Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 09/09/14

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS PHOENIX AZ

 
1040 PM MST SAT SEP 6 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES EACH DAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING BRIEF PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY REBUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER ACTIVE DAY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS OUR
CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AS MOISTURE FROM
WEAKENING HURRICANE NORBERT BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO OUR
REGION. AS EXPECTED...WITH PWAT VALUES STILL AOB 1.50 INCH...THE
MAIN ISSUES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WERE STRONG WINDS AND
WIDESPREAD DENSE BLOWING ACROSS THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA AS OUTFLOWS
FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER PIMA AND PINAL COUNTIES MOVED NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DID FALL IN SOME SPOTS...BUT
THEY HAVE BEEN MAINLY CONFINED SO FAR TO THE SAN TAN VALLEY AREA AND
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA...WITH MOST LOCATIONS STAYING DRY. ALONG WITH
THE HEAVY RAIN...PARTS OF THE SAN TAN VALLEY AREA ALSO SAW DAMAGING
WINDS...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS
LA PAZ COUNTY IN AZ AND IMPERIAL COUNTY IN SE CA.

AS FAR AS THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY
IS CONCERNED...THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH ACTIVITY
GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY BACK WESTWARD INTO SW AZ AND SE CA...WHICH
IS CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT FORECASTS. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST NAM AND
GFS MODEL SUITES CONTINUE TO PUSH PWATS AOA 2.00 INCHES ON
SUNDAY...THERE IS STILL A FAIR BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH/HOW
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL FALL ON SUNDAY...DUE TO THE FACT THAT
LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDS AND A RATHER WORKED-OVER ATMOSPHERE MAY
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. GIVEN THE AMPLE
MOISTURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE AVAILABLE...ANY STORMS SHOULD BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...MAKING THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS BEING HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING RATHER THAN STRONG WINDS OR BLOWING
DUST. AT THIS POINT...GIVEN ALL THESE UNCERTAINTIES...WILL PRETTY
MUCH GO WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 130PM MST...PER LOCAL HI-RES FORECAST MODELS...SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN ABOUT 2 HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SOME
ISOLATED STORMS IN THE WESTERN ZONES OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA HAVE POPPED UP. NOT SURPRISING AS THIS AREA HAS BEEN
UNDER NEARLY CLEAR SKIES ALL DAY SO THE HEATING AND INSTABILITY HAS
REMAINED IN THESE AREAS. OTHER LOCATIONS THAT HAVE FIRED UP ARE OUT
EAST IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH SOUTH AND WEST OF TUCSON. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INCREASING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE WHICH WILL IN TURN GIVE OFF SOME
OUTFLOW AND REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY AND
NORTHWEST PINAL AND SHOULD CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST.

EMBEDDED INVERTED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA TODAY WILL
BE THE LIFT NEEDED FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO TRIGGER. KEEPING A
SOUTHERLY-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH THE SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
IN PLACE.../TAPPING INTO BLENDED TPW SATELLITE 1.8 - 2.0 INCHES OF
PWAT/...THE INGREDIENTS ARE AVAILABLE AND READY FOR HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCERS. AS HURRICANE NORBERT CONTINUES A MOSTLY NORTHWARD
TRAJECTORY AND AN INVERTED TROUGH SCOOTS NORTH-NORTHEAST...A VERY
DIFLUENT COLUMN FROM NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
SUNDAY...WITH INCREASED MOISTURE YET AGAIN...THE BEST WINDOW OF
HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MID DAY.
OF COURSE...EACH DAY/S ACTIVITY HIGHLY DEPENDS ON THE PREVIOUS
DAY.../TOO CLOUDED OVER OR THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEING TOO OVER
WORKED/...AND THIS REMAINS THE TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND TIMING CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED AND FINE TUNED FOR THIS
FORECAST. REGARDLESS OF THE QPF AMOUNTS CERTAIN AREAS RECEIVE...MOST
ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS ARIZONA SHOULD RECEIVE RAIN DURING THIS EVENT.

AFTER MONDAY...OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODELS HAVE THE
REMNANT LOW FORMERLY KNOWN AS NORBERT ABSORBING INTO A WAVE WHICH
GETS SWEPT IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE TIMING AND SPEED OF THAT TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH ARIZONA INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AND ON TO NEW MEXICO. THE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY RECOVER...WITH HEIGHT
CHANGES EVER SO SLIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMALS IF THEY EVEN REACH THAT /103F FOR PHOENIX...104F
FOR YUMA/ BY NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE EVENING...IN SPITE OF INCREASING MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN...A MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS LEFT OVER FROM TODAY/S CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
ONLY ALLOW SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO FORM OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE REST OF TONIGHT AND MUCH OF SUNDAY...THUS ONLY GOING VCSH AT THE
TAF SITES FOR NOW. ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTH TOMORROW EVENING MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY A BIT AT THE TAF SITES DURING THAT TIME PERIOD...AND ALLOW
BKN CIGS TO FALL AS LOW AS 6K FT AGL. WINDS TO REMAIN MAINLY OUT OF
A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WITH CIGS FALLING AOB
10K FT AGL. WINDS TO REMAIN MAINLY OUT OF A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A GRADUAL DRYING TREND WILL COMMENCE TUESDAY AS MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE NORBERT EXITS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL REMAIN AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE
HOWEVER AND GOOD/EXCELLENT RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED ALL WEEK. AS FOR
WINDS...NO MAJOR WIND EVENTS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF LOCALLY
DRIVEN THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/DEWEY
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS PHOENIX AZ

 910 PM MST SAT SEP 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES EACH DAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING BRIEF PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY REBUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER ACTIVE DAY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS OUR
CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AS MOISTURE FROM
WEAKENING HURRICANE NORBERT BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO OUR
REGION. AS EXPECTED...WITH PWAT VALUES STILL AOB 1.50 INCH...THE
MAIN ISSUES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WERE STRONG WINDS AND
WIDESPREAD DENSE BLOWING ACROSS THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA AS OUTFLOWS
FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER PIMA AND PINAL COUNTIES MOVED NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DID FALL IN SOME SPOTS...BUT
THEY HAVE BEEN MAINLY CONFINED SO FAR TO THE SAN TAN VALLEY AREA AND
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA...WITH MOST LOCATIONS STAYING DRY. ALONG WITH
THE HEAVY RAIN...PARTS OF THE SAN TAN VALLEY AREA ALSO SAW DAMAGING
WINDS...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS
LA PAZ COUNTY IN AZ AND IMPERIAL COUNTY IN SE CA.

AS FAR AS THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY
IS CONCERNED...THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH ACTIVITY
GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY BACK WESTWARD INTO SW AZ AND SE CA...WHICH
IS CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT FORECASTS. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST NAM AND
GFS MODEL SUITES CONTINUE TO PUSH PWATS AOA 2.00 INCHES ON
SUNDAY...THERE IS STILL A FAIR BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH/HOW
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL FALL ON SUNDAY...DUE TO THE FACT THAT
LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDS AND A RATHER WORKED-OVER ATMOSPHERE MAY
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. GIVEN THE AMPLE
MOISTURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE AVAILABLE...ANY STORMS SHOULD BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...MAKING THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS BEING HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING RATHER THAN STRONG WINDS OR BLOWING
DUST. AT THIS POINT...GIVEN ALL THESE UNCERTAINTIES...WILL PRETTY
MUCH GO WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 130PM MST...PER LOCAL HI-RES FORECAST MODELS...SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN ABOUT 2 HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SOME
ISOLATED STORMS IN THE WESTERN ZONES OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA HAVE POPPED UP. NOT SURPRISING AS THIS AREA HAS BEEN
UNDER NEARLY CLEAR SKIES ALL DAY SO THE HEATING AND INSTABILITY HAS
REMAINED IN THESE AREAS. OTHER LOCATIONS THAT HAVE FIRED UP ARE OUT
EAST IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH SOUTH AND WEST OF TUCSON. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INCREASING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE WHICH WILL IN TURN GIVE OFF SOME
OUTFLOW AND REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY AND
NORTHWEST PINAL AND SHOULD CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST.

EMBEDDED INVERTED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA TODAY WILL
BE THE LIFT NEEDED FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO TRIGGER. KEEPING A
SOUTHERLY-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH THE SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
IN PLACE.../TAPPING INTO BLENDED TPW SATELLITE 1.8 - 2.0 INCHES OF
PWAT/...THE INGREDIENTS ARE AVAILABLE AND READY FOR HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCERS. AS HURRICANE NORBERT CONTINUES A MOSTLY NORTHWARD
TRAJECTORY AND AN INVERTED TROUGH SCOOTS NORTH-NORTHEAST...A VERY
DIFLUENT COLUMN FROM NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
SUNDAY...WITH INCREASED MOISTURE YET AGAIN...THE BEST WINDOW OF
HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MID DAY.
OF COURSE...EACH DAY/S ACTIVITY HIGHLY DEPENDS ON THE PREVIOUS
DAY.../TOO CLOUDED OVER OR THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEING TOO OVER
WORKED/...AND THIS REMAINS THE TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND TIMING CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED AND FINE TUNED FOR THIS
FORECAST. REGARDLESS OF THE QPF AMOUNTS CERTAIN AREAS RECEIVE...MOST
ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS ARIZONA SHOULD RECEIVE RAIN DURING THIS EVENT.

AFTER MONDAY...OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODELS HAVE THE
REMNANT LOW FORMERLY KNOWN AS NORBERT ABSORBING INTO A WAVE WHICH
GETS SWEPT IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE TIMING AND SPEED OF THAT TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH ARIZONA INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AND ON TO NEW MEXICO. THE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY RECOVER...WITH HEIGHT
CHANGES EVER SO SLIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMALS IF THEY EVEN REACH THAT /103F FOR PHOENIX...104F
FOR YUMA/ BY NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS SE AZ WHICH MAY INHIBIT CONVECTION
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. NONETHELESS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE STORMS
WILL FIRE AND MOVE INTO THE METRO THIS EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR
BLOWING DUST IS STILL THERE AND I WILL RETAIN THE TEMPO GROUPS FOR
BLDU THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE SOME SHOWERS IN THE AREA
AS WELL ALTHOUGH I`M NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PREVAILING RAIN
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AT ANY POINT DURING THE TAF PERIOD. MID
CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO LATE SUNDAY MORNING AT
ALL PHOENIX SITES.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE SE CA TAF SITES LATE
IN THE PERIOD...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A THREAT OF BLOWING DUST
BEFOREHAND. VCSH LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY AFTER 12Z AS DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A GRADUAL DRYING TREND WILL COMMENCE TUESDAY AS MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE NORBERT EXITS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL REMAIN AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE
HOWEVER AND GOOD/EXCELLENT RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED ALL WEEK. AS FOR
WINDS...NO MAJOR WIND EVENTS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF LOCALLY
DRIVEN THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/DEWEY
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS






SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA

 440 AM PDT SUN SEP 7 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE NORBERT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND TO SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. A COOLER WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY WARMING BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...

TROPICAL CYCLONE NORBERT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS IT
MOVES INTO COOLER OCEAN WATERS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA. GPS INTEGRATED PRECIPITABLE
WATER SENSORS ARE CLIMBING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA UP TO
AROUND 1 INCH...WHICH IS IN-LINE WITH GOES SOUNDER PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. A DEVELOPING CLOUD MASS CAN BE SEEN ON INFRARED
IMAGERY ALONG THE UNITED STATES-MEXICO BORDER. THIS CLOUD MASS
WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY LOOKS ON TAP FOR MOST AREAS. MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE STRUGGLING SOMEWHAT WITH THE TRANSPORT OF THE MOISTURE NORTH.
00Z NAM-WRF STRUGGLED DUE TO POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS SUPER
DRY 850 MB DEWPOINTS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL. RAP SOLUTIONS
HAVE BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH HANDLING THE MOISTURE IN THE
FIRST TWO PERIODS...ILLUSTRATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND
1.5 INCH BY THIS AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT. LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS STEERING WINDS ARE JUST
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS MOVING FAIRLY RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
AREA. IF THE DATA DOES CHANGE...FUTURE SHIFTS COULD DECIDE TO
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT.

STEERING WINDS LIGHTEN ON MONDAY AND THIS COULD POSE A PROBLEM AS
THE MOISTURE HANGS AROUND. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE NAM-
WRF AND GFS SOLUTIONS APPROACH 2 INCHES AS THE MOIST AIR MASS
SPREADS NORTH. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE ISSUED A LATER TIME
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING IF THIS DATA HOLDS TRUE FOR SEVERAL
MORE MODEL RUNS. WITH THE MOIST AIR MASS SPREADING NORTH AND
LIKELY A CLOUD SHIELD IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES WERE COOLED SOME
WHAT FOR MONDAY...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN GET MORE CONVOLUTED ON TUESDAY AS A TROUGH OFF
THE NORTH COAST OF CALIFORNIA DROPS SOUTH. MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MOISTURE FROM NORBERT HANGING AROUND OVER LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. THIS MOISTURE COULD GET CAUGHT UP
THE DYNAMIC OF THE TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA...AND BRING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO THE AREA. POPS AND WEATHER WERE INTRODUCED
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE
COOLED ADDITIONAL DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUD COVER AND
EVAPORATIVE COOLING TAKING PLACE.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRIER AS THE REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM NORBERT
MOVES EAST AND THE TROUGH PUSHES THE MOISTURE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA...BUT GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO
AGREEMENT FOR A DEVELOPING EASTERLY WAVE TO BRING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BETWEEN THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY. WITH THIS BEING A NEW FEATURE...POPS HAVE BUMPED UP AT
THIS POINT FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT...HOWEVER...NO MENTION OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS AT THIS TIME. WHILE A WARMING
TREND IS REFLECTED FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...WEDNESDAY COULD END UP
BEING THE WARMEST DAY IF THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS PLAY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...07/06Z.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z
TAFS.  VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AT COASTAL SITES THIS
MORNING AND DIMINISH 17Z-19Z. IFR-MVFR MAY REDEVELOP AT SOME COASTAL
SITES TONIGHT AND WILL DEPEND UPON HOW QUICKLY MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER
FROM HURRICANE NORBERT MOVES INTO THE REGION.  OTHERWISE AND
ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z
TAFS.  DUE TO MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE NORBERT SPREADING NORTH... MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS HELPING TO RETARD SURFACE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND
THIS SHOULD OCCUR AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT. A TWENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF
IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT COASTAL SITES AND ADJACENT VALLEYS
BY 16Z. AFTER 16Z...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING
AT LOS ANGELES COUNTY SITES... WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER 18Z. OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF DUE TO MOISTURE
FROM HURRICANE NORBERT SPREADING NORTHWARD.  THE MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER SHOULD HELP TO RETARD SURFACE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THOUGH THERE
IS A FIFTEEN PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
16Z. DURING THE PERIOD 20Z-05Z...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF DUE TO MOISTURE
FROM HURRICANE NORBERT SPREADING NORTH.  THE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER
SHOULD HELP TO RETARD SURFACE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. A TEN PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY 16Z. AFTER 18Z...THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...07/300 AM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
TO 25 KNOTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN POINT
CONCEPTION AND SAN NICOLAS ISLAND. FOR THE INNER WATERS...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.

HURRICANE NORBERT WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY WITH
LARGE SWELLS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE WEATHER IS OFF THE LOS
ANGELES COUNTY COAST WITH CHANCES LESSENING TO THE NORTH. A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE WEATHER.

&&

.BEACHES...07/300 AM.

A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES DUE TO HIGH SURF... HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK... AND POSSIBLE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING NEAR EVENING
HIGH TIDE.

THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN HEIGHT AND
PERIOD TODAY JUST AS THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE NORBERT ARRIVE. THE
HURRICANE SWELL PERIOD WILL BE SHORTER... NEAR 11 SECONDS... BUT
WILL KEEP THE SURF ELEVATED FOR AN ADDITIONAL DAY. THE STRONG RIP
CURRENTS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY THOUGH SWELL AND SURF IS
SUBSIDING EARLIER.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...KJ
BEACHES/MARINE....KJ
SYNOPSIS...HALL/SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA

 343 AM PDT SUN SEP 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE NORBERT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND TO SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. A COOLER WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY WARMING BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...

TROPICAL CYCLONE NORBERT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS IT
MOVES INTO COOLER OCEAN WATERS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA. GPS INTEGRATED PRECIPITABLE
WATER SENSORS ARE CLIMBING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA UP TO
AROUND 1 INCH...WHICH IS IN-LINE WITH GOES SOUNDER PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. A DEVELOPING CLOUD MASS CAN BE SEEN ON INFRARED
IMAGERY ALONG THE UNITED STATES-MEXICO BORDER. THIS CLOUD MASS
WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY LOOKS ON TAP FOR MOST AREAS. MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE STRUGGLING SOMEWHAT WITH THE TRANSPORT OF THE MOISTURE NORTH.
00Z NAM-WRF STRUGGLED DUE TO POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS SUPER
DRY 850 MB DEWPOINTS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL. RAP SOLUTIONS
HAVE BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH HANDLING THE MOISTURE IN THE
FIRST TWO PERIODS...ILLUSTRATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND
1.5 INCH BY THIS AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT. LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS STEERING WINDS ARE JUST
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS MOVING FAIRLY RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
AREA. IF THE DATA DOES CHANGE...FUTURE SHIFTS COULD DECIDE TO
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT.

STEERING WINDS LIGHTEN ON MONDAY AND THIS COULD POSE A PROBLEM AS
THE MOISTURE HANGS AROUND. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE NAM-
WRF AND GFS SOLUTIONS APPROACH 2 INCHES AS THE MOIST AIR MASS
SPREADS NORTH. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE ISSUED A LATER TIME
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING IF THIS DATA HOLDS TRUE FOR SEVERAL
MORE MODEL RUNS. WITH THE MOIST AIR MASS SPREADING NORTH AND
LIKELY A CLOUD SHIELD IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES WERE COOLED SOME
WHAT FOR MONDAY...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN GET MORE CONVOLUTED ON TUESDAY AS A TROUGH OFF
THE NORTH COAST OF CALIFORNIA DROPS SOUTH. MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MOISTURE FROM NORBERT HANGING AROUND OVER LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. THIS MOISTURE COULD GET CAUGHT UP
THE DYNAMIC OF THE TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA...AND BRING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO THE AREA. POPS AND WEATHER WERE INTRODUCED
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE
COOLED ADDITIONAL DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUD COVER AND
EVAPORATIVE COOLING TAKING PLACE.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRIER AS THE REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM NORBERT
MOVES EAST AND THE TROUGH PUSHES THE MOISTURE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA...BUT GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO
AGREEMENT FOR A DEVELOPING EASTERLY WAVE TO BRING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BETWEEN THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY. WITH THIS BEING A NEW FEATURE...POPS HAVE BUMPED UP AT
THIS POINT FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT...HOWEVER...NO MENTION OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS AT THIS TIME. WHILE A WARMING
TREND IS REFLECTED FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...WEDNESDAY COULD END UP
BEING THE WARMEST DAY IF THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS PLAY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...07/06Z.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT LIFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AT COASTAL SITES 04Z-11Z...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z AND 17Z.  OTHERWISE AND
ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE DUE TO
MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE NORBERT SPREADING NORTH.  MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER SHOULD HELP TO RETARD SURFACE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. A TWENTY
PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS AT COASTAL SITES AND ADJACENT
VALLEYS 08Z-16Z. AFTER 15Z...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SITES... WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER 18Z. OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE DUE TO MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
NORBERT SPREADING NORTH.  MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO
RETARD SURFACE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. A TWENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF
IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS 08Z-16Z. DURING THE PERIOD 20Z-05Z...THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE DUE TO MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
NORBERT SPREADING NORTH.  MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO
RETARD SURFACE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. A TEN PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS 08Z-16Z. AFTER 18Z...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...07/300 AM.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
TO 25 KNOTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN POINT
CONCEPTION AND SAN NICOLAS ISLAND. FOR THE INNER WATERS...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.

HURRICANE NORBERT WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY WITH
LARGE SWELLS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE WEATHER IS OFF THE LOS
ANGELES COUNTY COAST WITH CHANCES LESSENING TO THE NORTH. A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE WEATHER.

&&

.BEACHES...07/300 AM.

A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES DUE TO HIGH SURF... HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK... AND POSSIBLE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING NEAR EVENING
HIGH TIDE.

THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN HEIGHT AND
PERIOD TODAY JUST AS THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE NORBERT ARRIVE. THE
HURRICANE SWELL PERIOD WILL BE SHORTER... NEAR 11 SECONDS... BUT
WILL KEEP THE SURF ELEVATED FOR AN ADDITIONAL DAY. THE STRONG RIP
CURRENTS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY THOUGH SWELL AND SURF IS
SUBSIDING EARLIER.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...KJ
BEACHES/MARINE....KJ
SYNOPSIS...HALL/SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA

 1040 PM PDT SAT SEP 6 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

INCREASING MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE NORBERT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF
LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AND TO
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER MONDAY EVENING IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES AND IN THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY WARMING BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

MOISTURE IS SPILLING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM HURRICANE
NORBERT TO THE SOUTH. KNKX RAOB DATA INDICATE PERCIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 1.36 INCH...OR 158 PERCENT OF NORMAL. MODELS ARE
DIVERGING A BIT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...SOME KEEPING LOS ANGELES
AND VENTURA COUNTIES DRIER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE LATEST
NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE MOVING
NORTHWARD...BUT THE LATEST RAP SOLUTIONS SUGGEST MOISTURE
REMAINING FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS SEEMS A BIT
UNREALISTIC...BLOWING UP DRIER AIR OVER THE SANTA MONICA BAY. THE
FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN TACT FOR NOW UNTIL MORE DATA ARRIVES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...ALL EYES WILL
BE ON HURRICANE NORBERT. AS OF 2 PM PDT...THE CENTER OF NORBERT
WAS LOCATED AROUND 530 MILES SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO...AND CONTINUES TO
TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 8 MILES PER HOUR. THE LATEST
HURRICANE CENTER BULLETIN AS OF 2 PM HAS DOWNGRADED NORBERT TO A
CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 105 MPH. AS NORBERT
CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO RELATIVELY COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE CENTER OF THE DISSIPATED CYCLONE
IS THEN EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE MAIN IMPACTS OF NORBERT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE INCREASING
MOISTURE WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH
ELEVATED SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. HURRICANE NORBERT HAS
A VERY RICH MOISTURE SUPPLY WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATING A LARGE AREA
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND 3 INCHES! ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAKING AT AROUND 2 INCHES
BY MONDAY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN ACROSS
LOS ANGELES COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY MORNING.
THE MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN SHIFT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS VENTURA AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES (ALONG WITH THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS) SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST THREAT OF STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY WHERE POPS ARE IN THE 40 PERCENT RANGE.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR REMAINING COASTAL/VALLEY LOCATIONS. IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS 850 MB DEWPOINTS CLIMB TO BETWEEN 13 AND 15 DEGREES
CELSIUS DURING EVENT. IN ADDITION...ADDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL AREAS AS MODELS ARE SHOWING A RATHER BROAD
AREA OF K-INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 40.

DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE
GREATEST THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE BIG QUESTION MARK AT THIS POINT WILL BE
WHETHER OR NOT WE GET ENOUGH BREAKS IN CLOUD COVERAGE TO ALLOW
FOR SOME DAYTIME HEATING TO ADEQUATELY DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.
IF WE BEGIN TO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVERAGE...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVERAGE WILL ALSO GREATLY IMPACT MAX TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY. WITH EVEN WEAKER ONSHORE GRADIENTS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL HELP KEEP MOST OF THE VALLEYS IN THE 90S ON
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL COULD CERTAINLY BRING
HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100 DEGREES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN SHIFTING NORBERT MOISTURE TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY WITH
DRYING TREND ACROSS THE REGION.

LONG TERM...AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BRING A
WARMING TREND DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SHALLOW MARINE LAYER
DURING PERIOD WITH ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONFINED TO COASTAL
AREAS. DRY WEATHER THROUGH PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...07/06Z.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT LIFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AT COASTAL SITES 04Z-11Z...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z AND 17Z.  OTHERWISE AND
ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE DUE TO
MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE NORBERT SPREADING NORTH.  MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER SHOULD HELP TO RETARD SURFACE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. A TWENTY
PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS AT COASTAL SITES AND ADJACENT
VALLEYS 08Z-16Z. AFTER 15Z...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SITES... WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER 18Z. OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE DUE TO MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
NORBERT SPREADING NORTH.  MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO
RETARD SURFACE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. A TWENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF
IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS 08Z-16Z. DURING THE PERIOD 20Z-05Z...THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE DUE TO MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
NORBERT SPREADING NORTH.  MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO
RETARD SURFACE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. A TEN PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS 08Z-16Z. AFTER 18Z...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...06/900 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN POINT
CONCEPTION AND SAN NICOLAS ISLAND.FOR THE INNER WATERS...CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE NORBERT WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL
LIKELY IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE IN CONVECTIVE STORMS DEVELOPING.
A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.BEACHES...06/900 PM.

A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WILL BE CONTINUED AS THE SWELL PERIOD
WILL SHORTEN THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE NORBERT
ARRIVE. THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH IN HEIGHT AND PERIOD AND BE REPLACED A SE SWELL FROM
HURRICANE NORBERT. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SWELL
ARRIVING AS FORECAST...AND THE PERIOD IS LIKELY TO BE ON THE
SHORTER SIDE AT AROUND 11 SECONDS. ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE
CURRENTS MAY IN FACT CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SWELL AND
SURF WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE/BEACHES...HALL
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA

 919 PM PDT SAT SEP 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

INCREASING MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE NORBERT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF
LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AND TO
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER MONDAY EVENING IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES AND IN THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY WARMING BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

MOISTURE IS SPILLING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM HURRICANE
NORBERT TO THE SOUTH. KNKX RAOB DATA INDICATE PERCIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 1.36 INCH...OR 158 PERCENT OF NORMAL. MODELS ARE
DIVERGING A BIT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...SOME KEEPING LOS ANGELES
AND VENTURA COUNTIES DRIER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE LATEST
NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE MOVING
NORTHWARD...BUT THE LATEST RAP SOLUTIONS SUGGEST MOISTURE
REMAINING FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS SEEMS A BIT
UNREALISTIC...BLOWING UP DRIER AIR OVER THE SANTA MONICA BAY. THE
FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN TACT FOR NOW UNTIL MORE DATA ARRIVES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...ALL EYES WILL
BE ON HURRICANE NORBERT. AS OF 2 PM PDT...THE CENTER OF NORBERT
WAS LOCATED AROUND 530 MILES SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO...AND CONTINUES TO
TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 8 MILES PER HOUR. THE LATEST
HURRICANE CENTER BULLETIN AS OF 2 PM HAS DOWNGRADED NORBERT TO A
CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 105 MPH. AS NORBERT
CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO RELATIVELY COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE CENTER OF THE DISSIPATED CYCLONE
IS THEN EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE MAIN IMPACTS OF NORBERT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE INCREASING
MOISTURE WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH
ELEVATED SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. HURRICANE NORBERT HAS
A VERY RICH MOISTURE SUPPLY WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATING A LARGE AREA
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND 3 INCHES! ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAKING AT AROUND 2 INCHES
BY MONDAY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN ACROSS
LOS ANGELES COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY MORNING.
THE MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN SHIFT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS VENTURA AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES (ALONG WITH THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS) SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST THREAT OF STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY WHERE POPS ARE IN THE 40 PERCENT RANGE.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR REMAINING COASTAL/VALLEY LOCATIONS. IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS 850 MB DEWPOINTS CLIMB TO BETWEEN 13 AND 15 DEGREES
CELSIUS DURING EVENT. IN ADDITION...ADDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL AREAS AS MODELS ARE SHOWING A RATHER BROAD
AREA OF K-INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 40.

DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE
GREATEST THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE BIG QUESTION MARK AT THIS POINT WILL BE
WHETHER OR NOT WE GET ENOUGH BREAKS IN CLOUD COVERAGE TO ALLOW
FOR SOME DAYTIME HEATING TO ADEQUATELY DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.
IF WE BEGIN TO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVERAGE...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVERAGE WILL ALSO GREATLY IMPACT MAX TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY. WITH EVEN WEAKER ONSHORE GRADIENTS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL HELP KEEP MOST OF THE VALLEYS IN THE 90S ON
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL COULD CERTAINLY BRING
HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100 DEGREES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN SHIFTING NORBERT MOISTURE TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY WITH
DRYING TREND ACROSS THE REGION.

LONG TERM...AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BRING A
WARMING TREND DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SHALLOW MARINE LAYER
DURING PERIOD WITH ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONFINED TO COASTAL
AREAS. DRY WEATHER THROUGH PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...07/0052Z.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD IN
BETWEEN 04Z AND 11Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 08Z AND 16Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REDEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z AND
17Z.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE NORBERT SPREADING NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAINLY
BETWEEN 08Z AND 16Z. AFTER 15Z...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE COASTAL AND VALLEY TERMINALS.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z. THERE IS A
50 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z. THERE IS
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z AND 16Z. THERE IS A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTER 16Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
20 PERCENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTER 19Z.

&&

.MARINE...06/900 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN POINT
CONCEPTION AND SAN NICOLAS ISLAND.FOR THE INNER WATERS...CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE NORBERT WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL
LIKELY IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE IN CONVECTIVE STORMS DEVELOPING.
A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.BEACHES...06/900 PM.

A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WILL BE CONTINUED AS THE SWELL PERIOD
WILL SHORTEN THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE NORBERT
ARRIVE. THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH IN HEIGHT AND PERIOD AND BE REPLACED A SE SWELL FROM
HURRICANE NORBERT. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SWELL
ARRIVING AS FORECAST...AND THE PERIOD IS LIKELY TO BE ON THE
SHORTER SIDE AT AROUND 11 SECONDS. ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE
CURRENTS MAY IN FACT CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SWELL AND
SURF WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE/BEACHES...HALL
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS JACKSONVILLE FL

 530 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

...FLOOD THREAT PERSISTS IN THE SUWANNEE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY THIS
WEEK...

.CURRENTLY...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT IS EXITING THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION...AND IS ENTERING THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE...THE AXIS OF ATLANTIC RIDGING
EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ALOFT...WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW
PREVAILS OVER OUR REGION...IN BETWEEN RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SLOW MOVING NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION HAS ONCE AGAIN FIRED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY...WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF COLUMBIA COUNTY ONCE
AGAIN BEING THE TARGET AREA OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS. DOPPLER RADAR
ESTIMATES DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS DEPICT A SWATH OF 5 TO 8 INCH
RAINS IN SOUTHERN COLUMBIA AND FAR EASTERN SUWANEE COUNTIES...WITH A
BULLS-EYE OF 9 TO 14 INCH TOTALS JUST SOUTH OF LAKE CITY. WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...SOME CONTAINING RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER
HOUR...FALLING OVER THESE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS...A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA COUNTY THROUGH 7
AM. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVERSPREADING
THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...AS WELL AS
COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. BENEATH EXTENSIVE MULTI-LAYERED
CLOUDINESS...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AT 09Z WERE GENERALLY IN THE
MID 70S.

.NEAR TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
SHORT TERM HI-RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE 03Z HRRR HAVE
INITIALIZED THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE BURST OVER THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY...AND THIS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION
SOUTH AND EASTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST GA
LATER TODAY...WHICH SHOULD LIFT LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
INTO COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...MORNING
CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST FL AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA WILL LIKELY
FADE BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING INTO OUR REGION DURING PEAK
HEATING...ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS OVER MUCH OF OUR REGION. CATEGORICAL POPS WERE THUS
INSERTED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GA...WHERE THE GREATEST MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WILL BE LOCATED LATER TODAY. SINCE WE EXPECT A BREAK
IN THE HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY LATER THIS
MORNING...WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY LARGE SCALE FLOOD
WATCHES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE A
GROWING CONCERN REGION-WIDE AS TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
DURING AT THE LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND WEAK STEERING FLOW
ALOFT RESULTS IN CONTINUED SLOW MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION. SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS MORNING
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO NEAR 90 BEFORE CLOUDS AND
RAINFALL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...ABUNDANT CLOUDS WILL
KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

WIDESPREAD RAINS MAY BE SLOW TO DEPART COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA
TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
AHEAD OF THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS SHOULD
DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVER NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A BAND OF CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ON MONDAY...AND
THIS ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL FL BEFORE
SUNRISE. THE TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 70S REGION-
WIDE.

.SHORT TERM (MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER OUR REGION ON MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE GA/SC COASTS.
MEANWHILE...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE JUST WEST OF
OUR REGION...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICTING DEEP W/SW FLOW
PERSISTING ALONG A TRAILING TROUGH FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THIS
TROUGH AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
MUCH OF OUR REGION. ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF FLOODING IN
PLACE...PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AND COASTAL LOCATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND A RELATIVELY
EARLY START TO CONVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
RAINFALL SHOULD DIMINISH OVER MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS ON MON...WITH MUGGY LOWS IN THE 70S EXPECTED.

TUE...A WAKE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
PARENT LOW TRACKS NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THIS BOUNDARY
COMBINED WITH A LINGERING PLUME OF HIGHER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER NE FL TUE AFTN...AND PROVIDE A FOCUS ANOTHER
ROUND OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTORMS. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
WILL GRADUALLY INFILTRATE OVER SE GA THROUGH TUE AND ADVERTISED
LOWER RAIN CHANCES IN THE 40-50% RANGE...WITH 60% OVER NE FL
DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. PRECIP WILL SHIFT TO THE ESE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WILL DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY. HIGH TEMPS TUE WILL RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S INLAND TO LOW/MID 80S COAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TUE
NIGHT FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S INLAND WITH DRIER AIR
IN PLACE AND CLEARING SKIES. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE.

WED...LOWER RAIN CHANCES WITH STACKED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA...HOWEVER LINGERING MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER INLAND NE FL. RAIN CHANCES RANGE
FROM 30% OVER INLAND SE GA TO 35% OVER INLAND NE FL. WARM UPPER
LEVEL TEMPS AND SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS TAME AND SPARSE
IN COVERAGE...SO ONLY INDICATED ISOLATED TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW 90S INLAND TO MID 80S COAST WITH LOWS
COOLING INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND/MID 70S COAST WED NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THU & FRI MEAN LAYER 1000-500 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS NE
FL AND SE GA WITH PWATS FALLING INTO THE 1.5-1.9 RANGE WITH THE
HIGHER VALUES OVER SE GA. ADVERTISED NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW RAIN
CHANCES BOTH DAYS IN THE 30-40% RANGE WITH A DIURNAL PATTERN AND
LIGHT SOUTH STEERING FLOW WHICH WILL ENABLE BOTH SEA BREEZES TO
PUSH INLAND AND FOCUS A MERGER BETWEEN THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN
AND INTERSTATE 75. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN
STACKED SUBSIDENCE WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S INLAND TO MID 80S
COAST...WITH MILD LOWS RANGING IN THE 70S.

SAT & SUN RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS A FRONTAL ZONE STALLS OVER GA
AND A TROPICAL WAVE ROTATES NORTHWARD FROM THE BAHAMAS. PWATS
INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES BY SUNDAY. THUS INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
INTO THE 40-50% RANGE...BUT IF MODEL PERSISTENCE
CONTINUES...LIKELY POPS MAY BE NEEDED NEXT WEEKEND (60-70%). TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO FALL BACK TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO FOR HIGHS
GIVEN INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND LOWER THICKNESSES WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 80S AND MUGGY LOWS CONTINUING IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WITH TEMPO GROUPS USED FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND MVFR CIGS
THROUGH AROUND 12Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER
OUR REGION DEVELOPS NUMEROUS SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER 15Z. OUTSIDE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION
THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST NORTHWEST OF
THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. WAVES OF HEAVY SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERIODICALLY OVERSPREAD THE WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 15 MPH OUTSIDE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SEAS REMAIN IN THE 2 TO
3 FOOT RANGE. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS FOR THE MID AND LATE WEEK TIME FRAME...WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES AND LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND
SPEEDS...WITH THE DAILY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING IN THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK CONTINUES...WITH A SMALL SOUTHEASTERLY
OCEAN SWELL OF LESS THAN 2 FEET AFFECTING THE BEACHES DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  72  89  72 /  80  70  70  60
SSI  85  75  85  74 /  80  70  70  60
JAX  87  73  88  73 /  80  60  70  60
SGJ  86  75  87  73 /  80  60  60  60
GNV  87  72  88  71 /  70  50  60  50
OCF  88  72  88  72 /  70  40  60  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

NELSON/ENYEDI











AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSONVILLE FL

 524 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

...FLOOD THREAT PERSISTS IN THE SUWANNEE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY THIS
WEEK...

.CURRENTLY...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT IS EXITING THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION...AND IS ENTERING THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE...THE AXIS OF ATLANTIC RIDGING
EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ALOFT...WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW
PREVAILS OVER OUR REGION...IN BETWEEN RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SLOW MOVING NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION HAS ONCE AGAIN FIRED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY...WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF COLUMBIA COUNTY ONCE
AGAIN BEING THE TARGET AREA OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS. DOPPLER RADAR
ESTIMATES DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS DEPICT A SWATH OF 5 TO 8 INCH
RANGE IN SOUTHERN COLUMBIA AND FAR EASTERN SUWANEE COUNTIES...WITH
A BULLS-EYE OF 9 TO 14 INCH TOTALS JUST SOUTH OF LAKE CITY. WITH
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...SOME CONTAINING RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES PER HOUR...FALLING OVER THESE SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL
COLUMBIA COUNTY THROUGH 7 AM. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST AND
NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...AS WELL AS COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
BENEATH EXTENSIVE MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS...TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS AT 09Z WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S.

.NEAR TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
SHORT TERM HI-RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE 03Z HRRR HAVE
INITIALIZED THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE BURST OVER THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY...AND THIS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION
SOUTH AND EASTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST GA
LATER TODAY...WHICH SHOULD LIFT LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
INTO COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...MORNING
CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST FL AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA WILL LIKELY
FADE BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING INTO OUR REGION DURING PEAK
HEATING...ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS OVER MUCH OF OUR REGION. CATEGORICAL POPS WERE THUS
INSERTED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GA...WHERE THE GREATEST MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WILL BE LOCATED LATER TODAY. SINCE WE EXPECT A BREAK
IN THE HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY LATER THIS
MORNING...WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY LARGE SCALE FLOOD
WATCHES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE A
GROWING CONCERN REGION-WIDE AS TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
DURING AT THE LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND WEAK STEERING FLOW
ALOFT RESULTS IN CONTINUED SLOW MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION. SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS MORNING
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO NEAR 90 BEFORE CLOUDS AND
RAINFALL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...ABUNDANT CLOUDS WILL
KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

WIDESPREAD RAINS MAY BE SLOW TO DEPART COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA
TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
AHEAD OF THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS SHOULD
DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVER NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A BAND OF CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ON MONDAY...AND
THIS ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL FL BEFORE
SUNRISE. THE TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 70S REGION-
WIDE.

.SHORT TERM (MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER OUR REGION ON MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE GA/SC COASTS.
MEANWHILE...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE JUST WEST OF
OUR REGION...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICTING DEEP W/SW FLOW
PERSISTING ALONG A TRAILING TROUGH FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THIS
TROUGH AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
MUCH OF OUR REGION. ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF FLOODING IN
PLACE...PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AND COASTAL LOCATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND A RELATIVELY
EARLY START TO CONVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
RAINFALL SHOULD DIMINISH OVER MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS ON MON...WITH MUGGY LOWS IN THE 70S EXPECTED.

TUE...A WAKE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
PARENT LOW TRACKS NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THIS BOUNDARY
COMBINED WITH A LINGERING PLUME OF HIGHER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER NE FL TUE AFTN...AND PROVIDE A FOCUS ANOTHER
ROUND OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTORMS. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
WILL GRADUALLY INFILTRATE OVER SE GA THROUGH TUE AND ADVERTISED
LOWER RAIN CHANCES IN THE 40-50% RANGE...WITH 60% OVER NE FL
DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. PRECIP WILL SHIFT TO THE ESE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WILL DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY. HIGH TEMPS TUE WILL RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S INLAND TO LOW/MID 80S COAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TUE
NIGHT FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S INLAND WITH DRIER AIR
IN PLACE AND CLEARING SKIES. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE.

WED...LOWER RAIN CHANCES WITH STACKED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA...HOWEVER LINGERING MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER INLAND NE FL. RAIN CHANCES RANGE
FROM 30% OVER INLAND SE GA TO 35% OVER INLAND NE FL. WARM UPPER
LEVEL TEMPS AND SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS TAME AND SPARSE
IN COVERAGE...SO ONLY INDICATED ISOLATED TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW 90S INLAND TO MID 80S COAST WITH LOWS
COOLING INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND/MID 70S COAST WED NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THU & FRI MEAN LAYER 1000-500 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS NE
FL AND SE GA WITH PWATS FALLING INTO THE 1.5-1.9 RANGE WITH THE
HIGHER VALUES OVER SE GA. ADVERTISED NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW RAIN
CHANCES BOTH DAYS IN THE 30-40% RANGE WITH A DIURNAL PATTERN AND
LIGHT SOUTH STEERING FLOW WHICH WILL ENABLE BOTH SEA BREEZES TO
PUSH INLAND AND FOCUS A MERGER BETWEEN THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN
AND INTERSTATE 75. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN
STACKED SUBSIDENCE WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S INLAND TO MID 80S
COAST...WITH MILD LOWS RANGING IN THE 70S.

SAT & SUN RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS A FRONTAL ZONE STALLS OVER GA
AND A TROPICAL WAVE ROTATES NORTHWARD FROM THE BAHAMAS. PWATS
INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES BY SUNDAY. THUS INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
INTO THE 40-50% RANGE...BUT IF MODEL PERSISTENCE
CONTINUES...LIKELY POPS MAY BE NEEDED NEXT WEEKEND (60-70%). TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO FALL BACK TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO FOR HIGHS
GIVEN INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND LOWER THICKNESSES WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 80S AND MUGGY LOWS CONTINUING IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WITH TEMPO GROUPS USED FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND MVFR CIGS
THROUGH AROUND 12Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER
OUR REGION DEVELOPS NUMEROUS SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER 15Z. OUTSIDE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION
THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST NORTHWEST OF
THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. WAVES OF HEAVY SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERIODICALLY OVERSPREAD THE WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 15 MPH OUTSIDE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SEAS REMAIN IN THE 2 TO
3 FOOT RANGE. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS FOR THE MID AND LATE WEEK TIME FRAME...WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES AND LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND
SPEEDS...WITH THE DAILY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING IN THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK CONTINUES...WITH A SMALL SOUTHEASTERLY
OCEAN SWELL OF LESS THAN 2 FEET AFFECTING THE BEACHES DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  72  89  72 /  80  70  70  60
SSI  85  75  85  74 /  80  70  70  60
JAX  87  73  88  73 /  80  60  70  60
SGJ  86  75  87  73 /  80  60  60  60
GNV  87  72  88  71 /  70  50  60  50
OCF  88  72  88  72 /  70  40  60  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

NELSON/ENYEDI







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TALLAHASSEE FL

 209 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The overnight analysis shows a rather diffuse synoptic pattern in
place across the area with weak flow aloft. Deep layer moisture is
plentiful with a large area of precipitable water values over 2
inches. There still appears to a remnant weak and broad mid to upper
level circulation just east of the area as seen on VAX radar.
Convection has been expanding with this feature overnight with very
heavy rain rates noted just south of Lake City. This is similar to
what happened last night when a large area of moderate to heavy rain
eventually developed and affected portions of the southeast big
bend. In fact, the recent HRRR runs are showing a similar evolution
for the remainder of tonight and into the first half of today, and
with radar trends so far supporting this general thinking, the
official forecast bumped up PoPs to categorical across the southeast
big bend and added a mention of heavy rainfall for the first half of
today. With the heaviest rainfall currently expected to remain just
east of the forecast area, confidence is not high enough to issue a
watch at this time, although trends will have to be closely
monitored in that region. The forecast high temperatures were also
kept on the lower side of the guidance in the mid 80s given the
expected cloud cover and rain. It is possible that they could end up
even lower than that given Cross City only made it to 79 yesterday,
but did not want to go too low as it will only take a couple of
hours of sunshine to make it well up into the 80s.

Elsewhere, PoPs are also fairly high today, generally in the likely
range, with a high coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms
expected to develop given the abundant deep layer moisture in place.
Outside of the southeast big bend, more sunshine is expected though
initially with high temperatures forecast to reach the lower 90s.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

The GFS and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement, as they begin to
slowly shift the weak mid layer trough (currently centered over
north FL) eastward on Tuesday. At the surface, the weak,
quasi-stationary frontal zone across south GA & AL will gradually
dissipate. As has been the case the past several model runs, the
pressure/height pattern is forecast to be too weak for any sustained
Q-G forcing, so much of the forcing for deep moist convection will
be due to diurnal mesoscale forcing from sea breeze fronts and the
like. With ample deep layer moisture and moderate instability on
Monday, PoPs will continue to be above climo- especially in the
afternoon & evening hours (50-60%). Deep layer moisture will begin
to diminish on Tuesday, especially over our western zones, where the
PoP will only be 20%. Elsewhere, where the moisture will linger
longer, PoPs will be in the 40-50% range. Highs will be in the upper
80s to lower 90s, lows in the 70s.


.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

We expect rain chances to remain at or above climo throughout most
of the period, as the position of the Bermuda High at the Sfc will
still allow for plenty of deep layer tropical moisture to be
pumped into the region with a southerly component to the winds
below 500 mb (until next Fri. and Sat. when the next active trof
approaches), keeping PWATs in the 1.85" to 2.15" range. However,
the ridging should at least allow the convection to return towards
more of a diurnal cycle with the sea breeze circulation, and while
above climo, Pops should generally remain between 40% to 60% or
slightly below on a couple of days. Temps should also average a
bit above climo through the next 7 days, with highs generally in
the lower 90s with lows in the lower to middle 70s.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 06Z Monday] There is a chance of some MVFR to IFR
conditions across most of the TAF sites for a few hours around dawn
with plentiful low level moisture in place and a fairly high
coverage of rainfall yesterday. VFR conditions are expected to
return by mid-morning with another afternoon of scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area.

&&

.Marine...

The pressure gradient will remain weak through at least mid week,
resulting in a continuation of low winds and seas. However, there
may be a slight increase in winds and chop near the coast each
afternoon from strong heating of the land.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Over the next few days, relative humidity values will remain well
above critical thresholds with a fairly high coverage of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms. Red flag conditions are not expected.

&&

.Hydrology...

1 to 2 inches of rain (with locally higher amounts) fell across a
large portion of north FL on Saturday. Elsewhere the rain wasn`t as
concentrated, though there were isolated heavy amounts. Some rivers
have risen in recent days, but are still well below flood stage.
Although slow storm motion and high moisture content makes flooding
a possibility today, we still don`t see a concentrated area of
forcing where heavy rain would become focused for a long period of
time. Once again, the most vulnerable areas to flash flooding will
be urban areas and locations that had very heavy rain on Saturday.
River flooding appears unlikely due to the isolated nature of the
heavy rainfall threat.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   91  73  90  72  91 /  60  30  50  20  40
Panama City   89  76  88  76  90 /  60  40  50  20  30
Dothan        92  71  91  71  92 /  70  40  50  20  20
Albany        92  72  91  72  92 /  70  50  60  30  30
Valdosta      90  71  90  71  91 /  70  40  60  30  50
Cross City    87  72  88  72  90 /  80  30  60  30  50
Apalachicola  89  76  87  75  89 /  50  40  40  20  40

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 1233 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. THIS HIGH WILL LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM UPDATE...HAVE ONLY MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO SKY COVER AND
TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS
WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER THIS TERM.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT HANGING OFF THE COAST
W/AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP ALONG THE COAST. THESE SHOWERS WERE
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPED ON THE FRONT. LATEST
SREF WAS HANDLING THE SHOWERS QUITE WELL W/THE SETUP. DECIDED TO
CARRY 60% POPS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST FOR EARLY THIS MORNING AND
THEN DROP THEM OFF AS THE LOW PULLS NE AND THE FRONT PULLS FURTHER
S. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA W/CLEARING
TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. THE CLOUDS WILL PULL OUT OF
THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO POUR IN. A
SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND HRRR 3KM TO DROP S
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
MOISTURE IN THE 900-800MB LAYER ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
WHILE DOWNEAST AND THE COAST WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED CLOUDINESS.
NW WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THIS FRONT W/TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COLDER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. WE ARE TALKING UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
W/CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH DRIER AIR. NW WINDS WILL DROP OFF
TONIGHT W/DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 30S BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
DECIDED TO CARRY PATCHY FOG W/THE COOLING AND WET GROUND FROM
SATURDAY`S RAIN. TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE WILL HIT THE MID AND
UPPER 30S W/LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE ALLAGASH AND ST. JOHN VALLEY
SEEING LOWER 30S. THIS RAISES CONCERN FOR FROST BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. COLLABORATED W/GYX AND
BTV ON THIS AND THINKING IS THAT THE FOG COULD OFFSET THE EXTENT
OF THE FROST W/A HEAVY DEW DEVELOPING. PLUS, WINDS COULD ACTUALLY
STAY UP A WHILE LONGER BEFORE DECOUPLING WHICH IN TURN LIMIT THE
DURATION OF THE FROST. THEREFORE, THE DECISION WAS NOT TO ISSUE A
FROST ADVISORY W/THIS PACKAGE BUT KEEP THE MENTION OF FROST IN
THE FORECAST. DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST...AT THIS TIME APPEARS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF MAINE.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR HRLY
TEMPS/DP...WND...POP... AND SKY. NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM. A LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT INTO WRN MAINE THURS MRNG. THE GUIDANCE MOVES
THE FRONT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK FRI MRNG....UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ELONGATES ALONG THE US AND
CANADIAN BOARDER EXTENDING FRONT THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO
ATLANTIC CANADA. THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. TROUGHS OF LOWER PRESSURE WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE LOW BRINGING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO NRN AND CENTRAL
MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR W/TEMPO MVFR OR PERHAPS IFR BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING
FOR FOG DUE TO WET GROUND.

SHORT TERM: HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITE. LIGHT WINDS...COOLER TEMPS WILL
LIKELY ALLOW MORNING FOG PARTICULARLY AROUND WATER BODIES REDUCING
VISIBILITIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO 10 KTS BUT SEAS STILL RUNNING
AROUND 5 FT. THINKING IS THAT SEAS WILL DROP BACK TODAY AS NW TAKE
HOLD AND HIGH PRES BUILDS E. WINDS WILL REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/NORTON
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/NORTON







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 921 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. THIS HIGH WILL LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
920 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE. A BATCH OF CLOUDS IS SWINGING DOWN OUT OF EASTERN QUEBEC
THIS MORNING AND WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, LOTS OF
SUNSHINE WILL BE THE RULE FOR TODAY. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY
COVER AND TEMPERATURES TO MATCH CURRENT SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBSERVATION TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER THIS TERM.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT HANGING OFF THE COAST
W/AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP ALONG THE COAST. THESE SHOWERS WERE
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPED ON THE FRONT. LATEST
SREF WAS HANDLING THE SHOWERS QUITE WELL W/THE SETUP. DECIDED TO
CARRY 60% POPS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST FOR EARLY THIS MORNING AND
THEN DROP THEM OFF AS THE LOW PULLS NE AND THE FRONT PULLS FURTHER
S. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA W/CLEARING
TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. THE CLOUDS WILL PULL OUT OF
THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO POUR IN. A
SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND HRRR 3KM TO DROP S
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
MOISTURE IN THE 900-800MB LAYER ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
WHILE DOWNEAST AND THE COAST WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED CLOUDINESS.
NW WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THIS FRONT W/TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COLDER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. WE ARE TALKING UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
W/CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH DRIER AIR. NW WINDS WILL DROP OFF
TONIGHT W/DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 30S BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
DECIDED TO CARRY PATCHY FOG W/THE COOLING AND WET GROUND FROM
SATURDAY`S RAIN. TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE WILL HIT THE MID AND
UPPER 30S W/LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE ALLAGASH AND ST. JOHN VALLEY
SEEING LOWER 30S. THIS RAISES CONCERN FOR FROST BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. COLLABORATED W/GYX AND
BTV ON THIS AND THINKING IS THAT THE FOG COULD OFFSET THE EXTENT
OF THE FROST W/A HEAVY DEW DEVELOPING. PLUS, WINDS COULD ACTUALLY
STAY UP A WHILE LONGER BEFORE DECOUPLING WHICH IN TURN LIMIT THE
DURATION OF THE FROST. THEREFORE, THE DECISION WAS NOT TO ISSUE A
FROST ADVISORY W/THIS PACKAGE BUT KEEP THE MENTION OF FROST IN
THE FORECAST. DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST...AT THIS TIME APPEARS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF MAINE.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR HRLY
TEMPS/DP...WND...POP... AND SKY. NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM. A LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT INTO WRN MAINE THURS MRNG. THE GUIDANCE MOVES
THE FRONT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK FRI MRNG....UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ELONGATES ALONG THE US AND
CANADIAN BOARDER EXTENDING FRONT THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO
ATLANTIC CANADA. THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. TROUGHS OF LOWER PRESSURE WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE LOW BRINGING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO NRN AND CENTRAL
MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR W/TEMPO MVFR OR PERHAPS IFR BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING
FOR FOG DUE TO WET GROUND.

SHORT TERM: HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITE. LIGHT WINDS...COOLER TEMPS WILL
LIKELY ALLOW MORNING FOG PARTICULARLY AROUND WATER BODIES REDUCING
VISIBILITIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO 10 KTS BUT SEAS STILL RUNNING
AROUND 5 FT. THINKING IS THAT SEAS WILL DROP BACK TODAY AS NW TAKE
HOLD AND HIGH PRES BUILDS E. WINDS WILL REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/NORTON
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/NORTON






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 648 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. THIS HIGH WILL LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
645 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED HRLY TEMPERATURES PER THE LATEST OBS
SHOWING SOME MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR NW AND LOW LYING
AREAS. CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON
AND MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SHOW MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THIS
AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER THIS TERM.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT HANGING OFF THE COAST
W/AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP ALONG THE COAST. THESE SHOWERS WERE
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPED ON THE FRONT. LATEST
SREF WAS HANDLING THE SHOWERS QUITE WELL W/THE SETUP. DECIDED TO
CARRY 60% POPS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST FOR EARLY THIS MORNING AND
THEN DROP THEM OFF AS THE LOW PULLS NE AND THE FRONT PULLS FURTHER
S. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA W/CLEARING
TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. THE CLOUDS WILL PULL OUT OF
THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO POUR IN. A
SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND HRRR 3KM TO DROP S
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
MOISTURE IN THE 900-800MB LAYER ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
WHILE DOWNEAST AND THE COAST WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED CLOUDINESS.
NW WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THIS FRONT W/TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COLDER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. WE ARE TALKING UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
W/CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH DRIER AIR. NW WINDS WILL DROP OFF
TONIGHT W/DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 30S BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
DECIDED TO CARRY PATCHY FOG W/THE COOLING AND WET GROUND FROM
SATURDAY`S RAIN. TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE WILL HIT THE MID AND
UPPER 30S W/LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE ALLAGASH AND ST. JOHN VALLEY
SEEING LOWER 30S. THIS RAISES CONCERN FOR FROST BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. COLLABORATED W/GYX AND
BTV ON THIS AND THINKING IS THAT THE FOG COULD OFFSET THE EXTENT
OF THE FROST W/A HEAVY DEW DEVELOPING. PLUS, WINDS COULD ACTUALLY
STAY UP A WHILE LONGER BEFORE DECOUPLING WHICH IN TURN LIMIT THE
DURATION OF THE FROST. THEREFORE, THE DECISION WAS NOT TO ISSUE A
FROST ADVISORY W/THIS PACKAGE BUT KEEP THE MENTION OF FROST IN
THE FORECAST. DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST...AT THIS TIME APPEARS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF MAINE.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR HRLY
TEMPS/DP...WND...POP... AND SKY. NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM. A LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT INTO WRN MAINE THURS MRNG. THE GUIDANCE MOVES
THE FRONT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK FRI MRNG....UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ELONGATES ALONG THE US AND
CANADIAN BOARDER EXTENDING FRONT THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO
ATLANTIC CANADA. THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. TROUGHS OF LOWER PRESSURE WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE LOW BRINGING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO NRN AND CENTRAL
MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR W/TEMPO MVFR OR PERHAPS IFR BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING
FOR FOG DUE TO WET GROUND.

SHORT TERM: HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITE. LIGHT WINDS...COOLER TEMPS WILL
LIKELY ALLOW MORNING FOG PARTICULARLY AROUND WATER BODIES REDUCING
VISIBILITIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO 10 KTS BUT SEAS STILL RUNNING
AROUND 5 FT. THINKING IS THAT SEAS WILL DROP BACK TODAY AS NW TAKE
HOLD AND HIGH PRES BUILDS E. WINDS WILL REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...HEWITT/NORTON
MARINE...HEWITT/NORTON






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 409 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. THIS HIGH WILL LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER THIS TERM.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT HANGING OFF THE COAST
W/AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP ALONG THE COAST. THESE SHOWERS WERE
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPED ON THE FRONT. LATEST
SREF WAS HANDLING THE SHOWERS QUITE WELL W/THE SETUP. DECIDED TO
CARRY 60% POPS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST FOR EARLY THIS MORNING AND
THEN DROP THEM OFF AS THE LOW PULLS NE AND THE FRONT PULLS FURTHER
S. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA W/CLEARING
TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. THE CLOUDS WILL PULL OUT OF
THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO POUR IN. A
SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND HRRR 3KM TO DROP S
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
MOISTURE IN THE 900-800MB LAYER ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
WHILE DOWNEAST AND THE COAST WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED CLOUDINESS.
NW WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THIS FRONT W/TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COLDER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. WE ARE TALKING UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
W/CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH DRIER AIR. NW WINDS WILL DROP OFF
TONIGHT W/DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 30S BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
DECIDED TO CARRY PATCHY FOG W/THE COOLING AND WET GROUND FROM
SATURDAY`S RAIN. TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE WILL HIT THE MID AND
UPPER 30S W/LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE ALLAGASH AND ST. JOHN VALLEY
SEEING LOWER 30S. THIS RAISES CONCERN FOR FROST BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. COLLABORATED W/GYX AND
BTV ON THIS AND THINKING IS THAT THE FOG COULD OFFSET THE EXTENT
OF THE FROST W/A HEAVY DEW DEVELOPING. PLUS, WINDS COULD ACTUALLY
STAY UP A WHILE LONGER BEFORE DECOUPLING WHICH IN TURN LIMIT THE
DURATION OF THE FROST. THEREFORE, THE DECISION WAS NOT TO ISSUE A
FROST ADVISORY W/THIS PACKAGE BUT KEEP THE MENTION OF FROST IN
THE FORECAST. DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST...AT THIS TIME APPEARS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF MAINE.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR HRLY
TEMPS/DP...WND...POP... AND SKY. NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT
OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM. A LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT INTO WRN MAINE THURS MRNG. THE GUIDANCE MOVES
THE FRONT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK FRI MRNG....UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ELONGATES ALONG THE US AND
CANADIAN BOARDER EXTENDING FRONT THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO
ATLANTIC CANADA. THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. TROUGHS OF LOWER PRESSURE WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE LOW BRINGING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO NRN AND CENTRAL
MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR W/TEMPO MVFR OR PERHAPS IFR BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING
FOR FOG DUE TO WET GROUND.

SHORT TERM: HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITE. LIGHT WINDS...COOLER TEMPS WILL
LIKELY ALLOW MORNING FOG PARTICULARLY AROUND WATER BODIES REDUCING
VISIBILITIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO 10 KTS BUT SEAS STILL RUNNING
AROUND 5 FT. THINKING IS THAT SEAS WILL DROP BACK TODAY AS NW TAKE
HOLD AND HIGH PRES BUILDS E. WINDS WILL REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...HEWITT/NORTON
MARINE...HEWITT/NORTON








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

 350 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
COASTS AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND IT WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THAT BOUNDARY FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
COOLER...NOTICEABLY DRIER WX THIS AFTN. CDFNT HAS SETTLED WELL S
OF THE RGN...AND NNE WNDS (A LITTLE BIT GUSTY RIGHT AT THE CST)
PREVAIL OVR THE FA AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS INTO NEW ENG. OTHER THAN
AN ISOLD SHRA INVOF SE VA/NE NC...LARGE AREA OF RA CONFINED TO
JUST S OF THE ALBEMARLE SND MID AFTN. OTRW...PARTLY CLOUDY
N...MOSTLY CLOUDY S THROUGH THIS EVE.

SFC LO PRES WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP INVOF INTERIOR SE CONUS LT
TNGT...AND BACKING OF MID LVL FLO WILL START TO PULL MOISTURE BACK
N. HAVE TRENDED A BIT SLOWER THAN THE MDLS W/ THE RETURN OF THE
MOISTURE LT TNGT. BY EARLY MON MRNG...WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(60-80%) FAR SE VA/NE NC...TO 15-30% POPS ACRS NNW PORTIONS.

LO TEMPS IN THE L/M60S N...TO THE U60S TO ARND 70F FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN FOR THE FA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. LO
PRES CONTG TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SE CONUS CST MON...THEN TRACKS
SLOLY TO THE NE ALG THE NC CSTL PLAIN AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE VA
CAPES LT TUE. THE COMBINATION OF INCRSG LO LVL MOISTURE FM THE
ATLC AND STRONG LIFT (ALONG/JUST N OF THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID LVL S/W)...WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVR THE
AREA. HIGHEST POPS/CHC FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL CONT TO BE OVR
ERN/SERN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME. POPS DIMINISHING FM W TO E
BEGINNING LT TUE...AS THE LO MOVES OFF THE CST. WILL NOT RULE OUT
ISOLD THUNDER ESE AREAS...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FCST ATTM.

NE WNDS WILL BE GUSTY (MNLY ERN HALF OF FA) THROUGH THE TUE...TO
POSSIBLY 30-35 MPH ON THE EASTERN SHORE. HI TEMPS MON AND TUE
RANGING THROUGH THE 70S. LO TEMPS MON NGT MNLY FM 65 TO 70F.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT W/ DCRSG CLDNS WED. RETURN OF SUNSHINE XPCD TO
BOOST HI TEMPS BY CLOSER TO CLIMO NORMALS (ARND 80F AT THE
CST...M80S INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE
LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND.

UPPER FLOW WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL CONUS...DOWNSTREAM OF AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER THE WRN
PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA. OVER THE LOCAL AREA...A LEADING
SHORTWAVE WILL FLATTEN THE UPPER FLOW BRIEFLY WEDS BEFORE SWLY
FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH THURS-
FRI. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND PARENT LOW WILL REACH THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY LATE WEDS INTO WEDS NIGHT. MEANWHILE...WEDGE OVER
THE LOCAL AREA BREAKS DOWN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WEDS. MID-LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE STATES WILL RIDGE NEWD INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AS SFC HIGH BREAKS DOWN. SUBSIDENCE VISIBLE IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY AND THETA-E ADVECTION
WILL LIKELY INHIBIT PRECIP WEDS. WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH WEDS
NIGHT AS SWLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA THURS...WHICH COMBINED WITH THETA-E
ADVECTION/INSTABILITY MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING OUTSIDE
OF SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES IN SWLY FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. BEST COVERAGE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA AND ALONG THE COAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DROPPING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURS NIGHT INTO
FRI. THE UPPER WAVE DE-AMPLIFIES...WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAINING
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. DESPITE LACK OF DYNAMICS...WILL INCREASE
POPS TO CHANCE AS A WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS
ANTICIPATED. OF COURSE...TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL IMPACT WHERE THE
BEST COVERAGE WILL BE ON FRIDAY AND HOW WARM TEMPS GET. EXPECT THE
FRONT TO CLEAR THE LOCAL AREA FRI NIGHT AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. BEST CAA ARRIVES FRI NIGHT-SAT
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE OH VALLEY. THE RESULT WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WILL HOLD
ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SE TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER
ECMWF AND PROXIMITY TO FRONT/MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS STALLED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AKQ FORECAST AREA.
MOIST NE FLOW WILL HELP LOCK IN THE MVFR CEILINGS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING NE
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL OVERSPREAD RAIN S TO N STARTING
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR PRECIP WITH PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS MONDAY. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE CREATING 20KT WIND GUSTS AT KECG/KORF/KPHF/KSBY.


OUTLOOK...EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
WED AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES OF THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SFC COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS MORNING, WITH SOME SCT SHRAS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS ALONG
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. FLOW IS E-NE ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS, WITH SW
FLOW FARTHER SOUTH ALONG CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND THE
LOWER CHES BAY. FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A BRIEF SURGE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
BETTER CAA ARRIVES. LOOKING AT OBS IN THE UPPER CHES BAY, NOTING
GUSTS TO 18-22 KT OVER UPPER BAY, GENERALLY IN LINE WITH HRRR
DEPICTION. HRRR AND DOWNSCALE NAM DEPICTING A SHORT LIVED N-NE SURGE
WITH NE WINDS GUSTING TO MARGINAL/LOW END SCA IN THE BAY.
ACCORDINGLY, HV HOISTED A RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION SCA THROUGH
NOON.

FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. E-NELY FLOW CONTINUES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING RIDGED OVER THE
WATERS THRU WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT AND LIFT ALONG THE SE COAST AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
MON-WED. THIS WILL SERVE TO STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE NRN WATERS...RESULTING IN NELY WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE NRN
COASTAL WATERS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT INTO MON. SEAS WILL
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 4-6 FT NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. HV GONE
AHEAD WITH AN SCA OVER ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF PARRAMORE
ISLAND FROM 6A MON-6A TUES. WINDS/SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED MON/MON NGT
BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. WEDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
WEDS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FLOW BECOMES SLY WED
NIGHT INTO THURS AND SWLY THURS AND FRI IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT, WHICH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT INTO FRI.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEVELOPING NE FLOW 15-20KT WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, AND WILL RESULT IN BUILDING TIDAL
ANOMALIES APPROACHING 1 TO 1.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL BY LATER MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. NUISANCE TO LOW END MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING
HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ630>632-634-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

 348 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
COASTS AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND IT WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THAT BOUNDARY FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
COOLER...NOTICEABLY DRIER WX THIS AFTN. CDFNT HAS SETTLED WELL S
OF THE RGN...AND NNE WNDS (A LITTLE BIT GUSTY RIGHT AT THE CST)
PREVAIL OVR THE FA AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS INTO NEW ENG. OTHER THAN
AN ISOLD SHRA INVOF SE VA/NE NC...LARGE AREA OF RA CONFINED TO
JUST S OF THE ALBEMARLE SND MID AFTN. OTRW...PARTLY CLOUDY
N...MOSTLY CLOUDY S THROUGH THIS EVE.

SFC LO PRES WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP INVOF INTERIOR SE CONUS LT
TNGT...AND BACKING OF MID LVL FLO WILL START TO PULL MOISTURE BACK
N. HAVE TRENDED A BIT SLOWER THAN THE MDLS W/ THE RETURN OF THE
MOISTURE LT TNGT. BY EARLY MON MRNG...WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(60-80%) FAR SE VA/NE NC...TO 15-30% POPS ACRS NNW PORTIONS.

LO TEMPS IN THE L/M60S N...TO THE U60S TO ARND 70F FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN FOR THE FA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. LO
PRES CONTG TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SE CONUS CST MON...THEN TRACKS
SLOLY TO THE NE ALG THE NC CSTL PLAIN AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE VA
CAPES LT TUE. THE COMBINATION OF INCRSG LO LVL MOISTURE FM THE
ATLC AND STRONG LIFT (ALONG/JUST N OF THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID LVL S/W)...WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVR THE
AREA. HIGHEST POPS/CHC FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL CONT TO BE OVR
ERN/SERN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME. POPS DIMINISHING FM W TO E
BEGINNING LT TUE...AS THE LO MOVES OFF THE CST. WILL NOT RULE OUT
ISOLD THUNDER ESE AREAS...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FCST ATTM.

NE WNDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THE TUE...TO POSSSIBLY 30-35 MPH AT
THE CST. HI TEMPS MON AND TUE RANGING THROUGH THE 70S. LO TEMPS
MON NGT MNLY FM 65 TO 70F.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT W/ DCRSG CLDNS WED. RETURN OF SUNSHINE XPCD TO
BOOST HI TEMPS BY CLOSER TO CLIMO NORMALS (ARND 80F AT THE
CST...M80S INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE
LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND.

UPPER FLOW WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL CONUS...DOWNSTREAM OF AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER THE WRN
PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA. OVER THE LOCAL AREA...A LEADING
SHORTWAVE WILL FLATTEN THE UPPER FLOW BRIEFLY WEDS BEFORE SWLY
FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH THURS-
FRI. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND PARENT LOW WILL REACH THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY LATE WEDS INTO WEDS NIGHT. MEANWHILE...WEDGE OVER
THE LOCAL AREA BREAKS DOWN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WEDS. MID-LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE STATES WILL RIDGE NEWD INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AS SFC HIGH BREAKS DOWN. SUBSIDENCE VISIBLE IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY AND THETA-E ADVECTION
WILL LIKELY INHIBIT PRECIP WEDS. WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH WEDS
NIGHT AS SWLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA THURS...WHICH COMBINED WITH THETA-E
ADVECTION/INSTABILITY MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING OUTSIDE
OF SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES IN SWLY FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. BEST COVERAGE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA AND ALONG THE COAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DROPPING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURS NIGHT INTO
FRI. THE UPPER WAVE DE-AMPLIFIES...WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAINING
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. DESPITE LACK OF DYNAMICS...WILL INCREASE
POPS TO CHANCE AS A WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS
ANTICIPATED. OF COURSE...TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL IMPACT WHERE THE
BEST COVERAGE WILL BE ON FRIDAY AND HOW WARM TEMPS GET. EXPECT THE
FRONT TO CLEAR THE LOCAL AREA FRI NIGHT AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. BEST CAA ARRIVES FRI NIGHT-SAT
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE OH VALLEY. THE RESULT WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WILL HOLD
ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SE TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER
ECMWF AND PROXIMITY TO FRONT/MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS STALLED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AKQ FORECAST AREA.
MOIST NE FLOW WILL HELP LOCK IN THE MVFR CEILINGS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING NE
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL OVERSPREAD RAIN S TO N STARTING
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR PRECIP WITH PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS MONDAY. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE CREATING 20KT WIND GUSTS AT KECG/KORF/KPHF/KSBY.


OUTLOOK...EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
WED AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES OF THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SFC COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS MORNING, WITH SOME SCT SHRAS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS ALONG
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. FLOW IS E-NE ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS, WITH SW
FLOW FARTHER SOUTH ALONG CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND THE
LOWER CHES BAY. FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A BRIEF SURGE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
BETTER CAA ARRIVES. LOOKING AT OBS IN THE UPPER CHES BAY, NOTING
GUSTS TO 18-22 KT OVER UPPER BAY, GENERALLY IN LINE WITH HRRR
DEPICTION. HRRR AND DOWNSCALE NAM DEPICTING A SHORT LIVED N-NE SURGE
WITH NE WINDS GUSTING TO MARGINAL/LOW END SCA IN THE BAY.
ACCORDINGLY, HV HOISTED A RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION SCA THROUGH
NOON.

FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. E-NELY FLOW CONTINUES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING RIDGED OVER THE
WATERS THRU WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT AND LIFT ALONG THE SE COAST AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
MON-WED. THIS WILL SERVE TO STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE NRN WATERS...RESULTING IN NELY WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE NRN
COASTAL WATERS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT INTO MON. SEAS WILL
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 4-6 FT NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. HV GONE
AHEAD WITH AN SCA OVER ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF PARRAMORE
ISLAND FROM 6A MON-6A TUES. WINDS/SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED MON/MON NGT
BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. WEDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
WEDS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FLOW BECOMES SLY WED
NIGHT INTO THURS AND SWLY THURS AND FRI IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT, WHICH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT INTO FRI.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEVELOPING NE FLOW 15-20KT WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, AND WILL RESULT IN BUILDING TIDAL
ANOMALIES APPROACHING 1 TO 1.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL BY LATER MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. NUISANCE TO LOW END MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING
HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ630>632-634-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...











AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

 230 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
COASTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CDFNT HAS SLIPPED S OF THE FA AS OF LT MRNG...W/ NNE WNDS (GUSTY
AT TIMES AT THE CST) CONTG TO USER IN COOLER/DRIER AIR FM THE N
AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS TOWARDS NEW ENG. LOWERED POPS FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY...TO 30-40% FAR SE VA/NE NC...THEN TAPER OFF TO AOB 10%
ACRS FAR NNW AREAS. HI TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODELS FOR TNGT THRU
TUE NGT...RESULTING IN AN UNSETTLED RATHER WET PATTERN FOR THE
REGION. LO PRES DEVELOPING ALNG THE SE CST TNGT INTO MON...WILL
LIFT NE ALNG THE STALLED FRNTL BOUNDARY AND OFF THE VA/NC CST MON
AFTN THRU TUE NGT. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LO LVL MOISTURE
FM THE ATLC AND STRNG LIFT (ALNG/JUST N OF THE BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LO)...WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVR THE
AREA...ESPLY LATER TNGT INTO TUE AFTN. HIGHEST POPS/CHC FOR
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE OVR ERN/SERN CNTIES DURING THIS TIME.
POPS WILL DIMINISH FM W TO E TUE AFTN THRU TUE NGT...AS THE LO
MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA. ISLTD THUNDER POSSIBLE ESE AREAS.

LO TEMPS TNGT RANGING THRU THE 60S TO NEAR 70. HI TEMPS ON MON AND
TUE IN THE MID 70S TO ARND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE
LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND.

UPPER FLOW WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL CONUS...DOWNSTREAM OF AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER THE WRN
PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA. OVER THE LOCAL AREA...A LEADING
SHORTWAVE WILL FLATTEN THE UPPER FLOW BRIEFLY WEDS BEFORE SWLY
FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH THURS-
FRI. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND PARENT LOW WILL REACH THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY LATE WEDS INTO WEDS NIGHT. MEANWHILE...WEDGE OVER
THE LOCAL AREA BREAKS DOWN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WEDS. MID-LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE STATES WILL RIDGE NEWD INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AS SFC HIGH BREAKS DOWN. SUBSIDENCE VISIBLE IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY AND THETA-E ADVECTION
WILL LIKELY INHIBIT PRECIP WEDS. WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH WEDS
NIGHT AS SWLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA THURS...WHICH COMBINED WITH THETA-E
ADVECTION/INSTABILITY MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING OUTSIDE
OF SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES IN SWLY FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. BEST COVERAGE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA AND ALONG THE COAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DROPPING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURS NIGHT INTO
FRI. THE UPPER WAVE DE-AMPLIFIES...WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAINING
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. DESPITE LACK OF DYNAMICS...WILL INCREASE
POPS TO CHANCE AS A WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS
ANTICIPATED. OF COURSE...TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL IMPACT WHERE THE
BEST COVERAGE WILL BE ON FRIDAY AND HOW WARM TEMPS GET. EXPECT THE
FRONT TO CLEAR THE LOCAL AREA FRI NIGHT AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. BEST CAA ARRIVES FRI NIGHT-SAT
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE OH VALLEY. THE RESULT WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WILL HOLD
ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SE TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER
ECMWF AND PROXIMITY TO FRONT/MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS STALLED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AKQ FORECAST AREA.
MOIST NE FLOW WILL HELP LOCK IN THE MVFR CEILINGS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING NE
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL OVERSPREAD RAIN S TO N STARTING
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR PRECIP WITH PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS MONDAY. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE CREATING 20KT WIND GUSTS AT KECG/KORF/KPHF/KSBY.


OUTLOOK...EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
WED AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES OF THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SFC COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS MORNING, WITH SOME SCT SHRAS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS ALONG
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. FLOW IS E-NE ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS, WITH SW
FLOW FARTHER SOUTH ALONG CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND THE
LOWER CHES BAY. FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A BRIEF SURGE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
BETTER CAA ARRIVES. LOOKING AT OBS IN THE UPPER CHES BAY, NOTING
GUSTS TO 18-22 KT OVER UPPER BAY, GENERALLY IN LINE WITH HRRR
DEPICTION. HRRR AND DOWNSCALE NAM DEPICTING A SHORT LIVED N-NE SURGE
WITH NE WINDS GUSTING TO MARGINAL/LOW END SCA IN THE BAY.
ACCORDINGLY, HV HOISTED A RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION SCA THROUGH
NOON.

FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. E-NELY FLOW CONTINUES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING RIDGED OVER THE
WATERS THRU WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT AND LIFT ALONG THE SE COAST AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
MON-WED. THIS WILL SERVE TO STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE NRN WATERS...RESULTING IN NELY WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE NRN
COASTAL WATERS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT INTO MON. SEAS WILL
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 4-6 FT NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. HV GONE
AHEAD WITH AN SCA OVER ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF PARRAMORE
ISLAND FROM 6A MON-6A TUES. WINDS/SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED MON/MON NGT
BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. WEDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
WEDS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FLOW BECOMES SLY WED
NIGHT INTO THURS AND SWLY THURS AND FRI IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT, WHICH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT INTO FRI.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEVELOPING NE FLOW 15-20KT WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, AND WILL RESULT IN BUILDING TIDAL
ANOMALIES APPROACHING 1 TO 1.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL BY LATER MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. NUISANCE TO LOW END MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING
HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

 1152 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
COASTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CDFNT HAS SLIPPED S OF THE FA AS OF LT MRNG...W/ NNE WNDS (GUSTY
AT TIMES AT THE CST) CONTG TO USER IN COOLER/DRIER AIR FM THE N
AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS TOWARDS NEW ENG. LOWERED POPS FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY...TO 30-40% FAR SE VA/NE NC...THEN TAPER OFF TO AOB 10%
ACRS FAR NNW AREAS. HI TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODELS FOR TNGT THRU
TUE NGT...RESULTING IN AN UNSETTLED RATHER WET PATTERN FOR THE
REGION. LO PRES DEVELOPING ALNG THE SE CST TNGT INTO MON...WILL
LIFT NE ALNG THE STALLED FRNTL BOUNDARY AND OFF THE VA/NC CST MON
AFTN THRU TUE NGT. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LO LVL MOISTURE
FM THE ATLC AND STRNG LIFT (ALNG/JUST N OF THE BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LO)...WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVR THE
AREA...ESPLY LATER TNGT INTO TUE AFTN. HIGHEST POPS/CHC FOR
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE OVR ERN/SERN CNTIES DURING THIS TIME.
POPS WILL DIMINISH FM W TO E TUE AFTN THRU TUE NGT...AS THE LO
MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA. ISLTD THUNDER POSSIBLE ESE AREAS.

LO TEMPS TNGT RANGING THRU THE 60S TO NEAR 70. HI TEMPS ON MON AND
TUE IN THE MID 70S TO ARND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE
LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND.

