Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 09/21/14

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA

1040 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
WARM TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING A COOLING TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-SUN)...WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
CONTINUING TO SPIN ITS WAY DOWN THE CENTRAL COAST...A WEAK ONSHORE
GRADIENT AND A MODERATE TO STRONG EDDY...THERE`S BEEN QUITE A BIT OF
STRATUS COVERAGE INLAND THIS MORNING WITH AROUND A 3K FT MARINE
LAYER. COOLING TREND ALSO ON TRACK WITH MANY LOCATIONS AS MUCH AS 10
DEG COOLER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING`S READINGS AT THIS TIME. SO COOLER
HIGH TEMPS FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOK GOOD. VISIBLE LOOP SHOWING
STRATUS DECK IS TRYING TO THIN OUT SO EXPECT MOST AREAS TO CLEAR OUT
BY LATE MORNING BUT POSSIBLY NOT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL TWEAK THE
FORECAST FOR LESS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER ALL BUT THE VENTURA AND
SBA COUNTY MOUNTAINS WHERE THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED INDICIES AROUND -3.0
CENTERED OVER THE VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS NORTH INTO SBA MOUNTAINS...A
POOL OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INDICATED BY A BROAD AREA OF 850
DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 10 AND 12C...AND FINALLY SOME DYNAMIC HELP FROM A
FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. WHAT DOES FORM SHOULD BE MOVING
FAST ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY FLASH FLOODING. OVERALL WILL LEAVE TRW
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE AREAS OF VTU AND
SBA COUNTY MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE INDICATORS HINT AT POSSIBLE
ACTIVITY OVER THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS BUT WILL KEEP CHANCES OUT FOR
NOW AND MONITOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WILL LIKELY GO AHEAD AND ADD TRW CHANCES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
THIS AFTERNOON`S UPDATE. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE
LIMITED...BUT MODELS FORECASTING THE UPPER LOW TO EJECT OUT OVER THE
AREA TOMORROW...SO MOISTURE DEFICIENCY SHOULD BE MADE UP FOR BY
BETTER DYNAMICS. AT FIRST GLANCE BELIEVE BETTER CHANCE WILL AGAIN BE
OVER VTU AND SBA COUNTY MOUNTAINS DUE TO THAT AREA`S RELATIVELY
BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...BUT DYNAMICS APPEAR BETTER SOUTH OVER
LA COUNTY. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK THIS AFTERNOON. THE MORNING`S
MARINE LAYER STRATUS WILL BE A TRICKY FORECAST SO PERSISTENCE LOOKS
TO BE THE BEST OPTION.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

LATEST FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATED PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS N OF POINT CONCEPTION...WHILE LOW
CLOUDS WERE MORE RANDOM IN NATURE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD FILL IN ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS OF
LOS ANGELES...VENTURA AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES BY DAWN. THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL LIFT TO CAUSE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE TO OCCUR JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. LATEST ACARS
SOUNDING NEAR LAX SHOWED A VERY WEAK INVERSION IN PLACE WHICH MAKES
SENSE WHY CLOUDS ARE NOT MORE UNIFORM S OF POINT CONCEPTION THIS
MORNING. WIND PATTERNS ARE INTERESTING THIS MORNING. OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS INTO LA COUNTY THE FLOW IS MOSTLY CYCLONIC NW BECOMING
SW OVER LA COUNTY. HOWEVER...NORTHERLY WINDS WERE OCCURRING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW WAS CAUSING
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TO PILE UP ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE LOCAL
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING INCLUDING THE I-5 CORRIDOR.

SYNOPTICALLY...A CLOSED 578 DM UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CENTRAL
COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH JUST WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW FAVORABLE COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER MOST OF LOS ANGELES...VENTURA AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES TODAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW...BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY LOW CLOUDS LINGERING
ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST COASTAL AREAS. RAP AND NAM-WRF MODELS
INDICATED THAT THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIMITED MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES DIRECTLY OVER SBA/VENTURA
COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS NOT MUCH DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW FOR SATURDAY AND MODELS WERE NOT PICKING UP ON
ANY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OR CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ACROSS THE LOCAL
MOUNTAINS. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS LOOK CLOSER TO SEE IF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WILL BE NEEDED FOR SAT IN THE LOCAL MTNS ONCE AGAIN.EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS TO BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL FILL IN AND MOVE NE INTO NEVADA
ALLOWING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS TO RISE. THERE WILL BE NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS BUT A QUICKER BURNOFF AND HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR
LOCATIONS...WITH WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE MID 80S...AND MID
TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF STAY IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE MUCH OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA REMAIN
UNDER A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THROUGH WED. EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
LOW CLOUDS FOR COASTAL AREAS AND POSSIBLY SOME COASTAL VALLEYS
THROUGH WED MORNING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 90S ACROSS WARMEST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. FOR WED AND THU...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG
FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS IS SHOWING A SHARPER TROUGH WHICH WOULD MEAN
MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING BY THURSDAY...WHERE THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS
LESS PRONOUNCED. AT THIS POINT HAVE TRENDED HIGH TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY
FOR WED...WITH A FEW MORE DEGREES OF COOLING FOR THURSDAY TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.AVIATION...19/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF POINT
CONCEPTION WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BECOME MODERATE SOUTHWEST BY 21/00Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME MODERATE SOUTHEAST AFTER 20/08Z OVER THE
AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 19/23-20/03Z OVER VENTURA AND
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS WITH TOPS 45KFT AND STORMS WILL MOVE
NORTH APPROXIMATELY 15KT. LOW LEVEL CLOUD TOPS WERE APPROXIMATELY
3KFT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TO 3KFT OVER THE BIGHT. THE CAPPING
INVERSION WAS WEAK AND WILL LIKELY DIFFER LITTLE SATURDAY MORNING
FROM THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD FIELD WAS DISORGANIZED...BROKEN OVER
THE BIGHT AND SCATTERED ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE DISORGANIZED SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BECOMING MODERATE ONSHORE AFTER 20/19Z.

KLAX...LIKELY SCATTERED 035 BY 19/20Z. CHANCE CIGS 015 BETWEEN
20/09-20/17Z AND CIGS 027 BETWEEN 20/17-20/19Z.

KBUR...LIKELY SCATTERED 025 BY 19/20Z. CHANCE CIGS 017 BY 20/10Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY - 80-95%
LIKELY - 60-80%
CHANCE - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY - 20% OR LESS

.MARINE...19/900 AM.
THERE IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND END
LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
REDEVELOP EACH EVENING AND EXIST SEVERAL HOURS EACH DAY
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO GALES THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN
ISLANDS TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND. A MIXED WEST NORTHWEST SWELL AND
SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AND LINGER THROUGH
SATURDAY. SWELLS ORIGINATING FROM A FAST MOVING AND SHORT LIVED GULF
OF ALASKA STORM ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SUNDAY FROM
295-305. THERE IS A CHANCE THE SWELL WILL PEAK SUNDAY NIGHT AND
LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEXT WEEK MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND
GUIDANCE HAD TRENDED DEEPER WITH THE SYSTEM. SWELLS GENERATED BY
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM 300-310 DEGREES
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND PEAK THURSDAY AND LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

PUBLIC...JACKSON/KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA

950 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.AVIATION...19/1145Z.
DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE WITH VERY WEAK INVERSION. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL LINGER. EXPECT
WDSPRD STRATUS WITH MOSTLY MVFR CONDS AGAIN TONIGHT/SAT MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT CIGS WILL LINGER THRU THE DAY.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL LINGER THRU THE DAY.

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

PUBLIC...JACKSON/KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB/30
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA

445 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LATEST FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATED
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS N OF
POINT CONCEPTION...WHILE LOW CLOUDS WERE MORE RANDOM IN NATURE FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD FILL IN ACROSS
COAST AND VALLEYS OF LOS ANGELES...VENTURA AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES BY DAWN. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL LIFT TO CAUSE SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE TO OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. LATEST ACARS SOUNDING NEAR LAX SHOWED A VERY WEAK
INVERSION IN PLACE WHICH MAKES SENSE WHY CLOUDS ARE NOT MORE UNIFORM
S OF POINT CONCEPTION THIS MORNING. WIND PATTERNS ARE INTERESTING
THIS MORNING. OVER THE COASTAL AREAS INTO LA COUNTY THE FLOW IS
MOSTLY CYCLONIC NW BECOMING SW OVER LA COUNTY. HOWEVER...NORTHERLY
WINDS WERE OCCURRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. THIS
NORTHERLY FLOW WAS CAUSING ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TO PILE UP ALONG THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING INCLUDING THE
I-5 CORRIDOR.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT CIGS WILL LINGER THRU THE DAY.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL LINGER THRU THE DAY.

.MARINE...19/300 AM
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE
OUTER WATERS THRU LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH WINDS MAY DROP BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS FROM MID MORNING THRU EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ACRS
WRN SECTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE EVENING.

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA

300 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...WILL BE UPDATED WITH 12Z TAFS.

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

813 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

EARLIER CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS DECREASING IN
INTENSITY BUT IT IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST ONTO THE NEARBY ADJACENT
PLAINS. THE MAIN AREA OF EVENING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL
LIKELY HOLD ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR...SO HAVE
ALREADY ADJUSTED FORECAST FOR HIGHER POPS PARK COUNTY/SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS/DOUGLAS COUNTY AREA...AND LOWER POPS NORTHWARD TOWARD
FORT COLLINS. AT BEST WOULD SEE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS THERE. THE
EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS COULD VERY WELL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE DURING
THE POST MIDNIGHT HOURS BUT THEN REDEVELOP AGAIN TOWARD EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY AS NEXT BATCH OF LIFT/MOIST PLUME REACHES THE
FORECAST AREA.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MDLS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP THE AIRMASS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. FOR
THIS EVENING...THE LATEST HRRR APPEARS TO KEEP ANY DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF DENVER. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS TOO DRY AND STABLE ELSEWHERE TO SUPPORT ANY DEEP
CONVECTION. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN COLORADO
TONIGHT...WITH LOW LEVEL ESELY SFC WINDS. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
OVER SWRN NV SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO NERN NV BY
00X MONDAY. THE QG ASCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WEAK BUT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB BACK OVER AN INCH. WITH THE
COOLER AMS IN PLACE...LIMITED HEATING COUPLED WITH WEAK FORCING
ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS VS THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. WL CONTINUE WITH SCT-LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

NOT A LOT OF DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DURING THE PERIOD.
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY WEST OF LOS ANGELES IS PREDICTED TO LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH PASSING EAST OF THE
STATE TUESDAY MORNING. THE RESULT OF THIS IS A QUANTITATIVELY
MODEST BUT DEEP AND PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUASIGEOSTROPHIC ASCENT
OVER MOST OF THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS ASCENT SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. CONSEQUENTLY EVERYONE SHOULD HAVE A SHOT AT SOME
PRECIPITATION AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 1.00 INCH WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH
MODERATE CAPE VALUES AROUND AT TIMES THE THREAT OF SOME HEAVY
SHOWERS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. AT PRESENT HOWEVER IT IS DIFFICULT TO
SINGLE OUT ANY PARTICULAR AREA FOR ANY ENHANCED FLOODING THREAT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 812 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EVENING STORMS SHOULD HOLD JUST SOUTH OF KDEN
AND KBJC BUT VCTS STILL POSSIBLE TIL AROUND 06Z. KAPA ON THE
OTHER HAND WILL SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS TIL AROUND
06Z...THEN LOOK FOR A DECREASE OF SHOWERS. NEXT BATCH COULD BE IN
TOWARD 12Z-15Z SUNDAY. CEILINGS LOOK A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST SO WILL BE ADJUSTING THOSE DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH CEILINGS
POSSIBLY LOWERING TO AROUND 5000 FT AGL.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

949 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE EXPECTED
VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...WITH MOST AREAS DRY AND RATHER
MILD BY SUN AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPS START OFF COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MODERATE TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

945 PM UPDATE...

TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF THE CAROLINA AND MID ATLC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD BETWEEN WESTERN ATLC SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES.
SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES OFF THE MID
ATLC ALONG WITH SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE MID 70S! 00Z OBSERVED UPPER
AIR SOUNDING FROM OKX ON LONG ISLAND INDICATES COLUMN IS FAIRLY
MOIST BELOW 700 MB.

THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DESPITE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WEAK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT AS
CONVECTION FIRES EAST OF NJ. THUS WEAK FORCING BUT COUPLED WITH
INSTABILITY ALOFT AND PWATS CLIMBING TO +1 STD ABOVE CLIMO MAY
YIELD SOME TROPICAL DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT ACROSS CT AND INTO WEST-
CENTRAL MA AFTER 06Z. AFTER 12Z SHOWERS MAY MOVE EASTWARD INTO RI
AND EASTERN MA. 12Z ECMWF AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP13
APPEAR TO BE SIMULATING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL THRU 01Z.
THEREFORE WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY AND ALSO MATCHES UP WELL WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

RAP13 HAS STORM TOTAL QPF UP TO 0.60 INCHES BY 18Z ACROSS CT AND
WEST-CENTRAL MA. OBVIOUSLY LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE TROPICAL CONNECTION AND WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT
MAY YIELD EMBEDDED TSTMS. EARLIER DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

A SHORTWAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE A 30 TO 40 KNOT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...TRANSPORTING DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BURST OF
INSTABILITY AND A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST. TIMING LOOKS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 6Z AND 15Z. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE MARGINAL...BUT THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH ELEVATED CAPE FOR A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXTREMELY
LOW SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS/0 TO 1 KM HELICITY AROUND 100...AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE....CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST SUNDAY MORNING. AGAIN THOUGH...THAT APPEARS TO BE A
VERY LOW PROBABILITY BUT SOMETHING WILL NEED TO WATCH.

THE STEADY AND HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GIVEN LIMITED
BAROCLINICITY/FRONTOGENESIS. HOWEVER...IT STILL MAY SCRAPE THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR A TIME WHERE PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES
SO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

IN A NUTSHELL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A SOAKING
RAIN BY ANY MEANS...BUT A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST IF THE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
CAN MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE...MOST OF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRY WITH JUST A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND THE
REGION...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WHERE
SHOWERS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER.

LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALLOWING WINDS TO DECOUPLE. LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S AND IT WILL FEEL A BIT
HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S!

LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. A LOT OF
MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ALONG THE FRONT. THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE SUN AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. MOST
OF SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY IN A GIVEN LOCATION. LOW TEMPS WILL
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

*LOW CHANCE SHOWERS MON. THEN DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK
*COOL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK...MODERATING BY WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TROUGH DRAPED OVER
THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AS TIME GOES ON AND THE UPPER LEVEL MOVES NORTH INTO
CANADA. GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE ENSEMBLE NAO AND AO TELECONNECTION
FORECASTS TO STAY IN THE POSITIVE PHASES. THE PNA LOOKS TO START
POSITIVE AND GO NEUTRAL AS TIME GOES ON...BUT THEN MODELS DIVERGE IN
THEIR OUTPUTS AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALLOWS FOR SOME SPREAD.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...THE MORNING BEGINS WITH A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT IS
FIGHTING WITH SOME DRY MIDLEVELS ALLOWING SOME OF THE PRECIP TO DRY
UP. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG MIXING OCCURS UP
TO AROUND 850 MB WHERE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS EXIST SO GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. 850 MB TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE
AROUND 10C SO MID TO UPPER 70S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE.
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS WON/T GET THAT HIGH AS THE FRONT CROSS THROUGH
TOO EARLY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG 1035 MB
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES INTO THE REGION WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT. DRY
WEATHER WILL ALSO PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THINK THE
ECMWF MAY HAVE IT TOO FAR NORTH WHILE THE 6Z GFS HAS IT FURTHER
SOUTH. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS JET WILL GIVE US WHEN CIRRUS
CLOUDS MOVE NORTH FROM MOISTURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST US. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE UPPER JET UP NORTH SO BETTER
CHANCE FOR COOLING TEMPS AT NIGHT ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT
DRY SPELL WE/VE BEEN HAVING. IN PERIODS OF ONSHORE WINDS...FOG COULD
OCCUR.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

945 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 00Z TAFS. SOME HEAVY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE ACROSS CT AND WEST-CENTRAL MA. AFTER 12Z
SHOWERS MAY BLEED INTO RI AND EASTERN MA. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.

===================================================================

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 04Z.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO
OVER SPREAD THE REGION VERY LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY WORK INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS MAY HANG TOUGH THOUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG PATCHES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 04Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE AFTER 04Z.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD

VFR THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR ANY SHOWERS ON MONDAY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE MVFR COULD BE NEEDED. WINDS AROUND 10KTS
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 OR 25KTS IN PLACES. THESE
WINDS DIE OFF ON TUESDAY AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT 5
FOOT SEAS COULD DEVELOP FOR A TIME ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS...BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP WAVES JUST BELOW FOR NOW. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL AND PERHAPS THE NEED FOR A SHORT
FUSED SCA ADVISORY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...SWELL FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCA SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. SINCE ITS MAINLY 3RD PERIOD...WILL DEFER THE ISSUANCE
OF HEADLINES TO THE NEXT SHIFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT THE WATERS THIS MORNING. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

SEAS FROM 5 TO 8FT ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS...AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD FOR THE SWELLS.

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/99
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/99
MARINE...FRANK/99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

1013 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND
THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1031 MB SFC HIGH CENTERED JUST NORTH OF
MONTREAL. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD,
RESULTING IN A COOL NORTHEAST BREEZE THIS MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY. LOW-LEVEL WINDS AROUND THE HIGH WILL VEER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU CAN ALREADY BE SEEN NEAR THE NJ (AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT THE DE COAST) ON THE MID MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE,
WHICH IS A PROXY FOR WHERE THE MARINE LAYER HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED
AND FOR THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. BASED ON
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP GUIDANCE (WHICH HAS
INITIALIZED WELL WITH LOW-LEVEL RH FIELD), MARINE-LAYER STRATOCU
EXPECTED TO ADVECT INLAND AS FAR WEST AS EASTERN PA TODAY. MIXING
SHOULD BE DEEP ENOUGH ON LAND TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE COAST.

RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
WILL PRODUCE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
KEPT MEASURABLE PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST, BUT ADDED IN SPRINKLES
FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN NJ AND THE DELMARVA. THIS PORTION OF THE AREA
SHOULD BE LOCATED CLOSER TO THE GREATER LIFT AND MOISTURE RETURN.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP FORECAST BASED ON SKY COVER UPDATES.
MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
ALONG THE CENTRAL NJ COAST TO LOW/MID 70S SOUTHEAST PA AND THE
DELMARVA.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS AND ENDS WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW. MODELS, INCLUDING
STAT GUIDANCE, HAVE CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THIS LOOKS
REASONABLE. IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, SOME
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR UPSLOPE ZONES WEST OF THE DELAWARE
VALLEY AND LOCALES ALONG THE COAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUT NORTHWEST
ZONES AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY DRY DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH, THERE
IS NOT AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AROUND AND IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE WE
WILL SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.

RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP TO BRING IN
SOME MOISTER AND WARMER AIR. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE FRONTS PROGRESS APPEARS TO BE ON THE SLOW SIDE
AND IT LIKELY WONT REACH THE REGION UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY AND WON`T
FULLY MOVE OFFSHORE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WE
HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THE INSTABILITY ISN`T TERRIBLY STRONG BUT IT IS
AVAILABLE AND WE CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO ACROSS THE REGION.
BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK ACROSS OUR AREA AS MAX
TEMPS REACH INTO THE 80S. BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S. WHERE SKIES START TO
CLEAR A BIT MORE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS, WE COULD
SEE TEMPS DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S.

MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND WE
SHOULD SEE SOME DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVING IN ON THE NORTHWEST
FLOW. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CLEAR QUICKLY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND 8-12 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE REGION. MOST AREAS WILL SEE
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FEEL
CONSIDERABLY COLDER, WITH MOST PLACE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 40S,
WITH SOME 50S POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST.

TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY. THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION AND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER PRETTY DRY WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND MAY SPARK OFF A FEW SHOWERS. FOR
NOW, WE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS THE SOUNDINGS LOOK PRETTY
DRY.

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING 10-15 KT WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST NEAR 20
KT FROM THE PHILLY TERMINALS SOUTH AND EAST. GRADIENT FLOW WEAKENS A
BIT THIS AFTN AS WINDS VEER OUT OF THE EAST. MARINE AIRMASS WILL
MOVE INLAND AS WELL WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. NEEDED TO
UPDATE 12Z TAFS FOR A FEW LOCATIONS AS STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED SOONER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURING THE AFTN
AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT ACY, WHERE MARINE AIR IS MORE ESTABLISHED.

TONIGHT...WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW, LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS CAN
BE EXPECTED. FOR NOW WE`LL DROP THINGS DOWN TO MVFR, 1500-2500 FT.
SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS KABE, KRDG, KACY, AND
KMIV. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST, BUT LIGHTEN UP A BIT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY. LOWER VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON MONDAY...LESS WINDY ON TUESDAY.

.MARINE...
BOTH BUOY 44065 AND 44025 ARE FINALLY BACK IN SERVICE!

NORTHEAST WIND SURGE HAS ADVANCED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING, REACHING ATLANTIC CITY BY 10 AM WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.
HAVE EXPANDED SCA TO INCLUDE LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG
INLET. SCA ALREADY IN EFFECT TODAY FOR MARINE ZONES FARTHER
NORTH. WINDS WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE A BIT TO BELOW SCA THRESHOLD
DURING THE AFTN BUT SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF SCA CONDITIONS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...ALSO MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE GRIDS. WE`VE BACKED OFF OF
HEADLINES AND HAVE DELAYED THE SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS. ACROSS
THE NORTHERN WATERS, WE`LL HAVE THE SCA RUN THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. LOOKS
LIKE A LOWER END SCA WITH WINDS TOPPING OUT AROUND 20 KT AND SEAS 5
FT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...SEAS LOOK TO BE ELEVATED HEADING THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY START TO SUBSIDE INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME. IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOR A PERIOD UNTIL SEAS FALL BELOW
5 FEET. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN ADDITION, WINDS AND WAVES WILL
START TO INCREASE AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION.

.RIP CURRENTS...
WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS STILL PRESENT TODAY, A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
AND INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS, IN HOUSE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
A MODERATE RISK TODAY FOR NJ AND DE.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ452.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ453>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...KLEIN/KRUZDLO/MEOLA
MARINE...KLEIN/KRUZDLO/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...KRUZDLO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MIAMI FL

743 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE 2...
LOW PRESSURE OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT PUSHING A WEAK COLD
FRONT INTO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THIS WILL KEEP THE STEERING FLOW IN A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TONIGHT
ALONG WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT BEEN OCCURRING OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED OVER THE AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL BE REMOVED FROM
THE MAINLAND AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TONIGHT...BUT WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR
AREAS LATE TONIGHT DUE TO THE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE FOG TO MOVE
NORTHEAST AND COULD MOVE INTO THE METRO AREAS OF BROWARD AND PALM
BEACH COUNTIES BY SUNRISE. THEREFORE...PATCHY FOG WORDING HAS
BEEN ADDED FOR THE INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG WITH THE
METRO AREAS OF BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES FOR LATE TONIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WE EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND FOCUSING ACROSS THE EAST
COAST, SO HAVE PLACED TSRA PROB`S FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS SUN
AFTERNOON AND VCTS FOR KAPF. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME SW 5-10 KT AT KAPF AND KTMB SUN AFTERNOON AND SE 5-10 KT FOR
THE OTHER TERMINALS. /GREGORIA

&&
.UPDATED 2...BNB/54
.AVIATION...DFG/57

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

UPDATE...
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA HAVE PUSHED INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONLY AREA THAT COULD STILL SEE
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS OVER MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AS THIS
AREA HAS NOT BEEN WORK OVER YET TODAY. THEREFORE...THE POPS HAVE
BEEN LOWERED OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEAST
AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE SCATTERED POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...THE POPS HAVE ALSO
BEEN RAISED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE FOR THE ON GOING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

&&
UPDATED...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE SUN CAME OUT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE REGION...AND TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO GET BRIEFLY INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE BEGINNING
TO FILL IN ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS...AND NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED STREET
FLOODING FOR THE EAST COAST METROS. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY THIS EVENING
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT FOR THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE NAPLES REGION. THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BUT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA WILL REMAIN STATIONARY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH
PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES. WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL ALSO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW MID LEVEL IMPULSES SLIGHTLY DETACHED
FROM THE PARENT 500MB SHORTWAVE WELL TO THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED TO
SLIDE TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR. THIS SHOULD
ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA FOR THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON.

A MORE EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN RETURNS TUESDAY AND SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL EACH DAY WITH MODELS DEPICTING THE
DEEP MOISTURE AXIS REMAINING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. MODEL SOUNDINGS
DEPICT PWAT VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 1.75-2.00 INCHES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE DEEP MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CLOUD COVER
ALONG WITH AN OVERALL LACK OF DYNAMICS SHOULD KEEP THE STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LIMITED.

AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WSW FLOW
WILL FOCUS THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY TOWARD THE EAST COAST SITES
THROUGH THIS TIME TODAY. THE FLOW SHOULD PROVE TO BE TOO STRONG
FOR THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO SET UP...WHICH IS REFLECTED WELL IN
THE LATEST HRRR RUN THAT INDICATES THE ACTIVITY PUSHING THROUGH
AND OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. 85/AG

MARINE...
GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST. A MORE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL THEN SET UP
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT AROUND 3 FEET
OR LESS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 73 88 75 86 / 10 50 20 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 74 88 78 87 / 10 60 20 60
MIAMI 74 88 77 87 / 10 60 20 60
NAPLES 75 87 75 86 / 10 50 20 60

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....84/AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSONVILLE FL

240 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...UNSETTLED WET PATTERN WITH COOLER TEMPS THROUGH SAT...

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT...

RADAR LOOP DEPICTED THE DYNAMIC WEATHER PATTERN WELL WITH LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW PUSHING SFC BASED CONVECTION FROM THE ATLANTIC
WESTWARD...WHILE A STREAM OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST WAS
BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATIFORM RAINFALL FROM GNV TO PALM
COAST SOUTHWARD. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WAS INCREASING AS AN UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUE TO DIG OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...WHILE
SHALLOW ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS BRINGING LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER OUR SOUTHERN FL ZONES. SHALLOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM THE ESE AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT LATEST HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH
INDICATED ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY FROM
GAINESVILLE NORTHWARD WITH ISOLATED TSTORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG
DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR AHEAD OF STRONG DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE GULF COAST REGION. STRONG STORMS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND EVEN HAIL. FARTHER SOUTH...A LIGHT TO
MODERATE STRATIFORM RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE WITH EMBEDDED TSTORMS
POSSIBLE.

THIS EVENING PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NW TO SE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS FURTHER AND INDUCES SFC LOW PRESSURE TO
DEEPEN OVER S FL AND THEN OFFSHORE OF THE SE FL ATLANTIC COAST. THIS
WILL OCCUR AS A SFC RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO NUDGED FARTHER SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND OVER N GA. THIS SCENARIO WILL
INCREASE ENE FLOW AND COASTAL CONVERGENCE ALONG OUR LOCAL
COASTLINE...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING WAVES OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE LOCAL COASTLINE EARLY SAT MORNING.
ADVERTISED 60% ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT...FALLING TO LESS THAN 10%
WEST OF TRAIL RIDGE. TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
COAST...TO UPPER 60S INLAND UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OFF THE EAST CENTRAL FL COAST EARLY SATURDAY.
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE THE RAIN ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW LIFT NE TO THE CAROLINA COAST. DRIER
AIR WILL ADVECT INTO SE GA SUNDAY WITH MOIST AXIS AND CHANCE OF
SHOWERS PERSISTING OVER NE FL. ON MONDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH INTO S GA BRINGING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
WILL BE REINFORCED ON WEDNESDAY AS A 1035 MB HIGH DROPS SE FROM
CANADA INTO NEW ENGLAND. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER TROUGHING COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. POPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION...
RAIN ALONG A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT GNV
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TERMINALS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL SEE IMPACTS
FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. EXPECT
BRIEF BOUTS OF GUSTY WINDS AND IFR/MVFR VIS AND CEILINGS. SOME LOW
CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE HEADING INTO TOMORROW MORNING BUT WE WILL
WAIT TO ADDRESS THOSE IN THE NEXT PACKAGE WHEN THERE IS MORE
CONFIDENCE.

.MARINE...EAST WINDS 10-15 KTS PREVAILED THIS AFTN WITH SEAS 3 FT OR
LESS. AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER S FL AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE FL
ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...ENE FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE GA WATERS.
THERE WAS STILL MODEL DISCREPANCY WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND
RESULTANT NE SURGE DOWN THE LOCAL COASTLINE...WITH THE NAM12 MUCH
STRONGER COMPARED TO THE GFS. THUS USED A MODEL BLEND WHICH YIELDED
PREVAILING SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT N OF
ST AUGUSTINE. PLAN TO RAISE A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE
WATERS N OF ST AUGUSTINE DIVISION FOR WINDS 15-20 KTS. IF NAM12 PANS
OUT AND THE LOW DEEPENS FURTHER...A LAST MINUTE ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR OFFSHORE WINDS FOR WINDS 20-25 KTS. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM
2-4 FT TONIGHT TO 4-6 FT OFFSHORE LEGS LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUN WHILE WEAKENING AS THE SFC LOW
EJECTS NE OF THE LOCAL WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.RIP CURRENTS...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH A MODERATE RISK EXPECTED.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 69 83 66 86 / 20 50 40 10
SSI 73 80 71 82 / 60 70 70 30
JAX 70 82 68 84 / 50 70 60 20
SGJ 73 81 71 81 / 60 70 60 40
GNV 67 83 66 85 / 40 50 50 40
OCF 68 83 67 86 / 70 40 40 40

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

ENYEDI/ZIBURA/WALSH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

1110 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MORNING CAPE SOUNDING SHOWS SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WITH NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR STILL IN PLACE
BETWEEN 5K AND 10K FT...FOR NOW. THE 13KM RUC SHOWS LARGE AREA OF
UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW AT 250 MB SUPPORTING CONVECTION OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS UPPER SUPPORT WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TODAY AND PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS AS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING CONTINUES. A BETTER CHANCE FOR DEEP
CONVECTION (THUNDER) WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHERE SOME
HEATING HAS TAKEN PLACE THIS MORNING THROUGH A THINNER CANOPY OF
CIRRUS. BUT CONTINUED MOISTENING OF THE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH FORCED
ASCENT WILL PRODUCE INCREASED MULTI LAYERED CLOUDINESS...BECOMING
OVERCAST EVEN ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON MAX
TEMPS WHICH SHOULD HOLD IN THE MID 80S MOST AREAS.

AS LIGHT RAIN BREAKS OUT ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS AND PUSHES
EASTWARD...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PUSH WEST FROM THE ATLC AND ONSHORE
IN AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL E/NE FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF TROUGH
AXIS STRETCHING FROM SOUTH FL ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.

TONIGHT...AS THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE JUST OFF THE SEFL
COAST... CONTINUED ASCENT ALOFT...INCREASING LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC/CONVGT FLOW NEAR/ALONG THE COAST COUPLED WITH WRAP BACK
MOISTURE AND THE NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN MARINE INSTABILITY SHOULD
RESULT IN DECENT CHC FOR POPS...ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS WELL
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE MAY BE ONE OR MORE BANDS OF RAIN
THAT DEVELOP FROM THE ATLC ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COAST THAT
PROVIDES PERIODS OF (LOCALLY) HEAVY RAIN. VERY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
WHERE THAT COULD OCCUR BUT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE VOLUSIA AND/OR
BREVARD COASTS APPEARS FAVORED.

.AVIATION...
INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH TS COVERAGE
LIKELY TO BE ISOLD DUE TO THICKENING CLOUD COVER LIMITING SFC
HEATING ESP NORTHERN TERMINALS. 12Z TAF PACKAGE DID NOT INCLUDE VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN WHAT WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AND PSBLY SOME
HEAVIER EMBEDDED CONVECTION MAINLY MLB SOUTHWARD. WILL INDICATE
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AT COASTAL TERMINALS DAB/MLB/VRB TONIGHT.

