 88 66 86 / 20 10 20 10 20

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

04/25

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1225 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MAIN CONCERNS ARE RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD TRENDS TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT

CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...STRONG RIDGING OVER
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA...AND A POTENT UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. IT WAS THIS UPPER TROUGH...
WHICH MOVED IN A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...THAT
BROUGHT THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH LAST EVENING. THE
FASTER ARRIVAL TIME ALLOWED FOR A BETTER JUXTAPOSITION WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...RESULTING IN THE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IN SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WITHIN THE UPPER
TROUGH...AS SEEN ON THE 00Z ABR AND MPX SOUNDINGS...HAS LED TO
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SOUTHWEST OF I-94. NORTH OF I-94 THROUGH NORTHERN
MN AND NORTHERN WI...EXTENSIVE CLOUDS ALONG WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS
EXISTS. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS IS A REFLECTION OF MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS TAKING PLACE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE POTENT UPPER
TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...THE SHOWERS RESIDE ALONG A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT. REGARDING COLD AIR...RAP SHOWS 925MB TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
ALREADY TO 11-14C...DOWN FROM 18-20C AT 00Z. A BRISK 30-45KT WIND AT
925MB HAS HELPED TO ADVECT THIS COLD AIR INTO THE REGION.

THE POTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER OUR REGION IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE
MARCHING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT A FAST CLIP...DIGGING DOWN INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY 00Z MONDAY AND APPALACHIA BY 12Z MONDAY. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...IT HELPS PULL THE MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS BAND OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. HOWEVER...MAJORITY OF
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND OF SHOWERS FALLS APART
THROUGH THE MORNING AS IT DROPS SOUTH. THUS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 20-40 RANGE. CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY BREAK UP
THROUGH THE DAY...DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION AND ASSISTANCE FROM DAYTIME HEATING. ANY CELLULAR CLOUDS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON WILL THEN DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING. A MUCH COOLER DAY IS ON TAP WITH 925MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
HOLD STEADY BETWEEN 8-10C BETWEEN 12-18Z...A BREEZY NORTH WIND AND
CLOUDS. HIGHS IN THE 60S SEEM REASONABLE...THOUGH SOME CENTRAL WI
LOCATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 60.

THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO BUILD FULLY OVER THE REGION BY 12Z
MONDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DECOUPLE...AND GIVEN TODAYS
GRADUALLY CLEARING OF CLOUDS AND RECENT PRECIPITATION SHOULD LEAD TO
A DECENT SETUP FOR VALLEY FOG. TRIBUTARIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE...AND EVEN THE MAIN MS CHANNEL MAY ENTIRELY FOG UP TOO.
THE ONLY THING THAT COULD DISRUPT THE MS CHANNEL FROM FOGGING UP IS
IF THERE ARE SOME SCATTERED LINGERING CLOUDS FROM TODAY. A COOL
NIGHT IS LIKELY AS WELL...WITH SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS LIKELY
FALLING INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S. NO FROST ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME...SINCE THESE SITES SHOULD SEE FOG INSTEAD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

A SERIES OF STRONG TROUGHS MARCHING ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE UPPER RIDGE THATS OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDER
THIS UPPER RIDGE...COMBINED WITH LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
0.5-0.7 INCHES AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...WILL YIELD DRY
CONDITIONS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THIS SUN SHOULD HELP MODIFY THE
COOL AIRMASS THAT CAME INTO THE AREA TODAY...REFLECTED BY MODEL
925MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO 12-14C ON MONDAY AND AROUND 14C FOR TUESDAY.
THE SETUP CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE FOR VALLEY FOG AT NIGHT...AND IN
FACT SOUNDINGS DEPICT A VERY DEEP LIGHT WIND FIELD FOR 12Z TUESDAY.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOSE SAME EAST PACIFIC
TROUGHS WILL HELP EJECT THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND
LIFT IT INTO OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO SHEAR OUT
AS IT RUNS INTO THE BUILT UP RIDGING AHEAD OF IT. INCREASING
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE SHEARING OUT UPPER LOW...REFLECTED BY
PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBING TO 1-1.5 INCHES WEST OF I-35 AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY...AND DPVA SHOULD HELP TO INDUCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...21.00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND DRIER. IN FACT...THERE
ARE INDICATIONS NOW THAT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT DOES FORM TO OUR
WEST TUESDAY NIGHT MAY NOT EVEN HOLD TOGETHER BEFORE MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DESPITE
THOSE HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE THEREFORE CUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES MORE. ALSO REMOVED
THUNDER MENTION AS ANY INSTABILITY...EVEN IN THE WETTER 21.00Z
ECMWF RUN...STAYS ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH LESS PRECIPITATION
FORECAST...925MB TEMPS DONT COOL AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED...RESULTING IN WARMER HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN A VERY
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST PACIFIC AT 12Z WEDNESDAY MOVING ONSHORE BY
SATURDAY. A LITTLE BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS BEYOND THEN WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH...OR IF IT CUTS OFF. THE DOWNSTREAM
RESPONSE IS TO CONTINUE TO HOLD AND EVEN AMPLIFY RIDGING ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING
590 DAM OVER OUR AREA. A FUN LITTLE TIDBIT...LOOKING AT THE CIPS
ANALOG PAGE...TO FIND A SIMILAR 500MB PROG ONE HAS TO GO BACK TO
EARLY OCT 2010. IN ANY EVENT...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGING COMBINED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. EXPECT
AIRMASS MODIFICATION TO GRADUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...WITH
READINGS LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE WARMEST AIR
STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS...WHERE STRONGER RETURN FLOW EXISTS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATING
THE N-S RIDGE AXIS WILL HANG UP JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
BUKIT MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER CHANNEL DECOUPLING WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING
CLOUD COVER TODAY WITH CLEARING THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN RELATIVELY
MOIST LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER FROM RECENT RAINFALL...ALONG WITH LACK OF
GOOD MIXING WITH DECOUPLING WINDS...IS PRODUCING INCREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR SOME FOG FORMATION IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER CHANNEL
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THINKING NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5-
10KT AT BLUFFTOP MAY HELP TO STIR FOG MORE INTO A STRATUS LAYER.
HOWEVER...NOT CONFIDENT THAT THIS FOG/STRATUS WILL SET UP DIRECTLY
OVER THE KLSE AIRPORT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD P6SM BCFG/SCT002
MENTION FROM 09-12Z...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED
SIGNALS. PLAN ON STAYING WITH THIS WITH 18Z ISSUANCE AND HAVE THE
EVENING SHIFT FORECASTER MONITOR CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. THINKING KRST WILL STAY VFR GIVEN MORE STIRRING/DRYING
WITH WEAK WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

700 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MAIN CONCERNS ARE RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD TRENDS TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AS IT MOVES SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIGHT ENOUGH
THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH REDUCTION OF VISIBILITIES FROM THEM.
CEILINGS WILL BE MVFR AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH 21.18Z...AND THEN
THESE CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO
25 KNOTS THIS MORNING...AND UP TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

WHILE THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW LIGHT WINDS IN
THE LOWEST HALF KILOMETER...THEY ALSO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR
IN THIS LAYER TOO. HOWEVER WITH COOLER AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY
WARM MISSISSIPPI RIVER CHANNEL...COULD NOT RULE OUT PATCHY TO
AREAS OF VALLEY FOG. WITH COVERAGE A QUESTION...JUST WENT WITH
BCFG FOR NOW.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BOYNE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

203 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MAIN CONCERNS ARE RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD TRENDS TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

CLEAR SLOT BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION HAS SETTLED IN OVER BOTH
TAF SITES. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT THOUGH AS
CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARE
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
WITH THE TRAJECTORY THAT THE CLOUDS ARE MOVING...EXPECT TO SEE
THEM ARRIVE IN KLSE FIRST BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AND THEN IN KRST
AROUND 12Z. SHOULD BE MVFR CEILINGS FOR BOTH SITES WITH THESE
CLOUDS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE 21.01Z AND 21.00Z NAM BOTH
SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN SO WILL STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST. AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE CLOUDS
WILL GET PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH MIXING AGAIN SUNDAY FOR SOME
GUSTY NORTH WINDS UNTIL THE INVERSION DEVELOPS AND CUTS OFF THE
MIXING.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...04

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

330 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESURE AREA
LIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...WITH ARM OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE EXTENDING TO ITS N AND E
ADVECTING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED AT
KCAG EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...AND KCYS/KGJX 88D RETURNS SUGGEST
THIS MOISTURE HAS MADE IT INTO THE SIERRA MADRES AND ADJACENT WRN
FOOTHILL LOCATIONS. 20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1026MB ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA WITH RETURN FLOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND A
WELL DEFINED SFC TROF BANKED UP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SNOWY
RANGE. LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS SFC TROF HAS COMBINED WITH 250+
J/KG OF SBCAPE AS ANALYZED FROM SPC MESOANALYSIS TO SPARK A COUPLE
OF POCKETS OF DEEPER CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF CENTENNIAL/
WOODS LANDING/ALBANY OVR THE PAST FEW HOURS. LOW CENTER WILL REACH
IDAHO BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH ARM OF MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUING
FROM SW TO NE INTO THE CWFA. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SHOULD SEE THESE LOWER AND THICKEN
OVERNIGHT. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT...SO WILL SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS WELL. HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME FOG TO
THE SRN LARAMIE RANGE PER LATEST HRRR OUTPUT. LIGHTNING WAS EVIDENT
ACROSS SW COLORADO LAST NIGHT...SO IT MAKES SENSE TO KEEP IT
TONIGHT UP HERE TONIGHT. 12Z MODEL OUTPUT HAS TRENDED SLOWER IN
SPREADING RAIN CHANCES OUT ONTO THE ERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL LIKELY
NOW HOLD OFF NOW UNTIL SOMETIME MONDAY MORNING.

UPPER LOW WOBBLES THRU THE COWBOY STATE ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL
EFFECTIVELY SHARPEN AND ENHANCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE
PREFRONTAL SFC TROF/PACIFIC FRONT. BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON
MONDAY WILL BE TIED CLOSELY TO THE LOCATION OF THIS TROF...WHICH
WILL BE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IN THE MORNING BEFORE PUSHING
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE MONDAY. PROGD INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
LOOK FAIRLY MEAGER...WITH SBCAPES TOPPING OUT AROUND 500 J/KG.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER WAVE COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION...WOULD EXPECT PERHAPS SOME MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE SOME FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY
NIGHT.