UPPER FLOW WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL CONUS...DOWNSTREAM OF AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER THE WRN
PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA. OVER THE LOCAL AREA...A LEADING
SHORTWAVE WILL FLATTEN THE UPPER FLOW BRIEFLY WEDS BEFORE SWLY
FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH THURS-
FRI. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND PARENT LOW WILL REACH THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY LATE WEDS INTO WEDS NIGHT. MEANWHILE...WEDGE OVER
THE LOCAL AREA BREAKS DOWN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WEDS. MID-LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE STATES WILL RIDGE NEWD INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AS SFC HIGH BREAKS DOWN. SUBSIDENCE VISIBLE IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY AND THETA-E ADVECTION
WILL LIKELY INHIBIT PRECIP WEDS. WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH WEDS
NIGHT AS SWLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA THURS...WHICH COMBINED WITH THETA-E
ADVECTION/INSTABILITY MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING OUTSIDE
OF SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES IN SWLY FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. BEST COVERAGE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA AND ALONG THE COAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DROPPING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURS NIGHT INTO
FRI. THE UPPER WAVE DE-AMPLIFIES...WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAINING
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. DESPITE LACK OF DYNAMICS...WILL INCREASE
POPS TO CHANCE AS A WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS
ANTICIPATED. OF COURSE...TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL IMPACT WHERE THE
BEST COVERAGE WILL BE ON FRIDAY AND HOW WARM TEMPS GET. EXPECT THE
FRONT TO CLEAR THE LOCAL AREA FRI NIGHT AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. BEST CAA ARRIVES FRI NIGHT-SAT
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE OH VALLEY. THE RESULT WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WILL HOLD
ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SE TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER
ECMWF AND PROXIMITY TO FRONT/MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH ACRS SOUTHERN
TERMINALS THROUGH MID-MORNING.

MVFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. EXPECT RETURN TO VFR BY
MIDDAY AT RIC BUT ELSEWHERE AT SBY AND AT COASTAL TERMINALS, KEPT
LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOME VCSH WORDING FOR
THE AFTN. NE WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS AT ORF AND ECG AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN
THAT AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 22Z,
WITH BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AFTER THIS TIME THROUGH THE
EVENING AT ECG/PHF/ORF.

OUTLOOK...FRONT BECOMES STALLED TO OUR SE, AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS WL PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR PSBL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AT ORF AND ECG. SHOWERS WILL RE-DEVELOP MONDAY AFTN THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY, WITH ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY AT COASTAL TERMINALS. DRIER WEATHER AND A RETURN TO VFR
CONDS ARE FORECAST LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SFC COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS MORNING, WITH SOME SCT SHRAS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS ALONG
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. FLOW IS E-NE ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS, WITH SW
FLOW FARTHER SOUTH ALONG CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND THE
LOWER CHES BAY. FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A BRIEF SURGE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
BETTER CAA ARRIVES. LOOKING AT OBS IN THE UPPER CHES BAY, NOTING
GUSTS TO 18-22 KT OVER UPPER BAY, GENERALLY IN LINE WITH HRRR
DEPICTION. HRRR AND DOWNSCALE NAM DEPICTING A SHORT LIVED N-NE SURGE
WITH NE WINDS GUSTING TO MARGINAL/LOW END SCA IN THE BAY.
ACCORDINGLY, HV HOISTED A RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION SCA THROUGH
NOON.

FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. E-NELY FLOW CONTINUES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING RIDGED OVER THE
WATERS THRU WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT AND LIFT ALONG THE SE COAST AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
MON-WED. THIS WILL SERVE TO STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE NRN WATERS...RESULTING IN NELY WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE NRN
COASTAL WATERS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT INTO MON. SEAS WILL
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 4-6 FT NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. HV GONE
AHEAD WITH AN SCA OVER ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF PARRAMORE
ISLAND FROM 6A MON-6A TUES. WINDS/SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED MON/MON NGT
BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. WEDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
WEDS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FLOW BECOMES SLY WED
NIGHT INTO THURS AND SWLY THURS AND FRI IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT, WHICH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT INTO FRI.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEVELOPING NE FLOW 15-20KT WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, AND WILL RESULT IN BUILDING TIDAL
ANOMALIES APPROACHING 1 TO 1.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL BY LATER MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. NUISANCE TO LOW END MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING
HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

 1122 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACRS THE REGION THIS MORNG INTO THIS
AFTN...THEN STALL ALONG THE SE AND MID ATLC CSTS LATER THIS AFTN
THRU TUE NGT...AS HI PRES BLDS FM THE OH VLY/LWR GRT LKS ENE INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. DRIER AIR WILL TRY TO NUDGE INTO NNW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG...RESULTING IN THE
HIGHEST POPS (50-70%) SHIFTING INTO SRN/SE CNTIES. GENERALLY MSTLY
CLDY WITH POPS 15-25%. HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 70S N TO
THE LWR 80S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODELS FOR TNGT THRU
TUE NGT...RESULTING IN AN UNSETTLED RATHER WET PATTERN FOR THE
REGION. LO PRES DEVELOPING ALNG THE SE CST TNGT INTO MON...WILL
LIFT NE ALNG THE STALLED FRNTL BOUNDARY AND OFF THE VA/NC CST MON
AFTN THRU TUE NGT. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LO LVL MOISTURE
FM THE ATLC AND STRNG LIFT (ALNG/JUST N OF THE BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LO)...WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVR THE
AREA...ESPLY LATER TNGT INTO TUE AFTN. HIGHEST POPS/CHC FOR
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE OVR ERN/SERN CNTIES DURING THIS TIME.
POPS WILL DIMINISH FM W TO E TUE AFTN THRU TUE NGT...AS THE LO
MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA. ISLTD THUNDER POSSIBLE ESE AREAS.

LO TEMPS TNGT RANGING THRU THE 60S TO NEAR 70. HI TEMPS ON MON AND
TUE IN THE MID 70S TO ARND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE
LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND.

UPPER FLOW WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL CONUS...DOWNSTREAM OF AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER THE WRN
PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA. OVER THE LOCAL AREA...A LEADING
SHORTWAVE WILL FLATTEN THE UPPER FLOW BRIEFLY WEDS BEFORE SWLY
FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH THURS-
FRI. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND PARENT LOW WILL REACH THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY LATE WEDS INTO WEDS NIGHT. MEANWHILE...WEDGE OVER
THE LOCAL AREA BREAKS DOWN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WEDS. MID-LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE STATES WILL RIDGE NEWD INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AS SFC HIGH BREAKS DOWN. SUBSIDENCE VISIBLE IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY AND THETA-E ADVECTION
WILL LIKELY INHIBIT PRECIP WEDS. WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH WEDS
NIGHT AS SWLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA THURS...WHICH COMBINED WITH THETA-E
ADVECTION/INSTABILITY MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING OUTSIDE
OF SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES IN SWLY FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. BEST COVERAGE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA AND ALONG THE COAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DROPPING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURS NIGHT INTO
FRI. THE UPPER WAVE DE-AMPLIFIES...WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAINING
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. DESPITE LACK OF DYNAMICS...WILL INCREASE
POPS TO CHANCE AS A WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS
ANTICIPATED. OF COURSE...TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL IMPACT WHERE THE
BEST COVERAGE WILL BE ON FRIDAY AND HOW WARM TEMPS GET. EXPECT THE
FRONT TO CLEAR THE LOCAL AREA FRI NIGHT AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. BEST CAA ARRIVES FRI NIGHT-SAT
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE OH VALLEY. THE RESULT WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WILL HOLD
ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SE TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER
ECMWF AND PROXIMITY TO FRONT/MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH ACRS SOUTHERN
TERMINALS THROUGH MID-MORNING.

MVFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. EXPECT RETURN TO VFR BY
MIDDAY AT RIC BUT ELSEWHERE AT SBY AND AT COASTAL TERMINALS, KEPT
LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOME VCSH WORDING FOR
THE AFTN. NE WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS AT ORF AND ECG AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN
THAT AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 22Z,
WITH BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AFTER THIS TIME THROUGH THE
EVENING AT ECG/PHF/ORF.

OUTLOOK...FRONT BECOMES STALLED TO OUR SE, AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS WL PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR PSBL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AT ORF AND ECG. SHOWERS WILL RE-DEVELOP MONDAY AFTN THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY, WITH ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY AT COASTAL TERMINALS. DRIER WEATHER AND A RETURN TO VFR
CONDS ARE FORECAST LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SFC COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS MORNING, WITH SOME SCT SHRAS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS ALONG
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. FLOW IS E-NE ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS, WITH SW
FLOW FARTHER SOUTH ALONG CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND THE
LOWER CHES BAY. FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A BRIEF SURGE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
BETTER CAA ARRIVES. LOOKING AT OBS IN THE UPPER CHES BAY, NOTING
GUSTS TO 18-22 KT OVER UPPER BAY, GENERALLY IN LINE WITH HRRR
DEPICTION. HRRR AND DOWNSCALE NAM DEPICTING A SHORT LIVED N-NE SURGE
WITH NE WINDS GUSTING TO MARGINAL/LOW END SCA IN THE BAY.
ACCORDINGLY, HV HOISTED A RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION SCA THROUGH
NOON.

FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. E-NELY FLOW CONTINUES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING RIDGED OVER THE
WATERS THRU WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT AND LIFT ALONG THE SE COAST AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
MON-WED. THIS WILL SERVE TO STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE NRN WATERS...RESULTING IN NELY WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE NRN
COASTAL WATERS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT INTO MON. SEAS WILL
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 4-6 FT NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. HV GONE
AHEAD WITH AN SCA OVER ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF PARRAMORE
ISLAND FROM 6A MON-6A TUES. WINDS/SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED MON/MON NGT
BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. WEDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
WEDS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FLOW BECOMES SLY WED
NIGHT INTO THURS AND SWLY THURS AND FRI IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT, WHICH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT INTO FRI.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEVELOPING NE FLOW 15-20KT WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, AND WILL RESULT IN BUILDING TIDAL
ANOMALIES APPROACHING 1 TO 1.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL BY LATER MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. NUISANCE TO LOW END MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING
HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

 741 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACRS THE REGION THIS MORNG INTO THIS
AFTN...THEN STALL ALONG THE SE AND MID ATLC CSTS LATER THIS AFTN
THRU TUE NGT...AS HI PRES BLDS FM THE OH VLY/LWR GRT LKS ENE INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. DRIER AIR WILL TRY TO NUDGE INTO NNW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG...RESULTING IN THE
HIGHEST POPS (50-70%) SHIFTING INTO SRN/SE CNTIES. GENERALLY MSTLY
CLDY WITH POPS 15-25%. HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 70S N TO
THE LWR 80S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODELS FOR TNGT THRU
TUE NGT...RESULTING IN AN UNSETTLED RATHER WET PATTERN FOR THE
REGION. LO PRES DEVELOPING ALNG THE SE CST TNGT INTO MON...WILL
LIFT NE ALNG THE STALLED FRNTL BOUNDARY AND OFF THE VA/NC CST MON
AFTN THRU TUE NGT. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LO LVL MOISTURE
FM THE ATLC AND STRNG LIFT (ALNG/JUST N OF THE BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LO)...WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVR THE
AREA...ESPLY LATER TNGT INTO TUE AFTN. HIGHEST POPS/CHC FOR
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE OVR ERN/SERN CNTIES DURING THIS TIME.
POPS WILL DIMINISH FM W TO E TUE AFTN THRU TUE NGT...AS THE LO
MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA. ISLTD THUNDER POSSIBLE ESE AREAS.

LO TEMPS TNGT RANGING THRU THE 60S TO NEAR 70. HI TEMPS ON MON AND
TUE IN THE MID 70S TO ARND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE
LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND.

UPPER FLOW WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL CONUS...DOWNSTREAM OF AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER THE WRN
PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA. OVER THE LOCAL AREA...A LEADING
SHORTWAVE WILL FLATTEN THE UPPER FLOW BRIEFLY WEDS BEFORE SWLY
FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH THURS-
FRI. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND PARENT LOW WILL REACH THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY LATE WEDS INTO WEDS NIGHT. MEANWHILE...WEDGE OVER
THE LOCAL AREA BREAKS DOWN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WEDS. MID-LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE STATES WILL RIDGE NEWD INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AS SFC HIGH BREAKS DOWN. SUBSIDENCE VISIBLE IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY AND THETA-E ADVECTION
WILL LIKELY INHIBIT PRECIP WEDS. WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH WEDS
NIGHT AS SWLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA THURS...WHICH COMBINED WITH THETA-E
ADVECTION/INSTABILITY MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING OUTSIDE
OF SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES IN SWLY FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. BEST COVERAGE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA AND ALONG THE COAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DROPPING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURS NIGHT INTO
FRI. THE UPPER WAVE DE-AMPLIFIES...WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAINING
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. DESPITE LACK OF DYNAMICS...WILL INCREASE
POPS TO CHANCE AS A WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS
ANTICIPATED. OF COURSE...TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL IMPACT WHERE THE
BEST COVERAGE WILL BE ON FRIDAY AND HOW WARM TEMPS GET. EXPECT THE
FRONT TO CLEAR THE LOCAL AREA FRI NIGHT AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. BEST CAA ARRIVES FRI NIGHT-SAT
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE OH VALLEY. THE RESULT WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WILL HOLD
ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SE TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER
ECMWF AND PROXIMITY TO FRONT/MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH ACRS SOUTHERN
TERMINALS THROUGH MID-MORNING.

MVFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. EXPECT RETURN TO VFR BY
MIDDAY AT RIC BUT ELSEWHERE AT SBY AND AT COASTAL TERMINALS, KEPT
LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOME VCSH WORDING FOR
THE AFTN. NE WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS AT ORF AND ECG AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN
THAT AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 22Z,
WITH BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AFTER THIS TIME THROUGH THE
EVENING AT ECG/PHF/ORF.

OUTLOOK...FRONT BECOMES STALLED TO OUR SE, AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS WL PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR PSBL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AT ORF AND ECG. SHOWERS WILL RE-DEVELOP MONDAY AFTN THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY, WITH ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY AT COASTAL TERMINALS. DRIER WEATHER AND A RETURN TO VFR
CONDS ARE FORECAST LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SFC COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS MORNING, WITH SOME SCT SHRAS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS ALONG
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. FLOW IS E-NE ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS, WITH SW
FLOW FARTHER SOUTH ALONG CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND THE
LOWER CHES BAY. FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A BRIEF SURGE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
BETTER CAA ARRIVES. LOOKING AT OBS IN THE UPPER CHES BAY, NOTING
GUSTS TO 18-22 KT OVER UPPER BAY, GENERALLY IN LINE WITH HRRR
DEPICTION. HRRR AND DOWNSCALE NAM DEPICTING A SHORT LIVED N-NE SURGE
WITH NE WINDS GUSTING TO MARGINAL/LOW END SCA IN THE BAY.
ACCORDINGLY, HV HOISTED A RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION SCA THROUGH
NOON.

FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. E-NELY FLOW CONTINUES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING RIDGED OVER THE
WATERS THRU WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT AND LIFT ALONG THE SE COAST AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
MON-WED. THIS WILL SERVE TO STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE NRN WATERS...RESULTING IN NELY WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE NRN
COASTAL WATERS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT INTO MON. SEAS WILL
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 4-6 FT NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. HV GONE
AHEAD WITH AN SCA OVER ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF PARRAMORE
ISLAND FROM 6A MON-6A TUES. WINDS/SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED MON/MON NGT
BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. WEDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
WEDS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FLOW BECOMES SLY WED
NIGHT INTO THURS AND SWLY THURS AND FRI IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT, WHICH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT INTO FRI.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEVELOPING NE FLOW 15-20KT WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, AND WILL RESULT IN BUILDING TIDAL
ANOMALIES APPROACHING 1 TO 1.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL BY LATER MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. NUISANCE TO LOW END MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING
HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

 506 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACRS THE REGION THIS MORNG INTO THIS
AFTN...THEN STALL ALONG THE SE AND MID ATLC CSTS LATER THIS AFTN
THRU TUE NGT...AS HI PRES BLDS FM THE OH VLY/LWR GRT LKS ENE INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. DRIER AIR WILL TRY TO NUDGE INTO NNW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG...RESULTING IN THE
HIGHEST POPS (50-70%) SHIFTING INTO SRN/SE CNTIES. GENERALLY MSTLY
CLDY WITH POPS 15-25%. HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 70S N TO
THE LWR 80S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODELS FOR TNGT THRU
TUE NGT...RESULTING IN AN UNSETTLED RATHER WET PATTERN FOR THE
REGION. LO PRES DEVELOPING ALNG THE SE CST TNGT INTO MON...WILL
LIFT NE ALNG THE STALLED FRNTL BOUNDARY AND OFF THE VA/NC CST MON
AFTN THRU TUE NGT. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LO LVL MOISTURE
FM THE ATLC AND STRNG LIFT (ALNG/JUST N OF THE BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LO)...WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVR THE
AREA...ESPLY LATER TNGT INTO TUE AFTN. HIGHEST POPS/CHC FOR
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE OVR ERN/SERN CNTIES DURING THIS TIME.
POPS WILL DIMINISH FM W TO E TUE AFTN THRU TUE NGT...AS THE LO
MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA. ISLTD THUNDER POSSIBLE ESE AREAS.

LO TEMPS TNGT RANGING THRU THE 60S TO NEAR 70. HI TEMPS ON MON AND
TUE IN THE MID 70S TO ARND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE
LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND.

UPPER FLOW WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL CONUS...DOWNSTREAM OF AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER THE WRN
PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA. OVER THE LOCAL AREA...A LEADING
SHORTWAVE WILL FLATTEN THE UPPER FLOW BRIEFLY WEDS BEFORE SWLY
FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH THURS-
FRI. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND PARENT LOW WILL REACH THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY LATE WEDS INTO WEDS NIGHT. MEANWHILE...WEDGE OVER
THE LOCAL AREA BREAKS DOWN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WEDS. MID-LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE STATES WILL RIDGE NEWD INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AS SFC HIGH BREAKS DOWN. SUBSIDENCE VISIBLE IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY AND THETA-E ADVECTION
WILL LIKELY INHIBIT PRECIP WEDS. WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH WEDS
NIGHT AS SWLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA THURS...WHICH COMBINED WITH THETA-E
ADVECTION/INSTABILITY MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING OUTSIDE
OF SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES IN SWLY FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. BEST COVERAGE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA AND ALONG THE COAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DROPPING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURS NIGHT INTO
FRI. THE UPPER WAVE DE-AMPLIFIES...WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAINING
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. DESPITE LACK OF DYNAMICS...WILL INCREASE
POPS TO CHANCE AS A WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS
ANTICIPATED. OF COURSE...TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL IMPACT WHERE THE
BEST COVERAGE WILL BE ON FRIDAY AND HOW WARM TEMPS GET. EXPECT THE
FRONT TO CLEAR THE LOCAL AREA FRI NIGHT AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. BEST CAA ARRIVES FRI NIGHT-SAT
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE OH VALLEY. THE RESULT WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WILL HOLD
ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SE TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER
ECMWF AND PROXIMITY TO FRONT/MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 09Z...A COLD FRONT HAD DROPPED SOUTH OF RIC-SBY...AND WILL
DROP ACROSS REMAINDER OF TERMINALS THROUGH MID-MORNING.

SOME SCT SHRAS/TSTMS WERE STILL NOTED ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF SBY AT
09Z...AND COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHRAS AT RIC JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH PHF/ORF AROUND 09-10Z
AND ECG BY 12Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOLLOWING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT HV GONE WITH VCSH AT SE TERMINALS FOR NOW.
EXPECT RETURN TO VFR BY MIDDAY AT RIC BUT ELSEWHERE AT SBY AND
FARTHER TO THE SE, KEPT LOW CLOUDS (MVFR CIGS) IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. NE WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS AT ORF AND ECG AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THAT AREA.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE LATE TNGT THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH PERIODS OF MVFR AND SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR PSBL...ESPECIALLY
AT ORF AND ECG MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. DRIER WEATHER IS
FORECAST LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SFC COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS MORNING, WITH SOME SCT SHRAS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS ALONG
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. FLOW IS E-NE ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS, WITH SW
FLOW FARTHER SOUTH ALONG CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND THE
LOWER CHES BAY. FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A BRIEF SURGE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
BETTER CAA ARRIVES. LOOKING AT OBS IN THE UPPER CHES BAY, NOTING
GUSTS TO 18-22 KT OVER UPPER BAY, GENERALLY IN LINE WITH HRRR
DEPICTION. HRRR AND DOWNSCALE NAM DEPICTING A SHORT LIVED N-NE SURGE
WITH NE WINDS GUSTING TO MARGINAL/LOW END SCA IN THE BAY.
ACCORDINGLY, HV HOISTED A RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION SCA THROUGH
NOON.

FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. E-NELY FLOW CONTINUES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING RIDGED OVER THE
WATERS THRU WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT AND LIFT ALONG THE SE COAST AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
MON-WED. THIS WILL SERVE TO STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE NRN WATERS...RESULTING IN NELY WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE NRN
COASTAL WATERS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT INTO MON. SEAS WILL
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 4-6 FT NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. HV GONE
AHEAD WITH AN SCA OVER ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF PARRAMORE
ISLAND FROM 6A MON-6A TUES. WINDS/SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED MON/MON NGT
BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. WEDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
WEDS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FLOW BECOMES SLY WED
NIGHT INTO THURS AND SWLY THURS AND FRI IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT, WHICH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT INTO FRI.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 744 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MAINLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS
THE NRN CONUS AND SRN CANADA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WI AND
ASSOCIATED 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV SUPPORTED SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPINKLES OVER NRN WI INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI. WITH THE
FORCING MAINLY IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER AND RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
JUST MID LEVEL CLOUDS/CIGS WERE REPORTED WITH MOST STATIONS NOT EVEN
REPORTING ANY MEASURABLE AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE...PARLTY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH PREVAILED OVER THE REST OF
THE CWA.

TONIGHT...EXPECT THE -SHRA/SPRINKLES OVER SW UPPER MI TO SLOWLY
SLIDE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS. THE LEFTOVER
MID CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO THIN OUT OVERNIGHT AS QVECTOR DIV SPREADS
INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH INCREASING SW FLOW 925-700 MB THETA-E
ADVECTION ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MAY SPREAD INTO THE WEST HALF LATE. THE
SRLY FLOW WILL KEEP MIN READINGS IN THE MID 50S INLAND TO AROUND 60
IN DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

TUESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
DROP THROUGH WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND AIDED BY THE LAKE BREEZE INTO THE
NW CWA BY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1K-2K RANGE...RELATIVELY WEAK
CAPPING AND THE POTENTIAL A WEAK SHORTWAVE BRUSHING THE AREA MAY
PRODUCE SOME ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE
WEST HALF. SINCE THE STRONGEST FORCING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NW OF
THE CWA...ONLY LOWER END CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2014

THE MAIN ISSUES THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE FLOODING POTENTIAL
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...GALES ON LAKE SUPERIOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MOVING IN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TO WESTERN IOWA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT OR AROUND 1000MB.
AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS SLIDES ACROSS
THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER...TAKING
THE LOW FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN THE OTHER MODELS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON
INCREASED MOISTURE UPGLIDE AS SHOWN ON THE 300K ISOSURFACE ALONG
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE SHOWN BY PLOTTING 1000-500 RH. THE BEST
CHANCE OF CONVECTION WOULD BE TUESDAY EVENING WITH INSTABILITY
LINGERING ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE LOW. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE
NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WHILE FURTHER STRENGTHENING
TO AROUND 990MB AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THIS POINT...THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
WOULD BE GREATEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WOULD BE IN PLACE AT THE SAME TIME ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE IS MAXIMIZED AND DEEP LAYER FORCING IS MAXIMIZED AS A FAIRLY
STRONG 700MB FGEN BAND WRAPS THROUGH THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...THE
AREA WILL LIE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET MAX TO THE SOUTH AND
PARTIALLY IN THE INFLUENCE OF A RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET MAX
TO THE NORTH. ALSO IN SUPPORT OF HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE PWAT VALUES CONTINUING TO BE
PROGGED AT 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ON STRONG SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE REGION. RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER...OVERALL INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED HEAVY RAINFALL FEATURES SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA AND
MAINLY WRAP AROUND PRECIP LINGERS OVER GENERALLY THE WESTERN U.P. AS
A DRY SLOT IS PROGGED TO WEDGE INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS...ALLOWING FOR MAINLY DRIZZLE.

HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL INCLUDING AREAL FLOOD WATCH...WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
LIKELY EXCEED 2 INCHES WITH UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA. MOST OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD...BETWEEN 06Z/10 AND 18Z/10.
THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ON VERY SATURATED SOILS WHICH WILL
ALLOW RUNOFF TO BEGIN QUICKLY. MANY AREAS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE U.P. ARE RUNNING AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE THE 2
WEEK NORMAL DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. SEVERAL RIVERS WITHIN THE
FLOOD WATCH ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL WITH ANY ADDITIONAL
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TO INCREASE THESE LEVEL...SOME OF WHICH
MAY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE...BASED ON HEAVIER RAINFALL GUIDANCE.

OUTSIDE OF THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL...STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN
ISSUE. AS THE LOW PUSHES INTO THE REGION...A FAIRLY STRONG AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN CANADA. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE LAND AREAS AWAY FROM
THE SHORE WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH. OVER THE LAKE...THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND AREAS NEAR THE SHORE WILL SEE WINDS
SUSTAINED CLOSER TO 35 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING AROUND 45 TO
EVEN 50 MPH. THIS IS SUPPORTED WITH CAA ACROSS THE LAKE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW WITH RELATIVELY WARM LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ALLOWING STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE. SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT WINDS MIXING DOWN FROM AROUND 925-900MB...WHERE WINDS ARE
PROGGED TO BE RIGHT AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH. CONFIDENCE IN HIGH WINDS IS
FAIRLY HIGH OVER THE LAKE...WITH A BIT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND
DIRECTION. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A GALE WATCH BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR JAMES
BAY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST...PUSHING INTO QUEBEC BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR KEEPING GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE FORECAST...HOWEVER...AS THE
LOW SLIPS AWAY AND THE HIGH BUILDS IN...WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES
PUSHING THROUGH. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVERHEAD ALONG
WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT AND DRIER AIR...ALLOWING THE PRECIP TO END
AND SKIES TO CLEAR. TEMPERATURES COULD BE QUITE COOL FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH CALM CONDITIONS...CLEARING SKIES AND PWAT VALUES AROUND 30 TO
40 PERCENT OF NORMAL. KEPT THE IDEA OF SEEING BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF THE U.P.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND SKIES MAINLY CLEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ON RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH. THE GFS/EC HAVE ANOTHER
SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE AREA DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
TIME PERIOD...HOWEVER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND THE OVERALL STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. LEANED HEAVILY ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU THE NIGHT AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW WITH
LOW LEVELS REMAINING RELATIVELY DRY. OTHERWISE...DECOUPLING WINDS
THIS EVENING SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF MARGINAL LLWS AT ALL
TERMINALS BEFORE LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS AFTER 06Z. ON TUE
MORNING...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS MAY LEAD TO MVFR CIGS AT KIWD INTO THE EARLY
AFTN...AND THEN AT KCMX JUST AFTER FROPA IN THE LATE AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2014

SRLY WINDS TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER
NEW ENGLAND AND A TROUGH FROM NW ONTARIO INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
LOOK FOR THE TROUGH TO PUSH INTO LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY...WHILE A
STRONGER LOW ORGANIZES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT THE
DEEPENING LOW TO SHIFT NE ACROSS WI ON WEDNESDAY...AND ACROSS E
UPPER MI AND N LOWER MI LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE CONTINUING NE INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF
N GALES IS EXPECTED FROM WED MORNING THROUGH WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE WRN LAKES.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 431 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2014

HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL INCLUDING AREAL FLOOD WATCH...WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
LIKELY EXCEED 2 INCHES WITH UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA. MOST OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD...BETWEEN 06Z/10 AND 18Z/10.
THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ON VERY SATURATED SOILS WHICH WILL
ALLOW RUNOFF TO BEGIN QUICKLY. MANY AREAS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE U.P. ARE RUNNING AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE THE 2
WEEK NORMAL DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. SEVERAL RIVERS WITHIN THE
FLOOD WATCH ARE RUNNING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TO INCREASE THESE
LEVEL...SOME OF WHICH MAY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE...BASED ON HEAVIER
RAINFALL GUIDANCE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR MIZ001>006-009>013-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ243>245-264>267.

  GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR LSZ162-240>242-263.

  GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ248>251.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...KEC






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 359 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR LAKES BTWN A BROAD UPR RDG OVER WRN NAMERICA AND A TROF OVER
THE NE STATES. SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THIS WNW FLOW WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE
FOR CLOUD COVER AND ISOLD SHRA OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS NOW MOVED
EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH CLOUD COVER GENERALLY ERODING. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA HAS GENERATED SOME WAA
CLOUDS OVER ERN SD BUT NO PCPN AT THIS TIME AS AIR MASS VERY DRY AS
NOTED ON 12Z ABR SNDG.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS WILL FOCUS MAINLY ON TEMPS AND CLOUDS AS AIRMASS
LOOKS TO BE TOO DRY FOR PCPN OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

TNGT...TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN HI PRES RETREATING TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND AND LO PRES TAKING SHAPE SW OF LK WINNIPEG WILL ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN SSW WIND ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS
WL BE DRY AND SKIES MOSTLY CLR WITH PWATS AROUND 0.75 INCH...THE
STEADY WIND WL TEND TO LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP...ESPECIALLY IN
THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP OVER NW UPR MI. EXPECT THE LOWEST
MIN TEMPS (MID TO UPPER 40S) OVER THE INTERIOR ALONG THE WI BDR AND
E WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WL BE A BIT WEAKER/WINDS LIGHTER.
CONVERSELY MIN TEMPS FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
STAY UP IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

WAA WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING S WINDS AS UPPER MI
REMAINS STUCK BETWEEN A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...AND AN ELONGATED LOW PRES TROUGH SET UP FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY. 850MB TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE 11-12C BY THE END OF THE DAY SHOULD YIELD HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE AREA DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN WAA CLOUDS
AHEAD OF APPROACHING PLAINS SHORTWAVE. SOUTH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS WILL BE
COMMON IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE HAVE ELECTED TO
KEEP FCST DRY FOR NOW DESPITE SOME WEAK FORCING AHEAD OF PLAINS
SHORTWAVE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION PERIOD FROM THE
DRY AND RELATIVELY WARM HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING THE AREA TO THE
MUCH COOLER AND WET PERIOD IN STORE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. THE START OF THIS TRANSITION WILL BE A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST FROM A LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
TO THE EAST OUT OF MINNESOTA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND THE WESTERN U.P. TUESDAY. EXPECT ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO OCCUR ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
U.P. LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. DID CONTINUE TO
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
FRONT/TROUGH DUE TO THE INSTABILITY INCREASING UNDER THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

THIS SLOW MOVING TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE TRACK OF THE
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND THEN QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW TRACK BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL
MEMBERS AND ITS LOCATION AT 00Z THURSDAY...BUT THE 00Z ECMWF OR 12Z
GEM RUNS SEEM TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE WITH THE OTHER MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THIS CONSENSUS TRACKS A LOW-MID 990MB LOW FROM
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AT 12Z WEDNESDAY TO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY
00Z THURSDAY AND INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT THAT IDEA AND AWAY FROM THE FASTER AND
FARTHER EAST SOLUTION SEEN ON THE 12Z GFS. WITH THAT IDEA IN
MIND...EXPECT A TRANSITION FROM THE LIGHTER PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL U.P. ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO
WIDESPREAD RAIN LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING POPS DURING THAT PERIOD AS THE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA AND DECIDED UP THE
WEDNESDAY POPS TO DEFINITE VALUES ACROSS THE CWA. DID ADD A SMALL
POCKET OF THUNDER ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN BORDER WEDNESDAY WHERE THE
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK AND POCKET OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WOULD BE
LOCATED. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE
RAIN TO LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE WEST AND ESPECIALLY THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA WHICH WILL BE JUST TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE 850/700MB
LOW TRACK. WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW...HAVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER AN 1.25 INCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER NORTHWEST
UPPER MICHIGAN (AMOUNTS OF 1.5-2IN). IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN...WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOLID NORTHERLY GALES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
EXPECT THE STRONG WINDS TO AFFECT THE SHORELINE AREAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT (GUSTS TO 35KTS) BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. HAVE WINDS RIGHT AROUND WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA  OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND EVEN IF THEY DON/T
REACH CRITERIA...THERE COULD BE DECENT IMPACTS WITH A SATURATED
GROUND AND LEAVES ON THE TREES HELPING TO CAUSE SOME TREES TO FALL
DOWN.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE LOW WILL USHER IN COLD AIR ALOFT (850
TEMPS OF -1C BY 18Z THURSDAY) AND LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW UNTIL THE SECOND WAVE AND TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER AREA OF
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THAT SECOND
WAVE...EXPECT DRYING CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER/SURFACE RIDGE MOVE INTO
THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SKIES
CLEAR ON FRIDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE LOWS NEARING FREEZING. THINK
BEST CHANCE WOULD BE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AS IS TRADITIONALLY
THE CASE WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WILL BE A COOL STRETCH AND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE 50S EACH DAY.
OVER THE WEST ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY...COULD SEE SOME LOCATIONS
STRUGGLING TO RISE OUT OF THE UPPER 40S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS FCST PERIOD WITH A DRY SW FLOW ARND HI
PRES MOVING E THRU THE LOWER LKS. DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WL ALLOW
FOR GUSTY WINDS TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTN AND LATE MON MORNING AT MAINLY
SAW AND IWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL EXIT TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A LOW PRES TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH
WRN ONTARIO INTO THE NRN PLAINS. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUE WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE EXITING INTO QUEBEC ON
THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF N GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG OVER NCNTRL LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE PATCH OF FOG HAS RESIDED MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 331 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR LKS BTWN AN UPR RDG OVER WRN NAMERICA AND A TROF IN THE E. A
SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THIS WNW FLOW IS LOCATED NEAR JAMES BAY EARLY
THIS MRNG. A RIBBON OF MSTR/CLD COVER/SOME SHOWERS IS NOTED ALONG
ITS ATTENDANT COLD FNT STRECHING SWWD TOWARD NRN LK SUP AND A WEAK
LO PRES CENTER RUNNING EWD ALONG THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER. THE THICKER
CLDS AND SHOWERS JUST N OF LK SUP APPEAR TO FORCED BY AREA OF H85-5
QVECTOR CNVGC DEPICTED BY THE SHORT TERM MODELS. UPR MI IS DOMINATED
BY A LLVL W FLOW BTWN THE COLD FNT/SFC LO AND HI PRES MOVING INTO
THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THE UPSTREAM 00Z INL RAOB IS FAIRLY DRY
WITH 00Z H85/H7 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS RUNNING AT 7C/8C.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON HOW FAR S THE
AREA OF CLDS/SHOWERS JUST N OF LK SUP WL MOVE AND TEMPS FOR THIS
AFTN/TNGT.

TODAY...AS THE SHRTWV NEAR JAMES BAY MOVES ESEWD THRU QUEBEC
TODAY...ITS ATTENDANT COLD FNT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT S THRU NRN LK SUP
BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE KEWEENAW. SINCE THE AREA OF QVECTOR CNVGC
FORCING THE THICKER CLDS/SHOWERS NOW IN ONTARIO IS FCST TO SHIFT
ESEWD OVER NRN LK SUP AND N OF THE LAND CWA WITH THE DRY H85-7 W
FLOW DOMINATING...ALL THE SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE SHOWERS MOVING
NO FARTHER S THAN THE CNDN BORDER IN LK SUP BEFORE EXITING TO THE E
BY 18Z. ALTHOUGH SCT-BKN MID CLDS MAY BRUSH NRN UPR MI MAINLY THIS
MRNG...THERE SHOULD BE NO OTHER IMPACT. THE HI PRES NOW IN THE MID
MS RIVER VALLEY IS FCST TO SHIFT TO THE SE GREAT LKS BY 0Z MON. THE
WSW H925-85 FLOW THIS AFTN ARND THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO LIFT H85
TEMPS UP TO ARND 12C OVER THE CWA. THE FCST DEEP MIXED LYR/NEARLY
ADIABATIC SFC-H75 LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS WARRANTS HI TEMPS
TOWARD THE HI END OF GUIDANCE AND NEAR 80 OVER THE SCENTRAL AWAY FM
LK MODERATION. WEAKER GRADIENT NEAR LK SUP ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
LO PRES TROF SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LK BREEZE NEAR LK SUP AND SOME
LOCAL COOLING...BUT THE WSW 15-20KT H925 FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE
INLAND PENETRATION OF THE LK BREEZE. MORE MODERATION IS LIKELY NEAR
LK MI E OF ESCANABA. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME HI BASED CU...THE
AFTN SHOULD BE MOSUNNY WITH MIN RH DIPPING TOWARD 30 PCT AS DEWPTS
MIX OUT INTO THE LO-MID 40S AWAY FM LK INFLUENCE. THE DEEP MIXING
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME WIND GUSTS TO 15-20 MPH...BUT FIRE WX SHOULD NOT
BE A CONCERN GIVEN RECENT GENEROUS RAINFALL.

TNGT...UPR MI WL BE DOMINATED BY A STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW UNDER
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE HI PRES RETREATING TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND AND LO PRES TAKING SHAPE SW OF LK WINNIPEG. ALTHOUGH THE
AIRMASS WL BE DRY/SKIES MOCLR WITH PWAT DROPPING AS LO AS 0.50-0.75
INCH...THE STEADY WIND WL TEND TO LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP...
ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP OVER NW UPR MI. EXPECT
THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR SCENTRAL AND E WHERE THE PRES
GRADIENT WL BE A BIT WEAKER/WINDS LIGHTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION PERIOD FROM THE
DRY AND RELATIVELY WARM HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING THE AREA TO THE
MUCH COOLER AND WET PERIOD IN STORE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. THE START OF THIS TRANSITION WILL BE A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST FROM A LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
TO THE EAST OUT OF MINNESOTA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND THE WESTERN U.P. TUESDAY. EXPECT ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO OCCUR ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
U.P. LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. DID CONTINUE TO
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
FRONT/TROUGH DUE TO THE INSTABILITY INCREASING UNDER THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

THIS SLOW MOVING TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE TRACK OF THE
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND THEN QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW TRACK BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL
MEMBERS AND ITS LOCATION AT 00Z THURSDAY...BUT THE 00Z ECMWF OR 12Z
GEM RUNS SEEM TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE WITH THE OTHER MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THIS CONSENSUS TRACKS A LOW-MID 990MB LOW FROM
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AT 12Z WEDNESDAY TO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY
00Z THURSDAY AND INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT THAT IDEA AND AWAY FROM THE FASTER AND
FARTHER EAST SOLUTION SEEN ON THE 12Z GFS. WITH THAT IDEA IN
MIND...EXPECT A TRANSITION FROM THE LIGHTER PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL U.P. ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO
WIDESPREAD RAIN LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING POPS DURING THAT PERIOD AS THE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA AND DECIDED UP THE
WEDNESDAY POPS TO DEFINITE VALUES ACROSS THE CWA. DID ADD A SMALL
POCKET OF THUNDER ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN BORDER WEDNESDAY WHERE THE
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK AND POCKET OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WOULD BE
LOCATED. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE
RAIN TO LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE WEST AND ESPECIALLY THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA WHICH WILL BE JUST TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE 850/700MB
LOW TRACK. WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW...HAVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER AN 1.25 INCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER NORTHWEST
UPPER MICHIGAN (AMOUNTS OF 1.5-2IN). IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN...WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOLID NORTHERLY GALES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
EXPECT THE STRONG WINDS TO AFFECT THE SHORELINE AREAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT (GUSTS TO 35KTS) BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. HAVE WINDS RIGHT AROUND WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA  OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND EVEN IF THEY DON/T
REACH CRITERIA...THERE COULD BE DECENT IMPACTS WITH A SATURATED
GROUND AND LEAVES ON THE TREES HELPING TO CAUSE SOME TREES TO FALL
DOWN.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE LOW WILL USHER IN COLD AIR ALOFT (850
TEMPS OF -1C BY 18Z THURSDAY) AND LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW UNTIL THE SECOND WAVE AND TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER AREA OF
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THAT SECOND
WAVE...EXPECT DRYING CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER/SURFACE RIDGE MOVE INTO
THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SKIES
CLEAR ON FRIDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE LOWS NEARING FREEZING. THINK
BEST CHANCE WOULD BE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AS IS TRADITIONALLY
THE CASE WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WILL BE A COOL STRETCH AND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE 50S EACH DAY.
OVER THE WEST ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY...COULD SEE SOME LOCATIONS
STRUGGLING TO RISE OUT OF THE UPPER 40S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS FCST PERIOD WITH A DRY SW FLOW ARND HI
PRES MOVING E THRU THE LOWER LKS. DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WL ALLOW
FOR GUSTY WINDS TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTN AND LATE MON MORNING AT MAINLY
SAW AND IWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL EXIT TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IN BETWEEN THE HUDSON BAY AND LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW
TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE EXITING INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF N TO NW GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KF






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 152 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR LKS BTWN AN UPR RDG OVER WRN NAMERICA AND A TROF IN THE E. A
SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THIS WNW FLOW IS LOCATED NEAR JAMES BAY EARLY
THIS MRNG. A RIBBON OF MSTR/CLD COVER/SOME SHOWERS IS NOTED ALONG
ITS ATTENDANT COLD FNT STRECHING SWWD TOWARD NRN LK SUP AND A WEAK
LO PRES CENTER RUNNING EWD ALONG THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER. THE THICKER
CLDS AND SHOWERS JUST N OF LK SUP APPEAR TO FORCED BY AREA OF H85-5
QVECTOR CNVGC DEPICTED BY THE SHORT TERM MODELS. UPR MI IS DOMINATED
BY A LLVL W FLOW BTWN THE COLD FNT/SFC LO AND HI PRES MOVING INTO
THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THE UPSTREAM 00Z INL RAOB IS FAIRLY DRY
WITH 00Z H85/H7 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS RUNNING AT 7C/8C.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON HOW FAR S THE
AREA OF CLDS/SHOWERS JUST N OF LK SUP WL MOVE AND TEMPS FOR THIS
AFTN/TNGT.

TODAY...AS THE SHRTWV NEAR JAMES BAY MOVES ESEWD THRU QUEBEC
TODAY...ITS ATTENDANT COLD FNT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT S THRU NRN LK SUP
BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE KEWEENAW. SINCE THE AREA OF QVECTOR CNVGC
FORCING THE THICKER CLDS/SHOWERS NOW IN ONTARIO IS FCST TO SHIFT
ESEWD OVER NRN LK SUP AND N OF THE LAND CWA WITH THE DRY H85-7 W
FLOW DOMINATING...ALL THE SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE SHOWERS MOVING
NO FARTHER S THAN THE CNDN BORDER IN LK SUP BEFORE EXITING TO THE E
BY 18Z. ALTHOUGH SCT-BKN MID CLDS MAY BRUSH NRN UPR MI MAINLY THIS
MRNG...THERE SHOULD BE NO OTHER IMPACT. THE HI PRES NOW IN THE MID
MS RIVER VALLEY IS FCST TO SHIFT TO THE SE GREAT LKS BY 0Z MON. THE
WSW H925-85 FLOW THIS AFTN ARND THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO LIFT H85
TEMPS UP TO ARND 12C OVER THE CWA. THE FCST DEEP MIXED LYR/NEARLY
ADIABATIC SFC-H75 LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS WARRANTS HI TEMPS
TOWARD THE HI END OF GUIDANCE AND NEAR 80 OVER THE SCENTRAL AWAY FM
LK MODERATION. WEAKER GRADIENT NEAR LK SUP ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
LO PRES TROF SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LK BREEZE NEAR LK SUP AND SOME
LOCAL COOLING...BUT THE WSW 15-20KT H925 FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE
INLAND PENETRATION OF THE LK BREEZE. MORE MODERATION IS LIKELY NEAR
LK MI E OF ESCANABA. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME HI BASED CU...THE
AFTN SHOULD BE MOSUNNY WITH MIN RH DIPPING TOWARD 30 PCT AS DEWPTS
MIX OUT INTO THE LO-MID 40S AWAY FM LK INFLUENCE. THE DEEP MIXING
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME WIND GUSTS TO 15-20 MPH...BUT FIRE WX SHOULD NOT
BE A CONCERN GIVEN RECENT GENEROUS RAINFALL.

TNGT...UPR MI WL BE DOMINATED BY A STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW UNDER
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE HI PRES RETREATING TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND AND LO PRES TAKING SHAPE SW OF LK WINNIPEG. ALTHOUGH THE
AIRMASS WL BE DRY/SKIES MOCLR WITH PWAT DROPPING AS LO AS 0.50-0.75
INCH...THE STEADY WIND WL TEND TO LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP...
ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP OVER NW UPR MI. EXPECT
THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR SCENTRAL AND E WHERE THE PRES
GRADIENT WL BE A BIT WEAKER/WINDS LIGHTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

DRY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THEN
BECOMING COOL AND WET THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE WAA ON MONDAY...ON INCREASING S WINDS AS
UPPER MI REMAINS STUCK BETWEEN A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITING
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...AND AN ELONGATED TROUGH SET UP FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY. 850MB TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE AROUND 11C BY THE END OF THE DAY. S GUSTS NEAR 20KTS WILL BE
COMMON IN THE AFTERNOON. MAY END UP WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN
FCST ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR THANKS TO THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
DESPITE THE GFS AND ECMWF LIGHT QPF OUTPUTS MONDAY EVENING...HAVE
KEPT THE FCST DRY FOR NOW...ASSOCIATED WITH A 500MB SHORTWAVE AHEAD
OF THE SFC TROUGH SET UP ACROSS MN.

LOOK FOR THE SFC TROUGH TO SET UP ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. KEPT TS POTENTIAL TO A MINIMUM TUESDAY-TUESDAY
EVENING OVER MAINLY W UPPER MI. THE BEST CHANCE OF OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL BE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW OVER KS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY DRIFTS NE
INTO W WI BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY SWINGS ACROSS N LAKE MI WHILE
STRENGTHENING AT 00Z THURSDAY...BEFORE EXITING ACROSS N LAKE HURON
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS UPPER MI
WEDNESDAY EVENING. QPF MAY NEAR AN INCH FROM 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY. BEHIND THE EXITING LOW MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO
SINK IN. 850MB TEMPS OF -2 TO -4C WILL BE POISED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
S CANADIAN PRAIRIES WEDNESDAY EVENING. A SECONDARY 500MB LOW OVER S
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AT 06Z THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY TRACK TO UPPER MI
BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE COOLER CANADIAN AIR WILL BE ABLE TO SLIP IN. 50S
WILL BE COMMON FOR HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LAST
TIME WE HAD 50S FOR HIGHS WAS JULY 15TH AND 8TH. IT/S A GOOD BET
THAT THEY WILL BE BACK FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE N-NW FLOW...EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS FCST PERIOD WITH A DRY SW FLOW ARND HI
PRES MOVING E THRU THE LOWER LKS. DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WL ALLOW
FOR GUSTY WINDS TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTN AND LATE MON MORNING AT MAINLY
SAW AND IWD. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL EXIT TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IN BETWEEN THE HUDSON BAY AND LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW
TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE EXITING INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF N TO NW GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KF






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 723 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR LKS BTWN AN UPR RDG OVER WRN NAMERICA AND A TROF IN THE E. A
SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THIS WNW FLOW IS LOCATED NEAR JAMES BAY EARLY
THIS MRNG. A RIBBON OF MSTR/CLD COVER/SOME SHOWERS IS NOTED ALONG
ITS ATTENDANT COLD FNT STRECHING SWWD TOWARD NRN LK SUP AND A WEAK
LO PRES CENTER RUNNING EWD ALONG THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER. THE THICKER
CLDS AND SHOWERS JUST N OF LK SUP APPEAR TO FORCED BY AREA OF H85-5
QVECTOR CNVGC DEPICTED BY THE SHORT TERM MODELS. UPR MI IS DOMINATED
BY A LLVL W FLOW BTWN THE COLD FNT/SFC LO AND HI PRES MOVING INTO
THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THE UPSTREAM 00Z INL RAOB IS FAIRLY DRY
WITH 00Z H85/H7 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS RUNNING AT 7C/8C.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON HOW FAR S THE
AREA OF CLDS/SHOWERS JUST N OF LK SUP WL MOVE AND TEMPS FOR THIS
AFTN/TNGT.

TODAY...AS THE SHRTWV NEAR JAMES BAY MOVES ESEWD THRU QUEBEC
TODAY...ITS ATTENDANT COLD FNT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT S THRU NRN LK SUP
BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE KEWEENAW. SINCE THE AREA OF QVECTOR CNVGC
FORCING THE THICKER CLDS/SHOWERS NOW IN ONTARIO IS FCST TO SHIFT
ESEWD OVER NRN LK SUP AND N OF THE LAND CWA WITH THE DRY H85-7 W
FLOW DOMINATING...ALL THE SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE SHOWERS MOVING
NO FARTHER S THAN THE CNDN BORDER IN LK SUP BEFORE EXITING TO THE E
BY 18Z. ALTHOUGH SCT-BKN MID CLDS MAY BRUSH NRN UPR MI MAINLY THIS
MRNG...THERE SHOULD BE NO OTHER IMPACT. THE HI PRES NOW IN THE MID
MS RIVER VALLEY IS FCST TO SHIFT TO THE SE GREAT LKS BY 0Z MON. THE
WSW H925-85 FLOW THIS AFTN ARND THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO LIFT H85
TEMPS UP TO ARND 12C OVER THE CWA. THE FCST DEEP MIXED LYR/NEARLY
ADIABATIC SFC-H75 LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS WARRANTS HI TEMPS
TOWARD THE HI END OF GUIDANCE AND NEAR 80 OVER THE SCENTRAL AWAY FM
LK MODERATION. WEAKER GRADIENT NEAR LK SUP ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
LO PRES TROF SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LK BREEZE NEAR LK SUP AND SOME
LOCAL COOLING...BUT THE WSW 15-20KT H925 FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE
INLAND PENETRATION OF THE LK BREEZE. MORE MODERATION IS LIKELY NEAR
LK MI E OF ESCANABA. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME HI BASED CU...THE
AFTN SHOULD BE MOSUNNY WITH MIN RH DIPPING TOWARD 30 PCT AS DEWPTS
MIX OUT INTO THE LO-MID 40S AWAY FM LK INFLUENCE. THE DEEP MIXING
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME WIND GUSTS TO 15-20 MPH...BUT FIRE WX SHOULD NOT
BE A CONCERN GIVEN RECENT GENEROUS RAINFALL.

TNGT...UPR MI WL BE DOMINATED BY A STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW UNDER
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE HI PRES RETREATING TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND AND LO PRES TAKING SHAPE SW OF LK WINNIPEG. ALTHOUGH THE
AIRMASS WL BE DRY/SKIES MOCLR WITH PWAT DROPPING AS LO AS 0.50-0.75
INCH...THE STEADY WIND WL TEND TO LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP...
ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP OVER NW UPR MI. EXPECT
THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR SCENTRAL AND E WHERE THE PRES
GRADIENT WL BE A BIT WEAKER/WINDS LIGHTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

DRY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THEN
BECOMING COOL AND WET THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE WAA ON MONDAY...ON INCREASING S WINDS AS
UPPER MI REMAINS STUCK BETWEEN A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITING
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...AND AN ELONGATED TROUGH SET UP FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY. 850MB TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE AROUND 11C BY THE END OF THE DAY. S GUSTS NEAR 20KTS WILL BE
COMMON IN THE AFTERNOON. MAY END UP WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN
FCST ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR THANKS TO THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
DESPITE THE GFS AND ECMWF LIGHT QPF OUTPUTS MONDAY EVENING...HAVE
KEPT THE FCST DRY FOR NOW...ASSOCIATED WITH A 500MB SHORTWAVE AHEAD
OF THE SFC TROUGH SET UP ACROSS MN.

LOOK FOR THE SFC TROUGH TO SET UP ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. KEPT TS POTENTIAL TO A MINIMUM TUESDAY-TUESDAY
EVENING OVER MAINLY W UPPER MI. THE BEST CHANCE OF OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL BE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW OVER KS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY DRIFTS NE
INTO W WI BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY SWINGS ACROSS N LAKE MI WHILE
STRENGTHENING AT 00Z THURSDAY...BEFORE EXITING ACROSS N LAKE HURON
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS UPPER MI
WEDNESDAY EVENING. QPF MAY NEAR AN INCH FROM 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY. BEHIND THE EXITING LOW MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO
SINK IN. 850MB TEMPS OF -2 TO -4C WILL BE POISED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
S CANADIAN PRAIRIES WEDNESDAY EVENING. A SECONDARY 500MB LOW OVER S
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AT 06Z THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY TRACK TO UPPER MI
BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE COOLER CANADIAN AIR WILL BE ABLE TO SLIP IN. 50S
WILL BE COMMON FOR HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LAST
TIME WE HAD 50S FOR HIGHS WAS JULY 15TH AND 8TH. IT/S A GOOD BET
THAT THEY WILL BE BACK FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE N-NW FLOW...EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS FCST PERIOD WITH A DRY SW FLOW ARND HI
PRES MOVING E THRU THE LOWER LKS. DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WL ALLOW
FOR GUSTY WINDS TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTN AT MAINLY SAW AND IWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL EXIT TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IN BETWEEN THE HUDSON BAY AND LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW
TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE EXITING INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF N TO NW GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 440 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR LKS BTWN AN UPR RDG OVER WRN NAMERICA AND A TROF IN THE E. A
SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THIS WNW FLOW IS LOCATED NEAR JAMES BAY EARLY
THIS MRNG. A RIBBON OF MSTR/CLD COVER/SOME SHOWERS IS NOTED ALONG
ITS ATTENDANT COLD FNT STRECHING SWWD TOWARD NRN LK SUP AND A WEAK
LO PRES CENTER RUNNING EWD ALONG THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER. THE THICKER
CLDS AND SHOWERS JUST N OF LK SUP APPEAR TO FORCED BY AREA OF H85-5
QVECTOR CNVGC DEPICTED BY THE SHORT TERM MODELS. UPR MI IS DOMINATED
BY A LLVL W FLOW BTWN THE COLD FNT/SFC LO AND HI PRES MOVING INTO
THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THE UPSTREAM 00Z INL RAOB IS FAIRLY DRY
WITH 00Z H85/H7 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS RUNNING AT 7C/8C.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON HOW FAR S THE
AREA OF CLDS/SHOWERS JUST N OF LK SUP WL MOVE AND TEMPS FOR THIS
AFTN/TNGT.

TODAY...AS THE SHRTWV NEAR JAMES BAY MOVES ESEWD THRU QUEBEC
TODAY...ITS ATTENDANT COLD FNT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT S THRU NRN LK SUP
BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE KEWEENAW. SINCE THE AREA OF QVECTOR CNVGC
FORCING THE THICKER CLDS/SHOWERS NOW IN ONTARIO IS FCST TO SHIFT
ESEWD OVER NRN LK SUP AND N OF THE LAND CWA WITH THE DRY H85-7 W
FLOW DOMINATING...ALL THE SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE SHOWERS MOVING
NO FARTHER S THAN THE CNDN BORDER IN LK SUP BEFORE EXITING TO THE E
BY 18Z. ALTHOUGH SCT-BKN MID CLDS MAY BRUSH NRN UPR MI MAINLY THIS
MRNG...THERE SHOULD BE NO OTHER IMPACT. THE HI PRES NOW IN THE MID
MS RIVER VALLEY IS FCST TO SHIFT TO THE SE GREAT LKS BY 0Z MON. THE
WSW H925-85 FLOW THIS AFTN ARND THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO LIFT H85
TEMPS UP TO ARND 12C OVER THE CWA. THE FCST DEEP MIXED LYR/NEARLY
ADIABATIC SFC-H75 LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS WARRANTS HI TEMPS
TOWARD THE HI END OF GUIDANCE AND NEAR 80 OVER THE SCENTRAL AWAY FM
LK MODERATION. WEAKER GRADIENT NEAR LK SUP ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
LO PRES TROF SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LK BREEZE NEAR LK SUP AND SOME
LOCAL COOLING...BUT THE WSW 15-20KT H925 FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE
INLAND PENETRATION OF THE LK BREEZE. MORE MODERATION IS LIKELY NEAR
LK MI E OF ESCANABA. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME HI BASED CU...THE
AFTN SHOULD BE MOSUNNY WITH MIN RH DIPPING TOWARD 30 PCT AS DEWPTS
MIX OUT INTO THE LO-MID 40S AWAY FM LK INFLUENCE. THE DEEP MIXING
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME WIND GUSTS TO 15-20 MPH...BUT FIRE WX SHOULD NOT
BE A CONCERN GIVEN RECENT GENEROUS RAINFALL.

TNGT...UPR MI WL BE DOMINATED BY A STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW UNDER
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE HI PRES RETREATING TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND AND LO PRES TAKING SHAPE SW OF LK WINNIPEG. ALTHOUGH THE
AIRMASS WL BE DRY/SKIES MOCLR WITH PWAT DROPPING AS LO AS 0.50-0.75
INCH...THE STEADY WIND WL TEND TO LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP...
ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP OVER NW UPR MI. EXPECT
THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR SCENTRAL AND E WHERE THE PRES
GRADIENT WL BE A BIT WEAKER/WINDS LIGHTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

DRY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THEN
BECOMING COOL AND WET THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE WAA ON MONDAY...ON INCREASING S WINDS AS
UPPER MI REMAINS STUCK BETWEEN A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITING
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...AND AN ELONGATED TROUGH SET UP FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY. 850MB TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE AROUND 11C BY THE END OF THE DAY. S GUSTS NEAR 20KTS WILL BE
COMMON IN THE AFTERNOON. MAY END UP WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN
FCST ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR THANKS TO THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
DESPITE THE GFS AND ECMWF LIGHT QPF OUTPUTS MONDAY EVENING...HAVE
KEPT THE FCST DRY FOR NOW...ASSOCIATED WITH A 500MB SHORTWAVE AHEAD
OF THE SFC TROUGH SET UP ACROSS MN.

LOOK FOR THE SFC TROUGH TO SET UP ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. KEPT TS POTENTIAL TO A MINIMUM TUESDAY-TUESDAY
EVENING OVER MAINLY W UPPER MI. THE BEST CHANCE OF OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL BE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW OVER KS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY DRIFTS NE
INTO W WI BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY SWINGS ACROSS N LAKE MI WHILE
STRENGTHENING AT 00Z THURSDAY...BEFORE EXITING ACROSS N LAKE HURON
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS UPPER MI
WEDNESDAY EVENING. QPF MAY NEAR AN INCH FROM 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY. BEHIND THE EXITING LOW MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO
SINK IN. 850MB TEMPS OF -2 TO -4C WILL BE POISED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
S CANADIAN PRAIRIES WEDNESDAY EVENING. A SECONDARY 500MB LOW OVER S
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AT 06Z THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY TRACK TO UPPER MI
BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE COOLER CANADIAN AIR WILL BE ABLE TO SLIP IN. 50S
WILL BE COMMON FOR HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LAST
TIME WE HAD 50S FOR HIGHS WAS JULY 15TH AND 8TH. IT/S A GOOD BET
THAT THEY WILL BE BACK FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE N-NW FLOW...EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

ALTHOUGH A DISTURBANCE PASSING THRU NW ONTARIO WL BRING SOME MID
CLDS THIS MRNG TO MAINLY CMX...VFR CONDITIONS WL DOMINATE WITH LLVL
DRY AIR SHOWN ON 00Z LOCAL RAOBS IN PLACE OVER THE UPR LKS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL EXIT TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IN BETWEEN THE HUDSON BAY AND LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW
TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE EXITING INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF N TO NW GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 324 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR LKS BTWN AN UPR RDG OVER WRN NAMERICA AND A TROF IN THE E. A
SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THIS WNW FLOW IS LOCATED NEAR JAMES BAY EARLY
THIS MRNG. A RIBBON OF MSTR/CLD COVER/SOME SHOWERS IS NOTED ALONG
ITS ATTENDANT COLD FNT STRECHING SWWD TOWARD NRN LK SUP AND A WEAK
LO PRES CENTER RUNNING EWD ALONG THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER. THE THICKER
CLDS AND SHOWERS JUST N OF LK SUP APPEAR TO FORCED BY AREA OF H85-5
QVECTOR CNVGC DEPICTED BY THE SHORT TERM MODELS. UPR MI IS DOMINATED
BY A LLVL W FLOW BTWN THE COLD FNT/SFC LO AND HI PRES MOVING INTO
THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THE UPSTREAM 00Z INL RAOB IS FAIRLY DRY
WITH 00Z H85/H7 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS RUNNING AT 7C/8C.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON HOW FAR S THE
AREA OF CLDS/SHOWERS JUST N OF LK SUP WL MOVE AND TEMPS FOR THIS
AFTN/TNGT.

TODAY...AS THE SHRTWV NEAR JAMES BAY MOVES ESEWD THRU QUEBEC
TODAY...ITS ATTENDANT COLD FNT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT S THRU NRN LK SUP
BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE KEWEENAW. SINCE THE AREA OF QVECTOR CNVGC
FORCING THE THICKER CLDS/SHOWERS NOW IN ONTARIO IS FCST TO SHIFT
ESEWD OVER NRN LK SUP AND N OF THE LAND CWA WITH THE DRY H85-7 W
FLOW DOMINATING...ALL THE SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE SHOWERS MOVING
NO FARTHER S THAN THE CNDN BORDER IN LK SUP BEFORE EXITING TO THE E
BY 18Z. ALTHOUGH SCT-BKN MID CLDS MAY BRUSH NRN UPR MI MAINLY THIS
MRNG...THERE SHOULD BE NO OTHER IMPACT. THE HI PRES NOW IN THE MID
MS RIVER VALLEY IS FCST TO SHIFT TO THE SE GREAT LKS BY 0Z MON. THE
WSW H925-85 FLOW THIS AFTN ARND THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO LIFT H85
TEMPS UP TO ARND 12C OVER THE CWA. THE FCST DEEP MIXED LYR/NEARLY
ADIABATIC SFC-H75 LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS WARRANTS HI TEMPS
TOWARD THE HI END OF GUIDANCE AND NEAR 80 OVER THE SCENTRAL AWAY FM
LK MODERATION. WEAKER GRADIENT NEAR LK SUP ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
LO PRES TROF SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LK BREEZE NEAR LK SUP AND SOME
LOCAL COOLING...BUT THE WSW 15-20KT H925 FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE
INLAND PENETRATION OF THE LK BREEZE. MORE MODERATION IS LIKELY NEAR
LK MI E OF ESCANABA. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME HI BASED CU...THE
AFTN SHOULD BE MOSUNNY WITH MIN RH DIPPING TOWARD 30 PCT AS DEWPTS
MIX OUT INTO THE LO-MID 40S AWAY FM LK INFLUENCE. THE DEEP MIXING
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME WIND GUSTS TO 15-20 MPH...BUT FIRE WX SHOULD NOT
BE A CONCERN GIVEN RECENT GENEROUS RAINFALL.

TNGT...UPR MI WL BE DOMINATED BY A STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW UNDER
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE HI PRES RETREATING TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND AND LO PRES TAKING SHAPE SW OF LK WINNIPEG. ALTHOUGH THE
AIRMASS WL BE DRY/SKIES MOCLR WITH PWAT DROPPING AS LO AS 0.50-0.75
INCH...THE STEADY WIND WL TEND TO LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP...
ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP OVER NW UPR MI. EXPECT
THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR SCENTRAL AND E WHERE THE PRES
GRADIENT WL BE A BIT WEAKER/WINDS LIGHTER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2014

ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH QUIET
WEATHER. A TROUGH SETS UP TO THE WEST ON TUE AND WILL HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST HALF. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES AND WEATHER LOOKED GOOD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. 12Z WED WITH THE TROUGH AMPLIFYING 12Z THU
AND MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH STAYS OVER THE
THE AREA FRI AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO -2C TO -4C AND WITH
LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPERATURES RUNNING AT 5C-15C...THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH
LAKE-850 MB DELTA-T FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. WHAT THIS
WILL MEAN IS SOME COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY AND
WEATHER TYPICAL OF FALL AND WILL HAVE POPS IN THROUGH FRI NIGHT
BEFORE DRYING OUT ON SAT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

ALTHOUGH A DISTURBANCE PASSING THRU NW ONTARIO WL BRING SOME MID
CLDS THIS MRNG TO MAINLY CMX...VFR CONDITIONS WL DOMINATE WITH LLVL
DRY AIR SHOWN ON 00Z LOCAL RAOBS IN PLACE OVER THE UPR LKS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON
MONDAY. BEING ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL OCCASIONALLY SEE WINDS UP
TO 20-25KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ON
SUNDAY. BUT WITH THE HIGH DEPARTING...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN UP TO 20KTS INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
EVENING BEFORE REACHING JAMES BAY BY THURSDAY EVENING. WITH LAKE
SUPERIOR EXPECTED TO BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS
LOW...NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS OF 25-30KTS (WITH OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO 35KTS) WILL OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

 940 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014

UPDATED FORECAST EARLIER THIS EVENING TO REMOVE POPS FOR TONIGHT
BASED ON THE 00Z KOAX SOUNDING. INSTABILITY HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS WITH H7 TO H5 LAPSE RATES OF 7.9
C/KM AND MIXING RATIOS > 12.5 G/KG UP TO 850 MB. NEVERTHELESS THE
DEPTH OF THE BEST MOISTURE /MIXING RATIOS > 14 G/KG/ WAS STILL
RATHER SHALLOW ON THE SOUNDING AND PREVENTED SFC-BASED CONVECTION
THIS EVENING. A LOW- LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT
BUT THE BULK OF THE MASS CONVERGENCE IS LIKELY TO BE OVER CTNRL IA
WHERE PARCELS LIFTED FROM AROUND 850 MB WERE UNCAPPED PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THUS WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

WE ALSO LOWERED MORNING POPS ON TUE. GOING FORECAST SCENARIO
HASN`T CHANGED...AND APPEARS TO STILL BE ON TRACK PER 00Z
NAM...BUT THE BEST ASCENT/HEIGHT FALLS DO NOT REACH THE FA UNTIL
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. IT STILL APPEARS WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. EXACTLY HOW THIS EVOLVES WITH
TIME IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT APPEARS WE WILL SEE CONVECTION FIRST
DEVELOP IN CNTRL NEB ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX AND
MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN CWA AROUND 18-19Z. A WARM FRONT WILL TRY AND
LIFT INTO SE NEB/SW IA DURING THE AFTN AS WELL AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING SFC LOW. THE COMBINATION OF BETTER MOISTURE DEPTH...THE
PRESENCE OF THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND THE INCOMING MID-LEVEL
SPEED MAX WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BE SEVERE.
SOME SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE BUT WE EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF
CONVECTION WHICH MAY LIMIT THE SIG SVR POSSIBILITY DUE TO
INTERACTIONS/CLOUD SEEDING EFFECTS. NEVERTHELESS WITH THE WARM
FRONT NEAR AND THE DEGREE OF SHEAR...SVR STORMS SURE SEEM LIKELY.
IN ADDITION...GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE CONVECTION TO THE
BOUNDARY AND THE DEGREE OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO
APPEARS LIKE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY EVEN THOUGH THE STORMS SHOULD
BE MOVING /VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES ARE LIKELY/.

NO OTHER UPDATES ARE PLANNED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM IS SEVERE POTENTIAL
TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING...WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING THE MAIN
ISSUE IN THE LONGER TERM.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
NORTHEASTERN CWA AHEAD OF A VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERLIES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
HAVE ALLOWED A DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU FIELD TO DEVELOP. BOTH THE
LATEST HRRR AND THE RAP INDICATE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA AFTER 00Z
ALONG THE THETA-E AXIS AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS THIS EVENING.

MAIN WEATHER CONCERN COMES ALONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
ON THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT
SLIDES EAST TOWARD COLORADO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AHEAD OF
THIS...A LEE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
BY 00Z WED. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND E/NE ACROSS KANSAS AND SHOULD
DRIFT INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA BY MID AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WITH THE INCREASING SFC CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT SHOULD
QUICKLY GO SEVERE AND ROTATE WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG SHEAR
PROFILES. AREA CONTINUES TO BE OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK IN THE
SWODY2. SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN REGARDS TO ANY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE CHANCES AHEAD OF A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE
EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE SOME SMALLER
POPS FOR THIS...BUT MAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC LOW AS IT SLIDES NORTHEAST
OVER THE CWA BY 06Z/WED. SOUTHWESTERLY 45-55KT LLVL JET THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS SHOULD SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS AFTER DARK WHEN
HEAVY RAIN RATHER THAN SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A THREAT. PW`S
THROUGH THE EVENING DO APPROACH 2.50" DURING THIS TIME. BY
12Z/WED THE SFC LOW WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA WITH
SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY THROUGH WED MORNING BEHIND THE LOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014

A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER THIS WEEK BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION. IN FACT...WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORD COLD
HIGHS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY WHEN WE HAVE HIGHS FORECAST IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S. COLD RAIN IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH. IF TIMING
REMAINS SIMILAR TO WHAT MODELS ARE INDICATING...THE RAIN SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND
LOOKS DRY WITH SOME SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014

MAIN AVN CONCERN IS POSSIBLE SVR TSRA DEVELOPING OVER ERN NEB TUES
AFTN. AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE OVER THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATER TONIGHT THEN RAPIDLY DEEPEN THRU THE DAY ON
TUES. MAIN FOCUS THEN TUES AFTN WILL BE UPON ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT LIFTING THRU THE REGION WITH TSRA ACTIVITY LIKELY. WITH HIGH
DEGREE OF ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IN PLACE...SVR TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS
QUITE PROBABLE AND WILL BE A THREAT TO ALL TERMINALS. IN
ADDITION...A FEW TORNADIC STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BOUSTEAD
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DEE




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

 939 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014

THIS WAS JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO DELAY THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO OUR KANSAS COUNTIES PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL WE WILL DELAY POPS UNTIL
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014

ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY IGNORED FROM TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THERE IS
LITTLE SECRET THAT THE "BIG STORY" OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE
SEEMINGLY DECENT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALTHOUGH MUCH DEPENDS ON YET-TO-BE-DETERMINED
MESOSCALE DETAILS INCLUDING THE IMPACTS OF EARLY-DAY
ACTIVITY...THE COMBINATION OF MODEL-PROJECTED INSTABILITY...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT
CONCERNING...ESPECIALLY FOR ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST 2/3 OF THE CWA.
CERTAINLY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ARE A DECENT BET...AND BASED
ON CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS (AGAIN...NOT SET IN STONE YET)...ANY
STORM THAT MANAGES TO REMAIN FAIRLY DISCRETE CANNOT BE RULED OUT
FOR A TORNADO THREAT...POTENTIALLY ONE OF THE BETTER ISOLATED
TORNADO THREATS THIS CWA HAS OBSERVED SINCE THE PEAK SPRING
SEVERE SEASON. OTHERWISE...FOR THOSE WHO ENJOY SUMMER MORE THAN
FALL...TUESDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE LAST 80-90 DEGREE HIGHS WE
WILL SEE FOR AWHILE BEFORE THE SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
BARRELS THROUGH AS OUTLINED IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW.

STARTING WITH THE HERE AND NOW...ITS BEEN A DRY/WARMER/MORE HUMID
AND IN MANY PLACES SOMEWHAT BREEZY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. THE
BACK EDGE OF SPOTTY VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THAT FLIRTED WITH
THE EXTREME NORTHERN CWA EARLIER HAS SINCE PUSHED EAST INTO
IA...WHILE WELL OF TO THE WEST...THE NEAREST BATCH OF HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS ARE IN NORTHEAST CO. PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT
TERM MODEL DATA...THE BIG PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS INVOLVES
SEASONABLY STRONG QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS UNDER
THE SOUTHERLY BRANCH OF THE UPPER JET...BETWEEN A FLATTENED RIDGE
EXTENDING WEST-EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS...AND A
BROAD TROUGH AND THE NORTHERN JET BRANCH OVER CANADA. WITHIN THE
FLOW FIELD MORE LOCALLY...THE TRAILING EDGE OF A LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DEPARTING EASTWARD ACROSS IA...WHILE FARTHER
UPSTREAM THE MAIN DISTURBANCE OF NOTE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
CA. AT THE SURFACE...BREEZES HAVE GRADUALLY DIMINISHED TODAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO THE GRADUAL APPROACH OF A GENERALLY
NORTH-SOUTH TROUGH AXIS ALIGNED FROM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL NEB INTO NORTHWEST KS. MEANWHILE...WELL EAST
OF THIS TROUGH AXIS...STEADY BREEZES AROUND 15+ MPH GUSTING 20+
MPH CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER IN OUR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST CWA.
WELL OFF TO THE NORTH...THE LEADING EDGES OF THE INCOMING STRONG
COLD FRONT ARE INTO NORTHERN MT/ND. VISIBLE SATELLITE CONFIRMS
WIDESPREAD SUN OVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH SOME ENHANCED PATCHES
OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN/WESTERN ZONES. HIGH TEMPS
WORKED OUT FAIRLY WELL TODAY...AND ARE ON TRACK TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 80S NORTHEAST...UPPER 80S CENTRAL AND LOW 90S SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.

LOOKING FORWARD AND STARTING WITH LATE THIS AFTERNOON/THIS
EVENING...HAVE MAINTAINED NO MENTION OF PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH
00Z/7PM...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING MAINLY IN OUR FAR
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ZONES IN KS AS BOTH THE RAP13/HRRR SUGGEST THAT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM OR TWO COULD POP IN A STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATE ENVIRONMENT DESPITE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP. WITH HINTS OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WORKING EASTWARD OUT OF NORTHEAST
CO...FEEL THAT SLIGHTLY BETTER ISOLATED STORM CHANCES COULD AFFECT
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING...AND THUS HAVE INTRODUCED/MODIFIED
POPS TO REFLECT A 20 PERCENT SLIGHT CHANCE GENERALLY SOUTH OF A
HEBRON- PHILLIPSBURG LINE THIS EVENING WHILE LEAVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA DRY. THEN LATER IN THE NIGHT AFTER
MIDNIGHT...INCREASED POPS TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF THE CWA...WHILE EXPANDING SLIGHT CHANCE 20S TO
ALL OTHER AREAS...ALTHOUGH IN ALL REALITY THE NORTHEAST 1/4 OF THE
CWA COULD VERY WELL GET THROUGH THE NIGHT PRECIP-FREE. IN THE BIG
PICTURE TONIGHT...LOW AMPLITUDE ENERGY OVER THE CO AREA EJECTS OUT
ON THE PLAINS...PROMOTING INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AS EVIDENT ON THE 310K SURFACE. BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF VARIOUS MODELS...CERTAINLY THE BEST SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES BEFORE SUNRISE SHOULD FOCUS SOUTHWEST OF THE TRI-CITIES.
ALTHOUGH WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANY LEGITIMATE SEVERE STORMS
FLARE UP OVER THE LOCAL AREA EITHER THIS EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT...MAINTAINED A STRONG STORM/NICKEL SIZE HAIL POTENTIAL
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE
ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG COULD FOSTER SOME STRONGER CORES. IN OTHER
DEPARTMENTS...BREEZES TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE FAIRLY LIGHT AT NO MORE
THAN 5-10 MPH IN MOST AREAS BUT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY. THESE BREEZES...IN TANDEM WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL HOLD UP LOW TEMPS AT LEAST 5-10
DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT...AND MADE FAIRLY LITTLE CHANGE TO
LOWS AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 64-70 RANGE.

FOR THE TUESDAY DAYTIME HOURS (AND TOUCHING ON THE EVENING SEVERE
THREAT A BIT AS WELL)...ALREADY COVERED SOME OF THE CONCERNS IN
THE OPENING PARAGRAPH. WOULD CERTAINLY EXPECT THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK ON THE UPCOMING DAY 1
OUTLOOKS...AND SHEAR PARAMETERS LIKELY SUPPORT AT LEAST A 5
PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY WITHIN MAINLY THE NORTHEASTERN 2/3 OF
THE CWA...AND MAYBE EVEN A 10 PERCENT PROBABILITY AS LONG AS
INSTABILITY IS NOT HELD DOWN TOO MUCH BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/EARLY
PRECIP. AS OUTLINED IN GENERAL DETAIL IN OUR LATEST HWO
PRODUCT...CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A SPOTTY COVERAGE OF STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS DURING THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY WITH HAIL POTENTIAL TO AROUND QUARTER SIZE.
THEN...THE MAIN EVENT SO TO SPEAK LOOKS TO FOCUS BETWEEN 3PM-
MIDNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD CONTAIN THE VAST MAJORITY OF SEVERE
POTENTIAL. IN THE BIG PICTURE ALOFT...THE GENERAL STORY INVOLVES
CONTINUED ACTIVE CENTRAL ROCKIES SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE MAIN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
TROUGH...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...STRONG DEEPENING OF A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER OVER IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS
AREA...RESULTING IN STEADY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS THE CWA
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT COMES CRASHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE
EVENING. THE BIG QUESTION CENTERS AROUND ON HOW MUCH CAN THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZE IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION...WHICH
SHOULD GENERALLY DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH TIME.
BASED ON SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM MODELS SUCH AS THE 12Z 4KM
WRF-NMM...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
AND/OR SEVERE LINE SEGMENTS DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME...WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR CERTAINLY
SUPPORTIVE OF POSSIBLE (REPEAT POSSIBLE) TORNADIC ACTIVITY GIVEN
0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY ON THE ORDER OF 100-300 M2/S2...AND
HIGHEST IN THE EASTERN CWA. BY LATER IN THE EVENING...THE VAST
MAJORITY OF SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE FOCUSING EAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA HOWEVER. FOR HIGH TEMPS AIMED FOR A RANGE FROM UPPER 70S FAR
NORTH TO AROUND 90 FAR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014

AFTER THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER DIMINISHES LATE TOMORROW
NIGHT...EXPECT UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO OVERTAKE THE REGION
WITH OCCASIONALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS...BEFORE THIS COOL AIRMASS
MODIFIES SOME TOWARDS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

EXPECT AN UNSEASONABLY COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS
THE PLAINS LATE TOMORROW NIGHT...USHERING IN COOL FALL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS AMPLE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH 30-40KTS OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE THE FRONT CROSSES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...THERE WILL BE A NOTABLE DROP OFF IN
INSTABILITY...AND HENCE EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION FROM THUNDERSTORMS
TO LIGHT RAINFALL BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT...CROSSING THE TRI CITIES
AROUND MIDNIGHT.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN STORY...AS
THERE IS A NOTABLE 15C DROP OFF IN 850 MB TEMPS INITIALLY...WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY THAT
WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT VERY COOL
TEMPERATURES TO BE THE RULE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH 60 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. IF REALIZED...RECORD COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGHLIGHTED IN MORNING FORECAST
DISCUSSION...AND WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MODELED AIRMASS...KEPT
PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPS LARGELY IN PLACE AND ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS IN AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THAT SAID...WHILE THE COOLEST DAY
TECHNICALLY MAY BE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WEDNESDAY MAY FEEL THE
COOLEST DUE TO VERY BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE
COLD FRONT...WHICH COMBINED WITH CLOUD COVER...WILL MAKE FOR WHAT
WILL LIKELY FEEL LIKE A RATHER GLOOMY DAY.

WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAIRLY STABLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND PASSING WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. AS WE THEN HEAD INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS OF THE AIRMASS ARE
ANTICIPATED...BUT SEASONABLE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOME WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER THE
PICTURE LATE TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH CEILING HEIGHTS TOMORROW AS WE
COULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. HOWEVER...FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
THE MORE LIKELY PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS IN THIS TAF. THE WIND
WILL BE RATHER LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND RANGE FROM EASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...WESELY




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

 654 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM IS SEVERE POTENTIAL
TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING...WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING THE MAIN
ISSUE IN THE LONGER TERM.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
NORTHEASTERN CWA AHEAD OF A VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERLIES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
HAVE ALLOWED A DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU FIELD TO DEVELOP. BOTH THE
LATEST HRRR AND THE RAP INDICATE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA AFTER 00Z
ALONG THE THETA-E AXIS AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS THIS EVENING.

MAIN WEATHER CONCERN COMES ALONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
ON THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT
SLIDES EAST TOWARD COLORADO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AHEAD OF
THIS...A LEE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
BY 00Z WED. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND E/NE ACROSS KANSAS AND SHOULD
DRIFT INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA BY MID AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WITH THE INCREASING SFC CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT SHOULD
QUICKLY GO SEVERE AND ROTATE WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG SHEAR
PROFILES. AREA CONTINUES TO BE OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK IN THE
SWODY2. SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN REGARDS TO ANY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE CHANCES AHEAD OF A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE
EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE SOME SMALLER
POPS FOR THIS...BUT MAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC LOW AS IT SLIDES NORTHEAST
OVER THE CWA BY 06Z/WED. SOUTHWESTERLY 45-55KT LLVL JET THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS SHOULD SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS AFTER DARK WHEN
HEAVY RAIN RATHER THAN SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A THREAT. PW`S
THROUGH THE EVENING DO APPROACH 2.50" DURING THIS TIME. BY
12Z/WED THE SFC LOW WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA WITH
SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY THROUGH WED MORNING BEHIND THE LOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014

A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER THIS WEEK BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION. IN FACT...WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORD COLD
HIGHS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY WHEN WE HAVE HIGHS FORECAST IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S. COLD RAIN IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH. IF TIMING
REMAINS SIMILAR TO WHAT MODELS ARE INDICATING...THE RAIN SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND
LOOKS DRY WITH SOME SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014

MAIN AVN CONCERN IS POSSIBLE SVR TSRA DEVELOPING OVER ERN NEB TUES
AFTN. AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE OVER THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATER TONIGHT THEN RAPIDLY DEEPEN THRU THE DAY ON
TUES. MAIN FOCUS THEN TUES AFTN WILL BE UPON ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT LIFTING THRU THE REGION WITH TSRA ACTIVITY LIKELY. WITH HIGH
DEGREE OF ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IN PLACE...SVR TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS
QUITE PROBABLE AND WILL BE A THREAT TO ALL TERMINALS. IN
ADDITION...A FEW TORNADIC STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DEE




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 1201 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DRAGS MORE
TROPICAL MOISTURE UP ALONG A STALLED FRONT. DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY
ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER UP THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE WEEK. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1100 PM MONDAY...UPDATE CONCERNED WITH RE-ALIGNING THE
CURRENT FLOOD WATCH. BASED ON THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS...THE COLD
FRONT HAS BASICALLY SWEPT ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE ILM CWA
AT THE MOMENT. THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER RDU AT THE MOMENT...WITH
THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH TO LITTLE RIVER INLET...THEN SW
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SC. WITH THE BEST FORCING/LIFT AND
DEEPEST MOISTURE IE. 2+ PWS...ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT.
THIS HAS LEAD TO A RE-STRUCTURE OF THE FLOOD WATCH TO A REDUCTION
TO JUST 3 COUNTIES THAT REMAIN EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...BRUNSWICK
     NEW HANOVER AND PENDER. LATEST POPS AND QPF FIELDS HAVE BEEN
ALSO RE-ALIGNED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEW FLOOD WATCH CONFIGURATION.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS MAY NEED A TWEAK HERE AND THERE...BUT THE
COOL AND DRIER AIR SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT STILL BASICALLY
WELL UPSTREAM TO AFFECT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....................................
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...THIS UPDATE TO MAINLY DEAL WITH THE TWEAKING
OF THE POPS BASED ON LATEST 88D RADAR TRENDS FROM KLTX AND
SURROUNDING SITES. FOLLOWED BY AN UPDATE TO THE QPF FIELDS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BASED ON LATEST RADAR PCPN TRENDS
AND...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE USING THE LATEST MODEL HRRR FIELDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...........................
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A FRONT STALLED NEAR INTERSTATE 95. THE LOW
APPEARS TO BE LOCATED NEAR DILLON AND SHOULD MOVE TOWARD
FAYETTEVILLE OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS. WHILE THIS WILL REMOVE THE
STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FOCUS FOR SHOWERS...WE STILL
HAVE A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN 2.2 INCHES INLAND TO 2.4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST.
GIVEN COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES THE BULK OF OUR INSTABILITY IS
ELEVATED...500 J/KG INLAND TO NEAR 1000 J/KG AT THE COAST.

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS INTERIOR SE NORTH
CAROLINA AND NEARBY PORTIONS OF INTERIOR NE SOUTH CAROLINA FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN AFTER DARK WILL PROBABLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF OAK ISLAND...ADVECTING BACK ONSHORE IN THE
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. FOR THIS REASON WE WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD
WATCH FROM LUMBERTON AND DILLON EASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHPORT AND
WILMINGTON. SOILS ARE SATURATED OVER MOST OF THE WATCH AREA AND ANY
SUSTAINED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CREATE A FLOODING RISK. WE HAVE
RECEIVED SEVERAL PUBLIC REPORTS VIA FACEBOOK AND PHONE OF 5+ INCHES
OF RAIN MEASURED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW HANOVER COUNTY SO FAR IN
THIS EVENT.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HOW THE EVENT ENDS
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS ARE MUCH FASTER WITH
CLEARING THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP OFF THE COAST THAN ANY OF THE
SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE. (GFS, NAM, ECMWF)  BY 8 PM I WOULD EXPECT MOST OF
THE RAIN TO HAVE ENDED WEST OF I-95 EXCEPT NEAR LUMBERTON...AND BY
MIDNIGHT THE BACK EDGE OF PRECIP WILL PROBABLY BE THROUGH MYRTLE
BEACH AND WHITEVILLE. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL SUNRISE FOR RAIN TO END IN
WILMINGTON HOWEVER AS THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH BECOMES QUITE SLOW.

LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEPARTING NORTHEAST TUE
MORNING WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
THIS SHOULD BRING ABOUT A FAIRLY QUICK END TO ANY LINGER PRECIP TUE
MORNING FOR INLAND SITES. ALONG THE COAST MEASURABLE PRECIP MAY HANG
ON INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SLOWLY EXPANDING SOUTHERN CONUS 5H RIDGE. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TUE. GRADUAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THE NC COAST IS LIKELY TO REMAIN CLOUDY
THROUGH SUNSET. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A MIXED BAG WITH INLAND AREAS
RUNNING WARMER DUE TO BREAKS OF SUN LATER IN THE DAY AND SUBTLE
HEIGHT INCREASES. ALONG THE COAST HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO. CLEARING LATE TUE NIGHT COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF LOW
STRATUS OR FOG JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. LATE CLOUD/FOG WILL HELP KEEP
LOWS NEAR CLIMO TUE NIGHT.

MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON WED AS MID
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO EXPAND EAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP DRY AIR BUILDING IN...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. DEEP DRY AIR ALONG WITH WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVENT DEVELOPMENT OF ANY
MEANINGFUL CONVECTION WED AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE NEAR ZERO.
AFOREMENTIONED NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP HIGHS
ALONG THE COAST A LITTLE COOLER...THOUGH STILL ABOVE CLIMO. TEMPS
WED AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM LOW 90S INLAND SC TO MID 80S ALONG THE
NC COAST. WEAK WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS WED NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE. SOME MOISTURE RETURN ALONG WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW MAY ALLOW DEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATE IN THE PERIOD. LIGHT
RETURN FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOG WILL KEEP LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
EARLY THURS AS RIDGE HOLDS ON ALOFT...BUT BY LATE THURS INTO
FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS. SHOULD REMAIN
DRY FOR THURS AT LEAST OVER MOST OF AREA BUT BY THURS NIGHT INTO
FRI...EXPECT INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. PCP WATER VALUES AS LOW AS 1.4 INCHES
THURS MORNING WILL RAMP UP GREATER THAN 2 INCHES JUST AHEAD AND
ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH FRI. LOOKS LIKE FRONT
WILL GET HUNG UP OVER THE COAST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LEAVING A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THIS MAINTAINS A SW FLOW
ALOFT RUNNING PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND MAY KEEP FRONT HUNG UP
OVER OR NEARBY AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A MORE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE MAY REACH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO GIVE FRONT A PUSH OFF
SHORE BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. OVERALL EXPECT CLOUDS AND
PCP IN FORECAST FOR MUCH OF FRI AND SATURDAY WITH SOME CLEARING BY
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN TERMS OF HOW FAR SOUTH
THE FRONT WILL INITIALLY MAKE IT BEFORE STALLING. TOUGH WIND
FORECAST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT THURS INTO FRI BUT
MAY SEE WINDS BECOME VARIABLE OR NORTH AS FRONT REACHES INTO AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.

EXPECT TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO ON THURS...BUT BY FRI INTO SATURDAY
CLOUDS AND SHWRS WILL AFFECT THE TEMPS AND THEN SOME COOLER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE IN BEHIND FRONT LATER ON SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...KEEPING TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WILL SEE SOME READINGS IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS INLAND WITH
COMBINATION OF COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE N-NW AND CLOUDS AND PCP
OVER THE AREA LATE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THE COLD FRONT BISECTS OUR CWA THIS EVENING. LIGHT NORTH
WINDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAIL INLAND...WHILE MORE SHOWERS ARE
APPROACHING THE COASTAL TERMS WHERE WINDS ARE STILL SOUTHWESTERLY.
WILL MAINTAIN -SHRA FOR KILM/KCRE/KMYR EARLY TONIGHT...BUT PCPN WILL
DIMINISH FROM SW TO NE BY MIDNIGHT OR SO AS THE WEAK LOW CONTINUES
MOVING NORTHEAST. THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE
POST-FRONTAL MVFR/IFR CIGS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENTLY...
CIGS ARE HOVERING AROUND 1KFT INLAND BEHIND THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH CIGS
MAY BOUNCE AROUND BETWEEN MVFR/IFR LEVELS THIS EVENING...EXPECT MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP INTO EARLY TUE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR IFR IS AT KLBT AND KFLO. IFR STRATUS ALONG THE COAST MAY BE MORE
TEMPO IN NATURE AROUND DAYBREAK. MVFR CIGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...BUT DRIER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD
IMPROVE CONDITIONS TO VFR BY TUE AFTN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT NEARS THE
CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1115 PM MONDAY...SFC COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
SC COAST AT THE MOMENT...WITH WIND DIRECTIONS AT SW-NW. WILL TAKE
A SURGE OR PUSH FOR THE COLD FRONT ITSELF TO REALLY MAKE SOME
PROGRESS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT...WILL HOLD ONTO A
SOLID S-SW 15 KT WIND FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH...AND SW-WSW
10-15 KT ACROSS THE SC WATERS SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET. THE SFC
PG ACROSS THE ILM WATERS WILL BE RELAXING AS THE SFC LOW PULLS
FURTHER AWAY TO THE NE OVERNIGHT INTO TUE. THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS AT
2 TO 4 FEET IN THE NEAR TERM WILL REMAIN A FUNCTION OF LOCAL WIND
DRIVEN WAVE PRODUCTION...WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AT 4 TO 6 SECONDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..................................
AS OF 815 PM MONDAY...VERY LITTLE TWEAKING NEEDED TO THE CURRENT
WIND AND SIG. SEAS OVERNIGHT FORECAST. LATEST WIND/SEAS BUOY AND
COASTAL OBS AT OR JUST BELOW BORDERLINE SCEC THRESHOLDS. A
CONTINUED VERY SLOW DIMINISHING TREND TO BOTH WINDS/SIG. SEAS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO TUE AS THE LOW
LIFTS NE OF THE WATERS...TAKING WITH IT THE TIGHTER SFC PG THATS
PRODUCING THOSE HIER WINDS. HAVE TONED DOWN WINDS TO S-SW AROUND
15 KT AND SIGNIFICANT SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE WITH DOMINANT
PERIODS AT 5 TO 6 SECONDS INDICATIVE OF WIND DRIVEN WAVES HAVING
MORE INFLUENCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..........................
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT NEAR INTERSTATE 95 AND SHOULD PUSH INTO
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL DRAG THE FRONT
DOWN TOWARD THE COAST WITH WINDS VEERING MORE WESTERLY LATE ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL INTENSITY HAS REALLY
DIMINISHED THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND AFFECT
THE AREA OVERNIGHT...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE CAPE FEAR WATERS TOWARD
AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE INLAND LOW INCREASED TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLIER TODAY WITH 25 KNOT GUSTS.
WIND SPEEDS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST HAVE PEAKED AND SHOULD
DIMINISH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALONG THE NC COAST THE
STRONGEST SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP SHORTLY BUT WILL
PROBABLY ONLY EXCEED 15 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...EXITING LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE
STALLED FRONT OFF THE COAST DURING TUE. SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TUE AND
TUE NIGHT. GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK AND THE LACK OF ANY COLD PUSH WILL
KEEP WIND SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS BOTH PRE AND POST FRONT. ELONGATED
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WED WITH WINDS VEERING TO
NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY. LATE IN THE DAY SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH NORTHERLY FLOW UNDER 10 KT BECOMING LIGHT AND HIGHLY
VARIABLE. WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT WILL CARRY
OVER FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PERIOD BUT WILL QUICKLY DROP TO 2 TO
3 FT TUE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND OFFSHORE FLOW.
FURTHER REDUCTION IN SEAS IS ANTICIPATED ON WED.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THURS
BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH AND COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE
CAROLINAS...BUT OVERALL EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL REACH BEFORE
STALLING AND THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WINDS SHOULD COME AROUND TO
THE NE TO N AS FRONT GETS A PUSH SOUTHWARD. WILL SHOW A NORTHERLY
SURGE UP TO 15 KTS BY SUN MORNING BUT THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT ON HOW
FAR SOUTH THE COLD FRONT MAKES IT AND HOW MUCH COLD AIR BLEEDS SOUTH
INTO THE WATERS. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT MAY INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FT IN
INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW BY SATURDAY AND MAY SEE A BIT MORE OF AN
INCREASE BY SUNDAY IN COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 1200 AM TUESDAY...TIDE LEVELS MEASURED AT THE CAPE FEAR
RIVER DOWNTOWN GAGE HAVE FALLEN BELOW 5.5 FT MLLW...THRESHOLD FOR
MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE CAPE FEAR RIVER FROM WILMINGTON SOUTH TO
CAPE FEAR. AN UPDATED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
ENDING TONIGHTS THREAT. WITH TOMORROW MORNINGS FORECAST HIGH TIDE
GAGE READING ALONG THE CAPE FEAR A THREAT TO BREAK MINOR COASTAL
FLOOD THRESHOLDS ONCE AGAIN...THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH NOON TUESDAY TO KEEP PEOPLE ALERT TO THIS
SUCCESSIVE HIGH TIDE FLOOD THREAT.

AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...A LARGE POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALY ON THE LOWER CAPE
FEAR RIVER AROUND +0.75 FEET SHOULD ALLOW THE RIVER TO FLOOD AT HIGH
TIDE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. THE REASONS FOR THIS
ARE ASTRONOMICAL (FULL MOON)...METEOROLOGICAL (RECENT HEAVY RAIN AND
STEADY SOUTH WINDS)...AND NON-METEOROLOGICAL (DEEP DREDGING IN THE
RIVER CHANNEL.)  THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER CAPE FEAR
RIVER WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NEXT TWO HIGH TIDES...10 PM THIS
EVENING AND 1030 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

THE TIDAL ANOMALY MEASURED AT THE MYRTLE BEACH AND WRIGHTSVILLE
BEACH GAUGES APPEARS TO BE DECREASING AS WINDS VEER MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AND WIND STRESS FORCING (EKMAN SPIRAL) PUSHES
LESS WATER UP AGAINST THE SHORELINE. ASSUMING TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN
+0.3 FEET OR LESS WE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW COASTAL FLOODING CRITERIA.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ105>110.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ107.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TRA/DCH






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 1142 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DRAGS MORE
TROPICAL MOISTURE UP ALONG A STALLED FRONT. DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY
ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER UP THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE WEEK. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1100 PM MONDAY...UPDATE CONCERNED WITH RE-ALIGNING THE
CURRENT FLOOD WATCH. BASED ON THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS...THE COLD
FRONT HAS BASICALLY SWEPT ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE ILM CWA
AT THE MOMENT. THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER RDU AT THE MOMENT...WITH
THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH TO LITTLE RIVER INLET...THEN SW
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SC. WITH THE BEST FORCING/LIFT AND
DEEPEST MOISTURE IE. 2+ PWS...ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT.
THIS HAS LEAD TO A RE-STRUCTURE OF THE FLOOD WATCH TO A REDUCTION
TO JUST 3 COUNTIES THAT REMAIN EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...BRUNSWICK
...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER. LATEST POPS AND QPF FIELDS HAVE BEEN
ALSO RE-ALIGNED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEW FLOOD WATCH CONFIGURATION.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS MAY NEED A TWEAK HERE AND THERE...BUT THE
COOL AND DRIER AIR SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT STILL BASICALLY
WELL UPSTREAM TO AFFECT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION................................................
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...THIS UPDATE TO MAINLY DEAL WITH THE TWEAKING
OF THE POPS BASED ON LATEST 88D RADAR TRENDS FROM KLTX AND
SURROUNDING SITES. FOLLOWED BY AN UPDATE TO THE QPF FIELDS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BASED ON LATEST RADAR PCPN TRENDS
AND...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE USING THE LATEST MODEL HRRR FIELDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....................................
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A FRONT STALLED NEAR INTERSTATE 95. THE LOW
APPEARS TO BE LOCATED NEAR DILLON AND SHOULD MOVE TOWARD
FAYETTEVILLE OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS. WHILE THIS WILL REMOVE THE
STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FOCUS FOR SHOWERS...WE STILL
HAVE A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN 2.2 INCHES INLAND TO 2.4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST.
GIVEN COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES THE BULK OF OUR INSTABILITY IS
ELEVATED...500 J/KG INLAND TO NEAR 1000 J/KG AT THE COAST.

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS INTERIOR SE NORTH
CAROLINA AND NEARBY PORTIONS OF INTERIOR NE SOUTH CAROLINA FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN AFTER DARK WILL PROBABLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF OAK ISLAND...ADVECTING BACK ONSHORE IN THE
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. FOR THIS REASON WE WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD
WATCH FROM LUMBERTON AND DILLON EASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHPORT AND
WILMINGTON. SOILS ARE SATURATED OVER MOST OF THE WATCH AREA AND ANY
SUSTAINED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CREATE A FLOODING RISK. WE HAVE
RECEIVED SEVERAL PUBLIC REPORTS VIA FACEBOOK AND PHONE OF 5+ INCHES
OF RAIN MEASURED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW HANOVER COUNTY SO FAR IN
THIS EVENT.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HOW THE EVENT ENDS
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS ARE MUCH FASTER WITH
CLEARING THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP OFF THE COAST THAN ANY OF THE
SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE. (GFS, NAM, ECMWF)  BY 8 PM I WOULD EXPECT MOST OF
THE RAIN TO HAVE ENDED WEST OF I-95 EXCEPT NEAR LUMBERTON...AND BY
MIDNIGHT THE BACK EDGE OF PRECIP WILL PROBABLY BE THROUGH MYRTLE
BEACH AND WHITEVILLE. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL SUNRISE FOR RAIN TO END IN
WILMINGTON HOWEVER AS THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH BECOMES QUITE SLOW.

LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEPARTING NORTHEAST TUE
MORNING WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
THIS SHOULD BRING ABOUT A FAIRLY QUICK END TO ANY LINGER PRECIP TUE
MORNING FOR INLAND SITES. ALONG THE COAST MEASURABLE PRECIP MAY HANG
ON INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SLOWLY EXPANDING SOUTHERN CONUS 5H RIDGE. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TUE. GRADUAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THE NC COAST IS LIKELY TO REMAIN CLOUDY
THROUGH SUNSET. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A MIXED BAG WITH INLAND AREAS
RUNNING WARMER DUE TO BREAKS OF SUN LATER IN THE DAY AND SUBTLE
HEIGHT INCREASES. ALONG THE COAST HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO. CLEARING LATE TUE NIGHT COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF LOW
STRATUS OR FOG JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. LATE CLOUD/FOG WILL HELP KEEP
LOWS NEAR CLIMO TUE NIGHT.

MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON WED AS MID
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO EXPAND EAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP DRY AIR BUILDING IN...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. DEEP DRY AIR ALONG WITH WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVENT DEVELOPMENT OF ANY
MEANINGFUL CONVECTION WED AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE NEAR ZERO.
AFOREMENTIONED NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP HIGHS
ALONG THE COAST A LITTLE COOLER...THOUGH STILL ABOVE CLIMO. TEMPS
WED AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM LOW 90S INLAND SC TO MID 80S ALONG THE
NC COAST. WEAK WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS WED NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE. SOME MOISTURE RETURN ALONG WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW MAY ALLOW DEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATE IN THE PERIOD. LIGHT
RETURN FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOG WILL KEEP LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
EARLY THURS AS RIDGE HOLDS ON ALOFT...BUT BY LATE THURS INTO
FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS. SHOULD REMAIN
DRY FOR THURS AT LEAST OVER MOST OF AREA BUT BY THURS NIGHT INTO
FRI...EXPECT INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. PCP WATER VALUES AS LOW AS 1.4 INCHES
THURS MORNING WILL RAMP UP GREATER THAN 2 INCHES JUST AHEAD AND
ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH FRI. LOOKS LIKE FRONT
WILL GET HUNG UP OVER THE COAST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LEAVING A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THIS MAINTAINS A SW FLOW
ALOFT RUNNING PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND MAY KEEP FRONT HUNG UP
OVER OR NEARBY AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A MORE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE MAY REACH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO GIVE FRONT A PUSH OFF
SHORE BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. OVERALL EXPECT CLOUDS AND
PCP IN FORECAST FOR MUCH OF FRI AND SATURDAY WITH SOME CLEARING BY
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN TERMS OF HOW FAR SOUTH
THE FRONT WILL INITIALLY MAKE IT BEFORE STALLING. TOUGH WIND
FORECAST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT THURS INTO FRI BUT
MAY SEE WINDS BECOME VARIABLE OR NORTH AS FRONT REACHES INTO AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.

EXPECT TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO ON THURS...BUT BY FRI INTO SATURDAY
CLOUDS AND SHWRS WILL AFFECT THE TEMPS AND THEN SOME COOLER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE IN BEHIND FRONT LATER ON SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...KEEPING TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WILL SEE SOME READINGS IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS INLAND WITH
COMBINATION OF COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE N-NW AND CLOUDS AND PCP
OVER THE AREA LATE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THE COLD FRONT BISECTS OUR CWA THIS EVENING. LIGHT NORTH
WINDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAIL INLAND...WHILE MORE SHOWERS ARE
APPROACHING THE COASTAL TERMS WHERE WINDS ARE STILL SOUTHWESTERLY.
WILL MAINTAIN -SHRA FOR KILM/KCRE/KMYR EARLY TONIGHT...BUT PCPN WILL
DIMINISH FROM SW TO NE BY MIDNIGHT OR SO AS THE WEAK LOW CONTINUES
MOVING NORTHEAST. THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE
POST-FRONTAL MVFR/IFR CIGS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENTLY...
CIGS ARE HOVERING AROUND 1KFT INLAND BEHIND THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH CIGS
MAY BOUNCE AROUND BETWEEN MVFR/IFR LEVELS THIS EVENING...EXPECT MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP INTO EARLY TUE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR IFR IS AT KLBT AND KFLO. IFR STRATUS ALONG THE COAST MAY BE MORE
TEMPO IN NATURE AROUND DAYBREAK. MVFR CIGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...BUT DRIER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD
IMPROVE CONDITIONS TO VFR BY TUE AFTN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT NEARS THE
CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1115 PM MONDAY...SFC COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
SC COAST AT THE MOMENT...WITH WIND DIRECTIONS AT SW-NW. WILL TAKE
A SURGE OR PUSH FOR THE COLD FRONT ITSELF TO REALLY MAKE SOME
PROGRESS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT...WILL HOLD ONTO A
SOLID S-SW 15 KT WIND FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH...AND SW-WSW
10-15 KT ACROSS THE SC WATERS SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET. THE SFC
PG ACROSS THE ILM WATERS WILL BE RELAXING AS THE SFC LOW PULLS
FURTHER AWAY TO THE NE OVERNIGHT INTO TUE. THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS AT
2 TO 4 FEET IN THE NEAR TERM WILL REMAIN A FUNCTION OF LOCAL WIND
DRIVEN WAVE PRODUCTION...WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AT 4 TO 6 SECONDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.............................................
AS OF 815 PM MONDAY...VERY LITTLE TWEAKING NEEDED TO THE CURRENT
WIND AND SIG. SEAS OVERNIGHT FORECAST. LATEST WIND/SEAS BUOY AND
COASTAL OBS AT OR JUST BELOW BORDERLINE SCEC THRESHOLDS. A
CONTINUED VERY SLOW DIMINISHING TREND TO BOTH WINDS/SIG. SEAS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO TUE AS THE LOW
LIFTS NE OF THE WATERS...TAKING WITH IT THE TIGHTER SFC PG THATS
PRODUCING THOSE HIER WINDS. HAVE TONED DOWN WINDS TO S-SW AROUND
15 KT AND SIGNIFICANT SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE WITH DOMINANT
PERIODS AT 5 TO 6 SECONDS INDICATIVE OF WIND DRIVEN WAVES HAVING
MORE INFLUENCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..................................
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT NEAR INTERSTATE 95 AND SHOULD PUSH INTO
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL DRAG THE FRONT
DOWN TOWARD THE COAST WITH WINDS VEERING MORE WESTERLY LATE ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL INTENSITY HAS REALLY
DIMINISHED THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND AFFECT
THE AREA OVERNIGHT...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE CAPE FEAR WATERS TOWARD
AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE INLAND LOW INCREASED TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLIER TODAY WITH 25 KNOT GUSTS.
WIND SPEEDS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST HAVE PEAKED AND SHOULD
DIMINISH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALONG THE NC COAST THE
STRONGEST SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP SHORTLY BUT WILL
PROBABLY ONLY EXCEED 15 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...EXITING LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE
STALLED FRONT OFF THE COAST DURING TUE. SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TUE AND
TUE NIGHT. GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK AND THE LACK OF ANY COLD PUSH WILL
KEEP WIND SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS BOTH PRE AND POST FRONT. ELONGATED
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WED WITH WINDS VEERING TO
NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY. LATE IN THE DAY SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH NORTHERLY FLOW UNDER 10 KT BECOMING LIGHT AND HIGHLY
VARIABLE. WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT WILL CARRY
OVER FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PERIOD BUT WILL QUICKLY DROP TO 2 TO
3 FT TUE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND OFFSHORE FLOW.
FURTHER REDUCTION IN SEAS IS ANTICIPATED ON WED.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THURS
BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH AND COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE
CAROLINAS...BUT OVERALL EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL REACH BEFORE
STALLING AND THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WINDS SHOULD COME AROUND TO
THE NE TO N AS FRONT GETS A PUSH SOUTHWARD. WILL SHOW A NORTHERLY
SURGE UP TO 15 KTS BY SUN MORNING BUT THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT ON HOW
FAR SOUTH THE COLD FRONT MAKES IT AND HOW MUCH COLD AIR BLEEDS SOUTH
INTO THE WATERS. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT MAY INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FT IN
INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW BY SATURDAY AND MAY SEE A BIT MORE OF AN
INCREASE BY SUNDAY IN COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...A LARGE POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALY ON THE LOWER CAPE
FEAR RIVER AROUND +0.75 FEET SHOULD ALLOW THE RIVER TO FLOOD AT HIGH
TIDE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. THE REASONS FOR THIS
ARE ASTRONOMICAL (FULL MOON)...METEOROLOGICAL (RECENT HEAVY RAIN AND
STEADY SOUTH WINDS)...AND NON-METEOROLOGICAL (DEEP DREDGING IN THE
RIVER CHANNEL.)  THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER CAPE FEAR
RIVER WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NEXT TWO HIGH TIDES...10 PM THIS
EVENING AND 1030 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

THE TIDAL ANOMALY MEASURED AT THE MYRTLE BEACH AND WRIGHTSVILLE
BEACH GAUGES APPEARS TO BE DECREASING AS WINDS VEER MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AND WIND STRESS FORCING (EKMAN SPIRAL) PUSHES
LESS WATER UP AGAINST THE SHORELINE. ASSUMING TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN
+0.3 FEET OR LESS WE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW COASTAL FLOODING CRITERIA.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ105>110.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ107.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TRA







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 839 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DRAGS MORE
TROPICAL MOISTURE UP ALONG A STALLED FRONT. DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY
ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER UP THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE WEEK. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...THIS UPDATE TO MAINLY DEAL WITH THE TWEAKING
OF THE POPS BASED ON LATEST 88D RADAR TRENDS FROM KLTX AND
SURROUNDING SITES. FOLLOWED BY AN UPDATE TO THE QPF FIELDS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BASED ON LATEST RADAR PCPN TRENDS
AND...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE USING THE LATEST MODEL HRRR FIELDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...............................................
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A FRONT STALLED NEAR INTERSTATE 95. THE LOW
APPEARS TO BE LOCATED NEAR DILLON AND SHOULD MOVE TOWARD
FAYETTEVILLE OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS. WHILE THIS WILL REMOVE THE
STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FOCUS FOR SHOWERS...WE STILL
HAVE A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN 2.2 INCHES INLAND TO 2.4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST.
GIVEN COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES THE BULK OF OUR INSTABILITY IS
ELEVATED...500 J/KG INLAND TO NEAR 1000 J/KG AT THE COAST.

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS INTERIOR SE NORTH
CAROLINA AND NEARBY PORTIONS OF INTERIOR NE SOUTH CAROLINA FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN AFTER DARK WILL PROBABLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF OAK ISLAND...ADVECTING BACK ONSHORE IN THE
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. FOR THIS REASON WE WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD
WATCH FROM LUMBERTON AND DILLON EASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHPORT AND
WILMINGTON. SOILS ARE SATURATED OVER MOST OF THE WATCH AREA AND ANY
SUSTAINED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CREATE A FLOODING RISK. WE HAVE
RECEIVED SEVERAL PUBLIC REPORTS VIA FACEBOOK AND PHONE OF 5+ INCHES
OF RAIN MEASURED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW HANOVER COUNTY SO FAR IN
THIS EVENT.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HOW THE EVENT ENDS
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS ARE MUCH FASTER WITH
CLEARING THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP OFF THE COAST THAN ANY OF THE
SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE. (GFS, NAM, ECMWF)  BY 8 PM I WOULD EXPECT MOST OF
THE RAIN TO HAVE ENDED WEST OF I-95 EXCEPT NEAR LUMBERTON...AND BY
MIDNIGHT THE BACK EDGE OF PRECIP WILL PROBABLY BE THROUGH MYRTLE
BEACH AND WHITEVILLE. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL SUNRISE FOR RAIN TO END IN
WILMINGTON HOWEVER AS THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH BECOMES QUITE SLOW.

LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEPARTING NORTHEAST TUE
MORNING WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
THIS SHOULD BRING ABOUT A FAIRLY QUICK END TO ANY LINGER PRECIP TUE
MORNING FOR INLAND SITES. ALONG THE COAST MEASURABLE PRECIP MAY HANG
ON INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SLOWLY EXPANDING SOUTHERN CONUS 5H RIDGE. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TUE. GRADUAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THE NC COAST IS LIKELY TO REMAIN CLOUDY
THROUGH SUNSET. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A MIXED BAG WITH INLAND AREAS
RUNNING WARMER DUE TO BREAKS OF SUN LATER IN THE DAY AND SUBTLE
HEIGHT INCREASES. ALONG THE COAST HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO. CLEARING LATE TUE NIGHT COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF LOW
STRATUS OR FOG JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. LATE CLOUD/FOG WILL HELP KEEP
LOWS NEAR CLIMO TUE NIGHT.

MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON WED AS MID
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO EXPAND EAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP DRY AIR BUILDING IN...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. DEEP DRY AIR ALONG WITH WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVENT DEVELOPMENT OF ANY
MEANINGFUL CONVECTION WED AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE NEAR ZERO.
AFOREMENTIONED NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP HIGHS
ALONG THE COAST A LITTLE COOLER...THOUGH STILL ABOVE CLIMO. TEMPS
WED AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM LOW 90S INLAND SC TO MID 80S ALONG THE
NC COAST. WEAK WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS WED NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE. SOME MOISTURE RETURN ALONG WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW MAY ALLOW DEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATE IN THE PERIOD. LIGHT
RETURN FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOG WILL KEEP LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
EARLY THURS AS RIDGE HOLDS ON ALOFT...BUT BY LATE THURS INTO
FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS. SHOULD REMAIN
DRY FOR THURS AT LEAST OVER MOST OF AREA BUT BY THURS NIGHT INTO
FRI...EXPECT INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. PCP WATER VALUES AS LOW AS 1.4 INCHES
THURS MORNING WILL RAMP UP GREATER THAN 2 INCHES JUST AHEAD AND
ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH FRI. LOOKS LIKE FRONT
WILL GET HUNG UP OVER THE COAST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LEAVING A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THIS MAINTAINS A SW FLOW
ALOFT RUNNING PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND MAY KEEP FRONT HUNG UP
OVER OR NEARBY AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A MORE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE MAY REACH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO GIVE FRONT A PUSH OFF
SHORE BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. OVERALL EXPECT CLOUDS AND
PCP IN FORECAST FOR MUCH OF FRI AND SATURDAY WITH SOME CLEARING BY
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN TERMS OF HOW FAR SOUTH
THE FRONT WILL INITIALLY MAKE IT BEFORE STALLING. TOUGH WIND
FORECAST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT THURS INTO FRI BUT
MAY SEE WINDS BECOME VARIABLE OR NORTH AS FRONT REACHES INTO AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.

EXPECT TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO ON THURS...BUT BY FRI INTO SATURDAY
CLOUDS AND SHWRS WILL AFFECT THE TEMPS AND THEN SOME COOLER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE IN BEHIND FRONT LATER ON SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...KEEPING TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WILL SEE SOME READINGS IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS INLAND WITH
COMBINATION OF COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE N-NW AND CLOUDS AND PCP
OVER THE AREA LATE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THE COLD FRONT BISECTS OUR CWA THIS EVENING. LIGHT NORTH
WINDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAIL INLAND...WHILE MORE SHOWERS ARE
APPROACHING THE COASTAL TERMS WHERE WINDS ARE STILL SOUTHWESTERLY.
WILL MAINTAIN -SHRA FOR KILM/KCRE/KMYR EARLY TONIGHT...BUT PCPN WILL
DIMINISH FROM SW TO NE BY MIDNIGHT OR SO AS THE WEAK LOW CONTINUES
MOVING NORTHEAST. THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE
POST-FRONTAL MVFR/IFR CIGS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENTLY...
CIGS ARE HOVERING AROUND 1KFT INLAND BEHIND THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH CIGS
MAY BOUNCE AROUND BETWEEN MVFR/IFR LEVELS THIS EVENING...EXPECT MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP INTO EARLY TUE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR IFR IS AT KLBT AND KFLO. IFR STRATUS ALONG THE COAST MAY BE MORE
TEMPO IN NATURE AROUND DAYBREAK. MVFR CIGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...BUT DRIER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD
IMPROVE CONDITIONS TO VFR BY TUE AFTN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT NEARS THE
CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 815 PM MONDAY...VERY LITTLE TWEAKING NEEDED TO THE CURRENT
WIND AND SIG. SEAS OVERNIGHT FORECAST. LATEST WIND/SEAS BUOY AND
COASTAL OBS AT OR JUST BELOW BORDERLINE SCEC THRESHOLDS. A
CONTINUED VERY SLOW DIMINISHING TREND TO BOTH WINDS/SIG. SEAS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO TUE AS THE LOW
LIFTS NE OF THE WATERS...TAKING WITH IT THE TIGHTER SFC PG THATS
PRODUCING THOSE HIER WINDS. HAVE TONED DOWN WINDS TO S-SW AROUND
15 KT AND SIGNIFICANT SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE WITH DOMINANT
PERIODS AT 5 TO 6 SECONDS INDICATIVE OF WIND DRIVEN WAVES HAVING
MORE INFLUENCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.............................................
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT NEAR INTERSTATE 95 AND SHOULD PUSH INTO
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL DRAG THE FRONT
DOWN TOWARD THE COAST WITH WINDS VEERING MORE WESTERLY LATE ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL INTENSITY HAS REALLY
DIMINISHED THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND AFFECT
THE AREA OVERNIGHT...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE CAPE FEAR WATERS TOWARD
AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE INLAND LOW INCREASED TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLIER TODAY WITH 25 KNOT GUSTS.
WIND SPEEDS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST HAVE PEAKED AND SHOULD
DIMINISH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALONG THE NC COAST THE
STRONGEST SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP SHORTLY BUT WILL
PROBABLY ONLY EXCEED 15 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...EXITING LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE
STALLED FRONT OFF THE COAST DURING TUE. SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TUE AND
TUE NIGHT. GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK AND THE LACK OF ANY COLD PUSH WILL
KEEP WIND SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS BOTH PRE AND POST FRONT. ELONGATED
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WED WITH WINDS VEERING TO
NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY. LATE IN THE DAY SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH NORTHERLY FLOW UNDER 10 KT BECOMING LIGHT AND HIGHLY
VARIABLE. WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT WILL CARRY
OVER FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PERIOD BUT WILL QUICKLY DROP TO 2 TO
3 FT TUE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND OFFSHORE FLOW.
FURTHER REDUCTION IN SEAS IS ANTICIPATED ON WED.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THURS
BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH AND COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE
CAROLINAS...BUT OVERALL EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL REACH BEFORE
STALLING AND THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WINDS SHOULD COME AROUND TO
THE NE TO N AS FRONT GETS A PUSH SOUTHWARD. WILL SHOW A NORTHERLY
SURGE UP TO 15 KTS BY SUN MORNING BUT THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT ON HOW
FAR SOUTH THE COLD FRONT MAKES IT AND HOW MUCH COLD AIR BLEEDS SOUTH
INTO THE WATERS. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT MAY INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FT IN
INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW BY SATURDAY AND MAY SEE A BIT MORE OF AN
INCREASE BY SUNDAY IN COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...A LARGE POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALY ON THE LOWER CAPE
FEAR RIVER AROUND +0.75 FEET SHOULD ALLOW THE RIVER TO FLOOD AT HIGH
TIDE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. THE REASONS FOR THIS
ARE ASTRONOMICAL (FULL MOON)...METEOROLOGICAL (RECENT HEAVY RAIN AND
STEADY SOUTH WINDS)...AND NON-METEOROLOGICAL (DEEP DREDGING IN THE
RIVER CHANNEL.)  THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER CAPE FEAR
RIVER WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NEXT TWO HIGH TIDES...10 PM THIS
EVENING AND 1030 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

THE TIDAL ANOMALY MEASURED AT THE MYRTLE BEACH AND WRIGHTSVILLE
BEACH GAUGES APPEARS TO BE DECREASING AS WINDS VEER MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AND WIND STRESS FORCING (EKMAN SPIRAL) PUSHES
LESS WATER UP AGAINST THE SHORELINE. ASSUMING TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN
+0.3 FEET OR LESS WE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW COASTAL FLOODING CRITERIA.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR SCZ024.

NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ087.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ096-099-105>110.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ107.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TRA






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 733 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DRAGS MORE
TROPICAL MOISTURE UP ALONG A STALLED FRONT. DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY
ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER UP THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE WEEK. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A FRONT STALLED NEAR INTERSTATE 95. THE LOW
APPEARS TO BE LOCATED NEAR DILLON AND SHOULD MOVE TOWARD
FAYETTEVILLE OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS. WHILE THIS WILL REMOVE THE
STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FOCUS FOR SHOWERS...WE STILL
HAVE A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN 2.2 INCHES INLAND TO 2.4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST.
GIVEN COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES THE BULK OF OUR INSTABILITY IS
ELEVATED...500 J/KG INLAND TO NEAR 1000 J/KG AT THE COAST.

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS INTERIOR SE NORTH
CAROLINA AND NEARBY PORTIONS OF INTERIOR NE SOUTH CAROLINA FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN AFTER DARK WILL PROBABLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF OAK ISLAND...ADVECTING BACK ONSHORE IN THE
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. FOR THIS REASON WE WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD
WATCH FROM LUMBERTON AND DILLON EASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHPORT AND
WILMINGTON. SOILS ARE SATURATED OVER MOST OF THE WATCH AREA AND ANY
SUSTAINED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CREATE A FLOODING RISK. WE HAVE
RECEIVED SEVERAL PUBLIC REPORTS VIA FACEBOOK AND PHONE OF 5+ INCHES
OF RAIN MEASURED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW HANOVER COUNTY SO FAR IN
THIS EVENT.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HOW THE EVENT ENDS
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS ARE MUCH FASTER WITH
CLEARING THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP OFF THE COAST THAN ANY OF THE
SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE. (GFS, NAM, ECMWF)  BY 8 PM I WOULD EXPECT MOST OF
THE RAIN TO HAVE ENDED WEST OF I-95 EXCEPT NEAR LUMBERTON...AND BY
MIDNIGHT THE BACK EDGE OF PRECIP WILL PROBABLY BE THROUGH MYRTLE
BEACH AND WHITEVILLE. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL SUNRISE FOR RAIN TO END IN
WILMINGTON HOWEVER AS THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH BECOMES QUITE SLOW.

LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEPARTING NORTHEAST TUE
MORNING WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
THIS SHOULD BRING ABOUT A FAIRLY QUICK END TO ANY LINGER PRECIP TUE
MORNING FOR INLAND SITES. ALONG THE COAST MEASURABLE PRECIP MAY HANG
ON INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SLOWLY EXPANDING SOUTHERN CONUS 5H RIDGE. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TUE. GRADUAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THE NC COAST IS LIKELY TO REMAIN CLOUDY
THROUGH SUNSET. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A MIXED BAG WITH INLAND AREAS
RUNNING WARMER DUE TO BREAKS OF SUN LATER IN THE DAY AND SUBTLE
HEIGHT INCREASES. ALONG THE COAST HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO. CLEARING LATE TUE NIGHT COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF LOW
STRATUS OR FOG JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. LATE CLOUD/FOG WILL HELP KEEP
LOWS NEAR CLIMO TUE NIGHT.

MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON WED AS MID
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO EXPAND EAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP DRY AIR BUILDING IN...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. DEEP DRY AIR ALONG WITH WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVENT DEVELOPMENT OF ANY
MEANINGFUL CONVECTION WED AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE NEAR ZERO.
AFOREMENTIONED NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP HIGHS
ALONG THE COAST A LITTLE COOLER...THOUGH STILL ABOVE CLIMO. TEMPS
WED AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM LOW 90S INLAND SC TO MID 80S ALONG THE
NC COAST. WEAK WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS WED NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE. SOME MOISTURE RETURN ALONG WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW MAY ALLOW DEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATE IN THE PERIOD. LIGHT
RETURN FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOG WILL KEEP LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
EARLY THURS AS RIDGE HOLDS ON ALOFT...BUT BY LATE THURS INTO
FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS. SHOULD REMAIN
DRY FOR THURS AT LEAST OVER MOST OF AREA BUT BY THURS NIGHT INTO
FRI...EXPECT INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. PCP WATER VALUES AS LOW AS 1.4 INCHES
THURS MORNING WILL RAMP UP GREATER THAN 2 INCHES JUST AHEAD AND
ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH FRI. LOOKS LIKE FRONT
WILL GET HUNG UP OVER THE COAST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LEAVING A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THIS MAINTAINS A SW FLOW
ALOFT RUNNING PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND MAY KEEP FRONT HUNG UP
OVER OR NEARBY AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A MORE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE MAY REACH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO GIVE FRONT A PUSH OFF
SHORE BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. OVERALL EXPECT CLOUDS AND
PCP IN FORECAST FOR MUCH OF FRI AND SATURDAY WITH SOME CLEARING BY
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN TERMS OF HOW FAR SOUTH
THE FRONT WILL INITIALLY MAKE IT BEFORE STALLING. TOUGH WIND
FORECAST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT THURS INTO FRI BUT
MAY SEE WINDS BECOME VARIABLE OR NORTH AS FRONT REACHES INTO AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.

EXPECT TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO ON THURS...BUT BY FRI INTO SATURDAY
CLOUDS AND SHWRS WILL AFFECT THE TEMPS AND THEN SOME COOLER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE IN BEHIND FRONT LATER ON SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...KEEPING TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WILL SEE SOME READINGS IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS INLAND WITH
COMBINATION OF COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE N-NW AND CLOUDS AND PCP
OVER THE AREA LATE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THE COLD FRONT BISECTS OUR CWA THIS EVENING. LIGHT NORTH
WINDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAIL INLAND...WHILE MORE SHOWERS ARE
APPROACHING THE COASTAL TERMS WHERE WINDS ARE STILL SOUTHWESTERLY.
WILL MAINTAIN -SHRA FOR KILM/KCRE/KMYR EARLY TONIGHT...BUT PCPN WILL
DIMINISH FROM SW TO NE BY MIDNIGHT OR SO AS THE WEAK LOW CONTINUES
MOVING NORTHEAST. THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE
POST-FRONTAL MVFR/IFR CIGS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENTLY...
CIGS ARE HOVERING AROUND 1KFT INLAND BEHIND THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH CIGS
MAY BOUNCE AROUND BETWEEN MVFR/IFR LEVELS THIS EVENING...EXPECT MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP INTO EARLY TUE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR IFR IS AT KLBT AND KFLO. IFR STRATUS ALONG THE COAST MAY BE MORE
TEMPO IN NATURE AROUND DAYBREAK. MVFR CIGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...BUT DRIER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD
IMPROVE CONDITIONS TO VFR BY TUE AFTN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT NEARS THE
CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT NEAR INTERSTATE 95 AND SHOULD PUSH INTO
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL DRAG THE FRONT
DOWN TOWARD THE COAST WITH WINDS VEERING MORE WESTERLY LATE ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL INTENSITY HAS REALLY
DIMINISHED THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND AFFECT
THE AREA OVERNIGHT...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE CAPE FEAR WATERS TOWARD
AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE INLAND LOW INCREASED TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLIER TODAY WITH 25 KNOT GUSTS.
WIND SPEEDS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST HAVE PEAKED AND SHOULD
DIMINISH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALONG THE NC COAST THE
STRONGEST SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP SHORTLY BUT WILL
PROBABLY ONLY EXCEED 15 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...EXITING LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE
STALLED FRONT OFF THE COAST DURING TUE. SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TUE AND
TUE NIGHT. GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK AND THE LACK OF ANY COLD PUSH WILL
KEEP WIND SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS BOTH PRE AND POST FRONT. ELONGATED
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WED WITH WINDS VEERING TO
NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY. LATE IN THE DAY SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH NORTHERLY FLOW UNDER 10 KT BECOMING LIGHT AND HIGHLY
VARIABLE. WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT WILL CARRY
OVER FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PERIOD BUT WILL QUICKLY DROP TO 2 TO
3 FT TUE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND OFFSHORE FLOW.
FURTHER REDUCTION IN SEAS IS ANTICIPATED ON WED.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THURS
BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH AND COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE
CAROLINAS....BUT OVERALL EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL REACH BEFORE
STALLING AND THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WINDS SHOULD COME AROUND TO
THE NE TO N AS FRONT GETS A PUSH SOUTHWARD. WILL SHOW A NORTHERLY
SURGE UP TO 15 KTS BY SUN MORNING BUT THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT ON HOW
FAR SOUTH THE COLD FRONT MAKES IT AND HOW MUCH COLD AIR BLEEDS SOUTH
INTO THE WATERS. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT MAY INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FT IN
INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW BY SATURDAY AND MAY SEE A BIT MORE OF AN
INCREASE BY SUNDAY IN COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...A LARGE POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALY ON THE LOWER CAPE
FEAR RIVER AROUND +0.75 FEET SHOULD ALLOW THE RIVER TO FLOOD AT HIGH
TIDE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. THE REASONS FOR THIS
ARE ASTRONOMICAL (FULL MOON)...METEOROLOGICAL (RECENT HEAVY RAIN AND
STEADY SOUTH WINDS)...AND NON-METEOROLOGICAL (DEEP DREDGING IN THE
RIVER CHANNEL.)  THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER CAPE FEAR
RIVER WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NEXT TWO HIGH TIDES...10 PM THIS
EVENING AND 1030 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

THE TIDAL ANOMALY MEASURED AT THE MYRTLE BEACH AND WRIGHTSVILLE
BEACH GAUGES APPEARS TO BE DECREASING AS WINDS VEER MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AND WIND STRESS FORCING (EKMAN SPIRAL) PUSHES
LESS WATER UP AGAINST THE SHORELINE. ASSUMING TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN
+0.3 FEET OR LESS WE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW COASTAL FLOODING CRITERIA.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR SCZ024.

NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ087.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NCZ096-099-105>110.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     TUESDAY FOR NCZ107.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TRA









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

 639 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
TUESDAY WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AS IT
DRIFTS OFF THE COAST. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM SUNDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY BISECTING THE CWA
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. LATEST HRRR AND RUC SHOWS THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN OVER OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES WHERE RADAR ESTIMATES UPWARDS OF 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN
PORTIONS OF PITT...MARTIN AND HYDE COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
ARE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ARE LOCATED. TRAINING OF
CELLS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THINK COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT WITH LOSS OF
HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MADE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE FORECAST WITH TEMPS DROPPED A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON CURRENT
READINGS AND POPS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON RADAR COVERAGE.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT MAINLY UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MODEL TRENDS AND CONCENSUS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH WESTWARD ALONG A DEVELOPING WEDGE FRONT ON
MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE CATEGORICAL POPS INLAND AND TAPER BACK
SLIGHTLY TO HIGH LIKELY POPS NEAR THE COAST. THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA AND MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ISSUE
FLOOD ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS IF HEAVIER/STEADIER RAIN FOCUSES IN
ONE PARTICULAR AREA. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUN...AN UNSETTLED/WET PERIOD EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TUE. THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE AREA
MON NIGHT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY
TUES INTO TUES NIGHT. THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
OCCASIONAL HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
WITH THE REGION LOCATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER JET
AND PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY PUSHING THRU THE LOW AMPLITUDE MID
LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES. MODEL PREFERENCES CONTINUE TO
SIDE WITH A GFE/ECMWF BLEND AS THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEEPER
AND FASTER BIAS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA AND AS
SUCH HAVE INCREASED POPS MON NIGHT INTO TUES WITH A SLOWER
DEPARTURE OF THE LOW. FLOODING CONCERNS MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY
TUES WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE
POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HIGH
PWATS OF 2 TO 2.25 INCHES. HIGHS WILL BE HELD DOWN BY CLOUDS AND
PRECIP WITH MAX TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TUE.

THE LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT NE OF THE REGION TUES NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT FINALLY MOVING OFFSHORE WED...ALLOWING RIDGING/DEEP LAYER
DRYING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA MIDWEEK. ONLY ISOLATED SEA BREEZE
TYPE DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED WED/THU AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE
SUPPRESSES MOST CONVECTION. RISING THICKNESS WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPS MODERATING TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU...GENERALLY
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 80S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK BUT
THE USUAL TIMING ISSUES CONTINUE REGARDING THE APPROACH AND
EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. THERE IS ALMOST A 24 HR DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF IN REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA LEADING TO BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS LATE IN THE WEEK. PRECIP COULD
BEGIN AS EARLY AS LATE THURS NIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT...THEN TAPER OFF FROM N TO S SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM SUNDAY...VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS.
CURRENTLY...ONLY KPGV REPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT AS
PRECIPITATION AGAIN APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT PERIODS OF
MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR FOR THE REMAINING SITES THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS INTO OVERNIGHT. AGAIN MONDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE
VARIABLE BUT MVFR IS LIKELY TO PREDOMINATE GIVEN WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUN...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING
PERIODS OF MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS DURING AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PERIOD INTO TUE NIGHT AS A SFC FRONT STALLS OVER AND LOW PRES
LIFTS ACROSS REGION. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR RADIATION FOG TUE
NIGHT IF SKIES SUFFICIENTLY CLEAR AS LIGHT WINDS WILL PRODUCE A
DECENT FOG SETUP ESPECIALLY WITH A SATURATED GROUND. GRADUAL
DRYING IS EXPECTED WED AND THURS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA
WITH PRED VFR CONDITIONS AND ONLY ISOL DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION...HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS LINGERING INTO
WED WITH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 PM SUNDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY
OFF THE SOUTH COAST AS OF 2230Z AND HRRR/RAP MODELS SHOW ITS
SHOULD BE OFFSHORE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SPEEDS CONTINUE AT
15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES NE
ALONG THE BNDRY LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND MAY REACH 15-20 KT
MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS. SEAS BUILD 3-5
FT IN RESPONSE TO THE WIND INCREASE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUN...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS
EASTERN NC WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTING ALONG THE
FRONT MON NIGHT INTO WED. BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE
FORECAST AS MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE LOW. PREFERRED MODELS ARE A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF
WHICH IS SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THE LOW AND THE FORECAST GENERALLY
FOLLOWS THIS TREND WITH WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT. IF THE NAM ENDS UP
VERIFYING WINDS COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER...AND CURRENTLY
SHOWS WINDS AS HIGH AS 20-30 KT AHEAD OF THE LOW MON NIGHT. USED A
BLEND OF THE NWPS AND WAVEWATCH III WITH SEAS PRIMARILY AROUND 3-5
FT...HOWEVER IF THE NAM VERIFIES HIGHER SEAS WILL BE LIKELY. THE
LOW TRACKS OFF THE NC COAST WED WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT NW AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAK ALONG THE COAST. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10KT WILL CONTINUE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...BECOMING
S/SW AGAIN 10-15KT BY LATE THU AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...BTC/SK
AVIATION...CTC/SK/BM
MARINE...CTC/BTC/SK






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 143 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT WET CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY AS WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL OCCASIONALLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS IN RESPONSE TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST AND
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING UP ALONG THE FRONT. THE LOW
WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WARMING AND DRYING TREND MID AND LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1100 PM SATURDAY...HAVE MASSAGED THE POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS
UPDATE...WITH AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF ONSHORE MOVING CONVECTION.
GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POP CATEGORIES FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY
DAYBREAK SUN...LOWERING AS ONE PROGRESSES INLAND. THE TROPICAL
REGIME WARRANTS A SLIGHT TWEAK UPWARDS OF THE SFC DEWPOINTS BASED
ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A NON-FRONTAL LOW OVER EASTERN GEORGIA AND
SOUTHERNMOST SOUTH CAROLINA WILL HELP ADVECT IN A RICH TROPICAL
AIRMASS INLAND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 2.0 TO 2.3 INCHES.
OFFSHORE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS SHOULD SWEEP ONSHORE SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE GRAND STRAND AND CAPE FEAR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HEATING NUDGING THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS & STORMS INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS WILL SLIP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...INTERCEPTING THE FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND STALLING
ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN I-95 AND THE COAST. THIS IS A GOOD SETUP FOR
SHOWERY WEATHER WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN...AND FORECAST POPS
SUNDAY RANGE FROM 60-80 PERCENT.

THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOW IS BEING SUSTAINED AT LEAST IN PART BY
CONVECTIVE PROCESSES. THE CYCLONIC SWIRL EXTENDS UP THROUGH 500 MB
WITH A RIDGE PRESENT UP AT 200/300 MB. WHILE THE ODDS FAVOR THIS
SYSTEM NOT INTENSIFYING INTO A NAMED TROPICAL CYCLONE (THE CENTER
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INLAND) IT MAY BRING WEATHER REMINISCENT TO
THAT OF A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION. WAVES OF SHOWERS...SOME
HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
AS THE COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
MONDAY...THE LOW SHOULD LINK UP WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND BEGIN TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD...FINALLY REACHING SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
MONDAY NIGHT AND ACCELERATING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD SPELL AN END TO THE SHOWERY WEATHER AND SHOULD PUSH
THE FRONT OFF THE COAST.

FROM AN AREAL STANDPOINT WE ARE EXPECTING AS MUCH AS 2.5 INCHES OF
RAIN ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH 1.0 TO 1.7
INCHES NEAR/WEST OF I-95. ISOLATED AREAS COULD REALISTICALLY PICK
UP 5 TO 7 INCHES. THE 12Z NAM WAS AN OUTLIER VERSUS THE GFS/ECMWF
WITH REGARDS TO HOW MUCH THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
WIND/ADVECTION FIELDS INTENSIFY...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SHOULD
CONFIDENCE GROW THAT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR A FLOOD WATCH
MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA.

DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES WILL BE CONSTRICTED BY ALL THE CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION...PARTICULARLY ON MONDAY WHEN A SOLID OVERCAST
MAY PERSIST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY WEST OF THE STALLED
FRONT. MOS CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE -- EXCEPT FOR
HIGHS MONDAY WHERE I HAVE TRIMMED UP TO FIVE DEGREES OFF WEST OF
THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE CAROLINA
COAST ALONG A LINGERING COLD FRONT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND IT THROUGH TUESDAY. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS OR SHOWERS TUES
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH LATE TUES INTO WED AS DRY AIR MOVES IN ABOVE
H85. PCP WATER VALUES UP CLOSE TO 2 INCHES EARLY TUES WILL DROP
DOWN TO 1.5 INCHES BY TUES EVE AND EVEN FURTHER BY WED MORNING.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN AT THE SURFACE WHILE RIDGE IN THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS BUILDS BACK UP THROUGH THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. MAY INCLUDE
A VERY LOW END CHC OF SHWRS ON WED AND THURS BUT OVERALL EXPECT
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH SOME LOCALIZED CU DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLY
A STRAY SHWR. BY LATE THURS INTO FRI CHC OF PCP WILL INCREASE AS
RIDGE ALOFT GETS SUPPRESSED FARTHER SOUTH AS A SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO
DIG DOWN AS IT RIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS BY FRI INTO SATURDAY WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD SHWR AND TSTMS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON TUES IN LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHWRS WILL WARM UP
AGAIN THROUGH MID WEEK AS H5 HEIGHTS RISE WITH BUILDING RIDGE.
EXPECT TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ON TUES WILL BE BACK UP AROUND 90 OR SO
BY THURS AND FRI. BY SATURDAY CLOUDS AND SHWRS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SHOWERS OFFSHORE ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE...SO HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH/TEMPO -SHRA FOR ALL COASTAL TERMS THIS MORNING. CIGS
WILL LIKELY BOUNCE AROUND BETWEEN MVFR/VFR AT THESE SITES AS WELL.
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT SHOULD
LIMIT FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL FOR KFLO/KLBT...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AROUND DAYBREAK. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AS MOIST TROPICAL AIR STREAMS ONSHORE AND IS
LIFTED BY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN LOCALLY HEAVIER SHOWERS...BUT STILL TOO EARLY TO
PINPOINT THE TIMING OF THESE RESTRICTIONS. EXPECT SCT/BKN 2KFT
STRATOCU WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL...WITH MVFR CIGS
MOST LIKELY ALONG THE COAST WITH THE HEAVIER PCPN. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
MOVES UP THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KT ALONG
THE COAST WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. INLAND...
EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AFTER 00Z MON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS THROUGH MONDAY. VFR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1115 PM SATURDAY...BORDERLINE SCEC CONDITIONS REMAIN AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH IT THRU 600 PM SUNDAY. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT WIND-WISE WITH RESULTING SEAS FOLLOWING.

PCPN COVERAGE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE ADJACENT ATL
WATERS. TRAJECTORIES SO FAR SHOW THE PCPN MOVING MAINLY PARALLEL
TO THE ILM COAST...AND NOT DIRECTLY ONSHORE. HOWEVER...AS THE
WEAKNESS SFC AND ALOFT ALONG THE SC-GA COAST MOVES SLOWLY NE-
WARD...EXPECT THE ATL PCPN BEGIN TO TRACK MORE NORTHERLY OR EVEN
NNW. AS A RESULT...THE CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE ILM WATERS THRU DAYBREAK.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS
SUNDAY MORNING WILL SAG INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY AFTERNOON...
STALLING AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERNMOST SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS LOW IS BEING MAINTAINED (AT
LEAST IN PART) BY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONGOING AROUND
IT. WHILE THE ODDS DO NOT FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NAMED
TROPICAL SYSTEM...THIS SITUATION WILL HAVE SOME PARALLELS TO WHAT
WE MIGHT EXPERIENCE DURING A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE LOW
OVER SOUTH CAROLINA WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...REACHING SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS MEANS WE`LL HAVE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND MODERATE SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...
WITH WINDS VEERING MORE WESTERLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

AT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST WINDS WE ARE EXPECTING ARE 15-20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20S. THIS IS OF COURSE VERY DEPENDENT ON
HOW MUCH (IF ANY) STRENGTHENING OCCURS OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND THE
WEAK FRONTAL LOW NOW EXPECTED. ASSUMING THESE WINDS PAN OUT SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO 4-5 FEET AWAY FROM SHORE...HIGHEST SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE ALONG LINGERING FRONT ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST EARLY TUES WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS MAY CAUSE VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON TUES
BUT OVERALL SHOULD SEE SW-W WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AND LIGHTEN
THROUGH EARLY WED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY THURS BUT
REMAINING 10 KTS OR LESS. THE OFF SHORE WINDS WILL KNOCK SEAS DOWN
THROUGH TUES FROM 2 TO 4 FT EARLY DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS TUES NIGHT
THROUGH THURS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH/III
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR/RJD







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

 1039 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WITH STORMS CROSSES
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE
END OF THE WORKWEEK AND WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
A STUBBORN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS EXTREME SE
KENTUCKY INTO NE TENN AT THIS TIME. STORM MOTION IS VERY SLOW TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH NEAR-TERM CONVECTIVE MODELS WEAKENING THESE
STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NONETHELESS...DUE TO THEIR
PROXIMITY TO OUR VA COUNTIES WENT AHEAD AND KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHOWER/STORM MAKING IT INTO THIS AREA PRIOR TO DISSIPATION.

730 PM UPDATE...
THE OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK...BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND A STOUT
THUNDERSTORM HANGING ON IN AND AROUND THE NORTHEAST KY ZONES.
INCREASED POPS AND SUBSEQUENT SKY COVER BY A FEW ADDITIONAL HOURS
IN THIS AREA...BUT STILL EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND OVER THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

PREV DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE ONLY ENHANCED CUMULUS AT THIS
TIME DOWN IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARDS THE VIRGINIA STATE LINE.
HAVE SEEN THE DEWPOINT VALUES COME UP OVER THE TUG VALLEY AND INTO
THE TRI STATE AREA...AND FIGURE THIS HAS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER
RIDGES IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THAT SAID...ONLY CARRYING
CHANCE OVER THE LOWLANDS. WEAK TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE EAT OF THE
AREA BY 00Z...WHEN THE BULK OF THE LOWLAND POPS DISAPPEAR.

FLOW TURNS SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
SLATED FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE EASTERN
SLOPES IN LOW STRATUS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT IN
THE MOIST UPSLOPE. MEANWHILE...THE LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING AT
THE 925MB LEVEL WILL HELP TO KEEP VALLEY FOG AT BAY.

HAVE ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS ALOFT SWINGING IN DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...BUT THE COLUMN LOOKS TO BE TOO DRY FOR ANY APPRECIABLE
RAIN THREAT. AGAIN...WILL KEEP THE MOUNTAINS IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CHANCES...BUT WILL KEEP THE WESTERN CWA DRY.

A QUICK WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AS THE
LOWLAND HIGHS TOP 80 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN. MOUNTAINS WILL FOLLOW
SUIT...GENERALLY 5 TO 15 DEGREES OFF THE PACE...DEPENDING ON
ELEVATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS IN TIMING OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. CURRENT TIMING HAS THE STRONG
FRONT CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER THURSDAY MORNING AND EXITING THE
MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON. THE PROSPECTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE FRONT IS UNCERTAIN. THIS IS DUE TO NOT THE BEST DIURNAL
TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND MUCH OF ENERGY FROM THE SUPPORTING SHORT
WAVE LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THUS...WILL NOT
INCLUDE MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT A THIS
TIME. NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE FRONT ADVERTISED AS AN ANAFRONT...WE
STILL EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT DUE TO GOOD FRONTAL DYNAMICS...AMPLE MOISTURE AND MODEST
INSTABILITY. WE EXPECT ABOUT A 3 TO 6 HOUR WINDOW FOR THE CONVECTION
FOLLOWING THE FRONT BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS BY THE END
OF THE DAY THURSDAY. WILL KEEP POPS MOSTLY ON THE LOW SIDE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. SO IT LOOKS LIKE CAT POPS MAINLY WEST THURSDAY MORNING
AND IN THE EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LOOK FOR TEMPS TO APPROACH 90 DEGREES WEDNESDAY UNDER PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST STILL DOMINATES. FOR NOW ON
THURSDAY...WILL GO WITH A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE. TEMPS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER MAINLY DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY WEST. TEMPERATURES REALLY BEGIN TO FALL OFF JUST AFTER
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS.  COLD FRONT...LOCATED JUST TO
OUR SOUTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WILL SLOWLY PUSH AWAY
FROM THE AREA. FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO SATURDAY.

A REINFORCING FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY...WHICH WILL
ALLOW AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO TAKE CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME CONVECTION CURRENTLY ABOUT 25-30 NM SSW OF HTS AT THIS TIME
MOVING VERY SLOWLY NNE. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT ANY SIG WX OUT OF THE
HTS TAF WITH THE THINKING THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE PRIOR
TO MAKING IT INTO THE VICINITY HTS AREA. MEANWHILE...LIGHT RAIN
AND LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY JUST TO THE SE OF BKW. WILL KEEP BKW VFR
PREVALENT BUT INTRODUCE A TEMPO GROUP OF MVFR CIGS WITH DECENT
CONFIDENCE THAT THIS TERMINAL WILL SEE AT LEAST BRIEF MVFR CIGS
OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVALENT.

STILL AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST TONIGHT WITH REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS. LATEST NAM AND RAP OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION OF THE AREA BY THE
09Z-12Z TIME FRAME WHICH WOULD PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD WHILE SCATTERING
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ELECTED NOT TO CHANGE MUCH IN THE
END...WITH MVFR VIS PREVALENT FOR MANY SITES BY THE NEAR DAWN
HOURS AND AT LEAST A SCATTERED LOW STRATUS DECK. ANY SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID-MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH CIGS
RISING AND/OR SCATTERING. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND GENERALLY
OUT OF THE SOUTH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TONIGHT IN QUESTION.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  TUE 09/09/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...50/26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...50









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

 800 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WITH STORMS CROSSES
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE
END OF THE WORKWEEK AND WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
THE OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK...BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND A STOUT
THUNDERSTORM HANGING ON IN AND AROUND THE NORTHEAST KY ZONES.
INCREASED POPS AND SUBSEQUENT SKY COVER BY A FEW ADDITIONAL HOURS
IN THIS AREA...BUT STILL EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND OVER THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

PREV DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE ONLY ENHANCED CUMULUS AT THIS
TIME DOWN IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARDS THE VIRGINIA STATE LINE.
HAVE SEEN THE DEWPOINT VALUES COME UP OVER THE TUG VALLEY AND INTO
THE TRI STATE AREA...AND FIGURE THIS HAS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER
RIDGES IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THAT SAID...ONLY CARRYING
CHANCE OVER THE LOWLANDS. WEAK TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE EAT OF THE
AREA BY 00Z...WHEN THE BULK OF THE LOWLAND POPS DISAPPEAR.

FLOW TURNS SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
SLATED FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE EASTERN
SLOPES IN LOW STRATUS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT IN
THE MOIST UPSLOPE. MEANWHILE...THE LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING AT
THE 925MB LEVEL WILL HELP TO KEEP VALLEY FOG AT BAY.

HAVE ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS ALOFT SWINGING IN DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...BUT THE COLUMN LOOKS TO BE TOO DRY FOR ANY APPRECIABLE
RAIN THREAT. AGAIN...WILL KEEP THE MOUNTAINS IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CHANCES...BUT WILL KEEP THE WESTERN CWA DRY.

A QUICK WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AS THE
LOWLAND HIGHS TOP 80 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN. MOUNTAINS WILL FOLLOW
SUIT...GENERALLY 5 TO 15 DEGREES OFF THE PACE...DEPENDING ON
ELEVATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS IN TIMING OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. CURRENT TIMING HAS THE STRONG
FRONT CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER THURSDAY MORNING AND EXITING THE
MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON. THE PROSPECTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE FRONT IS UNCERTAIN. THIS IS DUE TO NOT THE BEST DIURNAL
TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND MUCH OF ENERGY FROM THE SUPPORTING SHORT
WAVE LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THUS...WILL NOT
INCLUDE MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT A THIS
TIME. NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE FRONT ADVERTISED AS AN ANAFRONT...WE
STILL EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT DUE TO GOOD FRONTAL DYNAMICS...AMPLE MOISTURE AND MODEST
INSTABILITY. WE EXPECT ABOUT A 3 TO 6 HOUR WINDOW FOR THE CONVECTION
FOLLOWING THE FRONT BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS BY THE END
OF THE DAY THURSDAY. WILL KEEP POPS MOSTLY ON THE LOW SIDE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. SO IT LOOKS LIKE CAT POPS MAINLY WEST THURSDAY MORNING
AND IN THE EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LOOK FOR TEMPS TO APPROACH 90 DEGREES WEDNESDAY UNDER PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST STILL DOMINATES. FOR NOW ON
THURSDAY...WILL GO WITH A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE. TEMPS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER MAINLY DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY WEST. TEMPERATURES REALLY BEGIN TO FALL OFF JUST AFTER
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS.  COLD FRONT...LOCATED JUST TO
OUR SOUTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WILL SLOWLY PUSH AWAY
FROM THE AREA. FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO SATURDAY.

A REINFORCING FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY...WHICH WILL
ALLOW AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO TAKE CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME CONVECTION CURRENTLY ABOUT 25-30 NM SSW OF HTS AT THIS TIME
MOVING VERY SLOWLY NNE. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT ANY SIG WX OUT OF THE
HTS TAF WITH THE THINKING THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE PRIOR
TO MAKING IT INTO THE VICINITY HTS AREA. MEANWHILE...LIGHT RAIN
AND LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY JUST TO THE SE OF BKW. WILL KEEP BKW VFR
PREVALENT BUT INTRODUCE A TEMPO GROUP OF MVFR CIGS WITH DECENT
CONFIDENCE THAT THIS TERMINAL WILL SEE AT LEAST BRIEF MVFR CIGS
OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVALENT.

STILL AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST TONIGHT WITH REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS. LATEST NAM AND RAP OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION OF THE AREA BY THE
09Z-12Z TIME FRAME WHICH WOULD PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD WHILE SCATTERING
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ELECTED NOT TO CHANGE MUCH IN THE
END...WITH MVFR VIS PREVALENT FOR MANY SITES BY THE NEAR DAWN
HOURS AND AT LEAST A SCATTERED LOW STRATUS DECK. ANY SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID-MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH CIGS
RISING AND/OR SCATTERING. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND GENERALLY
OUT OF THE SOUTH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TONIGHT IN QUESTION.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            TUE 09/09/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    L    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...50/26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...50









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEDFORD OR

 813 PM PDT MON SEP 8 2014

.DISCUSSION...HAD ISOLATED SHOWERS POP UP OVER THE EAST SIDE AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
NOTHING TOO IMPRESSIVE, AND NO LIGHTNING, BUT THERE WAS PROBABLY
SOME LIGHT RAIN OUT OF A FEW OF THEM. SCOTT MOUNTAIN IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY REPORTED 0.12 INCH OF RAIN, AND SO FAR
THAT IS THE ONLY CREDIBLE RAINFALL REPORT. NEVERTHELESS, SHOWERS
WERE VERY ISOLATED, AND HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.

STRATUS HAS ALREADY MOVED BACK ONTO THE NORTH COOS COAST AND THE
SOUTH CURRY COAST THIS EVENING WHERE IT WILL STAY THROUGH THE
NIGHT. IT SHOULD ALSO MOVE INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN BY MORNING. MOST
OF THIS IS COVERED BY THE GOING FORECAST, BUT AM PLANNING A MINOR
UPDATE TO IMPROVE THE SKY GRIDS. I AM ALSO EVALUATING THE 09/00Z
GUIDANCE TO MAKE DECISIONS REGARDING THE MARINE HEADLINES. THE
09/00Z NAM SHOWS THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE
SUFFICIENT TO COVER THE NORTH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS
TOMORROW, BUT ALSO SHOWS INCREASED WIND SPEEDS (UP TO GALES) FOR
WEDNESDAY. 00Z GFS HAS NOT ARRIVED YET, SO WILL CONSULT IT BEFORE
MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES - THIS MAY RESULT IN A SECOND
UPDATE LATER THIS EVENING, BUT ONLY FOR MARINE AREAS.

OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 09/00Z TAF CYCLE...STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS HAS
ALREADY MOVED ONTO THE COOS COAST AND THE SOUTHERN CURRY COAST
(INCLUDING BOTH KOTH AND KBOK) AND WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH MID
MORNING TUESDAY. STRATUS WILL WORK INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN WITH MVFR
CIGS REACHING KRBG AROUND DAWN. ALL OF THIS SHOULD BURN OFF AND
MOVE BACK OFF SHORE BY MID MORNING TUESDAY. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 8 PM PDT MON 08 SEP 2014...HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND A THERMAL TROUGH
REDEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST...RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTH WINDS
AND WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS. NORTH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE
STRONGEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GALES POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY...HOWEVER STRONGER WINDS (GALES) ARE SHOWN FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE NORTH WIND AND SEAS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE
WATERS. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM PDT MON SEP 8 2014/

DISCUSSION...AS FAR AS THE GENERAL FORECAST GOES, THE PERIOD OF QUIET AND
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE OVERALL PATTERN,
WITH THE USUAL AND EXPECTED DIVERSION OF SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
TERM. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST TRENDED TOWARDS A GENERAL MODEL BLEND.

THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVEN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL WORK ITS WAY
EAST THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK, LAPSE RATES
ARE PRETTY STEEP IN SOME AREAS, AND MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASED IN
THE MID LEVELS. HIGH RESOLUTION NAM AND HRRR RUNS HAVE ALSO PRODUCED
VARYING AMOUNTS OF REFLECTIVITY OVER THE AREA. WITH ALL THIS IN
MIND, HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THAT WAS INTRODUCED
DURING THIS MORNING`S UPDATE, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES COMING DOWN CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL ALSO
BRING GUSTY, BUT NOT STRONG, WINDS TO AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES.
ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS AT THE COAST
LONGER DURING THE DAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING STRATUS SPREADING
INTO THE ROSEBURG AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. BOTH THE NAM12
AND TO A CERTAIN EXTENT THE GFS BRING SOME MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE
UMPQUA DIVIDE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH
THAT WE WILL SEE CLOUDS IN MEDFORD.

STEERING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND STAY NW THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE SMOKE
BACK INTO SISKIYOU COUNTY BUT COULD PRESENT PROBLEMS FOR YREKA AND
MOUNT SHASTA AREA.

EXPECT WARMING TREND TO RETURN AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND STAY WITH US
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...AS A MIDLEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD AND
THE THERMAL TROUGH RETURNS AND EXTENDS NORTHWARD WEST OF THE
CASCADES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON THE EAST
SIDE, AND THIS DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN SOME STRONGER EAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASED FIRE CONCERNS INTO THE
WEEKEND. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING A POSSIBLE LARGER TROUGH
ENTERING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE BLOCKY LOOKING PATTERN
PRODUCED UPSTREAM BY THE HEMISPHERICAL MODELS DURING THE SAME
PERIOD. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE
TERM. -BPN

FIRE WEATHER...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS SOME CUMULUS BUILD UPS
AROUND THE SHASTA TRINITY NORTHEAST THROUGH MEDICINE BOW PEAK AND
SOUTHEAST MODOC COUNTY. SOME ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE CASCADES AND
HIGHER TERRAIN ON THE EAST SIDE. THE MODELS HINT AT VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW
SOME INSTABILITY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS, BUT IT`S MARGINAL AT
BEST. MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAP, SO IT`S POSSIBLE THAT
THERE MAY NOT BE A LOT OF VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. IF ANY ISOLATED
STORMS WERE TO DEVELOP, IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE BETWEEN 4-8 PM
PDT. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE
MID SLOPES AND RIDGES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A DRY
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY AND THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE HIGHER. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER, SO WERE NOT EXPECTING RED
FLAG CONDITIONS TO BE MET. THEREFORE WE`LL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE IT
IN THE FORECAST. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH IDAHO AND
WESTERN MONTANA WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO
EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST OREGON BY THURSDAY MORNING. A
THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE OREGON COAST AND THE PATTERN
DEVELOPING IS FAVORABLE TO MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW ALONG
THE CASCADES AND POSSIBLY WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. ALSO THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WHICH COULD RESULT IN
MODERATE TO POOR RECOVERIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
MODERATE TO POOR RECOVERIES AND WIND COULD WARRANT RED FLAG
CONDITIONS, BUT THERE`S STILL TIME TO EVALUATE THIS. FOR NOW WE`LL
HEADLINE FOR THIS POTENTIAL JUST TO RAISE AWARENESS TO THE USERS.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
     PZZ376.

$$







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 1156 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG/OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE NATIONS MIDSECTION WILL EXPAND A MODIFIED
CANADIAN AIRMASS EASTWARD INTO THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...BRINGING A TASTE OF FALL TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WITH
SEASONABLY COOL/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1045PM UPDATE...
FCST GOING WELL. HRRR AND RAP KEEP ONLY A TINY SHOWER POPPING UP
BY SUNRISE IN THE SE. CURR POPS MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE...BUT NO
TWEAKS FOR THIS UPDATE AS LLVL MSTR ON THE RISE ON ON-SHORE FLOW.

8 PM UPDATE...
CLOUDS SNEAKING INTO THE LAURELS AND EVEN A FEW PIXELS OF
REFLECTIVITY OBSERVED ON THE RADAR VERY CLOSE TO HOME.
HOWEVER...THE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S MOST LIKELY KEEPING ANYTHING
BUT THE TINIEST DRIZZLY DROPS FROM MAKING IT TO THE VALLEY FLOOR.
WILL KEEP ON WITH GOING FCST AND EVEN SLIGHTLY SLOW TIMING OF THE
BETTER CHC OF SHRA UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNRISE.