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT COASTAL WATERS FORECAST.
DECAYING LONG PD SWELL (NOW DOWN TO 10-11 SEC) FROM VERY DISTANT
T.S. EDOUARD WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING WIND CHOP ON NORTH SIDE OF
DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH/LOW OFF OUR SE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. E/NE
FLOW NEAR 15 KNOTS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 4FT OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 83 72 86 71 / 60 50 50 30
MCO 85 71 87 70 / 60 40 50 30
MLB 84 74 85 71 / 70 50 60 30
VRB 84 72 87 70 / 70 50 60 30
LEE 84 70 88 71 / 60 40 40 30
SFB 85 70 88 72 / 60 40 50 30
ORL 85 71 87 72 / 60 40 50 30
FPR 85 73 86 69 / 70 50 60 30

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

KELLY/WEITLICH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

405 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING. MAIN NORTHERN
STREAM FLOW ARRIVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND RIDGES UP INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA OVER TOP A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FLOW THE DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS. OUR FORECAST AREA RESIDES
WITHING THE BASE OF THIS EASTERN CONUS TROUGH...AND IT WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE/ENERGY ROUNDING THE TROUGH BASE TODAY AND TONIGHT
THAT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERY AND CLOUDY WEATHER TO THE REGION TODAY.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN ON WV IMAGERY DROPPING
SOUTHEAST DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN MS
VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY
REACHING THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
FL PENINSULA. HOWEVER...THE SYNOPTIC LIFT IS AHEAD OF THE
FEATURE...SO EXPECTING SHOWERS TO ARRIVE LONG BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE
AXIS APPROACHES OUR VICINITY. AS THE ENERGY BEGINS TO ARRIVE OVER
THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...HAVE WATCHED CLOUD TOPS COOL THE PAST
FEW HOURS...WITH SHOWERS/AREAS LIGHT RAIN BREAKING OUT TO THE SOUTH
OF THE FL PANHANDLE PER EGLIN/TLH RADARS. MUCH OF THE REFLECTIVITY
HAS TENDED TO BE ALOFT SO FAR...BUT THE COLUMN IS QUICKLY MOISTENING
AND MORE AND MORE OF THIS WILL START TO REACH THE GROUND OVER THE
COMING HOURS. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THEIR HANDLING OF
THIS MORE NORTHERN PRECIP ZONE...HOWEVER LATEST RAP IS BEGINNING TO
CATCH ON...AND HAS BEEN BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS PRECIP PUSH
TOWARD THE NATURE COAST LATER THIS MORNING. MORE ABOUT THAT BELOW.

AT THE SURFACE...FORECAST AREA SITS BETWEEN A LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF/SOUTH FLORIDA. PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY RATHER LOOSE...WITH JUST A LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW...HOWEVER...AS THE ENERGY APPROACHES...A KINDA WEDGE EFFECT
TAKES PLACE ALLOWING THE SURFACE HIGH TO TRY AND WORK SOUTHWARD.
THIS RIDGING SOUTHWARD WORKS TO TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT OVER THE NE
GULF AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CURRENT LAND
BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG WITH SOME SLOW
INCREASE IN SYNOPTIC FORCING IS ALLOWING FOR SCT STORMS OFFSHORE
THIS MORNING...THESE ARE GENERALLY PROGRESSING SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. IT IS THE MORE SYNOPTIC SCALE ACTIVITY STILL
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF THAT WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE US OUR SHOWERS
LATER TODAY.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
NOT THE EASIEST OF FORECASTS IN TERMS OF ADDING A LOT OF SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL DETAIL TO THE RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT MOST PLACES WILL SEE SOME RAIN BEFORE THE DAY IS
THROUGH...HOWEVER...VERY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE ARE
RESULTING IN SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE PRECIP
PATTERNS. HAVE BEEN MENTIONING THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS...THAT IT WILL
WOULD SEEM VERY DIFFICULT THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THE FORCING
PROJECTED TO NOT SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS BREAKING OUT OF THE EASTERN
GULF AND ROLLING ONSHORE. THE GFS HAS AN INTERESTING SCENARIO FROM A
NWP PERSPECTIVE WHERE IT SHOWS MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP OF THE STABLE
VARIETY INTO THE NATURE COAST...AND MAINLY PRECIP FROM THE
CONVECTIVE SCHEMES FURTHER SOUTH. NOW...THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT RAISES QUESTIONS
ABOUT WHETHER THE ACTUAL MOISTURE SURGE NORTHWARD IS BEING
ARTIFICIALLY SUPPRESSED BY THIS NWP CONVECTIVE PROCESS. THIS MIGHT
ACCOUNT FOR WHY SOME OF THE OTHER MEMBERS ARE STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE
PRECIP INTO THE NATURE COAST...AND IF TRUE SHOULD SUGGEST A WETTER
DAY UP THERE THAN HAS BEEN PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS WAS MENTIONED ABOVE
THE LATEST RAP SEEMS TO BE GRABBING ONTO THE PRECIP TRENDS OFF THE
FL PANHANDLE AND IS CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION FOR MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE NATURE COAST TO THE NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. WILL TREND
TOWARD MORE SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AND SHOW LIKELY POPS FOR ALL OF
OUR NORTHERN ZONES.

SO LETS BREAK IT DOWN...DECENT LATE SEPT SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NW TODAY. DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ARRIVES AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A FAIRLY DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER
THE PENINSULA. THIS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE FED BY MODEST BUT
DEEP LAYER ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BETWEEN THE 300-315K SURFACES. THE
UPGLIDE IS CERTAINLY NOT STRONG...BUT IT IS THERE. THE RESULT IS A
MOSTLY CLOUDY FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE...BUT ALL IN ALL...NOT GOING FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF THUNDER ACTIVITY. SHOWALTER INDICES ARE ALL ABOVE ZERO...AND
WELL ABOVE ZERO TO THE NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. IF WE ARE GOING TO SEE
ANY STORMS THAT WOULD FIT THE BILL OF "FREQUENT LIGHTNING" IT SHOULD
BE DOWN TOWARD SARASOTA COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD. SHOWALTER INDICES
THIS FAR SOUTH ARE POSITIVE...BUT IN THE RANGE OF 1-3 RANGE...WHICH
SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED.

SO...NOT EXPECTING IT TO RAIN ALL DAY IN ANY PARTICULAR PLACE...BUT
RATHER BE ON THE PERIODIC SIDE. LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH MORE CONVECTIVE TYPE PRECIP SOUTH OF
TAMPA BAY THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...GENERALLY EXPECTING TOTALS OF
LESS THAN 1/2 INCH. THE CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN WILL HOWEVER KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN. MAXED OUT TEMPS IN THE 80S TODAY...AND WHERE THE
SHOWERS START EARLY...GETTING TEMPS OUT OF THE LOWER 80S MIGHT BE A
CHALLENGE.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE FORECAST DOES NOT GET ANY EASIER. THE BEST
SYNOPTIC FORCING CERTAINLY EXITS TO OUR EAST...HOWEVER...THE UPPER
TROUGH TENDS TO CLOSE OFF ALONG THE SE CONUS COAST AND LINGER BACK
SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE WARM
WATERS OF THE OCEAN MEANS SCT SHOWERS COULD POP UP JUST ABOUT ANY
TIME. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST PREVALENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT ANY DAYTIME HEATING DURING
SATURDAY...AND THE SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BURST FORTH ACROSS
THE PENINSULA AS WELL. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE
ON SATURDAY. THIS IS A SITUATION WHERE MORE BREAKS OF SUN MAY LEAD
TO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IF
THIS TERRESTRIAL HEATING LEADS TO A WEAK SEA-BREEZE...AS SUGGESTED
BY THE NAM. PLAYED IT DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH CHANCE POPS
40-50% FOR SATURDAY. THESE NUMBERS COULD EASILY BE HIGHER ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...AND WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT RE-EVALUATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
DIURNAL HEATING AND AND INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...
THE PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHERE A BROAD CLOSED LOW WAS OFF
THE COAST. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A
LOW EAST OF THE SC/GA COAST TRAILED A TROUGH THAT REACHED ACROSS FL
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF.

THROUGH MON...THE UPPER RIDGE ROTATES AROUND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. THE UPPER LOW AND IT/S SURFACE
REFLECTION TRACKS NORTHWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC ALTHOUGH THE
TRAILING TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS FL AND THE BAHAMAS. THE COLD FRONT
DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST STATES AS THE PLAINS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE GREAT LAKES.

FOR TUE THROUGH THU...THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST BUT WEAKENING
TROUGHINESS LINGERS DOWN THE EASTERN SEA BOARD THROUGH WED. THE
SURFACE HIGH SLIPS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND COASTAL
AREAS WITH THE COLD FRONT CONTINUING A SOUTHWARD TREK DOWN FL
AS IT RUNS OUT OF ENERGY AND SLOWS CONSIDERABLY.

THE FORECAST...THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT
ALTHOUGH THE GFS DIVERGES ON THE LAST DAY WITH A ROBUST INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE FL/GA/SC COAST. FOR NOW HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS
AND USED A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE MOST PART. THE LINGERING TROUGH
THEN THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE SHOWERS AND STORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT THE ATMOSPHERE QUICKLY MOISTENS BACK
UP. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LOWS
WHILE THE HIGHS ARE WITH IN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL.

.AVIATION...
TAFS ARE VFR THIS MORNING AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS INTO THE MIDDLE MORNING HOURS. THEREAFTER EXPECTING SCT
TO NMRS SHOWERS TO ARRIVE AT ALL TERMINALS. CLOUD BASES WILL BE
LOWERING...BUT DO NOT EXPECT A WIDESPREAD MVFR EVENT FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS. BETTER CHANCES FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE NOT INCLUDED
MENTION IN THE TAFS QUITE YET...BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY.

.MARINE...
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTH AND A SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH. THE EASTERLY FLOW MAY
APPROACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS AT TIMES LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD. IN ADDITION NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
TODAY. WINDS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT COVERAGE
AND DURATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

NO SIGNIFICANT FOG EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHT...HOWEVER PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TO THE NORTH OF I-4.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 87 72 86 73 / 70 30 40 40
FMY 88 72 86 72 / 80 50 50 40
GIF 87 70 87 71 / 80 30 50 50
SRQ 87 72 84 72 / 80 40 40 40
BKV 86 68 87 68 / 60 20 50 50
SPG 86 74 86 75 / 80 30 40 40

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DSS...RUDE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

325 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...WEAK LOW TO DEVELOP OFF OUR SE COAST TONIGHT/SATURDAY...

CURRENT...QSTNRY FRONT LIES NEAR THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA BORDER EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS FARTHER SOUTH...
EXTENDING FROM OFFSHORE FMY TO JUST NORTH OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.
WATER VAPOR AND RUC IMAGERY SHOW CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...WITH A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS...FROM MS/AL THRU INTO THE APPALACHIAN
SPINE...DROPPING SE TWD THE STATE. STATEWIDE RADAR MOSAIC STARTED
OFF FAIRLY QUIET...HOWEVER PROLIFERATION OF MARINE CONVECTION HAS
BEEN ONGOING...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF ECFL. ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN AIDED BY INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT/WEAKLY DVGT H25 FLOW.

TODAY/TONIGHT...
THE WELL-ADVERTISED DEVELOPMENT OF THE TRANSIENT POSITIVE TILT
CUTOFF MID LEVEL LOW AND ATTENDANT SURFACE WAVE/LOW FORMATION OFF
TO OUR E-SE REMAINS ON TAP FOR THE SHORT RANGE. 00Z MODEL RAOBS
INDICATE SIGNIFICANT "TOP-DOWN" MOISTENING OF THE LOCAL AIR
MASS...WHICH WILL VERY LIKELY LIMIT INSOLATION AND KEEP MAX TEMPS
DOWN MOSTLY IN THE L-M80S FOR MOST AREAS. INCREASING FORCED ASCENT
SHOULD RESULT IN BREAKOUT OF LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED WEAK
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING. AS THE LOW
BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE JUST OFF THE SEFL COAST TONIGHT...CONTINUED
ASCENT ALOFT...INCREASING LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC/CONVGT FLOW NEAR/ALONG
THE COAST COUPLED WITH WRAP BACK MOISTURE AND THE NOCTURNAL INCREASE
IN MARINE INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN DECENT CHC FOR POPS...
ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SAT-SUN...
BOTH THE 19/00Z GFS AND 18/12Z ECMWF SIMILAR IN SHOWING AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER TIER OF THE U.S. CATCHING THE
CLOSED LOW EAST OF FLORIDA AND JUST NORTH OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND
LIFTING IT NORTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN CANADA. ENOUGH
MOISTURE PRESENT SATURDAY AND A VORT MAX PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LIFT
AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL REGIONS TO PRODUCE LIKELY...60 POP... RAIN CHANCES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CHANCE...30-50 POP NORTH TO SOUTH...ON SUNDAY
AS MOISTURE RIBBON SLIDES DOWN THE STATES INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
HIGHS MID AND UPPER 80S BOTH DAYS. LOWS SUN AND MON MORNING LOW 70S
EXCEPT UPPER 60S WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 INDIAN RIVER TO MARTIN AND
WEST ACROSS SOUTH OSCEOLA AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES.

MON...
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA.
THE STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH PUSHES MOISTURE BACK
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE MOISTURE RETURN IS ENOUGH TO PUT 50 POP
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND RAIN CHANCES DECREASING TO AROUND 30
PERCENT ORLANDO AND NORTH. SOUTHWEST FLOW HELPS TO PUSH AFTERNOON
HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 90S EXCEPT RIGHT AT THE COAST AND DOWN WIND OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

TUE-THU...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. AND RIDGES
SOUTH ACROSS FLORIDA RESULTING IN AN EASTERLY FLOW TUE AND WED. ON
THU THE GFS APPEARS AS IF IT MAY BE OVERDONE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SHARP INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE FL EAST COAST AND THE SERN SEABOARD
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF FOR THE SAME MODEL RUN OF 19/00Z
SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER/DIFFUSE FEATURE. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL EXIST
FOR AT LEAST MID RANGE SCATTERED POPS WITH SHOWERS BEING DOMINANT
PRECIP TYPE...ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER CHC FOR TS...AS THE ECSB
WILL BE DIFFUSE/FAST MOVING IN A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW REGIME.

.AVIATION...INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH TS
COVERAGE LIKELY TO ISOLD DUE TO THICKENING CLOUD COVER LIMITING SFC
HEATING. 06Z PACKAGE DID NOT INCLUDE VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN WHAT WILL
BE MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AND PSBLY SOME HEAVIER EMBEDDED CONVECTION. AM
LEANING TWD PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS...MAINLY FROM VRB NWD LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.

.MARINE...TODAY/TONIGHT...DECAYING LONG PD (11-13S) SWELL FROM VERY
DISTANT T.S. EDOUARD WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING WIND CHOP ON NORTH
SIDE OF DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH/LOW OFF OUR SE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
AS SEAS BUILD SLIGHTLY TO 3-4FT AS PDS WILL SHORTEN...AND WAVE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS AT A TOSS UP W/R/T DOMINANT PDS. USED SORT OF A BLEND...
TRENDING FROM THE WNAWAVE HGTS/PDS EARLY TODAY...MORE TWD THE NWPS
MODEL FOR TONIGHT.

SAT-SUN...LOW EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA GIVES THE WINDS MORE OF
A NORTHERLY COMPONENT SAT SHIFTING TO THE WEST SUN AS THE LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM FLORIDA. ON SUN...THE WESTERLY WINDS SUN
LOOK LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW AN AFTERNOON TO FORM BUT STAY AT THE
COAST.

MON-TUE...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH BECOMES LIGHT AND
VARIABLE MON BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST TUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. RIDGES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO
FLORIDA.

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....WIMMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

248 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST SATURDAY.
DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION SUNDAY. A DRY FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE IN CONTROL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO
CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
BEGIN CUTTING OFF NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH OVER E
CANADA TO SHIFT EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND OFFSHORE WATERS ALLOWING
SOME RIDGING TO BUILD DOWN THE EAST COAST. MEANWHILE SURFACE WAVE
OFFSHORE TO DEVELOP SOME IN RESPONSE TO UPPER ENERGY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL E TO NE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.
SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES APPEAR TO BE IN PLAY. THE ONE THAT
PUSHED THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) THIS MORNING APPEARS TO BE
SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR FA NOW. ANOTHER BOUNDARY/DEWPOINT GRADIENT
IS NEAR THE NE FA...BEHIND WHICH DRIER AIR NOTED OVER CENT/E NC
AND NE SC. IT APPEARS DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE NE FA TODAY AND
PRECLUDE SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE. DISSIPATING CLOUDINESS ALLOWING
BETTER DIURNAL HEATING TO BEGIN...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
SHOWER AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG ANY BOUNDARIES. LATEST HIGH RES
MODELS FOCUS MOST ACTIVITY GENERALLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
FA. LATEST RADAR INDICATING ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THAT AREA
AND NEAR THE COAST WHICH IS DRIFTING NW. TONIGHT...A CONTINUED AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC...WITH AN EAST
FLOW AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS PROGGED AT 925MB TO 850MB...TO PROVIDE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY PENETRATING INLAND INTO OUR
SOUTHERN FA...ALONG WITH POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER. MOST MODEL OUTPUT FOCUSING MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR
THE COASTAL PLAIN...BUT LATEST RAP MODEL SUGGESTING ACTIVITY COULD
CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE S MIDLANDS AND CSRA. SOME UNCERTAINTY
BUT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MAINLY S FA/CSRA
TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE
INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NORTH FLORIDA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO A POSITION OFF
THE NC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. MOIST EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE
SURFACE LOW WILL HOLD MOST THE THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
MIDLANDS. PWAT GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 1.50 INCHES IS FORECAST
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SUMTER THROUGH COLUMBIA TO AUGUSTA.
THUS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND
CSRA WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN MIDLANDS AS
SHOWERS ROTATE AROUND THE LOW. BOTH THE SURFACE UPPER LOW WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO
FILTER IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 15
KNOTS SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S AS SKIES CLEAR.

SUNDAY...THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD TAKING THE BETTER MOISTURE WITH IT. H850 FLOW
BECOMES DOWNSLOPE AND PWAT DECREASES TO BELOW AN INCH WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY. HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST. SUNNY
SKIES AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE UPSTATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WENT WITH CONSENSUS FOR LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SHIFT EAST ON
MONDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS
QUICKER WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT THAN THE NAM. THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT WILL INFLUENCE HEATING AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE AS MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED AND TIMING APPEARS TOO EARLY TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORABLE.
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR SHOULD REACH THE AREA LATE MONDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...JUST IN TIME FOR THE FALL EQUINOX. TUESDAY
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO
LOWER 60S SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL BE OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL CREATE A STRONG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC. HAVE FORECAST MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY. DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO PROMOTE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS TIME...WILL HANDLE WITH VCSH IN THE TAFS AND
UPGRADE LATER BASED ON RADAR TRENDS IF/WHEN CONFIDENCE WARRANTS.
LATER TONIGHT...CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN AREAS...OGB/AGS/DNL...DUE TO LOCATION OF BEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC. ALSO...THIS ALONG WITH
DIURNAL COOLING EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING OR
MIDDAY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SATURDAY EXPECTED TO FAVOR AREAS NEAR
THE COAST AND WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

245 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO
CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
BEGIN CUTTING OFF NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH OVER E
CANADA TO SHIFT EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND OFFSHORE WATERS ALLOWING
SOME RIDGING TO BUILD DOWN THE EAST COAST. MEANWHILE SURFACE WAVE
OFFSHORE TO DEVELOP SOME IN RESPONSE TO UPPER ENERGY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL E TO NE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.
SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES APPEAR TO BE IN PLAY. THE ONE THAT
PUSHED THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) THIS MORNING APPEARS TO BE
SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR FA NOW. ANOTHER BOUNDARY/DEWPOINT GRADIENT
IS NEAR THE NE FA...BEHIND WHICH DRIER AIR NOTED OVER CENT/E NC
AND NE SC. IT APPEARS DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE NE FA TODAY AND
PRECLUDE SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE. DISSIPATING CLOUDINESS ALLOWING
BETTER DIURNAL HEATING TO BEGIN...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
SHOWER AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG ANY BOUNDARIES. LATEST HIGH RES
MODELS FOCUS MOST ACTIVITY GENERALLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
FA. LATEST RADAR INDICATING ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THAT AREA
AND NEAR THE COAST WHICH IS DRIFTING NW. TONIGHT...A CONTINUED AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC...WITH AN EAST
FLOW AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS PROGGED AT 925MB TO 850MB...TO PROVIDE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY PENETRATING INLAND INTO OUR
SOUTHERN FA...ALONG WITH POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER. MOST MODEL OUTPUT FOCUSING MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR
THE COASTAL PLAIN...BUT LATEST RAP MODEL SUGGESTING ACTIVITY COULD
CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE S MIDLANDS AND CSRA. SOME UNCERTAINTY
BUT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MAINLY S FA/CSRA
TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE
INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NORTH FLORIDA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO A POSITION OFF
THE NC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. MOIST EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE
SURFACE LOW WILL HOLD MOST THE THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
MIDLANDS. PWAT GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 1.50 INCHES IS FORECAST TO
TO ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SUMTER THROUGH COLUMBIA TO
AUGUSTA. THUS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN
MIDLANDS AS SHOWERS ROTATE AROUND THE LOW. BOTH THE SURFACE UPPER
LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING DRIER
AIR TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. DRY FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 15
KNOTS SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S AS SKIES CLEAR.

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY. DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO PROMOTE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS TIME...WILL HANDLE WITH VCSH IN THE TAFS AND
UPGRADE LATER BASED ON RADAR TRENDS IF/WHEN CONFIDENCE WARRANTS.
LATER TONIGHT...CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN AREAS...OGB/AGS/DNL...DUE TO LOCATION OF BEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC. ALSO...THIS ALONG WITH
DIURNAL COOLING EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING OR
MIDDAY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SATURDAY EXPECTED TO FAVOR AREAS NEAR
THE COAST AND WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

129 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE NORTHEASTERLY WEDGE FLOW IN THE FORECAST AREA.
A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE...CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS IN THE EASTERN FA. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PROMOTE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 15
KNOTS. HIGHS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY UNDER THE
WEDGE-LIKE SETUP WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

SUNDAY...THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD TAKING THE BETTER MOISTURE WITH IT. H850 FLOW
BECOMES DOWNSLOPE AND PWAT DECREASES TO BELOW AN INCH WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY. HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST. RAISED MAX
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON SUNDAY WHICH MODEL THICKNESS
VALUES SUPPORT. NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SHIFT EAST ON
MONDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH MODEL PWAT VALUES MAXIMIZING AROUND 1.5 INCHES 06Z
MONDAY. THE GFS IS QUICKER WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT THAN THE
NAM. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL INFLUENCE HEATING AND THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. CONTINUED TO INDICATE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
AS MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED AND TIMING APPEARS TOO EARLY TO BE
DIURNALLY FAVORABLE. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR SHOULD REACH THE
AREA LATE MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...JUST IN TIME FOR THE
FALL EQUINOX. TUESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE
UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL BE WELL
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MAX TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO NEAR 80 TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

605 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WELL UP INTO THE 60S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY
FAVORABLE, ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000
J/KG AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN A BAND OF INCREASED H7 FRONTOGENESIS
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
MORE READILY AVAILABLE WITH CHANCES TAPERING OFF WESTWARD WHERE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS LOWER INTO THE UPPER 50S(F) CLOSER TO THE
COLORADO BORDER.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE LOWER 60S(F)
EXPERIENCED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS MORNING AS
COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH THE LOWER 60S(F) STILL LIKELY
FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE COOLER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL HELP LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS WELL. THE
NAM/GFS SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES ONLY UP INTO THE MID TEENS(C) ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE UPPER TEENS(C) IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER PLAYING A POSSIBLE FACTOR EARLY IN THE
DAY, HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S(F) ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE LOWER
80S(F) IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

STARTING ON MONDAY, THERE IS A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, AND IT WILL BRING A TROUGH THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS, AND HELP DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE WESTERN 1/3RD OF
KANSAS MONDAY. THAT SURFACE TROUGH WILL CHANGE INTO A SURFACE
TROUGH BEFORE TUESDAY MORNING, WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EAST DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD BE IN CENTRAL KANSAS
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD. THERE
WILL BE 30 TO 40 PERCENT POP CHANCES INTRODUCED INTO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL THEN INCREASE TO 50 TO 60
PERCENT POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELY
CHANCES IN OUR EASTERN ZONES, MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL WASH AWAY WEDNESDAY, BUT UPPER WAVES WILL
STILL BE CROSSING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THUS, THERE
WILL STILL EXIST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS FOR CONVECTION ON
WEDNESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, SMALL POPS WILL
BE IN THE FORECAST, MAINLY FOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORTED CONVECTION
(ELEVATED). BY FRIDAY, THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE EAST OF WESTERN
KANSAS, AND THERE WILL BE A STANDARD LEE SIDE TROUGH FORMING BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. SMALL CONVECTION
CHANCES WILL EXIST BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS,
JUST IN CASE THE LEE SIDE TRIGGERS SOME STORMS.

I DID NOT CHANGE THE MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES ANY. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM 80F TO 85F DEGREES, AND LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM 55F TO 60F
DEGREES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

EVENING CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY
THAT EXTENDED FROM JUST NORTH OF DODGE CITY TO NEAR GREAT BEND AT
00Z SUNDAY. AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH EARLY TONIGHT THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE DODGE CITY AREA WILL END BY 02Z. VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT GIVEN THAT THE 18Z NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS, AND HRRR BOTH SUGGESTING THAT THE CLOUD BASES WILL BE
AT OR ABOVE 7000FT AGL. PREVAILING WINDS NORTH OF THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL BE NORTH NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 62 80 54 80 / 30 20 10 20
GCK 59 78 55 77 / 30 20 10 40
EHA 58 77 59 75 / 30 20 20 30
LBL 62 80 57 80 / 30 20 10 30
HYS 57 77 49 76 / 10 0 0 10
P28 63 82 54 81 / 30 20 0 0

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

137 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NO UPDATE PLANNED FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ALL IS QUIET THIS MORNING WITH A BEAUTIFUL MORNING ONGOING. LAST OF
THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES EXCEPT TO REFINE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BASED ON LATEST HI RES
MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS WAS ONLY TO TRIM SOME AREAS OUT OF THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS ON
TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATIONS. THIS LED TO VERY LITTLE CHANGE...JUST A FRESHENING UP
OF THE HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINT CURVES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES HAS LIKELY
ALREADY BEGUN TO LIFT AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND 9 AM. THE 6Z
GFS AND NAM SUGGESTED THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN NEAR THE VA OR WV BORDER. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO
INDICATE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER FROM HARLAN
COUNTY NORTHEAST TO PIKE COUNTY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE NEXT TIER OF
COUNTIES TO THE NORTH.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THROUGH TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WORKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TO NEAR
CAPE COD THIS EVENING AND THEN OFF THE NORTHEAST US COAST TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...AN INVERTED TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THEN SHIFT WEST AND
WEAKEN TONIGHT. TO THE EAST OF THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS...A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THIS SFC
HIGH INTO THE APPALACHIANS GENERALLY ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...RATHER BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE
VA BORDER.

ON SATURDAY THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE LOWER OH VALLEY AS THE RIDGE RETREATS WEST AND
BUILDS TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ONCE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES...A GENERAL WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST. SOME
MOISTURE SHOULD BE DRAWN WEST AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH LEADING TO
CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA FORM MIDDAY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS BELOW THE MID LEVEL CAP. THE NAM IS GENERALLY THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. THE END OF THE
THE 5Z HRRR RUN GENERALLY KEEPS THE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH 20Z.

DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT MODELS KEEP THE LAYER
NEAR 800 TO 850 MB RATHER MOIST TONIGHT. SOME STRATOCU NEAR THE LEVEL
WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD STILL
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE VA BORDER COUNTIES. MEANWHILE
DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS HIGHEST NEAR THE VA
BORDER AND A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EXPOSED RIDGETOPS SUCH AS THE
FLATWOODS AREA OF PIKE COUNTY...PORTIONS OF THE CREST OF PINE
MOUNTAINS AND BLACK MOUNTAINS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHTER
WINDS...WITH VALLEYS FURTHER NORTHWEST LIKELY DECOUPLED. HIGHER
ANTICIPATED DEWPOINTS...A LARGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW CLOUDS SHOULD BRING WARMER MIN T TONIGHT. SOUTH TO
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOW TO MID 80S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF ON 0Z SUNDAY WITH A DEEPENING
TROUGH IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL QUICKLY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
MORNING...QUICKLY PUSHING LOWERING HEIGHTS INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH SE TOWARDS KY AS WELL...AND REACH THE OHIO RIVER JUST
AFTER 0Z SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO A MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...WITH
POPS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE CWA AS EARLY AS 12Z
SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINING CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXITING SE OF THE REGION BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z MONDAY.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL
INSTABILITY FOR THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...THOUGH IT HAS
IMPROVED SLIGHTLY FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT IDEA FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND AND JUST AFTER 18Z...THEN
DROPPING OFF QUICKLY AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP AFTER 0Z
MONDAY AND WINDS QUICKLY TURN MORE NRLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS LEADING UP TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ENOUGH
WAA TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY
WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
PATTERN...WITH STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO
THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL. YET HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO
THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THIS CANADIAN AIR MASS. TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY MOVES IN OVERHEAD AND
LESSONS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONGEST NWRLY WINDS. AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS HIT
ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF
VALLEY FOG. AT THIS TIME...MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF
SITES FROM THIS FOG...BUT IF THE FOG ENDS UP BEING A BIT MORE
ROBUST...SOME IMPACTS COULD BE FELT LATE TONIGHT. ANY FOG WILL BURN
OFF BY 9 OR 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...KAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

955 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ASIDE FROM MAINLY VALLEY FOG LIFTING AND DISSIPATING THROUGH ABOUT 13Z...
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD IN ALL LOCATIONS. THE
EXCEPTIONS TO THIS IS THE IFR OR MVFR FOG IN A FEW SPOTS INITIALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR...POSSIBLE MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP BETWEEN
17Z AND 23Z...AND MAINLY VALLEY FOG LATE IN THE PERIOD WHERE MVFR OR
IFR IS POSSIBLE. FOR THE FOG LATE IN THE PERIOD...SJS AND SME APPEAR
TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF DROPPING TO IFR AMONG THE TAF SITES.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

745 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

407 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ASIDE FROM GENERALLY VALLEY FOG THAT MAY LIFT ONTO SOME OF THE
ADJACENT RIDGETOP LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE BIG SANDY REGION.
SOME OF THIS FOG MAY BE PATCHY DENSE AND VI`S BELOW AIRPORT MI NS IS
POSSIBLE AT SJS. OTHERWISE...FOG SHOULD BE MVFR OR VFR AT THE TAF
SITES DURING THE 8Z TO 13Z PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THIS VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z AND
22Z ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
A LOZ TO JKL TO SJS LINE. WHERE THESE SHOWERS OCCUR...BRIEF MVFR IS
POSSIBLE.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

943 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SFC HI PRES EXITING E OF NEW ENG THIS EVE...WHILE SFC LO PRES
SLOLY DEVELOPING SE OF CHS. RA FM ECNTRL NC CONTS TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY MOVING INTO CSTL NE NC SO FAR THIS EVE. 00Z/21 RUC
BRINGS AT LEAST SCT SHRAS NWD ACRS CSTL NE NC...MNLY E OF THE
CHOWAN RIVER...AND INTO EXTREME SE VA AFT 04-06Z/21. HAVE INCRSD
POPS A LITTLE OVR THOSE AREAS FOR THE REST OF THE NGT...WHILE LWRG
POPS TO THE N OVR THE ERN SHORES OF VA/MD. WIDESPREAD CLDNS WILL
COVER MOST OF ERN INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE FA OVRNGT...THOUGH
LOWEST CIGS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF HAMPTON RDS ON S
OVR (CSTL) NE NC.

ONLY MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS FOR THE OVRNGT HRS BASED
ON TRENDS AND LATEST NEAR TERM GUID. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH
MANY AREAS W OF I95 CORRIDOR AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW 60F. CLOSER
TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE
60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT
IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST RUC SLOWER W/ EXIT OF CLDS/PCPN INVOF (SE VA/NE NC) CST SUN
MORNING...SO HAVE SLOWED DOWN TAPERING OF POPS W-E. OTRW...THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO
THE LOWER 80S...AS CONDS ARE P/MSNY W...AND CLEARING (MIDDAY/AFTN)
E.

A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY
IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS TURN
TO NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR STRATUS TO ALL BUT RIC AND
SOME IFR IS EXPECTED AT SBY AND ECG. THE WEATHER IMPROVES BY LATE
MORNING TO MIDDAY SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLGT TO LOW CHCS FOR
SHOWERS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SLGT CHCS FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY.

.MARINE...
8 PM UPDATE...SEAS AND WAVES AT CAPE CHARLES BUOY AND FIRST
LANDING RESPECTIVELY ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGN OF SUBSIDING.
MODELS ARE INSISTENT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS SOON AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN WAVES DROPPING BELOW SCA IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. THE
SCA EXPIRATION OF 10 PM SEEMED TOO SOON FOR THAT AND ADJUSTED
THAT TO 1 AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SFC HI PRES STRETCHES DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC
CST TNGT AS LO PRES PASSES OFFSHORE. AS FAR AS HEADLINES...SCA OVR
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL CONTINUE THRU 10 PM DUE TO 4 FT WAVES.
HIGH SEAS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVR THE CSTL WTRS DUE TO PROLONGED
ERLY/NERLY FETCH. WILL CONTINUE HEADLINES THERE INTO
TOMORO...ENDING THEM FM N TO S THRU THE DAY AS FLOW BCMS NLY. A
COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE SUN/ERLY MON...WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-SCA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A WEAK GRADIENT AND
CAA. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF THE AREA MON NGT MAY
BRING WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND
15 KT FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES AND SEAS
AND SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MONITORING TIDES INVOF MIDDLE BAY (SPECIFICALLY LEWISETTA
VA...CAMBRIDGE AND BISHOPS HEAD MD)...WHERE FCST LEVELS FOR TIDES
OVNNGT TO FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ATTM.