UPPER-LOW WILL DEPART DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST. OTHERWISE...
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY TURN A BIT BREEZY AND WINDS TURN WEST BEHIND
THE DEPARTING PREFRONTAL SFC TROF/PACIFIC FRONT. WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 35 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY WILL BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS CLOUD COVER PROHIBITS THE AMOUNT OF
INSOLATION. EVEN SO...EXECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S/LOW 80S.
HIGHS WILL WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO ON TUESDAY...YIELDING MID
70S TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON WED AND THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO RISE TO
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
ON WED WITH WEAK SFC GRADIENTS AND FLOW ALOFT. NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR
THURS EXCEPT THAT SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY DURING
THE AFTN ACROSS THE PLAINS DUE TO PRESSURE FALLS OVER MONTANA. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DIFFERENCES AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THE GFS IS YET AGAIN THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
WESTERN UPPER TROUGH...MOVING ITS AXIS TO NEAR UTAH BY SAT.
WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS PROGGED BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SAT NIGHT...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SNOW OVER THE MTNS. THE ECMWF
SHOWS A CUTOFF OVER CALIFORNIA ON SAT WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY
DELAY A COOLDOWN AND IS A MUCH DRIER SOLN. WITH SUCH BIG
DIFFERENCES ALMOST A WEEK OUT DECIDED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ON
SAT BUT KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SAT NIGHT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE
STREAMS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER AROUND 00Z WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...ESPECIALLY AT RWL. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS EXCEPT AT LAR WHERE A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MINIMAL THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RELATIVELY GOOD CHANCES
OF WETTING RAINS TO THE DISTRICTS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
DO NOT ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS...HOWEVER A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH WILL BE A POSSIBILITY IN THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS/STORMS. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUE-FRI.
EVEN SO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE STILL ONLY EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT NEAR 20 PERCENT.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TALLAHASSEE FL

305 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
As mentioned in the aviation discussion below, a large area of low
clouds (which was very well progged by the HRRR Hi-Res guidance) is
currently developing and moving SW across the CWA. These low
ceilings are expected to prove quite difficult to lift and break out
later this morning and early afternoon, especially further off to
the north and east. Eventually, skies should become partly sunny
across the entire region for the mid to late afternoon hours, but
the combination of these clouds, the cooler air behind the cold
frontal passage, and the fairly gusty NE winds will all serve to
create a truly fall like day over the area. High temps will be
several degrees below normal for a change, with afternoon maximums
only 80 to 85 degrees today. Also, with the cold frontal boundary
now stalled to our south and east, the best chances for showers and
isolated thunderstorms will be over the coastal waters and the SE FL
Big Bend. PoPs over the interior will be 10% or less for almost 3/4
of the region today, but over the eastern 1/4 they will range from
20% to the east of Tallahassee and extending NE into south central
GA, with the 30-40% PoPs generally confined to the SE Big Bend. Even
here, rainfall amounts should be on the light side.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
A weak cut off low aloft with a decaying vorticity anomaly will keep
the cold front stationary across our forecast area tonight. The
highest chances for thunderstorms tonight will be over the water,
with slight chances (20-30%) for thunderstorms Wednesday through
Thursday over the Gulf waters and in the eastern Florida Big Bend.
Lows tonight and Wednesday night will be cool behind the front, from
around 60 in our northernmost counties to mid to upper 60s along the
immediate coastline. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s.

.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
The beginning of the extended period will feature a relatively
weak flow pattern aloft across the deep south, with the area
situated between ridges over the Rockies and western Atlantic.
At the surface, northeasterly flow will continue with high
pressure parked over New England and a trough of low pressure
along the eastern seaboard. The northeasterly flow should keep
most of the deeper moisture and showers confined to northeast
Florida. However, isolated activity may reach the far eastern Big
Bend from time to time.

Deeper moisture is forecast to return over the weekend as a trough
deepens over the central states. This should lead to increased
rain chances across the forecast area for Saturday into Monday.

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Wednesday] With a large area of wrap around low
cloudiness developing to our NE and moving to the SW, went a bit
more pessimistic on the Tafs for the overnight hours this package.
Expect conditions to deteriorate from NE to SW, with prevailing MVFR
Cigs expected at all of the terminals along with a period of IFR
level Cigs at ABY and VLD. Furthermore, these low ceilings will be
tough to lift and break out this morning, with the MVFR conditions
possibly lingering into the early afternoon hours at ABY and VLD.
However, the best chances for rain will be across far eastern
portions of the CWA today, but with PoPs only 20% at VLD and lower
elsewhere, no mention of them in the Tafs is needed at this time.
Finally, gusty NE winds can be expected at all of the terminals from
the late morning hours to around sunset this evening.

.Marine...
East-northeast winds will rise to advisory levels tonight over much
of our coastal waters and will likely remain elevated until
Thursday. After Thursday, cautionary winds will likely remain in
place over the coastal waters into the early weekend. Seas will peak
Wednesday around 5 to 6 feet over the offshore waters.

.Fire Weather...
Moisture levels will remain fairly high over the next several days
which will keep afternoon relative humidities well away from any
fire weather concerns.

.Hydrology...
Rainfall totals through the week are expected to be around 0.75-1"
in the eastern Big Bend, 0.75" or less over the rest of the area.
These totals will not cause our rivers to rise into flood stage.

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee 84 66 84 66 85 / 10 10 10 10 20
Panama City 84 68 85 69 84 / 10 10 10 10 10
Dothan 81 60 83 63 83 / 10 10 10 10 10
Albany 81 61 83 63 84 / 10 10 10 10 10
Valdosta 83 63 83 64 84 / 30 10 10 10 20
Cross City 83 67 86 67 86 / 40 20 30 20 40
Apalachicola 84 69 84 70 84 / 10 10 10 20 20

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT
Wednesday for Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to
Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from
Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee
River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...MOORE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

405 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

PAST MORNING UPPER AIR DATA ALONG WITH RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY EAST OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS. A COMPACT 50-60 KT JET STREAK ON THE BASE OF THIS
SYSTEM IS SEEN EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OF COLORADO INTO
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH A STRONGLY DIFLUENT PATTERN RESULTING
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WAVE IS RIDING UNDER A MODEST
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH A RESULTANT REX BLOCK PATTERN DOMINATING THE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY. CLOSE TO THE GROUND, THE LEE TROUGH IS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS WITH MODEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING BACK INTO THE AREA VIA DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. A LARGE MCS THAT FORMED FROM CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN COLORADO LAST EVENING...CONTINUES TO SLIDE SLOWLY EAST
FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

INITIALLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS TODAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED MCS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY OVER LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.
HOWEVER, RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR THAT INDICATE THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
SLIDE EAST OF HIGHWAY 183/281 BY MID MORNING. THIS WILL PERMIT CLOUDS
TO ERODE QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY PREVAILING
BY NOON.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TOWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING AS THE
CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LEE TROUGH TO FURTHER INTENSITY AS IT
STALLS OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS WITH DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
SPREADING BACK NORTH KANSAS. STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION WITH
RESULTANT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN COMBINATION WITH
THE DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BRING MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500 J/KG ALONG WITH LITTLE INHIBITION BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL THEN SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE TROUGH BY EARLY EVENING OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS VIA EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. NONETHELESS,
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER TO HALF
DOLLAR SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD GROW
UPSCALE INTO AN MCS BY MID EVENING AND THEN SLIP EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS BY MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION WILL PASS WELL TO NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT AND
LINGER OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MEANWHILE, A
MUCH DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST
BY SATURDAY. WITH A WEAK 500MB COLD POOL IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS, ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SURFACE BASED CAPE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
PROFILE WILL WEAKEN EVEN FURTHER WITH TIME SO THAT SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED. GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTIONS,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S. THE LOWER LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO DRY OUT BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, RESULTING IN
NEGLIGIBLE SURFACE BASED CAPE AND HENCE, NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE WEST
COAST SYSTEM SLOWLY PROGRESSES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESIDING OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
AND MAY START TO TAP INTO RICHER GULF MOISTURE. HOWEVER, CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL OCCUR WELL EAST/SOUTHEAST OF WESTERN
KANSAS. SOME PRECIPITATION CAN`T BE RULED OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
APPROACHES THE PLAINS. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND
ON MOISTURE AVAILABILITY; AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE RICHER
MOISTURE MAY GET SHUNTED INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF COAST BY THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S, WITH SOME UPPER 70S POSSIBLE BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

A SLOW MOVING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS THIS EARLY MORNING...WILL IMPACT THE HYS TERMINAL DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO STAY IN THE
MVFR RANGE OR HIGHER...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY DROP VISIBILITY VALUES
INTO AN IFR RANGE FOR BRIEF PERIODS. OTHERWISE...THIS LINE OF
STORMS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF BOTH THE DDC AND GCK TERMINALS
THROUGH TONIGHT. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TOWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON
TO EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL KANSAS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY POTENTIALLY BE STRONG
TO SEVERE WITH HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE THE MAIN HAZARD.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 85 61 86 60 / 20 60 20 20
GCK 87 61 87 60 / 30 60 20 20
EHA 86 60 87 60 / 20 40 30 30
LBL 87 61 87 61 / 20 40 30 30
HYS 80 59 82 59 / 30 60 20 10
P28 81 60 83 60 / 20 50 30 20

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...AJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...AJOHNSON
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...AJOHNSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1113 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

ANOTHER UPDATE TO POP/WX TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT COVERAGE. SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY TURN TOWARDS
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR...SO MOVED HIGHER POPS ACCORDINGLY. TIMING
OF PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL SEEMS REASONABLE...SO BLENDED INTO
FORECAST AT 09Z.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 723 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WERE KEPT DRY UNTIL THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT
AT SHRA/TSRA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

MODERATE SHOWERS AT KMCK AND THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD. SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONGER AT KMCK. STRATUS AND FOG WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DECREASING
WINDS/CLEARING SKIES ALONG KS/CO STATE LINE. THIS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT KGLD WITH AT LEAST TEMPO IFR CIG/VIS AROUND 12Z. EXPECTING
BETTER LOW LEVEL MIXING (SURFACE-BL WINDS) TO LIMIT FOG/STRATUS
AT KMCK. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THOUGH IN THE EVENT WINDS GO CALM.
AFTER MID MORNING VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...DR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1038 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