PREV...
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND RELATIVELY STG 925-850MB SE UPSLOPE FLOW
BTWN DEPARTING SFC ANTICYCLONE DRIFTING EWD FM ME INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WEAK LOW LIFTING SLOWLY NWD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
SHOULD YIELD THICKENING/LOWERING CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL PA
THRU TNT. HIGHER PWS AND FAVORABLE RT ENTRANCE JET DYNAMICS WILL
SUPPORT MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN OVER SRN AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
AFT MIDNIGHT IN THE SE. LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN THE LAST TWO
NIGHTS GIVEN INFLUX OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS/LLVL MSTR AND MORE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CHC OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD PEAK DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY
GIVEN COMBO OF BEST MID-LVL LIFT ASSOCD WITH WK S/WV CROSSING THE
LWR LKS...MOIST LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW AND PEAK MSTR FLUX CONVERGENCE.
ANY RAFL SHOULD BE LGT AND SPOTTY WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SE
ZONES CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THEME
OF THE DAY AND RESULT IN A RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN
THE U60S AND M70S.

A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AS REGION
COMES UNDER RIDGING AT SFC AND ALOFT. HOWEVER PERSISTENT MOIST
SERLY FLOW AT LOW LVLS SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS
SOME POCKETS OF DZ. LOWS ANOTHER 1-3F WARMER THAN TONIGHT RANGING
FROM THE M50S TO L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS NOTED ABOVE...CENTRAL PA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED...THUS
NOT EXPECTING MUCH AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLDS WITH
PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE.

MED RANGE GUIDANCE STILL TRACKING SFC LOW WEST OF PA THRU THE GRT
LKS WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT SLATED FOR THURSDAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PA. SOME UNCERTAINTY W/REGARDS TO HOW UNSTABLE
PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS BECOMES. HOWEVER...GEFS PWAT ANOMALIES OF
2-3SD ARGUE FOR AT LEAST LIKELY POPS THURSDAY.

FCST UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP IN THE FRI-SAT TIME FRAME WITH REGARD TO
HOW FAST COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA. GEFS/GFS ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE...SPEEDING THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRES AND ASSOC COOL/DRY
AIR MASS ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND CANADIAN
STALL COLD FRONT FRONT OUT ALONG THE E COAST.

MID SHIFT INTRODUCED THE CHC OF SHOWERS IN THE FCST BOTH FRI AND
SAT...AND TEMPERED THE COOL DOWN. MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THIS SO FAR
TODAY WAS TO TAPER OFF SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
NIGHT...GIVEN THAT FRONT WILL BE TO THE SE...AND FLOW ALOFT IS
TOO MUCH SW FOR MUCH OFF THE LAKES LATER FRIDAY. LEFT SATURDAY AS
IS...GIVEN TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS FEATURE COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS...EVEN ACROSS THE SE. NOT LOOKING AT MUCH
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HEIGHTS BUILD BACK UP TOWARD 570.

CHILLY...FALL-LIKE...AIR MASS SHOULD EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO PA
BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BLW NORMAL.

FOR NOW...WENT WITH A DRY FCST FOR MONDAY...AIRMASS LIKELY TO
BE TOO DRY FOR ANYTHING FROM ANY POTENTIAL VORT MAX MOVING SE
IN FAST NW FLOW. ALWAYS HAVE TO WATCH FAR SE STATES IN THESE
CASES...GIVEN THAT COLD AIR IS NOT REAL DEEP AND RETURN FLOW
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IN THIS CASE...FRONT IS STILL
WELL TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES....BRINGING LOW LEVEL CU/STRATO CU TO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE BIG QUESTION OVERNIGHT IS THE RESULT OF
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND THE UPSLOPE FLOW. MVFR CIGS HAVE
ALREADY TAKEN HOLD IN JST AND AOO. THESE SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS MOST
OF THE OTHER TAF SITES WITH IFR POSSIBLE AT JST AND AOO BETWEEN
11Z AND 15Z. THIS PERSISTENT STRATOCU DECK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD DECREASE ANY FOG/MIST DEVELOPMENT AND
REDUCED VSBYS. HOWEVER CIGS COULD DECREASE WITH MVFR POSSIBLE AT
MDT AND LNS...AND IFR POSSIBLE AT UNV AND IPT. CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM TO HIGH FOR IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 06-12Z AT JST AND
AOO WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES. STILL CANT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE SCNTRL/SERN PRTNS
OF THE AIRSPACE...MAINLY OVER THE LAURELS...BUT EXPECT LOW CIGS TO
BE PRIMARY AVN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM.

MVFR TO IFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
MORNING THROUGH THE EASTERN TAF SITES...AND THROUGH AT LEAST MID
DAY FOR THE WESTERN TAF SITES...WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH PART
OF THE MORNIGN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CIGS AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING...WHEN STRATO CU SHOULD LOWER ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED...LOW CIGS.
THU...TSTMS LKLY WITH STRONG COLD FRONT. CONDITIONAL SVR WX RISK
AND UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF FROPA.
FRI-SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/STEINBUGL




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 1051 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG/OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE NATIONS MIDSECTION WILL EXPAND A MODIFIED
CANADIAN AIRMASS EASTWARD INTO THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...BRINGING A TASTE OF FALL TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WITH
SEASONABLY COOL/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1045PM UPDATE...
FCST GOING WELL. HRRR AND RAP KEEP ONLY A TINY SHOWER POPPING UP
BY SUNRISE IN THE SE. CURR POPS MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE...BUT NO
TWEAKS FOR THIS UPDATE AS LLVL MSTR ON THE RISE ON ON-SHORE FLOW.

8 PM UPDATE...
CLOUDS SNEAKING INTO THE LAURELS AND EVEN A FEW PIXELS OF
REFLECTIVITY OBSERVED ON THE RADAR VERY CLOSE TO HOME.
HOWEVER...THE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S MOST LIKELY KEEPING ANYTHING
BUT THE TINIEST DRIZZLY DROPS FROM MAKING IT TO THE VALLEY FLOOR.
WILL KEEP ON WITH GOING FCST AND EVEN SLIGHTLY SLOW TIMING OF THE
BETTER CHC OF SHRA UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNRISE.

PREV...
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND RELATIVELY STG 925-850MB SE UPSLOPE FLOW
BTWN DEPARTING SFC ANTICYCLONE DRIFTING EWD FM ME INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WEAK LOW LIFTING SLOWLY NWD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
SHOULD YIELD THICKENING/LOWERING CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL PA
THRU TNT. HIGHER PWS AND FAVORABLE RT ENTRANCE JET DYNAMICS WILL
SUPPORT MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN OVER SRN AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
AFT MIDNIGHT IN THE SE. LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN THE LAST TWO
NIGHTS GIVEN INFLUX OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS/LLVL MSTR AND MORE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CHC OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD PEAK DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY
GIVEN COMBO OF BEST MID-LVL LIFT ASSOCD WITH WK S/WV CROSSING THE
LWR LKS...MOIST LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW AND PEAK MSTR FLUX CONVERGENCE.
ANY RAFL SHOULD BE LGT AND SPOTTY WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SE
ZONES CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THEME
OF THE DAY AND RESULT IN A RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN
THE U60S AND M70S.

A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AS REGION
COMES UNDER RIDGING AT SFC AND ALOFT. HOWEVER PERSISTENT MOIST
SERLY FLOW AT LOW LVLS SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS
SOME POCKETS OF DZ. LOWS ANOTHER 1-3F WARMER THAN TONIGHT RANGING
FROM THE M50S TO L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS NOTED ABOVE...CENTRAL PA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED...THUS
NOT EXPECTING MUCH AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLDS WITH
PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE.

MED RANGE GUIDANCE STILL TRACKING SFC LOW WEST OF PA THRU THE GRT
LKS WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT SLATED FOR THURSDAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PA. SOME UNCERTAINTY W/REGARDS TO HOW UNSTABLE
PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS BECOMES. HOWEVER...GEFS PWAT ANOMALIES OF
2-3SD ARGUE FOR AT LEAST LIKELY POPS THURSDAY.

FCST UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP IN THE FRI-SAT TIME FRAME WITH REGARD TO
HOW FAST COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA. GEFS/GFS ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE...SPEEDING THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRES AND ASSOC COOL/DRY
AIR MASS ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND CANADIAN
STALL COLD FRONT FRONT OUT ALONG THE E COAST.

MID SHIFT INTRODUCED THE CHC OF SHOWERS IN THE FCST BOTH FRI AND
SAT...AND TEMPERED THE COOL DOWN. MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THIS SO FAR
TODAY WAS TO TAPER OFF SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
NIGHT...GIVEN THAT FRONT WILL BE TO THE SE...AND FLOW ALOFT IS
TOO MUCH SW FOR MUCH OFF THE LAKES LATER FRIDAY. LEFT SATURDAY AS
IS...GIVEN TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS FEATURE COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS...EVEN ACROSS THE SE. NOT LOOKING AT MUCH
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HEIGHTS BUILD BACK UP TOWARD 570.

CHILLY...FALL-LIKE...AIR MASS SHOULD EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO PA
BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BLW NORMAL.

FOR NOW...WENT WITH A DRY FCST FOR MONDAY...AIRMASS LIKELY TO
BE TOO DRY FOR ANYTHING FROM ANY POTENTIAL VORT MAX MOVING SE
IN FAST NW FLOW. ALWAYS HAVE TO WATCH FAR SE STATES IN THESE
CASES...GIVEN THAT COLD AIR IS NOT REAL DEEP AND RETURN FLOW
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IN THIS CASE...FRONT IS STILL
WELL TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES....BRINGING LOW LEVEL CU/STRATO CU TO
THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE BIG QUESTION OVERNIGHT IS THE RESULT
OF THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE...POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ AND CENTRAL PA...AND WHERE CLEARING IS
OCCURRING IN THE NW.
 EVEN WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN
LARGE...AND BRINGING IN A PERSISTENT STRATOCU DECK. EXPECT THIS
TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD DECREASE
ANY FOG/MIST DEVELOPMENT AND REDUCED VSBYS. HOWEVER CIGS COULD
DECREASE WITH MVFR POSSIBLE AT MDT AND LNS...AND IFR POSSIBLE AT
UNV AND IPT. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM FOR IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
06-12Z WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR. STILL CANT RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE SCNTRL/SERN PRTNS OF THE
AIRSPACE...MAINLY OVER THE LAURELS...BUT EXPECT LOW CIGS TO BE
PRIMARY AVN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM.

MVFR TO IFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
MORNING THROUGH THE EASTERN TAF SITES...AND THROUGH AT LEAST MID
DAY FOR THE WESTERN TAF SITES...WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE VICINITY SHOWERS IN
UNV...AOO AND IPT AS TIMING AND SEVERITY OF CONDITIONS IS UNKOWN
AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
WED...LOW CIGS.
THU...TSTMS LKLY WITH STRONG COLD FRONT. CONDITIONAL SVR WX RISK
AND UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF FROPA.
FRI-SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/STEINBUGL



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

 1227 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2014/

DISCUSSION...15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA WHILE A 1024 MB RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI. AS OF 10 AM
CDT...MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM PARIS TENNESSEE BACK THROUGH WYNNE ARKANSAS...AND SUNNY
SKIES ELSEWHERE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
12Z WRF/GFS AND THE LATEST RUC STILL INDICATE A POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST OVERALL IS
IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATE ANTICIPATED AT THIS MOMENT.

CJC

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
COOLER...DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPS RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S ACROSS MONROE COUNTY.
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S ARE BEGINNING TO SEEP ACROSS THE MO
BORDER. A BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS ALSO PUSHING ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A FEW SPRINKLES.

TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WHERE SOME INSTABILITY REMAINS. THE NAM IS MOST
BULLISH ON THIS POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL AROUND 70.
OTRW HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BUILD IN
WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH
TO MID 80S SOUTH.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL RESULT IN A PLEASANT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
AREA WIDE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HEADS EAST AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN AND SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BRINGING
INCREASING HUMIDITY. TEMPS WILL WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE
LOWER 90S...FOR PERHAPS WHAT WILL BE THE LAST GASP OF SUMMER. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SINCE THE 00Z MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER BRINGING THE FRONT
INTO THE MIDSOUTH...ADJUSTED POPS DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO SINCE THE MODELS ARE MOVING THE FRONT
THROUGH SLOWER RAISED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF THURSDAY
NIGHT. PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE 2 INCHES ALONG
THE FRONT SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. PUSHED TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY
SINCE THE FRONT IS SLOWER.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF ON FRIDAY AND
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR AS VERY COOL HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD IN. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S...TO
AROUND 80 ACROSS NE MS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE 50S
AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME OF THE COOLER LOCATIONS IN
THE UPPER 40S IF THE 00Z GFS VERIFIES WELL.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW MVFR CLOUDS
CURRENTLY AT MKL SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE
ONLY OTHER IMPEDIMENT TO AVIATION EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS PATCHY FOR AT TUP AND MKL AGAIN TONIGHT. LOW STRATUS IS ALSO
POSSIBLE...BUT LIGHT WINDS SHOULD HELP MINIMIZE THAT THREAT SO
WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MVRE OR IFR DECKS AT THIS TIME. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES.

30

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

 1210 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2014

.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH AND CAA IS IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN INDICATES A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH WEAK EASTWARD MOVING
IMPULSES. DYNAMICS ARE QUITE WEAK BUT JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE RESIDES
FOR A LIGHT SHOWER TO OCCUR HERE AND THERE PRIOR TO
00Z...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF MIDDLE TN.
BUT...OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND OTHER THAN THE CLOUD
COVER...MOISTURE WILL BE OMITTED FROM THE TAFS. TONIGHT...SOME FOG
WILL DEVELOP AS THE BKN CLOUD COVER TRENDS TOWARD SCT. VSBYS WILL
RETURN TO P6SM BY 13-14Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH OF TN. UPPER PATTERN
FEATURES A RATHER WEAK BROAD TROUGH WITH A FEW IMPULSES RACING
EASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERLY FLOW. SAT IMAGERY DEPICTS A SWATH OF
CLOUDINESS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS...HERE AND THERE...AS WELL. MODELS KEEP THE CLOUDINESS IN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER BY LATE AFTERNOON. HRRR NOT SHOWING MUCH SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE MODEL DATA DOES CARRY SOME QPF THROUGH THE
DAY...MAINLY EASTERN AREAS.

CURRENT FCST LOOKS OK BUT I WILL GO AHEAD AND LOWER TODAY`S HIGH
TEMPS. 18Z GRAPHICAL TEMPS SHOW MID 70S FOR BNA SO I WILL AIM FOR
HIGHS THAT WILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW...THE CAA MAY WIN OUT AND TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE
TO WARM TODAY.

UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...LOW-TO-MID LEVEL MOISTURE SLOW TO PULL OUT OF THE MID
STATE BEHIND YESTERDAY`S COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT, EXPECT IFR
AND MVFR CIGS AT CSV THROUGH 20Z AND MAINLY MVFR CIGS AT BNA THROUGH
20Z. MEANWHILE, BLV ENOUGH DRIER AIR HAS ALREADY FILTERED INTO THE
CKV AREA TO ALLOW FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING
AND THE UPCOMING AFTERNOON. BTWN 20Z/07 AND 06Z/08, BLV DRIER AIR
WILL HAVE PUSHED DEEP ENOUGH INTO THE MID STATE TO PRODUCE VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. AFTER 06Z, LOOK FOR PATCHY BR TO
DEVELOP AT CKV AND CSV, LIKELY PRODUCING MVFR VSBYS AT THOSE TWO
LOCATIONS AFTER 08Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

 1059 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2014

.DISCUSSION...15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA WHILE A 1024 MB RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI. AS OF 10 AM
CDT...MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM PARIS TENNESSEE BACK THROUGH WYNNE ARKANSAS...AND SUNNY
SKIES ELSEWHERE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
12Z WRF/GFS AND THE LATEST RUC STILL INDICATE A POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST OVERALL IS
IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATE ANTICIPATED AT THIS MOMENT.

CJC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
COOLER...DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPS RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S ACROSS MONROE COUNTY.
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S ARE BEGINNING TO SEEP ACROSS THE MO
BORDER. A BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS ALSO PUSHING ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A FEW SPRINKLES.

TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WHERE SOME INSTABILITY REMAINS. THE NAM IS MOST
BULLISH ON THIS POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL AROUND 70.
OTRW HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BUILD IN
WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH
TO MID 80S SOUTH.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL RESULT IN A PLEASANT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
AREA WIDE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HEADS EAST AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN AND SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BRINGING
INCREASING HUMIDITY. TEMPS WILL WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE
LOWER 90S...FOR PERHAPS WHAT WILL BE THE LAST GASP OF SUMMER. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SINCE THE 00Z MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER BRINGING THE FRONT
INTO THE MIDSOUTH...ADJUSTED POPS DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO SINCE THE MODELS ARE MOVING THE FRONT
THROUGH SLOWER RAISED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF THURSDAY
NIGHT. PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE 2 INCHES ALONG
THE FRONT SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. PUSHED TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY
SINCE THE FRONT IS SLOWER.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF ON FRIDAY AND
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR AS VERY COOL HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD IN. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S...TO
AROUND 80 ACROSS NE MS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE 50S
AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME OF THE COOLER LOCATIONS IN
THE UPPER 40S IF THE 00Z GFS VERIFIES WELL.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL KEEP THE SITES VFR...WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING MORNING MVFR CIGS AT TUP. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI...SO
PLACED VCSH IN AT TUP. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT FOG/MVFR
VSBY POSSIBLE AT MKL. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST AT 5-9 KTS DIMINISHING
TO 3-5 KTS BY SUNSET.

JAB
&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

 926 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH OF TN. UPPER PATTERN
FEATURES A RATHER WEAK BROAD TROUGH WITH A FEW IMPULSES RACING
EASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERLY FLOW. SAT IMAGERY DEPICTS A SWATH OF
CLOUDINESS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS...HERE AND THERE...AS WELL. MODELS KEEP THE CLOUDINESS IN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER BY LATE AFTERNOON. HRRR NOT SHOWING MUCH SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE MODEL DATA DOES CARRY SOME QPF THROUGH THE
DAY...MAINLY EASTERN AREAS.

CURRENT FCST LOOKS OK BUT I WILL GO AHEAD AND LOWER TODAY`S HIGH
TEMPS. 18Z GRAPHICAL TEMPS SHOW MID 70S FOR BNA SO I WILL AIM FOR
HIGHS THAT WILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW...THE CAA MAY WIN OUT AND TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE
TO WARM TODAY.

UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...LOW-TO-MID LEVEL MOISTURE SLOW TO PULL OUT OF THE MID
STATE BEHIND YESTERDAY`S COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT, EXPECT IFR
AND MVFR CIGS AT CSV THROUGH 20Z AND MAINLY MVFR CIGS AT BNA THROUGH
20Z. MEANWHILE, BLV ENOUGH DRIER AIR HAS ALREADY FILTERED INTO THE
CKV AREA TO ALLOW FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING
AND THE UPCOMING AFTERNOON. BTWN 20Z/07 AND 06Z/08, BLV DRIER AIR
WILL HAVE PUSHED DEEP ENOUGH INTO THE MID STATE TO PRODUCE VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. AFTER 06Z, LOOK FOR PATCHY BR TO
DEVELOP AT CKV AND CSV, LIKELY PRODUCING MVFR VSBYS AT THOSE TWO
LOCATIONS AFTER 08Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      81  63  86  65 /  10  10  10  05
CLARKSVILLE    80  58  84  60 /  10  05  05  05
CROSSVILLE     77  61  80  63 /  20  20  30  10
COLUMBIA       82  63  86  65 /  10  10  10  05
LAWRENCEBURG   83  64  86  65 /  20  05  10  10
WAVERLY        81  60  85  62 /  10  05  05  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

 313 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and tomorrow)

The quasi-stationary front is currently analyzed very near the
southern border of the CWA, roughly along a line from Sheffield, to
Rock Springs, to San Antonio. Skies cleared by midday across the
I-10 corridor, allowing temperatures to warm into the mid 80s.
MLCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/kg are present from Ozona to
Junction per the RAP Mesoanalysis, but CINH is no longer a concern
in this area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed in
the vicinity of this boundary and will move to the northwest during
the afternoon and evening hours. Rain chances tonight will primarily
be limited to locations south of a Sterling City to Brownwood line.
The primary concern will be locally heavy rainfall given the slow
storm motions and precipitable water values around 1.75". This could
result in minor flooding, mainly in urban areas. Low temperatures
tonight should be in the upper 60s.

On Monday, we`ll maintain a moist airmass across West Central TX.
Precipitable water values are progged to remain at or above 1.60",
but the surface boundary is progged to wash out as southerly flow
resumes across the region. The loss of a low-level forcing mechanism
will limit rain chances. However, with temperatures warming into the
lower 90s, we should still see diurnal isolated convection across
the area. The best rain chances will be over the northwest Hill
Country, but isolated showers and thunderstorms will be included for
much of the area east of a Sonora, to San Angelo, to Sweetwater
line.

Johnson

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow night through Sunday)

A cold front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms and
cooler temperatures for the latter part of the work week...

Above normal temperatures are forecast on Tuesday, with highs
ranging from the lower to mid 90s across the Interstate 10 corridor,
to the mid to upper 90s across the Big Country. Overnight lows will
be int he mid 70s. In the meantime, an upper level trough will move
into the Northern Rockies, and then eventually into the Northern
Plains, sending a cold front into the northern Big Country Wednesday
evening. Ahead of the cold front, compressional heating will result
in unseasonably hot temperatures on Wednesday. Highs will generally
be in the mid to upper 90s.

Models continue to have timing differences with regard to the
aforementioned cold front. Both the ECMWF and the GFS bring a front
into the Big Country Wednesdays night, then eventually slowly move
it through much of the rest of West Central Texas during the day
Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop along
the front, with the best chance across the Big Country initially,
then better chances spreading south into much of the rest of the
area Thursday into Thursday night. High temperatures on Thursday
will be dependent on the timing of the front and any associated
rainfall. For now, the forecast reflects highs in the mid 80s across
the Big Country to the lower 90s across the Interstate 10 corridor.

Beyond Thursday, the GFS pushes the front through the area, while
the ECMWF dissipates the boundary, with a stronger cold front moving
through during the day on Friday. For now, the forecast was geared
toward the faster GFS solution, with PoPs decreasing from north to
south Friday. If the ECMWF solution were to verify, higher PoPs
would linger into Friday/Friday night. Highs on Friday were trended
down, given the expected cloud cover and cold air advection. Highs
will range from the lower 70s in the Big Country to near 80 along
the Interstate 10 corridor. These temperatures may eventually need
to be trended down a bit. A slow warm up is forecast into next
weekend.

Daniels

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  66  91  71  96  75 /  10  10   5   5   5
San Angelo  67  92  71  96  75 /  20  10   5   5   5
Junction  68  90  71  95  74 /  20  20  10   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Johnson/Daniels





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

 1239 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2014

.UPDATE...
Clouds have begun to scatter over the southwest portion of the
CWA, mainly south of a Mertzon, to Eldorado, to Junction line. RAP
Mesoanalysis data indicates 100mb MLCAPE values on the order of
500-1000 J/kg along the I-10 corridor, but CINH remains an issue
for now. However, with additional insolation pushing temps into
the mid 80s, the cap should erode, resulting in scattered showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. This appears to have
been captured by both the GFS and NAM, in addition to the hi-res
CAMS.

The possibility of convection farther north cannot be ruled out,
but the highest PoPs were centered along I-10. Max temps were
nudged up a few degrees in the south and lowered across the
northwestern portion of the CWA where cloud cover will persist the
longest. Otherwise, changes to the inherited forecast were minor.

Johnson

&&

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

IFR conditions continue across portions of the CWA, namely along
the I-20 corridor, including KSWW and KABI, and in the KBBD area.
Ceilings will gradually improve at the forecast terminals over the
next few hours, with clouds scattering out south and west of a
KSJT to KJCT line. Generally VFR conditions are anticipated
areawide by late afternoon, with scattered showers (and a few
thunderstorms) possible this afternoon and evening along the I-10
corridor from KJCT, to KSOA, to KOZA. This was included in the
TAFs as VCSH for these sites. Winds will become light and variable
overnight, becoming south at 5-10 kts by mid-morning Monday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

IFR conditions are occurring early this morning at the TAF sites
with ceilings between 500 ft and 1000 ft. Rain showers continue
to develop across various parts of West Central Texas, and
initially carrying a mention of SHRA or VCSH in the TAFs. The
coverage of showers should decrease between 12Z and 15Z, with
a possibility of scattered redevelopment through early this
evening. Although extensive cloud cover will persist through
early afternoon, expect a gradual improvement to MVFR conditions
as the ceilings slowly increase. VFR ceilings are expected by
late afternoon, and a decrease in cloud cover is anticipated this
evening and overnight. North-northeast winds this morning will
veer to the east by this evening, and to the southeast tonight.
Patchy fog development is possible late tonight, especially if
sufficient clearing occurs. But given the uncertainty at this
time and with several time groups already included in the TAF
package, decided to hold off at this point with adding fog and
visibility restrictions.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Showers are occurring across our central and northern counties, in a
rather moist airmass north of a stalled frontal boundary. The most
noteworthy is a persistent east-west band of showers with moderate
to heavy rain, extending from just east of San Angelo to just south
of Brownwood. The HRRR and TTU WRF pick up on these showers to some
extent, with a trend of dissipation between 12Z and 15Z. May need to
extend the higher PoPs from the overnight period past 12Z this
morning. Will monitor radar trends and update if needed.

During the day today, have a possibility for scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms in the moist airmass. Considerable cloud cover
will hold through early afternoon, and then should have a decrease
in cloud cover from the west and southwest later in the afternoon.
The extent and duration of cloud cover is expected to have an effect
on temperatures today. Going with highs in the lower to mid 80s.

Have a lingering slight chance PoP early tonight for our central and
southern counties. Otherwise, a decrease in cloud cover is expected
overnight. Given the recent rainfall and a moist airmass, will have
a possibility for patchy fog development late tonight, depending on
the extent of clearing. Temperatures will cool to near dewpoint
values overnight with light (southeast) winds.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Sunday)

.A strong cold front will bring much cooler temperatures and
another chance of rainfall to the area by the end of the week...

South winds and much warmer temperatures return to the area Monday
through Wednesday, as a lee surface trough develops ahead of an
upper level trough moving east across the Rockies. Temperatures on
Monday will be near seasonal norms for this time of year, with
afternoon highs in the lower 90s. An isolated shower or thunderstorm
will be possible across far southeast counties during the
afternoon, otherwise dry conditions will prevail. Breezy south to
southwest winds and above normal temperatures return to the area
Tuesday and Wednesday with highs both days in the mid and upper
90s.

Big changes coming towards the end of the week as the aforementioned
upper trough tracks east across the Plains, sending a strong cold
front south across our area on Thursday. It will feel more like
fall behind the front Friday and Saturday with high temperatures
only in the middle/upper70s to lower 80s, with overnight lows in
the lower to middle 60s. We`ll also see another chance for showers
and thunderstorms along and behind the front Thursday into Friday.
Kept chance POPs in the forecast for now, but will likely need to
be raised further as model confidence increases. Below normal
temperatures continue for next Sunday but it will be a little
warmer with highs mainly in the middle 80s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  82  68  92  73  95 /  30  10  10   5   5
San Angelo  83  68  92  71  95 /  40  20  10   5   5
Junction  86  69  91  71  94 /  50  20  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

 653 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

IFR conditions are occurring early this morning at the TAF sites
with ceilings between 500 ft and 1000 ft. Rain showers continue
to develop across various parts of West Central Texas, and
initially carrying a mention of SHRA or VCSH in the TAFs. The
coverage of showers should decrease between 12Z and 15Z, with
a possibility of scattered redevelopment through early this
evening. Although extensive cloud cover will persist through
early afternoon, expect a gradual improvement to MVFR conditions
as the ceilings slowly increase. VFR ceilings are expected by
late afternoon, and a decrease in cloud cover is anticipated this
evening and overnight. North-northeast winds this morning will
veer to the east by this evening, and to the southeast tonight.
Patchy fog development is possible late tonight, especially if
sufficient clearing occurs. But given the uncertainty at this
time and with several time groups already included in the TAF
package, decided to hold off at this point with adding fog and
visibility restrictions.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Showers are occurring across our central and northern counties, in a
rather moist airmass north of a stalled frontal boundary. The most
noteworthy is a persistent east-west band of showers with moderate
to heavy rain, extending from just east of San Angelo to just south
of Brownwood. The HRRR and TTU WRF pick up on these showers to some
extent, with a trend of dissipation between 12Z and 15Z. May need to
extend the higher PoPs from the overnight period past 12Z this
morning. Will monitor radar trends and update if needed.

During the day today, have a possibility for scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms in the moist airmass. Considerable cloud cover
will hold through early afternoon, and then should have a decrease
in cloud cover from the west and southwest later in the afternoon.
The extent and duration of cloud cover is expected to have an effect
on temperatures today. Going with highs in the lower to mid 80s.

Have a lingering slight chance PoP early tonight for our central and
southern counties. Otherwise, a decrease in cloud cover is expected
overnight. Given the recent rainfall and a moist airmass, will have
a possibility for patchy fog development late tonight, depending on
the extent of clearing. Temperatures will cool to near dewpoint
values overnight with light (southeast) winds.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Sunday)

..A strong cold front will bring much cooler temperatures and
another chance of rainfall to the area by the end of the week...

South winds and much warmer temperatures return to the area Monday
through Wednesday, as a lee surface trough develops ahead of an
upper level trough moving east across the Rockies. Temperatures on
Monday will be near seasonal norms for this time of year, with
afternoon highs in the lower 90s. An isolated shower or thunderstorm
will be possible across far southeast counties during the
afternoon, otherwise dry conditions will prevail. Breezy south to
southwest winds and above normal temperatures return to the area
Tuesday and Wednesday with highs both days in the mid and upper
90s.

Big changes coming towards the end of the week as the aforementioned
upper trough tracks east across the Plains, sending a strong cold
front south across our area on Thursday. It will feel more like
fall behind the front Friday and Saturday with high temperatures
only in the middle/upper70s to lower 80s, with overnight lows in
the lower to middle 60s. We`ll also see another chance for showers
and thunderstorms along and behind the front Thursday into Friday.
Kept chance POPs in the forecast for now, but will likley need to
be raised further as model confidence increases. Below normal
temperatures continue for next Sunday but it will be a liitle
warmer with highs mainly in the middle 80s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  83  68  92  73  95 /  50  10  10   5   5
San Angelo  84  68  92  71  95 /  60  20  10   5   5
Junction  85  69  91  71  94 /  40  20  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation and Short Term: 19
Long Term: JW








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS FORT WORTH TX

 616 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2014

.AVIATION...
MORNING STRATUS IN METROPLEX WILL BE SLOW TO MIX OUT THIS MORNING
DUE TO CLOUD COVER. CEILINGS COULD DIP INTO THE IFR RANGE NEAR SUNRISE
AS SUPPORTED BY THE RAP AND GFS MOS. WITH THE FRONT FAIRLY FAR
SOUTH WE THINK TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN THE METROPLEX
AREA AND HAVE LEFT THE TAFS TSRA FREE. RAIN SHOULD BE DONE THIS
EVENING AND THEN STAY DRY THROUGH TOMORROW.

AT KACT...BETTER MIXING SHOULD KEEP CEILINGS ABOVE IFR THIS
MORNING. CHANCE OF TSRA IS HIGHER AND HAVE CONTINUED THE VCTS FOR
THE AFTERNOON.  84

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2014/
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
YESTERDAY CONTINUED ITS SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESS INTO SOUTH TEXAS
THIS MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH PREVAILED ACROSS THE
REGION. AS OF 4 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FARTHER
TO THE NORTH.

EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20 WITH RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY. WITH CLOUD COVER AND
THE COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY WARM INTO
THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO
10 MPH AREA WIDE TODAY AND BECOME EASTERLY THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST. HAVE LEFT SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE AREA
SOUTH OF I-20 INTO TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

THE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE FROM THE NORTH MONDAY ALLOWING
FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE TO ATHENS LINE. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
FARTHER TO THE EAST AND A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S. EXPECT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY HUNDREDS MILES OFF THE
COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MIDWEEK. AS
IT DOES...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE PLAINS INTO NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOW TO MID 80S FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR
DEEPENS. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING MAY REACH THE UPPER 50S IN THE
SOME OF THE NORMALLY COOLER AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST...AND
WE WILL SEE 60S ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  88  74  95  78  97 /  30  10  10   5   5
WACO, TX              90  72  96  75  97 /  40  20  20  10   5
PARIS, TX             86  69  93  72  94 /  30  10  10   5   5
DENTON, TX            88  71  95  75  96 /  30  10  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          86  69  93  73  95 /  30  10  10   5   5
DALLAS, TX            88  74  94  78  97 /  30  10  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           88  71  95  74  96 /  30  10  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         88  72  94  75  96 /  30  20  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            91  71  96  74  97 /  40  20  20  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  70  94  72  96 /  30  10  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

 459 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Showers are occurring across our central and northern counties, in a
rather moist airmass north of a stalled frontal boundary. The most
noteworthy is a persistent east-west band of showers with moderate
to heavy rain, extending from just east of San Angelo to just south
of Brownwood. The HRRR and TTU WRF pick up on these showers to some
extent, with a trend of dissipation between 12Z and 15Z. May need to
extend the higher PoPs from the overnight period past 12Z this
morning. Will monitor radar trends and update if needed.

During the day today, have a possibility for scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms in the moist airmass. Considerable cloud cover
will hold through early afternoon, and then should have a decrease
in cloud cover from the west and southwest later in the afternoon.
The extent and duration of cloud cover is expected to have an effect
on temperatures today. Going with highs in the lower to mid 80s.

Have a lingering slight chance PoP early tonight for our central and
southern counties. Otherwise, a decrease in cloud cover is expected
overnight. Given the recent rainfall and a moist airmass, will have
a possibility for patchy fog development late tonight, depending on
the extent of clearing. Temperatures will cool to near dewpoint
values overnight with light (southeast) winds.

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Sunday)

...A strong cold front will bring much cooler temperatures and
another chance of rainfall to the area by the end of the week...

South winds and much warmer temperatures return to the area Monday
through Wednesday, as a lee surface trough develops ahead of an
upper level trough moving east across the Rockies. Temperatures on
Monday will be near seasonal norms for this time of year, with
afternoon highs in the lower 90s. An isolated shower or thunderstorm
will be possible across far southeast counties during the
afternoon, otherwise dry conditions will prevail. Breezy south to
southwest winds and above normal temperatures return to the area
Tuesday and Wednesday with highs both days in the mid and upper
90s.

Big changes coming towards the end of the week as the aforementioned
upper trough tracks east across the Plains, sending a strong cold
front south across our area on Thursday. It will feel more like
fall behind the front Friday and Saturday with high temperatures
only in the middle/upper70s to lower 80s, with overnight lows in
the lower to middle 60s. We`ll also see another chance for showers
and thunderstorms along and behind the front Thursday into Friday.
Kept chance POPs in the forecast for now, but will likley need to
be raised further as model confidence increases. Below normal
temperatures continue for next Sunday but it will be a liitle
warmer with highs mainly in the middle 80s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  83  68  92  73  95 /  50  10  10   5   5
San Angelo  84  68  92  71  95 /  60  20  10   5   5
Junction  85  69  91  71  94 /  40  20  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19/JW








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

 1042 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE FLOOD WATCH THIS EVENING.

MAIN FCST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN/
FLOODING FROM THE WX SYSTEM THAT WL CROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT
24-48 HRS. THIS SITUATION WL BE CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT FM THE ONE
THAT PRODUCED THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING/SVR WX LAST WED NGT-
THU NGT. LAST WEEK/S HEAVY RAINS AND SVR WX WERE FUELED BY A VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH A WELL DEFINED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ACRS
THE AREA /RESULTING IN STEEP MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ AND
EXTREMELY MOIST AIR /SFC DWPTS AOA 70F/ FLOWING IN FM THE SW. THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING...THOUGH PRESENT...WAS FAIRLY SUBTLE.

THIS WEEKS SYSTEM HAS A MORE COOL-SEASON LOOK TO IT...WITH
CYCLONGENESIS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG A STG FRONTAL SYSTEM
DROPPING SWD FROM CANADA. THERE WL BE STG FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES FM THE SW. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE
WL ALSO FLOW INTO THE AREA FM THE S...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT IT DID
LAST WEEK.

ALTHOUGH THE DYNAMICS AND INFLUX OF MOISTURE COULD CERTAINLY
SUPPORT A HEAVY RAIN EVENT...THERE ARE ALSO SOME ASPECTS TO THIS
SYSTEM THAT COULD WORK TO MITIGATE THE RAIN POTENTIAL. FIRST...THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE SUPPORTING THE CYCLONE WL REMAIN OPEN...SO THE
SYSTEM WL PROBABLY MV THROUGH THE AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY.
SECOND...HEAVY PCPN WITH WELL DEVELOPED FRONTAL CYCLONES SUCH AS
THIS OFTEN SPLITS INTO THE PARTS. HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINS TYPICALLY
OCCUR S OF THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE...FOCUSED WHERE CONVERGENCE AT
THE NOSE OF THE LLJ IN THE WARM SECTORS GETS MAXIMIZED. HEAVY
STEADIER STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION TYPICALLY FALLS IN THE UPPER
DEFORMATION ZONE NW OF THE MID-LVL CIRCULATION CENTER...NW OF THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW. IN BETWEEN THESE AREAS...A FAST MOVG BAND OF
PCPN SURGES NEWD AHEAD OF AN UPR DRY SLOT. AND ALTHOUGH PCPN
WITHIN THIS BAND CAN BE HEAVY...THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT/SHORTER
DURATION TO THE PCPN WORKS AGAINST GETTING EXCESSIVE AMNTS. HAVE
SOME CONCERNS THAT THE BULK OF THE FCST AREA WL END UP IN THIS
SURGE REGION...WITH THE MAIN COMMA HEAD GETTING THROWN BACK OVER
NWRN WI AND CLIPPING THE NW CORNER OF THE FCST AREA...WHILE THE
PRIMARY AREA OF HEAVY CONVECTIVE PCPN GETS SHUNTED TO THE SE OF
THE FCST AREA.

WL NEED TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS. BUT EVEN IF THE FCST AREA DOESN/T RECEIVE THE
HEAVIEST RAINS...RIVERS ARE ALREADY RUNNING VERY HIGH FOR EARLY
AUTUMN...SO EVEN A MODEST RAIN WL PROBABLY RESULT IN MORE WATER
THAN THEY CAN HANDLE WITHOUT OVERFLOWING THEIR BANKS.

IN THE SHORT-TERM...INITIAL SHRA OVER NRN WL WERE WEAKENING/SHIFTG
NE. SML CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA OVER W-C WI WERE FORMING IN MOISTURE
AXIS ABV THE SFC. THE MOISTURE AXIS WL EXPAND NEWD AS THE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW VEERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LVL SHRTWV. BUT THAT WL
ALSO RESULT IN THE WEAKENING OF THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. EXPECT
THE THUNDER TO GRADUALLY DIE OFF AND THE SHRA TO TRACK ESE WITH
THE BULK OF THE PCPN EVENTUALLY SHIFTG TO THE S OF THE AREA BY
LATER TNGT.

UPDATED PRODUCT SUITE INCLUDING THE FFA WL BE OUT WITHIN ABOUT 1/2
HOUR.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EAST NORTHEAST OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...AN AREA OF
LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM AMERY TO PHILLIPS.  DRY AIR HAS
IMPEDED ITS PROGRESS SO FAR TODAY...BUT SHOULD SEE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR LIGHT RAIN TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON DESPITE HIGH CLOUD BASES.  MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS EXIST
BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS. THEN THERE IS A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA.  TIMING
OF PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE EVENING.  LIGHT RAIN IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING AND INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA
BY MID-EVENING.  DESPITE DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE
SHORTWAVE WILL OUTRUN THE MOISTURE AXIS BELOW 700MB...AND AM
COUNTING ON THE DRY AIR BELOW THIS LEVEL TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE ELSEWHERE.  BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...MID-LEVELS DRY OUT AS
SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES...BUT MODELS ALSO PROJECT AN INCREASE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...THIS LOOKS OVERDONE AND PROGGED SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK
DRY ABOVE 850MB OVERNIGHT.  WILL BACK OFF ON THE CLOUD COVER AS WELL
AS PRECIP CHANCES.  LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

TUESDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE EMERGES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A
SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AND THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WEAK THETAE ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING DURING THE
MORNING...BUT PROGGED SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY ABOVE 850MB.
WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO WAIT FOR DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION TO TAKE
PLACE FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OCCUR...STARTING EARLY AFTERNOON.  BY MID-AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD IMPROVE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.  ML CAPES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY REACH UP TO
1200 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS OF 20-25 KTS.  CANNOT FIND MUCH OF
A CAP BY 21Z...SO THINKING ISOLATED TO LOW END SCT SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  COULD SEE AN ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE THREAT
DEVELOP IF INSTABILITY REACHES ITS POTENTIAL.  HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014

PRIMARY FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD IS THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. STRONG CONVERGENCE WITH A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND H850 LOW TRACKING OVER THE STATE LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY COMBINED WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO A VERY
MOIST 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A SWATH OF HEAVY
RAIN STARTING TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
JUST ABOUT ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE RUNNING HIGH AND ANTICIPATED
AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY RAISE LEVELS TO FLOOD STAGE. THE POTENTIAL OF
A WIDESPREAD 1.50 TO AS HIGH AS 3.00 INCHES CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO STORMS COULD INCREASE THE
IMPACTS OF THE FLOODING ALONG THE RIVERS AS WELL AS FOR URBAN
AREAS. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...WILL GO WITH
THE FLOOD WATCH VARIETY FOR NOW DUE TO THE HIGHER POTENTIAL OF THE
RIVER FLOODING.

MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A SHOT OF BLUSTERY FALL WINDS WILL
POUR INTO THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. MINOR PRECIP CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

COOLER DRIER AIR REMAINS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE LIKELY CHANCE
OF THE FIRST FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINE OF THE SEASON FOR THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014

SML AREA OF SHRA OVER CENTRAL WI SHOULD SHIFT OFF TO THE SE.
OTHERWISE...WL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TAF PKG WITH THE NEW
ISSUANCE.
&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014

GUSTY SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WINDS MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MARINE AREA DEPENDING ON TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA... GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014

WILL ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN
ANTICIPATION FOR A WIDESPREAD 1.50 TO NEARLY 3 INCH AMOUNTS IN A
24 HOUR PERIOD. THE WATCH WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE AREA WHICH
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN LAST WEEK AND WHERE RIVER LEVELS AND STREAMS
REMAIN QUITE HIGH. SHOULD NOTE THAT EVEN THOUGH THE HEAVY RAIN
WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATER TUESDAY EVENING...MINOR
FLOODING MAY ACTUALLY START TUESDAY DUE TO HYDRO OPERATIONS
RELEASING WATER EARLY IN ADVANCE OF THE HEAVY RAIN. EVEN THOUGH
THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ENDING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RUNOFF
EFFECTS INTO AREA RIVES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO THURSDAY AND IF THE SCENARIO PANS OUT...WARNINGS WILL
PROBABLY BE GOING INTO AFFECT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-073-074.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
MARINE.........TDH
HYDROLOGY......TDH







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

 944 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014

.UPDATE...

CONVECTION TO THE WEST...DRIVEN BY SHORT WAVE TROUGH...IS
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO WRN WI...AWAY FROM BETTER INSTABILITY.
PUSHED POPS A BIT FARTHER NORTH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT STILL KEPT
ISOLATED/SCATTERED WORDING. WHILE HRRR AND OTHER RAPID UPDATE/MESO
MODELS NOT HANDLING THE NRN CONVECTIVE SEGMENT WELL...POSSIBLY
DUE TO DELAY IN CONVECTIVE SPIN UP?...THEY ALL FOCUS BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS OVER NE IA/NW IL CLOSER TO BETTER
MOISTURE AND THETA-E ADVECTION. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS BUT
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

WILL BE WATCHING SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS WRN WI FOR ANY POTENTIAL TO HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO
MOVE BEYOND KMSN AND REACH EASTERN TAF SITES...BUT AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR SHOULD LIMIT EASTWARD EXTENT AND EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO SEE
WEAKENING TREND.

SREF VSBY PROBABILITIES SHOW KMSN MAY SEE SOME
MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AROUND 12Z...SIMILAR TO 12Z MET AND 18Z MAV
GUIDANCE...HOWEVER LATEST NAM12 KEEPS LOWER VSBYS WEST AND SOUTH
OF WI. IF KMSN GETS A SHOWER OR TWO...MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. WILL MONITOR AND ADD IF NEEDED
AT ISSUANCE TIME BUT WILL BE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD IF AT ALL. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.

LATEST NAM POPS SOME QPF OVER S CENTRAL WI BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z
WED WITH LEADING EDGE OF INCREASING 850 MB WINDS...BUT IN LINE
WITH EARLIER OPERATIONAL RUNS AND HOLDING OFF MAIN ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAINS UNTIL STRONG LLJ NOSES INTO SRN WI AFTER 06Z.
STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS STILL A CONCERN AS THE
LOW-LEVEL WINDS REACH AT LEAST 40-50 KNOTS...WITH POSSIBLE 60
KNOT WINDS IF THE NAM VERIFIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014/

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

KEPT SOME CHANCE POPS GOING FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKS LIKE BETTER SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND WARM ADVECTION WILL REMAIN WILL BE ACROSS THESE AREAS.
THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO OVERCOME...SO MAY
SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF VIRGA UNTIL THE LOWER LEVELS CAN GET SOMEWHAT
SATURATED. KEPT QPF AMOUNTS ON THE LOW END THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 UNDER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. IT WILL BE A BIT
COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO THE WINDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FOR A SEASONABLY VERY STRONG SFC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK ROUGHLY ALONG A LA CROSSE TO GREEN
BAY LINE ON WEDNESDAY. NO NEED TO REHASH ALL THE DETAILS. IT IS AN
INTENSE SYSTEM WITH DEEP...INTENSE OMEGA...MOISTURE VALUES THAT
ARE MAXING OUT ON THE PERCENTILE RANKINGS...SLAMMED IN HERE ON AN
INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET. THE CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS MAINLY
FOR HIGH WIND. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WON/T BE MOVING IN HERE
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...MORE LIKE 3 AM WED MORNING AND EXITING BY
LATE WED MORNING. WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN
IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER STORMS DURING THIS TIME...PRODUCING QUICK
WET MICROBURST TYPE EVENTS. THE SHEAR WILL BE VERY HIGH...BUT
CAPE...ESPECIALLY SURFACE BASED...WILL BE RATHER LIMITED.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE EXCESSIVE AND SHOULD
RANGE FROM 1.5 TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNT
EXPECTED WEST AND NORTH OF MADISON. WE/LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING THREATS. MOST OF OUR RIVERS ARE
WELL BELOW STAGES OF CONCERN. THE FEW THAT MIGHT BE A PROBLEM ARE
THE WISCONSIN RIVER UP BY THE DELLS AND SOME OF OUR RIVERS
SOUTHWEST OF MADISON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MADISON AROUND 18Z WED AND 21Z
WED AT MILWAUKEE. THAT WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT DOWN ANY RAIN AS
COOLER DRIER AIR FLOWS IN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND BRINGS WITH IT SOME VERY CHILLY
CANADIAN AIR. LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY
BEGIN TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL NOT GET
OUT OF THE 50S.

FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A SHARP MID LEVEL TROF WILL QUICKLY DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND SHOULD TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION.  STILL QUITE CHILLY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY
PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY MODIFYING TEMPERATURES AS THE HIGH SLIDES
EAST LATER IN THE WEEKEND. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO
THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST OF MADISON TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL SEE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW STORMS AT TIMES
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. WAVES
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DAVIS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

 855 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE FLOOD WATCH THIS EVENING.

MAIN FCST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN/
FLOODING FROM THE WX SYSTEM THAT WL CROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT
24-48 HRS. THIS SITUATION WL BE CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT FM THE ONE
THAT PRODUCED THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING/SVR WX LAST WED NGT-
THU NGT. LAST WEEK/S HEAVY RAINS AND SVR WX WERE FUELED BY A VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH A WELL DEFINED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ACRS
THE AREA /RESULTING IN STEEP MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ AND
EXTREMELY MOIST AIR /SFC DWPTS AOA 70F/ FLOWING IN FM THE SW. THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING...THOUGH PRESENT...WAS FAIRLY SUBTLE.

THIS WEEKS SYSTEM HAS A MORE COOL-SEASON LOOK TO IT...WITH
CYCLONGENESIS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG A STG FRONTAL SYSTEM
DROPPING SWD FROM CANADA. THERE WL BE STG FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES FM THE SW. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE
WL ALSO FLOW INTO THE AREA FM THE S...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT IT DID
LAST WEEK.

ALTHOUGH THE DYNAMICS AND INFLUX OF MOISTURE COULD CERTAINLY
SUPPORT A HEAVY RAIN EVENT...THERE ARE ALSO SOME ASPECTS TO THIS
SYSTEM THAT COULD WORK TO MITIGATE THE RAIN POTENTIAL. FIRST...THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE SUPPORTING THE CYCLONE WL REMAIN OPEN...SO THE
SYSTEM WL PROBABLY MV THROUGH THE AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY.
SECOND...HEAVY PCPN WITH WELL DEVELOPED FRONTAL CYCLONES SUCH AS
THIS OFTEN SPLITS INTO THE PARTS. HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINS TYPICALLY
OCCUR S OF THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE...FOCUSED WHERE CONVERGENCE AT
THE NOSE OF THE LLJ IN THE WARM SECTORS GETS MAXIMIZED. HEAVY
STEADIER STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION TYPICALLY FALLS IN THE UPPER
DEFORMATION ZONE NW OF THE MID-LVL CIRCULATION CENTER...NW OF THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW. IN BETWEEN THESE AREAS...A FAST MOVG BAND OF
PCPN SURGES NEWD AHEAD OF AN UPR DRY SLOT. AND ALTHOUGH PCPN
WITHIN THIS BAND CAN BE HEAVY...THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT/SHORTER
DURATION TO THE PCPN WORKS AGAINST GETTING EXCESSIVE AMNTS. HAVE
SOME CONCERNS THAT THE BULK OF THE FCST AREA WL END UP IN THIS
SURGE REGION...WITH THE MAIN COMMA HEAD GETTING THROWN BACK OVER
NWRN WI AND CLIPPING THE NW CORNER OF THE FCST AREA...WHILE THE
PRIMARY AREA OF HEAVY CONVECTIVE PCPN GETS SHUNTED TO THE SE OF
THE FCST AREA.

WL NEED TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS. BUT EVEN IF THE FCST AREA DOESN/T RECEIVE THE
HEAVIEST RAINS...RIVERS ARE ALREADY RUNNING VERY HIGH FOR EARLY
AUTUMN...SO EVEN A MODEST RAIN WL PROBABLY RESULT IN MORE WATER
THAN THEY CAN HANDLE WITHOUT OVERFLOWING THEIR BANKS.

IN THE SHORT-TERM...INITIAL SHRA OVER NRN WL WERE WEAKENING/SHIFTG
NE. SML CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA OVER W-C WI WERE FORMING IN MOISTURE
AXIS ABV THE SFC. THE MOISTURE AXIS WL EXPAND NEWD AS THE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW VEERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LVL SHRTWV. BUT THAT WL
ALSO RESULT IN THE WEAKENING OF THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. EXPECT
THE THUNDER TO GRADUALLY DIE OFF AND THE SHRA TO TRACK ESE WITH
THE BULK OF THE PCPN EVENTUALLY SHIFTG TO THE S OF THE AREA BY
LATER TNGT.

UPDATED PRODUCT SUITE INCLUDING THE FFA WL BE OUT WITHIN ABOUT 1/2
HOUR.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EAST NORTHEAST OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...AN AREA OF
LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM AMERY TO PHILLIPS.  DRY AIR HAS
IMPEDED ITS PROGRESS SO FAR TODAY...BUT SHOULD SEE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR LIGHT RAIN TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON DESPITE HIGH CLOUD BASES.  MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS EXIST
BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS. THEN THERE IS A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA.  TIMING
OF PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE EVENING.  LIGHT RAIN IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING AND INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA
BY MID-EVENING.  DESPITE DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE
SHORTWAVE WILL OUTRUN THE MOISTURE AXIS BELOW 700MB...AND AM
COUNTING ON THE DRY AIR BELOW THIS LEVEL TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE ELSEWHERE.  BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...MID-LEVELS DRY OUT AS
SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES...BUT MODELS ALSO PROJECT AN INCREASE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...THIS LOOKS OVERDONE AND PROGGED SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK
DRY ABOVE 850MB OVERNIGHT.  WILL BACK OFF ON THE CLOUD COVER AS WELL
AS PRECIP CHANCES.  LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

TUESDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE EMERGES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A
SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AND THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WEAK THETAE ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING DURING THE
MORNING...BUT PROGGED SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY ABOVE 850MB.
WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO WAIT FOR DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION TO TAKE
PLACE FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OCCUR...STARTING EARLY AFTERNOON.  BY MID-AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD IMPROVE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.  ML CAPES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY REACH UP TO
1200 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS OF 20-25 KTS.  CANNOT FIND MUCH OF
A CAP BY 21Z...SO THINKING ISOLATED TO LOW END SCT SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  COULD SEE AN ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE THREAT
DEVELOP IF INSTABILITY REACHES ITS POTENTIAL.  HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014

PRIMARY FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD IS THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. STRONG CONVERGENCE WITH A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND H850 LOW TRACKING OVER THE STATE LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY COMBINED WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO A VERY
MOIST 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A SWATH OF HEAVY
RAIN STARTING TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
JUST ABOUT ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE RUNNING HIGH AND ANTICIPATED
AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY RAISE LEVELS TO FLOOD STAGE. THE POTENTIAL OF
A WIDESPREAD 1.50 TO AS HIGH AS 3.00 INCHES CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO STORMS COULD INCREASE THE
IMPACTS OF THE FLOODING ALONG THE RIVERS AS WELL AS FOR URBAN
AREAS. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...WILL GO WITH
THE FLOOD WATCH VARIETY FOR NOW DUE TO THE HIGHER POTENTIAL OF THE
RIVER FLOODING.

MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A SHOT OF BLUSTERY FALL WINDS WILL
POUR INTO THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. MINOR PRECIP CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

COOLER DRIER AIR REMAINS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE LIKELY CHANCE
OF THE FIRST FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINE OF THE SEASON FOR THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014

SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE IN ORDER FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACRS N-C WL LINGER LONGER THAN INITIALLY
EXPECTED. ALSO...NEEDED TO ACCOUT FOR SML AREA OF SHRA AND EVEN
SOME TSRA MOVG TOWARD CENTRAL WI FM SE MN. THINK THE THUNDER WILL
DIE OFF BEFORE MAKING IT INTO THE AREA...BUT THE RAIN MAY NOT.
FINALLY...HIT CLDS HARDER THE REST OF THE NGT AND TOMORROW...ALONG
WITH SOME MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS/VSBYS ACRS PORTIONS OF C/N-C WI.
&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014

GUSTY SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WINDS MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MARINE AREA DEPENDING ON TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA... GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014

WILL ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN
ANTICIPATION FOR A WIDESPREAD 1.50 TO NEARLY 3 INCH AMOUNTS IN A
24 HOUR PERIOD. THE WATCH WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE AREA WHICH
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN LAST WEEK AND WHERE RIVER LEVELS AND STREAMS
REMAIN QUITE HIGH. SHOULD NOTE THAT EVEN THOUGH THE HEAVY RAIN
WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATER TUESDAY EVENING...MINOR
FLOODING MAY ACTUALLY START TUESDAY DUE TO HYDRO OPERATIONS
RELEASING WATER EARLY IN ADVANCE OF THE HEAVY RAIN. EVEN THOUGH
THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ENDING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RUNOFF
EFFECTS INTO AREA RIVES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO THURSDAY AND IF THE SCENARIO PANS OUT...WARNINGS WILL
PROBABLY BE GOING INTO AFFECT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-073-074.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
MARINE.........TDH
HYDROLOGY......TDH










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

 639 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EAST NORTHEAST OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...AN AREA OF
LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM AMERY TO PHILLIPS.  DRY AIR HAS
IMPEDED ITS PROGRESS SO FAR TODAY...BUT SHOULD SEE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR LIGHT RAIN TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON DESPITE HIGH CLOUD BASES.  MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS EXIST
BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS. THEN THERE IS A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA.  TIMING
OF PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE EVENING.  LIGHT RAIN IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING AND INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA
BY MID-EVENING.  DESPITE DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE
SHORTWAVE WILL OUTRUN THE MOISTURE AXIS BELOW 700MB...AND AM
COUNTING ON THE DRY AIR BELOW THIS LEVEL TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE ELSEWHERE.  BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...MID-LEVELS DRY OUT AS
SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES...BUT MODELS ALSO PROJECT AN INCREASE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...THIS LOOKS OVERDONE AND PROGGED SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK
DRY ABOVE 850MB OVERNIGHT.  WILL BACK OFF ON THE CLOUD COVER AS WELL
AS PRECIP CHANCES.  LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

TUESDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE EMERGES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A
SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AND THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WEAK THETAE ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING DURING THE
MORNING...BUT PROGGED SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY ABOVE 850MB.
WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO WAIT FOR DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION TO TAKE
PLACE FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OCCUR...STARTING EARLY AFTERNOON.  BY MID-AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD IMPROVE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.  ML CAPES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY REACH UP TO
1200 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS OF 20-25 KTS.  CANNOT FIND MUCH OF
A CAP BY 21Z...SO THINKING ISOLATED TO LOW END SCT SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  COULD SEE AN ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE THREAT
DEVELOP IF INSTABILITY REACHES ITS POTENTIAL.  HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014

PRIMARY FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD IS THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. STRONG CONVERGENCE WITH A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND H850 LOW TRACKING OVER THE STATE LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY COMBINED WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO A VERY
MOIST 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A SWATH OF HEAVY
RAIN STARTING TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
JUST ABOUT ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE RUNNING HIGH AND ANTICIPATED
AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY RAISE LEVELS TO FLOOD STAGE. THE POTENTIAL OF
A WIDESPREAD 1.50 TO AS HIGH AS 3.00 INCHES CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO STORMS COULD INCREASE THE
IMPACTS OF THE FLOODING ALONG THE RIVERS AS WELL AS FOR URBAN
AREAS. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...WILL GO WITH
THE FLOOD WATCH VARIETY FOR NOW DUE TO THE HIGHER POTENTIAL OF THE
RIVER FLOODING.

MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A SHOT OF BLUSTERY FALL WINDS WILL
POUR INTO THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. MINOR PRECIP CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

COOLER DRIER AIR REMAINS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE LIKELY CHANCE
OF THE FIRST FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINE OF THE SEASON FOR THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014

SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE IN ORDER FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACRS N-C WL LINGER LONGER THAN INITIALLY
EXPECTED. ALSO...NEEDED TO ACCOUT FOR SML AREA OF SHRA AND EVEN
SOME TSRA MOVG TOWARD CENTRAL WI FM SE MN. THINK THE THUNDER WILL
DIE OFF BEFORE MAKING IT INTO THE AREA...BUT THE RAIN MAY NOT.
FINALLY...HIT CLDS HARDER THE REST OF THE NGT AND TOMORROW...ALONG
WITH SOME MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS/VSBYS ACRS PORTIONS OF C/N-C WI.
&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014

GUSTY SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WINDS MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MARINE AREA DEPENDING ON TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA... GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014

WILL ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN
ANTICIPATION FOR A WIDESPREAD 1.50 TO NEARLY 3 INCH AMOUNTS IN A
24 HOUR PERIOD. THE WATCH WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE AREA WHICH
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN LAST WEEK AND WHERE RIVER LEVELS AND STREAMS
REMAIN QUITE HIGH. SHOULD NOTE THAT EVEN THOUGH THE HEAVY RAIN
WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATER TUESDAY EVENING...MINOR
FLOODING MAY ACTUALLY START TUESDAY DUE TO HYDRO OPERATIONS
RELEASING WATER EARLY IN ADVANCE OF THE HEAVY RAIN. EVEN THOUGH
THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ENDING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RUNOFF
EFFECTS INTO AREA RIVES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO THURSDAY AND IF THE SCENARIO PANS OUT...WARNINGS WILL
PROBABLY BE GOING INTO AFFECT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-073-074.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
MARINE.........TDH
HYDROLOGY......TDH








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 1232 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2014

CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED NORTHWEST FLOW FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...THOUGH A FAIRLY POTENT TROUGH WAS BEGINNING TO BUCK THIS
FLOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE NORTHWEST FLOW HAS
HELPED PRODUCE A DRYING...SUBSIDENT REGIME OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...SEEN NICELY ON REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER PLOTS SHOWING BETWEEN 0.5-0.75 INCHES OR 50-90 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. THIS DRY AIR HAS RESULTED IN BASICALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE UPPER MIDWEST. SURFACE PATTERN FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A WARM FRONT FROM
NORTHERN MN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WYOMING. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH...CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR HAS ALLOWED FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE MID 40S AT THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IN
CENTRAL WI. ABOVE THE SURFACE...HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING
DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE MOUNTAINS. 925MB TEMPS ARE
16-18C PER LATEST RAP ANALYSIS COMPARED TO AROUND 12C 24 HOURS AGO.

QUIET CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND THE DRY
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT. STILL AT 12Z MONDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER
PROGS ONLY SHOW VALUES OF 0.5-0.75 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SURFACE HIGH DOES DRIFT OFF TO THE
EAST...WHICH ALLOWS FOR A RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THIS RETURN FLOW HELPS PULL A SURGE OF 1-1.25 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO SOUTHWEST MN BY 12Z MONDAY.
ADDITIONALLY...A SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT
SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERY CONVECTION BREAKING OUT AROUND THE SIOUX
FALLS AREA. SOME CIRRUS SPREADING OFF THIS PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE TODAY FROM WHERE THEY
ARE NOW...HOLDING IN THAT 16-18C RANGE. STILL...THESE ARE 2-4C
WARMER THAN WHAT WE STARTED OFF WITH AT 12Z SATURDAY. THUS WITH
PLENTY OF SUN AGAIN HIGHS SHOULD END UP A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. AN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES STAY A BIT
WARMER AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG/WEST OF
THE MS RIVER WHERE A TIGHTER GRADIENT EXISTS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2014

THE SHORTWAVE THAT COMES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING THE SURGE OF SOMEWHAT
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER INTO THE REGION AND THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
AS WELL. ITS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA GIVEN THE INITIAL DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS IS
REFLECTED WELL IN THE 07.00Z NAM KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA DRY AND
SREF TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY DRYING THE PRECIPITATION UP. THE
TYPICALLY WETTER GFS SPREADS PRECIPITATION INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA...BUT SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO RELATIVELY DRY. FOR NOW...HAVE
CONFINED ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO AFTER 18Z WEST OF THE MS RIVER
AND KEPT THE CHANCES AROUND 20. GIVEN THAT THE INSTABILITY AXIS
LOOKS TO STAY WEST OF I-35 DURING THE DAY...DO NOT HAVE ANY THUNDER
MENTIONED. A BETTER SHOT FOR PRECIPITATION EXISTS MONDAY NIGHT...
MAINLY ACROSS IOWA...AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THAT
STATE AND THE NOSE OF A SURGE OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT POINTS IN
FOR A TIME. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO TODAY GIVEN
SIMILAR 925MB TEMPS...POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
FOR MIXING. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY WARMER WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS...CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND CLOUD COVER ALL
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS UP.

THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO BE THE ACTIVE PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST...CAUSED BY A VARIETY OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES INFLUENCING
OR IMPACTING THE AREA. THE FIRST FEATURE IS THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA WHICH DIGS INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...SETTING UP SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND A STRONG
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW TOWARDS THE AREA. THE SECOND
FEATURE IS A COLLECTION OF SHORTWAVES THAT DEVELOP OFF THE COLORADO
MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...WHICH GET CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
LIFTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 07.00Z NAM AND
ECMWF EVEN SUGGESTS THESE SHORTWAVES WILL PHASE WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THE THIRD FEATURE IS A PLUME OF EAST PACIFIC
TROPICAL MOISTURE SEEN EAST OF HURRICANE NORBERT ON WATER VAPOR...
WHICH LOOKS TO GET PULLED UP INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALSO ON TUESDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISCUSSION HIGHLIGHTS...TUESDAY NIGHT IS THE
CENTER POINT FOR PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME SLIGHT
MODEL DIFFERENCES...PARTICULARLY WITH TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SURFACE SYSTEM...ALL MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SPREADING SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED STORMS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE
CONTINUED TO RAISE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. CAPE IS FAIRLY MEAGER
GIVEN LAPSE RATES NOT MUCH HIGHER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC...WHICH WILL
LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER. ON THE OTHER HAND...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACHING 4-4.5 KM...PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBING TO 2 INCHES AND
STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSING INTO THE AREA FAVOR HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL. LUCKILY THE FLOW LOOKS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO
PREVENT FLOODING. WEDNESDAY IS TRICKY AS THE SYSTEM COULD BE HEADING
OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING DRIER AND SUBSIDENT AIR TO INFILTRATE THE
REGION. STILL A CONSENSUS EXISTS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE AROUND
ACROSS WISCONSIN. IF THE SYSTEM WOULD SLOW UP...THERE WOULD BE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR DESTABILIZATION AND SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN STRONG WIND
FIELD. HOWEVER...THIS SEEMS TO BE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS
POINT. IN THE RAINFALL DEPARTMENT...LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD PICK UP 1-2
INCHES FROM THIS SYSTEM.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM...ITS ALL ABOUT THE COLD AIR. THE FIRST
SURGE COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 925MB TEMPS DROPPING TO 4-
6C BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS CAUSES BOTH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS
ON THURSDAY TO TAKE A BIG HIT. EVEN COLDER AIR SURGES IN FOR
FRIDAY...RESULTING FROM AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS FEATURE SENDS 925MB TEMPS DOWN TO 2-4C BY 12Z FRI WITH ONLY
SLIGHT MODERATION DURING THE DAY. A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND COMBINED
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-90
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WILL REALLY MAKE IT
FEEL LIKE FALL. HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD APPEAR TO STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST
FORMATION IN LIKELY THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS. DRY CONDITIONS AND SLOW
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH EXISTS AND SUNSHINE HELPS WARM THE AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AT
07.1730Z WILL MOVE EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...RESULTING
IN A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WIND FROM 4 TO 8 KTS AT KRST/KLSE AFTER
SUNSET. A DRY NEAR SURFACE LAYER COMBINED WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF
THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION OF AT LEAST 20 KTS SHOULD LIMIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH 08.11Z
AFTER WHICH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ALOFT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION...ROGERS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 639 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2014

CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED NORTHWEST FLOW FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...THOUGH A FAIRLY POTENT TROUGH WAS BEGINNING TO BUCK THIS
FLOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE NORTHWEST FLOW HAS
HELPED PRODUCE A DRYING...SUBSIDENT REGIME OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...SEEN NICELY ON REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER PLOTS SHOWING BETWEEN 0.5-0.75 INCHES OR 50-90 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. THIS DRY AIR HAS RESULTED IN BASICALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE UPPER MIDWEST. SURFACE PATTERN FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A WARM FRONT FROM
NORTHERN MN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WYOMING. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH...CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR HAS ALLOWED FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE MID 40S AT THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IN
CENTRAL WI. ABOVE THE SURFACE...HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING
DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE MOUNTAINS. 925MB TEMPS ARE
16-18C PER LATEST RAP ANALYSIS COMPARED TO AROUND 12C 24 HOURS AGO.

QUIET CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND THE DRY
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT. STILL AT 12Z MONDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER
PROGS ONLY SHOW VALUES OF 0.5-0.75 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SURFACE HIGH DOES DRIFT OFF TO THE
EAST...WHICH ALLOWS FOR A RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THIS RETURN FLOW HELPS PULL A SURGE OF 1-1.25 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO SOUTHWEST MN BY 12Z MONDAY.
ADDITIONALLY...A SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT
SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERY CONVECTION BREAKING OUT AROUND THE SIOUX
FALLS AREA. SOME CIRRUS SPREADING OFF THIS PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE TODAY FROM WHERE THEY
ARE NOW...HOLDING IN THAT 16-18C RANGE. STILL...THESE ARE 2-4C
WARMER THAN WHAT WE STARTED OFF WITH AT 12Z SATURDAY. THUS WITH
PLENTY OF SUN AGAIN HIGHS SHOULD END UP A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. AN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES STAY A BIT
WARMER AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG/WEST OF
THE MS RIVER WHERE A TIGHTER GRADIENT EXISTS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2014

THE SHORTWAVE THAT COMES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING THE SURGE OF SOMEWHAT
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER INTO THE REGION AND THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
AS WELL. ITS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA GIVEN THE INITIAL DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS IS
REFLECTED WELL IN THE 07.00Z NAM KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA DRY AND
SREF TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY DRYING THE PRECIPITATION UP. THE
TYPICALLY WETTER GFS SPREADS PRECIPITATION INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA...BUT SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO RELATIVELY DRY. FOR NOW...HAVE
CONFINED ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO AFTER 18Z WEST OF THE MS RIVER
AND KEPT THE CHANCES AROUND 20. GIVEN THAT THE INSTABILITY AXIS
LOOKS TO STAY WEST OF I-35 DURING THE DAY...DO NOT HAVE ANY THUNDER
MENTIONED. A BETTER SHOT FOR PRECIPITATION EXISTS MONDAY NIGHT...
MAINLY ACROSS IOWA...AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THAT
STATE AND THE NOSE OF A SURGE OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT POINTS IN
FOR A TIME. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO TODAY GIVEN
SIMILAR 925MB TEMPS...POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
FOR MIXING. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY WARMER WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS...CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND CLOUD COVER ALL
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS UP.

THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO BE THE ACTIVE PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST...CAUSED BY A VARIETY OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES INFLUENCING
OR IMPACTING THE AREA. THE FIRST FEATURE IS THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA WHICH DIGS INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...SETTING UP SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND A STRONG
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW TOWARDS THE AREA. THE SECOND
FEATURE IS A COLLECTION OF SHORTWAVES THAT DEVELOP OFF THE COLORADO
MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...WHICH GET CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
LIFTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 07.00Z NAM AND
ECMWF EVEN SUGGESTS THESE SHORTWAVES WILL PHASE WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THE THIRD FEATURE IS A PLUME OF EAST PACIFIC
TROPICAL MOISTURE SEEN EAST OF HURRICANE NORBERT ON WATER VAPOR...
WHICH LOOKS TO GET PULLED UP INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALSO ON TUESDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISCUSSION HIGHLIGHTS...TUESDAY NIGHT IS THE
CENTER POINT FOR PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME SLIGHT
MODEL DIFFERENCES...PARTICULARLY WITH TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SURFACE SYSTEM...ALL MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SPREADING SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED STORMS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE
CONTINUED TO RAISE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. CAPE IS FAIRLY MEAGER
GIVEN LAPSE RATES NOT MUCH HIGHER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC...WHICH WILL
LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER. ON THE OTHER HAND...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACHING 4-4.5 KM...PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBING TO 2 INCHES AND
STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSING INTO THE AREA FAVOR HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL. LUCKILY THE FLOW LOOKS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO
PREVENT FLOODING. WEDNESDAY IS TRICKY AS THE SYSTEM COULD BE HEADING
OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING DRIER AND SUBSIDENT AIR TO INFILTRATE THE
REGION. STILL A CONSENSUS EXISTS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE AROUND
ACROSS WISCONSIN. IF THE SYSTEM WOULD SLOW UP...THERE WOULD BE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR DESTABILIZATION AND SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN STRONG WIND
FIELD. HOWEVER...THIS SEEMS TO BE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS
POINT. IN THE RAINFALL DEPARTMENT...LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD PICK UP 1-2
INCHES FROM THIS SYSTEM.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM...ITS ALL ABOUT THE COLD AIR. THE FIRST
SURGE COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 925MB TEMPS DROPPING TO 4-
6C BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS CAUSES BOTH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS
ON THURSDAY TO TAKE A BIG HIT. EVEN COLDER AIR SURGES IN FOR
FRIDAY...RESULTING FROM AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS FEATURE SENDS 925MB TEMPS DOWN TO 2-4C BY 12Z FRI WITH ONLY
SLIGHT MODERATION DURING THE DAY. A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND COMBINED
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-90
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WILL REALLY MAKE IT
FEEL LIKE FALL. HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD APPEAR TO STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST
FORMATION IN LIKELY THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS. DRY CONDITIONS AND SLOW
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH EXISTS AND SUNSHINE HELPS WARM THE AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z  MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST TODAY/
TONIGHT. AS IT DOES...IT WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE TAF SITES THRU MON MORNING...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES/GOOD VFR
CONDITIONS. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES AWAY...GRADIENT WINDS
WILL BE MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY VS. THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. GRADIENT REMAINS ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH WINDS
MOSTLY IN THE 8-12KT RANGE TODAY AND 5-8KT RANGE TONIGHT. THESE
WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD LIMIT ANY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING BR/FG IN THE
LARGER RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION.....RRS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 240 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2014

CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED NORTHWEST FLOW FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...THOUGH A FAIRLY POTENT TROUGH WAS BEGINNING TO BUCK THIS
FLOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE NORTHWEST FLOW HAS
HELPED PRODUCE A DRYING...SUBSIDENT REGIME OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...SEEN NICELY ON REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER PLOTS SHOWING BETWEEN 0.5-0.75 INCHES OR 50-90 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. THIS DRY AIR HAS RESULTED IN BASICALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE UPPER MIDWEST. SURFACE PATTERN FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A WARM FRONT FROM
NORTHERN MN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WYOMING. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH...CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR HAS ALLOWED FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE MID 40S AT THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IN
CENTRAL WI. ABOVE THE SURFACE...HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING
DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE MOUNTAINS. 925MB TEMPS ARE
16-18C PER LATEST RAP ANALYSIS COMPARED TO AROUND 12C 24 HOURS AGO.

QUIET CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND THE DRY
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT. STILL AT 12Z MONDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER
PROGS ONLY SHOW VALUES OF 0.5-0.75 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SURFACE HIGH DOES DRIFT OFF TO THE
EAST...WHICH ALLOWS FOR A RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THIS RETURN FLOW HELPS PULL A SURGE OF 1-1.25 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO SOUTHWEST MN BY 12Z MONDAY.
ADDITIONALLY...A SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT
SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERY CONVECTION BREAKING OUT AROUND THE SIOUX
FALLS AREA. SOME CIRRUS SPREADING OFF THIS PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE TODAY FROM WHERE THEY
ARE NOW...HOLDING IN THAT 16-18C RANGE. STILL...THESE ARE 2-4C
WARMER THAN WHAT WE STARTED OFF WITH AT 12Z SATURDAY. THUS WITH
PLENTY OF SUN AGAIN HIGHS SHOULD END UP A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. AN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES STAY A BIT
WARMER AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG/WEST OF
THE MS RIVER WHERE A TIGHTER GRADIENT EXISTS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2014

THE SHORTWAVE THAT COMES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING THE SURGE OF SOMEWHAT
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER INTO THE REGION AND THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
AS WELL. ITS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA GIVEN THE INITIAL DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS IS
REFLECTED WELL IN THE 07.00Z NAM KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA DRY AND
SREF TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY DRYING THE PRECIPITATION UP. THE
TYPICALLY WETTER GFS SPREADS PRECIPITATION INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA...BUT SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO RELATIVELY DRY. FOR NOW...HAVE
CONFINED ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO AFTER 18Z WEST OF THE MS RIVER
AND KEPT THE CHANCES AROUND 20. GIVEN THAT THE INSTABILITY AXIS
LOOKS TO STAY WEST OF I-35 DURING THE DAY...DO NOT HAVE ANY THUNDER
MENTIONED. A BETTER SHOT FOR PRECIPITATION EXISTS MONDAY NIGHT...
MAINLY ACROSS IOWA...AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THAT
STATE AND THE NOSE OF A SURGE OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT POINTS IN
FOR A TIME. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO TODAY GIVEN
SIMILAR 925MB TEMPS...POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
FOR MIXING. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY WARMER WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS...CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND CLOUD COVER ALL
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS UP.

THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO BE THE ACTIVE PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST...CAUSED BY A VARIETY OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES INFLUENCING
OR IMPACTING THE AREA. THE FIRST FEATURE IS THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA WHICH DIGS INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...SETTING UP SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND A STRONG
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW TOWARDS THE AREA. THE SECOND
FEATURE IS A COLLECTION OF SHORTWAVES THAT DEVELOP OFF THE COLORADO
MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...WHICH GET CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
LIFTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 07.00Z NAM AND
ECMWF EVEN SUGGESTS THESE SHORTWAVES WILL PHASE WITH THE
AFORMENTIONED TROUGH. THE THIRD FEATURE IS A PLUME OF EAST PACIFIC
TROPICAL MOISTURE SEEN EAST OF HURRICANE NORBERT ON WATER VAPOR...
WHICH LOOKS TO GET PULLED UP INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALSO ON TUESDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISCUSSION HIGHLIGHTS...TUESDAY NIGHT IS THE
CENTER POINT FOR PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME SLIGHT
MODEL DIFFERENCES...PARTICULARLY WITH TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SURFACE SYSTEM...ALL MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SPREADING SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED STORMS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE
CONTINUED TO RAISE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. CAPE IS FAIRLY MEAGER
GIVEN LAPSE RATES NOT MUCH HIGHER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC...WHICH WILL
LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER. ON THE OTHER HAND...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACHING 4-4.5 KM...PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBING TO 2 INCHES AND
STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSING INTO THE AREA FAVOR HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL. LUCKILY THE FLOW LOOKS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO
PREVENT FLOODING. WEDNESDAY IS TRICKY AS THE SYSTEM COULD BE HEADING
OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING DRIER AND SUBSIDENT AIR TO INFILTRATE THE
REGION. STILL A CONSENSUS EXISTS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE AROUND
ACROSS WISCONSIN. IF THE SYSTEM WOULD SLOW UP...THERE WOULD BE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR DESTABILIZATION AND SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN STRONG WIND
FIELD. HOWEVER...THIS SEEMS TO BE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS
POINT. IN THE RAINFALL DEPARTMENT...LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD PICK UP 1-2
INCHES FROM THIS SYSTEM.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM...ITS ALL ABOUT THE COLD AIR. THE FIRST
SURGE COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 925MB TEMPS DROPPING TO 4-
6C BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS CAUSES BOTH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS
ON THURSDAY TO TAKE A BIG HIT. EVEN COLDER AIR SURGES IN FOR
FRIDAY...RESULTING FROM AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS FEATURE SENDS 925MB TEMPS DOWN TO 2-4C BY 12Z FRI WITH ONLY
SLIGHT MODERATION DURING THE DAY. A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND COMBINED
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-90
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WILL REALLY MAKE IT
FEEL LIKE FALL. HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD APPEAR TO STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST
FORMATION IN LIKELY THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS. DRY CONDITIONS AND SLOW
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH EXISTS AND SUNSHINE HELPS WARM THE AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...MAINTAINING A GENERAL WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE
AT THE TAF SITES. EXPECT THIS BREEZE TO HOLD DRY AIR IN PLACE...
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AND REALLY VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER.
THE ONLY CONCERN WOULD BE VALLEY FOG AT LSE THIS MORNING. A
STRATUS DECK WAS FORMING OVER THE MS RIVER BETWEEN 04-05Z DUE TO
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE VALLEY AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THOSE WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE IN A FEW
HOURS TO 10 TO 20 KT RIGHT ABOVE THE SITE IN THE VALLEY. THIS WIND
SHOULD PROHIBIT ANY FOG FROM FORMING AT LSE AND MAY EVEN CAUSE THE
STRATUS TO CLEAR OUT. NEARBY VALLEYS WHICH HAVE MORE SHELTERING
SHOULD SEE FOG AND THUS VCFG REMAINS MENTIONED IN THE LSE TAF. DID
ADD A MENTION OF SCT LIFR STRATUS WITH THE VCFG TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS...THOUGH.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AJ




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

 912 PM MDT MON SEP 8 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM MDT MON SEP 8 2014

LATEST RETURNS FROM KCYS SHOWS INITIAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION
LIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST THRU CONVERSE AND NRN PLATTE
COUNTIES...WITH THE NEXT BAND LIFTING NE OUT OF NRN COLORADO.
LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS. SO...HAVE BOOSTED POPS ACROSS MANY
AREAS DURING THAT PERIOD GIVEN THE EXPECTED AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THAT TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM MDT MON SEP 8 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT MAINLY
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. LATE TONIGHT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL SPREAD
NORTH AND EAST INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH
GENERALLY SHOWERS OVER THE AREA AS THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY
BEGIN TO COOL TUESDAY WITH THE INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION BUT BY WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S AND 60S
AS LOW CLOUDS AND UPSLOPE FLOW PUSH ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. A SECOND PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL COME WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THAT SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL
BASED ON LATEST FORECAST MODELS...BUT THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN
COLDER AND SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH SO NOT RULING OUT A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. COULD ALSO SEE SOME SNOW INTO EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...SUCH AS ALONG THE PINE RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AIR
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GO BELOW FREEZING OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE. ANY SNOW THAT WOULD FALL WOULD LIKELY MELT ONCE HITTING
THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT MON SEP 8 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE THE STRONG
AUTUMN-LIKE COLD FRONT DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND
FRONT RANGE ON THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND BULK OF THE
COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS IS STILL SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
THE ECMWF AND GEM MODELS...BUT IS STARTING TO TREND COOLER
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY AND BECOME STRONGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH LIKELY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS UPSLOPE FLOW BECOMES STRONGER.
ENHANCEMENT IN PRECIP RATES IS EXPECTED AS A STRONG 110 KNOT JET
SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE DAKOTAS LATE
ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...ANY SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL FURTHER
ENHANCE PRECIP RATES AS FROPA OCCURS. CONTINUED TO INCREASE POP UP
TO 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...MAINLY FROM THE NORTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PINE RIDGE WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE
THE HIGHEST PRECIP RATES DUE TO SLIGHTLY BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING.
INCREASED POP BETWEEN 40 TO 55 PERCENT ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR FOR
NOW...MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHEN/IF THE
RAIN CHANGES MIXES WITH OR CHANGES TO SNOW. THE FIRST SNOWFALL OF
THE SEASON IS APPEARING MORE LIKELY AS TIME GOES ON ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS SINCE MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COLDER. EXPECT
SNOWLEVELS TO LOWER BETWEEN 4000 TO 5500 FEET ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR ON GRASSY SURFACES SINCE SNOWFALL
RATES WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THE WARM GROUND...AND THAT IS NOT
CLEAR AT THIS TIME. WENT WITH A 4O TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WESTERN CARBON
COUNTY AND THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES INCLUDING SIDNEY AND
BRIDGEPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL MUCH MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. SOME LOCATIONS FURTHER
NORTH MAY NOT EVEN HIT 40 DURING THE DAY AS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS
OVER THE AREA AND MOVES SOUTH. MAY SEE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD HARD
FREEZE ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...AND PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS BETWEEN 26
TO 32 DEGREES.

AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS BARELY REACHING 50
DEGREES...A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THIS
WEEKEND. ALL MODELS SHOW A BROAD RIDGE ALOFT SLOWLY BUILDING INTO
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH
POP BELOW 5 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 615 PM MDT MON SEP 8 2014

SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PASS OVER MANY OF THE AREA TERMINALS THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. NO INDICATION OF ANY CONDITIONS
LOWER THAN VFR...HOWEVER CANT RULE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WITHIN
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANYTHING OTHER THAN VCSH IN THE 00Z TAFS. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE LATE TUESDAY ON WHAT LOOKS TO BE THE BEGINNING OF A
SEVERAL DAY IFR/LIFR EVENT THAT MAY LAST INTO THE END OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT MON SEP 8 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND INTO
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING
LATE TONIGHT AND THEN SPREAD EAST INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TURNING COOLER TUESDAY AND THEN COLDER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. IT WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH THAT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY INTO EAST CENTRAL WYOMING
AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAHN
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...SML








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS PHOENIX AZ

 950 PM MST MON SEP 8 2014

.UPDATED...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...HOWEVER MOST OF THE LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. THUS...ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY...THOUGH
SOME COULD STILL SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. A GRADUAL DRYING
TREND WILL BEGIN STARTING DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY REBUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS FAR WESTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING. RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE A FEW
POP UP SHOWERS ARE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MARICOPA AND PIMA
COUNTIES ALTHOUGH NOTHING THAT FAR SOUTH HAS BECOME WELL ORGANIZED.
STILL...COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS ACROSS THE METRO
OVERNIGHT. WILL NUDGE POPS UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS PHOENIX THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.

MEANWHILE...00Z NAM AND RAP INDICATE SHOWERS WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS
WESTERN ARIZONA AROUND 12Z OR SOONER AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ORGANIZED AND WIND SPEEDS INCREASE. GIVEN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FOR AND
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...I AM
GOING TO CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREAS NORTH/WEST OF PHOENIX THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AS MANY COMPETING FEATURES COME
INTO PLAY DRIVING (OR INHIBITING) CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND
COVERAGE. FORCES/ELEMENTS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION INCLUDE A
CONTINUATION OF AN ABNORMALLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT (BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING RATIOS 11-14 G/KG) AND FORCED ASCENT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING TOWARDS NORTHWEST
ARIZONA. DETRIMENTAL FACTORS INCLUDE A VERY DISCERNIBLE DRYSLOT
MOVING NORTH ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE OLD NORBERT CIRCULATION WEST
OF THE BAJA...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE MIDLEVELS HELPING REDUCE
OVERALL INSTABILITY. THE VAST MAJORITY OF HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE
MODELS (WHICH HAVE PERFORMED VERY WELL IN THIS EVENT TO THIS POINT)
REALLY TARGET NORTHWEST ARIZONA EXTENDING SOUTH INTO LA PAZ AND YUMA
COUNTIES AS THE PRIME REAL ESTATE FOR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
THEREFORE...HAVE REALLY TRIMMED POPS OVER THE SERN CWA INCLUDING THE
PHOENIX METRO...WHILE FOCUSING 50 PERCENT CHANCES OVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...A SLOW DRYING AND WARMING TREND
WILL COMMENCE AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STEADILY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. TOTAL MOISTURE WILL RATHER SLOW TO ERODE AS LOW/MID
LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE...HOWEVER NOTABLE DRY AIR
SEEN IN WV IMAGERY OVER THE EAST PACIFIC SHOULD OVERTAKE MUCH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...SOME CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...THOUGH UPPER WINDS WILL MOSTLY
FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST WHICH IS AN UNFAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR BRINGING
ANY HIGHER TERRAIN STORMS INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY RISE...REACHING TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL
VALUES BY ABOUT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
STARTING TO SEE SOME ACTIVITY CREEPING INTO THE WEST VALLEY. GOING
TO MENTION VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST
AREAS WILL BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AWAY FROM THE
TERMINALS. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND
LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MONDAY MORNINGS
CONVECTION...CONFIDENCE IN HOW TONIGHT WILL EVOLVE IS LOW. STORMS
SHOULD RE-FIRE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA...VCSH REINTRODUCED
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
STORMS MORE LIKELY ACROSS AZ THAN SE CA ON TUESDAY BUT I WILL RETAIN
A MENTION OF VCSH AT BLH FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT...AND AGAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR SHOULD WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A GRADUAL DRYING TREND WILL COMMENCE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS MOISTURE GETS SCOURED OUT FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD BE VERY SLIGHT...AND PRIMARILY LIMITED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GILA COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO A
15-30 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. ASIDE
FROM SOME AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS...WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AZZ020>022.

CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING CAZ030>032.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/MO/CB
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...MO






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

 911 PM MST MON SEP 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...HOWEVER MOST OF THE LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. THUS...ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY...THOUGH
SOME COULD STILL SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. A GRADUAL DRYING
TREND WILL BEGIN STARTING DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY REBUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS FAR WESTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING. RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE A FEW
POP UP SHOWERS ARE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MARICOPA AND PIMA
COUNTIES ALTHOUGH NOTHING THAT FAR SOUTH HAS BECOME WELL ORGANIZED.
STILL...COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS ACROSS THE METRO
OVERNIGHT. WILL NUDGE POPS UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS PHOENIX THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.

MEANWHILE...00Z NAM AND RAP INDICATE SHOWERS WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS
WESTERN ARIZONA AROUND 12Z OR SOONER AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ORGANIZED AND WIND SPEEDS INCREASE. GIVEN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FOR AND
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...I AM
GOING TO CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREAS NORTH/WEST OF PHOENIX THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AS MANY COMPETING FEATURES COME
INTO PLAY DRIVING (OR INHIBITING) CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND
COVERAGE. FORCES/ELEMENTS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION INCLUDE A
CONTINUATION OF AN ABNORMALLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT (BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING RATIOS 11-14 G/KG) AND FORCED ASCENT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING TOWARDS NORTHWEST
ARIZONA. DETRIMENTAL FACTORS INCLUDE A VERY DISCERNIBLE DRYSLOT
MOVING NORTH ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE OLD NORBERT CIRCULATION WEST
OF THE BAJA...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE MIDLEVELS HELPING REDUCE
OVERALL INSTABILITY. THE VAST MAJORITY OF HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE
MODELS (WHICH HAVE PERFORMED VERY WELL IN THIS EVENT TO THIS POINT)
REALLY TARGET NORTHWEST ARIZONA EXTENDING SOUTH INTO LA PAZ AND YUMA
COUNTIES AS THE PRIME REAL ESTATE FOR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
THEREFORE...HAVE REALLY TRIMMED POPS OVER THE SERN CWA INCLUDING THE
PHOENIX METRO...WHILE FOCUSING 50 PERCENT CHANCES OVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...A SLOW DRYING AND WARMING TREND
WILL COMMENCE AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STEADILY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. TOTAL MOISTURE WILL RATHER SLOW TO ERODE AS LOW/MID
LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE...HOWEVER NOTABLE DRY AIR
SEEN IN WV IMAGERY OVER THE EAST PACIFIC SHOULD OVERTAKE MUCH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...SOME CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...THOUGH UPPER WINDS WILL MOSTLY
FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST WHICH IS AN UNFAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR BRINGING
ANY HIGHER TERRAIN STORMS INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY RISE...REACHING TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL
VALUES BY ABOUT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
CHANCES OF GETTING ANY ADDITIONAL TS/SHRA INTO TERMINALS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING IS UNLIKELY. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY
PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL SITES...LOWER CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO HUG
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING OPERATIONS.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH GENERALLY AOA 7K
FT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION...THOUGH MAY
VEER TO SW FOR A TIME THIS EVENING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SOME ISOLD THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SERN CALIFORNIA
TERMINALS...THOUGH MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE SITES.
HAVE INCLUDED A PERIOD OF VCSH AS THE MAJORITY OF LIGHTNING HAS
MOVED NORTH. CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY SCT AND
ABOVE 6K FT. SFC WINDS WILL FAVOR A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...BUT MAY
BECOME VARIABLE IN SOME CASES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A GRADUAL DRYING TREND WILL COMMENCE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS MOISTURE GETS SCOURED OUT FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD BE VERY SLIGHT...AND PRIMARILY LIMITED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GILA COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO A
15-30 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. ASIDE
FROM SOME AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS...WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AZZ020>022.

CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING CAZ030>032.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/MO/CB
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

 1124 PM MDT MON SEP 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT MON SEP 8 2014

...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TONIGHT...

CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO GET GOING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...IN
PART BY CLOUD COVER OUT WEST WHICH HAS HINDERED HEATING...AND IN
PART BY FALLING DEW POINTS ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST
PLAINS WHICH HAS LIMITED CAPE.  LOCAL HRRR BREAKS OUT STRONGER
CONVECTION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS WELL AS
ALONG A SFC TROF AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  OVERALL...CAPES
ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH...SO THINK THIS CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE WEAK
SIDE.  HOWEVER...THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
HEAVY ENOUGH RAINFALL TO CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR BURN
SCARS...PARTICULARLY OUT WEST WHERE THEY ARE STEADILY INCREASING.
INTERESTINGLY...HRRR SEEMS TO BE BACKING OFF ON QPF ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON BUT NAM12 AND OTHER VARIOUS HIGH
RES MODELS STILL SUGGEST THE THREAT IS THERE.

GREATER THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS STILL
APPEARS TO COME IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AZ LIFTS SLOWING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO NRN NM
OVERNIGHT.  ALSO WATCHING A VERY DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE ACROSS
WESTERN UT WHICH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SAME TIME
THAT MONSOON MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO NEAR AN INCH AT PAGOSA SPRINGS AS H7
WINDS IN THE NAM INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THIS COMPONENT
PROVIDES THE MOST FAVORABLE UPSLOPE COMPONENT INTO THE EASTERN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS.  ALL THIS SHOULD MEAN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT (AFTER 06Z) AS LIFT AND MOISTURE
INCREASE WITH THE INCOMING WAVES.  ALTHOUGH THE MODELS PORTRAY
VARIOUS SCENARIOS AS TO WHERE THE QPF MAXIMUM WILL OCCUR...THERE ARE
SUFFICIENT SIGNALS IN THE MODEL DATA TO SUGGEST A HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WERE UPSLOPE MAY REGENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD TRAIN OVER THE SAME SPOTS AS THEY MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST.  STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE FAST...BUT REPETITIVE
RAINFALL ON THE SAME LOCATION MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOOD PROBLEMS WITH
THE WEST FORK BURN SCAR BEING MOST UNDER THE GUN.  REALLY CAN`T RULE
OUT HEAVY RAIN ANYWHERE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT THREAT SEEMS HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS DUE
TO THE UPSLOPE AND PROXIMITY TO THE BURN SCAR SO WILL LIMIT FLASH
FLOOD WATCH TO THAT AREA FOR NOW.

ONE WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE PIKES PEAK
REGION TOWARDS DAWN.  THIS INITIAL BATCH STILL LOOKS RATHER LIGHT AS
IT MOVES EAST OF THE CONTDVD...AND QUICKLY SKIRTS OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE MORNING.  THEN THE MAIN PACIFIC TROF MOVES IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ENHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.
STILL NOT STRONG ENOUGH SIGNALS TO SUGGEST FLASH FLOODING FOR THE
SOUTHEAST MTS/PLAINS.  LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE WESTERLY WHICH IS
DOWNSLOPE...AND AS A RESULT...DEW POINTS...WHICH DO INCREASE
SOME...ARE STILL ONLY IN THE 40S.  THIS RESULTS IN CAPES OF ONLY A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL ALSO
BECOME FOCUSED ALONG A FRONT WHICH DROPS SOUTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z.  CONVECTIVE BULLS-EYES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS MEANDER FROM RUN TO RUN...BUT PARAMETERS ARE NOT FAVORABLE TO
PIN PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS LONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE
PROBLEMS.  STORM MOTIONS WILL BE TO THE EAST AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP.
WILL KEEP MAINLY ISOLATED POPS FOR THE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH POPS INCREASING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER OUT EAST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. MEANWHILE...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BATTLE
CLOUD COVER AT TIMES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...BUT OVERALL KEPT
MAX TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT MON SEP 8 2014

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LINGER INTO THE EVENING AS THE TROUGH PASSES THOUGH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. ANY CAPE SHOULD END BY LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE
COOLER MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR WILL BE TOO SHALLOW TO PASS OVER
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. KEPT SCATTER POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TROUGH WILL NOT PASS
THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...DRIER
AIR MASS ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION. ON THE PLAINS...ANOTHER
SURGE OF COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE TROUGH.
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO STABLE OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY.
BUKFIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING FOR SOME
LATER AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. BY THE EVENING...THE COOL AIR ON THE
PLAINS MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
AND KEPT ISOLATED POPS IN THE GRIDS.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE ON HAVING A
SHARPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
EC IS SLOWER...DEEPER AND COLDER WITH THE TROUGH. EC HAS 700MB
APPROACHING -4C OVER EL PASO COUNTY FRIDAY MORNING WHILE GFS IS
CLOSER TO +2C. ANTICIPATE A REASONABLE CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
THURSDAY EVENING AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. EC SOLUTION SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
NIGHT. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FROM THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
EASTWARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE MOISTURE UPSLOPE FLOW. FRIDAY
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A CHILLY AND CLOUDY DAY ON THE PLAINS AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. EXTENDED PROCEDURE GAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S OVER
THE PLAINS FRIDAY...WITH LOW CLOUDS LINGERING UNTIL AT LEAST MID
AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN BE COOLER. LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR MASS WILL MOSTLY STAY EAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WITH WARMING AND DRYING ALOFT...IT COULD BE A
SUNNY AND MILD DAY OVER THE REMAINING MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.

.SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF SOME FROST SATURDAY MORNING...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF
CLEARING. AFTERWARDS...A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP FOR THE
WEEKEND ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. SOME MONSOON MOISTURE COULD
MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE WEEKEND...AND INCREASED POPS
SLIGHTLY. OVER THE PLAINS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND THE INCREASED MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN A
FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM MDT MON SEP 8 2014

SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS
OF 05Z...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
MOST MOUNTAINS OBSCURED BY 12Z. FOR TAF SITES...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. AT
KALS...WILL CARRY A VCSH MENTION INTO THE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
WEAK CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE SAN JUANS...THEN A VCTS MENTION FOR
LATE AFTERNOON AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. AT
KCOS...EXPECT MOST -SHRA TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINAL OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH SOME LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE CLOSE BY
ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA AFTER
20Z...WITH WINDOW FOR TSRA FROM ABOUT 20Z-02Z. SIMILAR FORECAST
FOR KPUB...WITH FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF TSRA INTO EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ067-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...PETERSEN



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 543 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN ORGANIZING IN THE PLAINS TODAY
AND WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CLIMB TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE 60S AND
IT WILL FEEL MORE HUMID OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 538 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

PRECIPITATION ACROSS IL CONTINUES TO EXPAND EAST ALONG THETA E SURGE...ALBEIT
PCPN APPEARS TO BE LIGHT ON EASTERN FLANK. GETTING TOO CLOSE FOR
COMFORT AND 07Z HRRR NOW BRINGS SOME LIGHT QPF INTO FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST OTHER HIRES GUIDANCE STILL
DEPICTS NO PCPN INTO OUR AREA BUT RADAR/SAT TRENDS SUGGEST A LOW
POP IS PRUDENT THIS MORNING ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS QUIET BUT EXPECT INCREASING
MOISTURE DURING THE PERIOD AHEAD OF POTENT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FOR WEDNESDAY.

INITIAL THETA E SURGE RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EARLY
THIS MORNING UPSTREAM ACROSS EASTERN IA AND NORTHWEST IL. RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWS THIS PCPN STRUGGLING TO MOVE EAST INTO DRIER AIR AND
MOST HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS PCPN WEST OF OUR AREA TODAY. WILL
THEREFORE KEEP A DRY FORECAST INTACT TODAY BUT WILL SEE INITIAL
SURGE OF HIGHER THETA E AIR WORK EAST DURING THE DAY. MID AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY BE THIN AT TIMES DURING THE DAY. FILTERED SUNSHINE
EXPECTED. CLOUDS TO OFFSET WARMER 925-850MB TEMPS SO HIGHS TODAY
EXPECTED NEAR OR JUST ABOVE MONDAY TEMPS.

STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS TONIGHT IN THE PLAINS WITH POTENT SHORT
WAVE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS. SECONDARY THETA E SURGE
WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT BUT MAIN FORCING EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST
OF OUR AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS DEPICTED ON
MODELS WITH SOME SATURATION BUT EXPECT THIS TO GO MORE INTO CLOUD
FORMATION AND MOISTENING OF ATMOSPHERE. THETA E GRADIENT DOES ENTER
NORTHWEST AREAS LATE SO WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE THERE LATE TONIGHT.
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...GRADIENT AND MOISTURE EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO
REMAIN IN THE 60S. HAVE USED A WARMER BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.


&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

ALL EYES ON WEDNESDAY`S SYSTEM WITH CHILLY TEMPS BEING THE ONLY
SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA STILL EXPECTED TO EJECT
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT CROSSES
THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT A TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE REGION AND COUPLED
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAKS WILL FAVOR STRONG CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. SYNOPTIC SCALE DETAILS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN LATEST MODEL
SUITE. BEST PV ADVECTION AND DEFORMATION FORCING WILL PASS TO OUR
NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW TRACK BUT GOOD MIDLEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL STILL LEAD TO GOOD
FGEN ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT. AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE AMPLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. DEEP
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL BE DRAWN
NORTH WITH THIS WAVE...ALONG WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
WESTERN GULF/SOUTHERN PLAINS. PW VALUES STILL EXPECTED TO BE OVER 2
INCHES...RECORD TERRITORY FOR THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. THIS COUPLED
WITH GOOD FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. TWO POSSIBLE IMPACTS TO
DISCUSS...SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE ENTIRELY DEPENDENT ON DEGREE OF
DIABATIC BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING EARLY IN THE DAY. 00Z NAM STILL A
RELATIVE OUTLIER IN SUGGESTING SBCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 2000
J/KG...PERPLEXING GIVEN THE DEGREE OF MORNING CLOUD COVER SEEN IN RH
FIELDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS. STILL PREFER THE MORE SUBDUED GFS
INSTABILITY VALUES GIVEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT RH/CLOUD FORECASTS SEEN
IN ALL OF THE MODELS. THAT BEING SAID...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK WILL BE POSSIBLE IF WE MANAGE TO GET ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING
BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES. KINEMATICS ARE EXCELLENT WITH 850MB WINDS
AT OR ABOVE 50 KTS AND GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS WELL. PRECIP LOADING
IN VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE BRINGING STRONG
WIND CORE DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH EVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE A THREAT GIVEN LOW LCL`S AND STRONG
SHEAR. WHILE CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR MORNING CLOUDS TO CURTAIL
THE SEVERE RISK SOMEWHAT...CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS NOT HIGH
AND EVERYONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS CLOSELY
AS IT DOES NOT TAKE A LOT OF INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER IN THESE HIGH SHEAR SITUATIONS. SUBTLE BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK AND
A NONEVENT AND THAT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS POINT...GIVEN FURTHER DISPLACEMENT FROM
MORNING PRECIP AND CLOUD DEBRIS.

THE OTHER IMPACT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING. AGAIN...THIS WILL DEPEND SOMEWHAT ON DEGREE OF DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION BUT EXPECT SOME HEALTHY RAINFALL AMOUNTS REGARDLESS
OF CONVECTIVE COMPONENT. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL BE UNUSUALLY HIGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM
CLOUD LAYER OF AROUND 13 KFT...FAVORING EFFICIENT
COLLISION/COALESCENCE PROCESSES. MEAN FLOW VECTORS ARE ORIENTED A
BIT TOO ORTHOGONAL TO THE FRONT FOR A VERY LONG DURATION OF HEAVY
RAIN BUT SOME TRAINING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND PRECIP EFFICIENCY.
EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL SEE AROUND AN INCH WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER TOMORROW. A SECONDARY VORT MAX
WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY GENERATE
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. MAIN STORY WILL BE MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS. 850MB
TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR 0C BY THIS WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECTING A
HEALTHY CU/STRATOCU DECK ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO KEEP A LID ON
AFTERNOON TEMPS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S THROUGH SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

STILL EXPECT VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST
BUT STILL HAS CONTROL OVER OUR AREA. MOISTURE ADVECTION UPSTREAM
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THIS PERIOD. SHOULD SEE INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. A STRAY SPRINKLE OR VERY LIGHT
SHOWER NOT OUT OF QUESTION AT KSBN TUE MORNING BUT EXPECTING
DRIER AIR IN PLACE TO ERODE UPSTREAM PCPN AS IT MOVES EAST SO
CHANCES VERY MINIMAL AND NO IMPACT TO OPERATIONS WOULD BE
EXPECTED. MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD FRONT.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LASHLEY
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...LASHLEY


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 544 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WSW SPLIT FLOW
RUNNING ALONG THE CNDN BORDER. A SHRTWV WITHIN THE SRN BRANCH OVER
THE CONUS IS OVER NRN LK MI EARLY THIS MRNG AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR
SOME SPRINKLES THAT IMPACTED MAINLY THE SRN CWA SINCE YDAY AFTN. THE
ARRIVAL OF SOME SHRTWV RDGING/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING
BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE HAS ENDED THESE SPRINKLES...BUT AN AREA OF
SCT-BKN SC...RELATED TO H85 THETA E ADVCTN IN THE SW FLOW BTWN HI
PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A COLD FNT SLIDING SEWD THRU NW ONTARIO/NW
MN...IS MOVING INTO THE WRN CWA. THE COLD FNT TO THE NW IS ATTENDANT
TO A SHRTWV NEAR JAMES BAY THAT IS LIFTING ENEWD WITHIN THE STRONGER
NRN BRANCH FLOW DOMINATING CANADA. SOME SHOWERS/TS ALONG THIS BNDRY
EXTENDED AS FAR AS ABOUT THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER...WHERE THE 00Z INL
RAOB SHOWS AN INVRN ARND H75 THAT IS SUFFICIENT TO CAP ANY
CONVECTION. THIS INVRN IS EVEN SHARPER ON THE MPX RAOB...
STRENGTHENED BY THE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN THE WAKE OF SRN BRANCH
SHRTWV. LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM...THERE IS ANOTHER STRONGER SRN
BRANCH SHRTWV MOVING THRU NEVADA.

MAIN FCST CONCERN FOR TDAY IS WHETHER ANY SHOWERS/TS WL DVLP OVER
MAINLY WRN UPR MI AHEAD OF THE APRCHG COLD FNT FM THE NW. FOCUS FOR
TNGT WL SHIFT TO HOW QUICKLY LARGER AREA OF RA WL ARRIVE FM THE SW
IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING THRU THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

TODAY...WHILE NRN BRANCH SHRTWV NEAR JAMES BAY WL CONTINUE ENEWD
INTO NRN QUEBEC...ATTENDANT COLD FNT IS FCST TO DROP SEWD INTO WRN
UPR MI THIS AFTN BUT THEN SLOW DOWN AS THE H5 FLOW BACKS SW/MORE
PARALLEL WITH THE FNT IN ADVANCE OF ROCKIES SHRTWV MOVING OUT INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE THE SLOWING FNT MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME
SHOWERS/TS IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING...MODELS SHOW BULK OF
THE DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC REMAINING TO THE N OF THE CWA CLOSER TO
LOW HGTS IN ONTARIO. IN THE ABSENCE OF THIS STRONGER LARGER SCALE
FORCING...SUSPECT MID LVL INVRN SHOWN ON THE UPSTREAM 00Z INL/MPX
RAOBS WL PERSIST IN LINE WITH THE GFS FCST SDNGS SHOWING LINGERING
INVRN ARND H75-8 AND LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. SO WL
RETAIN GOING ONLY SCHC POPS OVER MAINLY THE W HALF FOR THE AFTN.
COMBINATION OF INCRSG H85 THETA E OVER THE FAR W TOWARD 00Z AND
ARRIVAL OF STRONGER FORCING IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV FM THE
PLAINS JUSTIFY INCRSG POPS OVER THE FAR W CLOSER TO THAT TIME AS GFS
FCST SDNG FOR IWD SHOWS WEAKENING INVRN TOWARD 00Z. AS FOR TEMPS...A
GOOD DEAL OF SC THAT WL FORM IN THE INCRSGLY MOIST S FLOW AHEAD OF
THE APRCHG FNT AND UNDER INVRN AS WELL AS FLOW OFF LK MI AS SFC
WINDS TEND TO BACK TOWARD THE SSE THRU THE DAY WL LIMIT THE RISE OF
THE MERCURY DESPITE WARM START TO THE DAY. TEMPS OVER THE W ARE
LIKELY TO FALL FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FNT THIS AFTN AND
ARRIVAL OF SHALLOW COOL AIR.

TNGT...SHRTWV IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WL MOVE NE...WITH FAIRLY DEEP
SFC LO ARND 996MB REACHING FAR NE IOWA TOWARD 12Z WED. ARRIVAL OF
SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND UPR DVGC IN ADVANCE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE AND OVER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E/PWAT AT LEAST NEAR
1.5 INCH WL BRING INCRSG POPS TO CATEGORICAL SW-NE...EXCEPT OVER THE
FAR E WHERE THE MORE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER
12Z WED. ALTHOUGH THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP FAVORS SOME HEAVY RA
ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF OVERNGT...THERE ARE A FEW LINGERING
QUESTION MARKS. THE FAVORED 00Z GFS MODEL INDICATES A BAND OF
SHARPER H85-7 FGEN WL SETUP ACRS CENTRAL WI OVERNGT...DISRUPTING
MSTR INFLOW INTO UPR MI. THE 00Z GFS GENERATES NO MORE THAN ABOUT
0.25-0.33 INCH OF RA THRU 12Z. SEVERAL OF THE HIER RES MODELS...
INCLUDING THE 00Z LOCAL WRF-ARW...GENERATE ONLY MINIMAL QPF OVER UPR
MI THRU 12Z WED. THE 00Z CNDN MODEL FOCUSES ITS HEAVIER PCPN TO THE
S OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THAT AXIS OF FGEN SHOWN BY THE GFS. BUT
SINCE THE 00Z NAM...WHICH SHOWS A FARTHER NW TRACK FOR THE SFC LO
AND STRONGER SLY FLOW TO BRING HIER PWAT INTO THE CWA...AND THE 00Z
ECMWF DO PRODUCE GENEROUS RA OVER MAINLY THE W HALF...MADE NO CHG TO
GOING FLOOD WATCH FOR THE 06Z-12Z TIME. OTRW...THE SLOW MOVING COLD
FNT IS FCST TO SLIP ONLY SLOWLY SE THRU THE NGT...SO THE WARMEST
OVERNGT LO TEMPS WL BE OVER THE SE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 544 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

WINDY AND WET THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...WITH COOL AIR LINGERING
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE COLD AIR...FROST OR
FREEZE CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. SEE THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE ONGOING FLOOD WATCH.

BY 12Z WEDNESDAY STEADY RAIN SHOULD ALREADY BE FALLING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...AS A TROUGH IS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AND DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS NE IA AND FAR SE MN NEARS.

WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE
SFC LOW SHIFTS ACROSS SE UPPER MI AND N LOWER MI. GIVEN THE TRACK OF
THE LOW...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TS WAS KEPT ALONG LAKE MI ON WEDNESDAY.
A FAVORABLE FETCH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ENHANCE N FLOW AND BRING
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE W HALF. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF STRONG WINDS IN THE HWO...WITH
SATURATED SOILS AND STRONG WINDS HITTING LEAFED OUT TREES HAVING A
BETTER CHANCE OF UPROOTING THEM.

THE STRONG WINDS WILL SLOWLY EXPAND OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES ACROSS N LAKE HURON AND EXITS INTO
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. WHILE THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY...OUR FORECAST FOR THIS PRODUCT WILL END
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S AND PLENTY OF RAIN...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED PEOPLE OUT IN THE WATER. LESS OF A SOCIAL
BROADCAST OF THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE LIKELY...AS HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

COOL 850MB TEMPS OF 2 TO -1C AND FAVORABLE ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS GOING INTO THURSDAY. THE INFLUX OF
COLD AIR WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...AS 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM AROUND 11C AT
DAYBREAK WEDNSDAY. VERY COLD AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW
COULD RESULT IN FROST OR FREEZE CONDITIONS NEAR THE WI BORDER LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CANADIAN HIGH SINKS ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL
PLAINS AND BUILDS A RIDGE ACROSS UPPER MI. LINGERING CLOUDS ON NW
FLOW SHOULD KEEP AREAS E OF A LINE FROM MARQUETTE TO ESCANABA FROM
FALLING TOO LOW. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH PW
VALUES WELL BELOW NORMAL WILL HELP TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MI INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU SUNRISE AND LIKELY THRU MOST OF THE
AFTN AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY. SHARP
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY THRU NW MN
WILL DRIFT S...REACHING W AND NW UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING.
CIGS SHOULD QUICKLY FALL TO LOW MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR AT KCMX/KIWD
AFTER FROPA PER UPSTREAM OBS BEHIND FRONT. THERE MAY BE SOME SHRA OR
EVEN TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE ON
COVERAGE/LOCATION OF PCPN IS LOW. FOR NOW...ONLY VCSH WAS INCLUDED IN
FCST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

THE TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS W LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DRIFT ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE NEARS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
LOW WILL BE OVER E IOWA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE TO PUSH
NE OVER E UPPER MI AND N LOWER MI LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
EXITING INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. N GALES TO AROUND 40KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR...BEFORE SLOWLY
EXPANDING TO CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER S ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN
THURSDAY WILL SINK ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE BUILDING
A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20KTS OR LESS.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

RAINFALL TOTALS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS UPPER MI
RANGE FROM JUST OVER 1.5IN TO NEARLY 3IN ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE ENHANCED LOCATIONS OF N CENTRAL
UPPER MI. AN AREAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS POSTED FOR MUCH OF W AND
CENTRAL UPPER MI. MUCH OF THE CWA IS IN THE DAY 2 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL OUTLOOK /SLIGHT RISK/ FOR DAY 2 /12Z WED-12Z THU/. THE
MORNING RIVER FCSTS WILL BE RAN WITH 48HR QPF VALUES...SO IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT REACTION IS EXPECTED. OUR LAST RAIN EVENT
DID NOT DO MUCH AT THE RIVER GAUGE LOCATIONS. RIVERS THAT ARE
RUNNING HIGHER /GENERALLY 1-2FT/ THAN THIS TIME LAST MONTH INCLUDE
THE SOUTH BRANCH OF THE ONTONAGON RIVER AT EWEN...THE FORD RIVER AT
HYDE...THE STURGEON RIVER AT NAHMA JUNCTION...AND THE MANISTIQUE
RIVER AT MANISTIQUE.

AT THIS POINT THE N CENTRAL RFC 3HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS HOVERING
BETWEEN 2-3.5IN...WITH 6HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS CLOSER TO 2.25 TO
OVER 4IN. OF COURSE IT/S VERY TERRAIN AND BASIN SPECIFIC. AS
PREVIOUSLY NOTED...MANY AREAS OF W AND CENTRAL UPPER MI ARE RUNNING
AROUND 2-4IN ABOVE THE 2 WEEK NORMAL PRECIP WISE DUE TO RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL. EXPECT THE TRADITIONAL URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT POSSIBILITY IN THE TYPICAL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS OF ESC IF
RAINFALL IS STEADY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
     MIZ001>006-009>013-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ251-267.

  GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ243>245-264>266.

  GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR LSZ162-240>242-263.

  GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ248>250.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF
HYDROLOGY...KF






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 438 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WSW SPLIT FLOW
RUNNING ALONG THE CNDN BORDER. A SHRTWV WITHIN THE SRN BRANCH OVER
THE CONUS IS OVER NRN LK MI EARLY THIS MRNG AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR
SOME SPRINKLES THAT IMPACTED MAINLY THE SRN CWA SINCE YDAY AFTN. THE
ARRIVAL OF SOME SHRTWV RDGING/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING
BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE HAS ENDED THESE SPRINKLES...BUT AN AREA OF
SCT-BKN SC...RELATED TO H85 THETA E ADVCTN IN THE SW FLOW BTWN HI
PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A COLD FNT SLIDING SEWD THRU NW ONTARIO/NW
MN...IS MOVING INTO THE WRN CWA. THE COLD FNT TO THE NW IS ATTENDANT
TO A SHRTWV NEAR JAMES BAY THAT IS LIFTING ENEWD WITHIN THE STRONGER
NRN BRANCH FLOW DOMINATING CANADA. SOME SHOWERS/TS ALONG THIS BNDRY
EXTENDED AS FAR AS ABOUT THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER...WHERE THE 00Z INL
RAOB SHOWS AN INVRN ARND H75 THAT IS SUFFICIENT TO CAP ANY
CONVECTION. THIS INVRN IS EVEN SHARPER ON THE MPX RAOB...
STRENGTHENED BY THE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN THE WAKE OF SRN BRANCH
SHRTWV. LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM...THERE IS ANOTHER STRONGER SRN
BRANCH SHRTWV MOVING THRU NEVADA.

MAIN FCST CONCERN FOR TDAY IS WHETHER ANY SHOWERS/TS WL DVLP OVER
MAINLY WRN UPR MI AHEAD OF THE APRCHG COLD FNT FM THE NW. FOCUS FOR
TNGT WL SHIFT TO HOW QUICKLY LARGER AREA OF RA WL ARRIVE FM THE SW
IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING THRU THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

TODAY...WHILE NRN BRANCH SHRTWV NEAR JAMES BAY WL CONTINUE ENEWD
INTO NRN QUEBEC...ATTENDANT COLD FNT IS FCST TO DROP SEWD INTO WRN
UPR MI THIS AFTN BUT THEN SLOW DOWN AS THE H5 FLOW BACKS SW/MORE
PARALLEL WITH THE FNT IN ADVANCE OF ROCKIES SHRTWV MOVING OUT INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE THE SLOWING FNT MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME
SHOWERS/TS IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING...MODELS SHOW BULK OF
THE DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC REMAINING TO THE N OF THE CWA CLOSER TO
LOW HGTS IN ONTARIO. IN THE ABSENCE OF THIS STRONGER LARGER SCALE
FORCING...SUSPECT MID LVL INVRN SHOWN ON THE UPSTREAM 00Z INL/MPX
RAOBS WL PERSIST IN LINE WITH THE GFS FCST SDNGS SHOWING LINGERING
INVRN ARND H75-8 AND LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. SO WL
RETAIN GOING ONLY SCHC POPS OVER MAINLY THE W HALF FOR THE AFTN.
COMBINATION OF INCRSG H85 THETA E OVER THE FAR W TOWARD 00Z AND
ARRIVAL OF STRONGER FORCING IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV FM THE
PLAINS JUSTIFY INCRSG POPS OVER THE FAR W CLOSER TO THAT TIME AS GFS
FCST SDNG FOR IWD SHOWS WEAKENING INVRN TOWARD 00Z. AS FOR TEMPS...A
GOOD DEAL OF SC THAT WL FORM IN THE INCRSGLY MOIST S FLOW AHEAD OF
THE APRCHG FNT AND UNDER INVRN AS WELL AS FLOW OFF LK MI AS SFC
WINDS TEND TO BACK TOWARD THE SSE THRU THE DAY WL LIMIT THE RISE OF
THE MERCURY DESPITE WARM START TO THE DAY. TEMPS OVER THE W ARE
LIKELY TO FALL FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FNT THIS AFTN AND
ARRIVAL OF SHALLOW COOL AIR.

TNGT...SHRTWV IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WL MOVE NE...WITH FAIRLY DEEP
SFC LO ARND 996MB REACHING FAR NE IOWA TOWARD 12Z WED. ARRIVAL OF
SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND UPR DVGC IN ADVANCE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE AND OVER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E/PWAT AT LEAST NEAR
1.5 INCH WL BRING INCRSG POPS TO CATEGORICAL SW-NE...EXCEPT OVER THE
FAR E WHERE THE MORE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER
12Z WED. ALTHOUGH THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP FAVORS SOME HEAVY RA
ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF OVERNGT...THERE ARE A FEW LINGERING
QUESTION MARKS. THE FAVORED 00Z GFS MODEL INDICATES A BAND OF
SHARPER H85-7 FGEN WL SETUP ACRS CENTRAL WI OVERNGT...DISRUPTING
MSTR INFLOW INTO UPR MI. THE 00Z GFS GENERATES NO MORE THAN ABOUT
0.25-0.33 INCH OF RA THRU 12Z. SEVERAL OF THE HIER RES MODELS...
INCLUDING THE 00Z LOCAL WRF-ARW...GENERATE ONLY MINIMAL QPF OVER UPR
MI THRU 12Z WED. THE 00Z CNDN MODEL FOCUSES ITS HEAVIER PCPN TO THE
S OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THAT AXIS OF FGEN SHOWN BY THE GFS. BUT
SINCE THE 00Z NAM...WHICH SHOWS A FARTHER NW TRACK FOR THE SFC LO
AND STRONGER SLY FLOW TO BRING HIER PWAT INTO THE CWA...AND THE 00Z
ECMWF DO PRODUCE GENEROUS RA OVER MAINLY THE W HALF...MADE NO CHG TO
GOING FLOOD WATCH FOR THE 06Z-12Z TIME. OTRW...THE SLOW MOVING COLD
FNT IS FCST TO SLIP ONLY SLOWLY SE THRU THE NGT...SO THE WARMEST
OVERNGT LO TEMPS WL BE OVER THE SE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2014

THE MAIN ISSUES THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE FLOODING POTENTIAL
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...GALES ON LAKE SUPERIOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MOVING IN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TO WESTERN IOWA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT OR AROUND 1000MB.
AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS SLIDES ACROSS
THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER...TAKING
THE LOW FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN THE OTHER MODELS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON
INCREASED MOISTURE UPGLIDE AS SHOWN ON THE 300K ISOSURFACE ALONG
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE SHOWN BY PLOTTING 1000-500 RH. THE BEST
CHANCE OF CONVECTION WOULD BE TUESDAY EVENING WITH INSTABILITY
LINGERING ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE LOW. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE
NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WHILE FURTHER STRENGTHENING
TO AROUND 990MB AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THIS POINT...THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
WOULD BE GREATEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WOULD BE IN PLACE AT THE SAME TIME ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE IS MAXIMIZED AND DEEP LAYER FORCING IS MAXIMIZED AS A FAIRLY
STRONG 700MB FGEN BAND WRAPS THROUGH THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...THE
AREA WILL LIE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET MAX TO THE SOUTH AND
PARTIALLY IN THE INFLUENCE OF A RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET MAX
TO THE NORTH. ALSO IN SUPPORT OF HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE PWAT VALUES CONTINUING TO BE
PROGGED AT 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ON STRONG SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE REGION. RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER...OVERALL INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED HEAVY RAINFALL FEATURES SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA AND
MAINLY WRAP AROUND PRECIP LINGERS OVER GENERALLY THE WESTERN U.P. AS
A DRY SLOT IS PROGGED TO WEDGE INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS...ALLOWING FOR MAINLY DRIZZLE.

HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL INCLUDING AREAL FLOOD WATCH...WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
LIKELY EXCEED 2 INCHES WITH UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA. MOST OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD...BETWEEN 06Z/10 AND 18Z/10.
THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ON VERY SATURATED SOILS WHICH WILL
ALLOW RUNOFF TO BEGIN QUICKLY. MANY AREAS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE U.P. ARE RUNNING AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE THE 2
WEEK NORMAL DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. SEVERAL RIVERS WITHIN THE
FLOOD WATCH ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL WITH ANY ADDITIONAL
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TO INCREASE THESE LEVEL...SOME OF WHICH
MAY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE...BASED ON HEAVIER RAINFALL GUIDANCE.

OUTSIDE OF THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL...STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN
ISSUE. AS THE LOW PUSHES INTO THE REGION...A FAIRLY STRONG AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN CANADA. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE LAND AREAS AWAY FROM
THE SHORE WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH. OVER THE LAKE...THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND AREAS NEAR THE SHORE WILL SEE WINDS
SUSTAINED CLOSER TO 35 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING AROUND 45 TO
EVEN 50 MPH. THIS IS SUPPORTED WITH CAA ACROSS THE LAKE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW WITH RELATIVELY WARM LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ALLOWING STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE. SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT WINDS MIXING DOWN FROM AROUND 925-900MB...WHERE WINDS ARE
PROGGED TO BE RIGHT AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH. CONFIDENCE IN HIGH WINDS IS
FAIRLY HIGH OVER THE LAKE...WITH A BIT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND
DIRECTION. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A GALE WATCH BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR JAMES
BAY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST...PUSHING INTO QUEBEC BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR KEEPING GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE FORECAST...HOWEVER...AS THE
LOW SLIPS AWAY AND THE HIGH BUILDS IN...WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES
PUSHING THROUGH. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVERHEAD ALONG
WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT AND DRIER AIR...ALLOWING THE PRECIP TO END
AND SKIES TO CLEAR. TEMPERATURES COULD BE QUITE COOL FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH CALM CONDITIONS...CLEARING SKIES AND PWAT VALUES AROUND 30 TO
40 PERCENT OF NORMAL. KEPT THE IDEA OF SEEING BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF THE U.P.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND SKIES MAINLY CLEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ON RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH. THE GFS/EC HAVE ANOTHER
SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE AREA DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
TIME PERIOD...HOWEVER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND THE OVERALL STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. LEANED HEAVILY ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU SUNRISE AND LIKELY THRU MOST OF THE
AFTN AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY. SHARP
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY THRU NW MN
WILL DRIFT S...REACHING W AND NW UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING.
CIGS SHOULD QUICKLY FALL TO LOW MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR AT KCMX/KIWD
AFTER FROPA PER UPSTREAM OBS BEHIND FRONT. THERE MAY BE SOME SHRA OR
EVEN TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE ON
COVERAGE/LOCATION OF PCPN IS LOW. FOR NOW...ONLY VCSH WAS INCLUDED IN
FCST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

THE TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS W LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DRIFT ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE NEARS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
LOW WILL BE OVER E IOWA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE TO PUSH
NE OVER E UPPER MI AND N LOWER MI LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
EXITING INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. N GALES TO AROUND 40KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR...BEFORE SLOWLY
EXPANDING TO CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER S ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN
THURSDAY WILL SINK ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE BUILDING
A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20KTS OR LESS.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

RAINFALL TOTALS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS UPPER MI
RANGE FROM JUST OVER 1.5IN TO NEARLY 3IN ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE ENHANCED LOCATIONS OF N CENTRAL
UPPER MI. AN AREAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS POSTED FOR MUCH OF W AND
CENTRAL UPPER MI. MUCH OF THE CWA IS IN THE DAY 2 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL OUTLOOK /SLIGHT RISK/ FOR DAY 2 /12Z WED-12Z THU/. THE
MORNING RIVER FCSTS WILL BE RAN WITH 48HR QFP VALUES...SO IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT REACTION IS EXPECTED. OUR LAST RAIN EVENT
DID NOT DO MUCH AT THE RIVER GAUGE LOCATIONS. RIVERS THAT ARE
RUNNING HIGHER /GENERALLY 1-2FT/ THAN THIS TIME LAST MONTH INCLUDE
THE SOUTH BRANCH OF THE ONTONAGON RIVER AT EWEN...THE FORD RIVER AT
HYDE...THE STURGEON RIVER AT NAHMA JUNCTION...AND THE MANISTIQUE
RIVER AT MANISTIQUE.

AT THIS POINT THE N CENTRAL RFC 3HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS HOVERING
BETWEEN 2-3.5IN...WITH 6HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS CLOSER TO 2.25 TO
OVER 4IN. OF COURSE IT/S VERY TERRAIN AND BASIN SPECIFIC. AS
PREVIOUSLY NOTED...MANY AREAS OF W AND CENTRAL UPPER MI ARE RUNNING
AROUND 2-4IN ABOVE THE 2 WEEK NORMAL PRECIP WISE DUE TO RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL. EXPECT THE TRADITIONAL URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT POSSIBLITY IN THE TYPICAL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS OF ESC IF
RAINFALL IS STEADY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
     MIZ001>006-009>013-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ251-267.

  GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ243>245-264>266.

  GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR LSZ162-240>242-263.

  GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ248>250.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF
HYDROLOGY...KF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MAINLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS
THE NRN CONUS AND SRN CANADA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WI AND
ASSOCIATED 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV SUPPORTED SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPINKLES OVER NRN WI INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI. WITH THE
FORCING MAINLY IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER AND RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
JUST MID LEVEL CLOUDS/CIGS WERE REPORTED WITH MOST STATIONS NOT EVEN
REPORTING ANY MEASURABLE AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE...PARLTY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH PREVAILED OVER THE REST OF
THE CWA.

TONIGHT...EXPECT THE -SHRA/SPRINKLES OVER SW UPPER MI TO SLOWLY
SLIDE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS. THE LEFTOVER
MID CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO THIN OUT OVERNIGHT AS QVECTOR DIV SPREADS
INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH INCREASING SW FLOW 925-700 MB THETA-E
ADVECTION ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MAY SPREAD INTO THE WEST HALF LATE. THE
SRLY FLOW WILL KEEP MIN READINGS IN THE MID 50S INLAND TO AROUND 60
IN DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

TUESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
DROP THROUGH WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND AIDED BY THE LAKE BREEZE INTO THE
NW CWA BY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1K-2K RANGE...RELATIVELY WEAK
CAPPING AND THE POTENTIAL A WEAK SHORTWAVE BRUSHING THE AREA MAY
PRODUCE SOME ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE
WEST HALF. SINCE THE STRONGEST FORCING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NW OF
THE CWA...ONLY LOWER END CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2014

THE MAIN ISSUES THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE FLOODING POTENTIAL
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...GALES ON LAKE SUPERIOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MOVING IN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TO WESTERN IOWA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT OR AROUND 1000MB.
AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS SLIDES ACROSS
THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER...TAKING
THE LOW FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN THE OTHER MODELS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON
INCREASED MOISTURE UPGLIDE AS SHOWN ON THE 300K ISOSURFACE ALONG
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE SHOWN BY PLOTTING 1000-500 RH. THE BEST
CHANCE OF CONVECTION WOULD BE TUESDAY EVENING WITH INSTABILITY
LINGERING ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE LOW. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE
NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WHILE FURTHER STRENGTHENING
TO AROUND 990MB AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THIS POINT...THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
WOULD BE GREATEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WOULD BE IN PLACE AT THE SAME TIME ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE IS MAXIMIZED AND DEEP LAYER FORCING IS MAXIMIZED AS A FAIRLY
STRONG 700MB FGEN BAND WRAPS THROUGH THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...THE
AREA WILL LIE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET MAX TO THE SOUTH AND
PARTIALLY IN THE INFLUENCE OF A RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET MAX
TO THE NORTH. ALSO IN SUPPORT OF HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE PWAT VALUES CONTINUING TO BE
PROGGED AT 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ON STRONG SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE REGION. RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER...OVERALL INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED HEAVY RAINFALL FEATURES SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA AND
MAINLY WRAP AROUND PRECIP LINGERS OVER GENERALLY THE WESTERN U.P. AS
A DRY SLOT IS PROGGED TO WEDGE INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS...ALLOWING FOR MAINLY DRIZZLE.

HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL INCLUDING AREAL FLOOD WATCH...WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
LIKELY EXCEED 2 INCHES WITH UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA. MOST OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD...BETWEEN 06Z/10 AND 18Z/10.
THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ON VERY SATURATED SOILS WHICH WILL
ALLOW RUNOFF TO BEGIN QUICKLY. MANY AREAS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE U.P. ARE RUNNING AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE THE 2
WEEK NORMAL DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. SEVERAL RIVERS WITHIN THE
FLOOD WATCH ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL WITH ANY ADDITIONAL
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TO INCREASE THESE LEVEL...SOME OF WHICH
MAY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE...BASED ON HEAVIER RAINFALL GUIDANCE.

OUTSIDE OF THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL...STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN
ISSUE. AS THE LOW PUSHES INTO THE REGION...A FAIRLY STRONG AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN CANADA. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE LAND AREAS AWAY FROM
THE SHORE WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH. OVER THE LAKE...THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND AREAS NEAR THE SHORE WILL SEE WINDS
SUSTAINED CLOSER TO 35 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING AROUND 45 TO
EVEN 50 MPH. THIS IS SUPPORTED WITH CAA ACROSS THE LAKE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW WITH RELATIVELY WARM LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ALLOWING STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE. SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT WINDS MIXING DOWN FROM AROUND 925-900MB...WHERE WINDS ARE
PROGGED TO BE RIGHT AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH. CONFIDENCE IN HIGH WINDS IS
FAIRLY HIGH OVER THE LAKE...WITH A BIT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND
DIRECTION. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A GALE WATCH BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR JAMES
BAY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST...PUSHING INTO QUEBEC BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR KEEPING GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE FORECAST...HOWEVER...AS THE
LOW SLIPS AWAY AND THE HIGH BUILDS IN...WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES
PUSHING THROUGH. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVERHEAD ALONG
WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT AND DRIER AIR...ALLOWING THE PRECIP TO END
AND SKIES TO CLEAR. TEMPERATURES COULD BE QUITE COOL FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH CALM CONDITIONS...CLEARING SKIES AND PWAT VALUES AROUND 30 TO
40 PERCENT OF NORMAL. KEPT THE IDEA OF SEEING BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF THE U.P.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND SKIES MAINLY CLEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ON RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH. THE GFS/EC HAVE ANOTHER
SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE AREA DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
TIME PERIOD...HOWEVER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND THE OVERALL STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. LEANED HEAVILY ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU SUNRISE AND LIKELY THRU MOST OF THE
AFTN AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY. SHARP
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY THRU NW MN
WILL DRIFT S...REACHING W AND NW UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING.
CIGS SHOULD QUICKLY FALL TO LOW MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR AT KCMX/KIWD
AFTER FROPA PER UPSTREAM OBS BEHIND FRONT. THERE MAY BE SOME SHRA OR
EVEN TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE ON
COVERAGE/LOCATION OF PCPN IS LOW. FOR NOW...ONLY VCSH WAS INCLUDED IN
FCST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

THE TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS W LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DRIFT ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE NEARS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
LOW WILL BE OVER E IOWA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE TO PUSH
NE OVER E UPPER MI AND N LOWER MI LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
EXITING INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. N GALES TO AROUND 40KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR...BEFORE SLOWLY
EXPANDING TO CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER S ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN
THURSDAY WILL SINK ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE BUILDING
A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20KTS OR LESS.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

RAINFALL TOTALS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS UPPER MI
RANGE FROM JUST OVER 1.5IN TO NEARLY 3IN ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE ENHANCED LOCATIONS OF N CENTRAL
UPPER MI. AN AREAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS POSTED FOR MUCH OF W AND
CENTRAL UPPER MI. MUCH OF THE CWA IS IN THE DAY 2 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL OUTLOOK /SLIGHT RISK/ FOR DAY 2 /12Z WED-12Z THU/. THE
MORNING RIVER FCSTS WILL BE RAN WITH 48HR QFP VALUES...SO IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT REACTION IS EXPECTED. OUR LAST RAIN EVENT
DID NOT DO MUCH AT THE RIVER GAUGE LOCATIONS. RIVERS THAT ARE
RUNNING HIGHER /GENERALLY 1-2FT/ THAN THIS TIME LAST MONTH INCLUDE
THE SOUTH BRANCH OF THE ONTONAGON RIVER AT EWEN...THE FORD RIVER AT
HYDE...THE STURGEON RIVER AT NAHMA JUNCTION...AND THE MANISTIQUE
RIVER AT MANISTIQUE.

AT THIS POINT THE N CENTRAL RFC 3HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS HOVERING
BETWEEN 2-3.5IN...WITH 6HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS CLOSER TO 2.25 TO
OVER 4IN. OF COURSE IT/S VERY TERRAIN AND BASIN SPECIFIC. AS
PREVIOUSLY NOTED...MANY AREAS OF W AND CENTRAL UPPER MI ARE RUNNING
AROUND 2-4IN ABOVE THE 2 WEEK NORMAL PRECIP WISE DUE TO RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL. EXPECT THE TRADITIONAL URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT POSSIBLITY IN THE TYPICAL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS OF ESC IF
RAINFALL IS STEADY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
     MIZ001>006-009>013-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ251-267.

  GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ243>245-264>266.

  GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR LSZ162-240>242-263.

  GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ248>250.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF
HYDROLOGY...KF







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 123 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MAINLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS
THE NRN CONUS AND SRN CANADA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WI AND
ASSOCIATED 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV SUPPORTED SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPINKLES OVER NRN WI INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI. WITH THE
FORCING MAINLY IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER AND RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
JUST MID LEVEL CLOUDS/CIGS WERE REPORTED WITH MOST STATIONS NOT EVEN
REPORTING ANY MEASURABLE AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE...PARLTY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH PREVAILED OVER THE REST OF
THE CWA.

TONIGHT...EXPECT THE -SHRA/SPRINKLES OVER SW UPPER MI TO SLOWLY
SLIDE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS. THE LEFTOVER
MID CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO THIN OUT OVERNIGHT AS QVECTOR DIV SPREADS
INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH INCREASING SW FLOW 925-700 MB THETA-E
ADVECTION ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MAY SPREAD INTO THE WEST HALF LATE. THE
SRLY FLOW WILL KEEP MIN READINGS IN THE MID 50S INLAND TO AROUND 60
IN DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

TUESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
DROP THROUGH WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND AIDED BY THE LAKE BREEZE INTO THE
NW CWA BY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1K-2K RANGE...RELATIVELY WEAK
CAPPING AND THE POTENTIAL A WEAK SHORTWAVE BRUSHING THE AREA MAY
PRODUCE SOME ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE
WEST HALF. SINCE THE STRONGEST FORCING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NW OF
THE CWA...ONLY LOWER END CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2014

THE MAIN ISSUES THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE FLOODING POTENTIAL
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...GALES ON LAKE SUPERIOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MOVING IN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TO WESTERN IOWA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT OR AROUND 1000MB.
AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS SLIDES ACROSS
THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER...TAKING
THE LOW FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN THE OTHER MODELS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON
INCREASED MOISTURE UPGLIDE AS SHOWN ON THE 300K ISOSURFACE ALONG
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE SHOWN BY PLOTTING 1000-500 RH. THE BEST
CHANCE OF CONVECTION WOULD BE TUESDAY EVENING WITH INSTABILITY
LINGERING ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE LOW. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE
NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WHILE FURTHER STRENGTHENING
TO AROUND 990MB AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THIS POINT...THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
WOULD BE GREATEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WOULD BE IN PLACE AT THE SAME TIME ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE IS MAXIMIZED AND DEEP LAYER FORCING IS MAXIMIZED AS A FAIRLY
STRONG 700MB FGEN BAND WRAPS THROUGH THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...THE
AREA WILL LIE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET MAX TO THE SOUTH AND
PARTIALLY IN THE INFLUENCE OF A RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET MAX
TO THE NORTH. ALSO IN SUPPORT OF HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE PWAT VALUES CONTINUING TO BE
PROGGED AT 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ON STRONG SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE REGION. RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER...OVERALL INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED HEAVY RAINFALL FEATURES SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA AND
MAINLY WRAP AROUND PRECIP LINGERS OVER GENERALLY THE WESTERN U.P. AS
A DRY SLOT IS PROGGED TO WEDGE INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS...ALLOWING FOR MAINLY DRIZZLE.

HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL INCLUDING AREAL FLOOD WATCH...WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
LIKELY EXCEED 2 INCHES WITH UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA. MOST OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD...BETWEEN 06Z/10 AND 18Z/10.
THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ON VERY SATURATED SOILS WHICH WILL
ALLOW RUNOFF TO BEGIN QUICKLY. MANY AREAS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE U.P. ARE RUNNING AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE THE 2
WEEK NORMAL DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. SEVERAL RIVERS WITHIN THE
FLOOD WATCH ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL WITH ANY ADDITIONAL
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TO INCREASE THESE LEVEL...SOME OF WHICH
MAY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE...BASED ON HEAVIER RAINFALL GUIDANCE.

OUTSIDE OF THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL...STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN
ISSUE. AS THE LOW PUSHES INTO THE REGION...A FAIRLY STRONG AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN CANADA. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE LAND AREAS AWAY FROM
THE SHORE WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH. OVER THE LAKE...THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND AREAS NEAR THE SHORE WILL SEE WINDS
SUSTAINED CLOSER TO 35 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING AROUND 45 TO
EVEN 50 MPH. THIS IS SUPPORTED WITH CAA ACROSS THE LAKE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW WITH RELATIVELY WARM LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ALLOWING STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE. SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT WINDS MIXING DOWN FROM AROUND 925-900MB...WHERE WINDS ARE
PROGGED TO BE RIGHT AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH. CONFIDENCE IN HIGH WINDS IS
FAIRLY HIGH OVER THE LAKE...WITH A BIT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND
DIRECTION. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A GALE WATCH BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR JAMES
BAY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST...PUSHING INTO QUEBEC BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR KEEPING GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE FORECAST...HOWEVER...AS THE
LOW SLIPS AWAY AND THE HIGH BUILDS IN...WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES
PUSHING THROUGH. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVERHEAD ALONG
WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT AND DRIER AIR...ALLOWING THE PRECIP TO END
AND SKIES TO CLEAR. TEMPERATURES COULD BE QUITE COOL FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH CALM CONDITIONS...CLEARING SKIES AND PWAT VALUES AROUND 30 TO
40 PERCENT OF NORMAL. KEPT THE IDEA OF SEEING BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF THE U.P.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND SKIES MAINLY CLEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ON RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH. THE GFS/EC HAVE ANOTHER
SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE AREA DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
TIME PERIOD...HOWEVER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND THE OVERALL STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. LEANED HEAVILY ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU SUNRISE AND LIKELY THRU MOST OF THE
AFTN AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY. SHARP
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY THRU NW MN
WILL DRIFT S...REACHING W AND NW UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING.
CIGS SHOULD QUICKLY FALL TO LOW MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR AT KCMX/KIWD
AFTER FROPA PER UPSTREAM OBS BEHIND FRONT. THERE MAY BE SOME SHRA OR
EVEN TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE ON
COVERAGE/LOCATION OF PCPN IS LOW. FOR NOW...ONLY VCSH WAS INCLUDED IN
FCST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2014

SRLY WINDS TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER
NEW ENGLAND AND A TROUGH FROM NW ONTARIO INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
LOOK FOR THE TROUGH TO PUSH INTO LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY...WHILE A
STRONGER LOW ORGANIZES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT THE
DEEPENING LOW TO SHIFT NE ACROSS WI ON WEDNESDAY...AND ACROSS E
UPPER MI AND N LOWER MI LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE CONTINUING NE INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF
N GALES IS EXPECTED FROM WED MORNING THROUGH WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE WRN LAKES.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 431 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2014

HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL INCLUDING AREAL FLOOD WATCH...WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
LIKELY EXCEED 2 INCHES WITH UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA. MOST OF THE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD...BETWEEN 06Z/10 AND 18Z/10.
THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ON VERY SATURATED SOILS WHICH WILL
ALLOW RUNOFF TO BEGIN QUICKLY. MANY AREAS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE U.P. ARE RUNNING AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE THE 2
WEEK NORMAL DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. SEVERAL RIVERS WITHIN THE
FLOOD WATCH ARE RUNNING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TO INCREASE THESE
LEVEL...SOME OF WHICH MAY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE...BASED ON HEAVIER
RAINFALL GUIDANCE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
     MIZ001>006-009>013-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ243>245-264>267.

  GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR LSZ162-240>242-263.

  GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ248>251.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...KEC





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

 410 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

Morning radar looks mostly clear across the forecast area, with the
exception of a complex of thunderstorms currently over far eastern
Iowa. This thunderstorm complex is likely in response to a shortwave
mid level trough moving through the mid level flow. Perhaps
augmenting the mid level lift is a fairly weak low level jet around
20 kts at 850 mb. 305 K Theta E surface also indicates a decent
element of isentropic lift associated with this low level jet.
Through the night the complex has been mostly stationary, however
short range convective models indicate that it`ll make a E/SE jaunt
and perhaps clip the far northeastern zones with a few isolated to
scattered thunderstorms for the morning hours. Given that morning
convection should be relegated to the far NE corner of the CWA, have
generally backed off on PoPs for the southern and western fringes of
the CWA, holding off the best chances for rain until the late
afternoon into evening.

The focus then shifts to the afternoon for a potential severe
weather event, mainly north of Interstate 70, and especially north
of Highway 36. Through the day a potent surface trough will deepen
in far western Kansas. As this SFC low deepens a fairly strong
surface pressure gradient will form across eastern Kansas and
western Missouri. This will cause a decent push of warm air to move
northward in the form of a warm front. Currently there is a fairly
strong temperature gradient across northern Kansas and SE Nebraska,
characterized by temperatures in the middle 70s and dew points in
the upper 60s to lower 70s south of the boundary and temperatures in
the lower 60s with much lower dew points north of the boundary.
According to latest HRRR trends and the latest 06z NAM it appears
the warm front today will set up perhaps just north of the KS/NE
border arcing W/SW to E/NE across eastern Nebraska, perhaps just
north of the MO/IA border. Along this boundary there will be
strongly backed surface and low level winds, contributing to strong
wind profile curvature with height. With the good surge of gulf
moisture into the area, along with cooling temperatures aloft, models
currently prog afternoon instability to range between 2000 and 3000
J/Kg of surface based CAPE. One big caveat regarding afternoon
destabilization will be whether mid level clouds and any associated
elevated convection will cause enough cloud cover to mitigate surface
heating. But for now will proceed with the expectation that surface
based convection will be possible later this afternoon and that there
will be ample instability to produce robust updrafts.

As mentioned earlier the warm frontal boundary is expected to set up
just to the north of the forecast area, but that will put the area
in the warm sector with strongly backed surface and low level winds.
Aloft, mid level flow will be SW around 50 kts, causing a good
veering-with-height wind profile. Convection associated with the
boundary and low level jet will have a much better chance to occur
north of HWY 36 across far NE Kansas and SE Nebraska. Helping the
convection form will be a shortwave trough with plenty of mid level
ascent, expected to move across eastern Nebraska. This trough could
cause numerous thunderstorms across eastern Nebraska and western
Iowa, perhaps causing the severe weather event to become less
discreet and more linear with numerous storm interactions. Since the
best lift will take place further north the area will see only a
modest influence from the wave. This will act to mitigate convective
development farther south, toward Interstate 70. There could still be
enough glancing energy to cause an isolated storm or two to form as
far south as I-70, but again the best chances for these storms will
be north of KC metro. Should a storm get going in the area, the
aforementioned instability, along with deep layer shear of around 40
to 50 kts will allow for supercell structures. As the afternoon turns
to evening the low level jet will crank up to around 30 to 40 kts,
which will cause low level wind profiles to veer with height, causing
elongated hodographs. The parameters will be adequate for storms to
be strong to severe, with supercell structures possible, introducing the
possibility for all hazards of severe weather including wind, hail,
and perhaps a tornado or two, mainly north of HWY 36 toward the
KS/NE/IA border area. As storms continue to merge through the night
and cold pools interact, expect one or more bowing segments as the
low level jet veer to the SW overnight. Of concern with any bowing
segments will be forecast low level SRH to be on the order of 300 to
400 J/kg of 0-1 SRH, bringing in the possibility for
mesovortex/enhanced wind along the leading edge of any bowing
segments. This will also bring one or more complexes of thunderstorms
across northern Missouri, perhaps as far south as I-70 through the
overnight hours. The main hazard with this overnight thunderstorm
activity will be heavy rain and perhaps an isolated flooding/flash
flooding threat to far northern Missouri.

Through all this, the synoptic cold front, associated with the
surface low will remain off to the west, and likely won`t make it
into the forecast area until late Tuesday night into early Wednesday
morning. Expect some convection along this front, especially if it
fails to clear the area by the time insolation occurs on Wednesday.
A few storms could be strong, mainly across central and eastern
Missouri, as the front moves through.

The first blast of cool air will settle into the area behind the
cold front, as temperatures through mid to late week will drop to
the 60s and 70s for highs and 40s to 50s for lows. Models then prog
another fairly potent trough to make its way through the area for
the Friday/Sat time period, but with low moisture content in the
atmosphere it will be tough to generate much instability, so any
rain associated with this late-week trough should be light and
non-convective in nature. The second blast of reinforcing cold air
will then push into the area for the weekend, bringing highs 50s and
60s, and lows into the 40s and 50s. Saturday morning, once the
surface high settles into the area behind the cold front,
temperatures across far northern Missouri could drop into the 30s.
For now, not anticipating any frost headlines, but will continue to
monitor, and should FCST temps go into the lower or middle 30s frost
headlines might be needed. By Sunday and Monday the surface high will
be east of the area and southerly return flow will cause a warm up
back toward seasonal normals.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1052 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014

Complex second-half of the TAF forecast with modest uncertainty.
Increasing chances of sct precipitation expected by late morning,
with much better chances by afternoon. Kept VFR for now, but could
certainty fall to MVFR or lower depending on robustness/coverage of
convection at terminal after 20Z. Should see winds back some by
afternoon/evening as surface low deepens and moves closer.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Blair






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

 348 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2014

A MCS has been going on across eastern IA and northwestern IL for a
good part of the overnight and the forward flank of it is
propagating slowly east-southeast.  Further south over our region,
southerly surface flow prevailed, and thanks to areas of clouds, are
keeping temps much warmer than where they were 24 hours ago, with
readings hovering near 70 in many locales.

Models not doing a very good job with handling the MCS to our north,
although the HRRR is about the most believable.  The main flow and
Corfidi vectors suggest this MCS will still mainly propagate E-SE
with the main body remaining to the north of our region, but this is
kicking off an outflow and with a weak lo level jet nosing into
northeast MO, cannot rule out some sunrise surprise in the way of
widely scattered TSRA.  The outflow dropping south may further
enable TSRA development into central IL heading deeper into the
morning and remain thru the afternoon, expanding westward into
northern MO.

As the heating of the day kicks in by midday, much of our region to
the west of STL will be in a weak CINH, very high moisture
environment and may be able to fire off isolated to scattered TSRA
during the afternoon.  Rain chances look less likely into southern
IL, depending on how the MCS to the north actually evolves.

Due to all of the dependencies on clouds and rain chances, it will
be hard to get a firm handle on temps today.  A MOS blend looks like
a reasonably good start, with above normal temps for many areas as
readings in the 80s are attained.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2014

Primary concern remains upcoming potential for heavy rain tonight
into Wednesday.  The longwave trof over the western CONUS will
continue to deepen and move east tonight.  The leading edge of the
trof should be out over the eastern Plains by 00Z which will force
lee-side cyclogenesis back over the Colorado/Kansas border.  The low
level jet ahead of the developing low level system system will
increase to 50-60kts resulting in impressive moisture transport from
the southeast.  GFS and NAM both show a tremendous amount of
moisture convergence over northern Missouri/southern Iowa on the
nose of the low level jet tonight.  The exact placement of the
heaviest rain is still in question with the GFS being further south
into our area, and the NAM being further north in Iowa.  A deep
warm-cloud layer and P-wats over 2.3 inches will certainly provide a
rich environment for heavy rain.  However, the SREF seems to agree
more with the NAM, as do the ARW and NMM WRF models.  Will therefore
hold off issuing any flooding headlines and let the day shift take
another look.

Guidance is in decent agreement in pushing the surface front through
the area Wednesday afternoon.  The low level jet ahead of the front
does diminish somewhat, but all models continue to show a 30-50kt
jet through much of the day with moisture convergence continuing
over the area.  Think there will be ongoing precip ahead of the
front, tho areal coverage is somewhat uncertain.  However, any
sunshine should allow for a rapid warm up in southwest flow and
18-20C temperatures at 850mb.  Therefore stuck pretty close to MOS
highs in spite of potential for a lot of cloud cover and rain
through the day.  Storms should form up into a line ahead of the
front in the afternoon and move south of the area by mid-late
evening.  Still think there is a decent chance for some of the
storms to be severe given the strong winds aloft and the possibility
that downdrafts could mix these winds to the surface.

Much cooler air will filter into the area and behind the front for
Thursday.  Temperatures will fall below normal, and are expected to
stay below normal through Monday.  Highs through the period will
mainly be in the mid 60s to around 70 with lows as low as the low to
mid 40s.  This will be 15-20 degrees below normal for
mid-September.  The only significant chance for precipitation beyond
Wednesday evening looks to be on Friday when another shortwave dives
southeast out of the northern Plains across the Midwest.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2014

Specifics for KUIN/KCOU: A thunderstorm complex is expected to
develop overnight and move southeastward. Thunderstorms are likely
at KUIN, but there is greater uncertainty about whether convection
would reach as far south as KCOU. Depending on where the outflow
boundaries are located, scattered thunderstorms are possible again
during the afternoon hours. LLWS conditions are expected very late
in the TAF period after a strong low level jet develops over KCOU.

Specifics for KSTL/KSUS/KCPS: A thunderstorm complex is expected
to develop overnight and move southeastward, possibly reaching the
St. Louis metro area as it dissipates. The most likely time period
for this to occur would be between 12-16z. Depending on where the
outflow boundaries are located, scattered thunderstorms are
possible during the afternoon hours. Precipitation chances
increase again very late in the TAF period at KSTL ahead of an
approaching cold front.

Kanofsky

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     87  74  87  59 /  30  60  80  50
Quincy          81  71  79  52 /  50  90  80  20
Columbia        87  71  82  55 /  30  70  80  30
Jefferson City  88  73  83  55 /  30  70  80  30
Salem           83  70  85  60 /  10  20  80  80
Farmington      86  71  87  60 /  10  30  80  70

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

 320 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2014

A MCS has been going on across eastern IA and northwestern IL for a
good part of the overnight and the forward flank of it is
propagating slowly east-southeast.  Further south over our region,
southerly surface flow prevailed, and thanks to areas of clouds, are
keeping temps much warmer than where they were 24 hours ago, with
readings hovering near 70 in many locales.

Models not doing a very good job with handling the MCS to our north,
although the HRRR is about the most believable.  The main flow and
Corfidi vectors suggest this MCS will still mainly propagate E-SE
with the main body remaining to the north of our region, but this is
kicking off an outflow and with a weak lo level jet nosing into
northeast MO, cannot rule out some sunrise surprise in the way of
widely scattered TSRA.  The outflow dropping south may further
enable TSRA development into central IL heading deeper into the
morning and remain thru the afternoon, expanding westward into
northern MO.

As the heating of the day kicks in by midday, much of our region to
the west of STL will be in a weak CINH, very high moisture
environment and may be able to fire off isolated to scattered TSRA
during the afternoon.  Rain chances look less likely into southern
IL, depending on how the MCS to the north actually evolves.

Due to all of the dependencies on clouds and rain chances, it will
be hard to get a firm handle on temps today.  A MOS blend looks like
a reasonably good start, with above normal temps for many areas as
readings in the 80s are attained.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2014

Short term (Tuesday-Thursday)

Overall forecast trends remain the same for the upcoming forecast
package, with a few tweaks to PoPs in the Wednesday/Wednesday night
time frame in an attempt to fine tune surge of showers and
thunderstorms across the CWA with the cold front.

Tomorrow`s thunderstorm threat will come from a combination of
tonight`s activity lingering into the morning, and additional
development during the afternoon as the airmass destabilizes.  Max
destabilization and greatest chance of redevelopment should occur in
the deeper moisture over western sections of the CWA,  with models
forecasting very little if any convective inhibition during the
afternoon hours in this part of the CWA.   For now have continued
with chance/scattered type PoPs over about the western half of the
area, but it may be that impacts of any outflows from the morning
convection will cause a localized increase in these PoPs.  These
forecast adjustments will have to wait until overnight and Tuesday
morning convective trends become more clear.

As surface low ejects from the lee of the Rockies Tuesday night, low
level jet should strengthen dramatically across the mid-Missouri
Valley, with model consensus suggesting SW winds at 850mb of at
least 50-60kts by 06z.  The resultant ascent of the very moist and
unstable airmass should produce a large area of intense convection
fueled by very moist and unstable air to the NW of our CWA during
the evening, with at least some of this activity then moving into
northern sections of the FA during the overnight hours as the low
level jet veers to the east. It is also likely that this large
complex should be preceded by some of the afternoon activity which
persists into the evening hours.

Over the weekend it appeared that convection would rumble across the
entire CWA throughout the day on Wednesday, but last several
forecast cycles seem to suggest that there may be a bit more of a
break in the precip, with morning convection moving off to the east
and waning.  This will allow AMS to destabilize (temperatures
climbing into the upper 70s and 80s with dewpoints in the lower
70s), with the strong cold front then interacting with this very
unstable airmass during the afternoon to produce another round of
widespread convection along and ahead of the front. Severe weather
potential for Wednesday will definitely be tied to amount of
destabilization that can occur, with forecast soundings suggesting a
very moist AMS that would lead to damaging winds being the primary
severe weather threat.

In addition, any of the storms over the region from Tuesday
night-Wednesday evening will be very efficient rain producers, as
the tropical moisture connection pushes pwats in the warm sector
above 2 inches.  Since the primary corridor for convection for
tonight-Tuesday night appears to be just north of our CWA will not
be issuing any hydro headlines, but we will be keeping an eye on
this, and will mention the threat of heavy rain in the HWO.

Models remain in good agreement with the timing of the front across
the CWA, with cold front and associated convection exiting southeast
sections of the CWA on Wednesday night.  Believe effective boundary
will be far enough south on Thursday that PoPs will be south of our
CWA, so have dropped mention of showers in the far south.  Leading
edge of the cold air will make Thursday a much cooler day as
compared to Wednesday, with highs dropping back into the 60s and
70s.

Medium range (Friday-Monday)

Guidance continues to suggest cool September weather heading into
the weekend and into the start of next week as upper trof digs into
and deepens over the eastern CONUS, and highs in the 60s and lows in
the 40s appear to be a good bet for Friday and Saturday.  A slow
moderation should occur into early next week, but temps should still
remain below normal.

It does appear that there will be a shower threat late Thursday
night or and Friday as secondary cold front and shortwave zip across
the area; otherwise, little if any precipitation threat indicated.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2014

Specifics for KUIN/KCOU: A thunderstorm complex is expected to
develop overnight and move southeastward. Thunderstorms are likely
at KUIN, but there is greater uncertainty about whether convection
would reach as far south as KCOU. Depending on where the outflow
boundaries are located, scattered thunderstorms are possible again
during the afternoon hours. LLWS conditions are expected very late
in the TAF period after a strong low level jet develops over KCOU.

Specifics for KSTL/KSUS/KCPS: A thunderstorm complex is expected
to develop overnight and move southeastward, possibly reaching the
St. Louis metro area as it dissipates. The most likely time period
for this to occur would be between 12-16z. Depending on where the
outflow boundaries are located, scattered thunderstorms are
possible during the afternoon hours. Precipitation chances
increase again very late in the TAF period at KSTL ahead of an
approaching cold front.