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...ALB/WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

937 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLGT TO LOW CHCS FOR
SHOWERS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SLGT CHCS FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY.

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...ALB/WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS/LSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1151 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A GRADUAL EXPANSION OF IFR STRATUS HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF
THE EVENING STORMS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DEVELOPING INVERSION
SHOULD CAUSE CONTINUED LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT INTO THE MORNING.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND A RENEWED
SURGE OF INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR STORMS ANYTIME AFTER 09Z...THE MOST
PROBABLE TIME PERIOD WILL BE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
ENTER MBS BY 12Z...BUT WILL LIKELY SLOW AS IT WORKS ACROSS METRO
DETROIT LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER WAVE SLOWS.

FOR DTW...

THERE CERTAINLY IS A POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO LIFT UP FROM THE
SOUTH AND IMPACT METRO EARLY THIS MORNING. CHANCES OF THIS ARE
QUITE LOW ATTM. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE CEILINGS WILL BE BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON THUNDERSTORMS SUN MORNING AND SUN
AFTERNOON.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 913 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

UPDATE...

STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE NOW OVERSPREADING SE MI IN THE WAKE OF
THE EARLIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SUPPRESS ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSTM
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND FIRST HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD
FRONT OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN
MORNING. THE 00Z GRB SOUNDING SHOWED FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...SUPPORTING GOOD ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE SECONDARY MID
LEVEL WAVE NOW TRAVERSING MN THIS EVENING WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER
ROUND OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. COOLING
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL IN TURN STEEPEN THE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OVER SE MI. THUS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
LATE ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE FRONT. THE CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSTM WILL THEN INCREASE FURTHOR
SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
AND THE UPPER WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD. AN UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE
REFLECTING THIS WILL BE FORTHCOMING.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 314 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WELL TO THE
WEST ARE TRACKING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...18Z DTX SOUNDING
SHOWS A RATHER ROBUST CAP IN THE 875-850MB AREA...WHICH WILL LIKELY
TAKE QUITE SOME TIME TO TOTALLY ERODE. MODELS...INCLUDING PRIMARY
AND PARALLEL HRRR RUNS TODAY...SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY
FILL IN ALONG BOTH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE CWA AND ALSO ALONG VORTICITY SPOKE FURTHER WEST ASSOCIATED WITH
LEFTOVER WEAK MCV. GIVEN CAPPING...AND THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY...EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN RATHER DISORGANIZED AND
SUB-SEVERE FOR THE MOST PART.

WILL STILL WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS WIND
FIELDS ARE DECENT...INCREASING FROM 25-30 KNOTS H85-H7 TO 50 KNOTS
AT H5. WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING...TEMPERATURES AROUND 80F DETROIT
SOUTH...OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA AND A LACK OF NOTABLE DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS MAY ASSIST IN GUST POTENTIAL GIVEN
THE ABOVE ATMOSPHERIC WIND SPEEDS.

THIS INITIAL PUSH OF FORCING...AND WHATEVER CONVECTION COMES OF
IT...WILL SHIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
OVER THE CWA...PARTICULARLY M 59 SOUTH...WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS. SO...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BUILD THROUGH AREA INTO THIS EVENING.
ONCE THIS ACTIVITY EBBS LATE THIS EVENING...EXPECT RENEWED SHOWER
AND STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DIGS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

WITH MILD...SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT...MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD...HOLDING IN THE 60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY AS FURTHER CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL INSOLATION AND MINIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING FURTHER.

LONG TERM...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM/CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA...WITH A STRONGER
EMBEDDED UPPER WAVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER NORTH DAKOTA. IT
IS THIS UPPER WAVE/COLD POOL (-18 TO -19 C) WHICH WILL ARRIVE OVER
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY MORNING. WITH SOME LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND MORE THAN ADEQUATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE (6.5+ C/KM FROM
700-500 MB)...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
LIKELY DURING SUNDAY. A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE/COLD POOL WILL FOLLOW
ON THE BACKSIDE THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW IN THIS SYSTEMS WAKE OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR SOLID COLD ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE...AS
850 MB TEMPS LOWER INTO THE LOW SINGLE NUMBERS...WITH SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE VALUES OVER LAKE HURON...PER 12Z EURO/NAM. AS SUCH...FULLY
ONBOARD WITH THE 12Z NAM 925 MB RH/LOW CLOUDS AS NORTHERLY FLOW
COMES OFF THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE HURON SUNDAY NIGHT.
HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY RAMPED UP THE CLOUDS MONDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL
LIKELY TAKE MUCH OF THE DAY TO MIX OUT/ERODE...HOLDING MAXES CLOSE
TO 60 DEGREES. FAVORABLE RADIATING CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT EXPECTED
TO ALLOW MINS TO FALL INTO THE 40S.

STUBBORN HIGH PRESSURE AND RELENTLESS LOW RH VALUES THROUGH THE
COLUMN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD. FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK UNDER AN OMEGA BLOCKING HIGH. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH NO THREAT OF PRECIPITATION.

MARINE...

WARMER AIRMASS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...COUPLED WITH THE WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES IS TRANSLATING
TO WIND SPEEDS BELOW 25 KNOTS...AND WILL DROP THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP...AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE INTO
TONIGHT. A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TOMORROW AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT...ALLOWING
LARGE WAVE TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY NEED DURING THAT TIME
FRAME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXERT FAVORABLE INFLUENCE ON THE WATERS
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....SF/MM
MARINE.......SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

913 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 314 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

LONG TERM...

MARINE...

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1251 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

//DISCUSSION...

FORCING ALONG LEAD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/WEAK MCV CENTER SHOULD BRING SCT
CONVECTION TO LOWER MICHIGAN BY 17Z-19Z...WELL AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC
TROUGH AXIS WEST OVER WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ORGANIZE TO SOME
DEGREE AS IT MOVES INTO TERMINALS...BUT GIVEN THE EARLIER ARRIVAL OF
ACTIVITY...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS SURFACE DEW POINTS
STRUGGLE TOWARDS 60F IN ADVANCE OF THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY.

AFTER THIS PUSH OF SHRAS/EMBEDDED THUNDER...HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO AREA IN ADVANCE OF MAIN TROUGH...LEADING TO
A CONTINUATION OF RATHER DISORGANIZED CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING
GENERALLY SOUTH OF M 59. RENEWED ACTIVITY CAN THEN BE EXPECTED BY
LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AS MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
AREA...DURING WHICH TIME CIGS WILL CONSISTENTLY DROP TO MVFR OR
PERHAPS IFR AT TIMES.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT KDTW BEYOND 22Z
THIS AFTERNOON.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET AFTER 22Z...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER CONFIDENCE FROM TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

UPDATE.......SC
AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....SF/MM
MARINE.......SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

348 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
A TROUGH FROM SRN SASK INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW
WAS INCREASING OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN LAKES AS THE
PRES GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A TROUGH FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
NRN PLAINS AND HIGH PRES OVER QUEBEC. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION HAS ALSO BROUGHT SOME LOW CLOUDS INTO MUCH OF CNTRL WI AND
UPPER MI. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NR CNTRL MN WERE SUPPORTED BY
310K-315K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH FAVORABLE 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION
ON 40-50 KNOT WINDS.

TODAY...RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD TOWARD UPPER MI AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE AND THE STRONGER 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION MOVE IN. WITH
MODEL TRENDS HAVE SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF THE PCPN INTO UPPER MI AND
THE PRESENCE OF A DRY 850-600 MB LAYER...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
INTO THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA MAINLY IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
ONLY CHANCE FOR TSRA WAS MENTIONED OVER THE FAR WEST WHERE MUCAPE
VALUES CLIMB TO NEAR 800 J/KG. AS THE LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT TOWARD
AFTERNOON AND DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES...A BETTER PORTION OF THE
40-50 KNOT 900-850 MB WINDS MAY MIX TOWARD THE SFC. HOWEVER...THE
DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD MAINLY ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 30
KNOTS. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
EAST WHERE THE STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE LAKE MI MARINE LAYER ARE ABLE
TO MIX TOWARD THE SFC OVER THE EAST AND WINDS GUST INTO THE 30-40 MPH
RANGE FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR GRAND MARAIS TO NEWBERRY.

TONIGHT...SCT/NMRS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
THROUGH THE CWA IN THE EVENING AS THE SFC AND MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH
AND THE AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE(PWAT TO 1.5 INCHES)/INSTABILITY
(MUCPAE TO NEAR 1K J/KG) MOVE IN. THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TSRA
REMAINS WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 14C.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL BE
TRACKING AROUND THE BASE OF A BROADER TROUGH ACROSS ONTARIO AND
HUDSON BAY. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
THE EASTERN CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHILE A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TRACKS SE ACROSS MN. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
WILL BE FORMING ON A TRAILING SFC TROUGH FROM THE COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND A NEGATIVE UPPER PV ANOMALY WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN WI AND
MUCH OF UPPER MI SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE
DECREASED BY THIS TIME BEHIND THE LEAD SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...OVERALL DYNAMICS WILL BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN RAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA..ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS DOES NOT CLEAR THE CWA UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY...SO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS SHOULD
CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL NW FLOW WILL SET-IN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A SFC RIDGE EXTENDING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CROSS
THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS ARE A BIT TRICKY TO PIN DOWN AS THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT. WENT
WITH THE LOWER END OF TEMP GUIDANCE IN THE MID 30S FOR INTERIOR
LOCATIONS.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF FAR NORTHERN
CANADA...PASSING BETWEEN LAKE SUPERIOR AND JAMES BAY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS
UPPER MI MONDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING...AND WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER JET OVERHEAD AND MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONV
TIED DIRECTLY TO THE TROUGH...AM EXPECTING A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE AS
ANOTHER SFC HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO TUESDAY WHILE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. AS
THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
WILL CROSS NORTH OF UPPER MI THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH...AND THUS HOW EFFECTIVE
IT WILL BE IN PICKING UP A SLOW-MOVING CLOSED-LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE NORTHERN TROUGH AND
THUS PICKS UP MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE CLOSED-LOW. THE GFS IS
WEAKER WITH THE NORTHERN TROUGH AND STRUGGLES TO KICK OUT THE
CLOSED-LOW. BOTH SOLUTIONS BRING CHANCES OF PRECIP TO THE CWA...BUT
THE ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE COVERAGE. GIVEN HOW ANY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
IN THE NORTHERN TROUGH COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PICKING UP
THE LOW OR LEAVING IT BEHIND...HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE CONSENSUS
CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH WILL
BRING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. FLOW
IS ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE FOR KSAW...AND EXPECT CONTINUED GUSTS TO
30KT OR PERHAPS HIGHER THERE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. OVERALL
COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS NOT BEEN EXTENSIVE...THEREFORE HAVE
KEPT VCSH IN FORECAST FOR IWD LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BETTER
CHANCE OF SHRA PUSHING IN DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE
AREA. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...CONTINUED MOISTENING WILL OCCUR ALLOWING
EACH TAF SITE TO FALL TO IFR OR POSSIBLY EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS. WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL DECREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
AND MIXING DECREASES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHIFTING
EASTWARD. 20-30KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EAST TODAY. A FEW GALES TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
HIGHER PLATFORMS AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER MI SHORELINE. THE 20-30KT
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. EXPECT A PERIOD OF WESTERLY WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NW WINDS TO 20 KNOTS SUNDAY BEHIND THIS
TROUGH. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CHANCE OF NORTH WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND A QUICK-MOVING LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

736 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z SAT WITH
MORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST AND REINFORCING THE
TROUGH ON SUN AND INTO SUN NIGHT. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT MOVED POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH LATER
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS
MOSTLY FOR SAT INTO SUN...BUT HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CWA SAT NIGHT AS NEXT ENERGY ARRIVES WITH MORE MOISTURE. DID
NOT CHANGE TEMPERATURES MUCH EITHER.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. 12Z MON WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH IN THE
DESERT SW. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z
TUE WITH A TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR 12Z THU. WHAT
THIS WILL MEAN IS A WARMING TREND IN THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPERATURES
GOING ABOVE NORMAL AND QUIET WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL
ALSO REMAIN DRY FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

UPSLOPE FLOW OF LAKE MI MOISTENED AIR INTO COOLER AIR OVER UPPER MI HAS
BROUGHT STRATUS (IFR CIGS) INTO SAW. THESE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT
AND SCATTER OUT MID MORNING THRU EARLY AFTN AT KSAW. WITH MAINLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT CMX...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. OTHERWISE...TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SFC TROF WILL BRING GUSTY S WINDS TO ALL TERMINALS TODAY. FLOW IS
ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE FOR KSAW...AND EXPECT GUSTS TO 30KT OR PERHAPS
HIGHER THERE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH UNCERTAIN COVERAGE OF SHRA AHEAD OF
TROF... ONLY VCSH WAS INCLUDED IN FCST AT KIWD/KCMX LATE IN THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. BETTER CHC OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A TSTM WILL ARRIVE
DURING THE EVENING. CONDITIONS MAY FALL TO MVFR AT THAT TIME. BY LATE
TONIGHT...MOISTENING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITH A
LOWER CHANCE OF LIFR CIGS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

520 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN RESPONSE TO DEPARTING SFC HIGH PRES WILL
BRING TRAJECTORIES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A TIME EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS UPSLOPE FLOW OF LAKE MOISTENED AIR INTO COOLER AIR OVER UPPER
MI SHOULD RESULT IN STRATUS (IFR CIGS) SPREADING N TO KSAW TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THESE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER OUT MID MORNING
THRU EARLY AFTN AT KSAW. WHILE S WINDS ARE DOWNSLOPING AT KIWD...LOW
MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP THERE AS WELL TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THRU MID
MORNING. WITH FLOW UNDERGOING MORE SUBSTANTIAL DOWNSLOPING BEFORE
REACHING KCMX...OPTED TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AT THAT TERMINAL.
OTHERWISE...TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC TROF
WILL BRING GUSTY S WINDS TO ALL TERMINALS TODAY. FLOW IS ESPECIALLY
FAVORABLE FOR KSAW...AND EXPECT GUSTS TO 30KT OR PERHAPS HIGHER
THERE THIS AFTN. WITH UNCERTAIN COVERAGE OF SHRA AHEAD OF TROF...
ONLY VCSH WAS INCLUDED IN FCST AT KIWD/KCMX LATE IN THE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. BETTER CHC OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A TSTM WILL ARRIVE AT
KCMX/KIWD DURING THE EVENING. CONDITIONS MAY FALL TO MVFR AT THAT
TIME.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

353 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

DURING THE SHORT TERM...CONFIDENCE ON SEEING MUCH ACTIVITY IN THE
MPX CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CONTINUES TO PLUMMET...BUT THIS
HAS BEEN OFFSET BY A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE FOR SEEING
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT HAD PUSHED UP TO ABOUT THE MN
RIVER...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW NEAR THE
MN/ND/CAN BORDER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS. BAND OF LIGHT
RETURNS ON RADAR FROM WEST CENTRAL MN TOWARD DULUTH CORRELATES WELL
WITH FGEN THE RAP IS INDICATING IN THE H7-H6 LAYER ON THE NW SIDE OF
A RATHER STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. THIS CAPPING INVERSION LOOKS TO
KEEP THINGS IN CHECK THROUGH 00Z...BUT CAMS BEGIN TO SHOW THE CAP
BREAKING DOWN BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z THIS EVENING. STORMS LOOK TO
INITIATE ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE
FROM DULUTH...DOWN THROUGH GLENCOE AND OFF TOWARD SIOUX FALLS. THIS
BOUNDARY CAN BE IDENTIFIED IN THE WIND FIELD...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO NEARLY 40 MPH ACROSS IA INTO SRN MN
TO THE EAST...AND MUCH LIGHTER WSW WINDS THAT ARE BACK ACROSS WRN
MN. BY THE TIME 3Z COMES AROUND...WHICH IS WHEN THE HRRR AND HOPWRF
SHOW STORMS INITIATING...SAID WIND SHIFT LOOKS TO BE SITTING NEAR A
FAIRMONT/HASTINGS/RICE LAKE LINE. ANY SORT OF SHORT WAVE TO HELP
KICK OF THUNDERSTORMS DOES NOT LOOK TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 6Z...SO
LOOKS LIKE ISO-SCT STORM COVERAGE IS ABOUT THE BEST THE ERN FRINGE
OF THE MPX CWA CAN HOPE FOR...WITH MOST CAMS REALLY STARTING TO
HIGHLIGHT THE GREATEST STORM COVER BEING DOWN IN IOWA...WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. GIVEN TREND IN SHORT TERM MODELS...
CONTINUED TO REDUCE POPS/QPF THIS EVENING...AND ALSO SPED UP THE
EWD PROGRESSION OF THE DRY WEATHER AS ALL CAMS SHOW ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DOES DEVELOP THIS EVENING BEING EAST OF THE MPX CWA BY 9Z. THE
ONLY THING TO WATCH OUT FOR WITH POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING IS THE NAM DOES SHOW A REGION OF MID LEVEL FGEN WORKING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN AS A SHORTWAVE FINALLY WORKS ACROSS SRN MN.
HOWEVER...THIS WOULD NOT BE ANYTHING TOO SERIOUS AND WOULD BE POST
FRONTAL AND NO WORSE THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING ACROSS CENTRAL MN THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR SATURDAY WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION THROUGH THE
MORNING...BUT THE STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN ALBERTA WILL BE DIVING SE ACROSS NRN MN BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND CAMS WITH A LINE OF STORMS DIVING SE OUT OF
NRN MN DURING THE AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVES PV FEATURE AND AT
THE NOSE OF A 120+ KT NWRLY JET STREAK. GIVEN STRONG MODEL
AGREEMENT...INCREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE
LOW CHANCE CATEGORY TO KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF GOING CATEGORICAL.
MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SW WILL WE SEE ACTIVITY. GIVEN THE TRACK OF
THE PV ANOMALY AND JET STREAK...FORCING FROM THOSE FEATURES LOOKS TO
BE CENTERED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR...BUT SREF PROBS
AND CAM REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS DO SHOW THE LINE TAILING BACK INTO SW
MN...SO DID DRAG POPS AS FAR SW AS THE MN RIVER. FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT...THE BIG LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE MEAGER INSTABILITY
/MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG/ AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS OF 50 KTS OR MORE GETTING
DOWN TO NEAR 10K FEET. WITH THE CAMS SHOWING A NICE LINE OF STORMS
DEVELOPING...COULD SEE THESE STORMS BE ABLE TO TRANSFER SOME OF THIS
MOMENTUM TO THE GROUND...WHICH WILL POSE A RISK FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD KEEP ANY HAIL SIZES IN CHECK.

NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST...OTHER THAN
TO COOL HIGHS TOMORROW SOME WHERE WE HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AS THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUD COVER AND RAIN LOOKS TO PUT AN
EARLIER END TO DIURNAL RISES IN THOSE LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
WILL BE QUICK TO SWING EAST THANKS TO THE VERY FAST 90-130 KT
UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO THE SOUTHEASTWARD DIGGING TROUGH.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN INTO SUNDAY AND MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING EAST INTO
THE PLAINS WILL KEEP THE REMAINING AREAS DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR. THE
TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT BY MONDAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS AND CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT WILL TAKE PLACE NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF SEPTEMBER. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MAKE STEADY
PROGRESS EAST AND EVENTUALLY PARK ITSELF OVER NEW ENGLAND FOR
MIDWEEK AND BEYOND. MEANWHILE...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD OVER
THE MIDWEST WITH THE CENTER LOCATED SOMEWHERE NEARBY FOR LATE WEEK
AND NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER AND DRIER THAN
NORMAL PATTERN TO SET UP FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE LONG TERM.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF HIATUS IN THIS EVOLUTION MIDWEEK AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND A DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTH UP AND
AROUND THE BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST /CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER CALIFORNIA/. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH THE
BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE RATHER
MEAGER WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT GREATLY. KEPT POPS LOW
DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND A SLOW WEAKENING/ABSORPTION OF
THE SYSTEM INTO THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS CANADA.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE CENTERED
OVER THE MIDWEST BY NEXT WEEKEND. SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
MAKE A RETURN AS 850 MB TEMPS REACH BETWEEN +15 TO +20C. SINCE THE
MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA DID NOT HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S TODAY...WE STAND A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE AT
REACHING THE 80S AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A STRONGER RIDGE AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE WESTERN
TROUGH BEGINS TO ADVANCE EASTWARD - NOT UNTIL WELL AFTER THE
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT WITH ANY TSRA ACTIVITY
REMAINING SE OF ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING...SO REMOVED ANY
REMAINING VC MENTIONS WITH THE 18Z TAFS. MEANS ONLY CONCERN IS THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CIGS HAVE BEEN
RAPIDLY ERODING AWAY FROM THE SOUTH...AND THE RAP LOOKS TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDEL ON HOW THEY ARE ERODING AWAY...SO FOLLOWED IT TO TIME
CIG IMPROVEMENTS IN TAFS. MAY SEE MVFR CIGS TRY TO REFORM THIS
EVENING AS THE PREFRONTAL MOISTURE POOL MOVES INTO WI...BUT THE
HRRR ALONG WITH THE SREF ARE NOT VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH BUILDING
LOWER CIGS BACK IN UNTIL THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
OF EAU...SO JUST WENT WITH A SHORT WINDOW OF MVFR CIGS...SIMILAR
TO WHAT THE HRRR HAS. WILL LOOSE GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING AS THEY
VEER OVER TO THE WNW OVERNIGHT. PRECIP IS BEGINNING TO LOOK
LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT TIMING AFTER 18Z MAKES THEM A
PROBLEM FOR THE 00Z TAF FORECASTER TO FIGURE OUT.

KMSP...
MAY SEE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THROUGH 20Z AS MOISTURE WORKS IN FROM
THE WEST. HOWEVER...AS THESE CLOUDS ARRIVE...THEY ARE BREAKING UP
PRETTY FAST FROM THE SOUTH. AT ANY RATE...WITH THE FIELD
OPERATING ON THE 12S...THERE REALLY IS NOT MUCH OF AN
OPERATIONS IMPACT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AN 025 AND AN 040 FOR THE CIG.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE NO THUNDER THIS EVENING AT
MSP GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE CAPPING INVERSION...WITH IT NOT
LOOKING TO BREAK DOWN UNTIL THE FRONT IS WELL SE OF THE FIELD.
CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER IN SEEING SHRA/TSRA SAT AFTERNOON. DEBATED
PUTTING IN A -SHRA WITH THE 20/2200 GROUP...BUT AT 28 HOURS
OUT...WE HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK THAT INTO THE TAF WHEN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...MPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

308 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS OVER THE FA AT 19Z WILL BE MOVING E OF THE AREA
BY 00Z AND TAKING ITS UPPER SUPPORT WITH IT. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF
VORT MAXES WAS ALSO AFFECTING THE FA. THIS COMBO WAS DRIVING THE
RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...A WARM FRONT
WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE FA AS SEEN IN SFC TEMPS RISING EVEN UNDER
THE CLOUD SHIELD. A COLD FRONT WAS REACHING EASTERN ND AT 19Z AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. APPEARS ATTM THAT A CLEARING TREND
MAY OCCUR FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL
QUICKLY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND FILL IN. GUSTY SFC
WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET WHEN LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BISECT THE FA FROM N TO S BY 06Z.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEST
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE A
VORT MAX WILL BE DRIFTING THROUGH...AND IN NW WI WHERE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED DUE TO A DEPARTING JET LET. ATTEMPTED TO
ALIGN POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE FEATURES. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO
REACH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE WI FA BY 12Z SATURDAY. A DRYING TREND
WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING. TRENDED POPS
DOWNWARD AFTER 06Z.

THE FRONT COMPLETELY EXITS SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING THE SFC RIDGING
TO COVER THE FA BY 15Z. LEFT SOME POPS OVER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
AREA FOR ANY LEFTOVER RAIN. HAVE NO RAIN MENTIONED FROM 15Z TO 18Z
SATURDAY. AFTER 18Z...BEGIN TO RAMP THINGS UP AS A DIGGING UPPER
LEVEL TROF DRIVES ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA. FORCING IS
MAXIMIZED BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE NOSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
ARRIVES. HAVE POPS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER 21Z WITH THE HIGHEST
OVER THE MN ZONES. SOME STORMS MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE IN THE MID
AFTERNOON AS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST. MUCAPE APPROACHES 500
J/KG BUT INSTABILITY AXIS IS OVER THE SOUTHERN MN ZONES. WILL LEAVE
OUT THE MENTION FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME
OF THE STORMS COULD BE QUITE STRONG EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH STRONG
FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WE HAVE POPS HIGHEST OVER OUR
CENTRAL/EASTERN ZONES IN THE EVENING. THE FORCING WILL PARTIALLY
MAKE UP FOR A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN ON SUNDAY AND MOST AREAS WILL
BE DRY. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER EASTERN AREAS...BUT
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WITH RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP THE NORTHLAND DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A TROUGH WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER FIFTIES TO MIDDLE SIXTIES...THEN
BE IN THE SIXTIES THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGHS LATE IN THE WEEK LOOK TO
REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE SEVENTIES FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS COVERED MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A PORTION OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE RAP HAS A
FAIRLY GOOD GRASP ON THESE LOWER CEILINGS AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHES
THEM FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH. THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS TREND AS WELL. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WAS IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
DIMINISH FOR MOST AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST WE EXPECT MORE TO FORM. FOG
WILL ALSO OCCUR IN SPOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS FOR MOST
AREAS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER POTENT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE WILL IMPACT THE NORTHLAND AFTER THE TAF
PERIOD...AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 58 67 51 61 / 40 60 70 20
INL 52 64 47 59 / 60 80 70 10
BRD 57 69 49 67 / 20 60 20 10
HYR 59 68 49 64 / 50 60 60 20
ASX 58 68 50 60 / 50 40 60 30

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

130 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE RAIN THAT WE`VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT ALL WEEK IS FINALLY ON OUR
DOORSTEP...HOWEVER...STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL ACT TO CAP THE
ATMOSPHERE TODAY AND KEEP DEEP MOIST CONVECTION AT A MINIMUM UNTIL
THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MN AND WI. THETA-E
ADVECTION IS GOING STRONG IN THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
THE RESULT IS A HEALTHY BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
CONTINUE TO SLOW CREEP EAST WITH TIME. MODEST MUCAPE AND GOOD MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE LEAD TO A COUPLE STRONGER CORES IN THE ABR
FORECAST AREA AND EVEN A LATE NIGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FOR ONE PARTICULARLY STRONG ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM. WE THINK THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THESE SHOWERS /ROUGHLY GETTYSBURG-BOWDLE/ WILL
ALSO REPRESENT THE LATITUDINAL SOUTHERN EXTENT IN MN LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN WESTERN WI. THEREFORE...NEARLY ALL
OF THE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD BE WELL NORTH OF
I-94...CLOSER TO THE UPPER JET AND COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS. THERE
SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...BUT WE REALLY DON`T EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN BEFORE 00Z.

AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND
EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST WE SHOULD BUILD IN A
TONGUE OF MODEST MLCAPE /800-1500 J/KG/ BETWEEN 21-03Z ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN. THIS INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE WITH INCREASING
WESTERLY 0-6KM SHEAR VECTORS BY 00Z. THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT IS NOT VERY GOOD...SO THERE SHOULD
BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A FRONTAL CIRCULATION TO HELP INITIATE
CONVECTION. THERE WILL BE MECHANICAL LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT AND
EASTWARD ADVANCING 20-50M 12-HR FALLS WITH THE SHORTWAVE. WE
DEFINITELY THINK THERE IS ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH THAT
WIDESPREAD OR NUMEROUS STORMS WILL BREAK OUT ALONG THE FRONT. THIS
MORNING`S CAM GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AS THE FORCING EXITING THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD SUGGEST
BETTER STORM COVERAGE IN EASTERN IA...SOUTHEAST MN AND SW WI.

THERE REMAINS A MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
THIS EVENING. SYNTHETIC REFLECTIVITY OF THE CAMS SUGGEST MULTI-
CELL AND/OR LINEAR STORM STRUCTURE FROM 02-06Z ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...IT`S POSSIBLE A COUPLE OF THESE
STORMS WILL GET STRONG ENOUGH CORES TO TRANSFER SOME OF THIS
MOMENTUM DOWN TO THE GROUND. THE 24-HR CIPS /VALID AT 20.00Z/
ANALOGS FROM THE 19.00Z NAM SUGGEST 30-40% OF AT LEAST ONE SEVERE
REPORT WITH THE TOP ANALOGS FAVORING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN
WESTERN MN AND THE DAKOTAS...AND MORE WIND REPORTS IN SOUTHERN MN
AND IA. THIS MAKES SENSE BASED ON THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTION TODAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WE ALREADY SAW A NICE
ELEVATED IN SD THIS MORNING...SO THAT MATCHES THE CIPS SIGNAL FOR
HAIL OUT WEST. ALL THAT SAID...WOULD DOUBT WE NEED A WATCH TODAY
LOCALLY...BUT WOULDN`T BE TOTALLY SURPRISED TO SEE A WARNING OR
TWO COME OUT OF THIS OFFICE LATER ON THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SATURDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THRU THE UPR MISS
RIVER VALLEY SAT MRNG...PUSHING ALONG A SFC CDFNT THRU THE REGION.
MEAGER UPR LEVEL SUPPORT FOR TSTMS BUT THERE MAY WELL BE SOME
LINGERING SHWRS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY POST-FRONT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK AS MOISTURE WILL STILL BE FAIRLY DEEP WITH POCKETS OF PVA
INVOF THE CDFNT. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THRU...A SHORT BREAK
IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED THRU MIDDAY BUT THIS IS AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY-DROPPING SHORTWAVE TROF AXIS FROM CENTRAL CANADA. WITHIN
NW FLOW ALOFT...A CUTOFF LOW ALOFT WILL DEVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE
BUT NOT BEFORE ARRIVING WITH A POST-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH AND
CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE AREA SAT AFTN. DECENT DIVERGENCE
ALOFT WITH WEAK-MODERATE SFC CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO SPARK OFF SOME
ISOLD-SCATTERED SHOWERS SAT AFTN AND EVE FOR NE AND E PORTIONS OF
THE WFO MPX CWFA. THE UPR LEVEL FEATURE WILL DRIVE INTO SRN-ERN WI
SAT NIGHT...ENDING ANY FURTHER CONCERN FOR PRECIP AND HELPING DEEP
DRY NW FLOW TO TAKE HOLD.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LARGE WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL BUILD
FURTHER SUNDAY AND SPREAD ACRS THE ROCKIES GOING INTO MONDAY WHILE
AN UPR LVL LOW IS SUPPRESSED ON THE WRN FRINGES OF THE RIDGE OVER
CA/NV. THE UPR RIDGE WILL ALLOW COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN SFC HIGH
PRES TO DROP INTO THE NRN-CENTRAL PLAINS SUN...SPREADING EWD MON
INTO THE UPR-MID MISS RIVER VALLEY REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION. THE SFC HIGH PRES AND RIDGE ALOFT PATTERN WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT E ACRS THE REGION MON INTO TUE...KEEPING THE AREA WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND NO PRECIP. HOWEVER...THE UPR LVL LOW
OVER THE WRN STATES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD BEHIND THE UPR RIDGE...
BECOMING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE N-CENTRAL STATES BY MIDDAY
TUE. ITS SLOW WWD PROGRESS SPELLS NO PRECIP EXPECTED DURING THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NOW EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE NRN STATES DURG THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK MEANS A PATTERN CHANGE COMPARED TO THE PERSISTENT RIDGING AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT ORIGINALLY EXPECTED THE FAST FEW DAYS. IN TERMS
OF SENSIBLE WX...DESPITE WEAK SFC SUPPORT...FLOW ALOFT WILL SHAKE
THE ATMOS UP ENOUGH SUCH THAT ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACRS THE AREA WED INTO THU. NOT LOOKING FOR
A LOT OF COVERAGE NOR QPF ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

KMSP...
MAY SEE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THROUGH 20Z AS MOISTURE WORKS IN FROM
THE WEST. HOWEVER...AS THESE CLOUDS ARRIVE...THEY ARE BREAKING UP
PRETTY FAST FROM THE SOUTH. AT ANY RATE...WITH THE FIELD
OPERATING ON THE 12S...THERE REALLY IS NOT MUCH OF AN
OPERATIONS IMPACT DIFFERNCE BETWEEN AN 025 AND AN 040 FOR THE CIG.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE NO THUNDER THIS EVENING AT
MSP GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE CAPPING INVERSION...WITH IT NOT
LOOKING TO BREAK DOWN UNTIL THE FRONT IS WELL SE OF THE FIELD.
CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER IN SEEING SHRA/TSRA SAT AFTERNOON. DEBATED
PUTTING IN A -SHRA WITH THE 20/2200 GROUP...BUT AT 28 HOURS
OUT...WE HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK THAT INTO THE TAF WHEN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...MPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

1241 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD A MENTION OF FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE FROM
SILVER BAY TO GRAND PORTAGE. CKC CONTINUES TO CARRY BR WITH VSBYS
IMPROVING. RAIN SHIELD HAS REACHED THE WESTERN FA AS OF 14Z. MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE LATEST TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ADDED AREAS OF FOG/DRIZZLE ALONG ELEVATED TERRAIN OF COOK COUNTY.
LOW LVL COND PRESS DEFICITS HAVE DROPPED TO LESS THAN 10 MB DUE
TO TERRAIN LIFT OF LONG-FETCHED BDRY LYR FLOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME CONTINUES OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS IS LOCATED FROM NEAR THE TWIN PORTS
NORTH INTO THE ARROWHEAD. ALOFT...A LARGE AREA OF MID LVL CLOUD
COVER IS ADVECTING EAST ACROSS NE MN INTO NWRN WISC. A MIGRATORY
SHORTWAVE TROF IS MOVING ALONG THE TOP OF THE MID LVL RIDGE OVER THE
NRN PLAINS. ASSOCIATED 60/65KT LLJ HAS TRANSLATED INTO NWRN ONTARIO
WHERE AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED. WEAK RADAR RETURNS ARE
DEVELOPING WEST OF CWA AND WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO WRN CWA
BEFORE DAWN. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LINKED TO AN
EXTENSION OF THE 85H MSTR TRANSPORT MAXIMUM STRETCHING SOUTH FROM
ONTARIO.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TODAY...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WILL DRAG LLJ AXIS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. GENERAL IDEA IS THAT HIGHEST POPS WILL OCCUR OVER NWRN CWA
THRU 18Z...AND THEN SHIFT ACROSS ARROWHEAD AND ERN CWA DURING THE
AFTN HRS. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS LIMITED BASED ON FCST MLCAPE AND
MUCAPE FIELDS ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS QUITE SUFFICIENT TO
PROMOTE ORGANIZATION IF CELLS WERE TO DEVELOP. A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF CIN IS DEPICTED IN ELEVATED CAPE AREAS SO IT MAY BE
TOUGH TO GET MUCH DEVELOPMENT. MOST LIKELY POTENTIAL DEVELOPS
AFTER 00Z OVER WCTRL CWA.