UPDATE ISSUED AT 723 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WERE KEPT DRY UNTIL THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT
AT SHRA/TSRA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 516 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...DR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

120 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON TEMPS WITH DRY
HI PRES EXPECTED TO DOMINATE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD
AS DRY HIGH PRES DOMINATES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

327 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THAT THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION IS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE IN THE SOUTH THE WESTERN
EDGE IS STILL TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MODELS ARE ALL SIMILAR IN BRINGING THE MAIN WAVE THROUGH TODAY THEN
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IS HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION THERE WILL BE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HRRR AND
THE 4KM WRF BOTH MOVE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS MORNING AND HAVE
VERY LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NAM ALSO
MOVES IT THROUGH BUT HAS A LITTLE PRECIPITATION WITH THE SECONDARY
WAVE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS HAS MORE PRECIPITATION
ALL THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION ALREADY SHOWING UP...EXPECT
THAT THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE
DAY BUT EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FURTHER WEST.
EXPECT THAT THESE WILL GET INTO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABLILIZE THE AREA. FORECAST
MUCAPE OF UP TO 1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GET A
STRONG STORM GOING IN THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING
TO LIFT NORTH EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EXPECTED TO EXTEND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO END DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW EXITS THE REGION...AND
FOR GENERALLY DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
LATE IN THE EXTENDED...EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO CUT OFF ACROSS
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...EVENTUALLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. WHILE INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY MINIMAL...EXPECT AT
LEAST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN SUNDAY
EVENING...AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE WAY THE EXTENDED MODELS HANDLE THIS
CUTOFF LOW...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE NO ISSUE JUSTIFYING THE
SMALL CHANCE POPS THE BLENDED FORECAST PRODUCED THIS MORNING.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...EXPECT SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...AVERAGING GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
FALL. IN ADDITION...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND WITH NO APPRECIABLE DISTURBANCES FORECAST TO CROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...BEFORE EVENTUALLY INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
WEST COAST LOW ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THAT SAID...OTHER THAN THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHICH AT
THIS POINT APPEAR TO BE NON SEVERE...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
WEATHER TO SPEAK OF FOR THE TIME BEING.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED MOVING INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT THEM TO CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. BY LATER IN THE MORNING THERE SHOULD BE A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...JCB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

345 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
BRING VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES RIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT TUESDAY...MEAN 500-300MB TROUGH AXIS BISECTS THE NORTH
COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 06Z RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING
UPSTREAM 80-90KT JET ACROSS SERN ONTARIO. THE UPSTREAM JET IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL VORT AND AREA OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS
ONTARIO...WHICH WILL MOVE IN ACROSS NRN NY LATER THIS MORNING PER
PROGGED RUC/NAM RH TRENDS. ALSO DEALING WITH LINGERING STRATUS
LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT WITH CEILINGS AROUND 5 KFT EARLY THIS
AM. ON BALANCE ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...WITH SOME
SUNNY BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT. MAY
SEE A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES FROM THE STRATUS LAYER...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY...BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. DESPITE LIMITED
SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-MID 60S
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHERE
TEMPERATURES HOVERED MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN SW-W AT 5-10 MPH.

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT TUESDAY...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND FINAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DEPARTS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS WILL BEGIN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR...BUT WILL SEE NOCTURNAL
FOG EACH NIGHT IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS. ALSO...MAY SEE SOME
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CUT- OFF UPPER LOW WHICH IS NOW PROGGED BY 00Z GFS/NAM TO MOVE FROM
THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST A BIT FURTHER UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S ON
WEDNESDAY AND LOW-MID 70S FOR THURSDAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLY A BIT
COOLER IN S-CENTRAL VT DEPENDING ON POTENTIAL CLOUDINESS. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS CENTER OF SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS
EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
30S TO MID 40S TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AS
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC RIDGE PREVAILS ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. ALL
MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECTING A
LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS...GIVEN THE DEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE
ACRS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BTWN 13-15C ON SAT/SUNDAY...WHICH SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE
70S...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE
BUMPED TEMPS 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE SUPER-BLEND VALUES. LOWS WL
RANGE IN THE 40S COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO MID 50S CPV/SLV...WITH
LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF HINT AT A BACK DOOR FRNT APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN CWA.
THIS FEATURE WL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE...WITH STRONGEST LLVL CAA
OCCURRING ACRS NORTHERN MAINE...WHERE BEST HGHT FALLS HAPPEN
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF. WL MENTION SCHC/LOW
CHC WORDING IN THE GRIDS ACRS OUR NORTHERN CWA...BUT QPF AMOUNTS
WL BE LIGHT. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN 9-11C...SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE U60S NORTHERN MTNS TO MID 70S.

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL CONT AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU 06Z WEDS. SFC HIGH PRES IS LOCATED ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLW ACRS OUR TAF SITES. THIS COMBINED
WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY...HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS ACRS MANY OF OUR TAF SITES. PER LATEST SOUNDING DATA
EXPECT A BROKEN CLOUD DECK TODAY AT 4000 TO 6000 FEET WITH WEST
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SW TO NE ALIGNED
SLV...IMPACTING MSS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WL CLR THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS DEVELOPING AFT 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SFC HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN CLR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDS
INTO THURS...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT
MPV/SLK ON THURS MORNING. SOME CLOUDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF OUR TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT WINDS

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

332 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. MAIN
ACTION TAKEN ON THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS WAS TO WIDEN THE DIURNAL
SWINGS...BUMPING UP DAYTIME TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AND LOWERING
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S SATURDAY & SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MAX
TEMP ESPECIALLY LOW NEXT MONDAY WHEN IT TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
TOO MUCH. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LOWER
HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE HAD UPPER 60S WHILE
850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT LOWER 70S. LIKEWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO
BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY RH WILL LET
TEMPS RADIATE COOLER. NO POPS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...TABER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

401 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

AS OF 4 AM SHOWERS STILL MAINLY CONFINED TO AROUND THE MISSOURI
RIVER...WITH DRY AIR TO THE NORTHEAST SLOWING ITS MOVEMENT. FORCING
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS MOVES EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET STILL SUPPORTS A PERIOD OF DEEP
LIFT OVER THE AREA...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DID SLOW DOWN TIMING
OF THE NORTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THESE SHOWERS GIVEN CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...WITH THE HRRR SEEMING CLOSEST TO REALITY. GREATEST COVERAGE
AND HIGHEST INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90 CLOSER TO THE BETTER LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BUT STILL EXPECT
SHOWERS TO EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE WHOLE AREA. THE SHOWER THREAT
WILL DECREASE AS THE FORCING PUSHES EAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT MOVE IN. THUS BY MID AFTERNOON BEST
SHOWER THREAT WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 29...BUT WOULD EXPECT THESE
TO BE EVEN LIGHTER GIVEN THE DRYER AMBIENT AIRMASS.

NOT REALLY ANY INSTABILITY OUT THERE...AS VERIFIED BY THE LACK OF
LIGHTNING IN THE CURRENT ACTIVITY. NOT MUCH CHANGES WITH THE SYSTEM
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SO NOT LIKING THUNDER CHANCES AND REMOVED
FROM THE FORECAST. ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY SEEMS TO DEVELOP BEHIND
THE BEST FORCING IN A SUBSIDENT AND CAPPED REGIME. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD STICK AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY...AND THUS TRENDED HIGHS DOWN
TOWARDS THE COOLER RAW GUIDANCE VALUES. WILL BE QUITE BREEZY AS WELL
WITH A 900MB JET AROUND 40 KTS MOVING OVERHEAD. POOR MIXING WILL
LIMIT HOW MUCH OF THIS CAN REACH THE SURFACE...BUT WOULD STILL
EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH TODAY.

ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS PUSHES ACROSS. THUS SEEMS LIKELY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THAT FEATURE...SO INCREASED POPS. WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS GREATER TONIGHT. THUS
ACTUALLY THINK THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL END UP GREATER...SO
WHILE NOTHING WILL BE SEVERE...SHOULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY TONIGHT. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD AGAIN BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 WHERE BETTER SUPPORT IS...BUT STILL A CHANCE FURTHER
NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRUDGE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING THE REMAINING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH AROUND MID AFTERNOON. THE LOW BECOMES WASHED OUT UNDER
THE EXPANDING LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE. WITH DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
...THE PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS WILL BEGIN CLEARING IN THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS...MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL RESULT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 80.
ELSEWHERE...THE LOW TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER.

MILD...PLEASANT AND DRY EARLY FALL WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WITH ABUNDANT SUNDAY AND
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS DURING THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN THE 70S. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS IN THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINNING ON
MONDAY AND WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. MODELS SHOWING SOME DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...SO WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCE
MENTION ON MONDAY IMPROVING TO CHANCES AT NIGHT AREA-WIDE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS SPREADING FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY...BUT MAY HAVE AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE
OR TWO. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MVFR CEILINGS QUICKLY DEVELOPING
TUESDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 AND LINGERING THROUGH THE
DAY LIGHT HOURS. HAVE WRITTEN SOME PESSIMISTIC TAFS WITH LOWER
CEILINGS...BUT STILL DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY TO BE
MORE THAN TEMPORARY AT BEST. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
IN LATE AFTERNOON OR BEYOND AS COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE
SCATTERED.

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LUBBOCK TX

347 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED NEAR 32N115W WILL BECOME ELONGATED IN A
NE/SW ORIENTATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE
DAKOTA OPENS LEAVING A TROUGH AXIS BACK TOWARD WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL
HELP OVERSPREAD SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AS EVIDENCED BY
Q-VECTOR ANALYSIS THROUGH 12Z WED.