Kanofsky

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     87  74  87  59 /  30  60  80  50
Quincy          81  71  79  52 /  50  90  80  20
Columbia        87  71  82  55 /  30  70  80  30
Jefferson City  88  73  83  55 /  30  70  80  30
Salem           83  70  85  60 /  10  20  80  80
Farmington      86  71  87  60 /  10  30  80  70

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

 259 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND EXTENT OF PRECIP WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM.

PRECIP RATHER SPARCE ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME DUE TO
LIMITED FORCING. A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AT 07Z AND A WARM FRONT FROM CENTRAL IOWA ACROSS NORTHWEST
KANSAS TO LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO. LATEST RAP AND HRRR
INDICATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 12Z AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 18Z AS
MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS AND 850MB FLOW INCREASES
AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. FORCING CONTINUES TO
INCREASE AFTER 18Z AND INTO THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES
WITH HIGHER POPS SPREADING INTO THE CWA AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND MOVES INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 06Z BUT SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS UPPER WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

COLDER AIR FOLLOWS BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME RECORD LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

COLD TEMPERATURES LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WARMER AIR COMING
BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014

MAIN AVN CONCERN IS POSSIBLE SVR TSRA DEVELOPING OVER ERN NEB TUES
AFTN. AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE OVER THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATER TONIGHT THEN RAPIDLY DEEPEN THRU THE DAY ON
TUES. MAIN FOCUS THEN TUES AFTN WILL BE UPON ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT LIFTING THRU THE REGION WITH TSRA ACTIVITY LIKELY. WITH HIGH
DEGREE OF ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IN PLACE...SVR TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS
QUITE PROBABLE AND WILL BE A THREAT TO ALL TERMINALS. IN
ADDITION...A FEW TORNADIC STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEE




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 330 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER UP THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE WEEK...
DRIFTING SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...THE CORRIDOR OF DEEPEST MOISTURE AND HEAVIEST
RAIN HAS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS
CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH. AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE WILL STILL
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR PORTION OF THE
LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER. HIGH TIDE AT WILMINGTON IS NEAR 1030 AM AND
11 PM. THE BEACHES WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE HIGHER THAN NORMAL
TIDES...BUT DEPARTURES OF ABOUT A HALF FOOT SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED JUST WEST OF ILM AND ALONG THE GRAND
STRAND BEACHES EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE
MOVING MUCH TODAY. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE
COAST TODAY AND AS THE LAST IN THE SERIES MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST...
THE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY GET KICKED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT.
WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN IN SHOWERS ALONG
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM EYF TO NEAR GGE TODAY. ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

THE COLUMN WILL BEGIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY DRY...FIRST INLAND WHERE A
DEEPENING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD FIRST AND THEN ALONG
THE COAST. WE WILL SEE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP FROM NEAR 2
INCHES THIS MORNING TO LESS THAN AN INCH AND A HALF TONIGHT WITH THE
MID LEVELS EXPERIENCING THE BIGGEST PUNCH OF DRY AIR. THIS SHOULD
FINALLY ALLOW MORE LATE SUMMER SUNSHINE TO VERY SLOWLY DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...IT WILL TAKE A GOOD PART OF THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THIS MORNING.
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL SUNSHINE
THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH THICK CLOUDS LIKELY
LINGERING ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.

LINGERING CLOUDS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS TODAY. WHERE SOME
SUNSHINE IS ABLE TO DEVELOP LONGEST...WE EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE
MID 80S. CURRENTLY...THIS SEEMS MOST PROBABLE ACROSS THE PEE DEE
REGION. OTHERWISE...HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER 80S WITH
PERHAPS ONLY 80 FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THE
TREND TOWARD LESS CLOUD COVER WILL ACCELERATE ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIST BEING REMOVED...BUT THE
TREND WILL BE FOR DEWPOINTS TO GRADUALLY LOWER. WILL FORECAST LOWS
IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S WITH LOWER 70S HOLDING ON AT THE BEACHES.

&&


.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW AND A DISSIPATING SURFACE
HIGH ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A DRY DAY WITH NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ON THURSDAY THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND A SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING OF THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BOOST THE AFTERNOON
WARMTH AS WELL SLIGHTLY MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
MOST PLACES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE SHOULD WARM INTO THE
LOW 90S. THE MORE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO DAYS WILL BE
THE AFTERNOON APPARENT TEMPERATURES.ON WEDNESDAY MOST PLACES WILL
TOP OUT AROUND 90 DEGREES BUT AS THE DEWPOINTS RISE THURSDAY THE
HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S. BOTH DAYS THIS EFFECT WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY TAPERED ALONG THE COAST. MODELS TRENDING A BIT FASTER
WITH MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT ESP THE GFS. WILL PUT
LOW POPS IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND MAY
TAKE A FULL 24 HOURS TO THEN BE ORIENTED RIGHT ALONG THE COAST LINE.
THIS SHOULD KEEP THINGS QUITE UNSETTLED FRIDAY AND PROBABLY SATURDAY
AS WELL. MODELS CANNOT SEEM TO DECIDE WHERE THE CORE OF THE COOL AIR
GOES HOWEVER. NORMALLY IN EARLY SEPTEMBER THIS ISN`T TOO BIG A DEAL
AS COOL FRONTS USUALLY JUST REPRESENT A DROP IN HUMIDITY THIS FAR
SOUTH. HOWEVER THIS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SOME CONSIDERABLY COOLER
AND DRIER AIR AND THE GFS IN PARTICULAR IS NOW HESITANT TO SHOVE IT
THIS FAR SOUTH. INSTEAD THE MODEL KEEPS THE SECONDARY FRONT...THE
MUCH COOLER AIR...OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WHILE THE LEADING AND
MUCH WEAKER FRONT MEANDERS AND WEAKENS NEAR THE COAST FOR THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. THE ADDED CLOUD COVER THAT THE FRONT WOULD YIELD
WOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN AND THERE WILL STILL BE AN AIRMASS CHANGE FROM
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TO BE SURE...BUT I`M NO LONGER CERTAIN WE`RE
IN FOR A `REFRESHING` AIRMASS THAT WE NORMALLY EXPERIENCE MUCH LATER
IN THE MONTH OR EVEN OCTOBER. A GLANCE AT THE NEW 00Z ECMWF WOULD
IMPLY THAT THE LATE PERIOD COOLDOWN WHILE STILL PRESENT...MAY NOT BE
VERY NOTEWORTHY.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS TRANSITIONED OFFSHORE...AND THE
LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THE COASTAL SITES WILL SEE MINIMAL IF ANY
PCPN IMPACTS AFTER 06Z. EXPECT MVFR/IFR STRATUS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT
AS COOLER AIR WRAPS AROUND LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A NEAR
STATIONARY FRONT. BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND SREF PROBABILITIES...
THE BEST CHANCES FOR IFR CIGS WILL BE INLAND AT KLBT/KFLO. THE
COASTAL TERMINALS MAY ALSO SEE AT LEAST TEMPO IFR CIGS. LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS INLAND WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY.
ALONG THE COAST...WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BECOME VRBL AS THE FRONT
WAVERS NEAR THE AREA. MVFR STRATOCU SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING. BUT FCST SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT A DRYING TREND BY THE AFTN
HOURS...SO EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FROM SW TO NE AFTER
MIDDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT NEARS THE
CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY TODAY
AND THEN FINALLY MOVE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS...UP TO 10 TO 15 KT THIS
MORNING FOR THE NORTHERNMOST WATERS...OTHERWISE 10 KT OR LESS
THROUGHOUT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE DIRECTION WILL PRIMARILY BE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST SOUTHWEST TODAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST
AND NORTH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST THIS
MORNING...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT...SUBSIDING TO 3 FT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON
AND 2 FT OR LESS TONIGHT.



SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...WIND AND SEAS BOTH MINIMAL ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER THE LANDMASS WEDNESDAY WASHES OUT AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. NE FLOW TO START THE DAY WILL GIVE TO WAY LIGHT AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW POSSIBLY EVEN DOMINATED BY MESOSCALE SEA
BREEZE AT LEAST NEAR THE SHORELINE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH ALSO STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT. NOT
LOOKING FOR SEAS TO INCREASE AS A RESULT OF THE NEW FLOW REGIME ON
ACCOUNT OF HOW WEAK WIND SPEEDS STAY PLUS THE FACT THAT NO
SIGNIFICANT SWELL ENERGY FOUND ANYWHERE OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC.



LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY ALBEIT VERY SLOWLY. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE GRADIENT FLOW
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND NOT MUCH BEHIND IT EITHER. IT WILL STALL
RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE EARLY SATURDAY AND MAY EVEN DRIFT A BIT
INLAND AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THIS KEEPS A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE
FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS HARD-PRESSED TO EXCEED 10
KT. THERE MAY BE VACILLATIONS IN DIRECTION OF THE SRLY FLOW FROM SE
TO SW AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WITH SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS. WITH SUCH LIGHT WINDS AND NO SWELL ENERGY TO SPEAK OF
SEAS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL, CAPPED AT 2 FT.



&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 1200 AM TUESDAY...TIDE LEVELS MEASURED AT THE CAPE FEAR
RIVER DOWNTOWN GAGE HAVE FALLEN BELOW 5.5 FT MLLW...THRESHOLD FOR
MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE CAPE FEAR RIVER FROM WILMINGTON SOUTH TO
CAPE FEAR. AN UPDATED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
ENDING TONIGHTS THREAT. WITH TOMORROW MORNINGS FORECAST HIGH TIDE
GAGE READING ALONG THE CAPE FEAR A THREAT TO BREAK MINOR COASTAL
FLOOD THRESHOLDS ONCE AGAIN...THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH NOON TUESDAY TO KEEP PEOPLE ALERT TO THIS
SUCCESSIVE HIGH TIDE FLOOD THREAT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ107.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR/RJD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TRA/DCH









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 315 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING AND OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE STATE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...

AFTER A VERY WET DAY WITH NUMEROUS REPORTS OF FLOODING... A SLOW
IMPROVEMENT FROM SW TO NE IS EXPECTED TODAY/TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL NC.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CANCELLED WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE... HOWEVER THERE COULD STILL BE WATER ON ROADS IN
MANY SPOTS THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR.

LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS A SURFACE LOW BETWEEN GSB AND FAY...
TRACKING VERY SLOWLY NE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE NC/SC
COASTAL PLAIN. RAIN COVERAGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS DECREASED
MARKEDLY SINCE MID EVENING AS DEEP STRONG LIFT HAS WANED... WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF A POTENT MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER (NOW OVER ERN NC)
TO THE NE... AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET BASED
OVER NEW ENGLAND IS ALSO EXITING... IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE HIGH 2"+
PRECIP WATER. BUT LOW LEVEL MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PERSISTS AT 295-
300K OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA... AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SLOW
TO END FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE DAY... FOLLOWING THE LATEST HRRR
RUNS WHICH HAVE PERFORMED FAIRLY WELL IN THE LAST 24 HRS. BUFR
SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS/NAM SHOW THE LOW STRATUS DISSOLVING FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON... AND WHILE THE PATTERN SEEMS
GOOD... IT LOOKS A LITTLE FAST BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED CONTINUED
ADVECTION OF MOIST LOW LEVEL (SURFACE-925 MB) AIR FROM THE NE (SEEN
ON 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES) INTO CENTRAL NC. SO WILL RETAIN LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR PATCHY RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE NRN/ERN CWA THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH A SLOW EXIT THIS AFTERNOON... AND HAVE SLOWED THE
GRADUAL CLEARING BY A FEW HOURS AS WELL. THE WRN AND SRN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NC HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING DECENT SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON... WHILE THE LONGER-LIVED CLOUDS IN THE FAR NRN AND NE CWA
WILL SUPPRESS THE TEMP RISE TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS FROM 75 NEAR KERR
LAKE TO 82 IN THE SW INCLUDING WADESBORO. THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES
ITS SLOW TREK OVER NE NC AND OFF THE VA TIDEWATER THIS EVENING... AS
THE LOW LEVEL NNE FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAW IN MOISTURE FROM THE
DELMARVA AND SE VA. REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS BY LATE EVENING OVER
THE NE CWA APPEARS LIKELY... AND THE RAP HINTS AT MORE PATCHY
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT OVER THE NE CWA. GIVEN THE LIGHT DIFFLUENT NATURE
OF SURFACE WINDS TO REINFORCE STABILITY IN THE LOWEST 50-100 MB...
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. WILL KEEP AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT... BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE FAR NORTH
AND NORTHEAST. LOWS 63-67. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...

EXPECT QUIET WEATHER WED/WED NIGHT. THE PARENT HIGH NE OF NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA... LEAVING JUST A
WEAK RESIDUAL SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN NC. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
WILL SLOWLY RISE AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OVER THE NW
ATLANTIC... AND AHEAD OF TROUGHING OVER THE NW/NCNTRL CONUS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY/STABLE MID LEVELS... BUT SCATTERED TO
BROKEN FLAT DIURNAL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON... YIELDING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THICKNESSES RECOVER AND
WITH DAYTIME HEATING... WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS... 83-87. LOWS 65-69. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...

UNSETTLED PERIOD EXPECTED FOR THE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED RANGE
FEATURES AN ELONGATED WEAK RIDGE ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH A DEVELOPING LONG WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THAT DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO RIDGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A 65+
KT JET AT 500 HPA MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
ON THURSDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. NWP GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF
THE FRONT WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH ALL OF NC AND
SETTLING NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF KCHS AT 12Z SAT WHILE THE ECMWF
STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A SUBSEQUENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
SATURDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO PASS ALONG A
SIMILAR COURSE LATE SUNDAY AND TUESDAY. GUIDANCE FROM BOTH THE GFS
OR EC KEEPS THE FRONT ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE LARGER SCALE NWP
GUIDANCE HAS TENDED TO KEEP THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTH OF OUR REGION
WHICH WOULD TEND TO FAVOR A SURFACE FRONT THAT IS LESS LIKELY TO
PUSH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST DISCUSSION FROM
WPC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LESS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.

THE RESULT IS A PATTERN THAT WOULD SUPPORT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD BUT
ONE IN WHICH CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST DETAILS...ESPECIALLY LATE IN
LONG TERM IS LOWER THAN TYPICAL. FOR NOW WILL ADVERTISE AN INCREASE
IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE EVENTUAL
FRONTAL POSITION WILL DETERMINE THE DISTRIBUTION OF POPS AND
TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH A DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BECOMING BELOW
AVERAGE BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT IN GENERAL THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. -BLAES
&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM TUESDAY...

IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH NOON. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THEN VFR IS EXPECTED AT INT/GSO
FROM 15Z-18Z... AT RDU/FAY 17Z-20Z... AND AT RWI 19Z-22Z. MVFR-IFR
CIGS MAY RETURN AT RDU/RWI AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN GSB AND FAY WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NE THIS MORNING... TRACKING ALONG
A FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE
N AND NE OVER CENTRAL NC HAVE KEPT A FLOW OF MOIST LOW LEVEL
ATLANTIC AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND DRIZZLE
WILL LINGER OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS IMPACTING RDU/RWI THROUGH
SUNRISE. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SLOW TAPERING OFF OF THIS
RAIN/DRIZZLE FROM SW TO NE THROUGH LATE MORNING / EARLY AFTERNOON...
WITH VSBYS REBOUNDING TO VFR ALSO FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION STARTING
THIS EVENING... RESULTING IN WINDS BECOMING LIGHT... AND WITH THESE
LIGHT WINDS AND A WET GROUND... REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED PRIMARILY AT RDU/RWI TOWARD LATE EVENING.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY WED MORNING... SUB-VFR CIGS SHOULD HOLD
MAINLY AT RDU/RWI UNTIL 12Z... THEN THESE CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT WITH
HEATING... AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER
14Z WED... THROUGH THU NIGHT. MVFR-IFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE LATE THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE FRI THROUGH
SAT AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 147 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER UP THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE WEEK...
DRIFTING SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1100 PM MONDAY...UPDATE CONCERNED WITH RE-ALIGNING THE
CURRENT FLOOD WATCH. BASED ON THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS...THE COLD
FRONT HAS BASICALLY SWEPT ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE ILM CWA
AT THE MOMENT. THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER RDU AT THE MOMENT...WITH
THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH TO LITTLE RIVER INLET...THEN SW
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SC. WITH THE BEST FORCING/LIFT AND
DEEPEST MOISTURE IE. 2+ PWS...ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT.
THIS HAS LEAD TO A RE-STRUCTURE OF THE FLOOD WATCH TO A REDUCTION
TO JUST 3 COUNTIES THAT REMAIN EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...BRUNSWICK
NEW HANOVER AND PENDER. LATEST POPS AND QPF FIELDS HAVE BEEN ALSO
RE-ALIGNED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEW FLOOD WATCH CONFIGURATION.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS MAY NEED A TWEAK HERE AND THERE...BUT THE COOL
AND DRIER AIR SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT STILL BASICALLY WELL
UPSTREAM TO AFFECT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEPARTING NORTHEAST TUE
MORNING WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
THIS SHOULD BRING ABOUT A FAIRLY QUICK END TO ANY LINGER PRECIP TUE
MORNING FOR INLAND SITES. ALONG THE COAST MEASURABLE PRECIP MAY HANG
ON INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SLOWLY EXPANDING SOUTHERN CONUS 5H RIDGE. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TUE. GRADUAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THE NC COAST IS LIKELY TO REMAIN CLOUDY
THROUGH SUNSET. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A MIXED BAG WITH INLAND AREAS
RUNNING WARMER DUE TO BREAKS OF SUN LATER IN THE DAY AND SUBTLE
HEIGHT INCREASES. ALONG THE COAST HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO. CLEARING LATE TUE NIGHT COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF LOW
STRATUS OR FOG JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. LATE CLOUD/FOG WILL HELP KEEP
LOWS NEAR CLIMO TUE NIGHT.

MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON WED AS MID
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO EXPAND EAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP DRY AIR BUILDING IN...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. DEEP DRY AIR ALONG WITH WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVENT DEVELOPMENT OF ANY
MEANINGFUL CONVECTION WED AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE NEAR ZERO.
AFOREMENTIONED NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP HIGHS
ALONG THE COAST A LITTLE COOLER...THOUGH STILL ABOVE CLIMO. TEMPS
WED AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM LOW 90S INLAND SC TO MID 80S ALONG THE
NC COAST. WEAK WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS WED NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE. SOME MOISTURE RETURN ALONG WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW MAY ALLOW DEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATE IN THE PERIOD. LIGHT
RETURN FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOG WILL KEEP LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
EARLY THURS AS RIDGE HOLDS ON ALOFT...BUT BY LATE THURS INTO
FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS. SHOULD REMAIN
DRY FOR THURS AT LEAST OVER MOST OF AREA BUT BY THURS NIGHT INTO
FRI...EXPECT INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. PCP WATER VALUES AS LOW AS 1.4 INCHES
THURS MORNING WILL RAMP UP GREATER THAN 2 INCHES JUST AHEAD AND
ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH FRI. LOOKS LIKE FRONT
WILL GET HUNG UP OVER THE COAST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LEAVING A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THIS MAINTAINS A SW FLOW
ALOFT RUNNING PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND MAY KEEP FRONT HUNG UP
OVER OR NEARBY AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A MORE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE MAY REACH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO GIVE FRONT A PUSH OFF
SHORE BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. OVERALL EXPECT CLOUDS AND
PCP IN FORECAST FOR MUCH OF FRI AND SATURDAY WITH SOME CLEARING BY
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN TERMS OF HOW FAR SOUTH
THE FRONT WILL INITIALLY MAKE IT BEFORE STALLING. TOUGH WIND
FORECAST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT THURS INTO FRI BUT
MAY SEE WINDS BECOME VARIABLE OR NORTH AS FRONT REACHES INTO AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.

EXPECT TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO ON THURS...BUT BY FRI INTO SATURDAY
CLOUDS AND SHWRS WILL AFFECT THE TEMPS AND THEN SOME COOLER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE IN BEHIND FRONT LATER ON SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...KEEPING TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WILL SEE SOME READINGS IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS INLAND WITH
COMBINATION OF COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE N-NW AND CLOUDS AND PCP
OVER THE AREA LATE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS TRANSITIONED OFFSHORE...AND THE
LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THE COASTAL SITES WILL SEE MINIMAL IF ANY
PCPN IMPACTS AFTER 06Z. EXPECT MVFR/IFR STRATUS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT
AS COOLER AIR WRAPS AROUND LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A NEAR
STATIONARY FRONT. BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND SREF PROBABILITIES...
THE BEST CHANCES FOR IFR CIGS WILL BE INLAND AT KLBT/KFLO. THE
COASTAL TERMINALS MAY ALSO SEE AT LEAST TEMPO IFR CIGS. LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS INLAND WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY.
ALONG THE COAST...WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BECOME VRBL AS THE FRONT
WAVERS NEAR THE AREA. MVFR STRATOCU SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING. BUT FCST SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT A DRYING TREND BY THE AFTN
HOURS...SO EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FROM SW TO NE AFTER
MIDDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT NEARS THE
CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1115 PM MONDAY...SFC COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
SC COAST AT THE MOMENT...WITH WIND DIRECTIONS AT SW-NW. WILL TAKE
A SURGE OR PUSH FOR THE COLD FRONT ITSELF TO REALLY MAKE SOME
PROGRESS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT...WILL HOLD ONTO A
SOLID S-SW 15 KT WIND FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH...AND SW-WSW
10-15 KT ACROSS THE SC WATERS SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET. THE SFC
PG ACROSS THE ILM WATERS WILL BE RELAXING AS THE SFC LOW PULLS
FURTHER AWAY TO THE NE OVERNIGHT INTO TUE. THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS AT
2 TO 4 FEET IN THE NEAR TERM WILL REMAIN A FUNCTION OF LOCAL WIND
DRIVEN WAVE PRODUCTION...WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AT 4 TO 6 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...EXITING LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE
STALLED FRONT OFF THE COAST DURING TUE. SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TUE AND
TUE NIGHT. GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK AND THE LACK OF ANY COLD PUSH WILL
KEEP WIND SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS BOTH PRE AND POST FRONT. ELONGATED
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WED WITH WINDS VEERING TO
NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY. LATE IN THE DAY SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH NORTHERLY FLOW UNDER 10 KT BECOMING LIGHT AND HIGHLY
VARIABLE. WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT WILL CARRY
OVER FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PERIOD BUT WILL QUICKLY DROP TO 2 TO
3 FT TUE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND OFFSHORE FLOW.
FURTHER REDUCTION IN SEAS IS ANTICIPATED ON WED.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THURS
BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH AND COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE
CAROLINAS...BUT OVERALL EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL REACH BEFORE
STALLING AND THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WINDS SHOULD COME AROUND TO
THE NE TO N AS FRONT GETS A PUSH SOUTHWARD. WILL SHOW A NORTHERLY
SURGE UP TO 15 KTS BY SUN MORNING BUT THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT ON HOW
FAR SOUTH THE COLD FRONT MAKES IT AND HOW MUCH COLD AIR BLEEDS SOUTH
INTO THE WATERS. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT MAY INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FT IN
INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW BY SATURDAY AND MAY SEE A BIT MORE OF AN
INCREASE BY SUNDAY IN COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 1200 AM TUESDAY...TIDE LEVELS MEASURED AT THE CAPE FEAR
RIVER DOWNTOWN GAGE HAVE FALLEN BELOW 5.5 FT MLLW...THRESHOLD FOR
MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE CAPE FEAR RIVER FROM WILMINGTON SOUTH TO
CAPE FEAR. AN UPDATED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
ENDING TONIGHTS THREAT. WITH TOMORROW MORNINGS FORECAST HIGH TIDE
GAGE READING ALONG THE CAPE FEAR A THREAT TO BREAK MINOR COASTAL
FLOOD THRESHOLDS ONCE AGAIN...THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH NOON TUESDAY TO KEEP PEOPLE ALERT TO THIS
SUCCESSIVE HIGH TIDE FLOOD THREAT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ105>110.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ107.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR/RJD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TRA/DCH






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

 1055 PM MDT MON SEP 8 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM MDT MON SEP 8 2014

LATEST RETURNS FROM KCYS SHOWS INITIAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION
LIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST THRU CONVERSE AND NRN PLATTE
COUNTIES...WITH THE NEXT BAND LIFTING NE OUT OF NRN COLORADO.
LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS. SO...HAVE BOOSTED POPS ACROSS MANY
AREAS DURING THAT PERIOD GIVEN THE EXPECTED AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THAT TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM MDT MON SEP 8 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT MAINLY
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. LATE TONIGHT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL SPREAD
NORTH AND EAST INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH
GENERALLY SHOWERS OVER THE AREA AS THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY
BEGIN TO COOL TUESDAY WITH THE INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION BUT BY WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S AND 60S
AS LOW CLOUDS AND UPSLOPE FLOW PUSH ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. A SECOND PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL COME WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THAT SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL
BASED ON LATEST FORECAST MODELS...BUT THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN
COLDER AND SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH SO NOT RULING OUT A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. COULD ALSO SEE SOME SNOW INTO EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...SUCH AS ALONG THE PINE RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AIR
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GO BELOW FREEZING OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE. ANY SNOW THAT WOULD FALL WOULD LIKELY MELT ONCE HITTING
THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT MON SEP 8 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE THE STRONG
AUTUMN-LIKE COLD FRONT DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND
FRONT RANGE ON THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND BULK OF THE
COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS IS STILL SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
THE ECMWF AND GEM MODELS...BUT IS STARTING TO TREND COOLER
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY AND BECOME STRONGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH LIKELY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS UPSLOPE FLOW BECOMES STRONGER.
ENHANCEMENT IN PRECIP RATES IS EXPECTED AS A STRONG 110 KNOT JET
SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE DAKOTAS LATE
ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...ANY SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL FURTHER
ENHANCE PRECIP RATES AS FROPA OCCURS. CONTINUED TO INCREASE POP UP
TO 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...MAINLY FROM THE NORTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PINE RIDGE WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE
THE HIGHEST PRECIP RATES DUE TO SLIGHTLY BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING.
INCREASED POP BETWEEN 40 TO 55 PERCENT ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR FOR
NOW...MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHEN/IF THE
RAIN CHANGES MIXES WITH OR CHANGES TO SNOW. THE FIRST SNOWFALL OF
THE SEASON IS APPEARING MORE LIKELY AS TIME GOES ON ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS SINCE MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COLDER. EXPECT
SNOWLEVELS TO LOWER BETWEEN 4000 TO 5500 FEET ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR ON GRASSY SURFACES SINCE SNOWFALL
RATES WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THE WARM GROUND...AND THAT IS NOT
CLEAR AT THIS TIME. WENT WITH A 4O TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WESTERN CARBON
COUNTY AND THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES INCLUDING SIDNEY AND
BRIDGEPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL MUCH MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. SOME LOCATIONS FURTHER
NORTH MAY NOT EVEN HIT 40 DURING THE DAY AS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS
OVER THE AREA AND MOVES SOUTH. MAY SEE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD HARD
FREEZE ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...AND PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS BETWEEN 26
TO 32 DEGREES.

AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS BARELY REACHING 50
DEGREES...A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THIS
WEEKEND. ALL MODELS SHOW A BROAD RIDGE ALOFT SLOWLY BUILDING INTO
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH
POP BELOW 5 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM MDT MON SEP 8 2014

SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PASS OVER MANY OF THE AREA TERMINALS THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND
LOCATION DETAILS...HAVE INCLUDED VCTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...BUT SHOULD SEE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT KCDR AFTER 18Z AND AT ALL
AIRFIELDS AFTER 02Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT MON SEP 8 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND INTO
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING
LATE TONIGHT AND THEN SPREAD EAST INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TURNING COOLER TUESDAY AND THEN COLDER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. IT WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH THAT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY INTO EAST CENTRAL WYOMING
AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAHN
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...SML








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN DIEGO CA

 430 AM PDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...MAINLY TO THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. DRY
WEATHER WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL
EXPAND WESTWARD BRING WARMING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE
MAY RETURN WITH A RENEWED CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...


.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND OTHER SOUTHERN AREAS. VALUES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES AND VALUES AT POINT LOMA
HAVE RISEN STEADILY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS TO AROUND 2 INCHES AS LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE NORTHERN EDGES OF THE REMAINING LOWER LEVEL
CIRCULATION OF WHAT WAS ONCE HURRICANE NORBERT SPREADS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THIS HAS BROUGHT IN A BROKEN CLOUD
DECK TO SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY WITH THE BASES NEAR 3000 FEET MSL.
THE CURRENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN LINE WITH THE 08Z RUN
OF THE EXPERIMENTAL NCEP VERSION OF THE HRRR. THE NAM IS LOWER THAN
THE OBSERVED VALUES AND APPEARS TO BE TOO FAST WITH THE DRYING. THE
NCEP HRRR SHOWS CURRENT PRECIPITABLE VALUES BEING MAINTAINED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING IN THE LOWER DESERTS
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE NCEP HRRR KEEPS MOST
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE BORDER OVER FAR NORTHERN
BAJA. THE CURRENT FORECAST RETAINS THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WHERE
THE RESIDUAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE MIGHT
BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST AREAS.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG MIGHT RETURN. BUT THE RELATIVELY STRATUS FREE PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY THE WARMEST FOR
THE SUMMER SO FAR...AROUND 76 DEGREES NEAR THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
COAST. THIS WILL DO LITTLE TO HELP WITH STRATUS FORMATION.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL EXPAND WESTWARD BRINGING ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
CURRENT GUIDANCE WOULD WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES TO 6 TO 12 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE THIS WILL BE A WARM PERIOD...
CURRENT GUIDANCE MOSTLY KEEPS TEMPERATURES BELOW RECORD LEVELS AND
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR THE INLAND EMPIRE
ON SUNDAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY RETURN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR A
RENEWED CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

CURRENT NHC FORECASTS GIVE THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OFF THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A
TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS. CURRENT ECMWF AND GFS FORECASTS
MOVE THIS ON A TRACK SIMILAR TO NORBERT...TO A POSITION OFF THE
SOUTHWEST BAJA COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT WITH MOVEMENT THEREAFTER
SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER COOLER WATERS...ANY IMPACT TO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MIGHT WELL BE LITTLE MORE THAN ENHANCED MONSOON
FLOW SIMILAR TO NORBERT.

&&

.AVIATION...
090930Z...COAST/VALLEYS...OCCASIONAL SCT/BKN CLOUDS BETWEEN
6000-8000 FT MSL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 09/1800Z THIS MORNING. A
BKN/OVC LOW CLOUD DECK IS NOT EXPECTED TO FORM WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
SKC CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVE INLAND 5-10 SM AFT 10/0600Z...ESPECIALLY
OVER SAN DIEGO COUNTY. BASES AROUND 1000 FT MSL AND TOPS 1400 FT
MSL. CONFIDENCE OF STRATUS RETURN IS LOW TO MODERATE.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT/BKN CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 8000 FT MSL WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
09/1900Z-10/0100Z...WITH BASES MOSTLY AROUND 8000 FT MSL WITH TOPS
TO 35000 FT MSL. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCAL SFC
WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
200 AM...NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...JT










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

 ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
938 AM MDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 AM MDT TUE SEP 9 2014

UPDATE MAINLY TO RAISE POPS A BIT IN THE SHORT TERM...BASED
ON OBS AND LATEST HI-RES MODELS. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIP POTENTIAL OVR THE PLAINS TODAY...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY AT LEAST MENTIONABLE POPS
FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS EVE. HRRR SUGGESTS TWO ROUNDS
OR WAVES OF PRECIP...ONE THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY N OF HGWY
50...THEN ANOTHER OVER THE DVD AND PIKES PEAK REGION EARLY THIS
EVE...WITH BOTH ZONES OF PRECIP MOVING EWD AT A DECENT SPEED.
THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT FLOOD POTENTIAL...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THE BURN SCARS. GREATEST FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES TO BE OVR THE
CONTDVD THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ROSE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 742 AM MDT TUE SEP 9 2014

BROUGHT IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND BLENDED INTO SHORT TERM GRIDS.
NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...DISTURBANCE AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE THROUGH TODAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NEVADA THIS MORNING WILL COMBINE
WITH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE COMING UP ACROSS ARIZONA TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO TODAY.
HARDEST HIT WILL BE AREAS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  A SECONDARY
MAXIMUM OF ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TEND TO BE RATHER SPOTTY.

THE PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON BURN SCARS.  PROBABLY THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE SCAR TODAY WILL BE THE WEST FORK.  THUS...THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THERE.  THE WALDO CANYON AND BLACK
FOREST BURN SCARS PROBABLY HAVE THE SECOND GREATEST RISK TODAY.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LOT LESS THEN
LOCATIONS FARTHER WEST...SO NO WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS.  NEVER THE
LESS...CLOSE MONITORING OF THOSE AREAS WILL CONTINUE FOR THAT
POSSIBLE HIT OR MISS STORM THAT COULD DEVELOP.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO NEAR
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL KEEP THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.  THE
SOURCE OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSITIONING OVER FROM SUBTROPICAL
TO PACIFIC SO THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL DIMINISH.
AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  THE FRONT MAY OR MAY
NOT PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.  MODELS HAVE BEEN
BACK AND FORTH ON THIS...WITH THE LATEST RENDITION LEANING MORE
TOWARD NAY RATHER THAN YEA.  WILL KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP
IN ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LIGHT POST FRONTAL PRECIP. LW

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...A BIG COOL DOWN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO...

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
TRANSLATE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF SAID TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SLIDING DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF A
TAD SLOWER THAN THE NAM. AT ANY RATE...WITH WAA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
PASSING SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT POPS IN TACT ACROSS THE EASTERN
MTS AND PLAINS THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH POPS CONFINED TO OVER AND
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
THE DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA TO COOL
INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY
IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FLOW ALOFT PROGGED TO BECOME MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...AS A STRONGER CANADIAN SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO BY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE WARMING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS...SAVE A FEW POSSIBLE WAA SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BEHIND FROPA THURSDAY EVENING
AND NIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF
COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS STILL
THE WARMEST...BRINGING H7 TEMPS DOWN TO +2C ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK
REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY...WHERE AS THE 00Z EC HAS H7 TEMPS OF -4C AND
THE 06Z NAM NOW HAS H7 TEMPS BETWEEN -2C AND -4C. AT ANY
RATE...SHOULD SEE STRONG FRONTAL PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
THURSDAY EVENING WITH SOUNDINGS INDICATING LOWER LEVELS QUICKLY
SATURATING BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS ALONG WITH WESTERLY MID LEVEL
WAA...SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. HAVE CONTINUED
TO TREND TEMPS DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AND TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE TELLER
COUNTY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY AND A COLD RAIN
ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS. HAVE ALSO TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY
DOWNWARD ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S (SOME 20-30 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS)
WITHIN COOL UPSLOPE FLOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN THE OFFING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST
GFS IS A TAD MORE AMPLIFIED INDICATING MORE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE RIPPLING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS MAINLY SLIGHT POPS OVER AND NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO
AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT TUE SEP 9 2014

A MIXED BAG OF WEATHER TODAY WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE COMBINING
WITH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.  PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY IS FOR STORMS
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING.  POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN STORMS...MAINLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...AND ALSO AROUND THE PIKES PEAK REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  ELSEWHERE...SUCH CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SPOTTY.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ067-068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...LW



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

 1049 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS
AND GEORGIA FROM THE NORTH. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION. THIS
MOISTURE IS IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN A PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG
THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA
COASTS. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE LOW SHIFTING FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD WITH
MOISTURE BECOMING MORE SHALLOW IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE DECREASE IN
MOISTURE WITH SOME HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD HELP CAUSE BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDINESS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S
NORTH...AND MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S SOUTH. THE SHOWER CHANCE IS LOW
BECAUSE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT.
NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WIND AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD HELP SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT.
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION. A FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WEDNESDAY. PAST FEW MODELS RUNS HAVE AGREED ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. COLD FRONT
WILL BE STRETCHED BEGINNING THURSDAY FROM NEW ENGLAND
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
THE FRONT WILL MARCH EASTWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND REACH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE COAST AND STALL ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY. BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL
REMAINS OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. WITH THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO THE
FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST POPS CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION. THIS
MOISTURE IS IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN A PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG
THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA
COAST. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE LOW SHIFTING FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD WITH
MOISTURE BECOMING MORE SHALLOW. THE DECREASE IN MOISTURE WITH SOME
HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD HELP CAUSE IMPROVING CEILINGS. WE USED
THE RAP TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND GFS LAMP FOR THE TIMING OF
IMPROVING CEILINGS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THIS EVENING. NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH LIGHT
WIND AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD
HELP SUPPORT FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. MOST OF
THE NAM AND GFS MOS INDICATED IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG MAY OCCUR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

 812 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS
AND GEORGIA FROM THE NORTH. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN NC THIS MORNING WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA AND ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA
FROM THE NORTH. CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER NORTHEAST. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN MIDLANDS AND
CSRA WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER. AS PER
GUIDANCE...WE WENT WITH POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. EVEN WITH A
LITTLE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LIGHT WIND WITH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRY AIR ALOFT
SHOULD HELP SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION. A FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WEDNESDAY. PAST FEW MODELS RUNS HAVE AGREED ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. COLD FRONT
WILL BE STRETCHED BEGINNING THURSDAY FROM NEW ENGLAND
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
THE FRONT WILL MARCH EASTWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND REACH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE COAST AND STALL ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY. BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL
REMAINS OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. WITH THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO THE
FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST POPS CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH
FROM NORTH CAROLINA ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS RESULTING IN NORTH TO
NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
REGION. WE USED THE RAP TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND GFS LAMP FOR THE
TIMING OF IMPROVING CEILINGS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LIGHT WIND WITH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRY
AIR ALOFT SHOULD HELP SUPPORT FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORT IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG MAY OCCUR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

 755 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS
AND GEORGIA FROM THE NORTH. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN NC THIS MORNING WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA AND ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA
FROM THE NORTH. CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER NORTHEAST. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN MIDLANDS AND
CSRA WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER. AS PER
GUIDANCE...WE WENT WITH POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. EVEN WITH A
LITTLE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LIGHT WIND WITH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRY AIR ALOFT
SHOULD HELP SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION. A FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WEDNESDAY. PAST FEW MODELS RUNS HAVE AGREED ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. COLD FRONT
WILL BE STRETCHED BEGINNING THURSDAY FROM NEW ENGLAND
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
THE FRONT WILL MARCH EASTWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND REACH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE COAST AND STALL ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY. BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL
REMAINS OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. WITH THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO THE
FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST POPS CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH
FROM NORTH CAROLINA ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS RESULTING IN NORTH TO
NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
REGION. WE USED THE RAP TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND GFS LAMP FOR THE
TIMING OF IMPROVING CEILINGS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LIGHT WIND WITH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRY
AIR ALOFT SHOULD HELP SUPPORT FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORT IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 641 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN ORGANIZING IN THE PLAINS TODAY
AND WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CLIMB TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE 60S AND
IT WILL FEEL MORE HUMID OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 538 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

PRECIPITATION ACROSS IL CONTINUES TO EXPAND EAST ALONG THETA E SURGE...ALBEIT
PCPN APPEARS TO BE LIGHT ON EASTERN FLANK. GETTING TOO CLOSE FOR
COMFORT AND 07Z HRRR NOW BRINGS SOME LIGHT QPF INTO FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST OTHER HIRES GUIDANCE STILL
DEPICTS NO PCPN INTO OUR AREA BUT RADAR/SAT TRENDS SUGGEST A LOW
POP IS PRUDENT THIS MORNING ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS QUIET BUT EXPECT INCREASING
MOISTURE DURING THE PERIOD AHEAD OF POTENT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FOR WEDNESDAY.

INITIAL THETA E SURGE RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EARLY
THIS MORNING UPSTREAM ACROSS EASTERN IA AND NORTHWEST IL. RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWS THIS PCPN STRUGGLING TO MOVE EAST INTO DRIER AIR AND
MOST HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS PCPN WEST OF OUR AREA TODAY. WILL
THEREFORE KEEP A DRY FORECAST INTACT TODAY BUT WILL SEE INITIAL
SURGE OF HIGHER THETA E AIR WORK EAST DURING THE DAY. MID AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY BE THIN AT TIMES DURING THE DAY. FILTERED SUNSHINE
EXPECTED. CLOUDS TO OFFSET WARMER 925-850MB TEMPS SO HIGHS TODAY
EXPECTED NEAR OR JUST ABOVE MONDAY TEMPS.

STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS TONIGHT IN THE PLAINS WITH POTENT SHORT
WAVE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS. SECONDARY THETA E SURGE
WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT BUT MAIN FORCING EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST
OF OUR AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS DEPICTED ON
MODELS WITH SOME SATURATION BUT EXPECT THIS TO GO MORE INTO CLOUD
FORMATION AND MOISTENING OF ATMOSPHERE. THETA E GRADIENT DOES ENTER
NORTHWEST AREAS LATE SO WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE THERE LATE TONIGHT.
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...GRADIENT AND MOISTURE EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO
REMAIN IN THE 60S. HAVE USED A WARMER BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.


&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

ALL EYES ON WEDNESDAY`S SYSTEM WITH CHILLY TEMPS BEING THE ONLY
SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA STILL EXPECTED TO EJECT
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT CROSSES
THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT A TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE REGION AND COUPLED
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAKS WILL FAVOR STRONG CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. SYNOPTIC SCALE DETAILS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN LATEST MODEL
SUITE. BEST PV ADVECTION AND DEFORMATION FORCING WILL PASS TO OUR
NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW TRACK BUT GOOD MIDLEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL STILL LEAD TO GOOD
FGEN ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT. AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE AMPLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. DEEP
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL BE DRAWN
NORTH WITH THIS WAVE...ALONG WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
WESTERN GULF/SOUTHERN PLAINS. PW VALUES STILL EXPECTED TO BE OVER 2
INCHES...RECORD TERRITORY FOR THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. THIS COUPLED
WITH GOOD FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. TWO POSSIBLE IMPACTS TO
DISCUSS...SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE ENTIRELY DEPENDENT ON DEGREE OF
DIABATIC BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING EARLY IN THE DAY. 00Z NAM STILL A
RELATIVE OUTLIER IN SUGGESTING SBCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 2000
J/KG...PERPLEXING GIVEN THE DEGREE OF MORNING CLOUD COVER SEEN IN RH
FIELDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS. STILL PREFER THE MORE SUBDUED GFS
INSTABILITY VALUES GIVEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT RH/CLOUD FORECASTS SEEN
IN ALL OF THE MODELS. THAT BEING SAID...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK WILL BE POSSIBLE IF WE MANAGE TO GET ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING
BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES. KINEMATICS ARE EXCELLENT WITH 850MB WINDS
AT OR ABOVE 50 KTS AND GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS WELL. PRECIP LOADING
IN VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE BRINGING STRONG
WIND CORE DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH EVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE A THREAT GIVEN LOW LCL`S AND STRONG
SHEAR. WHILE CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR MORNING CLOUDS TO CURTAIL
THE SEVERE RISK SOMEWHAT...CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS NOT HIGH
AND EVERYONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS CLOSELY
AS IT DOES NOT TAKE A LOT OF INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER IN THESE HIGH SHEAR SITUATIONS. SUBTLE BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK AND
A NONEVENT AND THAT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS POINT...GIVEN FURTHER DISPLACEMENT FROM
MORNING PRECIP AND CLOUD DEBRIS.

THE OTHER IMPACT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING. AGAIN...THIS WILL DEPEND SOMEWHAT ON DEGREE OF DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION BUT EXPECT SOME HEALTHY RAINFALL AMOUNTS REGARDLESS
OF CONVECTIVE COMPONENT. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL BE UNUSUALLY HIGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM
CLOUD LAYER OF AROUND 13 KFT...FAVORING EFFICIENT
COLLISION/COALESCENCE PROCESSES. MEAN FLOW VECTORS ARE ORIENTED A
BIT TOO ORTHOGONAL TO THE FRONT FOR A VERY LONG DURATION OF HEAVY
RAIN BUT SOME TRAINING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND PRECIP EFFICIENCY.
EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL SEE AROUND AN INCH WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER TOMORROW. A SECONDARY VORT MAX
WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY GENERATE
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. MAIN STORY WILL BE MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS. 850MB
TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR 0C BY THIS WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECTING A
HEALTHY CU/STRATOCU DECK ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO KEEP A LID ON
AFTERNOON TEMPS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S THROUGH SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE SOME LIGHT RAIN IS REACHING THE
GROUND ACROSS NORTHEAST IL THIS MORNING BUT CONDITIONS ARE VFR
WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS. TRENDS SHOWING A WEAKENING STATE AND
SOUTHERN SINK TO MOVEMENT SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP PCPN OUT OF KSBN
TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED.
EXPECT VFR THE REMAINDER OF PERIOD WITH ANY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
REMAINING JUST WEST OF KSBN THROUGH 12Z WED.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LASHLEY
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...LASHLEY


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

 805 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST
AND OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY AND CROSSES THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 11Z...SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS LOW PRESSURE NEAR BERTIE COUNTY NC
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS AND THE MOUTH OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A FLOOD
WARNING OVER MOST OF THE HAMPTON ROADS AREA HAS DIMINISHED
SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND 11Z. CURRENTLY ...RAIN WAS OVER THE LOWER
VIRGINIA EASTERN SHORE...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY. AREAS OF RAIN WERE
ALSO OVER PORTIONS OF HAMPTON ROADS. RADAR ANIMATION SHOWED MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY. FLOOD WATCH
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR HAMPTON ROADS AND THE LOWER VIRGINIA EASTERN
SHORE THROUGH 16Z.

POPS OVER THE CWA HAVE BEEN LOWERED BUT NOT AS MUCH AS CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS WOULD INDICATE. AREAS OF INTERSTATE 95 COULD STAY DRY BUT
STILL HAVE CHC POPS IN THIS AREA THROUGH MIDDAY. HRRR HAS REASONABLE
HANDLE AND THIS HAS ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CWA AFT 18Z.

AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE HAMPTON ROADS AREA...RAIN
WILL SPREAD INTO THE MD EASTERN SHORE.

OVERCAST CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA AND KNOCKED
TEMPERATURES A BIT FROM GUIDANCE. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
70S WELL INLAND TO THE UPR 70S AND NEAR 80 OVER SE VA AND NE NORTH
CAROLINA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE EAST...30-40 PERCENT POPS REMAIN NEAR
THE COAST AND OVER THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE THIS EVENING. LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. SLGT CHC POPS ON THE
LOWER EASTERN SHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SKY CLEARS SOMEWHAT AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID 80S OVER INLAND AREAS WEDNESDAY
(AROUND 80 NEAR THE COAST).

ON THU...A WEAKENING FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS BY LATE THURS. UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN...BECOMING
MORE WLY OVER THE LOCAL AREA. LEADING SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO LIFT
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THURS...LEAVING LITTLE APPRECIABLE
FORCING FOR THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...INCREASING MOISTURE AND
THETA-E ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO
CNTRL VA BY AFTN. KEPT EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS. WARM THURS AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES RISE. H85 TEMPS
ALSO REACH +18C. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 90 TO THE LWR 90S WITH MID TO
UPR 80S TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS STILL AGREE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AIR BY
THE WEEKEND.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PERFORM RELATIVELY WELL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING WHERE THE FRONT STALLS.
THIS IS RESULTING IN SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA THURS
NIGHT-FRI MORNING...AND OFFSHORE FRI AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY LOW END
CHANCE POPS AS THE FRONT DROPS THRU THURS NIGHT. HOWEVER...UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE AS BEST DYNAMICS/HEIGHT FALLS
REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. BEST POPS TRANSITION TO THE COAST FRI
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AND SLOWS. TRENDED HIGHS
DOWN A FEW DEGS FRI...BUT HIGHS STILL PROGGED IN THE LOW-MID 80S
AS BEST CAA ARRIVES FRI NIGHT. UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY PUSHES
OFFSHORE SAT IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW...ALLOWING COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SAT-SAT NIGHT. SFC HIGH
WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S (AROUND -1 STD DEV) WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY
NORTHEAST...MOVING OFF THE COAST VIRGINIA COAST TONIGHT. RAIN WILL
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. MOS
INDICATES IFR CIGS MAY REDEVELOPING AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THE LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AIR BEING
PULLED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHC FOR TSTMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
PCPN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT. PERIODS OF MVFR OR IFR WILL
BE PSBL THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS INDICATING E-NE WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THIS
MORNING. SEA 4 TO 6 FT SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
MORNING...AND IN THE 6-8FT RANGE NORTH OF PARRAMORE. GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ATTM IN TRACKING SFC LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS SLOWLY BECOMING
SSE BY AFTN AND THIS EVENING. WL ADD SOUTHERN WATERS TO SCA WITH
SEAS OUT NEAR 20NM LIKELY REMAINING IN SCA THROUGH THE DAY AS PER
THE LATEST NWPS. AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT, WINDS BRIEFLY
BACK TO THE NORTH OVER THE BAY AND MUCH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT, DIMINISHING LATE AND BECOMING NE AS SYSTEM EXITS
TO THE NORTHEAST.

SCA NOW IN PLACE FOR THE LOWER JAMES THROUGH MIDDAY...THE BAY
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SCA SLOWLY DROP OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS
EVENING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WILL NEED TO WATCH SEAS
LINGERING AROUND 5 FEET OVER NRN WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM.
IN THAT EVENT, SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FARTHER INTO WED NGT
PER LATEST WAVEWATCH. RESIDUAL MORE BENIGN MARINE CONDS EXPECTED
BY MID TO LATE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST,
SCOURING OUT LLVL WEDGE BY LATER WED AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES
FARTHER OFFSHORE. SUB-SCA SSW FLOW DEVELOPS THU/THU NGT AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT, WHICH DROPS ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY ON FRI.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI/FRI NGT. COOL/DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NE FLOW 15-25 KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT, RESULTING IN
BUILDING TIDAL ANOMALIES CONTINUING 1 TO 1.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE NEXT 2 HIGH TIDE CYCLES THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVYS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE NEXT TIDE CYCLE ACROSS HAMPTON ROADS AND TIDEWATER AREAS AND
COVERING THE NEXT 2 TIDE CYCLES OVER ATLANTIC COASTAL SECTIONS OF
THE MD EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ023.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ086-091-093>100.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ091-093>098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098.
     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-
     100.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ099.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ077-078-084>086.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...LSA
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...SAM/JAO
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 738 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WSW SPLIT FLOW
RUNNING ALONG THE CNDN BORDER. A SHRTWV WITHIN THE SRN BRANCH OVER
THE CONUS IS OVER NRN LK MI EARLY THIS MRNG AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR
SOME SPRINKLES THAT IMPACTED MAINLY THE SRN CWA SINCE YDAY AFTN. THE
ARRIVAL OF SOME SHRTWV RDGING/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING
BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE HAS ENDED THESE SPRINKLES...BUT AN AREA OF
SCT-BKN SC...RELATED TO H85 THETA E ADVCTN IN THE SW FLOW BTWN HI
PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A COLD FNT SLIDING SEWD THRU NW ONTARIO/NW
MN...IS MOVING INTO THE WRN CWA. THE COLD FNT TO THE NW IS ATTENDANT
TO A SHRTWV NEAR JAMES BAY THAT IS LIFTING ENEWD WITHIN THE STRONGER
NRN BRANCH FLOW DOMINATING CANADA. SOME SHOWERS/TS ALONG THIS BNDRY
EXTENDED AS FAR AS ABOUT THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER...WHERE THE 00Z INL
RAOB SHOWS AN INVRN ARND H75 THAT IS SUFFICIENT TO CAP ANY
CONVECTION. THIS INVRN IS EVEN SHARPER ON THE MPX RAOB...
STRENGTHENED BY THE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN THE WAKE OF SRN BRANCH
SHRTWV. LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM...THERE IS ANOTHER STRONGER SRN
BRANCH SHRTWV MOVING THRU NEVADA.

MAIN FCST CONCERN FOR TDAY IS WHETHER ANY SHOWERS/TS WL DVLP OVER
MAINLY WRN UPR MI AHEAD OF THE APRCHG COLD FNT FM THE NW. FOCUS FOR
TNGT WL SHIFT TO HOW QUICKLY LARGER AREA OF RA WL ARRIVE FM THE SW
IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING THRU THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

TODAY...WHILE NRN BRANCH SHRTWV NEAR JAMES BAY WL CONTINUE ENEWD
INTO NRN QUEBEC...ATTENDANT COLD FNT IS FCST TO DROP SEWD INTO WRN
UPR MI THIS AFTN BUT THEN SLOW DOWN AS THE H5 FLOW BACKS SW/MORE
PARALLEL WITH THE FNT IN ADVANCE OF ROCKIES SHRTWV MOVING OUT INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE THE SLOWING FNT MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME
SHOWERS/TS IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING...MODELS SHOW BULK OF
THE DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC REMAINING TO THE N OF THE CWA CLOSER TO
LOW HGTS IN ONTARIO. IN THE ABSENCE OF THIS STRONGER LARGER SCALE
FORCING...SUSPECT MID LVL INVRN SHOWN ON THE UPSTREAM 00Z INL/MPX
RAOBS WL PERSIST IN LINE WITH THE GFS FCST SDNGS SHOWING LINGERING
INVRN ARND H75-8 AND LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. SO WL
RETAIN GOING ONLY SCHC POPS OVER MAINLY THE W HALF FOR THE AFTN.
COMBINATION OF INCRSG H85 THETA E OVER THE FAR W TOWARD 00Z AND
ARRIVAL OF STRONGER FORCING IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV FM THE
PLAINS JUSTIFY INCRSG POPS OVER THE FAR W CLOSER TO THAT TIME AS GFS
FCST SDNG FOR IWD SHOWS WEAKENING INVRN TOWARD 00Z. AS FOR TEMPS...A
GOOD DEAL OF SC THAT WL FORM IN THE INCRSGLY MOIST S FLOW AHEAD OF
THE APRCHG FNT AND UNDER INVRN AS WELL AS FLOW OFF LK MI AS SFC
WINDS TEND TO BACK TOWARD THE SSE THRU THE DAY WL LIMIT THE RISE OF
THE MERCURY DESPITE WARM START TO THE DAY. TEMPS OVER THE W ARE
LIKELY TO FALL FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FNT THIS AFTN AND
ARRIVAL OF SHALLOW COOL AIR.

TNGT...SHRTWV IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WL MOVE NE...WITH FAIRLY DEEP
SFC LO ARND 996MB REACHING FAR NE IOWA TOWARD 12Z WED. ARRIVAL OF
SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND UPR DVGC IN ADVANCE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE AND OVER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E/PWAT AT LEAST NEAR
1.5 INCH WL BRING INCRSG POPS TO CATEGORICAL SW-NE...EXCEPT OVER THE
FAR E WHERE THE MORE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER
12Z WED. ALTHOUGH THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP FAVORS SOME HEAVY RA
ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF OVERNGT...THERE ARE A FEW LINGERING
QUESTION MARKS. THE FAVORED 00Z GFS MODEL INDICATES A BAND OF
SHARPER H85-7 FGEN WL SETUP ACRS CENTRAL WI OVERNGT...DISRUPTING
MSTR INFLOW INTO UPR MI. THE 00Z GFS GENERATES NO MORE THAN ABOUT
0.25-0.33 INCH OF RA THRU 12Z. SEVERAL OF THE HIER RES MODELS...
INCLUDING THE 00Z LOCAL WRF-ARW...GENERATE ONLY MINIMAL QPF OVER UPR
MI THRU 12Z WED. THE 00Z CNDN MODEL FOCUSES ITS HEAVIER PCPN TO THE
S OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THAT AXIS OF FGEN SHOWN BY THE GFS. BUT
SINCE THE 00Z NAM...WHICH SHOWS A FARTHER NW TRACK FOR THE SFC LO
AND STRONGER SLY FLOW TO BRING HIER PWAT INTO THE CWA...AND THE 00Z
ECMWF DO PRODUCE GENEROUS RA OVER MAINLY THE W HALF...MADE NO CHG TO
GOING FLOOD WATCH FOR THE 06Z-12Z TIME. OTRW...THE SLOW MOVING COLD
FNT IS FCST TO SLIP ONLY SLOWLY SE THRU THE NGT...SO THE WARMEST
OVERNGT LO TEMPS WL BE OVER THE SE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 544 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

WINDY AND WET THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...WITH COOL AIR LINGERING
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE COLD AIR...FROST OR
FREEZE CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. SEE THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE ONGOING FLOOD WATCH.

BY 12Z WEDNESDAY STEADY RAIN SHOULD ALREADY BE FALLING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...AS A TROUGH IS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AND DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS NE IA AND FAR SE MN NEARS.

WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE
SFC LOW SHIFTS ACROSS SE UPPER MI AND N LOWER MI. GIVEN THE TRACK OF
THE LOW...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TS WAS KEPT ALONG LAKE MI ON WEDNESDAY.
A FAVORABLE FETCH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ENHANCE N FLOW AND BRING
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE W HALF. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF STRONG WINDS IN THE HWO...WITH
SATURATED SOILS AND STRONG WINDS HITTING LEAFED OUT TREES HAVING A
BETTER CHANCE OF UPROOTING THEM.

THE STRONG WINDS WILL SLOWLY EXPAND OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES ACROSS N LAKE HURON AND EXITS INTO
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. WHILE THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY...OUR FORECAST FOR THIS PRODUCT WILL END
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S AND PLENTY OF RAIN...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED PEOPLE OUT IN THE WATER. LESS OF A SOCIAL
BROADCAST OF THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE LIKELY...AS HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

COOL 850MB TEMPS OF 2 TO -1C AND FAVORABLE ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS GOING INTO THURSDAY. THE INFLUX OF
COLD AIR WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...AS 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM AROUND 11C AT
DAYBREAK WEDNSDAY. VERY COLD AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW
COULD RESULT IN FROST OR FREEZE CONDITIONS NEAR THE WI BORDER LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CANADIAN HIGH SINKS ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL
PLAINS AND BUILDS A RIDGE ACROSS UPPER MI. LINGERING CLOUDS ON NW
FLOW SHOULD KEEP AREAS E OF A LINE FROM MARQUETTE TO ESCANABA FROM
FALLING TOO LOW. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH PW
VALUES WELL BELOW NORMAL WILL HELP TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MI INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

ALTHOUGH SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG COULD IMPACT SAW EARLY THIS MRNG
AND THERE WL BE SOME HIER BASED SC...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTN WITH RELATIVELY DRY NEAR SFC LYR.
BUT A COLD FNT IS FCST TO PASS IWD/CMX DURING THE AFTN...AND A WSHFT
TO THE NNE/ARRIVAL OF SOME SHALLOW COOL AIR OFF LK SUP COULD BRING
SOME MVFR CLDS INTO THOSE LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTN. THERE COULD BE
A -SHRA OR PERHAPS EVEN TS AT MAINLY IWD WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FNT
DURING PEAK HEATING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LO TO INCLUDE A SPECIFIC
MENTION ATTM. AS A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES NEWD AND THE MOIST LYR
DEEPENS...RA WL DVLP SW-NE AND CAUSE CONDITIONS AT IWD/CMX TO DROP
TO IFR BY LATE EVNG. SINCE THE FROPA WL OCCUR LATER AT SAW...THE
TRANSITION TO MVFR WL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER IN THE FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

THE TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS W LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DRIFT ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE NEARS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
LOW WILL BE OVER E IOWA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE TO PUSH
NE OVER E UPPER MI AND N LOWER MI LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
EXITING INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. N GALES TO AROUND 40KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR...BEFORE SLOWLY
EXPANDING TO CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER S ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN
THURSDAY WILL SINK ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE BUILDING
A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20KTS OR LESS.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

RAINFALL TOTALS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS UPPER MI
RANGE FROM JUST OVER 1.5IN TO NEARLY 3IN ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE ENHANCED LOCATIONS OF N CENTRAL
UPPER MI. AN AREAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS POSTED FOR MUCH OF W AND
CENTRAL UPPER MI. MUCH OF THE CWA IS IN THE DAY 2 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL OUTLOOK /SLIGHT RISK/ FOR DAY 2 /12Z WED-12Z THU/. THE
MORNING RIVER FCSTS WILL BE RAN WITH 48HR QPF VALUES...SO IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT REACTION IS EXPECTED. OUR LAST RAIN EVENT
DID NOT DO MUCH AT THE RIVER GAUGE LOCATIONS. RIVERS THAT ARE
RUNNING HIGHER /GENERALLY 1-2FT/ THAN THIS TIME LAST MONTH INCLUDE
THE SOUTH BRANCH OF THE ONTONAGON RIVER AT EWEN...THE FORD RIVER AT
HYDE...THE STURGEON RIVER AT NAHMA JUNCTION...AND THE MANISTIQUE
RIVER AT MANISTIQUE.

AT THIS POINT THE N CENTRAL RFC 3HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS HOVERING
BETWEEN 2-3.5IN...WITH 6HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS CLOSER TO 2.25 TO
OVER 4IN. OF COURSE IT/S VERY TERRAIN AND BASIN SPECIFIC. AS
PREVIOUSLY NOTED...MANY AREAS OF W AND CENTRAL UPPER MI ARE RUNNING
AROUND 2-4IN ABOVE THE 2 WEEK NORMAL PRECIP WISE DUE TO RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL. EXPECT THE TRADITIONAL URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT POSSIBILITY IN THE TYPICAL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS OF ESC IF
RAINFALL IS STEADY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
     MIZ001>006-009>013-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ251-267.

  GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ243>245-264>266.

  GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR LSZ162-240>242-263.

  GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ248>250.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF
HYDROLOGY...KF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

 637 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

Morning radar looks mostly clear across the forecast area, with the
exception of a complex of thunderstorms currently over far eastern
Iowa. This thunderstorm complex is likely in response to a shortwave
mid level trough moving through the mid level flow. Perhaps
augmenting the mid level lift is a fairly weak low level jet around
20 kts at 850 mb. 305 K Theta E surface also indicates a decent
element of isentropic lift associated with this low level jet.
Through the night the complex has been mostly stationary, however
short range convective models indicate that it`ll make a E/SE jaunt
and perhaps clip the far northeastern zones with a few isolated to
scattered thunderstorms for the morning hours. Given that morning
convection should be relegated to the far NE corner of the CWA, have
generally backed off on PoPs for the southern and western fringes of
the CWA, holding off the best chances for rain until the late
afternoon into evening.

The focus then shifts to the afternoon for a potential severe
weather event, mainly north of Interstate 70, and especially north
of Highway 36. Through the day a potent surface trough will deepen
in far western Kansas. As this SFC low deepens a fairly strong
surface pressure gradient will form across eastern Kansas and
western Missouri. This will cause a decent push of warm air to move
northward in the form of a warm front. Currently there is a fairly
strong temperature gradient across northern Kansas and SE Nebraska,
characterized by temperatures in the middle 70s and dew points in
the upper 60s to lower 70s south of the boundary and temperatures in
the lower 60s with much lower dew points north of the boundary.
According to latest HRRR trends and the latest 06z NAM it appears
the warm front today will set up perhaps just north of the KS/NE
border arcing W/SW to E/NE across eastern Nebraska, perhaps just
north of the MO/IA border. Along this boundary there will be
strongly backed surface and low level winds, contributing to strong
wind profile curvature with height. With the good surge of gulf
moisture into the area, along with cooling temperatures aloft, models
currently prog afternoon instability to range between 2000 and 3000
J/Kg of surface based CAPE. One big caveat regarding afternoon
destabilization will be whether mid level clouds and any associated
elevated convection will cause enough cloud cover to mitigate surface
heating. But for now will proceed with the expectation that surface
based convection will be possible later this afternoon and that there
will be ample instability to produce robust updrafts.

As mentioned earlier the warm frontal boundary is expected to set up
just to the north of the forecast area, but that will put the area
in the warm sector with strongly backed surface and low level winds.
Aloft, mid level flow will be SW around 50 kts, causing a good
veering-with-height wind profile. Convection associated with the
boundary and low level jet will have a much better chance to occur
north of HWY 36 across far NE Kansas and SE Nebraska. Helping the
convection form will be a shortwave trough with plenty of mid level
ascent, expected to move across eastern Nebraska. This trough could
cause numerous thunderstorms across eastern Nebraska and western
Iowa, perhaps causing the severe weather event to become less
discreet and more linear with numerous storm interactions. Since the
best lift will take place further north the area will see only a
modest influence from the wave. This will act to mitigate convective
development farther south, toward Interstate 70. There could still be
enough glancing energy to cause an isolated storm or two to form as
far south as I-70, but again the best chances for these storms will
be north of KC metro. Should a storm get going in the area, the
aforementioned instability, along with deep layer shear of around 40
to 50 kts will allow for supercell structures. As the afternoon turns
to evening the low level jet will crank up to around 30 to 40 kts,
which will cause low level wind profiles to veer with height, causing
elongated hodographs. The parameters will be adequate for storms to
be strong to severe, with supercell structures possible, introducing the
possibility for all hazards of severe weather including wind, hail,
and perhaps a tornado or two, mainly north of HWY 36 toward the
KS/NE/IA border area. As storms continue to merge through the night
and cold pools interact, expect one or more bowing segments as the
low level jet veer to the SW overnight. Of concern with any bowing
segments will be forecast low level SRH to be on the order of 300 to
400 J/kg of 0-1 SRH, bringing in the possibility for
mesovortex/enhanced wind along the leading edge of any bowing
segments. This will also bring one or more complexes of thunderstorms
across northern Missouri, perhaps as far south as I-70 through the
overnight hours. The main hazard with this overnight thunderstorm
activity will be heavy rain and perhaps an isolated flooding/flash
flooding threat to far northern Missouri.

Through all this, the synoptic cold front, associated with the
surface low will remain off to the west, and likely won`t make it
into the forecast area until late Tuesday night into early Wednesday
morning. Expect some convection along this front, especially if it
fails to clear the area by the time insolation occurs on Wednesday.
A few storms could be strong, mainly across central and eastern
Missouri, as the front moves through.

The first blast of cool air will settle into the area behind the
cold front, as temperatures through mid to late week will drop to
the 60s and 70s for highs and 40s to 50s for lows. Models then prog
another fairly potent trough to make its way through the area for
the Friday/Sat time period, but with low moisture content in the
atmosphere it will be tough to generate much instability, so any
rain associated with this late-week trough should be light and
non-convective in nature. The second blast of reinforcing cold air
will then push into the area for the weekend, bringing highs 50s and
60s, and lows into the 40s and 50s. Saturday morning, once the
surface high settles into the area behind the cold front,
temperatures across far northern Missouri could drop into the 30s.
For now, not anticipating any frost headlines, but will continue to
monitor, and should FCST temps go into the lower or middle 30s frost
headlines might be needed. By Sunday and Monday the surface high will
be east of the area and southerly return flow will cause a warm up
back toward seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 633 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible later this afternoon.
Timing and duration of these storms is a bit uncertain, but this
forecast package indicates the latest thinking regarding that timing.
Expect a period of thunderstorms to move through the terminals later
today, but thunderstorms probably won`t completely be a non-threat to
the terminals through the evening. While a 06z line indicates an end
to the vicinity showers it`s possible that lingering storm activity
will last off and on through the rest of the forecast period. Expect
a frontal passage shortly after the forecast period in this package.
More showers will be possible along that frontal passage.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

 612 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2014

A MCS has been going on across eastern IA and northwestern IL for a
good part of the overnight and the forward flank of it is
propagating slowly east-southeast.  Further south over our region,
southerly surface flow prevailed, and thanks to areas of clouds, are
keeping temps much warmer than where they were 24 hours ago, with
readings hovering near 70 in many locales.

Models not doing a very good job with handling the MCS to our north,
although the HRRR is about the most believable.  The main flow and
Corfidi vectors suggest this MCS will still mainly propagate E-SE
with the main body remaining to the north of our region, but this is
kicking off an outflow and with a weak lo level jet nosing into
northeast MO, cannot rule out some sunrise surprise in the way of
widely scattered TSRA.  The outflow dropping south may further
enable TSRA development into central IL heading deeper into the
morning and remain thru the afternoon, expanding westward into
northern MO.

As the heating of the day kicks in by midday, much of our region to
the west of STL will be in a weak CINH, very high moisture
environment and may be able to fire off isolated to scattered TSRA
during the afternoon.  Rain chances look less likely into southern
IL, depending on how the MCS to the north actually evolves.

Due to all of the dependencies on clouds and rain chances, it will
be hard to get a firm handle on temps today.  A MOS blend looks like
a reasonably good start, with above normal temps for many areas as
readings in the 80s are attained.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2014

Primary concern remains upcoming potential for heavy rain tonight
into Wednesday.  The longwave trof over the western CONUS will
continue to deepen and move east tonight.  The leading edge of the
trof should be out over the eastern Plains by 00Z which will force
lee-side cyclogenesis back over the Colorado/Kansas border.  The low
level jet ahead of the developing low level system system will
increase to 50-60kts resulting in impressive moisture transport from
the southeast.  GFS and NAM both show a tremendous amount of
moisture convergence over northern Missouri/southern Iowa on the
nose of the low level jet tonight.  The exact placement of the
heaviest rain is still in question with the GFS being further south
into our area, and the NAM being further north in Iowa.  A deep
warm-cloud layer and P-wats over 2.3 inches will certainly provide a
rich environment for heavy rain.  However, the SREF seems to agree
more with the NAM, as do the ARW and NMM WRF models.  Will therefore
hold off issuing any flooding headlines and let the day shift take
another look.

Guidance is in decent agreement in pushing the surface front through
the area Wednesday afternoon.  The low level jet ahead of the front
does diminish somewhat, but all models continue to show a 30-50kt
jet through much of the day with moisture convergence continuing
over the area.  Think there will be ongoing precip ahead of the
front, tho areal coverage is somewhat uncertain.  However, any
sunshine should allow for a rapid warm up in southwest flow and
18-20C temperatures at 850mb.  Therefore stuck pretty close to MOS
highs in spite of potential for a lot of cloud cover and rain
through the day.  Storms should form up into a line ahead of the
front in the afternoon and move south of the area by mid-late
evening.  Still think there is a decent chance for some of the
storms to be severe given the strong winds aloft and the possibility
that downdrafts could mix these winds to the surface.

Much cooler air will filter into the area and behind the front for
Thursday.  Temperatures will fall below normal, and are expected to
stay below normal through Monday.  Highs through the period will
mainly be in the mid 60s to around 70 with lows as low as the low to
mid 40s.  This will be 15-20 degrees below normal for
mid-September.  The only significant chance for precipitation beyond
Wednesday evening looks to be on Friday when another shortwave dives
southeast out of the northern Plains across the Midwest.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2014

VFR conditions are expected outside of TSRA along with southerly
surface winds thru the valid period. A period of TSRA should get
close to UIN this morning enough for VCTS. Elsewhere for the rest
of the day, chances look pretty sparse--enough for a mention in
the public forecast but not enough for a terminal point forecast.
The main show for rain gets going later this evening and will
mainly affect UIN, but to a lesser extent COU, and should hold off
sufficiently to the north and west of STL Metro to prevent a
mention in the forecast for now. A 45kt low level jet will get
going over a COU-UIN axis late tonight, but it also coincides with
decent coverage in TSRA in these areas and so any LLWS mention would
be redundant with shear implied in TSRA.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and southerly winds thru the valid period
outside of TSRA. While there will be a TSRA threat in the
afternoon, it looks too small to warrant a mention. The better
rain chances should hold off until Wednesday morning.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

 923 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

LET DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. EXPECT STORMS TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THE NEXT 6 HOURS.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA WHERE VISIBILITIES HAD DROPPED TO ONE QUARTER MILE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND EXTENT OF PRECIP WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM.

PRECIP RATHER SPARSE ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME DUE TO
LIMITED FORCING. A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AT 07Z AND A WARM FRONT FROM CENTRAL IOWA ACROSS NORTHWEST
KANSAS TO LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO. LATEST RAP AND HRRR
INDICATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 12Z AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 18Z AS
MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS AND 850MB FLOW INCREASES
AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. FORCING CONTINUES TO
INCREASE AFTER 18Z AND INTO THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES
WITH HIGHER POPS SPREADING INTO THE CWA AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND MOVES INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 06Z BUT SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS UPPER WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

COLDER AIR FOLLOWS BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME RECORD LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

COLD TEMPERATURES LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WARMER AIR COMING
BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

VERY BUSY AVIATION FORECAST TODAY WITH NUMEROUS CHALLENGES. DENSE
FOG WITH LIFR CONDITIONS HAD DEVELOPED AT KOFK...WHICH WILL
PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT 14-15Z. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES LATER TODAY...BEGINNING BY 20Z AT
KLNK...22Z AND KOMA AND 23Z AT KOFK. STORMS COULD BE QUITE STRONG
WITH VARIABLE WINDS UP TO 30 TO 45 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT THEN SWEEPS
INTO THE REGION 03-06Z...WHICH BRINGS WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST...WITH LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

 621 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA WHERE VISIBILITIES HAD DROPPED TO ONE QUARTER MILE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND EXTENT OF PRECIP WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM.

PRECIP RATHER SPARSE ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME DUE TO
LIMITED FORCING. A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AT 07Z AND A WARM FRONT FROM CENTRAL IOWA ACROSS NORTHWEST
KANSAS TO LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO. LATEST RAP AND HRRR
INDICATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 12Z AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 18Z AS
MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS AND 850MB FLOW INCREASES
AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. FORCING CONTINUES TO
INCREASE AFTER 18Z AND INTO THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES
WITH HIGHER POPS SPREADING INTO THE CWA AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND MOVES INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 06Z BUT SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS UPPER WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

COLDER AIR FOLLOWS BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME RECORD LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

COLD TEMPERATURES LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WARMER AIR COMING
BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

VERY BUSY AVIATION FORECAST TODAY WITH NUMEROUS CHALLENGES. DENSE
FOG WITH LIFR CONDITIONS HAD DEVELOPED AT KOFK...WHICH WILL
PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT 14-15Z. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES LATER TODAY...BEGINNING BY 20Z AT
KLNK...22Z AND KOMA AND 23Z AT KOFK. STORMS COULD BE QUITE STRONG
WITH VARIABLE WINDS UP TO 30 TO 45 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT THEN SWEEPS
INTO THE REGION 03-06Z...WHICH BRINGS WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST...WITH LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>033-042-043.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 1012 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LINGERING FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL FINALLY PUSH WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT...WITH DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
LATE WEEK...DRIFTING SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE HAS JUST MOVED OFF THE
NORTHERNMOST OUTER BANKS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO
JUST OFF OUR PORTION OF THE COAST. WINDS AT THE BEACHES ARE WEST TO
NORTHWEST AND VEER AROUND THE NORTH ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR. SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS BLANKETING ALL OF THE
CAROLINAS...AND HOW THE BEHAVIOR OF THESE CLOUDS WILL DETERMINE
VIRTUALLY EVERY FORECAST PARAMETER IN TODAY`S FORECAST.

12Z SOUNDINGS FROM MHX AND GSO WERE NOT TOO DISSIMILAR FROM 06Z
MODEL SOUNDINGS VALID AT 12Z. AT GREENSBORO CLOUDS EXTENDED UP TO
AROUND 3500 FT WITH SUBSTANTIAL DRYING BEGINNING AT 6200 FT. THIS
DRYING ALOFT IS EVEN DISCERNIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AT MHX THE
ENTIRE SOUNDING WAS MUCH MORE MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL
OVER 2 INCHES. SINCE THERE WILL BE NO SUBSTANTIAL ADVECTION OF DRY
AIR WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY ANY HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROBABLY JUST CREATE CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT
WILL FILL IN ANY HOLES THAT LET THE SUN THROUGH IN THE FIRST PLACE.
FOR THIS REASON MY SKY COVER FORECAST IS FOR CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE AROUND 80 ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA TO
THE LOWER 80S FROM DILLON...CONWAY TO MYRTLE BEACH. FARTHER INLAND
ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION IT REMAINS POSSIBLE HIGHS COULD REACH
83-84 BUT THAT`S GOING TO TAKE SEVERAL HOURS OF THIN SPOTS IN THE
CLOUD COVER TO ACHIEVE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR QUITE LOW THROUGH THE DAY. RADAR SHOWS
NO CURRENT ACTIVITY ON LAND AND THE AMOUNT OF HEATING EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD NOT BE ABLE TO PUT CONVECTIVE CLOUDS UP THROUGH A
CONVECTIVE CAP BETWEEN 6000-9000 FEET. THE HRRR MAY HAVE THE RIGHT
IDEA WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES FALLING FROM TOWERING CUMULUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW AND A DISSIPATING
SURFACE HIGH ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A DRY DAY WITH NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ON THURSDAY THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND A SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING OF THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BOOST THE AFTERNOON
WARMTH AS WELL SLIGHTLY MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
MOST PLACES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE SHOULD WARM INTO THE
LOW 90S. THE MORE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO DAYS WILL BE
THE AFTERNOON APPARENT TEMPERATURES.ON WEDNESDAY MOST PLACES WILL
TOP OUT AROUND 90 DEGREES BUT AS THE DEWPOINTS RISE THURSDAY THE
HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S. BOTH DAYS THIS EFFECT WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY TAPERED ALONG THE COAST. MODELS TRENDING A BIT FASTER
WITH MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT ESP THE GFS. WILL PUT
LOW POPS IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND MAY
TAKE A FULL 24 HOURS TO THEN BE ORIENTED RIGHT ALONG THE COAST LINE.
THIS SHOULD KEEP THINGS QUITE UNSETTLED FRIDAY AND PROBABLY SATURDAY
AS WELL. MODELS CANNOT SEEM TO DECIDE WHERE THE CORE OF THE COOL AIR
GOES HOWEVER. NORMALLY IN EARLY SEPTEMBER THIS ISN`T TOO BIG A DEAL
AS COOL FRONTS USUALLY JUST REPRESENT A DROP IN HUMIDITY THIS FAR
SOUTH. HOWEVER THIS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SOME CONSIDERABLY COOLER
AND DRIER AIR AND THE GFS IN PARTICULAR IS NOW HESITANT TO SHOVE IT
THIS FAR SOUTH. INSTEAD THE MODEL KEEPS THE SECONDARY FRONT...THE
MUCH COOLER AIR...OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WHILE THE LEADING AND
MUCH WEAKER FRONT MEANDERS AND WEAKENS NEAR THE COAST FOR THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. THE ADDED CLOUD COVER THAT THE FRONT WOULD YIELD
WOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN AND THERE WILL STILL BE AN AIRMASS CHANGE FROM
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TO BE SURE...BUT I`M NO LONGER CERTAIN WE`RE
IN FOR A `REFRESHING` AIRMASS THAT WE NORMALLY EXPERIENCE MUCH LATER
IN THE MONTH OR EVEN OCTOBER. A GLANCE AT THE NEW 00Z ECMWF WOULD
IMPLY THAT THE LATE PERIOD COOL DOWN WHILE STILL PRESENT...MAY NOT
BE VERY NOTEWORTHY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR TODAY. LIGHT SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT IN
GENERAL RAINFALL CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
ALTHOUGH TEMPO CIG IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR MAY OCCUR EARLIER...CIGS
WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR 14-16Z WITH VFR DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE W-NW...EXCEPT BECOMING S-SW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VRBL THIS EVENING AS SKIES
SCT. WITH SATURATED SOILS FOG APPEARS LIKELY WITH MVFR VSBYS
DEVELOPING BY 08Z ALL TERMINALS. LIFR APPEARS LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT
BY 09Z. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL HAVE TEMPO LIFR CIGS IFR VSBYS DUE
TO A LIGHT N WIND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT NEARS THE
CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OUT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ALONG
THE BEACHES. WIND SPEEDS ARE HIGHEST NORTH OF CAPE FEAR (UP TO 15
KNOTS) BUT ARE GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. LOW
PRESSURE IS JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERNMOST OUTER BANKS AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY. RADAR
SHOWS ONLY SOME SPRINKLES SOUTH OF GEORGETOWN WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS 40 MILES AND FARTHER OFFSHORE.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY THE FRONT SHOULD STALL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS WITH LIGHT GENERALLY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED. WHERE INLAND
AIR TEMPERATURES CAN REACH THE LOWER 80S OR BETTER (MAINLY SOUTH
CAROLINA) NEARSHORE WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BACK MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OR
SOUTHERLY WITH A VERY WEAK SEABREEZE FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...WIND AND SEAS BOTH MINIMAL ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER THE LANDMASS WEDNESDAY WASHES OUT AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. NE FLOW TO START THE DAY WILL GIVE TO WAY LIGHT AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW POSSIBLY EVEN DOMINATED BY MESOSCALE SEA
BREEZE AT LEAST NEAR THE SHORELINE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH ALSO STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT. NOT
LOOKING FOR SEAS TO INCREASE AS A RESULT OF THE NEW FLOW REGIME ON
ACCOUNT OF HOW WEAK WIND SPEEDS STAY PLUS THE FACT THAT NO
SIGNIFICANT SWELL ENERGY FOUND ANYWHERE OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY ALBEIT VERY SLOWLY. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE GRADIENT FLOW
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND NOT MUCH BEHIND IT EITHER. IT WILL STALL
RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE EARLY SATURDAY AND MAY EVEN DRIFT A BIT
INLAND AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THIS KEEPS A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE
FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS HARD-PRESSED TO EXCEED 10
KT. THERE MAY BE VACILLATIONS IN DIRECTION OF THE SRLY FLOW FROM SE
TO SW AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WITH SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS. WITH SUCH LIGHT WINDS AND NO SWELL ENERGY TO SPEAK OF
SEAS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL, CAPPED AT 2 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...WE DO EXPECT THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDES TO
BRING A PERIOD OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TO THE LOWER CAPE FEAR
RIVER AREA...PERHAPS EVEN INTO LATE WEEK AS THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
SLOWLY WANES. THIS MORNING...THE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON TIDE GAUGE IS
EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 6 FT. HIGH TIDE IS AT 1030 AM AND 11 PM.
THE BEACHES WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES...BUT
DEPARTURES AT HIGH TIDE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT AND NO
COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON THE OCEANFRONT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NCZ107.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 710 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING AND OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE STATE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...