TONIGHT..A NARROW WINDOW OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OCCURS FROM CASS
LAKE TO TWIN PORTS 03Z-06Z AS MUCAPES OF NEAR 1500 J/KG ALIGN WITH
45KT 0/6KM SHEAR. AFTER 06Z...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO MOVE QUICKLY SE ACROSS HYR LAKES VICINITY INTO PRICE
COUNTY. REGARDING THE OVERALL BDRY LYR CONVERGENCE ...IT IS NOT VERY
ORGANIZED AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IS FORECAST WITHIN THE LOWEST 5K
FEET. OTHERWISE THE FRONTAL BDRY WILL SWING ACROSS CWA WITH
WIND SHIFT TO W AND NW AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER INCREASING. HIGHER POPS
REMAIN ALONG INTL BORDER THROUGH 06Z...CLOSER TO DEEPER CYCLONIC
CURVATURE UNDERNEATH AMPLIFYING MID LVL TROF.

SATURDAY..INTERESTING PATTERN AS INITIAL FORCING MOVES EAST OF
REGION WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP OVER MOST OF WRN/CTRL CWA. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL RAVE INTO THE REGION BY AFTN WITH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN DUE TO BDRY LYR WARMING AND
COOLING ALOFT. SREF CPTP INDICATES MDT PROB OF THUNDER OVER MOST OF
THE NE MN ZONES THROUGH 21Z...AND FARTHER SOUTHEAST THROUGH 03Z. A
NARROW AXIS OF LOW LVL THERMAL RIDGING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROF
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB QUICKLY OVER SRN CWA TO LOW TO MID 70S SO
FCST TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH A H50 TROUGH AXIS WILL DROP OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOLING ALOFT WILL KEEP A CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND DURING
THIS TIME. A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LVL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST...CENTERING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE RIDGE
AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

FOCUS TURNS TO A SHORT WAVE THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...AND
INTO NW MINNESOTA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVE AS IT TRACKS OVER
THE NORTHLAND. ATTM...CARRYING BROAD BRUSH SCHC POPS WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 64 58 68 52 / 60 50 60 30
INL 69 54 65 47 / 70 70 60 70
BRD 68 58 71 49 / 60 20 40 10
HYR 66 61 70 49 / 60 50 40 30
ASX 67 60 68 50 / 60 50 30 40

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140-
141.

UPDATE...GSF
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON MS

351 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION HAS BEEN
SLOW TO GENERATE ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SURFACE ANALYSIS
AND VIS IMAGERY HAS REVEALED A NORTH-SOUTH CONVERGENT AXIS/TROF
BISECTING MS AT THE MOMENT. SPARSE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG
THIS AXIS AS WELL AS SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE IN THE SOUTH WHERE
BROADER CONVERGENCE IS OCCURRING. WESTWARD MOVING CONVECTIVE AREA
OVER AL IS A LITTLE CONCERNING FOR EASTERN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING...BUT THE HRRR SEEMS TO DECREASE THE COVERAGE AS IT CROSSES
THE STATELINE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS MID LEVEL MOIST LAYER BECOMES
SHALLOWER THE FURTHER WEST IT GETS. CONVECTION LOOKS TO GO TO SLEEP
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT DID DECIDE TO LEAVE SOME SLIGHT POPS IN FOR
THE SOUTH AND EAST AS THAT IS WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THE LONGEST.

SATURDAY AND FOR THE MOST PART SUNDAY LOOKS DRY ACROSS THE AREA AS
LOW/MID LEVEL EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CUT OFF THE GULF AND ALLOW
SOME UPPER 50/LOWER 60 SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO WEDGE IN FROM AL/GA.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALSO ADD A WEAK SUBSIDENT COMPONENT TO
THE VERTICAL MOTION AS WELL.

MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIGGING OUT OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO PHASE WITH WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
ALONG THE EAST COAST. AS THIS WAVE SWINGS BY TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MS BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSH SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. AS COLD FRONT ARRIVAL
TIME WILL BE LATE IN THE DIURNAL CYCLE...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ACTIVE
CONVECTION SUNDAY...HOWEVER...POOLING MOISTURE AND THE FRONTAL LIFT
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH./26/

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...OVERALL...THE LONG TERM CAN
BE SUMMARIZED A NICE DOWNWARD TREND TO NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL READINGS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK AS REINFORCING COOL AIR
INTRUSIONS OCCUR OVER THE ARKLAMISS.

ALL LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH
REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION BUT THE EC IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR INSTABILITY INDUCED SHOWERS
ALONG THE FAR SOUTH. YET, FEEL MOST OF REGION WILL BE DRY MONDAY AS
DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH CLOUDS CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY.
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS WILL SETTLE OVER REGION TUESDAY
MORNING WITH SLIGHT UPWARD MODIFICATION TO END OF WEEK ALLOWING FOR
COMFORTABLE LOWS AT LEAST INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH SOME MID 50S
POSSIBLE. WOULD BE MORE CONFIDENT IN MID TO LOW 50S IN THIS SET UP
BUT DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS UP OVERNIGHT COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME MIXING AND KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TO FULL LOW
POTENTIAL. HIGHS WILL LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN AS A NICE REX BLOCK TO OUR EAST ALLOWS FOR
CONTINUAL LOW-LEVEL EAST/NE COOL AIR FETCH. /ALLEN/

.AVIATION...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS (AND A FEW HEAVIER DOWNPOURS) THIS
AFTERNOON STRAY AND BRIEF SUB-VFR CATS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GOING
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY MVFR VIS REDUCTIONS DUE TO
LIGHT FOG.

SURFACE WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND
LIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TOMORROW. /BB/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 66 90 65 91 / 6 2 3 13
MERIDIAN 64 88 63 90 / 15 1 3 12
VICKSBURG 64 91 63 91 / 4 2 3 14
HATTIESBURG 67 91 67 91 / 17 3 2 12
NATCHEZ 67 89 66 90 / 16 5 3 11
GREENVILLE 67 91 67 92 / 3 4 6 17
GREENWOOD 66 90 65 91 / 3 4 5 17

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON MS

959 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...WV IMAGERY SHOWING WHAT LOOKS LIKE MUCH DRIER AIR OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING...BUT AREA SOUNDINGS ARE STILL INDICATING LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE. HRRR AND TO A LESSER EXTENT LOCAL WRF ARE BOTH
INDICATING SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO THE NORTH. FORECAST CELLS HAVE A
MORE WESTERLY MOVEMENT INDICATING THAT THEY SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT
SHALLOW AS THE EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. UPPED
POPS IN THE GRIDS TO CHANCE IN THE FAR SOUTH WHILE SPREADING THE
SLIGHT CHANCE AREA FURTHER NORTH AND WEST./26/

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES ARE IMPROVING QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED AT ALL TAF SITES LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON AND IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS (MORE LIKELY SOUTH OF I-20) STRAY
AND BRIEF SUB-VFR CATS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GOING INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING EXPECT
AT LEAST PATCHY MVFR VIS REDUCTIONS DUE TO LIGHT FOG.

SURFACE WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND
LIGHT. /BB/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY OUR REGION WILL SEE THE PATTERN CHANGE SOME AS
WE TRANSITION FROM A NW FLOW REGIME TO ONE OF S/WV RIDGING. THIS
RIDGING LOOKS TO BE BRIEF AS WE SHIFT TO A NW FLOW PATTERN AGAIN
FOR SUNDAY. TODAY LOOK FOR INCREASING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AS THE AREA
WILL BE LOCATED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE S/WV TROUGH. THIS WILL ALSO
SERVER TO PUSH SOUTHWARD MUCH DRIER UPPER LEVEL AIR. WHAT WAS
THOUGHT TO BE A PRECIP FREE DAY TODAY IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SOME ISO SHOWERS AS LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
SLOWER TO EXIT THE AREA. STILL...THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGING AND
DRYING ALOFT LOOK TO LIMIT ACTIVITY. WILL GO WITH 10-20% POPS AND
ISO SHRA WORDING FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT AND BE MORE PRONOUNCED AND REALLY LIMIT
CLOUDS AND ANY POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP.

AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO ON THE WARM SIDE AND ABV NORMS
FOR MID SEP. LOOK FOR HIGHS 88-92 TODAY AND SAT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE A
TAD LOWER THE NEXT TWO MORNINGS THANKS TO CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND
SOME LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR ALLOWING FOR MORE READINGS TO REACH THE MID
60S. /CME/

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY

OVERALL, THE LONG TERM CAN BE SUMMARIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY THEN A NICE DOWNWARD TREND TO NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
READINGS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK AS REINFORCING COOL AIR INTRUSIONS
OCCUR OVER THE ARKLAMISS.

BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, A SOUTH-BOUND COOL FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ARKLAMISS FROM THE NORTH AS STRONGER TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES DRIVES STRONGER NW FLOW TOWARDS THE REGION. A
MOISTURE RIBBON LOOKS TO BE TRAPPED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
AND THIS WILL ACT TO INCREASE PWATS TO NEAR 1.5" SUNDAY AFTN FOR THE
NORTH 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS
TO BE WEAK IN CONJUNCTION WITH SLIGHTLY DRY LOW LEVELS PER INVERTED
V BUFR SOUNDINGS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT. FEEL A BAND OF SHOWERS
COULD FORM ALONG BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY BUT WHAT
RAIN COVERAGE THERE IS, SHOULD BE CONFINED TOWARDS TN/MS LINE AND
WILL ONLY CARRY MINIMAL 15-20% POPS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 90 67 91 64 / 17 5 2 3
MERIDIAN 91 65 89 62 / 18 6 1 3
VICKSBURG 90 65 92 64 / 17 4 2 3
HATTIESBURG 92 68 91 65 / 26 6 3 2
NATCHEZ 89 67 90 66 / 23 5 5 3
GREENVILLE 90 67 91 66 / 12 2 4 6
GREENWOOD 90 66 91 65 / 15 3 4 5

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BILLINGS MT

920 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...

THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE FORECAST AREA LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING HAS SHIFTED
EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...HAVE REMOVED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST ACROSS THE EAST FOR THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...A FEW LIGHT RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO SHOW FROM
ABOUT TREASURE COUNTY TO FALLON COUNTY SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SPRINKLES FOR THESE AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
CLOUD DEVELOP TODAY AS THE SUN WARMS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT AND BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUSTY IN THE 15 TO
25 MPH RANGE FOR AREAS MAINLY EAST OF BILLINGS. UPDATED FORECAST
HAS BEEN SENT FOR THE ABOVE ADJUSTMENTS. HOOLEY

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

RADAR TRENDS WERE REFLECTING THE LAST FEW HRRR RUNS IN MOVING
PRECIPITATION RAPIDLY OUT OF THE AREA WITH JUST A HINT OF SOME
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE OVER SE MT. SO WILL UPDATE TO REDUCE POPS
THIS MORNING. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE FOR A COUPLE
OF REASONS. THE FIRST CHANGE WAS TO RAISE POPS A BIT FOR THE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITTING OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. MODELS
PULL THIS SYSTEM INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AND SOUTHERN MONTANA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH
THIS FEATURE AND BECAUSE OF SUCH PULL PRECIPITABLE WATERS AS HIGH
AS 1.5 INCHES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF MONTANA...WHICH IS QUITE
HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. JET FORCING WITH THE UPPER LOW IS
MINIMAL...BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF PWAT AVAILABLE...SHOULD NOT BE
TERRIBLY DIFFICULT TO GET SHOWERS TO FORM.

THE SYSTEM KICKS OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS WILL DRY
THINGS OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. RIDGING FOLLOWS FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS
RIDING WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR A
STRONG DOWNSLOPE PATTERN. THIS IS THE SECOND CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST PACKAGE MADE...A CHANGE TO RAISE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH THIS STRONG DOWNSLOPE PATTERN. WOULD EXPECT DRY
AIR TO GET PULLED UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BECAUSE OF
THAT...MID 80S ARE QUITE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE FLY
IN THE OINTMENT OF WARMER TEMPERATURES COULD BE SOME CLOUD COVER
AS MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TRIES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT APPROACHES THE WEST THURSDAY
EVENING AND WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TWH
&&

.AVIATION...

PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20KTS
ESPECIALLY EAST OF KBIL. OTHERWISE...NO AVIATION HAZARDS ARE
EXPECTED. HOOLEY

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 078 052/074 049/076 053/076 054/080 054/082 054/080
1/B 00/U 00/U 13/T 31/B 11/U 11/B
LVM 075 043/076 041/076 047/074 049/078 048/080 049/078
1/N 10/U 00/U 23/T 21/B 11/B 12/T
HDN 080 050/076 045/078 052/078 052/080 052/084 052/082
1/B 00/U 00/U 13/T 31/B 11/U 11/B
MLS 080 051/075 045/076 052/079 054/078 053/083 053/084
1/N 00/U 00/U 02/T 21/B 11/U 11/B
4BQ 081 051/076 046/076 053/079 054/077 052/082 052/084
1/B 00/U 00/U 12/T 32/T 11/B 11/B
BHK 078 049/073 041/073 047/077 051/073 049/079 050/081
1/N 00/N 00/U 02/T 22/T 11/U 11/B
SHR 077 048/075 045/077 051/075 049/076 049/080 050/080
1/B 10/U 00/U 24/T 42/T 10/U 11/B

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BILLINGS MT

552 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING NE THROUGH MT IN A
POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WAS OVER SE MT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET WAS ALSO SUPPORTING THE
PRECIPITATION.

MODELS WERE SIMILAR IN MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH INTO E MT TODAY.
WHILE THE SSEO DID NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE HRRR WAS DOING WELL AND MOVED EVERYTHING
OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z. CONCERNED THIS MOVEMENT MAY BE A
LITTLE FAST GIVEN RADAR TRENDS...SO HAVE KEPT POPS OVER THE AREA
THIS MORNING...MAINLY E AND S OF KBIL. ALSO RAISED POPS TO CHANCE
IN SE MT. GIVEN STEEP MID AND UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...WILL KEEP THUNDER IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. FOR
THE AFTERNOON...REMOVED POPS OVER KSHR DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND KEPT
A LOW POP OVER THE NE BIG HORNS. MODELS AGREED THAT AIRMASS WILL
STABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON AS IT DRIES OUT. BASED ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS...WILL HAVE A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY OVER MOST AREAS WITH
THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BASED ON MIXING PROFILES AND WENT CLOSE TO CONSALL GUIDANCE.

WILL HAVE A FLAT NW FLOW OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN UPPER
RIDGING AND DRY WEATHER BUILDS IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. HAVE DRIED OUT THE EVENING WITH LIFT AND MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO EXIT THE REGION.

SAT WILL BE LESS WINDY THAN TODAY...AS FAST FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS E
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER IT WILL STILL BE WINDY OVER PLACES
LIKE KBHK AND EKALAKA. EASTERLY WINDS ON SAT WILL INHIBIT MIXING
OVER THE AREA SO LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

.AVIATION...

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST
MONTANA THIS MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. EXPECT GUSTS TO 20KTS ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA TODAY. TWH

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 078 052/074 049/076 053/076 054/080 054/082 054/080
3/B 00/U 00/U 13/T 31/B 11/U 11/B
LVM 075 043/076 041/076 047/074 049/078 048/080 049/078
3/N 10/U 00/U 23/T 21/B 11/B 12/T
HDN 080 050/076 045/078 052/078 052/080 052/084 052/082
4/B 00/U 00/U 13/T 31/B 11/U 11/B
MLS 080 051/075 045/076 052/079 054/078 053/083 053/084
4/N 00/U 00/U 02/T 21/B 11/U 11/B
4BQ 081 051/076 046/076 053/079 054/077 052/082 052/084
4/T 00/U 00/U 12/T 32/T 11/B 11/B
BHK 078 049/073 041/073 047/077 051/073 049/079 050/081
4/N 00/N 00/U 02/T 22/T 11/U 11/B
SHR 077 048/075 045/077 051/075 049/076 049/080 050/080
5/B 10/U 00/U 24/T 42/T 10/U 11/B

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

339 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

.AVIATION...

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 078 052/074 049/076 053/076 054/080 054/082 054/080
1/B 00/U 00/U 13/T 31/B 11/U 11/B
LVM 075 043/076 041/076 047/074 049/078 048/080 049/078
1/N 10/U 00/U 23/T 21/B 11/B 12/T
HDN 080 050/076 045/078 052/078 052/080 052/084 052/082
2/T 00/U 00/U 13/T 31/B 11/U 11/B
MLS 080 051/075 045/076 052/079 054/078 053/083 053/084
2/T 00/U 00/U 02/T 21/B 11/U 11/B
4BQ 081 051/076 046/076 053/079 054/077 052/082 052/084
3/T 00/U 00/U 12/T 32/T 11/B 11/B
BHK 078 049/073 041/073 047/077 051/073 049/079 050/081
3/T 00/N 00/U 02/T 22/T 11/U 11/B
SHR 077 048/075 045/077 051/075 049/076 049/080 050/080
2/T 10/U 00/U 24/T 42/T 10/U 11/B

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

308 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. THOUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY QUIET...AS MOISTURE
MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RAMP BACK UP AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE FROM WEST TO
EAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE WEST AND BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...STORM COVERAGE WILL BE
DWINDLING...AND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL AREAWIDE.

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH QPF PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. THIS IS
MAINLY BECAUSE ODILE CONTINUES TO STAY SOUTH OF PROJECTED TRACKS.
INTERESTINGLY...MOST OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW QPF BULLS-
EYES OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THRU THE OVERNIGHT...BUT
THE LATEST HRRR HAS TAKEN THE OPPOSITE TUNE...WITH ALMOST NO PRECIP
PREDICTED. EXPECT REALITY TO BE CLOSER TO THE DRIER
SCENARIO...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS SHOULD PERCOLATE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
PLAINS...MUCH LIKE WHAT IS OCCURRING NOW. HAVE ALSO LEFT IN ISOLATED
THUNDER...BUT NOT CONFIDENT MUCH OF THAT WILL HAPPEN.

AS ODILE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND LOSE ITS IDENTITY...ITS
POOL OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER WEST TEXAS ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OFF THE COAST OF
CALI...AND A WEAK UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER NM. AS A
RESULT...LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY. THOUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET IN TERMS OF CONVECTION...AS
THE POOL OF MOISTURE IS ADVECTED WESTWARD INTO THE PLAINS...UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTN AND EVENING. SHOULD ALSO SEE AN EAST CANYON
WIND PICK UP IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS
THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NEWD OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED INTO NM FROM THE S AND SE.
INCREASED POPS AREAWIDE...THOUGH GENERALLY STAY A BIT CONSERVATIVE.

WESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ON MONDAY...GENERALLY AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH/LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. DRIER AIR WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE NW BUT STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
PASS MONDAY NIGHT...AND FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THIS
SHOULD TEMPORARILY HALT ANY MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM MOVING NORTHWARD.

A WEAK UPPER HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER NM FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK...THOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE AROUND TO
SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. THE 12Z GFS AND LAST NIGHTS ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
LARGE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN US NEXT FRIDAY THRU THE
WEEKEND. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING UP ANOTHER BOUT OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FOR NM NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW
THE TROUGH AS FAR SOUTH...THUS NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION
NORTHWARD. STAY TUNED.

.FIRE WEATHER...
REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL KEEP HIGH HUMIDITY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH WETTING RAIN REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR AREAS EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. EASTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY INCREASING LOW LEVEL RH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF. DRYING VIA A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING
RAIN WOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. GAP WIND GUSTS RANGING
FROM 30 TO 45 MPH WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND A MODERATELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR
WEST WILL ENHANCE WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL AREAWIDE FOR SUNDAY.
GREATEST EMPHASIS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL 5 TO 10 DEGREES AREA WIDE BUT REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY. VENTILATION RATES LOOK TO BE
FAIR TO GOOD FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR.

MONDAY WILL STILL SEE WETTING RAIN CHANCES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...LESS WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST. VENTILATION NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
A LOT BETWEEN SUNDAY TO MONDAY WITH BETTER READINGS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I40.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING A DRYING TREND OVER THE
AREA STARTING TUESDAY ALTHOUGH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL
ANTICIPATED MID WEEK AND FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS
EASTWARD. VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO LOWER SOME TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
BUT NOT FALL OUT OF SIGHT. MODELS COULD IMPROVE THE NUMBERS AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THAT PERIOD.

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STILL ON TAP FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND. MODELS REMAIN A LITTLE DIFFERENT IN TERMS OF TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF IMPACTS. THE GFS IS MUCH DEEPER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE TROUGH THUS SOME WIND IMPACTS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT. THIS
IMPACTS VENTILATION RATES. ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER. LOWER CONFIDENCE
PERIOD FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.

32/50

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SH AND VCSH WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FROM REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL
IMPACT TERMINAL SITES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH GREATER IFR CONFIDENCE FOR TCC. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO IMPACT SITES EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN. WINDS WILL SHIFT EASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY SO THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS IMPACTING CENTRAL
TERMINAL SITES SUCH AS ABQ/SAF. BEST CHANCE OF LOW CIGS IMPACTING
CENTRAL LOCATIONS WOULD BE SAF AND USED SCT025 TO INDICATE THAT
AFTER 8Z.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 54 88 60 83 / 5 5 20 30
DULCE........................... 45 86 49 80 / 10 10 20 40
CUBA............................ 50 84 51 78 / 10 10 20 40
GALLUP.......................... 46 84 51 80 / 10 10 20 40
EL MORRO........................ 48 78 50 75 / 10 10 20 40
GRANTS.......................... 49 82 54 77 / 10 10 20 40
QUEMADO......................... 51 78 53 74 / 10 20 20 50
GLENWOOD........................ 54 83 52 82 / 20 30 30 30
CHAMA........................... 40 80 44 74 / 10 10 20 40
LOS ALAMOS...................... 55 81 56 74 / 20 10 20 40
PECOS........................... 50 77 53 69 / 20 10 30 50
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 46 78 48 75 / 10 10 20 40
RED RIVER....................... 40 71 43 67 / 10 20 30 50
ANGEL FIRE...................... 37 75 38 69 / 10 10 30 50
TAOS............................ 48 81 50 74 / 10 10 20 30
MORA............................ 48 76 50 67 / 20 10 30 50
ESPANOLA........................ 56 87 55 80 / 10 10 20 30
SANTA FE........................ 53 80 56 75 / 20 10 20 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 54 84 56 77 / 20 10 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 59 84 61 79 / 20 10 20 40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 62 85 63 80 / 20 10 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 60 86 60 82 / 20 10 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 61 85 61 81 / 10 10 20 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 57 86 58 82 / 10 10 20 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 60 88 61 82 / 10 10 20 30
SOCORRO......................... 61 86 62 83 / 20 10 30 40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 56 80 57 78 / 20 10 20 40
TIJERAS......................... 55 82 58 78 / 20 10 30 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 47 80 49 74 / 20 10 30 50
CLINES CORNERS.................. 55 76 54 70 / 20 10 40 60
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 57 77 57 70 / 20 20 40 50
CARRIZOZO....................... 60 80 60 73 / 30 20 40 50
RUIDOSO......................... 55 73 53 70 / 40 20 50 60
CAPULIN......................... 53 77 53 71 / 20 10 20 30
RATON........................... 55 82 51 76 / 10 10 20 40
SPRINGER........................ 53 83 53 76 / 20 10 30 40
LAS VEGAS....................... 51 78 51 71 / 20 10 40 50
CLAYTON......................... 60 81 58 78 / 20 20 20 30
ROY............................. 57 79 56 74 / 30 10 30 40
CONCHAS......................... 63 80 62 78 / 30 20 40 40
SANTA ROSA...................... 63 79 61 74 / 30 20 50 50
TUCUMCARI....................... 63 82 63 80 / 50 30 30 40
CLOVIS.......................... 63 76 62 76 / 60 40 40 50
PORTALES........................ 63 76 62 77 / 70 40 40 50
FORT SUMNER..................... 64 79 62 74 / 40 30 50 50
ROSWELL......................... 66 79 65 78 / 50 20 50 60
PICACHO......................... 60 76 60 70 / 40 20 50 60
ELK............................. 58 73 57 67 / 40 20 50 60

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

210 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
OVERNIGHT...THEN BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. FOLLOWING A
CHILLY MORNING...FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL. THEN AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL PUMP
NOTICEABLY WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FOR SATURDAY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...WITH
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. 11-3.9U
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY CLOUD COVER SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS ALONG A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
ON THE LAKE. CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO EXPAND OVERNIGHT WITH THE 00Z BUF
SOUNDING SHOWING AN INVERSION DEVELOPING AT AROUND 900MB. CLOUDS
WILL SHIFT...HOWEVER...AS WINDS ALOFT VEER FROM NORTH TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE THE CLOUDS ON LAKE ONTARIO TO MOVE ONTO
LAND OVERNIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT THE HRRR DEPICTS. THESE SUBTLETIES
MAKE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY TRICKY.
HOWEVER...LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA SUGGEST TEMPERATURES
WILL LARGELY STAY ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME PATCHY
FROST IN AREAS THAT CLEAR AND THE COOLEST OF VALLEYS. IN THESE
LOCATIONS...EXPECT INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER
30S...WITH LOWER 40S MORE COMMONPLACE ALONG THE LAKE SHORES...AND
WHERE CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT SFC WINDS WILL PROMOTE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS UP HERE. TEMPERATURES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL DROP INTO
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH THE COOLEST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TUG
HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. WITH THIS IN MIND...FREEZE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES...WITH A FROST
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR OSWEGO COUNTY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
PROVIDING A NICE DAY...WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
WILL HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK...WITH COOLER UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT COMMENCE UNTIL A BIT LATER IN THE DAY.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE STABLE ANTICYCLONE WILL RETREAT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD REALLY BECOME PRONOUNCED DURING THIS TIME
WITH A POTENTIALLY VERY WARM DAY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM ANY
COOLING INFLUENCES DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY FROM MID DAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH THE FLOW OF INCOMING WARM AIR
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...BY THIS MAY BE A
TAD CONSERVATIVE WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SURGING TO NEAR +14C
ESPECIALLY IF MORE SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. SOME OF THE FAVORED
DOWNSLOPE AREAS COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. THE STRENGTHENING
GRADIENT FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES TO NEAR 40 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT IS STILL SLATED TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER
STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LARGELY TO OUR
EAST. A SWATH OF DRY SLOTTING/SUBSIDENCE WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWING THE
FRONT...BEFORE RENEWED SHOWER CHANCES DEVELOP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. AFTER
THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY BY MIDWEEK AS STRONG
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS. PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER...
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING
THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND THIS WILL PROVIDE THE VAST
MAJORITY OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN TIER...AND
WITHIN A FEW MILES OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM KIAG AND KROC. FOR THE
LATTER...LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS WILL REDUCE CIGS TO BETWEEN 800 AND
2500 FT AT TIMES...BUT A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW STRATUS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE SRN TIER. SEVERAL HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR BOTH KELZ AND KJHW.

AS WE PUSH PAST SUNRISE...FRIDAY WILL BE A PROBLEM FREE DAY FOR
AVIATORS AS WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ANY CLOUD COVER AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRESENT THE
RISK FOR SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. WILL MENTION THIS LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD FOR THE FAR WESTERN SITES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH NEGLIGIBLE WAVES. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER CANADIAN WATERS OF LK ONTARIO WHERE SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WINDS WILL PRODUCE WAVES THAT WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

FOR FRIDAY...THE SFC WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL KEEP AN
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE FOR LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH WINDS AND
WAVES REMAINING WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

WINDS WILL FRESHEN AND VEER TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
START TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS COULD
RESULT IN SOME WIND BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...WITH THE HIGHEST
WAVES BEING CONCENTRATED IN CANADIAN WATERS.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ007-008.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ006.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/JM
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JM/RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

1032 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AS A LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN US COAST
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH LATE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM SAT...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO MOVE ITS WAY ONSHORE THIS EVENING WITH POCKETS OF
HEAVIER RAIN WITH SOME SUBTLE ROTATION NOTED. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ONSHORE AS THE COASTAL LOW APPROACHES WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION PENETRATING A BIT FURTHER INLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO OCNL HEAVY RAIN
MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS OUTER BANKS/CARTERET COUNTY EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ENHANCED MID LEVEL OMEGA/FGEN
OBSERVED IN RUC X-SECTIONS. HAVE INC POPS A BIT MORE TO ACCOUNT
FOR NEAR TERM TRENDS AND EXPECTED INC IN VORT ADVECTION ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE CORRESPONDINGLY INC QPF AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS DUAL POL P-RATES JIVING WITH OBSERVED RATES
OF 1 TO OCNL 2 INCHES PER HOUR. BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TO ROTATE ONSHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LOW AXIS MOVES NORTHWARD
JUST OFFSHORE CONTINUING STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT AND ACTS TO
GENERATE STRONG OMEGA/FGEN. LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS CERTAINLY WILL BE A THREAT...AND HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN FCST GRIDS. WILL SEE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...THE COASTAL LOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO DEPART THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH DECREASING POPS FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT RAIN TO BE OFF THE OUTER BANKS BY
AROUND MID AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS
WELL WITH CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON MOST PLACES. AGAIN FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE SOMETIME DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY. GFS/NAM12/ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM OR TWO WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND SOUTH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH VERY COMFORTABLE FALL LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH MID/UPPER 50S INLAND AND
LOW/MID 60S COAST. GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD
WITH THE ECMWF CUTTING OFF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF DEEP MID-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. AS A
RESULT...THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER SHOWING PRECIPITATION EVEN ON
TUESDAY WHILE THE GFS IS DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE TRENDED
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TOWARD THE GFS WHICH HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT...BUT CANNOT IGNORE THE ECMWF SOLUTION COMPLETELY WHICH
IS CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE...AND THUS HAVE A SMALL POP IN THE
FORECAST...MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS WEDNESDAY. WITH INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE COAST ON THURSDAY...BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND CONTINUED FEED OF MOISTURE
FROM THE ATLANTIC ON A SOUTHEAST FLOW...WILL LIKEWISE HAVE SMALL
POPS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS
MID/UPPER 70S WITH A FEW LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM SAT...LARGE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE OF
THE NC COAST THIS EVENING. BULK OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL
REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINALS...THOUGH WILL SEE OCNL BOUTS OF
HEAVIER SHOWERS POSSIBLY AFFECT ESP THE KEWN AND KOAJ TAF SITES
WITH MORE SCT ACTIVITY INLAND. CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR FROM EAST TO
WEST ACROSS EASTERN NC THIS EVENING. COULD EVEN SEE SOME IFR
CONDITIONS WITH BEST CONFIDENCE OF A FEW HOURS OF IFR CIGS AT KEWN
WHERE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST LATE TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY ON SUNDAY AS AREA OF LOW PRES
MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST AND WINDS TURN WNW BRINGING IN MUCH
DRIER AIR.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...COULD SEE SOME TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ON MONDAY. WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH...TUESDAY SHOULD BE VFR. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY VFR ON WEDNESDAY
AS WELL...AS MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON EXTENT
OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. A BETTER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS EXISTS THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR AND PSBL IFR
CONDITIONS.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 10 PM SAT...WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO RAPIDLY INCREASE AS A
BROAD COASTAL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. ANTICIPATE WINDS TO
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS ESPECIALLY. SCA IN EFFECT FOR
ALL COASTAL WATERS. PAMLICO SOUND IS STILL IN QUESTION WITH SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME OVERNIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE MONITOR AND WILL ISSUE ADVISORIES/STATEMENTS IF NEEDED.
SEAS ARE GENERALLY 6 TO 8 FEET AND ENE WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

CONTINUED ON STRONG SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BLENDING THE HIGH RES
NAM/ARW INTO THE FORECAST FOR WINDS. SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALL
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. SEAS REMAIN HIGH AND HAVE JUMPED
TO 7 TO 8 FEET ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS
WITH 6 FOOT SEAS TO THE SOUTH. USED NWPS GUIDANCE AND HAD TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE EARLY PERIOD TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
HIGHER SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WILL SEE TREACHEROUS BOATING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS
SEAS BUILD TO 8 TO 9 FEET ACROSS THE WATERS AS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM SATURDAY...AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED PERIOD EXPECTED ON
THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. BASED ON LATEST OUTPUT FROM LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS MODEL...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
NORTH OF OCRACOKE INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR SEAS. AFTER A BRIEF LULL
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS/SEAS BUILD AGAIN TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH LONG FETCH NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND STRONG 1035 MB HIGH OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OFFSHORE. LONGER
RANGE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ELEVATED SEAS AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

$$
SYNOPSIS...RSB
NEAR TERM...RSB/TL/LEP
SHORT TERM...RSB
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...RSB/CTC/TL
MARINE...RSB/CTC/LEP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

1010 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST UP THE THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT...AND THEN UP THE MID-
ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM SATURDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE OVER GEORGIA (WHICH HAS A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
PRESENTATION ON WATER VAPOR) AND ASSOCIATED SUB-1010MB SURFACE LOW
EAST OF SAVANNAH THIS EVENING WILL RACE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST STATES. THE RAIN SHIELD ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE HAS
BEEN ONLY INCHING ITS WAY WESTWARD THIS EVENING...BARELY REACHING
THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SAMPSON COUNTY SO FAR. THE DRY AIR RIDGE
OVER THE PIEDMONT AND MOSTLY NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD KEEP ANY (VERY LIGHT)
MEASURABLE PRECIP STAYING EAST OF I-95...WHICH RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE
MOSTLY SUGGESTED. HIGH CLOUDS OF VARYING OPACITY WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTH ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA AS THE WAVE LIFTS
NORTH...KEEPING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST
EVENING...AROUND 60 IN THE WEST TO MID/UPPER 60S IN THE EAST.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST UP THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. CENTRAL NC WILL
LARGELY REMAIN ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/UPPER
LOW WITH BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG ATLANTIC MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
DPVA. SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING ONSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INLAND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT TO SMALL
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SE/EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE. LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S WEST TO MIDS 60S EAST.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OFF CAPE LOOKOUT SUNDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY ACCELERATE UP THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY AS IT GETS
ABSORBED BY THE AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING SEWD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS AND
ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL ALSO SERVE TO PROPEL A COLD FRONT EAST
TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC
SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS COME IN JUST SLIGHTLY
WETTER...POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIKELY RULE OUT ANY POTENTIAL FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP IN ASSOC/W THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE ADDED SOME
SPRINKLES EVERYWHERE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S GIVEN FROPA CLOSE TO SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...

AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE
EAST COAST...A COLD FRONT WILL BE PROPELLED THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON A FAIRLY POTENT VORT MAX ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH...BUT GIVEN THAT THE FRONT SHOULD
BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ACTIVITY
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA (I.E. TIP OF SAMPSON COUNTY). HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALLING INTO MOSTLY THE LOW TO MID 50S.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST US...WILL RIDGE
DOWN INTO CENTRAL NC...RESULTING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S (WITH MAYBE SOME
UPPER 40S IN THE NORMAL COOLER LOCALES).

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH TOWARDS THE MIDDLE/END OF THE
WEEK AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE AND BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY TAKE ON MORE OF AN EAST OF NORTHERLY COMPONENT (AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST) ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TO
RETURN TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A
WEAKNESS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH
DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST (ALTHOUGH TO VARYING DEGREES
AMONG THE MODELS). THIS WOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NC). FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST UNTIL MODELS CONVERGE TO A SOLUTION...BUT WILL INDICATE
INCREASED CLOUDINESS. ALTHOUGH...WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW END SLIGHT
CHANCES POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN THE MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF.

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 805 PM SATURDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFFSHORE THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT.
A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT KFAY AND ESPECIALLY KRWI IN THE 03Z-08Z TIME FRAME...WHEN THE
OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED MOIST CIRCULATION PASS NEAREST THE NC
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL OTHERWISE LINGER OVER THE INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES AND RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AT
KINT/KGSO/KRDU. INITIALLY LIGHT NE SFC WINDS WILL BACK TO NW
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY - INCLUDING A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS
AND GUSTINESS INTO THE UPPER TEENS KTS AT KRWI/KFAY - THEN TO SW...
WITH A PERIOD STRONGER WINDS AND GUSTINESS INTO THE UPPER TEENS KTS
AT KINT/KGSO IN THE FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNSET.

LOOKING AHEAD: A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC SUNDAY
NIGHT. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...A PERIOD OF 6-8
THOUSAND FT CEILINGS...AND EVEN A SPRINKLE OR SHOWER...MAY ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND PROVIDE FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
AND RAIN WED-THU...WITH RELATIVE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE
AND POOREST CONDITIONS AT EASTERN TERMINALS.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...MWS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

200 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
EXTEND DOWN THROUGH VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY... THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM THURSDAY...

A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
BECOME PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING.
AIDED BY WEAK TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...THE
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE WITHIN A RIDGE OF THETA-E AND
SOME SHALLOW INSTABILITY...ABOUT 500 J/KG MUCAPE... BELOW 600MB.
NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL SLOWLY ERODE THE CAPE AND INCREASE THE
CINH...BUT THE HRRR SUGGESTS SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE WELL PAST
MIDNIGHT. THE FREEZING LEVEL ON THE KGSO RAOB WAS AROUND 10K
FT...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...THOUGH THIS WILL
BECOME LESS LIKELY AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TO LIKELY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A TREND
DOWNWARD AFTER 06Z. LOWS UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S SOUTHWEST.

FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT: RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTING TO OUR SE WITH RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT PERSISTS BUT IS CONFINED TO THE
FAR SRN AND SE CWA... WHERE PW VALUES WILL HOVER NEAR 1.4-1.5". THE
ONSHORE-DIRECTED LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW COULD DRAW SHALLOW SEA
BREEZE SHOWERS INLAND OVER THE FAR SE CWA. ISOLATED UPSLOPE-
SUPPORTED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WRN CWA AS WELL. IN
GENERAL HOWEVER... THE TRADITIONAL MODELS REMAIN TOO WET... SHOWING
PRECIP COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA... WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
WILL KEEP ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE WRN/SRN AND SE EDGES OF THE CWA
FRI AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP
SLIGHTLY... INDICATING HIGHS OF 76-81. LOWS 56-61 WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WEST AND MOSTLY CLEAR EAST. -GIH

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 224 PM THURSDAY...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY...AS AN EXTENSION OF THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL US RIDGE NOSES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE AREA...SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM DIVING
SEWD OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE REMNANT LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. AT THE SURFACE...DRY AIR SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL WEDGE
SOUTHWESTWARD DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
AND GEORGIA. RESULTANT LOW PWATS AND A STABLE AIR COLUMN WILL SECURE
DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY: AMPLIFYING/DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
POLAR WESTERLIES WILL PICK UP THE LINGERING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND KICK IT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...LIFTING UP
THE NC COAST AND THEN OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. LITTLE TO NO
SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE...BUT A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OWING TO THE APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOP
INVOF OF THIS TROUGH...BUT WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. SUNDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE NEXT FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES PROJECTED TO CLIMB 20 METERS ABOVE NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 224 PM THURSDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: 40 TO 60 METER HEIGHT FALLS TRAVERSING
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE AMPLIFYING NORTHER STREAM TROUGH
ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN US WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING . WRT THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY...THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE
FASTER SOLUTION OF THE EC...WHICH HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA BY 18Z MONDAY. GIVEN THE FASTER TIMING...SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING AND GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...CONVECTIVE/RAIN CHANCES REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE. WILL
LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT FROPA COULD END BEING A NON-
MEASURABLE/SPRINKLE EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. FASTER FROPA WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S NW TO LOWER 80S SE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: LIKE CLOCKWORK...A STRONG +1030MB CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH... ANCHORED UNDERNEATH THE UPPER CONFLUENCE ZONE IN THE
WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WILL PROVIDE THE FIRST DAYS OF FALL(AUTUMNAL EQUINOX
BEGINS MONDAY SEPT 22 AT 10:29 PM EDT)WITH BONA FIDE FALL
CONDITIONS. DRY WITH TEMPERATURES 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS 70
TO 75. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT.

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE YADKIN RIVER VALLEY WILL
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z IN VICINITY OF KINT AND KGSO.
THESE SHOWERS MAY CAUSE A BRIEF INSTANCE OF MVFR VISIBILITY.

LATER TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE
NORTH. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS HIGH WILL RESULT IN AN LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS NC. THIS FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE A CLOUD DECK WITH
BASES 4500-6000FT WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS HIGHLY PROBABLE OVER THE
PIEDMONT...AND SCATTER-BROKEN SKY CONDITIONS IN THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN. AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS FURTHER INTO CENTRAL NC LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION...
DIMINISHING THE CLOUD COVERAGE.

A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SPREAD A VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF NC LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY AND CROSS
CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS MAY OCCUR WITH THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR MASS BUILDS
INTO OUR AREA.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...WSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

230 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

THE 12 UTC GLOBAL SUITE AND THE 14-15 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNSET ALONG AND NORTH OF THE US HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR...BEHIND A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT WITH 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN TRAIL. SEVERE CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AND WILL FADE
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.

FOR SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN ALBERTA
THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST POPS ARE FOCUSED
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST...WITH THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST TO
BE PRECIPITATION FREE. DID INCLUDE AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. SATURDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH IN MONTANA AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER LAKE WINNIPEG. THE 12 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
DEPICT 30-35 KTS OF FLOW AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...WHICH
EQUATES TO BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS THAT REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A
CUTOFF LOW OVER CALIFORNIA/NEVADA...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE DAKOTAS. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE CUTOFF LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD SLOWLY
COINCIDENT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE`S EASTWARD MOVEMENT. DURING THIS
TIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MILD AND DRY AIR TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY MORNING FROM THE UPPER 30S WEST TO 40S CENTRAL...WARMING TO
LOWS IN THE 50S BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHS SUNDAY UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...AND IN THE 70S ON MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY THE MEANDERING CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE
A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST...AND UPSTREAM
RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LEADING TO A
DRY END OF THE WEEK. CONTINUED MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 50S...AND HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
FRONT...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KMOT AND KISN. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 35
KTS.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1256 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THE SECONDARY
COLD FRONT IS JUST ENTERING NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 18 UTC.
RELATIVELY ELEVATED DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 2. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 855 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

AS OF 1330 UTC...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR
CAVALIER IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SELFRIDGE IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ALONG THIS FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 60S. THIS FRONT WILL EXIT INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY
MID DAY. THEREAFTER...DRIER AIR AND WELL MIXED CONDITIONS
OVERTAKE MUCH OF THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING
WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE US HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND ANOTHER AREA STARTING TO DEVELOP
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FALLS WELL IN LINE WITH
LATEST HRRR OUTPUT. MORNING UPDATE WILL ADDRESS THESE AREAS AND
REMOVE POPS OVER THE FAR WEST.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT AND PARALLEL/ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF AN H300 JET. TO THE NORTH ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT
H500. FOLLOWED THE HRRR AND NAM FOR POP GUIDANCE THIS MORNING.
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER...MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL THIS AM. PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
FRONT AND H300 JET TAKES HOLD. THEN THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPSTREAM
H300 JET WILL POSITION ITSELF TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
A LITTLE E BREEZY WEST AFTER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY PRIMARILY OVER
NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS AREA REMAINS UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW AND A POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE AREA AS THE WAVE DIVES
THROUGH AND STRONGER WINDS MIX DOWN. WINDS WILL TAPER BY EVENING
WITH PRECIP ENDING AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK AS RIDGE AXIS WORKS EAST. BY
TUESDAY...A COMPACT UPPER LOW WORKS THROUGH THE RIDGE AND APPROACHES
THE REGION...SLOWLY WORKING OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. MODELS
STILL STRUGGLING SOME ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THOUGH AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS HAS ENTERED INTO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...WITH A SECOND...WEAKER FRONT ENTERING THE
NORTHWEST...MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
FRONT...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KMOT AND KISN. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 35
KTS.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

855 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 854 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AS OF
1330 UTC WILL MOVE INTO MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON...YIELDING A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KISN AND
KMOT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG WESTERLY WIND GUSTS NEAR
30 KTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

642 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SCT -SHRA WITH ISOLD -TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THRU THE REGION. WITH LIMITED COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING IN TERMINAL FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

339 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH
THIS MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. VFR AT ALL TAF SITES. CURRENT
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS TO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1251 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

00Z SOUNDING CONFIRMS MID LEVEL CAPPING. NORTH HALF OF THE STATE
FAIRLY DRY SO TRIMMED POPS. ALSO CAPPING SEEMS TO BE LIMITING
CONVECTION SO TRIMMED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALL AREAS EXCEPT SOUTH
CENTRAL THROUGH 12Z.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE. MAIN
MODIFICATIONS WERE TO POPS...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...AND FOR A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS MY SOUTHWEST.

UPDATE

ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

ROBUST CAPPING INVERSION KEEPING A LID ON STRONG CONVECTION EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DESPITE 1-2K
JOULES OF CAPE AND STRONG 0-6KM WIND SHEAR OF 40-45KTS. AN AREA OF
ELEVATED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF NORTH
DAKOTA...ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CONTINUES EASTWARD.
MODIFIED POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND NEAR TERM HR MODEL
OUTPUT...TAKING THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY PRESENT WILL MENTION AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE.

MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAIN FRIDAY MORNING WILL
BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CONVECTIVE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE COMPLICATED BY A RELATIVELY
STRONG LOW LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA BUT WITH MID AND HIGH CAPE ABOVE AS MOST FLOW
OVERRIDES. WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
WARM ADVECTION OVER THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY GENERATING SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS CURRENT
NAM MODEL FAIRLY WELL PREDICTS. LATEST HRRR DOES NOT HANDLE THIS
WELL. CURRENT THINKING HAS THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WITH THE
COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT. POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE STILL A BIT SPOTTY
OWING TO THE CAP...MOSTLY 20 TO 30 POPS. BY FRIDAY NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND
FOCUSED ON THE NORTH HALF FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT 55 TO 65
AND HIGHS FRIDAY 78 TO 86.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW. THUS WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES.

THEN THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERN RIDGE PUSHES EASTWARD...ALONG WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MONDAY.

ALONG WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
SATURDAY WILL MEANDER SLOWLY BENEATH THE RIDGE CREATING A REX BLOCK
OVER THE ROCKIES. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE WESTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD AND THE MEANDERING UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND LIFTING
THE UPPER LOW NORTHEASTWARD - APPROACHING NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY.
THIS SLOW-MOVING LOW WILL BRING SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER TO
THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
REGARDING ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR PLACEMENT/TIMING OF PRECIPITATION.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

AT MIDNIGHT CDT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS TRACKING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SOUTH TONIGHT. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE NORTH OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA.
HOWEVER...TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE IN TAF FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

748 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MILD NIGHT
IS IN STORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
COOLER AIR WILL DROP IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT...LEADING TO SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...WITH
PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S IN OUTLYING AREAS. MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WILL FEATURE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL BRING MILD
DAYS...COOL NIGHTS...AND LOW HUMIDITY. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...SPED UP ARRIVAL OF RAIN CHANCES BY AN HOUR OR TWO BASED
ON TIME TRENDS FROM RADAR ON NOW WELL-DEVELOPED LINE OF CONVECTION
FROM NERN IND BACK TO WCNTL IND. MOST CONCENTRATED N-S PORTION OF
LINE WITH HISTORY OF WIND DAMAGE WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. REST OF LINE SEEMS TO BE STRUGGLING TO BE
SEVERE...AND WE/RE WATCHING PORTION OF THE LINE FROM LOGANSPORT
BACK TO IL BORDER AS THE PORTION THAT WILL AFFECT US. GUST FRONT
NOW KICKING SWRD FROM SEGMENT OF LINE FROM COLUMBIA CITY BACK TO
LOGANSPORT SO THIS PORTION OF LINE LIKELY TO WEAKEN. MESOA OVER
IND/OH SHOWS INSTBY DECREASING WITH EWRD EXTENT INTO ILN CWA AND WITH
SUNSET APPROACHING STILL THINK OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS MARGINAL.
DID UPDATE HWO TO GIVE HEADS UP TO WCNTL OHIO/ECNTL IND COUNTIES
THAT A GUSTY/WEAKENING LINE OF STORMS IS LIKELY 00Z-02Z. REF
MCD#1741 THAT A NEW WATCH /IF ISSUED/ MAY GRAB A COUPLE OF OUR FAR
NWRN COUNTIES. ALSO PULLED RAIN CHANCES IN NRN KY AS CUMULUS/PVS
SHRA DOWN THERE HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION -> SEVERAL FOCI FOR PRECIPITATION NOW THROUGH
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY MORNING. FIRST...IS IN A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS
OF HIGHER THETA-E THAT RUNS NORTHEAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO
THE CVG AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER DWPTS HAVE WITHSTOOD
MIXING TO REMAIN IN THE MID 60S YIELDING SOME MARGINAL MLCAPE FROM
200-500 J/KG. CONFLUENT FLOW/VERY WEAK CONVERGENCE HAS LED TO THIS
EXTENSION OF BUOYANCY AND SOME ISOLD SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS
AXIS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH ABT 7-8 PM TIED STRONGLY
TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW/INSTBY. HAVE PLACED A SMALL RAIN CHANCE
IN PARTS OF OUR NRN KY COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS THREAT.

LARGER CONCERN IS STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH IS SHIFTING THROUGH
WI/IA/NRN IL ATTM ATTENDANT TO A COUPLE OF HEIGHT FALL
CENTERS...ONE IN WI THIS AFTN AND ANOTHER VERY COMPACT ONE IN ERN
ND. LOW LEVEL FORCING IS STRONG WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH...AND DEEP LAYER FLOW IS INCREASING AS THE THROUGH
AMPLIFIES WITH TIME TONIGHT.

CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY ERUPTED AS OF 19Z JUST SOUTH OF CHICAGO
AND SPC WATCH #504 ACCOMPANIES THIS INCREASE IN CONVECTION OFF TO
OUR NW. ACCORDING TO 20.12Z AWR-WRF...20.09Z SREF...AND MULTIPLE
WELL-AGREED UPON HRRR RUNS...A RATHER ROBUST LINE OF STORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND PUSH
EAST/NORTHEAST. ORIENTATION/MAGNITUDE /30+KTS BY TONIGHT/ OF 0-3KM
SHEAR VECTOR IS FAVORABLE FOR SOME DURATION/ORGANIZATION TO LINE
SEGMENTS WHICH CAN ORIENT IN MORE N-S FASHION OR SOME VARIATION OF
THAT. NOT SURPRISINGLY...HRRR RUNS HAVE DEMONSTRATED SPORADIC SWATHS
OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS > 50KTS ACROSS NRN IND POTENTIALLY
INVOLVING NWRN/WCNTL OH LATER THIS EVE /AFTER 10 PM OR SO/. REALLY
LIKE THE 5% WIND CONTOUR INTO WCNTL OHIO BASED ON THE HRRR/ARW WRF
SOLUTIONS SHOWING A WEAKENING ORGANIZED LINE COMING INTO OUR AREA
AROUND 10 PM...PERHAPS WITH SOME 40-50 MPH WINDS. THIS FITS
CURRENT MESOA WHICH HAS MINIMUM OF INSTBY IN WRN OH DUE TO MIXED
DWPTS IN THE 50S...SO LINE SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT
CROSSES INTO OHIO...DESPITE BRINGING A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE
VIA ADVECTION.

STRUGGLED A LOT WITH RAIN CHANCES...FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES WITH DYING LINE INTO ABOUT THE NWRN 1/2 OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...BUT ALL CAMS/PARAMETRIZED DATA SHOWING ACTIVITY
BECOMING MORE SCT WITH TIME AS NIGHT WEARS ON. SO RAIN CHANCES
OVERNIGHT RANGE FROM A LOW CONFIDENCE 20% IN FAR SOUTH/EAST UP TO
A 70% CHANCE OR SO IN WCNTL OH. ALL WILL DEPEND HOW QUICKLY THE
INCOMING LINE WEAKENS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FIRST HEIGHT FALL CENTER MENTIONED ABOVE PULLS EAST OF THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING TAKING PRIMARY CONVERGENCE/PREFRONTAL TROUGH WITH
IT THROUGH THE MORNING. RESIDUAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO CROSS THE AREA
IN THE MORNING AND THEN SCT STORMS WILL BEGIN TO BUBBLE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND LIKELY IN OUR FAR
SOUTH/EAST OR JUST OUT OF OUR AREA. RATHER IMPRESSIVE/NARROW DRY
SLOT SHOULD WRAP IN LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SUNSHINE BEFORE STRONG CAA SETS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SECONDARY FRONT. WITH SHALLOW INSTBY DEVELOPING...COULD
SEE SOME SCT SHRA DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH WAS ALREADY WELL
HANDLED BY PVS FORECASTER. THIS MOST LIKELY ACROSS OUR NORTH
CLOSER TO STRONG/COMPACT SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS NRN OH. DON/T
EXPECT MUCH IF ANY THUNDER AFTER ABOUT 18Z...AS INSTBY BECOMES TOO
SHALLOW FOR CHARGE SEPARATION. WILL DEFINITELY A BE A CHANGEABLE
/AUTUMN-LIKE DAY DESPITE MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S. WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY/GUSTY IN THE AFTN AS THE COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AND
CHANGEABLE SKY WITH THE DRY SLOT TO LOWER CLOUDS ALONG/BEHIND THE
SECONDARY SURFACE FRONT.

AS THIS ACTION ALL CLEARS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN...A VERY CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS WELL
INTO THE 40S IN OUR INDIANA/WRN OHIO COUNTIES AS 925MB TEMPS DROP
TO +5C IN THIS AREA BY SUNRISE ON MONDAY. SHOULD SEE A SLOW DECREASE
IN LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LESSENING WINDS AS
WELL...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR INBOUND...AM A LITTLE WORRIED
I AM CLEARING THE SKIES A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY AND STRATOCUMULUS MAY
BE MORE WIDESPREAD.

MONDAY BRINGS 1024MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND CENTERED NEAR CHICAGO BY MONDAY EVENING. SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH DEWPTS IN THE 40S. CONTINUED WEAK CAA
SHOULD KEEP 925MB TEMPS IN THE +8 TO +10C RANGE WHICH PER CLIMO
STUDY SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MOST
AREAS...DESPITE PLENTY OF SUN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDEST OF THE
WEEK AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE COLD PRONE/OUTLYING SITES
TOUCH THE MID TO UPPER 30S AGAIN LIKE DELAWARE/MARYSVILLE ETC DID
LAST WEEK. MAY EVEN BE A TOUCH COLDER THIS TIME AROUND. LOW TEMPS
THIS NIGHT MAY STILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO TOO WARM IN GOING
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE HIGH MOVING RIGHT OVERHEAD AT
12Z AND THE VERY DRY PROFILE /PWATS RUNNING 40% OF NORMAL/. AN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SIGNAL BEING SEEN IN THE DATA.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AS THE
AIRMASS SLOWLY MODIFIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH
DAY...FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S MID WEEK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 DEGREES BY THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPED TO OUR WEST ACROSS INDIANA IN MODERATE
INSTBY AHD OF SFC COLD FRONT AND WAS BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO NW
OHIO. INSTBY SHARPLY DROPS OFF INTO MARGINAL CATEGORY ACROSS OHIO.
THIS LINE WAS SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO LESS FAVORABLE THERMAL ENVIRONMENT.
HAVE TIMED A PERIOD OF VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR REMNANTS OF THIS
CONVECTION AT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT. EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
LATE TONIGHT PRIOR TO SFC COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU SUNDAY MORNING.
EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS FOR A PERIOD SUNDAY AFTN WHEN VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH UPR LEVEL
TROF LATE AFTN INTO SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT THESE CIGS TO BE VFR
BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.

SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT WEST
WITH FROPA ON SUNDAY AND THEN BECOME NW SUNDAY AFTN. WINDS WILL
GUST AS HIGH AS 27 KTS SUNDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

203 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD FRONT SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING WWD OUT OF THE
MOUNTAINS LATE FRI AFTERNOON. FCST OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
LOWER DEW POINTS HAVE FILTERED INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
THERE A FEW DEGREES.

AT 2245Z...VAD WINDS AT 925 MB STILL FM THE NNE. RAP MODEL QUICKLY
VEERS THE 925 MB FLOW TO EAST BY 06Z. THUS CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OVERNIGHT. WILL FAVOR CLOUDS OVER FOG FOR
THE UPPER GREENBRIER VALLEY IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY.

DEW POINTS THE HIGHEST CRW ON SOUTH NEAR SUNSET. THINKING THAT AREA
HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DIURNAL FOG...FORMING FIRST OVER THE
HEADWATERS OF THE TUG FORK AND GUYANDOTTE RIVER VALLEYS.

NO CHANGES TO POPS.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. NAM IS SHOWING SOME MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS.

A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE THE
FASTEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE NAM THE SLOWEST...AND THE SREF
AND CANADIAN IN BETWEEN. UPPER AIR SUPPORT WOULD LEND TOWARD A
SLOWER SOLUTION...BUT WITHOUT A LOT OF MODEL SUPPORT...WILL STAY
TOWARD THE MIDDLE GROUND.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE THRU FRI BEFORE SLIDING
OFF THE E COAST THIS WEEKEND. IN THE NEAR TERM...THIS ALLOWS LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO VEER TO THE SE OVERNIGHT...BY ABOUT 09Z FRI. THIS
WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES...WITH
MVFR CIGS 1 TO 2 KFT AT BKW FRI STARTING AROUND 09Z AND THEN
SCATTERING OUT FOR A TIME FRI EVENING.

DENSE VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY TO FORM ELSEWHERE...FIRST OVER THE TUG
FORK AND COAL FIELDS WHERE DEW POINTS ARE HIGHEST...AND LASTLY ALONG
RIVERS FARTHER N. MORNING CU IS LIKELY AS THE FOG DISSIPATES AFTER
SUNRISE...LEADING TO PATCHY MVFR CIGS 14-18Z FRI. VFR WILL FOLLOW
WITH AFTERNOON CUR AOA 4 KFT.

AFTER A CALM OVERNIGHT...SFC FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT SE OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRI AND LIGHT NE BECOMING LIGHT SE OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. LIGHT TO MODERATE NE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
LIGHT SE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE OVERNIGHT AND OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING LOWERING CEILING INTO SRN WV MOUNTAINS
WITH THE DEVELOPING EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND BKW MAY VARY.
TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY ALSO VARY INTO FRI MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE FRI 09/19/14
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L L M M M H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H L L L L H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H L L L L L M H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...50/26
NEAR TERM...KTB/TRM
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...TRM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

701 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A BAND OF STORMS IS ONGOING OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH/WIND SHIFT. THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT LAGS BEHIND AND
IS NEAR THE NEBRASKA-KANSAS BORDER ATTM. THE LATEST LOCAL WRF AND
HRRR RUNS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST OK AND
POSSIBLY NORTHWEST AR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. IT IS UNCLEAR
WHETHER THIS WILL BE NEW DEVELOPMENT...OR A CONTINUATION OF WHAT
IS CURRENTLY GOING ON. THE HRRR SEEMS TO THINK THE FORMER RATHER
THAN THE LATTER. A THETA-E RIDGE AXIS LIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK
DOWN INTO NORTHEAST OK...SO EITHER SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE ONCE THE
FOCUSING BOUNDARY GETS DOWN HERE. REGARDLESS...WITH THE NAM/LOCAL
WRF/HRRR ALL SHOWING SOMETHING OVER NE OK LATER TONIGHT...I HAVE
RAISED POPS SOME IN THIS AREA. TEXT/WEB PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

LACY

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
AFTER 12Z. WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL AID IN FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR
OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS. LOW CHANCES
FOR TSRA WILL BE HANDLED WITH VCTS ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR JUST
AHEAD OF FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF
FOG AND ISOLATED THUNDER...AND FOR THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE
TAF ONCE THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS AT 3 PM SHOWED PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
ROUGHLY KSTJ-KLBL WITH ACTUAL COLD FRONT LAGGING FROM EXTREME NW
MISSOURI INTO SE COLORADO. FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP SOUTH THIS
EVENING AND WILL LIKELY BE APPROACHING OK/KS BORDER BY MIDNIGHT OR
EVEN LATER. GIVEN WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY...WEAK LAPSE
RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED CONVECTION
LATE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL TREND SOUTH DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY
DURING THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT
COMMENCES SOUTH OF I-40 IN THE AFTERNOON...AGAIN WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE AT BEST.

FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS LEADING TO STRETCH OF
PLEASANT TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. WEAK UPPER LOW PASSING TO OUR
NORTHWEST TUE/WED MAY INCH CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO FAR NORTHWEST AREAS. HOWEVER WITH THE SFC PATTERN
FEATURING A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM
NEW ENGLAND TO OK/AR...DRY AND STABLE REGIME WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 70 84 55 79 / 30 20 10 0
FSM 69 88 58 80 / 10 20 10 0
MLC 68 88 58 80 / 0 20 10 0
BVO 67 81 52 79 / 40 20 0 0
FYV 66 83 52 76 / 20 20 10 0
BYV 67 81 52 75 / 20 20 10 0
MKO 68 86 56 79 / 20 20 10 0
MIO 66 78 52 77 / 30 20 0 0
F10 69 85 57 79 / 10 20 10 0
HHW 68 90 62 82 / 0 20 20 0

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM....30

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NASHVILLE TN

1131 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO MID STATE THRU 19/24Z...BUT STILL EXPECT
CKV/CSV TO EXPERIENCE MVFR FOG...TEMPO IFR FOG CSV...19/10Z-19/14Z. RIDGING
INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE FOR SCT DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT 19/15Z-
20/01Z...WITH VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 20/06Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1031 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IMPULSE CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN TN. LATEST IR
IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD JOG IN REGARD TO THE COOLER CLOUD
TOPS/ REFLECTIVITY LOOP ALSO SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS MAKING INTO OUR
FAR SW. WILL GO AHEAD AND UPDATE FCST AND INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHWEST. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD FINALLY
SLIP SOUTH OF OUR AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WILL REMOVE THE EVENING POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. THE
ACTIVITY IS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THE HRRR HAS
SIGNALED NO ADDITIONAL OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENT. OTW...UPDATE WILL
REMOVE THE AFT WORDING. REMAINDER OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
MAYBE SOME ISO SHWRS W/SW OF TAF SITES THRU 19/03Z...BUT NO FORMATION/IMPACTS
AT TAF SITES EXPECTED. GENERALLY DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO MID STATE
THRU 19/24Z...BUT EXPECT CKV/CSV TO STILL EXPERIENCE MVFR FOG...TEMPO IFR FOG
CSV...19/10Z-19/14Z. RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE FOR SOME
SCT DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT 19/15Z-19/24Z.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 242 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...ACTIVE WEATHER OCCURRING OVER THE SW CORNER OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE
GREATEST. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS LINGER THERE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. OTHERWISE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER. UPPER TROUGH IS NOW
SITUATED TO OUR EAST, WITH A NW FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, LOOK
FOR TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WARMING AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT WILL ENTER MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE NW
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING, WITH MAINLY SCATTERED POP`S WITH
THE FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME INSTABILITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM, SO WILL INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. LOOK FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH VERY
LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY THRU THURSDAY.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&
$$
31

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM

751 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A DRIER DAY ON FRIDAY A BIT OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE HAS
SEEPED BACK INTO THE REGION SATURDAY. THAT MEANS MORE STORMS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. SUNDAY AN IMPULSE OF ENERGY
WILL WORK IN FROM THE SOUTH AS A COOL FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE
EAST. THE AREA WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE BORDERLAND
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TUESDAY ONWARD THE REGION WILL SIT UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE WITH TRAPPED MONSOON MOISTURE. THIS MEANS ISOLATED
LOWLANDS AND SCATTERED MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

.UPDATED DISCUSSION...
DECREASED POPS AND CLOUDS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AS AREA HAS STABILIZED. INITIAL OUTFLOW FROM SAC MTN STORMS DID KICK
OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE ORGAN/SAN ANDRES MTS BUT THIS AREA
HAS STABILIZED SINCE THEN. LATEST HRRR HITTING WESTERN SIERRA COUNTY
AND THE BLACK RANGE FAIRLY HARD THIS EVENING SO KEPT HIGHER POPS IN
THERE.