AT THE SURFACE...MOIST ADVECTION FROM OUR SOUTH BRINGS JUICY NEAR
SFC AIR BACK INTO OUR AREA AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING. THIS IS BEST
VISUALIZED IN THE HRRR BUT ALSO EVIDENT IN THE NAM. GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF STANDING WATER TO OUR SOUTH...SUSPECT THAT THE DEWPOINTS
MAY BE A BIT HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED. THIS TYPE OF WEAKLY
FORCED SCENARIO USUALLY IS HANDLED BEST BY EXAMINING THE BEST SFC
THETA-E FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS A RATHER BROAD AREA COVERING
ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF PARMER COUNTY
AND THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A LONG/SKINNY
CAPE SITUATION ABOVE ABOUT 750MB. BEST SURFACE DIVERGENCE FIELDS
LOOK TO REMAIN S OF THE AREA FROM NEAR ASPERMONT BACK TOWARD
ODESSA. ALL IN ALL...NOT JUST A WHOLE LOT ACROSS OUR AREA TO
IDENTIFY PREFERRED AREAS OF CONVECTION OUTSIDE THE AFOREMENTIONED
THETA-E MAX. TURNING TO THE MODEL PARAMETRIZED PRECIPITATION
ESTIMATES...NOT MUCH DIFFERENT POPS OUT. WILL THEREFORE MAKE
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC TO CHC WITH BETTER POPS SOUTH CENTRAL THENCE
DIMINISHING TOWARD THE E/W/N. PWAT WILL BE A FAIR BIT ABOVE NORMAL
SO SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. FCST INSTABILITY WILL PERMIT
A FEW STRONG PULSE STORMS WITH 1-2 KJ/KG ACROSS THE SOUTH. 1-6KM
SHEAR IS BEST ACROSS THE NORTH. SUSPECT THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING
SOME MODERATE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE NEAR THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT AND SO WILL HIGHLIGHT THAT POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. THE
BULK OF ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OFF IN THE EVENING THOUGH SOME
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE
LAST TWO WEEKS.

.LONG TERM...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A MESSY SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. UPPER LOW MOVING ONTO THE CENTRAL-NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WILL ELONGATE AND STRETCH BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AS IT
APPROACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...POTENTIALLY ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW SOMEWHERE IN
VICINITY OF THE PERMIAN BASIN. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY KEEP AN UPPER
RIDGE DISPLACED TO OUR WEST AS IT STRETCHES FROM BAJA INTO MANITOBA.
MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE ALONG WITH THIS FORCING WILL KEEP STORM
CHANCES IN PLAY FOR ALL LOCALES WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE AS CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG. CHANCES
BEGIN TO SHIFT WEST THURSDAY WITH DRY AIR INTRUDING FROM THE EAST.
THIS WILL SHUTDOWN PROSPECTS FOR ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
AS PWATS TAKE A NOTICEABLE PLUMMET TO WELL BELOW ONE INCH.

AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OFFSHORE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS CALIFORNIA INTO
THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE WEEKEND...SHOVING THE CUTOFF LOW/TROUGHINESS
EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. BACKING FLOW WILL OCCUR WITH THIS
TRANSITION OF UPPER FEATURES...BUT MOISTURE RECOVERY AND TIMING
REMAIN A LARGE UNCERTAINTY BY SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN
CHANCES SILENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD SLIDE
OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE
PREVIOUSLY RESIDING LOW. DEPENDING ON TIMING AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST...MAY SEE
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURN ALOFT WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS...BUT SEE NOWHERE CLOSE TO A CLEAR ENOUGH SIGNAL TO INSERT
MENTIONABLE POPS AT THIS TIME.

MOIST SOIL AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S/LOW 80S ON THE CAPROCK WITH 80S IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S/60S WEST OF THE ESCARPMENT AND 60S EAST.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 80 59 80 58 78 / 20 10 30 30 20
TULIA 81 61 81 59 80 / 20 20 30 30 20
PLAINVIEW 80 62 80 59 79 / 20 20 30 30 20
LEVELLAND 81 62 80 60 78 / 20 20 30 30 20
LUBBOCK 81 63 80 60 79 / 20 20 30 30 20
DENVER CITY 81 61 80 61 77 / 20 20 30 30 20
BROWNFIELD 81 62 80 61 79 / 20 20 30 20 20
CHILDRESS 86 66 85 62 84 / 20 20 20 20 20
SPUR 82 64 83 61 81 / 30 20 30 20 20
ASPERMONT 83 65 85 62 83 / 20 20 20 20 20

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

26/31

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

346 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

AT 3 AM...A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA. THIS HIGH WAS PRODUCING LIGHT SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAS
RESULTED IN DENSE FOG FORMING AT BLACK RIVER FALLS...MEDFORD...
SPARTA...AND VOLK FIELD. FROM THE OFFICE...WE CAN SEE FOG FORMING
IN THE ROOT... LA CROSSE...BLACK...AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE THE WINDS AT THE OFFICE AND GRANDDAD BLUFF ARE IN THE 10
TO 20 MPH RANGE. THE LATTER IS BASED OFF THE FLAG. THIS IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH WHAT THE NAM SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING. BOTH THE GFS
AND RAP ARE TOO LOW WITH THEIR WIND SPEEDS AT LEAST AT 550 TO
700 FEET. WITH THE STRATUS AND FOG ALREADY DEVELOPING IN THE
LOCAL RIVER VALLEY... EXPECT THAT THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION NOW
EXTENDS AT LEAST UP TO 500 FEET. WITH THE NAM CONTINUING TO SHOW
LIGHT WINDS BELOW THE INVERSION...THE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND BECOME DENSE BY 5 AM TO 530 AM....AND
THEN PERSIST THROUGH 930 AM. NAM SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW LIGHT WINDS
AND SHALLOW INVERSION ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
SO EXPECT THE FOG TO CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THERE TOO.
THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MANY OF THE MESO MODELS. HOWEVER
WITH SUCH A SHALLOW INVERSION /LESS THAN 200 FEET/...THERE IS
CONCERN THAT THE DENSE FOG COULD COME AND GO. WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN
THIS AT SEVERAL SITES...SO NO PLANS TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE AREA...WEAK
925 MB AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THE EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUES
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS CAUSES THE SOUNDINGS TO SLOWLY SATURATE
THE COLUMN BETWEEN 800 AND 600 MB. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO START TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA BETWEEN 10 PM AND 3 AM. RAIN AMOUNTS
WILL BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...A TROUGH WILL RESIDE ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH WEAK
925 TO 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH...EXPECT THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ON THURSDAY THIS TROUGH GETS
SHEARED APART WITH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH BEING ABSORBED
BY THE POLAR JET ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.

MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTHWEST AS A 90 KNOT 250 MB JET MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PORTIONOF
THIS TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM EVENTUALLY FORMS INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
LATE THIS WEEK OVER KANSAS. THIS SYSTEM THEN OPEN UP AND GETS
KICKED NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH TIMING UNCERTAINTIES JUST KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER THE REGION FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
REMAIN AROUND 14C /WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/.
THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S /MAYBE A
FEW LOWER 80S/ FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. ALREADY
SEEING SOME FOG FORMING IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER CHANNEL WITH KONA
DOWN TO 4SM AT 23.04Z. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR A DENSE
FOG EVENT AT KLSE WITH A 3 DEGREE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD AT 04Z
WITH A LIGHT UP CHANNEL FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THE 23.00Z NAM
CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEEP LIGHT WIND PROFILE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
SATURATION OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE. WITH SOME FOG ALREADY
DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER CHANNEL...MOVED THE TIMING OF
THE FOG DEVELOPMENT UP A LITTLE BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BUT NOT BY MUCH AS NO SIGNS OF A HAZE LAYER OVER THE
CITY YET. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF...SHOULD BE ANOTHER DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
SOUTH WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO
INCREASE TUESDAY EVENING AND WILL PROBABLY SEE A HIGH VFR CEILING
AT BOTH SITES...BUT WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE KLSE
TAF DID NOT INCLUDE ANOTHER GROUP TO SHOW THIS OCCURRING.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

937 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THE 23.12Z 250-HPA MAP SHOWED A MID TO UPPER LEVEL PRESSURE PERTURBATION
LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ABOUT A 50-60-KT JET STREAK WAS
PASSING OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS AT THE BASE OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURE ROUGHLY
AT 180-HPA. FARTHER UPSTREAM, AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONE WAS LOCATED ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC WITH AN EXTENSION OF THE EAST ASIAN JET. ELSEWHERE
AND OTHERWISE, COLDER 500-HPA TEMPERATURES HAVE ADVECTED ACROSS THE
PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NORTHERN DISTURBANCE /-11C NOW VERSUS
-8C VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO/. AT THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS,
THE KDDC RAOB WAS SATURATED FROM 700-HPA TO JUST BELOW 500-HPA. THE
PWAT AT 1.43" HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED FROM YESTERDAY, WHICH IS
JUST BELOW +2SD. AT THE SFC, LEE TROUGHING CONTINUES WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD, RESULTING IN BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE REGION WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR THE TAF SITES. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A MORE
ORGANIZED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 00 AND 06 UTC. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 86 61 86 60 / 20 60 20 20
GCK 87 61 87 60 / 30 60 20 20
EHA 86 60 87 60 / 20 40 30 30
LBL 87 61 87 61 / 20 40 30 30
HYS 82 59 82 59 / 30 60 20 10
P28 84 60 83 60 / 20 50 30 20

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...AJOHNSON
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

655 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...AJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...AJOHNSON
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

743 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

A SLOW MOVING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW WARMING
TREND.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THE ONLY ISSUE OF CONCERN IS WILL THERE BE PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT? OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

I PUT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY SINCE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT..SKIES CLEAR AND WITH THE
LONGER HOURS OF DARKNESS THERE IS MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP. DEW POINTS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 40S... SO IT WILL BE
EASY TO COOL TO THE DEW POINT GIVEN THAT.

ALSO GIVEN THE SUNNY...DRY WEATHER I INCREASED THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES 1 TO 2 DEGREES FOR BOTH TODAY...WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTROLS THE WEATHER TODAY BUT THEN A WEAKENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
SINCE THROUGH 700 MB HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL... THERE IS
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE FOR THE UPPER TROUGH TO WORK WITH SO
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EVEN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE
AND UPPER HIGH WILL REST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK...WHILE AN UPPER LOW RETROGRADES WESTWARD ACROSS MO
AND INTO KS. THIS LOW OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION ONLY HELPS TO
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
RIDGE DOES SHOW SOME WEAKENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A SHORT
WAVE COMES INTO IT. HOWEVER IT APPEARS DOUBTFUL THAT THIS WAVE WILL
BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ANY PCPN AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS STOUT.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE WARMEST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE SHOULD
COINCIDE WITH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS OF 75 TO 80 BEING COMMONPLACE.
MONDAY SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN WITH THE SHORT WAVE MOVING IN.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DURING
THE NIGHT TIME HOURS BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND BETWEEN 5 TO 10
KNOTS DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A FEW
CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON (AS SEEN ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP AND NAM).

SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING (SHOWN BY CROSSING
OF TEMP AND DEW POINT NEAR THE GROUND ON THOSE SAME MODELS
SOUNDINGS). I PUT THE FOG ONLY AT THE SITES THAT GET THE MOST
FREQUENTLY REPORT FOG BUT IT MAY IMPACT NEARLY ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. LATE SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO LOOK MORE CLOSELY AT THAT.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

NO ISSUES WORTHY OF NOTE.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW
FALL ON AREA RIVERS.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

619 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

SHOWERS ARE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT A
BREAK FOR A TIME BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...JCB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

1029 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1029 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS OF
1015 AM. DID OPT TO TWEAK WINDS/SKY COVER SLIGHTLY TOWARD CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED. STILL
LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SOUTH...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES NORTH AS LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PIVOTS OUT OF THE
REGION. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE NRN MTNS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH READINGS RANGING IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 60S IN
THE LARGER VALLEYS. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
MEAN 500-300MB TROUGH AXIS BISECTS THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH 09Z RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING UPSTREAM 80-90KT JET
ACROSS SERN ONTARIO WITH LEFT EXIT REGION ACROSS FAR NRN NY AND
VT. THE UPSTREAM JET IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL VORT AND AREA
OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS ONTARIO AND OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY FROM KCXX AND CANADIAN
RADARS INDICATES A REGION OF SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER
AT 1030Z...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
HAVE INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION THRU 15Z. HAVE ALSO
INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS FROM
PREVAILING STRATUS DECK. ELSEWHERE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
POINTS SOUTH...ANTICIPATE DRY CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL BE LESS
PREVALENT OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS OF RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES. DESPITE LIMITED SUNSHINE FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-MID 60S THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHERE
TEMPERATURES HOVERED MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND SPRINGFIELD VERMONT WITH MORE INSOLATIONAL HEATING...WITH
HIGHS NEAR 67F. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SW-W AT 5-10 MPH THRU
THE DAY.

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT SLK TODAY...AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW CONTS ACRS OUR
TAF SITES. LATEST IR SATL PIC SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS
UPSTREAM...SOME ANTICIPATED A BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK TODAY BTWN
3500 AND 5000 FEET...WITH SOME CIGS AROUND 2500 FEET AT SLK.
ALSO...CRNT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACRS THE
NORTHERN TIER...BUT OVERALL IMPACT ON TAF SITES WL BE MINIMAL.
GIVEN ALL THE CLOUDS UPSTREAM AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING >90% BTWN
925MB AND 800MB THRU 03Z THIS EVENING...EXPECT PLENTY OF STRATO
CUMULUS CLOUDS...WITH A SLOW CLRING TREND AFT 03Z. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 4 TO 8 KNOTS TODAY WL BECOME TRRN DRIVEN THIS
EVENING WITH SPEEDS < 6 KNOTS. A FEW GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE BTWN 15
AND 20 KNOTS AT MSS TODAY WITH THE ALIGNED SW TO NE FLW OF WIND
ACRS THE SLV.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... SFC HIGH PRES WL RESULT
IN CLRING SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDS INTO THURS...WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT MPV/SLK ON WEDS AND THURS
MORNINGS. SOME CLOUDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF OUR TAF
SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT
WINDS

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

720 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 649 AM EDT TUESDAY...MEAN 500-300MB TROUGH AXIS BISECTS THE NORTH
COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 09Z RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING
UPSTREAM 80-90KT JET ACROSS SERN ONTARIO WITH LEFT EXIT REGION
ACROSS FAR NRN NY AND VT. THE UPSTREAM JET IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID-LEVEL VORT AND AREA OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS ONTARIO AND OVER THE
NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY FROM
KCXX AND CANADIAN RADARS INDICATES A REGION OF SHOWERS JUST NORTH
OF THE INTL BORDER AT 1030Z...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH
MAY PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION THRU 15Z.
HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS FROM PREVAILING STRATUS DECK. ELSEWHERE IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH...ANTICIPATE DRY CONDITIONS.
CLOUDS WILL BE LESS PREVALENT OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS OF RUTLAND
AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. DESPITE LIMITED SUNSHINE FOR NORTHERN
SECTIONS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-MID 60S
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHERE
TEMPERATURES HOVERED MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND SPRINGFIELD VERMONT WITH MORE INSOLATIONAL HEATING...WITH
HIGHS NEAR 67F. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SW-W AT 5-10 MPH THRU
THE DAY.

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT SLK TODAY...AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW CONTS ACRS OUR
TAF SITES. LATEST IR SATL PIC SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS
UPSTREAM...SOME ANTICIPATED A BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK TODAY BTWN
3500 AND 5000 FEET...WITH SOME CIGS AROUND 2500 FEET AT SLK.
ALSO...CRNT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACRS THE
NORTHERN TIER...BUT OVERALL IMPACT ON TAF SITES WL BE MINIMAL.
GIVEN ALL THE CLOUDS UPSTREAM AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING >90% BTWN
925MB AND 800MB THRU 03Z THIS EVENING...EXPECT PLENTY OF STRATO
CUMULUS CLOUDS...WITH A SLOW CLRING TREND AFT 03Z. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 4 TO 8 KNOTS TODAY WL BECOME TRRN DRIVEN THIS
EVENING WITH SPEEDS < 6 KNOTS. A FEW GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE BTWN 15
AND 20 KNOTS AT MSS TODAY WITH THE ALIGNED SW TO NE FLW OF WIND
ACRS THE SLV.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

654 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL CONT AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU 06Z WEDS. SFC HIGH PRES IS LOCATED ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLW ACRS OUR TAF SITES. THIS COMBINED
WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY...HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS ACRS MANY OF OUR TAF SITES. PER LATEST SOUNDING DATA
EXPECT A BROKEN CLOUD DECK TODAY AT 4000 TO 6000 FEET WITH WEST
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SW TO NE ALIGNED
SLV...IMPACTING MSS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WL CLR THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS DEVELOPING AFT 00Z.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

710 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND IT WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST MADE MINOR UPDATES TO THE SKY COVER FOR NW PA. THE HRRR MODEL
IS TRYING TO INDICATE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING
OVER NE OH THIS MORNING. THIS DOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE AS THE AIR
MASS IS VERY DRY. CONTINUING WITH THE SUNNY FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA. SOME VERY SPOTTY DENSE FOG
MAY OCCUR THROUGH 9 AM MAINLY IN THE WAYNE...HOLMES AND STARK
COUNTY AREAS. THE THREAT OF PATCHY FROST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK MAINLY IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL START OFF WESTERLY AND WITH THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE NEAR 10C...SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE. THEY SHOULD BE
SCATTERED AND NONE THE LESS MOSTLY SUNNY. ELSEWHERE THE AIRMASS
WILL BE DRY AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SUNNY. FORECAST
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER FOR THIS PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND MOSTLY SUNNY
DAYS. SOME CIRRUS COULD BE AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BECAUSE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST. THE CIRRUS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY THIN. SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WENT TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS
AND USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND LOCAL SCHEMES FOR THE LOWS.
TONIGHT THE LOWS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH THAT WE WILL NOT HAVE TO
WORRY ABOUT FROST.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED WITH LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...AND REMAINING NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SECONDARY HIGH WILL DROP OUT OF
CANADA MONDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY. ALL TOLD
EXTENDED WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...DRY AND WARM...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ASIDE FROM PATCHY MVFR BR FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS MORNING VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...VFR.

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LAKE WILL PROVIDE QUIET CONDITIONS
ON THE LAKE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST AND MOVE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY...BUT A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN LAKES INTO THE WEEKEND.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

629 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND IT WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA.

.OUTLOOK...VFR.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

609 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. GENERALLY SHOULD STAY VFR IN THE RAIN...ALTHOUGH
PERIODIC VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE SOME MVFR STRATUS FORM
THIS MORNING...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 29. THUS KHON HAS THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL...BUT THINK SOME LOWER CIGS MAY MOVE INTO KFSD
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. THINGS
SHOULD BECOME VFR AGAIN THIS EVENING. WILL BE BREEZY TODAY AS
WELL...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KTS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...BUT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. SOME SIGNS WE
COULD SEE FOG AND OR LOW STRATUS FORM AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO
MENTION...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

1019 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO SPREAD THE MENTION OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF VAL
VERDE COUNTY INTO THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE LATEST HI-
RES RUC ALONG WITH THE NMM AND ARW MODELS ALL SHOW CONVECTION
FIRING IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED REGION THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LATEST WINDS AND DEW POINTS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/

AVIATION...
NO CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS DRY AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.
MVFR CIGS AT KSSF AND POSSIBLY KSAT FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING
THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE E/NE 5-10 KNOTS. KDRT WILL SEE E/SE
WINDS 5-10 KNOTS. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING IMPACTS AT KDRT AND
WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE KDRT FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MOIST AIR CONVERGENCE IN THE 925-850MB LAYER HAS RESULTED IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN
FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP THESE SHOWERS ISOLATED AND SOUTH OF
U.S. 90 THROUGH THE MORNING. THE POOLED MOIST AIR WILL BE ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING IS
REACHED...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THAT AREA. HOWEVER...WE EXPECT THESE TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND
SHORT-LIVED...AS THEY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE WESTWARD INTO MEXICO.
THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY TODAY...AND ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN FAIR TO POOR AGREEMENT WITH
THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE CUT-OFF LOW PROJECTED TO BE OVER
TEXAS BY FRIDAY...THEN EVENTUALLY EJECTING OUT INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES ACROSS
THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND. DESPITE THE VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...ALL
GENERALLY POINT TOWARD MINIMAL POPS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS FRIDAY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF U.S. 90...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE AND MANY AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY. THERE APPEAR TO BE INCREASING PROSPECTS FOR A
COLD FRONT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AND BEYOND THE SEVEN-DAY FORECAST TO DISCUSS MORE
THAN THIS BRIEF MENTION.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 87 63 85 63 85 / - - - - 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 87 60 85 60 85 / - - - - 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 88 63 87 63 88 / - - - - 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 85 62 86 61 86 / - - - - 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 89 70 86 66 84 / 20 - - - 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 85 62 86 61 86 / - - - - 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 92 65 90 64 90 / 10 10 - - 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 87 63 85 62 85 / - - - - 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 86 62 86 64 87 / - - - - 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 89 66 87 65 87 / - - - - 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 90 66 88 65 87 / - - - - 10

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...99
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...09
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LUBBOCK TX

610 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS ATTM. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK /10 PCT/ OF MVFR BR AT EITHER TERMINAL THROUGH 15Z. THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING A 20 PCT OF TSRA WILL EXIST AT BOTH KLBB AND
KCDS. THERE ALSO EXIST SOME RISK OF FG WEDNESDAY MORNING TOWARD SUNRISE.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED NEAR 32N115W WILL BECOME ELONGATED IN A
NE/SW ORIENTATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE
DAKOTA OPENS LEAVING A TROUGH AXIS BACK TOWARD WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL
HELP OVERSPREAD SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AS EVIDENCED BY
Q-VECTOR ANALYSIS THROUGH 12Z WED.