AFTER A VERY WET DAY WITH NUMEROUS REPORTS OF FLOODING... A SLOW
IMPROVEMENT FROM SW TO NE IS EXPECTED TODAY/TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL NC.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CANCELLED WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE... HOWEVER THERE COULD STILL BE WATER ON ROADS IN
MANY SPOTS THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR.

LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS A SURFACE LOW BETWEEN GSB AND FAY...
TRACKING VERY SLOWLY NE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE NC/SC
COASTAL PLAIN. RAIN COVERAGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS DECREASED
MARKEDLY SINCE MID EVENING AS DEEP STRONG LIFT HAS WANED... WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF A POTENT MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER (NOW OVER ERN NC)
TO THE NE... AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET BASED
OVER NEW ENGLAND IS ALSO EXITING... IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE HIGH 2"+
PRECIP WATER. BUT LOW LEVEL MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PERSISTS AT 295-
300K OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA... AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SLOW
TO END FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE DAY... FOLLOWING THE LATEST HRRR
RUNS WHICH HAVE PERFORMED FAIRLY WELL IN THE LAST 24 HRS. BUFR
SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS/NAM SHOW THE LOW STRATUS DISSOLVING FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON... AND WHILE THE PATTERN SEEMS
GOOD... IT LOOKS A LITTLE FAST BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED CONTINUED
ADVECTION OF MOIST LOW LEVEL (SURFACE-925 MB) AIR FROM THE NE (SEEN
ON 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES) INTO CENTRAL NC. SO WILL RETAIN LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR PATCHY RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE NRN/ERN CWA THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH A SLOW EXIT THIS AFTERNOON... AND HAVE SLOWED THE
GRADUAL CLEARING BY A FEW HOURS AS WELL. THE WRN AND SRN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NC HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING DECENT SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON... WHILE THE LONGER-LIVED CLOUDS IN THE FAR NRN AND NE CWA
WILL SUPPRESS THE TEMP RISE TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS FROM 75 NEAR KERR
LAKE TO 82 IN THE SW INCLUDING WADESBORO. THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES
ITS SLOW TREK OVER NE NC AND OFF THE VA TIDEWATER THIS EVENING... AS
THE LOW LEVEL NNE FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAW IN MOISTURE FROM THE
DELMARVA AND SE VA. REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS BY LATE EVENING OVER
THE NE CWA APPEARS LIKELY... AND THE RAP HINTS AT MORE PATCHY
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT OVER THE NE CWA. GIVEN THE LIGHT DIFFLUENT NATURE
OF SURFACE WINDS TO REINFORCE STABILITY IN THE LOWEST 50-100 MB...
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. WILL KEEP AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT... BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE FAR NORTH
AND NORTHEAST. LOWS 63-67. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...

EXPECT QUIET WEATHER WED/WED NIGHT. THE PARENT HIGH NE OF NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA... LEAVING JUST A
WEAK RESIDUAL SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN NC. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
WILL SLOWLY RISE AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OVER THE NW
ATLANTIC... AND AHEAD OF TROUGHING OVER THE NW/NCNTRL CONUS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY/STABLE MID LEVELS... BUT SCATTERED TO
BROKEN FLAT DIURNAL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON... YIELDING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THICKNESSES RECOVER AND
WITH DAYTIME HEATING... WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS... 83-87. LOWS 65-69. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...

UNSETTLED PERIOD EXPECTED FOR THE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED RANGE
FEATURES AN ELONGATED WEAK RIDGE ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH A DEVELOPING LONG WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THAT DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO RIDGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A 65+
KT JET AT 500 HPA MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
ON THURSDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. NWP GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF
THE FRONT WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH ALL OF NC AND
SETTLING NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF KCHS AT 12Z SAT WHILE THE ECMWF
STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A SUBSEQUENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
SATURDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO PASS ALONG A
SIMILAR COURSE LATE SUNDAY AND TUESDAY. GUIDANCE FROM BOTH THE GFS
OR EC KEEPS THE FRONT ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE LARGER SCALE NWP
GUIDANCE HAS TENDED TO KEEP THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTH OF OUR REGION
WHICH WOULD TEND TO FAVOR A SURFACE FRONT THAT IS LESS LIKELY TO
PUSH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST DISCUSSION FROM
WPC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LESS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.

THE RESULT IS A PATTERN THAT WOULD SUPPORT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD BUT
ONE IN WHICH CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST DETAILS...ESPECIALLY LATE IN
LONG TERM IS LOWER THAN TYPICAL. FOR NOW WILL ADVERTISE AN INCREASE
IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE EVENTUAL
FRONTAL POSITION WILL DETERMINE THE DISTRIBUTION OF POPS AND
TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH A DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BECOMING BELOW
AVERAGE BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT IN GENERAL THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. -BLAES
&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 710 AM TUESDAY...

IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH NOON. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THEN VFR IS EXPECTED AT INT/GSO
FROM 15Z-18Z... AT RDU/FAY 17Z-20Z... AND AT RWI 19Z-22Z. MVFR-IFR
CIGS MAY RETURN AT RDU/RWI AFTER 04Z TONIGHT.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR GSB WILL CONTINUE
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NE THIS MORNING... TRACKING ALONG A FRONTAL
ZONE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE N AND NE
OVER CENTRAL NC HAVE KEPT A FLOW OF MOIST LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL LINGER
OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS IMPACTING RDU/RWI THROUGH SUNRISE. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A SLOW TAPERING OFF OF THIS RAIN/DRIZZLE FROM SW TO
NE THROUGH LATE MORNING / EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH VSBYS REBOUNDING
TO VFR ALSO FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION STARTING THIS EVENING... RESULTING IN
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT... AND WITH THESE LIGHT WINDS AND A WET
GROUND... REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR/LIFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT... PRIMARILY AT RDU/RWI BUT POTENTIALLY AT GSO/INT/FAY AS
WELL... BEGINNING NEAR OR SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z EARLY WED MORNING... SUB-VFR CIGS SHOULD HOLD
MAINLY AT RDU/RWI UNTIL AROUND 13Z-14Z... THEN THESE CLOUDS WILL MIX
OUT WITH HEATING... AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
AFTER 16Z WED... LASTING THROUGH THU NIGHT. MVFR-IFR STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
FRI THROUGH SAT AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 653 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LINGERING FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL FINALLY PUSH WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY ARRIVE TODAY...WITH
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE LATE WEEK...DRIFTING SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST OFFSHORE NEAR
DAYBREAK...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST
THROUGH THE DAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT NECESSITATES A VERY
SMALL MENTION OF A SHOWER TODAY...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE UP ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND AS THE LAST IN THE SERIES MOVES TO
OUR NORTHEAST...THE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY GET KICKED TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST TONIGHT.

THE CORRIDOR OF DEEPEST MOISTURE AND HEAVIEST RAIN HAS SHIFTED OFF
THE COAST AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELLED THE FLOOD
WATCH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE REALLY DRY AIR ACROSS THE
UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING...
STRUGGLING TO PUSH EAST. THE COLUMN WILL BEGIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY
DRY...FIRST INLAND WHERE A DEEPENING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
TAKE HOLD AND THEN ALONG THE COAST. WE WILL SEE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DROP FROM NEAR 2 INCHES THIS MORNING TO LESS THAN AN INCH AND
A HALF TONIGHT WITH THE MID LEVELS EXPERIENCING THE BIGGEST PUNCH OF
DRY AIR. THIS SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW MORE LATE SUMMER SUNSHINE TO VERY
SLOWLY DEVELOP. HOWEVER...IT WILL TAKE A GOOD PART OF THE DAY AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO
PARTIAL SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH
THICK CLOUDS LIKELY LINGERING ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.

LINGERING CLOUDS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS TODAY. WHERE SOME
SUNSHINE IS ABLE TO DEVELOP LONGEST...WE EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE
MID 80S. CURRENTLY...THIS SEEMS MOST PROBABLE ACROSS THE PEE DEE
REGION. OTHERWISE...HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER 80S WITH
PERHAPS ONLY 80 FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THE
TREND TOWARD LESS CLOUD COVER WILL ACCELERATE ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIST BEING REMOVED...BUT THE
TREND WILL BE FOR DEWPOINTS TO GRADUALLY LOWER. WILL FORECAST LOWS
IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S WITH LOWER 70S HOLDING ON AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW AND A DISSIPATING
SURFACE HIGH ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A DRY DAY WITH NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ON THURSDAY THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND A SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING OF THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BOOST THE AFTERNOON
WARMTH AS WELL SLIGHTLY MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
MOST PLACES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE SHOULD WARM INTO THE
LOW 90S. THE MORE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO DAYS WILL BE
THE AFTERNOON APPARENT TEMPERATURES.ON WEDNESDAY MOST PLACES WILL
TOP OUT AROUND 90 DEGREES BUT AS THE DEWPOINTS RISE THURSDAY THE
HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S. BOTH DAYS THIS EFFECT WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY TAPERED ALONG THE COAST. MODELS TRENDING A BIT FASTER
WITH MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT ESP THE GFS. WILL PUT
LOW POPS IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND MAY
TAKE A FULL 24 HOURS TO THEN BE ORIENTED RIGHT ALONG THE COAST LINE.
THIS SHOULD KEEP THINGS QUITE UNSETTLED FRIDAY AND PROBABLY SATURDAY
AS WELL. MODELS CANNOT SEEM TO DECIDE WHERE THE CORE OF THE COOL AIR
GOES HOWEVER. NORMALLY IN EARLY SEPTEMBER THIS ISN`T TOO BIG A DEAL
AS COOL FRONTS USUALLY JUST REPRESENT A DROP IN HUMIDITY THIS FAR
SOUTH. HOWEVER THIS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SOME CONSIDERABLY COOLER
AND DRIER AIR AND THE GFS IN PARTICULAR IS NOW HESITANT TO SHOVE IT
THIS FAR SOUTH. INSTEAD THE MODEL KEEPS THE SECONDARY FRONT...THE
MUCH COOLER AIR...OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WHILE THE LEADING AND
MUCH WEAKER FRONT MEANDERS AND WEAKENS NEAR THE COAST FOR THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. THE ADDED CLOUD COVER THAT THE FRONT WOULD YIELD
WOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN AND THERE WILL STILL BE AN AIRMASS CHANGE FROM
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TO BE SURE...BUT I`M NO LONGER CERTAIN WE`RE
IN FOR A `REFRESHING` AIRMASS THAT WE NORMALLY EXPERIENCE MUCH LATER
IN THE MONTH OR EVEN OCTOBER. A GLANCE AT THE NEW 00Z ECMWF WOULD
IMPLY THAT THE LATE PERIOD COOLDOWN WHILE STILL PRESENT...MAY NOT BE
VERY NOTEWORTHY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS TRANSITIONED OFFSHORE...AND THE
LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THE COASTAL SITES WILL SEE MINIMAL IF ANY
PCPN IMPACTS AFTER 06Z. EXPECT MVFR/IFR STRATUS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT
AS COOLER AIR WRAPS AROUND LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A NEAR
STATIONARY FRONT. BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND SREF PROBABILITIES...
THE BEST CHANCES FOR IFR CIGS WILL BE INLAND AT KLBT/KFLO. THE
COASTAL TERMINALS MAY ALSO SEE AT LEAST TEMPO IFR CIGS. LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS INLAND WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY.
ALONG THE COAST...WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BECOME VRBL AS THE FRONT
WAVERS NEAR THE AREA. MVFR STRATOCU SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING. BUT FCST SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT A DRYING TREND BY THE AFTN
HOURS...SO EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FROM SW TO NE AFTER
MIDDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT NEARS THE
CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...A FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY TODAY
AND THEN FINALLY MOVE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS...UP TO 10 TO 15 KT THIS
MORNING FOR THE NORTHERNMOST WATERS...OTHERWISE 10 KT OR LESS
THROUGHOUT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE DIRECTION WILL PRIMARILY BE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST SOUTHWEST TODAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST
AND NORTH WITH A CLEAR FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST
THIS MORNING...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT...SUBSIDING TO 3 FT OR LESS THIS
AFTERNOON AND 2 FT OR LESS TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...WIND AND SEAS BOTH MINIMAL ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER THE LANDMASS WEDNESDAY WASHES OUT AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. NE FLOW TO START THE DAY WILL GIVE TO WAY LIGHT AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW POSSIBLY EVEN DOMINATED BY MESOSCALE SEA
BREEZE AT LEAST NEAR THE SHORELINE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH ALSO STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT. NOT
LOOKING FOR SEAS TO INCREASE AS A RESULT OF THE NEW FLOW REGIME ON
ACCOUNT OF HOW WEAK WIND SPEEDS STAY PLUS THE FACT THAT NO
SIGNIFICANT SWELL ENERGY FOUND ANYWHERE OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY ALBEIT VERY SLOWLY. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE GRADIENT FLOW
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND NOT MUCH BEHIND IT EITHER. IT WILL STALL
RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE EARLY SATURDAY AND MAY EVEN DRIFT A BIT
INLAND AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THIS KEEPS A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE
FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS HARD-PRESSED TO EXCEED 10
KT. THERE MAY BE VACILLATIONS IN DIRECTION OF THE SRLY FLOW FROM SE
TO SW AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WITH SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS. WITH SUCH LIGHT WINDS AND NO SWELL ENERGY TO SPEAK OF
SEAS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL, CAPPED AT 2 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...WE DO EXPECT THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDES TO
BRING A PERIOD OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TO THE LOWER CAPE FEAR
RIVER AREA...PERHAPS EVEN INTO LATE WEEK AS THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
SLOWLY WANES. THIS MORNING...THE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON TIDE GAUGE IS
EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 6 FT. HIGH TIDE IS AT 1030 AM AND 11 PM.
THE BEACHES WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES...BUT
DEPARTURES AT HIGH TIDE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT AND NO
COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON THE OCEANFRONT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ107.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR/RJD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 957 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM WORDING THIS MORNING
AS SOME ACTIVITY IN THE AREA HAS PRODUCED A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
TWO IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. MAINLY A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT. THICK CLOUD
COVER COMBINED WITH TURBULENT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT
TEMPERATURES FROM COOLING MUCH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...NEAR-SURFACE
COLD AIR ADVECTION COULD OVERCOME THE CLOUDS/WINDS AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...MAINLY OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA PROXIMATE TO THE CENTER OF COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS
CENTERED OVER ALBERTA. SHOULD BE ABLE TO DECIDE ON WHETHER FROST
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT AFTER THE LATEST MODEL SUITE
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...AND RECENTLY OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
LATEST 10 UTC RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME SOME SLIGHT
ELEVATED CAPE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THUS WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES TODAY COMPARED TO MONDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX AND
AREAS OF FROST LATE TONIGHT WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL.

CURRENTLY...ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH CAA
STRATUS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA. LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
BLACK HILLS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH OVERRUNNING FLOW
TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG TO SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES THROUGH 12Z.

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN MOST LOCATIONS.
WILL SEE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
AS MID LEVEL ENERGY INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS ARE
ALSO FAVORING THE NORTHWEST NEAR UPPER JET INDUCED FORCING.

WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF SNOW NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WHEN CAA BRINGS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A CHANGE IN
PRECIPITATION PHASE. SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY RAIN.

LINGERING CLOUD COVER LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WHILE I KEPT FROST IN THE FORECAST WEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL...WILL HOLD ON ISSUING ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE AND LET THE DAY SHIFT DIGEST HOPEFULLY NEWER AND BETTER
MODEL DATA. IT DOES APPEAR THE NORTH CENTRAL HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL
TO CLEAR LATER TONIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE FROST/FREEZE
POSSIBILITIES...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TYPES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THEN FROST/FREEZE POSSIBILITIES AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN
THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE
SOUTHEAST CWA...WHILE THE FORCING AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
KEPT A MENTION OF A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WEDNESDAY
MORNING OVER THE NORTHWEST...WITH AREAS OF FROST IN THE WEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS THE DEEPEST WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND EVEN DEVELOPS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THURSDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION THAN
THE REMAINING DETERMINISTIC MODELS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. MOST MODELS KEEP THE CWA DRY EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE FAR
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE UTILIZED A BLEND HERE...KEEPING AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AND
CENTRAL. BUT KEEPING ONLY CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER BIG PROBLEM WILL BE
WHERE TO MENTION FROST. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...THERE SHOULD BE
MUCH MORE CLOUD COVER...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST.
HOWEVER...THE ALTERNATIVE SOLUTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE
WIDESPREAD FROST. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FROST
HIGHLIGHTS THIS MORNING BUT WILL CONTINUE THE SPS ISSUED PREVIOUSLY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IS SHAPING UP TO BE ANOTHER COLD
MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE WEST AND NORTH. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE FREEZE HEADLINES...BUT WOULD NOT ISSUE ANYTHING THIS FAR
OUT. THUS WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF FROST IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST
WITH HAZARDS MENTIONED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BEYOND FRIDAY...IT LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE FIRST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

MVFR-IFR STRATUS AT ALL TERMINALS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING. MODELS DO HINT AT CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR-LOW VFR FROM THE
MID MORNING HOURS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...16-20Z. A FEW POCKETS
OF LIFR NORTHWEST AND SOUTH...POSSIBLY IMPACTING KISN-KBIS AND
ESPECIALLY KDIK NOW THROUGH 15-17Z. INSTABILITY ALOFT HAS RESULTED
IN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS MORNING...BUT TOO SPARSE TO ADD
A VCTS TO ANY SINGLE AERODROME AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 639 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...AND RECENTLY OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
LATEST 10 UTC RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME SOME SLIGHT
ELEVATED CAPE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THUS WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES TODAY COMPARED TO MONDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX AND
AREAS OF FROST LATE TONIGHT WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL.

CURRENTLY...ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH CAA
STRATUS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA. LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
BLACK HILLS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH OVERRUNNING FLOW
TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG TO SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES THROUGH 12Z.

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN MOST LOCATIONS.
WILL SEE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
AS MID LEVEL ENERGY INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS ARE
ALSO FAVORING THE NORTHWEST NEAR UPPER JET INDUCED FORCING.

WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF SNOW NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WHEN CAA BRINGS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A CHANGE IN
PRECIPITATION PHASE. SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY RAIN.

LINGERING CLOUD COVER LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WHILE I KEPT FROST IN THE FORECAST WEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL...WILL HOLD ON ISSUING ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE AND LET THE DAY SHIFT DIGEST HOPEFULLY NEWER AND BETTER
MODEL DATA. IT DOES APPEAR THE NORTH CENTRAL HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL
TO CLEAR LATER TONIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE FROST/FREEZE
POSSIBILITIES...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TYPES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THEN FROST/FREEZE POSSIBILITIES AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN
THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE
SOUTHEAST CWA...WHILE THE FORCING AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
KEPT A MENTION OF A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WEDNESDAY
MORNING OVER THE NORTHWEST...WITH AREAS OF FROST IN THE WEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS THE DEEPEST WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND EVEN DEVELOPS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THURSDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION THAN
THE REMAINING DETERMINISTIC MODELS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. MOST MODELS KEEP THE CWA DRY EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE FAR
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE UTILIZED A BLEND HERE...KEEPING AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AND
CENTRAL. BUT KEEPING ONLY CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER BIG PROBLEM WILL BE
WHERE TO MENTION FROST. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...THERE SHOULD BE
MUCH MORE CLOUD COVER...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST.
HOWEVER...THE ALTERNATIVE SOLUTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE
WIDESPREAD FROST. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FROST
HIGHLIGHTS THIS MORNING BUT WILL CONTINUE THE SPS ISSUED PREVIOUSLY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IS SHAPING UP TO BE ANOTHER COLD
MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE WEST AND NORTH. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE FREEZE HEADLINES...BUT WOULD NOT ISSUE ANYTHING THIS FAR
OUT. THUS WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF FROST IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST
WITH HAZARDS MENTIONED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BEYOND FRIDAY...IT LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE FIRST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

MVFR-IFR STRATUS AT ALL TERMINALS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING. MODELS DO HINT AT CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR-LOW VFR FROM THE
MID MORNING HOURS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...16-20Z. A FEW POCKETS
OF LIFR NORTHWEST AND SOUTH...POSSIBLY IMPACTING KISN-KBIS AND
ESPECIALLY KDIK NOW THROUGH 15-17Z. INSTABILITY ALOFT HAS RESULTED
IN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS MORNING...BUT TOO SPARSE TO ADD
A VCTS TO ANY SINGLE AERODROME AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

 935 AM MST TUE SEP 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED TO MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF
TUCSON. INCREASING MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND WILL THEN PROVIDE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT THIS TIME...WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOWER
AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SE AZ. DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
VALID 16Z WERE IN THE 60S F...AND THESE TEMPS WERE NEARLY IDENTICAL
TO 24 HOURS AGO. 09/12Z KTWC SOUNDING PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.28
INCHES WAS 0.75 INCH LOWER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. THIS SOUNDING WAS
NEARLY SATURATED IN THE SURFACE-750 MB LAYER AND WAS MUCH DRIER
ABOVE 700 MB VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. 09/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM SRN IDAHO SWWD INTO SRN
CALIFORNIA WITH NORTH-TO-SOUTH RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
PLAINS. LIGHT SWLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED OVER SE AZ.

09/12Z NAM/GFS...09/12Z UNIV OF AZ WRF-NAM AND 09/12Z RUC HRRR WERE
NEARLY IDENTICAL WITH DEPICTING PRECIP ECHOES AND ANY QPF/S OF
SIGNIFICANCE TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF THIS FORECAST AREA THRU TONIGHT.
THESE SOLUTIONS SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLY DRIER REGIME
ALOFT. THE INHERITED OFFICIAL FORECAST DEPICTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/
TSTMS THRU THIS EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND ISOLATED COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM TUCSON EWD.
WILL LIKELY REDUCE POPS GENERALLY ABOUT 5-10 PERCENT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING BASED ON THE VARIOUS 09/12Z NWP SOLUTIONS. ANY
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS NERN
SECTIONS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL GENERALLY BE 3-10 DEGS F WARMER VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED MON.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 10/18Z.
DECREASING MOISTURE WILL CONFINE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA
TO LOCALES MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 5-9K FT AGL AND SURFACE
WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED
TO MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL THEN
PROVIDE ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS
WEEKEND. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THROUGH
LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
EAST. BY LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL
RETURN FOR A LOW GRADE MONSOON POP FORECAST WITH BASICALLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR DESERTS/VALLEYS AND SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM PROGGED TO
BE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE WEST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA BY LATE MONDAY. AT THE LEAST IT COULD SPEW SOME MOISTURE
OUR WAY...SO TIME WILL TELL.

HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 4 TO 6 DEGS BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AND THE WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT FRIDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LOW TEMPERATURES 1 TO 2 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS...THEN 4 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THEREAFTER.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOLLERE





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 339 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW PRODUCED BY THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF HIGH PRESSURE
EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS BOTH SYSTEMS MOVE
FURTHER OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT, THEN STALL TO OUR SOUTH WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY. THE STALLED BOUNDARY COULD WORK ITS WAY BACK
NORTH SATURDAY, THEN OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS
THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. EXPECT A RATHER CLOUDY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION OVERALL
WHICH MAY KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60`S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE OBSERVED NW OF PHL. STAYED CLOSE TO
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND WILL MOVE FROM
EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE, BASICALLY FROM PHL TO THE SE. THE RAP SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDTIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE CLOSE TO THE
COAST TONIGHT AND A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POP HAS BEEN LEFT IN THE
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LIGHT QPF UNDER 1/10TH INCH IS
EXPECTED, WITH RFC FORECAST QPF GUIDANCE USED OVERNIGHT AND THE
EARLY EVENING QPF FORECAST BASED MORE ON THE SREF. CONTINUED
NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS EARLY AROUND 20 MPH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFFSHORE ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY CLEAR BY THE END OF
THE DAY AND ANY REMAINING POPS ARE BEFORE NOON ALONG THE SHORE. WINDS
WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM,
GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH. WITH THE CLOUDCOVER HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE
HELD DOWN A BIT, SO DID NOT GO THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE. FORECASTED
TEMPERATURES TREND MORE TOWARD THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE, RIGHT AROUND
80 FOR PHL AND 70`S FOR MOST.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE LATEST GFS RUN INDICATES THIS NEXT
COLD FRONT MIGHT ENTER OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...PASSING THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE REACHING THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS LATEST RUN
ALSO INDICATES THE FRONT MIGHT STALL A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR
AREA COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS WHICH COULD TRANSLATE INTO A MOSTLY
PRECIPITATION-FREE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS OPTIMISTIC AND
KEEPS THE FRONT CLOSER TO OUR AREA, ALONG WITH A PROLONGED THREAT OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE WEEKEND. IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS...AFTERNOON POPS ON THURSDAY ARE HIGHEST IN THE PA ZONES,
WHERE TIMING OF FROPA WOULD COINCIDE MORE FAVORABLY WITH PEAK
HEATING HOURS. THERE IS SOME DEGREE OF A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
IN THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE THREAT OF MAY BE MORE LOCALIZED THAN
WIDESPREAD. THEN POPS BECOME PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER FROM WEST TO EAST
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A BASICALLY RAIN FREE PERIOD IS EXPECTED
LATER FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, BUT SHOWERS COULD RETURN ONCE
AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY DEPENDING ON WHERE THE STALLED
FRONT ACTUALLY SETS UP SHOP. POPS THAT WERE ALREADY INTRODUCED INTO
THE GRIDS WERE BASICALLY KEPT IN THIS FCST CYCLE UNTIL MODEL
INFORMATION BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED UNTIL THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
AFTER THAT.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OUR REGION HAS BEEN GRAZED BY SOME CLOUDS FROM A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TODAY TO OUR SOUTHEAST. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN VFR FOR THE MOST
PART WITH SOME LOCAL MVFR RESTRICTIONS. TEMPO GROUPS ARE INCLUDED
IN THE 18Z TAFS FOR PLACES THAT HAVE SEEN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO
MVFR. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE FROM 10-15
KNOTS TODAY, HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

OVERNIGHT CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO LOWER TO MVFR AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SOME DATA HINTS AT CEILINGS LOWERING TO NEAR IFR LEVELS TOWARD SUNRISE.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE FOR IFR IS LOW, LEFT OUT OF TAFS ATTM.
CLOUDS SHOULD RAISE AND BREAK UP WEDNESDAY WITH A NORTHEAST WIND
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR IN THE EVE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHRA AND TSRA LIKELY IN THE AFTN AT
RDG/ABE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY HOLD OFF FARTHER EAST UNTIL THE EVE
WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU. FROPA WILL BE MARKED BY WIND SHIFT
FROM S TO NW.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING WELL OVER FIVE FEET ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
WITH THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW SEAS WILL LIKELY BE OVER FIVE FEET
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA CRITERIA GUSTS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ON THE OCEAN WATERS. FOR DELAWARE
BAY, WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN AT OR UNDER 20 KNOTS AND WITH LOWER
SEAS ONGOING. WE`LL ALLOW THE SCA TO EXPIRE AT 6PM ON THE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND
WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TO BELOW SCA LEVELS BY THE AFTN. HOWEVER,
THE SCA MAY STILL BE NEEDED AS SEAS WILL TAKE TIME TO SUBSIDE. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WAVES OF 4-5 FT FOR THIS PERIOD.

THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONT BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT. STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DURING THE EVE. PRESSURE SURGE IN WAKE OF FROPA MAY
PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF NW WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR SCA THRESHOLD
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY....NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A COASTAL LOW MEANDERING JUST OFFSHORE AND ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUING, THE THREAT OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

MARGINAL MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OCCURRED ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE AND INTO DELAWARE BAY WITH THE TUESDAY MORNING
HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SIMILAR OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE AS
THE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS. GOING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MIDDAY,
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST LOOKS TO TIGHTEN SOMEWHAT, AND
THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE NORTHEASTERLY. WE
THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THROUGH
THE WEDNESDAY MORNING TO MIDDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND THIS EVE WITH
BREEZY NE FLOW AND A NEAR FULL MOON.

THE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS ON WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT
LEAST MODERATE.
&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
     020-022>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ016-021.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ003-004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...GAINES/NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GAINES/NIERENBERG/MIKETTA
MARINE...GAINES/NIERENBERG/MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...O`HARA







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 118 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY BEFORE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR
SOUTH WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY.
THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION
SATURDAY BEFORE THE FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE UP INTO THE
WATERS OFF TIDEWATER VA LATER TODAY. IT APPEARS FROM THE LATEST
MODELS THAT ONLY SRN- MOST NJ AND THE DELMARVA WILL BE THE ONLY
AREAS THAT WILL GET ANY PCPN FROM THIS SYSTEM. POPS HAVE BEEN
SCALED BACK ONLY INDICATING A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POP FROM PHL
EAST WITH THE 12:30 PM UPDATE. THE HRRR WAS OVERDONE WITH REALITY
THIS MORNING ON THE POPS WITH THE RAP HAVING A BETTER HANDLE ON
SHORT TERM CONDITIONS. CLOUDS AND A MOIST E/NE FLOW WILL BE ACROSS
MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA. WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE GFS MODEL WITH
THIS FCST...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND 12Z EC ARE ALL REASONABLY CLOSE
WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK AND EFFECTS WITH THE LOW. HIGHS
TODAY...MOSTLY LOW/MID 70S WITH A FEW UPPER 60S OVER THE SRN
POCONOS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES WERE MADE WITH BOTH
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AND IT WILL BE WELL E OF DEL BY 12Z
WED. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MOSTLY THE SRN COASTAL AREAS. E/NE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A COOL/DAMPNESS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS TONIGHT...LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE RANGING TO THE LOW/MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF H5
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS MID-LVL TROUGH AND
IN LEFT-EXIT REGION OF UPPER-LVL JET STREAK WILL BE PROGRESSING
DOWNSTREAM OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. THE COASTAL LOW IS
FORECAST TO MEANDER OFF THE DELMARVA COAST DURING THIS TIME.
ENHANCED WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WOULD MOST
LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE COASTAL LOW. RAIN
MAY LINGER NEAR THE DE AND SOUTHERN NJ COAST DURING THE MORNING. A
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE COASTAL LOW
DRIFTING FARTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE UPPER DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE.
FAVORED THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY AS MARINE
STRATOCU MAY BE STUBBORN TO ERODE UNDER THE PERSISTENCE OF ONSHORE
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT
FARTHER OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRATUS AND/OR FOG DEVELOPMENT (PARTICULARLY AT
LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST) WITH RESIDUAL MARINE AIR OVERHEAD.
FARTHER WEST INTO PA, LOW-LEVEL WINDS DO BEGIN TO VEER OUT OF THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST.

AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST STATES ON THURSDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS ABOUT 6 HOURS
FASTER WITH THE FROPA THAN THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF/CMC AND GEFS MEAN. A
SLOWER SOLUTION WOULD BE FAVORED IN THIS SETUP WITH THE DEEPENING
CYCLONE EXPECTED TO CUT WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS QUEBEC.
AFTERNOON POPS HIGHEST IN THE PA ZONES, WHERE TIMING OF FROPA WOULD
COINCIDE MORE FAVORABLY WITH PEAK HEATING HOURS. INTERESTINGLY, BOTH
THE 00Z NAM/GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT WITH PWATS WITHIN THE WELL-DEFINED ATMOSPHERIC RIVER NEAR +3SD
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME DEGREE
OF A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE THREAT OF
MAY BE MORE LOCALIZED ACROSS OUR AREA DUE TO A LACK OF SYNOPTIC LIFT
NOTED IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH ON FRIDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLOSE
OUT THE WORK WEEK.

A NORTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK THRU THE
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WOULD ALLOW THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH TO LIFT
NORTHWARD TOWARD OUR AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THE WEEKEND TO
START OUT WET UNDER THIS SETUP AS WARM AND MOIST AIR OVERRUNS THE
BOUNDARY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECONDARY WAVE
OF LOPRES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. IF LOPRES DEVELOPS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST, THE FRONT WOULD BE SLOWER TO PUSH
OFFSHORE AND PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY (ESPECIALLY AT COASTAL
LOCATIONS). POPS WERE KEPT AT 20-30 PERCENT WITH HIGH FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND OWING
TO THE CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OUR REGION HAS BEEN GRAZED BY SOME CLOUDS FROM A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TODAY TO OUR SOUTHEAST. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN VFR FOR THE MOST
PART WITH SOME LOCAL MVFR RESTRICTIONS. TEMPO GROUPS ARE INCLUDED
IN THE 18Z TAFS FOR PLACES THAT HAVE SEEN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO
MVFR. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE FROM 10-15
KNOTS TODAY, HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

OVERNIGHT CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO LOWER TO MVFR AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SOME DATA HINTS AT CEILINGS LOWERING TO NEAR IFR LEVELS TOWARD SUNRISE.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE FOR IFR IS LOW, LEFT OUT OF TAFS ATTM.
CLOUDS SHOULD RAISE AND BREAK UP WEDNESDAY WITH A NORTHEAST WIND
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR IN THE EVE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHRA AND TSRA LIKELY IN THE AFTN AT
RDG/ABE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY HOLD OFF FARTHER EAST UNTIL THIS EVE
AND OVNGT WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU. FROPA WILL BE MARKED BY
WIND SHIFT FROM S TO NW.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR

SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. GUSTS
IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN AND MORE IN THE 20
TO 25 KNOT RANGE FOR DEL BAY. SCA IS KINDA MARGINAL THERE. DECENT
SEAS 6 TO 8 FT ON THE OCEAN...AND A FEW HIGHER SEAS ACROSS THE MOUTH
OF DEL BAY. SHOWERS MOSTLY SOUTH/EAST TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY MORNING...SCA EXTENDED INTO WED MRNG WITH NE WINDS AROUND
A COASTAL LOW GUSTING TO 25 KT. SEAS BETWEEN 5-7 FT ARE EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TO BELOW SCA LEVELS BY
THE AFTN. HOWEVER, THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED DURING THIS TIME
AS SEAS WILL TAKE TIME TO SUBSIDE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WAVES OF 4-5 FT FOR THIS PERIOD.

THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONT BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT. STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DURING THE EVE. PRESSURE SURGE IN WAKE OF FROPA MAY
PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF NW WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR SCA THRESHOLD
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY....NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A COASTAL LOW MEANDERING JUST OFFSHORE AND ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUING, THE THREAT OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

MARGINAL MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OCCURRED ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE AND INTO DELAWARE BAY WITH THE TUESDAY MORNING
HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SIMILAR OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE AS
THE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS. GOING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MIDDAY,
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST LOOKS TO TIGHTEN SOMEWHAT, AND
THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE NORTHEASTERLY. WE
THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THROUGH
THE WEDNESDAY MORNING TO MIDDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND THIS EVE WITH
BREEZY NE FLOW AND A NEAR FULL MOON.

THE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS ON WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT
LEAST MODERATE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
     020-022>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ016-021.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ003-004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 1255 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY BEFORE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR
SOUTH WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY.
THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION
SATURDAY BEFORE THE FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE UP INTO THE
WATERS OFF TIDEWATER VA LATER TODAY. IT APPEARS FROM THE LATEST
MODELS THAT ONLY SRN- MOST NJ AND THE DELMARVA WILL BE THE ONLY
AREAS THAT WILL GET ANY PCPN FROM THIS SYSTEM. POPS HAVE BEEN
SCALED BACK ONLY INDICATING A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POP FROM PHL
EAST WITH THE 12:30 PM UPDATE. THE HRRR WAS OVERDONE WITH REALITY
THIS MORNING ON THE POPS WITH THE RAP HAVING A BETTER HANDLE ON
SHORT TERM CONDITIONS. CLOUDS AND A MOIST E/NE FLOW WILL BE ACROSS
MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA. WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE GFS MODEL WITH
THIS FCST...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND 12Z EC ARE ALL REASONABLY CLOSE
WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK AND EFFECTS WITH THE LOW. HIGHS
TODAY...MOSTLY LOW/MID 70S WITH A FEW UPPER 60S OVER THE SRN
POCONOS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES WERE MADE WITH BOTH
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AND IT WILL BE WELL E OF DEL BY 12Z
WED. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MOSTLY THE SRN COASTAL AREAS. E/NE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A COOL/DAMPNESS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS TONIGHT...LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE RANGING TO THE LOW/MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF H5
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS MID-LVL TROUGH AND
IN LEFT-EXIT REGION OF UPPER-LVL JET STREAK WILL BE PROGRESSING
DOWNSTREAM OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. THE COASTAL LOW IS
FORECAST TO MEANDER OFF THE DELMARVA COAST DURING THIS TIME.
ENHANCED WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WOULD MOST
LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE COASTAL LOW. RAIN
MAY LINGER NEAR THE DE AND SOUTHERN NJ COAST DURING THE MORNING. A
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE COASTAL LOW
DRIFTING FARTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE UPPER DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE.
FAVORED THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY AS MARINE
STRATOCU MAY BE STUBBORN TO ERODE UNDER THE PERSISTENCE OF ONSHORE
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT
FARTHER OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRATUS AND/OR FOG DEVELOPMENT (PARTICULARLY AT
LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST) WITH RESIDUAL MARINE AIR OVERHEAD.
FARTHER WEST INTO PA, LOW-LEVEL WINDS DO BEGIN TO VEER OUT OF THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST.

AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST STATES ON THURSDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS ABOUT 6 HOURS
FASTER WITH THE FROPA THAN THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF/CMC AND GEFS MEAN. A
SLOWER SOLUTION WOULD BE FAVORED IN THIS SETUP WITH THE DEEPENING
CYCLONE EXPECTED TO CUT WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS QUEBEC.
AFTERNOON POPS HIGHEST IN THE PA ZONES, WHERE TIMING OF FROPA WOULD
COINCIDE MORE FAVORABLY WITH PEAK HEATING HOURS. INTERESTINGLY, BOTH
THE 00Z NAM/GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT WITH PWATS WITHIN THE WELL-DEFINED ATMOSPHERIC RIVER NEAR +3SD
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME DEGREE
OF A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE THREAT OF
MAY BE MORE LOCALIZED ACROSS OUR AREA DUE TO A LACK OF SYNOPTIC LIFT
NOTED IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH ON FRIDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLOSE
OUT THE WORK WEEK.

A NORTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK THRU THE
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WOULD ALLOW THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH TO LIFT
NORTHWARD TOWARD OUR AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THE WEEKEND TO
START OUT WET UNDER THIS SETUP AS WARM AND MOIST AIR OVERRUNS THE
BOUNDARY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECONDARY WAVE
OF LOPRES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. IF LOPRES DEVELOPS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST, THE FRONT WOULD BE SLOWER TO PUSH
OFFSHORE AND PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY (ESPECIALLY AT COASTAL
LOCATIONS). POPS WERE KEPT AT 20-30 PERCENT WITH HIGH FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND OWING
TO THE CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 06Z TAFS WERE SOMEWHAT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH REGARDS TO
CIGS/VSBYS AT OUR TERMINALS. IT APPEARS THAT THE GFS/NAM ARE KEEPING
MUCH OF THE POORER CONDITIONS CLOSER TO THE LOW WHICH WILL PASS
SOUTH/EAST OF THE DEL VALLEY TAF SITES. KMIV/KACY WILL HAVE MORE OF
AN IMPACT...BUT STILL NOT AS LOW AS PREVIOUSLY FCST. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE E/ENE TODAY WITH SPEEDS 5 TO 10 KTS INLAND AND 10
TO 15 KTS ACROSS SRN NJ AND INTO DEL. IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR
EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN GUIDANCE SHOWING LOWER
CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO WED MRNG,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR WED AFTN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR IN THE EVE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHRA AND TSRA LIKELY IN THE AFTN AT
RDG/ABE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY HOLD OFF FARTHER EAST UNTIL THIS EVE
AND OVNGT WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU. FROPA WILL BE MARKED BY
WIND SHIFT FROM S TO NW.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR

SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. GUSTS
IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN AND MORE IN THE 20
TO 25 KNOT RANGE FOR DEL BAY. SCA IS KINDA MARGINAL THERE. DECENT
SEAS 6 TO 8 FT ON THE OCEAN...AND A FEW HIGHER SEAS ACROSS THE MOUTH
OF DEL BAY. SHOWERS MOSTLY SOUTH/EAST TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY MORNING...SCA EXTENDED INTO WED MRNG WITH NE WINDS AROUND
A COASTAL LOW GUSTING TO 25 KT. SEAS BETWEEN 5-7 FT ARE EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TO BELOW SCA LEVELS BY
THE AFTN. HOWEVER, THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED DURING THIS TIME
AS SEAS WILL TAKE TIME TO SUBSIDE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WAVES OF 4-5 FT FOR THIS PERIOD.

THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONT BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT. STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DURING THE EVE. PRESSURE SURGE IN WAKE OF FROPA MAY
PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF NW WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR SCA THRESHOLD
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY....NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A COASTAL LOW MEANDERING JUST OFFSHORE AND ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUING, THE THREAT OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

MARGINAL MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OCCURRED ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE AND INTO DELAWARE BAY WITH THE TUESDAY MORNING
HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SIMILAR OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE AS
THE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS. GOING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MIDDAY,
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST LOOKS TO TIGHTEN SOMEWHAT, AND
THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE NORTHEASTERLY. WE
THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THROUGH
THE WEDNESDAY MORNING TO MIDDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND THIS EVE WITH
BREEZY NE FLOW AND A NEAR FULL MOON.

THE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS ON WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT
LEAST MODERATE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
     020-022>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ016-021.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ003-004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KLINE
RIP CURRENTS...






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 1210 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY BEFORE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR
SOUTH WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY.
THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION
SATURDAY BEFORE THE FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE UP INTO THE
WATERS OFF TIDEWATER VA LATER TODAY. IT APPEARS FROM THE LATEST
MODELS THAT ONLY SRN- MOST NJ AND THE DELMARVA WILL BE THE ONLY
AREAS THAT WILL GET ANY PCPN FROM THIS SYSTEM. POPS HAVE BEEN
SCALED BACK ONLY INDICATING A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POP FROM PHL
EAST WITH THE 12:30 PM UPDATE. THE HRRR WAS OVERDONE WITH REALITY
THIS MORNING ON THE POPS WITH THE RAP HAVING A BETTER HANDLE ON
SHORT TERM CONDITIONS. CLOUDS AND A MOIST E/NE FLOW WILL BE ACROSS
MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA. WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE GFS MODEL WITH
THIS FCST...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND 12Z EC ARE ALL REASONABLY CLOSE
WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK AND EFFECTS WITH THE LOW. HIGHS
TODAY...MOSTLY LOW/MID 70S WITH A FEW UPPER 60S OVER THE SRN
POCONOS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES WERE MADE WITH BOTH
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AND IT WILL BE WELL E OF DEL BY 12Z
WED. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MOSTLY THE SRN COASTAL AREAS. E/NE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A COOL/DAMPNESS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS TONIGHT...LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE RANGING TO THE LOW/MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF H5
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS MID-LVL TROUGH AND
IN LEFT-EXIT REGION OF UPPER-LVL JET STREAK WILL BE PROGRESSING
DOWNSTREAM OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. THE COASTAL LOW IS
FORECAST TO MEANDER OFF THE DELMARVA COAST DURING THIS TIME.
ENHANCED WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WOULD MOST
LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE COASTAL LOW. RAIN
MAY LINGER NEAR THE DE AND SOUTHERN NJ COAST DURING THE MORNING. A
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE COASTAL LOW
DRIFTING FARTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE UPPER DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE.
FAVORED THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY AS MARINE
STRATOCU MAY BE STUBBORN TO ERODE UNDER THE PERSISTENCE OF ONSHORE
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT
FARTHER OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRATUS AND/OR FOG DEVELOPMENT (PARTICULARLY AT
LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST) WITH RESIDUAL MARINE AIR OVERHEAD.
FARTHER WEST INTO PA, LOW-LEVEL WINDS DO BEGIN TO VEER OUT OF THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST.

AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST STATES ON THURSDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS ABOUT 6 HOURS
FASTER WITH THE FROPA THAN THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF/CMC AND GEFS MEAN. A
SLOWER SOLUTION WOULD BE FAVORED IN THIS SETUP WITH THE DEEPENING
CYCLONE EXPECTED TO CUT WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS QUEBEC.
AFTERNOON POPS HIGHEST IN THE PA ZONES, WHERE TIMING OF FROPA WOULD
COINCIDE MORE FAVORABLY WITH PEAK HEATING HOURS. INTERESTINGLY, BOTH
THE 00Z NAM/GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT WITH PWATS WITHIN THE WELL-DEFINED ATMOSPHERIC RIVER NEAR +3SD
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME DEGREE
OF A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE THREAT OF
MAY BE MORE LOCALIZED ACROSS OUR AREA DUE TO A LACK OF SYNOPTIC LIFT
NOTED IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH ON FRIDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLOSE
OUT THE WORK WEEK.

A NORTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK THRU THE
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WOULD ALLOW THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH TO LIFT
NORTHWARD TOWARD OUR AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THE WEEKEND TO
START OUT WET UNDER THIS SETUP AS WARM AND MOIST AIR OVERRUNS THE
BOUNDARY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECONDARY WAVE
OF LOPRES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. IF LOPRES DEVELOPS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST, THE FRONT WOULD BE SLOWER TO PUSH
OFFSHORE AND PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY (ESPECIALLY AT COASTAL
LOCATIONS). POPS WERE KEPT AT 20-30 PERCENT WITH HIGH FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND OWING
TO THE CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 06Z TAFS WERE SOMEWHAT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH REGARDS TO
CIGS/VSBYS AT OUR TERMINALS. IT APPEARS THAT THE GFS/NAM ARE KEEPING
MUCH OF THE POORER CONDITIONS CLOSER TO THE LOW WHICH WILL PASS
SOUTH/EAST OF THE DEL VALLEY TAF SITES. KMIV/KACY WILL HAVE MORE OF
AN IMPACT...BUT STILL NOT AS LOW AS PREVIOUSLY FCST. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE E/ENE TODAY WITH SPEEDS 5 TO 10 KTS INLAND AND 10
TO 15 KTS ACROSS SRN NJ AND INTO DEL. IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR
EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN GUIDANCE SHOWING LOWER
CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO WED MRNG,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR WED AFTN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR IN THE EVE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHRA AND TSRA LIKELY IN THE AFTN AT
RDG/ABE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY HOLD OFF FARTHER EAST UNTIL THIS EVE
AND OVNGT WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU. FROPA WILL BE MARKED BY
WIND SHIFT FROM S TO NW.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR

SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. GUSTS
IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN AND MORE IN THE 20
TO 25 KNOT RANGE FOR DEL BAY. SCA IS KINDA MARGINAL THERE. DECENT
SEAS 6 TO 8 FT ON THE OCEAN...AND A FEW HIGHER SEAS ACROSS THE MOUTH
OF DEL BAY. SHOWERS MOSTLY SOUTH/EAST TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY MORNING...SCA EXTENDED INTO WED MRNG WITH NE WINDS AROUND
A COASTAL LOW GUSTING TO 25 KT. SEAS BETWEEN 5-7 FT ARE EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TO BELOW SCA LEVELS BY
THE AFTN. HOWEVER, THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED DURING THIS TIME
AS SEAS WILL TAKE TIME TO SUBSIDE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WAVES OF 4-5 FT FOR THIS PERIOD.

THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONT BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT. STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DURING THE EVE. PRESSURE SURGE IN WAKE OF FROPA MAY
PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF NW WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR SCA THRESHOLD
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY....NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. MORE MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED...SPOTTY WITH THE MORNING HIGH TIDE AND A BIT
MORE WIDESPREAD WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. A CFW ADVISORIES WAS
ISSUED TO COVER THE NEXT TWO HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

WITH A COASTAL LOW MEANDERING JUST OFFSHORE AND ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUING, THE THREAT OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MAY CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY`S HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND THIS EVE WITH
BREEZY NE FLOW AND A NEAR FULL MOON.

THE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS ON WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT
LEAST MODERATE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
     020-022>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ016-021.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ003-004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

 605 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS
AND GEORGIA FROM THE NORTH. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO RIDGE FROM THE NORTH. THERE MAY STILL BE A SPRINKLE
OR TWO WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN BUT OTHERWISE RAIN CHANCES ARE VERY LOW
FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH LIGHT
WIND AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD
HELP SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PUSH INTO THE ATLANTIC BASIN THURSDAY AS
THE NEXT COLD FRONT TRACKS TOWARD THE AREA. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH PWAT VALUES FALLING THROUGH THE DAY AND REACHING 1.3
INCHES BY EARLY EVENING. THE DRIER AIR ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WILL
PRECLUDE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE SCENARIO WILL BEGIN CHANGING ON THURSDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO AND TN VALLEYS AND INTO THE UPSTATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE INCREASING CLOUDS AND WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS PUSHING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA PWAT VALUES
WILL BEGIN TO RISE. ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON HAVE REMAINED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS DRY AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN ALONG WITH A MID LEVEL
CAP. POPS WILL INCREASE SLOWLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
CLOSER THE THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. COLD
FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT MOVES IN THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND
STALL ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
EASTERN US AND BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW
NORMAL EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION. THIS
MOISTURE IS IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN A PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG
THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA
COASTS. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE LOW SHIFTING FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD WITH
MOISTURE BECOMING MORE SHALLOW. THE DECREASE IN MOISTURE WITH SOME
HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD HELP CAUSE IMPROVING CEILINGS. WE USED
THE RAP TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND GFS LAMP FOR THE TIMING OF
IMPROVING CEILINGS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THIS EVENING. NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH LIGHT
WIND AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD
HELP SUPPORT FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. MOST
OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS INDICATE IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. HEATING
AND MIXING SHOULD DISSIPATE THE FOG LATER IN THE MORNING. USED THE
GFS LAMP FOR THE TIMING.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG MAY OCCUR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

 237 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS
AND GEORGIA FROM THE NORTH. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION. THIS
MOISTURE IS IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN A PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG
THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA
COASTS. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE LOW SHIFTING FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD WITH
MOISTURE BECOMING MORE SHALLOW IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE DECREASE IN
MOISTURE WITH SOME HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD HELP CAUSE BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDINESS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S
NORTH AND MIDDLE 80S SOUTH. THE SHOWER CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF
SHALLOW MOISTURE. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT.
NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WIND AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD HELP SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT.
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PUSH INTO THE ATLANTIC BASIN THURSDAY AS
THE NEXT COLD FRONT TRACKS TOWARD THE AREA. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH PWAT VALUES FALLING THROUGH THE DAY AND REACHING 1.3
INCHES BY EARLY EVENING. THE DRIER AIR ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WILL
PRECLUDE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE SCENARIO WILL BEGIN CHANGING ON THURSDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO AND TN VALLEYS AND INTO THE UPSTATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE INCREASING CLOUDS AND WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS PUSHING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA PWAT VALUES
WILL BEGIN TO RISE. ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON HAVE REMAINED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS DRY AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN ALONG WITH A MID LEVEL
CAP. POPS WILL INCREASE SLOWLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
CLOSER THE THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. COLD
FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT MOVES IN THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND
STALL ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
EASTERN US AND BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW
NORMAL EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION. THIS
MOISTURE IS IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN A PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG
THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA
COASTS. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE LOW SHIFTING FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD WITH
MOISTURE BECOMING MORE SHALLOW. THE DECREASE IN MOISTURE WITH SOME
HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD HELP CAUSE IMPROVING CEILINGS. WE USED
THE RAP TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND GFS LAMP FOR THE TIMING OF
IMPROVING CEILINGS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THIS EVENING. NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH LIGHT
WIND AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD
HELP SUPPORT FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. MOST
OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS INDICATE IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. HEATING
AND MIXING SHOULD DISSIPATE THE FOG LATER IN THE MORNING. USED THE
GFS LAMP FOR THE TIMING.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG MAY OCCUR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

 136 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS
AND GEORGIA FROM THE NORTH. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION. THIS
MOISTURE IS IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN A PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG
THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA
COASTS. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE LOW SHIFTING FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD WITH
MOISTURE BECOMING MORE SHALLOW IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE DECREASE IN
MOISTURE WITH SOME HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD HELP CAUSE BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDINESS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S
NORTH AND MIDDLE 80S SOUTH. THE SHOWER CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF
SHALLOW MOISTURE. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT.
NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WIND AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD HELP SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT.
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION. A FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WEDNESDAY. PAST FEW MODELS RUNS HAVE AGREED ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. COLD FRONT
WILL BE STRETCHED BEGINNING THURSDAY FROM NEW ENGLAND
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
THE FRONT WILL MARCH EASTWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND REACH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE COAST AND STALL ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY. BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL
REMAINS OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. WITH THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO THE
FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST POPS CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION. THIS
MOISTURE IS IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN A PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG
THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA
COASTS. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE LOW SHIFTING FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD WITH
MOISTURE BECOMING MORE SHALLOW. THE DECREASE IN MOISTURE WITH SOME
HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD HELP CAUSE IMPROVING CEILINGS. WE USED
THE RAP TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND GFS LAMP FOR THE TIMING OF
IMPROVING CEILINGS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THIS EVENING. NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH LIGHT
WIND AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD
HELP SUPPORT FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. MOST
OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS INDICATE IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. HEATING
AND MIXING SHOULD DISSIPATE THE FOG LATER IN THE MORNING. USED THE
GFS LAMP FOR THE TIMING.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG MAY OCCUR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 1249 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN ORGANIZING IN THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY LAT THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE 60S AND IT WILL FEEL MORE
HUMID OVERNIGHT AS WELL. BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
HEAVY RAIN...ALONG WITH A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...ARRIVE TOMORROW
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 538 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

PRECIPITATION ACROSS IL CONTINUES TO EXPAND EAST ALONG THETA E
SURGE...ALBEIT PCPN APPEARS TO BE LIGHT ON EASTERN FLANK. GETTING
TOO CLOSE FOR COMFORT AND 07Z HRRR NOW BRINGS SOME LIGHT QPF INTO
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST OTHER HIRES GUIDANCE
STILL DEPICTS NO PCPN INTO OUR AREA BUT RADAR/SAT TRENDS SUGGEST A
LOW POP IS PRUDENT THIS MORNING ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS QUIET BUT EXPECT INCREASING
MOISTURE DURING THE PERIOD AHEAD OF POTENT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FOR WEDNESDAY.

INITIAL THETA E SURGE RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EARLY
THIS MORNING UPSTREAM ACROSS EASTERN IA AND NORTHWEST IL. RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWS THIS PCPN STRUGGLING TO MOVE EAST INTO DRIER AIR AND
MOST HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS PCPN WEST OF OUR AREA TODAY. WILL
THEREFORE KEEP A DRY FORECAST INTACT TODAY BUT WILL SEE INITIAL
SURGE OF HIGHER THETA E AIR WORK EAST DURING THE DAY. MID AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY BE THIN AT TIMES DURING THE DAY. FILTERED SUNSHINE
EXPECTED. CLOUDS TO OFFSET WARMER 925-850MB TEMPS SO HIGHS TODAY
EXPECTED NEAR OR JUST ABOVE MONDAY TEMPS.

STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS TONIGHT IN THE PLAINS WITH POTENT SHORT
WAVE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS. SECONDARY THETA E SURGE
WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT BUT MAIN FORCING EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST
OF OUR AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS DEPICTED ON
MODELS WITH SOME SATURATION BUT EXPECT THIS TO GO MORE INTO CLOUD
FORMATION AND MOISTENING OF ATMOSPHERE. THETA E GRADIENT DOES ENTER
NORTHWEST AREAS LATE SO WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE THERE LATE TONIGHT.
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...GRADIENT AND MOISTURE EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO
REMAIN IN THE 60S. HAVE USED A WARMER BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.


&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

ALL EYES ON WEDNESDAY`S SYSTEM WITH CHILLY TEMPS BEING THE ONLY
SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA STILL EXPECTED TO EJECT
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT CROSSES
THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT A TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE REGION AND COUPLED
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAKS WILL FAVOR STRONG CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. SYNOPTIC SCALE DETAILS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN LATEST MODEL
SUITE. BEST PV ADVECTION AND DEFORMATION FORCING WILL PASS TO OUR
NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW TRACK BUT GOOD MIDLEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL STILL LEAD TO GOOD
FGEN ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT. AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE AMPLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. DEEP
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL BE DRAWN
NORTH WITH THIS WAVE...ALONG WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
WESTERN GULF/SOUTHERN PLAINS. PW VALUES STILL EXPECTED TO BE OVER 2
INCHES...RECORD TERRITORY FOR THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. THIS COUPLED
WITH GOOD FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. TWO POSSIBLE IMPACTS TO
DISCUSS...SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE ENTIRELY DEPENDENT ON DEGREE OF
DIABATIC BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING EARLY IN THE DAY. 00Z NAM STILL A
RELATIVE OUTLIER IN SUGGESTING SBCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 2000
J/KG...PERPLEXING GIVEN THE DEGREE OF MORNING CLOUD COVER SEEN IN RH
FIELDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS. STILL PREFER THE MORE SUBDUED GFS
INSTABILITY VALUES GIVEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT RH/CLOUD FORECASTS SEEN
IN ALL OF THE MODELS. THAT BEING SAID...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK WILL BE POSSIBLE IF WE MANAGE TO GET ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING
BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES. KINEMATICS ARE EXCELLENT WITH 850MB WINDS
AT OR ABOVE 50 KTS AND GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS WELL. PRECIP LOADING
IN VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE BRINGING STRONG
WIND CORE DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH EVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE A THREAT GIVEN LOW LCL`S AND STRONG
SHEAR. WHILE CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR MORNING CLOUDS TO CURTAIL
THE SEVERE RISK SOMEWHAT...CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS NOT HIGH
AND EVERYONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS CLOSELY
AS IT DOES NOT TAKE A LOT OF INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER IN THESE HIGH SHEAR SITUATIONS. SUBTLE BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK AND
A NONEVENT AND THAT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS POINT...GIVEN FURTHER DISPLACEMENT FROM
MORNING PRECIP AND CLOUD DEBRIS.

THE OTHER IMPACT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING. AGAIN...THIS WILL DEPEND SOMEWHAT ON DEGREE OF DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION BUT EXPECT SOME HEALTHY RAINFALL AMOUNTS REGARDLESS
OF CONVECTIVE COMPONENT. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL BE UNUSUALLY HIGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM
CLOUD LAYER OF AROUND 13 KFT...FAVORING EFFICIENT
COLLISION/COALESCENCE PROCESSES. MEAN FLOW VECTORS ARE ORIENTED A
BIT TOO ORTHOGONAL TO THE FRONT FOR A VERY LONG DURATION OF HEAVY
RAIN BUT SOME TRAINING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND PRECIP EFFICIENCY.
EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL SEE AROUND AN INCH WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER TOMORROW. A SECONDARY VORT MAX
WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY GENERATE
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. MAIN STORY WILL BE MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS. 850MB
TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR 0C BY THIS WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECTING A
HEALTHY CU/STRATOCU DECK ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO KEEP A LID ON
AFTERNOON TEMPS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S THROUGH SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

SHOWERS WITH MCV HAVE BASICALLY EVAPORATED IN DRY AIRMASS LEAVING
DRY/VFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING AS LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING BRIEFLY MOVES THROUGH. CHANCES FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION/RESTRICTIONS AND INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW/SHEAR
WILL INCREASE AT MAINLY SBN LATER TONIGHT/TOMORROW IN RESPONSE TO
PRIMARY THETA-E SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH IA/SW WI CYCLOGENESIS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LASHLEY
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY/BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 1236 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN ORGANIZING IN THE PLAINS TODAY
AND WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST
INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
DROP INTO THE 60S AND IT WILL FEEL MORE HUMID OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN...ALONG WITH A
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...ARRIVE TOMORROW INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING
ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 538 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

PRECIPITATION ACROSS IL CONTINUES TO EXPAND EAST ALONG THETA E
SURGE...ALBEIT PCPN APPEARS TO BE LIGHT ON EASTERN FLANK. GETTING
TOO CLOSE FOR COMFORT AND 07Z HRRR NOW BRINGS SOME LIGHT QPF INTO
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST OTHER HIRES GUIDANCE
STILL DEPICTS NO PCPN INTO OUR AREA BUT RADAR/SAT TRENDS SUGGEST A
LOW POP IS PRUDENT THIS MORNING ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS QUIET BUT EXPECT INCREASING
MOISTURE DURING THE PERIOD AHEAD OF POTENT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FOR WEDNESDAY.

INITIAL THETA E SURGE RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EARLY
THIS MORNING UPSTREAM ACROSS EASTERN IA AND NORTHWEST IL. RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWS THIS PCPN STRUGGLING TO MOVE EAST INTO DRIER AIR AND
MOST HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS PCPN WEST OF OUR AREA TODAY. WILL
THEREFORE KEEP A DRY FORECAST INTACT TODAY BUT WILL SEE INITIAL
SURGE OF HIGHER THETA E AIR WORK EAST DURING THE DAY. MID AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY BE THIN AT TIMES DURING THE DAY. FILTERED SUNSHINE
EXPECTED. CLOUDS TO OFFSET WARMER 925-850MB TEMPS SO HIGHS TODAY
EXPECTED NEAR OR JUST ABOVE MONDAY TEMPS.

STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS TONIGHT IN THE PLAINS WITH POTENT SHORT
WAVE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS. SECONDARY THETA E SURGE
WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT BUT MAIN FORCING EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST
OF OUR AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS DEPICTED ON
MODELS WITH SOME SATURATION BUT EXPECT THIS TO GO MORE INTO CLOUD
FORMATION AND MOISTENING OF ATMOSPHERE. THETA E GRADIENT DOES ENTER
NORTHWEST AREAS LATE SO WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE THERE LATE TONIGHT.
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...GRADIENT AND MOISTURE EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO
REMAIN IN THE 60S. HAVE USED A WARMER BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.


&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

ALL EYES ON WEDNESDAY`S SYSTEM WITH CHILLY TEMPS BEING THE ONLY
SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA STILL EXPECTED TO EJECT
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT CROSSES
THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT A TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE REGION AND COUPLED
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAKS WILL FAVOR STRONG CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. SYNOPTIC SCALE DETAILS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN LATEST MODEL
SUITE. BEST PV ADVECTION AND DEFORMATION FORCING WILL PASS TO OUR
NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW TRACK BUT GOOD MIDLEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL STILL LEAD TO GOOD
FGEN ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT. AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE AMPLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. DEEP
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL BE DRAWN
NORTH WITH THIS WAVE...ALONG WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
WESTERN GULF/SOUTHERN PLAINS. PW VALUES STILL EXPECTED TO BE OVER 2
INCHES...RECORD TERRITORY FOR THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. THIS COUPLED
WITH GOOD FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. TWO POSSIBLE IMPACTS TO
DISCUSS...SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE ENTIRELY DEPENDENT ON DEGREE OF
DIABATIC BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING EARLY IN THE DAY. 00Z NAM STILL A
RELATIVE OUTLIER IN SUGGESTING SBCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 2000
J/KG...PERPLEXING GIVEN THE DEGREE OF MORNING CLOUD COVER SEEN IN RH
FIELDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS. STILL PREFER THE MORE SUBDUED GFS
INSTABILITY VALUES GIVEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT RH/CLOUD FORECASTS SEEN
IN ALL OF THE MODELS. THAT BEING SAID...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK WILL BE POSSIBLE IF WE MANAGE TO GET ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING
BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES. KINEMATICS ARE EXCELLENT WITH 850MB WINDS
AT OR ABOVE 50 KTS AND GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS WELL. PRECIP LOADING
IN VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE BRINGING STRONG
WIND CORE DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH EVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE A THREAT GIVEN LOW LCL`S AND STRONG
SHEAR. WHILE CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR MORNING CLOUDS TO CURTAIL
THE SEVERE RISK SOMEWHAT...CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS NOT HIGH
AND EVERYONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS CLOSELY
AS IT DOES NOT TAKE A LOT OF INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER IN THESE HIGH SHEAR SITUATIONS. SUBTLE BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK AND
A NONEVENT AND THAT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS POINT...GIVEN FURTHER DISPLACEMENT FROM
MORNING PRECIP AND CLOUD DEBRIS.

THE OTHER IMPACT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING. AGAIN...THIS WILL DEPEND SOMEWHAT ON DEGREE OF DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION BUT EXPECT SOME HEALTHY RAINFALL AMOUNTS REGARDLESS
OF CONVECTIVE COMPONENT. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL BE UNUSUALLY HIGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM
CLOUD LAYER OF AROUND 13 KFT...FAVORING EFFICIENT
COLLISION/COALESCENCE PROCESSES. MEAN FLOW VECTORS ARE ORIENTED A
BIT TOO ORTHOGONAL TO THE FRONT FOR A VERY LONG DURATION OF HEAVY
RAIN BUT SOME TRAINING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND PRECIP EFFICIENCY.
EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL SEE AROUND AN INCH WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER TOMORROW. A SECONDARY VORT MAX
WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY GENERATE
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. MAIN STORY WILL BE MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS. 850MB
TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR 0C BY THIS WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECTING A
HEALTHY CU/STRATOCU DECK ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO KEEP A LID ON
AFTERNOON TEMPS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S THROUGH SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

SHOWERS WITH MCV HAVE BASICALLY EVAPORATED IN DRY AIRMASS LEAVING
DRY/VFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING AS LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING BRIEFLY MOVES THROUGH. CHANCES FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION/RESTRICTIONS AND INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW/SHEAR
WILL INCREASE AT MAINLY SBN LATER TONIGHT/TOMORROW IN RESPONSE TO
PRIMARY THETA-E SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH IA/SW WI CYCLOGENESIS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LASHLEY
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

 557 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST CO HAD A WARM FRONT EXTENDED
INTO NORTHERN MO INTO SOUTHERN IL. TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH OF
THE FRONT WERE WELL IN THE 80S TO MID 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. SBCAPES OF 4000 J/KG WERE OCCURRING IN WESTERN
MO. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT IN THE RAIN COOLED AIR READINGS WERE
ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS WERE
LOCATED IN WESTERN KS. PRECIPITABLE WATERS WERE AS HIGH AS 1.9 INCHES
IN NORTHERN MO.

DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW FESTERING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEB INTO SOUTHEAST IA AND CENTRAL IL
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

HEADLINES...NOW THAT MUCH OF THE AREA HAS SATURATED SOILS THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY. SOME
LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE 4 TO 6 INCHES...ESPECIALLY IN ANY TRAINING/REPEATING
STORMS. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN ON VERY SATURATED SOILS WOULD CAUSE SERIOUS
FLASH FLOODING. PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL BE AT NEAR RECORD VALUES
FOR SEPTEMBER...ABOUT 2.2 INCHES. THIS IS DUE TO RICH GULF MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS MAJOR PACIFIC
HURRICANE NORBERT. RAINFALL RATES WILL BE EXTREMELY HIGH SO VERY
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. CONFIDENCE IS VERY
HIGH FOR THIS FLASH FLOOD EVENT BUT IS LOWER FOR THE SEVERE THREAT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED WET MICROBURSTS DUE TO THE
VERY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE BUT ANY HAIL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS. I AM CONCERNED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OR TWO ON ANY BOUNDARY AS THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BECOMES VERY STRONG
EVEN WELL AFTER DARK AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS TOWARDS
LA CROSSE WI BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE HRRR MESO MODEL SUGGESTS ACTIVITY
INCREASING IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR TOWARDS EVENING
THEN SPREADING NORTHEAST AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...WITH WIDESPREAD
STORMS THEN OCCURRING OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
ALSO PRODUCE FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY...DEEPENING CYCLONE WILL TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO OUR WESTERN CWA IN THE MORNING AND
OUR EASTERN CWA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE CWA WITH THE FRONT. THE SEVERE
THREAT APPEARS TO BE FARTHER TO THE EAST THAN EARLIER THOUGHT AND SPC
HAS THE SLIGHT RISK ONLY IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...BUT THIS WILL
DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S AT INDEPENDENCE IA TO THE UPPER 70S
IN OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SEASONABLY STRONG RIDGE STILL ON
TRACK TO DUMP DOWN  THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS RVR VALLEY THIS PERIOD.
EXPECT MOST POST-FRONTAL RAINS TO BE OUT OF THE CWA AT START OF THE
PERIOD...WITH JUST DEEPENING LLVL NORTHERLY FLOW COOL ADVECTING AND
SCORING OUT THE CLOUD COVER EVENTUALLY BY THU MORNING. EVEN IF CLOUD
COVER HOLDS ON TIL DAYLIGHT...LOWS TO BE ADVECTED DOWN INTO THE 40S
IN MOST OF THE CWA. INCOMING CANADIAN AIR TO WARM ONLY INTO THE 60S
THU EVEN WITH SOME SUNSHINE...WITH A QUICK DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET THU
EVENING INTO THE 40S BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM TOWARD FRI MORNING HALTS TEMP DROP OFF. STILL SOME PHASING
ISSUES TO BE HAMMERED OUT...BUT LATEST RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST SOME TYPE OF WAVE/POSSIBLY RATHER VIGOROUS...TO ROLL ACRS
THE REGION ON FRI. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE NEAR THE MOISTURE
SOURCE OR THERMODYNAMICS TO WORK WITH AS THE CURRENT SYSTEM...BUT
STILL SHOULD INDUCE A RAIN SHIELD THAT WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE
CWA FROM WEST TO EAST AS FRI PROGRESSES. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP TO
KEEP A LID ON TEMPS WITH MOST AREAS HELD IN THE 50S OR EVEN UPPER 40S
AND NORTH WINDS MAKING FOR A RAW DAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST
MOST AREAS TO GET FROM 0.10 UP CLOSE TO HALF AN INCH BY THE TIME THE
RAIN PULLS OUT FRI EVENING. MODELS STILL VARYING ON PRECIP AND CLOUD
COVER EXIT TIMING LATER FRI NIGHT...BUT WILL JUST KEEP PRECIP IN THE
EVENING FOR NOW. POST-WAVE SUBSIDENCE MAY MAKE FOR A LATE NIGHT
CLEAR OUT...BUT SOME CHANCE FOR SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO TRAP CLOUDS
INTO SAT MORNING LIMITING FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING COLD POTENTIAL. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE COLD MODEL WITH SOME UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE DVN CWA AND LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. THE ECMWF
MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW TO MID 40S BUT KEEPS THE CLOUD COVER AND SOME
MIXING SFC WINDS GOING INTO SAT MORNING. WITH EXTENT OF INCOMING
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS...FEEL WITH ANY KIND OF CLEAR OUT/PARTIAL
CLEARING AND SFC WIND DROP OFF UNDER 10 MPH LATE FRI NIGHT...THE
COOLER GFS WILL PREVAIL.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGHS ONLY RECOVERING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S SAT UNDER WEAK MIXING REGIME OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE...
THEN HOW COLD TO GO SAT NIGHT THE CHALLENGE. IF LLVL RETURN FLOW
DOES NOT MATERIALIZE IN TIME AND THE SFC RIDGE PERSISTS LONGER
BEFORE EASTWARD MIGRATION...SAT NIGHT MAY BE THE COOLER OF THE TWO
COLD WINDOW NIGHTS BEING WATCHED RIGHT NOW...MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING PARAMETERS IN LINE POSSIBLY. MORE WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MS RVR CLOSER TO RIDGE CENTER. WAA
ON BACK SIDE OF RIDGE COMPLEX MAY GENERATE SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS
INTO THE WESTERN CWA BY LAT SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW ON
THAT SCENARIO.

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...NEXT WAVE WILL LOOK TO SHEAR ACRS THE
UPPER MIDWEST SOMETIME THIS PERIOD FOR THE NEXT RAIN CHANCE...WITH
THE 12Z RUN ECMWF MORE PHASED AN ORGANIZED WITH THIS SYSTEM MON
NIGHT INTO TUE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AS OPPOSED TO THE GFS. ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR/OCNL IFR AS SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOME
WIDESPREAD LATER THIS EVE THROUGH EARLY WED AM AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT. STORMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN... AND A FEW
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. PCPN WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY BY MID TO LATE WED AM... AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY COME THROUGH THE TERMINALS BETWEEN
16Z-20Z BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE. SOME LOWER CIGS INTO IFR POSSIBLE ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR A TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RIVER WATCH WILL BE ON THROUGH MID WEEK. AFTER LAST NIGHT/S AND
THIS MORNINGS RAINS...ANOTHER 1-4 INCHES TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING
WILL DEFINITELY PRODUCE SOME FLOODING ON AREA TRIBUTARIES...DEPENDING
ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL IN THE LOCAL
AREA OF CONCERN. RIVER BASINS TO WATCH FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL ON SOME
OF THE FCST POINTS FROM WED THROUGH FRI MORNING ARE THE SKUNK...
CEDAR...IOWA...WAPSI...ENGLISH...AND DES MOINES RIVERS. THE
MAQUOKETA MAY GET CLOSE. IF NOT FLOODING THEN SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK
RISES TO OCCUR.     ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...05
HYDROLOGY...12





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

 354 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST CO HAD A WARM FRONT EXTENDED
INTO NORTHERN MO INTO SOUTHERN IL. TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH OF
THE FRONT WERE WELL IN THE 80S TO MID 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. SBCAPES OF 4000 J/KG WERE OCCURRING IN WESTERN
MO. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT IN THE RAIN COOLED AIR READINGS WERE
ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS WERE
LOCATED IN WESTERN KS. PRECIPITABLE WATERS WERE AS HIGH AS 1.9 INCHES
IN NORTHERN MO.

DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW FESTERING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEB INTO SOUTHEAST IA AND CENTRAL IL
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

HEADLINES...NOW THAT MUCH OF THE AREA HAS SATURATED SOILS THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY. SOME
LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE 4 TO 6 INCHES...ESPECIALLY IN ANY TRAINING/REPEATING
STORMS. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN ON VERY SATURATED SOILS WOULD CAUSE SERIOUS
FLASH FLOODING. PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL BE AT NEAR RECORD VALUES
FOR SEPTEMBER...ABOUT 2.2 INCHES. THIS IS DUE TO RICH GULF MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS MAJOR PACIFIC
HURRICANE NORBERT. RAINFALL RATES WILL BE EXTREMELY HIGH SO VERY
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. CONFIDENCE IS VERY
HIGH FOR THIS FLASH FLOOD EVENT BUT IS LOWER FOR THE SEVERE THREAT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED WET MICROBURSTS DUE TO THE
VERY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE BUT ANY HAIL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS. I AM CONCERNED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OR TWO ON ANY BOUNDARY AS THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BECOMES VERY STRONG
EVEN WELL AFTER DARK AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS TOWARDS
LA CROSSE WI BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE HRRR MESO MODEL SUGGESTS ACTIVITY
INCREASING IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR TOWARDS EVENING
THEN SPREADING NORTHEAST AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...WITH WIDESPREAD
STORMS THEN OCCURRING OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
ALSO PRODUCE FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY...DEEPENING CYCLONE WILL TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO OUR WESTERN CWA IN THE MORNING AND
OUR EASTERN CWA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE CWA WITH THE FRONT. THE SEVERE
THREAT APPEARS TO BE FARTHER TO THE EAST THAN EARLIER THOUGHT AND SPC
HAS THE SLIGHT RISK ONLY IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...BUT THIS WILL
DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S AT INDEPENDENCE IA TO THE UPPER 70S
IN OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SEASONABLY STRONG RIDGE STILL ON
TRACK TO DUMP DOWN  THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS RVR VALLEY THIS PERIOD.
EXPECT MOST POST-FRONTAL RAINS TO BE OUT OF THE CWA AT START OF THE
PERIOD...WITH JUST DEEPENING LLVL NORTHERLY FLOW COOL ADVECTING AND
SCORING OUT THE CLOUD COVER EVENTUALLY BY THU MORNING. EVEN IF CLOUD
COVER HOLDS ON TIL DAYLIGHT...LOWS TO BE ADVECTED DOWN INTO THE 40S
IN MOST OF THE CWA. INCOMING CANADIAN AIR TO WARM ONLY INTO THE 60S
THU EVEN WITH SOME SUNSHINE...WITH A QUICK DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET THU
EVENING INTO THE 40S BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM TOWARD FRI MORNING HALTS TEMP DROP OFF. STILL SOME PHASING
ISSUES TO BE HAMMERED OUT...BUT LATEST RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST SOME TYPE OF WAVE/POSSIBLY RATHER VIGOROUS...TO ROLL ACRS
THE REGION ON FRI. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE NEAR THE MOISTURE
SOURCE OR THERMODYNAMICS TO WORK WITH AS THE CURRENT SYSTEM...BUT
STILL SHOULD INDUCE A RAIN SHIELD THAT WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE
CWA FROM WEST TO EAST AS FRI PROGRESSES. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP TO
KEEP A LID ON TEMPS WITH MOST AREAS HELD IN THE 50S OR EVEN UPPER 40S
AND NORTH WINDS MAKING FOR A RAW DAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST
MOST AREAS TO GET FROM 0.10 UP CLOSE TO HALF AN INCH BY THE TIME THE
RAIN PULLS OUT FRI EVENING. MODELS STILL VARYING ON PRECIP AND CLOUD
COVER EXIT TIMING LATER FRI NIGHT...BUT WILL JUST KEEP PRECIP IN THE
EVENING FOR NOW. POST-WAVE SUBSIDENCE MAY MAKE FOR A LATE NIGHT
CLEAR OUT...BUT SOME CHANCE FOR SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO TRAP CLOUDS
INTO SAT MORNING LIMITING FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING COLD POTENTIAL. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE COLD MODEL WITH SOME UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE DVN CWA AND LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. THE ECMWF
MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW TO MID 40S BUT KEEPS THE CLOUD COVER AND SOME
MIXING SFC WINDS GOING INTO SAT MORNING. WITH EXTENT OF INCOMING
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS...FEEL WITH ANY KIND OF CLEAR OUT/PARTIAL
CLEARING AND SFC WIND DROP OFF UNDER 10 MPH LATE FRI NIGHT...THE
COOLER GFS WILL PREVAIL.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGHS ONLY RECOVERING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S SAT UNDER WEAK MIXING REGIME OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE...
THEN HOW COLD TO GO SAT NIGHT THE CHALLENGE. IF LLVL RETURN FLOW
DOES NOT MATERIALIZE IN TIME AND THE SFC RIDGE PERSISTS LONGER
BEFORE EASTWARD MIGRATION...SAT NIGHT MAY BE THE COOLER OF THE TWO
COLD WINDOW NIGHTS BEING WATCHED RIGHT NOW...MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING PARAMETERS IN LINE POSSIBLY. MORE WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MS RVR CLOSER TO RIDGE CENTER. WAA
ON BACK SIDE OF RIDGE COMPLEX MAY GENERATE SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS
INTO THE WESTERN CWA BY LAT SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW ON
THAT SCENARIO.