17-HEFNER

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
INTERESTING SETUP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAY HELP TO BRING MORE
HEAVY RAIN TO FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO. MOISTURE WAS DOWN YESTERDAY...BUT HAS ALREADY BEGIN TO
REBOUND. PROGS SHOW PW`S BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL SUN-MON AS LOW LEVEL
SE WINDS RETURN AND UPPER LEVELS BEGIN TO MOISTEN ON S AND SW FLOW
ALOFT...THANKS IN PART TO MOISTURE INGEST OVER MEXICO OFF OF TS POLO.

WE SHOULD SEE SOME OF ODILE`S RICH MOISTURE...CURRENTLY OVER THE
MIDLAND AREA...WORK BACK WEST OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE DROPS OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
PUSHES A FRONT INTO OUR AREA. PW`S ADVERTISED BACK UP TO NEAR
WHERE THEY WERE WHEN ODILE CAME THROUGH...1.5 TO 1.6". TOMORROW
MORNING MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE TO MOVE UP OVER THE
BOOTHEEL AND CURVE E. THIS LOOKS TO PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT FORCING
WITH A RESULTING BULLS-EYE IN QPF OVER AREAS WEST OF THE RIO.
LATER IN THE DAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSES IN OVER THE FAR EAST
ZONES TO GIVE THOSE AREAS FORCING AND A RESULTANT FOCUS IN QPF
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE CENTER PORTIONS OF THE CWFA WILL SEE
THE LEAST OF THE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY WHILE THE E AND W EDGES SEE
THE BEST POPS.

MONDAY THE ENTIRE AREA APPEARS TO HAVE SOMEWHAT EQUAL CHANCES FOR
PCPN AS THE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION IS RELATIVELY UNIFORM...THE
FRONT WILL HAVE STALLED...AND UPPER-LEVEL VORT MAXES WILL BE
TRACKING W TO E OVERHEAD. THE GFS GOES BONKERS WITH PCPN ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWFA. HOWEVER THE NAM AND EURO MODELS SHOW AREA WIDE
PCPN...THEY SKEW THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
WITH AREAS WEST ONLY LIGHT PCPN. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT THAT
EAST ZONE BIAS WITH LOWER POPS WEST/HIGHER POPS EAST. WITH THE
ENVIRONMENT DEEPLY MOIST THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL RETURN.

TUESDAY THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL HAVE PASSED TO OUR NORTH AND A RIDGE
WILL BUILD TO OUR WEST. THIS PLACES OUR AREA UNDER A MUCH DRIER NW
FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. PW`S SHOULD DROP BACK DOWN TO AN INCH OR
LOWER. WITH CONTINUED SURFACE EASTERLIES THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL STAY IN PLACE...BUT BEGIN TO ERODE ALSO. THIS WILL BEGIN A
PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH MUCH LESSER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HOWEVER FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN.

NEXT WEEKEND WE`LL BE WATCHING A HIGH AMPLITUDE DEEP PACIFIC UPPER
TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT WE
WILL SEE INCREASED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

14-BIRD

..AVIATION...VALID 21/00Z - 22/00Z...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH SCT-BKN 035-055 THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BUILDING UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL WORK
INTO SOME LOWLAND AREAS THIS EVENING. MOST FAVORED AREA WILL BE IN
SW NEW MEXICO...INCLUDING AROUND KDMN...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ENHANCED UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE AREA MOVES UP FROM
MEXICO. SOME STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ON SUNDAY.

25-HARDIMAN

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS TO OUR
EAST...AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW COMES UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AGAIN.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH GRAZES OUR AREA. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP TO AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY AS CLOUDS AND T-STORMS INCREASE. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN HIGH... WITH RAINFALL KEEPING SOIL MOISTURE
HIGH AS WELL. VENT RATES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FAIR CATEGORY
TODAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED.

25-HARDIMAN

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

14/25

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

1253 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

The main aviation forecast concerns are with showers/thunderstorms
and associated reductions in ceilings and visibilities this
afternoon into tonight, and with possible IFR/LIFR conditions
late tonight and early Saturday morning, with low cloud ceilings.
Area of showers persists early this afternoon from north of Brady
to around Sweetwater. New band of convection has developed from
just southeast of Brady, south across eastern Mason County. Other
showers developing west and southwest of San Angelo. All of this
convective activity is moving very slowly north-northeast. Expect
an increase in coverage of showers with scattered thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening. Carrying VCSH/VCTS groups in the area
TAFs, and will update as needed. Additional showers and
thunderstorms are expected tonight, with the best chance across
our western and northwestern counties. The models were on target
with the extent of low cloud development that occurred early this
morning. Outside of convective activity, anticipate that this will
occur again late tonight and early Saturday morning. Carrying low
cloud (IFR) ceilings at the TAF sites.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

UPDATE...
A forecast update is in order this morning. Satellite imagery
shows widespread cloud cover, and surface observations have
indicated widespread IFR and LIFR ceilings. Radar imagery shows a
band of rain showers with moderate to occasionally heavy rain,
extending from Eden northwest into southwestern Nolan County. Area
of moderate to heavy rain over West Texas is slowly shifting east or
east-southeast (referenced in the Satellite Precipitation Estimates
product from NESDIS). Will update the forecast, at this time to
increase cloud cover and re-work the PoP field for today.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Ceilings have come down in many places to less than 2000 ft, but
trying to pin down a prevailing height is akin to playing
whack-a-mole with Mother Nature. In general, ceilings will bounce
around between IFR and MVFR, briefly dropping to less than 500 ft
at times over the next few hours. Visibilities have followed suit
along the I-20 corridor, ranging from 1/4 to 3 miles in the past
hour. Generally improving conditions are anticipated by mid/late
morning, with prevailing VFR conditions anticipated after 16z.

Current convection is expected to weaken this morning, but
additional development is expected this afternoon and tonight. A
VCSH group was appended to all sites excluding KABI this
afternoon. Any cells that develop may produce brief IFR
visibilities and/or MVFR ceilings. Rain chances increase tonight
across the north. Expect a general easterly wind at 10 kts or
less.

Johnson

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

A split flow pattern persists over the western CONUS with a
relatively deep trough along the West Coast, cut off from the
stronger westerlies over the northern tier. The mid/upper-level
ridge remains in place over the southern Rockies and Plains, but
the remnants of Odile are trapped beneath this ridge, moving
very slowly to the east across NM this morning. Copious tropical
moisture has been advected into the region, as evidenced by the
precipitable water values from the 00z raobs. Both the FWD and DRT
precipitable water values are just below two standard deviations
above climatology. However, the 1.95" PWAT at KMAF is above the
99th percentile. In other words, pretty rare! GPS PWAT data
indicates values over 2.00" east of DRT. Southerly 850mb winds of
15-20 kts will continue to advect this moisture poleward
throughout the day.

Analysis of the wind field hints at a very weak surface boundary
(or trough) extending from northwest to southeast across the
CWA. The RAP Mesoanalysis also indicates a bit of a theta-e
gradient over the southwest zones, in the vicinity of the stronger
convection earlier in the evening. The convection over our neck of
the woods continues to weaken this morning, as does the
precipitation moving into the Permian Basin. However, we should
still see at some activity around through the morning hours.
Despite the abundant cloud cover, temperatures are forecast to
warm into the mid/upper 80s across the southern and eastern zones,
which should promote the development of additional convection by
midday. Most of the models favor the southwest half of the
forecast area for the development of showers and thunderstorms
today, likely focusing a bit farther north, primarily over the
western Big Country and Concho Valley tonight.

The hi-res CAMS are suggesting that convection during the daytime
period will be more cellular in nature, keeping the threat for
flash flooding on the low side. However, tonight, as the low-
level jet begins to intensify, we may see this activity grow
upscale. Given the lower flash flood threat for today, no Flash
Flood Watch will be issued at this time. That said, a watch may be
warranted next shift, focused on the overnight period.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday into Thursday)

Potential for heavy rainfall and flooding will continue this
weekend. Remnants of Odile are expected to push northeast into the
Panhandle and Northwest Texas early Saturday. A cold front then
moves through West Central Texas, from northeast to southwest,
Saturday afternoon and night, acting as a continuing focus for
heavy rainfall.

Both the GFS and NAM models indicate heavy rainfall amounts of 1
to 3 inches in the Big Country and Concho Valley, Saturday and
Saturday night. Locally heavier amounts possible as the tropical
atmosphere will be a efficient rainfall producer. Sunday afternoon,
the heavy rainfall focus moves to the Concho Valley and areas
southwest including Crockett county. This occurs, as more stable air
moves in from the northeast. The main potential for heavy rainfall
then moves southwest of the region Sunday night, with Crockett
county having the best chance of rain. Flash flood watches may be
needed this weekend. Of course, rainfall and runoff will be
extremely beneficial as reservoirs are at extremely low levels and
much West Central Texas is in moderate to extreme drought.

Kept a slight chance of showers on Monday with low/mid level
moisture remaining. Rainfall amounts will be light, if the occur.
A more stable atmosphere remains over the region the rest of the
week, as weak surface high pressure builds in.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 84 69 83 70 85 / 80 50 60 50 30
San Angelo 84 70 86 70 86 / 60 50 60 50 40
Junction 87 72 86 72 87 / 50 30 40 40 30

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

1003 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
A forecast update is in order this morning. Satellite imagery
shows widespread cloud cover, and surface observations have
indicated widespread IFR and LIFR ceilings. Radar imagery shows a
band of rain showers with moderate to occasionally heavy rain,
extending from Eden northwest into southwestern Nolan County. Area
of oderate to heavy rain over West Texas is slowly shifting east or
east-southeast (referenced in the Satellite Precipitation Estimates
product from NESDIS). Will update the forecast, at this time to
increase cloud cover and re-work the PoP field for today.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Johnson

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

LONG TERM...
(Saturday into Thursday)

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 83 69 83 70 85 / 50 50 70 50 30
San Angelo 87 70 86 70 86 / 50 50 50 50 40
Junction 89 72 86 72 87 / 40 30 40 40 30

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

959 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.UPDATE...
A forecast update is in order this morning. Satellite imagery
shows widespread cloud cover, and surface observations have
indicated widespread IFR and LIFR ceilings. Radar imagery shows a
band of rain showers with moderate to occasionally rain, extending
from Eden northwest into southwestern Nolan County. Area of
moderate to heavy rain over West Texas is slowly shifting east or
east-southeast. Will update the forecast, at this time to increase
cloud cover and re-work the PoP field for today.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Johnson

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

LONG TERM...
(Saturday into Thursday)

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 83 69 83 70 85 / 50 50 70 50 30
San Angelo 87 70 86 70 86 / 50 50 50 50 40
Junction 89 72 86 72 87 / 40 30 40 40 30

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

637 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Johnson

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

LONG TERM...
(Saturday into Thursday)

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 83 69 83 70 85 / 50 50 70 50 30
San Angelo 87 70 86 70 86 / 50 50 50 50 40
Junction 89 72 86 72 87 / 40 30 40 40 30

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

216 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT WEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY AHEAD OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY KEEPING DRY
WEATHER IN PLACE. A COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1139 AM EDT FRIDAY...
MADE SOME QUICK ADJUSTMENTS IN POPS TO EXPAND COVERAGE OF LIGHT
POPS FURTHER NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460 FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. CUT BACK ON MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

AS OF 933 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS MORNINGS 12Z RNK SOUNDING DISPLAYED PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH A EASTERLY FLOW
FROM SFC UP TO 1KFT. KFCX 88D IMAGES HIGHLIGHTED A FEW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGING
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A BLEND OF THE HRRR AND HI RESW-ARW CAPTURED
THIS MORNING POPS.

TWO CHALLENGES FOR THIS AFTERNOON FORECAST ARE HOW FAST/DEEP CAD IS
AND WHATS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL
SHOWS AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE WESTERN MOVING SURFACE TROUGH. INCLUDED AN ISOLATED TSRA
MENTION IN NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA RIDGES/FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LINES UP WITH THE
PASSING TROUGH UNDER DECENT 85H THETA-E RIDGING.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TO BE STUCK MOSTLY IN THE 60S UNDER LOW
DECK AND EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER THE FAR WEST COULD ACTUALLY SEE
READINGS PUSH INTO THE 70S GIVEN THE SLOWER WEDGING.

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES...POPS AND CLOUD COVER
FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...

COMBINATION OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND LOW LEVEL
THETA-E RIDGING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE CONTINUES TO LEAD TO ISOLATED
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS IN SPOTS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST
A WHILE LONGER PER LATEST HRRR BEFORE THE DEVELOPING WEDGE STARTS TO
ENHANCE FROM NE TO SW BUT A BIT SLOWER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. THIS
SHOULD START TO PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY -DZ ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES AS
SHOWERS WANE PER INCREASING STABILITY BUT LOOKS LESS THAN PREVIOUS
GIVEN DRY AIR SAGGING IN FROM THE NORTH OFF MSAS. HOW FAST/DEEP ANY OF
THE LOW CLOUDS CAN BANK IN ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES KEY TO CLOUDS/TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODELS NOW SLOWER IN INITIALLY PUSHING THE CAD
SOUTH AND WEST. THIS MAY LEAD TO AN AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY ESPCLY
ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE GUIDANCE REDEVELOPS
SHRA ALONG THE WESTWARD MOVING SURFACE TROUGH. SINCE THIS IN LINE WITH
CONSENSUS...BUMPED UP CHANCE POPS ACROSS NW NC...AND SW VA LATER WHILE
TRIMMING ANY -DZ/-RA TO ISOLATED -SHRA BLUE RIDGE...AND LITTLE MORE
THAN CLOUDS EAST-NE AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE START TO ENHANCE INLAND
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. ALSO INCLUDED AN ISOLATED -TSRA MENTION NW
NC RIDGES/FOOTHILLS WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LINES UP WITH THE
PASSING TROUGH UNDER DECENT 85H THETA-E RIDGING.

OTRW CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS THE MAIN ISSUES ESPCLY BLUE RIDGE WHERE
LIKELY TO BE STUCK MOSTLY IN THE 60S UNDER LOW DECK AND EASTERLY FLOW.
HOWEVER COULD ACTUALLY SEE READINGS PUSH INTO THE 70S FAR WEST GIVEN
THE SLOWER WEDGING...AS WELL AS OVER THE SOUTH/EAST IF CAN GET MORE
SUNNY BREAKS AS MOISTURE STARTS TO DECREASE FROM THE EAST LATE.

SURFACE RIDGING STRENGTHENS FROM THE NE OVERNIGHT HELPING PUSH THE
RESIDUAL AXIS OF MOISTURE FARTHER WEST WHICH SHOULD BRING AN END TO
POPS DURING THE EVENING. BANKED UP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THOUGH LIKELY TO
REDEVELOP OR PERSIST BLUE RIDGE WHERE LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE.
APPEARS AREAS OVER THE EAST/SE FROM HIGHWAY 29 EAST COULD SEE SOME
CLEARING AS MOISTURE GETS PINCHED FARTHER WEST AHEAD OF THE DRIER
EASTERLY FLOW. OTRW VARYING DEGREE OF CLOUDS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S PER LATEST SIMILAR MAV/MET MOS.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT WAS OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE OUT
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN
WEDGE BACK OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. A GULF STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL HELP KEEP THIS WEDGE
IN THE AREA AND ALSO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP THE FORECAST AREA
DRY SATURDAY. THESE DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE MOST OF ITS RAIN FALLING
ON ITS EASTERN FLANK AS DRY AIR IS ENTRAINED INTO THE WESTERN SIDE.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM
MONDAY TO SUNDAY. THIS FRONT STILL LOOKS LIKE A TYPICAL FALL FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH RAIN FALLING ALONG WESTERN SLOPES...LOSING THEIR
INTENSITY MOVING TO THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS PRECIPITATION MAY THEN JUMP
THE FOOTHILLS AS A WEAK LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE
PIEDMONT WHERE A LEE TROUGH WILL RESIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM
AND ECM LOOK SIMILAR WITH KEEPING BULK OF THE RAIN OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. THE GFS PROGRESSIVELY MOVES THE FRONT AND RAINFALL ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...DISREGARDING DOWNSLOPE. THE FORECAST DID
NOT DISCREDIT THE GFS...BUT MORE WEIGHT WAS PLACED WITH THE NAM/ECM
FOR SUNDAY.

SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. AREAS NOT SEEING RAIN UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY
SHOULD HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. WESTERN SLOPES
SHOULD HAVE RAIN FALLING BY THE AFTERNOON AND MAY SEE HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS PERIOD IS SHAPING UP TO BE DRY AND SEASONAL. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY MONDAY AND COULD BRING ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE AREAS AS FLOW BACKS ALOFT SOME. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST PUSHES EAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
TUE- WED. TEMPS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL COOL DOWN
SOME...BUT NOT LOOKING AS CHILLY AS EARLIER THOUGHT...WITH 8H
TEMPS +10-12C.

HIGHS WILL RUN FROM THE 60S WEST TO 70S EAST...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 40S...WITH SOME 50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...

RADAR INDICATES LIGHT RAIN CONTINUING TO DRIFT NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON...THINNING AS IT PROGRESSES...AS IT MOVES INTO THE
INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED
AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WIND FLOW REMAINS
OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BECOMING
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPSLOPE FLOW
IS MAINTAINING IFR CEILINGS FOR LYH/ROA/BCB/LWB...WHILE BLF
REMAINS OUTSIDE THE WEDGE. LOW CEILINGS HAVE MIXED OUT IN THE
SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR NEAR DAN.

LOW CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ONLY MODEST
IMPROVEMENT...AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LOW CEILINGS
HOLDING ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AIRPORTS. FURTHER EAST...CLEARING IS
EXPECTED...ONLY FOR PATCHES OF FOG TO DEVELOP SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES. LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND
DIRECTION OR SPEED IS ANTICIPATED.

WITH INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR WORKING IN THROUGH THE NIGHT...MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL ERODE QUICKLY AFTER 9 AM SATURDAY ONCE
DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES. DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS MAY MAINTAIN
FOGGY CONDITIONS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO LONGER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WEDGE SHOULD ERODE FAIRLY QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
AN UPSTREAM TROUGH. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG...BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SUN WITH -SHRA AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD
TSRA WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. INSTABILITY IS QUITE LIMITED AND
SO IS DEEP MOISTURE. WITH A POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OFF THE COAST AT THE SAME TIME...WE MAY BE IN A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AREA AND SEE LITTLE MORE THAN -SHRA OR SPRINKLES EAST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS SUN-EARLY
MON AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH DRY NW FLOW. THUS...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOCAL EARLY MORNING MVFR-IFR
FOG CONDITIONS.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KK
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/NF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

1139 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

AS OF 933 AM EDT FRIDAY...

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TO BE STUCK MOSTLY IN THE 60S UNDER LOW
DECK AND EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER THE FAR WEST COULD ACTUALLY SEE
READINGS PUSH INTO THE 70S GIVEN THE SLOWER WEDGING.

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES...POPS AND CLOUD COVER
FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...

HIGHS WILL RUN FROM THE 60S WEST TO 70S EAST...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 40S...WITH SOME 50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT FRIDAY...

CIGS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOWER THROUGH MVFR ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE WEDGE STARTS TO SPILL
WESTWARD. THIS MAY LEAD TO AN AREA OF IFR CIGS ESPCLY AROUND
KBCB/KROA EAST TO KLYH THIS MORNING INCLUDING PATCHY -RA/-DZ.
OTHER HEAVIER SHOWERS JUST TO THE WEST OF KDAN SHOULD STAY MOSTLY
OUT OF THE KDAN VICINITY WHILE FEEDING NORTH UP TOWARD KROA SO
INCLUDING SOME PREVAILING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OR VCSH MENTION OVER
THE EAST THIS MORNING. CIGS REMAIN MORE VARIABLE TO THE WEST WITH
MOSTLY VFR TO HIGH END MVFR EXPECTED A WHILE LONGER AT KBLF/KLWB
BEFORE SHOWING SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SOME ADDED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE MAINLY MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE TOO WIDELY SCATTERED TO INCLUDE IN ANY
OF THE TAF LOCATIONS FOR NOW.

DEGREE OF LOW CIGS REMAINS IN QUESTION DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL TO SEE OTHER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN PERIMETER SITES
IMPROVE TO VFR WHILE STAYING STUCK IN MVFR OR WORSE ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE UNTIL LATE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE SCENARIO OF SEEING A SLOW
RISE IN CLOUD BASES MOST SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST AT LEAST
GETTING INTO BRIEF VFR. EAST WINDS AT 7-12 KTS TODAY WITH POSSIBLE
LOW END GUSTS IN USUALLY FAVORED SOUTHEAST WIND AREAS...SUCH AS
KBLF.

CIGS MAY LOWER AGAIN THIS EVENING PENDING DEGREE OF
EROSION/COVERAGE HEADING INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON SO TRENDING
BACK TOWARD MVFR FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE
DRYING FROM THE EAST OCCURS. OTRW ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CIGS IN
FOG AND STRATUS LIKELY LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH
SOME ADDED PATCHY FOG LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS SUCH AS KLWB/KBCB BY
MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WEDGE SHOULD ERODE FAIRLY QUICKLY SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG...BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SUN WITH -SHRA AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD
TSRA WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. INSTABILITY IS QUITE LIMITED AND
SO IS DEEP MOISTURE. WITH A POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OFF THE COAST AT THE SAME TIME...WE MAY BE IN A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AREA AND SEE LITTLE MORE THAN -SHRA OR SPRINKLES EAST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS SUN-EARLY MON
AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH DRY NW FLOW. THUS...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOCAL EARLY MORNING MVFR-IFR
FOG CONDITIONS.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KK
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/KK/RAB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

934 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 933 AM EDT FRIDAY...

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TO BE STUCK MOSTLY IN THE 60S UNDER LOW
DECK AND EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER THE FAR WEST COULD ACTUALLY SEE
READINGS PUSH INTO THE 70S GIVEN THE SLOWER WEDGING.

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES...POPS AND CLOUD COVER
FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...

HIGHS WILL RUN FROM THE 60S WEST TO 70S EAST...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 40S...WITH SOME 50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT FRIDAY...

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KK
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/KK/RAB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

700 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...

HIGHS WILL RUN FROM THE 60S WEST TO 70S EAST...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 40S...WITH SOME 50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT FRIDAY...

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KK
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/KK/RAB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

333 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...

HIGHS WILL RUN FROM THE 60S WEST TO 70S EAST...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 40S...WITH SOME 50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH END STRATO-CU ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD MID DECK PREVAIL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION ATTM WITH WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BEING FED
VIA RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGING JUST EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. ACTUAL COOL FRONT THAT WILL SET A MORE EASTERLY REGIME INTO
MOTION OVERNIGHT STILL LAGGING TO THE NORTH SO IFFY AS TO HOW MUCH
CIGS WILL FALL BY DAYBREAK GIVEN CURRENT CANOPY. THIS SIMILAR TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STUCK TO THE SOUTH
AND BOUNDARY LAYER DRY ADVECTION WINNING OUT ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS SHOWN IN DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM IFR IN STRATUS/DZ/FOG
TO VFR OUTSIDE OF PATCHY FOG LATE. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE GOING
TRENDS OF LOWERING CIGS THROUGH MVFR TO IFR IN SPOTS BY DAWN
ESPCLY BLUE RIDGE WHILE SLOWING DOWN THE ONSET A BIT. MAY END UP
WITH A RIBBON OF ONLY IFR/LIFR AT KBCB/KROA AND MAINLY MVFR TO
BRIEF IFR ELSW BUT LOW CONFIDENCE. SPOTTY SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS
THE FAR NE NEAR KLYH AND JUST SW OF KDAN SO WILL INCLUDE A VCSH
MENTION IN THESE SPOTS EARLY ON AND KEEP SOME -DZ MENTION ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE.

ONCE CIGS DO LOWER EARLY FRIDAY...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE
MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON AS CIGS TEND TO
LIFT SOME ESPCLY AWAY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE. OTRW OVERALL LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED WITH CIGS REMAINING MVFR MOST SITES ALL
DAY...BUT VSBYS SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR AFT 15Z/11AM. WINDS BECOMING
ENE- ESE OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS OF 5-7KTS...INCREASING TO 7-10KTS AFT
14Z/10AM FRI. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW END GUSTS IN USUALLY FAVORED
SOUTHEAST WIND AREAS...SUCH AS BLF...AFT 15Z FRI.

CIGS MAY LOWER AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING PENDING DEGREE OF
EROSION/COVERAGE HEADING INTO LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON SO TRENDING
BACK TOWARD MVFR FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CIGS IN FOG AND STRATUS LIKELY LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH SOME ADDED PATCHY -DZ POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KK
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/KK/RAB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1244 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
TONIGHT...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TONIGHT...AND WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A FAST SEMI-ZONAL FLOW
WAS PRESENT ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ADJACENT
MONTANA. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR... 1. PLENTY OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS...SOME OF WHICH WERE
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. 2. PULLING MORE HUMID AIR
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON A 20-40 KT JET AT 925MB WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...AS WELL AS PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1-1.5
INCHES. FINALLY 3...DEVELOPING AN UNSEASONABLY WARM...CAPPED AIRMASS
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA CHARACTERIZED BY 850MB TEMPS OF 18-24C AND 700MB
TEMPS OF 10-13C. OVER THE FORECAST AREA...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
EXISTS WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 10C AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 0.5
INCH. A WARM FRONT SEPARATES THE DIVISION OF AIRMASSES OVER WESTERN
MN...WHICH ISENTROPIC LIFT/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
FRONT HAS LED TO MID CLOUDS IN MN. NOTHING YET FALLING OUT OF
THESE...THOUGH.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT TRACKING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS BY 00Z. WHAT THIS DOES IS
HELP CONTINUE A WARM ADVECTION REGIME DOWNSTREAM INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE BIG PLUME OF WARM 700MB AND 850MB AIR OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
STREAMS EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS OVER
CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST WI...EFFECTIVELY PUTTING A NICE CAP IN
PLACE. PRIOR TO THIS CAP ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW DAYS AGO IT
APPEARED THAT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE THE CASE ANYMORE WITH MOST MODELS SUGGESTING A DRY DAY
TODAY. HAVE STILL LEFT SOME LOW CHANCES IN TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON...DUE TO ACTIVITY OVER NORTH DAKOTA PROGGED
TO MARCH EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WI. NOW THE 19.00Z GFS DOES PRODUCE
SOME PRECIP FROM EAU TO LSE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
APPEARS TO BE THE LONE MODEL OUT. SOUNDINGS TOO FROM THE GFS AT LSE
LOOK ODD FOR PRODUCING RAIN...HAVING JUST SOME SMALL LAYER OF
SATURATION BELOW THE CAP.

PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE TIGHT TODAY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE DAKOTAS. WITH 850MB WINDS
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO 35-50 KT SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AND DAYTIME MIXING...WE COULD SEE GUSTS UPWARDS
OF 25-35 KT. HIGHEST GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST MN. THESE WOULD BE JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. REGARDING
THE AFOREMENTIONED MIXING...PERIODS OF SUN PLUS 925MB TEMPS CLIMBING
TO 16-20C BY 00Z...MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF TAYLOR/CLARK SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS BRING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO MN AND NORTHERN
WI...DRAGGING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SAT. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE DPVA AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH WILL HELP COOL THE CAP...AND FORCE SOME CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. APPEARS MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE ROOTED ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH PARCELS BEING LIFTED BETWEEN 850-900MB...OR
ABOUT 1 KM ABOVE THE GROUND. CAPE LIFTED FROM THIS LEVEL RANGES FROM
1500-2000 J/KG WHILE THE 1-6KM SHEAR IS ONLY 10-15 KT. THAT SHEAR IS
CERTAINLY UNFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE. IF FOR SOME REASON THE PARCELS CAN
GET ROOTED BELOW 1 KM...THE 0-3KM SHEAR IS 35-40 KT...MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE. GIVEN THAT EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE UP NEAR 40000 FT...CAN
NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF HAIL/WIND...WHICH
LOOKS MOST LIKELY SOMETIME IN THE LATE EVENING OR EARLY MORNING.
CONSIDERED RAISING PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO 60...BUT BOTH THE
19.00Z NSSL WRF-ARW AND NCEP HIRES-ARW SUGGEST ANYWHERE FROM
ISOLATED-SCATTERED COVERAGE. APPEARS THE LACK OF DECENT CONVERGENCE
BETWEEN 900-700MB IS THE CAUSE. ALL MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE BULK OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY 12Z. IT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A WARM NIGHT UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO A BREEZY
WIND AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. AFTER FROPA...IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW STRATUS
DECK MAY FORM AS MODELS SUGGEST A SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS MOVING IN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COMPARED TO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
DOMINATES THE LONG TERM. THERE ARE A FEW TIME PERIODS TO FOCUS ON.

GENERAL MODELS CONSENSUS IS FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE
INTO/OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SATURDAY...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH. IT APPEARS ANY CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STILL MAINTAINED SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING...THOUGH...AS WE WAIT FOR
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO FULLY MOVE IN. THEN THERE SHOULD BE A
BREAK...AHEAD OF A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MN BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE
DIVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE POTENT NATURE
COULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. A LOT OF MODELS
HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE DIMINISHING BEFORE IT
COMES INTO THE FORECAST AREA...OR MAYBE HOLDING ONTO IT FOR I-94.
SOME COLD POOL SHOWERS...ENHANCED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...COULD OCCUR ON SUNDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-94. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY LOOKS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER COMPARED TO
SATURDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS FALLING FROM 18-21C AT 00Z SUNDAY TO 11-
13C AT 18Z SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...WHILE VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGING MARCHES
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE REGION. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR A
COOL NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND WARMING THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SITTING OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS PROGGED TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION. TOUGH TO
SAY HOW MUCH MOISTURE THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE WITH IT AT THIS
TIME...AND IF ITS TRACK ENDS UP GOING THROUGH THE REGION OR STAYING
OFF TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...FOR NOW THE FORECAST JUST HAS SOME LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH IT. TEMPERATURES COULD GET KNOCKED DOWN A
LITTLE BIT WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.

BEYOND THURSDAY...GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY EXISTS THAT
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE REGION...IN RESPONSE TO STRONG
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS UPPER RIDGING SHOULD BRING DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN CHANCES FOR THE STORMS ARE FROM THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH THAT THE CONVECTION WILL OCCUR/HIT THE TAF SITES BECAUSE
THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE MAIN SHOW MAY BE OVER
IOWA. HAVE LEFT THE VCTS IN THERE FOR THE MAIN PERIOD WHERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
BEFORE SWITCHING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
OVERNIGHT.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...HALBACH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

649 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
TONIGHT...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TONIGHT...AND WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COMPARED TO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
DOMINATES THE LONG TERM. THERE ARE A FEW TIME PERIODS TO FOCUS ON.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY TIGHTEN
THIS MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...THE SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. IN ADDITION WITH DIURNAL
HEATING...THE WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE FROM
19.16Z AND 20.01Z.

A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AT KRST
BETWEEN 20.03Z AND 20.08Z...AND AT KLSE BETWEEN 20.05Z AND 20.09Z.
THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A MILE AT
TIMES. HOWEVER THE TIMING OF THIS IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BOYNE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

219 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
TONIGHT...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TONIGHT...AND WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COMPARED TO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
DOMINATES THE LONG TERM. THERE ARE A FEW TIME PERIODS TO FOCUS ON.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

PRESSURE GRADIENT IS BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
WINDS STARTING TO INCREASE. EXPECT TO SEE SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS AND WITH THE
INCREASE ALOFT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...STILL EXPECTING TOO MUCH
MIXING TO ALLOW ANY FOG TO FORM. THE 19.00Z NAM IS NOT QUITE AS
STRONG WITH THE WINDS ALOFT SO SHOULD HAVE ANY LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR CONCERNS. HOWEVER...ONCE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DISSIPATES
FRIDAY MORNING...THE MIXING WILL ALLOW THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO
REACH THE SURFACE AND STILL EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS
FOR BOTH SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE CAP BUILDS OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECT ANY MID
LEVEL SHOWERS THAT MAY FORM TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF BOTH TAF
SITES. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FRIDAY EVENING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...THE CAP MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME
CONVECTION TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS FOR KRST
FOR LATE FRIDAY EVENING BUT KEEP KLSE DRY AT THIS POINT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH ON THE TIMING FOR KLSE TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...04

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

358 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND PCPN CHANCES FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTN AND EVE. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A WELL PRONOUNCED
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST WY AT 20Z. ASSOCIATED
SFC COLD FRONT HAS MADE LITTLE FORWARD PROGRESS THIS AFTN...ANALYZED
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH MODEST LARGER SCALE SUPPORT SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH SHOWING ISOLATED ACTIVITY FROM SOUTHEAST WY INTO THE SOUTHERN
NE PANHANDLE BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z. LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL FORCING SHOULD
KEEP THINGS ISOLATED. GFS AND NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERTED
V LLVL PROFILES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. DCAPES AROUND 1300 J/KG ON THE
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS COULD BE A BIT
OF A PROBLEM TONIGHT. DID NOT MENTION IN THE GRIDS WITH COVERAGE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT.

COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE TONIGHT. DRIER
AIR WILL SLOWLY WORK INTO THE AREA...ENDING CHANCES FOR PCPN FROM NW
TO SE BY 06Z SAT. GFS AND NAM SHOW H7 TEMPS COOLING TO 6 TO 8 DEG C
OVER THE PLAINS BY SAT AFTN...DOWN FROM AROUND TODAYS 13 C OVER CYS
PER A RECENT LAPS SOUNDING ANALYSIS. DRY COLUMN OVERHEAD FOR SAT AS
HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING TAKES OVER...SO LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND A SUBSTANTIAL COOLDOWN FROM TODAYS HIGHS. NEXT CONCERN IS
A LARGE CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE OVER WEST
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ON SUN
WITH INCREASING 700-300 MILLIBAR MOISTURE OVER CARBON COUNTY BY 12Z.
MOISTURE AND QG ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FCST PERIOD. LLVL UPSLOPE AND SOME CLOUD COVER SUGGESTS SUN AFTN
SHOULD BE QUITE COOL. THE MAJORITY OF MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS AT
70F OR BELOW AS A GENERAL RULE...SO TRENDED LOWER ON TEMPS. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE FROM SW
TO NE DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT BASIN MOVING EASTWARD ON MON AND LOCATED OVER NORTHERN WY BY
THE AFTN. GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS AND
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...COULD SEE A
FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL. MIDLVL LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD
INTO SOUTH DAKOTA ON MON NIGHT AND TUES WITH LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING. PRECIP CHANCES COME DOWN ON TUES AS THE BEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE IS WELL EAST...HOWEVER KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING
TH AFTN WITH WEAK INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MODEST MIDLVL
MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. IT WILL BE BREEZY ON TUES
WITH ENHANCED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND GOOD MIXING. THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE INCREASING HEIGHTS AS A RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OFF
THE WEST COAST. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AND
WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 KTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS COULD DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER...STRETCHING FROM
LARAMIE EASTWARD TO SIDNEY. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH THE SHOWERS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER AROUND 01Z
WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN NE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVE WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
THE PRIMARY HAZARD. COOLER AND DRIER FOR SAT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR
MASS WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCE FOR PCPN. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WETTING
RAINS WILL BE FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE AS A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HAMMER
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...HAMMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RENO NV

303 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NEVADA WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THEN
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE BRINGS INCREASING WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH POSSIBLE RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...

SO FAR THE ONLY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED IN EASTERN
CHURCHILL COUNTY WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVED UP TO 0.50 INCH,
AND FAR SOUTHERN MONO COUNTY REPORTING AROUND 0.25 INCH. OTHERWISE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPARSE WITH RAIN BANDS UNABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER
EXCEPT IN WEST CENTRAL NV.

THE KEY OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WRAPPING INTO THE RENO AND TAHOE
VICINITY WILL BE DURING THE MID AND MORNING HOURS BETWEEN 6 AND 11
AM. THIS TIME PERIOD HAD OFTEN BEEN TARGETED FOR THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATE A
NARROWER AND WEAKER RAIN BAND COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THE
TRADE-OFF OF LESS RAIN AND CLOUD COVERAGE IN THE MORNING COULD BE
INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT THAT WOULD MAKE RAINFALL MORE HIT OR MISS OVER THE
REGION.

THE PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO
THE NORTHEAST AND EXITS NORTHEAST NV. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A RETURN
TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AS RIDGE AXIS
MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE RETURNED TO TRUCKEE AND PARTS OF THE
TAHOE BASIN AFTER 3 PM YESTERDAY, WITH SOME SMOKE PERSISTING EARLY
THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE NORTH SHORE OF TAHOE TO
INTERSTATE 80. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL SMOKE IS UNLIKELY TO SPREAD
EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY, IT MAY BE
DIFFICULT TO FULLY SCOUR OUT THE EXISTING SMOKE ESPECIALLY IF
STEADY RAIN MISSES THESE AREAS. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST
AGAIN MONDAY WITH WEAK ZEPHYR BREEZE RETURNING BY LATE AFTERNOON,
AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS TUESDAY. THIS COULD BRING MORE
SMOKE EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST AND INTO WESTERN NV IF THE KING
FIRE IS STILL BURNING ACTIVELY THROUGH HEAVY TIMBER. MJD

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE EAST PACIFIC TROUGH AND ITS MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FOCUS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH THE MODELS A BIT SLOWER
THIS MORNING. THE EC CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE
PROGRESSION BY 24-36 HOURS THIS MORNING. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A
BLEND, BUT I AM STARTING TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE EC. THEIR ENSEMBLES
SUPPORT THEIR RESPECTIVE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS, BUT PREFER THE EC
ENSEMBLE IDEAS DUE TO THE GREATER NUMBER OF MEMBERS. IT ALSO SHOWS
THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS MORE WITH THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND
NOT AS MUCH ON SPEED THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK A BIT BREEZY BUT NOT AS MUCH SO WITH THE
SLOWER TIMING. IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE
GFS/EC ARE ONLY ABOUT 12 HOURS DIFFERENT WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH AND CONTINUED THE CHANCE POPS IN THE SIERRA NORTH OF TAHOE
INTO NORTHERN WASHOE THU/THU NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER EAST.
BEHIND THE FRONT, IT LOOKS MUCH COOLER AND SHOWERY FRIDAY ON BOTH
MODELS WITH THE SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND PER THE EC. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 9000 FEET OR SO BEHIND THE FRONT SO SOME
PEAKS MAY SEE A LIGHT CAPPING OF WHITE BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, KEPT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EC AND ITS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH 70 IN WRN NV AND AROUND 60 IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS. WALLMANN
&&

.AVIATION...

SOME SMOKE/HAZE WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING NEAR THE SIERRA CREST
AROUND TAHOE THEN CLEAR SOME AROUND NOON ONLY TO RETURN AROUND 00Z
WITH A LIGHT WEST WIND COMING OVER THE CREST AT THAT TIME. SFC VIS
COULD REDUCE TO NEAR 2 SM THROUGH 06Z FOR KTRK/KTVL AND ISSUES
WITH SLANTWISE VIS ARE ALSO PROBABLE. SMOKE ISSUES ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY ASSUMING THE KING
FIRE REMAINS ACTIVE.

OTHERWISE, A BAND OF RAIN OVER PERSHING COUNTY WITH POCKETS OF MVFR
VIS WILL PERSIST INTO 18Z. THE BAND LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF KRNO
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH ISOLD MVFR CIGS/VIS IN SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. SLOW CLEARING
THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDS OUTSIDE OF SMOKE MONDAY. WALLMANN

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SACRAMENTO CA

951 PM PDT Sat Sep 20 2014

.Synopsis...
Lingering Sierra showers/t-storms are possible through the
weekend, otherwise, dry & warmer temperatures into early next
week. Cooler and wetter weather arrives middle of next week into
next weekend.

.Discussion...
Instability advected into the srn sac/san joaquin valley earlier
this evening. This touched off isolated showers and thunderstorms
over the area. Activity has diminished over the past few hours
with a few isolated showers over the valley although a new batch
of convection is developing over the southeastern Sierra. Have
increased overnight pops over the southern portion of the area...as
HRRR maintains showers and isolated thunderstorms through sunrise.

.Previous Discussion...
Satellite imagery shows a cut off 578dm closed low centered
directly over Oxnard as of 230pm this afternoon. This closed
circulation center is positioned directly below the apex of a
ridge extending across much of the western US. Short term
convective guidance has varied, with the NAM12 over analyzing
convection, the WRF keeping the convection along the higher
terrain of the Sierra, and the HRRR spilling convection into the
valley from the south and east. The most plausible scenario is a
blend between the WRF and HRRR solutions with most of the
convective activity occurring along the crest, with a low to
moderate probability of spill over into the foothills and valley.
The best chance for spillover into the valley is between 9pm and
3am tonight. The best chance for rainfall is late today and
overnight when a moist PW plume interacts with the enhanced
northeastern sector of the upper low and orographics of the
Sierra. A third of an inch of rain is possible above 4000 feet
south of Lake Tahoe should nature play out as modeled. KDAX radar
indicates the first cell has developed south of SR108 in Tuolumne
county over the last 10 minutes. Elsewhere, mid to high clouds
have been streaming in around the upper low and have helped to
moderate temperatures slightly.

The upper low is forecast to shift inland and slowly reintegrate
with the mean westerly flow over the next few days. Temperatures
will remain near normal through the short-term with upper 80s to
low 90s in the valley. A gradual cooling and drying trend is
expected into early next week.

Smoke from the King Fire will continue to impact the Sierra and
foothills into the adjacent Southern Sacramento valley. Hazy
conditions surrounding the smoky area will extend into the Central
Sacramento valley into the Northern San Joaquin valley. On Sunday,
the general wind pattern transitions to a weak onshore flow which
should push smoky/hazy conditions eastward. DRP

.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Upper level trough along the west coast on Wednesday and moves
onshore later in the week bringing cooler temperatures and a
chance of precipitation. The models vary with the timing of the trough and
track of the low so confidence is low in the timing and coverage
of precipitation. The GFS moves the system through Thursday into
early Saturday and the ECMWF is slower and forms a low over the
Pacific Northwest on the weekend. Showers may start as early as
Wednesday over the coastal range and spread over the area on
Thursday...mainly north of Interstate 80. Showers may continue on
Friday and Saturday...especially over the mountains. Temperatures will be
in the 80s in the valley and 60s and 70s in the mountains on
Wednesday and drop down to the mid 70s to low 80s in the Valley
and 50s and 60s in the mountains on Thursday and Friday. These
temperatures are near to around 5 to 12 degrees below normal for
this time of year on Thursday and Friday.

.Aviation...

VFR conditions the next 24 hours all TAF sites. MVFR/IFR
visibilities east of SAC into the foothills and mountains due to smoke
from the King Fire. Isolated Thunderstorms possible along the
Sierra.

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

1151 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIAL
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND HIGH-RES MODEL TRENDS. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER HUERFANO AND SOUTHERN PUEBLO
COUNTIES WHERE THE 00Z NSSL WRF AND HRRR RUNS ARE INDICATING IT
WILL BLOSSOM OVERNIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART HAVE KEPT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR. HAVE LIMITED AREAS OF THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS WHICH CONTINUE TO COME IN DRIER WITH EACH HIGH RES MODEL
RUN. MOZLEY

UPDATE ISSUED AT 852 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

UPDATED TO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CURRENT RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...NORTHEAST ACROSS TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES. THESE
STORMS HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW MOVING...AND THE STRONGER CELLS ARE
PUTTING DOWN BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE INCH OF RAINFALL. IF
STRONGER CELLS MOVE OVER BURN SCARS...THEY COULD PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. AS FAR AS THE
PLAINS...THE HIGH RES MODELS STILL DEVELOPING AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND MIDNIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
SPREADING EAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MOZLEY

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED ACROSS THE
REGION...WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CA
COAST. THIS PATTERN WAS DRAWING MOISTURE UP INTO THE DESERT
SW...WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CONVECTION FIRING OVER NV AND SOUTHERN UT
AS OF 3 PM. ACROSS THE CWA...SFC OBS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HAVE
SHOWN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE PLAINS PRODUCING GUSTY
NE-SE WINDS AT TIMES...BUT WITH LITTLE OTHER EFFECT. TEMPS THIS AFTN
HAVE BEEN ABOUT THE SAME AS HAVE BEEN RECORDED THE PAST TWO DAYS.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE RIDGE PRESENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL START TO WEAKEN...WHILE THE
UPPER LOW OVER CA MOVES INLAND AND TRACKS TO THE NE INTO CENTRAL NV.
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO WESTERN CO IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS THE
LOW APPROACHES...BUT THE REAL STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE
CONTINUED PERSISTENT EASTERLY SFC FLOW THAT IS FORECAST FOR THE E
PLAINS AND MTS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A
VERY SLOW START TO ANY SORT OF PCPN OVER THE MTS...ALL THE MODELS
ARE STILL HANGING ONTO THE PROMISE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
OVER THE MTS MOVING OFF ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY BY 02Z...THEN ACROSS
PUEBLO COUNTY AND AREAS EAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. THIS LLVL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE...SO KEPT ISOLATED POPS ALL AREAS EAST WHILE THE MTS
AND WESTERN AREAS GET INCREASED POPS TO REFLECT THE INCREASING
INCOMING MOISTURE. MODELS DO INDICATE THAT TOMORROW WILL BE THE
FIRST BREAK IN THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...AS READINGS ARE FORECAST TO
WARM INTO THE 70S IN THE AFTN. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE BEGINNING OF
THIS PERIOD...MONDAY...AS A TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
COMBINES WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR. AT THIS TIME
THE MOST FAVORABLE PARAMETERS APPEAR TO FAVORING THE GREATER I-25
CORRIDOR REGION. SPC HAS AREA MENTIONED FOR ENHANCED CONVECTION
FOR THIS DAY.

TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR ALOFT INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME
RESIDUAL LVL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AROUND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
FAR E PLAINS.

WEDNESDAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY IS FCST TO MOVE DOWN THE PLAINS THIS
DAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL DOWN ALONG THE RATON MESA...AND THIS
AREA...ALONG WITH THE S MTNS...IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
WILL BE ON THIS DAY. PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE LOW END SCTD AT
BEST...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE S SANGRES.

THURSDAY...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON THIS DAY. GFS DROPS A
CUTOFF 500 MB LOW ACROSS C NEBRASKA WHILE EC HAS WEAK SW FLOW OVER
THE REGION. OBVIOUSLY...IF THE GFS IS CORRECT IT WILL BE COOLER
OVER THE REGION THEN THE EC. FOR NOW LEANED HEAVILY TOWARDS THE EC
GUIDANCE...KEEPING TEMPS UP INTO THE 70S AND 80S ACROSS THE
REGION.

FRIDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED....A DEEP TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE ACROSS CALIF WILL BE GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...TROUGH IS STILL FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST...AND MID LVL
FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAKLY FROM THE SW. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD
WITH ONLY ISOLD POPS AT BEST.

OVERALL...TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE L/M80S ACROSS THE PLAINS. THESE TEMPS ARE ABOUT 4
TO 7F ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. EXCEPT FOR
TUESDAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LOW. WE ARE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR PRECIP OVER THE REGION FOR THE MONTH OF
SEPTEMBER....AND HAVE BEEN THIS WAY SINCE ABOUT MID AUGUST ACROSS
THE REGION (SEE TEMP/PRECIP MONTHLY CLIMO CHARTS ON THE BOTTOM OF
NWS PUEBLO WEBPAGE FOR SPECIFIC NUMBERS). /HODANISH

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

KALS...SHOWERS ARE PASSING ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND WILL DO
SO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWERED CIGS TO AROUND 1000 FEET.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT WITH CIGS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

KCOS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING AROUND THE EL PASO
COUNTY AREA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE LATEST
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS
PUEBLO COUNTY. SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD HELP PRODUCE LOW CIGS AND
POSSIBLY FOG THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRATUS DECKS AROUND 2-5 KFT.

KPUB...MODELS INDICATING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY
07Z WITH LOWERED CIGS AND VIS DUE TO STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE IMPROVEMENTS MID SUNDAY
MORNING WITH STRATUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON RUNNING AROUND 3-6 KFT.
MOZLEY

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOZLEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

301 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THIS LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF
SUMMER. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION TODAY. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING DEPICTS A COUPLE OF
NOTABLE WAVES THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR REGION TODAY. THE
FIRST WAVE WAS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THE SECOND WAVE AS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE LAST WAVE WAS FURTHER UPSTREAM APPROACHING LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS IS AN EXTENSION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HIRESWRF REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY IMPACT LOCATIONS
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT AND SOUTHERN BERKS/ THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST. HERE
MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR AS WE
WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...THE COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT SLOW INTENSIFICATION. FURTHERMORE...UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL-EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COASTAL WAVE TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TIME FOR OUR REGION TO FULLY FEEL THIS WARM SECTOR
WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL
INTO THE MID TEENS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...SURFACE DEWPOINTS TOO WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 60F OR GREATER FOR THE REGION. AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE. PER COORDINATION FROM SPC...THE ENTIRE REGION IS
NOW WITHIN A "SEE TEXT" WITH 5% PROBABILITIES. 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALONG WITH THE HRRR AND LOCAL HIRESWRF SHOW A SCT-BKN
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPES CLIMB INTO THE MID 100S J/KG
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS CLIMBING TOWARD 50KTS. SO A LOW CAPE AND
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF
SITES...AND MVFR AT THE HIGHER TERRAIN TERMINAL OF KPSF. WITH A
PERSISTENTLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO MVFR FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPS AND MOVES UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR NYC/LONG ISLAND...MAY SCRAPE NEAR
KPSF/KPOU OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN
THE TAFS WITH A VCSH. ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED
OUT...WILL NOT INCLUDE IFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS/UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST CIGS WILL ONLY
LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS.

CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK TO VFR BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY AS DAYTIME MIXING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR
SOME CLEARING. HOWEVER...THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE
IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR KGFL...AND
A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR
WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY
TERMINALS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING THE TERRAIN MAY
ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR SUN NIGHT. SOME MIST MAY
DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT...ESP AT KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS
WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY
IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

225 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE EXPECTED
INTO SUN MORNING...WITH MOST AREAS DRY AND RATHER MILD BY SUN
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS START OFF COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MODERATE TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

230 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM LONG ISLAND
NORTHWARD ACROSS CT/WESTERN- CENTRAL MA FROM MID ATLC TROUGH.
PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THIS NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH
THIS UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

A SHORTWAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE A 30 TO 40 KNOT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...TRANSPORTING DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BURST OF
INSTABILITY AND A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING FROM.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z. WEST TO EAST. TIMING LOOKS TO BE AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 6Z AND 15Z.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL...BUT THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH
ELEVATED CAPE FOR A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXTREMELY LOW SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH 0
TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS/0 TO 1 KM HELICITY AROUND
100...AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE....CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM NEAR THE SOUTH COAST SUNDAY MORNING.
AGAIN THOUGH...THAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY BUT
SOMETHING WILL NEED TO WATCH.

LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. A LOT OF
MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ALONG THE FRONT. THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW SP.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.OT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
THE INTERIOR LATE SUN AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
DRY IN A GIVEN LOCATION. LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

*LOW CHANCE SHOWERS MON. THEN DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK
*COOL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK...MODERATING BY WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.
THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TROUGH DRAPED OVER
THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AS TIME GOES ON AND THE UPPER LEVEL MOVES NORTH INTO
CANADA. GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE ENSEMBLE NAO AND AO TELECONNECTION
FORECASTS TO STAY IN THE POSITIVE PHASES. THE PNA LOOKS TO START
POSITIVE AND GO NEUTRAL AS TIME GOES ON...BUT THEN MODELS DIVERGE IN
THEIR OUTPUTS AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALLOWS FOR SOME SPREAD.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

230 AM UPDATE...

THRU 12Z...

MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS CT AND WESTERN-
CENTRAL MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. ELSEWHERE VFR BUT EVENTUALLY
LOWERING TO MVFR AS SHOWERS SHIFT TOWARD RI AND EASTERN MA TOWARD
12Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

AFTER 12Z...MAINLY MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVY RAIN. LOW PROB OF IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MAY CLIP NANTUCKET AND CAPE COD. SHOWERS BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF AND MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER 18Z. VERY LOW RISK OF AN
ISOLATED TSTM ALONG SOUTH COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE..HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS EARLY.
CHANCE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AROUND 06Z ESPECIALLY WESTERN-
CENTRAL MA INTO NH.

MONDAY...VFR. MODEST W WIND. DRY RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL..MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TIMING BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
.HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z.
VFR THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR ANY SHOWERS ON MONDAY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE MVFR COULD BE NEEDED. WINDS AROUND 10KTS
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 OR 25KTS IN PLACES. THESE
WINDS DIE OFF ON TUESDAY AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

SEAS FROM 5 TO 8FT ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS...AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD FOR THE SWELLS.

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/99
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...NOCERA/99
MARINE...FRANK/99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

122 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL HELP WARM TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY... BRINGING SOME
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MOST
OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE
WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...STRATUS DECK WAS EXPANDING ONCE AGAIN UNDER A
SHALLOW INVERSION AROUND H925. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD AN EXCELLENT
HANDLE TO THE SKY COVERAGE AND ONLY MADE SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AN EXPANDING AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NYC/LI REGION AND APPROACHING NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THAT DISTURBANCE AND A POCKET OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH
AS THE HRRR AND LOCAL HI RES WRF AND EVEN 12KM NAM STILL
INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OR
TWO OF THUNDER.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED DUE TO
THE PERSISTENT GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE
MILD AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE 50S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS/DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO ATLANTIC
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THAT REGION IN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST DUE TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SHOWERS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
DURING THIS PERIOD...LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST
FOR ABOUT THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...AROUND 50
PERCENT POPS OVER THE CENTRAL THIRD...THEN ONLY 25 TO 35 PERCENT
POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD.

POPS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT 15 TO 40
PERCENT POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES THROUGH. MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE
HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS FORECAST TO BE DRY MONDAY AFTN...WITH A 20 TO
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

AS ANOTHER SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE IN MONDAY
NIGHT...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR.

A VERY MILD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 80S. STILL MILD SUNDAY NIGHT BECAUSE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATE AND TEMPS DO NOT HAVE A CHANCE TO DROP THAT MUCH...LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S AND A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER AS A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS ACROSS THE
REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
EXITING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH AN EXPANSIVE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. OTHER THAN SOME
EARLY MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY THE REST OF THE
DAY LOOKS TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING ACROSS
THE REGION.

THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A SEVERAL-DAY STRETCH OF GORGEOUS MILD WEATHER
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S
TO THE LOW 50S.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO
REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

THE SHOWER POTENTIAL INCREASES ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS OVER 25 MPH.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A
TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH
ACROSS ADIRONDACKS

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

106 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AS ANOTHER SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE IN MONDAY
NIGHT...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER AS A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS ACROSS THE
REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S
TO THE LOW 50S.

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT
AS A LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK DEVELOPS DUE TO MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
REGIME. CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR THEN EVENTUALLY IFR BEFORE
DAYBREAK. A DISTURBANCE GRAZING AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY
OVERNIGHT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
TO THE KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE VCSH TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS OUR REGION WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. CIGS
EXPECTED TO RISE BACK TO MVFR THEN EVENTUALLY VFR RANGE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS SUNDAY
EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KT...BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO
REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

THE SHOWER POTENTIAL INCREASES ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS OVER 25 MPH.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

325 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...SURFACE LOW PRES CENTERED OFFSHORE THE NC COAST WITH A
WEAK (TD/THETA) FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW TO AROUND THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION. MULTI-CHANNEL IR IMAGERY SHOWS THINNING MULTI
LAYERED CLOUDINESS OVHD WITH LIGHT NW WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
AND W-WSW IN ITS VCNTY. WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANLYS FIELDS SHOW A
NARROW MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM A LOW CENTER NEAR
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ACROSS NRN THROUGH THE BIG BEND AREA.

TODAY/TONIGHT...LITTLE MOVEMENT TO THE SURFACE AND MID-UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES EXPECTED TODAY AS THEY ESSENTIALLY WEAKEN IN SITU. RATHER
WEAK PRES/WIND PATTERN WILL ALLOW COASTAL SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP
AND BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER MEAN MOISTURE
AND THUS BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE SRN HALF
CWA...WITH POPS TRENDING RAPIDLY DOWNWARD TO THE NORTH. FAIRLY STEEP
POP GRADIENT...RANGING FROM 20 FOR LAKE/NRN VOLUSIA TO 50 FOR THE
TREASURE COAST/LAKE OKEE REGION. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LINGERING
EARLY EVENING SHOWER OR STORM. TEMPS LOOK FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
WITH M80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND U80S TO NEAR 90F INLAND.

MON-TUE...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO 2 INCHES... ARE SLOW TO CLEAR FLORIDA. VORTICITY
MAXES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MOVING NORTHEAST IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH KEEPS RAIN CHANCES HIGH...60
PERCENT...BOTH DAYS. HIGHS MID AND UPPER 80S.

WED-SAT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY CLEARS CENTRAL FLORIDA BUT
THE MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND KEEPING RAIN CHANCES HIGH..60 POP...FOR
ANOTHER DAY BEFORE DROPPING DOWN TO AND IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT
MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES. RAIN
CHANCES DROP TO 50 PERCENT THU THEN 30 TO 50 PERCENT THU THROUGH SAT
AS EASTERLY PULLS ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. DEEPENING
EASTERLY FLOW USUALLY HAS THE RAIN AND STORMS START EARLY AT THE
COAST THEN QUICKLY PUSH INLAND EARLY AFTERNOON AND LEAVE THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AT THE COAST
AND LOW 90S INLAND. HIGHS MID AND UPPER 80S.

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH ABOUT 16Z...WITH SHRA/TS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. LOWEST THREAT FOR LEE-SFB-DAB
BUT LEFT IN PROB GROUPS TO THE SOUTH.

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...A GENTLE TO MODERATE OFFSHORE (NW-WRLY) BREEZE WILL
SLACKEN...ALLOWING FOR ONSHORE COASTAL SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS SLACKEN FURTHER TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE
REBUILDS JUST TO OUR EAST. SEAS GENERALLY 3-4FT TODAY...SUBSIDING TO
2-3FT LATE TONIGHT.

MON-THU...LIGHT WINDS ON MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILD
FROM THE ATLC TWD CENTRAL FLORIDA. WINDS BECOME ONSHORE/EASTERLY TUE
AND REMAIN ONSHORE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST BUILDS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE
THAN 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 86 72 87 73 / 20 20 60 40
MCO 89 73 88 72 / 30 20 70 40
MLB 86 73 85 76 / 40 20 70 40
VRB 87 72 87 75 / 50 20 80 50
LEE 89 73 87 72 / 20 20 60 40
SFB 88 73 88 73 / 30 20 60 40
ORL 89 74 88 73 / 30 20 70 40
FPR 87 72 87 76 / 50 20 80 50

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....WIMMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BOISE ID

324 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...RADAR ECHOES WERE ACROSS NW
NV TO EAST CENTRAL NV AT 3 AM. THUNDERSTORMS WERE EVEN FARTHER
SOUTH NEARER THE UPPER LOW CENTER WHICH WAS OVER CENTRAL CA PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HRRR RUNS UNAVAILABLE SINCE 20Z. GFS AND NAM
BRING SHOWERS N OF THE NV BORDER TODAY WITH THE NAM EXTENDING THE
SHOWERS TO CHALLIS...THE OWYHEE MTS...AND KLAMATH FALLS THIS
EVENING AND OVER IDAHO TONIGHT THEN NE OREGON AND IDAHO MTNS
MONDAY. THE GFS WAS A BIT SLOWER AND FARTHER S AND W. LIMITED
INSTABILITY WAS ALSO PRESENT IN THE GFS/NAM SO HELD ON THE
THUNDERSTORMS...GREATEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE ID MTNS
SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
TODAY BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL THEN RETURN TO 5-10 ABOVE NORMAL FOR
TONIGHT /DUE TO CLOUDS/ AND MONDAY DUE TO MILD W TO SW FLOW ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS STILL SHOWING A
PATTERN CHANGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEK TO COLD AND WET. HOWEVER...THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE NEXT TROUGH TILL LATE THURSDAY NOW ON
THE 00Z RUNS. THEN THERE AFTER THE MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY THUS
CONFIDENCE REMAIN LOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE BRINGING MOISTURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW
IDAHO WHICH WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FRIDAY
HAS THE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
THE MODELS DIVERGE BEGINNING FRIDAY WITH THE 00Z GFS SLOWLY MOVING
THE FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND INTO EASTERN IDAHO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF...STALLS THE FRONT OVER SW IDAHO ON FRIDAY AS A
CLOSED LOW FORMS OVER RENO ON SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY THOUGH THE AMOUNTS
AND DURATION VARY GREATLY WITH THE ECMWF BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH AND GFS BRINGING MOISTURE /FAR LESS AT THAT/ FROM
THE PACIFIC. FOR NOW...ABOVE CLIMO POPS AND NEAR CLIMO
TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

.AVIATION...VFR THIS MORNING. INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
SNAKE RIVER VALLEY BEFORE 18Z...SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY INTO THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z. BY 00Z...EXPECT
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER
SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTH OF KMUO. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST AT 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTH TO WEST AROUND 10
KTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JDS
AVIATION.....JDS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

424 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING....AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND WEST TX REGION WITH RIDGING NORTHWEST INTO THE
ROCKIES AND EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. TO OUR
SOUTHEAST A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE SOUTH INTO FL AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN INITIAL
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST LOCALLY WORKING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ATTM. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WITH A SFC LOW PRESSURE
WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION WITH THE
BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION.

THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL BE
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN TROUGH...THE INITIAL
TROUGH AND THE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST CARVING OUT A
TROUGH FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC INTO NORTHEASTERN US REGION DOWN INTO
THE OH VALLEY REGION BY THIS EVENING. THIS TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT EAST AND NORTHEAST PUSHING EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF EAST KY BY MID
MORNING ON MONDAY AND EXTEND FROM QUEBEC INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE OH RIVER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED FROM THE MID OH
VALLEY REGION WEST TO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

SOME VALLEY FOG IS PRESENT THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME PASSING
CLOUDS IN THE 6 TO 8KFT RANGE. 1A6 AND I35 RECENTLY REPORTED VIS DOWN
BELOW 1 MILE WITH DENSE FOG AT I35. PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN
THE GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH A COUPLE MORE HOURS
OF PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR THE DEEPER EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
VALLEY LOCATIONS IN PORTIONS OF THE BIG SANDY...KENTUCKY...LIKING AND
UPPER CUMBERLAND RIVER BASINS. IN MORE OPEN TERRAIN LOCATIONS...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO DISSIPATE THE FOG OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS OR PREVENT IT FROM FORMING ALL TOGETHER.

A COUPLE BANDS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO OR DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN KY BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AND DEPART MOST OF THE AREA BY SUNSET...AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND WORKS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
RECENT SHORT TERM MODEL RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND THUNDER WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. POPS IN THE 50 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE WERE USED
IN THIS AREA. PENDING THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY FROM HEATING AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MODEL FORECAST MID LEVEL
DRYING...AND DECENT SPEED SHEAR COULD COMBINE FOR THE STRONGEST
STORMS TO PRODUCE SOME HAIL OR STRONG WINDS GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS ALSO CONSISTENT
WITH THIS THINKING. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE ADDED TO THE HWO. WITH A
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT THAT COULD MIX DOWN...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 MPH OR SO WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MORE OPEN TERRAIN LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME GUSTS
OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE.

THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON MONDAY MAY BE DEEP
ENOUGH AS THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WORKS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BEING DEEP ENOUGH FOR TOUCH OF DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES
GENERALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA AND THE VA BORDER
COUNTIES. THE 0Z GFS GENERATES SOME LIGHT QPF IN SOME OF THIS AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON MONDAY. THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO WV. EITHER WAY THERE
SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS OR STRATOCU OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY ON
MONDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE MORE COLD AIR ADVECTION DRIVEN WITH SOME OF THE FAR
EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS THAT WARMEST ON AVERAGE.

THE LINGERING CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON MONDAY. THE
MORNING STRATOCU SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT INTO SOME FLAT CU JUST BELOW
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH THESE GRADUALLY MIXING OUT OR LARGELY
MIXING OUT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS AT 0Z
TUESDAY...TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO REMAIN STRONG OVER THE
REGION...WITH WINDS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT PULLING DRY AND
COLDER AIR IN FROM CANADA. SOME OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT
COLD AIR WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. MORNING LOWS WILL ONLY
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND
OR JUST ABOVE THE 70 DEGREE MARK. OVER THE COURSE OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO OUR NE...BUT THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN BLOCKED OVER THE REGION. AS SUCH...DRY
AIR WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH THE
LOSS OF STRONGEST NRLY WIND FLOW AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND RISING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN SOME LOCATIONS ONCE
MORE BY SATURDAY.

THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL IS POINTING AT A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE
REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD...NAMELY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ALLOWING
MOISTURE FLOW AND PRECIP CHANCES TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
WHILE A COUPLE OF OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES WERE ON BOARD WITH
INCLUDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...THE UNCERTAINTY FAVORED LEAVING THEM
OUT AT THE JKL CWA AT THIS TIME. SO FAR...THE MODEL AGREEMENT PAST
THE MID TERM IS QUITE LOW. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH
THIS PRECIP...AND VERY LOW QPF AT THAT. MORE THAN LIKELY...THE SUPER
BLEND IS BEING INFLUENCED BY THIS LATEST ECMWF RUN...WHICH LED TO
THE MENTION OF A FEW 15 POPS IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT FORECAST.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS SHOWS NO SIGN OF THIS LOW NEAR THE REGION /IT
HAS IT DEVELOPING MUCH FARTHER S AND MUCH WEAKER/ OR ANY PRECIP
MOVING INTO KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT...LOWERED
ANY 15 POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT BACK DOWN TO 14. WILL WAIT UNTIL
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OR SHOW MORE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
RUNS BEFORE DECIDING TO INCLUDE POPS IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

OUTSIDE OF PATCHY FOG...AFFECTING LOZ AND SME WITH MAINLY MVFR FOG
AND SOME IFR OR LOWER FOG IN SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS...
MAINLY VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 14Z. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH INTO THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON THE INCREASE. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS CIGS AND VIS WITH
SHRA AND SOME TSRA SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE...THOUGH SOME
BRIEF MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS OR STORMS. AS
THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AND THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION MIXES OUT...
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 10KT FOR THE TAF SITES BY AROUND 15Z...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO
20KT POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY 16Z TO 22Z. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT GENERALLY 21Z THROUGH 0Z AND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TO BELOW 10KT LATE IN
THE PERIOD.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

236 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC HI PRES EXITING E OF NEW ENG THIS EVE...WHILE SFC LO PRES
SLOLY DEVELOPING SE OF CHS. RA FM ECNTRL NC CONTS TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY MOVING INTO CSTL NE NC SO FAR THIS EVE. 00Z/21 RUC
BRINGS AT LEAST SCT SHRAS NWD ACRS CSTL NE NC...MNLY E OF THE
CHOWAN RIVER...AND INTO EXTREME SE VA AFT 04-06Z/21. HAVE INCRSD
POPS A LITTLE OVR THOSE AREAS FOR THE REST OF THE NGT...WHILE LWRG
POPS TO THE N OVR THE ERN SHORES OF VA/MD. WIDESPREAD CLDNS WILL
COVER MOST OF ERN INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE FA OVRNGT...THOUGH
LOWEST CIGS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF HAMPTON RDS ON S
OVR (CSTL) NE NC.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST RUC SLOWER W/ EXIT OF CLDS/PCPN INVOF (SE VA/NE NC) CST SUN
MORNING...SO HAVE SLOWED DOWN TAPERING OF POPS W-E. OTRW...THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO
THE LOWER 80S...AS CONDS ARE P/MSNY W...AND CLEARING (MIDDAY/AFTN)
E.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY (AS OF 06Z) TRACKING NNE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK THROUGH
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. RA OVER ERN NC IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE N OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE N. ECG
COULD EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL -RA THROUGH 12Z...BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON VSBY. STRATUS AT SBY SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z...AND IFR AT ORF SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
ELSEWHERE...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT RIC/PHF...SO TEMPO IFR HAS BEEN
INCLUDED AT BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING 08-09Z AND ENDING 12Z. THE
LOW SHOULD QUICKLY PULLS OFF TO THE NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
THE WIND SHIFTING FROM NE TO NW ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NW. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER TODAY AND
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO SW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM RIC TO SBY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634-
654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-
652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ658.

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...ALB/WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...MAS/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

328 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK...THEN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 230 AM...SFC ANYLS SHOWED HI PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST WITH A
CDFNT DRAPED ACROSS THE CNTRL GTLAKES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
COUPLE OF IMPRSV S/WV`S UPSTREAM...ONE OVER LOWER ONTARIO MOVG
NEWD AND ANOTHER MOVG TWDS LAKE MI WHICH WILL APRCH THE FCST AREA
LATER TDA. INITIAL S/WV IS ASSCD WITH A BAND OF -SHRA BUT XPCT
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO PASS NW OF THE FCST AREA...MAYBE BRUSHING
WRN/NW ZONES EARLY THIS MRNG.

BEST 50A HGT FALLS WORK INTO THE FCST AREA 18-00Z AS MAIN TROF
AXIS APRCHS. NAM SHOWS CAPES GNRLY IN THE 500 J/KG RNG TDA WHILE
THE GFS IS MUCH MORE STABLE ACRS CNTRL NY. HOWEVER..THE GFS DOES
SHOW CAPES ARND 500 J/KG LATE TDA AT AVP WHERE LOW LVL THERMAL RDG
AXIS WILL BE LOCATED. NOT A CLEAR CUT SCENARIO TDA...SVR WX
CHECKLIST INDICATED POTNL FOR A FEW BKN LINES WITH ISOLATED
WIND/HAIL BUT NO SIG SVR. RUC SUGGESTS PRE-FNTL TROF WILL BE MOVG
ACRS THE RGN THIS AFTN. BELIEVE THE 00Z NAM12 IS OVERDONE WITH
IT`S DEPICTION OF CONVECTION LATE TDA ACRS CNTRL NY AND LEANED
MORE TWDS THE GFS/LCL WRF/RUC DEPICTION.

LATER TNGT AS FNT PULLS OUT...WRAP-ARND MSTR COMBINED WITH LAKE
INFLUENCES WILL BRING MORE -SHRA TO CNTRL NY.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL MON MRNG WITH SCT -SHRA ACRS CNTRL NY.
RIDGING ASSCD WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVER OH VLY SHUD ALLOW SOME
IMPRVMNT BY LATE MONDAY....SPCLY ACRS THE SRN TIER AND NE PA.

AFTER THIS TIME HI PRES IS XPCTD TO DOMINATE. A S/WV DROPPING SEWD
INTO QUEBEC ON TUE WILL ALLOW CANADIAN HIGH PRES TO BUILD
SWD INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING A "BACKDOOR" CDFNTL PSSG TUE NGT.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM.
UL TROF WL BE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST BY WED MRNG AND HIPRES AT
BOTH SFC AND ALOFT WL BE BUILDING IN. H5 RIDGE APPCHG 590 HEIGHTS
WL BE COMMON THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD. MED RANGE MODELS ALONG
WITH GFS ENSEMBLES HINTING AT A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGING ALOFT BUT
DISAGREE ON WHERE THIS CAN BE FOUND. THE 00Z EC INDICATES A
WEAKNESS OVR THE TN/OH VLYS WHILE THE GFS/CMC KEEPS IT SUPPRESSED
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

EITHER WAY IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO HV ANY IMPACT WHATSOEVER ON OUR
DRY STRETCH OF WX AS 1030MB SFC HIGH SITS OVR NERN U.S. 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES RUN ARND 565DM THROUGHOUT THE PD. WITH H5 HEIGHTS
RUNNING 1-2 SD ABV NRML THRU THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT TEMPS WL
RUN ABV NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS ARND 50.

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
MARINE LAYER HAS DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS MORNING AND IS WORKING NW
FROM NEW JERSEY BUT HAS STOPPED ITS PROGRESS JUST SHORT OF AVP.
HAVE REMOVED MVFR RESTRICTIONS FROM ALL NY TERMINALS THIS MORNING
WITH POTENTIAL REMAINING AT AVP, THUS HAVE TEMPO`D IN MVFR BETWEEN
06Z AND 09Z.

SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH AN OVC CIRRUS DECK TO START OFF
TAF PERIOD. AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT VFR TO
GIVE WAY TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 17Z AND
22Z. AS FROPA OCCURS STRATO CU IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND
FRONT WITH MVFR CIGS AFTER 03Z MONDAY.

WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH 5-10KTS THIS MORNING OCCASIONALLY GUSTING
TO 20-30KTS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 10-15KTS AND CONTINUE TO GUST.
AFTER 22Z AT NY TERMINALS EXPECTED WINDS TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST
FOLLOWING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AFTER 00Z AT AVP.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUE/WED/THU...VFR WITH EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS IN VALLEY FOG
PRIMARILY KELM.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...PVN/RRM
AVIATION...PVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

241 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AT 230 AM...SFC ANYLS SHOWED HI PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST WITH A
CDFNT DRAPED ACROSS THE CNTRL GTLAKES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
COUPLE OF IMPRSV S/WV`S UPSTREAM...ONE OVER LOWER ONTARIO MOVG
NEWD AND ANOTHER MOVG TWDS LAKE MI WHICH WILL APRCH THE FCST AREA
LATER TDA. INITIAL S/WV IS ASSCD WITH A BAND OF -SHRA BUT XPCT
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO PASS NW OF THE FCST AREA...MAYBE BRUSHING
WRN/NW ZONES EARLY THIS MRNG.

LATER TNGT AS FNT PULLS OUT...WRAP-ARND MSTR COMBINED WITH LAKE
INFLUENCES WILL BRING MORE -SHRA TO CNTRL NY.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

CLDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL MON MRNG WITH SCT -SHRA ACRS CNTRL NY.
RIDGING ASSCD WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVER OH VLY SHUD ALLOW SOME
IMPRVMNT BY LATE MONDAY....SPCLY ACRS THE SRN TIER AND NE PA.

AFTER THIS TIME HI PRES IS XPCTD TO DOMINATE. A S/WV DROPPING SEWD
INTO QUEBEC ON TUE WILL ALLOW CANADIAN HIGH PRES TO BUILD
SWD INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING A "BACKDOOR" CDFNTL PSSG TUE NGT.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGH PRES AT THE SFC. THESE FEATURES WILL GIVE
THE REGION AN INCREDIBLE STRETCH OF EARLY FALL WEATHER WITH
SEASONAL NIGHT TIME TEMPS AND MILD DAYS. MAX TEMPS LATE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
MARINE LAYER HAS DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS MORNING AND IS WORKING NW
FROM NEW JERSEY BUT HAS STOPPED ITS PROGRESS JUST SHORT OF AVP.
HAVE REMOVED MVFR RESTRICTIONS FROM ALL NY TERMINALS THIS MORNING
WITH POTENTIAL REMAINING AT AVP, THUS HAVE TEMPO`D IN MVFR BETWEEN
06Z AND 09Z.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUE/WED/THU...VFR WITH EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS IN VALLEY FOG
PRIMARILY KELM.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...PVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

324 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...AS
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. BEHIND
THE FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR MONDAY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AMPLIFIED FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A LARGE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH REMAINS UPSTREAM...BUT WILL HAVE A ROLE
IN CONDITIONS TONIGHT (DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION OF THE
AFD). FOR NOW...THE AREA REMAINS IN A REGIME OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
(SURFACE) TO WESTERLY FLOW (ALOFT) AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...IN A
GENERALLY FAVORABLE AREA FOR ASCENT.

AT THE SURFACE..A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE OHIO VALLEY REMAINS
IN THE WARM SECTOR...IN AN AIR MASS THAT HAS YET TO BE WORKED
OVER...DESPITE DIURNAL SURFACE STABILIZATION. AN AREA OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY EXISTS AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION AXIS...AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ILN CWA SUGGEST AT LEAST 500
J/KG (MAYBE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG) OF INSTABILITY WHEN LIFTING A
PARCEL FROM AROUND 925MB. WITH AROUND 40 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION...THERE WAS SOME CONCERN OF A
POSSIBLE MARGINAL HAIL THREAT OVER INDIANA AND INTO WESTERN OHIO.
ULTIMATELY...WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL FORCING...THE CONVECTION HAS
REMAINED GENERALLY UNFOCUSED. RADAR TRENDS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS SUGGEST NOTHING MORE THAN A THREAT FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN...AND
PEA SIZE HAIL AT MOST. THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION WILL
MAKE ANY GUSTY WINDS VERY UNLIKELY.

THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY...BUT
RECENT HRRR RUNS SEEM TO TIME THE PRECIPITATION FAIRLY
WELL...ALLOWING IT TO EXIT THE EASTERN CWA BY 15Z. WITH A GRADUAL
DOWNWARD TREND EXPECTED IN STORM COVERAGE...POPS BEGIN AS HIGH AS
80 PERCENT IN THE NW CWA BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 40 PERCENT IN THE
SE. BASED ON THETA-E DEPICTIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT WILL NOT GET INTO THE CWA UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. REDEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE FRONT CURRENTLY APPEARS UNLIKELY FOR MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF
US-23.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE EVENTUAL POSITIONING
OF THE FRONT...AS WELL AS SKY COVER. BEHIND THE MORNING
CONVECTION...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. TO THE NORTH...ADDITIONAL CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP...AS A RESULT OF THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. BECAUSE OF THESE
FACTORS...A GRADIENT WAS USED IN THE MAX TEMP GRIDS. FORECAST
VALUES ARE AS HIGH AS 80 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHEAST...WITH
TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO 70 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY EVENING...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH THE
ILN CWA. HOWEVER...THE AXIS OF THE 500MB TROUGH WILL BE ROTATING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MODEL
RH IN THE LOW LEVELS TONIGHT...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT A
STRATOCUMULUS DECK WILL ENVELOP THE ILN CWA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
THE WRF-NMM / WRF-ARW MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH CMC/GFS
GUIDANCE IN ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE
BEEN MAINTAINED IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS...THOUGH THERE WAS SOME
CONSIDERATION TO INCREASE POPS (KEEPING QPF LIGHT) IN THE FAR
NORTH. THOUGH COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE NOTABLE...THE CLOUDS
MAY ACTUALLY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM PLUMMETING TOO FAR.

AFTER THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE (PERHAPS NOT ALL THAT QUICKLY) ON
MONDAY MORNING...A VERY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SET
UP FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A SPRAWLING AREA OF VERY DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GET CAUGHT UNDER A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...BETWEEN THE
QUICK UPPER FLOW IN CANADA AND THE VERY STAGNANT TROPICAL
CONDITIONS WELL TO THE SOUTH. THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO START OUT
RATHER COOL...WITH 850MB TEMPS OF BELOW 5 DEGREES CELSIUS ON
MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE TREND THROUGH THE WEEK SHOULD BE FOR
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH VERY SLOWLY
MOVES EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY...IT APPEARS THAT MONDAY NIGHT /
TUESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...MIN TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S...ABOUT 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. RECORD LOWS AT THE CLIMATE SITES ARE WELL
INTO THE 30S AND SHOULD BE EASILY SAFE...BUT OUTLYING LOCATIONS
MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

WITH NO CHANGE TO THE PATTERN HEADING INTO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD...WITH SLIGHT
INCREASES IN TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AND SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AS THE
AIRMASS SLOWLY MODIFIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH
DAY...FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S MID WEEK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 DEGREES BY THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THRU NORTHEAST
KANSAS. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOV RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND BE WELL SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA BY EVENING. RADAR SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHWEST OHIO
INTO EAST CENTRAL IL. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THEY MOVES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE THERMAL
ENVIRONMENT. HAVE UPDATED TAFS TO TAKE THUNDER OUT OF ALL
TERMINALS BUT KDAY AND THERE HAVE REDUCE FROM TEMPO TO VCTS.
EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. CLOUDS SHOULD DISSPATE RATHER QUICKLY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT
ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDS. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPR LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE AFTN
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT CIGS TO BE VFR BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000
FEET HOWEVER CIGS COULD LOWER TO MVFR DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
ALSO NORTH OF I-70 THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE WHICH WILL
NOT BE MENTION IN THE TAFS.

SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10 KTS AND THEN SHIFT WEST WITH
FROPA ON SUNDAY AND BECOME NW SUNDAY AFTN. WINDS WILL GUST AS
HIGH AS 27 KTS SUNDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HAYDU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

1137 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
AROUND 12Z ACROSS FAR NE OK AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FOR
SITES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY AID IN FOG POTENTIAL
ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR FOR PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CHANCES FOR
TSRA WILL BE HANDLED WITH VCTS ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR JUST AHEAD
OF FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF FOG AND
ISOLATED THUNDER...AND FOR THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE TAF AS
DRIER AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...23

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

350 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

A moist, tropical airmass remains over West Central Texas, with
precipitable water of 1.5 to 2 inches. The highest values were
in Crockett county. The GFS and NAM models, along with the short
range Texas Tech WRF and HRRR models, indicate scattered shower
and thunderstorms development today, mainly along a west of a
Sonora, to San Angelo, to Sweetwater line. Locally heavy rainfall
is again possible, with the main threats being urban street
flooding and flooding of low water crossings. This will be similar
to the storms that were in the Concho Valley and Crockett county
Saturday afternoon. Will not issue a flash flood watch, as heavy
rainfall coverage will be localized, and as rainfall amounts
yesterday in the Concho Valley and Crockett county were not
extensive.

A weak cold front will move into the Big Country tonight and may
possibly reach a San Angelo to Brownwood line by daybreak. It`s
mainly a weak wind shift with surface high pressure building in
behind it. However, both the GFS and NAM have at least isolated
convection with it. Thus, have kept a slight chance of showers
going overnight over all areas, except southeast sections from
Junction, to Brady, to San Saba.

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

The medium range models are in pretty decent agreement through the
next 5-7 days regarding the synoptic pattern. Shortwave ridging
is forecast over the southern Plains early Monday, but a compact
shortwave trough will be making its way east across the central
Rockies. This will flatten the shortwave ridge and spread modest
large-scale ascent over the High Plains on Monday afternoon. This
may be a bit too far north to have much affect in our neck of the
woods, but rain chances continue across the area despite the
dearth of synoptic forcing.

Despite drier air advecting into the CWA in the wake of the weak
cold front, precipitable water values will remain around 1.5"
across much of the area. The aforementioned cold front will stall
over the area, providing a forcing mechanism for diurnal
convection Monday afternoon. Coverage will be limited, but should
be sufficient to warrant a 20-30% chance of rain, with the best
chances being over the Concho Valley and I-10 corridor.

On Tuesday, the models move the central Rockies shortwave trough
into the Plains. As this trough merges with the northern stream,
it is sheared apart, developing a cut-off, mid-level cyclone over
the southern Plains. This feature will become trapped under the
ridge, meandering over the southern Plains for several days. The
quasi-stationary front is expected to wash out, and with southerly
winds returning, we`ll maintain a moist axis over the western
half of the CWA. With the 850-700 mb thermal ridge remaining to
the west and the cut-off low over the Plains, low PoPs were
included over the western 2/3 of the CWA both Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoon. Coverage is expected to remain generally
isolated and mainly during the afternoon hours.

The ridge is progged to build over the top of the cut-off low,
creating a blocking "high over low" pattern. The GFS, ECMWF, and
GEM all have a deep trough digging over the West Coast by the end
of the week, but this blocking pattern should keep this trough to
our west through the weekend. With that in mind, dry conditions
and prevailing southerly winds are forecast Thursday through
Saturday. We`ll have to keep our eye on the behavior of the cut-
off low. If it ends up farther south than projected, rain chances
may need to be included some time later in the week.

Expect seasonal temperatures with afternoon highs typically in the
mid 80s and overnight lows in the 60s.

Johnson

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 86 65 82 63 83 / 30 20 20 10 10
San Angelo 86 66 85 65 84 / 40 20 30 10 20
Junction 87 67 88 66 86 / 20 10 20 10 20

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

04/25

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

203 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MAIN CONCERNS ARE RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD TRENDS TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT

CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...STRONG RIDGING OVER
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA...AND A POTENT UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. IT WAS THIS UPPER TROUGH...
WHICH MOVED IN A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...THAT
BROUGHT THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH LAST EVENING. THE
FASTER ARRIVAL TIME ALLOWED FOR A BETTER JUXTAPOSITION WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...RESULTING IN THE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IN SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WITHIN THE UPPER
TROUGH...AS SEEN ON THE 00Z ABR AND MPX SOUNDINGS...HAS LED TO
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SOUTHWEST OF I-94. NORTH OF I-94 THROUGH NORTHERN
MN AND NORTHERN WI...EXTENSIVE CLOUDS ALONG WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS
EXISTS. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS IS A REFLECTION OF MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS TAKING PLACE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE POTENT UPPER
TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...THE SHOWERS RESIDE ALONG A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT. REGARDING COLD AIR...RAP SHOWS 925MB TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
ALREADY TO 11-14C...DOWN FROM 18-20C AT 00Z. A BRISK 30-45KT WIND AT
925MB HAS HELPED TO ADVECT THIS COLD AIR INTO THE REGION.

THE POTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER OUR REGION IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE
MARCHING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT A FAST CLIP...DIGGING DOWN INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY 00Z MONDAY AND APPALACHIA BY 12Z MONDAY. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...IT HELPS PULL THE MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS BAND OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. HOWEVER...MAJORITY OF
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND OF SHOWERS FALLS APART
THROUGH THE MORNING AS IT DROPS SOUTH. THUS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 20-40 RANGE. CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY BREAK UP
THROUGH THE DAY...DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION AND ASSISTANCE FROM DAYTIME HEATING. ANY CELLULAR CLOUDS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON WILL THEN DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING. A MUCH COOLER DAY IS ON TAP WITH 925MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
HOLD STEADY BETWEEN 8-10C BETWEEN 12-18Z...A BREEZY NORTH WIND AND
CLOUDS. HIGHS IN THE 60S SEEM REASONABLE...THOUGH SOME CENTRAL WI
LOCATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 60.

THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO BUILD FULLY OVER THE REGION BY 12Z
MONDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DECOUPLE...AND GIVEN TODAYS
GRADUALLY CLEARING OF CLOUDS AND RECENT PRECIPITATION SHOULD LEAD TO
A DECENT SETUP FOR VALLEY FOG. TRIBUTARIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE...AND EVEN THE MAIN MS CHANNEL MAY ENTIRELY FOG UP TOO.
THE ONLY THING THAT COULD DISRUPT THE MS CHANNEL FROM FOGGING UP IS
IF THERE ARE SOME SCATTERED LINGERING CLOUDS FROM TODAY. A COOL
NIGHT IS LIKELY AS WELL...WITH SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS LIKELY
FALLING INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S. NO FROST ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME...SINCE THESE SITES SHOULD SEE FOG INSTEAD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

A SERIES OF STRONG TROUGHS MARCHING ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE UPPER RIDGE THATS OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDER
THIS UPPER RIDGE...COMBINED WITH LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
0.5-0.7 INCHES AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...WILL YIELD DRY
CONDITIONS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THIS SUN SHOULD HELP MODIFY THE
COOL AIRMASS THAT CAME INTO THE AREA TODAY...REFLECTED BY MODEL
925MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO 12-14C ON MONDAY AND AROUND 14C FOR TUESDAY.
THE SETUP CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE FOR VALLEY FOG AT NIGHT...AND IN
FACT SOUNDINGS DEPICT A VERY DEEP LIGHT WIND FIELD FOR 12Z TUESDAY.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOSE SAME EAST PACIFIC
TROUGHS WILL HELP EJECT THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND
LIFT IT INTO OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO SHEAR OUT
AS IT RUNS INTO THE BUILT UP RIDGING AHEAD OF IT. INCREASING
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE SHEARING OUT UPPER LOW...REFLECTED BY
PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBING TO 1-1.5 INCHES WEST OF I-35 AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY...AND DPVA SHOULD HELP TO INDUCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...21.00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND DRIER. IN FACT...THERE
ARE INDICATIONS NOW THAT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT DOES FORM TO OUR
WEST TUESDAY NIGHT MAY NOT EVEN HOLD TOGETHER BEFORE MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DESPITE
THOSE HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE THEREFORE CUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES MORE. ALSO REMOVED
THUNDER MENTION AS ANY INSTABILITY...EVEN IN THE WETTER 21.00Z
ECMWF RUN...STAYS ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH LESS PRECIPITATION
FORECAST...925MB TEMPS DONT COOL AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED...RESULTING IN WARMER HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN A VERY
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST PACIFIC AT 12Z WEDNESDAY MOVING ONSHORE BY
SATURDAY. A LITTLE BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS BEYOND THEN WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH...OR IF IT CUTS OFF. THE DOWNSTREAM
RESPONSE IS TO CONTINUE TO HOLD AND EVEN AMPLIFY RIDGING ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING
590 DAM OVER OUR AREA. A FUN LITTLE TIDBIT...LOOKING AT THE CIPS
ANALOG PAGE...TO FIND A SIMILAR 500MB PROG ONE HAS TO GO BACK TO
EARLY OCT 2010. IN ANY EVENT...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGING COMBINED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. EXPECT
AIRMASS MODIFICATION TO GRADUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...WITH
READINGS LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE WARMEST AIR
STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS...WHERE STRONGER RETURN FLOW EXISTS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

CLEAR SLOT BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION HAS SETTLED IN OVER BOTH
TAF SITES. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT THOUGH AS
CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARE
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
WITH THE TRAJECTORY THAT THE CLOUDS ARE MOVING...EXPECT TO SEE
THEM ARRIVE IN KLSE FIRST BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AND THEN IN KRST
AROUND 12Z. SHOULD BE MVFR CEILINGS FOR BOTH SITES WITH THESE
CLOUDS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE 21.01Z AND 21.00Z NAM BOTH
SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN SO WILL STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST. AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE CLOUDS
WILL GET PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH MIXING AGAIN SUNDAY FOR SOME
GUSTY NORTH WINDS UNTIL THE INVERSION DEVELOPS AND CUTS OFF THE
MIXING.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...04

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SACRAMENTO CA

855 AM PDT Sun Sep 21 2014

.Synopsis...
Lingering Sierra showers/t-storms are possible through this
evening. Otherwise, dry and warmer temperatures into early next
week. Cooler and possibly wetter weather for the middle to end of
next week.

.Update Discussion...
Upper low centered over central California a little slower to
exit than some model runs suggested, and continues to bring wrap around
moisture from the east into the forecast area. This system will
move into Nevada later today, but showers and thunderstorms will
continue to be a possibility into this evening. Current radar
shows some showers extending into Shasta, eastern Tehama, western
Plumas, Butte, and Sierra. This will continue and spread a little
farther westward, with a better chance of thunderstorms by early
afternoon. Have updated forecast to extend area of convection
farther west, into the east side of the northern and central
Sacramento Valley for today and as far west as the foothills this
evening. Have also increased cloud cover and lowered temperatures
a little for today. EK

.Previous Discussion...Upper level closed low center now appears from
satellite imagery to be somewhere over the northern San Joaquin
valley. IR image shows abundant cloudiness in the deformation zone
in the northeast section of the low. A short wave trough rotating
out of this zone and westward across north central California
brought light showers and isolated thunderstorms over the northern
Sierra and westward into the southern Sacramento valley overnight.
This disturbance has moved westward and weakened and the showers
have ended most areas. The upper low is forecast to move rapidly
to the northeast today with the center moving into Nevada by 18z
today. Instability progs show some minor instability still over
the eastern portion of northern California today near the back
side of the low so left a slight threat of showers and
thunderstorms over the east side mountains through this evening.
The remainder of the forecast area should see clearing skies as
the low continues eastward. Slightly cooler airmass today should
bring slightly cooler daytime high temperatures. Upper level high
pressure ridge sliding over the north state will bring fair skies
and warmer temperatures on Monday. The high will shift quickly
eastward on Tuesday as a low pressure system in the Pacific moves
towards the coast. Daytime temperatures Tuesday will be similar to
Monday before a bigger cooling trend expected to begin Wednesday.
Mid range models in fair agreement in bringing a Pacific frontal
system onto the north coast sometime early Wednesday. If current
models hold...parts of the CWA will be seeing light precipitation
as early as mid day Wednesday.

.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Extended models in fairly good agreement in moving a Pacific
Frontal system across the Pacific Northwest and NORCAL Thursday.
Nearly all of the CWA will see at least a chance of precipitation.
With cloud cover and cooler airmass...daytime highs will drop to
well below normal. Extended models begin to diverge a bit by next
Friday. GFS model progresses the upper trough axis east of the
forecast area by 00z Friday while the ECMWF lingers it offshore. GEM
model takes a middle of the road approach to the other two.
Regardless of the solution...next Friday looks to be a mainly
cloudy day with at least a threat of precipitation most areas.
Significance of model variance grows by next Saturday as GFS
would bring clearing and warming under a ridge pattern while a
less progressive ECMWF would keep showers in the region. Have kept
with the more middle of the road GEM and kept precip threat mainly
over the eastern portions of the CWA. RAP around moisture could
still be an issue for the Sierra next Sunday if ECMWF solution is
correct. GFS and GEM models show drying under a ridge of high
pressure.

.Aviation...

VFR conditions next 24 hrs except locally with SHRA/TSRA over Sierra and
northern/central Sacramento Valley this afternoon. Isolated TSRA
may linger through 06z for the foothills/Sierra. Lcl MVFR vsbys
vcnty King Fire from smoke near KPVF. EK

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS RENO NV

609 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
WITH THE MAIN PRECIP BAND BREAKING UP OVER LASSEN/WASHOE/PERSHING
COUNTIES, HAVE REDUCED THE POPS FOR THIS MORNING. WITH THE CORE OF
THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN NEVADA NOW, SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN. THE INSTABILITY IS NOT GREAT OUTSIDE OF THE CORE OF
THE LOW SO ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM HERE ON OUT SEEM
APPROPRIATE. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY BEFORE 18Z AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY. LEFT TEMPS ALONE DESPITE THE WARM START AS CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO BE ABUNDANT AND LIMIT HEATING. WALLMANN

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

SHORT TERM...

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

AVIATION...

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SACRAMENTO CA

427 AM PDT Sun Sep 21 2014

.Discussion...
Upper level closed low center now appears from satellite imagery
to be somewhere over the northern San Joaquin valley. IR image
shows abundant cloudiness in the deformation zone in the northeast
section of the low. A short wave trough rotating out of this zone
and westward across north central California brought light showers
and isolated thunderstorms over the northern Sierra and westward
into the southern Sacramento valley overnight. This disturbance
has moved westward and weakened and the showers have ended most
areas. The upper low is forecast to move rapidly to the northeast
today with the center moving into Nevada by 18z today. Instability
progs show some minor instability still over the eastern portion
of northern California today near the back side of the low so left
a slight threat of showers and thunderstorms over the east side
mountains through this evening. The remainder of the forecast area
should see clearing skies as the low continues eastward. Slightly
cooler airmass today should bring slightly cooler daytime high
temperatures. Upper level high pressure ridge sliding over the
north state will bring fair skies and warmer temperatures on
Monday. The high will shift quickly eastward on Tuesday as a low
pressure system in the Pacific moves towards the coast. Daytime
temperatures Tuesday will be similar to Monday before a bigger
cooling trend expected to begin Wednesday. Mid range models in
fair agreement in bringing a Pacific frontal system onto the north
coast sometime early Wednesday. If current models hold...parts of
the CWA will be seeing light precipitation as early as mid day
Wednesday.

.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

.Aviation...

VFR conds nxt 24 hrs. Lcl MVFR vsbys vcnty King Fire near KPVF.
Isold -shra mainly ovr nrn Siernev with sct TSRA psb hyr elevs
nrn Siernev aft 21Z til abt 02Z Mon.

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

645 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOST OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NYC/LI REGION HAS
REMAINED JUST EAST OF NW CT. WE HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED POPS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...STRATUS DECK WAS SLOWLY
EXPANDING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND INTO THE DACKS. SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE TUG
HILL AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

AS OF 330 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING DEPICTS A COUPLE OF
NOTABLE WAVES THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR REGION TODAY. THE
FIRST WAVE WAS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THE SECOND WAVE AS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE LAST WAVE WAS FURTHER UPSTREAM APPROACHING LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS IS AN EXTENSION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HIRESWRF REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY IMPACT LOCATIONS
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT AND SOUTHERN BERKS/ THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST. HERE
MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR AS WE
WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE
ALLOWED FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE VALLEY TAF SITES...AND IFR CIGS AT
KPSF. THE STRATUS HAD GENERALLY REMAINED SOUTH/EAST OF KALB/KGFL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT IT HAS STARTED TO CREEP NORTH AND WEST OVER
THE PAST HOUR OR SO...ALLOWING FOR MVFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO THESE
SITES AS WELL. THE PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES EARLIER DID ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP AT KGFL...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THIS HAS
BROKEN UP THANKS TO A LIGHT BREEZE AND APPROACHING LOW STRATUS. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT THE STRATUS TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND FURTHER NORTH/WEST
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WE WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST
MID MORNING.

BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...THE LOW STRATUS SHOULD START TO
ERODE AND CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK TO VFR AS DAYTIME MIXING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR SOME CLEARING. WHILE CLEARING WILL
TAKE PLACE FIRST FOR THE VALLEY TERMINALS...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AROUND
NOON FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AT KPSF.

THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR KGFL...AND A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER
CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN
SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING
THE TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME MIST MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP AT
KGFL/KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

644 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE
ALLOWED FOR MVFR CIGS AT KPOU...AND IFR CIGS AT KPSF. THE STRATUS
HAS GENERALLY REMAINED SOUTH OF KALB/KGFL...KEEPING THE LOW CIGS
AWAY FROM THOSE SITES AND ALLOWED FLYING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR AT
KALB. HOWEVER...THE CLEARING SKIES ALLOWED FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG
TO DEVELOP AT KGFL. WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE STRATUS TO EXPAND FURTHER
NORTH/WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WE WILL ALLOW A TEMPO FOR
MVFR CIGS AT KALB...AND IFR CIGS AT KPOU AS WELL...IN CASE THIS
OCCURS.

BY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...RADIATIONAL FOG SHOULD LIFT AT
KGFL...ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL RETURN TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR
CONDITIONS THERE AS WELL. BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...THE
LOW STRATUS SHOULD START TO ERODE AND CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK
TO VFR AS DAYTIME MIXING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR SOME
CLEARING. WHILE CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE FIRST FOR THE VALLEY
TERMINALS...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AROUND NOON FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN AT KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

619 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOST OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NYC/LI REGION HAS
REMAINED JUST EAST OF NW CT. WE HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED POPS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...STRATUS DECK WAS SLOWLY
EXPANDING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND INTO THE DACKS. SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE TUG
HILL AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.