LONG TERM...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A MESSY SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. UPPER LOW MOVING ONTO THE CENTRAL-NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WILL ELONGATE AND STRETCH BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AS IT
APPROACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...POTENTIALLY ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW SOMEWHERE IN
VICINITY OF THE PERMIAN BASIN. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY KEEP AN UPPER
RIDGE DISPLACED TO OUR WEST AS IT STRETCHES FROM BAJA INTO MANITOBA.
MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE ALONG WITH THIS FORCING WILL KEEP STORM
CHANCES IN PLAY FOR ALL LOCALES WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE AS CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG. CHANCES
BEGIN TO SHIFT WEST THURSDAY WITH DRY AIR INTRUDING FROM THE EAST.
THIS WILL SHUTDOWN PROSPECTS FOR ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
AS PWATS TAKE A NOTICEABLE PLUMMET TO WELL BELOW ONE INCH.

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

99/99/26

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

637 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTHWEST AS A 90 KNOT 250 MB JET MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THIS TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM EVENTUALLY FORMS INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
LATE THIS WEEK OVER KANSAS. THIS SYSTEM THEN OPEN UP AND GETS
KICKED NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH TIMING UNCERTAINTIES JUST KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED IN LSE...WITH LIFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES OBSERVED. THERE IS POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS FOR THE VISIBILITY TO DROP TO VLIFR...BUT PREDOMINANTLY LIFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE OBSERVED. LOOK FOR THE VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS
TO DISSIPATE BETWEEN 9-10 AM JUST LIKE YESTERDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS VFR...DUE TO DRY AIR IN
THE LOWEST 5000 FT ABOVE THE GROUND PROVIDED BY HIGH PRESSURE.
NOTE...THOUGH...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE OF ALTOSTRATUS TONIGHT
AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THERE COULD
EVEN BE A FEW SHOWERS IMPACTING RST.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...AJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

316 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT-WED...SCATTERED SLOW MOVING STORMS ASSISTED BY LARGE SCALE
FORCING FROM ALOFT WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE REGION THROUGH
NIGHTFALL. HRRR GUID SUGGEST HIGHER EVENING COVERAGE OF RAINFALL
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPE WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE
ALONG WITH A RELATIVELY UNCONTAMINATED AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
WL KEEP A MENTION OF SCT COVERAGE AREAWIDE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF A QUARTER AN
INCH...WITH LIKELY AMOUNTS UP TO HALF AN INCH OVER THE TREASURE
COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. HAVE ALSO ADDED
PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS GIVEN THE RAIN WETTED GROUND
AND LIGHT WINDS.

WED...MAP FEATURE EVOLUTION POINTS TOWARD THE PERSISTENT
TROUGHING WHICH HAD BEEN NEAR THE AREA MUCH OF THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS LIFTING NORTHEAST...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA. A RESULTING LOW LEVEL WIND BECOMING
EAST EARLY SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS
DURING THE DAY AND WL KEEP LIKELY WORDING TO POP POTENTIAL. UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

THU-MON...(MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISC) CENTRAL FLORIDA ADVERTISED IN AN
ONSHORE WIND PATTEN. THE EASTERLY WINDS PUSH A MOIST AND RELATIVELY
STABLE MARINE AIRMASS INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. RAIN CHCS HOWEVER
WL LOWER TO THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF EVENING
STORMS AND SHOWERS ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT. COASTAL TIME HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS SUGGESTING A SLIGHT (20 POP) CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT
COASTAL CONVERGENCE SHOWERS AND REACHING INLAND WEST OF INTERSTATE
95 FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

.AVIATION...
TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS IN SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY THROUGH
SUNSET WITH CONVECTION DIMINISHING THROUGH LATE EVENING. OVERNIGHT
MAY SEE LIGHT -SHRA MAINLY FROM MCO NORTHWARD NEAR STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND WITH ANY ONSHORE MOVING CONVECTION ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST. SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE ALL SITES EARLY WED MAINLY DUE OT
RAIN WETTED GROUNDS AND NEAR CALM WINDS.

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH EMBEDDED
LIGHTNING WILL CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER SEA STATES INTO THE LATE
EVENING. SEAS OTHERWISE WILL AVERAGE AROUND 2 FT WITH VARIABLE
WINDS INTO EARLY WED.

WED-SAT...EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS THE FORECAST PERIOD. EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. SEAS
AROUND 2 FEET NEARSHORE AND 2 TO 4 FEET OFFSHORE.

.HYDROLOGY...
SHINGLE CREEK (SHIF1) CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE SINCE EARLY MON AND
HAS NOW FALLEN TO 57.15 FEET WHICH IS NEARLY A FOOT BELOW ACTION
STAGE. ASTOR ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER (ASTF1) AT 2.30 FOOT
CONTINUES TO STEADILY FALL IS ALSO BELOW (ACTION STAGE IS 2.5
FEET).

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 71 87 74 88 / 40 70 40 50
MCO 71 90 73 90 / 30 70 40 50
MLB 73 87 76 88 / 50 70 40 60
VRB 72 88 75 89 / 50 70 40 60
LEE 71 89 73 90 / 40 60 30 50
SFB 72 89 74 90 / 30 70 40 50
ORL 73 89 75 90 / 30 70 40 50
FPR 73 88 75 88 / 50 70 40 60

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE/AVIATION...JP
RADAR/DSS...DKW/MRV
HYDROLOGY...PG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

311 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

...MINOR AFD CORRECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THE FORECAST CONUNDRUM FOR THIS EVENING IS WHAT TO DO WITH
SPATIOTEMPORAL ARRANGEMENTS OF POPS. LARGELY BIASED POP ARRANGEMENT
TO THE MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND 4 KM NAM. THE GFS HAS
CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH THAN THESE MODELS AS AN OUTLIER. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A TROUGH AXIS THAT IS
DRAPED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. FARTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST, DRIER AIR HAS WORKED ITS WAY IN WITH CLEAR SKIES, SO AM
MORE DUBIOUS TO CONVECTION FORMING. THE CAVEAT TO THIS IS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO WHERE CUMULUS IS STARTING TO BUBBLE. THIS ACTIVITY
MIGHT NOT REACH OUR AREA AND THE PROBLEM WITH THAT IS THAT THE LOW
LEVEL JET FOR TONIGHT IS DISPLACED/FORECAST TO THE SOUTHEAST, SO NOT
SURE OUR NORTHWEST ZONES ARE IN THE AREA FOR SUSTAINED LATE NIGHT
CONVECTION VIA THE LOW LEVEL JET LIKE COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
ANYWAY, HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS FROM LIBERAL TO DODGE CITY TO LARNED
AND POINTS SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BE IN THE BETTER AREA OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT 500-
1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE ALONG WITH ABOUT 30 KT OF BULK SHEAR. THE LARGE
HAIL PARAMETER VIA THE 12Z NAM SOLUTION COMES UP WITH A VALUE OF 4
TO 5, SUGGESTING THAT 1.5" WOULD BE THE MAX FOR UPPER HAIL SIZE
FORECAST DISTRIBUTION. PROBABLY WILL BE SMALLER AS CONVECTION
BECOMES QUASI-LINEAR (AT LEAST SHOWN IN THE MODELS) AND YOU GET
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND HIGHER BENEFICIAL COMPETITION
FOR HAIL EMBRYOS. SPEAKING OF WHICH, WITH A PWAT OF SLIGHTLY UNDER
+2SD, WOULD NOT RULE OUT ANOTHER 1-3" PRECIPITATION HIT FOR
LOCATIONS THAT ARE UNDER TRAINING STORMS. RIGHT NOW THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREA FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

OTHERWISE, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS WITH A PREFERENCE
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY EVENING. MINIMUMS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND MAXIMUMS TOMORROW
WILL BE IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES INTO
THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. AS
THIS OCCURS, SOME OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BREAK OFF FROM THE MAIN WAVE AND RETROGRADE
AS A CLOSED LOW INTO THE MIDWEST. INITIALLY, THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FOR
SOME WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH COULD TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE LACK
OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT, DON`T THINK ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LAST
TOO LONG INTO THE EVENING. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP AGAIN ON THURSDAY EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AS TO
WHETHER THESE STORMS DEVELOP IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS OR REMAIN CONFINED
FARTHER SOUTH.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
OVER THE THE WESTERN STATES IS PROGGED TO LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE UPPER RIDGE GETS EJECTED EASTWARD.
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL BRUSH BY THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRYING OUT SOMEWHAT INTO
THE WEEKEND AND WITH WEAK UPPER FLOW, THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MINIMAL TO NON-EXISTENT. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
INCREASING AGAIN AS THE WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WAVE MOVES OUT
INTO THE PLAINS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF
THIS BUT IT SHOULD BE SOMETIME AROUND LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION WILL PLAY OUT TODAY/TONIGHT.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THERE
ISN`T ANY REAL DEFINITIVE PREFERENCE IN TARGET AREA. AS A RESULT, WILL
CONTINUE WITH VCTS/CB GROUPS FOR THIS EVENING AND WILL AMEND/ADJUST
AS NECESSARY IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN SPATIOTEMPORAL ARRANGEMENT
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DESPITE THE ABOVE, CIGS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PD.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 61 85 61 85 / 60 20 20 20
GCK 61 87 60 86 / 20 20 20 10
EHA 60 87 60 83 / 20 20 30 10
LBL 61 88 61 85 / 60 30 30 20
HYS 59 83 59 84 / 30 10 10 10
P28 60 82 62 85 / 50 30 20 20