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...NEXT WAVE WILL LOOK TO SHEAR ACRS THE
UPPER MIDWEST SOMETIME THIS PERIOD FOR THE NEXT RAIN CHANCE...WITH
THE 12Z RUN ECMWF MORE PHASED AN ORGANIZED WITH THIS SYSTEM MON
NIGHT INTO TUE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AS OPPOSED TO THE GFS. ..12..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RIVER WATCH WILL BE ON THROUGH MID WEEK. AFTER LAST NIGHT/S AND
THIS MORNINGS RAINS...ANOTHER 1-4 INCHES TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING
WILL DEFINITELY PRODUCE SOME FLOODING ON AREA TRIBUTARIES...DEPENDING
ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL IN THE LOCAL
AREA OF CONCERN. RIVER BASINS TO WATCH FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL ON SOME
OF THE FCST POINTS FROM WED THROUGH FRI MORNING ARE THE SKUNK...
CEDAR...IOWA...WAPSI...ENGLISH...AND DES MOINES RIVERS. THE
MAQUOKETA MAY GET CLOSE. IF NOT FLOODING THEN SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK
RISES TO OCCUR.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
KBRL AREA THEN STORMS INTENSIFYING AND SPREADING NORTHEAST OVER
THE ENTIRE TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT.
MVFR/OCNL IFR CONDS IN THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY TORRENTIAL RAINS.
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES
     MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
     JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-
     WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO
     DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
     WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...12
HYDROLOGY...12
AVIATION...HAASE









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

 1242 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING WERE IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN IA INTO WESTERN IL. THERE WERE ISOLATED
REPORTS OF 5 INCHES IN LINN COUNTY IA. NOW THAT MUCH OF THE AREA
HAS SATURATED SOILS I HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE
THE ENTIRE CWA FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY TONIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE
4 TO 6 INCHES...ESPECIALLY IN TRAINING/REPEATING STORMS. PRECIPITABLE
WATERS WILL BE AT RECORD VALUES FOR SEPTEMBER...ABOUT 2.4 INCHES.
RAINFALL RATES WILL BE EXTREMELY HIGH SO VERY TORRENTIAL RAINS
WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH FOR THIS FLASH
FLOOD EVENT BUT IS LOWER FOR THE SEVERE THREAT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED WET MICROBURSTS DUE TO THE VERY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE
BUT ANY HAIL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. I AM CONCERNED FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO AS THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
BECOMES VERY STRONG EVEN WELL AFTER DARK AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
AND TRACKS TOWARDS LACROSSE WI BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE HRRR MESO MODEL
SUGGESTS ACTIVITY INCREASING IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON THEN
SPREADING NORTHEAST AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...WITH WIDESPREAD STORMS
THEN OCCURRING OVERNIGHT. RIVER FLOODING WILL THEN BECOME A CONCERN
ON TRIBUTARY RIVERS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

A SMALL BUT INTENSE MCS CONTINUES TO PRODUCED REPEAT/TRAINING STORMS
OVER MY CENTRAL CWA...AND HAS PLACED MUCH OF OUR METRO AREAS OF THE
QUAD CITIES/IOWA CITY/MUSCATINE/TIPTON/CEDAR RAPIDS INTO A SITUATION
WHERE FLASH FLOODING IS A DISTINCT RISK NOW AND AGAIN TONIGHT. I
WILL BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MY IOWA COUNTIES NORTHWEST OF
BURLINGTON. NORTHWEST ILLINOIS HAS NOT SEEN DEEP CONVECTION...AND
WILL BE LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

THE HARDEST QUESTION TODAY IS HOW LONG THE CURRENT MCS LASTS.
TONIGHT IS A FLAT OUT GUARANTEED WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE EVENT. SINCE
WE HAVE SEEN 1 TO 4 INCHES ALREADY OVERNIGHT...AND MORE MAY YET
FALL...THERE IS DEFINITELY A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH THIS
WIDESPREAD EVENT TONIGHT. WPC IS FORECASTING A MODERATE RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE/FLASH FLOOD RAINS TONIGHT OVER OUR WESTERN 1/2...THUS A
WATCH IS JUSTIFIED.  SEVERE WEATHER MAY DECREASE AS IT APPROACHES
OUR CWA BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.   THE EVENT FORCING PEAKS BETWEEN
03Z AND 12Z TONIGHT...AND 100 PERCENT POPS ARE BEING USED. A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES SEEMS LIKELY TONIGHT...ON TOP OF THE 1 TO
4+ INCHES THAT HAS FALLEN SO FAR THIS CURRENT NIGHT. FLASH FLOOD
HIGHLIGHTS WILL DOMINATE OUT PRODUCT SUITE TODAY.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL BE OVER THE AREA AT SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY THAT WILL SLOWLY DECAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THE
MORNING HOURS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.

BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL COMBINE
WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR NEW
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AREAS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI AND GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-80 WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT
SEEING NEW STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST.

DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ON THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVENING. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN INTO
THE FAR WESTERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS LIGHT RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH RAIN ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
COOL WITH MOST AREAS NOT GETTING ABOVE 60 DEGREES.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN MODERATING BUT STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
KBRL AREA THEN STORMS INTENSIFYING AND SPREADING NORTHEAST OVER
THE ENTIRE TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT.
MVFR/OCNL IFR CONDS IN THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY TORRENTIAL RAINS.
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES
     MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
     JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-
     WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO
     DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
     WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...HAASE









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 316 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

LATEST RAP 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WAS CROSSING THE
COLORADO ROCKIES AT 18Z. GIVEN THE 18Z VERIFICATION WILL STAY
CLOSE TO THE RAP ON TIMING OF THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AS IT
CROSSES EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS EVENING.
GIVEN LATE DAY INSTABILITY AND LOCATION OF LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD
OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL
EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF WEST KANSAS. BASED ON
THE 21Z TUESDAY AND 00Z WEDNESDAY CAPE AND 0-6KM SHEAR FROM THE
NAM A FEW STORMS LATE TODAY MAY BE SEVERE WITH THE AREA MORE
FAVORABLE FOR HAIL GOLF BALL SIZE OR LARGER ALONG WITH WIND GUST
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A DIGHTON AND
LARNED LINE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE EARLY TONIGHT
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND
A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE AREA THAT
WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT
WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A 700MB +10C TO +13C BAROCLINIC ZONE.
GIVEN THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS THIS FAVORABLE AREA WILL BE
NORTHEAST OF A SYRACUSE TO DODGE CITY THE PRATT LINE. ALSO GIVEN
THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PERIODS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IN THIS AREA AS WELL.

BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS AS THE LOWER LEVELS BEGIN TO
SATURATE. BY 12Z WEDNESDAY THE DEPTH OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
APPROACHES 3000FT WHICH SUPPORTS INSERTING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT DRIZZLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY LATE
MORNING THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE FROM SOUTHWEST
NORTHEAST AND GIVEN SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE
MID 70S BASED ON THE 00Z THURSDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES. FURTHER
NORTH, NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR THE CLOUDS AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES AT 00Z THURSDAY SUGGEST HIGHS ON IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014


THE TREND WILL BE FOR COOLER AND WETTER IN THE VERY EARLY PERIOD
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE
REBOUND BACK TOWARD THE 80S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

ALL THREE MODELS, THE ECMWF, GFS AND NAM INDICATED PRECIPITATION
ALONG A STRONG FRONTOGENETIC ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL AND FAR WESTERN
KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
SPREADING EAST OVER CENTRAL KANSAS FRIDAY MORNING. SOME VARIABILITY
IS EXPECTED AS THE BETTER FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS IS NOT EXPECTED
TO SLIDE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CWA INTO OKLAHOMA, HENCE A BAND OF
HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS COULD FALL SOMEWHERE FROM THE HIGHWAY 54
CORRIDOR NORTHWARD AS THE NAM SUGGESTS. OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD STILL
GET SOME, BUT GENERALLY MUCH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AS THE SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IF NOT A PERIOD OF RAIN. OF
MUCH LONGER DURATION AND IMPACT WILL BE THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS
THROUGH THE AREA, INHIBITING INSOLATION AND ENHANCING COLD
ADVECTION. THE NUMEROUS MODELS AND BLEND SOLUTIONS STRONGLY SUPPORTS
LOW 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAYS.
TEMPERATURES THIS COOL WILL REPRESENT ONLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
RECORD MIN-MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 12TH AT LEAST LOCALLY
AT DDC.

A WARMING TEND WILL BE SLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND PERIOD. THE MEAN
LAYER WILL RETURN TO GENERALLY ZONAL PATTERN BY SUNDAY AFTER THE
LARGE WAVE EXISTS. THE NEXT WAVE WILL NOT BECOME A POTENTIAL IMPACT
UNTIL AROUND LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. THE PATTERN SUGGEST SOUTHWEST
KANSAS COULD BE SPLIT AS FAR AS UPPER DYNAMIC FORCING GOES, WITH
POSSIBLE MCS ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH IN THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE PANHANDLES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z ALONG
AND NORTH OF A GARDEN CITY TO HAYS LINE AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT
WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE ROCKIES AND MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE EARLY
TONIGHT AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THE CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF, HOWEVER GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT
20 TO NEAR 25 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BASED ON BUFR SOUNDINGS CEILINGS
BETWEEN 700 AND 1500FT AGL IS EXPECTED AFTER 09Z AT HAYS AND
BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z AT GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  73  49  65 /  40  10   0  10
GCK  62  73  49  63 /  50  20  10  10
EHA  62  75  52  69 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  64  76  51  67 /  20  10   0  10
HYS  62  68  45  62 /  70  20   0  10
P28  70  78  53  71 /  30  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 205 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

LATEST RAP 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WAS CROSSING THE
COLORADO ROCKIES AT 18Z. GIVEN THE 18Z VERIFICATION WILL STAY
CLOSE TO THE RAP ON TIMING OF THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AS IT
CROSSES EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS EVENING.
GIVEN LATE DAY INSTABILITY AND LOCATION OF LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD
OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL
EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF WEST KANSAS. BASED ON
THE 21Z TUESDAY AND 00Z WEDNESDAY CAPE AND 0-6KM SHEAR FROM THE
NAM A FEW STORMS LATE TODAY MAY BE SEVERE WITH THE AREA MORE
FAVORABLE FOR HAIL GOLF BALL SIZE OR LARGER ALONG WITH WIND GUST
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A DIGHTON AND
LARNED LINE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE EARLY TONIGHT
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND
A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE AREA THAT
WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT
WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A 700MB +10C TO +13C BAROCLINIC ZONE.
GIVEN THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS THIS FAVORABLE AREA WILL BE
NORTHEAST OF A SYRACUSE TO DODGE CITY THE PRATT LINE. ALSO GIVEN
THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PERIODS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IN THIS AREA AS WELL.

BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS AS THE LOWER LEVELS BEGIN TO
SATURATE. BY 12Z WEDNESDAY THE DEPTH OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
APPROACHES 3000FT WHICH SUPPORTS INSERTING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT DRIZZLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY LATE
MORNING THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE FROM SOUTHWEST
NORTHEAST AND GIVEN SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE
MID 70S BASED ON THE 00Z THURSDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES. FURTHER
NORTH, NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR THE CLOUDS AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES AT 00Z THURSDAY SUGGEST HIGHS ON IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

ON WEDNESDAY, WE WILL BE BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES - GENERALLY IN THE 70S. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A REINFORCING SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS QUITE CONSISTENT ON
THIS COLD AIR MASS. FRIDAY LOOKS PARTICULARLY COOL WITH RAIN,
CLOUDS, 20-25 MPH NORTHERLY WINDS, AND TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO
CLIMB OUT OF THE 50S. CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE THEREAFTER AS A LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z ALONG
AND NORTH OF A GARDEN CITY TO HAYS LINE AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT
WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE ROCKIES AND MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE EARLY
TONIGHT AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THE CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF, HOWEVER GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT
20 TO NEAR 25 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BASED ON BUFR SOUNDINGS CEILINGS
BETWEEN 700 AND 1500FT AGL IS EXPECTED AFTER 09Z AT HAYS AND
BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z AT GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  73  49  65 /  40  10   0  10
GCK  62  73  49  63 /  50  20  10  10
EHA  62  75  52  69 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  64  76  51  67 /  20  10   0  10
HYS  62  68  45  62 /  70  20   0  10
P28  70  78  53  71 /  30  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BURGERT




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 347 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH A
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE TAIL OF AN
ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WAS DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SOUTH INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. A VIGOROUS SRN
STREAM SHRTWV MOVING IN THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF
A SFC LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN LAKES WED. EVEN WITH LAKE
BREEZE ONSHORE WINDS INTO WRN UPPER MI...LOW LEVEL CONV HAS NOT BEEN
STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME CAPPING WITH 800-750 MB TEMPS NEAR
12C...PER RUC. OTHERWISE...ABUNDANT CU PREVAILED ACROSS THE WEST
HALF OF UPPER MI WHILE MORE STABLE AIR OFF OF LAKE MI HAS KEPT SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE EAST.

THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH WRN UPPER MI. HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD
LIMITED WITH ONLY LOWER END CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
CAPPING.

AS THE PLAINS SHRTWV MOVES TOWARD THE AREA AND THE SFC LOW
DEEPENS...300-310 ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG WITH 800-600 MB FGEN WILL
STRENGTHEN AND SUPPORT AN EXPANDING AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
FROM NW/N WI INTO WRN UPPER MI BY LATE EVENING AND INTO CNTRL UPPER
MI LATE TONIGHT. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH A COUPLED
UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE AND STRONG QVECTOR CONV WILL SUPPORT A
LARGE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS THE CWA WED. SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS AS THE NAM REMAINS MUCH DEEPER AND FARTHER TO THE NW THAN
MODELS CONSENSUS AND THE GFS FASTER AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN ENVELOPE
OF MODEL SPREAD. FAVORED THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF AND REGIONAL GEM
WITH THE LOW PATH TO NEAR GRB BY 18Z AND THE STRAITS BY 00Z/THU.
VERY STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE INFLOW...UPPER LEVEL AND 800-600 MB FGEN
EVEN WITHOUT TSRA WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY BTWN 09Z-18Z. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE IMPACT OF
UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER IA INTO SRN WI ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
850-700 MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE INFLOW TO THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR QPF IN THE 1.5 INCH TO 2.0 INCH
RANGE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AOA 3 INCHES. SO THE FLOOD WATCH
WILL REMAINS IN EFFECT.

NE WINDS VEERING TO THE NNE WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH GUSTS LIKELY IN
INTO THE 40-50 KNOT RANGE BY TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE
KEWEENAW...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY NNE FLOW SUCH AS
COPPER HARBOR. AN ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS AT 00Z THU. TWO EXTREMES WITH THE
LOW LOCATION/STRENGTH ARE THE 12Z/09 GFS WITH A 997MB SFC LOW NEAR
CENTRAL LAKE HURON AND THE 12Z/09 NAM WITH A 984MB SFC LOW NEAR
MUNISING. HARD TO JUMP ON BOARD WITH EITHER OF THESE TWO EXTREMES
GIVEN WARM SEASON PROCESSES THAT WILL OCCUR IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE LOW...BUT THINK A MIDDLE OF THE GROUND APPROACH IS MORE
REASONABLE. REGARDLESS...STRONG NLY WINDS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE
CWA AT 00Z THU...AND IF THE FARTHER N/STRONGER SOLUTION IS
CORRECT...THE WINDS WOULD BE VERY STRONG. THE HIGH EXTREME OF THE
NAM EVEN HAS 925MB WINDS UP TO 70KTS /POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SFC
GUSTS OF 55-70KTS/ BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z THU...WHICH CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT MORE MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. BY 06Z...EVEN THE NAM
HAS THE LOW E OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH OTHER MODELS FARTHER SE. BY
12Z THU...925MB WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 30KTS...WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING FASTER DURING THE DAY THU. MOST OF THE
PRECIP WED NIGHT INTO THU WILL BE DUE TO WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
UPSLOPE FLOW AND SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO THU EVENING.

THU LOOKS TO BE COLDEST DAY IN A WHILE AREA WIDE AS CLOUDY
CONDITIONS PERSIST BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND 850MB TEMPS WILL BE -2C TO
1C...RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 40S INTERIOR W TO THE
LOW 50S ELSEWHERE...AND THE CONTINUED BREEZY WINDS WILL ONLY MAKE IT
FEEL COOLER.

GIVEN THE COLD TEMPS...THINK BELOW FREEZING MIN TEMPS THU NIGHT LOOK
FAIRLY LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR W...WITH A MORE CONDITIONAL CHANCE
FRI NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER.

NOT SURE ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES FRI INTO FRI INTO SAT AS MODELS POINT
TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE REGION OVER SFC HIGH
PRESSURE. ONLY LOW END POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AS THE ECMWF
IS THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA...THE
OTHER MODELS HAVE A WEAKER WAVE AND LESS MOISTURE. 850MB TEMPS
REMAIN MOSTLY THE SAME THROUGH SAT AT AROUND 0C...BUT CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BE LOWER EACH FRI AND ESPECIALLY SAT...SO HIGHS WILL WARM
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BE SAT.

POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER WAVE ON SUN AND MAYBE YET ANOTHER ON MON AS A
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN CONUS.
EVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP WITH THESE FEATURES AS MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED AS THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE ENERGY IS UNCERTAIN. TEMPS
DO LOOK TO INCREASE BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH IWD/CMX DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NNE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SOME
SHALLOW COOL AIR OFF LAKE SUPERIOR COULD BRING SOME MVFR CLDS INTO THOSE
LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A -SHRA OR PERHAPS
EVEN TS AT MAINLY IWD WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT DURING PEAK
HEATING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A SPECIFIC MENTION. AS
A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES NEWD AND THE MOIST LYR DEEPENS...RAIN
WILL DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE AND CAUSE CONDITIONS AT IWD/CMX TO DROP TO
IFR BY LATE EVENING. SINCE THE FROPA WILL OCCUR LATER AT SAW...THE
TRANSITION TO MVFR WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER IN THE FCST PERIOD. BY
LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
MODERATE TO OCNLY HEAVY RAIN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

THE TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS W LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DRIFT ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE LOW WILL BE OVER E IOWA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE TO PUSH TO NRN LOWER MI BY WED EVENING...BEFORE EXITING
INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. NORTHEAST GALES TO AROUND 40KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR...BEFORE SLOWLY
EXPANDING TO CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
S ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN THURSDAY WILL SINK ACROSS THE N AND
CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE BUILDING A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20KTS
OR LESS.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

RAINFALL TOTALS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS UPPER MI
RANGE FROM JUST OVER 1.5 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WHERE THE HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP. HIGHER TOTALS INTO WED
NIGHT ARE EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS IN N CNTRL UPPER MI WHERE STRONG
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
POSTED FOR MUCH OF W AND CENTRAL UPPER MI.

EXPECT THE TRADITIONAL URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT POSSIBILITY IN THE TYPICAL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS OF ESC IF
A PERIOD OF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS DEVELOP WITH RAINFALL RATES CLOSE TO
AN 0.5-1.0 INCH PER HOUR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ001>006-009>013-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ251-
     267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     LSZ246>250-265-266.

  GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     LSZ243>245-264.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM EDT /1
     AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR LSZ240>242-263.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ TO 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ162.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...JLB






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 315 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WSW SPLIT FLOW
RUNNING ALONG THE CNDN BORDER. A SHRTWV WITHIN THE SRN BRANCH OVER
THE CONUS IS OVER NRN LK MI EARLY THIS MRNG AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR
SOME SPRINKLES THAT IMPACTED MAINLY THE SRN CWA SINCE YDAY AFTN. THE
ARRIVAL OF SOME SHRTWV RDGING/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING
BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE HAS ENDED THESE SPRINKLES...BUT AN AREA OF
SCT-BKN SC...RELATED TO H85 THETA E ADVCTN IN THE SW FLOW BTWN HI
PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A COLD FNT SLIDING SEWD THRU NW ONTARIO/NW
MN...IS MOVING INTO THE WRN CWA. THE COLD FNT TO THE NW IS ATTENDANT
TO A SHRTWV NEAR JAMES BAY THAT IS LIFTING ENEWD WITHIN THE STRONGER
NRN BRANCH FLOW DOMINATING CANADA. SOME SHOWERS/TS ALONG THIS BNDRY
EXTENDED AS FAR AS ABOUT THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER...WHERE THE 00Z INL
RAOB SHOWS AN INVRN ARND H75 THAT IS SUFFICIENT TO CAP ANY
CONVECTION. THIS INVRN IS EVEN SHARPER ON THE MPX RAOB...
STRENGTHENED BY THE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN THE WAKE OF SRN BRANCH
SHRTWV. LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM...THERE IS ANOTHER STRONGER SRN
BRANCH SHRTWV MOVING THRU NEVADA.

MAIN FCST CONCERN FOR TDAY IS WHETHER ANY SHOWERS/TS WL DVLP OVER
MAINLY WRN UPR MI AHEAD OF THE APRCHG COLD FNT FM THE NW. FOCUS FOR
TNGT WL SHIFT TO HOW QUICKLY LARGER AREA OF RA WL ARRIVE FM THE SW
IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING THRU THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

TODAY...WHILE NRN BRANCH SHRTWV NEAR JAMES BAY WL CONTINUE ENEWD
INTO NRN QUEBEC...ATTENDANT COLD FNT IS FCST TO DROP SEWD INTO WRN
UPR MI THIS AFTN BUT THEN SLOW DOWN AS THE H5 FLOW BACKS SW/MORE
PARALLEL WITH THE FNT IN ADVANCE OF ROCKIES SHRTWV MOVING OUT INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE THE SLOWING FNT MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME
SHOWERS/TS IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING...MODELS SHOW BULK OF
THE DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC REMAINING TO THE N OF THE CWA CLOSER TO
LOW HGTS IN ONTARIO. IN THE ABSENCE OF THIS STRONGER LARGER SCALE
FORCING...SUSPECT MID LVL INVRN SHOWN ON THE UPSTREAM 00Z INL/MPX
RAOBS WL PERSIST IN LINE WITH THE GFS FCST SDNGS SHOWING LINGERING
INVRN ARND H75-8 AND LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. SO WL
RETAIN GOING ONLY SCHC POPS OVER MAINLY THE W HALF FOR THE AFTN.
COMBINATION OF INCRSG H85 THETA E OVER THE FAR W TOWARD 00Z AND
ARRIVAL OF STRONGER FORCING IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV FM THE
PLAINS JUSTIFY INCRSG POPS OVER THE FAR W CLOSER TO THAT TIME AS GFS
FCST SDNG FOR IWD SHOWS WEAKENING INVRN TOWARD 00Z. AS FOR TEMPS...A
GOOD DEAL OF SC THAT WL FORM IN THE INCRSGLY MOIST S FLOW AHEAD OF
THE APRCHG FNT AND UNDER INVRN AS WELL AS FLOW OFF LK MI AS SFC
WINDS TEND TO BACK TOWARD THE SSE THRU THE DAY WL LIMIT THE RISE OF
THE MERCURY DESPITE WARM START TO THE DAY. TEMPS OVER THE W ARE
LIKELY TO FALL FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FNT THIS AFTN AND
ARRIVAL OF SHALLOW COOL AIR.

TNGT...SHRTWV IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WL MOVE NE...WITH FAIRLY DEEP
SFC LO ARND 996MB REACHING FAR NE IOWA TOWARD 12Z WED. ARRIVAL OF
SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND UPR DVGC IN ADVANCE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE AND OVER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E/PWAT AT LEAST NEAR
1.5 INCH WL BRING INCRSG POPS TO CATEGORICAL SW-NE...EXCEPT OVER THE
FAR E WHERE THE MORE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER
12Z WED. ALTHOUGH THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP FAVORS SOME HEAVY RA
ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF OVERNGT...THERE ARE A FEW LINGERING
QUESTION MARKS. THE FAVORED 00Z GFS MODEL INDICATES A BAND OF
SHARPER H85-7 FGEN WL SETUP ACRS CENTRAL WI OVERNGT...DISRUPTING
MSTR INFLOW INTO UPR MI. THE 00Z GFS GENERATES NO MORE THAN ABOUT
0.25-0.33 INCH OF RA THRU 12Z. SEVERAL OF THE HIER RES MODELS...
INCLUDING THE 00Z LOCAL WRF-ARW...GENERATE ONLY MINIMAL QPF OVER UPR
MI THRU 12Z WED. THE 00Z CNDN MODEL FOCUSES ITS HEAVIER PCPN TO THE
S OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THAT AXIS OF FGEN SHOWN BY THE GFS. BUT
SINCE THE 00Z NAM...WHICH SHOWS A FARTHER NW TRACK FOR THE SFC LO
AND STRONGER SLY FLOW TO BRING HIER PWAT INTO THE CWA...AND THE 00Z
ECMWF DO PRODUCE GENEROUS RA OVER MAINLY THE W HALF...MADE NO CHG TO
GOING FLOOD WATCH FOR THE 06Z-12Z TIME. OTRW...THE SLOW MOVING COLD
FNT IS FCST TO SLIP ONLY SLOWLY SE THRU THE NGT...SO THE WARMEST
OVERNGT LO TEMPS WL BE OVER THE SE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS AT 00Z THU. TWO EXTREMES WITH THE
LOW LOCATION/STRENGTH ARE THE 12Z/09 GFS WITH A 997MB SFC LOW NEAR
CENTRAL LAKE HURON AND THE 12Z/09 NAM WITH A 984MB SFC LOW NEAR
MUNISING. HARD TO JUMP ON BOARD WITH EITHER OF THESE TWO EXTREMES
GIVEN WARM SEASON PROCESSES THAT WILL OCCUR IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE LOW...BUT THINK A MIDDLE OF THE GROUND APPROACH IS MORE
REASONABLE. REGARDLESS...STRONG NLY WINDS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE
CWA AT 00Z THU...AND IF THE FARTHER N/STRONGER SOLUTION IS
CORRECT...THE WINDS WOULD BE VERY STRONG. THE HIGH EXTREME OF THE
NAM EVEN HAS 925MB WINDS UP TO 70KTS /POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SFC
GUSTS OF 55-70KTS/ BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z THU...WHICH CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT MORE MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. BY 06Z...EVEN THE NAM
HAS THE LOW E OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH OTHER MODELS FARTHER SE. BY
12Z THU...925MB WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 30KTS...WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING FASTER DURING THE DAY THU. MOST OF THE
PRECIP WED NIGHT INTO THU WILL BE DUE TO WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
UPSLOPE FLOW AND SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO THU EVENING.

THU LOOKS TO BE COLDEST DAY IN A WHILE AREA WIDE AS CLOUDY
CONDITIONS PERSIST BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND 850MB TEMPS WILL BE -2C TO
1C...RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 40S INTERIOR W TO THE
LOW 50S ELSEWHERE...AND THE CONTINUED BREEZY WINDS WILL ONLY MAKE IT
FEEL COOLER.

GIVEN THE COLD TEMPS...THINK BELOW FREEZING MIN TEMPS THU NIGHT LOOK
FAIRLY LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR W...WITH A MORE CONDITIONAL CHANCE
FRI NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER.

NOT SURE ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES FRI INTO FRI INTO SAT AS MODELS POINT
TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE REGION OVER SFC HIGH
PRESSURE. ONLY LOW END POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AS THE ECMWF
IS THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA...THE
OTHER MODELS HAVE A WEAKER WAVE AND LESS MOISTURE. 850MB TEMPS
REMAIN MOSTLY THE SAME THROUGH SAT AT AROUND 0C...BUT CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BE LOWER EACH FRI AND ESPECIALLY SAT...SO HIGHS WILL WARM
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BE SAT.

POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER WAVE ON SUN AND MAYBE YET ANOTHER ON MON AS A
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN CONUS.
EVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP WITH THESE FEATURES AS MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED AS THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE ENERGY IS UNCERTAIN. TEMPS
DO LOOK TO INCREASE BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH IWD/CMX DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NNE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SOME
SHALLOW COOL AIR OFF LAKE SUPERIOR COULD BRING SOME MVFR CLDS INTO THOSE
LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A -SHRA OR PERHAPS
EVEN TS AT MAINLY IWD WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT DURING PEAK
HEATING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A SPECIFIC MENTION. AS
A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES NEWD AND THE MOIST LYR DEEPENS...RAIN
WILL DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE AND CAUSE CONDITIONS AT IWD/CMX TO DROP TO
IFR BY LATE EVENING. SINCE THE FROPA WILL OCCUR LATER AT SAW...THE
TRANSITION TO MVFR WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER IN THE FCST PERIOD. BY
LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
MODERATE TO OCNLY HEAVY RAIN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

THE TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS W LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DRIFT ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE NEARS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
LOW WILL BE OVER E IOWA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE TO PUSH
NE OVER E UPPER MI AND N LOWER MI LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
EXITING INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. N GALES TO AROUND 40KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR...BEFORE SLOWLY
EXPANDING TO CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER S ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN
THURSDAY WILL SINK ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE BUILDING
A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20KTS OR LESS.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

RAINFALL TOTALS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS UPPER MI
RANGE FROM JUST OVER 1.5IN TO NEARLY 3IN ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE ENHANCED LOCATIONS OF N CENTRAL
UPPER MI. AN AREAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS POSTED FOR MUCH OF W AND
CENTRAL UPPER MI. MUCH OF THE CWA IS IN THE DAY 2 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL OUTLOOK /SLIGHT RISK/ FOR DAY 2 /12Z WED-12Z THU/. THE
MORNING RIVER FCSTS WILL BE RAN WITH 48HR QPF VALUES...SO IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT REACTION IS EXPECTED. OUR LAST RAIN EVENT
DID NOT DO MUCH AT THE RIVER GAUGE LOCATIONS. RIVERS THAT ARE
RUNNING HIGHER /GENERALLY 1-2FT/ THAN THIS TIME LAST MONTH INCLUDE
THE SOUTH BRANCH OF THE ONTONAGON RIVER AT EWEN...THE FORD RIVER AT
HYDE...THE STURGEON RIVER AT NAHMA JUNCTION...AND THE MANISTIQUE
RIVER AT MANISTIQUE.

AT THIS POINT THE N CENTRAL RFC 3HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS HOVERING
BETWEEN 2-3.5IN...WITH 6HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS CLOSER TO 2.25 TO
OVER 4IN. OF COURSE IT/S VERY TERRAIN AND BASIN SPECIFIC. AS
PREVIOUSLY NOTED...MANY AREAS OF W AND CENTRAL UPPER MI ARE RUNNING
AROUND 2-4IN ABOVE THE 2 WEEK NORMAL PRECIP WISE DUE TO RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL. EXPECT THE TRADITIONAL URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT POSSIBILITY IN THE TYPICAL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS OF ESC IF
RAINFALL IS STEADY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ001>006-009>013-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ251-267.

  GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ243>245-264>266.

  GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR LSZ162-240>242-263.

  GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ248>250.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KF
HYDROLOGY...KF






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 133 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WSW SPLIT FLOW
RUNNING ALONG THE CNDN BORDER. A SHRTWV WITHIN THE SRN BRANCH OVER
THE CONUS IS OVER NRN LK MI EARLY THIS MRNG AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR
SOME SPRINKLES THAT IMPACTED MAINLY THE SRN CWA SINCE YDAY AFTN. THE
ARRIVAL OF SOME SHRTWV RDGING/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING
BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE HAS ENDED THESE SPRINKLES...BUT AN AREA OF
SCT-BKN SC...RELATED TO H85 THETA E ADVCTN IN THE SW FLOW BTWN HI
PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A COLD FNT SLIDING SEWD THRU NW ONTARIO/NW
MN...IS MOVING INTO THE WRN CWA. THE COLD FNT TO THE NW IS ATTENDANT
TO A SHRTWV NEAR JAMES BAY THAT IS LIFTING ENEWD WITHIN THE STRONGER
NRN BRANCH FLOW DOMINATING CANADA. SOME SHOWERS/TS ALONG THIS BNDRY
EXTENDED AS FAR AS ABOUT THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER...WHERE THE 00Z INL
RAOB SHOWS AN INVRN ARND H75 THAT IS SUFFICIENT TO CAP ANY
CONVECTION. THIS INVRN IS EVEN SHARPER ON THE MPX RAOB...
STRENGTHENED BY THE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN THE WAKE OF SRN BRANCH
SHRTWV. LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM...THERE IS ANOTHER STRONGER SRN
BRANCH SHRTWV MOVING THRU NEVADA.

MAIN FCST CONCERN FOR TDAY IS WHETHER ANY SHOWERS/TS WL DVLP OVER
MAINLY WRN UPR MI AHEAD OF THE APRCHG COLD FNT FM THE NW. FOCUS FOR
TNGT WL SHIFT TO HOW QUICKLY LARGER AREA OF RA WL ARRIVE FM THE SW
IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING THRU THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

TODAY...WHILE NRN BRANCH SHRTWV NEAR JAMES BAY WL CONTINUE ENEWD
INTO NRN QUEBEC...ATTENDANT COLD FNT IS FCST TO DROP SEWD INTO WRN
UPR MI THIS AFTN BUT THEN SLOW DOWN AS THE H5 FLOW BACKS SW/MORE
PARALLEL WITH THE FNT IN ADVANCE OF ROCKIES SHRTWV MOVING OUT INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE THE SLOWING FNT MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME
SHOWERS/TS IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING...MODELS SHOW BULK OF
THE DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC REMAINING TO THE N OF THE CWA CLOSER TO
LOW HGTS IN ONTARIO. IN THE ABSENCE OF THIS STRONGER LARGER SCALE
FORCING...SUSPECT MID LVL INVRN SHOWN ON THE UPSTREAM 00Z INL/MPX
RAOBS WL PERSIST IN LINE WITH THE GFS FCST SDNGS SHOWING LINGERING
INVRN ARND H75-8 AND LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. SO WL
RETAIN GOING ONLY SCHC POPS OVER MAINLY THE W HALF FOR THE AFTN.
COMBINATION OF INCRSG H85 THETA E OVER THE FAR W TOWARD 00Z AND
ARRIVAL OF STRONGER FORCING IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV FM THE
PLAINS JUSTIFY INCRSG POPS OVER THE FAR W CLOSER TO THAT TIME AS GFS
FCST SDNG FOR IWD SHOWS WEAKENING INVRN TOWARD 00Z. AS FOR TEMPS...A
GOOD DEAL OF SC THAT WL FORM IN THE INCRSGLY MOIST S FLOW AHEAD OF
THE APRCHG FNT AND UNDER INVRN AS WELL AS FLOW OFF LK MI AS SFC
WINDS TEND TO BACK TOWARD THE SSE THRU THE DAY WL LIMIT THE RISE OF
THE MERCURY DESPITE WARM START TO THE DAY. TEMPS OVER THE W ARE
LIKELY TO FALL FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FNT THIS AFTN AND
ARRIVAL OF SHALLOW COOL AIR.

TNGT...SHRTWV IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WL MOVE NE...WITH FAIRLY DEEP
SFC LO ARND 996MB REACHING FAR NE IOWA TOWARD 12Z WED. ARRIVAL OF
SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND UPR DVGC IN ADVANCE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE AND OVER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E/PWAT AT LEAST NEAR
1.5 INCH WL BRING INCRSG POPS TO CATEGORICAL SW-NE...EXCEPT OVER THE
FAR E WHERE THE MORE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER
12Z WED. ALTHOUGH THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP FAVORS SOME HEAVY RA
ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF OVERNGT...THERE ARE A FEW LINGERING
QUESTION MARKS. THE FAVORED 00Z GFS MODEL INDICATES A BAND OF
SHARPER H85-7 FGEN WL SETUP ACRS CENTRAL WI OVERNGT...DISRUPTING
MSTR INFLOW INTO UPR MI. THE 00Z GFS GENERATES NO MORE THAN ABOUT
0.25-0.33 INCH OF RA THRU 12Z. SEVERAL OF THE HIER RES MODELS...
INCLUDING THE 00Z LOCAL WRF-ARW...GENERATE ONLY MINIMAL QPF OVER UPR
MI THRU 12Z WED. THE 00Z CNDN MODEL FOCUSES ITS HEAVIER PCPN TO THE
S OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THAT AXIS OF FGEN SHOWN BY THE GFS. BUT
SINCE THE 00Z NAM...WHICH SHOWS A FARTHER NW TRACK FOR THE SFC LO
AND STRONGER SLY FLOW TO BRING HIER PWAT INTO THE CWA...AND THE 00Z
ECMWF DO PRODUCE GENEROUS RA OVER MAINLY THE W HALF...MADE NO CHG TO
GOING FLOOD WATCH FOR THE 06Z-12Z TIME. OTRW...THE SLOW MOVING COLD
FNT IS FCST TO SLIP ONLY SLOWLY SE THRU THE NGT...SO THE WARMEST
OVERNGT LO TEMPS WL BE OVER THE SE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 544 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

WINDY AND WET THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...WITH COOL AIR LINGERING
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE COLD AIR...FROST OR
FREEZE CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. SEE THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE ONGOING FLOOD WATCH.

BY 12Z WEDNESDAY STEADY RAIN SHOULD ALREADY BE FALLING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...AS A TROUGH IS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AND DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS NE IA AND FAR SE MN NEARS.

WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE
SFC LOW SHIFTS ACROSS SE UPPER MI AND N LOWER MI. GIVEN THE TRACK OF
THE LOW...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TS WAS KEPT ALONG LAKE MI ON WEDNESDAY.
A FAVORABLE FETCH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ENHANCE N FLOW AND BRING
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE W HALF. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF STRONG WINDS IN THE HWO...WITH
SATURATED SOILS AND STRONG WINDS HITTING LEAFED OUT TREES HAVING A
BETTER CHANCE OF UPROOTING THEM.

THE STRONG WINDS WILL SLOWLY EXPAND OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES ACROSS N LAKE HURON AND EXITS INTO
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. WHILE THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY...OUR FORECAST FOR THIS PRODUCT WILL END
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S AND PLENTY OF RAIN...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED PEOPLE OUT IN THE WATER. LESS OF A SOCIAL
BROADCAST OF THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE LIKELY...AS HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

COOL 850MB TEMPS OF 2 TO -1C AND FAVORABLE ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS GOING INTO THURSDAY. THE INFLUX OF
COLD AIR WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...AS 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM AROUND 11C AT
DAYBREAK WEDNSDAY. VERY COLD AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW
COULD RESULT IN FROST OR FREEZE CONDITIONS NEAR THE WI BORDER LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CANADIAN HIGH SINKS ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL
PLAINS AND BUILDS A RIDGE ACROSS UPPER MI. LINGERING CLOUDS ON NW
FLOW SHOULD KEEP AREAS E OF A LINE FROM MARQUETTE TO ESCANABA FROM
FALLING TOO LOW. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH PW
VALUES WELL BELOW NORMAL WILL HELP TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MI INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH IWD/CMX DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NNE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SOME
SHALLOW COOL AIR OFF LAKE SUPERIOR COULD BRING SOME MVFR CLDS INTO THOSE
LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A -SHRA OR PERHAPS
EVEN TS AT MAINLY IWD WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT DURING PEAK
HEATING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A SPECIFIC MENTION. AS
A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES NEWD AND THE MOIST LYR DEEPENS...RAIN
WILL DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE AND CAUSE CONDITIONS AT IWD/CMX TO DROP TO
IFR BY LATE EVENING. SINCE THE FROPA WILL OCCUR LATER AT SAW...THE
TRANSITION TO MVFR WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER IN THE FCST PERIOD. BY
LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
MODERATE TO OCNLY HEAVY RAIN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

THE TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS W LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DRIFT ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE NEARS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
LOW WILL BE OVER E IOWA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE TO PUSH
NE OVER E UPPER MI AND N LOWER MI LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
EXITING INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. N GALES TO AROUND 40KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR...BEFORE SLOWLY
EXPANDING TO CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER S ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN
THURSDAY WILL SINK ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE BUILDING
A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20KTS OR LESS.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

RAINFALL TOTALS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS UPPER MI
RANGE FROM JUST OVER 1.5IN TO NEARLY 3IN ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE ENHANCED LOCATIONS OF N CENTRAL
UPPER MI. AN AREAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS POSTED FOR MUCH OF W AND
CENTRAL UPPER MI. MUCH OF THE CWA IS IN THE DAY 2 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL OUTLOOK /SLIGHT RISK/ FOR DAY 2 /12Z WED-12Z THU/. THE
MORNING RIVER FCSTS WILL BE RAN WITH 48HR QPF VALUES...SO IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT REACTION IS EXPECTED. OUR LAST RAIN EVENT
DID NOT DO MUCH AT THE RIVER GAUGE LOCATIONS. RIVERS THAT ARE
RUNNING HIGHER /GENERALLY 1-2FT/ THAN THIS TIME LAST MONTH INCLUDE
THE SOUTH BRANCH OF THE ONTONAGON RIVER AT EWEN...THE FORD RIVER AT
HYDE...THE STURGEON RIVER AT NAHMA JUNCTION...AND THE MANISTIQUE
RIVER AT MANISTIQUE.

AT THIS POINT THE N CENTRAL RFC 3HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS HOVERING
BETWEEN 2-3.5IN...WITH 6HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS CLOSER TO 2.25 TO
OVER 4IN. OF COURSE IT/S VERY TERRAIN AND BASIN SPECIFIC. AS
PREVIOUSLY NOTED...MANY AREAS OF W AND CENTRAL UPPER MI ARE RUNNING
AROUND 2-4IN ABOVE THE 2 WEEK NORMAL PRECIP WISE DUE TO RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL. EXPECT THE TRADITIONAL URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT POSSIBILITY IN THE TYPICAL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS OF ESC IF
RAINFALL IS STEADY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
     MIZ001>006-009>013-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ251-267.

  GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ243>245-264>266.

  GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR LSZ162-240>242-263.

  GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ248>250.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KF
HYDROLOGY...KF






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

 1225 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1101 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

Have issued a Flash Flood Watch for generally our northern two rows
of counties as heavy rainfall is expected overnight tonight. Latest
12Z NWP paints a healthy swath of 1-2 inches by tomorrow morning. At
this time it appears the bulk of the the precip will stay along and
north of the MO/IA state line. Isolated storms will continue for
locations mainly north of I-70 through early afternoon before more
organized activity develops between 19-21Z. We are still expecting
the later storms to be strong to severe with hail, straight line
winds and heavy rain the primary threats. If the storms can remain
somewhat discrete there would exist a threat for tornadoes, mainly
north of HWY 36 through early evening as model low level shear
profiles are supportive of rotating storms. The precip should slowly
end from northwest to southeast very late tonight into tomorrow
morning with the passage of a cold front. The exception should be our
far south central and southeast zones where showers and scattered
storms will linger well into the day on Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

Morning radar looks mostly clear across the forecast area, with the
exception of a complex of thunderstorms currently over far eastern
Iowa. This thunderstorm complex is likely in response to a shortwave
mid level trough moving through the mid level flow. Perhaps
augmenting the mid level lift is a fairly weak low level jet around
20 kts at 850 mb. 305 K Theta E surface also indicates a decent
element of isentropic lift associated with this low level jet.
Through the night the complex has been mostly stationary, however
short range convective models indicate that it`ll make a E/SE jaunt
and perhaps clip the far northeastern zones with a few isolated to
scattered thunderstorms for the morning hours. Given that morning
convection should be relegated to the far NE corner of the CWA, have
generally backed off on PoPs for the southern and western fringes of
the CWA, holding off the best chances for rain until the late
afternoon into evening.

The focus then shifts to the afternoon for a potential severe
weather event, mainly north of Interstate 70, and especially north
of Highway 36. Through the day a potent surface trough will deepen
in far western Kansas. As this SFC low deepens a fairly strong
surface pressure gradient will form across eastern Kansas and
western Missouri. This will cause a decent push of warm air to move
northward in the form of a warm front. Currently there is a fairly
strong temperature gradient across northern Kansas and SE Nebraska,
characterized by temperatures in the middle 70s and dew points in
the upper 60s to lower 70s south of the boundary and temperatures in
the lower 60s with much lower dew points north of the boundary.
According to latest HRRR trends and the latest 06z NAM it appears
the warm front today will set up perhaps just north of the KS/NE
border arcing W/SW to E/NE across eastern Nebraska, perhaps just
north of the MO/IA border. Along this boundary there will be
strongly backed surface and low level winds, contributing to strong
wind profile curvature with height. With the good surge of gulf
moisture into the area, along with cooling temperatures aloft, models
currently prog afternoon instability to range between 2000 and 3000
J/Kg of surface based CAPE. One big caveat regarding afternoon
destabilization will be whether mid level clouds and any associated
elevated convection will cause enough cloud cover to mitigate surface
heating. But for now will proceed with the expectation that surface
based convection will be possible later this afternoon and that there
will be ample instability to produce robust updrafts.

As mentioned earlier the warm frontal boundary is expected to set up
just to the north of the forecast area, but that will put the area
in the warm sector with strongly backed surface and low level winds.
Aloft, mid level flow will be SW around 50 kts, causing a good
veering-with-height wind profile. Convection associated with the
boundary and low level jet will have a much better chance to occur
north of HWY 36 across far NE Kansas and SE Nebraska. Helping the
convection form will be a shortwave trough with plenty of mid level
ascent, expected to move across eastern Nebraska. This trough could
cause numerous thunderstorms across eastern Nebraska and western
Iowa, perhaps causing the severe weather event to become less
discreet and more linear with numerous storm interactions. Since the
best lift will take place further north the area will see only a
modest influence from the wave. This will act to mitigate convective
development farther south, toward Interstate 70. There could still be
enough glancing energy to cause an isolated storm or two to form as
far south as I-70, but again the best chances for these storms will
be north of KC metro. Should a storm get going in the area, the
aforementioned instability, along with deep layer shear of around 40
to 50 kts will allow for supercell structures. As the afternoon turns
to evening the low level jet will crank up to around 30 to 40 kts,
which will cause low level wind profiles to veer with height, causing
elongated hodographs. The parameters will be adequate for storms to
be strong to severe, with supercell structures possible, introducing the
possibility for all hazards of severe weather including wind, hail,
and perhaps a tornado or two, mainly north of HWY 36 toward the
KS/NE/IA border area. As storms continue to merge through the night
and cold pools interact, expect one or more bowing segments as the
low level jet veer to the SW overnight. Of concern with any bowing
segments will be forecast low level SRH to be on the order of 300 to
400 J/kg of 0-1 SRH, bringing in the possibility for
mesovortex/enhanced wind along the leading edge of any bowing
segments. This will also bring one or more complexes of thunderstorms
across northern Missouri, perhaps as far south as I-70 through the
overnight hours. The main hazard with this overnight thunderstorm
activity will be heavy rain and perhaps an isolated flooding/flash
flooding threat to far northern Missouri.

Through all this, the synoptic cold front, associated with the
surface low will remain off to the west, and likely won`t make it
into the forecast area until late Tuesday night into early Wednesday
morning. Expect some convection along this front, especially if it
fails to clear the area by the time insolation occurs on Wednesday.
A few storms could be strong, mainly across central and eastern
Missouri, as the front moves through.

The first blast of cool air will settle into the area behind the
cold front, as temperatures through mid to late week will drop to
the 60s and 70s for highs and 40s to 50s for lows. Models then prog
another fairly potent trough to make its way through the area for
the Friday/Sat time period, but with low moisture content in the
atmosphere it will be tough to generate much instability, so any
rain associated with this late-week trough should be light and
non-convective in nature. The second blast of reinforcing cold air
will then push into the area for the weekend, bringing highs 50s and
60s, and lows into the 40s and 50s. Saturday morning, once the
surface high settles into the area behind the cold front,
temperatures across far northern Missouri could drop into the 30s.
For now, not anticipating any frost headlines, but will continue to
monitor, and should FCST temps go into the lower or middle 30s frost
headlines might be needed. By Sunday and Monday the surface high will
be east of the area and southerly return flow will cause a warm up
back toward seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

Thunderstorms are expected to impact the terminals later this
afternoon and overnight tonight. Uncertainty exists as to how long to
keep TSRA in the TAFS, but at this time believe the first of what
should be two rounds of precip was placed in a TEMPO. Will amend TAFs
once storms develop to better time them out. VCTS is very possible
well into the night ahead of a cold front that will slowly move in
from the northwest and produce a quick wind shift out of the northwest
by mid-morning Wednesday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
     morning FOR MOZ001>008-011>017.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pietrycha
DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Pietrycha







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

 1200 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2014

A MCS has been going on across eastern IA and northwestern IL for a
good part of the overnight and the forward flank of it is
propagating slowly east-southeast.  Further south over our region,
southerly surface flow prevailed, and thanks to areas of clouds, are
keeping temps much warmer than where they were 24 hours ago, with
readings hovering near 70 in many locales.

Models not doing a very good job with handling the MCS to our north,
although the HRRR is about the most believable.  The main flow and
Corfidi vectors suggest this MCS will still mainly propagate E-SE
with the main body remaining to the north of our region, but this is
kicking off an outflow and with a weak lo level jet nosing into
northeast MO, cannot rule out some sunrise surprise in the way of
widely scattered TSRA.  The outflow dropping south may further
enable TSRA development into central IL heading deeper into the
morning and remain thru the afternoon, expanding westward into
northern MO.

As the heating of the day kicks in by midday, much of our region to
the west of STL will be in a weak CINH, very high moisture
environment and may be able to fire off isolated to scattered TSRA
during the afternoon.  Rain chances look less likely into southern
IL, depending on how the MCS to the north actually evolves.

Due to all of the dependencies on clouds and rain chances, it will
be hard to get a firm handle on temps today.  A MOS blend looks like
a reasonably good start, with above normal temps for many areas as
readings in the 80s are attained.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2014

Primary concern remains upcoming potential for heavy rain tonight
into Wednesday.  The longwave trof over the western CONUS will
continue to deepen and move east tonight.  The leading edge of the
trof should be out over the eastern Plains by 00Z which will force
lee-side cyclogenesis back over the Colorado/Kansas border.  The low
level jet ahead of the developing low level system system will
increase to 50-60kts resulting in impressive moisture transport from
the southeast.  GFS and NAM both show a tremendous amount of
moisture convergence over northern Missouri/southern Iowa on the
nose of the low level jet tonight.  The exact placement of the
heaviest rain is still in question with the GFS being further south
into our area, and the NAM being further north in Iowa.  A deep
warm-cloud layer and P-wats over 2.3 inches will certainly provide a
rich environment for heavy rain.  However, the SREF seems to agree
more with the NAM, as do the ARW and NMM WRF models.  Will therefore
hold off issuing any flooding headlines and let the day shift take
another look.

Guidance is in decent agreement in pushing the surface front through
the area Wednesday afternoon.  The low level jet ahead of the front
does diminish somewhat, but all models continue to show a 30-50kt
jet through much of the day with moisture convergence continuing
over the area.  Think there will be ongoing precip ahead of the
front, tho areal coverage is somewhat uncertain.  However, any
sunshine should allow for a rapid warm up in southwest flow and
18-20C temperatures at 850mb.  Therefore stuck pretty close to MOS
highs in spite of potential for a lot of cloud cover and rain
through the day.  Storms should form up into a line ahead of the
front in the afternoon and move south of the area by mid-late
evening.  Still think there is a decent chance for some of the
storms to be severe given the strong winds aloft and the possibility
that downdrafts could mix these winds to the surface.

Much cooler air will filter into the area and behind the front for
Thursday.  Temperatures will fall below normal, and are expected to
stay below normal through Monday.  Highs through the period will
mainly be in the mid 60s to around 70 with lows as low as the low to
mid 40s.  This will be 15-20 degrees below normal for
mid-September.  The only significant chance for precipitation beyond
Wednesday evening looks to be on Friday when another shortwave dives
southeast out of the northern Plains across the Midwest.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2014

Scattered convection continues to develop near UIN just northeast
of warm front extending from just north of IRK southeast to just
north of STL. There will likely be more widely scattered
convection this afternoon further south as the atmosphere
destabilizes due to daytime heating which could impact the other
taf sites as well. May include VCTS at the other taf sites with a
tempo group for TSRA in the UIN taf this afternoon. New convective
development is expected tonight as a strong swly low level jet
develops over eastern KS, northwest MO and southwest IA. This will
likely lead to a convective complex which will develop across IA
and drop southeastward into UIN and COU late tonight, then
eventually make it into the St Louis metro area by early morning
as it gradually weakens. S-sely surface winds will continue this
afternoon and tonight, then veer around to a swly direction
Wednesday morning ahead of an approaching cold front.

Specifics for KSTL: There may be isolated to widely scattered
showers/storms late this afternoon as the atmosphere continues to
destabilize due to daytime heating. May include VCTS in the STL
taf late this afternoon. Weakening nocturnal convection will
likely drop southeastward into the STL area Wednesday morning. A
final round of stronger convection should impact STL late
Wednesday afternoon as a strong cold front moves southeastward
through the area. S-sely surface wind can be expected this
afternoon and tonight, then veer around to a swly direction on
Wednesday as a cold front approaches.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

 1122 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1101 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

Have issued a Flash Flood Watch for generally our northern two rows
of counties as heavy rainfall is expected overnight tonight. Latest
12Z NWP paints a healthy swath of 1-2 inches by tomorrow morning. At
this time it appears the bulk of the the precip will stay along and
north of the MO/IA state line. Isolated storms will continue for
locations mainly north of I-70 through early afternoon before more
organized activity develops between 19-21Z. We are still expecting
the later storms to be strong to severe with hail, straight line
winds and heavy rain the primary threats. If the storms can remain
somewhat discrete there would exist a threat for tornadoes, mainly
north of HWY 36 through early evening as model low level shear
profiles are supportive of rotating storms. The precip should slowly
end from northwest to southeast very late tonight into tomorrow
morning with the passage of a cold front. The exception should be our
far south central and southeast zones where showers and scattered
storms will linger well into the day on Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

Morning radar looks mostly clear across the forecast area, with the
exception of a complex of thunderstorms currently over far eastern
Iowa. This thunderstorm complex is likely in response to a shortwave
mid level trough moving through the mid level flow. Perhaps
augmenting the mid level lift is a fairly weak low level jet around
20 kts at 850 mb. 305 K Theta E surface also indicates a decent
element of isentropic lift associated with this low level jet.
Through the night the complex has been mostly stationary, however
short range convective models indicate that it`ll make a E/SE jaunt
and perhaps clip the far northeastern zones with a few isolated to
scattered thunderstorms for the morning hours. Given that morning
convection should be relegated to the far NE corner of the CWA, have
generally backed off on PoPs for the southern and western fringes of
the CWA, holding off the best chances for rain until the late
afternoon into evening.

The focus then shifts to the afternoon for a potential severe
weather event, mainly north of Interstate 70, and especially north
of Highway 36. Through the day a potent surface trough will deepen
in far western Kansas. As this SFC low deepens a fairly strong
surface pressure gradient will form across eastern Kansas and
western Missouri. This will cause a decent push of warm air to move
northward in the form of a warm front. Currently there is a fairly
strong temperature gradient across northern Kansas and SE Nebraska,
characterized by temperatures in the middle 70s and dew points in
the upper 60s to lower 70s south of the boundary and temperatures in
the lower 60s with much lower dew points north of the boundary.
According to latest HRRR trends and the latest 06z NAM it appears
the warm front today will set up perhaps just north of the KS/NE
border arcing W/SW to E/NE across eastern Nebraska, perhaps just
north of the MO/IA border. Along this boundary there will be
strongly backed surface and low level winds, contributing to strong
wind profile curvature with height. With the good surge of gulf
moisture into the area, along with cooling temperatures aloft, models
currently prog afternoon instability to range between 2000 and 3000
J/Kg of surface based CAPE. One big caveat regarding afternoon
destabilization will be whether mid level clouds and any associated
elevated convection will cause enough cloud cover to mitigate surface
heating. But for now will proceed with the expectation that surface
based convection will be possible later this afternoon and that there
will be ample instability to produce robust updrafts.

As mentioned earlier the warm frontal boundary is expected to set up
just to the north of the forecast area, but that will put the area
in the warm sector with strongly backed surface and low level winds.
Aloft, mid level flow will be SW around 50 kts, causing a good
veering-with-height wind profile. Convection associated with the
boundary and low level jet will have a much better chance to occur
north of HWY 36 across far NE Kansas and SE Nebraska. Helping the
convection form will be a shortwave trough with plenty of mid level
ascent, expected to move across eastern Nebraska. This trough could
cause numerous thunderstorms across eastern Nebraska and western
Iowa, perhaps causing the severe weather event to become less
discreet and more linear with numerous storm interactions. Since the
best lift will take place further north the area will see only a
modest influence from the wave. This will act to mitigate convective
development farther south, toward Interstate 70. There could still be
enough glancing energy to cause an isolated storm or two to form as
far south as I-70, but again the best chances for these storms will
be north of KC metro. Should a storm get going in the area, the
aforementioned instability, along with deep layer shear of around 40
to 50 kts will allow for supercell structures. As the afternoon turns
to evening the low level jet will crank up to around 30 to 40 kts,
which will cause low level wind profiles to veer with height, causing
elongated hodographs. The parameters will be adequate for storms to
be strong to severe, with supercell structures possible, introducing the
possibility for all hazards of severe weather including wind, hail,
and perhaps a tornado or two, mainly north of HWY 36 toward the
KS/NE/IA border area. As storms continue to merge through the night
and cold pools interact, expect one or more bowing segments as the
low level jet veer to the SW overnight. Of concern with any bowing
segments will be forecast low level SRH to be on the order of 300 to
400 J/kg of 0-1 SRH, bringing in the possibility for
mesovortex/enhanced wind along the leading edge of any bowing
segments. This will also bring one or more complexes of thunderstorms
across northern Missouri, perhaps as far south as I-70 through the
overnight hours. The main hazard with this overnight thunderstorm
activity will be heavy rain and perhaps an isolated flooding/flash
flooding threat to far northern Missouri.

Through all this, the synoptic cold front, associated with the
surface low will remain off to the west, and likely won`t make it
into the forecast area until late Tuesday night into early Wednesday
morning. Expect some convection along this front, especially if it
fails to clear the area by the time insolation occurs on Wednesday.
A few storms could be strong, mainly across central and eastern
Missouri, as the front moves through.

The first blast of cool air will settle into the area behind the
cold front, as temperatures through mid to late week will drop to
the 60s and 70s for highs and 40s to 50s for lows. Models then prog
another fairly potent trough to make its way through the area for
the Friday/Sat time period, but with low moisture content in the
atmosphere it will be tough to generate much instability, so any
rain associated with this late-week trough should be light and
non-convective in nature. The second blast of reinforcing cold air
will then push into the area for the weekend, bringing highs 50s and
60s, and lows into the 40s and 50s. Saturday morning, once the
surface high settles into the area behind the cold front,
temperatures across far northern Missouri could drop into the 30s.
For now, not anticipating any frost headlines, but will continue to
monitor, and should FCST temps go into the lower or middle 30s frost
headlines might be needed. By Sunday and Monday the surface high will
be east of the area and southerly return flow will cause a warm up
back toward seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 633 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible later this afternoon.
Timing and duration of these storms is a bit uncertain, but this
forecast package indicates the latest thinking regarding that timing.
Expect a period of thunderstorms to move through the terminals later
today, but thunderstorms probably won`t completely be a non-threat to
the terminals through the evening. While a 06z line indicates an end
to the vicinity showers it`s possible that lingering storm activity
will last off and on through the rest of the forecast period. Expect
a frontal passage shortly after the forecast period in this package.
More showers will be possible along that frontal passage.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
     morning FOR MOZ001>008-011>017.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pietrycha
DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

 1216 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

ELEVATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA AND
PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME HAIL THREAT.
LATER...STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA...SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
NEBRASKA MAY BE MORE ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HAVE NOT SEEN
ANY RUNS OF THE HRRR SINCE 12Z...BUT 13KM RAP INCREASES ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL IOWA BY MIDNIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN OVER
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AT THAT TIME.

&&

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

LET DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. EXPECT STORMS TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THE NEXT 6 HOURS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA WHERE VISIBILITIES HAD DROPPED TO ONE QUARTER MILE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND EXTENT OF PRECIP WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM.

PRECIP RATHER SPARSE ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME DUE TO
LIMITED FORCING. A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AT 07Z AND A WARM FRONT FROM CENTRAL IOWA ACROSS NORTHWEST
KANSAS TO LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO. LATEST RAP AND HRRR
INDICATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 12Z AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 18Z AS
MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS AND 850MB FLOW INCREASES
AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. FORCING CONTINUES TO
INCREASE AFTER 18Z AND INTO THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES
WITH HIGHER POPS SPREADING INTO THE CWA AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND MOVES INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 06Z BUT SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS UPPER WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

COLDER AIR FOLLOWS BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME RECORD LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

COLD TEMPERATURES LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WARMER AIR COMING
BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

LOOK FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR LOWER WITH TSTMS THEN
TRENDING TOWARD IFR AFTER WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH. DID KEEP SOME
WIND GUSTS IN TAFS AND MAY ADD HAIL IF THINGS TREND THAT WAY.

CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY EARLY AFTN WED.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 1232 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LINGERING FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL FINALLY PUSH WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT...WITH DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
LATE WEEK...DRIFTING SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BEHIND SCHEDULE. WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A FAIRLY SOLID
OVERCAST I HAVE TRIMMED BACK FORECAST HIGHS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES
IN MOST AREAS...WITH UPPER 70S EXPECTED EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE SC
PEE DEE REGION WHERE 80-82 MAY STILL OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1000 AM
FOLLOWS...

LOW PRESSURE HAS JUST MOVED OFF THE NORTHERNMOST OUTER BANKS WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO JUST OFF OUR PORTION OF THE COAST.
WINDS AT THE BEACHES ARE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND VEER AROUND THE NORTH
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF LOW
CLOUDS BLANKETING ALL OF THE CAROLINAS...AND HOW THE BEHAVIOR OF
THESE CLOUDS WILL DETERMINE VIRTUALLY EVERY FORECAST PARAMETER IN
TODAY`S FORECAST.

12Z SOUNDINGS FROM MHX AND GSO WERE NOT TOO DISSIMILAR FROM 06Z
MODEL SOUNDINGS VALID AT 12Z. AT GREENSBORO CLOUDS EXTENDED UP TO
AROUND 3500 FT WITH SUBSTANTIAL DRYING BEGINNING AT 6200 FT. THIS
DRYING ALOFT IS EVEN DISCERNIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AT MHX THE
ENTIRE SOUNDING WAS MUCH MORE MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL
OVER 2 INCHES. SINCE THERE WILL BE NO SUBSTANTIAL ADVECTION OF DRY
AIR WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY ANY HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROBABLY JUST CREATE CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT
WILL FILL IN ANY HOLES THAT LET THE SUN THROUGH IN THE FIRST PLACE.
FOR THIS REASON MY SKY COVER FORECAST IS FOR CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE AROUND 80 ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA TO
THE LOWER 80S FROM DILLON...CONWAY TO MYRTLE BEACH. FARTHER INLAND
ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION IT REMAINS POSSIBLE HIGHS COULD REACH
83-84 BUT THAT`S GOING TO TAKE SEVERAL HOURS OF THIN SPOTS IN THE
CLOUD COVER TO ACHIEVE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR QUITE LOW THROUGH THE DAY. RADAR SHOWS
NO CURRENT ACTIVITY ON LAND AND THE AMOUNT OF HEATING EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD NOT BE ABLE TO PUT CONVECTIVE CLOUDS UP THROUGH A
CONVECTIVE CAP BETWEEN 6000-9000 FEET. THE HRRR MAY HAVE THE RIGHT
IDEA WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES FALLING FROM TOWERING CUMULUS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW AND A DISSIPATING
SURFACE HIGH ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A DRY DAY WITH NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ON THURSDAY THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND A SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING OF THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BOOST THE AFTERNOON
WARMTH AS WELL SLIGHTLY MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
MOST PLACES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE SHOULD WARM INTO THE
LOW 90S. THE MORE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO DAYS WILL BE
THE AFTERNOON APPARENT TEMPERATURES.ON WEDNESDAY MOST PLACES WILL
TOP OUT AROUND 90 DEGREES BUT AS THE DEWPOINTS RISE THURSDAY THE
HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S. BOTH DAYS THIS EFFECT WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY TAPERED ALONG THE COAST. MODELS TRENDING A BIT FASTER
WITH MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT ESP THE GFS. WILL PUT
LOW POPS IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND MAY
TAKE A FULL 24 HOURS TO THEN BE ORIENTED RIGHT ALONG THE COAST LINE.
THIS SHOULD KEEP THINGS QUITE UNSETTLED FRIDAY AND PROBABLY SATURDAY
AS WELL. MODELS CANNOT SEEM TO DECIDE WHERE THE CORE OF THE COOL AIR
GOES HOWEVER. NORMALLY IN EARLY SEPTEMBER THIS ISN`T TOO BIG A DEAL
AS COOL FRONTS USUALLY JUST REPRESENT A DROP IN HUMIDITY THIS FAR
SOUTH. HOWEVER THIS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SOME CONSIDERABLY COOLER
AND DRIER AIR AND THE GFS IN PARTICULAR IS NOW HESITANT TO SHOVE IT
THIS FAR SOUTH. INSTEAD THE MODEL KEEPS THE SECONDARY FRONT...THE
MUCH COOLER AIR...OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WHILE THE LEADING AND
MUCH WEAKER FRONT MEANDERS AND WEAKENS NEAR THE COAST FOR THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. THE ADDED CLOUD COVER THAT THE FRONT WOULD YIELD
WOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN AND THERE WILL STILL BE AN AIRMASS CHANGE FROM
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TO BE SURE...BUT I`M NO LONGER CERTAIN WE`RE
IN FOR A `REFRESHING` AIRMASS THAT WE NORMALLY EXPERIENCE MUCH LATER
IN THE MONTH OR EVEN OCTOBER. A GLANCE AT THE NEW 00Z ECMWF WOULD
IMPLY THAT THE LATE PERIOD COOL DOWN WHILE STILL PRESENT...MAY NOT
BE VERY NOTEWORTHY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO RISE. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RISE...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL NOT OCCUR AT KFLO UNTIL 19-21Z...AND
KLBT 22-00Z. MVFR CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR FOR AWHILE THIS EVENING AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS...BUT MVFR CIGS POTENTIALLY COULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE NW-N AT KFLO/KLBT THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS WINDS WILL BE W-NW...EXCEPT
BECOMING SW AT KCRE/KMYR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT/VRBL THIS EVENING ALL TERMINALS.

THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT
POTENTIAL LOW CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSOLATION. EXPECT EITHER MVFR
CIGS AND/OR VSBYS OVERNIGHT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS WHERE CLOUD
COVER IS POTENTIALLY THE GREATEST. IFR OR LOWER VSBYS ARE MORE
LIKELY OCCUR AT KFLO/KLBT...WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE LIFR AT KFLO.
ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND
13Z...ALTHOUGH TEMPO MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS THROUGH LATE MORNING. LIGHT NE WINDS EXPECTED EARLY
BECOMING LGT/VRBL.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT NEARS THE
CAROLINAS. SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...MAINLY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER INLAND I HAVE
REMOVED THE POTENTIAL FOR AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE FROM THE WIND
FORECASTS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...STRONGEST NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WHERE BEACH
OBSERVATIONS AND OFFSHORE BUOYS ARE STILL SHOWING GUSTS AS HIGH AS
17 KNOTS WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1000 AM FOLLOWS...

THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ALONG THE BEACHES. WIND SPEEDS
ARE HIGHEST NORTH OF CAPE FEAR (UP TO 15 KNOTS) BUT ARE GENERALLY 10
KNOTS OR LESS SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. LOW PRESSURE IS JUST EAST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST OUTER BANKS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY. RADAR SHOWS ONLY SOME SPRINKLES SOUTH
OF GEORGETOWN WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS
40 MILES AND FARTHER OFFSHORE.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY THE FRONT SHOULD STALL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS WITH LIGHT GENERALLY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED. WHERE INLAND
AIR TEMPERATURES CAN REACH THE LOWER 80S OR BETTER (MAINLY SOUTH
CAROLINA) NEARSHORE WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BACK MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OR
SOUTHERLY WITH A VERY WEAK SEABREEZE FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...WIND AND SEAS BOTH MINIMAL ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER THE LANDMASS WEDNESDAY WASHES OUT AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. NE FLOW TO START THE DAY WILL GIVE TO WAY LIGHT AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW POSSIBLY EVEN DOMINATED BY MESOSCALE SEA
BREEZE AT LEAST NEAR THE SHORELINE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH ALSO STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT. NOT
LOOKING FOR SEAS TO INCREASE AS A RESULT OF THE NEW FLOW REGIME ON
ACCOUNT OF HOW WEAK WIND SPEEDS STAY PLUS THE FACT THAT NO
SIGNIFICANT SWELL ENERGY FOUND ANYWHERE OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY ALBEIT VERY SLOWLY. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE GRADIENT FLOW
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND NOT MUCH BEHIND IT EITHER. IT WILL STALL
RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE EARLY SATURDAY AND MAY EVEN DRIFT A BIT
INLAND AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THIS KEEPS A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE
FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS HARD-PRESSED TO EXCEED 10
KT. THERE MAY BE VACILLATIONS IN DIRECTION OF THE SRLY FLOW FROM SE
TO SW AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WITH SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS. WITH SUCH LIGHT WINDS AND NO SWELL ENERGY TO SPEAK OF
SEAS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL, CAPPED AT 2 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NCZ107.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 1155 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

REMOVED THUNDERSTORM WORDING FROM THE MORNING FORECAST AS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS MELLOWED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE NEXT
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING IF ANY FROST HEADLINES WILL
BE NEEDED TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE UPDATED FIRST-PERIOD PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 957 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM WORDING THIS MORNING
AS SOME ACTIVITY IN THE AREA HAS PRODUCED A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
TWO IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. MAINLY A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT. THICK CLOUD
COVER COMBINED WITH TURBULENT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT
TEMPERATURES FROM COOLING MUCH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...NEAR-SURFACE
COLD AIR ADVECTION COULD OVERCOME THE CLOUDS/WINDS AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...MAINLY OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA PROXIMATE TO THE CENTER OF COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS
CENTERED OVER ALBERTA. SHOULD BE ABLE TO DECIDE ON WHETHER FROST
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT AFTER THE LATEST MODEL SUITE
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...AND RECENTLY OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
LATEST 10 UTC RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME SOME SLIGHT
ELEVATED CAPE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THUS WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES TODAY COMPARED TO MONDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX AND
AREAS OF FROST LATE TONIGHT WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL.

CURRENTLY...ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH CAA
STRATUS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA. LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
BLACK HILLS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH OVERRUNNING FLOW
TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG TO SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES THROUGH 12Z.

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN MOST LOCATIONS.
WILL SEE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
AS MID LEVEL ENERGY INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS ARE
ALSO FAVORING THE NORTHWEST NEAR UPPER JET INDUCED FORCING.

WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF SNOW NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WHEN CAA BRINGS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A CHANGE IN
PRECIPITATION PHASE. SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY RAIN.

LINGERING CLOUD COVER LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WHILE I KEPT FROST IN THE FORECAST WEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL...WILL HOLD ON ISSUING ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE AND LET THE DAY SHIFT DIGEST HOPEFULLY NEWER AND BETTER
MODEL DATA. IT DOES APPEAR THE NORTH CENTRAL HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL
TO CLEAR LATER TONIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE FROST/FREEZE
POSSIBILITIES...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TYPES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THEN FROST/FREEZE POSSIBILITIES AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN
THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE
SOUTHEAST CWA...WHILE THE FORCING AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
KEPT A MENTION OF A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WEDNESDAY
MORNING OVER THE NORTHWEST...WITH AREAS OF FROST IN THE WEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS THE DEEPEST WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND EVEN DEVELOPS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THURSDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION THAN
THE REMAINING DETERMINISTIC MODELS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. MOST MODELS KEEP THE CWA DRY EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE FAR
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE UTILIZED A BLEND HERE...KEEPING AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AND
CENTRAL. BUT KEEPING ONLY CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER BIG PROBLEM WILL BE
WHERE TO MENTION FROST. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...THERE SHOULD BE
MUCH MORE CLOUD COVER...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST.
HOWEVER...THE ALTERNATIVE SOLUTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE
WIDESPREAD FROST. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FROST
HIGHLIGHTS THIS MORNING BUT WILL CONTINUE THE SPS ISSUED PREVIOUSLY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IS SHAPING UP TO BE ANOTHER COLD
MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE WEST AND NORTH. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE FREEZE HEADLINES...BUT WOULD NOT ISSUE ANYTHING THIS FAR
OUT. THUS WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF FROST IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST
WITH HAZARDS MENTIONED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BEYOND FRIDAY...IT LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE FIRST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER KISN-KMOT-KBIS-KJMS THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER KDIK
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD. SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR TIMING DETAILS WITH REGARDS
TO FLIGHT RULES IMPROVING TO VFR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TM




FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE



 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA...WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS EMERGING INTO WESTERN KANSAS.  AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DROPPED A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN OVER
WAUSAU EARLIER THIS MORNING WITHIN A MODEST MOISTURE AXIS BUT
DIMINISHED BY MIDDAY.  OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
SO FAR TODAY.  THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO EXPAND OVER
NEBRASKA AND IOWA IN AN AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT 850MB.  AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND THE LLJ MATURES THIS EVENING...THIS AREA
WILL DRAW ATTENTION FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY
RAIN DOWNSTREAM OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT.
ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.
AS THESE SYSTEMS MOVE EAST...SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...FOLLOWED THE ECMWF AND SREF FOR THE DETAILS OF THIS
FORECAST...WHICH IS PREFERRED BY HPC AND SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS.  THESE MODELS SHOW THAT THE STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SAG SOUTH INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AHEAD OF THIS LOW...MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE BACKING WHILE INCREASING
AT THE SAME TIME...LEADING TO INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE
PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6-7 C/KM THROUGH THE
EVENING.  WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING BY LATE IN THE EVENING. THIS ALL POINTS TO INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING.  PRECIP MAY BE MORE OF THE SCATTERED VARIETY DURING THE
EVENING...BUT THE MAIN SHOW LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.  AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARDS FAR NORTHEAST IOWA OR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN...THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL IMPINGE ON CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  OUTSTANDING MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ADVECT IN
PWATS GREATER THAN 2 INCHES WHILE STRONG MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL BE
FOCUSED ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL PEAK
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...SO SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO REACH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF IOWA.  BUT
INSTABILITY RAPIDLY WANES AFTER MIDNIGHT...LEAVING HEAVY RAINFALL AS
THE MAIN HAZARD.  ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD FALL ON THE
NOSE OF THE LLJ WHICH IS PROJECTED TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. 1.5 TO 2.5
INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE COAST LINE OF
EAST-CENTRAL OR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN BY 18Z WED.  THE HEAVIEST OF
RAIN WILL BE ONGOING ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ OVER NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.  LOOKING FOR THE SAME MAGNITUDE OF AMOUNTS IN THIS REGION
COMPARED TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN...1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.  THE HEAVY RAIN WILL PULL OUT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM DRAWS IN MUCH COLDER AIR INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
PRESENT TOMORROW...RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER
70S SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

COOLER TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND PCPN CHANCES WILL BE THE FOCUS
DURING THIS PERIOD.

REMAINING SHOWERS FROM THE STRONG WEDNESDAY SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO
THE NORTHEAST BUT SMALL SHOWER CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY OVER
THE NORTH DUE TO CAA INSTABILITY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. BLUSTERY
NORTH WINDS WILL BRING A FEEL OF FALL TO THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SETTLED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SUBTLE CAA CONTINUING. SOME POTENTIAL OF FROST
FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTH BUT WILL DEPEND ON DIMINISHING WINDS
AND CLOUDS. CLOUDS MAY ALREADY BE ON THE INCREASE WITH THE
APPROACH OF A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH OR CLOSED UPPER LOW
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA
WHICH WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND TO PROVIDE MORE CHANCES OF FROST...AND POSSIBLE
HEADLINES. AGAIN WINDS MAY BE AN ISSUE SINCE THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH SLIDES INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS SATURDAY NIGHT.

RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING MODERATING WARMER TEMPS INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A
POSSIBLE FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST TO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.  AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT AND SURFACE LOW...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...STARTING OUT IN NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...AND THEN REACHING NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT.  A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SURGE
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF LOW OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH
COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...IN ADDITION WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN.  LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT RHI AND AUW/CWA AND POSSIBLY
GRB/ATW/MTW OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.  IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

WHILE A SOAKING RAIN OF 1.00 TO 1.50 IS EXPECTED FOR
ALL LOCATIONS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST
WITH DETERMINING THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL DUE TO THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW. ECMWF TRACKS PLACES THE MAX OF 2-3 INCHES OVER
CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...NAM MUCH FURTHER NORTH WHILE THE
GEM AND MAV FOCUS OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE STATE INCLUDING
BRUSHING PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. TO COMPLICATE THE
SITUATION...RADAR TRENDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOWING SOME SPLIT
IN THE RAIN REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN REGION OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
SOUTHWEST IOWA IS THE PRIMARY REGION OF CONCERN AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF LATER NIGHT HEADLINES. REGARDLESS...THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA STARTING LATE THIS EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-
073-074.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MPC
HYDROLOGY......TDH