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...SUGDEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

226 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THE FORECAST CONUNDRUM FOR THIS EVENING IS WHAT TO DO WITH
SPATIOTEMPORAL ARRANGEMENTS OF POPS. LARGELY BIASED POP ARRANGEMENT
TO THE MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND 4 KM NAM. THE GFS HAS
CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH THAN THESE MODELS AS AN OUTLIER. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A TROUGH AXIS THAT IS
DRAPED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. FARTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST, DRIER AIR HAS WORKED ITS WAY IN WITH CLEAR SKIES, SO AM
MORE DUBIOUS TO CONVECTION FORMING. THE CAVEAT TO THIS IS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO WHERE CUMULUS IS STARTING TO BUBBLE. THIS ACTIVITY
MIGHT NOT REACH OUR AREA AND THE PROBLEM WITH THAT IS THAT THE LOW
LEVEL JET FOR TONIGHT IS DISPLACED/FORECAST TO THE SOUTHEAST, SO NOT
SURE OUR NORTHWEST ZONES ARE IN THE AREA FOR SUSTAINED LATE NIGHT
CONVECTION VIA THE LOW LEVEL JET LIKE COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
ANYWAY, HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS FROM LIBERAL TO DODGE CITY TO LARNED
AND POINTS SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BE IN THE BETTER AREA OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT 500-
1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE ALONG WITH ABOUT 30 KT OF BULK SHARE. THE LARGE
HAIL PARAMETER VIA THE 12Z NAM SOLUTION COMES UP WITH A VALUE OF 4
TO 5, SUGGESTING THAT 1.5" WOULD BE THE MAX FOR UPPER HAIL SIZE
FORECAST DISTRIBUTION. PROBABLY WILL BE SMALLER AS CONVECTION
BECOMES QUASI-LINEAR (AT LEAST SHOWN IN THE MODELS) AND YOU GET
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND HIGHER BENEFICIAL COMPETITION
FOR HAIL EMBRYOS. SPEAKING OF WHICH, WITH A PWAT OF SLIGHTLY UNDER
+2SD, WOULD NOT RULE OUT ANOTHER 1-3" PRECIPITATION HIT FOR
LOCATIONS THAT ARE UNDER TRAINING STORMS. RIGHT NOW THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREA FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...SUGDEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

215 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...AJOHNSON
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...SUGDEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1200 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 87 61 86 60 / 20 60 20 20
GCK 88 61 87 60 / 30 60 20 20
EHA 87 60 87 60 / 20 40 30 30
LBL 87 61 87 61 / 20 40 30 30
HYS 84 59 82 59 / 30 60 20 10
P28 85 60 83 60 / 20 50 30 20

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...AJOHNSON
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

1258 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM UPDATE: NO SIG CHGS TO THE GOING FCST. HRRR HRLY MODEL SIM
RADAR REF DOES SHOW SHWRS MOVG INTO THE FA OVR THE NEXT FEW HRS...
WHICH SEEMS TO BE BACKED BY ACTUAL CAN-AM RADAR IMAGERY...WHICH
SHOWS SHWRS QUICKLY ADVCG TOWARD NW ME FROM THE LAURENTIAN
HIGHLANDS OF QB. OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTN WERE ADJUSTED TO SLIGHTLY MODIFIED HI TEMPS...WHERE THE
FCST WAS RAISED A COUPLE OF MORE DEG OVR NW ME BASED ON TRENDS
OBSVD FROM NOON OBS FROM THE PRIOR TEMP FCST AT NOON.

PRIOR DISC: THE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A COOL GUSTY WESTERLY BREEZE TODAY. A BIT OF
MOISTURE POOLED IN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WILL SWING
ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING
THE MIDDAY. DOWNEAST WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING THE AIR TO BECOME COLD AND
CALM UNDER CLEAR SKIES. FROST IS LIKELY IN MANY CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SPOTS TOWARD MORNING.&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT KEEPING GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH THE BETTER
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH MONDAY KEEPING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL LEVEL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY.

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. A GUSTY
WEST WIND CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE AIR BECOMING CALM
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 1230 PM UPDATE...WV HTS HAVE DROPPED TO ABT 5 FT AND
WINDS HAVE FALLEN TO MSLY BLO 20 KT OVR THE OUTER MZS...SO WITH
A CONTD XPCTD GRAD SUBSIDING TREND XPCTD TO CONT THRU THE REST OF
THE DAY INTO TNGT... WE HAVE DROPPED THE REMAINING SCA.

ORGNL DISC...AN SCA WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS OVER 5 FT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SEAS SUBSIDE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

435 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG AXIS BLDG
INTO THE GREAT LKS IN ADVANCE OF A SHRTWV MOVING NEWD THRU THE
NCENTRAL PLAINS. WITH SFC HI PRES RDG STRETCHING FM OHIO NWWD THRU
THE UPR MIDWEST UNDER THE UPR RDG AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...12Z
PWAT WAS AS LO AS ABOUT 0.50 INCH /ABOUT 70 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ AT
MPX...SKIES ARE MOSUNNY. THERE IS A BACK DOOR COLD FNT SLIPPING
SLOWLY SWWD THRU THRU THE E HALF OF LK SUP ASSOCIATED WITH BLDG HI
PRES NEAR JAMES BAY...BUT THE AIRMASS IS SO DRY THERE ARE NO CLDS
ALONG THIS BNDRY IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY DYNAMIC SUPPORT. H85 TEMPS
ARE AS HI AS 12-13C...SUPPORTING TEMPS THAT HAVE RISEN INTO THE 70S
AWAY FM LK MODERATION. LOOKING UPSTREAM...HI CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH
PLAINS SHRTWV ARE ADVANCING INTO NW WI.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON TEMPS AND
EXPECTED CLD COVER/POTENTIAL FOR ANY SHOWERS LATER ON WED OVER AT
LEAST THE FAR WRN CWA IN ADVANCE OF DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU THE
PLAINS.

LATE TDAY/TNGT...ALTHOUGH BACK DOOR COLD FNT REINFORCED BY LK BREEZE
FORMATION/INLAND HEATING MAY SLIP INTO THE CWA BORDERING LK SUP FM
THE KEWEENAW E TOWARD WHITEFISH PT LATE THIS AFTN...SUBSIDENCE/DRY
AIRMASS WL LIMIT IMPACT TO SOME LOCAL COOLING NEAR THE SHORE.
OTRW...HI CLDS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHRTWV MOVING NEWD THRU THE PLAINS
WL ARRIVE OVER AT LEAST THE W HALF OF UPR MI OVERNT. THE COMBINATION
OF THESE INCRSG HI CLDS/STRENGTHENING SSW H925 FLOW TO 25 KTS LATE
UNDER A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT CLOSER TO INCOMING SHRTWV WL LIMIT THE
DIURNAL TEMP FALL OVER THE W. THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP MAY
NOT SEE TEMPS FALL BLO 50. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS NEAR 40 AT
THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS OVER THE E UNDER WEAKER GRADIENT/LINGERING
DRIER AIR. MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG FCST IN THE FCST FOR THE E HALF
WITH FVRBL DIURNAL COOLING.

WED...AS SHRTWV MOVES INTO NE MN/NW WI BY LATE AND SOME DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC OVERSPREADS UPR MI...AT LEAST MID/HI CLDS WL BE
THICKENING SW-NE THRU THE DAY. A NUMBER OF THE MODELS GENERATE SOME
LGT PCPN OVER THE FAR W LATE IN THE AFTN WHERE THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES A DEEPER INCRS IN MSTR UNDER THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT HOW QUICKLY THE NEAR SFC LYR WL
MOISTEN...THE NAM AND GFS BOTH INDICATE PWAT WL INCRS TO 1.25-1.35
INCH OR ABOUT 175 PCT OF NORMAL. SO INTRODUCED SOME LO CHC POPS INTO
THE FAR W LATE IN THE DAY. INCRSG CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL RISE IN
TEMP TO THE 60S AT MOST PLACES DESPITE STEADY S WIND THAT MAINTAINS
H85 TEMPS IN THE 10-12C RANGE. THE HIEST TEMPS MOST LIKELY TO REACH
AOA 70 WL BE OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E AWAY FM MODERATION OFF LK MI
AND WHERE THE CLDS WL THICKEN LATER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TEMP WISE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID AND UPPER 70S. THE COOLEST
READINGS WILL BE FOUND ALONG LAKE MI...ON S WINDS. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE ON THOSE DAYS WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...AND THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE W HALF. THIS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500MB THROUGH THAT WILL BE SHIFTING FROM W
LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.P. BY 12Z
THURSDAY. KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE W HALF. THE
SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND WITH NO REAL PULL OF MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF...LIMITED PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED. THE WEAKENING TROUGH
WILL SINK SE THURSDAY...WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
DAY.

AT THAT POINT...THE SIZABLE 500MB RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM MUCH OF THE
W AND CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. A SFC TROUGH
SET UP N OF LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY MAY SINK ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON
SUNDAY. WENT WITH COOLER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT
STILL MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS MOVING
ACROSS MORE OF N UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...A
FEW MORE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS COME TUESDAY AS THE MAIN 500MB RIDGE EXITS TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

ALTHOUGH SOME HI CLDS IN ADVANCE OF A DISTURBANCE MOVING NE FM THE
PLAINS WL INVADE UPR MI LATE TNGT/WED...DRY LLVL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH HI PRES WL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL 3 TAF SITES THIS FCST
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THRU
THIS COMING WEEKEND AND COOL LAKE WATERS/HI STABILITY...EXPECT WINDS
NO HIGHER THAN 20 KTS THRU SUN.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

250 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A
PLEASANT END TO SEPTEMBER. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EACH
DAY (VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S)...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. THERE ARE ONLY TWO PERIODS OF
CONCERN WITH CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SHOWER BRUSHING THE AREA. THE FIRST
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY SPINNING IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS SHIFTS TOWARDS
THE AREA. EXPECT THE BEST ENERGY WITH THE WAVE TO BE TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...BUT IT COULD PUSH A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS
NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN U.P. AS THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DISTURBANCE BECOMES INFLUENCED BY A SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE IN CANADA. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE
FARTHER EAST WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AND WESTERN U.P. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY OVER THE WEST. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL WEAKEN
AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND LEAD TO
DECREASING CLOUDS. THE OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A COLD FRONT
POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE SOLUTIONS WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH THE ECMWF
DISSIPATING IT OVER NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE GFS RUNNING IT
THROUGH THE CWA. THINK SLOWLY DROPPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. THE UPPER
TROUGH CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST STILL APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...LEADING TO MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THRU
THIS COMING WEEKEND AND COOL LAKE WATERS/HI STABILITY...EXPECT WINDS
NO HIGHER THAN 20 KTS THRU SUN.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

335 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING NEAR THE NEB/S DAKOTA BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PUSHING EAST WITH STILL
SOME LINGER STRATUS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. MEANWHILE A SFC
TROUGH/WIND SHIFT IS PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. WINDS
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM INTO
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WARMEST ACROSS THE SW. FAR EASTERN CWA
STILL IN THE 60S DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS. A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NW NEB...INTO N
CENTRAL.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY IS
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE TROUGH LINE. NEAR TERM
MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAKENING CAP WITH A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS TO
FIRE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE RUC IS MORE ROBUST THAN THE OTHER
MODELS...ALTHOUGH BOTH THE HRRR OR THE NAM DO DEVELOP A LINE. SHEAR
IS MARGINAL...30 KTS OR LESS...AND NARROW BAND OF LESS THAN A 1000
J/KG OF CAPE SO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO...ESPECIALLY FROM HAIL AS FREEZING
LEVELS IS CLOSE TO 13000 FT ASL.

THE ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST WITH ANY STORMS PUSHING EAST OF
THE CWA BY MORNING. MEANWHILE SOME DRY AIR TO FILL IN BEHIND THE
TROUGH. MODELS SUGGESTING A DRY LAYER TO TRAP SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS N CENTRAL TOWARDS MORNING WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME
FOG...AND CONTINUED TO MENTION PATCHY FOG AFTER SHOWERS END.

TOMORROW DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND A NICE WARM UP ACROSS THE BOARD AS RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. MOST AREAS SHOULD PUSH INTO THE 80S...WITH THE FAR
WESTERN ZONES NEARING 90.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST AND A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. THESE HIGHS TO BE AT LEAST 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH THURSDAY TO INCREASE TO 15 TO
25 MPH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MILD EACH NIGHT WITH LOWS ALSO 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM 55 TO 60.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO WYOMING AND MONTANA BY MONDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF
IS ABOUT 12-18 HRS FASTER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAN THE 12Z GFS.
WITH THE 12Z GEM IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...PREFERENCE
LIES WITH THE ECMWF. LATEST SUPERBLEND POPS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 30 POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT LOOK ON
TRACK. BY TUESDAY...H5 HEIGHT DIFFERENCE ARE NEAR 120 METERS
ACROSS IDAHO AND UTAH. THIS IS DUE TO THE GFS WITH ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION AND THE ECMWF FORECASTING AN UPPER TROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY
AND UPPER 70S SUNDAY...COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 70S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...EAST OF KVTN. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
THIS HAS A CHANCE TO IMPACT KVTN...AND DID INCLUDE IN THE KVTN
TAF. THE FORECAST DOES REMAIN VFR...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF REDUCTION IN
VSBY CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN STRONGER ISOLD STORMS. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE THE SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KLBF...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AND NO MENTION IN TAF AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW SKIES
CLEAR WITH LOCALLY PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...MASEK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

1219 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS TOWARDS SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY BE OBSERVED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A GENERAL CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT HOWEVER...GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST CLOUD
COVER COULD BECOME MORE DENSE...AND IN FACT ONE SET OF GUIDANCE
GOES AS FAR AS TO SUGGEST MVFR TO PERIODIC IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
OBSERVED AT GRI TOWARDS SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT OVERLY HIGH THAT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE REALIZED SO
FOR NOW...WILL PRESENT A CEILING NEAR 4000FT AGL AT GRI...AND GO
WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 2000FT AGL FOR BOTH GRI AND EAR AND LET
FUTURE SHIFTS INCREASE CLOUD DENSITY IF NEED BE. THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A JET STREAK JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY PROMOTE
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT BOTH TAF SITES TONIGHT AND AT
THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO GO AHEAD WITH SUCH
CONDITIONS IN THE TAF 04-13Z. THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK MAY
ALSO PROMOTE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT BOTH TAF SITES
TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACTUALLY BEING REALIZED IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SUSTAINED AT 8-15KTS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD AND ACCOMPANIED BY HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND
21KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...BRYANT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

307 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

STRATUS IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND A MILD
WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

WILL FOLLOW THE 18 UTC RAP FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH
TONIGHT...WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT STRATUS FIELD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 1930 UTC.
EXPECT THE CURRENT STRATUS FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A 925-850 MB
MOISTURE AXIS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING...SLOWLY ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DID ADD A PATCHY FOG MENTION ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK WHERE WINDS WILL BE WEAKEST
TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...A WARM WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY...TO THE UPPER 80S FAR WEST. THE ONE CAVEAT IN THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS IF THE STRATUS DOES LINGER A BIT LONGER
THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WHICH COULD
HOLD HIGHS CLOSER TO THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

WARM AND DRY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THROUGH THE WEEK.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WED-FRI. THIS WILL
BE THE WARMEST WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES WE`VE SEEN SINCE EARLY
AUGUST.

LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...

THE MODELS (12 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM) CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE
ALSO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER THAT MOST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY. HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN
ENTER THE FORECAST MONDAY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

MVFR STRATUS AT KJMS AND KBIS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO NEAR IFR. THIS STRATUS MAY
BRUSH KMOT THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AT
KMOT/KBIS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...DID NOT ADD
TO THE TAFS AT THIS TIMES. STRATUS CLEARS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

1215 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IN AREAS
FROM THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND EASTWARD...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN
THE LATER AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE LINGERING STRATUS THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...AFFECTING MAINLY KSUX AFTER 09Z.

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LUBBOCK TX

1239 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.AVIATION...
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE IS ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
-TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF EITHER TERMINAL FROM 20 UTC TO 03
UTC...WHICH COULD BRING SHORT DURATION REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND
CEILINGS ALONG WITH LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. ALSO...SOME PATCHY GROUND
FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY WED MORNING.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS ATTM. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK /10 PCT/ OF MVFR BR AT EITHER TERMINAL THROUGH 15Z. THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING A 20 PCT OF TSRA WILL EXIST AT BOTH KLBB AND
KCDS. THERE ALSO EXIST SOME RISK OF FG WEDNESDAY MORNING TOWARD SUNRISE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 59 80 58 78 57 / 10 30 30 20 20
TULIA 61 81 59 80 58 / 20 30 30 20 20
PLAINVIEW 62 80 59 79 57 / 20 30 30 20 10
LEVELLAND 62 80 60 78 58 / 20 30 30 20 10
LUBBOCK 63 80 60 79 58 / 20 30 30 20 10
DENVER CITY 61 80 61 77 58 / 20 30 30 20 10
BROWNFIELD 62 80 61 79 58 / 20 30 20 20 10
CHILDRESS 66 85 62 84 61 / 20 20 20 20 10
SPUR 64 83 61 81 59 / 20 30 20 20 10
ASPERMONT 65 85 62 83 61 / 20 20 20 20 10

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

1237 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE COMING DOWN ON NW
FLOW ALOFT WHILE A GOOD HUMIDITY GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY TO JUST WEST OF SAT IS ALLOWING SOME CU TO FORM EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR IS DOMINATING THE AUS AREA WHERE SAT/SSF ARE
RIGHT ON THE CUSP OF THE HIGHER HUMIDITIES. HAVE ADDED SOME CU
INTO THE FORECAST FOR SAT/SSF FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DONE THE SAME
OUT IN DRT AS THE MOISTURE PUSHES WEST ON EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS. WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE OUT WEST BY WED MORNING...POSSIBLE
MVFR AT DRT EARLY TOMORROW. LEFT A SCT GROUP IN THERE FOR NOW DUE
TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN GETTING ANY WIDESPREAD MVFR. SAT/SSF/AUS
SHOULD SEE A REPEAT OF VFR ON WEDNESDAY. LIGHT EAST AND NE WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT SE OUT IN DRT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO SPREAD THE MENTION OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF VAL
VERDE COUNTY INTO THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE LATEST HI-
RES RUC ALONG WITH THE NMM AND ARW MODELS ALL SHOW CONVECTION
FIRING IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED REGION THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LATEST WINDS AND DEW POINTS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 87 63 85 63 85 / - - - - 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 87 60 85 60 85 / - - - - 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 88 63 87 63 88 / - - - - 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 85 62 86 61 86 / - - - - 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 89 70 86 66 84 / 20 20 - - 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 85 62 86 61 86 / - - - - 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 92 65 90 64 90 / 10 10 - - 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 87 63 85 62 85 / - - - - 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 86 62 86 64 87 / - - - - 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 89 66 87 65 87 / - - - - 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 90 66 88 65 87 / - - - - 10

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1225 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTHWEST AS A 90 KNOT 250 MB JET MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THIS TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM EVENTUALLY FORMS INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
LATE THIS WEEK OVER KANSAS. THIS SYSTEM THEN OPEN UP AND GETS
KICKED NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH TIMING UNCERTAINTIES JUST KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

GOOD VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
HOLDS OVER THE AREA. FEW CUMULUS IN THE 3500-4500 FT RANGE DURING
PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THICKENING CIRRUS/MID CLOUDS THRU
THE EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH IN NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE
OVER SD ROTATES EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT...SPREADING INCREASING MID/
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT ACROSS THE TAF SITES. APPEARS A BAND OF
-SHRA TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT/WED MORNING WITH THE
INITIAL ROUND OF LIFT...WEAKENING AS IT DOES. INCLUDED A -SHRA
MENTION AT KRST IN THE 06-13Z WINDOW...OTHERWISE LEFT PRECIP MENTION
AS VCSH. WITH THE LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE...APPEARS
CIGS/VSBYS WITH THIS BAND OF -SHRA TO REMAIN VFR THOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT A LCL/BRIEF MVFR VSBY IN ANY STRONGER SHRA LATE TONIGHT/WED
MORNING.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION.....RRS